the determinants of chinese visitors to australia a dynamic demand analysis although china has progressively become an important inbound tourism market for australia its demand elasticities have been little studied to date this study examines the determinants of chinese visitors to australia using a dynamic time series estimator interesting findings include a high income elasticity as a source of the continuous doubledigit growth rates in chinese arrivals that australia has experienced over the past two decades together with relatively high total trip price elasticities for both short run and long run a trend of chinese outbound to australia is also identified from a policy perspective the results confirm that keeping a low cost of visiting australia both ground and travel costs is a good strategy to secure greater numbers of chinese tourists

devaluation and the j curve some evidence from ldcs within the international trade literature it is not uncommon to find arguments about whether devaluation will improve the trade balance it is argued that the flows of goods respond only with time lags to changes in the exchange rate the j curve terrn is used to describe the movement over time of the trade balance it may deteriorate at first and improvement may come later this paper presents a method by which one could detect the existence of the j curve the method is applied to four developing countries the empirical evidence supports the pattern of movemnent described by the j curve a major policy option for a country facing a persistent balance of payments deficit is said to be devaluation of its currency within the international trade literature it is not uncommon to find arguments about whether devaluation will improve the trade balance or the balance of payments for example proponents of the elasticities approach describe the necessary and sufficient conditions for an improvement in the trade balance in terms of elasticities of demand and supply referred to as the marshall lerner condition while there is abundant empirical evidence to suggest that these conditions are indeed met at least for industrial countries there have been circumstances under which 2 devaluation has not been successful for example one might wonder why the u s trade balance deteriorated so much in 1972 despite the devaluation of the dollar in 1971 this unfavorable effect of devaluation on the trade balance is termed the j curve phenomenon received for publication august 23 1984 revision accepted for publication november 26 1984 the university of wisconsin milwaukee i would like to thank two anonymous referees for their valuable comments on the initial draft of this paper 1 proponents of the absorption approach e g alexander 1952 describe how devaluation may change the terms of trade increase production and switch expenditures from foreign to domestic goods thus improving the trade balance international monetarists argue that devaluation reduces the real value of cash balances and or changes the relative price of traded and nontraded goods thus improving both the trade balance and the balance of payments 2 for an cstimate of the elasticities see houthakker and magee 1969 and warner and kreinin 1983 the former study provides the elasticities estimates under fixed exchange rates and the latter under floating rates this content downloaded from 157 55 39 17 on wed 31 aug 2016 04 39 37 utc all use subject to http about jstor org terms

tourism demand forecasting models choice of appropriate variable to represent tourists cost of living abstract price is generally regarded as a major determinant of demand tourism has two price elements the cost of travel to the destination and the cost of living for tourists in the destination previous studies where econometric forecasting models have been developed for international tourism demand usually take the consumer price index in a country to be a proxy for the cost of tourism in that country owing to lack of appropriate data this article attempts to evaluate the performance of proxy variables compared with a specific tourists cost of living variable within the context of tourism demand forecasting models

a simple model of voice we think of voice as a means of information aggregation within groups operating in a variety of settings we explore how the characteristics of groups and their leaders influence voice in relatively homogeneous groups members farthest away from the leader have the best incentives to provide information and their voice tends to moderate policy decisions in large heterogeneous groups where leaders cannot identify individual members the possibilities for informational exchange are severely limited and any communication that exists pushes policies farther to the extreme

cointegration analysis of german and british tourism demand for greece abstract germany and great britain are traditionally two of the most important sources of tourism for greece the purpose of this paper is to investigate changes in the long run demand for tourism to greece by these two countries in order to explain the demand for tourism we are using a number of leading macroeconomic variables including income in origin countries germany and great britain tourism prices in greece and transportation cost and exchanges rates between the three countries annual data from the three countries covering the period from 1960 to 2000 are employed augmented dickey fuller test for unit root is examined in the univariate framework and johansen s maximum likelihood procedure is used to test the cointegration method and to estimate the number of cointegrating vectors of var model error correction models are estimated to explain german and british demand for tourism to greece

remodeling international tourism demand old theory and new evidence abstract the purpose of this study is to advance the tourism demand theory by excluding simultaneous effects of exchange rates and prices in empirical models formulating an alternative pricing modus operandi consistent with recent research in the area and demonstrating the efficacy of the use of an industrial production index ipi as a proxy for income a panel fully modified ordinary least squares fmols method is employed to estimate the inbound tourism demand for turkey study findings suggest that the inclusion of exchange rates and prices as mutually exclusive components can be misleading the ipi is not a good proxy for income and country specific coefficients need to be analyzed to accurately explain determinants of tourism demand for countries in the panel

search theoretic models of the labor market a survey we survey the literature on search theoretic models of the labor market we show how this approach addresses many issues including the following why do workers sometimes choose to remain unemployed what determines the lengths of employment and unemployment spells how can there simultaneously exist unemployed workers and unfilled vacancies what determines aggregate unemployment and vacancies how can homogeneous workers earn different wages what are the tradeoffs firms face from different wages how do wages and turnover interact what determines efficient turnover we discuss various modeling choices concerning wage determination and the meeting process including recent models of directed search

