on the determinants of direct foreign investment evidence from east and southeast asia abstract a model of derived demand for foreign capital by a multiple product monopolist is estimated for seven asian countries direct foreign investment dfi inflows are estimated to be less elastic with respect to the costs of capital including taxes than to wages and to be more elastic with respect to aggregate demand in export markets than domestic demand the output deterrent effect of higher wages is estimated to outweigh any substitution toward greater capital intensity the estimates also suggest that dfi rises with greater costs within the investors home countries no similar effect occurs with respect to costs in rival host countries and concerns for political stability have overlain economic determinants

privatisation around the world evidence from panel data this paper presents new evidence about privatisation processes and their determinants from a panel of 34 countries over the 1977 99 period the empirical analysis shows that privatisation takes place typically in wealthy and democratic countries endowed with deep and liquid stock markets and is affected by the governing political majority and public sector budget constraints but the extent of privatisation in terms of revenues and stakes sold appears more limited in civil law countries where shareholders are poorly protected banks powerful and capital markets less developed

why are developing countries privatization this article tests alternative hypotheses about why developing countries are pursuing privatization a policy that gained considerable popularity in the 1980s univariate and multivariate analysis indicate that privatization was more likely to be pursued by countries with high budget deficits high foreign debt and high dependence on international agencies like the world bank and the imf in regions such as latin america and asia the trend was also more likely in countries a that seemed to have overused state enterprises in the past and b those in which the private sector had grown faster than average and was thus more ready to assume tasks once assigned to state enterprises in africa however the policy may have been imposed by external agencies on countries that were not necessarily ripe for privatization for multinational firms the international opportunities created by privatization are likely to be greater in the 1990s than in the 1980s

privatization and globalization an empirical analysis abstract this paper examines the link between globalization measured by foreign direct investment fdi and foreign portfolio investment fpi and privatization of state owned enterprises in a multi country sample that focuses on developing countries we hypothesize that privatization has an effect on fdi fpi as the process of fostering private sector participation is often accompanied by liberalization reforms and by allocations of substantial shares of newly privatized firms to foreign investors similarly we expect fdi fpi to foster privatization efforts as new capital inflows technology and managerial skills that accompany fdi fpi make the environment more prone to competition providing governments with incentives to privatize inefficient firms that need to be turned around this relation is assessed in two ways first in a dynamic panel using a generalized method of moments approach and second through panel causality tests we find a bi directional positive relation between privatization proceeds and globalization particularly in the case of fdi

models of currency crises with self fulfilling features the discomfort a government suffers from speculation against its currency determines the strategic incentives of speculators and the scope for multiple currency market equilibria after describing an illustrative model in which high unemployment may cause an exchange rate crisis with self fulfilling features the paper reviews some other self reinforcing mechanisms recent econometric evidence seems consistent with the practical importance of these mechanisms

human capital and fdi inflows to developing countries new empirical evidence abstract despite the dramatic increase in total foreign direct investment fdi flows to developing countries in the last few years the bulk of the inflows has been directed to only a limited number of countries it has been argued that developing countries might enhance their attractiveness as locations for fdi by pursuing policies that raise the level of local skills and build up human resource capabilities nevertheless the empirical evidence in the literature in support of this recommendation for a large sample of developing countries is scant this paper evaluates this argument in the light of the evolution in the structural characteristics of fdi and empirically tests the hypothesis that the level of human capital in host countries may affect the geographical distribution of fdi the empirical findings are a human capital is a statistically significant determinant of fdi inflows b human capital is one of the most important determinants and c its importance has become increasingly greater through time

the determinants of cross border equity flows abstract we explore a new panel data set on bilateral gross cross border equity flows between 14 countries 1989 1996 we show that a gravity model explains international transactions in financial assets at least as well as goods trade transactions gross transaction flows depend on market size in source and destination country as well as trading costs in which both information and the transaction technology play a role distance proxies some information costs and other variables explicitly represent information transmission an information asymmetry between domestic and foreign investors and the efficiency of transactions the geography of information is the main determinant of the pattern of international transactions while there is weak support in our data for the diversification motive once we control for the informational friction we broaden the scope of our results by presenting some evidence linking the results on equity transactions to equity holdings

wages and foreign ownership a comparative study of mexico venezuela and the united states abstract this paper explores the relationship between wages and foreign investment in mexico venezuela and the united states despite very different economic conditions and levels of development we find one fact that is robust across all three countries higher levels of foreign investment are associated with higher wages however in mexico and venezuela foreign investment is associated with higher wages only for foreign owned firms there is no evidence of wage spillovers leading to higher wages for domestic firms the lack of spillovers in mexico and venezuela is consistent with significant wage differentials between foreign and domestic enterprises in the united states where the evidence suggests some wage spillovers from foreign to domestic enterprises wage differentials are smaller

