dynamics of energy related co2 emissions in china during 1980 to 2002 the relative importance of energy supply side and demand side effects abstract based on a newly developed model that integrates energy production transformation and consumption processes this paper compares the relative importance of some traditionally recognized factors operating on the energy demand side with a body of newly defined factors on the supply side in terms of their contribution to trends in china s co2 emissions related to the total primary energy supply c tpes before 1996 changes in china s c tpes were mainly driven by changes on the energy demand side factors operating on the energy supply side played trivial roles during the period 1996 2000 however increasing demand side effects declined dramatically and at the same time decreasing effects from supply side expanded significantly such changes resulted directly in a decline in the c tpes the decreasing effects from international trade as well as statistical imbalances between supply and demand reinforced the declining trend the shrinkage of demand side effects mainly arose from the slowdown of economic growth and speed of decrease in energy intensity the expansion of supply side effects was principally attributed to the speed of decrease in gross unit consumption in transformation sectors especially in electricity sector therefore the acceleration of efficiency improvements in end use and transformation sectors accounted for the decline in the c tpes over the period 1996 2000

evidence of nonlinearity in daily stock returns this article applies a newly developed statistical technique to time series of daily rates of return of 15 common stocks the technique involves estimating the bispectrum of the observed time series the bispectrum is defined as the double fourier transform of the third order cumulant function if the process generating rates of return is linear with independent innovations then the skewness of the bispectrum will be constant the article describes a test that can detect nonconstant skewness in the bispectrum hence if the test rejects constant skewness a nonlinear process is implied as a consequence the test can distinguish between white noise and purely random noise the results suggest that daily stock returns are generated by a nonlinear process

decomposition analysis of co2 emission intensity between oil producing and non oil producing sub saharan african countries abstract the need to decompose co2 emission intensity is predicated upon the need for effective climate change mitigation and adaptation policies such analysis enables key variables that instigate co2 emission intensity to be identified while at the same time providing opportunities to verify the mitigation and adaptation capacities of countries however most co2 decomposition analysis has been conducted for the developed economies and little attention has been paid to sub saharan africa the need for such an analysis for ssa is overwhelming for several reasons firstly the region is amongst the most vulnerable to climate change secondly there are disparities in the amount and composition of energy consumption and the levels of economic growth and development in the region thus a decomposition analysis of co2 emission intensity for ssa affords the opportunity to identify key influencing variables and to see how they compare among countries in the region also attempts have been made to distinguish between oil and non oil producing ssa countries to this effect a comparative static analysis of co2 emission intensity for oil producing and non oil producing ssa countries for the periods 1971 1998 has been undertaken using the refined laspeyres decomposition model our analysis confirms the findings for other regions that co2 emission intensity is attributable to energy consumption intensity co2 emission coefficient of energy types and economic structure particularly co2 emission coefficient of energy use was found to exercise the most influence on co2 emission intensity for both oil and non oil producing sub saharan african countries in the first sub interval period of our investigation from 1971 1981 in the second subinterval of 1981 1991 energy intensity and structural effect were the two major influencing factors on emission intensity for the two groups of countries however energy intensity effect had the most pronounced impact on co2 emission intensity in non oil producing sub saharan african countries while the structural effect explained most of the increase in co2 emission intensity among the oil producing countries finally for the period 1991 1998 structural effect accounted for much of the decrease in intensity among non oil producers while co2 emission coefficient of energy use was the major force driving the decrease among oil producing countries the dynamic changes in the co2 emission intensity and energy intensity effects for the two groups of countries suggest that fuel switching had been predominantly towards more carbon intensive production in oil producing countries and less carbon intensive production in non oil producing ssa countries in addition to the decomposition analysis the article discusses policy implications of the results we hope that the information and analyses provided here would help inform national energy and climate policy makers in ssa of the relative weaknesses and possible areas of strategic emphasis in their planning processes for mitigating the effects of climate change

after the paris agreement measuring the global decarbonization wedges from national energy scenarios the new bottom up approach of the paris agreement calls for a better understanding of the domestic dimension of development pathways and of the implications for global emissions trajectory to this end it is of strategic importance to provide a common framework that makes it possible to identify the key decarbonization wedges at the national level and to highlight the potential benefits of international cooperation the article proposes an advanced index decomposition analysis methodology based on sectoral energy service indicators and on a specific decomposition in the power sector for quantifying the contribution of different mitigation strategies it is applied to national deep decarbonization pathways elaborated in the deep decarbonization pathway project ddpp by the sixteen largest ghg emitting countries in a global perspective the results reveal the key role of energy efficiency and decarbonization of energy carriers in the industry sector deployment of renewables in the power sector and to a lesser extent coal gas substitution and efficiency and energy decarbonization in the transport sector the analysis also calls for a deeper understanding of the role a reduction in energy service demand can play in mitigation scenarios and of the respective contribution for industry of energy efficiency and structural change

value line rank and firm size this paper studies the relation between value line s successful record in predicting relative stock price movements and the firm size effect the data suggest little direct relation between the two phen omena value line tends not to rank small firm stocks and small firm stocks that are ranked are more likely to receive a low rank than la rge firm stocks within each size sorted quintile of the market the mean payoffs on costless positions constructed according to value lin e s recommendations are positive copyright 1987 by the university of chicago

the structural changes and determinants of household energy choices and energy consumption in urban china addressing the role of building type abstract understanding the energy use and choice behaviors in urban china is essential to curb its energy consumption and air pollutant emissions current energy consumption estimates for urban households in china rarely account for the effects of building types on energy choice behavior thus may lead to biased policy implications in this paper we estimate the determinants of household energy consumption for different energy choice scenarios through the seemingly unrelated regression sur model using urban household data the empirical results show that household use of various energy carriers is driven by household income fuel price demographics building attributes and lifestyles results show building types have a significant effect on household energy consumption behaviors households living in old houses have less access to clean energy such as piped gas income and price elasticities of energy consumption vary with energy type in each scenario and there exist certain substitution effects among different types of energy carriers in particular inter fuel substitute elasticities between coal and clean energy are asymmetric our study highlights the significance of city planning and infrastructure expansion policies and also offers a better basis for coordinating and designing energy policies in urban china and other developing countries

