making the same mistake again or is this time different the world faces an economic crisis of unprecedented proportions but much of the policy response has certainly not lacked for precedent national governments and international organisations including the international monetary fund imf have looked to crises of the past for solutions to the present and austerity has become a familiar theme the inability to effectively resolve the current crisis however gives rise to the question is this time different this article provides a broad overview to the origins and development of the recent economic crisis and the resort to policies of austerity although there is historical precedent for the resort to austerity such as the uk treasury view during the 1920s and 1930s this time things are different many of the current problems are deeply rooted and reflect the impact of the shift towards free market economics that started in the 1970s 2 the origins of the crisis since the beginning of the 1970s the private sector finance in particular has reorganised on an increasingly global scale it has innovated in terms of both structure and products and it has experienced significant growth as tridico 2012 this issue shows this financialisation was characterised by a ballooning of stock exchanges as many firms decided not only to list their shares but also to become involved in speculative finance in response to pressures on firms to maximise shareholder value together with the progressive erosion of worker and trade union rights and influence labour markets became more flexible and real wages stagnated concurrently profits rebounded leading to burgeoning inequality in this context aggregate demand and consumption were bolstered by easy credit and the wealth effects of speculative bubbles first in stocks and shares and then in housing

the crash of the knowledge economy this paper advances the hypothesis that some of the roots of the present crisis are to be found in the present institutions of the knowledge economy while protectionism is seen as a possible dangerous outcome of the crisis the extent of protectionism inherent to the strengthening and globalisation of intellectual property rights iprs associated in particular with the signing of the trade related aspects of intellectual property rights agreement is not generally perceived as one of its possible causes indeed iprs have acted as super tariffs they have particularly raised the cost of investments for countries that had neither abundant cheap labour nor high amounts of intellectual property resources moreover iprs may have later exerted negative effects even on ip rich firms as the proliferation of conflicting rights has led firms to increasingly inhibit each other s investments the resulting investment strike has manifested itself as a saving glut and has mainly affected the usa in a situation aggravated by inadequate regulations if intellectual monopolies are one of the causes of the crash the remedies should not only focus on monetary policy financial regulations or even on standard keynesian policies aggregate demand stimulus should be coupled with policies that decrease the level of intellectual monopolisation of the economy

fiscal policies in the world economy this paper uses a two country general equilibrium model of the world economy in order to analyze the effects of budget deficits and government spending on world rates of interest consumption and international indebtedness it demonstrates the difference between the effects of fiscal expenditures and tax cuts as well as between the effects of current policies and expected future policies it is shown that the qualitative effects of fiscal policies depend on whether the country introducing the policies runs a surplus or a deficit in its current account following the positive analysis of the short run and the steady state effects the paper concludes with a normative analysis of the welfare implications of budget deficits

the limits of central bank policy economic crisis and the challenge of effective solutions the paper examines the development of central bank policy prior to and during the recent financial crisis the argument is made that it contained multiple failures that not only generated constraints on adequately identifying and addressing the crisis but also contributed to that crisis those failures derived from a combination of theory and institutional practice specifically the use of forms of inflationary targeting based on broad adherence to the taylor rule framework and the use of versions of a conventional theoretical macro model ctmm were both problematic this was particularly so in the way policy was focused through issues of the primacy of price stability the institutional arrangements of the central banks were also problematic the division of labour between the central banks and other regulatory bodies and the limited information available within a liberalised finance system hampered efforts to fully appreciate the gravity of the situation partly due to the constraints imposed by the thinking and strategies that had been developed the central banks never got to grips with the fundamental problems of the crisis interest rate policy and liquidity provision were undertaken in ways that steadily radicalised the approaches of the banks but always in a way that was event led and always in ways that could not resolve those fundamental problems the nature of the crisis highlights the importance of transforming the approach and institutional framework of the central banks relatedly it highlights the need for a more keynesian and heterodox approach to economics within decision making bodies at central banks

too big to manage us megabanks competition by innovation and the microfoundations of financialization disagreements over the systemic implications the future of financialization can be traced in part to the absence of sustained attention to the role of banking firms in driving this secular shift forward that is the financialization literature lacks an adequate microfoundation accounting for the drivers of financialization processes solely at the macro level overlooks the problems of how these processes came about and whether they are sustainable this paper addresses this explanatory gap arguing that a key independent microeconomic driver of increasing financialization did exist the incessant efforts by money centre banks in the usa to break out of depression era restrictions on their size activities and markets these banks growth strategies in turbulent times led to an institutional meso shift the rise of a megabank centred shadow banking system that now shapes global financial architecture even while operating in ways that are unsustainable in short too big to manage megabanks are at the heart of the fragility and instability of the economy today

structural causes of the global financial crisis a critical assessment of the new financial architecture we are in the midst of the worst financial crisis since the great depression this crisis is the latest phase of the evolution of financial markets under the radical financial deregulation process that began in the late 1970s this evolution has taken the form of cycles in which deregulation accompanied by rapid financial innovation stimulates powerful financial booms that end in crises governments respond to crises with bailouts that allow new expansions to begin as a result financial markets have become ever larger and financial crises have become more threatening to society which forces governments to enact ever larger bailouts this process culminated in the current global financial crisis which is so deeply rooted that even unprecedented interventions by affected governments have thus far failed to contain it in this paper we analyse the structural flaws in the financial system that helped bring on the current crisis and discuss prospects for financial reform

relative wealth status seeking and catching up abstract according to our studies if relative wealth appears in the reduced form utility function for example because of status seeking then the poor will catch up with the rich if the elasticity of marginal utility of relative wealth is greater than the elasticity of marginal utility of consumption we give sufficient conditions for the final distribution of wealth to be independent of the initial distribution and conditions for saddlepoint stability in a two class model

