rising inequality and neighbourhood mixing in us metro areas abstractsuperstar cities with high paying creative class jobs venture capital and innovation are thought to be more unequal we analyze mixing in neighbourhoods by income education and occupatio

income inequality in france 1901 1998 this paper uses data from income tax returns 1915 98 wage tax returns 1919 98 and inheritance tax returns 1902 94 in order to compute homogeneous yearly estimates of income wage and wealth inequality for twentieth century france the main conclusion is that the decline in income inequality that took place during the first half of the century was mostly accidental in france and possibly in a number of other countries as well wage inequality has been extremely stable in the long run and the secular decline in income inequality is for the most part a capital income phenomenon holders of large fortunes were badly hurt by major shocks during the 1914 45 period and they were never able to fully recover from these shocks probably because of the dynamic effects of progressive taxation on capital accumulation and pretax income inequality

are ghettos good or bad spatial separation of racial and ethnic groups may theoretically have positive or negative effects on the economic performance of those groups we examine the effects of segregation on outcomes for blacks in schooling employment and single parenthood we find that blacks in more segregated areas have significantly worse outcomes than blacks in less segregated areas we control for the endogeneity of location choice using instruments based on political factors topographical features and residence before adulthood a one standard deviation decrease in segregation would eliminate one third of the black white differences in most of our outcomes

skill biased technological change and rising wage inequality some problems and puzzles the recent rise in wage inequality is usually attributed to skill biased technical change sbtc associated with new computer technologies we review the evidence for this hypothesis focusing on the implications of sbtc for overall wage inequality and for changes in wage differentials between groups a key problem for the sbtc hypothesis is that wage inequality stabilized in the 1990s despite continuing advances in computer technology sbtc also fails to explain the evolution of other dimensions of wage inequality including the gender and racial wage gaps and the age gradient in the return to education

positive and normative judgments implicit in u s tax policy and the costs of unequal growth and recessions calculating the welfare implications of changes to economic policy or shocks requires economists to decide on a normative criterion one approach is to elicit the relevant moral criteria from real world policy choices converting a normative decision into a positive inference as in the recent surge of inverse optimum research we find that capitalizing on the potential of this approach is not as straightforward as we might hope we perform the inverse optimum inference on u s tax policy from 1979 through 2010 and argue that the results either undermine the normative relevance of the approach or challenge conventional assumptions upon which economists routinely rely when performing welfare evaluations

neighborhood wealth distributions abstract this paper uses data from the neighborhood clusters sample of the 1989 american housing survey and the panel study of income dynamics and its 1989 wealth supplement to study the distribution of wealth within us residential neighborhoods it uses the bourguignon decomposable inequality index and finds that wealth is more unequally distributed than income and income more than housing wealth at all levels of aggregation that is neighborhoods metropolitan areas regions and the entire us

attack defence and contagion in networks sanjeev goyal acknowledges support from a keynes fellowship cambridge inet institute and european research area complexity net resilience and interaction of networks in ecology and economics adrien vigier acknowledges support from a gates cambridge fellowship as well as a core fellowship from universite catholique de louvain

on the prevalence of trends in primary commodity prices abstract this paper applies new time series procedures to examine the prebisch singer hypothesis of a secular deterioration in relative primary commodity prices specifically we allow for up to two structural breaks in 24 price series covering the 1900 98 period for the majority of commodities it is shown that the trend is not well represented by a single downward slope but instead by a shifting trend that often changes sign over the sample period unlike some recent work that has also allowed for structural breaks these results provide much less support for the prebisch singer hypothesis

inequality and debt in a model with heterogeneous agents we show that to account for the cross sectional divergence in debt to income ratios in us data a dsge model must assume a tax reallocation across the top and bottom income quantile of the population rather than differential productivity growth and low cost of access to financial intermediation

levels and trends in u s income and its distribution a crosswalk from market income towards a comprehensive haig simons income approach recent research on u s levels and trends in income inequality varies substantially based on how these studies measure income we crosswalk move between standards from a market income of tax units to a more comprehensive measure of income including realized capital gains of households using a unified data set and replicate common findings in the literature by using a comprehensive income definition in the spirit of haig simons considering yearly accrued capital gains rather than focusing on the delayed reporting of capital gains that appear in internal revenue service tax return data the observed growth in income inequality and top income shares since 1989 is dramatically reduced

are younger generations higher carbon emitters than their elders inequalities generations and co2 emissions in france and in the usa abstract proper understanding of the determinants of household co2 emissions is essential for a shift to sustainable lifestyles this paper explores the impacts of date of birth and income on household co2 emissions in france and in the usa direct co2 emissions of french and american households are computed from consumer budget surveys over the 1980 2000 time period age period cohort estimators are used to isolate the generational effect on co2 emissions i e the specific effect of date of birth independent of the age the year and other control variables the paper shows that french 1935 55 cohorts have a stronger tendency to emit co2 than their predecessors and followers the generational effect is explained by the fact that over their lifespan french baby boomers are better off than other generations and live in energy and carbon inefficient dwellings in the usa the absence of a generational effect on co2 emissions can be explained by the fact that intergenerational income inequalities are weaker than in france persistence of the generational effect once income and housing type is controlled for in france can be explained by the difficulty for french 1935 55 cohorts to adapt to sober energy consumption patterns

networks in conflict theory and evidence from the great war of africa we study from both a theoretical and an empirical perspective how a network of military alliances and enmities affects the intensity of a conflict the model combines elements from network theory and from the politico economic theory of conflict we obtain a closed form characterization of the nash equilibrium using the equilibrium conditions we perform an empirical analysis using data on the second congo war a conflict that involves many groups in a complex network of informal alliances and rivalries the estimates of the fighting externalities are then used to infer the extent to which the conflict intensity can be reduced through i dismantling specific fighting groups involved in the conflict ii weapon embargoes iii interventions aimed at pacifying animosity among groups finally with the aid of a random utility model we study how policy shocks can induce a reshaping of the network structure

networks of collaboration in oligopoly abstract in an oligopoly prior to competing in the market firms have an opportunity to form pair wise collaborative links with other firms these pair wise links involve a commitment of resources and lead to lower costs of production of the collaborating firms we study the incentives of firms to form links and the architecture of the resulting collaboration network we find that incentives to form links are intimately related to the nature of market competition our analysis also suggests that collaborations are used by firms to generate competitive advantage and that strategically stable networks are often asymmetric with some firms having many links while others have few links or are isolated specifically we show that networks with the dominant group architecture stars and inter linked stars are stable we also present some results on the architecture of socially efficient networks

