choice under uncertainty a model of applications for the social security disability insurance program abstract not all people with health problems are disabled some individuals with severe physical or mental impairments such as blindness or limb amputation continue to hold jobs and generally function satisfactorily they constitute however a group of potentially disabled individuals who might apply and qualify for disability insurance or other disability related benifits if they were to lose their jobs or to decide that employment offered an inadequate financial or non pecuniary reward thus disability or a health related inability to work is more than a medical problem but involves motivational and attitudinal factors we specify a model of the application process which we model as choice under uncertainty about approval of an application for disability insurance we specify the possible outcomes to the choice process of an individual in which the probability of acceptance for disability insurance is a key consideration we then estimate a joint model of labor supply and application to the disability insurance program based on the 1972 survey we then compare our results to the observed time series applications process since 1976 lastly we estimate the sensitivity of the application process to the probability of acceptance and the level of benifits

auctions with contingent payments there now exists a host of results concerning the revenue performance of various auction methods this note delves deeper into auction markets by examining the effects on sellers revenue of certain noncash means of payment the basic result that bidding mediums which include some contingent pricing feature generally yield the seller more revenue than do cash bids is intriguing by itself and also points out the limitations of received theory since what follows builds on the independent preferences framework it is useful to first note the assumptions of that model and the major results pertaining to it to model an auction in the independent preferences tradition one assumes that bidders have reservation values vi that are known only privately and that can be depicted as being drawn independently from some distribution f v the most important result for this model is the revenue equivalence theorem as given in john riley and william samuelson 1981 any auction involving risk neutral bidders for which the following four conditions hold a a buyer can make any bid above some minimum reserve price b the buyer making the highest bid is awarded the object c the auction rules are anonymous and d there is a common equilibrium bidding strategy in which each buyer makes a bid bi which is a strictly increasing function of his reservation value vi yields an expected revenue of

nash equilibria of repeated games with observable payoff vectors abstract we study a model of repeated games with imperfect monitoring where the payoff vector is observable in this situation any profitable deviation is detectable by all the players but the identity of the deviator may be unknown we design collective punishments directed against the set of potential deviators a particular class of signals is studied for which a characterization of the set of equilibrium payoffs is obtained journal of economic literature classification numbers c73

the decline in male labor force participation comment in an article in thisjournal parsons 1980a analyzes the doubling in the rate of nonparticipation in the labor force of older men since 1946 using cross sectional data from the national longitudinal survey parnes et al 1970 in an index function model of the labor force participation decision he tests the assertion that the withdrawal of older males is attributable to the rapid expansion of alternatives to work provided by the social security disability insurance ssdi program he reports an elasticity of nonparticipation with respect to the replacement rate of ssdi benefits of 631 and concludes that the recent decline in labor force participation can be largely explained by the increased generosity of social welfare transfers particularly social security disability payments p 130 the magnitude of parsons s estimate and its impact on the public debate over disability transfer policy require careful scrutiny of its basis in section i we describe parsons s econometric model and construction of variables in section ii we provide a critique in section iii we test the robustness of parsons s elasticity estimate by presenting alternative estimates based on corrections and extensions of his basic model section iv concludes

social security disability insurance applications awards and lifetime income flows this article provides new evidence about the impact of social security disability insurance on male labor force participation decisions based on estimates from a structural model of applications awards and state contingent lifetime income flows the lifetime framework makes it possible to consider long term opportunity costs associated with early labor force withdrawal and the disincentive to applications resulting from the statutory waiting period before benefits may be received estimation techniques account for the self selected nature of the pool of applicants when predicting the individual specific probability of acceptance and the opportunity costs of applying

mechanism design with interdependent valuations efficiency ggagents valuations are interdependent if they depend on the signals or types of all agents under the implicit assumption that agents cannot observe their outcome decision payoffs previous literature has shown that with interdependent valuations and independent signals efficient design is impossible this paper shows that an efficient mechanism exists in an environment where first the final outcome e g allocation of the goods is determined then the agents observe their own outcome decision payoffs and then final transfers are made

competition and the racial wage gap evidence from brazil abstract we look at the natural experiment represented by the brazilian trade liberalization from the early 1990s to study the effect of increased competition in the market for final goods on the racial wage gap we focus on local labor markets as the unit of analysis and use the initial structure of employment to calculate the relevant tariff reduction from the perspective of each local labor market we show that the conditional racial wage gap fell more between 1991 and 2000 in regions associated with larger reductions in tariffs or in other words in regions that experienced larger increases in exposure to international competition a reduction in tariffs equivalent to the average observed in the sample was associated with a reduction in the racial wage gap of 18 our results are broadly consistent with theories of employer discrimination that predict that reductions in pure economic rents should lead to reductions in labor market discrimination

