budget deficits stability and the monetary dynamics of hyperinflation hyperinflationary processes usually occur in countries with extremely large budget deficits in models of inflationary finance with rational expectations e g buiter 1987 large budget deficits cannot lead to hyperinflation the purpose of this paper is to reconcile the standard theoretical model with the stylized facts it shows that by introducing a lag in the adjustment of the money market into the standard inflationary finance model large budget deficits are indeed the main reason for hyperinflation the paper also provides an explanation for the ineffectiveness of moderate reductions in the deficit in reducing inflation and argues that fiscal lags can be destabilizing copyright 1989 by ohio state university press

household saving in ldcs credit markets insurance and welfare some ways in which farmers in ldcs can protect their living standards against fluctuations in income are discussed after considering the theory of consumption under uncertainty when there is no or limited borrowing the case where some borrowing is allowed is also examined empirical evidence from some ldcs is used to look at i household borrowing and lending their importance and timing and their role in smoothing consumption and ii the life cycle behavior of consumption and income the results suggest that hump lifecycle saving is not likely to be a very important generator of wealth in ldcs and provide further evidence on the limited role of credit markets

war peace and the size of countries this paper studies the relationship between international con ict and the size distribution of countries in a model in which both peaceful bargaining and non peaceful confrontations are possible we show how the size distribution of countries depends on the likelihood bene ts and costs of con ict and war we also study the role of international law and show how better de ned international property rights may lead to country breakup and more numerous local con icts

credit market constraints consumption smoothing and the accumulation of durable production assets in low income countries investments in bullocks in india in this paper we formulate and estimate a finite horizon structural dynamic model of agricultural investment behavior that incorporates the major features of low income agricultural environments income uncertainty constraints on borrowing and rental markets and the use of investment assets to generate income and smooth consumption the model is fit to longitudinal indian household data on farm profits bullock stocks and pump sets the estimated structural parameters are used to assess the effects on the life cycle accumulation of bullocks agricultural profits and welfare associated with complete markets and bullock liquidity and with second best policies that provide assured sources of income to farmers and weather insurance

the austral plan in recent years several countries have experienced extremely rapid inflations but without total collapses of the national currencies argentina was one of those cases by mid 1985 the rate of price increase exceeded 30 percent per month however prices continued to be set in pesos and there remained a sizeable volume of short term nominal contracts the treatment of such inflations poses several questions what is the desirable speed of disinflation what mix of instruments can effectively act on prices without causing an excessive fall in real income how can prices be kept on a stable or moderately rising trend the austral plan announced in june 1985 combined fiscal measures with a price wage freeze and a monetary reform linked to a system for the conversion of debt contracts the program quite successfully managed the transition to a much lower inflation rate while real output recovered rapidly after an initial contraction still inflationary forces remained strong the problem of achieving a sustained stabilization proved quite difficult to solve this paper briefly describes the program and its effects with some references to current debates on stabilization policies see my 1986 study for full discussion and details

centralized versus decentralized provision of local public goods a political economy approach abstract this paper takes a fresh look at the trade off between centralized and decentralized provision of local public goods it argues that the sharing of the costs of local public spending in a centralized system will create a conflict of interest between citizens in different jurisdictions when spending decisions are made by a legislature of locally elected representatives this conflict of interest will play out in the legislature depending on precisely how the legislature behaves the result may be excessive public spending or allocations of public goods characterized by uncertainty and misallocation across districts the extent of the conflict of interest between districts is affected by spillovers and differences in tastes for public spending thus the relative performance of centralized and decentralized systems depends upon spillovers and differences in tastes for public spending but for different reasons than suggested in the existing literature

a federal voting mechanism to solve the fiscal externality problem abstract fiscal externalities arise whenever several countries choose independently some tax or regulation policy this results into a severe loss for everybody if the taxed or regulated factor is very mobile for example this implies a bias toward little or no capital taxation if capital can move easily toward the lowest tax rate federalism would induce voters to internalize these externalities but implies full harmonization which harms countries whose most preferred policy is too far from the federal median which may lead them not to enter the federation in the first place we study a natural intermediate mechanism between full independence and full federalism introducing flexible divisions of the surplus generated by the removal of these externalities in the first stage voting takes place in each country simultaneously in order to choose a federal policy in the second stage each country decides through voting whether to adopt the federal policy or to leave the federation in which case it chooses its own policy and possibly pays a fixed cost to the remaining federation even if the fixed cost is null the federal voting stage acts as a commitment device and softens the inefficiency of full independence by allowing voters to internalize the undesirable effects of federal break up in stage 2 moreover the fixed cost can be chosen so that situations where harmonization is desirable get self selected as a result every country always benefits from entering this mechanism combining the benefits of common decision making with those of flexibility

constitutional rules of exclusion in jurisdiction formation the rules under which jurisdictions nations provinces can deny immigration or expel residents are generally governed by a constitution but there do not exist either positive or normative analyses to suggest what types of exclusion rules are best we stylize this problem by suggesting four constitutional rules of admission free mobility admission by majority vote admission by unanimous consent admission by a demand threshold for public goods in a simple model we characterize the equilibria that result from these rules and provide a positive theory for which constitutional rules will be chosen

