a fast calibrating volatility model for option pricing abstract in this paper we propose a new random volatility model where the volatility has a deterministic term structure modified by a scalar random variable closed form approximation is derived for european option price using higher order greeks with respect to volatility we show that the calibration of our model is often more than two orders of magnitude faster than the calibration of commonly used stochastic volatility models such as the heston model or bates model on 15 different index option data sets we show that our model achieves accuracy comparable with the aforementioned models at a much lower computational cost for calibration further our model yields prices for certain exotic options in the same range as these two models lastly the model yields delta and gamma values for options in the same range as the other commonly used models over most of the data sets considered our model has a significant potential for use in high frequency derivative trading

permanent income hedonic prices and demand for housing new evidence abstract housing demand is examined by looking quite specifically at the income and price variables based on individual household data permanent and transitory incomes are computed through instrumental variables related to human and nonhuman wealth a price is constructed by spatially varying hedonic techniques separation of measured income into permanent and transitory components substantially improves the predictive power of the housing demand estimation and leads to demand elasticities of 1 and 1 with respect to permanent income and price the permanent income elasticity is roughly twice the measured income elasticity

a simplified jump process for common stock returns the specification of a statistical distribution which accurately models the behavior of stock returns continues to be a salient issue in financial economics with the introduction of arithmetic and geometric brownian motion models much attention has recently focused on a poisson mixture of distributions as an appropriate specification of stock returns for example see 12 3 8 10 5 and 1 consistent with empirical evidence these models yield leptokurtic security return distributions and furthermore the specification has much economic intuition in particular one may always decompose the total change in stock price into normal and abnormal components the normal change may be due to variation in capitalization rates a temporary imbalance between supply and demand or the receipt of any other information which causes marginal price changes this component is modelled as a lognormal diffusion process the abnormal change is due to the receipt of any information which causes a more than marginal change in the price of the stock and is usually modeled as a poisson process

the pricing of options on assets with stochastic volatilities one option pricing problem that has hitherto been unsolved is the pricing of a european call on an asset that has a stochastic volatility this paper examines this problem the option price is determined in series form for the case in which the stochastic volatility is independent of the stock price numerical solutions are also produced for the case in which the volatility is correlated with the stock price it is found that the black scholes price frequently overprices options and that the degree of overpricing increases with the time to maturity one option pricing problem that has hitherto remained unsolved is the pricing of a european call on a stock that has a stochastic volatility from the work of merton 12 garman 6 and cox ingersoll and ross 3 the differential equation that the option must satisfy is known the solution of this differential equation is independent of risk preferences if a the volatility is a traded asset or b the volatility is uncorrelated with aggregate consumption if either of these conditions holds the risk neutral valuation arguments of cox and ross 4 can be used in a straightfoward way this paper produces a solution in series form for the situation in which the stock price is instantaneously uncorrelated with the volatility we do not assume that the volatility is a traded asset also a constant correlation between the instantaneous rate of change of the volatility and the rate of change of aggregate consumption can be accommodated the option price is lower than the blackscholes b s 1 price when the option is close to being at the money and higher when it is deep in or deep out of the money the exercise prices for which overpricing by b s takes place are within about ten percent of the security price this is the range of exercise prices over which most option trading takes place so we may in general expect the b s price to overprice options this effect is exaggerated as the time to maturity increases one of the most surprising implications of this is that if the b s equation is used to determine the implied volatility of a near the money option the longer the time to maturity the lower the implied volatility numerical solutions for the case in which the volatility is correlated with the stock price are also examined the stochastic volatility problem has been examined by merton 13 geske 7 johnson 10 johnson and shanno 11 eisenberg 5 wiggins 16 and

