digital contracts simple tools for pricing complex derivatives this article presents a simple unified approach for valuing a variety of financial assets using digital contracts three types of digitals are used a digital option paying either one dollar or nothing a digital share paying nothing or converting into one share of the underlying asset and a first touch digital paying one dollar the first time that the price of the underlying stock moves into some specified region it is shown how the values of these three types of digitals can be determined for a wide variety of payoff events and how they can be combined to price complex contracts copyright 2000 by university of chicago press

digital contracts and price manipulation corporate insiders holding derivative contracts on their firm s stock have an incentive to engage in stock price manipulation i examine several derivative contracts susceptible to manipulation and the price impact of the insiders strategic behavior digital contracts the basic building blocks for valuing complex financial derivatives are vulnerable to manipulation the impact of the strategies from holding digital contracts is consistent with an implied volatility skew and volatility clustering even seemingly innocuous derivatives such as ordinary bull spreads generate these manipulation incentives this has strong implications for corporate policy since firms often use option spreads in their stock repurchase programs

does neighborhood income mix affect earnings of adults new evidence from sweden this paper contributes to the literature on obtaining unbiased estimates of neighborhood effects explored in the context of a centralized social welfare state we employ a longitudinal database comprised of all working age adults in metropolitan sweden 1991 1999 to investigate the degree to which neighborhood income mix relates to subsequent labor incomes of adults and how this relationship varies by gender and employment status we control for unobserved time invariant individual characteristics by estimating a first difference equation of changes in average incomes between the 1991 1995 and 1996 1999 periods we further control for unobserved time varying characteristics through an analysis of non movers these methods substantially reduce the magnitude of the apparent effect of neighborhood shares of low middle and high income males nevertheless statistically and substantively significant neighborhood effects persist though relationships are nonlinear and vary by gender and employment status males who are not fully employed appear most sensitive to neighborhood economic mix in all contexts

correlations of brothers earnings and intergenerational transmission correlations between parent and child earnings reflect intergenerational mobility and more broadly correlations between siblings earnings reflect shared community and family background these earnings relationships capture important aspects of relations in socioeconomic status more generally we estimate intergenerational transmission and sibling correlations of life cycle earnings jointly within a unified framework that nests previous models using data on the danish population of father first son second son triads we find that intergenerational effects account for on average 72 percent of sibling correlations this share is higher than all previous studies because we allow for heterogeneous intergenerational transmission between families sibling correlations exhibit a u shape over the working life consistent with differences in human capital investments between families

the subjective and objective evaluation of incentive stock options owners of incentive options invariably hold undiversified portfolios this paper derives a model for the subjective and objective values of such options the subjective value the value to the holder is less than the market value because the option is held in an undiversified portfolio and because it is exercised suboptimally from the market perspective the objective value is the cost to the firm of issuing the option and lies between the market and subjective values this value recognizes the suboptimal exercise but not the undiversified discount the model which is the black scholes model with modified parameters is simple to use

family welfare cultures strong intergenerational correlations in various types of welfare use have fuelled a long standing debate over whether welfare receipt in one generation causes welfare participation in the next generation some claim a causal relationship in welfare receipt across generations has created a culture in which welfare use reinforces itself through the family others argue the determinants of poverty or poor health are correlated across generations so that children s welfare participation is associated with but not caused by parental welfare receipt however there is little empirical evidence to sort out these claims in this paper we investigate the existence and importance of family welfare cultures in the context of norway s disability insurance di system to overcome the challenge of correlated unobservables across generations we take advantage of random assignment of judges to di applicants whose cases are initially denied some appeal judges are systematically more lenient which leads to random variation in the probability a parent will be allowed di using this exogenous variation we find strong evidence that welfare receipt in one generation causes welfare participation in the next generation when a parent is allowed di their adult child s participation over the next five years increases by 6 percentage points this effect grows over time rising to 12 percentage points after ten years while these findings are specific to our setting they serve to highlight that welfare reforms can have long lasting effects on program participation since any original effect on the current generation could be reinforced by changing the participation behavior of their children as well the detailed nature of our data allows us to compare the intergenerational transmission with spillover effects in other networks and to explore mechanisms our findings point to a special link between parents and their children with little impact due to close neighbors di participation we find suggestive evidence that what may change as a result of a parent being allowed di is their children s beliefs about the efficacy of trying to get on to the di program or their attitudes about di participation and its stigma

