parents discount rates for child quality contemporary discussions of economic growth make human capital or knowledge accumulation its primary engine 25 human capital as the lead component of the stock of wealth defines a developed economy becker and murphy 4 show that human capital both increases and is increased by the scope of the market its rate of return rises with the size of its stock 5 human capital also plays significant roles in models of human fertility choice 40 population and environmental degradation 11 34 capital mobility 3 and endogenous technological progress 33 a substantial portion of an adult s human capital is accumulated during childhood children as children however cannot independently contract for the resources required to support investments in this human capital though nearly every society grants parents wide discretion about the nurture they provide their children little is understood about what motivates investment by one generation in another the relative importance of different investment modes or the discount rates which parents apply whatever the motivation and the mode because of the long time span between birth and adulthood parents discount rates potentially exert great leverage upon the investment decisions they make for their children knowledge of these discount rates is a prerequisite to acquiring an improved understanding of the internal decision processes of the household a collective decision unit which economics mostly treats as a black box 1 important policy questions as well as scientific accuracy and logical consistency demand knowledge of the discount rates parents apply to investments in their children healthier better educated and wealthier children have a better chance in life but there is no evident reason to suppose that intrafamily discount rates are socially optimal 2 many of the private reactions and behaviors which reinforce or temper the intended effects of public policies are internal to the household when these intended effects have a substantial temporal dimension parental discount rates will be influential for example increased public investments in children can be neutralized

the long term effect of renewable electricity on employment in the united kingdom abstract assessment of the employment impact of renewable electricity technologies is generally implemented through either complex and data intensive methods such as computable general equilibrium models or simplistic approaches normally focused on specific energy generation technologies such as employment factors in contrast this article proposes a transparent and easily reproducible econometric methodology based on the vector error correction model that uses aggregated and widely available data the model is applied to the power generation sector in the united kingdom using annual data from 1990 onwards and provides evidence that the long term employment impact of renewable technologies is much higher than the impact arising from deploying nuclear or natural gas technologies the impulse response function analysis indicates that a permanent 1 gigawatt hours increase in annual electricity supply generated by renewable technologies creates 3 5 jobs in the long term period finally this study derives the implications of the findings in the context of decarbonisation scenarios for the power sector in the united kingdom and assesses the extent to which decarbonisation pathways based on renewable electricity contribute to stimulating employment in the generation sector

regional electricity generation and employment in uk regions abstractregional electricity generation and employment in uk regions regional studies a number of electricity generation technologies reduce carbon emissions but with different economic and employment effects partly consequent on how far generation capacity supports regional supply chains in devolved regions these issues are important because of the role given to renewable electricity generation in economic development strategies this paper analyses the regional employment supported by different electricity generation technologies illustrating trade offs between generation scale and employment intensity and shows that the regional employment supported under all pathways is modest compared with the regional economic scale the policy implications are investigated

employment factors for wind and solar energy technologies a literature review abstract in this paper we present an up to date literature review on employment opportunities associated with the deployment of renewable energy technology we identified approximately 70 studies and data sources published over the past decade that report analysed or observed employment impacts of renewable energy growth these publications cover many different countries and several technology options and present widely varying results derived from distinct methodological approaches our first overall conclusion is that there is clear lack of authenticity of findings in this literature since recursive referencing abounds and relatively few studies yield truly original research when we omit non authentic analyses as well as those that aggregate results in a way that does not allow us to calculate employment factors defined as the number of jobs or amount of work generated per unit of electricity production capacity the total list of references is brought to 31 independent items of these only 14 references provide separate estimates of the employment factors for the stages of manufacturing and installation respectively as opposed to employment factors for these two activities combined a total of 23 items provide values for operation and maintenance o m employment factors we observe significant uncertainties in quoted figures for job creation both across and within publications

energy investment economic growth and carbon emissions in china empirical analysis based on spatial durbin model abstract the international community has reached a consensus on preventing the global climate from deterioration by stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere energy industry is a key field for greenhouse gas emission and investment in the energy industry plays a crucial part in promoting the low carbon development of china s energy industry energy investment can effectively break the high carbon lock in effect of energy industry and achieve the low carbon development of energy industry by guiding regulating and gathering social funds into the field of cleaner production and the field of low carbon technology based on the unified framework of energy economy and environment this article takes 30 provinces in china as the research object and constructs a spatial econometric model to investigate the impact of energy investment and economic growth on carbon emission reduction the results indicate that both energy investment and economic growth are responsible for the increase of china s provincial co2 emissions but their driving mechanisms are significantly different furthermore the increase of carbon emissions in adjacent provinces will bring about the increase of local carbon emissions through spatial spillover effects based on these findings the corresponding countermeasures and policy suggestions are put forward

a defense of compulsive measures against child labor abstract this research characterizes policies likely to trigger the onset of a growth enhancing fertility transition even for an economy with initially a low per capita income the environment considered is one where children s time has an economic value and schooling and child labor are the main competing claims on a child s time using a one parent family overlapping generations model i argue that compulsive measures against child labor are justifiable as an integral part of an intervention that combines incentives and regulations in order to eliminate child labor the analysis highlights fertility and child labor dynamics as shaped by the relative cost of children

untangling the complexity of the direct and indirect determinants of the residential energy consumption in france quantitative analysis using a structural equation modeling approach abstract about a quarter of french energy demand is for residential use this study mobilises a multidisciplinary approach and a non linear modeling strategy to examine the total direct and indirect effects of households and housing units in designing french energy consumption based on micro level data from the new french 2012 phebus survey this research implements a structural equation model to tease out the effects of both dwelling characteristics household attributes climate and behaviours on the domestic energy use findings confirm that the direct effect of household related attributes on domestic energy demand is notably lower than the corresponding effect from the dwelling attributes nevertheless considering for the indirect effect of household factors on energy use across housing choices the total impact of household related attributes on the french domestic energy consumption is just slightly lower than that of dwelling characteristics therefore to highlight the spectrum of residential energy use this research calls to incorporate both direct and indirect effects of household attributes and choices this study suggests several key insights on how to incorporate housing policy into residential energy policy and reduce energy related greenhouse gas emissions

