landlords versus tenants information asymmetry and mismatched preferences for home energy efficiency abstract new zealand homes are poorly insulated by international standards there are government subsidies available for people to improve the energy efficiency of their homes but uptake has been relatively low among owners of rental properties this paper presents the results of a choice experiment used to investigate the preferences of home owners and tenants for insulation and heating upgrades the responses indicate that landlords may underestimate how cold their rental properties are in winter considering the level of discomfort reported by tenants median willingness to pay wtp for improved insulation by landlords is only 50 70 of owner occupier values landlords are willing to pay more for a heating appliance than any other retrofit option in contrast tenants have a low wtp for the heating appliance and would prefer under floor insulation tenants express a willingness to pay higher rent in exchange for improved energy efficiency at a rate that would appear to make such upgrades economic for the landlord information asymmetry and lack of appropriate market signals may be a large part of the reason why many landlords are not willing to pay market prices for energy efficiency upgrades

asymmetric benchmarking in compensation executives are rewarded for good luck but not penalized for bad abstract principal agent theory suggests that a manager should be paid relative to a benchmark that removes the effect of market or sector performance on the firm s own performance recently it has been argued that such indexation is not observed in the data because executives can set pay in their own interests that is they can enjoy pay for luck as well as pay for performance we first show that this argument is incomplete the positive expected return on stock markets reflects compensation for bearing systematic risk if executives pay is tied to market movements they can only expect to receive the market determined return for risk bearing this argument however assumes that executive pay is tied to bad luck as well as to good luck if executives can truly influence the setting of their pay they will seek to have their performance benchmarked only when it is in their interest namely when the benchmark has fallen using industry benchmarks we find significantly less pay for luck when luck is down in which case pay for luck would reduce compensation than when it is up these empirical results are robust to a variety of alternative hypotheses and robustness checks and they suggest that the average executive loses 25 45 less pay from bad luck than is gained from good luck

economic analysis of upgrading aging residential buildings in china based on dynamic energy consumption and energy price in a market economy abstract this article employed a standard lcc to conduct economic analysis of upgrading the aging residential buildings in china according to the current situation an interest rate of 6 an inflation rate of 3 an increase rate of annual energy savings of 2 and an increase rate of electricity price of 2 were assumed in the method the results indicated that only relying on gradually increasing electricity price and governments subsidies was not enough after detailed analysis of the energy saving measures and the distribution of all benefits from building energy retrofit it was found that actually only 1 3 of original cost was spent only for energy savings the second 1 3 for both energy savings and good facade appearance and occupants should share the last 1 3 because even if without energy retrofit they would have to pay the part too the corresponding results proved that the first 1 3 of investment cost could be drawn back within the residue life cycle and so the investment could be accepted in a sheer market economy in the end a model about distribution of investment cost of and benefits was proposed to adapt the market economy to overcome the financial problems in china

heat savings and heat generation technologies modelling of residential investment behaviour with local health costs abstract the trade off between investing in energy savings and investing in individual heating technologies with high investment and low variable costs in single family houses is modelled for a number of building and consumer categories in denmark for each group the private economic cost of providing heating comfort is minimised the private solution may deviate from the socio economical optimal solution and we suggest changes to policy to incentivise the individuals to make choices more in line with the socio economic optimal mix of energy savings and technologies the households can combine their primary heating source with secondary heating e g a woodstove this choice results in increased indoor air pollution with fine particles causing health effects we integrate health cost due to use of woodstoves into household optimisation of heating expenditures the results show that due to a combination of low costs of primary fuel and low environmental performance of woodstoves today included health costs lead to decreased use of secondary heating overall the interdependence of heat generation technology and heat saving choice is significant the total optimal level of heat savings for private consumers decrease by 66 when all have the option to shift to the technology with lowest variable costs

economic analysis of energy saving renovation measures for urban existing residential buildings in china based on thermal simulation and site investigation abstract energy saving renovations of existing residential buildings have proven to be very helpful in alleviating the pressure of energy shortages and co 2 emission but an economic analysis of the measures by using a life cycle cost lcc method is very important and necessary to determine whether to implement them or not based on thermal simulation and site investigation the paper uses one urban existing residential building in hangzhou city of china as the subject building and analyzes the economic benefits from the energy saving renovation measures through the lcc method the findings clearly show that the investigation of the factual electricity consumption of the subject building is very important to predict accurately the energy saving effects and financial benefits of the measures for the building because of the great discrepancy between in fact and in thermal simulation of the heating and cool loads and the too cheap electricity price may hamper the development of energy saving implementations in residential sector in china

