investment and interest rate policy abstract the paper s theorems reverse two standard results of new keynesian economics simply by appending endogenous investment to a benchmark imperfect competition sticky price model our results are a a passive interest rate rule where the monetary authority responds to inflation by lowering the real interest rate implies local equilibrium uniqueness whereas an active rule does not generate a locally unique equilibrium b a temporary exogenous increase in the nominal interest rate causes a temporary increase in output and investment extensions of the benchmark model including generalized preferences and alternative interest rate rules are also examined journal of economic literature classification numbers e12 e31 e52

learning and time varying macroeconomic volatility abstract this paper presents a dsge model in which agents learning about the economy can endogenously generate time varying macroeconomic volatility economic agents use simple models to form expectations and need to learn the relevant parameters their gain coefficient is endogenous and is adjusted according to past forecast errors the model is estimated using likelihood based bayesian methods the endogenous gain is jointly estimated with the structural parameters of the system the estimation results show that private agents appear to have often switched to constant gain learning with a high constant gain during most of the 1970s and until the early 1980s while reverting to a decreasing gain later on as a result the model can generate a pattern of volatility which is increasing in the 1970s and falling in the second half of the sample with a decline that can roughly match the magnitude of the so called great moderation in the 1984 2007 period the paper also documents how a failure to incorporate learning into the estimation may lead econometricians to spuriously find time varying volatility in the exogenous shocks even when these have constant variance by construction

optimal constrained interest rate rules we show that if policymakers compute the optimal unconstrained interest rate rule within a taylor type class they may be led to rules that generate indeterminacy and or instability under learning this problem is compounded by uncertainty about structural parameters since an optimal rule that is determinate and stable under learning for one calibration may be indeterminate or unstable under learning under a different calibration we advocate a procedure in which policymakers restrict attention to rules constrained to lie in the determinate learnable region for all plausible calibrations and that minimize the expected loss computed using structural parameter priors subject to this constraint

comparing four models of aggregate fluctuations due to self fulfilling expectations abstract this paper compares four equilibrium business cycle models with increasing returns to scale production technologies that allow for aggregate fluctuations due to self fulfilling expectations necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of stationary sunspot equilibria are derived numerical examples demonstrate that the degree of increasing returns necessary for the existence of stationary sunspot equilibria lies in the upper range of available empirical estimates the paper also shows that persistent fluctuations are not a necessary property of these four models when the only source of fluctuations is changes in people s expectations about the future path of the economy journal of economic literature classification numbers e32 d43

equilibrium indeterminacy and asset price fluctuation in japan a bayesian investigation this paper investigates sources of asset price fluctuation in japan using an estimated financial accelerator model for explicit treatment of expectational beliefs characterized by sunspots the model is analyzed over the parameter space where the equilibrium can be indeterminate we show that indeterminacy arises if the financial accelerator effect is sufficiently large according to our bayesian estimation results japan s economy was affected by sunspot shocks however the contribution of the sunspots to asset price volatility was low rather net worth and cost shocks drove the asset price fluctuation we find however that the sunspots substantially affected capital investment

do central banks respond to exchange rate movements a structural investigation abstract we estimate a small scale structural general equilibrium model of a small open economy using bayesian methods our main focus is the conduct of monetary policy in australia canada new zealand and the uk we consider generic taylor type rules where the monetary authority reacts in response to output inflation and exchange rate movements we perform posterior odds tests to investigate the hypothesis whether central banks do target exchange rates the main result of this paper is that the central banks of australia and new zealand do not whereas the bank of canada and the bank of england do include the nominal exchange rate in its policy rule this result is robust for various specification of the policy rule we also find that terms of trade movements do not contribute significantly to domestic business cycles

inflation expectations in turkey learning to be rational turkey implemented an ambitious restructuring of the economy in the past several years including the adoption of inflation targeting along with a floating exchange rate regime inflation came down from almost triple digits to single digits between 2001 and 2005 this particular episode of the turkish economy sets a genuine case study for investigating the possible changes in the behaviour of inflation expectations upon a regime shift accordingly this study analyses inflation expectations in turkey focusing especially on the post 2001 transition phase we first conduct classical tests of unbiasedness and efficiency using aggregate survey data between august 2001 and october 2007 to get a statistical benchmark for rationality we find that classical tests reject full rationality hypothesis for all series except next month s consumer price index cpi inflation expectations then we carry out time varying parameter tvp estimates based on a kalman filter to see how the coefficients in the classical tes

monetary policy and inflation in the 70s an influential paper by clarida gal i and gertler 2000 has attributed the great inflation of the 1970 to the violation of the taylor principle in the conduct of us monetary policy weak indeterminacy inducing response to expected inflation we evaluate this thesis in the context of a standard nk model against a version of the model that incorporates incomplete information learning about the true state of the economy the likelihood based estimation of the model overwhelmingly favors the specification with indeterminacy over the alternatives with determinacy independent of the presence and size of mis perceptions jel class e32 e52

