uncertainty investment and industry evolution we study the effects of aggregate and idiosyncratic uncertainty on the entry of firms total investment and prices in a competitive industry with irreversible investment we first use standard dynamic programming methods to determine firms entry decisions and we describe the resulting industry equilibrium and its characteristics emphasizing the effects of different sources of uncertainty we then show how the conditional distribution of prices can be used as an alternative means of determining and understanding the behavior of firms and the resulting industry equilibrium finally we use four digit u s manufacturing data to examine some implications of the model

testing the option value theory of irreversible investment this article statistically tests the option theory of irreversible investment using contingent claims valuation we derive the value of options to invest in capacity where the projects are endogenous to the economic circumstances prevailing at the investment date we then test whether decisions made by canadian copper mines are compatible with the trigger price implied by the theory our model explains investment size and timing satisfactorily from a statistical and an economic point of view simulations with a mean reverting process suggest that the results do not depend crucially on the assumption that price follows a geometric brownian motion

a theory of self selection in a market with matching frictions an application to delay in refereeing times in economics journals abstract a matching market with imperfect information is studied with imperfect information it is shown that friction in a meeting process can facilitate self selection and thus may improve the matching outcome as an application the effect of delay in refereeing time on publication outcome is analyzed in a publication process in economics journals though the delay causes efficiency loss by postponing the dissemination of new research it will better sort the papers to each journal by their qualities by preventing mediocre papers from being submitted to a prestigious journal and published by luck if an assortative outcome good papers in prestigious journals and mediocre papers in less prestigious journals is efficient the delay may actually improve the publication outcome other matching market examples are also discussed

why do households without children support local public schools linking house price capitalization to school spending while residents receive similar benefits from many local government programs only about one third of all households have children in public schools we argue that capitalization of school spending into house prices can encourage even childless residents to support spending on schools we identify a proxy for the extent of capitalization the supply of land available for new development and show that towns in massachusetts with little undeveloped land have larger changes in house prices in response to a plausibly exogenous spending shock towns with little available land also spend more on schools we extend these results using data from school districts in 46 states showing that per pupil spending is positively related to the percentage of developed land this positive correlation persists only in districts where the median resident is a homeowner and is stronger in districts with more elderly residents who do not use school services and have a shorter expected duration in their home our findings support models in which capitalization encourages the provision of durable local public goods and provides an additional reason why some elderly support local school spending

evolving standards for academic publishing a q r theory this paper develops models of quality standards to examine two trends academic journals increasingly require extensive revisions of submissions and articles are becoming longer and changing in other ways papers are modeled as varying along two quality dimensions q reflects the importance of the main ideas and r other aspects of quality observed trends are regarded as increases in r quality a static equilibrium model illustrates comparative statics explanations a dynamic model in which referees with a biased view of their own work learn social norms for weighting q and r is shown to produce a long gradual evolution of social norms

strategic investment under uncertainty a synthesis abstract investment is a central theme in economics finance and operational research traditionally the focus of analysis has been either on assessing the value of flexibility investment under uncertainty or on describing commitment effects in competitive settings industrial organization research contributions addressing the intersection of investment under uncertainty and industrial organization have become numerous in recent years in this paper we provide an overview aimed at categorizing and relating these research streams we highlight managerial insights concerning the nature of competitive advantage first versus second mover advantage the manner in which information is revealed firm heterogeneity capital increment size and the number of competing firms

an equilibrium model of investment under uncertainty this paper analyzes the optimal investment decisions of heterogeneous rms in a competitive uncertain environment we characterize rms optimal investment strategy explicitly and derive a closed form solution for rm value we show that in the strategic equilibrium real option premia are signi cant as a result rms delay investment choosing optimally not to undertake some positive npv projects the model predicts that rm returns vary over the business cycle with returns negatively skewed during expansions but positively skewed in recessions

negative uncertainty sensitivity of investment and market structure this paper examines how industry competition changes the sensitivity of investment to uncertainty using japanese firm data a switching regression model is employed to test the predictions of the real options theory regarding the uncertainty investment relationship under different industry competition attributes we find that the negative uncertainty sensitivity of investment is increased by industry concentration but decreased by market share the latter finding supports the view of strategic investment behavior of rival firms under uncertainty rather than the erosion of option values by competition

