total factor productivity intangible assets and spatial dependence in the european regions dettori b marrocu e and paci r total factor productivity intangible assets and spatial dependence in the european regions regional studies the aim of this paper is to analyse the determinants of the efficiency levels across the european regions firstly a regression based measure of regional total factor productivity is derived by estimating a spatial cobb douglas production function secondly the role played by intangible factors human capital social capital and technological capital on total factor productivity levels is investigated by applying the spatial two stage least squares 2sls method and the spatial heteroskedasticy and correlation consistent shac estimator to account for both heteroskedasticity and spatial autocorrelation it turns out that a large part of total factor productivity differences across the european regions is explained by disparities in the endowments of these intangible assets dettori b marrocu e and paci r

intangible investment and regional productivity in great britain melachroinos k a and spence n intangible investment and regional productivity in great britain regional studies investment in intangible assets is considered to be an important driver of territorial competitiveness and wealth creation nevertheless conventional growth accounting analyses treat most intangibles as intermediate expenditure and thus fail to capture the full effect of intangibles on output expansion and productivity dynamics this situation has changed recently as a result of research that approaches a wider range of intangibles as capital based on such a national study this paper investigates the significance of intangibles as a source of regional economic growth in great britain and the effect of these assets on the productivity performance between 1995 and 2004 melachroinos k a and spence n 1995 2004

an investigation of the gains from commitment in monetary policy this paper proposes a simple framework for analyzing a continuum of monetary policy rules characterized by differing degrees of credibility in which commitment and discretion become special cases of what we call quasi commitment the monetary policy authority is assumed to formulate optimal commitment plans to be tempted to renege on them and to succumb to this temptation with a constant exogenous probability known to the private sector by interpreting this probability as a continuous measure of the lack of credibility of the monetary policy authority we investigate the welfare effect of a marginal increase in credibility our main finding is that in a simple model of the monetary transmission mechanism most of the gains from commitment accrue at relatively low levels of credibility in our benchmark calibration a commitment expected to last for only 6 quarters is enough to bridge 75 of the welfare gap between discretion and commitment this seems to justify the well known concern of monetary policy makers about their credibility even in a world with limited access to commitment technologies

uk regional plant and machinery capital stocks and premature scrapping harris r i d 1997 uk regional plant and machinery capital stocks and premature scrapping reg studies 31 737 750 historically a lack of capital stock data has severely limited the ability to carry out supply side analyses of the british regional economy hence the present paper extends an earlier study to produce uk regional plant and machinery capital stocks for the 1968 91 period in doing so it is necessary to take account of premature scrapping especially during the period after 1977 this was achieved using industry by region data on plant closures which provides a reasonable approximation that is much more reliable than when using figures obtained from interpolating the trend output capital ratio this paper also considers the importance of differing industrial structures on the composition and growth of regional manufacturing capital stock together with why it is important to adjust capital stocks for utilization when estimating supply side relationships based on uk regional data harr

the new keynesian liquidity trap abstract many new keynesian models produce a deep recession with deflation at the zero bound these models also make unusual policy predictions useless government spending technical regress capital destruction and forward guidance can raise output moreover these predictions are larger as prices become less sticky and as changes are expected further in the future i show that these predictions are strongly affected by equilibrium selection for the same interest rate path equilibria that bound initial jumps predict mild inflation small output variation negative multipliers small effects of far off expectations and a smooth frictionless limit fiscal policy considerations suggest the latter equilibria

how optimal is us monetary policy using a small scale microfounded dsge model with markov switching in shock variances and policy parameters we show that the data preferred description of us monetary policy is a time consistent targeting rule with a marked increase in conservatism after the 1970s however the fed lost its conservatism temporarily in the aftermath of the 1987 stock market crash and again following the 2000 dot com crash and has not subsequently regained it the high inflation of the 1970s would have been avoided had the fed been able to commit even without the appointment of paul volcker or the reduction in shock volatilities

regression toward mediocrity in economic stature this paper provides estimates of the correlation in lifetime earnings between fathers and sons intergenerational data from the national longitudinal survey are used earlier studies conducted for the united states report elasticities of children s earnings with respect to parent s earnings of 0 2 or less suggesting extensive integenerational mobility these estimates however are biased downward by error contaminated measures of lifetime economic status estimates presented in this paper correct for the problem of measurement error and find the intergenerational correlation in income to be on the order of 0 4 this suggests considerably less intergenerational mobility than previously believed jel j62

