fiscal federalism and redistributive politics abstract we consider the interaction between redistributive politics at central and local levels in a federal system and characterize the factors influencing success in redistributive politics in both federal and unitary systems we examine how the political characteristics of different states and groups give them better or worse outcomes in a federal system as opposed to a unitary system we examine possibilities of multiple equilibria with divided government between the two layers we analyze the choice between block grants and matching grants we also examine the impact of federalism on the incentives for geographic mobility

borders and business cycles abstract we document that business cycles of u s census regions are substantially more synchronized than those of european countries data from regions within european countries confirm a european border effect within country correlations are substantially larger than cross country correlations these results continue to hold after controlling for exogenous factors such as distance and size we consider the role of four factors that have received attention in the debate about emu sectoral specialization the level of trade monetary policy and fiscal policy we find that the lower level of trade between european countries explains most of the observed border effect

a political economy theory of partial decentralization we revisit the classic problem of tax competition in the context of federal nations and derive a positive theory of partial decentralization a capital poor median voter chooses to use redistributive capital taxes to provide public goods the expectation of high capital taxes however results in a small capital stock which lowers returns to redistribution the median voter therefore wants to commit to a lower level of capital taxes she does so by setting a partial degree of decentralization in the constitution the equilibrium degree of decentralization balances the positive effect of tax competition on capital taxes with the loss in redistribution that results we show that the degree of decentralization is nonmonotonic in inequality increasing in the redistributive efficiency of public good provision and decreasing in capital productivity when public goods are heterogeneous in their capacity to transfer funds all voters agree that goods with high redistributive capacity should be decentralized

status seeking and material affluence evaluating the hirsch hypothesis abstract when individuals hold a preference for high relative consumption competition to achieve social status can lead to inefficiently high levels of production and consumption contributing to natural resource depletion and environmental degradation in the 1970s fred hirsch argued that an increasing portion of expenditure is allocated to status seeking as average income rises this paper critiques this hypothesis from two points of view first we note examples from the historical and anthropological literatures suggesting that status seeking is often important in societies with relatively low incomes second we consider a set of analytical models that focus on the economic consequences of status seeking when social status is defined in terms of the algebraic difference between an individual s consumption of a status good and the average consumption level in society hirsch s hypothesis holds true and growth in the level of productivity and output can lead to declines in human welfare if on the other hand status is linked to the ratio of individual and average consumption hirsch s hypothesis is valid only if social status and non status goods are poor substitutes the paper also considers two cases in which social status is defined in terms of the amount of time people devote to status oriented activities under this assumption productivity growth leaves time use unchanged though the value of time devoted to status signaling increases in proportion to total expenditure

consistent economic indexes for the 50 states in the late 1980s james stock and mark watson developed for the u s economy an alternative coincident index to the one now published by the conference board they used the kalman filter to estimate a latent dynamic factor for the national economy and designated the common factor as the coincident index this paper uses the stock watson methodology to estimate a consistent set of coincident indexes for the 50 states these indexes provide researchers with a comprehensive monthly measure of economic activity that can be used to examine a number of state and regional issues

who can adjust to the euro this study estimates potential exchange rate variation among 26 european countries during 1992 1998 as a proxy for the potential magnitude of adjustment they face to euro block membership using the instrumental variable iv method applying least squares cross section regression analysis based on optimal currency area theory a currency union among belgium denmark france germany ireland malta the netherlands and slovenia is found to entail a relatively light burden of adjustment for its members the current membership of other countries in the euro block is potentially very demanding on their societies in the long term this study also compares currency boards and independent central banks as alternative monetary frameworks for disinflation policies based on a pooled time series cross section dataset of the same countries and years currency boards are found to be more effective in reducing inflation in all countries except belgium balancing emu s credibility gains against its adjustment costs finland greece italy portugal and spain seem like unstable members of the euro block for all new eu member states except the czech republic malta slovenia and slovakia the advice is to stay out of the euro block until their economies are liberalised and flexible enough to withstand major adjustments and their societal interest groups supportive enough of these adjustments

