mean reversion in short horizon expected returns this article develops and estimates a simple model for monthly expected stock returns that relies on the rapidly decaying structure of shorter horizon weekly expected returns the most striking aspect of our findings is that the rapid mean reversion in short horizon expected returns implies much greater variation through time in monthly expected returns than has been documented in earlier studies for instance during the 1962 to 1985 period over 25 percent of the return variance of small firms can be explained by time variation in expected returns article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

price setting in online markets does it click using a unique dataset of daily u s and u k price listings and the associated number of clicks for precisely defined goods from a major shopping platform we shed new light on how prices are set in online markets which have a number of special properties such as low search costs low costs of monitoring competitors prices and low costs of nominal price adjustment we document that although online prices are more flexible than offline prices they nevertheless exhibit relatively long spells of fixed prices large size and low synchronization of price changes considerable crosssectional dispersion and low sensitivity to predictable or unanticipated changes in demand conditions qualitatively these patterns are similar to those observed for offline prices a finding that suggests a need for more research on the sources of price rigidities and dispersion

new keynesianism and aggregate economic activity this paper addresses various attempts by so called new keynesians writing mainly in the 1980s and 1990s to strengthen the analytical basis in particular the microeconomic foundations of these assertions what exactly have then the new keynesians accomplished and how should their contributions be valued in the relation to other recent contributions to macroeconomics this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

performance feedback competitive repertoire simplicity and technological evolution in a televised design contest abstract research suggests that in industries where firms compete primarily on the relative merits of their designs performance feedback from repeated episodes of competitive rivalry often leads firms to focus their resources on progressively fewer design features applying miller and chen 1996a miller and chen 1996b concept of competitive repertoire simplicity we argue that the shift from broad to narrow set of technological options marking technological evolution is the product of multi level interaction between competitive design decisions made at the individual firm level and technological knowledge that accumulates at the industry level taking advantage of an elimination tournament called robot wars where competition is transparent regulated and is marked by repeat participation we examine repertoire simplicity and its escalation over iterative episodes of dyadic rivalry using a data set of 296 robotic designs over 4 episodes of this design contest we find evidence for a escalating repertoire simplicity causing convergence in design configurations and b hypothesized but rarely tested links between competition at the individual team level and technological evolution at the population level

lumpy consumer durables market power and endogenous business cycles in this paper we show that lumpy consumer durables and market power can generate endogenous cycles consistent with the facts past sales determine the current market size of durable goods larger past sales ceteris paribus thus naturally result in a smaller current market size and income in this manner the seeds of a downturn are sown in an upturn jel classification e32 e13 biens de consommation durables en gros morceaux pouvoir de marche et cycles d affaires endogenes ce memoire montre que des biens de consommation durables en gros morceaux et du pouvoir de marche peuvent engendrer des cycles endogenes qui se calquent sur les chroniques observees les ventes passees determinent la taille du marche present pour les biens durables de plus grandes ventes dans le passe toutes choses etant egales par ailleurs resultent naturellement en un marche present plus petit et des revenus moindres de cette maniere le germe du declin est deja contenu dans l expansion

a framework for the analysis of moderate inflations abstract optimal monetary policy is studied in a model with no contractual restrictions or physical costs of changing prices nevertheless the price level is sticky in a range of mark up indeterminacy and inflation occurs only when employment presses against capacity under full information the monetary authority can exploit price level stickiness to minimize the mark up and keep employment at a constrained optimum without inflation under uncertainty negative aggregate demand shocks produce real contractions and positive shocks raise the price level the monetary authority can raise the likelihood that aggregate demand will maximize employment but at the cost of higher expected inflation

the learning curve in a competitive industry we consider the learning curve in an industry with free entry and exit and price taking firms a unique equilibrium exists if the fixed cost is positive although equilibrium profits are zero mature firms earn rents on their learning and if costs are convex no firm can profitably enter after the date the industry begins under some cost and demand conditions however firms may have to exit the market despite their experience gained earlier furthermore identical firms facing the same prices may produce different quantities the market outcome is always socially efficient even if it dictates that firms exit after learning finally actual and optimal industry concentration does not always increase in the intensity of learning

multinational oil companies and the adoption of sustainable development a resource based and institutional theory interpretation of adoption heterogeneity sustainable development is often framed as a social issue to which corporations should pay attention because it offers both opportunities and challenges through the use of institutional theory and the resource based view of the firm we shed some light on why more than 20 years after sustainable development was first introduced we see neither the adoption of this business model as dominant nor its converse that is the total abandonment of the model as unworkable and unprofitable we focus on multinational corporations mncs because they were among the organizations first called to take action in order to illustrate the institutional pressures mncs face and their strategic response to these pressures we analysed four major oil and gas multinationals subject to similar sustainable development pressures climate change biodiversity renewable energy development and social investment we argue that normative and coercive isomorphism does not occur at the global level because sustainable development is largely a stakeholder driven rather than a broad social pressure that is host country interpretation of sustainable development pressures varies across an mnc s subsidiary network based on the analysis of the four major mncs annual reports from 2000 to 2005 we argue that mimetic isomorphism may occur but since it implies the use of complex and intangible resources mimetic processes are slow rare and discretionary

rational fix price dynamics abstract we study a macroeconomic model where stabilization problems arise as the result of a dynamic game of income distribution between capitalists and workers the two agents control the supply sides of the goods and labor markets respectively using price changes as strategic variables and a static fix price model with money labor and one macro commodity to correctly predict the behaviour of the economy at each instant of time the resulting medium run price dynamics is consistent with major stylized facts on business cycles it accounts for an empirical regularity that has been left unexplained by other models and suggests a new relationship between the functional income distribution and the economy s sensitivity to shocks

pairs selection and outranking an application to the s p 100 index pairs trading is a popular quantitative speculation strategy this article proposes a general and flexible framework for pairs selection the method uses multiple return forecasts based on bivariate information sets and multi criteria decision techniques our approach can be seen as a sort of forecast combination but the output of the method is a ranking it helps to detect potentially under and overvalued stocks a first application with s p 100 index stocks provides promising results in terms of excess return and directional forecasting

monopolistic competition and the effects of aggregate demand how important is monopolistic competition to an understanding of the effects of aggregate demand on output we ask the question at three levels can monopolistic competition by itself explain why aggregate demand movements affect output can it together with other imperfections generate effects of aggregate demand in a way that perfect competition cannot if so can it give an accurate account of the response of the economy to aggregate demand movements the answers are no yes and yes

