international consumption risk sharing this paper formally examines the implications of international consumption risk sharing for a panel of industrialized countries we theoretically derive the international consumption insurance proposition in a simple setup and show how to modify it in more complicated models we analyze the implications of the theory for pairs of countries and find that aggregate domestic consumption is almost completely insured against idiosyncratic real demographic fiscal and monetary shocks over short cycles but that it covaries with these variables over medium and long cycles the cross equation restrictions imposed by the theory are rejected the policy implications are discussed

bid caps in large contests abstract we study the effect of rigid and flexible bid caps on contestants aggregate costs and aggregate bids in all pay contests with a large number of heterogeneous contestants and prizes we show that rigid caps always decrease aggregate costs whereas flexible caps have essentially no effect on aggregate costs rigid caps decrease aggregate bids when costs are linear or concave but increase aggregate bids under some conditions when costs are convex flexible caps always decrease aggregate bids

the effectiveness of child care subsidies in encouraging the welfare to work transition of low income single mothers in recent years public attitudes toward single mothers have changed dramatically and policymakers are being pressed to devise reforms that will reduce their welfare dependency in the summer of 1994 at least 11 separate welfare reform proposals were being debated by congressional committees because child care is relatively expensive compared to potential earnings for single mothers extensions to current child care assistance programs will be an integral component of any welfare reform package very little evidence exists regarding child care utilization patterns and links to employment for low income mothers exceptions include mark berger and dan black 1992 and the recent congressional testimony given by jane ross 1994 of the gao contributing to the changing attitudes toward welfare recipients is the change in the demographic makeup of the labor force overall female labor force participation rates have grown dramatically in the past 30 years from 45 percent in the mid 1960 s to 75 percent in the early 1990 s as a result subsidizing poor single mothers so that they can stay at home with their children while more and more married mothers are working for pay has become less popular this has led to the encouragement of work particularly full time work as a means of poverty reduction for single mothers unfortunately child care costs represent a significant employment barrier on average child care costs 63 per week overall and 44 per week for care by a relative for the typical single mother child care costs range between 15 percent and 30 percent of earned income depending on the mode of care and hourly wage 2

the role of american depositary receipts in the development of emerging equity markets this paper finds that the growth and expansion of u s cross listings by firms from emerging markets around the world facilitated an expansion of cross border equity flows and overall development of their stock markets during the 1990s however these benefits have negative spillover effects the capitalization and turnover ratios of local market firms that do not pursue overseas listings decline as u s cross listings in the form of american depositary receipts adrs increase in size and scope we investigate various possible sources of these negative spillovers and offer new evidence that the growth of adrs neither facilitates nor hinders local market development but represent an outcome of poorly functioning local markets policy implications are discussed

trying to explain home bias in equities and consumption investors hold a substantially larger proportion of their wealth portfolios in domestic assets than standard portfolio theory would suggest a phenomenon called equity home bias in the absence of this bias investors would optimally diversify domestic output risk using foreign equities therefore consumption growth rates would tend to co move across countries even when output growth rates do not empirically however consumption growth rates tend to have a lower correlation across countries than do output growth rates a phenomenon i call consumption home bias in this paper i discuss these two biases and their potential relationship as suggested by the literature

the case for gdp indexed bonds gds indexed bonds this paper seeks to revive the case for countries to insure against economic growth slowdowns by issuing bonds indexed to the rate of growth of gdp we show that gdp indexed bonds could provide substantial benefits in reducing the likelihood of default crises and allowing countries to avoid pro cyclical fiscal policies we simulate the effects of gdp indexed bonds under different assumptions about fiscal policy reaction functions and their output effects and find that they could substantially reduce the likelihood of debt gdp paths becoming explosive the insurance premium would likely be small because cross country comovement of gdp growth rates is low and cross country gdp growth risk is thus largely diversifiable for an investor holding a portfolio of gdp indexed bonds potential obstacles to the emergence of a market for these bonds include the verifiability of gdp data the trade off between insurance and moral hazard and the need for liquidity theory and past experience suggest that financial innovation often requires official intervention and its timing and form are difficult to predict we discuss institutional fixes and suggest an approach for attempting to start up a market eduardo borensztein and paolo mauro

