representing the influence of multiple social interactions on monthly tourism participation behavior abstract based on japanese panel data derived from 12 monthly waves and 1253 questionnaires the study examines the impact of social interactions on tourism participation social interactions are classified into three types namely endogenous exogenous and correlated effects it is empirically confirmed that endogenous social effects have significant influences on tourism participation behavior for example it is found that interactions with people of the same income groups an example of endogenous social effects are generally significant across most months of the year however it is worth noting that endogenous social effects will be overestimated if the correlated social effect is not taken into account the results suggest that social multiplier effects can be discerned that have potential implications for promotion and management of tourism participation rates

theoretical and empirical advantages of truncated count data estimators for analysis of deer hunting in california truncated poisson and truncated negative binomial count data models as well as standard count data models ols nonlinear normal and truncated nonlinear normal mle were used to estimate demand for deer hunting in california the truncated count data estimators and their properties are reviewed a large sample n 2223 allowed random segmenting of the data into specification estimation and out of sample prediction portions statistics of interest are therefore unbiased by the specification search and the prediction results allow comparison of the statistical models robustness the new estimators are found to be more appropriate for estimating and predicting demand and social benefits than the alternative estimators based on a variety of criteria

learning about a new technology pineapple in ghana this paper investigates the role of social learning in the diffusion of a new agri cultural technology in ghana we use unique data on farmers communication patterns to define each individual s information neighborhood conditional on many potentially confounding variables we find evidence that farmers adjust their inputs to align with those of their information neighbors who were surpris ingly successful in previous periods the relationship of these input adjustments to experience further indicates the presence of social learning in addition applying the same method to input choices for another crop of known technol ogy correctly indicates an absence of social learning effects jel d83 013 033 q16

joint recreation choices and implied values of time a model of joint recreation quantity choices is developed individuals choose both total time spent at distant sites and the number of trips taken implicitly choosing average on site time the model permits nonzero marginal utility of travel makes on site time endogenous and is linear in the constraints the scarcity value of time is analyzed without assuming the marginal utility of work time is zero a partially testable assumption about relative marginal values of travel and on site time yields nonparametric calculations of the scarcity value of time and marginal values of trips and days on site from people s observed optimal quantity choices

marginal rate of transformation and rate of substitution measured by dea environmental assessment comparison among european and north american nations this study discusses the new use of dea data envelopment analysis environmental assessment to measure mrt marginal rate of transformation and rs rate of substitution among production factors e g inputs desirable and undesirable outputs to measure the degree on mrt and rs this study first examines a concept of disposability from the perspective of economic strategies to combat various environmental issues the strategies are extendable to a policy change for pollution prevention the underlying concept is separated into natural and managerial disposability under managerial disposability it is possible for us to measure an occurrence of desirable congestion or eco technology innovation considering the disposability concept this study discusses how to measure the type and magnitude of mrt and rs a problem of the mrt rs measurement is that these measures usually become unstable e g very large or small in these magnitudes because dea does not assume any functional form for economic activities to overcome such a difficulty this study equips dea environmental assessment with multiplier restriction by utilizing a unique feature on a proposed data treatment the multiplier restriction in dea has been never explored in previous works on environmental assessment in an application this study finds three important economic concerns on europe and north america first western europe outperforms eastern europe and north america in their unified efficiency measures under managerial disposability this study statistically confirms a difference between western and eastern europe but not between western europe and north america this result exhibits that eastern europe is not yet well developed at the level of the other two regions second eastern europe has exhibited mrt estimates that are different from western europe and north america the nations in eastern europe have an economic potential for industrial developments because the level of their industrial pollutions is less than that of the other two regions the potential is also found in their mrt estimates finally an interesting difference can be found in the rs estimate between eastern europe and western europe from 2008 to 2012 they have statistically exhibited a difference between the two regimes but not with north america this is because most nations in both western europe and north america have already attained a high level of economic successes so that they have a limited industrial potential under current production technology and eco technology the situation of the two regions will be changed along with new technology development in contrast eastern europe is different from the other two regions in terms of attaining such a level of social sustainability because of limited capital accumulation and limited opportunity for technology innovation

modeling regional economic dynamics spatial dependence spatial heterogeneity and nonlinearities abstract spatial modeling of economic phenomena requires the adoption of complex econometric tools which allow us to deal with important methodological issues such as spatial dependence spatial unobserved heterogeneity and nonlinearities in this paper we describe some recently developed econometric approaches i e spatial autoregressive semiparametric geoadditive models which address the three issues simultaneously we also illustrate the relative performance of these methods with an application to the case of house prices in the lucas county

demand for rural tourism the effects of quality and information the development of rural tourism is regarded as a promising diversification strategy especially for lagging and mountainous areas of the european union research concerning the demand and or supply of rural tourism services has been limited within the agricultural economics domain despite the significance attached to rural tourism by various rural development policy measures and initiatives the article examines the expenditure behavior of rural tourists within a framework of demand for composite heterogeneous goods the proposed framework captures the quality of the tourism experience as the commodity s unit value a quantifiable economic variable examines its effects on expenditures and allows for the estimation of elasticity in prices regarding expenditure and quantity empirical analysis is facilitated by a survey recording the expenditure behavior of 465 tourists in two rural and lagging areas of greece the quality of the tourism experience is significantly and positively affected by the income the source from which information about the trip is retrieved internet newspapers as well as general press and special travel press and by the amount of information sought by the consumer prior to the trip in turn the quality of the tourism experience is the major endogenous factor that positively influences expenditures for rural tourism further research is needed before evidence provided in this work can be used to draw policy conclusions and recommendations

