forecasting the adoption of residential ductless heat pumps energy efficient technologies have the potential to provide savings to households and utilities but consumers do not always adopt these innovations over traditional technologies the ductless heat pump dhp is one such technology designed to increase energy efficiency and comfort in space conditioning dhp adoption by single family residences in the pacific northwest of the united states is investigated by quantifying the effects of utility provided rebates and expenditures on activities such as advertising and installer training on the number of installations and forecasting installations through 2018 the number of installations is elastic with respect to net installation costs and inelastic with respect to expenditures given the proposed rebate budgets doubling the current rebate is necessary to maximize installations through 2018

the role of feelings in investor decision making abstract this paper surveys the research on the influence of investor feelings on equity pricing and also develops a theoretical basis with which to understand the emerging findings of this area the theoretical basis is developed with reference to research in the fields of economic psychology and decision making recent advancements in understanding how feelings affect the general decision making of individuals especially under conditions of risk and uncertainty e g loewenstein et al 2001 psychological bulletin 127 267 286 are covered by the review the theoretical basis is applied to analyze the existing research on investor feelings e g kamstra et al 2000 american economic review forthcoming hirshleifer and shumway 2003 journal of finance 58 3 1009 1032 this research can be broadly described as investigating whether variations in feelings that are widely experienced by people influence investor decision making and consequently lead to predictable patterns in equity pricing the paper concludes by suggesting a number of directions for future empirical and theoretical research

effectiveness of fertilizer policy reforms to enhance food security in kenya a macro micro simulation analysis food security represents a key challenge in most sub saharan african countries and in kenya in particular where still a relevant share of the population lives below a minimum dietary energy consump

can education subsidy reverse falling fertility the case of taiwan abstract the education subsidy in taiwan is available for government employees only in 1996 the government ceased to index the education subsidy for inflation which created a natural experiment ideal for studying the effect of the education subsidy on fertility using the difference in differences approach we find that the reform reduced the fertility probability for public sector households by 17 per cent and this negative response appears to be permanent the estimated probability elasticity of fertility is 0 05 which is smaller than that of personal tax exemption 0 8 the results also suggest that the education subsidy has a heterogeneous effect on fertility across income groups

economic mobility and poverty dynamics in developing countries this study provides an introduction to this special issue of the journal of development studies on economic mobility and poverty dynamics in developing countries in addition to providing a conceptual framework it outlines how the contributions fit into the extant literature a series of regularities emerge across these studies the poor consist of those who are always poor poor at all dates and those who move in and out of poverty with the latter group tending to be strikingly large such movements in and out of poverty are apparent when looking at poverty in either absolute or relative terms changes in returns to endowments can be a potent source of increased incomes finally seemingly transitory shocks can have long term consequences the study concludes by drawing out the policy implications of these regularities

economic development and income inequality further evidence on the u curve hypothesis abstract internationally comparable data on inequality and income are utilized to reassess the empirical status of kusnets u curve hypothesis the hypothesis seems well supported when both developed countries dcs and less developed countries lcds are included in the sample however the position changes rather dramatically if the sample is restricted to lcds and very small support for the hypothesis is then observed also a simple comparison indicates that some of the support reported in earlier studies may have been due to the use of conventional gross domestic product per capita in general results based on gini coefficient seem less favorable to the hypothesis than those derived from household income shares

do stronger intellectual property rights increase innovation summary do stronger intellectual property rights ipr increase innovation recent decades have seen a global transformation in ipr standards underpinned by the theory that stronger iprs spur increased incentives to innovate this study tests the impact of ever more rigorous ipr systems on innovation through an index of economic complexity of 94 countries from 1965 to 2005 our results confirm that stronger intellectual property systems engender higher levels of economic complexity nevertheless only countries with an initial above average level of development and complexity enjoy this effect

distributional effects of wto agricultural reforms in rich and poor countries rich countries agricultural trade policies are the battleground on which the future of the wto s troubled doha round will be determined subject to widespread criticism they nonetheless appear to be almost immune to serious reform and one of their most common defenses is that they protect poor farmers the authors findings reject this claim the analysis uses detailed data on farm incomes to show that major commodity programs are highly regressive in the united states and that the only serious losses under trade reform are among large wealthy farmers in a few heavily protected subsectors in contrast analysis using household data from 15 developing countries indicates that reforming rich countries agricultural trade policies would lift large numbers of developing country farm households out of poverty in the majority of cases these gains are not outweighed by the poverty increasing effects of higher food prices among other households agricultural reforms that appear feasible even under an ambitious doha round achieve only a fraction of the benefits for developing countries that full liberalization promises but protect u s large farms from most of the rigors of adjustment finally the analysis indicates that maximal trade led poverty reductions occur when developing countries participate more fully in agricultural trade liberalization

trade policy and income inequality new evidence abstract this paper uses recently available data to investigate the link between income inequality and trade protection it finds that among less developed countries more open economies experienced increased income inequality during the late 1980s trade policy has had no effect on income inequality in developed countries

persistent expected and innate poverty estimates for semi arid rural south india 1975 1984 this paper uses nine years of panel data on 170 rural households in southern india to calculate intertemporal measures of poverty these include measures of 1 expected poverty that identify households likely to remain poor on average during any year 2 innate poverty that identify households that are poor owning to deep rooted characteristics that cannot easily be changed in the short run and 3 persistent poverty that identify households whose incomes fall below a fixed poverty line over a number of years the poverty rates estimated for the sample with the three measures are 61 percent 48 percent and 22 percent respectively c 1993 academic press inc copyright 1993 by oxford university press

