learning to believe in sunspots a number of authors have shown that competitive economies may possess sunspot equilibria that is rational expectations equilibria in which purely extrinsic uncertainty affects equilibrium prices and allocations 2 such results demonstrate that it does not require a lack of faith in the rationality of market participants to believe that competitive markets may be subject to purely speculative fluctuations driven solely by expectations 3 the mere existence of sunspot equilibria as solutions to a system of marketclearing conditions however might not be judged sufficient to indicate that competitive markets with rational participants could ever be subject to speculative instability the sunspot equilibria represent states of affairs in which agents act differently in the case of different realizations of the sunspot variable and it is rational for each agent to do so but it might be thought unlikely that the beliefs of all the participants in the market could ever come to be coordinated so as to bring about an equilibrium of that kind it is rational to believe that sunspots convey information about future states of affairs once the economy is in a sunspot equilibrium but why would rational agents ever begin to believe in such a thing so as to create the conditions under which the belief is rational in order to address such a question one must go beyond the mere statement of the conditions for equilibrium and discussion of what states of affairs satisfy them one must specify an explicit dynamic process according to which the beliefs of agents adjust when out of equilibrium any exercise of this kind is necessarily unsatisfactory as there is no univocal meaning for the postulate of rational behavior outside of an equilibrium it may well be the case that

religion opportunism and international market entry via non equity alliances or joint ventures one challenge that globalization has brought to business is that firms as they expand their market globally through cross border alliances need to deal with partner firms from countries of different religious background the impact of a country s dominant religion on its firms international market entry mode choices has not been examined in traditional approaches focusing on hypothesizing the influence of christian beliefs and atheism i e the absence of belief in any deities this research aims to fill the gap by exploring religion s role in providing moral restraint on managers propensity for opportunism which in turn affects these managers choices of their firms international market entry via non equity alliances or joint ventures a study of 22 156 cross border alliances formed in 48 industries world wide over 9 years provides new insight toward understanding religion s influence on firms international market entry mode decisions through the ethical dimension of strategic leadership

do religious norms influence corporate debt financing previous studies substantiate that religious social norms influence individual and organizational decisions using debt financing settings we examine whether a firm s religious environment influences outside parties perceptions in contracting with the firm we document that firms located in the more religious areas use less debt financing and receive better credit ratings bond investors require lower yields and impose fewer covenants on such firms using the 2002 revelation of sex abuse by catholic priests as an exogenous shock we verify that these findings are not driven by endogeneity issues our study highlights the role of social norms in financial transactions

equilibrium and government commitment abstract how should a government use the power to commit to ensure a desirable equilibrium outcome in this paper i show a misleading aspect of what has become a standard approach to this question and i propose an alternative i show that the complete description of an optimal indeed of any policy scheme requires outlining the consequences of paths that are often neglected the specification of policy along those paths is crucial in determining which schemes implement a unique equilibrium and which ones leave room for multiple equilibria that depend on the expectations of the private sector

bank runs and investment decisions revisited we examine how the possibility of a bank run affects the deposit contract offered and the investment decisions made by a competitive bank cooper and ross 1998 have shown that when the probability of a run is small the bank will offer a contract that admits a bank run equilibrium we show that in this case the bank will chose to hold an amount of liquid reserves exactly equal to what withdrawal demand will be if a run does not occur in other words precautionary or excess liquidity will not be held this result allows us to determine how the possibility of a bank run affects the level of illiquid investment chosen by a bank we show that when the cost of liquidating investment early is high the level of investment is decreasing in the probability of a run however when liquidation costs are moderate the level of investment is actually increasing in the probability of a run

optimal fiscal policy under multiple equilibria abstract we study optimal fiscal policy in an economy where i search frictions create a coordination problem and generate multiple pareto ranked equilibria and ii the government finances the provision of a public good by taxing market activity the government must choose the tax rate before it knows which equilibrium will obtain and therefore an important part of the problem is determining how the policy will affect the equilibrium selection process we show that when the equilibrium selection rule is based on the concept of risk dominance higher tax rates make coordination on the pareto superior outcome less likely as a result taking equilibrium selection effects into account leads to a lower optimal tax rate

tax evasion under random audits with uncertain detection abstract we show that an increase in taxpayer uncertainty about the amount of tax evasion that will be detected if an audit is undertaken increases compliance for prudent taxpayers if they believe that they will be assessed at least the amount of tax evaded thus a policy that fosters detection uncertainty is more likely to encourage compliance the higher is the penalty for tax evasion

bank runs and institutions the perils of intervention we study ex post efficient policy responses to a run on the banking system and the ex ante incentives these responses create we show that the efficient response to a run is typically not to freeze all remaining deposits since doing so imposes heavy costs on some individuals instead once a run is underway benevolent government institutions would allow additional deposit withdrawals placing further strain on the banking system when depositors anticipate these extra withdrawals their incentive to participate in the run increases in fact ex post efficient interventions can generate the conditions necessary for a self fulfilling run to occur jel g21 g8

