deciding between competition and collusion we develop an approach to identify and test for bid rigging in procurement auctions first we introduce a general auction model with asymmetric bidders second we study the problem of identie cation in our model we state a set of conditions that are both necessary and sufe cient for a distribution of bids to be generated by a model with competitive bidding third we discuss how to elicit a prior distribution over a e rm s structural cost parameters from industry experts given this prior distri bution we use bayes s theorem to compare competitive and collusive models of industry equilibrium finally we apply our methodology to a data set of bidding by construction e rms in the midwest the techniques we propose are not computationally demanding use e exible functional forms and can be programmed using most standard statistical packages

multiregional oligopoly with capacity constraints we develop a model of cournot competition between capacity constrained firms that sell a single good to multiple regions we provide a novel characterization for the unique equilibrium allocation o

carbon pass through in the electricity sector an econometric analysis abstract we conduct an econometric analysis to investigate the carbon pass through in the greek electricity sector for this reason we utilize a rich micro level panel dataset including hourly data for 24 thermal power plants spanning the period from january 2014 to december 2017 in order to study the pass through of emissions costs to wholesale electricity prices we employ an instrumental variable approach our findings survived several robustness checks accounting for logged linear and non linear econometric specifications the empirical results indicate the existence of an almost complete pass through revealing that retailers fully internalize the cost of co2 permits this study incurs important policy implications since the complete pass through signify that wholesale electricity prices will increase at least in the short run however the overall effect on retail prices will be mostly affected by the amount of co2 permits and the fuel energy mix

ambiguous volatility and asset pricing in continuous time we formulate a model of utility for a continuous time framework that captures aversion to ambiguity about both volatility and drift corresponding extensions of some basic results in asset pricing theory are presented first we derive arbitrage free pricing rules based on hedging arguments because ambiguous volatility implies market incompleteness hedging arguments determine prices only up to intervals in order to obtain sharper predictions we apply the model of utility to a representative agent endowment economy and study equilibrium asset returns a version of the consumption capital asset pricing model is derived and the effects of ambiguous volatility are described the author 2013 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oup com oxford university press

what is to be done for third world commodity exporters an evaluation of the stabex scheme third world economies largely dependent on commodity exports other than oil have been the principal victims of the world recession attempts at restructuring international commodities regimes through the creation of the common fund have met with little success accordingly the possibility of helping commodity exporters through the provision of compensatory finance has attracted increasing attention one possible model for a new international compensatory facility is the eec s stabex scheme established as part of the lome convention however rather than operating automatically and without interfering with market mechanisms as its proponents suggest the administration of stabex has depended on discretionary judgments on the part of the eec commission and the scheme has introduced distortions into trade between the eec and its partners in the lome convention transfers under the stabex scheme have had only a minor impact on the economies of recipient countries especially on the sectors affected by fluctuations in export earnings stabex is an unsatisfactory model for a new compensatory facility additional finance to compensate ldcs for losses in export earnings might most feasibly be made available through further liberalization of the imf s compensatory financing facility

overconfident consumers in the marketplace when consumers sign contracts expectations about future usage of the product or service matter for instance the value provided by car insurance depends on how likely a consumer believes she is to file a claim the value provided by a gym membership depends on how often a consumer anticipates going to the gym and the value provided by a cellular phone contract depends on how many gigabytes of data a consumer anticipates using the standard modeling paradigm makes the expedient assumption that consumers have rational expectations imposing rational expectations drastically simplifies models and eliminates the need to directly measure beliefs as they coincide with the distribution of observed outcomes yet a large literature shows that consumer beliefs often deviate substantially from rational expectations in systematic ways this has important consequences for contract design firm profits consumer welfare and public policy the term overconfidence is used broadly in the psychology literature referring to both overoptimism and overprecision overoptimistic individuals overestimate their own abilities or prospects either in absolute terms or in comparison to others in contrast overprecise individuals place overly narrow confidence intervals around forecasts thereby underestimating uncertainty these biases can lead consumers to misforecast their future product usage or to overestimate their abilities to navigate contract terms in consequence consumer overconfidence causes consumers

competition and entry in agricultural markets experimental evidence from kenya african agricultural markets are characterized by low farmer revenues and high consumer food prices many have worried that this wedge is partially driven by imperfect competition among intermediaries this paper provides experimental evidence from kenya on intermediary market structure randomized cost shocks and demand subsidies are used to identify a structural model of market competition estimates reveal that traders act consistently with joint profit maximization and earn median markups of 39 percent exogenously induced firm entry has negligible effects on prices and low take up of subsidized entry offers implies large fixed costs we estimate that traders capture 82 percent of total surplus