the alliance formation puzzle and capacity constraints the formation of an alliance in conflict situations is known to suffer from a collective action problem and from the potential of internal conflict we show that budget constraints of an intermediate size can overcome this strong disadvantage and explain the formation of alliances

reordering inequality and divergent growth processes of neighbourhood change in dutch cities neighbourhood socioeconomic change is often related to structural processes that transform urban income compositions in the netherlands restructuring of the welfare state and the housing market a

income inequality and class divides in parental investments historic increases in income inequality have coincided with widening class divides in parental investments of money and time in children these widening class gaps are significant because parental investment is one pathway by which advantage is transmitted across generations using over three decades of micro data from the consumer expenditure survey and the american heritage time use survey linked to state year measures of income inequality we test the relationship between income inequality and class gaps in parental investment we find robust evidence of wider class gaps in parental financial investments in children but not parental time investments in children when state level income inequality is higher we explore mechanisms that may drive the relationship between rising income inequality and widening class gaps in parental financial investments in children this relationship is partially explained by the increasing concentration of income at the top of the income distribution in state years with hi

have structural changes eliminated the out of sample ability of financial variables to forecast real activity after the mid 1980s evidence from the canadian economy this article evaluates how consistently reliable the information content of individual financial variables is for canada s future output growth we estimate the timing of structural changes in linear growth models and check robustness to specification changes multiple breaks and business cycle asymmetry our simulated out of sample forecast evaluation strategy using the mean square error f type mse f and the new encompassing enc new tests shows that the leading information content of most financial variables for canada s future gross domestic product gdp growth has deteriorated substantially after 1984 04 but the 1 3 year term spread exhibits a consistently reliable predictive ability at the 1 and 2 quarter horizons and has significant forecasting ability at the 8 quarter horizon also the real m1 money growth has regained its ability to forecast output growth since 1991 01

intended college attendance evidence from an experiment on college returns and costs abstract we conduct an information experiment about college returns and costs embedded within a representative survey of us household heads baseline perceptions of college costs and benefits are substantially biased with larger biases among lower income and non college households respondents are randomly exposed to objective information about average college returns or costs we find a significant impact of the returns experiment persisting in a follow up survey two months later intended college attendance expectations increase by about 0 2 of the standard deviation in the baseline likelihood and gaps by household income or parents education decline by 20 30 we find no impact of the cost information treatment further analysis supports the information s salience as opposed to information based updating as the main channel through which the returns intervention impacts intentions

the income and tax share of very high income households 1960 1995 this paper presents new information on the fraction of adjusted gross income and of wages and salaries that is reported by taxpayers in the top one half of one percent of the income distribution this corresponds to roughly five hundred thousand households in the late 1990s this paper relies on data from the treasury s individual income tax model for the period 1960 1995 the definition of adjusted gross income is standardized so that changes in the tax law do not affect the measured concentration of agi the results suggest that the share of agi reported by the highest income households increased significantly between the early 1980s and the mid 1990s with most of the increase taking place in the years immediately following the tax reform act of 1986 while we find some evidence of transitory changes in the concentration of income around major tax changes which may be the result of income retiming by high income taxpayers re timing does not seem to explain most of the changes since 1986 this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

top incomes in germany and switzerland over the twentieth century this paper presents new homogeneous series on top income shares in germany 1891 1998 and switzerland 1933 1995 using data from income tax returns the general pattern is consistent with recent results for france the secular decline in income inequality is for the most part an accidental capital income phenomenon very top incomes were badly hurt by the major shocks of the 1914 1945 period and never fully recovered afterwards since 1945 top income shares have been relatively stable with no rise during recent years unlike in the u s the striking episode before wwii is how nazi power brought top income shares to almost double within five years the striking result after wwii is that german top incomes are more concentrated within the top decile than in other industrialized countries thus the german super rich were richer than their american counterparts until the 1990s this puzzle is related to the much lower inheritance tax rates observed in germany since wwii jel n33 n34 h23 h24 h23 h24 h23 h24 h23 h24

how population structure shapes neighborhood segregation this study provides a framework for understanding how population composition conditions the relationship between individuals choices about group affiliation and aggregate patterns of social separation or integration the substantive focus is the role of income inequality in racial residential segregation the author identifies three population parameters between group inequality within group inequality and relative group size that determine how income inequality between race groups affects racial segregation she uses data from the panel study of income dynamics to estimate models of individual level residential mobility and incorporates these estimates into agent based models she then simulates segregation dynamics under alternative assumptions about 1 the relative size of minority groups and 2 the degree of correlation between race and income among individuals the author finds that income inequality can have offsetting effects at the high and low ends of the income distribution she demonstrate

contest functions theoretical foundations and issues in estimation contest functions alternatively contest success functions determine probabilities of winning and losing as a function of contestants e ort they are used widely in many areas of economics that employ contest games from tournaments and rent seeking to conflict and sports we first examine the theoretical foundations of contest functions and classify them into four types of derivation stochastic axiomatic optimally derived and microfounded the additive form which includes the ratio or tullock functional form can be derived in all four di erent ways we also explore issues in the econometric estimation of contest functions including concerns with data endogeneity and model comparison

monetary impacts and overshooting of agricultural prices in an open economy this article s focus is on the time adjustment paths of the exchange rate and prices in response to unanticipated monetary shocks first we expand the theoretical specification of the overshooting hypothesis by generalizing dornbusch s model to include a third sector i e agricultural prices second we employ johansen s cointegration test along with a vector error correction model to investigate whether agricultural prices overshoot in an open economy the empirical results indicate that agricultural prices adjust faster than industrial prices to innovations in the money supply affecting relative prices in the short run but strict long run money neutrality does not hold copyright 2002 oxford university press