nutritional status during an economic crisis evidence from russia between 1996 and 1998 russia experienced a spectacular decline in economic activity which was followed by a dramatic rebound between 1998 and 2000 we use panel data to examine the impact of variation in household resources on six dimensions of nutritional status distinguishing longer run from short term fluctuations in resources nutritional status is very resilient to short term variation in household resources gross energy intake adult weight and child stature change very little as expenditure deviates from its long run average longer run resources have a substantively large positive and significant effect on energy intake diet quality adult weight and child stature the evidence indicates that individuals and households are able to weather short term fluctuations in economic resources at least in terms of maintaining body mass and energy intake increased globalisation has resulted in many less developed countries becoming more integrated into world markets this integration carries both benefits and costs for the populations of those countries an oft cited cost is elevated risk of exposure to economic fluctuations which has been manifest in several spectacular economic crises across the globe in the last few decades there is however little evidence on the extent to which individuals and families are able to mitigate deleterious effects of these economic upheavals on their well being in spite of its importance for understanding the consequences of globalisation this article provides new evidence on this issue specifically we examine the relationship between several dimensions of nutritional well being and variation in household resources during the russian economic crisis in the late 1990s the economies of the former soviet bloc have been especially volatile since the transition to market based economies which began in the early 1990s nowhere has this been more true than in russia where in the last half of 1998 real gdp collapsed by around 30 and then rapid growth brought the economy back to its pre crisis level by 2000 the time path of changes in gdp is closely mimicked by changes in the incomes and expenditures of russian households using extremely rich longitudinal household survey data from the russian longitudinal monitoring survey rlms we examine the impact of these large fluctuations in household resources on nutrient intake and on anthropometric markers of nutritional status at the individual level in so doing we address an important issue in the literature regarding the extent to which households in low income settings are able

nutrition and labor producvivity in agriculture estimates for rural south india using panel data for rural south india a fixed effects individual wage equation and farm production function are estimated that have calorie intake and nutritional status weight for height of workers as their arguments neither market wages nor farm output are observed to be responsive to changes in the daily energy intake of workers however both are highly elastic with respect to weight for height these results suggest that while the human body can adapt to inadequate nutrition in the short run it cannot adapt as readily to chronic malnutrition that eventually results in loss of weight for height copyright 1988 by mit press

unobserved rational expectations and the german hyperinflation with endogenous money supply a kalman filtering technique is employed to test the convergent expectation hypothesis in the great german hyperinflation when the money supply is endogenously determined after converting the model structure to a state space form the parameters are estimated via minimization of a gaussian likelihood function the result is then used in a filter smoother combination to yield smoothed estimates of the state variable associated with the arbitrary constant of the rational expectations solution bo th para metric and nonparametric tests lead us to reject the null hypothesis of convergent expectations copyright 1987 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

second best taxation as a game second best theory usually lies in the realm of normative analysis it focuses attention on the best solutions which still can be obtained in problems where constraints of various natures forbid the attainment of first best pareto optimal situations its central concern is the characterization of such second best solutions and a large part of the literature concentrates on the optimal design of taxes or of policies of public firms taking a second best problem we try in this paper to shift the emphasis from normative to positive considerations the solution we are interested in is not optimal with respect to some a priori given social welfare function embodying justice objectives but it is supposed to reflect the power of the different agents in a negotiation process clearly the conceptual tools required for such an analysis are to be found in game theory and it is actually a game theoretical approach that we follow here the model we are looking at is presented in section ii it formalizes one of the simplest second best problems that can be imagined we have a twogood economy with one private good and one public good agents have different wealth in private good and the public good is financed through a wealth tax this latter fiscal system is clearly not flexible enough to adjust contributions with marginal willingnesses to pay so that we actually face a second best situation there is one decision variable in the society the tax rate which determines the public good production about which the agents have conflicting desires to this problem we associate a game which provides a precise framework for the analysis of the power of the agents the positive outcomes of the negotiation process are supposed to belong to the core of this game sections iii and iv concentrate on the analysis of the core the results strongly contrast with those obtained in the classical studies of the core of 67 0022 053 l 81 040067 25 02 00 o

terminating hyperinflation in the dismembered habsburg monarchy to assess the validity of thomas sargent s claim that hyperinflation can be terminated without dire employment effects monthly unemploymentpercentage estimates were constructed for poland hungary and austriaover the period both before and after monetary stabilization followingworld war i these data reveal that there were significant effects onemployment in the three territories unemployment peaked in poland at alittle less than 13 percent in hungary at 12 percent and probably higher and in austria at 7 percent an attempt is made to identify those considerations that contributed to the emergence of unemploymentwith the advent of monetary stabilization copyright 1986 by american economic association

inflation and currency reform expectations of currency reform are explicitly incorporated into a rational expectations version of the cagan model of money market equilibrium where expectations about the timing of reform are lerived from a simple government rule for choosing when to reform the currency the model is estimated for three of the episodes of hyperinflation that cagan investigated and the results support the hypothesis that expectations of reform were responsible for the apparent instability of the demand for money during the final months of these hyperinflations

testing for rational bubbles with exogenous or endogenous fundamentals the german hyperinflation once more abstract the presence of rational price bubbles during the german hyperinflation is tested under two different structural assumptions on the money process if the money supply is constrained to be exogenous to the current inflation rate the hypothesis of no bubble can be rejected however this is no longer found to be true when a feedback rule from inflation to money creation is allowed the analysis contradicts previous results presented in the literature

on market integration and the development of institutions the case of international commercial arbitration abstract this paper suggests that the institutional basis necessary to support efficient international trade is provided not only by treaties among national governments but also by international coalitions of private agents international commercial arbitration is an important example of these private coalitions the paper reviews the provisions and the practice of international arbitration and presents a general equilibrium model of the relationship between the expansion of international trade and the adoption of arbitration the model shows that arbitration alters the size and composition of markets while at the same time responding to exogenous changes in trade

