do r d tax credits work evidence from a panel of countries 1979 1997 this paper examines the impact of fiscal incentives on the level of r d investment an econometric model of r d investment is estimated using a new panel of data on tax changes and r d spending in nine oecd countries over a 19 year period 1979 1997 we find evidence that tax incentives are effective in increasing r d intensity this is true even after allowing for permanent country specific characteristics world macro shocks and other policy influences we estimate that a 10 fall in the cost of r d stimulates just over a 1 rise in the level of r d in the short run and just under a 10 rise in r d in the long run

political instability and savings in less developed countries evidence from sub saharan africa a four equation model is used to investigate the effects of political instability pi on the savings rate in sub saharan africa utilising a comprehensive measure of pi we find that political instability has a deleterious effect on the savings rate both directly and indirectly through a reduction in investment and economic growth the negative effects of pi on savings rate occurs contemporaneously as well as with a lag we also find that economic growth has a stabilising effect on the political system and that not accounting for these effects through a simultaneous equations model results in biased coefficient estimates these relationships are robust with respect to model specification the implication of our results is that economic factors alone cannot explain the development process in less developed countries

inventories rational expectations and the business cycle abstract the simplest macroeconomic models in which markets clear instantaneously and expectations are rational preclude the existence of business cycles that is of serially correlated deviations of output from trend this paper studies one of several mechanisms that can be used to make these so called new classical models produce business cycles the mechanism is the gradual adjustment of inventory stocks two macroeconomic models of inventory holdings are formulated both imply first that current output should be a decreasing function of the stock of inventories and second that inventories once perturbed from equilibrium levels should adjust only gradually these two features are then embedded into an otherwise standard macroeconomic model in which markets clear instantaneously and expectations are rational two principal conclusions are reached first disturbances such as unanticipated changes in money will set in motion serially correlated deviations of output from trend second if desired inventories are sensitive to the real interest rate then even fully anticipated changes in money can affect real variables

the variable rate of growth effect in the life cycle saving model the rate of growth in real gnp g affects the aggregate saving rate positively in life cycle saving models this rate of growth effect is invariably estimated as the coefficient of g in the saving function we show that other determinants of the saving rate influence the rate of growth effect in other words the rate of growth effect is not constant specifically the real rate of return on financial assets and the population dependency ratio determine the timing of saving over the life cycle and hence alter the rate of growth effect the dependency ratio also has an effect on the saving rate which is independent of g because it together with the foreign saving rate determines the level of saving over the life cycle

terms of trade dynamics in asia an analysis of national saving and domestic investment responses to terms of trade changes in 14 asian ldcs abstract i estimate a three equation model of savings investment and growth on pooled time series data for 14 asian developing countries to explore terms of trade dynamic effects on the current account a terms of trade deterioration lowers aggregate saving and raises investment in the current year it also exerts a positive lagged effect on investment due to the unanticipated temporary nature of the terms of trade change the current account oscillates before returning gradually to its steady state level the model explains 65 per cent of the variance in the sample countries current accounts over the period 1962 1983

the interest elasticity of savings in developing countries the existing evidence abstract this paper presents a critical analysis of some of the most recent empirical work on the interest elasticity of savings in developing economies supported by a set of empirical results the paper argues that a the real interest elasticity of savings is not easily detected using the existing empirical models which generally yield insignificant interest rate parameters in the seventies b the existing models suffer from serious defects that make if very difficult to interpret the estimated parameters

determinants of private savings behaviour in turkey this study investigates the effects on private saving rates of a number of policy and non policy variables the analysis covers the period 1968 1994 the empirical private saving model for turkey is estimated the findings support the hypothesis that private saving rates have strong inertia the evidence indicates that government saving does not tend to crowd out private savings and the ricardian equivalence does not hold strictly income level has a positive impact on private saving rate and growth rate of income is not statistically significant from a policy point of view financial depth and development measures in turkey suggest that countries with deeper financial systems tend to have higher private saving rates private credit and real interest rates try to capture the severity of the borrowing constraints and the degree of financial repression for turkey moreover the negative impact of life expectancy rate lends support to the life cycle hypothesis the precautionary motive for saving is suppor

