the economics of a blend mandate for biofuels a biofuel blend mandate may increase or decrease consumer fuel prices with endogenous oil prices depending on relative supply elasticities biofuel tax credits always reduce fuel prices tax credits result in lower fuel prices than under a mandate for the same level of biofuel production if tax credits are implemented alongside mandates then tax credits subsidize fuel consumption instead of biofuels this contradicts energy policy goals by increasing oil dependency co 2 emissions and traffic congestion while providing little benefit to either corn or ethanol producers these social costs will be substantial with tax credits costing taxpayers 28 7 billion annually by 2022 copyright 2008 oxford university press

beyond gdp the quest for a measure of social welfare this paper critically examines the various approaches to the measurement of individual well being and social welfare that have been considered for the construction of alternatives to gdp special attention is devoted to recent developments in the analysis of sustainability in the study of happiness in the theory of social choice and fair allocation and in the capability approach it is suggested in the conclusion that although convergence toward a consensual approach is not impossible for the moment not one but three alternatives to gdp are worth developing jel i31 e23 e01

statistical efficiency of double bounded dichotomous choice contingent valuation the statistical efficiency of conventional dichotomous choice contingent valuation surveys can be improved by asking each respondent a second dichotomous choice question which depends on the response to the first question if the first response is yes the second bid is some amount greater than the first bid while if the first response is no the second bid is some amount smaller this double bounded approach is shown to be asymptotically more efficient than the conventional singlebounded approach using data from a survey of californians regarding their willingness to pay for wetlands in the san joaquin valley we show that in a finite sample the gain in efficiency can be very substantial

implications of bid design and willingness to pay distribution for starting point bias in double bounded dichotomous choice contingent valuation surveys we examine starting point bias in double bounded dichotomous choice contingent valuation surveys we investigate 1 the seriousness of the biases for the location and scale parameters of the willingness to pay wtp in the presence of starting point bias 2 whether or not these biases depend on the distribution of wtp and on the bid design and 3 how well a commonly used diagnostic for starting point bias a test of the null that bid set dummies entered in the right hand side of the wtp model are jointly equal to zero performs under various circumstances monte carlo simulations suggest that the effect of ignoring starting point bias depends on the bid design and on the true distribution of wtp a well balanced symmetric bid design may result in very modest biases even when the anchoring mechanism is very strong the power of bid set dummies in detecting starting point bias is low they tend to account for misspecifications in the distribution assumed by the researcher for the latent wtp rather than capturing the presence of starting point bias

for better or for worse till the human development index do us part abstract this paper describes the results of research intended to explore the volatility inherent in the united nations development programme s undp human development index hdi the hdi is intended to be a simple and transparent device for comparing progress in human development and is an aggregate of life expectancy education and gdp per capita values of the hdi for each country are presented in the human development reports hdrs the first being published in 1990 however while the methodology is consistent for all countries in each year there are notable differences between years that make temporal comparisons of progress difficult the paper presents the results of recalculating the hdi for a simplified sample of 114 countries using various methodologies employed by the undp the results are a set of deviations of recalculated hdi ranks compared to the original ranks given in the hdrs the volatility that can result from such recalculation is shown to be substantial 10 15 ranks yet reports in the popular press are frequently sensitive to movements of only a few ranks such movement can easily be accounted for by changes in the hdi methodology rather than genuine progress in human development while the hdrs often carry warnings about the inadvisability of such year on year comparisons it is argued that the existence of such a high profile index and the overt presentation within league tables do encourage such comparison assuming that the hdi will be retained as a focal point within the hdrs then it is suggested that greater focus be upon more meaningful and robust categories of human development e g low medium and high rather than league tables where shifts of a few places perhaps as a result of nothing more than a methodological or data artefact may be highlighted in the press and by policy makers

troubling tradeoffs in the human development index the 20th human development report has introduced a new version of its famous human development index hdi the hdi aggregates country level attainments in life expectancy schooling and income per capita each year s rankings by the hdi are keenly watched in both rich and poor countries the main change in the 2010 hdi is that it relaxes its past assumption of perfect substitutability between its three components however most users will probably not realize that the new hdi has also greatly reduced its implicit weight on longevity in poor countries relative to rich ones a poor country experiencing falling life expectancy due to say a collapse in its health care system could still see its hdi improve with even a small rate of economic growth by contrast the new hdi s valuations of the gains from extra schooling seem unreasonably high many times greater than the economic returns to schooling these troubling tradeoffs could have been largely avoided using a different aggregation function for the hdi while still allowing imperfect substitution while some difficult value judgments are faced in constructing and assessing the hdi making its assumed tradeoffs more explicit would be a welcome step