precautionary behavior migrant networks and household consumption decisions an empirical analysis using household panel data from rural china abstract we develop a test of precautionary behavior in the consumption decisions of rural agricultural households among surveyed households facing a median level of consumption risk 10 of savings can be attributed to a precautionary motive and this increases to 15 for households with consumption per capita below the poverty line we next use distant lags of local rainfall shocks uncorrelated with current consumption growth to identify the size of migrant networks outside the village and then present evidence that both poor and nonpoor households engage in less precautionary saving as the size of the village migrant network increases

american colonial monetary regimes the failure of the quantity theory and some evidence in favour of an alternate view recent developments in monetary economics suggest that the manner in which money is introduced is more important even for price level movements than the quantity of money colonial american experience provides a laboratory for testing this view it is shown that the nature of backing rather than the quantity of money determined its value large secular inflations were ended by changing the nature of backing despite continued large note issues and despite the absence of a metallic standard extremely large note issues and note withdrawals are shown not to have produced inflation currency depreciation or deflation currency appreciation

productivity health and inequality in the intrahousehold distribution of food in low income countries a model is formulated incorporating linkages among nutrition labor market productivity health heterogeneity and the intrahousehold distribution of food and work activities in a subsistence economy empirical results based on a sample of households from bangladesh indicate that despite considerable intrahousehold disparities in calorie consumption households are averse to inequality furthermore consistent with the model the results also indicate that both the higher level and greater variance in the calories consumed by men relative to women reflect in part the greater participation by men in activities in which productivity is sensitive to health status copyright 1990 by american economic association

fiscal reforms and stabilisation four hyperinflation cases examined this paper discusses a hypothesis that is common to several recent explanations for the needs of hyperinflations of the 1920s namely that fiscal reforms had been responsible for their sudden end it is suggested that the very presence of these reforms can be disputed once evidence is provided on the fact that budget deficits were mostly caused by the so called oliveira tanzi effect i e deficits were mostly generated by inflation itself some observations are offered on other issues to be addressed if an alternative explanation for the stabilizations are to be found copyright 1990 by royal economic society

health shocks and natural resource management evidence from western kenya poverty and altered planning horizons brought on by the hiv aids epidemic can change individual discount rates altering incentives to conserve natural resources using longitudinal household survey data from western kenya we estimate the effects of health status on investments in soil quality as indicated by households agricultural land fallowing decisions we first show that this effect is theoretically ambiguous while health improvements lower discount rates and thus increase incentives to conserve natural resources they also increase labor productivity and make it more likely that households can engage in labor intensive resource extraction activities we find that household size and composition are predictors of whether the effect of health improvements on discount rates dominates the productivity effect or vice versa since households with more and younger members are better able to reallocate labor to cope with productivity shocks the discount rate effect dominates for these households and health improvements lead to greater levels of conservation in smaller families with less substitutable labor the productivity effect dominates and health improvements lead to greater environmental degradation

cagan s hypothesis and the first nationwide inflation of paper money in world history more than 25 years ago phillip cagan proposed the hypothesis that the demand for real cash balances depended mainly on the expected rate of inflation provided that the monetary sector was sufficiently isolated from changes in the real sector cagan 1956 to test his hypothesis cagan studied seven hyperinflations in modern europe during which variations in the real variables were negligible compared with the astronomical increases in prices it is well known that he got confirmatory results from his studies however until recently it has not been realized that the same hypothesis is also strongly supported by data from a very different socioeconomic context namely the first nationwide inflation of paper money in world history paper money was invented in china in the northern suing dynasty a d 960 1126 and widely used in the southern sung dynasty a d 1127 1278 the first inflation on a national scale occurred from around 1190 to the end of the dynasty when the monetary system collapsed in this inflation period available historical records do not suggest significant expansion of the economy or important changes in real income modern financial assets such as bonds and equities did

enlargement processes and distributional conflicts the politics of discriminatory membership in the european union this paper examines discriminatory membership in the european union from a game theoretical perspective i argue that discriminatory membership enables the enlargement of international organizations with heterogenous member states eu members impose discriminatory measures on new members to redistribute enlargement gains from new members to particularly negatively affected eu members as to render expansion pareto efficient the empirical findings of a probit analysis on the eu accession negotiations and outcomes of all five eu enlargement rounds support the theoretical claim the eu grants acceding states restricted membership rights if distributional conflicts emerge moreover the candidate s bargaining power and the possibility of alternative compensation schemes influence the enlargement outcomes

chaotic dynamics in economic time series abstract there has recently been considerable interest in chaotic dynamics in a variety of disciplines this paper introduces and then surveys some of the associated literature and techniques applications to economic theory are discussed but the primary focus is on empirical applicability in addition to surveying the literature we also provide an example of the use of these techniques in economics we conclude by highlighting the importance of the techniques for empirical work as well as considering their context in econometric methodology

incentives for separation and incentives for public good provision in this paper i examine how the incentives of regions to unite and to separate are related to the incentives to provide public goods separation allows for greater influence over the nature of political decision making while unification allows regions to exploit economies of scale in the provision of public goods from a social welfare perspective there are excessive incentives for separation and for the provision of public goods when incentives for public good provision are not taken into account however these incentives can be misinterpreted as incentives for separation

a volatility based theory of fiscal union desirability abstract heterogeneous countries may rationally choose to form a currency union first and a fiscal union later we find and illustrate empirically for the emu countries reasonable volatility conditions under which this sequencing in the deepening process is indeed rationalizable changes in the distribution of expected income shocks require a reassignment of political weights to restore unanimous support for an added fiscal dimension the bargaining space depends on countries relative income size and cross correlation of shocks

