does economic recession reduce material use empirical evidence based on 157 economies worldwide abstract the research on economic recession has been more focused on the interactions between macroeconomic and financial variables however whether material use has been affected during the recession period has remained under explored in order to fill up this gap this study investigates the relationship between material use and economic recession as well as other socio economic drivers by using the material flow analysis and the system generalized method of moments for 157 economies worldwide during 1980 2011 results show that economic recession poses significant and negative impact on domestic material consumption at 1 level illustrating its role as a determinant factor on material mitigation by dividing the research sample into extractive and non extractive economies as well as high mid and low income groups we again confirmed the significant negative correlations as expected no significant sign is found between recession and physical trade balance besides other drivers such as population gross domestic production gdp per capita and technological variables also exert marked effects at different situations this research work provides an empirical study on how recession and other factors affect material use at various scenarios which have essential implications for understanding material flow dynamics in different economic cycles

the proximity of nations to a socially sustainable steady state economy abstract there has been increasing interest in new economic models that aim to improve quality of life without increasing consumption this article provides the first empirical analysis of how close modern day economies are to the concept of a steady state economy and explores whether there is any relationship between a country s proximity to such an economy and its social performance the analysis is carried out using the degrowth accounts a set of 16 biophysical and social indicators that are derived from herman daly s definition of a steady state economy and the social goals of the degrowth movement these indicators are applied to 180 countries over a 10 year period the analysis reveals that the majority of countries in the world are biophysical growth economies there are only a small number of countries where resource use is relatively constant from year to year e g denmark france japan poland romania and the us and only four countries experiencing biophysical degrowth germany guyana moldova and zimbabwe there are no countries that achieve a true steady state economy defined as an economy with a stable level of resource use maintained within ecological limits however a few countries come relatively close including colombia cuba kyrgyzstan romania and south africa in general countries with stable resource use perform better on many social indicators than countries with either increasing or decreasing resource use this finding runs contrary to conventional economic thought however social performance is also higher in countries with greater per capita resource use overall these findings suggest that a steady state economy can be socially sustainable but countries need to become much more efficient at transforming natural resources into human well being if all seven billion people on earth are to lead a good life within ecological limits

co benefit of carbon mitigation on resource use in china abstract on one hand natural resources and energy provide the basis for life on earth but waste and emissions are produced during their throughput on the other hand china as the most populous country and an emerging economic powerhouse has taken on the challenge of hitting peak carbon dioxide co2 emissions by 2030 pursuing resource co benefits from carbon mitigation is an effective approach for china on the road to achieving the 2030 goal in this study we combine the computable general equilibrium cge model and the economy wide material flow accounts or analysis ew mfa method to estimate china s future co2 emissions and resource consumption and their co benefit effect three scenarios are analyzed business as usual bau nationally determined contributions ndc and the scenario of achieving the 2 degree target 2deg we find that both the ndc and 2deg targets can be achieved by 2030 without a significant compromise in economic growth with the effect of carbon mitigation china s resource consumption would rise by a factor of 1 7 bau 1 6 ndc and 1 5 2deg during 2012 2030 and the reduction in co benefits of metal ores nonmetallic minerals and fossil fuels would be 0 6 billion tons and 1 4 billion tons 0 8 billion tons and 2 0 billion tons and 2 6 billion tons and 4 6 billion tons for ndc and 2deg respectively sectoral disparity indicates that sectors with high emissions and resource consumption include traditional heavy industrial sectors and energy related sectors for which additional mitigation policies should be employed not only because they offer the most co benefit effects but they also have the least cost

international trade and energy intensity during european industrialization 1870 1935 the study was conducted in the research project who did the dirty work energy embodied in european and global trade 1800 1970 funded by the swedish research council 421 2013 1110 vetenskapsradet

drivers for the use of materials across countries abstract this paper analyses drivers for resource use and material productivity across countries this is not only relevant in light of soaring raw material prices but also because eu policies such as the thematic strategy on the sustainable use of natural resources com 2005 670 the eu raw materials initiative com 2008 699 and various similar policies internationally seek to better manage materials along their life cycle and across economies in order to better understand the system dynamics of material use our paper applies methodologies of material flow analysis and regression analysis to identify the major drivers for resource use and decoupling from gdp drivers are understood as those factors that exert influence on human activities to use resources a panel data set is taken for the european union for the years 1980 2000 eu 15 and 1992 2000 eu 25 the main drivers of resource use were found to be energy efficiency new dwellings and roads construction activities shortcomings of the methodology are also discussed

the symbiotic rebound effect in the circular economy abstract the circular economy has emerged as an important approach in addressing how society can use its resources more efficiently theoretical advancements in the circular economy have yielded benefits for both practice and policymaking however if the eco efficiency of resource use is to be improved then certain challenges that face the circular economy must be resolved one of these challenges concerns the rebound effect by investigating resource flow with a circular rather than linear system as well as within a producer producer rather than producer consumer type of relationship we identify a rebound effect that we term symbiotic rebound we differentiate it from other forms of rebound effect on the basis of its main driver opportunity costs drive a higher than expected use of resources in a circular economy rather than the usual driver of demand as found in other types of rebound in identifying describing and illustrating a symbiotic rebound effect we make two contributions first to the rebound literature and second to theory development on the circular economy

metabolic inequality and its impact on efficient contraction and convergence of international material resource use international inequality in material use decreased between 1970 and 2000 inequality stabilized 2000 to 2010 when global growth in material use accelerated material intensity has gained importance in shaping material use inequality inequality in material intensity has increased and shapes global material use

the commodification of nature and socio environmental resistance in ecuador an inventory of accumulation by dispossession cases 1980 2013 abstract this article aims to advance understanding of the relationship between social metabolism the commodification of nature local regime changes and patterns of resistance to accumulation by environmental dispossession during the most recent phase of global capitalism ecuador is a resource rich periphery country that has moved after 2007 from a neoliberal to a post neoliberal policy regime by analyzing 64 socio environmental resistance cases in the period 1980 2013 we focus on the continuities and changes in the relationship between environmental dispossession and resistance under the two regimes we find that while resistance to agri food projects has diminished having enjoyed some success under during the post neoliberal regime resistance to infrastructure and mineral extraction projects has remained steady with the impacts from environmental dispossession remaining much like those observed before 2007 at the same time major social investments financed through natural resource extraction and export combined with the introduction of constraints on the media and public assembly have created a political climate in which the resistance observed during the neo liberal period is now a socially deviant behavior

green goals and full employment are they compatible abstract two empirical correlations are studied one between economic growth and environmental impacts and the other between the lack of economic growth and unemployment it is demonstrated that at a global level economic growth is strongly correlated with environmental impacts and barriers to fast decoupling are large and numerous on the other hand low or negative growth is highly correlated with increasing unemployment in most market economies and strategies to change this lead to difficult questions and tradeoffs the coexistence of these two correlations which have rarely been studied together in the literature on green growth degrowth and a growth justifies ambivalence about growth to make key environmental goals compatible with full employment the decoupling of environmental impacts from economic output has to be accompanied by a reduction of dependence on growth in particular strategies to tackle unemployment without the need for growth several of which are studied in this article need much more attention in research and policy

employee reload options pricing hedging and optimal exercise reload options call options granting new options on exercise are popularly used in compensation although the compound option feature may seem complicated there is a distribution free dominant policy of exercising reload options whenever they are in the money the optimal policy implies general formulas for numerical valuation simpler formulas for valuation and hedging follow from black scholes assumptions with or without continuous dividends time vesting affects the optimal policy but numerical results indicate that it is nearly optimal to exercise in the money whenever feasible the results suggest that reload options produce similar incentives as employee stock options and share grants the valuation of options in compensation schemes is important for several reasons valuations are needed for preparing accounting statements and tax returns and more generally for understanding what value has been promised to the employees and what residual value remains with the shareholders furthermore understanding the hedge ratios and the overall shape of the valuation function clarifies the employee s risk exposure and incentives this article studies the optimal exercise and valuation of a relatively new but increasingly commonplace type of employee stock option the reload option these options have attracted a fair amount of controversy we believe that in large part this controversy is due to a seemingly complex structure in the statement of financial accounting standards sfas 123 financial accounting standards board 1995 paragraph 186 concludes the board continues to believe that ideally the value of a reload option should be estimated on the grant date taking into account all of its features however at this time it is not feasible to do so on close examination however these options are in fact comparatively simple to analyze and understand moreover under black and scholes 1973 assumptions on the stock price we are able to provide explicit valuation and hedging formulas we hope our analysis helps to demystify reload options and permit a more focused debate

