trade taxes and debt repayment in sri lanka the purpose of this article is to estimate the cost of taxing the export import or domestic sectors of sri lanka for the purpose of reducing the national debt a simple gnp model is used to estimate the elasticities that characterise the three aggregate sectors and are used to simulate the effects of taxing for debt servicing the results show that a tax on the import sector generates the largest net savings on trade balance and that the savings from not importing can be substantial however for the period 1977 87 a 10 0 per cent tax on the import sector caused a decline in the growth of the economy by 3 0 per cent the burden of the tax falls heavily on the domestic sector in terms of lost production and increased unemployment

a race to liberalization diffusion of economic policy reform among oecd economies most oecd economies witnessed a liberalization of economic policies over the past thirty years the present paper examines to what extent this development is caused by domestic political and economic factors on the one hand and international policy diffusion via competitive interaction of governments on the other employing a comprehensive index of economic reform it can be shown that policy diffusion is a driving factor for economic liberalization especially in the fields of regulatory monetary and trade policies we find significant interdependence of policy choices as suggested by theories of policy diffusion

public sector efficiency evidence for new eu member states and emerging markets in this article we analyse public sector efficiency in the new member states of the eu compared to that in emerging markets after a conceptual discussion of expenditure efficiency measurement we compute efficiency scores and rankings by applying a range of measurement techniques the study finds that expenditure efficiency across new eu member states is rather diverse especially as compared to the group of top performing emerging markets in asia econometric analysis shows that higher income civil service competence and education levels as well as the security of property rights seem to facilitate the prevention of inefficiencies in the public sector

the supply and demand for exports in israel abstract using annual data for israel over the period 1960 1989 we estimate an econometric model for the supply and demand for exports a novel feature is that domestic absorption crowds out export supply exports are imperfect substitutes in world markets for tradeables produced abroad the price elasticity of demand is about 1 3 while the price elasticity of supply is about 1 5 the model is simulated to calculate the effects of policy instruments and other exogenous variables on exports and export prices

privatization and globalization an empirical analysis abstract this paper examines the link between globalization measured by foreign direct investment fdi and foreign portfolio investment fpi and privatization of state owned enterprises in a multi country sample that focuses on developing countries we hypothesize that privatization has an effect on fdi fpi as the process of fostering private sector participation is often accompanied by liberalization reforms and by allocations of substantial shares of newly privatized firms to foreign investors similarly we expect fdi fpi to foster privatization efforts as new capital inflows technology and managerial skills that accompany fdi fpi make the environment more prone to competition providing governments with incentives to privatize inefficient firms that need to be turned around this relation is assessed in two ways first in a dynamic panel using a generalized method of moments approach and second through panel causality tests we find a bi directional positive relation between privatization proceeds and globalization particularly in the case of fdi

explaining differences in public sector efficiency evidence from russia s regions summary using the case of russia s regions this paper extends the literature on public sector efficiency in three directions an attempt to better understand differences in public sector efficiency through the study of subnational governments in one country the first examination of public sector efficiency of subnational governments in emerging markets and the first study of public sector efficiency in russia three types of scores of public sector performance and efficiency indicate substantial differences across regions an econometric examination suggests that they are largely explained by per capita income the share of federal transfers in subnational government revenue quality of governance and democratic control and the level of spending

the dual nature of public goods and congestion the role of fiscal policy revisited the role of fiscal policy is examined when public goods provide both productive and utility services in the presence of congestion the consumption tax is shown to be distortionary optimal fiscal policy involves using consumption based instruments in conjunction with the income tax an income tax financed increase in government spending dominates both lump sum and consumption tax financing replacing the lump sum tax with an income tax to finance a given level of spending dominates introducing an equivalent consumption tax these results contrast sharply with the literature where the consumption tax is generally viewed as the least distortionary source of public finance on re examine le role de la politique fiscale quand les biens publics fournissent a la fois des services productifs et de bien etre quand il y a congestion on montre que la taxe sur la consommation cree des distorsions la politique fiscale optimale consiste a faire bon usage des taxes sur la consommation en conjonction avec l impot sur le revenu une depense gouvernementale financee par l impot sur le revenu est preferable a un financement par un paiement forfaitaire ou une taxe sur la consommation remplacer le paiement forfaitaire par un impot sur le revenu pour financer un niveau donne de depense vaut mieux qu introduire une taxe equivalente sur la consommation ces resultats contrastent vivement avec ce qu on trouve dans la litterature specialisee ou l on considere generalement la taxe sur la consommation comme la source de finance publique qui cree le moins de distorsion

the efficiency of state owned and privatized firms does ownership make a difference abstract this paper compares the pre and post privatization efficiency of a sample of state owned enterprises privatized in spain with the efficiency of their closest private competitors we perform a two stage double bootstrap data envelopment analysis model in the first stage the efficiency is estimated through a bootstrapped data envelopment analysis and then followed in the second stage by a bootstrapped truncated regression our results provide evidence that i there were no significant differences in efficiency between the state owned enterprises and their private counterparts before privatization and ii the efficiency of newly privatized firms significantly increased after their privatization while private competitors showed no significant improvement during the same post privatization period