optimal secession rules abstract should the constitution of a federation allow for peaceful secession constitutionally defined secession rules are optimal ex post if the federation breaks down however they may be suboptimal ex ante if the member countries receive a benefit from the perceived long term stability of the federation and constitutionally defined secession rules increase the probability of a break up the optimal social contract trades off ex ante benefits and ex post losses and it may avoid explicit secession rules if transfers are costly the trade off is present even if ex post renegotiation is allowed finally we show that under asymmetric information it is more difficult to keep the federation together and that a secession war may occur

economic theories of the break up and integration of nations abstract this paper surveys the recent political economy literature on the size distribution of nations the main themes of this literature are 1 a the spread of democracy leads to the creation of too many sovereign states 2 b the extent of factor mobility plays a key role in determining the incentives towards separation or integration 3 c economic integration through the development of international trade may require greater political integration to create and effectively maintain a level playing field in international trade at the same time economic integration by reducing the economic costs of separation increases the incentives towards political separation

why are stabilizations delayed when a stabilization has significant distributional implications e g tax increases to eliminate a large budget deficit socioeconomic groups may attempt to shift the burden of stabilization onto other groups the process leading to stabilization becomes a war of attrition each group attempting to wait the others out and stabilization occurring only when one group concedes and bears a disproportionate share of the burden the authors solve for the expected time of stabilization in a model of rational delay and relate it to several political and economic variables they motivate this approach and its results by comparison to historical and current episodes copyright 1991 by american economic association

the greek stabilization of 1944 46 it is a matter of great contention among economists whether economic stabilization programs can be instituted without imposing high real costs those believing in the core or underlying rate of inflation hypothesis argue that relying only on conventional monetary and fiscal policies will impose high costs the rational expectations proponents on the other hand argue that a convincing antiinflation program will likely minimize these costs as economic agents respond to a genuine regime change or change in the rules under which monetary and fiscal policies are conducted a way of discriminating between these contending views is to examine the stabilization phase of the world s episodes of hyperinflation thus far the work of thomas sargent 1982 on the post world war i experiences in austria hungary poland and germany and william bomberger and myself 1983 on post world war ii hungary have adduced evidence in support of the rationalists view price level stability was achieved rapidly without a prolonged period of high unemployment the greek stabilization of 1944 46 is not so straightforward and as such provides an interesting contrast to the other episodes its unique feature is that price level stability took over a year to achieve following the initial reform of november 11 1944 it was not achieved until in a third reform in early 1946 the greek 1018 1024

atheoretical macroeconometrics a critique abstract the spurious nature of the restrictions used to identify many macroeconometric models has led some researchers to advocate a style of econometric inquiry that is less dependent on prior theoretical restrictions of the sort that were central to the approach of the cowles commission this development which we call atheoretical macroeconometrics is summarized and evaluated in the current paper it is contrasted with an updated version of the cowles commission approach we conclude that while some of the exercises of atheoretical macroeconometrics are valid those that have attracted the most attention and appear the most innovative exogeneity testing impulse response analysis and policy analysis using estimated vector autoregressions are based on incorrect analysis

trade conflict and political integration explaining the heterogeneity of regional trade agreements many historians argue that the main goal of european trade integration was the preservation of peace this paper investigates whether this reasoning is relevant for the eu and other regional trade agreements rtas i provide empirical evidence that customs unions and common markets deep rtas do reduce the probability of war between members partial scope and free trade agreements shallow rtas however have no effect on war probabilities accordingly international insecurity has a differential impact on incentives to create rtas deep rtas are signed between countries that are involved in many interstate disputes and that have low trade costs with the rest of the world whereas the opposite is true for shallow rtas

brazil s tropical plan this paper highlights the institutional features of the inflation process and contrasts two stabilization efforts in 1964 66 and in 1986 the inflation process in brazil is highly institutional it does not resemble hyperinflations where pricing and wage setting are geared to the exchange rate by the hour making it possible to stop inflation by simply containing money creation and fixing the exchange rate the two stabilization programs demonstrate that an incomes policy is an essential ingredient to non recessionary stabilization but they also show that demand restraint is inevitable if disinflation is to be viable the 1964 program was gradualist and two handed relying on the supply side on wage repression the 1986 plan was a heterodox shock treatment centered around an uncompromising price freeze and paying insufficient attention to the need for fiscal restraint this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the hungarian hyperinflation and stabilization of 1945 1946 inflation in hungary after world war ii was the most intense on record the reforms of august 1946 were immediately and entirely successful in stabilizing prices this paper describes and analyzes the unique policies and institutions that produced these phenomena despite its severity the hungarian experience was consistent with the less extreme inflation and stabilization experiences examined by sargent price stabilization was accomplished by fiscal rather than purely monetary measures and was paradoxically accompanied by rapid and prolonged money growth

do migrants really save more understanding the impact of remittances on savings in rural china abstract this article studies the impact of remittances on the savings behaviour of rural households in china using a primary survey undertaken by the authors in 2006 allowing for endogeneity and left censoring of remittances we find that the marginal propensity to save out of remittances is well below half of that out of other sources of incomes moreover we find no evidence of any direct effect of remittances on either capital input or gross output of farm production these findings are robust with respect to alternative definition of savings and are in line with recent studies which conclude that remittances are largely used for consumption purposes by rural chinese households

the real bills doctrine versus the quantity theory a reconsideration two competing monetary policy prescriptions are analyzed within the context of overlapping generations models the real bills prescription is for unfettered private intermediation or central bank operations designed to produce the effects of such intermediation the quantity theory prescription in contrast is for restrictions on private intermediation designed to separate money from credit although our models are consistent with quantity theory predictions about money supply and price level behavior under these two policy prescriptions the models imply that the quantity theory prescription is not pareto optimal and the real bills prescription is

