landlords versus tenants information asymmetry and mismatched preferences for home energy efficiency abstract new zealand homes are poorly insulated by international standards there are government subsidies available for people to improve the energy efficiency of their homes but uptake has been relatively low among owners of rental properties this paper presents the results of a choice experiment used to investigate the preferences of home owners and tenants for insulation and heating upgrades the responses indicate that landlords may underestimate how cold their rental properties are in winter considering the level of discomfort reported by tenants median willingness to pay wtp for improved insulation by landlords is only 50 70 of owner occupier values landlords are willing to pay more for a heating appliance than any other retrofit option in contrast tenants have a low wtp for the heating appliance and would prefer under floor insulation tenants express a willingness to pay higher rent in exchange for improved energy efficiency at a rate that would appear to make such upgrades economic for the landlord information asymmetry and lack of appropriate market signals may be a large part of the reason why many landlords are not willing to pay market prices for energy efficiency upgrades

the value priority hypotheses for consumer budget plans based on the behavioral sciences and mathematical programming we hypothesize that consumers rank durables by a value or net value priority approximated by utility per dollar or utility minus price and plan to choose items in that order up to a budget cutoff this paper derives these hypotheses and develops a convergent linear programming procedure to estimate utility using primary field data on reservation prices purchase probabilities lottery orders and combination prizes we estimate utilities and compare the hypotheses to 215 actual budget plans lisrel v analysis provides further support for the hypotheses

an analysis of the tradeoff between advertising and price discounting the authors examine an important influence on the price advertising tradeoff the ratio of price and advertising elasticities their theoretical analysis stresses the centrality of the elasticity r

design and analysis of simulated consumer choice or allocation experiments an approach based on aggregate data the authors integrate concepts in conjoint analysis and discrete choice theory in econometrics to develop a new approach to the design and analysis of controlled consumer choice or resource allocat

microstructure noise realized variance and optimal sampling a recent and extensive literature has pioneered the summing of squared observed intra daily returns realized variance to estimate the daily integrated variance of financial asset prices a traditional object of economic interest we show that in the presence of market microstructure noise realized variance does not identify the daily integrated variance of the frictionless equilibrium price however we demonstrate that the noise induced bias at very high sampling frequencies can be appropriately traded off with the variance reduction obtained by high frequency sampling and derive a mean squared error mse optimal sampling theory for the purpose of integrated variance estimation we show how our theory naturally leads to an identification procedure which allows us to recover the moments of the unobserved noise this procedure may be useful in other applications finally using the profits obtained by option traders on the basis of alternative variance forecasts as our economic metric we find that explicit optimization of realized variance s finite sample mse properties results in accurate forecasts and considerable economic gains copyright 2008 wiley blackwell

analytical evaluation of volatility forecasts estimation and forecasting for realistic continuous time stochastic volatility models is hampered by the lack of closed form expressions for the likelihood in response andersen bollerslev diebold and labys econometrica 71 2003 579 625 advocate forecasting integrated volatility via reduced form models for the realized volatility constructed by summing high frequency squared returns building on the eigenfunction stochastic volatility models we present analytical expressions for the forecast efficiency associated with this reduced form approach as a function of sampling frequency for popular models like garch multifactor affine and lognormal diffusions the reduced form procedures perform remarkably well relative to the optimal infeasible forecasts

paired comparison and contingent valuation approaches to morbidity risk valuation abstract this research uses an experimental approach for eliciting consumer valuations of morbidity risk reductions associated with safter chemical products and introduces the paired comparison questions approach to non market valuation in four applications the paired comparisons approach yields higher morbidity valuations than the more familiar contingent valuation approach however both methodologies produce large values of morbidity reduction benefits in comparison to estimates derived from wage hedonic studies explanations for the difference in the estimates and their magnitudes are suggested along with the public policy implications

ordering effects and choice set awareness in repeat response stated preference studies we present an experiment designed to investigate the presence and nature of ordering effects within repeat response stated preference sp studies our experiment takes the form of a large sample full factorial discrete choice sp exercise investigating preferences for tap water quality improvements our study simultaneously investigates a variety of different forms of position dependent and precedent dependent ordering effect in preferences for attributes and options and in response randomness we also examine whether advanced disclosure of the choice tasks impacts on the probability of exhibiting ordering effects of those different types we analyze our data both non parametrically and parametrically and find robust evidence for ordering effects we also find that the patterns of order effect in respondents preferences are significantly changed but not eradicated by the advanced disclosure of choice tasks a finding that offers insights into the choice behaviors underpinning order effects

herding with and without payoff externalities an internet experiment most real world situations that are susceptible to herding are also characterized by direct payoff externalities yet the bulk of the theoretical and experimental literature on herding has focused on pure informational externalities in this paper we experimentally investigate the effects of several different forms of payoff externalities e g network effects first mover advantage etc in a standard information based herding model our results are based on an internet experiment with more than 6000 subjects of which more than 2400 participated in the treatments reported here including a subsample of 267 consultants from an international consulting firm we also replicate and review earlier cascade experiments finally we study reputation effects i e the influence of success models in the context of herding

a factor analytic probit model for representing the market structure in panel data internal market structure analysis infers both brand attributes and consumer preferences for those attributes from preference or choice data the authors exploit a new method for estimating probit models from panel data to infer market structures that can be displayed in few dimensions even though the model can represent every possible vector of purchase probabilities

