bond market exposures to macroeconomic and monetary policy risks i provide empirical evidence of changes in the u s treasury yield curve and related macroeconomic factors and investigate whether the changes are brought about by external shocks monetary policy or by both to explore this i characterize bond market exposures to macroeconomic and monetary policy risks using an equilibrium term structure model with recursive preferences in which inflation dynamics are endogenously determined in my model the key risks that affect bond market prices are changes in the correlation between growth and inflation and changes in the conduct of monetary policy using a novel estimation technique i find that the changes in monetary policy affect the level of bond yields through their effect on expected inflation while the changes in the correlation between growth and inflation affect both the level as well as the volatility of bond yields consequently the changes in the correlation structure are the main contributor to bond risk premia and to bond market volatility the time variations within a regime and risks associated with moving across regimes lead to the failure of the expectations hypothesis and to the excess bond return predictability regression of cochrane and piazzesi 2005 as in the data

learning from failure towards an evolutionary model of collaborative ventures this paper reports on a longitudinal case study of the interaction between two partners to a failed international joint venture we develop a model of the collaboration process in partnership and alliances based on earlier work by ring and van de ven 1994 and by doz 1996 we employ a series of events that occurred in the course of the relationship as the unit of analysis in order to trace the interactions between the partners and to explicate the impact that external shocks have on their perceptions of efficiency and equity the impact of these events as well as the responses they elicit on the quality of the relationship and vice versa are also considered we find that the partners assessments cause them to either engage in renegotiation of the terms of the contract or to modify their behavior unilaterally in an attempt to restore balance to the relationship the process feeds back until a new mutual understanding of equity is restored or else the relationship deteriorates gradually until a point when the venture is dissolved we conclude that positive feedback loops are critical in the evolutionary process that relationship quality is both an outcome and a mediating variable and that procedural issues are critical from the start in fostering a climate for positive reinforcement and the building of mutual trust and confidence in the relationship

evaluating natural resource investments notwithstanding impressive advances in the theory of finance over the past 2 decades practical procedures for capital budgeting have evolved only slowly the standard technique which has remained unchanged in essentials since it was originally proposed see dean 1951 bierman and smidt 1960 derives from a simple adaptation of the fisher 1907 model of valuation under certainty under this technique expected cash flows from an investment project are discounted at a rate deemed appropriate to their risk and the resulting present value is compared with the cost of the project this standard textbook technique reflects modern theoretical developments only insofar as estimates of the discount rate may be obtained from crude application of single period asset pricing theory but see brennan 1973 bogue and roll 1974 turnbull 1977 constantinides 1978 the inadequacy of this approach to capital budgeting is widely acknowledged although not widely discussed its obvious deficiency is its the evaluation of mining and other natural resource projects is made particularly difficult by the high degree of uncertainty attaching to output prices it is shown that the techniques of continuous time arbitrage and stochastic control theory may be used not only to value such projects but also to determine the optimal policies for developing managing and abandoning them the approach may be adapted to a wide variety of contexts outside the natural resource sector where uncertainty about future project revenues is a paramount concern

foreign direct investment and investment under uncertainty we show that in uncertain environments ownership and internalization advantages may be negatively rather than positively associated with fdi this reversal from extant theory occurs because ownership advantages often serve to make fdi delayable while internalization advantages often serve to make it less reversible when fdi becomes either more delayable or less reversible it is less likely to occur at a point in time our approach enriches the who where and why explanations offered by current fdi theory to incorporate the question of when

timing and real indeterminacy in monetary models an increasingly common approach to the theoretical analysis of monetary policy is to ensure that a proposed policy does not introduce real indeterminacy and thus sunspot fluctuations into the model economy policy is typically conducted in terms of directives for the nominal interest rate this paper uses a discrete time money in the utility function model to demonstrate how seemingly minor modifications in the trading environment result in dramatic differences in the policy restrictions needed to ensure real determinacy these differences arise because of the differing pricing equations for the nominal interest rate

knowledge market failure and the multinational enterprise a reply debate is an indication that an issue warrants discussion the comments of james love and donald mcfetridge in this issue are fine statements that articulate a received wisdom their comments differ with each other and these differences remind us that there is less consensus in our understanding of internalization and transaction costs than commonly supposed if we do not address all of the commentators specific points it is not for lack of appreciation but because it is our belief that a fuller vision of the terrain already mapped and that which is yet uncharted would provide a more useful basis for exploration and discovery a listing of issues is the task of a referee while a published debate might perform a useful task by laying out the contours of the research tradition and future

democracy and national economic performance the preference for stability appear to arise because democracies ameliorate the effects of social cleavages another mechanism that might explain democratic stability when growth and volatility are jointly examined democracies reveal highly favorable economic results oes democracy affect national economic performance and if so how no question is more central to the study of political economics almost all previous work on democracy and economic performance has focused exclusively on growth rates with contradictory and confusing results in this article we argue that to reveal the impact of democratic institutions on economic performance scholars must consider two dimensions of economic performance growth rate and volatility we begin with a novel hypothesis economic policy in democracy is risk avoiding relative to policy in nondemocracies 1 because voters are riskaverse they penalize incumbent governments for economic volatility and democratic governments respond accordingly in nondemocracies we posit that elites are more likely to seek risk that voters would reject consequently autocracies produce systematically more economic volatility than

monetary policy trend inflation and the great moderation an alternative interpretation with positive trend inflation the taylor principle does not guarantee a determinate equilibrium we provide new theoretical results on determinacy in new keynesian models with positive trend inflation and new empirical findings on the federal reserve s reaction function before and after the volcker disinflation to find that i while the fed likely satisfied the taylor principle before volcker the us economy was still subject to self fulfilling fluctuations in the 1970s ii the us economy switched to determinacy during the volcker disinflation and iii the switch reflected changes in the fed s response to macroeconomic variables and the decline in trend inflation jel e12 e23 e31 e32 e52