aggregate spending and the terms of trade is there a laursen metzler effect this paper investigates the spending and current account effects of terms of trade shifts in a model where households maximize utility over an infinite planning period in the framework developed here an economy specialized in production must experience a fall in aggregate spending and a current surplus as a result of an unanticipated permanent worsening in its terms of trade the paper s model thus provides a setting in which the current account deficit predicted by laursen and metzier harberger and others fails to materialize

r d and internal finance a panel study of small firms in high tech industries since joseph schumpeter economists have argued that internal finance should be an important determinant of r d expenditures yet almost without exception previous empirical studies have not found evidence of such a relation using newly available data the authors investigate this puzzle with a panel of 179 small firms in high tech industries under each estimation strategy they employ the authors find an economically large and statistically significant relationship between r d investment and internal finance their results are consistent with the view that because of capital market imperfections the flow of internal finance is the principal determinant of the rate at which small high tech firms acquire technology through r d copyright 1994 by mit press

the terms of trade and the current account the harberger laursen metzler effect the paper examines the effect of terms of trade changes on a small country s spending and current account assuming optimizing behavior in an intertemporal framework with perfect international capital mobility a temporary future terms of trade deterioration implies a deterioration improvement of the trade balance whereas a permanent terms of trade deterioration has an ambiguous effect depending on the rate of time preference nominal and real variables are considered via exact price indexes two periods and an infinite horizon are examined

current account dynamics and the terms of trade harberger laursen metzler two generations later this is a study of the current account dynamics resulting from the savings and investment dynamics in a small open economy which is subject to exogenous changes in its terms of trade and in world interest rates anticipated and unanticipated as well as temporary and permanent terms of trade changes have very different effects there is however a general tendency towards cycles in both savings and investment which gives rise to cycles in the current account it is shown that the classic harberger laursen metzler effect on saving of a terms of trade deterioration can have any sign for plausible parameter values both for temporary and permanent disturbances

financial development theories and recent experience for many years practising development econo mists made pronouncements on the importance of developing the financial sector to accelerate eco nomic growth based on slender theoretical grounds indeed the vast bulk of theoretical work relating financial conditions to economic development published before 1973 detected possibilities for negative or at best neutral effects of financial development on income levels john maynard keynes 1936 argues that liquidity preference tended historically to push the real interest rate above its full employment equilibrium level as a result income falls to equate saving and investment plans keynes suggests that liquidity preference and hence the real interest rate can be reduced by financial repression in the form of interest rate ceilings or a gesellian stamp tax on money james tobin 1965 shows that a larger ratio of money to physical capital in household portfolios reduces the capital labour ratio and hence per capita incomes even when the economy is operating at full employment by reducing preference for money in favour of physical capital financial repression can raise the capital labour ratio and accelerate economic growth during the transition to a new higher level of per c pi a incomes in tobin s model economic growth and inflation are positively related because higher inflation reduces the demand for money more recently a school of neo structuralist economists proffers models in which liberalization and devel opment of the formal financial system can produce both higher inflation and lower economic growth

life cycles oil cycles or financial reforms the growth in private savings rates in indonesia what goes steady with private savings this paper investigates reasons for the sustained growth in private savings in indonesia since 1970 in a period characterized by economic growth demographic

domestic saving and international capital movements in the long run and the short run the evidence and analysis in this paper support the earlier findings of feldstein and horioka 1980 that sustained increases in domestic savings rates induce approximately equal increases in domestic rates of investment new estimates for the post opec period 1974 79 imply that each extra dollar of domestic saving increases domestic investment by approximately 85 cents in a sample of 17 oecd countries an explicit analysis of the problems of identification and simultaneous equations bias suggests that the regression estimates are more relevant as a guide to the long run response of international capital flows than to their short run behavior coefficient estimates based on annual variations in savings and investment are subject to potentially severe simultaneous equations bias that is not present when annual observations are averaged over a decade or more and the regression is estimated with a cross country sample of these averages a portfolio model of international capital allocation that is presented in the paper indicates that the short run change in the rate of net foreign investment in response to a sustained increase in domestic saving is likely to be substantially greater than the ultimate steady state response this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the elasticity of scale and the shape of average costs different concepts of returns to scale the first which is most widely used for defining returns to scale is the relative increase in output as all input quantities are increased proportionally along a ray through the origin the second which is the more relevant concept for micro economic analysis is the increase in output relative to costs for variations along the expansion path where input prices are constant and costs are minimized at every output 2 as it turns out these two concepts yield equal measures for the elasticity of scale3 e at every minimum cost point in the input space however the change in e with output is generally different for the two concepts 4 since expansion paths do not coincide with rays unless the production function is homothetic 5 but it is the change of e along the expansion path and not along the raywhich determines the shape of the average cost curve ac and which is therefore relevant for the analysis of firms and industry behavior under competition 6 these relations are stated and analyzed below it is shown that assumptions made in the literature7 which are related to the behavior of e along rays or to the slope of the technically optimal surface where returns to scale are locally constant are irrelevantbeing neither necessary nor sufficient for implying classical u shaped average cost curves the following definitions and results are used here