normal mixture diffusion with uncertain volatility modelling short and long term smile effects this paper introduces a parameterization of the normal mixture diffusion nmd local volatility model that captures only a short term smile effect and then extends the model so that it also captures a long term smile effect we focus on the binomial nmd parameterization so called because it is based on simple and intuitive assumptions that imply the mixing law for the normal mixture log price density is binomial with more than two possible states for volatility the general parameterization is related to the multinomial mixing law in this parsimonious class of complete market models option pricing and hedging is straightforward since model prices and deltas are simple weighted averages of black scholes prices and deltas but they only capture a short term smile effect where leptokurtosis in the log price density decreases with term in accordance with the stylised facts of econometric analysis on ex post returns of different frequencies and the central limit theorem however the last part of the paper shows that longer term smile effects that arise from uncertainty in the local volatility surface can be modeled by a natural extension of the binomial nmd parameterization results are illustrated by calibrating the model to several euro us dollar currency option smile surfaces

filtering city change and the supply of low priced housing in canada this paper examines the filtering process and shows the extent of the forces that are gentrifying canadian cities the 1996 census micro data are used to develop rent and price age profiles of dwe

product and process innovations in the life cycle of an industry abstract filson rev econ dyn 4 2001 uses industry level data on firm numbers price quantity and quality along with an equilibrium model of industry evolution to estimate the nature and effects of quality and cost improvements in the personal computer industry and four other new industries this paper studies the personal computer industry in more detail and shows that the model explains some peculiar patterns that cannot be explained by previous life cycle models the model s estimates are evaluated using historical studies of the evolution of the personal computer industry and patterns that require further model development are described

the distribution of foreign exchange price changes trading day effects and risk measurement this study investigates the nature of price changes in a variety of major and minor foreign exchange markets the results suggest that the log of price changes over one trading day intervals seems to follow a non normal stable distribution function different measures of location and to lesser extent scale are present for different days of the week dollar denominated price changes are high on mondays and wednesdays and low on thursdays and fridays for all currencies the wednesday thursday result is consistent with the settlement procedures used in foreign exchange transactions in the dollar the friday monday result is consistent with an increase in demand for the dollar prior to the weekend this study offers some previously unavailable results on the nature of price changes in a certain set of speculative markets in particular this is a study of the distributional characteristics of daily and weekly price changes for a number of major and minor foreign exchange markets the results document the existence of non normal stable distributions for price changes in foreign exchange markets these price change distributions differ by day of the week in ways that are only partly attributable to the institutional structure of the market the results of the study are interpreted within the context of understanding how foreign exchange markets operate and within the context of prior studies of stock market data concerned with summarizing the probability distribution of price changes for different intervals including days of the week since bachelier s 1 original treatise that contained the proposition that speculative market prices follow a process that could be described by a normal distribution there have been numerous alternative attempts to describe the stochastic processes which characterize speculative market prices these studies have not resulted in any generalized description of the probability distribution of price changes in such markets indeed the evidence suggests substantial differences in the process among various types of financial instruments the failure to achieve consensus can be traced to the lack of robustness in the statistical procedures employed to estimate processes and to differences in the underlying institutional or economic arrangements which are unique to that market the possibility of differences in the information set used to assess value or differences in technology for transmitting information makes it important to secure additional

allocation inflexibilities female labor supply and housing assets accumulation are women working to pay the mortgage this article uses data from the 1986 canadian family expenditures survey to estimate a life cycle consistent model of household labor supply and commodity demand that incorporates a mortgage qualification constraint based on earnings both the parametric and nonparametric implications of the model suggest that the labor supply of a nontrivial percentage of married women is constrained by mortgage commitments the results of generalized selectivity models of female labor force participation and labor supply show that the positive effect of a high debt service ratio exceeds the negative effect of young children

implied volatility functions empirical tests derman and kani 1994 dupire 1994 and rubinstein 1994 hypothesize that asset return volatility is a deterministic function of asset price and time and develop a deterministic volatility function dvf option valuation model that has the potential of fitting the observed cross section of option prices exactly using s p 500 options from june 1988 through december 1993 we examine the predictive and hedging performance of the dvf option valuation model and find it is no better than an ad hoc procedure that merely smooths black scholes 1973 implied volatilities across exercise prices and times to expiration

