structural decomposition analysis of sources of decarbonizing economic development in china 1992 2006 abstract to analyze and understand decarbonizing economic development in china this paper undertakes a structural decomposition analysis of the historical change in energy related carbon intensity in china between 1992 and 2006 the results show that the energy related carbon intensity in china decreased by about three fourths between 1992 and 2006 and reduced carbon emissions by about two billion tons the decline in the energy related carbon intensity was mainly caused by changes in production pattern especially changes in energy intensity within each sector between 1992 and 2002 however the most important driving force of carbon intensity from 2002 2006 was not the energy intensity within each sector but the input mix on the other hand changes in demand pattern pushed up the carbon intensity to further decarbonize the economy in the future it is important for china to further enforce policies on shaping the production pattern such as reducing energy intensity and pay more attention to increasing the sustainability of the demand pattern at the same time

supply side structural effect on carbon emissions in china abstract this paper carries out a structural decomposition analysis sda of production related carbon emissions in china from 1992 to 2005 by adopting the ghosh input output model it finds that the supply side structure measured by sectoral shares in value added increased production related carbon emissions in 1992 2002 mainly due to the rapid growth of manufacturing sectors but reduced them in 2002 2005 thanks to the decreased shares of carbon intensive sectors whatever the supply side structure forward carbon multipliers of each sector or changes in supply side sectoral shares and related emissions effects calculated by adopting the ghosh input output model were different from their demand side counterparts estimated by adopting the leontief input output model the results suggest optimizing the supply side structure and lowering the forward carbon multipliers to control carbon emissions in the future

comparing structural decomposition analysis and index to analyze and understand historical changes in economic environmental employment or other socio economic indicators it is useful to assess the driving forces or determinants that underlie these changes two techniques for decomposing indicator changes at the sector level are structural decomposition analysis sda and index decomposition analysis ida for example sda and ida have been used to analyze changes in indicators such as energy use co2 emissions labor demand and value added the changes in these variables are decomposed into determinants such as technological demand and structural effects sda uses information from input output tables while ida uses aggregate data at the sector level the two methods have developed quite independently which has resulted in each method being characterized by specific unique techniques and approaches this paper has three aims first the similarities and differences between the two approaches are summarized second the possibility of transferring specific techniques and indices is explored finally a numerical example is used to illustrate differences between the two approaches

impact of household consumption on co2 emissions danish household consumption increased by 58 over the period 1966 1992 while co2 emissions only increased by 7 using decomposition analysis we investigated the global co2 impact of danish household consumption from 1966 to 1992 our conclusion is that overall growth in private consumption but not changes in the composition of consumption is the key to understanding the increase in co2 emissions however the effect of growth in private consumption has been partly offset by substantial energy conservation in the energy supply and manufacturing sectors

promises and pitfalls in environmentally extended input output analysis for china a survey of the literature abstract as the world s largest developing economy china plays a key role in global climate change and other environmental impacts of international concern environmentally extended input output analysis ee ioa is an important and insightful tool seeing widespread use in studying large scale environmental impacts in china calculating and analyzing greenhouse gas emissions carbon and water footprints pollution and embodied energy this paper surveys the published articles regarding ee ioa for china in peer reviewed journals and provides a comprehensive and quantitative overview of the body of literature examining the research impact environmental issues addressed and data utilized the paper further includes a discussion of the shortcomings in official chinese data and of the potential means to move beyond its inherent limitations

what drives intersectoral co2 emissions in china abstract aiming to identify the intersectoral linkage of larger co2 emissions sectors this paper studies the co2 emissions elasticity of technical and final demand coefficients using the input output technique the results show that the greatest emission coefficient elasticities are those related to transactions between construction and manufacture of non metallic mineral products between gross fixed capital formation and construction and between agriculture and processing and manufacture of food and production and supply of electric power and heat power and mining and washing of coal all these transactions between these sectors imply that co2 emissions control policy only for a specific sector maybe have no obvious co2 emissions mitigations if national government promote the growth of those sectors which have the biggest emission coefficient sensitivity with it now chinese government formulates the policy to promote new type urbanization urbanization will cause the gross fixed capital formation in construction and the more demands for the products of manufacture of non metallic mineral products production smelting and pressing of ferrous metals and supply of electric power and heat power so how to balance the carbon emissions in larger emissions sectors and rapid urbanization is a big challenge for decision makers