practice prize report an assortmentwide decision support system for dynamic pricing and promotion planning in diy retailing the main objective of this report is to describe a decision support system for dynamic retail pricing and promotion planning our weekly demand model incorporates price reference price effects seasonality article availability information features and discounts building on previous research we quantify demand interdependencies and integrate the resulting profit lifting effects into the optimal pricing model the methodology was developed and implemented at baumax an austrian do it yourself retailer along with the practical requirements an objective function was employed that can be used as a vehicle for implementing a retailer s strategy eight pricing rounds with thousands of different stock keeping units have each served as a testing ground for our approach based on various benchmarking methods a positive impact on profit was reported the currently implemented marketing decision support system increased gross profit on average by 8 1 and sales by 2 1

advertising competition under consumer inertia we construct a multistage game theoretic model of advertising and price competition in a differentiated products duopoly in which proportions of consumers exhibit latent inertia in favor of repeat purchase advertising simultaneously plays the dual role in reducing such inertia through awareness and enhancing perceived brand value persuasion we derive the advertising price cross effects and provide a theoretical reconciliation of the longstanding debate in the marketing literature regarding the impact of advertising on price sensitivity we characterize the nature of equilibria under symmetry and show that when a large proportion of consumers exhibit inertial tendencies then a multiplicity of equilibria exists marketing implications and comparative statics are discussed numerical simulations for asymmetric firms are presented wherein we show that advertising is not a useful competitive tool for small firms however advertising spending by the large firm provides a halo effect for the average prices in the category which has a positive externality on the small firm s profits in the absence of the small brand advertising larger brand shares encourage firms to allocate higher expenditures on advertising to enhance the perceived value of their brand which in turn shore up the average prices in the industry from which all firms benefit

a prelaunch diffusion model for evaluating market defense strategies this paper describes the development and application of a marketing model to help set an incumbent s defensive marketing strategy prior to a new competitor s launch the management problem addressed is to assess the market share impact of a new entrant in the residential australian long distance telephone call market and determine the factors that would influence its dynamics and ultimate market appeal the paper uses probability flow models to provide a framework to generate forecasts and assess the determinants of share loss we develop models at two levels of complexity to give both simple robust forecasts and more detailed diagnostic analysis of the effect of marketing actions the models are calibrated prior to the new entrant s launch enabling preemptive marketing strategies to be put in place by the defending company the equilibrium level of consideration of the new entrant was driven by respondents strength of relationship with the defender and inertia while trial was more price based continued use of the defender depends on both service factors and price the rate at which share loss eventuates is negatively related to the defender s perceived responsiveness saving money being the only reason to switch and risk aversion prelaunch model forecasts validated six months after launch using both aggregate monthly sales data and detailed tracking surveys are shown to closely follow the actual evolution of the market the paper provides a closed form multistate model of the new entrant s diffusion a methodology for the prelaunch calibration of dynamic models in practice and insights into defensive strategies for existing companies facing new entrants

benefit estimates for landscape improvements sequential bayesian design and respondents rationality in a choice experiment a multi attribute stated preference approach is used to value low and high impact actions on four major landscape components addressed by the rural environment protection scheme in ireland several methodological issues are addressed the use of prior beliefs on the relative magnitudes of parameters standardized description of different levels of landscape improvements via image manipulation software adoption of efficiency increasing sequential experimental design and sensitivity of benefit estimates to inclusion of responses from irrational respondents results suggest that bayesian design updating delivers significant efficiency gains without loss in respondent efficiency and estimates are upward biased when irrational respondents are included

optimal design for multinomial choice experiments abstract the author derives d optimal designs for main effects multinomial choice experiments using attribute levels as design parameters the design solutions are similar to standard main effects designs except that one attribute is used to manipulate response probabilities the manipulator is key to implementing optimal designs in practice

hypothetical bias cheap talk and stated willingness to pay for health care subjects with rheumatoid arthritis ra enrolled in an online panel were asked to evaluate pairs of treatment alternatives with different attributes half of the sample saw a cheap talk text preference parameters were estimated using random parameters logit models to account for unobserved taste heterogeneity the models also were estimated in willingness to pay wtp space instead of conventional utility space cheap talk not only affected the coefficient on the cost attribute but also preferences for other attributes wtp estimates were generally lower in cheap talk sample except for the most important attribute and a 2 level attribute subjects who were presented with cheap talk discriminated between the adjoning attribute levels better than the subjects in the control sample

the effectiveness of alternative preference elicitation procedures in predicting choice in a large scale national study the authors evaluated the effectiveness of several preference elicitation techniques for predicting choices the criteria for accuracy included both individual hit

electoral information in developed stock market testing conditional heteroscedasticity in the market model this investigates the influence of major electoral information on abnormal returns around the announcement date in the developed stock market and examines whether these explanatory variables are associated with observed cumulative abnormal returns using a regression analysis the analytical results demonstrate that average abnormal returns are significantly negative before the date of the announcement of the results of a general election on days 6 and 3 and after that announcement date on days 4 6 and 10 this phenomenon can be attributed to hedging activity of the investors to reduce risk

discrete time volatility forecasting with persistent leverage effect and the link with continuous time volatility modeling we first propose a reduced form model in discrete time for s p 500 volatility showing that the forecasting performance can be significantly improved by introducing a persistent leverage effect with a long range dependence similar to that of volatility itself we also find a strongly significant positive impact of lagged jumps on volatility which however is absorbed more quickly we then estimate continuous time stochastic volatility models that are able to reproduce the statistical features captured by the discrete time model we show that a single factor model driven by a fractional brownian motion is unable to reproduce the volatility dynamics observed in the data while a multifactor markovian model fully replicates the persistence of both volatility and leverage effect the impact of jumps can be associated with a common jump component in price and volatility this article has online supplementary materials

