opium in afghanistan prospects for the success of source country drug control policies abstract recent estimates suggest that in 2007 afghan opiate production accounted for about 93 percent of the world s total this article presents a framework for estimating the potential for source country drug control policies to reduce this production it contains a first pass at estimating the potential for policy to shift the supply of opium upward as well as a range of supply and demand elasticities the estimates suggest that meager reductions in production can be expected through alternative development programs alone reductions are less than 6 5 percent in all but one of the specifications presented they also suggest that substantial increases in crop eradication would be needed to achieve even moderate reductions in production reductions range from 3 0 percent to 19 4 percent for various specifications the results also imply that all else being equal the cessation of crop eradication would result in only modest increases in opiate production with estimates ranging from 1 6 percent to

is tiger woods loss averse persistent bias in the face of experience competition and high stakes although experimental studies have documented systematic decision errors many leading scholars believe that experience competition and large stakes will reliably extinguish biases we test for the presence of a fundamental bias loss aversion in a high stakes context professional golfers performance on the pga tour golf provides a natural setting to test for loss aversion because golfers are rewarded for the total number of strokes they take during a tournament yet each individual hole has a salient reference point par we analyze over 2 5 million putts using precise laser measurements and find evidence that even the best golfers including tiger woods show evidence of loss aversion jel d03 d81 l83

fiscal paradise foreign tax havens and american business the tax haven affiliates of american corporations account for more than 20 percent of u s foreign direct investment and nearly a third of the foreign profits of u s firms american companies report extraordinarily high profit rates on their tax haven investments in 1982 this behavior implies that the revenue maximizing tax rate for a typical haven is around 5 8 percent american and foreign investment in tax havens has an uncertain effect on u s tax revenue but since low tax rates encourage american companies to shift profits out of high tax foreign countries it is possible that low foreign tax rates ultimately enhance u s tax collections

anomalies risk aversion economists ubiquitously employ a simple and elegant explanation for risk aversion it derives from the concavity of the utility of wealth function within the expected utility framework we show that this explanation is not plausible in most applications since anything more than economically negligible risk aversion over moderate stakes requires a utility of wealth function that is so concave that it predicts absurdly severe risk aversion over very large stakes we present examples of how the expected utility framework has misled economists and why we believe a better explanation for risk aversion must incorporate loss aversion and mental accounting

capital structure choice and company taxation a meta study this paper provides a quantitative review of the empirical literature on the tax impact on corporate debt financing synthesizing the evidence from 46 previous studies we find that this impact is substantial in particular the tax rate proxy determines the outcome of primary analyses measures like the simulated marginal tax rate graham 1996a avoid a downward bias in estimates for the debt response to tax moreover debt characteristics econometric specifications and the set of control variables affect tax effects accounting for misspecification biases by means of meta regressions we predict a marginal tax effect on the debt ratio of 0 3

repatriation taxes repatriation strategies and multinational financial policy abstract several investment repatriation strategies are added to the standard model of a multinational in which an affiliate is located in a low tax country and is limited to two alternatives repatriating taxable dividends to the parent or investing in its own real operations in our model affiliates can invest in passive assets which the parent can borrow against or in related affiliates which can be used as vehicles for tax favored repatriations we show analytically how the availability of alternative strategies can effect real investment throughout the worldwide corporation we use firm level data for us multinationals to test for the importance of alternative strategies the evidence is generally consistent with the theory particularly the strategies using related affiliates

phasing the operation mode of foreign subsidiaries reaping the benefits of multinationality through internal capital markets the lifetime of foreign equity partnerships is often limited research suggests that mncs abandon their local partners when the need for sharing ownership in foreign subsidiaries has diminished this study shows that mncs may abandon their local equity partners to reap the benefits of multinationality as mncs gain a competitive advantage from leveraging resources across borders they will initially benefit from sharing ownership with a local firm to embed their foreign subsidiaries in the local environment and access local resources more effectively later they will benefit from taking over the local partner s equity share to better embed their subsidiaries in the parent organization and transfer locally accessed resources to the mnc s other locations moderated mediation regressions provide evidence of such practice in the context of cross border transfers of capital resources this strategy seems to work as a corollary of our model panel regressions suggest that sharing ownership with local firms in a host country with a capital resource advantage is associated with appropriating more capital resources from the local debt market while abandoning these partner firms later is associated with transferring more capital resources from this host country via internal capital markets to other parts of the mnc

