credit natural disasters coffee and educational attainment in rural honduras summary this paper exploits a two stage estimation approach to examine the impact on secondary school attainment in rural honduras of four key variables affecting household choices wealth credit access crop choice and shocks the first stage estimates the probability that a household is credit constrained while the second estimates secondary school educational attainment of appropriately aged children the second stage includes variables for crop selection and household wealth shocks from hurricane mitch in addition to other characteristics of the child household and community that can influence educational attainment credit constrained households have lower educational attainment and are more likely to be adversely affected by negative shocks

costly arbitrage evidence from closed end funds arbitrage costs lead to large deviations of prices from fundamentals using a sample of closed end funds i find that the market value of a fund is more likely to deviate from the value of its assets 1 for funds with portfolios that are difficult to replicate 2 for funds that pay out smaller dividends 3 for funds with lower market values and 4 when interest rates are high these factors are related to the magnitude of the deviation as opposed to the direction i e whether discount or premium and explain a quarter of cross sectional mispricing variation these findings are consistent with noise trader models of asset pricing

determinants of the equilibrium real exchange rate n b professor neary was based at university college dublin and queen s university ontario canada when this article was first published the full text of this article is not available in ora at this time citation neary j p 1988 determinants of the equilibrium real exchange rate american economic review 78 1 210 215

equilibrium real exchange rates closed form theoretical solutions and some empirical evidence abstract this paper generates closed form theoretical solutions for the relationships among the real exchange rate relative per capita consumption and relative wealth in a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of two countries representative consumers the solutions offer insight into the robust cross sectional relationship between relative per capita gdps and relative national price levels established in kravis and lipsey 1983 1987 1988 in a manner consistent with equilibrium exchange rate theories and the productivity differentials model of balassa 1964 and samuelson 1964 application of panel data from summers and heston 1988 to the model s structural equations yields economically plausible estimates of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution the relative importance of nondashtradables in consumption and the rate of time preference in several oecd countries relative to that in the united states

conditional cash transfers shocks and school enrolment in nicaragua abstract this work estimates the impacts of a nicaraguan cash transfer programme that pays households conditional on school attendance and family visits to health clinics and seminars a model explores the impact on school enrollment of cash transfers given differences in household wealth labour market opportunities and negative shocks a difference in difference estimation for distinct wealth cohorts reveals that the programme led to a significant improvement in school enrollment outcomes among poor households in coffee cultivating communities the results cast doubt however on proposals that broadly link conditional cash transfers to negative shocks

price reversals bid ask spreads and market efficiency we examine the behavior of common stock prices after a large change in price occurs during a single trading day and find evidence that the stock market appears to have overreacted especially in the case of price declines however the magnitude of the overreaction is small compared to the bid ask spreads observed for the individual stocks in the sample we interpret this finding as being consistent with a market that is efficient after transactions costs are considered

short versus long run implications of trade liberalization for poverty in three developing countries the impacts of global trade reform on poverty are a key concern in the current trade negotiations under the doha development agenda the aggregate poverty impacts of trade reform are in turn strongly linked to the impacts of such reforms on the rural population as they constitute the overwhelming majority of the poor in almost all developing countries this paper uses a new micro simulation methodology designed to analyze this critical issue the methodology is first explained and then applied to three developing countries of particular interest chile malawi and vietnam a key feature is the distinction between the short run impacts of reform where many factors most importantly selfemployed labor of the poor tend to be immobile between sectors and the longer run impacts when factors find their highest return regardless of the sector of employment this distinction makes an enormous difference and

note on international differences in service prices and some related empirical phenomena abstract this paper provides an alternative explanation of some important stylized facts of development including the phenomenon of international differences in service prices in terms of differences in factor endowments between countries in so doing this paper advances a general equilibrium model of a small open economy which features non traded goods as well as demand factors thereby incorporating important economic aspects which were neglected by many others an interesting finding which emerges from this exercise is that many puzzles in development can be explained simply in terms of differences in factor endowments between countries

world product and income international comparisons of real gross product the volume reports on the third phase of the united nations international comparison project icp the main results provide comparisons of real gross domestic product gdp per capita for thirty four countries in 1975 quantity and price comparisons are given also for personal consumption capital formation and public consumption and further subdivisions of final expenditures on gdp are estimated

