religiosity and earnings management international evidence from the banking industry using an international sample of banks we study how differences in religiosity across countries affect earnings management given that religiosity is a major source of morality and ethical behavior it may reduce excessive risk taking and act as deterrence for earnings manipulations therefore we predict lower earnings management in societies that have higher religiosity consistent with expectations our cross country analysis indicates that religiosity is negatively related to income increasing earnings management for loss avoidance and just meeting or beating prior year s earnings we also find that religiosity reduces income increasing earnings management through abnormal loan loss provisions in additional tests we document that religiosity increases the information value of bank earnings with both earnings persistence and cash flow predictability being enhanced by higher religiosity for the crisis period analysis i e 2007 2009 our evidence shows that banks in countries with higher religiosity exhibit lower probability of reporting asset deterioration and lower probability of having poor performance

the earnings and human capital of american jews this paper analyzes the earnings and returns from human capital investments of second generation american jews compared with non jews jewish men have 16 percent higher earnings other things the same a 20 percent higher rate of return from schooling and a steeper experience earnings profile these patterns persist even after controlling for occupation self employment status and geographic concentration in the new york area there are no systematic differences among jews by parents country of birth the findings suggest that american jews are more productive in creating and using human capital and that this has encouraged greater investments in human capital

a model of educational investment decisions from a probit model of enrollments estimates of the expected net present value of post secondary education are developed for a sample of high school graduates based e xclusively on individual expectations of the relevant costs and benefits at the time of the enrollment decision the results are very plausible and consistent w ith rate of return estimates from studies which rely on ex post income data thi s suggests that students have rational expectationsand relatively good informat ion about future employment opportunities and other factors which determine the returns to educational investment copyright 1987 by mit press

short term load forecasting based on a semi parametric additive model short term load forecasting is an essential instrument in power system planning operation and control many operating decisions are based on load forecasts such as dispatch scheduling of generating capacity reliability analysis and maintenance planning for the generators overestimation of electricity demand will cause a conservative operation which leads to the start up of too many units or excessive energy purchase thereby supplying an unnecessary level of reserve on the other hand underestimation may result in a risky operation with insufficient preparation of spinning reserve causing the system to operate in a vulnerable region to the disturbance in this paper semi parametric additive models are proposed to estimate the relationships between demand and the driver variables specifically the inputs for these models are calendar variables lagged actual demand observations and historical and forecast temperature traces for one or more sites in the target power system in addition to point forecasts prediction intervals are also estimated using a modified bootstrap method suitable for the complex seasonality seen in electricity demand data the proposed methodology has been used to forecast the half hourly electricity demand for up to seven days ahead for power systems in the australian national electricity market the performance of the methodology is validated via out of sample experiments with real data from the power system as well as through on site implementation by the system operator

the effects of religion and denomination on earnings and the returns to human capital the effects of religious and denominational background on earnings and the returns to human capital are examined when religious differences are constrained to be additive apart from a jewish differential there is virtually no evidence that religious or denominational background affects earnings this contrasts with greeley s claims of sizable catholic advantage in separate earnings regressions we find that the marginal returns to catholics from college education exceed those to similar protestants this offsets the disadvantage of lower precollege returns earnings differences between protestant denominations appear to reflect the sorting of protestants into denominations according to schooling and income

birth order schooling and earnings birth order effects are posited by many to affect earnings and schooling we show how such effects can be interpreted to shift either the earnings possibility frontier for siblings or parental preferences we find empirical evidence for birth order effects on age adjusted schooling and on earnings for young u s adults though the latter is not robust for all specifications the examination of intrahousehold allocations suggests that these birth order differences occur despite parental preferences or prices by birth order favoring later borns apparently because of stronger endowment effects that favor firstborns

religion and income heterogeneity between countries this paper tests whether the behaviour of households in different countries is homogeneous with respect to the influence of religion on income the violation of the homogeneity assumption would have two consequences first results based on country studies might not be applicable to other countries second one should be careful when pooling cross country data in this type of research data at household level from the european and world values survey are pooled for 25 western countries we estimate simultaneously an income and a religion equation to correct for the endogeneity of religiousness we find that estimation outcomes are different for low and high income countries whereas church membership is found to have a positive effect on income for high income countries this effect is negative for low income countries this result is robust to denominational distribution participation effects and alternative measures of religiousness