bilateral j curve between india and her trading partners india a land of over one billion people and one of the newly emerging industrial powers in the world is going through a slow but steady metamorphism for centuries india has played a major role in the international trade it was not uncommon to see her ships carrying silk and spices across the arabian seas and bringing back machine made textile invasions of india first by mughals and latter by the british through the east india company were all trade oriented india s presence in the world trade is relatively small at this time but is gaining momentum after independence in 1947 india for a brief period experimented with socialism the five year plans were mainly focused towards building infrastructure and development of small scale agriculture based industries the industrial development even though extremely important for growth played a secondary role the foreign investment was encouraged but only in the selected sectors of the economy however threat of nationalization a large bureaucracy corruption lack of understanding of the indian business practices and the requirement that a major share holder must be an indian national discouraged foreign capital investment in india during 1991 1992 india adopted a policy of trade liberalization to attract foreign capital and to encourage non resident indians to invest in their home country government of india established a separate unit within the home ministry whose main function was to expedite processing of applications india also relaxed the requirement that a major partner be an indian national india provided export subsidies to the exporters in terms of cash as well as foreign exchange so that they could import machines and raw materials exports responded to the trade liberalization and increased from 44 041 crores of rupees in 1991 1992 to 141 603 crores in 1998 1999 where one crore is equivalent to ten million in us dollar terms at a current exchange rate of 42 48 rupees per dollar this translates to an increase from 10 37 billion to 33 34 billion over eight years india also anticipates that through a major increase in the information technology mainly software industry her exports will increase to 90 billion by 2005 the trade liberalization has been accompanied by changes in the monetary policies the inflation rate has been reduced from about 12 to 9 per year the interest rates have declined from 14 to 10 and the exchange rate has been allowed to respond to market forces as a result from 1991 1992 to 1998 1999 the rupee has declined from 19 62 rupees per dollar to 42 48 rupees per dollar by december 2000 rupee had further devalued to 46 25 per dollar with a hope that it will further boost india s exports and improve her trade balance however the impact of currency depreciation on the trade balance is not instantaneous indeed there is ample evidence in the literature that after currency depreciation the trade balance worsens in the short run before improving in the long run since this pattern of movement of the trade balance over time resembles the letter j magee 1973 labelled it the j curve phenomenon magee argued that after devaluation contracts that are in transit at old exchange rates dominate the short run response of the trade balance over time new contracts at new prices begin to exert their favourable impact at this stage elasticities may increase leading to an eventual improvement in the trade balance of course the delayed response could also be due to lags in the process of increasing the production of exportables junz and rhomberg 1973 have identified five lags namely recognition lags decision lags delivery lags replacement lags and production lags only after the realization of these lags the trade balance could improve early studies that tried to investigate the impact of currency depreciation on the trade balance relied upon estimating the marshall lerner condition the condition

household formation inequality and the macroeconomy this paper examines how family structure can influence the macroeconomy it uses a simple model where the key features are taken as exogenous and shows that the sorting of individuals into families can have important quantitative effects on human capital formation inequality and income it then discusses how these features can be endogenized and suggests avenues

tourism demand modelling and forecasting a review of recent research abstract this paper reviews the published studies on tourism demand modelling and forecasting since 2000 one of the key findings of this review is that the methods used in analysing and forecasting the demand for tourism have been more diverse than those identified by other review articles in addition to the most popular time series and econometric models a number of new techniques have emerged in the literature however as far as the forecasting accuracy is concerned the study shows that there is no single model that consistently outperforms other models in all situations furthermore this study identifies some new research directions which include improving the forecasting accuracy through forecast combination integrating both qualitative and quantitative forecasting approaches tourism cycles and seasonality analysis events impact assessment and risk forecasting

the use of cpi for tourism prices in demand modelling abstract the non fare components or tourism prices are often proxied by consumer price indices cpi in tourism demand models the argument for this is that tourism prices move in close concert with general consumer prices it is not immediately obvious that this is true as tourist spending differs from general consumer spending this paper investigates the evidence for the use of cpi for tourism prices employing a variety of methods and data for 10 important tourist destinations price series for major tourist expenditure items were estimated these were found with a few exceptions to correlate very highly with the destination s cpi the high correlations persisted even after linear time trend effects were removed from the series in the case of australia detailed data on tourist origins numbers spending breakdowns and on price changes were used to derive sound tourism price indices for major origins of tourists to australia the tourism price series were found to correlate very highly with the australian cpi the results confirm that it is reasonable to use cpi as a proxy for tourism prices in demand models however interpretation of the estimated coefficient is problematical

determinants of the demand for us exports and imports of tourism this study estimates real income and relative price elasticities of demand for us exports and imports of tourism with annual data from 1973 2002 overall there is empirical support for the model of tourism expenditure with one exception the estimated parameters have the correct signs and most are significantly different from zero the us trading partners appear to be more sensitive to the determinants of international tourism than is the us the greater response of the us trading partners to changes in real income may account for the us running surpluses on its tourism balance during 16 of the 29 years of our sample period

