day of the week effects and asset returns the number of empirical studies using daily stock returns is rapidly increasing researchers generally assume that the distribution of stock returns is identical for all days of the week a convenient statistical assumption but not a necessary condition of market equilibrium nevertheless there are reasons to suspect that the distribution of returns may vary according to the day of the week the most obvious is the impact of weekends on monday s return since monday s return is calculated over three instead of one calender day the mean and variance may well be higher on monday compared with any other daily return perhaps three times as large previous research has examined the daily distribution of stock returns for a monday effect while fama 1965 does not compare daily mean returns he does report that monday s variance is about 20o greater than other daily returns with a traditional distributional assumption regarding the returns on a financial asset specifies that the expected returns are identical for all days of the week contrary to this plausible assumption this paper discovers that the expected returns on common stocks and treasury bills are not constant across days of the week the most notable evidence is for monday s returns where the mean is unusually low or even negative several explanations of the results are investigated but none proves satisfactory aside from documenting significant day of the week effects the implications of the results for tests of market efficiency are examined while market adjusted returns continue to exhibit day of the week effects these effects are no longer concentrated on monday during the last year we have had many conversations with our colleagues throughout the professions we are particularly thankful to the participants at sessions of the western and american finance associations where preliminary versions of this paper were presented special thanks are due to gene fama gailen hite jon ingersoll robert jarrow merton miller clifford smith and rex thompson the expert research assistance of frank rabinovitch and youngsup yun is gratefully acknowledged 1 the list of papers using daily stock returns is too long to name recent examples include charest 1978 dodd 1980 banz 1981 and reinganum 1981

constrained pareto optimal taxation of labour and capital incomes abstract with the pareto principle as the sole normative criterion necessary conditions for optimal tax rates on labour and capital incomes are established in an overlapping generations model the individuals in the economy have differing earning abilities and their labour supply is endogenous the analysis focuses on intragenerational aspects and is restricted to linear taxation in steady state

capital accumulation and the characteristics of private intergenerational transfers many recent studies of the process of family accumulation in general and household response to social security in particular have revealed growing dissatisfaction with the life cycle theory of saving see for example barro 1978 kotlikoff 1979 darby 1979 kotlikoff and summers 1981 kurz 1981 blinder gordon and wise 1981 david and menchik 1982 leimer and lesnoy 1982 an alternative to the life cycle hypothesis is expressed by defining the preference of each family over its own consumption as well as the welfare of the generations that follow thus each family consists of an infinite chain of generations who have interdependent preferences and for this reason we shall call it the inter generational hypothesis it was recently used by barro 1974 1978 to attack the conclusions of the life cycle hypothesis our purpose in this paper is to start the long road of studying the structure of the private inter generational transfer system with the aim of providing additional tests of the two competing hypotheses

deficits and intergenerational welfare in open economies this paper deals with public debt in open economies extending diamond s overlapping generations model to a small open economy as well as an international equilibrium of two large economies it focuses on the intergenerational welfare redistributions caused by an increase in public debt triggered by a temporary government budget deficit and shows how these redistributions differ in open and closed economies the interplay between the deficits in the government budget and the current account is also analyzed it is shown how a single period with a government deficit can be followed by a sequence of periods with a deficit in the current account

dynamic tax incidence and intergenerationally neutral reform the paper proposes a basic definition of intergenerational neutrality in the overlapping generations model when agents have a pure life cycle motive of savings the derivation of intergenerationally neutral tax effects provides a redistribution free benchmark case that isolates the relative price effects of taxes and the deadweight losses associated with them the paper clarifies the intergenerational incidence which has to be determined simultaneously with the substitution effects of taxes on savings a tax reform example demonstrates how taxes with diverging intergenerational incidence may be combined to achieve intergenerational neutrality finally the paper extends the analysis of generational tax incidence to the case of a small open economy

an empirical model of labor supply in a life cycle setting this paper formulates and estimates a structural intertemporal model of labor supply using theoretical characterizations derived from an economic model of lifetime behavior a two step empirical analysis yields estimates of intertemporal and uncompensated substitution effects which provide the information needed to predict the response of hours of work to life cycle wage growth and shifts in the lifetime wage path

tax effects versus budget effects on labor supply this paper analyzes the effects on labor supply of parallel changes in taxes and public spending of various types a number of important recent developments in the labor supply behavior of households are highlighted by such a study of various types of budget effects rather than isolated tax effects this comes out in particular when considering cross substitution effects on labor supply of changes in public spending on goods and services or of the subsidization of goods and services provided by private markets moreover the income effects of tax changes are often mitigated or possibly even removed by the income effects of the accompanying expenditure changes

