long term intergenerational persistence of human capital an empirical analysis of four generations most previous studies of intergenerational transmission of human capital are restricted to two generations how parents influence their children in this study we use a swedish data set that links individual measures of lifetime earnings for three generations and data on educational attainment for four generations we find that estimates obtained from data on two generations severely underestimate long run intergenerational persistence in both labor earnings and educational attainments long run social mobility is hence much lower than previously thought we attribute this additional persistence to dynastic human capital the influence on human capital of more distant family members than parents

does education affect risk aversion evidence from the british education reform individual risk attitudes are frequently used to predict decisions regarding education however using risk attitudes as a control variable for decisions about education has been criticized because of the potential for reverse causality causality between risk aversion and education is unclear and disentangling the different directions it may run is difficult in this study we make the first attempt to investigate the causal effects of education on risk aversion by examining the british education reform of 1972 which increased the duration of compulsory schooling from age 15 to age 16 using regression discontinuity design we find that this additional year of schooling increases the level of risk aversion which is contrary to previous findings in the literature and we also find that this result is particularly strong for individuals with less education this positive causal effect of education on risk aversion might alleviate concerns regarding the endogeneity reverse causality issue when using risk aversion as an explanatory variable for decisions about education the sign would remain credible because the coefficients are underestimated

science fiction and innovation a response abstract daniele archibugi s use of the film blade runner to discuss future prospects for techno economic paradigm change is considered in relation to several questions is science fiction a literature of prediction and if not what role might it have in developing insights about possible futures is the current economic malaise predominantly due to a shortcoming of technological opportunity or to a fiscal paradox and political decisions about how to deal with this paradox might the present day equivalent for techno economic paradigm change be more about the innovations necessary to rebuild or retrofit our existing technologies than about producing new growth sectors

education and propaganda tradeoffs to public education provision in nondemocracies abstract nondemocratic regimes face a tradeoff when investing in public education education promotes human capital acquisition expanding the tax base yet it also enhances political sophistication and participation at a cost to nondemocratic regimes to relax this tradeoff a regime can disseminate propaganda through its education system i show that even bayesian citizens can be influenced by propaganda by deterring political opposition propaganda can induce nondemocracies to invest in education when they otherwise would not improving social welfare when propaganda is too strong however it can generate a backlash using cross country and survey data i find evidence consistent with the predictions

islamic rule and the empowerment of the poor and pious does islamic political control affect women s empowerment several countries have recently experienced islamic parties coming to power through democratic elections due to strong support among religious conservatives constituencies with islamic rule often tend to exhibit poor women s rights whether this reflects a causal relationship or a spurious one has so far gone unexplored i provide the first piece of evidence using a new and unique data set of turkish municipalities in 1994 an islamic party won multiple municipal mayor seats across the country using a regression discontinuity rd design i compare municipalities where this islamic party barely won or lost elections despite negative raw correlations the rd results reveal that over a period of six years islamic rule increased female secular high school education corresponding effects for men are systematically smaller and less precise in the longer run the effect on female education remained persistent up to 17 years after and also reduced adolescent marriages an analysis of long run political effects of islamic rule shows increased female political participation and an overall decrease in islamic political preferences the results are consistent with an explanation that emphasizes the islamic party s effectiveness in overcoming barriers to female entry for the poor and pious

estimating the impact of the hajj religion and tolerance in islam s global gathering we estimate the impact on pilgrims of performing the hajj pilgrimage to mecca our method compares successful and unsuccessful applicants in a lottery used by pakistan to allocate hajj visas pilgrim accounts stress that the hajj leads to a feeling of unity with fellow muslims but outsiders have sometimes feared that this could be accompanied by antipathy toward non muslims we find that participation in the hajj increases observance of global islamic practices such as prayer and fasting while decreasing participation in localized practices and beliefs such as the use of amulets and dowry it increases belief in equality and harmony among ethnic groups and islamic sects and leads to more favorable attitudes toward women including greater acceptance of female education and employment increased unity within the islamic world is not accompanied by antipathy toward non muslims instead hajjis show increased belief in peace and in equality and harmony among adherents of different religions the evidence suggests that these changes are likely due to exposure to and interaction with hajjis from around the world rather than to a changed social role of pilgrims upon return