an economic or political kuznets curve this paper examines two closely related empirical hypotheses an economic kuznets curve and a political kuznets curve we find a robust inverted u relationship between income inequality and political development but not one between income inequality and economic development exploring the cross section aspect of the panel data we find that the economic kuznets curve is sensitive to different control specifications and to different functional specifications but the political kuznets curve is robust using dynamic panel data estimation we find that the economic kuznets curve does not hold up intertemporally while the political kuznets curve does

does trade liberalization promote regional disparities evidence from a multiregional cge model of india summary over last few decades there has been a growing interest among researchers in understanding the link between trade liberalization and regional disparities within the context of an individual country in this study we develop the first ever single country multiregional computable general equilibrium cge model for the indian economy to investigate this linkage overall our results suggest that in the short run trade liberalization has a beneficial impact on the rich and fast growing middle income states and a marginal or negative impact on the poor states

openness external risk and volatility implications for the compensation hypothesis a central assumption in the globalization literature is that economic openness generates economic insecurity and volatility based on this assumption schol ars of international political economy have proposed the compensation hypothesis which claims that globalization bolsters rather than undermines the welfare state by increasing public demand for social protection against externally generated eco nomic instability the openness volatility link is dubious however on both theoret ical and empirical grounds in this study i revisit the volatility assumption focusing on a crucial difference between openness and external risk in their effect on volatil ity my statistical analysis of a panel data set from 175 countries 1950 2002 finds a consistent effect of external risk on volatility of the major economic aggregates but a largely insignificant effect of openness these findings suggest that economic volatility may be a mistaken link in explaining the openness spending nexus calling for further research on the causal mechanisms linking the two the general growth of government in the post world war ii era is one of the most important empirical regularities in political science measured by general govern ment consumption or sectoral expenditures government size grew dramatically during most of the postwar period intrigued by this phenomenal government growth political scientists offered numerous accounts some viewing this growth as a corollary of economic phenomena such as modernization industrialization income distribution or fiscal illusion and others attributing government growth to political causes such as bureaucratization interest group politics and electoral competition 1

direct tests of the reservation wage property this paper provides the first direct experimental tests of the reservation wages predicted by finite horizon job search models previous indirect tests were based on search duration and search income the authors show that such indirect tests are weak by demonstrating that a naive rule performs essentially as well as the risk neutral model in predicting search duration in contrast direct tests of predicted reservation wages imply rejections of both the naive rule and the risk neutral model the general concave model survives direct tests with reservation wage data as does a specific logistic concave model copyright 1992 by royal economic society

changes in income inequality and the black market premium is a high black market premium for us dollars associated with rising or falling income inequality within a nation this paper empirically examines this issue within a cross section of countries and finds that the black market premium is strongly associated with rising income inequality as measured by changes in the gini coefficient others have used the black market premium as a proxy to measure protectionist policies so a possible implication is that protectionist policies further skew the distribution of income within a country however other measures of protectionist policies are not associated with changes in income inequality instead other factors which might drive the black market premium such as interest rate differentials appear to be more relevant in explaining why the black market premium is positively related with increases in income inequality

china s uneven progress against poverty while the incidence of extreme poverty in china fell dramatically over 1980 2001 progress was uneven over time and across provinces rural areas accounted for the bulk of the gains to the poor though migration to urban areas helped the pattern of growth mattered rural economic growth was far more important to national poverty reduction than urban economic growth agriculture played a far more important role than the secondary or tertiary sources of gross domestic product gdp rising inequality within the rural sector greatly slowed poverty reduction provinces starting with relatively high inequality saw slower progress against poverty due both to lower growth and a lower growth elasticity of poverty reduction taxation of farmers and inflation hurt the poor external trade had little short term impact

the theory of taxation for developing countries tax policy has far reaching implications for economic development and public administration this book which presents a modern theory of public finance brings together many of the most distinguished economists who have written on the subject they provide coherent principles for tax design and a systematic framework for the analysis of practical questions of tax reform and pricing policy in developing countries the book is especially timely as countries experience increasing shortages of government revenue and the distortions brought about by poorly designed tax systems it pays particular attention to the special problems of developing countries such as the taxation of agriculture the aim throughout is to develop techniques that can be quantitatively applied given the data available and empirical case studies illustrate the methods in action the authors analyze the links between tax theory social cost benefit analysis and the pricing of publicly supplied goods and services they also explore the empirical and econometric problems of identifying the tradeoffs between equity and efficiency other topics treated include the analysis of labor markets the taxation of foreign private investment and of fuel and the pricing of education although the models used concentrate on developing countries most of the methods and discussion apply as well to the problems of more affluent countries

changes in the world distribution of income between 1950 and 1977 trends in the world distribution of income are much discussed and philosophised about the issue of increasing economic inequality among nonsocialist countries in the post war period is central to the debate about the international economic order in i969 the pearson commission report was already pointing to the widening gap between the developed and developing countries as a central issue of our time and was proposing the reduction of that gap as the main objective of international co operation according to that report gnp per capita had increased between i960 and i967 at annual rates of 2 5 and 3 6 in developing and developed countries respectively morawetz i978 found that the gap between the two sets of countries rose from i 2 6 fold in i950 to i3 2 fold in i975 other authors see a more complicated picture atkinson i975 for instance has argued that although the share of poor countries in world income probably declined between i950 and i970 that of the countries at the middle of the world distribution probably increased 2 what may be a mere assessment of relative growth performances among nonsocialist countries becomes a basic theoretical element in the radical stream of economic literature for authors like amin i974 emmanuel i972 and frank i978 the capitalist mode of development necessarily leads to the rich countries of the centre becoming richer and poor countries of the periphery becoming poorer in a degree depending on their involvement in international trade for them a widening gap between developed and developing countries is simply the statistical confirmation of an unavoidable consequence of the national and international capitalist system in the latter perspective the issue at stake is of such importance that the contrast between the abundance of theoretical literature and the lack of empirical work is striking the few existing studies of changes in world distribution provide an inadequate picture intra country income distributions are not taken into account observation periods do not exceed i5 years 8 for andic and peacock i96i and for beckerman and bacon i970 i5 for kirman and tomasini i969 socialist as well as some non socialist countries are excluded and national incomes are converted to u s dollars at official exchange rates 3 finally none of these studies covers the i970s although several shocks which might have affected world distribution occurred during that decade for the non socialist countries to which they refer the andic peacock and beckerman bacon studies found the gini coefficient almost constant over

