great expectations financialization and bank bailouts in democracies accelerating financialization and rising societal wealth have meant that democratic governments increasingly provide bailouts following banking crises using a new long run data set we show that despite frequent and virulent crises before world war ii bank bailouts to protect wealth were then exceptionally rare in recent decades by contrast governments have increasingly opted for extensive bailouts well before the major interventions of 2007 2009 we argue that this policy shift is the consequence of the great expectations of middle class voters overlooked in existing accounts associated with the growing financialization of wealth rising leverage and accumulating ex ante financial stabilization commitments by governments these expectations are suggestive of substantially altered policy preferences and political cleavages since the 1970s when severe banking crises returned as an important threat to middle class wealth this pressure from below has led elected governments to provide increasingly costly bailouts with no historical precedent

capital is back wealth income ratios in rich countries 1700 2010 how do aggregate wealth to income ratios evolve in the long run and why we address this question using 1970 2010 national balance sheets recently compiled in the top eight developed economies for the united states united kingdom germany and france we are able to extend our analysis as far back as 1700 we find in every country a gradual rise of wealth income ratios in recent decades from about 200 300 in 1970 to 400 600 in 2010 in effect today s ratios appear to be returning to the high values observed in europe in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries 600 700 this can be explained by a long run asset price recovery itself driven by changes in capital policies since the world wars and by the slowdown of productivity and population growth in line with the s g harrod domar solow formula that is for a given net saving

the level and distribution of global household wealth the level of average household wealth in all countries is estimated via the determinants of assets and debts for 39 countries which have balance sheet or survey data the distribution of wealth in all countries is inferred from information on the pattern of wealth ownership for 20 countries covering 59 of world population combining the level and distribution figures suggests that median global wealth was ppp 8 635 in the year 2000 and that ppp 518 361 was needed to belong to the top percentile the top decile owned 71 of world wealth and the global gini value was 0 802

natural resource economics under the rule of hotelling abstract natural resource stocks held in situ are physical assets equilibrium in the assets market requires that their rates of return be such that their owners are just willing to hold on to them rather than invest elsewhere i discuss a number of factors relating to the evolution of extraction costs to the durability of the resource to market structure and to uncertainty that are important in correctly characterizing the rate of return on holding exhaustible natural resource stocks the emphasis is put on how those factors can potentially help bridge the gap between the basic hotelling s rule of natural resource exploitation and the historical behaviour of the flow price of a number of resources i also highlight some theoretical and empirical issues that need further attention

the missing wealth of nations are europe and the u s net debtors or net creditors this paper shows that official statistics substantially underestimate the net foreign asset positions of rich countries because they fail to capture most of the assets held by households in offshore tax havens drawing on systematic anomalies in portfolio investment positions and a unique swiss dataset i find that 8 of the global financial wealth of households is held in tax havens 6 of which goes unrecorded on the basis of plausible assumptions accounting for unrecorded assets turns the eurozone officially the world s second largest net debtor into a net creditor it also reduces the u s net debt significantly the results shed new light on global imbalances and challenge the widespread view that after a decade of poor to rich capital flows external assets are now in poor countries and debts in rich countries i provide concrete proposals to improve international investment statistics

on the long run evolution of inheritance france 1820 2050 this paper attempts to document and account for the long run evolution of inheritance we find that in a country like france the annual flow of inheritance was about 20 25 of national income between 1820 and 1910 down to less than 5 in 1950 and back up to about 15 by 2010 a simple theoretical model of wealth accumulation growth and inheritance can fully account for the observed u shaped pattern and levels using this model we find that under plausible assumptions the annual bequest flow might reach about 20 25 of national income by 2050 this corresponds to a capitalized bequest share in total wealth accumulation well above 100 our findings illustrate the fact that when the growth rate g is small and when the rate of return to private wealth r is permanently and substantially larger than the growth rate say r 4 5 vs g 1 2 which was the case in the 19th century and early 20th century and is likely to happen again in the 21st century then past wealth and inheritance are bound to play a key role for aggregate wealth accumulation and the structure of lifetime inequality contrarily to a widely spread view modern economic growth did not kill inheritance

technology driven inequality leads to poverty and resource depletion the rapid rise in inequality is often seen to go in hand with resource overuse examples include water extraction in pakistan land degradation in bangladesh forest harvesting in sub saharan africa and industrial fishing in lake victoria while access to ecosystem services provided by common pool resources mitigates poverty exclusive access to technology by wealthy individuals may fuel excessive resource extraction and deplete the resource thus widening the wealth gap we use a stylised social ecological model to illustrate how a positive feedback between wealth and technology may fuel local inequality the resulting rise in local inequality can lead to resource degradation and critical transitions such as ecological resource collapse and unexpected increase in poverty further we find that societies may evolve towards a stable state of few wealthy and many poor individuals where the distribution of wealth depends on how access to technology is distributed overall our results illustrate how access to technology may be a mechanism that fuels resource degradation and consequently pushes most vulnerable members of society into a poverty trap

pareto and piketty the macroeconomics of top income and wealth inequality abstract since the early 2000s research by thomas piketty emmanuel saez and their coauthors has revolutionized our understanding of income and wealth inequality in this paper i highlight some of the key empirical facts from this research and comment on how they relate to macroeconomics and to economic theory more generally one of the key links between data and theory is the pareto distribution the paper describes simple mechanisms that give rise to pareto distributions for income and wealth and considers the economic forces that influence top inequality over time and across countries for example it is in this context that the role of the famous r g expression is best understood

carbon prices for the next hundred years this paper examines the socially optimal pricing of carbon emissions over time when climate change impacts are unknown potentially high consequence events the carbon price tends to increase with income but learning about impacts or their absence decouples the carbon price from income growth the price should grow faster than the economy if the past warming is not substantial enough for learning the true long run social cost it grows slower than the economy as soon as the warming generates information about events that could have arrived but have not done so a quantitative assessment shows that the price grows roughly at the rate of the economy for the next 100 years

the race between man and machine implications of technology for growth factor shares and employment we examine the concerns that new technologies will render labor redundant in a framework in which tasks previously performed by labor can be automated and new versions of existing tasks in which labor has a comparative advantage can be created in a static version where capital is fixed and technology is exogenous automation reduces employment and the labor share and may even reduce wages while the creation of new tasks has the opposite effects our full model endogenizes capital accumulation and the direction of research towards automation and the creation of new tasks if the long run rental rate of capital relative to the wage is sufficiently low the long run equilibrium involves automation of all tasks otherwise there exists a stable balanced growth path in which the two types of innovations go hand in hand stability is a consequence of the fact that automation reduces the cost of producing using labor and thus discourages further automation and encourages the creation of new tasks in an extension with heterogeneous skills we show that inequality increases during transitions driven both by faster automation and introduction of new tasks and characterize the conditions under which inequality is increasing or stable in the long run

