real and money wages output and inflation in the semi industrialized world recent structuralist ideas about real and money wage changes are reviewed addressing six questions 1 in an economy closed to trade do real wage increases cause output to rise or fall 2 if output is at an upper bound what are the roles of real wage and wealth movements in macro adjustment 3 taking effective demand into account do money wage cuts stimulate employment 4 in an open economy does money wage reduction or devaluation make output rise 5 at an output bound what are the respective roles of wage reduction and monetary restraint in slowing inflation 6 if inflation is driven by cost with output below capacity how do wage dynamics affect stabilization programmes based on de indexation and price freezes institutional factors suggest that wage cutting may be a counterproductive answer to all these policy questions in semi industrialized economies

the money supply and nominal agricultural prices in the early 1970s food and agricultural prices in the united states rose substantially faster than other prices now early in the 1980s farm prices are depressed relative to other prices in the economy numerous explanations of the behavior of nominal agricultural prices in the past decade have been offered these explanations may be broadly divided into two categories the first is the structuralist explanation it argues that real shocks in selected sectors of the economy such as global crop failures raise prices of certain goods these price increases are later validated or accommodated by expansions in the money supply so that the prices of other goods need not decline in contrast monetarist inflation explanations argue that autonomous increases in the money supply lead or cause the price increases and do not just occur ex post to accommodate real shocks ultimately both explanations recognize that without monetary expansion no long run inflation can occur the fundamental difference is

the agrarian barrier to industrial growth it is argued here that in transitional economies industrial growth depends not so much on the size of the agricultural surplus but rather on the rates of productivity growth and population growth in agriculture via their effects on the size of the home market for manufactures in developing this argument estimates of the agricultural surplus and inter sectoral market shares in post restoration japan and post independence india are compared a typology of agrarian systems is then suggested based on how alternative systems influence productivity and population trends in agriculture the typology is illustrated with historical comparisons from europe japan and india

macrodynamic adjustment mechanisms in india abstract the dynamic interplay among food prices manufacturing profitability and investments is investigated in a macrodynamic model of india the interaction between agriculture and the rest of the economy and the role of the income distribution are emphasized the dynamic mechanisms include investment response in agriculture and manufacturing and wage indexation the sixth five year plan is used to establish a trend growth reference path for the analysis policy experiments show trade offs among growth inflation and income distribution that should be taken into account when fiscal policies and investment strategies are decided

on passive money there are two ways in which the quantity of money may be included in a general equilibrium system as a datum whose value is fixed exogenously or as an unknown whose value is determined by the equilibrium system itself let them be called active money and passive money respectively current monetary theory uses the first approach the ricardo walraskeynes tradition in general equilibrium models is clearly of the activemoney variety this is also true of the more contemporary versions such as patinkin s well known system 1965 apart from the main stream of thought however a number of analyses exist which imply passive money the gold standard model as it is usually expounded belongs to this class the price of gold in terms of money is given while the stock of money is endogenously determined by the set of equilibrium conditions the form in which the quantity of money adapts to its equilibrium level differs according to the institutional mechanism convergence is assured through monetization and demonetization of gold in the pure goldcurrency system and through convertibility of notes into gold and vice versa in the gold standard system with paper money in either case the money supply is allowed to conform to its equilibrium volume this kind of monetary system in which the money price of a certain product or commodity is a datum and the quantity of money a dependent magnitude may be denoted in general as a commodity standard

managing online auctions current business and research issues the internet s computational power and flexibility have made auctions a widespread and integral part of both consumer and business markets though online auctions are a multi billion dollar annual activity with a growing variety of sophisticated trading mechanisms scientific research on them is at an early stage this paper analyzes the current state of management science research on online auctions it develops a broad research agenda for issues such as the behavior of online auction participants the optimal design of online auctions the integration of auctions into the ongoing operation of firms and the use of the data generated by online auctions to inform future trading mechanisms these research areas will draw from applied and theoretical work spanning management science economics and information systems

optimal financial policy and firm valuation since the classic work of miller and modigliani 1961 laid down the principles for the valuation of firms under conditions of certainty some two decades ago academic interest in the problem of valuing the individual firm has waned yet in addition to the obvious importance of this problem for security analysts investors and acquirers of corporations the issue of firm valuation is fundamental to much of the theory of corporate finance what determines the risk of the firm how the rate of return required by investors may be inferred from capital market data the influence of financing policy on firm value and other issues of central concern to the theory of financial management this almost total neglect of firm valuation is attributable perhaps to the overwhelming influence of the research programme initiated by the development of the capital asset pricing model only three years after the publication of the above mentioned paper by miller and modigliani in its primary form the capital asset pricing model is a statement about the equilibrium rates of return on securities rather than about the equilibrium values of securities it is straightforward to transform the model into a statement about the dependence of current equilibrium values upon an exogenously specified distribution of end of period values however in this form the model is inherently unsatisfactory since it fails to take account of the fact that in reality the distribution of end of period firm values is not exogenously given but is determined as part of a subsequent capital market equilibrium attempts to iterate the single period capital asset pricing model over several periods in order to avoid the need to take the distribution future security values as exogenous have been unsuccessful for the most part since not being able to derive they have been forced to assume both the requisite normality of the distribution of subsequent security prices and the legitimacy of ignoring endogenously determined shifts in the individual investor s investment

managing channel profits a channel of distribution consists of different channel members each having his own decision variables however each channel member s decisions do affect the other channel members profits and as a consequence actions a lack of coordination of these decisions can lead to undesirable consequences for example in the simple manufacturer retailer consumer channel uncoordinated and independent channel members decisions over margins result in a higher price paid by the consumer than if those decisions were coordinated in addition the ensuing suboptimal volume leads to lower profits for both the manufacturer and the retailer this paper explores the problems inherent in channel coordination we address the following questions what is the effect of channel coordination what causes a lack of coordination in the channel how difficult is it to achieve channel coordination what mechanisms exist which can achieve channel coordination what are the strengths and weaknesses of these mechanism what is the role of nonprice variables e g manufacturer advertising retailer shelf space in coordination does the lack of coordination affect normative implications from in store experimentation can quantity discounts be a coordination mechanism are some marketing practices actually disguised quantity discounts we review the literature and present a simple formulation illustrating the roots of the coordination problem we then derive the form of the quantity discount schedule that results in optimum channel profits this article was originally published in marketing science volume 2 issue 3 pages 239 272 in 1983