national income terms of trade and economic welfare during the two oil crises many non petroleum producing countries experienced substantial declines in their terms of trade during the second wave of oil price increases in i979 and i980 curiously enough the gnp deflators in many countries did not rise as much as producers price indices or consumers price indices in japan for example during the first quarter of i980 when the effect of the second oil crisis was in full force nominal gnp increased by only i 2 at an annual rate in comparison with the previous quarter while real gnp based at constant i970 prices increased by i 8 during this period both the producers price index and the consumers price index rose quite rapidly while the gnp deflator with i970 as the base year declined under current practices of national income accounting including the new sna method 2 the gnp deflator is a paasche index with positive weights for such items as consumption investment government expenditure and exports and with a negative weight for imports in other words real product under the new sna is obtained by separately deflating gross output and purchased inputs double deflation method therefore a high rate of increase in import prices ceteris paribus will reduce rather than increase the gnp deflator this phenomenon raises a suspicion that real gnp may not be a good indicator of national welfare in an open economy experiencing a substantial change in its terms of trade indeed in the national income literature there are many attempts to adjust for the effects of a deterioration in the terms of trade on real income also there are attempts to use the deflator for domestic expenditure in order to obtain an adequate index of national welfare however most of these studies are based on intuitive arguments about the welfare loss or gain and many are concerned primarily with consistency in the national accounting framework they seem to pay relatively little attention to the welfare implications of real gnp or national income in an open economy the main purpose of this paper is to explore on the basis of consumption possibilities or revealed preference the

capital mobility and the relationship between saving and investment rates in oecd countries abstract this paper considers tests that use data on saving and investment rates to determine the degree of international capital mobility two types of evidence are presented to show that a high correlation between saving and investment rates across oecd countries can be consistent with a high degree of capital mobility this evidence qualifies the conclusions of previous studies and casts doubt on the usefulness of testing hypotheses about capital mobility with data on saving and investment rates