the distribution of foreign exchange price changes trading day effects and risk measurement this study investigates the nature of price changes in a variety of major and minor foreign exchange markets the results suggest that the log of price changes over one trading day intervals seems to follow a non normal stable distribution function different measures of location and to lesser extent scale are present for different days of the week dollar denominated price changes are high on mondays and wednesdays and low on thursdays and fridays for all currencies the wednesday thursday result is consistent with the settlement procedures used in foreign exchange transactions in the dollar the friday monday result is consistent with an increase in demand for the dollar prior to the weekend this study offers some previously unavailable results on the nature of price changes in a certain set of speculative markets in particular this is a study of the distributional characteristics of daily and weekly price changes for a number of major and minor foreign exchange markets the results document the existence of non normal stable distributions for price changes in foreign exchange markets these price change distributions differ by day of the week in ways that are only partly attributable to the institutional structure of the market the results of the study are interpreted within the context of understanding how foreign exchange markets operate and within the context of prior studies of stock market data concerned with summarizing the probability distribution of price changes for different intervals including days of the week since bachelier s 1 original treatise that contained the proposition that speculative market prices follow a process that could be described by a normal distribution there have been numerous alternative attempts to describe the stochastic processes which characterize speculative market prices these studies have not resulted in any generalized description of the probability distribution of price changes in such markets indeed the evidence suggests substantial differences in the process among various types of financial instruments the failure to achieve consensus can be traced to the lack of robustness in the statistical procedures employed to estimate processes and to differences in the underlying institutional or economic arrangements which are unique to that market the possibility of differences in the information set used to assess value or differences in technology for transmitting information makes it important to secure additional

an upper bound on optimal income taxes abstract the message of this paper is very simple a certain range of tax rates determined by supply and demand functions only can be disregarded in linear optimal taxation approaches before any interpersonal utility comparisons are made in particular no marginal tax rate above a certain level can be optimal with respect to pareto inclusive social orderings it is shown that is in general not larger than and sometimes strictly less than the minimal tax rate at which tax revenues are maximal conditions under which is the least upper bound are given and a comparison is made with tax rates obtained by the rawlsian maximin principle

welfare effects of alternative forms of public spending the paper analyzes welfare effects in a second best world of public spending of three different types transfer payments public consumption and public investment it is shown how these effects d

the end of the month as a preferred habitat a test of operational efficiency in the money market this paper argues that an aggregate preferred habitat for investors exists on or about the last day of the calendar month due to standardizations in the nation s payments system resulting in a concentrated flow of funds on this date thus equilibrium yield discounts are predicted for securities maturing on such dates empirical tests on monthly and daily treasury bill data support the principal hypothesis as well as several ancillary hy potheses the results have implications for treasury debt management for the short term cash and debt management practices of businesses and banks and for the empirical esti mation of daily weekly or monthly return premiums on risky securities

intergenerational aspects of public transfers borrowing and debt the paper analyzes intergeneration distributional effects of taxes transfer payments public borrowing and debt a two period life cucle model with overlapping generations is constructed the model has two specific features private wealth in both periods enter as arguments in the preference function and the individuals inelastically supply labor in both periods it turns out that some fiscal policy actions favor both of the currently lliving generations possibly at the expense of future generations while other actions generate conflicts between the currently living generations the analysis also shows that it makes considerable difference whether the burden of public spending debt and borrowing is defined in terms of wealth consumption and utility the different implications of foreign vs domestic debt are examined

output effects of government purchases the theoretical analysis focuses on the distinction between temporary and permanent movements in government purchases under plausible conditions the temporary case involves an output response that is positive less than one to one with the change in government purchases and larger than that generated by an equal sized but permanent shift in purchase the equilibrium real rate of return rise in the temporary case but changes little in the permanent one defense purchases are divided empirically into permanent and temporary components by considering the role of temporary wars no temporary shifts in nondefense purchases were isolated empirical results verify an expansionary output effect for temporary purchases that exceeds that of permanent purchases the results for some other expectational hypotheses are found to be generally supportive of the theory

