incentive effects of the u s welfare system a review the author would like to acknowledge support for prior work on this topic from the u s department of health and human services and helpful comments from three anonymous referees rebecca blank howard chernick john fitzgerald irwin garfinkel peter gottschalk edward gramlich david greenberg judith gueron james heckman v joseph hotz robert hutchens michael keane frank levy larry mead michael murray robert plotnick anuradha rangarajan philip robins howard rolston jeffrey smith and daniel weinberg all opinions and errors are those of the author alone

the impact of domestic trade on china s regional energy uses a multi regional input output modeling to systematically reveal how domestic trade impacts on china s regional energy uses an interprovincial input output modeling is carried out to address demand derived energy requirements for the regional economies in 2007 based on the recently available data both the energy uses embodied in final demand and interregional trade are investigated from the regional and sectoral insights significant net transfers of embodied energy flows are identified from the central and western areas to the eastern area via interregional trade shanxi is the largest energy producer and interregional embodied energy deficit receiver in contrast to guangdong as the largest energy user and surplus receiver by considering the impacts of interregional trade the energy uses of most eastern regions increase remarkably for instance shanghai hainan zhejiang beijing jiangsu and guangdong have their embodied energy requirements 87 49 19 97 13 64 12 60 6 46 and 6 38 times of their direct energy inputs respectively in contrast the embodied energy uses of some central and western regions such as inner mongolia shanxi xinjiang shaanxi and guizhou decrease largely the results help understand the hidden network linkages of interregional embodied energy flows and provide critical insight to amend china s current end reduction oriented energy policies by addressing the problem of regional responsibility transfer

welfare benefits and female headship in u s time series whether welfare benefits affect marriage and fertility decisions of the low income population has been the subject of much research the substantial bias in the u s welfare system toward female headed families relative to either married couples or single childless individuals provides a clear financial incentive for early nonmarital childbearing postponement of marriage divorce postponement of remarriage and other behaviors that make eligibility for welfare benefits more likely or that avoid the loss of eligibility after it has been achieved the findings in the cross sectional research literature through 1995 summarized in moffitt 1998 exhibit a clear central tendency pointing toward an effect of welfare on some aspects of family structure namely marriage and fertility however there is also agreement that the time series evidence is inconsistent with that from crosssectional data for real benefits have been falling for over 20 years while female headship has been rising moreover bringing other programs such as food stamps and medicaid into the picture helps explain rising female headship increases in the late 1960 s and early 1970 s when those programs were introduced and solidified but does less well in explaining the

value added content of trade a comprehensive approach abstract this letter provides an approach to decompose the value added content of trade into foreign and domestic components when intermediates are traded the measure adds to the existing literature by considering both exports and imports simultaneously in this way this approach generalizes the commonly applied vertical specialization measures based on exports only which are encompassed

a patchwork safety net a survey of cliometric studies of income maintenance programs in the united states in the first half of the twentieth century social welfare programs in the usa are designed to serve as safety nets for people in hard times in contrast with the universal approach found in many other developed western nations in a survey of cliometric studies of social welfare programs in the usa we examine the variation in the safety net in the usa across states in the 20th century the determinants of the variation and its impact on socioeconomic outcomes the usa has always displayed substantial variation in the extent of the safety net because the features of most public social welfare programs have been and currently are determined by local and state governments even after the federal government became involved in the 1930s differences across states persist strongly for typically a decade although the persistence weakens with time and there are some periods when federal intervention led to a re ordering the rankings of state benefits differ from program to program and economic and political factors have different weights in determining benefit levels in panel data estimation of their effects variation in benefits across programs during the early 1900s had significant impact on labour markets economic activity family formation death rates and crime copyright 2010 blackwell publishing ltd