using private forecasts to estimate the effects of monetary policy i develop a methodology that uses the forecasts of market participants and of policy makers to estimate the effects of monetary policy on output and inflation my approach has advantages over the standard practice of fitting a vector autoregression to the data i apply my methodology to data on output interest rates and prices i find that even using the federal reserve board s greenbook forecasts to control for the policy maker s information set prices rise initially in response to a monetary contraction this finding undermines the standard justification for including an index of commodity prices in vars

survey measures of expected u s inflation of real interest rates and cash flows for decisions concerning investment expenditures international capital flows and exchange rate movements hinge in large part on expected real yield differentials across countries the federal reserve needs reliable measures of expected inflation to formulate and gauge the thrust of monetary policy in fact inflation expectations have become more important to the fed given the diminished stability of the link between the monetary aggregates and gdp expenditures since the early 1980s and the greater role which has been thrust upon expected real short term interest rates in the implementation of federal reserve policy the issue of rationality of inflation expectations that is the extent to which agents form expectations without making systematic mistakes in their beliefs about what inflation will be is important if inflation expectations are formed rationally labor and financial markets will strongly tend to neutralize the potential redistributive effects of inflation over time financial capital will flow efficiently within and across national borders moreover some of the stronger claims of new classical macroeconomics like the claim that only unexpected monetary policy actions will

an investigation of the gains from commitment in monetary policy this paper proposes a simple framework for analyzing a continuum of monetary policy rules characterized by differing degrees of credibility in which commitment and discretion become special cases of what we call quasi commitment the monetary policy authority is assumed to formulate optimal commitment plans to be tempted to renege on them and to succumb to this temptation with a constant exogenous probability known to the private sector by interpreting this probability as a continuous measure of the lack of credibility of the monetary policy authority we investigate the welfare effect of a marginal increase in credibility our main finding is that in a simple model of the monetary transmission mechanism most of the gains from commitment accrue at relatively low levels of credibility in our benchmark calibration a commitment expected to last for only 6 quarters is enough to bridge 75 of the welfare gap between discretion and commitment this seems to justify the well known concern of monetary policy makers about their credibility even in a world with limited access to commitment technologies

testing for indeterminacy an application to u s monetary policy reply this paper considers a prototypical new keynesian model in which the equilibrium is undetermined if monetary policy is passive the likelihood based estimation of dynamic equilibrium models is extended to allow for indeterminacies and sunspot fluctuations we construct posterior weights for the determinacy and indeterminacy region of the parameter space and estimates for the propagation of fundamental and sunspot shocks according to the estimated model u s monetary policy post 1982 is consistent with determinacy whereas the pre volcker policy is not we find that before 1979 indeterminacy substantially altered the propagation of shocks

nominal price rigidity money supply endogeneity and business cycles abstract this paper investigates the ability of nominal price rigidity to explain the co movement of inflation with the cyclical component of output observed in the post war u s data a dynamic general equilibrium model is constructed with the introduction of monopolistic competition and nominal price rigidity in a standard real business cycle model allowing for an endogenous money supply rule it is then demonstrated that sticky price models can explain the observed associations between movements in inflation and output much better than flexible price models this result depends little on whether money supply is assumed to be endogenous or not

the persistence of the peso problem when policy is noisy abstract the peso problem the market s belief that a discrete event may occur has frequently been blamed for the persistence of on average mistaken forecasts of macroeconomic variables this paper demonstrates how beliefs that a policy process may have switched can induce apparent ex post biased forecasts of exchange rates even after the switch has occurred furthermore during this peso problem period exchange rates may appear to contain a speculative bubble component since they will systematically deviate from the levels implied by observing fundamentals ex post and the conditional variance of exchange rates will exceed the variance implied by observing fundamentals

trend inflation and monetary policy regimes in japan abstract this paper examines the dynamics of trend inflation in japan over the last three decades based on the smooth transition phillips curve model we find that there is a strong connection between the trend inflation and monetary policy regimes the results also suggest that the introduction of the inflation targeting policy and quantitative and qualitative easing in the beginning of 2013 successfully escaped from the deflationary regime but were not enough to achieve the 2 inflation target finally our results indicate the significance of exchange rates in explaining the recent fluctuations of inflation and the importance of oil and stock prices in maintaining the positive trend inflation regime

