women s work sibling competition and children s school performance this research offers an interpretation of the relationship between fertility child spacing family resources and market work by mothers and the subsequent cognitive skills of grade schoolers as reported by their teachers first an approach to fertility as the outcome of a deliberate choice process is developed and then empirical evidence from a small panel of u s households first interviewed in 1975 76 when they had preschool children is presented in a 1981 82 reinterview a supplementary project was that of obtaining teacher ratings of school performance of individual children large family size as measured by the number of siblings of given age and sex in the household during preschool years in 1975 76 has an important negative impact on the child s subsequent grade school performance boy siblings in nearby age ranges have the most negative impact on performance while teenage siblings of either sex have no systematic adverse effect parental resources as measured by income education child care time and a mother s reduced market time are associated with greater cognitive skills and can offset the apparent disadvantage of having siblings in nearby age intervals there appears to be a significant tradeoff between a market career and a home career for women women who have more children spaced over wider age intervals and who devote more time to child care and less to market work presumably get more benefits from their home career in the form of enhanced child development on the other hand full time market work i e hours in the labor market for pay is important for earnings growth of the mother mary corcoran greg duncan and michael ponza 1983 and family income has a favorable effect on school performance so the apparent choices facing women are more equivocal

when does communication improve coordination we study costless pre play communication of intentions among inexperienced players using the level k model of strategic thinking to describe players beliefs we fully characterize the effects of preplay communication in symmetric 2 2 games one way communication weakly increases coordination on nash equilibrium outcomes although average payoffs sometimes decrease two way communication further improves payoffs in some games but is detrimental in others moving beyond the class of symmetric 2 2 games we find that communication facilitates coordination in common interest games with positive spillovers and strategic complementarities but there are also games in which any type of communication hampers coordination jel c72 d83

taking stock monetary policy transmission to equity markets this paper analyses the effects of u s monetary policy on stock markets we present evidence that individual stocks react in a highly heterogeneous fashion to u s monetary policy shocks and relate this heterogeneity to financial constraints and tobin s q first we show that there are strong industry specific effects of u s monetary policy second we also find that for the 500 individual stocks comprising the s p500 the firms with low cash flows small size poor credit ratings low debt to capital ratios high price earnings ratios or a high tobin s q are affected significantly more by monetary policy

new measures of monetary policy surprises and jumps in interest rates abstract we propose new surprise measures to characterise two important dimensions of monetary policy our measures outperform the traditional monetary shocks in explaining variation of interest rates in the event study framework we also study the extent to which the ecb caused jumps in euro area interest rates the new surprises still prevail upon the traditional ones jumps play a great role in the variation of interest rates and the ecb induced several jumps with its decisions but its predictability has improved over time we find that although the surprise measures become somewhat distorted due to money market tensions during the financial turmoil our model still provides an interesting insight into interest rate behaviour throughout the crisis

panel estimates of male female earnings functions this paper applies single and simultaneous equation fixed effects fe and random effects re panel data estimation techniques to obtain male and female earnings function parameters using the panel study of income dynamics psid the paperfinds that earnings appreciation with experience and depreciation with labor market intermittency are comparable for men and women further skill atrophy rates increase not decrease once one controls for heterogeneity and endogeneity finally the unexplained male female wage differential declines from 40 percent to 20 percent when one adjusts for heterogeneity adjusting for endogeneity depends very much on the choice of instruments however when adjusting for endogeneity the gender earnings gap falls and approaches zero percent these results hold for two separate subsamples so that the estimates appear robust independent of sample selectivity

asymmetric effects of federal funds target rate changes on s p100 stock returns volatilities and correlations we study the effects of fomc announcements of federal funds target rate decisions on individual stock returns volatilities and correlations at the intraday level for all three characteristics we find that the stock market responds differently to positive and negative target rate surprises first the average response to positive surprises that is bad news for stocks is larger second in case of bad news the mere occurrence of a surprise matters most whereas for good news its magnitude is more important these new insights are possible due to the use of high frequency intraday data

quantitative easing and the uk stock market does the bank of england information dissemination strategy matter we use intraday aggregate stock market data and an event study framework to assess the uk s equity market reaction to the unexpected element of the bank of england monetary policy committee s mpc asset purchase announcements for the 2009 2017 period we assess the reactions of equity returns and their volatility over various time frames both preceding and following the mpc announcements our results show that the uk unconventional monetary policy shocks have a significant impact on domestic equity returns and volatilities the strength of this impact depends on the bank s information dissemination through inflation reports and the publication of the mpc s voting records jel g14 e44 e52

valuing lost home production of dual earner couples using a life cycle model in which women divide their time between home and market work we establish a link between retirement wealth and the value of forgone home production we use data from the health and retirement study to estimate the model s parameters and adjust the growth rate of gdp to reflect reductions in non market output we find that the value of forgone home production is modest about 25 percent of women s measured earnings