regulated prices rent seeking and consumer surplus price controls lead to misallocation of goods and encourage rent seeking the misallocation effect alone ensures that a price control always reduces consumer surplus in an otherwise competitive market with convex demand if supply is more elastic than demand or with log convex demand e g constant elasticity even if supply is inelastic the same results apply whether rationed goods are allocated by costless lottery or whether costly rent seeking and or partial decontrol mitigates the inefficiency our analysis exploits the observation that in any market consumer surplus equals the area between the demand curve and the industry marginal revenue curve

the bear s lair index credit default swaps and the subprime mortgage crisis during the recent financial crisis abx he index credit default swaps cds on baskets of mortgage backed securities were a benchmark widely used by financial institutions to mark their subprime mortgage portfolios to market however we find that prices for the aaa abx he index cds during the crisis were inconsistent with any reasonable assumption for mortgage default rates and that these price changes are only weakly correlated with observed changes in the credit performance of the underlying loans in the index casting serious doubt on the suitability of these cds as valuation benchmarks we also find that the aaa abx he index cds price changes are related to short sale activity for publicly traded investment banks with significant mortgage market exposure this suggests that capital constraints limiting the supply of mortgage bond insurance may be playing a role here similar to that identified by froot 2001 in the market for catastrophe insurance the author 2011 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oup com oxford university press

do rockets rise faster and feathers fall slower in an atmosphere of local market power evidence from the retail gasoline market this study explores the possibility that local market power influences the observed asymmetric relationship between changes in wholesale gasoline costs and changes in retail gasoline prices i exploit an original data set of weekly gas station prices in southern california from september 2002 to may 2003 and take advantage of detailed station and local market level characteristics to determine the extent to which geographic and product differentiation influence price response asymmetry i find that brand identity proximity to rival stations and local market features and demographics each influence a station s predicted price response asymmetry

testing hypotheses about firm behavior in the cigarette industry data on the effects of excise taxes are used to investigate the level of competition in the cigarette industry a lower bound on the numbers equivalent of firms in the context of the conjectural variations model is derived and estimated results point to at least a moderately high level of competition and in particular allow for the rejection of the perfect cartel model this paper relies on comparative statics results and hence circumvents recent criticisms of a study of monopoly behavior in the cigarette industry

a search based theory of the on the run phenomenon we propose a model in which assets with identical cash flows can trade at different prices infinitely lived agents can establish long positions in a search spot market or short positions by first borrowing an asset in a search repo market we show that short sellers can endogenously concentrate in one asset because of search externalities and the constraint that they must deliver the asset they borrowed that asset enjoys greater liquidity a higher lending fee specialness and trades at a premium consistent with no arbitrage we derive closed form solutions for small frictions and provide a calibration generating realistic on the run premia

price discrimination by u s and german exporters the insensitivity of the u s trade balance to the sharp depreciation of the dollar in the past three years has revived interest in the relationship between exchange rates and the trade balance a central issue in most analyses of the relation between the current account and the exchange rate concerns the price adjustment process the simple integrated competitive market model predicts that local currency prices should change in proportion to the nominal exchange rate for a country too small to influence world prices the relationship between local currency import prices and exchange rates has been referred to as the pass through relationship in the empirical literature in international economics if the proportional relationship between import prices and exchange rates holds pass through is said to be complete accounts of recent u s experience cite the failure of dollar prices of imported goods to rise in proportion to exchange rates i e incomplete pass through as an important factor in explaining the persistence of the trade deficit unfortunately observations on pass through alone provide limited insight into the behavior of markets since incomplete pass through is consistent with at least two fundamentally different paradigms one is the standard competitive model of trade in which the law of one price holds but exchange rate fluctuations are associated with large changes in import demand due to other factors for example if dollar appreciation is correlated with increases in world demand and industry marginal cost is increasing then pass through will be less than complete the other is an imperfectly competitive model in which exporters are capable of price discriminating across destination markets a phenomenon paul krugman 1987 has labeled pricing to market in this model incomplete pass through is typically associated with fluctuations in the markup of price over marginal cost on exports 2 these fluctuations in markups are believed to be countryspecific they do not reflect the behavior of prices to other export destinations both models are plausible explanations of recent u s experience unfortunately it is impossible to distinguish between these competing models using only information on import prices and exchange rates for a single country in order to distinguish between the competing models an empirical analysis of goods prices and exchange rates must be capable of measuring either marginal cost or the markup over marginal cost either of these tasks poses formidable empirical problems much of the empirical literature in industrial organization has been concerned with precisely these issues since markups are an important measure of the competitiveness of industries