the time varying garch in mean model i propose an estimation strategy for the stochastic time varying risk premium parameter in the context of a time varying garch in mean tvgarch in mean model a monte carlo study shows that the proposed algorithm has good finite sample properties using monthly excess returns on the crsp index i document that the risk premium parameter is indeed time varying and shows high degree of persistence

assessing the impact of unilateral trade policies eba and agoa on african beneficiaries exports using matching econometrics the existing literature studying the impact of non reciprocal preferential trade agreements nrptas assumes implicitly nrptas are non randomly assigned without showing the evidence of that using a matching methodology this paper investigates whether the african growth and opportunity act agoa and the everything but arms eba unilateral trade concessions have had an impact and in what magnitude on the exports of african beneficiary countries in the light of the evidence of the non random nature endogeneity of nrptas methodologically previous studies using the matching procedure focused on bi or multilateral trade agreements our work focuses on nrptas that depend only on donors conditions accordingly we show that for nrptas gravity covariates cannot be used for the matching procedure we propose to use political variables as determinants for obtaining non reciprocal trade preferences in order to address the endogenous nature of nrpta assignment our main results confirm that a country becomes eligible for a nrpta only when it meets certain conditions defined by their donors such as political stability and economic regulation for agoa and freedom of expression and human development for eba results also show that both agoa and eba policies have had a positive impact on african beneficiary countries exports to nrpta s providers even if the magnitude impact of eba is significantly lower than that of agoa

energy tax credits and housing improvement this paper investigates whether federal and state tax credits allowed to households who make energy saving improvements to their residence lead to an increase in improvement activity a two period utility maximization model of household behaviour is used to determine the theoretical influence of tax credits energy prices and other factors on the optimal magnitude of conservation capital improvement regressions using various qualitative measures of conservation improvement as the dependent variable are estimated using household level energy consumption and improvement data consistent with evidence from earlier surveys the empirical results do not support the hypothesis that energy tax credits lead to more widespread or more extensive energy conservation improvement activity

a macro micro analysis of the effects of electricity reform in senegal on poverty and distribution abstract this paper uses a computable general equilibrium cge macro micro model to explore the distributional effects of price reform in the electricity sector of senegal in the first part of the paper we analyse the distribution of electricity in senegal by income quintiles between 1995 and 2001 the analysis demonstrates that poor and rural households are not the main beneficiaries of the expanded network the results of the cge model show that direct price effects are weaker than general equilibrium effects on poverty and inequality moreover compensatory policies tested can help attenuate some adverse effects

opening the pandora s box trade openness and informal sector growth this article constructs a labour transition model combining the features of job loss and job creation in the formal sector of an economy the theoretical model examines the impact of trade liberalization on net job transition from formal to informal sector in the light of our model we establish certain pre conditions based on simulations under which trade liberalization is accompanied by rising informal sector the model outcome conforms to the empirical evidence of rising informality with openness which we find in 18 central eastern european and former soviet union countries

estimating the dynamics and persistence of financial networks with an application to the sterling money market summary we propose a novel methodology for dynamic econometric modelling of large financial networks subject to persistence structural changes and sparsity we estimate bivariate dynamic tobit type models for each pair of banks allowing for deterministic or stochastic time varying parameters and then aggregate across all bank pairs to tackle the high dimensionality of the model we construct a few lagged variables that efficiently summarize the position of a bank pair in the network we propose a simple and computationally easy kernel based local maximum likelihood estimator of the time varying parameters of the model and establish its asymptotic properties we then apply the model to the time series of daily overnight money market network in the uk 2003 2012 the results show that our model can successfully accommodate the numerous structural breaks arising from changes to the monetary framework and captures well the dynamics of the interbank lending relationships in this period copyright 2015 john wiley sons ltd

new ways of looking at old issues inequality and growth abstract the paper uses new cross country data on income and asset land distribution to show that i there is a strong negative relationship between initial inequality in the asset distribution and long term growth ii inequality reduces income growth for the poor but not for the rich and iii available longitudinal data provide little support for the kuznets hypothesis policies that increase aggregate investment and facilitate acquisition of assets by the poor might thus be doubly beneficial for growth and poverty reduction

