a simple estimator for simultaneous models with censored endogenous reggressors this paper presents a simple two step estimator for models with censored endogenous regressors and sample selection bias the approach unifies the literature on censored endogenous regressors and sample selection bias and provides extensions the procedure employs generalized residuals to adjust for the inconsistency caused by the endogeneity of the censored regressors the paper also provides two new tests of weak exogeneity an empirical example examining the trade off between fringe benefits and wages indicates that the estimation procedure works well a monte carlo experiment suggests that the proposed tests have good power properties copyright 1993 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

extended benefits and the duration of ui spells evidence from the new jersey extended benefit program abstract this paper examines the impact on the duration of unemployment insurance receipt of a politically motivated program that offered 13 weeks of extended benefits for 6 months in 1996 using state level data and individual administrative records from before during and after the program we find that it raised the fraction of claimants who exhausted their regular benefits by 1 3 percentage points had the program run long enough to affect claimants from the first day of their spell the fraction exhausting would have risen by 7 percentage points and the average recipient would have collected regular benefits for one extra week

union wage hours and earnings differentials in the construction industry full information maximum likelihood is used to estimate union wage hours and earnings markups construction union wage markups are positive 58 2 at the sample means since union hours markups are negative 4 0 for most demographic groups union earnings markups 51 1 are smaller than the wage markups all exogenous variables are allowed to interact with the endogenous union dummy variable which allows us to test whether markups vary across demographic groups whether increased local unionization has a positive spillover effect in the nonunion sector and whether increased local unemployment equally affects wages and hours in increased local unemployment equally affects wages and hours in the two sectors

how do households cope with aggregate shocks evidence from the mexican peso crisis abstract household surveys are used to examine the micro impact of a large aggregate shock the 1995 mexican peso crisis this paper examines how the impact of the crisis differed across households and the adjustment mechanisms used by households to cope with this shock the coping strategies examined include changes in household structure fertility household labor supply child schooling and interhousehold transfers many of the mechanisms households use to adapt to idiosyncratic shocks are found not to work with an aggregate shock

unemployment assistance and transition to employment in argentina abstractin 2001 2 argentina experienced a wrenching economic crisis plan jefes implemented in may 2002 was argentina s institutional response to the increase in unemployment and poverty triggered by the crisis the program provided a safety net and appears to have protected some families against indigence despite this success the continued existence of the program which provides benefits to eligible unemployed individuals for an unlimited duration may have unappealing consequences reliance on the plan may reduce the incentive to search for work and in the long run may damage individual employability and perpetuate poverty motivated by these concerns this article examines the effect of participating in plan jefes on the probability of exiting unemployment regardless of the data set the specification and the empirical approach the article shows that plan enrollees are at least 14 percentage points less likely to transit to employment as compared to individuals who applied but did not join the

price changes in the euro area and the united states some facts from individual consumer price data prices of goods and services do not adjust immediately in response to changing demand and supply conditions this paper characterizes the average frequency and size of price changes in the euro area and its member countries investigates the determinants of the probability of price changes and compares the evidence for the euro area with available u s results the facts documented in this paper are based on evidence from individual price data recorded at the store level in all euro area countries except ireland and greece that is in datasets covering austria belgium finland france germany italy luxembourg the netherlands portugal and spain which together account for around 97 percent of euro area gdp the data used are the monthly price records underlying the computation of national consumer price indices and harmonized consumer price indices these data cover a large number of products selected on the basis of extensive household budget surveys

strike coordination and dismissal in uniform wage settings abstract we study a gift exchange game with 12 employees and one employer when the employer can offer individually differentiated wages in a setting without collective action we observe high levels of wages effort choices and total earnings when the employer is restricted to offering a uniform wage trust and reciprocity drop dramatically due to widespread shirking the stepwise introduction of two collective action mechanisms strike and coordination increases the employees share of the total earnings but does not mitigate the free riding problem adding employment risk to the collective action setup drives up wages reduces free riding and leads to higher total earnings however this increase in productivity is not sufficient to achieve the high levels of wages efforts and earnings that we observe with individually differentiated wages