information rigidity and the expectations formation process a simple framework and new facts we propose a new approach to test the full information rational expectations hypothesis which can identify whether rejections of the null arise from irrationality or limited information this approach quantifies the economic significance of departures from the null by quantifying the underlying degree of information rigidity applying this approach to u s and international data of professional forecasters and other agents yields pervasive evidence consistent with models of imperfect information furthermore the proposed approach sheds new light on policies such as inflation targeting and those leading to the great moderation affecting expectations finally we document evidence of state dependence in the expectations formation process

education experience and allocative efficiency a dual approach a generalization of the dual non frontier profit function approach to evaluating allocative efficiency is developed that allows for training human capital variables to influence the efficiency level directly an application to pennsylvania dairy indicates that education and experience are substitutes and play a significant role in the level of efficiency while these operators are not allocating their variable inputs in an absolutely efficient manner relative efficiency can be achieved for four of six possible input combinations for prescribed levels of education and experience furthermore the estimates of the efficiency measures suggest that these operators are maximizing production rather than short run profits

permanent and transitory policy shocks in an empirical macro model with asymmetric information abstract an empirical model that allows for shifts in the inflation target and imperfect policy credibility is estimated imperfect credibility defined by differences between the perceived and actual inflation target obtains because private agents cannot correctly distinguish between permanent target shocks and transitory funds rate shocks learning affects responses to structural shocks important features include the absence of a price puzzle permanent nominal effects of aggregate supply shocks due to partial policy accommodation and the ability to examine responses to a permanent target change and expectations shocks perceptions of permanent target shocks explain sizable movements in bond yields and inflation

measuring research benefits in an imperfect market in this paper an imperfect market model is developed for evaluating agricultural research benefits the main finding is that the increases in societal gain and the producer s share of this gain are larger with a monopoly than with a competitive market the paper argues that if the market for an agricultural input or for a commodity is not competitive then use of a competitive model for assessing research benefits could lead to understatements of both producer and total benefits

ranking efficiency units in dea using bootstrapping an applied analysis for slovenian farm data this article explores how data envelopment analysis dea along with a smoothed bootstrap method can be used in applied analysis to obtain more reliable efficiency rankings for farms the main focus is the smoothed homogeneous bootstrap procedure introduced by simar and wilson 1998 to implement statistical inference for the original efficiency point estimates two main model specifications constant and variable returns to scale are investigated along with various choices regarding data aggregation the coefficient of separation cos a statistic that indicates the degree of statistical differentiation within the sample is used to demonstrate the findings the cos suggests a substantive dependency of the results on the methodology and assumptions employed accordingly some observations are made on how to conduct dea in order to get more reliable efficiency rankings depending on the purpose for which they are to be used in addition attention is drawn to the ability of the slice model implemented in gams to enable researchers to overcome the computational burdens of conducting dea with bootstrapping

measuring research benefits in an imperfect market second comment this note generalizes a finding about the necessary and sufficient conditions for research to generate greater benefits in the presence of distortions and highlights a significant source of bias in conventional cost benefit calculations

real business cycles and sunspot fluctuations are observationally equivalent abstract this paper points out that real business cycle models are observationally equivalent to externality models which we define as models with externalities and sunspots but without productivity shocks as far as standard first order systems are concerned however externality models turn out to be more flexible than rbc models this explains at least partly why previous studies have found that externality models perform better than standard rbc models at generating realistic business cycle behavior our results cast doubt on the arguments of farmer and guo 1994 and caballero and lyons 1992

economic efficiency in farm households trends explanatory factors and estimation methods factors explaining differences in economic efficiency between farms are of major interest to owners managers and other stakeholders as they strive to improve earnings and improve the chances of firm survival this study is undertaken to improve our understanding of interfarm differences in and opportunities to improve farm household efficiency in utilizing their land labor and capital resources to achieve household objectives the technical allocative and scale efficiencies of farm households are estimated using a nonparametric output based data envelopment analysis dea of a panel data set from 1993 to 2006 single and double bootstrapping procedures are used to estimate technical efficiency initial technical efficiency assuming variable returns to scale tev is estimated to be 0 83 using single bootstrapping the average bias corrected tev estimate is 0 70 using double bootstrapping the tev estimate is 0 72 allocative efficiency is estimated to be 0 81 scale efficiency is estimated to be 0 93 the only factor that is consistently associated with higher technical efficiency across analysis methods and years is larger farm size as measured by the log of farm income the significance of other factors changes with analysis methods

is inflation sticky abstract new keynesian sticky price models predict that monetary policy can affect real variables however they also predict that inflation can be reduced without depressing output or employment in fact bringing down inflation is costly presenting a challenge to the new keynesian model two departures from the new keynesian model predict costly disinflation one assumes sticky inflation rather than sticky prices while the other assumes less than perfectly rational expectations taking into account information from surveys of inflation expectations i find the evidence suggests that inflation is not sticky and that inflation expectations are less than perfectly rational