on the estimation of simultaneous equations error components models with an application to a model of developing country foreign trade summary an empirical balance of payments model involving the demand and supply of imports and exports for 31 developing countries is estimated utilizing panel data over 1964 1987 in order to compute errorcomponents 3sls estimates of this model which requires different instruments for different equations we propose a generalization of the fuller battese transformation to obtain gmm estimates our empirical results suggest that very little of the short run adjustment in external imbalances is likely to be achieved by exchange rate policies and most of the burden must fall on aggregate demand management

how does state owned shares affect double externalities and industrial performance evidence from china s exhaustible resources industry abstract excessive entries of business into resource industries can cause allocation inefficiency and externality problems such as resource depletion and environmental pollution these problems have been existed in china s resources industry for many years after opening up to the world china has even begun to lose some critical strategic resources theoretical studies suggest that state owned shares as an indirect form of entry regulation could help the government reduce costs and control risk this paper first empirically analyzed the co integration relationship between double externalities and state owned shares using a seemingly unrelated regression based on china s coal ferrous metal and non ferrous metal resources panel data for 1999 to 2015 the results showed that state owned shares significantly reduced the intergenerational 0 760 and environmental externalities 0 265 however higher state owned shares might reduce industrial effectiveness thus this paper further tested the effect of state owned shares under different threshold degrees of externality the results showed that the effect of indirect regulation was the best when it was associated with a medium degree of intergenerational externality and high degree of environmental externality

testing limits to policy reversal evidence from indian privatizations abstract we examine the effect of regime change on privatization in the 2004 indian election the pro reform bjp was unexpectedly defeated by a less reformist coalition stock prices of government controlled companies that had been slated for privatization by the bjp dropped 3 5 relative to private firms government controlled companies that were under study for possible privatization fell 7 5 relative to private firms this is consistent with investor belief of a point of no return where advanced reforms are more difficult to reverse further analysis suggests that layoffs combined with the privatization announcement served as a credible commitment to privatize

the chinese box the opaque economic borders of the chinese state although the state in china is no longer all encompassing as it had been during the pre 1979 centrally planned period it still reaches into numerous areas of the economy notably through its continuing ownership of state owned enterprises as a result china poses a paradox in that it has incomplete property rights and rule of law which are thought to be essential for growth there are though numerous inefficiencies associated with such a gradual transition which may have maintained a stable growth rate in the past but could hamper future economic development as a key example state owned firms continue to benefit from financial repression in which they received preferable allocations of credit thus china s high savings rate fuels investment which has driven growth but is increasingly inefficient as credit is funnelled to the less productive soes this inefficiency points to the need for legal and institutional reforms which may conflict with the still broad but opaque borders of the chinese state copyright 2011 oxford university press

response of the equilibrium real exchange rate to real disturbances in developing countries abstract using a simple dependent economy framework this paper outlines the links between the equilibrium real exchange rate and some of its fundamental exogenous determinants mainly terms of trade movements and commercial policy changes drawing on existing studies of trade flows in developing countries it is possible to derive plausible quantitative ranges for the response of the equilibrium real exchange rate to both external and policy induced shocks the results should be particularly relevant in designing real exchange rate targets and rules that allow for movements in the equilibrium real exchange rate in response to various shocks

oligopoly supergames some empirical evidence on prices and margins this paper is a panel data study on the behavior of prices and margins of oligopolies involved in repeated games the authors examine two supergame models which generate very different predictions about the cyclical behavior of prices and margins evidence on the levels of price cost margins indicates that oligopolies achieve equilibria that more closely resemble a one shot cournot nash outcome than monopoly the authors find however that industries with high price cost margins exhibit cyclical price behavior which is quite different from that of unconcentrated industries little evidence of price wars during either recessions or booms is found copyright 1987 by blackwell publishing ltd

import compression and export performance in developing countries the debt crisis that began in 1982 forced a number of developing countries that had relied on external financing into rapid adjustment of their current account positions in many of these countries external adjustment mainly took the form of import reduction or what has been termed import compression to generate trade balance surpluses necessary to service the existing stock of foreign debt while the effects of import compression on consumption and growth have been discussed in the literature there has been little concern expressed with regard to the direct effects such a policy can have on export performance this paper develops a model that takes explicit account of the feedbacks between imports and exports that arise through the effects of imported inputs on exports and the availability of foreign exchange on imports empirical tests of this model for 34 developing countries tend to confirm both these hypotheses these results point clearly for additional foreign financing to reduce the need for import compression and its attendant negative effects on the supply of exports

the financial and operating performance of newly privatized firms an international empirical analysis this study compares the pre and postprivatization financial and operating performance of 61 companies from 18 countries and 32 industries that experience full or partial privatization through public share offerings during the period 1961 to 1990 our results document strong performance improvements achieved surprisingly without sacrificing employment security specifically after being privatized firms increase real sales become more profitable increase their capital investment spending improve their operating efficiency and increase their work forces furthermore these companies significantly lower their debt levels and increase dividend payout finally we document significant changes in the size and composition of corporate boards of directors after privatization the last fifteen years have witnessed a significant global shift away from state socialism towards entrepreneurial capitalism one of the most important and visible aspects of this trend has been the enthusiasm with which governments of all political persuasions have sold their state owned enterprises soes to private investors in hopes that the generally unsatisfactory economic performance of these firms can be improved by the discipline of private ownership this denationalization process given its current title of privatization by the conservative government of margaret thatcher in