using maimonides rule to estimate the effect of class size on scholastic achievement the twelfth century rabbinic scholar maimonides proposed a maximum class size of 40 this same maximum induces a nonlinear and nonmonotonic relationship between grade enrollment and class size in israeli public schools today maimonides rule of 40 is used here to construct instrumental variables estimates of effects of class size on test scores the resulting identiecation strategy can be viewed as an application of donald campbell s regression discontinuity design to the class size question the estimates show that reducing class size induces a signiecant and substantial increase in test scores for fourth and efth graders although not for third graders when asked about their views on class size in surveys parents and teachers generally report that they prefer smaller classes this may be because those involved with teaching believe that smaller classes promote student learning or simply because smaller classes offer a more pleasant environment for the pupils and teachers who are in them mueller chase and walden 1988 social scientists and school administrators also have a longstanding interest in the class size question class size is often thought to be easier to manipulate than other school inputs and it is a variable at the heart of policy debates on school quality and the allocation of school resources in many countries see e g robinson 1990 for the united states ofsted 1995 for the united kingdom and moshel ravid 1995 for israel this broad interest in the consequences of changing class size

the effect of education on religion evidence from compulsory schooling laws abstract for over a century social scientists have debated how educational attainment impacts religious belief in this paper i use canadian compulsory schooling laws to identify the relationship between completed schooling and later religiosity i find that higher levels of education lead to lower levels of religious affiliation later in life an additional year of education leads to a 4 percentage point decline in the likelihood that an individual identifies with any religious tradition this is a reasonably large effect extrapolating the results to the broader population would suggest that increases in schooling could explain most of the large rise in non affiliation in canada in recent decades

the effect of female education on fertility and infant health evidence from school entry policies using exact date of birth this paper uses age at school entry policies to identify the effect of female education on fertility and infant health we focus on sharp contrasts in schooling fertility and infant health between women born just before and after the school entry date school entry policies affect female education and the quality of a woman s mate and have generally small but possibly heterogeneous effects on fertility and infant health we argue that school entry policies manipulate primarily the education of young women at risk of dropping out of school

are there civic returns to education abstract the hypothesized effects of educational attainment on adult civic engagement and attitudes provide some of the most important justifications for government intervention in the market for education in this study i present evidence on whether these externalities exist i assess and implement two strategies for identifying the effects of educational attainment one is based on the availability of junior and community colleges the other on changes in teen exposure to child labor laws the results suggest that educational attainment has large and statistically significant effects on subsequent voter participation and support for free speech i also find that additional schooling appears to increase the quality of civic knowledge as measured by the frequency of newspaper readership

maternal education home environments and the development of children and adolescents we study the intergenerational effects of maternal education on children s cognitive achievement behavioral problems grade repetition and obesity we address endogeneity of maternal schooling by instrumenting with variation in schooling costs when the mother grew up using matched data from the female participants of the national longitudinal survey of youth 1979 nlsy79 and their children we can control for mother s ability and family background factors our results show substantial intergenerational returns to education for children aged 7 8 for example our iv results indicate that an additional year of mother s schooling increases the child s performance on a standardized math test by almost 0 1 of a standard deviation and reduces the incidence of behavioral problems our data set allows us to study a large array of channels which may transmit the effect of maternal education to the child including family environment and parental investments at different ages of the child we find that income effects delayed childbearing and assortative mating are likely to be important and we show that maternal education leads to substantial differences in maternal labor supply we investigate heterogeneity in returns and we present results focusing both on very early stages in the child s life as well as adolescent outcomes we present a falsification exercise to support the validity of our instruments and our results are found to be robust in a sensitivity analysis we discuss policy implications and relate our findings to intergenerational mobility