bank ceo pay performance relations and the effects of deregulation the authors test the deregulation hypothesis that posits that bank ceo compensation became more sensitive to performance as bank management became less regulated they observe a significant increase in pay performance sensitivities from their 1976 81 regulation subsample to their 1982 88 deregulation subsample these increases in pay sensitivities after deregulation are observed for salary and bonus stock options and common stock holdings the authors observe increases in the pay performance relation associated with high capitalization ratio banks consistent with providing incentives for wealth creation while even larger increases in pay performance sensitivity for lower capitalization ratio banks suggest an federal deposit insurance corporation moral hazard problem copyright 1995 by university of chicago press

beyond dsge models toward an empirically based macroeconomics david colander has been writing about economic methodology for over 30 years but he goes out of his way to emphasize that he does not see himself as a methodologist his pragmatic methodology is applicable to what economists are doing and attempts to answer questions that all economists face as they go about their work the articles collected in this volume are divided with the first part providing a framework underlying colander s methodology and introducing colander s methodology for economic policy within that framework part two presents colander s view on the methodology for microeconomics while part three looks at colander s methodology for macroeconomics the book closes with discussions of broader issues this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

belief disagreements and collateral constraints belief disagreements have been suggested as a major contributing factor to the recent subprime mortgage crisis this paper theoretically evaluates this hypothesis i assume that optimists have limited wealth and take on leverage so as to take positions in line with their beliefs to have a significant effect on asset prices they need to borrow from traders with pessimistic beliefs using loans collateralized by the asset itself since pessimists do not value the collateral as much as optimists do they are reluctant to lend which provides an endogenous constraint on optimists ability to borrow and to influence asset prices i demonstrate that the tightness of this constraint depends on the nature of belief disagreements optimism concerning the probability of downside states has no or little effect on asset prices because these types of optimism are disciplined by this constraint instead optimism concerning the relative probability of upside states could have significant effects on asset prices this asymmetric disciplining effect is robust to allowing for short selling because pessimists that borrow the asset face a similar endogenous constraint these results emphasize that what investors disagree about matters for asset prices to a greater extent than the level of disagreements when richer contracts are available relatively complex contracts that resemble some of the recent financial innovations in the mortgage market endogenously emerge to facilitate betting

modeling energy technology choices which investment analysis tools are appropriate abstract a variety of tools from modern investment theory appear to hold promise for unraveling observed energy technology investment behavior that often appears anomalous when analyzed using traditional investment analysis methods this paper reviews the assumptions and important insights of the investment theories most commonly suggested as candidates for explaining the apparent energy technology investment paradox the applicability of each theory is considered in the light of important aspects of energy technology investment problems such as sunk costs uncertainty and imperfect information the theories addressed include the capital asset pricing model the arbitrage pricing theory and the theory of irreversible investment enhanced net present value methods are also considered the relevance of the capital asset pricing model and the arbitrage pricing theory given the special characteristics of energy technology investment decisions appears limited to the value of the theories conceptual insights in contrast the theory of irreversible investment and enhanced net present value are found to provide more useful modeling and analysis methods each capable of providing important insights into the energy technology investment paradox

experimental evidence on the persistence of output and inflation this article presents experimental evidence from a monetary sticky price economy in which output and inflation depend on expected future inflation rational inflation expectations do not allow for persistent deviations of output and inflation following a monetary shock in the experimental sessions however output and inflation display considerable persistence and regular cyclical patterns

the economic impact of energy saving retrofits of residential and public buildings in croatia abstract the purpose of this paper is to estimunate the impact of energy saving investment in residential and public buildings in croatia for the period 2015 2020 the aim is to assess the overall socio economic impact of energy saving renovation measures defined in croatian strategic documents in terms of the direct indirect and induced growth of gross value added employment and government revenues an estimate of the avoided costs of air pollution is also included the overall economic impact assessment is based on an input output methodology from the point of view of individual investors the benefits in terms of reduced future expenses related to energy products are usually below energy efficient renovation investment costs making an investment financially viable only if government support is provided if the benefits for society as a whole are included energy efficient renovation could be assessed as viable even in the short run energy saving retrofits of residential and public buildings positively contribute to economic growth employment and protection of the environment because of economic growth the tax revenues induced by these investments could compensate for government expenditures and the overall impact on the public deficit is expected to be neutral even in the short run