estimation of a macroeconomic model with rational expectations and capital controls for developing countries abstract in many developing countries financial repression and capital controls have implied that the only domestic market determined interests rates have been those in informal markets the absence of data on such interest rates complicates the estimation of key macroeconomic interest rate elasticities this paper describes an econometric technique for extracting representative values of such elasticities from developing country panel data under such constraints and with the maintained assumption that agents form expectations rationally our results confirm the empirical relevance in developing countries of the standard intertemporal and intratemporal substitution assumptions underlying policy prescriptions to get prices right

green efficiency and environmental subsidy evidence from thermal power firms in china abstract to achieve green development ample environmental subsidies have been invested into many energy intensive firms such as thermal power firms in china investigations of the effects of this kind of subsidy can help to provide specific and important implications for ongoing regulations unlike previous studies on the national regional or sectoral level this paper measures green efficiency and its compositions of thermal power firms and studies the impact of environmental subsidies on green efficiency by using the classical slacks based measure and tobit model the results show that the average green efficiency ranges from 0 509 to 0 663 during 2010 2015 which is much lower than the general efficiency the green scale efficiency is the main reason for the low green efficiency thus indicating large room for improvement environmental subsidies negatively affect green efficiency and its decompositions from 2010 to 2013 the negative effect becomes weak and insignificant in 2014 and the environmental subsidies start to significantly promote green efficiency and its decompositions in 2015 according to our findings some implications relating to improving green scale efficiency increasing the intensity of environmental subsidies to firms and strengthening their supervision are proposed

infrastructure privatization and changes in corruption patterns the roots of public discontent abstract this paper offers a theory of how the degree of corruption that prevails in a society responds to changes in the ownership structure of major public service providers we show that there are cases in which privatization even though it fosters investments in infrastructure also opens the door to more corruption the public dissatisfaction towards privatization is then crucially affected by the changes in the degree and pattern of corruption our model thus helps understand the seemingly paradoxical situation prevailing in latin america where most studies find that privatizations have been efficiency enhancing and have fostered investments and at the same time popular dissatisfaction with the process is extremely high especially among the middle class we show that this line of explanation is consistent with the evidence from surveys in the region

measuring the depreciation of australia s non renewable resources a cautionary tale abstract the pursuit of sustainability is widely seen as requiring the calculation and publication of environmentally adjusted measures of national income and or of economic indicators intended to show whether or not economic behaviour is consistent with sustainability requirements in either case a measure of natural resource depreciation is needed the paper restricts its attention to non renewable mineral resources and measures their depreciation in australia according to different methods proposed in the literature using data published by the australian bureau of statistics the different methods are found to yield strikingly different results the conclusion is that robust measurement of natural resource depreciation is unlikely and that results appertaining to such should be treated sceptically

estimates of the black economy based on consumer demand approaches we propose a consumer demand system approach to estimating the size of the black economy where alternative hypotheses affecting the empirical results can be tested in a nested framework this approach allows for the estimation of the under reporting of household income from various sources dispensing with the need to use arbitrary criteria to classify households by their main source of income it also avoids potential bias in black economy estimates arising from mistaking preference heterogeneity substitution as income effects we illustrate these arguments by estimating the extent to which self employment income in the uk is underreported using parametric and nonparametric techniques the black economy broadly defined as the economic activities that are hidden from public authorities to avoid taxation has recently received increased attention in the literature due to arguments that the rising tax burden and state regulation is driving economic activity underground tanzi and schuknecht 1997 enste and schneider 1998 the usefulness of attempts to estimate the size of the black economy however is a controversial issue the sceptics emphasise the difficulties associated with the precise definition of black economy activities and point to the widely different estimates of the size of these activities resulting from alternative methods dixon 1999 tanzi 1999 thomas 1999 authors approaching the subject in an optimistic frame of mind emphasise positive aspects of estimating the size of the black economy such as the correct measurement of gdp and other macroeconomic variables e g employment and the design of policy and econometric models bhattacharyya 1999 giles 1999 the controversy on estimation issues however does not subtract from the widespread concern about the undesired consequences of the black economy undeclared economic activities reduce the tax base thereby undermining the financing of public goods and social protection a country trying to curtail the loss of tax revenue by raising tax rates can create a vicious cycle as this reinforces the incentive not to declare economic activities to the public authorities high tax rates have a distorting effect resulting in inefficient allocation of resources due to unequal opportunities and willingness to evade in different sectors of the economy and can undermine the ability of the country to compete internationally distortions in the labour market can also arise because individuals working in the black economy may have difficulty in moving from one job to another furthermore in countries where health pension and other social security payments are not universal individuals working in the black economy and their families are outside the