economists and the welfare state abstract this paper constrasts the views of the welfare state of economists in the 1940s and 1950s with those of the current generation it is argued that economists as a profession in particular in the scandinavian countries have changed from being strong spokesmen for the welfare state to becoming much more critical the reasons for this are sought both in the expansion of the public sector in recent decades and in the development of economic theory in the areas of public finance insurance and incentives and public choice an attempt is made to evaluate the importance of the empirical and theoretical developments for the changing views of the welfare state

remaining puzzles and neglected issues in macroeconomics this paper analyses the chain of transmission mechanisms of economic policy actions to financial markets output and employment and finally unemployment in an attempt to identify remaining puzzles and neglected issues in macroeconomics the paper emphasizes the consequences of fiscal and monetary policy actions on real variables including real interest rates and real exchange rates an attempt is made to explain why product demand shocks often tend to have faster effects on output and employment than on prices the paper also discusses why demand induced increases in output and employment are not systematically connected with a reduction in the product wage rate the paper ends with a discussion of various supply side considerations in macroeconomics

on reforming the welfare system abstract using a simulation model for a small open economy quebec 1986 various negative income tax nit and workfare schemes are compared from the point of view of efficiency and equity the main finding is that there exist workfare schemes that are superior both to the quebec regime of 1986 and to a nit characterized by a 100 percent implicit tax rate however these workfare schemes are dominated by some nit programs this suggests that it may be necessary to have work requirements that vary across socio demographic classes for a workfare plan to be superior to any nit combining workfare with an nit could also be the prescription

labour supply tax evasion and the marginal cost of public funds an empirical investigation abstract in this paper we extend the concept of marginal cost of public funds itmcf to incorporate tax evasion in the labour market mcf values are also computed from various tax reforms applied to the province of quebec canada 1985 for this purpose a utility based labour supply model that allows for both regular and irregular work activities is used at the benchmark situation the mcf associated with an increase in marginal income tax rates ranges between 1 39 and 1 53 depending upon whether we consider rationing or not moreover the presence of the irregular sector accounts for between 0 02 and 0 05 of this mcf although small in magnitude the impact of the irregular sector increases rapidly with the level of marginal tax rates

progressive income taxes test of efficiency upper bounds on efficient tax rates in a progressive labor income tax schedule are derived within the standard framework of optimal taxation a tax rate is efficient if it is not pareto dominated by any other tax rate the formulas derived are applied to the swedish 1982 tax schedule inefficiency is revealed for the middle income groups copyright 1990 by the editors of the scandinavian journal of economics

a further investigation of the weekend effect in stock returns this study uses a longer time period and additional stocks to further investigate the weekend effect we find consistently negative monday returns 1 for the s p composite as early as 1928 2 for exchange traded stocks of firms of all sizes and 3 for actively traded over the counter otc stocks the otc results are based on bid prices and therefore appear to reject specialist related explanations for the 30 individual stocks of the dow jones industrial index the average correlation between friday and monday returns is positive and the highest of all pairs of successive days the latter finding is inconsistent with fairly general measurement error explanations some of the most puzzling empirical findings reported in recent years indicate that the distribution of common stock returns varies by day of the week most notably the average return for monday close friday to close monday is significantly negative cross 3 and french 6 find negative monday returns using the standard and poor s composite index and gibbons and hess 7 find negative monday returns for the 30 individual stocks of the dow jones industrial index 1 this negative monday return or weekend effect has yet to be explained this study undertakes a further investigation of the weekend effect in stock returns we examine additional time periods extending the total period covered to 55 years we examine additional stocks such as those of small low capitalization firms and those traded over the counter in all cases the data exhibit a weekend effect that is at least as strong as that reported in previous studies the study also readdresses potential explanations for the effect such as measurement error but concludes that none of these explanations is satisfactory the first section presents a history of the weekend effect from 1928 through 1982 based on the standard and poor s composite index we essentially double the length of the period beginning in 1953 examined by french 6 the results indicate consistently negative monday returns throughout the 55 year period during much of the 25 year period from 1928 through 1952 the new york stock exchange was open on saturdays so monday s return is then computed from saturday s close to monday s close 2 these returns for one day weekends are consistently negative and not significantly different from the two day weekend

day of the week and intraday effects in stock returns abstract this study examines day of the week effects using hourly values of the dow jones industrial average we find that over the 1963 1983 period the weekend effect has sifted from characterizing active trading on monday to characterizing the non trading weekend over the early part of our sample period negative returns characterize each hour of trading on monday while the return from friday close to monday open is positive in the most recent subperiod monday average hourly returns after noon are all positive and the weekend effect is due to negative average returns from friday close to monday open