the impact of utility balance and endogeneity in conjoint analysis adaptive metric utility balance is at the heart of one of the most widely used and studied methods for conjoint analysis we use formal models simulations and empirical data to suggest that adaptive metric utility balance leads to partworth estimates that are relatively biased smaller partworths are upwardly biased relative to larger partworths such relative biases could lead to erroneous managerial decisions metric utility balanced questions are also more likely to be inefficient and in one empirical example contrary to popular wisdom lead to response errors that are at least as large as nonadaptive orthogonal questions we demonstrate that this bias is because of endogeneity caused by a winner s curse shrinkage estimates do not mitigate these biases combined with adaptive metric utility balance shrinkage estimates of heterogeneous partworths are biased downward relative to homogeneous partworths although biases can affect managerial decisions our data suggest that empirically biases and inefficiencies are of the order of response errors we examine viable alternatives to metric utility balance that researchers can use without biases or inefficiencies to retain the desired properties of 1 individual level adaptation and 2 challenging questions

the impact of party alternative on the stock market the case of japan this paper tries to clarify whether change in political regime has an effect on the behaviour of the stock market in japan the empirical study finds that the transition of ruling party effect is not a crucial variable to the nikkei 225 the alienation felt by the japanese about the political environment resulting in a succession of prime ministers does not influence the nikkei 225 stock market behaviour therefore former prime ministers who have resigned have become scapegoats for the poor performance of financial and economic policies

least squares inference on integrated volatility and the relationship between efficient prices and noise the expected value of sums of squared intraday returns realized variance gives rise to a least squares regression which adapts itself to the assumptions of the noise process and allows for joint inference on integrated variance noise moments and price noise relations in the iid noise case we derive the asymptotic variance of the and noise variance estimators and show that they are consistent the joint estimation approach is particularly attractive as it reveals important characteristics of the noise process which can be related to liquidity and market efficiency the analysis of dependence between the price and noise processes provides an often missing link to market microstructure theory we find substantial differences in the noise characteristics of trade and quote data arising from the effect of distinct market microstructure frictions this article has supplementary material online

mds maps for product attributes and market response an application to scanner panel data there is theoretical and empirical evidence that consumers have limited cognitive resources and thus cannot maintain direct preferences for each choice alternative on the store shelves instead they likely form their overall preferences for choice alternatives by evaluating the attributes describing each item rather than mapping the locations of and preferences for all choice alternatives in a multidimensional space as is the current practice in marketing research it is insightful to map the locations of and preferences for the attributes consumers use to evaluate the choice alternatives the model proposed in this study unifies latent class preference models choice models or conjoint models with latent class multidimensional scaling mds analysis dimensional restrictions are imposed on latent class preference models such that the locations of attribute levels and market response parameters can be mapped in reduced dimensionspaces interactions between attributes can be graphically examined which is not feasible with the traditional mds approach also the effects of price reductions and promotions on the locations of attribute levels can be graphically exam ined an empirical application with scanner panel data shows the capabilities and limitations of the proposed model in addition to the managerial insights provided by the model it is also much more parsimonious than existing methods and it forecasts holdout choices significantly better in the empirical application a model with two dimensional attribute maps has 50 fewer parameters than the best unrestricted latent class choice model yet the fit is comparable the predictive performance of our model is shown to be superior to that of latent class mds approaches and latent class conjoint approaches

negotiations and exclusivity contracts for advertising exclusive advertising on a given media outlet is usually profitable for an advertiser because consumers are less aware of competing products however for such arrangements to exist media must benefit as well we examine conditions under which such exclusive advertising contracts benefit both advertisers and media outlets referred to as stations by illustrating that exclusive equilibria arise in a theoretical model of the media advertisers and consumers who participate in both the product and media markets in the model stations sell advertising space to advertisers and broadcast advertising messages to consumers conditions leading to higher equilibrium levels of advertising can be unprofitable for advertisers because high levels of advertising make consumers better informed and thus lead to fiercer product price competition as a result media stations may be less profitable as well because their payoff is determined as a fraction of the advertiser surplus generated in the product market stations mitigate this effect by offering advertisers exclusive advertising contracts with such contracts consumers are less informed about competing products yielding higher producer surplus it is profitable for stations to offer exclusivity when commercial advertising is an important means for advertisers to inform consumers about their products

the shape of advertising response functions revisited a model of dynamic probabilistic thresholds prior work in marketing has suggested that advertising threshold effects levels beneath which there is essentially no sales response are rarely encountered in practice because advertising policies settle into effective ranges through early trial and error thresholds cannot be observed directly and arguments for their existence must be based primarily on a statistical footprint that is on relative fits of a range of model types to detect possible threshold effects we formulate a switching regression model with two regimes in only one of which advertising is effective mediating the switch between the two regimes is a logistic function of category specific dynamic variables e g order of entry time in market number of competitors and advertising levels nesting a variety of alternative formulations among them both standard concave and s shaped responses a sequence of comparisons among parametrically related models strongly suggests that threshold effects exist that market share response to advertising is not necessarily globally concave that superior fit cannot be attributed to model flexibility alone and that dynamic environmental competitive and brand specific factors can influence advertising effectiveness these effects are evident in two evolving durables categories suvs and minivans although not in the one mature nondurable category liquid detergent studied

optimistic behavior when a decision bias is costly an experimental test the existence of optimism when biased decisions are costly is investigated experimentally subjects make an informed guess about an exogenously determined event the outside temperature a couple of days later payments in the control group depend only on how close the guess was to the realized temperature while payments in the treatment group also depend positively on realized temperature the data show the treatment group subjects to guess higher temperatures that is higher payments compared with the control group results thus indicate that there is optimism also when a decision bias is costly jel c91 d81 d84