local political business cycles evidence from philippine municipalities abstract this paper establishes the existence of short term political business cycles in the philippines over the period 2003 2009 examining a balanced panel of 1143 municipalities shows that employment levels increase in the two pre electoral quarters and drop sharply in the two quarters following elections further results are consistent with the cycles being generated by incumbents attempts to increase their chances of re election cycles are stronger in sectors that incumbents are more able to influence and when they expect stronger electoral competition evidence suggests that these cycles are detrimental to development

a model of credit risk optimal policies and asset prices this article studies an economy with borrowers firms or individuals under costly default borrowers defaulting under adverse economic conditions may despite incurring default costs emerge as wealthier than nonborrowers asset substitution is generally not pronounced although a larger risk exposure by borrowers may also occur and then binary options emerge as useful credit derivatives the asset value dynamics are endogenously determined and shown to exhibit stochastic mean and volatility in contrast to many credit risk models in equilibrium the market level is increased decreased in economic downturns upturns by the presence of credit risk

self selection of emigrants theory and evidence on stochastic dominance in observable and unobservable characteristics the roy model has more precise predictions about the self selection of migrants than previously realised the conditions shown to result in positive or negative selection in terms of expected earnings also imply a stochastic dominance relationship between the earnings distributions of migrants and non migrants we test these predictions using the danish full population administrative data we find strong evidence of positive self selection of emigrants in terms of pre emigration earnings and residual earnings the income distribution for the migrants almost stochastically dominates the distribution for the non migrants decomposing the self selection in total earnings reveals that unobserved abilities play the dominant role

is the correlation in welfare participation across generations spurious abstract this paper asks whether the observed correlation in welfare participation across generations reflects causal links or unobservables that are correlated across generations if the correlation is spurious then reducing one generations welfare participations will have no effect on the next generation the panel study of income dynamics is used to estimate two types of models that explicitly take account of correlated unobservables these models indicate that correlated unobservables are important in explaining the intergenerational correlation in welfare participation among blacks but not non blacks however the correlation across generations continues to be significant for blacks even after taking account of the correlated unobservables

who is affected by neighbourhood income mix gender age family employment and income differences this paper analyses the degree to which the mixture of low middle and high income males in the neighbourhood affects the subsequent earnings of individuals and aims to test explicitly the degre

data watch the panel study of income dynamics by collecting annual economic and demographic information from a large and representative sample of u s households for over a quarter century the panel study of income dynamics has compiled a remarkably useful set of microdata this article describes the psid and how its unique longitudinal and in some cases intergenerational features have been used for studies of intertemporal models of labor supply wages employment and job tenure consumption poverty dynamics extended family behavior and the intergenerational transmission of economic status

the selection of high skilled emigrants we measure selection among high skilled emigrants from germany using predicted earnings migrants to less equal countries are positively selected relative to nonmigrants while migrants to more equal countries are negatively selected consistent with the prediction in borjas 1987 positive selection to less equal countries reflects university quality and grades and negative selection to more equal countries reflects university subject and gender migrants to the united states are highly positively selected and concentrated in stem fields our results highlight the relevance of the borjas model for high skilled individuals when credit constraints and other migration barriers are unlikely to be binding