why do schooling returns differ screening private schools and labor markets in the philippines and thailand abstract this article examines returns to schooling in the philippines and thailand using recent employee surveys in manufacturing industries empirical results show that i schooling returns steadily increase as education attainment increases in thailand but the returns increase only at university level in the philippines and that ii private school premiums are higher in the philippines than thailand the latter finding is consistent with the dominance of private institutions in the philippine education system the premiums from private schooling investments in the philippines are however found to be spurious in the sense that private schools screen high ability students which augments wage therefore the productivity gain from private schooling is small

resource allocation and use under collective rights and labour management in peruvian coastal agriculture a critical issue in the evaluation of labour management as a development policy is its impact on production in an effort to contribute to that evaluation and to the economics of labour management this study analyses production data collected from cooperative firms established by the peruvian agrarian reform the data present an unusual opportunity for careful microeconomic analysis of the reform itself as well as an opportunity to confront and refine existing propositions about the effects of the collective property rights of labour management on production property rights may affect production because of their effort on incentives for conventional resource allocation decisions they may also affect intrafirm principal agent decisions which determine the intensity with which given resources are utilised beginning with ward s i 958 paper a number of theoretical studies have compared labour managed and capitalist resource allocation and an approximate consensus has emerged about conditions under which differences occur in this study measures of the allocative behaviour of peruvian firms are estimated and compared with the theoretically expected behaviour of both capitalist and peasant agricultural producers the impact of collective ownership on the intensity of resource utilisation i e technical efficiency of the observable production function arouses greater theoretical dispute than the resource allocation question a collective assignment of property rights may weaken supervisory authority which can control free rider externality problems within the production process on the other hand participation of labour in management may foster cooperative attitudes and other social control devices which can fulfill the same functions as hierarchical supervision existing literature offers the competing hypotheses that labour management leads either to a breakdown in intrafirm coordination and the observable technical efficiency of production as jensen and meckling i 979 claim or to an improvement as vanek i 969 claims the results of the present paper do not unequivocably support either view instead they portray a diversity in labour managed production performance and suggest the importance of policy and institutional factors which condition the impact of labour management on production the results also provide a

quantifying the impacts of energy price reform on living expenses in saudi arabia abstract as part of vision 2030 saudi arabia has initiated a broad based energy reform programme aimed at gradually reducing its dependence on oil this paper assesses the impacts of energy price reforms on living expenses of various household groups in saudi arabia for this purpose the input output table combined with household expenditure data are used to model the impacts results show that the distributional impacts of energy price reforms are regressive with low income households experiencing a higher increase in living expenses compared to high income households the impacts are primarily instigated by rising prices of energy intensive products after decomposing the impacts into direct and indirect effects it was found that indirect effect is not only responsible for a considerable rise in household expenditure on energy intensive products but it is also distributionally regressive it is therefore vital for policymakers to review and fine tune the social protection system to protect poor households against reforms

reinventing foreign aid for inclusive and sustainable development kuznets piketty and the great policy reversal this survey essay reviews over 200 papers in arguing that in order to achieve sustainable and inclusive development foreign aid should not orient developing countries towards industrialisation in the perspective of kuznets but in the view of piketty abandoning the former s view that inequality will fall with progress in industrialisation and placing more emphasis on inequality in foreign aid policy will lead to more sustainable development outcomes inter alia mitigate short term poverty address concerns of burgeoning population growth train recipient governments on inclusive development fight corruption and mismanagement and avoid the shortfalls of celebrated kuznets conjectures we discuss how the essay addresses post 2015 development challenges and provide foreign aid policy instruments with which discussed objectives can be achieved in summary the essay provides useful policy measures to avoid past pitfalls output may be growing and yet the mass of the people may be becoming poorer lewis 1955 lewis led all developing countries to water proverbially speaking some african countries have so far chosen not to drink amavilah 2014 piketty 2014 has led all developing countries to the stream again and a challenging policy syndrome of our time is how foreign aid can help them to drink

agrarian reform in the dominican republic an associative solution to the collective individual dilemma abstract the dilemma of appropriate organizational structure for agrarian reform projects is pervasive in all of latin america collectives or production cooperatives provide superior vehicles for necessary credit and technical assistance but unlikely family plots they are wrought with administrative problems and low worker incentive this case study of land reform projects in the dominican republic presents the limitations of collective and individual farming structures and characterizes an intermediate associative preferred by the dominican reform beneficiaries empirical evidence shows higher productivity as the reform projects adopt the associative structure

the impact of clean energy investments on the greek economy an input output analysis 2010 2020 the aim of this paper is twofold first to calculate the green energy investments by industrial sector that greece would need in order to satisfy a number of energy and environmental targets adopted in the context of the european commission s energy and climate change package and second to calculate the macro economic impacts of these green investments on production and employment in the greek economy to this end the input output analysis has been exploited for estimating the direct indirect and induced macroeconomic effects associated with the implementation of selected energy conservation measures the promotion of renewable energy technologies etc our findings show that the required investments would reach the amount of 47 9 billion over the period 2010 2020 these investments will result in an average annual increase of the national product by 9 4 billion creating simultaneously 108 000 full time equivalent jobs for the entire period under consideration the employment generated per 1 million investment is relatively higher in energy saving projects in buildings and transport in comparison with the development of res in power generation sector