a welfare criterion for models with distorted beliefs this paper proposes a welfare criterion for economies in which agents have heterogeneously distorted beliefs instead of taking a stand on whose belief is correct our criterion asserts an allocation to be belief neutral ine cient if it is ine cient under any convex combination of agents beliefs while this criterion gives an incomplete ranking of social allocations it can identify negative sum speculation in a broad range of prominent models with distorted beliefs

the chinese warrants bubble in 2005 2008 over a dozen put warrants traded in china went so deep out of the money that they were almost certain to expire worthless nonetheless each warrant was traded more than three times each day at substantially inflated prices this bubble is unique in that the underlying stock prices make warrant fundamentals publicly observable and that warrants have predetermined finite maturities this sample allows us to examine a set of bubble theories in particular our analysis highlights the joint effects of short sales constraints and heterogeneous beliefs in driving bubbles and confirms several key findings of the experimental bubble literature jel g12 g13 o16 p34

multiproduct pricing made simple we study pricing by multiproduct firms in the context of unregulated monopoly regulated monopoly and cournot oligopoly using the concept of consumer surplus as a function of quantities rather than prices we present simple formulas for optimal prices and show that cournot equilibrium exists and corresponds to a ramsey optimum we then present a tractable class of demand systems that involve a generalized form of homothetic preferences as well as standard homothetic preferences this class includes linear and logit demand within the class profit maximizing quantities are proportional to efficient quantities we discuss cost passthrough including cases where optimal prices do not depend on other products costs finally we discuss optimal monopoly regulation when the firm has private information about its vector of marginal costs and show that if the probability distribution over costs satisfies an independence property then optimal regulation leaves relative price decisions to the firm

pass through rates and the price effects of mergers abstract we investigate the relationship in bertrand oligopoly between the price effects of mergers absent synergies and the rates at which merger synergies are passed through to consumers in the form of lower prices we find that the demand conditions that cause a merger to result in large price increases absent synergies also cause the pass through rate to be high the low estimated pass through rate and the relatively large predicted merger effect thus likely were inconsistent in an important u s merger case

own brand and cross brand retail pass through in this paper we describe the pass through behavior of a major u s supermarket chain for 78 products across 11 categories our data set includes retail prices and wholesale prices for stores in 15 retail price zones for a one year period for the empirical model we use a reduced form approach that focuses directly on equilibrium prices as a function of exogenous supply and demand shifting variables the reduced form approach enables us to identify the theoretical pass through rate without specific assumptions about the form of consumer demand or the conduct of a category pricing manager thus our measurements of pass through are not constrained by specific structure on the underlying economic model the empirical pricing model includes costs of all competing products in the category on the right hand side not only the cost of the focal brand and yields estimates of both own brand and cross brand pass through rates our results provide a rich picture of the retailer s pass through behavior we find that pass through varies substantially across products and across categories own brand pass through rates are on average more than 60 for 9 of 11 categories a finding that is at odds with the claims of manufacturers about retailers in general importantly we find substantial evidence of cross brand pass through effects indicating that retail prices of competing products are adjusted in response to a change in the wholesale price of any given product in the category we find that cross brand pass through rates are both positive and negative we explore determinants of own brand and cross brand pass through rates and find strong evidence in multiple categories of asymmetric retailer response to trade promotions on large versus small brands for example brands with larger market shares and brands that contribute more to retailer profits in the category receive higher pass through we also find that trade promotions on large brands are less likely than small brands to generate positive cross brand pass through i e induce the retailer to reduce the retail price of competing smaller products on the other hand small share brands are disadvantaged along three dimensions trade promotions on small brands receive low own brand pass through and generate positive cross brand pass through for larger competing brands moreover small share brands do not receive positive cross pass through from trade promotions on these larger competitors we also find that store brands are similarly disadvantaged with respect to national brands