how do incumbents respond to the threat of entry evidence from the major airlines this paper examines how incumbents respond to the threat of entry of competitors as distinguished from their response to competitors actual entry it uses a case study from the passenger airline industry specifically the evolution of southwest airlines route network to identify particular routes where the probability of future entry rises abruptly when southwest begins operating in airports on both sides of a route but not the route itself this dramatically raises the chance they will start flying that route in the near future we examine the pricing of the incumbents on threatened routes in the period surrounding such events we find that incumbents cut fares significantly when threatened by southwest s entry into their routes this is true even after controlling in several ways for airport specific operating costs the response of incumbents seems to be limited only to the threatened route itself and not to routes out of nearby competitor airports where southwest does not operate e g fares drop on routes from chicago midway but not chicago o hare the largest responses appear to be restricted to routes that were concentrated beforehand incumbents do experience short run increases in their passenger loads concurrent with these fare cuts this is consistent with theories implying incumbents will try to generate some longer term loyalty among current customers before the entry of a new competitor we examine evidence relating this demand building motive to frequent flyer programs and find suggestive evidence in favor of this notion there is only weak evidence that incumbents increase capacity on the routes

price dynamics in uk manufacturing a microeconomic view this paper examines the response of prices to cost and demand shocks in seventy five three digit and four digit industries in the united kingdom during the 1980s the results suggest that prices responded sluggishly to costs but virtually not at all to demand the short run response to materials and fuel shocks was much larger than the response to unit labor cost shocks and some of this difference persisted into the long run prices responded more sluggishly to cost and demand shocks when aggregate inflation was lower and finally pricing dynamics were more sluggish in less competitive industries copyright 1992 by the london school of economics and political science

price flexibility in channels of distribution evidence from scanner data in this study we empirically examine the extent of price rigidity using a unique store level time series data set consisting of i actual retail transaction prices ii actual wholesale transaction prices which represent both the retailers costs and the prices received by manufacturers and iii a measure of manufacturers costs for 12 goods in two widely used consumer product categories we simultaneously examine the extent of price rigidity for each of the 12 products at both final goods and intermediate goods levels we study two notions of price rigidity employed in the existing literature i the frequency of price changes and ii the response of prices to exogenous cost changes we find that retail prices exhibit remarkable flexibility in terms of both notions of price rigidity i e they change frequently and they seem to respond quickly and fully to cost changes furthermore we find that retail prices respond not just to their direct costs but also to the upstream manufacturers costs which further reinforces the extent of the retail price flexibility at the intermediate goods level of the market in contrast we find relatively more evidence of rigidity in the response of manufacturers prices to cost changes this despite the fact that wholesale prices change frequently and therefore exhibit flexibility according to the first notion of price rigidity

price dispersion and demand uncertainty evidence from u s scanner data i use the prescott 1975 hotels model to explain variations in price dispersion across items sold by supermarkets in chicago the effect of demand uncertainty on price dispersion is highly significant and quantitatively important my estimates suggest that more than 40 of the cross sectional standard deviation of log prices is due to demand uncertainty i also find that price dispersion measures are negatively correlated with the average price but are not negatively correlated with the revenues from selling the good across stores and weeks and with the number of stores that sell the good temporary sales are modeled as a reaction to unwanted inventories that are accumulated when the realization of demand is low the effect of demand uncertainty on the frequency of temporary sales is also highly significant and quantitatively important items with more demand uncertainty tend to accumulate unwanted inventories more often and tend to have temporary sales more often

why are prices sticky the dynamics of wholesale gasoline prices the menu cost interpretation of sticky prices implies that the probability of a price change should depend on the past history of prices and fundamentals only through the gap between the current price and the frictionless price we find that this prediction is broadly consistent with the behavior of nine philadelphia gasoline wholesalers nevertheless we reject the menu cost model as a literal description of these firms behavior arguing instead that price stickiness arises from strategic considerations of how customers and competitors will react to price changes

short seller influence on firm growth a threat rigidity perspective whereas most investors seek to maximize their investment there are some who profit from downward stock price movement engaging in such behavior is called short selling and it has increased con

deep time series forecasting for enhanced index tracking we consider the problem of enhanced index tracking whose objective is to construct a portfolio that maximizes the excess return and minimizes the tracking error between the returns of the tracking

the mne as a portfolio interdependencies in mne growth trajectory we conceptualize the mne as a portfolio of interdependent sub units and examine its growth trajectory in relation to its existing portfolio the empirical testing is based on a unique dataset that details all the location moves of us legal services mnes during 1949 2006 these mnes evolve in directions that follow from their past their portfolios affect their subsequent moves speaking for the impact of interdependencies among sub units on the evolution of mnes the portfolio exercises stronger impact on entry than on exit suggesting that different forces affect mnes expansion and contraction we outline strategic and organizational implications of the conceptualization of the mne as a portfolio

does competition reduce price dispersion new evidence from the airline industry we analyze the effects of competition on price dispersion in the airline industry using panel data from 1993 q1 through 2006 q3 competition has a negative effect on price dispersion in line with the textbook treatment of price discrimination this effect is pronounced for routes with consumers characterized by relatively heterogeneous elasticities of demand on routes with a homogeneous customer base the effects of competition on price dispersion are smaller our results contrast with those of borenstein and rose who found that price dispersion increases with competition we reconcile the different results by showing that the cross sectional estimator suffers from omitted variable bias

price discrimination in the airline market the effect of market concentration we test the hypothesis that price discrimination increases with competition in the airline market using a large cross section of tickets offered by several carriers on various routes we approximate price discrimination with marginal implicit prices of ticket restrictions that carriers typically use to price discriminate saturday night stayover re quirements and advanced purchase discounts we find that the restrictions are associated with lower airfares but that the discounts are smaller on routes with higher market concentration the results suggest that price dispersion attributed to ticket restrictions increases as markets becomemore competitive

