the market value of outstanding government debt 1919 1975 abstract several new series on the market value of outstanding government debt are reported and their methods of construction described the new series on federal debt are compared with other existing estimates and are shown to be markedly superior to them

optimal taxation with endogenously incomplete debt markets abstract empirical analyses of labor tax and public debt processes provide prima facie evidence for imperfect government insurance this paper considers a model in which the government s inability to commit to future policies or to report truthfully its spending needs renders government debt markets endogenously incomplete a method for solving for optimal fiscal policy under these constraints is developed such policy is found to be intermediate between that implied by the complete insurance ramsey model and a model with exogenously incomplete debt markets in contrast to optimal ramsey policy optimal policy in this model is consistent with a variety of stylized fiscal policy facts such as the high persistence of labor tax rates and debt levels and the positive covariance between government spending and the value of government debt sales

assessing long term fiscal developments a new approach abstract we use a new approach to assess long term fiscal developments by analyzing the time varying behaviour of the two components of government spending and revenue responsiveness and persistence a feature not captured by automatic stabilisers we are able to infer about the sources of fiscal deterioration improvement drawing on quarterly data we estimate recursively these components within a system of government revenue and spending equations using a three stage least square method for eight european union countries plus the us the results suggest that significant changes in the fiscal stance including those related to the current crisis are reflected in the estimates of persistence and responsiveness

on the behavior of fiscal policy with costly expectations espanoleste trabajo extiende el modelo presentado en talvi y vegh 2005 para la determinacion de la politica fiscal optima introduciendo caracteristicas del tipo agent based al igual que en talvi y vegh 2005 el marco teorico es a la barro 1979 pero en el modelo aqui presentado la formacion de expectativas racionales esta asociada a costos que dependen de la complejidad del sistema los agentes pueden elegir dos tipos de estrategias para la formacion de expectativas comprar la observacion en cada periodo correspondiente al proceso de expectativas racionales o seguir la tendencia sin pagar ningun costo a diferencia de talvi y vegh 2005 se muestra que la prociclicidad de la politica fiscal no es necesariamente la conducta optima del gobierno englishthis paper extends the talvi and vegh 2005 model on the behavior of fiscal policy introducing agent based issues like in talvi and vegh 2005 the theoretical framework is a la barro 1979 but rational expectations are costly the agents can choose between two strategies in forming expectations buying costly rational expectations or freely following the trend unlike talvi and vegh 2005 i show that procyclicality of fiscal policy is not necessarily the government s optimal behavior

the quantitative significance of the lucas critique doan litterman and sims dls have suggested using conditional forecasts to do policy analysis with bayesian vector autoregression bvar models their method seems to violate the lucas critique which implies that coefficients of a bvar model will change when there is a change in policy rules in this article we attempt to determine whether the lucas critique is important quantitatively in a bvar macro model that we construct we find evidence following two candidate policy rule changes of significant coefficient instability and of a deterioration in the performance of the dls method

partisan governments the international economy and macroeconomic policies in advanced nations 1960 93 this article examines the impact of parties domestic institutions and the international economy on the conduct of monetary and fiscal policies using time series cross section data from nineteen oecd countries for the years between 1960 and the mid 1990s the results are as follows partisan governments have affected alone and in interaction with the organization of labor markets the pattern of macroeconomic management still their impact has varied over time partly as a function of economic conditions but fundamentally as a function of the degree of financial liberalization and the exchange rate system in place after following broadly similar macroeconomic policies in the 1960s oecd governments pursued divergent monetary and fiscal policies in response to the economic slowdown of the 1970s even when they initially adopted countercyclical measures conservative governments quickly favored tight monetary policies and strove to achieve fiscal discipline by contrast taking advantage of generalized capital controls and floating exchange rates socialist cabinets embraced demand management policies in a systematic fashion mostly through budget deficits in corporatist countries and through both loose monetary and loose fiscal measures in noncorporatist settings as financial liberalization progressed in the early 1980s partisan and institution led differences in macroeconomic policies waned across countries

measures of fit for rational expectations models this survey provides a detailed description of some of the recent theoretical and empirical literature on rational expectations econometrics the survey pays special attention to non stationarity of the data and to the various methods for evaluating rational expectations models that have been developed as alternatives to the classical statistical approach of testing overidentifying restrictions these methods have become very popular and widely used in empirical research we provide an illustration using danish stock market data and we summarize the many results obtained recently using these measures in areas as diverse as stock prices the term structure of interest rates exchange rates consumption and saving the balance of payments tax smoothing hyperinflation and linear quadratic adjustment cost models for inventories labour demand and money demand

abstraction tendencies and stylised facts a realist approach to economic analysis in his numerous methodological asides and assertions that feature in his more empirically oriented postwar contributions nicholas kaldor makes frequent reference to notions of abstraction tendencies and stylized facts however the employment of such terms seems rarely to be explicitly questioned justified or explicated this paper argues that such notions can be readily explicated and their employment justified through adopting an explicitly realist approach to economic analysis it is also argued that realism represents a serious alternative to current orthodox approaches to economics without suffering from some of the latter s more obvious limitations copyright 1989 by oxford university press

intertemporal tax smoothing and the government budget surplus canada and the united states this paper shows that if the government smooths taxes then the budget surplus should equal the present discounted value of expected changes in government expenditure this implication of the tax smoothing hypothesis imposes more stringent restrictions on the data than the more usual method of testing whether changes in tax rates follow a random walk the tax smoothing model is applied to the federal government budgets of canada and the united states and in each case receives considerable empirical support copyright 1995 by ohio state university press

optimal fiscal policy with robust control abstract this paper analyzes how consumer uncertainty affects optimal fiscal policy in the lucas and stokey 1983 framework the consumers lacking confidence in their knowledge of the stochastic environment endogenously tilt their subjective probability model away from an approximating probability model the government though is confident that the approximating probability model characterizes the stochastic environment this confidence dichotomy reveals a range of possible objective functions for an altruistic government i assume that the government maximizes the consumers expected utility under the consumers own subjective probability model it is found that this government relies less heavily on labor taxes to absorb the fiscal shock than would be optimal if consumers were fully confident in their probability model this policy helps mitigate the direct welfare cost associated with consumer uncertainty i compare this policy to the one implemented by a government that maximizes the consumers expected utility under the approximating probability model

optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital abstract this paper is concerned with the structure and time consistency of optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital in a dynamic context optimal taxation means distributing tax distortions over time in a welfare maximizing way for a barter economy our main finding is that with debt commitments of sufficiently rich maturity structure an optimal policy if one exists is time consistent in a monetary economy the idea of optimal taxation must be broadened to include an inflation tax and we find that time consistency does not carry over an optimal inflation tax requires commitment by rules in a sense that has no counterpart in the dynamic theory of ordinary excise taxes the reason time consistency fails in a monetary economy is that nominal assets should from a welfare maximizing point of view always be taxed away via an immediate inflation in a kind of capital levy this emerges as a new possibility when money is introduced into an economy without capital

the relationship between budget deficits and money demand evidence from a small economy a considerable number of empirical studies exploring the links between budget deficits and the demand for money have led to mixed results by using annual data of the greek economy and previous empirical studies this paper empirically evaluates the sensitivity and validity of the keynesian proposition and the ricardian equivalence hypothesis the paper employs cointegration ecm methodology and several diagnostic and specification tests the empirical findings show a significant and positive relationship between budget deficits and the demand for money supporting the keynesian model

consumer prices the consumer price index and the cost of living after presenting major findings and recommendations the cpi commission reiterates the estimate of a 1 1 percentage point per annum upward bias it rejects the contention that the bls already makes substantial corrections for quality change that quality improvements and new products accrue only to the rich and that procedures to make more extensive quality adjustments valuations of new products and adjustments for commodity and outlet substitution are impractical the bias in the cpi can be sharply reduced as the authors detail in this paper coauthors are ellen r dulberger robert j gordon zvi griliches and dale w jorgenson

consumption smoothing capital controls and the current account in ghana much of the empirical evidence on developing economies indicates that the basic intertemporal model of the current account fails to predict the dynamics of the actual current account series this article argues that the model can predict the dynamics of the current account series if it is appropriately adjusted to reflect the nature of capital mobility and exchange rate policies in these countries using data on ghana that span across capital control and liberalized regimes this article reports three finding first consistent with the existing empirical evidence the basic model fails to predict the dynamics of the actual current account second extending the basic model to capture variations in interest rates and exchange rates better explains the path of the actual current account balances only during the liberalized regime third tests of asymmetric access to the international financial market indicate that economic agents in ghana could not use the international financial market to smooth their con

metatheory as the key to understanding schumpeter after shionoya in his recent book yuichi shionoya departs from previous schumpeterian studies he sets out to reconstruct schumpeter s metatheoretical framework which he argues is the key to a correct interpretation of his substantive writings the centrepiece of this project is the thesis that schumpeter has a coherent methodological position instrumentalism which consistently underpins his theoretical work the present paper examines this thesis and in so doing paves the way for an alternative hypothesis on schumpeter this hypothesis is based on tony lawson s work on the philosophy of economics

explaining u s federal deficits 1889 1998 i introduction seater 1993 attempted to provide a common basis for assessing empirical studies of the effects of deficit spending he concluded that evidence of the existence of appreciable effects of u s deficits on macroeconomic variables is questionable in other words the data do not allow for a confident rejection of ricardian equivalence in a world with no macroeconomic effects from deficit spending full information and no distinctions between political and economic markets fluctuations in deficits merely reflect government financing considerations of secondary importance in contrast to this view of the world deficits and surpluses are treated as an important topic in everyday affairs and discourse politicians talk about deficits and surpluses regularly when calling for higher or lower taxes more or less spending revisions in social security funding and other changes in public policy economists and political analysts continue to debate why deficits became a regular feature of federal fiscal management from the late 1960s into the 1990s these debates have spurred divergent theories and conjectures leading to different empirical hypotheses and variables of interest moreover existing empirical studies of the subject have utilized diverse econometric techniques and specifications as a result the competing hypotheses concerning deficit spending have not been tested against one another in a systematic fashion in this article our principal aim is to analyze the different explanations of u s federal deficits jointly estimating competing hypotheses about deficit fluctuations in a generalized reduced form empirical model to achieve this goal we collected and utilized a time series of data running from 1889 to 1998 the apparent paradox between the seemingly innocuous effects of deficits and the political preoccupation with them may owe its existence to one or more reasons limited and noisy information among voters differences between economic and political markets inaccuracy in the measured macroeconomic effects of deficits or other reasons we do not attempt an explanation of why deficits which seemingly exhibit no or small real effects ricardian equivalence could lead politicians and voters to treat deficits as if the ricardian hypothesis were rejected instead we treat explanations of deficits that stem from ricardian premises as one of several hypotheses to be tested ii competing hypotheses we first describe the leading explanations of deficit spending organizing them around common theoretical principles 1 tax smoothing the explanation of deficits which follows directly from a ricardian equivalence theory is the tax smoothing theory developed by barro 1979 2 if deficits generate no real macroeconomic effects and the influences of political institutions and politicians are ignored then optimal public financing considerations govern the use of deficit spending simply put fiscal authorities raise revenue to meet spending needs through income taxation but both spending and income the tax base are subject to uncertain and temporary movements minimization of the deadweight costs of raising a given amount of revenue requires keeping tax rates steady in the face of purely temporary changes in income or spending this is accomplished by running deficits when income is temporarily low or spending is temporarily high and running surpluses in the opposite case imposing a binding no ponzi game npg constraint leads to similar long term behavior of deficits as implied by optimal finance models the npg condition requires that the present value of taxes must equal the present value of spending plus the initial value of debt spending and revenue must share a long term common trend so that primary deficits will be stationary over a long time series deficits and surpluses will offset each other

debts and deficits with fragmented fiscal policymaking abstract this paper develops a political economic model of fiscal policy one in which government resources are a common property out of which interest groups can finance expenditures on their preferred items this setup has striking macroeconomic implications transfers are higher than a benevolent planner would choose them to be fiscal deficits emerge even when there are no reasons for intertemporal smoothing and in the long run government debt tends to be excessively high peculiar time profiles for transfers can emerge with high net transfers early on giving rise to high taxes later on

