a note on the tullock dissipation rate abstract we show among other results that the tullock dissipation rate at a symmetric nash equilibrium under risk aversion approaches the risk neutral rate as rent size becomes small under quadratic risk averse utility the risk neutral rate applies under duopoly regardless of rent size under constant absolute risk aversion the rate rises with rent size

habits costly investment and current account dynamics abstract we analyze the current account dynamics for a small country model with habit forming consumers and costly investment the model has several empirical and policy implications i it is consistent with stylized facts regarding the effects of productivity shocks and increases in fiscal spending and regarding the savings investment co movement ii the long run effect of a temporary shock on net foreign assets is often opposite to that of a permanent shock iii under strong habit persistence the welfare dynamics are sluggish so that a beneficial tax financed fiscal policy may have a harmful hangover effect on welfare

preemptive rent seeking and the social cost of monopoly power abstract monopoly power evokes rent seeking aimed at supplanting an incumbent monopolist as well as preemptive rent seeking by incumbents concerned with deterring entry of potential competitors using an illustrative example where preemptive rent seeking takes the form of excess capacity this note makes the point that the relation between the value of resources expended in the two types of rent seeking activity determines whether exposure of an incumbent monopolist to the discipline of potential competition reduces the social cost of monopoly power

spatial effects of air pollution on public health in china increasingly serious air pollution poses a great threat to public health and daily life based on the grossman china health production function this paper examines the effects of the spatial agglomeration of chinese public health and the spatial effects of air pollution and other factors on public health considering three aspects this study employed chinese macro data on public health and air pollution from 2004 to 2013 to conduct an empirical analysis using a spatial econometrics technique the main conclusions are as follows due to extensive and persistent air pollution there was a significant spatial agglomeration impact on public health regional public health presented a convergence effect and effects of air pollution s negative externalities on public health were significant compared with the estimation results obtained when spatial dependence was not considered the negative effect of the concentration of pm2 5 on public health was higher implying that the traditional approaches tend to create biases when spatial correlation is ignored from a regional perspective the regional differences in the effects of air pollution on public health were significant adopting differentiated environmental policies for different regions is the future direction towards which china s environmental governance will develop

the estimation of surprise models and the surprise consumption function in the first part of the paper we outline a method for estimating a class of models in which news or surprises appear and expectations are formed rationally the method is an extension of the errors in variables method of mccallum and wickens as a by product some of pagan s results on the circumstances under which the commonly used two step method of estimating surprise models is efficient are shown to be a consequence of well known theorems on the efficiency of sub system estimation when a subset of equations are exactly identified in the second part of the paper the method is applied to hall s random walk model of consumption which is extended to allow for stochastic interest rates and for leisure and government spending to be substitutes for private spending the extended formulation is a great deal more successful at capturing the salient features of the data we also derive approximate restrictions across the parameters of the model due to the rational expectations hypothesis but find that they are marginally rejected by the data finally we evaluate the ability of the life cycle with rational expectations model to encompass alternative models

aggregate employment real business cycles and superior information abstract we test whether dynamic stochastic general equilibrium artificial economies associated with several labor market structures provide an adequate characterization of aggregate employment volatility and dynamics our test is robust to possible misspecifications about the information set used by economic agents to forecast future events accounting for agents superior information we find that the divisible labor indivisible labor labor adjustment costs and labor hoarding structures replicate employment volatility in contrast to the nominal wage contracts structure also the labor hoarding structure provides a substantially better account of employment dynamics

habit formation in consumer preferences evidence from panel data this paper tests for the presence of habit formation using household data a simple model of habit formation implies a condition relating the strength of habits to the evolution of consumption over time when the condition is estimated with food consumption data from the panel study on income dynamics the results yield no evidence of habit formation at the annual frequency this finding is robust to a number of changes in the specification it also holds for several proxies for nondurables and services consumption created by combining psid variables with weights estimated from consumer expenditure survey data