uncertainty and optimal social security systems this paper examines the annuity aspect of social security within the framework of an overlapping generations model the duration of life is assumed to be uncertain under a fully funded system demand for social security is determined by each generation so as to maximize expected lifetime utility taking into account the welfare of future generations under a pay as you go system with intergenerational transfers demand for retirement benefits by the working population takes into account taxes paid by descendants it is shown that the two modes of finance are equivalent in terms of all real aggregates effects of changes in expected lifetime and in the birth rate are analyzed starting at the optimal level a compulsory balanced increase in social security taxes and benefits is shown to increase short run savings

daily seasonality in stock returns further international evidence abstract daily seasonality in stock markets is one of the most intriguing problems in financial economics and a true challenge to the efficiency hypothesis this paper examines daily seasonality in the new york tokyo london frankfurt paris and madrid stock markets in recent years the results obtained are quite different from the patterns described in existing literature which examines earlier periods

growth welfare and the size of government i introduction given the current state of political debate within the u s it would appear that making the claim a smaller government is a better government is just a mere statement of a simple fact president clinton the head of the political party which has traditionally supported a larger government has now proclaimed that the era of big government is over and has proposed fiscal programs to cut both taxes and the growth of government spending in a very real sense it has been economists who have been consensus makers on this issue numerous studies have been conducted recently estimating the growth and welfare costs of distortionary taxation 1 these studies have generally found that income and capital taxation have large welfare effects and also significant effects on growth however the potential benefits of the government purchases financed with distortionary taxes are very limited in these supply side models most often being simply ignored in these aforementioned studies government purchases do not directly provide utility to households and do not affect the productivity of firms as a result the optimal size of government in these models is zero which is a troubling property of any model being used to evaluate the effects of changes in fiscal policy in terms of cost benefit analysis by ignoring these effects previous studies have only considered the costs of a larger government but not the benefits 2 this paper develops an endogenous growth model of the u s economy in which government purchases directly affect both the utility of individuals through the provision of public consumption goods and services and the productivity of firms through the provision of public capital in a manner which is consistent with existing empirical work by aschauer 1985 1989 and munnell 1990a b among others by incorporating the full benefits of government purchases into our model the growth and welfare effects of a smaller government can be more realistically evaluated this paper proceeds as follows in section ii the endogenous growth model with human capital accumulation used in this study is described the competitive equilibrium of the model is described and calculated in section iii and the calibration of the parameters in the model is discussed in section iv in section v various fiscal policy experiments are conducted investigating the growth and welfare effects of government downsizing although this is a macroeconomic model and as such is too general to investigate the effects of specific government spending and taxation programs the results presented here do provide some broad fiscal policy guidelines 1 the effects of a smaller government depend as much on the mix of spending cuts as on the mix of tax cuts and government downsizing is not necessarily growth and welfare enhancing 2 while tax reductions by themselves can significantly increase growth and welfare simultaneous reductions in government spending and taxation are not likely to lead to large positive or negative changes in growth or welfare regardless of the exact form of the spending and tax cuts 3 reducing the size of government is less likely to increase growth and welfare if the reductions in public investment are large especially reductions in public investment which directly affect the accumulation of human capital 4 government downsizing is most likely to increase growth and welfare if the proceeds from spending cuts are used to finance reductions in capital tax rates 5 across the board spending cuts fail to maximize the potential growth and welfare benefits of government downsizing although downsizing is more likely to increase growth and welfare if the cuts pertain to all forms of government spending including transfer payments and not just government purchases ii description of the model the model developed here is similar to the well known two sector endogenous growth model used by rebelo 1991 and king and rebelo 1990 with endogenous labor supply

new findings regarding day of the week returns over trading and non trading periods a note this paper decomposes daily close to close returns into trading day and non trading day returns we discover that all of the average negative returns from friday close to monday close documented in the literature for stock market indexes occurs during the non trading period from friday close to monday open in addition average trading day returns open to close are identical for all days of the week january firm size turn of the year anomalies are shown to be interrelated with day of the week returns