risk and potential insurance in europe abstract this paper argues that risk is related to long run volatility of income and therefore stabilization policies should target permanent fluctuations we show that such fluctuations can in principle be insured away by a multinational fiscal federation which smooths income cross sectionally and has no ex ante permanent redistribution effects we propose a measure of risk and a measure of potential insurable risk we estimate these measures for the european countries and compare results with the us results show that potential insurable income risk in europe is about 45 most countries will benefit from an average income tax of 10 but gains differ widely across countries

financial globalization and debt maturity in emerging economies this paper studies how financial globalization affects debt structure in emerging economies we find that by accessing international markets firms increase their long term debt and extend their debt maturity in contrast with financial liberalization long term debt decreases and the maturity structure shifts to the short term for the average firm these effects are stronger in economies with less developed domestic financial systems the evidence is consistent with financial integration having opposite effects on the firms that are able to integrate with world markets and obtain financing globally relative to the firms that rely on domestic financing only

child care and the labor supply of married women reduced form evidence this paper empirically analyzes family demands for market and nonmarket child care services and the impact of these demands on the work effort of married women the paperfirst develops a general model of child care and labor force participation the model predicts that higher wages increase the likelihood of labor force participation and that higher costs decrease the likelihood of child care utilization the paper then develops a threeequation reduced form econometric specification of the general model the equations in the specification are estimated simultaneously using 1985 data from the survey of income program participation the estimates reveal that the cost of market child care has a strong negative effect on the labor supply of married women

north south lending and endogenous domestic capital market inefficiencies abstract we develop an open economy model of intertemporal trade under asymmetric information capital market imperfections are endogenous and depend on a country s stage of economic development relative to the perfect information benchmark north south capital flows are dampened and possibly reversed and world interest rates are lower whereas riskless rates are equalized across borders the domestic loan rate is higher in poorer countries the model can be applied to a number of policy issues including the debt overhang problem the indexation of foreign public debts and the effect of income distribution on growth

accounting for urban china s rising income inequality the roles of labor market human capital and marriage market factors this paper analyzes china s rising family income inequality since the early 1990s when the urban labor market started its transformation from a centrally controlled to a market driven one we document the trends in income inequality over the period of 1992 2009 using the urban household survey data and adopt the approach recently proposed by eika et al 2014 to decompose changes in income inequality we find that labor market factors accounted for about three quarters of the overall increases in income inequality while falling marriage rate contributed the other quarter changes in human capital levels and marital assortativeness have not contributed to the rising inequality jel d31 i26 j12

channels of interstate risk sharing united states 1963 1990 we develop a framework for quantifying the amount of risk sharing among states in the united states and construct data that allow us to decompose the cross sectional variance in gross state product into several components which we refer to as levels of smoothing we find that 39 percent of shocks to gross state product are smoothed by capital markets 13 percent are smoothed by the federal government and 23 percent are smoothed by credit markets the remaining 25 percent are not smoothed we also decompose the federal government smoothing into subcategories taxes transfers and grants to states

maquiladoras and market mamas women s work and childcare in guatemala city and accra abstract this paper analyses work childcare and earnings of mothers in the slums of guatemala city and accra similar factors affect decisions to work and to use formal daycare but the importance of childcare varies with the role of the formal labour sector in guatemala where formal sector work is important higher prices for informal care increase formal daycare use however daycare prices and proximity to daycare centers do not significantly affect earnings in guatemala city and accra respectively providing formal daycare may be more important to mothers decision to work in cities where formal sector work dominates

women s labour force participation and child care in romania abstract this paper models household demand for childcare and mothers labour force participation in romania the model estimates the effects of the price of childcare mothers wages and household characteristics on household behaviour with respect to childcare and maternal employment we find that both the maternal decision to become employed and the decision to use out of home care are sensitive to the price of childcare a decrease in the price of care can increase the number of working mothers and thus can reduce poverty in some households we also find that the potential market wage of the mother has a significant positive effect on the decision to purchase market care and on the decision to engage in paid employment the level of household non wage income has little effect on maternal employment and on the demand for childcare