trade liberalization and factor price convergence abstract this paper examines the effects of trade liberalization on international disparities in factor real returns in a model with more factors than goods existing trade interventions are assumed to be restricting trade we find that any bias for or against factor price convergence depends on the underlying source of comparative advantage where trade is based on differences in factor endowments trade liberalization has a bias towards factor price convergence where trade is based on technology differences biases are more difficult to detect but if they exist they are likely to work against factor price convergence

relative prices and investment rates abstract we construct a panel for the price of aggregate investment over consumption and report the following observations 1 relative price differences across countries are large over the entire sample period and this conclusion is not affected by excluding non tradable consumption goods 2 relative price dispersion has decreased during the sample period 3 relative price changes are not persistent across periods while average price levels are moreover the persistence in relative price levels is higher for countries at low relative prices we show that the relative price of investment is negatively correlated with investment rates in a cross section of countries the standard one sector growth model is a natural framework to study quantitatively the effects of barriers to capital accumulation since there is a very simple mapping between barriers to investment and relative prices in this environment we simulate a calibrated version of the model in which barriers follow a stochastic process common to all countries and estimated using relative price data and obtain statistics for investment rates that closely resemble what we observe in the data in particular the model accounts for 90 of the 1985 gini index of relative investment rates and the decline in investment rate dispersion over time the model has two limitations as a theory of development first it cannot account for the income disparity in the data unless we assume unmeasured capital with barriers affecting the broad measure of capital second even under these extreme assumptions the model cannot account for the evolution of income disparity over time

fair trade organic coffee cooperatives migration and secondary schooling in southern mexico abstract we explore three trends in rural southern mexico fair trade coffee migration and conditional cash transfers that could explain the rapid rise in education from 1995 2005 using survey data from 845 coffee farming households in oaxaca and chiapas mexico results from a household fixed effects model show that household participation in a fair trade organic cooperative contributed to about a 0 7 year increase in schooling for girls us migration opportunities appear to have even stronger positive impacts on schooling for females although participation in fair trade organic cooperatives appears also to have increased male schooling increased migration opportunities have had an indeterminate effect for males

a model of real national price levels this paper is concerned with the price level in the sense used in a recent paper by kravis and lipsey entitled toward an explanation of national price levels 15 the price level of a particular country relative to the base country is defined as the ratio of the purchasingpower parity ppp to the exchange rate it has become generally recognized that the ppp need not equal the exchange rate even in long run free trade equilibrium and the explanation of the discrepancy is a natural subject of scientific interest there is a voluminous literature on temporary deviations of ppp from the exchange rate that are explained in terms of monetary disturbances and random shocks there is a much smaller literature on long run or structural factors that explain why ppp does not coincide with the exchange rate the present paper falls in the second category we shall assume the economy is in monetary and balance of payments equilibrium the term price level as used in kravis and lipsey 15 may be confusing because that term usually refers to the price of goods in terms of money the term real price level seems more appropriate in that the concept refers to a ratio of two prices the real price level is what the tourist has in mind when he goes to a poor country and remarks my but prices are low here a major feature of the existing literature on long run or structural explanations of the real price level is the emphasis on the distinction between tradables and nontradables it is typically assumed that the law of one price holds for tradables but not for nontradables which are dominated by services the productivity differential model as stated by balassa 2 for example assumes that international differences in labor productivity are greater in commodities tradables than in services it follows that services will be relatively cheap in poor low productivity countries and that consequently the real price level relative to a base country will rise with per capita income recently bhagwati 5 has shown that the low relative price of services in poor countries can be explained by a capital labor model without recourse to the assumption that production functions differ internationally in bhagwati s model rich countries export capital intensive commodities and poor countries export labor intensive commodities but even though commodity prices are equalized through trade complete specialization prevents factor prices from being equalized since services are assumed to be labor intensive relative to any commodity they are cheaper in poor countries than in rich countries

transforming rural economies migration income generation and inequality in rural mexico abstract we analyse how migration shapes the distribution and sources of rural income using nationally representative panel data from mexico income source gini decompositions provide some support for the migration diffusion hypothesis nevertheless migration s influence on other income sources and household re ranking substantially alter distributional impacts we find significant impacts of migration on non remittance income as well as changes in the effects of non migration activities on inequality over time we conclude that migration is transforming rural economies in ways that go beyond the scope of most past research on migration and inequality

