how much damage will climate change do recent estimates two reasons to be concerned about climate change are its unjust distributional impact and its negative aggregate effect on economic growth and welfare although our knowledge of the impact of climate change is incomplete and uncertain economic valuation is difficult and controversial and the effect of other developments on the impacts of climate change is largely speculative the authors find that poorer countries and people are more vulnerable than are richer countries and people a modest global warming is likely to have a net negative effect on poor countries in hot climates but may have a net positive effect on rich countries in temperate climates if one counts dollars the world aggregate may be positive if one counts people the world aggregate is probably negative negative impacts would become more negative and positive impacts would turn negative for more substantial warming the marginal costs of carbon dioxide emissions are uncertain and sensitive to assumptions that partially reflect ethical positions but are unlikely to be larger than 50 per tonne carbon

the limits of market oriented regulatory techniques the case of automotive fuel economy the search for more efficient market oriented regulatory techniques has produced significant recent advances in several areas among these would appear to be the corporate average fuel economy cafe approach to reducing gasoline consumption by the domestic automobile fleet the 1975 energy policy and conservation act required manufacturers to sell fleets with a sales weighted average of 18 miles per gallon in the 1978 model year 19 mpg in 1979 20 mpg in 1980 and 27 5 mpg in 1985 1 the standards for the four intervening years were subsequently set by the national highway traffic safety administration at 22 24 26 and 27 miles per gallon the advantages of the averaging approach over uniform vehicle standards or a gas guzzler tax are two fold first cafe permits each firm to increase its overall fuel efficiency in the cheapest manner since the costs of mileage improvements for different vehicles may be rather different 2 and second it permits the continuation of a diverse product mix to the consumer since a uniform standard would probably result in the demise of certain models these arguments for averaging are now so widely accepted that the principle is being proposed inter alia for automotive emissions standards as well that is instead of maximum allowable emissions for each and every model manufacturers could produce models with various levels of pollutants

new vehicle feebates new vehicle feebate programs encourage improved fleet wide vehicle fuel efficiency yet analyses of these policies have been limited to ad hoc proposals in this paper we exploit an extensive multi year dataset which includes more than 16 million observations to evaluate the welfare implications of a long standing vehicle feebate program in the canadian province of ontario we 1 show that second best optimal feebates can be written as a function of new vehicle pigouvian taxes 2 find that ontario s feebate program was welfare enhancing relative to a no feebate scenario but that a second best optimal benchmark would have yielded additional welfare while reducing fleet wide emissions and 3 find that ontarian consumers responded asymmetrically to fees versus rebates

vehicle scrappage and gasoline policy abstract we estimate the sensitivity of scrap decisions to changes in used car values and show how this scrap elasticity produces emissions leakage under fuel efficiency standards a process known as the gruenspecht effect we first estimate the effect of gasoline prices on used vehicle values and scrappage of vehicles with different fuel economies we then estimate the scrap elasticity itself which we find to be 0 7 when applied in a model of fuel economy standards 13 16 percent of the expected fuel savings leak away through the used vehicle market this effect rivals or exceeds the importance of the often cited mileage rebound effect jel h23 l62 l78 q35 q38 q48 q58

e ztax tax salience and tax rates this paper examines whether the salience of a tax system affects equilibrium tax rates i analyze how tolls change after toll facilities adopt electronic toll collection etc drivers are substantially less aware of tolls paid electronically i estimate that in steady state tolls are 20 to 40 percent higher than they would have been without etc consistent with a salience based explanation for this toll increase i find that under etc driving becomes less elastic with respect to the toll and toll setting becomes less sensitive to the electoral calendar alternative explanations appear unlikely to be able to explain the findings

1 000 cash back the pass through of auto manufacturer promotions automobile manufacturers frequently use promotions involving cash incentives while payments are nominally directed to either customers or dealers the ultimate beneficiary of the promotion depends on the outcome of price negotiation we use program evaluation methods to compare the incidence of these two types of promotions customers obtain 70 to 90 percent of a customer rebate but only 30 to 40 percent of a dealer discount promotion a 500 difference for a typical promotion our leading hypothesis is that pass through rates differ because of information asymmetries customer rebates are well publicized to customers while dealer discount promotions are not

the distributional incidence of the gasoline tax in chile abstract this paper analyzes the distributional incidence of the excise tax on gasoline in chile using household budget surveys the incidence is calculated with respect to both income and expenditure distributions in order to consider the potential differences between transitory and permanent income the suits index is estimated as a measure of the degree of progressivity of the tax and confidence intervals are calculated using a bootstrap methodology to statistically compare changes in the incidence given changes in the tax the results show that the tax contrary to the evidence for several developed countries is slightly or moderately progressive with a lower degree of progressivity observed in the calculations based on income than those based on expenditure the simulation of the 25 reduction in the tax rate implemented in 2008 shows that in terms of incidence its effect is to reduce the progressivity of the gasoline tax which is the opposite of what was sought by the government with this policy

environmental efficiency of investments in renewable energy comparative analysis at macroeconomic level abstract this paper aims to bring into attention the concept of renewable energy investments efficiency and to study one of the three concepts related to it namely environmental efficiency of investments in renewable energy the analysis is undertaken at macroeconomic level for several countries in europe some of them are member states of european union and were observed over the period between 1990 and 2008 the method assumes the study of the econometric models based on kaya identity an equation widely used in studies regarding emissions trends and future emissions scenarios working with time series and cross sectional data a panel data approach is needed indicators like energy intensity co 2 intensity and gross domestic product per capita and per unit of investment are used as they establish a connection between effects and efforts a prerequisite for studying the efficiency a novelty of this research lies in the calculation of environmental efficiency index after an original method proposed by authors the findings of this analysis reveal that there are both countries with high and low environmental efficiency of investments in renewable energy

collateral avoids ponzi schemes in incomplete markets without introducing either debt constraints or transversality conditions to avoid the possibility of ponzi schemes we show the existence of equilibrium in an infinite horizon incomplete markets economy with a collateral structure

