environmental and economic effects of the copenhagen pledges and more ambitious emission reduction targets abstract a multi region multi sector dynamic computable general equilibrium model is applied to explore the economic and welfare effects of the pledges submitted by developed countries annex i countries and major developing non annex i countries for 2020 under the copenhagen accord in addition to analyzing scenarios reflecting the upper and lower bounds of the copenhagen pledges one additional policy scenario where annex i countries as a group reduce co 2 emissions by 30 in 2020 compared to 1990 levels and where major non annex i countries reduce co 2 emissions 15 below baseline is also analyzed economic effects are measured as changes in gdp compared to baseline and welfare effects are measured via the equivalent variation assuming that countries with emission targets may trade certificates average reductions in gdp for countries with targets range between 0 1 and 0 7 in 2020 for the policy scenarios while the gdp losses are larger for major non annex i countries with emission targets compared to annex i countries this is not the case for the changes in welfare with the exception of mexico the welfare losses for the major non annex i regions as a percentage of projected gdp in 2020 are lower than for the large annex i countries

assessing the performance of renewable electricity support instruments abstract the performance of feed in tariffs and tradable certificates is assessed on criteria of efficacy efficiency equity and institutional feasibility in the early stage of transition to an energy system based entirely on renewable energy supplies renewable electricity can only thrive if support takes into account the specific technical economic and political problems which result from embedding this electricity in conventional power systems whose technology organizational structure environmental responsibility and general mission differ profoundly from the emerging renewable based system support schemes need to capture the diversity of power supplies the variable nature of some renewable supplies and their different attributes for the purposes of public policy they must take into account the variety of generators including small decentralized generation emerging in a renewable based system and the new relationships between generators and customers renewable energy policies need a clear point of reference because the incumbent power systems are not sustainable they must adapt to the requirements of the renewable ones not the other way round incumbent systems carry the responsibility of paying the transition something that corresponds best with the polluter pays principle

complying with the kyoto protocol under uncertainty taxes or tradable permits the kyoto protocol allocates tradable emission allowances aaus to developed countries but they are free to choose a set of policy instruments to comply with these targets we compare two different policy instruments a tax and purely domestic tradable permits for the european union the us and japan information on abatement costs and international permit price is imperfect and stems from nine global economic models for a country party to the protocol the benefit of emission reduction is that it can sell more or has to buy less aaus we show that in this context permits entail a slightly lower expected cost than a tax for the us and japan whereas both instruments yield an almost equal outcome for europe applying weitzman s framework prices vs quantities res 1974 in this context we show the importance of the positive correlation between costs and benefits technology shocks that lead to low abatement costs in one country generally lead to low abatement costs in other countries too thereby leading to a low international permit price in the true up period

infrastructure and public utilities privatization in developing countries should governments in developing countries promote private ownership and deregulated prices in noncompetitive sectors or should they run publicly owned firms and regulate prices at the expense of rents to insiders a theoretical model is used to answer these normative questions the analysis focuses on the tradeoff between fiscal benefits and consumer surplus during privatization of noncompetitive sectors privatization transfers control rights to private interests and eliminates public subsidies yielding benefits to taxpayers at the cost of increased prices for consumers in developing countries where budget constraints are tight privatization and price liberalization may be optimal for low profitability industries but suboptimal for more profitable industries and once a market has room for more than one firm governments may prefer to regulate the industry without a credible regulatory agency regulation is achieved through public ownership

the generalized theory of transfers and welfare bilateral transfers in a multilateral world paul samuelson s 1952 1954 classic papers on the transfer problem addressed two separate analytical issues the positive effect of a transfer on the terms of trade and the welfare effect of the transfer on the donor and the recipient since then a considerable body of literature has grown up on the positive analysis while samuelson 1954 himself had extended the 2 x 2 x 2 free trade analysis to allow for tariffs and transport costs subsequent writers have analyzed other extensions of the model for example to allow for nontraded goods as with leisure in samuelson 1971 or general nontraded goods in john chipman 1974 and ronald jones 1970 1975 remarkably however the welfare analysis of transfers has not paralleled these developments since wassily leontief 1936 produced an example of immiserizing transfer from abroad and samuelson 1947 argued that the example required market instability the proposition that has monopolized attention has been that a transfer in the conventional 2 x 2 x 2 model in its free trade version cannot immiserize the recipient or enrich the donor as long as world markets are stable in the walras sense interestingly samuelson 1954 who did extend the positive analysis to include tariffs did not go on to ask whether immiserization of the transfer recipient and hence symmetrically enrichment of the donor in a two country model could now arise consistent with market stability recently the welfare analysis of transfers has been extended in two different directions both apparently unconnected and both yielding the conclusion that transfers from abroad can be immiserizing and that the donor may improve its welfare despite market stability one route to this conclusion has been the introduction of a third economic agent or country that is outside of the transfer process in the appendix of his 1960 paper analyzing the interaction between trade policy and income distribution harry johnson discussed the possibility of welfareparadoxical redistribution between two factor income classes capital and labor in an open economy thereby providing what can be interpreted as a treatment of the threeagent transfer problem for the case in which donor and recipient are both completely specialized in the ownership of a single different factor an independent analysis of the three agent transfer problem using a restrictive model with given endowments of goods and fixed coefficients in consumption was also undertaken in an important paper by david gale 1974 2 brecher and bhagwati bhagwati department of economics columbia university new york ny 10027 brecher department of economics carleton university ottawa on kis 5b6 hatta department of political economy the johns hopkins university baltimore md 21218 we thank the national science foundation grant no 524718 for partial financial support of the research underlying this paper the paper was written when brecher and hatta were visiting columbia university 1981 82 gratefully acknowledged are helpful comments and suggestions from john chipman avinash dixit jacques dreze robert feenstra jacob frenkel ronald jones murray kemp andreu mas colell michael mussa john riley lars svensson and robert willig from anonymous referees and from seminar participants at berkeley harvard minnesota rochester chicago and the university of california los angeles after the present paper was submitted for publication and following its presentation at rochester our attention was drawn to this appendix which was noticed by a student of ronald jones subsequently we learned from makoto yano that motoshige itoh had pointed out an important related paper by ryuotaro komiya and t shizuki 1967 whose condition 11 for the johnson case anticipated our equation 12 below we are grateful for having both of these references brought to our attention 2 gale constructs an example in which the donor is enriched along with the recipient furthermore this immediately implies that a reverse transfer will immis

basic concepts for designing renewable electricity support aiming at a full scale transition by 2050 abstract renewable electricity supply is a crucial factor in the realization of a low carbon energy economy the understanding is growing that a full turn over of the electricity sectors by 2050 is an elementary condition for avoiding global average temperature increase beyond 2 c this article adopts such full transition as europe s target when designing renewable energy policy an immediate corollary is that phasing in unprecedented energy efficiency and renewable generation must be paralleled by phasing out non sustainable fossil fuel and nuclear power technologies the double phasing programme assigns novel meaning to nearby target settings for renewable power as share of total power consumption it requires organizing in the medium term eu wide markets for green power a highly demanding task in the present context of poorly functional markets in brown power the eu commission s 2007 2008 proposals of expanding tradable certificates markets were not based on solid analysis of past experiences and future necessities the keystone of sound policies on renewable electricity development is a detailed scientific differentiation and qualification of renewable electricity sources and technologies for measuring the huge diversity in the field we provide but structuring concepts about such qualification because implementation requires extensive research resources support for renewable electricity development is organized via feed in prices or premiums and via quota obligations connected to tradable green certificates green certificates are dependent on physical generated renewable power but separable and no joint products contrary to conventional wisdom we argue their separation in cost analysis but firm linking during trade a few graphs illustrate the importance of assigning qualities to different renewable power sources technologies feed in systems based on an acceptable qualification perform generally better than certificate markets imposing uniform approaches on a very diverse reality for a similar reason uniform and undifferentiated taxation of non sustainable energy sources cannot replace renewable energy support schemes capable of differentiation