sector decomposition of china s national economic carbon emissions and its policy implication for national ets development abstract uncovering the contributions of each sector s driving factors to the growth of national economic carbon emissions has great significance for china in developing its nationwide emission trading scheme ets the paper applies the index decomposition analysis ida and logarithmic mean divisia index lmdi model to discuss the underlying drivers behind china s national economic carbon emissions during the period 1996 2012 from both sector and factor decomposition perspectives and accordingly offers policy proposals for china s national ets development major conclusions include 1 six heavy industry sectors the transport storage post sector and the construction sector are the largest contributors and hence proposed for incorporation into the ets s coverage 2 the rapid expansion of economic output dominantly increases carbon emissions the design of cap on emissions should allow for a proper increment and establish a new entrant reserve to coordinate economic development 3 as the dynamics of carbon emissions vary markedly across sectors allowance allocation needs to consider the changing sectoral structure of emissions 4 the combined effects of sectoral energy intensity and structure changes largely offset carbon emissions benchmarking is suggested as an ideal allocation mechanism and the setup of sectoral carbon intensity benchmark should synthetically evaluate the potential impacts of related factors 5 manufacturer based manner and carbon offset mechanism are respectively recommended for the initial implementation of carbon trading in the transport storage post sector and the construction sector

the effects of direct trade within china on regional and national co2 emissions curbing national carbon emissions and clarifying regional carbon reduction responsibility are two challenges faced by china both of which are influenced by interregional trade to exclude the influence of trade balance this paper proposes a methodology to parcel the pollution haven hypothesis into a multi regional input output model applies it to a longer time gap which is made up of two representative periods of chinese economy 1997 2002 and 2002 2007 and clarifies the provincial and sectoral contributions to national emissions we find that 1 embodied co2 emissions first remain relatively stable and then increase sharply for the two periods and the changing trends are mainly determined by the decreasing carbon intensity and the expanding trade scale respectively 2 with the secondary industry as the main contributor regional carbon spillover is mainly concentrated in the coastal provinces but it contributes to an increase of co2 emissions in the central and western regions 3 the coastal and inland provinces contribute to the increase of national carbon emissions through interregional imports and exports respectively but the pollution haven hypothesis is not obvious and is only observed in 2002

decoupling the lock in effect between economic growth and co2 emissions by structure adjustment a final demand perspective abstract this study incorporates demand emission sensitivity into a programming model to explore the issue of decoupling the lock in effect between economic growth and co2 emissions through structure adjustment from a final demand perspective as a demonstration the proposed methodology is applied to data from china for the year 2012 the most relevant productive linkages and the most sensitive components of final demand in terms of co2 emissions were identified the results indicate that to formulate better carbon mitigation policies we should pay more attention to the main internal linkages in terms of co2 emissions within the economy

carbon dioxide mitigation target of china in 2020 and key economic sectors china proposed a co2 mitigation target in 2020 to deal with anthropogenic global climate change chinese policy makers mainly focus on three factors comprising consumption structure changes energy technology development and new energy increments in addition sectoral co2 reduction is increasingly concerned in the world thus it is significant to investigate integrated impacts of three factors to china s co2 mitigation target as well as to identify key economic sectors for achieving this target in this study energy demand and co2 emission in 2020 are predicted five scenarios are generated to illustrate the contributions of three factors in addition twelve key economic sectors for reducing energy demand and co2 emission are identified from both production and final demand perspectives under integrated impacts of three factors china s co2 intensity per unit gross domestic product in 2020 will decrease by about 43 9 in 2020 than 2005 level in the short term china s co2 mitigation will be highly dependent on energy technology development in the long term it will mainly rely on reshaped consumption structure changes and new energy development in addition china s future policies should focus on 12 identified key economic sectors

