credit natural disasters coffee and educational attainment in rural honduras summary this paper exploits a two stage estimation approach to examine the impact on secondary school attainment in rural honduras of four key variables affecting household choices wealth credit access crop choice and shocks the first stage estimates the probability that a household is credit constrained while the second estimates secondary school educational attainment of appropriately aged children the second stage includes variables for crop selection and household wealth shocks from hurricane mitch in addition to other characteristics of the child household and community that can influence educational attainment credit constrained households have lower educational attainment and are more likely to be adversely affected by negative shocks

how efficiently is capital allocated evidence from the knitted garment industry in tirupur this paper studies the effect of community identity on investment behaviour in the knitted garment industry in the south indian town of tirupur we document very large and systematic differences in both levels of capital stock and the capital intensity of production in firms owned by people from two different community groups we argue that the differences in investment cannot be explained by productivity differences alone we suggest that the most likely explanation is that the two communities differ in their access to capital

investor protection and equity markets we present a simple model of an entrepreneur going public in an environment with poor legal protection of outside shareholders the model incorporates elements of becker s j political econ 106 1968 172 crime and punishment framework into a corporate finance environment of jensen and meckling j financial econ 3 1976 305 we examine the entrepreneur s decision and the market equilibrium the model is consistent with a number of empirical regularities concerning the relation between investor protection and corporate finance it also sheds light on the patterns of capital flows between rich and poor countries and on the politics of reform of investor protection r 2002 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

the role of multilateral institutions in international trade cooperation the world trade organization wfo lacks the power to directly enforce agreements it is therefore important to understand what role the wto can play to facilitate international cooperation and whether a multilateral institution can offer distinct advantages over a web of bilateral agreements this paper examines two potential benefits of a multilateral trade institution first verifying violations of the agreements and informing third parties thus facilitating multilateral reputation mechanisms second promoting multilateral trade negotiations rather than a web of bilateral negotiations the model suggests that a multilateral approach is particularly important when there are strong imbalances in bilateral trading relationships

the quantitative analytics of the basic neomonetarist model this paper constructs a dynamic macroeconomic model with less than perfect price flexibility which has a classical side consistent with real business cycle theory augmented by investment adjustment costs increasing returns to scale and a new flexible formalization of imperfect competition something akin to the classical dichotomy is justified by a mode of approximation appropriate for a model in which one state variable adjusts quickly while another state variable adjusts slowly even with investment adjustment costs monetary expansions are found to raise the real interest rate the determinants of real rigidity and the macroeconomic rate of price adjustment are investigated copyright 1995 by ohio state university press

real rigidities and the non neutrality of money rigidities in real prices are not sufficient to create rigidities in nominal prices and real effects of nominal shocks and by themselves small frictions in nominal adjustment such as costs of changing prices create only small non neutralities but this paper shows that substantial nominal rigidity can arise from a combination of real rigidities and small nominal frictions the paper shows the connection between real and nominal rigidity given the presence of nominal frictions both in general and for two specific sources of real rigidity one arising from goods market imperfections and the other from labour market imperfections

multilateralism bilateralism and exclusion in the nuclear proliferation regime i use the nuclear proliferation regime to show that dyadic diplomacy is not necessarily incompatible with the building of a multilateral regime bilateralism is not the opposite of multilateralism but an efficient component thereof although this point will not be new to most students of institutions no general rationale has so far been offered on the complementarity of bilateral and multilateral diplomacy start ing from a characterization of proliferation as the result of a large number of prisoner s dilemmas played out between states engaged in local dyadic rivalries i demonstrate that it is possible for the superpowers to design an optimal mix of threats and bribes in which states with low compliance costs join the regime on the terms of the multi lateral treaty alone states with intermediate compliance costs need additional cus tomized incentives delivered through bilateral agreements and states with high compliance costs are not only left out of the regime but also punished for nonpartici pation i draw a few comparative statics that i systematically test on nuclear prolif eration treaty npt membership data i discuss the applicability of the model to the currency trade and aid regimes

does globalization increase child labor abstract there is no empirical evidence that trade exposure per se increases child labor as trade theory and household economics lead us to expect the crosscountry evidence seems to indicate that trade reduces or at worst has no significant effect on child labor consistently with the theory a comparatively well educated labor force and active social policies appear to be conducive to a reduction in child labor for countries with a largely uneducated workforce the problem is not so much globalization as not being allowed to take part in it