tracing the impacts of a northern open economy on the global environment the globalization of the world economy has increased resource flows around the planet raising pressures on the environment historically northern industrialized economies have been responsible for the majority of resource consumption while developing countries have suffered the associated social and environmental impacts this article analyzes the extra territorial responsibility of the basque economy europe to illustrate the responsibility of northern open economies towards the global environment to do this we i analyze the material and energy flows of the basque economy their source and impacts on other regions of the world ii study the impact of the economic and investment activities of basque companies abroad and iii examine together with other paradigmatic examples three case studies from latin america east africa and southeast asia that represent the liabilities of northern economies in the global south this approach allows us to connect production and consumption processes in affluent countries with associated socio ecological impacts in the extraction frontiers in order to better understand and potentially transform current economic patterns and their consequences in addition the study indicates how to bridge the gap between local and global scales creating a useful approach to raising social awareness and informing public policies in resource intensive societies

material use and material efficiency in latin america and the caribbean different world regions have followed very different trajectories for natural resources use over the recent decades latin america has pursued a development path based largely on exports of primary resources adopting this path has characteristic environmental and social impacts in this paper we provide the first broad based estimate of material use and material efficiency for the region beginning in 1970 and extending to the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008 the results show a region with rapidly growing primary materials consumption which is simultaneously becoming less efficient at converting those resources into national income using an ipat framework we found that population growth and rising per capita incomes made comparable contributions to growing material use while technological change as reflected in material intensity did not moderate consumption increasing materials intensity observed for the region as a whole is also observed for most individual countries this contrasts with some other world regions and implies that many countries in latin america and the caribbean will confront higher environmental pressures than expected when expanding their extractive industries to take advantage of new demand from other world regions while simultaneously supplying the requirements for their own domestic industrial transformations and urbanization

global patterns of metal extractivism 1950 2010 providing the bones for the industrial society s skeleton during the second half of the 20th century mining expanded globally and must be considered one of the dominant forms of human intervention into the environment metals are strategically important resources for industrialized and industrializing societies in 2010 the five brics countries brazil the russian federation india china and south africa consumed 54 of the metals mined globally the analysis of material flow data offers a biophysical perspective on mining as a resource frontier and allows for the identification of patterns in global metals extraction and trade since 1950 metal extraction has shifted from the early industrializing countries into the emerging economies in 2010 only 6 of metals mined stemmed from europe or north america while 76 were extracted in four countries australia china india and brazil in the countries hosting large scale mining operations socio ecological pressure ensues the so called extractivist development path is common high rates of metal deposit depletion mean that today s metal extractors and exporters may depend on imports of metal from anthropogenic deposits stocks in buildings infrastructure and durable products in the future the extractivist path and the shifting of metals from natural to anthropogenic deposits are both associated with potential for conflict

the metabolic transition of a planned economy material flows in the ussr and the russian federation 1900 to 2010 abstract the study of long term historical trends in material flows has gained some prominence in ecological economics since the first studies for austria and the united kingdom were published as part of a special section in 2002 this research expands the existing knowledgebase by presenting material flows for the russian federation and its predecessor states employing a standard accounting framework the study of material flows for the russian federation provides an interesting and unique case of a planned economy and its transition to a market based form of economic organization we show that in spite of considerable differences in the physical economy the ussr developed material use patterns similar to that of western industrialized economies lower levels of consumption were more than outweighed by inefficient production the transition towards a market economy drove rapid improvements in resource productivity but also growth in metabolic rates the results indicate that the transition to an industrial metabolic profile proceeds largely irrespective of economic and political conditions an improved understanding of the evolution of socio economic systems and the material flows that fuel them is increasingly relevant for designing new systems of production and consumption and facilitating a transition towards a more sustainable industrial metabolism

analysis on major drivers of cement consumption during the urbanization process in china abstract accompanying by the rapid urbanization process of china unprecedented amounts of cement have been poured into urban construction over the last decade since research is still scarce on the factors underlying the cement consumption the motivation of this paper is to provide insight into cement based socioeconomic metabolism and to improve understanding of the linkage between human activities and cement consumption to explore the key impact factors of cement consumption an extended stirpat model is exploited in this paper to examine the effect of population gross domestic product gdp per capita cement consumption intensity fixed investment and urbanization level with regional panel data of china from 2005 to 2013 the empirical results indicate that fixed investment and gdp per capita are the decisive driving factors of cement consumption the unbalanced investment between infrastructure and people s livelihood reflects bias urbanization policy in china inverted u shaped nexus between cement consumption and urbanization as well as gdp per capita are observed in the empirical results moreover regional heterogeneities are taken into account in the model estimation on the ground of the empirical findings several policy recommendations are provided for policy makers it is suggested that policy makers should take account of the regional discrepancy and implement a sustainable urbanization strategy to curtail cement consumption only when excessive fixed investment is curbed does the enthusiasm of cement consumption calm down

economic growth and the evolution of material cycles an analytical framework integrating material flow and stock indicators abstract understanding the relationship between material cycles and economic growth is essential for relieving environmental pressures associated with material extraction production and consumption we developed an integrated analytical framework of dematerialization analysis incorporating both material flow and stock indicators a four quadrant diagram is designed to classify different stages of dematerialization based on the elasticity of material flow stock to economic output or well being we then conducted a case study on the long term evolution of aluminum cycle in the u s and found that different material flow and stock indicators decoupled from gross domestic product gdp growth in a clear sequential pattern flows closer to the beginning of the aluminum cycle e g primary aluminum production decoupled from gdp earlier than flows closer to the final consumption stage e g consumption of final products in use stock of aluminum decoupled from gdp much more slowly than any flow indicator and had just reached the status of relative decoupling around 2000 this phenomenon is determined by the fact that different causes of dematerialization such as import substitution and secondary material recycling take effect at different stages of economic development comprehensive understanding of dematerialization depends on in depth analysis on material economy relationships from an integrated stock and flow perspective

long term changes in social metabolism and land use in czechoslovakia 1830 2000 an energy transition under changing political regimes abstract industrialisation goes along with sweeping changes in society s interrelations with its environment the transition from an agrarian to an industrial society leads to fundamentally new patterns in social metabolism a process which has been described as socio metabolic transition this paper investigates this transition for the case of the current czech and slovak republics and presents a dataset on the development of key variables related to social metabolism during the last 170 years the dataset includes time series data on the extraction of biomass and fossil fuels energy consumption and land use combining data on bohemia and moravia 1830 1915 with data on czechoslovakia 1918 1992 and the czech and slovak republics 1993 2002 the study covers a period of consecutive political and institutional changes it includes the feudal regime of the late period of the habsburg empire and its disintegration with wwi the short period of the czechoslovak republic in the interwar period the era of a planned economy under a communist regime the collapse of this regime and the subsequent turn towards a market economy and european integration in the 1990s the period was characterized by economic and physical growth it saw a doubling of population and a growth in gdp by a factor 20 domestic energy consumption dec increased by a factor 10 and the share of biomass in dec declined from more than 98 to less than 20 all in all the observed changes closely resemble the characteristic path of the socio metabolic transition as observed in other western european economies major political and economic changes did not result in fundamental alterations of the socio metabolic transition until the mid 20th century the communist era 1945 1989 was characterized by rapid physical growth and changes in the energy and land use system very similar to those of other western european economies in the same period however leading to dec values substantially higher than those of other european countries at around 300 gj cap in the mid 1980s the disturbances caused by the velvet revolution resulted in short term turbulences in social metabolism and structural adaptations and around the year 2000 the czech and slovak republics show biophysical features very similar to those of other western european countries

