government old age support and labor supply evidence from the old age assistance program many major government programs transfer resources to older people and implicitly or explicitly tax their labor in this paper we shed new light on the labor supply and welfare effects of such programs by investigating the old age assistance program oaa a means tested and state administered pension program created by the social security act of 1935 using newly available census data on the entire us population in 1940 we exploit the large differences in oaa programs across states to estimate the labor supply effects of oaa our estimates imply that oaa reduced the labor force participation rate among men aged 65 74 by 5 8 percentage points nearly half of its 1930 40 decline however both reduced form evidence and an estimated structural model of labor supply imply that the welfare cost to recipients of the high tax rates implicit in oaa s earnings test were small the evidence also suggests that social security could account for at least half of the large decline in late life work from 1940 to 1960

capital taxation and accumulation in a life cycle growth model almost all of the serious economic work on savings decisions within the past decade has relied on some variant of the life cycle hypothesis in which savings arise out of individual choices of an optimum lifetime consumption path this paper reexamines the incidence and welfare consequences of capital income taxes within a realistic life cycle model the results suggest that the elimination of capital income taxation would have very substantial economic effects for example a complete shift to consumption taxation might raise steady state output by as much as 18 percent and consumption by 16 percent the long run welfare gain from such a shift would for plausible parameter values exceed 150 billion annually stated somewhat differently shifting to consumption taxation would raise the lifetime utility of the representative consumer by the equivalent of about six years income in the new steady state these estimates dwarf estimates of the static welfare cost of taxation and significantly exceed even extreme previous estimates of the dynamic loss this study departs from earlier analyses of the effects of taxes on capital income in several respects probably the most important difference between this treatment and most preceding ones lies in the assumptions about the interest elasticity of saving it is shown below that the common two period formulation of saving decisions yields quite misleading results a more realistic model of life cycle savings demonstrates that for a wide variety of plausible parameter values savings are very interest elastic this implies that shifting away from capital income taxation would significantly increase capital formation making possible long run increases in consumption many studies of the welfare effects of capital income taxation have ignored the general equilibrium effects of increased capital formation in an economy with life cycle savings there is no presumption that the undistorted growth path corresponds to any sort of social optimum as peter diamond has shown life cycle savings can lead to a steady state capital intensity either greater or less than the golden rule level more generally it is clear that there is no reason to believe that a life cycle economy will maximize any particular intertemporal social welfare function a fundamental tenet of welfare evaluation is that preexisting distortions must be considered in evaluating the consequences of tax changes the results presented in this paper take explicit account of the nonoptimal character of the no tax steady state this explains in large part why such a sizeable welfare effect of capital taxes is found in an economy far from the golden rule level of capital intensity there are substantial gains in steady state consumption achievable through increased capital formation section i of the paper examines the aggregate savings function in a continuous time life cycle framework the second section clarifies the differences between wage and consumption taxes an aggregate production function is added to complete the model in the third section the effects of changes in capital taxes on both steady state incidence and welfare are considered within a general equilibrium framework the final section of the paper discusses some implications of the results and suggests areas which appear to warrant further study assistant professor of economics massachusetts institute of technology and research analyst national bureau of economic research i am grateful to alan auerbach martin feldstein laurence kotlikoff to the participants in the nber workshop on business taxation and to the harvard public finance seminar for useful discussions james poterba and james buchal performed the numerical calculations

on the price of recreation goods as a determinant of male labor supply we examine whether and how variations in the price of recreation goods influence men s allocation of market work for the united states individual level data are combined with metropolitan area level price indices to estimate the male elasticity of intertemporal substitution of market work with respect to the price of recreation goods which is found around 0 16 and statistically significant the allocation of market work in response to changes in the price of recreation goods would create movements in the output of an economy moreover it could contribute toward explaining the emerging differences in work and leisure between the united states and europe

wealth accumulation over the life cycle and precautionary savings this article constructs and simulates a life cycle model of wealth accumulation and estimates the parameters of the utility function the rate of time preference and the coefficient of risk aversion by matching the simulated median wealth profiles with those observed in the panel study of income dynamics and in the survey of consumer finances the estimates imply a low degree of patience and a high degree of risk aversion the results are used to study the importance of precautionary savings in explaining wealth accumulation they imply that wealth accumulation is driven mostly by precautionary motives at the beginning of the life cycle whereas savings for retirement purposes become significant only closer to retirement