third world debt and macroeconomic interactions between the north and south in this article the authors examine three issues the causes of the south s debt crisis the nature of the macroeconomic linkages between the north and south and some of the debt rescheduling programmes the crisis was due not only to domestic policies in the south but also to the macroeconomic linkages between the south and the oecd economies these linkages may also play an important part in its cure debt adjustment with growth for the south needs a package of measures including greater co operation on macroeconomic policies and trade issues between north and south and a commonly agreed position on outstanding debt

different approaches of modelling reaction lags how do chilean manufacturing exports react to movements of the real exchange rate this study examines the relationship between export supply and the real exchange rate using annual chilean data for the period 1960 1996 the hypotheses to be tested are first that the real exchange rate does matter for the supply of exports contrary to studies relying on quarterly data and second that the impact of a real depreciation only ceases to be positive and significant after about two three years four different distributed lag models were considered as potentially adequate and useful to depict the impact of the real exchange rate over time even though all four models assumed different underlying lag structures they all point to the importance of maintaining a competitive real exchange rate over time the transfer function model is particularly well suited in shaping any lag structure in that it is not presumptive in form

state owned and privately owned firms an empirical analysis of profitability leverage and labor intensity for some it is an article of faith that governmentowned firms must be less efficient or at least less profitable than privately owned firms maxim boycko et al 1996 argue that politicians cause government owned firms to employ excess labor inputs anne o krueger 1990 suggests that such firms may be pressured to hire politically connected people rather than those best qualified to perform desired tasks more generally government owned firms are thought to forgo maximum profit in the pursuit of social and political objectives such as wealth redistribution in addition the residual cash flow claims of these firms are not readily transferable like the shares of a private corporation this impairs residual claimant incentives to monitor managers and ultimately degrades firm performance as a consequence one expects government owned firms to be technically less efficient and therefore less profitable than private firms the implication is that in competitive markets without significant externalities private ownership is the superior organizational form the view that government firms are inherently less efficient than private ones however remains controversial among economists john vickers and george yarrow 1991 among others point out that agency problems arise in private firms as well as public ones in most large private corporations managers own little of the stock because monitoring managers is costly a divergence arises between their objectives and those of private shareholders private shareholders typically hold a small stake in any one firm and it may not pay any shareholder to bear the cost of monitoring management it follows from this discussion that whether government firms are more or less efficient than private firms is primarily an empirical issue to date the body of empirical evidence is mixed in this paper we report further empirical evidence on the relative efficiency of public and private enterprises we build on previous work by studying larger samples over longer time periods and by allowing for additional factors that influence firm performance in particular our analysis controls for time series variation in the general level of economic activity that may otherwise confound performance comparisons between government and private firms 2 we approach the issue in two different ways first using accounting numbers we conduct a large sample cross sectional comparison of government owned and privately owned corporations this comparison is similar in design to that of boardman and vining 1989 but our sample is three times the size of theirs and includes three

business cycles and the relationship between concentration and price cost margins using a newly constructed panel data base we examine changes in price cost margins in 284 manufacturing industries between 1958 and 1981 a key finding is a dramatic narrowing of the spread between the margins of concentrated and unconcentrated industries over this period we provide evidence that this narrowing is a result of the greater sensitivity of price cost margins in more concentrated industries to demand fluctuations this finding is robust to the inclusion of other industry variables and to measures of import competition the results indicate that cross sectional estimates of the concentration margins relationship are likely to be both biased and misleading

the real exchange rate and macroeconomic performance in sub saharan africa abstract pooled time series and cross section data for 33 countries in sub saharan africa ssa confirm the negative relationship between the real exchange rate rer misalignment and economic performance economic growth imports exports saving and investment macroeconomic instability also slows growth and other indicators of performance higher levels of misalignment are accompanied by higher levels of macroeconomic instability both lower levels of rer misalignment and instability lead to better economic performance the edwards model of rer determination performs well for the region black market premia tend to show a greater degree of misalignment in rer than alternative measures

a re examination of china s share issue privatization abstract previous studies show that in contrast to evidence that share issue privatization sip in most other countries have improved firm profitability china s sip of the 1990s had no such effect we argue that the main reason for the failure of china s sip is likely to have been the weak institutional environment in place at that time we examine china s sip in a more recent period in which the institutional environment was greatly improved using a matching sample method we find that sip firms continued to experience negative post sip profitability changes in our sample period however their performance decline was significantly less than that of their matched non sip soes we also find that the introduction of the independent director rule helped to improve firm performance our results reconcile the findings of the sip effect in china with international evidence and illustrate the importance of a developed capital market to ensuring the success of privatization schemes

trade and payments regime and the balance of payments in ghana abstract by 1982 the ghanaian economy was in the doldrums facing a severe foreign exchange constraint this state of the economy was attributed partly to the trade and exchange rate policies which had created distorsions and disincentives against exporting in particular and production in general since 1983 ghana has for the second time embarked on a trade and payments liberalization program this study examines the effect of the changing trade and payments regime on the balance of payments of ghana it provides some answers as to why the first liberalization episode was not sustained it also contrasts the experience of controlled and liberalized trade regime episodes the paper concludes by providing some lessons from the ghanaian experience

