prospect theory explains newsvendor behavior the role of reference points current understanding in operations management is that prospect theory as a theory of decision making under uncertainty cannot systematically explain the ordering behavior observed in experiments on the newsvendor problem we suggest this is because the newsvendor s reference point is assumed to be the status quo i e zero payoff we propose an alternative based on newsvendor s salient payoffs and show that prospect theory can in fact account for experimental results this paper was accepted by serguei netessine operations management

is tiger woods loss averse persistent bias in the face of experience competition and high stakes although experimental studies have documented systematic decision errors many leading scholars believe that experience competition and large stakes will reliably extinguish biases we test for the presence of a fundamental bias loss aversion in a high stakes context professional golfers performance on the pga tour golf provides a natural setting to test for loss aversion because golfers are rewarded for the total number of strokes they take during a tournament yet each individual hole has a salient reference point par we analyze over 2 5 million putts using precise laser measurements and find evidence that even the best golfers including tiger woods show evidence of loss aversion jel d03 d81 l83

robust stochastic discount factors when the market is incomplete a new non redundant derivative security cannot be priced by no arbitrage arguments alone moreover there will be a multiplicity of stochastic discount factors and each of them may give a different price for the new derivative security this paper develops an approach to the selection of a stochastic discount factor for pricing a new derivative security the approach is based on the idea that the price of a derivative security should not vary too much when the payoff of the primitive security is slightly perturbed i e the price of the derivative should be robust to model misspecification the paper develops two metrics of robustness the first is based on robustness in expectation the second is based on robustness in probability and draws on tools from the theory of large deviations we show that in a stochastic volatility model the two metrics yield analytically tractable bounds for the derivative price as the underlying stochastic volatility model is perturbed the bounds can be readily used for numerical examination of the sensitivity of the price of the derivative to model misspecification

consumer support for environmental policies an application to purchases of green cars this paper focuses on how consumer motivation can be tapped in order to encourage the adoption of cleaner technologies consumers are heterogeneous they may be guided by intrinsic motivation or extrinsic motivation while information provision policies such as the energy label for cars may be effective in encouraging certain consumers to adopt green cars financial incentive schemes such as subsidies or fines may be more persuasive for extrinsically motivated consumers we develop a dynamic theory of adoption of environmental innovations in which information provision policies are followed by financial incentives first carrot then stick incentives analysis of a survey dataset of swiss households observes considerable heterogeneity in terms of support of information provision or financial incentive policies in line with our conjectures our results will be of particular interest to policymakers interested in guiding consumers towards cleaner technologies

buying votes vs supplying public services political incentives to under invest in pro poor policies this paper uses unique survey data to provide for the first time in the literature direct evidence that vote buying in poor economies is associated with lower provision of public services that disproportionately benefit the poor various features of the data and the institutional context allow the interpretation of this correlation as the equilibrium policy consequence of clientelist politics ruling out alternate explanations such as for example poverty driving both vote buying and health outcomes the data come from the philippines a country context that allows for measuring vote buying during elections and services delivered by the administrative unit controlled by winners of those elections the data reveal a significant robust negative correlation between vote buying and the delivery of primary health services in places where households report more vote buying government records show that municipalities invest less in basic health services for mothers and children and quite strikingly as a summary measure of weak service delivery performance a higher percentage of children are severely under weight

incentive policies from 2006 to 2016 and new energy vehicle adoption in 2010 2020 in china abstract new energy vehicle nev development is key to reducing vehicle pollutant emissions conserving fuel oil energy and sustaining both the automotive industry and the transportation industry of a country china is now ranked first in terms of nev adoption policies are the main driving force this paper aims to uncover how policies systematically link together to provide support direct rapid development regulate various players to cope with the challenges and achieve an impressive progress in nev adoption in china we propose a policy dependency mapping method which enables us to analyze 175 nev policies from national jing jin ji regional beijing tianjin and hebei from january 2006 to april 2016 with adoption targets projected from 2016 to 2020 our research reveals that the nev policies constitute complex policy systems involving governments at various levels with multiple purposes the national policies direct local policies and depend upon local policies to implement and meet the decomposed targets whereas regional policies horizontally coordinate the provincial governments and solve issues across provincial boundaries local policies play a key role in implementing the national and regional policies and address different local challenges such as traffic congestion and local economy development the nev policy systems are dynamic and nev adoption in local areas is uneven the public sector is the first breakthrough to promote nev adoption followed by a demonstration in the private sector beijing takes the lead in terms of both ev adoption and policymaking challenges in local protectionism technology advancement with subsidies phasing out and subsidies fraud are discussed these findings help both policy makers and nev players to understand the nev development roadmap and create better strategies to promote nevs in the future

an evaluation of government incentives for new energy vehicles in china focusing on vehicle purchasing restrictions abstract in order to reduce carbon emissions and urban smog the chinese government has instituted a number of policies to promote the diffusion of new energy vehicles nevs achieving remarkable results this paper aims to quantify the effectiveness of various policies after reviewing and quantifying the policies directly related to the sales and driving of nevs in the past five years we established a multivariate co integration model and an error correction model to analyse the long and short term effects of these policies the results demonstrate positive co integration for the relationship between the nev market share and the nev purchase subsidy tax exemption the policy of restricting internal combustion engine vehicle icev purchase and the abolishment of traffic restrictions for nevs china s unique policy of restricting icevs has in fact promoted nev sales by adjusting the supply and demand to influence the consumers choices finally we found technology to still be a bottleneck factor in the nev industry and technological progress s effect on nev diffusion is greater than the economic subsidy policy therefore this study suggests that the funds being made available from the gradual reduction of the purchase subsidy should be transferred to research and development

an overview of energy efficiency standards in china s transport sector abstract china s transport sector is facing severe energy and environmental challenges establishing energy efficiency standards is an essential measure to cope with these challenges this paper comprehensively reviews the energy efficiency standards in china s road water aviation railway and pipeline transport sectors based on the review it is suggested that 1 the integrity of policy framework should be further improved energy efficiency standards based market access qualification mechanism is quite necessary for all transport sectors especially the aviation railway and pipeline transport sectors where such mechanism is absent 2 efforts for improving energy efficiency should be balanced among different transport sectors priority should be determined by considering each sector s energy consumption the cost and potential of energy efficiency improvement etc especially the major energy consuming sectors such as heavy duty vehicles should have similar priority to passenger vehicles in the overall energy efficiency improvement scheme 3 the scientific basis for the energy efficiency standards should be enhanced policies should be proposed with full considerations of china s context rather than borrowing the experiences of developed countries intelligence from the research community should be incorporated to ensure the rationality of the policies

