armington elasticities for energy policy modeling evidence from four european countries elasticities of substitution among imports and competing domestic production armington elasticities play an important role in computable general equilibrium cge assessments of energy and climate policy this paper provides estimates of armington elasticities for 15 commodity groups in four european countries since armington elasticities are found to be rather low on average researchers may want to reconsider the device of using high values of armington elasticities in cge models to avoid unrealistic competitiveness effects or emission leakage rates associated with energy or carbon taxes or other forms of energy related regulation estimated elasticities tend to be higher in the case of machinery and other investment goods than in the case of primary products ores and chemicals as well as consumer goods

consumer stated purchasing preferences and corporate social responsibility in the wood products industry a conjoint analysis in the u s and china the impacts of disclosed level of corporate social responsibility csr domestic versus imported origin and type of construction on consumers stated wood product purchasing preferences were examined in the u s and china hierarchical logit models based on a bayesian framework were utilized to test the magnitude and statistical significance of each wood product attribute using survey data results indicate that u s and chinese respondents a were more likely to choose products from manufacturing companies with a higher level of csr rating compared with an unknown one b preferred domestically manufactured wood products compared to imported ones and c expressed higher interest in wood products made of solid wood compared with composites in terms of demographics respondents higher education levels corresponded with higher preferences for products from companies with the highest five star csr rating in the u s statistically significant income effects were detected only in the chinese sample when respondents indicated their purchasing preferences for wood products with three star or five star csr levels implications for improving wood products companies managerial performance and suggestions for future studies are provided

the effect of urbanization affluence and trade openness on energy consumption a time series analysis in malaysia abstract this paper investigates the impact of urbanization on energy consumption by applying the stochastic impacts by regression on population affluence and technology stirpat in case of malaysia the study covers the time period of 1970q1 2011q4 the unit root test and the ardl bounds testing approach have been applied to examine integrating properties and long run relationship in the presence of structural breaks our results validated the existence of cointegration and exposed that urbanization is a major contributor in energy consumption affluence raises energy demand capital stock boosts energy consumption trade openness leads to affluence and hence increases energy consumption the causality analysis finds that urbanization granger causes energy consumption the feedback effect is found between energy consumption and affluence and energy consumption and capital the bidirectional causality exists between trade openness and energy consumption

energy consumption and gdp in developing countries a cointegrated panel analysis in this paper we re investigate the co movement and the causality relationship between energy consumption and gdp in 18 developing countries using data for the period 1975 to 2001 recently developed tests for the panel unit root heterogeneous panel cointegration and panel based error correction models are employed the empirical results provide clear support of a long run cointegration relationship after allowing for the heterogeneous country effect the long run relationship is estimated using a full modified ols the evidence shows that long run and short run causalities run from energy consumption to gdp but not vice versa this result indicates that energy conservation may harm economic growth in developing countries regardless of being transitory or permanent

environmental drag evidence from norway abstract economic growth affects the environment negatively a polluted environment and other environmental constraints reduce economic output and the well being of consumers the cost to society of environmental constraints may be called the environmental drag the traditional economic analysis of growth neglects the environmental drag while this paper attempts to measure it empirically we employ a dynamic general equilibrium model of the norwegian economy extended to include some important environmental linkages which feed back to the productivity of labor and capital from damages to health materials and nature the environment also directly affects the consumers well being using this model we are able to estimate the environmental drag measured as reduced welfare from consumption and environmental services we present macroeconomic effects in terms of reduced production and consumption and calculate the overall welfare effects we find that the environmental constraints incorporated in the model probably have a modest effect on production over the next century the direct welfare loss from a degraded environmental quality however is significant a lower rate of technological growth and a lower discount rate both increase the drag

are politics and geography related evidence from a cross section of capital cities with a few prominent exceptions a capital city is typically alsothe biggest city of its country this might suggest that a capitalcity is more attractive than other cities because of thecapital city function in the paper we test this hypothesis bylooking at employment growth in a sample of capital cities employment growth might indicate outmigration from the politicalhinterland and immigration into the capital city specifically welook at a sample of regional capitals that consists of west germancounty seats these county seats underwent reform in the latesixties and early seventies in this sample we can rejectthe idea that the county capital role does not have apositive influence on local employment growth

metropolitan evolution sectoral economic change and the city size distribution metropolitan evolution is conceptualised from a broad long term perspective that focuses on demographic and sectoral economic variables emphasis is placed on understanding these changes from a process oriented approach that considers its general relevance rather than its outcomes or microanalytic details a selective review of the literature provides a significant perspective and background on the stages model that is applied to the study of metropolitan change this is then related to the pareto city size distribution by considering the interurban population distribution coefficient and its expected performance over the various phases of metropolitan evolution a hypothetical interurban manufacturing employment distribution coefficient analogous to the pareto population coefficient is also considered and is related to the process of metropolitan and interurban sectoral economic change the relationship between metropolitan change and national urban size distribution is viewed as a significant compone

optimal urban population size national vs local economic efficiency this paper explores whether the population size of the seoul metropolitan area sma in korea is efficient in terms of the national economy to undertake this analysis a recursively dynamic interregional computable general equilibrium icge model with a population module is developed in this model the explicit costs and benefits of population growth are estimated by using the industrial value added and consumer price inflation functions for each region the counter factual analysis shows that national population decentralisation away from the sma is desirable for korea s economic growth korea s gdp is estimated to be maximised when the sma s national population share is at 39 per cent in the short term and 35 per cent in the long term however the sma government is likely to have incentive to maintain its population at around 40 per cent of the national population where per capita income at the regional not national level is maximised

is economic growth improving urbanisation a cross regional study of china this study applies a bootstrap panel granger causality test to determine the relationship between urbanisation and economic growth for china we find that the patterns of interaction between urbanisation and economic growth vary across different regions the empirical results show that in urbanisation of the northern coastal region and most of the inland region granger causes economic growth whereas economic growth does not have a significant effect on urbanisation except in the southern coastal region and the inland region one fourth of china s provinces primarily in the southern coastal region do not show a granger causality relationship between urbanisation and economic growth this finding indicates that urbanisation has promoted economic growth by expanding demand and that economic growth s effect on urbanisation is restricted by administrative intervention rather than market mechanisms thus the findings for three fourths of the provinces in china conform to the urbanised economy theory these

conjoint effect of environmental labeling disclosure of forest of origin and price on consumer preferences for wood products in the us and uk abstract a study that conjointly analyzed the effects of environmental labeling disclosure of forest of origin and price on consumer preferences for wood products was conducted in the us and the uk a choice based elicitation tool was used to mimic a real life situation where a single product was selected over a set of options data collected were analyzed using a conditional logit model certification issued by a government agency or an environmental non government organization both had a favorable effect on consumer preference over a non certified option the most relevant implication of our findings was the negative effect that disclosing information about a product coming from tropical forests had on consumer preferences even compared to a product of unknown origin a decline in product preference was observed along higher price premiums as expected the degree of sensitivity to price changes was affected by demographic characteristics model coefficients were used to estimate market shares of tropical wood products under different scenarios in both countries scenarios explored the effect of environmental certification and price premiums on product market shares