uses and abuses of estimates of the underground economy ered valuable by at least a part of society narcotics production and distribution prostitution gambling these activities can be large in some countries and should be counted in the national accounts of all countries although they rarely are their omission affects the comparability of data across countries the incomes generated by illegal activities are rarely taxed many other activities such as those associated with the subsistence or informal sectors are estimated rather than measured and are generally not taxed because of the low value they generate to those who engage in them in conclusion there are many reasons beside the ones discussed in this paper why the measurements of national output may not be complete about two decades ago a few economists became convinced that many normal economic activities that should be measured and taxed were taking place underground or in the shadow thus presumably escaping the attention of the statistical offices of the tax authorities and more generally of the government regulators some of these economists also claimed that like alice in wonderland these hidden activities were growing in a ridiculous fashion see gutmann 1977 and feige 1979 by the late 1970s the role of government had grown enormously so that the level of taxation and the tax rates had risen sharply and regulations had proliferated in many countries see tanzi and schuknecht 1997 these developments had created strong incentives for individuals and enterprises to go underground to avoid taxes and regulatory restrictions thus a good case could be made that what came to be called the underground economy was a phenomenon to worry about newspaper articles were ready to accept the

the pitfalls of water privatization failure and reform in malaysia summary this paper examines why private participation in infrastructure ppi in water continues to be promoted despite poor results in developing countries it argues that the main characteristics of infrastructure discourage private investment and necessitate state subsidies which dilute private risks and incentives and facilitate rent seeking as a result ppi is characterized by public financing selective private investments and inconclusive efficiency gains this is reflected globally and in malaysia where ppi continues to be promoted because it provides captive rents the political factors that drive ppi invariably compromise institutional solutions as malaysia s water sector reforms illustrate

comparative politics and public finance we propose a model with micropolitical foundations to contrast different political regimes compared to a parliamentary regime the institutions of a presidential congressional regime produce fewer incentives for legislative cohesion but more separation of powers these differences are reflected in the size and composition of government spending a parliamentary regime has redistribution toward a majority less underprovision of public goods and more rents to politicians a presidential congressional regime has redistribution toward powerful minorities more underprovision of public goods but less rents to politicians the size of government is smaller under a presidential regime this last prediction is consistent with cross country data

privatization and renationalization what went wrong in bolivia s water sector summary this paper investigates the impact of water service privatization in bolivia it compares the performance of cities in which the service was privatized la paz and el alto with a city in which it is managed as a cooperative santa cruz de la sierra and one where the service is publicly provided cochabamba we find that access to water by low income consumers increased under private provision however the concessionaire failed to meet the targets stipulated in the contract the tariff increases required for full cost recovery eventually led to public outrage that forced the government to renationalize the company

privatization benefits in eastern europe abstract we document changes in the performance of over 6000 privatized and state owned manufacturing enterprises in seven eastern european countries over the initial transition period we find that privatization is associated with significant increases in sales revenues and labor productivity and to a lesser extent with fewer job losses the positive effect of privatization is stronger in economic magnitude and statistical significance as the time elapsed since privatization increases enterprises privatized for less than 2 years have labor productivity growth similar to that of state owned enterprises in contrast enterprises privatized for 3 or more years significantly outperform state owned enterprises the results are robust to the use of alternative econometric specifications fixed effects cluster effects and random effects and survive in six of the seven individual country samples the exceptions being hungary for sales growth and romania for labor productivity growth

multicointegration and sustainability of fiscal practices i introduction governments are charged with the responsibility of crafting national budgets over time budgets tend to move between balance surplus and deficit these fluctuations result from the fact that all too often a government makes financial decisions in one year that have implications for spending commitments and revenue streams a number of years down the road thus responsible government budgeting involves examining the budget position over time that is engaging in intertemporal budgeting economists generally utilize two criteria to assess the intertemporal budget s sustainablity does the government run persistent deficits if so what is the resulting level of debt are these two criteria sufficient to make predictions regarding budget sustainability recent work by bohn 1995 1998 and ball et al 1998 suggests that budgets are far too complicated to be evaluated with respect to deficits and debt alone these authors have shown that persistent deficits and accumulation of debt does not necessarily imply that the debt is unmanageable and hence fiscal processes unsustainable the implication of their work is that the standard approach to testing whether government adheres to its intertemporal budget constraint cointegration analysis does not provide sufficient criteria for determining whether the fiscal process is truly sustainable consequently in this article we develop a more encompassing set of criteria under more realistic assumptions for determining whether a country exhibits a sustainable budgeting process our criteria for sustainability are based the multicointegration approach first presented by granger and lee 1989 1990 and further developed in engsted gonzalo and haldrup 1997 and haldrup 1998 the budgeting practices of 15 industrialized countries belgium canada denmark finland france great britain greece italy the netherlands norway portugal spain sweden switzerland and the united states are evaluated in terms of the criteria our sample spans the modern era 1960 98 we extend the intertemporal budgeting literature by employing the multicointegration framework to develop the appropriate policy responses to deficits and debt accumulation and to test for their presence the methodology assesses both the stock and flow relationships that should characterize sustainable fiscal processes when the data are nonstationary cointegration between the spending revenue flow relationship is the first component of our criteria cointegration between the flow of revenue spending and the stock of debt is the second jointly these conditions characterize multicointegration between government spending and revenue in the multicointegration case the system is characterized by a complex stock flow equilibrium relationship that is not uncommon in intertemporal models of economic behavior such a relationship is typically associated with issues of optimal control where the levels and rates of change of the variables making up the system are determinants of the policy response multicointegration can ensure that a country s budgeting strategy is sustainable in bad states of nature that is when the rate of economic growth falls short of the real interest rate on sovereign debt 1 bohn 1995 and ball et al 1998 point out that existing theoretical models that underpin traditional sustainability tests are too simple specifically bohn 1995 shows that the sustainability of imbalances in a stochastic setting involves satisfying an intertemporal budget constraint and a transversality condition that differs from that implicit in simple deterministic models the transversality condition requires that the limit of the debt discounted at a rate that is a function of the probability distribution of future debt and the marginal rate of substitution between present and future consumption be zero this correct discounting is critical in economies where the rate of growth has been higher than the real interest rate