bidding with securities comment to feasible securities 1 their main finding concerns the role of the steepness of securities in determining the seller s revenue they show that the steeper the payment to the seller as a func tion of the realized value the higher is the seller s expected revenue a shift from a security say a debt to a steeper one say equity or call option flattens the surplus accruing to a bidder as a function of his future realized value and this levels the competitive gaps between bidders hence the competition becomes intensified 2 in this comment we wish to add to dks analysis a caveat that the adverse selection prob lem should be an important part of security and auction design consideration unlike cash bids security bids are difficult to evaluate when the seller does not know the buyer s exact type for instance a 40 percent share of an asset managed by a buyer may be less valuable than a 30 per cent share of the same asset managed by a different buyer if the latter is much more competent lacking such information a seller may fall victim to adverse selection choosing a wrong bidder this problem has been noted by several authors such as william samuelson 1987 simon board 2007 and charles zheng 2001 in the context of a fixed security design our concern here is its relevance for security design we show that the adverse selection problem may lead to rankings of alternative security designs that are quite different from and in fact opposite to those found in dks in particular under a reasonable circumstance a steeper security is more vulnerable to adverse selection and could result in a poorer revenue performance than a flatter security to illustrate suppose there are two buyers 1 and 2 buyer 1 2 has a project which gener ates a gross return of v and requires initial investment cost of x r suppose that vx v2 0 and xx x2 and also that vx xx v2 x2 that is buyer 1 s project generates a higher net return so is efficient to select but requires a higher investment than buyer 2 s project this assumption is reasonable a financially distressed or bankrupt firm will more likely turn profitable again under management willing to infuse more cash for instance or a firm that can generate a greater value from an underperforming target is more likely to have a higher opportunity cost e g of pursuing other target or standalone values the assumption is equally compelling in other contexts such as the government sale of oil leases

black white earnings differentials privatization versus deregulation over 40 years ago gary becker 1957 argued that competition helps mitigate the ability of firms to engage in wage and employment discrimination deregulated transportation industries in particular provide fertile ground to test the becker hypothesis the increase in competition from deregulation should make it increasingly costly for employers to exercise discriminatory preferences several studies of the deregulated trucking industry provide support for this hypothesis nancy l rose 1987 peoples and lisa saunders 1993 john s heywood and peoples 1994 this study also utilizes information on transportation industries to test the becker hypothesis it differs from the literature in that one of the transportation industries examined is privatized 1 at question is whether the becker hypothesis also holds for a publicly owned transportation industry in a privatized environment this question is addressed by investigating privatization s effect on black white earnings differentials of public transit bus drivers these results are then compared with deregulation s effect on black white earnings differentials of private for hire truck drivers such a comparison allows for analyzing differences in differential earnings for comparable occupations in privatization and deregulation regimes i transportation industries

disability insurance benefits and labor supply a critical input for assessing the optimal size of disability insurance programs is the elasticity of labor force participation with respect to the generosity of benefits unfortunately this parameter has been difficult to estimate in the context of the u s disability insurance program since all workers face an identical benefits schedule i surmount this problem by studying the experience of canada which operates two distinct disability insurance programs for quebec and for the rest of canada the latter program raised its benefits by 36 percent in january 1987 whereas benefits in quebec were constant i find a sizable labor supply response to the policy change my central estimates imply an elasticity of labor force nonparticipation with respect to disability insurance benefits of 0 28 0 36

trucking deregulation and the black white wage gap the only previous study of the effect of product market deregulation on the black white wage gap found that this gap in the trucking industry declined after trucking deregulation in 1978 that study did not however estimate the separate effects of deregulation on union and nonunion members or on black and white drivers this study does so through an analysis of individual worker information from the march and may cps files for the years 1973 through 1988 the authors find that deregulation is associated with significantly declining black white wage gaps among both union and nonunion drivers this wage pattern is attributable to significant reductions in the real wages of white drivers the real wages of black drivers did not change with deregulation

the retirement health nexus a new measure of an old puzzle traditional empirical models of retirement which use a self assessed health measure have often found that the wage rate has a surprisingly small effect on retirement using both a self reported health measure and one not based on self report subsequent mortality experience in a more general reduced form joint demand framework we test the importance of the interaction effects of health and retirement our findings are consistent with a joint determination of health and retirement the wage elasticity using either health measure is about equal to that found in a single equation model when a mortality measure is used but all three elasticities are five times greater than one found using self reported health in a traditional single equation model