ecologically sustainable development and project appraisal in developing countries abstract this article examines how the concept of ecological sustainability may affect project appraisal for developing countries it is argued that three criteria should be applied viz efficiency equity and ecological sustainability operationalization of the sustainability criterion requires that policy makers set targets for natural resource use moreover they need to address new trade offs for instance between short term income objectives efficiency and long term environmental objectives sustainability the new issues raised by the sustainability criterion require a review of the applicability of project appraisal methods cost benefit analysis cba has been used most frequently but its usefulness in sustainability oriented project appraisal is shown to be limited despite some methodological problems multi criteria analysis mca should be regarded as an appropriate alternative or complementary appraisal tool mca does not require monetarization of effects nor does it exclusively focus on efficiency measurement these advantages apply particularly to developing countries where the data base is weak economic activities are directly dependent on natural resources and distribution concerns are strong mca may be applied to inter alia the estimation of scores on the sustainability criterion and to the integrated evaluation of scores on the three key criteria

urban concentration and agglomeration economies re examining the relationship using a sample of 49 countries and two stage least squares estimators the effects of urban concentration on economic growth are examined evidence is provided that external agglomeration economies in the largest cities have been exhausted although the process of concentration continues to have a positive impact on output this effect however is attributed to internal adjustments caused by concentration in factor intensity and marginal factor productivity in the production activities of urban areas the results suggest that a meaningful policy aiming to alleviate the social costs of concentration in over populated metropolises without reducing the overall efficiency of the economy should follow a long term strategy of developing smaller cities in the periphery and favouring the operation of smaller scale less capital intensive enterprises in the economy

the effect of new type urbanization on energy consumption in china a spatial econometric analysis abstract china s urbanization is rapidly proceeding while bringing marked impact on the energy consumption this paper contributes to current literature by using an improved spatial econometric model stochastic impacts by regression on population affluence and technology stirpat to investigate the effect of urbanization on energy consumption for china s regions the impact of urbanization is further disaggregated into direct and indirect impacts from the perspective of spatial econometrics results show that if the urbanization level increases by 1 0 energy consumption levels will correspondingly decrease by 0 089 the spatial spillover effect on adjacent areas is positive a 1 0 increase in one specific area s urbanization level leads to a 0 136 increase in an adjacent area s energy consumption it is suggested that it is essential to devote major efforts to energy conservation in the process of improving the new type urbanization in particular disaggregating china s targets for controlling energy consumption into smaller targets for different regions will contribute to controlling the growth of energy consumption

how does energy consumption affect china s urbanization new evidence from dynamic threshold panel models abstract energy consumption may play different roles at different stages of urbanization and economic growth given china s rapid economic development and urbanization process this study tries to explore the possible nonlinear relationship between energy consumption and urbanization in china against the background of promoting new type urbanization the level of china s urbanization is evaluated comprehensively using the entropy method a newly developed dynamic threshold panel model is employed to examine the nexus of energy consumption and comprehensive urbanization with full consideration of heterogeneous characteristics the panel data vector autoregression or pvar model is also used to estimate the direct effects of various energy consumption patterns on the urbanization the empirical results indicate that the nexus of energy consumption and urbanization is indeed nonlinear and that energy consumption is conducive to promote china s urbanization at the current stage of development however the positive effect decreases when there is an increase in energy consumption intensity and energy consumption scale whereas the effect increases with the promotion of energy consumption structure

economy wide estimates of the implications of climate change sea level rise the economy wide implications of sea level rise in 2050 are estimated using a static computable general equilibrium model this allows for a better estimate of the welfare effects of sea level rise than the common direct cost estimates and for an estimate of the impact of sea level rise on greenhouse gas emissions overall general equilibrium effects increase the welfare costs of sea level rise but not necessarily in every sector or region in the absence of coastal protection economies that rely most on agriculture are hit hardest although energy is substituted for land overall energy consumption falls with the shrinking economy hurting energy exporters with full coastal protection gdp increases particularly in regions with substantial dike building but utility falls least in regions that protect their coasts and export energy energy prices rise and energy consumption falls the costs of full protection exceed the costs of losing land the results also show direct costs the usual method for estimating welfare changes due to sea level rise are a bad approximation of the general equilibrium welfare effects previous estimates of the economic impact of sea level rise are therefore biased

the implications of the historical decline in us energy intensity for long run co2 emission projections this paper analyzes the influence of the long run decline in us energy intensity on projections of energy use and carbon emissions to the year 2050 we build on our own recent work which decomposes changes in the aggregate us energy gdp ratio into shifts in sectoral composition structural change and adjustments in the energy demand of individual industries intensity change and identifies the impact on the latter of price induced substitution of variable inputs shifts in the composition of capital and embodied and disembodied technical progress we employ a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium cge model of the us economy to analyze the implications of these findings for future energy use and carbon emissions comparison of the simulation results against projections of historical trends in gdp energy use and emissions reveals that the range of values for the rate of autonomous energy efficiency improvement aeei conventionally used in cge models is consistent with the effects of structural changes at the sub sector level rather than disembodied technological change even so our results suggest that us emissions may well grow faster in the future than in the recent past

differences in managerial values a study of u s hong kong and prc managers in this study of convergence divergence of managerial values four western developed measures machiavellianism locus of control intolerance of ambiguity and dogmatism and the four dimensions of the eastern developed chinese value survey confucian dynamism human heartedness integration and moral discipline were the measures used the findings indicate that often times both culture and the business environment interact to create a unique set of managerial values in a country

a general equilibrium analysis of climate change impacts on tourism this paper studies the economic implications of climate change induced variations in tourism demand using a world cge model the model is first re calibrated at some future years obtaining hypothetical benchmark equilibria which are subsequently perturbed by shocks simulating the effects of climate change we portray the impact of climate change on tourism by means of two sets of shocks occurring simultaneously the first set of shocks translate predicted variations in tourist flows into changes of consumption preferences for domestically produced goods the second set reallocate income across world regions simulating the effect of higher or lower tourists expenditure our analysis highlights that variations in tourist flows will affect regional economies in a way that is directly related to the sign and magnitude of flow variations at a global scale climate change will ultimately lead to a welfare loss unevenly spread across regions 2005 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

assessing the employment impacts of environmental and natural resource policy this paper provides an introductory guide for environmental andresource economists to methods of assessing the impact of environmentaland natural resource policy on employment it examines five basicapproaches to evaluating the effect of a policy action on employment 1 supply and demand analysis of the affected sector 2 partialequilibrium analysis of multiple markets 3 fixed price generalequilibrium simulations input output i o and social accounting matrix sam multiplier models 4 non linear general equilibriumsimulations computable general equilibrium cge models and 5 econometric estimation of the adjustment process particularly timeseries analysis the basic modeling structure and data requirementsfor each of these approaches are described simple examples of theirapplication to evaluation of environmental and natural resourcepolicy are developed and the relative merits and applicability of each are discussed