on the long run evolution of inheritance france 1820 2050 this paper attempts to document and account for the long run evolution of inheritance we find that in a country like france the annual flow of inheritance was about 20 25 of national income between 1820 and 1910 down to less than 5 in 1950 and back up to about 15 by 2010 a simple theoretical model of wealth accumulation growth and inheritance can fully account for the observed u shaped pattern and levels using this model we find that under plausible assumptions the annual bequest flow might reach about 20 25 of national income by 2050 this corresponds to a capitalized bequest share in total wealth accumulation well above 100 our findings illustrate the fact that when the growth rate g is small and when the rate of return to private wealth r is permanently and substantially larger than the growth rate say r 4 5 vs g 1 2 which was the case in the 19th century and early 20th century and is likely to happen again in the 21st century then past wealth and inheritance are bound to play a key role for aggregate wealth accumulation and the structure of lifetime inequality contrarily to a widely spread view modern economic growth did not kill inheritance

social class and income inequality in the united states ownership authority and personal income distribution from 1980 to 2010 this study outlines a theory of social class based on workplace ownership and authority relations and it investigates the link between social class and growth in personal income inequality since the 1980s inequality trends are governed by changes in between class income differences changes in the relative size of different classes and changes in within class income dispersion data from the general social survey are used to investigate each of these changes in turn and to evaluate their impact on growth in inequality at the population level results indicate that between class income differences grew by about 60 since the 1980s and that the relative size of different classes remained fairly stable a formal decomposition analysis indicates that changes in the relative size of different social classes had a small dampening effect and that growth in between class income differences had a large inflationary effect on trends in personal income inequality

oil and the macroeconomy since world war ii all but one of the u s recessions since world war ii have been preceded typically with a lag of around three fourths of a year by a dramatic increase in the price of crude petroleum this does not mean that oil shocks caused these recessions evidence is presented however that even over the period 1948 72 this correlation is statistically significant and nonspurious supporting the proposition that oil shocks were a contributing factor in at least some of the u s recessions prior to 1972 by extension energy price increases may account for much of post opec macroeconomic performance

population technology and fragmentation the european miracle revisited abstract the effects of political fragmentation on long run development seem to have changed over the course of human history technological leaders used to be empires but the industrial revolution started in the fragmented europe this paper sets up a model to help us think about this puzzle there are two sets of mechanisms at play a standard scale effect which benefits unified regions since technology is a non rivalrous good and several competition effects both negative like wasteful armies and positive incentives to invest in new technologies we apply the model to analyze the preindustrial divergence between china and europe

the effects of school spending on educational and economic outcomes evidence from school finance reforms since the coleman report many have questioned whether public school spending affects student outcomes the school finance reforms that began in the early 1970s and accelerated in the 1980s caused dramatic changes to the structure of k 12 education spending in the united states to study the effect of these school finance reform induced changes in public school spending on long run adult outcomes we link school spending and school finance reform data to detailed nationally representative data on children born between 1955 and 1985 and followed through 2011 we use the timing of the passage of court mandated reforms and their associated type of funding formula change as exogenous shifters of school spending and we compare the adult outcomes of cohorts that were differentially exposed to school finance reforms depending on place and year of birth event study and instrumental variable models reveal that a 10 increase in per pupil spending each year for all 12 years of public school leads to 0 31 more completed years of education about 7 higher wages and a 3 2 percentage point reduction in the annual incidence of adult poverty effects are much more pronounced for children from low income families exogenous spending increases were associated with notable improvements in measured school inputs including reductions in student to teacher ratios increases in teacher salaries and longer school years jel codes j10 i20 h7

the effects of housing and neighborhood conditions on child mortality in this paper we estimate the causal effects on child mortality from moving into less distressed neighborhood environments we match mortality data covering the period from 1997 to 2009 with information on every child in public housing that applied for a housing voucher in chicago in 1997 n 11 680 families were randomly assigned to the voucher wait list and only some families were offered vouchers the odds ratio for the effects of being offered a housing voucher on overall mortality rates is equal to 1 13 for all children 95 ci 0 73 1 70 1 34 for boys 95 ci 0 85 2 05 and 0 21 for girls 95 ci 0 01 1 04

residential income segregation a behavioral model of the housing market abstract we represent the functioning of the housing market and study the relation between income segregation income inequality and house prices by introducing a spatial agent based model abm differently from traditional models in urban economics we explicitly specify the behavior of buyers and sellers and the price formation mechanism buyers who differ by income select among heterogeneous neighborhoods using a probabilistic model of residential choice sellers employ an aspiration level heuristic to set their reservation offer price prices are determined through a continuous double auction we first provide an approximate analytical solution of the abm shedding light on the structure of the model and on the effect of the parameters we then simulate the abm and find that i a more unequal income distribution lowers the prices globally but implies stronger segregation ii a spike in demand in one part of the city increases the prices all over the city iii subsidies are more efficient than taxes in fostering social mixing

axiomatizing multi prize nested lottery contests a complete and strict ranking perspective abstract multiple prizes are usually awarded in contests e g internal promotions school admissions sports etc and players exert effort to increase their chances for winning a higher prize a multi prize contest model must provide each player s probabilities of winning each prize as functions of all players efforts we find that the key notion of hypothetical subcontests in the contest axiomatization literature initiated by skaperdas 1996 can be appropriately interpreted and precisely defined from a ranking perspective as well as the relevant axioms of subcontest consistency and independence of irrelevant contestants iic when there are less than four contestants exclusive a set of axioms properly adapted from those in skaperdas 1996 and clark and riis 1998a are sufficient and necessary for axiomatizing the widely adopted multi prize nested lottery contest of clark and riis 1996a when there are more than four contestants inclusive including a new axiom of independence of irrelevant ranks iir is necessary and sufficient

the need to rethink agricultural policy in general and to perform some radical surgery on commodity programs in particular there were some 6 8 million farmers in the united states in 1935 this was the highwater mark for the number of farms in the united states of this total there were a good number of small low production farms in the south one mule sharecropper farms and a good number of small subsistence farms in appalachia and the cut over regions of the lake states at the other end of the size scale there were some very large farms often of the corporate type in california south texas and along the mississippi delta but the overwhelming number of farms in the united states in the mid 1930s were moderate sized family farms in the midwest these farms tended to run between 100 and 200 acres in size in the typical case the family provided the labor and the management of the farming operation and had some equity in it this was a period of deep dark depression