opinions as incentives we study costs and benefits of differences of opinion between an adviser and a decision maker even when they share the same underlying preferences over decisions a difference of opinion about payoff relevant information leads to strategic information acquisition and transmission a decision maker faces a fundamental trade off a greater difference of opinion increases an adviser s incentives to acquire information but exacerbates the strategic disclosure of any information that is acquired nevertheless when choosing from a rich pool of opinion types it is optimal for a decision maker to select an adviser with some difference of opinion centralization of authority is essential to harness these incentive gains since delegation to the adviser can discourage effort

education segregation and marital sorting theory and an application to the uk abstract this paper presents a model of the intergenerational transmission of education and marital sorting parents matter both because of their household income and because their human capital determines the distribution of a child s disutility from making an effort to become skilled we show that an increase in segregation has potentially ambiguous effects on the proportion of individuals that become skilled in the steady state and hence on marital sorting the personal and household income distribution and welfare we calibrate the steady state of our model to uk statistics we find that an increase in the correlation of spouses in their years of education will bring about a small increase in the proportion of skilled individuals when the relative supply of skilled individuals is variable at the family level and a decrease when this supply is fixed ex ante utility of an unborn individual increases in the first case and decreases in the second the welfare effect of increased sorting is negative for unskilled individuals and positive for skilled individuals increased segregation always leads to an increase in welfare inequality between skilled and unskilled individuals

forecasting international tourist flows to macau abstract the vector autoregressive var modelling technique is used to forecast tourist flows to macau from eight major origin countries regions over the period 2003 2008 the existing literature shows that the var model is capable of producing accurate medium to long term forecasts and also separate forecasts of the explanatory variables are not required a further justification for using the var technique is that it permits an impulse response analysis to be performed in order to examine the ways in which the demand for macau tourism responds to the shocks in the economic variables within the var system the implications of this analysis are discussed the forecasts generated by the var models suggest that macau will face increasing tourism demand by residents from mainland china since the needs of chinese tourists tend to be different from those from other origin countries regions especially western countries the business sectors in macau need to pay considerable attention to catering for the needs of chinese tourists

is there a j curve abstract if the response of the value of the trade balance to movements in the real exchange rate is described by a j curve then a real depreciation initially worsens a balance of trade deficit only improving it over time this paper investigates whether a j curve can be detected in the last twenty five years of american data no statistically reliable evidence of a stable j curve is detected the model is checked extensively to support this finding

the j curve a literature review due to lag structure currency devaluation is said to worsen the trade balance first and improve it later resulting in a pattern that resemble the letter j hence the j curve phenomenon since its introduction by magee in 1973 brooking papers on economic activity 1 pp 303 25 a large number of studies have attempted to test the phenomenon using different techniques and different model specifications the results are at best ambiguous and deserve to be collected together for the future generation of researchers and graduate students this paper fills such a vacuum in the literature by reviewing the j curve related empirical papers

social mobility and redistributive politics just like economists voters have conflicting views about redistributive taxation because they estimate its incentive costs differently we model rational agents as trying to learn from their dynastic income mobility experience the relative importance of effort and predetermined factors in the generation of income inequality and therefore the magnitude of these incentive costs in the long run left wing dynasties believing less in individual effort and voting for more redistribution coexist with right wing dynasties this allows us to explain why individual mobility experience and not only current income matters for political attiitudes and how persistent differences in perceptions about social mobility can generate persistent differences in redistribution across countries

cheap talk and bogus network externalities in the emerging technology market many emerging technologies exhibit path dependent demands driven by positive network feedback such network effects profoundly impact marketing strategists thinking in today s network economy however the significant network externalities expected by many people often fail to materialize in the emerging technology market we analyze this phenomenon in the context of a technology distribution channel by studying cheap talk strategies under information asymmetry we show that incentive compatible contracts are essential for achieving credible information transmission in our model the better informed technology vendor has an incentive to inflate the retailer s ex ante belief of network externalities when a wholesale price contract is adopted when properly termed revenue sharing contracts are implemented there are information efficient cheap talk equilibria where truthful information transmission is mutually beneficial when the vendor s information is imperfect even revenue sharing contracts cannot guarantee credible information transmission if there is significant prior belief disparity between the vendor and the retailer this study demonstrates how information inefficient equilibria e g information blockage arise because of the conflict of interest or the conflict of opinion among channel members it also explores the role of cheap talk in facilitating channel coordination

beauty vs earnings gender differences in earnings and priorities over spousal characteristics in a matching model abstract i develop a model of marriage matching where males and females care about two distinct characteristics of their spouse beauty and earnings each individual s beauty is exogenous but earnings depend on human capital investments made by each individual prior to entering the marriage market i show that even if males and females constitute ex ante identical populations with identical underlying preferences and equal access to human capital investment and labor market opportunities there can still exist an equilibrium where on average one gender invests more in human capital than the other and moreover members of one gender are more likely to prioritize beauty over earnings in a spouse while members of the other gender are more likely to prioritize a potential spouse s earnings over beauty