employment creation potential of renewable power generation technologies a life cycle approach abstract the present study analyses the employment characteristics of nine different renewable power generation technologies two types of solar photovoltaic wind small scale hydro geothermal wood biomass and three types of biogas the analysis uses a renewable energy focused input output model that the authors developed to analyse life cycle environmental and socio economic impacts of renewable power generation technologies and policies the analysis reveals that there are distinctive differences among the nine technologies impacts on employment the total employment creation potential over the life cycle is estimated to be in the range of 1 04 5 04 person years per gwh furthermore the nine technologies have unique features regarding how many and what kinds of jobs are created across the whole life cycle the introduction of these technologies into an economy directly and indirectly induces jobs in different industrial sectors reflecting their technological characteristics on the other hand the nine different technologies have a common employment effect in that they create relatively high employment opportunities in the service sectors such as wholesale trade non life insurance and judicial financial and accounting services the present study reveals quantitative employment characteristics of the different types of renewable power generation technology to provide valuable information for renewable energy policy making

is growth corrupted or bureaucratic panel evidence from the enlarged eu abstractthis article aims at analysing the issue of conditional convergence in the new enlarged european union eu over the period 1995 2012 by means of panel data techniques we examined the issue of conditional convergence in the enlarged eu giving particular attention to the effects of corruption and bureaucracy on growth controlling for a widely used set of explanatory variables such as investment domestic and foreign human capital formation inflation general government final consumption and trade openness furthermore we examine if growth responds differently to corruption and bureaucracy in the new eu members by means of two group specific interaction variables to capture possible different responses to corruption and bureaucracy the analysis reveals evidence of conditional convergence in the enlarged eu with investment share foreign direct investment human capital and country openness appearing as robust growth drivers in contrast inflation and government consumption rather hamper gro

educational subsidy agricultural development and fertility change in this paper the effects of continuing agricultural technical change on the allocation of resources by households between increments to family size and to schooling are examined within the context of a model of household decision making in which education facilitates innovation an empirical application of the model to data from india indicates consistent with the theory that in farm households more intensively exposed to the new technologies associated with the green revolution fertility was significantly reduced while the level of schooling investment was significantly increased in contrast and also consistent with the model proximity of schools in the absence of technical change had only marginal effects on schooling and little impact on family size

the economic impact of energy saving retrofits of residential and public buildings in croatia abstract the purpose of this paper is to estimunate the impact of energy saving investment in residential and public buildings in croatia for the period 2015 2020 the aim is to assess the overall socio economic impact of energy saving renovation measures defined in croatian strategic documents in terms of the direct indirect and induced growth of gross value added employment and government revenues an estimate of the avoided costs of air pollution is also included the overall economic impact assessment is based on an input output methodology from the point of view of individual investors the benefits in terms of reduced future expenses related to energy products are usually below energy efficient renovation investment costs making an investment financially viable only if government support is provided if the benefits for society as a whole are included energy efficient renovation could be assessed as viable even in the short run energy saving retrofits of residential and public buildings positively contribute to economic growth employment and protection of the environment because of economic growth the tax revenues induced by these investments could compensate for government expenditures and the overall impact on the public deficit is expected to be neutral even in the short run

common property equality and development the appeal of common property ideas may be traced in large measure to the fact that they seem to embody widely held values of equality on the other hand empirical examination of common property institutions reveals that they can coexist with significant inequality in this paper the relationship between common property and equality is examined it is argued that the role of common property can only be understood in the context of the associated private property institutions common property in agriculture is interpreted as part of a system based on small scale peasant proprietorship of arable land common property institutions provide a method of capturing scale economies and thereby increasing the efficiency of small scale proprietorship in competition with large scale production based on wage labor

energy based economic development abstract the fields of economic development and energy policy and planning have converged in recent years to form an emerging discipline which we term energy based economic development ebed despite the significant amount of stimulus funds as well as state and local funding that are being allocated to ebed initiatives in the united states the emerging discipline has received scant attention in the energy policy and development literature the link between energy and economic development in the literature is still theoretical mostly focused on the need for and the potential benefits of ebed and rarely applied furthermore funding for ebed has outpaced understanding of the discipline development of rigorous technical approaches and meaningful ways to measure impact such information would not only help practitioners and policymakers more thoroughly understand the confines of the discipline and shape goals and approaches accordingly but also help researchers identify track and evaluate a variety of activities in the field with national and international attention focused on the convergence of these fields researchers and practitioners have a rare opportunity to develop and implement the tools necessary to evaluate and communicate the potentially broader impacts that ebed may hold for society if ways to leverage and sustain the injection of funds in this discipline are not identified the opportunity may end before we can achieve either energy policy or economic development goals in an attempt to respond to this need this analysis explores the connection between energy and economic development beginning with a review of the trends in each field and the goals that each seeks to achieve on the basis of this information we define the discipline of ebed review the existing literature on it and offer insights and perspectives on its emergence

global population growth technology and malthusian constraints a quantitative growth theoretic perspective we structurally estimate a two sector schumpeterian growth model with endogenous population and finite land reserves to study the long run evolution of global population technological progress and the demand for food the estimated model closely replicates trajectories for world population gdp sectoral productivity growth and crop land area from 1960 to 2010 projections from 2010 onwards show a slowdown of technological progress and because it is a key determinant of fertility costs significant population growth by 2100 global population reaches 12 4 billion and agricultural production doubles but the land constraint does not bind because of capital investment and technological progress