the effect of household structure on women s economic activity and fertility evidence from recent mothers in urban mexico this study examines the effect of the presence of a mother substitute in the household on urban womens participation in the labor force and fertility in mexico in 1982 data were obtained from the 1982 mexican national demographic survey on reproductive history educational status employment status and household structure for a subsample of 2746 urban women who were married 90 or in a consensual union 10 and had had a child within the prior 5 years theoretically women with higher value of market time lower household income and lower value of nonmarket time will more likely be working women women had 3 4 surviving children 83 used contraceptives and 15 were employed analysis involved use of reduced form equations to model the joint determination of labor force participation and fertility justification of this method is given husbands education was a proxy for income level cost of child rearing is figured as the mothers number of children 5 years and household structure mother substitute was an additional unemployed female aged 13 years an imputed wage for all women in the sample is used to measure the value of time in the labor force probit regression estimation methods revealed that mothers were more likely to be working when their wage offers were higher those with a caretaker in the household and with a less well educated husband are also more likely to work those more likely to be employed also had few children 6 12 years and more children 13 years in the fully reduced form of the equation determinants of the wage offer education age region were substituted for the instrumental variable the results were consistent an additional woman in the household was significantly positively related to the likelihood of women working in the reduced form fertility equation women who were younger better educated with more children and with better educated partners were less likely to have more than 1 child born within the last 5 years the implication from the negative coefficient of the household structure variable is that women with additional caretakers are less likely to have more than 1 young child the causes are explained mother substitutes increase the likelihood of working women and do not increase the likelihood of having more children particularly among nonemployed mothers which differs from us results future research should refine the measure of mother substitute and account for her presence in the household

international risk sharing and european monetary unification abstract we explore income and consumption smoothing patterns among european community ec countries and among oecd countries during the period 1966 90 we find that for oecd as well as for ec countries about 40 percent of shocks to gdp are smoothed at the one year frequency with about half the smoothing achieved through national government budget deficits and half by corporate saving at the three year differencing frequency only 25 percent of shocks to gdp are smoothed mainly via government lending and borrowing in the absence of alternative income and consumption smoothing mechanisms the restrictions on budget deficits imposed by the maastricht treaty should be relaxed to allow governments to run large temporary deficits in response to output shocks

the effect of child care costs on married women s labor force participation the effect of child care costs on the probability that married women with children will participate in the labor market is examined child care costs are estimated using a generalized tobit specification corrected for selection estimates of a structural probit model of labor force participation provide evidence to support the prediction that increased child care costs lower the probability of participation it is also shown that the lower rate of labor force participation among mothers of preschoolers is entirely the result of the higher child care costs faced by these women and endogeneity of the number of young children in the participation equation copyright 1992 by mit press

economic transition and the motherhood wage penalty in urban china investigation using panel data china s economic transition has fundamentally changed the mechanisms for allocating and compensating labour this paper investigates how the economic transition has affected the wage gap between mothers and childless women in urban china using panel data for the period 1990 2005 the results show that overall mothers earned considerably less than childless women additionally the wage penalties for motherhood went up substantially from the gradualist reform period 1990 96 to the radical reform period 1999 2005 the results also show that that although motherhood does not appear to have a significant wage effect for the state sector it imposes substantial wage losses for mothers in the non state sector these findings suggest that the economic transition has shifted part of the cost of childbearing and rearing from the state and employers back to women in the form of lower earnings for working mothers copyright oxford university press