elections coalitions and legislative outcomes predictions of electoral behavior in a multiparty setting should be a function of the voters beliefs about how parties will perform following an election similarly party behavior in a legislature should be a function of electoral promises and rewards we develop a multistage game theoretic model of three party competition under proportional representation the final policy outcome of the game is generated by a noncooperative bargaining game between the parties in the elected legislature this game is essentially defined by the vote shares each party receives in the general election and the parties electoral policy positions at the electoral stage parties and voters are strategic in that they take account of the legislative implications of any electoral outcome we solve for equilibrium electoral positions by the parties and final policy outcomes

pathways to a resource efficient and low carbon europe abstract various environmental footprint concepts have already been developed and applied in sustainability research however these analyses tend to remain restricted to historical observation samples at least in comparison with related research activities in other environmental policy domains like e g climate policy it seems that applications of integrated assessment tools represent rather seldom exceptions within the resource policy domain our paper is therefore intended to strengthen the related evidence base we present recent projections from the dynamic multi region input output mrio simulation model ginfors global inter industry forecasting system which provide an outlook on global development trends until the year 2050 our detailed material footprint and climate policy assessment indicates that a global agreement on a policy mix will allow a clear turnaround towards climate protection and a sustainable use of natural resources without deteriorating economic performance if the eu decides unilaterally to lead the way then this turnaround could also be achieved for the eu while the eu would also benefit economically from this pioneering role a third pathway towards a resource efficient and low carbon europe quantifies the environmental and economic impacts of a strong transitional change induced by european citizens commitments to far reaching sufficiency objectives

a multiscale reassessment of the environmental kuznets curve for energy and co2 emissions abstract this paper investigates the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis for total primary energy supply and co2 from fuel combustion over the period 1971 2015 our analysis has two distinguishing features firstly it adopts a robustness approach by a using both parametric and semi parametric methods and b analysing different geographical scales secondly it strictly adheres to the ekc narrative by a not using control variables and b taking energy and co2 in absolute rather than in per capita terms which is consistent with the fact that nature cares about absolute pressures we show how evidence for ekc changes depending on the model specification the sample and the used variables hence this paper contributes to explaining why the literature on the ekc gives mixed results the multiscale perspective and some theoretical considerations however tell how to perform the analysis appropriately thus we can affirm that both for co2 and energy the fragile evidence of ekc that was emerging at the end of the last century has vanished with the new wave of globalization there is only evidence of decreasing elasticities for very high income countries interestingly the great recession might have produced structural reductions in tpes and co2 in the affected countries finally the case of germany which shows ekc patterns indicates that active energy policies can reduce energy and co2 without harming the economy

government turnover in parliamentary democracies in this paper we consider a dynamic model of government formation and termination in parliamentary democracies that accounts for the following phenomena 1 cabinet terminations due to replacement or early election 2 cabinet reshuf es 3 minority and surplus governments 4 the relative instability of minority governments

not only subterranean forests wood consumption and economic development in britain 1850 1938 abstract this paper analyzes wood consumption in britain over the period 1850 1938 we calculate the apparent consumption of wood taking into account both net imports of wood and the home harvest we then develop some quantitative exercises that correlate wood consumption with gdp with prices of wood and iron as an alternative material to wood and with other measures the main conclusion is that although wood had lost its economic centrality after the energy transition wood consumption continued to grow in britain both in absolute and relative terms showing a positive elasticity to gdp superior to the unit this result allows us to reach a more complete understanding of the socio metabolic transition associated with the industrial revolution britain faced the increase in wood demand by relying almost entirely on imported wood reinforcing the idea that the decoupling of economic growth from land use must to be handled with care and should be observed not at the national level but on a global scale although british economic development was to a great extent focussed on what has been called the subterranean forests of coal it simultaneously supported large tracts of surface foreign forest

optimal bank capital with costly recapitalization we study optimal bank capital choice as a dynamic trade off between the opportunity cost of equity the loss of franchise value following a regulatory minimum capital violation and the cost of recapitalization we introduce a recapitalization delay that results in a strictly positive probability of capital adequacy violation we calibrate the model to bank accounting return data and evaluate the model s ability to explain observed bank capital ratios differences in return volatility explain a significant fraction of the cross sectional variation in bank capital ratios differences in the level of capital market imperfections across banks constitute a secondary explanation

key drivers for unsustainable resource use categories effects and policy pointers abstract prevailing resource use patterns of the global socio industrial metabolism are unsustainable an increasing number of people globally require ever more materials including energy carriers land and water for rising living standards and lifestyles converging towards western industrialised patterns therefore these resources will continue becoming both scarcer and depleted while environmental impacts associated with their consumption e g run away climate change will continue to rise for effective resource policies drivers for such unsustainable resource use and their effects need to be better understood and mapped by means of meta analysis of more than 60 sources of relevant literature we identified a set of ten driver categories that affect unsustainable resource use inter alia prevailing consumption and production patterns use and design of infrastructure and technology underlying paradigms and world views resource prices and the level of knowledge and information of resource users cumulative effects of the drivers contribute for instance up to 30 of phosphorus loss from soil and around 30 of building energy loss globally although the data does not allow clear cut causal attribution of effects it enables the distinction between direct and indirect drivers in relation to a multi dimensional network of drivers causing unsustainable resource use resource policy should combine policy objectives and instruments into policy mixes to target key drivers and their interrelations while policy mixes need to respond to context specific driver settings targeting consumer behaviour emerges as a general driver focus of policy mixes combining different instrument types and implementing them in a time dynamic sequence can mitigate trade offs between different instruments and in the longer term increase feasibility of profound behaviour changes

the socio economic drivers of material stock accumulation in japan s prefectures physical economy research has thus far focused on the throughput of materials that underpin economic development the role of stocks of buildings and infrastructure has remained underexplored yet it is the physical stock that provides service to society to fill this gap this research investigates stock dynamics in japan in relation to population and economic drivers using panel regression and ipat analyses for the past five decades we recognize characteristic changes in the strength and relative influence of the drivers throughout time in different subnational regions and on the dynamics of buildings compared to transportation infrastructure we find that material stock accumulation mainly occurred due to growth in economic activity specifically by tertiary sector demand apart from a period of government driven stock accumulation in the 1990s to stimulate economic growth as economic and population growth slowed stock accumulation dynamics also changed signaling a new stock saturation trend migration from rural to urban areas has recently become an influential driver leaving behind underused buildings and roads this analysis provides a case study on how socio economic drivers and stock accumulation interacted and changed while the country matured which may have implications for understanding stock dynamics in rapidly industrializing economies

the sustainable development index measuring the ecological efficiency of human development in the anthropocene abstract when the human development index hdi was introduced in the 1990s it was an important step toward a more sensible measure of progress one defined less by gdp growth and more by social goals but the limitations of hdi have become clear in the 21st century given a growing crisis of climate change and ecological breakdown hdi pays no attention to ecology and retains an emphasis on high levels of income that given strong correlations between income and ecological impact violates sustainability principles the countries that score highest on the hdi also contribute most in per capita terms to climate change and other forms of ecological breakdown in this sense hdi promotes a model of development that is empirically incompatible with ecological stability and impossible to universalize in this paper i propose an alternative index that corrects for these problems the sustainable development index sdi the sdi retains the base formula of the hdi but places a sufficiency threshold on per capita income and divides by two key indicators of ecological impact co2 emissions and material footprint both calculated in per capita consumption based terms and rendered vis a vis planetary boundaries the sdi is an indicator of strong sustainability that measures nations ecological efficiency in delivering human development

