a fast calibrating volatility model for option pricing abstract in this paper we propose a new random volatility model where the volatility has a deterministic term structure modified by a scalar random variable closed form approximation is derived for european option price using higher order greeks with respect to volatility we show that the calibration of our model is often more than two orders of magnitude faster than the calibration of commonly used stochastic volatility models such as the heston model or bates model on 15 different index option data sets we show that our model achieves accuracy comparable with the aforementioned models at a much lower computational cost for calibration further our model yields prices for certain exotic options in the same range as these two models lastly the model yields delta and gamma values for options in the same range as the other commonly used models over most of the data sets considered our model has a significant potential for use in high frequency derivative trading

the dual structure of incomplete demand systems integrability of incomplete demand systems is discussed the concepts of weak integrability quasi expenditure function quasi indirect utility function and quasi utility function are defined their relationships to the expenditure function indirect utility function and utility function are developed the dual structure of the quasi functions permits exact welfare analysis and reveals the conditional preference structure for the commodities of interest new results relating the uniqueness and exactness of consumer s surplus to the structure of the expenditure and indirect utility functions are obtained

semi nonparametric distribution free dichotomous choice contingent valuation abstract we apply a semi nonparametric distribution free estimator for binary discrete response data to the estimation of a dichotomous choice contingent valuation model using this estimator mean and median compensating and equivalent variation can be consistently estimated without making nontheoretically motivated assumptions on consumer preferences the approach is illustrated using a contingent valuation survey of willingness to pay for reduction of risk of premature death due to exposure to hazardous waste we find that a conventional parametric estimator and the proposed estimator give similar estimates of unconditional wtp but that conditional on explanatory variables the estimates are quite different

the pricing of options on assets with stochastic volatilities one option pricing problem that has hitherto been unsolved is the pricing of a european call on an asset that has a stochastic volatility this paper examines this problem the option price is determined in series form for the case in which the stochastic volatility is independent of the stock price numerical solutions are also produced for the case in which the volatility is correlated with the stock price it is found that the black scholes price frequently overprices options and that the degree of overpricing increases with the time to maturity one option pricing problem that has hitherto remained unsolved is the pricing of a european call on a stock that has a stochastic volatility from the work of merton 12 garman 6 and cox ingersoll and ross 3 the differential equation that the option must satisfy is known the solution of this differential equation is independent of risk preferences if a the volatility is a traded asset or b the volatility is uncorrelated with aggregate consumption if either of these conditions holds the risk neutral valuation arguments of cox and ross 4 can be used in a straightfoward way this paper produces a solution in series form for the situation in which the stock price is instantaneously uncorrelated with the volatility we do not assume that the volatility is a traded asset also a constant correlation between the instantaneous rate of change of the volatility and the rate of change of aggregate consumption can be accommodated the option price is lower than the blackscholes b s 1 price when the option is close to being at the money and higher when it is deep in or deep out of the money the exercise prices for which overpricing by b s takes place are within about ten percent of the security price this is the range of exercise prices over which most option trading takes place so we may in general expect the b s price to overprice options this effect is exaggerated as the time to maturity increases one of the most surprising implications of this is that if the b s equation is used to determine the implied volatility of a near the money option the longer the time to maturity the lower the implied volatility numerical solutions for the case in which the volatility is correlated with the stock price are also examined the stochastic volatility problem has been examined by merton 13 geske 7 johnson 10 johnson and shanno 11 eisenberg 5 wiggins 16 and

separability partial demand systems and consumer s surplus measures abstract in practice complete demand systems are not estimated rather either an incomplete demand system is estimated or separability is invoked and a partial demand system is estimated this paper considers the relationship between the conventional compensating variation equivalent variation and the corresponding welfare measure that can be derived from a partial demand system and the current budget allocation to the separable group even assuming the separability assumption invoked is appropriate these partial measures provide in general only a limited amount of information about the compensating variation and no information about the equivalent variation great care is therefore needed when using partial welfare measures to evaluate policy

nonlinear income effects in random utility models random utility models rums are used in the literature to model consumer choices from among a discrete set of alternatives and they typically impose a constant marginal utility of income on individual preferences this assumption is driven partially by the difficulty of constructing welfare estimates in models with nonlinear income effects recently mcfadden 1995 developed an algorithm for computing these welfare impacts using a monte carlo markov chain simulator for generalized extreme value variates this paper investigates the empirical consequences of nonlinear rums in the case of sportfishing modal choice while refining and contrasting the available methods for welfare estimation

