global liquidity through the lens of monetary aggregates this paper examines how the financial activities of non financial corporations nfcs in international markets potentially affects domestic monetary aggregates and financial conditions monetary aggregates reflect in part the activities of nfcs who channel capital market financing into the domestic banking system thereby influencing funding conditions and credit availability periods of capital inflows are also those when the domestic currency is appreciating and such periods of rapid exchange rate appreciation coincide with increases in the central bank s foreign exchange reserves increasing the stock of narrow money the paper examines economic significance of cross country panel data on monetary aggregates and other measures of non core bank liabilities non core liabilities that reflect the activities of nfcs reflect broad credit conditions and predict global trade and growth

the effect of political risk on the forward exchange bias the case of elections abstract the unsuccesful search for explanations of the forward bias has concentrated on variables suggested by traditional models of risk political news although important to foreign exchange traders has not been considered as a determinant of the forward bias i present a model in which the forward bias changes when the governing party changes elections in major industrial countries provide a natural test of the model the forward bias changed as predicted after half of the 13 elections in canada france the united kingdom and the united states between 1973 and 1985 politics provides useful information for foreign exchange traders which economists should not ignore

the financial crisis and the geography of wealth transfers abstract this paper studies the geography of wealth transfers between 2007q4 and 2008q4 at the height of the global financial crisis we construct valuation changes on bilateral external positions in equity direct investment and portfolio debt to measure who benefited and who lost on their external exposure we find a very diverse set of fortunes governed by the structure of countries external portfolios in particular we are able to relate the gains and losses on debt portfolios to the country s exposure to abs abcp conduits and the extent of dollar shortage

implementing marketable emissions permits the environmental protection agency is introducing bubbles offsets and banks as a way of controlling pollution with market incentives to obtain standards for each source and guide the reallocation of emissions the new method is not a true market because polluters must go through the permitting procedure in order to trade emission allowances this study examines whether an efficient market without source by source review is feasible it considers the importance of enough participants competitiveness sensitivity to geographic emission patterns and trading flexibility to sustain marketable permits the design features that address these problems are permit life market definition market initiation and market operation a stable permit market eliminates some of the uncertainties in decision making because it allows firms to select a preferred level of risk 9 references dck

international monetary relations taking finance seriously in our book global capital markets integration crisis and growth we traced out the evolution of the international monetary system using the framework of the international monetary trilemma countries can enjoy at most two from the set exchange rate stability open capital markets and domestic monetary autonomy the events of the past decade or more highlight the further complications for this framework posed by financial stability issues here we update and qualify our prior analysis drawing on recent experience and research under the classical gold standard scant attention was paid to macro management either to stabilize output and employment or to ensure financial stability the interwar years highlighted the changing demands for modern central bank interventions in the economy financial instability followed by wwii left a world with sharply constricted financial markets and little private cross border capital mobility due to this historical accident the bretton woods system agreed in 1944 focused not at all on financial stability and focused on issues like adjustment exchange rate misalignment and international liquidity defined in terms of official not private capital account transactions post 1970s floating rates permitted but did not require liberalization of the capital account but the political equilibrium had shifted in favor of financial interests signaled by the push toward european integration and the later reform process in emerging markets starting in the 1990s this development however opened the door once again to domestic financial crises and their international transmission countries now become more susceptible to a new species of capital account crises fueled by bank and bond lending and its sudden withdrawal these developments in fact made evident a different financial trilemma countries can pick at most two from financial stability open capital markets and autonomy over domestic financial policy we distill the main lessons as to the interactions between the monetary and financial trilemmas and policies that could best address the resulting weaknesses

breaking free of the triple coincidence in international finance the traditional approach to international finance is to view capital flows as the financial counterpart to savings and investment decisions assuming further that the gdp boundary defines both the decision making unit and the currency area this triple coincidence of gdp area decision making unit and currency area is an elegant simplification but misleads when financial flows are important in their own right first the neglect of gross flows when only net flows are considered can lead to misdiagnoses of financial vulnerability second inattention to the effects of international currencies may lead to erroneous conclusions on exchange rate adjustment third sectoral differences between corporate and official sector positions can distort welfare conclusions on the consequences of currency depreciation as macroeconomic risks may be underestimated this paper illustrates the pitfalls of the triple coincidence through a series of examples from the global financial system in recent years and examines alternative analytical frameworks based on balance sheets as the unit of analysis