the rationale for energy efficiency policy assessing the recognition of the multiple benefits of energy efficiency retrofit policy the rationale for energy efficiency policy can be framed in terms of a variety of different benefits this paper considers how different benefits have been used within the overall rationale for energy efficient retrofit policy in different contexts we posit that different rationales may be used for the same policy response and that the form of rationale used may affect the design delivery or the level of policy support with different rationales making it easier to account for different results considering retrofit policy in the contexts of the uk germany new zealand and ireland we characterise policy rationale in each case assessing what the key perceived benefits have been and whether they have changed over time the analysis identifies some marked differences between cases with the recognition of benefits and the ensuing policy rationale resulting from a complex mix of political social and economic influences we find that recognition of multiple benefits may not equate with multiplied policy support and instead it is more likely that different rationales will have relevance at different times for different audiences the findings highlight that alongside evidence for policy it is important to also consider how the overall rationale for policy is eventually framed

motivations to remit evidence from botswana in this article a theory of motivations to send remittances is described and tested with data from botswana altruism is one of the motivations tested and found to be an insufficient explanation for remittances among migrants in botswana a refinement of the model stipulates a modified altruism or enlightened self interest in this model the relationship between the migrant and family is tempered by an implicit understanding of mutual benefit the household strategy may be to encourage some members to migrate as a means of spreading risk and sharing gains the household strategy is similar to an insurance policy where migration is to places where market potential is high the risks incurred might be high the example is given of migration during a drought in botswana migrant remittances were greater in households with more cattle or households with more to lose drought alone was not statistically related to remittances increases in remittances were related to increased levels of education it is suggested that repayment was the motive for parents investment in migrants education migrants gains are identified as the potential for an inheritance the security of channeling investments through a trusted family member and security in having a home to return to it is pointed out that the altruism and family remittances from urban migration were strategies that bridged the simple dynamic of either urban development or rural development impacting on family welfare it is suggested that household models of economy adopt some measure to express the relationship of household wealth to remittances from urban migrants

an intergenerational model of population growth the problem of population growth has been only partially formulated in an intertemporal context therefore a link between population theory and economic growth theory is still missing this paper attempts to provide such a link by analyzing an intergenerational model of optimum population growth the model accommodates the idea that decisions on increases in population should consider the new population s quality of life this concept is elaborated upon in a static framework by gary becker and gregg lewis dennis de tray and robert willis other literature on population growth such as harold votey disregards this consideration altogether 2 more explicitly this paper assumes that the utility of each generation is a function of the level of its consumption and the number and utility of the newly born people we are thus led to consider the utility of an infinite number of generations this model differs from paul samuelson s intergenerational model of pure consumption in which the utility of each generation depends only on that generation s own consumption recently philip neher 1971 analyzed a model of fertility in primitive economies it is based on the assumption that parents use children as investments to insure future consumption needs neher s analysis focuses entirely on the pension motive for having children 3 our model assumes that fertility is determined so as to balance the parents welfare derived from additional children against that derived from the children s quality of life we first outline a general model of optimum population growth in order to discuss explicitly various economic aspects of population we use a simple case in the analysis section i sets up the basic model

a modified collective agriculture in rural growth with equity reconsidering the private unimodal solution abstract this paper identifies limitations of an agricultural structure of small private farms as a basis for rural growth with distributive equity and points out potential advantages of democratically managed collectives characterized by flexibility with respect to production scale group checks on inequality in land use and avoidance of the underemployment generating tendencies of large scale non collective agriculture after a critique of recent literature on scale economies and a discussion of stratification tendencies in private agriculture a model of democratic rural collectives incorporating features of chinese and tanzanian precedents is introduced and evaluated political feasibility is considered in a concluding discussion

child labor and coordination failures abstract in this note we show that a technology based coordination failure may explain the emergence of laws restricting child labor child labor may arise because of the lack of a coordination mechanism between parental decisions to invest in the human capital of their children and firms decisions to invest in skill biased technologies legislative intervention in many cases helps coordinate expectations towards a pareto superior outcome with investments both in human capital and in skill biased technologies

economic and environmental effects of a co2 tax in latin american countries abstract the environmental extension from the leontief pricing model is used to simulate the economic and environmental effects of setting different co2 tax rates in three latin american countries brazil mexico and chile it considers a regulatory scenario in which the tax is applied only to emissions from the electricity sector and another scenario in which tax is applied to emissions from all economic sectors the results show that the effects of a co2 tax on sectoral prices and emissions in each country are very different for the same tax rate but these effects are similar in each country when comparing both regulatory scenarios this is explained by the composition carbonization of the electric generation and energy matrix of each of the countries which significantly affects the effectiveness of co2 taxes to reduce emissions in addition the economic sectors most affected by the different regulatory scenarios are similar in all countries

an estimable dynamic stochastic model of fertility and child mortality this paper develops a finite horizon dynamic stochastic model of discrete choice with respect to life cycle fertility within an environment where infant survival is uncertain the model yields implications for the number timing and spacing of children a tractable estimation method is developed for the linear constraint quadratic utility case that is intimately tied to the dynamic optimization problem and the method is applied to malaysian household data estimation is based on integrating the numerical solution of the dynamic programming model of behavior with a maximum likelihood procedure

a hierarchy model of associative farming abstract acceptance of the need for complementary services when agrarian reform is introduced such as credit and technical assistance has led many countries in latin america to organize land reform projects into collectives or production cooperatives but the disincentives to effort inherent in group farming have been a continual source of underproduction and disappointment with cooperative farming experiments the paper suggests an intermediate farming structure currently successful in the dominican republic in the framework of an agency contract incorporating the hierarchical relations between beneficiary administrator and governing agency the advantages of the associative over either individual or collective farming are illustrated

