how accurate are forecasts of costs of energy a methodological contribution forecasts of the cost of energy are typically presented as point estimates however forecasts are seldom accurate which makes it important to understand the uncertainty around these point estimates the scale of the differences between forecasts and outturns i e contemporary estimates of costs may have important implications for government decisions on the appropriate form and level of support modelling energy scenarios or industry investment appraisal this paper proposes a methodology to assess the accuracy of cost forecasts we apply this to levelised costs of energy for different generation technologies due to the availability of comparable forecasts and contemporary estimates however the same methodology could be applied to the components of levelised costs such as capital costs the estimated forecast errors capture the accuracy of previous forecasts and can provide objective bounds to the range around current forecasts for such costs the results from applying this method are illustrated using publicly available data for on and off shore wind nuclear and ccgt technologies revealing the possible scale of forecast errors for these technologies

investment risks in power generation a comparison of fossil fuel and renewable energy dominated markets abstract due to their high capital intensity weather dependent renewable energies res such as solar and wind face considerable investment risks in power markets in addition their uncertain production volumes also affect the investment risks of other plant types through the impact on power prices and residual demand increasing res shares thus potentially increase overall investment risks in power markets which many analysts consider to be a potential problem against this background this paper compares investment risks of different technologies in markets with increasing shares of variable res it further analyses how generation mixes are affected by these investment risks if the risks are evaluated on a stand alone basis or in a plant portfolio context of a private firm for this purpose a stylized investment and dispatch model is used to conduct monte carlo simulations from which risk measures are derived the results show that capital intensive res face the highest stand alone risks since their profits are most affected by the power price risk however the results further indicate that the stand alone risks of variable res decrease with their share in the market because of a negative correlation of output and price risk in addition res have a risk benefit in firm plant portfolios in terms of constituting a hedge against losses of fossil fuel plants this positive portfolio effect however rapidly decreases and becomes negative with increasing res shares in the market

security of electricity supply at the generation level problem analysis abstract since the very beginning of the restructuring process back in 1982 in chile the ability of an electricity market to provide the system with the required level of security of supply has been put into question the mistrust on the ability of the market left to its own devices to provide sufficient generation availability when needed is more and more leading to the implementation of additional regulatory mechanisms this matter is undoubtedly gaining importance and it has taken a key role in the energy regulators agendas in this paper we revisit this discussion under the light of thirty years of electricity market experience we analyze the different reasons why although ideally the market is supposed to provide itself an adequate security of supply at the generation level this result is still far from being achieved in practice

the european renewable energy target for 2030 an impact assessment of the electricity sector abstract the european union set binding targets for the reduction of greenhouse gases ghg and the share of renewable energy re in final energy consumption by 2020 the european council agreed to continue with this strategy through to 2030 by setting a re target of 27 in addition to a ghg reduction target of 40 we provide a detailed sectoral impact assessment by analyzing the implications for the electricity sector in terms of economic costs and the regional distribution of investments and shares of electricity generated from renewable energy sources res e according to the impact analysis by the european commission the 27 re target corresponds to a res e share of 49 our model based sensitivity analysis on underlying technological and institutional assumptions shows that the cost effective res e share varies between 43 and 56 secondly we quantify the economic costs of these variants and those which would be incurred with higher shares the long term additional costs for higher res e shares would be less than 1 of total system costs the third aspect relates to the regional distribution of eu wide efforts for upscaling renewables we point out that delivering high res e shares in a cost effective manner involves considerably different efforts by the member states