cheap talk with an exit option the case of discrete action space abstract we consider a cheap talk model with the sender s exit option we show that in the case of discrete action space it can be the case that there exists an informative equilibrium if and only if the sender s bias is sufficiently small or sufficiently large the latter case is sharply contrasting with the existing results of cheap talk

a tourism demand function for the okanagan bc abstract this study examines the relative importance of the existing determinants of tourism demand in the okanagan because national coefficients cannot be used intercnageable with regional coefficients it is hypothesized that the values of the okanagan demand elasticities are likely to be lower than that of the province and the nation five major markets for okanagan tourism with identified and separate regressions run to determine the relative importance of the determinants of demand for okanagan tourism with respect to these markets empirical results indicate that national coefficient will tend to overestimate the regional coefficient values contrary to the results of other studies for the nation as a whole the exchange rate and travel cost did not seem to be significant determinants of okanagan tourism receipts

an empirical analysis of the influence of macroeconomic determinants on world tourism demand abstract this paper considers three econometric models to determine the relationship between macroeconomic variables and tourism demand tourism demand is measured by the inbound visitor s population and also by on the ground expenditures the database is an unbalanced panel of 218 countries over the period 1995 2012 there is evidence that an increase in the world s gdp per capita a depreciation of the national currency and a decline of relative domestic prices do help boost tourism demand the world s gdp per capita is more important when explaining arrivals but relative prices become more important when we use expenditures as the proxy for tourism demand we cannot reject the hypothesis of a relative prices unitary elasticity of expenditures additionally we have partitioned our data by income level and by continent results are robust in the first partition but less robust in the second although the main conclusions still hold finally we draw policy implications from our findings

the demand for tourism in north east england with special reference to northumbria an empirical analysis abstract this paper examines the trends of tourism in north east england in particular we focus on the area of northumbria to show the potential of tourism for economic development in the region within this analysis we concentrate on the demand for tourism in the region and in particular we are concerned with tourism by uk residents in northumbria domestic tourism the long run relationship between domestic tourism demand and a number of economic factors effecting this demand is considered using the johansen and juselius 1990 1992 multivariate cointegration analysis an error correction model is then proposed for short run forecasting of domestic demand for tourism in northumbria

competition in tourism among the mediterranean countries this paper examines tourism competition among the mediterranean countries with particular emphasis on greece the estimated model includes as explanatory variables an income index a price index of the host country a price index of the competitors spain portugal and italy and exchange rate the results show that the main determinants of greece s tourism demand are both price indexes and exchange rate they also show that spain seems to be greece s main competitor

a spillover based theory of credentialism i propose a model in which credentials such as diplomas are instrumentally valuable to workers the model avoids an important criticism of standard job market signalling models by tying a worker s wage to their output a worker s productivity is influenced by the skills of their co workers where such skills arise from an ability augmenting investment that is made prior to matching with co workers credentials allow workers to demonstrate their investment to the labour market thereby allowing them to match with high skill co workers in equilibrium despite the positive externality associated with a worker s investment i show how overinvestment is pervasive in equilibrium

impact of exchange rate uncertainty on trade flows evidence from commodity trade between the united states and the united kingdom previous studies that investigated the impact of exchange rate volatility on the trade flows employed aggregate trade data and standard estimation techniques they provided mixed results in this paper we use disaggregated import and export data for 177 commodities traded between the united states and the united kingdom to investigate whether volatility of the real bilateral dollar pound exchange rate has any detrimental effect on trade flows at the commodity level additionally we employ the bounds testing approach to cointegration and error correction modelling that is suitable for the models used mostly because it does not require pre unit root testing and variables in the model could be stationary non stationary or a combination of the two in most trade flow models estimated we found a negative effect of exchange rate volatility on commodity trade

strategic communication networks in this paper we consider situations in which individuals want to choose an action close to others actions as well as close to a payoff relevant state of nature with the ideal proximity to the common state varying across the agents before this coordination game with heterogeneous preferences is played a cheap talk communication stage is offered to players who decide to whom they reveal the private information they hold about the state the strategic information transmission taking place in the communication stage is characterized by a strategic communication network we provide a direct link between players preferences and the strategic communication network emerging at equilibrium depending on the strength of the coordination motive and the prior information structure equilibrium strategic communication networks are characterized in a very tractable way and compared in term of efficiency in general a maximal strategic communication network may not exist and communication networks cannot be ordered in the sense of pareto however expected social welfare always increases when the communication network expands strategic information transmission can be improved when group or public communication is allowed and or when information is certifiable

