testing for asymmetric information in insurance markets the first goal of this paper is to provide a simple and general test of the presence of asymmetric information in contractual relationships within a competitive context we also argue that insurance data are particularly well suited to such empirical investigations to illustrate this claim we use data on contracts and accidents to investigate the extent of asymmetric information in the french market for automobile insurance using various parametric and nonparametric methods we find no evidence for the presence of asymmetric information in this market

estimating money demand functions the question of which functional forms of money demand regression equations are useful for empirical work is addressed here specifically it is argued that a functional form that focuses attention on the ability of the growth rate of nominal money to predict the inflation rate is a useful way of summarizing empirical evidence on the existence of a stable money demand function the results of estimating and simulating this functional form as well as standard functional forms are presented in the final part of this paper a typical equation expressing the public s demand for real money balances m is as follows

oil price shocks and their short and long term effects on the chinese economy a considerable body of economic literature shows the adverse economic impacts of oil price shocks for the developed economies however there has been a lack of empirical study of this kind on china and other developing countries this paper attempts to fill this gap by answering how and to what extent oil price shocks impact china s economy emphasizing on the price transmission mechanisms to that end we develop a structural vector auto regressive model our results show that an oil price increase negatively affects output and investment but positively affects inflation rate and interest rate however with the differentiated price control policies for materials and intermediates on the one hand and final products on the other hand in china the impact on real economy represented by real output and real investment lasts much longer than that to price monetary variables our decomposition results also show that the short term impact namely output decrease induced by the cut of capacity utilization rate is greater in the first one to two years but the portion of the long term impact defined as the impact realized through an investment change increases steadily and exceeds that of short term impact at the end of the second year afterwards the long term impact dominates and maintains for quite some time

cointegration structural breaks and the demand for money in bangladesh this article allows for endogenous structural breaks in the cointegration equation and investigates if there is a stable demand for money for bangladesh we have used the gregory and hansen framework and found that there was an intercept shift and a well determined and stable demand for money in bangladesh exists

learning and the time interdependence of costa rican exports abstract exports may enhance learning through production induced learning by doing learning to export by doing and flows of information from customers we provide evidence on the learning effects of export destination for costa rica for 1955 through 1980 we examine granger causality results and export trends to determine relationships between exports to the central american common market cacm the rest of the south and the north increasing exports to the cacm appear to promote learning in machinery leather and intermediate manufactures we also find that the cacm redirects some exports away from northern markets probably with damaging consequences

money income prices and interest rates including data from the 1980s sharply weakens the postwar time series evidence indicating significant relationships between money however defined and nominal income or between money and either real income or prices separately focusing on data from 1970 onward destroys this evidence altogether evidence indicating cointegration of real income and real money balances with due allowance for the effect of interest rates also deteriorates when the sample extends through the 1980s a positive finding is that the spread between the commercial paper rate and the treasury bill rate consistently contains highly significant information about future movements in real income copyright 1992 by american economic association

selection in insurance markets theory and empirics in pictures government intervention in insurance markets is ubiquitous and the theoretical basis for such intervention based on classic work from the 1970s has been the problem of adverse selection over the last decade empirical work on selection in insurance markets has gained considerable momentum this research finds that adverse selection exists in some insurance markets but not in others and it has uncovered examples of markets that exhibit advantageous selection a phenomenon not considered by the original theory and one that has different consequences for equilibrium insurance allocation and optimal public policy than the classical case of adverse selection advantageous selection arises when the individuals who are willing to pay the most for insurance are those who are the most risk averse and so have the lowest expected cost indeed it is natural to think that in many instances individuals who value insurance more may also take action to lower their expected costs drive more carefully invest in preventive health care and so on researchers have taken steps toward estimating the welfare consequences of detected selection and of potential public policy interventions in this essay we present a graphical framework for analyzing both theoretical and empirical work on selection in insurance markets this graphical approach provides both a useful and intuitive depiction of the basic theory of selection and its implications for welfare and public policy as well as a lens through which one can understand the ideas and limitations of existing empirical work on this topic

nonlinear monetary dynamics this article uses the correlation dimension technique along with the residual and shuffle tests to look for evidence of nonlinear dynamic structure in various weekly monetary aggregates their components the monetary base and the money multipliers the results support the barnett and chen 1988 and chen 1988 findings of nonlinearity in divisia m2 divisia m3 and simple sum m2 evidence of nonlinear structure is also found for simple sum m1 currency demand deposits all checkable deposits m3 minus m2 the monetary base and the multipliers of m1 m2 and m3