a review on biogas technology and its contributions to sustainable rural livelihood in ethiopia abstract biogas technology has uneven dissemination over the globe the technology is at its infant stage of development and dissemination in many developing countries while china has the largest implementation record the principal factors controlling its dissemination include policies and institutions financial constraint subsidies availability of inputs awareness about the technology consumers considerations and success stories about the technology however biogas technology is a multipurpose technology which assists in addressing economic health social and environmental problems simultaneously thus development and dissemination of the technology certainly minimize energy poverty and improve peoples status in the energy ladder in line with this ethiopia has completed implementing the first phase 2009 2013 of its national biogas programme and has started implementing its second phase during the first phase it was able to disseminate 57 6 the total 14 000 domestic biogas plants planned for the period though the technology was introduced about five decades ago into the country biogas installations constructed prior to the establishment of the national biogas programme were having varied digester models lacked standards and central coordination and their entire number was not more than 1000 this paper reviews the status of dissemination of household biogas technology factors influencing the dissemination of the technology benefits of the technology at global scales energy resources consumption patterns and brief account of the technology at national scale ethiopia

reducing fuel subsidies and the implication on fiscal balance and poverty in indonesia a simulation analysis abstract there is an urgent need for phasing out fuel subsidies in indonesia due to a severe budget deficit and a worsening of income distribution fuel subsidies of which almost 72 are enjoyed by the 30 of the richest income groups have consumed on average 63 8 of the total subsidies between 1998 and 2013 this paper aims at evaluating the relationship between existing fuel subsidies and fiscal balance and at analysing the poverty impact of phasing out fuel subsidies applying a cge microsimulation this study found that removing 25 of fuel subsidies increases the incidence of poverty by 0 259 percentage points if this money were fully allocated to government spending the poverty incidence would decrease by 0 27 percentage points moreover the 100 removal of fuel subsidies and the reallocation of 50 of them to government spending transfers and other subsidies could decrease the incidence of poverty by 0 277 percentage points however these reallocation policies might not be effective in compensating for the adverse impacts of the 100 removal of fuel subsidies if economic agents try to seek profit through mark up pricing over the increase of production costs

innis lecture equity and equality is horizontal equity he the most widely accepted principle of equity or does it stand in opposition to the advancement of human welfare this paper argues that the case for the he principle is not as straightforward as is usually thought and that it requires advanced notions of justice and well being the most likely ethical basis for he appears to combine a rawlsian maximin principle and a view of well being that allows for relative local comparison effects the paper also explores some of the dimensions of equality and well being along which the he principle can be applied and presents a number of examples showing how he considerations can provide an important input into policy analysis le principe d d equite horizontale he constitue t il le principe ethique le plus largement admis ou est il un frein a l avancement du bien etre cet article explique pourquoi les assises ethiques du principe d eh ne sont pas aussi claires qu il est parfois suggere et demontre que ce principe fait plutot appel a des notions avancees de justice et de bien etre les assises morales les plus susceptibles d appuyer le principe d eh semblent combiner un argument de type maximin rawlsien et une perspective du bien etre qui tient compte des effets locaux relatifs de comparaison le papier explore egalement certaines des dimensions de l egalite et du auxquelles le principe d eh peut etre applique et presente un certain nombre d exemples montrant en quoi de considerations de type eh peuvent influencer l analyse de politiques

inequality growth and democracy the analysis of the relationship between inequality and economic growth in distinct politi coeconomic environments has been one of the central preoccupations of the extensive theoretical and empirical work on growth in the last decade the authors argue that the empirical evidence available to date strongly indicates the relevance of this work for understanding the elusive causal connection between economic development and democracy the state of the literature suggests considerable sophistication in conceptualizing the direct economic effects of inequality and contains critical insights into politically unconstrained policy making aimed at the alleviation of their negative economic impact however the political feasibility of the recommended policy measures and the politically mediated effects of inequality and redistributive policy on growth and on the strength and stability of democratic regimes are understood less well the authors discuss the critical factors influencing these effects and sketch several approaches to creating a comprehensive politicoeconomic account of the interaction between inequality redistributive policy making and political regimes

ethnic diversity and poverty we examine the relationship between ethnic diversity and poverty for a cross sectional sample of developing countries we measure diversity using indices of ethnic and linguistic fractionalization and measure poverty using the multidimensional poverty index mpi multidimensional poverty headcount mph intensity of deprivation poverty gap and poverty headcount ratio we find that ethnic and linguistic fractionalization contributes to poverty levels specifically after controlling for endogeneity we find that a standard deviation increase in ethnic fractionalization is associated with a 0 32 0 44 and 0 53 standard deviation increase in the mpi mph and the intensity of deprivation respectively moreover a standard deviation increase in ethnic fractionalization is associated with between a 0 34 and 0 63 standard deviation increase in the population living below 1 90 and 3 10 the poverty gap at 1 90 and 3 10 a day and the headcount ratio at 1 90 and 3 10 a day similar results are also observed for linguistic fractionalization with standardized coefficients between 0 53 and 0 93 we find that our results are robust to alternative ways to measure poverty and ethnic diversity including ethnic polarization as well as alternative approaches to address endogeneity

the distributional impacts of indonesia s financial crisis on household welfare a rapid response methodology analyzing the distributional impacts of economic crises is an ever more pressing need if policymakers are to intervene to help those most adversely affected they need to identify those who have been hurt most and estimate the magnitude of the harm they have suffered they must also respond in a timely manner this article develops a simple methodology for measuring these effects and applies it to analyze the impact of the indonesian economic crisis on household welfare using only pre crisis household information it estimates the compensating variation for indonesian households following the 1997 asian currency crisis and then explores the results with flexible nonparametric methods it finds that virtually every household was severely affected although the urban poor fared the worst the ability of poor rural households to produce food mitigated the worst consequences of the high inflation the distributional consequences are the same whether or not households are permitted to substitute toward relatively cheaper goods households with young children may have suffered disproportionately large adverse effects