economics of pooling small local electricity prosumers lcoe self consumption abstract the arrival of small scale decentralized energy installations coincides with the emergence of so called prosumers entities households that are producer and consumer of energy in one this research focuses on an electricity prosumer model in the context of the uk market levelized cost of electricity lcoe for photovoltaic pv and wind energy will be modeled for six uk sites additionally self consumption levels for two different load profiles and technologies will be estimated per site the simulations are modeled with homer software and multiple inputs will be varied including natural resource equipment cost maintenance cost equipment life expectancy cost of capital project life and load profiles the modeled self consumption levels show significant differences and varied between 31 and 72 depending on load profile itself and re technologies mixes modeled the pooling of prosumers implied by lower load profile volatility proved to be beneficial to self consumption levels in the modeled scenarios up to 17 6 lcoe showed significant ranges depending on the input parameters and their combination 10 55 p kw h for pv and 2 19 p kw h for wind the combination of these factors is decisive for the final lcoe and the negative effects of less benign factors can be compensated by other parameters when compared to current electricity retail prices of around 15 p kw h around 97 of wind sites and around 4 of pv scenarios implied lcoe reached grid parity the self consumption levels and lcoe analysis indicate the viability of electricity prosumer models

revenue prospects of photovoltaic in germany influence opportunities by variation of the plant orientation abstract the fixed feed in tariff under the renewable energy sources act in germany particularly encourages photovoltaic systems with the highest possible annual yield regardless of their temporal generation profile consequently a large part of the installed photovoltaic systems in germany have a southern orientation this paper examines how the optional german market premium scheme incentivizes the installation of photovoltaic systems with a more demand oriented electricity production for this purpose the measure energy yield elasticity of market value was developed and calculated by using historical market data the results show that some of the plant orientations that are deviating from the southern reference could have led to an increase in the market value in the last few years however these would not have been high enough to more than compensate for the financial losses that were formed as a result of the annual energy yield declines the merit order effect could change this situation in the future

quantifying the long term economic benefits of european electricity system integration abstract this paper aims to quantify the long term economic benefits that arise from an increasing integration of the pan european electricity system by means of comparing model based decarbonization scenarios developed with the model limes eu it explicitly accounts for the interplay between transmission infrastructure and renewable generation capacity expansion we confirm earlier findings that on aggregate pan european transmission capacity expansion constitutes a no regret option for integrating increasing shares of variable renewables it leads to positive social returns on investment in all mitigation scenarios under analysis however the reduction in total discounted system costs stemming from transmission capacity expansion is modest in magnitude over the period 2010 2050 it reaches a maximum of 3 5 for a case with massive expansion compared to one in which the status quo remains in technical terms this means that the optimum is rather flat and taking into account regional and local benefits and distributional aspects could alter the evaluation of the economic benefits a crucial finding is that the configuration of pan european transmission infrastructure and the importance of specific country connections i e a southern versus a northern solution hinges on the relative development of specific investment costs for solar and wind technologies over the next decades

a review of uncertainties in technology experience curves abstract the use of log linear experience curves or learning curves relating reductions in the unit cost of technologies to their cumulative production or installed capacity has become a common method of representing endogenous technical change in energy economic models used for policy analysis yet there are significant uncertainties in such formulations whose impact on key model results have been insufficiently examined or considered this paper reviews the major types of uncertainty in log linear experience curves and their effect on projected rates of cost reduction uncertainties are found not only in the learning rate parameter of a log linear model but also in the functional form that determines the shape of an experience curve evidence for alternative forms such as an s shaped curve is reviewed along with case studies that demonstrate the uncertainties associated with cost increases during early commercialization of a technology a phenomena that is widely recognized but rarely quantified or incorporated in learning models additional factors discussed include the effects of learning discontinuities institutional forgetting and the influence of social economic and political factors we then review other models of causality which aim to improve modelers ability to explain and predict the influence of other underlying processes that contribute to technology cost reductions in addition to learning ignoring other types of underlying mechanisms can create a false sense of precision and overestimate the true contribution of learning currently however uncertainties in such multi factor models remain large due to the difficulties of estimating key parameters such as private sector r d investments and extending models of a specific technology to a broader suite of technologies and cost projections pending the development and validation of more robust models of technological change we suggest ways to significantly improve the characterization and reporting of current learning model uncertainties and their impacts on the results of energy economic models to help reduce the potential for drawing inappropriate or erroneous policy conclusions