investments and public finance in a green low carbon economy abstract the paper evaluates the impacts on investments and public finance of a transition to a green low carbon economy induced by carbon taxation four global tax scenarios are examined using the integrated assessment model witch taxes are levied on all greenhouse gases ghgs and lead to global ghg concentrations equal to 680 560 500 and 460 ppm co 2 eq in 2100 investments in the power sector increase with respect to the reference scenario only with the two highest taxes investments in energy related r d increase in all tax scenarios but they are a small fraction of gdp investments in oil upstream decline in all scenarios as a result total investments decline with respect to the reference scenario carbon tax revenues are high in absolute terms and as share of gdp with high carbon taxes tax revenues follow a carbon laffer curve the model assumes that tax revenues are flawlessly recycled lump sum into the economy in all scenarios the power sector becomes a net recipient of subsidies to support the absorption of ghgs in some regions with high carbon taxes subsidies to ghg removal are higher than tax revenues at the end of the century

modelling electric vehicle usage intentions an empirical study in malaysia in the new global economy carbon emission has become an important worldwide issue one key reason for this is the magnification of the transport sector as millions of gasoline based vehicles are plying on roads producing carbon emission throughout day and night in order to impede these vulnerabilities and promote a more sustainable economy one solution is to switch from gasoline based vehicles to using green technology vehicles there is growing agreement that electrification and the ability to decarbonize this sector seems to be significant as it helps to mitigate the high reliance on fossil fuels and reduce carbon emissions the introduction of electric vehicles has led the automotive industry to a whole new echelon one with zero fuel dependency and increased fuel efficiency while the usage of greener and cleaner vehicles such as electric vehicles is well supported with government policies and programmes it is surprising that little information is divulged about the public acceptance of electric vehicles from the social perspective public acceptance and diffusion of this new green technology is relatively fresh and unknown in malaysia in fact public acceptance can appear as a prevailing obstacle for market diffusion and encumber the development of technology adoption the rationale of this paper is to conduct an exploration to determine the key predictors affecting the usage of electric vehicles acceptance in malaysia malaysia has been referred to here as electric vehicles are just being introduced as one of the initiatives to encourage a low fossil carbon technology within the transportation sector more specifically an empirical study using a survey questionnaire was distributed to 1000 private vehicle drivers in malaysia an electric vehicle usage model was proposed based on a literature review and a multiple regression model the results demonstrated that electric vehicles acceptance in malaysia can be explained as being significantly related to social influences performance attributes financial benefits environmental concerns demographics infrastructure readiness and government interventions in addition the study offers a valuable wealth of information on the public acceptance of automotive players planning to market electric vehicles in malaysia it also offers sensible guidelines for the formulation of marketing strategies that will address the real wants and needs of future electric vehicles users in the meanwhile policy makers should concentrate on the appropriate intervention and policy to encourage the development of electric vehicles as part of the strategy towards a transition to a low carbon society in malaysia

on the recoverability of preferences and beliefs we examine the extent to which an investor s tastes and beliefs can be jointly recovered from knowledge of his her consumption choice more precisely we assume that the investor s preferences admit an expected utility representation but with subjective unknown probabilities and investigate what joint restrictions can be placed on utility functions and beliefs if the investor draws utility from intertemporal consumption we show that the set of utility functions and beliefs that are consistent with a given consumption choice can be characterized by a martingale condition in the markovian case this characterization can be restated in terms of a riccati differential equation that must be satisfied by the investor s relative risk aversion function to each solution of this differential equation is associated a unique utility function and a unique set of beliefs supporting the given consumption choice moreover we show that the differential equation has at most one solution in the class of utility functions displaying infinite absolute risk aversion at the origin thus preferences and associated beliefs can be uniquely recovered within this class article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

the impact of government policy on preference for nevs the evidence from china to reduce gasoline consumption and emissions the chinese government has introduced a series of preferential policies to encourage the purchase of new energy vehicles nevs however enthusiasm for the private purchase of nevs appears to be very low this timely paper addresses the need for an empirical study to explore this phenomenon by identifying purchase motivations of potential nev consumers and examining the impact of government policies introduced to promote nevs in china a questionnaire survey was carried out the acceptance of nevs is measured in three different logistic models the willingness of consumers to purchase nevs the purchasing time and the acceptable price the results showed that financial benefits performance attributes environmental awareness and psychological needs are the four most important factors influencing consumers acceptance of nevs among these performance attributes rather than financial benefits are the most important indicator the moderating effect of government policies to relations between purchasing intention time and price is not strong as respected while the policy implications are clear that the public awareness of government policy functions as a moderator in the process of acceptance these findings could give some hints to the government to make better nev industry policy

information characteristics and errors in expectations experimental evidence we design an experiment to test the hypothesis that in violation of bayes rule some people respond more forcefully to the strength of information than to its weight we provide incentives to motivate effort use naturally occurring information and control for risk attitude we find that the strength weight bias affects expectations but that its magnitude is significantly lower than originally reported controls for non linear utility further reduce the bias our results suggest that incentive compatibility and controls for risk attitude considerably affect inferences on errors in expectations

clientelism as persuasion buying evidence from latin america in distributing clientelistic payoffs to citizens the best strategy a party machine can pursue we argue is to target citizens who are opinion leading epicenters in informal conversation networks this persuasion buying strategy carries the highest potential yield for the party because the payoff can create a social multiplier the effect of the clientelistic gift can be magnified via the conversion of multiple voters within a payoff recipient s personal networks using cross sectional survey data from 22 latin american countries and a panel survey from mexico we confirm that individuals who engage in frequent political persuasion and who are located in large political discussion networks are the most likely recipients of clientelistic payoffs we also show that a finding that is key to previous theories namely that loyal partisans are the most likely targets of clientelism is driven by omitted variable and endogeneity bias

going green does it depend on education gender or income sustainable development entails meeting our present needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs this requires us to treat economic social and environmental aspects in an integrated way but little is known about the nature of individual preferences towards the trade offs involved in this effort for the first time we study individual preferences towards the environment social well being and financial well being by using a survey of over 1400 households in the netherlands using nonparametric parametric and matching methods we find that gender and education are important factors for sustainability rather than income levels moreover results indicate that educated females put the greatest value on going green whilst being socially minded