valuing public goods a comparison of survey and hedonic approaches although the theory of public goods has progressed rapidly since paul samuelson s seminal article the empirical measurement of the value of demand for public goods only recently has received increased attention perhaps the best known and most widely accepted empirical approach has been the use of hedonic prices wherein for example it is assumed that either wages or housing values reflect spatial variation in public good characteristics of different communities this indirect approach based on theoretical work of charles tiebout kelvin lancaster sherwin rosen and others has proven quite successful among public goods or bads which have been valued using the hedonic approach are climate i hoch air pollution robert anderson and thomas crocker d harrison and d rubinfeld social infrastructure r cummings et al and other community characteristics such as noise level j nelson and ethnic composition ann schnare an alternative approach is to directly ask households or individuals to state their willingness to pay for public goods using survey techniques despite arguments that strategic bias will invalidate survey results there exists the need for an alternative to the hedonic approach as an example consider the case of a remote and unique scenic vista valuable to recreators which is threatened by air pollution from a proposed coal fired plant a typical situation in the western united states although it is possible in principle to impute the value of clean air and visibility from the relative decline in local visitation which might follow construction of a power plant information on the value of visibility at the site is needed prior to construction for socially optimal decision making on plant location and pollution control equipment the hedonic approach is unavailable both because the scarcity of local population as opposed to recreators makes use of wage or property value data impossible and because scenic vistas may themselves be unique for these reasons a randall et al first applied survey methods for valuing visibility and other environmental effects of large coal fired power plants in the four corners region of new mexico since this initial application the survey approach has been widely used to value environmental commodities where market data for hedonic analysis is difficult to acquire see for example brookshire ives and schulze rowe et al brookshire et al other early attempts to value public goods using the survey approach include r davis peter bohm and j hammack and g brown although results of using the survey approach for estimating the value of public goods appear to be internally consistent replicable and consistent with demand theory see schulze et al little work on external validation has been reported thus the purpose of this paper is to report on an experiment designed to validate the survey approach by direct comparison to a hedonic property value study the los angeles metropolitan area was chosen for the experiment because of the well defined air pollution problem and be assistant professor university of wyoming assistant professor university of missouri rolla associate professor university of wyoming and professor university of wyoming respectively the research reported here was funded under a grant methods development for assessing air pollution control benefits from the u s environmental protection agency we would like to give special thanks to alan carlin and shelby gerking for their helpful suggestions and contributions additional helpful comments were received from a myrick freeman iii john tschirhart and james murdoch all conclusions are of course our sole responsibility

intra day tests of the efficiency of the treasury bill futures market in this paper we use intra day prices to examine the efficiency of the treasury bill futures market the use of intra day data allows us to carefully match in time trades in the futures and cash markets by matching trades and allowing delays between observing apparent inefficiencies and the trade we are examining realistic trading strategies we find profitable arbitrage swaps and a preferred strategy for initial purchase these profits do not depend on an assumption of an equilibrium model hence these tests are direct tests of efficiency rather than a joint test of efficiency and equilibrium t his paper examines the efficiency of the treasury bill futures market this subject has been examined before by capozza and cornell 1979 cornell 1981 lang and rasche 1978 rendleman and carabini 1979 vignola and dale 1979 poole 1978 and puglisi 1978 there are a number of reasons why this paper makes an important contribution to the literature the first reason is that by using trade by trade futures prices we can make more realistic assumptions about the pnces at which trades could have taken place this paper uses intra day prices to examine efficiency prior studies at best used closing prices to examine apparent inefficiencies and assumed that transactions took place at these closing prices there are two problems with this procedure first simultaneous transactions cannot actually occur at closing prices there is almost an hour difference between the closing of the chicago futures and new york spot markets thus when the closing spot market price is observed the futures market has been closed for about an hour closing prices could be used to judge apparent discrepancies however it would be necessary to execute trades at the open making decisions based on closing prices and then assuming trades can take place at these prices is an approximation which could significantly affect results in addition using only closing prices ignores any intra day trades which could lead to profits in this study we match in time intra day prices in the spot and futures market these matched prices are used to identify apparently profitable trading rules we then assume trades take place at prices which are observed later in the day this is a test of a trading rule which an investor could actually follow as we discuss later in the paper our results differ from prior studies these differences are primarily due to using intra day prices and carefully matching times so that information used to initiate trades would actually be available to the investor at the time of the trade the second reason is that we examine more complex trading strategies than those which have been employed in other studies the random walk literature provides a useful analogy the original random walk studies simply correlated past and future prices or returns later studies examined filter rules and other more complicated trading rules in this study we employ alternative trading rules of increased complexity to test for the existence of trading profits finally we explicitly examine the consequence of t bills futures contracts being futures rather than forward contracts futures contracts unlike forward contracts involve flows every settlement day the intermediate cash flows on futures contracts can affect the profitability of any strategy the only prior study that even considered this effect is the one by rendleman and carabini 1979 they used the theoretical model of cox ingersoll and ross 1981 to try to estimate whether the difference between forward and futures prices was likely to be large enough to affect the payoff from alternative trading strategies this is a useful first attempt however ultimately the effect of daily settlement or marking to the market has to be examined directly as part of trading strategies to see if it affects the outcome of these strategies there are other problems with prior studies these involve gross estimates of prices and averaging data in a way that can mask inefficiencies since these problems are discussed in some detail in rendleman and carabini there is no reason to review them further here probably no area in finance has received more attention than the efficiency literature the reader may well wonder why even given the approximareceived for publication august 23 1982 revision accepted for publication may 20 1983 new york university new york university and baruch college respectively the authors would like to thank the center for the study of futures markets at columbia business school for financial support