causes of capital flows in developing countries abstract this paper investigates the causes of capital flows in four developing countries mexico chile korea and malaysia using structural decomposition analysis it finds that the recent resurgence in capital movements is largely due to external reasons such as decreases in the world interest rate or recession in industrial countries domestic factors including country specific productivity shocks and demand shocks are relatively less important another interesting finding is that the fundamental causes of capital flows differ little across the countries under study these results suggest that developing countries need to pay attention to the financial arrangements associated with capital flows and to exchange rate policy as well as macroeconomic fundamentals to avoid financial crises in a world of increased capital mobility

a key currency view of global imbalances abstract this study divides the world into currency zones according to the co movement of each currency with the key currencies the dollar zone groups economies that produce well over half of global gdp the euro zone now includes almost all of europe and some commodity producers but remains less than half the size of the dollar zone the dollar zone share has shown striking stability despite big shifts across zones over time these include the demise of the sterling zone and the expansion of the dm euro from northwestern europe to europe and beyond global imbalances look very different from a currency perspective in the 2000s the dollar zone s current account improved and became more or less balanced around the time of the global financial crisis gfc even as the us current account plumbed all time lows the dollar zone s net international investment position was also balanced around the time of the gfc thus neither flow nor stock readings on the dollar zone support widespread predictions in the early 2000s of an imminent dollar crash in fact most of the secular widening of current accounts occurred within currency zones where by construction investors bear relatively limited currency risk our account of the dollar s dominance rests not on the us economy s size but rather on the size of the zone with limited currency risk vis a vis the dollar in such a world the rise of another large economy poses the question not of relative size but rather of re alignment of third currencies what if the renminbi becomes a key currency alongside the dollar and the euro already some emerging market currencies are co moving with the renminbi against the dollar on current evidence a renminbi zone would shrink the dollar zone and widen its current account deficit

unemployment and the democratic electoral advantage this article calls into question the conventional wisdom that incumbent parties are rewarded when unemployment is low and punished when it is high using county level data on unemployment and election returns for 175 midterm gubernatorial elections and 4 presidential elections from 1994 to 2010 the analysis finds that unemployment and the democratic vote for president and governor move together other things being equal higher unemployment increases the vote shares of democratic candidates the effect is greatest when republicans are the incumbent party but democrats benefit from unemployment even when they are in control the explanation for these findings is that unemployment is a partisan issue for voters not a valence issue and that the democratic party owns unemployment when unemployment is high or rising democratic candidates can successfully convince voters that they are the party best able to solve the problem

the dual political economy of taxes and tradable permits abstract the widely accepted difference in the political economy of taxes and tradable permits results from overly simple models a more general model shows that the distributional impacts driving the political economy of grandfathered permits can be similar for both policies

rough and lonely road to prosperity a reexamination of the sources of growth in africa using bayesian model averaging this paper takes a fresh look at africa s growth experience by using the bayesian model averaging bma methodology bma enables us to consider a large number of potential explanatory variables and sort out which of these variable can effectively explain africa s growth experience posterior coefficient estimates reveal that key engines of growth in africa are substantially different from those in the rest of the world more precisely it is shown that mining primary exports and initial primary education exerted differential effect on african growth these results are examined in relation to the existing literature copyright 2008 john wiley sons ltd

a comparison of two marketable discharge permits systems abstract this paper is an extension of a krupnick w oates and e van de verg j environ econom management10 233 247 1983 their proposed permit system is shown to be formally equivalent to w d montgomery s j econom theory5 395 418 1972 pollution permit system under perfect competition however under noncompetitive assumptions the two systems function differently while montgomery s system may lead to large transaction costs polluters under krupnick et al s pollution offset system can be free riders benefiting from the transactions of others finally some empirical evidence suggests that the pollution offset system may be the most promising but only after several conditions are satisfied

the effect of unconventional monetary policy on cross border bank loans evidence from an emerging market abstract we analyze the impact of quantitative easing by the federal reserve european central bank and bank of england on cross border credit flows relying on comprehensive loan level data we find that fed qe strongly boosts cross border credit granted to turkish banks by banks located in the us euro area and uk while ecb and boe qes work only moderately through banks in the ea and uk respectively in general qe works at short maturities across bank locations and loan currencies more strongly for weaker lenders and borrowers and may have resulted in maturity mismatches in turkish banks searching for yield 99 words