endogenous on site time in the recreation demand model careful modeling of on site time may substantially improve estimates of the bene fits of recreational visits using the travel cost method especially when on site time is endoge nous this paper reviews the theory of endoge nous on site time and shows how the theory may apply to the random utility model rum an empirical example of a two level nested choice model of sport fishing in southcentral alaska il lustrates a discussion of the relative advantages of the different ways to specify endogenous on site time jel q26

demographic change tourism expenditure and life cycle behaviour abstract the paper explores how demographic changes in human populations may impact on tourism decision making of households over their life cycle by means of hurdle models the study focuses respectively on the decision to travel domestically or abroad and investigates if statistically significant differences exist as to the impact of age and cohort on the decision to travel and tourism expenditure using a vast dataset on italian household expenditures over the period 1997 2007 the empirical results show that demographic aspects do have a strong effect on the tourism behaviour of families and that cohort and age effects act differently on the decision of households to make a trip and on how much they spend on tourism age has a negative effect on the desire to travel but a positive effect on tourism expenditure on the other hand older cohorts are inclined to travel but they have a low propensity to spend on tourism relevant differences in income elasticity along the life cycle of households have also been found finally age and cohort aspects have a different effect on the decision as to whether to travel nationally or internationally

habit formation interdependent preferences and demographic effects in the almost ideal demand system the authors model myopic habit formation interdependence of preferences among consumers and demographic effects as taste shifters in a micro consumer demand model of the almost ideal demand variety the model is estimated for dutch micro data the authors investigate the dynamic properties of the model and find that it behaves very differently from models without interdependence of preferences the implications for micro macro modeling are discussed copyright 1991 by royal economic society

possibilities for including the opportunity cost of time in recreation demand systems recreation demand modelers have attempted to identify and incorporate the opportunity cost of an individual s time in travel and on site in the model larson 1993b focused on the value of leisure time in a model where individuals face a fixed work week in this paper we examine the connection between labor supply and recreation demands and focus on conditional demand systems we illustrate that corner solution models are not needed to explain several interesting time related recreation issues

determinants of pension plan fees in spain pension plans and funds represent a substantial part of the welfare systems in both europe and spain one of the most important factors in the choice of a plan or fund is the performance it obtains in view of the influence that fees have on performance the objective of this study is to analyse the variables that determine the management and custodial fees of individual pension plans the spanish market for pension plans and funds sets legal caps on these fees and at the same time the majority of them are commercialized and managed by financial institutions which can in turn generate a conflict of interests in this article we estimate models with censured variables and our findings show how the average investment per plan the legal status and the size of the management company to which the plan belongs and the style of the plan are all relevant determinants of the management fee in turn the custodial fee is determined by the legal status of the custodial company the size the return and the type

determinants of individual tourist expenditure as a network empirical findings from uruguay abstract this paper introduces the use of graphical models for assessing the determinants of individual tourist spending these models have the advantage of synthesizing and visualizing the relationships occurring within large sets of random variables through an easy to interpret output to this end individual data from a large official survey of international tourists in uruguay are used symmetric conditional independence structures are first investigated then subgraphs of each expenditure item s neighbourhood are extracted in order to assess the impact of main effects and interactions through proportional ordinal logistic regression results highlight the marginal role of socio demographic variables and direct importance of accommodation type destination and length of stay

the takeover deterrent effect of open market share repurchases this paper examines whether open market share repurchases deter takeovers we model pre repurchase takeover probability as a latent variable and examine its impact on the firm s decision to repurchase shares given specification tests reject the tobit model we turn to the censored quantile regression method of powell 1986 journal of econometrics 32 143 155 we find a significantly positive relation between open market share repurchases and takeover probability and we reconcile empirical findings in previous studies that contradict predictions repurchase activity is inversely related to firm size consistent with smaller firms having greater information asymmetry and is related to temporary but not permanent cash flows

bayesian analysis of the two part model with endogeneity application to health care expenditure this paper studies the effect of managed care on medical expenditure using a model in which the insurance status is assumed to be endogenous insurance plan choice is modeled through the multinomial probit model the medical expenditure variable the outcome of interest has a significant proportion of zeros that are handled using the two part model extended to handle endogenous insurance the estimation approach is bayesian based on the gibbs sampler the model is applied to a sample of 20 460 individuals obtained from the medical expenditure panel survey the results provide substantial evidence of selectivity copyright 2006 john wiley sons ltd

the economic consequences of health shocks evidence from vietnam this paper finds that the incomes of urban households are more vulnerable to health shocks than rural households that health shocks may precipitate increases in unearned income that partially offset reductions in earned income and large increases in medical spending even among insured households it also finds that households spend less on food following a health shock but more on budget items such as housing and electricity measures of household health shocks used include a recent death of a working age household member a long inpatient spell and a recent sizeable drop in the body mass index of the household head

energy trade efficiency and its determinants a malmquist index approach abstract this paper adopts the malmquist index approach to investigate multi product energy trade efficiency and its determinants from an empirical perspective using trade statistics of coal oil and gas of 40 countries over the period of 1995 to 2008 we found that the efficiency of bilateral energy trade ranged between 0 26 and 0 35 when imperfect substitution between different energy products is taken into account this measure is significantly lower than those obtained from traditional gravity models it suggests that the ability of cross product substitution affects trade efficiency improvement which results from regional market integration and related trade policy the results provide useful insights on predicting the pattern of future energy trade and hence have important implications for relevant countries to prioritize product specific trade policies