a patent race in a real options setting investment strategy valuation capm beta and return volatility abstract in this paper we study financial properties of r d intensive firms through a continuous time real options patent race model numerical analysis in this study shows that intense competition drives a firm to invest more aggressively which then pushes up its cost of capital and return volatility while introducing negative return correlation with its competitor furthermore we find that a firm s position in competition has important impacts on its financial properties for instance a firm s cost of capital is a non monotonic function of its relative position in the race in addition the relationship between cash flow uncertainty and investment can be negative when a firm is far ahead or far behind or positive when firms are close in the race

oil futures prices in a production economy with investment constraints we document a new stylized fact that the relationship between the volatility of oil futures prices and the slope of the forward curve is nonmonotone and has a v shape this pattern cannot be generated by standard models that emphasize storage we develop an equilibrium model of oil production in which investment is irreversible and capacity constrained investment constraints affect firms investment decisions and imply that the supply elasticity changes over time since demand shocks must be absorbed by changes in prices or changes in supply time varying supply elasticity results in time varying volatility of futures prices estimating this model we show it is quantitatively consistent with the v shape relationship between the volatility of futures prices and the slope of the forward curve in recent years commodity markets have experienced dramatic growth in trad

a continuous time equilibrium model of forward prices and futures prices in a multigood economy abstract this paper is a theoretical investigation of equilibrium forward and futures prices we construct a rational expectations model in continuous time of a multigood identical consumer economy with constant stochastic returns to scale production using this model we find three main results first we find formulas for equilibrium forward futures discount bond commodity bond and commodity option prices second we show that a futures price is actually a forward price for the delivery of a random number of units of a good the random number is the return earned from continuous reinvestment in instantaneously riskless bonds until maturity of the futures contract third we find and interpret conditions under which normal backwardation or contango is found in forward or futures prices these conditions reflect the usefulness of forward and futures contracts as consumption hedges

evolution of social norms with heterogeneous preferences a general model and an application to the academic review process abstract the article presents a model of social norm evolution that suggests how the increase in optimal and actual first response times frt of economics journals can be related when the optimal frt and the norm about how much time refereeing should take increase it seems that the existence of a norm increases the average refereeing time the model suggests the surprising result that this is not necessarily true i also discuss applications of the model in other contexts differences in the optimal frt between disciplines the effects of the frt on the tenure process and strategic behavior of referees

the slowdown in first response times of economics journals can it be beneficial the first response time henceforth frt of economics journals has increased over the last four decades from 1 2 months to 3 6 months the optimal frt however is not zero because the frt deters submission of mediocre papers to good journals and consequently saves valuable time of referees and editors the change in the actual frt is in the same direction as the change in the optimal frt which has increased because of the availability of research on the internet prior to publication and because the costs of refereeing a paper have increased

the determinant of production entry and exit model on financing behavior this study seeks for equity debt values and the relevant potential firm value with financing or not when the real options approach is assessed the paper deals with the following relative problems 1 the assessment rule of decision whether to stop production or not 2 whether the dis investment cost or salvage could reflect the production scale 3 whether the rate of capital cost or the rate of return in different stages could reflect the suitable risk premium 4 when the investment cost exit cost and salvage are the linear functions of production volume and follow the geometric brownian motion to analyze the optimum external financing behavior and to decide the production thresholds of production entry and exit

fear of rejection tiered certification and transparency product quality certifiers may not reveal the identity of unsuccessful applicants sellers for three reasons first they respond to the desire of individual sellers to avoid the stigma from rejection second nontransparency helps a certifier to increase his market power by raising the stigma from lower tier certification third transparency does not help screen among heterogeneous sellers strategic complementarities arise as sellers move down the certification pecking order and lead to the stigmatization of the lower tiers mandating transparency benefits the sellers but has an ambiguous impact on buyers who actually become less informed about product quality