randomization of commodity taxes an expenditure minimization approach using an expenditure minimization approach necessary and sufficient conditions for local random taxation are obtained in terms of the curvature of the compensated demand function so that intuition from excess burden analysis can be applied major findings include 1 random taxation is locally optimal if the compensated demand function is sufficiently convex 2 horizontally equitable taxation is locally optimal if the compensated demand function is concave and 3 local randomization is not optimal if the tax revenue requirement is sufficiently close to zero or to any local maximum we also derive an inverse elasticity characterization of the optimal random tax structure

testing alternative theories of the firm transaction cost knowledge based and measurement explanations for make or buy decisions in information services firms boundary choices have undergone careful examination in recent years particularly in information services while transaction cost economics provides a widely tested explanation for boundary choice more recent theoretical work advances competing knowledge based and measurement cost explanations similar to transaction cost economics these theories examine the impact of exchange attributes on the performance of markets and hierarchies as institutions of governance these theories however offer alternative attributes to those suggested by transaction cost economics or offer alternative mechanisms through which similar attributes influence make buy choices traditional empirical specifications of make buy models are unable to comparatively test among these alternative theories by developing and testing a model of comparative institutional performance rather than institutional choice we examine the degree of support for these competing explanations of boundary choice hypotheses are tested using data on the governance of nine information services at 152 companies our results suggest that a theory of the firm and a theory of boundary choice is likely to be complex requiring integration of transaction cost knowledge based and measurement reasoning 1998 john wiley sons ltd

a managerial decision model of international cooperative venture formation this paper develops a model of international cooperative venture formation that is centered on the decisionmaking process of mne executives central issues for managerial decisions are developed from the organizational studies literature a framework delineating the sequence and criteria used in the decision to form international cooperative ventures is developed from these defined issues and from existing models propositions pertaining to the venture formation decision process are outlined

an economic analysis of tax amnesties abstract tax amnesties have frequently been justified as politically popular ways to generate increases in government revenue this paper examines the circumstances under which amnesties are likely to have a beneficial impact on revenue collections it concludes that while in general it may be correct to impose a reduced penalty on individuals who voluntarily disclose tax evasion shortlived amnesties of the type most frequently observed in practice are unlikely to generate genuinely additional revenue particularly when judged against the potential danger of reducing future tax compliance

macroeconomics after the crisis time to deal with the pretense of knowledge syndrome the recent financial crisis has damaged the reputation of macroeconomics largely for its inability to predict the impending financial and economic crisis to be honest this inability to predict does not concern me much it is almost tautological that severe crises are essentially unpredictable for otherwise they would not cause such a high degree of distress what does concern me about my discipline is that its current core by which i mainly mean the so called dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach has become so mesmerized with its own internal logic that it has begun to confuse the precision it has achieved about its own world with the precision that it has about the real one this is dangerous for both methodological and policy reasons to be fair to our field an enormous amount of work at the intersection of macroeconomics and corporate finance has been chasing many of the issues that played a central role during the current crisis including liquidity evaporation collateral shortages bubbles crises panics fire sales risk shifting contagion and the like however much of this literature belongs to the periphery of macroeconomics rather than to its core i will discuss the distinction between the core and the periphery of macroeconomics as well as the futile nature of the integrationist movement that is the process of gradually bringing the insights of the periphery into the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium structure i argue that the complexity of macroeconomic interactions limits the knowledge we can ever attain and that we need to place this fact at the center of our analysis we should consider what this complexity does to the actions and reactions of the economic agent and seek analytical tools and macroeconomic policies that are robust to the enormous uncertainty to which we are confined

learning in mis specified models and the possibility of cycles abstract i study the problem of a monopolist maximizing a sum of discounted profits facing a linear demand curve whose slope and intercept are unknown i show that if the monopolist has a mis specified model i e if the true slope and intercept lie outside of the support of the monopolist s prior beliefs then actions and beliefs may cycle on every sample path this behavior is shown to be robust to perturbations in the prior true parameter and actions such behavior is not possible if the agent s model is correctly specified instead actions and beliefs necessarily converge

learning convergence and stability with multiple rational expectations equilibria abstract for a linear model with multiple rational expectations equilibria ree we discuss the set of possible ree solutions include i locally unique minimal state variable solutions taking an ar 1 form and ii continua of solutions which may depend on sunspots we analyze the convergence of econometric learning to the different ree there exist cases with more than one stable ar 1 solution it is also possible for a continuum of solutions to be stable but this property is not robust to overparametrization an application is developed and it is suggested that the exhibited phenomena may arise in applied macroeconomic models

tax evasion and uncertainty in a dynamic context we study optimal dynamic compliance decisions in an uncertain environment contrary to the static literature greater uncertainty affects consumption not the optimal tax evasion rule thus audit and sanctions rather than fiscal uncertainty should be used to control tax evasion

