de industrialisation and the balance of payments in advanced economies this paper defines de industrialisation as a secular decline in the share of manufacturing in national employment de industrialisation in this sense has been a widespread feature of economic growth in advanced economies in recent decades the paper considers briefly what explains this development and quantifies some of the factors responsible it then examines the experience of britain and america which are two countries that have combined rapid de industrialisation with a strong overall economic performance the paper considers both the domestic situation of manufacturing industry in these countries and its foreign trade performance it concludes by examining in detail the british balance of payments and documenting how improvements in the non manufacturing sphere have helped offset a worsening performance in manufacturing trade copyright 2004 oxford university press

a new theoretical analysis of deindustrialisation the analysis of deindustrialisation has been led by heterodox economists especially those in the structuralist and kaldorian traditions based on a conception of sectoral specificity and the role of manufacturing in growth sectors are not the units of marxian economic analysis but thinking through the meaning of sectors in marxian terms allows for an analysis of the meaning and implications of a change in sectoral structure deindustrialisation is the sectoral shift that has been most prominent in recent decades and which is likely to have significant implications for the future of capitalism this article develops an original marxian theorisation of deindustrialisation this conceptualisation includes a distinction between two forms of deindustrialisation as well as taking into account changes in sectoral structure the proposed typology considers whether such changes are associated with a shift between those activities that produce surplus value and those that do not or only a shift in the composition of surplus value producing activities the distinction between different forms of deindustrialisation allows for an arguably richer analysis of this phenomenon than in more narrowly sector based approaches

income elasticities of exports and imports a re examination of the empirical evidence it is conclusively shown that in times of world wide economic expansionceteris paribus developing countries balance of trade accounts improve but those of developed countries deteriorate

the physical dimension of international trade part 1 direct global flows between 1962 and 2005 abstract the physical dimension of international trade is attaining increased importance this article describes a method to calculate complete physical trade flows for all countries which report their trade to the un the method is based on the un comtrade database and it was used to calculate world wide physical trade flows for all reporting countries in nine selected years between 1962 and 2005 the results show increasing global trade with global direct material trade flows reaching about 10 billion tonnes in 2005 corresponding to a physical trade volume of about 20 billion tonnes adding both total imports and total exports the share from european countries is declining mainly in favour of asian countries the dominant traded commodity in physical units was fossil fuels mainly oil physical trade balances were used to identify the dominant resource suppliers and demanders australia was the principal resource supplier over the period with a diverse material export structure it was followed by mainly oil exporting countries with varying volumes as regards to regions latin america south east asian islands and central asia were big resource exporters mostly with increasing absolute amounts of net exports the largest net importers were japan the united states and single european countries emerging countries like the asian tigers with major industrial productive sectors are growing net importers some of them to an even higher degree than european countries altogether with the major exception of australia and canada industrialized countries are net importers and developing countries and transition countries are net exporters but there are important differences within these groups

balance of payments the harrod foreign trade multiplier and economic growth the european and north american experience 1970 85 1988 balance of payments the harrod foreign trade multiplier and economic growth the european and north american experience 1970 85 applied economics vol 20 no 12 pp 1635 1642

examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities part 2 review of input output models for the assessment of environmental impacts embodied in trade this paper offers a detailed review of recently described single and multi region input output models used to assess environmental impacts of internationally traded goods and services it is the second part of a two part contribution in part 1 turner k lenzen m wiedmann t and barrett j in press examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities part 1 a technical note on combining input output and ecological footprint analysis ecological economics we describe how to enumerate the resource and pollution content of inter regional and inter national trade flows with the aim to illustrate an ideal accounting and modelling framework for the estimation of ecological footprints a large number of such environment economic models have been described but only in the last few years models have emerged that use a more sophisticated multi region multi sector input output framework this has been made possible through improvements in data availability and quality as well as computability we identify six major models that employ multi sector multi region input output analysis in order to calculate environmental impacts embodied in international trade results from the reviewed studies demonstrate that it is important to explicitly consider the production recipe land and energy use as well as emissions in a multi region multi sector and multi directional trade model with global coverage and detailed sector disaggregation only then reliable figures for indicators of impacts embodied in trade such as the ecological footprint can be derived

the harrod foreign trade multiplier and economic growth in asian countries the validity of the harrod foreign trade multiplier for 11 asian countries is tested the results obtained generally support thrilwall s specification of the multiplier this suggests in an open economy relevant economic management is the factor that manipulates the income elasticities of exports and imports

