relative wage positions and quit behavior evidence from linked employer employee data the authors analyze the importance of relative wage positions within firms in western germany in the context of individual quit decisions as an inverse measure of job satisfaction using a linked employer employee data set liab for the years 1996 2005 whose sample consists of full time male prime age workers in western germany without college degrees they ascertain whether workers find status or signal effects stronger motivators for quit decisions they find that workers with higher relative wage positions within their firms are on average more likely to quit their jobs than those with lower relative wage positions and that workers who experience a loss in their relative wage positions are also more likely to accept a wage cut associated with their job transition overall results suggest that a signal effect is on average stronger than a status effect

learning and wage dynamics we develop a dynamic model of learning about worker ability in a competitive labor market the model produces three testable implications regarding wage dynamics 1 although the role of schooling in the labor market s inference process declines as performance observations accumulate the estimated effect of schooling on the level of wages is independent of labor market experience 2 timeinvariant variables correlated with ability but unobserved by employers such as certain test scores are increasingly correlated with wages as experience increases and 3 wage residuals are a martingale we present evidence from the nlsy that is broadly consistent with the model s predictions

the high cost of low wages does maquiladora compensation reduce turnover we determined which compensation practices of american owned plants in mexico reduced turnover regression revealed that profit sharing and saving plans lowered turnover while most pay forms did not we discussed these findings within a national culture approach to compensation administration

the economics of a blend mandate for biofuels a biofuel blend mandate may increase or decrease consumer fuel prices with endogenous oil prices depending on relative supply elasticities biofuel tax credits always reduce fuel prices tax credits result in lower fuel prices than under a mandate for the same level of biofuel production if tax credits are implemented alongside mandates then tax credits subsidize fuel consumption instead of biofuels this contradicts energy policy goals by increasing oil dependency co 2 emissions and traffic congestion while providing little benefit to either corn or ethanol producers these social costs will be substantial with tax credits costing taxpayers 28 7 billion annually by 2022 copyright 2008 oxford university press

what happens to wages after displacement faced with limited resources policymakers need to know when and where to target support for displaced workers the academic literature offers little support presenting wide ranging results with no consistent explanation for the observed differences in wages after workers are displaced in this paper we demonstrate that the heterogeneity found in the literature is consistent with varying market conditions the results suggest that support for displaced workers can be more efficiently allocated by considering the timing and location of displacement

an analysis of policy scenario effects on the adoption of energy production on the farm a case study in emilia romagna italy abstract the agriculture sector s contribution to energy production is a central issue in ongoing policy debates and one of the central elements of the development of bioeconomy sector the common agricultural policy cap is one of the main determinants of the different farm strategies of european farmers the cap is now undergoing a thorough revision process which necessarily includes a debate of the role of the policy in rural areas and the effectiveness of the various cap policy mechanisms the objective of this paper is to assess the impact of alternative cap scenarios in the light of the possible changes in 2013 and the willingness to adopt energy plants for energy crops in the province of bologna italy this is pursued using both survey information and farm household mathematical programming models hence using stated intentions and simulated profitability to analyse the adopt of new technologies for energy production the results underscore the relevance of the cap scenarios in altering intentions with regard to the adoption of energy production and the relevant effect of uncertainty in delaying the diffusion of energy production systems

the argentine stabilization plan of december 20th abstract in this paper an analytical model is developed to incorporate the essential characteristics of the stabilization plan implemented in argentina in january 1979 the model is based upon a set of simplifying assumptions that only approximate the complexity of the real world it is assumed that the expectations of inflation and the degree of excess demand or supply in the non traded goods market are the main intermediate determinants of the rate of inflation in that market the rate of change of prices of traded goods being determined by the external inflation together with the rate of devaluation treating thus the external rate of inflation as exogenous the only instrument available for influencing the rate of inflation in the long run is the rate of devaluation since the model assumes a fixed exchange rate regime the money supply is endogenous and hence unsuitable as an instrument of economic policy

relative wages wage growth and quit behavior using italian social security records for male workers from a sample of firms in turin from 1981 to 1983 we show that conditional on the worker s own wage the average wage in the establishment for similar workers is negatively related to quits we also find that this variable predicts future wage growth this is consistent with an economic model in which workers compare the longrun value of employment opportunities when making quit decisions

exchange rate based inflation stabilization the initial real effects of credible plans abstract this paper studies the initial effects of exchange rate based stabilization programs within a dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy in which inflation acts as a tax on intermediate transactions and capital accumulation is subject to convex adjustment costs and gestation lags the model replicates the typical pattern of slow inflation convergence sustained real exchange rate appreciation trade balance deterioration and expansion in domestic spending followed by a deflationary slowdown without resorting to sticky prices imperfect credibility or adaptive expectations calibrated versions of the model are compared with the initial effects of the argentine convertibility plan of april 1991