preference heterogeneity and insurance markets explaining a puzzle of insurance the textbook approach to insurance markets emphasizes the role of private information about risk in determining who purchases insurance in the classic adverse selection model of michael rothschild and joseph stiglitz 1976 individu als with higher expected claims buy more insur ance than those with lower expected claims who may be out of the market entirely this basic prediction of asymmetric information models of a positive correlation between insurance cov erage and accident occurrence has been shown to be robust to a variety of extensions to the stan

development trade and the environment which way now abstract in recent times environmental protection has emerged to occupy much of the center stage in discussions of economic development the fact that most if not all developing countries trade with each other has given the concept of environmental protection a distinctively international focus in this note i identify and discuss five of the most important themes in trade and the environment that are likely to impact developing countries in a significant manner in the future

the stability of m3 money demand and monetary growth targets the case of south africa the main purpose of this article is to determine whether money should continue to play an important role in the formulation of monetary policy in south africa even though the monetary policy framework has recently changed to an inflation targeting strategy money can continue to play an important role in the formulation of an efficient monetary policy strategy as long as there is a stable money demand function and money contains useful information about future price changes the paper presents empirical evidence of a constant and structurally stable m3 money demand function for south africa over the period 1968 97 the analysis further shows that the non constancies experienced during 1998 99 may only be temporary despite evidence of a stable m3 money demand function the results indicate that m3 money provides little information about future price changes in south africa and may therefore have lost its usefulness as a reliable indicator for monetary policy the money stock is endogenous with prices de

racial disparities in life insurance coverage we evaluate the extent to which there are racial disparities in life insurance coverage using multiple years of the survey of income and program participation between 2001 and 2010 we find that african americans hold significantly more life insurance after controlling for other factors especially employer sponsored and whole life insurance we demonstrate that our findings diverge from prior work because we examine all households instead of focusing exclusively on married and cohabitating households the findings on life insurance coverage and composition imply that earnings shocks due to mortality are not a contributing factor to racial disparities in wealth

modeling the demand for narrow money in the united kingdom and the united states abstract despite the importance of well specified empirical money demand functions for inference forecasting and policy problems in modeling have arisen concerning the economic theories of money demand the data institutional frameworks financial innovation and econometric implementation by developing constant data coherent m 1 demand equations for the u k and the u s we investigate these issues and explain such puzzles as missing money the great velocity decline and the recent explosion in m 1 the endogeneity of money the lucas critique and the non invertibility of our m 1 models are also discussed

is there adverse selection in life insurance markets adverse selection theory predicts people with a high risk of death are more likely to own life insurance using a unique data set merging administrative and survey records we test this theory and find the opposite people with high death risk are less likely to own life insurance we postulate advantageous selection and price discrimination swamp adverse selection in individual life insurance markets to determine which effect is more powerful we analyze group life insurance markets where insurance companies cannot price discriminate as well as in individual markets our data suggest that price discrimination has a stronger effect than advantageous selection jel d8 g1 i1

stability of the money demand function in asian developing countries previous studies that estimated the money demand function in asian developing countries either employed traditional estimation techniques or recently popularized cointegration technique while the first group suffers from spurious regression problems the second group interpreted their finding of cointegration as a sign of stability of estimated parameters this study after incorporating the cusum and cusumsq tests into cointegration analysis shows that in some asian countries even though real m1 or m2 monetary aggregates are cointegrated with their determinants the estimated parameters are unstable

the direction of trade past and present and the learning effects of exports to different directions abstract this paper looks at the direction of trade in manufacturer the pattern predicted by the hos model hasn r materialized but some sense of the historical pattern is made by looking at the distribution of world income as well as exporting countries policies and product composition given the historical pattern and in particular the direction of japan s trade it is argued that developing countries today are under exporting to one another this is to their detriment insofar as trade among less developed countries teends to be comprised of manufactures that are skill and learning intensive the scope for an increase in such trade is assessed