a joint dynamic model of fertility and work of married women this article estimates a dynamic model of fertility and labor supply of married women drawn from the national longitudinal survey of young women 1968 91 it distinguishes part time and full time employment sectors which differ by pecuniary and nonpecuniary returns and transferability of human capital the model with unobserved heterogeneity in earning ability and preferences for children fits the data and produces reasonable forecasts of labor force participation in decisions the estimates unpack important features of the persistence in labor market decisions intertemporal substitution of leisure over the life cycle and the effect of work interruptions due to childbirth on lifetime utility

a longitudinal analysis of white women s wages according to human capital theory women s work participation decisions will strongly affect their wages and wage growth we test human capital predictions about how labor force withdrawals both past and prospective part time work experience and working in male rather than in female jobs affect wages and wage growth for white women we do this by estimating a wage change model for the years 1967 1979 for a national sample of white women we find that wages drop immediately following withdrawals but that this is followed by a rapid wage growth so that the net loss in wages from dropping out of the labor force is small we further find that wage growth is not significantly lower in female than in male jobs but that part time work experience does not lead to significant wage growth in either male or female jobs

time off at what price the effects of career interruptions on earnings using the national longitudinal survey of youth 1979 the author explores how nonemployment spells and career expectations affected men s and women s wages wage profiles were affected by total non

communication and coordination in a two stage game we study the impact of communication on behavior in a two stage coordination game with asymmetric payoffs we test experimentally whether individuals can avoid a head to head confrontation by means of coordinated strategies in particular we analyze whether and how quickly a conflict avoidance take turn strategy can emerge first our results show that players learn to solve the conflict by choosing opposite options at both stages of the game second many adopt a take turn strategy to sustain coordination over time and alleviate the inequality induced by the asymmetry of payoffs third communication increases the likelihood of conflict resolution even when a single pair member has the right to communicate

it s what you say not what you pay an experimental study of manager employee relationships in overcoming coordination failure we study manager employee interactions in experiments set in a corporate environment where payoffs depend on employees coordinating at high effort levels the underlying game being played repeatedly by employees is a weak link game in the absence of managerial intervention subjects invariably slip into coordination failure to overcome a history of coordination failure managers have two instruments at their disposal increasing employees financial incentives to coordinate and communication with employees we find that communication is a more effective tool than incentive changes for leading organizations out of performance traps examining the content of managers communication the most effective messages specifically request a high effort point out the mutual benefits of high effort and imply that employees are being paid well

early career work experience and gender wage differentials we estimate a wage model that includes an array of variables measuring the fraction of time worked during each year of the career this array fully characterizes past employment experience regardless of how sporadic it has been our model yields substantially higher estimated returns to experience and lower returns to tenure than do models that measure experience cumulatively and use the standard quadratic functional form we find that the data reject the standard model but fail to reject our model furthermore we find that 12 of the male female wage gap is due to differences in the timing of work experience

simultaneous monetary policy announcements and international stock markets response an intraday analysis abstract this paper investigates the return and volatility response of major european and us equity indices to monetary policy surprises by utilizing extensive intraday data on 5 min price quotes along with a comprehensive dataset on monetary policy decisions and macroeconomic news announcements the results indicate that the monetary policy decisions generally exert immediate and significant influence on stock index returns and volatilities in both european and the us markets the findings also show that press conferences held by the european central bank ecb that follow monetary policy decisions on the same day have a clear impact on european index return volatilities this implies that they convey additional important information to market participants overall our analysis suggests that the use of high frequency data is critical to separate the effect of monetary policy actions from those of macroeconomic news announcements on stock index returns and volatilities

roughing it up including jump components in the measurement modeling and forecasting of return volatility a rapidly growing literature has documented important improvements in financial return volatility measurement and forecasting via use of realized variation measures constructed from high frequency returns coupled with simple modeling procedures building on recent theoretical results in barndorff nielsen and shephard 2004a 2005 for related bi power variation measures the present paper provides a practical and robust framework for non parametrically measuring the jump component in asset return volatility in an application to the dm exchange rate the s p500 market index and the 30 year u s treasury bond yield we find that jumps are both highly prevalent and distinctly less persistent than the continuous sample path variation process moreover many jumps appear directly associated with specific macroeconomic news announcements separating jump from non jump movements in a simple but sophisticated volatility forecasting model we find that almost all of the predictability in daily weekly and monthly return volatilities comes from the non jump component our results thus set the stage for a number of interesting future econometric developments and important financial applications by separately modeling forecasting and pricing the continuous and jump components of the total return variation process

asymmetric effects of industrial production money supply and exchange rate changes on stock returns in turkey the aim of this article is twofold first it examines the asymmetric effects of industrial production money supply and rer on stock returns in turkey by using the non linear autoregressive distri

