wage mobility in the united states this paper examines the mobility of individuals through the wage and earnings distributions using 1979 1991 data from the national longitudinal survey of youth lifetime wages will be more equally distributed than wages from any single year if individuals change position in the wage distribution over time the results suggest that mobility is predominantly within group mobility reducing wage inequality by 12 26 over a four year horizon a detailed examination of within group mobility using year to year estimates of transition probabilities among quintiles of the distribution reveals similar general patterns across all skill groups mobility declined significantly over the years especially at the lower end of the wage and earnings distributions

accuracy of response in labor market surveys evidence and implications this paper examines the extent of response errors in labor market survey data and explores the implications of such errors for economic analysis explicitly examined are responses to questions on industry occupation union status hours worked and wages analyses are based on two sources 1 a special supplement to the january 1977 current population survey that obtained data from workers and their employers and 2 an exact match of workers and their employers interviewed in the employment opportunity pilot project survey the dual nature of these surveys provides a basis for analyzing the effect of response error on a variety of economic analyses including the trade off between wages and risk the wage impact of unionism and the sensitivity of wage determination models to alternative responses to earnings questions

estimating income poverty in the presence of measurement error and missing data problems reliable measures of poverty are an essential statistical tool for public policies aimed at reducing poverty in this article we consider the reliability of income poverty measures based on survey data which are typically plagued by missing data and measurement error neglecting these problems can bias the estimated poverty rates we show how to derive upper and lower bounds for the population poverty rate using the sample evidence an upper bound on the probability of misclassifying people into poor and nonpoor and instrumental or monotone instrumental variable assumptions by using the european community household panel we compute bounds for the poverty rate in 10 european countries and study the sensitivity of poverty comparisons across countries to missing data and measurement error problems supplemental materials for this article may be downloaded from the jbes website

labor supply elasticities overcoming nonclassical measurement error using more accurate hours data we measure the impact of measurement error in labor supply elasticities estimated over recalled usual work hours as is ubiquitous in the literature we employ data on hours of work in diaries collected by the american time use survey 2003 2015 along with the same respondents recalled usual work hours estimates using the latter yield elasticities that are positively biased we argue that this bias arises from the salient effects of differences in wage rates on recalled hours abstract from author

measurement error and misclassification a comparison of survey and administrative data we provide both a theoretical and empirical analysis of the relation between administrative and survey data by distinguishing between different sources of deviations between survey and administrative data we are able to reproduce several stylized facts we illustrate the implications of different error sources for estimation in simple econometric models and find potentially very substantial biases this article shows the sensitivity of some findings in the literature for the assumption that administrative data represent the truth in particular the common finding of substantial mean reversion in survey data largely goes away once we allow for a richer error structure

racial disparities in job finding and offered wages abstractthe extent to which discrimination can explain racial wage gaps is one of the most divisive issues in the social sciences using a newly available data set this paper develops a simple empirical test that under plausible but not innocuous conditions provides a lower bound on the extent of discrimination in the labor market taken at face value our estimates imply that differential treatment accounts for at least one third of the black white wage gap we argue that the patterns in our data are most naturally rationalized through a search matching model in which employers statistically discriminate on the basis of race when hiring unemployed workers but learn about their marginal product over time

wage aspirations and unemployment persistence abstract we use panel data to examine the empirical determinants of the reservation wage in particular the influence of previous wages and consider what this implies for the evolution of the natural rate of unemployment we find that previous wages have a significant but relatively small effect on reservation wages an elasticity between 0 15 and 0 47 we also find considerable differences across genders with previous wages being more important for men and market wages being more important for women overall our results suggest that the reservation wage will adjust quite quickly to shocks