modeling location and production an application to u s fully integrated steel plants i n weber s 1929 theory of the location of industry spatial firms produce under conditions of fixed proportions and constant returns to scale while their spatial consumers have priceinelastic demands weber s assumptions are relaxed separately in previous work moses 1958 and alonso 1967 allow either for flexible technologies but inelastic demands or for pricesensitive demands but fixed proportions technologies this paper presents a behavioral and econometric model of spatial firms which simultaneously relaxes restrictive assumptions on both technology and demand assumptions of earlier models become testable hypotheses the behavioral model is general to any spatial firm the econometric model can be estimated for any industry the paper reports an estimation of the model for a sample of fully integrated steel plants in the united states the steel industry is appropriate for illustrating the general model for two reasons first the important inputs in steel are localized weight losing materials while transportation charges are a nontrivial part of the delivered prices of both these inputs and of steel products second previous research lacks agreement about the principal determinants of steel plant locations disagreement also exists over the structure of production and the extent of scale economies in production and the existence of substitution possibilities among inputs each of these disagreements is treated as a hypothesis within this paper first a model which includes the influences of both consumers and materials on location can distinguish the comparative influence of each the literature lacks agreement on whether the steel industry is transport oriented in which case consumer demands are price inelastic and an optimal location minimizes transport costs or market oriented in which case consumer demands are price elastic and an optimal location reflects that sensitivity isard 1948 suggests the influences on location change over time due to changes in technology and relative prices isard and capron 1949 conclude the steel industry is transport oriented more recently hekman 1978 reports that the demand for steel is priceelastic he concludes that locations in the steel industry are sensitive to consumer demands the evidence in this paper portrays the steel industry as transport oriented second there are differing estimates of the extent of scale economies in steel production ranging from constant returns to scale hekman 1978 to a minimum efficient scale m e s of twelve million tons cockerill 1974 scherer 1973 and weiss 1976 estimate m e s of four million tons while tarr 1977 gives the mid1970s m e s at six million tons an estimate reported in this paper as well third the existence of substitution possibilities among inputs has implications for both location and production if substitution possibilities are limited weber models of location may be applied to the steel industry previous research has characterized steelnmaking technology as fixed proportions tsao and day 1971 cobb douglas hekman 1978 or having wide variation in substitution possibilities kopp and smith 1980 moroney and trapani 1981 this paper presents estimated elasticities of substitution suggestive of great substitution possibilities among inputs the behavioral model of location and production is presented and then transformed into an econometric model in section ii a brief discussion of regional markets for steel products and a description of the data appears in section iii received for publication july 31 1981 revision accepted for publication july 7 1982 wayne state university this research is based on my ph d dissertation at the university of wisconsin madison the advice of frank m gollop eugene smolensky and charles a wilson is gratefully acknowledged i have benefited from discussions with james hamilton and li way lee and comments by jan brueckner and several anonymous referees computing support has been provided by the graduate schools at the university of wisconsin madison and wayne state university the responsibility for any remaining errors is mine an earlier version of this paper was presented at the 1980 north american meetings of the econometric society

money credit constraints and economic activity when government expenditures exceed current tax revenues the resulting deficit must be financed either by issuing bonds which imply obligations to levy future taxes or by creating high powered money the choice between money and bonds is often thought to be of great moment for both real and nominal variables that is monetary policy matters there is by now a wide empirical consensus that monetary policy has effects on real variables like output and employment but there is far less agreement about why this is so the purpose of this paper is to take issue with some currently fashionable views of why money has real effects and to suggest a new theory or rather resurrect an old one the loanable funds theory and give it new improved microfoundations this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

when bureaucrats meet entrepreneurs the design of effective public venture capital programmes recently public efforts to finance small high technology firms have proliferated we review the motivations for these efforts and make some preliminary observations about their design we explore the underlying challenges that the financing of young growth firms poses the ways that specialised financial intermediaries address them and the rationales for public efforts to finance these companies the final section makes a set of observations about the ways in which the structure of these efforts can most effectively complement private sector activity a frequent fault in programme design is the presumption that technological criteria can be divorced from business considerations when evaluating firms the federal government has played an active role in financing new firms particularly in high technology industries since the soviet union s launch of the sputnik satellite in recent years european and asian nations and many us states have adopted similar initiatives while these programmes precise structures have differed the efforts have been predicated on two shared assumptions i that the private sector provides insufficient capital to new firms and ii that the government either can identify investments which will ultimately yield high social and or private returns or can encourage financial intermediaries to do so in contrast to other government interventions designed to boost economic growth such as privatisation programmes these claims have received little scrutiny by economists the neglect of these questions is unfortunate while the sums of money involved are modest relative to public expenditures on defence procurement or retiree benefits these programmes are very substantial when compared to contemporaneous private investments in new firms government programmes in this arena have been divided between those efforts that directly fund entrepreneurial firms and those that encourage or subsidise the development of outside investors in this paper i will focus on public venture capital initiatives programmes that make equity or equity like investments in young firms or encourage other intermediaries to make such investments in some such programmes such as the advanced technology program and the small business innovation research programmes discussed below the funds are provided as a contract or outright grant while these efforts have proliferated a consensus as to how to structure these programmes remains elusive while the design of regulatory agencies has been extensively studied from a theoretical and empirical perspective little work has