economic and technical challenges of flexible operations under large scale variable renewable deployment abstract fundamental characteristics of solar and wind power have generated controversy about their economic competitiveness and appropriate techniques for assessing their value this research presents an approach to quantify the economic value of variable renewable capacity and demonstrates its dependence on renewable deployment levels regional resource endowments fleet flexibility and trade assumptions it assesses economic and technical impacts of large scale renewable penetration by linking two models representing electric sector investments and detailed operations model results for california and texas suggest that operational constraints and costs of dispatchable generators e g minimum load levels ramping limits startup costs can impact renewable integration costs but the temporal and spatial variability of solar and wind are larger determinants of their value restrictions on transmission and regional coordination in capacity planning and dispatch decrease the economic value of variable renewable energy highlighting the potential roles of market design and trade energy storage is shown to be a valuable balancing asset at higher solar and wind penetration levels but potential revenues diminish with increased storage deployment

efficient tax reform in a dynamic model of general equilibrium the welfare gain of a shift from capital to a labor income tax is determined in a model of intertemporal optimization with infinite horizon and variable labor supply the welfare impact of small tax changes is computed by an approximation method around the steady state when the difference between the growth rate and the discount rate is small the welfare impact of tax reform depends mainly on the parameters of the production function

the economic impact of energy saving retrofits of residential and public buildings in croatia abstract the purpose of this paper is to estimunate the impact of energy saving investment in residential and public buildings in croatia for the period 2015 2020 the aim is to assess the overall socio economic impact of energy saving renovation measures defined in croatian strategic documents in terms of the direct indirect and induced growth of gross value added employment and government revenues an estimate of the avoided costs of air pollution is also included the overall economic impact assessment is based on an input output methodology from the point of view of individual investors the benefits in terms of reduced future expenses related to energy products are usually below energy efficient renovation investment costs making an investment financially viable only if government support is provided if the benefits for society as a whole are included energy efficient renovation could be assessed as viable even in the short run energy saving retrofits of residential and public buildings positively contribute to economic growth employment and protection of the environment because of economic growth the tax revenues induced by these investments could compensate for government expenditures and the overall impact on the public deficit is expected to be neutral even in the short run

strategies against shocks in power systems an analysis for the case of europe abstract electricity systems are constantly exposed to geopolitical techno economic and natural uncertainties that may endanger security of supply therefore it is crucial that policy makers concerned about it consider a variety of possible futures and not only the one that is perceived as the most likely in particular they should account for the possibility of sudden shocks in their decisions with the goal of making the system more robust however long term power system models which are an important pillar of policy decision making are typically designed to determine the cost minimal power system for a specific expected future such a system is not necessarily the most robust one by combining the classic investment optimization approach with the tools of robust decision making we analyze the viability of different strategies that may potentially increase the robustness of a power system for the case of the european power system we pursue a dedicated analysis with the european power system model limes eu based on a total of more than 40 000 model runs we find that strategies promoting the ability of countries to always produce at least 95 of their electricity demand domestically significantly help to reduce the loss of load in case of shocks such a strategy is not cost optimal for the expected future without shocks but the additional costs about 0 1 of total system costs are low compared to the benefits of significantly increasing the power system s robustness

trade imbalance and domestic market competition policy this study investigates the effect of a country s suppression of competition in its market for nontradables it assumes that the initial equilibrium is stationary and demonstrates that if competition is suppressed in a small country the country s trade surplus increases in the short run in the large country case the same change creates an excess demand for future tradables and affects the relative price between present and future tradables using a two country model the study shows that this price change redistributes real wealth from the country with a trade deficit to the country with a trade surplus

decarbonization scenarios for the eu and mena power system considering spatial distribution and short term dynamics of renewable generation we use the multi scale power system model limes eu to explore coordinated long term expansion pathways for renewable energy re generation long distance transmission and storage capacities for the power sector of the europe and middle east north africa mena regions that lead to a low emission power system we show that ambitious emission reduction targets can be achieved at moderate costs by a nearly complete switch to re sources until 2050 if transmission and storage capacities are expanded adequately limiting transmission capacities to current levels leads to higher storage requirements higher curtailments and to an increase in temporal and spatial electricity price variations results show an escalation of electricity prices if emission reductions exceed a critical value adequate expansion of transmission and storage capacities shift this threshold from 70 to 90 emission reductions in 2050 relative to 2010