the effects of market organization on conspiracies in restraint of trade abstract mindful of the market structure conduct performance paradigm fundamental to industrial organization research this paper uses laboratory experimental techniques to study the impact of conspiratorial opportunities on market performance we compare posted offer markets where sellers but not buyers are all conspiratorial opportunities with observations from three control groups 1 posted offer markets without conspiratorial opportunities 2 double auction markets with conspiratorial opportunities and 3 posted offer markets with true single seller monopolists the basic conclusions generated by our experimental design are 1 seller conspiracies in posted offer markets tend to raise prices but not profits relative to similarly organized markets without conspiracies 2 posted offer conspiracies tend to generate higher prices but not profits than double auction conspiracies and 3 posted offer monopolies tend to generate higher profits but not prices then posted offer conspiracies

a theory of ambiguity credibility and inflation under discretion and asymmetric information this paper develops a positive theory of credibility ambiguity and inflation under discretion and asymmetric information the monetary policymaker maximizes his own politically motivated objective function that is positively related to economic stimulation through monetary surprises and negatively related to monetary growth the relative importance he assigns to each target shifts stochastically through time his current preference trade off is known to him but not to the public when choosing the state contingent path of money growth for the present and the future the policymaker compares the benefits from current stimulation with the costs associated with higher future inflation expectations current monetary growth conveys information to the public about future money growth because there is persistence in the policymaker s objectives although expectations are rational information is imperfect because monetary control procedures are imprecise as a result the public cannot correctly distinguish persistent changes of emphasis on different policy objectives from transitory monetary control errors the public becomes aware of changes gradually by observing past monetary growth credibility is defined in terms of the speed with which the public recognizes changes in the objectives of the policymaker credibility is lower the noisier monetary control and the more stable the objectives of the policymaker looser monetary control and a higher degree of time preference on the part of the policymaker induce him to produce higher and more variable monetary growth when the policymaker is free to determine the accuracy of monetary control he does not always choose the most effective control available in spite of the fact that monetary surprises always have an expected value of zero the reason is that ambiguous control procedures enable the policymaker to generate positive surprises when he cares more than on average about economic stimulation he leaves the inevitable negative surprises for periods in which he cares more about inflation prevention this result provides an explanation for the fed s preference for ambiguity recently documented by goodfriend 1986 the policymaker is more likely to pick more ambiguous control procedures the more uncertain his objectives and the higher his time preference the paper also provides a theoretical underpinning for the well documented crosscountry positive correlation between the level and the variability of inflation

the wages of motherhood better or worse data from two british cohort studies show that women with children have lower wages than childless women we develop an innovative decomposition of this family gap the crude pay gap between mothers and childless women in their thirties was similar in 1978 and 1991 but low pay in part time work became more important in explaining this gap and human capital less so we find that among full time employees women who broke their employment at childbirth were subsequently paid less than childless women in contrast mothers who maintained employment continuity were as well paid as childless women but neither were as well remunerated as men copyright 1999 by oxford university press

changes in the male female wage gap 1976 85 this study uses detailed information on work experience tenure and on the job training collected in the 1976 and 1985 questionnaires of the panel study of income dynamics to account for changes in wage differentials between white men and white women over these nine years decompositions of changes in the wage gap are used to illustrate the contribution of individual factors between 1976 and 1985 the wage gap between white men and women narrowed by approximately 4 percent this study finds that nearly 50 percent of this reduction was due to average changes in job tenure and other work history variables over this period

how do exchange rates co move a study on the currencies of five inflation targeting countries abstract this paper does three things first it explores the type of asymmetry in exchange rate correlation for five inflation targeting countries we show their currencies co move more closely with the currencies of some influential foreign countries during joint appreciations than joint depreciations against a world currency second it establishes empirically the linkage between interest rate differentials and exchange rate correlation we find evidence that both widening and narrowing interest rate differentials will reduce the correlation third it proposes a new version of the asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation model the model proves to be capable of providing great insight into the two issues investigated

stock market reaction to fed funds rate surprises state dependence and the financial crisis this paper examines the response of us stock returns to federal funds rate ffr surprises between 1989 and 2012 focusing on the impact of the recent financial crisis we find that outside the crisis period stock prices increased as a response to unexpected ffr cuts state dependence is identified with stocks exhibiting larger increases when interest rate easing coincided with recessions bear markets and tightening credit conditions however an important structural shift occurred during the crisis changing the stocks response to ffr shocks and the nature of state dependence throughout the crisis period stocks did not react positively to unexpected ffr cuts which were interpreted as signals of worsening future economic conditions this triggered a rebalancing of investment portfolios away from falling equities and towards safe haven assets our results highlight the severity of the crisis and the ineffectiveness of conventional monetary policy close to the zero lower bound

