how to identify trust and reciprocity this paper uses a three games or triadic design to identify trusting and reciprocating behavior a large literature on single game trust and reciprocity experiments is based on the implicit assumption that subjects do not have altruistic or inequality averse other regarding preferences such experimental designs test compound hypotheses that include the hypothesis that other regarding preferences do not affect behavior in contrast experiments with the triadic design do discriminate between transfers resulting from trust or reciprocity and transfers resulting from other regarding preferences that are not conditional on the behavior of others decomposing trust from altruism and reciprocity from altruism or inequality aversion is critical to obtaining empirical information that can guide the process of constructing models that can increase the empirical validity of game theory

stochastic convenience yield and the pricing of oil contingent claims this paper develops and empirically tests a two factor model for pricing financial and real assets contingent on the price of oil the factors are the spot price of oil and the instantaneous convenience yield the parameters of the model are estimated using weekly oil futures contract prices from january 1984 to november 1988 and the model s performance is assessed out of sample by valuing futures contracts over the period november 1988 to may 1989 finally the model is applied to determine the present values of one barrel of oil deliverable in one to ten years time

a microeconometric test of the theory of exhaustible resources abstract this paper generalizes extant developments of the economic theory of exhaustible resource production derives and extends a halvorsen and smith 1991 quarterly journal of economics 106 123 140 type test of the theory and applies the test to a sample of natural gas resources to facilitate our empirical test we extend the model developed in chermak and patrick 1995 journal of environmental economics and management 28 174 189 to explicitly account for the fact that the extracted resource gross product must be processed to obtain the final saleable product duality theory is used to derive econometric models with which the theory is statistically tested using panel data from 29 natural gas wells shadow prices of the resource stock through time which are generally unobservable but necessary for the test are estimated via the indirect cost function contrary to the extant literature we find inter alia that i at any point in time ceteris paribus the in situ resource price a decreases with gross production and b increases with final production and ii we cannot reject the theory of exhaustible resources i e producer behavior is consistent with the theory

on representative social capital abstract this paper analyzes the behavior of subjects randomly drawn from the dutch population who reveal their capacity to provide and sustain social capital by their propensity to invest and reward investments in an economic experiment we find that heterogeneity in behavior is characterized by several asymmetries men the young and elderly and low educated individuals invest relatively less but reward significantly more investments the age effects are found to corroborate existing findings whereas those of gender and education do not higher expected levels of investments by others are found to have a positive and significant effect on own investments finally a laboratory experiment with student subjects is found to provide a lower bound of the population level of social capital

evaluating natural resource investments notwithstanding impressive advances in the theory of finance over the past 2 decades practical procedures for capital budgeting have evolved only slowly the standard technique which has remained unchanged in essentials since it was originally proposed see dean 1951 bierman and smidt 1960 derives from a simple adaptation of the fisher 1907 model of valuation under certainty under this technique expected cash flows from an investment project are discounted at a rate deemed appropriate to their risk and the resulting present value is compared with the cost of the project this standard textbook technique reflects modern theoretical developments only insofar as estimates of the discount rate may be obtained from crude application of single period asset pricing theory but see brennan 1973 bogue and roll 1974 turnbull 1977 constantinides 1978 the inadequacy of this approach to capital budgeting is widely acknowledged although not widely discussed its obvious deficiency is its the evaluation of mining and other natural resource projects is made particularly difficult by the high degree of uncertainty attaching to output prices it is shown that the techniques of continuous time arbitrage and stochastic control theory may be used not only to value such projects but also to determine the optimal policies for developing managing and abandoning them the approach may be adapted to a wide variety of contexts outside the natural resource sector where uncertainty about future project revenues is a paramount concern