the development of new energy vehicles for a sustainable future a review with the rapid growing number of automobiles new energy vehicle is becoming one of approaches to mitigate the dependence of the auto industry on petroleum so as to reduce pollutant emissions the chinese government has promulgated a number of policies from the perspectives of industrial development development plans demonstration projects fiscal subsidies and tax incentives with an aim to promote the new energy vehicle industry this paper presents a comprehensive and critical review of the policy framework for new energy vehicles the analysis shows that electric vehicle has been assigned a top priority in the future development of the automobile industry in china policy guidance and planning has played a vital role to the growth of new energy vehicle industry however this industry faces significant challenges related to technologies industrial chain and social factors some core technologies are still in its infancy similarly the market share of new energy vehicles is very small in spite of the preferential policies the construction of supporting facilities and infrastructures has to be accelerated in order to accommodate the growing demands there is a long way to go for the industrialization and popularization of new energy vehicles in china

would protectionism defuse global imbalances and spur economic activity a scenario analysis abstract in the evolving debate and analysis of global imbalances a commonly overlooked issue pertains to rising protectionism this paper attempts to fill that gap examining the macroeconomic implications of trade policy changes through the lens of a dynamic general equilibrium model of the world economy encompassing four regional blocs simulation exercises are carried out to consider the imposition of uniform and discriminatory tariffs on trading partners as well as the case of tariff retaliation we also discuss a scenario in which a globalization backlash lowers the degree of competition in import competing sectors and compare the implications of higher markups in the product and labor markets

ipo post issue markets questionable predilections but diligent learners there appear to be no anomalies in the aftermarket of a sample of 4 848 u s ipos over the period 1975 to 1995 except issues offered below 6 risk is priced in the aftermarket in accordance with rubin stein s asset pricing model unlike under the efficient markets hypothesis emh however market priors about the probability of future default are not unbiased at the ipo date still subsequent learning is rational the market uses bayes law with a correct likelihood function of news given the eventual fate of an issue that is the hypothesis of an efficiently learning market elm cannot be rejected we produce direct evidence in support of these statements based on a new class of tests we also provide indirect evidence by documenting a gradual convergence of ipo prices towards emh as issues mature

interfuel substitution in us electricity generation ongoing changes in the us electricity market include restructuring and increased competition with this unfettering of the market the fuel choice in generation is expected to become more flexible and responsive to investigate this hypothesis studies of us electricity fuel choices over the last three decades are summarized and the most recent analysis is provided on a market very different from the one on which earlier studies were done modern data handling techniques allow the consideration of the most comprehensive database including 185 utilities on monthly data for 1993 this paper finds fuel choice to show a considerable amount of price responsiveness the amount of responsiveness is sensitive to the fuel substitution possibilities within the utility and the amount of responsiveness seems to have increased recently for oil and natural gas

statistical arbitrage and securities prices this article introduces the concept of a statistical arbitrage opportunity sao in a finite horizon economy a sao is a zero cost trading strategy for which i the expected payoff is positive and ii the conditional expected payoff in each final state of the economy is nonnegative unlike a pure arbitrage opportunity a sao can have negative payoffs provided that the average payoff in each final state is nonnegative if the pricing kernel in the economy is path independent then no saos can exist furthermore ruling out saos imposes a novel martingale type restriction on the dynamics of securities prices the important properties of the restriction are that it 1 is model free in the sense that it requires no parametric assumptions about the true equilibrium model 2 can be tested in samples affected by selection biases such as the peso problem and 3 continues to hold when investors beliefs are mistaken the article argues that one can use the new restriction to empirically resolve the joint hypothesis problem present in the traditional tests of the efficient market hypothesis in a fairly general environment this article proposes a novel martingaletype restriction on the dynamics of securities prices this restriction has a number of important properties most notably the restriction may be viewed as model free because it requires no parametric assumptions about the true equilibrium model to derive the restriction we rely on the concept of statistical arbitrage a generalization of pure arbitrage a pure arbitrage opportunity pao is a zero cost trading strategy that offers the possibility of a gain with no possibility of a loss as is well known the existence of paos is incompatible with a competitive equilibrium in asset markets the fundamental theorem of the financial theory establishes a link between the absence of paos and the existence of a positive pricing kernel which supports securities prices while the absence of paos is a necessary condition for any equilibrium model this condition alone often yields pricing implications that are too weak to be practically useful for example when valuing options in incomplete markets the no arbitrage bounds on option prices are typically very wide to strengthen pricing implications several recent articles

multiattribute utility analysis for policy selection and financing for the preservation of the forest in this paper we examine effective policies for financing and activities for the preservation of the forest on mount ryuoh in the city of higashi hiroshima by multiattribute utility analysis in multiattribute utility analysis we deal with decision making problems with multiple attributes and select the most effective solution among several alternatives by deriving preference of the decision maker although in our decision making problem the decision maker is a representative of a hypothetical nonprofit organization established for the preservation of the forest the decision maker gives serious consideration to intentions of several groups of people receiving the benefit from the mountain and then from this viewpoint our problem can be interpreted as a group decision making problem

price stability with imperfect financial integration this paper studies whether the international monetary system can be affected by asymmetries in the cross country positions in the international financial markets i e the fact that some countries are large debtors while others are creditors an important channel that is explored is the interaction between international risk sharing and the stabilization role of monetary policy in each country the main finding is that the welfare costs of incomplete markets and the gains of deviating from a policy of price stability are increasing with the cross country asymmetries in the initial net international positions and in particular they become nonnegligible when the persistence of the shocks increases 1 of a permanent shift in steady state consumption for the welfare costs of incomplete markets and 0 2 for the gains of deviating from a policy of price stability when global imbalances become larger optimal monetary policy requires an increase in the volatilities of the real returns on assets and in particular of the nominal interest rates which should happen to be more correlated across countries

the role of subnational politicians in distributive politics political bias in venezuela s land reform under chavez this article examines how the partisanship of empowered subnational politicians can affect within district benefit distribution i present a theory of the role of subnational politicians in distributive politics and then test this theory on a distributive venezuelan land reform initiative by leveraging unique individual level data on revealed voter preferences and the receipt of particularistic benefits using data from a list of millions of voters who signed petitions to recall former president chavez i match information on recent land grant applicants to petition signers to measure how political preferences affect the likelihood of applying for and receiving land and how state governors condition this relationship i find evidence for both strategic core voter targeting and blockage of benefits to opposition voters these effects however are modified by the political affiliation of governors the findings point to the importance of considering how intervening subnational politicians influence distr