clearing the air the costs and consequences of higher cafe standards and increased gasoline taxes abstract concerns about energy security and climate change have sparked legislators interest in reducing gasoline consumption by increasing corporate average fuel economy cafe standards using an empirically rich simulation model and cost estimates for anticipated fuel economy technologies we estimate annual costs of reducing long run gasoline consumption by 10 via a 3 8 miles per gallon increase in the standards and the potential cost savings from allowing manufacturers to buy and sell fuel economy credits maximum gasoline savings would be realized only after all existing vehicles were replaced or 14 years in our model a gasoline tax would produce greater immediate savings by encouraging people to drive less and eventually to choose more fuel efficient vehicles we demonstrate the advantage of a tax by comparing the cost of the higher cafe standards over the first 14 years against the cost of a gasoline tax that would save the same amount of gasoline over that time

is there an energy efficiency gap many analysts have argued that energy efficiency investments offer an enormous win win opportunity to both reduce negative externalities and save money this overview paper presents a simple model of investment in energy using capital stock with two types of market failures first uninternalized externalities from energy consumption and second forces such as imperfect information that cause consumers and firms not to exploit privately profitable energy efficiency investments the model clarifies that only if the second type of market failure cannot be addressed directly through mechanisms such as information provision energy efficiency subsidies and standards may be merited this chapter therefore reviews the empirical work on the magnitude of profitable unexploited energy efficiency investments a literature which frequently does not meet modern standards for credibly estimating the net present value of energy cost savings and often leaves other benefits and costs unmeasured these problems notwithstanding recent empirical work in a variety of contexts implies that on average the magnitude of profitable unexploited investment opportunities is much smaller than engineering accounting studies suggest finally there is tremendous opportunity and need for policy relevant research that utilizes randomized controlled trials and quasi experimental techniques to estimate the returns to energy efficiency investments and the welfare effects of energy efficiency programs

the impacts of petroleum price fluctuations on income distribution across ethnic groups in malaysia crude oil price hikes have compelled governments of developing countries to let domestic prices of energy increase fiscal priorities made it impossible to fully compensate the hikes by raising energy subsidies this paper examines the potential impacts of a limited deregulation of the petroleum price on the income distribution in malaysia paying specific attention to differences in impacts on major ethnic groups we introduce an extended social accounting matrix sam model which not only incorporates substitution possibilities among production inputs and consumption goods but also allows for the exogenous determination of the price of intermediate inputs the results of simulations indicate that distributional impacts of rising petroleum prices tend to be regressive affecting poor people more severely than richer people all ethnic groups experience income loss with the real incomes of malay households which are relatively poor on average more than the chinese and indian households which are the generally richer

marriage market matching and conspicuous consumption in china i introduction a preference for sons coupled with the one child policy has combined to generate a relative shortage of females in china estimates from china s population census suggest that for cohorts bom over the period 1970 2000 males have grown in share from 51 to 57 of the total population qian 2008 1251 estimates of the share of missing women in the country now exceed 40 million women bulte et al 2011 existing research has shown that these skewed sex ratios are producing widespread social and economic upheaval including higher saving rates ballooning housing prices wei and zhang 2011 wei et al 2012 higher rates of bachelorhood guilmoto 2012 and reduced overall welfare bhaskar 2011 recent research also suggests that spending on status goods appears to be growing in magnitude even in poorer parts of rural china brown et al 2011 chen et al 2012 in this article we investigate the extent to which skewed sex ratios influence expenditure decisions in a broad sample of roughly 24 000 automobile transactions across china over the period 2009 2011 using a differences indifferences in differences approach we show that unmarried male consumers who reside in an area with an unfavorable sex ratio purchase more expensive vehicles than their married peers we also identify specific luxury vehicle models and confirm that the cars purchased by these consumers are more likely to be classified as higher end models the pressure generated by skewed sex ratios on individuals to consume conspicuously may vary along a number of dimensions we are able to explore two sources of heterogeneity in our sample first we show that the estimated relationship is both larger in magnitude and more precisely estimated among the quartile of individuals living in areas with the most highly skewed sex ratios second we find that the poorest quartile of unmarried males in our sample exhibit the largest changes in expenditure 1 this result is consistent with a situation in which individuals of varying income and potentially of varying reference groups use different sets of commodities to signal wealth as documented by chai and kaus 2012 for south african consumers finally we investigate whether this behavior generates negative externalities in the form of lower average fuel economy and higher average vehicle weight a factor that can significantly increase mortality in traffic accidents anderson and auffhammer 2014 our results suggest that consumption signaling skews the pool of purchased automobiles to lower gas mileage vehicles but has little impact on overall vehicle weight the use of consumption expenditure to signal social status has attracted a great deal of attention in the economics literature recent work has focused on empirically identifying consumption visibility and exploring the determinants and motivations for signaling charles et al 2009 heffetz 2011 these efforts routinely classify automobiles as among the most conspicuous of purchases and a number of papers focus specifically on vehicle purchases for instance grinblatt et al 2008 show that finnish consumers are directly influenced by the automobile purchases of their nearest neighbors particularly for recent purchases positional spending has also been studied in developing countries with research highlighting the fact that the allocation of expenditure for this purpose has the potential to act as a poverty trap in this setting banerjee and duflo 2007 brown et al 2011 case et al 2013 kaus 2013 moav and neeman 2010 2012 these effects appear to be amplified by marriage market conditions for instance chen et al 2012 show that relative to families with daughters poor chinese households with sons undertake higher levels of social gift giving associated with maintaining guanxi networks of influence in chinese society our analysis sample confers several unique advantages in this context

incorporating affirmative action into the welfare state abstract in this paper we discuss a novel aspect of affirmative action policy we examine its redistributive role asking whether in an egalitarian society supplementing the tax transfer system with an affirmative action policy would enhance social welfare we demonstrate that affirmative action could be a desirable policy tool even if racial discrimination does not exist in the labor market