understanding the inventory cycle abstract careful examination of aggregate data from the u s and other oecd countries reveals that production and inventory behavior exhibit paradoxical features 1 inventory investment is strongly countercyclical at very high frequencies e g 2 3 quarters per cycle it is procyclical only at relatively low cyclical frequencies such as the business cycle frequencies e g 8 40 quarters per cycle 2 production is less volatile than sales around the high frequencies it is more volatile than sales only around business cycle or lower frequencies 3 unlike capital investment or gdp the bulk of the variance of inventory investment is concentrated around high frequencies rather than around business cycle frequencies these features of production and inventory behavior at the low and high frequencies provide a litmus test for inventory theories this paper shows that the stockout avoidance theory kahn j 1987 inventories and the volatility of production american economic review 77 667 679 has much better potential than other competing theories for explaining the seemingly paradoxical features of inventory fluctuations observed at different cyclical frequencies my analysis suggests that demand shocks are the main source of the business cycle

the expenditure switching effect welfare and monetary policy in a small open economy abstract this paper analyses the implications of the expenditure switching effect for the role of the exchange rate in monetary policy in a small open economy it is shown that when the elasticity of substitution between home and foreign goods is not equal to unity welfare depends on the variances of producer prices and the terms of trade producer price targeting is compared to consumer price targeting and a fixed exchange rate it is found that a fixed exchange rate yields higher welfare than the other regimes only when the elasticity of substitution between home and foreign goods is very high

job creation and job destruction in great britain in the 1980s using data from the workplace industrial relations surveys of 1980 1984 and 1990 the authors investigate processes of job creation and job destruction in britain they find that rates of employment growth job creation and job destruction were higher at the end of the 1980s than at the beginning bothjob creation and job destruction were extremely concentrated about 50 of each was accounted for by just 4 of continuing establishments employment growth was apparently more variable in manufacturing plants than in private service sector workplaces some variables negatively related to employment growth were unionization establishment size establishment age and location in the private manufacturing sector versus private service sector

input and output inventories abstract this paper presents a new stage of fabrication inventory model with delivery usage and stocks of input materials that distinguishes between gross production and value added it extends the linear quadratic model of output inventories by adding the joint determination of input inventories empirically input inventories are more important than output inventories maximum likelihood estimation of the decision rules yields correctly signed and significant parameter estimates using data for nondurable and durable goods industries but the overidentifying restrictions of the model are rejected the value added specification dominates because adjustment costs on materials usage are critical to fitting the data

taking stock a critical assessment of recent research on inventories empirical and theoretical aspects of inventory behavior became hot topics in the 1950s and early 1960s no one seemed to notice the tension that was developing between the emerging macroeconomic and microeconomic views of inventories macroeconomists routinely thought of inventories as a destabilizing factor yet the prevailing micro theory viewed inventories as a stabilizing factor it was a fascinating question that was barely explored instead somewhat inexplicably interest in inventories dried up as if inventories were of minor economic significance and little intrinsic interest by the early 1980s then economists once again knew something they had known in the 1950s that inventory investment is of first order importance in business cycles but they were also beginning to realize that the standard production smoothing buffer stock model of inventories was in deep trouble this paper focuses on developments since that realization

s s inventory policies in general equilibrium we study the aggregate implications of s s inventory policies in a dynamic general equilibrium model with aggregate uncertainty firms in the model s retail sector face idiosyncratic demand risk and s s inventory policies are optimal because of fixed order costs the distribution of inventory holdings affects the aggregate outcome in two ways variation in the decision to order and variation in the rate of sale through the pricing decisions of retailers we find that both mechanisms must operate to reconcile observations that orders are more volatile than and inventory investment is positively correlated with sales while remaining consistent with other salient business cycle characteristics the model exhibits strong amplification for some shocks and persistence to a limited extent

the impact of the potential duration of unemployment benefits on the duration of unemployment abstract this paper examines the impact of the potential duration of unemployment insurance ui benefits on unemployment in the united states first we use a large sample of household heads to examine differences in the unemployment spell distributions of ui recipients and nonrecipients sharp increases in the escape rate from unemployment both through recalls and new job acceptances are apparent for ui recipients around the time of benefits exhaustion such increases are not apparent at similar points of spell duration for nonrecipients second our analysis of accurate administrative data from 12 states indicates that a one week increase in potential benefit duration increases the average duration of the unemployment spells of ui recipients by 0 16 to 0 20 weeks

do benefit cuts boost job finding swedish evidence from the 1990s in june 1995 the swedish parliament decided to cut the replacement rate in unemployment insurance from 80 percent to 75 percent a change that took effect on january 1 1996 this paper examines h