wealth and inequality over eight centuries of british capitalism abstract this paper constructs annual data for the wealth income ratio w y for the uk over the period 1210 2013 it is found that the w y ratio has fluctuated at one two century frequencies about a constant level of approximately 500 over the past eight centuries furthermore a u shaped w y path is identified over the past two centuries and it is argued that the descending part of the u shape is driven by the transition from pre industrial modes of production to industrialization and that the post 1980 upturn in the w y ratio represents the transition from the industrial to the post industrialization era

the dynamics of inequality the past forty years have seen a rapid rise in top income inequality in the united states while there is a large number of existing theories of the pareto tail of the long run income distributions almost none of these address the fast rise in top inequality observed in the data we show that standard theories which build on a random growth mechanism generate transition dynamics that are too slow relative to those observed in the data we then suggest two parsimonious deviations from the canonical model that can explain such changes scale dependence that may arise from changes in skill prices and type dependence that is the presence of some high growth types these deviations are consistent with theories in which the increase in top income inequality is driven by the rise of superstar entrepreneurs or managers

directed technological change cross country income differences a quantitative analysis research aimed at understanding cross country income differences finds that inputs of human and physical capital play a limited role in explaining those differences however most of this work assumes workers with different education levels are perfect substitutes does moving away from this assumption affect our conclusions about the causes of long run development to answer this question we construct measures of skill specific productivity and barriers to innovation for a large sample of countries over the period 1910 2010 we use a model of endogenous directed technological change together with a new data set on output and labor force composition across countries we find that rich countries use labor of all skill categories more efficiently however in the absence or barriers to entry poor countries would actually be more efficient at using low skill labor our estimates imply that after 1950 the world technology frontier expanded much faster for college educated workers than for those with lower skill sets this technology diffused to many countries allowing even poorer countries to experience relatively robust growth of high skill specific productivity their gdp growth failed to reflect that because of their labor composition they have very few workers in the higher skilled category finally we investigate the relative importance of factor endowments versus barriers to technology in explaining the current disparities of standards of living and find it to depend crucially on the value of the elasticity of substitution between skill types under a lower value of 1 6 our model yields barrier estimates that are lower and relatively less important in explaining cross country income differences in this scenario physical and human capital account almost 70 of variance in 2010 gdp per worker in our sample using elasticity of 2 6 we find barriers that are higher and explain most of the variation in output we provide some evidence that the higher value of elasticity is preferred

sales and consumer inventory temporary price reductions sales are common for many goods and naturally result in a large increase in the quantity sold we explore whether the data support the hypothesis that these increases are at least partly due to demand anticipation at low prices consumers store for future consumption this effect if present has broad economic implications we test the predictions of an inventory model using scanner data with two years of household purchases the results are consistent with an inventory model and suggest that static demand estimates may overestimate price sensitivity

the risk free rate in heterogeneous agent incomplete insurance economies abstract why has the average real risk free interest rate been less than one percent the question is motivated by the failure of a class of calibrated representative agent economies to explain the average return to equity and risk free debt i construct an economy where agents experience uninsurable idiosyncratic endowment shocks and smooth consumption by holding a risk free asset i calibrate the economy and characterize equilibria computationally with a borrowing constraint of one year s income the resulting risk free rate is more than one percent below the rate in the comparable representative agent economy

savings and growth in neoclassical growth models a comment on is piketty s second law of capitalism fundamental abstract this note explores the response of saving rates to the rate of income growth in models of optimal growth contrary to the claims in krusell and smith 2015 the sign of this response depends on the consumption intertemporal elasticity of substitution

does slow growth lead to rising inequality some theoretical reflections and numerical simulations this paper explores the hypothesis most notably made by french economist thomas piketty that slow growth rates lead to rising inequality if true this hypothesis would pose serious challenges to achieving prosperity without growth or meeting the ambitions of those who call for an intentional slowing down of growth on ecological grounds it would also create problems of social justice in the context of a secular stagnation the paper describes a closed demand driven stock flow consistent model of savings inequality and growth in a macroeconomic framework sigma with exogenous growth and savings rates sigma is used to examine the evolution of inequality in the context of declining economic growth contrary to the general hypothesis we find that inequality does not necessarily increase as growth slows down in fact there are certain conditions under which inequality can be reduced significantly or even eliminated entirely as growth declines the paper discusses the implications of this finding for questions of employment government fiscal policy and the politics of de growth

no price like home global house prices 1870 2012 how have house prices evolved in the long run this paper presents annual house price indices for 14 advanced economies since 1870 based on extensive data collection we are able to show for the first time that house prices in most industrial economies stayed constant in real terms from the 19th to the mid 20th century but rose sharply in recent decades land prices not construction costs hold the key to understanding the trajectory of house prices in the long run residential land prices have surged in the second half of the 20th century but did not increase meaningfully before we argue that before world war ii dramatic reductions in transport costs expanded the supply of land and suppressed land prices since the mid 20th century comparably large land augmenting reductions in transport costs no longer occurred increased regulations on land use further inhibited the utilization of additional land while rising expenditure shares for housing services increased demand

inequalities and the individualization of wealth abstract we document the individualization of wealth in france between 1998 and 2015 using precise survey data on the property titles of assets it is characterized by an increase in the share of wealth which is individualized by spouses vs jointly owned and by an increase in the share of wealth held by singles we show that the usual measures of wealth inequality which allocate the same share of household wealth to each spouse or partner overestimate the share of wealth held by women this results in an underestimation of both the level and the growth of a wealth inequality between individuals and b the gender wealth gap we argue for better consideration of the ownership status and intra household distribution of wealth in the measurement of wealth inequality

skewed wealth distributions theory and empirics invariably across a cross section of countries and time periods wealth distributions are skewed to the right displaying thick upper tails that is large and slowly declining top wealth shares in this survey we categorize the theoretical studies on the distribution of wealth in terms of the underlying economic mechanism generating skewness and thick tails further we show how these mechanisms can be micro founded by the consumption saving decisions of rational agents in speci c economic and demographic environments finally we map the large empirical work on the wealth distribution to its theoretical underpinning