fungicide use under risk in swiss wheat production abstract the short run effects of fungicide application on economic risk and the effects of risk on fungicide use in swiss wheat production are empirically explored a quadratic production function model is developed with the help of the moment based approach marginal contributions of fungicides representing controlled inputs and of rain representing uncontrolled inputs to the variances of yield and revenue are analyzed it is not possible to show risk reducing effects of fungicides on yield or revenue at low rain quantities during the vegetation period fungicides have a statistically significant risk increasing effect on revenue increasing risk leads swiss wheat growers to use more fungicide this increase is statistically significant at higher levels of revenue for example when risk is doubled fungicide inputs are raised by 44 at the highest revenue quartile

requiem for the representative consumer aggregate implications of microeconomic consumption behavior macroeconomists pursuing microfoundations for aggregate consumption have generally adopted one of two approaches either to model microeconomic consumption behavior carefully and then to aggregate or to thoroughly understand the behavior of a representative consumer in general equilibrium then to introduce microeconomic risk and heterogeneity the broad conclusion from the bottom up approach has been that precautionary saving and microeconomic heterogeneity can profoundly change behavior stephen p zeldes 1989 angus s deaton 1991 christopher d carroll 1992 the broad conclusion from the top down approach has been that precautionary saving is of little importance in determining the aggregate capital stock s rao aiyagari 1994 per krusell and anthony a smith 1998 leading some economists to conclude that heterogeneity is unimportant for macroeconomic purposes this paper shows that while general equilibrium effects do imply that the aggregate magnitude of precautionary saving is modest nevertheless when a model with uninsurable idiosyncratic risk is modified so that it can match the key micro facts it produces behavior very different in important respects from that produced by the representative agent economy this leads to the conclusion that for many purposes the representative consumer model should be abandoned in favor of a model which matches key microeconomic facts this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

social security and the rise in health spending abstract in a quantitative model of social security with endogenous health i argue that social security increases the aggregate health spending of the economy because it redistributes resources to the elderly whose marginal propensity to spend on health is high i show by using computational experiments that the expansion of us social security can account for over a third of the dramatic rise in us health spending from 1950 to 2000 in addition social security has a spill over effect on medicare as social security increases health spending it also increases the payments from medicare thus raising its financial burden

social security and retirement across the oecd abstract employment to population ratios differ markedly across organization for economic cooperation and development oecd countries especially for people aged over 55 years in addition social security features differ markedly across the oecd particularly with respect to features such as generosity entitlement ages and implicit taxes on social security benefits this study postulates that differences in social security features explain many differences in employment to population ratios at older ages this conjecture is assessed quantitatively with a life cycle general equilibrium model of retirement at ages 60 64 years the correlation between the simulations of this study s model and observed data is 0 67 generosity and implicit taxes are key features to explain the cross country variation whereas entitlement age is not

the cyclical and secular behaviour of the labour input comparing efficiency units and hours worked summary a monthly labour input series designed to correct for the fact that all hours worked are not of the same quality is constructed and its properties compared with unadjusted hours worked this efficiency units series is constructed from bls data on hours worked and earnings by age and sex the cyclical fluctuations displayed by the efficiency units series are smaller on average than those displayed by hours worked although the difference is not large however the secular behaviour of the series is quite different hours worked per capita displays a significant positive trend while efficiency units per capita does not

the baby boom and baby bust what caused the baby boom and can it be explained within the context of the secular decline in fertility that has occurred over the last 200 years the hypothesis is that a the secular decline in fertility is due to the relentless rise in real wages that increased the opportunity cost of having children b the baby boom is explained by an atypical burst of technological progress in the household sector that occurred in the middle of the last century this lowered the cost of having children a model is developed in an attempt to account quantitatively for both the baby boom and bust