ceo pay and appointments a market based explanation for recent trends ceos increased from an average of 700 000 in 1970 in 2002 constant dollars to over 2 2 million in 2000 1 during the same period the ratio of ceo cash compensation to average pay for production workers increased from about 25 in 1970 to nearly 90 in 2000 2 the most prevalent explanation in the popular press for this trend is the fat cat theory a variant of which has been espoused among academics by lucian bebchuk et al 2002 3 accord

economic potential of energy efficient retrofitting in the swiss residential building sector the effects of policy instruments and energy price expectations the aim of this paper is to analyse the profitability of energy efficient retrofit investments in the swiss residential building sector from the house owner s perspective different energy price expectations policy instruments such as subsidies income tax deduction and a carbon tax as well as potential future cost degression of energy efficiency measures were taken into account the discounted cash flow method was used for the investment analysis of different retrofit packages applied to a model building scheduled for renovation i e a single family house constructed between 1948 and 1975 the results show that present swiss policy instruments push investments for energy efficient retrofitting to profitability cost degression has a minor significance for investment profitability however the most relevant factor for the investment analysis is the expected energy price expecting a future fuel oil price at the level of 2005 efficiency investments are close to profitability even without policy support if higher energy prices were expected energy efficient retrofitting would be an attractive investment opportunity

explaining the energy efficiency gap expected utility theory versus cumulative prospect theory abstract energy efficiency is one of the key factors in mitigating the impact of climate change and preserving non renewable resources although environmental and economic justifications for energy efficiency investments are compelling there is a gap between the observable and some notion of optimized energy consumption the so called energy efficiency gap behavioral biases in individual decision making have been resonated by environmental research to explain this gap to analyze the influence of behavioral biases on decisions upon energy efficiency investments quantitatively we compare expected utility theory with cumulative prospect theory on basis of a real world example we illustrate how the extent of the gap is influenced by behavioral biases such as loss aversion probability weighting and framing our findings indicate that cumulative prospect theory offers possible explanations for many barriers discussed in literature for example the size of the gap rises with increased risk and investment costs because behavioral biases are systematic and pervasive our insights constitute a valuable quantitative basis for environmental policy measures such as customer focused and quantitatively backed public awareness campaigns financial incentives or energy savings insurances in this vein this paper may contribute to an accelerated adaption of energy efficiency measures by the broader public

animal spirits heterogeneous expectations and the amplification and duration of crises we introduce a simple equilibrium model of a market for loans households lend to firms and form expectations about their loan default probability under heterogeneous expectations with switching between forecasting strategies driven by reinforcement learning even a small fraction of pessimistic traders has a large aggregate effect causing a heterogeneous expectations risk premium i e significantly higher contract rates for loans and significantly lower output our stylized model illustrates how animal spirits and heterogeneous expectations may lead to aconfidence loss and to financial instability amplifying the magnitude of economic crises and slowing down recovery

intrinsic heterogeneity in expectation formation we introduce the concept of misspecification equilibrium to dynamic macroeconomics agents choose between a list of misspecified econometric models and base their selection on relative forecast performance a misspecification equilibrium is a stochastic process in which agents forecast optimally given their choices with forecast model parameters and predictor proportions endogenously determined under appropriate conditions the misspecification equilibrium will exhibit intrinsic heterogeneity in which all predictors are used at all times even in the neoclassical limit in which only the most successful predictors are used this equilibrium is attainable under least squares learning and dynamic predictor selection based on average profits

charts noise and fundamentals in the london foreign exchange market this paper presents some empirical evidence on the prevalence perceived importance and nature of chartist or technical analysis in the london foreign exchange market if noise traders see e g de long et al i987 are defined as those speculators who do not base their trading strategies on a consideration of market fundamentals then it clearly encompasses those traders who employ chart analysis i e those who base their strategies on the analysis and extrapolation of past price movements alone