the effects of information transparency on suppliers manufacturers and consumers in online markets this paper looks into the effects of information transparency on market participants in an online trading environment we study these effects in business to business electronic markets with firms competing in both upstream and downstream industries the prior literature generally assumes that either the downstream firm buyer or the upstream firm seller is a monopoly it is not clear whether information transparency would still create value if both buyers and sellers face oligopolistic competition where the benefits of information transparency could be competed away to answer this question we first develop a simple two echelon e market model and then extend the model to more general settings we find that information transparency can create value for the overall e market yet it affects buyers and sellers very differently one side will be hurt depending on the competition mode cournot or bertrand in the downstream this suggests that a manufacturer owned a supplier owned and a neutral e market will have different preferences for information transparency finally we find that information transparency can hurt consumers when the downstream industry engages in bertrand competition this is a surprising result given the expectation that online markets create substantial value for consumers

characteristics of mexican economic growth empirical testing of some latin american structuralist hypotheses abstract this article examines a series of hypotheses about the latin american industrialization process put forward by the structuralist school of thought using mexico as a test case in particular it examines the relationship between the distribution of income and associated patterns of consumption and industrial structure and its implications on demand constraints growth constraints employment constraint and multinational control the results indicate that the modern traditional dichotomy based on durable versus non durable consumer goods is not the best way to examine this relationship since the consumption patterns for durable goods do not show a homogeneous behavior when distribution changes overall it was found that growth and employment constraints and multinational control seem to get more exacerbated under greater inequality with respect to the demand constraints no definite conclusion can be made because of the mentioned heterogeneity in the response of durable goods to changes in distribution and the lack of information on relative excess capacity and or dynamic linkages of the different sectors

food supply and inflation abstract the paper presents an analytic version of the latin american structuralist theory of inflation it emphasizes the difference between the productive sectors of the economy and draws attention to the fact that the inflationary process is closely linked to inconsistent claims for shares in income it describes a keynesian economy with two three sectors real desired wages are rigid money is passive it is shown that the structuralist hypotheses are capable of generating disequilibria that can lead to constantly rising prices without any built in mechanism to offset them steady inflation can only persist if workers allow their real wage to be kept below target as the workers try to catch on the model will blow up an accelerating inflation can be observed in many latin american countries during periods when wage settlements aimed at restoring inflation losses escaped the government control the paper also explores the implications of foreign trade it shows that under structuralist hypotheses external disequilibria cannot be corrected through exchange rate devaluations alone and it examines the stagflationary impacts of an increase in the price of imported intermediates

exchange of cost information in oligopoly when do oligopolists gain by sharing their private information about their costs with one another what are the social welfare effects of such information exchange i study these questions by comparing the oligopolists expected profits under a cost sharing agreement with their expected profits in the bayesian equilibrium that would arise without cost sharing i also analyse the firms decisions to form a trade association to share their cost data under conditions of linear demand and cournot behaviour industrywide information exchange is the unique point in the core of the trade association membership game the exchange of cost data increases expected profits and welfare but reduces expected consumer surplus cost sharing increases efficiency by raising the market shares of lower cost firms and reducing the variability of aggregate output consumer surplus is diminished however because the variance of output is reduced and consumer surplus is a convex function of output

how big is the debt overhang problem abstract i re examine the debt overhang problem where the flexible investment level rather than the irreversible decision whether or not to operate is used to measure the underinvestment caused by debt financing i measure a large overhang cost with long term debt or short term debt as is standard underinvestment with long term debt is more severe when investment opportunities are poor and is mitigated as opportunities improve in contrast underinvestment with short term debt remains significant even when investment opportunities are good firms lever up as opportunities improve to take advantage of tax shields so that equity claimants still face the incentive to underinvest

coordinating channels under price and nonprice competition this paper analyzes how manufacturers should coordinate distribution channels when retailers compete in price as well as important nonprice factors such as the provision of product information free repair faster check out or after sales service differentiation among retailers in price and nonprice service factors is a central feature of markets ranging from automobiles and appliances to gasoline and is especially observed in the coexistence of high service retailers and lower price discount retailers therefore how a manufacturer should manage retail differentiation is an important channel management question yet the approach in the existing literature has been to examine channel coordination under the standard symmetric contracting assumption that offering a uniform contract to all the retailers in a market will be sufficient for coordination i bring this assumption into question and ask when is it optimal for the manufacturer to use the channel contract to deliberately induce retail differentiation even if the retailers were ex ante identical in their cost and other characteristics the paper identifies the type of channel contracts that can endogenously induce symmetry as opposed to differentiation among retailers next the paper highlights a type of channel conflict that arises from the very nature of retail price service competition a manufacturer might find the retailers to be excessively biased towards price competition at the cost of service provision or vice versa the paper establishes when a manufacturer is likely to stimulate greater price as opposed to greater service competition among the retailers the framework that i develop to address these issues highlights the role of two basic types of consumer heterogeneity consumers are heterogeneous in their locations as in the spatial models of horizontal differentiation and in their willingness to pay for retail services as in the models of vertical differentiation the model also uses a natural relationship in retail markets between the travel time cost incurred by a consumer and her willingness to pay the more affluent consumers who have a higher willingness to pay for retail services also have a higher cost for their personal time given these market features the paper analyzes the problem faced by a manufacturer who sells to competing retailers the paper shows that the standard notion in the literature of offering similar contracts to all the retailers is sufficient only in markets with substantial locational differentiation relative to the differences in the willingness to pay effective channel management in these markets simply requires mechanisms that ensure that retailer interests are aligned so that they compete by offering a mix of price and service that is desirable from the manufacturer s point of view however in markets with small locational differentiation and substantial diversity in consumer willingness to pay the manufacturer s problem is not just to align retailer interests but to also use the channel contract to induce the correct level of retail differentiation this helps the manufacturer to better cater to the diversity in consumer willingness to pay and to prevent the cut throat competition that the retailers would otherwise have indulged in the manufacturer can achieve this through the use of menu based contracts menu based contracts induce differentiated retailer behavior despite the fact that the retailers are not forced into accepting different terms of trade this aspect can be useful in shielding manufacturers from litigation under the robinson patman act the paper also shows that for relatively high ticket items retailers tend to be excessively biased towards competing in the provision of retail services the correlation between consumer willingness to pay for service and travel costs implies that for high ticket products the competing retailers will focus on the more service sensitive customers at the cost of ignoring the price sensitive consumers in the market the manufacturer is therefore likely to encourage greater price competition among the retailers in contrast for low ticket items the manufacturer prefers to reduce price competition and encourage greater provision of services this provides an endogenous rationale for the use of price ceilings versus floors the basic model is also extended to consider the effect of upstream competition between manufacturers under upstream competition coordinating retail price and service decisions is not always optimal for an individual manufacturer this extension to manufacturer competition provides a basis for understanding the role of retail price service differentiation in the context of a channel duopoly it also shows that a mixed distribution channel a channel in which one manufacturer chooses to be coordinated while the other chooses to be noncoordinated can be an equilibrium in markets with weak brand loyalty

