longevity risk subjective survival expectations and individual saving behavior abstract we provide evidence of individuals awareness of longevity risk the uncertainty about future survival probabilities based on subjective survival expectations elicited in the survey of health ageing and retirement in europe share and matching data on longevity risk from the human mortality database we find a positive relationship between the forecast dispersion in subjective survival estimates and longevity risk which indicates that individuals are to some extent aware of longevity risk our analysis of savings behavior shows that the dispersion in survival estimates is primarily explained by individuals disagreeing on the survival probability and not by their true awareness of the underlying uncertainty individuals do not save more on average when faced with longevity risk although theory suggests they should

the fisher hypothesis and the forecastability and persistence of inflation abstract for the period 1860 to 1939 the simple correlation of the u s commercial paper rate with the contemporaneous inflation rate is 0 17 the corresponding correlation for the period 1950 to 1979 is 0 71 this paper attributes this apparent change in the fisher relation to differences in the stochastic process of inflation rather than a change in any structural relationship between interest rates and expected inflation contrary to recent claims in the literature there is little evidence of inflation non neutrality in data from the pre world war i period

short run exchange rate uncertainty in latin america this paper to obtain an ex ante measure of exchange rate uncertainty in 11 latin american countries as a preliminary issue the purchasing power parity ppp condition is tested using engle and granger two step procedure and johansen method the argument is that exchange rate uncertainty could be lower if ppp holds in the long run the expected exchange rate uncertainty is estimated according to an extended version of the autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic arch model the results show that the arch adjusment produces more efficient estimates in seven countries and that the acceptance of ppp has little effect on exchange rate uncertainty

models of inflation expectations formation a comparison of household and economist forecasts the recent appreciation of the critical role played by expectations of inflation in the behavior of macromodels has stimulated empirical studies of the formation of expectations by different groups time series survey data on expectations of inflation exist now for economists households and businesses these data have been used as independent variables in explaining wage behavior gordon 16 turnovsky and wachter 34 and de menil and bhatta 5 prices turnovsky and wachter 34 and wachtel 36 interest rates gibson 14 hendershott and van horne 19 pearce 30 and mishkin 27 and consumption wachtel 36 generally with a significant improvement in explanatory power they have also been used as dependent variables in attempts to determine how expectations are formed by gordon 15 mullineaux 28 jacobs and jones 20 and figlewski and wachtel 9 for the economist survey van duyne 35 for the household survey and leonard 23 and de leeuw and mckelvey 4 for businesses given their different levels of knowlege of economics and perspectives one might expect that the models used by the different groups to forecast inflation would

the purchasing power of money and nominal interest rates a re examination while it has been known for some time that under uncertainty the original version of the fisher hypothesis is not precisely correct empirical researchers have largely ignored this fact such an omission has possibly resulted in erroneous conclusions concerning other hypotheses most notably the impact of prices on the real economy this paper clarifies some of the previous interpretations of the existing empirical literature and provides a theoretical version of the relation between prices and interest rates empirical tests based on both the livingston survey data and data from time series forecasting models provide support for the fisher effect and the hypothesis that only covariance risk is priced in the treasury bill market one of the basic hypotheses concerning rationality in financial markets is based on statements generally attributed to fisher 18 fisher argued that the nominal or money rate of return on an asset should compensate an investor for his or her required real rate of return and changes in the purchasing power of money for the uncertainty case fisher replaced known purchasing power changes with the expected inflation rate whereas the fisher relationship under certainty is well defined his basic theorem under uncertainty is not precise as fama 15 has argued it is changes in the purchasing power of money not the inflation rate that should concern investors under uncertainty the expected value of one is not by jensen s inequality the inverse of the expected value of the other moreover fama and farber 16 grauer and litzenberger 20 and benninga and protopapadakis 3 have shown that when investors are risk averse the fisher relationship will generally not hold even after adjustment has been made for the distinction between purchasing power changes and the inflation rate in particular these authors show that an adjustment must be made for the fact that the real rate of return on nominal bonds is random while these issues have been discussed in the theoretical literature they have largely been ignored in the empirical work on this topic given the fact that nominal rates do not seem to adjust as rapidly to price changes as fisher hypothesized numerous empirical researchers have expanded the basic fisher model in an attempt to explain this empirical anomaly these extensions include the incorporation of a inflation rate variability and the growth in real output

inflationary expectations and the value of u s farm real estate some consistent estimates in a number of recent papers martin feldstein has hypothesized that expected inflation may increase the real value of assets such as farm real estate in this paper simple models of the value of u s farm real estate were developed to test this hypothesis both adaptive expectations and rational interest rate based expectations of future inflation were considered adaptive expectations measures for expected inflation generally suggested a negative impact of inflation on real estate value the interest rate based expectation measures had a positive coefficient in all cases but only in one case out of six was this coefficient significant

interest rate volatility and the term structure a two factor general equilibrium model we develop a two factor general equilibrium model of the term structure the factors are the short term interest rate and the volatility of the short term interest rate we derive closed form expressions for discount bonds and study the properties of the term structure implied by the model the dependence of yields on volatility allows the model to capture many observed properties of the term structure we also derive closed form expressions for discount bond options we use hansen s generalized method of moments framework to test the cross sectional restrictions imposed by the model the tests support the two factor model there are essentially two approaches to the modeling of the term structure of interest rates in continuous time the equilibrium approach pioneered by