value of time speeding behavior and gasoline prices abstract value of time vot is a key parameter in economics and policy this paper presents an alternative method to estimate vot by analyzing an hourly dataset on drivers speeding behavior as a function of the gasoline price our identification strategy is novel as it is based on the intensive margin in comparison previous studies reveal vot on the extensive margin but choice alternatives have multiple attributes thereby potentially confounding estimates consistent with the range of the prior literature we find a vot of about 50 of the wage rate and analyze sources of bias from accidents and traffic tickets these bias functions suggest that previous stated preference vot estimates are likely downward whereas previous revealed preference estimates are likely upward biased

the risk premium that never was a fair value explanation of the volatility spread abstract we present a new framework to investigate the profitability of trading the volatility spread the upward bias on implied volatility as an estimator of future realized volatility the scheme incorporates the first four option implied moments in a growth optimal payoff that is statically replicated using a portfolio of options removing the upward bias on implied volatility worsens the likelihood score of risk neutral densities obtained from s p 500 index options when they are used as forecasts of the underlying index return distribution it also results in negative expected capital growth when they are used in a volatility arbitrage scheme our empirical finding is that the upward bias on implied volatility does not represent a long term return premium rather it is required to mitigate the large losses associated with tail events when trading volatility in options markets

normal mixture diffusion with uncertain volatility modelling short and long term smile effects this paper introduces a parameterization of the normal mixture diffusion nmd local volatility model that captures only a short term smile effect and then extends the model so that it also captures a long term smile effect we focus on the binomial nmd parameterization so called because it is based on simple and intuitive assumptions that imply the mixing law for the normal mixture log price density is binomial with more than two possible states for volatility the general parameterization is related to the multinomial mixing law in this parsimonious class of complete market models option pricing and hedging is straightforward since model prices and deltas are simple weighted averages of black scholes prices and deltas but they only capture a short term smile effect where leptokurtosis in the log price density decreases with term in accordance with the stylised facts of econometric analysis on ex post returns of different frequencies and the central limit theorem however the last part of the paper shows that longer term smile effects that arise from uncertainty in the local volatility surface can be modeled by a natural extension of the binomial nmd parameterization results are illustrated by calibrating the model to several euro us dollar currency option smile surfaces

a two constraint almost ideal demand model of recreation and donations an incomplete demand system is developed for recreation and donation choices subject to both money and time constraints the model results in a three good system with an endogenous marginal value of time for estimation the model is implemented by adapting deaton and muellbauer s locally flexible almost ideal demand system to a two constraint recreation model of trips and donations of california whale watchers exact welfare measures are calculated for changes in costs as well as for whale population changes results indicate a use and a nonuse component of overall willingness to pay for increases in environmental quality

the demand for leisure time in the presence of constrained work hours w douglass shaw this article presents a labor supply model designed to address situations of overemployment or underemployment in the labor market previous labor supply models have taken the possibility of work hour constraints into consideration but typically assumed that the existence of fixed work hours only influenced the decision of labor force participation this ignores situations in which individuals choose to be employed at fixed hour jobs even though these jobs do not offer the desired work hours jel j22 i introduction early attempts to incorporate time into consumer theory such as those by becker 1965 and by deserpa 1971 and to explain behavior in labor markets such as heckman s 1974 pioneering study relied on the assumption that individuals are able to freely adjust the hours they work the ability of an individual to achieve equilibrium in these models depends on flexible work hours for many individuals however hours of work are likely to be constrained individuals wishing to increase or decrease their work time may face a decision of either accepting the fixed hour schedule or exiting the labor force more refined models of labor force participation put forth by moffitt 1982 tummers and woittiez 1990 and zabel 1993 recognized this by incorporating a fixed hour constraint directly into the labor force participation decision generally these models assume that individuals decide whether or not to accept employment by comparing offered hours with desired hours if desired hours exceed offered hours then the individual enters the labor force models with a fixed hour constraint represent an improvement but they ignore the possibility that a large proportion of the labor force is likely to be either underemployed or overemployed due to the ubiquity of fixed hour employment the presence of these types of jobs is well documented in the literature schor 1991 lists several reasons including lack of lower skilled jobs costly fringe benefits and increased business competition why underemployment and overemployment is prevalent in the u s workplace prior studies by mossin and bronfenbrenner 1967 and by altonji and paxson 1988 document underemployment in the workplace in a study of the u s work force ham 1982 found that unemployed and underemployed workers ranged from 19 2 in 1973 to 28 2 in 1970 1 on the overemployment side tarling 1987 claims that recent evidence indicates that many employees would be prepared to forgo some of their earnings in order to reduce their hours of work p 85 bockstael et al 1987 make a simi lar observation noting that in their sample individuals with fixed working hours appear to value time much more highly than the wage rate and would be willing to trade work for leisure p 301 hahnel 1998 concluded that results from a 1994 survey suggest that u s workers have a slight preference for pay cuts in order to reduce their work hours about 50 of the respondents claimed they would accept a 10 reduction in pay in order to work a four day week well over half of the respondents in the survey claimed that it was either fairly difficult or almost impossible to reduce their work hours and over 60 reported that reducing their work hours would have a negative impact on their careers although the existence of underemployment and overemployment is well documented explicitly accounting for it in labor supply models remains largely unexplored in the literature in this paper the labor supply model originally analyzed by heckman 1974 is extended to recognize and incorporate fixed hour situations heckman s model which has been described as the most prevalent in the literature by zabel 1993 is derived by comparing reservation and market wages in its original form it posited a strong link between the labor force participation decision and the labor supply decision