the physical economy of france 1830 2015 the history of a parasite abstract this article explores long term trends and patterns of material use in france for a 185 year period it is the first long term study of material flows for france with national and yearly data for most of the period based on a material flow analysis mfa that is fully consistent with current standards of economy wide mfas and covers domestic extraction imports and exports of materials we investigated the evolution of the french metabolism from industrialization to financialized capitalism over the whole period there is a 9 fold increase in domestic material consumption an expansion of material use per capita and a spectacular addition of abiotic resources fossil fuels and minerals to biotic materials using a world ecology framework we exhibit a specific metabolic path that of a state benefiting from successive world systems for its economic development through massive material imports

a degrowth transition pathways for the degrowth niche to replace the capitalist growth regime abstract facing the intertwined environmental social and economic crisis requires us to seriously consider alternatives to the current capitalist system including the emerging concept of degrowth existing understandings of degrowth have focused on characterizing the shape the key elements and the proposals for a degrowth society however its dynamic and evolving nature as an alternative vision of the future and the dynamics of a transition toward degrowth are inadequately considered this paper seeks to address this conceptual gap through a reconceptualisation of degrowth as a radical niche innovation to the capitalist growth regime by extending the multi level perspective framework to the capitalist growth system we undertake a critical reconsideration of the multi level perspective exposing key assumptions of this framework grounded in capitalist economic theory through this we propose a pluriversal potential pathway for change to consider this further a bibliometric analysis is used to measure and visualize research activity in degrowth as a proxy for the processes of development of the degrowth niche then we return to the multi level perspective to consider two potential pathways for change involving the degrowth niche and the capitalist growth regime finally we point to areas for further research that build on this new conceptualisation of a degrowth transition

recursos naturales diversificacion y crecimiento regional en el peru based upon the export product space this paper shows the main features of the export product composition of peru and its regions with respect to export baskets these include a high con centration in few commodities a relatively low degree of similarity between products relatively high levels of productivity at the international level and enormous undiscovered or untapped export potential in addition this paper analyzes the hypothesis that the natural resource curse affects regional growth employment and export diversification subject to the limitations of the data and the heterogeneous panel methods employed estimation results indicate that the share of natural capital out of the total tangible wealth and natural capital per capita seems on average and in a relatively statistically robust way to spur growth primary employment and export concentration in a few products consequently the natural resource curse for the peruvian regions is not about growth but about low regional development since such resources do not have a significant impact on secondary and tertiary employment or on export product diversification

towards more accurate and policy relevant footprint analyses tracing fine scale socio environmental impacts of production to consumption the consumption of internationally traded goods causes multiple socio environmental impacts current methods linking production impacts to final consumption typically trace the origin of products back to the country level lacking fine scale spatial resolution this hampers accurate calculation of trade and consumption footprints masking and distorting the causal links between consumers choices and their environmental impacts especially in countries with large spatial variability in socio environmental conditions and production impacts here we present the sei pcs model spatially explicit information on production to consumption systems which allows for fine scale sub national assessments of the origin of and socio environmental impacts embedded in traded commodities the method connects detailed production data at sub national scales e g municipalities or provinces information on domestic flows of goods and in international trade the model permits the downscaling of country to country trade analyses based on either physical allocation from bilateral trade matrices or mrio models the importance of producing more spatially explicit trade analyses is illustrated by identifying the municipalities of brazil from which different countries source the brazilian soy they consume applications for improving consumption accounting and policy assessment are discussed including quantification of externalities of consumption consumer labeling trade leakages sustainable resource supply and traceability

the world economy analysis and prospects the rate of growth for the us has now slipped into the 2 3 range the official figure for 1985 fourth quarter is 2 4 from 6 6 in 1984 growth in the volume of imports has also fallen sharply from almost 23 in 1984 to less than 2 in 1985 although this has been insufficient to prevent further increases in the current account deficit latest trade figures show a record visible trade deficit of 17 4 bn for december 1985

food regimes and their trade links a socio ecological perspective abstract the concept of food regimes has become a prominent theory in political economy we here provide socio ecological underpinning of the food regimes theory and thereby connect it closer to an ecological economics perspective we quantify physical trade with main agricultural commodities between world regions from the mid 19th century to 2016 and ask how trade patterns relate to issues of resource use in particular to land use soil fertility and the energetic basis of agriculture agricultural exports rose from a few million t yr around 1870 to 1 4 billion t yr in 2016 growth in trade and production did not follow a continuous trend periods of accelerated growth alternating with phases of relative stability can be distinguished rather than directed modernization we observe shifts in unequal relations of power physical exchange and environmental pressure between changing centers and peripheries the periods of growth in trade match with the periodization of food regimes we find that regime shifts are closely related to changes in societies energy metabolism in the resource base of agricultural production and also to agro ecological crisis our analysis emphasizes that food regimes not only reflect changes in power relations in the world system but also changes in societies natural relations

the high price of dematerialization a dynamic panel data analysis of material use and economic recession abstract dematerialization at the national level occurs almost exclusively during periods of economic recession or low growth while recession is not a sustainable strategy to curb environmental impact such periods may offer important insights on the possibilities of reducing material use economic recession research has focused on the interactions between macroeconomic and financial variables with little systematic research dedicated to uncovering how resource use develops during periods of recession using a dynamic panel model we investigate whether and to what extent material use in a sample of 150 economies between 1970 and 2010 was affected by recession and low growth recession occurred most frequently and in more than two thirds of all countries during the 1980s and the 1990s in the 2000s more than half of the recessions occurred during the financial crisis of 2008 periods of recession were significantly and negatively correlated with material use they tended to coincide with dematerialization material use decreased in recession years but the significant correlations with growth in material use became weaker as growth rates increased construction minerals and metals used to build stocks of manufactured capital reacted more strongly to economic fluctuations than the throughput dominated flows of biomass and fossil fuels we conclude that the systematic link between recession and dematerialization can become policy relevant if the mechanisms causing reductions in material use during these periods are identified

growth in global materials use gdp and population during the 20th century the growing industrial metabolism is a major driver of global environmental change we present an assessment of the global use of materials since the beginning of the 20th century based on the conceptual and methodological principles of material flow accounting mfa on the grounds of published statistical data data compilations and estimation procedures for material flows not covered by international statistical sources we compiled a quantitative estimate of annual global extraction of biomass fossil energy carriers metal ores industrial minerals and construction minerals for the period 1900 to 2005 this period covers important phases of global industrialisation and economic growth the paper analyses the observed changes in the overall size and composition of global material flows in relation to the global economy population growth and primary energy consumption we show that during the last century global materials use increased 8 fold humanity currently uses almost 60 billion tons gt of materials per year in particular the period after wwii was characterized by rapid physical growth driven by both population and economic growth within this period there was a shift from the dominance of renewable biomass towards mineral materials materials use increased at a slower pace than the global economy but faster than world population as a consequence material intensity i e the amount of materials required per unit of gdp declined while materials use per capita doubled from 4 6 to 10 3 t cap yr the main material groups show different trajectories while biomass use hardly keeps up with population growth the mineral fractions grow at a rapid pace we show that increases in material productivity are mostly due to the slow growth of biomass use while they are much less pronounced for the mineral fractions so far there is no evidence that growth of global materials use is slowing down or might eventually decline and our results indicate that an increase in material productivity is a general feature of economic development

the impact of delivery lags on irreversible investment under uncertainty abstract we consider the valuation and rational exercise of irreversible investment opportunities in the presence of revenue uncertainty and delivery lags in order to capture supply side market imperfections in the markets for investment goods we assume that the lag depends on the revenue process faced by the investor we show that such imperfections have a pronounced decelerating impact on rational investment demand as they may increase the value of waiting in excess of the exercise payoff even for projects which otherwise would be perceived as highly remunerative we also consider the comparative static properties of the optimal investment policy and its value and demonstrate that typically increased uncertainty decreases the investment incentives by increasing the value of waiting

