ungarbled earnings and dividends an analysis and extension of the beaver lambert and morse valuation model abstract this paper examines the beaver lambert and morse 1980 valuation model that capitalizes ungarbled earnings the analysis identifies the model s unspecified capitalization factor and it emphasizes that a complete model of ungarbled earnings must focus on the joint stochastic behavior of earnings and dividends it is shown that expected ungarbled earnings scaled for a constant equal expected dividends except for the scale factor no apparent economic reasons suggest that ungarbled earnings are any different from dividends

time varying stock price response to earnings induced by uncertainty about the time series process of earnings in this paper i examine how changes in the level of uncertainty about the time series process of earnings affect the magnitude of the stock price response to earnings announcements the basic premise is that when there is more uncertainty about the time series parameters of earnings a given level of unexpected earnings can have a larger effect on stock price because it is weighted more heavily by investors in determining the value of the firm tests are based on a simple model in which price is a function of expected future earnings which follow a random walk with drift time

the carnegie conjecture some empirical evidence this paper examines tax return generated data on the labor force behavior of people before and after they receive inheritances the results are consistent with andrew carnegie s century old assertion that large inheritances decrease a person s labor force participation for example a single person who receives an inheritance of about 150 000 is roughly four times more likely to leave the labor force than a person with an inheritance below 25 000 additional albeit weaker evidence suggests that large inheritances depress labor supply even when participation is unaltered warren kendall heir to an insurance company fortune says he s worth about 5 million and has an income of about oh 300 and some thousand a year h e has never held a job or wanted to going down to sea in cruise ships is his full time pursuit he estimates that he has taken about 250 cruises over the past couple of decades spending at least 50 percent to 70 percent of the year afloat morgenthaler 1991 p al

incentive effects of the u s welfare system a review the author would like to acknowledge support for prior work on this topic from the u s department of health and human services and helpful comments from three anonymous referees rebecca blank howard chernick john fitzgerald irwin garfinkel peter gottschalk edward gramlich david greenberg judith gueron james heckman v joseph hotz robert hutchens michael keane frank levy larry mead michael murray robert plotnick anuradha rangarajan philip robins howard rolston jeffrey smith and daniel weinberg all opinions and errors are those of the author alone

using elasticities to derive optimal income tax rates this paper derives optimal income tax formulas using compensated and uncompensated elasticities of earnings with respect to tax rates a simple formula for the high income optimal tax rate is obtained as a function of these elasticities and the thickness of the top tail of the income distribution in the general non linear income tax problem this method using elasticities shows precisely how the different economic effects come into play and which are the key relevant parameters in the optimal income tax formulas of mirrlees the optimal non linear tax rate formulas are expressed in terms of elasticities and the shape of the income distribution these formulas are implemented numerically using empirical earning distributions and a range of realistic elasticity parameters

micro and macro elasticities in a life cycle model with taxes we build a life cycle model of labor supply that incorporates changes along both the intensive and extensive margin and use it to assess the consequences of changes in tax and transfer policies on equilibrium hours of work we find that changes in taxes have large aggregate effects on hours of work moreover we find that there is no inconsistency between this result and the empirical finding of small labor elasticities for prime age workers in our model micro and macro elasticities are effectively unrelated our model is also consistent with other cross country patterns

informal insurance arrangements with limited commitment theory and evidence from village economies recent work on consumption allocations in village economies finds that idiosyncratic variation in consumption is systematically related to idiosyncratic variation in income thus rejecting the hypothesis of full risk pooling we attempt to explain these observations by adding limited commitment as an impediment to risk pooling we provide a general dynamic model and completely characterise efficient informal insurance arrangements constrained by limited commitment and test the model using data from three indian villages we find that the model can fully explain the dynamic response of consumption to income but that it fails to explain the distribution of consumption across households

accounting measurement price earnings ratio and the information content of security prices a number of papers for example beaver lambert and morse 1980 beaver lambert and ryan 1987 collins kothari and rayburn 1987 and freeman 1987 have documented that stock prices lead accounting earnings these investigations have led to the conclusions that prices provide information about earnings ahead of time and that earnings capture events that affect security prices with a lag the study of p e ratios has supported those conclusions and also produced additional insights beaver and morse 1978 have shown that pie ratios not only predict future earnings changes but they also identify transitory aspects of current earnings investors utilize other information in setting prices which provides both a prediction of future earnings and an indication of whether current earnings are representative of future earnings thus a comparison of price to earnings in a p e calculation can indicate the extent to which current earnings are transitory 1 in this paper we show that information in prices that leads future earnings is contained in financial statements while accrual accounting