union effects on nonunion wages evidence from panel data on industries and cities the authors test for threat and crowding effects of unions on non union wages at the industry and city levels using panel data on the percent organized and nonunion industry and city wage differentials constructed from current population surveys over the period 1973 89 at the industry level increases in the percent organized were associated with decreases in the nonunion industry wage differential suggesting that crowding effects were the predominant union effect on nonunion industry wage differentials in contrast at the city level increases in the percent organized were associated with increases in the nonunion city wage differential suggesting that threat effects predominated the authors also find evidence of negative cross occupation union effects on nonunion industry wage differentials supporting their hypothesis that the industry level results were partly driven by complementarity between union and nonunion labor

new directions for stochastic open economy models the paper develops a simple stochastic new open economy macroeconomic model based on sticky nominal wages explicit solution of the wage setting problem under uncertainty allows one to analyze the effects of the monetary regime on welfare expected output and the expected terms of trade despite the potential interplay between imperfections due to sticky wages and monopoly the optimal monetary policy rule has a closed form solution to motivate our model we show that observed correlations between terms of trade and exchange rates are more consistent with our traditional assumptions about nominal rigidities than with a popular alternative based on local currency pricing 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

optimal monetary policy with international trade in intermediate inputs abstract this paper examines optimal monetary policy in a two country new keynesian model with international trade in intermediate inputs we derive the loss function of a cooperative monetary policymaker and find that the optimal monetary policy must target intermediate goods price inflation rates final goods price inflation rates final goods output gaps and relative price gaps we use the welfare loss under the optimal monetary policy as a benchmark to evaluate the welfare implications of three taylor type monetary policy rules a main finding is that the degree of price stickiness at the stage of intermediate goods production is a key factor to determine which policy rule should be followed specifically when the degree of price stickiness at the stage of intermediate goods production is high the policymaker should follow intermediate goods ppi based taylor rule whereas cpi based taylor rule should be followed when the degree of price stickiness at the stage of intermediate goods production is intermediate or low

inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule the purpose of the paper is to survey and discuss in ation targeting in the context of monetary policy rules the paper provides a general conceptual discussion of monetary policy rules attempts to clarify the essential characteristics of in ation targeting compares in ation targeting to other monetary policy rules and draws some conclusions for the monetary policy of the european system of central banks jel classi cation e42 e52

union effects on productivity evidence from western u s sawmills the authors conjecture that previous studies have tended to overestimate the productivity of union firms relative to nonunion firms due to inadequate controls for output quality and input usage important omissions if the higher cost of unionized labor leads to less labor intensive products and techniques to avoid those problems this study examines a fairly standardized commodity lumber and controls for detailed product attributes and inputs an analysis of data from a survey administered by the authors shows that unionized sawmills were between 12 and 21 less productive than nonunionized mills in fiscal year 1986 as predicted when product quality and raw material usage are not included in the analysis the estimate of union productivity is biased upward

jobs and the business life cycle in the uk there have been a number of statistical studies in recent years of the firm life cycle its effects on employment and the role of small firms in the job generation process they have all followed the changes which take place in a population of firms through time birch based his usa national analysis on the dun and bradstreet computer files for 5 6 million establishments covering 80 of all private sector employment and some of his findings were of a controversial nature most british studies to date have been limited to single regions looking at aspects of job generation in detail there is now a series of local studies for the regions of glasgow the midlands cleveland manchester and merseyside the dti ganguly 1982a has carried out an important national study based on vat data and a sectoral study macey 1982 of manufacturing the study described here used the data of dun and bradstreet uk the commercial credit rating market research and information company to estimate job generation pe

supporting communities in transition the impact of the armenian social investment fund the armenian social investment fund supports communities efforts to improve local infrastructure during armenia s economic transition away from central planning financing community designed and implemented projects to rehabilitate primary schools water systems and other infrastructure this article considers the targeting household impact and community effects of the social fund s activities it relies on a nationally representative household survey oversampled in areas where the social fund was active using propensity and pipeline matching techniques to control for community self selection into the social fund it evaluates the household effects of rehabilitating schools and water systems the results show that the social fund reached poor households particularly in rural areas education projects increased households spending on education significantly and had mild effects on school attendance potable water projects increased household access to water and had mild positive effects on health communities that completed a social fund project were less likely than the comparison group to complete other local infrastructure projects suggesting that social capital was expended in these early projects by contrast communities that joined the social fund later and had not yet completed their projects took more initiatives not supported by the social fund in centrally planned economies national governments exerted tremendous economic control this control extended to investment in local infrastructure including building and maintaining roads schools and water systems when these economies collapsed governments became bereft of resources systems for maintaining local infrastructure began to fail as deep economic recession took hold schools and water systems fell into disrepair local public services deteriorated compounding other hardships for people living in postcommunist conditions but because communities were accustomed to relying on central authorities to meet local needs they often were unable to address their problems