oil and international energy this article focuses on issues surrounding international oil markets within the wider context of international energy the global economy and conflicting agendas such as energy security and climate change it is suggested that important aspects of the current situation appear unsustainable increasing uncertainty and raising methodological difficulties for any assessment of likely future developments it is argued that the dynamics of oil prices during the 2002 9 cycle reflected great uncertainty about future fundamentals as well as the absence of previously anticipated stabilizing feedbacks from supply from demand or from policy it is suggested that damaging oil price swings could be moderated by better policy though probably not by financial regulation in the longer term the uncertainties remain very great especially since the tensions between a realist view of likely energy market developments and the imperatives of the climate change agenda remain unresolved a wide range of policies in producer and consumer countries are likely to affect not only oil prices but also the contentious issue of the distribution of rents within the industry copyright 2011 oxford university press

patterns of change in material use and material efficiency in the successor states of the former soviet union the successor states of the former soviet union present a unique opportunity to study the changes in the socio metabolic profile of a cohort of nations which underwent a radical and contemporaneous shift in economic system that change was from being regions within an economically integrated centrally planned whole to being independent nations left to find their own place in the global economic system the situation of these nations since the dissolution of the soviet union provides a rare experiment in which we might observe the influence of the different starting conditions of each nation on the development path it subsequently followed and the attendant socio metabolic profiles which resulted here we take the opportunity to examine patterns for the region as a whole and for three individual countries we also examine the relative importance of three different drivers of material consumption using a version of the ipat framework finally an area for follow on investigation was suggested by a significant positive correlation observed between the economic growth of individual successor states and the degree to which they improved their material productivity this latter is of potential importance in assessing whether dematerialization acts primarily to accelerate or retard economic growth

the material basis of the global economy worldwide patterns of natural resource extraction and their implications for sustainable resource use policies abstract material flow accounting and analysis mfa has been established as an influential framework for quantifying the use of natural resources by modern societies so far however no reference data for overall scale and trends of global extraction of natural resources and their distribution between different world regions has been available this paper presents the first comprehensive quantification of the material basis of the global economy i e used domestic extraction in a time series from 1980 to 2002 we analyse time trends for major material groups fossil fuels metals industrial and construction minerals and biomass disaggregated into seven world regions this allows for a an illustration of the global economy s physical growth driven by worldwide processes of economic integration over the past decades and b an indication of the worldwide distribution of environmental pressures associated with material extraction the results show that annual resource consumption of the world economy increased by about one third between 1980 and 2002 this indicates that scale effects due to economic growth more than compensated for other effects such as the relative increase of the service sectors contribution to gdp structural effect and the use of new production technologies with higher material and energy efficiency technology effect the observed growth of natural resource extraction is unevenly distributed over the main material categories with metals showing the highest growth rate the regional analysis shows the increasing importance of asia and latin america in global resource extraction on the global level material intensity i e resource extraction per unit of gdp decreased by about 25 indicating relative decoupling of resource extraction from economic growth the paper concludes with policy recommendations for a more sustainable use of natural resources

unequal raw material exchange between and within countries galicia nw spain as a core periphery economy abstract a global multi regional input output model with sub national resolution for galicia north west spain was used to study physical and value added trade balances between galicia the rest of spain and the world within the framework of ecologically unequal exchange theory we argue that a region such as galicia can play a twofold role as core and periphery in the global division of extractive activities we show that galicia is a sink i e net importer of natural resources from middle and low income economies and that the lower the income of the trade partner the more raw material intensive the imports measured as upstream kg per usd imported value added however this physical deficit is less accentuated than for the rest of spain and galicia s material footprint is significantly lower 14 2 compared with 24 5 t capita moreover galicia is a source i e net exporter of raw materials compared with more thriving european union economies and even for some key trade partners such as germany uk and the rest of spain it is a net importer of value added

complementary system perspectives in ecological macroeconomics the example of transition investments during the crisis globally societies are facing a number of interrelated environmental economic and social crises this paper is intended to contribute to the development of an ecological macroeconomics that addresses these multiple crises in combination insights from different research communities will be included in this effort taking an ecological economic understanding of sustainability as the point of departure and inspired by systems thinking it is discussed which economic sub systems should be in focus for sustainability transitions and whether relevant guides for sustainability can be formulated for these systems in particular the focus is on systems that are decisive for resource consumption and pollution although their influence on these is indirect a simple typology of sub systems is suggested and applied in relation to an example that highlights the importance of the interplay between macroeconomic provision and distribution systems the example concerns investments in sustainability transitions of provision systems and demonstrates the complexities of implementing such transformations during the economic crisis it also addresses the need for ecological macroeconomics to develop a third position beyond austerity policies and keynesian approaches

comparing a territorial based and a consumption based approach to assess the local and global environmental performance of cities abstract in the framework of pressing local and global environmental challenges it is essential to understand that cities are complex systems dependent on and linked to the rest of the world through global supply chains that embody an array of environmental flows cities are thus a complex articulation that intertwine local and global challenges which rely at their extended hinterland for their resource use and pollution emission to assess the environmental sustainability of an urban area in a comprehensive manner it is not only necessary to measure its local and direct environmental performance but also to understand and take into account its global and indirect environmental counterparts this paper presents a comparative analysis of a territorial based and a consumption based approach to estimate both direct and embodied resource use and pollution flows for the case of brussels capital region belgium the territorial based approach is based on local energy water and material consumption measured data as well as measured data on waste generation and pollution emissions the estimation of indirect resource use and pollution emissions or consumption based approach is based on the regional io tables of the city region of brussels extended with multi region input output tables taking into account the global flows of consumption the comparison of these two approaches is particularly relevant in the case of cities that have limited productive activities and limited or no extraction of materials as the impact on the hinterland is often underestimated or neglected by local environmental policies which are only based on territorial based figures the results show that the indirect primary energy use ghg emissions and material use estimated by the consumption based approach is more than three times higher than local measures indicate the embodied water use estimated via ioa was over 40 times higher than the local water consumption these results show that territorial based approach using local data underestimate the resource needs and pollution emissions of a city and can therefore be insufficient or even be misguiding by mapping the origin of embodied flows it is in fact possible to illustrate the open character of an urban economy and its dependence on the global hinterland finally this paper discusses the possibility and relevance to combine these two approaches to create a hybrid framework that measures the full environmental performance of cities both accurately and comprehensively

india s biophysical economy 1961 2008 sustainability in a national and global context india s economic growth in the last decade has raised several concerns in terms of its present and future resource demands for materials and energy while per capita resource consumption is still extremely modest but on the rise its sheer population qualifies india as a fast growing giant with material and energy throughput that is growing rapidly if such national and local trends continue the challenges for regional national as well as global sustainability are immense in terms of future resource availability social conflicts pressure on land and ecosystems and atmospheric emissions using the concepts of social metabolism and material flow analysis this paper presents an original study quantifying resource use trajectories for india from 1961 up to 2008 we argue for india s need to grow in order to be able to provide a reasonable material standard of living for its vast population to this end the challenge is in avoiding the precarious path so far followed by industrialised countries in europe and asia but to opt for a regime shift towards sustainability in terms of resource use by building on a host of promising examples and taking opportunities of existing niches to make india a trendsetter

optimal experimentation in a changing environment this paper studies optimal experimentation by a monopolist who faces an unknown demand curve subject to random changes and who maximizes profits over an infinite horizon in continuous time we show that there are two qualitatively very different regimes determined by the discount rate and the intensities of demand curve switching and the dependence of the optimal policy on these parameters is discontinuous one regime is characterized by extreme experimentation and good tracking of the prevailing demand curve the other by moderate experimentation and poor tracking moreover in the latter regime the agent eventually becomes trapped into taking actions in a strict subset of the feasible set