a bayesian approach to real options the case of distinguishing between temporary and permanent shocks traditional real options models demonstrate the importance of the option to wait due to uncertainty over future shocks to project cash flows however there is often another important source of uncertainty uncertainty over the permanence of past shocks adding bayesian uncertainty over the permanence of past shocks augments the traditional option to wait with an additional option to learn the implied investment behavior differs significantly from that in standard models for example investment may occur at a time of stable or decreasing cash flows respond sluggishly to cash flow shocks and depend on the timing of project cash flows during the past two decades the real options approach to valuation of irreversible investment opportunities has become part of the mainstream literature in financial economics the central idea is that the opportunity to invest is equivalent to an american call option on the underlying investment project as a consequence the problem of optimal investment timing is analogous to the optimal exercise decision for an american option applications of the real options approach are now numerous 1 one feature that is common to virtually all real options models is that the underlying uncertainty pertains only to future shocks since future cash flows are uncertain there is an important opportunity cost of investing today the value of the asset might go up so that tomorrow will be an even better time to invest this opportunity cost is often referred to in the literature as the option

new housing supply and the dilution of social capital this paper examines the role of local housing supply conditions for social capital investment using an instrumental variables approach and data from the social capital community benchmark survey it is documented that the positive link between homeownership and individual social capital investment is largely confined to more built up neighborhoods with more inelastic supply of new housing the empirical findings provide support for the proposition that in these localities house price capitalization provides additional incentives for homeowners to invest in social capital the findings are also largely consistent with the proposition that built up neighborhoods provide protection from inflows of newcomers that could upset a mutually beneficial equilibrium involving reciprocal cooperation however the results do not appear to be driven by selection based on inherent differences in social aptitudes or by tiebout sorting

are all economic facts greatly exaggerated theory competition and selectivity there is growing concern and mounting evidence of selectivity in empirical economics most empirical economic literatures have a truncated distribution of results the aim of this paper is to explore the link between publication selectivity and theory contests this link is confirmed through the analysis of 87 distinct empirical economics literatures involving more than three and a half thousand separate empirical studies using objective measures of both selectivity and contests our meta meta analysis shows that publication selection is widespread but not universal it distorts scientific inference with potentially adverse effects on policy making but competition and debate between rival theories reduces this selectivity and thereby improves economic inference

are delays in academic publishing necessary researchers perpetually complain about long decision lags glenn ellison 2002a b confirms that delays are being longer he suggests an evolving social norm as a possible explanation with more demands made on authors for their work to be published time delays have the additional effect however of limiting the flow of submissions in the absence of time delays and other significant submission costs the best strategy is to start at the most prestigious journal and work down until the article is accepted better journals are unlikely to welcome this the major submission cost is the long and unpredictable length of time spent waiting for a decision ellison notes that time lags are longer for the top five economics journals at around six to eleven months longer than the rest despite the increasing prestige of top journals the number of submissions remains fairly static

patent protection market uncertainty and r d investment the real options investment theory shows that greater uncertainty about market revenues reduces current r d investment by increasing the value of waiting this paper presents empirical evidence that patent protection mitigates the effect market uncertainty on r d investment

submission fees and response times in academic publishing both submission fees and response times enable editors to maintain an acceptable refereeing burden by discouraging the submission of articles with low probability of acceptance when authors differ in their ability or willingness to pay submission fees and deal with delays journal quality is maximized under a combination of moderate fees and moderate delays

option exercise games an application to the equilibrium investment strategies of firms under the standard real options approach to investment under uncertainty agents formulate optimal exercise strategies in isolation and ignore competitive interactions however in many real world asset markets exercise strategies cannot be determined separately but must be formed as part of a strategic equilibrium this article provides a tractable approach for deriving equilibrium investment strategies in a continuous time cournot nash framework the impact of competition on exercise strategies is dramatic for example while standard real options models emphasize that a valuable option to wait leads firms to invest only at large positive net present values the impact of competition drastically erodes the value of the option to wait and leads to investment at very near the zero net present value threshold copyright 2002 oxford university press

optimal capital structure in agency relationships we analyze the optimal design of capital structure in agency relationships when a risk averse principal controls the agent s capital structure she awards a larger equity stake to outsiders the smaller the agent s productivity when she controls both the timing and the terms of the agent s financing the principal shifts to equityholders all risk associated with stochastic production and with the agent s unknown productivity when the principal dictates only the terms of financing only the former risk is borne by equityholders when the principal is sufficiently averse to risk she affords the agent no choice among incentive schemes

investment in competitive equilibrium the optimality of myopic behavior there is an extensive literature on the optimal irreversible investment strategy of a solitary firm facing an exogenous price process this paper shows that the investment strategies that this literature derives may be optimal in competitive equilibrium even though the price process is now endogenous this provides a simple means for computing equilibrium investment strategies