international overborrowing a decomposition of credit and currency risks summary the severity of the financial crises enveloping the tiger economies of southeast asia in 1997 came as a surprise to many observers this paper uses a simple fisherian model of the overborrowing syndrome to compare the asian crises of 1997 with earlier overborrowing episodes in mexico and chile while important similarities exist the crises in southeast asia have been exacerbated by the unhedged foreign exchange positions of asian banks these open currency positions not only imposed significant additional losses on the banks following devaluation they also magnified the scale of overborrowing during the cycle s initial boom phase failure to limit the exposure of banks to foreign exchange risk therefore increased the magnitude of the boom bust overborrowing cycle both ex ante and ex post the paper highlights the importance of effective regulation and supervision of capital markets with a focus on limiting the speculative currency positions of banks especially those that form the core of the domestic payments system and therefore enjoy a possibly implicit public guarantee improving the institutional infrastructure of financial supervision is the only effective way of mitigating the macroeconomic costs of overborrowing

political regimes and economic growth arguments that relate regimes to growth focus on property rights pressures for immediate consumption and the autonomy of dictators while everyone seems to agree that secure property rights foster growth it is controversial whether democracies or dictatorships better secure these rights the main mechanism by which democracy is thought to hinder growth is pressure for immediate consumption which reduces investment only states that are institutionally insulated from such pressures can resist them and democratic states are not the main argument against dictatorships is that authoritarian rulers have no interest in maximizing total output these views are summarized in turn

the effect of implicit contracts on the movement of wages over the business cycle evidence from micro data in this paper we address the question of whether wages are affected by labor market conditions in a manner more consistent with a contract approach than with a standard spot market model from a simple implicit contract model we derive implications about the links between wages and past labor market conditions using individual data from the current population survey and the panel study of income dynamics we find that an implicit contract model with costless mobility describes these links better than either a simple spot market model or an implicit contract model with costly mobility

the underpinnings of country risk assessment abstract this paper surveys the history and current status of country risk assessment the motivation is to understand why it is that country risk assessors have such a poor track record in anticipating the onset of financial crises the development of the field reflects changes in the composition of international capital flows these changes have confounded a definition of country risk especially if a definition is centered on a particular event it is then argued that the field has reached an impasse and this impasse is related to the methods of abstraction and the current crisis of vision within the science of economics this crisis of vision as it pertains to theories of financial crises has led to increased reliance on quantitative methods in the field of country risk the paper concludes by proposing a new direction for the field the first step towards which is to recognize that the object of country risk assessment is not to monitor for a particular event or symptom of financial crisis but rather to monitor for a particular state of the economy

the effects of implicit contracts on wages evidence from the japanese labor market abstract this paper tests whether wages in japan s labor market are determined by current or past labor market conditions the empirical results are consistent with a model suggesting that labor market mobility may be limited and costly in japan for men

privatization political risk and stock market development in emerging economies this paper investigates whether privatization in emerging economies has a significant indirect effect on local stock market development through the resolution of political risk we argue that a sustained privatization program represents a major political test that gradually resolves uncertainty over political commitment to a market oriented policy as well as to regulatory and private property rights we present evidence suggesting that progress in privatization is indeed correlated with improvements in perceived political risk our analysis further shows that changes in political risk in general tend to have a strong effect on local stock market development and excess returns in emerging economies we conclude that the resolution of political risk resulting from successful privatization has been an important source for the rapid growth of stock markets in emerging economies

reversal of fortunes democratic institutions and foreign direct investment inflows to developing countries does increased democracy promote or jeopardize foreign direct investment fdi inflows to less developed countries we argue that democratic institutions have conflicting effects on fdi inflows on the one hand democratic institutions hinder fdi inflows by limiting the oligopolistic or monopolistic behaviors of multinational enterprises facilitating indigenous businesses pursuit of protection from foreign capital and constraining host governments ability to offer generous financial and fiscal incentives to foreign investors on the other hand democratic institutions promote fdi inflows because they tend to ensure more credible property rights protection reducing risks and transaction costs for foreign investors hence the net effect of democracy on fdi inflows is contingent on the relative strength of these two competing forces our argument reconciles conflicting theoretical expectations in the existing literature empirical analyses of fifty three developing countries from 1982 to 1995 substantiate our claims we find that both property rights protection and democracy related property rights protection encourage fdi inflows after controlling for their positive effect through property rights protection democratic institutions reduce fdi inflows these results are robust against alternative model specifications statistical estimators and variable measurements