rational choice and rebellious collective action a basic problem for a rational choice theory of rebellious collective action is to explain why average citizens would participate in such behavior since they have nothing to gain they will receive benefits of successful rebellion in terms of public goods regardless of whether they take part or not but much to lose rebellious behavior may be quite costly according to the conventional private interest or by product theory the incentive to participate must come from the expectation of receiving selective benefits but since average citizens in a general case cannot expect substantial private material rewards the relevant selective benefits must be psychological in nature in contrast to the model of private interest theory a public goods model is proposed stipulating that the value of rebellion in terms of public goods can be a relevant incentive for participation using data from surveys conducted in new york city and hamburg west germany we investigate the relationship between participation in rebellious political behavior and measures of the incentives of public goods and private interest the results do not support predictions of the private interest model in regard to nonmaterial selective incentives hypotheses of the public goods model are supported

group utility in the micro motivation of collective action the case of membership in the aarp abstract the fundamental assumption of human rationality in neo classical economic analysis is the maximization of individual utility as economic analyses are being widely used in political science under the broad rubric of public choice one cannot escape the logical inconsistency between theory and reality arising from the free rider problem in the preference for collective goods recent literature argues that a way out of this dilemma is to recognize the existence of motivations other than self interest this paper demonstrates the need to enlarge the assumption of economic rationality by explicitly taking into account the factors of group utility with the help of survey data on the preference for membership in the american association of retired people aarp this study adds to the mounting empirical evidence for the fact that for a proper understanding of collective action the existence of a collective identity should be recognized

engines of liberation electricity was born at the dawn of the last century households were inundated with a flood of new consumer durables what was the impact of this consumer durable goods revolution it is argued here that the consumer goods revolution was conducive to liberating women from the home to analyse this hypothesis a beckerian model of household production is developed households must decide whether or not to adopt the new technologies and whether a married woman should work can such a model help to explain the rise in married female labour force participation that occurred in the last century yes the housewife of the future will be neither a slave to servants nor herself a drudge she will give less attention to the home because the home will need less she will be rather a domestic engineer than a domestic labourer with the greatest of all handmaidens electricity at her service this and other mechanical forces will so revolutionize the woman s world that a large portion of the aggregate of woman s energy will be conserved for use in broader more constructive fields thomas alva edison as interviewed in good housekeeping magazine lv no 4 october 1912 p 436

the effect of social security on labor supply a cohort analysis of the notch generation this article uses aggregate birth year calendar year level data derived from the current population survey cps to estimate the effect of social security wealth on the labor supply of older men in the 1970s and 1980s the analysis focuses on measuring the impact of the 1977 amendments to the social security act which created a substantial unanticipated reduction in social security wealth for individuals born after 1916 this differential in benefits has become known as the benefit notch results indicate that labor supply continued to decline for the notch babies who received lower social security benefits than earlier cohorts

can social security explain trends in labor force participation of older men in the united states after a long decline the labor force participation rate lfpr of older men in the united states leveled off in the 1980s and began to increase in the late 1990s we examine how changes in social security rules affected these trends we attribute only a small portion of the decline from the 1960s 80s to the increasing generosity of social security over this period increases in the full retirement age and the delayed retirement credit explain one quarter to one half of the recent increase in the lfpr increasing educational attainment and increasing lfpr of married women also contributed to the recent rise

trends in hours the u s from 1900 to 1950 abstract during the first half of the 20th century the length of the workweek in the u s declined and its distribution across wage deciles narrowed the hypothesis is twofold first technological progress through the rise in wages and the decreasing cost of recreation made it possible for the average u s worker to afford more time off from work second changes in the wage distribution explain the changes in the distribution of hours a general equilibrium model is built to explore whether such mechanisms can quantitatively account for the observations the model is calibrated to the u s economy in 1900 it predicts 82 of the observed decline in hours and most of the contraction in their dispersion the decline in the price of leisure goods accounts for 7 of the total decline in hours

joint risk preference technology estimation with a primal system applied studies of the firm in a risky environment have concentrated either on the firm s technology or on its risk preferences these models result in generally inconsistent and inefficient parameter estimates a primal model is proposed which allows a firm s preferences and technology to be estimated jointly in the presence of risk the model is applied to iowa corn production and estimated technology parameters are compared with those from other approaches modest risk aversion leads to inelastic even backbending per acre supplies and input demands yield heteroskedasticity in inputs leads to supply heteroskedasticity in prices especially for risk neutral firms