what impact does the choice of formula have on international comparisons in this paper an empirical comparison of a number of alternative multilateral index number formulae is undertaken the magnitude of the effect of choosing one formula over another is ascertained using an appropriate cross sectional data set constructed under the auspices of the eurostat oecd purchasing power parity programme to this end a new indicator is proposed that facilitates the measurement of the difference between two sets of bloc consumption shares each computed using a different multilateral comparison method jel classification c31 c43 c81 e31 f31 o57 quel impact est ce que le choix des formules a sur les comparaisons internationales ce memoire propose une comparaison empirique d un certain nombre de formules de nombres indices multilateraux on tente de jauger la magnitude de l impact du choix d une formule plutot qu une autre en utilisant une base de donnees transversales appropriee construite sous l egide du programme de parite du pouvoir d achat eurostat ocde on propose un nouvel indicateur qui facilite la mesure de la difference entre deux ensembles de patterns de consommation chacun calculea l aide d une methode de comparaison multilaterale differente

explaining service price differences in international comparisons this paper reexamines observed international differences in the price of services and the positive correlation of these with per capita gdp differences using a general trade model with a nontraced sector the authors find that differences in countries factor endowments populations trade policies and trade balances will have ambiguous and sometimes opposite effects on their service prices and real incomes estimating the service price equation using recent data suggests that larger endowments of agricultural land minerals and capital larger trade deficits and higher prices for tradables increase service prices conversely larger populations and labor forces reduce service prices copyright 1991 by american economic association

structural change and poverty in africa a decomposition anakysis for cote d ivoire abstract this paper provides evidence that economic destabilization and the absence of managed structural change in an economy can be more harmful to the welfare of the poor than the process of adjustment itself evidence comes from four consecutive years of household survey data from cote d ivoire spanning both a period of adjustment and destabilization these constitute a unique data base in africa to assess the impact of structural change on the poor the analytic methodology used is that of static and dynamic decomposition of poverty measures along policy relevant dimensions

information sophistication and foreign versus domestic investors performance abstract using an intraday transaction dataset with trader identity we study foreign and domestic investors trading activities and investment performance ahead of open ending events of taiwanese closed end funds simply buying the funds at a discount and holding until open ending generates large abnormal returns all information required to execute this strategy is made public so the events set up natural experiments to examine how investors trade holding constant access to information foreign investors are net buyers ahead of the open endings more than doubling their positions and earning large abnormal returns domestic investors are net sellers while the discounts are still large and forego large abnormal returns the results suggest that investor sophistication in interpreting the same information is potentially an important determinant of investment performance differences across foreign and domestic investors

child labor cause consequence and cure with remarks on international labor standards although the literature on child labor is enormous it lacks a common theoretical foundation in this paper analytical survey of this field is provided keeping in mind that this is an area where the primary reason for theorizing is ultimately to influence policy overall it is noted that the literature on child labor is an illustration of abundance and anarchy although empirical writings on child labor are numerous they are not usually founded on theory it is argued that there is much that can be done in curbing the issue of child labor several theories were studied in this paper including collaborative intervention such efforts include public action which alters the economic environment such that the parents of their own accord prefer to withdraw the child from labor force another strategy involves the government a legal intervention is enforcing a total ban on the subject although such interventions have good intentions some of them may not be feasible in general it is better to take economy wide measures against child labor and if there is to be a sector specific ban it should be based on the working conditions of that sector rather than the destination of the goods

why are services cheaper in the poor countries in their important work on international comparisons of national incomes and of comparative price structure kravis heston and summers i982 p 8 have noted that services are much cheaper in the relative price structure of a typical poor country than in that of a rich country this phenonomen has been documented now fairly systematically by the data gathered under their guiding hand of the united nations international comparison icp which covers 34 countries table i reproduced from their work i982 and fig i based on rows 3 and ii 13 indeed show this tendencyfor the relationship between relative service prices and real per capita gdp in this kravis heston summers 34 country 6 group sample the tendency is strongly evident except for the intermediate groups iii and iv

fair trade organic coffee rural livelihoods and the agrarian question southern mexican coffee families in transition summary we use a random sample of coffee producing households in southern mexico to compare opportunities associated with government subsidies and migration to the role of fair trade organic coffee in household livelihoods although land and labor returns among fair trade organic coffee growers are higher than for conventional growers differences in yields are more important than price premiums moreover investment in education and labor opportunities outside coffee dominate those in fair trade organic coffee the results highlight the value of an integrated approach to the agrarian question that improves productivity and prices and supports other pathways for improving incomes