choice of foreign market entry mode impact of ownership location and internalization factors firms interested in servicing foreign markets face a difficult decision with regards to the choice of an entry mode the options available to a firm include exporting licensing joint venture and sole venture several factors that determine the choice of a specific foreign market entry mode have been identified in previous literature these factors can be classified into three categories ownership advantages of a firm location advantages of a market and internalization advantages of integrating transactions this study examines the independent and joint influences of these factors on the choice of an entry mode multinomial logistic regression model is employed to test the hypothesized effects

global strategy and multinationals entry mode choice this paper makes a case directed towards establishing the importance of global strategic considerations in choosing multinationals entry mode specifically it is our contention that beyond the environmental and transaction specific factors well established in the literature to affect the entry mode decision we should also consider the strategic relationship a multinational envisages between its operations across borders in reaching this decision after incorporating various global strategic variables into an eclectic framework of the factors influencing the entry mode choice this paper tests both the validity of the overall framework and the importance of each entry mode determinant in differ entiating among entry modes this is done based on ninety six multinational managers responses to a survey questionnaire concerning their entry mode decision experiences the results suggest that an express incorporation of global strategic variables into an analysis of the entry mode decision is warranted

the eclectic paradigm of international production a restatement and some possible extensions this article reviews some of the criticisms directed towards the eclectic paradigm of international production over the past decade and restates its main tenets the second part of the article considers a number of possible extensions of the paradigm and concludes by asserting that it remains a robust general framework for explaining and analysing not only the economic rationale of economic production but many organisational and impact issues in relation to mne activity as well

real options theory in international business the last quarter century has witnessed substantial growth in applications of real options theory rot to international business ib research in this review we explicate the core rot concepts in the ib context and discuss the contributions of rot based research to three core ib issues timing and scale of market entry or exit entry mode and governance form and the role of multinational networks based on our review we propose a holistic rot view of the multinational enterprise that synthesizes the insights of existing studies finally to move the field forward we highlight key questions and challenges in current rot based work provide a more precise definition of exogenous and endogenous uncertainty suggest empirical designs to test unique rot predictions and explore areas where rot can be combined with other theoretical perspectives to better understand ib phenomena

the optimal timing of a foreign direct investment analyses of the optimal timing of foreign direct investment fdi decisions have been curiously lacking in the general literature on multinational enterprises cf buckley 1979a b although comparative static analyses exist comparing exporting to the host country with market servicing from a production unit sited in the host country horst 1971 hirsh 1976 the only attempt to predict the timing of the switch from exporting to foreign based production is that of aliber 1970 although vernon 1966 gives a cost based rationale for the switch this chapter attempts to fill this gap in the theory of fdi section 2 1 outlines and criticises previous attempts to deal with the problem sections 2 2 4 present a simple model which ignores set up costs and sections 2 5 and 2 6 give a more detailed analysis including such costs further extensions of the theory are considered in section 2 7 and the conclusions are summarised in section 2 8 the problem emerges as being more complex than had previously been appreciated

investment in new foreign subsidiaries under receding perception of uncertainty research on foreign direct investment has focused considerable attention on the moment of market entry but less on the dynamics of investment in the post entry phase this paper centres the influence of uncertainty on investment and develops a growth options model to explain the sequence of investment in new foreign subsidiaries in a learning process that starts at entry investors perceive receding levels of uncertainty and shift their reason for investment from option values towards net present values the findings of a panel study of 634 german subsidiaries support the propositions and reveal the potential of the real options approach to improve the understanding of internationalisation processes

knowledge transfer in international acquisitions this paper reports on a multimethod study of knowledge transfer in international acquisitions using questionnaire data we show that the transfer of technological know how is facilitated by communication visits meetings and by time elapsed since acquisition while the transfer of patents is associated with the articulability of the knowledge the size of the acquired unit and the recency of the acquisition using case study data we show that the immediate post acquisition period is characterized by imposed one way transfers of knowledge from the acquirer to the acquired but over time this gives way to high quality reciprocal knowledge transfer

time varying rational expectations models abstract this paper develops a comprehensive theory for rational expectations models with time varying random coefficients based on the multiplicative ergodic theorem it develops a linear algebra in terms of lyapunov exponents defined as the asymptotic growth rates of trajectories together with their associated lyapunov spaces they provide a perfect substitute for the eigenvalue eigenspace analysis used in constant coefficient models in particular they allow the construction of explicit solution formulas similar to the standard case these methods and their numerical implementation is illustrated using a canonical new keynesian model with a time varying policy rule and lagged endogenous variables

the effects of corporate restructuring on aggregate industry specialization it has been widely argued that the purpose of corporate restructuring during the 1980s was to produce a population of more industry specialized competitive firms in response to intensifying global competition a number of studies show that corporate restructuring resulted in increased corporate focus during the 1980s however no study has yet examined whether corporate restructuring resulted in increased specialization at the industry level during the 1980s this study examines this issue first we examine whether or not aggregate industry specialization increased during the 1980s that is we ask did the average firm in any given u s industry become more or less specialized to that industry during the 1980s second we examine whether corporate restructuring was a significant determinant of change in aggregate industry specialization during the 1980s using a sample of 686 four digit sic industries and 64 two digit industry groups this study finds that aggregate industry specialization declined very slightly at both the four digit and two digit level between 1981 and 1989 this study also finds that sell offs of establishments through corporate control transactions or interfirm asset sales had no significant effect on aggregate industry specialization

