the economics of a blend mandate for biofuels a biofuel blend mandate may increase or decrease consumer fuel prices with endogenous oil prices depending on relative supply elasticities biofuel tax credits always reduce fuel prices tax credits result in lower fuel prices than under a mandate for the same level of biofuel production if tax credits are implemented alongside mandates then tax credits subsidize fuel consumption instead of biofuels this contradicts energy policy goals by increasing oil dependency co 2 emissions and traffic congestion while providing little benefit to either corn or ethanol producers these social costs will be substantial with tax credits costing taxpayers 28 7 billion annually by 2022 copyright 2008 oxford university press

dynamic corn supply functions a model with explicit optimization both static and dynamic models have been used to estimate aggregate supply elasticities for annual crops the early studies relied on static singleequation models in a few variables assumed static price expectations e g kohls and paarlberg and produced very small estimates of own price supply elasticities e g 0 07 for corn nerlove 1956 1958a and nerlove and addison showed that agricultural supply models incorporating adaptive price expectations and or dynamic resource adjustment produced larger estimates of supply elasticities for corn and other agricultural commodities additionally they showed that supply elasticities obtained from static models need not be bounded by the short run and long run supply elasticities of

can japan make a comeback fter being the best performer in the oecd during the preceding 40 years japan has experienced economic stagnation since the beginning of the 1990s what has happened to the japanese economy can it make a comeback as a fastgrowing economy what is required in terms of economic policy japan is the second largest economy in the world it is the largest or second largest importer of most raw materials and it owns more foreign assets than any other country what happens to the japanese economy is therefore of great importance not only for the japanese but also for the entire world

a farm firm model of machinery investment decisions this article presents a multiperiod mixed integer programming mmip model of optimal machinery decisions infinite horizon valuation models of replacement and other investment situations are conceptualized in the context of a finite programming model dual properties of the mmip model are used to identify and value opportunity costs involved in investment decisions of farm machinery the interdependent nature of investment and production relationships necessary for solving these values emphasizes the importance of a holistic firm perspective in analyzing farm machinery investment strategies an empirical situation is used to demonstrate model application

carbon accounting of bioenergy and forest management nexus a reality check of modeling assumptions and expectations abstract the demand for wood based energy is foreseen to grow as energy and climate policies around the world promote the use of bioenergy for climate change mitigation however the carbon impacts of forest bioenergy range widely in the literature the value choices made on the response of forest management to bioenergy demand have a major influence on the results obtained from modeling exercises and may actually change the contribution of forest bioenergy from climate worsening to climate change mitigation despite their relevance there is very little information or transparency as to the empirical basis by which these assumptions are chosen and evaluated against this study aims to fill in this crucial knowledge gap through a mix of critical review analysis of historical statistical data and expert judgement several prominent studies reporting climate change mitigation from forest bioenergy in three countries are reviewed canada sweden and southeast usa this analysis shows that the studies rely on assumptions that bioenergy demand will spur supply responses aimed at more efficient forest management and or relative increases in forest area confronting literature assumptions with trends in historical data we present the most extensive reality check of bioenergy literature assumptions to date we find that studies projecting a large role of forest bioenergy in climate change mitigation rely on assumptions that are too optimistic at times outright unrealistic we believe scientists could avoid the misinterpretation of their results and improve the policy relevance of their work by more transparent reporting of i value laden assumptions ii their influence on the results iii the process and rationale behind such assumptions especially distinguishing between assumptions that reflect incremental changes in management from assumptions requiring transformational change in several industrial sectors

deferring versus expediting consumption the effect of outcome concreteness on sensitivity to time horizon abstract this work examines consumers preferences for consumption timing specifically the authors examine how temporal framing deferring versus expediting of a decision moderates the sensitivity of consumers pattern of discounting to changes in time horizon the results from three experiments show greater decline in consumers discount rates with time horizon i e greater present bias when they defer than when they expedite consumption these results are robust to using monetary and nonmonetary outcomes as well as to different time horizons months days the authors further demonstrate that the different levels of mental representations concreteness triggered by the two decision frames moderate this difference in sensitivity

barriers to efficiency and the privatization of township village enterprises abstract qian 2000 and others suggest that post 1994 tax and banking reforms in china combined with the development of markets for allocating resources influenced the economic performance of township village enterprises tves and private enterprises pes this paper uses chinese provincial level data to search for evidence of advantages and or disadvantages offered to tves and pes before and after the 1994 reforms we define a sectoral net income based measure of overall efficiency and decompose the measure into components that highlight the existence of credit constraints output target constraints and labour hiring constraints the results offer empirical support for qian and others explanation of why private enterprises eventually emerged as the dominant institution for allocating resources in post 1994 rural china

impacts of declining u s retail beef demand on farm level beef prices and production a systems model was estimated to determine the effects of declining u s retail beef demand on farm level beef prices and production retail beef demand declined by nearly 66 from 1976 to 1999 results indicate autonomous shifts in retail demand significantly impacted farm level demands and production based on equilibrium multipliers the 1976 99 reduction in beef demand decreased real slaughter cattle prices and production by 32 1 and 11 2 respectively real feeder cattle prices and production decreased by 8 0 and 22 6 respectively combining the decreases in farm prices and production slaughter and feeder cattle producers experienced a real revenue reduction of 13 3 billion 61 due to the long term decline in demand

examining crop price effects on production decision and resource allocation an ex ante approach this article examines the output price effects on the us crop production employing an ex ante approach to the differential systems of input demand and output supply the estimation results of the

the material experiential asymmetry in discounting when experiential purchases lead to more impatience consumers routinely make decisions about the timing of their consumption making tradeoffs between consuming now or later most of the literature examining impatience considers monetary outcomes i e delaying dollars implicitly assuming that how the money is spent does not systematically alter impatience levels and patterns the authors propose an impatience asymmetry for material and experiential purchases based on utility duration five studies provide evidence that consumers are more impatient toward experiential purchases compared to material purchases and that this increased impatience is driven by whether the value is extracted over a shorter utility duration often associated with experiential purchases or a longer utility duration often associated with material purchases thus when an experience is consumed over a longer period of time the results show that impatience can be diminished additional results show that the effect holds in both delay and expedite frames and suggest that the results cannot be explained by differences in scheduling time sensitivity affect ownership future time perspective or future connectedness

