political instability corruption and policy formation the case of environmental policy abstract this paper develops a theory of environmental policy formation taking into consideration the degree of corruptibility and political turbulence the predictions that emerge are that the interaction between the two variables is important political instability has a negative effect on the stringency of environmental regulations if the level of corruption is low but a positive effect when the degree of corruption is high corruption reduces the stringency of environmental regulations but the effect disappears as political instability increases the empirical findings are fully consistent with the predictions of the model

an institution based view of international business strategy a focus on emerging economies leveraging the recent research interest in emerging economies this perspective paper argues that an institution based view of international business ib strategy has emerged it is positioned as one leg that helps sustain the strategy tripod the other two legs consisting of the industry and resource based views we then review four diverse areas of substantive research 1 antidumping as entry barriers 2 competing in and out of india 3 growing the firm in china and 4 governing the corporation in emerging economies overall we argue that an institution based view of ib strategy in combination with industry and resource based views will not only help sustain a strategy tripod but also shed significant light on the most fundamental questions confronting ib such as what drives firm strategy and performance in ib

an equilibrium model of asset trading with sequential information arrival in an effort to better understand the dynamic market price adjustment process this paper develops a model which describes the impact of new information on a financial market the primary emphasis is on the price change volume relationship in the presence of a margin requirement we find that the margin requirement significantly affects the relation of price change to volume furthermore this relationship is shown to be affected by the number of investors in the market the degree of information dissemination differences in interpretation of information and the implicit cost of the margin requirement

reconciling the advantages and liabilities of foreignness towards an identity based framework this article leverages identity theory to address the question of when and how foreignness acts as an advantage and liability for the mne subsidiary applying an organizational identity lens i delineate how subsidiaries manage their foreignness by accentuating and attenuating internal and external organizational attributes drawing on this conceptualization i theorize how an accentuated foreign identity moderates context specific advantages and liabilities in offering a more nuanced understanding of how subsidiaries actively manage their foreignness and its contextual implications an identity based framework helps to both explain and reconcile the advantages and liabilities of foreignness

hedging the black swan conditional heteroskedasticity and tail dependence in s p500 and vix the recent financial crisis has accentuated the fact that extreme outcomes have been overlooked and not dealt with adequately while extreme value theories have existed for a long time the multivariate variant is difficult to handle in the financial markets due to the prevalent heteroskedasticity embedded in most financial time series and the complex extremal dependence that cannot be conveniently captured by a single structure moreover most of the existing approaches are based on a limiting argument in which all variables become large at the same rate in this paper we show how the conditional approach of heffernan and tawn 2004 can be implemented to model extremal dependence between financial time series we use a hedging example based on vix futures to demonstrate the flexibility and superiority of the conditional approach against the conventional ols regression approach

futures and actual markets how they are related in order to explore how futures markets affect the market for the commodity or asset underlying the futures contract this study takes as its central theme the analogy between futures and money the relation between monetary and real phenomena is isomorphic to the relation between a futures contract and the underlying asset success in establishing the validity of this isomorphism will have several advantages first it will throw new light on some important aspects of futures trading by pointing out the analogies with the corresponding monetary phenomena which are better understood this enables students of futures to learn from the lessons of the monetary branch of economics second students of money also can learn from that knowledge about futures which has been more thoroughly analyzed than the corresponding monetary phenomena by demonstrating that there is an isomorphism between money and futures these two branches of economics can illuminate each other this ap

overcoming the liability of outsidership for emerging market mnes a capability building perspective this paper develops and discusses a model describing how multinational enterprises from emerging economies emnes overcome the liability of outsidership in their internationalization from a capability building perspective our aim is to celebrate the important intellectual contribution of johanson and vahlne j int bus stud 40 9 1411 1431 2009 who introduced the liability of outsidership concept we first discuss learning from the local environment that can reduce outsidership and then explain how greater absorptive capacity can translate into better performance internationally finally we elaborate on how the institutional environment further conditions the process and the outcomes of learning we conclude with some suggestions for future research from five theoretical perspectives learning social network theory institutional theory resource dependence theory and mne structure and design

learning to carry the cat by the tail firm experience disasters and multinational subsidiary entry and expansion we investigate whether firm experience with discontinuous risks particularly high impact disasters that are episodic and difficult to anticipate moderates the relationship between disasters foreign entry and expansion decisions using a panel data set with 57 500 observations from 106 large european multinational corporations and their subsidiaries operating across 109 countries from 2001 to 2007 we find that although discontinuous risk was negatively related to firm entry and expansion firms that had experience with high impact disasters were more likely to expand in countries experiencing disasters

futures trading market interrelationships and industry structure futures markets arise as a response to economic uncertainty one goal of this paper is to measure how futures trading in existing contracts changes in response to changes in uncertainty caused by inflation a difficult issue that other researchers have addressed is why only a small handful of all markets have successful futures markets see e g telser and higginbotham although we do not provide a complete answer to this question we make progress toward an answer by investigating the covariance structure of various futures prices this allows us to predict which markets are the least needed and to see whether

trading volume maturity and natural gas futures price volatility important characteristics of the natural gas spot and futures markets are discussed the relationship between the variance of price change or volatility of the natural gas futures price and maturity of the futures contract and the volume of trading in the futures contact is also discussed and estimated it is found that the volume of trade rather than maturity explains the variance of the volatility it is also discovered that past levels of volume of trade influence current variability of price volatility but that past variability of price volatility has much less of an influence on current levels of trading

mne strategic intervention in violent conflict variations based on conflict characteristics since the end of the cold war there has been a substantial increase in the number of intrastate conflicts around the world during the last two decades there have been more than 125 violent conflicts resulting in 7 million deaths smith 2003 given the prevalence of these conflicts the inability of some governments to resolve them and the reluctance of multilateral institutions to intervene multinational enterprises mnes engaged in international ventures may find themselves in situations where they must respond to violent conflict to minimize investment risk and to promote stability in countries where they operate research on business response to violent conflict has tended to treat conflict as a homogeneous problem when in fact conflicts vary on several dimensions the purpose of this article is to extend the research with a focus on how the characteristics of the conflict affect mne intervention strategies drawing on insights from the research on conflict resolution and the risk that violent conflict poses to the firm we develop a framework and propositions that provide guidance to mnes confronting violent conflict with respect to existing projects or facilities