the drivers of structural change the main goal of this paper is to provide an integrated survey of the literature devoted to identifying the drivers of structural change broadly defined as the process of reallocation of economic activity across the three broad sectors agriculture manufacturing and services using the ggdc 10 sector database this paper first presents the empirical facts associated with structural change in different regions of the world that is europe and the usa asia latin america and africa then reviews four determinants of structural change i changes in income ii changes in relative sectoral prices iii changes in input output linkages and iv changes in comparative advantage s via globalization and trade

growth and the external constraint lessons from the spanish case the present article attempts to determine the role played by the balance of payments constraint on economic growth in spain 1960 94 using cointegration techniques this empirical exercise also serves to reveal some shortcomings in the usual procedures for estimating thirlwall s law in particular the spanish case reveals how important it is to introduce a variable that expresses the competitiveness gains generated by improvements in quality of the goods and services into the export function it also demonstrates the inadequate simplification entailed in an a priori exclusion of relative prices in external equilibrium equation not taking these two aspects into consideration may give rise to an erroneous confirmation of thirlwall s law especially if as in the spanish case both effects offset each other finally if the aim is to analyse long term relationships between variables it would seem advisable to use procedures such as cointegration with variables in levels

the 45 rule revisited the purpose of this note is to update and reconsider the 45 rule or thirlwall s law by applying cointegration techniques to export equations based on national accounts data for 16 countries the income demand elasticities derived on this basis are fairly close to those found earlier whereas the relative price elasticities are much lower with the marshall lerner condition satisfied for only few of the 16 countries more important to the validity of the 45 rule is that the conditions for cointegration are not satisfied suggesting that the equations are misspecified and that current external accounts are non stationary when analysing this issue further it appears that the reasons for the apparent breakdown of the 45 rule can be traced to developments in the 1970s and 1980s when countries were exposed to major changes in their terms of trade and real effective exchange rates

tax competition and income redistribution an empirical analysis for switzerland tax competition is supposed to lead to thecollapse of the welfare state because first it willbecome difficult for a single jurisdiction to levy aredistribution tax upon the rich and mobile andsecond such a policy if undertaken in onejurisdiction will attract poor individuals from otherjurisdictions and erode internal redistributionpolicies in this paper the impact of personal incometaxes and transfers on residence decisions oftaxpayers is analyzed with swiss subfederal data therelationship of tax competition and the erosion of theswiss welfare state is tested with aggregate data onincome redistribution

pathways to a resource efficient and low carbon europe abstract various environmental footprint concepts have already been developed and applied in sustainability research however these analyses tend to remain restricted to historical observation samples at least in comparison with related research activities in other environmental policy domains like e g climate policy it seems that applications of integrated assessment tools represent rather seldom exceptions within the resource policy domain our paper is therefore intended to strengthen the related evidence base we present recent projections from the dynamic multi region input output mrio simulation model ginfors global inter industry forecasting system which provide an outlook on global development trends until the year 2050 our detailed material footprint and climate policy assessment indicates that a global agreement on a policy mix will allow a clear turnaround towards climate protection and a sustainable use of natural resources without deteriorating economic performance if the eu decides unilaterally to lead the way then this turnaround could also be achieved for the eu while the eu would also benefit economically from this pioneering role a third pathway towards a resource efficient and low carbon europe quantifies the environmental and economic impacts of a strong transitional change induced by european citizens commitments to far reaching sufficiency objectives

environmental and economic effects of post kyoto carbon regimes results of simulations with the global model ginfors abstract using the extensive and disaggregated global ginfors model consequences of different possible post kyoto regimes on the german and european economy and other major economies in the medium run until 2020 are depicted the approach is very extensive and detailed in comparison to already existing analyses this holds for the number of explicitly modelled countries 50 and 2 regions and 41 economic sectors input output tables the bilateral trade flows the detailed coverage of behavioural parameters the coverage of energy balances and co 2 emissions as well as for the number and precise economic political design of simulation runs global emissions will double until 2030 compared to 1990 levels without the existence of a far reaching climate regime after 2012 a unilateral commitment of the eu would only be a drop in the bucket which solely strengthens the credibility of the eu in international negotiations a stabilisation of global emissions in 2020 compared to 2010 which is consistent with the 2 target of the eu can only be achieved if all developed and at least the large emerging economies participate and if all possible existing market ready reduction technologies are used