portfolio rebalancing and the turn of the year effect this paper finds that for the 1935 1986 period the market s risk return relation does not have a january seasonal the findings differ from those of other studies due to the use of value weighted rather than equally weighted portfolios inferences are sensitive to the weighting procedure because of the small firm return patterns in january in particular even in those januaries for which the market return is negative small firm returns are positive and they are more positive the higher is beta this is consistent with the portfolio rebalancing explanation of the turn of the year effect since at least 1926 the average return on small firms in january has been unusually high a phenomenon known as the turn of the year effect in this paper we present new evidence regarding the risk return characteristics of small firms in january we find that for small firms there is a positively sloped riskreturn relation in both up and down markets this pattern is difficult to reconcile with the belief that the high return on small firms in january is equilibrium compensation for risk bearing we show how these patterns in small firms returns have led others to conclude that the market s risk return relation has a january seasonal in particular rozeff and kinney 21 and tinic and west 22 23 among others using equally weighted portfolios formed on the basis of historical betas have found a steeper slope for the capm s risk return relation in january than in other months we demonstrate that this pattern exists only for small firms consequently statistical inferences about the risk return relation are heavily dependent upon whether equally weighted or value weighted portfolio returns are used in the estimation we show that for 1935 86 when monthly cross sectional regressions are estimated using value weighted portfolio returns there is no more of a statistically significant difference in the estimated return to risk bearing in january than in the other eleven months of the year the notion that there is a january seasonal in the capm s risk return relation for the us has rapidly become accepted knowledge for example corhay hawawini and michel 6 accept this conclusion and investigate whether other

index decomposition analysis applied to co2 emission studies index decomposition analysis ida was first extended from energy consumption to energy related co2 emission studies in 1991 since then many studies have been reported covering various countries and emission sectors however unlike the case of energy consumption studies a comprehensive literature survey that focuses specifically on emission studies has so far not been reported in this paper we attempt to fill this gap by reviewing 80 papers appearing in peer reviewed journals from 1991 to 2012 in this application area the first part of this paper deals with the developments with regard to the ida approaches used by researchers and the scope and focus of their studies in the second part the empirical results reported in the surveyed studies are analyzed consolidated and presented by emission sector the objective is to reveal the relative contributions of key effects on changes in the aggregate carbon intensity and this is done by emission sector and by country the findings of both parts are useful in understanding the development of ida in the application area of emission study as well as the key drivers of aggregate carbon intensities in the past and their possible future developments

decomposition of aggregate carbon intensity for the manufacturing sector comparison of declining trends from 10 oecd countries for the period 1971 1991 abstract as with total energy consumption or aggregate energy intensity changes in aggregate carbon intensity may also be decomposed or attributed to changes in various components including fuel mix for electricity generation final energy mix sub sectoral economic activity and sub sectoral energy intensities the adaptive weighted divisia rolling base year index specification is applied to total carbon emissions from the manufacturing sector of 10 oecd countries for the period 1971 1991 declines in aggregate carbon intensity for these countries range from 70 and may be primarily attributed to decreases in energy intensity i e increases in the average factor productivity of energy however these declines in aggregate carbon intensity appear to have a complex linkage to increases in energy prices as well as changes in other determinants of gross industrial output

optimal intensity targets for greenhouse gas emissions trading under uncertainty uncertainty is an obstacle for commitments under cap and trade schemes for emission permits we assess how well intensity targets where each country s permit allocation is indexed to its future realized gdp can cope with uncertainties in international greenhouse emissions trading we present some empirical foundations for intensity targets and derive a simple rule for the optimal degree of indexation to gdp using an 18 region simulation model of a cooperative global cap and trade treaty in 2020 under multiple uncertainties and endogenous commitments we show that optimal intensity targets could reduce the cost of uncertainty and achieve significant increases in global abatement the optimal degree of indexation to gdp would vary greatly between countries including super indexation in some advanced countries and partial indexation for most developing countries standard intensity targets with one to one indexation would also improve the overall outcome but to a lesser degree and not in all individual cases although target indexation is no magic wand for a future global climate treaty gains from reduced cost uncertainty and the potential for more stringent environmental commitments could justify the increased complexity and other potential downsides of intensity targets

risk return and equilibrium a revisit this paper reports the results of tests of the major implications of the two parameter capital asset pricing model the findings indicate that the relationship between stock returns and systematic risk contains important nonlinearities during 1935 82 these nonlinearities cannot be ascribed to previously documented anomalies related to firm size or january seasonality moreover the test results appear to be sensitive to the choice of the proxy for the market portfolio

the turn of the year in canada a number of investigators have reported that january stock returns in the u s exceed returns for other months of the year this paper documents a similar finding for canadian stocks over the period 1951 1980 however canada did not introduce a capital gains tax until 1973 and the paper reports that january returns in canada exceed returns for other months of the year before and after this date thus these data do not support the tax loss selling pressure hypothesis as the entire explanation for the turnof the year effect in stock returns nor by implication do they support the tax lossselling pressure hypothesis as the complete explanation for the small firm effect in u s stocks returns recently keim 9 has reported that returns on nyse and ase firms with small market values exceed by significant margins returns on firms with large market values this result was previously reported by banz 1 and reinganum 11 but keim s analysis shows that most of the excess return for small firms is concentrated in january indeed it is concentrated in the first two weeks in january roll 13 also documents this phenomenon and investigates a number of possible explanations for it 2 after rejecting several possible nonexploitable explanations roll is left with year end tax loss selling pressure of the sort discussed by branch 2 dyl 5 and givoly and ovadia 6 as the most likely explanation of this result according to the tax loss selling pressure hypothesis toward the end of the year stockholders sell stocks that have declined in price during the year investors do this to take advantage of the opportunity to write off capital losses against ordinary income in computing their federal income taxes the year end sell off exerts downward pressure on stock prices as soon as the tax and calendar year ends the selling pressure is relieved and stock prices quickly rebound to their equilibrium levels roll 13 presents some evidence consistent with this hypothesis specifically he finds a negative correlation between stock returns in january and returns over the previous 12 months that is stocks that decrease in value during the year tend to be big gainers in january roll also finds that

sensitivity of the bank stock returns distribution to changes in the level and volatility of interest rate a garch m model abstract the objective of this paper is to employ the generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic in the mean garch m methodology to investigate the effect of interest rate and its volatility on the bank stock return generation process this framework discards the restrictive assumptions of linearity independence and constant conditional variance in modeling bank stock returns the model presented here allows for shifts in the volatility equation in response to the changes in monetary policy regime in 1979 and 1982 to be estimated arch garch and volatility feed back effects are found to be significant interest rate and interest rate volatility are found to directly impact the first and the second moments of the bank stock returns distribution respectively the latter also affects the risk premia indirectly the degree of persistence in shocks is substantial for all the three bank portfolios and sensitive to the nature of the bank portfolio and the prevailing monetary policy regime

carbon intensity changes in the asian dragons lessons for climate policy design abstract there is a growing political interest in carbon intensity targets because they are the basis for climate pledges from relevant developing countries such as china they may be also the basis for policy designs in developed countries like eu members this paper develops a comprehensive econometric study on the main drivers of national emissions intensity in emerging countries in east asia this regional focus responds to their pivotal position in global economic growth and remarkable trends in carbon emissions intensity the main hypothesis of this paper is that the nature of economic growth has a major effect on carbon intensity trends that deserves some attention accordingly the novelty of this paper is to examine the contribution of intensive and extensive gdp growth for carbon intensity abatements labour productivity is revealed to be the main factor responsible for major carbon intensity reductions by asian dragons whereas household energy per capita and industrial energy per worker contributed in the opposite direction consequently intensity targets may become meaningless for real climate action contributions if they do not take into account labour productivity trends