you are close to your rival and everybody hates a winner a study of rivalry in college football we use a recent survey of college american football fans to study rivalry where we find the most intense rivalries occur between in state teams relatedly within a conference fans are more likely to target rivalrous feelings toward the winningest teams and in bowl championship series conferences teams who have been conference members for a longer proportion of time while the stakes are different from other settings such as warring nations college football teams compete for resources and often have loyal followings with strong emotional ties thus examining rivalrous feeling in this setting provides insights into rivalry more generally besides being of interest in its own right as college football is a multi billion dollar industry jel l22 l83 i introduction for millions of americans saturdays in the fall are synonymous with college american football college football has a pageantry all its own as people gather in groups sometimes in excess of 100 000 to cheer for their team and socialize even though many fans have no real connection to the university on the field the teams compete to win games and over the course of a season teams compete to win their conference title however many fans do not view all opponents in the conference in the same way games against some opponents are considered more important irrespective from their impact on conference standings for example the university of arizona and arizona state university have played for the territorial cup for over 100 years 1 similarly the university of wisconsin and the university of minnesota compete for paul bunyan s axe while the university of alabama and the university of tennessee play on the third saturday in october 2 sanford and scott 2014 find that fans are willing to pay higher ticket prices for rivalry games and these games generate significant television revenue despite the amateur status of the players college football is an 8 billion industry 3 several high profile teams are valued at over 100 million dollars each brewer et al 2011 team revenue comes from a variety of sources television rights merchandising fan support etc and on the field success and profit are connected through these channels in addition teams find themselves repeatedly battling over the resources needed to compete on the field namely players and coaches in this sense football rivalries are similar to rivalries between siblings firms or nations sibling rivalries form when children compete for scarce resources financial attention etc from their parents garg and morduch 1998 morduch 2000 the cola wars between coke and pepsi and the diaper wars between kimberly clark and procter gamble arise because these comparable companies offer slightly differentiated products in the same markets rivalries between warring nations also often involve prolonged competition over scarce resources goertz and diehl 1993 klein goertz and diehl 2006 rivalry is a subjective phenomenon kilduff elfenbein and staw 2010 but it has an identifiable set of antecedents geographical proximity is typically an important determinant of conflict even in the context of firm level rivalries as argued for instance in yu and canella 2007 identity also plays an important role in the creation of a rivalry menon thompson and choi 2006 finally history and the outcomes of previous interactions are another key determinant of rivalries kahneman and miller 1986 miller and chen 1996 all three of these factors are at play in college football conferences are typically comprised of comparable schools in a particular region fans identify with their team by wearing certain clothes and in more extreme cases with body paint and other adornments despite periodic conference realignment many teams play each other year after year thus we believe that in addition to being interesting in its own right examining what drives rivalrous feelings in college football can provide insight into rivalry more generally

price dispersion over the business cycle evidence from the airline industry this study provides empirical evidence documenting how price dispersion moves with the business cycle in the airline industry performing a fixed effects panel analysis on seventeen years of data covering two business cycles we find that price dispersion is highly pro cyclical this effect is especially pronounced for legacy carriers relative to low cost carriers we show that our empirical result is consistent with firms implementing second degree price discrimination tactics

some relations between volatility and serial correlations in stock market returns this article explores the relation between serial correlation and volatility for several different stock return series at daily and weekly frequencies it is found that serial correlations are changing over time and are related to stock return volatility an extension to the garch model is proposed and estimated revealing parameters consistent with other findings in this article copyright 1992 by university of chicago press

monopoly price discrimination and demand curvature this paper presents a general analysis of the eects of monopolistic third degree price discrimination on welfare and output when all markets are served su cient conditions involving straightforward comparisons of the curvatures of the direct and inverse demand functions in the dierent mar kets are presented for discrimination to have negative or positive eects on

dynamic competition and price adjustments the link between price rigidity and market structure has long been a topic of interest to researchers in both macroeconomics and industrial organization research on this subject with its antecedents in the widely debated topic of administered inflation has gone through several stages in recent years the focus of research has been on explaining the speed of price adjustment 8 7 11 4 2 3 a parallel line of research has been on the role of entry in disciplining the price behavior of incumbent firms 15 14 5 the current study extends previous work on price adjustment in several important ways most importantly we introduce dynamic elements of competition as measured by several disaggregated measures of domestic and import entry we are able to evaluate the extent to which price effects of entry into u s manufacturing are due to changes in desired prices or to changes in the speed of adjustment to desired prices we depart from previous studies in that we use pooled data to estimate by nonlinear regression methods both the desired target price change and the speed of adjustment across industries

monopoly with incomplete information recent theoretical research on principal agent relationships has emphasized incentive problems that arise when the parties involved are constrained by either asymmetric information or their inability to monitor each other s actions here we concentrate on the former constraint and consider the case of a single principal the monopolist the main contribution is to show that under a separability assumption strong conclusions can be drawn about the nature of optimal incentive schemes although the primary focus is on optimal quantity discounts in a monopolized market the results also shed light on related topics such as optimal income taxation and commodity bundling

overreaction delayed reaction and contrarian profits this paper presents a decomposition of short horizon contrarian profits into various sources based on an analysis os stock price reactions to common factors an firm specific information in sharp contrast with the conclusions in the extant literature we find that the lead lag structure in stock prices contributes less than 5 of the observed contrarian profits with most of the profits being attributable to stock price overreaction

separating the signal from the noise financial machine learning for twitter abstract most statistical arbitrage strategies in the academic literature solely rely on price time series by contrast alternative data sources are of growing importance for professional investors we contribute to bridging this gap by assessing the price predictive value of millions of tweets on intraday returns of the s p 500 constituents from 2014 and 2015 for this purpose we design a machine learning system addressing specific challenges inherent to this task at first building on the literature of financial dictionaries we engineer domain specific features along three categories i e directional indicators relevance indicators and meta features next we leverage a random forest to extract the relationship between these features and subsequent stock returns in a low signal to noise setting for performance evaluation we run a rigorous event based backtesting study across all tweets and stocks we find annualized returns of 6 4 percent and a sharpe ratio of 2 2 after transaction costs finally we illuminate the machine learning black box and unveil sources of profitability first results are both driven and limited by the temporal clustering of tweets i e the majority of profits stem from tweets clustered closely together in time corresponding to high event situations second the importance of included features follows an economic rationale e g tweets with positive sentiment tend to yield positive returns and vice versa third we find that stocks of medium market capitalization and from the consumer and technology sectors contribute most to our results which we interpret as a trade off between tweet coverage and tweet relevance

the evolution of collective strategy frames in high and low velocity industries we argue that the collective assumptions of firms drive their actions and practices and create the conditions of industry velocity in our view cognitive construction by firms is the primary driver of industry velocity this is in contrast to the contingency views common in the literature which hold that industry velocity plays a role by constraining and shaping firm strategies specifically we suggest that firms develop unique assumptions social networks and feedback mechanisms that these mechanisms perpetuate patterns of changes in collective beliefs and aggregate actions and that these patterns in turn shape high and low velocity conditions we examine these assertions by tracing the collective beliefs of three aircraft low velocity and semiconductor high velocity firms over a 20 year period 1977 1997 our results suggest that the cognitive construction view of industry velocity is reasonable

equilibrium price dispersion in retail markets for prescription drugs this study seeks to establish the empirical importance of price dispersion due to costly consumer search by examining retail prices for prescription drugs posted prices in two geographically distinct markets are shown to vary considerably across pharmacies within the same market even after one controls for variation due to pharmacy differences pharmacy heterogeneity accounts for at most one third of the observed price dispersion the empirical analysis hinges on the observation that consumers incentives to price shop depend on characteristics of the drug therapy cross sectional patterns in price distributions across drugs are consistent with the predictions of a search model prices for repeatedly purchased prescriptions for which the expected benefits of search are highest exhibit significant reductions in both dispersion and price cost margins