quantities qualities and multiple public services in the tiebout model abstract this paper introduces a new more realistic characterization of local public services this characterization fits education parks and streets none of which are a pure samuelsonian good it is shown that tiebout s hypothesis holds for this new type of services provided correct user charges are adopted introducing several local services considerably affects the results the paper emphasizes the difference in tastes with regard to quality as opposed to quantity earlier literature is shown to apply to the role of quality and ignores the role of quantity the effect of the latter makes mixed communities more efficient than segregated ones it is shown that efficient allocation with mixed communities is an equilibrium in a costless mobility tiebout type setting

balance of payments constrained growth a rejoinder to professor thirlwall professor thirlwall has argued that the growth rate of a country is constrained by the requirement that the external current account must broadly balance he maintains that a country s growth can be analysed using a dynamic harrod trade multiplier and that a country s long run growth rate y will approximate to the ratio of the rate of growth of exports x to the income elasticity of demand for imports a in a recent article in this journal mcgregor and swales 1985 doubts were expressed about the theoretical and empirical grounds on which thirlwall makes these claims in his reply thirlwall argues that such doubts are unfounded he clarifies his theory on a number of points he argues that his theory was subjected to inappropriate empirical tests and whilst accepting that equation 1 can be derived from a strict neoclassical model he invites the reader to choose between the plausibility of the neoclassical story as against the keynesian alternative

the deindustrialisation tertiarisation hypothesis reconsidered a subsystem application to the oecd7 the diffusion of outsourcing both national and international and vertical fdis among manufacturing firms along with the higher integra tion of business services in manufacturing has recently led to question the empirical evidence supporting the deindustrialisation tertiarisation dt hypothesis rather than a real phenomenon it has been argued dt would be an apparent one mainly due to the reorganization of production across national and sectoral boundaries the empirical studies that have dealt with the topic so far have not been able to effectively rule out such possibility because of two main limitations the sectoral level of the analysis and or the national focus in order to overcome them the paper carries out an appreciative investigation of the actual extent of the dt occurred in the oecd area over the 80s and the 90s by moving from a sector to a subsystem perspective thus retaining both direct and indirect relations and by referring to a pseudo world of 7 oecd countries thus taking into account the global dimension of the phenomenon the results strongly support the dt hypothesis although the weight of business sector services in the manufacturing subsystem increased acting as a counterbalancing tendency to the manufacturing decline subsystem shares significantly decreased thus confirming dt as a more fundamental trend of modern economies

key drivers for unsustainable resource use categories effects and policy pointers abstract prevailing resource use patterns of the global socio industrial metabolism are unsustainable an increasing number of people globally require ever more materials including energy carriers land and water for rising living standards and lifestyles converging towards western industrialised patterns therefore these resources will continue becoming both scarcer and depleted while environmental impacts associated with their consumption e g run away climate change will continue to rise for effective resource policies drivers for such unsustainable resource use and their effects need to be better understood and mapped by means of meta analysis of more than 60 sources of relevant literature we identified a set of ten driver categories that affect unsustainable resource use inter alia prevailing consumption and production patterns use and design of infrastructure and technology underlying paradigms and world views resource prices and the level of knowledge and information of resource users cumulative effects of the drivers contribute for instance up to 30 of phosphorus loss from soil and around 30 of building energy loss globally although the data does not allow clear cut causal attribution of effects it enables the distinction between direct and indirect drivers in relation to a multi dimensional network of drivers causing unsustainable resource use resource policy should combine policy objectives and instruments into policy mixes to target key drivers and their interrelations while policy mixes need to respond to context specific driver settings targeting consumer behaviour emerges as a general driver focus of policy mixes combining different instrument types and implementing them in a time dynamic sequence can mitigate trade offs between different instruments and in the longer term increase feasibility of profound behaviour changes

local income redistribution a club theoretic analysis abstract this paper analyzes optimal income redistribution in a club model where interclub transfers are ruled out redistribution must proceed on a local level in heterogeneous clubs this assumption induces a trade off between equity and efficiency in that the efficiency loss associated with club heterogeneity must be borne in order for redistribution to occur the optimal club structure depends on society s evaluation of this trade off

