consumption betas and backwardation in commodity markets this paper examines the relationship between commodity consumption betas and realized commodity futures contract risk premiums a linear relationship between risk premiums and consumption betas is developed based on a consumption oriented capm the parameters of this linear model are estimated using fourteen commodities

competition cooperation and innovation organizational arrangements for regimes of rapid technological progress abstract discussions of the link between firm size and innovation are outmoded because the boundaries of the firm have become fuzzy in recent decades strategic alliances constellations of bilateral agreements among firms are increasingly necessary to support innovative activities such alliances can facilitate complex coordination beyond what the price system can accomplish while avoiding the dysfunctional properties sometimes associated with hierarchy antitrust law and competition policy need to recognize that these new organizational forms are often the functional antithesis of cartels though they may have certain structural similarities a more complete understanding of bilateral contracts and agreements ought to reveal when and how cooperation can support rather than impede innovation and competition

non linear hybrid exchange rate modeling and trading profitability in the foreign exchange market abstract a neuro fuzzy decision making technology is designed and implemented to obtain the optimal daily currency trading rule it is found that a non linear artificial neural network exchange rate microstructure hybrid model combined with a fuzzy logic controller generates a set of trading strategies that earn a higher rate of return compared to the simple buy and hold strategy after accounting for realistic transaction costs the gains from utilizing a dynamic neuro fuzzy model are still present

a variance ratio test of random walks in foreign exchange rates the separate variance ratio tests under homoscedasticity and heteroscedasticity both provide evidence rejecting the random walk hypothesis using five pairs of weekly nominal exchange rate series over the period from august 7 1974 to march 29 1989 the rejections cast doubt on the random walk hypothesis in exchange rates which has received support in the existing literature furthermore since the rejections are robust to heteroscedasticity they suggest autocorelations of weekly increments in the nominal exchange rate series which may be consistent with the exchange rate overshooting or undershooting phenomenon in the past decade there has been a consensus that nominal exchange rates follow a random walk process since a unit root and uncorrelated increments are both required for a random walk process the random walk is usually supported in the existing literature either because a unit root component is detected in the exchange rate series or because the increment in the exchange rate is found to be serially uncorrelated for example meese and singleton 1982 and baillie and bollerslev 1989 both find a unit root component in the exchange rate series and the evidence provided in giddy and dufey 1975 cornell and dietrich 1978 logue sweeney and willett 1978 and hsieh 1988 all suggest that the exchange rate series contains uncorrelated increments in this paper the random walk hypothesis for the nominal exchange rate series is reexamined by applying a variance ratio test developed in lo and mackinlay 1988 to five pairs of weekly nominal exchange rate series over the period from august 7 1974 to march 29 1989 while there are two implications of the random walk unit root and uncorrelated increments this paper focuses on the uncorrelated increments aspect this is not only because there are some important departures from the random walk that unit root test cannot detect but also because the autocorrelation aspect may yield

an equilibrium analysis of hedging with liquidity constraints speculation and government price subsidy in a commodity market we develop a simple commodity model to analyze i the effects of hedgying with liquidity constraints due to producers inability to bear unlimited trading losses ii the role of speculation in the process of risk allocation between consumers and producers and iii the equilibrium implications of government price subsidies to the producers we find that 1 liquidity constraints can cause futures prices to exhibit mean reversion which then makes speculation profitable 2 speculation tends to make futures price volatility an increasing function of futures price and 3 government price subsidy if actively hedged by the producers serves to lower the futures risk premium and reduce futures volatility commodity spot and futures prices are determined by the following types of market participants producers consumers speculators and governments producers have generally taken short futures positions in order to hedge against price declines consumers have generally taken long futures positions in order to hedge against price increases speculators who neither produce nor intend to consume the commodity are present in the spot and futures markets for the purpose of making a profit governments play significant roles in the markets by providing producers with various support programs and in some cases by directly intervening in the markets to affect commodity prices or adjust inventory levels the traditional approach to commodity futures pricing has been based on the theory of storage 1 as fama and french 1987 1988 show this approach to commodity pricing is particularly useful for explaining the basis movement as a function of inventory levels based on the hypothesis that the marginal convenience yield on inventory declines at a decreasing rate as

