household saving in ldcs credit markets insurance and welfare some ways in which farmers in ldcs can protect their living standards against fluctuations in income are discussed after considering the theory of consumption under uncertainty when there is no or limited borrowing the case where some borrowing is allowed is also examined empirical evidence from some ldcs is used to look at i household borrowing and lending their importance and timing and their role in smoothing consumption and ii the life cycle behavior of consumption and income the results suggest that hump lifecycle saving is not likely to be a very important generator of wealth in ldcs and provide further evidence on the limited role of credit markets

dynamic savings decisions in agricultural environments with incomplete markets we develop a methodology for examining savings behavior in rural areas of developing countries that explicitly incorporates the sequential decision process in agriculture the approach is used to examine the relative importance of alternative forms of savings in the presence and absence of formal financial intermediaries our results based on stage specific panel data from pakistan provide evidence that the presence of financial intermediaries importantly influences the use of formal savings and transfers for income smoothing we also find that there are significant biases in evaluations of the savings income relationship that are inattentive to the within year dynamics of agricultural production

the microfinance promise in the past decade microfinance programs have demonstrated that it is possible to lend to low income households while maintaining high repayment rates even without requiring collateral the programs promise a revolution in approaches to alleviating poverty and spreading financial services and millions of poor households are served globally a growing body of economic theory demonstrates how new contractual forms offer a key to microfinance success particularly the use of group lending contracts with joint liability for the most part however high repayment rates have not translated into profits and studies of impacts on poverty yield a mixed picture in describing emerging tensions the paper highlights the diversity of innovative mechanisms beyond group lending contracts the measurement of financial sustainability the estimation of economic and social impacts the costs and benefits of subsidization and the potential to reduce poverty through savings programs rather than just credit the promise of microfinance has pushed far ahead of the evidence and an agenda is put forward for addressing critical empirical gaps and sharpening the terms of policy discussion

the elite variable in democratic transitions and breakdowns stable democratic regimes depend heavily on the consensual unity of national elites so long as elites remain disunified political regimes are unstable a condition which makes democratic transitions and democratic breakdowns merely temporary oscillations in the forms unstable regimes take disunity appears to be the generic condition of national elites and disunity strongly tends to persist regardless of socioeconomic development and other changes in mass populations the consensually unified elites that are necessary to stable democracies are created in only a few ways two of the most important of which involve distinctive elite transformations after elaborating this argument we examine the relationship between elites and regimes in western nation states since they began to consolidate after 1500 we show that our approach makes good sense of the western political record that it does much to clarify prospects for stable democracies in developing societies today and that it makes the increasingly elite centered analysis of democratic transitions and breakdowns more systematic

specific experience household structure and intergenerational transfers farm family land and labor arrangements in developing countries data from indian rural household survey was used to test th hypothesis that the coexistence in traditional rural societies of extended intergenerational families infrequent land sales and high reliance on family members as farm laborers is the result of the economic advantages which accrue from the knowledge gained by farming a particular ploy of land over a long period of time the land specific experience of elderly members of a intergenerational household who farmed the land as a child and then as an adult are expecially critical in adverse weather years most previous investigators attributed the existence of multigenerational households the use of family members rather than hired laboreds and the infrequency of land sales to deficiencies in the market i e labor market imperfections and an absence of capital insurance and asset markets in the present investigations these same characteristics are viewed as having an economic advantages a model for estimating the contribution of the experience of the elderly household members to agricultural profits was developed and applied to data from a 3 year panel study of 2900 indian rural farm households the data was collected between 1968 71 by the national council of applied economic research the survey collected information on farm profits farm inputs demographic characteristics and the effects of weather conditions on profits a major limitation of the study was a lack of information on the duration of land ownership age of household members was substituted as a proxy for duration of ownership findings were consistent withe the hypothesis in poor agricultural years gross returns for households which contained an elderly household member were greater than the gross returns for comparable households which did not contain an elderly member the economic advantages of specific knowledge embodied in the experienced elderly farmer were comparable to the economic advantages which accrued to households whose members were more educated the hypothesis cannot fully explain the existence of intergenerational families since there is a relatively large proportion of such families among nonfarm families in many countries including india findings suggest that intergenerational families may provide for more occupational diversity and thereby reduce income risks the specific experience hypothesis has policy implications if technological changes are introduced the value of specific experience may be lost and the frequency of intergenerational households may decline the hypothesis may also explain why farmers are reluctant to agree to land redistribution and consolidation schemes this reluctance may disappear after sufficient technological change has occurred

