future biodiesel policy designs and consumption patterns in latvia a system dynamics model abstract decarbonisation of transport has become central to european union policy biofuels are expected to represent a substantial part of the overall strategy towards diversifying europe s energy supplies and curbing greenhouse gas emissions in a cost effective way this research deals with the dynamic simulation modeling of a biodiesel market as a part of transportation fuel market and analyses of various policy support instruments on increasing the proportion of biofuel in total transport fuel demand the study is carried out for latvia s road transport sector after it had experienced generous financial support from the government allowing the industry to develop support was abruptly stopped creating stagnation in both biodiesel supply and demand this threatened the national transport policy goals the goal of this research is to find the most effective policy strategies for achieving the national transport policy goals by applying system dynamics modeling to the current market conditions of transport fuels specifically the primary focus of this paper is an attempt to gain insight into the long term dynamic behavior of the biodiesel market in latvia the principal policy tools and mechanisms implemented can be summarized as i state subsidies at different levels and stages i e the biodiesel production sector the agricultural sector and the end consumer sectors ii increasing the excise taxes on fossil fuels iii increasing the share of the biodiesel in the transportation fuel blend the results obtained from model simulations confirm that promoting biofuel acceptance among end users is the primary key issue

time series econometric analyses of biofuel related price volatility time series econometrics studies have analyzed volatility interactions between biofuel and food and fossil fuel markets we review data modeling techniques and the main findings in the literature and present our latest contributions we identify areas for further research

willingness to supply biomass for bioenergy production a random parameter truncated analysis this paper presents research results based on data from two biomass producer surveys collected from mid missouri and southern illinois a series of random parameter truncated regressions are utilized to analyze willingness to supply results under three price scenarios marginal effects suggest that producers will supply an additional 1 6 to 2 4 of their biomass production for each one dollar increase in price and that supply for three types of biomass stover straw and hay is elastic this means commercial developers that are interested in pricing biomass and policy makers considering subsidies could expect modest supply responses for each dollar increase in price

convergence of european wheat yields the paper makes several contributions to the study of wheat yield changes in europe and the resulting economic consequences in the near to medium term future in particular it addresses the issue of the effects of yield changes on land use the transition and growth of yields are estimated using a combination of convergence time series and dynamic panel models scenarios are then run using estimated yields as input into a computable general equilibrium cge model the cge model provides a narrative framework through which the total economic impact of changes in yields can be analyzed together the complementary approaches of econometrics and general equilibrium models allow a more complete economic analysis of the consequences of yield changes for this important biofuels crop to emerge although there is no evidence of a common rate of yield convergence across europe there is evidence of absolute convergence standard time series and panel forecasting methods indicate the potential for only very modest yearly yield increases across most of europe given optimistic assumptions although potential yearly increases in newer european states could in some cases be substantially higher however the total amount of land released as a result of potential yield increases in the wheat sector is only modest because of an increase in demand for land by sectors other than wheat the overall question of whether significant yield increases will necessarily lead to large increases in land available to produce bio energy crops is rejected land freed by wheat yield increases will go to the production of a wide range of agricultural products that value it as an input the same reasoning which links yields and land use applies to all agricultural products when there are well functioning markets

did steve forbes scare the us municipal bond market abstract this paper investigates the relationship of the daily spread between taxable and municipal securities to a daily indicator of the likelihood of a tax reform that would eliminate the preference now accorded to municipal securities the flat tax the probability of tax reform is proxied by the market price of the shares of steve forbes a champion of the flat tax in the iowa electronic market we find evidence that the indicator of tax reform s prospects was correlated with a decline in the spread on five and ten year maturity bonds although not for 30 year maturity bonds the correlations do not however survive in first difference form suggesting either that forbes prospects did not immediately affect expectations of future tax policy that the correlations are coincidental rather than causal or that the decreased signal to noise ratio obscures a real but small causal relationship