wages implicit contracts and the business cyle evidence from canadian micro data evidence of macroeconomic conditions impacting the earnings of men in canada in a manner consistent with an implicit contracting framework is found using data from eleven cross sectional surveys spanning the years 1981 1992 the estimates are similar to those found by beaudry and dinardo 1991 using u s data their analysis is extended to incestigate whether the effects of macroeconomic conditions differ by age evidence is found that the wages of young men and men near retirement are most sensitive to changes in the macroeconomic conditions over their job tenure this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

investor protection and corporate governance recent research has documented large differences among countries in ownership concentration in publicly traded firms in the breadth and depth of capital markets in dividend policies and in the access of firms to external finance a common element to the explanations of these differences is how well investors both shareholders and creditors are protected by law from expropriation by the managers and controlling shareholders of firms we describe the differences in laws and the effectiveness of their enforcement across countries discuss the possible origins of these differences summarize their consequences and assess potential strategies of corporate governance reform we argue that the legal approach is a more fruitful way to understand corporate governance and its reform than the conventional distinction between bank centered and market centered financial systems

host country reforms and fdi inflows how much difference do they make summary this study examines the effects of various policies on foreign direct investment fdi flows from the perspective of the eclectic theory of international investment and hence the advantages of foreign ownership host country location and internationalization host country policies can influence fdi flows primarily through their influence on the advantages of location in the host country pooled cross section and time series data for 49 less developed countries ldcs over 1970 95 are used to examine the effects of several different types of policy institutional variables including corporate tax rates tariff rates the degree of openness to international capital flows exchange rate distortions contract enforcement nationalization risk bureaucratic delay and corruption a multivariate analysis of the effects on fdi flows of each type of policy with and without controls for other relevant determinants is conducted two different sources of fdi data are employed as well as two different measures of capital controls although there are methodological problems in estimation and especially collinearity problems and relatively severe availability constraints for some of the relevant measures the results demonstrate the relevance and importance for fdi flows of many of the policy institutional variables under study they also indicate that the results from panel methods yield results that differ rather significantly from those obtained from pure cross section analysis because of complementarity between the various elements of a healthy investment climate the effects of some policy reforms estimated from models which do not control for changes in other policies may overstate the effectiveness of individual policy reforms

the financial and operating performance of privatized firms during the 1990s this study compares the pre and postprivatization financial and operating performance of 85 companies from 28 industrialized countries that were privatized through public share offerings for the period from 1990 through 1996 we document significant increases in profitability output operating efficiency and dividend payments and significant decreases in leverage ratios for our full sample of firms after privatization and for most subsamples examined capital expenditures increase significantly in absolute terms but not relative to sales employment declines but insignificantly combined with results from two previous directly comparable studies these findings strongly suggest that privatization yields significant performance improvements during the past two decades the privatization of state owned enterprises has moved from being a radical almost desperate policy initiative of the thatcher government in britain to being an accepted economic policy for governments of all ideological stripes according to gibbon 1998 860 billion has been raised by governments worldwide through privatizations with the bulk of this total coming since 1987 and at least one commentator roche 1996 predicts that no less than 6 trillion will be raised through privatizations over the next two decades in 1997 alone sales of public enterprises totaled a record 161 billion worldwide with more than 110 billion of the total coming during the second half of the year and 1998 s total of almost 140 billion indicates that the pace shows no sign of slackening as we approach a new millennium

the pecking order of cross border investment abstract is there a pecking order of cross border investment in that countries become financially integrated through some types of investment rather than others using a novel database of bilateral capital stocks for all types of investment fdi portfolio equity securities debt securities as well as loans for a broad set of 77 countries we show that such a pecking order indeed exists the paper focuses on two key determinants of this pecking order information frictions and the quality of host country institutions overall we find that in particular fdi and to some extent also loans are substantially more sensitive to information frictions than investment in portfolio equity and debt securities we also show that the share as well as the size of fdi that a country receive are largely insensitive to institutional factors in host countries while portfolio investment is by far the most sensitive to the quality of institutions this provides new evidence in favor of some hypotheses but contradicts others put forward in the literature on trade in financial assets

fiscal incentives and direct foreign investment in less developed countries this study found no support for the belief by the governments of most less developed countries ldcs that the provision of fiscal incentives is necessary to attract direct foreign investment and that the greater the generosity of these incentive programmes the greater would be the level of such investment what mattered were the presence of natural resources and a proven record of economic performance the provision of incentives could not compensate for the absence of either of these two factors the study is a cross sectional one of 27 ldcs for the period 1965 73

