reduction potentials of energy demand and ghg emissions in china s road transport sector abstract rapid growth of road vehicles private vehicles in particular has resulted in continuing growth in china s oil demand and imports which has been widely accepted as a major factor effecting future oil availability and prices and a major contributor to china s ghg emission increase this paper is intended to analyze the future trends of energy demand and ghg emissions in china s road transport sector and to assess the effectiveness of possible reduction measures a detailed model has been developed to derive a reliable historical trend of energy demand and ghg emissions in china s road transport sector between 2000 and 2005 and to project future trends two scenarios have been designed to describe the future strategies relating to the development of china s road transport sector the business as usual scenario is used as a baseline reference scenario in which the government is assumed to do nothing to influence the long term trends of road transport energy demand the best case scenario is considered to be the most optimized case where a series of available reduction measures such as private vehicle control fuel economy regulation promoting diesel and gas vehicles fuel tax and biofuel promotion are assumed to be implemented energy demand and ghg emissions in china s road transport sector up to 2030 are estimated in these two scenarios the total reduction potentials in the best case scenario and the relative reduction potentials of each measure have been estimated

estimation on oil demand and oil saving potential of china s road transport sector national social science foundation of china 12zd059 ministry of education 10gbj013 national natural science foundation of china 71203186 fundamental research funds for the central universities 2010221051 national science foundation for disting

modeling future vehicle sales and stock in china this article presents an updated and upgraded methodology the fuel economy and environmental impacts feei model http www feeimodel org to project vehicle sales and stock in china on the basis of our previous studies the methodology presented has the following major improvements it simulates private car ownership on an income level basis takes into account car purchase prices separates sales into purchases for fleet growth and for replacements of scrapped vehicles and examines various possible vehicle scrappage patterns for china the results show that the sales of private light duty passenger vehicles in china could reach 23 42 million by 2050 with the share of new growth purchases representing 16 28 the total vehicle stock may be 530 623 million by 2050 we compare this study to other publicly available studies in terms of both projection methodology and results a sensitivity analysis shows that vehicle sales are more affected than levels of vehicle stock by the model parameters which makes projecting sales more difficult owing to the lack of reliable input data for key model parameters because it considers key factors in detail the sales and stock projection module of the feei model offers many advantages over previous models and is capable of simulating various policy scenarios

the role of agriculture and its prerequisites in economic development a vision for foreign development assistance abstract the aim of this paper is to establish a vision for foreign development assistance based upon the evolution of thought and empirical evidence found in the development literature the paper spotlights the agricultural led approach the empirical record shows that agricultural growth had a more pronounced impact on increases in developing country income than did growth in the nonagricultural sector the reason for the differential impact is that developing countries focusing on agricultural development experienced more broad based income growth and increases in the demand for domestically produced goods whereas the developing countries promoting rapid industrialization experienced narrow based income growth with a demand pattern oriented toward nonfood and capital intensive products a precondition for agriculture to play its proper role is the existence of a conducive environment in which private enterprise can flourish developing country governments need to assume responsibility for the creation and maintenance of essential institutions government investments are required in education infrastructure and other areas where the commercial market is not capable of delivering critical services finally governments must responsibly manage the macroeconomy pursuing sustainable pricing policies and fiscal and monetary policies that are consistent with real equilibrium exchange rates

the impact of government policy on preference for nevs the evidence from china to reduce gasoline consumption and emissions the chinese government has introduced a series of preferential policies to encourage the purchase of new energy vehicles nevs however enthusiasm for the private purchase of nevs appears to be very low this timely paper addresses the need for an empirical study to explore this phenomenon by identifying purchase motivations of potential nev consumers and examining the impact of government policies introduced to promote nevs in china a questionnaire survey was carried out the acceptance of nevs is measured in three different logistic models the willingness of consumers to purchase nevs the purchasing time and the acceptable price the results showed that financial benefits performance attributes environmental awareness and psychological needs are the four most important factors influencing consumers acceptance of nevs among these performance attributes rather than financial benefits are the most important indicator the moderating effect of government policies to relations between purchasing intention time and price is not strong as respected while the policy implications are clear that the public awareness of government policy functions as a moderator in the process of acceptance these findings could give some hints to the government to make better nev industry policy