welfare losses in canadian manufacturing under alternative oligopoly regimes abstract welfare losses are computed for 167 canadian industries using simulations of a general oligopoly model the computations cover a wide range of oligopoly behavior and reveal the implications of different demand marginal cost and conjectural variation elasticities for the case of horizontal cost losses are a maximum of 0 51 percent of gnp under cournot equilibrium and 6 35 percent under a collusion equilibrium in general losses increase as the absolute value of the price elasticity of demand declines and as marginal cost and conjectural variation elasticities increase

the welfare loss due to strategic investment in excess capacity abstract this paper explores a linear model of excess capacity as a barrier to entry the resultant welfare cost is compared with that of a simple monopolist who does not face an entry threat the threat of entry may actually reduce social welfare when potential consumer surplus is high economies of scale have a non linear effect reducing social cost if there is exces capacity but having the opposite effect when limit pricing is optimal empirical measures of the social cost of monopoly power are found to be poor proxies in the presence of strategic behaviour

a new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the business cycle abstract this paper introduces a general procedure for decomposition of non stationary time series into a permanent and transitory component allowing both components to be stochastic the permanent component is shown to be a random walk with drift and the transitory or cyclical component is a stationary process with mean zero the decomposition methodology which depends only on past data and therefore is computable in real time is applied to the problem of measuring and dating business cycles in the portwar u s economy we find that measured expansions and contractions are of roughly equivalent duration and that our dating of cyclical episodes tends to lead the traditional nber dating and to a lesser extent the growth cycle chronology of zarnowitz and boschan 1977

measuring benefits from air pollution control where do we stand measuring the benefits from reduced morbidity this paper presents a simple model of preventive health care similar to that of grossman 1972 and uses the model to define what a person would pay for a change in air quality the model assumes that one can build up resistance to acute illnes by increasing his stock of health capital however health capital decays at a rate which depends on air pollution for acute illness willingness to pay as derived from the model is greater than the benefit estimate computed using the damage function approach to illustrate the size of this discrepancy estimates of willingness to pay are computed using data from the michigan panel study of income dynamics the case for government providing information about risks rests secure in the theory of public goods informational scale economies and problems of dissemination conceivably call for a principal agent relationship in which certain types of decisions are delegated to the agency however the setting of standards and prohibitions is too simplistic it seldom recognizes that personal action tends to interact with and partially offset them 8 references

finite horizons life cycle savings and time series evidence on consumption abstract this paper develops an explicitly aggregated life cycle model which allows for finite horizons and declining individual labor supply the model can generate a common upward trend in aggregate consumption labor income and nonhuman wealth without relinquishing hall s random walk at the micro level life cycle factors are shown to imply that consumption changes should be a predictable and b smoother than in the infinite horizon model econometric evidence using postwar u s data suggests that neither consumption s predictability nor its excess smoothness can be fully accounted for by life cycle considerations

multiple bgps in a growth model with habit persistence this paper establishes multiple balanced growth paths in an otherwise standard competitive growth model without externality or distortions and with households preference dependent upon how his her consumption compares to a habit stock formed by his her own past consumption the key feature in our model is that consumption forms habits in combination with existing habits this model establishes multiple equilibria because habit persistence induces an internal intertemporal complementarity effect among consumption flows with current consumption reinforcing future consumption as a result there exist two balanced growth paths with one path exhibiting low consumption and habits and high economic growth and the other path exhibiting high consumption and habits and low growth that is not necessarily a development trap both steady states are saddles but global indeterminacy arises where a high balanced growth path co exists with a low balanced growth path where the two equilibrium paths cannot be pareto ranked and history need not matter for the selection of the equilibrium path

looking at the cost side of monopoly welfare loss under oligopoly is defined as that part of consumer surplus which is lost and not regained by higher profits in a model with asymmetric firms this implies that the total welfare loss consists of the deadweight loss triangle plus a cost side inefficiency effect due to the fact that in imperfect markets not all firms utilize the lowest cost technique using a flexible cv model we calculate these effects empirically for two relatively homogeneous industries pulp paper and cement the deadweight loss triangles are shown to be smaller than the cost difference effect the staircase for these industries