looking beyond averages in the trade and poverty debate there has been much debate about how much poor people in developing countries gain from trade openness as one aspect of globalization the paper views the issue through both macro and micro empirical lenses the macro lens uses cross country comparisons and aggregate time series data the micro lens uses household level data combined with structural modeling of the impacts of specific trade reforms case studies are presented for china and morocco both the macro and micro approaches cast doubt on some widely heard generalizations from both sides of the globalization debate additionally the micro lens indicates considerable heterogeneity in the welfare impacts of trade openness with both gainers and losers among the poor a number of covariates of the individual gains are identified the results point to the importance of combining trade reforms with well designed social protection policies

investment in energy efficiency do the characteristics of firms matter the literature on energy efficiency provides numerous examples of apparently profitable technologies that are not universally adopted yet according to the standard neoclassical theory of investment profit maximizing firms should undertake all investments with a positive net present value the standard theory also holds that the discount rate for computing the present value of a project should be the return available on other projects in the same risk class and therefore should not depend on characteristics of the firm this model as applied to energy saving investments is tested by examining whether firms characteristics influence their decision to join the environmental protection agency s voluntary green lights program a discrete choice regression is estimated over a large sample of participating and nonparticipating firms missing values in the data matrix are replaced with multiple imputations from a distribution estimated using the expectation maximization algorithm the results show that 1 sub

do regional trade pacts benefit the poor an illustration from the dominican republic central american free trade agreement in nicaragua the main objective of this paper is to provide an ex ante assessment of the poverty and income distribution impacts of the central american free trade area agreement on nicaragua the authors use a general equilibrium macro model to simulate trade reform scenarios and estimate their price effects while a micro module maps these price changes into real income changes at the individual household level a useful insight from this analysis is that even if the final total impact on poverty is not too large its dispersion across households due to their heterogeneity of factor endowments inputs use commodity production and consumption preferences is significant and should be taken into account when designing compensatory policies additionally growth and redistribution decomposition show that at least in the short to medium run redistribution can be as important as growth the main policy message that emerges from the paper is that nicaragua should consider enlarging its own liberalization to countries other than the united states to boost trade induced poverty reductions

distributional impacts of carbon pricing a general equilibrium approach with micro data for households article i nfo many policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions have at their core efforts to put a price on carbon emissions carbon pricing impacts households both by raising the cost of carbon intensive products and by changing factor prices a complete analysis requires taking both effects into account the impact of carbon pricing is determined by heterogeneity in household spending patterns across income groups as well as heterogeneity in factor income patterns across income groups it is also affected by precise formulation of the policy how is the revenue from carbon pricing distributed as well as the treatment of other government policies e g the treatment of transfer payments what is often neglected in analyses of policy is the heterogeneity of impacts across households even within income or regional groups in this paper we incorporate 15 588 households from the u s consumer and expenditure survey data as individual agents in a comparative static general equilibrium framework these households are represented within the mit usrep model a detailed general equilibrium model of the u s economy in particular we categorize households by full household income factor income as well as transfer income and apply various measures of lifetime income to distinguish households that are temporarily low income e g retired households drawing down their financial assets from permanently low income households we also provide detailed within group distributional measures of burden impacts from various policy scenarios

income distribution factor endowments and trade openness abstract this paper studies the empirical links among factor endowments trade and personal income distribution by using panel data we show that land and capital intensive countries have a less equal income distribution while skill intensive countries have a more equal income distribution we also show that the effects of trade openness on inequality depend on factor endowments in a way consistent with several recent case studies but not with the simple hecksher ohlin framework our results are robust to the division of the sample according to level of income the inclusion of different regressors the use of different measures of trade openness and of relative factor abundance and tests for possible problems of endogeneity

promise and pitfalls in the use of secondary data sets income inequality in oecd countries as a case study this paper examines the role of secondary data sets in empirical economic research taking the field of income distribution as a case study we illustrate problems faced by users of secondary statistics showing how both cross country comparisons and time series analysis can depend sensitively on the choice of data after describing the genealogy of secondary data sets on income inequality we consider the main methodological issues and discuss their implications for comparisons of income inequality across oecd countries and over time the lessons to be drawn for the construction and use of secondary data sets are summarized at the end of the paper

the distributional impacts of an energy boom in western canada in the energy rich region of western canada inequality rose over the past two decades while poverty declined begging the question of whether the recent energy boom was a contributing factor this study uses measures of inequality and poverty across local labor markets that vary in energy extraction intensity to identify these distributional impacts the evidence shows that overall the boom increased inequality and decreased poverty there are however a few notable cases where these relationships are reversed the significance and relative magnitude of growth across and between distributional segments were consistent with these findings

trade policy review for china continuing globalisation amidst the world financial crisis the 2008 world financial crisis had led many industrialised countries to endure a significant decline in their gdps though the chinese government arranged a 4 trillion rmb stimulus package coupled with 30 trillion rmb of new bank credits in 2008 2010 to mitigate the impact of the world financial crisis the growth of china s international trade declined to a single digit level after 10 years of rapid growth at more than 20 per annum since its wto accession the latest wto trade policy review for china is a timely piece of literature which provides excellent information on china s current economic situation its trade and investment policies and government s priorities of policy support in this article we intend to reveal the latest development in the chinese economy from the second half of 2011 and to predict what it may happen in the next a couple of years china s determination to go global has not faded and china can only become more open in the future