misreading liberalisation and privatisation the case of the us energy utilities in europe in response to energy market liberalisation and privatisation initiatives promoted by the eu and other european states in the 1990s a large number of us energy utilities expanded their activities in europe mainly through acquisitions the size of their investment was a decade later matched by the ensuing scale of their retreat wealth destruction and often forced exit combining interviews industry studies published financial data and company reports this article examines critically their strategy and in light of widespread failures seeks to answer the question of what went wrong it is argued that mistakes might have been avoided through greater appreciation of how market liberalisation evolves given changing government priorities and general sovereign risk

assessment of copenhagen pledges with long term implications abstract this study first evaluates the pledges under the copenhagen accord using the dne21 model our estimates for the 2020 pledges fall collectively within the range of 46 700 49 100 mt co 2 eq our study also finds the efforts arising from the current 2020 pledges have wide ranging implications in terms of mitigation costs and types of actions based on this analysis we seek to place the copenhagen pledges in a long term context putting focus on costs and feasibility we set up a carbon prices convergence scenario assuming that all countries start from the copenhagen commitments and gradually undertake their own individual efforts in accordance with the convergence of carbon prices toward a uniform price in 2050 despite soaring carbon prices in most countries total costs as share of gdp show modest increase ranging mostly between 0 and 0 4 we also find that there does not seem to be much difference in the degree of burden between developed and major developing countries under this scenario since the challenge of climate change will require significant reductions in ghg emissions in the coming decades we need to make long lasting efforts getting on the right track toward the ultimate goal of stabilizing ghgs

windfalls and other profits abstract windfall profits again is a popular term but mostly the term is used inappropriately this short article discusses why and proposes a more complete taxonomy of profits there exists little ground and need for policy to act against genuine windfalls while the contrary holds for other excessive earnings very few windfalls freely fallen down from winds in the sky occur after observed excessive profits are stripped from deliberate man made interventions that is why clear identification and correct language are needed

aid the public sector and the market in less developed countries a reply the article in this journal by mosley et al i987 concludes its analysis of aid effectiveness as demonstrating inability of development aid over more than twenty years to provide a net increment to overall growth in the third world p 636 this note purports to show that this conclusion which is ostensibly distressing as the authors claim is not warranted the section of the study which is the basis of the conclusion cited and the subject of this note is a cross section regression analysis full details of which are shown in mosley et al table 3 the note is concerned with the relation between the dependent variable specified as the growth rate of real gdp per cent per annum hereafter gdp and aid specified as a percentage of gdp hereafter aid the aid results with only two significant positive coefficients in one subsample certainly give no basis for claiming aid effectiveness in terms of gdp growth the intention in this note is to interpret the results which are assumed to be valid this is made possible by the fact that the authors have helpfully provided the full input set of mean values derived from the raw data from this it is possible to calculate the gdp aid relationship for each country for the second and third period the procedure for deriving these relationships is as follows for each country the mean values of the time series of gdp and aid are extracted from the data for i 960 70 and for i 970 80 using i 960 70 as the base the signs of the change in the levels of the gdp and aid mean values between periods are recorded this is repeated for i980 4 with i970 80 mean values as the base the relationship between the two signs is an indication of the effect of aid on gdp in the period in which the change in levels is effected thus in the case of an increase in aid being combined with a decrease in gdp the latter must have fallen relatively to the former and aid effectiveness is negative mutatis mutandis for the other three sign combinations thus generating the appropriate gdp aid relationship for each country in each period a frequency distribution of the four sign combinations relating to the full sample is presented in table i since the signs of the changes in the levels of gdp and aid are derived by making explicit the arithmetic relationship implicit in the data they form a valid base from which to draw conclusions without requiring any test of

institutional reform and technological practice the case of electricity this article proposes a framework for categorizing possible interrelations between technological and institutional change and applies this framework to the case of the restructuring of the electricity sector it is argued that there is a need for coherence between institutions and technological practice so as to safeguard the satisfactory functioning of electricity infrastructure the identification of possible incoherences between institutions and technological practice allows for a better understanding of the potential drivers for change and the evolutionary processes of which they may be part this article attempts to elaborate the nature of this co evolution in somewhat more detail using specific levels of analysis that are exemplified in a four level model in the case of the restructuring of the electricity sector the institutional framework has changed from a public utility oriented towards a market oriented system however the technological practice remained unchanged a system oriented approach that relies on centralized planning control and operation this discrepancy between institutions and technological practice leads to significant frictions in the functioning of the electricity sector but it also offers opportunities for innovation in order to make liberalization a success it might be necessary to stimulate certain technical developments i e distributed generation and intelligent networks

the dynamic implications of foreign aid and its variability abstract the paper examines the effects of aid and its volatility on consumption investment and the structure of production in the context of an intertemporal two sector general equilibrium model calibrated using data for aid dependent countries in africa a permanent flow of aid mainly finances consumption rather than investment consistent with the historical failure of aid inflows to translate into sustained growth large aid flows are associated with higher real exchange rates and smaller tradable sectors because aid is a substitute for tradable consumption aid volatility results in substantial welfare losses providing a motivation for recent discussions of aid architecture stressing the need for greater predictability of aid these results are also consistent with evidence from cross country regressions of manufactured exports presented later in the paper

do large capital inflows hinder competitiveness the dutch disease in ethiopia this article investigates whether large inflows of foreign aid and remittances have had a damaging impact on the ethiopian real exchange rate rer we improve the current empirical literature by i compiling a unique quarterly dataset to provide a larger sample size and enable the modelling of important intra year dynamics which should lead to better model specifications ii providing a new empirical approach unobserved components uc to test the dutch disease hypothesis and iii using several cointegration approaches to further test the robustness of our conclusions our results suggest that there are two main long run determinants of the rer in ethiopia trade openness is found to be correlated with rer depreciations while a positive shock to the terms of trade tends to appreciate the rer foreign aid is not found to have a statistically significant impact while there is only weak evidence that remittances are associated with rer appreciations the lack of empirical support for the dutc

income effects and paradoxes in the theory of international trade every field in economics has its paradoxes phenomena which initially are thought to confound economic sense but ultimately come to be better understood the field of international trade can claim its fair share the examples of the metzler paradox wherein a tariff fails to provide protection or that of immerising growth wherein a country suffers a loss in welfare despite an improvement in production possibilities come easily to mind more recently a reexamination of the transfer problem in the context of many country trade or of tax distortions has revealed possibilities for donor countries to gain or transfer recipients to lose results which would be considered so paradoxical in standard treatments as to be ruled out by stability arguments behind each of the examples just cited lies a rational explanation in which income effects prove crucial in supporting a paradoxical outcome in some situations the potential for paradox rests on the possibility of income redistribution nationally or internationally when tastes differ among the various trading participants paradox becomes impossible if tastes at the margin are identical in other instances income redistribution is not the crucial mechanism and paradoxical outcomes may occur even if all traders possess the same taste patterns all cases share the property that paradoxes can arise only if the terms of trade are sufficiently disturbed substitution effects high values of which serve to dampen the required adjustment of prices to a market disturbance thus work to prevent paradoxical outcomes in the first section of this paper i focus on those issues for which income effects are associated with income redistribution especially the analysis of tariffs and transfers in markets that initially are free of taxes or other distortions in the second section i analyse an issue for which income redistribution is no longer the central ingredient the welfare consequences of growth a standard technique in game theory allows for a reinterpretation of the growth case to reveal the fundamental connection between a wide variety of standard two country results in the theory of international trade and the possibility of paradoxes in the three agent transfer problem i would therefore argue that the three agent transfer literature has wider applicability than is commonly perceived in the final section i analyse briefly the frequently encountered argument that some instances of paradoxical welfare loss can be avoided by optimal tariff policy i wish to thank isaias coelho for helpful conversations makoto yano for stimulating my interest in the transfer problem with many agents and j peter neary for comments on an earlier draft useful suggestions were also received at seminar presentations at the institute for international economic studies in stockholm and the london school of economics research support was provided by the national science foundation grants ses 78o6159 and ses 8309386 i the role of substitution effects in transfer paradoxes with more than two commodities and agents is discussed by de meza 1983

