the impact of possible climate catastrophes on global warming policy abstract recent studies on global warming have introduced the inherent uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of climate policies and have often shown that abatement policies are likely to be less aggressive or postponed in comparison to those resulting from traditional cost benefit analyses cba yet those studies have failed to include the possibility of sudden climate catastrophes the aim of this paper is to account simultaneously for possible continuous and discrete damages resulting from global warming and to analyse their implications on the optimal path of abatement policies our approach is related to the new literature on investment under uncertainty and relies on some recent developments of the real option in which we incorporated negative jumps climate catastrophes in the stochastic process corresponding to the net benefits associated with the abatement policies the impacts of continuous and discrete climatic risks can therefore be considered separately our numerical applications lead to two main conclusions i gradual continuous uncertainty in the global warming process is likely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies with respect to the standard cba however ii the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policies as their net discounted benefits increase significantly

it s not now or never implications of investment timing and risk aversion on climate adaptation to extreme events abstract public investment into risk reduction infrastructure plays an important role in facilitating adaptation to climate impacted hazards and natural disasters in this paper we provide an economic framework to incorporate investment timing and insurance market risk preferences when evaluating projects related to reducing climate impacted risks the model is applied to a case study of bushfire risk management we find that optimal timing of the investment may increase the net present value npv of an adaptation project for various levels of risk aversion assuming risk neutrality while the market is risk averse is found to result in an unnecessary delay of the investment into risk reduction projects the optimal waiting time is shorter when the insurance market is more risk averse or when a more serious scenario for climatic change is assumed a higher investment cost or a higher discount rate will increase the optimal waiting time we also find that a stochastic discount rate results in higher npvs of the project than a discount rate that is assumed fixed at the long run average level

the experience curve option value and the energy paradox abstract this paper develops a model to explain the energy paradox the inclination of households and firms to require very high internal rates of return in order to make energy saving investments the model abstracts from many features of such investments to focus on their irreversibility the uncertainty of their future payoff streams and the investor s anticipation of future technological advance in this setting the decision to invest in energy saving technology can be delayed providing option value in addition delay allows the potential investor to cash in on future experience curve effects with the passage of time firms gain practical knowledge in producing and installing the energy saving technology enabling them to reduce the technology s up front cost per unit of energy saved we incorporate these fundamentals into a stochastic model where the investment s discounted benefits follow geometric brownian motion to demonstrate the model s capabilities we generate simulation results for photovoltaic systems that highlight the experience curve effect as a fundamental reason why households and firms delay making energy saving investments until internal rates of return exceed values of 50 and higher consistent with observations in the economics literature we also explore altruistic motivations for energy conservation and the model s implications for both additionality and the design of energy conservation policy

applying real options in investment decisions relating to environmental pollution abstract this study focuses on how to assess the optimal environmental investment decisions under economic and ecological uncertainty and establishes the continuous time model using the real option approach to optimize environmental pollution policy unlike traditional cost benefit analysis this work extends the model of pindyck r s 2002 optimal timing problems in environmental economics journal of economic dynamics and control 26 9 10 1677 1697 and attempts to identify the storage threshold of pollution stocks and the optimal timing for implementing environmental pollution decisions

platform competition in two sided markets many if not most markets with network externalities are two sided to succeed platforms in industries such as software portals and media payment systems and the internet must get both sides of the market on board accordingly platforms devote much attention to their business model that is to how they court each side while making money overall this paper builds a model of platform competition with two sided markets it unveils the determinants of price allocation and end user surplus for different governance structures profit maximizing platforms and not for profit joint undertakings and compares the outcomes with those under an integrated monopolist and a ramsey planner jel l5 l82 l86 l96

the option value of renewable energy the case of climate change decision makers receive mixed signals from the investment literature on when it is appropriate to develop renewable energy technology substitutes for fossil fuels this question is becoming more important as attention has become focused on climate change with the assumptions that information is revealed as time passes and the new technologies take a long time to develop renewable energy alternatives are more attractive than they appear on the basis of the net present value criterion that ignores option value option value represents the value of flexibility to use or discard new technologies