the informal sector and the political economy of development this paper takes an initial step in integrating insights from two sets of literature which have focused on central aspects of development with unfortunate independence it highlights politically valuable resources which are identified in the political economy literature and shows that the informal sector literature provides ample evidence that these resources in general are i scarcely available to informal entities ii poorly valued in their possession and iii more often collectively unexploited by them overall there seems to be an important though neglected bias in how the political system in less developed countries formulates crafts and implements policy

consumer demand and the life cycle allocation of household expenditures the purpose of this paper is to estimate the parameters of household preferences that determine the allocation of goods within the period and over the life cycle using micro data in doing so the authors are able to identify important effects of demographics labor market status and other household characteristics on the intertemporal allocation of expenditure they test the validity of the life cycle model using excess sensitivity tests and find that controlling for demographics and labor market status variables can largely explain the excess sensitivity of consumption to anticipated changes in income

property rights and consumption volatility evidence from a land reform in vietnam summary during vietnam s transition from a socialist to a market economy household s property rights over agricultural land were considerably strengthened through a land certification program this resulted in active formal credit and land markets either of which potentially affects consumption levels and volatility this article evaluates the program impact with respect to consumption outcomes in particular it identifies the channel of impact through which improved property rights affect consumption volatility we find that land certification increases consumption levels for rural households but also consumption volatility for a subgroup of households identified by an instrument we show that the certification program affects consumption outcomes of this subgroup through presumably more risky credit based agricultural investment at the intensive margin

household savings and residential mobility in informal settlements in bhopal india strategies to address the problem of informal settlements have focused on slum upgrading sites and services programmes and tenure security there has been less attention on what enables slum dwell

institutional characteristics and regime survival why are semi democracies less durable than autocracies and democracies previous studies report that semi democratic regimes are less durable than both democracies and autocracies still mixing democratic and autocratic characteristics need not destabilize regimes as three highly plausible alternative explanations of this correlation remain unaccounted for a semi democracies emerge under conditions of political instability and social turmoil b other regime characteristics explain duration and c extant democracy measures do not register all regime changes we elaborate on and test for these explanations but find strikingly robust evidence that semi democracies are inherently less durable than both democracies and autocracies semi democracies are particularly unstable political regimes should thus be considered a rare stylized fact of comparative politics the analysis yields several other interesting results for instance autocracies and semi democracies are equally likely to experience liberalizing regime changes more specifically and once accounting for differences in degree of democracy there is no robust evidence of differences in duration between military and single party regimes

household saving micro theories and micro facts in this survey we review the recent theoretical and empirical literature on household saving and consumption the discussion is structured around a list of motives for saving and how well the standard theory captures these motives we show that almost all of the motives for saving that have been suggested in the informal saving literature can be captured in the standard optimizing model particular attention is given to recent work on the precautionary motive and its implications for saving and consumption behavior we also discuss the behavioral or psychological approach that eschews the use of standard optimization techniques and focuses instead on direct consideration on saving we provide a section on facts who save and how much we then discuss informally the recent decline in the u s saving rate and whether the theory is of much use in understanding this and other changes in aggregate saving rates over time we do not find any convincing explanation for the change in saving rates we also discuss some analyses of saving behavior over the life cycle addressing such questions as whether households save enough for retirement and whether the consumption patterns of older households can be rationalized within a simple life cycle model we also review a great number of studies of the consumption euler equations based on our analysis of the studies cited we conclude that there is still mixed evidence that consumption is excessively sensitive to income we also examine in depth the recent empirical literature on the precautionary motive we conclude that although some households do seem to have a significant precautionary motive at some points in their life cycle this motive is not so strong empirically as some investigators suggest