the magnitude of the impact of a shift from coal to gas under a carbon price we seek to evaluate the extent of the pass through of increased fuel and carbon costs to wholesale prices with a shift of generation from coal fired to gas fired plants modelling of australia s national electricity market in 2035 is undertaken using australian energy market operator assumptions for fuel costs capital costs and demand forecasts an electricity market simulation package plexos which uses deterministic linear programming techniques and transmission and generating plant data is used to optimize the power system and determine the least cost dispatch of generating resources to meet a given demand we find that wholesale market prices increase due to the full pass through of the increased costs of gas over coal as an input fuel and the carbon price in addition we find that wholesale prices increase by more than the pass through of fuel and carbon costs because of the fact that generators can charge infra marginal rents and engage in strategic behaviour to maximize their profits

concentration in the european electricity industry the internal market as solution abstract this article offers an analysis of the present competitive and regulatory framework of the european electricity sector and the results achieved with the liberalisation process considering the reactions of incumbents to the liberalisation the focus in this work is mainly on the problem of market concentration in the sector the new trends toward the creation of national champions as well as recent mergers between gas suppliers and electricity producers raise serious concerns about abuses of market power and risk of future collusion in particular the strategic linkage of existing markets and the expansion into new ones are analyzed in the light of the multimarket contact theory considering investment in interconnection among member states the internal market issue is investigated as a solution to the risks coming from liberalisation

tax morale in latin america in the tax compliance literature there is a lack of empirical evidence on the degree of tax morale in developing countries as a novelty this paper focuses thus on latin america analysing tax morale as a dependent variable and searching for factors that systematically affect tax morale working with the two data sets latinobarometro and world values survey our findings indicate that there is a significant correlation between tax morale and the size of shadow economy furthermore people who said they knew have heard about practised tax avoidance have a significantly lower tax morale than others looking at individuals perception of reasons for tax evasion we found that the tax burden lacking honesty and corruption are seen as the main factors we observed a significantly lower tax morale in south america mexico than in the central american caribbean area furthermore trust in the president and the officials the belief that other individuals obey the law and a pro democratic attitude have a significant positive effect on tax morale

trade capital mobility and tax competition this paper examines a system of governments national state or local that finance public expenditures with taxes on mobile capital e g a property tax unlike previous research on tax competition explicit consideration is given to the general equilibrium determination of the prices at which goods are traded between regions the analysis identifies inefficiencies in government behavior that are not apparent in models in which the terms of trade are exogenously given capital taxation is shown to create an inefficient distribution of public good outputs across regions accompanied by an inefficient pattern of trade a model is presented in which the chosen levels of public good outputs differ across regions containing identical residents and production possibilities there is a wasteful diversity of public good supplies

the cost of reducing co2 emissions integrating abatement technologies into economic modeling we explore two methods of incorporating bottom up abatement cost estimates into top down modeling an economy wide method and a sector specific method carbon emissions generally depend on technology and scale given the technology options abatement is possible without a substantial reduction in scale otherwise the change must come purely through a reduction in demand our analysis shows that the cost of environmental policy is considerably overestimated by top down models if a bottom up abatement cost curve is not included using the data for the swiss economy we demonstrate two techniques of representing an abatement function explicitly in a computable general equilibrium model a traditional and a hybrid discrete technology modeling approach the results suggest that the current climate policy in switzerland will not be able to move the economy towards the required 10 co2 reduction both approaches provide virtually the same results when the calibration process is precisely executed which contradicts the results of previous studies

ownership unbundling in electricity distribution the case of the netherlands this paper addresses the merits of ownership unbundling of distribution networks as exemplified in the case of the netherlands in essence this problem concerns the question of whether the operation and management of electricity distribution networks in this country will evolve into a market driven commodity business or remain a genuine public utility task in order to deal with this problem a framework is developed that enables the classification of different institutional regimes depending on the nature of the institutional regime this case of the netherlands illustrates how certain aspects of the liberalisation of the electricity sector can become vitally important to the continuing process of restructuring

foreign aid tariffs and nontraded private or public goods abstract the possibility of transfer paradoxes or immiserizing growth in tariff ridden small open developing countries with a nontraded goods sector is analysed in four models a short run sector specific factor model a dual economy model capital is mobile between some but not all sectors a long run model factors are mobile between all sectors and a model with public goods several results of the received literature on transfer paradoxes and or immiserizing growth in distorted small open economies are generalized to nontraded private and public goods allowing for intersectoral factor mobility or immobility

price determination in the eu ets market theory and econometric analysis with market fundamentals abstract we investigate the price determination of the european union emission allowance eua of the european union emissions trading scheme eu ets we postulate an uncertain permit price and risk averse firms which have the possibility to hedge in the forward market the firms produce final goods abate their emissions and trade permits in the permit market the dependence of the equilibrium permit price on exogenous variables is studied in a permit market model we test our theoretical findings with empirical data from 2005 to 2010 in the eu ets market we use daily forward prices of eua as our dependent variable we use several econometric models with multiple stationary time series to discover that there is a strong relationship between the fundamentals such as german electricity prices and gas and coal prices with the price of eua we find that the eua forward price depends on fundamentals especially on the price of electricity as well as on the gas coal difference in a statistically significant way

firm specific impacts of co2 prices on the stock market value of the spanish power industry abstract european union carbon emissions allowances eua price fluctuations can affect electricity companies stock market values as these oscillations may change firms profitability and thus investors decisions this outcome can differ not only contingent on the eu ets phase but also on firms generation mix moreover stock markets may react differently to eua increases in comparison to decreases thus asymmetrically by using daily data from january 2008 to july 2014 this article analyses long run equilibrium relations and short run interactions between the aggregated electricity industry stock market returns and eua price changes moreover we test if the relationship between eua price variations and electricity stock returns is asymmetric and if the carbon price effect and the asymmetry are power firm specific adding to earlier studies we initially provide an inspection of the individual impact of eu ets phase ii and on going phase iii followed by a comparative analysis between power firms which core activity relies on renewable energy sources and those whose sources are fundamentally non renewable ones a statistically significant positive long run impact of eu ets on the aggregated power sector stock market return is found concerning phase ii and works asymmetrically moreover evidence is provided demonstrating that asymmetry and eua effects are power firm specific

how much climate policy has cost for oecd countries abstract high economic cost of climate policy has attracted critical debate since the kyoto protocol however reliable empirical evidence of the abatement cost of green house gases across countries remains scant in this study we estimate the average yearly green house gas abatement costs per capita for a panel of 28 oecd countries in years 1990 2015 the marginal abatement costs are estimated using a novel data driven approach based on convex quantile regression compared to traditional frontier estimation methods the quantile approach takes into account a broader set of abatement options and is more robust to inefficiency noise and heteroscedasticity in empirical data the comparison of oecd countries shows that the actual abatement cost per capita has been very modest much lower than predicted in the late 1990s this result has profound policy implications calling for more ambitious climate change mitigation strategy in the future

