forward foreign exchange rates and risk premia a reappraisal abstract analysis of the relationship between the forward exchange rate and actual exchange rate realizations has been interpreted by many researchers as evidence of the existence of time varying risk premia we interpret the negative covariation between the forward premium and the depreciation in the spot exchange rate as being consistent with an optimal least squares forecast of the future exchange rate based on two highly correlated forecasts the spot rate and the forward rate our results show that when the contemporaneous spot exchange rate is replaced by alternative filters the efficiency of the forward rate is not rejected although the empirical tests do not constitute unequivocal rejection of the hypothesis of time varying risk premia they do demonstrate that an alternative and economically plausible reason exists for previous results

a comparison of alternative covariance matrices for models with over lapping observations abstract this paper investigates the relative performance of alternative covariance matrices for models with over lapping observations commonly used in the finance literature the alternative covariance matrices used are those of hansen 1982 newey and west 1987 bartlett and quadratic spectral qs weights and andrews and monahan 1992 qs weights all matrices produce standard errors which are too small yielding empirical size probabilities above their corresponding theoretical values even in large samples empirical examples such as testing efficiency in the foreign exchange market and mean reversion in stock prices show that the choice of covariance matrix can affect the outcome of a hypothesis test

section 337 and the protection of intellectual property in the united states the complainants and the impact under section 337 of the tariff act of 1930 a firm can challenge imports that infringe its u s intellectual property rights such as patents copyrights and trademarks based on publicly available information this paper examines the characteristics of firms that file complaints under section 337 and also evaluates how firms are affected by the outcomes we find a complaining firm compared with peer firms in the same industry is typically larger produces a more diverse range of products has invested more in intangibles and is no less profitable a finding of no violation significantly depresses the filing firm s profits compared to peers section 337 appears to protect innovators but its effectiveness in promoting more innovation cannot be demonstrated so clearly copyright 1996 by mit press

the impact on economic performance of a transformation in workplace relations this study examines how a transformation in patterns of conflict and cooperation affected economic performance in 25 work areas of a large unionized manufacturing facility in the period 1984 87 unlike most studies of industrial relations and economic performance this study clearly distinguishes conflict from cooperation but evaluates the two together rather than focusing on only one an analysis of data collected from union and employer records and interviews strongly suggests that work areas with traditional labor management relations rooted in adversarial assumptions had higher costs more scrap lower productivity and a lower return to direct labor hours worked than work areas with transformational relations characterized by increased cooperation and improved dispute resolution

forecasting the exchange rate a monetary or random walk phenomenon abstract this paper evaluates the forecasting accuracy of monetary and random walk models of the exchange rate instrumental variable estimates of the simple monetary model are not supported by the data while the full information maximum liklihood estimates of its rational expectations counterpart are the rational expectations monetary model is operationalized using the results of hansen and sargent 1980 and flavin 1981 and box jenkins time series techniques monthly data on the us and uk economics over the recent flexible exchange rate period serve as the case study

short run forecasting of the euro dollar exchange rate with economic fundamentals abstract we propose a fundamentals based econometric model for the weekly changes in the euro dollar rate with the distinctive feature of mixing economic variables quoted at different frequencies the model obtains good in sample fit and more importantly encouraging out of sample forecasting results at horizons ranging from one week to one month specifically we obtain statistically significant improvements upon the hard to beat random walk model using traditional statistical measures of forecasting error at all horizons moreover our model obtains a great improvement when we use the direction of change metric which has more economic relevance than other loss measures with this measure our model performs much better at all forecasting horizons than a naive model that predicts the exchange rate as an equal chance to go up or down with statistically significant improvements

trader see trader do how do small fx traders react to large counterparties trades abstract we show that information about the counterparty of a trade affects the future trading decisions of individual traders the effect is such that traders tend to reverse their order flow in line with the better informed counterparties informed traders primarily incorporate their own private as well as publicly available information into prices whereas uninformed traders mainly magnify the effect of the informed this pattern of interaction among traders extends to different order types traders treat their own and others market orders as more informative than limit orders

global microstructures the virtual societies of financial markets using participant observation data interviews and trading transcripts drawn from interbank currency trading in global investment banks this article examines regular patterns of integration that characterize the global social system embedded in economic transactions to interpret these patterns which are global in scope but microsocial in character this article uses the term global microstructures features of the interaction order loosely defined have become constitutive of and implanted in processes that have global breadth this study draws on schutz in the development of the concept of temporal coordination as the basis for the level of intersubjectivity discerned in global markets this article contributes to economic sociology through the analysis of cambist i e trading markets which are distinguished from producer markets and by positing a form of market coordination that supplements relational or network forms of coordination