the ambiguous effects of taxing foreign buyers abstract i model the effects of a discriminatory tax in the context of monopoly the monopolist serves two types of customers locals and foreigners while the firm may or may not price discriminate the government taxes foreign customers only i show that this tax has ambiguous effects on price output and welfare under uniform pricing moreover it may reduce local welfare even if the price falls i also show that the tax reduces output and local welfare under third degree price discrimination

bias in reduced form estimates of pass through we show that in general consistent estimates of cost pass through are not obtained from reduced form regressions of price on cost we derive a formal approximation for the bias that arises even under standard orthogonality conditions we provide guidance on the conditions under which bias may frustrate inference

estimating tax incidence market power and market conduct the european cigarette industry abstract recent theoretical work has shown that the incidence of ad valorem and specific taxes may differ and each may be over or under shifted onto consumers in the presence of imperfect competition these results are used to derive a method of estimating market power and conduct an application is made to the european cigarette industry previous empirical comparison of the incidence of ad valorem and specific taxes is limited for a group of countries with broadly similar cigarette industries there is evidence of undershifting of both taxes with the specific tax having a significantly greater impact on price the extremes of both perfect competition and monopoly can be rejected behaviour is no less competitive than the equivalent of cournot

measuring the intensity of competition in export markets abstract this paper develops an approach to measuring the intensity of competition in international markets using readily available data on destination specific values and quantities of exports at the seven digit industry level the intensity of competition a group of exporters faces in a particular export market is measured by the residual demand elasticity the group faces this elasticity is identified by exchange rate shocks which rotate the supply relation of the source country export group relative to competitors located in other countries we apply this method to german exports of beer and us exports of linerboard paper the resulting estimates of market power appear to be plausible and consistent with other indicators of competition e g market shares the number of competitors providing support for the applicability of our framework in measuring competition in international markets

cost pass through in differentiated product markets the case of u s processed cheese in this paper we estimate a mixed logit model for demand in the u s processed cheese market the estimates are used to determine pass through rates of cost changes under different behavioral regimes we find that under collusion the pass through rates for all brands fall between 21 and 31 while under nash bertrand price competition the range of pass through rates is between 73 and 103 the mixed logit model provides a more flexible framework for studying pass through rates than the logit model since the curvature of the demand functions depends upon the empirical distribution of consumer types

trade gaps analytical gaps regime analysis and international commodity trade regulation studies of international regimes have sought to describe international collaborative arrangements in more systematic terms than in the past and to analyze their development in terms of major schools of international relations theory this article refines the commonly used definition of regimes and elucidates the major hypotheses of one theoretical school structural realism the strength and nature of the international commodity trade regime are systematically described and their development is analyzed in terms of the major hypotheses of structural realism in large part these hypotheses are supported by the analysis of what is a relatively weak international regime

price transmission and local market power empirical evidence from the austrian gasoline market we analyse the impact of local market power on price margins and different dimensions of price adjustment dynamics speed and asymmetry of price transmission using data for a large number of indiv

a note on the effect of cost changes on prices in a recent article in this journal sumner 1981 took an ingenious approach to estimating the level of monopoly power in the cigarette industry he noted that differences in marginal costs exist in the industry due to varying levels of state taxes the sales prices established will satisfy the equation p i liq l mr mc where p price and q the elasticity of demand for the product in question if elasticity is a constant observing the change in marginal cost and the change in price enables one to infer the elasticity of demand perceived by the firm elasticity could then be used as a proxy for the firm s market power this technique turns out to be of very limited applicability however because it is extremely sensitive to the functional form assumed for the demand curve consider the general problem of a firm facing constant marginal costs of c in maximizing profits the firm solves

in pursuit of monopoly power recent quantitative work in industrial economics this paper reviews empirical work in industrial organization devoted to the question of inferring the existence of monopoly power from data on observed market outcomes like profits and prices the discussion covers inter industry work long conventional in the area newer developments in intra industry analysis and case studies and concludes with some remarks on a small but growing body of work assessing market dynamics the wide range of studies reviewed all generally reveal that market power exists in many industries

imperfect competition in selection markets policies to correct market power and selection can be misguided when these forces coexist we build a model of symmetric imperfect competition in selection markets that parameterizes the degree of market power and selection we use graphical price theoretic reasoning to characterize the interaction between these forces using a calibrated model of health insurance we show that the risk adjustment commonly used to offset adverse selection can reduce coverage and social surplus conversely in a calibrated model of subprime auto lending realistic levels of competition can generate an oversupply of credit implying that greater market power is desirable