family welfare cultures strong intergenerational correlations in various types of welfare use have fuelled a long standing debate over whether welfare receipt in one generation causes welfare participation in the next generation some claim a causal relationship in welfare receipt across generations has created a culture in which welfare use reinforces itself through the family others argue the determinants of poverty or poor health are correlated across generations so that children s welfare participation is associated with but not caused by parental welfare receipt however there is little empirical evidence to sort out these claims in this paper we investigate the existence and importance of family welfare cultures in the context of norway s disability insurance di system to overcome the challenge of correlated unobservables across generations we take advantage of random assignment of judges to di applicants whose cases are initially denied some appeal judges are systematically more lenient which leads to random variation in the probability a parent will be allowed di using this exogenous variation we find strong evidence that welfare receipt in one generation causes welfare participation in the next generation when a parent is allowed di their adult child s participation over the next five years increases by 6 percentage points this effect grows over time rising to 12 percentage points after ten years while these findings are specific to our setting they serve to highlight that welfare reforms can have long lasting effects on program participation since any original effect on the current generation could be reinforced by changing the participation behavior of their children as well the detailed nature of our data allows us to compare the intergenerational transmission with spillover effects in other networks and to explore mechanisms our findings point to a special link between parents and their children with little impact due to close neighbors di participation we find suggestive evidence that what may change as a result of a parent being allowed di is their children s beliefs about the efficacy of trying to get on to the di program or their attitudes about di participation and its stigma

rich dad smart dad decomposing the intergenerational transmission of income we construct a simple model consistent with becker and tomes that decomposes the intergenerational income elasticity into the causal effect of financial resources the mechanistic transmission of human capital and the role that human capital plays in the determination of fathers permanent incomes we show how a particular set of instrumental variables could separately identify the money and human capital transmission effects using data from a 35 percent sample of swedish sons and their fathers we show that only a minority of the intergenerational income elasticity can be plausibly attributed to the causal effect of fathers financial resources

does increasing women s schooling raise the schooling of the next generation the positive cross sectional relationship between the schooling of mothers and their children is substantially biased upward due to correlations between schooling and heritable ability as well as assortative mating an increase in the schooling of women would not have beneficial effects in terms of the schooling of children increased maternal schooling leads to reduced home time for mothers anticipating the consequences of investing in women s schooling requires attention to the role that schooling plays in the marriage market as well as to opportunities in the labor market for women

how resilient is la reunion in terms of international tourism attractiveness an assessment from unit root tests with structural breaks from 1981 2015 even if local policymakers increasingly claim that tourism is one of the key factors of future economic development for the french small island la reunion international tourist arrivals are observed to be locked in a stagnation phase since the beginning of the 2000s starting from this stylised fact this article aims to study if this phenomenon results from major external events hurting this economy regularly next by using univariate unit root procedures with structural breaks we test for evidence of permanent or transitory effects of external shocks on international tourist inflows total by source markets and by category over the period 1981 2015 finally the empirical analysis allow us to reject the null of a unit root then stagnation of tourism arrivals to la reunion is not due to exogenous shocks but probably results from endogenous impediments within the domestic tourism industry and unsuitable public policies

synergy and congestion in the tourist destination life cycle abstract discussion of agglomeration and clustering in the tourist area life cycle talc literature has not led to a corresponding change of the principal equation used to formalize the model this paper proposes a modification that accounts for the synergies between the accommodation entertainment and other components of a tourist destination the modified model is contrasted with the original talc and estimated for a cross section of caribbean and other island destinations estimations based on visitor expenditures and experts evaluations of destination authenticity are compared the results illustrate how parameters representing synergy and congestion vary across tourism styles and time the implications for destination growth are illustrated by comparing the solution to the proposed model with the talc the model exposes a core dilemma that while destinations should realize positive synergies to achieve self sustaining growth with this threshold achieved the resulting pace of investment may drive destinations to overshoot and uneven growth

schooling externalities technology and productivity theory and evidence from u s states abstract the literature on schooling externalities in u s cities and states is rather mixed positive external effects of average education levels are hardly found while positive externalities from the share of college graduates are more often identified we propose a simple model to reconcile this mixed evidence our model predicts positive externalities from increased college education and negligible external effects from high school education using compulsory attendance child labor laws push driven immigration of highly educated workers and the location of land grant colleges as instruments for schooling attainments we test and confirm the model predictions with data on u s states for the period 1960 2000