price elasticity of groundwater demand attenuation and amplification bias due to incomplete information measurement errors in both human and natural components of agricultural and environmental systems can be as much a source of estimation bias as omitted variables selfselection simultaneity and reverse causality nonetheless partly because of difficulties in obtaining data there is less literature on measurement error problems than on other endogeneity problems this article examines estimation bias in the price elasticity of groundwater consumption for irrigated agriculture on the intensive margin the price at issue is for the energy used in pumping and pressurizing water for delivery lacking the precise unit irrigation cost previous studies imputed irrigation costs we first consider groundwater irrigation costs and identify factors that can cause measurement errors in the process of imputation under incomplete information about the determinants of irrigation costs we follow this by systematically analyzing the potential bias caused by measurement errors using econometric theory along with monte carlo simulations where appropriate we then quantify actual measurement errors making use of a unique dataset in which energy and groundwater consumption data are matched for individual observations finally we compare regression results using exact irrigation costs as opposed to imputed ones we find evidence of substantial measurement errors resulting in attenuation and amplification bias in the price elasticity of irrigation water consumption on the intensive margin our results indicate that measurement errors in irrigation costs can lead to misleading policy implications related to water and energy pricing as a tool to conserve water we also show that estimating the energy price elasticity of groundwater use is not as straightforward as previously thought

the labor supply response to mismeasured but predictable wage changes most panel data studies of intertemporal labor supply assume classical measurement error recent validation studies refute this assumption in this study i address nonclassical measurement error explicitly i use data on males from the panel study of income dynamics validation study to purge measurement error from the panel study of income dynamics i find a large amount of predictable wage variation in the data even after allowing for measurement error however there is almost no labor supply response to these predictable wage changes therefore failure to control for nonclassical measurement error cannot explain the low estimated labor supply elasticities in other papers

estimation of poverty transition matrices with noisy data summary this paper investigates measurement error biases in estimated poverty transition matrices we compare transition matrices based on survey expenditure data to transition matrices based on measurement error free simulated expenditure the simulation model uses estimates that correct for measurement error in expenditure we find that time varying measurement error in expenditure data magnifies economic mobility roughly 45 of households initially in poverty at time t 1 are found to be out of poverty at time t using data from the korean labor and income panel study when measurement error is removed this drops to between 26 and 31 of households initially in poverty copyright 2016 john wiley sons ltd

the effect of nonfarm income on investment in bulgarian family farming this article documents a relationship between nonfarm income primarily earnings and pensions and agricultural investment in bulgaria specifically expenditures on working capital variable inputs such as feed seed and herbicides and investment in livestock among those with positive spending on farm inputs the estimated elasticity of these expenditures with respect to nonfarm income is 0 14 nonfarm income also has an effect on the number of households that purchase farm animals with an estimated elasticity of 0 35 the use of nonfarm income for farm investment is consistent with the presence of credit constraints as is the fact that less than one percent of farmers report outstanding debts for agricultural purposes yet many farm households take out large unsecured loans for other purposes primarily to cover consumption expenditures implying that credit is available but that farmers prefer not to use borrowed funds to finance agricultural investment this would suggest that increases in the availability of agricultural credit may have little effect on farm outcomes whereas increases in nondebt financed sources of liquidity such as subsidies or transfers may better stimulate investment

income volatility and household consumption the impact of food assistance programs the impact offood assistance programs food stamps in a period of rising income inequality in the united states is analyzed using 1978 92 psid data we assess to what extent food assistance can be viewed as an effective insurance to permanent shocks to income the results show that the program has a substantial consumption smoothing effect in the lowincome population the response of food consumption to a permanent income shock is a third lower after accounting for the monetary value of food stamps

technical change wage inequality and taxes this paper considers the normative implications of technical change for tax policy design a task to talent assignment model of the labor market is embedded into an optimal tax problem technical change modifies equilibrium wage growth across talents and the substitutability of talents across tasks the overall optimal policy response is to reduce marginal income taxes on low to middle incomes while raising those on middle to high incomes the reform favors those in the middle of the income distribution reducing their average taxes while lowering transfers to those at the bottom jel d31 h21 h23 h24 j31 o33

data watch the panel study of income dynamics by collecting annual economic and demographic information from a large and representative sample of u s households for over a quarter century the panel study of income dynamics has compiled a remarkably useful set of microdata this article describes the psid and how its unique longitudinal and in some cases intergenerational features have been used for studies of intertemporal models of labor supply wages employment and job tenure consumption poverty dynamics extended family behavior and the intergenerational transmission of economic status