marketing costs and instability in the international grain trade fixed factors in the international grain marketing system reduce flexibility and make adjustment to variable trade volumes difficult a theoretical model is used to show how this causes marketing costs with trade instability to exceed those occurring under stability also it is demonstrated that the marketing system increases the adverse effects of price variation on importers and exporters supporting empirical evidence primarily dealing with ocean shipping is presented the results suggest that stable trade volumes may reduce marketing costs significantly thus the marketing system should be considered in questions dealing with instability in the international grain trade

how ambitious are china and india s emissions intensity targets abstract several developing economies have announced carbon emissions targets for 2020 as part of the negotiating process for a post kyoto climate policy regime china and india s commitments are framed as reductions in the emissions intensity of the economy by 40 45 and 20 25 respectively between 2005 and 2020 how feasible are the proposed reductions in emissions intensity for china and india and how do they compare with the targeted reductions in the us and the eu in this paper we use a stochastic frontier model of energy intensity to decompose energy intensity into the effects of input and output mix climate and a residual technology variable we use the model to produce emissions projections for china and india under a number of scenarios regarding the pace of technological change and changes in the share of non fossil energy we find that china is likely to need to adopt ambitious carbon mitigation policies in order to achieve its stated target and that its targeted reductions in emissions intensity are on par with those implicit in the us and eu targets india s target is less ambitious and might be met with only limited or even no dedicated mitigation policies

decomposition analysis of co2 emissions from electricity generation in china abstract electricity generation in china mainly depends on coal and its products which has led to the increase in co2 emissions this paper intends to analyze the current status of co2 emissions from electricity generation in china during the period 1991 2009 and apply the logarithmic mean divisia index lmdi technique to find the nature of the factors influencing the changes in co2 emissions the main results as follows 1 co2 emission from electricity generation has increased from 530 96 mt in 1991 to 2393 02 mt in 2009 following an annual growth rate of 8 72 coal products is the main fuel type for thermal power generation which accounts for more than 90 co2 emissions from electricity generation 2 this paper also presents co2 emissions factor of electricity consumption which help calculate co2 emission from final electricity consumption 3 in china the economic activity effect is the most important contributor to increase co2 emissions from electricity generation but the electricity generation efficiency effect plays the dominant role in decreasing co2 emissions

decomposition of co2 emissions change from energy consumption in brazil challenges and policy implications this study evaluates the changes in co2 emissions from energy consumption in brazil for the period 1970 2009 emissions are decomposed into production and consumption activities allowing computing the full set of energy sources consumed in the country this study aims to develop a comprehensive and updated picture of the underlying determinants of emissions change from energy consumption in brazil along the last four decades including for the first time the recently released data for 2009 results demonstrate that economic activity and demographic pressure are the leading forces explaining emission increase on the other hand carbon intensity reductions and diversification of energy mix towards cleaner sources are the main factors contributing to emission mitigation which are also the driving factors responsible for the observed decoupling between co2 emissions and economic growth after 2004 the cyclical patterns of energy intensity and economy structure are associated to both increments and mitigation on total emission change depending on the interval the evidences demonstrate that brazilian efforts to reduce emissions are concentrated on energy mix diversification and carbon intensity control while technology intensive alternatives like energy intensity has not demonstrated relevant progress residential sector displays a marginal weight in the total emission change

the robustness of risk return nonlinearities to the normality assumption in a recent study tinic and west 1986 empirically reexamine the risk return relationship posited by the traditional mean variance capm they find a positive nonlinear relationship between risk and return except during january when the market rewards bearing nonsystematic risk this study examines the hypothesis that nonnormality of re turn distributions may account for some of these anomalous results we compare shalit and yitzhaki s 1984 mean extended gini capm an equilibrium asset pricing relation that is independent of the form of the underlying asset distribution with the traditional capm our results indicate that the nonlinear risk return relationship and the size and january effects are robust to nonnormality of return distributions

extensive and intensive growth in a neoclassical framework abstract extensive growth based on the expansion of inputs is likely to be subject to diminishing returns therefore it is often viewed as having no effect on per capita magnitudes in the long run this essay argues that periods of extensive growth through capital accumulation may be a precursor to periods of intensive growth during which output per unit of input grows through endogenous technical change such a sequence of stages of development occurs as capital accumulation affects the incentives to engage in labor saving technical change a steady rise in the capital labor ratio affects the relative scarcity of factors of production their expected relative price and induces innovation investments

misspecification of capital asset pricing this study documents empirical anomalies which suggest that either the simple one period capital asset pricing model capm is misspecified or that capital markets are inefficient in particular portfolios based on firm size or earnings price e p ratios experience average returns systematically different from those predicted by the capm furthermore the abnormal returns persist for at least two years this persistence reduces the likelihood that these results are being generated by a market inefficiency rather the evidence seems to indicate that the equilibrium pricing model is misspecified however the data also reveals that an e p effect does not emerge after returns are controlled for the firm size effect the firm size effect largely subsumes the e p effect thus while the e p anomaly and value anomaly exist when each variable is considered separately the two anomalies seem to be related to the same set of missing factors and these factors appear to be more closely associated with firm size than e p ratios

calculating economy wide energy intensity decline rate the role of sectoral output and energy shares abstract we specify formulas for computing the rate of decline in economy wide energy intensity by aggregating its two determinants technical efficiency improvements in the various sectors of the economy and shifts in economic activity among these sectors the formulas incorporate the interdependence between sectoral shares and establish a one to one relation between sectoral output and energy shares this helps to eliminate future energy intensity decline scenarios which involve implausible values of either sectoral share an illustrative application of the formulas is provided using within sector efficiency improvement estimates suggested by lightfoot green and harvey

co2 emissions from electricity generation in seven asia pacific and north american countries a decomposition analysis abstract the logarithmic mean divisia index lmdi method of complete decomposition is used to examine the role of three factors electricity production electricity generation structure and energy intensity of electricity generation affecting the evolution of co2 emissions from electricity generation in seven countries these seven countries together generated 58 of global electricity and they are responsible for more than two thirds of global co2 emissions from electricity generation in 2005 the analysis shows production effect as the major factor responsible for rise in co2 emissions during the period 1990 2005 the generation structure effect also contributed in co2 emissions increase although at a slower rate in contrary the energy intensity effect is responsible for modest reduction in co2 emissions during this period over the 2005 2030 period production effect remains the key factor responsible for increase in emissions and energy intensity effect is responsible for decrease in emissions unlike in the past generation structure effect contributes significant decrease in emissions however the degree of influence of these factors affecting changes in co2 emissions vary from country to country the analysis also shows that there is a potential of efficiency improvement of fossil fuel fired power plants and its associated co benefits among these countries