windfall profits in the power sector during phase iii of the eu ets interplay and effects of renewables and carbon prices abstract since power utilities were originally grandfathered into the eu ets by way of a free allocation of carbon emission allowances eua the issue of windfall profits accruing to producers with carbon intensive generation portfolios has been the subject of critical analysis one of the chief aims of the switch to a predominantly auction based allocation system at the onset of phase iii of the eu ets was to negate the incidence of windfall profits the following analysis examines the merits of this policy aim drawing on economic theory of power markets a linear optimisation model covering the electricity market of the eu member states is deployed to investigate this question scenarios reflecting developments over a medium term horizon 10 years are developed with which carbon prices are endogenously determined their effects on the contribution margins of producers in the member states are subsequently evaluated the overall findings indicate that the incidence of windfall profits in the power sector remains prevalent in the overwhelming majority of eu countries the analysis suggests that the carbon intensiveness of the respective generation fleet is not the deciding factor as to whether producers earn windfall profits but rather the fundamental generation structure of the power plant fleet the results raise questions about the capacity of the current eu ets regime to provide the desired decarbonising effect on power producers generation portfolios in european power markets

taxation of asset income in the presence of a world securities market abstract this paper examines a capm model of world security prices in which governments recognize their ability to influence international security prices via their tax treatment of foreign and domestic investors in this model governments have the incentive to set tax rates such that investors tend to specialize in domestic securities and to restrict net capital flows between countries each country does this to increase the utility of domestic residents taking as given the tax policies of other governments but the net outcome is a reduction in world efficiency and likely a reduction in the utility of all investors

modeling the price dynamics of co2 emission allowances abstract in this paper we analyze the short term spot price behavior of carbon dioxide co 2 emission allowances of the new eu wide co 2 emissions trading system eu ets after reviewing the stylized facts of this new class of assets we investigate several approaches for modeling the returns of emission allowances due to different phases of price and volatility behavior in the returns we suggest the use of markov switching and ar garch models for stochastic modeling we examine the approaches by conducting an in sample and out of sample forecasting analysis and by comparing the results to alternative approaches our findings strongly support the adequacy of the models capturing characteristics like skewness excess kurtosis and in particular different phases of volatility behavior in the returns

female labour force participation and economic growth in the south mediterranean countries abstract we investigate the relationship between female labour force participation and economic growth in the south mediterranean countries with a two step methodology of econometric exercise and general equilibrium modelling econometric estimations on female labour participation confirm the u shaped function and the presence of region specific barriers estimations have been employed in a satellite manner to a general equilibrium model for the simulation of i changes in female labour force participation as a result of income developments and ii lowering of region specific barriers to female labour force participation the results suggest that while the first may lead to marginally lower economic growth the second may have a considerable positive impact on growth

review of taiwan s climate policy after copenhagen abstract the copenhagen accord in 2009 initiated new opportunities for international cooperation in reducing greenhouse gas ghg emissions the purpose of this study was to review taiwan s current climate policy and in response to the copenhagen accord to deliberate this policy in the light of new strategic thinking the study proposes a two stage approach with a dividing line in 2020 in the first stage from now until 2020 strategy should be based on cost constraints with a suggested reduction cost below 60 t co 2 and implementation of domestic ghg emissions trading scheme and reduction strategies in the second stage from 2020 and beyond action by taiwan should accord with international cooperative actions to link its domestic emissions trading scheme with the international carbon market

booming sector and de industrialisation in a small open economy this paper presents a theoretical analysis of the dutch disease the phenomenon whereby a boom in one traded goods sector squeezes porfitability in other traded goods sectors both by directly bi

the kyoto protocol and developing countries abstract under the kyoto protocol the world s wealthier countries assumed binding commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions the agreement requires these countries to consider ways to minimize adverse effects on developing countries of these actions transmitted through trade using a general equilibrium model of the world economy we find that adverse effects fall mainly on energy exporting countries for some even greater than on countries that are assuming commitments removing existing fuel taxes and subsidies and using international permit trading would greatly reduce the adverse impacts and also reduce economic impacts on the countries taking on commitments another approach preferential tariff reduction for developing countries would benefit many developing countries but would not target those most adversely affected if instead oecd countries directly compensated developing countries for losses the required annual financial transfer would be on the order of 25 billion 1995 us in 2010

the eu decarbonisation roadmap 2050 what way to walk we carry out a detailed cge computable general equilibrium analysis of the eu decarbonisation roadmap 2050 on a macroeconomic and on a sectoral level herein we study a reference scenario that implements existing eu policies as well as 3 unilateral and 3 global climate action scenarios we identify global climate action with international emissions trading and the full equalization of co2 prices across all eu sectors as a reasonable policy option to avoid additional costs of the decarbonisation roadmap to a large extent this policy option may include cdm clean development mechanism in the sense of where flexibility in an extended form if there are countries without emissions caps moreover we identify diverse sectoral effects in terms of output investment emissions and international competitiveness we conclude that the successful realization of the eu decarbonisation roadmap probably requires a wise and joint consideration of technology policy design and sectoral aspects

rents in the european power sector due to carbon trading abstract the european union emissions trading scheme eu ets has imposed a price on the allowances for co2 emissions of electricity companies integrating this allowance price into the price of electricity earns a rent for companies who have received these allowances for free during phase i 2005 2007 rents corresponding to the aggregate value of allocated allowances amounted to roughly 13 billion per year however due to the specific price setting mechanism in electricity markets true rents were considerably higher this is due to the fact that companies also that have not received any allowances gain additional infra marginal rents to the extent that their variable costs are below the new market price after inclusion of the allowance price producers with low carbon emissions and low marginal costs thus also benefit substantially from carbon pricing this paper develops a methodology to determine the specific interaction of the imposition of such a co2 constraint and the price setting mechanism in the electricity sector under the assumption of marginal cost pricing in a liberalized european electricity market the article thus provides an empirical estimate of the true total rents of power producers during phase i of the eu ets 2005 2007 the eu ets generated in phase i additional rents in excess of 19 billion per year for electricity producers these transfers are distributed very unevenly between different electricity producers in a second step the paper assesses the impact of switching from free allocation to an auctioning of allowances in 2013 we show that such a switch to auctioning will continue to create additional infra marginal rents for certain producers and will leave the electricity sector as a whole better off than before the introduction of the eu ets

international redistribution of income summary how do international policies on aid trade and factor movements affect the international distribution of income we calculate the impact by world decile of the actual level of aid flows and the effect on income of merchandise trade restrictions by high income countries we find that aid s distributional impact is equality enhancing extremely small in terms of changes in inequality measures but of some importance for the lowest decile of the distribution we also find that some of this impact is counteracted by lost potential income in the lower deciles from merchandise trade barriers imposed by high income countries

