occupational self selection a human capital approach to sex differences in occupational structure a rich and diverse literature exists concerning the distribution of labor incomes one approach namely that of human capital concentrates on lifetime accumulation paths of earnings capacity units human capital individual variations in human capital imply differences in earnings power thereby yielding strong implications concerning earnings distribution within a population despite its explanatory power the human capital model has been widely criticized one criticism centers on its inability to obtain inferences concerning occupational distribution the purpose of this paper is to alleviate at least some such criticism by applying the hedonic price approach so as to embed occupational choice into the human capital framework the significance is that neoclassical economic theory can be used to obtain implications concerning the determinants of occupational structure excerpt

international macroeconomic policy coordination an overview this article which serves as an introduction to the oxford review of economic policy s issue on macroeconomic policy coordination global imbalances and global growth charts the evolution of international macroeconomic policy coordination from the end of the second world war until the present day the arrangements laid out at the bretton woods conference in 1944 provide an intellectual framework with which to assess the evolving need for and feasibility of international coordination across three historical periods the fixed but adjustable exchange rate arrangements of the bretton woods system the subsequent flexible exchanges period of the non system which led into the great moderation and finally the period since the global financial crisis of 2008 increased economic integration particularly through the capital account combined with asymmetries in exchange rate regimes between china and the us have shown that reliance on the automatic adjustment mechanisms of the non system are no longer feasible so that a return to policy cooperation is necessary in order to rebalance the world economy and reduce the adverse spill over impacts that uncoordinated rebalancing would entail the article explores the nature of this coordination and provides a context for other contributions to the issue analysing positive and normative aspects of macroeconomic policy coordination from a global perspective and from the prospective of key global players including china and the european union copyright 2013 oxford university press

the determinants of occupational success in britain this paper is concerned with measuring the true impact of certain human capital variables on an individual s occupational position the particular variables which are analysed are training qualifications and spells of sickness and unemployment the longitudinal nature of the data enables us to control for all relevant individual attributes which remain fixed over the period of the sample this is vitally important because these attributes are strongly correlated with the variables of interest and would seriously corrupt estimates derived from a single cross section a method of generating consistent estimates as n oo t fixed for a dynamic model with fixed effects is also illustrated

allocation of individuals to job levels under rationing summary we augment an ordered response model for the job level at which individuals desire to work with allowance for individual reporting of a discrepancy between actual and desired job level and we also investigate possible biases from restricting the observations to the employed and omitting the unemployed we find that the latter bias can be ignored and interpret this as evidence that the unemployed are not choosier than the employed people claiming inadequate capability utilization are not markedly differently allocated than those claiming a proper match women s lower job levels cannot be explained from rationing by capability utilization

on some effects of international fragmentation of production on comparative advantages trade flows and the income of countries in traditional trade models whether based on technological differences or on relative factor endowments merchandise composition and directions of trade are derived from closed economy conditions but nowadays one of the basic assumptions of traditional trade models i e that production processes are integrated within just one country is being increasingly violated as previously integrated productive activities are segmented and spread over an international network of production sites as a result an increasingly large share of trade flows is made up of intermediate and unfinished goods being transferred from one country to another in order to be processed in this paper we submit that such new configuration of production processes has important effects on at least three dimensions of economic research first we show that international disintegration of production processes leads to a lessening of the power of comparative advantages when it comes to explaining both merchandise composition and directions of trade while it is the concept of absolute advantage to become increasingly relevant second we show that empirical measures of revealed comparative advantages are inherently misleading if they do not account for differences in the stage of processing of traded goods third we estimate a simple model of aggregate demand accounting for international trade in intermediates results of estimation lend support to our prior that participation of a country in the process of international fragmentation of production plays a specific and significant role in determining its year over year change in gdp