option valuation of claims on real assets the case of offshore petroleum leases this paper extends financial option theory by developing a methodology for the valuation of claims on a real asset an offshore petroleum lease several theoretical and practical problems not present in applying option pricing theory to financial assets are addressed most importantly we show the necessity of combining option pricing techniques with a model of equilibrium in the market for the underlying asset petroleum reserves the advantages of this approach over conventional discounted cash flow techniques are emphasized the methodological development provides important insights for both company behavior and government policy promising empirical results are reported

equilibrium and options on real assets in aggregate options on real and financial assets can have very different properties typically the good or service produced by a real asset has a finite elasticity of demand and developers have finite capacities also the supply of options can be limited and developers can be less than perfectly competitive in a subgame perfect nash equilibrium with these properties the optimal exercise policy and resulting values of developed and undeveloped assets are calculated explicitly the novel comparative statics are discussed in detail article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

real options and preemption under incomplete information abstract this paper introduces incomplete information and preemption into an equilibrium model of firms facing real investment decisions the optimal investment strategy may lie anywhere between the zero npv trigger level and the optimal strategy of a monopolist depending on the distribution of competitors costs and the implied fear of preemption our model implies that the equity returns of firms which hold real options and are subject to preemption will contain jumps and positive skewness

investment flexibility as a barrier to entry abstract this paper presents a model of investment in a duopoly with firms that choose the scale and timing of investment decision making flexibility and the costs saved by investing in large steps rather than sequences of small steps determine an incumbent s ability to deter entry by a potential competitor entry occurs when these cost savings are very small or very large because the effect of increased industry capacity on the incumbent s assets in place is the same regardless of which firm invests in intermediate cases the incumbent is able to deter entry by making a smaller earlier investment than the potential entrant the smaller investment scale protects the incumbent s assets in place which offsets the incumbent s cost disadvantage from investing in smaller steps than the entrant would choose nevertheless the threat of entry constrains the incumbent s investment behavior and limits its profitability the model is solved using a combination of best response iteration and the projected successive over relaxation method

going multinational under exchange rate uncertainty abstract we analyze a model where an exporting firm competes a la cournot in a foreign market the firm faces exchange rate uncertainty and has the option to invest abroad the paper contributes four results first real option pricing techniques are used to derive the optimal timing rule of the investment and the price of the firm and foreign competitors second the sunk cost of entry into the foreign market introduces hysteresis in direct investment flows we find that the degree of hysteresis grows with the number of firms in the industry third we determine the conditions under which dumping may appear and the role of fdi in precluding this type of dumping fourth tariffs have the well known fdi inducing effect more so in less competitive markets and are more effective at deterring delocation furthermore a tariff might have the effect of triggering dumping

how to write an effective referee report and improve the scientific review process author s berk jonathan b harvey campbell r hirshleifer david abstract the review process for academic journals in economics has grown vastly more extensive over time journals demand more revisions and papers have become bloated with numerous robustness checks and extensions even if the extra resulting revisions do on average lead to improved papers a claim that is debatable the cost is enormous we argue that much of the time involved in these revisions is a waste of research effort another cause for concern is the level of disagreement amongst referees a pattern that suggests a high level of arbitrariness in the review process to identify and highlight what is going right and what is going wrong in the reviewing process we wrote to a sample of former editors of the american economic review the journal of political economy the quarterly journal of economics econometrica the review of economic studies and the journal of financial economics and asked them for their thoughts about what might improve the process we found a rough consensus that referees for top journals in economics tend to make similar correctable mistakes the italicized quotations throughout this paper are drawn from our correspondence with these editors and our own experience their insights are consistent with our own experiences as editors at the journal of finance and the review of financial studies our objective is to highlight these mistakes and provide a roadmap for how to avoid them

learning preemption and the degree of rivalry we examine a model in which all firms receive common signals as to the uncertain profitability of an investment whose actual payoffs are split only among those who develop the project earliest the benefit from preempting rivals yields an equilibrium reduction in the amount of learning and earlier development as the number or rivals increases the set of equilibria shrinks as the number of rivals gets large and in the limit only the competitive outcome occurs