the short run and long run effects of behavioral interventions experimental evidence from energy conservation we document three remarkable features of the opower program in which social comparison based home energy reports are repeatedly mailed to more than six million households nationwide first initial reports cause high frequency action and backsliding but these cycles attenuate over time second if reports are discontinued after two years effects are relatively persistent decaying at 10 20 percent per year third consumers are slow to habituate they continue to respond to repeated treatment even after two years we show that the previous conservative assumptions about post intervention persistence had dramatically understated cost effectiveness and illustrate how empirical estimates can optimize program design jel d12 d83 l94 q41

estimating the causal effect of forced eradication on coca cultivation in colombian municipalities summary colombia has aggressively pursued forced coca eradication to reduce the amount of land that agricultural households devote to illegal crops however few rigorous empirical studies have assessed its causal effect on land allocation decisions i use a 6 year panel covering the entire country for the years 2001 06 to estimate this effect i instrument eradication with changes in the expected cost of protecting eradication crews as they get far from the airports used as a point of departure estimates show the causal effect of a 1 increase in eradication to be approximately a 1 increase in coca cultivation

international narcotics trade foreign aid and enforcement i introduction it is widely accepted that the problems that a country may face as a direct result of narcotics related activities are numerous 1 moreover drug production and trade are intimately tied to other serious international concerns notably the financing of insurgencies and terrorist activities shughart 2006 keefer loayza and soares 2008 intriligator 2010 piazza 2011 a prime example is the involvement of the taliban in afghanistan in the production and trafficking of heroin see blanchard 2009 clemens 2013a 2013b similar issues are observed in colombia and mexico hence the indirect costs of narcotics related activities are also substantial nonetheless the enforcement of prohibitions on the production consumption and movement of narcotics remains among the most controversial issues in international relations not least because the global response has met with somewhat limited success 2 even taking the objective of reducing global consumption of narcotics as given it is unclear which of the available policy tools are likely to be the most effective at meeting the objective the consumption and distribution in narcotics importing countries can be targeted directly although the history of the past one and a half centuries indicates that it is very difficult alternatively and more realistically the supply side can be targeted law enforcement authorities in narcotics exporting countries can be used to eradicate production facilities and to interdict trafficking and alternative production activities can be encouraged by providing technical assistance or by direct subsidization in all cases involving the supply side however it must be recognized that the global production of narcotics is concentrated in developing economies many of these countries lack the enforcement resources to engage effectively against well funded producers and well armed traffickers and their supporting terrorist and rebel groups therefore foreign aid to finance law enforcement activities is essential 3 alternative development policies may also be supported through foreign technical assistance or by directing foreign aid toward alternative production subsidies the effects of these policies on narcotics exporting economies have not however been adequately addressed in the literature our work adds a new dimension to the existing literature on the economics of narcotics 4 we construct a theoretical model that explores the effects of foreign financing of anti narcotics enforcement activities in narcotics producing exporting countries along with other potential policy interventions while previous literature has taken a partial equilibrium approach to analyzing related issues our work differs substantially in adopting general equilibrium methods as martin and symansky 2006 note opium production in afghanistan for example accounted for approximately 27 of economic activity in 2005 2006 given this fact substantial general equilibrium effects must be present and deserve full exploration we focus attention on the consequences of the multitude of severe distortions that narcotics production and enforcement introduce to factor markets we envisage an economy where workers engage in both licit and illicit activities are paid a premium for the risk of incarceration or seizure of their marginal product involved in the latter and a nonproductive law enforcement sector uses real resources to combat illicit activity our work draws on a number of strands of economic theory including tied aid factor market distortions dual economies illicit markets and law enforcement a number of important new results emerge from our analysis foreign aid will increase enforcement activity and will generally lower narcotics production the more market power the narcotics producing country has the less effective foreign aid will be however in fact aid intended for anti narcotics enforcement may effectively be siphoned into the wages of narcotics workers

