a new year a new you within individual variation in food purchases abstract we document that within individual variation in food choices is substantial and has potentially important consequences for nutrition and hence well being we develop an approach that allows us to study the determinants of this within individual variation within an economic framework and allow for across individual preference heterogeneity we show that around one fifth of within individual fluctuations in diet quality is explained by standard economic variables prices and budgets along with advertising and weather the residual fluctuations are important and are larger for lower income and younger people and individuals who state they are impulsive we propose a two selves model of food purchase behavior to structurally interpret these empirical patterns we use nonparametric revealed preference techniques to show that this model rationalizes our food purchase data

cost of living inequality during the great recession using detailed barcode level data we construct income group specific price indices for the period of 2004 to 2010 we find substantial differences across income groups arising mainly during the great recession the annual cost of living inflation of the highest quartile has been on average 0 7 percentage points lower than that of the lowest quartile of the income distribution the difference can be explained by the way consumers adjusted their shopping behavior to mitigate the crisis we find that product quality substitution a margin mostly available to richer households is the main mechanism explaining the differences in cost of living inflation our evidence suggests that not accounting for these differences during economic downturns could lead to significant biases in the calculation of inequality and poverty measures jel classifications d12 e31 e32 we thank fernando alvarez erik hurst anil kashyap robert lucas and joseph vavra for their advice and support the paper benefited from comments and suggestions by many others including bong geun choi jorge l garcia jessie handbury sara moreira roberto robatto adriaan ten kate yike wang chen yeh and seminar participants at the university of chicago iea meeting washington university graduate student conference and the midwest macro meeting contacts david argente dargente uchicago edu munseob lee munseob uchicago edu

collateral in credit rationing in markets with imperfect information note in their 1981 article joseph stiglitz and andrew weiss analyze adverse selection and incentive effects in the loan market the models considered are based on two crucial assumptions borrowers are subject to limited liability and lenders cannot distinguish borrowers projects of different risk stiglitz and weiss show that a bank that raises its interest rate may suffer adverse selection because only risky borrowers will be willing to borrow at the higher rate thus lenders may choose not to raise the interest rate to eliminate excess demand resulting in the possibility of a credit rationing equilibrium stiglitz and weiss also consider briefly the role of collateral in such credit rationing models they conclude that lenders may choose not to use collateral requirements as a rationing device an increase in collateral requirements like an increase in the interest rate potentially leads to a decrease in the lender s expected return on loans because of resulting adverse incentive and selection effects the purpose of this note is to further investigate the role of collateral in these models stiglitz and weiss discussion in section iii establishes that adverse selection effects can result from increases in collateral when borrowers are risk averse i will show by returning to a model they discussed earlier in section i that the adverse selection effects can also occur when borrowers are risk neutral stiglitz and weiss outline a model to consider the use of collateral as a rationing device section iii in that model all potential borrowers face the same array of risky projects each potential borrower chooses at most one of those projects to undertake the individuals are by assumption risk averse with decreasing absolute risk aversion and possess different amounts of initial wealth thus choice of project if any to undertake and the method of finance selffinance from initial wealth or loan finance will differ from one individual to the next stiglitz and weiss show that among those who undertake risky projects and who choose borrowing as the method of finance wealthier individuals undertake riskier projects an increase in collateral has two effects on the market for loans those individuals who remain in the market will choose to undertake less risky projects and those individuals who drop out of the market are less wealthy low risk borrowers if the second effect is sufficiently strong then increased collateral requirements will mean decreased expected returns for the lender thus a credit rationing equilibrium may occur since lenders may not choose to use collateral requirements or the interest rate to eliminate excess demand the adverse selection effect just described does not occur in this model if the individuals are risk neutral consequently the potential for a credit rationing equilibrium is limited to cases where borrowers are risk averse to see that increases in collateral requirements can also result in adverse selection if borrowers are risk neutral consider the model stiglitz and weiss used to analyze the adverse selection effects of increases in the interest rate section i pp 395 99 it differs from the section iii model discussed above in three ways first borrowers are risk neutral second all projects ar loan financed the analogy to the section iii model is that no individuals have sufficient wealth to self finance projects third in the section