permanent household income and consumption in urban south america milton friedman s permanent income hypothesis pih is considerably more complex and difficult to test than it appears at first sight which is why certain of its postulates still cannot be accepted or rejected with certainty one of the chief difficulties is that of separating the effects on consumption of permanent income which is unobservable and of various observable household characteristics which may be highly correlated with permanent income but may also be presumed to affect consumption directly this difficulty can be overcome provided a variable can be found which is associated with permanent income but has no independent direct effect on the propensity to consume if households are grouped by classes of that variable the permanent consumption propensity or elasticity can be estimated from mean income and consumption in the groups this technique requires the assumption of zero mean transitory income in each group but does not depend on the postulate that transitory income is uncorrelated with consumption for these reasons it cannot be applied to individual households this paper presents and estimates a model which separates the direct and indirect effects on consumption of a series of observable characteristics using regression techniques on individual household observations this makes it possible to estimate all the parameters of the model both the consumption propensity or elasticity and the contribution to permanent income of each observable explanatory variable the technique still requires that at least one of the explanatory variables affect consumption only through permanent income but for all other variables both direct and indirect influences can be estimated and the propensity to consume a given income can vary among households with different characteristics another principal problem with the pih is the assumption that transitory income and consumption are uncorrelated efforts to test this postulate can lead to very different results ranging from agreement with the hypothesis to findings of high propensities to consume transitory income see robert ferber pp 1306 09 this inconsistency and continued controversy over the hypothesis is due to the fact that permanent income cannot be estimated exactly but can be known only with an error which is conceptually distinct from transitory income empirical work on the pih has uniformly overlooked this fact treating estimates of permanent income as exact and regarding the whole of the unexplained residual as transitory income the present model explicitly distinguishes the estimation error from the error of transitory income or consumption the two transitory components can then be assumed to be uncorrelated while the part of permanent income which is not explained is consumed exactly like the explained part whether residual income and consumption appear to be correlated or not then depends on the relative sizes of these two components the unexplained permanent part and the true transitory part this technique has the further advantage that estimating the variance of the error of estimation makes it possible to tell how well a set of observable variables explain permanentincome this explanation may be better than the brookings institution robert solow richard eckaus and robert hall supervised the dissertation 1974 on which this article is based i am particularly grateful to ross williams and robert hall for help in specifying and estimating the model and to denisard alves for a crucial suggestion william cline irwin friend ricardo ffrench davis and robert ferber provided helpful comments on earlier versions subsequent discussions with surjit bhalla and robert lawrence have been most useful i am also much indebted to the managing editor and to a referee for improvements in the final version

korean inflation during the u s military administration of 1945 48 in korea the general state of impoverishment created income levels too low to collect sufficient tax revenues to support the government s spending goal thus the u s military administration was forced to rely on printing substantial quantities of money to finance its real expenditure gap thereby creating a high rate of inflation while fiscal pressure was similar there was significant difference in the magnitude of the inflation for example the monthly average inflation rate reached a peak of 11 percent in korea compared to a monthly peak of 322 percent in germany this comparatively moderate rate of inflation may have allowed the korean experience to go relatively unnoticed by academics yet it affords an opportunity to examine the dynamic process of inflation during a period with circumstances similar to those that produced the more frequently studied episodes of hyperinflation section ii of the paper briefly describes the post world war ii korean economy section iii will employ a structural vector autoregression svar to model the dynamic process of inflation and discusses the long run and contemporaneous restrictions employed to identify the structural parameters the data and subsequent econometric results are reported in section iv the results will indicate that the moderately high rate of inflation during the u s military administration can be largely explained by velocity shocks to money demand suggesting that a

economic exchange during hyperinflation historical evidence indicates that hyperinflations can disrupt individuals normal trading patterns and impede the orderly functioning of markets to explore these issues we construct a theoretical model of hyperinflation that focuses on individuals and their process of economic exchange in our model buyers must carry cash while shopping and some transactions take place in a decentralized setting in which buyer and seller negotiate over the terms of trade of an indivisible good since buyers face the constant threat of incoming younger hence richer customers their bargaining position is weakened by inflation allowing sellers to extract a higher real price however we show that higher inflation also reduces buyers search increasing sellers wait for customers as a result the volume of transactions concluded in the decentralized sector falls at high enough rates of inflation all agents suffer a welfare loss

the breakup of nations a political economy analysis this paper develops a model of the breakup or unification of nations in each nation the decision to separate is taken by majority voting a basic trade off between the efficiency gains of unification and the costs in terms of loss of control on political decisions is highlighted the model emphasizes political conflicts over redistribution policies the main results of the paper are i when income distributions vary across regions and the efficiency gains from unification are small separation occurs in equilibrium and ii when all factors of production are perfectly mobile all incentives for separation disappear i introduction following the demise of communism the entire map of europe from the atlantic coast to the urals is being redrawn and issues of separation unification and the redrawing of borders are yet again at the forefront of european concerns many of the issues raised by this process are primarily of a political cultural or linguistic nature however there are also economic considerations that bear on this problem the objective of this paper is to analyze some important economic and political determinants of the process of unification and separation of democratic nations the starting point of our analysis is to suppose that from an economic efficiency point of view separation of nations is never desirable a unified nation is always more efficient since free trade among regions is guaranteed duplication costs in defense and law enforcement are avoided and local public goods provision such as transportation and communication networks or common standards can be coordinated furthermore any benefits of decentralization that might be obtained in a world with several nations may also be achieved within a unified nation by replicating the administrative structure of the world with several

economic theories of political dis integration abstract this paper surveys the recent political economy literature on countries incentives to form international unions and or to disintegrate in smaller jurisdictions the main factors that affect these incentives are i economic integration ii the international order iii international spillovers and iv the institutional setting some implications are drawn for the current debate in europe on the political effects of economic integration on the enlargement process and on the distribution of prerogatives between the european union and national governments