a cost benefit analysis of slowing climate change there are many conflicting views regarding the true dimensions of the climate change problem often these viewpoints are based on different estimates of key parameters with little indication as to why parameter estimates vary so much and which ones might be the more reliable the prospects for a co ordinated strategy to tackle climate change appear dim little consensus has emerged for example regarding the costs of abating carbon emissions some take the view that considerable improvements in energy efficiency are available at negative cost by setting minimum efficiency standards for vehicles and domestic appliances e g mills et al 1991 others regard the macroeconomic costs of even small reductions in carbon emissions as substantial manne and richels 1993 in the judgement of other researchers a proportion of carbon emissions arise purely as a result of institutional failings either at a regional level in the subsidies paid to fossil fuel energy producers in the erroneous belief that this promotes economic growth shah and larsen 1994 in failure to deal with air pollution glomsrod et al 1992 and vehicle congestion in urban areas hughes 1994 or at a global level in failing to make appropriate transfers to those countries whose forests contain rich biodiversity which we would wish to preserve pearce 1991

the economics of controlling stock pollutants an efficient strategy for greenhouse gases abstract optimal control theory is applied to develop an efficient strategy to control stock pollutants such as greenhouse gases and hazardous waste the optimal strategy suggests that at any time the marginal costs of abatement should be equated with the present value of the marginal damage of timely unabated emission the optimal strategy calls for increasingly light abatement over time as the pollutant stock accumulates the optimal policy applied to greenhouse gases suggests moderate abatement efforts at present with the potential for much greater future efforts

optimal climate policy is a utopia from quantitative to qualitative cost benefit analysis abstract the dominance of quantitative cost benefit analysis cba and optimality concepts in the economic analysis of climate policy is criticised among others it is argued to be based in a misplaced interpretation of policy for a complex climate economy system as being analogous to individual inter temporal welfare optimisation the transfer of quantitative cba and optimality concepts reflects an overly ambitious approach that does more harm than good an alternative approach is to focus the attention on extreme events structural change and complexity it is argued that a qualitative rather than a quantitative cba that takes account of these aspects can support the adoption of a minimax regret approach or precautionary principle in climate policy this means implement stringent ghg reduction policies as soon as possible

chicken and egg competition among intermediation service providers we analyze a model of imperfect price competition between intermediation service providers we insist on features that are relevant for informational intermediation via the internet the presence of indirect network externalities the possibility of using the nonexclusive services of several intermediaries and the widespread practice of price discrimination based on users identity and on usage efficient market structures emerge in equilibrium as well as some specific form of inefficient structures intermediaries have incentives to propose non exclusive services as this moderates competition and allows them to exert market power we analyze in detail the pricing and business strategies followed by intermediation services providers copyright 2003 by the rand corporation

production efficiency and the design of temporary investment incentives the attainment of production efficiency requires that tax incentives equalize pretax rates of return on different assets at each point in time to achieve this objective the conventional theory of investment tax credits itcs prescribes significantly lower credit rates on shorter lived assets however this result is valid only for permanent itcs we show that the credit rates for temporary itcs should be much closer to uniform than the conventional theory prescribes this result is robust to the presence and specification of adjustment costs

managing risks from climate impacted hazards the value of investment flexibility under uncertainty abstract incomplete knowledge about climate change and the related uncertainty in climate prediction makes adaptation inherently difficult we introduce a real options framework to determine the optimal adaptation to catastrophic risk that takes into account climate change uncertainty the framework can be used to select the optimal adaptation project from a number of alternative projects or to determine the optimal investment sequence of the considered projects in applying the model to the management of bushfire risk at a local government area we find that the framework can significantly increase the value of adaptation investment above the current net present value and also improve upon deterministic dynamic models we also find that it is important to consider sequential investment to preserve investment flexibility under the uncertainty of climate change when decision makers can afford multiple investment projects the loss associated with the use of a simple net present value rule can be substantial and it is important to use a deterministic dynamic model or a real options model

a sketch of the economics of the greenhouse effect over the last decade scientists have studied extensively the greenhouse effect which holds that the accumulation of carbon dioxide co2 and other greenhouse gases ghgs is expected to produce global warming and other significant climatic changes over the next century see stephen schneider 1989 the present study presents an economic approach for analyzing policies to slow climate change