tax policy and aggregate demand management under catching up with the joneses this paper examines the role for tax policies in productivity shock driven economies with catching up with the joneses utility functions the optimal tax policy is shown to affect the economy countercyclically via procyclical taxes i e cooling down the economy with higher taxes when it is overheating in booms and stimulating the economy with lower taxes in recessions to keep consumption up thus models with catching up with the joneses utility functions call for traditional keynesian demand management policies but for rather unorthodox reasons

income distribution and the size of the financial sector a sraffian analysis the recent expansion of the financial sector has been accompanied by deregulation an acceleration of financial innovation and changes in income distribution the size of these phenomena has attracted the attention of the literature a large part has analysed the relationship between financial development and inequality arguing that the former tends to reduce the latter for a review of this literature see demirguc kunt and levine 2009 it moves from the claim that perfect credit markets reduce inequality by bringing about the efficient exploitation of personal qualities material endowments and the growth potentials of the economy credit market imperfections hold back the achievement of these results but are counteracted by deregulation and financial innovation which tend to eliminate rent positions

models of currency crises with self fulfilling features the discomfort a government suffers from speculation against its currency determines the strategic incentives of speculators and the scope for multiple currency market equilibria after describing an illustrative model in which high unemployment may cause an exchange rate crisis with self fulfilling features the paper reviews some other self reinforcing mechanisms recent econometric evidence seems consistent with the practical importance of these mechanisms

keeping up with the ageing joneses in this paper we consider the implications of relative consumption externalities in the blanchard yaari overlapping generations framework unlike most of the macroeconomic literature that studies this question the differences between agents and thus in their relative position persist in equilibrium we show in our fixed employment model that consumption externalities lower consumption and the capital stock in long run equilibrium a result in sharp contrast to the recent findings of liu and turnovsky 2005 in addition we solve for the intertemporal path of the economy to investigate its response to demographic shocks specifically to permanent changes in the birth and death rates

the demand for ldc exports of manufactures estimates from hong kong exports of manufactures from developing countries are generally believed to be sensitive to changes in the level of income in the developed countries their major market this belief is grounded on both casual observation especially from the experience of recent recessions and on extensive econometric evidence of low price elasticities and high income elasticities of demand for ldc exports in developed countries this paper argues that both casual observation and previous econometric evidence are misleading the aim of the paper is to show the order of magnitude of the bias contained in previous econometric estimates of price and income elasticities of demand for ldc exports of manufactures due to neglect of supply side influences previous econometric work has neglected the supply side of ldc exports for the simple reason that it is difficult to model it is difficult to model properly the supply of aggregate ldc exports since the determinants of export supply differ from country to country even for a single country modelling export supply is complicated since in addition to foreign demand and domestic supply exports are determined in part by domestic demand for exportables furthermore in most ldcs the incentive to export is strongly influenced by complex and continually changing industrial and trade policy measures there is one major exception hong kong one of the developing world s largest and most successful exporters of manufactured goods the manufacturing sector in hong kong is almost completely specialised exporting 95 of output consequently domestic demand plays no part in determining the volume of exports furthermore factor markets and the manufacturing sector are almost completely free from government intervention the main exception being the textile export restraints imposed at the insistence of importing countries the voluntary restraint agreements vras to which hong kong is subject no doubt affect the composition of exports but not necessarily the volume of aggregate exports if resources in the restrained sectors can easily be redeployed elsewhere in the economy judging from past export growth rates the vras do not appear to have had a significant effect on aggregate export growth in hong kong the results reported below also suggest that hong kong has effectively circumvented the trade barriers it faces the hong kong manufacturing sector in many ways resembles a firm in the

status the distribution of wealth and growth we analyze a simple model of endogenous growth in which individuals care about both consumption and their rank in the distribution of wealth we show that the steady growth rate of the economy increases with both the strength of the status seeking motive and the initial equality of the wealth distribution contrary to the basic model of endogenous growth the equilibrium growth rate is not necessarily smaller than in the social optimum and we identify the circumstances under which the two coincide

a developing country view of the current global crisis what should not be forgotten and what should be done macroeconomic theory will surely be affected by the current global crisis there are signs that some old theories and insights will have a comeback this paper argues that among them economists should not forget the lessons that have been learnt from three decades of several financial crises in developing countries we emphasise two important lessons first preventing crises in developing countries requires not only the regulation of domestic financial systems but also a consistent set of macroeconomic policies in particular we stress the need for consistency between the exchange rate rule the capital account regime and the domestic financial market regulations second financial crises in developing countries tend to worsen both the balance of payments and the fiscal balance traditional adjustment policies tend to exacerbate the recessive trends in output and employment this is just the opposite of what is required and what governments in developed countries are able to do developing countries should push for an agenda that helps them deal with these problems

an unproductive labour view of finance the present paper discusses the role of the financial sector in a capitalist economy arguing that the huge increase in its weight economic and otherwise in the last decades is not justified by the importance of its contribution to economic growth the point is developed going back to the classical concepts of productive and unproductive labour there are two dimensions of these concepts that we discuss the first links the social efficiency of the financial sector to its role in the reproduction process crucially distinguishing basic from non basic uses we argue that many financial services usually seen as services to production really consist of the provision of gambling facilities and thereby have to be considered at best as luxury goods when evaluated according to its reproductive capability the service of arranging a gambling house cannot be seen as producing social value a second sense in which the discussion of productive and unproductive labour casts light on the nature of some financial services is that connected to the conception of pure circulation costs as different from costs of production proper the amount of circulation costs varies with the varying intensity of the realisation problem they are not defined by the production technique and are in this sense arbitrary copyright oxford university press