the retirement consumption puzzle a marital bargaining approach abstract evidence from several countries reveals a substantial drop in household consumption around the age of retirement that is difficult to explain with life cycle models using food consumption data from more than 550 households from the panel study of income dynamics for the years 1979 1986 and 1989 1992 we find that married couple households decrease their expenditures on both food consumed at home and away from home by about 9 following the retirement of the male household head no significant decrease in consumption is found for single households either in a sample of males or a pooled sample of single males and females these results are consistent with a model of marital bargaining in which wives prefer to save more than their husbands do to support an expected longer retirement period and relative control over household decisions is affected by control over market income the pattern of the consumption decline which is increasing in the age gap between husband and wife lends further support to this interpretation

bargaining and distribution in marriage the standard economic model of the family is a common preference model that assumes that a family maximizes a single utility function and implies that family behavior is independent of which individuals receive income or control resources in recent years this model has been challenged by game theoretic models of marriage that do not impose pooling and are therefore consistent with empirical evidence that income controlled by husbands and wives does have different effects on family behavior in this paper the authors review a number of simple bargaining models and relevant empirical evidence and discuss their implications for distribution within marriage

share issue privatizations as financial means to political and economic ends abstract this study examines how political and economic factors affect the offer price share allocation and other terms governments choose when they privatize state owned enterprises via a public share offering using a 59 country sample of 630 share issue privatizations sips with total proceeds of over 446 billion during the period 1977 1997 we find that governments consistently underprice sip offers tilt their share allocation patterns to favour domestic investors impose control restrictions on privatized firms and typically use fixed price offers rather than book building or competitive tender offers all to further political and economic policy objectives

do husbands and wives pool their resources evidence from the united kingdom child benefit common preference models of family behavior imply income pooling a restriction on family demand functions such that only the sum of husband s income and wife s income affects the allocation of goods and time testing the pooling hypothesis is difficult because most family income sources are not exogenous to the allocations being analyzed in this paper we present an alternative test based on a natural experiment a policy change in the united kingdom that transferred a substantial child allowance to wives in the late 1970s using family expenditure survey data we find strong evidence that a shift toward greater expenditures on women s clothing and children s clothing relative to men s clothing coincided with this income redistribution

changes in the labor supply behavior of married women 1980 2000 using march current population survey data we investigate married women s labor supply from 1980 to 2000 we find a large rightward shift in their labor supply function for annual hours in the 1980s with little shift in the 1990s these shifts account for most of the slowdown in the growth of labor supply during this period a major development was the dramatic decrease in the responsiveness of married women s labor supply to their own and husbands wages their own wage elasticity fell by 50 56 while their cross wage elasticity fell by 38 47 in absolute value

inheritance and labor supply using data from the michigan panel study of income dynamics and from federal estate tax returns this paper investigates the labor disincentive caused by inheritance the results are of interest for several reasons whether or not inheritances are a strong labor disincentive figures prominently in the controversy surrounding the relative importance of inheritances and life cycle savings as sources of u s wealth also the size of the disincentive is important in determining the relationship between inheritance and inequality our results indicate that inheritances do not lead to large reductions in the labor supply of men and married women family consumption increases after an inheritance but again the effect is small

the effect of wealth on individual and household labor supply evidence from swedish lotteries abstract we study the effect of wealth on labor supply using the randomized assignment of monetary prizes in a large sample of swedish lottery players winning a lottery prize modestly reduces earnings with the reduction being immediate persistent and quite similar by age education and sex a calibrated dynamic model implies lifetime marginal propensities to earn out of unearned income from 0 17 at age 20 to 0 04 at age 60 and labor supply elasticities in the lower range of previously reported estimates the earnings response is stronger for winners than their spouses which is inconsistent with unitary household labor supply models jel d14 j22 j31