impact of renewables on electricity markets do support schemes matter abstract rising renewable shares influence electricity markets in several ways among others average market prices are reduced and price volatility increases therefore the missing money problem in energy only electricity markets is more likely to occur in systems with high renewable shares nevertheless renewables are supported in many countries due to their expected benefits the kind of support instrument can however influence the degree to which renewables influence the market while fixed feed in tariffs lead to higher market impacts more market oriented support schemes such as market premiums quota systems and capacity based payments decrease the extent to which markets are affected this paper analyzes the market impacts of different support schemes for this purpose a new module is added to an existing bottom up simulation model of the electricity market in addition different degrees of flexibility in the electricity system are considered a case study for germany is used to derive policy recommendations regarding the choice of support scheme

on the economics of electrical storage for variable renewable energy sources abstract the use of renewable energy sources is a major strategy to mitigate climate change yet sinn 2017 argues that excessive electrical storage requirements limit the further expansion of variable wind and solar energy we question and alter strong implicit assumptions of sinn s approach and find that storage needs are considerably lower up to two orders of magnitude first we move away from corner solutions by allowing for combinations of storage and renewable curtailment second we specify a parsimonious optimization model that explicitly considers an economic efficiency perspective we conclude that electrical storage is unlikely to limit the transition to renewable energy

on the economics of renewable energy sources abstract with the global expansion of renewable energy re technologies the provision of optimal re policy packages becomes an important task we review pivotal aspects regarding the economics of renewables that are relevant to the design of an optimal re policy many of which are to date unresolved we do so from three interrelated perspectives that a meaningful public policy framework for inquiry must take into account first we explore different social objectives justifying the deployment of re technologies and review model based estimates of the economic potential of re technologies i e their socially optimal deployment level second we address pivotal market failures that arise in the course of implementing the economic potential of re sources in decentralized markets third we discuss multiple policy instruments curing these market failures our framework reveals the requirements for an assessment of the relevant options for real world decision makers in the field of re policies this review makes it clear that there are remaining white areas on the knowledge map concerning consistent and socially optimal re policies

efficient modeling and forecasting of electricity spot prices abstract the increasing importance of renewable energy especially solar and wind power has led to new forces in the formation of electricity prices hence this paper introduces an econometric model for the hourly time series of electricity prices of the european power exchange epex which incorporates specific features like renewable energy the model consists of several sophisticated and established approaches and can be regarded as a periodic var tarch with wind power solar power and load as influences on the time series it is able to map the distinct and well known features of electricity prices in germany an efficient iteratively reweighted lasso approach is used for the estimation moreover it is shown that several existing models are outperformed by the procedure developed in this paper

parametric study of variable renewable energy integration in europe advantages and costs of transmission grid extensions abstract wind and solar energy will play an important role in the decarbonization of the european electricity generation however high shares of these variable renewable energies vres challenge the power system considerably due to their temporal fluctuations and geographical dispersion in this paper we systematically analyze transmission grid extensions as an integration measure for vres in europe we show the effects of grid extensions for fundamental properties of the power system as a function of the penetration and mix of wind and solar energy backup capacity requirements and overproduction are reduced with a powerful overlay transmission grid we determine the costs of the grid extensions in dependence of the vre penetration and mix and find that the grid integration costs remain below 25 of the vre investment costs for all conceivable vre configurations furthermore robust design features of future power systems in terms of grid geometry and flexibility requirements for backup technologies are identified we apply a spatially and temporally highly resolved techno economic model of the european power system for our analysis

the efficiency gains from dynamic tax reform this paper presents a new simulation methodology for determining the pure efficiency gains from tax reform along the general equilibrium rational expectations growth path of life cycle economies the principal findings concern the effects of switching from a proportional income tax with rates similar to those in the u s to either a proportional tax on consumption or a proportional tax on labor income a switch to consumption taxation generates a sustainable welfare gain of almost 2 percent of lifetime resources in contrast a transition to wage taxation generates a loss of greater than percent of lifetime re sources a second general result is that even a mild degree of progressivity in the income tax system imposes a very large efficiency cost this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