how significant is intersectoral outsourcing of employment in south africa south africa like many other middle income countries as well as most upper income countries has seen an increase in services and fall in manufacturing as shares of total employment there has been speculation about the extent to which these changes actually represent a genuine structural shift as opposed to a statistical artifact deriving from the domestic outsourcing of activities from manufacturing to services very limited evidence is available as to how much of the apparent changes in the sectoral composition of employment are explained by intersectoral outsourcing this article develops a methodology using household and labor survey data to analyze the extent of intersectoral outsourcing of specific labor intensive activities in south africa from 1997 2007 it is shown that the relatively high growth in services employment is driven by expansion of employment of cleaners and security guards and in particular by outsourcing type reallocation of these activities from manufacturing and the public sector toward private services once outsourcing is accounted for employment seems to have grown at similar rates in manufacturing and in private services the analysis has implications for understanding changes in the sectoral structure of middle income economies and whether services employment is as dynamic as it appears to be copyright 2010 the author 2010 published by oxford university press on behalf of associazione icc all rights reserved oxford university press

empirical estimates of the direct rebound effect a review beginning with william stanley jevons in 1865 a number of authors have claimed that economically justified energy efficiency improvements will increase rather than reduce energy consumption jevons paradox is extremely difficult to test empirically but could have profound implications for energy and climate policy this paper summarises and critiques the arguments and evidence that have been cited in support of jevons paradox focusing in particular on the work of len brookes and harry saunders it identifies some empirical and theoretical weaknesses in these arguments highlights the questions they raise for economic orthodoxy and points to some interesting parallels between these arguments and those used by the biophysical school of ecological economics while the evidence in favour of jevons paradox is far from conclusive it does suggest that economy wide rebound effects are larger than is conventionally assumed and that energy plays a more important role in driving productivity improvements and economic growth than is conventionally assumed 2008 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

clubs local public goods and transportation models a synthesis abstract clubs local public goods and transportation models are analyzed within a unified model the emphasis is on the derivation of optimal allocation pricing and the size of the sharing group we derive the conditions under which optimal prices will yield surplus or deficit as well as those under which competitive provision will be efficient given heterogeneous tastes we prove that segregation according to tastes is generally efficient although several cases where this result does not hold are also discussed we show that the existing literature is unnecessarily restrictive and that the unified approach suggested here considerably extends the existing analysis of clubs local public goods and the transportation problems

profit maximizing clubs abstract we study a nash equilibrium among profit maximizing clubs which choose facility size and admission price the number of clubs is endogenous entry is deterred whenever the symmetric nash equilibrium with one additional firm would yield negative profit equilibrium exists with positive profit the equilibrium price is higher than the congestion price and the equilibrium number of clubs is bounded below by one fewer than the efficient number in general there will be too much entry than too little one can choose an economy sufficiently large that the equilibrium price is within epsilon of the competitive price

the rebound effect microeconomic definitions limitations and extensions abstract the rebound effect results in part from an increased consumption of energy services following an improvement in the technical efficiency of delivering those services this increased consumption offsets the energy savings that may otherwise be achieved if the rebound effect is sufficiently large it may undermine the rationale for policy measures to encourage energy efficiency the nature and magnitude of the rebound effect is the focus of long running dispute with energy economics this paper brings together previous theoretical work to provide a rigorous definition of the rebound effect to clarify key conceptual issues and to highlight the potential consequences of various assumptions for empirical estimates of the effect the focus is on the direct rebound effect for a single energy service indirect and economy wide rebound effects are not discussed beginning with khazzoom s original definition of the rebound effect we expose the limitations of three simplifying assumptions on which this definition is based first we argue that capital costs form an important part of the total cost of providing energy services and that empirical studies that estimate rebound effects from variations in energy prices are prone to bias second we argue that energy efficiency should be treated as an endogenous variable and that empirical estimates of the rebound effect may need to apply a simultaneous equation model to capture the joint determination of key variables third we explore the implications of the opportunity costs of time in the production of energy services and highlight the consequences for energy use of improved time efficiency the influence of time costs on the rebound effect and the existence of a parallel rebound effect with respect to time each of these considerations serves to highlight the difficulties in obtaining reliable estimates of the rebound effect and the different factors that need to be controlled for we discuss the implications of these findings for econometric studies and argue that several existing studies may overestimate the magnitude of the effect

the role of technology in market shares dynamics the paper presents the estimation of an empirical model of market share dynamics for five industrialized countries and 18 industries the emphasis is put on the importance of non price factors of competitiveness whereas most traditional explanations rest on the influence of relative prices among the former type of factor the role of variables reflecting technological advantage is privileged in particular the role of innovations has received considerable attention in the literature on international trade as well as the literature on endogenous growth in this spirit the paper introduces patent counts and investment as explanatory variables for the export market share the results show that non price variables have an important impact on the determinations of long run competitiveness