an intertemporal general equilibrium model of asset prices this paper develops a continuous time general equilibrium model of a simple but complete economy and uses it to examine the behavior of asset prices in this model asset prices and their stochastic properties are determined endogenously one principal result is a partial differential equation which asset prices must satisfy the solution of this equation gives the equilibrium price of any asset in terms of the underlying real variables in the economy in this paper we develop a general equilibrium asset pricing model for use in applied research an important feature of the model is its integration of real and financial markets among other things the model endogenously determines the stochastic process followed by the equilibrium price of any financial asset and shows how this process depends on the underlying real variables the model is fully consistent with rational expectations and maximizing behavior on the part of all agents our framework is general enough to include many of the fundamental forces affecting asset markets yet it is tractable enough to be specialized easily to produce specific testable results furthermore the model can be extended in a number of straightforward ways consequently it is well suited to a wide variety of applications for example in a companion paper cox ingersoll and ross 7 we use the model to develop a theory of the term structure of interest rates many studies have been concerned with various aspects of asset pricing under uncertainty the most relevant to our work are the important papers on intertemporal asset pricing by merton 19 and lucas 16 working in a continuous time framework merton derives a relationship among the equilibrium expected rates of return on assets he shows that when investment opportunities are changing randomly over time this relationship will include effects which have no analogue in a static one period model lucas considers an economy with homogeneous individuals and a single consumption good which is produced by a number of processes the random output of these processes is exogenously determined and perishable assets are defined as claims to all or a part of the output of a process and the equilibrium determines the asset prices our theory draws on some elements of both of these papers like merton we formulate our model in continuous time and make full use of the analytical tractability that this affords the economic structure of our model is somewhat similar to that of lucas however we include both endogenous production and

illegal immigration border enforcement and relative wages evidence from apprehensions at the u s mexico border we examine illegal immigration in the united states from mexico over the period 1976 1995 one challenge is that we do not observe the number of individuals that attempt to enter the united states illegally we only observe the number of individuals apprehended attempting to cross the u s mexico border illegally based on a simple migration model we postulate the existence of an apprehensions function which expresses apprehensions at the border as a function of illegal attempts to cross the border and u s border enforcement effort we find that a 10 decrease in the mexican real wage leads to a 7 5 to 8 8 increase in apprehensions at the border excerpt

changes of numeraire for pricing futures forwards and options a change of numeraire argument is used to derive a general option parity or equivalence result relating american call and put prices and to obtain new expressions for futures and forward prices the general parity result unifies and extends a number of existing results the new futures and forward pricing formulas are often simpler to compute in multifactor models than existing alternatives we also extend previous work by deriving a general formula relating exchange options to ordinary call options a number of applications to diffusion models including stochastic volatility stochastic interest rate and stochastic dividend rate models and jump diffusion models are examined a self financing portfolio is called a numeraire if security prices measured in units of this portfolio admit an equivalent martingale measure the most commonly used numeraire is the reinvested short rate process the corresponding equivalent martingale measure is the risk neutral measure geman el karoui and rochet 1995 show that other numeraires can simplify many asset pricing problems in this article we build on their results and using the reinvested asset price as the numeraire unify and extend the literature on option parity or equivalence results relating american call and put prices for asset and futures options the same numeraire change is used to obtain new pricing formulas for futures and forwards that are often simpler to compute in multifactor models finally we use a numeraire change to simplify exchange option pricing extending a similar result in geman el karoui and rochet to dividend paying assets the change of numeraire method is most intuitive in the context of foreign currency derivative securities as discussed by grabbe 1983 an american call option to buy 1 dm with dollar price process s for k dollars is equivalent to an american put option to sell k dollars with dm price process k s for a strike price of 1 dm the dollar price of the call must therefore equal the product of the current exchange rate s0 and the dm price of the put the call price is computed using the dollar value of a u s i am grateful to kerry back the editor and costis skiadas for their many helpful suggestions thanks also to peter demarzo matt jackson naveen khanna david marshall robert mcdonald jim moser phyllis payette and an anonymous referee for their comments this article subsumes schroder 1992

intergenerational income mobility in the united states social scientists and policy analysts have long expressed concern about the extent of intergenerational income mobility in the united states but remarkably little empirical evidence is available the few existing estimates of the intergenerational correlation in income have been biased downward by measurement error unrepresentative samples or both new estimates based on intergenerational data from the panel study of income dynamics imply that the intergenerational correlation in long run income is at least 0 4 indicating dramatically less mobility than suggested by earlier research copyright 1992 by american economic association