agricultural household models extensions applications and policy this book presents the basic model of an agricultural household that underlies most of the case studies undertaken so far the model assumes that households are price takers and is therefore recursive the decisions modeled include those affecting production and the demand for inputs and those affecting consumption and the supply of labor comparative results on selected elasticities are presented for a number of economies the empirical significance of the approach is demonstrated in a comparison of models that treat production and consumption decisions separately and those in which the decisionmaking process is recursive the book summarizes the implications of agricultural pricing policy for the welfare of farm households marketed surplus the demand for nonagricultural goods and services the rural labor market budget revenues and foreign exchange earnings in addition it is shown that the basic model can be extended in order to explore the effects of government policy on crop composition nutritional status health saving and investment and to provide a more comprehensive analysis of the effects on budget revenues and foreign exchange earnings methodological topics primarily the data requirements of the basic model and its extensions along with aggregation market interaction uncertainty and market imperfections are discussed the most important methodological issues the question of the recursive property of these models is also discussed

endogenous market structures in the credit market and ricardian equivalence we analyze the impact of imperfect competition in banking on fiscal policy in a dynamic model in an exchange two period economy the impact of deficit spending is to reduce private consumption and increase the spread between deposit and lending rates the reason is that a tax cut forces consumers to save more and makes their supply of savings more rigid which softens competition between banks leading to lower rates on deposits and a more than proportional increase in savings in a closed production economy this reduces the equilibrium interest rate on borrowers which promotes private investment

an ols approach to computing ramsey equilibria in medium scale macroeconomic models abstract this note describes a general procedure for solving for the steady state and the dynamics implied by the ramsey equilibrium of medium scale macroeconomic models the procedure yields an exact numerical solution for the steady state and second order accurate dynamics it introduces a novel projection based approach to calculating exact solutions to the steady state of ramsey equilibria

on measuring child costs with applications to poor countries the theoretical basis for measuring child costs is discussed and detailed consideration is given to two straightforward procedures for calculation engel s food share method and rothbarth s adult good method each of these methods embodies different definitions of child costs so that the same empirical evidence can generate quite different estimates depending on the method used it is shown that true costs are generally overstated by engel s method and understated by rothbarth s procedure although the latter unlike the former can provide a sensible starting point for cost measurement our estimates from sri lankan and indonesian data suggest that children cost their parents about 30 40 percent of what they spend on themselves

input choices in agriculture is there a gender bias summary this paper examines evidence of gender biases in the decisions of agricultural households utilizing data from international crops research institute for the semi arid tropics s village level studies in india 1975 85 the main empirical finding is that households with a high proportion of boys tend to use some agricultural inputs including fertilizers and irrigation services more intensively than households with girls this pattern is more pronounced among wealthier households but does not appear to be driven solely by bequest motives or male child labor productivity

quality quantity and spatial variation of price this paper develops and implements a method for estimating price elasticities of demand using cross sectional household survey data geographically clustered households report unit values which when corrected for quality effects and for measurement error indicate the underlying spatial variation in prices and can be matched to variation in demand patterns a simple model of quality choice is proposed while the correction for measurement error exploits the clustered design of such surveys data from a 1979 household survey from the ivory coast are used to estimate price elasticities for beef meat fish cereals and starches copyright 1988 by american economic association

dynamic input decisions in econometric production models this study develops an econometric methodology for estimating dynamic production models with sequential intermediate input decisions two problems arise in the study of intermediate inputs intermediate input decisions may be endogenous to final output and intermediate inputs are likely to be correlated with each other and other variables making identification and estimation difficult the econometric model measures the productivity of intermediate inputs taking into account the farmer s sequential input decisions and input productivity differences during the growing season a multistage cobb douglas model of wheat response to irrigation water is used to illustrate the proposed methods

agriculture in africa telling myths from facts a synthesis stylized facts drive research agendas and policy debates yet robust stylized facts are hard to come by and when available often outdated in a special issue of food policy 12 papers revisit conventional wisdom on african agriculture and its farmers livelihoods using nationally representative surveys from the living standards measurement study integrated surveys on agriculture initiative in six african countries at times the findings simply confirm the common understanding of the topic but the studies also throw up several surprises redirecting some policy debates while fine tuning others overall the project calls for more attention to checking and updating the common wisdom this requires nationally representative data and sufficient incentives among researchers and policy makers alike without well grounded stylized facts they can easily be profoundly misguided

new keynesian phillips curve with bertrand competition and endogenous entry abstract we derive a new keynesian phillips curve under calvo staggered pricing and endogenous market structures with bertrand competition both strategic interactions and endogenous business creation strengthen the nominal rigidities price adjusters change their prices less when there are more direct competitors that do not adjust which reduces the slope of the phillips curve current and future firms entering in the markets decrease current inflation because they reduce markups and the welfare based price index endogenous entry amplifies the impact of both monetary and supply shocks we also characterize the optimal social planner allocation that can be replicated with a labor subsidy and a dividend tax both decreasing in the number of firms and zero producer price inflation the optimal ramsey allocation implies zero inflation tax in steady state