the polarization of the u s labor market this paper analyzes a marked change in the evolution of the u s wage structure over the past fifteen years divergent trends in upper tail 90 50 and lower tail 50 10 wage inequality we document that wage inequality in the top half of distribution has displayed an unchecked and rather smooth secular rise for the last 25 years since 1980 wage inequality in the bottom half of the distribution also grew rapidly from 1979 to 1987 but it has ceased growing and for some measures actually narrowed since the late 1980s furthermore we find that occupational employment growth shifted from monotonically increasing in wages education in the 1980s to a pattern of more rapid growth in jobs at the top and bottom relative to the middles of the wage education distribution in the 1990s we characterize these patterns as the u201cpolarization u201d of the u s labor market with employment polarizing into high wage and low wage jobs at the expense of middle wage work we show how a model of computerization in which computers most strongly complement the non routine abstract cognitive tasks of high wage jobs directly substitute for the routine tasks found in many traditional middle wage jobs and may have little direct impact on non routine manual tasks in relatively low wage jobs can help explain the observed polarization of the u s labor market this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

long term neighborhood effects on low income families evidence from moving to opportunity abstract we examine long term neighborhood effects on low income families using data from the moving to opportunity mto randomized housing mobility experiment this experiment offered to some public housing families but not to others the chance to move to less disadvantaged neighborhoods we show that ten to 15 years after baseline mto i improves adult physical and mental health ii has no detectable effect on economic outcomes or youth schooling or physical health and iii has mixed results by gender on other youth outcomes with girls doing better on some measures and boys doing worse despite the somewhat mixed pattern of impacts on traditional behavioral outcomes mto moves substantially improve adult subjective well being

income inequality in the united states 1913 1998 this paper presents new homogeneous series on top shares of income and wages from 1913 to 1998 in the united states using individual tax returns data top income and wages shares display a u shaped pattern over the century our series suggest that the large shocks that capital owners experienced during the great depression and world war ii have had a permanent effect on top capital incomes we argue that steep progressive income and estate taxation may have prevented large fortunes from fully recovering from these shocks top wage shares were flat before world war ii dropped precipitously during the war and did not start to recover before the late 1960s but are now higher than before world war ii as a result the working rich have replaced the rentiers at the top of the income distribution

labor supply in the past present and future a balanced growth perspective the absence of a trend in hours worked in the postwar united states is an exception across countries and historically hours fall steadily by a little below 0 5 per year are steadily falling hou

why have poorer neighbourhoods stagnated economically while the richer have flourished neighbourhood income inequality in canadian cities higher income neighbourhoods in canada s eight largest cities flourished economically during the past quarter century while lower income communities stagnated this paper identifies some of the underlying processes that led to this outcome increasing family income inequality drove much of the rise in neighbourhood inequality increased spatial economic segregation the increasing tendency of like to live nearby like also played a role it is shown that these changes originated in the labour market changes in investment pension income and government transfers played a very minor role yet it was not unemployment that differentiated the richer from poorer neighbourhoods rather it was the type of job found particularly the annual earnings generated the end result has been little improvement in economic resources in poor neighbourhoods during a period of substantial economic growth and a rise in neighbourhood income inequality

anarchy and its breakdown anarchy defined as a system in which participants can seize and defend resources without regulation from above is not chaos but rather a spontaneous order however anarchy is fragile and may dissolve either into formless amorphy or into a more organized system such as hierarchy under anarchy each contestant balances between productive exploitation of the current resource base and fighting to acquire or defend resources anarchy is sustainable only when there are strongly diminishing returns to fighting effort the decisiveness parameter is sufficiently low and incomes exceed the viability minimum these considerations explain many features of animal and human conflict

conflict and distribution abstract we develop a behavioral model that links the level and pattern of social conflict to the societywide distribution of individual characteristics the model can be applied to groups that differ in characteristics such as wealth ethnicity religion and political ideology we settle questions of existence and uniqueness of conflict equilibrium conflict is seen to be closely connected with the bimodality of the underlying distribution of characteristics however in general the conflict distribution relationship is nonlinear and surprisingly complex our results on conflict patterns also throw light on the phenomena of extremism and moderation journal of economic literature classification numbers d63 d72 d74

pareto and piketty the macroeconomics of top income and wealth inequality abstract since the early 2000s research by thomas piketty emmanuel saez and their coauthors has revolutionized our understanding of income and wealth inequality in this paper i highlight some of the key empirical facts from this research and comment on how they relate to macroeconomics and to economic theory more generally one of the key links between data and theory is the pareto distribution the paper describes simple mechanisms that give rise to pareto distributions for income and wealth and considers the economic forces that influence top inequality over time and across countries for example it is in this context that the role of the famous r g expression is best understood

how did the increase in economic inequality between 1970 and 1990 affect children s educational attainment 1 this study estimates the effect of changes in economic inequality between 1970 and 1990 on children s educational attainment data on individual children from the panel study of income dynamics is combined with other data on state characteristics growing up in a state with widespread economic inequality increases educational attainment for high income children and lowers it for low income children most of the effect is due to factors unassociated with family income or economic segregation in the state these other factors include state spending for schooling and the increase in the returns to schooling over this period

auctionin entry into tournaments a research tournament model with heterogeneous contestants is presented for a large class of contests the optimal number of competitors is two this insight makes designing the tournament easier and highlights the importance of selecting highly qualified contestants while customary uniform price and discriminatory price auctions are intuitively appealing mechanisms for solving this adverse selection problem in practice they generally will not be efficient mechanism for selecting contestants instead we propose an alternative auction format that is equally simple to implement and efficiently selects the most qualified contestants to compete regardless of the form of contestant heterogeneity

ethnicity and conflict an empirical study this paper examines the impact of ethnic divisions on conict the empirical specication is informed by a theoretical model of conict esteban and ray 2011 in which equilibrium conict is related to just three distributional indices of diversity ethnic polarization ethnic fractionalization and a greenberg gini index constructed across ethnic groups our empirical ndings verify that these distributional measures are signicant correlates of conict the underlying theory permits us to use these results to make inferences about the relative importance of public goods in conict as well as the extent of within group cohesion in conictual activity these eects are further strengthened as we introduce country specic measures of group cohesion and the relative importance of public goods and combine them with the distributional measures exactly as specied by the theory

linking conflict to inequality and polarization in this paper we study a behavioral model of conflict that provides a basis for choosing certain indices of dispersion as indicators for conflict we show that a suitable monotone transform of the equilibrium level of conflict can be proxied by a linear function of the gini coefficient the herfindahl hirschman fractionalization index and a specific measure of polarization due to esteban and ray jel classification d74 d31