unequal societies income distribution and the social contract this paper develops a theory of inequality and the social contract aiming to explain how countries with similar economic and political fundamentals can sustain such different systems of social insurance fiscal redistribution and education finance as those of the united states and western europe with imperfect credit and insurance markets some redistributive policies can improve ex ante welfare and this implies that their political support tends to decrease with inequality conversely with credit constraints lower redistribution translates into more persistent inequality hence the potential for multiple steady states with mutually reinforcing high inequality and low redistribution or vice versa

redistributing income under proportional representation although majoritarian decision rules are the norm in legislatures relatively few democracies use simple majority rule at the electoral stage adopting instead some form of multiparty proportional representation moreover aggregate data suggest that average income tax rates are higher and distributions of posttax income flatter in countries with proportional representation than in those with majority rule while there are other differences between these countries this paper explores how variations in the political system per se influence equilibrium redistributive tax rates and income distributions a three party proportional representation model is developed in which taxes are determined through legislative bargaining among successful electoral parties and the economic decision for individuals is occupational choice political economic equilibria for this model and for a two party winner take all majoritarian system are derived and compared

agricultural technology risk and gender a cge analysis of mozambique abstract interactions between agricultural technology improvements risk reducing behavior and gender roles in agricultural production in mozambique are examined the analysis employs a computable general equilibrium cge model that explicitly incorporates key features of the economy these include detailed accounting of marketing margins home consumption risk and gender roles in agricultural production our results show that agricultural technology improvements benefit both male and female occupants of rural households due to economic interactions agricultural technology improvements are particularly compelling when combined with marketing system improvements moreover technological change in cassava appears to be a particularly strong lever for increasing female and overall household welfare especially when risk is considered

do risk aversion and wages explain educational choices abstract we study a model in which a student s investment in education maximizes expected utility conditional on public and private information the model takes future wage risk into account and treats the direct and opportunity costs of education as additional sources of risk in particular the time needed to complete a degree is random the data show that time to degree is substantially dispersed conditional on the highest degree we find significant and substantial effects of expected returns on individual education choices the risk affecting education costs and in particular the randomness of time to degree also plays an important role in explaining enrollment in higher education we find precise estimates of the crra risk aversion parameter between 0 6 and 0 9 heterogeneity in risk attitudes is significant even in sub populations the sons of professionals bear more risk and are more risk averse than the rest of the sample yet they study more because of higher returns and markedly lower expected investment costs simulations show a strong impact of changes in the probability of grade retention on educational achievement

balanced budget redistribution as the outcome of political competition this paper models balanced budget redistribution between socio economic groups as the outcome of electoral competition between two political parties equilibrium is unique in the present model and a sufficient condition for existence is given requiring that there be enough stochastic heterogeneity with respect to party preferences in the electorate the validity of hotelling s principle of minimum differentiation and of director s law are examined under alternative hypotheses concerning administrative costs of redistributions and voter s possibilities both of abstaining from voting and of becoming campaign activists for one of the parties the policy strategy of expected plurality maximization is contrasted with the strategy of maximizing the probability of gaining a plurality incomes are fixed and known so lump sum taxation is feasible however constraints on tax transfer differentiation between individuals are permitted in the analysis

social mobility and redistributive politics just like economists voters have conflicting views about redistributive taxation because they estimate its incentive costs differently we model rational agents as trying to learn from their dynastic income mobility experience the relative importance of effort and predetermined factors in the generation of income inequality and therefore the magnitude of these incentive costs in the long run left wing dynasties believing less in individual effort and voting for more redistribution coexist with right wing dynasties this allows us to explain why individual mobility experience and not only current income matters for political attiitudes and how persistent differences in perceptions about social mobility can generate persistent differences in redistribution across countries