the impact of changes in household vacation expenditures on the travel and hospitality industries two large tourism industries travel and hospitality are strongly affected by changes in household demand for vacations in recent years rising income and declining prices per unit of quality have led to changes in patterns of household vacation consumption to understand the impact of these changes on the travel and hospitality industries we develop a theoretical model distinguishing between travel and on site expenditures and apply it to israeli data we find that under certain circumstances the changes in income and prices are responsible for a shift toward multiple short vacations this trend can be a boon to the travel industry but a disadvantage for the hospitality industry both industries are expected to face a rise in the demand for high quality products

modelling r d expenditure data with zero observations two equation model this article attempts to analyse the determinants of firms research and development r d expenditures in korea by considering the business environment after the economic crisis in 1997 in addition to take into account zero r d expenditure this article employed a two equation model unlike models used in other studies this method incorporates a two level decision structure the participation decision and the decision on the amount to spend once the issue of participation has been decided according to the estimation results while the proposition that larger firms are more active in r d is true the proposition that firms that possess market power are more active in r d is not true for korea technical cooperation among korean firms seems to be less active than in other countries in addition the results indicate that foreign investment stimulates the firms r d expenditure furthermore a number of factors were found to play a role in promoting firms r d activities the external conditions of the f

the determinants of household vacation travel some empirical evidence 1981 the determinants of household vacation travel some empirical evidence applied economics vol 13 no 2 pp 225 234

consumer choice and competition policy a study of uk energy markets consumer choice is increasingly recognised as a crucial factor in competition policy to illustrate the implications of such choice we present an investment model of the switching choice in the uk residential natural gas market and examine responses to a specially commissioned survey of nearly seven hundred consumers identifying search and switching costs through an assessment of the savings which consumers say they require to switch supplier together with an evaluation of consumer switching behaviour we deduce that the incumbent retained considerable market power suggesting that some continued regulation may be necessary

informal groups and health insurance take up evidence from a field experiment summary this paper presents the results of 20 randomized experiments aimed at understanding the low take up of in patient health insurance observed in developing countries take up does not increase when participants receive information about the product or an assistance to register or small subsidies of 2 10 or 30 take up does not increase when the same information is provided by local respected community leaders when participants are offered an in kind gift a chicken if they register when participants are offered the possibility to contribute lower and more frequent payments or the possibility to pay by cellphone a full subsidy generates a mere 45 take up with no retention after one year in contrast to these low take up rates presenting the same information without any subsidies to existing informal groups raises take up to 12 still 7 after one year as well as trust and knowledge of the product social networks play a major role in the adoption of health insurance this paper provides a cost effective way to increase take up of health insurance while subsidies are found to be largely ineffective at raising take up in the long run

effects of budgetary constraints on international tourism expenditures abstract this paper implements a logistic transition regression model to examine the relationships between gdp per capita and international tourism expenditures across countries in 2001 2010 by types of savings regimes while studies have focused on the effect of income on international tourism expenditures none consider the nonlinear smooth transition status of savings and its impacts on discretionary spending and hence expenditure on tourism the impact of income on tourism expenditures can vary under different savings regimes the results show that in a low savings regime the effect of an increase in the gdp per capita on international tourism expenditures is more pronounced in a high savings regime there is strong motivation for precautionary savings and tourism is considered a luxury therefore such spending is crowded out by an increase in savings as gdp per capita increases although international tourism expenditures also increase with gdp per capita they do so at a slower rate these findings establish an accurate understanding of the effects of savings on international tourism expenditures

a fractionally integrated autoregressive moving average approach to forecasting tourism demand the primary aim of this paper is to incorporate fractionally integrated arma p d q arfima models into tourism forecasting and to compare the accuracy of forecasts with those obtained by previous studies the models are estimated using the volume of monthly international tourist arrivals in singapore empirical findings demonstrate the evidence that the approach we propose generates relatively lower sample mean absolute percentage errors mapes this study also deals with the volatile data faced by a forecaster we use the asian financial crisis and the september 11 event as examples of economic and political shocks with respect to the objective of shaving the coefficient mape forecasts based on the selected arfima models dominate convincingly

income and the substitution pattern between domestic and international tourism demand this article analyses the role of income in the decision of participating in the tourism demand within 1 year the tourists who are participating can travel to domestic destinations only abroad destinations only or to both of them such a substitution pattern is modelled using a bivariate probit model the analysis is carried out to the regional level using a survey conducted in 15 european eu 15 countries in addition to the traditional socioeconomic variables the analysis adds new variables to the outbound tourism demand modelling such as the attributes of the place of residence the results show that tourism demand is income elastic however there are marked differences in the income elasticities of the probabilities of travelling domestically or abroad above certain income threshold the substitution pattern between destinations takes part the probability of travelling domestically only remains constant whereas the probability of travelling abroad keeps growing additionally the article prov

a bivariate count data model for household tourism demand households choice of the number of leisure trips and the total number of overnight stays is empirically studied using swedish tourism data a bivariate hurdle approach separating the participation to travel and stay the night or not from the quantity the number of trips and nights decision is employed the quantity decision is modelled with a bivariate mixed poisson lognormal model allowing for both positive as well as negative correlation between count variables the observed endogenous variables are drawn from a truncated density and estimation is pursued by simulated maximum likelihood the estimation results indicate a negative correlation between the number of trips and nights in most cases own price effects are as expected negative while estimates of cross price effects vary between samples copyright 2005 john wiley sons ltd