the impact of doe building technology energy efficiency programs on u s employment income and investment abstract the u s department of energy s office of energy efficiency and renewable energy eere analyzes the macroeconomic impacts of its programs that are designed to increase the energy efficiency of the u s residential and commercial building stock the analysis is conducted using the impact of sector energy technologies imset model a special purpose 188 sector input output model of the u s economy designed specifically to evaluate the impacts of energy efficiency investments and saving for the analysis described in the paper imset was amended to provide estimates of sector by sector capital requirements and investment in the scenario of the fiscal year fy 2005 building technologies bt program the technologies and building practices being developed and promoted by the bt program have the potential to save about 2 9 10 15 btu in buildings by the year 2030 about 27 of the expected growth in building energy consumption by the year 2030 the analysis reported in the paper finds that by the year 2030 these savings have the potential to increase employment by up to 446 000 jobs increase wage income by 7 8 billion reduce needs for capital stock in the energy sector and closely related supporting industries by about 207 billion and the corresponding annual level of investment by 13 billion and create net capital savings that are available to grow the nation s future economy

the carbon footprint of greek households 1995 2012 abstract the goal of this paper is twofold i to investigate the carbon footprint of greek households throughout the period 1995 2012 in order to identify the main socio economic factors that affect ghg emissions and ii to evaluate the effectiveness of the implemented policies to tackle climate change in this a consumption based emissions inventory approach is applied the analysis is based on an environmentally extended input output model including direct co2 emissions from households indirect co2 emissions from electricity consumption and indirect co2 emissions from energy used in the production of goods and services purchased by households domestic or imported statistical analysis and appropriate regression models were developed in order to identify the main factors influencing the carbon footprint of greek households the results indicate that the observed trends during the period 1995 2008 can be attributed to the effect of high economic growth this trend is partially counterbalanced by favorable weather conditions and the implementation of greenhouse mitigation policies and measures mainly in the supply side since 2008 the shrinking household income is the dominant driver in addition the effectiveness of energy conservation policies and measures in place is rather low while the effect of imports is limited

bounded rationality expectations and child labour this paper develops a model with overlapping generations where the household s optimal fertility child labour and education decisions depend on the parents expectations or beliefs about the return to education it is shown that there exists a range of parental income where the fertility rate is high and children participate in the labour market and receive an incomplete education if a parent believes the return to education is low the act of participating in the labour market reduces the child s ability to accumulate human capital thus the action of sending a child into the labour market is sufficient to ensure that the parents initially pessimistic expectations are fulfilled it is then shown that a one time policy intervention such as banning child labour and mandatory education can be enough to move a country from the positive child labour equilibrium to an equilibrium with no child labour rationalite limitee anticipations et travail des enfants ce memoire developpe un modele de chevauchement des generations ou la fecondite optimale du menage le travail des enfants et les decisions a propos de l education dependent des anticipations des parents ou de qu ils croient etre le rendement sur l education on montre qu il existe un eventail de revenus des parents pour lequel le taux de fecondite est eleve et les enfants participent au marche du travail et recoivent une education incomplete si un parent croit que le rendement sur l investissement en education est faible le fait d entrer sur le marche du travail reduit la capacite de l enfant a accumuler du capital humain et donc le fait de l envoyer sur le marche du travail est suffisant pour s assurer que les anticipations pessimistes du parent se realisent on montre qu une intervention ponctuelle de politique publique a un moment donne comme bannir le travail des enfants ou imposer l education obligatoire peut suffire pour deplacer un pays d un equilibre avec travail des enfants vers un equilibre sans travail des enfants

suicide bombing as inter generational investment a simple model of terrorism is presented where the current generation is linked to the next one by some altruism as in standard dynastic family models bombing today some target increases the probability of the benefit of some public good accruing to the next generation the model is used to discuss the fact that suicide bombers of the hezbollah in particular have been found by krueger and maleckova 2002 to come disproportionately from wealthy families and have an above average education level while the latter could be expected to increase the opportunity cost of investing in such a suicide it is suggested that it probably increases also the sensitivity to the future generation s welfare the latter effect might offset the deterrent effect of the former

green jobs economic impacts of renewable energy in germany abstract the labor market implications of large investment into renewable energy re are analyzed in this text although a growing re industry can be observed in germany the overall effect of large increases of re based electricity and heat generating technologies on the german economy require a careful model based analysis the applied model panta rhei has been used among others to evaluate the german energy concept in 2010 it takes positive and negative impacts of re into account the paper shows the overall effects under different assumptions for fossil fuel prices domestic installations and international trade the results are sensitive to assumptions on the development of re world markets and german exports to these markets almost all of these scenarios exhibit positive net employment effects under medium assumptions net employment of re expansion will reach around 150 thousand in 2030 only with assumptions for german re exports below today s level net impacts are slightly negative gross employment will increase from 340 thousand in 2009 to between 500 and 600 thousand in 2030

how shifting investment towards low carbon sectors impacts employment three determinants under scrutiny abstract the threat of climate change requires redirecting investment towards low carbon sectors and this shift generates heated debates about its impact on employment many studies exist most of which use cge or input output io models however the economic mechanisms at play remain unclear this paper disentangles the channels of job creation and studies to what extent the results of simpler io models diverge from cge results using stylized models we show that a shift in investment creates jobs in io if it promotes sectors with a higher share of labour in value added lower wages or a lower import rate in cge the first two channels also yield job creation but there is no positive impact of targeting low imports sectors unless these do not export then we undertake a numerical analysis of two policies the installation of solar panels and weatherization in france both policies have a positive effect on employment in both models due to the high share of labour and low wages in these sectors io results provide a good approximation of cge results for solar 14 to 34 and are slightly higher for weatherization 22 to 87 our findings challenge the idea that renewables boost employment by reducing imports but they also suggest that a double dividend can be achieved by encouraging low carbon labour intensive sectors