the short run dynamics of the price adjustment to new information we examine how prices in interest rate and foreign exchange futures markets adjust to the new information contained in scheduled macroeconomic news releases in the very short run using 10 second returns and tick by tick data we find that prices adjust in a series of numerous small but rapid price changes that begin within 10 seconds of the news release and are basically completed within 40 seconds of the release there is some evidence that prices overreact in the first 40 seconds but that this is corrected in the second or third minute after the release while volatility tends to be higher than normal just before the news release there is no evidence of information leakage in our analysis we correct for the biases created by bid ask spreads and tick by tick data

pre announcement effects news effects and volatility monetary policy and the stock market abstract i examine pre announcement and news effects on the stock market in the context of public disclosure of monetary policy decisions the results suggest that the stock market tends to be relatively quiet conditional volatility is abnormally low on days preceding regularly scheduled policy announcements although this calming effect is routinely reported in anecdotal press accounts it is statistically significant only over the past four to five years a result that i attribute to changes in the federal reserve s disclosure practices in early 1994 the paper also looks at how the actual interest rate decisions of policy makers affect stock market volatility the element of surprise in such decisions tends to boost stock market volatility significantly in the short run and positive surprises higher than expected values of the target federal funds rate tend to have a larger effect on volatility than negative surprises the implications of the results for broader issues in the finance and economics literatures are also discussed

worker effort decisions and efficient gender specific wage tenure profiles i introduction during the past thirty years women have increased their labor force participation female labor market intermittency has decreased and women s total labor market experience and years of tenure with the current employer have increased what these trends imply about the evolution of the gender gap in wages depends in part on gender differences in returns to tenure it is therefore surprising that economists have all but ignored the empirical finding that women have higher returns to tenure than do men over a significant portion of their working lives one reason why this finding has been ignored or treated as an anomaly may be the lack of theoretical constructs which predict an inverse gender gap in returns to tenure several labor market models predict that women should have lower returns to tenure than men human capital theory offers the most frequently cited explanation of flatter earnings profiles for female workers according to human capital theory gains from specialization and exchange lead to one household member specializing in home production and the other in market work since only women bear children historically the outcome of the exchange has been that women have specialized in home production indeed all surveys of time use indicate that women spend on average two to three times as long on housework as men as a consequence of this allocation women anticipate intermittent labor force participation and fewer years overall in the labor force than men this pattern too is borne out in national surveys which invariably find shorter average tenure and fewer total years of labor market experience for women than for men women typically have shorter completed job spells as well hall 1982 table 5 presents evidence that the gender gap in completed job duration is quite large he estimates that 63 8 percent of men but only 49 6 percent of women hold jobs with eventual tenure of at least five years with 37 3 and 15 1 percent of men and women respectively holding jobs with eventual tenure of at least twenty years because of the greater intermittency and shorter anticipated work history for women than men women will find it optimal to acquire less human capital than men 1 lesser quantities of general human capital tends to flatten both the observed earnings experience profile and the observed earnings tenure profile two factors contribute to this pattern first skills deteriorate during periods out of the labor market as in mincer and polachek 1974 which flattens the earnings experience profile for women relative to men second women anticipating discontinuous work histories select into occupations with flatter earnings profiles to minimize the penalty to labor force withdrawals as in polachek 1981 the effects of firm specific human capital on gender differences in wage tenure profiles vary across models for example kuhn 1993 constructs an elegant game theoretic model of gender differences in training and wages if women have a higher exogenous exit rate than men in equilibrium they will be placed in jobs with lower levels of firm specific training with a positive relation between training and productivity and a common share rate of the costs and benefits of specific training for men and women the wage tenure profiles of men will be steeper than those for women in contrast becker and lindsay 1994 argue that firm specific human capital leads to higher returns to tenure for women than men becker and lindsay assume that men and women have the same level of firm specific training however women have greater variance in their opportunity cost of remaining with a firm and so are more likely than men to separate inefficiently by giving women a greater share of both the costs and benefits of firm specific human capital through a steeper wage tenure profile firms reduce undesirable turnover although human capital arguments dominate the literature on gender differences in the labor market other models of wage growth predict flatter wage tenure profiles for women

events that shook the market tick data on the standard and poor s 500 stock index s p 500 futures contract and newswire searches are used to match events to large 1 to 5 minute stock price changes sixty nine events that led to large stock price changes are identified between 1982 and 1999 53 of which are directly or indirectly related to monetary policy many large stock price changes have no events associated with them