economic and other determinants of infant and child mortality in small developing countries the case of central america and the caribbean inter country differences in infant and child mortality are explained by looking at demographic economic health and educational factors a model is presented in which the infant mortality rate the child mortality rate and the birth rate are endogenous the model is tested using cross national multiple regression analysis and simulations the presence of simultaneity is confirmed introducing non economic factors transforms the character of the relationship between exogenous and endogenous variables from a diminishing returns to an increasing returns one the role played by public expenditure in education vaccination coverage low birth weight female schooling number of nurses access to safe water or malnutrition can be assessed as well as that played by structural adjustment variables such as the inflation rate or the external debt to gnp ratio infant and child mortality can be diminished everywhere in the region with relatively small amounts of expenditure disappointing outcomes in som

social indicators and comparisons of living standards abstract construction of an international index of standards of living incorporating social indicators and economic output typically involves scaling and weighting procedures that lack welfare economic foundations revealed preference axioms can be used to make quality of life comparisons if we can estimate the representative household s production technology for the social indicators this method is applied to comparisons of gross domestic product gdp and life expectancy for 58 countries neither gdp rankings nor the rankings of the human development index hdi are consistent with the partial ordering of revealed preference a method of constructing a utility consistent index incorporating both consumption and life expectancy is suggested

a human development index by income groups summary one of the most frequent critiques of the hdi is that it does not take into account inequality within countries we suggest a methodology which allows to compute the three components and the overall hdi for quintiles of the income distribution this allows comparisons of the level in human development of the poor and non poor within and across countries an empirical illustration shows large discrepancies in human development within the countries especially in africa these discrepancies are lower the higher the hdi is but only weakly so inequality in income is generally higher than inequality in education and life expectancy

sequence effects in the valuation of multiple environmental programs using the contingent valuation method in contingent valuation the willingness to pay for hypothetical programs may be affected by the order in which programs are presented to respondents with inclusive lists economic theory suggests that sequence effects should be expected however when policy makers allocate public budgets to several environmental programs they may be interested in assessing the value of the programs without the valuations being affected by the order in which the programs are presented using single bounded dichotomous choice contingent valuation questions we show that if respondents have the possibility to revise their willingness to pay answers sequence effects are mitigated

preference anomalies preference elicitation and the discovered preference hypothesis there is wide ranging evidence much of it deriving from economics experiments of anomalies in behaviour that challenge standard preference theories this paper explores the implications of these anomalies for preference elicitation methods because methods that are used to inform public policy such as contingent valuation are based on standard preference theories their validity may be called into question by the anomaly data however on a new interpretation these anomalies do not contradict standard theory but are errors in stated preference that can be expected to disappear as people become more experienced in relevant decision environments we explore the evidence for this interpretation and what implications follow for preference elicitation methodology

undp s gender related indices a critical review abstract this paper critically reviews the two gender related indices proposed by undp in the 1995 human development report the gender related development index gdi and the gender empowerment measure gem while supporting the need to develop indicators that reliably track women s empowerment gem as well as the impact of gender inequality on overall human development gdi we argue that the particular ways in which these indices were constructed and the assumptions made to overcome data gaps severely limit their usefulness and result in very misleading international comparisons wherever appropriate we suggest remedies for some of the shortcomings identified

income inequality and health status in the united states evidence from the current population survey several recent studies have identified an association between income inequality and aggregate health outcomes this has been taken to be evidence that inequality is detrimental to individual health we use data from the 1995 99 march current population survey to examine the effect of income inequality on individual health status for both the general population and those individuals in poverty we find no consistent association between income inequality and individual health status our results contradict recent claims that the psychosocial effects of income inequality have dramatic consequences for individual health outcomes

ordering anomalies in choice experiments this paper investigates whether responses to choice experiments ces are subject to ordering anomalies while previous research has focussed on the possibility that such anomalies relate to position in the sequence of choice tasks our research reveals that the particular order of tasks matters using a novel experimental design that allows us to test our hypotheses using simple nonparametric statistics we observe ordering anomalies in ce data similar to those recorded in the dichotomous choice contingent valuation literature those ordering effects operate in both price and commodity dimensions and are observed to compound over a series of choice tasks our findings cast serious doubt on the current practice of asking each respondent to undertake several choice tasks in a ce while treating each response as an independent observation on that individual s preferences