global patterns of materials use a socioeconomic and geophysical analysis abstract human use of materials is a major driver of global environmental change the links between materials use and economic development are central to the challenge of decoupling of materials use and economic growth dematerialization this article presents a new global material flow dataset compiled for the year 2000 covering 175 countries including both extraction and trade flows and comprising four major material categories biomass construction minerals fossil energy carriers and ores industrial minerals first we quantify the variability and distributional inequality gini coefficients in international material consumption we then measure the influence of the drivers population gdp land area and climate this analysis yields international income elasticities of material use finally we examine the coupling between material flows and between income and material productivity measured in economic production per tonne material consumed material productivity is strongly coupled to income and may thus not be suitable as an international indicator of environmental progress a finding which we relate to the economic inelasticity of material consumption the results demonstrate striking differences between the material groups biomass is the most equitably distributed resource economically the most inelastic and is not correlated to any of the mineral materials the three mineral material groups are closely coupled to each other and economic activity indicating that the challenge of dematerializing industrial economies may require fundamental structural transformation our analysis provides a first systematic investigation of international differences in material use and their drivers and thus serves as the basis for more detailed future work

hidden linkages between resources and economy a beyond gdp approach using alternative welfare indicators taking gdp as the standard economic indicator for economic welfare recent resources economy studies indicate the dematerialization of the economy the so called decoupling effect this conclusion seems to alleviate concerns over resource scarcity and limits to growth and feeds optimism for green growth and sustainability prospects however the validity of gdp as the sole and unambiguous measure of the ultimate outcome of the economy has been severely disputed there is nowadays increasing interest in broader welfare measurements that capture more aspects of economic output and hence constitute better approximations of well being the present paper provides an overview of the above discussion and sets out to explore the relevance of three alternative welfare indicators the human development index hdi the index of sustainable economic welfare isew and the genuine progress indicator gpi as a basis for evaluating the dependency of welfare and its major engine the economy on natural resources increasing welfare appears to require a disproportionate use of resources strong and increasing dependency on resources at the global level and in giant countries such as china and india may have serious implications for current sustainability policies and the united nations sustainable development goals

the rational timing of parliamentary elections this paper presents a rational choice model for the timing of parliamentary elections in political systems where the government has the option of calling an early election the optimal timing of elections involves the government weighing the benefits of calling an election versus the costs and is modelled mathematically as an optimal stopping problem the model implies that the timing of elections depends upon time left in the government s term the degree of electoral uncertainty the volatility of government popularity the government s time rate of discount and institutional constraints such as the length of term and whether the government is likely to be forced from power by a vote of no confidence

who surfs who manipulates the determinants of opportunistic election timing and electorally motivated economic intervention in this paper i develop a career concerns model of government policy choice within a dynamic optimal stopping framework to predict the degree of surfing opportunistic timing and manipulation politically motivated economic intervention under alternate institutional structures and voter characteristics among other results i find that the likelihood of opportunistic elections rises with exogenous economic performance with longer maximum term lengths with future electoral uncertainty and with economic volatility but diminishes in the value of office holding manipulation increases with the maximum term length and with the value of office holding but decreases with exogenous economic performance and with economic volatility the model suggests that single party governments should be highly opportunistic in calling elections and that countries that allow opportunistic election timing should experience less economically distortionary political intervention than their fixed timing counterparts

how countries resource use history matters for human well being an investigation of global patterns in cumulative material flows from 1950 to 2010 abstract global resource use has been expanding rapidly after 1950 and improved material living conditions and human well being of large parts of the global population we here apply a cumulative long term perspective to gain broader insights into the material requirements of human well being the role of trade and the history of environmental pressures than the usual perspective of annual or most recent flows would reveal furthermore we investigate environmental pressures expressed as cumulative extraction per area over the last 60 years to both ends we utilize cumulative data on material flows on domestic material inputs dmi and domestic extraction de for 148 countries from 1950 to 2010 and the social progress index we find that a high level of well being required at least 460 t cap of cumulative material inputs from 1950 to 2010 an analysis of the relation between cumulative flows and current human well being shows statistically significant that at similar levels of cumulative material inputs biophysical export orientation of a country has a weak negative influence on well being when the sustainable development goals are to be achieved the scientific community and policy makers have to consider the history of development of resource use to better understand the future challenges ahead

quantifying u s aluminum in use stocks and their relationship with economic output abstract a dynamic material flow analysis model is developed to quantify aluminum in use stocks and old scrap recycling and recovery in the united states for the period of 1900 to 2007 the total in use aluminum stock in 2007 is estimated as 93 million metric tons which represents approximately 34 of the cumulative apparent consumption since 1900 alternately since 1900 nearly 40 of the cumulative discarded aluminum has not been recycled for domestic use in the u s or for export to foreign consumers statistical time series analysis is used to explore the relationship between model results of in use stocks and gross domestic product gdp unlike most previous studies of material consumption and economic activity which ignore the statistical properties of time series data to the detriment of model estimation and inference data stationarity is explicitly evaluated through unit root testing and model specification is adjusted accordingly the annual percentage change in gdp is found to have a large and significant association with the annual percentage change in net additions to in use stocks model sensitivity and uncertainty are quantified through the application of the fourier amplitude sensitivity test and alternate specifications of product lifetime probability density functions

the biophysical perspective of a middle income economy material flows in mexico abstract we analyse natural resource use dynamics in the mexican economy during the last three decades despite low and uneven economic growth the extraction and use of materials in the mexican economy has continuously increased during the last 30 years in this period population growth rather than economic growth was the main driving force for biophysical growth in addition fundamental changes have taken place in the primary sectors in manufacturing and in household consumption and these are reflected in an increasing emphasis on the use of fossil fuels and construction materials mexico s economy has been strongly influenced by international trade since the country commenced competing in international markets in the 1970s mexico mainly exported primary resources this pattern has changed and manufactured goods now have a much greater importance due to a boom in assembling industries in contrast with other latin american countries mexico has achieved a diversification of production moving towards technology intensive products and a better mix in its export portfolio however crude oil exports still represent the single most important export good mexico s material consumption is still well below the oecd average but is growing fast and the current resource use patterns may well present serious social and environmental problems to the medium and long term sustainability of mexico s economy and community information on natural resource use and resource productivity could provide valuable guidance for economic policy planning in mexico

drivers of socially responsible investing a case study of four nordic countries in this study we try to establish what determines the substantial differences in the nordic countries size and composition of socially responsible investing sri we investigate if these differences between denmark finland norway and sweden can be associated with key characteristics in economics finance culture and institutions we find that in particular economic openness the size of the pension industry and cultural values of masculinity femininity and uncertainty avoidance can be associated with the differences in sri in the four countries on basis of these findings we lay foundations for an international theory of sri

the euthanasia of the rentier a way toward a steady state economy abstract a positive interest rate has many impacts on ecology one of them is the pushing of economic growth in the present economy accumulation of capital is an end in itself according to the golden rule of accumulation the extension rate of the capital stock is equal to the interest rate however in the present economic conditions the interest rate is always significantly higher than zero due to the liquidity premium of money keynes in this context old proposals such as the free money approach of silvio gesell could provide interesting solutions gesell wanted to neutralize the liquidity premium by putting artificial carrying costs on money by increasing the stock of capital assets without being interrupted by economic crises the interest and profitability level should be reduced down to zero because in this situation every marginal saving and marginal investment would cause a negative interest or profitability rate they would be stopped though keynes was very excited by the proposals of gesell he criticized the fact that gesell did not see many of the further obstacles however these obstacles could be overcome by means of further institutional reforms

foreign trade and early industrialisation in the habsburg monarchy and the united kingdom two extremes in comparison the concept of socio ecological transitions is used to analyse the quantitative importance of physical imports and exports for the habsburg empire and the united kingdom in the 19th and early 20th centuries for the habsburg empire a new dataset of foreign trade and social metabolism is presented for the united kingdom the analysis relies on previously published data foreign trade volumes increased in both countries in the long run total trade volumes were much higher in the united kingdom throughout the entire time period on average by around a factor four physical factors explaining the disparities in structure and volume of foreign trade in the two countries are differences in 1 the temporal patterns of the socio ecological transition and 2 domestic resource endowments in both countries energy carrying materials i e fossil fuels and biomass were the dominant resources in physical foreign trade the analysis focuses on the physically most important material groups coal wood and cereals and discusses the role of imports and exports in relation to domestic resource provision and environmental pressures physical foreign trade increased at a faster pace than domestic resource extraction and consumption the socio ecological transition was thus accompanied by rising international integration of resource supply