worker attitudes and the cost of production hypothesis tests in an equilibrium model worker attitudes and the cost of production hypothesis tests in an equilibrium model i introduction u s labor productivity growth resulting in a tripling of real gnp from the end of world war ii to 1973 began to slow down in the mid 1960s and continued to slow throughout the 1970s by the decade of the 1980s productivity growth as measured by the u s department of labor s office of productivity and technology had fallen from the 3 5 percent annual levels of the previous two decades to less than 1 percent per year a number of authors have tried to link worker morale and attitudes to labor productivity katz kochan and gobielle 1984 seek to attribute declines in labor efficiency as they measure it and product quality to deterioration in labor morale as measured by the frequency of grievances disciplinary actions absenteeism contract disputes and by the general climate of worker employer relations at the plant leve weisskopf bowles and gordon 1984 attribute the slowdown to a decline in effective labor input per hour of purchased labor they use a single equation macroeconomic model of aggregate production for the u s this paper introduces an index of worker attitude constructed from various indicators and estimates the effect of changes in this index on three measures of economic growth performance labor productivity multifactor productivity and the costs of production the study is based on the automobile industry in the united states the model includes all purchased inputs rather than the katz kochan and gobielle 1984 and weisskopf bowles and gordon 1984 approaches that studied labor productivity in isolation cost functions and input cost share equations are estimated simultaneously this procedure eliminates single equation sensitivity to small changes in specification and corrects for use of other inputs with labor a major contribution of this paper is the simultaneous estimation of the index of worker attitude and its effects on production the result is an index of worker attitude that is based on effective attitude measures as evidenced by slower productivity rather than a measure of worker attitudes taken from direct surveys of the workers such surveys may or may not measure an index of effective attitudes because the attitudes measured may not lead to slower production statistical results see norsworthy and zabala 1985a 1985b are very strong and consistent with the neoclassical theory of production and the attitude indicators are similar to those discussed in zabala 1983 the fact that these models perform in a similar fashion at different levels of aggregation is persuasive evidence major u s industries are performing better now than in recent times of economic recession but many are operating at lower levels of production and with substantially smaller labor forces than in recent periods of prosperity competition from western europe and japan is extremely strong in both foreign and domestic markets the results in this paper suggest strongly that u s industry could be made significantly more competitive by improved human resource management the following two hypotheses concerning attitudes on productivity and costs are tested first that worker attitudes have no effect on the cost of production second that the effects of worker attitude are factor neutral having no effect on the relative efficiencies of capital production worker labor nonproduction labor and materials each of these hypotheses is tested in the context of two translog cost function models with alternate factor share equations omitted finally the attitude indexes derived from the factor neutral and factor bias models are found to have similar properties and to be strongly correlated through time there are also plausible correlations with labor productivity total factor productivity and the total unit cost of production

the use of flow analysis in foreign exchange exploratory evidence abstract this paper provides questionnaire evidence on the role of flow analysis for professional traders and fund managers this evidence suggests that besides fundamental information and technical analysis the analysis of flows provides an independent third type of information for professionals the view that flows can be used to learn about fundamentals is not consistent with the data instead evidence indicates that flows more likely provide insight into semi fundamental private information

industrial relations performance economic performance and qwl programs an interplant analysis this study analyzes the relationship among plant level measures of industrial relations performance economic performance and quality of working life programs the analysis employs pooled time series and cross section data from 18 plants within a division of general motors for the years 1970 79 the empirical results show strong associations between industrial relations and economic performance measures and limited support for the hypothesis that quality of working life efforts improve both kinds of performance

long horizon mean reverting stock prices revisited this paper reexamines long horizon stock returns and finds that previous work overstates the evidence of mean reversion the overstatement is largely due to the implicit weighting of ordinary least squares tests which place more weight on the depression and world war ii observations which have both large error variances and stronger mean reverting tendencies additionally the reliance on asymptotic statistics and the improper focus on only the most negative estimates of mean reversion contribute to the overstatement using generalized least squares randomization tests on the 1926 to 1987 period the random walk cannot be rejected for value or equally weighted real returns at any of 10 return horizons or by joint tests over all 10 horizons simultaneously additionally the random walk cannot be rejected for the extended 1871 to 1987 period