an economic model of welfare stigma perhaps the most basic assumption of the economic theory of consumer demand is that more is better than less virtually all of the major propositions of consumer theory can in a certain sense be derived from the assumption that goods are good interestingly however this tenet seems to be violated by the behavior of many individuals in the low income population for many turn out to be eligible for a positive welfare benefit but do not in fact join the welfare rolls for example it has been estimated that in 1970 only about 69 percent of the families eligible for afdc aid to families with dependent children participated in the program see richard michel 1980 the corresponding percentage for afdc u the program for which families with an unemployed male are eligible was only 43 percent and the participation rate in the food stamp program was only 38 percent see maurice mcdonald 1977 this phenomenon has puzzled many investigators because such individuals do not locate on the boundaries of their budget sets consequently most investigators ignore the problem when studying the effects of welfare programs on behavior in this paper this seemingly irrational rejection of an increase in income is modeled as resulting from welfare stigma that is from disutility arising from participation in a welfare program per se 1 the existence of stigma has been amply documented in the sociological literature patrick horan and patricia austin 1974 lee rainwater 1979 where interviews of recipients have often uncovered feelings of lack of self respect and negative self characterizations from participation in welfare nevertheless this phenomenon has not been modeled and many questions consequently remain when is the disutility of participation strong enough to prevent participation shouldn t we expect individuals to weigh the disutility of participation against the potential benefit in their decisions what is the elasticity of participation with respect to the potential benefit also in a slightly different vein how are the work disincentives of welfare affected by stigma these questions have been given scant attention by economists yet they are crucial for our ability to predict the impact of various welfare programs on the lowincome population here these questions are addressed by modeling nonparticipation as a utility maximizing decision the model is developed and estimated for the afdc program 2 the model posits an individual utility function containing not just disposable income but

breaking the cycle the effect of education on welfare receipt among children of welfare recipients abstract we examine the impact of high school graduation on the probability individuals from welfare backgrounds use welfare themselves our data consist of administrative educational records for grade 12 students in a canadian province linked with their own and their parents welfare records we address potential endogeneity problems by 1 controlling for ability using past test scores 2 using an instrument for graduation based on school principal fixed effects and 3 using a heckman singer type unobserved heterogeneity estimator graduation would reduce the probability of welfare receipt of drop outs by 1 2 to 3 4 effects are larger for individuals from troubled family backgrounds and low income neighbourhoods

return migration wage differentials and the optimal migration duration in simple static models migration increases with the wage differential between host and home country in a dynamic framework and if migrations are temporary the size of the migrant population in the host country depends also on the migration duration this paper analyses optimal migration durations in a model which rationalises the decision of the migrant to return to his home country despite persistently higher wages in the host country the analysis shows that if migrations are temporary the optimal migration duration may decrease if the wage differential grows larger using micro data for germany the second part of the paper provides empirical evidence which is compatible with this hypothesis

fortunate sons new estimates of intergenerational mobility in the united states using social security earnings data previous studies relying on short term averages of fathers earnings have estimated the intergenerational elasticity ige in earnings to be approximately 0 4 due to persistent transitory fluctuations these estimates have been biased down by approximately 30 or more using administrative data containing the earnings histories of parents and children the ige is estimated to be around 0 6 this suggests that the united states is substantially less mobile than previous research indicated estimates of intergenerational mobility are significantly lower for families with little or no wealth offering empirical support for theoretical models that predict differences due to borrowing constraints

can a brain drain be good for growth in the source economy this paper analyzes the interaction between income distribution human capital accumulation and migration it shows that when migration is not a certainty a brain drain may increase average productivity and equality in the source economy even though average productivity is a positive function of past average levels of human capital in an economy it is also shown how the temporary possibility of emigration may permanently increase the average level of productivity of an economy