foreign debt instability an analysis of national saving and domestic investment responses to foreign debt accumulation in 28 developing countries abstract i specify and estimate a foreign debt model that exploits the balance of payments identity current account national saving domestic investment foreign debt can affect both saving and investment behavior in this model if an increase in foreigndebt reduces investment by more than it reduces saving or raises investment by less than it raises saving the current account will eventually be brought into a steady state equilibrium with a sustainable ratio of foreign debt to gnp in such case the debt crisis is more illusory than real for the country sample analyzed here however the buildup of government and government guaranteed foreign debt appears to have produced perverse private sector responses an increase in this type of foreign debt reduces saving by more than it reduces investment hence the current account deficit worsens over time as such foreign debt accumulates dynamic simulations identify only government policy that it raises national saving as an effective way of improving the current account the consequent real depreciation in the exchange rate may increase exporrts and reduce imports sufficiently to cause a current account surplus surprisingly export promotion policies alone seem unlikely to produce any substantial improvement in the current account

do tax credits stimulate r d spending the effect of the r d tax credit in its first decade abstract this paper examines the impact of the u s federal r d tax credit between 1981 1991 using confidential irs data from corporate tax returns the empirical analysis makes two key advances on previous work first it implements a new instrumental variables iv strategy based on tax changes that directly addresses the simultaneity of r d spending and marginal credit rates second the analysis makes use of new restricted access irs corporate return data describing r d expenditures estimates imply that a10 reduction in the user cost of r d leads the average firm to increase its research intensity the ratio of r d spending to sales by 19 8 in the short run long run estimates imply that the average firm faces adjustment costs and increases spending over time though small and young firms show evidence of reversing initial increases analysis of the components of qualified research shows that wages and supplies account for the bulk of the increase in research spending elasticities of qualified and total research intensities from a smaller sample suggest firms respond to user cost changes largely by increasing their qualified spending meaning that the type of r d the federal credit deems qualified research is an important margin on which the credit affects firm behavior

financing innovation evidence from rad grants abstract governments regularly subsidize new ventures to spur innovation this paper conducts the first large sample quasi experimental evaluation of r d subsidies i use data on ranked applicants

the effectiveness of r d tax credits in order to measure the effect of tax credits on private r d investment researchers confront the difficult problem of finding an exogenous measure of tax policy that exhibits sufficient variation

analysing disequilibrium interest rate systems in developing countries abstract under equilibrium conditions monetary policy measures to raise institutional interest rates are contractionary when interest rates are held below their free market equilibrium levels however an increase can be expansionary higher institutional interest rates may deter savings in the form of unproductive inflation hedges and encourage savings in the form of financial claims issued to finance productive investment in most developing countries money is the predominant financial repository of savings and bank loans are a major source of investible funds hence attention is focused here on models which analyse the effects of binding interest rate ceilings on financial intermediation empirical evidence reported in this paper is consistent with the view that binding institutional interest rate ceilings can have a substantial growth reducing impact

positive time preference the case for positive time preference is absolutely compelling unless there is an infinite time horizon with the expectation of unending technological advance combined with what we call drastically diminishing marginal utility this finding holds both in the positive and normative senses a corollary is that savings are interest elastic

foreign debt accumulation financial and fiscal effects and monetary policy reactions in developing countries abstract this paper analyzes the effects of the current account of government and government guaranteed foreign debt on the one hand and net foreign liabilities or the cumulated current account deficit on the other hand in a sample of 26 developing countries while the cumulated current account deficit generates stabilizing forces pissibly through financial and wealth effects large amounts of government and government guaranteed debt produce destabilizing effects by stimulating capital flight i also find that monetary policy reactions are stabilizing in the case of the cumulated current account deficit but desstabilizing in the case of a build up of government and government guaranteed foreign debt jel f32 f34

savings investment and international capital flows abstract the high correlation between national savings and domestic investment rateshas been interpreted as evidence that capital is not internationally mobile this paper surveys the theory and evidence on the relationship between savings and investment in a sample of 23 oecd countries a positive correlation between savings and investment rates is found in both the short and long runs however a wide variety of models generate such co movements in savings and investment in response to exogenous disturbances even under conditions of complete financial markets thus the savings investment correlation provides little evidence on the question of international capital mobility

vignettes on the world capital market this paper is motivated by a sense that we as a profession need to understand much better than we now do how the world capital market works we seem to be genuinely schizophrenic in the ways we build models many of them are closedeconomy models in which the rest of the world does not even appear yet others of them are models of the small open economy in which hardly any degree of freedom is left for economic policy to influence events lying behind the schizophrenia is i believe a genuine ignorance on our collective part of how the world capital market