a meta analysis investigation of the direction of the energy gdp causal relationship implications for the growth degrowth dialogue abstract the complex relation between energy use and the economic process has long attracted attention issues such as the scarcity of energy resources energy theory of value degrowth and a growth approaches are closely related to the relationship between energy and development the present study traces the implications of the energy gdp causality dialogue for the context of the growth degrowth debate where the energy development link plays a decisive role in that context the present research investigates the possible existence of a fundamental macro direction of causality between energy use and economic growth that is not influenced by study specific characteristics and events towards this objective we perform a meta analysis that takes into account 158 studies on causality between energy and gdp covering the period 1978 2011 this is the first time to our knowledge that meta analysis has been applied to investigate the direction of the energy and gdp causal relationship the meta analysis results neither support the existence of a fundamental macro direction nor the so called neutrality hypothesis e gdp in the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth

in search of substantive economics comparing today s two major socio metabolic approaches to the economy mefa and musiasem ecological economics is largely about the substantive in kind study of the economy as opposed to a purely formal economic analysis in money following kapp polanyi and others this article argues that substantive economics is interested in the biophysical and politico institutional structure of the economy rather than in correct prices within a particular axiomatic conformity as in formal economics after outlining the history of the substantive vs formal dichotomy we point out that socio metabolic analyses are ecological economics most significant contribution towards substantive economics the core of this article then compares what could be today s two best candidates for offering a distinctive foundation to ecological economics as substantive economics material and energy flows analyses mefa and multi scale integrated analyses of societal and ecosystem metabolism musiasem while mefa is more easily comparative and historical musiasem is more integrative and comprehensive yet we also argue that socio metabolic analyses represent one of the three pillars of substantive economics and that both mefa and musiasem are still weak in integrating the politico institutional structure second pillar and a theory of needs third pillar if such an integration was done ecological economics would be in a position to offer a full fledge alternative substantive economic theory

what causes inequality in material productivity between countries abstract material productivity mp is a sustainability indicator that measures usage efficiency for raw materials the use of natural resources has grown steeply since the industrial revolution and this growth has even accelerated in recent decades it has thus become critical to monitor the intensity of natural resource usage when producing intermediate or final goods discovering which socio economic variables influence the mp indicator and explain differences between economic units is nowadays a key issue on average mp has increased over the past two decades but at the same time so has disparity between countries this paper s contribution consists in discovering the explanatory variables for both these phenomena in order to achieve that aim a regression based inequality decomposition rbid methodology is used the original fields rbid model has been transformed into a logarithmic model which allows us to directly obtain the elasticity of mp to changes in its drivers the sample we use is broadly representative of the worldwide situation in the years 1990 2010 our main results are that in terms of explaining inequalities and changes in mp the agricultural share of gdp is the most relevant explanatory variable and that this is followed by affluence the explanatory powers of population density and trade openness are perhaps surprisingly of much lower importance the results are useful not only in academic terms but also for policy guidance

the management of risk in developing country finance the commencement of the international debt cri sis is normally linked to the mexican statement of non payment in august 1982 over the seven years of the crisis the costs have been well documented cornia et al 1987 however after numerous plans and proposals little consensus has emeiged amongst creditors on the appropriate solution strat egy let alone between the creditor and debtor countries indeed the discussions following the latest debt proposals of the us treasury secretary nicholas brady have highlighted the many areas of controversy rather than provided a coherent solu tion to a better functioning financing system 1

partisan effects in economies with variable electoral terms in fixed time electoral economies partisan surprises are associated with a change in government as in alberto alesina 1987 this paper models additional partisan surprises present in variable electoral term economies due to the timing of the change in government two versions of the model are presented one in which the timing of the change is exogenous and one in which it is endogenous the model is interesting as it provides an explanation of movements in expected inflation output and employment in all periods not just those immediately after an election as in fixed electoral term models copyright 1991 by ohio state university press

biophysical structure of the ecuadorian economy foreign trade and policy implications abstract at the core of this paper lays the notion that a systematic analysis of material flow accounts enables us to discuss the sustainability of an economic model ecuador is going through a socio ecological transition from an agrarian towards an industrial regime based on the use of nonrenewable sources of materials and energy direct material flow indicators are used in this article to analyze the ecological dimension of the economy of ecuador during 1970 2007 this approach enables the concept of societal metabolism to become operative the paper compares societal metabolic profiles showing that per capita use of materials is still at about one fifth of the average in the high income countries of the world physical flows of trade indicate that there is an ecologically unequal exchange whereas a positive trade balance is desirable from an economic policy its counterpart in physical units has been a persistent net outflow of material resources the extraction of which causes environmental impacts and social conflicts

population matters in ecological economics abstract it is an axiom of ecological economics that resource depletion and environmental pollution depend on the number of people and how many goods and services each consumes modified by the technological efficiency of production the paper reviews some studies quantifying the contribution of human numbers to environmental impact it warns against playing this factor off against that of high consumption in rich countries it asks whether from the environmental point of view complacency about either present or predicted population size is warranted the answer depends both on fertility and mortality assumptions and on constraints such as resource and food availability the concept of cultural carrying capacity would aid societies in determining their optimal population when account is taken not only of subsistence but of quality of life a population control toolkit for both rich and poor societies is sketched and some controversial coercive policy possibilities analysed

a noncooperative theory of legislative coalitions this noncooperative theory is based on a model that incorporates an institutional structure that reflects the sequential process of agenda formation and voting in a legislature that has the task of allocating particularistic benefits among legislative districts the theory is intended to identify the incentives for the formation of proposal coordinating coalitions as a function of characteristics of the political system and the rules that govern agenda formation coalition proposals allocate all the benefits to their districts and whenever the coalition has discipline or controls the chair it will be of minimal winning size when proposals are governed by a closed rule when coalition discipline is absent and the chair is neutral the coalition will be comprised of approximately 70 of the legislature a legislative rule that allows amendments may result in larger coalitions coalition composition is also considered

monetary and fiscal policy in the great moderation and the great recession in this paper we argue for a new approach to monetary and fiscal policy during the great moderation the inflation targeting regime worked well central banks used the interest rate to stabilize inflation and subject to inflation being controlled stabilized the level of demand fiscal policy exerted discipline over the public sector deficits thereby indirectly managing the level of public debt such fiscal housekeeping worked well because the monetary authorities were stabilizing the economy but once private sector deleveraging led to the great recession and interest rates hit their zero bound the outcome could no longer be managed by monetary policy recovery depended on the automatic stabilizers output and tax revenues have fallen public debt has been created and assets have been created which a deleveraging private sector wishes to hold but the effect has been very gradual recovery would have been faster if fiscal policy had been responsible for the restoration of full employment in an environment which tolerated the necessary rises in public debt conversely policies of austerity designed to reduce public debt have slowed the recovery growth will not be resumed until the private sector begins to invest strongly again creating the financial assets which the private sector wishes to hold thereby enabling public debt to be retired this has not yet happened because the private sector correctly does not believe that macroeconomic policy is capable of sustaining a strong recovery

changes in the united kingdom s natural relations in terms of society s metabolism and land use from 1850 to the present day abstract in this paper we present our understanding of how society and nature have interacted in the course of history in terms of society s metabolic interchange with the biophysical environment presenting a theoretical model we begin by focusing on the interface between society and nature society s natural relations as conceptualized by the idea of metabolism which draws upon marxist theory complemented by a systems approach the concept of metabolism portrays society as a system which has to establish and maintain a permanent throughput of energy and matter to produce and maintain society s material components the amount of resource flow is operationalized by using material and energy flow accounting methods empirically these methods are applied to the uk s economy in a time series approach from 1850 to the present day we discuss different aggregates of inputs such as domestic material extraction foreign trade of materials energy input and additionally give an account of land use change obviously these changing natural relations are linked to socio economic activities hence we make a first attempt to discuss different periods of socio economic development by drawing from a regulation approach and try to link them to physical indicators such as direct material and energy input and domestic material consumption dmc thereby we hope to contribute to a historical understanding of socio economically driven environmental change within the framework of ecological economics

