research on the motion picture industry state of the art and new directions off the beaten track away from theatrical release the motion picture industry has been subject of extensive academic research over the last decades however most scholars focused on the u s theatrical motion picture market the number of research activities regarding even more profitable release windows such as home video or television has been substantially lower although international distribution is essential for a motion picture project to break even there has been little significant re search on most other markets this paper aims at summarizing the current state of research on the motion picture industry particularly from marketing and management perspective revealing research gaps and proposing recommendations for future research endeavors therefore a three pillar scheme is developed to systemize previous findings research on intraorganizational decision making contractual relationships between national stakeholders and international market competition are differentiated since these insights are mainly derived from u s theatrical exhibition they can hardly be applied to other markets and exhibition windows thus potential research areas are identified to expand knowledge of posttheatrical and international markets

when are concerted reforms feasible explaining the emergence of social pacts in western europe under what conditions do governments employers and unions enter formal policy agreements on incomes employment and social security such agreements widely known as social pacts became particularly prominent during the 1990s when european economies underwent major adjustment this article seeks to explain national variation in adjustment strategies and specifically why concerted agreements were struck in some countries but not in others a fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis of 14 european countries is employed to assess main arguments about the emergence of pacts the analysis yields two key findings first although prevailing arguments emphasize economic and monetary unionrelated pressures or alternatively unemployment these factors were neither necessary nor in themselves sufficient for pacts to materialize rather a high economic problem load appears to be causally relevant only when combined with particular political and institutional conditions namely the prevalence of electorally weak governments and or an intermediate level of union centralization second the analysis refines existing multicausal explanations of pacts by demonstrating three distinct theoretically and empirically relevant causal pathways to concerted agreements

social networks and the dynamics of labour market outcomes evidence from refugees resettled in the u s recent theoretical work suggests that social networks may play an important role in the dynamics of employment and wages across groups of individuals this paper provides empirical evidence of job information flows within social networks and the non linear relationship between social network size and labor market outcomes an extended version of the model developed by calvo armengol and jackson 2004 shows that competition can exist between network members for job referrals and investigates the dynamics between the size of a social network the tenure of network members and labor market outcomes the predictions of the model are tested empirically using a unique data set of refugees resettled in the u s from 2001 2005 the empirical strategy exploits the special institutional environment of refugee resettlement i find that a one standard deviation increase in the number of network members who have arrived in the u s one year ago lowers the probability of employment by 4 9 and the average hourly wage by 70 conversely as predicted by the model more tenured network members improve labor market outcomes for recently arrived refugees

party politics and the reemergence of social pacts in western europe conventional accounts of the reemergence of social pacts in western europe argue they are a governmental response to economic pressures in particular the requirements for joining the european monetary union emu the authors analyze three case studies the netherlands ireland and austria to illustrate the usefulness of an alternative explanation centering on electoral calculations by political parties in choosing pacts parties forge social pacts not only to deal with economic problems but also when they perceive them to be helpful in reducing the potential electoral costs of economic adjustment and wage policies alternatively parties may forgo negotiations with social partners for electoral gain the authors extend the analysis to seven additional countries to apply the analysis more broadly by combining the separate literatures on political economy and party politics they are able to shed new light on the dynamics of social pacts in western europe

who gets the job referral evidence from a social networks experiment we use recruitment into a laboratory experiment in kolkata india to analyze how job networks select individuals for employment opportunities we present evidence that individuals face a tradeoff between choosing the most qualified individual for the job and the individual who is ideal from the perspective of their social network the experiment allows randomly selected subjects to refer members of their social networks to subsequent rounds of the experiment and varies the incentive schemes offered to these participants we find that when faced with performance pay individuals are more likely to refer co workers and less likely to refer family members high ability participants who are offered performance pay recruit referrals who perform significantly better on a cognitive ability task and also prove to be more reliable as evidenced by their choices in the trust game and performance on an effort task