the puzzling price behavior of treasury bills that mature at the turn of calendar months abstract this paper documents the unusual price behavior of treasury bills that mature at the turn of calendar months there is a kink in the yield curve as it crosses calendar months and this kink is most pronounced as the yield curve crosses between calendar years potential seasonality in the spot rate of interest could not explain these results nor could they be explained by the mispricing of either the last bill or first bill in a month the exceptionally large premium on the first bill in a month tended to be earned throughout the lifetime of the bill

high stock returns before holidays existence and evidence on possible causes on the trading day prior to holidays stocks advance with disproportionate frequency and show high mean returns averaging nine to fourteen times the mean return for the remaining days of the year over one third of the total return accruing to the market portfolio over the 1963 1982 period was earned on the eight trading days which each year fall before holiday market closings examination of hourly pre holiday stock returns reveals high returns throughout the day pre holiday stock returns in the post test 1983 1986 period are also examined this paper explores a seeming empirical regularity in the pattern of daily stock index returns surrounding holidays the trading day prior to holidays on average exhibits high positive returns over one third of the return earned by the market over the twenty year test period accrued on the eight trading days which annually fall before holidays intimations of the pre holiday strength have appeared in the academic literature in an examination of the frequency of dow jones industrial average advances on days surrounding weekends during the 1901 to 1932 period fields 1934 finds a disproportionate frequency of advances on trading days preceding long holiday weekends roll 1983a finds high returns accruing to small firms on the trading day prior to new year s day lakonishok and smidt 1984 note that prices also rise in all deciles of market capitalization on the last trading day before christmas and conclude that the high christmas returns of large companies might be considered another mystery a number of stock market advisors have also noted the pre holiday strength merrill 1966 finds a disproportionate frequency of dow jones industrial average advances on days preceding holidays during the 1897 to 1965 period and fosback 1976 has noted high preholiday returns in sp further hourly returns and closing bid ask data are examined to determine when high returns accrue on preholidays tests are also conducted showing that pre holiday strength is not

dynamic hours of work functions for husbands wives and single females hours of work equations are derived from the constrained maximization of a utility function that is not separable over time and that varies with a household s demographic structure these equations are fitted to observations on wage rates nonlabor income and other variables for husbands wives and unmarried women the dependence of each household s current work and consumption behavior upon its work and consumption behavior in the past is examined closely and different interpretations of the relationship are confronted with the data

lifetime and annual marginal costs of redistribution in england sweden and the united states both the annual and lifetime marginal costs of redistribution in england sweden and the united states are calculated the annual marginal cost of redistribution is 2 90 in the united states 3 53 in england and 6 77 in sweden the lifetime marginal cost of redistribution is 4 46 in the united states and 7 96 in england the lifetime marginal cost of redistribution in sweden indicates that additional redistribution reduces the incomes of both the poor and nonpoor this study also shows that when there is greater income equality the marginal tax rate at which the incomes of the poor and nonpoor begin to be reduced will be at lower and lower levels copyright 1993 by mit press