environmental valuation under sustainable development environmentalism has evolved since the 1960 s from a concern with the preservation of wilderness in the american experience to a concern over pollution of human habitat throughout the industrialized world northern anxiety spread to the loss of tropical rainforests and biodiversity in the south where environmentalism evolved further in an encounter with indigenous interpretations conditions and priorities by the late 1980 s climate change emerged as a central issue in a now global discourse on the relationship between environment and development the principle of sustainable development that current needs are to be met as fully as possible while ensuring that the life opportunities of future generations are undiminished relative to present is now widely accepted this paper illustrates that incorporating environmental values per se in decision making will not bring about sustainability unless each generation is committed to transferring to the next sufficient natural resources and capital assets to make development sustainable 11 refs 3 figs

does urbanization lead to more direct and indirect household carbon dioxide emissions evidence from china during 1996 2012 china is experiencing a stage of rapid urban development the energy consumption and related carbon dioxide emissions of households continue to increase this paper calculates direct and indirect carbon dioxide emissions of households based on the input output method in china from 1996 to 2012 the results reveal that there were more total carbon dioxide emissions from urban households than from rural households far more indirect emissions from urban households than from rural households slightly more direct emissions from urban households than from rural households and differences in direct carbon dioxide emissions from various fuels and in indirect emissions from various sectors between urban and rural households to examine the causal relationship between urbanization and the carbon dioxide emissions of households cointegration and granger causality tests are applied a unidirectional causal relation was found running from urbanization to both direct and indirect household carbon dioxide emissions and the direct and indirect carbon dioxide emissions of households would increase 2 9 and 1 1 respectively for every increase of one percent in urbanization we discuss the reasons of why the development of urbanization will lead to more household direct and indirect carbon dioxide emissions and suggest certain policy implications for urbanization and carbon dioxide emissions based on the results of this study

residential electricity demand dynamics in turkey abstract this article provides fresh empirical evidences for the income and price elasticies of the residential energy demand both in the short run and long run for turkey over the period 1968 2005 using the bounds testing procedure to cointegration the computed elasticities of income and price are consistent with the previous studies and as expected the long run elasticities are greater than the short run elasticities an augmented form of granger causality analysis is implemented among residential electricity income price and urbanization in the long run causality runs interactively through the error correction term from income price and urbanization to residential energy but the short run causality tests are inconclusive the parameter stability of the short run as well as long run coefficients in the residential energy demand function are tested the results of these tests display a stable pattern

evidence on the political economy of the urbanization process urbanization and economic development go hand in hand as a country moves from a rural agricultural base to an urban industrial base this paper argues that urbanization per se occurs in response to the basic sector shift out of agriculture and government policies such as price controls and trade protection of industry affect the process only indirectly through their effect on sector composition however urban concentration the extent to which a country s urban resources are concentrated in one or two large cities as opposed to more evenly spread is much more directly affected by policies and politics the paper finds specifically that investments in inter regional infrastructure facilitates urban deconcentration away from primate to hinterland cities as does increasing democratization or increasing fiscal decentralization the findings move beyond establishing basic correlations in the data to trying to quantify causal effects in a panel framework with instrumental variables estimation

impacts of urbanization on renewable energy consumption in china abstract in this paper we used the logarithmic mean divisia index method to investigate the impact of urbanization on renewable energy consumption growth recg the growth in renewable energy consumption is attributed to the urbanization effect energy mix effect energy intensity effect economic effect and population effect recg can be roughly divided into the slow growth stage the fluctuant growth stage and the accelerated growth stage the results showed that the energy mix effect economic effect and population effect positively affected recg however a significantly negative relationship was found between energy intensity and recg furthermore the contribution of urbanization differed in recg stages and urbanization contributed more to the total energy consumption growth than to recg this study would thus provide policymakers with insights about the link between urbanization and renewable energy consumption

broadband penetration and economic growth nexus evidence from cross country panel data this article investigates whether there are granger causal relationships between broadband penetration degree of urbanization foreign direct investment and economic growth using a panel data set covering the g 20 countries for the period 1998 2011 using our multivariate framework we first find that all of the variables are cointegrated our findings further reveal a network of causal connections between the variables including short run bidirectional causality between broadband penetration and economic growth among the more developed countries within the g 20 on the other hand for the developing countries within the g 20 there is evidence of unidirectional causality from economic growth to broadband penetration

economy wide estimates of the implications of climate change human health we study the economic impacts of climate change induced change in human health viz cardiovascular and respiratory disorders diarrhoea malaria dengue fever and schistosomiasis changes in morbidity and mortality are interpreted as changes in labour productivity and demand for health care and used to shock the gtap e computable general equilibrium model calibrated for the year 2050 gdp welfare and investment fall rise in regions with net negative positive health impacts prices production and terms of trade show a mixed pattern direct cost estimates common in climate change impact studies underestimate the true welfare losses

a theory of urban growth in an economy experiencing endogenous economic growth and exogenous population growth we explore two main themes how urbanization affects efficiency of the growth process and how growth affects patterns of urbanization localized information spillovers promote agglomeration and human capital accumulation fosters endogenous growth individual city sizes grow with local human capital accumulation and knowledge spillovers and city numbers generally increase which we demonstrate is consistent with empirical evidence we analyze whether local governments can successfully internalize local dynamic externalities in addition we explore how growth involves real income differences across city types and how urbanization can foster income inequality most nonagricultural production in developed countries occurs in metropolitan areas the underlying reasons why economic activity agglomerates into cities localized information and knowledge spillover also make cities the engines of economic growth in an we gratefully acknowledge support of the national science foundation grants sbr 9422440 and sbr9730142 for this research the work has benefited from conversations with harl ryder on the dynamics of the model and from comments by gilles duranton and participants in seminars at brown colorado and texas austin and a presentation at an isit seminar sponsored by the centre for economic policy research and the national bureau of economic research

analysing mexican population concentration a model with empirical evidence in this study we analyse the economic determinants of population concentration in mexico estimating a time series cross sectional model for 1895 1990 in which the pareto coefficient is a measure of population concentration the fundamental lesson of this paper is that there is a clear and unequivocal u shaped pattern between population concentration and economic development this finding was not confirmed in cross national studies our results are consistent with central place theory and suggest that as development proceeds agglomeration benefits of large cities are exhausted and the optimum level of production is exceeded hence government policies aimed at encouraging decentralisation may not interfere with economic growth and efficiency our findings point to the significant non linear relationship between population concentration and a number of variables in the model including total population urbanisation ratio total land area population density and central government expenditure the signifi