making development simple the genetic deterministic hypothesis for economic development abstract this paper discusses the dangers inherent in attempting to simplify something as complex as development it does this by exploring the lynn and vanhanen theory of deterministic development which asserts that varying levels of economic development seen between countries can be explained by differences in national intelligence national iq assuming that intelligence is genetically determined and as different races have been shown to have different iq then they argue that economic development measured as gdp capita is largely a function of race and interventions to address imbalances can only have a limited impact the paper presents the lynne and vanhanen case and critically discusses the data and analyses linear regression upon which it is based it also extends the cause effect basis of lynne and vanhanen s theory for economic development into human development by using the human development index hdi it is argued that while there is nothing mathematically incorrect with their calculations there are concerns over the data they employ even more fundamentally it is argued that statistically significant correlations between the various components of the hdi and national iq can occur via a host of cause effect pathways and hence the genetic determinism theory is far from proven the paper ends by discussing the dangers involved in the use of over simplistic measures of development as a means of exploring cause effect relationships while the creators of development indices such as the hdi have good intentions simplistic indices can encourage simplistic explanations of under development

household willingness to pay for expanding fuel cell power generation in korea a view from co2 emissions reduction abstract the fuel cell fc is accepted as the state of the art instrument for reducing co2 emissions in the field of power generation in korea therefore the korean government has planned to expand fc power generation from 565 gwh in 2013 to 13 449 gwh by 2027 this article aims to assess the public value or acceptability of this expansion in terms of reducing co2 emissions to this end we derive the public s additional willingness to pay wtp for the expansion using a contingent valuation survey of 1000 korean households for the purpose of mitigating the response effect in eliciting their wtp and increasing statistical efficiency in analyzing the wtp data we employ a one and one half bounded dichotomous choice question format furthermore we use the spike model so as to model zero wtp responses the mean additional monthly wtp for the expansion is computed to be krw 1407 usd 1 37 per household expanding the value to the national population gives us krw 310 5 billion usd 304 4 million per year we can conclude that korean households are ready to shoulder some of the financial burden of expanding fc power generation to reduce co2 emissions

substitution effects in the valuation of multiple environmental programs abstract a theoretical framework for understanding substitution and complementary effects between environmental programs is derived a multiple program valuation function is specified and its structure analyzed a maximum likelihood estimator is derived to estimate the parameters of the valuation function using referendum type contingent valuation data the empirical analysis shows that the conventional benefit aggregation approach of independent valuation and summation overstates the benefits of two and three program policies by an average of 24 and 54 respectively

vulnerability and resilience determinants of under five mortality changes in zambia summary in zambia under five mortality declined from 1958 to 1975 rose from 1975 to 1992 before resuming its decline from 1992 to 2001 the study investigates the economic political and epidemiologic determinants of these changes the rise in mortality could be explained by an economic downturn declining income per capita resulting from lower copper prices on international markets and decreasing production and its numerous consequences and to a lesser extent by emerging diseases increasing mortality from hiv aids and resistant malaria however mortality decline could resume as a result of building social and health capital in particular health personnel and favorable health policies

the rise and fall of bioenergy abstract if bioenergy has a less negative impact on the climate than fossil energy it may be optimal to have a significant increase in the use of bioenergy over time due to the difference in the way the climate is affected by the two types of energy the future time path of the use of bioenergy may be non monotonic it may be optimal to first have an increase in its use and later a reduction optimal taxes subsidies are derived both for the first best case and for the case of a constraint on the size of the fossil tax

improving human development a long run view abstract the pessimistic flavour of the human development reports appears to be in contradiction with their own numbers as developing countries fare comparatively better in human development than in per capita gdp terms this paper attempts to bridge this gap by providing a new improved human development index ihdi informed by welfare economics the ihdi is presented here alongside the united nations development programme s undp hdi for the world and its main regions since the late 19th century social dimensions in the ihdi are derived following kakwani journal of development economics 41 1993 pp 307 336 with a convex achievement function whereas a geometric average is employed to combine its dimensions longevity knowledge and income thus the ihdi does not conceal the gap between rich and poor countries and casts a much less optimistic view than the conventional undp index while it fits with the undp concern for international differences the paper s findings highlight main weaknesses in human development dimensions of present day developing countries

does britain or the united states have the right gasoline tax this paper develops an analytical framework to assess the second best optimal level of gasoline taxation taking into account unpriced pollution congestion and accident externalities as well as interactions with the broader fiscal system we provide calculations of the optimal taxes for the us and the uk under a variety of parameter scenarios under our central parameter values the second best optimal gasoline tax is 1 01 gal for the us and 1 34 gal for the uk current tax rates are much lower than this in the us and higher in the uk the calculations are moderately sensitive to alternative parameter assumptions the congestion externality is the largest component in both nations revenue raising needs also play a significant role as do accident externalities and local air pollution potential welfare gains from reducing the current uk tax rate are estimated at nearly one fourth the production cost of all gasoline used in the uk even larger gains could be achieved by switching to a tax on vehicle miles with equal revenue yield for the us the welfare gains from optimizing the gasoline tax are smaller but those from switching to an optimal tax on vehicle miles are very large