top income shares and aggregate wealth income ratio in a two class corporate economy this paper examines some determinants of top income shares and the aggregate wealth income ratio in the usa the paper first points out the difficulties in piketty s neo classical version of explanation of us income inequality which stresses the effect of the rising aggregate wealth income ratio and high elasticity of factor substitution second the analysis based on a cambridge two class model along the lines of kaldor 1955 56 1966 and pasinetti 1962 highlights the role of financialization in increasing inequality third the analysis suggests that the rise in the aggregate wealth income ratio from 1980 to 2007 in the usa is explained mostly by asset price inflation not by technical relations finally the analysis examines the effects of the slowdown in capital accumulation on income distribution and wealth income ratios which are very different from those in piketty s capital in the twenty first century

the rise and decline of general laws of capitalism economists have long been drawn to the ambitious quest of discovering the general laws of capitalism david ricardo for example predicted that capital accumulation would terminate in economic stagnation and inequality as a greater and greater share of national income accrued to landowners karl marx followed him by forecasting the inevitable immiseration of the proletariat thomas piketty s 2014 tome capital in the twenty first century emulates marx in his title his style of exposition and his critique of the capitalist system piketty is after general laws that will demystify our modern economy and elucidate the inherent problems of the system and point to solutions but the quest for general laws of capitalism is misguided because it ignores the key forces shaping how an economy functions the endogenous evolution of technology and of the institutions and the political equilibrium that influence not only technology but also how markets function and how the gains from various different economic arrangements are distributed despite his erudition ambition and creativity marx was led astray because of his disregard of these forces the same is true of piketty s sweeping account of inequality in capitalist economies in the next section we review marx s conceptualization of capitalism and some of his general laws we then turn to piketty s approach to capitalism and his general laws we will point to various problems in piketty s interpretation of the economic relationships underpinning inequality but the most important shortcoming is that

critical remarks on piketty s capital in the twenty first century this article discusses the central macroeconomic claims that are made in thomas piketty s book capital in the twenty first century the article aims to show that piketty s contentions are not only logically flawed but also contradicted by his own data

inequality leverage and crises the paper studies how high leverage and crises can arise as a result of changes in the income distribution empirically the periods 1920 1929 and 1983 2007 both exhibited a large increase in the income share of the rich a large increase in leverage for the remainder and an eventual financial and real crisis the paper presents a theoretical model where these features arise endogenously as a result of a shift in bargaining powers over incomes a financial crisis can reduce leverage if it is very large and not accompanied by a real contraction but restoration of the lower income group s bargaining power is more effective

discretionary fiscal responses to the covid 19 pandemic we analyse discretionary fiscal responses to the covid 19 pandemic we distinguish policies for three phases of the pandemic 1 acute overall disruption 2 initial recovery phase and 3 the longer term we analyse measures already taken in 1 and consider measures relevant for 2 we distinguish between lump sum subsidies such as deferral of tax payments which may ease financial constraints and measures which intentionally affect incentives we also identify factors that are important given the short term nature of the measures

episodes of war and peace in an estimated open economy model we analyze the effects of world wars on the macroeconomic dynamics of the u s france germany and the uk by means of an estimated open economy model the model allows wars to affect the economy through capital depreciation sovereign default a military draft household preferences and spillovers on other exogenous processes productivity investment trade policy variables if the bulk of fluctuations during war episodes can be explained by the rise in government spending in the u s other factors are crucial in other countries we also discuss the size and state dependence of public spending multipliers and a counterfactual welfare exercise

the supply side of co2 with country heterogeneity several recent articles have analyzed climate policy paying explicit attention to the fact that carbon resources are non renewable in most of this body of literature the economy is treated as a single unit and in the context of climate policy it seems reasonable to interpret this as the whole world however carbon taxes and other climate policies differ substantially across countries with such heterogeneity the effects on the emission paths of changes in taxes costs and subsidies might be very different from what is found for a hypothetical world of identical countries

the decline in capital efficiency and labour share we calibrate and simulate a neoclassical growth model with a variable elasticity of substitution production function and three types of technological change labour augmenting capital augmenting and investment specific in this framework we find that the decline in us labour share was caused by a large decline in capital efficiency which led to a decrease in the ratio of effective capital to effective labour in a context in which capital and labour are gross complements moreover the decline in the relative price of investment contributed to reducing the fall in us labour share while the increase in the economic depreciation rate of us fixed assets accounted for a small reduction in us labour share

the potential impacts of climate change on capital in the 21st century abstract an endogenous growth model with a simple climate system is used to examine the potential impacts of climate change on the capital to net income ratio and the net of depreciation share of income to capital a measure of wealth concentration and income distribution between capital and labour respectively over the next two centuries if climate change only directly affects production as usually assumed the capital to net income ratio will increase as compared to what it would be in the absence of climate change the capital to income ratio will increase even further if climate change affects labour productivity in both cases the increase in the ratio after 2100 is due to the stock of capital being depleted at a lower rate than net income is falling however the capital to net income ratio will be lower and eventually fall if damage from climate change increases the depreciation rate of capital this decline is marginally reduced if climate change impacts both capital and labour productivity in the case where climate change impacts the depreciation of capital the ratio after 2100 is falling because the stock of capital is destroyed faster than net income is falling furthermore climate change reduces the net share of income accruing to capital in all scenarios with dramatic changes in the case of climate change affecting the depreciation of capital emissions abatement almost completely mitigates these impacts on the capital to net income ratio and the net share of income to capital

is piketty s second law of capitalism fundamental in capital in the twenty first century thomas piketty uses what he calls the second fundamental law of capitalism to predict that capital to income ratios are poised to increase dramatically as economies growth rates fall during the twenty first century this law states that in the long run the capital to income ratio equals s g where s is the economy s saving rate and g its growth rate we argue that this law rests on a theory of saving that is hard to justify first it holds the net saving rate constant as growth falls driving the gross savings rate to one as growth goes to zero second it is inconsistent with both the textbook growth model and the theory of optimal saving in both of these theories the net saving rate goes to zero as growth goes to zero third both of these theories provide a reasonable fit to observed data on gross and net saving rates and growth rates in cross country panel data whereas piketty s does not finally contrary to piketty s second law both of these theories predict that capital to income ratios increase only modestly as growth falls

unconventional fiscal policy at the zero bound when the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates binds monetary policy cannot provide appropriate stimulus we show that in the standard new keynesian model tax policy can deliver such stimulus at no cost and in a time consistent manner there is no need to use inecient policies such as