how effective are fiscal incentives for r d a review of the evidence this paper surveys the econometric evidence on the effectiveness of fiscal incentives for r d we describe the effects of tax systems in oecd countries on the user cost of r d the current position changes over time and across different firms in different countries we describe and criticize the methodologies used to evaluate the effect of the tax system on

the fragility of sunspots and bubbles abstract expectational stability e stability is used to examine the multiplicity of solutions in a range of rational expectations models of interest including muth s inventory model and an overlapping generations model in these model it is found that sunspot and other rational bubble solutions are either e unstable or weakly but not strongly e stable

introduction to the stability of rational expectations equilibrium abstract this paper surveys the literature which examines the stability of the expectations that agents are assumed to have in a rational expectations equilibrium ree this issue is more complex than the usual statistical estimation problem because the relationship between observable variables and payoff relevant variables is endogenous one approach taken in the literature yields convergence to a ree but requires agents to have extensive knowledge about the structure and dynamics of the model that prevails while they learn a second approach does not assume that agents have correctly specified likelihood functions and finds that ree may not be stable

unique equilibrium in a model of self fulfilling currency attacks even though self fulfilling currency attacks lead to multiple equilibria when fundamentals are common knowledge we demonstrate the uniqueness of equilibrium when speculators face a small amount of noise in their signals about the fundamentals this unique equilibrium depends not only on the fundamentals but also on financial variables such as the quantity of hot money in circulation and the costs of speculative trading in contrast to multiple equilibrium models our model allows analysis of policy proposals directed at curtailing currency attacks

an evolutionary interpretation of van huyck battalio and beil s experimental results on coordination this paper proposes an adaptive interpretation of the results of some recent experiments with repeated tacit coordination games these experiments revealed several behavioral regularities including a systematic discrimination between strict nash equilibria in certain games that appear to be driven by strategic uncertainty and are not explained by traditional equilibrium refinements the observed patterns of discrimination correspond closely to predictions based on maynard smith s notion of evolutionary stability an adaptive model in the spirit of the evolutionary dynamics but recognizing the important differences between learning in human populations and evolution promises to yield a unified explanation of the results journal of economic literature classification numbers 020 026

sizing the government is there such a thing as an optimal government size we investigate the so called armey curve which claims an inverted u shaped relationship between government size and economic performance using non parametric data envelopment analysis dea the dea scores are linked to control variables such as initial per capita income openness population density urbanization country size and family size for 23 oecd countries we estimate the country specific efficiency scores which reveal the extent to which a country uses excess public resources to achieve the observed growth rate of gdp

is public r d a complement or substitute for private r d a review of the econometric evidence is public r d spending complementary and thus additional to private r d spending or does it substitute for and tend to crowd out private r d conflicting answers are given to this question we survey the body of available econometric evidence accumulated over the past 35 years a framework for analysis of the problem is developed to help organize and summarize the findings of econometric studies based on time series and cross section data from various levels of aggregation laboratory firm industry country the findings overall are ambivalent and the existing literature as a whole is subject to the criticism that the nature of the experiment s that the investigators envisage is not adequately specified we conclude by offering suggestions for improving future empirical research on this issue

the current economic crisis its nature and the course of academic economics the current crisis has triggered significant debate concerning economic theory and policy largely absent from this debate is an informed discussion of the methods used by economists in analysing the economy and formulating their proposals but method matters here i argue that current academic research practices need to be transformed before real insight can be achieved specifically i indicate why and how a more grounded framework than that presupposed by current research practices facilitates a potentially more fruitful approach to understanding the crisis

is there redemption for conventions this article explores the concept of convention in the social sciences it presents the two major neo humean philosophical approaches to convention and challenges their intuitive appeal and research implications the weaknesses of these approaches are examined and a new direction is suggested for the study of convention the paper goes on to develop a framework for the analysis of conventions using the notion of the exemplar introduced by thomas kuhn an illustration of this alternative approach is provided using the example of the wage relation copyright 2005 oxford university press

determinants of patent rights a cross national study abstract this paper presents an index of patent rights for 110 countries for the period 1960 1990 the index is used to examine what factors or characteristics of economies determine how strongly patent rights will be protected the evidence does indicate that more developed economies tend to provide stronger protection but the underlying factors which influence patent protection levels are the country s level of research and development r d activity market environment and international integration which are correlated with its level of development the results qualify however that r d activity influences patent protection levels after a nation s research sector reaches a critical size an implication of this is that to raise patent protection levels in weakly protecting countries it is important to foster a significant research base in those countries and thereby create incentives for protecting patent rights