selection on observed and unobserved variables assessing the effectiveness of catholic schools in this paper we measure the effect of catholic high school attendance on educational attainment and test scores because we do not have a good instrumental variable for catholic school attendance we develop new estimation methods based on the idea that the amount of selection on the observed explanatory variables in a model provides a guide to the amount of selection on the unobservables we also propose an informal way to assess selectivity bias based on measuring the ratio of selection on unobservables to selection on observables that would be required if one is to attribute the entire effect of catholic school attendance to selection bias we use our methods to estimate the effect of attending a catholic high school on a variety of outcomes our main conclusion is that catholic high schools substantially increase the probability of graduating from high school and more tentatively attending college we find little evidence of an effect on test scores

analyzing the length of welfare spells abstract this paper studies the determinants of the length of individual spells of welfare focusing on how the length of a spell affects the probability of its termination the analysis utilizes six years of monthly data on time spent in the afdc program among female household heads a variety of duration dependence models are estimated monthly afdc participation does not show strong evidence of duration dependence two distinct groups appear to utilize welfare one with a very low and constant probability of leaving welfare and a second group which is more affected by time on the program

immigrant selection in the oecd in this paper we examine the determinants of educational selectivity in immigration using immigrant stock data for 70 source countries and 21 oecd destination countries as observed in the year 2000 2001 we develop a variant of the roy model to estimate the determinants of educational selectivity two key findings emerge first the effect of the skill premium which is at the core of the roy model can be observed only after we take into account the poverty constraints operating in the source countries second cultural similarities colonial legacies and physical distance are often more important determinants of educational selectivity than wage incentives or selective immigration policy

the impact of mass migration on the israeli labor market mass migration from the former soviet union increased the israeli population by 12 in the first half of the 1990s this exodus was precipitated by the lifting of emigration restrictions in an unstable ussr and by the open immigration policy of israel toward soviet jews who faced more restrictive entry policies elsewhere i use this natural experiment to study the impact of immigration on the labor market outcomes of native israelis ols yields significant reductions in wages and small reductions in employment however ols is biased if the distribution of immigrants across occupations in israel was not exogenous to relative wage and employment conditions i instrument for the entry of russians into an occupation in israel using information on their former occupations in the ussr there is a significant positive correlation between the former presence of the immigrants in an occupation in the ussr and their presence in that occupation in israel but the previous occupational choices of russians abroad were independent of israeli wage and employment growth subsequent to their migration iv estimates indicate that immigration did not have an adverse impact on native israeli labor market outcomes

family background and income during the rise of the welfare state brother correlations in income for swedish men born 1932 1968 we investigate if the association between family background and income in sweden has changed for men born between 1932 and 1968 our main finding is that the share of the variance in long run income that is attributable to family background the so called brother correlation in income has fallen by some 17 from 0 49 for the cohorts of brothers born in the early 1930s to below 0 32 for the cohorts born around 1950 from then on the correlations have inched back up to around 0 37 we report suggestive evidence that the decline is driven by changes in education

mobility and the return to education testing a roy model with multiple markets self selected migration presents one potential explanation for why observed returns to a college education in local labor markets vary widely even though u s workers are highly mobile to assess the impact of self selection on estimated returns this paper first develops a roy model of mobility and earnings where workers choose in which of the 50 states plus the district of columbia to live and work available estimation methods are either infeasible for a selection model with so many alternatives or place potentially severe restrictions on earnings and the selection process this paper develops an alternative econometric methodology that combines lee s 1983 parametric maximum order statistic approach to reduce the dimensionality of the error terms with more recent work on semiparametric estimation of selection models e g ahn and powell 1993 the resulting semiparametric correction is easy to implement and can be adapted to a variety of other polychotomous choice problems the empirical work which uses 1990 u s census data confirms the role of comparative advantage in mobility decisions the results suggest that self selection of higher educated individuals to states with higher returns to education generally leads to upward biases in ols estimates of the returns to education in state specific labor markets while the estimated returns to a college education are significantly biased correcting for the bias does not narrow the range of returns across states consistent with the finding that the corrected return to a college education differs across the u s the relative state to state migration flows of college versus high school educated individuals respond strongly to differences in the return to education and amenities across states