the intergenerational effects of compulsory schooling this article attempts to improve our understanding of the causal processes that contribute to intergenerational immobility by exploiting historical changes in compulsory schooling laws that affected the educational attainment of parents without affecting their innate abilities or endowments we examine the influence of parental compulsory schooling on children s grade for age using the 1960 1970 and 1980 u s censuses our estimates indicate that a 1 year increase in the education of either parent reduces the probability that a child repeats a grade by between 2 and 4 percentage points

do political parties matter evidence from u s cities are cities as politically polarized as states and countries no is the answer from our regression discontinuity design analysis which shows that whether the mayor is a democrat or a republican does not affect the size of city government the allocation of local public spending or crime rates however there is a substantial incumbent effect for mayors we investigate three mechanisms that could account for the striking lack of partisan impact at the local level and find the most support for tiebout competition among localities within metropolitan areas

shocking behavior random wealth in antebellum georgia and human capital across generations does the lack of wealth constrain parents investments in the human capital of their descendants we conduct a nearly fifty year followup of an episode in which such constraints would have been plausibly relaxed by a random allocation of substantial wealth to families we track descendants of participants in georgia s cherokee land lottery of 1832 in which nearly every adult white male in georgia took part winners received close to the median level of wealth a large financial windfall orthogonal to participants underlying characteristics that might have also affected their children s human capital although winners had slightly more children than non winners they did not send them to school more sons of winners have no better adult outcomes wealth income literacy than the sons of non winners and winners grandchildren do not have higher literacy or school attendance than non winners grandchildren this suggests only a limited role for family financial resources in the formation of human capital in the next generations in this environment and a potentially more important role for other factors that persist through family lines

does education improve citizenship evidence from the united states and the united kingdom abstract many studies document an association between schooling and civic participation but none credibly investigate causal links we explore the effect of extra schooling induced through compulsory schooling laws on the likelihood of becoming politically involved in the united states and the united kingdom we find that educational attainment is related to several measures of political interest and involvement in both countries we find a strong and robust relationship between education and voting for the united states but not for the united kingdom our us results approach the uk findings when conditioning on registration possibly indicating that registration rules present a barrier to participation

old and young politicians we consider the role of a politician s age in italian municipal governments when the term limit is not binding younger mayors engage in political budget cycles more often than older mayors thus younger politicians behave more strategically in response to electoral incentives probably because they expect to have a longer political career and stronger career concerns we discuss and rule out several alternative interpretations

intergenerational transmission of education and mediating channels evidence from a compulsory schooling reform in germany in this paper i estimate the causal effect that an additional year of schooling for parents has on their children s education by exploiting a compulsory schooling reform that was implemented in all west german states between 1946 and 1969 although previous research indicates that the reform had no effect on earnings i find that an additional year of schooling for women strongly affects the education of their sons there is no effect for the other parent child gender pairs i investigate numerous channels that might mediate the positive effect of the education of mothers most importantly i find that individuals with more schooling value their children s educational success as more important

the myth of the biotech revolution an assessment of technological clinical and organisational change abstract this paper argues that despite being widely promoted by academics and consultants the empirical evidence does not support the existence of a biotech revolution nor does the data support the widely held expectations that biotechnology is having a revolutionary impact on healthcare or economic development the revolutionary model is therefore a misleading basis for policy making as it over estimates the speed and extent of any changes in productivity or the quality of therapeutics instead the evidence suggests biotechnology is following a well established incremental pattern of technological change and creative accumulation that builds upon rather than disrupts previous drug development heuristics

early late or never when does parental education impact child outcomes we estimate the causal effect of parents education on their children s education and examine the timing of the impact we identify the causal effect by exploiting the exogenous shift in parents education levels induced by the 1972 minimum school leaving age reform in england increasing parental education has a positive causal effect on children s outcomes that is evident in preschool assessments at age 4 and continues to be visible up to and including high stakes examinations taken at age 16 children of parents affected by the reform attain results around 0 1 standard deviations higher than those whose parents were not impacted