the economics of organized crime and optimal law enforcement this article extends the optimal law enforcement literature to organized crime i model the criminal organization as a vertical structure where the principal extracts some rents from the agents through extortion as long as extortion is a costless transfer from individuals to the criminal organization not only the existence of extortion is social welfare improving because it makes engaging in a criminal offense less attractive but it also allows the government to reduce expenditures on law enforcement when extortion is costly because the criminal organization resorts to threats and violence the existence of extortion is social welfare diminishing and may lead to higher expenditures on law enforcement

pests and pesticides risk and risk aversion abstract theoretical and applied literature on risk in decision making for agricultural pest control is reviewed risk can affect pesticide decision making either because of risk aversion or because of its influence on expected profit it is concluded that risk does not necessarily lead to increased pesticide use by individual farmers uncertainty about some variables such as pest density and pest mortality does lead to higher optimal pesticide use under risk aversion however uncertainty about other important variables such as output price and yield leads to lower optimal levels of pesticide use neglect of these variables in most studies has led to the false assumption that pesticides are always risk reducing inputs furthermore there is evidence that in general the pesticide dosage which maximises expected profit is lower under risk than under certainty depending on the balance of forces to increase and decrease pesticide use under risk in many circumstances the net effect of risk on optimal decision making for pest control may be minimal the effect on risk of information about pest density and other variables as in integrated pest management programmes is discussed evidence on this issue is mixed a range of analytical techniques for analysing risk in pest control is reviewed throughout the paper gaps in the existing literature are identified

mortality decline human capital investment and economic growth abstract we examine the role of increased life expectancy in raising human capital investment during the process of economic growth we develop a continuous time overlapping generations model in which individuals make optimal schooling investment choices in the face of a constant probability of death we present analytic results followed by results from a calibrated version of the model using realistic estimates of the return to schooling mortality decline produces economically significant increases in schooling and consumption allowing schooling to vary endogenously produces a much larger response of consumption and capital to mortality decline than is observed when schooling is held fixed

interactions between agricultural and resource policy the importance of attitudes toward risk using a method proposed by meyer for deriving comparative statics results in the presence of risk this paper analyzes the effects of various agricultural and environmental policy alternatives on the choices of a risk averse producer with a just and pope production function many commonly held beliefs about policy effects are not supported unambiguously by economic theory for example a tax on pesticides will not necessarily reduce pesticide use or average output and a reduction in price of agricultural output will not necessarily lead to a reduction in use of water or agricultural chemicals

what accounts for the variation in retirement wealth among u s households even among households with similar socioeconomic characteristics saving and wealth vary considerably life cycle models attribute this variation to differences in time preference rates risk tolerance exposure to uncertainty relative tastes for work and leisure at advanced ages and income replacement rates these factors have testable implications concerning the relation between accumulated wealth and the shape of the consumption profile using the panel study of income dynamics and the consumer expenditure survey we find little support for these implications the data are instead consistent with rule of thumb mental accounting or hyperbolic discounting theories of wealth accumulation jel di d91 e21

resource management under production and output price uncertainty implications for environmental policy various environmental policies have been proposed to control agricultural runoff of nutrients and pesticides the impacts of these policies on input use are complicated because of the various sources of uncertainty farmers face and the precise nature of farmers risk attitude a risk averse farmer s response to changed profit input and output taxes under output price and production uncertainty is examined the impact of these policies on input use depends on the form of production uncertainty risk input relationships risk attitudes and degrees of output price and production uncertainty these results have implications for the design and implementation of environmental and other production related policies copyright 2002 oxford university press