on the dynamic effects of oil price shocks a study using industry level data abstract this paper analyzes the effects of oil price shocks on demand and supply in various industries the impulse responses of identified var models indicate that for industries that have a large cost share of oil such as petroleum refinery and industrial chemicals oil price shocks mainly reduce supply in contrast for many other industries with the automobile industry being a particularly important example oil price shocks mainly reduce demand the paper suggests that oil price shocks influence economic activities beyond that explained by direct input cost effects possibly by delaying purchasing decisions of durable goods

why don t oil shocks cause inflation evidence from disaggregate inflation data this paper uses disaggregate u s inflation data to evaluate explanations for the breakdown of the relationship between oil price shocks and consumer price inflation a data set with measures of inflation energy intensity labor intensity and sensitivity to monetary policy is constructed for 97 sectors that make up core cpi inflation a comparison of the 1973 85 and 1986 2006 time periods reveals that substitution away from energy use in production and monetary policy were both important with approximately two thirds of the change in response of inflation to oil shocks being due to reduced energy usage and one third to monetary policy we find no evidence that other factors such as changes in wage rigidities or changes in the persistence of oil shocks played a role

european monetary unification a tour d horizon this article takes stock of the literature and debate over european monetary unification in contrast to other papers where it is argued that the issues and prospects remain shrouded in uncertainty i argue that in a number of important areas a reasonable degree of consensus now exists as the result of a decade of scholarship the subsequent stock taking concentrates on areas where significant questions remain starting with the implications of surrendering the exchange rate and an independent national monetary policy as instruments of adjustment the conduct of fiscal policy under the excessive deficit procedure and the stability pact and how quickly the european union is likely to develop an eu wide system of fiscal federalism to accompany its monetary union turning from fiscal to monetary issues i ask whether the european central bank ecb will be as inflation averse as the bundesbank what exchange rate policy the ecb will pursue and whether the euro will be a leading reserve currency i conclude with what may be the most contentious issue of all namely whether europe s monetary union could collapse after it begins

fiscal federalism in europe lessons from the united states experience the existing political and legal institutions of fiscal policy making are under challenge as the united states and the eastern european and soviet states experiment with policy decentralization the states of western europe are looking to a more centralized policy structure via the e e c this paper seeks to raise issues of importance to all such reform efforts notably the need to consider and balance the inefficiencies of fiscal policy decentralization spillovers and wasteful fiscal competition against the inefficiencies of fiscal policy centralization policy cycles and localized pork barrel spending and taxes the need to develop new fiscal policy institutions emphasizing voluntary agreements and responsive agenda setters is stressed robert p inman daniel l rubinfeld department of finance and economics school of law and the wharton school of management department of economics university of pennsylvania university of california philadelphia pa 19104 berkeley ca 94720 and neer fiscal federalism in europe lessons from the united states e perienc by robert p inman and daniel l rubinfeld2 in democratic and totalitarian regimes alike the existing political and legal institutions of economic policy making are under challenge the wisdom of centralized fiscal regimes is now being questioned quietly under the banner of the new federalism in the united states and vocally if not violently through the secessionist movements of eastern europe and the soviet states as these nations experiment with decentralized fiscal institutions the countries of western europe are now looking to the potential of a more centralized economic order within the new european economic community this paper seeks to raise issues of importance to all such reform efforts and within that context to offer some cautionary advise for the design of e e c fiscal institutions based upon the recent american experience with centralized fiscal policy making ii the role for central government fiscal policies in economic unions the european community s progress towards an economic and monetary union the authors wish to thank allesandra casella and barry eichengreen for helpful comments and discussions 2 the authors are professor of finance and economics university of pennsylvania and research associate of the nber and professor of law and economics university of california at berkeley respectively professor rubinfeld gratefully acknowledges the support of the center for real estate and urban economics at the university of california berkeley based upon a common currency will create new demands for the design of fiscal policy 3 perhaps most importantly with a common currency and thus a common monetary policy member states will no longer be able to influence their local economies through exchange rate or monetary policies when state specific economic shocks occur 4 state specific fiscal policies stand as an alternative three questions arise 1 can member state fiscal policies be effective in offsetting local economic shocks in an integrated economic union 2 if effective are such policies likely to be optimally managed at the state level and 3 if ineffective or non optimal what central government policies might be then preferred the recent united states experience is instructive on each point can member state fiscal policies be effective in open integrated economies deficit financed demand creation may be of only limited usefulness to small member states first the demand stimulus of deficit financing is dissipated through import demands from other union states gramlich 1987 has shown that the effectiveness of deficit policies in the smallest u s states is significantly import constrained though larger states may be able to use own deficits to affect state employment prospects second in member states the use of such deficits to combat local shocks may be significantly limited by what the capital markets will allow while deficits may be see eichengreen 1990 there is growing evidence of the economic importance of state specific economic shocks to the short run and long run prospects of states and regions in integrated economic unions see bernard and durlauf 1991 for a study of oecd countries many of which are in the eec and brown coulson and engle 1990 for a study of u s states member states which manage these shocks well are likely to enjoy higher long run growth beneficial to the local economy during downturns and while member states may promise to repay those deficits with surpluses during the upswing such promises are difficult to enforce the u s capital market has appeared reluctant to accept a state s promise of a balanced budget over a business cycle such promises lack credibility when temporary economic downturns are not easily distinguished from long run structural declines when good deficits cannot be distinguished from bad the only credible local government promise may be a balanced budget in each fiscal year the stringent u s state budgets for the recessionary 1992 fiscal year balanced through major tax increases and deep spending cuts offer evidence on the point 5 even if member state deficit policies are economically feasible their management may be non optimal in interdependent economic unions the benefits from local demand creation through deficit financing may spillover to other member states via import expansion while the interest costs of deficits remain with the borrowing state the result will be an under provision of expansionary fiscal policies by member states using the arguments of hart 1982 central government fiscal policies stand as the policy