thirlwall s law and balance of payments constrained growth more on the debate the various criticisms that have levelled against thirlwall s law by mcgregor and swales are examined it is shown that their arguments are untenable the relationship between the necolassical law of one price and thirlwall s law is clarified thirlwall s law is not overwhelmingly rejected by the evidence as mcgregor and swales assert their suppression of the influence of the price term on the estimates used in the test proposed by mccombie is inappropriate their regression analyis is also mid specified and a preferable specification provides no support for their conclusions they repeatedly argue that thirlwall s modele cannot account for changes in market shares and the that the estimated income elasticities of demand for exports and imports cannot capture the effects of non price competition this was shown to be erroneous by mccombie and the reasons advanced are further elaborated mcgregor and swales provide another interpretation of the relationship between thirlwll s law and the harrod foreign tr

growth in global materials use gdp and population during the 20th century the growing industrial metabolism is a major driver of global environmental change we present an assessment of the global use of materials since the beginning of the 20th century based on the conceptual and methodological principles of material flow accounting mfa on the grounds of published statistical data data compilations and estimation procedures for material flows not covered by international statistical sources we compiled a quantitative estimate of annual global extraction of biomass fossil energy carriers metal ores industrial minerals and construction minerals for the period 1900 to 2005 this period covers important phases of global industrialisation and economic growth the paper analyses the observed changes in the overall size and composition of global material flows in relation to the global economy population growth and primary energy consumption we show that during the last century global materials use increased 8 fold humanity currently uses almost 60 billion tons gt of materials per year in particular the period after wwii was characterized by rapid physical growth driven by both population and economic growth within this period there was a shift from the dominance of renewable biomass towards mineral materials materials use increased at a slower pace than the global economy but faster than world population as a consequence material intensity i e the amount of materials required per unit of gdp declined while materials use per capita doubled from 4 6 to 10 3 t cap yr the main material groups show different trajectories while biomass use hardly keeps up with population growth the mineral fractions grow at a rapid pace we show that increases in material productivity are mostly due to the slow growth of biomass use while they are much less pronounced for the mineral fractions so far there is no evidence that growth of global materials use is slowing down or might eventually decline and our results indicate that an increase in material productivity is a general feature of economic development

the assessment british economic cgowth over the long run it is now conventional wisdom that for some hundred years or so british growth and especially productivity performance have been deeply disappointing when compared with that of other advanced countries more contentious but nevertheless widely held is the belief that the failures of the post war economy are deeply rooted in the past presenting successive governments both with an unenviable legacy and a most daunting task in their aspiration to remedy britain s relative economic decline thus eatwell 1982 claims that the weakness of the british economy is the cumulative product of the entire history of britain since the end of the nineteenth century when it first became evident that b ritain was unable or unwilling to adapt to a competitive world in which her pre eminence could no longer be taken for granted certainly complaints about the poor quality of industrial management trade union obstacles to productivity advance the inappropriate and inadequate education system in the uk and slowness to develop and apply advanced technology were commonplace at the turn of the century as they have been in recent decades furthermore the twentieth century has seen a constant and often painful need to restructure economic activity in the face of a declining share of world trade and changing comparative advantage whilst in terms of olson s thesis 1982 suffering the sclerotic effect of special interest groups undisrupted by war foreign occupation or totalitarian government

assessing global resource use and greenhouse emissions to 2050 with ambitious resource efficiency and climate mitigation policies achieving sustainable development requires the decoupling of natural resource use and environmental pressures from economic growth and improvements in living standards g7 leaders and others have called for improved resource efficiency along with inclusive economic growth and deep cuts in global greenhouse emissions however the outlooks for and interactions between global natural resource use resource efficiency economic growth and greenhouse emissions are not well understood we use a novel multi regional modeling framework to develop projections to 2050 under existing trends and three policy scenarios we find that resource efficiency could provide pro growth pro environment policies with global benefits of usd 2 4 trillion in 2050 and ease the politics of shifting towards sustainability under existing trends resource extraction is projected to increase 119 from 2015 to 2050 from 84 to 184 billion tonnes per annum while greenhouse gas emissions increase 41 both driven by the value of global economic activity more than doubling resource efficiency and greenhouse abatement slow the growth of global resource extraction so that in 2050 it is up to 28 lower than in existing trends resource efficiency reduces greenhouse gas emissions by 15 20 in 2050 with global emissions falling to 63 below 2015 levels when combined with a 2 c emissions pathway in contrast to greenhouse abatement resource efficiency boosts near term economic growth these economic gains more than offset the near term costs of shifting to a 2 c emissions pathway resulting in emissions in 2050 well below current levels slower growth in resource extractions and faster economic growth