the seasonal cycle and the business cycle almost all recent research on macroeconomic fluctuations has worked with seasonally adjusted or annual data this paper takes a different approach by treating seasonal fluctuations as worthy of study in their own right our results show that seasonal fluctuations are an important source of variation in all macroeconomic quantity variables but are small or entirely absent in both real and nominal price variables the timing of the seasonal fluctuations consists of increases in the second and fourth quarters a large decrease in the first quarter and a mild decrease in the third quarter the paper demonstrates that with respect to each of several major stylized facts about business cycles the seasonal cycle displays the same characteristics as the business cycle in some cases even more dramatically than the business cycle that is we find that at seasonal frequencies as well as at business cycle frequencies output movements across broadly defined sectors move together the timing of production and the

deep learning with long short term memory networks for financial market predictions abstract long short term memory lstm networks are a state of the art technique for sequence learning they are less commonly applied to financial time series predictions yet inherently suitable for this domain we deploy lstm networks for predicting out of sample directional movements for the constituent stocks of the s p 500 from 1992 until 2015 with daily returns of 0 46 percent and a sharpe ratio of 5 8 prior to transaction costs we find lstm networks to outperform memory free classification methods i e a random forest raf a deep neural net dnn and a logistic regression classifier log the outperformance relative to the general market is very clear from 1992 to 2009 but as of 2010 excess returns seem to have been arbitraged away with lstm profitability fluctuating around zero after transaction costs we further unveil sources of profitability thereby shedding light into the black box of artificial neural networks specifically we find one common pattern among the stocks selected for trading they exhibit high volatility and a short term reversal return profile leveraging these findings we are able to formalize a rules based short term reversal strategy that yields 0 23 percent prior to transaction costs further regression analysis unveils low exposure of the lstm returns to common sources of systematic risk also compared to the three benchmark models

learning patterns in venture capital investing in new industries using an organizational learning perspective we link the decision by venture capital vc firms to invest early in a new high technology industry to three experiential learning mechanisms the familiarity associated with accumulation of early funding decisions the shaping or imprinting effect of the firm s very first such decision and the decay or forgetting associated with the dormancy of prior such decisions we find support for these learning patterns using data on the investments made by us vc firms between 1962 and 2004

deep neural networks gradient boosted trees random forests statistical arbitrage on the s p 500 abstract in recent years machine learning research has gained momentum new developments in the field of deep learning allow for multiple levels of abstraction and are starting to supersede well known and powerful tree based techniques mainly operating on the original feature space all these methods can be applied to various fields including finance this paper implements and analyzes the effectiveness of deep neural networks dnn gradient boosted trees gbt random forests raf and several ensembles of these methods in the context of statistical arbitrage each model is trained on lagged returns of all stocks in the s p 500 after elimination of survivor bias from 1992 to 2015 daily one day ahead trading signals are generated based on the probability forecast of a stock to outperform the general market the highest k probabilities are converted into long and the lowest k probabilities into short positions thus censoring the less certain middle part of the ranking empirical findings are promising a simple equal weighted ensemble ens1 consisting of one deep neural network one gradient boosted tree and one random forest produces out of sample returns exceeding 0 45 percent per day for k 10 prior to transaction costs irrespective of the fact that profits are declining in recent years our findings pose a severe challenge to the semi strong form of market efficiency

price rigidities and market structure conventional wisdom has it that a large part of the explanation of keynesian unemployment is the observed rigidities of wages and prices what has been lacking however is a satisfactory theory or conjunction of theories which explains how wages and prices can be at non market clearing levels the objective of this paper is to sketch out several alternative theoretical explanations of this phenomenon each in contrast with keynesian theory is consistent with the observation that as the economy goes into a recession real product wages do not increase and may in fact decrease all of the theories assume rational profit maximizing firms and all entail some important departure from the standard competitive paradigm the first three explanations represent minor adaptations of standard models

where do markets come from production markets have two sides producers are a fully connected clique transacting with buyers as a separate but aggregated clique each producer is a distinctive firm with a distinctive product each side continually monitors reactions of the other through the medium of a joint social construction the schedule of terms of trade each producer is guided in choice of volume by the tangible outcomes of other producers not by speculation on hypothetical reactions of buyers to its actions each producer acts purely on self interest based on observed actions of all others summarized through a feedback process the summary is the terms of trade schedule which reduces to constant price only in limiting cases the market emerges as a structure of roles with a differentiated niche for each firm explicit formulae both for firms and for market aggregates are obtained by comparative statics methods for one family of assumptions about cost structures and about buyers evaluations of differentiated products not just any set of firms can sustain terms of trade with any set of buyers there prove to be three main kinds of markets and three sorts of market failure within a parameter space that is specified in detail one sort of market paradox has a madison avenue flavor another is more conventional grind and a third crowded is a new form not included in any existing theory of markets current american industrial markets are drawn on for 20 illustrations of which three are presented in some detail inequality in firms market shares measured by gini coefficients is discussed

consumer search incomplete exchange rate pass through and optimal interest rate policy this paper studies utility maximizing monetary policy in a two country economy with consumer search frictions search frictions provide a microfoundation for incomplete exchange rate pass through and international deviations from the law of one price lop i show that optimal interest rate policy targets deviations from the lop and acts to mitigate the effect of search frictions in a quantitative setting with internationally correlated technology and preference shocks optimal policy generates positive cross country correlation of nominal interest rates

pricing in a customer market in standard pricing models movements in demand are partially offset by price responses in a customer market however price markups may decrease with high demand thus price may magnify rather than stabilize demand movements i consider a monopolist selling a good of which first time consumers are uncertain repeat customers know that the product works the monopolist trades the objectives of exploiting past customers and attracting new ones in a period with many new potential customers the monopolist gives more weight to attracting and lowers its markup last i examine some evidence on whether expansions are periods with disproportionately many new customers

airline market power and intertemporal price dispersion this paper analyzes the empirical relationship between market structure and price dispersion in the airline markets connecting the u k and the republic of ireland price dispersion is measured by the gini coefficient calculated using fares posted on the internet at specific days before takeoff we control for passengers heterogeneity in their purpose of travel as well as for such peak periods as christmas and easter our finding of a negative correlation between competition and price dispersion suggests that competition is likely to hinder the airlines ability to price discriminate although this effect appears to be lessened in peak periods