recent developments in management science in banking banking has been a fertile area for management science applications as is evident from the review provided in this paper the relevant management science models are discussed in terms of the areas of bank management for which they were intended under dynamic balance sheet management i e internal bank financial planning we consider forecasting techniques simulation models and optimization models other areas of banking included are bond portfolio management bank operations corporate services bank marketing and management of the loan portfolio the authors provide an evaluation of the applicability of management science models in practice discuss the extent to which some have been implemented and consider the philosophy of using management science models in banking

marginal excess burden in a dynamic economy abstract this note describes the computation of the marginal welfare cost of factor taxation in a dynamic representative agent perfect foresight general equilibrium model we find that this excess burden varies substantially across instruments and is sensitive to anticipation effects

wholesale marginal prices in competitive generation markets wholesale marginal electricity prices are being used in several actual competitive generation markets worldwide both to remunerate generators and to charge consumption these prices must account not only for energy but also for guarantee of supply in the long and the short term this paper a provides a sound conceptual and quantitative foundation for wholesale pricing based on generation services where any existing restrictions in operation or planning in real power markets are accounted for b clearly establishes the relationship between short term marginal costs long term marginal costs and optimal wholesale electricity prices and c identifies the reasons for mismatches in cost recovery with marginal generation prices the theoretical results are verified with a detailed realistic power system model

causes of the eu ets price drop recession cdm renewable policies or a bit of everything new evidence the price of eu allowances euas in the eu emissions trading scheme eu ets fell from almost 30 tco2 in mid 2008 to less than 5 tco2 in mid 2013 the sharp and persistent price decline has sparked intense debates both in academia and among policy makers about the decisive allowance price drivers in this paper we examine whether and to what extent the eua price drop can be justified by three commonly identified explanatory factors the economic recession renewable policies and the use of international credits capitalizing on marginal abatement cost theory and a broadly extended data set we find that only variations in economic activity and the growth of wind and solar electricity production are robustly explaining eua price dynamics contrary to simulation based analyses our results point to moderate interaction effects between the overlapping eu ets and renewable policies the bottom line however is that 90 of the variations of eua price changes remains unexplained by the abatement related fundamentals together our findings do not support the widely held view that negative demand shocks are the main cause of the weak carbon price signal in view of the new evidence we evaluate the eu ets reform options which are currently discussed

the private and public economics of renewable electricity generation generating electricity from renewable sources is more expensive than conventional approaches but reduces pollution externalities analyzing the tradeoff is much more challenging than often presumed because the value of electricity is extremely dependent on the time and location at which it is produced which is not very controllable with some renewables such as wind and solar likewise the pollution benefits from renewable generation depend on what type of generation it displaces which also depends on time and location without incorporating these factors cost benefit analyses of alternatives are likely to be misleading other common arguments for subsidizing renewable power green jobs energy security and driving down fossil energy prices are unlikely to substantially alter the analysis the role of intellectual property spillovers is a strong argument for subsidizing energy science research but less persuasive as an enhancement to the value of installing current renewable energy technologies

economic development as self discovery in the presence of uncertainty about what a country can be good at producing there can be great social value to discovering costs of domestic activities because such discoveries can be easily imitated we develop a general equilibrium framework for a small open economy to clarify the analytical and normative issues we highlight two failures of the laissez faire outcome there is too little investment and entrepreneurship ex ante and too much production diversification ex post optimal policy consists of counteracting these distortions to encourage investments in the modern sector ex ante but to rationalize production ex post we provide some informal evidence on the building blocks of our model

