rates of return to human capital a test using el salvador data most of the empirical work on human capital has been confined to conditions in developed countries this is probably due to difficulties in obtaining data for other countries it would be interesting to see how robust the theory and its associated models are in conditions regarded as typical for developing countries this will be considered here using a large data set describing the el salvador labor market two questions will be examined namely a how well does the earnings function of the human capital theory explain earnings distribution in el salvador and b does the return to training called experience here approximate the return to school as is often assumed in human capital research the latter issue is of course related to the notion of overtaking the point in the experience profile when the flat earnings stream is intersected from below by the earnings stream affected by postschool investments

the determinants of teenage schooling in jamaica rich vs poor females vs males the belief that schooling is an important way to reduce poverty and increase social mobility has lead to large government sponsored investment in education in developing countries jamaica has an impressive literacy and primary enrolment rate yet the ability of its secondary school system to enhance social mobility and reduce inequality is limited regression results from a nationally representative household survey show that family background variables parental education and income are important determinants of secondary school enrolment and income is the single most important determinant of enrolment in an elite high school with the impact being twice as large for females part of the income effect is shown to represent unobserved community heterogeneity one conclusion is that the recent cost sharing education policy of the jamaican government if applied selectively to the elite academic high schools will fall disproportionately upon rich households

monopolistic competition in the spirit of chamberlin a general model this paper develops a model of large group chamberlinian monopolistic competition in which 1 there are many firms producing differentiated commodities 2 each firm is negligible in that it can ignore its impact on and hence reactions from other firms 3 free entry leads to zero profit of operating firms but 4 each firm faces a downward sloping demand curve the existence of a monopolistically competitive equilibrium is established in a companion paper more particular questions such as whether the market provides too many or too few products are addressed for a special case of the model

violence or economics what drives internal migration in guatemala politically motivated violence has plagued guatemala since 1966 the first wave of terror coincided with an antiguerilla offensive launched by the government in late 1966 2 waves of terror began in 1969 and 1970 the 4th wave of terror began in 1978 with the highest level of political violence ever 1524 individuals were killed by the guerrillas the military and death squads during the 1966 76 period but a recent study estimated that in 1986 100000 250000 individuals had moved within guatemala to escape political violence another 150000 360000 had fled guatemala to live in other countries between 31 and 7 5 of the national population the analytical core of harris todaro type model was modified to analyze the effect of violence on the migration decision the most common dependent variable used in reduced form migration equations was the probability of migrating from one location to another source and destination unemployment were entered into the migration equation from the 1981 census per capita government spending was entered into the migration equation to test whether governments contribution to aggregate demand was important in attracting migrants the first measure of violence used in the regressions was the number of politically motivated killings carried out in a department from 1966 1976 the second violence measure was per capita corpses found of individuals who had been killed for some political end violence did have an impact on migration flows at least when measured by assassinations the percentage difference between per capita assassinations in origin and destination areas was statistically significant the sign and 5 statistic on the assassinations squared variable suggested that higher levels of violence might cause the migration response to intensify but this variable was significant only at the 20 level both violence variables were statistically significant and increased origin violence did spur out migration

entrepreneurship selection and performance a meta analysis of the impact of education in developing economies this meta analytical review of empirical studies of the impact of schooling on entrepreneurship in selection and performance in developing economies looks at variations impact across specific characteristics of the studies a marginal year of schooling in developing economies raises enterprise income by an average of 5 5 percent which is close to the average return in industrial countries the return varies however by gender rural or urban residence and the share of agriculture in the economy furthermore more educated workers typically end up in wage employment and prefer nonfarm entrepreneurship to farming the education effect that separates workers into self employment and wage employment is stronger for women possibly stronger in urban areas and also stronger in the least developed economies where agriculture is more dominant and literacy rates are lower

the political economy of inflation and stabilization in developing countries the traditional literature on inflation in developing countries has focused on three main determinants of inflationary pressures a money creation b fiscal imbalances and c cost push elements while the first two factors have been emphasized by authors of a monetarist persuasion cost factors have played a crucial role in the structuralist theories developed during the 1950s and 1960s however more recent analyses on inflation and stabilization have shifted their attention away from traditional direct economic causes of inflation such as money creation toward political and institutional determinants of inflationary forces this new literature which has come to be known as the political economy approach to macroeconomic policy has built on some important insights of game theory and the theory of public choice trying to explain why some governments decide to run large fiscal deficits and to rely heavily on the inflation tax typically in answering these questions this recent strand of the literature has emphasized the role of political instability credibility reputation and political cycles 2 in spite of providing some important new insights into the determinants of inflation this new literature is subject to two limitations first until recently most of the contributions have been theoretical without providing empirical tests on their most important implications and second the emphasis has been almost exclusively on the industrialized countries ignoring the developing nations the purpose of this article is to discuss selectively some of the most important insights of this new literature on policy making from the developing countries perspective i will emphasize the policy implications of this approach to inflationary analysis and discuss some of the limited empirical results