the costs of the kyoto protocol in the european union we estimate reference co2 emission projections in the european union and quantify the economic impacts of the kyoto commitment on member states we consider the case where each eumember individually meets a co 2 emissions target applying a country wide cap and trade system to meet the target but without trade among countries we use a version of the mit emissions prediction and policy analysis eppa model here disaggregated to separately include 9 european community countries and commercial and household transportation sectors we compare our results with that of four energy economic models that have provided detailed analyses of european climate change policy in the absence of specific additional climate policy measures the eppa reference projections of carbon emissions increase by 14 from 1990 levels the eu wide target under the kyoto protocol to the framework convention on climate change is a reduction in emissions to 8 below 1990 levels eppa emissions projections are similar to other recent modeling results but there are underlying differences in energy and carbon intensities among the projections if eucountries were to individually meet the euallocation of the community wide carbon cap specified in the kyoto protocol we find using eppa that carbon prices vary from 91 in the united kingdom to 385 in denmark welfare costs range from 0 6 to 5 r 2002 elsevier science ltd all rights reserved

armington elasticities for energy policy modeling evidence from four european countries elasticities of substitution among imports and competing domestic production armington elasticities play an important role in computable general equilibrium cge assessments of energy and climate policy this paper provides estimates of armington elasticities for 15 commodity groups in four european countries since armington elasticities are found to be rather low on average researchers may want to reconsider the device of using high values of armington elasticities in cge models to avoid unrealistic competitiveness effects or emission leakage rates associated with energy or carbon taxes or other forms of energy related regulation estimated elasticities tend to be higher in the case of machinery and other investment goods than in the case of primary products ores and chemicals as well as consumer goods

political institutions and central bank independence a cross country analysis using three quantitative measures of central bank independence we apply ols and tsls regression methods to investigate the possible correlation between political liberty political instability and central bank independence for a sample of western democracies and highly democratic developing countries we show that cukierman s legal independence index is positively correlated with political freedom and regime political stability it is negatively correlated with party political stability for a sample of developing countries that excludes dictatorships we show that a special index of legal central bank autonomy is positively associated with political freedom and political stability finally we observe that for the same sample of nations the turnover index of central bank independence is not sensitive to our political variables

the proposals for a european tax on co2 and their implications for intercountry distribution this paper analyzes the advantages andimplications of the implementation of aeuropean tax on carbon dioxide emissions as anown resource of the eu and it focuses on itseffects on intercountry distribution incontrast to a harmonized tax which would onlyhave distributive effects within each memberstate a tax collected at european scale wouldalso have important distributive effects amongdifferent countries these effects would alsodepend on the use of tax revenues the paperinvestigates through a simple empiricalanalysis the distributive effects among themember states of three tax models a pureco2 model a 50 50 energy co2model and a co2 model with a burden onnuclear power

an assessment of a proposed ets in australia by using the monash green model abstract using the monash green model and a database containing detailed energy sectors this paper evaluates the effects of a proposed emissions trading scheme on the australian economy and the emissions levels the simulation results indicate that the price of carbon permits has to increase from a 4 1 per tonne in 2015 through a 13 1 per tonne in 2020 to a 41 3 per tonne in 2030 to achieve a target of 28 below the 2005 level in 2030 the main buyers of permits would be the agricultural sector black coal electricity sector and brown coal electricity sector compared to the business as usual scenario australia s gdp is projected to be 0 85 lower in 2020 and 1 6 lower in 2030 household welfare measured in terms of equivalent variations will increase due to compensations provided by the government the results also lend strong support towards the transition to renewable energy the stylised model was adapted to inform the results of the full model

toward a theory of regulation for developing countries following jean jacques laffont s lead the efficient operation and expansion of infrastructures in developing countries is crucial for growth and poverty reduction however recent reforms aimed at improving the performance of these sectors have had limited success evidence suggests that in many instances this was because the traditional regulatory theory relied on by policymakers was not suitable for the institutional context in developing countries this article surveys more recent theoretical work focusing on problems with regulation in these countries at the heart of the survey is the work of jean jacques laffont who in the last decade of his life set about developing a theoretical framework for regulation in developing countries we consider the implications of his work which focused on the key institutional limitations faced in developing countries we then discuss where experience suggests that there are important omissions from this modeling bringing in extensions and alternative approaches pursued by other authors we conclude by summarizing the key ways in which regulatory policy will be different when institutions are weak overall we find that an understanding of the institutional context and its implications are crucial when designing a regulatory framework for developing countries

the threat of rent extraction in a resource constrained future abstract ecological economists aim to transform our economic institutions so that society can flourish within planetary boundaries the central message of this article is that private rent extraction forms a key barrier to the realisation of that goal i define rent as an economic reward which is sustained through control of assets that cannot be quickly and widely replicated and which exceeds proportionate compensation for the labour of the recipient i argue that unless we close opportunities for rent extraction and socialise unavoidable rents our governments will be compelled to pursue output growth regardless of its environmental consequences in order to prevent spiralling inequality and unemployment the positive proposition in this article is that the concept of rent can help us to identify and build democratic support for the institutional transformations necessary to prepare for a resource constrained future measures to reduce and redistribute rentier power could be emancipatory for the poorest in society whilst making more feasible many proposals that have been advocated already in this journal including reduced working hours and resource caps by contrast if environmental protections are introduced before opportunities for private rent extraction are closed we could see intensified rent seeking asset price bubbles poverty and economic insecurity

international trade with lumpy countries this paper explores the implications for the pattern of international trade of differences among regions within countries what we call lumpiness if factors of production are sufficiently unevenly distributed across regions then the pattern of trade of the country as a whole may depart from what it would have been had factors been evenly distributed thus lumpiness in the geographical distribution of factors can be a determinant of trade we show in particular that if other determinants of trade are absent then a country will tend to export the good that intensively uses its lumpier i e more unevenly distributed factor

implications of the international reduction pledges on long term energy system changes and costs in china and india this paper analyses the impact of postponing global mitigation action on abatement costs and energy systems changes in china and india it compares energy system changes and mitigation costs from a global and two national energy system models under two global emission pathways with medium likelihood of meeting the 2 c target a least cost pathway and a pathway that postpones ambitious mitigation action starting from the copenhagen accord pledges both pathways have similar 2010 2050 cumulative greenhouse gas emissions the analysis shows that postponing mitigation action increases the lock in in less energy efficient technologies and results in much higher cumulative mitigation costs the models agree that carbon capture and storage ccs and nuclear energy are important mitigation technologies while the shares of biofuels and other renewables vary largely over the models differences between india and china with respect to the timing of emission reductions and the choice of mitigation measures relate to differences in projections of rapid economic change capital stock turnover and technological development furthermore depending on the way it is implemented climate policy could increase indoor air pollution but it is likely to provide synergies for energy security these relations should be taken into account when designing national climate policies

a review on promoting share of renewable energy by green trading mechanisms in power system abstract in order to promote the development of renewable energy power generation many countries have issued corresponding policies meanwhile some green trading mechanisms have been implemented in power industry and this paper has mainly presented a review on promoting share of renewable energy by green trading mechanisms in power system with a focus on promotion effects of three mechanisms feed in tariff renewable portfolio standard and emission trading scheme apart from a review summaries comparisons and an outlook for future study are also presented our review suggests that feed in tariff and renewable portfolio standard can effectively increase the share of renewable energy power and lead to renewable resource diversity in addition emission trading also provides stimulus for development of renewable energy besides mitigation of carbon emission

a literature based multi criteria evaluation of the eu ets abstract this article reviews the existing literature on the european union emission trading scheme eu ets focusing on empirical ex post research since the end of the first period 2007 the literature is presented through a multi criteria evaluation concerning environmental effectiveness despite over allocation during the first period abatement is estimated between 2 5 and 5 trade driven carbon leakage was not observed even if long term economic models predict divergent leakage estimates for certain at risk sectors the abatement target was likely to be below an economically efficient level but was reached in a fairly cost effective way even if free allocation gave rise to several distortional effects equity concerns were manifold and constitute a major drawback to the policy finally institutional feasibility can be considered positive in that the eu ets passed the european legislative process unlike the previously proposed eu wide carbon tax