the merit order effect a detailed analysis of the price effect of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in germany the german feed in support of electricity generation from renewable energy sources has led to high growth rates of the supported technologies critics state that the costs for consumers are too high an important aspect to be considered in the discussion is the price effect created by renewable electricity generation this paper seeks to analyse the impact of privileged renewable electricity generation on the electricity market in germany the central aspect to be analysed is the impact of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices the results generated by an agent based simulation platform indicate that the financial volume of the price reduction is considerable in the short run this gives rise to a distributional effect which creates savings for the demand side by reducing generator profits in the case of the year 2006 the volume of the merit order effect exceeds the volume of the net support payments for renewable electricity generation which have to be paid by consumers

towards a common renewable future the system gmm approach to assess the convergence in renewable energy consumption of eu countries abstract this paper investigates whether the contribution of renewable energy sources to primary energy consumption is characterized by a convergence process across core european union eu countries over the period from 1990 to 2014 the system generalized method of moments gmm methodology is employed for 5 year span panel data of 14 eu members the findings indicate strong evidence for both the absolute unconditional and conditional convergence of renewables share in primary energy consumption across eu 14 countries moreover the control variables namely co2 emissions per gdp fdi inward stock and electricity prices contribute to the speed of convergence hence the implicit rate of conditional convergence is higher than that of absolute convergence the empirical evidence suggests that the energy mixes of core eu members have a tendency to become similar in the long run as the shares of res in primary energy consumption converge to the average level nonetheless it does not necessarily imply that this average would be 20 target which is to be achieved by 2020 according to eu directive 2009 28 ec

are conventional energy megaprojects competitive suboptimal decisions related to cost overruns in brazil abstract cost minimization is arguably the most important criterion governing decisions about energy sector infrastructure construction usually a winning project is picked among similar alternatives based on lowest levelized cost of energy because ceteris paribus economies of scale drive down the unit cost of energy delivered as such megaprojects here defined as costing more than a benchmark us 1 billion are perceived as more competitive than smaller scale options however megaprojects are prone to construction cost overruns and delays that if included ex ante may change the optimality of decision for a given project we hypothesize that optimistic assumptions on techno economic performance of megaprojects favor their inclusion in the solution of integrated assessment models iams preventing higher shares of non hydro renewables energy efficiency and other low carbon options to test this hypothesis we ran the coppe msb energy system cost optimization model for infrastructure expansion we estimate a factor named z factor for zillions to determine cost differences both within brazil and vis a vis international parity and adjust the model s parameters for capex and construction times of projects qualifying as megaprojects results show decreased coal and increased wind power generation and a reduction in the number of new refineries leading to higher imports of diesel and gasoline

variable renewable energy technologies in the turkish electricity market quantile regression analysis of the merit order effect abstract the share of variable renewable energy sources in power supply has increased significantly in many countries however this increase has also created problems in electricity markets while the average day ahead market price has declined in several markets the merit order effect the remuneration mechanisms in some countries have to be revised due to the surge in financial costs yet further research is needed to understand the implications of the merit order effect for remuneration mechanisms thoroughly accordingly this study aims to contribute to the literature through employing a quantile regression model to analyze the merit order effect and discuss its implications for the remuneration mechanism in turkish electricity market model results show significant negative merit order effect for both wind and run of river hydro technologies however this effect varies with respect to demand price level and technology moreover the contribution of these technologies to the total welfare in the turkish electricity market does not favor fixed price payments in conclusion it is recommended that the remuneration mechanism is revised to include the temporal value of variable renewable energy sources and electricity market design should reflect the locational value of variable renewable energy sources in turkey

the market value of variable renewables the effect of solar wind power variability on their relative price this paper provides a comprehensive discussion of the market value of variable renewable energy vre the inherent variability of wind speeds and solar radiation affects the price that vre generators receive on the market market value during windy and sunny times the additional electricity supply reduces the prices because the drop is larger with more installed capacity the market value of vre falls with higher penetration rate this study aims to develop a better understanding on how the market value with penetration and how policies and prices affect the market value quantitative evidence is derived from a review of published studies regression analysis of market data and the calibrated model of the european electricity market emma we find the value of wind power to fall from 110 of the average power price to 50 80 as wind penetration increases from zero to 30 of total electricity consumption for solar power similarly low value levels are reached already at 15 penetration hence competitive large scale renewable deployment will be more difficult to accomplish than as many anticipate

