speculative bubbles in the ff dm parity during the 1980s it is often argued that exchanged rates volatility during the 1980s was too excessive to be attributed only to market fundamentals this paper investigates for speculative bubles in the franc mark exchange rate applying direct tests for determinate bubbles and indirect ones according to the issues of integration and cointegration for stochastic bubbles in the context of a sticky price monetary model no clear cut conclusions can be drawn from these tests although all of them indicate that the no bubble hypothesis cannot be easily accepted however any evidence for bubbles should be interpreted with caution since a possible misspecification of the model may produce misleading inferences

extended benefits and the duration of ui spells evidence from the new jersey extended benefit program abstract this paper examines the impact on the duration of unemployment insurance receipt of a politically motivated program that offered 13 weeks of extended benefits for 6 months in 1996 using state level data and individual administrative records from before during and after the program we find that it raised the fraction of claimants who exhausted their regular benefits by 1 3 percentage points had the program run long enough to affect claimants from the first day of their spell the fraction exhausting would have risen by 7 percentage points and the average recipient would have collected regular benefits for one extra week

nonstationarity in job search theory generally structural job search models are taken to be stationary in this paper models are examined in which every exogenous variable can cause nonstationarity for instance because its value is dependent on unemployment duration a general differential equation that describes the evolution of the reservation wage over time is derived as an empirical illustration a nonstationary structural model is estimated that focuses on the consequences of a downward shift in the level of benefits it appears that the elasticity of duration with respect to the level of benefits after the shift is much larger than the elasticity with respect to the level before the shift this paper examines the movement of a job seeking individual s reservation wage over time in a general nonstationary job search model also results concerning comparative dynamics of the reservation wage and the distribution of the duration of unemployment are derived as an empirical illustration a nonstationary structural model is estimated the nonstationarity originates from the decrease in the level of benefits when unemployment duration equals two years from the results some detailed policy recommendations can be deduced as one is able to distinguish the effect of a change in the level of benefits in the first two years of unemployment from the effect of a change in the level after that period recently the use of job search models for the analysis of unemployment duration has become widespread the reduced form approach in empirical studies see e g lancaster 1979 in which only the hazard of the duration distribution is estimated is gradually being replaced by a more structural approach the latter way of modelling is characterized by the explicit use in empirical analysis of the reservation wage equation as stated by the theory e g yoon 1981 lancaster and chesher 1983 lynch 1983 narendranathan and nickell 1985 and van den berg 1988 use the complete theoretical framework of job search theory to make inferences about search behaviour however the structural models used in these studies are stationary this implies that variables like unemployment benefits or the rate of arrival of job offers are assumed to be constant over the spell of unemployment which is often at variance with reality what is more various reduced form empirical studies indicate a significant durationdependence of the re employment probability which is generally interpreted as evidence in favour of the presence of nonstationarity see e g blau and robins 1986 kooreman and ridder 1983 lancaster 1979 and narendranathan nickell and stern 1985 consequently there is a need to model reservation wage movements over time based on a nonstationary theoretical framework

phillips curves in developing countries the latin american case one of the more controversial subjects in macroeconomics during the last 2 decades has derived from the finding of phillips 1958 and subsequently numerous others of a stable empirical relationship between the rate of wage or price changes and the rate of unemployment or output growth the original contention has been increasingly challenged on the grounds that 1 its rationale is at best ambiguous 2 the relationship is unstable and 3 it is only a short run relationship nevertheless the significance of the subject has been preserved by its continued importance for policy by friedman s claim that the phillips curve relationship plays the important role of the missing equation distinguishing his own quantity theory of money oriented macro theory from the keynesian theory 2 and by the fact that recent more sophisticated empirical studies recognizing both supply and demand sides to output determination 3 tend to support it at least in the short run

money and output in latin america some tests of a rational expectations approach abstract this paper deals with the relationship between money and output in sixteen latin american countries making use of the framework of analysis elaborated by robert barro for the united states three closely interrelated hypotheses are tested 1 that the growth of the money supply is predictable in that it differs from a random walk with trend 2 that only the part of money growth which is not predicted will affect real output in the short run and 3 that as lucas has argued the slope of the phillips curve is smaller in size for countries where money and prices are less predictable