fuel taxes an important instrument for climate policy abstract this article shows that fuel taxes serve a very important role for the environment and that we risk a backlash of increased emissions if they are abolished fuel taxes have restrained growth in fuel demand and associated carbon emissions although fuel demand is large and growing our analysis shows that it would have been much higher in the absence of domestic fuel taxes people often assert that fuel demand is inelastic but there is strong research evidence showing the opposite the price elasticity is in fact quite high but only in the long run in the short run it may be quite inelastic which has important implications for policy makers had europe not followed a policy of high fuel taxation but had low us taxes then fuel demand would have been twice as large hypothetical transport demand in the whole oecd area is calculated for various tax scenarios and the results show that fuel taxes are the single most powerful climate policy instrument implemented to date yet this fact is not usually given due attention in the debate

world transport energy demand modelling methodology and elasticities abstract this paper presents the international energy agency s iea approach of modelling transport energy demand fuel demand which is not a demand per se is derived whenever possible from the economic activity in the transport sector and not estimated directly ie using one equation or simultaneous equation system in general the transport models employ a two step approach in the first step transport activity the sector s relevant energy service is estimated econometrically in the second step the transport activity projections are then combined with estimates of efficiency improvements car turnover rates and diesel gasoline penetration assumptions in order to arrive at projections of fuel demand the principal advantages of this approach are that the relevant energy services are modelled and that for model simulation efficiency improvements can be dealt with explicitly the effectiveness of economic instruments is a function of the reaction of consumers and businesses to income and price changes an in depth understanding of income and price elasticities of transport demand and transport energy demand is important in order to be able to assess the effectiveness of policies considered the paper also shows the underlying long term income and price elasticities for oecd and non oecd regions

projection of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions by motor vehicles in china policy options and impacts abstract we project the well to wheels wtw and tank to wheels ttw fossil energy use petroleum use and greenhouse gas ghg emissions of the road transport sector in china up to year 2050 and evaluate the effects of various potential policy options with the fuel economy and environmental impacts feei model http www feeimodel org the policies evaluated include 1 vehicle fuel consumption improvements 2 dieselization 3 vehicle electrification and 4 fuel diversification with plausible policy scenarios under the business as usual scenario road transport in china would create 410 520 million metric tons mmt of oil equivalent of ttw oil demand three to four times the current level 28 36 billion gj of wtw energy demand and 1900 2300 mmt of co 2 equivalent of wtw ghg emissions by 2050 the policies in the same order as above are projected to reduce the ttw oil demand by 35 10 29 and 44 and reduce wtw ghg emissions by 34 5 12 and 13 respectively by 2050 this evaluation reveals that the fuel consumption improvement policy could achieve greater benefit in reducing oil use fossil energy use and ghg emissions implications of each policy option are discussed and the uncertainties associated with the policy scenarios are analyzed

car buyers and fuel economy abstract this research is designed to help researchers and policy makers ground their work in the reality of how us consumers are thinking and behaving with respect to automotive fuel economy our data are from semi structured interviews with 57 households across nine lifestyle sectors we found no household that analyzed their fuel costs in a systematic way in their automobile or gasoline purchases almost none of these households track gasoline costs over time or consider them explicitly in household budgets these households may know the cost of their last tank of gasoline and the unit price of gasoline on that day but this accurate information is rapidly forgotten and replaced by typical information one effect of this lack of knowledge and information is that when consumers buy a vehicle they do not have the basic building blocks of knowledge assumed by the model of economically rational decision making and they make large errors estimating gasoline costs and savings over time moreover we find that consumer value for fuel economy is not only about private cost savings fuel economy can be a symbolic value as well for example among drivers who view resource conservation or thrift as important values to communicate consumers also assign non monetary meaning to fuel prices for example seeing rising prices as evidence of conspiracy this research suggests that consumer responses to fuel economy technology and changes in fuel prices are more complex than economic assumptions suggest the us department of energy and the energy foundation supported this research the authors are solely responsible for the content and conclusions presented