distributional and efficiency impacts of increased us gasoline taxes we examine the impacts of increased us gasoline taxes in a model that links the markets for new used and scrapped vehicles and recognizes the consider able heterogeneity among households and cars household choice parameters derive from an estimation procedure that integrates individual choices for car ownership and miles traveled we find that each cent per gallon increase in the price of gasoline reduces the equilibrium gasoline consumption by about 0 2

automobile prices and quality did the gasoline price increases change consumer tastes in the u s a hedonic model of automobile prices that takes gasoline costs into account is developed and used to examine whether gasoline price increases especially those related to the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks changed consumer evaluations of the relative qualities of used cars in the u s during 1970 1981 we test the null hypothesis that the characteristics coefficients remained constant over time it is rejected if gasoline costs are excluded from the model but not if they are included alternative approaches are developed to show that the gasoline price increases alone can explain much of the observed changes in the coefficients

is pay as you drive insurance a better way to reduce gasoline than gasoline taxes gasoline taxes are widely perceived as the most efficient instrument for reducing gasoline consumption because they exploit all behavioral responses for reducing fuel use including reduced driving and improved fuel economy at present however higher fuel taxes are viewed as a political nonstarter pay as you drive payd auto insurance which involves replacing existing lump sum premiums with premiums that vary in proportion to miles driven should be more practical since they do not raise driving costs for the average motorist we show that when impacts on a broad range of motor vehicle externalities are considered payd also induces significantly higher welfare gains than comparable gasoline tax increases for fuel reductions below 9 the reason is that under payd all of the reduction in fuel use rather than just a fraction comes from reduced driving this produces a substantial additional efficiency gain because mileage related external costs especially congestion and accidents are relatively large in magnitude this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

pounds that kill the external costs of vehicle weight heavier vehicles are safer for their own occupants but more hazardous for other vehicles simple theory thus suggests that an unregulated vehicle fleet is inefficiently heavy using three separate identification strategies we show that controlling for own vehicle weight being hit by a vehicle that is 1000 pounds heavier generates a 40 50 increase in fatality risk these results imply a total accident related externality that exceeds the estimated social cost of us carbon emissions and is equivalent to a gas tax of 0 97 per gallon 136 billion annually we consider two policies for internalizing this external cost a weight varying mileage tax and a gas tax and find that they are similar for most vehicles the findings suggest that european gas taxes may be much closer to optimal levels than the us gas tax language en

energy efficiency policy in a non cooperative world abstract in this paper we explore energy efficiency policies in the presence of a global environmental problem and international cost interdependency associated with r d activities we develop a simple model with two regions where the cost of an appliance in one region depends upon the level of energy efficiency in that region and the level of r d activities by the appliance industry in our model the cooperative outcome can be decentralized by imposing a tax on energy however we show that when regions do not cooperate they have an incentive to adopt additional instruments to increase energy efficiency the reason is that the lack of cooperation leads to under taxation of the environmental externality which in turn creates an incentive to try to reduce emissions produced abroad we illustrate this phenomenon with the californian vehicle greenhouse gas standards

the effects of transport regulation on the oil market does market power matter instruments used to regulate the consumption of oil in the transport sector include fuel taxes biofuel requirements and fuel efficiency standards however the effects that these have on oil consumption and price vary if market power is present in the oil market the directions of change in consumption and price might contrast with those in a competitive market as a result the market structure affects not only the effectiveness of the policy instruments used to reduce oil consumption but also the terms of trade and carbon leakage in particular reduced oil consumption as a result of increased fuel efficiency standards will unambiguously increase the price of oil under a monopoly

gasoline prices fuel economy and the energy paradox abstract policymakers often assert that consumers undervalue future gasoline costs when they buy automobiles we test this by measuring whether relative prices of vehicles with different fuel economy ratings fully adjust to variation in gasoline prices vehicle prices move as if consumers are indifferent between 1 00 in discounted future gas cost and 0 76 in vehicle purchase price we show how corrections for endogenous market shares and utilization measurement error and different gasoline price forecasts affect the results we also provide unique evidence of sticky information vehicle markets respond to changes in gasoline prices with up to a six month delay

the accident externality of driving evidence from observance of the jewish sabbath in israel we document and measure an externality of driving whereby a driver s decision to take to the road affects fellow drivers risk of accident because religious jews refrain from driving during the sabbath traffic on israeli roads decreases sharply when the sabbath begins each friday at a precisely defined time before sundown and increases after the sabbath ends on saturday evening at a precisely defined time after sunset using plausibly exogenous variation in traffic volume associated with the sabbath we estimate the effect of traffic volume on the risk of fatal or injurious accident we find that a positive accident externality emerges only at the sabbath exit when traffic volumes are greater remarkably similar results arise when the analysis is confined to non jewish drivers whose travel choices are not bound by the precise timing of the sabbath supporting the interpretation that our findings reflect an externality finally the effect emerges mainly on a class of road sections that is considered highly perilous suggesting that the interaction of traffic volume and road perilousness is important for understanding this issue and shaping implicated policy

product line rivalry and market segmentation with an application to automobile optional engine pricing this paper addresses the questions whether and when the pricing practices on base products may differ from those of premium products sold with options or add ons various alternative models are considered a monopoly model a model of brand rivalry with full consumer information and a model of rivalry in which consumers are only well informed about base product prices only the brand rivalry model with limited consumer information predicts that premium products have larger percentage markups than base products provided that brand rivalry is sufficiently intense empirical evidence on base and premium product pricing in the automobile market is consistent with the limited information model and inconsistent with the other two models

gasoline prices and the used automobile market a rational expectations asset price approach this paper examines the impact of changes in gasoline price expectations on the market values of used automobiles an asset model of automobile valuation is used to relate year to year changes in market values to changes in the present discounted value of gasoline expenses econometric evidence from data covering the years 1972 through 1981 substantially confirms the hypothesis of the model that a gasoline price shock causes relative price changes across automobile types in proportion to the differences in their rates of fuel consumption