economy wide estimates of the implications of climate change sea level rise the economy wide implications of sea level rise in 2050 are estimated using a static computable general equilibrium model this allows for a better estimate of the welfare effects of sea level rise than the common direct cost estimates and for an estimate of the impact of sea level rise on greenhouse gas emissions overall general equilibrium effects increase the welfare costs of sea level rise but not necessarily in every sector or region in the absence of coastal protection economies that rely most on agriculture are hit hardest although energy is substituted for land overall energy consumption falls with the shrinking economy hurting energy exporters with full coastal protection gdp increases particularly in regions with substantial dike building but utility falls least in regions that protect their coasts and export energy energy prices rise and energy consumption falls the costs of full protection exceed the costs of losing land the results also show direct costs the usual method for estimating welfare changes due to sea level rise are a bad approximation of the general equilibrium welfare effects previous estimates of the economic impact of sea level rise are therefore biased

from hybrids to hierarchies shareholder wealth effects of joint venture partner buyouts this study examines the parent firm performance implications of joint venture jv partner buyouts which involve the conversion of a hybrid governance structure to an internal unit within the firm s hierarchy transaction cost theory as developed and applied in the international literature and market entry research is extended to the post entry investment setting to isolate sources of value creation or dissipation from the governance changes effected by jv partner buyouts the evidence complements recent research on jv longevity and its determinants copyright 2001 john wiley sons ltd

competitive consequences of interfirm collaboration how joint ventures shape industry profitability recent international business research on international joint ventures focuses on how firms can use such ventures for knowledge access and learning to enhance their competitiveness thereby increasing competition in the industry by contrast research in industrial organization economics has observed that firms can also use joint ventures in various ways to attenuate competition in this paper we join these two streams of research to investigate the conditions under which joint ventures reduce or enhance competition by empirically testing the effects of different types of joint ventures on industry profitability our results suggest that joint ventures can be pro competitive or anti competitive depending on whether or not they are formed between competing firms represent foreign market entry and operate in relatively concentrated industries our paper shows the importance of adopting a contingent approach to evaluating the competitive implications of joint ventures and it also points to the value of reinvigorating international business research on the competitive context and consequences of interfirm collaboration

corporate combinations and common stock returns the case of joint ventures the gain to stockholders from mergers is well documented however there is little evidence as to whether the source of the gain is due to synergy or management displacement merger is just one of an almost limitless variety of ways in which firms combine resources to accomplish some objective a joint venture is another in addition to being of interest as an independent phenomenon because the original managements of the parent firms remain intact under a joint venture investigation of wealth gains from joint ventures provides an opportunity to isolate the management displacement hypothesis from the synergy hypothesis as the source of gains in corporate combinations our results are 1 there are significant wealth gains from joint ventures 2 the smaller partner earns a larger excess rate of return while the dollar gains are more equally divided and 3 the gains scaled by resources committed yield premiums similar to those in mergers we are inclined to interpret our results as supportive of the synergy hypothesis as the source of gain from corporate combinations this paper is an empirical investigation of the common stock returns of u s companies that enter into joint ventures with other u s companies we consider joint ventures in the context of what is by now a burgeoning literature examining the security returns of companies involved in intercorporate mergers and tender offers 1 in this context our objective is to provide evidence as to the source of the well documented gains to stockholders of firms involved in mergers and tender offers in addition joint ventures are an interesting economic phenomenon in their own right they are undertaken by many of the largest u s companies involve billions of dollars in capital expenditures annually and are subject to considerable scrutiny in the popular press in this regard our analysis provides data on what is as yet a relatively unexplored area of economic activity 2 a corporate merger represents the joining together of all the resources of two companies under a single management to accomplish some set of objectives empirical studies have found that mergers generally result in significant increases in the total market values of the merging firms with the stockholders of the

