adapting prices or quantities in the presence of adjustment costs it is often hypothesized that costs of adjusting both price and quantities may have important implications for the macroeconomic adjustment process not least to nominal shocks we analyse this in an explicit intertemporal general equilibrium model considering the empirically relevant case of fixed costs of adjusting prices and fixed and variable costs of adjusting quantities we find that the presence of both price and quantity adjustment costs changes the response to shocks significantly it is an implication that small shocks do not support the menu cost case but rather both fixed prices and quantities rationing a numerical analysis based on available evidence on adjustment costs is used to illustrate the likelihood that the various adjustment patterns actually arise

managing technological development lessons from the newly industrializing countries this survey looks at the technological development of the newly industrializing countries to draw some important lessons for firms and governments in other developing countries first inventing products and processes is not at the center of the technological development needed for successful industrialization it is at the fringe what is at the center is acquiring the capabilities needed for efficient production and investment second some countries have overemphasized the drive for technological self sufficiency and paid a high price in poor productivity what makes the best economic sense is to combine foreign and local technological elements and to do this in a way that progressively develops local capabilities in areas where they can be more efficient third the acquisition of technological capability does not come merely from experience though experience is important fourth the economic environment through its influence on the technological efforts of firms is very important in determining the productivity of a country s resources

inflation costly price and quantity adjustments and time spent in the keynesian regime abstract this paper considers a menu cost firm under inflation due to costly quantity adjustments the firm is sometimes in a keynesian regime where sales are demand determined with a positive real interest rate the proportion of time in the keynesian regime is less than the inverse of the absolute value of the average elasticity of demand in that regime

adjustment costs inventories and output this paper analyzes the optimal adjustment strategy of an inventory holding firm facing price and quantity adjustment costs in an inflationary environment the model nests both the original menu cost model that allows production to be costlessly adjusted and the later model that includes price and quantity adjustment costs but rules out inventory holdings it is shown that the firm s optimal adjustment strategy may involve stockouts at low inflation rates output is inversely related to the inflation rate and the length of time demand is satisfied increases with the demand elasticity but decreases with the storage cost and the real interest rate

technological capabilities and industrialization abstract this paper reviews the implications for industrial strategy of recent research on technological capabilities at the firm and national levels after exploring the nature and determinants of microlevel technological development a simple framework for explaining the growth of national capabilities is set out based on the interplay of incentives capabilities and institutions each may suffer market failure and so require corrective intervention the experience of some industrializing countries is described to assess the validity of this framework it is concluded that interventions carefully and selectively applied are necessary for industrial success

technological regimes catching up and leapfrogging findings from the korean industries abstract this paper examines the experiences of selected industries in korea to identify the stylized facts in the process of technological capability building and thereby to sort out the conditions for the catching up to occur to explain the process we have built a model of technological and market catching up a special attention has been given to the question of whether there has been a case of leapfrogging in any industry in korea and if so what are the conditions for its incidence in our framework we first measure the degree of catching up in terms of market shares in the world then we focus on catching up in technological capabilities in explaining the different record and prospects of korean industries in market catching up in the model technological capability is determined as a function of both technological effort and the existing knowledge base as determinants of technological effort we look at the technological regimes of the industries such as cumulativeness of technical advances fluidity predictability of technological trajectory and the properties of knowledge base using this model we explain the different technological evolution of the selected industries in korea including the d ram automobile mobile phone consumer electronics personal computer and machine tool industries we find three different patterns of catching ups path creating catching up cdma mobile phone path skipping catching up d ram and automobile and path following catching up consumer electronics personal computers and machine tools we interpret the first two case of catching up as leapfrogging unlike the argument by perez and soete perez c soete l 1988 catching up in technology entry barriers and windows of opportunity in dosi et al eds technical change and economic theory pinter publishers london we find that important r d projects except automobiles where only private r d was involved involved both private and public capacities and that entry was not driven by endogenous generation of knowledge and skills but by collaboration with foreign companies

the cyclical behavior of the price cost markup countercyclical markups constitute the key transmission mechanism for monetary and other demand shocks in new keynesian models this paper tests the foundation of those models by studying the cyclical properties of the markup of price over marginal cost the first part of the paper studies markups in the aggregate economy and the manufacturing sector we use bils s 1987 insights for converting average cost to marginal cost but do so with richer data we find that all measures of markups are either procyclical or acyclical moreover we show that monetary shocks lead markups to fall with output the second part of the paper merges input output information on shipments to the government with detailed industry data to study the effect of demand changes on industry level markups industry level markups are found to be acyclical in response to demand changes