regime cycles democracy autocracy and revolution in post soviet eurasia research on regime change has often wound up chasing events in the post soviet world because it has frequently assumed that regime change if not simple instability implies a trajectory toward a regime type endpoint like democracy or autocracy a supplemental approach recognizes that regime change can be cyclic not just progressive regressive or random in fact regime cycles are much of what we see in the postcommunist world where some states have oscillated from autocracy toward greater democracy then back toward more autocracy and with recent colored revolutions toward greater democracy again an institutional logic of elite collective action focusing on the effects of patronalpresidentialism is shown to be useful in understanding such cyclic dynamics explaining why revolutions occurred between 2003 and 2005 in ukraine georgia and kyrgyzstan but not in countries like russia azerbaijan and uzbekistan

preference for presidentialism postcommunist regime change in russia and the nis the recent wave of democratic transitions has stimulated scholarly interest in a previously undeveloped area of study comparative presidentialism comparative presidentialism seeks to define variant types of presidentialism that have emerged from transition processes to identify the conditions that shape institutional choice and to understand more clearly the causal relationship between institutional choice and democratic regime outcomes using the postcommunist transitions this paper contributes to the emerging comparative presidentialism literature by suggesting a revision to the argument that presidentialism leads to failed democratic transitions the paper focuses attention away from the institutional rules of the game and toward the actors who actually make the institutional choice three postcommunist cases distinguished by their different regime outcomes are compared russia uzbekistan and estonia

the political impact of economic crisis in latin america in the 1980s research on the political implications of economic conditions is separated into two relatively distinct bodies of literature i bridge the theoretical gap between them by examining the effects of economic crisis on electoral outcomes in latin america from 1982 to 1990 an analysis of 21 competitive elections indicates that crisis conditions undermine support for incumbents and provoke high levels of electoral volatility but without necessarily fostering the growth of political extremism or the exhaustion of elite consensus associated with the breakdown of democracy the results also suggest that the relationship between economic conditions and electoral instability is mediated by party system structure rather than democratic age paradoxically the findings buttress prior research on electoral outcomes in the comparatively stable and homogeneous organization for economic cooperation and development oecd nations while undercutting theoretical frameworks elaborated with specific reference to the breakdown and consolidation of third world democracy

testing theories of consumption behavior using information on aggregate shocks income seasonality and rainfall in rural india we develop an integrated framework for testing theories of consumption behavior by examining how agricultural households in rural india respond to anticipated and unanticipated seasonal income fluctuations using information on village level rainfall surprises we estimate idiosyncratic unanticipated income shocks by allowing weather risk to impact households differently depending on observable characteristics in applying our methodology to unique panel data on consumption debt and intrahousehold gift exchanges we address a number of shortcomings in previous tests of theories of consumption behavior yet we find no evidence against the hypothesis that households smooth idiosyncratic fluctuations in their income our approach also uncovers several interesting features of rural credit and insurance markets

some political aspects of unemployment abstract we study a number of mechanisms through which the economy can be stuck at a high unemployment equilibrium because a poor labour market is associated with support for a poor policy these mechanisms are consistent with the relative scarcity of measures that have been undertaken to cure unemployment the message of the paper is that curing the european unemployment problem is a difficult task because a lot of skill is required to avoid political pitfalls

