improving prediction market forecasts by detecting and correcting possible over reaction to price movements abstract we examine the impact of price trends on the accuracy of forecasts from prediction markets in particular we study an electronic betting exchange market and construct independent variables from market price odds time series from 6058 individual markets a dataset consisting of over 8 4 million price points using a conditional logit model we find that a systematic relationship exists between trends in odds and the accuracy of odds implied event probabilities the relationship is consistent with participants over reacting to price movements in particular in different time segments of the market increasing and decreasing odds lead respectively to under and over estimation of odds implied probabilities we develop a methodology to detect and correct the erroneous forecasts associated with these trends in odds in order to considerably improve the quality of forecasts generated in prediction markets

strategy research governance and competence perspectives business strategy is a complex subject and is usefully examined from several perspectives this paper applies the lenses of governance and competence to the study of strategy both the governance and the competence perspectives have had the benefit of distinguished antecedents they have also had to deal with tautological reputations i begin with the governance perspective with emphasis on the six key moves through which it has been operationalized i then examine the competence perspective in these same six respects governance challenges the competence perspective to apply itself more assiduously to operationalization including the need to choose and give definition to one or more units of analysis of which the routine is a promising candidate the research challenges posed by competence to which governance can and should respond include dynamic transaction costs learning and the need to push beyond generic governance to address strategy issues faced by particular firms with their distinctive strengths and disabilities a lively research future for these two perspectives individually and in combination is projected copyright 1999 john wiley sons ltd business strategy is an expansive enterprise not only do all of the functional areas in the business school relate but strategy is by nature interdisciplinary all of the social sciences especially economics and organization theory plus contract law are implicated indeed in the high technology arena where some of the most difficult strategy issues reside engineering and the law on intellectual property rights also have a bearing of the various approaches to the study of strategy this paper focuses on the governance and competence perspectives both perspectives combine economic reasoning with organization theory as between these two the governance

everyone s a winner the market impact of technologically advantaged agents using betting data we show that a market with agents having heterogeneous utility can include a net transfer of wealth to technologically advantaged agents taas from non taas with the transaction proving beneficial to both in terms of their realized utility

collusion fluctuating demand and price rigidity we study an infinitely repeated bertrand game in which an i i d demand shock occurs in each period each firm receives a private signal about the demand shock at the beginning of each period at the end of each period all information but the private signals becomes public we consider the optimal symmetric perfect public equilibrium sppe mainly for patient firms we show that price rigidity arises in the optimal sppe if the accuracy of the private signals is low we also study the implications of more firms and firms impatience on collusive pricing empirical evidence shows that prices in oligopolistic markets tend to be more rigid than prices in competitive markets dixon 1983 carlton 1986 this suggests that collusion may result in firms inflexible pricing behavior it is not obvious however that collusion causes price rigidity why do colluding firms not adjust prices according to changing environments by which they can potentially earn higher profits what limits colluding firms ability to coordinate thereby leading to price rigidity in this article we study how information asymmetry among firms limits colluding firms ability to respond to demand shocks and characterize the conditions under which prices are rigid specifically we consider private information about demand in an infinitely repeated bertrand game with two identical firms in which an i i d binary demand shock occurs in each period each firm receives a conditionally independent private signal about the underlying demand state at the beginning of each period and then charges a price the accuracy of private signals is measured by the probability of receiving a high respectively low signal conditional on a high respectively low underlying demand state therefore the lower the accuracy the higher the degree of informational asymmetry at the end of each period firms observe the underlying demand and the prices but they never observe their rivals signals we adopt symmetric perfect public equilibria sppe as our solution concept which requires that at each period firms pricing schemes

communication in cournot oligopoly abstract this paper studies communication in a static cournot duopoly model under the assumption that the firms have unverifiable private information about their costs we investigate the conditions under which the firms cannot transmit any information through cheap talk and show that when these conditions are violated it may be possible to construct informative cheap talk equilibria if the firms can communicate through a third party communication can be informative even when informative cheap talk is impossible we exhibit a simple mediated mechanism that ensures informative communication and interim pareto dominates the uninformative equilibrium for the firms