spatial and temporal flows of china s forest resources development of a framework for evaluating resource efficiency abstract population growth and resource scarcity have remained major constraints on china s development for several decades under conditions of resource limitations utilization efficiency is a key concern for chinese scientists and decision makers based on forest production and trade data for china we present a conceptual framework for resource flow analysis calculate the quantities and analyze the characteristics of flows of forest resources primarily wood and wood byproducts during the critical early economic development of china from 1953 to 2000 by converting the forest resource flows into log equivalents i e the quantity of logs required to generate a unit of each type of product the consumption of forest resources has accelerated throughout the study period and the structure and efficiency of forest resource utilization have both improved the proportion of forest resource flows obtained from outside china has increased and most of this wood was consumed by wood processing industries over time consumption has shifted from logs and lumber to the pulp and paper and artificial board industries to improve the economics and sustainability of its use of forest resources china should increase consumption of forest resources by its pulp and paper industry more fully utilize forest resources obtained from outside china and weaken the dependence on these foreign forest resources by promoting increased utilization efficiency and structural readjustment of the forest industry therefore improved forest management is an effective mean of weakening the dependence on foreign forest resources

an analysis of the implications of china s urbanization policy for economic growth and energy consumption abstract china intends to rely on urbanization policies to increase its economic growth even against the backdrop of new constraints on energy consumption this paper investigates the impact of urbanization on economic growth and energy consumption using data from china s 266 prefecture level cities over the 2000 2010 period and examines the heterogeneity of this impact across income and urbanization groups the main results of our empirical estimation indicate that 1 the effect of urbanization on economic growth is positive and significant for the entire sample although it is positive and significant only for high and middle income groups and not the low income group 2 the impact of urbanization on energy consumption is positive and significant for all groups when the sample is divided into three urbanization groups based on the northam curve indicating that urbanization will lead to large increases in energy consumption in summary our empirical results show that urbanization targets will be difficult to achieve in terms of increasing gdp per capita under energy consumption constraints

energy consumption and economic growth evidence from the economic community of west african states ecowas access to modern energy is believed to be a prerequisite for sustainable development poverty alleviation and the achievement of the millennium development goals however theoretical models and empirical results offer conflicting evidence on the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth that we remain largely unsure of the cause and effect nature of this relationship if indeed a relationship exists at all this paper tests in a panel context the long run relationship between energy access and economic growth for fifteen african countries from 1980 to 2008 by using recently developed panel cointegration techniques we adopt a three stage approach consisting of panel unit root panel cointegration and granger causality tests to study the dynamic causal relationships between energy consumption energy prices and growth as well as relationship between electricity consumption prices and growth results show that gdp and energy consumption as well as gdp and electricity move together in the long run by estimating these long run relationships and testing for causality using panel based error correction models we found unidirectional long run and short run causality the causality is running from gdp to energy consumption in the short run and from energy consumption to gdp in the long run there is also evidence of unidirectional causality running from electricity consumption to gdp in the long run this study thus provides empirical evidence of long run and causal relationships between energy consumption and economic growth for our sample of fifteen countries suggesting that lack or limited access to modern energy services could hamper economic growth and compromise the development prospects of these countries

who will meet china s import demand for forest products summary via computable general equilibrium modeling we find that as a result of economic growth yuan appreciation and logging restrictions in china china s imports and exports of forest products would dramatically increase and china s imports would have displacement effects as timber exporting countries would increase their exports to china while reducing their shipments to other countries such displacement effects would make pressure on forests in supplying countries less than they otherwise might be global economic growth is a dominant driving force for china s imports russia southeast asia and africa would remain major foreign suppliers of logs to china while supply sources for chinese imported lumber and paper products would be relatively diverse

education and economic growth a meta regression analysis summary this paper surveys the literature which examines the effect of education on economic growth specifically we apply meta regression analysis to 57 studies with 989 estimates and show that there is substantial publication selection bias toward a positive impact of education on growth once we account for this the genuine growth effect of education is not homogeneous across studies but varies according to several factors specifically it is attributed to differences in education measurement and study characteristics mainly model specification as well as type of data used and the quality of research outlets where studies are published e g academic journals vs working papers

energy consumption and economic growth evidence from the commonwealth of independent states abstract this study examines the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for eleven countries of the commonwealth of independent states over the period 1991 2005 within a multivariate panel data framework based on pedroni 1999 pedroni 2004 heterogeneous panel cointegration test and corresponding error correction model cointegration is present between real gdp energy consumption real gross fixed capital formation and labor force with the respective coefficients positive and statistically significant the results of the error correction model reveal the presence of unidirectional causality from energy consumption to economic growth in the short run while bidirectional causality between energy consumption and economic growth in the long run thus the results lend support for the feedback hypothesis associated with the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth

macroanalysis of the economic and environmental impacts of a 2005 2025 european union bioenergy policy using the gtap model and life cycle assessment abstract this paper describes a new tool to assess the medium and long term economic and environmental impacts of large scale policies the approach macro life cycle assessment m lca is based on life cycle assessment methodology and includes additional elements to model economic externalities and the temporal evolution of background parameters the general equilibrium model gtap was therefore used to simulate the economic consequences of policies in a dynamic framework representing the temporal evolution of macroeconomic and technological parameters environmental impacts expressed via four indicators human health ecosystems global warming and natural resources are computed according to policy life cycle and its indirect economic consequences in order to illustrate the approach two 2005 2025 european union eu energy policies were compared using m lca the first policy the bioenergy policy aims to significantly increase energy generation from biomass and reduce eu energy demand for coal the second policy the baseline policy is a business as usual policy where year 2000 energy policies are extended to 2025 results show that compared to the baseline policy the bioenergy policy generates fewer impacts on three of the four environmental indicators human health global warming and natural resources at the world and eu scales though the results may differ significantly at a regional level the results also highlight the key contribution of economic growth to the total environmental impacts computed for the 2005 2025 period a comparison of the results with a more conventional consequential lca approach illustrates the benefits of m lca when modeling the indirect environmental impacts of large scale policies the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis indicates that the method is quite robust however its robustness must still be evaluated based on the sensitivity and uncertainty of additional parameters including the evolution of economic growth

validating energy oriented cge models although cge models have received heavy usage they are often criticized as being insufficiently validated key parameters are often not econometrically estimated and the performance of the model as a whole is rarely checked against historical outcomes as a consequence questions frequently arise as to how much faith one can put in cge results in this paper we employ a novel approach to the validation of a widely utilized global cge model gtap e by comparing the variance of model generated petroleum price distributions driven by historical demand and supply shocks to the model with observed five year moving average price distributions we conclude that energy demand in gtap e is far too price elastic over this time frame after incorporating the latest econometric estimates of energy demand and supply elasticities we revisit the validation question and find the model to perform more satisfactorily as a further check we compare a deterministic global general equilibrium simulation based on historical realizations over the 2001 2006 period during which petroleum prices rose sharply along with growing global energy demands as anticipated by the stochastic simulations the revised model parameters perform much better than the original gtap e parameters in this global general equilibrium context