on calibration of stochastic and fractional stochastic volatility models abstract in this paper we study optimization techniques for calibration of stochastic volatility models to real market data several optimization techniques are compared and used in order to solve the nonlinear least squares problem arising in the minimization of the difference between the observed market prices and the model prices to compare several approaches we use a popular stochastic volatility model firstly introduced by heston 1993 and a more complex model with jumps in the underlying and approximative fractional volatility calibration procedures are performed on two main data sets that involve traded dax index options we show how well both models can be fitted to a given option price surface the routines alongside models are also compared in terms of out of sample errors for the calibration tasks without having a good knowledge of the market e g a suitable initial model parameters we suggest an approach of combining local and global optimizers this way we are able to retrieve superior error measures for all considered tasks and models

welfare estimation using the fourier form simulation evidence for the recreation demand case the paper considers the estimation of welfare measures when the functional form of demand is unknown an adaptation of an argument of gallant 1987 is used to show that welfare estimators based on a fourier functional form for demand will be consistent under weak assumptions simulation evidence is presented for equivalent variation true demand is a generalized box cox function estimated demand is a fourier form and equivalent variation is estimated by applying vartia s 1983 algorithm to the estimated demand function the estimator of equivalent variation has small asymptotic bias in the case of the assumed family of data generating processes

recreation demand choices and revealed values of leisure time i introduction at least since the work of becker 1965 it has been recognized widely that time may play an important role in consumer demand one of the areas where this may be most significant empirically is in the valuation of natural resource amenities through their associated recreation demands a principal reason is that recreation is a time intensive commodity so that the value of the time spent in recreation would be expected to play a large role in its overall value the potential bias to consumer s surplus estimates of the net economic value of recreation from excluding time prices from the demand model has been recognized from the outset for example by knetsch 1963 and clawson 1959 to incorporate time into recreation demand models researchers have generally adopted the practice suggested by mcconnell 1975 of defining the full price of recreation as the money cost of a trip plus its monetized time cost though the use of full budgets also called for by the becker approach is less widespread bockstael et al 1987 pointed out quite clearly that both full budgets and full prices are required in the demand function if the recreationist is jointly choosing labor supply with recreation at an exogenous marginal wage but that the structure of demand was unclear if the individual was not making such marginal labor supply choices i e if he or she was working fixed hours subsequently larson and shaikh 2001 showed that the full prices full budgets specification is sufficient to satisfy the constraints on demand parameters that arise because choice is made subject to two binding constraints regardless of the individual s position in the labor market they also pointed out that models that use full prices but only money income in effect ignoring the role of time as a resource constraint cannot be consistent with the requirements of choice subject to two constraints although the outlines of how time should enter the structure of demand are becoming clear a major unresolved issue is how to determine its value in practice several studies have followed the basic logic of becker s early work assuming that the opportunity cost of recreation time i e the value of other time forgone in favor of recreation is an exogenous parameter such as the average wage rate or more commonly some fraction thereof this fraction is either chosen arbitrarily or estimated as part of the recreation demand model as in cesario 1976 mcconnell and strand 1981 and smith et al 1983 such assumptions may be erroneous for a variety of reasons assuming the average wage is the appropriate opportunity cost of time presumes that the individual faces no constraints on hours worked derives no utility or disutility from work and has a linear wage function as has been noted by chiswick 1967 bockstael et al 1987 and smith et al 1983 this is unlikely to be true for many people assuming some constant fraction of the wage is the opportunity cost of time especially an arbitrarily chosen fraction also seems likely to be incorrect for most people for all of these reasons an individual s average wage does not necessarily reveal anything about the shadow value of discretionary leisure time either as an upper or lower bound in a recent advance feather and shaw 2000 adapted the heckman 1974 labor supply model to include information supplied by recreationists about their labor supply status in particular whether they felt under or over employed relative to their desired number of hours this information is used to identify subgroups in the data for which the shadow value of leisure time is less than the wage or more than the wage which helps in the estimation of both a wage function and a shadow value of leisure time function this approach produces individual specific estimates of the opportunity cost of leisure time based on their demographics and labor market decisions which are used in a subsequent recreation demand analysis