terms of trade and domestic distribution export led growth with abundant labour abstract a general equilibrium macro model is constructed to explore effects of export led growth policies on the terms of trade and the domestic distribution of a developing region with abundant labour this region the south trades with another the north they have different technologies and supplies of factors it is shown that under certain conditions of dualism in the production of goods and of abundant labour supply in the south an increase in the volume of exports from the south may bring about a sustained worsening of the south s terms of trade with the north even if this increase in exports is due to a positive shift in demand from the north this change in the terms of trade is accompanied by a sustained loss of purchasing power of wages within the south these results take place in a walrasian stable market when technologies are more homogenous and labour less abundant the results are reversed increased exports will take place together with improvements in terms of trade and a tendency to equalise factor prices between the regions the results argue for coordination of domestic and international policies with special attention to technologies and labour markets

heterodox theories of economic growth and income distribution a partial survey heterodox theories of economic growth and income distribution are surveyed focusing on major theories and recent contributions first a general framework for examining growth and distribution is discussed in terms of which classical marxian and post keynesian kaleckian and other theories are presented since this framework examines how variables are determined in equilibrium second dynamics behind equilibria are examined focusing on goods market and labor market changes third the framework is extended in a variety of ways to examine additional models addressing productivity growth and technical change money and inflation finance and debt additional distributional considerations multisector issues open economy questions and the environment it is concluded that the literature on heterodox theories of growth and distribution is vibrant large and growing and addresses many issues that are ignored or neglected in orthodox theories including power unemployment and aggregate demand

terms of trade policy in a model with non produced means of production abstract terms of trade policies between agriculture and industry are analysed in a two sector sraffian model if both sectors use only produced means of production and labor it can be shown that an improvement in agriculture s terms of trade always leads to higher profits in agriculture however when non produced means of production are introduced an exogenous increase in the relative price of agricultural commodities may cause the rate of profit in agriculture to increase remain constant or even decrease two preconditions are identified for the case in which a favorable movement in agriculture s terms of trade decreases that sector s profit rate first at least one quality of competitively priced land must be scarce relative to the total output required second the initial economy wide rate of profit must be positive finally the effect of an input subsidy used in conjunction with terms of trade policy is considered it is shown that under certain conditions reducing the price of production inputs can also cause profits to fall and rents to rise in agriculture

stagnation income distribution and monopoly power the deceleration in the rate of industrial growth in the indian economy since the middlesixties initially interpreted by some as a temporary downward deviation from trend hasnow come to be generally accepted as reflecting long run tendencies towards stagnation several explanations for these tendencies have been offered bhagwati and desai 1970 and bhagwati and srinivasan 1975 have focused on inefficiencies and the misallocationof resources arising from industrial policies pursued by the government others chakravarty 1974 raj 1976 and vaidyanathan 1974 among them have emphasisedthe sluggishness of agricultural growth which is alleged to have retarded industrial growthby limiting markets and the supply of wage goods and raw materials a third view reflectedin srinivasan and narayana 1977 for example has put the blame on a slackening of invest ment demand due to lower public investment but does not explain why public investmentfell or why its fall restrained industrial growth finally there is the explanation put forthin bagchi 1970 1975 1982 in nayyar 1978 and in parts of mitra 1977 that inequali ties in income distribution have resulted in a limited demand for industrial goods reducedincentives for investment and therefore reduced growth this view seems to suggest apositive relation between growth and income equality which is opposed to the generallyaccepted idea derived from cambridge growth models that higher growth requires greaterinequality the purpose of this paper is to examine the last explanation by considering the inter action between growth and income distribution in an underdeveloped economy with thehelp of a simple macroeconomic model the model is a stylisation of the indian economy so that we will be able to use the model to assess the argument that a deceleration in therate of growth of the indian industrial economy could have been caused by an unequaldistribution of income the argument will not be made that this income distributional con straint is the binding constraint on industrial growth the model will merely examine theinternal consistency of the argument that a bad income distribution could explain stagnation in the sense of reduced growth and show that in the indian context as in other similarcontexts this argument can be put forward in explaining stagnation our argument is first presented with a highly simplified schematisation of the indianeconomy which we shall call the basic model the economy modelled produces only one

stock equilibrium in flexprice markets in macromodels for less developed economies the case of food speculation abstract this paper extends macroeconomic models of less developed economies with a flexprice agricultural sector and a fixprice non agricultural sector to allow for stock equilibrium in flexprice markets as advocated by hicks and to thereby incorporate the empiricallu important phenomenon of food speculation it is shown that models ignoring such features may yield incorrect insights regarding reality and that increased speculation in foodgrains is likely to result in adverse consequences for both growth prospects and the distribution of income