consumption and income seasonality in thailand many households in developing countries rely on seasonal agriculture for their incomes this paper investigates whether household consumption expenditure tracks income across seasons using data from thailand i contrast the seasonal consumption patterns of households with different seasonal income patterns and estimate the responsiveness of seasonal consumption to seasonal income i find little evidence that consumption tracks income over the course of the year the findings suggest that observed seasonal consumption patterns are the result of seasonal variations in preferences or prices common to all households rather than an inability of households to use savings behavior to smooth consumption

political equilibrium income distribution and growth this paper analyzes the impact of income distribution on growth when investment in human capital is the source of growth and individuals vote over the degree of redistribution in the economy the model has three main features first very different patterns of income distribution are conducive to high growth at different levels of per capita income second growth is associated with an externality whereby investment in human capital by one group increases the productivity of other groups thus potentially enabling them to invest in human capital third the initial pattern of income distribution and the resulting political equilibrium are crucial in determining whether the transmission of this externality is promoted in which case growth is enhanced or prevented in which case growth is stopped using a non overlapping generations model with voting i derive several empirical implications in particular the model implies an inverted u relation between levels of inequality and levels of income in cross sections but not necessarily in time series a result that seems consistent with a number of empirical studies

incentives and the de soto effect this paper explores the consequences of improving property rights to facilitate the use of fixed assets as collateral popularly attributed to the influential policy advocate hernando de soto we use an equilibrium model of a credit market with moral hazard to characterize the theoretical effects and also develop a quantitative analysis using data from sri lanka we show that the effects are likely to be nonlinear and heterogeneous by wealth group they also depend on the extent of competition between lenders there can be significant increases in profits and reductions in interest rates when credit markets are competitive however since these are due to reductions in moral hazard that is increased effort the welfare gains tend to be modest when cost of effort is taken into account allowing for an extensive margin where borrowers gain access to the credit market can make these effects larger depending on the underlying wealth distribution

reform support in times of crisis the role of family ties we argue that an important determinant of voters support for economic reform is the strength of family ties while the crisis hypothesis predicts that crises facilitate reform we show in a political economy model that this relation can break down and even reverse when agents take into account the effect of reform on their family members applied to southern european countries with strong family ties the model rationalizes why the extremely high youth unemployment following the great recession has not led to more substantial labor market reforms in such countries austerity might block rather than foster additional structural reforms

saving and liquidity constraints this paper is concerned with the theory of saving when consumers are not permitted to borrow and with the ability of such a theory to account for some of the stylized facts of saving behavior the models presented in the paper seem to account for important aspects of reality that are not explained by traditional life cycle models copyright 1991 by the econometric society

two moment decision models and expected utility maximization two moment decision models are consistent with expected utility maximization only if the choice set or the agent s preferences are restricted this paper identifies a restriction which is sufficient to ensure this consistency and confirms that it holds in many economic models the implications for economic analysis are then derived two different approaches to representing an agent s preferences over strategies yielding random payoffs are in wide use under the mean standard deviation ms approach the agent is assumed to rank the alternatives according to the value of some function defined over the first two moments of the random payoff while the expected utility eu criterion assumes that the expected value of some utility function defined over payoffs is used instead the fact that there are these two competing approaches has generated a considerable literature some authors are concerned with the advantages and disadvantages of each while others deal with conditions under which the potentially different approaches would yield the same results or at least approximately so space does not

a heterogeneous agent model of credit linked index insurance and farm technology adoption abstract protection from downside risk is a determinant of technology uptake among subsistence agricultural households access to credit insurance and savings may stimulate technology adoption where new methods are riskier but higher yielding or require sunk costs in this paper we employ a dynamic stochastic heterogeneous agent model where farm households have access to contingent credit and make savings technology and loan repayment choices our approach is novel as insurance is modeled as a meso level product where the bank is indemnified before any payouts are distributed to borrowers thus it accounts for both supply and demand side concerns showing a flow of effects when index insurance contracts are sold to risk aggregators for whom basis risk is lower results show letting the lender lay first claim on indemnities lowers default which can decrease interest rates and expand credit access insurance and savings may also spur technology uptake

