sulfur dioxide control by electric utilities what are the gains from trade title iv of the 1990 clean air act amendments caaa established a market for transferable sulfur dioxide so2 emission allowances among electric utilities this market offers firms facing high marginal abatement costs the opportunity to purchase the right to emit so2 from firms with lower costs and this is expected to yield cost savings compared to a command and control approach to environmental regulation this paper uses econometrically estimated marginal abatement cost functions for power plants affected by title iv of the caaa to evaluate the performance of the so2 allowance market specifically we investigate whether the much heralded fall in the cost of abating so2 compared to original estimates can be attributed to allowance trading we demonstrate that for plants that use low sulfur coal to reduce so2 emissions technical change and the fall in prices of low sulfur coal have lowered marginal abatement cost curves by over 50 percent since 1985 the flexibility to take advantage of these chan

spatial price discrimination in agricultural product procurement markets a computational economics approach significant transport costs and spatially distributed supply and processing create oligopsony power in agricultural markets price discrimination expressed in the form of partial or complete absorption of freight charges by processors is often observed in these environments but we understand little about how these pricing decisions are made analytical approaches are often intractable as an alternative we propose a computational economics approach to analyze a general spatial competition model and study firms choices of spatial pricing policy instead of the commonly presumed free on board pricing we find that buyers choose price discrimination either through uniform delivered pricing or through partial freight absorption

a new approach to modeling early warning systems for currency crises can a machine learning fuzzy expert system predict the currency crises effectively abstract this paper presents a hybrid causal model for predicting the occurrence of currency crises by using the neuro fuzzy modeling approach the model integrates the learning ability of the neural network with the inference mechanism of fuzzy logic the empirical results show that the proposed neuro fuzzy model leads to a better prediction of crisis significantly the model can also construct a reliable causal relationship among the variables through the obtained knowledge base compared to neural network and the traditionally used techniques such as logit the proposed model can thus lead to a somewhat more prescriptive modeling approach based on determinate causal mechanisms towards finding ways to prevent currency crises

speculative currency attacks and balance of payments crises abstract this paper reviews the recent theoretical literature on collapsing exchange rate regimes using a combination of technique intuition and realworld observation we discuss the literature s main insights point out some unresolved questions and offer suggestions for future research the survey should be of interest to both specialists and non specialists in the field of international macroeconomics

spatial pricing in the united states west germany and japan this paper investigates the spatial pricing policies of a sample of firms in the united states west germany and japan we begin in section i by providing general results for the three countries these suggest that f o b pricing is the exception rather than the rule furthermore there appear to be significant differences between the countries in the degree of spatial price discrimination the remainder of the paper examines whether the inter country differences in spatial discrimination can be explained by a theory of spatial pricing section ii uses the theory of spatial pricing proposed in greenhut and greenhut 1975 to derive an operational model in section iii the parameters of this model are estimated from the individual country data and the results are discussed section iv presents the conclusions the data used in this study were obtained from a survey of firms in the three countries in each country target regions were selected with a similar urban rural proportions as restricted by b existing acquaintanceships with professors in or near these urban rural centres survey constraint b was imposed after a mailed questionnaire pilot study in the united states had indicated a likely need for follow up mailings phone calls and even interviews before a sufficient number of responses from a particular place e g a particular state in the united states could be expected after selecting our comparable survey areas firms were picked at random from industrial lists of business establishments in each country and questionnaires were mailed to them the questionnaire is reproduced in the appendix the firms that returned questionnaires were compared to non responding firms no distinction in size of firm industry type or location was apparent for any country or sub region studied among the respondents we dropped from the sample all firms that were not subject to a significant freight cost defined to be a 5 per cent minimum freight cost to delivered cost ratio on sales to at least one distant market point our findings on pricing strategies are summarized in table 1 firms in the united states tend to price discriminatorily of 174 sampled firms less than one third priced non discriminatorily f o b the spokesmen for the remaining firms 67 per cent admitted that they did not add full freight cost to their mill price on all of their distant sales these firms therefore priced discriminatorily the tendency to price discriminatorily is even greater in west germany and japan with the percentage of discriminating firms approximately

mexico s balance of payments crisis a chronicle of a death foretold this paper claims that the roots of mexico s balance of payments crisis are found in the prevailing high degree of capital mobility and financial globalization under these circumstances shifts in foreign capital flows and anticipation of a banking system bailout may produce large imbalances between stocks of financial assets and foreign reserves threatening the sustainability of currency pegs econometric analysis suggests that half of mexico s reserve losses could be accounted for by these phenomena large financial imbalances are also fertile ground for self fulfilling prophesy crises which lead devaluations to produce deep recessions these difficulties can be partly remedied by appropriate policies

financial crises and balance of payments crises a simple model of the southern cone experience abstract this paper starts from a simple model of the domestic banking sector and develops the potentially destabilizing macroeconomic consequences of its role in intermediating foreign capital inflows both financial and balance of payments crises may result reminiscent of the southern cone experience