the informational content of surnames the evolution of intergenerational mobility and assortative mating we propose a new methodology for measuring intergenerational mobility in economic well being our method is based on the joint distribution of surnames and economic outcomes it circumvents the need for intergenerational panel data a long standing stumbling block for understanding mobility it does so by using cross sectional data alongside a calibrated structural model to recover the traditional intergenerational elasticity measures our main idea is simple if inheritance is important for economic outcomes then rare surnames should predict economic outcomes in the cross section this is because rare surnames are indicative of familial linkages if the number of rare surnames is small this approach will not work however rare surnames are abundant in the highly skewed nature of surname distributions from most western societies we develop a model that articulates this idea and shows that the more important is inheritance the more informative will be surnames this result is robust to a variety of different assumptions about fertility and mating we apply our method using the 2001 census from catalonia a large region of spain we use educational attainment as a proxy for overall economic well being a calibration exercise results in an estimate of the intergenerational correlation of educational attainment of 0 60 we also find evidence suggesting that mobility has decreased among the different generations of the 20th century a complementary analysis based on sibling correlations confirms our results and provides a robustness check on our method our model and our data allow us to examine one possible explanation for the observed decrease in mobility we find that the degree of assortative mating has increased over time overall we argue that our method has promise because it can tap the vast mines of census data that are available in a heretofore unexploited manner

an analysis of the impact of sample attrition on the second generation of respondents in the michigan panel study of income dynamics only a few studies have tried to estimate the trend in the elasticity of children s economic status with respect to parents economic status and these studies produce conflicting results in an attempt to reconcile these findings we use the panel study

income maximization and the selection and sorting of international migrants abstract two prominent features of international labor movements are that the more educated are more likely to emigrate positive selection and more educated migrants are more likely to settle in destination countries with high rewards to skill positive sorting using data on emigrant stocks by schooling level and source country in oecd destinations we find that a simple model of income maximization can account for both phenomena results on selection show that migrants for a source destination pair are more educated relative to non migrants the larger is the absolute skill related difference in earnings between the destination country and the source results on sorting indicate that the relative stock of more educated migrants in a destination is increasing in the absolute earnings difference between high and low skilled workers we use our framework to compare alternative specifications of international migration estimate the magnitude of migration costs by source destination pair and assess the contribution of wage differences to how migrants sort themselves across destination countries

unobservable family and individual contributions to the distributions of income and wealth this paper uses combinations of full brothers half brothers and fathers and sons to measure the effect of common family background on a household s income and wealth while the data are drawn from a nineteenth century population the intraclass correlation for income ranges from 13 to 18 which is similar to that found in modern samples intraclass correlations for wealth are significantly higher 18 35 than are those for income intraclass correlations of half brothers compared to those for full brothers suggest that fathers play a dominant role in the transmission of the common family effect when unobserved background is decomposed into individual and family effects the individual effect dominates the family effect for income while the family effect dominates the individual effect for wealth

premarital childbearing and welfare receipt the role of mothers receipt this study uses the 1968 91 panel study of income dynamics psid to examine the relationship between mothers receipt of aid to families with dependent children afdc welfare benefits and their d

the intergenerational transmission of welfare receipt a nonparametric bounds analysis using a nonparametric bounding method and data from the panel study of income dynamics i examine the effect that growing up in a household that receives aid to families with dependent children af

you can t take it with you immigrant assimilation and the portability of human capital the national origin of an individual s human capital is a crucial determinant of its value education and labor market experience acquired abroad are significantly less valued than human capital obtained domestically this difference can fully explain the earnings disadvantage of immigrants relative to comparable natives in israel variation in the return to foreign schooling across origin countries may reflect differences in its quality and compatibility with the host labor market the return to foreign experience is generally insignificant acquiring additional education following immigration appears to confer a compound benefit by raising the return to education acquired abroad

self selection and the earnings of immigrants this paper analyzes the way in which the earnings of the immigrant population may be expected to differ from the earnings of the native population because of the endogeneity of the decision to migrate the empirical study shows that differences in the u s earnings of immigrants with the same measured skills but from different home countries are attributable to variations in political and economic conditions in the countries of origin at the time of migration excerpt