market stimulating technology policies in developing countries a framework with examples from east asia abstract this paper proposes an analytical framework for technology development based upon evolutionary approaches and drawing upon asian development strategies the analysis rests on the concept of market stimulating technology policies comprising a broad array of policies to promote industrial and technological development some market and others government determined these policies may be functional horizontal or vertical and can be analyzed at three levels national strategic and specific the paper suggests that strategic choices are involved at all stages that cannot be resolved entirely by recourse to free markets

output fluctuations at the plant level this paper examines the short run dynamics of manufacturing costs by detailing how plants in the u s automobile industry change output weekly data show a variety of margins on which firms adjust production these margins which are distinct from the usual factor demand choices differ in their lumpiness their adjustment costs and their variable costs the existence of these margins explains several empirical puzzles of output fluctuations using a theory of the short run dynamic cost function we are able to infer some of the characteristics of the underlying cost function from the dynamic behavior of the different margins

did lower unionization in the united states result in more flexible industries do unions really impede manufacturers output flexibility if so in what ways the authors propose a methodology for quantifying george stigler s concept of output flexibility and for decomposing the effects of unionization on average cost differences between union and non union plants using a recently compiled data set on u s three digit manufacturing industries from 1973 to 1996 they adapt this methodology to simulate the effects of unionization on flexibility and average costs for average size plants simulation results indicate that higher unionization was associated with higher average costs and lower flexibility than low unionization higher average costs appear to have been primarily due to higher fixed costs such as higher benefits

durable goods oligopoly with secondary markets the case of automobiles we study the effects of durability and secondary markets on equilibrium firm behavior in the car market we construct a dynamic oligopoly model of a differentiated product market to incorporate the equilibrium production dynamics that arise from the durability of the goods and their active trade in secondary markets we derive an econometric model and estimate its parameters using data from the automobile industry over a 20 year period our estimates are used to provide a measure of the competitive importance of the secondary market

the production impact of cash for clunkers implications for stabilization policy during july and august of 2009 americans purchased nearly 700 000 new automobiles or light trucks under the government s cash for clunkers program officially the car allowance rebate system or cars under the terms of the purchase qualified buyers traded in their old vehicles to receive a rebate on the price of a new vehicle the amount of the rebate either 3 500 or 4 500 depended on both the model that was traded in and the model that was acquired the direct cost to taxpayers of subsidizing these purchases was roughly 2 8 billion the program had two primary goals to reduce energy consumption and pollution by inducing consumers to replace their old gas guzzlers with newer fuel efficient models and to serve as a stimulus for the troubled automobile industry and the u s economy as a whole in this article we take a close look at the second objective exploring how the cars program affected sales and more important production in the automobile industry 1 drawing on our findings we then propose an answer to the more difficult question of the program s impact on u s gross domestic product gdp 2 in line with other recent studies our analysis shows that the cars program had only a transitory cumulative effect on sales we estimate an initial impact of about 450 000 additional automobile sales but these were essentially shifted from the periods before and especially after the program we calculate that by january 2010 the cumulative effect of the cars program on auto sales was essentially zero 3 more important for our purposes however is the program s effect on automobile production while most studies of cars have focused on sales we argue that the program s success as a stimulus to the economy hinges on its impact on production production increases are more likely to translate into higher gdp and employment gdp being fundamentally a measure of production sales clearly rose at the outset but given that the industry can simply let inventory stocks absorb the increase in sales higher sales alone do not imply higher gdp or employment 4 overall we find that the program had a very modest and short lived effect on production production was about 200 000 units higher during the program in comparison to the 450 000 increase in sales sales from september 2009 to january 2010 were correspondingly lower than they would have been in the absence of cars which allowed producers to have lower production while still replenishing their inventory stocks thus on a quarterly basis we estimate that the cars program shifted production by around 100 000 units from 2009q4 and 2010q1 to 2009q3 these calculations suggest that the program had a negligible direct effect on gdp shifting less than roughly 2 billion or less than one tenth of 1 of gdp into 2009q3 from the subsequent two quarters this contrasts starkly with a study released by the department of transportation dot in the immediate aftermath of the program which concluded that cars had given a substantial boost to both gdp and employment in the final section of the article we discuss why our conclusions differ from those of the dot study our findings raise broader questions beyond just this particular program about the efficacy of efforts to stimulate short term spending it is clearly a mistake to gauge their impact by just looking at the spending they induce without looking at the supply side it is reasonable to expect that producers will use other margins than production and employment to respond to temporary movements in sales so the only question is quantitative how large is the gap between the sales and production impact we find it to be large in the case of cash for clunkers in what follows we will lay out the economics behind our analysis by examining how rebates and other transitory price changes affect consumer purchases and manufacturers inventory decisions