swedish co2 emissions 1993 2006 an application of decomposition analysis and some methodological insights this study undertakes a decomposition analysis to identify the drivers of carbon dioxide emissions change in the swedish business and industry sectors 1993 2006 on aggregate energy intensity decreased but this does not seem to have been very important for reducing emissions rather fuel substitution seems to have been more important which is in line with findings from the decomposition literature on sweden however at the sectoral level we find no clear pattern of the effect of fuel substitution and energy intensity on emissions we also draw some methodological conclusions decomposition analysis should be undertaken at the most disaggregate level possible assessing decomposition results by summing results over several time periods leads to biased results and decomposition analysis should not be based only on some initial and final years of a long time period furthermore we address the problem of double counting energy flows in decomposition analysis of aggregate effects when the energy sector is included and point out potential problems related to output measured in monetary terms

how can china reach its co2 intensity reduction targets by 2020 a regional allocation based on equity and development in late 2009 the chinese government committed to cut its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product gdp by 40 to 45 of 2005 levels by 2020 this has raised the issue of how to allocate the co2 reduction target regionally to meet the national reduction target to meet this objective the following aspects may be taken into consideration equity principles common but differentiated responsibilities intensity reduction target fulfillment and economic difference and reduction potential among provinces this paper selects per capita gdp accumulated fossil fuel related co2 emissions and energy consumption per unit of industrial added value as indicators for emission reduction capacity responsibility and potential respectively based on these three indicators a comprehensive index is developed and an intensity allocation model constructed as decision makers may have different preferences when allocating the reduction burden we allocate different weights to the indicators analyzing the results using cluster analysis the following aspects may also be considered together with the national regional development strategy to determine how to share the burden the reduction potential of various regions implementation potential of the plans and promotion of a highly efficient low carbon economic development model

seasonality in canadian stock prices a test of the tax loss selling hypothesis a popular hypothesis to explain the anomalous january returns of common stocks is based on the argument that there is considerable tax loss selling by investors toward the end of the year the purpose of this study is to test the tax loss selling hypothesis with data on canadian stocks although the introduction of capital gains tax in canada seems to have affected the behavior of stock returns the findings do not support the proposition that taxinduced trading is the sole cause ofthe seasonality in stock returns in canada i introduction over the past several years a number of studies have shown that the returns on common stocks in general and the stocks of small companies in particular tend to be abnormally high during the month of january keim 10 demonstrated quite clearly that a very high percentage of the abnormal positive returns gener ated on stocks with low market capitalizations occurs during january with the returns during the first five trading days of the year accounting for most of the anomalous behavior his results were recently confirmed by roll 14 who re ported that around 37 percent of the annual differences in the returns on the equally weighted and value weighted indices of nyse and amex stocks is ac counted for by what happens in the five trading days from the last trading day in december through the fourth trading day in january a popular hypothesis to explain the so called january effect in stock re turns is based on the argument that there is considerable end of the year tax lossselling by investors originally proposed by wachtel 19 it asserts that inves tors try to realize losses towards the end of the year to reduce their taxes thereby putting downward pressure on stock prices according to the hypothesis once

market models and heteroscedasticity of residual security returns bickel s tests provide attractive robust alternatives to traditional tests of heteroscedasticity nyse securities have homoscedastic residuals once nonnormality of security returns is allowed some portfolio designs may generate some heteroscedastic residuals but this heteroscedasticity is reduced by the kraus litzenberger quadratic market model this result suggests a misspecification in the traditional market model

risk return and equilibrium an extension this study extends a recent empirical reexamination of the risk ret urn relationship by examining the possibility that an omitted size re lationship may account for the anomalous results h levy s generaliz ed capital asset pricing model provides the theoretical basis for incorporating the impact of firm size on expected return by examining the relative importance of unsystematic risk in pricing closely held securities compared to pricing widely held securities in so doing the empirical analysis also provides a test of an implication of the generalized capital asset pricing model two methodologies are used t o test the hypotheses empirically the results indicate that even thou gh size has a significant impact on the risk return relationship it apparently does not account for the anomalous results this implicati on is consistent under both methodologies copyright 1988 by the university of chicago

risk aversion uncertain information and market efficiency abstract this paper develops and tests the uncertain information hypothesis as a means of explaining the response of rational risk averse investors to the arrival of unanticipated information the theory predicts that following news of a dramatic financial event both the risk and expected return of the affected companies increase systematically and that prices react more strongly to bad news than good an empirical investigation of over 9000 marketwide and firm specific events produces results consistent with these predictions we conclude that the market reacts to uncertain information in an efficient if not instantaneous manner

using logarithmic mean divisia index to analyze changes in energy use and carbon dioxide emissions in mexico s iron and steel industry using international comparisons and log mean divisia index this paper analyzes energy and co2 emission trends of mexico s iron and steel industry during the period 1970 2006 examining co2 emissions related to energy use and production process the decomposition analysis is based on the structure efficiency analysis for international comparisons considering industrial structure and the best available technology results show that for the period 1970 2006 activity drove up primary energy use by 227 instead of the actual 133 while structure and efficiency effects drove it down by 5 and by 90 respectively the important improvement in mexican iron and steel primary energy efficiency reduced the gap between best international practice and actual primary energy consumption from 103 in 1970 to only 15 in 2006 co2 emissions from fuel consumption and production process increased by 134 and in addition to structure and efficiency fuel share effect also drove down emissions by 4 2 in the entire period

factors shaping aggregate energy intensity trend for industry energy intensity versus product mix understanding the mechanisms of change of energy consumption in industry has attracted much attention since the 1973 world oil crisis a popular line of research has been to decompose changes in the aggregate energy intensity of industry to give the relative impacts arising from energy intensity change and product mix change using a decomposition technique many empirical studies covering a large number of countries have been reported the main objective of this paper is to put together the empirical results reported in these studies in a coherent framework and identify possible systematic features of particular interest are the basic trends in this line of research the relative importance of energy intensity change and product mix change possible variations over time and between country groups in the energy impacts of these changes and inconsistencies in findings among studies an overview of the decomposition technique including its strengths weaknesses and role in industrial energy consumption studies is also presented

does diversity matter a fresh inquiry into the energy economy and environment nexus the article extends the literature on the nexus among economy environment and energy by incorporating an index of electricity generation diversity in production and emission functions the index i

decomposing the decoupling of co2 emissions and economic growth in brazil abstract this paper examines the occurrence of a decoupling between the growth rates in economic activity and co 2 emissions from energy consumption in brazil from 2004 to 2009 this decoupling was highlighted when economic activity and co 2 emissions moved in opposite directions in 2009 more generally we observe several periods of relative decoupling in brazil but not to the extent witnessed in 2009 to identify the determinants of emissions change we develop a decomposition model based on a log mean divisia index lmdi framework the results indicate that the carbon intensity and energy mix are the main determinant of emissions reduction in brazil between 2004 and 2009 modifications in the economy structure are also associated to emission mitigation in the period such evidence demonstrates similarities with events of decoupling registered for the interval 1980 1994 in brazil finds from brazil differ from observations in other countries in which improvement in energy intensity has been the most common determinant of emissions reduction