distinguishing trust from risk an anatomy of the investment game the role of trust in promoting economic activity and societal development has received considerable academic attention by social scientists a popular way to measure trust at the individual level is the so called investment game berg dickhaut and mccabe 1995 it has been widely noted however that risk attitudes can also affect decisions in this game and thus in principle confound inferences about trust we provide novel evidence shedding light on the role of risk attitudes for trusting decisions to the best of our knowledge our data are the first rigorous evidence that i aggregate investment distributions differ significantly between trust and risk environments and ii risk attitudes predict individual investment decisions in risk games but not in the corresponding trust games our results are convergent evidence that trust decisions are not tightly connected to a person s risk attitudes and they lend support to the trust interpretation of decisions in investment games

resource curse or not a question of appropriability this thesis presents three self contained essays focusing on empirical questions in growth and development economics each article addresses specific questions on why countries perform differently in particular i analyse the effect of democracy on economic development the relationship between natural resources and growth and the efficiency of foreign development assistance in the first essay democracy consolidation and growth i analyse the effect of democracy on economic growth in this context i argue that an important aspect to consider is how consolidated political systems are put simply i find that it is not only a question of how democratic countries are but also how long they have been democratic in other words economic performance tends to improve with the duration of uninterrupted democracy the performance of autocracies on the other hand tends to deteriorate over time however for newly established political systems there seems to be a cost of being democratic this implies that democracies only bear their fruit after some time the analysis has important policy implications to overcome initial straits international assistance focused on democratic consolidation may be important and a very good investment in fostering long run development the second essay resource curse or not a question of appropriability together with anne boschini and jesper roine is concerned with the relation between natural resources and economic development for most laymen as well as for most economists it would seem reasonable that countries richly endowed in natural resources also benefit from this wealth however a large literature has found a systematic negative effect of natural resource abundance on economic growth we suggest that this so called resource curse is not determined by resource endowments alone but rather by the interaction between the type of resources a country possesses and the quality of institutions in the country this combination of factors determines what we call the appropriability of a resource the concept of appropriability captures the likelihood of natural resources leading to rentseeking corruption or conflicts which in turn will harm economic development our results suggest that if institutions are good enough the curse may be turned into a blessing this may explain why some countries such as norway and botswana tend to benefit from their resources while others such as angola and sierra leone do not the third and final essay of this thesis foreign sectoral aid fungibility growth and poverty reduction is a contribution to the aid efficiency literature which is concerned with the question of whether aid helps or hinders economic development foreign development assistance is often targeted on specific public expenditure sectors if this aid is not used in the sector for which it was granted e g health education it is said to be fungible and donors may end up financing something completely different from what they intended e g military expenditures the major concern about sectoral fungibility is that the alternative use of aid may be less productive or less socially useful however measuring fungibility is not sufficient to determine whether foreign sectoral aid fungibility is actually harmful what is important is how the funds treated as fungible are used the essay starts by obtaining estimates of fungibility for 57 countries the results suggest that sectoral aid is indeed largely treated as fungible by recipient countries next to assess the economic and health effects of fungibility these estimates are incorporated into an empirical model of aid and growth as well as into a model of aid and infant mortality altogether i find no evidence of more fungible sectoral aid leading to worse performance

price scarcity rent and a modified r per cent rule for non renewable resources since hotelling s seminal paper on the optimal depletion of exhaustible resources much has been published yet confusion remains about whether scarcity rent and price increase or decrease as a resource is depleted when costs tend to rise with depletion we show that hotelling s fundamental results of rising scarcity rent and price paths are sustained and that the path of scarcity rent converges on the r per cent rule provided the objective function is concave predictions of non monotonic or declining scarcity rent paths are due to implicit assumptions that lead to a non concave objective function we identify the sources of these non concavities jel classification q30 d90 c60 prix rente de rarete et une regle modifiee du r pourcent pour les ressources non renouvelables malgre la volumineuse litterature specialisee qui a fleuri depuis qu hotelling a ecrit son memoire fondateur sur l epuisement optimal des ressources renouvelables une grande confusion regne toujours quand il faut etablir si la rente de rarete et le prix augmentent ou chutent a proportion que la ressource s epuise quand les couts tendent a croitre avec l epuisement ce memoire montre que les resultats fondamentaux obtenus par hotelling quant aux sentiers de croissance de la rente de rarete et du prix tiennent toujours et que le sentier de croissance de la rente de rarete converge vers la regle du r pourcent pourvu que la fonction objective soit concave les predictions de sentiers de croissance non monotone ou de declin de la rente de rarete presentees dans la litterature specialisee sont attribuables a des postulats implicites qui engendrent une fonction objective non concave les auteurs identifient les sources de ces non concavites