differences between learning processes in small tigers and large dragons learning processes of two color tv ctv firms within china abstract the main purpose of this paper is to describe the firm level learning processes by indigenous firms in china identify the differences between learning processes in small tigers and large dragons such as china this paper first sketches the history of the china s color tv ctv industry in which learning processes take place to put the companies case studies into context then this paper examines closely the actual experience of two major chinese firms in their practice of technological learning finally this paper finds that the most significant difference between learning processes in chinese firms and these four other tigers firms is that firms from four other tigers usually rely almost exclusively on export markets but chinese firms are mostly local market focused a novel contribution of this paper is its analysis of the issue the two chinese firms have followed not an export growth path but an local market focused path which proved to be much less successful in countries such as india latin america africa and former soviet union the success of this process in china hinges on the five critical factors 1 a number of multinational firms are increasing their presence in china 2 there is vibrant competition among domestic firms 3 the huge domestic market is a key incentive for local firms to invest in technological learning 4 chinese central government takes a phased approach to liberalization of the domestic market 5 there have a number of risk taking entrepreneurs with strategic version who make investment decisions on learning these factors should not be easily available to other developing countries in this regard china s experience has limited application to other developing countries

the labour input response to permanent changes in output an errors in variables analysis based on panel data using panel data for norwegian manufacturing we revisit the increasing returns to scale puzzle for labour inputs we consider the response of the input of white collar workers blue collar workers and blue collar worker hours to permanent changes in output permanent and temporary changes in output are treated as latent variables we compare ols iv and gmm estimates of the response elasticities and conclude that the distinction between permanent and temporary changes is essential our gmm estimates suggest that the increasing returns to scale puzzle remains for all measures of the labour input also when we consider their response to permanent changes in output for materials the output response indicates approximately constant returns to scale this suggests non homotheticity of the production technology jel classification c23 j23

unraveling the multiple margins of rent generation from individual transferable quotas individual transferable quotas itqs induce changes along both the extensive margin via consolidation of quota among fewer vessels and the intensive margin as harvesters adjust their behavior to itq incentives we use itq introduction in the bering sea crab fishery to decompose the sources of rent generation across both margins we embed an empirically calibrated structural model of the harvesting process into a sector level model allowing us to experimentally unravel the itq treatment we show that the magnitude and source of rent generation under itqs critically depends on the manner and degree of rent dissipation before itqs are implemented

capital utilization economic growth and convergence abstract optimal decisions by economic agents regarding the utilization of capital lead to empirically plausible speeds of convergence in one sector models of economic growth the relationship between depreciation and capital utilization plays a crucial role in slowing down convergence to the steady state cross country differences in the extent to which the capital utilization decision is internalized along the transition path may lead to differences in convergence rates even for countries with similar initial and terminal conditions finally by assuming a constant depreciation rate and full capital utilization standard growth models may be overstating the magnitude of the steady state equilibrium

inventories and the automobile market this article studies the within model year pricing production and inventory management of new automobiles using new monthly data on u s transaction prices we document that for the typical vehicle prices fall over the model year at a 9 0 annual rate concurrently both sales and inventories are hump shaped to explain these time series we formulate an industry model for new automobiles in which inventory and pricing decisions are made simultaneously the model predicts that automakers build to stock inventory management policy substantially influences the time series of prices and sales accounting for four tenths of the price decline observed over the model year

new evidence on whether unemployment and out of the labor force are distinct states this paper focuses on the question of whether people who are out of the labor force olf should be included in unemployment measures if people who are olf can obtain jobs as often as the people who are unemployed then there is no real distinction between the two states of nonemployment surprisingly there has been very little effort surrounding this issue in the past clark and summers 1982 conclude that for teenagers unemployment and olf are not distinct states while flinn and heckman 1982a find the opposite for white male high school graduates the methodology adopted in this paper enables one to use incomplete transition data on unemployment and olf and to obtain estimates of the full transition matrix between three labor force states that are not possible with standard methods new evidence for high school graduates is presented by gender and it is found that while for young women the two states are distinct for young men they are not

technology policy for industrialization an integrative framework and korea s experience abstract first this article reviews three policy perspectives 1 the market mechanism perspective includes the demand for and supply of technology and the linkage between the two 2 the technology flow perspective consists of technology transfer diffusion and r d 3 the dynamic perspective refers to technological trajectory it then integrates these three perspectives to develop a new three dimensional framework that may be useful to analyze technology policy for industrialization second this article applies the framework to analyze korea s technology policy as a case in point conclusions are 1 technology policies on foreign technology transfer technology diffusion and r d should change over time in response to changing external environment 2 technology policies become effective only when three major components policies to promote the demand side of technology policies to promote the supply side of technology and policies to provide effective links between demand and supply sides are well balanced finally it discusses implications for other developing countries