estimating labor supply and production decisions of self employed farm producers abstract this paper proposes a model oriented towards integrating farm households production and consumption decisions into a unified theoretical and econometric framework it is argued that in contrast with other forms of economic organization farm households utility and profit maximization decisions are not likely to be independent econometric estimation of a farm household model using canadian data suggests that utility and profit maximizing decisions are not indeed independent and moreover that there are significant gains in explanatory power and efficiency by estimating the consumption and production equations jointly

nominal price rigidity money supply endogeneity and business cycles abstract this paper investigates the ability of nominal price rigidity to explain the co movement of inflation with the cyclical component of output observed in the post war u s data a dynamic general equilibrium model is constructed with the introduction of monopolistic competition and nominal price rigidity in a standard real business cycle model allowing for an endogenous money supply rule it is then demonstrated that sticky price models can explain the observed associations between movements in inflation and output much better than flexible price models this result depends little on whether money supply is assumed to be endogenous or not

health and agricultural productivity evidence from zambia we evaluate the productivity effects of investment in preventive health technology through a randomized controlled trial in rural zambia in the experiment access to subsidized bed nets was randomly assigned at the community level 516 farmers were followed over a one year farming period we find large positive effects of preventative health investment on productivity among farmers provided with access to free nets harvest value increased by us 76 corresponding to about 14 7 of the average output value while only limited information was collected on farming inputs shifts in the extensive and the intensive margins of labor supply appear to be the most likely mechanism underlying the productivity improvements observed

implications of state dependent pricing for dynamic macroeconomic models abstract state dependent pricing sdp models treat the timing of price changes as a profit maximizing choice symmetrically with other decisions of firms using quantitative general equilibrium models which incorporate a generalized s s approach we investigate the implications of sdp for topics in two major areas of macroeconomic research the early 1990s sdp literature and more recent work on persistence mechanisms first we show that state dependent pricing leads to unusual macroeconomic dynamics which occur because of the timing of price adjustments chosen by firms as in the earlier literature in particular we display an example in which output responses peak at about a year while inflation responses peak at about 2 years after the shock second we examine whether the persistence enhancing effects of two new keynesian model features namely specific factor markets and variable elasticity demand curves depend importantly on whether pricing is state dependent in an sdp setting we provide examples in which specific factor markets perversely work to lower persistence while variable elasticity demand raises it

staggered price setting translog preferences and endogenous persistence abstract this paper generates persistent real effects of a monetary disturbance in the context of staggered price setters the model combines two related and reinforcing features a translog demand structure and a particular input output production structure these features offer a rationale why a firm when computing its own optimal contract price is influenced by the prices set in other overlapping contracts practically the two features interact in a positive manner and provide a way to generate significant endogenous persistence

the impact of household income on child labour in urban turkey abstract the aim of this study is to investigate the determinants of child labour in urban turkey with a special reference to low household income or poverty as one of its root causes studies done elsewhere have produced mixed results which necessitate the relationship to be studied at country level the data from urban turkey indicate that children from poorer families stand at a higher risk of employment this finding is confirmed using various measures of household material well being simulation results have further pointed out that current interventions are not likely to produce a sizeable impact on the child labour problem

firm entry markups and the monetary transmission mechanism abstract two business cycle models with endogenous firm and product entry are estimated by matching impulse responses to a monetary policy shock the competition effect implies that entry lowers desired markups and dampens inflation under translog preferences where the substitutability between goods depends on their number we find evidence of such an effect that model generates more countercyclical markups than dixit and stiglitz 1977 monopolistic competition model where price stickiness is the only source of markup fluctuations in contrast a model with strategic interactions between oligopolistic firms cannot generate an empirically relevant competition effect and is statistically equivalent to the dixit stiglitz model

unions power collective bargaining and optimal monetary policy we study ramsey policies and optimal monetary policy rules in a model with sticky prices and unionized labour markets collective wage bargaining and unions monopoly power dampen wage uctuations and amplify employment uctuations relatively to a dnk model the optimal

the global child labor problem what do we know and what can we do the problem of child labor has moved from a matter of regional and national concern to one of international debate and possible global persuasion and policy intervention in crafting policy for mitigating this enormous problem of our times it is important to start with a proper theoretical and empirical understanding of the phenomenon what gives rise to child labor and what are its consequences what interventions might end child labor without hurting children a well meaning but poorly designed policy can exacerbate the poverty in which these laboring children live even leading to starvation the article surveys the large and rapidly growing literature on this subject focusing mainly on the new literature based on modern economic theory and econometrics it also looks at some of the broad policy implications of these new findings with the objective of contributing to better informed discussion and policy design