trade in goods and factors with international differences in technology a general model of trade caused by international differences in production technology is developed using techniques of duality theory for the caseof product augmenting differences in technology it is shown that there is a positive correlation between net export and technological superiority such that a country will on average export goods for which the country has superior technolor if some factors are permitted to be internationally traded it is demonstrated via this correlation that the volume of trade must increase thus unlike trade caused by factor endowment differences goods trade caused by product augmenting differences in production technolody is always in this sense complementary with factor trade for factor augmenting technology differences in the absence of factor trade the goods trade pattern is as if it was caused by factor endowment differences with factor trade goods trade and factor trade can then be either complements or substitutes this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

economic information versus quality variation in cross country data data quality in the penn world tables varies systematically across countries that have different growth rates and are at different stages of economic development thus intro ducing measurement error correlated with variables of economic interest we explore this problem with three examples from the literature showing that the problem appears to be minor in growth convergence regressions but serious in estimating the effect of income volatility on growth and in a cross country lest of the permanent income hypothesis the results suggest at the least a need for performing appropriate sensitivity tests before draw

the heterogeneity of the consumer s preferences over time a system wide analysis of discrete panel data abstract the paper uses the individual and overall tests of heterogeneity for two complete piglog models of expenditure equations fitted to discrete survey data to investigate a possible change in the consumer s preferences in australia between 1975 76 and 1983 84 the evidence lends support to the hypothesis of significant behavioral change and also indicates that this change is attributable mainly to the convolution of the consumption patterns in current housing costs and food

network effects and the dynamics of migration and inequality theory and evidence from mexico international migration is costly and initially only the middle class of the wealth distribution may have both the means and incentives to migrate which can increase inequality in the sending community however the migration networks formed lower the costs for future migrants which can in turn lower inequality this paper shows both theoretically and empirically that wealth has a nonlinear effect on migration and then examines the empirical evidence for an inverse u shaped relationship between emigration and inequality in rural sending communities in mexico after instrumenting we find that the overall impact of migration is to reduce inequality across communities with relatively high levels of past migration we also find some suggestive evidence for an inverse u shaped relationship among communities with a wider range of migration experiences

the economics of schooling production and efficiency in public schools n recent years public and professional interest in schools has been heightened by a spate of reports many of them critical of current school policy these policy documents have added to persistent and long standing concerns about the cost effectiveness and fairness of the current school structure and have made schooling once again a serious public issue as in the past however any renewed interest in education is likely to be short lived doomed to dissipate as frustration over the inability of policy to improve school practice sets in this frustration about school policy relates directly to knowledge about the educational production process and in turn to underlying research on schools although the educational process has been extensively researched clear policy prescriptions flowing from this research have been difficult to derive 2 there exists however a consistency to the research findings that does have an immediate application to school policy schools differ dramatically in quality

international migration self selection and the distribution of wages evidence from mexico and the united states we use the 1990 and 2000 mexican and u s population censuses to test borjas s negative selection hypothesis that the less skilled are those most likely to migrate from countries with high skill premia earnings inequality to countries with low skill premia earnings inequality we find that mexican immigrants in the united states are more educated than nonmigrants in mexico and were mexican immigrants to be paid according to current skill prices in mexico they would be concentrated in the middle of mexico s wage distribution these results are inconsistent with the negative selection hypothesis and instead suggest that there is intermediate selection of immigrants from mexico

a formalisation and test of the factor productivity explanation of international differences in service prices this paper extends and integrates previous models of the determinants of international differences in the prices of services relative to tradable commodities the authors provide a model capable of identifying the effects of differences in total factor productivity on service price differences separately from the effects of factor endowment differences they propose a method for measuring these factor productivity difference effects and apply this to a sample of sixty countries in 1980 the authors results provide support both for the endowment difference and productivity difference explanations suggesting that in this context at least the two hypotheses are complements rather than competitors copyright 1996 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

opec announcements and their effects on crude oil prices we investigate evidence on the effects of opec announcements on world oil prices by examining announcements from both official conferences and ministerial meetings on major international crudes including the key benchmarks and several other heavy and light grades with data from 1982 to 2008 we use event study methodology and find differentiation in the magnitude and significance of market responses to opec quota decisions under different price bands we also find some weak evidence of differentiation between light and heavy crude grades

extending the sample size in cross country demand analysis abstract results from different phases of the international comparison project and from different sets of countries are compared and combined