are there increasing returns to the intergenerational production of human capital information on ability and achievement test scores of sibling children many of whom had mothers who continued their schooling between births is used to test the hypothesis that maternal schooling augments the production of children s human capital that there are increasing returns to human capital estimates from models that take into account heterogeneity in maternal endowments could not reject this hypothesis and suggest benefits to postponed childbearing in particular they suggest that postponement of the initiation of childbearing by two years among women who are tenth graders would result in a 5 percent increase in their children s achievement test scores

who becomes a politician can a democracy attract competent leaders while attaining broad representation economicmodels suggest that free riding incentives and lower opportunity costs give the less competent a comparative

islam authoritarianism and female empowerment what are the linkages most islamic countries are governed by authoritarian regimes and in most islamic countries women s economic social and political rights are significantly less than those of the men of their country these well known facts provide the basis for a highly original and important analysis by m steven fish 1 fish s major contribution is his suggestion that the relationships at issue are not merely a matter of spurious correlation but rather are indicative of a deep underlying causal pattern in a sophisticated cross national quantitative analysis he shows the following 1 even controlling for many other alleged influences on countries political systems countries with a largely islamic religious tradition have significantly more autocratic governments than do non islamic countries 2 controlling for level of economic development the condition of women is significantly worse in islamic countries than in others 3 in a more limited test even when controlling for economic development and islamic tradition a low level of women s rights may produce lower levels of democracy 4 more speculatively islamic states may be more autocratic so as to repress women s rights more effectively or autocratic government may permit and even require the repression of a range of human rights including those of women

does compulsory school attendance affect schooling and earnings we establish that season of birth is related to educational attainment because of school start age policy and compulsory school attendance laws individuals born in the beginning of the year start school at an older age and can therefore drop out after completing less schooling than individuals born near the end of the year roughly 25 percent of potential dropouts remain in school because of compulsory schooling laws we estimate the impact of compulsory schooling on earnings by using quarter of birth as an instrument for education the instrumental variables estimate of the return to education is close to the ordinary least squares estimate suggesting that there is little bias in conventional estimates every developed country in the world has a compulsory schooling requirement yet little is known about the effect these laws have on educational attainment and earnings 1 this paper exploits an unusual natural experiment to estimate the impact of compulsory schooling laws in the united states the experiment stems from the fact that children born in different months of the year start school at different ages while compulsory schooling laws generally require students to remain in school until their sixteenth or seventeenth birthday in effect the interaction of school entry requirements and compulsory schooling laws compel students born

religion and economy religion has a two way interaction with political economy with religion viewed as a dependent variable a central question is how economic development and political institutions affect religious participation and beliefs with religion viewed as an independent variable a key issue is how religiosity affects individual characteristics such as work ethic honesty and thrift and thereby influences economic performance in this paper we sketch previous studies of this two way interaction but focus on our ongoing quantitative research with international data

intergenerational transmission of human capital is it a one way street studies on the intergenerational transmission of human capital usually assume a one way spillover from parents to children however children may also affect their parents human capital using exogenous variation in education arising from a swedish compulsory schooling reform in the 1950s and 1960s we address this question by studying the causal effect of children s schooling on their parents longevity we first replicate previous findings of a positive and significant cross sectional relationship between children s education and their parents longevity our instrumental variables estimates are not statistically different from zero however they hide substantial heterogeneity by the gender of the child and the parent female schooling is found to affect longevity of fathers and especially those from low socio economic background taken together our results point to the importance of daughters schooling for parental health and to the importance of considering heterogeneous impacts

precision guided or blunt the effects of us economic sanctions on human rights this study analyzes the consequences of economic sanctions for the target country s human rights situation we offer a political economy explanation for different types of human rights infringements or improvements in reaction to economic shocks caused by sanctions based on that explanation we derive hypotheses linking sanctions to four types of human rights economic rights political and civil rights basic human rights and emancipatory rights we use endogenous treatment regression models to test those hypotheses by estimating the causal average treatment effect of us economic sanctions on each type of human rights within a uniform empirical framework unlike previous studies we find no support for adverse effects of sanctions on economic rights or basic human rights once the endogenous selection of sanctioned countries is modelled with respect to women s rights our findings even indicate a positive effect of sanctions that is associated with improvements in women s economic rights only our results for political rights and civil liberties suggest significant deterioration under economic sanctions we conclude that it is important to account for the potential endogeneity of economic sanctions and to distinguish different dimensions of human rights as the effects of economic sanctions along those dimensions may vary considerably