anarchy and identity is there escape from a self help system realists say no they assume states are egoistic actors in anarchy this means states must either look out for themselves or risk destruction structure generates a self help system constructivists think escape is possible because identities are made not given we should not make a priori assumptions of state egoism process generates self help process could also generate an other help security system this article introduces a third approach that uses social identity theory to argue that interstate relations are inherently competitive thus for cognitive and motivated rather than structural or social reasons competition which can be coercive or cooperative characterizes international politics

multilateral indexed loans and debt sustainability we evaluate the benefits and costs of indexing multilateral loans to variables related to developing countries ability to pay i e whether a reform of multilateral lending is feasible and eco nomically justified the analysis covers 40 international development association ida countries from 1990 to 2010 and focuses on three types of debt gdp indexed loans export indexed loans infla tion indexed loans denominated in local currency the insurance that indexed debt might offer against macroeconomic shocks depends on the conditional covariances of gdp growth real exchange rate depreciation and net exports that we estimate as the covariances of the forecast errors obtained from a vector autoregression var model the analysis shows that both gdp indexed loans and inflation indexed local currency loans would help to stabilize the debt ratio of the majority of ida countries in our sample however the adverse policy incentives created by local currency debt tends to favour gdp indexed debt the cost of indexation would be small the estimation of a capital asset pricing model capm suggests that loans indexed to gdp could be introduced at current interest rates since the estimated risk premium is less than 1 per cent any additional risk for multilateral lenders would be more than offset by a lower frequency of debt crises

pricing and hedging gdp linked bonds in incomplete markets abstract we model the super replication of payoffs linked to a country s gdp as a stochastic linear program on a discrete time and state space scenario tree to price gdp linked bonds as a byproduct of the model we obtain a hedging portfolio using linear programming duality we compute also the risk premium the model applies to coupon indexed and principal indexed bonds and allows the analysis of bonds with different design parameters coupon target gdp growth rate and maturity we calibrate for uk and us instruments and carry out sensitivity analysis of prices and risk premia to the risk factors and bond design parameters we also compare coupon indexed and principal indexed bonds further results with calibrated instruments for germany italy and south africa shed light on a policy question whether the risk premia of these bonds make them beneficial for sovereigns our findings affirm that designs are possible for both coupon indexed and principal indexed bonds that can benefit a sovereign with an advantage for coupon indexed bonds this finding is robust but a nuanced reading is needed due to the many inter related risk factors and design parameters that affect prices and premia