output input and productivity measurement in u s agriculture 1948 79 tornqvist theil indexes of outputs and inputs are constructed these data are used to construct indexes of productivity growth over the postwar period the productivity indexes can be derived from a flexible multioutput multifactor representation of the structure of production constrained to constant returns to scale total factor productivity grew at an average annual rate of 1 75 compared with 1 70 per year estimated by the u s department of agriculture the similar estimates of productivity growth overshadow some important differences in measurement of individual inputs the major effort in measuring agricultural productivity is undertaken by the u s department of agriculture usda an american agricultural economics association task force on measuring productivity has examined the sources and procedures used in constructing the official statistics see loomis and barton lambert barton and durost the task force recommended that the usda adopt a series of specific improvements for constructing certain inputs and use an indexing procedure that does not impose a priori restrictions on the structure of production 1 this paper presents revised indexes of outputs and inputs the data are used to construct indexes of productivity growth over the postwar period the productivity indexes can be derived from a flexible multioutput multifactor representation of the structure of production the translog transformation function constrained to constant returns to scale 2 the indexes of outputs and inputs have the same form and their ratio coincides with the estimate of productivity growth

the case for open market purchases in a liquidity trap prevalent thinking about liquidity traps suggests that the perfect substitutability of money and bonds at a zero short term nominal interest rate renders open market operations ineffective for achieving macroeconomic stabilization goals we show that even were this the case there remains a powerful argument for large scale open market operations as a fiscal policy tool as we also demonstrate however this same reasoning implies that open market operations will be beneficial for stabilization as well even when the economy is expected to remain mired in a liquidity trap for some time thus the microeconomic fiscal benefits of open market operations in a liquidity trap go hand in hand with standard macroeconomic objectives motivated by japan s recent economic experience we use a dynamic general equilibrium model to assess the welfare impact of open market operations for an economy in japan s predicament we argue japan can achieve a substantial welfare improvement through large open market purchases of domestic government debt

understanding the reductions in us corn ethanol production costs an experience curve approach the us is currently the world s largest ethanol producer an increasing percentage is used as transportation fuel but debates continue on its costs competitiveness and energy balance in this study technological development of ethanol production and resulting cost reductions are investigated by using the experience curve approach scrutinizing costs of dry grind ethanol production over the timeframe 1980 2005 cost reductions are differentiated between feedstock corn production and industrial ethanol processing corn production costs in the us have declined by 62 over 30 years down to 100 2005 tonne in 2005 while corn production volumes almost doubled since 1975 a progress ratio pr of 0 55 is calculated indicating a 45 cost decline over each doubling in cumulative production higher corn yields and increasing farm sizes are the most important drivers behind this cost decline industrial processing costs of ethanol have declined by 45 since 1983 to below 130 2005 m3 in 2005 excluding costs for corn and capital equivalent to a pr of 0 87 total ethanol production costs including capital and net corn costs have declined approximately 60 from 800 2005 m3 in the early 1980s to 300 2005 m3 in 2005 higher ethanol yields lower energy use and the replacement of beverage alcohol based production technologies have mostly contributed to this substantial cost decline in addition the average size of dry grind ethanol plants increased by 235 since 1990 for the future it is estimated that solely due to technological learning production costs of ethanol may decline 28 44 though this excludes effects of the current rising corn and fossil fuel costs it is also concluded that experience curves are a valuable tool to describe both past and potential future cost reductions in us corn based ethanol production

what is the cost of a renewable energy based approach to greenhouse gas mitigation energy policies for greenhouse gas ghg mitigation in the united states have set sector specific standards such as the renewable fuel standard rfs and the renewable portfolio standard rps for the transportation and the electricity sectors respectively this paper examines the welfare costs and effectiveness of ghg abatement with these policies and compares them with those under a carbon tax normalized to achieve the same level of abatement over the 2007 2030 period we show that the global welfare cost per ton of ghg abatement with the rfs and rps is 171 while with the carbon tax it is 7

quasi fixity and multiproduct firms abstract a short run model for the supply response and input demand of a multiproduct firm is developed based on the differential production approach a simple parameterization of the model is provided

the estimation of product supply and input demand by the differential approach this paper makes use of the differential approach to the theory of the multiproduct firm in order to empirically analyze input demand and product supply in italian agriculture estimation of the parameters of the model with annual 1961 80 data for a sector model of fourteen products and three factors of production suggests possibilities for farmers to change their output mix in response to changes in the expected prices of products on the input demand side the derived demand functions seem to satisfy the integrability conditions but turn out to be quite inelastic

supply and demand functions for multiproduct u s cash grain farms biases caused by research and other policies this study presents new estimates of supply and demand elasticities for u s multiproduct cash grain farms and estimates of input and output bias effects caused by public and private crop research extension and farmers schooling the study also shows that the social rate of return to public crop research is large about 62 percent

aggregation without separability tests of the united states and mexican agricultural production data the generalized composite commodity theorem gcct and testing procedure is extended to test for consistent aggregation of the united states and mexican agricultural production data in each category for which earlier tests rejected homothetic separability nonrejected gcct and separability hypotheses provide empirical support for aggregating all the united states agricultural outputs into as few as two categories crops and livestock mexican agricultural outputs also can be aggregated into as few as two categories support for aggregating all outputs into a single category is ambiguous in both countries and is only provided by the gcct

dynamic input demand functions and resource adjustment for us agriculture state evidence abstract the paper presents an econometric model of dynamic agricultural input demand functions that include research based technical change and autoregressive disturbances and fits the model to annual data for a set of state aggregates pooled over 1950 1982 the methodological approach is one of developing a theoretical foundation for a dynamic input demand system and accepting state aggreage behavior as approximated by nonlinear adjustment costs and long term profit maximization although other studies have largely ignored autocorrelation in dynamic input demand systems the results show shorter adjustment lags with autocorrelation than without dynamic input demand own price elasticities for the six input groups are inelastic and the demand functions possess significant cross price and research effects

