time variation in the inflation passthrough of energy prices from bayesian estimates of a vector autoregression var which allows for both coefficient drift and stochastic volatility we obtain the following three results first beginning in approximately 1975 the responsiveness of core inflation to changes in energy prices in the united states fell rapidly and remains muted second this decline in the passthrough of energy inflation to core prices has been sustained through a recent period of markedly higher volatility of shocks to energy inflation finally reduced energy inflation passthrough has persisted in the face of monetary policy which quickly became less responsive to energy inflation starting around 1985

reward structures in a planned economy some difficulties there is an extensive literature on the socially optimal pricing policy for public firms but much less attention has been paid to the vital question of how managers of public firms can be induced to follow such policies the politicians or planners who seek to control a public enterprise will be less well informed about cost and demand functions than the manager and there is no reason to suppose that managers are altruists thus with asymmetrical information and selfish managers there is a significant control problem recently tam 1981 has suggested an ingenious iterative incentive mechanism designed to surmount this problem this note a argues that her negative price incentive scheme npis will not achieve its objective of guiding managers to price at marginal cost2 and b compares npis with variants of the performance index pi proposed by scott 1952 1978 and finsinger and vogelsang 1980a 1981 tam s proposal is that the manager of a public firm be paid a bonus b each period

the impact of legislation on divorce a hazard function approach the paper examines the impact of the introduction of no fault divorce legislation in australia the approach used is rather novel a hazard model of the divorce rate is estimated with the role of legislation captured via a time varying covariate the paper concludes that contrary to us empirical evidence no fault divorce legislation appears to have had a positive impact upon the divorce rate in australia

macroeconomic factors and microlevel bank behavior we analyze the link between banks and the macroeconomy using a model that extends a macroeconomic var for the u s with a set of factors summarizing conditions in about 1 500 commercial banks we investigate how macroeconomic shocks are transmitted to individual banks and obtain the following main findings backward looking risk of a representative bank declines and bank lending increases following expansionary shocks forward looking risk increases following an expansionary monetary policy shock there is however substantial heterogeneity in the transmission of macroeconomic shocks which is due to bank size capitalization liquidity risk and the exposure to real estate and consumer loans

inflation dynamics during the financial crisis using confidential product level price data underlying the u s producer price index ppi this paper analyzes the effect of changes in firms financial conditions on their price setting behavior during the great recession that surrounds the financial crisis the evidence indicates that during the height of the crisis in late 2008 firms with weak balance sheets increased prices significantly relative to industry averages whereas firms with strong balance sheets lowered prices a response consistent with an adverse demand shock these stark differences in price setting behavior are consistent with the notion that financial frictions may significantly influence the response of aggregate inflation to macroeconomic shocks we explore the implications of these empirical findings within a general equilibrium framework that allows for customer markets and departures from the frictionless financial markets in the model firms have an incentive to set a low price to invest in market share though when financial distortions are severe firms forgo these investment opportunities and maintain high prices in an effort to preserve their balance sheet capacity consistent with our empirical findings the model with financial distortions relative to the baseline model without such distortions implies a substantial attenuation of price dynamics in response to contractionary demand shocks

regulation by price adjustment the regulatory price adjustment process originally proposed by vogelsang and finsinger has been shown to be vulnerable to strategic manipulation by the regulated firm this article proposes several modifications to that scheme which improve its performance and broaden its applicability inclusion of a monopoly franchise market and the firm s past prices and earnings in the price adjustment constraints are shown to ensure efficient production by the firm and convergence to ramsey prices regardless of the firm s cost structure

the regulation of multiproduct firms part i theory abstract this paper develops a normative model of the regulation of a multiproduct firm with private information about its technology and cost reducing activity it first characterizes the optimal regulatory scheme and illustrates it through examples it then derives necessary and sufficient conditions for the pricing incentive dichotomy to hold i e conditions under which the cost reimbursement rule but not pricing is used to provide incentives last the paper studies the regulation of the multiproduct firm in a general equilibrium framework both to assess the validity of the partial equilibrium approach and to formalize the notion of taxation by regulation

credit and economic activity credit regimes and nonlinear propagation of shocks in this paper we examine empirically whether credit plays a role as a nonlinear propagator of shocks this propagation takes the form of a threshold vector autoregression in which a regime change occurs if credit conditions cross a critical threshold using nonlinear impulseresponse functions we evaluate the dynamics implied by the threshold model these suggest that shocks have a larger effect on output in the tight credit regime than is normally the case and that contractionary monetary shocks typically have a larger effect than expansionary shocks finally using a nonlinear version of historical decompositions we attempt to determine the relative contribution to output growth of shocks and the nonlinear structure

macroeconomic forecasting performance under alternative specifications of time varying volatility summary this paper compares alternative models of time varying volatility on the basis of the accuracy of real time point and density forecasts of key macroeconomic time series for the usa we consider bayesian autoregressive and vector autoregressive models that incorporate some form of time varying volatility precisely random walk stochastic volatility stochastic volatility following a stationary ar process stochastic volatility coupled with fat tails garch and mixture of innovation models the results show that the ar and var specifications with conventional stochastic volatility dominate other volatility specifications in terms of point forecasting to some degree and density forecasting to a greater degree copyright 2014 john wiley sons ltd

house prices borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle i develop a general equilibrium model with sticky prices credit constraints nominal loans and asset prices changes in asset prices modify agents borrowing capacity through collateral value changes in nominal prices affect real repayments through debt deflation monetary policy shocks move asset and nominal prices in the same direction and are amplified and propagated over time the financial accelerator is not constant across shocks nominal debt stabilises supply shocks making the economy less volatile when the central bank controls the interest rate i discuss the role of equity debt indexation and household and firm leverage in the propagation mechanism finally i find that monetary policy should not target asset prices as a means of reducing output and inflation volatility