interest controls and credit allocation in developing countries planning authorities in less developed countries ldcs often regard financial market intervention as an efficient way to induce gr wth and structural change elaborate regimes of interest ceilings and subsidies have been used to promote industrialization exporting geographic decentralization and other national priorities some of these programs have doubtless achieved their intended objectives however with inflation frequently exceeding controlled interest rates they have also tended to generate an excess demand for loans legally prohibited from price discrimination creditors have been obliged to allocate their portfolios according to various rationing criteria and loan applicants whom creditors find relatively unappealing have been forced to rely heavily on self finance or the unregulated curb markets mckinnon 1973 and shaw 1973 have argued that such rationing regimes lead to serious factor misallocations inappropriate technology choices and unnecessarily low growth rates in the past decade their perspective has been formalized with macro models of financially repressed economies and numerous supportive empirical studies have been reported fry 1982 surveys the literature surprisingly however several fundamental micro issues have received little attention what is the nature of the bias in credit allocation that nonprice rationing induces and how does

do pharmacists buy bayer informed shoppers and the brand premium we estimate the effect of information and expertise on consumers willingness to pay for national brands in physically homogeneous product categories in a detailed case study of headache remedies we find that more informed or expert consumers are less likely to pay extra to buy national brands with pharmacists choosing them over store brands only 9 percent of the time compared to 26 percent of the time for the average consumer in a similar case study of pantry staples such as salt and sugar we show that chefs devote 12 percentage points less of their purchases to national brands than demographically similar nonchefs we extend our analysis to cover 50 retail health categories and 241 food and drink categories the results suggest that misinformation and related consumer mistakes explain a sizable share of the brand premium for health products and a much smaller share for most food and drink products we tie our estimates together using a stylized model of demand and pricing

property rights and consumption volatility evidence from a land reform in vietnam summary during vietnam s transition from a socialist to a market economy household s property rights over agricultural land were considerably strengthened through a land certification program this resulted in active formal credit and land markets either of which potentially affects consumption levels and volatility this article evaluates the program impact with respect to consumption outcomes in particular it identifies the channel of impact through which improved property rights affect consumption volatility we find that land certification increases consumption levels for rural households but also consumption volatility for a subgroup of households identified by an instrument we show that the certification program affects consumption outcomes of this subgroup through presumably more risky credit based agricultural investment at the intensive margin

risk aversion and credit constraints in farmers decision making a reinterpretation in 1976 the agricultural development council sponsored a conference on risk uncertainty and agricultural development which has been summarised in a volume edited by james roumasset jean marc boussard and inderjit singh 1979 the volume provides an excellent review of the state of the art at that time however as discussed in the summary chapters of that volume there were few theoretical empirical or policy issues on which clear conclusions could be reached on the basis of knowledge then available in the intervening years progress has been made on a number of issues as a result of both empirical investigations and theoretical advances this paper concentrates on advances which have relevance to the controversy about the relative roles of risk aversion and credit constraints in limiting farmers investment levels especially for purchased inputs such as seeds or fertilizers in particular we review recent experimental studies on the extent of risk aversion among farmer populations in developing

expectation formation in a new environment evidence from the german reunification abstract exploiting the german reunification we study how households adapt to a new environment in their macroeconomic forecasting east germans expect higher inflation than west germans decades after reunification these differences are likely driven by the persistent effect of the inflation shock after reunification which contrasted strongly with experiences of zero inflation in the gdr east germans higher inflation expectations are reflected in higher consumer debt and lower bond holdings our findings suggest that large changes in the environment can permanently impede people s ability to form expectations with an important role for the interaction of experiences before and after the event

land ownership security and farm investment comment economists have long argued that increasing security of individual property rights in land leads to increased investment feder and onchan ft are among the first to empirically test this argument in a rigorous way based on data from thailand ft infer that ownership of land title increases capital accumulation and investment their analysis broadens our understanding of the linkages between capital markets and land investment and offers hypotheses for further research this comment raises two issues concerning the ft article first the empirical results are open to several interpretations because of fundamental questions about causality and the definition of ownership security a reinterpretation of the data suggests that the aggregate impact of title on investment may have been small second inference from the thailand study must be made with caution consideration of a more general model suggests other conditions which influence the impact of title on investment and productivity our comments do not diminish the importance of the ft study but raise conceptual issues that may prove useful for future land titling research

real time price indices inflation spike and falling product variety during the great lockdown we characterize inflation dynamics during the great lockdown using scanner data covering millions of transactions for fast moving consumer goods in the united kingdom we show that there was a significant and widespread spike in inflation first aggregate month to month inflation was 2 4 in the first month of lockdown a rate over 10 times higher than in preceding months over half of this increase stems from reduced frequency of promotions consumers purchasing power was further eroded by a reduction in product variety second 96 of households have experienced inflation in 2020 while in prior years around half of households experienced deflation third there was inflation in most product categories including those that experienced output falls only 13 of product categories experienced deflation compared with over half in previous years while market based measures of inflation expectations point to disinflation or deflation these findings indicate a risk of stagflation should not be ruled out we hope our approach can serve as a template to facilitate rapid diagnosis of inflation risks during economic crises leveraging scanner data and appropriate price indices in real time