shadow economies size causes and consequences using various methods the size of the shadow economy in 76 developing transition and oecd countries is estimated average size varies from 12 percent of gdp for oecd countries to 23 percent for transition countries and 39 percent for developing countries increasing taxation and social security contributions combined with rising state regulations are driving forces for the increase of the shadow economy especially in oecd countries according to some findings corruption has a positive impact on the size of the shadow economy and a growing shadow economy has a negative effect on official gdp growth

review of de soto s the mystery of capital in the mystery of capital hernando de soto promotes his explanation of why formal capital markets function poorly in developing countries de soto argues that much of the population of developing countries lacks access to credit not because they lack assets but because ownership of their property is secured informally which prevents the use of property as collateral the inability to convert assets into capital keeps the developing world from benefiting from capitalism

is consumption growth consistent with intertemporal optimization evidence from the consumer expenditure survey in this paper we show that some of the predictions of models of consumer intertemporal optimization are in line with the patterns of nondurable expenditure observed in u s household level data we propose a flexible specification of preferences that allows multiple commodities and yields empirically tractable equations we estimate preference parameters using the only u s micro data set with complete consumption information we show that previous rejections can be explained by the simplifying assumptions made in previous studies we also show that results obtained using good consumption or aggregate data can be misleading

untitled a study of formal and informal property rights in urban ecuador we explore the substitutability of formal and informal property rights using new survey data from ecuador where households have both formal and informal claims to urban residential property we develop a model of property transactions that distinguishes between transferable and non transferable claims and show how this distinction affects the interpretation of hedonic price regressions the unconditional effect of title is to raise properties value by 23 5 however we also find that informal property rights can substitute effectively for formal property rights and suggest that titling programmes should be targeted at young disorganised communities if they are to benefit the recipients

the unbanked evidence from indonesia to analyze the prospects for expanding financial access to the poor bank professionals assessed 1 438 households in six provinces in indonesia to judge their creditworthiness about 40 percent of poor households were judged creditworthy according to the criteria of indonesia s largest microfinance bank but fewer than 10 percent had recently borrowed from a micro bank or formal lender possessing collateral appeared as a minor determinant of creditworthiness in keeping with microfinance innovations although these households were judged able to service loans reliably most desired small loans calculations show that the bank given its current fee structure and banking practices will lose money when lending at the scales desired so while innovations have helped to extend financial access it remains difficult to lend in small amounts and cover costs

growth and saving among individuals and households the lifecycle theory of saving and consumption predicts that changes in an economy s rate of economic growth will affect its aggregate saving rate by changing the lifetime resources of younger people relative to older people however studies that track the saving behavior of cohorts of household heads over time as they age have yielded estimates of age saving profiles that are too flat for growth to have much effect on the aggregate saving rate one problem with the cohort approach is that multigenerational households are common in many counties and the age saving profiles of households may be quite different from the age saving profiles of individuals that make up households in this paper we propose a method for estimating individual age saving profiles using household data this method is applied to data from taiwan and thailand we find that the individual method yields results that are more favorable to the lifecycle model these results imply that changes in the rate of economic growth may in som

do farmers choose to be inefficient evidence from bicol abstract farming households that differ in their ability or willingness to take on risks are likely to allocate resources and effort among income producing activities differently with consequences for productivity in this paper we measure voluntary and involuntary departures from efficiency for rice producing households in the bicol region of the philippines we take advantage of a panel of observations on households from 1978 1983 and 1994 available monthly weather data and survey information on planting times allows us to create household specific measures of weather shocks which we use in our analysis we find evidence that diversification and input choices do affect efficiency outcomes among farmers although these effects are not dominant accumulated wealth past decisions to invest favorable market conditions and propitious weather are also important determinants of efficiency outcomes among bicol rice farmers our findings suggest that the costs of incomplete formal and informal insurance markets are higher for poorer farmers