quantifying quality growth we introduce an instrumental variables approach to estimate the importance of unmeasured quality growth for a set of 66 durable consumer goods our instrument is based on predicting which of these 66 goods will display rapid quality growth using pooled cross relatively sections of households in the 1980 through 1996 u s consumer expenditure surveys we estimate quality engel curves for 66 durable consumer goods based on the extent richer households pay more for a good conditional on purchasing we use the slopes of these curves to predict the rate of quality upgrading just as if households are ascending these quality engel curves over time we find that the average price paid rises faster for goods with steeper quality slopes bls prices likewise increase more quickly for goods with steeper quality slopes suggesting the bls does not fully net out the impact of quality upgrading on prices paid we estimate that quality growth averages about 3 7 per year for our goods with about 60 of this or 2 2 per year showing up as higher inflation rather than higher real growth

a positive model of reserve requirements and interest on reserves a clearinghouse interpretation of the federal reserve system this paper develops a positive model of reserve requirements and interest on reserves based on the observation that congress exempted the fed from a legal restriction that had prevented private clearinghouses from issuing their own currency eliminating the restriction provided the fed with a source of revenue that could be used to finance general government outlays and to pay implicit interest on reserves the model implies that the government s financing requirements help explain reserve requirement movements and that interest rates on reserves vary with market loan rates cointegration error correction and granger causality tests provide supporting evidence

the nature of heterodox economics heterodoxy serves as an umbrella term to cover the coming together of separate projects or traditions in answering the question what distinguishes heterodoxy from the orthodoxy the author argues that matters of ontology are central in answering the question how are the various traditions that make up the modern heterodoxy to be distinguished from each other the author defends criteria other than varying commitments to specific substantive theories policy measures or techniques or basic units of analysis

the tax smoothing hypothesis evidence from sweden 1952 1999 this paper tests barro s 1979 tax smoothing hypothesis using swedish central government data for the period 1952 1999 according to the tax smoothing hypothesis the government sets the budget surplus equal to expected changes in government expenditure when expenditure is expected to increase the government runs a budget surplus and when expenditure is expected to fall the government runs a budget deficit the empirical evidence suggests that the model provides a useful benchmark and that tax smoothing behavior can explain about 60 percent of the variability in the swedish central government budget surplus

u s states the medicaid program and tax smoothing this paper tests the tax smoothing theory by focusing on its implication that a change in permanent government spending should result in an equal sized change in the tax rate the effect of medicaid a state administered federal and state funded medical insurance program for the poor on state tax rates is investigated the medicaid program provides a natural experiment for this test as states are required to cover certain groups in order to receive federal matching money additionally during the 1980s a series of federal mandates greatly increased state medicaid expenditures two stage least squares is used on a panel of u s states 1978 1994 to test whether changes in permanent state medicaid expenditures resulted in equal sized tax rate changes tax smoothing as a positive theory of state government behavior is rejected additionally it is found that this rejection cannot be attributed to the stringency of balanced budget rules

resolving differences in willingness to pay and willingness to accept reply gwendolyn c morrison 1997 raises a logical point regarding our experimental test of the divergence between willingness to pay wtp and willingness to accept wta measures of economic value shogren et al 1994 she argues that our design does not provide a true test of the existence of a fundamental endowment effect since we did not control for the potential of a pivoting indifference map daniel kahneman et al 1990 she concludes that even though our ev idence shows that the mean wtp and wta bids for market goods with close substitutes e g candy bars and coffee mugs converge after market experience the endowment effect might still be alive and well albeit at statisti cally insignificant levels

the u s evidence on optimal taxation over time abstract this paper considers a tax rule in which a uniform tax rate over time becomes optimal its implications are that 1 changes in the tax rate should arise only when there are changes in permanent government expenditures and 2 no variable other than permanent government expenditures should be of any value in predicting the tax rate these implications are tested using u s data for 1937 82 empirical results of the tests reveal that in addition to responding to permanent government expenditures the tax rate also responds to temporary defense purchases the general price level and a time trend

the experience of some oecd economies on tax smoothing observed random walk behaviour of a tax rate does not necessarily support the tax smoothing hypothesis though the latter implies the former this article presents a direct test of tax smoothing by showing that if the tax smoothing hypothesis holds then the future tax rate should cointegrate with the current permanent government expenditure rate even though the tax rate is a random walk this test is a direct and robust test of a number of random walk models available in the literature this procedure also enables us to differentiate among strong tax smoothing weak tax smoothing and no tax smoothing all of which are consistent with the random walk behaviour of a tax rate application of this test to australia canada italy japan the netherlands new zealand the uk and the us show evidence in support of weak forms of tax smoothing

deficits government expenditures and tax smoothing in the united states 1929 1988 abstract barro s tax smoothing hypothesis tsh implies that the government runs a budget deficit whenever it anticipates the growth rate of national income to increase or the growth rate of its expenditure to decline we test this implication of the hypothesis by examining the implied cross equation restrictions on a vector autoregression var model using u s data for the period ranging from 1929 to 1988 our formal tests reject the hypothesis for the full sample period but cannot reject it for the post 1947 period further investigations show that the statistical rejection should be attributed to sharp differences in the statistical properties of the pre 1947 and the post 1947 data rather than the failure of the hypothesis itself

do focus groups and individual interviews reveal the same information for natural resource valuation abstract focus groups and individual interviews have become accepted methods used in the initial stages of valuation research whether focus groups and individual interviews reveal similar valuation information has not been thoroughly studied the research tests the hypothesis that focus groups yield the same ecosystem service information as do individual interviews the research also explores how the focus group and individual interview data might differ the analysis shows that focus groups and individual interviews are not substitutes they yield different information about ecosystem services and resource uses