controlling inflation with timid monetary fiscal regime changes can monetary policy control inflation when both monetary and fiscal policies change over time when monetary policy is active a long run fiscal principle entails flexibility in fiscal policy that preserves determinacy even when deviating from passive fiscal substantially for brief periods or timidly for prolonged periods in order to guarantee a unique equilibrium monetary and fiscal policies must coordinate not only within but also across regimes and not simply on being active or passive but also on their extent the amplitude of deviations from the active monetary passive fiscal benchmark determines whether a regime is ricardian timid deviations do not imply wealth effects

optimal sequential investment when capital is not readily reversible when investment opportunities arrive one at a time and are reviewed sequentially a corporation s optimal policy differs from a standard net present value rule if the corporation exercises control over an industry state variable and control is costly the first condition presupposes a degree of market power for the firm the second occurs if corporate investment decisions are imperfectly reversible to address the problem of optimal investment in this context a firm s investment decisions are modeled as a markov reward process the causes of economic irreversibility are discussed and general propositions concerning the optimal investment policy are derived these propositions are then applied to the optimization of an exploration program by an oligopolistic firm a price leader under particular demand and distributional assumptions solutions for the optimal decision rule and the value of the exploration program are obtained and their properties examined current investment may affect future opportunities by creating growth opportunities as defined by myers 16 see also spence 25 or by reducing the value of an existing opportunity set despite the known potential for these interactions capital budgeting techniques such as net present valuation scenario planning and monte carlo simulation focus exclusively on the stand alone value of an investment the capacity for modeling interactions is present in the multiperiod models of merton 16 bogue and roll 5 and others the absence of applications however is evidence that actual economic interactions between current and future opportunities are not well understood this paper develops a model of a firm facing a sequence of interdependent growth opportunities opportunities have positive net present values because the firm exercises market power in its product market current investment changes the value of future opportunities through its effect on a product market variable the model is used to examine the impact of demand industry structure and technology on optimal investment rules and on the value of aggregate growth

strategic investments by us firms in transition economies studies in international business have considered both theoretical and empirical analyses of investment strategies by multinational firms in transition economies however there is scant research on the impact of firm specific factors on the likelihood timing and mode of entry decisions in these economies we provide evidence on three aspects of the strategic decisions by us firms to invest in transition economies first we find that firms entering the region have greater advertising intensity and sales growth than industry peers that did not enter the region suggesting that market seeking considerations motivate expansion second we find that earlier entry is undertaken by firms with fewer industry competitors and higher sales growth suggesting that the desire to secure market share ahead of competitors motivates entry timing finally we investigate the choice of entry mode into the region and find that firms from concentrated industries are more likely to enter the region with high equity commitment consistent with market seeking motives we also find that firms incorporate the degree of progress with market oriented reforms in making decisions concerning entry timing and mode

on the existence of a political monetary cycle this paper examines electoral influence on monetary policy as measured by ml money growth i find a significant four year electoral cycle in money growth even when controlling for the influence of interest rates income and budget deficits further the residual electoral cycle produces the income and inflation movements associated with the political business cycle when it is used in simulations of simple reduced form macro models the paper concludes by discussing the difficulties in rationalizing cyclical monetary policy with rational expectations

the effect of domestic uncertainty on the real options value of international investments scholars have noted that international investments have the potential to provide firms with real options value under uncertainty to assess this issue prior studies have tended to focus primarily on exchange rate volatility although multinational firms face other types of uncertainty as well including those stemming from their domestic operating environment the role of such uncertainty for firms flexibility needs has not been previously considered in this study we compare the influence of both domestic economic uncertainty and exchange rate uncertainty on the real option value of international investments of korean firms over 16 years of varying uncertainty we find evidence that an international investment network characterized by greater breadth and lower depth is associated with higher firm value under domestic economic uncertainty exchange rate uncertainty however was not found to play a role in firms need for flexibility the results suggest that firms are able to hedge exchange rate uncertainty by using mechanisms such as forward contracts or derivatives thus potentially reducing the impact of this type of uncertainty on their operations

high trend inflation and passive monetary detours abstract does the long run taylor principle davig and leeper 2007 hold when both monetary and fiscal policies can switch and there is positive trend inflation we find that with high trend inflation passive monetary detours are no longer possible whatever fiscal policy is in place this has important policy implications in terms of flexibility and monetary fiscal authorities coordination

bailout for sale the vote to save wall street this paper provides a public choice analysis of the 2008 banking bailout in the united states the paper introduces heterogeneity of congressional districts into the common agency problem in special interest politics district heterogeneity implies district specific electoral constraints on legislators ability to collect rents from and cast dissonant votes in support of special interests an empirical analysis examines legislative voting on the initial bailout proposal using campaign contributions to legislators from special interest groups and the importance of financial services for employment within congressional districts as the main explanatory variables the empirical analysis corrects for possible endogeneity bias using valid instruments and considers several intuitive sub sample estimations as alternative methods for addressing the endogeneity issue the paper provides empirical evidence that campaign contributions from the financial services sector influenced legislative voting on the banking bailout

timing of investment and international expansion performance in china this study examines the multivariate and univariate performance effects of timing of fdi in an emerging economy at the business unit level a longitudinal analysis of industry wide firm specific data on fdi timing and foreign venture performance in china reveals that timing has a significant influence on overall as well as on individual aspects of venture performance it is observed that early entrants outperform late movers in terms of local market expansion and asset turnover whereas late movers are superior to early entrants with regard to risk reduction and accounting return during the initial period of international expansion factor analysis confirms that the importance of timing in affecting fdi decisions is as significant as that of internalization ownership or location factors