beggar thy neighbor the in state out of state and aggregate effects of r d tax credits abstract the proliferation of r d tax incentives among u s states in recent decades raises two questions i are these tax incentives effective in increasing in state r d ii how much of any increase is due to r d being drawn away from other states this paper answers i yes and ii nearly all the paper estimates an augmented r d factor demand model using state panel data from 1981 to 2004 i estimate that the long run elasticity of in state r d with respect to the in state user cost is about 2 5 while its elasticity with respect to out of state user costs is about 2 5 suggesting a zero sum game among states

inventories and sticky prices more on the microfoundations of macroeconomics the role of inventories in making prices sticky is studied by analyzing a dynamic linear quadratic model of a monopoly firm facing stochastic demand but able to store its finished goods in inventory it is shown that in contrast to the usual presumption firms that exhibit the smallest output responses to demand fluctuations may also exhibit the smallest price fluctuations specifically firms which have very flexible inventory storage facilities or are subjected to very transitory demand shocks will rely on inventories as buffers and will change neither production nor price very much on the other hand firms which have very inflexible storage facilities or whose demand shocks are quite permanent will display large swings in both price and output the standard assumption about inventory carrying costs that has been used in the literature that they are linear is shown to imply that production is impervious to fluctuations in demand it is also established that prices may respond more strongly to positive demand shocks than to negative ones if it is impossible to hold negative inventories i e to have unfilled orders the model offers an explanation for stickiness in relative prices however under certain circumstances it may help explain the persistence of inflation this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

investment cash flow sensitivities are useful a comment on kaplan and zingales arecent paper in this journal by kaplan and zingales reexamines a subset of erms from work of fazzari hubbard and petersen and criticizes the usefulness of investment cash eow sensitivities for detecting enancing constraints we show that the kaplan and zingales theoretical model fails to capture the approach employed in the literature and thus does not provide an effective critique moreover we describe why their empirical classiecation system is eawed in identifying both whether erms are constrained and the relative degree of constraints across erm groups we conclude that their results do not support their conclusions about the usefulness of investment cash eow sensitivities in a recent paper in this journal kaplan and zingales 1997 hereinafter kz argue that investment cash eow sensitivities do not provide useful evidence about the presence of enancing constraints because kz use a subset of the same erms and the same regressions as fazzari hubbard and petersen 1988 hereinafter fhp and claim page 176 that fhp can legitimately be considered the parent of all papers in this literature it is appropriate that we respond based on a simple theoretical model kz reach the provocative conclusion page 211 that the investment cash eow sensitivity criterion as a measure of enancial constraints is not well grounded in theory in section i we show that the kz model does not capture the theoretical approach employed in fhp and many subsequent studies most of the kz paper attempts to show that empirical investment cash eow sensitivities do not increase monotonically with the degree of enancing constraints within the 49 low dividend erms from the fhp sample in section ii we explain why the kz classiecation of the degree of constraints is eawed in identifying both whether or not erms are constrained absolute constraints as well as the relative degree of constraints across erms as a result we argue in section iii that there is no expected ex ante pattern for the

interest rates r d investment and the distortionary effects of r d incentives abstract this paper conducts the first analysis of how interest rates are related to firms allocation of investment between r d and non r d activities and how r d incentives alter this relationship it theoretically predicts that if firms receive incentives mostly in the form of grants and subsidies that reduce their dependence on external finance their share of r d spending increases decreases during a credit tightening easing conversely if tax credits are the primary incentive firms decrease increase their share of r d spending during a credit tightening easing the paper demonstrates empirical support for these predictions by using firm level financial and sector level r d incentives data and a unique methodology that focuses on the within firm allocation of investment

stage dependent intellectual property rights inspired by the chinese experience we develop a schumpeterian growth model of distance to frontier in which economic growth in the developing country is driven by domestic innovation as well as imitation and transfer of foreign technologies through foreign direct investment we show that optimal intellectual property rights ipr protection is stage dependent at an early stage of development the country implements weak ipr protection to facilitate imitation at a later stage of development the country implements strong ipr protection to encourage domestic innovation therefore the growth maximizing and welfare maximizing levels of patent strength increase as the country evolves towards the world technology frontier and this dynamic pattern is consistent with the actual evolution of patent strength in china