experiments on the difference between willingness to pay and willingness to accept comment reply willingness to pay wtp and willingness to accept wta measures of welfare change have been found to differ substantially when elicited from surveys or experimental market transactions conventional economic theory suggests that the difference between wtp and wta should be smaller than those observed in empirical tests this study focuses on the hypothesis that the availability of substitutes for the good being evaluated affects the difference between the two measures the results suggest that the existence of a substitute does reduce the difference between wtp and wta however the difference between these two measures is significant with or without substitutes

is the budget deficit too large yes specifically we find that recent spending and taxing policies of the government if continued violate the government s intertemporal budget constraint as a result government spending must be reduced and or tax revenues must be increased these conclusions are based on tests of whether government spending and revenue are cointegrated in addition to examining real spending and revenue we also normalize these variables by real gnp and population for a growing economy these normalized measures are perhaps more pertinent we also test and find support for the hypothesis that deficits have become a problem only in recent years

output effects of government purchases the theoretical analysis focuses on the distinction between temporary and permanent movements in government purchases under plausible conditions the temporary case involves an output response that is positive less than one to one with the change in government purchases and larger than that generated by an equal sized but permanent shift in purchase the equilibrium real rate of return rise in the temporary case but changes little in the permanent one defense purchases are divided empirically into permanent and temporary components by considering the role of temporary wars no temporary shifts in nondefense purchases were isolated empirical results verify an expansionary output effect for temporary purchases that exceeds that of permanent purchases the results for some other expectational hypotheses are found to be generally supportive of the theory

property rights protest and the siting of hazardous waste facilities ture since that time no major hwf has been sited anywhere in the united states the epa had anticipated that local opposition would make finding these sites an exceptionally difficult task their pessimism was well founded and if anything understated according to the hazardous waste counsultant s latest state by state review the outlook for siting hwfs in the future is even more bleak than in the past due in large part to what they term a worsening of the emotional atmosphere surrounding siting efforts this failure to site any new hwf has come about in spite of assurances by government and company officials that new facilities built according to the present standards would pose negligible risks to the local residents attempts have been made to break the deadlock by instituting extensive public participation procedures establishing state siting boards with the power to overrule local decision makers and requiring facility owners to compensate local governments for safety services the latter provided in this paper we argue that the ambiguous nature of the present property rights governing the siting of hwfs is an important cause of the stalemate we offer a new approach to siting which recognizes the de facto property rights assumed by local communities we propose a political market via a referendum

divided government fiscal institutions and budget deficits evidence from the states does partisan control of american state government have systematic effects on state spending and taxing levels does divided control affect the government s ability to make hard decisions do institutional rules like legal deficit carryover restrictions matter using a formal model of fiscal policy to guide empirical analysis of data covering the american states from 1968 to 1987 we conclude that 1 aggregate state budget totals are driven by different factors under democrats and republicans the net result being that democrats target spending and taxes to higher shares of state level personal income 2 divided government is less able to react to revenue shocks that lead to budget deficits particularly where different parties control each chamber of the legislature and 3 unified party governments with restricted ability to carry deficits into the next fiscal year outside the south have sharper reactions to negative revenue shocks than those without restrictions

fiscal deficit sustainability of the spanish regions carrion i silvestre j l fiscal deficit sustainability of the spanish regions regional studies the fiscal deficit of the spanish autonomous communities is investigated using non stationary panel data analysis the paper considers the two main approaches in the literature first assessing whether there is a long run relationship between the revenues and expenditures of the autonomous communities and second focusing on the use of fiscal rules the paper shows that it is possible to relate these approaches in a unified framework

international evidence of tax smoothing in a panel of industrial countries a panel of industrial countries is examined for evidence of tax smoothing tax smoothing results when governments minimize tax distortions over time the model provides a positive theory of government debt and is due primarily to barro unit root tests are performed in panel data to test the null hypothesis of nonstationary tax rates panel regressions are then undertaken to test the null hypothesis that tax rate changes are unpredictable and test for evidence of an alternative hypothesis political and economic variables are examined for their ability to predict tax rate changes overall the results cannot reject the null hypotheses and support tax smoothing by national governments

a political economy theory of fiscal policy and unemployment this paper presents a political economy theory of fiscal policy and unemployment the underlying economic model is one in which unemployment can arise but can be mitigated by tax cuts and public spending increases such policies are fiscally costly but can be financed by issuing government debt policy decisions are made by a legislature consisting of representatives from different political districts the theory provides a positive account of the simultaneous determination of fiscal policy and unemployment the most important implication of the theory is that debt and unemployment levels should be positively correlated some evidence in support of this prediction is provided using data from a panel of developed countries

information and the divergence between willingness to accept and willingness to pay abstract there is considerable empirical and experimental evidence that there is a divergence between willingness to accept compensation to give up a good and willingness to pay to obtain a good this divergence persists even when the good in question is small relative to income a result in apparent conflict with standard economic theory this paper develops a theoretical bidding model with costly information acquisition to explain this divergence the model generates a gap between offers to sell and bids to buy consistent with the experimental results we argue that the model does a better job of explaining empirical and experimental data than either of the two commonly invoked theoretical explanations the endowment effect and the substitution effect

model uncertainty and intertemporal tax smoothing in this paper we examine how model uncertainty due to the preference for robustness rb aects optimal taxation and the evolution of debt in the barro tax smoothing model 1979 we rst study how the government spending shocks are absorbed in the short run by varying taxes or through debt under rb furthermore we show that introducing rb improves the model s predictions by generating i the observed relative volatility of the changes in tax rates to government spending ii the observed comovement between government decits and spending and iii more consistent behavior of government budget decits in the us economy finally we show that rb can also improve the model s predictions in the presence of multiple shocks

measuring the fed s revenue from money creation abstract the national accounts include the fed s payments to the treasury as a component of corporate taxes these payments constituted 22 of reported corporate profits taxes in 1981 alternative concepts of inflationary finance are considered with measurements provided for the post world war ii period