from constraint to sufficiency the decoupling of energy and carbon from human needs 1975 2005 abstract we investigate the relationship between human needs energy consumption and carbon emissions for several indicators of human development life expectancy literacy income and the human development index we find that high human development can be achieved at moderate energy and carbon levels increasing energy and carbon past this level does not necessarily contribute to higher living standards by conducting a novel longitudinal analysis from 1975 to 2005 we observe a previously undetected decoupling of the per capita energy and carbon required for human needs if resources were equally distributed current energy and carbon levels would be more than sufficient to satisfy global human needs at high levels of human development by projecting current trends to 2030 we demonstrate that the global energy consumption and carbon emissions required to satisfy human needs will decrease with time despite growth in population

the morphology of price dispersion this paper is a study of the shape and structure of the distribution of prices at which an identical good is sold in a given market and time period we find that the typical price distribution is symmetric and leptokurtic with a standard deviation between 19 and 36 only 10 of the variance of prices is due to variation in the expensiveness of the stores at which a good is sold while the remaining 90 is due in approximately equal parts to differences in the average price of a good across equally expensive stores and to differences in the price of a good across transactions at the same store we show that the distribution of prices that households pay for the same bundle of goods is approximately normal with a standard deviation between 9 and 14 half of this dispersion is due to differences in the expensiveness of the stores where households shop while the other half is mostly due to differences in households choices of which goods to purchase at which stores we find that households with fewer employed members pay lower prices and do so by visiting a larger number of stores rather than by shopping more frequently

understanding the role of energy consumption in human development through the use of saturation phenomena a correlation is presented between the un human development index and per capita energy consumption for 120 nations a strong relationship between index values and energy consumption is observed for the majority of the world additionally a distinct secondary trend emerges from the dataset representing heavy energy exporters such as the organization of the petroleum exporting countries and some former soviet union nations among others the preliminary observation is made that these two trends closely resemble saturation curves exhibited by a variety of natural phenomena for the primary trend three regions are isolated a steep rise in human development relative to energy consumption for energy poor nations a moderate rise for transitioning nations and essentially no rise in human development for energy advantaged nations consuming large amounts of modern energy these correlations suggest that tremendous gains in human development are possible for the world s poorest with small incremental access to energy

indigenous land rights in sub saharan africa appropriation security and investment demand abstract we discuss the links between rights appropriation tenure security and investment demand in sub saharan africa common assertions regarding indigenous tenure are 1 a insecurity of tenure leads to suboptimal investment incentives and 2 b appropriation of land rights in the public domain is rent dissipating we argue that land use and investment decisions among african farmers often have two motives productivity and rights appropriation the usual assertions thus seem contradictory we offer a conceptual model to show that indigenous tenure may provide equal or higher investment incentives than private rights and may promote modes of rights appropriation that are productive rather than wasteful

an analysis of offer functions of banks and credit unions in guatemala economists have sought to identify institutions which might fill the gap in household access to credit arising from rationing by formal lenders credit unions have been identified as institutions which might use informational and monitoring advantages to fill that gap using information on household perceptions of their access to credit this article analyses the impact of certain credit unions on the access to credit of households in guatemala regression results indicate that credit unions serve markets unserved by formal lenders and that information on household perceptions of their access to credit is important in making inferences about lender lending activities

implications of rational inattention abstract a constraint that actions can depend on observations only through a communication channel with finite shannon capacity is shown to be able to play a role very similar to that of a signal extraction problem or an adjustment cost in standard control problems the resulting theory looks enough like familiar dynamic rational expectations theories to suggest that it might be useful and practical while the implications for policy are different enough to be interesting