does britain or the united states have the right gasoline tax this paper develops an analytical framework to assess the second best optimal level of gasoline taxation taking into account unpriced pollution congestion and accident externalities as well as interactions with the broader fiscal system we provide calculations of the optimal taxes for the us and the uk under a variety of parameter scenarios under our central parameter values the second best optimal gasoline tax is 1 01 gal for the us and 1 34 gal for the uk current tax rates are much lower than this in the us and higher in the uk the calculations are moderately sensitive to alternative parameter assumptions the congestion externality is the largest component in both nations revenue raising needs also play a significant role as do accident externalities and local air pollution potential welfare gains from reducing the current uk tax rate are estimated at nearly one fourth the production cost of all gasoline used in the uk even larger gains could be achieved by switching to a tax on vehicle miles with equal revenue yield for the us the welfare gains from optimizing the gasoline tax are smaller but those from switching to an optimal tax on vehicle miles are very large

output fluctuations at the plant level this paper examines the short run dynamics of manufacturing costs by detailing how plants in the u s automobile industry change output weekly data show a variety of margins on which firms adjust production these margins which are distinct from the usual factor demand choices differ in their lumpiness their adjustment costs and their variable costs the existence of these margins explains several empirical puzzles of output fluctuations using a theory of the short run dynamic cost function we are able to infer some of the characteristics of the underlying cost function from the dynamic behavior of the different margins

environmental policy and vehicle safety the impact of gasoline taxes i introduction public policy to address the environmental externalities associated with automobile use will likely lead to substantial changes in the composition of the u s passenger vehicle fleet while many economists suggest pigovian taxation as the best approach to this problem anderson et al 2011 the main policy instrument in the united states has been the corporate average fuel economy cafe standards which have recently been dramatically increased environmental protection agency and department of transportation 2012 while most of the improvement in fuel economy will necessarily come from technological improvements an inexpensive way to improve fuel economy is simply to lower vehicle weights indeed the text of the new regulations states that we expect manufacturers to reduce vehicle mass as a compliance strategy p 62741 the reduction in vehicle weight that occurred in response to the oil price shocks of the 1970s and the initial cafe standards was estimated by crandall and graham 1989 to substantially increase automobile accident fatalities the passenger vehicle fleet has changed greatly since 1989 with one of the most notable features being the increase in the prevalence of light trucks a category that includes minivans pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles suvs several authors have suggested that the external impacts on the safety of occupants of other vehicles may exceed the protective benefit afforded to light truck owners so that the now heavier vehicle fleet might actually be detrimental to overall safety see especially gayer 2004 white 2004 and anderson 2008 the negative safety and environmental externalities associated with vehicle weight could potentially be addressed simultaneously via pigovian taxation further strengthening the argument for taxation over fuel economy standards an important problem that must be addressed in interpreting automobile accident data is to disentangle vehicle fatality rates into a vehicle safety component treatment effect and a driver safety component selection effect this paper presents a novel model that allows simultaneous estimation of the relationship of vehicle weight with the safety of the own vehicle occupants internal impacts and that of other vehicle occupants external impacts conditional upon an accident occurring these estimates can then be used to estimate the relative riskiness of drivers of different types of vehicles the model is estimated using maximum likelihood techniques and data from the fatality analysis reporting system fars which includes data on every fatal accident that occurs in the united states but excludes all non fatal accidents the main empirical finding of the paper is that the protective effects of weight on own occupants are diminishing while the destructive external effects on other vehicle occupants are increasing for marginal vehicle weight changes above approximately 3 800 pounds the external costs outweigh the internal benefits in two vehicle crashes while the protective effect of vehicle weight in single vehicle crashes partly compensates for this a substantial fraction of the vehicle fleet is above the weight where net safety costs exceed benefits the safety externalities associated with these heaviest vehicles substantially exceed the environmental externalities associated with carbon emissions the nature of the model lends itself to simulating the potential impact of relatively arbitrary changes to the vehicle fleet composition simulations of hypothetical changes in the vehicle weight distribution establish that reducing vehicle weight can either increase or decrease automobile accident fatalities depending upon whether the reductions are concentrated at the lower or higher end of the current weight distribution recent empirical changes to the weight distribution of cars sold in the united states are incorporated into the simulation model which predicts little impact on accident fatalities

relaxing cafe foreign direct investment nafta and domestic product standards this paper studies the effects of domestic product standards on the offshoring behaviour of automotive firms in particular we examine an important non tariff barrier to trade within us fuel economy policy the corporate average fuel economy cafe two fleet rule by leveraging the removal of the two fleet rule upon implementation of nafta and exploiting a policy discontinuity based on vehicle characteristics we present evidence that the costs of offshoring were reduced to a larger degree for varieties that were subject to us fuel economy rules specifically we estimate that prices fell between 5 to 10 for varieties subject to the cafe two fleet rule relative to varieties that were exempt from the rule these effects are persistent not present for manufacturers that did not offshore prior to nafta and are robust to variety specific trends these effects also reconcile the post nafta differences in implied compliance costs between cars and trucks for our treatment manufacturer chrysler overall the results highlight the potential costs of regional enforcement of otherwise location neutral product standards which may act as a barrier to natural patterns of efficient specialization resume assouplissement de cafe investissement direct a l etranger alena et standards domestiques des produits ce texte etudie les effets de standards domestiques des produits sur le comportement de sous traitance a l etranger des producteurs automobiles en particulier on examine une importante barriere non tarifaire qui existe le cadre de la politique d economie du carburant des etats unis cafe corporate average fuel economy et sa regle des deux flottes en utilisant le retrait de la regle des deux flottes lors de la mise en oeuvre de l alena et une discontinuite de la politique portant sur les caracteristiques des vehicules on montre que les couts de la delocalisation ont ete reduits d un plus fort degre pour les varietes de vehicules qui etaient sujets aux regles de cafe specifiquement on estime que les prix ont chute de 5 a 10 pour les varietes sujettes aux regles de cafe par rapport aux varietes exemptees de la regle ces effets sont persistants ne s appliquent pas pour les manufacturiers qui ne s etaient pas delocalises avant l alena et robustes face aux tendances dans la specificite des varietes ces effets reconcilient aussi les differences apres alena dans les couts a se conformer des voitures et des camions dans le cas particulier chrysler etudie d un point de vue plus general les resultats soulignent les couts potentiels de l application regionale de regles de standards censement neutres regionalement qui peuvent etre une barriere a un pattern naturel assurant une specialisation plus efficiente