endogenous peer effects local aggregate or local average a b s t r a c t we develop a unified model embedding different behavioral mechanisms of social interac tions and design a statistical model selection test to differentiate between them in empirical applications this framework is applied to study peer effects in education effort in study ing and sport activities for adolescents in the united states we find that for education students tend to conform to the social norm of their friends while for sport activities both the social multiplier and the social norm effect matter

fifty years of methodological trends in jibs why future ib research needs more triangulation we analyze methodological trends in empirical research in jibs from 1970 2019 our results point to the prevalence of the following patterns there has been an increase in the use of 1 large scale longitudinal cross national datasets 2 complex analytical techniques including the incorporation of multiple analytical techniques within the same study but 3 a decline in the diversity of methods in use we relate these trends to the underlying social technical and communicative conventions in the journal during the 50 year period the observed patterns are consistent with theory that posits scientific fields entrench a dominant paradigm over time resulting in a restricted set of methodological options being selected such restrictions jeopardize the quality of research because the study of any phenomenon requires the use of multiple methodological procedures to avoid the systematic biases errors omissions and limitations introduced by any single option therefore we propose the use of triangulation as a strategy for building methodological alternatives into research designs institutionalization of this principle in the field of international business has the potential to enhance both the rigor and scope of inquiry of future research

holiday taking and income this paper is the first attempt to estimate the determinants of holiday taking across several countries to accomplish this a two stage estimation procedure is employed which enables incongruous income categories to be transformed into a single income variable it is found that in the mid 1980s there was a substantial similarity in the holiday taking behaviour of europeans the large national differences in holiday participation are explained by differences in income and demographic factors a remarkable regularity in the responsiveness of the probability of holiday taking to marginal changes in income is found

social ties within school classes the roles of gender ethnicity and having older siblings in this paper we identify the lines along which social ties between high school teenagers are primarily formed to this end we introduce interaction weights between pupils in the same school class that are a function of exogenous individual background characteristics such as gender ethnicity and having older siblings the resulting model with endogenous interactions and school specific fixed effects is estimated using data from the dutch national school youth survey nsys a survey in which in principle all pupils in a sampled class are interviewed by combining the 1992 1996 1999 and 2001 nsys data we are able to identify trends in social relationships of teenagers we find that the roles that gender and ethnicity play in how teenagers interact varies strongly across different types of behaviour for example going out shows strong within ethnicity interactions while expenditures on cell phones and on clothing exhibit mainly between girls interactions having older siblings has a minor effect on within school class social interactions there is weak evidence of decreased ethnic segregation within school classes during the decade considered

payoff complementarities and financial fragility evidence from mutual fund outflows the paper provides empirical evidence that strategic complementarities among investors generate fragility in financial markets analyzing mutual fund data we find that consistent with a theoretical model funds with illiquid assets where complementarities are stronger exhibit stronger sensitivity of outflows to bad past performance than funds with liquid assets we also find that this pattern disappears in funds where the shareholder base is composed mostly of large investors we present further evidence that these results are not attributable to alternative explanations based on the informativeness of past performance or on clientele effects we analyze the implications for funds performance and policies

school attendance and child labor a model of collective behavior this paper theoretically investigates how community approval or disap proval aects school attendance and child labor and how aggregate behavior of the community feeds back towards the formation and persistence of an anti or pro schooling norm the proposed community model continues to take aggregate and idiosyncratic poverty into account as an important driver of low school attendance and child labor but it provides also an explanation for why equally poor villages or regions can display dierent attitudes towards schooling distinguishing between three dierent modes of child time allocation school attendance work and leisure the paper shows how the time costs of schooling and child labor productivity con tribute to the existence of a locally stable anti schooling norm it proposes policies that eectively exploit the social dynamics and initiate a permanent escape from the anti schooling equilibrium an extension of the model explores how an education contingent subsidy paid to the poorest families of a community manages to initiate a bandwagon eect towards education for all the optimal mechanism design of

latent homophily or social influence an empirical analysis of purchase within a social network consumers who are close to one another in a social network often make similar purchase decisions this similarity can result from latent homophily or social influence as well as common exogenous factors latent homophily means consumers who are connected to one another are likely to have similar characteristics and product preferences social influence refers to the ability of one consumer to directly influence another consumer s decision based upon their communication we present an empirical study of purchases of caller ring back tones using data from an asian mobile network that predicts consumers purchase timing and choice decisions we simultaneously measure latent homophily and social influence while also accounting for exogenous factors identification is achieved due to our dynamic panel data structure and the availability of detailed communication data we find strong influence effects and latent homophily effects in both the purchase timing and product choice decisions of consumers this paper was accepted by sandra slaughter information systems

an econometric study of tourist arrivals in aruba and its implications abstract the principal purpose of this study is to analyze econometric estimates in order to explain tourist arrivals to aruba from the united states the netherlands and venezuela the study specified a dynamic econometric model for modeling short term as well as the long term responses it estimated both linear and log linear functions and it applied the box cox statistical method to determine the appropriate functional form the inclusion of venezuela as a developing country permitted the comparison of the behavior of tourism demand in relatively rich and poor countries the results indicated the extent to which cross country behavior of demand differs with respect to changes in effective prices and exchange rates this study can assist in the formulation of future macroeconomic policies as well as market and pricing strategies in a small or microstate economy