income inequality and income segregation this article investigates how the growth in income inequality from 1970 to 2000 affected patterns of income segregation along three dimensions the spatial segregation of poverty and affluence race specific patterns of income segregation and the geographic scale of income segregation the evidence reveals a robust relationship between income inequality and income segregation an effect that is larger for black families than for white families in addition income inequality affects income segregation primarily through its effect on the large scale spatial segregation of affluence rather than by affecting the spatial segregation of poverty or by altering small scale patterns of income segregation

focusing on the specific problems of agriculture a fresh look at an old policy approach in a paper which i presented to this association last summer at ames iowa i argued that the commodity programs had outlived their usefulness were in fact creating serious social and economic problems and should be eliminated at the earliest opportunity cochrane i will not repeat those arguments in this paper but i also opened up the argument in that paper that policy oriented economists should focus on the specific problems of agriculture by defining describing and analyzing those specific problems and then developing program solutions to them where they appear to merit collective governmental action i want to develop this line of argument more fully in this paper in my last summer s paper i set forth a list of ten specific problem areas in agriculture on which i believe present day policy oriented economists should focus their attention that list is as follows a the current farm credit crisis b the economic survival of some 400 000 moderate sized family farms c the impact of the overvalued dollar on farm exports d barriers to trade ranging from the restrictive policies of most state trading nations to quantitative controls to old fashioned tariffs e the price and income instability problem the propensity for farm prices and incomes to swing up and down widely and sharply in an unpredictable fashion f widespread soil erosion g the depletion of underground water sources and the pollution of those sources with toxic wastes h the importation and management of foreign workers to undertake stoop labor i f deral taxing policies that contribute to unneeded output expansion and resource concentration in farming and j hunger and malnutrition both at home and abroad

the effect of marginal tax rates on taxable income a panel study of the 1986 tax reform act this paper uses a treasury department panel of more than 4 000 taxpayers to estimate the sensitivity of taxable income to changes in tax rates on the basis of a comparison of the tax returns of the same individual taxpayers before and after the 1986 tax reform the analysis emphasizes that the response of taxable income involves much more than a change in the traditional measures of labor supply the evidence shows an elasticity of taxable income with respect to the marginal net of tax rate that is at least one and could be substantially higher the implications for recent tax rate changes are discussed

schelling s spatial proximity model of segregation revisited schelling schelling t c 1969 models of segregation american economic review papers and proceedings 59 488 493 schelling t c 1971a dynamic models of segregation journal of mathematical sociology 1 2 143 186 schelling t c 1971b on the ecology of micromotives the public interest 25 61 98 schelling t c 1978 micromotives and macrobehavior new york norton presented a microeconomic model showing how an integrated city could unravel to a rather segregated city notwithstanding relatively mild assumptions concerning the individual agents preferences i e no agent preferring the resulting segregation we examine the robustness of schelling s model focusing in particular on its driving force the individual preferences we show that even if all individual agents have a strict preference for perfect integration best response dynamics may lead to segregation this raises some doubts on the ability of public policies to generate integration through the promotion of openness and tolerance with respect to diversity we also argue that the one dimensional and two dimensional versions of schelling s spatial proximity model are in fact two qualitatively very different models of segregation

income inequality the consequences of skill upgrading when firms have hierarchical organizational structures during the last three decades most developed countries have experienced increasing income inequality using danish register data from 1992 to 2007 for all private sector employees we confirm that income inequality has increased in denmark we also observe an increase in the relative employment of highly educated individuals as well as differential income growth rates across employee subgroups where in particular managers experienced significant real income progression we use an equilibrium search framework with on the job search to derive the income distribution in this model we can determine the management and education premia we can also show that when our model is exposed to skill upgrading it is capable of producing income dynamics similar to those observed in the danish income distribution jel j3 j6 m5

conflict and rent seeking success functions ratio vs difference models of relative success the rent seeking competitions studied by economists fall within a much broader category of conflict interactions that also includes military combats election campaigns industrial disputes lawsuits and sibling rivalries in the rent seeking literature each party s success pi which can be interpreted either as the probability of victory or as the proportion of the prize won has usually been taken to be a function of the ratio of the respective resource commitments alternatively however pi may instead be a function of the difference between the parties commitments to the contest the contest success function csf for the difference from is a logistic curve in which as is consistent with military experience increasing returns apply up to an inflection point at equal resource commitments a crucial flaw of the traditional ratio model is that neither onesided submission nor two sided peace between the parties can ever occur as a cournot equilibrium in contrast both of these outcomes are entirely consistent with a model in which success is a function of the difference between the parties resource commitments

political self serving bias and redistribution we explore the impact of the self serving bias on the supply and demand for redistribution we present results from an experiment in which participants decide on redistribution after performing a real effort task dependent on individual performance participants are divided into two groups successful and unsuccessful participants success is exogenously determined because they are randomly assigned to either a hard or easy task however because participants are not told which task they were assigned to there is ambiguity as to whether success or failure should be attributed to internal or external factors participants take two redistribution decisions first they choose a supply of redistribution in a situation where no personal interests are at stake second they choose a redistributive system behind a veil of ignorance our results confirm and expand previous findings on the self serving bias successful participants are more likely to attribute their success to their effort rather than luck and they opt for less redistribution unsuccessful participants tend to attribute their failure to external factors and opt for more redistribution we demonstrate that the self serving bias contributes to a polarization of the views on redistribution

collective action and the group size paradox according to the olson paradox larger groups may be less successful than smaller groups in furthering their interests we address the issue in a model with three distinctive features explicit intergroup interaction collective prizes with a varying mix of public and private characteristics and nonlinear lobbying costs the interplay of these features leads to new results when the cost of lobbying has the elasticity of a quadratic function or higher larger groups are more effective no matter how private the prize with smaller elasticities a threshold degree of publicness is enough to overturn the olson argument and this threshold tends to zero as the elasticity approaches the value for a quadratic function we also demonstrate that these results are true irrespective of whether we examine group sizes over the cross section in some given equilibrium or changes in the size of a given group over different equilibria

this is what happened to the oil price macroeconomy relationship abstract many of the quarterly oil price increases observed since 1985 are corrections to even bigger oil price decreases the previous quarter when one looks at the net increase in oil prices over the year recent data are consistent with the historical correlation between oil shocks and recessions