transport energy consumption and saving in china abstract at present the global energy consumption of transport sectors is about one third of the total energy consumption of the world such a proportion in china accounts for about 20 over the past decades with the continuous development of china s economy china s energy consumption increases rapidly china became the world s biggest energy consumer in the year of 2009 meanwhile china s transport energy consumption grows greatly and the proportion of the transport terminal energy consumption is expanding considerably recently a number of theoretical methods and technical schemes focusing on china s transport energy consumption and saving were reported in this paper by reviewing the existing reports we discuss and analyze the current status of china s transport energy consumption including four different transport sectors road railway waterway and civil aviation and outline the trend of china s transport energy consumption and the four sectors in addition the technology status of china s energy saving in road railway and waterway transport as well as civil aviation and their development direction are also presented here by analyzing the major development barriers of the technology and policy of china s transport energy saving some related policy suggestions are proposed

exploring the effect of cap and trade mechanism on firm s production planning and emission reduction strategy abstract cap and trade mechanism has a significant effect on firm s production and operation decisions and carbon emissions this study develops a mathematical model to examine the effect of cap and trade mechanism on firm s production planning and emission reduction strategy based on the model the firm s critical production planning decisions such as the optimal production quantity optimal allowance selling price and the maximum profit under the cap and trade mechanism are derived firstly then based on the cost benefit analysis the conditions under which the firm makes the optimal emission reduction strategy between buying carbon allowance from the carbon trading market and conducting low carbon processing are identified the result suggests that when the low carbon processing cost is greater than the potential opportunity benefit the firm is inclined to purchase carbon allowance from the carbon trading market and vice versa finally a numerical analysis is conducted to investigate the effects of relevant factors such as carbon quotas carbon emission rate low carbon processing cost and transaction cost on firm s production and operation decisions the results indicate that under the cap and trade mechanism the transaction cost has a positive effect on allowance selling price the firm s optimal production quantity and maximum profit is positively related to carbon quotas while negatively related to carbon emission rate and low carbon processing cost this research contributes to enrich related literature and knowledge with regard to carbon emissions reduction at the firm level and highlight the critical importance of cap and trade mechanism in reducing carbon emissions

projection of future transport energy demand of thailand the objective of this study is to project transport energy consumption in thailand for the next 20 years the study develops log linear regression models and feed forward neural network models using the as independent variables national gross domestic product population and the numbers of registered vehicles the models are based on 20 year historical data between years 1989 and 2008 and are used to project the trends in future transport energy consumption for years 2010 2030 the final log linear models include only gross domestic product since all independent variables are highly correlated it was found that the projection results of this study were in the range of 54 84 59 05 million tonnes of oil equivalent 2 5 times the 2008 consumption the projected demand is only 61 65 of that predicted in a previous study which used the leap model this major discrepancy in transport energy demand projections suggests that projects related to this key indicator should take into account alternative projections because these numbers greatly affect plans policies and budget allocation for national energy management

fuel consumption in road transport a comparative study of china and oecd countries abstract energy conservation and emissions reduction have been the focus of the road transport sector due to its energy intensive and air pollution intensive nature it also embodies the imprints of human technological progress this paper compares the energy consumption of the road transport sector in china and oecd countries we used time series and panel data co integration analysis error correction model and dynamic model to study the impacts of the major influencing factors such as income income structure urbanization price and technological advancement on gasoline and diesel consumption in road transport overall china s fuel consumption is influenced mainly by investment government expenditure and demographic changes such as urbanization while the fuel consumption of oecd countries is mainly driven by household final consumption expenditure in the short run and from a dynamic perspective china s fuel consumption is less influenced by its historical consumption than current influencing factors while that of oecd countries is more affected by historical fuel consumption based on the analysis and findings of this study some policy implications are proposed