modelling the choice of tenure and building type a multinomial logistic mnl model and a naive nested logistic model are estimated to relate differences in household size age income and housing prices to differences in the choice of tenure and building type the estimated models show that the demand for lower density options decreases with a reduction in household size and increases with increasing age and real income higher rents increase the demand for owner occupied single family detached houses higher price levels for the ownership option shift demand toward all of the higher density options particularly toward high rise rental apartments the key assumption underlying the mnl model is examined and shown to not hold true however the differences in the predictions made by the two models are too small to matter in the study of the choices among the major building types issues regarding the choice of models are discussed in the conclusions

tenure choice and the demand for housing this paper deals with the estimation by means of nonlinear methods of preference parameters from observation of behaviour in housing markets it differs from previous work on housing market behaviour in several important aspects first it treats the choice of tenure mode that is whether to rent or own and the housing consumption decision as a joint decision second it explicitly uses the same behavioural model in analysing these discrete and continuous elements of housing market behaviour third it allows for an analysis of the role of capital market imperfections and discriminatory practices in constraining housing market decisions

technology uncertainty sunk costs and industry shakeout i propose a novel explanation for new industry shakeouts because of capacity sunk costs and the fear of backing the wrong technology firms initially invest up to a small capacity leading to a large number of initial entrants as the dust settles and a dominant technology emerges surviving firms expand to their long term optimal capacity which results in a reduction in the number of competitors notwithstanding the increase in total market output copyright 2012 the author 2011 published by oxford university press on behalf of associazione icc all rights reserved oxford university press

gender differences in housing demand this study examines the effect of gender differences in household formation tenure choice housing expenditure and location in vancouver and toronto it shows that the continuing increase in women s income prospects and career orientation will reduce family formation fertility and divorce rates and change housing demand in ways that will affect the growth and character of large canadian cities without in migration the demand for rental housing will decline while the demand for inner city condominiums will grow substantially as women s income prospects approach those of men s the proportion of non family households will continue to increase but the demand for single family suburban houses will continue to grow as the increase in income raises the propensity of both men and women family and non family to buy suburban houses the main reduction will be in the demand for higher density suburban housing the elimination of differences in employment opportunity and career outlook between men and women

estimating the consumption and investment demands for housing and their effect on housing tenure status theoretical work suggests that families live in owner occupied housing if their investment demand for housing exceeds their consumption demand for housing using household data from the 1983 survey of consumer finances the authors test this theory by estimating an ordered probit model of whether families rent without owning property rent while owning property other than their home own their home without owning other properties or own their home in addition to other properties for owner occupiers who own additional property both the investment and consumption demands are directly observed enabling the authors to separately identify these functions copyright 1994 by mit press

an analysis of household mobility and tenure choice an empirical study of korea abstract this paper develops a model of households joint mobility tenure decisions which improves upon the sole existing model in two important ways first the probabilistic structure is appropriately framed to capture the simultaneity of the mobility and tenure decisions second the model is based more directly on utility maximization theory an additionally distinguishing characteristic of the model is the fact that all independent variables in the estimation are expressed in flow terms this is done in an effort to more truly reflect their importance in the decision making of the household the model is estimated using microlevel data from korea the coefficients and derived elasticities are consistent with expectations and korean households are found to behave in a manner similar to that in the united states this suggests that the basic motivations underlying households mobility tenure decisions are invariant across countries

consumer preferences and product and process r d firms often conduct both product and process r d consumer preferences typically play a vital role in determining these r d choices the economics literature however has mostly ignored the interrelationship between the r d choices of firms and consumer preferences istudy product and process r d from the perspective of their relationship with consumer preferences in doing so i find a novel distinction between the two kinds of r d this distinction can explain several empirical observations regarding firms choices of the two and can also potentially enable us to better empirically identify the two

strategic innovation and technology adoption in an evolving industry abstract we introduce a racing model with multiple product generations product innovation spin outs and licensing industry conditions and innovation characteristics affect who wins the race and who markets the resulting product small firms market their innovations when they pioneer a new generation or improve quality in a young generation and license their innovations in mature generations if old generation leaders ever market improvements in young generation goods they do so early on leadership in mature generations persists tests on the rigid disk drive industry 1977 1997 provide empirical support the results have implications for antitrust policies and policies governing employee non compete agreements