have increases in federal reserve transparency improved private sector interest rate forecasts yes this paper shows that since the late 1980s u s financial markets and private sector forecasters have become 1 better able to forecast the federal funds rate at horizons out to several months 2 less surprised by federal reserve announcements 3 more certain of their interest rate forecasts ex ante as measured by interest rate options and 4 less diverse in the cross sectional variety of their interest rate forecasts we also present evidence that strongly suggests increases in federal reserve transparency played a role for example private sector forecasts of gdp and inflation have not experienced similar improvements over the same period indicating that the improvement in interest rate forecasts has been special

an experiment on risk taking and evaluation periods does the period over which individuals evaluate outcomes influence their investment in risky assets results from this study show that the more frequently returns are evaluated the more risk averse investors will be the results are in line with the behavioral hypothesis of myopic loss aversion which assumes that people are myopic in evaluating outcomes over time and are more sensitive to losses than to gains the results have relevance for the equity premium puzzle and also for the marketing strategies of fund managers

changes in uk monetary policy rules and discretion in practice abstract in october 1992 following sterling s departure from the exchange rate mechanism britain adopted a new framework for monetary policy that comprised two components first an explicit target for inflation and second institutional changes designed to give greater influence to the bank of england by increasing the transparency and openness of the process by which interest rates are set this paper analyses those changes from the perspective of the debate on rules versus discretion and argues that an appropriate design of institutional arrangements can provide incentives for central bankers to pursue the first best state contingent monetary policy

how markets process information news releases and volatility we examine the impact of scheduled macroeconomic news announcements on interest rate and foreign exchange futures markets we find these announcements are responsible for most of the observed time of day and day of the week volatility patterns in these markets while the bulk of the price adjustment to a major announcement occurs within the first minute volatility remains substantially higher than normal for roughly fifteen minutes and slightly elevated for several hours nonetheless these subsequent price adjustments are basically independent of the first minute s return we identify those announcements with the greatest impact on these markets we examine the impact on interest rate and foreign exchange markets of scheduled macroeconomic news releases such as the employment report the consumer price index cpi and the producer price index ppi many market participants believe that such announcements have a major impact on financial markets indeed a small industry devoted to predicting the figures to be released in upcoming releases has evolved in recent years with the exception of the weekly money supply figures however the impact of such announcements on financial markets has received scant attention 1 this is doubly surprising given the considerable research interest in market volatility since these news releases are a potential source of much of this volatility consider for instance figure 1 as shown there prices in interest rate and foreign exchange futures markets are much more volatile between 8 30 and 8 35 a m eastern time et than during any other five minute trading period including

macroeconomic news announcements and stock market jump intensity dynamics abstract this paper examines the effect of macroeconomic releases on stock market volatility through a poisson gaussian garch process with time varying jump intensity which is allowed to respond to such information the day of the announcement per se is found to have little impact on jump intensities employment releases are an exception however when macroeconomic surprises are considered inflation shocks show persistent effects while monetary policy and employment shocks reveal only short lived effects also the jump intensity responds asymmetrically to macroeconomic shocks evidence on macroeconomic variables relevance in explaining jump dynamics and improving volatility forecasts on event days is provided

are two heads better than one monetary policy by committee two experiments were conducted to test the common hypothesis that groups make decisions more slowly than individuals one of these experiments imitates real life monetary policy decisions in both cases the hypothesis is found wanting groups are not slower than individuals in both experiments we also find that group decisions are on average better than individual decisions this holds regardless of whether the groups make decisions by unanimity or majority rule simple mechanical theories of group decisionmaking that the group follows its average player median player or best player do not explain the results group interactions seem to matter

communication by central bank committee members different strategies same effectiveness the paper assesses the communication strategies of the federal reserve the bank of england and the european central bank and their effectiveness we find that the effectiveness of communication is not independent from the decision making process the paper shows that the federal reserve has been pursuing a highly individualistic communication strategy amid a collegial approach to decision making while the bank of england is using a collegial communication strategy and highly individualistic decision making the european central bank ecb has chosen a collegial approach both in its communication and in its decision making assessing these strategies we find that predictability of policy decisions and the responsiveness of financial markets to communication are equally good for the federal reserve and the ecb this suggests that there may not be a single best approach to designing a central bank communication strategy

information and conspiracy in sealed bid auctions abstract this paper examines the allocative properties of the sealed bid institution when different aspects of the available information to bidders are considered specifically we examine a the effect on price determination in repeated sealed bid auctions of post auction revelation of losing bids and b the effect on price determination when conspiratorial discussions are allowed

announcements and the effectiveness of monetary policy a view from the us prime rate abstract until 1994 the us prime rate was said to be sticky because of its irresponsiveness to short term interest rates after the fed started the practice of announcing its intended funds rate in 1994 however the prime rate has come to react immediately to shifts in the target rate this paper attempts to explain how the fed s policy announcements changed the behavior of the prime rate by using a simple menu cost model it shows that an increase in the expected duration of funds rate targets was essential to the improvement in the target rate pass through