the effect of national culture on the choice of entry mode characteristics of national cultures have frequently been claimed to influence the selection of entry modes this article investigates this claim by developing a theoretical argument for why culture should influence the choice of entry two hypotheses are derived which relate culture to entry mode choice one focusing on the cultural distance between countries the other on attitudes towards uncertainty avoidance using a multinomial logit model and controlling for other effects the hypotheses are tested by analysing data on 228 entries into the united states market by acquisition wholly owned greenfield and joint venture empirical support for the effect of national culture on entry choice is found

flexibility versus commitment mnes ownership strategy in china we investigate the following important questions in international business how do multinational enterprises mnes choose ownership strategies when facing strong uncertainty in foreign market entries how are the choices affected by industry contingencies following the key tenets of real options theory we propose that under a high level of market uncertainty mnes choose more flexible rather than more committed ownership strategies that allow adjustment of investment decisions in future we further suggest that using flexible strategies in response to uncertainty becomes less valuable for mnes when the industry they enter in the host country enjoys strong sales growth potential requires less irreversible investments and has intense competition empirically we analyze the ownership strategies ownership structure and equity share of over 5000 new foreign investments in manufacturing industries in china during 2000 2006 we find qualified support for our hypotheses and discuss the industry boundary conditions of adopting flexible ownership strategies in foreign market entries

regime switches agents beliefs and post world war ii u s macroeconomic dynamics the evolution of inflation and output over the last 50 years is examined through the lens of a micro founded model that allows for changes in the behavior of the federal reserve and in the volatility of structural shocks agents are aware of the possibility of regime changes and their beliefs have an impact on the law of motion underlying the macroeconomy the results support the view that there were regime switches in the conduct of monetary policy however the behavior of the federal reserve is identified by repeated fluctuations between a hawk and a dove regime instead of by the traditional pre and post volcker structure counterfactual simulations show that if agents had anticipated the appointment of an extremely conservative chairman inflation would not have reached the peaks of the late 70s and the inflation output trade off would have been less severe these beliefs counterfactuals are new in the literature finally the paper provides a bayesian algorithm to handle the technical difficulties that arise in a rational expectations model with markov switching regimes

credit default swaps and the credit crisis many observers have argued that credit default swaps contributed significantly to the credit crisis of particular concern to these observers are that credit default swaps trade in the largely unregulated over the counter market as bilateral contracts involving counterparty risk and that they facilitate speculation involving negative views of a firm s financial strength some observers have suggested that credit default swaps would not have made the crisis worse had they traded on exchanges i conclude that credit default swaps did not cause the dramatic events of the credit crisis that the over the counter credit default swaps market worked well during much of the crisis and that exchange trading has both advantages and costs compared to over the counter trading though i argue that eliminating over the counter trading of credit default swaps could reduce social welfare i also recognize that much research is needed to understand better and to quantify the social gains and costs of derivatives in general and credit default swaps in particular

a critical assessment of the eclectic theory of the multinational enterprise the paper critically deals with the electric theory of the multinational enterprise it examines firstly the theoretical redundancy of the ownership advantage secondly the inseparability of the ownership advantage from the location advantage thirdly the conceptual ambiguity of the location advantage and lastly possible methodological dangers of a multi factor analysis under the three headings of the eclectic theory

debt deflation financial market stress and regime change evidence from europe using mrvar the economic meltdown since 2008 9 has created disinflation and even deflation in some countries in the euro area in a period with large debt overhang creating the condition for a continuing financial market stress in the euro area as disinflation and deflation push up the real interest rate while growth and income declines the leveraging problem becomes more severe and the economy risks shifting into a regime with high insolvency risk high financial stress rising credit spreads possibly accompanied by strong adverse macroeconomic feedback loops investigating the consequences of those magnifying feedback loops given the debt deflation we demonstrate the possibility of unstable dynamics and downward spirals in the presence of regime dependent macro feedback loops using a theoretical model with decentralized matching mechanisms on both labor and financial markets to explore the amplifying linkages between deflation output labor and financial markets we employ a new solution procedure called nmpc to solve our models variants for out of steady state dynamics we empirically explore deflationary trends in europe and employ a global var gvar model for a large euro area macro data set to estimate the impact of deflation on output moreover we use a four variable multi regime var mrvar model with regime dependent irs to study deflationary as well as well as the financial risk drivers in a mrvar setting new measures for financial risk drivers are employed and multi regime irs for output inflation rates interest rates and financial stress are explored we also study regime changes in central macro relationships such as regime change in the credit output link the phillips curve and in okun s law

firm ownership preferences and host government restrictions an integrated approach two approaches may explain how multinational enterprises mnes select ownership structures for subsidiaries the first argues that mnes prefer structures that minimize that transaction costs of doing business abroad the second argues that ownership structures are determined by negotiations with host governments whose outcomes depend on the bargaining power of the firm this paper presents a framework integrating these two approaches and uses statistical methods to separate their effects empirically

international expansion of telecommunication carriers the influence of market structure network characteristics and entry imperfections this paper examines the internationalization process of telecommunication carriers in this industry early entrants gain substantial first mover advantages due to the transient nature of the windows of market opportunity and the potential to influence the regulatory process as an incumbent to capture these strategic and economic advantages firms follow a strategy of preemption both of markets and partners the authors argue for the need to augment prevailing theory with contextual idiosyncrasies that characterize specific industries