savings at the periphery of markets evidence from forager farmers in the bolivian amazon abstractwe used survey and ethnographic data to study savings in a highly autarkic society of native amazonians in bolivia tsimane we equated savings with the amount of maize and rice in storage area planted with plantains and manioc and number of edible domesticated animals owned by a household or an adult we found no large inter annual change in savings possibly due to low income impulsivity and a bundle of institutions and norms such as borrowing theft and reciprocity norms the bundle attenuates the need for household formal savings at the periphery of markets

the productivity impacts of formal and informal land rights evidence from madagascar this paper studies the relationship between land rights and agricultural productivity whereas previous studies used proxies for soil quality and instrumental variables to control for the endogeneity of land titles the data used here include precise soil quality measurements which in principle allow controlling for the unobserved heterogeneity between plots empirical results suggest that formal land rights i e land titles have no impact on productivity but that informal land rights i e landowners subjective perceptions of what they can and cannot do with their plots have heterogeneous impacts on productivity

entitled to work urban property rights and labor supply in peru this brief summarizes the results of a gender impact evaluation study entitled entitled to work urban property rights and labor supply in peru new legal rights were issued in 1996 project teams providing titling service through 2003 in peru the study observed that between 1996 and 2003 the peruvian government issued property titles to over 1 2 million urban households the largest titling program targeted at urban squatters in the developing world this paper examines the labor market effects of increases in tenure security resulting from the program pre program squatters in program neighborhoods were significantly more likely to report improved tenure security by 60 percent similarly program participants were 18 8 percentage points less likely to report a high likelihood of eviction or invasion and 18 8 percentage points more likely to report that their dwelling was currently very secure from eviction or invasion the likelihood of working inside the home significantly falls by 11 6 percentage points for the average squatter family with two program periods

property rights for the poor effects of land titling secure property rights are considered a key determinant of economic development the evaluation of the causal effects of property rights however is a difficult task as their allocation is typically endogenous to overcome this identification problem we exploit a natural experiment in the allocation of land titles in 1981 squatters occupied a piece of land in a poor suburban area of buenos aires in 1984 a law was passed expropriating the former owners land to entitle the occupants some original owners accepted the government compensation while others disputed the compensation payment in the slow argentine courts these different decisions by the former owners generated an exogenous allocation of property rights across squatters using data from two surveys performed in 2003 and 2007 we find that entitled families substantially increased housing investment reduced household size and enhanced the education of their children relative to the control group these effects however did not take place through improvements in access to credit our results suggest that land titling can be an important tool for poverty reduction albeit not through the shortcut of credit access but through the slow channel of increased physical and human capital investment which should help to reduce poverty in future generations

the demand for tenure security in developing countries abstract we use survey data for manila the philippines to estimate hedonic functions for formal and squatter housing values we show that on average a rented squatter unit in manila would rent for 15 percent more if it were a formal sector unit an owned squatter unit would sell for 25 percent more if it were a formal sector unit these percentages are interpreted as eviction risk discount for squatter dwellings we conclude that assistance projects that provide secure tenure over a wide area will bestow comparatively greater benefits on lower income households and to those in newer less established settlements since the risks that they bear initially are greater

using weather variability to estimate the response of savings to transitory income in thailand this paper measures the extent to which farmers are able to use savings and dissavings to smooth consumption in response to unexpected shocks to income time series information on regional rainfall is used to construct estimates of transitory income due to rainfall shocks the relationship between these measures of transitory income and savings indicates that farm households save a significantly higher fraction of transitory income than nontransitory income jel d91 016 the incomes of farm households in developing countries are notorious for being both low and uncertain policies that increase the incomes of farmers may well be different