inequality among american families with children 1975 to 2005 from 1975 to 2005 the variance in incomes of american families with children increased by two thirds in attempting to explain this trend labor market studies emphasize the rising pay of college graduates while demographers typically highlight the implications of family structural changes across time in this article we join these lines of research by conceiving of income inequality as the joint product of the distribution of earnings in the labor market and the pooling of incomes in families we develop this framework with a decomposition of family income inequality using annual data from the march current population survey our analysis shows that disparities in education and single parenthood contributed to income inequality but rising educational attainment and women s employment offset these effects most of the increase in family income inequality was due to increasing within group inequality which was widely shared across family types and levels of schooling

variations in the environment energy and macroeconomic interdependencies and related renewable energy transition policies based on sensitive categorization of countries in africa abstract the disparities in development levels of countries in africa necessitate correspondingly sensitive categorization approaches because effective renewable energy related rer decisions policy making and subsequent implementation hinges on workable categorization indices however studies on sensitive categorization approaches for energy environment economy 3e interdependencies for africa is rare this study uses a sensitive characteristic driven approach to explore the interdependencies in 3e indicators for carbon dioxide co2 emissions renewable energy consumption rec fossil fuel energy consumption gross domestic product gdp population and gross fixed capital formation in 39 african countries further we forecast the dollar values of policy innovations necessary to facilitate the transition to 100 renewable energies for 2030 using balanced data spanning 2000 2014 the empirical results from the panel vector error correction model show long run granger causality in co2 emissions rec and gdp models for africa but no evidence of such relationship was found four sub panels the results depict varied individual unidirectional and bidirectional causalities among the variables in each panel evidence from variance decomposition analysis show that 93 of innovations required to achieve renewable energy led africa must happen in rec results from the high precision own data driven forecast puts total energy demand in africa at 25qbtu in 2030 with 40 from renewables estimates of the dollar value of innovations depict that it would cost africa us 3367 2 billion in 2030 only to transition to 100 renewables we find rer investment reris in billion us ranging from 2 69 to 1274 12 for seven sub panels yet the panel of moderate lower middle income economies need not to make further investments because their existing reirs could be enough to help the region reach 100 renewables by 2030 the findings herein imply that rer policies in africa must be intensified to achieve 100 renewable energy target

the impact of income inequality on economic residential segregation the case of malmo 1991 2010 as in other western countries in sweden there is a widespread conviction that residential segregation influences the opportunities for residents social mobility and therefore is a cause of income

what happens when you tax the rich evidence from executive compensation this paper examines the responsiveness of taxable income to changes in marginal tax rates using detailed compensation data on several thousand corporate executives from 1991 to 1995 the data confirm that the higher marginal rates of 1993 led to a significant decline in taxable income indeed this small group of executives may account for as much as 20 percent of the aggregate change in wage and salary income for approximately the one million richest taxpayers over this time period one person alone can account for more than 2 percent the decline however is almost entirely a short run shift in the timing of compensation rather than a permanent reduction in taxable income the short run elasticity of taxable income with respect to the net of tax share exceeds one in this sample but the elasticity after one year is at most 0 4 and probably closer to zero breaking out the tax responsiveness of different types of compensation shows that the large short run responses come almost entirely from a large inc

the elasticity of taxable income during the 1990s new estimates and sensitivity analyses author affiliation seth h giertz sgiertz2 unl edu acknowledgment the author wishes to thank david weiner ed harris bob dennis doug hamilton tom woodward emmanuel saez chris bollinger and three anonymous referees for their comments and assistance 1 introductioneconomists have long recognized that taxation creates economic inefficiency by distorting relative prices often between leisure and all other goods in the economy even a broad based income tax can have substantial efficiency costs so long as leisure remains untaxed harberger 1964 uses this as motivation for comparing the efficiency implications of direct versus indirect taxation in so doing he shows how labor supply elasticities can be used to measure the efficiency implications of income taxation 1 harberger s analysis had a profound influence on public and labor economists spurring increased research into labor supply elasticities which were seen as proxies for the efficiency costs from taxation more than two decades after harberger economists began to emphasize the variety of other margins over which taxes can distort behavior in addition to hours worked these economists noted that these other behavioral responses may too have important implications for efficiency an important building block in the evolution of this literature was set forth by slemrod 1990 who presented a hierarchy of behavioral responses to taxation slemrod divided behavior into three categories based on their responsiveness to taxes his least responsive category real responses includes individuals changing consumption and work patterns and businesses altering investment and production decisions second in order of responsiveness is circumvention which includes both illegally evasion and legally avoidance bypassing the tax system 2 in the case of evasion income is concealed from tax authorities or factors that offset tax liabilities such as expenses and deductions are inflated beyond what is legally permitted in the case of avoidance income is shifted in order to receive more favorable tax treatment diverting income into a tax deferred retirement account is an example of avoidance 3 included in circumvention is the expenditure of time and money necessary to avoid or evade taxation third on the hierarchy and the most responsive is the timing of income receipt which includes pulling the receipt of income into the previous year or pushing it into the next in order to take advantage of more favorable tax treatment while not altering real behavior 4 slemrod further recognizes that the type of behavioral response could have implications for both tax revenue and tax incidence and in some cases efficiency predating slemrod s insights lindsey 1987 produced elasticity estimates for taxable income although what lindsey termed taxable income more closely approximates adjusted gross income agi instead of labor supply 5 lindsey s estimated elasticities were much larger than the labor supply literature would have suggested lindsey emphasized the revenue implications of the elasticity of taxable income eti but not its efficiency implications building on slemrod and lindsey feldstein 1995 produced eti estimates but went much further than lindsey in describing the behaviors that could affect taxable income he argued that many of these behaviors were not captured by labor supply elasticities furthermore feldstein posited that income taxation creates economic inefficiency not only by distorting the relative price between labor and leisure but more broadly by distorting the relative price between goods or activities that are taxed and those that are not taxed since leisure is not the only untaxed activity for example in response to taxes not only work hours but also work effort might change

long term trends in earnings inequality what the cps can tell us abstract changes in current population survey cps topcoding rules in the 1990s artificially increased measured earnings inequality we create a time consistent cps data series and compare trends in earnings inequality from 1975 to 2001

a strategic model of social and economic networks we study the stability and efficiency of social and economic networks when self interested individuals can form or sever links first for two stylized models we characterize the stable and efficient networks there does not always exist a stable network that is efficient next we show that this tension persists generally to assure that there exists a stable network that is efficient one is forced to allocate resources to nodes that are not responsible for any of the production we characterize one such allocation rule the equal split rule and another rule that arises naturally from bargaining of the players