global warming agreements international trade and energy carbon embodiments an input output approach to the italian case abstract in the kyoto protocol the absence of green house gases ghgs commitments of developing countries non annex i and the more flexible terms of implementation which are allowed to countries shifting toward a market economy transition economies naturally lead to the absence or to less constraining national measures and policies of reduction of the ghgs emissions which in turn may determine a comparative advantage in the production of the highest energy carbon intensive commodities for these countries these arguments are valid also considering the future implementation of the european emission allowance trading scheme eats thus developing countries may become a haven for the production of not environmental friendly commodities in this case the so called pollution haven hypothesis stating that due to freer international trade the comparative advantage may change the economic structure and consequently the trade patterns of the countries linked by trade relationships could occur this would lead to the increase of the transfers of energy and carbon embodied in traded commodities from developing countries and transition economies toward kyoto or eats constrained countries the aim of this paper is to verify if for italy as a kyoto and eats complying country evidence of a change in the trade patterns occurred on the basis of the pollution haven hypothesis does exist and to estimate the magnitude of the under estimation of the carbon actually emitted the carbon leakage the input output model has been used to calculate the intensities of energy consumption and the related green house gases emission for each italian economic sector

china s inter regional spillover of carbon emissions and domestic supply chains in this study we apply the inter regional input output model to explain the relationship between china s inter regional spillover of co2 emissions and domestic supply chains for 2002 and 2007 based on this model we propose alternative indicators such as the trade in co2 emissions co2 emissions in trade and the regional trade balances of co2 emissions our results do not only reveal the nature and significance of inter regional environmental spillover within china s domestic regions but also demonstrate how co2 emissions are created and distributed across regions via domestic and global production networks results show that a region sc o2 emissions depend on its intra regional production technology energy use efficiency as well as its position and participation degree in domestic and global supply chains 2013 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

energy and carbon embodied in the international trade of brazil an input output approach abstract all goods and services produced in an economy are directly and or indirectly associated with energy use and according to the type of fuel utilized with co2 emissions as well international trade is an important factor in shaping the industrial structure of a country and consequently in affecting a country s energy use and co2 emissions this study applies input output techniques to the brazilian economy to evaluate the total impacts of international trade on its energy use and co2 emissions a commodity by industry io model in hybrid units energy commodities in physical units and non energy commodities in monetary units is applied to the brazilian economy in 1995 results show that total energy embodied in the exports of non energy goods of brazil equals 831 pj while total carbon embodied is 13 5 mtc these amounts are larger than the relevant amounts embodied in the imports of non energy goods respectively 679 pj and 9 9 mtc these figures are better understood by contrasting them with the total energy use and the corresponding total carbon emissions of the brazilian economy in 1995 estimated by this work 6781 pj and 99 4 mtc respectively this means that international inflows and outflows of energy embodied in non energy goods are in the order of 10 and 12 of the total energy use while inflows and outflows of carbon embodied in non energy goods are approximately 10 and 14 of the corresponding total carbon emissions of the brazilian economy in 1995 the general picture is that brazil is not only a net exporter of energy 153 pj and of carbon 3 6 mtc embodied in the non energy goods internationally traded by the country in 1995 but also that each dollar earned with exports embodied 40 more energy and 56 more carbon than each dollar spent on imports these findings suggest that brazilian policy makers should be concerned about the extra impacts international trade policy may have on energy use and carbon emissions of the country

changes in carbon intensity in china empirical findings from 1980 2003 china experienced sustainable rapid economic growth over the period 1980 2003 but at the same time energy related carbon intensity showed a downward trend it begs the question therefore what factors were driving this decline in carbon intensity and will this decline be maintained in future moreover what measures can be adopted to ensure a continual decline in carbon intensity these questions led to increased research in the factors governing co2 emission in china this paper quantifies the driving force behind china s primary energy related carbon intensity and measures the material production sectors final energy related carbon intensity our results show that the overwhelming contributor to the decline of energy related carbon intensity was the reduction in real energy intensity however policies that focus only on the decline in energy intensity are insufficient to further decrease carbon intensity the change of primary energy mix can improve the decline of carbon intensity this should focus on the material production sectors development strategies and final energy use greater emphasis should be given to secondary industry which needs national and regional governments policy support