optimal taxation with private government information the ramsey model of fiscal policy implies that taxes should be smooth in the sense of having small variances in contrast empirical labour tax processes are smooth in the sense of being random walks they provide prima facie evidence for incomplete government insurance this paper considers whether private government information might lie behind such incomplete insurance it shows that optimal incentive compatible policies exhibit limited use of state contingent debt and greater persistence in taxes and debt and it argues that they are better approximations to empirical fiscal policies than those implied by the ramsey model the paper also establishes that optimal incentive compatible allocations converge to allocations such that the government s incentive compatibility constraint no longer binds generally these limiting allocations are ones in which the government is maximally indebted their credibility and the interaction of incentive compatibility and credibility is briefly discussed

fiscal transfers and fiscal sustainability we examine whether the u s and german state governments pursue sustainable fiscal policies taking into account fiscal transfers using panel data techniques we investigate whether the debt to gdp ratio had a positive influence on the primary surplus bohn model we show that including excluding fiscal transfers changes the results if fiscal transfers are not included in the primary surplus the test results do not indicate that the u s and german state governments pursued sustainable fiscal policies our results also suggest that fiscal transfers were positively related to debt these findings indicate that intergovernmental transfers have implicitly subsidized debts

consumers opinion of inflation bias due to quality improvements abstract measurement of quality changes has proven to be an especially difficult aspect of calculating unbiased rates of inflation we propose a new methodology of capturing quality improvements based on consumer focus groups and apply this methodology in an environment where quality changes might be expected to be especially rapid and extensive a post communist transition economy we find that the methodology indicates a substantial understatement of quality improvements during transition and therefore a substantial overstatement of inflation resulting in a serious downward bias in growth rate estimates for post communist economies the move to free markets has apparently improved consumers welfare more by improving what they can purchase than by increasing how much they can purchase overall mismeasurement of quality changes may have understated czech growth rates during the first decade after communism by as much as 5 percentage points per year

on some criticisms of critical realism in economics methodological comments on critical realism in economics have proliferated over the past decade typically focusing on tony lawson s economics and reality and reorienting economics which constitute the core of this project in the present paper we select a series of important mostly very recent arguments against critical realism in economics and assess their merits and demerits

tax base variability and procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries abstract based on a sample of 56 countries we show that fiscal policy in the g7 countries appears to be acyclical while fiscal policy in developing countries is procyclical i e fiscal policy is expansionary in good times and contractionary in bad times to explain this puzzle we develop an optimal fiscal policy model in which running budget surpluses is costly because they create pressures to increase public spending given this distortion a government that faces large fluctuations in the tax base as is the case for developing countries will find it optimal to run a procyclical fiscal policy

joint implications of consumption and tax smoothing in this paper the joint hypotheses of consumption and tax smoothing are shown to imply that the present value of expected proportionate declines in government non interest outlays is approximately equal to a log linear function of the budget deficit and private dissaving in this exact linear relation the budget deficit signals declines in future government outlays after controlling for prospective changes in the tax base private dissaving controls for such prospective changes since under the joint hypotheses the present value of expected proportionate rises in tax revenues are approximately equal to a log linear function of private dissaving both exact linear relations are tested in a var framework on annual post world war ii u s data we find considerable empirical support for the theory

an assessment of the stability and growth pact reform in a small scale macro framework abstract this paper contributes to the debate on emu fiscal governance we simulate a small scale macroeconomic model with forward looking agents augmented with a public finance block we account for positive output stabilization and negative via risk premia effects of debt and deficit we compare the working of the fiscal compact with the maastricht 3 deficit limit status quo and a public investment rule we evaluate their performance in terms of output and inflation during fiscal consolidation and following demand and supply shocks at the steady state all rules guarantee long run sustainability the investment rule robustly displays the lowest output loss followed by the status quo the fiscal compact rule appears to be the most recessionary and deflationary

on the limitations of government borrowing a framework for empiricaltesting this paper seeks to distinguish empirically between two views on the limitations of government borrowing according to one view nothing precludes the government from running a permanent budget deficit paying interest due on the growing debt load simply by issuing new debt an alternative perspective holds that creditors would be unwilling to purchase government debt unless the government made a credible commitment to balance its budget in present value terms we show that distinguishing between these possibilities is mathematically equivalent to testing whether a continuing currency inflation might be fueled by speculation alone or is instead driven solely by economic fundamentals empirical tests which have been developed for this economic question lead us to conclude that postwar u s deficits are largely consistent with the proposition that the government budget must be balanced in present value terms this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

are state and provincial governments tax smoothing evidence from panel data the theory of debt examined here is known variously as efficient taxation over time optimal taxation over time the equilibrium approach to fiscal policy or tax smoothing tax smoothing results when an efficient government fixes tax rates today to minimize the costs of taxation over time given the long run constraint of a balanced budget if the marginal costs of taxation are an increasing function of the amount of resources taxed i e the tax rate then minimization of the total costs of taxation implies that the planned tax rate will be constant over time tax rate changes will be unpredictable and the tax rate will behave as a random walk efficient governments will not adjust tax rates to accommodate temporary changes in expenditures and revenues instead governments will minimize tax rate changes by tax smoothing smoothing tax rates implies that temporary changes in government spending and output result in deficits and surpluses therefore tax smoothing provides a theory of government debt the model is primarily due to barro 1 the goal of this paper is to contribute to our understanding of government debt the focus of this paper is on state and provincial debt or what is generally referred to as state and local debt nearly every state government in the united states has a balanced budget rule however balanced budget rules are not sufficient to rule out tax smoothing as state governments could build up budget surpluses in good times to smooth budgets over the business cycle if state governments are smoothing tax rates then their budget surpluses are endogenous contrary to the state governments provincial governments in canada have no balanced budget rules if provincial governments are smoothing tax rates it could explain the behavior of their budget deficits and surpluses as shown by barro tax smoothing implies that the overall tax rate behaves as a random walk and the tax rate would be a nonstationary time series with a unit root this study examines the tax smoothing hypothesis in two ways first the random walk implication is examined directly by testing the null hypothesis that the tax rate time series has a unit root second if the tax rate behaves as a random walk then changes in the tax rate should be unpredictable from past information if past information can predict tax rate changes this would provide evidence in favor of an alternative hypothesis a rejection of tax smoothing suggests that state and provincial tax rates respond to current