a critical review of iea s oil demand forecast for china abstract china has a rapidly growing economy with a rapidly increasing demand for oil the international energy agency iea investigated possible future oil demand scenarios for china in the 2006 world energy outlook the debate on whether oil supplies will be constrained in the near future because of limited new discoveries raises the concern that the oil industry may not be able to produce sufficient oil to meet this demand this paper examines the historical relationship between economic growth and oil consumption in a number of countries logistic curve characteristics are observed in the relationship between per capita economic activity and oil consumption this research has determined that the minimum statistical lower bound annual oil consumption for developed countries is 11 barrels per capita despite the increase reported in total energy efficiency no developed country has been able to reduce oil consumption below this lower limit indeed the iea projections to 2030 for the oecd countries show no reduction in oil demand on a per capita basis if this lower limit is applied to china it is clear that the iea projections for china are under estimating the growth in demand for oil this research has determined that this under estimation could be as high as 10 million barrels per day by 2025 if proponents of peak oil such as laherrere campbell and deffeyes are correct about the predicted peak in oil production before 2020 then the implications of this reassessment of china s oil demand will have profound implications for mankind

determinants of china s energy imports an empirical analysis sustained economic growth in china has triggered a surge of energy imports especially oil imports this paper investigates the determinants of china s energy import demand by using cointegraiton and vecm techniques the findings suggest that in the long run growth of industrial production and expansion of transport sectors affect china s oil imports while domestic energy output has a substitution effect thus as the chinese economy industrializes and the automotive sector expands china s oil imports are likely to increase though china s domestic oil production has a substitution effect on imports its growth is limited due to scarce domestic reserve and high exploration costs it is anticipated that china will be more dependent on overseas oil supply regardless of the world oil price

investigating the differences in co2 emissions in the transport sector across chinese provinces evidence from a quantile regression model abstract carbon dioxide co2 emission in china is currently the largest in the world considering that the transport sector it is one of the major contributors its co2 emissions and their main driving factors have become the focus of many scholars however majority of the existing studies usually investigates co2 emissions using the averaging method i e ordinary least squares method in fact the data distribution of socio economic variables is often non normal with the tail having hidden important information in order to overcome the shortcomings of existing research this paper uses a quantile regression approach to explore the main driving forces of the difference in co2 emissions under high medium and low level of development the results show that the effect of economic growth on co2 emissions in the 25th 50th quantile provinces is higher than those in the other quantile provinces due to the differences in fixed asset investment and motor vehicles energy intensity has a similar story owing to different r d funding and r d personnel investments the influences of urbanization in the upper 90th and 75th 90th quantile provinces are higher than those in the other quantile provinces because of the differences in human capital accumulation and patented technology freight turnover produces the same effect which is due to the differences in freight transportation and transport mode however the impacts of passenger turnover in the lower 10th and 10th 25th quantile provinces are the highest in all the quantile provinces therefore in the process of emission reduction the relevant departments should be concerned about the heterogeneous effects of these driving forces on the different quantile provinces rather than adopting the one size fits all approach

development of biodiesel industry in china upon the terms of production and consumption abstract the prices of primary energy have been ineluctably raised up due to the enormous energy consumption in china and the economy suffers a lot from the severe energy shortage therefore the necessity of using renewable energy in china is particularly important biodiesel has become one of the major renewable fuels of biomass energy since china s biodiesel industry just starts at the primary stage improving the production capacity of biodiesel for meeting the soaring on energy demands is more necessary for the sustainable development in china the materials for biodiesel production are various and sufficient in china that indicates china could have a brilliant potentiality in the production capacity of biodiesel however whether such prediction could be true is still needed to be discussion in depth and further for well answering the query the development of biodiesel industry in china has been systematically reviewed upon the terms of production and consumption and three essential aspects how to sufficiently take advantage of such plentiful feedstock for obtaining a satisfied production capacity how to reasonably use such biodiesel in each region and how to scientifically encourage the development of chinese biodiesel industry have been discussed from the review and discussions it can be concluded that the rising china s biodiesel industry is still behind the actual demand asked by 12th five years plan and continuous introduction of capitals is the effective method to a further development meanwhile the development of china s biodiesel industry is highly depended on the raw materials whose sources and production capability are remarkably different in different regions and hence make standards on the quality of biodiesel is essential and crucial to the further development furthermore adjusting tax policies and forcing the application of biodiesel as addition to fossil diesel can effective establish and enlarge the market of biodiesel in china