understanding tourists economizing strategies during the global economic crisis abstract this paper explores how tourists from 165 regions of eu 27 countries cut back their tourism expenditure during the global economic crisis in 2009 cutbacks in tourism expenditure are divided into two mutually related decisions firstly whether or not the tourists decided to cut back on tourism expenditure because of the crisis and second which of six options they employed as their cut back strategy fewer holidays reduced length of stay cheaper means of transport cheaper accommodation travel closer to home or change the period of travel the econometric model used to address these kinds of simultaneous decisions is an adaptation of the heckman model within a generalized structural equations modelling approach this methodology controls for sample selection bias and correlations between equations this paper highlights patterns in cutback decisions that are associated with the socioeconomic characteristics of the household and the climate in the country of origin

social learning and peer effects in consumption evidence from movie sales using box office data for all movies released between 1982 and 2000 i quantify how much the consumption decisions of individuals depend on information they receive from their peers when quality is ex ante uncertain in the presence of social learning we should see different box office sales dynamics depending on whether opening weekend demand is higher or lower than expected i use a unique feature of the movie industry to identify ex ante demand expectations the number of screens dedicated to a movie in its opening weekend reflects the sales expectations held by profit maximizing theatre owners several pieces of evidence are consistent with social learning first sales of movies with positive surprise and negative surprise in opening weekend demand diverge over time if a movie has better than expected appeal and therefore experiences larger than expected sales in week 1 consumers in week 2 update upward their expectations of quality further increasing week 2 sales second this divergence is small for movies for which consumers have strong priors and large for movies for which consumers have weak priors third the effect of a surprise is stronger for audiences with large social networks finally consumers do not respond to surprises in first week sales that are orthogonal to movie quality like weather shocks overall social learning appears to be an important determinant of sales in the movie industry accounting for 32 of sales for the typical movie with positive surprise this implies the existence of a large social multiplier such that the elasticity of aggregate demand to movie quality is larger than the elasticity of individual demand

methodological comparison among radial non radial and intermediate approaches for dea environmental assessment abstract this study compares three dea approaches for environmental assessment all of which are designed to examine the level of simultaneous achievement on economic prosperity and environmental protection so measuring the degree of sustainability development dea standing for data envelopment analysis has been widely applied for performance assessment in the past five decades a new type of applications is referred to as dea environmental assessment and it measures the performance of many organizations that utilize inputs to produce not only desirable outputs e g electricity but also undesirable outputs e g co 2 in the previous studies dea based performance evaluation for environment assessment is methodologically classified into radial or non radial category recently a new intermediate approach analytically locating between the radial and non radial measures has been proposed as the third alternative a use of the intermediate approach has several unique features all of which cannot be found in the radial and non radial ones the new approach measures the degree of unified inefficiency on each production factor and determines the level of total unified inefficiency from the average of the sum of these inefficiency scores this study discusses the analytical features by comparing the intermediate approach with the radial and non radial ones the methodological comparison attempts to convey a message that dea is indeed an important methodology but not perfect rather it is an approximation approach to examine the performance of various organizations many dea applications on energy and environment often suffer from a methodological bias implying that different approaches produce different empirical results thus in guiding a large policy issue such as the global warming and climate change it is necessary for us to compare several different approaches e g models and concepts to derive a reliable empirical suggestion the importance of such a message is applicable to not only dea but also the other types of empirical research in natural and social sciences therefore this study discusses the methodological bias issue from the practicality of the three dea approaches in assessing various concerns on energy and environment

on site time in the demand for recreation the standard travel cost model has treated on site time ambiguously over the years this paper shows how to handle on site time by exploring the implications of two assumptions in the travel cost model first people choose the amount of time that they spend on a site and second the time spent on site is exogenous this paper uses a duality result to show that when on site time is chosen the standard travel cost demand function takes a particularly simple form with slight modification standard estimation and welfare calculations continue to hold

tourism participation and expenditure by spanish households the effects of the economic crisis and unemployment abstract this paper examines household tourism participation decisions and tourism expenditure across the business cycle microdata is used from the spanish household budget survey for the years 2006 2010 facilitating an analysis of the consequences of the economic crisis and unemployment on tourism consumption decisions by households by estimating a heckman model the effects of households socioeconomic determinants on participation and expenditure decisions can be identified taking the year 2008 the beginning of the crisis as a reference the stability of the tourism expenditure model is tested identifying variables whose effects alter in times of crisis one important aspect of the study is how household unemployment affects tourism participation and expenditure decisions the effect of unemployment takes into account whether it is the main breadwinner his or her spouse or another member of the household who is unemployed concentrating on those households whose main breadwinner was employed at the time an analysis is also made of how job insecurity affects tourism consumption decisions from the results the unemployment variables can be seen to have a significant explanatory power suggesting that unemployment information does help to explain the evolution of tourism expenditure across the business cycle

clean evidence on peer effects we study subjects who were asked to fill letters into envelopes with a remuneration independent of output in the pair treatment two subjects worked at the same time in the same room and peer effects were possible in the single treatment subjects worked alone and peer effects were ruled out we find evidence of peer effects in the pair treatment because the standard deviations of output are smaller within pairs than between pairs moreover average output is higher in the pair treatment thus peer effects raise productivity finally low productivity workers are the most sensitive to the behavior of peers

ethnic capital and intergenerational mobility this paper analyzes the extent to which ethnic skill differentials are transmitted across generations i assume that ethnicity acts as an externality in the human capital accumulation process the skills of the next generation depend on parental inputs and on the quality of the ethnic environment in which parents make their investments or ethnic capital the empirical evidence reveals that the skills of today s generation depend not only on the skills of their parents but also on the average skills of the ethnic group in the parent s generation