inherited trust and growth this paper develops a new method to uncover the causal effect of trust on economic growth by focusing on the inherited component of trust and its time variation we show that inherited trust of descendants of us immigrants is sig nificantly influenced by the country of origin and the timing of arrival of their forebears we thus use the inherited trust of descendants of us immigrants as a time varying measure of inherited trust in their country of origin this strategy allows to identify the sizeable causal impact of inherited trust on worldwide growth during the twentieth century by controlling for country fixed effects jel n11 n12 n31 n32 o47 z13

economic indicators of resource scarcity a critical essay abstract the theoretical arguments of the conceptual and empirical literature on economic indicators of long run resource scarcity are logically flawed if resource allocators were informed of the nature of resource scarcity their behavior and the economic indicators it generates would reflect the scarcity but if they were so informed we could simply ask them if resources were scarce if they are not informed their behavior and economic indicators are as likely to indicate their ignorance as the reality unfortunately there is no way of knowing whether they are informed or not unless we already know whether resources are scarce

use value exchange value and resource scarcity abstract i review the literature on natural resource scarcity indicators scarcity indicators can be classified by what is being measured value of the resource stock or value of extracted resource commodities who s value is considered social vs private scarcity and by the mode of valuation considered exchange value and use value prices and rents are common measures of exchange value or indicators of exchange scarcity and unit costs can be seen as use value indicators or indicators of use scarcity the major aim of this paper is to demonstrate the links between productivity indicators such as unit costs and the classical concept of use value the two classes of indicator relate to john commons discussions of scarcity and efficiency and a marginal vs a non marginal approach to value and scarcity the classical use value concept also has wider relevance for issues of valuation in energy resource and environmental policy

trust under the prospect theory and quasi hyperbolic preferences a field experiment in vietnam abstractwe conduct a field experiment in vietnamese villages to explore the effect of the prospect theory and of quasi hyperbolic time preferences parameters on trust and trustworthiness we find that risk aversion loss aversion and present bias do not influence trustors decisions but higher time discounting increases the amount sent to trustees in the south of vietnam and probability weighting decreases it in the north if time discounting and loss aversion do not influence trustworthiness we show that more risk averse and less present biased trustees return a higher share of their wealth to the trustors these results suggest that adopting a perspective other than the expected utility theory and the exponential discounting approach of time preferences enables one to uncover some channels by which risk and intertemporal time preferences influence trusting behavior in societies

labour productivity in spain 1977 2002 this study examines the evolution of labour productivity across spanish regions during the period from 1977 to 2002 applying the kernel technique we estimate the effects of the transition process on labour productivity and its main sources we find that spanish regions experienced a major convergence process in labour productivity mostly driven by human capital in the 1977 1993 period conversely the dynamics of investment in physical capital appear to be neutral with respect to the transition dynamics of labour productivity finally from 1995 to 2002 no dynamic processes seemed to have taken place spanish regions exhibit a persistent relative position with established convergence clubs the human capital effect is less important and the investment in physical capital seems not to have a triggering effect on labour productivity growth

testing the efficiency of extraction from a stock resource the theoretical conditions for efficient extraction from a known stock resource by a competitive mining firm are reviewed these conditions are tested using proprietary data from a mining firm output price data and coefficient estimates from a translog cost system are used to compute the in situ value of the resource and the stock effect changes in the in situ value over time are then statistically compared with the expected price path the results reject the hypothesis that the data are consistent with the theoretical model and the maintained hypotheses variations of the basic model that incorporate a time varying discount rate an alternative expected price series and a constraint on the rate of output are also tested and rejected 46 references 10 tables