political business cycles and macroeconomic credibility a survey there is clear evidence that government popularity and election performance is affected in part by economic performance suggesting that governments may manipulate the economy to political advantage simple models incorporating adaptive expectations which allowed the government to exploit this relationship were developed in the 1970s but fell out of fashion with the advent of new classical economics however modern theories of the political business cycle which are closely related to the macroeconomic policy game literature assume rational expectations and lead to forms of political business cycle driven by the existence of uncertainty of one type or another the international evidence suggests that some aspects of the theories apply although definitive conclusions are as we might expect hard to come by

testing the satisficing version of the political business cycle 1905 1984 this paper develops a test of the satisficing version of the political business cycle previous tests have focused on maximizing models of political behavior and are not sufficiently general to test for satisficing behavior using annual u s data for the period 1905 to 1984 we find evidence supporting the satisficing version of the political business cycle model but we reject the maximizing version in accordance with the satisficing hypothesis we find that increasing inflation or unemployment and decreasing monetary base growth in the third year of a presidential term are followed typically by reversals during the election year

foreign portfolio investors before and during a crisis different categories of foreign portfolio investors in korea have differences as well as similarities in their trading behavior before and during the currency crisis first non resident institutional investors are always positive feedback traders whereas resident investors were negative feedback contrarian traders before the crisis but switch to be positive feedback traders during the crisis second individual investors herd significantly more than institutional investors non resident institutional as well individual investors herd significantly more than their resident counterparts third differences in the western and korean news coverage are correlated with differences in net selling by non resident investors relative to resident investors

partisan views on the economy in this paper it is argued that political parties may have incentives to adopt a partisan view on the working of the economic system our approach is based on a dynamical spatial voting model in which political parties are policy oriented this model revolves around two interrelated issues x and y the policy maker sets x directly there exist two views on the relationship between x and y model uncertainty confronts policy makers with the problem of the selection of a model to base their actions on we show that if voters have imperfect information about the working of the economic system that model selection contains a strategic element policy makers are inclined to adopt a view on the working of the economic system which fits in with their preferences

mutual funds flows and the geography of contagion abstract this paper studies the dynamics and geography of investments made by international mutual funds located in advanced markets i identify precise global and regional dynamics in equity and bond flows very few countries receive or lose funding in isolation i also find strong evidence of global contagion when financial conditions in developed markets change emerging markets funding is heavily affected i illustrate this finding by deriving contagion maps showing where contagion spreads and with what intensity in general the results suggest that push effects from advanced market investors affect massively developing countries and expose them to sudden stops and surges

will there be a dollar crisis almost everyone believes that the us current account deficit must eventually end and that this end will involve dollar depreciation however many believe that this depreciation will take place gradually this paper shows that any process of gradual dollar decline fast enough to prevent the accumulation of implausible levels of us external debt would impose capital losses on investors much larger than they currently expect as a result there will at some point have to be a wile e coyote moment a point at which expectations are revised and the dollar drops sharply it is much less clear however whether this crisis will produce macroeconomic problems paul krugman

partisanship theory macroeconomic outcomes and endogenous elections recently there has been a surge of interest in partisanship theories of macroeconomic political interaction unlike political business cycle theory in which economic policy is motivated only by reelection concerns partisanship theory maintains that policy is motivated along ideological lines political parties differ with respect to economic policy and consequently economic performance may differ as well indeed not only is there evidence that political parties in the united states have quite different policy priorities but that this difference in policy priorities is translated into differences in economic outcomes 2

benchmarks for net international investment positions abstract applied analysis aimed at assessing which value of the niip is appropriate for a given country is relatively scarce and the few existing papers on the topic estimate one size fits all niip benchmarks e g catao and milesi ferretti 2014 this paper estimates country specific niip benchmarks on a sample of 65 advanced and emerging economies according to two different criteria consistency with economic fundamentals niip norms obtained as cumulated current account norms and prudence against the risk of external crises niip prudential thresholds obtained as the threshold of the niip variable interacted with relative income per capita that maximises signal power in predicting external crises the median for the country specific niip norms is around 17 of gdp while the median for prudential threshold is about 44 the two benchmarks are negatively correlated across countries highlighting a tension between factors underpinning the scope for external borrowing and debt tolerance gaps between actual and niip benchmarks are highly persistent but help predicting subsequent medium term niip changes better than the niip level thus confirming the usefulness of country specific reference values the adjustment of the niip in response to niip gaps is asymmetric with a significant adjustment limited to negative gaps with the exception of countries with a positive net position in foreign currency