r d co practice and reverse knowledge integration in multinational firms this paper contributes to the developing literature on the management of distributed innovation in multinational firms we focus on a specific organizational mechanism r d co practice which we believe is an important facilitator of knowledge integration in multinationals with global innovation strategies in our formulation r d co practice joint technical activities between units increases levels of absorptive capacity and social capital among participating units thus increasing the likelihood that they will share knowledge at future time periods we find strong support for this hypothesis through an empirical analysis of reverse subsidiary to headquarters knowledge integration in two sectors automotive and pharmaceuticals over a 21 year period

market efficiency of brazilian exchange rate evidence from variance ratio statistics and technical trading rules abstract this study utilizes the variance ratio test to examine the behavior of brazilian exchange rate we show that adjustments for multiple tests and a bootstrap methodology must be employed in order to avoid size distortions we propose a block bootstrap scheme and show that it has much nicer properties than the traditional chow denning chow k v denning k c 1993 a simple multiple variance ratio test journal of econometrics 58 3 385 401 multiple variance ratio tests overall the method proposed in the paper provides evidence refuting the random walk behavior for the brazilian exchange rate for long investment horizon but consistent with the random walk hypothesis for short run horizon additionally we also test for the predictive power of variable moving average vma and trading range break trb technical rules and find evidence of forecasting ability for these rules nonetheless the excess return that can be obtained from such rules is not significant suggesting that such predictability is not economically significant

a general equilibrium analysis of climate change impacts on tourism this paper studies the economic implications of climate change induced variations in tourism demand using a world cge model the model is first re calibrated at some future years obtaining hypothetical benchmark equilibria which are subsequently perturbed by shocks simulating the effects of climate change we portray the impact of climate change on tourism by means of two sets of shocks occurring simultaneously the first set of shocks translate predicted variations in tourist flows into changes of consumption preferences for domestically produced goods the second set reallocate income across world regions simulating the effect of higher or lower tourists expenditure our analysis highlights that variations in tourist flows will affect regional economies in a way that is directly related to the sign and magnitude of flow variations at a global scale climate change will ultimately lead to a welfare loss unevenly spread across regions 2005 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

a structural model on the impact of prediscovery licensing and research joint ventures on innovation and product market efficiency abstract using a novel database on prediscovery licensing agreements one type of r d cooperation as well as detailed firm level and semiconductor market specific information we estimate the impact of prediscovery licensing agreements pdlas on innovation and product market efficiency our results show that pdlas reduce innovative activity in the semiconductor industry by 10 percent or 4089 patents throughout the 1989 1999 period on the contrary research joint ventures a different type of r d cooperation increase innovative activity based on a structural model we provide evidence that pdlas increase production costs and semiconductor prices by 1 percent which results in customers paying an additional 1 1 billion for semiconductors per year beyond the common concern that r d cooperations facilitate coordination activities in product markets via price fixing our study highlights that pdlas can be used as an instrument to coordinate r d activities which can reduce innovation activity and increase costs and prices

firm survival and industry evolution in vertically related populations this paper examines how the density and governance of vertically related populations affect the life chances of organizations we integrate the literatures on organizational ecology and vertical integration to develop a theory of how 1 specialized upstream industries affect downstream survival rates 2 the prevalence of different governance forms among upstream and downstream organizations moderates this relationship and 3 different forms of governance exert differential competitive pressures on focal organizations we find evidence supporting our hypotheses in an empirical examination of the downstream laser printer industry and upstream laser engine industry this paper was accepted by jesper sorensen organizations

the efficiency of financial futures markets tests of prediction accuracy abstract the prices of financial futures contracts can be interpreted as forecasts of the spot rates which will apply at the final delivery date of that contract financial futures contracts have been traded daily since the early 1980s and provide a substantial bank of data to test the forecasting efficiency of such contracts tests are carried out to examine whether the interest rates implied by the futures price for eurodollar and short sterling contracts are cointegrated with the final settlement price over forecasting horizons of 1 2 and 3 months similar analysis is carried out for the yen dollar exchange rate futures contract the paper then examines the forecasting performance of the three contracts over the forecasting horizons of 1 2 and 3 months and in particular whether the forecasts implied by the futures contract provide better predictions than the naive no change i e random walk a vector error correction model vecm or an arima model an examination of the relative efficiency of the markets for the three markets over the three time horizons is carried out and finally trading strategies are simulated to see whether excess profits can be achieved in fact the results suggest that both profits and losses would be attracted