do taxes affect corporate debt policy evidence from us corporate tax return data abstract this paper uses u s statistics of income soi corporate income tax returns balance sheet data on all corporations to estimate the effects of changes in corporate tax rates on the debt policies of firms of different sizes small firms face very different tax rates than larger firms and relative tax rates have also changed frequently over time providing substantial information to identify tax effects the results suggest that taxes have had a strong and statistically significant effect on debt levels for example cutting the corporate tax rate by ten percentage points e g from 46 to 36 holding personal tax rates fixed is forecast to reduce the fraction of assets financed with debt by around 3 5 since small firms normally rely much more heavily on debt finance yet face much lower tax incentives to use debt the estimated effect of taxes would be strongly biased downwards without controls for firm size

an endowment effect for risk experimental tests of stochastic reference points recent models of reference dependent preferences indicate that expectations may play a prominent role in the presence of behavioral anomalies a subset of such expectations based models predicts an endowment effect for risk that risk attitudes differ when reference points change from certain to stochastic in two purposefully simple risk preference experiments eliminating often discussed confounds i demonstrate both between and within subjects such an endowment effect for risk these results provide needed separation between expectations based reference dependent models allow for evaluation of recent theoretical extensions and may help to close a long standing debate in decision science on inconsistency between utility elicitation methodologies

do swedish multinationals pay less in taxes than domestic firms in recent years there has been growing concern that multinational enterprises mnes engage in strategic tax planning in order to shift profits to low tax jurisdictions this common perception is generally confirmed by empirical evidence which is foremost provided for countries with high corporate taxes and relatively complex tax systems we investigate whether multinational firms in a country with a comparatively more competitive tax system undertake profit shifting we do this by using detailed census data from corporate income statements and balance sheets filed by swedish manufacturing firms between 1997 and 2007 many previous studies have used tax rate differences to identify profit shifting these studies however run the risk of overestimating the amount of tax shifting as this method entangles tax planning activities with the effect a lower corporate tax rate has on resulting profits we avoid this by comparing mnes with domestic firms unable to benefit from other tax jurisdictions in particular we identify systematic differences in tax payments earnings before interest and taxes and equity ratios between multinational and comparable domestic firms based on propensity score matching in addition we examine the tax behavioral impact of acquiring multinational status using difference in differences estimations and or propensity score matching our results reveal that the extent to which multinational firms have lower tax payments than their domestic counterparts depends on their production characteristics and foreign market outreach in particular we find evidence indicating that firms operating in few foreign markets and firms that become multinational engage in profit shifting from sweden less

expectations as endowments evidence on reference dependent preferences from exchange and valuation experiments while evidence suggests that people evaluate outcomes with respect to reference points little is known about what determines them we conduct two experiments that show that reference points are determined at least in part by expectations in an exchange experiment we endow subjects with an item and randomize the probability they will be allowed to trade subjects that are less likely to be able to trade are more likely to choose to keep their item in a valuation experiment we randomly assign subjects a high or low probability of obtaining an item and elicit their willingness to accept for it the high probability treatment increases valuation of the item by 20 30 copyright 2011 oxford university press

taxation and capital structure choice evidence from a panel of german multinationals this paper analyzes the impact of taxes and lending conditions on the financial structure of multinationals foreign affiliates the empirical analysis employs a large panel of affiliates of german multinationals in 26 countries in the period from 1996 until 2003 in accordance with the theoretical predictions the effect of local taxes on leverage is positive for both types of debt moreover while adverse local credit market conditions are found to reduce external borrowing internal debt is increasing supporting the view that the two channels of debt finance are substitutes