the long run impact of exchange rate regimes on international tourism flows abstract notwithstanding the systematic inclusion of an exchange rate variable of some form in studies examining international tourism flows hardly any research has been carried out to test for a possible exchange rate regime effect drawing from recent advances in exchange rate regime classifications this paper begins to fill this gap by investigating the impact of exchange rate regimes on international tourism flows the study employs a system generalized methods of moments sys gmm estimation for tourist arrivals on a panel of 27 organization for economic co operation and development oecd and non oecd countries for the period 1980 2011 the results identify multiple exchange rate regime effects and support the importance of maintaining a relatively stable exchange rate to attract international tourist arrivals

bilateral j curve between the uk vis a vis her major trading partners currency depreciation is said to worsen the trade balance first before resulting in an improvement yielding a short run pattern labelled the j curve phenomenon while early studies tested the j curve by using aggregate trade data a few recent studies have employed bilateral data mostly between the us and her major trading partners in this paper we extend the literature by considering the experience of the uk we test the phenomenon between the uk and her twenty major trading partners by employing data over 1973q1 2001q3 period in most instances we find no support for the j curve in the short run in the long run only in five cases has the exchange rate had significant impact on the bilateral trade balance

the j curve and nafta evidence from commodity trade between the us and mexico the north american free trade agreement nafta was predicted to have a substantial impact on the us mexico trade especially on specific importing and exporting industries in this article we use annual industry level export and import data from 1962 to 2004 to discern both the short and long run effects of real exchange rate depreciation on the mexico us trade balance as well as the effects of nafta on this trade we find that peso depreciation has a positive long run effect on 24 of 102 mexican industries and a negative short run effect on 19 of 102 industries only a small fraction 7 of 102 industries show any support for the j curve hypothesis nafta has had a significant effect on a significant number of the industries however

public protests and policy making technological advances and the development of social media have made petitions public protests and other form of spontaneous activism increasingly common tools for individuals to influence decision makers to study these phenomena in this article i present a theory of petitions and public protests that explores their limits as mechanisms to aggregate information the key assumption is that valuable information is dispersed among citizens through petitions and protests citizens can signal their private information to the policy maker who can then choose to use it or not i first show that if citizens individual signals are not sufficiently precise information aggregation is impossible no matter how large is the population of informed citizens even if the conflict with the policy maker is small i then characterize the conditions on conflict and the signal structure that guarantee information aggregation when these conditions are satisfied i show that full information aggregation is possible as the population grows to infinity when they are not satisfied i show that information aggregation may still be possible if social media are available

determinants of demand for international tourist flows to turkey abstract this article describes the development and findings of a set of models used to identify the most important of the following selected variables influencing international tourist flows to turkey per capita income relative prices relative exchange rate promotional expenditure the turkish government has invested a substantial amount in promoting foreign tourism and special events eg political unrest the demand for travel was measured both by the number of tourists and by the total tourist expenditure data were obtained from secondary sources and analysis was by least squares multiple regression income price and exchange rate were found to be important factors but the impact of promotional expenditure was minimal

disagreement and learning about reforms when it comes to economic reforms in developing countries many economists agree on broad objectives broad objectives however can be pursued in different ways and policy experimentation is often indispensable for learning which alternative works locally we propose a theoretical model to study this societal learning process the model explores the role of disagreeing beliefs about what works it suggests that such disagreement can stall the societal learning process and cause economic stagnation although everyone knows that growth promoting reforms do exist our analysis is motivated by the observation of a negative relationship between disagreement and economic growth among poorer countries

waiting to persuade i analyze a sequential bargaining model in which players are optimistic about their bargaining power measured as the probability of making offers but learn as they play the game i show that there exists a uniquely predetermined settlement date such that in equilibrium the players always reach an agreement at that date but never reach one before it given any discount rate if the learning is sufficiently slow the players agree immediately i show that for any speed of learning the agreement is delayed arbitrarily long provided that the players are sufficiently patient therefore although excessive optimism alone cannot cause delay it can cause long delays if the players are expected to learn

economic reform voting and local political intervention evidence from india abstract this paper uses the indian tariff reforms of the early nineties to estimate how voters hurt by economic reforms respond regions more hurt by the tariff reform increased their support for both the party that initiated their suffering and parties with similar preferences in favor of poverty centric policies this response is surprisingly sophisticated where voters did not simply punish incumbents for negative income shocks and correctly discounted initial anti reform stances by opposition parties that later turned out to be false furthermore the strength of this voting response varied with both geography and local political incentives suggesting that the economic effects of reforms might vary substantially in large and decentralized democracies

a model of electoral competition with incomplete information a model of two candidate electoral competition is developed in which voters are uncertain about the policy either candidate would implement if elected candidates simultaneously announce policy positions from which voters attempt to infer the true positions the candidates would adopt announcing a position different from the true position is costly to the winning candidate with these costs increasing as the difference between the true policy and the announced policy increases a refinement of the sequential equilibrium concept is used to describe the behavior of candidates and voters

transplants and implants the economics of self improvement this article examines equilibrium self improvement and marriage proposal strategies in a two sided search model with nontransferable utility singles are vertically differentiated some make better marriage partners than others a complete characterization of equilibrium is provided it is shown there are two externalities to self improvement decisions further these externalities may support multiple pareto rankable equilibria by encouraging everybody to self improve society can create a situation where everybody is forced to improve to remain acceptable but a preferred equilibrium may exist where there is less costly self improvement