privatization in theory and practice privatization george yarrow this paper examines the theoretical and empirical case for private versus public ownership privatization usually leads managers to place greater emphasis on the pursuit of profits however whether this is beneficial to society depends on the trade off between possible market failures due to a lack of competition and deficiencies in government control of public firms the competitive and regulatory environment is more important than the question of ownership per se in competitive markets there is a presumption in favour of private ownership where there is a natural monopoly vigorous regulatory action is required the evidence suggests that privatization has led to improved performance by firms such as the national freight corporation and cable and wireless which operate in a relatively competitive environment the benefits are less clear in the case of firms like bp britoil and british aerospace however the most worrying case is that of british telecom and the projected privatization of british gas where little thought has been given to limiting the abuse of monopoly power rather the regulatory environment has been tailored to the needs of the existing management and to ensuring a successful share flotation privatization is also advanced as a weapon for reducing trade union power encouraging wider share ownership redistributing wealth and improving the public finances however there are other policy instruments better suited to achieving these objectives the existing privatization programme has not led to a marked widening of share ownership and has resulted in windfall gains to a small group of investors at the expense of taxpayers in general

budgetary devices for curbing spending prone ministers and bureaucrats in this paper i study asimple game of the budgetary process thegame has three players a spending proneminister who proposes a budget a primeminister who accepts or vetoes and abureaucrat who provides non verifiableinformation about policy the bureaucratis appointed by the spending minister ishow that in this setting public spendingis excessive this result stems from theproposal power of the minister and hisincentive to appoint a spending pronebureaucrat next i examine two devices forcontrolling public spending binding budgettargets imposed by the prime minister anddelegating veto power to a spending aversefinance minister it is shown that thelatter device is more effective than theformer device to curb a spending proneminister because it not only reduces theproposal power of the spending minister but also induces him to appoint lessspending prone bureaucrats

economic perspectives on privatization despite being one of the most fundamental issues in political economy the question of the appropriate boundary between public and private enterprise received relatively little attention in mainstream economic analysis until quite recently in the 1980s however programs of ownership reform were started in many developed and developing countries dramatic though some of these policies have been they are likely to be overshadowed in the 1990s by even greater privatization in the reforming socialist economies the opening sections of this paper are organized around three broad and interrelated questions how does ownership matter for the efficiency of enterprise performance what is the role for privatization in financing public debts and deficits what are the distributional and political implications of privatization finally we examine privatization in practice in three countries britain chile and poland

the financial and operating performance of privatized firms during the 1990s this study compares the pre and postprivatization financial and operating performance of 85 companies from 28 industrialized countries that were privatized through public share offerings for the period from 1990 through 1996 we document significant increases in profitability output operating efficiency and dividend payments and significant decreases in leverage ratios for our full sample of firms after privatization and for most subsamples examined capital expenditures increase significantly in absolute terms but not relative to sales employment declines but insignificantly combined with results from two previous directly comparable studies these findings strongly suggest that privatization yields significant performance improvements during the past two decades the privatization of state owned enterprises has moved from being a radical almost desperate policy initiative of the thatcher government in britain to being an accepted economic policy for governments of all ideological stripes according to gibbon 1998 860 billion has been raised by governments worldwide through privatizations with the bulk of this total coming since 1987 and at least one commentator roche 1996 predicts that no less than 6 trillion will be raised through privatizations over the next two decades in 1997 alone sales of public enterprises totaled a record 161 billion worldwide with more than 110 billion of the total coming during the second half of the year and 1998 s total of almost 140 billion indicates that the pace shows no sign of slackening as we approach a new millennium