macroanalysis of the economic and environmental impacts of a 2005 2025 european union bioenergy policy using the gtap model and life cycle assessment abstract this paper describes a new tool to assess the medium and long term economic and environmental impacts of large scale policies the approach macro life cycle assessment m lca is based on life cycle assessment methodology and includes additional elements to model economic externalities and the temporal evolution of background parameters the general equilibrium model gtap was therefore used to simulate the economic consequences of policies in a dynamic framework representing the temporal evolution of macroeconomic and technological parameters environmental impacts expressed via four indicators human health ecosystems global warming and natural resources are computed according to policy life cycle and its indirect economic consequences in order to illustrate the approach two 2005 2025 european union eu energy policies were compared using m lca the first policy the bioenergy policy aims to significantly increase energy generation from biomass and reduce eu energy demand for coal the second policy the baseline policy is a business as usual policy where year 2000 energy policies are extended to 2025 results show that compared to the baseline policy the bioenergy policy generates fewer impacts on three of the four environmental indicators human health global warming and natural resources at the world and eu scales though the results may differ significantly at a regional level the results also highlight the key contribution of economic growth to the total environmental impacts computed for the 2005 2025 period a comparison of the results with a more conventional consequential lca approach illustrates the benefits of m lca when modeling the indirect environmental impacts of large scale policies the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis indicates that the method is quite robust however its robustness must still be evaluated based on the sensitivity and uncertainty of additional parameters including the evolution of economic growth

a new data set measuring income inequality this article presents a new data set on inequality in the distribution of income the authors explain the criteria they applied in selecting data on gini coefficients and on individual quintile groups income shares comparison of the new data set with existing compilations reveals that the data assembled here represent an improvement in quality and a significant expansion in coverage although differences in the definition of the underlying data might still affect inter temporal and international comparability based on this new data set the authors do not find a systematic link between growth and changes in aggregate inequality they do find a strong positive relationship between growth and reduction of poverty

policy uncertainty electoral securities and redistribution this paper investigates how uncertainty about the adoption of a redistribution policy affects political support for redistribution when individuals can trade policy contingent securities in the stock market we show that the demand for redistribution is always smaller than in the case where no policy insurance market is available consistent with the empirical evidence our analysis implies that in economies with well developed financial markets the level of redistribution decreases with the level of participation in these markets and with income inequality we show that the existence of a policy insurance market may increase future expected inequality even if a majority of individuals are redistributing resources through private transfers

comparative politics and public finance we propose a model with micropolitical foundations to contrast different political regimes compared to a parliamentary regime the institutions of a presidential congressional regime produce fewer incentives for legislative cohesion but more separation of powers these differences are reflected in the size and composition of government spending a parliamentary regime has redistribution toward a majority less underprovision of public goods and more rents to politicians a presidential congressional regime has redistribution toward powerful minorities more underprovision of public goods but less rents to politicians the size of government is smaller under a presidential regime this last prediction is consistent with cross country data

social mobility and the demand for redistribution the poum hypothesis this paper examines the often stated idea that the poor do not support high levels of redistribution because of the hope that they or their offspring may make it up the income ladder this prospect of upward mobility poum hypothesis is shown to be fully compatible with rational expectations and fundamentally linked to concavity in the mobility process a steady state majority could even be simultaneously poorer than average in terms of current income and richer than average in terms of expected future incomes a e rst empirical assessment suggests on the other hand that in recent u s data the poum effect is probably dominated by the demand for social insurance in the future everyone will be world famous for e fteen minutes andy warhol 1968

the impact of rising ethanol production on the brazilian market for basic food commodities an econometric assessment the controversial debate on the impacts of rising biofuel production on food commodity markets is of great policy relevance in brazil this paper contributes to the discussion by applying panel data regression models with fixed effects using ols our dataset comprises annual production harvested area data for sugar ethanol and five other staple commodities ranging from 1981 to 2009 for 24 brazilian states our results indicate that rising ethanol production exerts statistically significant positive impacts on sugarcane negative impacts on rice beans and soybeans acreage but no statistically significant effect on the areas for corn and manioc the negative impacts on commodities acreage have implications for the associated prices ceteris paribus rising ethanol production puts some upward pressure on the prices for rice beans and soybeans however the economic implication of these direct land use effects is attenuated due to the moderate scale of any effect