multicointegration in us consumption data the present study tests for the existence of multicointegration between real per capita private consumption expenditure and real per capita disposable personal income in the usa in doing so the study exploits the fact that the flows of disposable income and consumption expenditure on the one hand and the stock of consumers wealth which can be considered as cumulative past discrepancies between the flows of income and expenditure on the other hand can be thought of as a stock flow model in which multicointegration is likely to occur recently developed i 2 techniques are applied for testing for multicointegrating relations and find supporting evidence for the existence of multicointegration in us consumption data

an economic analysis of air pollution and health the case of st louis a health oriented choice model is developed in which individuals are viewed as producers of health and good health is desired for both consumption and investment purposes individuals are able to adjust their consumption of medical care in order to defend against reductions in air quality a compensating variation type marginal willingness to pay expression is derived for improved air quality and the model is tested using cross sectional data on employed adult residents of st louis missouri estimates of marginal willingness to pay for the average employed person are derived for a 30 reduction in ozone these values range from 18 45 to 24 48 per year

seeking rents by setting rents the political economy of rent seeking in recent years there has been a large number of papers on the subject of rent seeking most such works on rent seeking have taken the rent as exogenously determined by regulators regulators howeve r may also be expected and indeed have been shown to be rent seeke rs and hence the determination of the rent itself should be endogeniz ed to reflect the fact that the rent setters are themselves rent se ekers in this paper the authors do this by presenting an analysis o f the interaction of regulators firms and consumers within a rent s eeking framework where all three groups are assumed to be self motiva ted the analysis is carried out under alternative assumptions regard ing the nature of the market and the reaction functions of the partic ipants policy implications are drawn where appropriate copyright 1987 by royal economic society

saving and income smoothing evidence from panel data abstract in this paper we use data from a panel of dutch households to investigate the behavior of savings as in campbell 1987 we examine whether the pattern of savings is consistent with the predictions of the rational expectations permanent income model we consider one important prediction of the model whether savings anticipate future income changes we test the predictions of the permanent income model in several ways first we propose some informal tests that exploit directly the information on expected future income changes available in the data we then perform a test of the model by setting up a vector autoregression var in terms of savings and income changes and by using euler equations expressed in terms of savings the empirical evidence shows that in all the specifications used in this paper the permanent income model is rejected contrary to the evidence from u s macro data we do not find that the excess sensitivity of consumption to income is responsible for the rejection of the model

the contributions of angus deaton angus deaton was awarded the 2015 sveriges riksbank prize in economic sciences in memory of alfred nobel for his analysis of consumption poverty and welfare this article reviews his contributions to economics

oligopoly distribution and the rate of profit this paper sets out to explore the division of national income between workers and capitalists in a world where monopoly capitalism dominates both for its intrinsic interest and because of its relevance to the process of accumulation elsewhere cowling 1978 i have tried to substantiate the argument for regarding the contemporary capitalist world as essentially monopolistic rather than essentially competitive but 1 will return to that theme at v uious points in the paper the basic point is that the major corporations art now organ d in often interlinked oligopoly groups in many cases wi h an international base and have captured dominant positions which are relatively unassailable they will remain unassailable partly because these dominant oligopolies will logically invest in their maintenance in order to secure the benefits of the stream of monopoly rents associated with their position competition between and within national oligopoly groups will occasionally break out but these should be seen as transient elements in the accommodation of dilferent capitals to each other the norm in such an oiigopolistic world will be collusion over output or plricing policies with collusion being itself the product of potentially rivalruus behaviour a seemingly paradoxical result which we will seek to subslantiate agents have substantial economic power and will use it in a variety of ways which has to be recognired in any discussion of the distribution of national income this point was obviously clearly recognised by kalecki 1971 steindl 1952 and baran and sweezy 1966 and the present paper follows closely on their work the starting point will be an attempt to complete kalecki s model of distribution by specifying the relationship between elements of market structure and the share of gross capitalist income plus salaries in value added this will allow us to precisely identify those processes which will lead