conditional exchange rate volatility and the volume of foreign trade evidence from seven industrialized countries there has long been a concern over the volatility of exchange rates and their impact on the volume of foreign trade however very little attention has been paid to the choice of an appropriate volatility variable as well as the proper specification of the trade equation the sample standard deviation of the exchange rate has been used as a proxy for exchangerate uncertainty in empirical studies that examine the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on the volume of foreign trade see for example akhtar and hilton 1 and gotur 27 these studies have provided conflicting evidence on this issue it has been argued that use of the sample standard deviation is inappropriate because the empirical distribution of exchange rates is not normal 22 10 in this regard subsequent empirical research 12 36 40 41 11 has employed a moving standard deviation of the rate of change of the exchange rate as a proxy for exchange rate uncertainty chowdhury 11 obtained a clear pattern of results that support the hypothesis that the higher volatility of exchange rates led to a reduction in international trade transactions after the breakdown of the bretton woods system in march 1973 other studies have reported ambiguous results 2 the moving standard deviation used in these studies has been criticized in the literature for a ignoring relevant information on the random process generating exchange rates 18 b underestimating the effect of volatility on decisions 52 c distorting the measurement of the volatility variable by smoothing the series 9 and d injecting an element of arbitrariness into the calculation through decisions about the order m of the moving average 43 3

the inflation output variability tradeoff and monetary policy evidence from a garch model this paper empirically investigates the taylor curve volatility tradeoff in light of the stochastic behavior of the conditional variances of output and inflation stressing structural instability between periods before and after the 1979 1982 monetary policy regime change i implement a bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model to capture the output inflation variability tradeoff and to explore the plausible impact of a change in the federal funds rate on the two conditional volatilities i further evaluate the impacts of anticipated and unanticipated policy actions measured by two alternative policy reaction functions one from a vector autoregression based reduced form equation and another based on the taylor rule in addition to showing a volatility tradeoff relationship the empirical model reveals different magnitudes of policy effects on output and inflation volatility across the two sample periods

relative price variability and nonuniform inflationary expectations using a generalization of a rational partial information framework presented fully in cukierman and wachtel 1979 it is shown that there is a positive relationship between the variance of relative price change and the variance of inflationary expectations across markets in the economy this implication is then tested empirically using data on the variance of relative price change and on the variance of directly measured expectations the empirical evidence supports the view that there is a positive relationship between the two variances and that more than one third of this relationship is explainable in terms of the model presented

assessing the variability of inflation although there has been much argument over the impact of variable inflation rates upon economic performance there has been surprisingly little attempt to define the term variability of inflation carefully or to test proposed hypotheses connecting variability and the level of inflation precise definitions are given in the paper and a model is constructed showing that the level variability hypothesis may be formulated in terms of the presence of heteroscedasticity in a regression model this theoretical model is used to criticize existing studies while an empirical study with australian data illustrates the application of the approach

inflation forecast errors and time variation in term premia the expectations theory of the term strueture is well known to give wrong signals as to the future course of long term interest rates one explanation involves rational time varying term premia however the anomaly may also be due to inflation forecast errors we study survey forecasts of inflation it seems that the respondents forecasts are insufficiently adaptive interest rates reflect expectations similar to the inflation forecasts as a result past survey forecast errors reliably predict premia on u s government bonds

the near optimality of adaptive expectations abstract rational expectations require more information than adaptive expectations and thus must be more costly in a standard macro model the losses associated with adaptive expectations are shown to be very small indeed even for quite large monetary disturbances as a result adaptive expectations may be close to optimal as long as the monetary regime is relatively stable further with adaptive expectations fully anticipated monetary changes lead to large and persistent fluctuations in aggregate output this is true even if only a very small percentage of firms behave adaptively

endogenous risk in a portfolio balance rational expectations model of the deutschemark dollar rate abstract a portfolio balance model of the dm s rate under rational expectations is specified in which systematic risk induced deviations from uncovered interest parity are allowed this leads to a reduced from containing a potentially time varying risk premium which we approximate and estimate using an arch in mean approach the maximum likelihood estimator and a lagrande multiplier test for arch in mean are developed the estimation results indicate a small but non negligible time varying risk premium

the inflation and output variability tradeoff evidence from a garch model abstract this paper empirically investigates the possibility of a tradeoff between the variability of inflation and output gap over the period 1960 1997 in light of a bivariate garch model there is strong evidence of temporal instability in the garch process and the variability tradeoff is more apparent for the post october 1979 subperiod the slope of the tradeoff nevertheless appears to be considerably flat

cross country variation in household access to financial services abstract this paper presents estimates for more than 160 countries of the fraction of the adult population using formal financial intermediaries the estimates are constructed by combining information on account numbers at banks and microfinance institutions together with banking depth and gdp data with estimates from household surveys for a smaller set of countries an illustrative application of the data compares them with information on poverty there is a correlation but it is not clearly causal