escaping the iron cage liabilities of origin and csr reporting of emerging market multinational enterprises this article examines the link between the condition of institutional voids in emerging markets and the use of the practice of corporate social responsibility csr reporting by emerging market multinational enterprises em mnes based on neo institutional theory and in light of the specificity of emerging markets we propose a positive relationship between institutional voids and csr reporting home country institutional voids push companies to internationalize as a way to escape the institutional constraints and inefficiencies in their own markets but at the same time create legitimacy challenges for these companies abroad in particular em mnes from less institutionally developed countries are likely to face liabilities of origin negative perceptions in host countries about these firms willingness and ability to conduct legitimate business csr reporting is an effective strategy to overcome such liabilities and barriers to legitimation as it conveys to host countries and global stakeholders alignment with global meta norms and expectations internationalization listing on developed country stock exchanges and time further magnify em mnes legitimacy challenges and thus the use of csr reporting to mitigate them our hypotheses are supported in a longitudinal study of 157 of the largest em mnes ranked by the united nations conference on trade and development unctad between 2004 and 2011

price volatility trading volume and market depth evidence from futures markets the relations between volume volatility and market depth in eight physical and financial futures markets are examined evidence suggests that linking volatility to total volume does not extract all information when volume is partitioned into expected and unexpected components the paper finds that unexpected volume shocks have a larger effect on volatility further the relation is asymmetric the impact of positive unexpected volume shocks on volatility is larger than the impact of negative shocks finally consistent with theories of market depth the study shows large open interest mitigates volatility

economic determinants of trading volume in futures markets abstract in this paper we test first the hypothesis that the volume of trade in futures markets follows a random walk process next we examine the role of several monthly macroeconomic variables and find that these variables have a statistically significant impact on the trading volume the economic consequences of our findings indicate that futures traders futures exchanges regulatory agencies and others associated with futures markets activities act rationally in watching closely these macroeconomic variables

a framework for integrated risk management in international business treatments of risk in the international management literature largely focus on particular uncertainties to the exclusion of other interrelated uncertainties this paper develops a framework for categorizing the uncertainties faced by firms operating internationally and outlines both financial and strategic corporate risk management responses

optimal innovation of futures contracts this article presents a simple model of the innovation of new futures contracts by transaction volume maximizing futures exchanges in incomplete markets under uncertainty with mean variance preferences and proportional transactions costs we characterize the set of nash equilibria for a number of exchanges simultaneously or sequentially choosing contracts the optimal monopolistic contract design is shown to be pareto optimal an example shows the failure of pareto optimality for aparticularnash equilibrium likewise in a monopolistic multiperiod setting an example shows the failure of pareto optimality given an incentive for the exchange to induce turnover

place space and geographical exposure foreign subsidiary survival in conflict zones this study focuses on the role of geography in foreign subsidiary survival in host countries afflicted by political conflict we argue that survival is a function of exposure to conflicts and depends on the characteristics of place the conflict zone and space geographic concentration and dispersion of other home country firms the roles of place and space are explored using street level analysis of geographic information systems data for 670 japanese multinational enterprises mne subsidiaries in 25 conflict afflicted host countries over 1987 2006 through dynamic modeling of conflict zones as stretchable and shrinkable places relative to subsidiary locations we develop a means of characterizing a foreign subsidiary s exposure to multiple threats in its geographic domain our results show that greater exposure to geographically defined threats in both a static and a dynamic sense reduces the likelihood of mne survival the findings indicate moreover that both concentration and dispersion with other firms affect survival however the effects depend on where the firm is spatially located whether the firm is in a conflict zone and with whom home country peers or sister subsidiaries

foreign actors and intellectual property protection regulations in developing countries international agreements and institutions affect innovation in developing countries we analyze the impact of advanced country multinational enterprises amnes and supranational organizations on the regulatory adoption of global intellectual property protection standards in particular we investigate 60 developing countries that signed the trade relate aspects of intellectual property rights trips agreement of the world trade organization in 1994 our empirical findings show that a greater involvement of amnes in the domestic innovation systems of developing countries results in more stringent trips adoption and convergence to advanced country ip protection standards this relationship is positively moderated by country dependency on supranational organizations such as the international monetary fund this analysis contributes to the literature on institutional change and institutional voids it provides insights into the influence of external actors on the underlying change processes

a multisectoral framework for the analysis of labor mobility and development in ldcs an application to postwar puerto rico the multisectoral framework of this study centers on the notion of dualism of a regional and technological nature 6 sectors are highlighted and disaggregated by location of economic activity and form of organization formal versus informal and rural versus urban the descriptive framework is applied to the special case of puerto rico and its experience with industrial development between 1950 and 1980 section i examines the multisectoral dualistic framework within the context of development theory and as a tool for identifying labor markets and labor mobility in developing countries section ii discusses methodological issues that provide a basis for estimating employment and earnings within a multisectoral framework section iii presents sectoral estimates of employment and earnings in puerto rico between 1950 and 1980 section iv considers possible extensions of the analysis and an assessment of the usefulness of the framework for understanding labor markets in economic development changes in sectoral estimates of employment and earnings in puerto rico between 1950 and 1980 have been dramatic this is consistent with an industrialization 1st development strategy the interdependency between urban formal and informal labor markets may be increasing declines in real urban informal sector earnings in the face of high and stable open unemployment are consistent with the view that informal temporary employment and formal job search are complementary activities the unexpected finding of this study is that the relative size of employment and earnings in the urban informal sector in puerto rico has declined with industrial expansion

price volatility and margin requirements in foreign exchange futures markets abstract recent increased volatility in financial markets has stimulated interest in how minimum margin requirements are determined in financial futures contracts and the effects of changing margins on price volatility this paper examines the major foreign currencies traded on the international monetary mart applying a theoretical basis of margins as security deposits the paper finds that the most important factor for determining the default probability of a contract price volatility is the most important determinant of margins this argues against government replacement of exchanges in the margin setting role in addition no consistent relationship is found between margin changes and price volatility which indicates the inability of the government to alter trading behavior by adjusting margin levels