school subsidies for the poor evaluating the mexican progresa poverty program abstract this paper evaluates how the progresa program which provides poor mothers in rural mexico with education grants has affected enrollment poor children who reside in communities randomly selected to participate in the initial phase of the progresa are compared to those who reside in other control communities pre program comparisons check the randomized design and double difference estimators of the program s effect on the treated are calculated by grade and sex probit models are also estimated for the probability that a child is enrolled controlling for additional characteristics of the child their parents local schools and community and for sample attrition to evaluate the sensitivity of the program estimates these estimates of program short run effects on enrollment are extrapolated to the lifetime schooling and the earnings of adults to approximate the internal rate of return on the public schooling subsidies as they increase expected private wages

structural determinants of real exchange rates and national price levels some empirical evidence contrary to the long held notion of purchasing power parity ppp economists have found systematic evidence that the general level of prices across countries at a point in time varies dramatically irving b kravis alan w heston and robert summers 1982 for example report that some countries national price levels are no more than one third the u s price level extensions of this work show that such departures from ppp have persisted for decades recently efforts have been made to explain systematically these persistent or structural departures from ppp pioneering work by kravis and robert e lipsey 1983 1987 1988 has demonstrated that a positive correlation between the price level and real per capita gross domestic product is robust across numerous cross sectional specifications for instance using data from kravis et al 1982 table 6 12 87 percent of the variation in national price levels pl of 21 countries in 1975 is explained by per capita gdp y and a constant

user cost and housing tenure in developing countries abstract this paper reports on research conducted at the world bank to increase understanding of developing country housing markets in particular of housing demand behavior the objectives of the paper are 1 to briefly review recent evidence on housing demand parameters in developing countries including new estimates for colombia egypt el salvador ghana india jamaica korea and the philippines and 2 to examine similarities and differences among cities in housing demand the analysis emphasizes differences in housing demand by tenure particularly for renters and owners but also for squatters and non squatters and paralleling the literature in developed countries stresses the importance of accounting for the impact of income and relative prices on housing demand

self selection and the earnings of immigrants this paper analyzes the way in which the earnings of the immigrant population may be expected to differ from the earnings of the native population because of the endogeneity of the decision to migrate the empirical study shows that differences in the u s earnings of immigrants with the same measured skills but from different home countries are attributable to variations in political and economic conditions in the countries of origin at the time of migration excerpt

international migration remittances and schooling evidence from el salvador abstract we examine the effect of remittances from abroad on households schooling decisions using data for el salvador following the massive war related emigration of the 1980s remittances became a significant source of household income throughout the 1990s we use the cox proportional hazard model to examine the determinants of school attendance measuring income from a source that is uncorrelated with parental schooling remittances we find that remittances have a large significant effect on school retention we estimate that while household income net of remittances has a small though significant impact on the hazard of leaving school in rural and urban areas remittances have a much larger impact on the hazard of leaving school in urban areas the effect of remittances is at its smallest 10 times the size of the effect of other income in rural areas the effect of remittances is about 2 6 times that of other income our finding is of interest in that it suggests that subsidizing school attendance particularly in poor areas may have a large impact on school attendance and retention even if parents have low levels of schooling

the social costs of higher food prices some cross country evidence abstract this paper uses cross country data from 34 developing countries to examine the correlation between the real cereal price paid by consumers aggregate calorie intake and the infant mortality rate the results suggest that higher cereal prices across countries are associated with higher infant mortality the elasticity is between 0 2 and 0 6 however this correlation does not exist using time series data for individual countries the results require further investigation nevertheless they suggest that although the short run costs of higher farm prices may not immediately be evident there may be important long run social costs

