optimal tax depreciation with loss carry forward and backward options the choice of depreciation method from among straight line and accelerated methods can have a significant impact on the present value of expected tax payments this is a problem that has been studied for decades with most results indicating the optimality of accelerated methods recent research questions this claim by relaxing the assumption of positive taxable income the situation where net operating losses may be carried forward and backward in time is the subject of this paper we model this situation and establish conditions that allow straight line depreciation to be preferred over accelerated methods the results are focused around a threshold number of periods of consecutive losses which are determined by the allowable periods to carry a loss forward for consecutive losses beyond this threshold straight line will always be optimal when the cumulative depreciation charges up to and including the window are guaranteed to be applied on or before the threshold period then straight line will never be optimal

measurement of human capital input across countries a method based on the laborer s income abstract i propose the aggregate output divided by the wage rate of an industrial laborer in a country as a measure of the aggregate human capital input for that country i use this method to compare the human capital inputs for 45 countries of diverse output levels i find that human capital input differs between the lowest income and the highest income countries by a factor of 2 2 or 2 8 depending on the inclusion of outlier countries this is significant but small relative to the results from the method based on years of schooling

comparison of depreciation and corporate tax policies between the countries of the north american free trade area nafta and the european community ec abstract this paper compares the depreciation rules corporate income tax rates and investment tax credits of canada mexico and the united states north american free trade area with the twelve countries of the european community belgium denmark france germany greece ireland italy luxembourg the netherlands portugal spain and the united kingdom for illustrative purposes a comparative example of computer systems is included

replacement decisions with multiple stochastic values and depreciation abstract we develop an analytical real option solution to the after tax optimal timing boundary for a replaceable asset whose operating cost and salvage value deteriorate stochastically we construct a general replacement model from which seven other particular models can be derived along with deterministic versions we show that the presence of salvage value and tax depreciation significantly lowers the operating cost threshold that justifies and thus hastens replacement although operating cost volatility increases defer replacement increases in the salvage value volatility hasten replacement albeit modestly while increases in the correlation between costs and salvage value defer replacement reducing the tax rate or depreciation lifetime or allowing an investment tax credit yield mixed results these results are also compared with those of less complete models and deterministic versions showing that failure to consider several stochastic variables and taxation in the replacement process may lead to sub optimal decisions

using survey data to test standard propositions regarding exchange rate expectations survey data provide a measure of exchange rate expectations superior to the forward rate in that no risk premium interferes we estimate extrapolative adaptive and regressive models of expectations static or random walk expectations and bandwagon expectations are rejected current appreciation generates the expectation of future depreciation because variables other than the contemporaneous spot rate receive weight in comparing expectations to the process governing the spot rate we find statistically significant bias no variable is as ubiquitous in international financial theory and yet as elusive empirically as investors expectations regarding exchange rates in the past expectations have been modeled in an ad hoc way often by using the forward exchange rate there is however a serious problem with using the forward discount as the measure of the expected change in the exchange rate in that the two may not be equal the gap that may separate the forward discount and expected depreciation is generally interpreted as a risk premium most of the large empirical literature testing the unbiasedness of the forward exchange rate for example has found it necessary either arbitrarily to assume away the existence of the risk premium if the aim

rational bias in macroeconomic forecasts do professional forecasters provide their true unbiased estimates or do they behave strategically in our model forecasters have common information confer actively and thus know the true pdf of future outcomes intensive users of economic forecasts monitor forecasters performance closely occasional users are drawn to the forecaster who fared best in the previous period in the resulting nash equilibrium even though economists have identical expectations they make a range of projections that mimics the true probability distribution of the forecast variable those whose wages depend most on publicity produce forecasts that differ most from the consensus empirical evidence supports the model