cost pass through and inverse demand curvature in vertical relationships with upstream and downstream competition this paper provides two characterizations of the retailer s markup relative to the manufacturer s markup in vertical relationships with homogeneous manufacturers and homogeneous retailers we first show that retailer s relative markup is equal to the ratio of the retail pass through to the wholesale pass through multiplied by the number of manufacturers relative to the number of retailers we then provide its expression in terms of the inverse demand curvature

inferring market power from time series data abstract using bank specific data on deposit rates this paper tests for the existence of market power in banking by means of time series estimations a test is developed that can reject perfect competition on the basis of the observed relationship over time between deposit rates and security rates adjusted for operating costs the analysis also examines whether pricing behavior differs across markets and banking products in a manner consistent with hypothesized differences price taking behavior is rejected for the vast majority of banks for the deposit category that one would expect to be more geographically limited greater market power is found to be exercised by banks located in more concentrated markets

double marginalization and cost pass through weyl fabinger and cowan meet spengler and bresnahan reiss consider the classical double marginalization problem of single product successive monopolies we show that the ratio of the cost pass through at the final sale relative to that at the wholesale level is characterized by the curvature of inverse demand in the final market we also apply cowan s 2012 method which utilizes the idea of pass through in an analysis of third degree price discrimination to compare consumer surplus under vertical integration and separation

pass through vertical contracts and bargains abstract this paper analyzes the determinants of pass through that are specific to vertical relationships between wholesalers and retailers the type of vertical agreement firms contract upon as well as their relative bargaining power are identified as major determinants of pass through rates

pass through in a concentrated industry empirical evidence and regulatory implications we estimate pass through with thirty years of data from a concentrated industry the empirical model accounts for oligopoly interactions yet facilitates estimation with aggregate price data robust statistical evidence supports that industry wide cost changes are more than completely transmitted downstream and that this industry pass through is largely unaected by competitive conditions the industry in question portland cement is a major focus of environmental and antitrust regulators we use our pass through estimates to i evaluate the welfare consequences of marketbased co2 regulation ii predict the magnitude and location of price eects due to a merger under review by antitrust authorities and iii corroborate the simulation based analysis of the epa regarding its impending regulation of local pollutants

rational asset pricing bubbles this paper provides a fairly systematic study of general economic conditions under which rational asset pricing bubbles may arise in an intertemporal competitive equilibrium framework our main results are concerned with nonexistence of asset pricing bubbles in those economies these results imply that the conditions under which bubbles are possible including some well known examples of monetary equilibria are relatively fragile this paper is concerned with the conditions under which asset prices in an intertemporal competitive equilibrium are equal to the present value of the streams of future dividends to which each asset represents a claim according to a central result of the theory of finance this is very generally true in the case of economies with trading at only a finite sequence of dates as long as there are no restrictions upon transactions other than that associated with possible incom pleteness of the set of securities that are traded the result is sometimes called the fundamental theorem of asset pricing here we consider the extent to which such a result continues to be valid in the case of trading over an infinite horizon it has often been observed in the econometric literature on asset pricing bubbles that it is possible in principle for the price of a perpetuity and the dividends on that security to satisfy at all times a present value relation for one period holding returns while the security s price nonetheless does not equal the present value of the stream of dividends expected over the infinite future in such a case the price of the perpetuity is said to involve a bubble component 2 joint stochastic processes for which this component is nonzero are sometimes argued to characterize existing assets for a recent example see froot and obstfeld 1991 but such an inference depends upon aspects of the stochastic

vertical integration foreclosure and productive efficiency we analyze the consequences of vertical integration by a monopoly producer dealing with two retailers downstream firms of varying efficiency via secret two part tariffs when integrated with the inefficient retailer the monopoly producer does not foreclose the rival retailer due to an output shifting effect this effect can induce the integrated firm to engage in below cost pricing at the wholesale level thereby rendering integration procompetitive output shifting arises with homogeneous and differentiated products moreover we show that integration with an inefficient retailer emerges in a model with uncertainty over retailers costs and this merger can be procompetitive in expectation

online shopping and platform design with ex ante registration requirements we study platform design in online markets in which buying involves a nonmonetary cost for consumers caused by privacy and security concerns firms decide whether to require registration at their website before consumers learn relevant product information we derive conditions under which a monopoly seller benefits from ex ante registration requirements and demonstrate that the profitability of registration requirements is increased when taking into account the prospect of future purchases or an informational value of consumer registration to the firm moreover we consider the effectiveness of discounts store credit as a means to influence the consumers registration decision finally we confirm the profitability of ex ante registration requirements in the presence of price competition the online appendix is available at https doi org 10 1287 mnsc 2016 2595 this paper was accepted by j miguel villas boas marketing