washington biofuel feedstock crop supply under output price and quantity uncertainty abstract subsidized development of an in state biofuels industry has received some political support in the state of washington usa utilizing in state feedstock supplies could be an efficient way to stimulate biofuel industries and the local economy in this paper we estimate supply under output price and quantity uncertainty for major biofuel feedstock crops in washington farmers are expected to be risk averse and maximize the utility of profit and uncertainty we estimate very large washington price elasticities for corn and sugar beets but a small price elasticity for a third potential feedstock canola even with the large price elasticities for two potential feedstocks their current and historical production levels in the state are so low that unrealistically large incentives would likely be needed to obtain sufficient feedstock supply for a washington biofuel industry based on our examination of state and regional data we find low likelihood that a washington biofuels industry will develop in the near future primarily using within state biofuel feedstock crops

nominal price rigidity money supply endogeneity and business cycles abstract this paper investigates the ability of nominal price rigidity to explain the co movement of inflation with the cyclical component of output observed in the post war u s data a dynamic general equilibrium model is constructed with the introduction of monopolistic competition and nominal price rigidity in a standard real business cycle model allowing for an endogenous money supply rule it is then demonstrated that sticky price models can explain the observed associations between movements in inflation and output much better than flexible price models this result depends little on whether money supply is assumed to be endogenous or not

layoffs quits and wage negotiations this paper studies the ex ante effect of worker separations on wage negotiations using matched worker firm data from the netherlands we find that wage negotiations aim to prevent separations workers with a high propensity to quit are offered higher wages while workers with a high layoff probability give up some of their wage

real exchange rates and inflation in exchange rate based stabilizations an empirical examination abstract numerous explanations have been advanced for why real exchange rates typically appreciate after the nominal exchange rate is stabilized but few of them have been directly tested this paper uses an error correction model of mexican inflation to decompose the real appreciation of the peso during 1988 1994 into that part attributable to the peso s initial undervaluation that part explained by growing domestic demand and that part attributable to backward looking inflation the results indicate that the effects of backward looking inflation were highly transitory but that both the expansion of domestic demand and the initial undervaluation of the peso were important in boosting domestic prices and hence appreciating the real exchange rate

the gender gap in early career wage growth in the uk the gender pay gap on entry to the labour market is approximately zero but ten years after labour market entry there is a gender wage gap of almost 25 log points this article explores the reason for this gender gap in early career wage growth considering three main hypotheses human capital job shopping and psychological theories human capital factors can explain about 11 log points job shopping about 1 5 log points and the psychological theories up to 4 5 log points depending on the specification but a substantial unexplained gap remains women who have continuous full time employment have had no children and express no desire to have them earn about 8 log points less than equivalent men after 10 years in the labour market

on the job search and moral hazard we analyze the interaction between intertemporal incentive contracts and search frictions associated with on the job search in our model agency problems call for wage contracts with deferred compensation at the same time workers do on the job search deferred compensation improves workers incentives to exert effort but distorts their on the job search decisions we show that deferred compensation is less attractive when the value to the worker firm pair of on the job search is high moreover the interplay between search frictions and wage contracts creates feedback effects if firms in equilibrium use contracts with deferred compensation fewer firms with vacancies enter the on the job search market and this in turn reduces the distortions created by deferred compensation these feedback effects between the incentive contracts used and the activity level in the search markets can lead to multiple equilibria a low turnover equilibrium where firms use deferred compensation and a high turnover equilibrium where they do not furthermore the model predicts that firms are more likely to use deferred compensation when search frictions are high and when the gains from on the job search are small

local underemployment and the discouraged worker effect summary the effect of poor local labour market opportunities on occupational achievement is an important aspect of the spatial mismatch hypothesis much of the research has concentrated on the direct link between geographical access to jobs and employment outcomes in contrast little attention has been given to the discouraging effect of poor chances on job search activities the discouraged worker effect is dee ned as the decision to refrain from job search as a result of poor chances on the labour market discouragement effects can arise from a lack of individual qualie cations from discrimination in the labour market or from a high local level of underemployment the empirical e ndings of this paper based on the netherlands labour force surveys 1994 97 show that discouragement can enter the job search process both at the stage of deciding to enter the labour force and at the stage of deciding to engage actively in a job search gender differentials in discouragement are revealed in the process of self selection into the labour force poor labour market chances lead to less activity in both off the job and on the job search indicating a role of discouragement in the spatial mismatch individual qualie cations and ascribed characteristics turn out to be more decisive than the local level of underemployment

the excess sensitivity of layoffs and quits to demand excessive layoffs in bad times and excessive quits in good times both stem from the same weakness in practical employment arrangements the specific nature of worker firm relations creates a situat

wages in and voluntary quits from an establishment internal labour market this paper analyses wage rates in and quit rates from two production departments in an establishment based structured internal labour market in which labour allocation between grades and the wage rate of these grades are managerially determined first it is assumed that management makes effective use of the private information about individual employees collected through time proxied by tenure to allocate them to the most appropriate tasks however in an ols regression the elasticity of the wage rate with respect to tenure although statistically significant is not economically important further it is assumed that this labour allocation process together with the wage structure will facilitate labour retention however in a probit model analysing the quit probability the probability of quitting increases with the wage rate both results are compatible with an internal labour market labour allocation process and wage structure that is not competitive with wage rates prevailing in the external lab