evaluation of the impact of environmental public policy measures on energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in the french residential sector a cut in energy consumption by 2050 to reach 50 kwhpe m2 year and reduce ghg emissions by 75 are important objectives of environmental policy in france the residential sector represents a significant potential source of energy savings in this paper our main objective is to construct a simulation model and to evaluate the impact of environmental public policy measures we model energy consumption and ghg emissions the decision to invest in energy saving renovations and the dynamics of the housing stock particular attention is paid to household investment decisions regarding home renovation to generate the dynamics and the structure of the housing stock through 2050 we introduce socioeconomic variables that alter the number of renovations and new constructions this study has three major outputs first we estimate the energy consumption and ghg emissions of the residential sector in france through 2050 second we study the impact of environmental public policy measures lastly we propose different means to reach the objectives the results show that while current policies are effective they are not sufficient to reach the objectives

marginal costs and co benefits of energy efficiency investments the case of the swiss residential sector abstract key elements of present investment decision making regarding energy efficiency of new buildings and the refurbishment of existing buildings are the marginal costs of energy efficiency measures and incomplete knowledge of investors and architects about pricing co benefits and new technologies this paper reports on a recently completed empirical study for the swiss residential sector it empirically quantifies the marginal costs of energy efficiency investments i e additional insulation improved window systems ventilation and heating systems and architectural concepts for the private sector first results on the economic valuation of co benefits such as improved comfort of living improved indoor air quality better protection against external noise etc may amount to the same order of magnitude as the energy related benefits are given the cost benefit analysis includes newly developed technologies that show large variations in prices due to pioneer market pricing add on of learning costs and risk components of the installers based on new empirical data on the present cost situation and past techno economic progress the potential of future cost reduction was estimated applying the experience curve concept the paper shows for the first time co benefits and cost dynamics of energy efficiency investments of which decision makers in the real estate sector politics and administrations are scarcely aware

a robust rational route to randomness in a simple asset pricing model abstract we investigate asset pricing dynamics in an adaptive evolutionary asset pricing model with fundamentalists trend followers and a market maker agents can choose between a fundamentalist strategy at positive information cost or choose a trend following strategy for free price adjustment is proportional to the excess demand in the asset market agents asynchronously update their strategy according to realized net profits in the recent past as agents become more sensitive to differences in strategy performance the fundamental steady state becomes unstable and multiple steady states may arise as the traders sensitivity to differences in fitness increases a bifurcation route to chaos sets in due to homoclinic bifurcations of stable and unstable manifolds of the fundamental steady state

building energy efficiency a research branch made of paradoxes abstract the literature dealing with building energy efficiency has long since debated about the possible occurrence of the so called jevons paradox in a nutshell benefiting from energy savings due to transition to high performance buildings may the same savings cause a kind of rebound effect by acting as an incentive to increase consumptions on closer inspection this is not the only paradox affecting the research branch that focuses on the energy used by the buildings and the building industry a second paradox is that investments in energy efficient solutions may contribute to energy price control which in turn lends itself to make the same investments not profitable a third paradox lies in the need to adopt energy intensive materials in order to achieve substantial energy savings in operation hence sometimes we just substitute a certain amount of operating energy with a more or less commensurate amount of embodied energy here we argue that the joint consideration of the paradoxes mentioned above should not be neglected since it brings with itself several implications needing to be disentangled whether we aim to get further enhancements in this disciplinary field

an assessment of household electricity load curves and corresponding co2 marginal abatement cost curves for gujarat state india gujarat a large industrialized state in india consumed 67 twh of electricity in 2009 10 besides experiencing a 4 5 demand supply short fall residential sector accounted for 15 of the total electricity consumption we conducted load research survey across 21 cities and towns of the state to estimate residential electricity load curves share of appliances by type and usage patterns for all types of household appliances at utility geographic appliance income and end use levels the results indicate that a large scope exists for penetration of energy efficient devices in residential sector marginal abatement cost mac curves for electricity and co2 were generated to analyze relative attractiveness of energy efficient appliance options results indicate that up to 7 9 twh of electricity can be saved per year with 6 7 mt co2 emissions mitigation at negative or very low co2 prices of us 10 t co2 despite such options existing their penetration is not realized due to myriad barriers such as financial institutional or awareness and therefore cannot be taken as baseline options for co2 emission mitigation regimes