causality in quantiles and dynamic stock return volume relations abstract this paper investigates the causal relations between stock return and volume based on quantile regressions we first define granger non causality in all quantiles and propose testing non causality by a sup wald test such a test is consistent against any deviation from non causality in distribution as opposed to the existing tests that check only non causality in certain moment this test is readily extended to test non causality in different quantile ranges in the empirical studies of three major stock market indices we find that the causal effects of volume on return are usually heterogeneous across quantiles and those of return on volume are more stable in particular the quantile causal effects of volume on return exhibit a spectrum of symmetric v shape relations so that the dispersion of return distribution increases with lagged volume this is an alternative evidence that volume has a positive effect on return volatility moreover the inclusion of the squares of lagged returns in the model may weaken the quantile causal effects of volume on return but does not affect the causality per se

terrorism and international business a research agenda terrorism threatens international business ib through its direct and indirect effects as governments tighten security at public sites businesses have become more attractive terrorist targets with important implications for the operations and performance of multinational firms while terrorism has been substantially studied in other fields there has been little scholarly research to address terrorism and the distinctive challenges that it poses for ib in this article we conceptualize terrorism in relation to ib we provide background on the dimensions and effects of terrorism and develop a theoretical grounding for terrorism research by drawing on the literature from ib economics political science and other fields after discussing findings from the literature review we offer a comprehensive agenda for future research regarding the relationship between terrorism and ib our agenda emphasizes the effects of terrorism organizational preparedness company strategy and performance global supply chain and distribution channels and human resource issues our review helps establish a baseline for future empirical research consistent with the early stages of research ib scholars are encouraged to offer useful perspectives and effective solutions that shed needed light on terrorism and help reduce its destructive effects for ib and multinational firms

explicating political hazards and safeguards a transaction cost politics approach we apply the logical of comparative institutional analysis to the question of the governance of the relationship between private investors and the government we consider two strategies that investors may follow lobbying for the creation of a specialized political governance structure or the reliance on more general political mechanisms to influence policy in that sector on an ongoing basis we identify political hazards as crucial determinant of the choice of political governance and the transactional attributes that give rise to such hazards finally we highlight shift parameters in a nation s institutional environment that influence the choice between specialized and generalized political governance mechanisms

intradaily price volume adjustments of nyse stocks to unexpected earnings the speed and path of adjustment in stocks to the degree of earnings surprise in their quarterly announcements are studied using price volume transactions data a differential price adjustment process was observed with stocks having large positive earnings surprises experiencing a faster adjustment compared with those stocks with negative earnings surprises volume transaction frequency and size were found to be directly related to the absolute degree of surprise but very favorable earnings surprise stocks experienced initially a large number of smaller trades while stocks with large unfavorable earnings surprises had relatively fewer transactions but higher volume per trade the stock market s microstructure has received increasing attention from researchers especially from an empirical perspective as transaction data on prices and volume have become more readily available 1 an important subset of this research has been the study of stock price adjustments to significant news events specifically publicly announced information with economic content should be quickly reflected in prices in an unbiased manner this paper contains a study of the intradaily adjustment in stocks to the informational content of earnings reports using price changes trading volume and transaction frequency and size we examine the transaction to transaction and time series stock behavior associated with different degrees of earnings surprise embedded in earnings announcements the degree of surprise is measured by a comparison of actual with forecasted earnings for 325 new york stock exchange nyse firms these firms are subdivided into five earnings surprise categories in order to determine whether the speed and path of their price volume adjustment processes are different one question of interest is whether the adjustment process for favorable versus unfavorable earnings surprises is similar or different another is whether any adjustment is distinguished by a few large trades or a large number of smaller

the structure of income inequality in puerto rico abstract the kuznets hypothesis predicts that the level of income inequality will rise then fall during the course of economic development however empirical studies have found that for many countries inequality levels off after a certain stage of development and remains at this level for a long period of time in this paper one possible reason for the formation of such an inequality plateau is suggested puerto rico is used for our case study employing an augmented input output model we find that the 1963 puerto rican economy had reached such an inequality plateau with a very narrow range of inequality levels permitted by its economic structure we then investigate the relation between the inequality band and the degree of sectoral interdependence we find that under certain assumptions one can show a direct correspondence between the two with the equality range narrowing as the linkages increase once an economic system has reached a certain degree of sophistication in its linkage structure its inequality level may become immobile the implication of this is that after a point the natural course of development will not result in further reduction in inequality at this stage the government might have to intervene directly in income determination to reduce inequality

oil and stock market volatility a multivariate stochastic volatility perspective abstract this paper models the volatility of stock and oil futures markets using the multivariate stochastic volatility structure in an attempt to extract information intertwined in both markets for risk prediction it offers four major findings first the stock and oil futures prices are inter related their correlation follows a time varying dynamic process and tends to increase when the markets are more volatile second conditioned on the past information the volatility in each market is very persistent i e it varies in a predictable manner third there is inter market dependence in volatility innovations that hit either market can affect the volatility in the other market in other words conditioned on the persistence and the past volatility in their respective markets the past volatility of the stock oil futures market also has predictive power over the future volatility of the oil futures stock market finally the model produces more accurate value at risk estimates than other benchmarks commonly used in the financial industry

measuring and testing the long term impact of terrorist attacks on the us futures market this article investigates the long term impact of the 11 september 2001 terrorist attacks on the maturity volume and open interest effects for the s p 500 index futures contracts adopting chou 2005a b s range based volatility models this article provides a number of interesting results for the maturity effect we find evidence for a very weak presence in the pre 9 11 period and no presence in the post 9 11 period indicating that the maturity effect vanishes completely following the event of 9 11 despite a strong presence of the volume effect in both periods we detect a relative decrease in the presence during the post 9 11 period the open interest effect shows a very weak presence during the pre 9 11 period and a strong presence during the post 9 11 period indicating a stronger open interest effect following the event of 9 11 furthermore we show that there is a bi directional causality relationship between futures volatility and trading volume during the pre 9 11 period and that the causali