global environmental problems efficiency and limited altruism global environmental problems are often assumed to imply extensive inefficiencies since there is no global authority corresponding to the government at a national level this paper shows on the contrary that rich countries in a free unregulated market may still undertake globally efficient abatement investments given the existence of limited non paternalistic altruism d 2004 elsevier b v all rights reserved

multiplicative structural decomposition analysis of aggregate embodied energy and emission intensities abstract aggregate intensity indicators such as the ratio of a country s energy and emissions to its gdp are often used by researchers and policymakers to study energy and environmental performance this paper analyzes the relationship between energy or emissions and value added or gdp from a different viewpoint namely from the demand rather than the production perspective using the input output i o framework the aggregate embodied intensity aei defined as the ratio of embodied energy or emissions to embodied value added can be defined at the aggregate final demand category and sectoral levels the total aggregate intensity can be presented as a weighted sum of the aeis at the final demand category or sectoral level changes of the aei at different levels can be decomposed to identify the driving forces using multiplicative sda a study using the latest 2007 and 2012 datasets of china indicates that a its aggregate intensity of co 2 emissions was mainly determined by the aei in investment and b the emission intensity effect generally contributed the most to the aei ratio changes at different levels the proposed framework can be applied to other aggregate intensity indicators and extended to multi country region analysis

fiscal impacts of energy efficiency programmes the example of solid wall insulation investment in the uk programmes supporting the installation of energy efficiency measures typically incur a cost in the form of subsidies as well as lost vat income due to reduced energy consumption those costs are to some extent offset by the tax receipts and other revenue streams generated as a result of the activities promoted under the programme in this paper we analyse the budgetary effects of energy efficiency programmes focusing on the example of solid wall insulation in the uk three distinct subsidy options have been defined and modelled for the purpose of this research including two policies with varying degrees of direct subsidy and a low interest loan scheme our analysis shows that a significant amount of the cost of a scheme funding solid wall insulation would be offset by increased revenues and savings a loan scheme due to the high leverage achieves not only budget neutrality but generates additional revenue for the exchequer

renewable energy and employment in germany abstract the positive impacts of an increasing share of renewable energy on the mitigation of climate change as well as on the decrease of the dependency of energy imports are indisputable however one persistent problem for the german economy has been its high level of unemployment in the recent past therefore any policy strategy will be measured also by its net impact on the labor market the paper describes the results of a study that models this impact and is novel within three respects firstly an input output vector for the renewable energy sector was developed based on the results of more than 1000 interviews with an extensive questionnaire secondly gross and net effect of two different policy scenarios for germany until 2030 were calculated and thirdly the approach varies from earlier studies by its explicit modeling of export and foreign trade effects

an in depth economic restructuring framework by using particle swarm optimization abstract the aim of this paper is the development of an integrated framework based on environmental input output analysis for optimizing the economic structure of an economy the restructuring process is approached as a constraint optimization problem where the optimized variables are the elements of the matrix of domestic technical coefficients a method for determining the optimal level of the productive linkages of an economy in order to maximize its output with the minimal greenhouse gas emissions the possible is suggested the proposed methodology is able to join both environmental and economic policy targets in the form of predefined constraints the objective function which is going to be minimized expresses the greenhouse gas emissions ghg intensity or ghg emissions per unit of output a particle swarm algorithm is employed for the solution of the optimization problem an illustrative application to the greek economy was carried out the experimental results revealed that if the greek economy will apply policies for boosting the sectors of high and medium high r d intensity then the greenhouse gas emission per unit of gross domestic product of greece would be reduced furthermore the promotion of high and medium high r d intensity sectors is connected with an important improvement of the production linkages to a wide range of sectors highlighting the important spillover effect of the suggested restructuring process

food for education versus school quality a comparison of policy options to reduce child labour in a model in which credit markets play a crucial role we examine two policy options for reducing child labour food for education and investment in education quality with an imperfectly elastic supply of credit an increase in food subsidy is more eective in reducing child labour than an income equivalent increase in expenditures in education quality the eectiveness of the latter policy improves and the optimal share of resources devoted to this policy increases at the expense of food subsidies as the supply of credit becomes more elastic

social learning neighborhood effects and investment in human capital evidence from green revolution india abstract this paper empirically identifies social learning and neighborhood effects in schooling investments in a new technology regime social learning implies that learning is most efficient when observed heterogeneity in schooling is greatest the estimates of learning investment rule from farm household panel data at the onset of the green revolution in india show that i agents learn about schooling returns from income realizations of their neighbors and ii the speed of learning is high when the variation of schooling is large thus schooling distribution of the parents generation in a community has externalities to schooling investments in children simulations show that the variations in schooling within and across communities generate variations in child enrollment rate and average household income

heat or power how to increase the use of energy wood at the lowest cost abstract we compute the optimal subsidy level for fuelwood consumption that makes it possible to achieve the french biomass energy consumption target for this purpose we model the competition and trade offs between the consumption of fuelwood for heat fw h and the consumption of fuelwood for electricity fw e to do so we couple a forest sector model with an electricity simulation model and we test different scenarios combining fw h and fw e that account for contrasting potential increases in the carbon price and the potential reduction in the number of nuclear plants we assess the implications of these scenarios on 1 the budgetary costs for the government 2 industrial wood producers profits 3 cost savings in the power sector for the different scenarios tested and 4 the carbon balance we show that the scenario with the highest carbon price and the lowest number of nuclear plants is the least expensive from a budgetary perspective indeed when associated with a high carbon price co firing may increase fw e demand with a lower subsidy level which makes it possible to reduce the cost of reaching the target however in this case fw e crowds out part of fw h which may cause political and economic issues from a carbon balance perspective an fw h only scenario performs better than any other scenario that combines fw h and fw e due to the relatively low emissions factors of alternative technologies for electricity generation and in particular nuclear energy