a new keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations abstract within a new keynesian model we incorporate bounded rationality at the individual agent level and we determine restrictions on expectations operators sufficient to imply aggregate is and as relations of the same functional form as those under rationality this result provides dual implications the strong nature of the restrictions required to achieve aggregation serve as a caution to researchers imposing heterogeneous expectations at an aggregate level may be ill advised on the other hand accepting the necessary restrictions provides for tractable analysis of expectations heterogeneity as an example we consider a case where a fraction of agents are rational and the remainder are adaptive and find specifications that are determinate under rationality may possess multiple equilibria in case of expectations heterogeneity

modelling energy savings in the danish building sector combined with internalisation of health related externalities in a heat and power system optimisation model abstract a substantial untapped energy saving potential rests in the building sector and is expected to play an important role in achieving reduction of environmental impacts of energy in order to utilise this potential effective policy measures need to be adopted to remove the existing barriers and create incentives for that purpose the cost effective energy saving options together with an optimal level of savings and expected environmental benefits have to be identified the paper reports on a study that analyses these questions by including heat saving measures in buildings into an energy system optimisation model of the danish heat and power sector the achieved optimal level of heat savings reaches 11 of projected heat demand in 2025 under the model assumptions moreover the analysis reveals the importance of considering energy conservation options in a system wide perspective furthermore the results suggest that changes in the energy generation sector are the prime driver behind the reduction of environmental externalities of energy heat savings in buildings play only a small role under model assumptions

zipf s law for cities an explanation zipf s law is a very tight constraint on the class of admissible models of local growth it says that for most countries the size distribution of cities strikingly fits a power law the number of cities with populations greater than s is proportional to 1 s suppose that at least in the upper tail all cities follow some proportional growth process this appears to be verified empirically this automatically leads their distribution to converge to zipf s law

value for money in energy efficiency retrofits in ireland grant provider and grant recipients abstractthe sustainable energy authority of ireland seai administers the better energy homes scheme to provide a financial incentive for home owners to engage in energy efficiency retrofits this study analyses data from the scheme and building energy rating data for participants to the scheme to examine the value for money achieved by households in addition this research identifies which retrofit combinations provide greatest value for money in terms of energy efficiency gains for the grant provider we utilize an error in variables approach to model the variation in benefits accruing to households of varying characteristics we find that household and grant provider surplus can be maximized in the short term by retrofitting less energy efficient and larger homes timber or steel frame homes and houses rather and apartments the types of retrofits leading to the greatest surplus for both household and grant provider include cavity wall insulation paired with either a boiler with heating controls or

tests of rational expectations in a stark setting the authors test the hypothesis that subjects forecasts in a stark experimental setting are not predictably different than the actual process generating the data the particular process that they use is a random walk forty subjects predict realizations of random walks chosen to be consistent with the actual process generating the data the authors find that they cannot predict subjects deviations from rational expectations of the process actually generating the data for about half of the subjects the authors cannot predict the forecast errors of about 90 percent of the subjects with information actually available to them coauthors are arlington w williams raymond c battalio and timothy i mason copyright 1993 by royal economic society

achieving affordable housing through energy efficiency strategy abstract cooperation between public and private sector has achieved a remarkable widespread in the italian context over the last two decades nevertheless the increasing difficulty in accessing the capital market and the rising cost of funding sources both noticeable over the past few years led to a slowdown of public private partnership ppp initiatives meanwhile the community is expressing new needs to be satisfied such as the conversion of brownfields the recovery of housing stock dating back to former times as well as the refurbishment of public offices or schools emerging priorities include the supply of affordable dwellings for low to medium income households this essay aims to examine a case study in which ppp and buildings energy efficiency have been successfully combined in order to jointly contribute to the achievement of a social housing settlement thanks to energy efficiency measures concerning building envelope insulation heating system and other installations the agreed rent results far higher than social rent of protected tenancies and furthermore above the range of fair rents characterising other regulated tenancies but mildly lower than market rents all this allows to achieve an equity yield rate satisfying from the perspective of a venture philanthropy investment