extending the bargaining power model explaining bargaining outcomes among nations mnes and ngos participants in international bargaining include different types nation states mnes ngos and multilateral organizations and different numbers of these actors our theoretical contribution is to extend the bargaining power paradigm with a framework that models bargaining in this complex environment as a network the configuration of supports and constraints among all participating actors in the bargaining environment is captured in the structure of the network antecedents of an actor s bargaining influence in the network include the actor s basis of power network position bargaining outcome preferences and motivation to influence bargaining the network bargaining power nbp model uses network theory to build upon and integrate insights from previous literature in a way that allows us to simultaneously apply these different insights to explain bargaining outcomes these insights include effects of coalitions strategies of less powerful actors leveraging more powerful allies integration of international and domestic politics and applicability to mne related issues beyond fdi finally we illustrate nbp in a scenario of privatized utilities in the dominican republic in which the bargaining power outcome predicted by nbp differs from that of the canonical bargaining power perspective

liquidity credit quality and the relation between volatility and trading activity evidence from the corporate bond market this paper investigates the roles of illiquidity and credit risk in determining the relations between price volatility of a bond and its trading frequency and trade size based on a large transaction dataset from october 2004 to june 2012 we find a positive relation between volatility and trading frequency and a negative relation between volatility and trade size consistent with the prediction of the search based theory the relations are much stronger for illiquid and risky bonds furthermore both liquidity and credit risk become more important in times of stress and their effects are reinforcing results strongly suggest that search frictions and credit risk are important factors driving the relation between volatility and trading activity in the corporate bond market

uncovering the complex relationships between political risk and mne firm legitimacy insights from libya using the before after natural experiment occasioned by the arab spring in libya we explore how market and non market activity affect foreign firm legitimacy in times of political turmoil although all mnes in libya had to cultivate strong ties to qadhafi to succeed during his 40 years of rule we found that those that also invested in social benefit projects and in social ties with families with few ties to the qadhafi family earned a broad based legitimacy that helped them survive qadhafi s overthrow our findings contribute to the political risk and political behavior literature the notion that the pursuit of firm legitimacy in general and especially in the eyes of social sector actors is an effective hedge against political risk more theoretically our findings support the addition of a social sector based path to firm legitimacy in the host country that complements and may at times substitute for the government based path to foreign firm legitimacy practically our findings suggest that mnes facing severe political risk can improve their prospects for survival by investing in relationships with influential social groups and by offering goods or services that are perceived as socially valuable

estimating the effects of information surprises and trading on stock returns using a mixed jump diffusion model i present a methodology that uses the mixed jump diffusion model for stock returns to estimate the separate effects of information surprises and strategic trading around corporate events using simulation techniques i show that for events with multiple announcements spread over a long time the estimators derived from the mixed jump diffusion model are more powerful compared to the traditional cumulative abnormal return estimators the new methodology is used to study the separate effects of information surprises and strategic trading associated with blockholdings and subsequent targeted repurchases i find that for more than 93 percent of the firms in our sample the mixed jump diffusion model is statistically superior to the pure diffusion model in describing stock returns more important i find a statistically significant negative effect due to trading while the average effect around announcements is statistically insignificant in contrast the standard cumulative abnormal return is not statistically different from zero article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

volatility and trading activity in short sterling futures the objective of the present study is to examine the interplay between information trading volume and volatility in short sterling futures more specifically the paper concentrates on the role of liquidity variables as conduits of information arrival and whether such variables could be an exclusive platform of the market s information set the analytical framework employed to examine the interaction among those factors is based on the conditional volatility family of techniques the approach is well suited as it naturally leads to examine the interaction among volatility and sources of information in an attempt to identify proxies of information and their role in determining volatility four main conclusions have emerged first the empirical findings suggest that both volume and open interest exhibit a positive correlation with volatility second based on the current methodology one can observe the persistence and importance of garch effects after accounting for liquidity third the liquidity varia

the uppsala internationalization process model revisited from liability of foreignness to liability of outsidership the uppsala internationalization process model is revisited in the light of changes in business practices and theoretical advances that have been made since 1977 now the business environment is viewed as a web of relationships a network rather than as a neoclassical market with many independent suppliers and customers outsidership in relation to the relevant network more than psychic distance is the root of uncertainty the change mechanisms in the revised model are essentially the same as those in the original version although we add trust building and knowledge creation the latter to recognize the fact that new knowledge is developed in relationships

the importance of nongovernmental organizations ngos in global governance and value creation an international business research agenda the emergence of organized civil society and of nongovernmental organizations ngos as organizational manifestations of broader social movements has dramatically altered the global political economic landscape the increasing global reach of ngos challenges established international business ib research and highlights opportunities for broadening and adapting extant paradigms in the field in this article we introduce the concept of ngos and contrast them with their private sector firm and public sector government counterparts within the context of ib we discuss factors giving rise to ngos as important organizational entities that participate in global value creation and governance and identify limits to their efficacy and viability we identify important questions raised by incorporating ngos into our conceptualization of global context and we challenge three basic tenets of ib theory the definition and dynamics of an institutional field the relevance centrality of a firm government i e two sector bargaining model and the pre eminence of the firm as the global organization of interest within the field we conclude by offering suggested research directions that should serve as catalysts for this new and potentially rich area of future ib research

theorising from case studies towards a pluralist future for international business research the literature on case studies both in the field of international business ib and in the social sciences more generally has tended to focus on the methods of data production and analysis suited to this research strategy in contrast in this paper we investigate methods of theorising from case studies we seek to understand how case researchers theorise and how future ib research might utilise case studies for theorising by means of a qualitative content analysis of case studies published in journal of international business studies academy of management journal and journal of management studies we construct a typology of theorising from case studies two dimensions of the case study namely causal explanation and contextualisation form the basis for our typology we distinguish four methods of theorising inductive theory building interpretive sensemaking natural experiment and contextualised explanation only the first of which has been widely used in jibs in the period that we investigate on the basis of our own qualitative analysis we show the limitations of inductive theory building and argue that greater utilisation of the other methods of theorising would enhance the case study s explanatory power and potential for contextualisation we argue for a more pluralist future for ib research