collusive equilibrium in cournot oligopolies with unknown costs the article studies collusive equilibria in an infinitely repeated cournot oligopoly with unknown costs i look at collusive pooled perfect bayesian equilibria and separating equilibria either with signaling or with communication in the separating equilibria with signaling the firms play the strictly separating bayesian nash equilibrium in period 1 and produce the optimal incentive compatible collusive quantity vector from period 2 onwards in the separating equilibrium with communication the optimal incentive compatible quantity vector is produced from period 1 onwards among these the optimal separating equilibrium with communication gives the highest expected discounted joint profits

collusion and price rigidity we consider an in nitely repeated bertrand game in which prices are publicly observed and each rm receives a privately observed i i d cost shock in each period we focus on symmetric perfect public equilibria sppe wherein any punishments are borne equally by all rms we identify a tradeoff that is associated with collusive pricing schemes in which the price to be charged by each rm is strictly increasing in its cost level such fully sorting schemes offer efficiency bene ts as they ensure that the lowest cost rm makes the current sale but they also imply an informational cost distorted pricing and or equilibrium path price wars since a higher cost rm must be deterred from mimicking a lower cost rm by charging a lower price a rigid pricing scheme where a rm s collusive price is independent of its current cost position sacri ces efficiency bene ts but also diminishes the informational cost for a wide range of settings the optimal symmetric collusive scheme requires i the absence of equilibrium path price wars and ii a rigid price if rms are sufficiently impatient however the rigid pricing scheme cannot be enforced and the collusive price of lower cost rms may be distorted downward in order to diminish the incentive to cheat when the model is modi ed to include i i d public demand shocks the downward pricing distortion that accompanies a rm s lower cost realization may occur only when current demand is high

the ordinal efficiency of betting markets an exploded logit approach this article offers a new perspective on efficiency in betting markets by examining the degree to which finishing order in horse races corresponds to probabilities inherent in odds across different categories of horse race the application of an exploded logit procedure reveals a significantly greater degree of ordinal efficiency in higher relative to lower class races explanations for the phenomenon include differences in prize related incentives cross market distinctions in information markets and differential opportunity incentive for market manipulation

the folk theorem with imperfect public information the authors study repeated games in which players observe a public outcome that imperfectly signals the actions played they provide conditions guaranteeing that any feasible individually rational payoff vector of the stage game can arise as a perfect equilibrium of the repeated game with sufficiently little discounting the central condition requires that there exist action profiles with the property that for any two players no two deviations one by either player give rise to the same probability distribution over public outcomes the results apply to principal agent partnership oligopoly and mechanism design models and to one shot games with transferable utilities copyright 1994 by the econometric society

technological exploration through licensing new insights from the licensee s point of view the market for technology plays a crucial role in firms technology strategy as a way to undertake search in the available technological space drawing on innovation search theory and the literatures on licensing and absorptive capacity ac we address the issue of the factors that affect how technologically distant from the existing technological portfolio in licensing firms are able to move when they in license externally developed technologies we posit that a long technological distance reflects the outcome of more exploratory search while a short distance reflects the outcome of exploitative search we conjecture two distinct dimensions of ac in terms of the firms stock of knowledge assimilation capacity and the degree to which firms have searched broadly in the past monitoring ability t o affect the distance of exploration from the existing technological portfolio furthermore we compare firms that explore through licensing and firms which do not explore through licensing but do so through search reflected in own patenting activities we propose that the effects of assimilation capacity and monitoring ability should be more pronounced for licensees combining data on 176 license agreements and related patent information and while using a control sample of non licensing firms we find with exceptions support for these ideas

communication in repeated games with imperfect private monitoring this paper examines repeated games in which each player observes a private and imperfect signal on the actions played and in which players are allowed to communicate using public messages providing incentives for players to reveal their observations generates revelation constraints that combined with signal imperfections may be a source of inefficiencies however by delaying the revelation of their observations players may economize on the cost of deterring deviations and thereby avoid these inefficiencies because a player would not want to trigger a sanction that would penalize him too revelation constraints also tend to make sanctions difficult to enforce however with at least three players detecting deviations may not require that all the players reveal their observations in that case we obtain a nash threat version of the folk theorem with two players we do not obtain a similar result nevertheless we show that an efficient outcome can almost always be approximated