determinants of income mobility and household poverty dynamics in south africa this article analyses household income mobility among africans in south africa s most populous province kwazulu natal between 1993 and 1998 compared to industrialised and most developing countries mobility has been quite high as might have been expected after the transition in south africa this finding is robust when measurement error is controlled for when disaggregating the sources of mobility it is found that demographic changes and employment changes account for most of the mobility observed which is related to rapidly shifting household boundaries and a very volatile labour market in an environment of high unemployment using a multivariate analysis it can be seen that transitory incomes play a large role four types of poverty traps are found associated with large initial household size poor initial education poor initial asset endowment and poor initial employment access that dominate the otherwise observed regression towards the mean

errors in self reported earnings the role of previous earnings volatility and individual characteristics abstract i report the measurement error in self reported earnings for a developing country using a novel data set the data set consists of two cross sections of the federated states of micronesia fsm wage and salary sectors additionally a subset of the two cross sections may be linked to create a panel administrative data from fsm social security office are matched to the fsm census data for the wage and salary sectors i find that the error in annual self reported earnings is centered on zero additionally i find strong evidence for mean reversion in the data suggesting non classical measurement error i identify the impact of prior years earnings variability on the current reporting of earnings using administrative data on earnings histories prior earnings volatility strongly affects measurement error in current period however the effect of prior shocks diminish significantly over time suggesting that first differencing and fixed effects techniques will not improve accuracy

evidence on the validity of cross sectional and longitudinal labor market data this article investigates error properties of survey reports of labor market variables we use the panel study of income dynamics psid validation study a two wave panel survey of workers employed by a large firm that shared its detailed payroll records individuals reports of annual earnings are fairly accurate errors are negatively related to true earnings reducing bias due to measurement error when earnings are used as an independent variable biases are moderately larger for changes in earnings earnings per hour are less reliably reported than annual earnings biases in estimating earnings functions are relatively small but those in labor supply functions may be important

inflation dynamics when inflation is near zero this paper discusses the likely evolution of u s inflation in the near and medium term on the basis of 1 past u s experience with very low levels of inflation 2 the most recent japanese experience with deflation and 3 recent u s micro evidence on downward nominal wage rigidity our findings question the view that stable long run inflation expectations and downward nominal wage rigidity will provide sufficient support to prices such that deflation can be avoided we show that an inflation model fitted on japanese data over the past 20 years which accounts for both short and long run inflation expectations matches the recent u s inflation experience quite well while the model indicates that u s inflation might be subject to a lower bound it does not rule out a prolonged period of mild deflation going forward in addition our micro evidence on wages suggests no obvious downward rigidity in the firm s wage costs downward rigidity in individual wages notwithstanding as a consequence downward nominal wage rigidity may provide little offset to deflationary pressures in the current u s situation despite some circumstantial evidence that this channel might have been at work in the past

consumption inequality and family labor supply we examine the link between wage and consumption inequality using a life cycle model incorporating consumption and family labor supply decisions we derive analytical expressions for the dynamics of consumption hours and earnings of two earners in the presence of correlated wage shocks nonseparability progressive taxation and asset accumulation the model is estimated using panel data for hours earnings assets and consumption we focus on family labor supply as an insurance mechanism and find strong evidence of smoothing of permanent wage shocks once family labor supply assets and taxes are properly accounted for there is little evidence of additional insurance jel d12 d14 d91 j22 j31

does the choice of consumption measure matter an application to the permanent income hypothesis abstract food consumption in the panel study of income dynamics is used as a proxy for total consumption in many applications in economics including tests of the permanent income hypothesis tests of separability between consumption and leisure and tests of intergenerational altruism food however explains only a small fraction of the variation in total consumption i propose a measure of composite consumption based on predicted wealth and compare it both to food consumption and to skinner s 1987 measure of predicted consumption in a test of the permanent income hypothesis using a log linear intertemporal consumption function i find that food does not reject the permanent income hypothesis but both skinner s predicted consumption and the composite measure proposed here to reject the hypothesis