energy conservation and co2 emission reduction in china s 11th five year plan a performance evaluation in the 11th five year plan fyp 2005 2010 the chinese government initiated a series of energy saving and emission reduction policies in many key fields in response to environmental pollution and climate change this paper quantitatively evaluates the performance of energy conservation and co2 emission reduction in this period the impact of these policies and potentials by integrating the contributions of energy conversion efficiency and energy utilization efficiency improvement industrial restructuring fuel mix shift and renewable energy development in a unified framework as a first attempt to introduce energy conversion efficiency improvement into a decomposition approach comprehensive and specific policies are summarized as a policy list to be investigated the results show that energy intensity and conversion efficiency effects were mainly responsible for driving down energy consumption by 637 4 mtce and 85 4 mtce respectively and they reduced co2 emissions by 1345 3 mt and 243 8 mt respectively due to a significant improvement in the 11th fyp period most of the contributions made by the conversion efficiency effect 94 come from thermal power generation and the emission coefficient effect reduced co2 emissions by 17 4 mt through developing renewable energy economic growth is still the biggest driver of energy consumption and increasing emissions while industrial restructuring and fuel mix shift effects contributed relatively little developing renewable energy and promoting economic restructuring to limit the increase of energy intensive sectors are still the main challenges and the next policy focus to achieve the targets for energy saving and carbon emission reduction in the 12th five year plan

risk and return abstract this paper examines the seasonality in the basic relationship between expected return and risk during 1935 82 the results reveal that the positive relationship between return and risk is unique to january the risk premiums during the remaining eleven months are not significantly different from zero

how could emissions trading benefit developing countries abstract this paper aims to show how an emissions trading system could work if some participating entities are allocated an emissions budget or non binding target this will allow them to sell allowances if their actual emissions are less than their budget but will not obligate them to buy allowances if their emissions exceed their budget different rules aiming at ensuring the environmental integrity of such a system are considered parties to the framework convention on climate change may wish to consider building a regime where developing countries are allocated emissions budgets on some provisions of the kyoto protocol and in full respect with the principles of the convention in any case such system would be complementary to the clean development mechanism the potential benefits would be to provide non annex i developing countries with substantial capital inflows and stimulate their economic growth to allow annex i industrialised countries achieving their kyoto commitments at the lowest possible cost and to achieve global participation towards the objective of the convention while reducing the risk of creating tropical hot air by giving some developing countries more allowances than they need under a business as usual scenario

decomposition of co2 emissions over 1980 2003 in turkey abstract there is a multi dimensional need for studying the energy situation in turkey and to obtain insight into the development of co2 emissions on the one hand recent projections of the oecd show that turkey has a yearly gdp growth potential of over 7 on the other hand recent projections of undp and world bank indicate that the level of co2 emission is going to rise six fold by 2025 with respect to the level of emissions in 1990 it is a great challenge to both meet the growth target and keep the co2 under control thereupon this paper tries to unfold factors that explain co2 emissions by undertaking a complete decomposition analysis for turkey over the period 1980 2003 the analysis shows as is common to relatively fast growing economies that the biggest contributor to the rise in co2 emissions is the expansion of the economy scale effect the carbon intensity and the change in composition of the economy which nearly move in tandem also contribute to the rise in co2 emissions albeit at a slower rate the energy intensity of the economy which is decreasing is responsible for a modest reduction in co2 emissions hence in congruence with the scale effect a decoupling of carbon emissions and economic growth is not found in turkey over the period 1980 2003

do indicators have politics a review of the use of energy and carbon intensity indicators in public debates abstract in this paper we analyse how energy and carbon intensity indicators which have huge popularity among policy makers are framed in the discourse of think tanks consulting groups and other stakeholders what emerges from the analysis of public documents reports and policy briefs is that intensity indicators are often framed uncritically and unreflectively our analysis highlights three fundamental themes that emerge from public debates around intensity indicator first efficiency and intensity often framed in terms of productivity are used equivalently second intensity is perceived as a measure of win win sustainability in which economic growth can be decoupled from energy consumption without a substantial restructuring of the productive system third the analysis suggests that energy and carbon intensity indicators are attractive for policy makers especially in the so called developing world because they can be used to design political targets e g paris agreement without questioning the right to economic growth of powerful emerging economies like the brics the paper shows the strong limitations of intensity indicators and their potential do misguide policymakers

revisiting the case for intensity targets better incentives and less uncertainty for developing countries abstract in the debate on post kyoto global climate policy intensity targets which set a maximum amount of emissions per gdp figure as prominent alternative to kyoto style absolute emission targets especially for developing countries this paper re examines the case for intensity targets by critically assessing several of its properties namely i reduction of cost uncertainty ii reduction of hot air iii compatibility with international emissions trading iv incentive to decouple carbon emissions and economic output decarbonization and v use as a substitute for banking borrowing relying on simple analytical models it is shown that the effect on cost uncertainty is ambiguous and depends on parameter values and that the same holds for the risk of hot air that the intensity target distorts international emissions trading that despite potential asymmetries in the choice of abatement technology between absolute and intensity target the incentive for a lasting transformation of the energy system is not necessarily stronger under the latter and finally that only a well working intensity target could substitute banking borrowing to some extent but also vice versa overall the results suggest that due to the increased complexity and the potentially only modest benefits of an intensity target absolute targets remain a robust choice for a cautious policy maker

revisiting environmental kuznets curves through the energy price lens abstract the goal of this paper is to provide new insights to elucidate the inconclusive results from the environmental kuznets curve ekc empirical literature for the first time in empirical literature an econometric analysis includes the relative prices for several energy sources the paper provides strong evidence on the relevance of energy prices to co 2 emissions accordingly one reason for the lack of agreement in the ekc literature may be the absence of energy prices in empirical exercises the presence of relative energy price changes in the econometric specification confirms a monotonic and positive relationship between co 2 and gross domestic product gdp therefore we may conclude that there is a decoupling process but without reaching any turning point on that relationship the policy implications are straightforward direct climate action by policy makers is required to break the positive relationship between co 2 and gdp that conclusion has been reinforced by the reduction of energy prices since the middle of 2014 otherwise the trend in energy prices may reverse the relative decarbonisation processes accounted for in recent years in major developed countries