the elasticity of intertemporal substitution new evidence from 401 k participation abstract using health and retirement study data and a structural econometric model we exploit variation in employer matching rates in 401 k plans to generate new estimates of the eis 0 74 in our richest specification with a 95 confidence interval of 0 37 1 21

intertemporal depletion of resource sites by spatially distributed users mineral deposits and other exhaustible resources are scattered around the globe as are their users yet the theory for analyzing depletion of such resources assumes that all resource sites and all users are located in the same place when applying the theory therefore one is forced to disregard what often seems to be an important real world consideration our purpose here is to generalize harold hotelling s 1931 theory of exhaustible resources to accommodate situations in which resource sites and their users are spatially distributed our analysis has many applications it can be applied to a conventional exhaustible resource like oil alternatively it can be applied to an unconventional exhaustible resource like scarce landfill space shipments of solid waste to landfills in other states or countries have become a prominent public policy issue eduardo ley et al 2000 finally our analysis can be applied in situations where the space reflects not geographical location but characteristics of the resource e g the sulfur content hardness and so forth of coal which users find distinctive 2 only two theoretical papers in resource economics have introduced spatial considerations 3 jean jacques laffont and michel moreaux 1986 studied the extraction of resources from sites located along a line segment with all users at one end charles kolstad 1994 was the first to consider spatially distributed users in his formulation consumers are distributed uniformly along a line segment with resource sites at each end kolstad s approach although innovative requires that the set of users be parti

specialization and non renewable resources ricardo meets ricardo abstract the one demand hotelling model fails to explain the observed specialization of non renewable resources we develop a model with multiple demands and resources to show that specialization of resources according to demand is driven by ricardian comparative advantage while the order of resource use over time is determined by ricardian absolute advantage an abundant resource with absolute advantage in all demands must be initially employed in all demands when each resource has an absolute advantage in some demand no resource may be used exclusively the two by two model is characterized resource and demand specific taxes are shown to have significant substitution effects

measuring intertemporal substitution in consumption evidence from a vat increase in japan abstract we estimate the intertemporal elasticity of substitution in consumption ies using a preannounced increase in japan s consumption tax rate because this tax is highly comprehensive the rate increase was announced prior to its implementation and because other factors that affect the real interest rate were constant the tax rate increase presents an ideal natural experiment to estimate the ies a japanese monthly household survey is exploited to accurately categorize nondurables and our empirical specification addresses intratemporal substitution bias we find that the ies is 0 21 and not significantly different from 0 but it is significantly less than 1

intergenerational wealth mobility and the role of inheritance evidence from multiple generations this study estimates intergenerational correlations in mid life wealth across three generations and a young fourth generation and examines how much of the parent child association that can be explained by inheritances using a swedish data set we find parent child rank correlations of 0 3 0 4 and grandparents grandchild rank correlations of 0 1 0 2 conditional on parents wealth grandparents wealth is weakly positively associated with grandchild s wealth and the parent child correlation is basically unchanged if we control for grandparents wealth bequests and gifts strikingly account for at least 50 per cent of the parent child wealth correlation while earnings and education are only able to explain 25 per cent

about capital in the twenty first century in this article i present three key facts about income and wealth inequality in the long run emerging from my book capital in the twenty first century and seek to sharpen and refocus the discussion about those trends in particular i clarify the role played by r g in my analysis of wealth inequality i also discuss some of the implications for optimal taxation and the relation between capital income ratios and capital shares

the horizontally s shaped laffer curve in a neoclassical growth model with incomplete markets and heterogeneous liquidity constrained agents the properties of the laffer curve depend on whether debt or transfers are adjusted to balance the government budget constraint the laffer curve conditional on public debt is horizontally s shaped two opposing forces explain this result first when government wealth increases the fiscal burden declines calling for lower tax rates second because the interest rate decreases when government wealth increases fiscal revenues may also decline calling for higher taxes for sufficiently negative government debt the second force dominates leading to the odd shape of the laffer curve conditional on debt

global imbalances in the xix xx and the xxi centuries we establish a new stylized fact while the current account and the trade balances are positively correlated during the second globalization 1990s 2010s they were negatively correlated during the first globalization 1870s 1910s we show that the reason behind is that the world interest rate is currently low relatively to the world growth rate due to a global saving glut while this was not the case during the first globalization

the rate of return on everything 1870 2015 what is the aggregate real rate of return in the economy is it higher than the growth rate of the economy and if so by how much is there a tendency for returns to fall in the long run which particular assets have the highest long run returns we answer these questions on the basis of a new and comprehensive data set for all major asset classes including housing the annual data on total returns for equity housing bonds and bills cover 16 advanced economies from 1870 to 2015 and our new evidence reveals many new findings and puzzles

technological change and inequality in the very long run abstract in this paper we investigate the impact of technological change on inequality in the presence of a landed elite using a standard unified growth model we measure inequality by the ratio between land rent and wages and show that before the onset of the fertility transition technological progress increased inequality directly through land biased technological change and indirectly through increasing population growth the fertility transition and the child quantity quality trade off eventually disabled the malthusian mechanism and technological progress triggered education and benefited workers if the elasticity of substitution between land and labor is sufficiently high the rent wage ratio declines such that inequality is hump shaped in the very long run we use the publication of new farming book titles as a measure of technological progress in agriculture and provide evidence for technology driven inequality in britain between 1525 and 1895 we confirm these results for a panel of european countries over the period 1265 1850 using agricultural productivity as a measure of technology finally using patents in the period 1800 1980 we find a technology driven inequality reversal around the onset of the fertility transition

anticipation and environmental regulation abstract when agents expect a change in regulation to change the relative price of new durable goods they may shift purchases forward to avoid compliance costs in the context of new vehicle emission standards prior analyses have not considered this adjustment margin we model the effects of anticipation on sales and retirements of durable goods and test our theory s predictions empirically using the 2007 implementation of heavy duty emission standards we find evidence that anticipation caused a sales spike just before the policy took effect and a symmetric sales slump after implementation which resulted in 31 164 more freight truck sales ahead of the new standard and as much as 118 million in environmental damages over the lifetimes of those vehicles

capital flows to the new world as an intergenerational transfer the late nineteenth century saw international mass migrations of capital and labor from the old world to the new factors chased each other and the abundant resources at the frontier demographic structure also contributed to the massive capital flows from britain to the new world the dependency hypothesis is confirmed by estimation of savings functions in three new world economies argentina australia and canada in which high dependency rates may have significantly depressed domestic savings rates and pulled in foreign investment in effect an intergenerational transfer from old savers in the old world to young savers in the new