the rise of the super rich power resources taxes financial markets and the dynamics of the top 1 percent 1949 to 2008 the income share of the super rich in the united states has grown rapidly since the early 1980s after a period of postwar stability what factors drove this change in this study we investigate the institutional policy and economic shifts that may explain rising income concentration we use single equation error correction models to estimate the long and short run effects of politics policy and economic factors on pretax top income shares between 1949 and 2008 we find that the rise of the super rich is the result of rightward shifts in congress the decline of labor unions lower tax rates on high incomes increased trade openness and asset bubbles in stock and real estate markets

intra european imbalances adjustment and growth in the eurozone this paper considers the increase in the euro intra area imbalances since the late 1990s and their role in the current european debt crisis by focusing on the case study of italy and germany we argue that both macroeconomic the functioning of the euro area and microeconomic internationalization of production factors contributed to the creation of such imbalances when sovereign risk and currency risk emerged in the periphery coupled with austerity as a response to these risks both factors made the euro crisis worse the present zero sum game approach is very risky for the stability of the euro area policy coordination of some kind is needed this requires agreeing on well identified economic policy priorities taking full account of the different positions of the members in terms of growth external imbalances and competitiveness new policy priorities are thus required in the euro zone that put more emphasis on cooperative positive sum games in convergence and competitiveness

the rise and fall of the dollar a comment if readers of this paper were to ask themselves what the rates for the world s major currencies are likely to be in say three years time it is doubtful whether they would have much confidence in their predictions even conditional forecasts on the basis of particular assumptions about policy would be hard to make this state of ignorance and our admission of it owes much to the recent behaviour of the dollar which as koromzay llewellyn and potter so usefully discuss largely defies explanation in terms of conventional economic analysis even when full use is made of the luxury of hindsight that ignorance itself may however have important policy implications these comments relate to both the theoretical and policy aspects of the paper though the focus as in the paper itself is on the implications for policy a general difficulty may be stated at the outset the paper reasonably enough concentrates on the dollar in the i98os but though this is much the most dramatic illustration of the difficulties in explaining exchange rate movements it is not the only one thus ideally an explanation of dollar strength should be consistent with explanations given for previous dollar weakness see for example bliss i986 and for other recent major movements of exchange rates such as the apparently similar gravity defying rise in sterling in the late i970s and early 198os where theory and empirical analysis fail explanations tend to become ad hoc with a danger that false or over strong policy conclusions are drawn even a casual comparison with the united kingdom raises some questions as well as supporting the general thrust of this paper thus the monetary fiscal mix in the united kingdom was very different from that in the united states according to oecd figures the structural budget moved to surplus by some 6 of gdp between i979 and i982 which must at least suggest a cautious approach to some of the simpler stories that trace the rise in the dollar to united states fiscal irresponsibility the united states experience which as the paper demonstrates does not accord with conventional models of the overshootingtype also throws doubt in the other direction about applications of that kind of model to the united kingdom for example by buiter and miller i98i of course the united kingdom s situation was special because of north sea oil but if north sea oil was important the obvious reason would be due to its effect on relative current account positions which does not seem to work well for the united states and in any case most estimates suggest that oil should account for only a part of the rise in sterling see powell and horton i985 for a survey and as in the united states empirical models were notably unsuccessful in predicting the exchange rate haache and townend i98i

on the determination of occupational attainment and mobility the underlying motivation for much of the research into the determinants of occupational attainment is to enable inferences to be made as to the relative position of various groups at a point in time or an individual s economic mobility over time in this paper we compare unordered and ordered discrete choice approaches to estimating models of occupational attainment estimates from these methods differ substantially indicating that the determination of which technique is more appropriate is an important issue the ordered method appears to be more consistent with the motivation of previous research and requires less computer time unordered models however are better able to predict occupational distribution