access to capital and agrarian production organisation there are two problems both universal that entrepreneurs in any economy must contend with firstly an agent generally has access only to a limited amount of working capital secondly workers hired by an agent are subject to moral hazard and this necessitates their supervision this paper models for an agrarian economy the constraints imposed on entrepreneurs activities by these two problems and endogenously determines the various organisational forms of production as well as the allocation of resources that will obtain with a simple model we endeavour to explain a diverse set of empirical observations pertaining to the less developed countries in terms of the general processes that determine the distribution of income among the various agents and the hierarchical relationships that develop among them agricultural production typically involves a period of several months between the time the inputs are purchased and the time the output is marketed access to working capital and hence to the credit market thus plays an important role in a farmer s production decisions the distribution of access to credit in turn tends to be an important determinant of income distribution in poor agrarian economies credit is invariably rationed according to the ability to offer collateral the amount of working capital a farmer can mobilise therefore depends on the amount of land he owns which is often a good proxy for his overall wealth and thus his ability to offer collateral further since hired hands have a propensity to shirk they need to be supervised and therefore the

risk wealth and sectoral choice in rural credit markets we model the role of the informal credit sector in developing countries the informational advantage of informal lenders is portrayed as the ability to monitor borrowers monitoring reduces the incentive problem and allows for contracts with lower collateral this enables informal lenders to serve both individuals who cannot post the collateral required by the formal sector and those who are able but do not want to post collateral the model is consistent with the conventional view of the informal sector as recipient of spillover demand from the formal sector it also shows that the informal sector may provide partial insurance as the lower collateral requirement implies greater consumption smoothing for borrowers

the expected price of keeping up with the joneses abstract inflation expectations elicited in surveys have been found to exhibit large dispersion across individuals although several explanations have been proposed none fully explain this puzzle we explore in this paper a new behavioral factor social comparison using original survey data we find that respondents who feel they are falling behind compared to their peers report significantly and substantially higher inflation expectations we argue that this result is consistent with an experience based belief formation model in which those unable to keep up with the joneses overweight the high prices of aspiration goods they are unable to purchase

credit constraints and agricultural productivity evidence from rural rwanda while potentially negative impacts of credit constraints on economic development have long been discussed conceptually empirical evidence for africa remains limited we use a direct elicitation approach on a national sample of rwandan rural households to empirically assess the extent and nature of credit rationing in the semi formal sector and its impact using an endogenous switching model elimination of all constraints could increase output by some 17 per cent implications for policy and research are spelled out

equilibrium credit rationing of small farm agriculture it is often argued that externally imposed contractual restrictions lead to inequitable credit rationing this paper argues that unrestricted laissez faire markets may also inequitably ration credit a formal model which grants borrowers autonomy in credit application and use demonstrates that adverse incentive and selection effects may cause banks to endogenously impose interest rate restrictions and ration small farms out of the credit market consequently liberalization of financial markets may be insufficient to guarantee small farms access to credit

inflation expectations as a policy tool abstract we assess the prospects for central banks using inflation expectations as a policy tool for stabilization purposes we review recent work on how expectations of agents are formed and how they affect their economic decisions empirical evidence suggests that inflation expectations of households and firms affect their actions but the underlying mechanisms remain unclear especially for firms two additional limitations prevent policy makers from being able to actively manage inflation expectations first available surveys of firms expectations are systematically deficient which can only be addressed through the creation of large nationally representative surveys of firms second neither households nor firms expectations respond much to monetary policy announcements in low inflation environments we provide suggestions for how monetary policy makers could pierce this veil of inattention through new communication strategies as well as the potential pitfalls to trying to do so

the formation of consumer inflation expectations new evidence from japan s deflation experience using a new data set we investigate the relationship between the inflation experience and expectations of households in japan focusing on the post 1995 deflationary era our first finding is that inflation expectations increase with age second we find that measured inflation rates also increase with age although age and inflation expectations continue to exhibit a positive correlation even after controlling for the household level inflation rate analysis suggests that the correlation between age and inflation expectations is driven largely by the correlation between cohort and inflation expectations which we interpret to represent the effect of historical inflation experience on inflation expectations

credit rationing and payment incentives a model of borrowing for production is presented where default leads to exclusion from the capital market this means contracts are enforceable provided the current payment is less than or equal to the value of future access to the capital market the main result of the paper is to show that if this constraint binds then credit is rationed

energy consumption and economic growth new evidence from meta analysis abstract the causal relationships between energy consumption and economic growth have given rise to much discussion but remain controversial alternative data sets based on different time spans countries energy policies and econometric approaches result in diverse outcomes a meta analysis using a multinomial logit model with 174 samples governing the relationships between gdp and energy consumption is applied here to investigate the major factors that affect these controversial outcomes the empirical results have demonstrated how the time spans subject selections including gdp and energy consumption econometric models and tools for greenhouse gases emission reduction characteristics significantly affect these controversial outcomes