the timing and magnitude of retail store markdowns evidence from weekends and holidays we examine daily prices of eight goods at seventeen retail stores collected in ann arbor michigan over a four month period from november 1 to february 28 we focus on weekly and seasonal price patterns and on the frequency of price markdowns or sales there were frequent markdowns in the intensive shopping period prior to christmas and a tendency for such sales to occur on weekends we interpret these findings as evidence that a significant number of markdowns are timed to occur when shopping intensity is exogenously high we complement the imperfect information based motives for sales in the literature by contributing an additional element based on the role of bulk shopping and increasing returns in the shopping technology

assets and actions firm specific factors in the internationalization of u s internet firms by providing a nearly instant connection among parties at opposite corners of the world and enabling a variety of commercial exchanges the internet emerged as the technology expected to create a truly global market space internet firms faced the challenge of capitalizing on this development in this paper we examine what firm specific factors are associated with the propensity of pure u s based internet firms to enhance their international presence on the internet by developing country specific websites despite the assertion that all internet firms are born global our findings show that the pursuit of internationalization by internet firms is related to the levels of their intangible assets and strategic activity two types of intangible assets reputation and website traffic are positively related to the degree of internationalization so are the levels of competitive and cooperative activity and the interaction effects between reputation and competitive and cooperative activity these findings suggest that ideas from both resource based theory and research on competitive dynamics can contribute to understanding the internationalization of internet firms

pass through and consumer search an empirical analysis retail price pass through is one of the most important issues facing manufacturers of consumer packaged goods although retailers tend to pass higher wholesale prices through to consumers quickly and completely they often do not pass on trade promotions currently asymmetric pass through is commonly thought to result from retailers exercise of market power alternatively it may be because of consumer search behavior and retailers competitive response we test this theory using a panel threshold asymmetric error correction model applied to wholesale and retail scanner data for ready to eat cereal for a number of retailers in the los angeles metropolitan market we find that consumer search behavior contributes significantly to imperfect pass through by allowing pass through to depend on market power and consumer search costs we find results that are contrary to the conventional wisdom namely market power causes retail prices to fall quickly and rise slowly whereas consumer search behavior causes retail prices to rise quickly and fall slowly precisely the rockets and feathers phenomenon

booms busts and price dispersion using grocery store data we study the relationship between dispersion and the business cycle our findings reveal that overall there is no robust and significant relationship however these mask important heterogeneity in the cyclicality of dispersion at the category level

collusion fluctuating demand and price rigidity we study an infinitely repeated bertrand game in which an i i d demand shock occurs in each period each firm receives a private signal about the demand shock at the beginning of each period at the end of each period all information but the private signals becomes public we consider the optimal symmetric perfect public equilibrium sppe mainly for patient firms we show that price rigidity arises in the optimal sppe if the accuracy of the private signals is low we also study the implications of more firms and firms impatience on collusive pricing empirical evidence shows that prices in oligopolistic markets tend to be more rigid than prices in competitive markets dixon 1983 carlton 1986 this suggests that collusion may result in firms inflexible pricing behavior it is not obvious however that collusion causes price rigidity why do colluding firms not adjust prices according to changing environments by which they can potentially earn higher profits what limits colluding firms ability to coordinate thereby leading to price rigidity in this article we study how information asymmetry among firms limits colluding firms ability to respond to demand shocks and characterize the conditions under which prices are rigid specifically we consider private information about demand in an infinitely repeated bertrand game with two identical firms in which an i i d binary demand shock occurs in each period each firm receives a conditionally independent private signal about the underlying demand state at the beginning of each period and then charges a price the accuracy of private signals is measured by the probability of receiving a high respectively low signal conditional on a high respectively low underlying demand state therefore the lower the accuracy the higher the degree of informational asymmetry at the end of each period firms observe the underlying demand and the prices but they never observe their rivals signals we adopt symmetric perfect public equilibria sppe as our solution concept which requires that at each period firms pricing schemes

nonresponse and delayed response to competitive moves the roles of competitor dependence and action irreversibility competitive moves that are unchallenged or to which response is delayed are important weapons in a strategist s arsenal so variables that discourage or delay response are of great interest using

will a second mouse get the cheese learning from early entrants failures in a foreign market we examine the conditions that can facilitate or hinder the effectiveness with which a new entrant learns from the failures of prior entrants by analyzing the experiences of 822 japanese subsidiaries in china founded between 1979 and 2000 our conceptual arguments and empirical findings demonstrate that learning from the failure experiences of prior entrants increases a new entrant s survival chances when entering china further we find that the value of this learning is less effective when there is a greater level of heterogeneity in the causes of these failures however this learning is more effective when a new entrant s parent firm has ownership ties with investors who had ventures that failed previously in china

oligopolistic fixed price equilibria and the number of firms in this note we examine one of the potential macroeconomic explanations of cyclically inflexible prices discussed previously by stiglitz 1984 i e that of collusive behavior by oligopolists 1 we consider an industry with a fixed number of identical firms with linear cost functions that face a linear demand curve shifting stochastically between high and low demand periods firms are taken to behave in a standard nash cournot fashion in high demand periods we then derive the conditions under which collusion in low demand periods so as to keep the uniform market price at its high demand level constitutes a perfect equilibrium of the discounted infinitely repeated market game the credible threat which deters deviations from the fixedprice solution is that all firms will revert to their symmetric nash n strategies once any one firm is caught deviating from its allowed output under the fixed price f strategy our idea is that keeping prices fixed in this way may constitute a focal point in schelling s 1960 terminology which aids the coordination of firms collusive strategies 2 with perfect enforcement i e any deviation from the collusive strategy is discovered in a low demand period which is assumed in section ii we show that contrary to common belief such an f equilibrium is enforced whenever the number of firms exceeds a certain minimum level the intuition behind this result is that the equilibrium high demand price is a decreasing function of the number of firms making myopic quantity deviations from the symmetric f strategy more tempting in low demand periods the fewer firms there are the idea that oligopolistic behavior may lead to inflexible or administered prices has a long tradition in economics going back to means 1935 stigler 1962 and scherer 1970 2 an approach related to ours is rotemberg saloner 1986 who showed that fixed prices may arise under oligopolistic price competition when price wars are more likely under high demand

determinants of cross national knowledge transfer and its effect on firm innovation this study examines the determinants of international knowledge flow from a resource based perspective it evaluates the impact of cross national knowledge transfer on firm innovative performance based on 56 027 us patents owned by 53 selected firms in the us based pharmaceutical industry the results suggest that innovative performance is a curvilinear function of the international knowledge content used by a firm to innovate as hypothesized it was found that at 1 low and moderate levels of international knowledge content a firm s strategy to transfer international knowledge improves its innovative performance and at 2 higher levels of international knowledge content there are diminishing marginal returns to transferring knowledge from overseas