investor sentiment and the stock market s reaction to monetary policy this paper shows that monetary policy decisions have a significant effect on investor sentiment the effect of monetary news on sentiment depends on market conditions bull versus bear market we also find that monetary policy actions in bear market periods have a larger effect on stocks that are more sensitive to changes in investor sentiment and credit market conditions overall the results show that investor sentiment plays a significant role in the effect of monetary policy on the stock market

learning information and sorting in market entry games theory and evidence previous data from experiments on market entry games n player games where each player faces a choice between entering a market and staying out appear inconsistent with either mixed or pure nash equilibria here we show that in this class of game learning theory predicts sorting that is in the long run agents play a pure strategy equilibrium with some agents permanently in the market and some permanently out we conduct experiments with a larger number of repetitions than in previous work in order to test this prediction we find that when subjects are given minimal information only after close to 100 periods do subjects begin to approach equilibrium in contrast with full information subjects learn to play a pure strategy equilibrium relatively quickly however the information which permits rapid convergence revelation of the individual play of all opponents

the impact of monetary policy announcements on the stock price of large european banks during the financial crisis abstract since 2007 the european central bank responded decisively to the challenges posed by the global financial crisis reducing key policy interest rates to unprecedented low levels and intervening with non standard policy measures i e monetary easing and liquidity provision this paper aims to assess the impact of ecb monetary policy announcements on the stock price of large european banks as a first step an event study is conducted in order to measure cumulated abnormal returns cars around the announcements over june 2007 june 2013 the second step is a regression analysis aimed at identifying the determinants of cars results show that banks were more sensitive to non conventional measures than to interest rate decisions and that the same type of intervention may have a different impact depending on the stage of the crisis in addition banks with weaker balance sheets and operating with high risk were more sensitive to monetary policy interventions

the effect interruptions in work experience have on wages individuals who interrupt their employment are generally expected to pay a price in the workplace 15 most researchers acknowledge that wages rise more rapidly with time spent in paid employment than with time spent in other noneducational activities thus the wages received by individuals reentering employment are expected to be below those obtained by similar individuals with continuous work records how far below is still a matter of debate one important line of research has focused upon the difference between pre interruption and post interruption wages specifically do real wages rise fall or remain unchanged during periods of nonemployment two findings stand out from past research first a wide variety of studies employing a wide variety of data sets have found that wages fall during periods of nonemployment the estimated decline ranges from 0 6 to over 5 annually but averages around 2 second this estimated depreciation rate is higher when the sample under investigation contains a greater proportion of recent reentrants thus there is a pattern to the estimates the purpose of this study is to investigate the observed sensitivity to sample composition in the past such sample sensitivity has been attributed to a rapid depreciation followed by a rebound in wages that over time partially offsets the initial decline if true the depreciation rate will be underestimated especially if the data include few recent reentrants two alternative hypotheses are tested in this study the first relies upon certain assumptions regarding part time employment patterns and wages if part time workers are paid less than full time workers and if part time employment is more common following reentry because it is used as a bridge to full time employment then estimates of the depreciation rate will be biased upward particularly when obtained from samples of recent reentrants if information on hours worked is ignored there may in fact be no depreciation at all results indicate that while part time workers are paid less than full time workers estimates

egalitarianism and efficiency in repeated symmetric games abstract we analyze the symmetric equilibria of repeated symmetric games where there is a conflict of interests over equilibria the battle of the sexes or the hawk dove game are key examples if one restricts attention to symmetric equilibria efficient equilibria must be egalitarian for finitely repeated games and generic discount factors there is a unique outcome path which ensures efficiency within the class of symmetric equilibria this is also true for the infinitely repeated games if the players are sufficiently impatient journal of economic literature classification numbers c72 c73

market set up in advance of federal reserve policy rate decisions textabstractthis paper considers the uncertainty associated with upcoming federal open market committee fomc announcements and the extent to which participants in the fed funds futures market prepare for such announcements before they actually occur we demonstrate that markets set up well in advance of known announcement days going back as far as six months prior to an fomc meeting as a result there is often less variation in fed funds futures prices in the period immediately preceding an fomc announcement despite greater volume of activity as the market has already incorpo rated anticipated signals we find that macro announcements and central bank officials speeches and congressional testimony are of comparable importance in addition while macro announcements have stronger effects when they are released during the fed s blackout period congressional testimony is more important when it coincides with days when important macro variables are released

monetary policy surprises and interest rates evidence from the fed funds futures market abstract this paper estimates the impact of monetary policy actions on bill note and bond yields using data from the futures market for federal funds to separate changes in the target funds rate into anticipated and unanticipated components interest rates response to anticipated target rate changes is small while their response to unanticipated changes is large and highly significant these responses are generally consistent with the expectations hypothesis of the term structure surprise target rate changes have little effect on expectations of future actions however which helps to explain the lack of empirical support for the expectations hypothesis at the short end of the yield curve