ces technology and business cycle fluctuations we contribute to an emerging literature that brings the constant elasticity of substitution ces specification of the production function into the analysis of business cycle fluctuations using us data we estimate by bayesian maximum likelihood methods a standard medium sized dsge model with a ces rather than cobb douglas cd technology we estimate a elasticity of substitution between capital and labour well below unity at 0 15 0 18 in a marginal likelihood race ces decisively beats the cd production and this is matched by its ability to fit the data better in terms of second moments we show that this result is mainly driven by the implied fluctuations of factor shares under the ces specification the ces model performance is further improved when the estimation is carried out under an imperfect information assumption hence the main message for dsge models is that we should dismiss once and for all the use of cd for business cycle analysis

extraction capacity and the optimal order of extraction the least cost first extraction rule for deposits with different extraction costs previously has been shown to be invalid in general equilibrium this paper demonstrates that this rule also does not hold in partial equilibrium when extraction capacity is limited necessary and sufficient conditions for several surprising extraction orders are presented if extraction from a high cost resource is constrained it may be optimal to begin extraction from a high cost deposit or backstop strictly before extracting from a lower cost deposit if extraction from a low cost resource is limited it may be optimal to exhaust a high cost deposit strictly before the low cost deposit is exhausted or to abandon extraction temporarily from a high cost deposit and then to exhaust it later the analysis demonstrates how extraction constraints affect the order of extraction and shows that certain cost reversals are caused by limited extraction capacity rather than by the general equilibrium definition of extraction costs

consumer durables and the real interest rate one important channel through which real interest rates affect aggregate demand is consumer expenditure on durable goods this paper examines empirically the link between interest rates and consumer durables solving for the decision rule relating income and interest rates to consumer demand is an intractable task this paper avoids this problem by examining the first order conditions necessary for maximization by the representative consumer structural parameters of there presentative utility function are thus recovered the estimated model suggests that expenditure on consumer durables is far more sensitive to changes in the interest rate than is expenditure on nondurables and services this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

merit and rent in a growing economy in the framework of romer s 1990 growth model we endogenize human capital accumulation as the risky outcome of an effort choice policies favouring the accumulation of physical capital may reduce the incentives to effort leading the economy on a balanced path with a high capital intensity and a low growth rate

tax policy and consumer spending evidence from japanese fiscal experiments abstract this paper studies the extent to which the impact of tax policy on consumer spending differs between temporary and permanent as well as anticipated and unanticipated tax changes to discriminate between them we use institutional information such as legal distinction between temporary and permanent tax changes as well as timing of policy announcement and implementation we find that the impact of temporary changes is significantly smaller than the impact of permanent changes we also find that more than 80 percent of japanese consumers including those who distinguish between temporary and permanent tax changes respond to tax changes at the time of their implementation and not at the time of a policy announcement we suggest an interpretation that these consumers follow a near rational decision rule

the efficiency gains from dynamic tax reform this paper presents a new simulation methodology for determining the pure efficiency gains from tax reform along the general equilibrium rational expectations growth path of life cycle economies the principal findings concern the effects of switching from a proportional income tax with rates similar to those in the u s to either a proportional tax on consumption or a proportional tax on labor income a switch to consumption taxation generates a sustainable welfare gain of almost 2 percent of lifetime resources in contrast a transition to wage taxation generates a loss of greater than percent of lifetime re sources a second general result is that even a mild degree of progressivity in the income tax system imposes a very large efficiency cost this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

a framework for reviewing the trade offs between renewable energy food feed and wood production at a local level high fuel prices and concerns about energy security and anthropogenic climate change are encouraging a transition towards a low carbon economy although energy policy is typically set at a national level tools are needed for people to engage with energy policy at regional and local levels and to guide decisions regarding land use distributed generation and energy supply and demand the aim of this paper is to develop a per capita approach to renewable energy demand and supply within a landscape and to illustrate the key trade offs between renewable energy food animal feed and wood production the chosen case study area 16 000 ha of marston vale england is anticipated to have a population density midway between that for england and the uk the daily per capita demand for energy for heat 31 kwh transport 34 kwh and electricity 15 kwh when combined 80 kwh was seven fold higher than the combined demand for food 2 kwh animal feed 6 kwh and wood 4 kwh using described algorithms the combined potential energy supply from domestic wind and photovoltaic panels solar heating ground source heat and municipal waste was limited 10 kwh p 1 d 1 additional electricity could be generated from landfill gas and commercial wind turbines but these have temporal implications using a geographical information system and the yield safe tree and crop yield model the capacity to supply bioethanol biodiesel and biomass food feed and wood was calculated and illustrated for three land use scenarios these scenarios highlight the limits on meeting energy demands for transport 33 and heat 53 even if all of the arable and grassland area was planted to a high yielding crop like wheat the described framework therefore highlights the major constraints faced in meeting current uk energy demands from land based renewable energy and the stark choices faced by decision makers

income and wealth heterogeneity in the macroeconomy how do movements in the distribution of income and wealth affect the macroeconomy we analyze this question using a calibrated version of the stochastic growth model with partially uninsurable idiosyncratic risk and movements in aggregate productivity our main finding is that in the stationary stochastic equilibrium the behavior of the macroeconomic aggregates can be almost perfectly described using only the mean of the wealth distribution this result is robust to substantial changes in both parameter values and model specification our benchmark model whose only difference from the representative agent framework is the existence of uninsurable idiosyncratic risk displays far less cross sectional dispersion and skewness in wealth than u s data however an extension that relies on a small amount of heterogeneity in thrift does succeed in replicating the key features of the wealth data furthermore this extension features aggregate time series that depart significantly from permanent income behavior

taking time for the environment on timing and the role of delays in environmental and resource economics ecosystem transformation and climate change evolve over long time scales the effects of the economic decisions on the natural environment are also of a long run character because they relate to investment decisions and capital stocks at the same time the economy is short sighted and subject to different kinds of market failures the time it takes to notice the changes and adequately address the associated problems affects the dynamics and inertia of the process we discuss some recent contributions and new research questions that deal with time and timing in environmental and resource economics

sticker shocks using vat changes to estimate upper level elasticities of substitution we estimate the upper level elasticity of substitution between goods and services of a nested aggregate ces preference specification we show how this elasticity can be derived from the long run response of the relative price of a good to a change in its vat rate we estimate this elasticity using new data on changes in vat rates across 74 goods and services for 25 european union countries from 1996 through 2015 depending on the level of aggregation we find a vat pass through rate between 0 4 and 0 7 this implies an upper level elasticity of 3 at the lowest level of aggregation with 74 categories and 1 cobb douglas preferences at a high level of aggregation that distinguishes 10 categories of goods and services