what s your identification strategy innovation in corporate finance research we study the diffusion of techniques designed to identify causal relationships in corporate finance research we estimate that the diffusion started in the mid 1990s lagged 20 years compared to economics and is now used in the majority of corporate finance articles consistent with recent theories of technology diffusion the adoption varies across researchers based on individuals expected net benefits of adoption younger scholars holders of phds in economics and those working at top institutions adopt faster adoption is accelerated through networks of colleagues and alumni and is also facilitated by straddlers who cross over from economics to finance our findings highlight new forces that explain the diffusion of innovation and shape the norms of academic research this paper was accepted by gustavo manso finance

the inside scoop acceptance and rejection at the journal of international economics abstract there is little work on the inner workings of journals what factors seem to affect the ability to publish in a journal could simple rules which are already used by some journals like the desk rejection of a significant minority of papers help to streamline the process at what cost how well do journals seem to do in choosing papers what can we say about the extent of type 1 and type 2 errors do editors seem to have uniform standards or are some harsher than others we use data on submissions to the journal of international economics to help answer these questions

irreversible investment real options and competition evidence from real estate development abstract we examine the extent to which uncertainty delays investment and the effect of competition on this relationship using a sample of 1214 condominium developments in vancouver canada built from 1979 1998 we find that increases in both idiosyncratic and systematic risk lead developers to delay new real estate investments empirically a one standard deviation increase in the return volatility reduces the probability of investment by 13 percent equivalent to a 9 percent decline in real prices increases in the number of potential competitors located near a project negate the negative relationship between idiosyncratic risk and development these results support models in which competition erodes option values and provide clear evidence for the real options framework over alternatives such as simple risk aversion

geology or economics testing models of irreversible investment using north sea oil data this paper tests the main implications of models of irreversible investment using data from operations in the oil fields in the north sea discrete time hazard regression models are used to ascertain the influence of economic variables the expected price of oil the variance of the price of oil and the level of reserves on the lag between the discovery of a field and the decision to develop the field we are able to control for heterogeneity in the data by incorporating variables which account for both the geological features of each field and individual operator characteristics the results indicate that the expected price of oil and the level of reserves are important in influencing the appraisal duration but that the variance of the oil price is not variables capturing the non economic features of the individual fields are also found to be significant factors affecting the appraisal lag copyright 1994 by royal economic society

on publication refereeing and working hard we present a model for academia with heterogeneous author types and endogenous effort to evaluate recent changes in the publication process in economics we analyze the implications of these developments on research output lowering the precision of refereeing signals lowers the effort choices of intermediate ability authors but invites more submissions from less able authors increasing the number of journals stimulates less able authors to submit their papers the editor can improve the journal s quality pool of submitted manuscripts by improving the precision of refereeing but not by lowering acceptance standards the submission strategy of an author is informative of his ability

strategic capacity investment under uncertainty this article considers investment decisions within an uncertain dynamic and duopolistic framework each investment decision involves to determine the timing and the capacity level the simultaneous analysis of timing and capacity decisions extends work on entry deterrence accommodation to consider a timing delay element we find that when applying an entry deterrence policy the first investor or incumbent overinvests in capacity for two reasons first it delays the investment of the second investor or entrant second the entrant will invest in less capacity we also find that greater uncertainty makes entry deterrence more likely

risk premia and preemption in r d ventures i analyze the impact of competition on the risk premia of r d ventures engaged in a multiple stage patent race with technical and market uncertainty after solving in closed form for the case of a two stage race in continuous time i show that a firm s risk premium decreases as a consequence of technical progress and increases when a rival pulls ahead compared to the case where firms collude r d competition erodes the option value to mothball a project reduces the completion time and the failure rate of r d and causes higher and more volatile risk premia numerical simulations reveal that competition can generate risk premia up to 500 annual basis points higher and up to three times more volatility than in a collusive industry

optimal land development decisions abstract this research models the development decision when net rents are growing geometrically and uncertainly and capital intensity is variable we derive simple rules for the optimal timing of land development projects based on the commonly used internal rate of return and net present value criteria we show that even under certainty projects are optimally delayed beyond the point where net present value becomes nonnegative if expected cash flows are growing the ability to vary capital intensity also raises the specter of perverse responses where increases in interest rates accelerate investment decisions the positive responses occur when growth rates are high or uncertainty is high