macroeconomic cycles and the stock market s reaction to monetary policy abstract this paper examines cyclical variation in the effect of fed policy on the stock market we find a much stronger response of stock returns to unexpected changes in the federal funds target rate in recession and in tight credit market conditions using firm level data we also show that firms that face financial constraints are more affected by monetary shocks in tight credit conditions than the relatively unconstrained firms overall the results are consistent with the credit channel of monetary policy transmission

the impact of economic news on bond prices evidence from the mts platform although there is an extensive literature on the impact of macroeconomic announcements on asset prices the bond market has received less attention than the foreign exchange and equity markets even less if we consider the european market this paper uses high frequency intra day data over a three year period to investigate the impact of regularly scheduled macroeconomic news and monetary policy announcements on the returns of the italian government bond market the largest one in the euro zone with respect to the previous papers we use a much broader set of announcements sixty eight and a relatively novel dataset mts we find that twenty five news have a significant impact on bond returns and that almost all announcements are incorporated into prices within twenty minutes from the release

intraday jumps and us macroeconomic news announcements this paper applies recent non parametric intraday jump detection procedures to investigate the presence and importance of intraday jumps in us futures markets more importantly the paper investigates the extent to which statistically significant intraday jumps are associated with us macroeconomic news announcements jumps are prevalent large and contribute heavily to total daily price variation approximately one third of jumps correspond to us macroeconomic news announcements with pure announcement effects causing large increases in the absolute sizes of jumps and the informational surprise of the announcement explaining large proportions of the jumps the statistical and economic significance of news related jumps is confirmed by results that show higher volatility persistence predictability of lower frequency returns larger effects on microstructure variables jump clustering and co jumps from these jumps versus non news related jumps although there are some interesting variations across asset classes

monetary policy implementation and the federal funds rate this paper investigates how the implementation of monetary policy affects the dynamics and the volatility of the federal funds rate since the early 1980s the most important changes in the fed s conduct of monetary policy refer to the role of the federal funds rate target and the reserve requirement system we show that the improved communication and transparency regarding the federal funds rate target has significantly increased the fed s influence on the federal funds rate since 1994 by contrast the declining role of required reserves in the u s has contributed to higher federal funds rate volatility our results suggest that the planned introduction of remunerated reserves will further enhance the controllability of the federal funds rate

the opportunity for conspiracy in restraint of trade an experimental study a study is a limited exploration into the relationship between the opportunity for conspiracy in restraint of trade and the resulting market performance laboratory experimental methods are applied to separate competing theories the competitive model predicts well relative to cartel models nevertheless when measurements are taken relative to the performance of markets where conspiracies are not possible the effects of attempted conspiracies can be determined

real time tacit bargaining payoff focality and coordination complexity experimental evidence we conduct a bargaining experiment where interaction is tacit and payoffs are earned and cumulated in real time we test hypotheses about the interaction between the focal properties of payoffs and the complexity of coordinating on an intertemporal behavior that achieves them the general finding is that when a payoff focal outcome requires a complicated coordination scheme bargainers tend to settle on a simpler and sometimes inefficient behavior

the high frequency asymmetric response of stock returns to monetary policy for high oil price events abstract this paper investigates whether a high oil price event that worsens the quality of a firm s balance sheet in turn provides an additional transmission channel to the stock market which then affects stock returns we examine the asymmetric impacts of monetary shocks on stock returns across high oil price events and non high oil price events over the period from 1995 to 2008 we ask how these impacts respond to the relative ability of firms to obtain external finance our findings suggest that more energy intensive industries and durable goods industries react more significantly to monetary shocks based on high oil price events than on those based on non high oil price events by controlling for the capacity for external finance the intraday windows reveal that a monetary surprise for the high oil price events has a bigger impact on stock returns than for the non high oil price events firms with financing constraints find that the adverse impact of a surprise monetary policy action on high oil price events is amplified in the medium profitability category while the impact of a surprise monetary policy action on non high oil price events is amplified in the lowest profitability category

gender differences in displacement cost evidence and implications this paper uses a unique and newly available data set on displaced workers to estimate differences in the wage costs of displacement between women and men while predisplacement wages rise at about the same rate with tenure for women as men in this data set women lose more from displacement than men and the magnitude of this loss increases with tenure overall we interpret our results as not supportive of the specific capital hypothesis that women accumulate less firmspecific human capital than men and we suggest that future attempts to explain our result focus on gender differences in the process of search for a new job