long run impacts of intergovernmental transfers this paper provides regression discontinuity evidence on the long run impacts of a temporary increase in federal transfers to local governments in brazil revenues and expenditures of the communities benefiting from extra transfers increased by about 20 percent during the 4 year period from 1982 to the end of 1985 previously established schooling and literacy gains of school age cohorts as well as reduced poverty in the community overall as of 1991 are generally attenuated but persist in 2000 by 2010 the estimated education and income gains are still positive but typically cannot be distinguished from zero children and adolescents of the next generation born after the extra funding had disappeared show gains of about 0 06 to 0 10 standard deviation across the entire score distribution of two nationwide exams at the end of the 2000s available evidence on mechanisms points to a persistent reduction of the student teacher ratio in local public primary schools throughout the 1990s and 2000s we also find discontinuities in education levels and incomes of test takers parents that are consistent with intergenerational human capital spillovers

do voters affect or elect policies evidence from the u s house there are two fundamentally different views of the role of elections in policy formation in one view voters can affect candidates policy choices competition for votes induces politicians to move toward the center in this view elections have the effect of bringing about some degree of policy compromise in the alternative view voters merely elect policies politicians cannot make credible promises to moderate their policies and elections are merely a means to decide which one of two opposing policy views will be implemented we assess which of these contrasting perspectives is more empirically relevant for the u s house focusing on elections decided by a narrow margin allows us to generate quasi experimental estimates of the impact of a randomized change in electoral strength on subsequent representatives roll call voting records we find that voters merely elect policies the degree of electoral strength has no effect on a legislator s voting behavior for example a large exogenous increase in electoral strength for the democratic party in a district does not result in shifting both parties nominees to the left politicians inability to credibly commit to a compromise appears to dominate any competition induced convergence in policy

the multidimensional effects of religion on socioeconomic development a review of the empirical literature religion plays a fundamental role in most people s lives with profound implications for socioeconomic development this survey provides a comprehensive and systematic overview of the causal mechanisms between religion and development discussed and tested in the economics literature and reviews quantitative empirical evidence on the actual effects of religion on economic and social dimensions of development we start by disaggregating the concept of religion into four religious dimensions and propose a framework to conceptualize causal mechanisms numerous mechanisms are possible but only a few uncontested findings exist religion is ambivalent vis a vis development although religious ideas can foster certain forms of human capital acquisition and labor market participation scholars have found a negative relationship between religious dimensions and both income and gender equality as well as innovation activities religious identity is also a source of labor market discrimination and has ambivalent effects on economic growth and social cohesion methodological challenges refer to the availability of fine grained data especially for developing countries the use of concepts and definitions and the lack of causal inference

is extending compulsory schooling alone enough to raise earnings evidence from french and british compulsory schooling laws in this paper i compare two reforms that raised the minimum school leaving age to 16 in france 1967 and in england and wales 1972 using a regression discontinuity design i find that while the reform in england and wales led to a 6 7 percent increase in hourly wages per additional year of compulsory schooling the impact of the change to french law was close to zero the results suggest that the major difference between the two reforms was that the fraction of individuals holding no qualifications dropped sharply after the introduction of the new minimum school leaving age in england and wales whereas it remained unchanged in france

priceless the nonpecuniary benefits of schooling copyright 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 by the american economic association permission to make digital or hard copies of part or all of american economic association publications for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not distributed for profit or direct commercial advantage and that copies show this notice on the first page or initial screen of a display along with the full citation including the name of the author copyrights for components of this work owned by others than aea must be honored abstracting with credit is permitted the author has the right to republish post on servers redistribute to lists and use any component of this work in other works for others to do so requires prior specific permission and or a fee permissions may be requested from the american economic association administrative office by going to the contact us form and choosing copyright permissions request from the menu copyright 2016 aea