what drives inflation expectations in brazil an empirical analysis this study examines the macro economic determinants of survey inflation expectations in brazil since the adoption of inflation targeting in 1999 the results suggest that the inflation targeting framework has helped anchor expectations with the dispersion of inflation expectations declining considerably particularly during periods of high uncertainty we also find that apart from the inflation target the stance of fiscal policy as proxied by the ratio of the consolidated primary surplus to gdp has been instrumental in shaping expectations the importance of past inflation in determining expectations appears to be relatively low and the overall empirical evidence does not suggest the presence of substantial inertia in the inflation process

endogenous business cycles and the dynamics of output hours and consumption abstract this paper studies the business cycle fluctuations predicted by a two sector endogenous business cycle model with sector specific external increasing returns to scale it focuses on aspects of actual fluctuations that have been identified both as defining features of business cycles and as ones standard real business cycle models cannot explain for empirically realistic calibrations of the degree of returns to scale the results suggest that endogenous fluctuations do not provide the dynamic element that is missing in existing real business cycle models jel e32

investigating inflation persistence across monetary regimes under inflation targeting estimates of the indexation parameter in hybrid new keynesian phillips curves are either equal to zero or very low in the united kingdom canada sweden and new zealand analogous results hold for the euro area under the european monetary union and for switzerland under the new monetary regime under stable regimes with clearly defined nominal anchors inflation appears to be purely forward looking these results question the notion that the intrinsic inflation persistence found in post wwii u s data is structural in the sense of lucas carnegie rochester conference series on public policy 1 1976 19 46 and suggest that hardwiring inflation persistence in macroeconomic models is potentially misleading

learning about monetary policy rules abstract we study macroeconomic systems with forward looking private sector agents and a monetary authority that is trying to control the economy through the use of a linear policy feedback rule we use stability under recursive learning a la evans and honkapohja learning and expectations in macroeconomics princeton university press princeton new jersey 2001 as a criterion for evaluating monetary policy rules in this context we find that considering learning can alter the evaluation of alternative policy rules

indivisible labor and the business cycle abstract a growth model with shocks to technology is studied labor is indivisible so all variability in hours worked is due to fluctuations in the number employed we find that unlike previous equilibrium models of the business cycle this economy displays large fluctuations in hours worked and relatively small fluctuations in productivity this finding is independent of individuals willingness to substitute leisure across time this and other findings are the result of studying and comparing summary statistics describing this economy an economy with divisible labor and post war u s time series

on non uniqueness in rational expectations models an attempt at perspective abstract many macroeconomic models involving rational expectations give rise to an infinity of solution paths even when the models are linear in all variables some writers have suggested that this non uniqueness constitutes a serious weakness for the rational expectations hypothesis one purpose of the present paper is to argue that the non uniqueness in question is not properly attributable to the rationality hypothesis but instead is a general feature of dynamic models involving expectations it is also argued that there typically exists in a very wide class of linear rational expectations models a single solution that excludes bubble or bootstrap effects one that occur only because they are arbitrarily expected to occur a systematic procedure for obtaining solutions free from such effects is introduced and discussed in addition this procedure is used to interpret and reconsider several prominent examples with solution multiplicities including ones developed by fischer black and john b taylor

an application of the dea double bootstrap to examine sources of efficiency in bangladesh rice farming in this article we examine sources of technical efficiency for rice farming in bangladesh the motivation for the analysis is the need to close the rice yield gap to enable food security we employ the dea double bootstrap of simar and wilson 2007 to estimate and explain technical efficiency this technique overcomes severe limitations inherent in using the two stage dea approach commonly employed in the efficiency literature from a policy perspective our results show that potential efficiency gains to reduce the yield gap are greater than previously found statistically positive influences on technical efficiency are education extension and credit with age being a negative influence

what do you expect imperfect policy credibility and tests of the expectations hypothesis abstract the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates describes a conventional view of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy where bond rates reflect current and expected movements in the policy controlled rate however empirical rejections of the expectations hypothesis are commonplace and lead many to question this description of policy transmission this paper argues that failure to account for imperfect policy credibility may explain empirical rejections empirical rejections may occur even when changing anticipations of future short rates are the primary source of variation in bond rates and the standard term structure transmission channel remains valid

production organization and efficiency during transition an empirical analysis of east german agriculture enterprise restructuring is expected to improve efficiency in transition economies with data from former east germany we compare the efficiency of family farms and partnerships with large scale successor organizations of the collective and state farms lsos using parametric and nonparametric techniques we show that lsos display lower technical efficiency than do family farms and partnerships but that this difference is small and declining during transition mainly as a result of structural changes in agriculture family farms are not as scale efficient as partnerships and lsos and partnerships are superior to all other organizational forms