american option pricing under garch by a markov chain approximation abstract we propose a numerical method for valuing american options in general and for the garch option pricing model in particular the method is based on approximating the underlying asset price process by a finite state time homogeneous markov chain since the markov transition probability matrix can be derived analytically the price of an american option can be computed by simple matrix operations the markov transition probability matrix is typically sparse the use of a sparse matrix representation can substantially increase the dimension of the markov chain to obtain better numerical results the markov chain method works well for the garch option pricing framework and it serves as an alternative to the existing numerical methods for the valuation of american options in other pricing settings we provide a convergence proof for the markov chain method and analyze its numerical performance for the black scholes 1973 and garch option pricing models

the swing voter s curse the authors analyze two candidate elections in which some voters are uncertain about the realization of a state variable that affects the utility of all voters they demonstrate the existence of a swing voter s curse less informed indifferent voters strictly prefer to abstain rather than vote for either candidate even when voting is costless the swing voter s curse leads to the equilibrium result that a substantial fraction of the electorate will abstain even though all abstainers strictly prefer voting for one candidate over voting for another copyright 1996 by american economic association

socio ecological regime transitions in austria and the united kingdom we employ the concepts of socio ecological regime and regime transition to better understand the biophysical causes and consequences of industrialization for two case studies the united kingdom and austria we describe two steps in a major transition from an agrarian to an industrial socio ecological regime and the resulting consequences for energy use land use and labour organization in a first step the coal based industrial regime co existed with an agricultural sector remaining within the bounds of the old regime in a second step the oil electricity based industrial regime agriculture was integrated into the new pattern and the socio ecological transition had been completed industrialization offers an answer to the input and growth related sustainability problems of the agrarian regime but creates new sustainability problems of a larger scale while today s industrial societies are stabilizing their resource use albeit at an unsustainable level large parts of the global society are in midst of the old industrial transition this poses severe problems for global sustainability

a case study of a phosphorus chemical firm s application of resource efficiency and eco efficiency in industrial metabolism under circular economy abstract circular economy plays an essential and useful role in china in considering economic and ecological sustainability individual firms as the primary implements of a circular economy are facing many obstacles at present in aspects of resource and ecological efficiency therefore this study presents a set of tools to help decision makers better solve these problems and to guide resource based chemical industries in sustainable development first this study describes resource efficiency based on the sfa of a selected p chemistry firm and identifies the key potential opportunities for improvement using analysis tools and assessment tools furthermore by applying eco design and decision tools a firm level p chemical circular economic system is designed and constructed a phosphorus chemical optimization model is established and relevant successive scenarios are generated finally the corresponding feasible solutions and policy recommendations are proposed to improve economic benefit resource efficiency waste recycling rate and eco efficiency after industry design planning and technological progress the total economic benefit increases dramatically and the recycling efficiencies of accompanying resources f si i and s improve by different degrees the results demonstrate that the economic benefit of phosphorus products increases by 28 5 and p utilization efficiency correspondingly increases from 81 1 to 94 7 the comprehensive utilization efficiency of phosphor gypsum increases to 100 and the eco efficiency could be improved significantly by eliminating the phosphor gypsum stack this study demonstrates that technological progress in mineral processing and the production of associated products is the endogenic motivation to increase economic benefit and improve resource efficiency the method proposed in this paper can be applied duplicated and spread not only within the p chemical industry but also in other resource based chemical industries

on the mechanism and effects of innovation search for safety and independence of resource constraints expands the safe operating range the paper reflects the hypothesis that those technological and institutional innovations survive which extend the safe operating range sor of the humans technologies institutions hti system e g companies cities regions and countries the multidimensional sor of a country comprises in particular safe livelihood quality of life security monetary stability supply security and quality of the environment a mechanism of progress is described involving the search for higher safety and independence of constraints with innovation and learning in a key role the mechanism leads to a relative decoupling of resource use and economic value added and a growing share of knowledge generation in the economy competition of hti systems for scarce resources may lead to independence strategies such as enhanced resource efficiency it may also lead to cooperation of competing hti systems facilitated by new institutions thus forming an hti system at higher level of complexity while the consortium could coordinate their resource consumption within the boundaries of safe operating space the partner hti systems would further expand their sor data is provided that net resource importing countries have developed higher material productivity thus increasing their independence from resource supply and countries with such capability have gained higher innovation capacity

home is where the equity is mortgage refinancing and household consumption applying a permanent income model with exogenous liquidity constraints and mortgage behavior household refinancing when mortgage interest rates are historically high and rising a persistent empirical puzzle is explained using data from the panel study of income dynamics households experiencing an unemployment shock and having limited initial liquid assets to draw upon are shown to have been 25 more likely to refinance 1991 94 on average such liquidity constrained households converted over two thirds of every dollar of equity they removed into current consumption as mortgage rates plummeted 1991 94 producing an estimated expenditure stimulus of at least 28 billion

the effect of globalisation on water consumption a case study of the spanish virtual water trade 1849 1935 abstract this paper aims to analyse the impact on water consumption of trade expansion in the first era of globalisation to that end we have chosen the case of spain a semi arid country with significant cyclical water shortages more specifically we are interested in answering the following questions what volume of water was required for exports of agricultural and food products how did this variable evolve over time which factors drove this evolution in short we wish to understand the impact on water resources of spain s entry into world agriculture and food markets firstly we examine virtual water trade flows in the long run secondly we attempt to disentangle certain major driving forces underlying these trajectories in order to establish the role played by trade in the final net balance of water a decomposition analysis da is applied our findings show the great pressures that the first globalisation imposed on not only domestic but also foreign water resources trade volumes as well as trade patterns were essential factors driving rising virtual water flows while yield improvements contributed smoothly to moderation in the expansion of water flows

ecosystem service arguments enhance public support for environmental protection but beware of the numbers abstract the trend in the discourse around environmental protection towards arguments based on ecosystem services and monetary valuation has prompted considerable controversy among academics and practitioners concerned with conservation this paper informs the debate by exploring which arguments are most effective in garnering support for environmental protection in a survey based online experiment participants stated their level of dis approval of a large scale hydropower dam project after being presented with various kinds of arguments and information about the environmental impacts the results show that ecosystem service arguments reduced levels of approval of the dam significantly i e they increased support for environmental protection however moral ecological arguments for protecting the environment proved even more effective while a combination of both types of arguments reduced the dam approval ratings the most including a cost benefit analysis cba with monetary valuation of the costs of losing ecosystem services altered dam approval upwards or downwards depending on the outcome of the cba the approval rates of males of older participants and of politically right wing participants were particularly sensitive to the outcomes of monetary valuation more research is needed to understand the short and long term influence of different environmental discourses on peoples judgments and levels of environmental concern

optimal electoral timing exercise wisely and you may live longer using insights from option pricing in finance we explore the electoral timing problem in a flexible term democracy we assume that politic ally heterogeneous voters continuously learn over time about the evolving party merits this yields a mean reverting stochastic process for the support of the parties the incumbent sees its poll support and must call an election within five years o f the last election we assume that it wishes to maximize its expected total time in office so that this resembles the optimal exercise rule for an american financial o ption we characterize how the renewable election option behaves as waiting and stopping values interact we then calibrate our model to the labour tory rivalry in the u k with polling data from 1943 2005 and the 16 elections after 1945 excluding three elections essentially forced by weak governments our maximizing story explains when the elections were called quite well we also measure the value of election options finding that over the long run they should more than double the expected time in power of a fixed term electoral cycle