optimal dynamic carbon taxes in a climate economy model with distortionary fiscal policy how should carbon be taxed as a part of fiscal policy the literature on optimal carbon pricing often abstracts from other taxes however when governments raise revenues with distortionary taxes carbon levies have fiscal impacts while they raise revenues directly they may shrink the bases of other taxes e g by decreasing employment this article theoretically characterizes and then quantifies optimal carbon taxes in a dynamic general equilibrium climate economy model with distortionary fiscal policy first this article establishes a novel theoretical relationship between the optimal taxation of carbon and of capital income this link arises because carbon emissions destroy natural capital they accumulate in the atmosphere and decrease future output consequently this article shows how the standard logic against capital income taxes extends to distortions on environmental capital investments second this article characterizes optimal climate policy in sub optimal fiscal settings where income taxes are constrained to remain at their observed levels third this article presents a detailed calibration that builds on the seminal dice approach but adds features essential for a setting with distortionary taxes such as a differentiation between climate change production impacts e g on agriculture and direct utility impacts e g on biodiversity existence value the central quantitative finding is that optimal carbon tax schedules are 8 24 lower when there are distortionary taxes compared to the setting with lump sum taxes considered in the literature

eliciting gps preferences for pecuniary and non pecuniary job characteristics abstract this study examines general practitioners preferences for pecuniary and non pecuniary job characteristics in the context of choosing a general practice in which to work a discrete choice experiment is used to test hypotheses about the nature of the utility function marginal rates of substitution between income and non pecuniary characteristics are calculated the results suggest that policies aimed at influencing general practitioners location choices should take account of both non pecuniary and pecuniary factors particularly out of hours work commitments

nonpecuniary rewards in the workplace demand estimates using quasi market data lack of explicit markets and associated data have impeded measurement of nonpecuniary rewards in the workplace most of the published literature employs hedonic models that permit estimation of market clearing prices but do not allow for identification of demand schedules in an alternative approach used successfully by environmental economists the author develops quasi market data and uses it to estimate demand for the nonpecuniary rewards associated with leadership in addition to price responsiveness individuals exhibit tastes for the amenities of leadership that differ substantially and in expected directions with their personal and professional characteristics copyright 1991 by mit press

steady state solutions of optimal tax mixes in an overlapping generations model abstract this paper analyzes steady state solutions of optimal tax mixes in an overlapping generations model of heterogeneous individuals with a utilitarian social welfare function a test with cobb douglas utility functions shows that an uneven distribution of the innate abilities leads to high rates of consumption and wage income taxes and a high level of a lump sum transfer the more the labor force works the higher the optimal tax on wage income significant differences in individual preferences lead to low rates of consumption and wage income taxes and to a high rate of interest income tax with identical preferences the rate of interest income tax is zero

tax revenue and the marginal cost of public funds in sweden abstract we assess the welfare cost of raising a marginal unit of tax revenue in a balanced budget general equilibrium framework the calculated social cost of an increment of public funds is sensitive to both the specific type of tax increase and the type of public spending used on the margin best guess assumptions on labor supply elasticities yield marginal costs of public funds for different fiscal mixes of between 0 67 and 4 51 at prevailing tax rates in sweden alternative labor supply assumptions well within the range of current estimates substantially affect the results and can imply infinite marginal welfare costs marginal welfare costs are also sensitive to assumptions about both the income and substitution effects of labor supply

are seasonal anomalies real a ninety year perspective in recent years there has been a proliferation of empirical studies documenting unexpected or anomalous regularities in security rates of return in addition to the widely studied relation between firm size and rate of return 1 these include seasonal regularities related to the time of the day harris 1986 the day of the week see ball and bowers 1986 cross 1973 french 1980 gibbons and hess 1981 jaffe and westerfield 1985 keim and stambaugh 1984 and lakonishok and levi 1982 the time of the month ariel 1987 and the turn of the year see haugen and lakonishok 1988 jones pearce and wilson 1987 lakonishok

whose sabbath matters or when does the weekend effect occur abstract the weekend effect and other seasonal anomalies in financial markets are now familiar in many countries in searching for explanations for the weekend effect in particular it would be helpful to know when exactly it occurs whatever the it may be that produces the effect since most countries do not have weekend trading in financial assets the timing of it has not been narrowed down israel has trading in all financial assets except currency trading on sunday by examining day of the week effects for israel it appears that the weekend effect occurs on sunday late in the day and not an friday evening ar saturday other seasonal anomalies in israel seem to be similar to those elsewhere the generalizability of the findings to other countries is discussed

how much do farmers value their independence a farmer s decision to contract or produce independently depends on the distribution of income and the nonpecuniary attributes associated with both business arrangements the benefits to growers from contracting such as risk reduction may be overestimated if the nonpecuniary benefits enjoyed by independent producers such as the right to make management decisions and own the commodity produced are not accounted for this study uses data from a u s national survey of hog producers to estimate 1 the difference in expected net returns between contracting and independent production 2 the premium a representative farmer would pay for the risk reduction provided by a contract and 3 the premium a farmer would pay for the nonpecuniary benefits associated with independent production results indicate that growers have a strong preference for autonomy with moderately risk averse growers being willing to pay more for the attributes of independent production than they would for the risk reducing benefits of a contract