unanticipated monetary growth output and the price level in latin america an empirical investigation abstract this paper provides statistical evidence on the response of real output and the price level to movements in unanticipated monetary growth for 16 latin american countries in the context of barro s version of the rational expectations natural rate theory arima p d q modeling of the growth rate of m2 is employed for each country and the residuals of the selected model utilized to estimate the parameters of the real output and price level equations careful attention is devoted to the autocorrelation structure of the residuals of the real output and price level equations the empirical results suggest that generally unanticipated monetary growth has positive effects on real output and negative effects on the price level such patterns however do not exhibit an unambiguous symmetric response

the effect of unemployment insurance sanctions on the transition rate from unemployment to employment sanctions or punitive benefits reductions are increasingly used as a tool to enforce compliance of unemployment insurance claimants with search requirements this article analyses sanctions using a unique administrative data set of individuals who started collecting unemployment insurance in the netherlands in 1992 after correction for selectivity in the imposition of sanctions we find that sanctions substantially raise individual re employment rates

is there a threat effect of labour market programmes a study of almp in the danish ui system this article focuses on unemployed individuals reaction to compulsory labour market programmes prior to participation in denmark after having received ui benefits for a given period of time continued benefits are made conditional on participation in a labour market programme i estimate individuals reaction to compulsory programmes using legislative changes in the duration of benefits period as identification i find that compulsory programmes do indeed motivate individuals to find employment prior to participation the effect is large and is even comparable in size to the effect of benefits exhaustion found in studies of american ui systems

unemployment insurance and male unemployment duration in canada a model of unemployment duration is estimated with weekly micro data on canadian men entitlement provisions in the unemployment insurance program and demand conditions are found to have a significant effect on the probability of leaving unemployment the probability of a worker leaving unemployment declines with the duration of unemployment holding unemployment insurance entitlement constant when entitlement is allowed to vary the probability of leaving first falls and then generally rises with unemployment duration these results are robust with respect to allowing for person specific unobserved heterogeneity and alternative specifications of duration dependence

the impact of the potential duration of unemployment benefits on the duration of unemployment abstract this paper examines the impact of the potential duration of unemployment insurance ui benefits on unemployment in the united states first we use a large sample of household heads to examine differences in the unemployment spell distributions of ui recipients and nonrecipients sharp increases in the escape rate from unemployment both through recalls and new job acceptances are apparent for ui recipients around the time of benefits exhaustion such increases are not apparent at similar points of spell duration for nonrecipients second our analysis of accurate administrative data from 12 states indicates that a one week increase in potential benefit duration increases the average duration of the unemployment spells of ui recipients by 0 16 to 0 20 weeks

do benefit cuts boost job finding swedish evidence from the 1990s in june 1995 the swedish parliament decided to cut the replacement rate in unemployment insurance from 80 percent to 75 percent a change that took effect on january 1 1996 this paper examines h

unemployment duration unemployment benefits and labor market programs in sweden abstract standard search theory as well as some empirical evidence suggest that an unemployed individual s probability of entering employment increases as he approaches the time when unemployment benefits are due to expire this pattern may not carry over to a country like sweden where labor market programs are targeted at the long term unemployed at risk of benefit exhaustion the paper examines transitions out of unemployment using data on unemployed individuals in sweden a semi parametric competing risks model for transitions to employment labor market programs and non participation is estimated there is some evidence that the exit rate from unemployment to employment increases as benefit exhaustion is approached

temporary disability and economic incentives we investigate the impacts of economic incentives on the duration and outcome of temporary disability insurance tdi spells the analysis is based on a large quasi experiment taking place in norway involving a complete overhaul of the tdi benefit system our findings show that the labour supply of tdi claimants does respond to both the benefit level and the level of local labour demand the estimated elasticity of the transition rate to employment with respect to the benefit level is 0 33 we also find that the tdi benefit level significantly affects the transition rate to alternative social insurance programmes

policy impacts under rational expectations abstract this paper re examines for the u s the validity of the macro rational expectations mre hypothesis in contrast to most previous studies in this area the paper a considers the potential real effects of both monetary and fiscal policies b allows for possible endogeneity of these policies and c uses a joint non linear estimation methodology to distangle the hypothesis of rationality from that of neutrality the empirical results reject the joint mre hypothesis for both policies the results also indicate that policy non neutrality is the culprit behind such rejection this evidence offers further empirical support for macro rational expectations models where monetary and fiscal policies can due to some rigidities play a key role in stabilizing the real economy