multiple dimensions of private information evidence from the long term care insurance market we demonstrate the existence of multiple dimensions of private information in the long term care insurance market two types of people purchase insurance individuals with private information that they are high risk and individuals with private information that they have strong taste for insurance ex post the former are higher risk than insurance companies expect while the latter are lower risk in aggregate those with more insurance are not higher risk our results demonstrate that insurance markets may suffer from asymmetric information even absent a positive correlation between insurance coverage and risk occurrence the results also suggest a general test for asymmetric information

dependents and the demand for life insurance a breadwinner s demand for life insurance depends on the demographic structure of his or her household the author captures the relationship by extending menahem e yaari s life insurance framework to include the preferences of all household members explicitly in many households the insured is the husband and the beneficiaries are his wife and offspring their demand for insurance of the husband s life is derived from a life cycle model in which income is uncertain the results are intuitively appealing in that they describe the explicit calculation made by purchasers of life insurance empirical estimates based on observed life insurance ownership also are encouraging copyright 1989 by american economic association

the demand for m1 in the u s a 1960 1988 estimated u s m1 demand functions appear unstable regularly breaking down over 1960 1988 e g missing money great velocity decline m1 explosion we propose a money demand function whose arguments include inflation real income long term bond yield and risk t bill interest rates and learning curve weighted yields on newly introduced instruments in m1 and non transactions m2 the model is estimated in dynamic error correction form it is constant and with an equation standard error of 0 4 variance dominates most previous models estimating alternative specifications explains earlier breakdowns showing the model s distinctive features to be important in accounting for the data

long run money demand revisited evidence from a non linear approach abstract in this paper we argue that employing the conventional linear cointegration approach in examining long run money demand may not be appropriate after taking into account the existence of transaction costs we provide evidence to show that deviations from equilibrium money demand follow an exponential smooth transition autoregressive process that is mean reverting outside a given range and has a unit root inside the range our findings also provide an alternative explanation for the failure of much of the existing literature to support a long run money demand function

long run income and interest elasticities of money demand in the united states econometric techniques designed to accommodate nonstationary data are used to reexamine the stability of interest and income elasticities of money demand in the united states estimates based on postwar monthly data reveal a stable relationship between m1 velocity and various measures of interest rates that proxy the opportunity cost of holding money balances tests for the existence of cointegration and methods used to estimate the income and interest elasticities are based on procedures prescribed by soren johansen 1988 corresponding error correction estimates offer insight as to the dynamics of the process that maintains the equilibrium relation between velocity and interest rates copyright 1991 by mit press

gstp tariff reduction and its effects on south south trade in manufactures using a gravity model with import tariffs on manufactures as an explanatory variable both at the import and at the export side the impact of tariffs on trade in manufactures is analyzed for a sample of 39 less developed country ldc importers the consequences of an agreement on a global system of trade preferences gstp for manufactures are estimated by lowering these tariffs for intra ldc trade by 20 and 50 alternatively the short term effects are found to be relatively modest and the long term effects considerably larger trade diversion from developed country dc to ldc suppliers has only limited impact

stability and non linear dynamics in the broad demand for money in spain in this article we estimate a money demand function for broad money in spain in the period 1978 1998 stability tests indicate the existence of a stable money demand function in the long but not in the short run using recent non linear techniques we find that such instabilities are caused by a non linear adjustment of real balances towards a stable long run equilibrium

the equilibrium relationship among money income prices and interest rates evidence from a threshold cointegration test the long run equilibrium relationship among money income prices and interest rates in japan is investigated by the threshold cointegration test which allows for asymmetric adjustment introduced by enders and siklos 2001 the threshold cointegration approach provides clear evidence of the cointegration relationship characterized by asymmetric adjustment by allowing for asymmetric adjustment results are obtained showing the stability of the money demand function similar to lucas 1988 who pointed out that the money demand function is stable if unit income elasticity is imposed in particular the estimated results show that the adjustment process toward equilibrium is highly persistent above an appropriately estimated threshold whereas the adjustment process toward equilibrium quickly converges below it this finding indicates that deviations from equilibrium resulting from increases in money or decreases in income and prices are highly persistent

asset returns with transactions costs and uninsured individual risk abstract we explore whether incorporating an explicit motive for holding liquid assets within an equilibrium asset pricing model helps explain the following features of asset returns and turnover in the post war u s economy i the low risk free real interest rate ii the large spread between returns on liquid assets and stocks and iii the greater transaction velocity of liquid assets relative to stocks we introduce a demand for liquid assets by adding uninsured individual risk together with differential costs of trading securities numerical simulations attempting to match the return data generate a ratio of liquid assets to income considerably below observed levels