measuring wellbeing performance of carbon emissions using hybrid measure and meta frontier techniques empirical tests for g20 countries and implications for china abstract a quantitative measure of performance that integrates national level carbon emission profiles with key parameters of social and economic wellbeing can provide an effective management tool for policy interventions this paper constructs non parametric evaluation and decomposition models using hybrid measure and meta frontier techniques the proposed models are employed to estimate the wellbeing performance of carbon emissions wpce and identify the sources of wpce inefficiency empirical analyses based on the group 20 g20 countries for the 2000 2015 period shows the worst performance is in the brics country group i e brazil russia india china and south africa known for rapid growth whereas the developed and the developing economies of the g20 group show positive trajectories of performance as for china its performance measure of wpce was the lowest among the g20 indicating significant potential for further improvement the analysis also highlights the role of managerial failure as the primary driver of inefficiency more important than technological inefficiency in explaining efficiency loss within the g20 countries this critical finding the relevance and importance of managerial capability suggests the need for a high level of attention to governance and managerial capacity to ensure continued improvements in performance on carbon emissions and human wellbeing a lesson to be drawn from this study is that china s policies to promote a low carbon economy can benefit from increased priority given to low carbon technological innovation for the energy system transition and enhancement of environmental governance and managerial capacity to achieve a long term sustainability

emissions intensity targeting from china s 12th five year plan to its copenhagen commitment china is currently the world s largest single source of fossil fuel related co2 emissions in response to pressure from the international community and in recognition of its role in global climate change mitigation the chinese government has announced a series of climate policy commitments in both the copenhagen accord and its domestic 12th 5 year plan to gradually reduce emissions intensity by 2020 emissions intensity reduction commitments differ significantly from emission level reduction commitments that are commonly adopted by developed economies in this paper we investigate the economic implications of china s recent commitments to reduce emissions intensity and highlight the complexities involved in modelling intensity targets under uncertainty using g cubed an intertemporal computable general equilibrium model of the world economy we show that china s emissions intensity targets could be achieved with a range of low and high growth emissions level trajectories corresponding to low and high growth gdp scenarios which lead to different welfare consequences

integration and causality in international freight markets modeling with error correction and directed acyclic graphs 1 introductionin january 1985 the baltic exchange developed the then known baltic freight index bfi which in may 1985 would become the underlying asset of the baltic international freight futures exchange biffex contract a contract designed to hedge uncertainty associated with volatile freight rates on the basis of their exposure to the risk of adverse freight rate fluctuations ship owners and cargo owners charterers could buy or sell biffex contracts to protect their freight rate revenue or control their freight rate cost respectively in addition to its once use for futures trading the bfi is also considered to be the leading indicator of the condition in the dry bulk shipping markets on a daily basis it provides accurate information about the level of freight rates across a variety of shipping routes worldwide this information is extremely valuable for shipping market agents and is an invaluable tool in their decision making process this is so because in an industry such as shipping where trades are being concluded across the globe there is not a central reporting place to record and monitor the level of activity in the markets the principal objective of this article is to assess the degree of interconnectivity between the major shipping routes that constitute the bfi across different time horizons reflecting the typical trading patterns in this market to this end we employ directed acyclic graphs dags spirtes glymour and scheines 1993 which enable us to assess this issue in a dynamic manner based on an error correction model ecm of freight rates we also develop a framework for estimating forecast error decompositions by employing dags from a practical standpoint the information provided by innovation accounting techniques coupled with dag analysis provides an intuitive method for assessing the information flows from the shipping markets and allows us to make an assessment on whether the underlying freight index on which the futures contract is traded is correctly composed the current article therefore makes significant contributions to the literature from several angles to date research has not estimated the relationships in a truly dynamic manner and has as such failed to discuss the implications for derivatives and physical trading in addition the application of innovation accounting in this study is different from most other studies in the sense that we use the causal ordering of variables as indicated by the estimated dags for the orthogonalization of the contemporaneous innovation covariance as suggested by swanson and granger 1997 this step is crucial in providing sound inference in innovation accounting techniques finally investigation of this issue has important implications for the purposes of futures trading as the biffex contract was eventually delisted in april 2002 in this article we identify whether the index is correctly composed and whether there are any obvious patterns or redundancies within the index that may have led to the demise of the futures contract indeed our analysis provides a mechanism for deciding upon the correct index and has obvious yet profound implications for other research in the area of index construction the rest of the article is as follows section 2 offers a brief discussion of freight indices section 3 outlines the methodologies employed in the article including an introduction to dags and section 4 describes the underlying properties of the data series section 5 presents the empirical results and section 6 concludes 2 freight indices and freight futuresgiven uncertainty surrounding freight rates the benefits of providing a futures market in freight rates has been recognized by market practitioners for a long time however the freight futures market was eventually established only in 1985 the reason is that the underlying asset of the market the service of seaborne transportation is not a physical commodity that can be delivered at the expiry of the futures contract

a fundamental study of the seasonal risk return relationship a note two features of many capital asset pricing theories are a that the relationship between risk and expected returns is linear and b that risk is defined as the covariability of an asset s returns with the returns on a properly defined hedging portfolio among such theories the sharpe 9 lintner 7 capital asset pricing model capm the black 1 capm and the ross 8 arbitrage pricing theory apt have received the greatest attention despite earlier evidence in support of the capm 1 recent findings by tinic and west 11 challenge both the completeness of beta as a measure of relevant risk and the linearity of the relationship between risk and expected returns in a separate study tinic and west 10 also demonstrate that beta risk may not be priced by the market except in january and to a lesser extent july gultekin and gultekin 5 report that apt factors are also not priced in non january months the above tests involve cross sectional regressions of realized security returns against various measures of risk that are estimated in time series regressions in preceding periods portfolio grouping procedures are used to create dispersion in the risk estimates and hopefully also in the average realized returns portfolio formation also helps to eliminate estimation errors however since the actual hedging portfolios and the securities risk exposures are unobservable it is difficult to determine whether the above findings reflect a the absence of a riskreturn relationship or b inadequacies in testing these specific asset pricing models this study seeks to disentangle the above two interpretations by comparing the month to month holding period return spreads between stock and t bill returns no need exists to calculate beta or other risk estimators because stocks are universally accepted as being more risky than government t bills if these relative risk rankings are correct and if a consistent risk return relationship exists then the average monthly holding period return spread should be systematically positive however we find that between 1927 and 1983 average spreads between even small firms stocks and t bills are significantly greater than zero only in january and to a lesser extent july subperiod results are similar thus we fail to find a pervasive risk return relationship and its absence cannot be attributed to misspecification of asset pricing models or to nonstationary or inefficient estimates of beta

stock return anomalies and the tests of the apt this paper shows that the empirical tests of the arbitrage pricing theory apt model are very sensitive to the anomalies observed in january in the stock returns data there is a strong seasonal pattern in the estimates of the risk premia from the apt model the most important implication of the findings in this paper is that the apt model can explain the risk return relation mostly for january once the january returns are excluded from the data there is no significant relation between the expected stock returns and the risk measures predicted by the apt model it is now a very well known phenomenon that stock returns exhibit a peculiar seasonal pattern while such a seasonal pattern in stock returns is an interesting phenomenon in itself and has yet to be fully explained there is a serious implication of the observed seasonality in stock returns on the tests of the assetpricing models 1 tinic and west 17 for example report that the risk return relation described by the capital asset pricing model capm also exhibits a similar seasonality in january a result rozeff and kinney 16 report as well more importantly however they show that only one month january shows a consistently positive and reliable relation between expected return and risk once the data for january are excluded from the analysis of the risk return tradeoff the estimates of risk premia are no longer reliably different from zero although tinic and west do not offer an explanation for their findings their results raise serious questions about the empirical tests of the capm and ultimately its validity as a viable model to explain the pricing of risky assets the purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of stock return seasonality on the empirical tests of the arbitrage pricing theory apt a number of researchers argue on both theoretical and empirical grounds that the apt is a good alternative to the capm although there is a growing body of empirical literature on the apt the empirical tests of the apt thus far have produced inconclusive results and a good deal of controversy it now seems appropriate to