how are we doing on poverty and hunger reduction a new measure of country performance abstract the paper presents a new composite indicator the poverty and hunger index phi to measure countries performance toward achieving millennium development goal no 1 mdg1 on halving poverty and hunger by 2015 building on the statistical structure of the human development index the phi combines all five official mdg1 indicators thereby generating insights on a country s net progress towards its own goal as opposed to progress measured by a single yardstick nonparametric analysis on the phi components provides further evidence on the nature of the relationship between poverty and hunger measures while cross country results show significant variance in progress between and within regions an extension of the phi allows for consideration of the rate of progress made by each country in its own terms that is based on where it needs to be to attain all 5 mdg1 targets by 2015 countries needing priority attention are identified as well as areas for future research and recommendations for post 2015 initiatives

plausible responsiveness to scope in contingent valuation plausible responsiveness to scope is a question of economic significance in addition to statistical significance of the scope test in contingent valuation we briefly review the history of the scope test in order to place the current issue in the context of the bp deepwater horizon oil spill as a result of the review we gain insights into how the issue of scope adequacy arose twenty years after it was first mentioned by the noaa panel on contingent valuation following the exxon valdez oil spill we then provide a review of desvousges mathews and train 2012 who promote the adding up test to identify inadequate responsiveness to scope adequacy the adding up test is a test of the construct validity of the contingent valuation method but is flawed as a measure of economic significance we propose scope elasticity of willingness to pay as a measure of economic significance a simulation suggests a likely range of elasticity estimates given linear and quadratic functional forms for the willingness to pay function in order to illustrate the ease of implementation of scope elasticity within the context of the standard scope test we calculate scope elasticity with willingness to pay estimates from several studies describe two studies that directly estimate scope elasticity and estimate scope elasticity with primary data from two studies all of these empirical estimates of scope elasticity fall within the range of scope elasticity suggested by the simulation scope elasticity provides a practical way forward relative to the adding up test on the issue of economic significance of scope effects

the human development index a critical review since 1990 the united nations development programme undp has published a series of annual human development reports hdrs in which the human development index hdi is computed for each country this index has become an important alternative to the traditional unidimensional measure of development i e the gross domestic product although the index still fails to include any ecological considerations it has broadened the discussion surrounding the evaluation of development unfortunately over the years the hdrs seem to have become stagnant repeating the same rhetoric without necessarily increasing the hdi s utility this paper evaluates how well these reports have lived up to their own conceptual mandate and assesses the ability of the hdi to further the development debate we find that the reports have lost touch with their original vision and the index fails to capture the essence of the world it seeks to portray in addition the index focuses almost exclusively on national performance and ranking but does not pay much attention to development from a global perspective we propose the incorporation of three simple modifications for the index as a first step to overcome these shortcomings 1998 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

fat tails and truncated bids in contingent valuation an application to an endangered shorebird species a yes response function in a contingent valuation study is said to have fat tails if it has a high and slowly declining yes response rate at high bid levels truncated bids refer to the practice of dropping high bid offers before a yes response rate of near zero is reached this is a common practice in contingent valuation we explore the extent and implications of fat tails and truncated bids in a study of an endangered shorebird species we find among other things that mean willingness to pay is quite sensitive to the highest bid offered so much so that the choice of highest bid nearly dictates outcomes

human development means and ends from growth to basic needs sometimes the change in the fashions of thinking about development appears like a comedy of errors a lurching from one fad to another economic growth employment creation jobs and justice redistribution with growth basic needs bottom up development participatory development sustainable development market friendly development liberation liberalisation human development thus goes the carousel of the slogans but this would not be a correct record there has been an evolution in our thinking about development both internal logic and new evidence have led to the revision of our views previous and partly discarded approaches have taught us much that is still valuable and our current approach will surely be subject to criticisms a brief survey of the evolution of our thinking may be helpful the discussion started in the 1950s influenced by arthur lewis 1955 and others who emphasised economic growth as the key to poverty eradication even at this early stage sensible economists and development planners were quite clear in spite of what is now often said in caricature of past thought that economic growth is not an end in itself but a performance test of development arthur lewis defined the purpose of development as widening our range of choice exactly as the human development reports of the united nations development programme do today three justifications were given for the emphasis on growth as the principal performance test one justification assumed that through market forces such as the rising demand for labour rising productivity rising wages lower prices of the goods bought by the people economic growth would spread its benefits widely and speedily and that these benefits are best achieved through growth even in the early days some sceptics said that growth is not necessarily so benign they maintained that in certain conditions such as increasing returns restrictions to entry monopoly power unequal distribution of income and assets growth gives to those who already have it tends to concentrate income and wealth in the hands of the few this is where the second assumption came in it was that governments especially democratic ones are concerned with the fate of the poor therefore progressive taxation social services and other government interventions would