development and distribution a critique of the cross country u hypothesis abstract this paper questions the validity of a modern paradigm viz the u hypothesis it argues that notwithstanding contrary claims the recent cross country econometric studies by ahluwalia and others have little in common from a methodological point of view with kuznets earlier intertemporal national studies ahluwalia s cross country u curve is found to be based on defective statistics and questionable methodological premises in specific the estimation of one u curve from observations on both ldcs and dcs is criticised a sample restricted to the ldc group considerably weakens support for the u hypothesis further even marginal variations in the data set lead to the virtual disappearance of ahluwalia s empirical relationship the paper concludes that the cross country u hypothesis is more of a hindrance than an aid to our comprehension of the relationship between economic growth and income distribution

the shape of the risk premium we examine the relationship between the risk premium on the center for research on security prices crsp value weighted index total return and its conditional variance we propose a new semiparametric model in which the conditional variance process is parametric and the conditional mean is an arbitrary function of the conditional variance for monthly crsp value weighted excess returns the relationship between the two moments that we uncover is nonlinear and nonmonotonic

is there a social kuznets curve the influence of labour standards on inequality abstract this study empirically investigates the impact of core labour standards on income inequality for a range of 90 countries from 1990 2000 a synthetic index of labour standards is computed by means of a multiple correspondence analysis and no significant correlation is found with the gini index one of the reasons pointed out is that the effective implementation of core labour standards depends on the quality of the country s political and legal systems using instrumental variables in a tsls model we found an inverse u shaped curve between the new endogenous index of core labour standards and income inequality

the evolution of inequality after trade liberalization abstract the paper presents a general framework for the analysis of the evolution of personal income distribution following trade liberalization the model allows many factors of production and the possibility of capital gains in this framework the short run evolution of inequality depends on the wage to wealth ratio while changes in the interest rate determine the changes in long run inequality the general framework is applied to the dynamic specific factors model of eaton rev econ stud vliv 1987 in this model the land labor ratio determines whether a country exports the land using or the capital using good in the long run the type of the export good determines the effects of liberalization on inequality in land labor abundant countries inequalities increase decrease along the dynamic path the model provides an explanation for the differences between latin american and asian countries in their response to trade liberalization econometric analysis provides mixed results for these predictions with the correct signs but non significant coefficients for the coefficient on the interaction between openness and the land labor ratio

distributional effects of the panama canal expansion this paper uses a dynamic macro micro framework to evaluate the potential distributional effects of the expansion of the panama canal the results show that large macroeconomic effects are only likely during the operations phase 2014 and onwards and income gains are likely to be concentrated at the top of the income distribution the additional foreign exchange inflows during construction and operations phases result in the loss of competitiveness of non canal sectors dutch disease and in higher domestic prices which hurt the poorest consumers in addition the construction and operation activities increase demand for more educated non farm formal workers although these changes encourage additional labor movement out of agriculture and from the informal to the formal sector much of the impact is manifested in growing wage disparities and widening income inequality using the additional revenues of the canal expansion in a targeted cash transfer program such as red de oportunidades the government of panama could offset the adverse distributional effects and eradicate extreme poverty

unemployment insurance and disability insurance in the great recession social security disability insurance ssdi awards rise during recessions if marginal applicants are able to work but unable to find jobs countercyclical unemployment insurance ui benefit extensions may reduce ssdi uptake exploiting ui extensions in the great recession as a source of variation we find no indication that expiration of ui benefits causes ssdi applications and can rule out effects of meaningful magnitude a supplementary analysis finds little overlap between the two programs recipient populations only 28 of ssdi awardees had any labor force attachment in the prior calendar year and of those only 4 received ui

technology adoption subsidies an experiment with managers we evaluate the impact of technology adoption subsidies on investment behavior in an individual choice experiment in a laboratory setting professional managers are confronted with an intertemporal decision problem in which they have to decide whether or not to search for and possibly adopt a new technology technologies differ in the per period benefits they yield and their purchase price increases with the per period benefits provided we introduce a subsidy on the more expensive technologies that also yield larger per period benefits and find that the subsidy scheme induces agents to search for and adopt these more expensive technologies even though the subsidy itself is too small to render these technologies profitable we speculate that the result is driven by the positive connotation affect that the concept subsidy invokes

energy tax credits and residential conservation investment evidence from panel data using panel data on individual tax returns and variation in state tax policy we measure the impact of government tax policies to encourage residential conservation investment on the probability of making these investments unlike previous work we account for unobserved heterogeneity in tastes for energy saving activities and its possible correlation with tax policy at the state level we find that controlling for unobserved heterogeneity is very important based on our preferred point estimate of the tax price coefficient a 10 percentage point change in the tax price for energy investment would lead to a 24 percent increase in the probability of making an investment

economic search an experimental study this paper presents results of experiments designed to test several of the hypotheses present in the theoretical literature on optimal economic search first we test whether the subjects searchers actually search for wages in ways that are consistent with setting an optimal reservation wage we then proceed to determine experimentally the effects of risk aversion increased search costs changes in risk brought about by a mean preserving transformation of the distribution of wage offers the presence or absence of recall the existence of a finite horizon and the searcher s state of knowledge about the underlying distribution of wages in general we find that the searchers exhibit behavior that is consistent with that predicted by theory differences between risk neutral and risk averse searchers are found and the responses of both groups to changes in search costs in the degree of risk or in the state of knowledge are consistent with theoretical predictions

social divisions and institutions assessing institutional parameter variation this paper investigates the hypothesis that the association between property rights institutions and income is weaker in countries with high social divisions it argues that social divisions should have a negative effect on perceived institutional inclusiveness which in turn should depress institutional payoffs absent a property rights indicator that captures the perceived inclusiveness of institutions social divisions should then weaken the observed association between property rights institutions and income the empirical results support this hypothesis and highlight the importance of evaluating whether the institutions measure used captures the institutional framework applying to the population at large