wages nonwage job characteristics and labor mobility this paper examines the effects of a set of nonwage job characteristics on the quit decisions of young and middle aged men the data set was constructed by merging data in the national longitudinal surveys of young and mature men with data from the dictionary of occupational titles file and the bureau of economic analysis file on fringe benefits the empirical analysis shows that some nonwage job attributes have significant influence on worker quit behavior and that there are important differences in the effects of the nonwage job characteristics across age groups young men are significantly more likely than older men to quit repetitive jobs for example whereas the presence of bad working conditions is a more important factor in the quit decisions of the older cohort the results also indicate that for the older men fringe benefits have a stronger effect on quit decisions than wages do further evidence on age differences is provided through an analysis of panel data from the quality of employment survey since the time of adam smith the theory of equalizing differences that individuals are induced to accept less attractive jobs by receiving compensating increases in their wages has been used by economists to explain the existence of wage differences in the labor market by definition the theory has important implications for understanding the mobility of labor since an individual s decision to change jobs is based on all the characteristics of a job the wage rate fringe benefits and nonpecuniary job at

effort and comparison income experimental and survey evidence the authors test the hypothesis that individual effort on the job depends both on one s own income and on the individual s position in the relevant income distribution combining experimental evidence from a gift exchange game with multi country issp survey data they analyze the extent to which relative income affects an individual s effort finding that an individual s rank in the income distribution more strongly determines effort than does others average income which suggests that comparisons are more ordinal than cardinal their experiment also reveals that comparisons over time affect effort individuals who received higher income offers or enjoyed higher income rank in the past exerted lower levels of effort for a given current income and rank

the returns to mobility and job search by gender using data from the national longitudinal survey of youth the authors estimate the returns to job search mobility and the interaction of search and mobility for young men and women they find st

the optimum quantity of money rule in the theory of public finance this paper examines optimal tax policy in a monetary economy in which money serves as an intermediate good that helps facilitate the conversion of scarce resources into tinal consumption goods by enabling consumers to economize on the costs of transacting it is shown that in such an environment even though distorting taxes must be levied for revenue purposes the optimal tax structure calls for abstaining from inflationary finance and adopting the optimum quantity of money rule

implicit contracts labor mobility and unemployment firms inability to monitor their employees search effort forces a tradeoff between risk bearing and incentive considerations when designing employment related insurance since the provision of insurance against firm specific shocks adversely affects workers incentives to find better jobs the optimal contract provides only partial insurance it prescribes low high wages and under over employment to encourage workers to leave stay at low high productivity firms and it employs quits and layoffs as alternative means of inducing separations at low productivity firms with the mix depending upon the relative efficiency of the on and off the job search technologies our analysis of implicit contracts with asymmetric search information establishes that any consistent explanation for worksharing layoffs severance pay quits and unemployment must focus on questions of labor mobility this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

worker inflow outflow and churning linked employer employee data from finnish business sector is used in analysing worker turnover the data set is an unbalanced panel with over 219 000 observations in 1991 97 the churning excess worker turnover worker inflow and worker outflow rates are explained by plant and employee characteristics the probabilities of observing non zero churning inflow and outflow rates increase with plant size the magnitudes of the non zero churning and inflow rates depend positively on size but the magnitude of outflow rate depends negatively on size high wage plants have low turnover plants with large within plant variation in wages have high turnover average tenure of employees has a negative impact on turnover high plant employment growth increases churning and separation but reduces hiring in the next year also controlled are average age and education of employees shares of women and homeowners among employees foreign ownership ownership changes and regional unemployment

sticky inflation and the real effects of exchange rate based stabilization abstract this paper tests the empirical validity of the forward looking pricing hypothesis using data from four exchange rate based stabilization erbs episodes it finds that backward looking components of inflation play an important role in inflation dynamics in some cases exceeding the importance of forward looking components the paper then shows that the presence of empirically relevant degrees of inflation stickiness increases the size of the real exchange rate appreciation predicted by an imperfect credibility model of erbs the 12 real appreciation predicted by the sticky inflation model is a 70 improvement over the predictions of the fully forward looking pricing setup but as in other erbs models still falls short of matching the real appreciations observed in practice

backward looking indexation credibility and inflation persistence abstract inflation persistence is a stylized fact after disinflation standard staggered prices models show very little or no inflation persistence and hence are of little use when inflation is sticky in this paper i present a model that on the one hand is consistent with the evidence of sticky inflation and on the other can be directly incorporated into modern intertemporal optimizing models the model modifies calvo s calvo g 1983a staggered contracts and exchange rate policy in j a frenkel ed exchange rates and international economics university of chicage press chicago il calvo g 1983b staggered wages in a utility maximization framework journal of monetary ecomomics 12 3 383 393 exclusively forward looking model and includes a backward looking component it encompasses the two extreme cases of purely forward and backward looking price setting i show how the model can be used in open economy stabilization programs this is not the first model including a form of backward indexation in a staggered prices setting however it has the advantage of keeping the analytical elegance of the calvo model while enhancing its dynamics