how does the stock market react to the announcement of green policies abstract we investigate the impact of 19 announcements of environmental regulation on the equities listed on the australian stock exchange over the period 2005 2011 using a well established event study methodology we assess whether these announcements are value constructive or destructive for equity investors additionally we estimate the change in systematic risk following the announcements our results show that the australian market was particularly sensitive to the carbon pollution reduction scheme cprs announcement a cumulative abnormal return of 31 was recorded in the alternative energy sector after australia submitted its target range to the copenhagen accord we observe that a move towards a greener nation has a mixed effect on abnormal returns with apparent sector by sector differences green policies appear to affect the long term systematic risk of industries leading to the diamond risk phenomenon

replication in empirical economics the journal of money credit and banking project this paper examines the role of replication in empirical economic research it presents the findings of a two year study that collected programs and data from authors and attempted to replicate their published results the research provides new and important information about the extent and causes of failures to replicate published results in economics the findings suggest that inadvertent errors in published empirical articles are a commonplace rather than a rare occurence copyright 1986 by american economic association

sensitivity of the bank stock returns distribution to changes in the level and volatility of interest rate a garch m model abstract the objective of this paper is to employ the generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic in the mean garch m methodology to investigate the effect of interest rate and its volatility on the bank stock return generation process this framework discards the restrictive assumptions of linearity independence and constant conditional variance in modeling bank stock returns the model presented here allows for shifts in the volatility equation in response to the changes in monetary policy regime in 1979 and 1982 to be estimated arch garch and volatility feed back effects are found to be significant interest rate and interest rate volatility are found to directly impact the first and the second moments of the bank stock returns distribution respectively the latter also affects the risk premia indirectly the degree of persistence in shocks is substantial for all the three bank portfolios and sensitive to the nature of the bank portfolio and the prevailing monetary policy regime

a quantile framework for analysing the links between inflation uncertainty and inflation dynamics across countries in contrast to the conventional conditional mean approaches this study uses quantile regression techniques to present some new statistical evidence on the links between inflation uncertainty and the level of inflation with cross sectional data from 90 countries during the period 1961 to 2006 the results suggest that positive inflation shocks have stronger impact on inflation uncertainty which varies across the quantiles furthermore popular time series models are evaluated for their ability to reproduce measures of uncertainty and indicate similar results regarding the relationships between inflation and inflation uncertainty

term premia and inflation uncertainty empirical evidence from an international panel dataset this paper provides cross country empirical evidence on bond risk premia i construct a panel of zero coupon nominal government bond yields spanning ten industrialized countries and nearly two decades i hence compute forward rates and then use two different methods to decompose these forward rates into expected future short term interest rates and term premiums the first method uses an affine term structure model with macroeconomic variables as unspanned risk factors the second method uses surveys i find that term premium estimates declined across countries over the sample period especially in countries that appear to have reduced inflation uncertainty by making substantial changes in the monetary policy frameworks of their central banks during the recent financial crisis term premiums have remained flat and even declined further in some countries perhaps reflecting the effects of quantitative easing actions by many central banks

income distribution and macroeconomics this paper analyzes the role of wealth distribution in macroeconomics through investment in human capital it is shown that in the presence of credit markets imperfections and indivisibilities in investment in human capital the initial distribution of wealth affects aggregate output and investment both in the short and in the long run as there are multiple steady states this paper therefore provides an additional explanation for the persistent differences in per capita output across countries furthermore the paper shows that cross country differences in macroeconomic adjustment to aggregate shocks can be attributed among other factors to differences in wealth and income distribution across countries

volatility behavior of oil industrial commodity and stock markets in a regime switching environment abstract this study supplements previous regime switching studies on wti crude oil and finds two possible volatility regimes for the strategic commodity prices of brent oil wti oil copper gold and silver and the s p 500 index but with varying high to low volatility ratios the dynamic conditional correlations dccs indicate increasing correlations among all the commodities since the 2003 iraq war but decreasing correlations with the s p 500 index the commodities also show different volatility persistence responses to financial and geopolitical crises while the s p 500 index responds to both financial and geopolitical crises implications are discussed

finance and income inequality what do the data tell us although there are distinct conjectures about the relationship between finance and income inequality little empirical research compares their explanatory power we examine the relationship between finance and income inequality for 83 countries between 1960 and 1995 because financial develop ment might be endogenous we use instruments from the literature on law finance and growth to control for this our results suggest that in the long run inequality is less when financial development is greater consistent with galor and zeira 1993 and banerjee and newman 1993 although the results also suggest that inequality might increase as financial sector development increases at very low levels of financial sector development as suggested by greenwood and jovanovic 1990 this result is not robust we reject the hypothesis that financial development benefits only the rich our results thus suggest that in addition to improving growth financial development also reduces inequality

effects of legislation events on us gaming stock returns and market turnings abstract the deregulation of casino gaming has becomea new trend across the us since the beginning of this decade but from the mid 1990s on the voice of tightened regulation is lifted up by the public while the cyber casino online gambling business is also developing its own customer base this study examines various federal and state legislation events regarding casino gaming regulation and deregulation and finds that the announcement effects on stock portfolio returns vary across different types of gaming companies on average gaming equipment suppliers and small casino operators are found to react to legislation events more significantly compared with those large casino firms furthermore since the casino gaming business is believed to be highly sensitive to the economic upturns and downturns this paper also investigates the impacts on the risk adjusted return alpha and the systematic risk beta of gaming stocks across bull up and bear down market situations the results indicate that between july 1993 and december 1997 gaming stocks on average yield a significantly lower return and a significantly greater systematic risk against the us stock market after changes in stock market conditions are controlled the systematic risk is still considerably above the market average but the excess return turns out insignificant