quality change in price indexes price indexes provide the fundamental building blocks for measuring the general price level along with real incomes and real output but the most important single price index for the united states the cpi has been criticized as significantly underestimating the pace of quality change this paper sketches the issues involved in the measurement of quality change in price indexes it reviews the theory of quality change discusses how the bureau of labor statistics deals with quality change and provides examples of measurement issues in practice it concludes with a proposal to resolve the massive uncertainties in this area

how does war shock the economy abstract wartime periods have frequently been treated as natural macroeconomic experiments but the international pooled time series evidence presented here shows that the literature has over emphasized the experience of the united states and the united kingdom wars fought exclusively on foreign soil do have marginally higher real output growth than peacetime periods but real growth during all other wars is sharply below peacetime levels evidence for foreign and domestic wars is consistent with monetarist fiscalist and mixed theories of wartime booms

a dynamic theory of public spending taxation and debt this paper presents a dynamic political economy theory of public spending taxation and debt policy choices are made by a legislature consisting of representatives elected by geographically defined districts the legislature can raise revenues via a distortionary income tax and by borrowing these revenues can be used tofinance a national public good and district specific transfers interpreted as pork barrel spending the value of the public good is stochastic reflecting shocks such as wars or natural disasters in equilibrium policy making cycles between two distinct regimes business as usual in which legislators bargain over the allocation of pork and responsible policy making in which policies maximize the collective good transitions between the two regimes are brought about by shocks in the value of the public good in the long run equilibrium tax rates are too high and too volatile public good provision is too low and debt levels are too high in some environments a balanced budget requirement can improve citizen welfare

political cycles fiscal deficits and output spillovers in europe this paper investigates whether national elections in europegenerate political cycles in other european countries and ifso whether these spillover effects are likely to surviveinside emu the paper first tests whether elections in germanyaffect macroeconomic outcomes in other european countries andthen investigates the impact of elections on budget deficits the results indicate that german politics significantlyimpacts macroeconomic variables in other european countries and also that politics significantly affects the behaviour ofeuropean budgetary policy the prospect of elections tends toincrease public deficits in recessions whereas left winggovernments tend to be more deficit prone than right winggovernments regardless of the state of the economy moreover the existence of political cycles spillovers among europeancountries suggest that there may be a need for electoralcoordination

seigniorage and tax smoothing in the united states 1914 1986 abstract when monetary and fiscal authorities cooperate to minimize the distortionary costs of financing an exogenous stream of government expenditures barro s tax smoothing model implies a long run relationship between tax revenues and inflation previous empirical tests of this relationship are reinterpreted in light of recent work on cointegration and are shown to hold only when stochastic temporal variation in the excess burden of taxes and seigniorage is transitory in nature a new test that holds in the presence of nonstationary disturbances is developed and applied annual u s data from the period 1914 to 1986 reject the revenue smoothing hypothesis

how do flexible labour markets really work the role of profitability in influencing unemployment this paper assesses the theoretical justifications available for policies of flexible labour markets flms in reducing the level of unemployment in developed economies it empirically assesses the oecd s rationalisation of policy linking profitability to investment and job creation in four country cases new capital investment is found to be significant for unemployment in all cases but it is not found to be a consequence of the mechanistic achievement of normal profits without an empirically supported mechanism for how flms reduce unemployment the policy is open to the accusation of being no more than a political tool for altering distribution without concern for the wider socio economic consequences copyright the author 2008 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

politico economic determinants of public debt growth a case study for austria based on a number of economic andparticularly politico economic arguments we examine the reasons for the growth ofthe central government s debt in austriausing time series data for the period 1960 to 1999 starting with an empiricaltest of bohn s theory of sustainability offiscal policy which is based on barro stax smoothing model we extend the model toaccount for several politico economicvariables suggested by public choicetheories keynesian stabilization policyobjectives influences of ideology andpolitical parties the form of governmentand the political business cycle are testedregarding their ability to explain thegrowth of public debt in austria there issome empirical evidence for systematicinfluence of government behavior inaccordance with recent public choicetheories however it seems that the mostimportant influence on austrian fiscalpolicy is the unemployment rate which has asignificant influence on the decisions madeby policy makers concluding we brieflydiscuss the implications of these resultsfor the prospects of reducing public debtin austria in the near future

an investigation of ricardian equivalence in a common trends model abstract to empirically discriminate between ricardian and non ricardian behaviour we have to use a method that distinguishes between expected and unexpected as well as permanent and transitory changes in taxes and government consumption one method that provides these distinctions between different types of changes is the common trends framework used in this paper which is a var model with cointegrating constraints in the empirical study of us data there is some support for the ricardian hypothesis but there are also some deviations from its predictions however the differences do not lend support to a keynesian view of budget deficits but rather to the view of expansionary fiscal contractions this can be motivated theoretically by uncertainty about future taxes in combination with prudent households

testing intertemporal budget constraints theory and applications to u s federal budget and current account deficits this paper extends previous tests of intertemporal budget balance and present value relationships by expanding the set of allowable deficit processes and by deriving a testable condition that is sufficient to ensure intertemporal budget balance as long as the expected discount rate is strictly positive using these tests the authors find that both the postwar federal budget deficit process and the process governing accumulation of u s assets by foreigners are consistent with intertemporal budget balance copyright 1991 by ohio state university press

common trends the government s budget constraint and revenue smoothing abstract the requirement that the government s budget be balanced in present value terms is shown to be equivalent to the condition that government expenditures inclusive of interest tax receipts and seignorage be cointegrated the condition is in fact stronger requiring that the deficit inclusive of interest be stationary stationarity of the net of interest deficit is neither necessary nor sufficient for intertemporal budget balance however it does have implications for barro s tax smoothing hypothesis data for the period 1890 1986 are consistent with intertemporal budget balance but not with tax smoothing

international evidence on fiscal solvency is fiscal policy responsible abstract we conduct a cross country empirical analysis of fiscal solvency based on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium conditions the results show evidence of fiscal solvency in the form of a robust positive conditional response of the primary balance to changes in public debt in panels for emerging and industrial economies and in a combined panel emerging economies show a stronger response and hence converge to lower mean debt output ratios as observed in the data the results are weaker for countries with debt ratios exceeding panel means and medians hence we can separate countries where fiscal solvency holds from those where it remains in doubt