growth is really good for the really rich this paper analyzes the relationship between mean income and the income of the rich our methodology closely follows that of dollar and kraay 2002 but instead of looking at the bottom of the distribution we analyze the top we use panel data from the world top incomes database which collects top income data from several countries using tax returns as the raw source we define the rich as earners in the top 10 percent 1 percent 0 1 percent and 0 01 percent of the income distribution we find that economic growth is good for the rich in the sense that the mean income of the top decile of the distribution grows in the same proportion as that of the whole population however we also find that the income of earners in the top percentile of the distribution and above grows in an even larger proportion than average income that is economic growth is really good for the really rich we also find that during economic downturns the average income of top earners responds proportionally less to changes in mean income than during economic expansions our results are robust to different sample specifications

intertemporal substitution and storable products storable products allow consumers to time their purchases to exploit price fluctuations it has been documented that during promotions consumers buy more the additional purchases are potentially intended not only for current use but to be stockpiled for future consumption this paper discusses the predictions of a consumer inventory model and reviews the available evidence we then discuss the implications for demand estimation and present estimates of jel lo l4 dl d4 the economic magnitude of the dynamic effect of storability jel lo l4 dl d4 jel lo l4 dl d4

conflicts between decentralized renewable electricity production and landscape services a spatially explicit quantitative assessment for switzerland abstract the production of decentralized renewable electricity often collides with provisioning regulating and cultural services of the landscape in this paper we operationalize the landscape service approach and generate conflict maps between three renewable energies wind pv forest biomass and six competing landscape services nutrition and materials aesthetics physical and experiential interactions heritage and symbolic content water and liquid flows lifecycle maintenance habitat and gene pool protection media content analysis and expert interviews were used to ground truth the national conflict maps in several swiss regions and to understand to what degree the national conflict assessments match the regional and local perceptions of these conflicts in switzerland approximately 40 000 km 2 biomass from forests is by far the least conflicting renewable energy followed by pv on roofs for the latter 68 of the technically feasible energy potential can be generated with low conflicts and more is expected with new materials wind has a high conflict potential only 12 of the technically feasible energy potential is low conflict pv on open land marginal land and shrubland is at the moment not currently feasible in switzerland the accuracy of our conflict assessment is sufficiently high to estimate the proportion that socially sustainable energy could cover of the overall energy gap of 22 25 twh yr caused by the phase out of swiss nuclear plants by 2050 low conflict solar energy from rooftops could contribute approximately 30 of the required 22 25 twh yr intensified wood production and wind energy could add another 40 the gap of approximately 30 must come from undisputed energy sources such as biogas from recycled organic material from centralized renewable energies such as geothermal or large hydropower or from new or technologically improved renewable energies the presented decision support tools are a timely contribution to the designation of legally binding zones for renewable energy production

landscape externalities from onshore wind power the expansion of renewable energy is a central element of the german federal government s climate and energy policy the target for 2020 is to produce 30 of the electricity from renewable energies wind power has been selected to be a major contributor to this change replacing old wind turbines by modern ones and building new turbines on land will be crucial in meeting this target however the expansion of onshore wind power is not universally accepted in several regions of germany residents are protesting against setting up new wind turbines to determine the negative effects two choice experiments were applied in westsachsen and nordhessen germany in both regions the externalities of wind power generation until 2020 based on today s state of technology were measured the results show that negative landscape externalities would result from expanding wind power generation using latent class models three different groups of respondents experiencing different degrees of externalities were identified

on the intertemporal elasticity of substitution under nonhomothetic utility in this note we use a model with nonseparable and nonhomothetic preferences to estimate the intertemporal elasticity of substitution ies we show that while the homothetic utility model may induce a bias that increases the elasticity of substitution between nondurables and durables the estimated ies remains positive and significant

evaluating ecosystem service trade offs with wind electricity production in switzerland in switzerland different types of land use including electricity production compete directly for little available space the swiss energy strategy relies heavily on incorporating renewable sources of electricity including wind in order to ensure long term efficient socially acceptable and sustainable electricity production land use conflicts should be addressed and properly managed through a comprehensive and balanced process we propose a method to apply the ecosystem service es approach combined with an optimisation tool to tackle the complex problems posed by wind electricity development in a topographically challenging landscape marxan was used as optimisation software to evaluate assess and quantify the trade offs between es provisioning and wind electricity production expressing different es in comparable units and evaluating the costs to the system when these are lost versus the benefits gained from wind electricity production generated an output of possible solutions when compared to similar studies modelling wind electricity output that avoid negative interaction with es throughout switzerland the current results using the optimisation tool marxan suggest a solution requiring 13 5 fewer turbines 1903 in an average solution in order to produce 12 twh yr of wind generated electricity and 18 fewer turbines 842 on average to produce 5 twh yr thus using optimisation software can lead to more efficient spatial planning solutions our methodology can be applied toward cost effective renewable energy development that minimises opportunity cost in terms of foregone es provisioning

distributional national accounts methods and estimates for the united states this article combines tax survey and national accounts data to estimate the distribution of national income in the united states since 1913 our distributional national accounts capture 100 of national income allowing us to compute growth rates for each quantile of the income distribution consistent with macroeconomic growth we estimate the distribution of both pretax and posttax income making it possible to provide a comprehensive view of how government redistribution affects inequality average pretax real national income per adult has increased 60 from 1980 to 2014 but we find that it has stagnated for the bottom 50 of the distribution at about 16 000 a year the pretax income of the middle class adults between the median and the 90th percentile has grown 40 since 1980 faster than what tax and survey data suggest due in particular to the rise of tax exempt fringe benefits income has boomed at the top the upsurge of top incomes was first a labor income phenomenon but has mostly been a capital income phenomenon since 2000 the government has offset only a small fraction of the increase in inequality the reduction of the gender gap in earnings has mitigated the increase in inequality among adults but the share of women falls steeply as one moves up the labor income distribution and is only 11 in the top 0 1 in 2014