marginal abatement costs of co2 emission reductions geographical flexibility and concrete ceilings an assessment using the poles model abstract the kyoto protocol envisage the setting up of flexibility mechanisms allowing annex b countries to fulfil their commitments to reducing greenhouse gases with respect for the principle of economic efficiency the current negotiations relate in particular to the possibility of setting up a system of tradable emissions permits for annex b countries and also of introducing ceilings to trade this paper analyses the stakes and economic potential of adopting this instrument both for those countries that made commitments in kyoto and for developing countries it is based on a formal approach that allows for a consistent framework of analysis the emission permit market is in fact simulated on the basis of a reference scenario and of marginal abatement cost curves and estimated by the poles model after analysing these marginal abatement cost curves and comparing them with those produced by other models we explore two different configurations for a competitive market a market limited to the annex b countries and a world market the results produced by the model show that widening the market to include developing countries is more effective than the annex b market solution it reduces the cost of implementing kyoto for oecd countries and at the same time allows the countries of the south to benefit from selling the permits this research also shows that introducing restrictions on exchanges for annex b countries could have a counter productive redistribution effect with the ethical argument that underlies that particular measure

impact of the kyoto protocol on the iberian electricity market a scenario analysis this paper presents an assessment of the impact of the kyoto protocol on the iberian electricity market during two periods the first phase 2005 2007 and the second phase 2008 2012 a market equilibrium model is used in order to analyze different conditions faced by generation companies scenarios involving co2 emission prices hydro conditions demand fuel prices and renewable generation are considered this valuation will show the significance of co2 emission prices as regards spanish and portuguese electricity prices generation mix utilities profits and the total co2 emissions furthermore the results will illustrate how energy policies implemented by regulators are critical for spain and portugal in order to mitigate the negative impact of the kyoto protocol in conclusion the iberian electricity system will not be able to reach the kyoto targets except in very favorable conditions co2 emission prices over 15 ton and the implementation of very efficient energy policies

aid nontraded goods and the transfer paradox in small countries this paper constructs a model of the transfer paradox for a small open economy with nontraded goods it demonstrates that increased production of nontraded goods can change their domestic price so as to offset the otherwise beneficial effect of aid and under certain conditions to create a transfer paradox even in a small country the model is estimated with time series data for 44 aid dependent countries for the period 1970 90 the results support the model and show that the nontraded goods expansion effect is more likely to cause immiserization than harry g johnson s 1967 tariff distorting export displacement effect

tied aid and the paradoxes of donor enrichment and recipient impoverishment it is part of received doctrine that in a two country world without hindrance of commodity taxes or other distortions and with market stability assured international transfers necessarily harm the donor and benefit the recipient 2 however in the case of most non private international aid those conditions fail donors often require that aid be spent in a manner not closely related to private preferences in the recipient countries indeed not closely related to any well behaved preferences and they normally finance the aid by means of distorting taxation hence one cannot rule out by appeal to standard theorems the possibility that aid perversely leaves the donor better off and or the recipient worse off let us say that aid is tied in the recipient if it is spent inefficiently in terms of individual preferences and that aid is tied in the donor if it is financed inefficiently thus whether aid is tied is a question of how it is spent or financed it is not a question of the numeraire in terms of which aid is accounted nor of the form in which it is offered 3 evidently the definition of tying is uncommonly broad for example aid may be tied in the recipient not because the donor attaches strings but because the government of the recipient is incompetent or unrepresentative moreover the definition is relevant however the aid is applied whether to private or public goods whether to consumption or investment goods we follow the literature on the transfer problem in assuming that aid is spent on private consumption goods like hospital services and powdered milk this is a matter of convenience and continuity only 4 in the present note we seek to rework the economics of foreign aid under novel assumptions in particular allowance will be made for the possibility that aid is tied in whole or in part in the donor or in the recipient it will be verified that the donor may benefit and the recipient suffer and that these outcomes are com

factor movements and commodity trade as complements abstract several models are presented in which factor mobility leads to an increase in the volume of world trade the models share the common characteristic that the basis for trade is something other than differences in relative factor endowments these alternative bases for trade include returns to scale imperfect competition production and factor taxes and differences in production technology taken together the models suggest a more general idea the widely held notion that trade in goods and factors are substitutes is in fact a rather special result which is a general characteristic only of factor proportions models

energy system impacts and policy implications of the european intended nationally determined contribution and low carbon pathway to 2050 in march 2015 the european union eu submitted to the united nations framework convention on climate change unfccc the intended nationally determined contribution indc in view of the paris conference of parties cop21 the binding target of lowering domestic greenhouse gases emissions by at least 40 by 2030 compared to 1990 levels coupled with long term decarbonisation goals will have profound energy system macroeconomic and policy implications eu targets are qualitatively discussed and quantitatively assessed with the simulation of a reference and an alternative decarbonisation scenario to 2050 simulations are carried out with the technology rich primes energy system model and the gem e3 computable general equilibrium model restructuring of the eu energy system induces changes in the energy mix and production with small effects on the eu gdp 0 4 in 2030 and 1 in 2050 compared to the reference scenario energy efficiency improvements increasing penetration of renewables fuel switching towards natural gas and technical progress in process related to emissions abatement are identified as essential options to the eu indc implementation the electrification of final energy demand particularly transport electrification complemented with decarbonised power supply is found to play a critical role in the successful transition towards a low carbon economy by 2050

the economic effects of climate change greenhouse gas emissions are fundamental both to the world s energy system and to its food production the production of co2 the predominant gas implicated in climate change is intrinsic to fossil fuel combustion specifically thermal energy is generated by breaking the chemical bonds in the carbohydrates oil coal and natural gas and oxidizing the components to co2 and h2o one cannot have cheap energy without carbon dioxide emissions similarly methane ch4 emissions an important greenhouse gas in its own right are necessary to prevent the build up of hydrogen in anaerobic digestion and decomposition one cannot have beef mutton dairy or rice without methane emissions climate change is the mother of all externalities larger more complex and more uncertain than any other environmental problem the sources of greenhouse gas emissions are more diffuse than any other environmental problem every company every farm every household emits some greenhouse gases the effects are similarly pervasive weather affects agriculture energy use health and many aspects of nature which in turn affects everything and everyone the causes and consequences of climate change are very diverse and those in low income countries who contribute least to climate change are most vulnerable to its effects climate change is also a long term problem some greenhouse gases have an atmospheric life time measured in tens of thousands of years the quantities of emissions involved are enormous in 2000 carbon dioxide emissions alone and excluding land use change were 24 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide tco2

regulation competition and liberalization in many countries throughout the world regulators are struggling to determine whether and how to introduce competition into regulated industries this essay examines the complexities involved in the liberalization process while stressing the importance of case specific analyses this essay distinguishes liberalization policies that generally are procompetitive from corresponding anticompetitive liberalization policies

fair trade and harmonization of climate change policies in europe abstract in march 2000 the european commission presented a green paper on greenhouse gas emissions trading within europe supporting implementation of a community wide scheme in which the design and regulation of all essential elements would be harmonized at the community level the present paper analyzes economic arguments used to justify such a coordinated scenario showing these arguments to be based on misleading rhetoric about fair trade and harmonization diverse allocations of emissions allowances across member states are justified in theory in practice too no empirical evidence or model based results demonstrate that an uncoordinated european trading scheme would adversely affect competitiveness to any significant extent or substantially increase industrial relocations