nudges at the dentist abstract we implement a field experiment to study the impact of reminder messages on dental health prevention patients who are due to schedule a check up receive no reminder a neutral reminder postcard or reminders including additional information on the benefits of prevention our results document a strong impact of reminders within one month after receiving a reminder the fraction of patients who make a check up appointment more than doubles the effect declines slightly over time but remains economically and statistically significant including additional information in the reminders does not significantly increase response rates relative to the neutral reminder finally our data indicates that applying reminders repeatedly neither strengthens nor weakens their effects

an evaluation of the swedish system of active labour market programmes in the 1990s we investigate the presence of short and long term effects from joining a swedish labor market program vis a vis more intense job search in open unemployment overall the impact of the program system is found to have been mixed joining a program has increased employment rates among participants a result robust to a misclassification problem in the data on the other hand it has also allowed participants to remain significantly longer on unemployment benefits and more generally in the unemployment system this being particularly the case for those entitled individuals entering a program around the time of their unemployment benefits exhaustion

every drop counts a water conservation experiment with hotel guests we implement a field experiment with hotel guests to measure the effects of nonprice interventions on water conservation and customer satisfaction in hotels guests have no direct pecuniary incentive to conserve water as consumers do at home where they pay their own water bills because hotels earn greater profits when they manage to convince guests to conserve guests may be suspicious of a hotel s stated social goal of water conservation by implementing behavioral interventions that address these challenges we find that our nudges can induce guests to reduce their water consumption even when no direct monetary incentive is provided using post stay customer surveys we detected no adverse effects on customer satisfaction due to these nudges jel d12 i31 q41 q50

a cue theory of consumption psychological experiments demonstrate that repeated pairings of a cue and a consumption good eventually create cue based complementarities the presence of the cue raises the marginal utility derived from consumption in this paper such dynamic preferences are embedded in a rational choice model behavior that arises from this model is characterized by endogenous cue sensitivities costly cue management commitment and cue based spikes in impatience the model is used to understand addictive habit forming behaviors and marketing the model explains why preferences change rapidly from moment to moment why temptations should sometimes be avoided and how firms package and position goods

who is afraid of political risk multinational firms and their choice of capital structure this paper investigates how multinational firms choose the capital structure of their foreign affiliates in response to political risk we focus on two choice variables the leverage and the ownership structure of the foreign affiliate and we distinguish different types of political risk such as expropriation unreliable intellectual property rights and confiscatory taxation in our theoretical analysis we find that as political risk increases the ownership share tends to decrease whereas leverage can both increase or decrease depending on the type of political risk using the microdatabase direct investment of the deutsche bundesbank we find supportive evidence for these different effects

why do people keep their promises an experimental test of two explanations numerous psychological and economic experiments have shown that the exchange of promises greatly enhances cooperative behavior in experimental games this paper seeks to test two theories to explain this effect the first posits that individuals have a preference for keeping their word the second assumes that people dislike letting down others payoff expectations according to the latter account promises affect behavior only indirectly because they lead to changes in the payoff expectations attributed to others i conduct an experiment designed to distinguish between and test these alternative explanations the results demonstrate that the effects of promises cannot be accounted for by changes in payoff expectations this suggests that people have a preference for promise keeping per se

knowledge is less power experimental evidence from residential energy use abstract imperfect information about product attributes inhibits efficiency in many choice settings but can be overcome by providing simple low cost information we use a randomized control trial to test the effect of high frequency information about residential electricity usage on the price elasticity of demand informed households are three standard deviations more responsive to temporary price increases an effect that is not attributable to price salience conservation extends beyond pricing events in the short and medium run providing evidence of habit formation and implying that the intervention leads to greenhouse gas abatement survey evidence suggests that information facilitates learning jel d12 d83 l11 l94 q41 q54