estimating a household production function heterogeneity the demand for health inputs and their effects on birth weight the household production literature emphasizes that technical or biological processes condition input selection by households in their production activities along with prices and income exogenous variations in health to the extent that they are perceived by individuals heterogeneity lead to correlations between inputs and health outcomes that cannot be used to derive causal conclusions therefore estimates of health technology must be obtained from a behavioral model in which health inputs are themselves choices consistent estimates are reported of the effect of endogenous inputs such as medical care smoking and fertility on birth weight and fetal growth in the presence of health heterogeneity

the social return on investment in the energy efficiency of buildings in germany the german government has developed a variety of policy instruments intended to reduce national co2 emissions these instruments include a programme administered by kfw bank which aims at improving the energy efficiency of buildings it provides attractive credit conditions or subsidies to finance refurbishment measures which improve the energy efficiency of buildings significantly the refurbishment programme leads to a reduction in energy use which benefits private investors by reducing their energy bills in order to estimate whether the programme benefits society as a whole additional effects must be taken into account such as the amount of employment generated and the impact on the public budget the aim of this paper is to evaluate the social benefits of the german co2 refurbishment programme for the years 2005 2007 an extended input output model is used to estimate the effect of the refurbishment works on public revenue via taxes and social security contributions the value of avoided co2 emissions is approximated using a range of marginal damage estimates from the literature from these social benefits the programme cost is deducted the net social benefit thus computed turns out to be positive this finding suggests that the refurbishment programme is a reasonable investment of public funds

should we worry about the failure of the hotelling rule abstract the continuing dependence of the global economy on fossil fuels is worrying because it imposes limits on growth due to the non renewable nature of these resources and also contributes to global climate change resource optimists believe that this is no reason to worry because the economy will always find a way to overcome these constraints their arguments however require that resource prices reflect the scarcity of non renewable resources which implies that they must obey the hotelling rule empirical analyses however show that the hotelling rule does not hold in reality which raises the question does the failure of the hotelling rule imply that social optimality is not achieved this paper argues that the answer depends on the reason for the failure if extraction and exploration costs or technological progress in these activities are the reasons for the failure a market failure is not implied and optimality may still be achieved but if the hotelling rule fails due to uncertain property rights or strategic interaction the market will surely fail to provide an optimal solution a market failure is likely to speed up resource consumption compared to the social optimum

endogenous fertility and optimal population size pareto optimality which is the standard criterion of efficiency in general equilibrium models takes population size as given and therefore cannot be directly applied to analyze the question of optimal population size the criterion then for optimal population size must be based on a more restrictive definition of optimality this paper extends peter diamonds 1965 golden golden rule growth model by assuming that individuals derive utility from their own consumptionand from their own children offspring are assumed to consume resources before reaching adulthood the authors show that the optimal steady state utility yields a higher population growth rate when it converges to the golden rule allocation they then demonstrate that a voluntary social security program in which the size of the transfer to a particular agent is directly tied to his own fertility leads the competitive allocation to be identical to the allocation corresponding to the maximum of the steady state utility of the representative individual

changing world prices women s wages and the fertility transition sweden 1860 1910 this time series analysis examines during 1860 1910 the impact of changes in local prices of agricultural commodities on wages among men and women in sweden and the impact of changes in wages on fertility decline child mortality urbanization and improved social conditions linear ordinary least squares models are set up to determine whether demand induced increases in womens wages relative to mens are significant factors in explaining swedish total fertility rates data are obtained from 25 counties and the city of stockholm among pooled observations for six time periods during 1860 64 and 1910 14 this period is marked by a total fertility decline of 28 a marital fertility decline of 26 and a child mortality decline of 52 explanatory variables are the relative prices of main agricultural outputs employment outside of agriculture the proportion of urban population and the child mortality rate findings indicate a significant relationship between child mortality and total fertility and specific fertility rates among women aged 20 39 years a doubling of the male real wage rate was significantly associated with earlier marriage higher birth rates among women aged 15 29 years and lower birth rates among women aged 35 49 years the ratio of male wages to female wages was associated with a decline in birth rates at all ages with the exception of teenagers 66 of fertility increase was due to declines in child mortality but this increase was counterbalanced by fertility decline among older women child mortality and urbanization depressed marital fertility male wages increased the proportion married a 10 increase in the male female wage rate was associated with a 25 reduction in the total fertility rate another 25 increase in the male female wage rate was associated with a 50 reduction in child mortality it is concluded that the value of womens time had a key impact on the swedish fertility transition

modelling demand for crude oil products in spain this paper develops an econometric model for the five most important crude oil products demand in spain the aim is the estimation of a range of elasticities of such demands that would serve as the basis for an applied general equilibrium model used for forecasting energy demand in a broader framework the main distinctive features of the system with respect to previous literature are i it takes advantage of monthly information coming from very different information sources and ii multivariate unobserved components uc models are implemented allowing for a separate analysis of long and short run relations uc models decompose time series into a number of unobserved though economic meaningful components mainly trend seasonal and irregular a module is added to such structure to take into account the influence of exogenous variables necessary to compute price cross and income elasticities since all models implemented are multivariate in nature the demand components are allowed to interact among them through the system noises similar to a seemingly unrelated equations model the results show unambiguously that the main factor driving demand is real income with prices having little impact on energy consumption