cross country differences in intergenerational earnings mobility international studies of the extent to which economic status is passed from one generation to the next are important for at least two reasons first each study of a particular country characterizes an important feature of that country s income inequality second comparisons of intergenerational mobility across countries may yield valuable clues about how income status is transmitted across generations and why the strength of that intergenerational transmission varies across countries the e rst section of this paper explains a benchmark measure of intergenerational mobility commonly used in u s studies the second section summarizes comparable empirical e ndings that have accumulated so far for countries other than the united states the third section sketches a theoretical framework for interpreting cross country differences in intergenerational mobility

the effect of teachers unions on education production evidence from union election certifications in three midwestern states using a unique data set on teachers union election certifications from iowa indiana and minnesota i estimate the effect of teachers unions on school district resources and on student educational attainment my empirical strategy allows for nonparametric leads and lags of union age i find no impact on teacher pay or per student district expenditures but that unions increase teacher employment by 5 i find no class size effect because of enrollment increases in unionized districts and i estimate that unions have no net effect on high school dropout rates these findings highlight the importance of correctly measuring unionization status

earnings dynamics and measurement error in matched survey and administrative data this article analyzes earnings dynamics and measurement error using a matched longitudinal sample of individuals survey and administrative earnings in line with previous literature the reported

are wages habit forming evidence from micro data although utility functions play a central role in economics the axiom that utility depends only on the absolute levels of its arguments is rarely tested this paper uses panel data on 2000 british employees who remain with the same employer and who are not promoted from one wave to the next it is shown that one important measure of well being overall job satisfaction is strongly positively correlated with the change in the worker s pay between waves but is unrelated to the current level of pay empirical tests suggest that a reference dependent satisfaction function where individual well being depends on current pay relative to past pay is more consistent with these regression results than are productivity or agency explanations of increasing wage profiles some evidence is presented of greater job satisfaction effects of pay rises for lower paid less well educated and younger workers these results provide some micro evidence consistent with the theory widespread in social science of habituation individuals may become used to any given level of consumption or income as such they tie in with the finding that a country s well being as measured by the average happiness of its citizens is only weakly correlated with its per capita gnp

retrospective reporting of household wealth evidence from the 1983 1989 survey of consumer finances one way to obtain panel like information on household wealth is to ask households about changes in their asset holdings yet the reliability of retrospective data is unclear considering the potential for recall error this article examines the reliability of retrospective reporting using data from the 1983 1989 survey of consumer finances we find substantial inconsistencies between reported net investments in assets with measured changes in holdings inconsistencies are less severe for salient transactions like home sales and more severe for aggregated items like financial assets

financing innovations in uncertain networks filling in roadmap gaps in the semiconductor industry abstract complex technologies are often developed in inter organisational networks as actors try to reduce development costs and uncertainty about the viability of these innovations however as of to date it remains unclear how such innovations are financed collectively under conditions characterised by extreme uncertainty hence we explore how financial resources within innovation networks are mobilised and allocated this question is of particular importance to the development of system technologies that are viable only if all critical components are functional on time we explore this issue by reviewing the development of a radically new system technology for mass manufacturing microchips in the semiconductor industry in this industry technological roadmaps allow actors to identify critical components that still need to be developed these components are the so called roadmap gaps however suppliers can be reluctant to develop the required components at their own expense because of the high uncertainties involved in such cases providing financial support to component suppliers is a central task of innovation networks the empirical analysis shows that semiconductor manufacturers take both an individual and a collective approach to filling roadmap gaps this study contributes to prior research on innovation networks and financial management not only by identifying and clarifying these two approaches but also by revealing under which conditions they are used the findings are particularly relevant to scholars interested in the innovations of complex product systems cops

measuring the well being of the poor using income and consumption we examine the relative merits of consumption and income as measures of the material well being of the poor consumption offers several advantages over income because consumption is a more direct measure of well being than income and is less subject to underreporting bias measurement problems with income are problematic for analyses of changes in well being of the poor because the biases appear to have changed over time and are correlated with government policies on the other hand income is often easier to report and is available for much larger samples providing greater power to test hypotheses we begin by considering the conceptual and pragmatic reasons why consumption might be better or worse than income then we employ several empirical strategies to examine the quality of income and consumption data first we compare income and consumption reports for those with few resources as well as their assets and liabilities to examine measurement errors and under reporting second we examine other evidence on the internal consistency of reports of low income or consumption third we compare how well micro data in standard datasets weight up to match aggregates for classes of income and consumption that are especially important for low resource families fourth we validate income and consumption measures by comparing them to other measures of hardship or material well being although the evidence tends to favor consumption measures our analyses suggest that both measures should be used to assess the material well being of the poor