the role of information and social interactions in retirement plan decisions evidence from a randomized experiment this paper analyzes a randomized experiment to shed light on the role of information and social interactions in employees decisions to enroll in a tax deferred account tda retirement plan within a large university the experiment encouraged a random sample of employees in a subset of departments to attend a benee ts information fair organized by the university by promising a monetary reward for attendance the experiment multiplied by more than e ve the attendance rate of these treated individuals relative to controls and tripled that of untreated individuals within departments where some individuals were treated tda enrollment e ve and eleven months after the fair was signie cantly higher in departments where some individuals were treated than in departments where nobody was treated however the effect on tda enrollment is almost as large for individuals in treated departments who did not receive the encouragement as for those who did we provide three interpretations differential treatment effects social network effects and motivational reward effects to account for these results

an analysis of households appraisal of their budget constraints for potential participation in tourism abstract this paper examines the importance of households budget constraints as a barrier to participation in tourism for this purpose a sample of spanish households drawn from the european community household panel was analysed this survey gathers data on the economic and socio demographic situation of all adult household members more specifically it includes a question on each household s capacity to afford a week s yearly holiday the aim of this question is to assess whether households have sufficient financial resources to participate in tourism the results of the analysis demonstrate that budget constraints on tourist travel are binding for a significant percentage of spanish households the results also show that this type of constraint is not only conditioned by the level of income but by a more complex appraisal that also includes other financial variables such as households saving capacity or the unemployment status of its members furthermore non financial variables such as the level of education age and barriers associated with poor health status all help to determine the degree of importance with which households perceive their budget constraints

participation and investment decisions in a retirement plan the influence of colleagues choices abstract this paper investigates whether peer effects play an important role in retirement savings decisions we use individual data from employees of a large university to study whether individual decisions to enroll in a tax deferred account plan sponsored by the university and the choice of the mutual fund vendor for people who choose to enroll are affected by the decisions of other employees in the same department to overcome the identification problems we divide the departments into sub groups along gender status age and tenure lines and we instrument the average participation of each peer group by the salary or tenure structure in this group our results suggest that peer effects may be an important determinant of savings decisions

determinants of vacation travel among israeli seniors theory and evidence this study investigates determinants of vacation travel among seniors a consumer choice model is developed that incorporates effects of retirement and health on available leisure time and effects of age and education on disposable income the empirical implications of the model depend on leisure and income patterns that in turn determine if time and budget constraints are binding the model is illustrated using data collected from israeli seniors results confirm theoretical predictions regarding the changing effectiveness of constraints as seniors grow older

something to talk about social spillovers in movie consumption we exploit the randomness of weather and the relationship between weather and moviegoing to quantify social spillovers in movie consumption instrumenting for early viewership with plausibly exogenous weather shocks captured in lasso chosen instruments we find that shocks to opening weekend viewership are doubled over the following five weekends our estimated momentum arises almost exclusively at the local level and we find no evidence that it varies with either ex post movie quality or the precision of ex ante information about movie quality suggesting that the observed momentum is driven in part by a preference for shared experience and not only by social learning

ranking the international business journals this study seeks to assess and rank the relative quality of 30 international business journals using both a citation analysis and a survey approach journal rankings are presented using both approaches in addition to a composite ranking the rankings provide an objective analysis of journal quality for tenure and promotion committees for ib researchers considering journal submission options and provide the academic community with a better understanding of which international business publication outlets are the most influential in guiding research in this discipline

forecasting tourism demand with arma based methods abstract the forecast of tourism volume in the form of arrivals is of special importance for tourism and other hospitality industries because it is an indicator of future demand thereby providing basic information for subsequent planning and policy making in this paper three univariate arma based models are applied to tourism demand as represented by the number of world wide visitors to hong kong japan korea taiwan singapore thailand the philippines australia and new zealand the study employs both monthly and quarterly time series generated from nine principal tourist destinations in asian pacific region in the forecasting exercise to ensure the reliability of the forecasting evaluation forecasting performance based on disaggregated arrival series in a particular destination is examined as well the general impression is that the arma based models perform very well and in some cases the magnitude of mean absolute percentage error is lower than 2 level

a discrete choice model with social interactions with an application to high school teen behavior we develop an empirical discrete choice interaction model with a finite number of agents we characterize its equilibrium properties in particular the correspondence between interaction strength number of agents and the set of equilibria and propose to estimate the model by means of simulation methods in an empirical application we analyze the individual behavior of high school teenagers in almost 500 school classes from 70 schools in our baseline model endogenous social interaction effects are strong for behavior closely related to school truancy somewhat weaker for behavior partly related to school smoking cell phone ownership and moped ownership and absent for behavior far away from school asking parents permission for purchases intra gender interactions are generally much stronger than cross gender interactions in a model with school specific fixed effects social interaction effects are insignificant with the exception of intra gender interactions for truancy copyright c 2007 john wiley sons ltd

dealing with bottled water expenditures data with zero observations a semiparametric specification abstract this paper analyzes bottled water expenditures data with zero observations by employing parametric and semiparametric models the overall results of specification tests indicate that the semiparametric model outperforms the parametric model significantly

the social multiplier aggregate data is often used to make inferences about individual level behavior if there are social interactions in which one person s actions influence his neighbor s incentives or information then these inferences are inappropriate the presence of positive social interactions or strategic complementarities implies the existence of a social multiplier where aggregate relationships will overstate individual elasticities we present a brief model and then estimate the size of the social multiplier in three areas the impact of education on wages the impact of demographics on crime and group membership among dartmouth roommates in these contexts there is a significant social multiplier jel ho jo co