renewing assets with uncertain revenues and operating costs we study optimal replacement and abandonment decisions for real assets when both revenues and costs are uncertain and deteriorate with age we develop an implicit representation of the renewal boundary as the solution to a set of simultaneous equations this quasi analytical method has the merit of computational ease and transparency we show that the correlation between revenues and operating costs has a significant influence on the renewal boundary and that the increase in revenue immediately following a renewal has a greater relative influence on the boundary than either operating cost or renewal cost the quasi analytical method is sufficiently flexible to deal with other real option models involving 2 variables

on the biasedness of forward foreign exchange rates irrationality or risk premia in this article the authors reconsider the k a froot and j a frankel 1989 results on the sources of forward discount bias they question the economic validity of some estimation restrictions that they impose and thus are led to question some of their results the authors employ a new exchange rate survey database that includes european monetary system currencies and use univariate and pooling estimation techniques that impose fewer restrictions than those of froot and frankel to test their hypotheses they find that the bias in the forward discount is attributable to both the failure of rational expectations and the existence of time varying risk premia copyright 1994 by university of chicago press

on the consistency of short run and long run exchange rate expectations abstract this paper examines whether short term exchange rate expectations overreact by comparing them with long term expectations we develop a set of nonlinear restrictions linking expectations at different forecast horizons the restrictions impose consistency a property weaker than rationality we use exchange rate survey data to measure expectations and then test whether consistency holds the data show that a current positive exchange rate shock leads investors to expect a higher long run future spot rate when iterating forward their short term expectations than when thinking directly about the long run in this sense short horizon expectations may overreact to current exchange rate changes

on the internal consistency of short term medium term and long term oil price forecasts we derive internal consistency restrictions on short medium and long term oil price forecasts we then analyse whether oil price forecasts extracted from the survey of professional forecasters spf conducted by the european central bank ecb satisfy these internal consistency restrictions we find that neither short term forecasts are consistent with medium term forecasts nor that medium term forecasts are consistent with long term forecasts using a more complex expectation formation structure featuring a distributed lag structure however we find stronger evidence of internal consistency of medium term forecasts with long term forecasts

are foreign exchange forecasts rational new evidence from survey data abstract tests of rationality in foreign exchange markets have been inconclusive because of disagreement over the relevant asset pricing model this paper uses a newly available set of data on foreign exchange expectations to directly test the rationality of four foreign currency markets overall the results reject the rational expectations hypothesis

foreign exchange rate expectations micro survey data this paper analyzes the panel data of biweekly surveys on the yen dollar exchange rate expectations of forty four institutions for two years and contains four major findings first market participants are heterogeneous that is significant individual effects exist in their expectation formation second the individual effects have a characteristic of wishful expectations exporters expect yen depreciation and importers expect yen appreciation relative to others third many violate the rational expectations hypothesis fourth forecasts with long horizons show less yen appreciation than those with short horizons cross equation constraints implied by the consistency of the forecast term structure are strongly rejected in the data copyright 1990 by american economic association

heterogeneous expectations and tests of efficiency in the yen dollar forward exchange rate market this paper examines the efficiency of the forward yen dollar market using micro survey data conventional tests of unbiasedness do not correspond directly to the zero profit condition instead we use the survey data to calculate potential profits of individual forecasters based on a natural trading rule we find that although the survey data are not the best predictor of future spot rates in terms of typical mean square forecast error criteria the survey data can be used to obtain on average positive profits however these profits are small and highly variable similar results are found when we examine profits generated by a trading rule using regression forecasts the profits are found to be correlated with risk type variables but not other available information

optimal tax depreciation under a progressive tax system the focus of this paper is on the effect of a progressive tax system on optimal tax depreciation by using dynamic optimization we show that an optimal strategy exists and we provide an analytical expression for the optimal depreciation charges depreciation charges initially decrease over time and after a number of periods the firm enters a steady state where depreciation is constant and equal to replacement investments this way the optimal solution trades off the benefits of accelerated depreciation because of discounting and of constant depreciation because of the progressive tax system we show that the steady state will be reached sooner when the initial tax base is lower or when the discounting effect is stronger