using choice experiments to estimate consumer valuation the role of experimental design and attribute information loads with fixed dimensionality of choice experiments ces previous simulation results show that d optimal design with correct a priori information generates more accurate valuation in the absence of a priori information random designs and designs incorporate attribute interactions result in more precise valuation estimates in this article monte carlo simulations demonstrate that the performances of different design strategies are affected by attribute information loads in ces consumer valuation estimates in simulation settings vary with the number of attributes

is there an optimistic bias on betting markets bettors are subject to an optimistic bias when betting on the team they support this paper shows that this individual bias does not affect betting odds on british teams in association football soccer as it is often argued

tournament incentives and asset price bubbles evidence from a field experiment abstract in this note we show at the example of an experimental stock market conducted on the occasion of the world soccer championship 2010 in south africa how tournament incentives might contribute to the formation of asset price bubbles

heterogeneity of beliefs and trade in experimental asset markets we investigate the relationship between traders expectations and market outcomes with experimental asset market data the data show that those who have high price expectations buy more frequently and submit higher bids and those who hold low price expectations sell more frequently and submit lower bids traders who have more accurate expectations achieve greater earnings simulations using only belief data reproduce the pricing patterns observed in the market well indicating that the heterogeneity of expectations is a key to explaining market activity

using market prices to predict election results the 1993 ubc election stock market economists believe that markets are exceptionally efficient aggregators of information this research tests this theory by asking whether markets can successfully predict uncertain outcomes specifically the ubc election stock market ubc esm was created to see if market prices could be accurate predictors of the outcome of the 1993 canadian federal election this paper presents the results of this experiment in which over 250 traders from across canada and the united states participated investing over 30 000 the structure and workings of the market are explained in some detail and the performance of the market is reviewed the market predicted the popular vote shares of the major parties very well but did less well at predicting the split of seats between the liberal and conservative parties coauthors are murray frank vasu krishnamurthy and thomas w ross

practice prize paper category optimizer a dynamic assortment new product introduction mix optimization and demand planning system the purpose of this paper is to describe the implementation of a category management tool known as category optimizer at foster s wine estates americas for one of its brands the beringer california collection foster s was facing a common management problem harnessing its portfolio of beringer california collection wines to increase profitability improve its competitive position and defend against a disruptive new entrant in the u s wine market called yellow tail category optimizer combines the parsimony of an internal market structure with the advances that have been made in assortment planning in operations research assortment and stock keeping unit level modeling mixed logits and the marketing literature on the perceptions of variety of assortment to develop and estimate a model on readily available store scanner data the model subsequently uses these results to inform strategic and tactical decision making this approach led to recommendations that initially seemed counterintuitive the normal response would be for foster s to consider lowering prices to maintain share and volume a strategy not inconsistent with many of the recommendations of past models however considering the additional degrees of freedom that a product range offered for defense we demonstrated that a combination of price increases together with the introduction of a volume flanker product in a new channel would improve profits increase revenue and protect and enhance market share these were successfully implemented in early 2008 earning rich dividends for the company increasing profitability by 70 revenue by 3 and earnings before interest and taxes by 8 5 and having a positive impact on its brand ranking in fact in 2008 it debuted as sixth among the international wine brands it also managed to play an important role in deposing yellow tail the market share leader from its dominant position we conclude the paper by providing examples of other companies where this approach has also been successfully implemented and by discussing some avenues for future research

practice prize reports the practice prize reports consist of one article with two parts as follows sinha ashish j jeffrey inman yantao wang joonwook park attribute drivers a factor analytic choice map approach for understanding choices among skus and tellis gerard j rajesh k chandy deborah macinnis pattana thaivanich modeling the microeffects of television advertising which ad works when where for how long and why

suckers are born but markets are made individual rationality arbitrage and market efficiency on an electronic futures market the iowa electronic markets are specially designed futures markets that appear to aggregate information efficiently to predict events such as election outcomes yet in theory perfect information aggregation is impossible further the markets are populated by a nonrepresentative sample of mistake prone and biased traders that is traders are prone to the behavioral anomalies predicted by behavioral finance how can this be reconciled with market efficiency here we take a first step by analyzing the behavior of two self selected types of traders dramatic differences in mistake rates across traders can help us answer the question market making traders who set prices are less mistake prone and appear to be more rational than price taking traders this highlights an important feature of markets marginal in this case market making not average traders set prices this can drive the efficiency of market prices in spite of large numbers of traders who display patently suboptimal behavior

on the possibility of informative equilibria in futures markets with feedback we study the existence of equilibria and the information content of prices in futures markets where the probability of future payoffs can be altered by an intervening agent who acts in response to the market price hence creating a feedback effect we focus on the market with the simplest possible structure traders betting on the occurrence of a future event by buying or selling arrow debreu securities one dollar claims contingent on a binary outcome we find that in the presence of feedback i a rational expectations equilibrium may not exist ii the market price may decline in response to information that is ex ante more favorable to the occurrence of the underlying event iii an equilibrium that reveals no information may obtain thus feedback from an intervening agent materially alters the way in which price responds to information and potentially undermines the viability of the market itself

short selling constraints as cause for price distortions an experimental study in this paper we explore the influence of the possibility to short stocks and or borrow money in laboratory markets a key innovation of our study is that subjects can simultaneously trade two risky assets on two double auction markets allowing us to differentiate between assets with relatively high versus low capitalization divergence of opinions is created by providing each trader with noisy information on the intrinsic values of both assets we find that when borrowing money or shorting stocks is restricted prices are systematically distorted specifically stocks with high low capitalization are traded at lower higher prices than their fundamental value lifting the restrictions leads to more efficient prices and more liquidity thereby also lowering volatility and bid ask spreads