does unemployment compensation affect unemployment duration abstract we use a flexible hazard rate model with unrestricted spell duration and calendar timeeffects to analyse a dataset including all norwegian unemployment spells during the1990 s the dataset provides a unique access to conditionally independent variation inunemployment compensation we find that a marginal increase in compensation re duces the escape rate from unemployment significantly irrespective of business cycleconditions and spell duration the escape rate rises sharply in the months just prior tobenefit exhaustion while men are more responsive than women with respect to mar ginal changes in compensation women are most responsive with respect to benefitexhaustion keywords unemployment spells business cycles unemployment compensation non parametric duration analysis jel classification c41 j64 the ragnar frisch centre for economic research oslo we wish to thank the re search council of norway for financial support and christian brinck harald goldstein costas meghir espen moen steinar strom rolf aaberge and three anonomyous referees for helpful comments cor respondence to knut roed the ragnar frisch centre for economic research gaustadalleen 21 0349oslo norway e mail knut roed frisch uio no

unemployment insurance in welfare states the impacts of soft duration constraints based on a major reform of norwegian unemployment insurance ui we examine the behavioral impacts of soft and hard ui duration constraints a constraint is interpreted as hard if a claimant cannot rely on any form of income support after exhaustion and as soft if ui is replaced by follow on benefits or participation in active labor market programs almp we find that both hard and soft constraints raise the job hazard significantly with surprisingly similar spikes at ui exhaustion participation in almp raises the probability of eventually finding a job but at the cost of lengthening the overall job search period

is the threat of reemployment services more effective than the services themselves evidence from random assignment in the ui system we examine the effect of the worker profiling and reemployment services system this program profiles unemployment insurance ui claimants to determine their probability of benefit exhaustion and then provides mandatory employment and training services to claimants with high predicted probabilities using a unique experimental design we estimate that the program reduces mean weeks of ui benefit receipt by about 2 2 weeks reduces mean ui benefits received by about 143 ana increases subsequent earnings by over 1 050 most of the effect results from a sharp increase in early ui exits in the treatment group relative to the control group jel j650

an examination of the objectives of monetary policy in four developing economies abstract this paper presents a model of monetary policy in developing economies which is estimated for mexico korea india and zambia the model is designed to identify both the goals and patterns of policy in these economies the results demonstrate that the authorities in these economies respond to foreign reserve flows partially sterilizing their impact in three countries they also respond to domestic variables accomodating seasonal variation and growth or price changes

the spike at benefit exhaustion leaving the unemployment system or starting a new job in this paper we review the literature on the spike in unemployment exit rates around benefit exhaustion and present new evidence based on administrative data for a large sample of job losers in austria we find that the way unemployment spells are measured has a large effect on the magnitude of the spike at exhaustion both in existing studies and in our austrian data spikes are typically much smaller when spell length is defined by the time to next job than when it is defined by the time spent on the unemployment system in austria the exit rate from registered unemployment rises by over 200 at the expiration of benefits while the hazard rate of re employment rises by only 20 the difference between the two measures arises because many individuals leave the unemployment register immediately after their benefits expire without returning to work the modest spike in re employment rates implies that most job seekers do not wait until their ui benefits are exhausted to return to work fewer than 1 of jobless spells have an ending date that is manipulated to coincide with the expiration of ui benefits this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

econometric issues in macroeconomic models with generated regressors the paper critically reviews the literature on the econometric issues raised by the use of generated regressors gr in empirical models the economic rationale for the use of gr is considered with examples being drawn from several macroeconomic examples including new classical macroeconomic ncm models which postulate monetary neutrality various estimation methods are discussed for models which include surprise or unexpected terms and the strengths and weaknesses of each approach are investigated drawing upon the work of mcaleer and mckenzie 1991 situations where the typically inefficient two step estimation 2se method will be efficient are highlighted problems of model misspecification and measurement errors are also investigated an empirical section highlights some of the dangers of using uncorrected 2se estimation results through a careful consideration of many recent attempts to test the ncm monetary neutrality hypothesis copyright 1993 by blackwell publishers ltd