reaching out access to and use of banking services across countries the authors 1 present new indicators of banking sector penetration across 99 countries based on a survey of bank regulatory authorities 2 show that these indicators predict household and firm use of banking services 3 explore the association between the outreach indicators and measures of financial institutional and infrastructure development across countries and 4 relate these banking outreach indicators to measures of firms financing constraints in particular they find that greater outreach is correlated with standard measures of financial development as well as with economic activity controlling for these factors the authors find that better communication and transport infrastructure and better governance are also associated with greater outreach government ownership of financial institutions translates into lower access while more concentrated banking systems are associated with greater outreach finally firms in countries with higher branch and atm penetration and higher use of loan services report lower financing obstacles thus linking banking sector outreach to the alleviation of firms financing constraints

the dependence structure across oil wheat and corn a wavelet based copula approach using implied volatility indexes abstract this paper examines the dependence structure between three commodities implied volatility indexes oil wheat and corn during bear normal and bull markets and at different scales for this purpose we combine wavelet and copula methods to analyse the changes of the tail dependence at different scales or investment horizons the results support evidence of time varying asymmetric tail dependence between the pair of cereals as well as between oil and the two cereals at different time horizons short term horizon medium term horizon and long term horizon suggesting that the dependence structure is sensitive to time horizons these results have important implications for the analysis of portfolio risk management

another look at the rationality of the livingston price expectations data 1990 another look at the rationality of the livingston price expectations data applied economics vol 22 no 4 pp 477 485

fisher phillips friedman and the measured impact of inflation on interest a reply the purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that empirical findings which persistently appear to contradict the fisher hypothesis that the nominal rate of interest should rise by the full amount of an increase in anticipated inflation are due basically to a failure to control for changes in the real rate of interest that are associated with changes in anticipated inflation we are guided in our search for proper specification of a fisher equation by a simple general equilibrium model which is employed to derive the impact of a change in anticipated inflation upon nominal interest given the requirement that commodity money and labor markets remain in equilibrium in effect we depart from the empirical tradition which has grown up around testing of the fisher hypothesis that takes the real interest rate to be independent of anticipated inflation and argues that for anticipated inflation properly measured the data ought to support the fisher hypothesis 1

a new database on the structure and development of the financial sector this article introduces a new database of indicators of financial structure and financial development across countries and over time the database is unique in that it combines a wide variety of indicators that measure the size activity and efficiency of financial intermediaries and markets it improves on previous efforts by presenting data on the public share of commercial banks introducing indicators of the size and activity of nonbank financial institutions and constructing measures of the size of bond and primary equity markets this article introduces a new database the first to provide comprehensive measures of the development structure and performance of the financial sector this database is the first to define and construct indicators of the size and activity of nonbank financial intermediaries such as insurance companies pension funds and non deposit money banks it is also the first to include indicators of the size of primary equity markets and primary and secondary bond markets in constructing the database authors carefully deflate measures and match stock and flow variables

are empirical measures of macroeconomic uncertainty alike there is a plethora of time series measures of uncertainty for inflation and real output growth in empirical studies but little is known whether they are comparable to the uncertainty measure reported by individual forecasters in the survey of professional forecasters are these two measures of uncertainty inherently distinct this paper shows that compared with many uncertainty proxies produced by time series models the use of real time data with fixed sample recursive estimation of an asymmetric bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model yields inflation uncertainty estimates which resemble the survey measure there is however overwhelming evidence that many of the time series measures of growth uncertainty exceed the level of uncertainty obtained from survey measure our results highlight the relative merits of using different methods in modelling macroeconomic uncertainty which are useful for empirical researchers

the impact of terrorism on financial markets an empirical study the main focus of this paper is to previous termstudynext term empirically the previous termimpact of terrorismnext term on the behavior of stock bond and commodity previous termmarkets next term we consider terrorist events that took place in 25 countries over an 11 year time period and implement our analysis using different methods an event previous termstudynext term approach a non parametric methodology and a filtered garch evt approach in addition we compare the effect of terrorist attacks on previous termfinancial markets with the impactnext term of other extreme events such as previous termfinancialnext term crashes and natural catastrophes the results of our analysis show that a non parametric approach is the most appropriate method among the three for analyzing the previous termimpact of terrorism on financial markets next term we demonstrate the robustness of this method when interest rates equity previous termmarketnext term integration spillover and contemporaneous effects are controlled we show how the results of this approach can be used for investors portfolio diversification strategies against previous termterrorismnext term risk

arch models properties estimation and testing abstract the aim of this survey paper is to provide an account of some of the important developments in the autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity arch model since its inception in a seminal paper by engle 1982 this model takes account of many observed properties of asset prices and therefore various interpretations can be attributed to it we start with the basic arch models and discuss their different interpretations arch models have been generalized in different directions to accommodate more and more features of the real world we provide a comprehensive treatment of many of the extensions of the original arch model next we discuss estimation and testing for arch models and note that these models lead to some interesting and unique problems there have been numerous applications and we mention some of these as we present different models the paper includes a glossary of the acronyms for the models we describe