tourism development energy consumption and environmental kuznets curve trivariate analysis in the panel of developed and developing countries abstract the study investigates the relationship between economic growth carbon dioxide emissions tourism development energy demand domestic investment and health expenditures with an aim to test the validity of the environmental kuznets curve ekc hypothesis in the panel of three diversified world s region including east asia pacific european union and high income oecd and non oecd countries the study covers the period of last nine years i e 2005 2013 the study used the principal component analysis pca to construct tourism development index which is the amalgamation of number of tourists arrivals tourism receipts and international tourism expenditures the results validate the inverted u shaped relationship between carbon emissions and per capita income in the region the results further substantiate the following causal relationships i e i tourism induced carbon emissions ii energy induced emissions iii investment induced emissions iv growth led tourism v investment led tourism and vi health led tourism development in the region

using cheap talk as a test of validity in choice experiments abstract in two experiments on the choice of consumer goods the estimated marginal willingness to pay for food is found to be lower in the survey version with cheap talk our test can be seen as a test of hypothetical bias this implies that we cannot reject the hypothesis of a hypothetical bias for marginal wtp in choice experiments

what do customers want from improved residential electricity services evidence from a choice experiment abstract improvements in customer satisfaction as well as product service quality represent a common objective of all businesses and electricity services are no exception using choice experiments and a mixed logit model this study quantitatively analyzes customers preferences and their marginal willingness to pay for improved residential electricity services the study provides an ex ante evaluation of customers acceptance of hypothetical electricity services according to the results customers consider the electricity bill and the electricity mix as the two most important attributes when choosing their electricity services customers are willing to pay 2 2 more in the average electricity bill an additional monthly electricity bill of krw 1 064 usd 0 96 for a significant increase in the share of renewable energy which is far less than the actual cost of achieving this renewable target therefore it is better to maintain the current electricity mix in principle and the renewable share should be gradually expanded instead of making a sudden change in the electricity mix in addition customers are willing to pay krw 6 793 usd 6 15 more to reduce blackouts once in a year and krw 64 year usd 0 06 year to reduce a minute of each blackout

sustainable development of forest resources in industrialized countries abstract there is no general consensus about what sustainable development means we seek to clarify the meaning and utility of the concept by focusing on forest resources in countries possessing higher levels of per capita incomes the meaning of sustainable development becomes complex when one asks what social goals are being pursued what types of stability are permitted whether amenities and commodities should receive equal consideration and to what landbase the concept should be applied a simulation linear programming model of california s private forest resource is used to demonstrate that strict decade to decade even flow stability of production may result in lower aggregate levels of output over a prolonged planning period with ending levels of the stock resource that are scarcely greater than when output is permitted to vary over the planning period the model was also used to show that greater levels of output and ending stocks are possible when the land base for sustainability assessment is not a restrictively small geographical area or a single class of ownership in the case of national forests and other public lands the application of the sustainable development concept is significantly more complex because of the importance of amenity values and because of the inherent conflict between development and the preservation of ecosystems in a pristine state

total factor productivity growth in agriculture a malmquist index analysis of 93 countries 1980 2000 in this paper we examine levels and trends in agricultural output and productivity in 93 developed and developing countries that account for a major portion of the world population and agricultural output we make use of data drawn from the food and agriculture organization of the united nations and our study covers the period 1980 2000 due to the non availability of reliable input price data the study uses data envelopment analysis dea to derive malmquist productivity indexes the study examines trends in agricultural productivity over the period issues of catch up and convergence or in some cases possible divergence in productivity in agriculture are examined within a global framework the paper also derives the shadow prices and value shares that are implicit in the dea based malmquist productivity indices and examines the plausibility of their levels and trends over the study period

natural resources education and economic development economic growth since 1965 has varied inversely with the share of natural capital in national wealth across countries four main channels of transmission from abundant natural resources to stunted economic development are discussed a the dutch disease b rent seeking c overconfidence and d neglect of education public expenditure on education relative to national income expected years of schooling for girls and gross secondary school enrolment are all shown to be inversely related to the share of natural capital in national wealth across countries natural capital appears to crowd out human capital thereby slowing down the pace of economic development

zipf s law for cities an explanation zipf s law is a very tight constraint on the class of admissible models of local growth it says that for most countries the size distribution of cities strikingly fits a power law the number of cities with populations greater than s is proportional to 1 s suppose that at least in the upper tail all cities follow some proportional growth process this appears to be verified empirically this automatically leads their distribution to converge to zipf s law

spatial concentration location and competitiveness the case of switzerland maggi r and haeni p k 1986 spatial concentration location and competitiveness the case of switzerland ireg studies 20 141 149 this paper considers the relation between location and competitiveness of thirty nine swiss export industries using a factor endowment approach we found that spatial concentration in intermediate areas is important for performance and conclude that spatial proximity offers a significant comparative advantage for swiss industries further findings in the case of switzerland are that scale economies are unimportant and that high technical skill constitutes a comparative advantage while manual skill does not the chosen approach proves to be useful but additional information might be found by analysing companies rather than industries

resource abundance and economic growth in the united states abstract it is a common assumption that regions within the same country converge to approximately the same steady state income levels the so called absolute convergence hypothesis focuses on initial income levels to account for the variability in income growth among regions empirical data seem to support the absolute convergence hypothesis for us states but the data also show that natural resource abundance is a significant negative determinant of growth we find that natural resource abundance decreases investment schooling openness and r d expenditure and increases corruption and we show that these effects can fully explain the negative effect of natural resource abundance on growth

urbanization and economic development a bias toward large cities abstract we find that a nation s urban population percentage increases with gdp per capita industrialization export orientation and possibly foreign assistance it decreases with the importance of agriculture industrialization and agricultural importance have the same implications for the concentration of urban population in cities with 100 000 population as for the urban percentage greater export orientation reduces such concentration finally gdp per capita population and export orientation reduce primacy political factors such as whether a country s largest city is also its capital affect primacy our results do not seem to imply that developing country urbanization today differs fundamentally from urbanization in the past

implications of a long term increase in oil prices for tourism it is expected that global oil prices will increase in the future assessing the overall economic impacts on tourism is difficult as oil price rises will be concomitant with global changes in other commodity prices exchange rates and incomes a general equilibrium perspective is therefore presented in this paper the model couples a global general equilibrium model with a purpose built cge model of new zealand which focuses on describing tourism supply and demand in some detail the results indicate a decrease in real gross national disposable income of 1 7 for a doubling of oil price and a 9 reduction in the real value of tourism exports as a result of segment specific price increases and differing income and exchange rate effects and elasticities the reduction in demand for tourism in new zealand by 18 segments differs substantially the greatest reduction in demand is observed for tourists from the united kingdom

possibilities and challenges of china s forestry biomass resource utilization abstract forestry biomass resource has many advantages which makes it a significant new energy to substitute fossil energy as an important role of biomass resources for the utilization of china s forestry biomass resources this paper analyzed the possibilities of its development from the aspect of policy resource endowment market and technology and discussed its development challenges from the aspect of policy economy society technology and resource endowment forestry biomass resources are very abundant in china it has made a significant breakthrough in forest biomass resource utilization with great prospects although there are still some difficulties and challenges in the policy resource endowment and other aspects these challenges are not insurmountable therefore forestry biomass resources should develop in a way with chinese characteristics considering the national condition