subsidy scheme or price discount scheme mass adoption of electric vehicles under different market structures abstract this paper analyzes the electric and gasoline vehicle market under two different structures monopoly and duopoly taking social welfare into account the government offers a subsidy incentive scheme or a price discount incentive scheme to buyers of electric vehicles evs to promote the adoption of evs we formulate a utility model composed of a population of consumers who make utility maximizing choices and manufacturers who set an optimal pricing that responds to the interventions of the government using this model a framework for policy makers to find optimal subsidies or optimal price discount rates is developed unlike the monotonic relation in the monopoly setting in the duopoly setting the relationship between consumers low carbon awareness and evs demand depends on the government s policy although the demand for evs the consumer surplus the environmental impact and the social welfare are identical under two incentive schemes the government prefers to implement a subsidy incentive scheme due to the lower expenditure involved furthermore under a subsidy incentive scheme evs market in the monopoly setting has a smaller environmental impact than that in the duopoly setting from the numerical tests we show that results of social welfare comparison under two market structures depends on unit environmental impact of ev

who is more rational we report on the results of a large scale field experiment that enables us to test for consistency with utility maximizing behavior and to investigate the correlation between individual behavior and demographic and economic characteristics we conducted the experiment with the centerpanel a representative sample of over 2 000 dutch households using procedures similar to those used by choi et al 2007b in a setting with risk we find a high level of consistency in the individual level decisions there is also considerable heterogeneity in subjects consistency scores high income and high education subjects display greater levels of consistency men are more consistent than women and young subjects are more consistent than those who

cumulative prospect theory option returns and the variance premium the variance premium and the pricing of out of the money otm equity index options are major challenges to standard asset pricing models we develop a tractable equilibrium model with cumulative prospect theory cpt preferences that can overcome both challenges the key insight is that the variance premium can be written as the expected return on a portfolio of otm call and put options and the probability weighting feature of cpt can explain the puzzlingly low returns observed for these options using gmm on a sample of u s index option returns between 1996 and 2010 we show that the cpt model ts well observed option prices and therefore the variance premium in a dynamic setting probability weighting and time varying equity return volatility combine to match the observed time series pattern of the variance premium

exposing corrupt politicians the effects of brazil s publicly released audits on electoral outcomes author s finan frederico ferraz claudio abstract this paper examines the extent to which access to information enhances political accountability based upon the results of brazil s recent anti corruption program that randomly audits municipal expenditures of federally transferred funds it estimates the effect of the disclosure of local government corruption practices upon the re election success of incumbent mayors in municipal elections comparing municipalities which were randomly audited before the elections with those audited after the analysis shows that the disclosure of audit results had a significant impact on the re election rates of mayors found to be corrupt for a one standard deviation increase in reported corruption the audit policy reduced the incumbent s likelihood of re election by 25 percent this effect is more pronounced in municipalities where radio stations are present and higher levels of corruption are identified these findings highlight the value of information and the role of the media in reducing informational asymmetries in the political process thus enabling voters to not only hold corrupt politicians accountable but also to reward non corrupt politicians

impact of experience on government policy toward acceptance of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in korea abstract as the low carbon green growth agenda which emphasized sustainable development through equilibrium between economic growth and environmental preservation is propagated rapidly in korea despite this progress it is not uncommon for new products made through advanced technologies such as hydrogen fuel cell vehicles to face public skepticism preventing market penetration therefore the factors impacting customer acceptance of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have to be estimated furthermore it is necessary to examine whether or not the policies related to these products can prevent public skepticism regarding them this empirical study examining the relationship between personal experiences related to the policy and acceptance of the innovative products of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles shows that government involvement in technology targeting and promotions administered by the low carbon green growth agenda rarely stimulate potential customers purchase intentions thus technology targeting administered by the low carbon green growth agenda needs to be reconciled with customer responses to the future market

a simulation model for reliability based appraisal of an energy policy the case of lebanon abstract the lebanese electric power system leps has been suffering from technical and financial deficiencies for decades and mirrors the problems encountered in many developing countries suffering from inadequate or no power systems planning resulting in incomplete and ill operating infrastructure and suffering from effects of political instability huge debts unavailability of financing desired projects and inefficiency in operation the upgrade and development of the system necessitate the adoption of a comprehensive energy policy that introduces solutions to a diversity of problems addressing the technical financial administrative and governance aspects of the system in this paper an energy policy for lebanon is proposed and evaluated based on integration between energy modeling and financial modeling the paper utilizes the load modification technique lmt as a probabilistic tool to assess the impact of policy implementation on energy production overall cost technical commercial losses and reliability scenarios reflecting implementation of policy projects are assessed and their impacts are compared with business as usual scenarios which assume no new investment is to take place in the sector conclusions are drawn on the usefulness of the proposed evaluation methodology and the effectiveness of the adopted energy policy for lebanon and other developing countries suffering from similar power system problems

energy status in lebanon and electricity generation reform plan based on cost and pollution optimization abstract this paper presents a review of the energy status conventional and renewable in lebanon and illustrates their problems with the suggested recommendations in addition a detailed review of the principal directorates of the electricity of lebanon company edl is also presented all along with the existing problems and recommended solutions an economic environmental optimization of different power sources is studied where three scenarios are introduced based on the fuel source of different ccgt power plants the results emphasized on the maximum possible use of wind energy and natural gas in electricity generation based on the optimization study a five year master plan for electricity generation is modeled the suggested plan has an investment capital cost of 5553 m with the savings and additional incomes being 5900 m compared to edl financial status in the adopted base year 2009 in addition this plan exceeds the trend to introduce a 12 share of renewable energy in the power sector by 2020 where the share is supposed to be about 15 out of the total installed capacity before this date the concluding remarks highlight the role of politics in the development of the energy sector

the effect of policy incentives on electric vehicle adoption in order to increase the attractiveness of electric vehicles evs packages of policy incentives are provided in many countries however it is still unclear how effective different policy incenti

measuring abnormal performance do stocks overreact abstract a highly controversial issue in financial economies is whether stocks overreact in this paper we find an economically important overreaction effect even after adjusting for size and beta in portfolios formed on the basis of prior five year returns extreme prior losers outperform extreme prior winners by 5 10 per year during the subsequent five years although we find a pronounced january seasonal our evidence suggests that the overreaction effect is distinct from tax loss selling effects interestingly the overreaction effect is substantially stronger for smaller firms than for larger firms returns consistent with the overeaction hypothesis are also observed for short windows around quarterly earnings announcements