a longitudinal analysis of sibling correlations in economic status numerous previous studies have used sibling correlations to measure the importance of family background as a determinant of economic status the sibling correlations estimated in these studies however have been depressed by a failure to distinguish transitory and permanent income variation and in some cases by overly homogeneous samples this paper presents a methodology to address these problems and applies it to longitudinal data from the panel study of income dynamics our main conclusion is that family background exerts greater influence on economic status than has been indicated by most earlier research

who leaves deciphering immigrant self selection from a developing country abstract using a novel data set from a developing country the federated states of micronesia fsm i analyze an emigration flow to the united states that has no legal barriers to entry and contains detailed information on the immigrant at home and in the united states i find that highly educated workers relative to the home country average have the highest likelihood of migrating from the fsm to the united states i also compare the premigration wages for the migrants and an observationally equivalent matched nonmigrant group and find that there is a positive and statistically significant difference between the two groups indicating that immigrants are also positively selected on unobserved characteristics the observed selection is consistent with the relatively large differences in home country and destination skill prices at the highest skill levels information on the immigrants characteristics before migration is central to my analysis of determining the nature of immigrant self selection on

the intergenerational transfer of welfare dependency some statistical evidence does a mother s welfare receipt increase the future dependency of her children does the welfare system thus stimulate the dependency of future generations parameter estimates reported here suggest such intergenerational effects the sample comprises young girls and their mothers after control for observed and unobserved heterogeneity a mother s welfare participation is found to increase her daughter s later welfare dependency copyright 1992 by mit press

are immigrants favorably self selected one of the standard propositions in the migration literature is that migrants tend to be favorably self selected for labor market success that is economic migrants are described as tending on average to be more able ambitious aggressive entrepreneurial or otherwise more favorably selected than similar individuals who choose to remain in their place of origin in recent years there have been challenges to the general proposition of the favorable selectivity of migrants in addressing this issue this paper considers alternative specifications of the migration model that are relevant for the issue of migrant selectivity excerpt

immigrant selectivity and wages the evidence for women in an effort to extend the analysis of selectivity to female immigrants this paper examines the impact of economic conditions at the time of migration on the subsequent wages of foreign born women in the united states in addition the variables chosen to describe the migration decision have been expanded to include the effects of household status and immigration policy these results are compared to previous results for men and provide additional evidence about how the context of the migration decision affects the subsequent success of immigrants in the united states the sample for this project comes from the april 1983 current population survey and consists of married native and foreign born women between the ages of 16 and 64 excerpt

the panel study of income dynamics after fourteen years an evaluation this article considers the representativeness of the panel study of income dynamics psid over its 14 year history from 1968 to 1981 given the dynamics of entry and exit from the panel by 1981 40 of the original members had left the sample and were replaced by new entrants who joined either existing households or new households being formed by members of the original sample we consider the distribution of demographic characteristics and earnings equations over time and we compare the psid with the current population survey cps by either approach we find little evidence that the psid has become unrepresentative

does high inequality attract high skilled immigrants this study examines how the sources and levels of income inequality affect how a country attracts and retains high skilled workers with parameter values that yield realistic levels of emigration our model shows that emigration rates increase with education when the returns to education are higher abroad however the relationship between unobservable skills residual wages and emigration can display an inverse u shaped pattern if unobservable skills are composed of both general and country specific skills using data on israeli emigrants before they decide to emigrate we find strong empirical evidence in support of the model s predictions

college choice and subsequent earnings results using swedish sibling data college choice and subsequent earnings results using swedish sibling data this paper investigates the relationship between college choice and annual earnings using within family variation in college choice the results show that earnings vary significantly between students who graduated from different types of colleges and the earnings premium is larger for those who graduated at an old university do birth order and family size matter for intergenerational income mobility evidence from sweden previous studies of intergenerational income mobility have not considered potential birth order or family size effects in the estimated income elasticity this paper estimates the intergenerational income elasticity by birth order position and family size the main finding of this paper is that the elasticity tends to decrease with birth order for a given family size especially for fathers and sons a comparison of family and neighborhood effects on grades test scores educational attainment and income evidence from sweden this paper compares sibling and neighborhood correlations in school performance educational attainment and income as a way to learn whether the neighborhood where a child grows up in might explain parts of the sibling similarities found in previous sibling correlation studies the results show that living in the same neighborhood does not seem to add much to the sibling similarity what more than parental income an exploration of what swedish siblings get from their parents in this paper we explore what factors other that parental income can explain why siblings tend to have such similar outcomes as previous correlation studies show our results show that parental involvement and attitudes especially propensity to plan ahead and willingness to postpone benefits to the future are particularly important for the sibling similarity