carbon trading in the policy mix the kyoto protocol is stimulating the development of emissions trading schemes at the national and international levels these are being introduced alongside existing policy instruments such as carbon taxes and negotiated agreements leading to complex problems of policy interaction but the topic of policy interaction remains under researched this paper aims to improve understanding of such interactions by examining the conditions under which a cap and trade scheme for carbon dioxide emissions may usefully coexist with carbon energy taxes support mechanisms for renewable electricity and policies to promote energy efficiency the paper argues that each of these instrument combinations may be acceptable provided they contribute to either improving the static or dynamic efficiency of the trading scheme or delivering other valued policy objectives but since the coexisting instruments may raise overall abatement costs while contributing nothing further to emission reductions the objectives and trade offs within the policy mix must be explicit

taxpayer response to an increased probability of audit evidence from a controlled experiment in minnesota abstract in 1995 a group of 1724 randomly selected minnesota taxpayers was informed by letter that the returns they were about to file would be closely examined compared to a control group that did not receive this letter low and middle income taxpayers in the treatment group on average increased tax payments compared to the previous year which we interpret as indicating the presence of noncompliance the effect was much stronger for those with more opportunity to evade in fact the difference in differences is not statistically significant for those who do not have self employment or farm income and do not pay estimated tax surprisingly however the reported tax liability of the high income treatment group fell sharply relative to the control group

the assessment technology policy current research and problems in science and technology policy are reviewed trends in innovative activity in the g 7 economies during the past two decades are summarized and the economic rationale for policy in this area given policy tools currently in use in many countries include tax credits and subsidies the intellectual property system and competition policy ongoing areas of current controversy are the interaction of intellectual property and competition policies environmental and innovation policy standard setting in industries characterized by network externalities and the privatization of scientific research and its consequences copyright 2002 oxford university press

activist fiscal policy during and after the great recession that began in december 2007 the u s federal government enacted several rounds of activist fiscal policy in this paper we review the recent evolution of thinking and evidence regarding the effectiveness of activist fiscal policy although fiscal interventions aimed at stimulating and stabilizing the economy have returned to common use their efficacy remains controversial we review the debate about the traditional types of fiscal policy interventions such as broad based tax cuts and spending increases as well as more targeted policies while there have been improvements in estimates of the effects of broad based policies much of what has been learned recently concerns how such multipliers might vary with respect to economic conditions such as the credit market disruptions and very low interest rates that were central features of the great recession the eclectic and innovative interventions by the federal reserve and other central banks during this period highlight the imprecise divisions between monetary and fiscal policy and the many channels through which fiscal policies can be implemented

innovation strategies as a source of persistent innovation an important topic in the recent literature on firms innovation is the question of whether and to what extent firms which innovate once have a higher probability of innovating again in subsequent periods this phenomenon is called the persistence of innovation although the literature has established that innovation persistence is indeed important from an empirical point of view relatively little attention has been paid to identifying the reasons why this is the case in this article we contribute to the literature by proposing that differences in innovation strategies across firms are an important driving force behind innovation persistence we analyses this issue using a panel database constructed from r d and community innovation surveys in norway empirical measures of five innovation strategies are identified by means of an inductive method ad hoc supplier based market driven r d intensive and science based a dynamic random effects probit model is used to estimate whether and to what extent these innovation strategies are a source of persistent innovation the results support the idea that the differences in innovation strategies across firms are an important determinant of the firms probability to repeatedly innovate more concretely we found that firms pursuing the strategies market driven r d intensive and science based were more likely to be persistent innovators we also distinguish the effects of strategy differences on the persistence of product and process innovation in all firms and within high tech versus low tech firms

expectations and contagion in self fulfilling currency attacks this paper shows how expectations driven contagion of currency crises can arise even if the currency market has a unique equilibrium when viewed in isolation the model of morris and shin 1998 is extended to allow speculators to trade in a second currency market if speculators believe that a devaluation of this other currency will make a domestic devaluation more likely they will engage in trades that link the two markets a sharp devaluation of the other currency will then be propagated to the domestic market and will increase the likelihood of ac risis there fulfilling the original expectations even though this contagion is driven solely by expectations the model places restrictions on observable variables and these restrictions are broadly consistent with existing empirical evidence

plea bargaining with the irs extensions and further results abstract chu journal of public economics 41 1990 319 333 proposes a tax scheme called fatota under which taxpayers are given the choice between paying a fixed amount of taxes and thus being exempted from tax audit or paying only what taxpayers claim they owe and being subject to tax audits for possible evasion in this paper we extend chu s finding with regard to the pareto improving property of fatota to a more general setting including nonlinear tax penalty schedules complicated audit rules and endogenous labor supply we also show that any tax system in which the highest income taxpayer faces audit risk and or tax distortion can be pareto improved upon by the introduction of fatota we relate this result to seade s journal of public economics 7 1977 203 235 celebrated finding in the optimal taxation literature that any income tax schedule with a positive marginal tax rate at the top of the scale can be replaced by another tax schedule which is strictly pareto improving