equity and bond flows to latin america and asia the role of global and country factors abstract this paper investigates the factors motivating the large capital flows to a number of developing countries in recent years we use monthly us capital flows to nine latin american and nine asian countries to analyze the behavior of bond and equity flows employing a panel data approach we find that although global factors the drop in us interest rates and the slowdown in us industrial production are important in explaining capital inflows country specific developments are at least as important especially for asia we also find that equity flows are more sensitive than bond flows to global factors but that bond flows are generally more sensitive to a country s credit rating and secondary market debt price

seller incentive properties of epa s emission trading auction abstract the new clean air act amendments instruct the environmental protection agency epa to conduct annual sealed bid offer auctions of emission allowances the auction pricing rules are discriminative and sellers with the lowest asking prices receive the highest bids this paper assesses the seller incentives of this auction and demonstrates that the auction rules cause sellers to choose asking prices that under reveal their cost of emission control furthermore increasing the number of sellers intensifies this misrepresentation if the number of buyers remains fixed the epa s rules can therefore generate significantly biased price signals and reduce the efficiency of the allowance trading market

paying for pollution permits and charges tradeable emission permits are becoming an increasingly important instrument for controlling emissions for a variety of reasons emission permits are often allocated gratis conferring a windfall gain on the first generation of permit holders this paper examines how a regulator may capture this rent four different methods of rent capture profit output and input charges and an emission permit rental charge are compared with respect to their effects on efficiency and the relative burden placed on cleaner and dirtier firms in addition to generating revenue for the regulator certain charges coupled with emission permits may result in a better instrument than permits alone

u s interest groups prefer emission trading a new perspective if there is to be environmental regulation what kind of regulation would the main interest groups then prefer this political distortion must be taken into account when designing future environmental regulation such as co2 regulation the three main interest groups in the u s private business environmentalist groups and the electricity sector prefer a grandfathered permit market business is attracted by this solution because free initial distribution of permits both favours existing sources financially and furthermore creates a barrier to entry for new firms environmentalist groups have changed attitudes and promote the idea too as a way of negotiating higher target reduction levels with industry to maintain voluntary contributions from their members finally electric utilities prefer a grandfathered permit market and this step towards less planned economy may be explained by the rise of competition in the u s electricity sector therefore it is suggested that a grandfathered permit market is a more effective policy than a tax in relation to organized interests such as industry electric utilities and environmental organizations in perspective the grandfathered permit market may be mixed with the use of taxes in the case of co2 regulation for example taxes may be applied to badly organized polluters such as households and the transport sector because their lobbying power is weak

non core bank liabilities and financial vulnerability a lending boom is reflected in the composition of bank liabilities when traditional retail deposits core liabilities cannot keep pace with asset growth and banks turn to other funding sources non core liabilities to finance their lending we formulate a model of credit supply as the flip side of a credit risk model where a large stock of non core liabilities serves as an indicator of the erosion of risk premiums and hence of vulnerability to a crisis we find supporting empirical evidence in a panel probit study of emerging and developing economies

home bias in open economy financial macroeconomics standard theory would predict that investors hold a well diversified portfolio of equities across the world but despite the process of financial globalization investors still hold a disproportionate share of local equities in their portfolio the equity home bias french and poterba 1991 we review the various explanations of this puzzling phenomenon in the context of recent developments in macroeconomic modelling that have allowed to incorporate sophisticated international portfolio choices in standard two country general equilibrium models we refer to this literature as open economy financial macroeconomics we focus on three broad classes of explanations i hedging motives in frictionless financial markets real exchange rate and non tradable income risk ii asset trade costs in international financial markets such as transaction costs differences in tax treatments between national and foreign assets iii informational frictions and behavioural biases these recent developments raise the need for new portfolio facts beyond the equity home bias and we will present some new evidence on cross border asset holdings across different types of assets equities bonds and bank lending we also present some new micro data on institutional holdings of equity at the fund level these data should inform macroeconomic modelling of the open economy and a growing literature of models of delegated investment