labor market adjustment to political conflict changes in the labor market in el salvador during the 1980s abstract i use household survey data for the 1980s to examine changes in the labor market of el salvador the findings suggest that the labor market does adjust to conflict there have been significant effects of conflict on the regional distribution of employment on international migration on internal migration in the areas directly affected other indicators such as labor force participation and self employment rates show outcomes are lower in the areas that were affected by conflict but were lower even before the conflict began and for earnings the level of real hourly earnings has fallen substantially in all areas in the 1980s

public inputs and child schooling in brazil household data from a one percent sample of the 1970 brazilian census are used to analyze the effect of public inputs i e the supply of schooling on children s school attainment in brazil the household data are combined with measures of school availability and quality derived directly from the same census data the measures are based on the number and education of schoolteachers in each of 169 different areas of the country elasticities of demand with respect to these public inputs are estimated these elasticities are high in both rural and urban areas in urban areas the positive effect of public inputs is greater for children from households with poorer and less educated parents in rural areas the positive effect of public inputs is greater if anything for children from households that are relatively better off at least compared to other rural households

returns to education a further international update and implications this paper updates evidence on the returns to investment in education by adding estimates for new countries and refining existing estimates to bring the total number of country cases to over 60 the new cross country evidence confirms and reinforces earlier patterns namely that returns are highest for primary education the general curricula the education of women and countries with the lowest per capita income the findings have important implications for directing future investment in education which for efficiency and equity purposes should concentrate on these priority areas

equilibrium with product differentiation tive consumer formulations is used to examine the properties of single and multiple price equilibria conditions under which decreases in the intensity of consumer preferences reduce price are given it is shown that with certain types of demand curves entry can eliminate price cost markups even given product differentiation if competition is localized it is demonstrated that entry does not affect the markup finally the effect of spurious product differentiation on price is examined

school attendance child labour and remittances from international migration in el salvador abstract international migrant remittances can increase household budget and reduce liquidity constraint problems generating consumption and investment opportunities for recipient households in particular remittances can enable investing in children s human capital and reduce child labour key outcomes from the perspective of growth in a developing country using data for el salvador this article shows a a null or insignificant overall impact of remittances on schooling b a strong reduction of child wage labour in remittance recipient households and c an increase in unpaid family work activities for children in those households moreover the evidence shows important differences by gender and age of the child in consideration while girls seem to indeed increase school attendance upon remittance receipts by reducing labour activities boys do not benefit on average from higher schooling but some time substitution takes place favouring family work activities over paid jobs and among secondary sc

farm earnings educational attainment and role of public policy some evidence from mexico abstract using real household survey data from mexico this study evaluates 1 a the impact of schooling on farm earnings through the direct and allocative effects of human capital 2 b the household demand for children s schooling 3 c using macro level data the association between children s school participation and some policy variables the overall rate of return to household heads schooling is estimated at 25 and for wives 19 the allocative effect of schooling of household heads dominates over the direct effect mother s schooling and farm size exercise significantly positive effects on household demand for schooling while in the macro model policy variables government expenditure and pupil teacher ratio appear strong determinants of children s attainment of primary schooling

true monopolistic competition as a result of imperfect information the paper restates hart s 1985a 1985b definition of large group monopolistic competition distinguishes it from oligopolistic competition and raises the question of whether there are reasonable circumstances that give rise to true monopolistic competition as defined the purpose is to show that consumers imperfect information may create conditions that will turn an otherwise oligopolistic market into a truly monopolistically competitive one

underinvestment low economic returns to education and the schooling of rural children some evidence from brazil a researcher analyzed 1972 1974 data on about 500 low income agricultural households from sao paulo and minas gerais regions in southeast brazil and ceara in the northwest to estimate the economic returns to schooling and to identify the major economic factors which determine household demand for the schooling of rural children the rates of return to schooling stood between 14 15 the main role of the household head was decision making further a considerably higher overall rate of return to education occurred which indicated a strong economic role of farmers schooling agriculture a strong positive association between childrens time spent on agricultural activities on their own farm and schooling p 05 yet household work and off farm earnings were negatively associated with schooling further both parents schooling was positively correlated with childrens schooling but mothers schooling p 05 had a greater effect than the fathers schooling insignificant yet the number of times the father moved off the farm to urban areas and had contacts strongly influenced childrens schooling p 05 when the researcher did not include childrens income family income had a strong negative relationship with childrens schooling p 05 yet when the family income variable was squared the correlation was positive p 05 this implied that when households had such low incomes that they could not meet basic needs any rises in income were invested in quantity of children not quality education yet after an increase in the initial stages household demand for schooling rose as income rose over time as a result of economic development use of improved technology on the farm had a significant positive correlation with schooling p 05 thus the government should see to modernization of agricultural practices eliminating discriminatory economic policies and reducing opportunity costs of schooling for low income parents