foreign investor reactions to risk and uncertainty in antitrust u s merger policy investigations and the deterrence of foreign acquirer presence motivated by the potential for antitrust and competition policies to be protectionist in effect we formulate the theoretical prior that merger policy deters foreign acquirer participation in local m a markets the policy risk and policy uncertainty characteristic of merger review may negatively affect foreign acquirers more so than domestic acquirers thereby disadvantaging foreign acquisitions of local firms and deterring future cross border investment activities we test this prior by employing sector level data on u s merger policy investigations and foreign acquirer presence in u s m a markets over the 2002 2017 period our panel data methodological approach indicates that the risk and uncertainty characteristic of u s merger policy disproportionately deters the acquisition activities of foreign investors the empirical results also suggest that the application of competition and merger policies in other national jurisdictions where there is less of a strong commitment to antitrust principles might also be effectively protectionist

problems and developments in the core theory of international business the established theory of international business is not without problems it is necessary to specify the key relationships between internalisation and market structure and between internalisation and competitive advantage more carefully this chapter attempts to clarify the former relationship by reference to the work of hymer and the latter by contrasting the nature of internalisation decisions with those building short run competitive advantage avenues of development of the theory include the integration of non traditional concepts and the reintegration of areas of research which have become divorced from core international business theory

cultural influences on national rates of innovation abstract the purpose of this research was to examine the effect of the cultural values of individualism power distance uncertainty avoidance and masculinity on national rates of innovation in 33 countries in 1975 and 1980 the study found that rates of innovation are most closely associated with the cultural value of uncertainty acceptance but that lack of power distance and individualism also are related to high rates of innovation this research suggests that nations may differ in their rates of innovation because of the cultural values of their citizens these findings have important implications for managers and policy makers first culture matters countries may not be able to increase their rates of innovation simply by increasing the amount of money spent on research and development or industrial infrastructure they also may need to change the values of their citizens to those that encourage innovative activity this concept in turn suggests that national rates of innovation are driven by more fundamental forces than economic conditions and that societal change may be necessary to make less innovative societies more innovative second the values associated with high national rates of innovation are those that many scholars have long argued are important at the firm level an acceptance of uncertainty appears to be necessary probably because innovation requires a tolerance for risk and change individualism seems to be important perhaps because of its association with autonomy independence and freedom lack of power distance appears important perhaps reflecting the role that tolerance of change in the social order and distribution of power play in the innovation process third the study indicates that the strength of the relationship between innovation and two cultural values individualism and lack of power distance were stronger in 1975 than in 1980 suggesting perhaps that these values are becoming less important in spurring the innovation process this finding supports the anecdotal evidence that many collectivist and hierarchical asian nations are becoming more innovative fourth this study shows that per capita income is a more important economic variable than industrial structure in determining national rates of innovation this finding confirms previous work that has shown that as nations become wealthier they become more innovative the reason may be that wealthier countries have more demand for innovations both because innovations are often laborsaving and because wealthier nations have greater demand for new and differentiated consumer goods

dyadic military conflict security alliances and bilateral fdi flows although multinationals operate under cross border jurisdictions the relevance of interstate security relations to international business has received little attention despite the impressive accumulation of knowledge in international business and international relations the two intellectual communities have largely ignored the insights from each other in this article we seek to bridge this gap we argue that interstate military conflict and security alliances as two central features of interstate security relations often change both government policies toward international business and investor expectations of political risk from the perspectives of both states and investors military conflict should reduce bilateral investment whereas security alliances increase it our empirical analysis applies the system gmm estimator to a gravity model of bilateral investment flows for 1117 directed dyads among 58 countries from 1980 to 2000 among 18 countries whose per capita real incomes remain consistently above 12 000 constant dollars the security factors do not affect bilateral investment in the high income low income dyads interstate military conflict and security alliances significantly influence bilateral investment as expected the findings depict two separate realms in which international politics does and does not interfere with international business helping us improve political risk assessments and understand the interactions between states and firms

it s not me it s you the functioning of wall street during the 2008 economic downturn public officials have blamed wall street and its complex financial products for causing the 2008 economic downturn this article addresses three popular claims saying that complex financial markets are at fault and need more regulation it argues that even in the midst of a major economic downturn the much maligned mortgage backed securities collateralized debt obligations credit default swaps and unregistered hedge funds functioned almost exactly as designed when macroeconomic conditions worsened firms and investors that were paid to assume certain risks had to assume them those that opted for safer investment vehicles with more levels of private protection faced fewer problems although many investment vehicles lost money one must differentiate between problems that manifested themselves in markets and problems with the market itself even though government policies caused many of the problems public officials always have an incentive to point the finger at wall street and to argue for more regulations when their policies negatively affect markets

letter from the editor in chief time in international business issue 40 4 consists of eight articles seven of which were acceptedfor publication by former jibs editor in chief arie y lewin andone under my watch while each of the articles makes importantcontributions to our knowledge of international business ib studies i would like to highlight those that are related to time time in ibeconomists think of time in terms of statics comparative staticsand dynamics static analyses focus on equilibrium situations e g the price where quantity demanded equals quantity supplied comparative statics focuses on pre vs post situations when anexogenous change affects behavior and outcomes e g changes inincome or tastes affect market price dynamic analyses trace thepath or processes for beginnings transitions and endings whetheralone or in a coevolutionary framework much and perhaps most ib research either ignores time orfocuses solely on the comparative statics of predicting how achange in the business environment or government policies attime t affects mne strategies and performance at time t

election results and opportunistic policies a new test of the rational political business cycle model the literature on the rational pbc suggests that politicians systematically manipulate economic and fiscal conditions before elections to increase their chances of reelection most tests of this theory look for evidence of pre election distortions in fiscal policy we propose a new test that explores the two way interaction between the magnitude of the opportunistic distortion and the margin of victory the test is implemented using a large panel of portuguese municipalities the results show that opportunism leads to a larger win margin for the incumbent and that incumbents behave more opportunistically when their win margin is small these results are consistent with the theoretical model