fairness and frictions the impact of unequal raises on quit behavior we analyze how separations responded to arbitrary differences in own and peer wages at a large us retailer regression discontinuity estimates imply large causal effects of own wages on separations and on quits in particular however this own wage response could reflect comparisons either to market wages or to peer wages estimates using peer wage discontinuities show large peer wage effects and imply the own wage separation response mostly reflects peer comparisons the peer effect is driven by comparisons with higher paid peers suggesting concerns about fairness separations appear fairly insensitive when raises are similar across peers suggesting search frictions and monopsony are relevant in this low wage sector

inflation inertia and credible disinflation abstract we develop a model of optimizing forward looking staggered price setting where even fully credible disinflations display a delayed and gradual inflation response and significant output losses there is a welfare trade off between these output losses and the gains from smaller inflationary distortions for reasonable parameter values disinflation improves welfare and more so if it is phased in gradually the pricing assumption of our model yields dynamics that are similar to models of sticky information but its state space is much simpler thereby allowing for the application of standard linearization methods

costly employment contract renegotiation and the labor mobility of young men the distinction of quits and permanent layoffs remains a contentious issue in the labor economics literature basically there appear two contrasting views of such turnover while both interpretations of turnover are derived from job matching models that assume wealth maximizing behavior of workers and firms each involves different assumptions about the feasibility of individual labor contract negotiations following hire on the one hand application of the coase theorem to employment contracts implies that turnover will occur only when the value of the worker s product in some alternative employment exceeds current job productivity since the actual division of the job match rent is assumed costlessly renegotiable only the presence of a truly more productive job assignment would prevent the renegotiation of the current rent sharing contract to the mutual benefit of both worker and firm the likelihood of a job change is thus directly related to the level of total match productivity irregardless of whether the worker in response to some later survey question characterizes the separation as a quit or permanent layoff according to this formulation of worker and firm attachments quits and permanent layoffs are at least in any sense relevant to actual resource allocation indistinguishable an implication of this model is of course that mobility enhances productivity see gary becker elisabeth landes and robert michael 1977 counter to this view stand models of job matching that suggest that the presence of transactions costs in the form of costly contract renegotiations preclude any easy application of the coase theorem to employment contracts most forcefully advocated by masanori hashimoto 1981 these models of job matching imply that quits and permanent layoffs are different the difference results from the fact that with costly contract renegotiation mobility is to a large extent determined by the actual rent sharing agreement formulated at the beginning of employment according to this view then the total value of the match does not exclusively determine job change and thus not all mobility is productivity augmenting this paper offers a model of job matching with costly post hire negotiations in some aspects similar to that of hashimoto but with particular relevance to the population of young workers only beginning their labor force participation while hashimoto s discussion concentrates on longer term firmspecific training decisions the current model focuses on the period immediately following hire when worker productivity is to a large extent governed by endowed capabilities rather than determined by learning on the job the theoretical focus on inexperienced workers as well as the corresponding youthful composition of the empirical sample are motivated to control for unobserved factors such as firm specific human capital stocks as much as possible in further contrast to hashimoto s emphasis the model yields empirical implications concerning the role of wages in the determination of mobility that contrast to the implications of an otherwise similar zero negotiations cost model of job matching derivation of the empirical implications concerning the relationship of wages to quits and layoffs represents the primary contribution of this paper finally empirical results are presented that at least for a sample of very young men over a short period of time department of economics university of houston houston tx 77004 i thank finis welch dan mitchell and the referee for comments on an earlier version of this paper

temporary stabilization predetermined exchange rates the paper analyzes the impact of a stabilization policy based on a temporary reduction in the rate of devaluation against a background in which a constant rate of devaluation has no real effects it is shown that the temporary policy does and furthermore that the real effects tend to become bigger in absolute value as the horizon of the temporary policy is shortened the central discussion is carried out in terms of a one good cash in advance model with perfect capital mobility and ramsey type consumers results are extended to account for home goods and variable velocity the roles of capital mobility and banking liberalization are briefly discussed

international experience on incentive program in support of fuel economy standards and labelling for motor vehicle a comprehensive review abstract the road transports especially the motor vehicles play a significant role in increment of energy consumption in the transportation sector however the harmful greenhouse gas ghg emissions from such vehicles which are the main causes of global warming have been increased as well one of the effective solutions to reduce the growth rate of energy consumption is the implementation of fuel economy standard and label other countries experiences indicate that the program is very beneficial for society environment and government the hierarchy of the program consists of the test procedure fuel economy standards fuel economy label and incentive program as a peak of the program reviews of the fuel economy standard can be found in many references however a few papers deal with the incentive program specifically therefore this paper aims to give a review on the implementation of the incentive program globally in support of fuel economy standard and label for the motor vehicles finally as the incentive program is necessary to support fuel economy standard and label it should be applied to the motor vehicles as soon as possible