an analysis of multiple structural breaks in us relative farm prices the movement of farm prices relative to other commodity prices is analysed for the period 1913 01 to 2003 12 investigating the number and time of structural breaks and discussing likely causes of structural breaks in the relative farm prices bai and perron s 1998 2003 multiple structural change test with a dynamic programming algorithm is used this test makes it possible to have an efficient computation of the estimates of the break points as global minimizers of the sum of squared residuals we find six structural breaks when we consider only the mean process and two breaks when we consider the mean and autoregressive processes possible causes for these breaks are discussed

taxation and top incomes in canada we estimate the elasticity of reported income with respect to tax rates for high earners using sub national variation across canadian provinces we argue this allows for better identification of tax elasticities than the existing literature we find that elasticities of reported income at the provincial level are large for incomes in the top 1 but small for lower earners there are strong indications that the response happens both through earned and capital income while our estimated elasticities are large changes in tax rates cannot explain much of the overall long run trend of higher income concentration in canada resume fiscalite et revenus les plus eleves au canada les auteurs evaluent l elasticite du revenu declare par rapport aux taux d imposition pour les revenus les plus eleves en utilisant les variations intra nationales a travers les provinces du canada ils suggerent que cela produit une meilleure identification des elasticites que ce que contient la litterature pour le moment on decouvre que les elasticites du revenu declare sont elevees pour les 1 au sommet mais faibles pour les revenus plus bas il appert fortement que la reponse se produit tant pour les revenus gagnes que pour les revenus d investissement meme si les elasticites mesurees sont elevees les changements dans les taux d imposition ne peuvent pas expliquer beaucoup de la tendance a long terme vers une plus forte concentration des hauts revenus au canada

neighborhood income distributions this paper studies the distribution of income within neighborhoods and contrasts it with the national income distribution it relies on a unique feature of the american housing survey whose 1985 1989 and 1993 waves of interviews provide data for small residential neighborhoods these consist of a dwelling unit and up to ten of its nearest neighbors most previous work on neighborhoods has used information for much larger groupings of the population such as census tracts the paper employs a variety of parametric and nonparametric econometric tools to study income sorting across us residential neighborhoods it documents the patterns of dependence among neighbors income and imperfect sorting with moderate but very significant correlation among incomes of neighbors and of considerable income mixing in u s neighborhoods

the kuznets curve and the great u turn income inequality in u s counties 1970 to 1990 the authors examine the determinants of inequality in the distribution of family income in approximately 3 100 counties of the united states in 1970 1980 and 1990 such a study provides a window on global trends in social inequality during the period which spans the tail end of the kuznets curve and the more recent upswing in income inequality results from random effects regression models that control for unmeasured heterogeneity among states reveal the continued importance of the kuznetsian pattern of declining inequality with economic development a positive effect of urbanization on inequality a declining positive impact of sector dualism an increasing positive effect of educational heterogeneity and a persistent effect of racial dualism several variables associated with the recent upswing in inequality have significant effects female labor force participation negative female headed households positive percent of the population over age 65 changes from positive to negative over the period manufacturing employment negative and unemployment ambiguous they also discuss methods of estimating the gini coefficient for income inequality at the county level and measures of sector farm nonfarm dualism racial black white dualism and educational heterogeneity

inequality in children s contexts income segregation of households with and without children past research shows that income segregation between neighborhoods increased over the past several decades in this article i reexamine income segregation from 1990 to 2010 in the 100 largest metropolitan areas and i find that income segregation increased only among families with children among childless households two thirds of the population income segregation changed little and is half as large as among households with children i examine two factors that may account for these differences by household composition first i find that increasing income inequality identified by past research as a driver of income segregation was a much more powerful predictor of income segregation among families with children among whom income inequality has risen more second i find that local school options delineated by school district boundaries contribute to higher segregation among households with children compared to households without rising income inequality provided high income households more resources

firm heterogeneity in capital labour ratios and wage inequality author s leonardi marco abstract this paper documents the increasing dispersion of capital labor ratios across firms in the us and provides some empirical evidence of a positive correlation at the two digit industry level between the dispersion of capital labor ratios across firms and residual wage inequality to explain this empirical fact the paper adopts a search model where firms differ in their optimal capital investment the exogenous decline in the relative price of equipment capital makes the distributions of capital labor ratios more dispersed in a frictional labor market this force generates wage dispersion among identical workers ols estimates of the relationship between capital dispersion and the relative price of equipment capital support the main hypothesis of the model

buchanan economics and politics author affiliation paul h rubin samuel candler dobbs professor of economics emory university department of economics 312e rich building 1602 fishburne drive atlanta ga 30322 2240 usa e mail prubin emory edu1 introductionmy work has been greatly influenced by jim buchanan much of my early work was in public choice see e g kau and rubin 1979 2002 of course this field would not exist without the calculus of consent buchanan and tullock 1962 more recently my research has gone in different directions but it still bears jim s influence i take as my text today a statement from jim buchanan s great presidential address to the southern economic association in 1963 economics is the study of the whole system of exchange relationships politics is the study of the whole system of coercive or potentially coercive relationships buchanan 1964 p 220 i agree with this statement but in this tribute i want to extend this analysis a little bit i want to point out some additional differences between thinking about economics and thinking about politics some of this analysis is based on my work on the biology of politics rubin 2002 2003 based on that work i have come to the conclusion that in some sense political thinking is more basic to our minds than is economic thinking that is when faced with an interpersonal issue that does not involve family or sex an individual untrained in economics is more likely to treat it as a political issue than as an economic issue indeed one of our tasks as economists is or should be to educate our students and the public about the distinction between economics and politics pinker 2003 not an economist argues that economics is one area where human intuitions are lacking and that it is important to teach economics for this reason 2 characteristics of political versus economic thinkinghere are some of the relevant characteristics of political thinking as contrasted with economic thinking i politics is about competition for resources while economics is about cooperation to generate surpluses ii political thinking tends to be zero sum division of a fixed pie economics allows for positive sum interactions iii politics is an us versus them conflict we are a tribal species with tribal competition economics is universal trade with anyone is beneficial iv perhaps because of its us versus them nature politics is dichotomous win or lose good or bad economics is continuous more or less how much v political processes are controlled by specific active agents the chief the king the general these agents may be heroes or villains but they are purposeful agents economics deals with processes as the market process or the invisible hand vi politics focuses on motives economics focuses on net outputs i now discuss each of these issues in turn competitionthe most important error in economic thinking is associated with one of the most fundamental concepts of economics competition as buchanan argues in his address the fundamental unit of economics is the transaction and transactions are cooperative competition is important but it is a tool to improve cooperation buchanan among others points out that in the purely competitive model there is no competition but we do not fully understand or analyze the implications even in nonperfectly competitive environments the degree of competition is overestimated firms in this environment do compete with each other but they are competing for the right to cooperate with consumers and suppliers including workers a monopolist is a firm with an exclusive ability or right to cooperate with consumers in some market we focus on competition rather than cooperation because of our political bias toward looking at markets through the lens of politics competition is between firms which are actively striving to accomplish some goal