optimal income tax in the presence of status effects abstract the existence of distortions from individuals competing to attain social status by using consumption signals justifies some measure of income tax as a counter acting distortion the question posed here is whether it also constitutes a reason for a more progressive income tax schedule the answer is found to be broadly negative if progressiveness is interpreted as a more convex tax schedule unless the rich are more concerned with status seeking than the poor on the other hand status seeking makes the optimal tax schedule steeper so that redistribution is increased essentially the analysis of status seeking based on a signaling approach confirms and strengthens the existing view of an optimal tax schedule and can be incorporated into the diamond american economic review 88 1998 83 95 approach

a bayesian approach to optimal monetary policy with parameter and model uncertainty abstract this paper undertakes a bayesian analysis of optimal monetary policy for the u k we estimate a suite of monetary policy models that include both forward and backward looking representations as well as large and small scale models we find an optimal simple taylor type rule that accounts for both model and parameter uncertainty for the most part backward looking models are highly fault tolerant with respect to policies optimized for forward looking representations while forward looking models have low fault tolerance with respect to policies optimized for backward looking representations in addition backward looking models often have lower posterior probabilities than forward looking models bayesian policies therefore have characteristics suitable for inflation and output stabilization in forward looking models

learning and optimal monetary policy to conduct policy efficiently central banks must use available data to infer or learn the relevant structural relationships in the economy however because a central bank s policy affects economic outcomes the chosen policy may help or hinder its efforts to learn this paper examines whether real time learning allows a central bank to learn the economy s underlying structure and studies the impact that learning has on the performance of optimal policies under a variety of learning environments our main results are as follows first when monetary policy is formulated as an optimal discretionary targeting rule we find that the rational expectations equilibrium and the optimal policy are real time learnable this result is robust to a range of assumptions concerning private sector learning behavior second when policy is set with discretion learning can lead to outcomes that are better than if the model parameters are known finally if the private sector is learning then unannounced changes to the policy regime particularly changes to the inflation target can raise policy loss considerably

capital market crises liberalisation fixed exchange rates and market driven destabilisation everyone knows the epigraph to anna karenina happy families are all alike every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way tolstoy may well have been right about families but the extension of his judgement to economies hit by capital market crises distinctly fails their causes and unhappy consequences in latin america and asia over the past 20 years have many elements in common

expectations and the stability problem for optimal monetary policies eine auf den fundamentaldaten beruhende regelbindung der geldpolitik ohne selbstverpflichtung die bei vollkommen rationalen erwartungen der privaten akteure optimal ware ist instabil wenn diese akteure de facto den ublichen regeln des adaptiven lernens folgen dieses problem lasst sich dadurch beheben dass die erwartungen privater akteure berucksichtigt und in geeigneter weise in die optimale geldpolitik einbezogen werden diese eindeutige schlusfolgerung gilt auch dann wenn sich der geldpolitische entscheidungstrager und die privaten akteure in einem simultanen lernprozess befinden unsere ergebnisse zeigen wie wichtig es ist die geldpolitik angemessen zu gestalten und dabei nicht nur die fundamentaldaten sondern auch direkt die beobachteten erwartungen privater haushalte und unternehmen zu berucksichtigen

marketing the third world the contradictions of portfolio investment in the global economy abstract while international portfolio investment pi in emerging markets has flourished during the 1990s the macroeconomic and political dilemmas introduced into these site economies by this development have not been adequately explored this paper presents a keynesian analysis of the effects of these inflows the paper argues that a dependence on pi can constrain the autonomy of macroeconomic policy and introduce increased risk in site economies the paper then applies this framework to recent mexican experience the paper concludes with a call for aggressive management of portfolio investment and outlines some measures toward this end

financialised internationalisation and structural hierarchies a mixed method study of exchange rate determination in emerging economies this paper conducts an extensive mixed method study of exchange rate determination in the brazilian foreign exchange market it combines semi structured interviews with foreign exchange market participants in brazil and london and advanced time series econometrics in line with post keynesian theory and critical realist ontology the interviews uncover the context specific expectations and underlying processes and structures that condition exchange rate dynamics in brazil and emerging economies more generally the results point to important structural changes in brazil s financial integration in the form of currency internationalisation and financialisation moreover they show that this internationalisation has been mediated through a structured and hierarchic international monetary system which fundamentally distinguishes exchange rate drivers in emerging economies from those in developed ones

the current economic crisis its nature and the course of academic economics the current crisis has triggered significant debate concerning economic theory and policy largely absent from this debate is an informed discussion of the methods used by economists in analysing the economy and formulating their proposals but method matters here i argue that current academic research practices need to be transformed before real insight can be achieved specifically i indicate why and how a more grounded framework than that presupposed by current research practices facilitates a potentially more fruitful approach to understanding the crisis

capital flows to emerging economies minsky in the tropics capital inflows to emerging economies have a significant exogenous component they are very large when scaled to the size of the domestic financial sectors of recipients and they have large real macroeconomic effects they also sow the seeds for the ensuing sudden stops or capital flow reversals observed in financial crises in emerging markets this paper tests the implications of applying the kindleberger minsky model of financial crises to capital account reversals in emerging economies or sudden stops as they have been called in the recent literature it uses a panel probit framework with heterogeneous unobserved country effects the most important variables that account for sudden stops are preceding capital surges the share of flows other than foreign direct investment the size of the current account deficit contagion from sudden stops in other emerging markets and the ratio of external debt to exports the main policy conclusion is that emerging economies need specific policies to deal with capital surges in addition macroeconomic policies geared toward preserving sustainable macroeconomic balance may be necessary to avoid sudden stops but they are clearly insufficient copyright the author 2010 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