incomplete information higher order beliefs and price inertia the question that motivates this paper is how incomplete information impacts the response of prices to nominal shocks our baseline model is a variant of the calvo model in which firms observe the underlying nominal shocks with noise in this model the response of prices is pinned down by three parameters the precision of available information about the nominal shock the frequency of price adjustment and the degree of strategic complementarity in pricing decisions this result synthesizes the broader lessons of the pertinent literature however this synthesis provides only a partial view of the role of incomplete information once one allows for more general information structures than those used in previous work one cannot quantify the degree of price inertia without data on the dynamics of higher order beliefs or of the agents forecasts of inflation we highlight this with three extensions of our baseline model all of which break the tight connection between the precision of information and higher order beliefs featured in previous work

time varying consumer disagreement and future inflation abstract the inflation expectations of over 285 thousand consumers are used to develop model free estimates of the monthly cross sectional mean dispersion asymmetry and extremeness of inflation expectations from 1995 to 2016 the moments provide a novel and direct measure of time varying consumer disagreement about prices i find that the higher order cross sectional moments of inflation expectations are highly informative about future inflation in contrast to popular assumptions these moments do not appear to be noise even after accounting for historical economic data the unanticipated components of the higher order moments are significantly associated with future inflation in effect the higher order moments are neither noise nor conventional economic news the results have significant implications for the widespread practice of trimming inflation expectations data the results also have implications for the study of information rigidities indicating that consumer inflation expectations broadly reflect two types of consumers the first type update their information set at a much faster rate than is typically estimated or assumed the second type have very high information rigidities and only update their information set in response to major economic events

what goes up recent trends in china s energy consumption since 1996 china s energy output has dropped by 17 while primary energy use has fallen by 4 driven almost entirely by shrinking output from coal mines and declining direct use since china is the world s second largest emitter of greenhouse gases it is important to understand the sources of this apparent transformation and whether it portends a permanent change in patterns of energy use this remarkable reversal of the long term expansion of energy use has occurred even as the economy has continued to grow albeit more slowly than in the early 1990s generation of electric power has risen implying a steep fall in end uses particularly in industry available information points to a variety of forces contributing to this phenomenon including rapid improvements in coal quality structural changes in industry shutdowns of factories in both the state owned and non state segments of the economy improvements in end use efficiency and greater use of gas and electricity in households a combination of slowing economic growth industrial restructuring broader economic system reforms and environmental and energy efficiency policies has apparently led to at least a temporary decline in and perhaps a long term reduction in the growth of energy use and therefore greenhouse gas emissions

a dynamic option value for institutional change marketable property rights in the sahel in this article we use dynamic programming methods to create an option value measure of the value of the institutional innovation of marketable property rights this measure has two properties that are important to understanding institutional change it is truly dynamic and it allows for agent heterogeneity in the case of west africa we find that the collapse of customary risk management institutions is a vital part of the demand for marketability rights as agents struggle to smooth income and consumption in its wake we find that the social efficiency implications of this demand for institutional innovation are ambiguous

beyond gdp measuring and achieving global genuine progress article i nfo while global gross domestic product gdp has increased more than three fold since 1950 economic wel fare as estimated by the genuine progress indicator gpi has actually decreased since 1978 we synthesized estimates of gpi over the 1950 2003 time period for 17 countries for which gpi has been estimated these 17 countries contain 53 of the global population and 59 of the global gdp we compared gpi with gross domestic product gdp human development index hdi ecological footprint biocapacity gini coefficient and life satisfaction scores results show a significant variation among these countries but some major trends we also estimated a global gpi capita over the 1950 2003 period global gpi capita peaked in 1978 about the same time that global ecological footprint exceeded global biocapacity life satisfaction in almost all countries has also not improved significantly since 1975 globally gpi capita does not increase beyond a gdp capita of around 7000 capita if we distributed income more equitably around the planet the current world gdp 67 trillion yr could support 9 6 billion people at 7000 capita while gpi is not the perfect economic welfare indicator it is a far better approximation than gdp development policies need to shift to better account for real welfare and not merely gdp growth

inflation expectations consumption and the lower bound micro evidence from a large multi country survey abstract using a large multi country survey and new pseudo panel dataset we investigate the spending response of consumers to their beliefs about future inflation the analysis exploits the deviation of expected inflation from the currently perceived inflation rate a choice motivated by local approximation of the traditional euler equation this helps control for unobserved heterogeneity and highlights a positive and economically relevant spending response that is generalised in the population and across countries also a stronger positive response is observed when the lower bound is binding thus lending credence to the stabilisation properties of higher inflation expectations during such episodes