the effects on output of anticipated and unanticipated money growth a case study of an oil producing country the new classical macroeconomic hypotheisis regarding the effecs of money growth on real variables sugggests that the anticipated changes in money supply on real variables are neutral irrespective of the time horizon whereas the unanticipated changes in the money supply although neutral in the long run exert significant influence on real variables in the short run this proposition has produced unsettled empirical results the present study attempts to verify empirically the new classical hypothesis in the case of a developing oil producing middle eastern country iraq our study suggests that the anticipated components of money growth rates have positive and significant influence on real variables the results of this study do not lend support to the new classical hypothesis instead they suggest that a steady growth rate of money supply that is fully anticipated by economic agents builds confidence by reducing errors in expectation regarding the behaviour of the money supply and provides easier ac

the credibility of hong kong s link from the perspective of modern financial theory hong kong s linked exchange rate system lers has been in operation since 1983 during which time many other fixed exchange rate systems have succumbed to shocks and or speculative attacks this paper investigates how market participants assessed changes made to the lers by using the tools of modern finance to extract information from financial asset prices about market expectations these changes have been characterized as making the system less discretionary over time we find that decreasing the discretionary element of the lers led to an increase in credibility of the arrangement

unanticipated inflation devaluation and output in latin america abstract employing a lucas type supply function this paper uses pooled cross country data for 16 latin american countries to estimate the impact on short run output growth of 1 unanticipated inflation 2 changes in the relative cost of foreign exchange and 3 business cycle fluctuations in the industrial countries the results give strong support to the contractionary impact of devaluation in latin america and to the existence of a negatively sloped phillips curve they also suggest a powerful impact of external economic activity on growth rates

how changes in financial incentives affect the duration of unemployment this paper studies how changes in the two key parameters of unemployment insurance the benefit replacement rate rr and the potential benefit duration pbd affect the duration of unemployment to identify such an effect we exploit a policy change introduced in 1989 by the austrian government which affected various unemployed workers differently a first group experienced an increase in rr a second group experienced an extension of pbd a third group experienced both a higher rr and a longer pbd and a fourth group experienced no change in the policy parameters we find that unemployed workers react to the disincentives by an increase in unemployment duration and our empirical results are consistent with the predictions of job search theory we use our parameter estimates to split up the total costs to unemployment insurance funds into costs due to changes in the unemployment insurance system with unchanged behaviour and costs due to behavioural responses of unemployed workers our results indicate that costs due to behavioural responses are substantial

stochastic devaluation risk and the empirical fit of target zone models in the model of this paper an exchange rate fluctuates between given boundaries for random lengths of time and jumps discretely when devaluation occur we provide explicit solutions for the stochastic processes followed by the exchange rate and by the expected rate of depreciation when the likelihood and the size of devaluations vary stochastically over time the model produces realistic patterns of covariation between exchange rates and interest rate differentials and provides interesting interpretations of available empirical evidence we also specify how to infer devaluation risk from target zone data

optimal workfare with voluntary and involuntary unemployment this paper addresses the welfare implications of introducing workfare into unemployment benefit policy we consider a population composed of employed and unemployed workers and of individuals who do not seek employment job search behavior is unobservable which means that voluntarily unemployed individuals can claim unemployment insurance ui benefits intended for unemployed workers as a consequence pecuniary benefit schemes underinsure workers against unemployment we show that requiring unproductive activities workfare in exchange for ui benefits may generate a pareto improvement by facilitating better unemployment insurance for workers and we characterize the situations where this is the case

unemployment duration and economic incentives a quasi random assignment approach abstract we investigate how economic incentives and spell duration affect hazard rates out of insured unemployment we take into account that insured unemployment not always ends in employment but also in disability training programs or benefit sanctions our empirical basis is norwegian register data containing variation in economic incentives and spell duration similar to that of random assignment experiments we find that the employment and benefit sanction hazards are negatively affected by the unemployment insurance replacement ratio but that the effects vary considerably among individuals there is negative duration dependence in the employment hazard and positive duration dependence in the disability hazard