on the equilibrium yen dollar rate this paper presents a definition of the long run equilibrium exchange rate that emphasizes the role of supply factors in addition to the more traditional price differential variables using this definition we estimate the long run equilibrium yen dollar rate during the period of 1973 87 this calculation demonstrates that supply factors are in fact very important determinants of the long run movement of the exchange rate despite the central role the exchange rates play in the economy economists seem to doubt their own ability to explain let alone predict exchange rate movements the reason is that in many cases structural exchange rate equations do not significantly outperform various other models that do not appeal to economic theory such as the random walk see for example richard meese and kenneth rogoff 1983 while we also share this pessimism concerning our ability to forecast exchange rates in the short run intradaily to monthly or quarterly we argue that it is possible to reasonably explain if not predict long run movements the long run equilibrium rate is most often thought to be determined by purchasing power parity ppp which tends to focus only on price differentials medium run divergences of the exchange rate from the long run equilibrium are therefore commonly identified with fluctuations in the inflation adjusted real exchange rate this paper demonstrates however that the simple ppp is unsatisfactory because it emphasizes only the inflation differential in the more elaborated theory of purchasing power parity of course the potential importance of supply side real factors as critical determinants of the exchange rate has been well recognized see for example john m keynes 1923 rudiger dornbusch stanley fischer and paul a samuelson 1977 alan stockman 1980 nevertheless in empirical applications and policy discussions these supply side real factors have been curiously ignored to our knowledge an exception is david hsieh 1982 the main point of this paper is to show that these supply side factors actually have been very important determinants of the yen dollar rate over the period of 1973 to 1987

drought ethanol and livestock abstract the 2012 drought in the u s midwest resulted in volatile crop prices with field crops constituting a major input in livestock production livestock producers sought a waiver to renewable fuel standard biofuel mandates they believed such a waiver would mitigate crop price volatility given crops are major inputs in biofuel production the u s environmental protection agency epa denied the waiver under the belief that the waiver would have minimal if any impact on mitigating price volatility employing a vecm the objective is to investigate if it was prudent for the epa to reject the waiver results generally support epa s conclusion that the waiver relaxing the biofuel mandate would have minimal impact

measurement of total factor productivity growth and biases in technological change in western australian agriculture this study investigates productivity growth in broad acre agriculture in western australia tornqvist indices of three output groups crops sheep products and other and five input groups livestock materials and services labour capital and land are constructed and discussed indices of total output and total inputs are also derived and used to form an index of total factor productivity that is observed to grow at an average annual rage of 2 7 the input and output indices are also used in the estimation of output supply and input demand equations derived from a flexible profit function the generalized mcfadden functional form is used because it is possible to impose global curvature upon it without loss of flexibility asymptotic chi square tests reject the hypotheses of hicks neutral technical change in inputs and in outputs technical change is observed to be materials and services saving relative to the other input groups and also appears to favour wool and sheepmeat production relative to the other output groups

costs and benefits to taxpayers consumers and producers from u s ethanol policies the u s ethanol industry is lobbying hard for an extension of existing ethanol import tariffs and blenders tax credits before they expire at the end of 2010 the purpose of this study is to examine the likely consequences on the u s ethanol industry corn producers taxpayers fuel blenders and fuel consumers if current policy is not extended impacts of different ethanol policies in both 2011 and 2014 were estimated estimates were obtained by developing a new stochastic model that calculates market clearing prices for u s ethanol brazilian ethanol and u s corn the model is stochastic because market clearing prices are calculated for 5 000 random draws of corn yields and wholesale gasoline prices key assumptions in this study are that the strong growth in flex fuel vehicles in brazil continues intermediate ethanol blends with few restrictions are implemented in u s markets in 2014 u s ethanol production capacity reaches 15 billion gallons in 2014 and brazilian ethanol production increases by at least 45 by 2014 projected strong demand for ethanol in brazil combined with a largely saturated u s ethanol market means that elimination of ethanol import tariffs would have almost no impact on u s corn and ethanol markets in 2011 elimination of the tax credit would impact markets modestly with ethanol production declining by an average of about 700 million gallons this reduction in ethanol production would cause corn prices to drop by an average of 23 cents per bushel ethanol prices would drop by 12 cents per gallon elimination of the tax credit would shift the burden of meeting mandates from taxpayers to blenders and consumers taxpayers would save more than 6 billion through elimination of the tax credit or almost 7 00 per gallon of ethanol produced in excess of mandated amounts the impacts of a change in u s ethanol policy in 2014 are larger than 2011 impacts because brazil has a chance to respond by ramping up its ability to export in response to trade liberalization but because of strong domestic demand growth in brazil and limits on how fast brazilian ethanol production can increase the impacts of a change in policy are still modest as long as the mandate is maintained u s ethanol production drops by no more than 500 million gallons corn prices drop by no more than 16 cents per bushel and ethanol prices drop by no more than 35 cents per gallon if the impact of intermediate blends is not as strong as assumed in this study then there will be less incentive for brazil to export ethanol and the impacts of tariff elimination would be even more modest

food vs fuel the effect of biofuel policies the rise in food commodity prices since 2004 which reached record highs in 2008 has coincided with the tripling of corn ethanol production from 15 billion liters bl to 50 bl over the 2004 2010 period this has spurred the food vs fuel debate and raised questions about the extent to which biofuels have contributed to the increase in food crop prices estimates of the impact of observed levels of biofuel production differ widely across studies and lie between 20 and 60 hochman et al 2011 biofuel production in the united states us has surged as a result of government policies like the renewable fuel standard rfs volumetric ethanol excise tax credit veetc for blenders of ethanol and tariffs that restrict the imports of sugarcane ethanol the rfs authorized by the energy independence and security act eisa of 2007 has set ambitious targets of increasing biofuel production sixfold to 136 bl by 2022 with over 60 of it to be met by advanced biofuels produced using non corn starch based feedstocks a 0 12 liter veetc is provided to blenders of ethanol to reduce their costs of meeting the rfs while a tariff of 0 14 liter and an ad valorem tariff of 2 5 were enacted to prevent transfer of the tax credit to ethanol producers in brazil the current veetc and import tariff expired in 2011 with increasing federal debt and concerns about the impact of these policies on food and feed prices political support for the

the role of federal renewable fuel standards and market structure on the growth of the cellulosic biofuel sector abstract this article examines the effect of the renewable fuel standards and market power on the growth of the cellulosic biofuel sector we develop a sectoral model to show how changes in the regulations governing cellulosic fuel production affect the equilibrium quantity of cellulosic ethanol based on model calibration for washington state we find that existing low cost waivers purchased by obligated parties in lieu of cellulosic fuel production negate the effectiveness of the renewable fuel standard to induce the production and consumption of cellulosic biofuels however raising waiver price slightly relative to the status quo significantly increases the equilibrium quantity of cellulosic ethanol the high cost of cellulosic ethanol production is often cited as the cause of the lack of cellulosic ethanol production which is used to justify low waiver prices our policy message is the converse the low current waiver price significantly contributes to the cellulosic ethanol market stagnation in the context of the current biofuel policy