optimal electric vehicle production strategy under subsidy and battery recycling abstract government subsidy and battery recycling are two common practical issues in the electric vehicle ev market this study investigates a loss averse ev manufacturer s optimal production strategy under uncertain market demand in the presence of both government subsidy and battery recycling an analytical model is built and related optimal solution and numerical experiments are provided results indicate that increased subsidy promotes the manufacturer s optimal production quantity and expected utility increased battery recycling rate promotes the manufacturer s optimal production quantity however the manufacturer s expected utility decreases with the battery recycling rate if the optimal production quantity is sufficiently small this result implies that the manufacturer may prefer a relatively small battery recycling rate when the market scale is small consequently the government should establish regulations to promote battery recycling for environmental protection we find that either subsidy or battery recycling can offset the negative effects of loss aversion on the optimal production quantity and expected utility the majority of our results still hold if we consider multiple repurposing options for used batteries or an alternative subsidy mechanism in particular the manufacturer s optimal production quantity and expected utility are higher under cost subsidy mechanism than under consumer subsidy mechanism

purchasing intentions of chinese citizens on new energy vehicles how should one respond to current preferential policy in recent years china s environmental pollution and energy security issues have become increasingly more prominent as a result new energy vehicles nevs have been strongly supported by government s policy privilege but at this stage these preferential policies are facing updates and adjustments to meet the current development of nev industry and consumer demand of purchase this means that an understanding of the nev purchasing behavior in china what the current policy is and how to respond to its adjustment are of theoretical and practical significance for china s nev industry to this end a reliable scale is developed in this study to investigate the situation in seven chinese geographical regions and 22 provinces based on application of an extended theory of planned behavior model to the real situation a structural equation model is used to analyze the factors affecting the nev purchasing intentions of residents the results show that financial benefits infrastructure readiness environmental concerns and policy privileges have a positive impact on purchasing intention however the nev s cruising range does not based on the paper s findings we have discussed whether current subsidies and preferential policies reflect consumers potential purchase demand how to make subsidies more tangibly targeted and thereby present some proposals for manufacturing strategy under the influence of policy and demand of consumers

transforming shortcomings into opportunities can market incentives solve lebanon s energy crisis abstract over the past decades lebanon s energy sector has been largely ignored and this has led to high economic and environmental costs the sector is characterized by electricity poverty an expanding and mainly unregulated transport sector and a lack of energy savings spanning through all sectors of the economy recently the government of lebanon has committed to increase the share of renewable energy to 10 of the total energy supply by 2013 and to 12 by the year 2020 it also aims at reducing energy consumption by 6 by the year 2013 this paper aims at contributing to the formulation of a more comprehensive energy strategy for lebanon by analyzing the recent changes in policy direction and by recommending legal regulatory and policy measures in order to transform current shortcomings into opportunities allowing the country to become a regional success story in the deployment of renewable energy and energy efficiency

gain loss and asset pricing we develop an approach to asset pricing in incomplete markets that bridges the gap between the two fundamental approaches in finance model based pricing and pricing by no arbitrage we strengthen the absence of arbtrage assumption by precluding investment opportunities whose attractiveness to a benchmark investor exceeds a specified threshold in our framework the attractiveness of an investment opportunity is measured by the gain loss ratio we show that a restriction on the maximum gain loss ratio is equivalent to a restriction on the ratio of the maximum to minimum values of the pricing kernel by limiting the maximum gainloss ratio we can restrict the admissible set of pricing kernels which in turn allows us to restrict the set of prices that can be assigned to assets we illustrate our methodology by computing price bounds for call options in a black scholes economy without intermediate trading when we vary the maximum permitted gainloss ratio these bounds can range from the exact prices implie

cross country differences in the effects of oil shocks abstract we compare the macroeconomic consequences of several types of oil shocks across a set of industrialized countries that are structurally very diverse with respect to the role of oil and other forms of energy in the economy the results crucially depend on the underlying source of the oil price shift when a rise in oil prices is caused by increased global economic activity or a rise in oil specific demand almost all countries experience respectively a temporary increase and transitory decline of real gdp the role of oil and other forms of energy cannot explain the differences in the effects of both shocks across countries in contrast this role is very important to explain asymmetries in the effects of exogenous oil supply shocks whereas net oil and energy importing countries typically face a permanent fall in economic activity the impact is insignificant or even positive in net energy exporting countries in addition countries that improved their net energy position the most over time became less vulnerable to oil supply shocks relative to other countries

the political economy of government responsiveness theory and evidence from india the determinants of government responsiveness to its citizens is a key issue in political economy here we develop a model based on the solution of political agency problems having a more informed an politically active electorate strengthens incentives for governments to be responsive this suggests that there is a role both for democratic institutions and the mass media in ensuring that the preferences of citizens are reflected in policy the ideas behind the model are tested on panel data from india we show that public food distribution and calamity relief expenditure are greater controlling for shocks where governments face greater electoral accountability and where newspaper circulation is highest

the distributive politics of enforcement why do some politicians tolerate the violation of the law in contexts where the poor are the primary violators of property laws i argue that the answer lies in the electoral costs of enforcement enforcement can decrease support from poor voters even while it generates support among nonpoor voters using an original data set on unlicensed street vending and enforcement operations at the subcity district level in three latin american capital cities i show that the combination of voter demographics and electoral rules explains enforcement supported by qualitative interviews these findings suggest how the intentional nonenforcement of law or forbearance can be an electoral strategy dominant theories based on state capacity poorly explain the results

joint production and pricing decisions with setup costs and capacity constraints we consider the problem of setting prices and choosing production quantities for a single product over a finite horizon for a capacity constrained manufacturer facing price sensitive demands there is a fixed cost per production run and a variable cost per unit produced both of which may vary by period we characterize properties of the optimal solution considering cases with constant and time varying capacity and with and without speculative motive for holding inventory we show that counter to intuition optimal prices may increase as the capacity increases even when capacity is constant over the horizon we also show that increases in capacity do not always exhibit diminishing marginal returns our procedure produces solutions with much higher profits than can be obtained from a sophisticated sequential procedure in which a well informed and optimum seeking marketing department makes pricing decisions and the manufacturing department seeks to satisfy the resulting demands at minimum cost our results also suggest that firms with seasonal demand and tight capacity constraints should be more aggressive in setting prices to manage their demands than what is typically done in practice finally we discuss how a decision maker can use our procedure as an aid in solving multiproduct versions of the problem

when parties meet voters assessing political linkages through partisan networks and distributive expectations in argentina and chile this article provides a new comparative methodology for the study of party voter linkages from the perspective of voters where the critical question that distinguishes clientelistic from programmatic parties is access to publicly provided benefits in the former case partisan networks mediate access to goods in the latter beneficiaries are defined by policy and access is independent from partisan distribution networks we show that these different access mechanisms shape voters distributive expectations and the nature of their linkages to political parties by developing a unique methodology to measure party networks we test it using original survey data from argentina and chile and show variation both across and within countries on party voter linkages based on differential access to benefits and parties organizational capacity