are inflation expectations rational abstract several recent papers report evidence of an apparent statistical bias in inflation expectations and interpret these findings as overturning the rational expectations hypothesis in this paper we investigate the validity of such an interpretation we present a computational dynamic general equilibrium model capable of generating aggregate behavior similar to the data along several dimensions by construction model agents form rational expectations we run a standard regression on equilibrium realizations of inflation and inflation expectations over sample periods corresponding to those tests performed on actual data and find evidence of an apparent bias in inflation expectations our experiments suggest that this incorrect inference is largely the product of a small sample problem exacerbated by short run learning dynamics in response to infrequent shifts in monetary policy regimes

measuring research benefits in an imperfect market second reply in a recent comment on voon 1994 holloway 1999 has made the following conclusions under conditions that are almost identical to ones considered by voon 1994 and by sexton and sexton 1996 pivotal shifts in marginal costs generate strictly greater benefits under monopoly this paper reconsiders the above conclusion a simple geometric approach similar to alston et al 1988 and voon and edwards 1991 is used for the reassessment the analysis shows that a pivotal shift in the marginal costs generates greater benefits under perfect competition than it does under monopoly this is opposite to holloway s finding the model is depicted in fig 1 instead of a parallel shift in the mc curve as in voon 1994 a pivotal shift above the origin is assumed this implies that the supply price elasticity is greater than unity e 1 see voon and edwards 1991 under monopoly

monetary policy regimes and beliefs this paper investigates the role of beliefs over monetary policy in propagating the effects of monetary policy shocks within the context of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in this model monetary policy periodically switches between low and high money growth regimes when individuals cannot observe the regime directly they must draw inferences over regime type based on historical money growth rates the authors show that for an empirically plausible money growth process beliefs evolve slowly in the wake of a regime change as a result their model is able to capture some of the observed persistence of real and nominal variables following such a regime change

constructing and estimating a realistic optimizing model of monetary policy abstract a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model with real and nominal both price and wage rigidities succeeds in capturing some key nominal features of u s business cycles additive technology shocks as well as multiplicative shocks are introduced and shown to be crucial monetary policy is specified as an interest rate targeting rule following developments in the structural vector autoregression var literature the interaction between real and nominal rigidities is essential to reproduce the liquidity effect of monetary policy the model is estimated by maximum likelihood on u s data and its fit is comparable to that of an unrestricted first order var besides producing reasonable impulse responses and second moments this model replicates a feature of u s business cycles never captured by previous research with dsge models that an increase in interest rates predicts a decrease in output two to six quarters in the future

consumption sentiment and economic news this paper investigates the influence of economic news on consumer sentiment and examines whether news shocks changes in coverage that would not be expected from incoming data on economic fundamentals have aggregate effects using monthly u s data and a structural vector autoregression i find that 1 sentiment is affected by news shocks 2 after filtering out effects of news shocks shocks to sentiment still have positive effects on consumer spending and 3 news shocks influence both spending and unemployment in significant though transitory ways these results are consistent with other evidence of a role of nonfundamental factors in aggregate fluctuations jel e21 e32 d12

changing beliefs and systematic rational forecast errors with evidence from foreign exchange this paper addresses a new interpretation to the appearance in the early 1980s of systematic errors in forecasting the dollar exchange rate following a change in the process of a fundamental variable market participants revise their beliefs about the process using bayes rule since the market does not immediately recognize the change forecast errors are on average wrong during a period when the market is rationally learning for conservative parameter values the learning behavior of the dollar exchange rate in the early 1980s appears consistent with about half of the dollar s underprediction implied by the forward market copyright 1989 by american economic association

changes in the federal reserve s inflation target causes and consequences this paper estimates a new keynesian model to draw inferences about the behavior of the federal reserve s unobserved inflation target the results indicate that the target rose from 1 1 4 percent in 1959 to over 8 percent in the mid to late 1970s before falling back below 2 1 2 percent in 2004 the results also provide some support for the hypothesis that over the entire postwar period federal reserve policy has systematically translated short run price pressures set off by supply side shocks into more persistent movements in inflation itself although considerable uncertainty remains about the true source of shifts in the inflation target jel e31 e32 e52

the nature of the farm abstract using a model based on a trade off between moral hazard incentives and gains from specialization this paper explains why farming has generally not converted from small family based firms into large factory style corporate firms nature is both seasonal and random and the interplay of these qualities generates moral hazard limits the gains from specialization and causes timing problems between stages of production by identifying conditions in which these forces vary we derive testable predictions about the choice of organization and the extent of farm integration to test these predictions we study the historical development of several agricultural industries and analyze data from a sample of over 1 000 farms in british columbia and louisiana in general seasonality and randomness so limit the benefits of specialization that family farms are optimal but when farmers are successful in mitigating the effects of seasonality and random shocks to output farm organizations gravitate toward fa