the economic effects of climate change greenhouse gas emissions are fundamental both to the world s energy system and to its food production the production of co2 the predominant gas implicated in climate change is intrinsic to fossil fuel combustion specifically thermal energy is generated by breaking the chemical bonds in the carbohydrates oil coal and natural gas and oxidizing the components to co2 and h2o one cannot have cheap energy without carbon dioxide emissions similarly methane ch4 emissions an important greenhouse gas in its own right are necessary to prevent the build up of hydrogen in anaerobic digestion and decomposition one cannot have beef mutton dairy or rice without methane emissions climate change is the mother of all externalities larger more complex and more uncertain than any other environmental problem the sources of greenhouse gas emissions are more diffuse than any other environmental problem every company every farm every household emits some greenhouse gases the effects are similarly pervasive weather affects agriculture energy use health and many aspects of nature which in turn affects everything and everyone the causes and consequences of climate change are very diverse and those in low income countries who contribute least to climate change are most vulnerable to its effects climate change is also a long term problem some greenhouse gases have an atmospheric life time measured in tens of thousands of years the quantities of emissions involved are enormous in 2000 carbon dioxide emissions alone and excluding land use change were 24 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide tco2

consequential life cycle assessment of bioenergy systems a literature review abstract policies and business decisions intended to promote the use of bioenergy should be based on accurate estimates of the sustainability impacts of various alternatives including indirect consequences of any change consequential life cycle assessment clca attempts to include such impacts in the analysis this paper reviews studies that have adopted a clca approach to analysing the use of bioenergy describing their main topics approaches empirical and methodological aspects and scenarios the review finds that the production of studies proceeded at a modest pace from 2007 with a significant increase occurring from 2015 onward the most studied impact is global warming potential gwp although other impacts are frequently taken into consideration a majority of the studies concern the agricultural followed by the forest sector the literature has a european emphasis and relatively few studies have focused on low and middle income countries the review also finds a diversity in terms of how empirical and methodological aspects are taken into consideration based on the findings of the review areas of improvement for future research are suggested an increased focus on bioenergy use in the household sectors more studies in under researched regions more precise explanations of the clca methods used a critical examination of the scenarios and methodological collaboration with economic bio sector modelling in addition the factors that affect the generalizability of the results can be discussed in a more systematic manner frameworks and procedures for improving the applicability and validity of clca will likely emerge as the research field develops

sustainable and integrated bioenergy assessment for latin america caribbean and africa sibyl lacaf the path from feasibility to acceptability abstract uncertainties in evaluating bioenergy projects have lead policymakers to adopt a restrictive approach or even refuse to evaluate projects when the available information is limited or a clear perception of its benefits and impact is lacking indeed despite its potential advantages a bioenergy system poses several conceptual and operational challenges for academic as well as practical scrutiny because the inherent relationship and the intersection of areas related to energy production and agricultural activity requires a deeply integrated assessment the aim of this paper is to review the available works in this field and propose an approach for supporting policymakers in the taking decision process of deploying sustainable bioenergy systems the sibyl lacaf framework provides a comprehensive framework for addressing the inherent complexity of the subject and its sustainability and acceptability as part of the evaluation process with this approach different and complementary evaluation methods are reviewed and set in a logical and sequential structure to draw a group of indicators used for assessing a given project with the help of a strengths weaknesses opportunities and threats swot matrix when acceptability is identified as an issue a public consultation and communication pc c scheme can complement this process the suggested application for mozambique indicate that an acceptable outcome is possible even when considering the data requirements and constraints of developing countries thus the potential of this integrated approach outweighs such limitations

the zipf s law and the effects of free trade the case of guatemala abstract the aim of this study is to investigate the impacts of trade policy changes on the order of the size of cities and economic growth of guatemala between 1921 and 2002 the pareto coefficient was estimated and an index was used to measure the degree of urban concentration finally a model of the impact of trade liberalization on economic growth was estimated the main results obtained showed a slight growth in inequality and divergence although the urban concentration index showed a gradual decline since 1964 the golden age of the cacm by the year 2002 it was found that the urban concentration has an inverse relationship with the commercial opening and positive economic growth during the period from 1921 to 1964 it was concluded that major cities reduced their growth and that small and medium sized cities grew at a faster rate than big cities driven by the growth of international trade

economic growth urbanization and energy consumption a provincial level analysis of china abstract as the largest developing country with fast paced economic growth china s development has been characterized by a high degree of energy consumption high level of heavy industry international trade and urbanization progress in this study we extend the current literature by incorporating urbanization energy consumption and international trade into a production function using a panel data set model over the period from 2001 to 2012 the results show that urbanization and capital are the major contributors to china s economic growth meanwhile there exists a u shaped relationship between urbanization and economic growth that heavy industry exerts a significant negative effect on economic growth using system generalized methods of moments gmm sys estimation methods and the relationship between international trade and economic growth is mixed and no consistent results support the conclusion that the international trade promotes economic growth adjusting the industry and trade structure in economic growth is the priority for the policy makers

are fluctuations in energy consumption per capita transitory evidence from a panel of pacific island countries this study applies the panel stationarity test developed by carrion i silvestre et al 2005 breaking the panels an application to gdp per capita econometrics journal 8 159 175 to examine the stationarity of energy consumption per capita for a panel of 13 pacific island countries over the period 1980 2005 this test has the advantage that it allows for multiple structural breaks at unknown dates that can differ across countries and can account for all forms of cross sectional correlation between countries the conclusion from the study is that energy consumption per capita in approximately 60 of countries is stationary and that energy consumption per capita for the panel as a whole is stationary the study offers several suggestions for modelling energy consumption and policy making in the pacific islands

water scarcity and the impact of improved irrigation management a computable general equilibrium analysis increasing water scarcity combined with an increasing demand for food and water for irrigation call for a careful revision of water use in agriculture currently less than 60 of all the water used for irrigation is effectively used by crops based on the new version of the gtap w model we analyze the effect of potential water savings and the welfare implications of improvements in irrigation efficiency worldwide the results show that a water policy directed to improve irrigation efficiency led to global and regional water savings but it is not beneficial for all regions the final effect on regional welfare will depend on the interaction of several different causes for instance higher irrigation efficiency changes opportunity costs and reverses comparative advantages modifying regional trade patterns and welfare for water stressed regions the effects on welfare are mostly positive for nonwater scarce regions the results are more mixed and mostly negative the results show that exports of virtual water are not exclusive of water abundant regions

positive and negative feedback in consequential life cycle assessment abstract in this paper we develop a typology of consequences that can be used for environmental assessments of investment in technologies as an illustration we estimate how the inclusion of different cause effect chains could affect the estimated greenhouse gas emissions resulting from buying and using a fuel cell bus today in contrast to earlier studies we include cause effect chains containing positive feedback from adoption e g economies of scale and learning we discuss how our findings affect the usefulness and limitations of consequential life cycle assessment lca and how lca methodology in more general can be used to support strategic technology choice a major conclusion is that environmental assessments of investment in emerging technologies should not only include effects resulting from marginal change of the current system but also marginal contributions to radical system change