economy wide estimates of the implications of climate change human health we study the economic impacts of climate change induced change in human health viz cardiovascular and respiratory disorders diarrhoea malaria dengue fever and schistosomiasis changes in morbidity and mortality are interpreted as changes in labour productivity and demand for health care and used to shock the gtap e computable general equilibrium model calibrated for the year 2050 gdp welfare and investment fall rise in regions with net negative positive health impacts prices production and terms of trade show a mixed pattern direct cost estimates common in climate change impact studies underestimate the true welfare losses

do firms learn to create value the case of alliances we investigate whether firms learn to manage interfirm alliances as experience accumulates we use contract specific experience measures in a data set of over 2000 joint ventures and licensing agreements and value creation measures derived from the abnormal stock returns surrounding alliance announcements learning effects are identified from the effects of unobserved heterogeneity in alliance capabilities we find evidence of large learning effects in managing joint ventures but no such evidence for licensing contracts the effects of learning on value creation are strongest for research joint ventures and weakest for marketing joint ventures these results are consistent with the view that learning effects are more important in situations characterized by greater contractual ambiguity copyright 2000 john wiley sons ltd

who will meet china s import demand for forest products summary via computable general equilibrium modeling we find that as a result of economic growth yuan appreciation and logging restrictions in china china s imports and exports of forest products would dramatically increase and china s imports would have displacement effects as timber exporting countries would increase their exports to china while reducing their shipments to other countries such displacement effects would make pressure on forests in supplying countries less than they otherwise might be global economic growth is a dominant driving force for china s imports russia southeast asia and africa would remain major foreign suppliers of logs to china while supply sources for chinese imported lumber and paper products would be relatively diverse

an analysis of cooperative research and development i analyze the effects of cooperative research whereby member firms agree to share the costs andfruits of a research project before they undertake it in this model industrywide agreements tend to have socially beneficial effects when the degree ofproduct market competition is low when there are r d spillovers in the absence of cooperation when a high degree of sharing is technologically feasible and when the agreement concerns basic research rather than development activities i show that a royalty free cross licensing agreement among any number offirms lowers the equilibrium level of innovation even though it increases the efficiency of r d through sharing

impacts of domestic joint ventures on industrial rates of return a pooled cross section analysis 1964 1975 empirical evidence on the relations among diversification concentration and profitability is inconclusive on whether any relation exists in this note changes in diversification and concentration in u s manufacturing industries are examined over the period 1963 72 when a major expansion in diversification took place the zero order correlations between changes in concentration and in diversification either out of or into an industry tend to be positive and significant the relation becomes insignificant when other variables especially market growth are controlled however a positive relation between changes in concentration and inbound diversification does remain significant among the less concentrated industries where it seems more likely to reflect real economies enjoyed by diversifying companies than the exercise of market power

validating energy oriented cge models although cge models have received heavy usage they are often criticized as being insufficiently validated key parameters are often not econometrically estimated and the performance of the model as a whole is rarely checked against historical outcomes as a consequence questions frequently arise as to how much faith one can put in cge results in this paper we employ a novel approach to the validation of a widely utilized global cge model gtap e by comparing the variance of model generated petroleum price distributions driven by historical demand and supply shocks to the model with observed five year moving average price distributions we conclude that energy demand in gtap e is far too price elastic over this time frame after incorporating the latest econometric estimates of energy demand and supply elasticities we revisit the validation question and find the model to perform more satisfactorily as a further check we compare a deterministic global general equilibrium simulation based on historical realizations over the 2001 2006 period during which petroleum prices rose sharply along with growing global energy demands as anticipated by the stochastic simulations the revised model parameters perform much better than the original gtap e parameters in this global general equilibrium context