realist philosophy of the social sciences and economics a critique this paper deals with critical realism as a contribution to the philosophy of the social sciences in the first section critical realism is introduced differences from other philosophies of sciences espicially positivism and falsificationism are discussed in the second section critical realism is criticised first for failing as a normative philosophy of science second for relying upon an impoverished notion of knowledge acquistion and finally for its unsuitablity as a contribution to social theory

synthesizing the malthusian and senian approaches on scarcity a realist account food entitlement decline fed and food availability decline fad are two approaches to explaining famines that have different policy implications one focuses on the systemic level whereas the other is concerned with the individual level they therefore analyse relatively distinct causal mechanisms thus an important question is whether these approaches can be reconciled another related question is how fad and fed based explanations relate to classical malthusian views about rapid food requirement increase fri this paper analyses these questions and argues that these three approaches can indeed be reconciled within a single framework by outlining the causal sources of fad fed and fri this task requires among other things the separation of ontological categories and empirical measures as a consequence of this argument the paper suggests that there are only seven possible ontological combinations of how a famine situation can arise as a direct cause simultaneously it maintains that there are virtually an infinite number of ways in which these combinations may act as indirect causes rooted in economic political and social conditions the analysis is exemplified by the bengal famine of 1943 because that famine is a well known case the wider research and policy applicability of this general account are discussed but have yet to be tested in relation to other scarcity cases water land fish this synthesis is made possible by the incorporation of critical realist interventions into economic theory

u s deficits since world war i the tax smoothing theory suggests that deficits would respond particularly to recession temporarily high government spending and anticipated inflation my empirical estimates indicate that a relation of this type is reasonably stable in the u s since at least 1916 in particular the statistical evidence does not support the idea that there has been a shift toward a fiscal policy that generates either more real public debt on average or that generates larger deficits in response to recessions further the deficits for 1982 3 and popular projections formed in 1984 for 1984 5 are consistent with the previous structure the high values of these deficits reflect the customary response to substantial recession interacting with big government and to expected inflation

the ricardian approach to budget deficits persistent budget deficits have increased economists interest in theories and evidence about fiscal policy this paper develops the ricardian approach and contrasts it with standard models the discussion considers from major theoretical objections to ricardian equivalence finite lifetimes imperfect capital markets uncertainty about future taxes and incomes and the distorting effects of taxation the paper then considers empirical evidence on interest rates consumption and saving and current account deficits the conclusion is that the ricardian approach is a useful first order approximation and that this approach will probably become the benchmark model for assessing fiscal policy this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

what if alexander hamilton had been argentinean a comparison of the early monetary experiences of argentina and the united states abstract the contrast between the early nineteenth century argentinean experience of high inflation and the american experience of low inflation is interpreted in terms of an optimal taxation model it is argued that the two countries experiences diverged because of the different constraints they faced in financing wartime government expenditures in the presence of frequent wars ever tightening access to foreign capital and an inadequate tax base argentina s use of the inflation tax may be viewed as an optimal solution to its wartime problems by contrast with the exception of the revolutionary war the absence of such constraints in the united states required full tax smoothing with only a temporary use of the inflation tax during wartime such policies were embodied in alexander hamilton s fiscal package of 1790 which allowed the united states to bond finance most subsequent wartime expenditures

are bond financed deficits inflationary a ricardian analysis this paper considers the possible theoretical validity of the following monetarist hypothesis that a constant positive government budget deficit can be maintained permanently and without inflation if it is financed by the issue of bonds rather than money the question is studied in a discrete time perfect foresight version of the competitive equilibrium model of sidrauski modified by the inclusion of government bonds as a third asset it is shown that the monetarist hypothesis is invalid if the deficit is defined exclusive of interest payments but that it is valid under the conventional definition it is also shown that the stock of bonds can grow indefinitely at a rate in excess of the rate of output growth provided that the difference is less than the rate of time preference these formal conclusions do not take account of possible limitations on taxing capacity arising from default incentives that tend to grow with the stock of bonds

fiscal policy over the real business cycle a positive theory this paper presents a political economy theory of the behavior of fiscal policy over the business cycle the theory predicts that in both booms and recessions fiscal policies are set so that the marginal cost of public funds obeys a submartingale in the short run fiscal policy can be pro cyclical with government debt spiking up upon entering a boom however in the long run fiscal policy is counter cyclical with debt increasing in recessions and decreasing in booms government spending increases in booms and decreases during recessions while tax rates decrease during booms and increase in recessions data on tax rates from the g7 countries supports the submartingale prediction and the correlations between fiscal policy variables and national income implied by the theory are consistent with much of the existing evidence from the u s and other countries

budget balance through revenue or spending adjustments abstract the paper provides a historical perspective on the issue of whether budget deficits are typically eliminated by increased taxes or by reduced spending by examining u s budget data from 1792 1988 i conclude that about 50 65 of all deficits due to tax cuts and about 65 70 of all deficits due to higher government spending have been eliminated by subsequent spending cuts while the remainder was eliminated by subsequent tax increases in contrast to previous studies the empirical analysis uses error correction models in a way that the intertemporal budget constraint is imposed in the estimation stage

current accounts in the euro area an intertemporal approach abstract current accounts have diverged substantially among euro area countries since the creation of the euro this divergence has raised concerns about the sustainability of some member countries external indebtedness this paper uses an intertemporal model of the current account to analyze the fluctuations in current account balances experienced by euro area countries over the last three decades and to disentangle its determinants we find that the model is not rejected for six of the ten euro area countries examined belgium france italy netherlands portugal and spain although it tends to underestimate their current account volatility for these countries we derive the expectations about future income and relative prices which according to the model underlie their current account balances expectations about future growth increased in all southern european countries at the creation of the euro but they diverged considerably by 2005 while in portugal these expectations were below its historical mean by then in spain they were at an historical high