inflation at the household level abstract we use scanner data to estimate inflation rates at the household level households inflation rates have an annual interquartile range of 6 2 9 0 percentage points most of the heterogeneity comes not from variation in broadly defined consumption bundles but from variation in prices paid for the same types of goods lower income households experience higher inflation but most cross sectional variation is uncorrelated with observables households deviations from aggregate inflation exhibit only slightly negative serial correlation almost all variability in a household s inflation rate comes from variability in household level prices relative to average prices not from variability in aggregate inflation

a century long perspective on agricultural development this article strategically surveys the past century s literature on agricultural development we organize the discussion around three grand themes that reveal the richness of agricultural development as an intellectual endeavor first we explore the role of agriculture in the broader development process from a macroeconomic and political economy perspective we then examine the role of technological and institutional change in successful agricultural development finally the focus turns to a microeconomic perspective on agricultural household decision making and the problems of imperfect and missing markets asymmetric information and transactions costs that lead to widespread apparent inefficiency and disequilibrium

the role of human social built and natural capital in explaining life satisfaction at the country level toward a national well being index nwi this paper investigates the contributions to life satisfaction of four basic types of capital human social built and natural life satisfaction data were available for respondents from fifty seven countries from the world values survey over the decade of the 1990s data on proxies for human social built and natural capital were available for 171 countries using data from the 1998 united nations human development report united nations development programme 1998 human development report 1998 oxford university press new york freedom house 1999 freedom house 1999 news of the century press freedom 1999 freedom house http freedomhouse org pfs99 pfs99 pdf september 30 2003 and sutton and costanza 2002 sutton p costanza r 2002 global estimates of market and non market values derived from nighttime satellite imagery land cover and ecosystem service valuation ecol econ 41 509 527 regression models show that both the un human development index hdi which includes proxies for both built and human capital and an index of the value of ecosystem services per km 2 as a proxy for natural capital are important factors in explaining life satisfaction at the country level and together can explain 72 of the variation in life satisfaction we did not find a proxy for social capital that was a significant predictor in the regression models this was due to the inadequacy of available proxy variables for social capital at the national scale and intercorrelation with other variables we discuss data limitations and a range of other problems with the existing limited data along with methods to overcome some of these limitations to improve future analyses we propose a national well being index nwi based on our findings and describe a path to improve it over time d 2005 elsevier b v all rights reserved

monetary policy and the information content of prices rational expectations and cleared markets lead to the proposition that feedback monetary policy is irrelevant to real activity as in the analyses of sargent and wallace however if agents are differentially informed and have access to a common price then prospective monetary policy actions future feedback to imperfectly known current circumstances can alter real activity by changing the information content of prices

sharecropping and the interlinking of agrarian markets one of the often noted features of less developed agrarian economies is the existence of interlinkages among the land labor credit and product markets the landlord is often the supplier of credit he frequently purchases and markets the output of the tenant farmers and often sells raw materials and even consumption goods to his tenant farmers how can this phenomenon be explained what are the welfare consequences of attempts to restrict these practices which often seem to constitute restraints on free trade these are the questions to which this paper is addressed a general set of arguments applicable to both competitive and noncompetitive environments are presented to situations where all the terms of the contract are determined in an optimal way as well as to situations where many of the terms are specified institutionally section i examines interlinked credit and tenancy contracts section ii examines interlinked marketing and tenancy contracts section iii points out the possible interlinking between labor contracts and consumption goods markets and section iv presents the different equilibrium frameworks discussed in the paper such as monopoly monopsony competition and equilibria with surplus labor

microfinance with chinese characteristics abstract analyzing household survey data from three microfinance program sites we provide an early systematic assessment of chinese microfinance programs which have grown rapidly since 1994 are based on the grameen model and include an unprecedented large scale government initiative we examine the empirical propositions that underpin successful microfinance programs reaching the poor targeting financial and operational performance sustainability and program benefits impact we find that nongovernmental programs perform well in all three areas but that governmental programs perform poorly given the remote location and focus on agricultural projects in china s poor areas we advocate greater flexibility in loan contract terms especially repayment schedules

does increasing energy or electricity consumption improve quality of life in industrial nations among the world s nations per capita energy and electricity consumption is highly correlated with diverse indicators of quality of life this is often interpreted to mean that additional energy and electricity consumption causes improvements in life quality prior analyses of cross sectional data question this interpretation for industrial nations that already have high per capita energy consumption the present analysis with longitudinal data shows that among industrial nations increases in per capita energy and electricity consumption over the past three decades are not associated with corresponding improvements in quality of life