population growth and human capital investments theory and evidence this paper presents evidence from empirical studies that test hypotheses derived from models of household behavior pertaining to the interrelationships among population growth human capital and economic development these studies have exploited quasi natural experiments embodied in the cross area variability in the wage rates of children in a number of low income countries the intercouple variation in the biological propensity to conceive and the geographically selective introduction of new high yielding seed varieties in india in the period 1961 71 the different varieties of evidence support the hypotheses that alterations in the returns to human capital associated with exogenous technical change lead simultaneously to increases in human capital investments and to reductions in fertility and that the costliness of fertility control is a significant but modest factor in inhibiting human capital investments

an approach of measuring environmental protection in chinese industries a study using input output model analysis abstract with a green economy making significant developments at a global scale the environmental protection industry has become an increasingly important part of china s national economy china s environmental protection industry is a strategic emerging industry and is expected to become a future pillar of the economy to promote the environmental protection industry in china and to guide environmental protection activities in various sectors the input output method was used to develop china s first environmental protection industry specifically using an externalized input output model various coefficients were measured and analyzed from the perspective of the industry chain the results reveal that the development of environmental protection activities and related environmental investment should give priority to sectors with a current shortage of environmental protection industry input concentrating on these industries will provide relatively higher benefits these industries include primary manufacturing industries the wholesale and retail marketing industries the financial industry and some sectors in second industries in addition the results of a demand and supply model reflect the fact that the environmental protection industry in china should actively promote the environmental finance and fund environmentally friendly products finally the model provides a useful tool that will allow government agencies to develop scientifically sound polices to simulate the economy and provide positive effects on investments

the impact of exogenous child mortality on fertility a waiting time regression with dynamic regressors in this paper the authors develop and implement an econometric methodology estimating a family specific exogenous component of life expectancy in order to determine the responsiveness of fertility to exogenous changes in child mortality they use a generalized waiting time regression model applied to length of life which is viewed as the output of a production process they allow for family specific heterogeneity in duration of life and for time varying explanatory variables the heterogeneity component retrieved from the production function estimation is used to estimate the impact of exogenous child mortality on a measure of fertility the data concern 1938 children from 311 families included in the 1976 malaysian family life survey this paper was previously published in econometrica chicago ill vol 51 no 3 may 1983 pp 731 49 excerpt

the evolution of green jobs in scotland a hybrid approach in support of its ambitious target to reduce co2 emissions the scottish government is aiming to have the equivalent of 100 of scottish electricity consumption generated from renewable sources by 2020 this is at least in part motivated by an expectation of subsequent employment growth in low carbon and renewable energy technologies however there is no official data source to track employment in these areas this has led to a variety of definitions methodologies and alternative estimates being produced building on a recent study bishop and brand 2013 we develop a hybrid approach which combines the detail of bottom up surveys with top down trend data to produce estimates on employment in low carbon environmental goods and services lcegs we demonstrate this methodology to produce estimates for such employment in scotland between 2004 and 2012 our approach shows how survey and official sources can combine to produce a more timely measure of employment in lcegs activities assisting policymakers in tracking consistently developments applying our approach we find that over this period employment in lcegs in scotland grew but that this was more volatile than aggregate employment and in particular that employment in this sector was particularly badly hit during the great recession

quantification and monetization of employment benefits associated with renewable energy technologies in greece abstract this paper formulates and implements an integrated approach for estimating the employment benefits associated with the exploitation of renewable energy sources res in the power sector it builds up on well known techniques and makes all the necessary modifications in order to take into account the specific conditions of the res market more specific the proposed approach exploits the input output methodology for estimating the direct indirect and induced employment effects associated with the energy technologies in question and the opportunity cost of labour approach for expressing these effects in monetary terms this framework has been implemented to estimate the employment benefits resulting from the development of different res technologies in greece taking into account both the construction and operation phases of the relative projects the results of the analysis clearly show that the exploitation of res in the greek power sector presents significant employment benefits which are at the same order of magnitude or in several cases even higher compared to the corresponding benefits attributed to the operation of fossil fueled power plants e g lignite and natural gas therefore the fulfillment of the national target for increasing the penetration of res into the greek power sector from approximately 12 today to 40 in 2020 will contribute apart from the significant environmental improvements to the overall economic development and the increase of the employment

child mortality child labour and economic development the paper presents a model where the interplay between fertility child labour and education can explain economic stagnation when parents live in an environment of high child mortality if in contrast child mortality is low the solution of the parental decision problem leads to perpetual economic growth the two long run states are connected by a path of demographic transition and economic take off along which the incidence of child labour disappears the paper also discusses alternative policies to escape from the low income equilibrium

complements versus substitutes and trends in fertility choice in dynastic models demographers emphasize decreased mortality and economic development as the main contributors generating the demographic transition contrary to previous findings we show that simple dynastic models a la barro becker can reproduce observed changes in fertility in response to decreased mortality and increased productivity growth if the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is low enough we show that this is largely due to number and welfare of children being substitutes in the utility of parents in this case we find that with an ies of one third model predictions of changes in fertility amount to two thirds of those observed in u s data since 1800 between 1800 and 2000 fertility choice in the united states underwent a dramatic transition depending on estimates it fell from about six children per woman to around two children per woman this demographic transition from a state of high fertility and high mortality to low fertility and low mortality has been documented by demographers and historians in the united states and in every other developed country in the world over this same period natural rates of population growth net of immigration also fell but less substantially demographers have not reached a consensus on the root causes of this transformation but list several changes as likely main contributors these include reductions in infant and child mortality rates imrs and cmrs and the process of industrialization and economic development the work in demography and history on this topic has largely been limited to empirical studies with almost no choice based modeling of the type seen in economics even there issues of the timing of changes