a dynamic model of privatization with endogenous post privatization performance this paper presents a dynamic model of privatization driven by improved institutional protection of private property rights and constrained by the buyer s financial constraints government ownership is more efficient than private ownership when private property rights are insecure improved institutional protection of property rights over time creates the need to privatize the buyer s financial constraints affect the timing of privatization causing the firm s post privatization performance either to improve or to deteriorate in the short run financial constraints also have the possibility of inducing an underpricing phenomenon during privatization where the firm is priced below both what the buyer is willing to pay and the buyer s ability to pay faster institutional development calls for earlier privatization but it also has the potential to either create or exacerbate deadweight losses associated with inefficient privatization a host of empirically testable implications are derived copyright wiley blackwell

the performance of privatized firms in the czech republic abstract with the growing importance of privatizations as a part of government policy most empirical studies of these privatizations conclude that firm performance immediately improves following privatization privatization has been the most important part of the transition from the centrally planned economies of central and eastern europe and has a larger impact on those economies than privatizations in other countries however few studies have looked at the performance of firms following mass privatization this study uses 453 separate firms 101 firms privatized in both waves for a total of 554 observations in the first and second waves of czech voucher privatization using methodology from previous studies we find that while the overall effects from privatization are positive the effects vary by privatization wave size and industry firms privatized in the first wave performed worse decline in performance following privatization than firms privatized in the second wave we also fail to find ownership concentration or debt as an important factor in restructuring the firm i believe that the results are consistent with two hypotheses first economic and political structure surrounding the privatization waves plays an important part in the success of privatization stable environments both political and economic help privatized firms restructure and improve operating performance as well as attract foreign investors and capital even in less developed countries but in transitional economies undergoing mass privatization in rapidly changing and developing economic and political environments hinder firms from restructuring and improving performance following privatization results are also consistent with the hypothesis that firms with a longer preparation period prior to privatization an implicit seasoning improve performance following privatization

the performance of privatised enterprises in developing countries abstract privatisation has been advocated as the predominant way to solve the problems facing ailing public enterprises in developing countries despite this the policy remains controversial the available empirical evidence on the operational and financial performance of enterprises after privatisation has often painted a rosy picture this paper reassesses the situation using a larger sample of enterprises and a comparative perspective between privatised utilities non utilities and private enterprises that have never been state owned the results of our analysis point to there being differences in the performance across the three groups of enterprises and in particular to a deterioration in performance among privatised utilities this suggests that the earlier optimism over the efficacy of privatisation may have been premature

privatisation and economic growth in developing countries this article re examines the relation between privatisation and economic growth previous studies that have attempted to measure this relationship have concluded that privatisation has had a sizeable positive effect on economic growth our study uses data for 63 developing countries over the time period 1988 97 it uses the framework of an extreme bounds analysis eba to conduct a cross country growth regression analysis our findings contradict earlier results but reaffirm the view that effective competition and its regulation may need to accompany privatisation to make a positive impact on economic growth

a theory of privatisation public enterprises around the world have proved to be highly inefficient primarily because they pursue strategies such as excess employment that satisfy the political objectives of politicians who control them privatization of public enterprises can raise the cost to politicians of influencing them since subsidies to private firms necessary to force them to remain inefficient are politically harder to sustain than wasted profits of the state firms in this way privatization leads to efficient restructuring of firms moreover privatization is more effective when combined with a tight monetary policy and when the new owners of firms are profit maximizing investors rather than their employees or even managers copyright 1996 by royal economic society

inequality and the us import demand function in this paper we build a model of trade in vertically differentiated products and find that income inequality can affect the demand for imports even in the presence of homothetic preferences the empirical importance of changes in inequality on the demand for imports is then assessed by examining panel data for 36 developing and developed countries for the 1980 1997 period we find significant evidence supporting our prediction that inequality has a large influence on the demand for imports moreover we find that in line with the predictions of our theoretical model this influence is positive for high income countries countries that produce the high quality variety of the vertically differentiated product and negative for low income countries countries that produce the low quality variety of the vertically differentiated product

do privatized banks in middle and low income countries perform better than rival banks an intra industry analysis of bank privatization abstract this paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the pre and post privatization operating performance and stock market performance of privatized banks and their rivals in middle and low income countries first we find that privatization announcements elicit negative abnormal returns for rival banks the effects are more pronounced for subsequent tranche sales where the proportion of government ownership in the privatized bank is reduced second we observe that the privatized banks underperformed the benchmark index in the long run investors who bought shares of the privatized banks on the first day of trading and held them for 5 years instead of investing in the market index lost 24 of their wealth the underperformance is consistent with the negative long run returns that have been documented for initial public offerings third we document marginal improvements in the post privatization operating performance of the privatized banks though the privatized banks in middle and low income countries are better capitalized than rival banks they carry higher problem loans and are overstaffed relative to other private banks in the post privatization period since most of the sample firms are partially privatized we submit that perhaps the continued government ownership of the privatized banks might have hindered managers ability to restructure the firms