economic prescriptions for environmental problems how the patient followed the doctor s orders o ne of the dangers with ivory tower theorizing is that it is easy to lose sight of the actual set of problems which need to be solved and the range of potential solutions as one who frequently engages in this exercise i can attest to this fact in my view this loss of sight has become increasingly evident in the theoretical structure underlying environmental economics which often emphasizes elegance at the expense of realism in this paper i will argue that both normative and positive theorizing could greatly benefit from a careful examination of the results of recent innovative approaches to environmental management the particular set of policies examined here involves two tools which have received widespread support from the economics community marketable permits and emission charges pigou 1932 dales 1968 kneese and schultze 1975 both tools represent ways to induce businesses to search for lower cost methods of achieving environmental standards they stand in stark contrast to the predominant command and control approach in which a regulator specifies the technology a firm must use to comply with regulations under highly restrictive conditions it can be shown that both of the economic approaches share the desirable feature that any gains in environmental quality will be obtained at the lowest possible cost baumol and oates 1975 until the 1960s these tools only existed on blackboards and in academic journals as products of the fertile imaginations of academics however some countries have recently begun to explore using these tools as part of a broader strategy for managing environmental problems

dissecting the cycle a methodological investigation following burns and mitchell we define the cycle as a pattern in the level of aggregate economic activity an algorithm to locate turning points is developed as is a new measure of pro cyclicality a link between turning points and the moments of the series is established thereby providing the statistical foundation that burns and mitchell s work lacked using these tools we are able to dissect cycles in terms of the contributions made by trend growth volatility serial correlation and non linear effects we dissect several models and find little evidence that certain non linear effects are important to the nature of business cycles

financial globalization and monetary policy abstract recent data show substantial increases in the size of gross external asset and liability positions the implications of these developments for optimal conduct of monetary policy are analyzed in a standard open economy model which is augmented to allow for endogenous portfolio choice the model shows that monetary policy takes on new importance due to its impact on nominal asset returns nevertheless the case for price stability as an optimal monetary rule remains in fact it is reinforced even without nominal price rigidities price stability is optimal because it enhances the risk sharing properties of nominal bonds

auctions and alternative procedures for allocating pollution rights this paper considers two different types of auctions which the government could use to sell discharge rights 1 an auction where rights are sold for a single clearing price and 2 a special type of discriminating auction that discourages strategic manipulation of bids by individual dischargers based on both theoretical and practical considerations there appears to be a fundamental trade off between reducing the financial burden of rights purchases and eliminating the incentives for strategic behavior very few discharges in either case study would have lower expenses under government sales of rights than under uniform treatment the simulations also suggest that there may be opportunities for strategic behavior under nonincentive compatible procedures because of small numbers of dischargers despite its problems with respect to incentive compatibility the right allocation approach of free distribution followed by exchange may offer the most desirable package of features this approach can yield dischargers savings over the expenses of present uniform regulations as well as provide incentives for efficient allocation of treatment efforts 25 references 1 figure 5 tables

voting and economic factors in french elections for the european parliament this article builds and estimates several econometric models that explain and forecast the outcomes of the french elections for the european parliament these models show the influence of the change in the local unemployment rate to explain the vote for the moderate left and the moderate right in the french elections for the european parliament these models appear to be accurate in forecasting the elections of the past and their behavior for the 2009 french election for the european parliament is satisfactory

grey power and the economy aging and inflation across advanced economies what explains the cross national variation in inflation rates across countries in contrast to most literature which emphasizes the role of ideas and institutions this article focuses on electoral politics and argues that aging leads to lower inflation rates countries with a larger share of elderly exhibit lower inflation because older people are both more inflation averse and politically powerful forcing parties seeking their votes to pursue lower inflation logistic regression analysis of survey data confirms that older people are more inflation averse and more likely to punish incumbents at the ballot box for inflation panel data regression analysis shows that social democratic parties have more economically orthodox manifestos in european countries with more elderly people and that the share of elderly is negatively correlated with inflation in both a sample of 21 advanced economies and a larger sample of 175 countries aging therefore pushes governments to pursue lower inflation

welfare consequences of emission credit trading programs abstract the welfare consequences of moving from a command and control approach to pollution control to an emission credit trading program that attains the same environmental quality are shown to depend on the competitiveness of the output markets in which polluting firms compete if the output markets are competitive then the introduction of trading increases aggregate welfare in contrast if the output markets in which these firms participate are not competitive then the adoption of an emission credit trading program may reduce social welfare this is so even if emission credit markets are perfectly competitive

taxes versus tradable discharge permits a review in the light of the u s and european experience the u s and west european environmental protection programs have incorporated different economic instruments for controlling pollution the u s has made extensive use of tradable permits of several forms but has never used direct pollution taxes the countries of the european community have long used an array of pollution taxes but have never used tradable permits a review and critique of these experiences and an analysis of the attributes of taxes and tradable permits seeks identify the strengths and weaknesses of each instrument and to provide guidelines for the successful implementation of each system