dynamic factor demand equations in u s and canadian agriculture abstract this research provides one of the first empirical estimates of a data based dynamic factor demand model for american and canadian agriculture models such as these deserve more widespread use in the empirical analysis of agriculture these models have the advantage that they do not impose inappropriate dynamics on the data rather they permit the data to select the appropriate dynamics we use a model originally developed by anderson and blundell this model is a general first order dynamic model which contains as testable hypothesis several simpler models this model permits us to estimate the long run agricultural production structure as a subset of the dynamic parameter estimates we will test this long run structure for symmetry homotheticity and neutral technical change the estimated models may be used to test for three alternative dynamic structures in the limit dynamics may not be needed and we can test for the static long run equilibrium model two intermediate cases are the autoregressive and the partial adjustment models which are simpler than the general model but still include dynamics our results suggest that the long run equilibrium model is unsatisfactory in both countries a dynamic model is needed in both countries the two more restricted dynamic models are rejected the general dynamic model is required in canada the long run equilibrium structure is homothetic with neutral technical change in the united states homotheticity is also accepted but neutral technical change is rejected

japan s negative risk premium in interest rates the liquidity trap and the fall in bank lending japan s interest rates have been compressed toward zero because of pressure coming through the foreign exchanges twenty years of current account surpluses have led to a huge buildup of claims mainly dollars on foreigners because of ongoing fluctuations in the yen dollar exchange rate japanese financial institutions will only willingly hold these dollar claims if the nominal yield on them is substantially higher than on yen assets in the 1990s to 2002 as us interest rates have come down portfolio equilibrium has been sustained only when nominal interest rates on yen assets have been forced toward zero one consequence is the now infamous liquidity trap for japanese monetary policy a second consequence is the erosion of the normal profit margins of japan s commercial banks leading to a slump in new bank credit and an inability to grow out of the overhang of old bad loans

removing distortions in the u s ethanol market what does it imply for the united states and brazil we analyze the impact of trade liberalization and removal of the federal tax credit in the united states on ethanol markets using a multimarket international ethanol model we find that u s trade barriers have been effective in protecting the ethanol industry under current policy there is separability of the u s ethanol market from world markets with trade liberalization the ethanol market deepens making it less susceptible to price volatility the effect of trade liberalization extends beyond ethanol markets affecting agricultural markets the results show that the impact of removal of the tax credit overrides the impact of the tariff removal copyright 2008 oxford university press

an empirical input allocation model for the cost minimizing multiproduct firm laitinen and theil 1978 derive a theoretical input allocation model for a multiproduct firm that first minimizes cost and second maximizes profit however its empirical counterpart is not available we linearize the model and derive a general empirically estimable model

a multivariate evaluation of ex ante risks associated with fed cattle production the purpose of this paper is to evaluate production risks faced by fed cattle producers we do this by jointly modeling a group of cattle production yield risk factors using a multivariate dynamic regression model the proposed econometric model estimates parameters that influence the mean and variance of production yield factors as well as the covariance between variables while accounting for a high degree of censoring through the use of a dynamic multivariate tobit model the model provides insights into the relationship between production yield factors in fed cattle production copyright 2007 oxford university press

argentine agricultural policy in a multiple input multiple output framework argentine agricultural output grew at a rate of about 1 4 per year between 1940 and 1972 cavallo and mundlak p 13 which is a very sluggish growth rate given earlier rates of 1 8 for 1908 20 and 2 2 1920 40 schultz it also is sluggish relative to growth in u s agricultural output of 1 9 during the same period adjusting for factor use total factor productivity in argentine agriculture grew at a rate of only 0 6 during this period compared to 1 2 in the rest of the argentine economy cavallo and mundlak and compared to about 1 9 in u s agriculture usda a number of hypotheses have been offered to

supply of cellulosic biofuel feedstocks and regional production pattern interest in cellulosic biofuels has grown due to recent concerns about the impact of expanding production of corn ethanol on food prices and the greater potential of cellulosic biofuels to mitigate climate change the energy independence and security act eisa of 2007 limits the production of corn ethanol to 56 billion liters after 2015 and mandates the production of at least 80 of the 136 billion liters of ethanol from non corn starch based cellulosic feedstocks by 2022 the biomass research and development act of 2000 had established an even more ambitious goal of using biomass to replace the equivalent of 30 of current petroleum consumption by 2030 and estimated that this would require 1 billion dry short tons of biomass annually u s department of energy usdoe 2003 biomass can be obtained from several different sources including forest resources crop residues woody biomass and perennial grasses a usda usdoe report perlack et al 2005 examined the technical feasibility of sustaining this supply of biomass and the land resources that would be required under alternative scenarios with yield enhancing and other technological changes in conventional crops and perennial bioenergy crops the study estimated that 0 54 to 1 billion dry tons of agricultural crop based biomass could be obtained annually from cropland idle cropland and cropland pasture with moderate to high productivity gains in crop productivity residue collection and tillage practices

investment under uncertainty and dynamic adjustment in the finnish pork industry bykyosti s pietola and robert j myersmay 1998paper prepared for a selected paper session at the annual meeting of the american agriculturaleconomics association salt lake city utah august 1998 this research was financed jointly byagricultural economics research institute in finland the academy of finland and the finnishcultural foundation we also knowledge the michigan agricultural experiment station for itssupport of this research authors are agricultural economist agricultural economics research institute helsinki finland and associate professor department of agricultural economics michigan state university eastlansing copyright 1998 by kyosti s pietola and robert j myers all rights reserved readers may makeverbatim copies of this document for non commercial purposes by any means provided that thiscopyright notice appears on all such copies

output supply and input demand system of commercial and backyard poultry producers in indonesia indonesia s domestic broiler production has grown rapidly in part because of a ban on imports of poultry parts and strict inspection and meat certification requirements whether indonesia will continue to protect the domestic broiler sector and import feed grains and other inputs or whether it will directly import meat products is a relevant question to many stakeholders this study uses a normalized quadratic function to estimate the output supply of commercial and backyard broiler producers in indonesia and the input demand for three major inputs day old chicks feed and labor data come from three datasets a 1996 household survey and 1996 and 2000 surveys of commercial producers for the most recent dataset the own price elasticity in both the output supply and feed input demand equations were found to be significant the signs of the elasticities were theoretically consistent with a positive supply and negative demand elasticity the magnitudes of the elasticities were smaller than expected the supply elasticity was 0 285 the inelastic supply explains the high border protection imposed by indonesia which in turn implies that any income driven expansion in the quantity of broiler product demanded would be quickly constrained by rising prices consequently supply from imports would become attractive and would dampen any incentive for growth in the domestic sector this result cast doubt on the long term sustainability of indonesia s import substitution policy regime