perspectives on implementing energy efficiency in existing swedish detached houses in this study we first analyse energy efficiency measures in existing electrically heated houses in sweden from a societal economic perspective measures to a house envelopes and to energy supply chains are evaluated through a system analysis approach and we include the external costs of climate change and the effect of different swedish climatic zones we find that in a typical house from the 1970s conversion from electric heating is highly motivated since the mitigation cost of conversion is lower than the estimated external costs of emitted co2 both conversions and house envelope measures are more motivated in the northern part of the country where there is a higher heat demand a successful implementation of changes requires them to be attractive for consumers to adopt we therefore secondly analyse the economic conditions for swedish house owners to implement societal economic cost efficient measures we include the economic influence of an investment subsidy for heating system conversion an income tax deduction for changing windows customer electricity tax real estate tax and of the cost of purchased energy from different energy suppliers apart from the economics several other factors affect a house owner s decision to change heating systems we therefore thirdly analyse house owners perceptions of different heating supply alternatives based on the results of two comprehensive questionnaires these different perspectives are combined in a discussion whether the studied policy instruments encourage house owners to implement changes in accordance with the energy efficiency goals of decision makers we find that the investment subsidy could be useful to break the lock in effect of resistance heaters which house owners seemed to experience the electricity tax makes heating systems in line with national goals more competitive and efficiency measures to the house envelope more profitable the reduction of the electricity tax in the northern part of the country has the opposite effect also the increase in real estate tax when implementing energy efficiency measures gives a contradictory message the price differences between energy suppliers has a larger impact on the house owners economic conditions than both subsidies and tax rate changes and possibly also affect the house owner s attitudes towards various systems

competitive lending with partial knowledge of loan repayment some positive and normative analysis we study a credit market where lenders with partial knowledge of repayment use one of several criteria to make lending decisions supposing that a public authority wants to maximize the social return to borrowing we study interventions that manipulate the return on the safe asset or guarantee a minimum loan return manipulating the return on the safe asset is effective if lender beliefs about the return to lending are not too pessimistic relative to those of the authority guaranteeing a minimum return is effective if lender beliefs are not too optimistic relative to those of the authority

market forces and ceo pay shocks to ceo demand induced by ipo waves i develop a simple competitive equilibrium model and derive the prediction that ceo pay size elasticity increases when more firms compete for an inelastic supply of managers using industry level ipo waves as a proxy for increased competition for ceos i find that pay size elasticity increases by 6 with a one standard deviation increase in ipo activity this effect is stronger in specialized industries in addition increased ipo activity leads to a greater likelihood of executive transitions between firms these findings indicate that market forces play a key role in the determination of ceo pay received august 6 2015 editorial decision september 24 2016 by editor francesca cornelli

heterogeneous expectations in monetary dsge models this paper derives a general new keynesian framework with heterogeneous expectations by explicitly solving the micro foundations underpinning the model the resulting reduced form is analytically tractable and encompasses the representative rational agent benchmark as a special case we specify a setup in which some agents as a result of cognitive limitations make mistakes when forecasting future macroeconomic variables and update their beliefs as new information becomes available while other agents have rational expectations we then address determinacy issues related to the use of different interest rate rules and derive policy implications for a monetary authority aiming at stabilizing the economy in a dynamic feedback system in which macroeconomic variables and heterogeneous expectations co evolve over time

experimental evidence on inflation expectation formation using laboratory experiments within a new keynesian sticky price framework we study the process of inflation expectation formation we focus on adaptive learning and rational expectations contrary to the previous literature that mostly studied simple heuristics using a test for rational expectations that allows heterogeneity of expectations we find that we cannot reject rationality for about 40 of subjects more than 20 of subjects are also best described by adaptive learning models where they behave like econometricians and update their model estimates every period however rather than using a single forecasting model switching between models describes their behavior better switching is more likely to occur when experimental economy is in a recession

managerial attributes and executive compensation we study the role of firm and manager specific heterogeneities in executive compensation we decompose the variation in executive compensation and find that time invariant firm and especially manager fixed effects explain a majority of the variation in executive pay we then show that in many settings it is important to include fixed effects to mitigate potential omitted variable bias furthermore we find that compensation fixed effects are significantly correlated with management styles i e manager fixed effects in corporate policies finally the method used in the article has a number of potential applications in financial economics the author 2011 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oup com oxford university press