the demand for ethanol as a gasoline substitute abstract this paper estimates household preferences for ethanol e85 as a gasoline e10 substitute i develop a theoretical model linking the shape of the ethanol demand curve to the underlying distribution among households of willingness to pay for ethanol i estimate the model using instrumental variables techniques and data from many retail fueling stations i find that a 0 10 per gallon increase in ethanol s price relative to gasoline leads to a 12 16 decrease in the quantity of ethanol demanded my findings imply that preferences for ethanol are heterogeneous and that a substantial fraction of households are willing to pay a premium for the fuel this reduces substantially the simulated efficiency cost of an ethanol content standard since some households choose ethanol without large subsidies mitigating deadweight losses

sustainable and integrated bioenergy assessment for latin america caribbean and africa sibyl lacaf the path from feasibility to acceptability abstract uncertainties in evaluating bioenergy projects have lead policymakers to adopt a restrictive approach or even refuse to evaluate projects when the available information is limited or a clear perception of its benefits and impact is lacking indeed despite its potential advantages a bioenergy system poses several conceptual and operational challenges for academic as well as practical scrutiny because the inherent relationship and the intersection of areas related to energy production and agricultural activity requires a deeply integrated assessment the aim of this paper is to review the available works in this field and propose an approach for supporting policymakers in the taking decision process of deploying sustainable bioenergy systems the sibyl lacaf framework provides a comprehensive framework for addressing the inherent complexity of the subject and its sustainability and acceptability as part of the evaluation process with this approach different and complementary evaluation methods are reviewed and set in a logical and sequential structure to draw a group of indicators used for assessing a given project with the help of a strengths weaknesses opportunities and threats swot matrix when acceptability is identified as an issue a public consultation and communication pc c scheme can complement this process the suggested application for mozambique indicate that an acceptable outcome is possible even when considering the data requirements and constraints of developing countries thus the potential of this integrated approach outweighs such limitations

forecasting fuel ethanol consumption in brazil by time series models 2006 2012 this article analysed scenarios for brazilian consumption of ethanol for the period 2006 to 2012 the results show that if the country s gdp sustains a 4 6 a year growth domestic consumption of fuel ethanol could increase to 25 16 billion liters in this period which is a volume relatively close to the forecasted gasoline consumption of 31 billion liters at a lower gdp growth of 1 22 a year gasoline consumption would be reduced and domestic ethanol consumption in brazil would be no higher than 18 32 billion liters contrary to the current situation forecasts indicated that hydrated ethanol consumption could become much higher than anhydrous consumption in brazil the former is being consumed in cars moved exclusively by ethanol and flex fuel cars successfully introduced in the country at 2003 flex cars allow brazilian consumers to choose between gasoline and hydrated ethanol and immediately switch to whichever fuel presents the most favourable relative price

brownfield entry in emerging markets this paper focuses on the brown field entry mode as a special case of acquisition in which the resources transferred by the investor dominate over those provided by the acquired firm we see this mode as having particular relevance for entry strategies in emerging markets the choice of entry mode is analyzed on the basis of a framework utilizing both resource based and transaction cost theories the resource requirements have to be matched with resources available to the investor through an acquired firm and the decision has to account for the costs of acquiring and integrating the resources

developing a sustainability framework for the assessment of bioenergy systems the potential for biomass to contribute to energy supply in a low carbon economy is well recognised however for the sector to contribute fully to sustainable development in the uk specific exploitation routes must meet the three sets of criteria usually recognised as representing the tests for sustainability economic viability in the market and fiscal framework within which the supply chain operates environmental performance including but not limited to low carbon dioxide emissions over the complete fuel cycle and social acceptability with the benefits of using biomass recognised as outweighing any negative social impacts this paper describes an approach to developing a methodology to establish a sustainability framework for the assessment of bioenergy systems to provide practical advice for policy makers planners and the bioenergy industry and thus to support policy development and bioenergy deployment at different scales the approach uses multi criteria decision analysis mcda and decision conferencing to explore how such a process is able to integrate and reconcile the interests and concerns of diverse stakeholder groups