searching for positive returns at the track a multinomial logic model for handicapping horse races this paper investigates fundamental investment strategies to detect and exploit the public s systematic errors in horse race wager markets a handicapping model is developed and applied to win betting in the pari mutuel system a multinomial logit model of the horse racing process is posited and estimated on a data base of 200 races a recently developed procedure for exploiting the information content of rank ordered choice sets is employed to obtain more efficient parameter estimates the variables in this discrete choice probability model include horse and jockey characteristics plus several race specific features hold out sampling procedures are employed to evaluate wagering strategies a wagering strategy that involves unobtrusive bets with a side constraint eliminating long shot betting appears to offer the promise of positive expected returns even in the presence of the typically large track take encountered at thoroughbred racing events

efficiency of the market for racetrack betting many racetrack bettors have systems since the track is a market similar in many ways to the stock market one would expect that the basic strategies would be either fundamental or technical in nature fundamental strategies utilize past data available from racing forms special sources etc to handicap races the investor then wagers on one or more horses whose probability of winning exceeds that determined by the odds by an amount sufficient to overcome the track take technical systems require less information and only utilize current betting data they attempt to find inefficiencies in the market and bet on such overlays when they have positive expected value previous studies and our data confirm that for win bets these inefficiencies which exist for underbet favorites and overbet longshots are not sufficiently great to result in positive profits this paper describes a technical system for place and show betting for which it appears to be possible to make substantial positive profits and thus to demonstrate market inefficiency in a weak form sense estimated theoretical probabilities of all possible finishes are compared with the actual amounts bet to determine profitable betting situations since the amount bet influences the odds and theory suggests that to maximize long run growth a logarithmic utility function is appropriate the resulting model is a nonlinear program side calculations generally reduce the number of possible bets in any one race to three or less hence the actual optimization is quite simple the system was tested on data from santa anita and exhibition park using exact and approximate solutions that make the system operational at the track given the limited time available for placing bets and found to produce substantial positive profits a model is developed to demonstrate that the profits are not due to chance but rather to proper identification of market inefficiencies

network location and learning the influence of network resources and firm capabilities on alliance formation this paper presents a dynamic firm level study of the role of network resources in determining alliance formation such resources inhere not so much within the firm but reside in the interfirm networks in which firms are placed data from extensive fieldwork show that by influencing the extent to which firms have access to information about potential partners such resources are an important catalyst for new alliances especially because alliances entail considerable hazards this study also assesses the importance of firms capabilities with alliance formation and material resources as determinants of their alliance decisions i test this dynamic framework and its hypotheses about the role of time varying network resources and firm capabilities with comprehensive longitudinal multi industry data on the formation of strategic alliances by a panel of firms between 1970 and 1989 the results confirm field observations that accumulated network resources arising from firm participation in the network of accumulated prior alliances are influential in firms decisions to enter into new alliances this study highlights the importance of network resources that firms derive from their embeddedness in networks for explaining their strategic behavior copyright 1999 john wiley sons ltd

repeated bargaining with persistent private information the paper analyses repeated contract negotiations involving the same buyer and seller where the contracts are linked because the buyer has persistent but not fully permanent private information the size of the surplus being divided is specified as a two state markov chain with transitions that are synchronized with contract negotiation dates equilibrium involves information cycles triggered by the success or failure of aggressive demands made by the seller because there is persistence in the markov chain generating the surplus a successful demand induces the seller to make another aggressive demand in the next negotiation since the buyer s acceptance reveals that the current surplus is large rejection of an aggressive demand on the other hand leads the seller to be pessimistic about the size of the surplus in the next contract so the seller makes a soft offer that is sure to be accepted then after several such offers have been accepted the seller is optimistic enough to again make an aggressive demand creating an information cycle an interesting feature of this cycle is that the soft price is not constant but declines as the cycle continues so as to offset the buyer s option value of re starting the cycle when the current state is bad an explicit mapping is given for the relationship between the basic parameters and the equilibrium prices and quantities in particular there is a closed form solution for the threshold belief that makes the seller indifferent between hard and soft offers