the countervailing effects of competition on public goods provision when bargaining inefficiencies lead to bad outcomes political competition is widely recognized as a mediator of public goods provision through its salutary effect on incumbents electoral incentives we argue that political competition additionally mediates public goods provision by reducing the efficiency of legislative bargaining these countervailing forces may produce a net negative effect in places with weak parties and low transparency typical of many young democracies we provide evidence of a robust negative relationship between political competition and local public goods using panel data from mali tests of mechanisms corroborate our interpretation of this relationship as evidence of legislative bargaining inefficiencies to explore the generalizability of these findings we analyze cross country panel data and show that political competition leads to better worse public goods provision under high low levels of party system institutionalization the paper sheds light on why political competition is only selectively beneficial and underscores the importance of considering both the electoral and legislative arenas

differential interpretation of information in inflation forecasts we test the hypothesis associated with a standard assumption in the theoretical literature on learning that economic agents interpret information identically we use a data set based on a survey o

neoclassical theory versus prospect theory evidence from the marketplace several experimental studies have provided evidence that suggest indifference curves have a kink around the current endowment level these results which clearly contradict closely held economic doctrines have led some influential commentators to call for an entirely new economic paradigm to displace conventional neoclassical theory e g prospect theory which invokes psychological effects this paper pits neoclassical theory against prospect theory by investigating data drawn from more than 375 subjects actively participating in a well functioning marketplace the pattern of results suggests that prospect theory adequately organizes behavior among inexperienced consumers but consumers with intense market experience behave largely in accordance with neoclassical predictions moreover the data are consistent with the notion that consumers learn to overcome the endowment effect in situations beyond specific problems they have previously encountered this transference of behavior across domains has important implications in both a positive and normative sense

expectations and learning in iowa we study the rationality of learning and the biases in expectations in the iowa experimental markets using novel tests developed in bossaerts p 1996 martingale restrictions on equilibrium security prices under rational expectations and consistent beliefs caltech working paper bossaerts p 1997 the dynamics of equity prices in fallible markets caltech working paper learning in the iowa winner take all markets is found to be in accordance with the rules of conditional probability bayes law hence participants correctly update their beliefs using the available information there is evidence however that beliefs do not satisfy the restrictions of rational expectations that they reflect the factual distribution of outcomes

the electoral benefits of unemployment clientelism and distributive politics abstract we show that in the month prior to the 2003 argentine presidential election the expenditures of an argentine poverty relief program exhibit a partisan bias taking into consideration the number of potential recipients the unemployed with children 18 years old or less the counties that were ideologically against the incumbent received a disproportionately large amount of the spending hence instead of targeting swing or core districts as established in the distributive politics literature in argentina the incumbent targeted opposition strongholds to identify these effects and to classify districts into swing core and opposition ones we exploit the 2001 crises in argentina in particular we use the 2001 political discontent that led to 15 of blank and null votes to estimate swing districts finally we also show that this tactical spending had an electoral purpose in counties where it was arguably cheaper to monitor the recipients voting behavior the spending was significantly larger in return the clientelist exchange took place in districts with greater spending and monitoring thus the politicians incentives to design an appropriate poverty relief program may be at odds with their electoral motivation

increasing electric vehicle policy efficiency and effectiveness by reducing mainstream market bias abstract plug in electric vehicles pevs provide an opportunity for reducing energy use and emissions in the transportation sector currently a number of federal policies are in place to incentivize deployment of pevs to mainstream consumers with demographics and vehicle attribute preferences most common to today s new vehicle purchasers this article argues that policies intending to give pevs a foothold in the market should not focus on mainstream consumers and should instead focus on niche markets specifically carsharing and postal fleets and early adopters including green consumers two arguments can be made in support of eliminating the mainstream market bias of current policies toward a policy of cultivating niche markets the first is efficiency so far pev policies featuring a mainstream market bias have proven to be inefficient and costly the second is effectiveness it is becoming increasingly evident that pev policies would be more effective in achieving potential societal benefits if they focused on early adopters and niche markets using such approaches as strategic niche management accessible loans and financing and appropriately targeted incentives pev policies focused on early adopters and niche markets would create complementary system effects that will lead to increased pev market penetration and realization of intended societal benefits

green fuel tax on private transportation services and subsidies to electric energy a model based assessment for the main european countries abstract this paper evaluates the environmental and macroeconomic implications for france germany italy and spain of taxing motor vehicle fuels for private transportation a sector not subject to the emissions trading system so as to reduce taxes on electricity consumption and increase subsidies to renewable sources of electricity generation the assessment is based on a dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated for each of the four countries the results suggest that the measures posited will reduce carbon dioxide emissions in the transportation sector and favor the development of electricity generation from renewable sources thus limiting the growth of emissions from electricity generation the measures do not jeopardize economic activity the results are robust whether implementation is unilateral in one country or simultaneous throughout the eu

reference dependent electric vehicle production strategy considering subsidies and consumer trade offs abstract in this paper we extend previous reference dependence newsvendor research by incorporating both consumer trade offs and government subsidies to evaluate the relevant influences on the optimal electric vehicle ev production decisions we present the properties of the model derive the closed form solutions for the model given the relevant constraints and use numerical experiments to illustrate the results we find that subsidies loss aversion the performance of both evs and internal combustion engine powered vehicles icevs and the coefficient of variation of demand are significant factors influencing the optimal production quantity and the expected utilities of ev production the high selling price and other high costs of icevs help offset the influence of loss aversion whereas the high costs of ev enhance loss aversion our study enriches the literature on subsidies for evs by establishing a behavioral model to incorporate the decision bias in terms of loss aversion at the firm level these findings provide guiding principles for both policymakers and ev managers for making better strategies to promote evs in the early immature market

consumers evaluation of national new energy vehicle policy in china an analysis based on a four paradigm model abstract the chinese government has issued numerous policies to promote the development and adoption of new energy vehicles nevs to address the problem of excessive energy consumption and environmental pollution in this study we divided these policies into seven categories macroscopic demonstration subsidization preferential tax technical support industry management and infrastructure since consumers opinions affect the policy choices of government based on questionnaire data we use a four paradigm model to analyze the consumers evaluation of each policy in terms of perceptions of importance and satisfaction the results show that macroscopic policies are perceived to be of high importance and satisfaction whereas for industry management policies they are perceived to be of low importance and satisfaction the importance perceptions of preferential tax and demonstration policies are low whereas perceptions of their satisfaction are high perceptions of the importance of subsidization technical support and infrastructure policies are high whereas perceptions of their satisfaction are low we find that the subsidization technical support and infrastructure policies need urgent improvement finally we put forward several suggestions to improve the current policies and increase the consumers intention to adopt nevs