the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in the uk 1885 1998 abstract using a long series of uk inflation data i have provided strong evidence in favour of the hypothesis that inflationary periods are associated with high inflation uncertainty this result supports the friedman ball hypothesis and has important implications for the inflation output relationship provided that more inflation uncertainty leads to lower output

returns to capital in microenterprises evidence from a field experiment small and informal firms account for a large share of employment in developing countries the rapid expansion of microfinance services is based on the belief that these firms have productive investment opportunities and can enjoy high returns to capital if given the opportunity however measuring the return to capital is complicated by unobserved factors such as entrepreneurial ability and demand shocks which are likely to be correlated with capital stock the authors use a randomized experiment to overcome this problem and to measure the return to capital for the average microenterprise in their sample regardless of whether they apply for credit they accomplish this by providing cash and equipment grants to small firms in sri lanka and measuring the increase in profits arising from this exogenous positive shock to capital stock after controlling for possible spillover effects the authors find the average real return to capital to be 5 7 percent a month substantially higher than the market interest rate they then examine the heterogeneity of treatment effects to explore whether missing credit markets or missing insurance markets are the most likely cause of the high returns returns are found to vary with entrepreneurial ability and with measures of other sources of cash within the household but not to vary with risk aversion or uncertainty

explaining forecasting bias the case of real exchange rate variance recent tests of the rational expections hypothesis reh based on the assumption that agents are risk neutral have yielded conflicting results when applied to foreign exchange markets here a two stage procedure which does not assumej risk neutrality is derived from a model of a utility maximizing importer who incurs an adjustment cost if he changes his import order although a short run test based on aggregate imports leads to rejection of the reh in the majortity of cases a longer ren test based on manchinery imports is more favourable to the null huypthesis the observed shot run tendency to in effect ignore low levels of real exchange rate variation is found to be more likely when bilateral rates have remained relatively stable when the importingj economy is relatively closed or when governments have announced policies of intervention to stabilize bilateral rates

price expectations in the united states 1947 75 it is common to assume that expectations about future inflation influence economic behavior the behavior of an economic system over time is determined in part by the manner in which these expectations are formed theoretical and empirical investigations frequently utilize a hypothesis that agents forecast future inflation rates primarily on the basis of past inflation rates static adaptive extrapolative and regressive expectations adjustment schemes are examples of such forecasting rules 1 but such rules generally ignore the fact that individuals observe prices not inflation rates a change in observed prices can result from general price inflation but it may also result from transitory shocks to the price level or observation error similarly apparent changes in the general inflation rate may be purely transitory in nature or may signify the beginning of a trend a model of inflation expectations should admit the possibility of these different sources of price change and embody the natural human tendency to extrapolate seeming trends this paper examines the extent to which agents reported price expectations are consistent with such naive forecasting a multilevel adaptive expectations model is developed that takes observed prices as the information available to agents on the basis of these prices individuals revise their beliefs about not only the price level but also the underlying inflation rate and trend in the inflation rate when fitted to the livingston survey data the model appears to provide a unified explanation of price expectations in the united states from 1947 to 1975 this is contrasted with earlier investigations suggesting that expectations formation differed significantly in the periods before and after 1960

the econometric analysis of models with risk terms summary in this paper we have attempted to provide an integrated approach to the estimation of models with risk terms it was argued that there exist orthogonality conditions between variables in the information set and higher order moments of the unanticipated variable density these could be exploited to provide consistent estimators of the parameters associated with the risk term specifically it was recommended that an iv estimator should be applied with instruments constructed from the information set four existing methods commonly used to estimate models with risk terms are examined and applications of the techniques are made to the estimation of the risk term in the us c exchange market and the effects of price uncertainty upon production

uncertainty and labor contract durations this paper provides an empirical investigation into the relationship between ex ante u s labor contract durations and uncertainty over the period 1970 to 1995 we construct measures of inflation uncertainty as well as aggregate nominal and real uncertainty the results not only corroborate previous findings of an inverse relationship between contract durations and inflation uncertainty but also document that this relationship extends to both measures of aggregate uncertainty we also explore the robustness of this relationship to various measures of inflation uncertainty that have appeared in the literature

the relationship between forecast dispersion and forecast uncertainty evidence from a survey data arch model this paper examines empirically the relationship between measures of forecast dispersion and forecast uncertainty from data on inflation expectations from the livingston survey series and the survey research center src survey series because the survey series do not provide probabilistic forecasts of inflation we derive measures of inflation uncertainty by modelling the conditional variance of the inflation forecast errors from the survey series as an autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic arch process the analysis is complicated by the fact that the overlap of forecast horizons for the survey series does not preclude the model s disturbance terms from displaying autocorrelation and also places a restriction on the specification for the arch measures of inflation uncertainty we estimate the model using hansen s 1982 generalized method of moments gmm procedure to account for the presence of serial correlation and conditional heteroscedasticity in the disturbance terms the results generally support the hypothesis that the measures of forecast dispersion across survey respondents are positively and statistically significantly associated with the measures of inflation uncertainty however the appropriateness of using forecast dispersion measures as proxies for inflation uncertainty is sensitive to the choice of the survey series