striking at the roots of crime the impact of welfare spending on crime during the great depression abstractduring the great depression contemporaries worried that people hit by hard times would resort to crime president franklin roosevelt argued that the massive government relief efforts struck at the roots of crime by providing subsistence income to needy families after constructing a panel data set for 81 large american cities for the years 1930 40 we estimate the effect of relief spending by all levels of government on crime rates the analysis suggests that a 10 percent increase in relief spending during the 1930s reduced property crime by roughly 1 5 percent by limiting the amount of relief recipients free time work relief may have been more effective than direct relief in reducing crime more generally our results indicate that social insurance which tends to be understudied in economic analyses of crime should be more explicitly and more carefully incorporated into the analysis of temporal and spatial variations in criminal activity

microfinance and child mortality microfinance institutions mfis offer targeted opportunities for the poor to generate additional income with a range of financial services including credit insurance savings accounts and money t

sequencing and valuing public goods abstract this paper establishes several propositions concerning the importance of context in valuing public goods it first provides necessary and sufficient conditions for the value of a public good to be independent of context utility constant valuation sequences are considered where public goods are systematically made available or taken away for the case of strict hicksian substitutes willingness to pay for an increase in one of the public goods is strictly decreasing the farther out in a sequence it is valued for the destruction of public goods the reverse is true for willingness to accept compensation sequencing has opposite implications for the assessment of the benefits of providing public goods than for the assessment of the damage from destroying them

the evolution of world inequality in well being in this paper we use the tools offered by the recent literature on multidimensional inequality measurement to investigate the evolution of the inequality in well being across different countries during 1975 2000 we focus on three important dimensions of life standard of living health and education inequality in the three dimensions shows a different trend during 1975 2000 we propose a flexible measure of well being to quantify the evolution of overall intercountry well being inequality the empirical results are sensitive to different normative choices on the trade offs between the different dimensions especially the concave transformation of income turns out to be decisive for the evolution of world inequality in well being

good and bad growth the human development reports abstract the 1996 human development report undp 1996 is about economic growth and human development in keeping with past reports in the series it emphasizes the diversity of country performance in improving human development indicators at given rates of growth this article reviews what the human development reports have said on this topic looking at how well the main messages have been supported by data and analysis and how compelling they are as a basis for public action

on visible choice sets and scope sensitivity abstract in this paper we argue that the burgeoning empirical debate over scope sensitivity within contingent valuation studies is fundamentally incomplete in that it has neglected a systematic examination of certain effects of study design upon observed scope sensitivity in particular we highlight the fact that in certain study designs the choice set initially offered or visible to respondents is changed in a stepwise manner as they progress through a valuation exercise while other designs involve advance disclosure regarding the full extent of the final visible choice set prior to any choices or values being elicited the issue of changes in the visible choice set is alluded to by smith j environ econom manage 22 1 71 who identifies this as a primary challenge to kahneman and knetsch s j environ econom manage 22 1 57 well known experimental results kahneman and knetsch contend that it seems highly implausible that this minor procedural change would significantly alter results p 61 but do not test this assertion we present experimental and field tests of the impact upon contingent values of varying the visible choice set through stepwise and advance disclosure these dimensions of design are interacted with changes in the order in which nested goods are presented bottom up versus top down when a stepwise disclosure procedure is adopted the observed scope sensitivity is substantially and significantly affected by the order in which goods are presented but such procedural variance is not observed within advance disclosure designs conjectures regarding the origin and implications of such findings are presented

sequencing and nesting in contingent valuation surveys abstract the term embedding is ill defined and has been applied to distinct phenomena some predicted by economic theory and others not this paper lays out a theoretical framework for looking at these phenomena and provides a set of well defined terms included is a discussion of survey design problems which may induce spurious evidence in favor of the hypothesis that respondents are insensitive to the scope of the good being valued an empirical example of the component sensitivity is provided this test rejects the hypothesis that respondents are insensitive to the scope of the good being valued