rice prices and income distribution in thailand a non parametric analysis rice is a staple crop in thailand significantly entering both household production and consumption this paper examines the effect of rice prices on the distribution of real income across households taking into account household characteristics and geographical location the data set is a large scale survey of 11 893 households simple nonparametric techniques for regression and density estimation are used these methods depend on few assumptions and generate flexible graphical results that are directly informative about the problem at hand the main results are that higher rice prices should benefit all rural households but the largest benefits accrue to rural households in the middle of the income distribution copyright 1989 by royal economic society

distributional and regional economic impact of energy taxes in belgium we analyse the macroeconomic and distributional effects of increased oil excises in belgium by combining a regional computable general equilibrium cge model with a microsimulation framework that exploits the rich detail of household level data the link between the cge model and the microlevel is top down feeding changes in commodity prices factor returns and employment by sector into a microsimulation model the results suggest that policymakers face an equity efficiency trade off driven by the choice of revenue recycling options when the additional revenue is used to raise welfare transfers to households the reform is beneficial for lower income groups but output levels decrease in all regions however when the energy tax revenue is used to lower distortionary labour taxes the tax shift is slightly regressive in this case national gdp is hardly affected but regional production levels diverge the impact of the environmental tax reform on income distribution depends strongly on changes in factor prices and welfare payments whereas sector composition is an important determinant for regional impact variation

smallholder livelihood adaptation in the context of neoliberal policy reforms a case of maize farmers in southern veracruz mexico governments around the world have embraced trade liberalisation as a means of enhancing efficiency to realise economic growth and alleviate poverty likewise the mexican government implemented neoliberal policy reforms the nafta in particular to stimulate sustainable development using the mexican maize sector as illustration this article describes the adaptation process of smallholders to market changes shaped by these reforms going beyond the aggregated level we have investigated smallholders livelihood strategies contrary to what economic models estimated our data suggests that farmers intensified the cultivation of maize rather than switch to sectors in which mexico has a comparative advantage

paths to success the relationship between human development and economic growth summary this paper explores the two way relationship between economic growth eg and human development hd we develop panel data strategies to estimate the strength of these relationships and find that hd plays an essential role in determining growth trajectories our measure of sustained growth not only is hd a final product in the sense that it measures basic human well being but it is also a critical input into eg our findings illustrate the empirical relevance of endogenous growth and are consistent with threshold effect models our results imply that successful policy requires an early focus on hd not only because of its direct impact but also because of its feedback effect on sustaining eg

labour market institutions and the personal distribution of income in the oecd we examine what determines differences across countries and over time in the distribution of personal incomes in the oecd we first model the wage determination process and show that unemployment the labour share and the wage differential are all functions of labour market institutions next we show that in a model economy with only four types of agents capitalists skilled and unskilled workers and unemployed the gini coefficient of personal incomes can be expressed as a function of the above three variables labour market institutions hence affect income inequality though the sign of their impact is ambiguous stronger unions and or a more generous unemployment benefit tend to reduce inequality through reduced wage differentials a higher labour share and also higher unemployment we then use a panel of oecd countries for the period 1970 96 to examine these effects we find first that the labour share remains an important aspect of overall inequality patterns and second that stronger unions and a more generous unemployment benefit tend to reduce income inequality high capital labour ratios also emerge as a strong equalising factor which has in part offset the impact of increasing wage inequality on the us distribution of personal incomes

modelling demand for crude oil products in spain this paper develops an econometric model for the five most important crude oil products demand in spain the aim is the estimation of a range of elasticities of such demands that would serve as the basis for an applied general equilibrium model used for forecasting energy demand in a broader framework the main distinctive features of the system with respect to previous literature are i it takes advantage of monthly information coming from very different information sources and ii multivariate unobserved components uc models are implemented allowing for a separate analysis of long and short run relations uc models decompose time series into a number of unobserved though economic meaningful components mainly trend seasonal and irregular a module is added to such structure to take into account the influence of exogenous variables necessary to compute price cross and income elasticities since all models implemented are multivariate in nature the demand components are allowed to interact among them through the system noises similar to a seemingly unrelated equations model the results show unambiguously that the main factor driving demand is real income with prices having little impact on energy consumption

income distribution development and foreign trade a cross sectional analysis abstract this paper analyses cross sectional evidence on income inequality in developing countries within a consistent theoretical framework where the major explanatory variables are factor endowments their ownership structure and foreign trade distortions the resulting explanation of cross country differences in income distribution is considerably better than what is found in the existing literature endowments in mineral resources land concentration in agricultural exports trade protection and secondary schooling are shown to be major determinants of differences in income inequality across developing countries

do patent rights matter 40 years of innovation complexity and productivity abstract does the rigorous protection of patents advance or retard economic development two decades ago a new global standard of intellectual property swept across developing and industrialized nations through the implementation of the wto s trips agreement many years later the issue of patent rights remains contentious in this paper we focus on the effects of patent rights systems on total factor productivity growth using dynamic panel regression analysis for 70 countries from 1965 to 2009 we show that the effects of stronger or more rigorous patent systems are insignificant for productivity growth in both developing and industrialized countries why does the strength of patents appear to have no impact on productivity classic economic theory suggests that stronger patent systems incentive innovative output with important spill over effects for productivity and growth we offer an alternative explanation using data from the economic complexity index we find that while patents rights are increasingly irrelevant to productivity the relationship between economic complexity and productivity is highly positive and significant our results are consistent with the contributions of the absorptive capacity theory in that they suggest it is not the discovery and ownership of novel products and processes at the innovative frontier that induces productive growth but the ability to adapt replicate and diffuse along the international productive chain