the effect of unionization on productivity evidence from a long panel of coal mines the author measures the effect of unionization on productivity based on a panel of west virginia coal mines from 1897 to 1928 output and inputs are measured in physical terms and most of the mine

informality over the life cycle abstract in developing countries informality is mainly concentrated among younger and older workers and low skilled workers in this study we propose a dual labor market theory that highlights how frictions and taxation in the formal sector and educational choices interact to shape the informality rate over the life cycle we develop a life cycle model with search frictions skill heterogeneities and endogenous educational choices we carry out a numerical analysis and show that our model reproduces remarkably well the life cycle patterns of informality non employment and formal employment in argentina we analyze several public policies and show that an educational grant reduces both informality and non employment and may be fully financed by the extra tax revenues generated by the increase in formal employment and wages lowering taxes may achieve similar results but is detrimental to the government budget despite increasing the base on which they are levied

on the employment effects of productivity shocks the role of inventories demand elasticity and sticky prices abstract whether technological progress raises or lowers employment in the short run has been the subject of much debate in the recent years we show that cross industry differences in inventory holding costs demand elasticities and price rigidities potentially all affect employment decisions in the face of productivity shocks in particular the employment response to a permanent productivity shock is more likely to be positive the less costly it is to hold inventories the more elastic industry demand is and the more flexible prices are using data on 458 4 digit u s manufacturing industries over the period 1958 1996 we find statistically significant effects of variations in inventory holdings and demand elasticities on short run employment responses but less conclusive evidence pertaining to the effects of measured price stickiness

economic impacts of new unionization on private sector employers 1984 2001 economic impacts of unionization on employers are difficult to estimate in the absence of large representative data on establishments with union status information estimates are also confounded by selection bias because unions could organize at highly profitable enterprises that are more likely to grow and pay higher wages using multiple establishment level data sets that represent establishments that faced organizing drives in the united states during 1984 1999 this paper uses a regression discontinuity design to estimate the impact of unionization on business survival employment output productivity and wages essentially outcomes for employers where unions barely won the election e g by one vote are compared with those where the unions barely lost the analysis finds small impacts on all outcomes that we examine estimates for wages are close to zero the evidence suggests that at least in recent decades the legal mandate that requires the employer to bargain with a certified union has had little economic impact on employers because unions have been somewhat unsuccessful at securing significant wage gains

constructing and estimating a realistic optimizing model of monetary policy abstract a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model with real and nominal both price and wage rigidities succeeds in capturing some key nominal features of u s business cycles additive technology shocks as well as multiplicative shocks are introduced and shown to be crucial monetary policy is specified as an interest rate targeting rule following developments in the structural vector autoregression var literature the interaction between real and nominal rigidities is essential to reproduce the liquidity effect of monetary policy the model is estimated by maximum likelihood on u s data and its fit is comparable to that of an unrestricted first order var besides producing reasonable impulse responses and second moments this model replicates a feature of u s business cycles never captured by previous research with dsge models that an increase in interest rates predicts a decrease in output two to six quarters in the future

trade unions and employment change an analysis of british establishment data few explanations of the changing employment structures of industrialised countries have omitted some reference to the role of trade unions for some commentators it is the unions ability to raise wages above their natural market level that constitutes a brake on employment growth by increasing the employer s costs and making product prices uncompetitive for others it is the unions power to impose uneconomic working practices upon management that leads to decline or lack of growth of the organisation for a discussion see freeman and medoff 1984 mayhew 1983 empirical testing of these and other lines of explanation has been hampered in britain by lack of suitable datasets while employment data are detailed and widely available systematic and reliable information on the extent of trade union influence has been restricted to reported membership levels for broad industry groups see for example bain and price 1983 pencavel 1974 the coverage of collective bargaining derived from earnings surveys see for example mulvey 1976 layard metcalf and nickel1 1978 and the extent and frequency of strike action see for example smith et al 1978 j the availability of a new series of nationally representative surveys at the establishment level has enabled us to obtain new insights into the relationship between changes in employment and trade union organisation at the point where such relationships arguably occur the place of work the