third world debt and its effects on the british economy a southern view of economic mismanagement in the north when citicorp one of the largest banks in the world announced its decision to make a us 3 billion provision against third world loans in may 1987 almost every commentator agreed that it represented a turning point in the debt crisis it marked the end of the major banks policy of turning a blind eye to the debt crisis after years of unrealistic projections false hopes and promises in the north and with a third world debt already well above us 1 000 billion the banks suddenly began to speak of debt realities see for instance morgan guaranty s world financial markets june july 1987 this realism was a pre condition for overcoming one of the main stumbling blocks to any solution of the crisis namely the reluctance of the main creditor banks to acknowledge the impossibility of recovering the full face value of their ldcs loans

optimal taxation when consumers have endogenous benchmark levels of consumption i examine optimal taxes in an overlapping generations economy in which each consumer s utility depends on consumption relative to a weighted average of consumption by others the benchmark level of consumption as well as on the level of the consumer s own consumption the socially optimal balanced growth path is characterized by the modi ed golden rule and by a condition on the intergenerational allocation of consumption in each period a competitive economy can be induced to attain the social optimum by a lump sum pay as you go social security system and a tax on capital income

introduction the global financial crisis there cannot now be a shadow of a doubt that the flaw in his ideology admitted by alan greenspan in response to a question by henry a waxman chairman of the us house of representatives committee on oversight and government reform whether he felt that your ideology pushed you to make decisions that you wish you had not made is both significant and permanent the current financial and economic crisis that has forced the likes of greenspan to question the coherence of dominant conceptual frameworks is unprecedented in global reach and systemic gravity some basic figures speak for themselves according to mckinsey s mapping global financial markets october 2008 global financial assets rose from us 12 trillion in 1980 to us 196 trillion in 2007 the international monetary fund s global financial stability report imf 2009a estimate for the latter figure is considerably higher at us 241 trillion global cross border capital flows more than doubled between 2002 and 2007 with foreign investors holding one in four debt securities and one in five equities while in 2000 only 11 countries had financial assets of more than 350 of gross domestic product gdp 25 countries had deepened their financial markets to the same extent by 2007 as early as 1990 money managers had increased their control of us corporate equities from 8 in 1950 to 60 porter 1992 p 6 whalen 2002 p 402 similarly pension funds had extended their share of total business equities from less than 1 to just short of 39 and their fraction of corporate debt from 13 to 50 ghilarducci 1992 p 117 whalen 2002 p 402 in the period from 1986 to 2006 the us financial sector as a whole increased its share of corporate profits from 10 to 30 while its outstanding debts grew from 20 of gdp in 1980 to 116 in 2007 fed 2009 according to gillian tett from the financial times outstanding credit defaults swaps cds today amount to no less than us 60 trillion with the risk embodied after discounting mutually off setting contracts still as high as us 14 trillion tett 2009 p 264 as we know the curtains have now come down on this dance of the trillions palma 2009 the immediate hang over in the form of a pile of toxic debt is surreal not only in its

the double bubble at the turn of the century technological roots and structural implications this paper argues that the two boom and bust episodes of the turn of the century the internet mania and crash of the 1990s and the easy liquidity boom and bust of the 2000s are two distinct components of a single structural phenomenon they are essentially the equivalent of 1929 developed in two stages one centred on technological innovation the other on financial innovation hence the frequent references to that crash to the 1930s and to bretton woods are not simple journalistic metaphors for interpreting the credit crunch and its solution but rather the intuitive recognition of a fundamental similarity between those events and the current ones the paper holds that such major boom and bust episodes are endogenous to the way in which the market economy evolves and assimilates successive technological revolutions it will discuss why it occurred in two bubbles on this occasion it examines the differences and continuities between the two episodes and presents an interpretation of their nature and consequences

debt and development in historical perspective the external constraints of late industrialisation revisited through south korea and brazil current debates about the role of external finance in development mostly overlook the insights from early development economics that late industrialisation generates a structural tendency to run trade deficits thereby exacerbating rather than relieving external foreign exchange constraints the developmental role of external finance is therefore based on its strategic marginal contribution to relieve such constraints external debt in particular also allows countries to pursue industrial strategies without reliance on foreign direct investment these insights are revisited in this paper as a critical input to both mainstream and heterodox contemporary scholarship on debt and development while the mainstream generally avoids discussion of state led industrial policy the heterodox has converged on a view that developing countries should avoid external finance the contrasting external account histories of south korea and brazil are examined to demonstrate the validity of the classic insights and the contemporary fallacies while the south korean case speaks much to its geopolitical context this does not necessarily refute the principle that post war late development engenders an intensive demand for external finance which must be met if industrialisation strategies are not to be stymied as in the case of brazil no matter how effectively domestic strategies are conceived and implemented

latin america and the global financial crisis the current world economic crisis has hit latin america very hard although financial conditions have deteriorated particularly since september 2008 the financial shock has been less severe than during the two previous crises thanks to improvements in external balance sheets there has been room for counter cyclical credit and monetary policies the decision to absorb large capital inflows during the boom as foreign exchange reserves is one of the major sources of the increased room to manoeuvre however these strengths have been insufficient in the face of a strong trade shock the region s economies should therefore seriously think again in the domestic market with regional integration and active production sector policies as engines of growth copyright the author 2009 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