does buffer stock saving explain the smoothness and excess sensitivity of consumption one of the lasting contributions to modernday consumer theory is the idea that consumption is determined by the expected value of lifetime resources or permanent income the modern day specification of this concept is typically presented as a special case of intertemporalchoice theory where felicity functions are quadratic labor income is stochastic there are no restrictions on borrowing consumers have infinite horizons and expectations are formed rationally we refer to this model as the permanentincome hypothesis pih although the pih has considerable intuitive appeal a series of influential papers published after its inception revealed two notable discrepancies between the model s predictions and aggregate data first the model predicts that consumption growth should be more volatile than income growth if aggregate income growth has positive serial correlation as the quarterly data suggest it does yet aggregate consumption growth is in fact much smoother than aggregate income growth angus deaton 1987 john y campbell and deaton 1989 jordi gali 1991 second the pih predicts that consumption changes should be orthogonal to predictable or lagged income changes yet the coffelation between consumption growth and lagged income growth has been found to be one of the most robust features of aggregate data for example marjorie a flavin 1981 alan s blinder and deaton 1985 campbell and n gregory mankiw 1989 orazio p attanasio and guglielmo weber 1993 thus aggregate consumption growth has been described as exhibiting two puzzles it is both excessively smooth relative to current labor income growth and excessively sensitive to lagged labor income growth 2 in response to these and other empirical anomalies researchers have recently sought out modifications of the pih framework chief ludvigson federal reserve bank of new york 33 liberty street new york ny 10045 michaelides university of cyprus p o box 20537 1678 nicosia cyprus a previous version of this paper appeared under the title can we explain the consumption excesses yet aggregate consumption implications of buffer stock saving behavior for many helpful comments we thank orazio attanasio dave backus ben bernanke john y campbell christopher carroll todd clark angus deaton pierreolivier gourinchas bo honore james kahn martin lettau costas meghir christina paxson steve pischke andrew samwick christopher sims mark watson guglielmo weber michael woodford steve zeldes and two anonymous referees conference participants at the national bureau of economic research summer workshop on the aggregate implications of microeconomic consumption behavior july 1998 the tmr workshop on saving and pensions center tilburg university march 1999 and the new york area macroeconomics workshop october 1998 seminar participants at columbia university insead the new york federal reserve university college london london business school city university business school university of cyprus tel aviv university and jeffrey brown for excellent research assistance the views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the federal reserve bank of new york or the federal reserve system any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the authors 1 note that the important insight of danny quah 1990 that individuals may be better able than econometricians to distinguish short run from long run innovations to their income cannot resolve the excess smoothness puzzle laid out in campbell and deaton 1989 these authors show that in the context of the pih excess sensitivity and excess smoothness are the same phenomena in addition campbell 1987 demonstrates that superior information of the type emphasized by quah will show up in households saving behavior and using this information allows the econometrician to control for the agent s private information when predicting income since excess sensitivity is well established and controlling for saving does not eliminate it see campbell and deaton 1989 the observed smoothness of consumption cannot be explained by superior information on the part of permanent income consumers see deaton 1992 for further discussion 2 philippe bacchetta and stefan gerlach 1997 and ludvigson 1999 document another kind of excess sensitivity the correlation between consumption growth and predictable changes in consumer credit although we do not explore these findings here ludvigson finds that a bufferstock model with time varying liquidity constraints can replicate such a correlation

dominant firms price leadership and the measurement of monopoly welfare losses abstract the possible welfare losses associated with monopoly power have been the subject of numerous studies over a number of decades recent estimates seem to confirm the earliest estimates which suggested that such losses were relatively trivial this paper suggests that the basis of such estimates is questionable in particular it is argued that the familiar dominant firm price leadership model is not well suited to the task of estimating monopoly welfare losses more appropriate assumptions are identified and their implications for assessing the magnitude of potential welfare losses are illustrated