bankruptcy and agency costs their significance to the theory of optimal capital structure we support and generalize our original results 1978 in light of potential impediments to a pure market solution to agency problems and potential causal links between liquidation and bankruptcy in the case of bankruptcy costs market impediments are easily elimi nated through the inclusion of simple provisions in corporate charters and bond inden tures further we demonstrate that recent attempts to link liquidation costs to capital structure are without merit if the firm is to be liquidated on the basis of a rule other than one that maximizes the total value of all the claimants arbitrage profits arise and informal reorganization will discipline management to follow the liquidation rule that is optimal for existing securityholders also we find that the pure market solution is not readily generalizable to other classes of agency problems particularly the risk incentive problem how ever the alternative solution of the risk incentive problem through complex financing contracting may be useful in explaining complexities in contemporary financial contracts in a previous paper 1978 we employed arbitrage arguments to show that in a well functioning market bankruptcy costs are an insignificant determinant of a firm s capital structure we also pointed out that the decision to liquidate and its associated costs can be separated from the event of bankruptcy moreover any costs actually associated with the event of bankruptcy must be limited to the costs associated with an informal reorganization of the capital structure in the capital market prior to default these results were argued to hold under a com plex environment with multiple periods multiple securities and heterogeneous expectations we concluded that bankruptcy costs would be a significant deter minant of capital structure only in the face of irrationality on the part of market participants or unavoidable impediments to the arbitrage process since the publication of our paper there has been an accumulation of the

stagnation income distribution and the agrarian constraint a note through an accelerator effect a problem with the model is that it ignores completely a very important feature of less developed economies like india namely the agricultural sector the model considered production under oligopolistic conditions with firms holding an excess capacity of capital while this may be an accurate depiction of the industrial sector it is totally inaccurate for an agricultural sector with many peasant farms and where output seems to be constrained by factors other than effective demand it is therefore necessary to re examine the issue of the relation between distribution and growth by making explicit allowance for a separate agricultural sector in the model it may be argued that the existence of the agricultural sector invalidates the positive relation between income equality and growth kumar 1989 for example has claimed that the slow growth of the agricultural sector rather than the problem of effective demand caused by the high degree of monopoly power is the constraint on indian growth this can be taken to mean that since growth in agriculture achieved by the relaxation of

on the dynamic instability of induced migration unemployment in a dual economy abstract previous attempts to integrate the todarian analysis of rural urban migration with the dual economy growth model have relied upon an essentially static version of the migration hypothesis inappropriate in a growth context in this paper it is shown that when a dynamic version of the hypothesis is used the steady state growth equilibrium whilst characterised by a positive unemployment rate typical of todarian models is unstable these results have policy implications which differ from those presented in the previous literature

electronic b2b marketplaces with different ownership structures this paper analyzes electronic marketplaces with different ownership structures biased marketplaces and neutral marketplaces biased marketplaces can be either buyer owned or supplier owned whereas neutral marketplaces are owned by independent third parties we develop a single period model with fulfilled expectations equilibrium the buyers experience positive network effects that are a function of the number of suppliers and the suppliers receive similar positive network effects depending on the number of buyers we develop a general model with atomistic buyers and suppliers we find that biased marketplaces set prices to induce greater participation demand from both buyers and suppliers compared to a neutral marketplace this counterintuitive result can be understood in the context of the positive cross network effects experienced by buyers and suppliers and the added benefit to the owner of a biased marketplace from participating in the marketplace biased marketplaces also provide greater social welfare compared to neutral marketplaces

advertising in a distribution channel conventional wisdom suggests that one of the goals of manufacturer advertising is to reduce the cross price elasticity between products make one s own and rivals products appear to be less substitutable in the eyes of consumers conventional wisdom also suggests that all else being equal retailers will be able to obtain better terms of trade from manufacturers the more substitutable are the manufacturers products it follows that retailers should be opposed to advertising that has the effect of reducing cross price elasticities and thus that manufacturer advertising can be a source of channel conflict we show that these conventional wisdoms need not hold when only some consumers are exposed to the advertising messages using a hotelling model of demand we show that 1 manufacturers can be worse off from advertising that reduces the cross price elasticities between their products 2 channel conflict need not arise even when the sole purpose of advertising is to affect cross price elasticities and 3 depending on its bargaining power a retailer can be better off when the manufacturers products are perceived to be less substitutable

rent income distribution and growth in an underdeveloped agrarian economy abstract a model is constructed to examine the determination of income distribution in an underdeveloped agrarian economy such as the indian one in which both rich capitalist farmers and poor subsistence farmers rent in land from landlords it is used to analyse the growth and income distributional consequences of different kinds of institutional and technological changes the possibilities of the growth of capitalism and the impact of industrial expansion

value of information in capacitated supply chains we incorporate information flow between a supplier and a retailer in a two echelon model that captures the capacitated setting of a typical supply chain we consider three situations 1 a traditional model where there is no information to the supplier prior to a demand to him except for past data 2 the supplier knows the s s policy used by the retailer as well as the end item demand distribution and 3 the supplier has full information about the state of the retailer order up to policies continue to be optimal for models with information flow for the finite horizon the infinite horizon discounted and the infinite horizon average cost cases study of these three models enables us to understand the relationships between capacity inventory and information at the supplier level as well as how they are affected by the retailer s s s values and end item demand distribution we estimate the savings at the supplier due to information flow and study when information is most beneficial

the structuralist explanation in the theory of inflation abstract this paper argues that three main elements form the basis of both the latin american and the european branches of the structuralist school of inflation theory these elements are 1 relative prices that change when economic structure changes 2 downward inflexibility of some money prices and 3 a passive money supply closing the deflationary gap caused by price increases the only difference between the two branches is what they consider to be the main cause of structural change the object of this paper is to show that models worked out by latin american structuralists during the 1960s and models developed recently by european structuralists have a common reduced form and describe similar inflationary processes