federal fiscal constitutions risk sharing and redistribution the paper studies the political and economic determinants of regional public transfers specifically it focuses on how such transfers are shaped by alternative fiscal constitutions where a constitution is an allocation of fiscal instruments across different levels of governments plus a procedure for the collective choice of these instruments realistic restrictions on fiscal instruments introduce a tradeoff between risk sharing and redistribution different constitutions produce very different results in particular a federal social insurance scheme chosen by voting provides overinsurance whereas an intergovernmental transfer scheme chosen by bargaining provides underinsurance

borders and nominal exchange rates in risk sharing models of risk sharing predict that relative consumption growth rates are positively related to changes in real exchange rates we investigate this hypothesis using a new multicountry and multiregional data set within countries we find evidence for risk sharing episodes of high relative regional consumption growth are associated with regional real exchange rate depreciation across countries however the association is reversed relative consumption and real exchange rates are negatively correlated we define this reversal as a border effect we find the border effect and show that it accounts for over half of the deviations from full risk sharing since cross border real exchange rates involve different currencies it is natural to ask how much of the border effect is accounted for by movements in exchange rates our measures indicate that a large part of the border effect comes from nominal exchange rate fluctuations we develop a simple open economy model that is consistent with the importance of nominal exchange rate variability in accounting for deviations from cross country risk sharing

running to keep in the same place consumer choice as a game of status if individuals care about their status defined as their rank in the distribution of consumption of one positional good then the consumer s problem is strategic as her utility depends on the consumption choices of others in the symmetric nash equilibrium each individual spends an inefficiently high amount on the status good using techniques from auction theory we analyze the effects of exogenous changes in the distribution of income in a richer society almost all individuals spend more on conspicuous consumption and individual utility is lower at each income level in a more equal society the poor are worse off

fiscal federalism and monetary unions a quantitative assessment abstract in this paper i provide a quantitative analysis of three different forms of fiscal federalism in monetary unions fully decentralized regional fiscal authorities as the benchmark fiscal equalization with nominal tax revenue sharing and a common central fiscal authority i assess the capability of the different arrangements to stabilize regional consumption output and employment over the business cycle i also study the implications for interregional income consumption risk sharing and welfare from this analysis the following results emerge first a central fiscal authority stabilizes consumption fluctuations and increases the scope of interregional income and consumption risk sharing second fiscal equalization destabilizes consumption fluctuations and also reduces the scope of interregional income and consumption risk smoothing third a central fiscal authority leads to welfare gains whereas fiscal equalization leads to welfare losses

redistribution and risk sharing in italy learning from the past abstractredistribution and risk sharing in italy learning from the past regional studies this paper investigates the role of public policies in italy by assessing both the redistribution and the risk sharing functions of interregional net fiscal flows in the long run its comparative approach allows one to contrast results obtained for two periods characterized by diverse regional policy and dynamics of regional convergence although based on a specific example the evidence supports more general conclusions when assessing the regional redistributive and risk sharing power of national fiscal policies many different factors related to the existing policy regime should be accounted for particularly the distribution of government spending between current expenditure and public investment

regional non adjustment and fiscal policy asymmetric shocks regional non adjustment and fiscal policy how will countries handle idiosyncratic macroeconomic shocks under the single currency since the regional adjustment patterns currently prevailing within european currency unions are likely to prevail at the national level under the single currency looking at the ways in which european countries react to internally asymmetric shocks today provides a good preview for the answer to that question in this paper we compare the usa with germany italy and the uk and with canada which is closer to europe than the usa in its labour market and fiscal institutions europe s and to some extent canada s model of regional response differs from that of the usa changes in regional real exchange rates are small in all countries outside of the usa however there is more reliance on interregional transfer payments less on labour migration and the pace of regional adjustment appears to be slower if emu aims at the same degree of economic and social cohesion that its constituent nations enjoy today this suggests that its members may find it hard to resist the eventual extension of existing eu mechanisms of income redistribution a transfer union we propose an alternative strategy based on a relaxed stability pact further strictures against central eu borrowing labour market and fiscal reform and the issuance by individual member states of debt indexed to nominal gdp maurice obstfeld and giovanni peri