thirlwall law and balance of payments constrained growth further comment on the debate this paper reviews the debate that has occurred in applied economics over thirlwall s law mccombie 1989 mcgregor and swales 1985 1986 thirlwall 1986 the empired evidence concering the validity of the law is re assessed using a variety of tests including that suggested by mccombie 1989 and the new data set provided by bairam 1988 the law is overwhelmingly rejected by the evidence contrary to the conclusions of mccombie and bairam the rationale for the assumption of constant relative prices which is required to derive thirlwall s law is reconsidered the original law of one price rationale renders the approach incoherent the more recent rationale of sticky oligopolistic price improves the internal consistency of the model but necessitates consideration of non price competition however neither the theory underlying thirlwall s law nor empirical tests of the law property account for this in principle the law cannot be employed to distinguish between demanding constrained and supply co

does ecologically unequal exchange occur the hypothesis of ecologically unequal exchange posits that low and middle income developing nations maintain an ecological deficit with wealthy developed nations exporting natural resources and high impact commodities thereby allowing wealthy economies to avoid operating ecologically impactful industries at home in this survey we assess the footprint of consumption of 187 countries using eight indicators of environmental pressure in order to determine whether or not this phenomenon occurs we use input output analysis with a new high resolution global multi region input output table to calculate each trading pair s balance of trade in biophysical terms of ghg emissions embodied water and scarcity weighted water content air pollution threatened species human appropriated net primary productivity total material flow and ecological footprint we test three hypotheses that should be true if ecologically unequal exchange occurs one the inter regional balance of trade in biophysical terms is disproportional to the balance of trade in financial terms we find this is true though not strongly so two exports from developing nations are more ecologically intensive than those from developed nations we find this is true three high income nations disproportionately exert ecological impacts in lower income nations we find this is false high income nations are mostly exporters not importers of biophysical resources

foreign direct investment and de industrialisation the purpose of this study is to discuss the various issues regarding de industrialisation and to systematically analyse the causes of this phenomenon in addition the effect of the recent increase in foreign direct investment on de industrialisation will be analysed unlike extant studies this study employs a more reliable method of estimation known as the generalised method of moments system for establishing the importance of foreign direct investment fdi with regard to de industrialisation for a general assessment of the different factors of de industrialisation including fdi this study classifies the causes of de industrialisation in oecd countries into external and internal factors as a result the analysis has proved that not only internal and external factors are major factors of de industrialisation fdi inflow and outflow are also major factors

static versus dynamic specifications and the harrod foreign trade multiplier the validity of the harrod foreign trade multiplier is tested using new econometric techniques the equations obtained still support the conclusions drawn from the results obtained in the past

running out of steam manufacturing in malaysia this article examines the process of deindustrialisation in developing countries looking at the case of malaysia it provides a framework to examine how industrial structure and domestic technological capabilities are affected by the wider challenges of late industrialisation changes in global accumulation and domestic class formations it discusses the emerging evidence of malaysia s premature deindustrialisation and how this is the result of broader accumulation strategies that were primarily driven by internal factors related to the emergence of a malay middle class and supported by changes in global accumulation processes related to the development of global production networks and financialisation

innovation and trade performance in the united kingdom a popular explanation for the u k s poor trade performance in the postwar period is that insufficient attention was paid to the quality of goods offered to consumers the authors explore the role of both price and quality factors in determining the net trade balances of a number of u k manufacturing and service industries particular attention is paid to the role of innovation used empirically as a proxy for product improvement the findings show considerable support for the view that an advanced industrial country like britain needs to continually upgrade its products to avoid erosion of its domestic and international market shares

imperfect markets and the properties of macro economic environmental models as tools for policy evaluation abstract economic environmental models are deeply disaggregated macro economic systems which are used in economic environmental studies to explain the emissions of pollutions and the extraction of resources concerning the economic base two approaches can be differentiated the neoclassical and the keynesian paradigm models based on the neoclassical paradigm are depicting equilibrium of perfectly competitive markets whereas the models based on the keynesian paradigm have been developed from a critical position vis a vis neoclassical theory stressing the importance of market imperfections the paper at hand shows in its theoretical part that this fundamental difference to a large extent is responsible for differences in modeling results concerning the impact of policy instruments on the economy and the environment furthermore the two paradigms prefer different ways of parameterization which has consequences for the empirical validation of the models the construction of the references and the effects of environmental policy the paper at hand further shows that the theoretical arguments allow explaining the totally different and partly opposite results of concrete policy simulations in the polfree project where the large scale economic environmental models exiomod neoclassical and ginfors keynesian have been used