managerial objectives the r rating puzzle and the production of violent films we analyze project choice in the motion picture industry and find evidence consistent with revenue maximization and excessive hedging we find that movies that are very violent or feature sex and violence do not provide excess returns but they increase revenues particularly in the international market further they tend to lose money less often and their returns are more predictable even though there are never mega hits this evidence is consistent with studies of other industries and it partially explains the r rating puzzle that is the preponderance of r rated films although most studies find that g and pg rated films perform better

sixty years after the magic carpet ride the long run effect of the early childhood environment on social and economic outcomes this paper estimates the effect of the early childhood environment on a large array of social and economic outcomes lasting almost 60 years to do this we exploit variation in the living conditions experienced by yemenite children after being airlifted to israel in 1949 we find that children who were placed in a more modern environment i e with better sanitary and infrastructure conditions were more likely to obtain higher education marry at an older age have fewer children and work at age 55 they were also more likely to be assimilated into israeli society to be less religious and have more worldly tastes in music and food however these effects are found mainly for women and not for men we also find an effect on the next generation children who lived in a better environment grew up to have children with more education

bose einstein dynamics and adaptive contracting in the motion picture industry audiences discover what films they like and spread the word information feedback produces bose einstein dynamics in the motion picture box office revenue distribution information cascades generate box office hits and flops the revenue distribution evolves recursively over the run as a mixture of the opening and a stochastic competition among films the motion picture run is decentralized adaptive and self organizing semistationary admission prices local information and contingency rich contracts match the film rental price and the supply of theatrical engagements to demand copyright 1996 by royal economic society

motion picture profit the stable paretian hypothesis and the curse of the superstar abstract this paper investigates the stable distribution as a model of profit in motion pictures the skew of this distribution and its paretian tails capture with great fidelity the statistics of the movies features of the business such as the nobody knows principle the curse of the superstar the angel s nightmare the instability of profit and the form of artist contracts follow from the properties of the stable distribution

density social networks and job search methods theory and application to egypt we first develop a theoretical model in which individuals are embedded within a network of social relationships we show that conditional on being employed the probability to find a job through social networks relative to other search methods increases and is concave with the size of the network the effects are stronger for the uneducated there is however a critical size of the network above which this probability decreases we then test empirically these theoretical findings for egypt using the 1998 labor market survey the empirical evidence supports the predictions of our theoretical model

an econometric analysis of reservation wages this paper describes an analysis of survey data on unemployed people who reported their asking wage and the wage they expected to earn we show that if agents behavior is described by the standard optimal job search model one can use these data to deduce structural parameters rather than estimate them and we report our deductions from two surveys 1 of british unemployed people

organizational determinants of wage moderation this article contributes to the political economic literature regarding the effects of industrial relations institutions on national economic outcomes based on an econometric analysis of the determinants of wage moderation in sixteen industrialized countries between 1974 and 2000 it argues that the organizational characteristics of trade unions have a significant impact on wage dynamics controlling for a number of institutional and economic factors the countries in which trade union confederations directly involve workers in the process of collective bargaining ratification have on average lower wage growth relative to productivity than others the authors also find that collective bargaining coordination and contract ratification magnify each other s wage dampening effect through case studies of ireland and italy the article examines the causal mechanisms underlying the uncovered statistical regularities and concludes that particularly at a time in which classic political exchange is waning worker involvement in contract ratification allows confederation leaders to resolve conflicting claims inside their organizations at lower wage levels than are achieved by a less participatory governance process

social contacts and occupational choice social contacts help workers to find jobs but those jobs need not be in the occupations where workers are most productive hence social contacts can generate mismatch between a worker s occupational choice and his comparative productive advantage thus economies with dense social networks can exhibit apparently low labor force quality and as a result low returns to firms investment and depressed aggregate productivity we employ us and european data for the 1990 s to test the key prediction that social contacts distort workers occupational choices in a direction that reduces their apparent productivity we find that the use of social contacts helps find jobs one to two months sooner but leads to individual wage discounts of 5 to 7 and produces negative externalities on aggregate productivity