the performance of privatized firms in the czech republic abstract with the growing importance of privatizations as a part of government policy most empirical studies of these privatizations conclude that firm performance immediately improves following privatization privatization has been the most important part of the transition from the centrally planned economies of central and eastern europe and has a larger impact on those economies than privatizations in other countries however few studies have looked at the performance of firms following mass privatization this study uses 453 separate firms 101 firms privatized in both waves for a total of 554 observations in the first and second waves of czech voucher privatization using methodology from previous studies we find that while the overall effects from privatization are positive the effects vary by privatization wave size and industry firms privatized in the first wave performed worse decline in performance following privatization than firms privatized in the second wave we also fail to find ownership concentration or debt as an important factor in restructuring the firm i believe that the results are consistent with two hypotheses first economic and political structure surrounding the privatization waves plays an important part in the success of privatization stable environments both political and economic help privatized firms restructure and improve operating performance as well as attract foreign investors and capital even in less developed countries but in transitional economies undergoing mass privatization in rapidly changing and developing economic and political environments hinder firms from restructuring and improving performance following privatization results are also consistent with the hypothesis that firms with a longer preparation period prior to privatization an implicit seasoning improve performance following privatization

the catalytic effect of lending by the international financial institutions for many less developed countries ldcs and countries in transition cits external financing is frequently an effective constraint on economic growth and development capital inflows may be used to overcome shortages of domestic saving thereby permitting higher levels of investment as well as shortages of foreign exchange thereby permitting larger quantities of imports

an analysis and critique of the bis proposal on capital adequacy and ratings abstract this paper examines two specific aspects of stage 1 of the bank for international settlement s bis s proposed reforms to the 8 risk based capital ratio we argue that relying on traditional agency ratings could produce cyclically lagging rather leading capital requirements resulting in an enhanced rather than reduced degree of instability in the banking and financial system despite this possible shortcoming we believe that sensible risk based weighting of capital requirements is a step in the right direction the current risk based bucketing proposal which is tied to external agency ratings or possibly to internal bank ratings however lacks a sufficient degree of granularity in particular lumping a and bbb investment grade corporate borrowers together with bb and b below investment grade borrowers severely misprices risk within that bucket and calls at a minimum for that bucket to be split into two we examine the default loss experience on corporate bonds for the period 1981 1999 and propose a revised weighting system which more closely resembles the actual loss experience on credit assets

a new database on human capital stock in developing and industrial countries sources methodology and results abstract the paper describes the techniques and data adopted for the construction of a new series of estimates of the stock of education in 85 countries over 28 years 1960 1987 the series are built from enrollment data using the perpetual inventory method adjusted for mortality estimates are corrected for grade repetition among school goers and country specific drop out rates for primary and secondary students enrollment data series used start as far back as 1930 for most countries and even earlier for others this reduces the need for backward extrapolation of enrollments to provide the initial estimates of the investment inventory

a theory of privatisation public enterprises around the world have proved to be highly inefficient primarily because they pursue strategies such as excess employment that satisfy the political objectives of politicians who control them privatization of public enterprises can raise the cost to politicians of influencing them since subsidies to private firms necessary to force them to remain inefficient are politically harder to sustain than wasted profits of the state firms in this way privatization leads to efficient restructuring of firms moreover privatization is more effective when combined with a tight monetary policy and when the new owners of firms are profit maximizing investors rather than their employees or even managers copyright 1996 by royal economic society

rational and self fulfilling balance of payments crises speculative attacks on a pegged exchange rate must sometimes occur ifasset price paths are to be free of abnormal profit opportunities suchattacks are fully rational as they reflect the market s response to aregime breakdown that is inevitable the authors shows that under someexpectations about policy balance of payments crises can also be purely self fulfilling events in such cases even a permanently viableregime may collapse and the economy will possess multiple equilibriacorresponding to different subjective assessments of the probability ofa crisis the behavior of the domestic interest rate will naturally reflect the possibility of a speculative attack copyright 1986 by american economic association

are credit ratings procyclical abstract this paper studies the influence of the state of the business cycle on credit ratings in particular we assess whether rating agencies are excessively procyclical in their assignment of ratings our analysis is based on a model of ratings determination that takes into account factors that measure the business and financial risks of firms in addition to indicators of macroeconomic conditions utilizing annual data on all us firms rated by standard poor s we find that ratings do not generally exhibit excess sensitivity to the business cycle in addition we document that previously reported findings of a secular tightening of ratings standards are not robust to a more complete accounting of systematic changes to measures of risk