the consequences of mrs thatcher for u k manufacturing exports this article sets out to study whether the dramatic events that took place in the u k economy since 1979 can be shown to have had any effects on certain crucial parameters that determine the export performance of the u k manufacturing sector a number of export models are examined over the post 1979 period and all reveal a certain amount of systematic parameter variation in particular estimates of the world income elasticity of demand for u k manufacturing exports show an upward drift when this drift is explicitly modeled using a spline function approach to allow time varying parameters the data do not reject the hypothesis that this income elasticity has risen from its traditional postwar value of around 0 7 to around unity in 1986 this model is applied to explain export performance of both aggregate u k manufacturing as well as of individual manufacturing industries copyright 1989 by royal economic society

service competitiveness and urban innovation policies in the uk the implications of the london paradox wood p service competitiveness and urban innovation policies in the uk the implications of the london paradox regional studies the policy models currently employed in british cities to promote urban economic innovativeness and competitiveness echo national policies by being science manufacturing and technology based yet the most powerful driver of both modern uk economic success and regional and urban inequality has been london based innovation this does not depend on local technological initiatives but on labour intensive knowledge based processes especially within the financial and business services this paper examines the importance of service based innovation and competitiveness in the english urban system dominated by london and its implications for urban innovation policies these currently offer little support to other uk cities either in gaining from london s experience of service led success or challenging its dominance over the most innovative tradable services wood p les po

explaining deindustrialization how affluence productivity growth and globalization diminish manufacturing employment1 this study analyzes why the world s most economically advanced countries have deindustrialized over the last few decades previous research focuses on three causal factors 1 rising consumer affluence and its propensity to increase demand for services more than for manufactured goods 2 faster productivity growth in the manufacturing sector relative to other sectors and 3 expanding trade linkages between the north and the south of the global economy the relative importance of these factors however is not fully understood because previous research has not tested all of these explanations simultaneously nor considered the indirect channels through which global trade may cause deindustrialization this study tests the three factors with two way fixed effects regression models and panel data on 18 oecd countries from 1970 to 2003 the results indicate that each factor makes significant contributions to deindustrialization and that global trade exerts both direct and indirect effects on employment

decomposing brazilian manufacturing industry dynamics in the mid 2000s macroeconomic factors and their sectoral impacts abstract the manufacturing industry s loss in participation phenomena called deindustrialization has been observed for the brazilian economy for a while and seems to have intensified from mid 2000s however the literature has not developed a consistent or integrated analysis of this process we have used a detailed simulation model to identify how macroeconomic factors such as exchange rate labor costs and household consumption have contributed to manufacturing dynamics our results indicate that the macroeconomic scenario explains a large portion of the manufacturing industry s participation loss the rise in households consumption and investment important factors in this period were responsible for dampening of the pressures coming from the currency appreciation and the workforce costs benefiting some industrial sectors but not avoiding the manufacturings participation loss

economic growth the harrod foreign trade multiplier and the hicks super multiplier as we saw in chapter 2 the post keynesian view of economic growth denies that the postwar economic performance of the majority of the advanced countries has been seriously constrained by the growth of factor supplies even during the long boom of 1950 73 when the growth of output of the advanced countries in aggregate was double that of the historic norm labour shortages were never a limiting factor there was either sufficient disguised unemployment in the non manufacturing sectors or enough immigration to satisfy the demand for labour kindleberger 1967 the rate of capital accumulation is never a long run constraint on economic growth as investment is as much a result of the expansion of output as its cause kaldor 1970 the evidence in support of these conditions has been summarised in chapter 2