are electricity risk premia affected by emission allowance prices evidence from the eex nord pool and powernext the links between emission and energy markets are of great interest to practitioners academics and policy makers in this paper it is conjectured that a positive relationship exists between emission allowance spot returns and electricity risk premia within the european union emissions trading scheme eu ets we discuss how this can be justified on the basis of the substantial uncertainties in the carbon markets we also argue that this link could be due to trading strategies followed by electricity producers who attempt to exploit their initial allocation of free allowances analysis of data from three major markets the eex nord pool and powernext offers empirical support to our conjecture these findings have significant policy implications since they imply that efforts should be made in order to reduce the uncertainty in the carbon markets by clearly defining the eu ets regulative framework and design over the next years moreover our results suggest that the allocation of free allowances and their unrestricted trading enable electricity producers to accomplish windfall profits in the derivatives market at the expense of other market participants

the dynamics of learning alliances competition cooperation and relative scope we show how the tension between cooperation and competition affects the dynamics of learning alliances private benefits and common benefits differ in the incentives that they create for investment in learning the competitive aspects of alliances are most severe when a firm s ratio of private to common benefits is high we introduce a measure relative scope of a firm in an alliance to show that the opportunity set of each firm outside an alliance crucially impacts its behavior within the alliance finally we suggest why firms might deviate from the theoretically optimal behavior patterns 1998 john wiley sons ltd

tourism development energy consumption and environmental kuznets curve trivariate analysis in the panel of developed and developing countries abstract the study investigates the relationship between economic growth carbon dioxide emissions tourism development energy demand domestic investment and health expenditures with an aim to test the validity of the environmental kuznets curve ekc hypothesis in the panel of three diversified world s region including east asia pacific european union and high income oecd and non oecd countries the study covers the period of last nine years i e 2005 2013 the study used the principal component analysis pca to construct tourism development index which is the amalgamation of number of tourists arrivals tourism receipts and international tourism expenditures the results validate the inverted u shaped relationship between carbon emissions and per capita income in the region the results further substantiate the following causal relationships i e i tourism induced carbon emissions ii energy induced emissions iii investment induced emissions iv growth led tourism v investment led tourism and vi health led tourism development in the region

financing innovations in uncertain networks filling in roadmap gaps in the semiconductor industry abstract complex technologies are often developed in inter organisational networks as actors try to reduce development costs and uncertainty about the viability of these innovations however as of to date it remains unclear how such innovations are financed collectively under conditions characterised by extreme uncertainty hence we explore how financial resources within innovation networks are mobilised and allocated this question is of particular importance to the development of system technologies that are viable only if all critical components are functional on time we explore this issue by reviewing the development of a radically new system technology for mass manufacturing microchips in the semiconductor industry in this industry technological roadmaps allow actors to identify critical components that still need to be developed these components are the so called roadmap gaps however suppliers can be reluctant to develop the required components at their own expense because of the high uncertainties involved in such cases providing financial support to component suppliers is a central task of innovation networks the empirical analysis shows that semiconductor manufacturers take both an individual and a collective approach to filling roadmap gaps this study contributes to prior research on innovation networks and financial management not only by identifying and clarifying these two approaches but also by revealing under which conditions they are used the findings are particularly relevant to scholars interested in the innovations of complex product systems cops

trading rule profits in european currency spot cross rates abstract the moving average ma trading rule is applied to six european spot cross rates jy bp dm bp jy dm sf dm sf bp and jy sf to see if opportunities for profitable trading exist the results suggest that ma trading rules are marginally profitable only for the jy dm and the jy sf cross rates while trading rules are not profitable for the other four cross rates bootstrapping and out of sample tests provide similar results examination of subsamples characterized by central bank intervention do not produce different results computation of box pierce statistics adjusted for heteroscedasticity show that daily returns for all six cross rates are serially uncorrelated overall the results suggests that cross rates are sufficiently transparent to eliminate ma trading rule profit