editorial does good marketing cause bad unemployment questionable methods for increasing nominal wages reduce real wages i e buying power by creating inflation shortages lower quality and long term unemployment to increase real wages i e the ability to buy more economic principles prescribe increasing productivity i e greater output from less input in contrast marketing principles prescribes increasing the value of output i e greater customer benefits through innovation beyond increasing real wages innovation spawns new occupations better matching individuals with skills and providing greater nonmonetary benefits i e job satisfaction unfortunately threatened entrenched incumbents often solicit protectionist legislation claiming negative externalities e g short term unemployment lower wages and burdens on society innovation does require labor to move from inferior to superior organizations i e unemployment however protectionism only delays and dramatically aggravates the inevitable trauma associated with progress as worker skills firm practices and buyer welfare fall further behind recent attacks demonizing wal mart e g the dubious vlasic pickle claim epitomize this situation they are archaic vanilla protectionism menacing both imperiled consumers and every consumer driven business

econometrics and presidential elections this paper discusses an econometric equation that explains votes for president as a function of economic events and incumbency information the history of the equation is reviewed the update after the 1992 election is discussed and a prediction for the 1996 election is made conditional on an economic forecast

estimating willingness to pay do health and environmental researchers have different methodological standards health and environmental economists have been employing stated preference sp methods such as conjoint analysis or contingent valuation to estimate the monetary value of public health interventions and environmental goods and services however the quality of data and the validity of results are sensitive to a number of decisions researchers make the aim of this study is to compare the degree of the current consensus among active researchers in the rapidly evolving area of sp methods in health and environmental valuation we surveyed researchers who have published manuscripts on sp methods in the last 10 years researchers were presented with hypothetical sp studies with different attributes they were first asked which study they would recommend to use to inform policy decisions and then asked which study has better quality our results show that good practice sp methods vary among study features and among researchers with different amounts and kinds of research experience although health researchers

optimal experimental design for double bounded dichotomous choice contingent valuation the double bounded dichotomous choice model is becoming popular in the contingent valuation literature this technique considers the responses to two bids the second one being determined according to the response to the first and it has been shown to be statistically more efficient than the standard single bounded model in this paper the issue of the optimal choice of bid values for the double bounded logit model is addressed these designs are derived to satisfy the d optimal c optimal and fiducial method criteria

designing conjoint choice experiments using managers prior beliefs abstract the authors provide more efficient designs for conjoint choice experiments based on prior information elicited from managers about the parameters and their associated uncertainty the authors use a bayesian design procedure that assumes a prior distribution of likely parameter values and optimizes the design over that distribution the authors propose a way to elicit prior information from managers and show in monte carlo studies that the procedure provides more efficient designs than the current procedures the authors provide an empirical application in which they elicit prior information on the parameter values and the associated uncertainty from managers here the bayesian design provides 30 50 lower standard errors of the estimates and an expected predictive validity that is approximately 20 higher

optimal designs for discrete choice contingent valuation surveys single bound double bound and bivariate models this paper finds the designs for discrete choice contingent valuation surveys which maximize the precision of a statistic of interest about the public s willingness to pay wtp for a change in the environmental quality such as median wtp an optimization problem is set up in which the efficiency of the estimate of median wtp or a related concept is the objective function to optimize with respect to the survey design i e the set of bids offered to the respondents in deriving the optimal designs we consider alternative econometric models such as the basic single bound model that uses the responses to the first payment question the traditional interval data or double bound model for surveys with a follow up payment question and the recently proposed bivariate binary response model simulations are carried out to compare the alternative design principles and assess their performances with respect to the statistic of primary interest median wtp and other welfare measures such as mean wtp other designs that are constructed ad hoc are also examined

dynamic models incorporating individual heterogeneity utility evolution in conjoint analysis it has been shown in the behavioral decision making marketing research and psychometric literature that the structure underlying preferences can change during the administration of repeated measurements e g conjoint analysis and data collection because of effects from learning fatigue boredom and so on in this research note we propose a new class of hierarchical dynamic bayesian models for capturing such dynamic effects in conjoint applications which extend the standard hierarchical bayesian random effects and existing dynamic bayesian models by allowing for individual level heterogeneity around an aggregate dynamic trend using simulated conjoint data we explore the performance of these new dynamic models incorporating individual level heterogeneity across a number of possible types of dynamic effects and demonstrate the derived benefits versus static models in addition we introduce the idea of an unbiased dynamic estimate and demonstrate that using a counterbalanced design is important from an estimation perspective when parameter dynamics are present

evaluating impacts from noxious facilities including public preferences in current siting mechanisms abstract this paper describes an approach to facility siting that ranks potential sites in terms of their social impacts a contingent choice survey based on paired comparisons is used to construct a utility index to rank sites consistent with predicting results of a hypothetical referendum based on the attributes of the sites the method is likely to be acceptable to public decision makers since it is analogous to site scoring methods that have been commonly used indeed our approach is currently being employed as part of a larger landfill site selection process in the state of rhode island

internet based virtual stock markets for business forecasting the application of internet based virtual stock markets vsms is an additional approach that can be used to predict short and medium term market developments the basic concept involves bringing a group of participants together via the internet and allowing them to trade shares of virtual stocks these stocks represent a bet on the outcome of future market situations and their value depends on the realization of these market situations in this process a vsm elicits and aggregates the assessments of its participants concerning future market developments the aim of this article is to evaluate the potential use and the different design possibilities as well as the forecast accuracy and performance of vsms compared to expert predictions for their application to business forecasting after introducing the basic idea of using vsms for business forecasting we discuss the different design possibilities for such vsms in three real world applications we analyze the feasibility and forecast accuracy of vsms compare the performance of vsms to expert predictions and propose a new validity test for vsm forecasts finally we draw conclusions and provide suggestions for future research