why is consumption so smooth for thirty years it has been accepted that consumption is smooth because permanent income is smoother than measured income this paper considers the evidence for the contrary position that permanent income is in fact less smooth than measured income so that the smoothness of consumption cannot be straightforwardly explained by permanent income theory the paper argues that in postwar u s quarterly data consumption is smooth because it responds with a lag to changes in income

does air pollution aggravate income inequality in china an empirical analysis based on the view of health abstract given the rapid development of the chinese economy especially its accelerated urbanization air pollution and income inequality as two of the most important global issues have also become hot topics in china however limited attention has been devoted to understanding their joint evolution in the literature in this study we thus investigate the relationship between them using a multi level nested data model which enables us to estimate the long run distribution effect of air pollution on individuals of different socioeconomic statuses based on china s city level pm2 5 emissions and individual level income we further examine the mechanisms behind the evolution using a 3sls model the estimation results reveal that the increase in air pollution concentration has short term positive production effects and long term negative impacts on individual income and will exacerbate the income inequality across socioeconomic statuses individuals of lower socioeconomic status have disadvantages in achieving efficient avoiding knowledge and measures the results of 3sls model confirm the existence of the health channel through which air pollution exerts influence on income inequality these results provide a roadmap for policymakers first a comprehensive assessment of the health burden distribution from air pollution on individuals of different socioeconomic statuses should be considered for environmental policymaking second the regional disparities and differences among income groups should also be considered during this process third equal access to basic public services should be the primary target of environmental regulations moreover compensation and assistance for the health issues caused by environmental pollution could be an important supplement to these regulations future study could do further analysis of the specific level of health burden due to different types of pollutants and their relationship with income inequality

consumers are not ricardian evidence from nineteen countries i introduction in conventional macroeconomic analysis government debt affects the economy because households view it as net wealth the larger the government debt is the wealthier households feel and the more they consume in principle however households need not view government debt as net wealth david ricardo pointed out that they might conceivably treat the future taxes servicing the government debt as exactly offsetting it 1 robert barro 1974 has shown that maximizing households will actually do so if they accurately anticipate future taxes if they face perfect capital markets and if they have effectively infinite horizons ricardian equivalence is said to hold if households do treat future servicing taxes as an exact offset to the government debt many empirical papers on consumption have investigated whether ricardian equivalence is consistent with observation kochin 1974 barro 1978 tanner 1979 seater 1982 kormendi 1983 aschauer 1985 seater and mariano 1985 kormendi and meguire 1986 1990 leiderman and razin 1988 evans 1988 and evans and hasan 1993 have reported evidence consistent with ricardian equivalence by contrast blinder and deaton 1985 feldstein 1978 1982 boskin and kotlikoff 1985 modigliani and sterling 1986 1990 and feldstein and elmendorf 1990 have reported evidence inconsistent with ricardian equivalence unfortunately most of these studies do not estimate regression equations that derive from well specified theoretical models nesting both ricardian equivalence and an alternative theory in which budget deficits and current taxes are not equivalent consequently their results are often hard to interpret moreover these studies consider the data for only one country typically the united states as a result the tests that are performed may not have much power to distinguish an economy for which ricardian equivalence would be a good approximation from one for which it would be a bad approximation olivier blanchard 1985 has provided one of the few models in the literature that tractably nests ricardian equivalence and an alternative in which households view government debt as net wealth depending upon whether a crucial parameter is zero or positive households have infinite horizons internalize all future generations and exhibit ricardian behavior or have finite horizons are at least somewhat disconnected from future generations and exhibit non ricardian behavior that strengthens as the parameter becomes larger the model has testable implications that this paper examines using annual data for nineteen countries when the data for the countries are pooled the tests have sufficient power not only to reject ricardian equivalence in favor of blanchard s alternative but also to yield a precise estimate of the deviation from ricardian equivalence this estimated deviation is approximately what one would expect if capital and insurance markets were perfect and households did not have altruistic bequest motives the deviation is however also economically unimportant for many purposes the rest of the paper is organized as follows section ii lays out blanchard s model and derives the testable implications of ricardian equivalence section iii tests these implications section iv summarizes the findings of the paper and interprets them ii empirical implications of ricardian equivalence in the stochastic variant of blanchard s model formulated in this section the economy is inhabited by a constant population of households that have finite horizons and face perfect capital and insurance markets 2 each household has a finite horizon because it has a probability p of dying each period and being replaced by another household from which it is entirely disconnected with the population normalized to unity the number of households born 0 1 2 periods earlier is always p p 1 p p 1 p sup