new york city cab drivers labor supply revisited reference dependent preferences with rational expectations targets for hours and income this paper reconsiders whether cabdrivers labor supply decisions reflect reference dependent preferences following botond koszegi and matthew rabin 2006 we construct a model with targets for hours as well as income both determined by rational expectations estimating using henry s farber s 2005 2008 data we show that the reference dependent model can reconcile his 2005 finding that drivers stopping probabilities are significantly related to hours but not income with the negative wage elasticity of hours found by colin camerer et al 1997 and farber 2005 2008 the model yields sensible estimates that avoid farber s 2008 criticism that drivers income targets are too unstable to allow a useful reference dependent model of labor supply

flexible parametric estimation of duration and competing risk models in this paper we specify and estimate a flexible parametric proportional hazards model the model specification is flexibly parametric in the sense that the baseline hazard is non parametric while the effect of the covariates takes a particular functional form we also add parametric heterogeneity to the underlying hazard model specification we specify a flexible parametric proportional competing risks model which permits unrestricted correlation among the risks unemployment duration data are then analysed using the flexible parametric duration and competing risks specifications we find an important effect arising from the exhaustion of unemployment insurance and significantly different hazards for the two types of risks new jobs and recalls

counterproductive counternarcotic strategies we model the economic incentives surrounding opium poppy cultivation in afghanistan specifically we examine the impact of eradication policies when opium is used as a means of obtaining credit and when the crops are cultivated in sharecropping arrangements the analysis suggests that when perfect credit markets are available an increased risk of eradication will lead to less land being allocated to opium poppy however when opium is used as a means of obtaining credit an eradication policy can rather increase land under poppy cultivation furthermore the unintended effects of eradication can be augmented in sharecropping arrangements

the econometrics of nonlinear budget sets traditional empirical analysis of consumer demand has usually made the assumption of linear budget sets that is the consumer is assumed to purchase any desired quantity at a constant price subject to a budget constraint the major exception to this framework is the analysis of demand when some goods are rationed 2 in the rationed case the price is constant up to a quantity limit in contrast to the rationed case here i consider the situation where the price varies with the amount of the good purchased empirical situations with nonconstant prices come readily to mind and of course they have received much recent attention from theorists since mirrlees 44 paper on optimal nonlinear taxation the following examples are meant to give a partial listing of cases when nonlinear budget sets occur i electricity prices many electric utilities engage in declining block pricing that is the marginal price of successive kwh s of electricity decrease at a given number of points determined by total demand thus the budget set is piecewise linear houthakker 36 was the first to propose an approach to this problem taylor 51 analyzes the problem at length and hausman kinnucin and mcfadden 31 use an instrumental variables estimator to provide consistent estimates of the demand function

learning self control this article examines how a decision maker who is only partially aware of his temptations learns about them over time in facing temptations individuals use their experience to forecast future self control problems and choose the appropriate level of commitment i demonstrate that rational learning can be perpetually partial and need not result in full sophistication the main result of this article characterizes necessary and sufficient conditions for learning to converge to full sophistication i apply this result to a consumption savings environment in which a decision maker is tempted by present bias and establish a learning theoretic justification for assuming sophistication in this setting an individual who finds himself continuously repudiating his past plans may learn to distrust his future behavior and may do something about it strotz 1955

heroin consumption prices and addiction evidence from self reported panel data estimation models of drug demand should encompass the aspect of addiction here we consider two static panel data regression models and two cross section models with lags or leads in drug consumption as additional regressors heroin injectors attending a needle exchange service in oslo were interviewed twice with a one year interval despite our relatively small sample we obtain statistically significant price and income responses for nearly all of the models and specifications applied the sample is split by dealing status with dealers obtaining price elasticities in the range of 0 15 1 51 and non dealers 0 71 1 69 somewhat surprisingly the estimates of the variance of the latent individual specific variable are rather low in the panel data models although higher for non dealers than for dealers

income and livelihoods in the war in afghanistan we explore the impact of the insurgency and military deployment on the livelihoods of local communities in afghanistan we use monthly wages and commodity prices at the provincial level over the period 2003 09 and look for their response to conflict events and isaf deployment overall we find that prices are more sensitive to deployment than to attacks commodity prices are not significantly affected by insurgent violence which is consistent with coping strategies already in place on the opposite military deployment is associated with an increase in the levels of wages and commodity prices as isaf is a new source of uncertainty