arms race or detente how interfirm alliance announcements change the stock market valuation of rivals most prior event studies find that the announcement of a new alliance is accompanied by a positive stock market response for the partners this result has usually been interpreted as evidence for the prevailing view that alliances are effective vehicles for partners to acquire or access new skills and thus become stronger competitors however partners should also earn positive abnormal returns if alliances are used to shape competitive interactions attenuating competitive intensity industry wide in this study we disentangle these different mechanisms by examining how alliance announcements affect the stock market s evaluation of allying firms rivals if an alliance is expected to make partner firms more competitive this should lead to negative abnormal returns for partners rivals if an alliance is expected to facilitate a reduction in competitive intensity this should lead to positive abnormal returns for rivals results from an event study analysis of research and development alliances in the telecommunications and electronics industries during 1996 2004 provide evidence consistent with competition attenuation in some alliances our research thus challenges the increasingly narrow focus on learning and resource accumulation through alliances and calls for broader consideration of the roles and effects of collaboration both for individual firms and for industry structure

learning from competing partners outcomes and durations of scale and link alliances in europe north america and asia this paper investigates the outcomes and durations of strategic alliances among competing firms using alliance outcomes as indicators of learning by partner firms we show that alliance outcomes vary systematically across link and scale alliances link alliances are interfirm partnerships to which partners contribute different capabilities while scale alliances are partnerships to which partners contribute similar capabilities we find that partners are more likely to reorganize or take over link alliances than scale alliances by contrast scale alliances are more likely to continue without material changes the two types of alliances are equally likely to shut down at similar ages these results support the view that link alliances lead to greater levels of learning and capability acquisition between the partners than do scale alliances copyright 2000 john wiley sons ltd

implications of a long term increase in oil prices for tourism it is expected that global oil prices will increase in the future assessing the overall economic impacts on tourism is difficult as oil price rises will be concomitant with global changes in other commodity prices exchange rates and incomes a general equilibrium perspective is therefore presented in this paper the model couples a global general equilibrium model with a purpose built cge model of new zealand which focuses on describing tourism supply and demand in some detail the results indicate a decrease in real gross national disposable income of 1 7 for a doubling of oil price and a 9 reduction in the real value of tourism exports as a result of segment specific price increases and differing income and exchange rate effects and elasticities the reduction in demand for tourism in new zealand by 18 segments differs substantially the greatest reduction in demand is observed for tourists from the united kingdom

dancing with the enemy relational hazards and the contingent value of repeat exchanges in m a markets i examine the problem of relational hazards between repeat exchange partners and the contingent roles of trade uncertainty and future exchange prospects in moderating the potentially conflicting effects of past exchanges on these hazards thereby facilitating or restraining the formation of relational embeddedness on the data of advisory relationships in u s mergers and acquisitions from 1981 to 2004 i find that firms that repeatedly hire the same investment banks as financial advisors tend to overpay for acquisition targets as reflected by negative investor reactions measured in the cumulative abnormal return in addition the degree of overpayment increases with the frequency of prior exchanges this adverse effect of exchange history grows if the uncertainty regarding the target firm rises however better prospects for future business with acquiring firms help mitigate this negative effect although this moderating effect varies across the types of exchange experience the findings suggest that a potentially complex and nuanced process underlies repeat exchanges which are an oft claimed precursor of relational embeddedness to deliver tangible economic benefits this study contributes to the emerging literature on the dark side of embeddedness and more broadly to the sociology of markets and organizations by substantiating the contingency mechanisms that shape the value of a repeat relationship in market exchanges

the economic effects of climate change greenhouse gas emissions are fundamental both to the world s energy system and to its food production the production of co2 the predominant gas implicated in climate change is intrinsic to fossil fuel combustion specifically thermal energy is generated by breaking the chemical bonds in the carbohydrates oil coal and natural gas and oxidizing the components to co2 and h2o one cannot have cheap energy without carbon dioxide emissions similarly methane ch4 emissions an important greenhouse gas in its own right are necessary to prevent the build up of hydrogen in anaerobic digestion and decomposition one cannot have beef mutton dairy or rice without methane emissions climate change is the mother of all externalities larger more complex and more uncertain than any other environmental problem the sources of greenhouse gas emissions are more diffuse than any other environmental problem every company every farm every household emits some greenhouse gases the effects are similarly pervasive weather affects agriculture energy use health and many aspects of nature which in turn affects everything and everyone the causes and consequences of climate change are very diverse and those in low income countries who contribute least to climate change are most vulnerable to its effects climate change is also a long term problem some greenhouse gases have an atmospheric life time measured in tens of thousands of years the quantities of emissions involved are enormous in 2000 carbon dioxide emissions alone and excluding land use change were 24 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide tco2