time use patterns and women entrepreneurs the twentieth century saw a dramatic increase in the number of women in the labor force as well as a steady increase in the number of selfemployed women during the past three decades this increase in labor force participation represents a striking change in the allocation of women s time between work and home activities despite the growing literature examining self employed women little is known about how self employed women divide their time between work and other life activities the flexibility afforded by self employment is often regarded as a way to better balance work and home activities indeed the existing econometric studies indicate that women choose self employment primarily because of family or lifestyle factors theresa devine 1994 richard k caputa and arthur dolinsky 1998 richard j boden 1999 greg hundley 2000 yet studies outside the economics literature seem to indicate that self employed women do not necessarily experience more family satisfaction holly e buttner and dorothy p moore 1997 saroj parasuraman and claire a simmers 2001 richard demartino robert barbato and paul h jacques 2006 a source of the difference might be that the econometric studies use human capital acquisition and entrepreneurship

labor supply and taxes a survey i survey the male and female labor supply literatures focusing on implications for effects of wages and taxes for males i describe and contrast results from three basic types of model static models especially those that account for nonlinear taxes life cycle models with savings and life cycle models with both savings and human capital for women more important distinctions are whether models include fixed costs of work and whether they treat demographics like fertility and marriage and human capital as exogenous or endogenous the literature is characterized by considerable controversy over the responsiveness of labor supply to changes in wages and taxes at least for males it is fair to say that most economists believe labor supply elasticities are small but a sizeable minority of studies that i examine obtain large values hence there is no clear consensus on this point in fact a simple average of hicks elasticities across all the studies i examine is 0 30 several simulation studies have shown that such a value is large enough to generate large welfare costs of income taxation for males i conclude that two factors drive many of the differences in results across studies one factor is use of direct vs ratio wage measures with studies that use the former tending to find larger elasticties another factor is the failure of most studies to account for human capital returns to work experience i argue that this may lead to downward bias in elasticity estimates in a model that includes human capital i show how even modest elasticities as conventionally measured can be consistent with large welfare costs of taxation

the effect of social security on labor supply a cohort analysis of the notch generation this article uses aggregate birth year calendar year level data derived from the current population survey cps to estimate the effect of social security wealth on the labor supply of older men in the 1970s and 1980s the analysis focuses on measuring the impact of the 1977 amendments to the social security act which created a substantial unanticipated reduction in social security wealth for individuals born after 1916 this differential in benefits has become known as the benefit notch results indicate that labor supply continued to decline for the notch babies who received lower social security benefits than earlier cohorts

lucky in life unlucky in love the effect of random income shocks on marriage and divorce abstract economists have long been interested in the extent to which economic resources affect decisions to marry and divorce however this issue has been difficult to address empirically due to a lack of exogenous income shocks we overcome this problem by exploiting the randomness of the florida lottery and comparing recipients of large prizes to those of small prizes results indicate that while positive income shocks of 25 000 to 50 000 do not cause statistically significant or economically meaningful changes in divorce rates single women are less likely to marry as a result of the additional income

noncooperative bargaining models of marriage in this paper we discuss some simple noncooperative models of distribution within marriage in which the equilibria are not necessarily pareto optimal in which history and culture can affect which equilibrium is realized and in which distribution may depend on whether resources are controlled by the husband or by the wife recent moves away from single decision maker models of the family have permitted economists to address distribution within marriage and cooperative bargaining models have played the central role in these moves the next step is to permit strategic interaction between family members by modeling distribution within marriage as a noncooperative game noncooperative game theory allows great flexibility in specifying the rules of the game and unlike cooperative game theory imposes few a priori restrictions on the nature of equilibrium outcomes in particular noncooperative models neither assume nor imply that all equilibria are pareto optimal

the elasticity of taxable income with respect to marginal tax rates a critical review this paper critically surveys the large and growing literature estimating the elasticity of taxable income with respect to marginal tax rates using tax return data first we provide a theoretical framework showing under what assumptions this elasticity can be used as a sufficient statistic for efficiency and optimal tax analysis we discuss what other parameters should be estimated when the elasticity is not a sufficient statistic second we discuss conceptually the key issues that arise in the empirical estimation of the elasticity of taxable income using the example of the 1993 top individual income tax rate increase in the united states to illustrate those issues third we provide a critical discussion of selected empirical analyses of the elasticity of taxable income in light of the theoretical and empirical framework we laid out finally we discuss avenues for future research jel h24 h31 j22