a structural explanation of recent changes in life cycle labor supply and fertility behavior of married women in the united states abstract this study documents and explains important changes in the life cycle labor supply and fertility behavior of married women in the united states from the 1950s to more recent cohorts the younger cohorts relative to the 1950s supply more labor at earlier stages of the life cycle delay motherhood to later stages without reducing the fertility rate and upon childbearing show a greater tendency to stay out of the labor force in a life cycle model for married couples in which a household makes decisions on fertility as well as labor supply consumption and savings all the behavioral changes are jointly and quantitatively explained by a combination of changes in various labor supply fertility determinants with the increased returns penalties to work non work experience being the dominant contributor the results survive a series of robustness tests including endogenizing education choice and assortative marriage

does the jack of all trades hold the winning hand comparing the role of specialized versus general skills in the returns to an agricultural degree this paper examines the roles of specialized versus general skills in explaining variation in the returns to an agriculture degree among graduates working both inside and outside the agricultural industry the focus on returns by sector of employment is motivated by our finding that most agricultural graduates are employed in non agricultural jobs in that study a sample of alumni graduating from a large midwestern public university between 1982 and 2006 shows that alumni with majors more specialized in agriculture earned a premium from working in the agriculture industry but this advantage has diminished over time agricultural graduates with more general training earn more outside than inside agriculture higher ability graduates in more industry focused curricula tend to sort into the agricultural industry while higher ability graduates in broader curricula tend to choose jobs outside of agriculture all graduates are more likely to accept agricultural employment when the farm economy is strong but agricultural graduates who enter agricultural jobs when the farm economy is weak suffer lifetime earnings reductions these findings suggest that greater levels of specialization may limit a graduate s ability to adjust to changing economic circumstances agriculture degree programs could benefit from curriculum innovations that focus on developing more generalized skills

communication in intergroup conflicts abstract numerous studies suggest that communication may be a universal means to mitigate collective action problems in this study we challenge this view and show that the communication structure crucially determines whether communication mitigates or intensifies rent seeking for pure public goods we observe the effect of different communication structures in the context of a finitely repeated intergroup contest and demonstrate that conflict expenditures are significantly higher if communication is restricted to one s own group as compared to a situation with no communication however expenditures are significantly lower if open communication within one s own group and between rivaling groups is allowed we show that under open communication intergroup conflicts are avoided by groups taking turns in winning the contest our results do not only qualify the role of communication for collective action but may also provide insights on how to mitigate the destructive nature of intergroup conflict and group rent seeking

long memory in volatility and trading volume abstract we use fractionally integrated time series models to investigate the joint dynamics of equity trading volume and volatility bollerslev and jubinski 1999 show that volume and volatility have a similar degree of fractional integration and they argue that this evidence supports a long run view of the mixture of distributions hypothesis we examine this issue using more precise volatility estimates obtained using high frequency returns i e realized volatilities our results indicate that volume and volatility both display long memory but we can reject the hypothesis that the two series share a common order of fractional integration for a fifth of the firms in our sample moreover we find a strong correlation between the innovations to volume and volatility which suggests that trading volume can be used to obtain more precise estimates of daily volatility for cases in which high frequency returns are unavailable

the high frequency response of exchange rates to monetary policy actions and statements abstract this paper investigates the impact of us monetary policy on the level and volatility of exchange rates using an event study with intraday data for five currencies the us dollar exchange rate versus the euro the canadian dollar the british pound the swiss franc and the japanese yen i construct two indicators of news about monetary policy stemming separately from policy decisions and from balance of risk statements estimation results show that both policy decisions and communication have economically large and highly significant effects on the exchange rates with the surprise component of statements accounting for most of the explainable variation in exchange rate returns in response to monetary policy this paper also shows that exchange rates tend to absorb fomc monetary surprises within 30 40 min from the announcement release

monetary policy effectiveness and stock market cycles in asean 5 this article examines the asymmetric effects of monetary policy on real output in bull and bear phases of stock market in five asean economies malaysia singapore indonesia the philippines and thailand using the recently developed pooled mean group pmg technique stock market cycles are identified by employing markov switching models and the rule based nonparametric approach estimating the models using monthly data from 1991 1 to 2011 12 the results show that monetary policy measured by short term interest rate has a negative and statistically significant long run effect on real output in bull and bear market periods while the effects are stronger in bear periods than bulls in the short run there is no statistically significant relationship between monetary policy and real output these results are consistent with finance constraints capital market imperfection models that predict that monetary policy is more effective during bear periods than bulls

sources of bias in women s wage equations results using sibling data we use data on sisters to jointly address heterogeneity bias and endogeneity bias in estimates of wage equations for women this analysis yields evidence of biases in ols estimates of wage equations for white and black women some of which are detected only when the two sources of bias are addressed simultaneously for both white and black women there is evidence of upward bias in the estimated returns to schooling bias corrected estimates of the effect of marriage on wages for white women suggest a positive marriage premium we also use the sibling data to identify our models and test a number of other commonly used identifying assumptions as overidentifying restrictions