does the current account still matter do global current account imbalances still matter in a world of deep international financial markets where gross two way financial flows often dwarf the net flows measured in the current account contrary to a complete markets or consenting adults view of the world large current account imbalances while very possibly warranted by fundamentals and welcome can also signal elevated macroeconomic and financial stresses as was arguably the case in the mid 2000s furthermore the increasingly big valuation changes in countries net international investment positions while potentially important in risk allocation cannot be relied upon systematically to offset the changes in national wealth implied by the current account the same factors that dictate careful attention to global imbalances also imply however that data on gross international financial flows and positions are central to any assessment of financial stability risks the balance sheet mismatches of leveraged entities provide the most direct indicators of potential instability much more so than do global imbalances though the imbalances may well be a symptom that deeper financial threats are gathering

wealth distribution with random discount factors abstract to explain the pareto tail behavior empirically observed in wealth distributions the quantitative macro literature has occasionally assumed that agents have random discount factors this paper formally proves that the stationary wealth distribution in a simple huggett model with random discounting has power law tails and characterizes the pareto exponents analytically i find that in general there is no clear relationship between the return on wealth and inequality and that the pareto exponent is highly sensitive to the persistence of the discount factor process i also provide a practical guidance for how to characterize the pareto exponents in richer models

the evolution of wealth inequality over half a century the role of taxes transfers and technology over the last 50 years the u s tax system went through a striking transformation that reduced the effective tax rates for top income groups and raised transfers to seniors this paper investigates the macroeconomic repercussions of this change in policy particularly for the distributions of income wealth and consumption changes in taxes and transfers account for nearly half of the rise in wealth concentration nonetheless their impact on the distributions of income and consumption has been minor due to changes in equilibrium prices and the offsetting effects of tax cuts and transfers on the dispersion of consumption results highlight the role of increasing wage dispersion during this period as the main driver of trends in inequality

power laws in economics an introduction paul samuelson 1969 was once asked by a physicist for a law in economics that was both nontrivial and true this is a difficult challenge as many roughly true results are in the end rather trivial for example demand curves slope down while many nontrivial results in economics in fact require too much sophistication and rationality on the part of the agents to actually hold true in practice 1 samuelson answered the law of comparative advantage the story does not say whether the physicist was satisfied the law of comparative advantage is a qualitative law and not a quantitative one as is the rule in physics indeed many of the insights of economics seem to be qualitative with many fewer reliable

on the optimal order of natural resource use when the capacity of the inexhaustible substitute is limited consider a general equilibrium framework where the marginal cost of extraction from several deposits of an exhaustible resource is constant in terms of an inexhaustible perfect substitute and differs between deposits the instantaneous rate of production form the inexhaustible resource is subject to a capacity constraint

factor income distribution and endogenous economic growth piketty meets romer what is the relationship between the economy s long run growth rate its capital income ratio and its factor income distribution a satisfactory answer requires an endogenous growth and savings rate we scrutinize piketty s 2014 theory in a richly parameterized variant of romer s 1990 seminal model with and without population growth the economy s growth and savings rate are exogenous in piketty s theory and endogenous in romer s in contrast to piketty s second fundamental law of capitalism a smaller growth rate may be associated with a smaller capital income ratio moreover it may go together with a greater or a smaller capital share jel e10 e21 e25 o33 o41

a theory of optimal inheritance taxation this paper derives optimal inheritance tax formulas that a capture the key equityeciency trade o b are expressed in terms of estimable sucient statistics c are robust to the underlying structure of preferences we consider dynamic stochastic models with general and heterogeneous bequest tastes and labor productivities we limit ourselves to simple but realistic linear or two bracket tax structures to obtain tractable formulas we show that long run optimal inheritance tax rates can always be expressed in terms of distributional parameters aggregate behavioral elasticities and social preferences for redistribution importantly those results carry over with tractable modications to a the case with social discounting instead of steady state welfare maximization b the case with partly accidental bequests c the standard barro becker dynastic model in all cases the optimal inheritance tax rate increases with the concentration of bequest received and decreases with the elasticity of aggregate bequests to the net of tax rate the optimal tax rate is positive and quantitatively large if concentration is high the elasticity is low and society cares mostly about those receiving little inheritance in contrast the optimal tax rate is negative when society cares mostly about inheritors we propose a calibration using micro data for france and the united states we nd that for realistic parameters

sharing and cooperation in an experiment with heterogeneous groups abstract we investigate the impact of inequality on sharing and cooperation using a dictator game and a linear public good game where some participants work for their endowment workers while others do not non workers moreover we differentiate between two types of inequality namely in source and in level in contrast to most studies participants are fully informed about the endowment of the other players the key finding of our paper is that both sharing and cooperation critically depend on the source of the endowment in particular workers are more likely to share with other workers than with non workers and more inclined to contribute to the public good when grouped with other workers rather than when grouped with non workers considering also the choices made by non workers we argue that the worker premium in sharing and cooperation is based on fairness considerations rather than an in group bias adding inequality in the level of endowment reduces the importance of the source of endowment as driver of behavior this also suggests that reducing one layer of inequality may not improve cooperative behavior in society significantly implying that a big push policy tackling many dimensions of inequality at the same time may be required

poor little rich kids the role of nature versus nurture in wealth and other economic outcomes and behaviors wealth is highly correlated between parents and their children however little is known about the extent to which these relationships are genetic or determined by environmental factors we use administrative data on the net wealth of a large sample of swedish adoptees merged with similar information for their biological and adoptive parents comparing the relationship between the wealth of adopted and biological parents and that of the adopted child we find that even prior to any inheritance there is a substantial role for environment and a much smaller role for pre birth factors and we find little evidence that nature nurture interactions are important when bequests are taken into account the role of adoptive parental wealth becomes much stronger our findings suggest that wealth transmission is not primarily because children from wealthier families are inherently more talented or more able but that even in relatively egalitarian sweden wealth begets wealth we further build on the existing literature by providing a more comprehensive view of the role of nature and nurture on intergenerational mobility looking at a wide range of different outcomes using a common sample and method we find that environmental influences are relatively more important for wealth related variables such as savings and investment decisions than for human capital we conclude by studying consumption as an overall measure of welfare and find that like wealth it is more determined by environment than by biology