perceptions of equity and the distribution of income this article develops a model in which quit rates and thus the income distribution depend on employee perceptions of the accuracy of employer assessments of individual productivity because these latter assessments affect wages when employees believe that these assessments are accurate income inequality tends to be high the model can account for the negative correlation across some countries of inequality and the extent to which inequality is deemed to be excessive it also fits the contrast in u s and french experiences concerning the tenure of highly educated workers with high wages relative to the tenure of lower paid workers

the price consumption puzzle of currency pegs abstract a defining stylized fact associated with exchange rate based stabilization programs is that their initial phase is characterized by several years of continuous expansion in private consumption and a gradual appreciation of the real exchange rate this paper shows that a large class of standard optimizing models is unable to account for this empirical regularity in particular models in this class predict that a gradual appreciation of the real exchange rate must necessarily be accompanied by a declining path of consumption the paper suggests several possible solutions to this problem and develops one in detail namely the relaxation of the assumption of time separability in preferences specifically it shows that under habit formation currency pegs induce a positive comovement between consumption and the real exchange rate the paper also establishes that habit formation provides an explanation for why in failed currency pegs a contraction in aggregate demand sets in before the collapse of the program

a theory of quits and layoffs with efficient turnover this paper answers the efficient turnover literature s long silence regarding the quit layoff distinction treating quits as worker initiated separations and layoffs as firm initiated separations i establish that the existence of layoffs is compatible with optimizing workers and firms forming and dissolving employment matches to exploit all the gains from trade the efficient turnover approach is shown to be consistent with many empirical regularities that distinguish quits from layoffs structural implications of the model are tested on data from the psid

are wages habit forming evidence from micro data although utility functions play a central role in economics the axiom that utility depends only on the absolute levels of its arguments is rarely tested this paper uses panel data on 2000 british employees who remain with the same employer and who are not promoted from one wave to the next it is shown that one important measure of well being overall job satisfaction is strongly positively correlated with the change in the worker s pay between waves but is unrelated to the current level of pay empirical tests suggest that a reference dependent satisfaction function where individual well being depends on current pay relative to past pay is more consistent with these regression results than are productivity or agency explanations of increasing wage profiles some evidence is presented of greater job satisfaction effects of pay rises for lower paid less well educated and younger workers these results provide some micro evidence consistent with the theory widespread in social science of habituation individuals may become used to any given level of consumption or income as such they tie in with the finding that a country s well being as measured by the average happiness of its citizens is only weakly correlated with its per capita gnp

the relative effects of employed and unemployed job search a lthough many early models of job search assumed that job seekers were unemployed economists have come to recognize the importance of on the job search mattila 1974 for example found that roughly 60 of quitters experienced no unemployment between jobs implying that the majority of voluntary job changers engaged in on the job search the choice of search mode i e employed vs unemployed search has been modelled in the theoretical search literature barron and mccafferty 1977 burdett 1978 however there have been no attempts to estimate empirically the determinants of this choice 2 some researchers have however examined the resulting wages associated with these two types of search and found a greater wage return to employed than to unemployed search mattila 1969 black 1980 however because voluntarily unemployed search involves forgoing income burdett 1978 while employed search does not abstracting from voluntary reductions in hours incomemaximizing job seekers would never quit to search unless the expected net return to unemployed search exceeded that for employed search thus the previously mentioned empirical findings at first glance might appear to contradict the assumption of income maximization by job seekers because some workers do quit into unemployment 3 in this paper it is argued that previous attempts to compare the returns of employed and unemployed job search suffer from a selectivity problem specifically searchers who accept offers without experiencing any unemployment are likely to have unobservable variables such as informal job contacts and ability which will raise the relative return to employed search compared to that of voluntarily unemployed job seekers 4 providing an explanation for higher wages for on the job searchers than for unemployed searchers this paper estimates the relative wage effects of employed and unemployed search and the determinants of the choice of search mode i e employed vs unemployed search unlike earlier work mattila 1969 black 1980 the previously mentioned selectivity problems are accounted for this is the first attempt to estimate the determinants of choice of search mode 5 without adjusting for selectivity bias as regards employed vs unemployed search it is found that employed search is associated with greater expected wage offers than unemployed search controlling for measurable personal characteristics however accounting for selectivity the expected wage offer given unemployed search is greater than that given employed search finally the greater is the difference between the expected offer given unemployed and that given employed search the more likely one is to choose unemployed search these findings suggest that quitting to search unemployed may be a wealth maximizing decision received for publication november 5 1980 revision accepted for publication august 17 1981 university of illinois at urbana champaign and arizona state university respectively professor low is partially supported by a faculty grant from the graduate college at arizona state university the authors thank francine blau wallace hendricks and two anonymous referees for comments and suggestions i for a summary of this literature see lippman and mccall 1976 2 barron and mccafferty 1977 do estimate an aggregate time series model of the log of the proportion of quits entering unemployment as a function of the vacancy rate proxied by the help wanted advertising index however such a model ignores search that does not lead to quits and does not include variables beyond the vacancy rate that influence an individual s choice of search mode i it is also possible that the forgone earnings due to unemployed search could in principle be less than the possible savings in direct search costs due to unemployed search relative to employed search see burdett 1978 in this case a lower wage return to unemployed search could imply that quitting was based on income considerations further individuals may have quit for nonwage reasons 4 black 1980 found that other things equal those who planned to seek new employment but did not quit had significantly lower wage growth than those who did not plan to search and did not quit this finding strongly suggests the likelihood of a selectivity bias black 1980 p 227 black s 1976 1980 data the michigan panel study of income dynamics psid for his work on employed search did not allow him to distinguish employed and unemployed search