cost effectiveness of renewable electricity policies we analyze policies to promote renewable sources of electricity a portfolio standard rps raises electricity prices and primarily reduces gas fired generation a knee of the cost curve exists between 15 and 20 goals for 2020 in our central case and higher natural gas prices lower the cost of greater reliance on renewables a renewable energy production tax credit lowers electricity price at the expense of taxpayers which limits its effectiveness in reducing carbon emissions and it is less cost effective at increasing renewables than a portfolio standard neither policy is as cost effective as a cap and trade policy for achieving carbon emission reductions

specifications of social welfare in economic studies of climate policy overview of criteria and related policy insights an important assumption in economic studies of climate policy is the social welfare function this paper shows that applying distinct decision or social welfare criteria can result in different optimal policies of climate control notably if climate change impacts are uncertain first decision criteria in current climate economic studies are reviewed next the most important alternatives are discussed including their mathematical formalization and incorporation in economy climate models most of these alternative criteria suggest more stringent climate policies to be optimal than the standard discounted utilitarianism approach however several important welfare criteria have not or hardly seen any application in the economic analysis of climate policy we conclude that there is clear need for systematic research on this theme for which the current review provides a solid basis

an application of the ahp to bank strategic planning the mergers and acquisitions process abstract strategic planning is one of the most complex and ill structured tasks faced by banks it usually requires adopting a course of action from a large set of alternatives with uncertain long term outcomes which depend to a large extent on unknown and turbulent environments in deriving these strategies bankers usually try to achieve multiple and sometimes conflicting objectives such as profitability growth liquidity and market share subject to constraints on credit and exchange risks and regulatory requirements moreover specific strategies are normally determined by a board of directors whose members have different backgrounds judgments and personal goals this paper describes the application of the ahp methodology to the evaluation of bank mergers and acquisitions m a strategy the model developed for this important problem was tested with the assistance of the board of directors of a billion dollar bank holding company although it is difficult to generalize from one experiment dealing with a single issue there was nothing unique in the situation where the test was performed hence it is safe to assume that the ahp methodology can be applied to other complex and ill defined strategic issues faced by other banking institutions compared with existing techniques on the one hand and with qualitative managerial judgement on the other hand the ahp provides a useful simple and powerful tool for dealing with strategic planning in banking

renewable electricity generation in germany a meta analysis of mitigation scenarios german energy policy targets envision a share of electricity from renewable energy sources res e of at least 80 in 2050 how can the transformation of the german electricity sector be achieved and at what costs this paper addresses these questions by means of a meta analysis of 10 recent model based mitigation scenarios for germany it turns out that the scenarios exploit the three basic strategic options of increasing the share of res e domestic res e generation electricity demand reductions and res e imports to substantially different extents domestic res e generation increases in all scenarios particularly from onshore and offshore wind scenarios that rely heavily on reducing electricity demand require a relatively low expansion of domestic res e generation despite detailed technical analyses insights on the costs of the transformation remain limited a discussion of underlying scenario assumptions reveals that it is unclear whether i res e and system integration technology development will be as cost competitive as postulated ii implicitly assumed institutional requirements will be realized and iii relevant actors in the transformation process will be incentivized accordingly therefore future research should pursue a thorough assessment of strategic options for transforming the german electricity system that consistently integrates technologies institutions and actors

bank asset and liability management under uncertainty abstract this study presents a multiperiod stochastic linear simple recourse model for asset and liability management in banking the model determines the portfolio of assets and liabilities over the planning horizon given a set of deterministic rates of returns of investments and costs of borrowings and a set of random outstanding deposit levels liquidity and total reserve requirements with a given discrete probability distribution the intention is to develop an optimization tool to assure sustained profitability and good management of risks while balancing sources and uses of funds to meet legal and policy requirements and satisfy withdrawal requests of depositors on time and in full effects of changes in bank policies and banking regulations environmental factors potential risks additional decision alternatives and constraints can be handled and evaluated by the model therefore it can be used both for planning and analysis the model is verified using a turkish sample bank s data over the period 1987 1990 and several sensitivity anallyes are reported as the model takes into account the stochastic behaviour of crucial uncontrollable variables the results of the model can be deemed more realistic compared with the deterministic model