a note on the optimal rate of growth of international reserves the current reform of the international monetary system rests on the conception that the nominal quantity of external reserves taken in the aggregate must provide the flexible element in the adjustment between the supply of and the demand for real international liquidity carried to its logical conclusion this principle implies the adoption of a passive money system in the international sphere the nominal quantity of money ceases to be an exogenous datum to which prices and wages must conform and becomes a dependent variable having an equilibrium level 1 the new reserve assets are destined to satisfy the long run needs for reserve growth 2 yet as is well known the evaluation of such needs presents appreciable difficulties in itself this estimation problem is not new it was explicitly discussed in the report of the gold delegation appointed in 1929 to examine the trends in the gold demand and supply the method used by the delegation is worth recalling it is based upon the double assumption that 1 the monetary demand for gold is proportional to the quantity of money and 2 the demand for money is proportional to the aggregate value of transactions the second part of this hypothesis reflects obviously the quantity theory in its classical form the first part expresses instead an institutional situation in those years the countries under the gold standard used to maintain by virtue of law or of convention a margin of gold cover against the total amount of notes and of central bank sight liabilities the combination of the two ratios led the delegation to estimate the need for gold reserves as a fixed proportion of the total value of transactions

terms of trade and class conflict in a computable general equilibrium model for mexico a computable general equilibrium model for mexico is constructed in which class conflict over the distribution of the surplus is the principal determinant of the terms of trade the model consists of seven social classes and eight productive sectors classes are distinguished as fundamental or subsumed according to whether their incomes are primarily determined by conscious class struggle or by the resulting system of relative prices flexible prices are assumed to clear markets for which non produced means of production such as agricultural land limit supply while output in the remaining sectors is determined by the level of effective demand for the latter sectors two theories of price formation are compared and are seen to differ radically in their implicit conception of the nature of class conflict a keynes kalecki closure is considered in which prices are determined by a fixed mark up on costs this enables capitalists to protect themselves from incursions on the rate of profit due to labou

information distortion in a supply chain the bullwhip effect this article originally appeared in management science april 1997 volume 43 number 4 pp 546 558 published by the institute of management sciences consider a series of companies in a supply chain each of whom orders from its immediate upstream member in this setting inbound orders from a downstream member serve as a valuable informational input to upstream production and inventory decisions this paper claims that the information transferred in the form of orders tends to be distorted and can misguide upstream members in their inventory and production decisions in particular the variance of orders may be larger than that of sales and distortion tends to increase as one moves upstream a phenomenon termed bullwhip effect this paper analyzes four sources of the bullwhip effect demand signal processing rationing game order batching and price variations actions that can be taken to mitigate the detrimental impact of this distortion are also discussed

economic growth financial evolution and the long run behavior of velocity a general equilibrium model is presented in which buyers and sellers find it increasingly difficult to make private credit arrangements as economic activity spreads into new markets hence the demand for money increases as the structure of production and trade becomes more complex at the same time however financial innovations allow agents to economize on their cash balances together these effects of technological progress account for two empirical regularities the u shaped pattern in velocity and the ever increasing share of productive resources devoted to the private financial sector that are associated with the process of real economic growth

demand signalling and screening in channels of distribution this paper examines two ways channel members at the manufacturing and retail ends deal with asymmetric information in the context of new product introduction a manufacturer who has private information that demand for a new product will be high can differentiate itself from a manufacturer less confident of demand by undertaking high levels of pre launch advertising and offering a high wholesale price a retailer for its part can screen potentially high demand from potentially low demand products by stipulating a take it or leave it slotting allowance the assumption being that the offer will be accepted only by manufacturers confident of sufficient demand to recover the high initial cost of slotting allowances it is shown that manufacturers prefer to signal demand through advance advertising and wholesale price retailers to screen demand through slotting allowances it is shown that unless advance advertising is sufficiently effective slotting allowances yield higher total channel profits and higher social welfare

auctions with endogenous quantity this article studies auctions in which several sellers compete for the right to sell to a market characterized by a negatively sloped demand curve in this environment the quantity traded becomes endogenous this effect leads to three results concerning the outcomes of open versus first price sealed bid auctions first an open auction yields a higher expected price than does sealed bidding second and more important the open auction captures less of the potential gains from trade than does the sealed bid auction third for broad classes of demand curves the efficiency gains from switching to sealed bids from an open auction accrue to both sellers and the buyer so that all concerned parties would agree to the change a direct application of the theory is to procurement the heavy use of sealed bidding in procurement is seen as rational in light of these results auction models with endogenous quantity could be an alternative to price setting oligopoly models for the study of price formation in general for the latter impose strong information requirements on agents and yield only equilibrium price vectors not equilibrium processes for determining prices

how big is the tax advantage to debt this paper uses an option valuation model of the firm to answer the question what magnitude tax advantage to debt is consistent with the range of observed corporate debt ratios we incorporate into the model differential personal tax rates on capital gains and ordinary income we conclude that variations in the magnitude of bankruptcy costs across firms can not by itself account for the simultaneous existence of levered and unlevered firms when it is possible for the value of the underlying assets to jump discretely to zero differences across firms in the probability of this jump can account for the simultaneous existence of levered and unlevered firms moreover if the tax advantage to debt is small the annual rate of return advantage offered by optimal leverage may be so small as to make the firm indifferent about debt policy over a wide range of debt to firm value ratios the observed range of debt to firm value ratios in the u s economy is roughly speaking from zero to 60 percent traditional explanatory models of capital structure have focused on the tradeoff between the tax shield and bankruptcy costs arising from the use of debt finance 2 9 10 18 19 other

agricultural terms of trade and distributional perversities in a neo ricardian model abstract the comparative static effects of a change in terms of trade for the agricultural sector are examined in a two sector neo ricardian model when wages are held constant and intensive rents are earned by owners of the non produced land resource it is possible for a favorable shift in agriculture s terms of trade to lead to a fall in the rate of profit on circulating capital or a decline in the rental rate on land the conditions causing these perverse profit and rental rate responses are shown to depend on the type of high yielding technology available the relevance of the analysis to policy making and investment in the agriculture sector is discussed