crime and social interactions the high variance of crime rates across time and space is one of the oldest puzzles in the social sciences this variance appears too high to be explained by changes in the exogenous costs and benefits of crime we present a model where social interactions create enough covariance across individuals to explain the high cross city variance of crime rates this model provides an index of social interactions which suggests that the amount of social interactions is highest in petty crimes moderate in more serious crimes and almost negligible in murder and rape

job information networks neighborhood effects and inequality this paper explores the theoretical and empirical literature to examine the use by different social groups of informal sources of information provided by friends relatives and acquaintances during job search and its consequences for the job market it also addresses the role of network structure and size the resource endowments of contacts and nature of the links between contacts to explain differences in the effects of job information networks in doing so the paper also turns to the sociology literature on job information networks and provides an economic perspective on such sociological concepts as strong versus weak ties inbreeding distance from structural holes etc the paper distinguishes between models of exogenous job information networks that is where individuals obtain job related information through a given social structure and endogenous job information networks which are social networks that result from individuals uncoordinated actions the paper pays special attention to such issues as physical and social proximity and sharing of information and discusses them in the context of the recent social interactions and neighborhood effects literature finally the paper outlines a model that integrates job information networks where interactions occur in business cycle frequencies with the dynamics of human capital formation which include the joint effects of parental community and neighborhood human capital and are set in life cycle frequencies for the purpose of organizing suggestions for future research and examining earned income inequality

the macroeconomics of social pacts in this paper we analyze macroeconomic interactions between trade unions the central bank and the fiscal policymaker we explicitly model unions concern for public expenditure paving the way for an analysis of the potential gains from cooperation between the fiscal policymaker and the unions i e the so called corporatist or social pacts that have characterized economic policies in a number of european countries in the last few decades we also highlight the profoundly different incentives generated by institutional arrangements such as the maastricht criteria and the stability and growth pact the former has unambiguously induced more efficient outcomes the latter is likely to backfire

does hollywood make too many r rated movies risk stochastic dominance and the illusion of expectation we estimate the probability distributions of budgets revenues returns and profits to g pg pg13 and r rated movies the distributions are non gaussian and show a self similar stable paretian form with nonfinite variance and nonstationary mean the profit distributions have asymmetric tails which means that hollywood could trim its downside risk while increasing its upside possibilities by shifting production dollars out of r rated movies into g pg and pg13 rated movies stars who are willing to appear in edgy counterculture r rated movies for their prestige value may induce an illusion of expectation leading studios to green light movies that have biased expectations

evaluating a simple method for estimating black white gaps in median wages racial differences in wage rates are important measures of economic inequality among races because for almost all individuals labor income constitutes the most important component of lifetime income as a consequence the prices at which individuals may sell their time provide vital infornation about the distribution of welfare and economic success however we only observe prices when market transactions occur and thus we only observe wage rates for individuals who are employed since the wages of employed workers are not randomly sampled from the distribution of potential wages it is difficult to draw inferences concerning racial gaps in potential wages from data on observed wage rates richard butler and james heckman 1977 raised this issue in the context of assessing the impact of government policies on racial income inequality charles brown 1984 james smith and finis welch 1989 and amitabh chandra 2000 also examine the extent of racial differences in participation rates and the impact of these differences on measures of racial wage and income gaps this topic remains salient in part because employment rates among working age black males remain significantly below corresponding rates for whites neal and johnson 1996 estimated racial gaps in median wages among men by imputing wages of zero for all men in a particular crosssection who report that they have not worked at all during the survey period under a specific assumption concerning the distribution of missing wages this procedure yields consistent estimates of the black white gap in median wages conditional on observed characteristics below we spell out this assumption and use panel data to investigate the extent to which it may be violated in cross section wage analyses our results suggest that imputing wages of zero for unemployed individuals may provide a reasonable way to estimate median wage regressions among men