smoothing consumption by smoothing income hours of work responses to idiosyncratic agricultural shocks in rural india while research has demonstrated that farm households in developing economies are able to protect consumption from idiosyncratic crop shocks little evidence shows how this is achieved this paper examines the extent to which labor markets allow households to shift labor from farm to off farm employment and the extent to which such a shift explains the observed lack of correlation between consumption and idiosyncratic crop shocks the empirical analysis uses a novel measure of the idiosyncratic crop income shock which utilizes information on start of season cropping choices to more accurately estimate household expectations of weather

unemployment and labor market reform a contract theoretic approach why do many democracies fail to reform their labor market institutions to answer this question we study the feasibility of reforms that include compensation to insiders for the removal of labor market regulations under asymmetric information a reformer who wants to buy the approval of voters has to pay them an informational rent in addition to the pure costs of compensation that would arise under symmetric information in this setting unemployment may be constrained pareto efficient labor market reforms may fail politically because none of the reform packages proposed wins the approval of a majority of voters we also discuss the role of capital taxation in a reform program jel classification d70 e61 j68

savings behaviour in low income countries the empirical literature on savings in low income countries has exploited some remarkable data sets to shed new light on savings behaviour in the poor agricultural households that make up the majority of the population in such countries a number of conclusions have emerged i the degree of consumption smoothing over seasons within the year and across years in response to very large income fluctuations is higher than was supposed ii the lack of complete insurance and credit markets however is manifested in asset stocks and asset compositions among farmers especially small farmers that are inefficient iii the combination of low and volatile incomes is an important cause of inefficiency and income inequality iv the proximity of formal financial institutions increases financial savings and crowds out informal insurance arrangements thus in principle better facilitating financial intermediation and iv simple life cycle models of savings do not appear to explain long term savings in low income settings copyright 2001 oxford university press

the fourth wave of democracy and dictatorship noncooperative transitions in the postcommunist world the transition from communism in europe and the former soviet union has only sometimes produced a transition to democracy since the crumbling of the berlin wall in 1989 and the collapse of the soviet union in 1991 most of the twenty eight new states have abandoned communism but only nine of these have entered the ranks of liberal democracies the remaining majority of new postcommunist states are various shades of dictatorships or unconsolidated transitional regimes this article seeks to explain why some states abandoned communism for democracy while others turned to authoritarian rule in endorsing actorcentric approaches that have dominated analyses of the third wave of democratization this argument nonetheless offers an alternative set of causal paths from ancien regime to new regime that can account for both democracy and dictatorship as outcomes situations of unequal distributions of power produced the quickest and most stable transitions from communist rule in countries with asymmetrical balances of power the regime to emerge depends almost entirely on the ideological orientation of the most powerful in countries where democrats enjoyed a decisive power advantage democracy emerged conversely in countries in which dictators maintained a decisive power advantage dictatorship emerged in between these two extremes were countries in which the distribution of power between the old regime and its challengers was relatively equal rather than producing stalemate compromise and parted transitions to democracy however such situations in the postcommunist world resulted in protracted confrontation between relatively balanced powers the regimes that emerged from these modes of transitions are not the most successful democracies but rather are unconsolidated unstable partial democracies

risk financial markets and human capital in a developing country this paper explores the link between financial market incompleteness and human capital accumulation we examine how child school attendance responds to seasonal fluctuations in the income of agrarian households using panel data from rural india to pinpoint market imperfections we study responses to aggregate and idiosyncratic as well as to anticipated and unanticipated income shocks our main finding is that seasonal fluctuations in school attendance are a form of self insurance but one which does not result in a substantial loss of human capital on average

on the timing of marriage cattle and weather shocks abstractin this paper we focus on the timing of marriage of women whose marriages are associated with bride wealth payments these payments concern transfers from the family of the groom to the bride s family unmarried daughters could therefore be considered part of the asset portfolio of the household that at times of need can be cashed we investigate both theoretically and empirically to what extent the timing of marriage of a daughter is affected by the economic conditions of the household from which she originates we distinguish household specific wealth levels and two types of shocks correlated weather shocks and idiosyncratic wealth shocks we estimate a duration model using a unique panel survey of zimbabwean smallholder farmers the estimation results support the hypothesis that the timing of marriage is affected by household characteristics girls from households that experienced a negative idiosyncratic wealth shock are more likely to marry