the effect of liquidity constraints on consumption a cross sectional analysis this paper examines the effect of liquidity constraints on consumption expenditures using a single year cross section data set a reduced form equation for consumption is estimated on high saving households by the tobit procedure to account for the selectivity bias since high saving households are not likely to be liquidity constrained the estimated equation is an appropriate description of how desired consumption that would be forthcoming without liquidity constraints is related to the variables available in the cross section data when the reduced form equation is used to predict desired consumption the gap between desired consumption and measured consumption is most evident for young households

recovering an asset s implied pdf from option prices an application to crude oil during the gulf crisis we develop a general method for estimating the implied martingale equivalent probability density function pdf for futures prices from american options prices the early exercise feature of american options precludes expressing the price of the option in terms of the pdf there exist tight bounds for the price of american options in terms of the pdf we demonstrate how these bounds together with observed option prices can be used to estimate the parameters of the pdf we estimate the distribution for crude oil during the persian gulf crisis and find the distribution differs significantly from that recovered using standard techniques

evaluation by the aumann and serrano performance index and sharpe ratio bitcoin performance abstractwe compare bitcoin performance based on the aumann and serrano performance index and sharpe ratio assuming that asset returns follow the class of discrete normal mixture distributions the aumann and serrano performance index can take into account higher moments of the underlying distribution of assets and is relevant for risk averse investors we evaluate bitcoin performance based on the aumann and serrano index relative to the performance of other assets our evaluation shows that bitcoin is rated highly by the sharpe ratio but rated very poorly by the aumann and serrano index we also find some stock assets can beat bitcoin by the sharpe ratio when an investment horizon is monthly

structure learning and the speed of innovating a two phase model of collective innovation using agent based modeling continual increase in the complexity of technologies and innovations has resulted in actors i e individuals or organizations becoming more dependent on other actor s knowledge and skills to complement their own skills in the innovation process as a result networks have become more and more prominent in affecting the innovation process conceptualizing innovation as a search and learning process that results in a successful product we introduce a two phase model of collective innovation that accounts for the deliberateness of the innovation process using agent based modeling we explore how interaction structure among a group of actors affects the speed at which the group can collectively innovate in addition we present results from counterfactual simulations to highlight the importance of deliberate search and changing realized connections in modeling collective innovation process moreover we discuss the effects of the structure under different mechanisms of learning and different levels of actor s learning capabilities copyright 2010 the author 2010 published by oxford university press on behalf of associazione icc all rights reserved oxford university press

the evolution of new industries and the determinants of market structure several empirical regularities concerning firm growth rates and industry firm size distributions have been developed by studying primarily mature industries the primary purpose of this article is to bring together and extend empirical regularities on the evolution of new industries and to use these regularities to gain further insight into the forces governing industry evolution to explain these regularities a model is constructed which emphasizes how factors governing the early evolution of industries may shape their market structure at maturity it stresses how chance events and exogenous factors that influence the number of potential entrants to the industry the growth rate of incumbents and the ease of imitation of industry leaders will influence the ultimate number and size distribution of firms in the industry

theory and estimation in the economics of housing demand the main purpose of this paper is to review recent theoretical and empirical developments in the economics of housing demand in particular we ask what is known concerning the permanent income elasticity of housing demand vis a vis the current or measured income elasticity what is known concerning price elasticities what is the appropriate functional form for housing demand equations what is the role of demographic variables what is known concerning dynamic aspects of housing demand what appear to be the major sources of bias in existing estimates of demand equations

decomposing canada s growing housing affordability problem do city differences matter this article examines the role of eight factors that affect the prevalence and incidence of housing affordability problems geography demography migration immigration ethnicity income recipients income source employment and education it develops bivariate probit models that use the 1991 and 1996 canadian census public use microdata to predict the joint probability that a household spends more than half of its income on housing and that its income is below the poverty line the conclusions show that city and regional differences are negligible after the effects of the factors common to all the cities have been accounted for changing employment levels and sources of household income are the most important factors explaining the prevalence and growth of housing poverty while single parents have the highest incidence the growth of the problem is mostly in the young non family households migration immigration and ethnicity play a role that is independent of the other factors education has almost n