child labor cause consequence and cure with remarks on international labor standards although the literature on child labor is enormous it lacks a common theoretical foundation in this paper analytical survey of this field is provided keeping in mind that this is an area where the primary reason for theorizing is ultimately to influence policy overall it is noted that the literature on child labor is an illustration of abundance and anarchy although empirical writings on child labor are numerous they are not usually founded on theory it is argued that there is much that can be done in curbing the issue of child labor several theories were studied in this paper including collaborative intervention such efforts include public action which alters the economic environment such that the parents of their own accord prefer to withdraw the child from labor force another strategy involves the government a legal intervention is enforcing a total ban on the subject although such interventions have good intentions some of them may not be feasible in general it is better to take economy wide measures against child labor and if there is to be a sector specific ban it should be based on the working conditions of that sector rather than the destination of the goods

crop choice school participation and child labor in developing countries cotton expansion in burkina faso we estimate the effects of changes in cotton adoption on children s schooling and child labor in rural burkina faso using time and spatial variations we find evidence that expansion of cotton farming has led to an increase in enrollment and to a reduction of participation in child labor for girls there are however no detectable effects on boys in theory cotton adoption could increase household income leading to increased demand for schooling and reduced child labor on the other hand because children are productive on cotton farms adoption of cotton could increase the opportunity cost of child time and the demand for child labor we provide suggestive evidence showing that boys are more productive than girls on cotton farms taken together the results suggest that the income effect from cotton adoption might have been larger than the wage effect for girls hence the overall positive impacts on school enrollment for girls

child labour and resistance to change we study the interaction between technological innovation investment in human capital and child labour in a two stage game first firms decide on innovation then households decide on education in equilibrium the presence of inefficient child labour depends on parameters related to technology parents altruism and the diffusion of firms property child labour is due either to firms reluctance to innovate or to households unwillingness to educate or both in some cases compulsory schooling laws or a ban on child labour are welfare reducing whereas a subsidy for innovation is the right tool to eliminate child labour and increase welfare

endogenous market structures and the business cycle we propose a flexible prices model where endogenous market structures and search and matching frictions in the labor market interact endogenously the interplay between firms endogenous entry strategic interactions among producers and labor market frictions represents a strong amplification channel of technology shocks on labor market variables and helps addressing the unemployment volatility puzzle consistently with u s evidence new firms create a large fraction of new jobs and grow faster than more mature firms net firms entry is procyclical and the price mark up is countercyclical

the effect of a common currency on the volatility of the extensive margin of trade abstract this paper studies the effects of the european monetary unification on the volatility of the extensive margin of trade first we highlight empirical novel facts about the effects of monetary unification we build country level measures of the extensive margin of intra emu exports and describe how their volatilities evolved over time we show that the adoption of a common currency has been associated with an increase of the volatility of the extensive margin of exports for most countries and a decrease in the volatility of the extensive margin of exports for germany second we address this question theoretically and build a two country version of the model of ghironi and melitz 2005 with endogenous entry heterogenous firms endogenous tradability endogenous labor supply and sticky prices we compare the volatility of the extensive margin of trade under fixed exchange rates and in a monetary union monetary unification does imply an increase in the volatility of the extensive margin of trade for pre emu followers such as france or the netherlands and a decrease in the volatility of the extensive margin of trade for the leader germany this pattern is qualitatively consistent with the data but arises only if monetary policy responds moderately to output

the problem of population and growth a review of the literature from malthus to contemporary models of endogenous population and endogenous growth abstract this paper deals with the evolution of the literature on the problem of population and growth from the classical period to the recent literature on endogenous growth and development the problem concerns two distinct issues 1 how to explain the observed covariation of the levels and rates of growth of per capita income and population size over time and space and 2 how to improve the human condition represented by these variables through an accommodating social policy the evolution of the literature we survey is reflected by the progressive treatment of key variables as endogenous rather than exogenous to the growth process it is also reflected by a shift from the historical concern about population explosion and its implications for growth to the more recent concern about the association between growth and population implosion in many developed countries

inflation stabilization and welfare the case of a distorted steady state this paper considers the appropriate stabilization objectives for monetary policy in a microfounded model with staggered price setting rotemberg and woodford 1997 and woodford 2002 have shown that under certain conditions a local approximation to the expected utility of the representative household in a model of this kind is related inversely to the expected discounted value of a conventional quadratic loss function in which each period s loss is a weighted average of squared deviations of inflation and an output gap measure from their optimal values zero however those derivations rely on an assumption of the existence of an output or employment subsidy that offsets the distortion due to the market power of monopolistically competitive price setters so that the steady state under a zero inflation policy involves an efficient level of output here we show how to dispense with this unappealing assumption so that a valid linear quadratic approximation to the optimal policy problem is possible even when the steady state is distorted to an arbitrary extent allowing for tax distortions as well as market power and when as a consequence it is necessary to take account of the effects of stabilization policy on the average level of output we again obtain a welfare theoretic loss function that involves both inflation and an appropriately defined output gap though the degree of distortion of the steady state affects both the weights on the two stabilization objectives and the definition of the welfare relevant output gap in the light of these results we reconsider the conditions under which complete price stability is optimal and find that they are more restrictive in the case of a distorted steady state we also consider the conditions under which pure randomization of monetary policy can be welfare improving and find that this is possible in the case of a sufficiently distorted steady state though the parameter values required are probably not empirically realistic

optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital abstract this paper is concerned with the structure and time consistency of optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital in a dynamic context optimal taxation means distributing tax distortions over time in a welfare maximizing way for a barter economy our main finding is that with debt commitments of sufficiently rich maturity structure an optimal policy if one exists is time consistent in a monetary economy the idea of optimal taxation must be broadened to include an inflation tax and we find that time consistency does not carry over an optimal inflation tax requires commitment by rules in a sense that has no counterpart in the dynamic theory of ordinary excise taxes the reason time consistency fails in a monetary economy is that nominal assets should from a welfare maximizing point of view always be taxed away via an immediate inflation in a kind of capital levy this emerges as a new possibility when money is introduced into an economy without capital

optimal simple and implementable monetary and fiscal rules welfare maximizing monetary and fiscal policy rules are studied in a model with sticky prices money and distortionary taxation the ramsey optimal policy is used as a point of comparison the main findings are the size of the inflation coefficient in the interest rate rule plays a minor role for welfare it matters only insofar as it affects the determinacy of equilibrium optimal monetary policy features a muted response to output interest rate rules that feature a positive response to output can lead to significant welfare losses the welfare gains from interest rate smoothing are negligible optimal fiscal policy is passive the optimal monetary and fiscal rule combination attains virtually the same level of welfare as the ramsey optimal policy

demographic variables in demand analysis in this paper the authors discuss five procedures for incorporating demographic variables into theoretically plausible demand systems translating scaling and the gorman reverse gorman and implicit prais houthakker procedures these five procedures are used to incorporate a single demographic variable the number of children in a household into the generalized ces demand system using household budget data for the united kingdom for the period 1966 1972 excerpt

new issues in the uruguay round and beyond the general agreement on tariffs and trade gatt is a treaty establishing a framework of rules and principles for policies affecting merchandise trade it also provides a forum in which sovereign states periodically engage in reciprocal trade liberalisation and rule making 2 as a result of substantial reductions in tariffs through periodic rounds of multilateral negotiations rule making has gradually become as if not more important than liberalisation per se starting with the kennedy round i964 7 but especially in the tokyo i973 9 and uruguay i986 rounds an increasing number of agenda items involved the negotiation of rules and disciplines for specific trade related domestic policies rather than further reductions in tariffs and other border measures rules pertaining to product standards subsidies and government procurement were prominent items on the agenda of the tokyo round the uruguay round further expanded the multilateral negotiating agenda by adding trade related investment measures trims trade related intellectual property rights trips and measures affecting the contestability of service markets the trend for multilateral trade negotiations to address domestic policies shows no sign of abating calls for a post uruguay round negotiation have identified issues such as competition policy foreign direct investment fdi regulations innovation policies and the interaction between trade and environmental policies as possible topics for discussion 3 in part the steady agenda expansion reflects changes in the structure of the global economy the managerial and technological innovations of the last decade such as just in time inventory management and the increased tradeability of services created pressures for greater specialisation and geographical splintering of production this in turn made regulations pertaining to services fdi transfer of technology and protection of intangible assets more important for both governments and firms flows associated with services fdi and intellectual property ip are smaller than merchandise trade but are quite substantial table i reveals that global merchandise trade in i990 was 3 5 trillion while world trade in commercial services was about 820 billion global receipts for ip were some 33 billion and income flows

five facts about prices a reevaluation of menu cost models are price decreases 3 the frequency of price increases covaries strongly with inflation whereas the frequency of price decreases and the size of price increases and price decreases do not 4 the frequency of price change is highly seasonal it is highest in the first quarter and then declines 5 we find no evidence of upwardsloping hazard functions of price changes for individual products we show that the first second and third facts are consistent with a benchmark menu cost model whereas the fourth and fifth facts are not

gatt safeguards and voluntary export restraints what are the interests of developing countries introduction trade in services and the multilateral trade negotiations agriculture in the uruguay round interests of developing countries gatt law agricultural trade and developing countries lessons from two case studies textiles and clothing in a new round of trade negotiations differential and more favorable treatment of developing countries and the international trading system balance of payments and related issues in the uruguay round of trade negotiations gatt safeguards and voluntary exports restraints what are the interests of developing countries international control of subsidies and countervailing duties export promoting subsidies countervailing threats and the general agreement on tariffs and trade