the influence of fundamentals on exchange rates findings from analyses of news effects as we survey the literature of macroeconomic news in the foreign exchange market we can by now look back on nearly 30 years of research the first studies which analysed news effects on exchange rates were established in the early 1990s see for example dornbusch almost at the same time meese and rogoff published their influential paper revealing the forecasting inferiority in exchange rates of structural models against the random walk this finding has shocked the pillars of exchange rate economics and thus cast general suspicion on research focusing on fundamentals in this field the eventual rising popularity of event studies can partly be attributed to the re establishment of the raison d etre of exchange rate economics this work focuses on systematically surveying this literature with particular respect to its primary goal i e shedding light on the analytical value of fundamental research thus its major findings are first fundamental news does matter whereas non fundamental news matters to a lesser degree second news influences exchange rates via two separated channels i e incorporating common information into prices directly or indirectly based upon order flow third with a few exceptions the impact of fundamental news on exchange rates is fairly stable over time

real exchange rates and macroeconomics a selective survey the paper discusses real exchange rate issues of industrial and of developing countries for real exchange rates among the key industrial countries we ask what is the best conceptual framework to shed light on this question we look at alternative theoretical approaches and at empirical evidence on the relation among interest rates expectations and depreciation the discussion of developing countries real exchange rates focuses on the link between real exchange rates real wages and the profitability of capital the model highlights the discrepancy between the mobility of capital including in the long run physical capital and

the foreign exchange market a random walk with a dragging anchor this paper explores some anomalies in the foreign exchange market it is hard to find evidence of either short term overshooting or of longer term reversion to an equilibrium the forward exchange rate contains virtually no information on future spot rates discussions with practitioners indicate that longer term speculation based on fundamentals is strictly limited and survey data and other evidence suggest that expectations and speculation are based on a variety of models the interplay between speculation based on fundamentals and on a random walk or chartist approach influences the outcome this endorses the prior model of j a frankel and k a froot copyright 1988 by the london school of economics and political science

macroeconomic factors and antidumping filings evidence from four countries abstract this paper examines the relationship between antidumping filings and macroeconomic factors real exchange rate fluctuations affect the two criteria for dumping in opposite ways making the overall effect on filings ambiguous in theory examining the filing patterns of the four major users of ad law during the 1980 98 period we find that real exchange rates and domestic real gdp growth both have statistically significant impacts on filings bilateral filing data indicate that a one standard deviation real appreciation of the domestic currency increases filings by 33 we also find one standard deviation fall in domestic real gdp increases filings by 23

using survey data to test standard propositions regarding exchange rate expectations survey data provide a measure of exchange rate expectations superior to the forward rate in that no risk premium interferes we estimate extrapolative adaptive and regressive models of expectations static or random walk expectations and bandwagon expectations are rejected current appreciation generates the expectation of future depreciation because variables other than the contemporaneous spot rate receive weight in comparing expectations to the process governing the spot rate we find statistically significant bias no variable is as ubiquitous in international financial theory and yet as elusive empirically as investors expectations regarding exchange rates in the past expectations have been modeled in an ad hoc way often by using the forward exchange rate there is however a serious problem with using the forward discount as the measure of the expected change in the exchange rate in that the two may not be equal the gap that may separate the forward discount and expected depreciation is generally interpreted as a risk premium most of the large empirical literature testing the unbiasedness of the forward exchange rate for example has found it necessary either arbitrarily to assume away the existence of the risk premium if the aim

currency fluctuations in the post bretton woods era the international monetary landscape that has emerged since the felling of bretton woods is characterized by a hybrid exchange rate system that lies somewhere between the textbook polar cases of a gold standard and a pure float this system has relatively flexible exchange rates between major countries active central bank intervention in the market for the major currencies and predominantly fixed exchange rates relative to the dollar or to some basket of currencies for less developed countries and newly industrializing nations the majority of research on currency markets since the early 1970s has focused on the characteristics of flexible exchange rates under this hybrid regime my thesis is that this research has been unsuccessful the proportion of monthly or quarterly exchange rate changes that current models can explain is essentially zero even after the fact forecasts that use actual values instead of forecasted values of the explanatory variables cannot explain major currency movements over the post bretton woods era this result is quite surprising since exchange rate changes would be entirely unpredictable only in very special cases of the theoretical models discussed as the discussion below will argue it is not a general implication of market efficiency that exchange rates follow a random walk process 1