transaction cost determinants and ownership based entry mode choice a meta analytical review entry mode choice is a critical ingredient of international entry strategies and has been voluminously examined in the field the findings however are very mixed especially with respect to transaction cost related factors in determining the ownership based entry mode choice this study conducted a meta analysis to quantitatively summarize the literature and empirically generalize more conclusive findings based on the 106 effect sizes of 38 empirical studies the meta analysis shows that the findings of the existing studies are moderated to varying degrees by both study setting factors and statistical artifacts although the combined overall effects of transaction cost based determinants are consistent with the predictions of transaction cost economics we extensively discuss the implications of meta analytical results especially moderating effects of location country of origin industry type and statistical artifacts highlight the measurement adequacy equivalence and multidimensionality of transaction cost determinants and present our suggestions to improve theoretical inquiries and empirical verifications on entry mode choice

efficient tax reporting the effects of taxpayer liability information services the complexity of the individual income tax system can give rise to both under and overreporting of liability thus creating a wedge between taxpayer perceptions of the price of public services and their actual cost and potentially leading to budget misallocations and associated efficiency losses this study uses theory and experiments to evaluate the effectiveness of taxpayer service programs that endeavor to resolve uncertainty over tax liability to do so we induce uncertainty over tax liability and investigate the effects of both service accuracy and reliability we find participants are less likely to file when tax liability is uncertain but the provision of information offsets this effect furthermore it appears that simply providing a service even one that imperfectly reveals liability increases the propensity to file and the accuracy of the filing when a service that promises to resolve uncertainty completely is requested but not delivered the result is underreporting even more severe than in a setting where no service is available jel h2 h26 c91

the optimal size of a tax collection agency the condition that characterizes the optimal size of a tax collection agency is derived and then given a simple interpretation in terms of excess burden the paper clarifies an earlier finding of sandmo which suggests that the optimal degree of enforcement is higher than a simple cost benefit calculation would indicate the appropriate condition is that at the margin the resource cost of increasing enforcement should equal the saving of excess burden due to the decline in exposure to risk the increased revenue gained from stricter enforcement does not enter the expression because it merely represents a transfer among the economy s identical agents

on the internal revenue service s service and enforcement i introduction the internal revenue service irs services as well as audits taxpayers the irs provides taxpayer service through a variety of channels including its website toll free telephone lines and the taxpayer assistance center for fy 2008 the irs budget request includes 3 6 billion for taxpayer service and 7 2 billion for enforcement everson 2007 in the assessment of the fy 2009 irs budget request the government accountability office gao 2008 1 points out that effective tax administration requires a balance of service and enforcement and enforcement efforts should be combined with taxpayer service because both affect compliance although taxpayer service is an important activity of the irs s operation to our knowledge there is no formal model to address the connection between service and enforcement and more importantly its policy implications in the context of tax compliance this article seeks to take a step to fill this void we consider a simple tax compliance model which is built upon the seminal work of graetz reinganum and wilde 1986 hereafter grw unlike the classical contribution of allingham and sandmo 1972 and yitzhaki 1974 which treats the irs actions as exogenous in their analysis of tax evasion the grw model views the irs as a strategic player that interacts with taxpayers the grw model also differs from the principal agent tax evasion model first introduced by reinganum and wilde 1985 as pointed out by grw the principal agent model suffers from the time inconsistency problem as it requires that the irs announce and commit to an audit policy even though the precommitted audit policy will typically prove suboptimal once taxpayers submit their reported income grw emphasize that their interactive model follows the natural temporal sequence of decisions first taxpayers report their income and only then does the irs decide whether to perform tax audits this sequence is what we typically observe in the real world 1 however like other models on tax compliance grw consider the enforcement part but leave out the service part of the irs activities we extend the grw model to the real world in which the irs services as well as audits taxpayers similar to grw we assume that a taxpayer has either high income or low income to incorporate the role of the irs s service we also assume that taxpayers are uncertain about whether their incomes are eligible for deduction exemption and may seek advice from the taxpayer service provided by the irs to mitigate the uncertainty an important feature of our model is that in equilibrium all net tax revenues collected by the irs are from those taxpayers who voluntarily report high incomes to the irs to maximize the population of the taxpayers in this group the irs will not provide the most accurate service but only maintain an intermediate level of quality the optimal level of accuracy will be increasing as the difficulty in identifying the true income eligibility increases which may be due to more complicated tax laws moreover there exists a conflict between the irs and the society with regard to the optimal taxpayer service in that the society s preferred quality of taxpayer service is likely to be sufficiently high the conflict tends to be intensified as the cost of tax audits becomes lower our result is consistent with the trend in the united states regarding the resources allocated to the taxpayer service in the past few decades we also extend our model in the following two directions the first extension is to address the issue of corruption in tax administration many developing countries suffer from inefficiencies in tax administration and corruption arising from enforcement some authors argue that it is important for developing countries to recognize the service paradigm of tax compliance which emphasizes not only the role of enforcement but also the role of taxpayer service