choice and procrastination author s o donoghue ted rabin matthew abstract recent models of procrastination due to self control problems assume that a procrastinator considers just one option and is unaware of her self control problems we develop a model where a person chooses from a menu of options and is partially aware of her self control problems this menu model replicates earlier results and generates new ones a person might forego completing an attractive option because she plans to complete a more attractive but never to be completed option hence providing a non procrastinator additional options can induce procrastination and a person may procrastinate worse pursuing important goals than unimportant ones

income shifting investment and tax competition theory and evidence from provincial taxation in canada abstract we study corporate income taxation when firms operating in multiple jurisdictions can shift income using tax planning strategies because income of corporate groups is not consolidated for tax purposes in canada firms may use financial techniques such as lending among affiliates to reduce subnational corporate taxes a simple theoretical model shows how income shifting affects real investment government revenues and tax base elasticities depending on whether firms must allocate income to provinces or not we then analyze data from administrative tax records to compare the behavior of corporate subsidiaries that may engage in income shifting to comparable firms that must use the statutory allocation formula to determine their taxable income in each province the evidence suggests that income shifting has pronounced effects on provincial tax bases according to our preferred estimate the elasticity of taxable income with respect to tax rates for income shifting firms is 4 9 compared with 2 3 for other comparable firms

long term educational consequences of secondary school vouchers evidence from administrative records in colombia colombia s paces program provided over 125 000 poor children with vouchers that covered the cost of private secondary school the vouchers were renewable annually conditional on adequate academic progress since many vouchers were assigned by lottery program effects can reliably be assessed by comparing lottery winners and losers estimates using administrative records suggest the paces program increases secondary school completion rates by 15 to 20 percent correcting for the greater percentage of lottery winners taking college admissions tests the program increased test scores by two tenths of a standard deviation in the distribution of potential test scores jel i21 j12 i28

why countries differ in thin capitalization rules the role of financial development abstract the purpose of thin capitalization rules is to limit multinational firms possibilities of engaging in tax planning via debt shifting this paper analyzes the optimal design of thin capitalization rules in the presence of financial frictions when a host country in the first stage chooses the type of thin capitalization rule and then in the second stage decides about the strictness we show that welfare under a safe haven rule is higher than under an earnings stripping rule if firms are not able to manipulate the interest rate on internal loans welfare however can be higher under an earnings stripping rule if firms are able to manipulate the interest rate on internal loans we also show that the optimal level of internal interest deductions decreases with the financial development of the host country our results are consistent with countries actual policy choice

the persistence of treatment effects with norm based policy instruments evidence from a randomized environmental policy experiment during a 1977 fireside chat president jimmy carter famously appealed to american hom eowners to set their thermostats at 65 degrees to help conserve supplies of natural gas and fuel oil norm based strategies are commonly used to influence a range of private behaviors with public consequences including alcohol and drug use gambling and resource consump tion in the last decade these strategies increas ingly emphasize the use of social comparisons to motivate behavioral changes efforts to use such comparisons build upon leon festinger s 1954 social comparison theory which posits that individuals validate the appropriateness of an action or thought through comparison to others a subsequent literature in social psychol ogy argues that strategies based on this theory provide an effective means to promote environ mental conservation see e g tim kurz ngaire donaghue and ian walker 2005 p wesley schultz et al 2007 noah j goldstein robert b cialdini and vladas griskevicius 2008 jessica m nolan et al 2008 in this literature the work by schultz et al 2007 has proven most influential and forms the basis of opower s well cited social comparison approach for