macrodynamic adjustment mechanisms in a dual semi industrialized economy abstract the interplay between agriculture and the rest of the economy and the importance of the income distribution have been central to the macroeconomic analyses of semi industrialized economies a macrodynamic model is developed to investigate the adjustment mechanisms in the medium run it is shown how the roles of agriculture and income distribution depend on the macroeconomic situation and how the medium run adjustments may differ from short run effects

debt financing under asymmetric information the authors analyze the optimal design of debt maturity coupon payments and dividend payout restrictions under asymmetric information they show that if the asymmetry of information is concentrated around long term cash flows firms finance with coupon bearing long term debt that partially restricts dividend payments if the asymmetry of information is concentrated around near term cash flows and there exists considerable refinancing risk firms finance with coupon bearing long term debt that does not restrict dividend payments finally if the asymmetry of information is uniformly distributed across dates firms finance with short term debt

research note vertical information sharing in a volatile market when demand is uncertain manufacturers and retailers often have private information on future demand and such information asymmetry impacts strategic interaction in distribution channels in this paper we investigate a channel consisting of a manufacturer and a downstream retailer facing a product market characterized by short product life uncertain demand and price rigidity assuming the firms have asymmetric information about the demand volatility we examine the potential benefits of sharing information and contracts that facilitate such cooperation we conclude that under a wholesale price regime information sharing might not improve channel profits when the retailer underestimates the demand volatility but the manufacturer does not although information sharing is always beneficial under a two part tariff regime it is in general not sufficient to achieve sharing and additional contractual arrangements are necessary the contract types we consider to facilitate sharing are profit sharing and buyback contracts

duopoly information equilibrium cournot and bertrand abstract in a duopoly model where firms have private information about an uncertain linear demand it is shown that if the goods are substitutes not to share information is a dominant strategy for each firm in bertrand cournot competition if the goods are complements the result is reversed furthermore the following welfare results are obtained 1 i with substitutes in cournot competition the market outcome is never optimal with respect to information sharing but it may be optimal in bertrand competition if the products are good substitutes with complements the market outcome is always optimal 2 ii bertrand competition is more efficient than cournot competition 3 iii the private value of information to the firms is always positive but the social value of information is positive in cournot and negative in bertrand competition

information transparency of business to business electronic markets a game theoretic analysis the abundance of transaction data available on the internet tends to make information more transparent in electronic marketplaces in such a transparent environment it becomes easier for suppliers to obtain information that may allow them to infer their rivals costs is this good news or bad news in this study we focus on theinformational effects of business to business b2b exchanges and explore firms incentives to join a b2b exchange that provides an online platform for information transmission we then study the equilibria by developing a game theoretic model under asymmetric information we examine whether the incentives to join a b2b exchange would be different under different competition modes quantity and price different information structures and by varying the nature of the products substitutes and complements our results challenge the information transparency hypothesis i e open sharing of information in electronic markets is beneficial to all participating firms in contrast to the popular belief we show that information transparency could be a double edged sword the individual rationality of participation in the online exchange reflects the tradeoff between information transparency and data confidentiality this may have important implications for the microstructure design e g data access rules of b2b electronic marketplaces

the wage goods constraint on a developing economy theory and evidence abstract in a dual economy the traditional or agricultural sector generally has a relatively low supply response to prices if in addition the real wages of the modern or industrial sector are denominated at least partly in terms of the product of agriculture then agricultural output sets an upper bound on employment in industry such a constraint may be binding in the short run whenever the level of food production is low this is called the wage goods constraint this paper examines the analytics of a wage goods constraint in the framework of a two commodity model of a dual economy with surplus labor where unconstrained industrial output is demand determined the effects of either expansionary or redistributive policy may be quite different and sometimes perverse in a situation where the wage goods constraint is binding next data for the indian economy is used to test the hypothesis that the wage goods constraint was binding in the indian industrial sector between the years 1955 to 1980 the results indicate that this was the case for most of the period

the value of the tax subsidy on risky debt the effect of corporate taxes on the market value of a levered firm continues to be a central issue in recent contributions in finance theory e g miller 1977 deangelo and masulis 1980 kim 1982 modigliani 1982 in these and other studies e g krause and litzenberger 1973 scott 1976 brennan and schwartz 1978 kim 1978 the relationship between market value and capital structure is established by formulating a tax subsidy function that specifies the partial effect of debt on the expected tax savings at the corporate level under the existing u s tax code a working assumption in most of these studies is that both principal and interest are tax deductible this assumption is made in the spirit of the original modigliani and miller 1963 formulation in which debt is taken to be perpetual and riskless indeed it is well known that the tax shield provided by the deduction of principal in a singleperiod framework has the same value as the tax shield from interest deductions in the case of perpetual and riskless debt under this assumption it is shown that in the absence of non debtthis paper examines the relationship between leverage and the value of the firm when non debt related tax shields are available and the corporate tax is levied as an income tax in a previous paper de angelo and masulis argue that in the presence of nondebt related tax shields the relationship between debt and firm value is concave resulting in an interior optimal capital structure when there is a tax induced differential in the cost of corporate debt their result derives from the fact that they assume the payment of debt principal and non debt related depreciation charges are deductible however the former deduction is consistent with a wealth tax while the latter is consistent only with an income tax we show that if the interest alone is deductible the debt firm value function is convex resulting in corner solutions to the capital structure problem the authors wish to thank richard castanias richard green lemma senbet and especially an anonymous referee for helpful comments and richard green and robert dammon for computational assistance

social articulation as a condition for equitable growth abstract a formal model is developed to establish the structural conditions that result in growth being progressive or regressive on the personal distribution of income these conditions include 1 intersectoral investment priorities between wage goods and luxuries and 2 the state of the levels and distribution of incomes which determines the social origin of demand for different sectors of the economy the particular combinations of investment and income structures that result in equalizing social articulation or unequalizing growth social disarticulation are derived we show empirically that the structural conditions that allowed rapid but unequalizing growth in brazil between 1968 and 1977 were those of social disarticulation

a note on social articulation abstract de janvry and sadoulet 1983 present a model of unequalizing growth and the closure rule of the model is discussed in this note it is shown that income distribution in the model is determined by the market clearing mechanism in the wage goods market and how the condition for social articulation is related to the excess demand function on the wage goods market