the place premium bounding the price equivalent of migration barriers large international differences in the price of labor can be sustained by differences between workers or by natural and policy barriers to worker mobility we use migrant selection theory and evide

effective tax rates and guarantees in the afdc program 1967 1982 estimates of effective tax rates on earned and unearned income and estimates of effective guarantees in the afdc program by state are provided for the period 1967 1982 the results indicate that effective real guarantees fell every year from 1967 to 1981 but stabilized in 1982 effective tax rates on unearned income rose steadily from 1967 to 1981 and took a particularly large additional jump in 1982 effective tax rates on earned income fell after 1967 but then gradually rose throughout the 1970s until 1982 when they took a much larger jump thus guarantees fell and tax rates rose over the 1970s as tight budgets forced states to restrict benefits and in the early 1980s tax rates were pushed even higher by federal legislation

returns of claims on the upside and the viability of u shaped pricing kernels abstract when the pricing kernel is u shaped then expected returns of claims with payout on the upside are negative for strikes beyond a threshold determined by the slope of the u shaped kernel in its increasing region and have negative partial derivative with respect to strike in the increasing region of the kernel using returns of i s p 500 index calls ii calls on major international equity indexes iii digital calls iv upside variance contracts and v a theoretical construct that we denote as kernel call we find broad support for the implications of u shaped pricing kernels a possible theoretical reconciliation of our empirical findings is explored through a model that accommodates heterogeneity in beliefs about return outcomes and short selling

self selection and internal migration in the united states abstract within the conceptual framework of the roy model this paper provides an empirical analysis of internal migration flows using data from the national longitudinal survey of youth the theoretical approach highlights regional differences in the returns to skills regions that pay higher returns to skills attract more skilled workers than regions that pay lower returns our empirical results suggest that interstate differences in the returns to skills are a major determinant of both the size and skill composition of internal migration flows persons whose skills are most mismatched with the reward structure offered by their current state of residence are the persons most likely to leave that state and these persons tend to relocate in states which offer higher rewards for their particular skills

intergenerational health mobility an empirical approach based on the echp despite the importance of the study of health mobility few attempts have been made to measure intergenerational mobility not only in the european union but also in other countries such as united states this article is focused on the study of intergenerational health mobility using data from the european community household panel echp in particular the relationships between self assessed health of parents and their sons are analysed the evidence obtained suggests that in spain sons reported health depends significantly on the self assessed health of their fathers

international migration self selection and the distribution of wages evidence from mexico and the united states we use the 1990 and 2000 mexican and u s population censuses to test borjas s negative selection hypothesis that the less skilled are those most likely to migrate from countries with high skill premia earnings inequality to countries with low skill premia earnings inequality we find that mexican immigrants in the united states are more educated than nonmigrants in mexico and were mexican immigrants to be paid according to current skill prices in mexico they would be concentrated in the middle of mexico s wage distribution these results are inconsistent with the negative selection hypothesis and instead suggest that there is intermediate selection of immigrants from mexico

brides for sale cross border marriages and female immigration every year a large number of women immigrate as brides from developing countries to developed countries in east asia this phenomenon virtually did not exist in the early 1990s but foreign brides currently comprise 4 to 35 percent of newlyweds in these developed asian countries this paper argues that two factors account for this rapid increase in bride importation the rapid growth of women s educational attainment and a cultural norm that leads to a low net surplus of marriage for educated women we provide empirical evidence supporting our theoretical model and its implications using datasets from japan korea singapore and taiwan