the welfare cost of capital income taxation in a growing economy the welfare cost of capital income taxation is analyzed in a general equilibrium framework where the private sector is represented by a competitive household endowed with perfect foresight and an infinite life the value of the welfare cost depends essentially on the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor in the production function numerical estimates are presented for different values of the parameters of the model the welfare gain obtained by the abolition of the capital income tax is smaller when the private sector is not endowed with perfect foresight it is reduced by about 40 percent when expectations are myopic the allocation efficiency cost of the corporate tax dwarfs the intertemporal welfare cost

debt and distortionary taxation in a simple perfect foresight model abstract we examine the real effects of a temporary substitution of debt for distortionary income taxation we find that such a policy may reduce consumption increase investment and reduce interest rates these results arise even though we examine the same model used by barro where temporary substitution of debt for lump sum taxes was shown to have no real effects we show that these anti keynesian effects on consumption are as significant as various pro keynesian effects such as finite lives hence the impact of debt is an empirical issue and ricardian neutrality appears to be a reasonable benchmark

renewable electricity production costs a framework to assist policy makers decisions on price support abstract despite recent progress the production costs for renewable electricity remain above those for conventional power expectations of continuous reductions in production costs typically underpin governments policies for financial support they often draw on the technology focused versions of the experience curve model this paper discusses how national contextual factors also have a strong influence on production costs such as geographic infrastructural institutional and resource factors as technologies mature and as they reach significant levels of diffusion nationally sustained increases in production costs might be recorded due to these nationally contextual factors poorly accounted for in policy making decisions for price support the paper suggests an analytical framework for a more comprehensive understanding of production costs based on this it recommends that the evolution of specific cost levels and factors be monitored to locate sources of changes the paper also suggests policy instruments that governments may use to facilitate cost decreases whenever possible the application of the framework is illustrated for the diffusion of wind power in spain during the past three decades

a tale of two market failures technology and environmental policy abstract market failures associated with environmental pollution interact with market failures associated with the innovation and diffusion of new technologies these combined market failures provide a strong rationale for a portfolio of public policies that foster emissions reduction as well as the development and adoption of environmentally beneficial technology both theory and empirical evidence suggest that the rate and direction of technological advance is influenced by market and regulatory incentives and can be cost effectively harnessed through the use of economic incentive based policy in the presence of weak or nonexistent environmental policies investments in the development and diffusion of new environmentally beneficial technologies are very likely to be less than would be socially desirable positive knowledge and adoption spillovers and information problems can further weaken innovation incentives while environmental technology policy is fraught with difficulties a long term view suggests a strategy of experimenting with policy approaches and systematically evaluating their success

comparing the costs of intermittent and dispatchable electricity generating technologies economic evaluations of alternative electric generating technologies typically rely on comparisons between their expected life cycle production costs per unit of electricity supplied the standard life cycle cost metric utilized is the levelized cost per mwh supplied this paper demonstrates that this metric is inappropriate for comparing intermittent generating technologies like wind and solar with dispatchable generating technologies like nuclear gas combined cycle and coal levelized cost comparisons are a misleading metric for comparing intermittent and dispatchable generating technologies because they fail to take into account differences in the production profiles of intermittent and dispatchable generating technologies and the associated large variations in the market value of the electricity they supply levelized cost comparisons overvalue intermittent generating technologies compared to dispatchable base load generating technologies they also overvalue wind generating technologies compared to solar generating technologies integrating differences in production profiles the associated variations in the market value of the electricity supplied and life cycle costs associated with different generating technologies is necessary to provide meaningful comparisons between them this market based framework also has implications for the appropriate design of procurement auctions created to implement renewable energy procurement mandates the efficient structure of production tax credits for renewable energy and the evaluation of the additional costs of integrating intermittent generation into electric power networks