dynamic capabilities and their indirect impact on firm performance this article seeks to empirically explore the relationship between dynamic capabilities and firm performance in particular it addresses the question of whether dynamic capabilities impact directly or indirectly on performance in doing so the article articulates and measures a construct of dynamic capabilities and using structural equation modeling it examines whether their impact on performance is mediated through operational marketing and technological capabilities the proposed model is tested in different levels of environmental dynamism using data on 271 greek firms belonging to the manufacturing sector empirical findings suggest that dynamic capabilities impinge on operational capabilities which in turn have a significant effect on performance direct effects on performance are found to be insignificant furthermore similar effects seem to hold for both higher and lower levels of environmental dynamism theoretical and practical implications are discussed

dynamic games with hidden actions and hidden states abstract we consider a class of dynamic games in which each player s actions are unobservable to the other players and each player s actions can influence a state variable that is unobservable to the other players we develop an algorithm that solves for the subset of sequential equilibria in which equilibrium strategies depend on private information only through the privately observed state journal of economic literature classification numbers c63 c73

optimal cartel equilibria with imperfect monitoring abstract there exist optimal symmetric equilibria in the green porter model 4 8 having an elementary intertemporal structure such an equilibrium is described entirely by two subsets of price space and two quantities the only production levels used by firms in any contingency the central technique employed in the analysis is the reduction of the repeated game to a family of static games

time is money costing the impact of duration misperception in market prices abstract we explore whether and to what extent traders in a real world financial market where participants judgements are reportedly well calibrated are subject to duration misperception to achieve this we examine duration misperception in the horserace betting market we develop a two stage algorithm to predict horses winning probabilities that account for a duration related factor that is known to affect horses winning prospects the algorithm adapts survival analysis and combines it with the conditional logit model using a dataset of 4736 horseraces and the lifetime career statistics of the 53 295 horses running in these races we demonstrate that prices fail to discount fully information related to duration since a horse s last win we show that this failure is extremely costly since a betting strategy based on the predictions arising from the model shows substantial profits 932 5 percent and 16 27 percent with and without reinvestment of winnings respectively we discuss the important implications of duration neglect in the wider economy

dynamic capabilities what are they this paper focuses on dynamic capabilities and more generally the resource based view of the firm we argue that dynamic capabilities are a set of specific and identifiable processes such as product development strategic decision making and alliancing they are neither vague nor tautological although dynamic capabilities are idiosyncratic in their details and path dependent in their emergence they have significant commonalities across firms popularly termed best practice this suggests that they are more homogeneous fungible equifinal and substitutable than is usually assumed in moderately dynamic markets dynamic capabilities resemble the traditional conception of routines they are detailed analytic stable processes with predictable outcomes in contrast in high velocity markets they are simple highly experiential and fragile processes with unpredictable outcomes finally well known learning mechanisms guide the evolution of dynamic capabilities in moderately dynamic markets the evolutionary emphasis is on variation in high velocity markets it is on selection at the level of rbv we conclude that traditional rbv misidentifies the locus of long term competitive advantage in dynamic markets overemphasizes the strategic logic of leverage and reaches a boundary condition in high velocity markets copyright 2000 john wiley sons ltd

revealing weak form inefficiency in a market for state contingent claims the importance of market ecology modelling procedures and investment strategies this paper examines the degree to which current prices discount historical prices in a market for state contingent claims conditional logit analysis is employed to predict winning probabilities based on market prices in a betting market these are used together with various wagering strategies to yield substantial abnormal returns consequently in contrast to the existing literature the results suggest that the market is not weak form efficient the disparity with previous efficiency studies highlights the importance of considering market ecology and of adopting an appropriate modelling procedure and investment strategy to fully exploit information contained in market prices