joint labor supply and childcare choice decisions of married mothers this paper examines the impact of childcare prices and wage rates on the joint employment and childcare mode center sitter relative and husband choice decisions of married mothers by estimating both a mixed logit and universal logit choice model data are drawn from the 1988 canadian national child care survey and the 1988 labour market activity survey the estimation results show that wages have a positive impact on the probability of choosing any of the working states and that childcare prices for center sitter and relative care reduce the probability of working and using each respective mode of care sensitivity analyses reveal that the wage elasticity for employment is fairly robust across model specifications while the own price elasticity of childcare is sensitive to model specification differing identifying assumptions in the estimation of childcare price equations and sample selection the simulation results show that differences exist in the degree to which government subsidies in the form of wage subsidies targeted childcare subsidies or unconditional childcare subsidies impact on labor supply decisions and decisions to substitute across different modes of care by those mothers already in the labor market

welfare gains from international risksharing abstract this paper uses consumption data to compute yet unexploited welfare gains that can be achieved through risksharing among twenty oecd countries there is both aggregate national consumption risk and nondiversifiable individual specific risk countries engage in an optimal risksharing arrangement to pool risk associated with the aggregate consumption endowment streams welfare gains are associated with reduced consumption variability and with the international pricing of the consumption streams of individual countries the paper considers the standard vnm time additive preferences as well as nonexpected utility and habit formation preferences large unexploited gains are found under all sets of preferences leading to an international risksharing puzzle

risk sharing from international factor income explaining cross country differences access to world capital markets and net investment income flows between countries help protect national income from country specific output shocks i empirically study what factors explain cross country differences in the extent of risk sharing from international factor income an index of investor protection is the leading causal variable for the estimated amount of risk sharing over the 1985 to 2004 period improving investor protection in russia to denmark s level implies five times larger risk sharing compared to the sample average these results indicate one possible way to reap large potential benefits from international risk sharing

a new database on the structure and development of the financial sector this article introduces a new database of indicators of financial structure and financial development across countries and over time the database is unique in that it combines a wide variety of indicators that measure the size activity and efficiency of financial intermediaries and markets it improves on previous efforts by presenting data on the public share of commercial banks introducing indicators of the size and activity of nonbank financial institutions and constructing measures of the size of bond and primary equity markets this article introduces a new database the first to provide comprehensive measures of the development structure and performance of the financial sector this database is the first to define and construct indicators of the size and activity of nonbank financial intermediaries such as insurance companies pension funds and non deposit money banks it is also the first to include indicators of the size of primary equity markets and primary and secondary bond markets in constructing the database authors carefully deflate measures and match stock and flow variables

risk and insurance in village india comment the protection of poor households in high risk agrarian economies from shocks to their incomes has often been seen as a compelling motive for various forms of policy intervention including transfers of cash or food credit subsidies and public employment schemes for a survey see lipton and ravallion 1995 the desirability of such safety net policies clearly depends on how well pre existing risk sharing arrangements work while it is commonly thought that without effective policy intervention rural households are vulnerable to village wide shocks such as adverse prices or poor rains it is less clear to what extent risk sharing institutions within the village mitigate the effects of idiosyncratic income risk stemming for instance from ill health or localized crop damage 2 several recent papers have used household level data to implement tests of risk sharing that might inform such concerns 3 these tests are based on the proposition that with perfect risk sharing consumption at the household level should be insured against idiosyncratic risks and thus depend solely on the realization of the aggregate risk wilson 1968 diamond 1967 townsend 1994 tests this implication of perfect intra village risk sharing using longitudinal household data on consumptions and incomes for three villages in india he reports that the full insurance hypothesis provides a surprisingly good benchmark in that household consumptions co move and do not appear to be much influenced by contemporaneous own income our aim here is to examine the robustness of this potentially important finding we have two main concerns the first is that the specification townsend adopts potentially biases his test towards the null hypothesis of full insurance because it yields inconsistent estimates of the key test parameter under a plausible alternative we therefore estimate a different specification that generates consistent estimates under both the null and the alternative our second concern is that a particular form of measurement error in the consumption data townsend uses may have further biased his results toward the null hypothesis of full insurance to address this concern we use an instrumental variables procedure when we implement the test of consumption insurance with townsend s consumption data we also re estimate the test equations with a measure of consumption derived from the same underlying primary data by an alternate method finally townsend reports 1discussions with robert townsend stimulated our interest in this investigation the staff of the