properties of realized variance under alternative sampling schemes this article investigates the statistical properties of the realized variance estimator in the presence of market microstructure noise different from the existing literature the analysis relies on a pure jump process for high frequency security prices and explicitly distinguishes among alternative sampling schemes including calendar time sampling business time sampling and transaction time sampling the main finding in this article is that transaction time sampling is generally superior to the common practice of calendar time sampling in that it leads to a lower mean squared error mse of the realized variance the benefits of sampling in transaction time are particularly pronounced when the trade intensity pattern is volatile based on ibm transaction data over the period 2000 2004 the empirical analysis finds an average optimal sampling frequency of about 3 minutes with a steady downward trend and significant day to day variation related to market liquidity and a consistent reduction in mse of th

monetary valuation of insurance against flood risk under climate change climate change is projected to increase the risk of natural disasters such as floods and storms in certain regions this is likely to raise the demand for natural disaster insurance we present a stated preference survey using choice modeling with mixed logit estimation methods in order to examine the effects of climate change and the availability of government compensation on the demand for flood insurance by dutch homeowners currently no private insurance against flood damage is offered in the netherlands the results indicate that there are opportunities for the development of a flood insurance market 2012 by the economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

how dynamic consumer response competitor response company support and company inertia shape long term marketing effectiveness long term marketing effectiveness is a high priority research topic for managers and emerges from the complex interplay among dynamic reactions of several market players this paper introduces restricted policy simulations to distinguish four dynamic forces consumer response competitor response company inertia and company support a rich marketing dataset allows the analysis of price display feature advertising and product line extensions the first finding is that consumer response differs significantly from the net effectiveness of product line extensions price feature and advertising in particular net sales effects are up to five times stronger and longer lasting than consumer response second this difference is not due to competitor response but to company action for tactical actions price and feature it takes the form of inertia as promotions last for several weeks for strategic actions advertising and product line extensions support by other marketing instruments greatly enhances dynamic consumer response this company action negates the postpromotion dip in consumer response and enhances the long term sales benefits of product line extensions feature and advertising therefore managers are urged to evaluate company decision rules for inertia and support when assessing long term marketing effectiveness

information in stock prices the case of the 2016 u s presidential election on the day before the 2016 u s presidential election the odds of hillary clinton winning the presidency according to political prediction markets were above 90 surprisingly donald trump won

research note on managerially efficient experimental designs in most marketing experiments managerial decisions are not based directly on the estimates of the parameters but rather on functions of these estimates for example many managerial decisions are driven by whether or not a feature is valued more than the price the consumer will be asked to pay in other cases some managerial decisions are weighed more heavily than others the standard measures used to evaluate experimental designs e g a efficiency or d efficiency do not accommodate these phenomena we propose alternative managerial efficiency criteria m errors that are relatively easy to implement we explore their properties suggest practical algorithms to decrease errors and provide illustrative examples realistic examples suggest improvements of as much as 30 in managerial efficiency we close by considering approximations for nonlinear criteria and extensions to choice based experiments

wishes expectations and actions a survey on price formation in election stock markets abstract with error prone and biased individual traders can markets aggregate trader information and produce efficient outcomes we review election stock market evidence that suggests this does happen individual traders appear biased and error prone consistently yet these markets prove quite efficient in predicting election outcomes we also review work which documents comparable but substantially different phenomena in related laboratory markets in addition we report the results from a new laboratory session which shows how we can create particular biases that mirror those in election stock markets finally we discuss how combined laboratory and field experiments can help us understand trader market interactions

preferences for public lands management under competing uses the case of yellowstone national park we examine snowmobile use conflict in yellowstone national park to assess the effect of different winter management policies on heterogeneous visitors welfare using a stated preference choice experiment we quantify welfare changes for snowmobile riders and non riders under different snowmobile restrictions a key determinant of welfare change is visitors willingness to trade off reduced snowmobile access for improved ambient conditions in the park our findings support the notion that welfare losses to snowmobile riders could be offset by welfare gains to non riders but net benefits will depend on the number of riders and non riders and the specifics of the policy

in accuracy of a european political stock market the influence of common value structures this paper presents the results of a political stock market in the netherlands pam94 the exchange covered three consecutive elections allowing trade on five different markets the predictions at pam94 appear to be less accurate than those of previous markets of comparable size of the possible explanations that we examine one in particular survives closer scrutiny it concerns a type of judgement failure related to the winner s curse in common value auctions theoretical as well as empirical support is offered apart from qualifying the attractiveness of such markets as an alternative for opinion polls this explanation may also be relevant for the analysis of other asset markets moreover this judgement failure may be more important for european political stock markets than for the u s because the structure of the common values vote shares at multiparty elections make them especially vulnerable to it

the influence of individuals in forming collective household preferences for water quality preference for water quality and its nonmarket valuation can be used to inform the development of pricing policies and long term supply strategies tap water quality is a household concern the objective status quo of water provision varies between households and not between individuals within households while charges are levied on households not individuals individual preferences differ from collective preferences in households where there are two adults we examine the preferences of each separately and then as a couple in collective decisions we show the level of influence each has in developing the collective decision process we use discrete choice experiments to model preference heterogeneity across three experiments on women men and on both we propose a random utility model which decomposes the error structure in the utility of alternatives so as to identify the individual influence in collective decisions this approach to choice data analysis is new to environmental economics