the demand for cars and the price of gasoline the user cost approach the theory of the user cost of capital is used to estimate the demand for new and used cars in israel the results demonstrate that the price of operating costs must be included in the demand function they also show that the importance of gasoline price increases with engine size income elasticities are higher for new than for old cars and increase with engine size the inevitability of further increases in gasoline prices implies a further reduction in the average size of cars and a possible decline in the number of cars in the economy unless the trend is moderated by an acceleration in economic growth the future of the us auto industry will depend to a large extent on its ability to compete in the small and medium car markets 13 references 3 tables

new vehicle characteristics and the cost of the corporate average fuel economy standard by 2016 the corporate average fuel economy cafe standard will increase by 40 this article focuses on the medium run effects of fuel economy regulation we estimate consumers willingness to pay for vehicle characteristics we employ a novel empirical strategy that accounts for the characteristics endogeneity by using variation of engine models used in vehicle models the results imply that consumers value an increase in power more than an increase in fuel economy simulations of the effects of an increase in the cafe standard suggest that regulatory costs are significantly smaller in the medium run than in the short run

short run pricing strategies to increase corporate average fuel economy short run pricing strategies to increase corporate average fuel economy i introduction in 1974 the average fuel efficiency of new automobiles sold in the united states reached a low of 14 2 miles per gallon mpg close on the heels of the arab opec oil embargo of 1973 74 and the ensuing petroleum price shocks congress passed the 1975 energy policy and conservation act the act required each manufacturer to meet sales weighted corporate average fuel economy cafe standards beginning with 18 mpg in 1978 and gradually increasing each year to 27 5 mpg in 1985 figure 1 the expressed purpose of the cafe standards was to stimulate the development of technology to improve fuel efficiency the possibility of raising the relative prices of the least energy efficient models as a strategy to meet the standards was considered but only as a last resort 1 although there continues to be intense debate as to whether fuel price increases or the cafe regulations drove the fuel economy improvements of the 1970s and 80s several studies agree that improvements in automotive engineering and design rather than pricing strategies played an overwhelmingly dominant role 2 no empirical evidence supports the effectiveness of using pricing strategies to increase the overall level of automotive fuel economy every year since 1985 automobile manufacturers have successfully petitioned the national highway traffic safety administration which determines the level of the cafe standard to reduce the target from 27 5 to 26 mpg in 1986 88 and 26 5 mpg in 1989 in each case at least one manufacturer argued that it would be unable to meet the original target with its planned product offerings and would have to resort to other strategies that would result in unacceptable economic costs this paper explores a method of estimating the costs of achieving fuel economy goals when pricing strategies are used to alter the distribution of sales the method employs the closed form equation for consumers surplus derived from the multinational logit model of discrete choice discussed by mcfadden 1973 and assumes that manufacturers must bear the full cost of meeting the fuel economy target the estimated cost represents an upper bound on the losses firms would incur by setting prices to minimize loss of profit using econometric estimates of the sensitivity of vehicle choice to vehicle price together with market shares and fuel efficiencies for 1986 i estimate the costs of short term improvements in average fuel economy using pricing strategies for general motors ford and chrysler minor adjustments of up to 1 mpg cost 1 2 percent of the price of a 10 000 car for improvements of 2 mpg or more however pricing strategies become a costly way to improve fuel economy the technique also estimates the market shares for each car line that correspond to the pricing solution it thereby identifies which car lines would be most affected the technique produces precise price changes and market shares for each car line readers should not place too much weight on the apparent precision but should consider the estimates as an approximation the usefulness of which lies in measuring the difficulty of meeting fuel economy targets via pricing strategies alone one can compare the size of these estimates to the fines for failing to meet the standards 50 per mpg per car or to typical manufacturer rebates to stimulate sales often 100 to 2 000 per car ii a formulation of the pricing problem faced with the cafe requirements a firm can respond with engineering and design improvements or by raising the prices of less efficient models and lowering the prices of those that exceed the standard technological improvements generally require a lead time of three to five years very large fluctuations in fuel prices have occurred in far shorter perids figure 1 creating the risk that a manufacturer s product offering could be out of step with the market

gasoline price uncertainty and the design of fuel economy standards abstract what are the implications of gasoline price volatility for the design of fuel economy policies i show that this problem has a strong parallel to weitzman s 1974 classic model of using price or quantity controls to regulate an externality changes in fuel prices act as shocks to the marginal cost of complying with the standard assuming constant marginal damages from fuel consumption an application of weitzman 1974 implies that a fixed fuel economy standard reduces expected welfare relative to a price policy such as a feebate or equivalently a fuel economy standard that is indexed to the price of gasoline when the regulator is constrained to use a fixed standard i show that the usual approach to setting the standard equate expected marginal compliance cost to marginal damage is likely to be sub optimal because the standard may not bind if the realized gasoline price is sufficiently high instead the optimal fixed standard will be relatively relaxed and may be non binding even at the expected gasoline price finally i show that although an attribute based standard allows vehicle choices to flexibly respond to gasoline price shocks the resulting distortions imply that the optimal fuel economy standard is not attribute based

fuel economy car class mix and safety fuel economy standards change the composition of the vehicle fleet potentially influencing accident fatality risks i estimate the direction and magnitude of this impact introducing a correction for selection on driver behavior a policy application using my new estimates shows that the present distinction between light trucks and cars in fuel economy rules has very negative consequences for overall safety each mpg increment to the standard results in an additional 150 fatalities per year in expectation my correction for selection is pivotal in this finding i then demonstrate a simple alternative regulation that can produce near zero changes in accident fatalities