does welfare play any role in female headship decisions abstract previous studies have examined whether the welfare system has contributed to the dramatic increase in single parent families this paper explores why the results in this literature are sensitive to the presence of state fixed effects it considers one natural explanation namely that the composition of the population differs across states in ways that are related to welfare program generosity after controlling for individual effects the results provide no evidence that welfare raises the propensity to form female headed households for either whites or blacks these results illustrate the potential pitfalls of assuming that state factors are fixed over a long period of time they also suggest that previous studies may have overstated the effect of welfare programs on family structure

who produces for whom in the world economy la part du commerce en produits intermediaires dans le commerce international appele aussi commerce vertical n a cesse d augmenter depuis vingt ans cet article propose une nouvelle mesure du commerce international le commerce en valeur ajoutee qui re alloue les flux commerciaux aux pays et aux secteurs produisant les intrants en 2004 le commerce vertical represente 27 du commerce total les repartitions geographique et sectorielle du commerce en valeur ajoutee sont tres differentes de celles du commerce standard la difference entre le commerce en valeur ajoutee et le commerce standard est plus importante dans le cas du commerce regional mais ce n est pas plus le cas en asie qu en amerique

the american welfare system and family structure an historical perspective cross sectional studies find a positive relationship between a state s welfare benefits and single motherhood but is this evidence of a welfare effect or rather of cross state differences in social attitudes that influence both policy and behavior this paper demonstrates that the spatial variation in welfare policy long preceded the spatial correlation of policy and behavior undermining the social norm hypothesis but the findings also raise doubts about the role that welfare policy played in the changes in family structure over the century the correlation between welfare benefits and family structure only appears in 1970 and then only for whites

understanding young women s marriage decisions the role of labor and marriage market conditions using the 1970 1980 1990 censuses the authors investigate the impact of labor and marriage market conditions on the incidence of marriage of young women age 16 24 they first estimate the effects on marriage of personal characteristics and metropolitan statistical area msa indicators separately by race and education group they then regress the first stage msa effects on msa level labor and marriage market conditions and welfare benefits taking account of fixed effects and time trends specific to each msa better female labor markets worse female marriage markets worse male labor markets are found to lower marriage rates fr whites in all education groups results for these variables for blacks are sensitive to estimation technique although stronger results are obtained for an older age group 25 34 while welfare benefits have a negative effect in cross sectional analyses the association becomes considerably weaker in fixed effects specifications

the demand for welfare generosity this paper estimates economic models of the determinants of state benefit levels in the aid to families with dependent children afdc program using 1969 1992 data these models have been extensively researched however the existing literature has produced an unacceptably wide range of estimates using alternative econometric procedures this paper systematically examines both the specification assumptions underlying previous analyses as well as several additional specification issues it is therefore able to replicate and reconcile estimates from previous studies and to provide updated consensus estimates of the demand for welfare generosity it finds that changes in the average level of income within states have small but statistically significant positive effects on benefits with the confidence bounds on the elasticity extending from 0 11 to 0 82 changes in the effective price of redistribution are found to have at most weak negative effects with elasticities in the range of 0 14 to 0 02 these results are used to evaluate the effects of block grant provisions in the recently enacted welfare reform legislation

federalizing benefits the introduction of supplemental security income and the size of the safety net abstract in 1974 supplemental security income ssi federalized cash welfare programs for the elderly blind and individuals with disabilities imposing a national minimum benefit and differentially raising payment levels in states that paid below its benefit floor we show that this increased disability participation but shrank non disability cash transfer programs for every four new ssi recipients three came from other welfare programs each dollar of per capita ssi income increased total per capita transfer income by just over 50 cents federalizing part of a patchwork safety net need not increase redistribution by as much as traditional models of fiscal federalism suggest