asymmetric dynamic pricing in a local gasoline retail market asymmetric price adjustment is a common phenomenon in many markets around the world particularly in retail gasoline markets this paper studies the existence of this phenomenon in the retail gasoline market in the city of santiago chile using a data set of weekly gas station prices that covers a period of almost four years we found that prices adjust asymmetrically and the asymmetry is different for branded gas stations and unbranded stations in addition we found that the asymmetry for high margin stations is statistically equivalent to that for low margin stations this evidence is suggestive of collusion as a rationale for the asymmetric pricing policy observed

predicting competitive response to a major policy change combining game theoretic and empirical analyses this research uses procter gamble s value pricing initiative as a context for testing whether actual competitor and retailer response to a major policy change can be predicted using a game theoretic model we first estimate demand functions for p g and competitor brands from the period before value pricing was initiated we then formulate a dynamic manufacturer retailer stackelberg model that includes p g a national brand competitor and a retailer the model takes p g s move as given and prescribes the price and promotion response of the competitors and the retailer we substitute the estimated demand parameters into the model to obtain prescriptions for each competitor and the retailer and see whether these prescriptions are related to the actual response we find that the dynamic game theoretic model calibrated with empirical estimates of demand parameters has significant predictive power we also test the predictive power of two benchmark models the first is based on the reaction function approach of leeflang and wittink leeflang peter s h wittink dick r 1992 diagnosing competitive reactions using aggregated scanner data internat j res marketing9 39 57 and the second is a simplification of our dynamic model where the retailer is not strategic the dynamic game theoretic model performs better than either benchmark

trade developments during the first lome convention abstract the lome convention signed in 1975 between the european economic community eec and 46 african caribbean and pacific acp states was hailed as a model for a new international economic order this article analyses the trade between the two groupings during the five years 1975 1979 of the first convention in the context of world trade in general there was no substantial change in trade flows contrary to acp aspirations for an improvement in their export performance with the europeans the eec share of acp exports declined despite the convention s provisions the acp even failed to maintain their shares of the eec market actually faring worse than other non oil ldcs little diversification was achieved in acp exports in contrast the eec maintained its position in acp markets

welfare increasing third degree price discrimination when demand functions in different markets are derived from distributions of reservation prices that differ only in their means conditions exist such that third degree price discrimination leads to greater total output and greater total welfare welfare is higher with discrimination than with a uniform price when demand functions are derived from logistic distributions with different means welfare and consumer surplus are higher with discrimination for demands derived from a distribution related to the pareto in general whether discrimination increases total output depends on demand being more convex in markets in which prices fall with discrimination than in those in which prices rise

frictional intermediation in over the counter markets we extend duffie et al s 2005 search theoretic model of over the counter otc asset markets allowing for a decentralized inter dealer market with arbitrary heterogeneity in dealers valuations or equivalently inventory costs we develop a solution technique that makes the model fully tractable and allows us to derive in closed form theoretical formulas for key statistics analysed in empirical studies of the intermediation process in otc markets a calibration to the market for municipal bonds allows us to quantify important unobservable characteristics of this market including the severity of search and bargaining frictions and the nature of heterogeneity across dealers we use our calibrated model to study the effect of these market characteristics on total welfare and the distribution of gains from trade across customers and dealers

do larger health insurance subsidies benefit patients or producers evidence from medicare advantage a central question in the debate over privatized medicare is whether increased government payments to private medicare advantage ma plans generate lower premiums for consumers or higher profits for producers using difference in differences variation brought about by a sharp legislative change we find that ma insurers pass through 45 percent of increased payments in lower premiums and an additional 9 percent in more generous benefits we show that advantageous selection into ma cannot explain this incomplete pass through instead our evidence suggests that market power is important with premium pass through rates of 13 percent in the least competitive markets and 74 percent in the most competitive

the impact of advertising regulation on industry the cigarette advertising ban of 1971 this article studies the impact of the 1971 tv radio advertising ban on the cigarette industry data indicate that industry advertising spending decreased sharply immediately following the ban but recovered and actually exceeded the preban level within five years a dynamic oligopoly model of advertising is developed to incorporate two potential explanations the estimated model fully accounts for the puzzling trend with 74 of the postban advertising spending increase explained by industry dynamics and 26 explained by learning furthermore this article uses the new concept of nonstationary oblivious equilibrium to handle intractable state space and accelerate equilibrium computation