how do patent laws influence innovation evidence from nineteenth century world fairs studies of innovation have focused on the effects of patent laws on the number of innovations but have ignored effects on the direction of technological change this paper introduces a new dataset of close to fifteen thousand innovations at the crystal palace world s fair in 1851 and at the centennial exhibition in 1876 to examine the effects of patent laws on the direction of innovation the paper tests the following argument if innovative activity is motivated by expected profits and if the effectiveness of patent protection varies across industries then innovation in countries without patent laws should focus on industries where alternative mechanisms to protect intellectual property are effective analyses of exhibition data for 12 countries in 1851 and 10 countries in 1876 indicate that inventors in countries without patent laws focused on a small set of industries where patents were less important while innovation in countries with patent laws appears to be much more diversified these findings suggest that patents help to determine the direction of technical change and that the adoption of patent laws in countries without such laws may alter existing patterns of comparative advantage across countries jel d2 k11 l51 no 014

the economics of organization the transaction cost approach the transaction cost approach to the study of economic organization regards the transaction as the basic unit of analysis and holds that an understanding of transaction cost economizing is central to the study of organizations applications of this approach require that transactions be dimensionalized and that alternative governance structures be described economizing is accomplished by assigning transactions to governance structures in a discriminating way the approach applies both to the determination of efficient boundaries as between firms and markets and to the organization of internal transactions including the design of employment relations the approach is compared and contrasted with selected parts of the organization theory literature

randomness in tax enforcement abstract when there is tax evasion increased randomness about how much taxable income an auditor would assess generally leads to higher reported income and more revenue when reducing randomness is costly optimality requires some randomness in assessed taxable income even if reducing randomness is costless taxpayers may prefer some randomness when the increased revenue can be rebated so that the government s revenue stays fixed

on the robustness of bubbles in linear re models the authors analyze the expectational stability e stability of the different solutions of a linear rational expectations model in which the endogenous variable depends on expectations of its current and future values formed in the past and also on its own lagged value it is shown that continuum of bubble solutions cannot be strongly e stable in contrast for certain parameter values a particular solution that would normally be identified as a bubble solution can be strongly e stable the results are applied to a macroeconomic model with real balance effects copyright 1992 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

the limits of ontological critique from judgmental rationality to justification the cambridge social ontology cso programme s inability to generate a meaningful dialogue with mainstream economics is difficult to understand by mere reference to judgmental rationality and without reference to cso s ideological configuration our paper uses an economie des conventions framework to draw systematic comparisons between cso s ideological configuration and the ideological configurations of mainstream economic theories and practice the resulting analysis helps us to understand not only why cso generated little response from the mainstream but also how cso might renew its critique in ways that might be more likely to produce a response

the effect of national culture on the choice of entry mode characteristics of national cultures have frequently been claimed to influence the selection of entry modes this article investigates this claim by developing a theoretical argument for why culture should influence the choice of entry two hypotheses are derived which relate culture to entry mode choice one focusing on the cultural distance between countries the other on attitudes towards uncertainty avoidance using a multinomial logit model and controlling for other effects the hypotheses are tested by analysing data on 228 entries into the united states market by acquisition wholly owned greenfield and joint venture empirical support for the effect of national culture on entry choice is found

technology adoption in the presence of network externalities we analyze technology adoption in industries where network externalities are significant the pattern of adoption depends on whether technologies are sponsored a sponsor is an entity that has property rights to the technology and hence is willing to make investments to promote it key findings include the following 1 compatibility tends to be undersupplied by the market but excessive standardization can occur 2 in the absence of sponsors the technology superior today has a strategic advantage and is likely to dominate the market 3 when one of two rival technologies is sponsored that technology has a strategic advantage and may be adopted even if it is inferior 4 when two competing technologies both are sponsored the technology that will be superior tomorrow has a strategic advantage

the great crash of 2008 and the reform of economics the 2008 economic crash led to remarkable shifts of opinion among world leaders does this crisis create favourable conditions for the reform and revitalisation of economics itself from a subject dominated by mathematical techniques to a discipline more oriented to understanding real world institutions and actors and why were warnings of financial collapse not heeded recent shortcomings are partly related to the global triumph of market individualist ideology and partly to the exaggerated roles of modelling and quantification these failures of economics are partly peculiar to the discipline and also a result of other wider institutional and cultural forces

who profits from taxpayer confusion abstract when taxpayers are uncertain of true taxable income they must decide whether to resolve their uncertainty by seeking tax advice and then decide how much taxable income to report since tax advisors must sign their advisees tax returns the audit policy can depend on whether tax advice was sought in the optimal audit policy some taxpayers will not resolve their uncertainty and the optimal policy yields higher net revenue with uncertainty than without