input output simulations of energy environment economy interactions in the uk this paper shows how a number of the complex interrelationships between energy environment and economic welfare can be investigated with the aid of a 10 sector input output i o model of the uk with pollution emission coefficients and a european sulphur deposition vector the paper reviews relevant past applications of i o analysis in the energy environment area and describes the endam program and its operation it is used to simulate the effects of a variety of policies and possibilities not only through changes in exogenous variables final demand and income taxes and transfers but also through changes in the structural matrices and their coefficients in each case the full effects direct indirect and income induced can be traced and the changes in comparative static equilibrium values discovered in this way policy issues connected with energy use and environmental impacts employment and economic welfare have been investigated

quantifying the premium externality of the uninsured in some insurance markets the uninsured can generate a negative externality on the insured leading insurance companies to pass on costs as higher premia using a novel panel data set and a staggered policy change that exogenously varied the rate of uninsured drivers at the county level in california we quantitatively investigate the effect of uninsured motorists on automobile insurance premia consistent with predictions of theory we find uninsured drivers lead to higher insurance premia specifically a 1 percentage point increase in the rate of uninsured drivers raises insurance premia by between 1 2 we also discuss corrective pigouvian taxes

the effects of the corporate average fuel efficiency standards in the us this paper examines the effects of the corporate average fuel economy standards cafe on automobile sales prices and fuel consumption first a discrete choice model of automobile demand and a continuous model of vehicle utilization are estimated using micro data from the consumer expenditure survey for 1984 1990 next the demand side model is combined with a model of oligopoly and product differentiation on the supply side with these elements in place the effects of the cafe regulation are assessed through simulations and compared to the effects of alternative policy instruments such as an increase in gasoline tax

one discriminatory rent or double jeopardy multicomponent negotiation for new car purchases about half of new car transactions actually consist of two transactions one in which the customer buys a new car from a dealer and the other in which the customer sells his or her existing car to the dealer as a trade in at most dealerships both the price of the new car and the price of the trade in are negotiated in such negotiations as a general rule car dealers are willing to trade off profits made on the new car versus profits made on the trade in to an economist this suggests that the dealer may see the new car customer as the source of a certain amount of extractable profit one discriminatory rent that can be subdivided into two arbitrary buckets the new car margin and the trade in margin economic models of bargaining tend to use a similar paradigm modeling the amount of total economic surplus created by the transaction and supposing that each party will get a share of that surplus that is determined by the party s bargaining power it is usually recognized that there are multiple price mechanisms that could convey the same division of surplus to the two parties if this is indeed a good description of how new car negotiations unfold then an observer comparing a similar set of transactions should expect new car and trade in profit margins to be negatively correlated the better the deal the customer gets on a new car the less good the deal one should expect the customer to get on the trade in an alternative view of this multicomponent negotiation is that customers or dealers or competition and market structure

the geography of trade and technology shocks in the united states abstract this paper explores the geographic overlap of trade and technology shocks across local labor markets in the united states regional exposure to technological change as measured by specialization in routine task intensive production and clerical occupations is largely uncorrelated with regional exposure to trade competition from china while the impacts of technology are dispersed throughout the united states the impacts of trade tend to be more geographically concentrated owing in part to the spatial agglomeration of labor intensive manufacturing our findings highlight the feasibility of separately identifying the impacts of recent changes in trade and technology on us regional economies

this is what happened to the oil price macroeconomy relationship abstract many of the quarterly oil price increases observed since 1985 are corrections to even bigger oil price decreases the previous quarter when one looks at the net increase in oil prices over the year recent data are consistent with the historical correlation between oil shocks and recessions

statistical arbitrage with default and collateral abstract this paper studies the implications of the absence of statistical arbitrage opportunities in a two period incomplete market economy where default is allowed but there are collateral requirements modified versions of the fundamental theorem of asset pricing are obtained

the accident externality from driving we estimate auto accident externalities more specifically insurance externalities using panel data on state average insurance premiums and loss costs externalities appear to be substantial in traffic dense states in california for example we find that the increase in traffic density from a typical additional driver increases total statewide insurance costs of other drivers by 1 725 3 239 per year depending on the model high traffic density states have large economically and statistically significant externalities in all specifications we check in contrast the accident externality per driver in low traffic states appears quite small on balance accident externalities are so large that a correcting pigouvian tax could raise 66 billion annually in california alone more than all existing california state taxes during our study period and over 220 billion per year nationally

the impact of household consumption patterns on emissions in spain abstract the aim of this paper is to analyse the relationship between household consumption patterns and pollution in the spanish economy the analysis was carried using a social accounting matrix sam for the spanish economy prepared for 1999 taking the final demand of households as the exogenous account in the sam framework and combining this with the information provided by the household budget continuous survey on income and consumption ine 1999 we analyse the pollution produced by both the economy and households in order to satisfy consumption requirements we also consider the effects of income inequality on expenditure levels establishing a link between income level consumption patterns propensity to consume and co2 emissions

what is the optimal speed limit on freeways abstract when choosing his speed a driver faces a trade off between private benefits time savings and private costs fuel cost and own damage and injury driving faster also has external costs pollution adverse health impacts and injury to other drivers this paper uses large scale speed limit increases in the western united states in 1987 and 1996 to address three related questions first do the social benefits of raising speed limits exceed the social costs second do the private benefits of driving faster exceed the private costs third what is the optimal speed limit i find that a 10 mph speed limit increase on highways leads to a 3 4 mph increase in travel speed 9 15 more accidents 34 60 more fatal accidents and elevated pollutant concentrations of 14 24 carbon monoxide 8 15 nitrogen oxides 1 11 ozone and 9 higher fetal death rates around the affected freeways using these estimates i find that the social costs of speed limit increases are two to seven times larger than the social benefits in contrast many individual drivers would enjoy a net private benefit from driving faster privately a value of a statistical life vsl of 6 0 million or less justifies driving faster but the social planner s vsl could be at most 0 9 2 0 million to justify higher speed limits i conclude that the optimal speed limit was lower but not much lower than 55 mph