estimating intertemporal supply response in the fed beef market a partial adjustment model with monthly lag structures on expected output and input prices is used to estimate intertemporal supply behavior of fed beef previous research has provided conflicting supply elasticities the present work reconciles the conflicts by integrating different lengths of run into cattle marketing and placement decisions for example the model dynamics incorporate short run changes in cattle asset values and long run adjustments in resource use empirical results provide no evidence of short run supply fixity supply elasticities switch from negative to positive over time

a dynamic adjustment model for u s agriculture 1948 79 abstract a multioutput model is developed within the adjustment cost framework to analyze the structure of dynamic adjustments in u s agriculture during the post war period an important feature of this model is that the econometric model is consistent with dynamic economic theory fluctuations in capital stocks variable inputs and outputs are explained by changing opportunity costs empirical results indicated that durable equipment farm produced durables and family labor exhibited significant rigidity in adjustment as a response to exogenous shocks surprisingly the hypothesis that real estate was a variable input could not be rejected the univariate flexible accelerator hypothesis which is widely maintained in most agricultural adjustment studies is inconsistent with the data

a one line proof of the slutsky equation one focus of the usual classroom discussion of consumer theory is the demonstration that the individual consumer s reaction to a change in the market price of a commodity can be usefully broken down into vectors of substitution effects and income effects the slutskv equation relating the price effect to the substitution and income effects can be simply nmotivated by j r hicks graphical presentation p 31 but the usual proof see paul samuelson is very tedious and nonintuitive if the instructor includes a discussion of the expenditure function in his curriculum however he has available a concise intuitively appealing proof of the slutsky equation 1 suppose a consumer with income y faces a vector of commoditv prices p his marshallian demand curve for commodity j is given by xj dj y p the minimum expenditure necessary for the consumer to achieve any utility level u is given by his expenditure function y m u p here y is in units of the jth good his hicksian income compensated demand for commodity j is represented xj hi u p if m is differentiable we have the well known result that

the structure of food demand interrelatedness and duality this paper presents a new empirical demand system which mitigates the effects of multicollinearity while facilitating the measurement of interrelatedness duality theory is used to derive the inverse demand functions using data on fourteen food items a complete set of demand equations is estimated in both quantity and price dependent forms the model is used to test for the theoretical restrictions of homogeneity additivity and negativity as well as the habit formation hypothesis a comparison is made between these results and those of brandow and george and king

the multivariate flexible accelerator model its empirical restrictions and an application to u s manufacturing this paper derives an exhaustive set of restrictions implied by the multistock flexible accelerator specification of the adjustment cost model for the firm the flexible accelerator specification of the demand for capital and labor is estimated using u s manufacturing annual data for the 1947 1976 period the consistency of the data with the model is examined by testing the validity of the derived restrictions finally the conditions which permit aggregation over firms are determined and tested empirically the flexible accelerator specification has been popular in the empirical literature on interrelated investment and employment decisions see nadiri and rosen 38 coen and hickman 10 and schramm 40 more recent examples include sargent 39 berndt fuss and wavermann 4 berndt and morrison 6 and meese 34 under suitable assumptions the specification may be rationalized by the adjustment cost model of the firm eisner and strotz 13 lucas 30 mortensen 35 extends the work of lucas and derives some empirically testable restrictions of the accelerator specification that are implied by the adjustment cost framework the broad objective of this paper is to provide a more rigorous and comprehensive test of the adjustment cost model than is presently found in the literature this objective is achieved in three stages first we offer an alternative derivation of the mortensen restrictions and more importantly we prove theorem 1 that his restrictions are exhaustive i e we establish an integrability result for the flexible accelerator adjustment cost model second the flexible accelerator specification of the demand for capital and labor is estimated using total u s manufacturing annual data for the 1947 76 period it is assumed that firms minimize expected production costs subject to a technology which implies that capital and labor stocks are costly to adjust while a third factor materials is freely adjustable the consistency of the data with the adjustmentcost framework is examined by testing for the validity of the derived restrictions further we test the validity of some separability restrictions on the adjustmentcost technology that to varying degrees are imposed a priori in all of the cited empirical studies finally we provide a complete characterization of the individual firm technologies which justify the common assumption of the existence of a representative firm this problem of aggregation over firms which has been

decompositions of corn price effects implications for feed grain demand and livestock supply this article examines how corn prices affect the demand for feed grains and the supply of livestock outputs the differential approach to the theory of the multiproduct firm is employed to examine ex ante decisions about feed grain demand and livestock supply the estimation results suggest that livestock producers have little flexibility in adjusting the demand for corn in response to an increase in corn prices the substitutable relationship between corn and distillers grains contributes to alleviating pressures on feed costs in response to high corn prices in addition the estimation results highlight that the composition of livestock supply can be altered by changes in livestock prices on the basis of the estimated elasticities the decompositions of profit maximizing input demand are conducted to examine the effects of changes in corn prices on feed grain demand and livestock supply the decomposition results reveal that an increase in corn prices reduces corn demand but raises the demand for distillers grains mainly due to the substitution effects of corn price changes the decomposition results also show that an increase in the price of corn reduces cattle supply but raises the supply of chicken and pork due to the output relationships in supply

context dependent drivers of discretionary debt decisions explaining willingness to borrow for experiential purchases mental accounting research suggests that consumers prefer borrowing for longer lasting purchases in order to receive benefits from the purchases as they pay for them in contrast two sets of archival data and five lab studies show that consumers are more willing to borrow for experiential versus material purchases even though experiential purchases tend to have a shorter physical duration further framing the same purchase as more experiential than material increases willingness to borrow this effect occurs because purchase timing is more important for experiential purchases a function of consumers aversion to missing out on planned consumption thus we moderate the proposed effect by varying whether the borrowing decision impacts planned consumption other differences between material and experiential purchases such as scarcity or expected happiness cannot similarly explain our results moreover our conceptualization allows us to reconcile the apparent contradiction between the previous and current research by examining the relative impact of purchase timing importance and payment benefit duration matching in different contexts i e purchasing and source of funding decisions