rising earnings inequality in sweden the role of composition and prices the rise in cross sectional earnings inequality in sweden between 1990 and 2002 is decomposed into changes in market prices of observable characteristics changes in the composition of the labor force across demographic groups and industries and changes in unobservables the swedish experience is then compared with that in the united states in both countries the rise in earnings inequality is a consequence of rising upper tail dispersion contrary to the u s experience where the rise is largely driven by changing market prices of observables and increased residual dispersion shifts in the swedish labor force composition have contributed positively to the rise in the p90 p50 gap the rise in the swedish p99 p90 gap however is entirely accounted for by changes in prices and residual dispersion

distributional national accounts methods and estimates for the united states this article combines tax survey and national accounts data to estimate the distribution of national income in the united states since 1913 our distributional national accounts capture 100 of national income allowing us to compute growth rates for each quantile of the income distribution consistent with macroeconomic growth we estimate the distribution of both pretax and posttax income making it possible to provide a comprehensive view of how government redistribution affects inequality average pretax real national income per adult has increased 60 from 1980 to 2014 but we find that it has stagnated for the bottom 50 of the distribution at about 16 000 a year the pretax income of the middle class adults between the median and the 90th percentile has grown 40 since 1980 faster than what tax and survey data suggest due in particular to the rise of tax exempt fringe benefits income has boomed at the top the upsurge of top incomes was first a labor income phenomenon but has mostly been a capital income phenomenon since 2000 the government has offset only a small fraction of the increase in inequality the reduction of the gender gap in earnings has mitigated the increase in inequality among adults but the share of women falls steeply as one moves up the labor income distribution and is only 11 in the top 0 1 in 2014

contests with draws axiomatization and equilibrium we introduce and axiomatize a class of single winner contest success functions that embody the possibility of a draw we then analyze the game of contest that our success functions induce having different prizes delivered in the occurrence of a win and a draw we identify conditions for the existence and uniqueness of a symmetric interior nash equilibrium and show that equilibrium efforts and equilibrium rent dissipation can be larger than in a tullock contest with no possibility of a draw due to increased competition even if the draw prize is null these results suggest that a contest designer may profit from introducing the possibility of a draw finally we show that this approach naturally extends to multiprize contests with multiple draws across different subsets of the set of players jel c72 d72 d74

the structure of inequality and the politics of redistribution against the current consensus among comparative political economists we argue that inequality matters for redistributive politics in advanced capitalist societies but it is the structure of inequality not the level of inequality that matters our theory posits that middle income voters will be inclined to ally with low income voters and support redistributive policies when the distance between the middle and the poor is small relative to the distance between the middle and the rich we test this proposition with data from 15 to 18 advanced democracies and find that both redistribution and nonelderly social spending increase as the dispersion of earnings in the upper half of the distribution increases relative to the dispersion of earnings in the lower half of the distribution in addition we present survey evidence on preferences for redistribution among middle income voters that is consistent with our theory and regression results indicating that the left parties are more likely to participate in government when the structure of inequality is characterized by skew

does tax policy affect executive compensation evidence from postwar tax reforms abstract the trends in executive pay and labor income tax rates since the 1940s suggest a high elasticity of taxable income with respect to tax policy by contrast the level and structure of executive compensation have been largely unresponsive to tax incentives since the 1980s however the relative tax advantage of different forms of pay was small during this period using a sample of top executives in large firms from 1946 to 2005 we also find a small short run response of salaries qualified stock options and bonuses paid after retirement to changes in tax rates on labor income even though tax rates were significantly higher and more heterogeneous across individuals in the first several decades following wwii we explore several potential explanations for the conflicting impressions given by the long run and short run correlations between taxes and pay including changes in social norms and concerns about pay equality

a contest success function for networks abstract this paper models conflict as a contest within a network of friendships and enmities we assume that each player is either in a friendly or in an antagonistic relation with every other player and players compete for winning by exerting costly efforts we axiomatically characterize a success function which determines the win probability of each player given the efforts and the network of relations in an extension we allow for varying intensities of friendships and enmities this framework allows for the study of strategic incentives and friendship formation under conflict as well as the application of stability concepts of network theory to contests

reducing income inequality in educational attainment experimental evidence on the impact of financial aid on college completion income inequality in educational attainment is a long standing concern and disparities in college completion have grown over time need based financial aid is commonly used to promote equality in college outcomes but its effectiveness has not been established and some are calling it into question a randomized experiment is used to estimate the impact of a private need based grant program on college persistence and degree completion among students from low income families attending 13 public universities across wisconsin results indicate that offering students additional grant aid increases the odds of bachelor s degree attainment over four years helping to diminish income inequality in higher education

oil shocks and aggregate macroeconomic behavior the role of monetary policy a recent paper by bernanke gertler and watson 1997 suggests that monetary policy could be used to eliminate any recessionary consequences of an oil price shock this paper challenges this conclusion on two grounds first we question whether the federal reserve actually has the power to implement such a policy for example we consider it unlikely that additional money creation would have succeeded in reducing the fed funds rate by 900 basis points relative to the values seen in 1974 second we point out that the size of the effect that bernanke gertler and watson attribute to oil shocks is substantially smaller than that reported by other researchers primarily due to their choice of a shorter lag length than that used by other researchers we offer evidence in favor of the longer lag length employed by previous research and show that under this specification even the aggressive federal reserve policies proposed would not have succeeded in averting a downturn