economic integration and political disintegration in a world of trade restrictions large countries enjoy economic benefits because political boundaries determine the size of the market under free trade and global markets even relatively small cultural linguistic or ethnic groups can benefit from forming small homogeneous political jurisdictions this paper provides a formal model of the relationship between openness and the equilibrium number and size of countries and successfully tests two implications of the model firstly the economic benefits of country size are mediated by the degree of openness to trade secondly the history of nation state creations and secessions is influenced by the trade regime

a monetary interpretation of the poincare stabilization of 1926 the stabilization of the french franc and economy in mid 1926 under premier raymond poincar6 was so dramatic that it became known as the poincar6 miracle this reform and the economic problems that precipitated it attracted considerable analytical interest during the 1920s lately economists and historians have returned to reexamine this episode yeager 32 focused on it as an example of a country pulling back from the brink of hyperinflation kindleberger 14 used it as an example of the effects of destabilizing expectations sargent 23 pointed to it in support of the contention that a convincing change in regime can quickly stabilize an economy with high inflation without the necessity of prolonged unemployment all three as well as others view the episode as one that hinged critically on a change in fiscal policy as poincar6 moved decisively to balance the budget our purpose is not to disagree with whether a regime change took place or to challenge any particular view of the transition costs of stabilization we argue instead that what poincar6 did was to alter immediately the nature of the monetary regime that was the source of the instability in the french economy during the 1920s if one were to seek a historic parallel for what poincar6 did it would not be in the stabilizations that ended the big hyperinflations that sargent 24 yeager 32 and others 4 17 18 have studied rather it would be in the spirit of the famous accord worked out between the u s treasury and the federal reserve in 1951 2

some colonial evidence on two theories of money maryland and the carolinas recent developments in monetary economics stress the nature of monetary injections emphasizing that they have implications for the relationship between money and prices in contrast traditional approaches posit stable money demand functions that are independent of how money is injected the former approach implies that certain proportionality relations between money and prices need not obtain this permits the two approaches to be empirically distinguished but only if an appropriate experiment is conducted the colonial period is one such experiment colonial evidence suggests that the nature of injections is crucial to the effect on prices of changes in the money supply

an analysis of the impact of sample attrition on the second generation of respondents in the michigan panel study of income dynamics only a few studies have tried to estimate the trend in the elasticity of children s economic status with respect to parents economic status and these studies produce conflicting results in an attempt to reconcile these findings we use the panel study

migration risk and liquidity constraints in el salvador abstract this article utilizes panel data from el salvador to investigate the use of transnational migration as an ex post risk management strategy i show that adverse agricultural conditions in el salvador increase both migration to the united states and remittances sent back to el salvador i show that in the absence of any agricultural shocks the probability that a household sent members to the united states would have decreased on average by 24 26 i also show that the 2001 earthquakes reduced net migration to the united states a one standard deviation increase in earthquake damage reduced the average probability of northward migration by 37 11 the evidence suggests that the effects of the earthquakes had more to do with households retaining labor at home to cope with the effects of the disaster than with the earthquakes disrupting migration financing

the macroeconomic consequences of disasters abstract natural disasters have a statistically observable adverse impact on the macro economy in the short run and costlier events lead to more pronounced slowdowns in production yet interestingly developing countries and smaller economies face much larger output declines following a disaster of similar relative magnitude than do developed countries or bigger economies a close study of the determinants of these adverse macroeconomic output costs reveals several interesting patterns countries with a higher literacy rate better institutions higher per capita income higher degree of openness to trade and higher levels of government spending are better able to withstand the initial disaster shock and prevent further spillovers into the macro economy these all suggest an increased ability to mobilize resources for reconstruction financial conditions also seem to be of importance countries with more foreign exchange reserves and higher levels of domestic credit but with less open capital accounts appear more robust and better able to endure natural disasters with less adverse spillover into domestic production

strong tiebout equilibrium under restricted preferences domain abstract we investigate the existence and give a partial characterization of a strong tiebout equilibrium which consists of an endogenously formed partition of the individuals into disjoint jurisdictions with each jurisdiction producing and financing its own public goods and moreover there exists no group of individuals who can all benefit by establishing their own community in particular no single individual finds it desirable to migrate from his equilibrium jurisdiction the existence proof makes use of the notion of consecutive games which we introduce and show that for such games there always exists a partition with a nonempty core

using weather variability to estimate the response of savings to transitory income in thailand this paper measures the extent to which farmers are able to use savings and dissavings to smooth consumption in response to unexpected shocks to income time series information on regional rainfall is used to construct estimates of transitory income due to rainfall shocks the relationship between these measures of transitory income and savings indicates that farm households save a significantly higher fraction of transitory income than nontransitory income jel d91 016 the incomes of farm households in developing countries are notorious for being both low and uncertain policies that increase the incomes of farmers may well be different

externalities vs internalities a model of political integration abstract decentralized government leads to inter regional externalities whereas an integrated jurisdiction solves the externality problem centralized government entails other costs in particular a neglect for minority interests the paper models formally the trade off between these two forces in determining the optimum as well as the equilibrium design of jurisdictions both the relative size of regions and the distribution of tastes are shown to be important parameters of the problem

historical experiences with flexible exchange rates a simulation of common qualitative characteristics abstract this paper develops an analytical model of price and exchange rate determination which formalizes the evolution of the money supply expectations process calibration and simulation of the model demonstrates its ability to replicate certain stylized facts that characterize 17 historical experiences with flexible currency prices under inflationary conditions furthermore the model proves capable of tracing actual prices and exchange rates in a number of selected historical cases rather than treating each experience as a singular historical event the paper thus constitutes a step towards a general account of the rich experience with flexible exchange rates during the last two centuries