endowments and the allocation of schooling in the family and in the marriage market the twins experiment 03 we show how comparisons between the within twin correlations of human capital outcomes across identical and nonidentical twins can be used to identify the variability in the individual specific component of endowments and the responsiveness of schooling to individual specific endowments in the family and in the marriage market even when schooling is measured with error estimates from two twins samples indicate that 27 42 percent of the variance in log earnings obesity is due to variability in individual specific endowments allocations of schooling reinforce specific endowments and individual specific earnings endowments of men and their wives schooling are negatively associated

securing a bioenergy future without imports the uk has legally binding renewable energy and greenhouse gas targets energy from biomass is anticipated to make major contributions to these however there are concerns about the availability and sustainability of biomass for the bioenergy sector a biomass resource model has been developed that reflects the key biomass supply chain dynamics and interactions determining resource availability taking into account climate food land and other constraints the model has been applied to the uk developing four biomass resource scenarios to analyse resource availability and energy generation potential within different contexts the model shows that indigenous biomass resources and energy crops could service up to 44 of uk energy demand by 2050 without impacting food systems the scenarios show residues from agriculture forestry and industry provide the most robust resource potentially providing up to 6 5 of primary energy demand by 2050 waste resources are found to potentially provide up to 15 4 and specifically grown biomass and energy crops up to 22 of demand the uk is therefore projected to have significant indigenous biomass resources to meet its targets however the dominant biomass resource opportunities identified in the paper are not consistent with current uk bioenergy strategies risking biomass deficit despite resource abundance

the resort development spectrum a new approach to modeling resort development abstract the role of the market has been largely ignored in existing research into the development of resort areas this paper argues that a new approach to the issue of resort development is required and proposes a new model the resort development spectrum the model is based on the operation of the market specifically focusing on the operation of the supply side tourism development in resort areas is found to occur in four phases commencing with local tourism and concluding with a fourth phase where the resort develops a strong international profile a possible fifth phase of decline stagnation or rejuvenation is also postulated the model does not find that growth is automatic or even sequential through the phases a major feature of the model is its ability to be operationalised through the use of scenario generation and multiplier analysis although these aspects of the model are not developed in this paper

corruption and local democratization in indonesia the role of islamic parties indonesia has a tradition of corruption among local officials who harass and collect bribes from firms this paper examines whether corruption is affected by local democratization and by the party composition of local assemblies democratization occurred in 1999 and decentralization in 2001 we have firm level data for 2001 and 2004 the 2001 data benchmark corruption at the time of decentralization we find that corruption declines between 2001 and 2004 overall but much less so in districts with more secular party as opposed to islamic party representatives in district assemblies for a larger sample of districts correspondingly we find that corruption in 2004 is more in districts which voted more in favor of secular party representatives in the first elections in 1999 we argue that the effects seem to be causal over above any effects of changing religiosity and economic circumstances across districts

the effects of education on fertility evidence from taiwan this study investigates the impact of women s education on fertility for identification we use the 1968 compulsory education law change in taiwan which generated a regression discontinuity design rdd setting we use the whole population of women from the 1980 and 2010 population censuses results of our rdd estimation using the exact date of birth suggest that the law change was effective in boosting women s education but it did not have any impact on fertility this is in stark contrast to most previous studies using only the birth year as the running variable or using it to construct instruments which find that women s education depresses fertility this study demonstrates that using a discrete running variable in rdd may generate a false discontinuity for an otherwise continuous regression function jel j13 c21 i2

single party rule public spending and political rents evidence from finnish municipalities in this paper i investigate the differences in public spending and extraction of political rents between single party and coalition governments common pool theories predict that coalitions tend t

the intergenerational effects of parental higher education evidence from changes in university accessibility abstract we examine the causal relationship between the educational attainment of parents and that of their children using quasi experimental variation from changes in parents access to university generated by the geographical expansion of the finnish university system between the late 1950s and early 1970s our results suggest that for the children of parents affected by the changes in university accessibility there is a strong positive spillover effect of around 0 5 from parent s to child s attained years of education our analyses using alternative parental and child outcomes suggest that the effect of parental education is partly driven by assortative mating and may also be related to children s improved school performance