the reincarnation of keynesian economics this paper discusses the reemergence of keynesian economics during the past decade it highlights the substantial differences between new keynesian economics and the convictions of early keynesians in particular it points out that new keynesians have adopted many views that were once considered monetarist or classical it concludes that the term keynesian may have outlived its usefulness this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

characterizing nonlinearities in business cycles using smooth transition autoregressive models during the past few years investigators have found evidence indicating that various time series representing business cycles such as production and unemployment may be nonlinear in this paper it is assumed that if the time series is nonlinear then it can be adequately described by a smooth transition autoregressive star model the paper describes the application of these models to quarterly logarithmic production indices for 13 countries and europe tests reject linearity for most of these series and estimated star models indicate that the nonlinearity is needed mainly to describe the responses of production to large negative shocks such as oil price shocks

adverse selection in insurance markets policyholder evidence from the u k annuity market in this paper we investigate the importance of adverse selection in insurance markets we use a unique data set consisting of all annuity policies sold by a large u k insurance company since the early 1980s to analyze mortality differences among individuals who purchased different types of policies we find systematic relationships between ex post mortality and annuity policy characteristics such as whether the annuity will make payments to the estate in the event of an untimely death and whether the payments from the annuity rise over time these mortality patterns are consistent with the presence of asymmetric information in the annuity market we find no evidence of substantive mortality differences however across annuities of different size even though models of insurance market equilibrium with asymmetric information would predict such differences we also find that the pricing of various features of annuity contracts is consistent with the self selection patterns we find in mortality rates our results therefore suggest that selection may occur across many specific features of insurance contracts and that the absence of selection on one contract dimension does not preclude its presence on others this highlights the importance of considering the detailed features of insurance contracts when testing theoretical models of asymmetric information

german monetary unification and the stability of the german m3 money demand function abstract this paper employs quarterly data from the whole of germany to test the stability of m3 demand for money the methodology is based on an application of the cusum and cusumsq in the context of error correction modeling and cointegration the results reveal some instability in m3 money demand function

bounds testing approach to analysis of the environment kuznets curve hypothesis abstract this paper examines the long run and the dynamic temporal relationships between economic growth energy consumption population density trade openness and carbon dioxide co 2 emissions in brazil china egypt japan mexico nigeria south korea and south africa based on the environment kuznets curve ekc hypothesis we employ the ardl bounds test to cointegration and cusum and cusumsq tests to ensure cointegration and parameter stability the estimated results show that the inverted u shaped ekc hypothesis holds in japan and south korea in the other six countries the long run relationship between economic growth and co 2 emissions follows an n shaped trajectory and the estimated turning points are much higher than the sample mean in addition the results indicate that energy consumption granger causes both co 2 emissions and economic growth in all the countries our results are consistent with previous studies that show that there is no unique relationship between energy consumption population density economic growth trade openness and the environment across countries

asymmetric responses of money demand to oil price shocks in saudi arabia a non linear ardl approach saudi arabia is an open oil based economy with fixed exchange rates therefore it has limited monetary policy autonomy using non linear autoregressive distributed lag approach this article inves

long run money demand in canada in search of stability the authors search for a long run cointegrating relationship among real money balances real income and interest rates extending the work of steve ambler and algin paquet 1990 who explore this issue in the canadian context employing the methods of robert f engle and clive w granger 1987 first they uncover parameter estimates of the cointegrated relationships using three different methods of estimation second the authors employ the hansen 1992 procedure to search for structural instability in cointegrating relationships with unknown break points they find empirical support for a stable cointegrating relationship among real m1 real income and short term interest rates in canada for the period 1953 1 1990 4 copyright 1996 by mit press

inflation uncertainty and labour market conditions in the us recent inflation dynamics in the united states us questioned the role of driving forces of inflation in the long run although the us recorded one of the longest economic recovery periods and the

an empirical examination of information barriers to trade in insurance this paper uses direct evidence to evaluate whether asymmetric information is a barrier to trade in the largest market for private insurance in the world life insurance we report several findings that seem difficult to reconcile with the conventional theory of insurance under asymmetric information we conjecture that sellers may know their costs of production better than consumers in this market as in those for most other products