retail price fixity as a facilitating mechanism previous theoretical explanations for retail price fixity show that fixed retail prices can be consistent with either competitive or imperfectly competitive behavior we develop a conceptual model of retail pricing wherein fixed price points are facilitating mechanisms for tacit collusion a non cooperative equilibrium in fixed retail prices is supported through credible threats to revert to nash pricing if cheating is suspected we test the implications of this model using a two stage ordered probit approach in weekly supermarket pricing data the results show that price fixity does support collusive equilibria among retailers but other factors may also explain retail price behavior

price setting in the euro area some stylized facts from individual producer price data this paper summarizes the microevidence on the setting of producer prices in the euro area the main findings are i 21 of producer prices are adjusted each month ii producer prices are changed more frequently and by smaller amounts than consumer prices even after controlling for product characteristics iii price decreases are relatively frequent iv inflation correlates positively with the difference between the frequency of price increases and decreases and v there is substantial variation in price flexibility across sectors which can be explained in part by differences in the cost structure the degree of competition and the level of sectoral inflation

action characteristics as predictors of competitive responses a central question in competitive dynamics is whether a competitive response can be predicted this study links various characteristics of actions with the total number and the time lag of competitors responses the hypothesized relationships were tested with a sample of competitive moves among u s airlines the results suggested that responses are influenced by the characteristics of the actions that evoked them specifically the total number of competitors affected by an action and the importance to these competitors of the markets under attack by the action increase the number of competitive responses strategic as opposed to tactical actions or actions which require substantial implementation efforts reduce the number and delay the timing of rivals counteractions finally contrary to prediction competitors who have a high stake in the markets under attack by a competitive move react slowly

entry sunk costs and market structure typically models that study the role of sunk costs suppose that incumbent firms face entry by a single firm each period in this paper the set of equilibrium market structures that result when all firms are free to enter or exit and set prices each period are characterized the effect of sunk costs on the market structure is examined and it is shown that sunk costs can take on various forms each having a different effect on the set of equilibrium market structures costs that are sunk due to the existence of product specific capital do not in general deter entry rather entry deterrence is a necessary outcome only when costs are sunk due to the time it would take to leave the market

capital market imperfections and countercyclical markups theory and evidence during recessions output prices seem to rise relative to wages and raw material prices one explanation is that imperfectly competitive firms compete less aggressively during recessions that is markups of price over marginal cost are countercyclical the authors present a model of countercyclical markups based on capital market imperfections during recessions liquidity constrained firms boost short run profits by raising prices to cut their investments in market share the authors provide evidence from the supermarket industry in support of this theory during regional and macroeconomic recessions more financially constrained supermarket chains raise their prices relative to less financially constrained chains copyright 1996 by american economic association

countercyclical pricing in customer markets i present a dynamic model of price determination in customer markets that are subject to exogenous business cycle fluctuations the business cycle is described in terms of a markov process in which market demand alternates stochastically between fast growth boom and slow growth recession phases in the consumers preferred equilibrium outcome 1 prices are below the monopoly level and 2 prices are countercyclical when demand growth rates are positively correlated through time a firm faces a dynamic trade off when making its current price selection while a higher price may raise a firm s profit in the short term it also may diminish the firm s reputation for low prices leading to lower profits in the future

industrial price behaviour in india abstract this paper investigates industrial pricing rules in the indian economy focusing on the behaviour of the price cost relation over the cycle a price equation for aggregate industry is specified with regard to the possible existence of error correcting mechanisms in the data generating process and a crucial result from the theory of co integrated variables is exploited in the evaluation of the estimates this constitutes a fresh approach to the modelling of price behaviour in the indian economy the results warrant the conclusion that the mark up is a counter cyclical variable

market power and price movements over the business cycle this paper develops and tests implications of an oligopoly pricing model the model predicts that during a demand expansion the short run competitive price is a pure strategy nash equilibrium but in a recession firms set prices above the competitive price thus price markups over the competitive price are countercyclical prices set during a recession are more variable than prices set in expansions because firms employ mixed strategy pricing in recessions the empirical analysis utilizes hamilton s time series switching regime filter to test the predictions of the model fourteen out of fifteen industries have fluctuations consistent with this oligopoly pricing model

the effects of third degree price discrimination in oligopoly retail firms and restaurants commonly offer senior citizen discounts i suspect this practice is not motivated by altruism rather the behavior can be better explained as profit maximizing price discrimination these firms are setting a low price in a market which probably has high elasticity of demand but why should the demand of senior citizens be more elastic than average one possibility is that elderly people have below average income and they would not eat out if restaurant prices were high perhaps a more plausible explanation is that retired people simply have more time on their hands to spend commuting across town to take advantage of discounts the purpose of these discounts may then be to lure senior citizens away from other restaurants rather than to get them out of the house the analysis of third degree price discrimination has a long history a c pigou 1920 joan robinson 1933 and two articles on the subject have recently appeared in this review richard schmalensee 1981 hal varian 1985 the industry structure in these analyses is monopoly but an explicit model of some form of competition is obviously needed to study discriminatory discounts meant to attract customers from rival firms and even discounts meant to get people out of the house may have an oligopoly analysis which is qualitatively different from their monopoly anlysis in this paper i present a simple duopoly model of a differentiated products industry i show that a firm s price elasticity of demand in a market can be expressed as the sum of two parts the industry demand elasticity and the cross price elasticity the first measures the tendency of consumers in a market to stay home when the price goes up the second the tendency to switch suppliers in the monopoly case in which the crossprice elasticity is zero and the collusive case in which the cross price elasticity is irrelevant discrimination between markets is due to differences in industry demand elasticity in the noncooperative oligopoly case equilibrium price differentials can be accounted for both by differences in cross price elasticity as well as differences in industry demand elasticity total industry output when the firms can discriminate between two markets is compared to what it would be if discrimination were impossible which regime has larger output depends on the sum of the adjustedconcavity condition and the elasticity ratio condition the first predominates when the rival products are poor substitutes and the firms have approximate monopoly power while the second predominates at the other extreme where the products are close substitutes and the firms have almost no market power the adjusted concavity condition compares the relative curvature of demands in the two markets and was originally discovered by robinson 1933 in her analysis of monopoly price discrimination the elasticity ratio condition compares the relative difference in industry demand elasticity between the two markets with the relative difference in cross price elasticity according to the elasticity ratio condition a discriminatory discount due to high industry elasticity of demand would be more likely to increase total output than one due to high cross price elasticity the effect of discrimination on profit is also discussed the distinction made here department of economics university of wisconsin madison madison wi 53706 this paper is a revision of part of my doctoral dissertation i am grateful to steve matthews ken judd and john panzar for guidance in this research i also thank seminar participants at wisconsin the justice department and the 1986 econometric society meetings in new orleans and the discussant martin perry the excellent comments of the referees improved the exposition of the paper