modeling farmers response to uncertain rainfall in burkina faso a stochastic programming approach farmers on the central plateau of burkina faso in west africa cultivate under precarious conditions rainfall variability is extremely high in this area and accounts for much of the uncertainty surrounding the farmers decision making process strategies to cope with these risks are typically dynamic sequential decision making is one of the most important ways to cope with risk due to uncertain rainfall in this paper a stochastic programming model is presented to describe farmers sequential decisions in reaction to rainfall the model describes farmers strategies of production consumption selling purchasing and storage from the start of the growing season until one year after the harvest period this dynamic model better describes farmers strategies than do static models that are usually applied this study draws important policy conclusions regarding reorientation of research programs and illustrates how operations research techniques can be usefully applied to study grass root problems in developing countries

saving power to conserve your reputation the effectiveness of private versus public information environmental damage is often an unseen byproduct of other activities disclosing environmental impact privately to consumers can reduce the costs and or increase the moral benefits of conservation behaviors while publicly disclosing such information can provide an additional motivation for conservation cultivating a green reputation in a unique field experiment in the residence halls at the university of california los angeles we test the efficacy of detailed private and public information on electricity conservation private information was given through real time appliance level feedback and social norms over usage and public information was given through a publicly visible conservation rating our analysis is based on 7 120 daily observations about energy use from heating and cooling lights and plug load for 66 rooms collected over an academic year our results suggest that while private information alone was ineffective public information combined with private information motivated a 20 percent reduction in electricity consumption achieved through lower use of heating and cooling public information was particularly effective for above median energy users

goal setting and energy conservation abstract this paper develops a theoretical model of consumer demand for an energy conservation program that involves non binding self set goals we present evidence from a northern illinois goal setting program aimed at reducing residential electricity consumption which is difficult to reconcile with standard preferences and is broadly consistent with a model of present biased consumers with reference dependent preferences we find that the need for commitment is correlated with program adoption higher pre adoption consumption and lower responsiveness to goals consumers choosing realistic goals persistently save substantially more achieving savings of nearly 11 than those choosing very low or unrealistically high goals

debt shifting and ownership structure abstract previous theoretical studies on the debt shifting behavior of multinationals have assumed affiliates of multinationals to be wholly owned we develop a model that allows a multinational firm to determine both the leverage and ownership structure in affiliates endogenously a main finding is that affiliates with minority owners have less debt than wholly owned affiliates and therefore a less tax efficient financing structure this is due to an externality that arises endogenously in our model where costs and benefits of debt shifting are shared asymmetrically between minority and majority owners our findings provide a theory framework for recent empirical findings

energy conservation nudges and environmentalist ideology evidence from a randomized residential electricity field experiment nudges are being widely promoted to encourage energy conservation we show that while the electricity conservation nudge of providing feedback to households on own and peers home electricity usage works with liberals it can backfire with conservatives our regression estimates predict that a democratic household that pays for electricity from renewable sources that donates to environmental groups and that lives in a liberal neighborhood reduces its consumption by 3 percent in response to this nudge a republican household that does not pay for electricity from renewable sources and that does not donate to environmental groups increases its consumption by 1 percent

guilt in games a clear conscience is a good pillow why does this old proverb contain an insight the emotion of guilt holds a key psychologists report that the prototypical cause of guilt would be the infliction of harm loss or distress on a relationship partner roy baumeister arlene m stillwell and todd f heatherton 1994 245 june price tangney 1995 moreover guilt is unpleasant and may affect behavior to render the associated pangs counterfactual baumeister stillwell and heatherton state if people feel guilt for hurting their partners and for failing to live up to their expectations they will alter their behavior to avoid guilt in ways that seem likely to maintain and strengthen the relationship avoided guilt is the down of the sound sleeper s bolster how can guilt be modeled how are human interaction and economic outcomes influenced we offer a formal approach for providing answers start with an extensive game form which associates a monetary outcome with each end node say that player i lets player j down if as a result of i s choice of strategy j gets a lower monetary payoff than j expected to get before play started player i s guilt may depend on how much he lets j down player i s guilt may also depend on how much j believes i believes he lets j down we develop techniques to analyze equilibria when players are motivated in part by a desire to avoid guilt the intellectual home for our exercise is what has been called psychological game theory this framework originally developed by john geanakoplos david pearce and ennio stacchetti 1989 and recently extended by battigalli and dufwenberg 2005 henceforth b d allows players utilities to depend on beliefs about choices states of nature