rational choice and the dynamics of collective political action evaluating alternative models with panel data been hampered by the inability to use perceptions of the costs and benefits of participation at a given time to predict behavior that necessarily occurred in the past and by ambiguities associated with analyzing behavioral intentions instead of actual participation using panel data collected on a national sample in west germany between 1987 and 1989 we show that variables from a collective interest model measured in 1987 individuals dissatisfaction with the provision of collective goods beliefs that group actions can be successful and beliefs in the importance of their own participation predict subsequent participation in collective protest activities variables corresponding to the private selective incentives associated with protest are found to be less relevant furthermore we find that engaging in protest changes many of the perceptions that influence future participation we discuss the implications for theories of political mobilization p erhaps no area in mass political behavior research is beset with such serious methodological difficulties as the study of participation in political protest and other unconventional activities some of the problems such as finding and eliciting truthful responses from the limited number of individuals who engage in these types of behaviors can and have been remedied through better sampling and more sensitive interviewing methods in national and local probability surveys a more fundamental problem however is that unlike voting or campaign participation unconventional behavior does not occur during fixed periods and hence researchers typically cannot plan a study in advance of the specific activities they may wish to analyze this means that almost all previous surveybased research on protest and unconventional political action is prone to what green and shapiro 1994 85 term the pedestrian methodological defect of predicting past behavior from information gathered at the survey s current time this error would be less consequential for causal

trends in male labor force participation and retirement some evidence on the role of pensions and social security in the 1970 s and 1980 s this article estimates the effects of changes in pension plans and social security in the 1970s and 1980s on the steady state retirement of men work incentives associated with pension coverage and plan characteristics are calculated primarily from the 1969 79 retirement history study and the 1983 and 1989 surveys of consumer finances simulations with a structural retirement model suggest that the long run effects of changes in pension plans and social security account for about a quarter of the reduction in full time work by men in their early sixties but cannot explain the reduction by those age 65

individual participation in collective racial violence a rational choice synthesis existing rational choice treatments of collective violence have consistently discounted the role of the public goods component of the individual s decision calculus about whether or not to participate in such acts by assuming free rider effects with respect to the public goods these theories are unable to account for the initial inception of violence or for the later nonlooting behaviors that constitute aspects of a riot and indeed are preconditions for the inception of looting the only riot behavior for which these theories can offer any explanation five dimensions of discrimination are defined in rational choice terms and their elimination or reduction is defined as the creation of a public good i use existing theories of individual contributions to the provision of public goods to demonstrate that free rider effects need not be assumed and that the inception of a riot and later nonlooting riot behaviors can best be explained as individual contributions to the provision of the public goods represented by the elimination of the several forms of discrimination

the lechatelier principle under production uncertainty under production uncertainty it is shown that the lechatelier principle holds for the derived demand of the ith factor if it is technically complementary competing with the riskincreasing risk reducing quasi fixed input and absolute risk aversion is decreasing in addition the lechatelier principle for the output supply function holds if the quasi fixed factor is an inferior normal and risk increasing risk reducing input and partial risk aversion is increasing

stochastic technology risk preferences and adoption of site specific technologies a model of farmer decision making is developed to determine the extent to which uncertainties about soil fertility and weather affect the value of site specific technologies ssts using jointly estimated risk and technology parameters uncertainty can lead risk averse farmers to apply more fertilizers and generate more pollution than in the certainty case ignoring uncertainty and risk aversion would overestimate the economic and environmental benefits of ssts and underestimate the subsidy required to induce adoption accounting for uncertainties and risk preferences might explain the low observed adoption rates of ssts improving the accuracy of ssts would increase the incentives for adoption

pensions and retirement evidence from union army veterans i investigate the factors that fostered rising retirement rates prior to social security and most private sector pensions by estimating the income effect of the first major pension program in the united sates that covering union army veterans the elasticity of nonparticipation with respect to union army pension income was 0 73 the findings suggest that secularly rising income explains a substantial part of increased retirement rates comparisons with elasticities of nonparticipation with respect to social security income suggest that the elasticity of labor force nonparticipation may have decreased with time perhaps because of the increasing attractiveness of leisure

rational choice round robin and rebellion an institutional solution to the problems of revolution abstract two collective action problems plague successful revolution on the one hand would be revolutionaries confront a participation problem whereby no rationally self interested individual has an incentive to participate in rebellion on the other hand individuals face a first mover problem whereby no rationally self interested individual has an incentive to lead rebellion this paper argues that 18th century merchant sailors who confronted these problems devised a novel institution to facilitate maritime revolution and assist them in overthrowing abusive captains this institution was called a round robin round robins helped overcome both the participation and first mover problems by aligning the interests of individual sailors desiring mutiny and restructuring the payoffs of leading versus following maritime rebellion