human capital information and the early adoption of new technology when producers are uncertain or have imperfect information about the profitability of adopting new technology their adoption behavior depends on the endowment of human capital and the investment in adoption information this study analyzes the role of education experience and information acquisition in the decision to be an early adopter the findings support the hypothesis that adoption decision making is a human capital intensive activity the econometric evidence presented suggests that education and information reduce adoption costs and uncertainty and thereby raise the probability of early adoption adoption behavior is also shown to vary significantly across firm size

the impact of human capital on labour productivity in manufacturing sectors of the european union the effects of human capital on both the level and growth of labour productivity in manufacturing sectors in seven member states of the european union are analysed distinguishing between four effects of human capital worker allocative diffusion and research human capital is represented by the shares of intermediate and highly skilled workers in the workforce of a sector it is shown that the manufacturing sectors can be divided into three classes of sectors with different intensities of highly skilled workers low medium and high skill sectors the estimation results show that both intermediate and highly skilled labour have a positive effect on the labour productivity of a sector although the effect is only significant for highly skilled labour moreover there are indications of underinvestment of human capital in some manufacturing sectors these sectors could improve their competitive position by raising the employment shares of intermediate and highly skilled labour finally intermediate sk

population growth externalities to childbearing and fertility policy in developing countries government financed family planning programs that assist individual couples to attain their desired number of children are easily justified but government policies that coerce or use financial incentives to influence couples to alter their desired number of children require stronger justification such justification may reside in the externalities to childbearing the costs and benefits of children that are passed on by parents to society externalities to childbearing might include public costs of education health and pensions as well as taxes to be paid by children in the future cost sharing for public goods and social infrastructure over an enlarged tax base the dilution of per capita value of various forms of collective wealth and the reduction of wages and per capita incomes in the future the authors estimated these externalities for a number of developing countries although the net total estimated externality was typically negative it dominated measurement error only when public holdings of natural resources were important public expenditures on health education and pensions financed by proportional taxes led to negative externalities in most developing countries there are many sources of positive and negative externalities and each estimate is uncertain so the total externality is itself highly uncertain and often does not provide a clear case for policies going beyond family planning inclusion of environmental effects might alter this conclusion

cost specification and firm behaviour in a hotelling model of resource extraction in applied resource economics much attention has been focused on the ability of the hotelling model to explain observed firm behavior in this paper a preliminary specification search is performed to determine the appropriate cost function parameterization for the firms in the sample before proceeding to the estimation of the euler equation once a cost function specification is chosen the corresponding euler equation is estimated via the generalization method of moments gmm which allows for better estimates of the euler equations than in previous studies even with the preliminary specification search and the use of gmm estimation the behavior of the panel of fourteen canadian copper mining firms in the data set examined does not seem to be consistent with the basic hotelling model used

the adoption of interrelated innovations a human capital approach a hstract this paper develops a model of the decision to adopt interrelated innovations emphasizing the role of innovative ability and a measure of the economic incentive to be informed about innovations education experience and the availability of information are hypothesized to be measurable dimensions of innovative ability the results from fitting univariate conditional and joint logistic models suggest that innovative ability contributes significantly to explaining the adoption of new technology but does not explain its diffusion the results also indicate that the diffusion of previously available innovations depends on the introduction and adoption of interrelated current innovations

choice and procrastination author s o donoghue ted rabin matthew abstract recent models of procrastination due to self control problems assume that a procrastinator considers just one option and is unaware of her self control problems we develop a model where a person chooses from a menu of options and is partially aware of her self control problems this menu model replicates earlier results and generates new ones a person might forego completing an attractive option because she plans to complete a more attractive but never to be completed option hence providing a non procrastinator additional options can induce procrastination and a person may procrastinate worse pursuing important goals than unimportant ones