electoral competition and special interest politics have fixed positions on some issues but vary their positions on others in order to attract votes and campaign contributions in this context we examine whether special interest groups are governed by an electoral motive or an influence in their campaign giving and how their contributions affect the equilibrium platforms we show that each party is induced to behave as if it were maximizing a weighted sum of the aggregate welfares of informed voters and members of special interest groups the party that is expected to win a majority of seats caters more to the special interests

trading and voting complete financial markets transform the political choice between candidates with different redistribution policies if redistribution policies do not affect aggregate wealth then financial trade implies that wealth considerations have no effect on voting and so do not affect who wins however an election in which one candidate would redistribute results in redistribution and redistribution is the same whether or not he wins furthermore he proposes and if elected carries out more redistribution than he prefers if redistribution policies do affect aggregate wealth then everybody expects more wealth if the candidate with the higher aggregate wealth policy wins

can we insure against political uncertainty evidence from the u s stock market i show that shares currently traded on u s stock markets can be used to hedge political uncertainty focusing on the 2000 u s presidential election i construct two presidential portfolios composed of selected stocks anticipated to fare differently under a bush versus a gore presidency to construct these portfolios i use data on campaign contributions by publicly traded corporations and identify the major contributors on each side using daily observations for the six months before the election took place i show that the excess returns of these portfolios with respect to overall market movements are significantly related to changes in electoral polls

biofuel developments in mozambique update and analysis of policy potential and reality abstract climate change rising oil prices and concerns about future energy supplies have contributed to a growing interest in using biomass for energy purposes several studies have highlighted the biophysical potential of biofuel production on the african continent and analysts see mozambique as one of the most promising african countries favorable growing conditions and the availability of land water and labor are mentioned as major drivers behind this potential moreover the potential of biofuel production to generate socio economic benefits is reflected in the government s policy objectives for the development of the sector such as reducing fuel import dependency and creating rural employment this article provides an overview of biofuel developments in mozambique and explores to what extent reality matches the suggested potential in the country we conclude that biofuel developments mainly take place in areas near good infrastructure processing and storage facilities where there is skilled labor available and access to services and goods moreover our analysis shows the need to timely harmonize current trends in biofuel developments with the government s policy objectives as the majority of existing and planned projects are not focusing on remote rural areas and in absence of domestic markets principally target external markets

modelling approaches for consequential life cycle assessment c lca of bioenergy critical review and proposed framework for biogas production abstract conventional life cycle inventories lcis are static models not considering any mechanism of revenue maximisation and price equilibrium under external constraints an additional demand of a given commodity irrespective of the amount can always be supplied by the average supplier under fully elastic market assumption this constitutes a recognised limitation for the application of lca to the assessment of the environmental consequences of changes applied to complex systems like agro systems in the so called consequential lci c lci the relationships between the activities and processes of a life cycle are no longer seen as essentially technical connections based on average data instead the determining socio economic mechanisms are considered via market information and eventually economic models partial or computable general equilibrium the practical implementation of c lci is however still obscure to many practitioners and the complementarities and overlaps between the different c lci modelling approaches have not been completely clarified so far this paper aims at filling this gap the first part of the paper provides a survey of a number of applications using different equilibrium models afterwards we critically review the main variables and parameters supporting the definition and implementation of the c lci modelling approaches in the last part of the paper we propose a methodology to integrate economic modelling and lca in order to perform a c lca of biogas production specifically addressing the indirect land use change iluc issue finally we describe the application of this methodology to a case study dealing with the production of biogas in luxembourg

inequality and redistribution revisited abstract as inequality rises taxation can be less efficient in the sense that a given tax rate produces a smaller tax base if this tax base effect outweighs the conventional political effect then increasing inequality can induce less public spending or redistribution contrarily to alesina and rodrik and persson and tabellini