first evidence of asymmetric cost pass through of eu emissions allowances examining wholesale electricity prices in germany abstract we test the hypothesis that rising prices of emission allowances have a stronger impact on wholesale electricity prices than falling prices asymmetric cost pass through using an autoregressive distributed lag model we confirm this hypothesis for the german market

the hedge value of international emissions trading under uncertainty this paper estimates the value of international emissions trading focusing on a here to fore neglected component its value as a hedge against uncertainty much analysis has been done of the kyoto protocol and other potential international greenhouse gas mitigation policies comparing the costs of achieving emission targets with and without trading these studies often show large cost reductions for all parties under trading compared to a no trading case we investigate the welfare gains of including emissions trading in the presence of uncertainty in economic growth rates using both a partial equilibrium model based on marginal abatement cost curves and a computable general equilibrium model we find that the hedge value of international trading is small relative to its value in reallocating emissions reductions when the burden sharing scheme does not resemble a least cost allocation we also find that the effects of pre existing tax distortions and terms of trade dominate the hedge value of trading we conclude that the primary value of emissions trading in international agreements is as a burden sharing or wealth transfer mechanism and should be judged accordingly

aid non traded goods and growth we examine the effects of foreign aid in a small recipient country with two traded goods one non traded good and two factors learning by doing and intersectoral knowledge spillovers contribute to endogenous growth we obtain two main results first a permanent increase in untied aid raises or lowers the growth rate if and only if the non traded good is more capital intensive or effective labour intensive than the operating traded good second a permanent increase in untied aid raises welfare if the non traded good is more capital intensive than the operating traded good otherwise it may raise or lower welfare jel classification f43 o41

tax competition tax exporting and higher government choice of tax instruments for local governments abstract this paper presents a theoretical model with tax exporting due to external ownership of a fraction of the land in each local jurisdiction there are n local jurisdictions in a metropolitan area n 1 and many metropolitan areas in a world economy the paper examines the usage of business property taxes and source based wage taxes by local jurisdictions first in the presence of and then in the absence of residence based lump sum taxes and how this depends on and n the paper then examines the choice of a world national or state government as to whether to allow local metropolitan or sub metropolitan governments to use business property taxes wage taxes or both assuming that the local governments choose the actual tax rates

immiserizing transfers from abroad abstract this paper shows that an international transfer payment may paradoxically immiserize the recipient country or increase the donor country s welfare even when world markets are stable despite the traditional view that such a paradox theoretically requires market instability to demonstrate this paradoxical possibility the paper extends the conventional trade theoretic analysis to admit exogenous distortions created by tax cum subsidies in domestic production or endogenous distortions due to additionality requirements imposed by the donor on the recipient this analysis of immiserizing transfers from abroad immediately suggests significant implications for important policy issues including the evaluation of real benefits from foreign aid

industrial output restriction and the kyoto protocol an input output approach with application to canada the objective of this paper is to assess the economic impacts of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by decreasing industrial output in canada to a level that will meet the target set out in the kyoto protocol the study uses an ecological economic input output model combining economic components valued in monetary terms with ecologic components ghg emissions expressed in physical terms economic and greenhouse gas emissions data for canada are computed in the same sectoral disaggregation three policy scenarios are considered the first one uses the direct emission coefficients to allocate the reduction in industrial output while the other two use the direct plus indirect emission coefficients in the first two scenarios the reduction in industrial sector output is allocated uniformly across sectors while it is allocated to the 12 largest emitting industries in the last one the estimated impacts indicate that the results vary with the different allocation methods the third policy scenario allocation to the 12 largest emitting sectors is the most cost effective of the three as the impacts of the kyoto protocol reduces gross domestic product by 3 1 compared to 24 and 8 1 in the first two scenarios computed economic costs should be considered as upper bounds because the model assumes immediate adjustment to the kyoto protocol and because flexibility mechanisms are not incorporated the resulting upper bound impact of the third scenario may seem to contradict those who claim that the kyoto protocol would place an unbearable burden on the canadian economy c 2008 elsevier b v all rights reserved

aid and sectoral growth evidence from panel data this article examines empirically the proposition that aid to poor countries is detrimental for external competitiveness giving rise to dutch disease type effects at the aggregate level aid is f

how competitive are eu electricity markets an assessment of ets phase ii this paper studies the interactions between electricity and carbon allowance prices in the year ahead energy markets of france germany united kingdom and the nordic countries during phase ii of the eu ets var and granger causality methods are used to analyze causal interfaces whereas the volatility of electricity prices is studied with basic and asymmetric ar garch models among the main results the marginal rate at which carbon prices feed into electricity prices is shown to be ca 135 in the eex and nord pool markets where electricity and carbon prices display bidirectional causality and 109 in the uk therefore generators in these markets internalized the cost of freely allotted emission allowances into their electricity prices considerably more than the proportionate increase in costs justified by effective carbon intensity moreover electricity prices in france are found to granger cause the carbon price this study also shows how european electricity prices are deeply linked to coal prices among other factors both in terms of levels and volatility regardless of the underlying fuel mix and that coal was marginally more profitable than gas for electricity generation eu policies aimed at increasing the carbon price are likely to be crucial in limiting the externalities involved in the transition to a low carbon system

coupling national and global models to explore policy impacts of ndcs abstract since the official submission of the national determined contributions ndcs under the paris agreement framework a set of studies attempted to assess the energy and economic impacts on ndcs by using large scale energy economy models both at the national and global level this paper presents a novel approach to quantify policy impacts of ndcs by combining a set of technology rich country level models for major economies with an economy wide global cge model the methodology enhances the credibility of global model based scenarios by complementing it with detailed representation of country level policy priorities and structural heterogeneities captured by national level models it also improves the consistency between national short to medium term policy plans with global long term climate objectives results indicate that energy efficiency improvements and increased penetration of res are the main contributors to emission reduction induced by ndcs the role of emission reduction options differentiates by country depending on national socio economic objectives energy resource endowment and climate policy ambition the paris pledges are found to be consistent with robust economic growth both in developed and in emerging economies ndcs result in a more labour intensive economy driven by res expansion while major clean energy manufacturers eu china have the potential to improve their balance of trade

marginal co2 cost pass through under imperfect competition in power markets abstract in line with economic theory carbon ets determines a rise in marginal cost equal to the carbon opportunity cost regardless of whether carbon allowances are allocated free of charge or not this paper aims at evaluating to what extent firms in imperfectly competitive markets will pass through into electricity prices the increase in cost by using the load duration curve approach and the dominant firm with competitive fringe model we show that the result is ambiguous the increase in price can be either lower or higher than the marginal co2 cost depending on several structural factors the degree of market concentration the available capacity whether there is excess capacity or not the power plant mix in the market and the power demand level peak vs off peak hours the empirical analysis of the italian context an emblematic case of imperfectly competitive market which can be split into four sub markets with different structural features provides a contribution supporting the model predictions market power therefore would determine a significant deviation from the full pass through rule but we cannot know the sign of this deviation a priori i e without before taking carefully into account the structural features of the power market

factor ownership taxes and specialization this paper examines the incentives of regions to levy source based capital taxes when the tax revenue is not needed to finance the regional public sector it is assumed that capital is completely mobile among regions but that labour is completely immobile since each region can produce the same two tradable goods using the same technology then differences in tax rates on capital will lead to some specialization if residents of one region own more of the nation s capital per person then these tax differences may be an equilibrium phenomenon regions with below average capital endowment per person will levy capital taxes to lower the cost of the capital they import even though these taxes lead to capital flight and specialization in the labour intensive good