women s employment and child care choices in urban china during the economic transition abstractchina s transition from a centrally planned to a market economy has substantially eroded governmental support for child care raising the concern about how the change of child care provision may affect women s labor market participation this article examines the impact of child care availability and affordability on the employment and child care choices of urban chinese women with preschool children during the transition the analysis shows that the presence of day care in the community is positively associated with a mother s labor force participation and labor hour supply and that the rising costs of hired caregivers reduce the mother s labor hour supply the analysis also finds that both the costs of hired caregivers and family income have important effects on the use of out of home care services simulations indicate that the decline in day care presence would account for 46 of the decrease in mothers labor force participation during the public sector restructuring between 1997 and 2000

borrowing constraints and international risk sharing evidence from asymmetric error correction we analyse the adjustment process of consumption growth after disequilibrating output shocks in a sample of organization for economic cooperation and development oecd countries in particular we test the hypothesis that consumption is smoothed to a lesser degree after negative shocks whereas the impact of a positive shock is delayed for a longer period of time our analysis is based on an error correction framework that allows for asymmetric adjustment we find that the mean adjustment lag after a negative shock is significantly shorter than after a positive shock especially since the beginning of the 1980s this result is consistent with the interpretation that borrowing constraints limit the degree to which the impact of negative shocks on consumption can be smoothed

why do women have longer durations of unemployment than men in post restructuring urban china this paper provides the first systematic analysis of the reasons why women endure longer unemployment durations than men in post restructuring urban china this analysis is based upon data obtained from a national representative household survey rejecting the view that women are less earnest than men in their desire for re employment this analysis shows that women s job search efforts are handicapped by a lack of access to social networks unequal entitlement to social re employment services higher earnings losses from job separations for women and unfair treatment of women with respect to mandatory retirement

the demand for quality in child care we estimate a model of demand for quality related attributes of child care group size staff child ratio and provider training the model is estimated jointly with equations for mode expenditure on and hours of care and the mother s labor supply the results show that a lower price of child care in a particular mode leads to substitution toward that mode and an increase in the use of paid child care a decrease in the price of care causes an increase in hours of care demanded and a decrease in the demand for qualityrelated attributes income effects on demand for quality are small

child care costs and the employment decision of women canadian evidence the authors estimate the joint decision for women with preschool children to engage in paid employment and to purchase market forms of child care the results confirm those found in most u s studies indicating that child care costs exert a significant negative effect on the labor supply of women with children and on their decision to purchase child care as well the expected wage of the mother exerts a significant positive impact on both the decision to purchase market forms of child care and the decision to engage in paid unemployment

consumption smoothing and vulnerability in russia applying bootstrapped quantile regression to the russian longitudinal monitoring survey rlms data we examine the channels through which individuals experience and seek to cope with changes in consumption we find that married individuals living in small households with educated heads in urban areas are better equipped to smooth consumption investigating the impact of idiosyncratic shocks we find that the labour market is an important transmission mechanism allowing households to smooth their consumption but also exposing them to risk mainly through job loss outside of pension payments the formal social safety net does not facilitate consumption smoothing thus heightening the importance of informal coping institutions it transpires that both support from relatives friends and home production act as important insurance mechanisms for the most vulnerable

child care subsidies and labor supply in sweden this paper utilizes data from a swedish household survey for 1984 the hus data in combination with data on public child care fees and spaces per child by community we argue that the subsidy rate and availability of spaces determined by the political leaders of the community is to a large extent exogenous to the household the joint out of home child care and labor supply decision is analyzed by logit and ordered probit choice models we find that the high quality public child care in sweden encourages labor market activity of women with preschoolers even when the spouse s income is high and that when spaces are not rationed a lower price encourages use

a structural model of child care and the labor supply of married women this article empirically examines married women s labor supply and child care expenditures the article uses winter 1984 85 data from the survey of income and program participation to estimate a fu