unemployment and income distribution time series evidence from sweden for a long time swedish politicians have been devoted to keeping unemployment at low levels the main reason for this devotion is probably the belief that higher unemployment increases inequality of income and welfare this is a reasonable belief since unemployment risks are highest among people with low earnings capacity even when they have a job by means of micro data it is easy to verify a marked low income profile of unemployment further the swedish unemployment insurance system replaces only about 70 per cent of foregone income and quite many unemployed do not qualify for any benefits see bjorklund and holmlund 1991 increases in unemployment however are associated with many changes in the economy with complex consequences for the personal distribution of income in addition to the income losses suffered by those who become unemployed higher unemployment also affects the factor shares of income the profit share typically declines during recessions and because upper income groups receive a relatively high proportion of their income from capital income a countervailing mechanism is involved changes in unemployment also affect inflation which in turn might influence the personal distribution of income the distributional effects of inflation are an open question this note makes an investigation into the relationship between unemployment and the personal distribution of income using swedish time series data the method was first used on u s data by blinder and

unemployment and female labour supply the definition of labour force participation in the standard labour supply model stands in sharp contrast to that used in compiling the labour force statistics in the labour supply models only those supplying positive hours of work are considered to be labour force participants on the other hand participation in the labour force statistics is often defined to include not only those supplying positive hours but also those actively searching for work this paper is an attempt to reconcile these concepts by allowing unemployed workers to enter a generalisation of the standard labour supply model this turns out to be a convenient way to enter demand side factors directly into the determination of an individual s labour market position the model is applied with some success to the working behaviour of married women in the uk family expenditure survey

job complexity and wages the authors estimate a model inspired by j tinbergen s 1956 article with utility maximizing job choice where utility depends on job complexity and the wage rate and where the equilibrium wage structure provides for compensation for more complex jobs it involves maximum likelihood estimation of a two equation model with heteroscedastic errors in which one of the equations is an ordered probit in the wage function individual characteristics and job level interact comparative advantage females face a steeper wage slope across job levels individuals marginal rate of substitution between wage and job complexity is increasing both in job complexity and wages copyright 1993 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

measuring macroeconomic performance in the oecd a comparison of european and non european countries abstract we study the macroeconomic performance of 19 oecd countries over the period 1970 1990 performance is defined in terms of the ability of a country s macroeconomic managers to provide four services to their citizens a high level of real gdp per capita a low rate of inflation a low rate of unemployment and a favorable trade balance we use linear programming techniques to construct a best practice macroeconomic performance frontier and to measure the performance of each country in each year relative to the frontier we then add two environmental disamenities carbon and nitrogen emissions to the service list and repeat the analysis to see if the performance rankings change throughout the analysis emphasis is placed on a comparison of the performance of 14 european oecd countries with that of five non european oecd countries we find that performance rankings do change and that the relative performance of the european countries declines when the environmental disamenities are added to the service list

a more efficient estimate of the effects of macroeconomic activity on the distribution of income the effects of unemployment and inflation on quintile shares of family income in the united states are estimated by means of generalized least squares inflation is found to have a significant progressive impact on the distribution of income the results also lend support to earlier findings regarding the regressive effects of unemployment copyright 1994 by mit press

on the positive correlation between income inequality and unemployment abstract two papers published in this journal jantti 1994 and mocan 1999 among others find empirical evidence that increases in structural unemployment have a substantial aggravating impact on income inequality the main point of this work is to show that standard job search models can help us understand this empirical regularity as a byproduct of the analysis the paper also provides a closed form general expression that enables direct calculation of the gini coefficient of wage income inequality as a function of any arbitrary initial distribution of wage offers three numerical examples illustrate the results

earnings functions testing for the demand side abstract to analyze labor market phenomena one may simultaneously grade workers by education and jobs by level of difficulty and complexity human capital theory predicts earnings based on only worker quality thurow s version of a segmented labor market theory predicts that only the job level is relevant and the assignment theory predicts that both variables are relevant using three different data sets for the netherlands testing demonstrates convincingly the superiority of the assignment theory