the economic implications of public disability insurance in the united states a review of previous analyses of labor supply effects of social security disability insurance di concludes that estimates of labor supply effects and net social costs are upward biased because they ignore interactions between di and other insurances a model of optimal insurance postinjury accommodations and labor supply shows that reduction in labor supply and increase in consumption when disabled do not necessarily imply moral hazard optimal postinjury accommodations vary inversely with firm size the americans with disabilities act will reduce wages and labor supply of healthy workers particularly in small firms effects on labor supply of the disabled are ambiguous

efficient dynamic mechanisms with interdependent valuations this paper considers a dynamic environment with interdependent valuations and evolving private information under the assumption of independent types we construct an efficient incentive compatible mechanism that is also budget balanced in every period of the game our mechanism works in environments where in each period each agent observes her own realized outcome decision payoff from the previous period this extends the insight of mezzetti 2004 to the dynamic setting

measuring the effect of disability on labor force participation this paper estimates the effect of disability on labor force participation by using symptoms or diseases as instruments in a simultaneous equations model of endogenous reported disability and labor force participation the results show that each measure of disability explains a significant amount of variation in labor force participation though the two are not perfect substitutes there is only weak evidence of endogeneity of the disability variables for cases where there is evidence of endogeneity the bias it causes has the opposite effect of that hypothesized in the literatute i e stress causes health to deteriorate with labor force participation furthermore it has only insignificant effects on the coefficients for other variables

disability earnings income and consumption using longitudinal data for the period 1968 2005 for a sample of male household heads we determine the prevalence of disability during the working years and examine how the extent of disability affects a range of outcomes including earnings income and consumption we have seven main findings first disability rates are high we divide the disabled along two dimensions based on the persistence and severity of their work limiting condition we estimate that a person reaching age 56 has a 53 percent chance of having been disabled at least once during his working years and a 19 percent chance that he has begun a chronic and severe disability second the economic consequences of disability are frequently profound ten years after disability onset a person with a chronic and severe disability on average experiences a 68 percent decline in earnings a 32 percent decline in after tax income a 22 percent decline in food and housing consumption and a 21 percent decline in food consumption third the various economic consequences differ sharply across disability groups the outcome declines for those with a chronic and severe disability are often more than twice as large as those for the average disabled fourth our findings show the partial and incomplete roles that individual savings family support and social insurance play in reducing the consumption drop that follows disability only about half of this most disabled group reports receiving social security disability insurance or supplemental security income fifth we find a noticeable fall in earnings and income prior to the onset of a reported disability consumption also falls somewhat suggesting that future disability is partially but incompletely predictable in the short run sixth time use and detailed consumption data further indicate that disability is associated with a decline in well being seventh the quantities we have estimated combined with elasticities from the literature allow us to examine the optimality of current compensation for the disabled we find that the current compensation for our most disabled group appears to be lower than is optimal

disability insurance rejection rates and the labor supply of older workers abstract we investigate the effects of trying to mitigate moral hazard in the disability insurance di program by raising the stringency of the screening process for applicants we do so by studying a dramatic increase in rejection rates for the di program in the late 1970s which varied substantially across the us states we find that each 10 rise in denial rates led to a statistically significant 2 8 fall in labor force non participation among 45 64 year old males we also find that the denial rate increases effectively targeted their incentive effects to more able individuals according to an anthropometric measure of disability

does disability insurance receipt discourage work using examiner assignment to estimate causal effects of ssdi receipt abstract we present the first causal estimates of the effect of social security disability insurance benefit receipt on labor supply using all program applicants we use administrative data to matc

do public ownership and lack of competition matter for wages and employment evidence from personnel records of a privatized firm do public sector firm ownership and lack of competition matter for wages and employment to address this question we consider a large public sector company that is privatized using personnel records we find employment contract liberalization to generate relative wage losses for older high tenure low skilled part time workers permanent residents and women employment reductions mostly affect the same groups experiencing a wage decline overall wage liberalization leads to an increase in wage inequality of between 6 and 9 which if applied to the whole public sector would lead to a 52 to 76 closure of the inequality gap between the private and public sectors in europe our results suggest that differences between public and private sector wage structures found in descriptive studies are to a large extent causal rather than the result of selection into these sectors and that public sector employment and career path regulations limit a firm s ability to maintain a competitive workforce

the economic implications of disability insurance in canada the article empirically estimates the effects of disability pensions provided under the canada quebec pension plans on the labor force participation rates of males aged 45 64 years two data sets are used one consists of pooled cross section annual time series data by province for the years 1975 83 the other consists of observations as of 1985 on 651 males in the specified age group naive estimation results from both sets of data suggest a large negative effect of pension income in the case of the micro data this effect becomes small and statistically nonsignificant when more sophisticated estimation methods are used