information and the concept of option value this paper examines the arrow fisher henry concept of option value and analyzes its properties including its relationship to the value of information and the effects of increasing uncertainty about the future consequences of irreversible development it is shown that this option value is distinct from but bounded by the value of information in the overall decision problem also it is distinct from a concept of option value that appears in b s bernanke quart j econom 98 85 106 1983 however when there is a continuum of development levels rather than a binary choice between full development and no development some of these conclusions need to be modified

accounting for global warming risks resource management under event uncertainty abstract optimal management of atmospheric pollution is discussed with a special emphasis on the uncertainty concerning the occurrence of undesirable events associated with the greenhouse effect the uncertainty considered here stems from our ignorance of the exact pollution level required to trigger the event rather than from the genuinely stochastic nature of the processes involved taking atmospheric pollution level as the state variable it is found that uncertainty implies the existence of an equilibrium interval within which the emission rate of the greenhouse gases should be kept equal to the natural removal rate of these gases processes initiated outside the equilibrium interval must converge monotonically to its nearest endpoint the determination of the interval requires no knowledge of the optimal policy in contrast ignoring event occurrence risk implies a single equilibrium level attracting the optimal process from any initial level

extracting interaction created surplus abstract this paper demonstrates that the economic surplus which agents produce in bilateral interactions is extractable by an outside party having sufficient initial resources the third party achieves this outcome using a class of exclusive interaction contracts a basic extractability result is shown to be robust to several extensions competition among outside parties multiplicity of interacting agents and a dynamic extension with repeated opportunities to interact finally some connections with the economic intermediation literature are drawn journal of economic literature classification number c79

search design and broad matching we study decentralized mechanisms for allocating firms into search pools the pools are created in response to noisy preference signals provided by consumers who then browse the pools via costly random sequential search surplus maximizing search pools are implementable in symmetric nash equilibrium full extraction of the maximal surplus is implementable if and only if the distribution of consumer types satisfies a set of simple inequalities which involve the relative fractions of consumers who like different products and the bhattacharyya coefficient of similarity between their conditional signal distributions the optimal mechanism can be simulated by a keyword auction with broad matching jel c78 d44 d82

george bush versus al gore irreversibilities in greenhouse gas accumulation and emission control investment abstract this paper investigates the fundamental problem of mitigating the impacts of climate change in an environment of uncertainty and learning in particular the paper uses a stochastic version of nordhaus s dice model to show that the irreversibility of investment capital has a stronger effect than irreversibilities in climate change other than catastrophic effects the implications are that if abatement decisions are irreversible there should be less emission control today than would be optimal without taking learning into account and that policy makers should pursue control policies that are costlessly reversible a variant on the no regrets strategy

a simple model of search engine pricing we present a simple model of how a monopolistic search engine optimally determines the average relevance of firms in its search pool in our model there is a continuum of consumers who use the search engine s pool and there is a continuum of firms whose entry to the pool is restricted by a price per click set by the search engine we show that a monopolistic search engine may have an incentive to set a relatively low price per click that encourages low relevance advertisers to enter the search pool in general the ratio between the marginal and average relevance in the search pool induced by the search engine s policy is equal to the ratio between the search engine s profit per consumer and the equilibrium product price these conclusions do not change if the search engine charges a fixed access fee rather than a price per click a search engine is a platform that serves a two sided market it is based on a technology that potentially improves the quality of consumer search before the advent of internet search engines yellow pages were the closest example of a search engine firms pay to be included in the yellow pages with various degrees of prominence the yellow pages organise the set of firms according to some categorisation system in internet environments consumers use search engines by submitting a query in a language dictated by the search engine the objects that the query elicits depend on the search engine s