analysis and decomposition of energy consumption in the chilean industry abstract with rising energy costs and climate change concerns energy efficiency will be important in maintaining competitiveness and reducing the environmental impact of industrial activities in this paper we study the chilean industrial sector which is the largest consumer of energy within the country energy demand and co 2 emissions in chile have grown rapidly in recent years while energy supply is mostly imported and subject to disruption therefore it is important to understand energy consumption in this sector and determine which sub sectors have the greatest potential to reduce energy consumption we used the index decomposition analysis ida applying the logarithmic mean divisia index method i lmdi i to quantify the impact of diverse driving factors on energy consumption furthermore a panel data analysis was used to determine whether there are differences in energy intensity across firms with different characteristics our results show that energy intensity has risen over time although energy consumption remains stable this fact supports the idea that energy efficiency policies could play an important role for the industrial sector additionally energy consumption and energy intensity follow different patterns in each sub sector therefore we conclude that the application of differentiated sectoral policies is preferable over a single global policy

changes in carbon intensity in china empirical findings from 1980 2003 china experienced sustainable rapid economic growth over the period 1980 2003 but at the same time energy related carbon intensity showed a downward trend it begs the question therefore what factors were driving this decline in carbon intensity and will this decline be maintained in future moreover what measures can be adopted to ensure a continual decline in carbon intensity these questions led to increased research in the factors governing co2 emission in china this paper quantifies the driving force behind china s primary energy related carbon intensity and measures the material production sectors final energy related carbon intensity our results show that the overwhelming contributor to the decline of energy related carbon intensity was the reduction in real energy intensity however policies that focus only on the decline in energy intensity are insufficient to further decrease carbon intensity the change of primary energy mix can improve the decline of carbon intensity this should focus on the material production sectors development strategies and final energy use greater emphasis should be given to secondary industry which needs national and regional governments policy support

temporal change of china s pollution terms of trade and its determinants abstract based on the world input output database wiod this study employed a revised pollution terms of trade ptt indicator to investigate the temporal change of china s environmental cost relative to its economic gains from international trade from 1995 to 2009 the results show that china has ptt larger than 1 indicating that china emits more emissions to obtain each unit of value added from exports than its trade partners over the period china s ptt first decreased from 1995 to 2001 and then increased from 2001 to 2009 the further decompositions show that improving technology is the leading driving force to decrease ptt while the change in global trade pattern is the leading force increasing ptt especially after 2001 we further decomposed the temporal change of china s ptt by income group of the trading partners the results show that the change in the global trade pattern is the crucial driving force behind the different changes of ptt by income group

fed intervention dollar appreciation and systematic risk abstract in a four factor asset pricing model estimated on daily data fed intervention significantly affects betas of surprises in the market return expected inflation rate yield curve and corporate bond risk premium fed foreign currency sales cause economically and statistically significant increases in the systematic risk premium in appreciation and thus in the dollar s expected appreciation rate the direction the fed desires and consistent with the signaling but not the portfolio balance channel intervention s effects on actual appreciation are less reliable they depend on unpredictable risk factor realizations even successful intervention to strengthen the dollar may be costly by increasing the dollar s systematic risk intervention reduces the attractiveness of u s relative to foreign investments further uncertainty about future fed interventions may induce resource misallocation ceteris paribus investors find it harder to estimate risk adjusted discount rates and forecast the home currency value of cash flows

copenhagen commitments and implications a comparative analysis of india and china abstract dynamic targets have been long advocated as a participatory tool for developing countries in climate change mitigation copenhagen commitments of india and china resume this trend after the unsuccessful attempt of argentina a decade ago however linear intensity targets are prone to hot air problems or non compliance risks intensity targets of india and china are analyzed using their elasticity parameters the relationship of these parameters to the structural nature of emissions and gdp profiles has been demonstrated and a method of comparing the probability indices of target achievement has been formulated in this paper showing a lower probability for china compared to india similarly a method of defining stringency factor for linear targets has been suggested and stringency factors evaluated for india 40 and china 90 which shows the relative stability of india s targets this paper evaluates an energy gdp emissions index eye index to indicate the extent of coupling decoupling of economic growth from emissions the three indices developed in this paper namely elasticity parameter stringency factor and eye index can be effectively used to analyze the economy emissions relationships for policy making and target setting

kaya identity for analysis of the main drivers of ghg emissions and feasibility to implement eu 20 20 20 targets in the baltic states abstract the kaya identity relates the greenhouse gas ghg emissions to energy use economic growth and population growth therefore it can be applied to decompose ghg emissions with respect to the latter terms european union eu has established the main targets of sustainable energy development in energy and climate package 20 20 20 eu member states conformed to achieve in 2020 ghg emission reduction by 20 comparing with year 1990 level to achieve 20 of renewable energy sources res in final energy consumption and to reduce energy intensity by 20 compared to year 2005 level as all of these targets are interrelated and have to be achieved together it is very important to track the changes of ghg emissions in eu member states alongside the changes in energy intensity and increase in the share of renewables in final energy consumption the kaya identity and decomposition analysis allow the linking of changes in ghg emissions to changes in energy intensity and carbon intensity of energy which directly reflects the increase of the share of renewables in final energy consumption the impact of gdp growth on ghg emissions is also assessed by kaya identity the paper applies a novel approach in tracking progress achieved in implementing 20 20 20 targets by employing kaya identity and shapley value for decomposition analysis the conducted analysis showed that policies to increase energy efficiency are the most important drivers of ghg emission reduction and achieving eu 20 20 20 targets in baltic states though the share of res has increased significantly in baltic states its impact on ghg emissions reduction per capita in baltic states was insignificant therefore more emphasis on energy efficiency policies is necessary as they are the most effective measures for achieving ghg emission reduction targets