economic and social security in the twenty first century with attention to europe a partly heuristic attempt at exploring long run policies aimed at a second best compromise between ex ante risk sharing efficiency and ex post productive efficiency wage subsidies for low skilled workers financed by taxes on high wages are advocated together with improved risk sharing between capital and labour between generations and between the countries belonging to emu the scope of the advocated policies is limited by considerations of moral hazard time consistency and fiscal competition also estimates of some key economic parameters remain very imprecise several avenues of further research are identified

this is what happened to the oil price macroeconomy relationship abstract many of the quarterly oil price increases observed since 1985 are corrections to even bigger oil price decreases the previous quarter when one looks at the net increase in oil prices over the year recent data are consistent with the historical correlation between oil shocks and recessions

rationalist explanations for war realist and other scholars commonly hold that rationally led states can and sometimes do fight when no peaceful bargains exist that both would prefer to war against this view i show that under very broad conditions there will exist negotiated settlements that genuinely rational states would mutually prefer to a risky and costly fight popular rationalist and realist explanations for war fail either to address or to explain adequately what would prevent leaders from locating a less costly bargain essentially just two mechanisms can resolve this puzzle on strictly rationalist terms the first turns on the fact that states have both private information about capabilities and resolve and the incentive to misrepresent it the second turns on the fact that in specific strategic contexts states may be unable credibly to commit to uphold a mutually preferable bargain historical examples suggest that both mechanisms are empirically plausible

subnational fiscal balance interregional redistribution and risk sharing in italy abstractthis paper provides new estimates of redistribution and risk sharing across regional territories accomplished by the italian public sector for the first time subnational governments fisc

energy price shocks and economic activity which energy price series should we be using there is not one primary energy market and the price of oil is not a good proxy for many alternative energy prices therefore this paper explores the effects of alternative energy price shocks on economic activity and examines the relative performance of these alternative measures in predicting state level economic activity using the davidson and mackinnon j test the alternative energy price series considered are as follows gasoline diesel natural gas heating oil and electricity alternative measures of energy price shocks produce different patterns of impulse responses than oil price shocks additionally overwhelming evidence indicates that alternative energy price models excluding models containing the price of gasoline outperform the baseline model containing the price of oil for many states particularly at short to mid forecast horizons using alternative energy prices should lead to a more accurate modeling of the energy price macroeconomy relationship

emu enlargement stabilization costs and insurance mechanisms this paper considers the determinants of the macroeconomic costs of joining emu for the new eu member sates and compares them with those of the emu members specifically we investigate the business cycle correlation between the candidate s economy and that of the euro area as a whole and the ability of insurance mechanisms and fiscal policies to smooth income fluctuations the results suggest that emu membership would not be costly for some countries cyprus hungary and malta but for other countries it could have relevant costs at least in the short run for some of these countries business cycles are not yet well synchronized with the euro area s business cycle and risk sharing mechanisms do not provide enough insurance against shocks

the redistributive roles of unemployment insurance and the dynamics of voting abstract public unemployment insurance is analyzed as the majority voting equilibrium policy of a dynamic stochastic economy abstracting from incentive effects we focus on redistribution some results are because of the distribution of heterogeneous employment opportunities public insurance may be democratically chosen even if complete private markets exist and because of the dynamics even when agents are intrinsically homogeneous the equilibrium benefit level or duration benefit schedule deviates from what has been described as optimal in the literature the effects of differences in the average frequency or duration of unemployment on equilibrium taxes and benefits are investigated with some unanticipated results