decomposing the sales promotion bump with store data sales promotions generate substantial short term sales increases to determine whether the sales promotion bump is truly beneficial from a managerial perspective we propose a system of store level regression models that decomposes the sales promotion bump into three parts cross brand effects secondary demand cross period effects primary demand borrowed from other time periods and category expansion effects remaining primary demand across four store level scanner datasets we find that each of these three parts contribute about one third on average one extension we propose is the separation of the category expansion effect into cross store and market expansion effects another one is to split the cross item effect total across all other items into cannibalization and between brand effects we also allow for a flexible decomposition by allowing all effects to depend on the feature display support condition and on the magnitude of the price discount the latter dependence is achieved by local polynomial regression we find that feature supported price discounts are strongly associated with cross period effects while display only supported price discounts have especially strong category expansion effects while the role of the category expansion effect tends to increase with higher price discounts the roles of cross brand and cross period effects both tend to decrease

practice prize winner a nested logit model of product and transaction type choice for planning automakers pricing and promotions we develop a consumer response model to evaluate and plan pricing and promotions in durable good markets we discuss its implementation in the u s automotive industry which spends about 45 billion each year in price promotions the approach is based on a random effects multinomial nested logit model of product e g a vehicle model such as hyundai tucson and transaction type choice transaction types include combinations of acquisition types e g purchase versus lease and pricing instruments cash rebates reduced apr financing lease payment discounts we estimate the model using hierarchical bayes methods to capture response heterogeneity at the local market level we find key characteristics unique to durable good markets first consumers are heterogeneous in both their brand and transaction type preferences second consumers differ in their overall price sensitivity as well as in their relative sensitivity to alternative pricing instruments e g cash discounts reduced monthly payments third the most effective pricing programs tend to be those in which automakers offer consumers a menu of options to choose from e g a choice among a cash discount reduced interest rate financing or a lease payment discount we illustrate the model through an empirical application to a sample of data drawn from j d power transaction records in the entry suv segment and discuss examples of actual implementations

supplier choice and wtp for electricity attributes in an emerging market the role of perceived past experience environmental concern and energy saving behavior abstract this study analyzes customers preferences and their willingness to pay wtp for certain service attributes in an electricity supplier choice context specifically a stated preference choice experiment is conducted in the canary islands residential market where limited competition exists preferences for different electricity suppliers and three level of service attributes are investigated namely supply reliability share of renewable energies and availability of a complementary energy audit service the results might be interpreted as an indication of different aspects new firms need to consider if they plan to enter in the market there is an opportunity for new companies to establish in the market though evidence of brand loyalty to the current company and or significant switching costs are also found especially in the case of older people regarding the estimated wtp several results should be highlighted first customers who have experienced more serious outages in the past tend to show a higher wtp to reduce the outage frequency second highly educated respondents those who state a great concern for the greenhouse gases ghg emissions and those who carry out energy saving actions in their homes exhibit a larger wtp for renewable energies this empirical evidence provides useful information for authorities responsible for energy policy design

commercial use of upc scanner data industry and academic perspectives the authors report the findings from an exploratory investigation of the use of upc scanner data in the consumer packaged goods industry in the u s the study examines the practitioner community s view of the use of scanner data and compares these views with academic research forty one executives from ten data suppliers packaged goods manufacturers and consulting firms participated in wide ranging in person interviews conducted by the authors the interviews sought to uncover key questions practitioners would like to answer with scanner data how scanner data is applied to these questions and the industry s perspective regarding the success that the use of scanner data has had in each area the authors then compare and contrast practitioners views regarding the resolution of each issue with academic research this produces a 2 2 classification of each question as resolved or unresolved from the perspectives of industry and academia along the diagonal of the 2 2 issues viewed as unresolved by both groups are important topics for future research issues deemed resolved by both groups are correspondingly of lower priority in the off diagonal cells industry and academics disagree these topics should be given priority for discussion information exchange and possible further research practitioners reported that scanner data analysis has had the most success and been most widely adopted for decision making in consumer promotions i e coupons trade promotions and pricing for example logit and regression models applied to scanner data have revealed very low average consumer response to coupons which has directly led to reduced couponing activity managers also reported high levels of comfort with and impact from analyses of trade promotions and price elasticities while industry views most of the issues in these areas to be resolved academic research raises concerns about a number of practices in common commercial use these include price threshold analysis and trade promotion evaluation using baseline and incremental sales in product strategy advertising and distribution management practitioners reported that the use of scanner data has had more limited development success and impact in the case of new product decisions scanner data use has been slow to develop due to the inherent limitations of historicaldata for these decisions and a heavy reliance on traditional primary research methods in advertising scanner data is widely analyzed with models but confusion among practitioners is very high due to controversies about methods e g what level of data aggregation is best and conflicting results in distribution and retail management scanner data use has tremendous potential but a mixed track record to date thus practitioners view the use of scanner data as unresolved for most issues in product strategy advertising and distribution this view is largely though not entirely consistent with academic research which has only begun to address many of the key questions raised by practitioners in light of the large number of unresolved issues and mixed record of scanner data use to date the authors offer aseries of specific recommendations for immediate and long term research priorities that are likely to have the greatest impact on commercial utilization of upc scanner data topics of immediate priority include price thresholds and gaps baseline and incremental sales base price elasticity competitive reactions measurement of advertising effects management of brand equity rationalization of product assortments and category management long term priorities include a greater emphasis on profitability versus sales or market share developing prescriptive models versus descriptive models and the need for industry standards

realized volatility forecasting in the presence of time varying noise observed high frequency financial prices can be considered as having two components a true price and a market microstructure noise perturbation it is an empirical regularity coherent with classical market microstructure theories of price determination that the second moment of market microstructure noise is time varying we study the optimal from a finite sample forecast mean squared error mse standpoint frequency selection for realized variance in linear variance forecasting models with time varying market microstructure noise we show that the resulting sampling frequencies are generally considerably lower than those that would be optimally chosen when time variation in the second moment of the noise is unaccounted for these optimal lower frequencies have the potential to translate into considerable out of sample mse gains when forecasting using high frequency variance estimates we recommend treating the relevant frequency as a parameter and evaluating it jointly with the parameters of the f