income tax compliance in a principal agent framework previous analyses have modeled income tax evasion as a portfolio problem deriving the optimal consumption of the risky asset unreported income under the assumption of a fixed probability of detection the purpose of this paper is to examine some of these issues in tax compliance starting from a different set of assumptions in particular we compare alternative audit policies to the standard random audit policy we focus on an audit cutoff policy in which an agent triggers an audit if his or her reported income is too low and is not audited if reported income is sufficiently high this paper establishes two major results first random audit rules are weakly dominated by audit cutoff rules it can be shown given lump sum taxes and fines that these audit cutoff rules are the least cost policies which induce truthful reporting of income second the dominance of audit cutoff rules over random audit rules holds for lump sum as well as proportional taxation in fact the equilibrium consequences of the two are equivalent

economic growth liquidity and bank runs abstract we construct an endogenous growth model in which bank runs occur with positive probability in equilibrium in this setting a bank run has a permanent effect on the levels of the capital stock and of output in addition the possibility of a run changes the portfolio choices of depositors and of banks and thereby affects the long run growth rate these facts imply that both the occurrence of a run and the mere possibility of runs in a given period have a large impact on all future periods a bank run in our model is triggered by sunspots and we consider two different equilibrium selection rules in the first a run occurs with a fixed exogenous probability while in the second the probability of a run is influenced by banks portfolio choices we show that when the choices of an individual bank affect the probability of a run on that bank the economy both grows faster and experiences fewer runs

adaptive behavior and economic theory the relationship between psychological and economic views of behavior once a subject of heavy dispute is now understood in a very similar way by practitioners of both these disciplines and of our sister social sciences in general terms we view or model an individual as a collection of decision rules rules that dictate the action to be taken in given situations and a set of preferences used to evaluate the outcomes arising from particular situation action combinations these decision rules are continuously under review and revision new decision rules are tried and tested against experience and rules that produce desirable outcomes supplant those that do not i use the term adaptive to refer to this trial anderror process through which our modes of behavior are determined if one is interested in modeling particular decisions in any very explicit way it is obviously necessary to think about rather narrow aspects of an individual s entire set of decision rules his or her personality experimental psychology has traditionally focused on the adaptive process by which decision rules are replaced by others in this tradition the influence of the subject s or as an economist says the agent s preferences this essay uses a series of examples to illustrate the use of rationality and adaptation in economic theory it is argued that these hypotheses are complementary and that stability theories based on adaptive behavior may help to narrow the class of empirically interesting equilibria in certain economic models an experiment is proposed to test this idea

the patent paradox revisited an empirical study of patenting in the u s semiconductor industry 1979 1995 we examine the patenting behavior of firms in an industry characterized by rapid technological change and cumulative innovation recent survey evidence suggests that semiconductor firms do not rely heavily on patents to appropriate returns to r d yet the propensity of semiconductor firms to patent has risen dramatically since the mid1980s we explore this apparent paradox by conducting interviews with industry representatives and analyzing the patenting behavior of 95 u s semiconductor firms during 1979 1995 the results suggest that the 1980s strengthening of u s patent rights spawned patent portfolio races among capital intensive firms but it also facilitated entry by specialized design firms

government policy and the probability of coordination failures this paper introduces an approach to the study of optimal government policy in economies characterized by a coordination problem and multiple equilibria such models are often criticized as not being useful for policy analysis because they fail to assign a unique prediction to each possible policy choice we employ a selection mechanism that assigns ex ante a probability to each equilibrium indicating how likely it is to obtain we show how such a mechanism can be derived as the natural result of an adaptive learning process this approach leads to a well defined optimal policy problem and has important implications for the conduct of government policy we illustrate these implications using a simple model of technology adoption under network externalities

addressing uncertainty in economics and the economy this article explores the way society in general and economists in particular deal with fundamental uncertainty it is argued that uncertainty is interdependent with the evolution of institutions and behaviour including that designed to help society cope with uncertainty whilst some mainstream theory does address uncertainty it employs a much narrower concept than fundamental uncertainty generally in spite of the evident increase in fundamental uncertainty during the crisis most mainstream theory ignores it although ignoring uncertainty can sometimes be a successful coping mechanism it is argued that as a blanket coping mechanism ignoring uncertainty seriously limits the realism of theory and therefore also practice and policy it is concluded that economists should embrace uncertainty by tailoring methodologies and theories to address it this would provide a more fruitful basis for policy aimed at reducing uncertainty in the economy and also reducing our own uncertainty

global inspection games abstract in the tax evasion game a typical example of inspection game audits are costly and audit probabilities are determined by the tax agency based on the tax returns submitted by taxpayers we find that if taxpayers incomes are correlated e g when they are subject to a common shock the optimal audit probability for low declarations is an increasing function of the average declaration as the latter is an informative signal of the realized level of income since a taxpayer s optimal declaration is an increasing function of the probability of an audit the optimal auditing rule creates incentives for taxpayers to coordinate their declarations the resulting coordination game features multiplicity of equilibria and thus strategic uncertainty about the equilibrium that will be selected when we add a source of fundamental uncertainty about the type of agency taxpayers face the situation can be realistically modeled as a global game further and unlike the coordination game before it yields a unique and usually interior equilibrium which is consistent with empirical evidence and supported by the data collected in a computerized experiment the model can be applied to other inspection games of economic interest such as the regulation of industries and the allocation of welfare benefits among others