an analysis of economic warfare in times of conflict an adversary s resources are a source of potential harm many geopolitical tactics are thus quite explicitly economic as they seek either to deter an adversary s worst intentions or reduce its capacity to inflict damage richardson 1960 tullock 1974 relevant policies include trade limiting sanctions galtung 1967 pape 1997 and direct attacks on an adver sary s military infrastructure or personnel 1 this paper explores a third example namely efforts to undermine an adversary s source of income i focus on us efforts to reduce the resources of taliban loyal insurgents by suppressing the afghan opium trade with additional applications to conflicts involving oil producing nations the taliban historically profited from the opium trade through a 10 percent tax on farmers known locally as ushr and by providing traffickers with protection services this link between opium income and taliban resources coupled with concerns about a narcoticsinsecurity cycle motivates the view that the united states should suppress the afghan opium trade blanchard 2009 caution is warranted

labor supply of new york city cabdrivers one day at a time life cycle models of labor supply predict a positive relationship between hours supplied and transitory changes in wages because such changes have virtually no effect on life cycle wealth previous attempts to test this hypothesis empirically with time series data have not been supportive estimated elasticities are typically negative or nonsignificant such analyses however are vulnerable to measurement error and other estimation problems we use data on daily observations of wages and hours for new york city cab drivers to estimate the supply response to transitory fluctuations in wages cab drivers decide daily how many hours to supply and face wages that are positively correlated within days but largely uncorrelated between days using these data our central finding is that wage elasticities are persistently negative from 5 to 1 in three different samples even after correcting for measurement error using instrumental variables these negative wage elasticities challenge the notion that cab drivers trade off labor and leisure at different points in time and question the empirical adequacy of life cycle formulations of labor supply

work incentives and the food stamp program abstract labor supply theory makes strong predictions about how the introduction or expansion of a social welfare program impacts work effort although there is a large literature on the work incentive effects of afdc and the eitc relatively little is known about the work incentive effects of the food stamp program and none of the existing literature is based on quasi experimental methods we use the cross county introduction of the program in the 1960s and 1970s to estimate the impact of the program on the extensive and intensive margins of labor supply earnings and family cash income consistent with theory we find reductions in employment and hours worked when food stamps are introduced the reductions are concentrated among families headed by single woman

reference dependent consumption plans we develop a rational dynamic model in which people are loss averse over changes in beliefs about present and future consumption because changes in wealth are news about future consumption preferences over money are reference dependent if news resonates more when about imminent consump tion than when about future consumption a decision maker might to generate pleasant surprises overconsume early relative to the optimal committed plan increase immediate consumption following surprise wealth increases and delay decreasing consumption following surprise losses since higher wealth mitigates the effect of bad news people exhibit an unambiguous first order precautionary savings motive

goal setting and self control abstract this paper addresses the role of non binding goals to attenuate time inconsistency present biased agents have linear reference dependent preferences and endogenously set a goal that is the reference point they face an infinite horizon optimal stopping problem in continuous time when there is sufficient commitment to expectation based goals goal setting attenuates the present biased agent s tendency to stop too early and may even lead an agent to wait longer than the first best in particular reference dependence is strictly worse for a time consistent agent notably none of the effects of goal setting require loss aversion

multinational firms and tax havens multinational firms with operations in high tax countries can benefit the most from reallocating taxable income to tax havens though this is sufficiently difficult and costly that only 20 4 of german multinational firms have any tax haven affiliates among german manufacturing firms a 1 percentage point higher foreign tax rate is associated with a 2 3 greater likelihood of owning a tax haven affiliate this is consistent with tax avoidance incentives and contrasts with earlier evidence for u s firms the relationship is less strong for firms in service industries possibly reflecting the difficulty of reallocating taxable service income