is private farming more efficient than socialized agriculture this paper examines the technical efficiency of state and private farms in poland for the period 1960 74 we find that the average technical efficiency of the two types of farms does not differ although the dispersion of efficiency levels is greater among state farms than among private ones we do find clear evidence of allocative inefficiency with state farms oversupplied with fertilizer and machinery

indeterminacy home production and the business cycle a calibrated analysis abstract in this paper i present a business cycle model with one market sector that produces a standard good and another that produces a non market or home good the model can have multiple equilibria and therefore cycles driven only by self fulfilling expectations with low externalities to market production in particular an upward sloping aggregate labor demand as e g in farmer and guo j economic theory 63 1994 42 72 is not required for indeterminacy the effect of technology shocks is also studied in all cases the time series that are generated have properties that are comparable to the real us postwar series

technical and scale efficiency of crop and livestock farms in poland does specialization matter l efficacite technique et d echelle des exploitations agricoles polonaises est calculee par la methode data envelopment analysis l etude porte sur les differences selon l orientation productive en grandes cultures ou elevage a deux dates de la transition en 1996 et en 2000 l article examine de plus la variabilite statistique des resultats d efficacite ceux ci sont revus a la lumiere des intervalles de confiance construits gr ce au bootstrapping en moyenne les exploitations d elevage ont une efficacite technique et d echelle superieure aux exploitations de grandes cultures l efficacite d echelle est toutefois tres elevee pour les deux orientations l inefficacite technique semble donc due principalement a une inefficacite technique pure c est a dire a une gestion inefficace la faible education des agriculteurs en est une raison majeure en 2000 64 des exploitations d elevage et 86 des exploitations de grandes cultures presentaient des retours d echelle croissants ce resultat suggere des recommandations politiques afin de supprimer les incitations a garder une structure operationnelle fragmentee et de stimuler le marche de la terre il s agit en particulier d ameliorer la legislation concernant la location des terres et de modifier le systeme de retraite agricole

tracking u s inflation expectations with domestic and global indicators abstract are foreign variables important for tracking u s inflation expectations this paper estimates a reduced form model that takes both domestic and global indicators of economic slack and inflationary pressures into account our main findings point towards the instability of the estimated parameters over the last four decades in particular global indicators appear to have played a statistically significant role in shaping forecasters expectations until the mid 1980s by contrast the u s monetary policy stance turns out to be relevant in the 1980s and 1990s we relate this finding to the more aggressive monetary policy conduct implemented by the fed since the end of the volcker experiment

sunspot fluctuations ulnder zero nominal interest rates abstract we empirically examine to what extent self fulfilling expectations i e sunspots affected macroeconomic fluctuations in japan under the zero interest rate policy according to our bayesian estimation results sunspots had substantial effects on both output and inflation

sticky price and limited participation models of money a comparison abstract we provide new evidence that models of the monetary transmission mechanism should be consistent with at least the following facts after a contractionary monetary policy shock the aggregate price level responds very little aggregate output falls interest rates initially rise real wages decline by a modest amount and profits fall we compare the ability of sticky price and limited participation models with frictionless labor markets to account for these facts the key failing of the sticky price model lies in its counterfactual implications for profits the limited participation model can account for all the above facts but only if one is willing to assume a high labor supply elasticity 2 percent and a high markup 40 percent the shortcomings of both models reflect the absence of labor market frictions such as wage contracts or factor hoarding which dampen movements in the marginal cost of production after a monetary policy shock 1997 elsevier science b v

imperfect credibility and inflation persistence in this paper we formulate a dynamic general equilibrium model with staggered nominal contracts in which households and rms use optimal ltering to disentangle persistent and transitory shifts in the monetary policy rule the calibrated model accounts quite well for the dynamics of output and insation during the volcker disinsation and implies a sacri ce ratio very close to the estimated value our approach indicates that insation persistence and substantial costs of disinsation can be generated in an optimizing agent framework without relaxing the assumption of rational expectations or relying on arbitrary modi cations to the aggregate supply relation jel classi cation e31 e32 e52

self fulfilling expectations and the inflation of the 1970s evidence from the livingston survey abstract using survey data on expectations we examine whether the response of monetary policy to sudden movements in expected inflation contributed to the persistent high inflation of the 1970s the evidence suggests that prior to 1979 the fed accommodated temporary shocks to expected inflation which then led to persistent increases in actual inflation we do not find this behavior in the post 1979 data among commonly cited factors oil and fiscal shocks do not appear to have triggered an increase in expected inflation that eventually resulted in higher actual inflation