tax evasion and social interactions the paper extends the standard tax evasion model by allowing for social interactions in manski s manski c f 1993 identification of endogenous social effects the reflection problem review of economic studies 60 3 531 542 nomenclature our model takes into account endogenous interactions i e social conformity effects exogenous interactions i e fairness effects and correlated effects our model is tested using experimental data participants must decide how much income to report given individual and group tax rates and audit probabilities and given a feedback on the other members reporting behavior myopic and self consistent expectations are considered in the analysis in the latter case the estimation is based on a two limit simultaneous tobit with fixed group effects a unique social equilibrium exists when the model satisfies coherency conditions in line with brock and durlauf brock w a durlauf s n 2001b interactions based models in j heckman and e leamer eds handbook of econometrics 5 elsevier science b v 3297 380 the intrinsic nonlinearity between individual and group responses helps identify the model our results provide evidence of fairness effects but reject social conformity

equilibrium bank runs we analyze a banking system in which the class of feasible deposit contracts or mechanisms is broad the mechanisms must satisfy a sequential service constraint but partial or full suspension of convertibility is allowed consumers must be willing to deposit ex ante we show by examples that under the so called optimal contract the postdeposit game can have a run equilibrium given a propensity to run triggered by sunspots the optimal contract for the full predeposit game can be consistent with runs that occur with positive probability thus the diamond dybvig framework can explain bank runs as emerging in equilibrium under the optimal deposit contract

optimal observability in a linear income tax abstract we study the optimal observability of the tax base within the standard linear income tax problem where observability is determined by the government s investment into the accurate measurement of the tax base we characterize the optimal level of observability and derive a new expression for the optimal progressivity which in addition to the standard equity efficiency trade off accounts for the limited accuracy of an income tax system

the effectiveness of r d subsidies a meta regression analysis of the evaluation literature widespread and increasing public subsidy for research and development r d has given rise to a large and growing number of evaluation studies while economic theory identifies market failures that justify public support theory also suggests reasons why returns might be disappointing similarly the empirical literature investigated 52 micro level studies published since 2000 on either input or output r d reports a wide range of findings the lack of conclusiveness both of theory and of the evaluation literature motivate this meta regression analysis mra this study contributes to policy debate by identifying a representative subsidy effect after controlling for publication selection bias and for a wide range of sample and study heterogeneities mra findings reject crowding out of private investment by public subsidy but reveal no evidence of substantial additionality in addition among the research practices explaining the heterogeneous effects reported in this literature those related to the treatment of unobservable firm heterogeneity are particularly important

utilitarianism and horizontal equity the case for random taxation this paper establishes that far from being able to derive the principle of horizontal equity from utilitarianism the principle is actually in consistent with utilitarianism in a variety of circumstances we derive conditions under which a it is optimal to impose random tax schedules ex post randomization and b it is optimal to randomize the tax schedules imposed on a set of otherwise identical individuals ex ante randomization the implications for optimal tax theory are discussed more generally it is shown that there are a number of potentially important economic situations with which the principle of horizontal equity may be inconsistent not only with utilitarianism but even with pareto optimality this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

tax reporting game under uncertain tax laws and asymmetric information abstract this study models a game played by a tax enforcement agency and a taxpayer who is only partially informed about her true taxable income due to complexity of tax laws a signalling equilibrium is shown to exist in which the taxpayer s report is monotone increasing in her private information about taxable income investigated also is the effect of changes in uncertainty on reporting decisions and the agency s expected revenue

the nature of heterodox economics heterodoxy serves as an umbrella term to cover the coming together of separate projects or traditions in answering the question what distinguishes heterodoxy from the orthodoxy the author argues that matters of ontology are central in answering the question how are the various traditions that make up the modern heterodoxy to be distinguished from each other the author defends criteria other than varying commitments to specific substantive theories policy measures or techniques or basic units of analysis

an approach to equilibrium selection abstract we consider equilibrium selection in 2 2 bimatrix both symmetric and asymetric games with two strict nash equilibria by embedding the static games in a dynamic random matching framework played by a continuum of anonymous agents unlike in evolutionary games the players are rational and maximize discounted payoffs but they are restricted to make a short run commitment when choosing actions this dynamic game with frictions has stationary states which correspond to the nash equilibria of the static game our selection is based on differential stability properties of the stationary states it is shown that for a small degree of friction a strict nash equilibrium becomes uniquely absorbing and globally accessible if and only if it is risk dominant harsanyi and selten a general theory of equilibrium selection in games mit press cambridge ma 1988 journal of economic literature classification numbers c72 and c73