optimal simple and implementable monetary and fiscal rules welfare maximizing monetary and fiscal policy rules are studied in a model with sticky prices money and distortionary taxation the ramsey optimal policy is used as a point of comparison the main findings are the size of the inflation coefficient in the interest rate rule plays a minor role for welfare it matters only insofar as it affects the determinacy of equilibrium optimal monetary policy features a muted response to output interest rate rules that feature a positive response to output can lead to significant welfare losses the welfare gains from interest rate smoothing are negligible optimal fiscal policy is passive the optimal monetary and fiscal rule combination attains virtually the same level of welfare as the ramsey optimal policy

union organizing activity firm growth and the business cycle this paper analyzes the relationship between changes in unionization and firm growth average growth is significantly low er in manufacturing firms that experience successful union elections bu t these strong effects are largely illusory the authors find no evidence of a significant relationship between unionization and firm growth despite a strong cyclical pattern in election activity thei r results suggest that the significant negative effect of organizing activity on a firm s market value is not accompanied by any growth changes the authors therefore cannot reject the hypothesis that t he equity losses from union election activity represent a simple transf er of wealth from shareholders to workers copyright 1993 by american economic association

union firm bargaining and the influence of product market power and production technology on systematic risk the relationship between the capm firm beta and the firm s microeconomic decisions is studied by a model under uncertainty which combines the feature of an ex ante inputs substituable production technology and the existence of a union which bargains over various economic dimensions of the firm it is shown that the earlier findings of a relationship between the firm beta the firm product market power and the labor capital ratio may be reinforced through the indirect channel of labor market bargaining but the relationship becomes more complex and heavily depends on the scope of the union firm bargaining process this yields the empirical prediction confirmed for a panel of belgian firms that any proper estimation of the determinants of firm beta must control for firms in the sample being unionized

inventories and the business cycle an equilibrium analysis of s s policies we develop an equilibrium business cycle model where nonconvex delivery costs lead firms to follow s s inventory policies calibrated to postwar us data the model reproduces two thirds of the cyclical variability of inventory investment moreover it delivers strongly procyclical inventory investment greater volatility in production than sales and a countercyclical inventory to sales ratio our model challenges several prominent claims involving inventories including the widely held belief that they amplify aggregate fluctuations despite the comovement between inventory investment and final sales gdp volatility is essentially unaltered by inventory accumulation because procyclical inventory investment diverts resources from final production thereby dampening fluctuations in sales

are union productivity effects overestimated evidence from coal mining the empirical literature of the influence of unions on productivity is extended by considering the effect in an industry with heterogeneous firms recent theoretical papers suggest that in such an industry unions will tend to organize the exogenously more productive firms thus a spurious correlation between unions and productivity may emerge we test this hypothesis by estimating production functions for coal with data from eastern kentucky underground coal mines the aspect of mine heterogeneity that we focus on is the width of the mine s seam of coal wider seams increase productivity empirically we find that unions disproportionately organize mines with wider seams and this accounts for the positive relationship between unions and productivity observed in our data in fact once seam thickness is accounted for the estimated effect of unions on productivity is negative

exchange rates and monetary policy in emerging market economies this paper investigates the effects of exchange rate regimes and alternative monetary policy rules for an emerging market economy that is subject to a volatile external environment in the form of shocks to world interest rates and the terms of trade in particular we highlight the impact of financial frictions and the degree of exchange rate pass through in determining the relative performance of alternative regimes in stabilizing the economy in the face of external shocks our results are quite sharp when exchange rate pass through is high a policy of non traded goods inflation targeting does best in stabilizing the economy and is better in welfare terms when exchange rate pass through is low however a policy of strict cpi inflation targeting is better in all cases a fixed exchange rate is undesirable in addition financial frictions have no implications for the ranking of alternative policy rules