time to change what to sow risk preferences and technology adoption decisions of cotton farmers in china this paper examines the role of individual risk attitudes in the decision to adopt a new form of agricultural biotechnology in china i conducted a survey and a field experiment to elicit the risk preferences of chinese farmers who faced the decision of whether to adopt genetically modified bt cotton a decade ago in my analysis i expand the measurement of risk preferences beyond expected utility theory to incorporate prospect theory i find that farmers who are more risk averse or more loss averse adopt bt cotton later farmers who overweight small probabilities adopt bt cotton earlier

still different after all these years solidarity behavior in east and west germany abstract using data from laboratory experiments we find that east germans show consistently less solidarity than west germans there has been no convergence in the 20 years after the reunification while it has recently been estimated that political values converge 20 to 40 years after the reunification alesina and fuchs schundeln 2007 we conclude from our findings that social behavior changes more slowly than political values we hypothesize that this is due to complementarities involved in individual social behavior and the necessity to coordinate on social norms on the society level

trust and the reference points for trustworthiness in gulf and western countries why is private investment so low in gulf compared to western countries we investigate cross regional differences in trust and reference points for trustworthiness as possible factors experiments controlling for cross regional differences in institutions and beliefs about trustworthiness reveal that gulf citizens pay much more than westerners to avoid trusting and hardly respond when returns to trusting change these differences can be explained by subjects gain loss utility relative to their region s reference point for trustworthiness the relation based production of trust in the gulf induces higher levels of trustworthiness albeit within groups than the rule based interactions prevalent in the west

mineral depletion with cost as the extraction limit a model applied to the behavior of prices in the nickel industry abstract this article follows papers by pindyck and heal and barrow in applying a hotelling type depletion model to a particular resource industry in this case that of nickel by means of the model the resource rent per ton of nickel is calculated as the proper index of extractive resource scarcity the time path of this resource rent indicates that the model explains industry behavior well and that as in the two previous studies depletion has been an important determinant of prices and rents in this industry

studying firm specific effects of regulation with stock market data an application to oil price regulation regulations are often introduced and reformed in response to unanticipated changes in market forces in late 1973 for example opec quadrupled the world price of oil and u s policy makers responded by imposing oil price regulation such events pose a fundamental problem of interpretation for studies that use stock prices to identify the economic effects of regulation what portion of the capital gains or losses experienced by investors in regulated firms is due to regulation and what portion is due to unanticipated economic events to answer these questions we use microeconomic theory to derive hypotheses about how the capital gains and losses created by opec pricing and u s regulatory policies are related to the underlying characteristics of petroleum firms we test the hypotheses by including a model of firm specific abnormal returns in the standard market models of common stock returns earned by investors in petroleum firms the results indicate the u s oil production and refiner access to price controlled crude oil were sources of capital gains and that u s and foreign refining were sources of capital losses

a test of the hotelling valuation principle time series tests of the hotelling r percent rule for natural resource prices have not been strongly supportive but the tests and the data are subject to serious difficulties we propose here an alternative testing strategy based on another but less widely known implication of the hotelling model we test this implication which we call the hotelling valuation principle by regressing the market values of the reserves of a sample of u s domestic oiland gas producing companies on their estimated hotelling values we find that the estimated hotelling values account for a significant portion of the observed variations in market values and that the hotelling measures are better indicators of the market values of petroleum properties than two widely cited publicly available alternative appraisals

information and exhaustible resources a bayesian analysis abstract we develop a continuous time bayesian model of investment in information about an exhaustible resource because of the way that information affects expectations the deterministic hotelling rule turns out to be more appropriate as a description of how resource owners forecast the value of their stocks than as a predictor of observed changes in the resource price a flow of information generates both unanticipated changes in expectations which cause the mean rate of change in the resource price to deviate systematically from the deterministic hotelling rule and reductions in uncertainty which do not affect the hotelling prediction