a note on the size distribution of cities over time abstract the pareto law of income distribution is applied to the analysis of city size structures particular concern is focused on the pareto coefficient as a measure of interurban concentration and on how this varies through time within a nation on the basis of evidence from 12 nations it is argued that over time a nation tends to display a u shaped pattern in the degree of interurban concentration and that the higher a nation s overall level of development the more advanced it will be in the sequence of concentration consideration is given to the possibility of supporting these conclusions through cross sectional analysis among nations the various bases for the proposed temporal pattern of concentration within a nation are then explored

uncertainty management in a macro life cycle assessment of a 2005 2025 european bioenergy policy this paper examines the uncertainty of a new method the macro life cycle assessment to analyze the environmental impacts of public policies the environmental impacts of two 2005 2025 european energy policies a business as usual policy and a bioenergy policy were comparatively assessed and their uncertainty was computed following the inventory of each source of uncertainty uncertainty management methods were sequentially applied to manage these sources whenever possible results show that the bioenergy policy causes lower environmental impacts in three of the four environmental damage categories human health climate change and natural resources but more significantly in one ecosystems the risk of the business as usual policy causing lower environmental impacts is expected to be low however current knowledge makes it impossible to account for all sources of uncertainty or implement advanced uncertainty methods for all elements in the cause effects chains involved in each european energy policy current uncertainty management methods are not adapted to the uncertainty of large models such as the macro life cycle assessment hence while current results are promising further work is required to improve uncertainty management in macro life cycle assessment

urbanization in a developing country city size and population composition abstract in developing countries typically there is a very high correlation between city size and educational attainment of the local population which is less pronounced or even absent in developed countries such as canada the u s a or the u k two explanations are examined first the types of goods produced in larger cities require relatively high skill labor inputs second public and perhaps private services demanded by higher skill people are only offered in larger cities the paper econometrically tests these hypotheses for brazil estimating the elasticities of substitution or typically complementarity between high and low skill labor and the bright lights effect for high versus low skill labor

modelling approaches for consequential life cycle assessment c lca of bioenergy critical review and proposed framework for biogas production abstract conventional life cycle inventories lcis are static models not considering any mechanism of revenue maximisation and price equilibrium under external constraints an additional demand of a given commodity irrespective of the amount can always be supplied by the average supplier under fully elastic market assumption this constitutes a recognised limitation for the application of lca to the assessment of the environmental consequences of changes applied to complex systems like agro systems in the so called consequential lci c lci the relationships between the activities and processes of a life cycle are no longer seen as essentially technical connections based on average data instead the determining socio economic mechanisms are considered via market information and eventually economic models partial or computable general equilibrium the practical implementation of c lci is however still obscure to many practitioners and the complementarities and overlaps between the different c lci modelling approaches have not been completely clarified so far this paper aims at filling this gap the first part of the paper provides a survey of a number of applications using different equilibrium models afterwards we critically review the main variables and parameters supporting the definition and implementation of the c lci modelling approaches in the last part of the paper we propose a methodology to integrate economic modelling and lca in order to perform a c lca of biogas production specifically addressing the indirect land use change iluc issue finally we describe the application of this methodology to a case study dealing with the production of biogas in luxembourg

urban concentration agglomeration economies and the level of economic development there is a view among planners in the developing nations that the process of economic development invariably results in the concentration of population in one or two primal cities there is also however considerable disagreement over whether this apparent relationship is either necessary or desirable proponents on the one hand argue that concentrated urbanization strongly supports industrial development through the realization of scale and agglomeration economies 2 dissenters from this view feel that urban concentration creates serious social costs and results more from historical or political forces than economic ones in this case policies aimed at decentralizing growth can achieve social objectives without sacrificing economic efficiency despite these deliberations it is surprising that there has been little or no empirical study of urban concentration on either a longitudinal or cross national basis the major related work which exists is williamson s research on economic development and income inequality 3 williamson demonstrates that as economic growth begins inequality initially increases but then diminishes in the more advanced stages of development this coincides with hirschman s4 view that industrialization eventually spreads into more backward areas reduc

climate change and adaptation the case of nigerian agriculture the present research offers an economic assessment of climate change impacts on the four major crop families characterizing nigerian agriculture the evaluation is performed by shocking land productivity in a computable general equilibrium model tailored to replicate nigerian economic development up to 2050 the detail of land uses in the model has been increased by differentiating land types per agro ecological zones uncertainty about future climate is captured using as inputs yield changes computed by a crop model under ten general circulation models runs climate change turns out to be negative for nigeria in the medium term with production losses and increase in crop prices higher food dependency on foreign imports and gdp losses in all the simulations after 2025 in a second part of the paper a cost effectiveness analysis of adaptation in nigerian agriculture is conducted the adaptation practices considered are a mix of cheaper soft measures and more costly hard irrigation expansion the main result is that the cost effectiveness of the whole package depends crucially on the possibility of implementing adaptation by exploiting low cost opportunities which show a benefit cost ratio larger than one in all the climate regimes

urban growth and uninsured rural risk booming towns in bust times abstract rapid urbanization also happens when economic growth and urban job creation are absent such as in africa and latin america during the eighties why do some countries urbanize faster while having worse economic growth this paper finds that higher aggregate agricultural risk induces rural urban migration providing an additional channel to explain the urbanization trend uninsurable expected risk will lead to rural urban migration as a form of ex ante insurance if households are liquidity constrained and cannot overcome adverse shocks the effect is robust to controlling for the traditional view of urbanization driven by industrialization and to several alternative explanations such as government spending

a regional dynamic general equilibrium model of alternative climate change strategies outcomes and noncooperative equilibria this study finds that cooperative policies show much higher levels of emissions reductions than do noncooperative strategies that there are substantial differences in the levels of controls in both the cooperative and the noncooperative policies among different countries and that high income countries may be the major losers from cooperation jel h41 q4 q2 q20

corporate social responsibility in europe and the u s insights from businesses self presentations the paper compares the extent and content of businesses communications about corporate social responsibility csr in france the netherlands the u k and the u s in particular the study investigates the nature of csr principles processes and stakeholder issues discussed in web pages the results show that businesses in the four countries do not display the same eagerness to appear as socially responsible and employ diverse means to convey social responsibility images

the damage costs of climate change toward more comprehensive calculations it is argued that estimating the damage costs of a certain benchmark climate change is not sufficient what is needed are cost functions and confidence intervals although these are contained in the integrated models and their technical manuals this paper brings them into the open in order to stimulate discussion after briefly reviewing the benchmark climate change damage costs region specific cost functions are presented which distinguish tangible from intangible losses and the losses due to a changing climate from those due to a changed climate furthermore cost functions are assumed to be quadratic as an approximation of the unknown but presumably convex functions results from the damage module of the integrated climate economy model fund are presented next uncertainties are incorporated and expected damages are calculated it is shown that because of convex loss functions and right skewed uncertain ties the risk premium is substantial calling for more action than analysis based on best guess estimates the final section explores some needs for further scientific research