environmental problems and policy in the single european market the paper analyzes the direct and indirect environmental impacts of the completion of the single european market both internally and with respect to the rest of the world moreover the principles of environmental policy are described the main conclusion is that if the european community and the member states develop effective and efficient policy instruments the positive effects of the completion of the single market could substantially outweigh the negative impacts

costs of alternative policies for the control of nitrogen dioxide in baltimore abstract the costs of meeting alternative one hour nitrogen dioxide standards in baltimore are simulated for alternative pollution control policies applied to the 200 point sources with the largest emissions and compared to a similar study for the chicago area the least cost spatially differentiated policy is found to be quite closely approximated by an effluent fee varying only by source type and a policy that combines features of a regulatory and an economic incentive policy the uniform fee or its market permit analogue results in relatively high costs because of severe overcontrol

do political factors affect stock returns during presidential elections abstract this study investigates whether or not political factors such as government policy and political connections affected stock returns during the 2008 taiwanese presidential election we find that firms that benefitted from were threatened by the proposed three links policy of the winning party experienced positive negative stock returns during the election we use the sensitivities of firms returns to bilateral trade flows between taiwan and china to measure the government policy effect our results show that the effects of political connections weakly exist but they become more significant when the support ratio of the winning party increased in polling data we also find that only the government policy effect holds for different crash risk and corporate governance levels finally investment strategies based on both political factors can generate positive abnormal returns with respect to the fama french three factor model

financial intermediation international risk sharing and reserve currencies abstract i model the equilibrium risk sharing between countries with varying financial development the most financially developed country takes greater risks because its financial intermediaries deal with funding problems better in good times the more financially developed country consumes more and runs a trade deficit financed by the higher financial income that it earns as compensation for taking greater risk during global crises it suffers heavier losses its currency emerges as the reserve currency because it appreciates during crises thus providing a good hedge i provide evidence that financial net worth plays a crucial role in understanding this asymmetric risk sharing jel e44 f14 f32 g01 g15 g21

the long or short of it determinants of foreign currency exposure in external balance sheets abstract a major focus of the recent literature on the determination of optimal portfolios in open economy macroeconomic models has been on the role of currency movements in determining portfolio returns that may hedge various macroeconomic shocks however there is little empirical evidence on the foreign currency exposures that are embedded in international balance sheets using a new database we provide stylized facts concerning the cross country and time series variation in aggregate foreign currency exposure and its various subcomponents in panel estimation we find that richer more open economies take longer foreign currency positions in addition we find that an increase in the propensity for a currency to depreciate during bad times is associated with a longer position in foreign currencies providing a hedge against domestic output fluctuations we view these new stylized facts as informative in their own right and also potentially useful to the burgeoning theoretical literature on the macroeconomics of international portfolios

income distribution in the united states political action has affected postwar income distribution in the united states mainly through policy induced variations in macroeconomic activity and government transfer benefits in proportion to total income we present a small dynamic model of the connections among the partisan balance of power macroeconomic fluctuations transfer spending trends and income distribution outcomes the model is based on the premise that the parties have different distributional goals and it is designed to identify how shifts in party control of the presidency and the strength of the parties in congress have affected the distribution of after tax after transfer income by influencing cyclical economic performance and the flow of resources to transfer programs we therefore extend the partisan theory of macroeconomic policy to the domain of income distribution outcomes

the new wave of private capital inflows push or pull abstract this paper studies the determinants and sustainability of the widespread private capital inflows to middle income countries after 1989 the key question is whether these flows are mostly pulled by attractive domestic conditions or pushed by unfavorable conditions in developed countries an analytical model focusing on country risk is developed and used empirically it is argued that the observed improvement in country creditworthiness is mostly due to the decline in international interest rates and that therefore its importance as a proximate cause does not support the pull interpretation all things considered in most countries the key answer that emerges is push

impacts of alternative allowance allocation methods under a cap and trade program in power sector emission trading is considered to be a cost effective environmental economic instrument for pollution control however the policy design of an emission trading program has a decisive impact on its performance allowance allocation is one of the most important policy design issues in emission trading not only for equity but also for policy performance in this research an artificial market for sulfur dioxide so2 emission trading was constructed by applying an agent based model the performance of the jiangsu so2 emission trading market was examined under different allowance allocation methods and transaction costs the results showed that the market efficiency of emission trading would be affected by the allocation methods when the transaction costs are positive the auction allowance allocation method was more efficient and had the lowest total emission control costs than the other three allocation methods examined however the use of this method will require that power plants pay for all of their allowance and doing so will increase the production costs of power plants on the other hand output based allowance allocation is the second best method