the sectoral and regional economic consequences of climate change to 2060 this paper presents a new detailed global quantitative assessment of the economic consequences of climate change i e climate damages to 2060 the analysis is based on an assessment of a wide range of impacts changes in crop yields loss of land and capital due to sea level rise changes in fisheries catches capital damages from hurricanes labour productivity changes and changes in health care expenditures from diseases and heat stress changes in tourism flows and changes in energy demand for cooling and heating a multi region multi sector dynamic computable general equilibrium model is used to link different impacts until 2060 directly to specific drivers of economic growth including labour productivity capital stocks and land supply as well as assess the indirect effects these impacts have on the rest of the economy and on the economies of other countries it uses a novel production function approach to identify which aspects of economic activity are directly affected by climate change the model results show that damages are projected to rise twice as fast as global economic activity global annual gross domestic product losses are projected to be 1 0 3 3 by 2060 of the impacts that are modelled impacts on labour productivity and agriculture are projected to have the largest negative economic consequences damages from sea level rise grow most rapidly after the middle of the century damages to energy and tourism are very small from a global perspective as benefits in some regions balance damages in others climate induced damages from hurricanes may have significant effects on local communities but the macroeconomic consequences are projected to be very small net economic consequences are projected to be especially large in africa and asia where the regional economies are vulnerable to a range of different climate impacts for some countries in higher latitudes economic benefits can arise from gains in tourism energy and health the global assessment also shows that countries that are relatively less affected by climate change may reap trade gains

how do international joint ventures create shareholder value this study attempts to identify conditions under which announcements of international joint venture jv formation lead to increases in shareholder value of participating u s firms it does so by combining the singular theoretical foci of previous work on the topic and specifying previously unconsidered but conceptually important influences on firms expected jv performance the study s findings indicate support for the hypothesized effect of variables in partners task related competitive and structural context s but not those in these firms partner related and institutional context s specifically partner venture business relatedness the pursuit of r d oriented activity greater equity ownership and large firm size all are found to have a positive impact on firms jv based value creation although this study finds support for the performance impact of firm level competition the direction of this impact is contrary to that hypothesized no support is found for hypothesized effect of partner partner business relatedness previous jv experience partners relative firm size national cultural relatedness and jv host country political risk copyright 2000 john wiley sons ltd

water scarcity and the impact of improved irrigation management a computable general equilibrium analysis increasing water scarcity combined with an increasing demand for food and water for irrigation call for a careful revision of water use in agriculture currently less than 60 of all the water used for irrigation is effectively used by crops based on the new version of the gtap w model we analyze the effect of potential water savings and the welfare implications of improvements in irrigation efficiency worldwide the results show that a water policy directed to improve irrigation efficiency led to global and regional water savings but it is not beneficial for all regions the final effect on regional welfare will depend on the interaction of several different causes for instance higher irrigation efficiency changes opportunity costs and reverses comparative advantages modifying regional trade patterns and welfare for water stressed regions the effects on welfare are mostly positive for nonwater scarce regions the results are more mixed and mostly negative the results show that exports of virtual water are not exclusive of water abundant regions

climate change and adaptation the case of nigerian agriculture the present research offers an economic assessment of climate change impacts on the four major crop families characterizing nigerian agriculture the evaluation is performed by shocking land productivity in a computable general equilibrium model tailored to replicate nigerian economic development up to 2050 the detail of land uses in the model has been increased by differentiating land types per agro ecological zones uncertainty about future climate is captured using as inputs yield changes computed by a crop model under ten general circulation models runs climate change turns out to be negative for nigeria in the medium term with production losses and increase in crop prices higher food dependency on foreign imports and gdp losses in all the simulations after 2025 in a second part of the paper a cost effectiveness analysis of adaptation in nigerian agriculture is conducted the adaptation practices considered are a mix of cheaper soft measures and more costly hard irrigation expansion the main result is that the cost effectiveness of the whole package depends crucially on the possibility of implementing adaptation by exploiting low cost opportunities which show a benefit cost ratio larger than one in all the climate regimes