willingness to pay estimation with choice based conjoint analysis addressing extreme response behavior with individually adapted designs the increasing consideration of behavioral aspects in operations management models has prompted greater use of choice based conjoint cbc studies in operations research such studies can elicit consumers willingness to pay wtp a core input for many optimization models however optimization models can yield valid results only if consumers wtp is estimated accurately a simulation study and two field studies show that extreme response behavior in cbc studies such that consumers always or never choose the no purchase option harms the validity of wtp estimates reporting the share of consumers who always and never select the no purchase option allows for detecting extreme response behavior this study suggests an individually adapted design that avoids extreme response behavior and thus significantly improves wtp estimation accuracy

market research and innovation strategy in a duopoly we model a duopoly in which ex ante identical firms must decide where to direct their innovation efforts the firms face market uncertainty about consumers preferences for innovation on two product attributes and technology uncertainty about the success of their research and development r d investments firms can conduct costly market research before setting r d strategy we find that the value of market information to a firm depends on whether its rival is expected to obtain this information in equilibrium consequently one firm may forgo market research even though its rival conducts such research and learns the true state of demand we examine both vertical and horizontal demand structures with vertical preferences firms are a priori uncertain about which attribute all consumers will value more in this case a firm that conducts market research always attempts innovation on the attribute it discovers that consumers prefer and expends more on r d than a rival that has not conducted market research with horizontal preferences distinct segments exist each caring about innovation on only one attribute and firms are a priori uncertain how many consumers each segment contains in this case a firm that conducts market research may follow a niche strategy and attempt innovation to serve the smaller segment to avoid intense price competition for the larger segment a firm that conducts market research may therefore invest less in r d and earn lower postlaunch profits than a rival that has forgone such research

elections and political risk new evidence from the 2008 taiwanese presidential election abstract we examine the effects of party platforms on the economic opportunities of firms using a unique data set from a political prediction market in taiwan a country with two dominant parties whose political cleavage derives mainly from a single issue the one china principle we find that during the 2008 presidential campaign the share price of taiwanese firms with investments in the mainland responded strongly and positively to a positive electoral outlook for the kmt the party which advocates lifting caps on cross strait investment in mainland china the response is strongest for those firms who have already hit their caps

changes in the global oil market changes in the parameters of a recursively identified oil market model are examined through an iterative algorithm that tests for possible breaks in coefficients and variances the analysis detects breaks in the coefficients of the oil production and price equations together with volatility shifts in all three equations of the model coefficient changes imply an enhanced response of production to aggregate demand shocks after 1980 and that the price response to supply shocks is more persistent from the mid 1990s all variables evidence changes in the relative contributions of individual shocks to their forecast error variances with coefficient and volatility breaks in the first half of the 1990s being particularly important in this respect the results show that analysts of this market should eschew constant parameter models estimated over an extended period

incentives for subjects in internet experiments abstract providing incentives to subjects in internet experiments can be tricky one simple method is a high score as in computer games we test whether high scores provide adequate incentives in comparison to the usual performance based incentives we find significant differences

prediction markets in the laboratory prediction markets are becoming an ever more popular method for aggregating disparate information companies use prediction markets to forecast sales release dates and other internal activities recently several well known economists have argued that government ought to eliminate impediments to unleashing the power of prediction markets broadly this survey paper looks at the laboratory experiments which provide part of the scientific justification for using prediction markets these systems work because people who have private knowledge can use this insider information in the market but doing so causes the price to reflect these data starting with early experiments that show markets can under certain circumstances aggregate information we discuss the robustness of prediction markets to various design features we also discuss places where performance does not match rhetoric and briefly look at experimental comparisons of alternative information aggregating institutions another issue consistently raised regarding the implementation of prediction markets is the degree to which traders can manipulate prices and thus the information gleaned by following a series of experiments on manipulation we present the circumstances that are and are not sufficient for manipulation attempts to be successful finally we offer suggestions on where we believe future experiments are needed in this area

markets as information gathering tools the academic literature wall street commentary and even daily news reporting reflect a belief that markets can anticipate events the current movements in the stock market are interpreted as reflecting the likelihood that the federal reserve system will change interest rates futures markets are interpreted as reflecting the best estimates of things to come movements in individual stock prices are thought to anticipate earnings reports or the probability of a merger or buyout if we want to know about future weather in the south we should study the orange juice futures the academic journals are filled with the concept of rational expectations in which current prices are supposed to reflect the sum of all knowledge in the system prices according to this theory are a statistic that indicates the aggregation of information about underlying states of the economy those who are outsiders to the information in the system become insiders by simply observing the economic activity

information and efficiency in political stock markets using computerized markets to predict election results this study concentrates on four computerized political markets in germany between 1990 and 1998 while this new method for the prediction of election events worked quite well in the usa it did not perform as well in germany searching for the causes of this distinction it is shown that in contrast to the findings of forsythe et al 1992 i extraordinary profits were achieved less by people who took advantage of other people s anomalies than by those people who acquired an advantage from the existence of asymmetric information ii the marginal trader hypothesis does not hold when applied to german markets and that iii traders relied on public opinion polls it is argued that these distinctions are caused by the differences in the german and the us voting systems additionally it is shown that to a certain extent iv election markets were able to predict the contemporary mood of the electorate without the help of public opinion polls v first of all the informed traders used public opinion pol