firm size and the information content of prices with respect to earnings abstract beaver lambert and morse 1980 suggest that prices may be useful in forecasting future earnings we explore the information content of prices with respect to earnings by focusing on firm size and its relation to the predictive accuracy of price based earnings forecasts firm size proxies for the amount of information and for the number of traders and professional analysts processing the available information about an enterprise our empirical results are consistent with the hypothesis that price based earnings will outperform univariate time series forecasts by a greater margin for larger firms than for smaller firms

estimating intertemporal labour supply elasticities using structural model in this paper the author proposes empirical models where both the intertemporal substitution elasticity and the elasticities measuring the impact of different wage profiles are estimated taking into account the restrictions derived from utility maximization she considers models assuming a stone geary utility function and also a constant elasticity of substitution across periods function the data used are a sample of men from the michigan panel of income dynamics her estimates support the low intertemporal substitution elasticity found in previous studies the estimates for the uncompensated elasticities are also small copyright 1989 by royal economic society

the marginal propensity to earn and consume out of unearned income evidence using an unusually large cash grant reform in this paper we use the rapid introduction of an unconditional cash grant child support in south africa to estimate the marginal propensity to consume and earn out of unearned income we find that the marginal propensity to earn is about 0 3 and that the marginal propensity to consume is about 0 7 nothing of the grant appears to be saved if anything households dissave against future grant payments the marginal propensities estimated here are similar to those reported in comparable papers using us data however they stand in contrast to some results on conditional cash transfers in other developing countries

wealth health and child development evidence from administrative data on swedish lottery players we use administrative data on swedish lottery players to estimate the causal impact of substantial wealth shocks on players own health and their children s health and developmental outcomes our estimation sample is large virtually free of attrition and allows us to control for the factors conditional on which the prizes were randomly assigned in adults we find no evidence that wealth impacts mortality or health care utilization with the possible exception of a small reduction in the consumption of mental health drugs our estimates allow us to rule out effects on 10 year mortality one sixth as large as the crosssectional wealth mortality gradient in our intergenerational analyses we find that wealth increases children s health care utilization in the years following the lottery and may also reduce obesity risk the effects on most other child outcomes including drug consumption scholastic performance and skills can usually be bounded to a tight interval around zero overall our findings suggest that in affluent countries with extensive social safety nets causal effects of wealth are not a major source of the wealth mortality gradients nor of the observed relationships between child developmental outcomes and household income jel codes i10 i14 j24

estimating life cycle labor supply tax effects we present an econometrically tractable life cycle labor supply model for panel data including intertemporally progressive taxes on uncertai wage and nonwge incomes our two stage fixedeffects generalized method of moments approach first extimates intretemporal and then intertemporal preferences specification testing domonstrates the value of incorporating joint progressive taxation of labor and nonlabor incomes results for prime age men emphasize the roles played by hourly wage endogeneity worker specific effects the measure of the rate of pay and intemporal budget constaint nonseparability simulations indicate that recent tax reform while not self financing stimulated made labor supplied by about 3 percent and reduced deadweight loss about 16 percent

adjustment costs firm responses and micro vs macro labor supply elasticities evidence from danish tax records we show that the effects of taxes on labor supply are shaped by interactions between adjustment costs for workers and hours constraints set by firms we develop a model in which firms post job offers characterized by an hours requirement and workers pay search costs to find jobs we present evidence supporting three predictions of this model by analyzing bunching at kinks using danish tax records first larger kinks generate larger taxable income elasticities second kinks that apply to a larger group of workers generate larger elasticities third the distribution of job offers is tailored to match workers aggregate tax preferences in equilibrium our results suggest that macro elasticities may be substantially larger than the estimates obtained using standard microeconometric methods

separate spheres bargaining and the marriage market this paper introduces the separate spheres bargaining model a new model of distribution within marriage it differs from divorce threat bargaining models e g manser brown mcelroy horney in that the threat point is not divorce but a noncooperative equilibrium within marriage this noncooperative equilibrium reflects traditional gender roles the predictions of our model thus differ from those of divorce threat bargaining models in the separate spheres model cash transfer payments to the mother and payments to the father can but need not imply different equilibrium distributions in existing marriages in the long run the distributional effects of transfer policies may be substantially altered by changes in the marriage market equilibrium

real business cycle models past present and future in this paper i review the contribution of real business cycles models to our understanding of economic fluctuations and discuss open issues in business cycle research this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item