energy supply security and geopolitics a european perspective the security of energy supply to the eu is examined in the context of two storylines markets and institutions exemplifies an economically and politically integrated multilateral world with effective institutions and markets regions and empires involves a world broken up in rival political and economic blocks competing for resources and markets via political economic and military power it is shown that these storylines have a significant impact on the development of the energy market on the way in which energy supply may be secured and on the effect and applicability of the several types of instruments available the current eu is geared towards enlargement and a deepening of economic integration based on the tenets of the post 1945 multilateral world system the present world tends towards regions and empires and suggests that the eu may have to reorient its energy security policy energy policy must become an integral part of eu external trade and foreign relations and security policy the eu should develop its own strategy actively investing in dialogues with producer countries in the persian gulf and africa and with russia sustainable prosperity and governance in these regions will support eu energy security

credible carbon policy the paper sets out the credibility problem in carbon policy provides a number of examples of non credibility in recent energy policy and identifies the costs of failing to address it the time inconsistency of carbon policy arising because of multiple objectives the irreversibility of energy investments and the scope for ex post reneging on ex ante commitments to set policy instruments such as carbon taxes or emission permits at appropriate levels is set in a conceptual framework analogies with monetary policy are drawn and a solution to the time inconsistency problem is proposed through the establishment of an energy carbon agency

welfare aspects of the transfer problem using the standard trade model with three countries and allowing for substitutability in both production and consumption this paper demonstrates that a country may gain by giving a transfer that the receiver may lose and that these two phenomena may appear at the same time this result is an extension of gale s example in a fixed coefficient model where he shows both transferer and transferee may become better off harming the third country and it is contrasted with the traditional welfare proposition whereby a giver is immiserized and a recipient is enriched

what happens to the relationship between eu allowances prices and stock market indices in europe abstract the stock market may reflect the economic conditions of an economy and a positive economic situation is expected to improve the companies profits which makes company shares more attractive since the expected dividends to shareholders will be larger theoretically higher economic activity leads to higher energy demand and consequently higher carbon emissions which give rise to higher eu allowances eua prices therefore the stock market and eua prices seem to be connected with causality going from the stock markets to eua prices this paper formally tests for it showing that the causality effectively runs from the stock market to the european climate exchange market furthermore the paper studies the effects of the evolution of european stock markets on the eua spot prices

international trade and capital mobility between diversified economies abstract this paper reconsiders and simplifies the theory of international trade with foreign investment while concentrating on significant gaps in the analysis of the globally diversified case where both countries of the two commodity two factor model remain incompletely specialized the analysis goes beyond previous literature by 1 deriving an important condition for stability of equilibrium 2 investigating the effects of import tariffs and foreign investment taxes on the international allocation of capital 3 examining the actual signs of optimal first best and other tariffs and taxes and 4 developing new and plausible conditions for existence of global diversification

aid and trade this paper surveys the recent theoretical and empirical literature that explores the relations between aid and trade and asks about the complementarity or substitution effects at work we distinguish between the effects of aid on trade flows and on trade policies of the donor as well as the recipient countries special focus is given on trade facilitation or aid for trade

estimating border tax evasion in mozambique abstract the relationship between border tax rates and evasion is examined for mozambique using the methodology developed by fisman and wei 2004 we find that high tax rates are associated with high levels of under reporting of import values and that tax rates have a strong and positive effect on tax evasion results also strongly confirm the presence of fraudulent classification of merchandise into lower taxed product categories finally analysis of the revenue implications of lower trade taxes finds that the revenue curve is quite flat but remains upward sloping with respect to the tax rate when only evasion is considered

pigou tiebout property taxation and the underprovision of local public goods abstract pigou s proposition that the use of distorting taxes rather than neutral head taxes reduces public service levels is examined in this paper a simple model with a national system of competing local governments is utilized to demonstrate that the use of a distorting property tax on mobile capital decreases the level of residential public services the case where public services are an intermediate producer good is also considered

the vermont common assets trust an institution for sustainable just and efficient resource allocation both private and public sectors have failed to adequately provide critical ecosystem goods and services or an equitable distribution of wealth and income to address this problem the vermont legislature is considering the creation of a vermont common assets trust vcat that would make the state s atmosphere aquifers and other resources created by nature or by society as a whole the common property of all vermonters present and future under the trust a board of trustees would have the legal obligation to manage these assets for the benefit of all vermonters including future generations this paper first explains why certain resources are likely to be managed more sustainably fairly and efficiently as common property than as private property it then discusses mechanisms for integrating assets into the trust estimates of potential revenue from a vcat suggest that it could eliminate the state budget deficit contribute to a better distribution of wealth and resources and help address critical ecological problems survey results suggest that a vcat is politically feasible the vcat promises to be an important pilot project that could later be scaled up to a national or global level

aid dutch disease and manufacturing growth abstract we examine the effects of aid on the growth of manufacturing using a methodology that exploits the variation within countries and across manufacturing sectors and corrects for possible reverse causality we find that aid inflows have systematic adverse effects on a country s competitiveness as reflected in the lower relative growth rate of exportable industries we provide some evidence suggesting that the channel for these effects is the real exchange rate appreciation caused by aid inflows we conjecture that this may explain in part why it is hard to find robust evidence that foreign aid helps countries grow

transfers the terms of trade and capital accumulation in the context of a two sector overlapping generations model it is demonstrated that a steady state transfer paradox may arise under commodity trade with stability and without distortions or bystanders the existence of the paradox is due to the effect of the transfer on world capital accumulation which is shown to always i e for any ranking of factor intensities and savings rates improve the donor s terms of trade transfers may also improve steady state welfare for both donor and recipient and produce paradoxical welfare results along the transition path la litterature en statique du commerce international a conclu que en l absence de distorsions ou de tierces parties les mouvements des termes d echange induits par les transferts ne peuvent pas etre suffisamment importants quand il y a stabilite walrasienne pour engendrer le paradoxe du transfert on a tire la conclusion de modeles dynamiques a un secteur que le paradoxe du transfert est possible mais en comptant sur la mobilite internationale du capital et sur les mouvements dans le niveau mondial du taux d interet plutot que sur les prix et les marches des biens dans un modele dynamique a deux secteurs ou les generations se chevauchent ce qui permet des effets a la fois statiques et intertemporels dans les termes d echange le commerce des biens peut engendrer un paradoxe du transfert en regime permanent quand il y a stabilite walrasienne sans distorsions et tierces parties l existence du paradoxe est attribuable a l effet du transfert sur l accumulation du capital qui toujours pour tout ordre des intensites de facteur et des taux d epargne ameliore les termes d echange du donneur les transferts peuvent aussi ameliorer le bien etre du donneur et du recipiendaire en regime permanent et produire des resultats paradoxaux de bien etre dans le sentier de transition

how emission certificate allocations distort fossil investments the german example despite political activities to foster a low carbon energy transition germany currently sees a considerable number of new coal power plants being added to its power mix there are several possible drivers for this dash for coal but it is widely accepted that windfall profits gained through free allocation of ets certificates play an important role yet the quantification of allocation related investment distortions has been limited to back of the envelope calculations and stylized models so far we close this gap with a numerical model integrating both germany s particular allocation rules and its specific power generation structure we find that technology specific new entrant provisions have substantially increased incentives to invest in hard coal plants red to natural gas at the time of the ets onset more precisely disproportionate windfall profits compared more than half the total capital costs of a hard coal plant moreover shorter periods of free allocations would not have turned investors favours towards the cleaner natural gas technology because of pre existing economic advantages for coal in contrast full auctioning of permits or a single best available technology benchmark would have made natural gas the predominant technology of choice