measuring the energy input substitution and output effects of energy price changes and the implications for the environment abstract previous studies of decomposition of factor inputs have limited their analysis on the estimation of substitution and output effects however this paper develops a two step approach to estimate the substitution and output effects of changes in energy demand resulting from changes in prices and further examines the implications of these effects on co2 emissions using european industrial dataset over the period 1995 2007 in our empirical estimations instead of relying only on isur model like previous studies we introduced a multilevel model which is a more befitting model to our data our analysis covers industry as a whole and for different sector types the primary results emerged from our analysis suggest a strong evidence using the multilevel model generally our results show that production inputs are substitutable we find the substitution and output effects to be negatively related to co2 emissions however the substitution effects dominate from policy perspectives our results suggest that output adjustments may not play a significant role in reducing emissions we find the overall effects of changes in energy demand to be moderate then we argue that increment in energy taxes should be complemented by cleaner factor substitution and sustainable growth to achieve a desirable carbon reduction

decomposing energy demand across briic countries energy plays an important role within the production technology of fast emerging economies such that firms reaction to changes in energy prices provides useful information on factor productivity and factor intensity as well as the likely outcome of energy policy initiatives among other things drawing on duality theory this paper decomposes changes in energy demand into substitution and output effects using annual sector level production data for brazil russia india indonesia and china briic for the period 1995 2009 unlike previous studies this study analyzed the economic properties of the underlying production technology results indicate that changes in energy demand are strongly dominated by substitution effects more importantly an intriguing finding that emerges from our analysis is the role of economies of scale and factor accumulation as opposed to technical progress in giving rise to the growth performance of sampled economies

dynamic interfeed substitution implications for incorporating ethanol byproducts into feedlot rations abstractthis study examines interfeed substitution with a focus on the relationship between distiller s dried grain with solubles ddgs and traditional feed grains the dynamic linear logit model is used for the empirical analysis of interfeed substitution the estimation results reveal that an increase in livestock and poultry outputs reduces the relative shares of corn and soybean meal to ddgs the estimated adjustment rate indicates that the demand for feed grains is responsive in the short run with about 37 of the long run response this study also finds that the demand for corn and soybean meal remains inelastic even in the long run showing the possibilities that livestock and poultry producers face high feed costs in response to an increase in the prices of corn and soybean meal the pressures on feed costs can be alleviated by the substitutable relationship between ddgs and corn but the substitution of ddgs for corn has a potential to provide livestock and poultry with different nutritional con

an econometric model of cattle inventories dynamic regression equations are estimated for each beef cattle breeding herd and beef cattle inventories at two levels of aggregation the u s and montana the analysis for montana was utilized as a guide for specification of the national equation to reduce the inference problem associated with letting the sample data help specify the model rational lags on average price received by farmers for calves and the ratio of fed beef to corn prices at omaha constitute the primary explanatory variables the equations perform exceedingly well over the sample period 1950 80 and in post sample forecasts with the sample truncated back to 1970

market power and the cattle cycle the relationship between the dynamic cattle cycle and the potential for market power in cattle purchases has rarely been studied this paper provides a conceptual framework showing how the cattle cycle and buyer market power are related not only does a larger cattle stock lead to a lower fed cattle price but the cattle stock s negative effect on price is magnified by the degree of buyer market power in cattle procurement empirical findings support the posited theoretical relationships and help explain why previous researchers reached different conclusions regarding the extent of market power in the industry copyright 2010 oxford university press

procrastination of enjoyable experiences abstract the tendency to procrastinate applies not only to aversive tasks but also to positive experiences with immediate benefits the authors propose that models of time discounting can explain this behavior and they test these predictions with field data and experiments a multicity study shows that people with unlimited time windows delay visiting desirable landmarks however procrastination is reduced when the window of opportunity is constrained similarly people procrastinate in redeeming gift certificates and gift cards with long deadlines more than those with short deadlines resulting in overall lower redemption rates these results run counter to participants predictions and typical models of impulsive behavior

excess liquidity inflation and the yuan appreciation what can china learn from recent history this paper analyses the issues of excess liquidity inflation and the exchange rate appreciation currently evolving in china in mapping the co movement between excess liquidity and inflation and developing a dynamic model the paper shows that excess liqu idity ignited by dramatic capital inflows is a significant driver for consumer price inflation in china during the last decade in addition the article compares the dynamic paths of inflation and interest rates between china and the united states and reveals marked changes in their differ entials over recent years associating these findings with the evolving appreciation of the yuan against the dollar the paper a dvises a slowdown in the rate of rmb appreciation instead of quick appreciation the paper proposes more flexibility in the rmb exchange rate regime combined with alternative capital control measures to rein in excess liquidity and curb ongoing inflation in china

numeraire choice in agricultural supply analysis should the choice of numeraire price for modelling profit functions be arbitrary or is more careful study needed here the choice of numeraire is examined using tests for models specification and out of sample predictive accuracy based on the crop and livestock data obtained from iowa the results of this study indicate that for this data set and functional form it does indeed make a difference which numeraire you choose this is in contrast to previous studies which in general indicated that the choice of numeraire equation is arbitrary or more commonly offered no justification for the netput chosen

discounting time and time discounting subjective time perception and intertemporal preferences abstract consumers often make decisions about outcomes and events that occur over time this research examines consumers sensitivity to the prospective duration relevant to their decisions and the implications of such sensitivity for intertemporal trade offs especially the degree of present bias i e hyperbolic discounting the authors show that participants subjective perceptions of prospective duration are not sufficiently sensitive to changes in objective duration and are nonlinear and concave in objective time consistent with psychophysical principles more important this lack of sensitivity can explain hyperbolic discounting the results replicate standard hyperbolic discounting effects with respect to objective time but show a relatively constant rate of discounting with respect to subjective time perceptions the results are replicated between subjects experiment 1 and within subjects experiments 2 with multiple time horizons and multiple descriptors and with different measurement ord

asymmetric adjustment of dynamic factors at the firm level presents a study which addressed the deficiencies of previous studies the specification and estimation in the modeling of asymmetry and zero gross investment in the agricultural industry reference to previous studies on asymmetry information on the standard dual model results of the study

numeraire choice in normalized quadratic functional forms a semi nested test procedure is developed for choosing the numeraire for a normalized quadratic profit function when too few observations exist for nested hypothesis testing and when too many alternatives exis for conventional non nested testing sensitivity of empirical results to choice of numeraire price is examined using agricultural data for the us and ten multistate regions few test conclusions vary by numeraire but own price input demand elasticities differ greatly