debt and tariffs an empirical investigation of the evolution of revenue systems abstract this paper presents a theoretical framework where government chooses fiscal structure so as to maximize political support and where the evolution of fiscal systems is determined by changing economic political and administrative factors estimating equations are derived and the model is used to explain the development of revenue structure in canada from 1871 to 1913 a period when major revenue sources consisted of the tariff debt and excises the empirical analysis distinguishes between government plans and ex post observations of public revenues and places particular emphasis on the derivation of hypotheses linking economic political and administrative variables to revenue structure

fiscal sustainability and dollarization the case of ecuador abstractthis article tries to disentangle the dynamic relationships between fiscal variables and economic activity in a small emerging economy characterized by full dollarization namely ecuador we find that fiscal policy in ecuador seems to be sustainable explained by its policy of debt payment through oil revenues rather than by a fiscal discipline that dollarization is supposed to encourage the non oil tax revenues variable is a purely adjusting variable this result suggests that in a dollarized country that cannot benefit from the seignorage revenues the reliance on volatile oil revenues and on smoothing tax revenues leaves the economy s fiscal sustainability vulnerable

international transmission of us macroeconomic policy and the inflation record of western europe abstract the interaction between monetary policy government budget deficits and inflation is examined for the four largest western european economies comprising france italy the united kingdom and west germany in order to assess the possible impact of us macroeconomic policy past us monetary base growth deficits and inflation rates are included in the set of explanatory variables for each of the european countries empirical results for the 1962 2 1985 4 sample period reveal interplay between domestic monetary and fiscal policy to be augmented by a significant impact of the us variables across all four countries in the sample

public debt in brazil sustentability and its implications abstract this paper tests sustainability of brazilian public debt in the period 1991 to 2009 and analyzes implications of requiring that the brazilian fiscal policy be primarily committed to the sustainability of the public debt the retrospective analysis utilizes a set of unit root tests and avoids some of the criticism leveled at previous studies by using data which has not previously been used for this purpose and concludes that the public debt was sustainable in the period we consider the prospective analysis is based on the dsge model proposed by jodi gali et al 2007 calibrated for brazil using the conclusions of the retrospective analysis for the fiscal parameters the scenarios produced with the help of the model show that maintaining the sustainability of the public debt is consistent with the monetary policy of inflation targeting we also conclude that it is possible to reduce interest rates to levels below those prevalent at the end of 2010 simultaneously maintaining the stability of the trajectory of the public debt

are stationarity and cointegration restrictions really necessary for the intertemporal budget constraint abstract time series related to fiscal and external deficits are commonly subjected to stationarity and cointegration tests to assess if the deficits are sustainable such tests are incapable of rejecting sustainability the intertemporal budget constraint proves to be satisfied if either the debt series or the revenue and with interest spending series are integrated of arbitrarily high order i e stationary after differencing arbitrarily often revenues and spending do not have to be cointegrated rejections of low order difference stationarity and of cointegration are thus consistent with the intertemporal budget constraint error correction type policy reaction functions are suggested as more promising for understanding deficit problems

us deficit sustainability a new approach based on multiple endogenous breaks recent empirical work has questioned the consistency of us fiscal policy with an intertemporal budget constraint empirical results have tended to indicate that the deficit process has undergone at least one structural shift during recent decades with the deficit becoming either unsustainable or sustainable in only a weak sense in the post shift period in this paper we re examine sustainability using a new approach based on a cointegration model with multiple endogenous breaks a bayesian methodology is applied incorporating markov chain monte carlo simulators in contrast to previous analyses we find evidence of a sustainable deficit process over the 1947 1992 period despite the occurrence of breaks during the 1970s and 1980s copyright 2000 john wiley sons ltd

non linear budgetary policies evidence from 150 years of italian public finance we investigate the sustainability of italy s public nances from 1862 to 2012 adopting a non linear perspective speci cally we employ the smooth transition regression approach to explore the scope for non linear scal adjustments of primary surpluses in response to the accumulation of debt the empirical results show the occurrence of a signi cantly positive reaction of primary surpluses to debt when the debt gdp ratio exceeded the trigger value of 110 percent the afterthreshold positive response implies that the path of italy s scal policy is su ciently consistent with the intertemporal budget constraint

u s federal indebtedness and the conduct of fiscal policy abstract this paper examines whether the conduct of u s fiscal policy since the 1920s has been influenced by constraints on the accumulated stock of outstanding federal debt the evidence is affirmative during most of the inter and post war period policy in effect stabilized the federal debt relative to gnp but after 1981 large debt and debt service costs failed to produce deficit reductions consistent with the pattern of previous decades

how does trade openness influence budget deficits in developing countries abstract this paper analyses the effects of trade openness on budget balances by distinguishing the effects of natural openness from those of trade policy revealed indicators of natural openness and trade policy are computed using gmm system estimator the econometric analysis focuses on 66 developing countries over 1974 98 the results show that trade openness increases a country s exposure to external shocks this enforces the negative impact on budget balances of terms of trade instability additionally trade openness influences budget balances through several other channels corruption income inequalities etc then natural openness and trade policy have opposite effects the former deteriorates budget balances whereas the latter enhances them

the sensitivity of tests of the intertemporal allocation of consumption to near rational alternatives suppose a consumer sets consumption equal to income each period rather than following the optimal permanent income decision rule how much utility does he lose this paper finds that the answer is typically less than 10 cents 1 per quarter in environments specified by popular tests on aggregate data it includes calculations of the costs of excess sensitivity and excess smoothness to income and interest rate changes and the costs of ignoring information it concludes that the theory does not make predictions for aggregate tests that are robust to small costs such as information or transactions copyright 1989 by american economic association

theory of tax smoothing in the small open economy abstract we derive necessary and sufficient conditions for the martingale like behavior of tax rates the world real interest rate is exogenous to the small domestic economy consumers are risk averse and markets are incomplete the government s loss function is not ad hoc

fiscal regimes and fiscal sustainability in sri lanka this paper employs the regime switching model based fiscal sustainability test which relaxes the linear fiscal reaction function approach there is evidence of a regime switching fiscal rule in sri