dynamic pricing and imperfect common knowledge abstract introducing private information into the dynamic pricing decision of firms by adding an idiosyncratic component to marginal cost can help explain two stylised facts about price changes aggregate inflation responds gradually and with inertia to shocks at the same time as individual price changes can be large the inertial behaviour of inflation is driven by privately informed firms strategically herding on the public information contained in the observations of lagged aggregate variables the model also matches the average duration between price changes found in the data and it nests the standard new keynesian phillips curve as a special case to solve the model the paper derives an algorithm for solving a class of dynamic models with higher order expectations

distribution of energy consumption and the 2000 w capita target this viewpoint discusses the intra and international distribution of energy consumption and their implications for intergenerational equity for global development to be sustainable the inequality of energy consumption must have an upper limit a graphic depiction of energy consumption distributions intra and international shows that today s inequalities are large and it is argued that we may have already reached or perhaps even surpassed the sustainability limit of energy consumption inequality

energy and quality of life energy is required to sustain life a human centered analysis of the worldwide energy situation is conducted in terms of quality of life related variables that are affected but not directly determined by energy consumption data since 1980 show a continuous global increase in both energy consumption and quality of life and lower population growth in countries with higher quality of life based on these trends we advance non linear energy consumption predictions and identify various plausible scenarios to optimally steer future energy demands in order to maximize quality of life the scenarios consider the coupling between energy consumption rate per capita quality of life population growth social inequality and governments energy for life efficiency the results show the energy cost of increasing quality of life in the developing world energy savings that can be realized by limiting overconsumption without impacting quality of life and the role of governments on increasing energy for life efficiency and reducing social inequality

tenure constraints and carbon forestry in africa our analysis shows that landowners with customary tenure in africa can be efficient providers of carbon forestry if tree planting helps secure their permanent claims to the land if the farmer s tree planting can reduce the threat of eviction the amount of land allocated to carbon forestry may be greater or lesser than under private ownership but it is always more than if tenure security is completely absent our results support the view that carbon forestry schemes should accommodate traditional african customary tenure systems and if designed successfully can both promote carbon forestry and benefit the poor

bridging the energy divide and securing higher collective well being in a climate constrained world abstract despite the impressive gains in available energy over the last 200 years the associated benefits remain unevenly distributed bridging this divide only adds to the already daunting challenge of securing climate stabilization in fact efforts towards the former are more likely to conflict with the latter to be able to address this dilemma the relationship between energy consumption and human well being beyond its economic dimension needs to be better understood this paper aims to contribute to the emerging knowledge base by examining this relationship using a proxy for human well being that also considers its environmental and social dimensions the ultimate goal of this paper is to investigate the potential incompatibility between efforts towards the achievement of higher collective well being and those associated with climate stabilization to this end it provides estimates of the additional energy needed and its associated carbon emissions under different climate scenarios and compares them with existing carbon budgets results indicate that even if new climate policies were adopted emissions associated with higher well being in all regions where improvements are needed could still reach up to one and a half times estimated 2 c budgets and even more so for lower temperature increase targets

the inclusive wealth index a critical appraisal abstract among recent high profile propositions to revise national accounts and to provide new indicators of sustainability and well being the inclusive wealth framework and the related inclusive wealth index iwi undoubtedly stand out as one of the most promising endeavours built up at the confluence of welfare development and sustainability economics the indicator has been designed to bring information about the wealth of nations and their sustainability in a comprehensive way the inclusive wealth framework is nevertheless fraught with limitations due to questionable theoretical assumptions gaps in data availability unrealistic assumptions about the future and inability to account for distributional issues we propose a non exhaustive critical appraisal of the index and its underlying framework we conclude that these limitations undermine its capacity to fulfil the requirements of a satisfactory sustainability indicator we argue that most problems lie in the substantial discrepancy between the inclusive ambition of the indicator and the scarce means to implement it whereas the interconnectedness of the various assets that constitute wealth as well as their complex evolution through time are acknowledged by the proponents of inclusive wealth the way the iwi is computed is rather a mere addition of layers of actuarial like monetary values for a not inclusive yet range of capital assets caution is thus warranted while using such an approach and shorter range alternatives to pursue similar goals are proposed