the size of the informal sector in peru a critical comment on hernando de soto s el otro sendero abstract in el otro sendero hernando de soto presented four statistics concerning i the number of workers and ii the number of hours worked in the informal sector in peru in 1984 iii total informal gdp from 1951 to 1984 and iv the growth of the informal sector from 1985 to 2000 these statistics are being quoted internationally by for example the world bank and the economist of london in this paper we demonstrate that there are apparent inconsistencies between i and ii and that iii and iv are based on the application of inappropriate models that are econometrically suspect

consumption smoothing migration and marriage evidence from rural india a significant proportion of migration in low income countries particularly in rural areas is composed of moves by women for the purpose of marriage we seek to explain these mobility patterns by examining marital arrangements among indian households in particular we hypothesize that the marriage of daughters to locationally distant dispersed yet kinship related households is a manifestation of implicit interhousehold contractual arrangements aimed at mitigating income risks and facilitating consumption smoothing in an environment characterized by information costs and spatially covariant risks analysis of longitudinal south indian village data lends support to the hypothesis marriage cum migration contributes significantly to a reduction in the variability of household food consumption farm households afflicted with more variable profits tend to engage in longer distance marriage cum migration the hypothesized and observed marriage cum migration patterns are in dissonance with standard models of marriage or migration that are concerned primarily with search costs and static income gains

natural natural experiments in economics the recent literature exploiting natural events as natural experiment instruments is reviewed to assess to what extent it has advanced empirical knowledge a weakness of the studies that adopt this approach is that the necessary set of behavioral market and technological assumptions made by the authors in justifying their interpretations of the estimates is often absent the methodology and findings from twenty studies are summarized and simple economic models are used to elucidate the implicit assumptions made by the authors and to demonstrate the sensitivity of the interpretations of the findings to the relaxation of some of these assumptions

tenure security and urban squatting while recent studies have shown that up to 35 of the total urban population of the third world live in squatter settlements there is a dearth of economic analysis on the phenomenon of squatting this paper attempts to fill this gap the equilibrium model argues that the difference in unit housing prices between the non squatting formal sector of a city and its squatting informal sector reflects the premium associated with a secure tenure status the empirical portion of this paper uses hedonic price techniques to derive the average premium on tenure security in a medium sized philippine city davao results show that formal sector unit dwelling prices are about 18 renters to 58 owners more than in the informal sector these equilibrium price differentials were found to be greater for lower income groups larger household sizes and households with older heads for renters and younger heads for

consumption over the life cycle and over the business cycle the main aim of this paper is to assess the validity of the life cycle model of consumption in particular we address an issue that has recently received much attention especially in the macroeconomic literature that of excess sensitivity of consumption growth to income growth we do this using a time series of cross sections and a novel and flexible parameterization of preferences the former allows us to address aggregation issues directly while with the latter we can allow both the discount factor and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution eis to be affected by various observable variables and lifetime wealth the main findings can be summarized as follows i the excess sensitivity of consumption growth to labor income disappears when we control for demographic variables this is true both at life cycle and business cycle frequencies ii estimation of a flexible specification of preferences indicates that the elasticity of intertemporal substitution is a function of several variables including the level of consumption the eis increases with the level of consumption as expected iii the variables that change the eis are also important in explaining why we observe excess sensitivity over the business cycle iv we are able to reconcile our results with those reported both in the macro and micro literature v in our specification the elasticity of intertemporal substitution is not very well determined this result however should be taken with care as we have not made an effort to construct a preferred specification which would probably include additional controls for labor supply behavior the evidence presented shows that the life cycle model cannot be easily dismissed indeed we believe that the model does a good job at representing consumption behavior both over the life cycle and over the business cycle