information aggregation in a noisy rational expectations economy abstract this paper analyzes a general equilibrium model of a competitive security market in which traders possess independent pieces of information about the return of a risky asset each trader conditions his estimate of the return both on his own private source of information and price which in equilibrium serves as a noisy aggregator of the total information observed by all traders a closed form characterization of the rational expectations equilibrium is presented a counter example to the existence of fully revealing equilibrium is developed

development and income distribution the case of puerto rico abstract using data spanning half a century the study addresses the trends and factors behind changes in income distribution in one of the earliest examples of development through integration to the world economy results show remarkable income growth that generated an ambiguous long term change in inequality but a drastic reduction in poverty public transfers played a decisive role in restraining growth in inequality and in reducing poverty levels that were also affected favorably by changes in the distribution of female earned income finally although rising schooling levels and their absolute returns increased households income generating capacities the realization of the potential was hindered by increasing levels of unemployment and economic inactivity

policy uncertainty and the sequence of entry by japanese firms 1980 1998 we extend the stages model of internationalization to incorporate a sophisticated consideration of temporal and cross national variation in the uncertainty of the policy environment using a sample of 6465 international expansions of 665 japanese manufacturing firms in 49 countries we develop arguments from internationalization and bargaining power perspectives to show how japanese firms manage policy uncertainty in host country environments through the within country sequencing of investments although a distribution to manufacturing entry sequence tends to prevail in countries with low levels of policy uncertainty as uncertainty in the policy environment increases initial entry by distribution is increasingly likely to be eschewed in favor of an initial entry by a joint venture manufacturing plant we suggest that this change in investment sequence occurs as firms shift from an emphasis on developing knowledge about local markets and consumers in low hazards markets to an international expansion strategy in uncertain policy environments that places knowledge development of the policy environment at the forefront of a firm s strategy

high level politically connected firms corruption and analyst forecast accuracy around the world the international business ib literature has widely recognized political forces as major factors that complicate the strategic decisions of multinational enterprises mnes analyses by financial intermediaries can help to reduce the risk of information asymmetry caused by such factors using firm level data from 17 jurisdictions between 1997 and 2001 this study investigates the association between a firm s high level political connections and earnings forecasts made by financial analysts an important group of financial intermediaries we find that after controlling for other determinants of forecast accuracy analysts experience greater difficulty in predicting the earnings of firms with political connections than those of firms with no such connections however in jurisdictions in which corruption level is relatively high earnings forecast accuracy is influenced more by a firm s political connections our findings contribute to the ib literature by demonstrating that political connections exacerbate the information asymmetry between investors and managers and also that anti corruption measures can curb the adverse effect of political connections on the corporate information environment these findings bear the practical implication that mnes must consider political issues when making resource allocation decisions

can speculative trading explain the volume volatility relation we derive a speculative trading model with endogenous informed trading that yields a conditionally heteroscedastic time series for trading volume and the squared price changes we use half hourly price change and volume data for ibm during 1988 to test the model and estimate the structural parameters using the simulated method of moments estimation procedure although the model seems to do a reasonable job fitting the unconditional moments of the volume and the squared price change processes it fares less well in fitting the relation between current trading volume and lags of trading volume and squared volume s and its lag s relation to squared price changes

the dynamic value of mne political embeddedness the case of the chinese automobile industry this paper examines the complex relationship between the embeddedness of multinational enterprises mnes in host country political networks and their long run competitive positions in host emerging markets we report the findings of a longitudinal study of the chinese automobile sector from the early 1980s to the mid 2000s using data from 142 interviews over 11 years and a wide range of secondary sources we explore the process through which the value of political embeddedness changed over time in the face of profound and rapid changes in host country business environments on the basis of this longitudinal study the paper unravels the underlying mechanisms that lead to the declining and even negative value of deep political embeddedness by mnes in a politically stable emerging economy

maturity effects in energy futures abstract this paper examines the effects of maturity on future price volatility and trading volume for 129 energy futures contracts recently traded in the nymex the results provide support for the maturity effect hypothesis that is energy futures prices do become more volatile and trading volume increases as futures contracts approach maturity

the effect of national context on perceptions of risk a comparison of planned versus free market managers a model is developed to explain the effect of national context on risk related decisions an essential feature of risk related decisions is substantial uncertainty or inadequate information as well as significant consequences regarding future outcomes we argue that differences in information flows and consequences across national institutional environments affect the perceived uncertainty of decision situations for this reason the institutional environment in which managers reside should play a fundamental and systematic role in influencing their perceptions of risk we test our model on managers from two environments that contrast in terms of information and consequences related to risk a free market economy the u s and a centrally planned economy the czech republic in 1992 our results indicate that the institutional environment does indeed play a strong and systematic role in explaining managers risk related decisions thus national environment appears to be an important contextual condition to which the propensity to take risks is sensitive

the samuelson hypothesis in futures markets an analysis using intraday data this paper considers the samuelson hypothesis which argues that the futures price volatility increases as the futures contract approaches its expiration utilizing intraday data from 20 futures markets in six futures exchanges we find strong support for the samuelson hypothesis in agricultural futures however the samuelson hypothesis does not hold for other futures contracts we also provide supporting evidence that the negative covariance hypothesis is the key factor for the empirical support of the samuelson hypothesis in addition our findings remain largely unaltered even after we control for seasonality and liquidity effects

transforming disadvantages into advantages developing country mnes in the least developed countries we analyze the advantages and disadvantages of developing country multinational enterprises mnes in comparison with developed country mnes developing country mnes tend to be less competitive than their developed country counterparts partly because they suffer the disadvantage of operating in home countries with underdeveloped institutions we argue that this disadvantage can become an advantage when both types of mne operate in countries with difficult governance conditions because developing country mnes are used to operating in such conditions the empirical analysis shows that although developing country mnes rarely appear among the largest mnes in the world they are more prevalent among the largest foreign firms in the least developed countries ldcs especially in ldcs with poorer regulatory quality and lower control of corruption