the unemployment rate consequences of partisan monetary policies economists and political scientists have identified several ways in which political motivations and institutional arrangements can affect macroeconomic policymaking one way is described by the political business cycle model 42 37 in which vote seeking politicians manipulate the path of the economy to secure unsustainably favorable conditions at election times variants of this model have been widely tested with limited success a second channel for political impacts comes through partisan policy changes brought about by electoral turnover the pathbreaking work in this literature includes the contributions of hibbs 30 31 32 33 and beck 11 these works have focused on the empirical issue of how unemployment rates vary under democratic and republican presidents in the u s and have found strong support for the proposition that unemployment rates decline under democratic administrations a third phenomenon has been studied primarily by economists and concerns the credibility problem faced by a central bank selecting money growth rates models of the credibility problem 8 21 describe a setting in which the central bank and the public interact by respectively choosing actual and expected money growth rates in a variant of the prisoners dilemma this interaction can result in excessive inflation

domestic credit growth and international capital flows during the pre crisis period europe experienced substantial cross country variation in domestic credit growth and cross border capital flows we investigate the inter relations between domestic credit growth and international capital flows during the period 1993 2008 with a special focus on the boom period of 2003 2008 we establish that domestic credit growth in european countries is strongly related to net debt inflows but not to net equity inflows this pattern also holds for an extended sample of 54 advanced and emerging economies

global implications of national unconventional policies abstract financial integration in the markets for banks assets and liabilities makes balance sheet constraints highly correlated across countries resulting in a high degree of financial and macroeconomic interdependence likewise under financial integration unconventional policies aimed at stabilizing domestic financial and credit conditions could entail large international spillovers therefore stabilization by one country will also benefit other countries reducing incentives to implement credit policies in a classic free riding problem especially when these policies entail domestic costs we show that this outcome can emerge in an open economy model featuring financial intermediaries that face endogenously determined balance sheet constraints

consumers industrialists and the political economy of green taxation co2 taxation in oecd abstract economists have traditionally suggested that politicians should simply impose a uniform tax on harmful emissions as the first best solution prescribes however a detailed analysis of the actual design of green taxes in the oecd reveals that they are differentiated and far from this first best optimal design public choice theory suggests that an important reason that industry as a group in contrast to households is capable of lobbying against green taxation the paper presents empirical findings on co2 taxation within the oecd countries which confirm this theoretical prediction taxes are not uniform and households pay a tax rate which is six times higher than that paid by the industry on average even when tax revenue is fully refunded to industry the potential losers energy intensive firms will lobby harder against it than the potential winners labor intensive firms due to small group advantages the norwegian case confirms these arguments finally it is suggested that a co2 tax may perhaps successfully be applied to households because they tend to be badly organized as such a mix of green taxes in relation to non organized interests and grandfathered permit markets in relation to organized interests should be considered in the search for cost effective and politically feasible instruments

market power and transferable property rights the appeal of using markets as a means of allocating scarce resources stems in large part from the assumption that a market will approximate the competitive ideal when competition is not a foregone conclusion the question naturally arises as to how a firm might manipulate the market to its own advantage this paper analyzes the issue of market power in the context of markets for transferable property rights first a model is developed that explains how a single firm with market power might exercise its influence this is followed by an examination of the model in the context of a particular policy problem the control of particulate sulfates in the los angeles region

key currency status an exorbitant privilege and an extraordinary risk abstract what are the costs and benefits of the dollar s status as the key currency in the international monetary system here we present a calibrated two country model in which all exports are invoiced in the key currency and government bonds denominated in the key currency are held internationally to facilitate trade and as official reserve assets we show that the exorbitant privilege accruing to the key currency country comes from three sources 1 a bond seigniorage that we estimate to be worth about a half a percent of consumption per period to the united states 2 asymmetric responses to exogenous shocks that are worth an additional quarter of a percent of consumption per period and 3 a macroeconomic hegemony in monetary and fiscal policy reflecting the fact that the key currency s policy instruments are more potent but there is also an exorbitant risk to being the key currency country we show that the costs of a potential dumping of key currency bonds are also substantial moreover there appear to be no obvious monetary or fiscal policy responses that would lower the costs significantly