price dispersion and inflation new facts and theoretical implications abstract in workhorse macroeconomic models price dispersion is a central determinant of welfare the cost of business cycles optimal inflation and the tradeoff between inflation and output stability while price dispersion increases with inflation in the models this relationship is negative in the data due to sales prices the comovement of price dispersion and inflation for regular prices is positive a model with sales can quantitatively match the comovement in the data whereas a range of similar models without sales cannot even for regular prices these findings have important implications for welfare calculations optimal inflation and the effects of monetary shocks

an investigation into the power of insiders in wage determination abstract this paper is concerned with the role of insider forces in wage determination various union and non union models of wage behaviour are considered and they imply that wages are a convex combination of internal and external factors certain union models also imply a degree of hysteresis data on fourteen british production industries reveal that i insider forces are important ii their importance is directly related to both union power and the degree of monopoly in the product market iii the state of the aggregate labour market is also important and iv hysteresis effects arising from insider power are only significant in a small minority of sectors

price discrimination in broadway theater a common thread in the theory literature on price discrimination has been the ambiguous welfare effects for consumers and the rise in profit for firms relative to uniform pricing in this study i resolve the ambiguity for consumers and quantify the benefit for a firm i describe a model of price discrimination that includes both second degree and third degree price discrimination using data from a broadway play i estimate the structural model and conduct various experiments to investigate the implications of alternative pricing policies the observed price discrimination may improve the firm s profit by approximately 5 relative to uniform pricing while the difference for aggregate consumer welfare is negligible also i show that the gain from changing prices in the face of fluctuating demand is small under the observed price discrimination

demand information and competition why do food prices fall at seasonal demand peaks prices for seasonal food products fall at demand peaks price declines are not driven by falling agricultural input prices indeed farm to retail margins narrow sharply i use electronic scanner data from a sample of us supermarkets to show that seasonal price declines are closely linked to market concentration and are much larger in markets with several rivals than where a single brand dominates seasonal demand increases reduce the effective costs of informative advertising and increased informative advertising by retailers and manufacturers in turn may allow for increased market information and greater price sensitivity on the part of buyers

price discrimination and retail configuration the hypothesis that price discrimination based on willingness to pay for quality can occur in multifirm markets is confirmed using microdata on gasoline retailing a test that discriminates between price structures associated with discrimination and with cost driven competitive differentials is developed and implemented with controls for variation in outlet and market characteristics a second test based on profitability variation rejects a competitive peak load pricing explanation for the observed price dispersion the data suggest that price discrimination at the retail level adds at least 9 a gallon to the average price of full service gasoline

prior conditions and early international commitment the mediating role of domestic mindset our study investigates why some firms engage in low international commitments such as exports in the early phases of internationalization whereas others leapfrog the internationalization process and start with high international commitments in the form of foreign direct investment fdi process models of internationalization propose that firms start with low commitment activities and gradually increase their commitments to international markets however recent empirical evidence has shown that many firms make high international commitments from the start our findings suggest that domestic resources and competitive action propensity affect early international commitments indirectly through domestic mindsets a domestic mindset refers to the knowledge structures of the top management team prior to starting international activities based on their managerial experience and learning in domestic markets our results suggest that knowledge and learning gained in domestic markets through diverse resource and competitive activities may be crucial in early international commitments

price dispersion in the small and in the large evidence from an internet price comparison site this paper examines four million daily price observations for more than 1 000 consumer electronics products on the price comparison site http shopper com we find little support for the notion that prices on the internet are converging to the law of one price in addition observed levels of price dispersion vary systematically with the number of firms listing prices the difference between the two lowest prices the gap averages 23 per cent when two firms list prices and falls to 3 5 per cent in markets where 17 firms list prices these empirical results are an implication of a general clearinghouse model of equilibrium price dispersion

pairs trading and outranking the multi step ahead forecasting case abstract pairs trading is a popular speculation strategy several implementation methods are proposed in the literature they can be based on a distance criterion or on co integration this article extends previous research in another direction the combination of forecasting techniques neural networks and multi criteria decision making methods electre iii the key contribution of this paper is the introduction of multi step ahead forecasts it leads to major changes in the trading system and raises new empirical and methodological questions the results of an application based on s p 100 index stocks are promising this methodology could be a powerful tool for pairs selection in a highly non linear environment

growth and income distribution with the dynamics of power in labour and goods markets the interaction between economic growth and income distribution is examined using kaleckian post keynesian models in which there are lags in investment and in which the dynamics of income distribution between wages and profits depends on changes in power relations in both the labour market and goods market by examining these two influences on distributional dynamics simultaneously the relative strength of which can change over the growth process it is shown that the growth distributional dynamics can involve non linearities multiple equilibria and instability the implications of policy induced changes including those in macroeconomic policy and labour market and antitrust policies on aggregate demand and distribution are examined for both wage led and profit led growth regimes copyright oxford university press

the cyclical behavior of price elasticity of demand the mark up of price above marginal cost can vary either procyclically or countercyclically across the business cycle depending upon competitive variations among industries the nature of aggregate demand growth international trade market elasticities and other factors the influence of the business cycle and changes in industry growth on market elasticities can in turn impact market performance via the inverse relationship of market elasticity of demand to price cost margin this paper provides evidence on the cyclical behavior of domestic price elasticity of demand for a panel of 38 four digit u s food manufacturing industries from 1972 to 1987 this is a sector that has been found in earlier studies to exhibit countercyclical price cost margins over this period recent theoretical work on business cycles under imperfect competition suggests that one reason for countercyclical profit margins is that elasticities of demand may become less elastic during recessions estimates of price elasticities of demand are used as the dependent variable in a regression model examining the influence of the business cycle and other variables on demand elasticity

pairs trading performance of a relative value arbitrage rule we test a wall street investment strategy pairs trading with daily data over 1962 2002 stocks are matched into pairs with minimum distance between normalized historical prices a simple trading rule yields average annualized excess returns of up to 11 for self financing portfolios of pairs the profits typically exceed conservative transaction cost estimates bootstrap results suggest that the pairs effect differs from previously documented reversal profits robustness of the excess returns indicates that pairs trading profits from temporary mispricing of close substitutes we link the profitability to the presence of a common factor in the returns different from conventional risk measures wall street has long been interested in quantitative methods of speculation one popular short term speculation strategy is known as pairs trading the strategy has at least a 20 year history on wall street and is among the proprietary statistical arbitrage tools currently used by hedge funds as well as investment banks the concept of pairs trading is disarmingly simple find two stocks whose prices have moved together historically when the spread between them widens short the winner and buy the loser if history repeats itself prices will converge and the arbi