models of the multinational enterprise flexibility is identified as the hallmark of recent modelling of the multinational enterprise the focus on flexibility is a response to the rationalization and restructuring of international business which has occurred since the end of the golden age of western economic growth flexibility has been south in factor markets intermediate product markets and markets for final products it has been sought by both governments and firms flexible firms are attracted to locations with flexible host governments this article contrasts the modern research agenda based on flexibility with the more traditional research agenda which predominates in the literature reviewed by caves 1996

when does the cost channel pose a challenge to inflation targeting central banks abstract in a sticky price model where firms finance their production inputs there is both a lower and an upper bound on the central bank s inflation response necessary to rule out the possibility of self fulfilling inflation expectations this paper shows that real wage rigidities decrease this upper bound but coefficients in the range of those on the taylor rule place the economy well within the determinacy region however when there is time variation in the share of firms who finance their inputs i e markov switching then inflation targeting interest rate rules frequently result in indeterminacy even if the central bank also targets output adding a nominal growth target to the policy rule can often alleviate this indeterminacy and therefore anchor inflation expectations

financial performance and survival of multinational corporations in china this study investigates the impact of entry timing mode of entry market focus and location advantages on the financial performance and survival of multinational corporations mncs in china three major results were found first mncs that entered china in an earlier year had a higher level of profit than those that entered in a later year second equity joint ventures ejvs had a higher profit level than cooperative operations or wholly foreign owned subsidiaries third mncs that utilized well the location advantages in china had a higher profit we also found that ejvs were more likely to survive compared to cooperative operations while wholly owned subsidiaries did not differ from ejvs the findings are based on a 2 year study of about 1000 mnc operations in china copyright 1999 john wiley sons ltd

dodging bullets the heterogeneous effect of political violence on greenfield fdi the relationship between political violence and greenfield foreign direct investment is contingent on the type of violence characteristics of the investment receiving sector and extent to which the investing firm is geographically diversified this paper presents an analysis with a dynamic fixed effects model for a panel of 90 developing countries from 2003 to 2012 the analysis shows that nationwide political conflict is negatively associated with total and non resource related greenfield foreign direct investment but not with resource related greenfield foreign direct investment the insensitivity to political conflict of multinational firms in the resource sector is associated with the high profitability of natural resource extraction and the companies geographic constraints on location choice during the period of estimation in the non resource sector the less geographically diversified firms are most sensitive to the risk of conflict

mnes location strategies and labor standards the role of operating and reputational considerations across industries we investigate the role of local labor standards on mnes location decisions across different sectors and sub national regions within a developing country we suggest that foreign investors adopt selective location strategies in connection with specific labor standards as a result of reputational and operating considerations foreign firms in more hazardous sectors prefer locations with higher occupational health and safety standards because they are more exposed to reputational risks those in sectors with less reversible investments prefer locations with lower degrees of unionization because their lower bargaining power increases their sensitivity to operating costs we test our arguments across 26 sub national turkish regions over the period 2005 2011

the cooperative venture formation process a latent variable structural modeling approach this article addresses management process issues for forming cooperative ventures with an increased likelihood of subsequent success based on roos 1989 the cooperative venture formation process is conceptualized in terms of three theoretical constructs the extent of sufficient internal push for the project the breadth and depth of analytical scope and the strength of key stakeholder support these constructs are related to subsequent perceived performance data from sixty seven firms were collected and analyzed via latent variable structural modeling a partial least square pls one key contribution of this article is the modeling approach to strategic formation process it contributes to an existing but not very well developed theory regarding strategy formation processes the pls method used in this study is quite unique within strategy research as such it contributes to methodology development in the strategy research field the main managerial implication is that the process by which a cooperative venture is formed should largely be seen as a step by step approach not a discrete decision if the three fundamentals discussed in the article are thoroughly addressed we can up the ante for success during implementation and therefore subsequent performance

were there regime switches in u s monetary policy working paper 2004 14 june 2004 abstract a multivariate model identifying monetary policy and allowing for simultaneity and regime switching in coefficients and variances is confronted with u s data since 1959 the best fit is with a model that allows time variation in structural disturbance variances only among models that also allow for changes in equation coefficients the best fit is for a model that allows coefficients to change only in the monetary policy rule that model allows switching among three main regimes and one rarely and briefly occurring regime the three main regimes correspond roughly to periods when most observers believe that monetary policy actually differed and the differences in policy behavior are substantively interesting though statistically ill determined the estimates imply monetary targeting was central in the early 80s but was also important sporadically in the 70s the changes in regime were essential neither to the rise in inflation in the 70s nor to its decline in the 80s jel classification e52 e47 c53 key words counterfactuals lucas critique policy rule monetary targeting simultaneity volatility model comparison i the debate over monetary policy change in an influential paper clarida gali and gertler 2000 cgg presented evidence that us monetary policy changed between the 1970 s and the 1980 s indeed that in the 70 s it was drastically worse they found that the policy rule apparently followed in the 70 s was one that when embedded in most stochastic general equilibrium models would imply non uniqueness of the equilibrium and hence vulnerability of the economy to sunspot fluctuations of arbitrarily large size their estimated policy rule for the later period on the other hand eliminated this indeterminacy these results are a possible explanation of the volatile and rising inflation of the 70 s and of its subsequent decline the cgg analysis has two important weaknesses one is that it fails to account for stochastic volatility us macroeconomic variables and particularly the federal funds rate have gone through periods of tranquility and of agitation with forecast error variances varying greatly from period to period ignoring such variation does not lead to inconsistent estimates of model parameters when the forecasting equations themselves are constant but it strongly biases toward a finding of changed parameters tests of the stability of the forecasting equations the other weakness is that the cgg analysis rests on powerful and implausible identifying assumptions they require that we accept that the response of the monetary authority to expected future inflation and output does not depend on the recent history of inflation money growth or output it is hard to understand why this should be so especially in the 70 s when monetarism was a prominent theme in policy debates congress was requiring reports from the fed of projected time paths of monetary aggregates and financial markets were reacting sensitively to weekly money supply numbers the requirement for existence and uniqueness of equilibrium in dynamic models is that the monetary policy rule show a more than unit response of interest rates to the sum of the logs of all nominal variables that appear on the right hand side of the reaction function if we force a particular measure of expected future inflation to proxy for all the nominal variables that actually appear independently in the reaction function we are bound to get distorted conclusions on the one hand because expected future inflation will be a noisy measure of the full set of nominal influences on policy we might get downward bias in our estimates from the usual errorsin variables effect on the other hand to the extent that expected future inflation like most expected future values shows less variation than current nominal variables we could find a mistaken scaling up of coefficients