why has the introduction of natural gas vehicles failed in germany lessons on the role of market failure in markets for alternative fuel vehicles despite private investments exceeding two billion euros and tax incentives of more than 500 million euros the market share of natural gas vehicles ngvs in germany has lagged far behind expectations and behind market developments in other countries with total cost of ownership being on average lower for ngvs than for gasoline and diesel vehicles this raises the question of the existence of market failure in the german ngv market we use a case study approach where we combine quantitative data with insights from a multi industry expert panel and in depth interviews with experts from industry government and civil society in order to examine whether and how different types of market failure contribute to the status quo in the german market for ngvs we conclude that coordination failure in complementary markets an artificially created monopoly of service stations at motorways imperfect information bounded consumer rationality and principle agent problems are the most prominent market failures inhibiting the development of a functioning market for ngvs our results are instructive for the design of effective public policies and investor strategies aiming to create markets for alternative fuel vehicles

collateral once again abstract this paper shows how collateral is used to prove the second part of the fundamental theorem of asset pricing in a collateral default setting which connects the concept of an arbitrage free price with the solution of the individual utility maximization problem

vehicle miles not traveled fuel economy requirements vehicle characteristics and household driving abstract a major concern with addressing the negative externalities of gasoline consumption by regulating fuel economy rather than increasing fuel taxes is that households respond by driving more this paper exploits a discrete threshold in the eligibility for cash for clunkers to show that fuel economy restrictions lead households to purchase vehicles that have lower cost per mile but are also smaller and lower performance whereas the former effect can increase driving the latter effect can reduce it results indicate that these households do not drive more suggesting that behavioral responses do not necessarily undermine the effectiveness of fuel economy restrictions at reducing gasoline consumption

economic and environmental efficiency using a social accounting matrix abstract this paper aims to show the utility of the so called social accounting matrix and environmental accounts samea for economic and environmental efficiency analysis the article uses the samea for spain in 2000 applied to water resources and greenhouse gas emissions this matrix is used as a central core of a multisectorial model of economic and environmental performance and it calculates the denominated domestics samea multipliers and their decomposition into characteristic direct indirect and induced effects these multipliers show some evaluation of economic and environmental efficiency also we present an application of these multipliers that demonstrates that there is no causal interrelation between those sectors with higher economic backward linkages and those with higher environmental deterioration backward linkages

environmentalism stimulus and inequality reduction through industrial policy did cash for clunkers achieve the trifecta the 2009 american cash for clunkers program which subsidized consumers who scrapped old vehicles and purchased new vehicles was promoted by appealing to multiple constituencies we evaluate the policy and alternatives according to its stated goals emissions reductions economic stimulus and reducing inequality we calibrate a dynamic partial equilibrium portfolio model to match consumer expenditure data from 1998 to 2011 focusing on heterogeneity across cars and trucks we find the program generated 0 17 in environmental benefits 0 28 in consumer surplus and 0 31 in net discounted additional spending per subsidy dollar since subsidies largely went to middle income infra marginal consumers the program exacerbated consumption inequality we evaluate alternative policy designs and find no policy which simultaneously improves all outcomes jel h23 l52 l92 d63

comparing alternative policies to reduce traffic accidents abstract this paper derives and implements formulas for the welfare effects of uniform mileage taxes gasoline taxes per mile insurance premiums and mileage taxes differentiated across vehicle and driver groups for reducing the external costs of passenger vehicle accidents the average external accident cost is estimated at 2 2 6 6 cents per mile accidents costs differ substantially across driver groups but only moderately across vehicles groups annual welfare gains from a mileage tax equal to marginal external costs for each driver vehicle group are 9 4 billion in the benchmark case the uniform mileage tax and per mile insurance reform can achieve 76 and 65 of this welfare gain respectively while the gasoline tax can achieve only 28 of the welfare gain unlike other policies the gasoline tax induces costly improvements in average fleet fuel economy that have little effect on reducing external costs

the role of collateral in a model of debt renegotiation this paper studies the effect of debt renegotiation on the design of optimal loan arrangements in a model of borrowing and lending with asymmetric information renegotiation may occur because bankruptcy involves costly asset liquidation which is ex post inefficient the author shows that the extent of the entrepreneur s liabilities in the optimal loan contract depends upon the creditor s commitment to impose bankruptcy should default ever occur a limited liability arrangement is optimal whenever the creditor is precommited not to forgive any portion of the outstanding debt otherwise debt may efficiently be secured by outside collateral copyright 1994 by ohio state university press

how disagreement about social costs leads to inefficient energy productivity investment public energy productivity investment influences the amount of future energy consumption if a present government expects its successor to value the social costs of fuel usage differently this adds a strategic component to its investment considerations we analyze this governmental time inconsistency situation as a sequential game in particular we show how the expectation of a more conservative party taking over makes a green government choose an investment level that is inefficient in that neither of the parties would prefer it to the investment level of a permanent green government under some circumstances the opposition would even prefer the government definitely to stay in power the gain from avoiding a strategic investment then outweighs the loss of not being able to regulate energy consumption we also analyze the welfare gains from binding agreements

policy watch the economics of fuel economy standards one of the most hotly contested of all energy policy issues involves corporate average fuel economy or cafe standards for new cars and light duty trucks tighter standards would reduce gasoline consumption and hence both greenhouse gas emissions as well as this country s vulnerability to oil price shocks but they would also increase the price of new vehicles worsen traffic congestion and depending on how they are phased in possibly even reduce occupant safety these effects are amenable to economic analysis and we review the evidence to date bearing on this interesting and important question

the effect of vehicle fuel economy standards on technology adoption abstract many countries are tightening passenger vehicle fuel economy standards this paper provides the first empirical evidence on the effects of fuel economy standards on technology adoption we investigate changes in the rate and direction of technology adoption that is the extent to which technology is used to increase fuel economy at the expense of other vehicle attributes we find that recent changes in u s and european standards have both increased the rate of technology adoption and affected the direction of technology adoption producers reduced horsepower and torque compared to a counterfactual in which fuel economy standards remained unchanged we estimate opportunity costs from reduced horsepower and torque to be economically significant relative to the gains from fuel savings