the impact of crisis events and macroeconomic activity on taiwan s international inbound tourism demand abstract the number of inbound tourism arrivals directly impacts the tourism industry and the government agency investments therein therefore policymakers need to improve their understanding of how crisis events affect the demand for inbound tourism from the first quarter of 1996 to the second quarter of 2006 taiwan experienced four major disasters at approximately two year intervals these disasters included the asian financial crisis in 1997 the 21st september 1999 earthquake the 11th september 2001 attacks in the united states and the outbreak of sars in 2003 this paper examines the impact of crisis events on the demand for tourism in order to establish a better understanding of changes and trends in the demand for international tourism this paper uses the auto regression distributed lag model by pesaran shin and smith pesaran m h shin y smith r j 2001 bounds testing approaches to the analysis of long run relationship journal of applied econometrics 16 289 326 to examine the negative impact of these disasters on the demand for inbound tourism this paper also explores the influence of variables such as foreign exchange rates incomes relative prices and transportation costs on the dynamics of the demand for inbound tourism this paper finds that a long term equilibrium exists among all variables indicating that macroeconomic variables may be used to determine the rise or fall of the number of inbound tourism arrivals income and foreign exchange rates are both significant explanatory variables in terms of incurred losses the number of inbound tourism arrivals suffered the greatest decline during the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome sars followed by the 21st september 1999 earthquake and the 11th september 2001 attacks the impact of the asian financial crisis was relatively mild this paper finds that any impact on safety whether domestic or international negatively affects tourism demand the impact of financial crises on tourism demand is less significant ensuring the safety and health of tourists is the key to maintain demand for inbound tourism

endogenous games and equilibrium adoption of social norms and ethical constraints abstract we consider a situation in which games are formed endogenously in two senses 1 there is a pregame in which agents choose to learn a subset of all feasible strategies and can then employ only these strategies in subsequent play and 2 agents choose their game partners through a costly search process we show that at any subgame perfect equilibrium agents will constrain their action sets in the pregame in such a way that a single social norm prevails thus all agents in a society will abide by the same ethical standard although what standard this will be cannot be predicted we also show that these are essentially the only spe outcomes we suggest that this provides at least a partial explanation for experimental observations that agents apparently choose strategies that do not maximize their payoffs

is tourism an engine for economic recovery theory and empirical evidence abstract the purpose of this study is to examine the causal relationships between tourism development and economic growth for this purpose the dumitrescu and hurlin 2012 technique was employed to analyze the casual link between tourism development and economic growth in seven european countries the results showed that there is bidirectional causality between growth in tourism receipts and economic growth suggesting that economic growth and tourism development are interdependent and that tourism development stimulates economic growth and vice versa in these countries theoretical and practical implications are discussed within the realms of growth conservation feedback and neutrality hypotheses

too much investment a problem of endogenous outside options this paper shows that when agents on both sides of the market are heterogeneous varying in their costs of investment ex ante investments by firms and workers or buyers and sellers more generally may be too high when followed by stochastic matching and bargaining over quasi rents the overinvestment is caused by the fact that low cost agents by investing more can increase the value of their outside option and thus shift rent away from high cost investors numerical simulations show that overinvestment can occur given parameter values calibrated to oecd labour markets

competition in persuasion we study symmetric information games where a number of senders choose what information to communicate we show that the impact of competition on information revelation is ambiguous in general we identify a condition on the information environment i e the set of signals available to each sender that is necessary and sufficient for equilibrium outcomes to be no less informative than the collusive outcome regardless of preferences the same condition also provides an easy way to characterize the equilibrium set and governs whether introducing additional senders or decreasing the alignment of senders preferences necessarily increases the amount of information revealed

investment and competitive matching we study markets in which agents first make investments and are then matched into potentially productive partnerships equilibrium investments and the equilibrium matching will be efficient if agents can simultaneously negotiate investments and matches but we focus on markets in which agents must first sink their investments before matching additional equilibria may arise in this sunk investment setting even though our matching market is competitive these equilibria exhibit inefficiencies that we can interpret as coordination failures all allocations satisfying a constrained efficiency property are equilibria and the converse holds if preferences satisfy a separability condition we identify sufficient conditions most notably quasiconcave utilities for the investments of matched agents to satisfy an exchange efficiency property as well as sufficient conditions most notably a single crossing property for agents to be matched positive assortatively with these conditions then forming the core of sufficient conditions for the efficiency of equilibrium allocations

the balance of trade and exchange rates theory and contemporary evidence from tourism abstract the purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of exchange rate depreciations and appreciations on the tourism trade balance specifically we employed linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag ardl cointegration techniques to analyze the extent to which currency depreciations and appreciations affect the united states u s bilateral tourism trade with canada mexico and the united kingdom u k the results showed that the depreciation of the u s dollar subsequently improves the u s trade balance with all three trading partners however while the appreciation of the u s dollar deteriorates the u s bilateral tourism trade balance with canada and the u k it does not ultimately affect the u s bilateral tourism trade with mexico in the long term these results provide evidence contradicting the j curve theory supporting the postulations of the ml condition theoretical and policy implications are discussed within the realms of j curve theory marshall lerner ml condition international trade and tourism