on crises contagion and confusion abstract since the tequila crisis of 1994 1995 the asian flu of 1997 and the russian virus of 1998 economists have been busy producing research on the subject of contagion yet few studies have examined empirically through which channels the disturbances are transmitted if there are indeed fundamental reasons for the spillovers we observe we attempt to fill this gap by analyzing how both trade links and the largely ignored financial sector links influence the pattern of fundamentals based contagion we examine the role of international bank lending the potential for cross market hedging and bilateral and third party trade in the propagation of crises

delivered pricing and the impact of spatial differentiation on cartel stability abstract this paper analyzes the impact of spatial differentiation on the sustainability of collusion on delivered prices it shows that the choice of the punishment mechanism that enforces collusion is crucial for determining whether differentiation facilitates cartel pricing or not if punishments are optimal then differentiation tends to facilitate collusion optimal punishments impose minmax profits on deviators independently of the degree of differentiation a high degree of differentiation then renders deviations less profitable since it makes business stealing more costly but does not affect the deviator s punishment profits depending on the transport cost technology excessive differentiation may have a countervailing effect however because it also implies high transport costs for the cartel if collusion is sustained by standard grim trigger punishments instead then collusion may be easiest for minimal differentiation the reason is that competitive and thus grim trigger punishment profits are higher the higher the degree of differentiation

currency crashes in emerging markets an empirical treatment we use a panel of annual data for over 100 developing countries from 1971 through 1992 to characterize currency crashes we define a currency crash as a large change of the nominal exchange rate that is also a substantial increase in the rate of change of nominal depreciation we examine the composition of the debt as well as its level and a variety of other macroeconomic factors external and foreign crashes tend to occur when output growth is low the growth of domestic credit is high and the level of foreign interest rates are high a low ratio of fdi to debt is consistently associated with a high likelihood of a crash

uncapacitated plant location under alternative spatial price policies given a spatial system of clients demand functions this paper proposes solution methods to determine the prices the number the locations the sizes and the market areas of the plants supplying the clients in order to maximize the profit of the firm three alternative spatial price policies are considered i uniform mill pricing in which the same price is charged to the clients at the plant door ii uniform delivered pricing in which clients pay the same delivered price irrespective of their locations and iii spatial discriminatory pricing which is such that the firm sets client specific prices based on their locations computational results are reported

contagion and trade why are currency crises regional abstract currency crises tend to be regional they affect countries in geographic proximity this suggests that patterns of international trade are important in understanding how currency crises spread above and beyond any macroeconomic phenomena we provide empirical support for this hypothesis using data for five different currency crises in 1971 1973 1992 1994 and 1997 we show that currency crises affect clusters of countries tied together by international trade by way of contrast macroeconomic and financial influences are not closely associated with the cross country incidence of speculative attacks

spatial price discrimination with heterogeneous products product heterogeneity is introduced into the context of spatial price discrimination many of the strong properties of the standard homogeneous goods case which are attained as a limit case here are shown to be no longer valid in particular the social optimum is no longer sustainable as a market equilibrium unless products are either identical or else very different

financial policy and speculative runs with a crawling peg argentina 1979 1981 abstract in this paper we present a model of a balance of payments crisis and examine the argentine experiment with a crawling peg between december 1978 and february 1981 the approach taken allows us to examine the evolution of a crisis when a collapse is not perfectly foreseen and yields plausible estimates of one month ahead probabilities of a collapse of the crawling peg the results suggest that the viability of an exchange rate regime depends on the consistency of exchange rate policy with domestic credit policy if the two are not consistent confidence in exchange rate policy is undermined

exchange market mayhem the antecedents and aftermath of speculative attacks exchange market mayhem the antecedents and aftermath of speculative attacks this paper evaluates the causes and consequences of episodes of turbulence in foreign exchange markets using data from 1959 through 1993 for twenty oecd countries we consider the antecedents and aftermath of devaluations and revaluations flotations fixings and speculative attacks which may not be successful we find that realignments of fixed exchange rates are alike devaluations are preceded by political instability budget and current account deficits and fast growth of money and prices revaluations are mirror images of devaluations speculative attacks resemble devaluations but money growth and inflation are more endemic and there is no last minute attempt to tighten monetary policy in contrast few consistent correlations link regime transitions like flotations or fixings to macroeconomic or political variables transitions between exchange rate regimes are largely idiosyncratic and are neither consistently provoked ex ante by systematic imbalances nor typically justified ex post by subsequent changes in policy we conclude that there are no clear early warning signals of many speculative attacks and no easy solutions for policy makers barry eichengreen andrew k rose and charles wyplosz