monetary policy regime switches and macroeconomic dynamics this article considers the determinacy and distributional consequences of regime switching in monetary policy although switching in the inflation target does not affect determinacy switches in the inflation response can cause indeterminacy satisfying the taylor principle period by period is neither necessary nor sufficient for determinacy when inflation responses switch indeterminacy can arise if monetary policy responds too aggressively to inflation in the active regime inflation target switches primarily impact the level of inflation whereas inflation response switches primarily impact the volatility expecting an inflation target switch has minor effects on volatility whereas expecting an inflation response switch raises volatility more substantially

innovation in multinational corporations control and communication patterns in international r d operations this paper addresses issues of global innovation in multinational corporations by examining the patterns of communication and control in international rd 2 local and international adaptors both focus their communication on their internal corporate network and 3 international creators have strong internally and externally oriented networks of relationships the implications for the management of global innovation are discussed 1998 john wiley sons ltd

licensing duration in foreign markets a real options perspective licensing can be considered an initial trial of a foreign market before a firm fully commits to it through other investment modes the length of trial has great importance because licensing duration represents part of the licensing agreement when it is too short the firm may not acquire the necessary experience and knowledge of the foreign market but if it is too long the firm misses optimal expansion timing arguing that licensing can be considered as a european style real option with a fixed holding period we develop and test a model of the determinants of licensing duration in foreign markets empirical results based on a sample of firms in various countries show that uncertainty and threat of competitive pre emption in the foreign market are related to shorter duration of the technology licensing agreements we also find that irreversibility of the impending investment moderates the relationships between uncertainty and duration specifically market and technology uncertainties in the foreign market induce shorter contracts under low levels of irreversibility

a theory of entangled political economy with application to tarp and nra the recent financial crisis has provoked a raft of contending claims as to whether the cause of the crisis is better attributed to market failure or political failure such claims are predicated on a presumption that markets and polities are meaningfully separate entities to the contrary we argue that contemporary arrangements create an entangled political economy that renders theorizing based on separation often misleading within this alternative framework of entangled political economy we illuminate both the recent troubled assets relief program tarp and the new deal s national recovery administration nra

recovery and reinvestment act spending at the state level keynesian stimulus or distributive politics we examine the us state level pattern of american recovery and reinvestment act arra spending we relate spending to 1 keynesian determinants of countercyclical policy 2 congressional power and dominance and 3 presidential electoral vote importance we find that the arra is in practice poorly designed countercyclical stimulus after controlling for political variables coefficients on keynesian variables are often statistically insignificant when they are statistically significant they are often the incorrect sign on the other hand statistically significant effects are associated with majority party house of representative appropriations subcommittee and authorization committee membership one striking result is that the elasticity of arra spending with respect to the pre arra ratio of federal grants and payments to federal taxes paid is estimated to be greater than unity in most specifications states previously capturing large amounts of federal funds continue to do so under the arra stimulus

the drivers of foreign direct investment into research and development an empirical investigation this paper examines the determinants of foreign direct investment fdi in research and development laboratories by 32 multinational enterprises in the pharmaceutical and electronics industries the paper applies a dichotomous set of motives for fdi results from an econometric analysis of 136 laboratory investments show that relative market size and relative strength of a country s science base determine whether fdi in research and development is carried out in order to exploit existing firm specific advantages or in order to build up new firm specific advantages this holds true in similar form for japanese european and u s firms and across the two industries