knowledge development in tourism tourism demand research abstract could tourism demand research be criticized as data hammering with little or no concern for theory development and testing this paper addresses this question by analyzing published studies on tourism demand for their contribution to knowledge building in the field results reveal that tourism demand research remains in its infancy

the short term price effect of a tourist tax through a dynamic demand model the case of the balearic islands abstract tourist taxes have become an important source of revenue for many tourist destinations taxes on accommodation are upheld by their proponents as a way of shifting the local tax burden on to non residents while the travel industry claims that these levies do significant damage to their level of competitiveness the objective of this paper is to identify the market s sensitivity to price changes in travel related services or groups of services assuming that one of the main factors that influences travel decisions is the information on the destination that consumers receive in order to include this effect the study applies a combination of a diffusion model and a traditional economic utility theory model to tourists visiting the balearic islands spain from the united kingdom germany france and the netherlands

competitive search equilibrium with multidimensional heterogeneity and two sided ex ante investments abstract we analyze a competitive price taking search model where workers and firms make costly investments e g in education and physical capital respectively before they enter the labor market the environment features transferable utility and symmetric information a key novelty with respect to existing work is that we allow for multidimensional heterogeneity on both sides of the market the probabilities of finding and filling different jobs and the corresponding wages are determined endogenously in equilibrium we show that constrained efficient allocations can be determined as optimal solutions to a linear programming problem whereas the prices supporting these allocations and the associated expected payoffs for workers and firms correspond to the solutions of the dual of that linear program we use this characterization to show that an equilibrium exists and is constrained efficient under very general conditions the fact that linear programming techniques are used for the structural estimation of frictionless matching models suggests that our framework is potentially useful for empirical studies of labor markets and other markets where search frictions are prevalent

marriage and the city search frictions and sorting of singles this paper develops and tests a model where cities play an important role as marriage markets the idea is simple cities are dense areas where singles can meet more potential partners than in rural areas to enjoy those benefits they are willing to pay a premium in terms of higher housing prices once married the benefits from meeting more potential partners vanish and married couples move out of the city attractive singles benefit most from a dense market and are therefore more likely to move to the city those predictions are tested and confirmed with a unique danish data set

education matching and the allocative value of romance societies are characterized by customs governing the allocation of non market goods such as marital partnerships we explore how such customs affect the educational investment decisions of young singles and the subsequent joint labour supply decisions of partnered couples we consider two separate matching paradigms for agents with heterogeneous abilities one where partners marry for money and the other where partners marry for romantic reasons orthogonal to productivity or debt these generate different investment incentives and therefore have a real impact on the market economy while marrying for money generates greater investment efficiency romantic matching generates greater allocative efficiency since more high ability individuals participate in the labour market the analysis offers the possibility of explaining cross country differences in educational investments and labour force participation based on matching regimes

specialization and competition in marriage models abstract i present a marriage model that includes pre marital investments in human capital individuals expect the future role specialization in marriage the specialization effect but at the same time before marriage individuals have the incentive to invest in order to make themselves more attractive the competition effect the interaction of two effects generates multiple equilibria no equilibria are ex ante efficient when the benefits of role specialization exist the competition effect is a source of coordination failure in the match formation this result stands in contrast to those of other models in which the competition effect leads to efficiency in some equilibrium

pre match investment with frictions the paper explores an environment in which agents are motivated to make unproductive investments with the sole aim of improving their matching opportunities in contrast to existing work i add frictions by allowing the investment to be imperfectly observed the analysis allows for a deeper understanding of the trade off inherent in related models investments waste resources but facilitates more efficient matching patterns i show that greater frictions i do not always lead to inferior matching patterns and ii can force the economy into to a pareto preferred equilibrium

modelling us tourism demand for european destinations abstract an almost ideal demand system model is used to examine us demand for tourism in european destinations the model provides policy makers with useful information concerning the sensitivity of tourism demand to changes in relative prices exchange rates and expenditure the results show that price competitiveness is important for us demand for france italy and spain but is relatively unimportant for the uk france and italy are regarded as substitutes by us tourists as are spain and italy as us expenditure rises the market shares of spain and the uk decline while france and italy benefit the demand modelling and forecasting indicate that in the absence of a tourism price index the choice between alternative price indices does not have a significant effect on the results

informational lobbying and political contributions abstract interest groups can potentially influence political decision makers by offering contributions and by providing relevant information that sways the decision in the group s favor what mix of these two instruments should an interest group choose and how does the use of one instrument affect the effectiveness of the other in this paper we identify an information externality that raises the cost of offering contributions and show that this indirect search cost reduces the group s incentive to gather information when contributions are allowed furthermore we analyze how competition among lobby groups as providers of information and contributions affect the choice and effectiveness of the instruments we show that the information externality rewards the group that can abstain from information search and focus its influence on contributions