kaya identity for analysis of the main drivers of ghg emissions and feasibility to implement eu 20 20 20 targets in the baltic states abstract the kaya identity relates the greenhouse gas ghg emissions to energy use economic growth and population growth therefore it can be applied to decompose ghg emissions with respect to the latter terms european union eu has established the main targets of sustainable energy development in energy and climate package 20 20 20 eu member states conformed to achieve in 2020 ghg emission reduction by 20 comparing with year 1990 level to achieve 20 of renewable energy sources res in final energy consumption and to reduce energy intensity by 20 compared to year 2005 level as all of these targets are interrelated and have to be achieved together it is very important to track the changes of ghg emissions in eu member states alongside the changes in energy intensity and increase in the share of renewables in final energy consumption the kaya identity and decomposition analysis allow the linking of changes in ghg emissions to changes in energy intensity and carbon intensity of energy which directly reflects the increase of the share of renewables in final energy consumption the impact of gdp growth on ghg emissions is also assessed by kaya identity the paper applies a novel approach in tracking progress achieved in implementing 20 20 20 targets by employing kaya identity and shapley value for decomposition analysis the conducted analysis showed that policies to increase energy efficiency are the most important drivers of ghg emission reduction and achieving eu 20 20 20 targets in baltic states though the share of res has increased significantly in baltic states its impact on ghg emissions reduction per capita in baltic states was insignificant therefore more emphasis on energy efficiency policies is necessary as they are the most effective measures for achieving ghg emission reduction targets

a policy utility dislocation model based on prospect theory a case study of promoting policies with low carbon lifestyle abstract a low carbon lifestyle is an inevitable choice for mitigating climate change however in the actual situation where policy makers and policy target groups are separated from each other low carbon lifestyle changes are often manifested as individual strong government actions behind which social actions are seriously lagging based on this observation in this study a concept of policy utility dislocation was developed and a policy utility dislocation model was constructed based on prospect theory numerical simulation showed that policy utility dislocation can be reduced by increasing the proportion of residents environmental benefits government efforts and subsidies and reducing the cost of implementing a low carbon lifestyle for residents in particular when the environmental benefits of the government and residents accounted for 15 and 65 respectively or the subsidy coefficient was 2 the policy utility dislocation became zero in addition policy utility dislocation began to appear when the cost of implementing a low carbon lifestyle exceeded 3 this study enriches the connotation of policy utility and quantifies the policy utility dislocation and provides new ways to launch policies that promote low carbon lifestyles

beyond the machine clientelist brokers and interest organizations in latin america organizational membership is one of the strongest yet overlooked predictors of vote buying across latin america we argue that this relationship is driven by the fact that politicians outsource some of their vote buying efforts to interest associations in contrast to the existing literature that focuses on party brokers who are loyal to a single political machine we introduce the concepts of organizational brokers who represent interest associations and renegotiate ties to political parties between election cycles and hybrid brokers who split their loyalties between an interest association and a single political party we illustrate the operation of these alternative broker types through case studies of street vending organizations in an uninstitutionalized party system colombia and peasant organizations in an institutionalized party system mexico attention to the role of brokers and the organizations that they represent has implications for political accountability collective action and the

deal or no deal decision making under risk in a large payoff game show we examine the risky choices of contestants in the popular tv game show deal or no deal and related classroom experiments contrary to the traditional view of expected utility theory the choices can be explained in large part by previous outcomes experienced during the game risk aversion decreases after earlier expectations have been shattered by unfavorable outcomes or surpassed by favorable outcomes our results point to reference dependent choice theories such as prospect theory and suggest that path dependence is relevant even when the choice problems are simple and well defined and when large real monetary amounts are at stake

who delivers partisan clients in the argentine electoral market why do some parties fail to benefit from patronage in pork ridden political systems this article analyzes the interaction between patronage and partisanship to explain why some incumbents are more likely to benefit from pork politics than others we explain such differences by focusing on political parties access to resources supply side and voters dependence on fiscal largesse demand side we show how these differences affect the patron s choice of public sector wages and employment we use subnational level data to show different electoral returns from patronage for the two major political coalitions in argentina peronism and the ucr alianza and their effect on preferences over public sector wages and employment w hy do some political parties fail to benefit from patronage in pork ridden political systems this article analyzes the interaction between patronage and partisanship to explain why some incumbents are more likely to benefit from pork politics than others we explain returns to patronage by highlighting differences in the political parties access to resources supply side and the voter s dependence on public sector jobs demand side we propose that just as political parties cater their policies to particular groups of voters they pursue different strategies when allocating pork in exchange for support on the supply side we highlight the importance of partisan biases in the fiscal and electoral institutions that regulate the access and distribution of public resources on the demand side we show that patronage is a distributive mechanism that provides different returns to voters with different skills and labor market expectations

government control or low carbon lifestyle analysis and application of a novel selective constrained energy saving and emission reduction dynamic evolution system abstract this paper explores a novel selective constrained energy saving and emission reduction eser dynamic evolution system analyzing the impact of cost of conserved energy cce government control low carbon lifestyle and investment in new technology of eser on energy intensity and economic growth based on artificial neural network the quantitative coefficients of the actual system are identified taking the real situation in china for instance an empirical study is undertaken by adjusting the parameters of the actual system the dynamic evolution behavior of energy intensity and economic growth in reality are observed with the results in perfect agreement with actual situation the research shows that the introduction of cce into eser system will have certain restrictive effect on energy intensity in the earlier period however with the further development of the actual system carbon emissions could be better controlled and energy intensity would decline in the long run the impacts of cce on economic growth are positive government control and low carbon lifestyle play a decisive role in controlling eser system and declining energy intensity but the influence of government control on economic growth should be considered at the same time and the controlling effect of low carbon lifestyle on energy intensity should be strengthened gradually while the investment in new technology of eser can be neglected two different cases of eser are proposed after a comprehensive analysis the relations between variables and constraint conditions in the eser system are harmonized remarkably a better solution to carry out eser is put forward at last with numerical simulations being carried out to demonstrate the results

intrinsic variability in group and individual decision making the paper examines the random preference model which can explain inherent variability of preferences in managerial and individual decision making and provides axiomatizations for the utility components of two such models differentiated by the structure of core preferences expected utility eu and betweenness like preferences we then examine the possibility of violations of weak stochastic transitivity for these models and for a model with core dual eu preferences such violations correspond to the existence of condorcet cycles and therefore the analysis has implications for managerial decision making and for majority rule voting the paper also investigates implications of its findings for two popular experimental settings this paper was accepted by james smith decision analysis