market structure and worker quality it is frequently asserted although never directly tested that firms in more monopolistic industries hire better qualified workers this paper presents two new results first worker quality education in particular is a strong determinant of whether a worker is employed in a concentrated industry when using a traditional data source second upon expanding the data to include measures of research and development workers of better quality are actually no more likely to locate in concentrated industries these results fit with theories claiming that industries subject to technological opportunities may be more concentrated and that those opportunities demand higher quality workers i introduction at least a score of articles since the 1960s test the hypothesis that more concentrated industries pay workers higher wages other things equal this investigation has been part of a more general examination of whether or not concentrated structure generates inefficiencies beyond the deviation of price from cost unfortunately this large scale effort has not been rewarded with consistent results separate researchers both confirm and fail to confirm an independent role for industrial concentration in wage determination among those who fail to confirm the concentration earnings hypothesis one explanation is offered most often while concentrated industries pay higher wages they obtain better qualified workers the generally acknowledged simple correlation between wages and concentration becomes an insignificant partial correlation in the presence of a vector of controls while some of the typical controls could be considered measures of worker quality others clearly are not it may be one or more of these non quality controls which frequently include industry characteristics which eliminates the significance of concentration for example plant size and unionization known to be correlated with both wages and concentration are among the more likely non quality variables which could explain the lack of the authors thank william j adams william g shepherd gary solon and frank p stafford their suggestions improved early versions of this paper thanks is also expressed to almarin phillips who suggested the association with technological progress those confirming a positive statistical association between wages and industrial concentration include dalton and ford 119771 mellow 119831 kwoka 119831 long and link 119831 and heywood 119861 those failing to find such an association include weiss 119661 rapping 1967 pugel i9801 and freeman and medoff 119811

state dependent or time dependent pricing does it matter for recent u s inflation in the 1988 2004 micro data collected by the u s bureau of labor statistics for the cpi price changes are frequent every 4 7 months depending on the treatment of sale prices and large in absolute value on the order of 10 the size and timing of price changes varies considerably for a given item but the size and probability of a price change are unrelated to the time since the last price change movements in aggregate inflation reflect movements in the size of price changes rather than the fraction of items changing price due to offsetting movements in the fraction of price increases and decreases neither leading time dependent models taylor or calvo nor 1 st generation state dependent models match all of these facts some 2 nd generation state dependent models however appear broadly consistent with the empirical patterns

unemployment insurance in theory and practice a hallmark of modern labor economics is the close interplay between the development of theory data sources and econometric testing the evolution of the economic analysis of unemployment insurance provides a good illustration new theoretical approaches in particular job search theory have inspired a large amount of empirical research some of it methodologically innovative and most of it highly relevant for economic policy the paper presents a broad survey and an assessment of the economic analysis of unemployment insurance as it has evolved since the 1970s

inflation targeting should it be modeled as an instrument rule or a targeting rule abstract the paper discusses how current inflation targeting should be modeled and argues that it is better represented as a commitment to a targeting rule a rule specifying operational objectives for monetary policy or a condition for the target variables than as a commitment to a simple instrument rule like a taylor rule

unionization and cost of production compensation productivity and factor use effects unionization affects cost of production through compensation premia technology shifts and deviations from the least cost combination of inputs the first two are familiar but the last is not this article distinguishes the three effects illustrates the factor use effect and suggests that it may resolve several apparent inconsistencies union induced cost effects appear larger than those implied by union compensation and productivity differentials union compensation and productivity differentials suggest a larger effect on labor intensity of output than is observed and employers complain that union work rules reduce productivity when there is little evidence that this is so

unionism and productivity in west virginia coal mining this study presents econometric estimates of the effects of unionism on productivity in 83 west virginia coal mines in the early 1920s the size detail and panel structure of the data set permit investigation of many possible links between unionism and productivity in contrast to the summary measures reported by most studies the results show that the union effect was not uniform across mines and cannot be represented by a simple shift parameter rather unionism significantly reduced productivity at small mines but not at large mines drawing on historical evidence the author ascribes this differential effect to systematic differences between small and large operations in the quality of management and union leadership

unemployment duration and economic incentives a quasi random assignment approach abstract we investigate how economic incentives and spell duration affect hazard rates out of insured unemployment we take into account that insured unemployment not always ends in employment but also in disability training programs or benefit sanctions our empirical basis is norwegian register data containing variation in economic incentives and spell duration similar to that of random assignment experiments we find that the employment and benefit sanction hazards are negatively affected by the unemployment insurance replacement ratio but that the effects vary considerably among individuals there is negative duration dependence in the employment hazard and positive duration dependence in the disability hazard

investment and union certification using data on union certification elections we estimate the impact of unionization on firms investment behavior employing both a standard q model and an investment surprises technique we find that union certification significantly reduces investment in the year following the election we find that a winning certification election has on average about the same effect on investment in the year following the event as would given the elasticity measures taken from the public finance literature a 33 percentage point increase in the corporate tax the magnitude of the response in years further away from the election is less certain