opening a can of worms the pitfalls of time series regression analyses of income inequality this paper argues that time series regression analysis is of only very limited use for understanding the determinants of income inequality the argument is based on a combination of results from the time series econometrics literature and several characteristics of inequality itself principally nonstationarity of the data in most inequality regression models and the weak theoretical foundations underlying the models a sample of postwar us data is used to illustrate the problems involved

money supply class power and inflation monetarism reassessed recent sociological work shows that pro market neoliberal policies across advanced capitalist countries are due to distributional struggle between classes in the 1970s and 1980s the orthodox monetarist view alternatively sees neoliberal reform as a nonpolitical attempt to end the stagflation crisis of the 1970s from this perspective monetary and fiscal expansions brought high inflation and central bank discipline and government austerity is the solution but the recent trend of low inflation despite accelerating money growth and government spending contradicts this view analyses of time series cross section data for 23 oecd countries from 1960 to 2009 support the thesis that the rise and fall of inflation is more about distribution of power between labor and capital than about monetary and fiscal discipline inflation in the 1970s originated from a strong working class and hurt capital more than it did workers while neoliberal repression of workers power has kept inflation low from the 1980s onwa

structural unemployment cyclical unemployment and income inequality this is the first study that decomposes unemployment into its structural and cyclical components and investigates their impact on income distribution controlling for the influence of inflation increases in structural unemployment have a substantial aggravating impact on income inequality inflation has a progressive impact which is due to the unexpected component the study demonstrates that previous work failed to take into account the stochastic trend behavior of the variables consequently specifications used by previous research cannot predict the behavior of income shares after 1983 whereas the specification used by this paper generates accurate forecasts the results also indicate that a sustained gnp growth is not necessarily associated with an improvement in income inequality because sustained gnp growth can coexist with increased structural unemployment

winners and losers a micro level analysis of international outsourcing and wages our paper investigates the link between international outsourcing and wages utilizing a large household panel and combining it with industry level information on industries outsourcing activities from input output tables this approach avoids prob lems such as aggregation bias potential endogeneity bias and poor skill definitions that commonly hamper industry level studies we find that outsourcing has had a marked impact on wages applying two alternative skill classifications we find evidence that a 1 percentage point increase in outsourcing reduced the wage for workers in the lowest skill categories by up to 1 5 while it increased wages for high skilled workers by up to 2 6 this result is robust to a number of different specifications jel classification f16 j31 gagnants et perdants une analyse micro economique de la sous traitance internationale et des salaires ce memoire etudie le lien entre la sous traitance internationale et les salaires a l aide de donnees d un grand panel de menages qu on combine avec des donnees au niveau des industries sur les activites de sous traitance de celles qui en font obtenues des tableaux interindustriels cette approche evite les problemes qui habituellement polluent les etudes au niveau de l industrie biais d agregation biais d endogeneite potentielle mauvaises definitions des habiletes on decouvre que la sous traitance a un effet sur les salaires a l aide de differentes formes de classification des habiletes il appert qu un point de pourcentage d augmentation dans la sous traitance reduit les salaires des travailleurs dans les categories d habilete les plus basses de 1 5 alors qu il accroit les salaires de travailleurs specialises de 2 6 ce resultat est robuste et avere meme quand on utilise diverses specifications

labor force participation rates and the informational value of unemployment rates evidence from disaggregated us data the informational value of the aggregate us unemployment rate has recently been questioned because of a unit root in the labor force participation rate the lack of mean reversion implies that long

estimation of a labour supply model with censoring due to unemployment and underemployment this study proposes and implements a method of labour supply estimation which is appropriate when the sample contains unemployed and underemployed workers the estimation method consists of excluding unemployed and underemployed workers from the sample and then using to avoid selection bias an extension of heckman s approach to the case where two correlated selection rules generate the sample hausman s specification test is then used to determine whether ignoring constrained workers has led to biases in traditional labour supply estimates and the empirical results suggest that previous estimates of several important parameters are biased since the biases go in the direction that would be predicted by the hypothesis that the unemployed and underemployed are constrained the results support this hypothesis