does the exchange rate follow a random walk a monte carlo study of four tests for a random walk abstract several authors have urged that real and nominal exchange rates follow a random walk conditions under which the exchange rate follows a random walk are reviewed in this paper many of these do not appear to hold therefore the empirical evidence presents a puzzle some evidence suggets the exchange rate follows a random walk while other evidence suggests the opposite should be true this paper attempts to reconcile the evidence it is argued that the tests for a random walk have low power monte carlo evidence on four tests for a random walk is presented that suppors this claim

does exchange rate pegging enhance credibility evidence from the european monetary system the european monetary system ems has been credited with immediately enhancing the credibility of onetary policy among its member countries however there is little empirical evidence to support this view this study provides evidence from exchange rate data that political actions taken to support the ems enhanced rate arangement further empirical results were sensitive to the specification of the estimating equations and varied dramatically if risk premia discounts were absent from estimating equations

import dynamics and demands for protection what kinds of changes in foreign competition lead domestic industries to seek import protection to address this question this paper uses detailed monthly u s import data to investigate changes in import composition during a 24 month window immediately preceding the filing of a petition for protection a decomposition methodology allows a comparison of imports from two groups of countries supplying the same product those that are named in the petition and those that are not the same decomposition can be applied to products quite similar to the imports in question but not subject to a petition the results suggest that industries typically seek protection when faced with a specific pattern of shocks first a persistent positive relative supply shock favors imports from named countries second a negative demand shock hits imports from all sources just prior to domestic industries petition for protection the relative supply shock is a broad one it applies both to named commodities and to the comparison product group the import demand shock by contrast is narrow hitting only named products the latter shock is also large import growth over the two year window is 15 percentage points lower in named products than in reference products with most of this gap arising in the final two quarters before the petition the negative import demand shock appears to be a key event in the run up to the filing of a petition it has been missed by previous studies using more aggregated data

effects of u s trade remedy law enforcement under uncertainty the case of steel this paper investigates the impact of u s trade remedy law enforcement on import penetration of foreign manufactured steel into the u s steel market given the quasi judicial process for implementation of the two provisions relevant to u s steel imports section 701 countervailing duty and section 731 antidumping duty i derive the probability augmented model to be used as the theoretical basis for the research the results obtained in this paper indicate that the trade remedy policy was effective however the elasticity measured degree of effectiveness was small

forecasting stock return variance toward an understanding of stochastic implied volatilities we examine the behavior of measured variances from the options market and the underlying stock market under the joint hypotheses that markets are informationally efficient and that option prices are explained by a particular asset pricing model forecasts from time series models of the stockreturn process should not have predictive content given the market forecast as embodied in option prices both in sample and out of sample tests suggest that this hypothesis can be rejected using simulations we show that biases inherent in the procedure we use to imply variances cannot explain this result thus we provide evidence inconsistent with the orthogonality restrictions of option pricing models that assume that variance risk is unpriced these results also have implicationsfor optimal variance forecast rules

macro economic determinants of antidumping a comparative analysis of developed and developing countries abstract this study examines how macro factors influence the use of antidumping in developed and developing countries a panel data analysis of 99 countries over 1980 2000 reinforces the view that the primary jurisdiction for the antidumping law is really more political than economic furthermore it suggests that once the wto is fully enforced the use of antidumping will spread among developing countries not only due to greater liberalization pressures but also as many countries would like to create an antidumping ability so as to counter its use against them this may reverse the trade gains that liberalization may ensure to them this paper thus calls for the granting of the special and differential treatment to developing countries in this provision finally based on its findings the paper argues that future negotiations should be directed toward revising safeguard rules and replacing antidumping by this new clause

sand in the wheels or spanner in the works the tobin tax and global finance this paper presents a radical critique of the tobin tax a tax on currency transactions by undercutting certain assumptions about the size and character of the world s foreign exchange markets which furnish the tax with its basic rationale while it is acknowledged that only a fraction of the massive volumes of fx transactions relate directly to trade in goods and services or to cross border investments it is denied that all the residual transactions are motivated purely by exchange rate considerations speculative or hedging activities rather the argument is that a significant proportion of fx trades have money market characteristics and that these trades together with domestic money market transactions play an important role in the day to day operation of the global financial system this perspective is used to show that the imposition of a tobin tax would cause extensive material damage to the system with consequences that may run counter to the expectations of supporters of the tax