human development in poor countries on the role of private incomes and public services development is often taken to mean rising incomes discussions of the goals of development now often emphasize the reduction of poverty rather than raising average incomes per se the role of social services particularly basic health and education has also received greater emphasis in the 1980s viewed mainly as instruments for raising the incomes of the poor but in all these approaches income growth of one sort or another is what development is all about a rather different view of the meaning of development has recently found expression in the 1990 human development report hrd produced by the united nations development programme a conceptual underpinning for this approach can be found in the work of amartya sen the essence of this view is that human development what people can actually do and be is the overriding purpose of economic development underdevelopment is viewed as the lack of certain basic capabilities rather than lack of income per se we do not aim here to advocate one of these approaches over the other but rather to explore their implications for development policy for instance what does the human development approach imply about the role of economic growth and in particular about reducing income poverty should development priorities shift toward the provision of public services in poor countries even if such a shift is at the expense of income growth

joint estimation of contingent valuation survey responses hanemann s utility difference model for the dichotomous choice contingent valuation method is modified to account for interrelationships between responses to a set of contingent valuation questions a nonlinear seemingly unrelated regression model is presented to jointly estimate the probit models and to derive wtp from the cv responses the model is used to test and impose restrictions derived from economic theory on the utility difference model mean wtp estimates for three different types of changes in the quality of california deer hunting were uniformly lower for the joint response probit model compared to a set of independent probit models

socio economic status and child health does public health insurance narrow the drawing on evidence from the u s this paper examines the effects of public health insurance on children recent expansions of american public health insurance programs to previously ineligible children have created a great deal of variation that can be used to identify their effects results indicate that providing public insurance to poor children narrows socio economic gaps in utilization and health among children however inefficiencies and inequities in the allocation of health care remain which suggests that universality and outreach programs are also important components of the public health systems common in europe

poverty alleviation and tropical forests what scope for synergies abstract this paper explores the state of the art of the two way causal links between poverty alleviation and natural tropical forests microimpacts of rising poverty can increase or slow forest loss at the macrolevel poverty also has an ambiguous effect but it is probable that higher income stimulates forest loss by raising demand for agricultural land the second question is what potential forest led development has to alleviate a country s poverty in terms of producer benefits consumer benefits and economy wide employment natural forests widely serve as safety nets for the rural poor but it proves difficult to raise producer benefits significantly urban consumer benefits from forest an important target for pro poor agricultural innovation are limited and seldom favor the poor absorption of poor unskilled labor is low in forestry which tends to be capital intensive natural forests may thus lack comparative advantage for poverty alleviation there are few win win synergies between natural forests and national poverty reduction which may help to explain why the loss of tropical forests is ongoing this may have important implications for our understanding of sustainable forest development and for the design of both conservation and poverty alleviation strategies

the long run impact of biofuels on food prices more than 40 of us corn is now used to produce biofuels which are used as substitutes for gasoline in transportation biofuels have been blamed universally for past increases in world food prices and many studies have shown that these energy mandates in the us and eu may have a large 30 60 impact on food prices in this paper we use a partial equilibrium framework to show that demand side effects in the form of population growth and income driven preferences for meat and dairy products rather than cereals may play as much of a role in raising food prices as biofuel policy by specifying a ricardian model with differential land quality we find that a significant amount of new land will be converted to farming which is likely to cause a modest increase in food prices however biofuels may increase aggregate world carbon emissions due to leakage from lower oil prices and conversion of pasture and forest land for farming

ordering effects in nested top down and bottom up contingent valuation designs abstract within a contingent valuation cv survey ordering effects are defined where responses to a given question vary in a theoretically unanticipated manner according to the positioning of that question relative to others in the survey instrument this paper employs a split sample cv design to investigate the potential for such ordering effects upon stated willingness to pay for nested goods in one top down design values are first elicited for protecting the whole of an endangered area after which values for a part sub area are elicited a second bottom up treatment reverses the order of valuation tasks with the part scheme valued prior to the whole results show that whole and part valuation responses are logically ordered and determined by a consistent set of factors irrespective of question order however variance to question order was observed in both the part and whole valuations the correspondence of these results to standard and non standard preference theories is explored and the difficulties and practical issues concerning valuing nested goods are highlighted

sequencing and the adding up property in contingent valuation of endangered species are contingent non use values economic values this paper presents tests of the theoretical validity of the contingent valuation cv method the validity of cv is especially a concern when involving environmental goods with a predominant non use value one test of theoretical validity is the adding up property that implies that a specific good should be equally valued irrespectively of it is being valued directly or built up sequentially in this cv study four independent sub samples stated willingness to pay for the same composite good or package using different sequences one sub sample valued the composite good directly while two sub samples faced built up sequences valuing first subsets of this composite good a fourth sub sample valued the composite good from a dividing out approach facing first the valuation of a larger multi package theoretically expected sequencing effects were observed the subset goods obtained higher values earlier in a sequence and the dividing out approach decreased the stated value for the composite good most importantly these cv data did pass the tests of the adding up property