monetary policy shocks and financial conditions a monte carlo experiment abstract the effects of monetary policy shocks on financial conditions are often estimated by appealing to recursive vector autoregressions vars we assess the ability of this class of vars to recover the true effects of a monetary policy shock via a monte carlo experiment in which the data generating process is a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model featuring macro finance interactions and estimated with u s quarterly data our dsge model predicts a negative and significant reaction of financial conditions to an unexpected monetary policy tightening we point out that such reaction is just overlooked by recursive vars moreover we show that cholesky vars may substantially underestimate the welfare costs due to macroeconomic fluctuations

has monetary policy become more effective we investigate the implications of changes in the structure of the u s economy for monetary policy effectiveness estimating a vector autoregression over the pre and post 1980 periods we provide evidence of a reduced effect of monetary policy shocks in the latter period we estimate a structural model that replicates well the economy s response in both periods and perform counterfactual experiments to determine the source of the change in the monetary transmission mechanism and in the economy s volatility we find that by responding more strongly to inflation expectations monetary policy has stabilized the economy more effectively in the post 1980 period

economic efficiency in polish peasant farming an international perspective one decade following the market transition in poland the agricultural sector still exhibits low productivity policy makers often describe the sector as fragmented and inefficient to understand why small scale farming in poland is inefficient despite longstanding secure property rights a survey of economic efficiency in southern agriculture was conducted and compared with limited studies of efficiency in poland the most important issues particularly related to farm size and efficiency are price risk uncertainty and low rural development comparative studies across regions with varying institutional arrangements and economic organization are powerful but must be made carefully and critically

does global liquidity help to forecast u s inflation we construct a measure of global liquidity using the growth rates of broad money for the g7 economies global liquidity produces forecasts of us inflation that are significantly more accurate than the forecasts based on us money growth phillips curve autoregressive and moving average models the marginal predictive power of global liquidity is strong at three years horizons results are robust to alternative measures of inflation

trend inflation indexation and inflation persistence in the new keynesian phillips curve purely forward looking versions of the new keynesian phillips curve nkpc generate too little inflation persistence some authors add ad hoc backward looking terms to address this shortcoming we hypothesize that inflation per sistence results mainly from variation in the long run trend component of inflation which we attribute to shifts in monetary policy we derive a version of the nkpc that incorporates a time varying inflation trend and examine whether it explains the dynamics of inflation when drift in trend inflation is taken into account a purely forward looking version of the model fits the data well and there is no need for backward looking components jel e12 e31 e52 in this paper we consider the extent to which guillermo calvo s 1983 model of nominal price rigidities can explain inflation dynamics without relying on arbitrary backward looking terms in its baseline formulation the calvo model leads to a purely forward looking new keynesian

determinants and resource use efficiency of better cotton an innovative cleaner production alternative abstract the resource constraints along with socioeconomic attributes and capabilities of farmers cause variations in the adoption of agricultural technologies these variations represent an inefficiency source in complete utilization of management practices and epitomize a lack of achieving full potential offered by better cotton an innovative cleaner production alternative therefore this research focused on identifying the potential areas of improvement in better cotton farmers input use by investigating the technical and economic efficiencies as well as the factors determining the resource use efficiency technical allocative and economic efficiencies of better cotton were analyzed using input oriented data envelopment analysis factors affecting technical and economic efficiencies were identified using bootstrapped truncated regression there was variation in technical efficiency and it was positively influenced by farmers education farming experience and drainage status whereas it was negatively influenced by the number of household members involved in farming and the area under cotton the mean economic efficiency of 56 indicated that at the current productivity level inefficient farmers can reduce their costs by 44 the economic efficiency was negatively affected by the number of household members involved in farming and the intensity of using crop management practices thus efforts should be made to improve input use efficiency of particularly those better cotton farmers who are currently operating inefficiently this efficiency analysis aims to provide recommendations to policy makers and promoters of better cotton as to which practices and inputs should be focused while implementing better cotton as a cleaner alternative to conventional cotton

fitting observed inflation expectations abstract the paper provides evidence on the extent to which inflation expectations generated by a standard christiano et al 2005 smets and wouters 2003 type dsge model are in line with what observed in the data we consider three variants of this model that differ in terms of the behavior of and the public s information on the central banks inflation target allegedly a key determinant of inflation expectations we find that i time variation in the inflation target is needed to capture the evolution of expectations during the post volcker period ii the variant where agents have imperfect information is strongly rejected by the data iii inflation expectations appear to contain information that is not present in the other series used in estimation and iv none of the models fully capture the dynamics of this variable