expectations driven distortions in the foreign exchange market this paper explores the phenomenon of lasting deviations of the exchange rate from its fundamental value in the foreign exchange market motivated by empirical observations a chartists fundamentalists model is developed in which boundedly rational agents repeatedly choose between technical and fundamental trading rules to determine their speculative investment positions crucial for the dynamics is how the traders perceive the fundamental exchange rate this perception process is based on psychological evidence simulations give rise to bubbles but simultaneously display quite realistic exchange rate dynamics unit roots in the exchange rates fat tails for returns and volatility clustering

risk aversion foreign exchange speculation and gambler s ruin the apparent persistence of unexploited opportunities for expected profits in foreign exchange markets suggests highly risk averse market participants financial institutions put tight limits on the foreign exchange positions they may have at risk at any time despite beliefs that the odds are favourable that the positions will be profitable this safety first practice is consistent with keeping the probability of ruin low enough to be of no practical concern the setting of a very low probability of ruin for prudential reasons provides a rationale for traders behaving as if they have a degree of risk aversion that might otherwise seem implausibly high

cascading contingent protection abstract this paper extends the literature on the incentive effects of contingent protection by identifying and analyzing the vertical linkages that may exist across instances of contingent trade policy it is shown that the accessibility of contingent protection in a downstream industry may provide additional inducement for upstream suppliers of intermediate inputs to pursue contingent protection as well in general access to instruments of contingent protection at more than one stage of the production stream enhances the opportunity for components producers to engage in indirect rent seeking contingent protection may be pursued precisely because of the likelihood of downstream injury and cascading protection

learning to forecast the exchange rate two competing approaches this paper compares two competing approaches to model foreign exchange market participants behavior statistical learning and fitness learning these learning mechanisms are applied to a set of predictors chartist and fundamentalist rules we examine which of the learning approaches is best in terms of replicating the exchange rate dynamics within the framework of a standard asset pricing model we find that both learning methods reveal the fundamental value of the exchange rate in the equilibrium but only fitness learning creates the disconnection phenomenon and only statistical learning replicates volatility clustering none of the mechanisms is able to produce a unit root process but both of them generate non normally distributed returns

the use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market abstract technica or chartist analysis of financial markets involves providing forecasts or trading advice on the basis of largely visual inspection of past prices without regard to any underlying economic or fundamental analysis this paper reports the results of a questionnaire survey conducted on behalf of the bank of england among chief foreign exchange dealers based in london in november 1988 amongst other findings it is revealed that at least 90 per cent of respondents place some weight on this form of non fundamental analysis when forming views at one or more time horizons there is also a skew towards reliance on technical as opposed to fundamentalist analysis at shorter horizons which becomes steadily reversed as the length of horizon considered is increased a very high proportion of chief dealers view technical and fundamental analysis as complementary forms of analysis and a substantial proportion suggest that technical advice may be self fulfilling jel f31

patterns in exchange rate forecasts for twenty five currencies the properties of exchange rate forecasts are investigated with a data set encompassing a broad cross section of currencies over the entire sample expectations appear to be biased this result is robust to the possibility of random measurement error in the survey measures there appear to be statistically significant differences in the degree of bias in subgroupings of the data the bias is lower for the high inflation countries the bias is greater for the major currencies studied in earlier papers and the bias is also greater for the ems currencies copyright 1994 by ohio state university press

quantitative easing is not as unconventional as it seems policy interest rates do not have to be short the means by which monetary authorities influence prices and quantities can differ but the obstacles to altering one rather than the other are not insuperable inflation is sluggish and expectations of future interest rates long and short nominal and real are diverse and uncertain these factors determine the limited power that monetary authorities enjoy when they conduct quantitative easing but this policy is not as unconventional as some have claimed and indeed can be viewed as broadly similar to conventional monetary measures the impact of quantitative easing however could be very different depending on the underlying structure of the economy and the fiscal authorities responses finally we note some important caveats that must be borne in mind when trying to evaluate the impact of quantitative easing particularly given the fact that the world s main financial markets are closely linked copyright 2012 oxford university press

the advantage of hiding both hands foreign exchange intervention ambiguity and private information this paper analyzes a dynamic exchange rate policy game in which the central bank has private information about its short term exchange rate target on the one hand and in which the market is faced with a certain degree of ambiguity concerning the actual intervention volume on the other sterilized interventions are shown to derive their effectiveness from the fact that they transmit information about the short term exchange rate target to the market in this respect we provide an explanation for the presumed inconsistency between intervention secrecy and the effectiveness of the signalling channel since our model predicts that interventions will be more effective on average if the central bank retains some degree of ambiguity moreover it is also shown that sterilized interventions will not exert a lasting effect on the exchange rate finally we have also investigated the extent to which some political and economic parameters determine the size of the intervention bias