the effect of implicit contracts on the movement of wages over the business cycle evidence from the national longitudinal surveys a 1991 study by paul beaudry and john dinardo found evidence of internal labor markets that augment incumbent workers wages when the external labor market is tight when unemployment is low and shield their wages when it is slack current wages they found depend on the tightest labor market conditions observed since a worker was hired not current labor market tightness or labor market tightness at the time of hiring this paper replicates and extends that research using data from six cohorts of the national longitudinal surveys that together span more than three decades as well as an estimation framework more robust than that in the original study the author finds strong support for beaudry and dinardo s key prediction supplementary regressions confirm other implications of the theory as well recently at least the effect of implicit contracting on wages has been similar for men and women

the volatility of offshore investment abstract offshore investment often bears the image of footloose industry with little to hinder movement to the most favorable environment an effort to describe this particular segment of u s direct investment supports some elements of the colorful anecdotal portrait painted by critics in the third world semiconductor assemblers are moderately sensitive to wage rates and adjust quite rapidly in maintaining what they perceive as a diversified portfolio of risky ldc production locations on the other hand this reaction is small enough to guarantee that modest increases in wages will not send all investment fleeing from an export platform new methods of modelling direct foreign investment when risk diversification is important in explaining industrial location decisions are introduced in this paper

the long run creditworthiness of developing countries theory and practice this paper analyzes the determinants of developing country long run creditworthiness focusing on the process of capital accumulation relative to external debt creditworthiness depends on the actual capital stock compared with a critical level representing the gross wealth just sufficient to ensure that interest payments to foreigners never exhaust national output given expected gross inflows and existing outstanding debt hence the probability of rescheduling is linked to debt service capital net inflows capital investment rates and income levels the empirical results based on a probit analysis of historical rescheduling incidents are quite robust and supportive of the theoretical framework

governance infrastructure and us foreign direct investment this paper examines the statistical importance of governance infrastructure as a determinant of us foreign direct investment fdi in broad terms governance infrastructure represents attributes of legislation regulation and legal systems that condition freedom of transacting security of property rights and transparency of government and legal processes our econometric analysis uses a two stage estimation procedure in the first stage the probability that a country is an fdi recipient is estimated the results indicate that countries that fail to achieve a minimum threshold of effective governance are unlikely to receive any us fdi countries that receive no us fdi are typically countries that do not promote free and transparent markets that have ineffective governments and that often have legal systems that are not rooted in english common law in the second stage the analysis is restricted to those countries that did receive fdi flows the estimated equations focus on the determinants of the amount of fdi received given that a country is a recipient of us fdi governance infrastructure including the nature of the legal system is an important determinant of the amount received

inequality and institutions abstract this paper presents theory and evidence on the relationship between inequality and institutional quality we exhibit a model in which the two may dynamically reinforce each other and set to test this relationship with a broad array of institutional measures the double causality between institutional strength and a more equal distribution of income is empirically established using dynamic panel and linear feedback analysis

international investment location decisions abstract in international location tournaments governments compete for foreign investment with tax and other short run incentives such tournaments can be won if agglomeration economies are sufficiently powerful to overcome investors desire to spread investments as a hedge against risk we focus on manufacturing investments by u s multinationals in the 1980s our econometric results suggest that agglomeration economies are indeed the dominant influence on investor calculations paradoxically short run incentives have limited apparent impact on location choice we conclude that high cost tournament play is unnecessary for countries with good infrastructure development specialized input suppliers and an expanding domestic market

privatization financial development property rights and growth abstract this study analyzes how prevailing institutional arrangements i e property rights contracting rights political institutions and corporate governance practices affect privatized firms performance capital markets development and economic growth most of the studies surveyed show that privatization enhances privatized firms performance efficiency and profitability which percolates to economic growth privatized firms performed better in countries with better regulatory and legal frameworks partial privatization may be beneficial in countries with weak institutions namely the french civil law countries the stronger the economic and the governing institutions the easier it is for privatized firms to thrive and contribute to economic growth overall privatization allows firms to achieve improved efficiency while driving the development of the financial sector

vertical multinationals and host country characteristics abstract we inquire into the question of what country characteristics particularly market size and labor force composition attract inward investment this approach is motivated by the empirical observation that the poorest countries attract a far smaller share of world direct investment than their share of income small markets receive less investment per capita than larger ones we develop a model that generates both stylized facts in equilibrium suggesting the existence of a development trap for small skilled labor scarce countries