demand for money in bangladesh a cointegration analysis the aim of this study is to estimate the demand for real broad m2 money in bangladesh using the most recently developed autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration analyses the empirical results show that there is a unique cointegrated and stable long run relationship among real per capita broad money demand real per capita income domestic interest rates and unofficial exchange rate um premiums which act as a surrogate for foreign interest rates with money as the dependent variable the results show that the income and interest elasticities are positive while the um premium elasticity is negative these results suggest that distortions in the financial and foreign exchange markets should be reduced in order to increase financial saving or monetary accumulation our results also reveal that the demand for money in bangladesh is stable despite the changes in financial and exchange rate policies between 1975 and 1995

trade patterns in developing countries 1964 82 this paper presents a regression analysis of import and export shares of gdp for 14 commodity and service categories in 55 developing countries over the period 1964 82 explanatory variables include gnp per capita population domestic capacity utilization the effective exchange rate and oecd real gnp for exports among other findings it is shown that countries trade patterns are not closely related to their growth performance and that developing countries on average run surpluses of exports over non capital goods imports on merchandise trade the current commodity surplus is required to offset imports of capital goods and a structural deficit on factor and non factor service trade

the role of commitment in dynamic contracts evidence from life insurance we use data on life insurance contracts to study the properties of long term contracts in a world where buyers cannot commit to a contract the data are especially suited to test a theory of dynamic contracting since they include information on the entire proele of future premiums all the patterns in the data et the theoretical predictions of a model with symmetric learning and one sided com

estimating the household consumption function in saudi arabia an error correction approach abstractwe estimate a micro founded life cycle consumption model for saudi arabia over the period 1970 2017 using error correction model procedures dynamic adjustments are significant and both in

breaks in money demand during the last twenty years beginning with the provocative paper by goldfeld 5 that revealed the case of the missing money the question of whether money demand the relationship between money income and an interest rate is stable has been intensively investigated using a variety of econometric techniques currently the most popular framework for examining the behavior of money demand is the cointegration framework in this framework the stationarity of money demand instead of the stability of money demand is evaluated earlier tests of the stability of money demand typically centered on whether the coefficient estimates were stable i e not subject to a structural break these tests did not consider the underlying time series aspects of the variables in money demand or the time series properties of their joint relationship prior to estimation as is now common given the seminal work of engle and granger 1 since then newer tests have focussed on the time series properties of the money demand variables and whether the joint relationship between the variables is stationary i e whether the variables are cointegrated engle and granger 1 and johansen and juselius 10 offer cointegration estimation procedures that have been applied by numerous researchers to the money incomeinterest rate relationship the pervasive finding is that money demand is non stationary see section ii below structural stability has not typically been a facet of investigation however the issues of stationarity and stability should not necessarily be treated independently failure to take account of structural change may bias the results in favor of non stationarity as shown in perron 16 1 history suggests that the economic environment and monetary institutions regulations and operating procedures have changed over time in the early 1970s the fixed exchange rate system collapsed when the gold exchange standard was abandoned and the u s dollar became a fiat currency during that same time the u s suffered an oil price shock that produced accelerating inflation and stagnant gdp growth an outcome that had never before been experienced in

the life insurance market asymmetric information revisited abstract this paper finds evidence for the presence of asymmetric information in the life insurance market a conclusion contrasting with the existing literature in particular we find a significant and positive correlation between the decision to purchase life insurance and subsequent mortality conditional on risk classification individuals who died within a 12 year time window after a base year were 19 more likely to have taken up life insurance in that base year than were those who survived the time window moreover as might be expected when individuals have residual private information we find that the earlier an individual died the more likely she was to have initially bought insurance the primary factor driving the difference between our and the prior literature s findings is that we focus on a sample of potential new buyers rather than on the entire cross section to address the sample selection problem induced by potential mortality differences between those with and those without coverage