monopoly deregulation in the presence of tullock activities we give the condition for a welfare improving monopoly deregulation when the decision making process cannot be insulated from tullock activities and players are risk neutral

risk averse rent seekers and the social cost of monopoly power there is now quite general recognition that the social cost of monopoly power encompasses the resources expended by individuals seeking to become the beneficiaries of monopoly rents however since the activity of rent seeking is generally not observable direct estimates of resources expended in quests to acquire monopoly power are usually impossible to come by 1 as a consequence the indirect approach of taking the observed value of monopoly rents as indicative of the unobserved value of the resources expended in rent seeking is quite generally adopted in approaches to evaluation of the social cost of such activity

has federal budget deficit policy changed in recent years this paper applies new tests for parameter instability in cointegrated regression models to the u s federal government s intertemporal budget constraint in order to detect whether there has been a regime change in spending and taxing policies some researchers have argued that fiscal policy under presidents reagan and bush moved the u s deficit onto an unsustainable path my results suggest that government deficit policy in the 1980s was not significantly different from policies during the three earlier decades however a diverging debt gnp ratio suggests that the government will run into problems marketing its debt if current policy continues

a general equilibrium approach to the measurement of monopoly welfare loss abstract the paper presents a framework for the evaluation of monopoly welfare losses in a general equilibrium context which includes factors of production it shows that aggregation of partial equilibrium estimates is likely to be seriously misleading as in indicator of aggregate welfare costs however simple approximations to aggregate losses can be derived even in general equilibrium in the case where there are no constraints on the exercise of monopoly power these approximations suggest that welfare losses are potentially large if empirically observed losses are small the implication is not that allocative efficiency is unimportant but that real economies are competitive

ricardian equivalence in the presence of capital market imperfections abstract it is a common claim that ricardian equivalence fails if capital markets are imperfect the validity of this claim is examined for the case of informationally imperfect capital markets we present three alternative models of adverse selection and analyze the effects of debt finance in these models it is shown that a debt financed tax cut can lead to pareto improvement in some cases in the theoretically most preferable model however ricardian equivalence survives in spite of genuine imperfections in the capital market the results point to the importance of specifying the exact nature of imperfection

the market value and maturity structure of government of canada debt 1967 83 the market value and maturity structure of outstanding government of canada debt are calculated at monthly frequency for the 1967 to 1983 period the data are disaggregated into general public chartered bank and government holdings the time series behaviour of market value and par value measures are examined to determine whether par value is a reasonable approximation for market value market value data are also used to construct an alternative measure of the deficit flow which is compared with conventional measures of the deficit la valeur au marche et la structure d echeances de la dette du gouvernement du canada 1967 83 la valeur au marche et la structure d echeances de la dette du gouvernement du canada sont calculees par les auteurs pour chaque mois au cours de la periode de 1967 a 1983 on a ventile les resultats en portions detenues par le grand public par les banques a charte et par le gouvernement les auteurs examinent ensuite la chronique des mesures de valeurs au march6 et de valeurs au pair afin de determiner si la valeur au pair est une bonne approximation de la valeur au marche on se sert alors des donnees precisant la valeur au marche pour construire un indicateur de rechange du d6ficit qu on peut alors comparer aux mesures conventionnelles du deficit

consumption and portfolio choice under internal multiplicative habit formation this paper explores the optimal consumption and investment behavior of an individual who derives utility from the ratio between his consumption and an endogenous habit we obtain closed form policies under general utility functionals and stochastic investment opportunities by developing a nontrivial linearization to the budget constraint this enables us to explicitly characterize how habit formation affects the marginal propensity to consume and optimal stock bond investments we also show that in a setting that combines habit formation with epstein zin utility consumption no longer grows at unrealistically high rates at high ages and investments in risky assets decrease