price stickiness along the income distribution and the effects of monetary policy abstract monetary shocks have distributional consequences if they affect relative prices across goods consumed by different households we document that the prices of the goods consumed by high income households are stickier and less volatile than those of the goods consumed by middle income households following a monetary policy shock the estimated impulse responses of high income households consumer price indices are about one third smaller than those of the middle income households we evaluate the implications of these findings in a quantitative multi sector new keynesian model featuring heterogeneous households the distributional consequences of monetary policy shocks are large and similar to those in the econometric model

exploitation alternatives and socialism how can one understand the formation of inequality strata and classes and perhaps exploitation in socialist society among marxists there is no widely accepted materialist theory of the development of classes and inequality under socialism perhaps more noticeably there is no widely accepted theory of the political behaviour of socialist states indeed the response of many or most marxists to wars between socialist states for example is that at least one of the countries involved is not socialist this argument is tautological and not scientific since two socialist countries could never fight each other therefore the major premise that they are both socialist must be false the example of wars between socialist countries is given to point out the nature of a crisis in marxian theory that theory formulated in the late nineteenth century to explain the development of nineteenth century capitalism does not seem useful when applied to late twentieth century socialism and capitalism perhaps marxists cannot for instance agree on the nature of soviet society is it socialist capitalist state capitalist or transitional what definitions might one give to decide taking a cue from the marxian approach to capitalism one might seek to define a notion of exploitation relevant to socialist society from such a beginning could follow a theory of class and finally a political theory of socialist society as corollary to the theory of class this paper is an attempt to approach this set of problems in the way indicated by proposing a general theory of exploitation of which socialist exploitation will be a special case the task of providing a tlheory of exploitation relevant to socialist economies has much in common with the problem marx faced in providing a theory of exploitation for capitalist economies the economic problem for marx was to explain how the gross inequities of capitalism could be reproduced in an economy characterised by voluntary exchange in feudal and slave economies there was no mystery to the locus of surplus appropriation since the institution of labour exchange was coercive one could clearly speak of serf and slave labour as being forcibly expropriated due to those social relations under capitalism where the institution for labour exchange is noncoercive how could one speak of exploitation or expropriation of any commodity including labour power marx s effort was to re solve this paradox by providing a theory of value which claimed that despite the non coerciveness of the institution of labour exchange that exchange was exploitative thus he claimed that exploitation was a phenomenon which was robust when one

a critique of traditional agricultural credit projects and policies abstract authors critique the results assumptions and policies commonly associated with agricultural credit projects in low income countries a summary of new views on these projects is present these views emphasize voluntary savings mobilization and positive real rates of interest several explanations are given for why few of these new views have been adopted by policymakers

a literature survey on energy growth nexus abstract this paper provides a survey of the recent progress in the literature of energy consumption economic growth and electricity consumption economic growth causality nexus the survey highlights that most empirical studies focus on either testing the role of energy electricity in stimulating economic growth or examining the direction of causality between these two variables although the positive role of energy on growth has become a stylized fact there are some methodological reservations about the results from these empirical studies a general observation from these studies is that the literature produced conflicting results and there is no consensus neither on the existence nor on the direction of causality between energy consumption electricity consumption and economic growth as a policy implication to avoid from conflicting and unreliable results the authors may use the autoregressive distributed lags bounds test two regime threshold co integration models panel data approach and multivariate models including new variables such as real gross fixed capital formation labor force carbon dioxide emissions population exchange rates interest rates etc thus the authors should focus more on the new approaches and perspectives rather than by employing usual methods based on a set of common variables for different countries and different intervals of time

rural market imperfections and the farm size productivity relationship evidence from pakistan the subject of this article is the relationships between farm size and productivity and between farm size and profitability in the developing countries the recent controversies over the inverse size output relationship are reviewed and a framework is provided that explains the inverse relationship based on plausible assumptions about imperfections in the markets for labor land credit and risk from this framework a set of testable hypotheses are derived the hypotheses are tested on recent farm level panel data from pakistan a strong inverse relationship between farm size and yield is present in the sample even when household fixed effects are used to account for unobserved heterogeneity moreover the suggested market imperfections framework is consistent with the data

the relation between farm size and farm productivity the role of family labor supervision and credit constraints abstract the paper shows that if the performance of hired farmhands is affected by supervision from family members and if the availability of credit is dependent on the amount of land owned then a systematic positive or negative relationship between per acre yields and farm size will prevail a model with no supervision effects on labor productivity would predict that yields are unaffected by farm size the paper also investigates the relation between land utilization and owned holding size when land rental possibilities are limited results are shown to be compatible with various observed patterns in ldcs