robust control of forward looking models abstract this paper shows how to formulate and compute robust ramsey aka stackelberg plans for linear models with forward looking private agents the leader and the followers share a common approximating model and both have preferences for robust decision rules because both doubt the model since their preferences differ the leader s and followers decision rules are fragile to different misspecifications of the approximating model we define a stackelberg equilibrium with robust decision makers in which the leader and follower have different worst case models despite sharing a common approximating model to compute a stackelberg equilibrium we formulate a bellman equation that is associated with an artificial single agent robust control problem the artificial bellman equation contains a description of implementability constraints that include euler equations that describe the worst case analysis of the followers as an example the paper analyzes a model of a monopoly facing a competitive fringe

from miracle to cronyism explaining the great asian slump explanations are about the only thing not in short supply in the asian crisis for all their diversity they can be collapsed into two meta interpretations reflecting deeper differences in beliefs about rationality and markets those whose world view emphasizes rationality self adjusting markets and market failure as exceptional except when governments introduce distortions tend to see the crisis as the result of rational calculations in a situation of market distorting government interventions and institutional weaknesses in asian economies those whose world view stresses non rationality or a different kind of rationality than that assumed by neoclassical theory routine failure of well working markets and the need for government interventions to modify market outcomes tend to see it as the result of non rational calculations in under regulated financial markets both national and international

why the subprime crisis is different a minskyian approach minsky s financial instability model suggests that financial crises can be resolved efficiently with lender of last resort and big government interventions the crisis that began in 2007 hereafter the 2007 crisis has been different it has been more profound and resistant to policy interventions this paper examines why our approach is to expand minsky s balance sheet approach in several ways first we incorporate two factors minsky missed because he built his model in the 1970s the impact of racial exclusion and u s cross border imbalances on u s financial dynamics in addition we draw out the analytical implications of the systematic differences between banks and non banks balance sheets minsky didn t do this but because of the transformation of banking after 1980 these differences have become deeply significant one key effect of so doing is to see that asset liability balances as well as cash flows are crucial in financial dynamics this paper concludes that the 2007 crisis has been so profound and unresponsive to policy intervention for several reasons banks no longer bear as well as originate credit risk banks made exploitative loans to minority borrowers and then generalized these loans as housing prices rose and subprime homeowners and structured investment vehicles became more leveraged than banks copyright the author 2009 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

expectations the business cycle and the mexican peso crisis the 1994 95 peso crisis did not display characteristics which allow it to be easily captured by traditional crisis models models based on minsky s financial fragility hypothesis offer more persuasive accounts but have been supported by relatively little direct empirical evidence this paper provides such evidence with particular attention being paid to the role of domestic financial liberalisation in the process minsky s hypotheses about the evolution of expectations over the business cycle are tracked using business survey data in addition crisis indicators are constructed reflecting the changing vulnerability of the economy to shocks the findings support a minskyian interpretation of the crisis copyright 2006 oxford university press

on relative wealth effects and the optimality of growth abstract we present a model of endogenous growth in which a desire for social status lead individuals to care about their relative wealth the growth rate of the economy is socially optimal if the status motive is sufficiently important but the presence of status seeking may also lead to excessive growth

optimal monetary policy and model selection in a real time learning environment abstract we investigate how real time parameter learning optimal policies and the volatility of exogenous shocks affect the policymakers ability to distinguish across competing models of the economy the detection speed of model misspecification depends only on the relative volatility of supply and demand shocks

population ageing and pension reform in a small open economy with non traded goods in this paper we study the implications of population ageing in an economy with a sizeable non traded goods sector to this effect a highly stylized micro founded macro model is constructed in which the age structure of the population plays a non trivial role the model distinguishes separate birth and death probabilities thus allowing for net population change allows for age dependent labour productivity thus mimicing life cycle saving and includes a rudimentary pension system thus allowing for intergenerational redistribution the model is used to analytically study demographic and pension shocks

international overborrowing a decomposition of credit and currency risks summary the severity of the financial crises enveloping the tiger economies of southeast asia in 1997 came as a surprise to many observers this paper uses a simple fisherian model of the overborrowing syndrome to compare the asian crises of 1997 with earlier overborrowing episodes in mexico and chile while important similarities exist the crises in southeast asia have been exacerbated by the unhedged foreign exchange positions of asian banks these open currency positions not only imposed significant additional losses on the banks following devaluation they also magnified the scale of overborrowing during the cycle s initial boom phase failure to limit the exposure of banks to foreign exchange risk therefore increased the magnitude of the boom bust overborrowing cycle both ex ante and ex post the paper highlights the importance of effective regulation and supervision of capital markets with a focus on limiting the speculative currency positions of banks especially those that form the core of the domestic payments system and therefore enjoy a possibly implicit public guarantee improving the institutional infrastructure of financial supervision is the only effective way of mitigating the macroeconomic costs of overborrowing

the revenge of the market on the rentiers why neo liberal reports of the end of history turned out to be premature starting from the perspective of heterodox keynesian minskyian kindlebergian financial economics this paper begins by highlighting a number of mechanisms that contributed to the current financial crisis these include excess liquidity income polarisation conflicts between financial and productive capital lack of appropriate regulation asymmetric information principal agent dilemmas and bounded rationalities however the paper then proceeds to argue that perhaps more than ever the macroeconomics that led to this crisis only makes analytical sense if examined within the framework of the political settlements and distributional outcomes in which it had operated taking the perspective of critical social theories the paper concludes that ultimately the current financial crisis is the outcome of something much more systemic namely an attempt to use neo liberalism or in us terms neo conservatism as a new technology of power to help transform capitalism into a rentiers delight in particular into a system without compulsions on big business i e one that imposes only minimal pressures on big agents to engage in competitive struggles in the real economy while doing the opposite to workers and small firms a key component in the effectiveness of this new technology of power was its ability to transform the state into a major facilitator of the ever increasing rent seeking practices of oligopolistic capital the architects of this experiment include some capitalist groups in particular rentiers from the financial sector as well as capitalists from the mature and most polluting industries of the preceding techno economic paradigm some political groups as well as intellectual networks with their allies including many economists and the new left although rentiers did succeed in their attempt to get rid of practically all fetters on their greed in the end the crisis materialised when markets took their inevitable revenge on the rentiers by calling their blatant bluff