factors determining energy consumption evidence from indonesia malaysia and thailand abstract the aim of this study is to verify empirically the impact of various factors on energy consumption in three asean countries namely indonesia malaysia and thailand over the period 1980 to 2012 after using sundry appropriate diagnostic tests for checking time series data the method of least square as an analytical technique is used for parameters estimation the findings validate that fdi inflows economic growth trade openness and human development index have positive and statistically significant impacts on energy consumption the other variable urbanization has positive and statistically significant impacts on energy consumption for thailand and indonesia only while the empirical results reveals that population growth rate has a positive and statistically significant relationship with energy consumption only in the case of malaysia so in the light of determinations of the study the policy implication is that energy policy needs to be orientated in favor of expanding the supply of energy to reach an enhanced degree of sustainable economic growth and development

the sectoral and regional economic consequences of climate change to 2060 this paper presents a new detailed global quantitative assessment of the economic consequences of climate change i e climate damages to 2060 the analysis is based on an assessment of a wide range of impacts changes in crop yields loss of land and capital due to sea level rise changes in fisheries catches capital damages from hurricanes labour productivity changes and changes in health care expenditures from diseases and heat stress changes in tourism flows and changes in energy demand for cooling and heating a multi region multi sector dynamic computable general equilibrium model is used to link different impacts until 2060 directly to specific drivers of economic growth including labour productivity capital stocks and land supply as well as assess the indirect effects these impacts have on the rest of the economy and on the economies of other countries it uses a novel production function approach to identify which aspects of economic activity are directly affected by climate change the model results show that damages are projected to rise twice as fast as global economic activity global annual gross domestic product losses are projected to be 1 0 3 3 by 2060 of the impacts that are modelled impacts on labour productivity and agriculture are projected to have the largest negative economic consequences damages from sea level rise grow most rapidly after the middle of the century damages to energy and tourism are very small from a global perspective as benefits in some regions balance damages in others climate induced damages from hurricanes may have significant effects on local communities but the macroeconomic consequences are projected to be very small net economic consequences are projected to be especially large in africa and asia where the regional economies are vulnerable to a range of different climate impacts for some countries in higher latitudes economic benefits can arise from gains in tourism energy and health the global assessment also shows that countries that are relatively less affected by climate change may reap trade gains

the damage costs of climate change towards a dynamic representation economic assessments of climate change impacts are commonly presented as the effect of a climate change associated with a doubling of the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide on the current economy this paper is an attempt to express impact as a function of both climate change and socio economic change with regard to climate change issues discussed are level versus rate of change speed of adaptation speed of restoration and value adjustment and symmetry with regard to socio economic change agriculture migration and the valuation of intangible losses are addressed uncertainty and higher order impacts are treated briefly it is qualitatively argued and quantitatively illustrated that these issues matter a great deal for the damage profile over the next century a damage model based on my best guesses is presented in the appendix

an explanatory model of city size distribution evidence from cross country data this paper utilises data from files of the world bank to investigate the relevancy of a wide set of variables in explaining systematic variations of city size distribution across countries the pareto exponent is employed as a measure of population concentration among cities of different sizes the empirical results allow us to confirm a number of hypotheses high degrees of economic development as measured by per capita gnp foster urban dispersal conversely high degrees of government involvement in the economy and prevalence of significant scale and agglomeration economies promote urban concentration like most other cross sectional studies this study does not provide support to a dominating view in the economic development literature that at low levels of development the relation between economic development and population concentration is negative while at high levels the relation reverses and becomes positive

how urbanization affects energy use in developing countries abstract this paper identifies mechanisms whereby urbanization affects energy consumption industrialization and urbanization accompany each other during economic development but urbanization exerts a number of independent influences on energy use it permits economies of scale in production but requires more transportation food must be transported to urbanized populations and relatively smaller agricultural populations must modernize entailing considerable increases in agricultural energy use in cities a number of production activities which were domestically provided in rural areas using human or animal energy shift to sources outside the household using modern energy sources the largest single source of change in energy use is personal transportation passenger transport in cities is heavily weighted towards fuel using modes particularly as incomes increase to assess the overall impact a regression analysis of 59 developing countries for 1980 is conducted holding constant per capita income and the extent of industrialization the elasticity of energy consumption per capita and per dollar of gdp is between 0 35 and 0 48

polarization reversal in the state of sao paulo brazil polarization reversal pr is the term given to the turning point in the spatial pattern of growth and development in a nation when continuing relative concentration ceases and urban deconcentration or spatial decentralization commences the focus of this paper is on those ldcs with fast growth rates of population which are reaching a transitional stage in their pattern of economic development as well as a change in direction of their spatial development the paper briefly discusses why a pr turning point may be anticipated as the economy of a nation grows and the urban system develops it then examines possible indices of pr and of alternative definitions arriving at a new and narrower definition of pr this definition and the earlier measures are then considered in the context of sao paulo which underwent increasing polarization of urban population from 1950 1970 but experienced a pr turning in the 1970s this may be the first documented example of pr in an ldc

assessing non marginal variations with consequential lca application to european energy sector many policies are being designed to mitigate impacts of human activities on the environment an environmental evaluation of these policies should include assessments of their impacts according to all known environmental impacts moreover because policies may indirectly affect regions or economic sectors not initially targeted by these policies indirect environmental consequences should be included in environmental balances life cycle analysis lca is a holistic method made to assess environmental impacts caused by products or services according to various environmental damage categories however the ability of lca to model environmental consequences due to a change is restricted to marginal changes occurring in small life cycles new methodological developments are needed to study major changes and their environmental consequences as they may happen when a policy is applied at large scale for that purpose the economic general equilibrium model gtap has been used to predict global economic perturbation that would be caused by two different european energy policies bioenergy policy and business as usual policy lca was then used to assess environmental impacts due to european energy generation and perturbation of world economy despite the bioenergy policy involves more energy from renewable technologies which are expected to be less polluting results show that due to rebound effects bioenergy policy results in more environmental impacts combining both gtap and lca improves environmental assessment made with gtap because it allows computing environmental impacts according to products life cycles instead of using economic sector emission factors and because emissions and extractions from environment are related to impacts on environment regarding lca method this new approach allows studying significant changes affecting large systems with a global modeling of economy in a time dependent environment however more work is needed to evaluate this new approach especially uncertainty should be studied

the corporate social performance financial performance link strategic managers are consistently faced with the decision of how to allocate scarce corporate resources in an environment that is placing more and more pressures on them recent scholarship in strategic management suggests that many of these pressures come directly from sources associated with social issues in management rather than traditional arenas of strategic management using a greatly improved source of data on corporate social performance this paper reports the results of a rigorous study of the empirical linkages between financial and social performance corporate social performance csp is found to be positively associated with prior financial performance supporting the theory that slack resource availability and csp are positively related csp is also found to be positively associated with future financial performance supporting the theory that good management and csp are positively related 1997 by john wiley sons ltd