determinants of changes in electricity generation intensity among different power sectors abstract this study analyzes the determinants of changes in electricity generation intensity in china and further uncovers the reasons for the differences between the changes in electricity generation intensity in the thermal and sustainable power sectors by developing a factorial intertemporal nested decomposition technique using the refined laspeyres index we demonstrate the contributions of electricity generation structure electricity generation to consumption ratio production electricity consumption intensity residential electricity consumption intensity and electricity consumption loss intensity effects although the electricity generation intensity of the thermal power sector has been lower than that of the sustainable power sector the latter has declined remarkably and has remained the key sector driving the overall changes in electricity generation intensity meanwhile the effect of electricity consumption intensity is the main factor that reduces electricity generation intensity moreover the impact of production electricity consumption intensity in the thermal power sector exceeds its impact in the sustainable power sector ultimately we find that the differences between the changes in electricity generation intensity in the thermal and sustainable power sectors are mainly due to their differences in production electricity consumption intensity

multiplicative structural decomposition analysis of aggregate embodied energy and emission intensities abstract aggregate intensity indicators such as the ratio of a country s energy and emissions to its gdp are often used by researchers and policymakers to study energy and environmental performance this paper analyzes the relationship between energy or emissions and value added or gdp from a different viewpoint namely from the demand rather than the production perspective using the input output i o framework the aggregate embodied intensity aei defined as the ratio of embodied energy or emissions to embodied value added can be defined at the aggregate final demand category and sectoral levels the total aggregate intensity can be presented as a weighted sum of the aeis at the final demand category or sectoral level changes of the aei at different levels can be decomposed to identify the driving forces using multiplicative sda a study using the latest 2007 and 2012 datasets of china indicates that a its aggregate intensity of co 2 emissions was mainly determined by the aei in investment and b the emission intensity effect generally contributed the most to the aei ratio changes at different levels the proposed framework can be applied to other aggregate intensity indicators and extended to multi country region analysis

the january size effect anomaly or risk mismeasurement 1986 the january size effect anomaly or risk mismeasurement financial analysts journal vol 42 no 6 pp 63 70

decomposition analysis for assessing the progress in decoupling industrial growth from co2 emissions in the eu manufacturing sector decomposition analysis is used in this paper not only to explain changes in industrial co2 emissions but also to comparatively evaluate the progress made in 14 eu countries in decoupling emissions from industrial growth the analysis is performed for the period 1990 2003 by distinguishing two time intervals for assessing progress prior to and following the agreement on the kyoto protocol the refined laspeyres model is used to determine the impact of 5 explanatory factors output energy intensity structure fuel mix and utility mix the obtained results are further elaborated in order to assess the real efforts undertaken in each country and their effectiveness in dissociating the economic and environmental dimensions of development moreover a rescaling procedure is implemented in order to adjust efforts to the average progress in the eu and proceed to a fair comparative evaluation it is found that most eu countries made a considerable but not always sufficient decoupling effort while no significant acceleration is observed in the post kyoto period

dynamics and drivers of per capita co2 emissions in asia abstract the aim of this paper is to document recent trends in asia s co2 emissions and explore the mechanisms that drive those emissions for fourteen countries over the period 1971 to 2017 we apply a sequential method which has a strong relationship to policy indicators first an analysis of the dynamics is undertaken to identify if convergence is occurring followed by a study of the determinants of those dynamics this approach overcomes some of the limitations of previous work analyzing emission convergence by focusing on country specific characteristics such as energy mix and energy efficiency the analysis reveals per capita co2 emissions energy intensity carbonization and per capita incomes are slowly converging over the full sample yet this behavior is not uniform there were differences in transition paths prior to and after the asian financial crisis the per capita income driver was the most important driver in explaining the dynamics and variation of emissions while carbonization and energy intensity drivers were less pronounced the analysis reveals that the energy needs of the region s extraordinary economic growth favored fossil fuels and a surprising revelation is that despite having different per capita income levels china korea and vietnam all share a common convergence path this paper provides further evidence against using carbon intensity solely as a target for climate policy

energy related ghg emission in agriculture of the european countries an application of the generalized divisia index abstract sustainable agriculture food security and welfare of the farmers require an integrated analysis of the performance of the agricultural sector in this paper we follow the energy environment economy framework and focus on decomposition of changes in the energy related greenhouse gas ghg emission in agricultural sectors of the selected european union eu countries the research relies on country level data from fao and eurostat describing economic activity energy use and ghg emission in the agricultural sectors of the european countries during 1995 2012 the main drivers carbon factor of energy consumed in agriculture energy intensity of agricultural production and growth in agricultural production and their impacts on the energy related ghg emissions in agriculture are analysed for selected countries the generalized divisia index is applied to decompose the changes in the energy related ghg emissions france latvia and belgium appeared as the only countries with increase in ghg emissions during 1995 2012 in the case of france energy intensity went up along with increase in the scale of agricultural production in latvia and belgium an increase in carbon factor appeared as the major factor driving an increase in ghg emissions the appropriate policies need to be employed in these countries seeking to reduce ghg emissions from energy consumption in agriculture improvements in energy efficiency appear to be a more feasible mean for ensuring further reductions in ghg emission

the effect of barge and ocean freight price volatility in international grain markets this paper looks at the potential role of time varying volatility of mississippi river barge and ocean freight prices on commodity prices in illinois at the us gulf and in rotterdam using a vector error correction garch in mean model the model is used to infer the extent to which transportation price risk affects price dynamics in international grain markets results from a simulation exercise indicate that both barge and ocean price volatility influence grain prices but barge price volatility tends to have a greater impact on grain prices and marketing margins than that arising from ocean price volatility consistent with most studies that evaluate the role of risk in marketing channels results here suggest that a reduction in barge rate risk would reduce marketing margins between illinois and the us gulf and between the us gulf and rotterdam the existence of an ocean freight futures contract coupled with the lack of a futures contract for barge rates may be partially responsible for the finding that barge rates have a significant influence on grain prices and contribute most to wide marketing margins found throughout the international grain marketing system

the abatement of carbon dioxide intensity in china factors decomposition and policy implications to deal with the challenges brought about by climate changes china decided to reduce the carbon dioxide co2 intensity by 40 45 per cent from 2005 to 2020 using the decomposition technique this study finds that energy intensity is the most important force to drive the decline of co2 intensity between 1980 and 2008 followed by structural factors such as the adjustment of energy and industrial structure therefore any environmental policy to promote energy efficiency will play the biggest role in achieving the target of abating co2 intensity in 2020

decomposition of aggregate carbon intensity for freight trends from 10 oecd countries for the period 1971 1993 abstract historical patterns of aggregate carbon intensity from freight are different than those from other sectors while aggregate carbon intensity declined for all other sectors aggregate carbon intensity for freight increased the adaptive weighted divisia rolling base year index specification is applied to carbon emissions from the freight sector of 10 oecd countries for the period 1970 1993 increases in aggregate carbon intensity for nine of the countries range from less than 20 to over 150 and may be primarily attributed to shifts in modal structure toward more carbon intensive modes these increases in aggregate carbon intensity are driven primarily by an increase in activity which parallels the growth in gdp furthermore changes in fuel price and vehicle purchase taxes do not appear to be effective instruments for reducing energy consumption for this end use alternative policy options including less carbon intensive fuels and technologies and reduced congestion appear to be better choices