further evidence on exchange rate expectations abstract this paper considers a previously unexploited survey data set of exchange rate expectations which allows us to focus on differences between ems and dollar exchange rates we corroborate the earlier finding in the literature that exchange rate forecasts are not rational and that agents do not use all available information efficiently although extrapolative and adaptive expectations formation mechanisms describe non ems exchange rate expectations to a certain extent ems exchange rates forecasts seem to follow long run fundamentals more closely and would suggest that agents believe that ems exchange rate expectations undershoot their long run equilibrium values jel f31

operational asset replacement strategy a real options approach abstract this paper analyses the problem of replacement by investigating the optimal moment of investment replacement in a given tax environment with a given depreciation policy an operation and maintenance cost minimization model based on the definition of equivalent annual cost is applied to a real options paradigm the developed methodology allows for an innovative evaluation of the flexibility of replacement process analysis a new two factor evaluation function is introduced to quantify decisions on asset replacement under a unique cycle environment this study improves upon previous findings in the literature as it accounts for autonomous salvage value processes based on partial differential equations this model achieves a general analytical solution and particular numerical solution the results differ significantly from those observed in one factor models by showing evidence of over evaluation in optimal levels of replacement and by confirming suspicions that different types of uncertainties produce non monotonous effects on the optimal replacement level the scientific contribution of this study lies in new and stronger approaches to equivalent annual cost literature supplying an algorithm for operation and maintenance cost minimization that is conditioned by autonomous salvage value this study also contributes to the real options literature by developing a two factor model with brownian processes applied to asset replacement

investment under uncertainty the case of replacement investment decisions we analyze the determinants of replacement investment decisions in a contingent claims model with maintenance and operation cost uncertainty we find that the optimal time between replacements is increasing in the volatility of cost the purchase price of a new asset and the corporate tax rate and is decreasing in the systematic risk of cost the salvage value of the asset and the investment tax credit the optimal time between replacements can either increase or decrease with an increase in the depreciation rate extensions of the model to examine the effects of technological and tax policy uncertainty on replacement investment decisions give intuitive but striking results uncertainty about the arrival of a technological innovation that would decrease maintenance and operation cost results in a significant decrease in replacement investment uncertainty in a tax law change that would encourage investment decreases current investment and uncertainty in a tax law change that would discourage investment increases current investment

the effect of tax depreciation on the stochastic replacement policy abstract the optimal replacement policy for an asset subject to a stochastic deteriorating operating cost is determined for three different tax depreciation schedules and a known re investment cost as the solution to a two factor model using a quasi analytical method we find that tax depreciation exerts a critical influence over the replacement policy by lowering the operating cost thresholds although typically a decline in the corporate tax rate increase in any initial capital allowance or decrease in the depreciation lifetime increase in depreciation rate results in a lower operating cost threshold which justifies replacing older equipment these results are not universal and indeed for younger age assets the result may be the opposite an accelerating depreciation schedule may incentivize early replacement in a deterministic context but not necessarily for an environment of uncertainty

investments of uncertain cost abstract this paper examines irreversible investment decisions when projects take time to complete and are subject to two types of cost uncertainty the first is technical uncertainty i e uncertainty over the physical difficulty of completing a project which is only resolved as the investment proceeds the second is input cost uncertainty i e uncertainty over the prices of construction inputs or over government regulations affecting construction costs which is external to the firm these two types of uncertainty have very different effects on the investment decision a simple investment rule is derived that maximizes firm value and is used to analyze the decision to start or continue building a nuclear power plant during the 1980s

optimal tax depreciation with uncertain future cash flows abstract since taxable income consists of cash flows reduced with depreciation charges the choice of the depreciation method affects taxable income in future periods a manager can therefore try to minimize the present value of future tax payments by choosing a particular depreciation method among those that are accepted by the tax authorities we focus here on the choice between the two most commonly used methods in practice i e the straight line depreciation method sdm and an accelerated depreciation method adm such as the double declining balance ddb method and the sum of the years digits syd method we show how the optimal choice depends on the discount factor the degree of uncertainty in future cash flows and the structure of the tax system