learning in a credit economy abstract in this paper we analyze a credit economy a la kiyotaki and moore 1997 credit cycles journal of political economy 105 211 248 enriched with learning dynamics where both borrowers and lenders need to form expectations about the future price of the collateral we find that under homogeneous learning the msv ree for this economy is e stable and can be learned by agents but when heterogeneous learning is allowed and uncertainty in terms of a stochastic productivity is added expectations of lenders and borrowers can diverge and lead to bankruptcy default on the part of the borrowers

the energy efficiency gap what does it mean abstract as renewed attention has been given by policy makers to energy conservation issues it has frequently been asserted that an energy efficiency gap exists between actual and optimal energy use the critical questions is how to define the optimal level of energy efficiency this paper seeks to disentangle some confusing strands of argument that are frequently brought to bear on this question by identifying the major conceptual issues that determine the set of feasible answers we identify five separate and distinct notions of optimality the economists economic potential the technologists economic potential hypothetical potential the narrow social optimum and the true social optimum each of these has associated with it a corresponding definition of the energy efficiency gap our analysis demonstrates that necessary preconditions for identifying the right measure of the energy efficiency gap include understanding and disentangling market failure and non market failure explanations for the gradual diffusion of energy efficient technologies

modelling decisions on energy efficient renovations a review the buildings sector accounts for more than 30 of global greenhouse gas emissions despite the well known economic viability of many energy efficient renovation measures which offer great potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and meeting climate protection targets there is a relatively low level of implementation we performed a citation network analysis in order to identify papers at the research front and intellectual base on energy efficient renovation in four areas technical options understanding decisions incentive instruments and models and simulation the literature was reviewed in order to understand what is needed to sufficiently increase the number of domestic energy efficient renovations and to identify potential research gaps our findings show that the literature on energy efficient renovation gained considerable momentum in the last decade but lacks a deep understanding of the uncertainties surrounding economic aspects and non economic factors driving renovation decisions of homeowners the analysis indicates that the socio economic energy saving potential and profitability of energy efficient renovation measures is lower than generally expected it is suggested that this can be accounted for by the failure to understand and consider the underpinning influences of energy consuming behaviour in calculations homeowners decisions to renovate are shaped by an alliance of economic and non economic goals therefore existing incentives typically targeting the economic viability of measures have brought little success a deeper understanding of the decisions of homeowners is needed and we suggest that a simulation model which maps the decision making processes of homeowners may result in refining existing instruments or developing new innovative mechanisms to tackle the situation

information learning and expectations in an experimental model economy the experimental learning to forecast literature finds that subjects use simple linear backward looking models when forecasting in environments with little to no inout the economic framework we study the formation of expectations in a laboratory economy of monopolistic firms and labour unions with almost complete knowledge of the model we observe simple backward looking rules but also a considerable share of model based expectations using information on the economic structure at least for some subjects expectations are informed by theory as in the previous literature we find individual prediction rules to be heterogeneous

implications of rational inattention abstract a constraint that actions can depend on observations only through a communication channel with finite shannon capacity is shown to be able to play a role very similar to that of a signal extraction problem or an adjustment cost in standard control problems the resulting theory looks enough like familiar dynamic rational expectations theories to suggest that it might be useful and practical while the implications for policy are different enough to be interesting

expectational diversity in monetary economies abstract we investigate an overlapping generations monetary economy in which expectations depend upon backward looking predictors of the future price level we use discrete choice theory to model how agents select a predictor based on its past forecast error letting the number of available predictors tend to infinity we obtain the large type limit of the system taking the large type limit dramatically reduces the number of free parameters while maintaining the expectational diversity which we argue is necessary for constructing plausible learning based models the model s dynamics are strongly influenced by the intensity of choice which measures how sensitive an agent s predictor choice is to differences in forecast errors across predictors when the intensity of choice is low the monetary steady state is stable as the intensity of choice increases and if certain parametric restrictions are met the system undergoes a hopf bifurcation in which case we document the existence of highly irregular equilibrium price paths

monetary policy expectations and commitment commitment in monetary policy leads to equilibria that are superior to those from optimal discretionary policies a number of interest rate reaction functions and instrument rules have been proposed to implement or approximate commitment policy we assess these rules in terms of whether they lead to a rational expectations equilibrium that is both locally determinate and stable under adaptive learning by private agents a reaction function that appropriately depends explicitly on private sector expectations performs particularly well on both counts