optimal monetary and fiscal policy with a zero bound on nominal interest rates i characterize optimal monetary and fiscal policy in a stochastic new keynesian model when nominal interest rates may occasionally hit the zero lower bound the benevolent policymaker controls the short term nominal interest rate and the level of government spending under discretionary policy accounting for fiscal stabilization policy eliminates to a large extent the welfare losses associated with the presence of the zero bound under commitment the gains associated with the use of the fiscal policy tool remain modest even though fiscal stabilization policy is part of the optimal policy mix

monetary and fiscal policy in a liquidity trap with inflation persistence abstract this paper relies on the new keynesian model with structural inflation persistence to characterize the optimal monetary and fiscal policy in a liquidity trap it shows that with a phillips curve that is both forward and backward looking the monetary policy that is implemented during a liquidity trap episode can be sufficient to avoid a depression the central bank does not need to commit beyond the end of the crisis to get some traction on economic activity regarding fiscal policy inflation persistence justifies some front loading of government expenditures to get inflation started such as to reduce the real interest rate the magnitude of the optimal fiscal stimulus is decreasing in the degree of inflation persistence finally if inflation persistence is due to adaptive expectations rather than to price indexation then monetary policy is ineffective while the optimal fiscal stimulus is large and heavily front loaded

optimal monetary policy under commitment with a zero bound on nominal interest rates we determine optimal monetary policy under commitment in a forwardlooking new keynesian model when nominal interest rates are bounded below by zero the lower bound represents an occasionally binding constraint that causes the model and optimal policy to be nonlinear a calibration to the u s economy suggests that policy should reduce nominal interest rates more aggressively than suggested by a model without lower bound rational agents anticipate the possibility of reaching the lower bound in the future and this amplifies the effects of adverse shocks well before the bound is reached while the empirical magnitude of u s mark up shocks seems too small to entail zero nominal interest rates shocks affecting the natural real interest rate plausibly lead to a binding lower bound under optimal policy however this occurs quite infrequently and does not imply positive average inflation rates in equilibrium interestingly the presence of binding real rate shocks alters the policy response to non binding markup shocks

fiscal policy in an expectations driven liquidity trap we study the effects of fiscal policy interventions in a liquidity trap in a model with nominal rigidities and an interest rate rule in a liquidity trap caused by a self fulfilling state of low confidence higher government spending has deflationary effects that reduce the spending multiplier when the zero lower bound is binding instead cuts in marginal labor tax rates are inflationary and become more expansionary when the zero lower bound is binding these findings contradict popular views about the effects of fiscal policy in a liquidity trap

imperfect credibility and the zero lower bound as the nominal interest rate cannot fall below zero a central bank with imperfect credibility faces a significant challenge to stabilize the economy in a new keynesian model during a large recession we characterize the optimal monetary policy at the zero lower bound for the nominal interest rate if credibility is imperfect confronting monetary policy communication of the u s federal reserve and the swedish riksbank with such a framework the credibility of both institutions is shown to have been low in the aftermath of the 2008 economic crisis

the perils of taylor rules abstract since john taylor s 1993 carnegie rochester conf ser publ policy39 195 214 seminal paper a large literature has argued that active interest rate feedback rules that is rules that respond to increases in inflation with a more than one for one increase in the nominal interest rate are stabilizing in this paper we argue that once the zero bound on nominal interest rates is taken into account active interest rate feedback rules can easily lead to unexpected consequences specifically we show that even if the steady state at which monetary policy is active is locally the unique equilibrium typically there exist an infinite number of equilibrium trajectories originating arbitrarily close to that steady state that converge to a liquidity trap that is a steady state in which the nominal interest rate is near zero and inflation is possibly negative journal of economic literature classification numbers e52 e31 e63