union wage differentials in the public and private sectors a simultaneous equations specification the paper attempts to integrate new approaches to estimating union wage effects with the analysis of public private sector wage differentials estimates of the union differential in both public and private sectors allowing for the endogeneity of union status are presented the hypothesis that the recently measured rents to public sector employment primarily reflect the recent increase in unionization in that sector is examined and receives considerable empirical support there was evidence of positive selection into the union sector especially for private sector workers union status appears to be strongly influenced by the expected wage gain from joining the union sector

job duration seniority and earnings an important stylized fact about labor markets is that workers with longer seniority with their current employer have higher earnings than other workers with the same total labor market experience this study shows that workers in longer jobs earn more throughout than workers in a series of shorter jobs and that the measured positive cross sectional return seniority is largely a statistical artifact due to the correlation of seniority with an omitted variable representing the quality of the worker the job or the worker employer match the implication is tha t earnings do not in fact rise very much with seniority copyright 1987 by american economic association

options to quit abstract this paper develops a theoretical model of a worker s decision problem under uncertainty about the optimal separation time when holding a representative outside offer but facing fixed costs of quitting implications of the model s closed form solution are consistent with the quit behavior of workers from a large dutch company

insurance within the firm we evaluate the allocation of risk between firms and their workers using matched employer employee panel data unlike previous contributions this paper focuses on idiosyncratic shocks to the firm which are the correct empirical counterpart of the theoretical notion of diversifiable risk we allow for both temporary and permanent shocks to output and find that firms absorb temporary fluctuations fully but insure workers against permanent shocks only partially risk sharing considerations can account for about 15 percent of overall earnings variability the remainder originating from idiosyncratic shocks to individual workers our welfare calculations indicate that firms are an important vehicle of insurance provision

wages separations and job tenure on the job specific training or matching a general stochastic model of optimal job separation behavior is developed in the paper the model nests both the job training and the job matching hypotheses of the wage tenure relationship as special cases the purpose of the paper is to compare the implications of the two hypotheses for job turnover that expected wealth maximizing separation strategies are qualitatively identical under the two hypotheses is the principal theoretical result although the empirical implications of the two hypotheses for observations on the distribution of completed job spell lengths are similar as a consequence they are not quite identical

the job search behavior of employed youth an employed worker s search strategies include 1 employed not searching 2 employed searching and 3 unemployed searching the last requires that the worker quit to search under plausible assumptions on search costs the optimal algorithm involves a dual reservation wage strategy burdett 1978 the probability of on the job search increases as the current wage decreases relative to the distribution of alternative wages if the wage is sufficiently low the searcher quits to search substituting time for financial outlays estimates based on the national longitudinal survey of youth indicate that these calculations characterize the search strategies of young workers copyright 1991 by mit press

estimating compensating wage differentials using voluntary job changes evidence from germany the author develops a model predicting that in a labor market that attaches a wage premium to jobs with a disamenity a compensating wage differential the premium s upper bound will be defined by the average wage change of voluntary job movers whose consumption of the disamenity rises as a result of their move its lower bound by the wage change of those whose consumption of the disamenity falls these predictions will not hold if as predicted by a segmented labor market model the labor market attaches a wage penalty to workplace disamenities using longitudinal data on job characteristics and wages in germany in 1984 2001 the author estimates the market returns to four workplace disamenities heavy workload job insecurity poor hours regulation and a mismatch between skills possessed and skills required the results broadly support the existence of compensating differentials in the german labor market

a further contribution towards explaining why disinflation through currency pegging may cause a boom abstract we revisit the question of why exchange rate based erb disinflation is often expansionary we use an analytical dge model in discrete time with staggered wages if the policy is unanticipated and if the currency is pegged at the level it would have reached under unchanged policies then a boom occurs for preannounced erb disinflation our model also predicts a boom the explanation for both is that when wages are staggered wage setters have to be forward looking anticipating lower future inflation they reduce wages before the change in the exchange rate causing a favourable supply side effect on output

mandates buyouts and fuel tax rebates some economic aspects of biofuel policies using the uk as an example many governments mandate the blending of biofuels with fossil fuel supplies the paper raises the possibility that some firms might choose not to respect such mandates and cites the uk s experience where a buyout of the obligation is possible a simple economic framework is then used to explore some implications of mandate buyouts including situations when buyouts and road fuel tax rebates are applied together finally it discusses the design of buyout mandate schemes that could release raw materials from biofuel production following a future world food price shock