unemployment insurance and unemployment spells this paper tests the effects of the level and length of unemployment insurance benefits on unemployment durations the paper particularly studies individual behavior during the weeks just prior to when benefits lapse higher unemployment insurance benefits are found to have a strong negative effect on the probability of leaving unemployment however the probability of leaving unemployment rises dramatically just prior to when benefits lapse individual data are used with accurate information of spell durations and the level and length of benefits the semiparametric estimation techniques used in the paper yield more plausible estimates than conventional approaches and provide useful diagnostics copyright 1990 by the econometric society

unions and the incidence of performance linked pay schemes in britain abstract this paper examines the relationship between trade unions and the incidence of share ownership profit sharing and value added schemes in britain the first two schemes are more common in the union sector whilst the third occurs more in non union establishments a distinction is made between weak and strong unions and it is found that performance linked pay schemes are in general less likely to be present if an establishment has a strong union rather than a weak one

employment determination in british industry investigations using micro data this paper derives and then estimates a model of employment where unions and firms bargain over wages and possibly employment and efficiency wage considerations may be important it illustrates the difficulties associated in interpreting many existing attempts to discriminate between alternative models the results based on over 200 u k firms suggest that employment is negatively related to the firm s own wage and the change in the own wage relative to outside opportunities the latter may be an efficiency wage effect various financial factors are also seen to have a significant effect on employment

unionized construction workers are more productive this paper presents evidence on the effect of unionism on productivity in construction the linkages are distinct from those studied previously in industrial settings apprenticeship training and hiring halls probably raise union productivity while jurisdictional disputes and restrictive work rules lower it using brown and medoff s methodology union productivity measured by value added per employee is 44 to 52 percent higher than nonunion the estimate declines to 17 to 22 percent when estimates of interarea construction price differences are used to deflate value added occupational mix differences and possibly apprenticeship training account for 15 to 27 percent of this difference

optimal monetary policy optimal monetary policy maximizes the welfare of a representative agent given frictions in the economic environment constructing a model with two sets of frictions costly price adjustment by imperfectly competitive firms and costly exchange of wealth for goods we find optimal monetary policy is governed by two familiar principles first the average level of the nominal interest rate should be sufficiently low as suggested by milton friedman that there should be deflation on average yet the keynesian frictions imply that the optimal nominal interest rate is positive second as various shocks occur to the real and monetary sectors the price level should be largely stabilized as suggested by irving fisher albeit around a deflationary trend path since expected inflation is roughly constant through time the nominal interest rate must therefore vary with the fisherian determinants of the real interest rate although the monetary authority has substantial leverage over real activity in our model economy it chooses real allocations that closely resemble those which would occur if prices were flexible in our benchmark model there is some tendency for the monetary authority to smooth nominal and real interest rates

inventories and optimal monetary policy in a small open economy abstract we study how inventory investment affects the design of optimal monetary policy in a new keynesian small open economy model we find that under producer currency pricing when the intratemporal elasticity of substitution is smaller than 1 optimal monetary policy in our model with inventories is similar to a standard model without inventories however when the intratemporal elasticity of substitution is larger than 1 inventory investment increases the importance of nominal exchange rate stabilization relative to a standard model without inventories the importance of nominal exchange rate stabilization increases with the intratemporal elasticity of substitution

ranking unemployment duration and wages it explores the implication of one central assumption when firms receive multiple acceptable applications they hire the worker who has been unemployed for the least amount of time this assumption ranking is contrasted with the assumption of random hiring no ranking by embodying this assumption in a model of the labour market with job creation destruction and matching the joint behaviour of unemployment the distribution of unemployment durations and wages are characterized the implication that the re employment prospects of employed workers were they to become unemployed are better than those of the currently unemployed appears to have been an important feature of european unemployment experience in the 1980 s this paper examines the effects of the composition of unemployment on wage determination it explores one central assumption when firms receive multiple acceptable applications they hire the worker who has been unemployed for the least amount of time we refer to this assumption as ranking and contrast it throughout to the assumption of random hiring or no ranking by embodying this assumption in a model of the labour market with job creation destruction and matching we characterize the joint behaviour of unemployment the distribution of unemployment durations and wages ranking has a number of important implications first in addition to the obvious result that the exit rate from unemployment is a decreasing function of duration we show that the effect of duration is stronger the higher the rate of unemployment second with the wage depending on the distributions of prospective unemployment durations the presence of long term unemployed per se has little effect on wages third looking at the relation between the wage and the aggregate level of unemployment and comparing ranking to the case of no ranking the wage moves less with the level of unemployment but more with the change in unemployment put simply ranking and no ranking models show exactly the same aggregate unemployment slightly different long run responses of wages to unemployment and sharply different wage dynamics the paper is organized as follows section i characterizes the matching process and derives a matching function based on an urn ball process with vacancies as urns and applications by unemployed workers as balls thus the distribution of applications per vacancy depends on aggregate unemployment and vacancies vacancies with at least one acceptable application are filled when a vacancy receives more than one acceptable application firms use a rule to choose among applicants thus the rule determines who is hired but does not affect the number of hires section ii uses this matching function in a model of the labour market with continual job creation and destruction and characterizes the equilibrium values of unemployment vacancies and hires