energy use embodied in china s construction industry a multi regional input output analysis abstract the rapid urbanization process was bound to produce considerable energy demand in china which increased the pressure on sustainable development this study employed a multi regional input output model to investigate energy use embodied in the consumption and interregional trade of china s construction industry results show that as a typical demand driven sector the construction industry consumed 793 74 million tons of coal equivalent in 2007 which is equal to 29 6 of china s total national energy consumption regions have been divided according to different driving forces for energy increment shanxi liaoning heilongjiang henan and sichuan were identified to be driven by their extensive construction activities and inefficient construction process interregional imports of the construction industry represented a resource dependent geographical distribution energy flows are from resource abundant areas in the central part to resource deficient areas in the eastern coast by contrast energy exports represented a regional discrete distribution which mainly transferred energy in the form of labor mobility and service supply this study provided insight into the current energy consumption status of provincial construction industry from both regional and sectoral perspectives which can be a basis for energy policy making and implementation

welfare effects on female headship with area effects the existing literature on welfare effects on female headship in the united states shows significant positive correlations in cross section possibly increasing over time however when geographic or area effects are permitted in the estimation these correlations either disappear or reverse in sign the results have implications for the study of welfare effects in other countries including canada where benefits vary considerably across provinces and localities within them

a non cooperative bargaining model with strategically timed offers abstract rubinstein s alternating offers bargaining model is enriched by allowing players to choose when and whether or not to make an offer time is continuous and players make offers whenever they wish it is assumed that upon making an offer players must wait a fixed amount of time before making another it is shown that if players can react arbitrarily quickly to their opponent s offers then all subgame perfect equilibrium outcomes are rubinstein like in particular efficient however if it takes time to react then some delay can be supported this potential delay becomes arbitrarily large as reaction times increase journal of economic literature classification numbers c78 c72

an overview of the driving forces behind energy demand in china s construction industry evidence from 1990 to 2012 abstract the rapid urbanization in china has produced a large demand for energy in the past decades it is therefore urgent to have an understanding of the driving forces behind the energy increase in the construction industry this study applies structural decomposition analysis sda to quantify the effects of driving factors from insight into consumption and production the results show that the energy consumption trajectory of china s construction industry is the result of competition between the effect of increasing final demand and improvement in energy efficiency although the effect of consistent efforts in structure optimization by the central government was significant from 2007 to 2012 the potential to save much energy still lies in structure optimization in energy production and final demand according to the projection structural upgrades in economy would be the most important factor for energy reduction in 2020 scenario analysis further indicated that the percentage change of energy increments in 2020 can be reduced at 22 of 2010 level under the optimistic scenario sector aggregation analysis revealed that more aggregates would increase uncertainty to some extent and result in a misinterpretation of the importance of the underlying factors according to the quantitative analysis in this study the percentage change of total embodied energy consumption in the construction industry should be limited below 25 of 2010 level at the end of the 13th five year plan

bargaining with durable offers and endogenous timing abstract the timing structure of a bargaining game is crucial in the static bargaining model of j nash 1953 econometrica 21 128 140 any division of the surplus is a possible equilibrium in the alternating offer model of a rubinstein 1982 econometrica 50 97 109 there is a unique subgame perfect nash equilibrium spne this paper takes a step toward endogenizing the timing of offers by expanding the strategy space to include the duration of the offer and permitting but not imposing simultaneous moves we find that virtually any division is a possible spne whenever simultaneous accept reject decisions are permitted

marital status and fertility in the united states welfare and labor market effects the incidence of marriage and the proportion of childbearing that occurs within marriage have decreased sharply in the united states in the last several decades this paper examines whether the probability that a woman is currently married and the number of children she has borne as reported in the 1980 u s census are related to two identifiable factors the variation in welfare programs across states specifically afdc and medicaid benefits and afdc up expenditures or the variation in the market wage opportunities available to women and to their potential husbands afdc and medicaid benefit levels are associated with fewer women being currently married medicaid benefits are related to lower fertility levels for both black and white women whereas afdc benefits in cash and food are associated with lower fertility among white women ages 15 24 those states that extend afdc benefits to families with unemployed parents in other words fathers in intact poor families do not have significantly more women married or higher fertility rates contrary to what might be expected from economic incentives men s market wages are associated with more frequent marriage and higher fertility whereas higher market wage opportunities for women have substantial effects in the opposite direction all of which are consistent with standard models of gender specialization and the demand for marriage and fertility