geographic poverty traps a micro model of consumption growth in rural china how important are neighbourhood endowments of physical and human capital in explaining diverging fortunes over time for otherwise identical households in a developing rural economy to answer this question we develop an estimable micro model of consumption growth allowing for constraints on factor mobility and externalities whereby geographic capital can influence the productivity of a household s own capital our statistical test has considerable power in detecting geographic effects given that we control for latent heterogeneity in measured consumption growth rates at the micro level we find robust evidence of geographic poverty traps in farm household panel data from post reform rural china our results strengthen the equity and efficiency case for public investment in lagging poor areas in this setting copyright 2002 john wiley sons ltd

are there lessons for africa from china s success against poverty at the outset of china s reform period the country had a far higher poverty rate than for africa as a whole within five years that was no longer true this paper tries to explain how china escaped from a situation in which extreme poverty persisted due to failed and unpopular policies while acknowledging that africa faces constraints that china did not and that context matters two lessons stand out the first is the importance of productivity growth in smallholder agriculture which will require both market based incentives and public support the second is the role played by strong leadership and a capable public administration at all levels of government

food price surges and poverty in urban colombia new evidence from household survey data abstract the present study simulates the impacts of price surges in 2006 2008 on poverty in the main colombian cities drawing upon household survey data it is found that the price surges increased both extreme and moderate poverty in urban areas but the magnitude of poverty rise was not homogeneous across geographical locations or in terms of household characteristics such as education or gender of the household head as a policy option we suggest geographical targeting or demographic targeting that will select and support poor households by locations or socio demographic characteristics guided by the degree of household vulnerability to food price shocks

tariff rates tariff revenue and tariff reform some new facts this article compares the statutory and valorem tariff rates official rates with the ratio of tariff revenues to import values collected rates for jamaica kenya and pakistan it identifies four general features of the tariff codes considers whether these features apply to all developing countries and discusses four implications of these features for tariff reform first the collected rate for any given item in the tariff code is only weakly related to the official rate for the item second the variation of collected rates on average increase much less than the official rates fourth the relation between official rates and collected rates is nonlinear because the slope is lower at higher levels of the official rate

household inequality social welfare and trade abstract working with sen social welfare functions meaning explicit separability between mean income and income dispersion we develop a generalized dual approach to tracking household inequality aspects of social welfare in general equilibrium we highlight how household equity can be examined analytically alongside production efficiency in duality based models using our dual framework to explore potential trade offs between efficiency and equity effects of trade policy our results complement the set of standard inequality results in trade theory focused on functional rather than household inequality we also find that the relative distributional impact of tariffs on welfare is conditional on the initial level of inequality

welfare impacts of china s accession to the world trade organization data from china s national rural and urban household surveys are used to measure and explain the welfare impacts of changes in goods and factor prices attributable to accession to the world trade organization wto the price changes are estimated separately using a general equilibrium model to capture both direct and indirect effects of the initial tariff changes the welfare impacts are first order approximations based on a household model incorporating own production activities calibrated to household level data and imposing minimum aggregation the results show negligible impacts on inequality and poverty in the aggregate however diverse impacts emerge across household types and regions associated with heterogeneity in consumption behavior and income sources with possible implications for compensatory policy responses

the simultaneous evolution of growth and inequality research on inequality and growth can be divided into two strands one deriving from kuznets and lewis has tried to identify a mechanistic relationship between growth or level of income and inequality the other has tried to find causal explanations of growth and inequality treating each independently in this paper we draw from both strands to test whether growth and inequality are the joint outcomes of other variables and processes we find that simultaneous examination of growth and inequality yields significantly different results and has different consequences for policy from previous independent studies the empirical literature on growth and inequality can be divided into two broad strands one following the pioneering work of kuznets and lewis is motivated by the pessimistic conjecture that the process of growth and development somehow requires increasing inequality at least in the early stages this has led to many efforts to identify a mechanical relationship between the level of development and inequality anand and kanbur 1993 or to determine whether faster growth requires higher or lower inequality the second strand has sought to identify the causal factors influencing the evolution of growth and inequality independently this research has looked either at growth for example barro and sala i martin 1995 or at inequality li et al 1997 but has not tried to identify those factors that might simultaneously influence both growth and inequality 2 thus the literature that looks simultaneously at growth and inequality descending most notably from kuznets 1955 relates them in a mechanistic manner that ignores or minimises the role of other causal factors including policy while the literature that incorporates other causal factors including policies looks independently at growth and inequality neither approach is particularly convincing from a theoretical standpoint the evolution of growth and inequality must surely be the outcome of similar processes in addition neither approach is particularly useful for the policy maker who needs to balance the impact of policies on both growth and distribution in this paper we investigate whether growth and inequality are simultaneously determined and if so whether or not they are subject to

financial development financial structure and income inequality in china using panel data of 23 provinces during the period 1996 2012 this paper investigates the impacts of financial development and structure on income inequality in different administrative districts urban rural and overall in china the results produced by the dynamic generalised method of moments estimator provide some evidence for a linear and inverse u shape relationship between financial development and income inequality and increasing the relative importance of financial markets to banks helps to reduce income inequality furthermore the results of panel threshold regressions show that the benefits of financial development only occur if the stock market activity has reached a threshold level and disappear if the stock market capitalisation has reached a certain scale meanwhile the impact of the financial structure weakens as the financial development expands and the proportion of financial markets increases we also find that the impacts of financial development and structure on rural income inequality are stronger than those on urban income inequality