modeling nonrenewable resources use with multiple demands and multiple sources the theoretical literature following hotelling j polit econ 39 137 175 1931 assumed that all nonrenewable resource needs are satisfied by one type of resource e g oil extractible at different per unit costs this formulation implicitly assumes that all users are the same distance from each resource pool that all users can switch costlessly from one type of resource to another e g liquid fossil fuels to coal or vice versa and that all users are subject to the same regulations these assumptions imply as herfindahl extractive resources and taxation university of wisconsin press madison pp 63 90 1967 showed that in competitive equilibrium all users will exhaust a lower cost resource completely before beginning to extract a higher cost resource simultaneous extraction of different grades of oil or of oil and coal should never occur in trying to apply the single demand curve model during the last twenty years several teams of authors have independently found a need to generalize it to account for users differing in their 1 location 2 resource needs or 3 regulatory environment each research team found that herfindahl s strong unrealistic conclusion disappears in the generalized model in its place a weaker herfindahl result emerges since each research team focussed on a different application however it has not always been clear that everyone has been describing the same generalized model the goal in this paper is to integrate the findings of these teams and to present an easily accessible generalization of the nonrenewable resource model to multiple demand curves

on the share of inheritance in aggregate wealth europe and the usa 1900 2010 this paper provides historical series on the evolution of the share of inherited wealth in aggregate private wealth in europe france the uk germany sweden and the usa over the 1900 2010 period until 1910 the inheritance share was very high in europe 70 80 it then fell abruptly following the 1914 45 shocks down to about 30 40 during the 1950 80 period and is back to 50 60 and rising since around 2010 the us pattern also appears to be u shaped albeit less marked and with significant uncertainty regarding recent trends due to data limitations we discuss possible interpretations for these long run patterns

winners and losers from an announced durable tax hike tesla in denmark we study the consumer response and tax revenue implications of the early announcement of a durable good tax in 2015 the danish government announced a tax hike on electric vehicles several months

on the role of domestic and international financial cyclical factors in driving economic growth abstractwe investigate the effects of domestic and international financial cyclical factors on the us business cycle over the period 1890 2013 using an augmented stochastic version of the neoclas

comparative national balance sheets a study of twenty countries 1688 1978 raymond w goldsmith has combined his experience good sense and flair with figures to construct this groundbreaking comparative study of the balance sheets of twenty of the largest nations a pioneer in the field of national accounts goldsmith now presents a work that will be a valuable tool in tracking the economic progress of and between nations the majority of the balance sheets were created especially for this project their components gleaned from fragmentary and heterogeneous data there are approximately 3 500 entries each measuring the value of one type of tangible or financial asset or liability at a given date goldsmith s estimates are keyed to fifteen benchmark dates in the economic progress of the cited nations and for twelve nations he was able to construct balance sheets dating back to the nineteenth century or earlier combined worldwide balance sheet are included for 1950 and 1978 comparative national balance sheets will provide an essential basis for the quantitative analysis of the long term financial development of these nations in addition to national balance sheets for all large countries except brazil and china sectoral balance sheets for france germany great britain india japan and the united states in the postwar period are also included

thomas piketty and the rate of time preference using a standard model in which the individual consumption path is computed solving an optimal control problem we investigate central claims of piketty 2014 rather than r g confirmed in the data r g with being the rate of time preference matters if this condition holds and the elasticity of substitution in the production function is larger than one the capital share converges to one in the long run nevertheless this does not have major impact on the distribution of wealth the latter however converges to maximum inequality for heterogeneous time preferences or rates of interest either persistent or stochastic for the latter the presence of finite life times leads to a distribution with finite wealth inequality featuring fat tails

the wealth distribution in bewley economies with capital income risk abstract we study the wealth distribution in bewley economies with idiosyncratic capital income risk we show analytically that under rather general conditions on the stochastic structure of the economy a unique ergodic distribution of wealth displays a fat tail

restricting the trash trade in early 1999 the mayor of new york city announced a plan for exporting most of his city s waste about 13 000 tons per day to other states the responses escalated an already growing war of words about interstate waste shipments a pennsylvania state legislator bluntly called the mayor s plan irresponsible and the governor of new jersey labeled it a direct assault on her state a spokesperson for new york city s department of sanitation coolly staked out the city s position you can t stop interstate commerce if virginia is the least expensive place to deliver this solid waste then that is where it is going to go the response was swift various legislators joined environmental activists to send 50 pounds of trash to the mayor s office led by the governor s efforts the virginia general assembly subsequently responded with proposed legislation to restrict significantly imports of waste see r h melton 1998 virginia s legislative proposal came on the heels of numerous similar proposals by other states to which large shipments of waste are transported interstate shipments of waste involve almost the entire nation 47 states export waste and 44 states import waste and represent nearly 1 billion annually in disposal and transportation fees since the early 1990 s these shipments have increased by more than 30 percent as officials in importing states have sought to curb these flows the u s supreme court has repeatedly struck down their proposed restrictions as violations of the interstate commerce clause in response the congress has advanced proposals to exempt waste from jurisdiction of that clause to date however very little is known about the positive and normative effects of the various proposals to restrict municipal solid waste transshipments how are the effects of restrictions likely to be distributed among the owners of waste disposal facilities and the users of these services given that the northeast is a net exporter and the midwest is a net importer of waste are the effects likely to differ among regions of the country in this paper we model the interstate market for municipal solid waste and evaluate the potential economic effects of public policies proposed to restrict waste flows these restrictions include local and state requirements stipulating where waste must be landfilled prohibitions on the import or export of waste across state boundaries quantitative limits on these flows and extra fees levied on imported waste to our knowledge this research is the first to evaluate these proposals quantitatively we develop both a conceptual and a computable economic model of the use over time of spatially differentiated resources characteristics which well describe the nation s landfill facilities landfills rather than recycling or other disposal options are the dominant destination of most interstate shipments the model characterizes the efficient intertemporal allocation of spatially distributed waste disposal capacity among users who are also spatially distributed in addition

wealth inequality in the united states since 1913 evidence from capitalized income tax data this paper combines income tax returns with flow of funds data to estimate the distribution of household wealth in the united states since 1913 we estimate wealth by capitalizing the incomes reported by individual taxpayers accounting for assets that do not generate taxable income we successfully test our capitalization method in three micro datasets where we can observe both income and wealth the survey of consumer finance linked estate and income tax returns and foundations tax records wealth concentration has followed a u shaped evolution over the last 100 years it was high in the beginning of the twentieth century fell from 1929 to 1978 and has continuously increased since then the rise of wealth inequality is almost entirely due to the rise of the top 0 1 wealth share from 7 in 1979 to 22 in 2012 a level almost as high as in 1929 the bottom 90 wealth share rst increased up to the mid 1980s and then steadily declined the increase in wealth concentration is due to the surge of top incomes combined with an increase in saving rate inequality top wealth holders are younger today than in the 1960s and earn a higher fraction of total labor income in the economy we explain how our ndings can be reconciled with survey of consumer finances and estate tax data