collusion with persistent cost shocks we consider a dynamic bertrand game in which prices are publicly observed and each firm receives a privately observed cost shock in each period although cost shocks are independent across firms within a firm costs follow a first order markov process we analyze the set of collusive equilibria available to firms emphasizing the best collusive scheme for the firms at the start of the game in general there is a trade off between productive efficiency whereby the low cost firm serves the market in a given period and high prices we show that when costs are perfectly correlated over time within a firm if the distribution of costs is log concave and firms are sufficiently patient then the optimal collusive scheme entails price rigidity firms set the same price and share the market equally regardless of their respective costs when serial correlation of costs is imperfect partial productive efficiency is optimal for the case of two cost types first best collusion is possible if the firms are patient relative to the persistence of cost shocks but not otherwise we present numerical examples of first best collusive schemes

success in high technology markets is marketing capability critical we propose a conceptual framework with the resource based view rbv of the firm as its theoretical underpinning to explain interfirm differences in firms profitability in high technology markets in terms of differences in their functional capabilities specifically we suggest that marketing r d and operations capabilities along with interactions among these capabilities are important determinants of relative financial performance within the industry this paper contributes to the rbv literature by proposing the input output perspective to conceptualize the notion of capabilities specifically this approach entails modeling a firm s functional activities viz marketing r d and operations as transformation functions that relate the productive factors resources to its functional objectives if the firm were to deploy these resources most efficiently any underattainment of the functional objective then is attributable to functional inefficiency or equivalently to a lower functional capability of the firm the input output conceptualization of a firm s capabilities is then estimated using the stochastic frontier estimation sfe methodology sfe provides the appropriate econometric technique to empirically estimate the efficient frontier and hence the level of efficiency achieved by the various firms our study contributes to a number of literatures both methodologically and substantively first it contributes both conceptually and methodologically to the rbv literature conceptually our study suggests that firm capabilities can be viewed in an input output framework methodologically the study suggests the use of stochastic frontier estimation to operationalize and estimate firm capabilities this methodology is to the best of our knowledge the first to allow the researcher manager to infer capabilities from archival data substantively our study contributes to the literature on market orientation by suggesting that a stronger market orientation of a firm should be reflected in a higher marketing capability it also adds to the literature on design for manufacturability by explicating the complementarity among the various functional capabilities and offering empirical evidence on their relative importance in influencing a firm s performance finally our study builds on prior literature that has highlighted the importance of marketing r d coordination as important determinants of new product development and success we highlight below some of our main findings 1 a strong base of innovative technologies enhances a firm s sales by favorably influencing consumers expectations about the externality benefits associated with its product this suggests that a past track record of consistent innovation is a credible signal to current and potential customers of the firm s continued excellence in a technologically evolving market given the importance of influencing customers managers need to tailor their marketing activities around the need to inform customers of the technological excellence of their firm thus customers need to be informed of the innovative technologies that the firm possesses and of the future r d initiatives undertaken by it similarly any potential applications of innovative technology developed by the firm and of technologies under development should be emphasized 2 marketing capability has its greatest impact on the quality adjusted innovative output for firms that have a strong technological base in other words firms with a strong r d base are the ones with the most to gain from a strong marketing capability 3 marketing capability strongly influences the width of applicability of innovations i e a firm s marketing capability enhances its ability to generate innovative technologies that have applications across a range of industries this result carries a strong message for managers a strong market orientation is one of the most fertile sources of ideas for innovation thus marketing needs to be involved from the beginning of the innovation process namely right at the stage when technological ideas are being generated 5 the most important determinant of a firm s performance is the interaction of marketing and r d capabilities this supports the assertion that firms in high technology markets need to excel at two things the ability to come up with innovations constantly and the ability to commercialize these innovations into the kinds of products that capture consumer needs and preferences this finding offers further evidence on the importance of coordination between r d and marketing as suggested in the extant marketing literature finally using archival data our methodology can be used to benchmark a firm s capabilities with other firms in the industry along various functional dimensions this would be an important step in making more informed resource allocation decisions thus the firm can spend more money on those capabilities where it most lags the competition or on those capabilities that are shown to have the maximum impact on firm performance

racetrack betting and informed behavior abstract horse racing data permit interesting tests of attitudes toward risk the present paper studies a new sample of racetrack results from atlantic city new jersey the questions examined are 1 are the market odds the best data for predicting the order of finish 2 do horses go off at odds that reflect their true probability of winning 3 is there any evidence that late bettors have better information than early bettors it is found that market odds predict the order of finish well but that favorites are good bets and long shots are poor ones the data suggest that there does exist an informed class of bettors and that bettors are on the whole neither risk neutral nor risk averse