identification of endogenous social effects the reflection problem this paper examines the reflection problem that arises when a researcher observing the distribution of behaviour in a population tries to infer whether the average behaviour in some group influences the behaviour of the individuals that comprise the group it is found that inference is not possible unless the researcher has prior information specifying the compisition of reference groups if this information is available the prospects for inference depend critically on the population relationship between the variables defining reference groups and those directly affecting outcomes inference is difficult to implossible if these variables are functionally dependent or are statistically independent the prospects are better if the variables defining reference groups and those directly affecting outcomes are moderately related in the population

a micro econometric analysis of vacation behaviour we present a micro econometric limited dependent variable model which simultaneously explains the decision whether to go on vacation or not the choice of destination and the decision on the level of the vacation expenditures the model has been estimated on the basis of a cross section of dutch households we find a striking difference in income elasticity between domestic vacations and vacations abroad and a large impact of owning certain durables such as a boat on the choice of destination to illustrate the potential of the model some simulations are performed

an epidemic model of investor behavior i test whether social influence affects individual investors trading and stock returns in each of the 20 most active stocks in finland over 9 years the number of owners in a municipality multiplied by the number of investors who do not own a stock a measure of the rate of transmission of diseases and rumors through social contact predicts individual investor trading i control for known determinants of trade including daily news and show that competing explanations for the relation are unlikely socially motivated trades predict stock returns and the effects are not reversed suggesting that individuals share useful information individuals susceptibility to social influence has declined during the period but the opportunities for social influence have increased

modelling willingness to pay responses from dichotomous choice contingent valuation surveys with zero observations modelling household behaviour with the data from dichotomous choice contingent valuation dccv surveys is often complicated by zero willingness to pay wtp responses in the sample to deal with the zero responses a two equation model is considered which incorporates a two level decision structure a decision on whether to participate in having wtp and a decision on the wtp amount conditional on deciding to participate and two separate stochastic processes that determine the probability and conditional level of wtp are featured the model is empirically applied to household survey data in which the dccv questions concerned the benefits of air quality improvement in korea to put the issue of the two equation model in perspective this paper also experiments with economic and econometric specifications utility theoretic restriction and heteroscedasticity it is shown how failure to allow for the restriction distorts aggregate benefit estimates and the existence of heteroscedasticity in error term is

a bivariate zero inflated count data regression model with unrestricted correlation abstract this paper proposes a computationally simple bivariate zero inflated count data regression model with an unrestricted correlation pattern an application to data with excess of zeros on the demand for health services is given

parametric and semi parametric modelling of vacation expenditures we analyse several limited dependent variable models explaining the budget share that dutch families spend on vacations to take account of the substantial number of zero shares two types of models are used the first is the single equation censored regression model we estimate and test several parametric and semi parametric extensions of the tobit model second we consider two equation models in which the participation decision and the decision on the amount to spend are treated separately the first decision is modelled as a binary choice model the second as a conditional regression we estimate and test parametric and semi parametric specifications

modeling choice interdependence in a social network this paper investigates how individuals product choices are influenced by the product choices of their connected others and how the influence mechanism may differ for fashion versus technology related products we conduct a novel field experiment to induce and observe choice interdependence in a closed social network in our experiment we conceptualize individuals choices to be driven by multiattribute utilities and we measure their initial attribute preferences prior to observing their choice interdependence and collecting network information these design elements help alleviate concerns in identifying social interaction effects from other confounds given that we have complete information on choices and their sequence we use a discrete time markov chain model nonetheless we also use a markov random field mrf model as an alternative when the information on choice sequence is missing we find significant social interaction effects our findings show that whereas experts exert asymmetrically gre

analyzing and forecasting tourism demand with arar algorithm abstract this study investigates the arar model and its usefulness as a forecast generating mechanism for tourism demand for nine major tourist destinations in the asian pacific region the analysis is conducted on monthly inflow of international visitors covering the period 1975 01 2006 12 in monthly series we consider 6 12 18 and 24 months ahead forecasting horizons the accuracy of the forecasts in most cases is robust to the forecasting horizon based on such forecasting performance metric as mean absolute percentage error mape and root mean square error rmse the study is further expanded by including quarterly series in the forecasting exercise to ensure the reliability of the forecasting evaluation the 2 4 6 and 8 quarters ahead forecasting horizons are investigated a comparison between forecasts generated by monthly and quarterly data reveals that the performance is broadly similar finally the forecasts of arar are compared with those of seasonal arima which has been proven reliable in many forecasting contexts indeed arar model can be deemed as credible alternatives when modeling and forecasting tourism demand

an econometric study of tourism demand the aids model of us and european tourism in mediterranean countries the almost ideal demand system aids model was used to estimate tourism expenditure allocation by us and west european countries among a range of mediterranean destinations the approach has the advantage of an explicit basis in consumer expenditure theory and by modelling the changes in the budget shares of expenditure among destinations provides new information relative to that provided by the traditional single equation approach the estimated model was econometrically satisfactory although symmetry and homogeneity were rejected in line with the findings of past studies of consumer demand the expenditure elasticities demonstrated considerable differences in tourism demand preferences between origin countries and between traditional and newly developing destinations the own and cross price elasticities indicated the importance of effective prices in determining the allocation of expenditure among destinations