product aggregation bias as a specification error in demand systems inherent in all demand studies is some form of product aggregation which can lead to product aggregation bias this article develops a simple procedure for incorporating product aggregation bias in demand systems that permits testing of product aggregation bias with a standard likelihood ratio test an empirical illustration of the procedure demonstrates the importance of proper product aggregation

multiproduct supply and input demand in u s agriculture two sets of u s agricultural output supply and input demand relationships including cross price effects are reported for five commodity groups and four variable input groups for the 1951 82 period they are obtained by direct econometric estimation on u s data and by geographic aggregation from published econometric estimates for each of ten regions comprising the contiguous forty eight states the supply and demand formulations are specified on the assumptions of competitive behavior and an underlying normalized quadratic profit function the effects of upward sloping input supply curves are examined at the national level

the welfare economics of a biofuel tax credit and the interaction effects with price contingent farm subsidies a framework is developed to analyze the effects of a biofuel consumer tax exemption and the interaction effects with a price contingent farm subsidy ethanol prices rise above the gasoline price by the amount of the tax credit corn farmers gain directly while gasoline consumers only gain from any reduction in world oil prices due to the extra ethanol production domestic oil producers lose historically the intercept of the ethanol supply curve is above the gasoline price hence part of the tax credit is redundant and represents rectangular deadweight costs that dwarf triangular deadweight cost measures of traditional farm subsidies copyright 2007 oxford university press

an empirical input allocation model for the multiproduct firm laitinen 1980 derives an input allocation model for a multiproduct firm that first maximizes revenue and second maximizes profit while theoretically elegant the model has never been formulated empirically because of the complexity of the model s price deflated terms this paper derives the linear parameterization of the input allocation model that can be used for empirical estimation

anticipation and the valuation of delayed consumption this paper presents a model of intertemporal choice that incorporates savoring and dread i e utility from anticipat ion of delayed consumption the model explains why an individual with positive time preference may delay desirable outcomes or get unpleas ant outcomes over with quickly contrary to the prediction of convent ional formulations of intertemporal choice implications of savoring and dread for savings behavior empirical estimation of discount rate s and public policy efforts to combat myopic behavior are explored the model provides an explanation for common violations of the indepe ndence axiom as applied to intertemporal choice copyright 1987 by royal economic society

impacts of ethanol policy on corn prices a review and meta analysis of recent evidence abstract the literature on the impacts of biofuels on agricultural commodity prices is characterized by contradictory findings we review studies published between 2007 and 2014 that estimate the effects of u s corn ethanol policy on corn prices and find estimates ranging from nil to over 80 such divergent results make it difficult to assess the merits of alternative biofuel policies to bring more clarity to the issue and facilitate comparisons across studies we assemble a database of over 150 medium to long run estimates of the effect of corn ethanol production on corn prices from 29 published studies we first normalize corn price impacts by the change in corn ethanol volume to control for the large differences in ethanol quantities across scenarios we then conduct a meta analysis to identify the factors that drive the remaining variation in corn price impacts across studies in addition to ethanol volumes we find that modeling framework projection year inclusion of ethanol co products and biofuel production from other feedstocks explain much of the differences in price effects the results indicate that a one billion gallon expansion of the us corn ethanol mandate in the year 2015 would lead to a three to four percent increase in corn prices with smaller price changes projected in future years

the foreign exchange origins of japan s economic slump and low interest liquidity trap japan s macroeconomic problem has yet to be properly diagnosed throughout the 1990s policy makers could not decide on the proper macro economic measures to combat the country s severe economic slump we propose a unified explanation with deep historical roots of why aggregate private demand failed to recover after japan s stock and real estate bubbles burst in 1991 and deflationary pressure continues the problem is not purely made in japan it arises from japan s unbalanced mercantile relationship with the united states starting in the early 1970s numerous trade disputes between the two countries created tensions that were temporarily resolved by the yen going ever higher against the dollar up to 1995 in the last two decades this persistent pressure for the yen to rise was further aggravated by japan s large current account saving surpluses as the counterpart of america s large current account saving deficits the legacy is the expectation that trade and financial tensions will recur so that the yen will be higher 10 20 or 30 years from now with japan s wholesale price level forced correspondingly lower and nominal interest rates on yen assets remaining more than four percentage points less than those on dollar assets this fear of yen appreciation whose timing is erratic and unpredictable now inhibits private domestic investment by both japanese firms and households our theory also explains why in the late 1990s nominal interest rates on short term yen assets were compressed toward zero so as to destroy the normal profit margins of the banking system in this liquidity trap the bank of japan whose monetary policy has been quite expansionary is powerless to stimulate the flagging economy to spring the liquidity trap eliminate deflationary pressure and restore macro economic balance in japan the american and japanese governments must act jointly to quash the expectation that the yen will be higher in the future than it is today

input demands and inefficiency in u s agriculture markov chain monte carlo mcmc methods are used to estimate a seemingly unrelated regression sur system of input demand functions for u s agriculture our demand functions have flexible forms and allow for nonrandom technical inefficiency concavity constraints are imposed at individual data points and the distributions of measures of relative technical efficiency are constrained to the unit interval results are evaluated in terms of characteristics of the posterior distributions of parameters measures of relative technical efficiency and other nonlinear functions of the parameters

net investment in farm tractors an econometric analysis a wide range of assumptions about the capital deterioration and marginal factor cost of tractors has been made in previous studies this study develops a measure of the implicit rental price of tractors which accounts for the capital structure used by farmers the capacity depreciation of tractors and income tax considerations estimates of net investment models for alternative capacity depreciation patterns are compared to those suggested by engineering considerations the results show that the frequently used geometric decay pattern does the poorest job of explaining annual real net investment in farm tractors

duality the output effect and applied comparative statics except for kako agricultural production studies using cost functions have analyzed technology via allen elasticities technological change parameters and homotheticity tests kako used a transcendental logarithmic translog cost function to decompose empirically changes in derived factor demand into three separate components output level factor substitution effects and technical change kako s work allows further investigation of technical change on derived factor demands however kako s output effect is different from the traditional concept the production analog of the income effect in consumer theory this note outlines a theoretical and econometric approach for measuring the output effect the output effect is important because it presents a more complete picture of factor employment adjustments than do demand elasticities generated from cost functions elasticities generated from cost functions restrict the producer to a given level of output producers however may also adjust output as factor prices change the output effect captures this adjustment this paper demonstrates a method for deriving the output effect from the cost function first the general assumptions and the model are outlined then the cost function is related to the indirect production function and the output effect obtained results are presented for the special case of a homothetic production function the paper concludes with an empirical application to the u s meat products industry