what wins votes why some politicians opt out of clientelism in a context where clientelism is widespread why do some politicians choose not to condition the delivery of goods and services to citizens on individual political behavior i argue that the answer to this question lies in the heretofore unexamined electoral costs of clientelism clientelism decreases support from nonpoor constituents even while it generates votes from among the poor taking into account these costs and other factors that shape politician incentives i posit that the interaction between political competition and poverty will explain variation in clientelism i test this claim using an original measure of clientelism that assesses mayoral involvement in social policy implementation in argentine municipalities the results of statistical analysis suggest that high levels of political competition are compatible with clientelism when poverty is also high only when high competition is coupled with low rates of poverty does clientelism decline

brand dilution and the breakdown of political parties in latin america why would a national political party that has been competitive for decades collapse overnight in recent years parties across latin america went from being major contenders for executive office to electoral irrelevance over the course of a single electoral cycle the author develops an explanation that highlights the impact of elite actions on voter behavior during the 1980s and 1990s leaders across the region implemented policies that were inconsistent with their traditional party brand provoked internal party conflicts and formed strange bedfellow alliances with traditional rivals these actions diluted the brands of their parties eroding voters partisan attachments without the assured support of partisans parties become more susceptible to retrospective voting voters who now had no party attachments deserted incumbent parties when they performed poorly the author tests this interactive hypothesis using matched comparisons of six party election cases from argentina and venezuela

beyond arbitrage good deal asset price bounds in incomplete markets one often wants to value a risky payoff by reference to prices of other assets rather than by exploiting full fledged economic models however this approach breaks down if one cannot find a perfect replicating portfolio we impose weak economic restriction to derive usefully tight bounds on asset prices in this situation the bounds assume that investors would want to buy assets with high sharpe ratios good deals as well as pure arbitrage opportunities we show how to calculate the price bounds in one period multiperiod and continuous time contexts we show that the multiperiod problem can be solved recursively as a sequence of one period problems we calculate bounds in option pricing examples including infrequent trading and an option written on a nontraded event and we use the bounds to explore the economic significance of option pricing predictions we find that much variation in s p 500 index option prices over time and across strike prices fits within the bounds

coherence causality and effectiveness of the eu environmental policy system results of complementary statistical and econometric analyses this paper presents the first empirical test of coherence i e consistency of policies within a framework causality i e logical priority of objectives over policies and effectiveness i e ability of policies to tackle challenges as defined by objectives of the overall eu environmental policy system to do so i applied complementary statistical cross sectional and time series and econometric dynamic tri probit analyses to an original panel dataset based on addressed issues i e pollution vs resource trans boundary vs domestic flow vs stock rather than on implemented policies i e eu legislation aiming at optimal pollution production optimal resource use and market competition it would be impossible to perform similar analyses by referring to realized policies rather than tackled issues due to the unbalanced sample characterizing the former with respect to the latter as well as due to overlapping objectives interrelated policies and non univocal relationships between objectives and policies in contrast with previous studies of single eu environmental policies characteristics of the eu environmental policy or eu environmental objectives i found that the overall eu environmental policy system is internally coherent dynamically causal and ex ante effective moreover the evidence suggests that many issues are correlated trans boundary issues became more relevant in 2012 pollution production was more significant than resource use and flow issues were more important than stock issues from 1995 to 2010 finally i show that few objectives overlapped a safe environment objective 1987 1997 was preferred to a greenhouse gas ghg reduction objective 2003 2012 but pursued with a 2 year lag although the latter has recently become preferred to the former in addition a ghg reduction objective was preferred to a sustainable development objective 1998 2002

consumers perceptions and misperceptions of energy costs this paper presents three initial stylized facts from the vehicle ownership and alternatives survey voas a nationally representative survey that elicits consumers beliefs about gasoline prices and the relative energy costs of autos with different fuel economy ratings first american consumers devote little attention to fuel costs when purchasing autos second consistent with a cognitive bias called mpg illusion consumers underestimate the fuel cost differences between low mpg vehicles and overestimate the differences between high mpg vehicles third americans mean and median expected future gas prices were above current prices and predictions of the futures market at the time of the survey although it is often argued that misperceived energy costs justify policies to encourage the sale of energy efficient durable goods these results show that misperceptions and expectations that differ from market information could either increase or decrease energy efficiency

the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in lebanon this paper investigates the dynamic causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in lebanon over the period 1980 2009 within a bivariate framework imposed on us due to data limitations and in an effort to increase the robustness of our results we employ a variety of causality tests namely hsiao toda yamamoto and vector error correction based granger causality tests we find strong evidence of a bidirectional relationship both in the short run and in the long run indicating that energy is a limiting factor to economic growth in lebanon from a policy perspective the confirmation of the feedback hypothesis warns against the use of policy instruments geared towards restricting energy consumption as these may lead to adverse effects on economic growth consequently there is a pressing need to revise the current national energy policy that calls for a 5 energy conservation target also to shield the country from external supply shocks given its substantial dependence on energy imports policymakers should emphasize the development of domestic energy resources further the most pertinent implication is that relaxing the present electric capacity shortages should be made a national priority in view of its potential positive effect on the economy

from government to market and from producer to consumer transition of policy mix towards clean mobility in china abstract this paper proposes a new typology that classifies innovation policy instruments into two dimensions government selection versus market selection and producer orientation versus consumer orientation such a typology articulates the importance of consumer behavior in the policy design for a transition and the relevance for the market to select target subjects of policy during the deployment stage of clean technology innovation we apply this typology to policy instruments of china s new energy vehicle nev industry between 1991 and 2015 in order to explain the industry s rapid growth the focus of china s policy mix has transited from government selection to market selection and from producer orientation to consumer orientation other than the new typology this paper traces the entire history of policy transition within china s nev industry and finds the transition to be a result of policy learning thus contributing to future empirical studies of this industry

loss aversion under prospect theory a parameter free measurement agrowing body of qualitative evidence shows that loss aversion a phenomenon formalized in prospect theory can explain a variety of field and experimental data quantifications of loss aversion are however hindered by the absence of a general preference based method to elicit the utility for gains and losses simultaneously this paper proposes such a method and uses it to measure loss aversion in an experimental study without making any parametric assumptions thus it is the first to obtain a parameter free elicitation of prospect theory s utility function on the whole domain our method also provides an efficient way to elicit utility midpoints which are important in axiomatizations of utility several definitions of loss aversion have been put forward in the literature according to most definitions we find strong evidence of loss aversion at both the aggregate and the individual level the degree of loss aversion varies with the definition used which underlines the need for a commonly accepted definition of loss aversion