child care costs and family labor supply this paper presents a theoretical and empirical analysis of the effects of child care costs on family labor supply and the demand for market child care the model is a framework for cross section estimation of the effects of child care costs on labor supply and child care use it applies to households having young children requiring continuous care and in which both the mother and 1 other potential child care provider are present the 3 potential sources of child care are the mother the potential informal provider and the market using data from the 1980 baseline household survey of the employment opportunity pilot projects this empirical analysis uses a subsample of 6170 households in which there is a married woman under age 45 with her spouse present at the time of the survey at least 1 child under age 14 and nonmissing data on key variables results show that 1 higher market child care costs discourage women from working even when an informal source of care is available indicating that such informal care is an imperfect substitute for market care 2 a higher wage rate for the mother encourages her to work thus a higher wage rate increases the probability of using market child care 3 the number of children requiring care has a negative impact on the probability of the women working with the largest impact caused by younger children 4 nonwage income has a negative impact on the probability of the woman working and 5 black women are more likely to work than whites and are statistically more likely than whites to use market child care if they do work this family labor supply model predicts that the cost of market child care will affect household decisions on labor supply and child care use estimates of a qualitative choice model provide strong confirmation that child care costs affect such decisions the responsiveness of the labor supply of mothers to child care costs demonstrated in this study indicate that such subsidies do have their intended effect of encouraging labor supply the fact that a large proportion of current child care subsidies benefit primarily middle and upper income families via the income tax credit suggests that the labor supply effets of such subsidies may in practice be stronger for less needy families than for low income families employer subsidized child care may become an increasingly popular tool for attracting mothers into the labor force

why doesn t capital flow from rich to poor countries an empirical investigation we examine the empirical role of difierent explanations for the lack of ows of capital from rich to poor countries the lucas paradox the theoretical explanations include difierences in fundamentals across countries and capital market imperfections we show that during 1970i2000 low institutional quality is the leading explanation for example improving peru s institutional quality to australia s level implies a quadrupling of foreign investment recent studies emphasize the role of institutions for achieving higher levels of income but remain silent on the speciflc mechanisms our results indicate that foreign investment might be a channel through which institutions afiect long run development

international real business cycles we ask whether a two country real business cycle model can account simultaneously for domestic and international aspects of business cycles with this question in mind we document a number of discrepancies between theory and data the most striking discrepancy concerns the correlations of consumption and output across countries in the data outputs are generally more highly correlated across countries than consumptions in the model we see the opposite

household childcare choices and women s work behavior in russia the author models mothers participation in the labor force their working hours and household demand for childcare in russia the model estimates the effects of the price of childcare mothers wages and household income on household behavior and well being the theoretical model yields several predictions to test these reduced form equations of the discrete and continuous household choices are estimated jointly using the method of semi parametric full information maximum likelihood this method controls for the correlation of error terms across outcomes and the correlation of error terms that can result when panel data are used the results of this analysis indicate that the extent to which mothers participate in the labor force and for how many hours depends on the costs of childcare and on what level of hourly wage is available to them and to other members of the household the author s simulations show that family allowances intended to reduce poverty do not significantly affect the household choice of childcare arrangements replacing family allowances with childcare subsidies might have a strong positive effect on women s participation in the labor force and thus could be effective in reducing poverty

does financial globalization promote risk sharing article i nfo in theory one of the main benefits of financial globalization is that it should allow for more efficient international risk sharing in this paper we provide an empirical evaluation of the patterns of risk sharing among different groups of countries and examine how international financial integration has affected the evolution of these patterns using a variety of empirical techniques we conclude that there is at best a modest degree of international risk sharing and certainly nowhere near the levels predicted by theory in addition only industrial countries have attained better risk sharing outcomes during the recent period of globalization developing countries have by and large been shut out of this benefit even emerging market economies many of which have reduced capital controls and all of which have witnessed large increases in cross border capital flows have seen little change in their ability to share risk we find that the composition of flows may help explain why emerging markets have not been able to realize this presumed benefi to f financial globalization in particular our results suggest that portfolio debt which had dominated the external liability stocks of most emerging markets until recently is not conducive to risk sharing