medium run adjustment under import compression macroeconomic analysis relevant for sub saharan africa abstract the dynamic small open economy model of kouri 1979 is modified to analyze the role of the foreign exchange constraint in import dependent economies typical for sub saharan africa structural adjustment and investment allocation are related to the sectoral balance between traded and protected goods the import compression policy of the region establishes a linkage between the export performance of the traded sector and the capacity utilization of the protected sector it is shown that the relationship implies possible contractionary effects of demand expansion since exports are crowded out and the import capacity is reduced a destabilizing downward growth spiral may follow policies modifying the excessive demand and the import dependency seem necessary to turn contraction into growth

growth distribution and sectoral heterogeneity reading the kaleckians in latin america abstract the aim of this paper is to explore a parallelism between two episodes in the history of economic thought in order to suggest that the interaction between them can contribute to the research on kaleckian growth and distribution models first a brief summary of the theoretical development from steindl s stagnationist claims to the debate about demand regimes is offered then a more detailed account is provided of the latin american debate that began with furtado s stagnationist claims and resulted in the formulation of models of social articulation and disarticulation finally an analytical classification of kaleckian and latin american growth and distribution models is provided indicating the way in which sectoral heterogeneity and demand composition can act as a plausible link between growth and distribution

the informational role of commodity prices in formulating monetary policy a reexamination abstract this paper reexamines the issue of whether commodity prices provide useful information for formulating monetary policy through the application of a recent development in time series methodology developed by toda and yamamoto j econometrics 66 1995 225 250 we found that commodity prices signal the future direction of the economy

north south interaction and commod control a simple model of north south interaction is presented with a keynesian north producing industrial goods and a classical south producing corn if the terms of trade clear the corn market then commodity price stabilisation can only slightly increase the average value of northern real consumption but if there is real wage resistance in the north then output deflation in the north is necessary to avoid inflationary pressure whenever the terms of trade tend to turn against the north commodity price stabilisation could in such circumstances greatly improve northern welfare the paper also examines whether fiscal policy in the north instead of commodity price stabilisation could provide equally large improvements in northern welfare

auctions and bidding a primer maybe the contractor was right to think bid jobs are different but it is more likely that he suffered from too simple a view of what is involved in preparing a competitive bid our analysis will show that even an experienced estimator working in familiar terrain can lose money if he doesn t understand the subtleties of competitive bidding the phenomenon experienced by the painting contractor known as the winner s curse is just one of the surprising and puzzling conclusions that have been turned up by modern research into auctions another is the theoretical proposition supported also by some experimental evidence that for example a sealed bid treasury bill auction in which each buyer pays a price equal to the highest rejected bid would yield more revenue to the treasury than the current procedure in which the winning bidder pays the seemingly higher amount equal to his own bid there are also subtle results that demonstrate the equivalence of such apparently different institutions as the standard sealed bid auction in which the auctioneer seller sells the goods to the highest bidder for a price equal to his bid and the dutch auction in which the auctioneer seller begins by asking a high price and gradually lowers the price until

capacity and competition empirical evidence on uk panel data following d kreps and j scheinkman 1983 it is common to view the difference between cournot and bertrand competition as depending on production capacity bertrand undercutting is only feasible if firms have capacity to serve the market gained if firms are capacity constrained the cournot model is more appropriate this paper tests the capacity and competition idea by looking at the relationship between profits and capacity constraints if capacity constrained firms become more cournot like it should be positive using survey data on capacity constraints merged into a panel industry data set for the united kingdom the authors find a robust positive relationship copyright 1994 by blackwell publishing ltd

an east asian model of economic development japan taiwan and south korea the east asian model of economic development focuses on 5 shared characteristics that seem significant in the contemporary economic development of japan taiwan and korea they are economic characteristics and include 1 high investment ratios 2 small public sectors 3 competitive labor markets 4 export expansion and 5 government intervention in the economy large and efficient investments in human capital and well developed capacities to absorb new technology are 2 other economic features shared by the three one could add overcrowding high man land ratios and scarcity of natural resources though these are handicaps rather than sources of economic strength it is possible however that virtue springs from necessity and that ample arable land or abundant natural resources mainly permit governments to postpone the difficult decisions needed to promote development rather than provide the wherewithal needed to finance development other noneconomic characteristics of the three such as ethnic and linguistic homogeneity relatively compact geography manageable population size and the confucian tradition have not been considered in the model even though they have undoubtedly influenced labor productivity savings behavior and other aspects of economic performance whether the east asian model ought to be followed depends on whether current and foreseeable circumstances are sufficiently like those faced by the three to justify using the same policies that they used applicability of the east asian model should also depend on whether the strategy employed by the three has been responsible for their economic success 2 aspects of the east asian models policy features are noteworthy 1 the policies typically work by influencing rather than replacing private market decisions and 2 the public expects government to intervene to influence economic growth

on the relevance of debt maturity structure in this paper we present a tax induced framework to analyze debt maturity problems we show that under some modifications of the existing u s tax code debt maturity is irrelevant even in the presence of taxes and bankruptcy costs that yield an optimal capital structure if this restrictive structure is relaxed and assuming the miller 15 equilibrium does not prevail tax reasons would usually imply the existence of an optimal debt maturity structure if there exists a gain from leverage then an increasing term structure of interest rates adjusted for default risk results in long term debt being optimal a decreasing term structure under similar circumstances renders short term debt optimal in the absence of agency costs a miller 15 type result emerges at equilibrium and irrelevance prevails we also argue that agency costs could again reverse the irrelevance and imply a firm specific optimal debt maturity structure there has been extensive discussion in the literature concerning the existence of an optimal debt maturity structure kraus 13 states without proof that efficient capital markets preclude the existence of an optimal debt maturity stiglitz 20 demonstrates the irrelevance of debt maturity but in an economic environment in which the entire financing decision is irrelevant due to the absence of taxes and bankruptcy costs in contrast morris 16 argues that the issuance of short term debt can reduce the risk to stockholders and thereby increase equity value if the covariance between the net operating income and future interest rates is positive this result by morris is obtained even in the absence of taxes and when there is no probability of default the discrepancy between morris and stiglitz arises because morris uses the bogue and roll 31 multiperiod capital asset pricing model to incorporate uncertain future interest rates which implicitly assumes that investors cannot diversify away intertem