on the global economic potentials and marginal costs of non renewable resources and the price of energy commodities a model is presented in this work for simulating endogenously the evolution of the marginal costs of production of energy carriers from non renewable resources their consumption depletion pathways and timescales such marginal costs can be used to simulate the long term average price formation of energy commodities drawing on previous work where a global database of energy resource economic potentials was constructed this work uses cost distributions of non renewable resources in order to evaluate global flows of energy commodities a mathematical framework is given to calculate endogenous flows of energy resources given an exogenous commodity price path this framework can be used in reverse in order to calculate an endogenous marginal cost of production of energy carriers given an exogenous carrier demand using rigid price inelastic assumptions independent of the economy these two approaches generate limiting scenarios that depict extreme use of natural resources this is useful to characterise the current state and possible uses of remaining non renewable resources such as fossil fuels and natural uranium the theory is however designed for use within economic or technology models that allow technology substitutions in this work it is implemented in the global power sector model ftt power policy implications are given

a hotelling faustmann explanation of the structure of christmas tree prices we examine the relationship between a tree price and a tree age height using a hotelling faustmann type model of optimal plantation management which accounts for the possibility of replanting and biological growth the model predictions are tested using the data on christmas tree prices in north carolina collected in december 1997 the estimates show that in general the rates of change in prices between adjacent age cohorts reflect a competitive equilibrium in the capital market thus supporting the hotelling faustmann paradigm rigorous empirical testing of the basic economic models of optimal natural resource pricing has proven to be difficult the source of the difficulty has been the unavailability of micro level data on either prices or extraction harvest rates for in situ resource stocks 1 for nonrenewable resources hotelling s famous pricing rule has rarely been tested with firm level data stollery s study of the international nickel company of canada supported hotelling s rule and miller and upton s study of oil company values supported a corollary called the hotelling valuation principle most other studies such as halvorsen and smith and farrow have refuted this bedrock of natural resource economics in fact two studies of old growth timber essentially a nonrenewable resource provide some of the most compelling support for the hotelling model berck johnson

risk preferences are not time preferences risk and time are intertwined the present is known while the future is inherently risky this is problematic when studying time prefer ences since uncontrolled risk can generate apparently present biased behavior we systematically manipulate risk in an intertemporal choice experiment discounted expected utility performs well with risk but when certainty is added common ratio predictions fail sharply the data cannot be explained by prospect theory hyperbolic discounting or preferences for resolution of uncertainty but seem consistent with a direct preference for certainty the data suggest strongly a difference between risk and time preferences jel c91 d81 d91 understanding individual decision making under risk and over time are two foundations of economic analysis 1 in both areas there has been research to suggest that standard models of expected utility eu and exponential discounting are flawed or incomplete regarding time experimental research has uncovered evidence of a present bias or hyperbolic discounting frederick loewenstein and o donoghue 2002 regarding risk there are number of well documented departures from eu such as the allais 1953 common consequence and common ratio paradoxes an organizing principle behind expected utility violations is that they seem to arise as so called boundary effects where certainty and uncertainty are combined camerer 1992 harless and camerer 1994 and starmer 2000 indicate that violations of expected utility are notably less prevalent when all choices are uncertain this observation is especially interesting when considering decisions about risk taking over time in particular certainty and uncertainty are combined in intertemporal decisions the present is known and certain while the future is inherently risky this observation is problematic if one intends to study time preference in isolation from

economic indicators of resource scarcity comment abstract a recent article in this journal by richard norgaard j environ econom management 19 19 25 1990 concludes that the literature on economic indicators of resource scarcity is not a scientific endeavor we argue the contrary by surveying two research literatures omitted by norgaard but inspired by the resource indicators literature and by investigating norgaard s claim to have found a logical flaw we conclude that the research on economic indicators of resource scarcity is a scientific endeavor and that it is a distinguishing feature of the sub discipline of environmental and resource economics

on measuring natural resource scarcity conclusions concerning trends in natural resource scarcity may depend critically on the choice of scarcity index unfortunately the prevalence of vertical integration in natural resource industries has hindered the use of some otherwise desirable scarcity measures in this paper duality theory is used to derive an econometric procedure for estimating one such measure the shadow price of the resource in situ empirical results for the canadian metal mining industry indicate that resource scarcity as measured by this shadow price has decreased substantially over time