a behavioral new keynesian model this paper presents a framework for analyzing how bounded rationality affects monetary and fiscal policy the model is a tractable and parsimonious enrichment of the widely used new keynesian model with one main new cognitive discounting parameter which quantifies how poorly agents understand future economic disturbances that myopia parameter in turn affects the power of monetary and fiscal policy in a microfounded general equilibrium a number of consequences emerge i fiscal stimulus or helicopter drops of money are powerful and indeed pull the economy out of the zero lower bound more generally the model allows for the joint analysis of optimal monetary and fiscal policy ii the taylor principle is strongly modified even with passive monetary policy equilibrium is determinate whereas the traditional rational model yields multiple equilibria which reduces its predictive power and generates indeterminate economies at the zero lower bound zlb iii the zlb is much less costly than in the traditional model iv the model brings a natural solution to the forward guidance puzzle the fact that in the rational model shocks to very distant rates have a very powerful impact on today s consumption and inflation because agents are partially myopic this effect is muted v optimal policy changes qualitatively the optimal commitment policy with rational agents demands nominal gdp targeting this is not the case with behavioral firms as the benefits of commitment are less strong with myopic firms vi the model is neo fisherian in the long run but keynesian in the short run a permanent rise in the interest rate decreases inflation in the short run but increases it in the long run the non standard behavioral features of the model seem warranted by extant empirical evidence

optimal monetary policy at the zero interest rate bound what should a central bank do when faced with a weak aggregate demand even after reducing the short term nominal interest rate to zero to address this question we solve a central bank s intertemporal loss minimization problem in which the non negativity constraint on nominal interest rates is explicitly considered we find that the optimal path is characterized by policy inertia in the sense that a zero interest rate policy should be continued for a while even after the natural rate of interest returns to a positive level by making such a commitment the central bank is able to achieve higher expected inflation lower long term nominal interest rates and a weaker domestic currency in the adverse periods when the natural rate of interest significantly deviates from a steady state level

eliminating a deflationary trap through superinertial interest rate rules abstract this paper demonstrates that even in the presence of a zero lower bound on nominal interest rates central banks can eliminate a deflationary trap by the conduct of interest rate rules that have superinertia

the perils of nominal targets a monetary authority can be committed to pursuing an inflation price level or nominal gdp target yet systematically fail to achieve the prescribed goal constrained by the zero lower bound on the policy rate the monetary authority is unable to implement its objectives when private sector expectations stray far enough from the target low inflation expectations become self fulfilling resulting in an additional markov equilibrium in which the monetary authority falls short of the nominal target average output is below its efficient level and the policy rate is typically low introducing a stabilization goal for long term nominal rates can implement a unique markov equilibrium without fully compromising stabilization policy

optimal monetary policy and determinacy under active passive regimes abstract should one expect inflation to be stable when monetary policy is passive according to the workhorse model for monetary policy analysis the answer should be no if the passive spell is too long in this paper i develop a new keynesian model in which monetary policy is optimal subject to a loose commitment constraint i show that there is a threshold degree of commitment such that the equilibrium is locally unique when monetary policy switches between active and passive stances regardless of the length of the passive spell this result also holds for a version of the model where the passive spell is endogenous and due to a demand shock driving the economy to the zero lower bound

bequests taxation and the distribution of wealth in a general equilibrium model this paper examines the role of bequests and of taxation on bequests for the distribution of wealth we investigate a model with overlapping generations and heterogenous households where parents derive utility directly from their bequests we obtain all results analytically using the coefficient of variation as the measure of inequality bequests per se diminish the inequality of wealth since they raise private savings and hence average wealth holdings more than the variance of wealth from a policy perspective taxing bequests and redistributing government revenue lump sum among the young generation further decreases wealth inequality

solving endogenous regime switching models abstract this paper solves rational expectations models in which structural parameters switch across multiple regimes according to state dependent endogenous transition probabilities assuming small shocks and smooth transition probabilities we apply a perturbation approach we first provide for conditions under which a unique bounded equilibrium exists we then compute first and second order approximations in a new keynesian model with monetary policy switching we document new effects of monetary policy switching when transition probabilities depend on inflation

the optimal monetary policy rule under the non negativity constraint on nominal interest rates abstract we identify a monetary policy rule that remains optimal even in the presence of the non negativity constraint on nominal interest rates this rule also compensates for any past shortfalls in monetary easing during the zero interest rate period

the government spending multiplier in a mis managed liquidity trap i study the impact of a government spending shock in a new keynesian model when monetary policy is set optimally in this framework the economy is at the zero lower bound but expectations are well managed by the central bank as such the multiplier effect of government spending increases on expected inflation is small while the one on output can be larger than one this is consistent with recent empirical evidence on the effects of the 2009 arra