are consumers ricardian evidence for the united states this paper derives three empirical implications of a well specified model of consumer behavior a model that nests both ricardian equivalence and an alternative non ricardian theory ricardian equivalence is then tested against this alternative the tests reveal that ricardian equivalence cannot be rejected

uncertain monopoly rent and the social cost of rent seeking abstract assuming that monopoly rent is uncertain we derive a dissipation rate formula that generalizes the hillman and katz formula we show that for large enough variance the dissipation rate increases with mean monopoly rent

blanchard s model of consumption an empirical study this article derives several empirically testable implications for blanchard s consumption model which has been widely used in analytical macroeconomic research cointegration methods are applied the parameter that measures the life horizon of households is estimated and the consumption model is tested quarterly canadian data are used there is no empirical evidence against the assumption that households behave as if they live forever within blanchard s framework blanchard s model of consumption is strongly rejected by the data however

how forward looking are consumers further evidence for the united states this paper extends a standard model of consumption to test for the existence of myopic consumers the extended model includes rule of thumb consumers as well as consumers who are assumed to solve a dynamic programming problem the model allows this second set of consumers however to be boundedly rational for a variety of reasons they may be unable to fully account for their future uncertain labor income the model predicts that this inability to correctly value future resources leads to the breakdown of the simple permanent income hypothesis and that consumption responds to predictable changes in income using data for the united states for the period 1951 1990 the paper finds evidence of such myopic behavior

consumer resistance and monopoly behavior under franchise contestability the probability of a deregulation under anti monopoly consumer lobby is generated at the cournot nash equilibrium of a lobbying game which depends on the monopoly rent and the deadweight loss this probability is increasing and convex in monopoly price when the deregulation probability constraint is binding the monopolist s price rises with the number of consumers the competitive price and the given ceiling probability the social cost of a monopoly under franchise contestability differs from the posner measure

international evidence on the persistence of economic fluctuations abstract this paper presents new evidence on the persistence of fluctuations in real gnp we estimate two measures of persistence nonparametrically using post war quarterly data from canada france germany italy japan the united kingdom and the united states we compare these estimates with monte carlo results from various ar 2 processes for six out of seven countries the point estimates indicate that a 1 shock to output should change the long run unvariate forecast of output by well over 1 low order arma models yield similar conclusions finally we examine the persistence in relative outputs of different countries

risk sharing and industrial specialization regional and international evidence the authors provide empirical evidence that risk sharing enhances specialization in production to the best of their knowledge this well established and important theoretical proposition has not been tested before the empirical procedure is summarized as follows first the authors construct a measure of specialization in production and calculate an index of specialization for each of the european community ec and non ec oecd countries u s states canadian provinces japanese prefectures latin american countries and regions of italy spain and the united kingdom then they estimate the degree of capital market integration a measure of risk sharing within each of these groups of regions the ec countries the non ec oecd countries the united states canada japan italy spain and the united kingdom and rely on another author s estimate for latin america finally they perform a regression of the specialization index on the degree of risk sharing controlling for relevant economic variables they find a positive and significant relation between the degree of specialization of individual members of a group of countries provinces states or prefectures and the amount of risk that is shared within the group the authors perform regressions using variables such as shareholder rights and the size of the financial sector relative to gdp as instruments for the amount of inter regional risk sharing these regressions confirm that risk sharing facilitated by a favorable legal environment and a developed financial system is a direct causal determinant of industrial specialization this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the deaton paradox in a long memory context with structural breaks this article contributes to the permanent income hypothesis pih and excess consumption smoothness debate in the context of fractional integration we show that the excess consumption smoothness result is a consequence of the quarterly data frequency commonly employed in the empirical work in fact the i 1 hypothesis is rejected for the income process with monthly data in favour of a fractional integration order lower than 1 moreover if a structural break is taken into account we observe a substantial reduction in the degree of consumption smoothness especially after the break found in 1975