the cyclicality of real wages within employer employee matches using data from the panel study of income dynamics the author examines the cyclicality of wages within employer employee matches for the years 1970 91 recent research on wage cyclicality has suggested that wages are very procyclical tending to rise and fall with economic upturns and downturns even for workers who remain with the same employer the author finds however that the evidence for wage procyclicality within the matches he examines is rather weak except for the small group of workers who were paid by piece rate or commissions despite having acyclical wage rates men who were paid hourly had earnings movements that were very procyclical salaries exhibited little cyclicality but salaried workers who had income sources from bonuses commissions or overtime had procyclical earnings the results suggest that the increasing prevalence of incentive based pay will increase the procyclicality of wages within matches

consumption volatility liquidity constraints and household welfare we evaluate the impact of increased income uncertainty and financial liberalisation in the us on consumption volatility and household welfare we estimate euler equations and measure the volatility of unpredictable changes in consumption as the squared residuals we directly control for liquidity constraints using survey of consumer finances data on access to credit and document that despite the increase in household debt between 1983 and 2007 there was no decline in the proportion of liquidity constrained households consumption volatility increased significantly over this period especially for liquidity constrained households indicating substantial welfare losses

intertemporal substitution in labor supply evidence from micro data the sensitivity of the supply of labor to intertemporal variation in the wage is an important issue in macroeconomics the analysis of social security and pensions and the study of life cycle patterns of work this paper explores two approaches to the measurement of intertemporal substitution that have appeared in the literature the first approach is to use consumption to control for wealth and unobserved expectations about future wages in the labor supply equation the second approach is to estimate a first difference equation for hours in which labor supply from the previous period serves as a control for wealth and wage expectations the results indicate that intertemporal substitution elasticity for married men is positive but small

inter industry wage differentials revisited wage volatility and the option value of mobility analysis of data from the psid reveals that idiosyncratic wage volatility varies inversely with inter industry wage differentials and is positively correlated with both returns to industry tenure and rates of inter industry mobility an incomplete markets life cycle model in which inter industry mobility decisions and wage differentials are endogenously determined in equilibrium is then developed and shown to be capable of rationalizing these features of the data in the model the ability of worker to switch industries generates option value that is large enough to offset the standard risk premium that workers demand for exposure to excess wage volatility

are earnings inequality and mobility overstated the impact of non classical measurement error abstract measures of inequality and mobility based on self reported earnings reflect attributes of both the joint distribution of earnings across time and the joint distribution of measurement error and earnings while classical measurement error would increase measures of inequality and mobility there is substantial evidence that measurement error in earnings is not classical in this paper we present the analytical links between nonclassical measurement error and some summary measures of inequality and mobility the empirical importance of nonclassical measurement error is explored using the survey of income and program participation sipp matched to tax records we find that the effects of nonclassical measurement error are large however these nonclassical effects are largely offsetting when estimating mobility as measured by the intertemporal correlation in earnings as a result sipp estimates of the correlation are similar to estimates based on tax records though sipp estimates of inequality

the macroeconomic implications of rising wage inequality in the united states in recent decades american workers have faced a rising college premium a narrowing gender gap and increasing wage volatility this paper explores the quantitative and welfare implications of these changes the framework is an incomplete markets life cycle model in which individuals choose education intrafamily time allocation and savings given the observed history of the u s wage structure the model replicates key trends in cross sectional inequality in hours worked earnings and consumption recent cohorts enjoy welfare gains on average as higher relative wages for college graduates and for women translate into higher educational attainment and a more even division of labor within the household

testing for full insurance using exogenous information we strongly reject the full insurance hypothesis using testing variables that are not decision variables for the households under investigation we find that households are not insured against changes in the unemployment rate associated with the household head s occupational category using this exogenous information we also investigate the appropriateness of exogeneity assumptions on idiosyncratic variables that have been used as testing variables in the full insurance literature it is shown that several exogeneity assumptions made in the existing literature are potentially problematic