optimal unemployment insurance this paper considers the design of an optimal unemployment insurance system the problem is modeled as a repeated principalagent problem involving a risk averse agent the unemployed worker and a risk neutral principal which cannot monitor the agent s search effort the optimal long term contract subject to the associated incentive constraints is characterized this contract involves a replacement ratio that decreases throughout the unemployment spell and a wage tax after reemployment that under some mild regularity conditions increases with the lenght of the unemployment spell some numerical results are presented that suggest that the gains from switching to this optimal unemployment insurance scheme could be quite large the performance of this optimal contract is also compared to alternative liquidity provision mechanisms

expectations of unemployment insurance and unemployment duration over the years there have been frequent changes in unemployment insurance ui benefits such changes could influence spells in progress as well as future spells if individuals anticipate changes they are likely to adjust their behavior the effect of changes in benefits on unemployment duration therefore will be difficult to predict accurately without accounting for individual expectations this article investigates the extent to which individuals anticipate changes in ui entitlement the results suggest that individuals have significant although not perfect foresight about changes in ui provisions assuming perfect foresight might represent actual expectations more closely than assuming no foresight

sick of being unemployed interactions between unemployment and sickness insurance this paper examines the incentive effects of interactions between unemployment insurance ui and sickness insurance si two important components of sweden s social insurance system the main topic is how the sickness report rate among the unemployed is affected by i the limit of 300 workdays for ui benefits and ii the difference in maximum compensation between ui and si benefits results obtained by duration analysis suggest that sick reports increase as the ui benefit expiration date approaches there is also evidence of an incentive effect on the sick report rate because si offers higher compensation than ui

rational expectations and price behavior abstract this paper evaluates the role of rational expectations in price setting behavior in india india has a large informal sector where prices are generally flexible since most economic transactions do not take place under formal and fixed contracts empirical tests suggest that prices respond fully to anticipated changes in demand while unanticipated changes affect output furthermore the price equation was found to be consistent with the money demand and output equation in the past the monetary authority in india have not systematically responded to negative output shocks such as those arising from droughts or famines by introducing unanticipated reductions in money growth this policy has been helpful in minimizing output losses and thereby stabilizing prices

unemployment insurance and unemployment spells this paper tests the effects of the level and length of unemployment insurance benefits on unemployment durations the paper particularly studies individual behavior during the weeks just prior to when benefits lapse higher unemployment insurance benefits are found to have a strong negative effect on the probability of leaving unemployment however the probability of leaving unemployment rises dramatically just prior to when benefits lapse individual data are used with accurate information of spell durations and the level and length of benefits the semiparametric estimation techniques used in the paper yield more plausible estimates than conventional approaches and provide useful diagnostics copyright 1990 by the econometric society

evaluating the employment impact of a mandatory job search program this paper exploits area based piloting and age related eligibility rules to identify treatment effects of a labor market program the new deal for young people in the u k a central focus is on substitution displacement effects and on equilibrium wage effects the program includes extensive job assistance and wage subsidies to employers we find that the impact of the program significantly raised transitions to employment by about 5 percentage points the impact is robust to a wide variety of nonexperimental estimators however we present some evidence that this effect may not be as large in the longer run jel j18 j23 j38

the effect of unemployment compensation on unemployment duration in germany in west germany during the 1980s law changes cut the level of unemployment compensation for the unemployed without children and extended the duration of unemployment insurance for unemployed aged over 41 analysis of these changes using the german socioeconomic panel shows that transitions from unemployment for those under 49 were particularly responsive to extensions of unemployment insurance the implied elasticity for escapes of men to employment is similar to estimates for men in the united states suggesting that differences in the potential duration of unemployment insurance only partially explain the difference in spell lengths between germany and the united states

the term structure of interest rate differentials in a target zone theory and swedish data abstract the term structure of interest rate differentials is derived in a model of a small open economy with a target zone exchange rate regime for given time to maturity the interest rate differential is decreasing in the exchange rate and for given exchange rate the interest rate differential s absolute value and its instantaneous variability are both decreasing in the time to maturity devaluation realignment risks are incorporated and imply upward shifts of the interest rate differentials several implications of the theory are found to be broadly consistent with data on swedish exchange rates and interest differentials for the period 1986 1989