long term changes in the economic activity of older males in korea abstract this study estimates the labor force participation rate lfpr of older males in korea from 1955 through 2000 and analyzes the effects of several determining factors on labor force participation decisions at older ages the lfpr of men age 60 and older increased substantially from the mid 1960s to the late 1990s this pattern is in sharp contrast to the historical experiences of most other oecd countries where the lfpr of older males declined rapidly over the last century the rise in the lfpr of older males in korea between 1965 and 1995 is largely explained by the dramatic increase in the labor market activity of the rural elderly population the results of regression analyses suggest that the acceleration of population aging in rural areas as a result of the selective out migration of younger persons was the major cause of the sharp increase in the lfpr of older males it is likely that the relative decline of the rural economy in the course of industrialization made it increasingly difficult

the trend in retirement a model with leisure production and endogenous retirement is used to explain declining labor force participation rates of elderly males the model is calibrated to cross sectional data on labor force participation rates of u s males by age their drop in consumption and leisure good expenditure share in 2000 running the calibrated model for the period 1850 2000 a prediction of the evolution of the cross section is obtained the model accounts for more than 87 of the increase in retirement of men over 65 the increase in retirement is driven by rising wages and falling prices of leisure goods

the social security early entitlement age in a structural model of retirement and wealth abstract a structural life cycle model of retirement and wealth attributes retirement peaks at both ages 62 and 65 to social security rules and wide heterogeneity in time preferences those with high discount rates often retire at 62 they have few assets and heavily value lost benefits from working after 62 largely ignoring potential increases in later benefits declining actuarial adjustments beginning at 65 induce those with low discount rates to retire at 65 raising the social security early entitlement age to 64 induces 5 of the population to delay retiring shifting the retirement spike from 62 to 64

consumption versus expenditure previous authors have documented a dramatic decline in food expenditures at the time of retirement we show that this is matched by an equally dramatic rise in time spent shopping for and preparing meals using a novel data set that collects detailed food diaries for a large cross section of u s households we show that neither the quality nor the quantity of food intake deteriorates with retirement status we also show that unemployed households experience a decline in food expenditure and food consumption commensurate with the impact of job displacement on permanent income these results highlight how direct measures of consumption distinguish between anticipated and unanticipated shocks to income whereas measures of expenditures obscure the distinction

quantifying quality growth we introduce an instrumental variables approach to estimate the importance of unmeasured quality growth for a set of 66 durable consumer goods our instrument is based on predicting which of these 66 goods will display rapid quality growth using pooled cross relatively sections of households in the 1980 through 1996 u s consumer expenditure surveys we estimate quality engel curves for 66 durable consumer goods based on the extent richer households pay more for a good conditional on purchasing we use the slopes of these curves to predict the rate of quality upgrading just as if households are ascending these quality engel curves over time we find that the average price paid rises faster for goods with steeper quality slopes bls prices likewise increase more quickly for goods with steeper quality slopes suggesting the bls does not fully net out the impact of quality upgrading on prices paid we estimate that quality growth averages about 3 7 per year for our goods with about 60 of this or 2 2 per year showing up as higher inflation rather than higher real growth

is there a retirement savings puzzle in this paper we ask whether households are saving enough for their retirement we use data on income expenditure and expenditure components to analyse patterns of behaviour at and around the time of retirement for successive date of birth cohorts we compare periods of unemployment to periods of retirement and separate expenditures into categories reflecting work related expenditures basic necessities and other goods we find that income typically falls by more at unemployment than retirement but the reverse is true for expenditure we observe falls in expenditure at retirement for all expenditure categories using a stochastic life cycle model including mortality rates we assess the anticipated impact of retirement on consumption against that of unemployment the inter relationship between goods and leisure explains a large part of the persistent fall in expenditure at retirement we argue that the only way in which the life cycle hypothesis could be reconciled with the remaining unanticipated dip in consumption would be with the systematic arrival of unexpected adverse information at the time of retirement