arch models properties estimation and testing abstract the aim of this survey paper is to provide an account of some of the important developments in the autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity arch model since its inception in a seminal paper by engle 1982 this model takes account of many observed properties of asset prices and therefore various interpretations can be attributed to it we start with the basic arch models and discuss their different interpretations arch models have been generalized in different directions to accommodate more and more features of the real world we provide a comprehensive treatment of many of the extensions of the original arch model next we discuss estimation and testing for arch models and note that these models lead to some interesting and unique problems there have been numerous applications and we mention some of these as we present different models the paper includes a glossary of the acronyms for the models we describe

government intervention in the venezuelan petroleum industry an empirical investigation of political risk two important aspects of political risk analysis that have not received much attention in the literature are a the reasons why multinational firms experience different types of intervention and b the timing of intervention in order to address these issues this research develops a conceptual model of political risk based on the premise that host government intervention is related to specific objectives of the government vis a vis multinational firms information reflecting the attainment of objectives motivates the government to intervene in a given manner the application of this model to the case of the venezuelan petroleum industry from years 1947 to 1976 provides some support for this model and gives insight into the timing of specific types of intervention

market conditions trader types and price volume relation in energy futures markets we investigate the asymmetric relations between trading volume and price changes and trading volume and price volatility of energy futures contracts across maturities and under different market conditions using a relatively long sample of daily observations we examine whether the impact of trading volume on returns and volatility of futures contracts can be time varying and dependent on the market condition we differentiate the market condition based on the slope of the forward curve into backwardation and contango the results indicate that trading volume and returns are positively related when the market is in backwardation and negatively related when the market is in contango in addition the positive relation between changes in trading volume and volatility of futures contracts seem to be stronger when the market is in backwardation than when it is in contango finally the results indicate that to a certain extent trade participation and trading activities of agents in energy futures markets can be explained by the slope of the forward curve which reflects the market condition and sentiment

the dependence between hourly prices and trading volume this study provides evidence on joint characteristics of hourly common stock trading vol ume and returns on the new york stock exchange average volume traded shows signifi cant differences across trading hours of the day and across days of the week average returns differ across hours ofthe day and to some extent across days ofthe week there is a strong contemporaneous relation between trading volume and returns and also a rela tion between trading volume and returns lagged up to four hours furthermore the trading volume returns relation is steeper for positive returns than for nonpositive returns

public transfers family socioeconomic traits and the job search behavior of the unemployed evidence from puerto rico abstract this paper explores the theoretical and empirical associations between the job search efforts of the unemployed and the socioeconomic characteristics of the family it takes as a point of reference that certain supply side phenomena may contribute to puerto rico s high open unemployment rate the statistical analyses carried out indicate that there does exist what can be labeled luxury unemployment in other words government provided transfer payments generate disincentive effects with respect to the job market behavior of the unemployed moreover the dependency status of the individual within the family group also leads to lower job search effort

time varying international stock market interaction and the identification of volatility signals abstract this paper investigates the dependency of international stock market interaction on financial volatility we show in a stylized economic model that volatility dependent cross market spillovers can be interpreted in two different ways as indicating information flow or uncertainty if higher volatility in one market leads to higher lower reactions in another market volatility reflects information uncertainty we apply a simultaneous time varying coefficient model where structural arch type variances serve two purposes governing the time variation of spillovers and ensuring statistical identification we analyze data of us and further stock markets indeed we find strong nonlinear volatility dependent spillovers

on the extent of the market wholesale gasoline in the northeastern united states this paper develops the classical view of the extent of markets by introducing explicitly in the analysis the concept of arbitrage costs arbitrage or transaction costs imply that market boundaries are essentially stochastic while a set of products or regions may have binding arbitrage conditions i e may be in the same market at a given point in time they may not at another thus in defining a market the probability that a set of agents or regions would h3ve binding arbitrage conditions has to be assessed this paper develops an econometric methodology to estimate the transaction costs required to arbitrage among a given set of products as well as the probability that that set of products would be bound by binding arbitrage condi tions finally the methodology is applied to wholesale gasoline in the northeastern part of the united states address for communications pablo t spiller herbert hoover memorl l bldg 9348 stanford ca 94305

expropriation risk and technology abstract this paper develops a unified framework to analyze the dynamics of firm investment in countries with poor legal enforcement the firm s technology edge over the government generates endogenous property rights industry variation in the technology gap predicts a sectoral pecking order of expropriations long run investment distortions may be pareto superior relative to persistent investment at the static optimum the dynamics of investment and transfers depend on whether incentives backloading or efficiency frontloading concerns dominate at the initial division of surplus an increase in government efficiency may reduce its welfare the model provides a technology driven rationale for the widespread use of conglomerate structures in emerging market countries

the relation between price changes and trading volume a survey this paper reviews previous and current research on the relation between price changes and trading volume in financial markets and makes four contributions first two empiri cal relations are established volume is positively related to the magnitude of the price change and in equity markets to the price change per se second previous theoretical research on the price volume relation is summarized and critiqued and major insights are emphasized third a simple model ofthe price volume relation is proposed that is consis tent with several seemingly unrelated or contradictory observations and fourth several directions for future research are identified

the institutional environment for infrastructure investment the empirical evidence that links political institutions to economic outcomes has grown dramatically in recent years however virtually all of this analysis is undertaken using data from the past three decades this paper extends this empirical framework by performing a two century long historical analysis of the determinants of infrastructure investment in a panel of over 100 countries the results demonstrate that political environments that limit the feasibility of policy change are an important determinant of investment in infrastructure copyright 2002 oxford university press

the management of political risk we explore a long standing prediction in the international business literature that managers subjective perceptions of political risk not just the level of risk are important for how firms manage political risk the importance attributed to political risk by corporate executives has increased over the last 15 years and our results show that political risk is now considered more important than commodity input risk our analysis suggests that nearly 50 of firms avoid not simply reduce foreign direct investment because of political risk using a unique survey based psychometric evaluation of manager risk aversion we show that firms with risk averse executives are more likely to avoid investment in politically risky countries a key implication of behavioral models this relation is economically stronger when agency problems are more likely to be severe for example when executives are less aligned with shareholder value maximization and when executives are younger and therefore might put their personal career concerns in front of shareholders interests while numerous studies have shown that political risk affects foreign direct investment using objective measures of such risk electoral uncertainty conflicts etc our study documents that executives subjective perceptions of political risk are also important for political risk management