effort technology and the efficiency of agricultural cooperatives abstract the inefficiency of cooperative agriculture relative to private farms is often attributed to difficulties in monitoring or poor incentives we develop a model to show that in technologies with numerous sequential steps even small shortfalls in worker effort can result in large output declines using data on cooperative and private farms in el salvador we find greater shortfalls in efficiency between cooperatives and private farms as well as among cooperatives for coffee a crop requiring numerous steps in its cultivation than for maize and sugar which require fewer steps thus the undersupply of effort in cooperatives may be less than differences in productivity suggest and cooperative agriculture is most likely to be successful where production does not involve many sequential steps

a model of multiple equilibria in geographic labor mobility abstract we develop a model of double matching in the labor market and the social environment in order to explain different migration patterns in response to local economic shocks this approach explains the different behaviors of workers in different groups regions or countries in an endogenous way by showing the existence of multiple equilibria rather than in an exogenous manner by introducing ex ante regulations or unemployment benefits this model can also explain why individuals from some communities form sister communities in some cases and not in others

explaining fiscal policies and inflation in developing countries abstract in this paper we investigate empirically the determinants of inflation seigniorage and fiscal deficits in developing countries we first test the optimal taxation theory of inflation for a group of 21 lcds we find that the implications of this theory are rejected for all these countries we then proceed to implement a number of tests based on the new political economy approach to macroeconomic policies we deal with some of the implications of a credibility and reputation model and of a strategic government behavior model we find that the data support the most important predictions of the political economy view of fiscal policy our measures of political instability and political polarization play an important role in explaining cross country differences in seigniorage inflation government borrowing and fiscal deficits we end by discussing directions for future research

the debt crisis structural explanations of country performance abstract this paper develops a cross country statistical model of debt rescheduling and the secondary market valuation of ldc debt which links these variables to key structural characteristics of developing countries such as the trade regime the degree of income inequality and the share of agriculture in gnp our most striking finding is that higher income inequality is a significant predictor of a higher probability of debt rescheduling in a cross section of middle income countries we attribute this correlation to various difficulties of political management in economies with extreme inequality we also find that outward orientation of the trade regime is a significant predictor of a reduced probability of debt rescheduling

intra household labour allocation migration and remittances in rural el salvador abstractmigration can affect labour participation decisions back home either by stimulating work to replace foregone labour or reducing it through the role of remittances using evidence from a r

household income and child schooling in vietnam the stronger are the associations between household income and child schooling the lower is intergenerational social mobility and the less equal is opportunity this study estimates the associations between household income and children s school success in vietnam the estimates indicate that these associations are considerable this article also investigates some ways in which policies relate to household incomes school fees are progressive but school fees are only about one third of what households pay directly to schools and are a much smaller proportion of a household s total school related expenditures total household expenditures paid directly to schools increase with household income less proportionately than do school fees alone so the overall structure of such payments is less progressive than is the structure of school fees because school enrollment is positively related to household income moreover the structure of school fees is less progressive for the entire population than for the selected subset that has children enrolled in school further the two school quality measures that have the strongest positive association with children s school success are much more available to higher income households meaning that higher income households have greater school expenditures in part because they are obtaining higher quality schooling and not because charges for the same quality schooling are progressive across income classes

returns to schooling in less developed countries new evidence from zambia this article provides new evidence on returns to education in a developing country by estimating human capital models for zambia the full model allows for endogenous participation and sector choice removing some bias on the estimated coefficients in the income equation the general finding is that the return to primary schooling is higher in rural than in urban areas the return is higher in the informal sector than in the formal sector and in rural areas it is higher in employment than in self employment moreover selectivity mechanism guides the allocation of workers across sectors among females from urban areas those with the best unobserved characteristics are employed in the formal sector among the males from urban areas the most able are informally employed

returns to investment in education a global update the author updates compilations of rate of return estimates to investment in education published since 1985 and discusses methodological issues surrounding those estimates some key patterns among the three main levels of education primary education continues to exhibit the highest social profitability in all world regions private returns are considerably higher than social returns because of the public subsidization of education the degree of public subsidy increases with the level of education which is regressive social and private returns at all levels generally decline by the level of a country s per capita income overall the returns to female education are higher than those to male education but at individual levels of education the pattern is more mixed the returns to the academic secondary school track are higher than the vocational track since unit cost of vocational education is much higher and the returns for those who work in the private competitive sector of the economy are higher than in the public noncompetitive sector and the returns in the self employment unregulated sector of the economy are higher than in the dependent employment sector controversies in the literature are discussed in the light of the new evidence the undisputable and universal positive correlation between education and earnings can be interpreted in many ways the causation issue on whether education really affects earnings can be answered only with experimental data generated by randomly exposing different people to various amounts of education given the fact that moral and pragmatic considerations prevent the generation of such pure data researchers have to make do with indirect inferences or natural experiments some have been attempted the author looks at the research on overeducation or surplus schooling the conclusions reinforce earlier patterns they confirm that primary education continues to be the number one investment priority in developing countries they also show that educating females is marginally more profitable than educating males that the academic secondary school curriculum is a better investment than the technical vocational tract and that the returns to education obey the same rules as investment in conventional capital that is they decline as investment is expanded