production effects of price and cost based anti dumping laws under flexible exchange rates this paper investigates the production response of an exporting firm when faced with the threat of an anti dumping ad action the firm s production decision is sensitive to market conditions at home and abroad as well as to the definition of dumping we examine the incentives facing the exporting firm under price based marginal cost based and average total cost based anti dumping laws depending on the nature of the anti dumping rules and market conditions a firm s production may rise fall or remain unchanged in response to ad legislation les effets de production des lois anti dumping fondees sur les prix et sur les couts dans un

the road less travelled institutional aspects of data and their influence on empirical estimates with an application to tests of forward rate unbiasedness the difference between data used in empirical studies and that envisioned in the theory can influence empirical estimates sometimes by enough that the direction of future research is altered this paper illustrates how in the context of tests of forward rate unbiasedness a lack of articulation about the mechanics underlying foreign exchange market speculation and about the institutional aspects governing spot and forward rate contracts leads to sampling of the data in a way that is not consistent with the theory the authors find that the sampling problems account for some but not all of the bias in the coefficient on the forward premium copyright 1996 by royal economic society

foreign exchange market efficiency tests implications of recent empirical findings abstract the recent empirical literature on the efficiency of the foreign exchange market has been characterized by strikingly contradictory conclusions drawn from similar empirical evidence these contradictions result because 1 different maintained hypotheses are held and 2 different criteria e g micro versus macroeconomic are used to judge the evidence in this survey we organize the empirical literature under several headings the presence of risk premiums empirical regularities in regression tests profitable trading rules and advanced econometric techniques in integrating this material we consider the implications of the current evidence for investors forecasters policy makers and theorists

order flows news and exchange rate volatility abstract this paper examines the roles of order flow reflecting private information and news reflecting public information in explaining exchange rate volatility analyzing four months of a bank s high frequency dollar euro trading three different kinds of order flow are used in addition to seasonal patterns in explaining volatility we find that only larger sized order flows from financial customers and banks indicating informed trading contribute to explaining volatility whereas flows from commercial customers do not the result is robust when we control for news and other measures of market activity this strengthens the view that exchange rate volatility reflects information processing

is poor worker morale costly to firms in 1985 and 1990 studies norsworthy and zabala reported evidence supporting the hypothesis that declining worker morale has reduced productivity and productivity growth this study partly replicat

empirical evidence on the properties of exchange rate forecasts and the risk premium abstract the purpose in this note is to examine the properties of the risk premium obtained from a new source of market expectations derived from survey data

an empirical examination of long run purchasing power parity using cointegration techniques this paper presents an empirical analysis of long run purchasing power parity ppp for five major exchange rates using recently developed econometric techniques on the cointegration of economic time series our empirical results are extremely unfavourable to the ppp hypothesis as a long run equilibrium condition even with an allowance made for measurement error and or tranportation costs in particular we are unable to reject the hypothesis of non cointegration of the exchange rate and relative prices for any of the countries concerned far from finding a stable long run proportionality between exchange rates and relative prices our results therefore suggest that they tend to drift apart without bound

covered interest parity a high frequency high quality data study profitable deviations from covered interest parity cip represent riskless arbitrage opportunities and so indicate market ineffic iency previous empirical work on cip uses noncontemporaneously sampl ed data and reports mixed results this paper uses high frequency te n minute high quality data gathered personally by the author in th e london foreign exchange market to test the cip condition the resu lts overwhelmingly support the market efficiency hypothesis copyright 1987 by the review of economic studies limited

antidumping cases in the us chemical industry a panel data approach factors motivating the decision to file an antidumping petition are analyzed with data from 1976 88 for the u s chemical industry the incidence of antidumping filings is related to disaggregate levels of and changes in macroeconomic variables in a count model framework import penetration number of employees price cost margins the chemical production index and dumping margins all significantly influence the filing decision while average wages the capital to shipments ratio and the new capital expenditures to shipments ratio do not there is also evidence that antidumping filings increased significantly following implementation of the trade agreements act of 1979 copyright 1994 by blackwell publishing ltd

the term structure of forward exchange premiums and the forecastability of spot exchange rates correcting the errors we develop a framework to extract information regarding subsequent spot rate movements from the term structure of forward exchange premiums while admitting possible deviations from rationality and