navigating institutional change the accord rogernomics and the politics of adjustment in australia and new zealand this article uses a transactions approach to examine the ability of governments to develop and sustain negotiated solutions to major economic challenges where actors are embedded in long term repeated interaction have long time horizons and invest in monitoring and enforcement technologies effective political exchange is more likely in good transactions environments policy bargains will be more easily renegotiated and therefore more flexible and durable to examine the expectations the author looks to the puzzle posed by events in australia and new zealand 1983 1996 facing similar macroeconomic crises and with historically similar wage bargaining institutions and levels of union density both elect labor governments which then make opposite choices a negotiated solution emerged in australia but not in new zealand relying on the secondary literature and interviews with key actors the author finds support for the transactions approach findings here point to ways in which to broaden the study of

optimal bundling strategies under heavy tailed valuations we develop a framework for the optimal bundling problem of a multiproduct monopolist who provides goods to consumers with private valuations that are random draws from a distribution with heavy tails we show that in the vickrey auction setting the buyers prefer separate provision of the goods to any bundles we also provide a complete characterization of the optimal bundling strategies for a monopolist producer who provides goods for profit maximizing prices for products with low marginal costs the seller s optimal strategy is to provide goods separately when consumers valuations are heavy tailed and in a single bundle when valuations are thin tailed these conclusions are reversed for goods with high marginal costs for simplicity we use a specific class of independent and identically distributed random variables but our results can be generalized to include dependence skewness and the case of nonidentical one dimensional distributions

the effect of low skilled immigration on u s prices evidence from cpi data i exploit the large variation across u s cities and through time in the relative size of the low skilled immigrant population to estimate the causal effect of immigration on prices of nontraded goods and services using an instrumental variables strategy i find that at current immigration levels a 10 percent increase in the share of low skilled immigrants in the labor force decreases the price of immigrant intensive services such as housekeeping and gardening by 2 percent wage equations suggest that lower wages are a likely channel through which these effects take place however wage effects are significantly larger for low skilled immigrants than for low skilled natives implying that the two are imperfect substitutes

union density and political strikes why do trade unions organize antigovernment strikes in some countries but not in others this article argues that there is a curvilinear relationship between union density and political strike activity political strikes are rare in countries with low union density since effective protests require a basic level of organizational capacity they are also rare in countries with high union density since a government that faces a strong union movement has powerful incentives to adjust its policies in order to avoid open confrontation but political strikes are relatively common in countries with moderate levels of union density since it is difficult for governments and unions to find viable compromises when the strength of the unions is not secure the empirical part of the article estimates the relationship between union density and the likelihood of political strikes in two samples of advanced democracies

network effects and welfare cultures we empirically examine the role of social networks in welfare participation using data on language spoken at home to better infer networks within an area our empirical strategy asks whether being surrounded by others who speak the same language increases welfare use more for those from high welfare using language groups this methodology allows us to include local area and language group fixed effects and to control for the direct effect of being surrounded by one s language group these controls eliminate many of the problems in previous studies the results strongly confirm the importance of networks in welfare participation

endogenous job contact networks we use the uk quarterly labour force survey to document the presence of two phenomena first a positive correlation between unemployment rate and the proportion of job seekers who use social networks to nd jobs network use second a non monotone relation between unemployment rate and the proportion of recently employed workers who found their job through friends or relatives network productivity this second relation is positive for low levels of unemployment rate while it becomes negative for high levels of unemployment rate existing models of social networks and labor market generally assume that social networks are exogenous this assumption implies a negative correlation between unemployment rate and network productivity we develop a model where social networks are used to collect job oers but workers decide strategically how much to invest in their network we show that equilibrium job contact networks are dense and more productive in transmitting information when labor market turnover is moderate while they are less productive and segmented into clusters for either high or low turnover the equilibrium response of job contact networks to changes in labor market conditions is sucient to generate

the political economy of social democratic economic policies the pasok experiment in greece this article looks at the political economy of social democratic economic policies it focuses on those policies that seek to extend democracy to the social and economic spheres and examines why such experiments have met with limited success in the past it compares external constraints on the viability of such policies such as the freedom of capital movements and globalization with internal constraints since social democratic policies rely on promoting coordination and cooperation between economic agents and groups it is argued that an important but often neglected internal constraint is the extent to which social democracy can draw upon or if they are lacking foster those institutions within society which promote coordination and cooperation the paper examines in detail the social democratic experience of pasok in greece and draws some conclusions for the wider relevance of the future viability of social democratic economic policies copyright 1998 by oxford university press