ramsey monetary policy with labor market frictions abstract traditional new keynesian models prescribe that optimal monetary policy should aim at price stability in the absence of a labor market frictions the monetary authority faces no unemployment inflation trade off the design of optimal monetary policy is analyzed here for a framework with sticky prices and matching frictions in the labor market optimal policy features deviations from price stability in response to both productivity and government expenditure shocks when the hosios 1990 on the efficiency of matching and related models of search and unemployment review of economic studies 57 2 279 298 condition is not met search externalities make the flexible price allocation unfeasible optimal deviations from price stability increase with workers bargaining power as firms incentives to post vacancies fall and unemployment fluctuates above the pareto efficient one

trend inflation and firms price setting rotemberg versus calvo we compare the calvo and rotemberg price setting mechanisms in a new keynesian model with trend inflation we show that the long run relationship between inflation and output is positive in rotemberg and negative in calvo the dynamics of the two models differ even to a first order approximation positive trend inflation enlarges the determinacy region in the rotemberg model whereas it shrinks it in the calvo model the responses of output and inflation to technology shocks are amplified by trend inflation in calvo whereas they are dampened in rotemberg the two models imply differing non linear adjustments after a disinflation

optimal monetary policy with relative price distortions this paper analyzes optimal monetary policy in a sticky price model with calvo type staggered price setting in the paper the optimal monetary policy maximizes the expected utility of a representative household without having to rely on a set of linearly approximated equilibrium conditions given the distortions associated with the staggered price setting it shows that the complete stabilization of the price level is optimal in the absence of initial price dispersion while optimal inflation targets respond to changes in the level of relative price distortion in the presence of initial price dispersion

determinants of food consumption in rural sierra leone abstract this paper reports the application of a quadratic expenditure system with demographic variables to the household consumption leisure choice component of a household firm model a system of seven commodities is estimated including five foods non food and leisure appropriate for such a level of disaggregation a demand system is used the quadratic expenditure system which allows for a flexible relationship between full income and commodity expenditures without sacrificing parsimony in parameters demographic data on households are explicitly incorporated into the model allowing for a richer specification than can be achieved by using per capita variables the data are from a cross section survey of households in rural sierra leone price variation exists by region permitting estimation of a complete demand system engel curves are found to be significantly non linear with marginal expenditure on rice the major staple declining with higher income most foods are found to be reasonably price responsive with sizeable own price substitution effects declining with higher income aggregate labor supply is found to be price inelastic

inflation and optimal monetary policy in a model with firm heterogeneity and bertrand competition abstract we study the joint implications of heterogeneity of total factor productivity and strategic price interactions between firms on the dynamics of inflation and the design of optimal monetary policy in this setting more productive firms respond less to shocks affecting their marginal costs than less productive firms as a consequence economies with a larger proportion of highly productive firms face a flatter phillips curve moreover when these two features concur the ramsey problem gives rise to an optimal non zero long run inflation that amplifies the differences in relative prices between more efficient and less efficient firms thus increasing the market share of the former nevertheless in the presence of transitory technology shocks optimal short term deviations from this positive long run inflation are negligible

household composition labor markets and labor demand testing for separation in agricultural household models this paper tests the separation of farm labor supply and labor demand decisions using the observation that household composition is an important determinant of farm labor use with nonseparation after assessing the conditions under which the test has power against several alternatives an empirical model is developed to test the proposition that farm employment is independent of family composition the model is estimated on a data set from rural java the null hypothesis that farm labor allocation decisions are independent of household structure is not rejected the results are robust to different specifications of the labor demand function copyright 1992 by the econometric society

the global child labor problem the problem of child labor has moved from a matter of regional and national concern to one of international debate and possible global persuasion and policy intervention in crafting policy for mitigating this enormous problem of our times it is important to start with a proper theoretical and empirical understanding of the phenomenon what gives rise to child labor and what are its consequences what interventions might end child labor without hurting children a well meaning but poorly designed policy can exacerbate the poverty in which these laboring children live even leading to starvation the article surveys the large and rapidly growing literature on this subject focusing mainly on the new literature based on modern economic theory and econometrics it also looks at some of the broad policy implications of these new findings with the objective of contributing to better informed discussion and policy design

determinants of nonfarm earnings of farm based husbands and wives in northern ghana the nonfarm work participation decisions of married men and women in rural northern ghana were jointly and separately estimated for married couples through a bivariate probit using recent survey data selectivity bias was corrected for in estimating wage offer and labor supply equations using heckman s procedure education experience infrastructure distance to the capital and population density as well as interactions between education and infrastructure and between education and distance to the city were found to be significantly related to the probability of nonfarm labor market participation wages and the amount of nonfarm labor performed with significant differences by gender