the importance of the measure of health in empirical estimates of the labor supply of older men abstract when a more objective measure of health is used economic variables previously masked by self reported health measures are found to significantly affect work effort of older men this may explain differences in results of previous studies even when the same empirical specifications are used

work and health after retirement a competing risks model with semiparametric unobserved heterogeneity competing risks models recognize that there may be more than one exit from a given state but they make the strong assumption that there is no correlation between unobserved heterogeneity components in each state here a competing risks model that uses a semiparametric method of estimation and controls for the correlation between unobserved heterogeneity components in each state is compared with a traditional competing risks model of exit from retirement the unobservable heterogeneity components of the competing risks are insignificantly positively correlated and the effects of policy relevant variables are changed somewhat copyright 1989 by mit press

using propensity matching estimators to evaluate the impact of privatization on wages whether the transfer of ownership rights to the private sector leads to a decline or increase in wage growth is theoretically ambiguous given that the outcome depends on the uncertain interaction between firms and workers using propensity matching techniques this article investigates the effects of privatization on wages in the portuguese banking industry the empirical results obtained from quadros de pessoal for the period between 1989 and 1997 generally show a negative positive short run long run effect of privatization on relative wage growth for both men and women retained in the privatized firms moreover the results show that the most educated and experienced oldest workers as well as those in the high skill occupational categories were more likely to experience a negative wage effect

the impact of economic conditions on participation in disability programs evidence from the coal boom and bust abstract we examine the impact of the coal boom of the 1970 s and the coal bust of the 1980 s on disability program participation these shocks provide clear evidence that as the value of labor market participation increases disability program participation falls for the disability insurance program the elasticity of payments with respect to local earnings is between 0 3 and 0 4 and for supplemental security income the elasticity is between 0 4 and 0 7 consistent with a model where qualifying for disability programs is costly the relationship between economic conditions and program participation is much stronger for permanent than for transitory economic shocks

full extraction of the surplus in bayesian and dominant strategy auctions we consider auctions for a single indivisible object in the case where the bidders have information about each other which is not available to the seller we show that the seller can use this information to his own benefit and we completely characterize the environ ments in which a well chosen auction gives him the same expected payoff as that obtainable were he able to sell the object with full information about each bidder s willingness to pay we provide this characterization for auctions in which the bidders have dominant strate gies and for those where the relevant equilibrium concept is bayesian nash in both set ups the existence of these auctions hinges on the possibility of constructing lotteries with the correct properties we consider the situation in which an agent the seller possesses one indivisible unit of a good to which he attaches no value but the good has value to a number of potential buyers and its transfer to one of them would increase social welfare in particular the transfer to the buyer with the highest valuation maximizes social welfare in this paper we completely characterize environments in which the seller can design an auction that will enable him to capture for himself the full increase in social welfare induced by the transfer of the good to the bidder with the highest willingness to pay if the seller had full information about the reservation prices of potential buyers his optimal selling strategy would be very simple he would announce a price equal or very close to the highest reservation value the optimal strategy for the bidder with the highest evaluation would be to accept the offer note that we are treating a situation in which the seller can commit himself to a price as a result of the exchange the utility of the seller increases by the full amount of the increase in social welfare and he has been able to fully extract the surplus in many circumstances however a seller has only imperfect knowledge of the buyers willingnesses to pay in this case he must find some mechanism or auction which will enable him to maximize his benefit from the sale of the object the auction literature starts with this observation and shows how the seller can by an astute choice of auction extract the largest possible fraction of the surplus in general the literature has shown that this proportion is strictly less than one in some circumstances the bidders will have information about each other which is not available to the seller for instance in auctions for petroleum drilling rights bidders know the results of geological tests which they have

labor market behavior of older men abstract a three way qualitative choice model is employed to evaluate the response of men aged 62 64 to changes in expected income flows in alternative work and public transfer program options in the united states workers in this age group have three available options working accepting public early retirement benefits and private pensions or seeking and accepting public disability benefits we estimate the change in response to two income flows expected nontransfer largely labor market income and expected transfer income using the estimated responses we simulate the pattern of altered choices from two changes in the public transfer system a 20 percent decrease in benefits for early retirement and an earnings related income supplement while the reduction in early retirement benefits results in a small percentage decrease in the number of retirees the earnings supplement has a substantial positive effect on the number of older men choosing to continue working and results in both a rise in government expenditures and in family income