an examination of the determinants of biased behaviour in a market for state contingent claims we develop a model to explain the differential incidence of the favourite longshot bias in parallel sectors of the pari mutuel horserace betting market hypotheses are derived from the model and these are tested using uk data to explore the origins of the bias significant variations in the bias are discovered between market sectors on and off racetrack these results shed light on competing demand side explanations for the favourite longshot bias and suggest that it is affected by a combination of behavioural and operational features of the markets and the types of bettors informed and leisure which they attract

examining models of collusion the market for lysine abstract we compare the experience with collusion in the market for lysine with the predictions of theory the lysine market provides an ideal setting following the confessions of cartel participants in antitrust investigations data availability allows demand and cost functions to be estimated and observed mark ups compared with predictions we find that several integral aspects of collusion in the lysine market are not adequately addressed in the literature the dynamics associated with entry and investment persistent asymmetries between firms the cartel s bargaining problem and the existence of cheating in equilibrium these issues are likely to have much wider applicability beyond the lysine market

dynamic capabilities and new product development in high technology ventures an empirical analysis of new biotechnology firms abstract in industries populated by entrepreneurial high technology firms the rapid development of new products is viewed as a key determinant of success developing a portfolio of new products is necessary to gain early cash flows external visibility and legitimacy early market share and increase the likelihood of survival schoonhoven eisenhardt and lymman 1990 in addition recent research has shown that new product development improves a firm s ability to raise money through an initial public offering deeds decarolis and coombs 1997 this paper develops a model of new product development which is tested on a sample of 94 pharmaceutical biotechnology companies we hypothesize that new product development capabilities are a function of a firm s scientific technological and managerial skills to test this relationship we develop several firm specific measures in an attempt to triangulate in on the core construct of firm specific new product development capabilities some important implications for entrepreneurs managers of high technology firms flow from our results first entrepreneur managers need to view the choice of geographic location as an important strategic decision which will impact their firm s access to the skilled technical personnel and the streams of knowledge our results indicate that a choice location has a significant concentration of similar firms but the level has not yet reached a point where competition for resources in the local environment offsets any advantages of the location in the case of biotechnology this would seem to indicate that the prime locations would be expanding areas such as san diego seattle and philadelphia rather then the established locations of silicon valley and boston second as scientific knowledge plays an ever more important role in a firm s success the quality of the firm s scientific team is a critical ingredient in a firm s new product development capability but how do you evaluate the quality of scientific personnel our results indicate that there is a strong positive relationship between the impact as measured by citations of a team s prior research in the academic community and the productivity of that team in a commercial research laboratory therefore the judgement of a scientific field captured by citations or perhaps expert judgement should prove to be a useful tool when evaluating personnel for a firm s research team third the results from our measures of ceo experience and the percentage of the top management team with a ph d are interesting as expected the prior experience of ceo in managing a commercial research facility enhances a firm s new product development capabilities however results for our top management team variable appears to indicate that the over reliance on technical personnel in the management of the organization detracts from the product development process taken together these results seem to imply that it is important that the leadership of the organization have knowledge of and experience in managing the new product development process but that diverting the firm s scientific personnel s energies away from the laboratory and into the management of the organization maybe counter productive therefore what a high technology venture appears to need is leadership that understands and has experience in the new product development process but which is separate and distinct from the scientific team this type of leadership keeps the scientific team focused on research and development and out of the boardroom

semiparametric distribution free testing of the expectations hypothesis in a parimutuel gambling market the expectations hypothesis maintains that a current forward or futures price should be an unbiased forecast of the expected future price this article tests the expectations hypothesis in the parimutuel gambling market for greyhound racing using parametric and semiparametric estimators parimutuel gambling markets are similar to speculative asset markets in many regards conventional maximum likelihood tests of asset pricing require a priori specification of the statistical distribution governing agents expectations distributional misspecifications may bias conventional tests the semiparametric estimators applied in this article overcome these problems and in addition maintain consistency under heteroscedasticity the results reject the expectations hypothesis