an empirical examination of information barriers to trade in insurance this paper uses direct evidence to evaluate whether asymmetric information is a barrier to trade in the largest market for private insurance in the world life insurance we report several findings that seem difficult to reconcile with the conventional theory of insurance under asymmetric information we conjecture that sellers may know their costs of production better than consumers in this market as in those for most other products

hysteresis and instability in the natural rate of unemployment in this paper it is pointed out that the long run phillips curve genus contains upward and downward sloping species as well as the vertical species two models are used in one the rate of inflation helps determine the natural rate of unemployment as proposed by friedman in the other the process of moving from one inflation rate to another helps shape the natural rate according to the hysteresis effect proposed by phelps in both cases the resulting models are unstable implying that a vertical long run phillips curve will not be regained if disturbed

access to finance in sub saharan africa is there a gender gap we show the existence of an unconditional gender gap in sub saharan africa however when key observable characteristics of the enterprises or individuals are taken into account the gender gap disappears in the case of enterprises we explain our finding with differences in key characteristics and a potential selection bias in the case of individuals the lower use of formal financial services by women can be explained by gender gaps in other dimensions related to the use of financial services such as their lower level of income and education and by their household and employment status

banking services for everyone barriers to bank access and use around the world using information from 193 banks in 58 countries the authors develop and analyze indicators of physical access affordability and eligibility barriers to deposit loan and payment services they find substantial cross country variation in barriers to banking and show that in many countries these barriers can potentially exclude a significant share of the population from using banking services correlations with bank and country level variables show that bank size and the availability of physical infrastructure are the most robust predictors of barriers further the authors find evidence that in more competitive open and transparent economies and in countries with better contractual and informational frameworks banks impose lower barriers finally though foreign banks seem to charge higher fees than other banks in foreign dominated banking systems fees are lower and it is easier to open bank accounts and to apply for loans on the other hand in systems that are predominantly government owned customers pay lower fees but also face greater restrictions in terms of where to apply for loans and how long it takes to have applications processed these findings have important implications for policy reforms to broaden access

aggregate uncertainty investment and asymmetric adjustment in the uk manufacturing sector theory suggests that the level of uncertainty facing firms should affect both the rate of adjustment to and the steady state level of investment although there is ambiguity about the sign of the effect a non linear model of investment behaviour incorporating time varying adjustment speeds with threshold effects is estimated for the uk manufacturing sector the most general non linear specification is found to be most congruent with the data uncertainty has a large and significant effect on both levels and rates of adjustment

the effects of recent terrorist attacks on risk and return in commodity markets abstract the event study methodology of brown and warner 1985 is adopted and augmented to evaluate the effect of the recent terrorist attacks on risk and returns in commodity markets the methodology is supplemented with various techniques such as the non parametric ranking test and kernel regression to find out if 20 terrorist attacks including in paris nice brussels stockholm manchester jakarta london and melbourne generated abnormal returns asset pricing models are fitted with interaction variables while garch tarch egarch and parch models are used to determine changes in systematic risk our results show abnormal returns and delayed reactions of up to 120 days in the commodity markets evidence which defies the efficient market hypothesis in addition we identify sector and commodity effects in risk analysis

what are the categories of geopolitical risks that could drive oil prices higher acts or threats abstract this study characterizes the oil market as a nonlinear switching phenomenon and examines its dynamics in response to changes in geopolitical risks over low and high risk scenarios we separate the shocks due to geopolitical acts from those due to geopolitical threats to address whether the serious effects of geopolitical risks are mostly due to increased threats of adverse events or to their realization as acts while we find the acts to generate a positive and strong impact on oil price dynamics the effect of threats appears to be moderate or non significant imperfect information in the oil price determination the history of oil supply disruptions emanating from geopolitical events the continued rise in populism in the world oil market volatility multifractility and the time varying degree of weak form efficiency have been advanced to explain the unforeseen responses of oil prices to geopolitical threats to accommodate recent oil related events we construct a composite geopolitical risk indicator by accounting for contemporaneous sources of geopolitical risks namely global trade tensions us china relation risks us iran tensions saudi arabia s uncertainty and venezuela s crisis the combined effects have an outsized impact on oil prices

inflation and real interest rates on assets with different risk characteristics given the importance of ex ante real interest rates to economic decision making it is no surprise that much empirical research focuses on them 1 several recent studies find that the ex ante real returns for short term u s treasury securities are not constant and are negatively correlated both with inflation and with nominal interest rates this paper examines the extent to which these findings hold for assets of longer maturity are robust with respect to the choice of price index and are stable over time we expand the set of assets studied to include those of longer maturity both publicly and privately issued for two reasons first their ex ante real returns may differ substantially from that of a short term nominally riskless security second because longer maturity assets have risk characteristics closer to capital their ex ante real returns are potentially more relevant for investment and savings decisions we explore the use of various price indices because the index used in most studies the consumer price index severely overstates inflation during the 1970s as a result of its inappropriate treatment of residential housing costs 2 this overstatement casts doubt on an important finding of previous studies that there are long stretches of time during the 1970s when ex ante real rates are significantly negative given the existence of holding costs for the goods relevant to most price indices and the absence of a riskless real return no arbitrage conditions are violated by a negative ex ante real rate however its persistence is problematical because asset holders are typically assumed to have a positive rate of time preference which ensures a positive ex ante real rate in the long run we find that before 1979 a negative relationship of ex ante real rates both with inflation and with nominal interest rates appears for the longer maturity assets as well as the short term nominally riskless asset indeed the relationship grows