demographic change and the housing market evidence from a comparison of scotland and england this paper examines the impact of demographic change on the housing market more specifically a difference in differences methodology is used to explore the effect of population decline and population ageing on house prices in scotland and england wales the analysis suggests that population decline and population ageing put downward pressure on prices therefore the long run trend of rising real house prices can not be assumed to continue into the future particularly in scotland

understanding volatility dynamics in the eu ets market abstract we study the short term price behavior of phase 2 eu emission allowances we model returns and volatility dynamics and we demonstrate that a standard armax garch framework is inadequate for this modeling and that the gaussianity assumption is rejected due to a number of outliers to improve the fitness of the model we combine the underlying price process with an additive stochastic jump process we improve the model s performance by introducing a time varying jump probability that is explained by two variables the daily relative change in the volume of transactions and the european commission s announcements regarding the supply of permits we show that i sharp increases in volume have led to increased volatility during the april 2005 december 2007 period but not for the period beginning in january 2008 and ii announcements induce jumps in the process that tend to increase volatility across both periods thus authorities face a trade off between disseminating information effectively and promoting market stability

the life cycle of a competitive industry firm numbers first rise then later fall as an industry evolves this nonmonotonicity is explained using a competitive model in which innovation opportunities fuel entry and relative failure to innovate prompts exit equilibrium time paths for price and quantity also share features of the data the model is estimated using data from the u s automobile tire industry a particularly dramatic example of the nonmonotonicity in firm numbers

a markov model of switching regime arch in this article i present a new approach to model more realistically the variability of financial time series i develop a markov arch model that incorporates the features of both hamilton s switching regime model and engle s autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity arch model to examine the issue of volatility persistence in the monthly excess returns of the three month treasury bill the issue can be resolved by taking into account occasional shifts in the asymptotic variance of the markov arch process that cause the spurious persistence of the volatility process i identify two periods during which there is a regime shift the 1974 2 1974 8 period associated with the oil shock and the 1979 9 1982 8 period associated with the federal reserve s policy change the variance approached asymptotically in these two episodes is more than 10 times as high as the asymptotic variance for the remainder of the sample i conclude that regime shifts have a greater impact on the properties of the data and i ca

real and nominal interest rates and the demand for housing abstract this paper is an empirical study of the relationship between inflation expectations and the demand for housing the major findings are that housing demand is a function of both expected inflation and the real interest rate but that demand cannot be specified as a function of the nominal rate it is also shown that expected inflation has a larger impact on those households that are likely to be constrained by capital market imperfections

testing the central prediction of housing tenure transition models abstract housing tenure choice is usually assumed to depend on relative tenure specific user costs controlling for the household s lifetime income these models assume perfect capital markets however there is substantial evidence that potential first time homebuyers face significant borrowing constraints this paper proposes a tenure choice model based on tenure transition theory principles that recognizes the existence of both exogenous and endogenous liquidity constraints it predicts that tenure choice depends centrally on a household s liquefiable wealth controlling for the asset price of housing this prediction is tested using household survey data from both the united states and canada

intra day and inter market volatility in foreign exchange rates four foreign exchange spot rate series recorded on an hourly basis for a six month period in 1986 are examined a seasonal garch model is developed to describe the time dependent volatility apparent in the percentage nominal return of each currency hourly patterns in volatility are found to be remarkably similar across currencies and appear to be related to the opening and closing of the worlds major markets robust lm tests designed to deal with the extreme leptokurtosis in the data fails to uncover any evidence of misspecification or the presence of volatility spillover effects between the currencies or across markets

do two earner households base their choice of residential location on both incomes this article focuses on the role of individual incomes in the residential location decisions of two earner households conventional studies often treat households as a black box and describe them by a single utility function the article raises the question is the household utility paradigm an adequate framework for understanding the location decisions of two earner households it tests an implication of the household utility paradigm the income pooling hypothesis for location decisions the results provide evidence for rejecting the hypothesis among childless families but fail to provide evidence for rejecting it when children are present the results raise the need to address intrahousehold dynamics in modelling location decisions