marriage as a rat race noisy premarital investments with assortative matching we study the efficiency of premarital investments when parents care about their child s marriage prospects in a large frictionless marriage market with nontransferable utility stochastic returns to investment ensure that equilibrium is unique we find that generically investments exceed the pareto efficient level unless the sexes are symmetric in all respects girls will invest more than boys if their quality shocks are less variable than shocks for boys or if they are the abundant sex the unique equilibrium in our continuum agent model is the limit of the equilibria of finite models as the number of agents tends to infinity

does competition solve the hold up problem in an environment in which heterogeneous buyers and sellers undertake ex ante investments the presence of market competition for matches provides incentives for investment but may leave inefficiencies namely hold up and coordination problems this paper shows using an explicitly non cooperative model that when matching is assortative and investments precede market competition buyers investments are constrained efficient while sellers marginally underinvest with respect to what would be constrained efficient however the overall extent of this inefficiency may be large multiple equilibria may arise one equilibrium is characterized by efficient matches but there can be additional equilibria with coordination failures

matching finding a partner for life or otherwise how do job worker and husband wife relationships form and why do some matched pairs subsequently separate economists and game theorists are in the process of developing and applying an equilibrium explanation of match formation and separation based on the principle of voluntary pairing under competitive conditions the purpose of this paper is to assess the current state of these developments the general existence of patnership structures with the property that no one has an incentive to separate has been established these equilibrium structures maximize aggregate value over the set of all feasible match structures in the transferable utility case according to this pure theory of matching competition for partners can be expected to yield equilibrium match structures that are both stable and socially efficient at least under conditions of frictionless certainty search theoretic models that take account of meeting costs and initial uncertainty about match values have been developed to explain sepa

tourism revenues and residential foreign investment flows in spain a simultaneous model the aim of this work is to analyse the determinants of the tourism revenues and the residential foreign investment in spain during the period 1967 1998 to do so a two equation simultaneous model is proposed to be estimated the specification highlights the simultaneous and direct interdependence of the tourism revenues and the residential foreign investment flows this result contrasts with the traditional standard specification of the international tourism demands in spain nonlinear simultaneous estimations cointegration techniques and a battery of specification tests are the econometric tools applied in the work

an econometric study of tourism demand the aids model of us and european tourism in mediterranean countries the almost ideal demand system aids model was used to estimate tourism expenditure allocation by us and west european countries among a range of mediterranean destinations the approach has the advantage of an explicit basis in consumer expenditure theory and by modelling the changes in the budget shares of expenditure among destinations provides new information relative to that provided by the traditional single equation approach the estimated model was econometrically satisfactory although symmetry and homogeneity were rejected in line with the findings of past studies of consumer demand the expenditure elasticities demonstrated considerable differences in tourism demand preferences between origin countries and between traditional and newly developing destinations the own and cross price elasticities indicated the importance of effective prices in determining the allocation of expenditure among destinations

competitiveness of international tourism in taiwan us versus japanese visitors this paper intends to identify the factors determining the relative competitiveness of taiwan s international tourism among a group of seven east asian countries using data on visitors from the usa and japan the major message which emerged from this study is that there are sharp differences between factors affecting us visitors and japanese visitors specifically we found 1 the decline of taiwan s market share in japan has been mainly due to appreciation of nt dollars and changing preferences whereas they are not crucial factors in the us market 2 qualitative supply side factors indeed could have decisive influences on the market share however their effect is again origin dependent the open door policy of china is the only important determinant of taiwan s competitiveness in the us market while it has no impact on the japanese visitors

a paradigm shift to a new strategy for small island economies embracing demand side economics for value enhancement and long term economic stability abstract the article answers three interrelated questions pertaining to small island economies and tourism development under the condition of globalization 1 why is tourism relevant for small island economies 2 why is a supply perspective inappropriate for these economies and 3 why is a demand perspective more appropriate for small island economies in the era of globalization empirical realities indicate that small islands have performed well in specializing as tourist destinations despite their size constraints and resulting disadvantage in economic terms the caribbean region is an appropriate proxy for small island economies however globalization may be taking its toll on sectoral specialization in the caribbean as a development strategy the supply side strategy seems to have lost its effectiveness to reverse this trend the study proposes the implementation of new tourism strategies based on a demand focused approach to sustain value enhancement these strategies have important managerial and policy implications

a dynamic model of tariffs output and employment under flexible exchange rates abstract a portfolio balance model of the open economy with imperfectly flexible wages and rational expectations is used to analyze the macroeconomic effects of commercial policy previous analyses have led to the counterintuitive and almost inconceivable conclusion that under flexible exchange rates a tariff is contractionary by considering a tariff in a dynamic setting and focusing on the process of adjustment it is shown that there may exist a tradeoff between a tariffs short run and long run effects in certain circumstances a tariff imposed under flexible exchange rates increases output and employment initially while reducing them subsequently