consumption and labor supply with partial insurance an analytical framework we develop a model with partial insurance against idiosyncratic wage shocks to quantify risk sharing closed form solutions are obtained for equilibrium allocations and for moments of the joint distribution of consumption hours and wages we prove identification and demonstrate how labor supply data are informative about risk sharing the model estimated with us data over the period 1967 2006 implies that i 39 percent of permanent wage shocks pass through to consumption ii the share of wage risk insured increased until the early 1980s and iii preference heterogeneity is important in accounting for observed dispersion in consumption and hours jel e21 e23 e31 e52

estimates of year to year volatility in earnings and in household incomes from administrative survey and matched data abstract we document trends in the volatility in earnings and household incomes between 1985 and 2005 in three different data sources administrative earnings records the survey of income and program participation sipp matched to administrative earnings records and sipp survey data in all data sources we find a substantial amount of year to year volatility in workers earnings and household incomes in the data sources that contain administrative earnings we find that volatility has been roughly constant and has even declined slightly since the mid 1980s these findings differ from what is found using survey data and what has been reported in previous studies

labor market search and schooling investment we generalize a search matching and bargaining model to allow individuals to acquire productivity enhancing schooling prior to labor market entry in general search frictions and weakness in bargaining position contribute to underinvestment in schooling from an efficiency perspective using estimates of a general equilibrium version of the model in which firm vacancy creation decisions are included we find that minimum wages and schooling subsidies improve aggregate welfare but have very different welfare impacts across the ability distribution in particular policies that maximize the average welfare of workers have strongly negative effects on the welfare of the least able

equilibrium search and tax credit reform an empirical equilibrium job search model with wage posting is developed to analyze the labor market impact of uk tax reforms the model allows for a rich characterization of the labor market with hours responses accurate representations of the tax and transfer system and both worker and firm heterogeneity the model is estimated with pre reform longitudinal survey data using a semi parametric estimation technique and the impact of actual tax reform policies is simulated the model predicts that the british working families tax credit and contemporaneous reforms increased employment with equilibrium effects found to play a relatively minor role

marketing production coordination in channels of distribution abstract in this paper we analyze the effects of functional horizontal decentralization by a channel member on the performance of an industrial channel of distribution we use the model of eliashberg j steinberg r 1987 management science 33 981 1000 which describes a channel of distribution consisting of a manufacturer and a value adding distributor we allow the distributor to decentralize decision making between his marketing and production functions our results show that functional decentralization at the distributor level increases the price sensitivity of the distributor concerning the price he faces from the manufacturer causes a shift in the distributor s demand curve increases the distributor s inventory activities in terms of both quantity and time frame and under certain conditions increases the manufacturer s inventory as expected the decentralized distributor has a less coordinated pricing policy vis a vis the production policy using numerical means we show that functional decentralization can improve the overall channel profitability i e for both manufacturer and distributor this counter intuitive result suggests that in our non repeated perfect information game setting functional decentralization can yield a pareto dominant equilibrium outcome where both the distributor and manufacturer are better off even though it is only the distributor who is changing his organizational decision making

does the confucius institute impact international travel to china a panel data analysis this article examines the impact of confucius institutes on inbound travel to china we estimate a panel gravity model of inbound tourism flows to china between 2004 and 2010 we use a poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimator to control for heteroscedasticity endemic in gravity models santos silva and tenreyro 2006 we find that the presence of confucius institute s in the source country increases overall tourism in general and business and worker tourists in particular

children time allocation and consumption insurance we study choices of households deciding on consumption and allocation of spouses time to work leisure and child care with uncertainty the allocation of goods and time over the life cycle also

exploring differences in employment between household and establishment data using a large data set that links individual current population survey cps records to employer reported administrative data we document substantial discrepancies in basic measures of employment status that persist even after controlling for known definitional differences between the two data sources we hypothesize that reporting discrepancies should be most prevalent for marginal workers and for marginal or nonstandard jobs and we find systematic associations between the incidence of reporting discrepancies and observable person and job characteristics that are consistent with this hypothesis the paper discusses the implications of the reported findings for both micro and macro labor market analysis