climate in the region of origin and destination choice in outbound tourism demand abstract this paper describes the relationship between regional climate in the home area and the choice of taking holidays in the region of origin or abroad this decision is simultaneously estimated with a bivariate probit model the study combines the socioeconomic characteristics of european households with information on the region of residence such as climate which is defined according to a new annualized climate index the estimated probabilities are analysed using gis and nonparametric techniques the results of modelling support the hypothesis that the climate in the region of residence is a strong determinant of holiday destination choice they show that residents in regions with better climate indices have a higher probability of travelling domestically and a lower probability of travelling abroad

the stature of the journal of international business studies this article examines the standing of the journal of international business studies jibs among scholarly journals and changes in its influence over a 11 year period 1981 to 1991 using a variety of citation indices we suggested that two new measures a prestige index and a trajectory index are helpful in assessing a journal s influence and reputation we estimate these as well as several standard citation measures to gauge jibs progress in the recent past we find that jibs does well on all measures but room for improvement remains this article discusses options available to the editorial board to raise jibs prestige

productivity growth technical progress and efficiency change in industrialized countries this paper analyzes productivity growth in 17 oecd countries over the period 1979 1988 a nonparametric programming method activity analysis is used to compute malmquist productivity indexes these are decomposed into two component measures namely technical change and efficiency change we find that u s productivity growth is slightly higher than average all of which is due to technical change japan s productivity growth is the highest in the sample with almost half due to efficiency change jel c43 d24 in this paper we apply recently developed

an analysis of twenty five years of research in the journal of international business studies the article analyzes the twenty five years of research published in the journal of international business studies jibs since its inception in 1970 the article reviews the authors their institutional affiliations and the discipline content of the published articles

semiparametric econometrics a survey summary semiparametric econometric models contain both parametric and nonparametric components reflecting in some fashion what has been learned from economic theory and previous empirical experience and what remains unknown they raise such questions as how well the parametric component can be estimated and how to construct rules of inference with good statistical properties the paper attempts to survey the econometric and most relevant statistical literature on semiparametric inference and includes a partial bibliography

a double hurdle analysis of travel expenditure baby boomer seniors versus older seniors abstract this study examined the socio demographic and economic determinants of leisure travel expenditure and compared these determinants in baby boomer senior households and older senior households in the united states unlike previous studies this study performed heckman s double hurdle analysis using the consumer expenditure survey ces to present a two step process for making travel consumption decisions the results revealed that more baby boomer senior households participated in leisure travels than older senior households however among those households that chose to travel the mean expenditure of the older senior group was higher than for baby boomers this study also showed similarities and differences in the determinants of travel consumption decisions between baby boomer seniors and older seniors this two step approach provided in depth information on the processes involved in deciding to travel and how much to spend on travel this additional information will be valuable in understanding senior consumers in the tourism industry

forecasting tourist arrivals using origin country macroeconomics this study utilizes both disaggregated data and macroeconomic indicators in order to examine the importance of the macroeconomic environment of origin countries for analysing destinations tourist arrivals in particular it is the first study to present strong empirical evidence that both of these features in tandem provide statistically significant information of tourist arrivals in greece the forecasting exercises presented in our analysis show that macroeconomic indicators conducive to better forecasts are mainly origin country specific thus highlighting the importance of considering the apparent sharp national contrasts among origin countries when investigating domestic tourist arrivals given the extent of the dependency of the greek economy on tourism income but also given the perishable nature of the tourist product itself results have important implications for policy makers in greece

membership of editorial boards and rankings of schools with international business orientation using 4 year data 1990 1994 1998 and 2002 we have provided a ranking of schools with international business ib orientation based on the membership of editorial boards of 30 leading international business journals participation on the editorial boards of quality journals is highly selective and should provide a quality indication of the schools both quality unadjusted and adjusted board membership based ranking are calculated in this study several interesting findings are worth noting first us schools play a significant leadership role among the leading ib programs second the findings of this study also show the major contribution of non us schools which confirms the importance of the global nature of the ib discipline third the top ranked schools share a number of characteristics finally the correlation among different ranking criteria can be low particularly for the top ranked schools suggesting that care should be exercised in interpreting school ranking

the power of international business research statistical power is the probability of accepting the null hypothesis when it is false type ii error this research note reports the results of a statistical power analysis of international business research published in the journal of international business studies management international review the academy of management journal and the strategic management journal from 1990 to 1999 the results show that although average statistical power is high compared with other disciplines it is sufficient only for large effect sizes ess only studies published in the journal of international business studies and the academy of management journal achieve average statistical power levels that are sufficient for both medium and large ess still the observed likelihood of committing type ii errors in international business research is very high for small ess 92 and high for medium ess 45 in addition statistical power is not explicitly mentioned or used by international business researchers a weakness that this note is designed to change

vacation behaviour under high travel cost conditions a stated preference of revealed preference approach abstract this paper investigates vacation behaviour under high travel cost conditions we estimate discrete portfolio vacation choice models on data obtained in a novel free format stated preference of revealed preference sp off rp choice experiment the substantive contribution of this paper is that we develop new insights into vacation behaviour under high travel cost conditions we find that vacationers exhibit considerable diminishing marginal disutility of vacation travel costs furthermore we have identified significant interactions effects across the following vacation choice dimensions destination length of stay accommodation type and mode of transport therefore a substantial increase in travel costs is likely to have marked consequences for the tourism industry reaching beyond the transportation side of tourism methodological contributions of this paper are twofold 1 it proposes a choice experiment in which sp alternatives are constructed by pivoting of late consideration set alternatives rather than only of a chosen alternative and 2 it proposes and illustrates the use of a generalization of a recently proposed sp off rp estimation procedure