virtual carbon and water flows embodied in international trade a review on consumption based analysis in the globalised world greenhouse gas ghg emissions and water consumption are becoming increasingly important indicators for policy and decision making development of footprint assessment techniques over the last decade has provided a set of tools for monitoring co2 emissions and water flows in the world an overview of the virtual co2 emissions and virtual water flow trends in the international trade based on consumption perspective is performed in the current work the review of the recent literature indicates that 1 producers and consumers are located at various places in different parts of the world and consequently they are significant differences in virtual ghg greenhouse gases emissions 2 the us and the eu have high absolute net co2 imports 3 china and some other fast developing countries as india brazil and others are exporting countries and increasingly carry the load of exports of virtual ghg including co2 emissions and virtual water that are triggered due to consumption of the related goods in the importing countries 4 by importing products produced with lower carbon emission intensity and less water consumption than in the domestic industry international trade can reduce global environmental pressure results from analysis indicate that future actions should be focused onto two main areas i to steer regions towards self sufficiency based on more efficient processes and by combining production of surrounding countries ii to develop a mechanism with shared market of virtual carbon and virtual water between trading partners regionally and internationally

strategic choice of waiting and reaction times in bargaining abstract if two players first commit to waiting times in a sakovics bargaining technology and then bargain over the division of a known surplus zero waiting times are not subgame perfect choices and any division of the surplus is possible

composition of energy outflows embodied in the gross exports of the construction sector abstract energy sustainability has great importance in the development of the economy and society since energy is a necessary driving force for economic growth the construction sector accounts for a greater percentage of global energy consumption than most other sectors the structure of exports in the current trade pattern has affected the transmission of sectoral embodied energy through changes in regional economies this paper uncovers the composition of productions for gross exports and examines embodied energy from the viewpoint of value added through a case study in the construction sector multi regional input output tables have been used to process the data relevant to economic trade and energy input while the production of gross exports in 40 countries has been decomposed into the exports of value added trade and the exports of vertical specialisation trade based on data from world input output tables the decomposition and reorganisation clearly show the pathways and composition in the trade activities of gross exports the embodied energy of value added exports accounted for 60 90 of gross exports in the construction sectors of 37 countries the framework for sharing production in the construction sector still dominated the connections among many countries especially the trade relationships between large economies in the process of vertical specialisation trade the foreign value added of the construction sector was still limited by significant events such as the global financial crisis the construction sectors were ranked between 5 and 11 in all 35 domestic sectors in 34 countries as measured by the total export of embodied energy so the creation of high value added is enhanced by improvement in energy efficiency in the construction sector however the reduction of energy consumption in the construction sector may indirectly increase energy consumption in its upstream sectors because of the connection between exports and related production the balance between energy consumption and creation of value added in exports is an important consideration for government supervision and sectoral development local construction markets need to strengthen their ability in the supply of intermediate goods which benefits value added exports and domestic demand moreover developing national and international supply chains can positively offset the impact of the imbalanced distribution of globalised production

the estimation of prewar gross national product methodology and new evidence the paper develops new methodology for the estimation of prewar gnp taps previously unused data sources and develops new estimates for the periods 1869 1908 and 1869 1928 primary among the new data sources are direct measures of output in the transportation communications and construction sectors and estimates of the consumer price index new measures of real gnp nominal gnp and the gnp deflator are developed the new estimates of real gnp are as volatile on average over the business cycle as the traditional kuznets kendrick series but dampen the amplitude of some cycles while raising the amplitude of others the new estimates of the gnp deflator are distinctly less volatile than the traditional series and in fact no more volatile than those in the postwar period