learning design contingent valuation ldcv noaa guidelines preference learning and coherent arbitrariness we extend the contingent valuation cv method to test three differing conceptions of individuals preferences as either i a priori well formed or readily divined and revealed through a single dichotomous choice question as per the noaa cv guidelines k arrow r solow p r portney e e leamer r radner h schuman report of the noaa panel on contingent valuation fed reg 58 1993 4601 4614 ii learned or discovered through a process of repetition and experience j a list does market experience eliminate market anomalies q j econ 2003 41 72 c r plott rational individual behaviour in markets and social choice processes the discovered preference hypothesis in k arrow e colombatto m perleman c schmidt eds rational foundations of economic behaviour macmillan london st martin s new york 1996 pp 225 250 iii internally coherent but strongly influenced by some initial arbitrary anchor d ariely g loewenstein d prelec coherent arbitrariness stable demand curves without stable preferences q j econ 118 1 2003 73 105 findings reject both the first and last of these conceptions in favour of a model in which preferences converge towards standard expectations through a process of repetition and learning in doing so we show that such a learning design cv method overturns the stylised facts of bias and anchoring within the double bound dichotomous choice elicitation format

trade liberalization and child mortality a synthetic control method abstract we study the effect of trade liberalization on child mortality using data from emerging and developing countries over the 1960 2010 period to capture possible heterogeneity of effects we use the synthetic control method scm for comparative case studies the scm allows to compare the trajectory of post reform health outcomes of treated countries those which experienced trade liberalization with the trajectory of a combination of similar but untreated countries on average trade liberalization significantly reduced child mortality the average reduction is around 9 ten years after the liberalization but there is significant heterogeneity in the impact for the cases for which the scm could provide a reliable counterfactual trade liberalization significantly reduced child mortality in approximately half the cases in most other cases there was no significant effect in the majority of the significant cases the reduction in child mortality was more than 20 on average trade liberalization reduced child mortality more a in democracies compared to autocracies b when incomes were higher and c when it reduced taxation of farmers

what can new survey data tell us about recent changes in distribution and poverty it has been claimed that in recent times the poor have lost ground both relatively and absolutely even when average levels of living have risen this article tests that claim using household surveys for 67 developing and transitional economies over 1981 94 it finds that changes in inequality and polarization were uncorrelated with changes in average living standards distribution improved as often as it worsened in growing economies and negative growth was often more detrimental to distribution than positive growth overall there was a small decrease in absolute poverty although with diverse experiences across regions and countries almost always poverty fell with growth in average living standards and rose with contraction

income distribution and infant mortality comparing two countries in which the poor have equal real incomes the one in which the rich are wealthier is likely to have a higher infant mortality rate this anomalous result does not appear to spring from measurement error in estimating the income of the poor and the association between high infant mortality and income inequality is still present after controlling for other factors such as education medical personnel and fertility the positive association of infant mortality and the income of the rich suggests that measured real incomes may be a poor measure of social welfare this paper considers and tests several possible explanations such as the provision of medical services the degree of urbanization the extent of female literacy and differences in the composition of births among different income groups none of these factors adequately accounts for the positive association between the incomes of the rich and infant mortality the geographical scope is worldwide excerpt

impacts of ethanol policy on corn prices a review and meta analysis of recent evidence abstract the literature on the impacts of biofuels on agricultural commodity prices is characterized by contradictory findings we review studies published between 2007 and 2014 that estimate the effects of u s corn ethanol policy on corn prices and find estimates ranging from nil to over 80 such divergent results make it difficult to assess the merits of alternative biofuel policies to bring more clarity to the issue and facilitate comparisons across studies we assemble a database of over 150 medium to long run estimates of the effect of corn ethanol production on corn prices from 29 published studies we first normalize corn price impacts by the change in corn ethanol volume to control for the large differences in ethanol quantities across scenarios we then conduct a meta analysis to identify the factors that drive the remaining variation in corn price impacts across studies in addition to ethanol volumes we find that modeling framework projection year inclusion of ethanol co products and biofuel production from other feedstocks explain much of the differences in price effects the results indicate that a one billion gallon expansion of the us corn ethanol mandate in the year 2015 would lead to a three to four percent increase in corn prices with smaller price changes projected in future years

poverty human development and growth an emerging consensus this paper considers several issues relevant to the debate on the extent to which poverty or development progress in general should be measured by income or by a broader set of objectives issues covered here are practical implications of the two approaches for poverty reduction efforts the impact of growth on basic social indicators and how national achievement on social indicators is best measured sri lanka and pakistan countries often cited in this debate are used as examples