international and domestic collateral constraints in a model of emerging market crises abstract we build a model of emerging markets crises which features two types of collateral constraints firms in a domestic economy have limited borrowing capacity from international investors they also have limited borrowing capacity with respect to each other we study how the presence and changes in these collateral constraints affect financial and real variables a binding international constraint in the aggregate leads to a sharp rise in interest rates and fire sales of domestic assets while limited domestic collateral can lead to wasted international collateral these two collateral constraints can interact in important ways the first is disintermediation a fire sale of domestic assets causes banks to fail in their function of reallocating resources across the economy leading to wasted international collateral the second is a dynamic effect we show that firms in an economy with limited domestic collateral and a binding international collateral constraint will not adequately precaution against adverse shocks increasing the severity of these shocks

the euroization of bank deposits in eastern europe in central eastern and southeastern europe a substantial share of bank deposits are denominated in foreign currency deposit euroization poses key challenges for monetary policy and financial sector supervision on the one hand it limits the effectiveness of monetary policy interventions on the other hand it increases financial sector fragility by exposing banks to currency risk or currency induced credit risk policymakers disagree on whether countries in the region should tackle deposit euroization with dedollarization policies or should rather strive to adopt the euro as their legal tender assessing the potential effectiveness of dedollarization policies requires a clear understanding of which households hold foreign currency deposits and why they do so on the basis of survey data covering 16 375 households in ten countries in 2011 and 2012 we provide a comprehensive household level analysis of deposit euroization in central eastern and southeastern europe we examine how households preferences for and holding of foreign currency deposits are related to individual expectations about monetary conditions and network effects we also examine to what extent monetary expectations and deposit euroization are the legacy of past financial crises or the outflow of current policies and institutions in the region our findings suggest that deposit euroization in central eastern and southeastern europe can be partly tackled by prudent monetary and economic decisions by today s policymakers the preferences of households for euro deposits are partly driven by their distrust in the stability of their domestic currency which in turn is related to their assessment of current policies and institutions however our findings also suggest that a stable monetary policy may not be sufficient to deal with the hysteresis of deposit euroization across the region first we confirm that the holding of foreign currency deposits has become a habit in the region second we find that deposit euroization is still strongly influenced by households experiences of financial crises in the 1990s our findings question the effectiveness of supply side interventions e g bank regulation or demand side interventions e g local currency capital market development in de euroizing household savings first we show that deposit euroization is largely demand driven second we show that households already have access to a broad range of savings products in local currency

the new open economy macroeconomics a survey since the 1995 publication of obsteld and rogoff s redux model there has been an outpouring of research on open economy dynamic general equilibrium models that incorporate imperfect competition and nominal rigidities this paper offers an interim survey of this recent literature 2001 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

country portfolios in open economy macro models this paper develops a simple approximation method for computing equilibrium portfolios in dynamic general equilibrium open economy macro models the method is widely applicable simple to implement and gives analytical solutions for equilibrium portfolio positions in any combination or types of asset it can be used in models with any number of assets whether markets are complete or incomplete and can be applied to stochastic dynamic general equilibrium models of any dimension so long as the model is amenable to a solution using standard approximation methods we first illustrate the approach using a simple two asset endowment economy model and then show how the results extend to the case of any number of assets and general economic structure

does the current account still matter do global current account imbalances still matter in a world of deep international financial markets where gross two way financial flows often dwarf the net flows measured in the current account contrary to a complete markets or consenting adults view of the world large current account imbalances while very possibly warranted by fundamentals and welcome can also signal elevated macroeconomic and financial stresses as was arguably the case in the mid 2000s furthermore the increasingly big valuation changes in countries net international investment positions while potentially important in risk allocation cannot be relied upon systematically to offset the changes in national wealth implied by the current account the same factors that dictate careful attention to global imbalances also imply however that data on gross international financial flows and positions are central to any assessment of financial stability risks the balance sheet mismatches of leveraged entities provide the most direct indicators of potential instability much more so than do global imbalances though the imbalances may well be a symptom that deeper financial threats are gathering

international currency exposures valuation effects and the global financial crisis abstract we examine the evolution of international currency exposures with a particular focus on the 2002 12 period during the run up to the global financial crisis there was a widespread shift towards positive net foreign currency positions such that relatively few countries exhibited the archetypal emerging market short foreign currency position on the eve of the global financial crisis during the crisis the upheaval in currency markets generated substantial currency generated valuation effects much of which were not reversed there is some evidence that the distribution of valuation effects was stabilizing in the sense of showing a negative covariation pattern with pre crisis net foreign asset positions