the fat years the structure and profitability of the us banking sector in the pre crisis period bank profitability in the usa was extremely high in the pre crisis period yet this did not prevent the current crisis it has become clear that these profits were on shaky grounds and also that bank profits were not used to buttress banks capital bases this paper analyses the effects of structure on profitability from 1994 to 2005 banklevel panel data are used to test the effects of concentration market power bank size and operational efficiency on profitability efficiency is not found to be a strong determinant of profitability suggesting that banks high profits during this period were not earned through efficient performance robust evidence is found that concentration increases bank profitability this holds even when the largest banks are excluded from the sample suggesting that the relationship between concentration and profitability acts in a generalised structural way and that the higher profits arising from concentration are at the expense of the rest of the economy the analysis points to various policy implications relevant to the current crisis in particular in terms of the legitimacy of expectations of the restoration of pre crisis profit rates and the need for much stronger regulation of the banking sector especially in terms of the structure of the sector pricing behaviour and use of profits

financial crisis in southeast asia dispelling illusion the minskyan way this paper extends minsky s financial instability hypothesis to the case of the open liberalised economy making it possible to put forward a specifically minskyan account of the road to the financial crisis in southeast asia 1997 1998 the analysis suggests that the threats to growth and employment emanating from the financial sector which minsky identified in the closed economy setting are much intensified in open liberalised developing economies financial liberalisation is an important key factor in this process rival explanations of the crisis are examined and rejected in favour of the extended minskyan explanation the policy implications are derived and discussed copyright 2002 oxford university press

can portfolio rebalancing explain the dynamics of equity returns equity flows and exchange rates we explore whether the pattern of international equity returns equity portfolio flows and exchange rate returns are consistent with the hypothesis that unhedged global investors rebalance their portfolio in order to limit their exchange rate exposure when there are 1 relative equity return and 2 exchange rate shocks we also explore whether 3 equity flow shocks influence the exchange rates and relative equity prices in the estimation of the var system we do not impose any causal ordering upon the primitive shocks but instead identify the system based on theoretical priors about the contemporaneous conditional correlations between the three variables international data for the five largest equity markets are consistent with a theory in which equity returns and portfolio rebalancing are an important source of exchange rate dynamics

why don t the bailouts work design of a new financial system versus a return to normalcy the innovative support measures introduced by the us central bank and treasury in response to the current crisis to bolster bank balance sheets have had little success in restoring liquidity to financial markets these policies mirror similar policies employed in the 1930s in the usa and the 1990s in japan in both cases with little impact this paper identifies three policies impacting incomes rather than prices the assessment of system failure and proposals for system design that were employed in dealing with prior financial crises that they have not been introduced in response to the present crisis may explain why current measures have not yet had their intended impact of restoring bank lending to the productive economy

jealousy and equilibrium overconsumption the idea that the happiness of an individual depends upon the consumption of others is widely viewed as an important feature of our shared social existence recent research in finance has used this idea through consumption externalities to explore asset pricing anomalies consumption externalities potentially break the link between pareto optimality and competitive equilibria and open the door for beneficial government intervention e g lars ljungqvist and harald uhlig 2000 in this paper we delineate two effects that a consumption externality may have an increase in aggregate consumption may a raise the marginal utility of individual consumption relative to leisure and or b lower an individual s utility level we refer to a as keeping up with the joneses henceforth kuj following jordi gali 1994 and we refer to b as jealousy jealousy is a distinct concept from kuj under kuj an individual derives greater utility from additional own consumption relative to leisure when others consume more at the same time higher per capita consumption holding fixed individual consumption can trigger either jealousy so that individual utility falls or admiration so that individual utility rises in section i of this paper we show that jealousy implies that the laissez faire equilibrium consumption level is greater than the optimal level whether preferences exhibit kuj is not necessary for this main result intuitively in the presence of jealousy consumption is similar to pollution overpollution exists because individuals do not take into account the cost of polluting on others not because an increase in economywide pollution makes the return to individual polluting higher similarly overconsumption exists because individuals do not take into account the negative effect of own consumption on jealous others things go in the opposite direction when individuals are admiring in section ii we consider a functional form that encompasses several existing models we show that jealousy determines the optimal tax to correct overconsumption and that kuj is mainly important for asset pricing

we are what we eat obesity income and social comparisons abstract the empirical evidence of a non monotone relation between income and obesity is not well explained we build a theoretical model combining income inequality and social comparisons to explain the link between income and obesity and study tax policy implications for fighting obesity we assume that differences in food consumption patterns between poor and wealthy households partly reflect positionality which is the concern for social status our key assumption is that positionality for low calorie food consumption is positively related to a country s wealth in this framework body weight outcomes reflect competing income and positionality effects yielding the following results we explain the link between average obesity rates and standards of living and suggest the existence of a kuznets curve for obesity in accordance with empirical evidence for cross sections of the population we explain the observed correlation between income and obesity which is positive in poor countries and negative in rich countries we find that increasing the relative cost of high calorie food is less effective at decreasing the relative weight of poor individuals in rich countries than in poor countries