productive efficiency of specialty and conventional coffee farmers in costa rica accounting for technological heterogeneity and self selection a steep decline in coffee prices at the producer level led to considerable pressure for farmers in costa rica and producer countries all over the world one possible reaction was moving to specialty markets where price pressure was perceived to be lower we use original survey data from 2002 2003 and 2003 2004 to analyze the factors influencing participation in specialty markets and to estimate separate production functions for specialty and conventional coffee farmers allowing for farm specific inefficiencies applying a sample selection framework we find significant selection bias in the sub sample of specialty farmers and evidence for the overestimation of efficiency if this bias is not adequately controlled for among the most important factors that influence farm specific efficiency levels in the two sub samples are the availability of additional income activities experience in coffee cultivation and membership in cooperatives based on the results we derive policy recommendations to improve farmers production performance and ability to cope with the effects of the coffee crisis these policy measures include the provision of extension services with respect to farm management skills the creation of income opportunities in rural areas and the support of farmer owned cooperatives

one and multi directional conditional efficiency measurement efficiency in lithuanian family farms abstract this paper analyses farming efficiency by the means of the partial frontiers and multi directional efficiency analysis mea in particular we apply the idea of the conditional efficiency framework to the mea approach to ensure that observations are compared to their homogeneous counterparts moreover this paper shows that combining the traditional one directional and multi directional efficiency framework yields valuable insights it allows one to identify what factors matter in terms of output production and input consumption the application deals with lithuanian family farms for which we have a rich dataset the results indicate that the output efficiency positively correlates to a time trend and negatively to the subsidy share in the total output the mea based analysis further suggests that the time trend has been positively affecting the productive efficiency due to increase in the labour use efficiency meanwhile the increasing subsidy rate has a negative influence upon mea efficiencies associated with all the inputs

stabilisation policy rational expectations and price level versus inflation targeting a survey we survey literature comparing inflation targeting it and price level targeting pt as macroeconomic stabilisation policies our focus is on new keynesian models and areas that have seen significant developments since ambler s 2009 price level targeting and stabilisation policy a survey journal of economic surveys 23 5 974 997 survey optimal monetary policy the zero lower bound financial frictions and transition costs of adopting a pt regime ambler s conclusion that pt improves social welfare in new keynesian models is fairly robust but we note an interesting split in the literature pt consistently outperforms it in models where policymakers commit to simple taylor type rules but results in favour of pt when policymakers minimise loss functions are overturned with small deviations from the baseline model since the beneficial effects of pt appear to hang on the joint assumption that agents are rational and the economy new keynesian we discuss survey and experimental evidence on rational expectations and the applied macro literature on the empirical performance of new keynesian models overall the evidence is not clear cut but we note that new keynesian models can pass formal statistical tests against macro data and that models with rational expectations outperform those with behavioural expectations i e heuristics in direct statistical tests we therefore argue that policymakers should continue to pay attention to pt

real business cycles and the animal spirits hypothesis abstract we calibrate a quantitative equilibrium macroeconomic model with an aggregate technology that is subject to increasing returns and show that this model may display fluctuations at business cycle frequencies even when there are no shocks to the fundamentals of the economy these fluctuations are due to the self fulfilling beliefs of investors which we call animal spirits we compare the impulse response functions predicted by our model and by two other more standard models with a four variable vector autoregression on u s data our animal spirits economy is the most successful of the three at matching broad features of the dynamic responses in the data journal of economic literature classification numbers e00 e3 e32

measuring research benefits in an imperfect market reply to holloway voon s original claim voon 1994 was that the benefits of generating through research a parallel shift in a monopolist s marginal cost curve exceeded the benefits from generating the same shift if the curve represented the market supply curve for a competitive industry as we noted in a subsequent comment this result was wrong with voon s error being due to the use of incmrect normalization procedures in his simu lation analysis we further articulated the general principle that welfare from an innovation in a mono poly industry would be greater than in a structurally equivalent competitive industry if and only if the deadweight loss due to monopoly decreased as a consequence of that innovation finally we opined that this condition will normally not be met in mono poly or other imperfectly competitive structures because in seeking to capture benefits from the inno vation a monopoly or oligopoly industry will generate less output expansion than would occur under perfect competition thereby causing the deadweight loss to increase

globalization macroeconomic performance and monetary policy the paper argues that many of the exaggerated claims that globalization has been an important factor in lowering inflation in recent years just do not hold up globalization does however have the potential to be stabilizing for individual economies and has been a key factor in promoting economic growth the paper then examines four questions about the impact of globalization on the monetary transmission mechanism and arrives at the following answers i has globalization led to a decline in the sensitivity of inflation to domestic output gaps and thus to domestic monetary policy no ii are foreign output gaps playing a more prominent role in the domestic inflation process so that domestic monetary policy has more difficulty stabilizing inflation no iii can domestic monetary policy still control domestic interest rates and so stabilize both inflation and output yes iv are there other ways besides possible influences on inflation and interest rates in which globalization may have affected the transmission mechanism of monetary policy yes