valuing externalities from energy infrastructures through stated preferences a geographically stratified sampling approach abstractthe externalities produced by high voltage transmission lines are multidimensional may strongly depend on the local context and are thus difficult to capture through standard environmental valuation exercises we experiment a gis approach to design a geographically stratified contingent valuation sample of the population resident in infrastructure corridors in a whole region we estimate by means of a binary choice logit model the perceived marginal damage from impacts of power lines on human health the landscape and the environment specific treatment is given to qualitatively different forms of impact namely real estate depreciation versus diffused perception of damage arising at different distances from the lines the set of gis based variables proximity to power lines presence of other infrastructure endowment of natural and built heritage and other local context variables prove to be significant predictors in the utility function of resident households finally we compute simulate

evaluating the validity of the dichotomous choice question format in contingent valuation hypothetical and actual cash willingness to pay wtp for an art print were elicited with dichotomous choice and open ended question formats comparing hypothetical and actual dichotomous choice responses using both a likelihood ratio test and the method of convolutions suggests we reject equality at the 0 05 but not the 0 01 level hypothetical wtp was roughly two times actual wtp with the dichotomous choice format there were no significant differences between the open ended and dichotomous choice question formats when both were used to estimate hypothetical wtp or both used to estimate actual wtp

infant and child mortality in developing countries analysing the data for robust determinants is development best achieved by going for growth or does specific attention need to be paid to directly improving human welfare in contrast to the human development reports of the undp the world bank has stressed the growth approach recent work has reinforced this position by arguing that health spending is extremely ineffective in reducing infant or child mortality which is mainly explained by a country s income per capita this article contests this position through testing the robustness of determinants of infant and child mortality we have estimated over 420 000 equations which show that while income per capita is a robust determinant of infant and child mortality so are indicators of health education and gender inequality some health spending such as immunisation is thus shown to be cost effective way of saving lives our results are consistent with the view that much health spending in developing countries may be poorly targeted or otherwise ineffective but do not support the position t

performance in living standards abstract our ultimate objective is to enhance the standard of living of our societies but the standard of living has different meanings for different people a thorough investigation of the concept of the standard of living has been made only recently by sen who defines it in terms of functioning and capabilities functioning is an achievement whereas capability is the ability to achieve the main objective of the present paper is to compare achievements levels and improvement changes in the standard of living across countries using an axiomatic approach an achievement index is derived which accomodates the view that a further increase in the standard of living of a country when it is already at a higher level signifies an achievement greater than that of another with an equal increase but from a lower base the paper also tests for the statistical relationship between indicators of the countries standards of living so derived in their capita gdp the question posed is whether the aggregate income which provides people with the means to achieve a better life can be used as proxy measure of the standard living and extent to which the country s improvement in the standard of living can be explained by the levels and changes in the per capita income the analysis presented in the paper is based on the data from 80 developing countries

the effects of public health spending on self assessed health status an ordered probit model this paper explores the relationship between public health expenditure and self assessed health status medical resources are imputed according to where individuals reside the analysis draws upon data from the 1993 national health survey controlling for a number of individual characteristics which also determine health status the estimations indicate that increases in public health expenditure significantly improve both physiological and physical health the results remain consistent when the model is reestimated and the change in the probability at the mean of the independent variable is calculated

alternative transportation fuel standards welfare effects and climate benefits this paper develops an integrated model of the fuel and agricultural sectors to analyze the welfare and greenhouse gas emission ghg effects of the existing renewable fuel standard rfs a low carbon fuel standard lcfs and a carbon price policy the conceptual framework shows that these policies differ in the incentives they create for the consumption and mix of different types of biofuels and in their effects on food and fuel prices and ghg emissions we also simulate the welfare and ghg effects of these three policies which are normalized to achieve the same level of us ghg emissions by promoting greater production of food crop based biofuels the rfs is found to lead to a larger reduction in fossil fuel use but also a larger increase in food prices and a smaller reduction in global ghg emissions compared to the lcfs and carbon tax all three policies increase us social welfare compared to a no biofuel baseline scenario due to improved terms of trade even when environmental benefits are excluded global social welfare increases with a carbon tax but decreases with the rfs and lcfs due to the efficiency costs imposed by these policies even after including the benefits of mitigating ghg emissions

growth and poverty evidence for developing countries in the 1980s abstract measures of consumption poverty for a sample of developing countries in the 1980s respond elastically to changes in mean consumption although there is a high variance in poverty outcomes at a given rate of growth there is no sign of systematic effects of growth on inequality