migration remittances and male and female employment patterns little is known about the labor market impacts of workers remittances despite their magnitude in countries with considerable outmigration reports that families receiving international remittances severely curtail their work efforts are fairly common in the popular press e g robert frank 2001 yet we lack rigorous analyses of how male and female labor supplies respond to increases in remittance income to either support or refute these anecdotal observations according to the neoclassical model of labor leisure choice mark r killingsworth 1983 remittances a source of nonlabor income may lift budget constraints raise reservation wages and through an income effect reduce the employment likelihood and hours worked by remittance receiving individuals the receipt of remittances is usually preceded by the out migration of working aged household members however which may induce changes in the labor supply of nonmigrating household members in order to compensate for forgone income or to defray migration related expenses distinguishing the disruptive effect from the income effect of remittance inflows is problematic as most surveys do not contain detailed information on household outmigration and remittance receipt to the extent that these two effects are expected to have opposite impacts on labor supply however we can assess which effect dominates the impact of remittances on the decision to work has been previously examined by edgard rodriguez and erwin r tiongson 2001 in manila and by edward funkhouser 1992 in managua without accounting for the endogeneity of remittances with respect to labor supply they conclude that remittances reduce employment funkhouser also finds that remittances slightly increase self employment while informative these studies focus on the decision to work and do not consider that without altering employment rates remittances may change the hours worked and or the type of work performed in the receiving economy furthermore the impact may be different on male and female labor supplies and responsiveness to remittance income may vary from rural to urban areas using data from mexico a country with a large and growing remittance inflow we address the following questions how does the employment status and hours worked by men and women vary owing to international remittances do male and female labor supplies differ across various types of employment in rural versus urban areas due to higher remittance inflows

the economic sustainability of certified coffee recent evidence from mexico and peru consumers increasingly act on preferences for a more just and sustainable world by purchasing certified agricultural products using survey data from coffee growers in mexico and peru we explore the economic sustainability of certified coffee looking at conventional fair trade organic and rainforest alliance certified growers the analysis reveals that yields rather than price premiums are most important for increasing net cash returns for coffee growing households given the link between net returns and producer participation in certified coffee schemes the findings suggest that certification norms that permit improving yields are essential for improving grower welfare and attracting and maintaining growers

does the law of one price hold in international financial markets evidence from tick data abstract this paper investigates the validity of the law of one price lop in international financial markets by examining the frequency size and duration of inter market price differentials for borrowing and lending services one way arbitrage using a unique data set for three major capital and foreign exchange markets that covers a period of more than seven months at tick frequency we find that the lop holds on average but numerous economically significant violations of the lop arise the duration of these violations is high enough to make it worthwhile searching for one way arbitrage opportunities in order to minimize borrowing costs and or maximize earnings on given funds we also document that such opportunities decline with the pace of the market and increase with market volatility

factor endowments nontradables prices and measures of openness abstract the familiar dollar index of country openness is obtained essentially by attempting to remove the influence of nontradables prices from data on country price levels with residual price differences hypothesised to measure trade impediments differences in nontradables prices are in turn hypothesised to reflect differences in factor endowments which dollar proxies by gdp per capita this paper examines both the theoretical and empirical biases introduced to estimates of nontradables prices by using this proxy we show that while the approach provides a reasonable approximation on average relatively agricultural land or labour abundant countries are particularly poorly captured by gdp per capita

why do diplomas pay an expanded mincerian framework applied to mexico we compare four explanations for the value of diplomas each of which has implications for unemployment and wage variation amongst graduates most of which have not previously been tested for when seeking to explain the effects of diplomas we test for these implications using a refined econometric framework exploiting idiosyncrasies in mexican labour market and educational institutions premiums in mexico appear to result from diplomas tied to jobs with downwards rigid wages an uncommon but simple explanation the standard explanations including screening are not suggested by mexican data our results illuminate how labour markets segmented by diplomas clear this depends upon the nature of the labour market rigidities exactly as predicted by neoclassical theory

the reversal of large stock price decreases extremely large negative 10 day rates of return are followed on average by largerthan expected positive rates of return over following days this price adjustment lasts approximately 2 days and is observed in a sample of firms that is largely devoid of methodological problems that might explain the reversal phenomenon while perhaps not representing abnormal profit opportunities these reversals present a puzzle as to the length of the price adjustment period such a slow recovery is inconsistent with the notion that market prices quickly reflect relevant information recent research on stock returns has uncovered a substantial number of empirical findings that are broadly inconsistent with popular asset pricing models for example keim and stambaugh 1985 cross 1973 french 1980 gibbons and hess 1981 and rogalski 1984 find evidence of day ofthe week and weekend effects on stock returns while banz 1981 and reinganum 1983 find evidence of a size effect this paper presents evidence of another empirical puzzle consider the behavior of a firm s rate of return on days after it has experienced a large negative one day rate of return less than say 10 observed daily stock returns after such an extreme event are significantly larger than average on following days for a 10 fall the return above average is 1 773 for the day after and rises cumulatively to 2 215 by the second day this multiple day price adjustment is observed in a sample of firms that is largely devoid of methodological problems that might explain the reversal phenomenon the major interest of this phenomenon is the long recovery period of the stock price reversal such a slow recovery is inconsistent with the notion that market prices fully and quickly reflect relevant information