job contact networks abstract many workers hear about or obtain their jobs through friends and relatives the aim of this paper is twofold first we relate both individual and aggregate labor market outcomes to the network structure of personal contacts second we study strategic network formation to this purpose we develop a model specifying at the individual level both the decision to form contacts with other agents and the process by which information about jobs is obtained and transmitted we show that equilibrium networks always exist and that only moderate levels of network asymmetry can be sustained at equilibrium also we establish a general non monotonicity result on information flow and unemployment with respect to network size in symmetric networks

ethnic enclaves and the economic success of immigrants evidence from a natural experiment recent immigrants tend to locate in ethnic enclaves within metropolitan areas the economic consequence of living in such enclaves is still an unresolved issue we use an immigrant policy initiative in sweden when government authorities distributed refugee immigrants across locales in a way that may be considered exogenous this policy initiative provides a unique natural experiment which allows us to estimate the causal effect on labor market outcomes of living in enclaves we find substantive evidence of sorting across locations when sorting is taken into account living in enclaves improves labor market outcomes for instance the earnings gain associated with a standard deviation increase in ethnic concentration is in the order of four to five percent

risky innovation the impact of internal and external r d strategies upon the distribution of returns a b s t r a c t external innovation increases the profits of the median firm but also increases dispersion and the kur tosis of the distribution of profits this means that external strategies are risky and may require a very large number of attempts before average returns are obtained this puts smaller firms into a position of disproportionately high risk despite the earlier evidence that the rewards from innovation are positively skewed we find no effect of innovation strategies upon the skewness of the distribution of firms profits

ethnic capital and intergenerational mobility this paper analyzes the extent to which ethnic skill differentials are transmitted across generations i assume that ethnicity acts as an externality in the human capital accumulation process the skills of the next generation depend on parental inputs and on the quality of the ethnic environment in which parents make their investments or ethnic capital the empirical evidence reveals that the skills of today s generation depend not only on the skills of their parents but also on the average skills of the ethnic group in the parent s generation

are refugees different from economic immigrants some empirical evidence on the heterogeneity of immigrant groups in the united states this paper analyzes how the implicit difference in time horizons between refugees and economic immigrants affects subsequent human capital investments and wage assimilation the analysis uses the 1980 and 1990 integrated public use samples of the census to study labor market outcomes of immigrants who arrived in the united states from 1975 to 1980 i find that in 1980 refugee immigrants in this cohort earned 6 less and worked 14 fewer hours than economic immigrants both had approximately the same level of english skills the two immigrant groups had made substantial gains by 1990 however refugees had made greater gains in fact the labor market outcomes of refugee immigrants surpassed those of economic immigrants in 1990 refugees from the 1975 1980 arrival cohort earned 20 more worked 4 more hours and improved their english skills by 11 relative to economic immigrants the higher rates of human capital accumulation for refugee immigrants contribute to these findings

networks in labor markets wage and employment dynamics and inequality we present a model of labor markets that accounts for the social network through which agents hear about jobs we show that both wages and employment are positively associated a strong form of correlation across time and agents we also analyze the decisions of agents regarding staying in the labor market or dropping out if there are costs to staying in the labor market then networks of agents that start with a worse wage status will have higher drop out rates and there will be a persistent differences in wages between groups according to the starting states of their networks

immigrating to opportunity estimating the effect of school quality using a natural experiment on ethiopians in israel in may 1991 fifteen thousand ethiopian jews were brought to israel in an overnight airlift and sorted in a haphazard and essentially random fashion to absorption centers across the country this quasi random assignment produced a natural experiment whereby the initial schooling environment of ethiopian children can be considered exogenous to their family background and parental decisions we examine the extent to which the initial elementary school environment affected the high school outcomes of ethiopian children using administrative panel data on the educational career of each child in israel through much of the 1990s the results show that the early schooling environment has an important effect on high school dropout rates repetition rates and the passing rate on matriculation exams necessary to enter college the results are robust to using alternative measures of the schooling environment and to the inclusion of community fixed effects which suggests that aspects of the elementary school itself are important for high school success