the effect of unionism on fringe benefits this study analyzes the impact of unionism on fringes paid to production workers using data on individual establishments it compares fringe expenditures in establishments having the same level of compensation per hour and finds that unionism raises the share of compensation allotted to fringes particularly to pensions vacation pay and life accident and health insurance in addition since unionism also raises the straight time wage rate itself a prime determinant of expenditures on fringes unionism has a very sizeable impact on total fringe expenditures as well as on the fringe share of compensation the union fringe effect exceeds in percentage terms the union wage effect and is sufficiently large to suggest that standard union wage studies understate the union effect on total compensation the study also compares the fringe expenditures of production and non production workers within the same establishment controlling for within establishment pay policies the findings suggest that the pres

developing countries changing nature of financial integration and new forms of external vulnerability the brazilian experience this article argues using the example of brazil that the changing nature of developing and emerging countries decs financial integration has created new forms of external vulnerability causing large and volatile capital and exchange rate movements despite sound fundamentals and a substantial reduction in its traditional external vulnerabilities the brazilian real has been one of the most volatile currencies over recent years the article argues that this has been the result of the surging exposure of foreign investors in an increasingly complex set of very short term domestic currency assets following a minskyan analysis we demonstrate that the changing nature of brazil s external vulnerability confirms both the inherent and endogenous instability of international capital flows and decs subordinate role in the international financial system we conclude with policy recommendations to reduce decs external vulnerability sustainably

retirement pensions and ageing we study the effects of demographic shocks and changes in the pension system on the macroeconomic performance of an advanced small open economy facing a given world interest rate we construct an overlapping generations model which includes a realistic description of the mortality process individual agents choose their optimal retirement age taking into account the time and age profiles of wages taxes and the public pension system the early retirement provision in most pension systems acts as a trap inducing most workers to retire well before the normal retirement age simulations show that pension reform must be drastic for it to have any effects on the retirement behaviour of workers

capital market imperfections and financialization of real sectors in emerging markets private investment and cash flow relationship revisited summary the paper analyzes the impacts of cash flow from multiple investments in real and financial sectors on the new fixed investment spending of real sector firms the empirical results based on the euler equation approach and semi annual firm level data from two major emerging markets mexico and turkey suggest that profits and rates of returns from fixed and financial assets have differential effects on fixed investment spending of real sector firms accordingly increasing availability and accessibility of alternative investment opportunities in financial markets can become instrumental in channeling real sector savings to short term financial investments instead of long term fixed capital formation and thus lead to deindustrialization

the costs of coupling the global crisis and the indian economy the view that the indian economy would be less adversely affected by the global economic crisis because of limited integration and other inherent strengths has proved to be wrong the economic boom in india that preceded the current downturn was dependent upon greater global integration in three ways greater reliance on exports particularly of services increased dependence on capital inflows especially of the short term variety and the role these played in underpinning a domestic credit fuelled consumption and investment boom these in turn made the growth process more vulnerable to internally and externally generated crises as is now becoming clear

the relative income hypothesis abstract despite its theoretical dominance the empirical case in favor of the permanent income hypothesis is weak contrary to one of its basic implications a growing body of evidence suggests that rich households save a higher proportion of their permanent income than poor households we propose an overlapping generations economy where households care about relative consumption as a result an individual s consumption is driven by the comparison of his lifetime income and the lifetime income of his reference group a permanent income version of duesenberry s 1949 relative income hypothesis across households the savings rate increases with income while aggregate savings are independent of the income distribution

dynamic asset allocation with relative wealth concerns in incomplete markets abstract in dynamic portfolio choice problems stochastic state variables such as stochastic volatility lead to adjustments of the optimal stock demand referred to as hedge terms or merton breeden terms by deriving an explicit solution in a two agent framework with a stochastic opportunity set we show that relative wealth concerns give rise to new hedge terms beyond the ordinary ones this is because the agents hedge against both exogenous changes in the state variable and endogenous decisions of the other agent depending on the parametrization of the model these new terms can significantly change the investors hedging demands we also show that both heterogeneity in risk aversion or relative wealth concerns can have similar effects on the heterogeneity in portfolio decisions formally we study a non cooperative non zero sum stochastic differential game for which we prove a verification theorem in a setting with an unspanned state variable

environmental abatement and intergenerational distribution this paper employs an overlapping generations model to explore the impact of public abatement on private investment and the intergenerational distribution of welfare whereas public abatement benefits old generations in terms of non environmental welfare future generations gain most in terms of environmental welfare the overall benefits tend to be smallest for generations born at the time of the unanticipated policy shock public debt policy however can be employed to ensure that welfare gains are distributed more equally across the various generations such a policy implies that natural capital crowds out man made capital

keeping one step ahead of the joneses status the distribution of wealth and long run growth assuming that the utility of each agent depends on its relative wealth position in the society this chapter constructs an endogenous growth model it is shown that even if the subjective discount rates differ across agents there exists a unique balanced growth equilibrium in which each agent owns a positive share of the world wealth it is also shown that if the agents are identical then an increase in savings incentives always raises the long run growth rate but if they are heterogeneous then an increase in savings incentives may lower the long run growth rate

three and a half cycles of mania panic and asymmetric crash east asia and latin america compared this paper argues that despite some significant differences the 1982 debt crisis the 1994 mexican crisis and the 1997 east asian crisis share the common characteristic that over lending and over borrowing are basically endogenous market failures of over liquid and under regulated financial markets along the lines described by kindleberger s manias panics and crashes although these crashes have tended to be asymmetric as the largest international lenders have emerged relatively intact the paper concludes with a discussion of brazil s increasing vulnerability to a sudden collapse of confidence and withdrawal of finance which indicates the probability of another impending crisis