asset substitution money demand and the inflation process in brazil various domestic financial assets in brazil have provided relatively liquid nonmonetary alternatives monthly money demand estimates which include domestic asset opportunity costs and take account of t bill repurchase agreements in a dynamic error correction model demonstrate the importance of domestic substitutes in explaining money holdings money demand appears responsive and stable moreover t bills and indexed bonds have acted as an alternative to central bank liabilities as a source of finance for government deficits evidence indicates that the initial financing of government deficits through bonds bills and other nonmonetary liabilities may explain why money lags price shocks rather than vice versa copyright 1989 by ohio state university press

money credit and wages in hyperinflation post world war i germany an important feature of the german hyperinflation is the way in which accelerating monetization of both government and private debt by the reichsbank fueled the inflation process the stimulus to private credit demand arising from more rapid adjustment of money wages over this period is often ignored however the present empirical results strongly support the importance of wage pressures in augmenting fiscal influences on nominal money growth during 1920 1923 our findings also suggest that wage claims provided the main conduit through which higher inflationary expectations were accommodated by faster rates of monetary expansion

government debt and inflationary expectations as determinants of the money supply in germany 1919 23 1 he growth of the money supply has figured prom1nently in every account of germany s inflation in the 1920s the very word inftation referred more to money growth than to the rise of prices in their models of inflation especially hyperinflation recent economists treat the growth of money as an immediate and often as an exogenous cause of inflation of prices inflationary expectations play an important intermediary role and what expectations process was rational depends chiefly on what process determined the money supply sargent and wallace 1973 webb 1983 pp 443 46 unfortunately economists have rarely looked beyond the numbers at what the reichsbank did and what it left undone to investigate the money supply this paper begins with a model that reflects the central bank s own understanding of its monetary policy during the inflation period the reichsbank followed a passive policy that let the size of the money stock be determined by the government and corporate demand for credit and by the private sector s choice of the mix of debt and money in its portfolios we must see how well such a model explains money growth and whether its coefficients changed signifi

hyperinflations their origins development and termination abstract this paper summarizes and critically surveys research on hyperinflation appraisal and review of the literature considers the origins development termination and the lessons to be learned from hyperinflations the historical evidence as well as the econometric evidence is analyzed it is concluded that while the lessons to be learned from such episodes perhaps have been overstated a number of useful implications may be derived from studying hyperinflations such as an understanding of the forces which link monetary and fiscal policies to inflation and policy makers role in influencing individuals expectations

accountability and decentralisation in government an incomplete contracts model this paper approaches the question of the appropriate level of decentralisation of power in government as a problem in the allocation of control rights under incomplete contracts the model of the paper compares allocations of power to local central and regional government as alternative means of motivating governments to act in the interests of citizens centralisation allows benefits from policy coordination but has costs in terms of diminished accountability which can be precisely defined as the reduced probability that the welfare of a given region can determine the re election of the government the model is extended to allow for conflicts of interest within regions and externalities between central and local governments in a federation it is also applied to determining levels of fiscal transfer between localities and to circumstances where governments may act as leviathans appropriating resources for their own use

pork barrel politics targetable policies and fiscal federalism this article utilizes a simple model of redistributive politics with jurisdictional specific local projects to analyze the inefficiencies that arise under differing levels of targetability in both taxes transfers and local projects the ability to tactically target taxes transfers and or local projects leads political parties to engage in pandering to favored groups however in equilibrium we find that greater targetability in the set of available policies actually intensifies the competition between the political parties and so increases efficiency in the provision of local projects jel d72 h41

risk financial markets and human capital in a developing country this paper explores the link between financial market incompleteness and human capital accumulation we examine how child school attendance responds to seasonal fluctuations in the income of agrarian households using panel data from rural india to pinpoint market imperfections we study responses to aggregate and idiosyncratic as well as to anticipated and unanticipated income shocks our main finding is that seasonal fluctuations in school attendance are a form of self insurance but one which does not result in a substantial loss of human capital on average

process consistency and monetary reform some further evidence abstract in this paper we provide additional evidence that process consistency may have materialized as a restrictive constraint on the money generation process in addition to recomputing the time series of process consistency probabilities using new data from the german case we also supply our empirical technique to the data from the other hyperinflations studied by cagan the results are consistent with our earlier conclusions in extreme hyperinflation process consistency may have materialized as a restrictive constraint on the money generation process

imperfect commitment altruism and the family evidence from transfer behavior in low income rural areas in this paper we examine empirically whether risk pooling is more advantageous among altruistic compared to selfish agents in a framework where individuals cannot make binding commitments in particular we incorporate altuism into a model of risk sharing under imperfect commitment and use simulation methods to establish tests of the roles of both altruism and commitment problems in determining the extent of insurance and the intertemporal movements in interhousehold transfers the tests are carried out using three panel data sets from two countries of rural south asia that provide detailed information on transfers and enable the measurement of income shocks the estimates provide strong support for the notion that imperfect commitment substantially constrains informal transfer arrangements whether kin based or not but also provide evidence that altruism plays an important role in ameliorating commitment constraints and thus in increasing the gains from income pooling

on the number and size of nations this paper studies the equilibrium determination of the number of countries in different political regimes and in different economic environments with more or less economic integration we focus on the trade off between the benefits of large jurisdictions and the costs of heterogeneity of large and diverse populations our model implies that i democratization leads to secessions ii in equilibrium one generally observes an inefficiently large number of countries iii the equilibrium number of countries is increasing in the amount of economic integration