short run constraints and the increasing marginal value of time in recreation leisure activities such as local recreation trips usually take place in discrete blocks of time that are surrounded by time devoted to other commitments it can be costly to transfer time between blocks to allow for longer outings these observations affect the value of time within those blocks and suggest that traditional methods for valuing time using labor markets miss important considerations this paper presents a new model for time valuation that uses non employment time commitments to infer the shadow value of time spent in recreation a unique survey that elicited revealed and stated preference data on household time allocation is used to implement the model the results support the conclusion that there is an increasing marginal value of time for recreation as the trip length increases

time and the recreational demand model in this paper a theoretically consistent approach to including time costs in recreational demand models is developed the demand model is conditional on the recreationist s labor market situation for individuals at corner solutions in the labor market utility maximization is subject to two constraints leading to a demand function with travel costs and travel time as independent variables with interior solutions in the labor market time is valued at the wage rate and combined with travel costs to produce one full cost variable in an illustration welfare measures based on the new model are estimated for a sample of sportfishermen

a jump diffusion model for option pricing brownian motion and normal distribution have been widely used in the black scholes option pricing framework to model the return of assets however two puzzles emerge from many empirical investigations the leptokurtic feature that the return distribution of assets may have a higher peak and two asymmetric heavier tails than those of the normal distribution and an empirical phenomenon called volatility smile in option markets to incorporate both of them and to strike a balance between reality and tractability this paper proposes for the purpose of option pricing a double exponential jump diffusion model in particular the model is simple enough to produce analytical solutions for a variety of option pricing problems including call and put options interest rate derivatives and path dependent options equilibrium analysis and a psychological interpretation of the model are also presented

vix derivatives hedging and vol of vol risk we study the empirical hedging performance of alternative vix option pricing models recent advances in the literature find evidence of asymmetric volatility of volatility similar to the leverage effect in equity markets stochastic mean reversion and jumps using such findings in our model framework we show that while sophisticated models have superior pricing performance and can explain a range of stylized facts in the vix derivatives market their hedging performance is inferior to a simple black model hedge we also study the empirical performance of regime dependent hedge ratio adjustments commonly applied in equity markets

empirical specification requirements for two constraint models of recreation choice two constraint models are common in recreation demand analysis because of the important role time can play in consumer choices two versions of roy s identity hold for these models and imply coefficient restrictions on empirical demand functions the two constraint restrictions are fully observable and can be expressed in a form analogous to the slutsky hicks equations in single constraint consumer models empirical specifications that use full prices and full budgets can be consistent with the two constraint models when the marginal value of time is either exogenous or endogenous but models with full prices and money income alone are not copyright 2001 oxford university press

a reconsideration of the sugar sweetened beverage tax in a household production model abstract we study the impact of a hypothetical tax on sugar sweetened beverages ssbs on the u s households nutrients purchase welfare change and health benefit differently from the traditional approach food at home fah is here defined as a home good instead of a market good and consumers demands derived under the assumption that households maximize utility subject to both a money and a time constraint the model is estimated by using an incomplete approximate exact affine stone index easi demand system on a data set built by merging the u s consumer expenditure and time use surveys results show that a ssb tax would be much more effective in decreasing household nutrients purchase than it would appear by estimating a model neglecting time costs in home food production due to a lesser compensation of calories from increasing fah consumption a tax induced 38 increase in ssb price is predicted to decrease the per capita energy purchase by 41 kcal day

a general framework for discretely sampled realized variance derivatives in stochastic volatility models with jumps abstract after the recent financial crisis the market for volatility derivatives has expanded rapidly to meet the demand from investors risk managers and speculators seeking diversification of the volatility risk in this paper we develop a novel and efficient transform based method to price swaps and options related to discretely sampled realized variance under a general class of stochastic volatility models with jumps we utilize frame duality and density projection method combined with a novel continuous time markov chain ctmc weak approximation scheme of the underlying variance process contracts considered include discrete variance swaps discrete variance options and discrete volatility options models considered include several popular stochastic volatility models with a general jump size distribution heston scott hull white stein stein hypergeometric 3 2 and 4 2 models our framework encompasses and extends the current literature on discretely sampled volatility derivatives and provides highly efficient and accurate valuation methods numerical experiments confirm our findings

macroeconomic volatility in latin america a conceptual framework and three case studies after decades of trial error and occasional regress the pieces of a successful latin american economic model can be seen scattered among the leading economies of the region the most traditional macroeconomic maladies of the emerging world such as chronic fiscal imbalances and monetary gimmicks are gradually being left behind many of these economies have made significant progress in their regulatory and supervisory frameworks and at times have been leaders beyond latin american boundaries in allowing private sector co participation in a wide array of expublic sector activities despite these significant efforts several structural sources of volatility remain and new ones have emerged as a result of the new and otherwise better economic environment in this paper i review these sources through the recent experiences of argentina chile and mexico