intermediate goods and business cycles implications for productivity and welfare this paper presents an aggregate demand driven model of business cycles that provides a new explanation for the procyclicality of productivity and simultaneously predicts large welfare losses from monetary nonneutrality the key features of the model are an input output production structure imperfect competition countercyclical markups and for some results state dependent price rigidity true technical efficiency is procyclical even though production takes place with constant returns without technology shocks or technological externalities the paper has observable implications that distinguish it empirically from related work these implications are generally supported by data from u s manufacturing industries copyright 1995 by american economic association

families and firms agency costs and labor market imperfections in sialkot s surgical industry abstract the family firm is generally viewed as an organizational solution to agency costs in the labor market for managers and institutional underdevelopment consistent with this view this paper links the preponderance of family firms in the surgical instrument industry of sialkot to the prevailing agency and institutional problems however strong dependence on family management coupled with restrictions on family size constrains the firms from optimally choosing management size the resulting labor market distortion is manifested by a significant positive correlation between the founder s family size and the firm size such that the founders who have more brothers a larger pool of potential managers end up with bigger firms

international migration and child labour in developing countries this paper investigates the labor market effect of international migration on child work in countries of origin we use an original cross country survey dataset which combines information on international migration with detailed individual level data on child labour at age 5 14 in a wide range of developing countries by exploiting both within and cross country variation and controlling for country fixed effects we find strong and robust evidence on the role of international mobility of workers in reducing child labour in disadvantaged households through changes in the local labour market

modeling farm households price responses in the presence of transaction costs and heterogeneity in labor markets we develop a farm household model to analyze price responses of farm households this model incorporates various types of transaction costs as well as labor heterogeneity nonproportional variable transaction costs or labor heterogeneity imply that production and consumption decisions become nonseparable even when the household buys or sells labor an empirical model is estimated using data from midwest poland the results show that nonproportional variable transaction costs and labor heterogeneity significantly influence household behavior not all price elasticities however change significantly if these are neglected

sequential decision making in production models single equation estimates of production models usually are justified by the assumption that production inputs are chosen as part of a one period decision problem yet most production decisions in agriculture are made sequentially in this paper the farmer s optimal input choices are modeled as optimal controls in a stochastic control problem a two period cobb douglas example is used to show that sequential solutions to production problems may yield models which require either single equation or simultaneous equation estimators functional separability stochastic specification and behavior under uncertainty are discussed in the context of dynamic production models

optimal monetary policy with endogenous entry and product variety deviations from long run price stability are optimal in the presence of endogenous entry and product variety in a sticky price model in which price stability would be optimal otherwise long run inflation deflation is optimal when the benefit of variety to consumers falls short of exceeds the market incentive for creating that variety the desired markup price indexation exacerbates this mechanism plausible preference specifications and parameter values justify positive long run inflation rates however short run price stability around this non zero trend is close to optimal even in the presence of endogenously time varying desired markups that distort the intertemporal allocation of resources

shadow wages allocative inefficiency and labor supply in smallholder agriculture this article introduces a method for estimating structural labor supply models in the presence of unobservable wages and deviations of households marginal revenue product of self employed labor from their shadow wage this method is therefore robust to a wide range of assumptions about labor allocation decisions in the presence of uncertainty market frictions locational preferences etc we illustrate the method using data from rice producers in cote d ivoire these data like previous studies reveal significant systematic differences between shadow wages and the marginal revenue product of family farm labor we demonstrate how one can exploit systematic deviations in the present case related to household characteristics such as the land labor endowment ratio to control for both unobservable wages and prospective allocative inefficiency in labor allocation in structural household labor supply estimation

the trade off between child labour and human capital formation a tanzanian case study we investigate the degree to which there is a trade off between child labour and human capital formation using time log data of children from a tanzanian household survey we find that a tradeoff between hours of work and study exists and hours of work tend to be more affected by social conditions than hours of study hours of work are negatively correlated to reading and mathematical skills through the reduction of human capital investment activities indicating a trade off between child labour and human capital the results point up the complexity of the issue and the need for detailed time allocation data

oligopolistic competition and optimal monetary policy abstract this paper studies optimal monetary policy in a dsge model with supply side strategic complementarity as arising from oligopolistic competition and nominal rigidities firms oligopolistic rents induce inefficient fluctuations through both intra temporal and intertemporal time varying wedges optimality requires the use of state contingent inflation taxes to smooth and reduce firms rents hence under optimal ramsey policy ppi deviates significantly from zero a comparison of welfare costs for a set of operational rules relatively to the ramsey plan shows that targeting the output gap the mark up and the asset price improves upon a rule with aggressive response to inflation