towards a renaissance in international business research big questions grand challenges and the future of ib scholarship in this article we review critiques of international business ib research with a focus on whether ib scholarship tackles big questions we identify three major areas where ib scholars have addressed important global phenomena but find that they have had little influence outside of ib and only limited effects on business or government policy we propose a redirection of ib research towards grand challenges in global business and the use of interdisciplinary research methods multilevel approaches and phenomena driven perspectives to address those questions we argue that ib can play a more constructive and vital role by tackling expansive topics at the business societal interface

enhancing the obsolescing bargain theory a longitudinal study of foreign ownership of u s and european multinationals this research attempts to enhance the obsolescing bargain theory for manufacturing companies by statistically testing the effects of nine explanatory variables on the static and dynamic manifestations of bargaining success with longitudinal firm level data in order to highlight those effects it develops a conceptual framework that provides a broader context in which the primary variables operate it demonstrates that the obsolescing bargain took effect in india over a fifteen year period following restrictive legislation unlike previous research this study measures the effect of benefits received by multinationals from the host government in exchange for equity dilution american companies are found to retain a smaller share of their foreign ownership over time than british and other european multinationals some explanatory variables that have previously been found to influence level of foreign ownership static bargaining success are found to be less important or have a different effect in explaining proportion of foreign ownership retained dynamic bargaining success

the impact of energy derivatives on the crude oil market we examine the effects of energy derivatives trading on the crude oil market there is a common public and regulatory perception that derivative securities increase volatility and can have a destabilizing effect on the underlying market consistent with this view we find an abnormal increase in volatility for three consecutive weeks following the introduction of nymex crude oil futures while there is also evidence of a longer term volatility increase this is likely due to exogenous factors such as the continuing deregulation of the energy markets subsequent introductions of crude oil options and derivatives on other energy commodities have no effect on crude oil volatility we also examine the effects of derivatives trading on the depth and liquidity of the crude oil market this analysis reveals a strong inverse relation between the open interest in crude oil futures and spot market volatility specifically when open interest is greater the volatility shock associated with a given unexpected increase in volume is much smaller

bridging history and reductionism a key role for longitudinal qualitative research longitudinal qualitative research combining grounded theorizing and insights from modern historical methods can generate novel conceptual frameworks that establish theoretical bridges between historical narratives and reductionist quantitative models to capitalize fully on this potential theory bridging role qualitative scholars should seek to study social systems characterized by complexity and nonlinear causation effectively serving this theory bridging role provides a basis for securing a distinctive place for qualitative research in the social sciences in general and for international business research in particular

dodging bullets the heterogeneous effect of political violence on greenfield fdi the relationship between political violence and greenfield foreign direct investment is contingent on the type of violence characteristics of the investment receiving sector and extent to which the investing firm is geographically diversified this paper presents an analysis with a dynamic fixed effects model for a panel of 90 developing countries from 2003 to 2012 the analysis shows that nationwide political conflict is negatively associated with total and non resource related greenfield foreign direct investment but not with resource related greenfield foreign direct investment the insensitivity to political conflict of multinational firms in the resource sector is associated with the high profitability of natural resource extraction and the companies geographic constraints on location choice during the period of estimation in the non resource sector the less geographically diversified firms are most sensitive to the risk of conflict

the determinants of mne subsidiaries political strategies evidence of institutional duality in this study we develop and test a model of the determinants of political strategies used by foreign subsidiaries of multinational enterprises mnes using recent theoretical advances in institutional theory that recognize that mne subsidiaries are confronted with pressures for isomorphism within the corporation internal legitimacy and within the host country external legitimacy we integrate international business and political strategy literatures to create a multilevel model of subsidiary host country and parent determinants of political strategy our hypotheses are tested using survey and archival data from western european subsidiaries of us mnes

from a distance and generalizable to up close and grounded reclaiming a place for qualitative methods in international business research journal of international business studies 2011 42 573 581 doi 10 1057 jibs 2011 19 it is exhilarating to write the introduction to this special issue as it presents an important opportunity for qualitative research to reclaim its position as an integral part of international business ib research the field of ib was founded on a rich qualitative research legacy e g bartlett 1979 crozier 1965 fayerweather 1969 johanson vahlne 1977 kindleberger 1956 prahalad 1975 wilkins 1970 1974 over time however such methods have been progressively marginalized in our field as quantitative methods have become the norm this shift in emphasis has mirrored the broader trend toward more positivistic empirical methods in the social sciences the field of ib is multidisciplinary in scope and interdisciplinary in content and methodology statement of jibs editorial policy however as our respective home disciplines came under growing pressure to solidify their legitimacy as scientific endeavors that merit scholarly attention it is not surprising that we began to take on the norms propagated within our own academic communities that typically equated quantitative data with hard science while there are clear merits associated with quantitative methods the multi cultural multi dimensional and dynamic nature of the field of ib lends itself to a broad range of research methodologies qualitative methods being one of them in order to understand the complexities of emergent and evolving phenomena scattered over distance and the differentiated contexts typical to many topics under investigation in ib it is often inappropriate to engage in large scale cross sectional studies or reductionist methods in the absence of well developed theory rather thick description exploratory research and comparative case analysis that focus on inductive theory building and hypotheses generation may be more suitable

institutional cultural and transaction cost influences on entry mode choice and performance in this study we examine foreign market entry mode choice and firm performance for a sample of european union firms examining both financial and non financial performance measures we attempt to determine if firms that select their entry mode based on transaction cost institutional context and cultural context variables perform better than firms that make other mode choices we found that mode choice did matter firms whose mode choice could be predicted by the extended transaction cost model performed significantly better on both financial and non financial measures than did firms whose mode choice could not be predicted by the extended transaction cost model implications for future research are discussed