interest rates and the market for new light vehicles we study the impact of interest rates changes on both the demand for and supply of new light vehicles in an environment where consumers and manufacturers face their own interest rates an increase in the consumers interest rate raises their cost of financing and thus lowers the demand for new vehicles an increase in the manufacturers interest rate raises their cost of holding inventories both channels have equilibrium effects that are amplified and propagated over time through inventories which serve as a way to both smooth production and facilitate greater sales at a given price through the estimation of a dynamic stochastic market equilibrium model we find evidence of both channels at work and of the important role played by inventories a temporary 100 basis point increase in both interest rates causes vehicle production to fall 12 percent and sales to fall 3 25 percent at an annual rate in the short run

are consumers myopic evidence from new and used car purchases abstract we investigate whether car buyers are myopic about future fuel costs we estimate the effect of gasoline prices on short run equilibrium prices of cars of different fuel economies we then compare the implied changes in willingness to pay to the associated changes in expected future gasoline costs for cars of different fuel economies in order to calculate implicit discount rates using different assumptions about annual mileage survival rates and demand elasticities we calculate a range of implicit discount rates similar to the range of interest rates paid by car buyers who borrow we interpret this as showing little evidence of consumer myopia jel d12 h25 l11 l62 l71 l81

why not greater catch up by chinese firms the impact of ipr corporate governance and technology intensity on late comer strategies abstract how can late comer firms lcfs in developing economies manage their development of technological capability and within it their ip strategically in order to become fully competitive internationally under what conditions external and internal are they likely to succeed this paper develops a theoretical framework for understanding lcfs technology strategy and predicting its outcome then applies it to the cases of three chinese firms in sectors at different levels of technology intensity this yields insights as to its limitations and further development these help explain mainland china s very limited catch up in high technology sectors and to a lesser extent in medium high technology we show how our findings can be reconciled with the much greater success of korean firms some 20 years earlier if the effect of corporate governance differences is recognised

non convex costs and capital utilization a study of production scheduling at automobile assembly plants i study detailed data from eleven automobile assembly plants these data display considerable cross plant heterogeneity in production scheduling to explain the observed heterogeneity i solve a dynamic programming model when desired production is below the plant s minimum e cient scale non convexities induce production bunching the plant uses less than full capital utilization on average and production is more volatile than sales when desired production is above the plant s minimum e cient scale the plant operates in a convex region of the cost curve in this case it uses high levels of capital utilization and production is less volatile than sales 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved jel classixcation e23 d21 l23

plant level nonconvex output adjustment and aggregate fluctuations in most manufacturing industries plant level output is adjusted along three margins of capacity utilization shiftwork weekend work and closing temporarily down due to the discrete and lumpy nature of these margins only a fraction of plants adjust output in response to shocks in a business cycle model calibrated to establishment level observations these nonconvexities make aggregate output less volatile than when plants can adjust smoothly further the mass of adjusting plants is larger in downturns than in upturns leading to counter cyclical volatility of aggregate output and government policy being slightly more effective in recessions than in expansions

overcoming the liability of newness entrepreneurial action and the emergence of china s private solar photovoltaic firms abstract this study explores how entrepreneurs introducing a new organizational form can build legitimacy and capabilities to overcome significant liabilities of newness and how their actions and the institutional structure co evolve our multiple case study design enabled us to explicate specific actions that entrepreneurs founding china s private solar photovoltaic pv firms took as they built organizational capabilities and established their legitimacy vis a vis resource holders and global markets we identified three legitimacy based strategies they used leveraging their existing sources of legitimacy aligning their actions with established institutional rules and norms and enacting the institutional environment to change perceptions of what is legitimate we also found a stark contrast between the early and late entrants the early entrants had to build an effective organizational capability and establish their own firm s legitimacy as well as establish the legitimacy of the private chinese solar pv firm as a viable organizational form both domestically and abroad later entrants could leverage the legitimacy established by the early entrants enabling them to more easily and quickly access external resources and become competitive our findings also suggest an important role for government in promoting and supporting entrepreneurship that complements well established approaches namely through its policies and actions the government can create an environment in which experimentation and exploration is legitimate thereby making it easier for entrepreneurs new ventures and new organizational forms to access critical resources and realize their potential

financing constraints and inventories abstract this paper investigates the impact of financing constraints on firms inventory and cash management in particular it examines the extent to which the presence of such constraints may account for certain empirical regularities these include e g the excess variance of production vis a vis that of sales as well as the counter cyclicality and persistence of the inventory sales ratio we model the intertemporal decision making on production cash retention and dividends of a firm that is exposed to stochastic demand shocks in every period and faces constrained access to external sources of finance it is found that the presence of financing constraints can explain the excess variance of production in a model which otherwise would not deliver this result moreover as long as demand is positively serially correlated they also contribute to the counter cyclicality and persistence of the inventory sales ratio the paper suggests that financing constraints should not be discarded as a factor driving the cyclical behaviour of inventories