foodgrain stocks and macrodynamic adjustment mechanisms in a dual semi industrialized economy abstract in this note we proceed to a macroeconomic analysis of speculative foodgrain stocks and of partial food price stabilization policies in a dual semi industrialized economy of the type proposed by rattso 1989 we adopt a dynamic perspective which allows us to highlight the medium run effects on industrial employment of their interaction with wage indexation in industry

the relation between risk and optimal debt maturity and the value of leverage this paper considers the capital structure and debt maturity choice for a value maximizing corporation in the model interest expense is tax deductible bankruptcy is costly and debt is fairly priced at issue in contrast to the results of kane marcus and mcdonald 1985 optimal debt maturity does not always approach zero in the absence of transaction costs and is increasing in the volatility of the assets of the firm the model predicts a positive association between the value of leverage and total risk in some circumstances

relative prices and money a vector autoregression on brazilian data recent data on brazilian agricultural prices industrial prices and money supply are analyzed in a vector autoregression the empirical findings show strong one way granger type causality from money supply to agricultural prices while feedback is observed between industrial prices and money supply under the usual monetarist ordering of contemporaneous innovation covariance agricultural prices do not adjust faster than industrial prices to a shock in the money supply

debt policy and the rate of return premium to leverage equilibrium in the market for real assets requires that the price of those assets be bid up to reflect the tax shields they can offer to levered firms thus there must be an equality between the market values of real assets and the values of optimally levered firms the standard measure of the advantage to leverage compares the values of levered and unlevered assets and can be misleading and difficult to interpret we show that a meaningful measure of the advantage to debt is the extra rate of return net of a market premium for bankruptcy risk earned by a levered firm relative to an otherwise identical unlevered firm we construct an option valuation model to calculate such a measure and present extensive simulation results we use this model to compute optimal debt maturities show how this approach can be used for capital budgeting and discuss its implications for the comparison of bankruptcy costs versus tax shields

exchange rate management and stabilization policies in developing countries abstract we outline three channels via which a devaluation has a direct contractionaly impact on the aggregate supply side of the economy local currency costs of intermediate imports wage indexing in the presence of food imports and reduced volume of real credit to firms contractionary effects via the supply side are more damaging than krugman taylor effects via aggregate demand since a cut in aggregate supply leads to upward pressure on inflation while a cut in aggregate demand tends to abate inflation upward pressure on inflation may over time threaten the increase in competitiveness a nominal devaluation also intends to achieve we also discuss the implications of a substantial foreign debt we demonstrate that a successful devaluation raises the real in terms of domestic goods debt service burden causing a krugman taylor like contractionary effect on aggregate demand we then analyse the effects of a preannounced slowdown of the rate of depreciation our results of course do not imply that a devaluation should never be considered they do suggest however that a devaluation is likely to be an ineffective tool for demand management since it may cut aggregate supply as much or more in the short run

sectoral balance in development a survey abstract this paper surveys the literature on sectoral balance to see how sectoral imbalances can retard economic development it examines definitions of sectors and balance provides background facts theories and planning tools reviews the debate on balanced growth and surveys two sector models of agriculture industry consumption investment and luxury basics interaction the open economy and the role of service nonmarket and unproductive sectors it argues that the examination of important development issues requires multisectoral analysis incorporating the insights of several of these models and that alternative models with different structural characteristics deserve attention

increasing returns and the foundations of unemployment theory current approaches to macroeconomic theory divide roughly into two basic schools of thought one approach typically associated with rational expectations views the economy as basically at or near walrasian market clearing equilibrium in which case it becomes very difficult to explain away convincingly the undeniable persistence at times of involuntary unemployment another approach views the underemployed economy as being in a state of temporary fixed price disequilibrium in which case aside from having to repress suspicions that the essence of effective demand failure might not have to do with prices fixed at wrong values there is a lot of rationalising to be done about why profitable adjustments are so slow this paper argues that something like an internally consistent theory of steady state involuntary unemployment is possible and even plausible the cornerstone of this third approach is increasing returns to scale which blocks unemployed agents from breaking out of a low level equilibrium trap unless there is overall coordination or stimulation a simple model is presented which contains the basic ideas

an eclectic model of recent ldc macroeconomic policy analyses summary after decades of neglect there has been a growing concern in the 1970s with the theoretical and econometric analysis of short run macroeconomic policy in ldcs this paper attempts an eclectic synthesis of the recent work on this subject developing a standard ldc model of aggregate demand and aggregate supply that can be readily compared with the textbook models for advanced economies comparative static analyses of monetary policy fiscal policy devaluation and wages policy are conducted and it is shown that the standard macropolicy prescriptions often produce non standard results monetary restriction and devaluation are particularly suspect as they are likely to produce both recession and price rises

new developments in trade theory and ldcs abstract this paper surveys the new literature on international trade relevant to the north south controversy in the first part two types of north south models are considered the unequal exchange theory of lewis and emmanuel and the models of dynamic interaction of findlay taylor and others the analysis focuses on the determinants of growth the terms of trade and relative employment in the world economy in the second part the paper reviews the empirical literature on south north and south south trade and the theories of north south technological gaps intra industry trade and external economies finally we analyze the literature on exports and economic growth and the neo classical keynesian and disequilibrium approaches to the theory of import controls

competition and cooperation in marketing channel choice theory and application this paper discusses the problem of choosing a vertical marketing channel in a product differentiated duopolistic market firms choose product price and the form of the marketing channel to maximize profits it is shown that integration of the marketing function results in greater price competition and lower prices than does the use of independent marketing middlemen the profitability of reducing price competition by using such middlemen is investigated two hypotheses that integration is negatively associated with the products substitutability and that symmetric channel structures are stable are tested in a preliminary way and supported with survey data from the international semiconductor industry