induced effects and technological innovation with strategic environmental policy abstract this paper investigates an environmental policy designed to reduce the emission of pollutants under uncertainty where the agents problem is formulated as an optimal stopping problem we first analyze the single agent s case according to pindyck pindyck r s 2002 optimal timing problems in environmental economics journal of economic dynamics and control 26 1677 1697 we then extend the model to the case in which there are two competing agents therefore we consider the external economic effects that are peculiar to an agent s environmental policy decision finally we consider the effect of technological innovation the results of the analysis suggest that if there are two competing agents they implement environmental policy simultaneously furthermore the threshold for implementing environmental policy is higher when there are two agents and how long these two agents take to implement environmental policy depends on the magnitude of the external economic effect furthermore when we consider the effect of technological innovation we show that the incentive to be the leader occurs if an additional condition is satisfied

optimal investment in ecological rehabilitation under climate change ecological rehabilitation is subject to a variety of risks affecting the likely return on investment we propose an options approach to allocating scarce conservation funds that explicitly allows for the irreversibility of investment and risks to investment payoffs the approach captures ecosystem dynamics from extinction debt as well as ecological and climatic risks at the project scale climatic risks are introduced through three channels the effects of climate change on species loss future rehabilitation benefits and frequency of catastrophic events our results suggest that allocating voluntary rehabilitation contracts on the basis of real options criteria increases cost efficiency and delivers greater value for money for the government when compared with the conventional cost effectiveness criterion as it is illustrated for the case of box gum grassy woodland rehabilitation in australia

trend analysis of energy and climate policy environment comparative electricity production and consumption benchmark analyses of china euro area european union and united states abstract this study conducts a reality check on the electricity production and electricity consumption trends in china in the u s and in the euro area and in the eu most of our analyses cover years 1961 2011 the data is based on the world bank s database with supplementary iea database 2013 in this article we perform various trend analyses which are linked to electricity production and consumption developments these regions are major players in global climate change and climate policy our trend analyses indicate in many ways that china is now a global trend setter in climate change and climate policy upwards sloping trends were evident in the chinese energy economy however u s and the eu are still very important players trend analyses of this article indicate that the structures of electricity production and energy mixes are changing our benchmarking studies indicate that the role of renewables is increasing in electricity production and the role of oil based electricity production has drastically decreased the golden age of nuclear energy in electricity production seems to be over at least turning points can be found in trend developments empirical trade off analyses of the study verified conventional research results about high linear correlation coefficients regression models between electricity production and gdp as well as between population and gpd in all regions correlation coefficients measure the strength of association between two variables what was interesting is that our comparative analyses revealed some remarkable differences in linear regression equation coefficients one of them was that the coefficient between population and electricity production is much lower in china than in the u s or in the eu second finding was that the coefficient of the regression model describing linear relationship between gdp and electricity production is highest in china in comparison to the other regions

targets for global climate policy an overview a survey of the economic impact of climate change and the marginal damage costs shows that carbon dioxide emissions are a negative externality the estimated pigou tax and its growth rate are too low to justify the climate policy targets set by political leaders a lower discount rate or greater concern for the global distribution of income would justify more stringent climate policy but would imply an overhaul of other public policies catastrophic risk justifies more stringent climate policy but only to a limited extent

long term risk management of nuclear waste a real options approach in this paper we investigate the optimal timing for deep geological disposal of nuclear waste our model is based on the real options approach to investment under uncertainty in this context the problem is similar to the optimal exercise policy for a perpetual american spread option the potential usefulness of such a model for actual decision making on a sensitive issue is illustrated by some numerical simulations

prominence and consumer search this article examines the implications of prominence in search markets we model prominence by supposing that the prominent firm will be sampled first by all consumers if there are no systematic quality differences among firms we find that the prominent firm will charge a lower price than its less prominent rivals making a firm prominent will typically lead to higher industry profit but lower consumer surplus and welfare the model is extended by introducing heterogeneous product qualities in which case the firm with the highest quality product has the greatest incentive to become prominent and making it prominent will boost industry profit consumer surplus and welfare

true monopolistic competition as a result of imperfect information the paper restates hart s 1985a 1985b definition of large group monopolistic competition distinguishes it from oligopolistic competition and raises the question of whether there are reasonable circumstances that give rise to true monopolistic competition as defined the purpose is to show that consumers imperfect information may create conditions that will turn an otherwise oligopolistic market into a truly monopolistically competitive one