revisiting drivers of energy intensity in china during 1997 2007 a structural decomposition analysis the decline of china s energy intensity slowed since 2000 during 2002 2005 it actually increased reversing the long term trend therefore it is important to identify drivers of the fluctuation of energy intensity we use input output structural decomposition analysis to investigate the contributions of changes in energy mix sectoral energy efficiency production structure final demand structure and final demand category composition to china s energy intensity fluctuation during 1997 2007 we include household energy consumption in the study by closing the input output model with respect to households results show that sectoral energy efficiency improvements contribute the most to the energy intensity decline during 1997 2007 the increase in china s energy intensity during 2002 2007 is instead explained by changes in final demand composition and production structure changes in final demand composition are mainly due to increasing share of exports while changes in production structure mainly arise from the shift of chinese economy to more energy intensive industries changes in energy mix and final demand structure contribute little to china s energy intensity fluctuation from the consumption perspective growing exports of energy intensive products and increasing infrastructure demands explain the majority of energy intensity increase during 2002 2007

scale technique and composition effects in trade related carbon emissions in china this study applies structural decomposition analysis to evaluate the scale composition and technique effects of trade related carbon emissions in china mainland from 1987 to 2007 the initial findings indicate that the increasing magnitude of china s trade both in terms of the carbon emissions embodied in exports and the carbon emissions avoided via imports had large scale effects during the whole period the technique effect caused by changes in input mix sector energy intensity fuel mix and carbon coefficients effectively offset part of the scale effect during the entire period but failed to do so during some sub periods changes in trade composition caused a relative small increase in the carbon emissions created by exports but a relative small decrease in the carbon emissions avoided via imports during the whole period

quo vadis mrio methodological data and institutional requirements for multi region input output analysis abstract in order to understand wider sustainability impacts of consumption and to successfully promote and implement sustainable consumption and production policies there is a need to capture the whole life cycle impact of products and services across international supply chains multi region input output mrio databases are a well described and suitable foundation for global sustainability analyses addressing a wide range of policy and research questions in this paper we reflect on the reasons for the recent boom in mrio compilation summarise the current state of development and discuss future options for mrio analysis we list in detail the requirements for efficient and effective mrio research and propose systemic and institutional changes we deliberately try to go beyond existing ambitions for mrio compilation and thus intend to stimulate discussion and to lay out the options for the future of mrio research

union wage rigidity the default settings of labor law current discussions of wage norms begin with george perry s analysis 1980 he argued that the rate of wage change appeared to shift in discrete steps although his study concerned aggregate wage adjustments the union sector has long been identified as the primary source of wage rigidity and hence of wage norms the stylized explanation for the rigidity of any market price in the efficient contracting literature is the presence of high transaction costs high transaction costs emanate from the internal rather than the external labor market these costs make it inefficient to update wages continuously to changing market conditions alternatively stated wage rigidity or norms is a nash equilibrium for firms under ordinary circumstances see costas azariadis 1985 the equilibrium position is maintained until the transaction costs of making the change are less than the costs of maintaining the old regime once the regime changes however the new regime or equilibrium can be a discrete rather than a marginal change from the prior regime the regime in the unionized sector today is one of concession bargaining although concessions have been concentrated in those sectors that have experienced competition in a setting of deregulation and increased international trade increased competition is more likely to be a consequence of earlier relative wage and cost changes than an exogenous cause of concessions today in fact the common thread that binds together the industries that have exhibited concession bargaining is that they have emerged from a prior regime of significant and prolonged increases in union wage premiums indeed as shown by peter linneman and myself the increases in union wage premiums have caused a statistically significant and quantitatively large decrease in union employment concession bargains thus represent a shift in regimes as the parties attempt to deal with the effects of the prior regime of increasing premiums there is little doubt that the increase in union premiums was related to the supply shocks of the 1970 s that is while nonunionized wages declined in response to these shocks union real wages continued to increase in this sense the puzzle is why the unionized sector did not shift to lower wage norms during the 1970 s and not the presence of concessions today the expansion of union wage premiums over the past decade cannot be explained by the traditional model of union nonunion wage differentials that model states that premiums remain steady over time unless changes occur in the underlying labor demand elasticities i e the hicks marshall conditions change or the unions tastes reflecting the wages employment tradeoff labor markets however have become more rather than less competitive in the 1970 s as a consequence of deregulation and increasing international trade in disequilibrium variation in the union wage premium can occur due to the fixedcontracting periou indeed union wage rigidity is typically explained by the existence of 3 year contracts that permit only incomplete wage adjustments during the contract period in this paper the extent of union wage rigidity is shown to be related to contracting lags but the lags are not identified with contract expiration and renegotiation dates rather the lags and the resulting wage rigid professor of economics law and management university of pennsylvania philadelphia pa 19104 costas azariadis david hall clyde summers lea vandervelde and susan wachter provided many helpful suggestions and rodrigo quintanilla and nancy zurich provided valuable research assistance the research was supported by the institute for law and economics university of pennsylvania see peter linneman and myself 1986 for a discussion of the endogeneity of increased international competition and to a lesser extent deregulation