the impact of the economic crisis and policy actions on ghg emissions from road transport in spain abstract road traffic is the greatest contributor to the carbon footprint of the transport sector and reducing it has become one of the main targets of sustainable transport policies an analysis of the main factors influencing greenhouse gas ghg emissions is essential for designing new energy and environmentally efficient strategies for the road transport this paper addresses this need by i identifying factors which influence the carbon footprint including traffic activity fuel economy and socioeconomic development and ii proposing a methodological framework which uses modified laspeyres index decomposition to analyze the effect of important drivers on the changes in emissions of road transport in spain during the period from 1990 to 2010 the results demonstrate that the country s economic growth has been closely linked to the rise in ghg emissions the innovative contribution of this paper is the special analysis of the changes in mobility patterns and ghg emissions during the economic crisis when for the first time spanish road traffic emissions decreased the reduction of road transport and improved energy efficiency has been powerful contributors to this decrease demonstrating the effectiveness of energy saving measures on the basis of this analysis several tailored policy recommendations have been suggested for future implementation

green logistics and national scale economic indicators evidence from a panel of selected european countries abstract the objective of the study is to examine the impact of logistics performance indices on national scale economic indicators i e energy environment and economic health in a panel of 27 european countries over a period of 2007 2014 the results show that logistics performance index in terms of timeliness significantly increases gdp per unit of energy use health expenditures and per capita income where as logistics index in terms of infrastructure increases renewable energy source and decreases carbon emissions logistics index for customs processes significantly associated with the less energy prices while logistics index for tracking and trace consignments substantially increases fossil fuel energy consumption logistics competence index have a differential impact on environment on one hand it substantially reduce the burden of fossil fuel energy consumption while on the other hand it s significantly increases carbon emissions logistics international shipments increase fossil fuel energy in a region industry value added and fdi inflows both increases energy prices fossil fuel energy health expenditures and per capita income whereas trade openness decreases energy prices and increases carbon emissions energy efficiency and per capita income the results conclude that logistics indices significantly linked with the national scale economic indicators that provoke for the green supply chain management in the region

the rebound effect some empirical evidence from india abstract the present paper looks at the effect of technical efficiency gains on energy use in three sectors in india at varying levels of aggregation high positive rebound implies that efficient technology unless supplemented by appropriate pricing policy will not be successful in containing demand however the main purpose of the paper is to focus on the unique mechanism of rebound that may occur in developing countries with unmet demand

analyzing co2 emissions from passenger cars in europe a dynamic panel data approach abstract road transport accounts for 92 per cent of co2 emissions from all transport services and car transport makes the largest contribution to the total we examine the dynamic relationship between car co2 emissions in western european union countries eu 13 with the dieselization of the passenger vehicle fleet technological progress fuel efficiency mobility indicator economic activity and motorization rate we take advantage of a panel data set of 13 eu countries between 1990 and 2015 and estimate a dynamic panel data dpd model using alternative econometric methods this approach allows us to estimate the effect on car co2 emissions of induced indirect channels involving the reaction of economic agents to changes in aforementioned explanatory variables we provide evidence that co2 emissions have been benefited from global technological progress and changes in average fuel efficiency while increases of economic activity motorization rate and the dieselization process hold positive and significant relationship with car co2 emissions these results are consistent with alternative model specifications and econometric methods

an examination of the determinants of biased behaviour in a market for state contingent claims we develop a model to explain the differential incidence of the favourite longshot bias in parallel sectors of the pari mutuel horserace betting market hypotheses are derived from the model and these are tested using uk data to explore the origins of the bias significant variations in the bias are discovered between market sectors on and off racetrack these results shed light on competing demand side explanations for the favourite longshot bias and suggest that it is affected by a combination of behavioural and operational features of the markets and the types of bettors informed and leisure which they attract

recreational versus professional bettors performance differences and efficiency implications using a novel dataset which allows comparisons across heterogeneous sub groups of pari mutuel bettors we demonstrate significant behaviour and performance distinctions between recreational and professional investors professionals ability to earn abnormal returns on short odds horses in high volume markets challenges the existing empirical consensus which offers very limited evidence of betting market inefficiency the results offer important lessons for betting operators and regulators and highlight the potential for similar avenues of investigation in other speculative markets