causality between inflation and real growth abstract the paper investigates inflation growth causality over 1947 2005 with varma ml asymmetric vgarch the results imply that one uncertainty affects positively its level and much less negatively the other level whereas one level influences positively both uncertainties friedman s hypothesis was not strongly rejected

declining us output volatility and its effect on labour flow volatility an mgarch analysis this article analyses flow rates of us workers between employment and unemployment using new quarterly data for the period 1967 to 2002 multivariate garch models are used to investigate links between flow rate volatilities the results suggest that links changed substantially in the mid 1980s coinciding with the documented decline in output volatility these changes in adjustment dynamics are consistent with a move to greater use of hours rather than worker adjustment

investment behaviour of dutch industrial firms a panel data study abstract this study describes a putty clay model of investment for a monopolistic firm in which factor price movements also affect expected output the specifications are tested on a set of panel data for individual dutch industrial firms factor prices are significant and expected output effects of factor prices dominate substitution effects in investment demand corrections are made for attrition and for measurement errors correction for attrition does not make an important difference but correction for measurement errors does

measuring household usage of financial services does it matter how or whom you ask in recent years the number of surveys on access to and use of financial services has multiplied but little is known about whether the data generated are comparable across countries or within the same country over time a randomized experiment in ghana tested whether the identity of the respondent and the inclusion of product specific cues in questions affect reported rates of use of financial services rates of house hold uses are almost identical whether the head reports on behalf of the household or whether the rate is tabulated from a full enumeration of household members a less complete summary of household use of financial services results when randomly selected informants provide the information for credit from formal institutions informal sources of savings and insurance reported use is higher when questions are asked about specific financial products rather than about the respondent s dealings with types of financial institutions in short who is asked the questions and how the questions are asked both matter

anticipation acquisitions and bidder returns industry shocks and the transfer of information across rivals we document market anticipation of merger bids and show that less anticipated bids earn significantly higher announcement returns subsequent bidders in the industry experience significant and positive abnormal returns around the time of initial industry bid announcements these results suggest that announcement period returns underestimate the wealth effects of bidding after accounting for anticipation bidding activity is on average a significant wealth creating event moreover bidders pursuing public targets increase shareholder wealth and bidders in stock swaps do not lose these results contradict conventional wisdom our results shed light on the correct magnitude of acquisition returns and on the transfer of information throughout an industry around the time of an economic shock the author 2011 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oup com oxford university press

asymmetry and uncertainty in capital formation an application to oil investment theories of irreversible investment suggest a negative relation between investment and uncertainty and nonlinear adjustment costs open for asymmetries in the adjustment of fixed capital we propose an econometric modelling approach to estimate and test the key predictions of modern investment theory including asymmetric dynamics and various uncertainty indicators our application on a data set from the oil industry offers empirical support for both asymmetric dynamics and uncertainty in oil and gas investment

modelling price expectations an important difference between policy prescriptions based on different macroeconomic models relates to the way in which expectations are modelled in turn different approaches to expectations formation can be characterized in terms of the information available to agents and thus it becomes important to look at as many dimensions of the information set as possible because of the paucity of direct information on expectations many studies have concentrated on the few series of this nature which are available of paramount importance here is the livingston survey data on consumer price expectations however it is argued here that much previous work using these data is flawed through an inadequate consideration of the frequency on which expectations are formed and the information on which they are based

why do expectations models of the term structure fail abstract this paper provides evidence that the apparent rejection of the expectations theory for data on nominal treasury bill yields is primarily due to the failure of market participants to forecast inflation in a consistent manner over horizons of different length

high and variable inflation further evidence on the friedman hypothesis abstract this study employing a garch model finds a positive and significant relationship between the level and variability of inflation this provides evidence in support of friedman s friedman 1977 view that high inflation leads to more variable inflation

the rationality of economic voting and the macroeconomic regime since voter rationality plays a major role in theories of political economics it is important for political analysts to investigate the extent of voter sophistication a conventional strategy for addressing this question is to determine what decision rule voters appear to use by estimating rival political support models that embody varying assumptions about voter rationality however under some circumstances such a strategy may be incapable of identifying the descriptively superior model due to an observational equivalence problem the paper estimates the competing political support models under alternative macroeconomic regimes and finds evidence favoring the nonrationalist or adaptive model

what does the term structure tell us about future inflation abstract this empirical analysis indicates that for maturities of six months or less the term structure of nominal interest rates provides almost no information about the future path of inflation but does provide information about the term structure of real interest rates however as maturities lengthen to nine and twelve months the nominal term structure begins to contain information about future inflation but ceases to provide information about the real term structure these results are explained by differences in the relative variability of expected future inflation changes and real term structure slopes at different points in the term structure