screening competition in mobile telephony this article presents a simple method for screening competition in differentiated products oligopoly with a small number of competitors in many situations estimation of price elasticities of demand may be impossible due to difficulties in defining demand or missing data on sales however even without information on price elasticities in certain situations it is possible to test for the static noncooperative nash bertrand equilibrium which in the case of rejection may be important screening information for antitrust authorities the static noncooperative nash bertrand equilibrium may be rejected when demand is linear and in the estimation of best response functions the coefficients on the competitors prices are statistically greater than 0 5 the application of this method is illustrated by the example of german mobile telephony using monthly data between january 1998 and december 2002 according to the estimation results the observed prices in the segment of low users cannot be the outcome of a s

vertical bargaining and retail competition what drives countervailing power this article investigates the effects of changes in market concentration on the equilibrium prices in a supply chain results are derived from a theoretical model of bilateral bargaining between upstream and downstream firms which allows for general forms of demand and retail competition whether countervailing buyer power arises in the form of lower input prices following greater concentration downstream depends on the pass through rate of input prices to retail prices countervailing buyer power generally does not translate into lower retail prices because of heightened market power at the retail level

perfect competition urbanization and tax incidence in the retail gasoline market i introduction in applied tax incidence studies it is typically assumed that prices respond one for one to changes in sales and excise taxes chernick and reschovsky 1997 pechman 1985 shepard 1976 state of wisconsin department of revenue 2004 wiese rose and schluter 1995 zupnick 1975 is this assumption reasonable despite the fundamental role of tax incidence in the study of public finance there is surprisingly little empirical analysis that sheds light on who bears the burden of taxes in this article we examine the incidence of state gasoline excise taxes using monthly price data for all 50 states in the united states over the period 1984 1999 our estimation results generally indicate full shifting of gasoline taxes to the final consumer with changes in gasoline taxes fully reflected in the tax inclusive gasoline price almost instantly we also find that the incidence of excise taxes depends on the competitiveness of retail gasoline markets e g urban vs rural markets gasoline markets in urban states typically exhibit full shifting but those in rural states demonstrate somewhat less than full shifting although the issue of sales and excise tax incidence has received considerable attention over the years most research has focused on tax incidence theory and the standard conclusion of much of this theoretical analysis is that consumers bear the full burden of any sales and excise taxes 1 based primarily on this theoretical foundation most applied incidence studies assume that sales and excise taxes are fully reflected in consumer prices and the distribution of tax burdens across income classes necessarily reflects this assumption however actual empirical testing of this assumption of full forward shifting has been surprisingly sparse 2 in important recent research poterba 1996 and besley and rosen 1999 have conducted empirical analyses of the incidence of excise taxes poterba 1996 uses city specific clothing and personal care price data covering the 1947 1977 and the 1925 1939 periods to examine the degree to which state and local retail sales taxes are shifted to consumers with two data sets based on bureau of labor statistics bls city specific consumer price indices using these bls data on tax inclusive prices poterba 1996 constructs quarterly price indices for each of 28 standard metropolitan statistical areas smsas many of these 28 smsas experienced significant changes in sales tax rates and poterba 1996 uses these tax shocks to determine the incidence of sales taxes his estimation results are somewhat variable but in general he finds for the postwar period that taxes are fully shifted to consumers in some cases he finds limited evidence of overshifting although it is never possible to reject the null hypothesis that prices rise point for point with the changes in the tax and he also finds that full shifting typically though not always occurs in the first quarter of the tax change poterba 1996 also examines tax incidence for individual smsas during the depression era and his results indicate significant differences across metropolitan areas in the degree of tax shifting for example prices on women s clothing in chicago show significant overshifting but atlanta shows negative shifting a result that does not seem plausible besley and rosen 1999 also examine the incidence of sales taxes using price data for 12 narrowly defined commodities in 155 different u s cities using quarterly price data for the period 1982 1990 issued by the american chamber of commerce researchers association accra 3 they not only find full shifting for a number of commodities but also find overshifting for more than half the products a result they attribute to imperfect competition in the retail sector while this recent empirical research has significantly expanded our understanding of the actual nature of sales and excise tax incidence we believe that our work here on gasoline excise taxes makes several contributions to the empirical literature