the influence of hymer s dissertation on the theory of foreign derect investment the great contribution of stephen hymer s seminal dissertation 1960 was to escape from the intellectual straightjacket of neoclassical type trade and financial theory and move us towards an analysis of the multinational enterprise mne based upon industrial organization theory the magnitude of this breakthrough can be put into perspective by considering the state of the art when hymer wrote twenty five years ago in 1960 the prevailing explanation of international capital movements relied exclusively upon a neoclassical financial theory of portfolio flows in this frictionless world of perfect competition with no transaction costs capital moves in response to changes in interest rate or profit differentials see carl iversen 1936 according to this arbitrage theory capital is assumed to be transacted between independent buyers and sellers that is there is no role for the mne at the time there was no separate theory of foreign direct investment fdi the work did not even ask the question of why is there fdi despite the evidence of sectoral cross investments and the existence of large mnes with intra industry trade if anything the early work on fdi focused upon the where of investment in a particular nation or industry for example dunning 1958 was chiefly interested in explaining u s fdi in britain there was little interest in understanding the reasons for the mne or the nature of its operations the pioneering conceptual insight of hymer was to break out of the arid mold of international trade and investment theory and focus attention upon the mne per se this permits us to treat fdi as a modality by which firms extend their territorial horizons abroad the unique feature of fdi is a mechanism by which the mne maintains control over productive activities outside its national boundaries that is fdi means international production in this view fdi is more than a process by which assets or claims are exchanged internationally see robert aliber 1970 1983 hymer s great insight was in focusing attention upon the mne as the institution for international production rather than international exchange until hymer articulated the process of fdi as an international extension of industrial organization theory it was not possible to understand why the mne transfers intermediate products such as knowledge or technology among its units across different nations while still retaining property rights over such assets today it is widely recognized that the theory of fdi i e international production is primarily about the transfer of nonfinancial and ownershipspecific intangible assets by the mne which needs to appropriate and control the rate of use of its internalized advantage s see rugman 1981 david teece 1981 1982 richard caves 1982 and mark casson 1983 in this paper we first acknowledge hymer s contribution to the theory of fdi and then move on to reinterpret his dissertation in the light of the modern theory of the mne we tdiscussants raymond vernon harvard university robert z aliber university of chicago paul streeten boston university

multinational enterprise internal governance and industrial organization abstractthe following sections are included monopoly vs efficiency interpretations of the multinational enterprisehost country controlsdynamic considerationsconclusionreferences this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

letter from the editor in chief the jibs decade award integrating international acquisitions the 2009 jibs decade awardthe first issue of jibs each year begins with a reprint of the articlethat won the previous year s jibs decade award followed bya retrospective written by the author or authors and one ormore invited commentaries the 2009 award winning article is knowledge transfer in international acquisitions by henrikbresman julian birkinshaw and robert nobel published in 1999 jibs 30 3 the jibs decade award recognizes the most influential articlepublished in the volume 10 years ago the 2009 selectioncommittee members were stephen tallman chair torbenpedersen 2009 aib program chair john cantwell 2008 aibprogram chair and the jibs editor in chiefasanexofficiomember the award is presented by palgrave macmillan duringa special session honoring the authors at the annual meetingof the academy of international business aib the 2009 aibsession in san diego was chaired by thejibs editor in chief julianbirkinshawspokeonbehalfoftheauthors andalainverbeke and udo zander provided commentaries after the conference the presentations were revised sent out forsingle blind review to selected jibs area and consulting editors and also circulated among the authors to encourage cross fertilizing of ideas the end product i believe is a wonderful setof papers that should and will be read together and i suspectoften assigned as a set for phd seminars i thank all the area andconsulting editors who read these manuscripts and provided suchthoughtful comments for the authors the first paper in this issue of jibs is a reprint of the decadeaward winning article by bresman birkinshaw and nobel thearticle is a qualitative study of the post acquisition integrationprocess in three international acquisitions by swedish multi nationals the authors argue that successful acquisitions createa social community where two way knowledge sharing occursbetween the acquirer and acquired firms the reprinted article is followed by knowledge transfer ininternational acquisitions a retrospective by birkinshaw bresmanand nobel the retrospective explores the origins of their award winning article situating it in the knowledge based view of themultinational enterprise mne kogut zander 1993 they arguethat their paper makes three contributions to the internationalbusiness ib literature mapping out the territory comparing the

does trade openness matter for aggregate instability abstract this paper presents a cash in advance model of a small open economy and shows that whether an inflation targeting interest rate rule introduces aggregate instability depends in general on the degree of openness to international trade this result emerges regardless of whether prices are sticky or flexible in a closed economy as the monetary authority responds to movements in inflation the resulting changes in interest rates affect aggregate consumption through an intertemporal substitution effect and an inflation tax effect in a small open economy this policy also induces changes in the terms of trade which depending on the degree of openness can generate counteracting effects on consumption as a consequence the implications of interest rate rules on macroeconomic stability in an open economy differ from those in a closed economy

the timing and probability of fdi an application to us multinational enterprises an option pricing model is employed to analyse the timing of fdi assuming that the firm s profits are determined by the attractiveness of both the home and foreign countries and that attractiveness follows a brownian motion an optimal trigger value of fdi is derived the model shows that contrary to the npv rule fdi entry should be delayed the greater the uncertainty of attractiveness in both locations another important result is that mnes do not regard fdi as a risk diversification tool the results of the model were then tested empirically with us fdi data using labour costs as a proxy for the reciprocal of attractiveness the results support the findings of the analytical model

timing of entry in international market an empirical study of u s fortune 500 firms in china this study attempts to explain the timing of entry of firms in international markets based on the existing literature we propose a framework that consists of firm specific factors industry market factors and host country factors empirical results based on the entry information of u s fortune 500 firms in china between 1979 and 1996 show that larger firms with greater level of internalization and scope economies are likely to enter this foreign market earlier in addition non equity modes competitors behavior in the product market and lower levels of country risk are significantly associated with early entry

does post ante investment experience matter lessons from fdi in china ample efforts of fdi literature have researched on the motives and determinants of fdi flows based on ex ante conditions little has been studied with regard to the effects of post ante behaviour in determining future investment decisions post ante experience of fdi decisions with regard to foreign investors satisfaction or dissatisfaction and future profit expectations on recurrent decisions are critical this paper thus attempts to investigate fdi in the context of an emerging market environment with emphasis on how environmental and institutional factors and the micro firm effects of how investors post ante views on profits expectations and investment experience would affect mncs decisions on recurrent investment and firm relocation empirical results show that decisions in the short and long run were affected differently by the factors under study specifically the short run decisions were more affected by profit expectations while the long run by post ante experience on investment satisfaction dissatisfaction and environmental and institutional determinants