stabilising economic growth through risk sharing macro instruments the risk sharing principles of islamic finance have ironically been studied and used extensively outside the muslim world the development of early european city states was founded on the risk sharing principle the risk sharing financing helped these city states to develop their infrastructure and rule the scientific and economic landscape of the west the western financial system of today still carries traces of risk sharing in the form of venture capital financing albeit the primary focus has diverted to risk shifting based debt financing over the past decades much effort and research has gone into establishing a viable set of islamic financial institutions most muslim nations are heavily indebted with high reliance on multilateral financing primarily based on high interest rates this vicious cycle of interest rates and debt has stunted the growth of these nations and worsened the conditions of the masses this research brings to the forefront the concept of an equity in nature gdp linked paper which allows for enhanced risk sharing based sovereign financing it aims to present empirical proof of the stability this instrument offers in economic growth for a large sample of developing economies comprising bulk of islamic countries while analysing the empirical work a strong favourable argument for this instrument is derived for its benefits in stability through this study we endeavour to initiate a thought provoking and practical discussion for further development of these instruments for the betterment of developing countries

the economic effects of energy price shocks large fluctuations in energy prices have been a distinguishing characteristic of the u s economy since the 1970s turmoil in the middle east rising energy prices in the u s and evidence of global warming recently have reignited interest in the link between energy prices and economic performance this paper addresses a number of the key issues in this debate what are energy price shocks and where do they come from how responsive is energy demand to changes in energy prices how do consumers expenditure patterns evolve in response to energy price shocks how do energy price shocks affect u s real output inflation and stock prices why do energy price increases seem to cause recessions but energy price decreases do not seem to cause expansions why has there been a surge in the price of oil in recent years why has this new energy price shock not caused a recession so far have the effects of energy price shocks waned since the 1980s and if so why as the paper demonstrates it is critical to account for the endogeneity of energy prices and to differentiate between the effects of demand and supply shocks in energy markets when answering these questions

does a federal country need federal transfers when it has labour mobility sequeira t n and lopes a f does a federal country need federal transfers when it has labour mobility regional studies this work empirically tests optimum currency area theory for members of a given monetary union the united states the united states is recognized as a country where labour mobility between states is high this paper jointly assesses the consequences of having federal transfers and labour mobility in terms of the states cyclical output it is concluded that federal transfers undoubtedly contribute to increase cyclical output however out migration may increase or decrease cyclical output depending on certain conditions as federal transfers proved to be much more important than migration the answer to the question in the paper s title is yes sequeira t n et lopes a f un pays federal a t il besoin des transferts federaux quand il est deja dote de la mobilite du travail regional studies cet article cherche a tester empiriquement la theorie des zones monetaires optimale

emu and the regional impact of monetary policy rodriguez fuentes c j and dow s c 2003 emu and the regional impact of monetary policy reg studies 37 969 980 in this paper we focus on a topic which has been attracting renewed interest because of monetary unification in europe the regional dimension of national monetary policies most of the debate over the regional implications of the euro has been developed within the optimum currency area framework according to this theory european monetary policy would have regional effects when the countries of the euro zone had such structural differences as to produce asymmetric shocks these asymmetrical effects could only be offset by labour mobility and wage price flexibility however we argue here that in addition european monetary policy may have more general regional effects including in particular by producing a higher instability in the pattern of credit availability for some peripheral regions this latter possibility and the forces underlying it are explored here both at the theoreti

trade capital mobility and tax competition this paper examines a system of governments national state or local that finance public expenditures with taxes on mobile capital e g a property tax unlike previous research on tax competition explicit consideration is given to the general equilibrium determination of the prices at which goods are traded between regions the analysis identifies inefficiencies in government behavior that are not apparent in models in which the terms of trade are exogenously given capital taxation is shown to create an inefficient distribution of public good outputs across regions accompanied by an inefficient pattern of trade a model is presented in which the chosen levels of public good outputs differ across regions containing identical residents and production possibilities there is a wasteful diversity of public good supplies

fiscal devolution and dependency public spending devolution in practice is widely seen as more appropriate for addressing varied political aspirations within state boundaries than is tax devolution a drawback is that devolved public spending may be subject to irresistible upward pressure as illustrated by formula drift of the united kingdom devolved administrations by crowding out the private sector such public spending can exacerbate the problem it was originally intended to alleviate when taxpayers do not value increases in government output at least as highly as the private goods and services they must forgo to finance them then the public sector is too large this article estimates a three sector hecksher ohlin model of the economy with the greatest relative rise of the public spending ratio in the united kingdom wales simulation of the model shows a net gain in employment from a 1 cut in income tax matched by a corresponding reduction in government spending this result is consistent with the current level of intergovernme