reward structures in a planned economy the problem of incentives and efficient allocation of resources this paper considers a reward mechanism for inducing the choice of a socially optimal level of output by a socialist price setting manager under this mechanism the planner is assumed to have no information other than the observed output and price level it thus has informational advantages over other schemes thus far discussed in the literature the other schemes require the additional knowledge of demand elasticities of all the products produced in the economy besides this informational advantage the reward structure suggested here also eliminates other basic weaknesses of those schemes suggested previously

retrospectives lange and von mises large scale enterprises and the economic case for socialism in the debates over economic calculation launched by ludwig von mises in 1920 and extending well into the 1940s the central issue concerned the ability of a socialist economy to achieve allocative efficiency von mises emphasized that a collectivist state would have great difficulty in gathering and acting on relevant information therefore under socialism even well intentioned bureaucrats would lack a meaningful system of values on which to calculate defenders of socialism such as oskar lange countered that a market socialism could match demand to supply just as well as capitalism and meet the range of static conditions required for pareto optimality that debate is a rich and interesting story that has been told many times before but in all that has been written an important aspect of the original debate has been lost somewhat oddly both the socialists like oskar lange and the advocates of private ownership like von mises and friedrich hayek maintained that they were defending the progressive tendencies of competitive capitalism against the deadening hand of monopoly power this historic paradox deserves consideration if only because it serves to focus attention on our still incomplete theories of large scale enterprises under socialism and capitalism

the regulation of multiproduct firms part ii applications to competitive environments and policy analysis abstract this paper extends our companion paper part i laffont and tirole 1990 on the regulation of the rate of return and prices of a multiproduct firm in two directions first it studies optimal pricing by a regulated firm competing with regulated or unregulated rivals with or without market power or other distorted pricing it then focuses on the access pricing problem and its potential foreclosure effects second it shows how optimal pricing can be decentralized to the regulated firm in the absence of cost and demand information

the time varying volatility of macroeconomic fluctuations we investigate the sources of the important shifts in the volatility of us mac roeconomic variables in the postwar period to this end we propose the esti mation of dsge models allowing for time variation in the volatility of the structural innovations we apply our estimation strategy to a large scale model of the business cycle and find that shocks specific to the equilibrium condition of investment account for most of the sharp decline in volatility of the last two decades jel c51 e32

effort rewarding incentive mechanisms for public enterprise managers abstract management incentive schemes leading to welfare optimal pricing and efficient production of public enterprises have so far been mainly concerned with the information advantages that public enterprise managers hold over their supervising government or central planning agency managers under these schemes are induced to improve their firm s performance in adjustment processes which in the limit lead to optimal firm decisions such managers are supposed to be income maximizers disregarding any personal effort which could influence their performance and utility in this paper i show that two incentive schemes recently proposed by tam 1981 and finsinger and vogelsang 1982 can also help to induce managers to provide an optimal level of effort here effort is assumed to reduce managers utility and the firm s costs the result depends crucially on myopic managerial utility maximization once managers maximize the discounted value of future utility levels they will deviate from the optimal behavior under tam s scheme this can hold independent of the optimal effort level under the finsinger vogelsang performance index managers will always show suboptimal effort levels in a steady state equilibrium because the index only rewards welfare improvements effort however has to be rewarded even with no improvement in behavior an improved performance index which provides cumulative rewards is shown to be strategy proof and lead to a welfare optimum this reward structure basically treats managers as if they were private entrepreneurs it looks extremely generous in that it gives managers the fruits of all costs reductions due to increases in effort suggestions are made to mitigate this income distributional impact

a mechanism to induce ramsey pricing for natural monopoly firms this paper considers a model with m independent natural monopoly firms it then proposes a taxation subsidy scheme that the regulator can implement to induce the m price setting firms acting independently to jointly adopt ramsey pricing the scheme has the following desirable features 1 the regulator needs only book keeping data on quantities prices and profits 2 the scheme induces cost minimization behaviour 3 the firms will not behave strategically 4 at each step of the convergence process to optimum each firm earns a non negative return and welfare is improved

loan supply shocks during the financial crisis evidence for the euro area this paper employs a panel vector autoregressive model for the member countries of the euro area to explore the role of banks during the slump of the real economy that followed the financial crisis in particular we seek to quantify the macroeconomic effects of adverse loan supply shocks which are identified using sign restrictions we find that loan supply shocks significantly contributed to the evolution of the loan volume and real gdp growth in all member countries during the financial crisis however concerning both the timing and the magnitude of the shocks our results also indicate that the euro area was characterized by a considerable degree of cross country heterogeneity

the external finance premium and the macroeconomy us post wwii evidence abstract the central variable of theories of financial frictions the external finance premium is unobservable this paper distils the external finance premium from a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model estimated on us macroeconomic data covering the period 1954 to 2004 within the dsge framework movements in the premium can be given an interpretation in terms of shocks driving business cycles a key result is that the estimate based solely on non financial macroeconomic data picks up over 70 of the dynamics of lower grade corporate bond spreads the paper also identifies a gain in fitting key macroeconomic aggregates by including financial frictions in the model and documents how shock transmission is affected

time variation in macro financial linkages summary we analyze the contribution of credit spread house and stock price shocks to the us economy based on a time varying parameter vector autoregressive model we find that the contribution of financial shocks to gross domestic product growth fluctuates from about 20 in normal times to more than 50 during the great recession the great recession and the subsequent weak recovery can largely be traced back to negative housing shocks housing shocks have become more important for the real economy since the early 2000s and negative housing shocks are more important than positive ones unexpected increases in credit spreads have not been deflationary recently copyright 2016 john wiley sons ltd