the conduct of monetary policy nowadays the central bank of a country is the monopoly supplier of legal tender currency the commercial banks are committed to making their deposits convertible at par into such currency so the banks need to keep reserves in the form of currency and deposits at the central bank the central bank primarily conducts its policy by buying and selling financial securities e g treasury bills or foreign exchange in exchange for its own liabilities i e open market operations academic economists generally regard such operations as adjusting the quantitative volume of the banks reserve base and hence of the money stock with rates prices in such markets simultaneously determined by the interplay of demand and supply central bank practitioners almost always view themselves as unable to deny the banks the reserve base that the banking system requires and see themselves as setting the level of interest rates at which such reserve requirements are met with the quantity of money then simultaneously determined by the portfolio preferences of private sector banks and non banks this difference in perceptions is discussed again in section iii whether the monetary policy operations of central banks should be viewed primarily in terms of quantity or rate setting actions though of course one is the dual of the other these had allowed inflation and inflationary expectations to become entrenched by the end of the i970s a selection of representative statistics for a number of the leading industrialised countries is given in table i below this table indicates a common pattern among the countries of interaction between interest rates inflation and the growth of output the first period i969 78 is marked by high inflation negative real interest rates and slightly above average growth the second period i979 82 by very high nominal and high real interest rates high but falling inflation and very low output growth the final period i983 7 is marked by much lower inflation lower nominal but still high real interest rates and a recovery in output growth in some cases to above average rates in contrast the relationship in these countries between the growth of their chosen key monetary aggregate and nominal incomes appears much weaker also see clinton and chouraqui i987 especially p 7 whether measured in terms of monetary growth or in terms of real interest rates i e after adjustment for prospective future inflation policy during the

transactions costs and nonlinear adjustment in real exchange rates an empirical investigation eolquilibrium models of real exchange rate determination in the presence of transactions costs imply a nonlinear adjustment process toward purchasing power parity ppp conventional cointegration tests which ignore the effect of transactions costs may be biased against the long run ppp hypothesis our results using both monthly data for the interwar period and annual data spanning two centuries clearly reject the linear framework in favor of an exponential smooth transition autoregressive process the systematic pattern in the estimates of the nonlinear models provides strong evidence of mean reverting behavior for ppp deviations and helps explain the mixed results of previous studies

the demand for money in the united states evidence from cointegration tests this paper uses recent cointegration test procedures to investigate the underlying economic relationship between real money balances real income and interest rates for the united states unlike recent studies of money demand the authors analysis uses quarterly data spanning the period 1915 88 thus providing a sample encompassing a wide variety of economic experiences the evidence presented indicates that the broader m2 measure of money is the preferable measure with which to consider the long run effects of monetary policy copyright 1991 by ohio state university press

new developments in trade theory and ldcs abstract this paper surveys the new literature on international trade relevant to the north south controversy in the first part two types of north south models are considered the unequal exchange theory of lewis and emmanuel and the models of dynamic interaction of findlay taylor and others the analysis focuses on the determinants of growth the terms of trade and relative employment in the world economy in the second part the paper reviews the empirical literature on south north and south south trade and the theories of north south technological gaps intra industry trade and external economies finally we analyze the literature on exports and economic growth and the neo classical keynesian and disequilibrium approaches to the theory of import controls

demand for money in the selected oecd countries a time series panel data approach and structural breaks time series panel data estimation methods are used to estimate the cointegrating equations for the demand for money m1 for a panel of 11 organization for economic cooperation and development oecd countries for which consistent quarterly data are available the effects of financial reforms are analysed with structural break tests and estimates for alternative sub samples our results for the post reform sub samples show that the income elasticity of the demand for money has decreased and response to interest rate changes has increased

trade strategy in medium term adjustment abstract trade strategy is prominent in current discussions of stabilization and adjustment the orientation of trade strategy can be categorized according to revealed trade performance or characteristics of incentive structures or the nature of the main policy instruments the record of trade stratedy in developing countries has been richer and more complex than currently fashionable dichotomous categorizations in terms of inward or outward orientation suggest many trade strategy and policy issues remain unsettled these include the effects and optimal timing of import liberalization the appropriate instruments for export promotion trade policy concomitants of productivity change and interactions with microeconomic experience and policies among others more country specific and industry specific empirical research is necessary

estimating measurement error in annual job earnings a comparison of survey and administrative data we propose a new methodology that does not assume a prior specification of the statistical properties of the measurement errors and treats all sources as noisy measures of some underlying true value the unobservable true value can be represented as a weighted average of all available measures using weights that must be specified a priori unless there has been a truth audit the census bureau s survey of income and program participation sipp survey jobs are linked to social security administration earnings data creating two potential annual earnings observations the reliability statistics for both sources are quite similar except for cases where the sipp used imputations for some missing monthly earnings reports