determining consumers discount rates with field studies abstract because utility profits state transitions and discount rates are confounded in dynamic models discount rates are typically fixed for the purpose of identification the authors propose a strategy of identifying discount rates the identification rests on imputing the utility profits using decisions made in a context in which the future is inconsequential the objective function is concave and the decision space is continuous they then use these utilities profits to identify discount rates in contexts in which dynamics become material the authors exemplify this strategy using a field study in which cell phone users transitioned from a linear to a three part tariff pricing plan they find that the estimated discount rate corresponds to a weekly discount factor 90 lower than the value typically assumed in empirical research 995 when using a standard 995 discount factor they find that the price coefficient is underestimated by 16 moreover the predicted intertemporal substitution pat

an economic analysis of the cattlemen s beef promotion and research board demand enhancing programmes abstractthe research reported here addressed two objectives the first objective was to measure the overall impact of the cattlemen s beef board as well as eight specific advertising promotion and research activities on us beef demand the second objective was to compute marginal benefit cost ratios bcrs for the eight individual checkoff activities and for the overall programme the results indicated that cattlemen s beef board s promotion activities increased total domestic beef demand by 15 7 billion pounds in total or 2 1 billion pounds per year between 2006 and 2014 collectively the overall marginal bcr for all cattlemen s beef board activities was 11 20

on intertemporal selfishness how the perceived instability of identity underlies impatient consumption how does the anticipated connectedness between one s current and future identity help explain impatience in intertemporal preferences the less consumers are closely connected psychologically to their future selves the less willing they will be to forgo immediate benefits in order to ensure larger deferred benefits to be received by that future self when consumers measured or manipulated sense of continuity with their future selves is lower they accept smaller sooner rewards wait less in order to save money on a purchase require a larger premium to delay receiving a gift card and have lower long term discount rates

demand for farm output in a complete system of demand functions demand interrelationships for farm outputs that are theoretically consistent with consumer demand and marketing group behavior provide important linkages between retail and farm prices a conceptual model based on reduced form specifications for retail and farm prices is formulated and applied empirically to a set of eight disaggregated food commodities this approach circumvents the need for retail quantities which are frequently unavailable for disaggregated food commodities the results are consistent with theory and generally indicate significant substitution between farm and marketing inputs except for poultry derived demand elasticities are at least 40 larger compared to those derived assuming fixed proportions

100 bills on the sidewalk suboptimal investment in 401 k plans we identify employees at seven companies whose 401 k investment choices are dominated because they are contributing less than the employer matching contribution threshold despite being vested in their match and being able to make penalty free 401 k withdrawals for any reason because they are older than 59 at the average firm 36 of match eligible employees over 59 forego arbitrage profits that average 1 6 of their annual pay or 507 a survey educating employees about the free lunch they are foregoing raised contribution rates by a statistically insignificant 0 67 percent of income among those completing the survey

estimation of area elasticities from a standard profit function this article demonstrates that both crop area and output elasticities can be calculated from a profit function a chambers just profit function which includes land allocations as quasi fixed factors is used to derive shadow price equations for each crop area allocation jointly solving these shadow price equations for crop area makes it possible to calculate individual crop area elasticities a profit function is specified to represent agricultural producers in the state of iowa shadow price equations are jointly estimated with output supply and input demand equations from these estimated equations we derive the individual crop area response and output response to a change in prices

the risk taking channel of monetary policy transmission in the euro area abstract in this paper we provide evidence for a risk taking channel of monetary policy transmission in the euro area that works through the relaxation of lending standards for borrowers our dataset covers the period 2003q1 2016q2 and includes in addition to the standard variables for real gdp growth inflation and the monetary policy stance indicators of bank lending standards and bank lending margins based on vector autoregressive models with i recursive identification and ii sign restrictions we show that banks react aggressively to an expansionary monetary policy shock by lowering their lending standards the banks efforts to keep their lending margin stable however are not successful as we detect a significant compression we document these findings for the euro area as a whole and for its individual member states in particular banks in the netherlands portugal spain and ireland lowered their lending standards after expansionary monetary policy shocks the compression of the lending margin is most pronounced in the five crisis countries greece ireland italy portugal and spain

investment in u s agriculture resource adjustment problems in u s agriculture are motivated against the background of the farm problem the adjustment cost hypothesis is invoked to specify and estimate consistently a system of dynamic investment demand and output supply equations by utilizing recent advances in dynamic duality theory the investment demand equations assume the form of a multivariate flexible accelerator results indicate that labor capital services and land exhibited quasi fixity while intermediate materials were a variable factor this can be construed as a form of asset fixity within aggregate u s agriculture the univariate flexible accelerator hypothesis is rejected

alternative transportation fuel standards welfare effects and climate benefits this paper develops an integrated model of the fuel and agricultural sectors to analyze the welfare and greenhouse gas emission ghg effects of the existing renewable fuel standard rfs a low carbon fuel standard lcfs and a carbon price policy the conceptual framework shows that these policies differ in the incentives they create for the consumption and mix of different types of biofuels and in their effects on food and fuel prices and ghg emissions we also simulate the welfare and ghg effects of these three policies which are normalized to achieve the same level of us ghg emissions by promoting greater production of food crop based biofuels the rfs is found to lead to a larger reduction in fossil fuel use but also a larger increase in food prices and a smaller reduction in global ghg emissions compared to the lcfs and carbon tax all three policies increase us social welfare compared to a no biofuel baseline scenario due to improved terms of trade even when environmental benefits are excluded global social welfare increases with a carbon tax but decreases with the rfs and lcfs due to the efficiency costs imposed by these policies even after including the benefits of mitigating ghg emissions

modeling beef supply response and price volatility under cap reforms the case of greece abstract this study examines the supply response of the greek beef market and the possible effect of the european union s common agricultural policy cap on the greek beef sector during the period 1993 2005 a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity garch process is used to estimate expected price and price volatility while several different symmetric asymmetric and non linear garch models are estimated the empirical results show that price volatility and feed price are important risk factors in the supply response function while the negative asymmetric price volatility that was detected implies that producers have a weak market position furthermore the empirical findings confirm that the annual premium paid by the eu to beef producers had a positive impact on the production level and also the change of the eu price support regime after 2006 is having negative effects on beef production level in greece