futures price variability a test of maturity and volume effects a number of previous studies have examined the contemporaneous relation between asset price variability and volume traded for example clark 1973 cornell 1981 and tauchen and pitts 1983 have investigated this relation for futures markets and epps and epps 1976 harris 1984a 1984b and smirlock and starks 1984 for the stock market underlying this empirical research is a theoretical framework that suggests that price variability or the absolute change in prices and volume traded should be positively correlated according to this theoretical framework the so called mixture of distributions hypothesis mdh 1 the correlation between price variability and volume should be positive because of joint dependence on a common directing variable or event this study uses contract disaggregated data on futures prices to obtain evidence on the relation between price variability and volume of trading strong positive contemporaneous correlations between trading volume and price volatility are documented consistent with the mixture of distributions hypothesis it is concluded that maturity is not a suitable surrogate for the common directing variable specifically while maturity has a strong effect on volume no such relation is found for price variability finally while in the majority of cases price variability and trading volume are contemporaneously correlated there are a significant number of cases in which a sequential relation appears to be present an earlier version of this paper was presented at the 1984 meeting of the european finance association in manchester england and at southern methodist university the university of wisconsin madison duke university mcgill university and the university of toronto we wish to thank the seminar participants and an anonymous referee from this journal for constructive comments and criticism all remaining errors are of course our responsibility we would also like to thank the columbia center for the study of futures markets and the interactive data corp for providing some of the data used in the study 1 see clark 1973 and harris 1984a 1984b

the price variability volume relationship on speculative markets this paper concerns the relationship between the variability of the daily price change and the daily volume of trading on the speculative markets our work extends the theory of speculative markets in two ways first we derive from economic theory the joint probability distribution of the price change and the trading volume over any interval of time within the trading day and second we determine how this joint distribution changes as more traders enter or exit from the market the model s parameters are estimated by fiml using daily data from the 90 day t bills futures market the results of the estimation can reconcile a conflict between the price variability volume relationship for this market and the relationship obtained by previous investigators for other speculative markets this paper concerns the relationship between the variability of the daily price change and the volume of trading on speculative markets previous empirical studies 2 3 6 12 14 16 of both futures and equity markets always find a positive association between price variability as measured by the squared price change ap2 and the trading volume 2 there are two explanations for the relationship clark s 2 explanation which is secondary to his effort to explain why the probability distribution of the daily price change is leptokurtic emphasizes randomness in the number of within day transactions in clark s model the daily price change is the sum of a random number of within day price changes the variance of the daily price change is thus a random variable with a mean proportional to the mean number of daily transactions clark argues that the trading volume is related positively to the number of within day transactions and so the trading volume is related positively to the variability of the price change the second explanation is due to epps and epps 6 their model examines the mechanics of within day trading the change in the market price on each within day transaction or market clearing is the average of the changes in all of the traders reservation prices epps and epps assume there is a positive relationship between the extent to which traders disagree when they revise their reservation prices and the absolute value of the change in the market price that is an increase in the extent to which traders disagree is associated with a larger absolute price change the price variability volume relationship arises then because the volume of trading is positively related to the extent to which traders disagree when they revise their reservation prices

who is afraid of political risk multinational firms and their choice of capital structure this paper investigates how multinational firms choose the capital structure of their foreign affiliates in response to political risk we focus on two choice variables the leverage and the ownership structure of the foreign affiliate and we distinguish different types of political risk such as expropriation unreliable intellectual property rights and confiscatory taxation in our theoretical analysis we find that as political risk increases the ownership share tends to decrease whereas leverage can both increase or decrease depending on the type of political risk using the microdatabase direct investment of the deutsche bundesbank we find supportive evidence for these different effects

a bayesian approach to modeling stock return volatility for option valuation new measures of stock return volatility are developed to increase the precision of stock option price estimates with bayesian statistical methods volatility estimates for a given stock are developed using prior information on the cross sectional patterns in return volatil ities for groups of stocks sorted on size financial leverage and trading volume call option values computed with the bayesian procedure generally improve prediction accuracy for market prices of call options relative to those computed using implied volatility standard historical volatility or even the actual ex post volatility that occurred during each option s life although the bayesian methods produce biased call price estimators they do reduce the systematic tendency of standard pricing approaches to overprice underprice options on high low volatility stocks little bias improvement is observed with respect to the time to maturity and moneyness of the call options

bridging the gap between the distribution of realized ecu volatility and arch modelling of the euro the garch nig model summary this paper bridges the gap between traditional arch modelling and recent advances on realized volatilities based on a ten year sample of five minute returns for the ecu basket currencies versus the us dollar we find that the realized volatilities constructed from the summation of the high frequency intraday squared returns conditional on the lagged squared daily returns are approximately inverse gaussian ig distributed while the distribution of the daily returns standardized by their realized volatilities is approximately normal moreover the implied daily garch model with normal inverse gaussian nig errors estimated for the ecu returns results in very accurate out of sample predictions for the three years of actual daily euro us dollar exchange rates copyright 2002 john wiley sons ltd

financial and political risks in us direct foreign investment this paper examines the risk of us direct foreign investments over the period 1982 98 in 59 host countries the first part of the analysis builds an empirical model to explain the time series and cross country patterns of return on capital the estimation then uses the return on assets roa as a measure of the return on capital and investigates its determinants there are four main findings first the roa in a majority of countries does not simply track the worldwide roa second some cross country differences are explained by financial risks third unexplained country risk is qualitatively and quantitatively related to unobserved political risk fourth unexplained country risk is also compensated with a higher roa enhancing its credibility as a measure of political risk the unexplained country risk is thus used to calculate a new index of political risk ratings for 56 host countries that may be useful to managers investors policymakers and academics

political behavior social responsibility and perceived corruption a structuration perspective this study unites the three lenses political behavior corporate social responsibility and corruption and evaluates the way in which multinational enterprises mnes manage political and social forces in a foreign emerging market using the theory of structuration as the conceptual foundation we propose that an mne s propensity to cooperate with the host government is positively related to its philanthropic contribution and resource accommodation whereas its propensity to be assertive with the host government is positively associated with its emphasis on ethics and organizational credibility we argue that when perceived corruption in the business segment increases an mne s propensity to cooperate and be assertive with the government decreases its focus on ethics heightens and its philanthropic contribution diminishes as to the three way interactions when perceived corruption in the business segment increases mnes that focus more on ethics have a greater propensity to use arm s length bargaining to deal with the government whereas those focusing less on ethics have a greater propensity to use social connections to deal with the government our analysis of sample mnes in china generally supports these propositions