household responses to economic and demographic shocks marginal logit analysis using indonesian data abstract we analyse the responses of indonesian households to demographic and economic shocks and examine how these responses vary in relation to the household s permanent income and the extent to which the shock is common across the community households respond in different ways to demographic and economic shocks economic shocks are more likely to result in a labour supply response from the household and this probability is further increased if the shock is common for rural households use of savings increases with permanent income the article also examines the role of the interviewer in influencing survey responses

natural disasters and labor markets abstract while it is clear that natural disasters have serious welfare consequences for affected populations less is known about how local labor markets in low income countries adjust to such large shocks combining data from the indonesia family life survey the desinventar database the u s geological survey and district level employment indicators this paper explores how a large earthquake in indonesia affected labor market outcomes in particular the evolution of wages across sectors i find that the earthquake had a positive effect on wage growth for workers who were employed in the agricultural sector at baseline i propose two mechanisms for this result a higher growth rate of the price of rice and a downward shift in the supply of workers in the agricultural sector i show that evidence mainly supports the latter labor shifted out of the agricultural sector into the construction sector raising the marginal product of labor in agriculture

the old age security hypothesis reconsidered abstract that the introduction of a means for transferring present to future consumption other than children in a developing country will reduce the rate of population growth is shown to depend crucially on the assumption that parents do not care about the numbers or the welfare of the children they have when parents do care the conclusion no longer unambiguously follows because the new means for providing for parents old age leads to a positive income effect

the impact of conditional cash transfers on consumption and investment in nicaragua abstract this article examines the impact of a nicaraguan conditional cash transfer programme on measures of expenditures and productive investment despite clear evidence from a randomised evaluation that the programme increased current expenditures there is little evidence that it increased agricultural or non agricultural investment an estimated marginal propensity to consume out of the transfers of nearly one combined with no effect of cumulative past transfers on current consumption corroborate the direct evidence on investment in contrast to gains made in human capital investment the potential for long term increases in consumption as a result of other forms of increased investment may be limited

the end of the hungarian hyperinflation of 1945 1946 the rational expectations approach to macroeconomics suggests that hyperinflations were ended abruptly without significant output or unemployment costs using new evidence the author finds that while transition costs did take place following the hungarian hyperinflation of 1945 46 they were not linked to the credibility of the regime change although the evidence presented actually reinforces the rational expectations interpretation of the end of hyperinflations the paper also stresses the importance of distinguishing between an economy experiencing high inflation and one emerging from a milder inflation copyright 1989 by ohio state university press

cagan s model of hyperinflation under rational expectations this paper studies p cagan s model of the german hyperinflation under the hypothesis that adaptive expectations are rational it shows that inference about the key money demand elasticity parameter a is very senstitive to the specification of the dynamic interaction of the unobserved money demand shock with prices and money in particular if t j sargent s 1977 specification is modified then his basic conclusions are overturned identification of a does not require prior knowledge about the covariance of unobserved shock terms and d ata on the german hyperinflation imply a sharp not loose estimate of a which is of plausible magnitude finally informal tests indicate that modifying sargent s specification gives rise to improved model fit copyright 1987 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

distributive politics and the costs of centralization this paper studies the choice between centralization and decentralization of fiscal policy in a political economy setting with centralization regional delegates vote over agendas comprising sets of region specific projects the outcome is inefficient because the choice of projects is insufficiently sensitive to within region benefits the number of projects funded may be non monotonic in the strength of project externalities the efficiency gains from decentralization and the performance of constitutional rules such as majority voting which may be used to choose between decentralization and centralization are then discussed in this framework weaker externalities and more heterogeneity between regions need not increase the efficiency gain from decentralization

two illustrations of the quantity theory of money of two central implications of the quantity theory of money that a given change in the rate of change in the quantity of money induces i an equal change in the rate of price inflation and ii an equal change in nominal rates of interest the illustrations were obtained by comparing moving averages of the three variables in question using quarterly u s time series for the period 1953 77 readers may find the results of interest as additional confirmation of the quantity theory as an example of one way in which the quantity theoretic relationships can be uncovered via atheoretical methods from time series which are subject to a variety of other forces or as a measure of the extent to which the inflation and interest rate experience of the postwar period can be understood in terms of purely classical monetary forces the theoretical background of the study is reviewed very briefly as it is familiar material in the next section the data processing methods are described and rationalized in section ii the illustrations

hyperinflation the exchange rate and endogenous money post world war i germany revisited abstract we re examine the interaction of domestic and external factors in the german hyperinflation by extending frenkel s monetary model of the exchange rate to incorporate 1 endogeneity of the money supply with respect to government debt expected inflation and money wages 2 the direct impact of exchange rate depreciation on the domestic price level and 3 endogenous wage determination four equation estimates support each extension of the monetary model it appears that government deficit finance the collapse of the exchange rate and the monetary transmission of the wage price spiral were all crucial contributors to the price explosion

effects of transitory shocks to aggregate output on consumption in poor countries this paper provides instrumental variables estimates of the response of aggregate private consumption to transitory output shocks in poor countries to identify exogenous unanticipated idiosyncratic and transitory variations in national output we use year to year variations in rainfall as an instrumental variable in a panel of 39 sub saharan african countries during the period 1980 2009 our estimates yield a marginal propensity to consume out of transitory output of around 0 2 to explain this result we show using instrumental variables techniques that there is a significant negative effect of transitory output shocks on net current transfers and a significant positive and quantitatively large effect on the trade balance an important implication is that frictions to private financial flows do not necessarily imply large effects of transitory shocks to aggregate output on private consumption in poor countries