do wages rise with job seniority many previous studies have found a strong positive effect of job seniority tenure on wages this paper re examines the evidence using a simple instrumental variables scheme to deal with the fact that tenure is likely to be related to unobserved individual and job characteristics that affect the wage we use the variation of tenure over a given job match as the principal instrumental variable for tenure the variation in tenure over the job is uncorrelated by construction with the fixed individual and job match specific components of the error term of the wage equation our main finding is that the partial effect of tenure on wages is small and that general labour market experience and job shopping account for most wage growth over a career the strong cross section relationship between tenure and wages is due primarily to heterogeneity bias prior researchers see mincer and jovanovic 1981 bartel and borjas 1981 borjas 1981 cline 1979 and mellow 1981 and many others have established that job seniority has a strong positive relationship with wage rates in a cross section or a cross section time series of individuals in this paper we re evaluate the evidence concerning the partial effects on wages of job seniority tenure and total labour market experience the extent to which wages rise with tenure is important for several reasons first and foremost the wage tenure profile is a fundamental question about the structure of earnings over careers second the wage tenure profile is a key determinant of the extent to which the earnings power of individuals is tied to specific jobs and it is important for assessment of the losses suffered by displaced workers hamermesh 1984 third evidence that wages rise with job tenure has been used to explain the decline in quits with tenure since the wage growth on the current job lowers the probability that the worker will locate a superior alternative a growing theoretical literature surveyed in parsons 1984 has taken the evidence of a strong wage tenure profile at face value and sought to provide an explanation for the relationship the most prominent explanation is the theory of specific human capital oi 1962 becker 1962 mincer 1974 parsons 1972 kuratani 1973 and hashimoto 1980 in which the growth of wages with tenure holding experience constant is attributed to the worker s share of investments in firm specific skills more recently lazear 1981 has presented a supervision model of wage growth in which firms defer compensation as a means of inducing workers not to shirk freeman 1977 and harris and holmstrom 1982 provide an explanation for wage growth based on an insurance motive salop and salop 1976 nickell 1976 and guasch and weiss 1982 present adverse selection models of wage growth in which firms use a wage tenure profile as a

stabilization policies in developing countries what have we learned abstract the paper reviews the recent experience with stabilization programmes in latin america in the light of traditional and monetarist models of inflation and the exchange rate the traditional model links both inflation and payments problems to budget deficits the monetarist model too believes that inflation is caused by fiscal deficits but it takes a more optimistic view of stabilization full purchasing power parity and perfect capital mobility make stabilization just a question of the appropriate exchange rate policy and the proper rate of domestic credit creation the traditional view is substantially right as a long run model but it fails in the dynamics the monetarist model is as we know now fundamentally wrong as a short run description of the possibilities of inflation control there is need and room for a paradigm that places emphasis on the debt money mix in financing the budget on the stickiness of inflation rates and on the place of short run real exchange rate and real interest rate variations that these are key features of the transition phase is amply borne out by the devasting and unsuccessful experiences with monetarist stabilization in argentina chile and brazil

the endogeneity of union status an empirical test an unsettled issue in the literature relating to the relative wage effect of unions is the appropriate treatment of union status in a wage determination model in the context of a three equation model determining union membership and union and nonunion sector wage rates this paper presents an instrumental variables iv procedure for estimating the parameters of the wage equations and a test of the exogeneity of union status using the hausman specification test an advantage of our iv procedure in comparison to the widely used inverse mill s ratio procedure is that our procedure is a distribution free estimator whereas the inverse mill s ratio estimator hinges in the assumption that the error term of the choice equation is normally distributed using data for a sample of middle aged white workers we estimate the parameters of the union and nonunion wage equations with both procedures on the key question of the endogeneity of union status the hausman test decisively rejects the null hypothesis of exo

matching turnover and unemployment this paper develops the view that workers move into and out of the labor market because of changes in the perceived value of their market opportunities a search model is combined with a matching model to yield movement of workers from job to job and into and out of employment

european inflation dynamics abstract we provide evidence on the fit of the new phillips curve npc for the euro area over the period 1970 1998 and use it as a tool to compare the characteristics of european inflation dynamics with those observed in the u s we also analyze the factors underlying inflation inertia by examining the cyclical behavior of marginal costs as well as that of its two main components namely labor productivity and real wages some of the findings can be summarized as follows a the npc fits euro area data very well possibly better than u s data b the degree of price stickiness implied by the estimates is substantial but in line with survey evidence and u s estimates c inflation dynamics in the euro area appear to have a stronger forward looking component i e less inertia than in the u s d labor market frictions as manifested in the behavior of the wage markup appear to have played a key role in shaping the behavior of marginal costs and consequently inflation in europe

the effects of employer provided health insurance on worker mobility the authors use data from the 1984 survey of income and program participation sipp to investigate whether employer provided health insurance reduced worker mobility a phenomenon termed job lock the sipp provides information on variables particularly pension receipt job tenure and spouse job change that were omitted from previous studies and are the authors argue key to the estimation of welldefined mobility models for dual earner married men and women the authors estimate a model that accounts for the interaction between husbands and wives job change decisions for both married and single individuals the results provide fairly strong evidence ofjob lock among women but only weak indications of job lock among men the authors speculate that this finding reflects higher health care use by women than by men