consensus and uncertainty in economic prediction we define consensus as the degree of agreement among point predictions aimed at the same target by different individuals and uncertainty as the diffuseness of the corresponding probability distributions this distinction is made operational with the aid of the nber asa survey data on matched point and probabilistic forecasts of inflation and the rate of change in gross national product the means of the two sets of forecasts agree closely standard deviations of point forecasts tend to understate uncertainty as measured by standard deviations of the predictive probability distributions however these measures of consensus and uncertainty are on the whole positively correlated there is evidence that expectations of higher inflation generate greater uncertainty about inflation tests also favor the hypothesis that a rise in inflation uncertainty has adverse effects on real growth

the effects of real and nominal uncertainty on inflation and output growth some garch m evidence in this paper we use garch m methods to test four hypotheses about the effects of real and nominal uncertainty on average inflation and output growth in the united states from 1948 to 1996 we find no evidence that higher inflation uncertainty or higher output growth uncertainty raises the average inflation rate we also find no support for the idea that more risky output growth is associated with a higher average real growth rate our key result is that in a variety of models and sample periods inflation uncertainty significantly lowers real output growth copyright 2000 john wiley sons ltd

estimates of the variance of u s inflation based upon the arch model it is generally agreed that the unpredictability of future inflation is a major component of the welfare loss associated with inflation perfectly predicted inflation might induce some costs through institutional rigidities governmental interference and transaction costs but in the long run these should be rather minimal as these institutions adopt various forms of indexing when inflation is unpredictable risk averse economic agents will incur a loss even if prices and quantities are perfectly flexible in all markets inflation is a measure of the relative price of goods today and goods tomorrow thus uncertainty in tomorrow s price impairs the efficiency of today s allocation decisions friedman in his nobel lecture 8 argues convincingly that higher variability of inflation would lead to decreased output ceteris paribus he then conjectures that higher rates of inflation are generally associated with higher variability of inflation and presumably greater uncertainty about future rates if this is true then higher rates of inflation would also be associated with low levels of output which implies a positively sloped phillips curve this paper uses a new statistical technique arch to estimate the conditional mean and variance of inflation from u s time series data the main finding is that the variance of inflation in the seventies was only slightly greater than in the sixties

generalized instrumental variables estimation of autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic models abstract this paper considers an alternative to maximum likelihood ml estimation of the autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic arch model introduced in engle 1982 specifically the analysis demonstrates that hansen s 1982 generalized method of moments gmm procedure can be applied for estimation of arch models as an illustration we compare the results from ml estimation and gmm estimation of engle and kraft s 1983 arch model of u s inflation

a unit root model for trending time series energy variables in this paper we propose a garch based unit root test that is flexible enough to account for a trending variables b two endogenous structural breaks and c heteroskedastic data series our proposed model is applied to a range of time series trending and heteroskedastic energy variables our two main findings are first the proposed trend based garch unit root model outperforms a garch model without trend and second allowing for a time trend and two endogenous structural breaks are important in practice for doing so allows us to reject the unit root null hypothesis

expectations and risk in the treasury bill market an instrumental variables approach this paper examines rational expectations in the treasury bill market from 1961 to 1988 with a risk premium specified to be proportional to the volatility of excess returns using instrumental variables from 1961 to 1972 and from 1972 to 1979 rational expectations cannot be rejected and both the predictive power of the yield curve and the risk premium are highly significant by contrast with just a constant risk premium and with a risk pre mium proxied by moving averages of absolute interest rate changes rational expectations are rejected for each subperiod and the yield curve has significant predictive information only from 1972 to 1979

event studies in economics and finance the event study is an important research tool in economics and finance the goal of an event study is to measure the effects of an economic event on the value of firms event study methods exploit the fact that given rationality in the marketplace the effects of an event will be reflected immediately in security prices thus the impact can be measured by examining security prices surrounding the event in this paper event study methods are described including some of the potential complications an example is included to illustrate the approach

finance and the sources of growth the authors evaluate whether the level of development in the banking sector exerts a causal impact on economic growth and its sources total factor productivity growth physical capital accumulation and private saving they use 1 a pure cross country instrumental variable estimator to extract the exogenous component of banking development and 2 a new panel technique that controls for country specific effects and endogeneity they find that banks do exert a large causal impact on total factor productivity growth which feeds through to overall gdp gross domestic product growth the long run links between banking development and both capital growth and private savings are more tenuous

inflation and uncertainty tests for temporal ordering for the postwar united states increases in the rate of inflation tend to precede increases in the level of inflation uncertainty the finding suggests that higher inflation uncertainty is part of the welfare cost of inflation possible explanations are 1 a high rate of inflation increases uncertainty about future monetary policy and 2 there is uncertainty about the persistence of inflation copyright 1995 by ohio state university press

modelling multi period inflation uncertainty using a panel of density forecasts this paper examines the determinants of inflation forecast uncertainty using a panel of density forecasts from the survey of professional forecasters spf based on a dynamic heterogeneous panel data model we find that the persistence in forecast uncertainty is much less than what the aggregate time series data would suggest in addition the strong link between past forecast errors and current forecast uncertainty as often noted in the arch literature is largely lost in a multi period context with varying forecast horizons we propose a novel way of estimating news and its variance using the kullback leibler information and show that the latter is an important determinant of forecast uncertainty our evidence suggests a strong relationship of forecast uncertainty with level of inflation but not with forecaster discord or with the volatility of a number of other macroeconomic indicators copyright 2006 john wiley sons ltd