cyclicality of markups and real wages in korea abstract this paper examines the cyclical patterns of markups real wages and labor share for korean industries markup ratio is greater than 1 in most industries markups are countercyclical and real wages and labor share are procyclical income distribution effect has more impact on determining markups than price and technology effect

the evolution of price dispersion in the european car market car prices in europe are characterized by large and persistent differences across countries the purpose of this paper is to document and explain this price dispersion using a panel data set extending from 1980 to 1993 we first demonstrate two main facts concerning car prices in europe i the existence of significant differences in quality adjusted prices across countries with italy and the u k systematically representing the most expensive markets 2 substantial year to year volatility that is to a large extent accounted for by exchange rate fluctuations and the incomplete response of local currency prices to these fluctuations these facts are analysed within the framework of a multiproduct oligopoly model with product differentiation the model identifies three potential sources for the international price differences price elasticities generating differences in markups costs and import quota constraints local currency price stability can be attributed either to the presence of a local component in marginal costs or to markup adjustment that is correlated with exchange rate volatility the latter requires that the perceived elasticity of demand is increasing in price we find that the primary reason for the higher prices in italy is the existence of a strong bias for domestic brancs that generates high markups for the domestic firm fiat in the u k higher prices are mainly attributed to better equipped cars and or differences in the dealer discount practices the import quota constraints are found to have a significant impact on japanese car prices in italy france and the u k with respect to local currency price stability a large percentage of the documented price inertia can be attributed to local costs and a smaller fraction to markup adjustment that is indicative of price discrimination based on these results we conjecture that the emu will substantially reduce the year to year volatility observed in the car price data but without further measures to increase european integration it will not completely eliminate existing cross country price differences

the cyclical behavior of marginal cost and price the author examines the cyclical behavior of price marginal cost margins for u s manufac turing after 1956 short run marginal cost is markedly procyclical this is primarily due to procyclical overtime payments incurred beca use employment is not perfectly flexible in most industries output price fails to respond to the cyclical movement in marginal cost so price marginal cost margins are markedly countercyclical the res ults contradict business cycle theories that explain low production i n a recession by a high real cost of producing they support theories that explain low production in a recession by the inability of firms to sell their output copyright 1987 by american economic association

organizational capabilities and the economic history of the industrial enterprise in my book scale and scope 1990 i focused on the history of the modern industrial firm from the 1880s when such firms first appeared through world war ii i did so by comparing the fortunes of more than 600 enterprises the 200 largest industrial firms at three points in time world war i 1929 and world war ii in each of the three major industrial economies those of the united states britain and germany in this paper i first describe the similarities in the historical beginnings and continuing evolution of these enterprises and then outline my explanation for these similarities next i relate my explanation of these empirical regularities to four major economic theories relating to the firm the neoclassical the principal agent the transaction cost and the evolutionary finally i suggest the value of the transactions cost and evolutionary theories to historians and economists who are attempting to explain the beginnings and growth of modern industrial enterprises

marginal cost pricing when spot markets are complete the standard formulation of a spot market subject to uncertain excess demand uses a tatonnement process that restricts trade until the market clearing price is found here i present a model in which there is no restriction on trade during the process of the resolution of uncertainty about aggregate excess demand the idea is to enlarge the commodity space and define goods by the probability that they will sell in addition to other characteristics the probability of sale characteristic is the spot market analogue of the contingencies under which delivery will take place in the arrow debreu model a failure to distinguish goods by the probability of sale characteristic can lead to the rejection of the competitive paradigm even when everyone is a price taker and the allocation is efficient

equilibrium price dispersion under demand uncertainty the roles of costly capacity and market structure when capacity is costly and prices are set in advance firms facing uncertain demand will sell output at multiple prices and limit the quantity available at each price i show that the optimal price strategy of a monopolist and the unique pure strategy nash equilibria of oligopolists both exhibit intrafirm price dispersion moreover as the market becomes more competitive prices become more dispersed a pattern documented in the airline industry while generating similar predictions the model differs from the revenue management literature because it disregards market segmentation and fare restrictions that screen customers

the simplicity of competitive repertoires an empirical analysis this research explores the notion of competitive simplicity a tendency of some firms to concentrate intensely on just a few central activities our focus here is the simplicity inherent in the repertoire of concrete market oriented actions used by companies to compete these actions include product introductions pricing or advertising decisions and changes in market scope the simplicity of a competitive repertoire can be assessed by its range of actions and its degree of concentration on one or a few dominant types of actions we argue that competitive simplicity is largely a function of organizational and environmental properties that attenuate managerial search or restrict knowledge of competitive alternatives these properties include good performance munificent homogeneous or certain markets a lack of breadth in competitive experiences and the complacency that may accompany age and size paradoxically although good past performance may contribute to simplicity simplicity can hurt subsequent performance especially during periods of uncertainty and growth many of these ideas were borne out in a study of the major carriers of the post deregulation domestic airline industry

holiday price rigidity and cost of price adjustment the thanksgiving christmas holiday period is a major sales period for us retailers due to higher store traffic tasks such as restocking shelves handling customers questions and inquiries running cash registers cleaning and bagging become more urgent during holidays as a result the holiday period opportunity cost of price adjustment may increase dramatically for retail stores which should lead to greater price rigidity during holidays we test this prediction using weekly retail scanner price data from a major midwestern supermarket chain we find that indeed prices are more rigid during holiday periods than non holiday periods for example the econometric model we estimate suggests that the probability of a price change is lower during holiday periods even after accounting for cost changes moreover we find that the probability of a price change increases with the size of the cost change during both the holiday as well as non holiday periods we argue that these findings are best explained by higher price adjustment costs menu cost the retailers face during the holiday periods our data provides a natural experiment for studying variation in price rigidity because most aspects of market environment such as market structure industry concentration the nature of long term relationships contractual arrangements etc do not vary between holiday and nonholiday periods we therefore are able to rule out these commonly used alternative explanations for the price rigidity and conclude that the menu cost theory offers the best explanation for the holiday period price rigidity

the impact of cyclical demand movements on collusive behavior recent work by rotemberg and saloner 1986 investigates the effect of the business cycle on optimal collusive pricing by specifying that demand is subject to i i d shocks an implication of the i i d assumption is that firms expectations on future demand are unrelated to the current level of demand we put forth a model that allows for both the level of current demand and firms expectations on future demand to change over time thus it captures two important properties of the business cycle our analysis reveals that while the gain to deviating from a collusive agreement is greatest during booms firms find it most difficult to collude during recessions as the forgone profits from inducing a price war are relatively low an implication of this effect for pricing behavior is that at the same level of demand price is lower when demand is declining than when demand is rising consistent with previous theoretical work we find that firms price countercyclically for a range of values for the discount factor however numerical simulations reveal a greater tendency for firms to price countercyclically during recessions than during booms