foreign exchange reserves and import demand evidence from latin america this paper investigates the impact of foreign reserves domestic real income and relative import prices on import demand for seven latin american countries we differentiate empirically between the short run and long run impact of reserves income and prices on imports the paper has three main results first we show that there exists a unique long run relationship among real imports real income relative import prices and real foreign exchange reserves for all seven countries second we find that increases in foreign exchange reserves exert a significant positive effect on import demand in both the long run and the short run in all countries however the economic impact of foreign exchange reserves is rather small finally we find that the long and short run impact of real domestic income on import demand is positive as well while the effect of relative prices is negative

optimal pricing use and exploration of uncertain natural resource stocks abstract units of natural resources to be called mines are assumed distributed over an unexplored territory according to a poisson process in space at any moment total reserves and unexplored land are given society can determine the rate of consumption and the rate of exploration reserves are drawn down by consumption and increased by discoveries made during exploration the amount of unexplored land is decreased by exploration at any moment the payoff of society is a concave function of consumption less a linear function of exploration with future payoffs discounted optimal policies are considered and in particular it is shown for a large amount of unexplored land the shadow prices of reserves and of unexplored land move in random cycles but show only a slight upward tread thereby casting some light on the failure of mineral prices to rise at the market rate of interest

double externalities market structure and performance an empirical study of chinese unrenewable resource industries externality is always hard to evaluate and definition but the sustainable development of resource based industries is restrained by it particular externalities of unrenewable resources can be divided into intergenerational and environmental negative externalities in this paper double externalities are respectively estimated by the users cost method and contingent valuation method with chinese data separately then scp structure conduct performance model were built by added double externalities into the structure conduct performance econometric models based on panel data the results showed that the administrative mergers and reorganization which were prompted by the government only increased the scale but not getting efficiency large state owned enterprises produced more externalities as well as less profits development of china s economy had still mainly based on resource depletion rapidly and been paying a big price of environmental externalities

privatization and bank performance in developing countries abstract we examine the postprivatization performance of 81 banks from 22 developing countries our results suggest that i on average banks chosen for privatization have a lower economic efficiency and a lower solvency than banks kept under government ownership ii in the postprivatization period profitability increases but depending on the type of owner efficiency risk exposure and capitalization may worsen or improve however iii over time privatization yields significant improvements in economic efficiency and credit risk exposure iv we also find that newly privatized banks that are controlled by local industrial groups become more exposed to credit risk and interest rate risk after privatization

democracy property rights and economic growth what does the global surge in democracy and capitalism portend for economic growth the shift toward popular government is predicted by some to accelerate growth by others to retard it often left out of the equation is property rights as a factor distinct from democratic rule using recent data on 59 less developed and transitional countries this article explores the relationship among institutional factors and growth in the 1980s and early 1990s democratic freedoms and property rights are associated with the dependent variable suggesting that national income in poor countries stands to gain from recent efforts to implant these institutions

privatization not the only answer abstract governments in many developing countries created state owned enterprises soes to produce goods or provide services the private sector seemed unwilling or unable to offer in many cases soes have turned out to be problem children at best inefficient and at worst unable to fulfill their original functions now the recommended solution to the problem of state owned enterprises is privatization but privatization is no more a solution to the problems of soes than soes were a solution to the problems they were created to solve the problem of soes is not ownership but rather a lack of explicit goals and objectives and an absence of organization cultures and systems that support and encourage fulfillment of those goals and objectives in some circumstances privatization may aid in fulfillment of an enterprise s goals and objectives because of the culture and systems it fosters in other cases not

the fiscal impact of privatisation in latin america the goal of achieving fiscal balance through privatisation is misplaced because the revenues generated are rarely large or timely enough to bring the budget deficit under control in mexico argentina brazil and chile fiscal crisis preceded and encouraged the decision to privatise but only in argentina did the revenues from privatisation contribute significantly to fiscal adjustment the article develops a model incorporating time preferences and longer term fiscal impacts which shows that major fiscal benefits can be expected only under rare circumstances politicians continue to tout the fiscal benefits of privatisation perhaps to gain support or to signal their commitment to economic reform

privatization financial development property rights and growth abstract this study analyzes how prevailing institutional arrangements i e property rights contracting rights political institutions and corporate governance practices affect privatized firms performance capital markets development and economic growth most of the studies surveyed show that privatization enhances privatized firms performance efficiency and profitability which percolates to economic growth privatized firms performed better in countries with better regulatory and legal frameworks partial privatization may be beneficial in countries with weak institutions namely the french civil law countries the stronger the economic and the governing institutions the easier it is for privatized firms to thrive and contribute to economic growth overall privatization allows firms to achieve improved efficiency while driving the development of the financial sector

the size and development of the shadow economy an empirical investigation from states of india abstract using the state level data from india this paper investigates the size of the hidden economy in indian states over the period 1974 75 to 1995 96 our analysis has shown that after liberalization of the indian economy in 1991 92 the growth in the size of the hidden economy has decreased on an average our results show that the growth in the size of the hidden economy is approximately 4 less in scheduled election years than in all other years we also demonstrate that the growth is significantly lower in those states where the coalition government is in power an increased growth of newspapers and the literacy rates translate to cleaner governance e g to fewer amounts of shadow economy activities in the economy