wages nonwage job characteristics and the search behavior of employees this paper analyzes the search decision of employees empirically a maximum likelihood model consisting of a wage equation and a search equation in which the difference between the present and the nonobserved alternative market wage is included is estimated to investigate the importance of nonwage job characteristics and future wage prospects relative to the present wage the estimation results indicate that both present and future wages and nonwage job characteristics have a significant impact on the search decisions of employees copyright 1991 by mit press

income losses of women and men injured at work women and men injured at work in wisconsin during 1989 and 1990 have similar levels of lost earnings in the quarter of injury however in the three and one half years after the post injury quarter women lose an average of 9 2 percent of earnings while men lose only 6 5 percent even after accounting for covariates with a variant of the oaxaca blinderneumark decomposition the disparity in long term losses remains differences in injury related nonemployment account for about half the covariate adjusted gap over the four year post injury period changes in hours worked may explain all or part of the remaining gap gender differ

imperfect information and labor market bias against small and medium sized enterprises a korean case we examine the labor market s bias against small and medium sized enterprises focusing on the seoul digital industrial complex case we adopt heckman s approach to control selection bias and use primary data from questionnaire surveys conducted at both firm and employee levels we find that conventional firm specific factors such as wages fringe benefits and weekly work hours primarily explain the labor market bias but imperfect information is also positively associated with the bias for example a firm s inadequate ability to identify a pool of potential employee candidates or to provide them comprehensive firm or job specific information tends to worsen labor shortages and an employee s ex ante incomplete knowledge of on the job training or education opportunities tends to increase ex post turnover intentions our results suggest that reducing the market bias requires improving imperfect information as well as conventional firm specific conditions

the effect of job tenure on wage offers a wage offer can be either acceptable or unacceptable to a worker but in cross sectional and panel data only acceptable wage offers are observed an ols wage equation will not reveal how job tenure affects wage offers but rather will reveal how tenure affects acceptable wage offers by jointly modeling the firm s determination of the wage offer and the worker s decision to accept or reject the offer we are able to estimate the effect of job tenure on wage offers consistently in contrast to the usual ols results we find that job tenure has no statistically significant effect on wage offers

job moving residential moving and commuting a search perspective abstract we address the interrelationships between residential mobility labor market mobility and commuting the paper takes its starting point in recent findings in economic research which emphasise that job and residence relocation decisions imply forward looking decision making we examine job and residential mobility by means of bivariate models and interpret the outcomes in light of the search model

nominal interest rates consumption booms and lack of credibility a quantitative examination abstract exchange rate based stabilization programs in chronic inflation countries have often been accompanied by an initial expansion of private consumption followed by a contraction this consumption cycle has been attributed to lack of credibility in the sense that the public views the reduction in the devaluation rate as temporary this paper assesses the quantitative relevance of the temporariness hypothesis by comparing the predictions of a simple model to the actual figures for seven major programs the paper concludes that nominal interest rates must fall substantially for the temporariness hypothesis to account for an important fraction of the observed consumption booms

how does petroleum price and corn yield volatility affect ethanol markets with and without an ethanol use mandate the recent increase in ethanol use in the us strengthens and changes the nature of links between agricultural and energy markets here we explore the interaction of market volatility and the scope for policy to affect this interaction with a focus on how corn yields and petroleum prices affect ethanol prices mandates associated with new us energy legislation may intervene in these links in the medium term future we simulate stochastically a structural model that represents these markets and that includes mandates in order to assess how shocks to corn or oil markets can affect ethanol price and use we estimate that the mandate makes ethanol producer prices more sensitive to corn yields and less sensitive to changes in petroleum prices overall we note a discontinuity in these links that is caused by the mandate ethanol use can exceed the mandate if petroleum prices and corn yields are high enough but the mandate limits downside adjustments in ethanol use to low petroleum prices or corn yields

job mobility in market equilibrium this paper develops a simple stochastic job matching model and uses it to derive a set of testable restrictions on the conditional probability with which a worker will be observed to change jobs over time the restrictions describe the manner in which this probability varies with observable characteristics current wage labour market experience tenure on current job and past mobility econometric methods are also discussed and some illustrative calculations provided

relying on the information of interested parties we investigate the conventional wisdom that competition among interested parties attempting to influence a decisionmaker by providing verifiable information elicits all relevant information we find that if the decisionmaker is strategically sophisticated and well informed about the relevant variables and about the preferences of the interested party or parties competition may be unnecessary to achieve this result if the decisionmaker is unsophisticated or not well informed competition is not generally sufficient if the interested parties interests are sufficiently opposed however or if the decisionmaker is seeking to advance the parties welfare then competition can reduce or even eliminate the decisionmaker s need for prior knowledge about the relevant variables and for strategic sophistication in other settings only the combination of competition among information providers and a sophisticated skepticism is sufficient to allow effective decisionmaking