education and household welfare abstractusing census data from nepal we examine how the partial derivatives of predicted household welfare vary with parental education we focus on fertility child survival schooling and child labor female education is not as strongly associated with beneficial outcomes as is often assumed male education often matters more and part of the association between female education and welfare is driven by marriage market matching with more educated men controlling for the average education of parental cohorts does not change this finding but when we use educational rank to proxy for unobserved ability and family background the positive association between female education and beneficial outcomes becomes weaker or is reversed for women the association between educational rank and outcomes is strong women who obtain more schooling than their peers in school have fewer children and educate them better in contrast for men the statistical association between education and household welfare remains str

school entry policies and skill accumulation across directly and indirectly affected individuals during the past half century there has been a trend toward increasing the minimum age a child must reach before entering school in the united states states have accomplished this by moving the school entry cutoff date earlier in the school year the evidence presented in this paper shows that these law changes increased human capital accumulation and hence adult wages backing up the cutoff by one month increases average male hourly earnings by approximately 0 6 percent the evidence also suggests that the majority of the cohort benefits from backing up the cutoff not just those who must delay entry

vive la revolution long term educational returns of 1968 to the angry students the famous events of may 1968 starting with student riots threw france into a state of turmoil as a result normal examination procedures were abandoned and the pass rate for various qualifications increased enormously the lowering of thresholds at critical stages of the education system enabled a proportion of students to pursue more years of higher education than would otherwise have been possible for those on the margin of passing their examinations additional years of higher education increased future wages and occupational levels interestingly the effect is also transmitted across generations and is reflected in the educational performance of children

biotechnology as a new techno economic paradigm that will help drive the world economy and mitigate climate change abstract a techno economic paradigm embraces a whole constellation of technically and economically interrelated innovations and influences most industries and an entire phase of economic development its full potential to drive and shape economic growth can only be realized after far reaching reforms have been made in the socio institutional frameworks of major economies and the world economy in close association with ict biotechnology or the trio of biotechnologies red biomedicine green plant breeding and white industrial is now capable of such a role although the necessary reforms remain to be made this paper shows how far and in what sense it has reached technological maturity and what mismatches between it and the socio institutional framework are obstructing its further development and diffusion it argues that biotechnology green and white is needed to play a key role in the struggle against climate change which in turn can be expected to draw out its potential

the shattered iron rice bowl intergenerational effects of chinese state owned enterprise reform reform of the chinese state owned enterprise soe sector in the late 1990s triggered massive layoffs 34 million employees and marked the end of the iron rice bowl guarantee of employment security for the remaining 67 million workers an expanding international literature has documented the adverse health impacts of economic insecurity on adults but has typically neglected children this paper uses the natural experiment of soe reform to explore the causal relationship between increased parental economic insecurity and children s bmi z score using province year level layoff rates and income loss from the layoffs we estimate a generalised difference in differences model with child fixed effects and year fixed effects for a medium build 10 year old boy a median treatment effect implies a gain of 1 8 kg and a 2 2 percentage point increase in the overweight rate due to the reform anxiety about potential losses causes weight gain for boys whose soe parents kept their jobs unconditional quantile regressions suggest that boys who are heavier are more likely to gain weight girls are not significantly affected intergenerational effects therefore increase the estimated public health costs of greater economic insecurity

the impact of family income on child achievement evidence from the earned income tax credit using an instrumental variables strategy we estimate the causal effect of income on children s math and reading achievement our identification derives from the large nonlinear changes in the earned income tax credit the largest of these changes increased family income by as much as 20 percent or approximately 2 100 between 1993 and 1997 our baseline estimates imply that a 1 000 increase in income raises combined math and reading test scores by 6 percent of a standard deviation in the short run test gains are larger for children from disadvantaged families and robust to a variety of alternative specifications jel h24 h31 i21 i38 j13

forced to be rich returns to compulsory schooling in britain do students benefit from compulsory schooling in an important article oreopoulos 2006 studied the 1947 british compulsory schooling law change and found large returns to schooling of about 15 using the general household survey ghs re analysing this dataset we find much smaller returns of about 3 on average with no evidence of any positive return for women and a return for men of 4 7 additionally we utilise the new earnings survey panel data set nespd that has earnings information superior to that in the ghs and find similar estimates zero returns for women and returns of 3 to 4 for men