input and output inventories in general equilibrium we build and estimate a two sector goods and services dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with two types of inventories materials input inventories facilitate the production of nished goods while nished goods output inventories yield utility services the model is estimated using bayesian methods the estimated model replicates the volatility and cyclicality of inventory investment and inventory to target ratios although inventories are an important element of the model s propagation mechanism shocks to inventory e ciency or management are not an important source of business cycles when the model is estimated over two subperiods pre and post 1984 changes in the volatility of inventory shocks or in structural parameters associated with inventories such as the input inventory to output ratio play a small role in reducing the volatility of output

the impact of unionization on motor carrier costs i introduction the increasingly competitive markets fostered by the motor carrier act of 1980 have forced motor carriers to focus on cost saving strategies intended to reduce operating miles fuel consumption and capital and labor expenses there are two reasons unions firms may be at a competitive disadvantage in these efforts first although the union nonunion wage differential has decreased following regulatory reform rose 1987 and hirsch 1988 find that union firms still pay higher wages second managers of unionized firms may have less flexibility in the use of inputs since union work rules restrict the activities and substitutability of drivers terminal workers and terminal facilities indeed harrington 1987 reports that post 1980 trucking expenses are still 40 higher for unionized motor carriers than for nonunion firms unionization may affect carrier cost both by increasing the price of labor and by potentially affecting cost function parameters if union rules make labor less productive the entire cost function will shift upwards for a given set of factor input prices further freeman and medoff 1982 argue that work rules may be expected to result in reduced elasticities of substitution between labor and other inputs in the unionized setting indeed they find that substitution between production labor and other labor in manufacturing is generally lower in unionized settings the impact of unionization on production has been investigated in industries such as construction coal mining hospitals and the cement industry by allen 1984 1986a 1986b byrnes et al 1988 and clark 1980a 1980b the results have been inconclusive with unionized firms being more productive than nonunion firms in some instances and less productive in others studies such as allen 1986c and addison and hirsch 1989 have utilized production function methodologies that use restrictive functional forms which impose homogeneity and identical elasticities of substitution between pairs of inputs allen 1986c examines the relative efficiency of union and nonunion firms with a translog cost function allowing for union effects using intercept and slope parameters that vary by union status in his study of different types of construction projects he finds significant differences between the cost functions for union and nonunion firms but no evidence of the inelasticity of factor substitutions as hypothesized by medoff and freeman in fact his estimates of factor demand elasticities show no discernible pattern for union versus nonunion firms leading him to conclude that work rules do not have the anticipated impact on elasticity the purpose of this study is to test whether unionization impacts motor carrier costs and if so to determine the direction of the impact of particular interest is whether the work rules imposed by the teamster s union have had a significant impact on factor substitutability in unionized firms as argued by freeman and medoff 1982 friedlaender and spady 1981 daughety et al 1985 mcmullen and stanley 1988 grimm et al 1989 and ying s 1990 studies of motor carrier industry costs have used translog cost functions which implicitly assume that union and nonunion cost functions arise from the same production technology this is equivalent to accepting the hypothesis that unionization does not affect the production structure of motor carrier firms if unionization does affect a firm s production process the results from these studies could be biased accordingly this study uses a translog cost function to test for differences in the cost structure of union and nonunion carriers not only is the translog cost function standard in the motor carrier literature permitting comparison of these results with those of previous work it also allows the flexibility necessary to examine the differential impact of unions on cost function parameters and elasticities of substitution between factors

do unions contract for added employment the efficient contract model predicts unions will contract for added employment that is a level of employment higher than would be predicted by the demand curve for labor using three data sets on canadian industries in 1971 81 u s industries in 1972 and u s construction projects in 1973 74 and several estimation techniques the author estimates and compares labor demand equations for both union and nonunion firms some regressions that control for few variables support the added employment hypothesis but those with more complete specifications reject it