optimal monetary policy optimal monetary policy maximizes the welfare of a representative agent given frictions in the economic environment constructing a model with two sets of frictions costly price adjustment by imperfectly competitive firms and costly exchange of wealth for goods we find optimal monetary policy is governed by two familiar principles first the average level of the nominal interest rate should be sufficiently low as suggested by milton friedman that there should be deflation on average yet the keynesian frictions imply that the optimal nominal interest rate is positive second as various shocks occur to the real and monetary sectors the price level should be largely stabilized as suggested by irving fisher albeit around a deflationary trend path since expected inflation is roughly constant through time the nominal interest rate must therefore vary with the fisherian determinants of the real interest rate although the monetary authority has substantial leverage over real activity in our model economy it chooses real allocations that closely resemble those which would occur if prices were flexible in our benchmark model there is some tendency for the monetary authority to smooth nominal and real interest rates

child labor and the interaction between the quantity and quality of children this article analyzes the impacts of child labor on the interaction between the quantity and quality of children in the spirit of becker and lewis it shows that without child labor the quantity of children can be a normal good so that it increases with parental income under some fairly standard formulations however the correlation between fertility and parental income becomes negative when the role of child labor is considered the model also implies that fertility increases with the wage rate of child labor moreover it suggests that government intervention not only directly affects the supply of child labor but also influences parents decisions on fertility which indirectly determines children s labor market participations

multilateral trade negotiations european integration and farm policy reform trade negotiations and farm policy kym anderson why was it so hard to reach an agreement in the uruguay round to reduce agricultural protection after surveying the growth of agricultural protection in the 1980s i develop arguments based on political economy that imply a systematic tendency for governments to protect farmers increasingly at least up to some threshold as economic development proceeds agricultural protection growth in industrializing countries is therefore normal not exceptional liberalizing those policies before reaching that threshold is unattractive politically unless new influences e g from abroad upset the domestic political equilibrium the uruguay round provided such a force what made the early 1990s so significant a crossroads for farm policy reform was that coincidently there were other changes taking place in europe which lowered the domestic political cost of reforming the ec s common agricultural policy the paper argues that the reforms to farm policy during the rest of this decade as a result of the uruguay round agreement will at best be slow and messy but that is far preferable to the alternative of a failed uruguay round and continued growth of agricultural protection

optimal taxation of capital income in general equilibrium with infinite lives this paper analyzes the optimal tax on capital income in general equilibrium models of the second best agents have infinite lives and utility functions which are extensions from the koopmans form the population is heterogeneous the important property of the models is the equality between the social and the private discount rates in the long run i find that the optimal tax rate is zero in the long run for a special case of additively separable utility functions i then determine the tax rates along the dynamic path and conditions that are sufficient for the local stability of the steady state

schooling costs and child labour in rural pakistan a conventional argument in the child labour debate is that improvements in access to schools are an effective way to reduce the labour force participation of children it is argued that schooling competes with economic activity in the use of children s time and enhanced access to schools interpretable as reduction in schooling costs may raise school attendance at the expense of child labour in this article we draw a distinction between child labour within the household intra household and child work in the labour market extra household and examine the separate effects of schooling costs upon these two types of child labour in rural pakistan consistent at least in part with our theoretical framework we find that extra household child labour and schooling costs are positively related whereas intra household child labour is insensitive to changes in the costs of schooling our results suggest that reduction in schooling costs will have limited success in the abatement of child labour in rural p

cropping pattern mechanization child labor and fertility behavior in a farming economy rural egypt tractor and the use of mechanical irrigation is increasing in the countryside the significant policy issue is the role of government in encouraging or discouraging continued labor saving mechanization present policy substantially encourages mechanization diesel oil is available at prices considerably lower than those in many other countries village banks provide farmers with equipment loans at rates below commercial levels machinery is imported at favorable foreign exchange rates and is exempted from import duties the most telling impact of these policies has been on the rapidly growing use of tractors and irrigation pumps both of which are believed to displace labor especially that of children this article addresses the question of whether such changes have indeed had the desired effect on child employment and family size recent developments in the egyptian agricultural sector also reveal significant changes in crop patterns these favor fruit and vegeta

the road to uruguay context and to show how its agenda and procedures as well as its problems and possible outcomes have arisen from the conjunction of developments in patterns of world trade and the evolution of the gatt itself the uruguay round has some novel features but it also strongly reflects the continuation of the trends of the last forty years the gatt has fostered the evolution of the world trading system from a highly restrictive form with two major players the us and the uk towards a more liberal and evenly balanced form the practices appropriate to the former circumstances achieved many of their objectives but they proved gradually less able to cope with the strains of the new circumstances and problems thus the gatt s traditional bilateral mode of tariff negotiations has given way first to a more multilateral form of tariff talks and then to a preoccupation with constitutional issues such as trading rules and the sectoral coverage of the gatt its procedures have become progressively more multilateral but especially when one considers trade policy implemented between gatt rounds its outcomes appear recently to have become less so it is paradoxical that whereas initially the gatt harnessed the crude power of bilateralism to achieve multilateral outcomes it has more recently adopted multilateral procedures but with more bi and pluri lateral results