changes in the united kingdom s natural relations in terms of society s metabolism and land use from 1850 to the present day abstract in this paper we present our understanding of how society and nature have interacted in the course of history in terms of society s metabolic interchange with the biophysical environment presenting a theoretical model we begin by focusing on the interface between society and nature society s natural relations as conceptualized by the idea of metabolism which draws upon marxist theory complemented by a systems approach the concept of metabolism portrays society as a system which has to establish and maintain a permanent throughput of energy and matter to produce and maintain society s material components the amount of resource flow is operationalized by using material and energy flow accounting methods empirically these methods are applied to the uk s economy in a time series approach from 1850 to the present day we discuss different aggregates of inputs such as domestic material extraction foreign trade of materials energy input and additionally give an account of land use change obviously these changing natural relations are linked to socio economic activities hence we make a first attempt to discuss different periods of socio economic development by drawing from a regulation approach and try to link them to physical indicators such as direct material and energy input and domestic material consumption dmc thereby we hope to contribute to a historical understanding of socio economically driven environmental change within the framework of ecological economics

structural changes cointegration and the empirics of thirlwall s law thirlwall s law establishes a relation between the long run growth rate the growth of exports and the long run income elasticity of imports the estimation of this parameter requires cointegration techniques which in turn require a large span of data thus exposing the estimates to risks of structural changes while this problem has been recognized in the literature the evidence produced is still partial being concerned with a very limited number of countries and in some respects unsatisfactory in this article we fill this gap by assessing thirlwall s empirical regularity on a sample of 22 organization for economic cooperation and development oecd countries using econometric techniques that allow for the presence of a shift of unknown date in the long run parameters the results are generally supportive of thirlwall s hypothesis and allow us to reconcile and qualify the evidence provided in the existing literature

the impact of surges in net private capital inflows on manufacturing investment and unemployment abstract we use local projection methods to examine the dynamic response of surges in net private capital inflows on the output and employment shares of manufacturing the investment output ratio and the unemployment rate high income countries are studied separately from emerging economies both from asia and latin america our sample covers the years from 1970 to 2010 we find that surges in high income countries do not magnify the trend toward deindustrialization however the persistent decline in the investment to gdp ratio and the rise in the overall unemployment rate suggest that surges may negatively affect longer run growth prospects and employment opportunities in these countries in middle income asian countries surges tend to induce deindustrialization in both output and employment in the medium run but they do not lower the investment to gdp ratio in middle income latin america surges speed up deindustrialization lower investment and raise economy wide unemployment

thirlwall s law and balance of payments constrained growth a comment on the debate 1989 thirlwall s law and balance of payments constrained growth a comment on the debate applied economics vol 21 no 5 pp 611 629

decoupling global environmental pressure and economic growth scenarios for energy use materials use and carbon emissions in recent decades economic growth and increased human wellbeing around the globe have come at the cost of fast growing natural resource use including materials and energy and carbon emissions leading to converging pressures of declining resource security rising and increasingly volatile natural resource prices and climate change we ask whether well designed policies can reduce global material and energy use and carbon emissions with only minimal impacts on improvements in living standards we use a novel approach of combined economic and environmental modelling to assess the potential for decoupling for 13 world regions and globally we apply a production territorial and consumption approach to discuss regional differences in natural resource use and carbon emissions across three stylized policy outlooks a reference case with no significant changes to environment and climate policies a high efficiency outlook involving a global carbon price rising from 50 to 236 constant price per tonne of co2 between 2010 and 2050 and improvements in resource efficiency rising from 1 5 historically to between 3 5 and 4 5 in the scenarios and a medium efficiency outlook midway between the no change and high outlooks we find that global energy use will continue to grow rapidly under all three scenarios from 17 billion tonnes of oil equivalent toe in 2010 to between 30 and 36 billion toe carbon emissions would be considerably lower with a global carbon price less than half the level of the reference case 29 37 billion tonnes of co2 instead of 74 billion tonnes and also material use would grow much more slowly under a carbon price and significant investment to increase resource efficiency 95 instead of 180 billion tonnes of materials we find that oecd economies have significant potential to reduce their material throughput and carbon emissions with little impact on economic growth and that developing economies such as china could expand their economies at much lower environmental cost globally the effects of very strong abatement and resource efficiency policies on economic growth and employment until 2050 are negligible our study suggests that decarbonization and dematerialization are possible with well designed policy settings and would not contradict efforts to raise human wellbeing and standards of living the research demonstrates the usefulness of scenarios for unpacking environmental and economic outcomes of policy alternatives the findings have important implications for future economic opportunities in a highly resource efficient and low carbon global economy to set human development and achieving the sustainable development goals on a more resilient path

thirlwall and balance of payments constrained growth this paper outlines the theory which thirlwall uses to determine the growth of domestic income and argues that crucial elements of this theory appear to be very weak the empirical evidence presented by thirlwall to support his argument for balance of payments constrained growth is considered