collapsing exchange rate regimes some linear examples abstract we construct a pair of linear examples to study the collapse time of a fixed exchange rate regime the first example is a perfect foresight continuous time model which allows calculation of the exact collapse time and the tracking of reserves the second example is a discrete time stochastic model which yields an endogenous probability distribution over the collapse time and produces a forward discount of the exchange rate

developing an early warning system to predict currency crises abstract the purpose of this paper is to develop an early warning system to predict currency crises in this study a data set covering the period of january 1992 december 2011 of turkish economy is used and an early warning system is developed with artificial neural networks ann decision trees and logistic regression models financial pressure index fpi is an aggregated value composed of the percentage changes in dollar exchange rate gross foreign exchange reserves of the central bank and overnight interest rate in this study fpi is the dependent variable and thirty two macroeconomic indicators are the independent variables three models which are tested in turkish crisis cases have given clear signals that predicted the 1994 and 2001 crises 12 months earlier considering all three prediction model results turkey s economy is not expected to have a currency crisis ceteris paribus until the end of 2012 this study presents uniqueness in that decision support model developed in this study uses basic macroeconomic indicators to predict crises up to a year before they actually happened with an accuracy rate of approximately 95 it also ranks the leading factors of currency crisis with regard to their importance in predicting the crisis

mill pricing versus spatial price discrimination under bertrand and cournot spatial competition this paper asks two questions about spatial competition first does spatial price discrimination lead to lower prices and higher welfare than mill pricing if firms hold the bertrand conjecture the answer is yes for most values of fixed cost but for the cournot conjecture the opposite is true second does the introduction of space into the oligopoly models of bertrand and cournot change their results the answer is generally no however spatial bertrand prices exceed marginal cost unlike their spaceless counterparts these answers are obtained using models of spatial competition of which the cournot mill pricing models are new in spatial competition significant transport costs and economies of scale bestow market power upon firms this paper addresses two questions about spatial competition first does spatial price discrimination yield lower prices and higher social welfare producer plus consumer surplus than fo b mill pricing under spatial price discrimination differences in the delivered prices charged by a firm bear no necessary relationship to differences in transport costs in contrast a mill pricing firm sets a single price at its plant and customers bear the cost of transport this paper answers this question for the cases in which firms adopt the bertrand or cournot conjectures concerning how rivals will react to price and output changes this question is important because of the superficial appeal of mill pricing which stems from its imitation of the spatial structure of marginal costs the presence of spatial price discrimination by contrast is often considered to be evidence of the presence of market power at least in part for these reasons the us robinson patman antitrust act and great britain s price commission favor mill pricing nevertheless spatial price discrimination remains ubiquitous in the us europe and japan greenhut 1981 the second question is how does the introduction of space into the original oligopoly models of cournot and bertrand change their results cournot

implausible results or implausible data anomalies in the construction of value added data and implications for estimates of price cost markups in a recent article in this journal robert hall 1988 argued that many american industries charge prices well above marginal costs suggesting either that firms fail to maximize profits or that the possession of substantial market power by firms is the rule rather than the exception hall found price exceeding marginal cost not only in manufacturing where high concentration and the plausible existence of important economies of scale suggest the importance of market power but in relatively unconcentrated nonmanufacturing industries as well subsequent research has confirmed hall s claim that price exceeds marginal cost in u s manufacturing industries domowitz hubbard and petersen 1988 applied hall s method to a more detailed and complete manufacturing data set and rejected the null of price equal to marginal cost at high levels of significance hall however analyzes nonmanufacturing industries as well since theories of the causes of markups can be tested more easily with a larger sample of industries and since further work to uncover the determinants and welfare effects of the market power apparently possessed by u s firms would

policy measures to avoid a currency crisis this paper considers a number of policy measures that may be used to preserve a fixed exchange rate these are analyzed in a model where a switch of exchange rate regime is triggered by an optimizing policymaker in response to extreme economic conditions it is shown how a number of policy measures can be used to alter the balance between the costs and benefits of switching between regimes these policy measures have both a direct effect on the policymaker s choice of regime switching point and an indirect effect through private sector expectations of a regime switch copyright 1995 by royal economic society

delivered pricing fob pricing and collusion in spatial markets in this situation the choice variable for the firm is a price system that specifies a price per unit of product at each location each firm must choose a function p x where x is the distance between the location of the consumer and the location of the firm in practice different industries use different types of pricing systems p x and this suggests that the prevailing pricing system depends on the structural elements of the market when the pricing policy is fob consumers can pick up the product at the mill paying the mill price p and incurring the transportation cost from the producer s to the consumer s location i e p x p t x or the seller may deliver the good to the buyer s location as long as it charges mill price plus transportation costs delivered pricing policies are pricing rules p x that are not based on consumers picking up the product at the mill the firm delivers the product at the consumer s location in a perfectly competitive world with a continuum of firms an fob pricing system would be expected p x c t x where c is the marginal cost of production in the case of a market with two firms located at the