market power and heterogeneous pass through in german electricity retail abstract we analyze the pass through of cost changes to retail tariffs in the german electricity market over the 2007 2014 period we find an average pass through rate of around 60 this significantly varies with demand factors while the pass through rate to baseline tariffs where firms have greater market power because customers are less willing to switch is only 50 it increases to 70 in the competitive segment of the market although the pass through rate of independent firms is significantly higher than that of other firms in the competitive market segment the extent of supply side heterogeneity is limited thus the firms ability to exercise market power and reduce pass through appears to be constrained by competition and largely determined by demand side factors finally we find that the pass through rate in the competitive market segment has been approaching unity over the past years indicating a rise in competitive pressure

commodity prices and food inflation commodity prices rose at unprecedented rates between 2007 and 2008 in the year between july 2007 and july 2008 corn prices rose 51 9 soybean prices 74 4 wheat prices 104 5 and milk prices by 41 4 as farm prices reached their peaks policy makers became concerned over the potential impact on retail food price inflation and when farm prices be gan to fall in late 2008 interest shifted to how fast or whether retail prices followed boyle 2009 leibtag 2008 argues that the surge in commodity prices had little impact on con sumer prices because commodity inputs form a small part of the final product although true for some highly processed foods such as break fast cereals cookies and breads farm prices form a significant part of the retail price for fresh produce meat and dairy products in fact pass through rates from farm to retail prices are likely to vary depending on the nature of the production process gardner 1975 the competitiveness of the vertical supply channel bulow and pfleiderer 1983 kim and cotterill 2008 the number of products sold hamil ton 2009 and even the direction of the price change frey and manera 2007 the pass through rate is a simple and important concept but highly complex to measure previous research on this issue assumes

continuous cross subsidies and quantity restrictions this article provides a model of loss leader pricing and quantity restrictions for a competitive multiproduct industry when individual consumers have continuous and independent demands for the set of available goods utilizing a generalization of the model proposed by bliss 1988 we demonstrate the importance of consumer heterogeneity for the existence of cross subsidies when there is complete information and individual consumers have smooth downward sloping demands continuous cross subsidies arising from consumer heterogeneity are also shown to exist in hotelling models our use of continuous rather than unit demands allows us to analyze issues related to welfare which in turn exposes a strong incentive for the firm to place binding quantity restrictions on consumers we also show how the presence of quantity restrictions can be used to distinguish between continuous cross subsidies arising from heterogeneous consumers versus those arising from classic demand complementarity with homogeneous agents

asset float and speculative bubbles we model the relationship between asset float tradeable shares and speculative bubbles investors with heterogeneous beliefs and short sales constraints trade a stock with limited float because of insider lockups a bubble arises as price overweighs optimists beliefs and investors anticipate the option to resell to those with even higher valuations the bubble s size depends on float as investors anticipate an increase in float with lockup expirations and speculate over the degree of insider selling consistent with the internet experience the bubble turnover and volatility decrease with float and prices drop on the lockup expiration date

creating win win trade promotions theory and empirical analysis of scan back trade deals manufacturer trade promotion spending is second only to cost of goods sold as a profit and loss item yet manufacturers often lose money on these deals as a result of forward buying by retailers the search for more effective forms of trade promotion and the availability of scanners at cash registers has led to the emergence of a new type of trade deal the scan back that gives retailers a discount on unitssoldduring the promotion rather than on unitsbought we develop a theory to compare retailer pricing decisions and profitability under scan back and traditional off invoice trade deals we show that when the terms of the trade deal are identical retailers prefer off invoice trade deals and manufacturers prefer scan backs manufacturers can however redesign the scan back to leave the retailer weakly better off and leave themselves strictly better off using proprietary data from the beverage category we conduct an empirical analysis and find that during the promotion period scan back trade deals relative to off invoice deals 1 do not cause excess ordering and 2 generate higher retail sales through lower retail prices implications for researchers and managers are discussed

ad valorem platform fees indirect taxes and efficient price discrimination this article explains why platforms such as amazon and visa rely predominantly on ad valorem fees fees which increase proportionally with transaction prices it also provides a new explanation for why ad valorem sales taxes are more desirable than specific taxes the theory rests on the ability of ad valorem fees and taxes to achieve efficient price discrimination given that the value of a transaction to buyers tends to vary proportionally with the cost of the good traded