the week end effect in common stock returns the international evidence this paper examines the daily stock market returns for four foreign countries we find a so called week end effect in each country in addition the lowest mean returns for the japanese and australian stock markets occur on tuesday the remainder of the paper answers four questions are seasonal patterns in foreign stock markets independent of those previously reported in the u s do japan and australia exhibit a seasonal one day out of phase due to different time zones do settlement procedures across countries bias week end effects does the seasonal pattern in foreign exchange offset the week end effect in stocks for americans investing overseas some of the most anomalous empirical findings in finance are associated with the sample distributions of daily common stock returns cross 1 french 2 gibbons and hess 3 and keim and stambaugh 4 have documented that the average return on friday is abnormally high and the average return on monday is abnormally low to our knowledge this so called day of the week effect or week end effect has yet to be explained because this anomaly has been reported primarily for u s stock returns it is appropriate to investigate whether similar results occur for other countries positive findings would strongly support the proposition that the weekly seasonal effect is a general world wide phenomenon rather than the result of a special type of institutional arrangement in the u s to shed more light on this proposition our paper examines stock market returns in the u k japan canada and australia since we find a week end effect in each country we can examine a set of interesting questions for example are these seasonals independent of the previously reported seasonal in the u s due to different time zones do far eastern countries exhibit a seasonal one day out of phase do different settlement procedures across countries influence weekend effects does the seasonal in foreign exchange fluctuations see mcfarland pettit and sung 7 and levi 6 offset the week end effect in stock market returns for americans investing overseas

the welfare cost of capital income taxation in a growing economy the welfare cost of capital income taxation is analyzed in a general equilibrium framework where the private sector is represented by a competitive household endowed with perfect foresight and an infinite life the value of the welfare cost depends essentially on the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor in the production function numerical estimates are presented for different values of the parameters of the model the welfare gain obtained by the abolition of the capital income tax is smaller when the private sector is not endowed with perfect foresight it is reduced by about 40 percent when expectations are myopic the allocation efficiency cost of the corporate tax dwarfs the intertemporal welfare cost

the weekly pattern in stock returns cash versus futures a note this paper presents tests designed to determine whether the weekly pattern in stock returns continues after the introduction of futures trading on stock indexes and whether the pattern carries over to the futures market using data for the sp500 i find that the monday effect does persist in the cash market but there is no evidence of a similar pattern in the futures market among the growing array of market anomalies one of the most widely documented but least understood is the day of the week effect detailed research by french 2 gibbons and hess 3 lakonishok and levi 6 and keim and stambaugh 5 clearly shows that the mean return on monday is less than that

a transaction data study of weekly and intradaily patterns in stock returns abstract weekly and intradaily patterns in common stock prices are examined using transaction data for large firms negative monday close to close returns accrue between the friday close and the monday open for smaller firms they accrue primarily during the monday trading day for all firms significant weekday differences in intraday returns accrue during the first 45 minutes after the market opens on monday mornings prices drop while on the other weekday mornings they rise otherwise the pattern of intraday returns is similar on all weekdays most notable is an increase in prices on the last trade of the day

reducing co2 emissions under fiscal retrenchment a multi cohort cge model for austria the stabilization of budget deficit and budget debt ratios by fiscal retrenchment in order to fulfill the maastricht criteria for the emu is of central focus in most eu countries at the same time the national policy dimension of acute environmental problems such as global warming has receded in the public eye the environmental dimension nonetheless remains urgent and a re evaluation of the prospects of co2 policy is needed against the background of fiscal retrenchment required by supranational obligations we shall do this for the small open austrian economy by constructing a dynamic multi cohort cge model enabling us to assess quantitatively the lifetime welfare impacts on the cohorts affected by three different options for using co2 permit revenues the distribution of welfare costs of toronto co2 policy across cohorts significantly differs with use this is explained by income inheritance and price effects

current account effects of a temporary change in government expenditure a perfect foresight model of intertemporal utility maximization is used to analyze the current account effects of a temporary increase in government spending the relationship between the marginal utility of private consumption and the supply of public goods in the economy is shown to play a crucial role in determining the qualitative nature of the optimal current account response the link between the timing of the policy change and the magnitude of the current account effect is also examined