carbon dioxide emission drivers for a typical metropolis using input output structural decomposition analysis as the capital of china beijing is regarded as a major metropolis in the world study of the variation in temporal co2 emissions generated by the driving forces in beijing can provide guidance for policy decisions on co2 emissions mitigation in global metropolises based on input output structural decomposition analysis io sda we analysed the driving forces for the increment in co2 emissions in beijing from both production and final demand perspectives during 1997 2010 according to our results the co2 emission growth in beijing is driven mainly by production structure change and population growth partly offset by co2 emission intensity reduction as well as the decline in per capita final demand volume during the study period final demand structure change has a limited effect on the change in the co2 emissions in beijing from the final demand perspective urban trades urban residential consumption government consumption and fixed capital formation are mainly responsible for the booming emissions this study showed how the top down io sda methodology was implemented on a city scale policy implications from this study would be helpful for addressing co2 emissions mitigation in global capital cities and metropolises

a combined input output and sensitivity analysis approach to analyse sector linkages and co2 emissions abstract this paper proposes a methodology which identifies the main productive linkages between activity branches in terms of co2 emissions and applies this methodology to the spanish case it suggests that emissions are related to the input output productive relationships within an economy to the co2 emissions intensity of sectors and to the structure of final demand of different sectors a formal analysis of these factors is carried out by means of an input output framework combined with sensitivity analysis and lineal programming the most co2 emissions intensive productive relationships in spain are shown this consideration of the main linkages contributes to the identification of the key sectors and facilitates the design of effective policy measures aimed at co2 emissions abatement

imbalance of carbon emissions embodied in the us japan trade temporal change and driving factors abstract in us japan trade japan ran both economic export surplus and export co2 emission surplus with the us positive net monetary exports for japan were actually a kind of economic losses of the us while positive net export co2 emissions or net co2 emissions embodied in us japan trade were regarded as pollution transfer from u s to japan however due to lack of unified measurement units and standards between the two research fields it is difficult to directly assess whether positive effects of u s via carbon transfer outweigh negative effects caused by economic losses the study transforms absolute values of net monetary exports and net export co2 emissions from 2000 to 2011 in us japan trade into two ratios the ratio of net monetary exports to gdp of u s and the ratio of net embodied co2 emissions to total co2 emissions of the us by comparison the result shows that on average net monetary exports between u s and japan accounted for 0 45 of american gdp while ratio of net export emissions to aggregate consumption based co2 emissions of u s kept about 0 20 during the research period concerned which indicated that negative effects of economic losses in u s outweighed positive effects via carbon transfer in us japan trade furthermore a structural analysis of co2 emissions embodied in us japan trade during the 11 years is given the most significant driver was emission coefficients defined as co2 emissions per unit of energy consumption the driving force of emission coefficients led to dramatic reduction in co2 flows from japan to the us and thus caused decrease of net export emissions which also explained the major reason for the low ratio of export emissions to total co2 emissions of the us finally according to sectoral distributions of co2 flows between japan and the us emission sources of two countries presented different characteristics