conspicuous consumption snobbism and conformism abstract we develop a model in which consumers purchase a conspicuous good in order to signal high income and thereby achieve greater social status in equilibrium the signalling value of conspicuous consumption depends in an identifiable way on the number of consumers and consumer behaviour is characterized by either snobbism or conformism the market demand curve for the conspicuous good may exhibit a positive slope if consumers are conformist we derive some unconventional policy implications concerning the taxation of luxuries and the voluntary provision of public goods

trade finance and the great trade collapse pieces of evidence that support the trade finance channel first we show that export prices rose relative to domestic manufacturing prices across a large number of countries second we find that import and export prices of goods shipped by sea which are likely to be affected most by trade finance contractions rose disproportion ately more than those shipped by air or land

from global imbalances to global reorganisations the world feels itself to be in transition but to what is unclear will the liberal market model retain its normative primacy once some semblance of normality is restored or will other varieties of capitalism with a bigger role of the state acquire more legitimacy the answer depends partly on one s explanation for the current crisis this essay argues first that global imbalances had too important a role to ignore in contrast to a mainstream view that focuses on mistakes in monetary policy and financial regulation it argues second that in light of global dynamics the crisis is likely to become worse by early 2010 which on the face of it makes significant reorganisations of capitalism more likely the third section lays out what should be done to reconfigure capitalism at national and international levels the final section discusses the political economy of policy reforms in terms of the difficult translation from what should be done to what can be done the broad conclusion is that in five years from now the liberal market model will have been restored to normative primacy and we must have more globalization will again be the elite rallying cry but the crisis will have left behind sufficient doubts about factual propositions and value priorities that political parties and economists advocating alternatives will have more scope than they have had for the past three decades

consumption externalities production externalities and efficient capital accumulation under time non separable preferences the effects of consumption and production externalities on economic performance under time non separable preferences are examined both theoretically and numerically we show that a consumption externality alone has long run distortionary effects if and only if labor is supplied elastically with fixed labor supply it has only transitional distortionary effects production externalities always generate long run distortions irrespective of labor supply the optimal tax structure to correct for the distortions is characterized we compare the implications of this model with those obtained when the consumption externality is contemporaneous while some of the long run effects are robust there are also important qualitative and quantitative differences particularly along transitional paths

learning by doing and the value of optimal experimentation abstract recent research on learning by doing has provided the limit properties of beliefs and actions for a class of learning problems in which experimentation is an important aspect of optimal decision making however under these conditions the optimal policy cannot be derived analytically because bayesian learning about unknown parameters introduces a nonlinearity in the dynamic optimization problem this paper utilizes numerical methods to characterize the optimal policy function for a learning by doing problem that is general enough for practical economic applications the optimal policy is found to incorporate a substantial degree of experimentation under a wide range of initial beliefs about the unknown parameters dynamic simulations indicate that optimal experimentation dramatically improves the speed of learning and the stream of future payoffs furthermore these simulations reveal that a policy which separates control and estimation and does not incorporate experimentation frequently induces a long lasting bias in the control and target variables while these sequences tend to converge steadily under the optimal policy they frequently exhibit non stationary behavior when estimation and control are treated separately

effect of the global financial meltdown on india s aggregate export volumes this paper sets up a demand supply model to analyse india s export performance in terms of volumes rather than values between 2000q1 2014q4 the main objective is to determine the impact of the f

out of the corridor keynes and the crisis we should learn from keynes to focus on the macroproblems of our day today s problem is the financial crisis and the resulting great recession neither the standard keynesian policies of decades past nor the monetary policy doctrine of recent years provides useful solutions dynamic stochastic general equilibrium theory is part of the crisis wreckage but turning to old or to new keynesian theory will be of little use a balance sheet recession requires that policy address the problems in the private sector s capital as well as its income accounts we need serious theoretical work on problems of system stability using for example agent based methods monetary theory needs to develop analysis of processes in which intertemporal budget constraints are violated network theory will be useful in that quest

the rise and fall of money manager capitalism a minskian approach we are in the midst of a global financial crisis accompanied by a deep and probably long lasting economic downturn indeed some analysts are already calling this the first depression of the post world war ii era in this article i argue that this is a systemic crisis a crisis of what hyman minsky called money manager capitalism i link this to the analyses of hilferding and veblen of an earlier period finance capitalism and argue that this is in effect the second failure of this type of capitalism the essential characteristics of early finance capitalism are relatively small government use of external finance for investment and growing concentration of economic power in the hands of trusts or what we might today call megacorporations with varied interests and diverse affiliations across industry finance and insurance unlike the first phase the second phase of finance capitalism took place in the context of a big government neoconservative model minsky s analysis helps us to understand how the new deal and big government created a paternalistic capitalism after world war ii which favoured high consumption high employment greater equality and financial stability however that stability was destabilising because it permitted the rise of managed money over time innovation and deregulation increased fragility which generated increasingly frequent and severe financial crises while previous crises were resolved quickly enough to prevent it another debt deflation from happening again this crisis appears to be sufficiently severe that the very survival of money manager capitalism is thrown into question the article examines the contributing factors to the current crisis including the real estate boom and bust the rise of risky financial instruments such as securitised debts and credit default swaps the commodities market bubble and the fiscal squeeze the article concludes with some suggestions concerning the possible outcome of the failure of this form of finance capitalism copyright the author 2009 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press