does the ecb act as a lender of last resort during the subprime lending crisis evidence from monetary policy reaction models abstract we investigate whether the ecb aligns its monetary policy with financial crisis risk in emu member countries we find that since the outbreak of the subprime crisis the ecb has significantly increased net lending and reduced interest rates when banking and sovereign debt crisis risk in vulnerable emu countries greece ireland italy portugal and spain increases while no significant effect is identified for the pre crisis period and relatively tranquil emu countries austria belgium france germany and the netherlands these findings suggest that the ecb acts as a lender of last resort for vulnerable emu countries

status effects and negative utility growth this paper explains the observed stagnation of happiness measures through a growth model in which agents care about conspicuous consumption normal goods confer direct utility while status goods confer utility only at the expense of others firms can improve the quality of both goods through r d the nash equilibrium of the consumer game results in the share of expenditure on status goods increasing with the number of times the status good has been improved as the economy grows resources for innovation are transferred entirely to status good r d the resulting long run rate of utility growth is negative

unipolarity status competition and great power war most scholars hold that the consequences of unipolarity for great power conflict are indeterminate and that a power shift resulting in a return to bipolarity or multipolarity will not raise the specter of great power war this article calls into question the core assumptions underlying the consensus 1 that people are mainly motivated by the instrumental pursuit of tangible ends such as physical security and material prosperity and 2 that major powers satisfaction with the status quo is relatively independent of the distribution of capabilities in fact it is known that people are motivated powerfully by a noninstrumental concern for relative status and there is strong empirical evidence linking the salience of those concerns to distributions of resources if the status of states depends in some measure on their relative capabilities and if states derive utility from status then different distributions of capabilities may affect levels of satisfaction just as different income distributions may affect levels of status competition in domestic settings building on research in psychology and sociology the author argues that even capabilities distributions among major powers foster ambiguous status hierarchies which generate more dissatisfaction and clashes over the status quo and the more stratified the distribution of capabilities the less likely such status competition is unipolarity thus augurs for great power peace and a shift back to bipolarity or multipolarity raises the probability of war even among great powers with little material cause to fight

regional redistribution and stabilization by the center in canada france the uk and the us abstract this paper re examines earlier estimates of regional redistribution and stabilization through the central government budget in the us and produces new estimates of this redistribution and stabilization in the us canada france and the uk the new estimates rest on panel data econometrics and an adherence to certain accounting principles that have occasionally been violated in the past as a result of the accounting the peak estimates for the us and canada in the earlier literature are never attained regional stabilization of personal income through the central government budget emerges as close to 20 in the us france and the uk but only 10 to 14 in canada in case of gross product instead of personal income accounting regional stabilization is closer to 10 in the us as regards france and the uk the use of panel data econometrics proves essential

federal fiscal transfer rules in monetary unions abstract this paper considers simple rules for federal fiscal transfers that automatically redistribute funds among member states of a monetary union to counteract adverse idiosyncratic shocks the transfer rules target regional differences in nominal gdp consumption spending labor income and fiscal deficits targeting regional fiscal deficits is the only rule that reduces consumption fluctuations and that promotes interregional consumption risk sharing but the overall welfare effect is negative in contrast targeting regional differences in labor income yields the largest welfare gains but it also yields the largest fluctuations in consumption and real gdp it is demonstrated that the welfare gains primarily stem from reducing the allocative inefficiency of input factors caused by nominal rigidities the optimal transfer rule essentially implies a combination of consumption spending and labor income targeting and it primarily targets the allocative inefficiency of factor inputs at the cost of lower interregional consumption risk sharing

regional insurance and migration a dynamic model of migration is developed to study whether labor mobility can hedge people against region specific shocks making private or public insurance redundant the model adopts a novel timing for migration which is argued to be the time frame suitable for analyzing risk sharing issues it also innovates on the existing literature by solving individual migration through convexification of the set of actions the results show that the role of migration as an insurance mechanism is small labor mobility cannot fully remove income differentials between regions it is also shown that a fiscal stabilization scheme is in general optimal moreover any pure risk sharing mechanism has no influence on migration flows