a regional dynamic general equilibrium model of alternative climate change strategies outcomes and noncooperative equilibria this study finds that cooperative policies show much higher levels of emissions reductions than do noncooperative strategies that there are substantial differences in the levels of controls in both the cooperative and the noncooperative policies among different countries and that high income countries may be the major losers from cooperation jel h41 q4 q2 q20

the damage costs of climate change toward more comprehensive calculations it is argued that estimating the damage costs of a certain benchmark climate change is not sufficient what is needed are cost functions and confidence intervals although these are contained in the integrated models and their technical manuals this paper brings them into the open in order to stimulate discussion after briefly reviewing the benchmark climate change damage costs region specific cost functions are presented which distinguish tangible from intangible losses and the losses due to a changing climate from those due to a changed climate furthermore cost functions are assumed to be quadratic as an approximation of the unknown but presumably convex functions results from the damage module of the integrated climate economy model fund are presented next uncertainties are incorporated and expected damages are calculated it is shown that because of convex loss functions and right skewed uncertain ties the risk premium is substantial calling for more action than analysis based on best guess estimates the final section explores some needs for further scientific research

inflation targeting in brazil constructing credibility under exchange rate volatility abstract this paper assesses the challenges faced by the inflation targeting regime in brazil the inflation targeting framework has played a critical role in macroeconomic stabilization we stress two important challenges construction of credibility and exchange rate volatility the estimations indicate the following results i the inflation targets have worked as an important coordinator of expectations ii the central bank has reacted strongly to inflation expectations iii there has been a reduction in the degree of inflation persistence and iv the exchange rate pass through for administered or monitored prices is two times higher than for market prices

the damage costs of climate change towards a dynamic representation economic assessments of climate change impacts are commonly presented as the effect of a climate change associated with a doubling of the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide on the current economy this paper is an attempt to express impact as a function of both climate change and socio economic change with regard to climate change issues discussed are level versus rate of change speed of adaptation speed of restoration and value adjustment and symmetry with regard to socio economic change agriculture migration and the valuation of intangible losses are addressed uncertainty and higher order impacts are treated briefly it is qualitatively argued and quantitatively illustrated that these issues matter a great deal for the damage profile over the next century a damage model based on my best guesses is presented in the appendix

event studies in economics and finance the event study is an important research tool in economics and finance the goal of an event study is to measure the effects of an economic event on the value of firms event study methods exploit the fact that given rationality in the marketplace the effects of an event will be reflected immediately in security prices thus the impact can be measured by examining security prices surrounding the event in this paper event study methods are described including some of the potential complications an example is included to illustrate the approach

the use of fundamental and technical analyses by foreign exchange dealers hong kong evidence abstract this article reports the results of a questionnaire survey conducted in february 1995 on the use by foreign exchange dealers in hong kong of fundamental and technical analyses to form their forecasts of exchange rate movements our findings reveal that 85 of respondents rely on both fundamental and technical analyses for predicting future rate movements at different time horizons at shorter horizons there exists a skew towards reliance on technical analysis as opposed to fundamental analysis but the skew becomes steadily reversed as the length of horizon considered is extended technical analysis is considered slightly more useful in forecasting trends than fundamental analysis but significantly more useful in predicting turning points interest rate related news is found to be a relatively important fundamental factor in exchange rate forecasting while moving average and or other trend following systems are the most useful technical technique

internationalization of corporate technology through strategic partnering an empirical investigation this paper explores some trends in the internationalization of corporate r d efforts innovation output and strategic technology partnering in the past decade inter firm strategic technology partnering through which companies share their innovation efforts supplements the standard indicators of technological competence to broaden the scope from internal innovation processes to a wider range of innovative activities the international information technology industry is singled out for empirical study the main conclusion of this contribution is that even in a global industry such as information technology internationalization of innovation although by no means insignificant appears less important than expected