identification of endogenous social effects the reflection problem this paper examines the reflection problem that arises when a researcher observing the distribution of behaviour in a population tries to infer whether the average behaviour in some group influences the behaviour of the individuals that comprise the group it is found that inference is not possible unless the researcher has prior information specifying the compisition of reference groups if this information is available the prospects for inference depend critically on the population relationship between the variables defining reference groups and those directly affecting outcomes inference is difficult to implossible if these variables are functionally dependent or are statistically independent the prospects are better if the variables defining reference groups and those directly affecting outcomes are moderately related in the population

pricing an option on revenue from an innovation an application to movie box office revenue we develop a model for valuing revenue streams from innovations the stochastic properties of revenue from innovations create a more difficult environment in which to value options than when the underlying is a security there is no initial revenue and cumulative revenue cannot decrease revenues from innovations are characterized by different lives and different rates of the resolution of uncertainty a common deterministic model for predicting revenue from an innovation is known as the bass model we embed the bass model in a gamma process resulting in a stochastic process with moments proportional to the mean of the bass model to illustrate this model we choose the valuation of options on movie box office revenue these options enable film distributors to manage the risk of a movie and they offer diversification opportunities for investors we develop the econometric methodology for ex ante parameter estimation and a bayesian updating scheme using markov chain monte carlo simulation as data after release become available call prices obtained using the maximum likelihood ml parameter estimates from the full data set closely approximate the average discounted value of ex post call payouts that would have occurred at option maturity

choosing to cofinance analysis of project specific alliances in the movie industry we use a movie industry project by project dataset to analyze the choice of financing a project internally versus financing it through outside alliances the results indicate that project risk is positively correlated with alliance formation movie studios produce a variety of films and tend to develop their safest projects internally our findings are consistent with internal capital market explanations we find mixed evidence regarding resource pooling i e sharing the cost of large projects finally the evidence shows that projects developed internally perform similarly to projects developed through outside alliances

the effects of social networks on employment and inequality we develop a model where agents obtain information about job opportunities through an explicitly modeled network of social contacts we show that employment is positively correlated across time and agents moreover unemployment exhibits duration dependence the probability of obtaining a job decreases in the length of time that an agent has been unemployed finally we examine inequality between two groups if staying in the labor market is costly and one group starts with a worse employment status then that group s drop out rate will be higher and their employment prospects will be persistently below that of the other group

impacts of social networks on floating population wages under different marketization levels empirical analysis of china s 2016 national floating population dynamic monitoring data this paper establishes a measurement model to examine the impacts of social network heterogeneity on the wages of the floating population and the different impacts under different levels of market

networks in the modern economy mexican migrants in the u s labor market this paper attempts to identify job networks among mexican migrants in the u s labor market the empirical analysis uses data on migration patterns and labor market outcomes based on a sample of individuals belonging to multiple origin communities in mexico over a long period of time each community s network is measured by the proportion of the sampled individuals who are located at the destination the united states in any year we verify that the same individual is more likely to be employed and to hold a higher paying nonagricultural job when his network is exogenously larger by including individual fixed effects in the employment and occupation regressions and by using rainfall in the origin community as an instrument for the size of the network at the destination

the labor market integration of refugees in the united states do entrepreneurs in the network help we investigate whether entrepreneurs in the network of refugees from the same country of origin help refugees enter the labor market by hiring them we analyze the universe of refugee cases without u s ties who were resettled in the united states between 2005 and 2010 we address threats to identification due to refugees sorting into specific labor markets and to strategic placement by resettlement agencies we find that the probability that refugees are employed 90 days after arrival is positively affected by the number of business owners in their network but negatively affected by the number of those who are employees this suggests that network members who are entrepreneurs hire refugees while network members working as employees compete with them which is consistent with refugees complementing the former and substituting for the latter