trading off nutrition and education a panel data analysis of the dissimilar welfare effects of organic and fairtrade standards millions of smallholder farmers in developing countries participate in different types of sustainability standards a growing body of literature has analyzed the welfare effects with mixed results yet there are important knowledge gaps first most existing studies have looked at the effects of one standard in one country when comparing between studies it is unclear whether dissimilar outcomes are the result of different standards or different local conditions second most studies have used cross section data so that selectivity issues remain a challenge third existing work has primarily analyzed effects in terms of purely economic indicators such as prices and income ignoring other dimensions of household welfare we address these shortcomings using panel data from small scale coffee producers in uganda and comparing the effects of two of the most popular sustainability standards namely organic and fairtrade welfare effects are analyzed in terms of household expenditures child education and nutrition results show that organic and fairtrade both have positive effects on total consumption expenditures however notable differences are observed in terms of the other outcomes organic contributes to improved nutrition but has no effect on education for fairtrade it is exactly the other way around we explore the mechanisms behind these differences

non traditional crops traditional constraints long term welfare impacts of export crop adoption among guatemalan smallholders this study documents the long term welfare effects of household non traditional agricultural export ntx adoption the analysis uses a unique panel dataset which spans the period 1985 2005 and employs difference in differences estimation to investigate the long term impact of non traditional agricultural export adoption on changes in household consumption status and asset position in the central highlands of guatemala given the heterogeneity in adoption patterns the analysis differentiates the impact estimates based on a classification of households that takes into account the timing and duration of non traditional agricultural export adoption the results show that while on average welfare levels have improved for all households irrespective of adoption status and duration the extent of improvement has varied across groups long term adopters exhibit the smallest increase in the lapse of two decades in spite of some early gains conversely early adopters who withdrew from non traditional agricultural export production after reaping the benefits of the boom period of the 1980s are found to have fared better and shown greater improvements in durable asset position and housing conditions than any other category

privatization and economic growth an empirical investigation from a sample of developing market economies this paper explores the economic determinants of privatization programmes and the macroeconomic impact of this institutional reform on the growth rate of the gdp a sample of thirty five developing market economies is considered over the 1988 92 period probit and tobit models are used to identify the determinants of successful privatization programmes then regressions are run where probabilities probit and expected values tobit are successively included as additional regressors beside the potential influence of other economic policy variables a significant positive effect is highlighted giving evidence of the importance of divestiture the economic effect is found to be stronger when this institutional reform took place in industry or infrastructure

does migration make rural households more productive evidence from mexico abstract the migration of labour out of rural areas and the flow of remittances from migrants to rural households are an increasingly important feature of less developed countries this paper explores ways in which migration influences incomes and productivity of land and human capital in rural households over time using new household survey data from mexico our findings suggest that a massive increase in migration to the united states increased per capita incomes via remittances and also by raising land productivity in migrant sending households they do not support the pessimistic view that migration discourages production in migrant sending economies nor the view implicit in separable agricultural household models that migration and remittances influence household incomes but not production

large market shocks and abnormal closed end fund price behaviour abstract this paper investigates the short term price behaviour of closed end funds following eight large market wide shocks the findings from a sample of 63 funds continuously traded on the london stock exchange indicate that prices overreact relative to equilibrium given by net asset values the speed of reversion in discounts following market wide shocks is slower than that following fund specific shocks of a similar magnitude the post shock persistence in discounts is related more to the ease of arbitrage rather than to liquidity as proxied by fund size or to the speed of recovery in the broader market the discount decays more slowly for those funds that are difficult to arbitrage

sri lanka can conditional cash transfer programs serve as safety nets in keeping children at school and from working when exposed to shocks this brief summarizes the results of a gender impact evaluation study can conditional cash transfer cct programs serve as safety nets in keeping children at school and from working when exposed to shocks conducted the program started in 1997 and still exists today in sri lanka the study observed that income shocks on poor households are known to induce parents to take their children out of school and send them to work when other risk coping instruments are insufficient cct programs where the condition is on school attendance have been shown to be effective in increasing educational achievements and reducing child work shocks are highly prevalent and children have irregular periods of school enrollment children who are taken out of school are less likely to re enroll