consistent and unbiased carbon dioxide emission multipliers performance of danish emission reductions via external trade abstract climate change research is currently a topic of great interest for economic researchers in particular environmental input output analysis increasingly plays an important role in measuring the economic and environmental effects of sustainable development policies in europe other approaches also exist such as econometric modelling in which impacts are quantified on statistical grounds and with certain desirable properties efficient estimates confidence intervals hypothesis testing etc that are not found in the input output approach consequently this paper merges the two approaches to address the calculation of unbiased and consistent carbon dioxide emission multipliers for denmark and their respective confidence intervals the use of the supply and use system instead of the symmetric input output table also presents the opportunity to avoid the common problems associated with the construction of technical coefficients technology assumptions negatives etc moreover a new policy relevant application of these multipliers is introduced the quantification of the performance of the carbon dioxide emission reductions carried out by industries via external trading

the economics of attribute based regulation theory and evidence from fuel economy standards in many countries fuel economy standards mandate that vehicles meet a certain fuel economy but heavier or larger vehicles are allowed to meet a lower standard this has the perverse implication of allowing automakers to meet standards either by improving fuel economy or by increasing weight which lowers fuel economy and increases externalities related to accidents this is but one example of an attribute based regulation in which the regulation imposed on a product depends on both the externality it creates and some other attribute attribute basing potentially motivates rms and individuals to strategically alter the attribute thereby endogenously altering the stringency of the regulation this paper develops a theory of attribute basing to demonstrate the costs and benets of its use the paper then empirically examines the consequences of attribute based fuel economy standards in japan where fuel economy standards are a notched attribute based function of vehicle weight we use cross sectional and panel techniques to demonstrate that attribute based regulation has signicantly altered the distribution of vehicle weight in japan where 10 of vehicles bunch at weight notches for cars whose weight is altered in response to the policy we estimate that the alteration generates a welfare loss from the exacerbation of weight related externalities of 1 500 per unit sold which translates into a 700 million annual loss across the japanese auto market

identifying the main emitters of carbon dioxide in mexico a multi sectoral study in this paper input output and sam based multiplier models are formulated to identify the main emitters of direct indirect and induced carbon dioxide co2 for the mexican economy the models are based on a social accounting matrix for mexico with disaggre gated household income and consumption patterns according to the official poverty line the results show that the final users of the inputs that embody high levels of co2 emissions are the next five sectors 1 construction 2 electricity gas and water supply 3 inland transport 4 food beverages and tobacco and 5 coke refined petroleum and nuclear fuel the findings suggest that the implementation of a carbon tax could damage poor families since these families generate high direct indirect and induced co2 emissions per unit of income as a consequence of their consumption patterns of fuels and the products that embody high co2 emissions levels for example agriculture hunting forestry and fishing

are consumers myopic evidence from new and used car purchases abstract we investigate whether car buyers are myopic about future fuel costs we estimate the effect of gasoline prices on short run equilibrium prices of cars of different fuel economies we then compare the implied changes in willingness to pay to the associated changes in expected future gasoline costs for cars of different fuel economies in order to calculate implicit discount rates using different assumptions about annual mileage survival rates and demand elasticities we calculate a range of implicit discount rates similar to the range of interest rates paid by car buyers who borrow we interpret this as showing little evidence of consumer myopia jel d12 h25 l11 l62 l71 l81

product differentiation and oligopoly in international markets the case of the u s automobile industry this paper develops and estimates a model of the u s automobile industry on the demand side a discrete choice model is adopted that is estimated using micro data from the consumer expenditure survey the estimation results are used in conjunction with population weights to derive aggregate demand on the supply side the automobile industry is modelled as an oligopoly with product differentiation equilibrium is characterized by the first order conditions of the profit maximizing firms the estimation results are used in counterfactual simulations to investigate two trade policy issues the effects of the ver and exchange rate pass through

stationary equilibria in asset pricing models with incomplete markets and collateral we consider an infinite horizon exchange economy with incomplete markets and collateral constraints as in the two period model of geanakoplos and zame 2002 households can default on their liabilities at any time and financial securities are only traded if the promises associated with these securities are backed by collateral we examine an economy with a single perishable consumption good where the only collateral available consists of productive assets in this model competitive equilibria always exist and we show that under the assumption that all exogenous variables follow a markov chain there also exist stationary equilibria these equilibria can be characterized by a mapping from the exogenous shock and the current distribution of financial wealth to prices and portfolio choices we develop an algorithm to approximate this mapping numerically and discuss ways to implement the algorithm in practice a computational example demonstrates the performance of the algorithm and shows some quantitative features of equilibria in a model with collateral and default

the effect of standards and fuel prices on automobile fuel economy an international analysis abstract there is an intense debate over whether fuel economy standards or fuel taxation is the more efficient policy instrument to raise fuel economy and reduce co 2 emissions of cars the aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of standards and fuel prices on new car fuel economy with the aid of cross section time series analysis of data from 18 countries we employ a dynamic specification of new car fuel consumption as a function of fuel prices standards and per capita income it turns out that standards have induced considerable fuel savings throughout the world although their welfare impact is not examined here if standards are not further tightened then retail fuel prices would have to remain at high levels for more than a decade in order to attain similar fuel savings finally without higher fuel prices or tighter standards one should not expect any marked improvements in fuel economy under business as usual conditions

quality based price discrimination and tax incidence the market for gasoline and diesel cars in europe the existing tax policies toward gasoline and diesel cars in european countries provide a unique opportunity to analyze quality based price discrimination and the implied tax incidence in my econometric framework consumers choose the type of engine based on their annual mileage prices are set by the manufacturers the relative pricing of gasoline and diesel cars appears to be consistent with monopolistic price discrimination effectively segmenting low mileage from high mileage consumers on average about 75 to 90 of the price differentials between gasoline and diesel cars can be explained by markup differences i draw implications for the effectiveness and the revenue effects of tax policy