forecasting quantiles of day ahead electricity load accurate load forecasting plays a crucial role in the decision making process of many market participants but probably is most important for the dispatch planning of an electricity market operator despite the competitive forecast accuracy achieved by existing point forecast models point forecasts can only provide limited information relating to the expected level of future load to account for the uncertainty of future load and provide a more complete picture of the future load conditions for dispatch planning purposes quantile forecasts can be useful this paper proposes a computationally efficient approach to forecasting the quantiles of electricity load which is then applied to forecasting in the national electricity market of australia the proposed model performs competitively in comparison with one industry standard and two recently proposed quantile forecasting methods one of the main advantages of the proposed approach is the ease with the number of covariates can be expanded this is a particularly important feature in the context of load forecasting where large numbers of important drivers are usually necessary to provide accurate load forecasts

imposing emission trading scheme on supply chain separate and joint implementation abstract in response to global warming it is urgent to control and reduce greenhouse gas ghg emissions especially from the supply chain perspective the most often discussed topic in this domain indicates that emission trading scheme ets could be employed as one of policy instruments for supply chain emissions management via mathematical models scholars have shown that the employment of emission trading is affecting supply chain performances both environmental and economic in different levels however previous literature focus on the cost effectiveness analysis only from the mathematical aspect to provide policy makers and companies with the theoretical bases on this hot topic it is significant to discuss how ets one of market based instruments could be imposed in the context of supply chain from the mechanical point of view by incorporating ideas from relevant literature this paper generates two concepts modes in imposing ets on supply chain jointly imposed supply chain emission trading e g jointly imposed sc ets and separately imposed supply chain emission trading e g separately imposed sc ets it illustrates the working principles of both concepts modes and conducts a sandbox example to analyze the cost effectiveness of them furthermore this paper discusses the challenges and opportunities of implementing two modes from practical aspects results of quantitative analysis and discussion show that for the sake of both policy makers and supply chain companies the separately imposed sc ets allowing selling permits would be so far the better mode to manage supply chain ghg emissions compared to the jointly imposed sc ets

probabilistic forecasts of the magnitude and timing of peak electricity demand adequate capacity planning requires accurate forecasts of the future magnitude and timing of peak electricity demand electricity demand is affected by the day of the week seasonal variations holiday periods feast days and the weather a model that provides probabilistic forecasts of both magnitude and timing for lead times of one year is presented this model is capable of capturing the main sources of variation in demand and uses simulated weather time series including temperature wind speed and luminosity for producing probabilistic forecasts of future peak demand having access to such probabilistic forecasts provides a means of assessing the uncertainty in the forecasts and can lead to improved decision making and better risk management

detecting and removing discrimination under equal opportunities policies abstract this paper surveys part of the recent voluminous literature on the economics of discrimination focusing on two key questions first how should discrimination be measured and can in fact unambiguous estimates be derived as the basis for detecting where discrimination is present and setting in train measures to eliminate it second to what extent has the implementation of equal opportunities legislation improved the relative standing of women and minority workers in the labour force this section includes a discussion of the likely effects of recent changes in the law such as the equal value amendment in the uk or the introduction of comparable worth in the usa the survey concludes that our ability to detect discrimination at all precisely is still rudimentary and consequently policy measures are likely to be inefficient for this reason

production decisions of new and remanufactured products implications for low carbon emission economy carbon emission is not as free as they used to be under the carbon emission tax policy manufacturers face a choice of whether to reduce their carbon emission through remanufacturing or low carbon technologies in this paper we characterize the optimal carbon emission tax policy through a two period production decision model in which new products and remanufactured products are clearly distinguishable the effects of a carbon emission tax on the optimal production decision of manufacturing and remanufacturing is investigated it is found that there are rational remanufacturing production strategies for different products based on different remanufacturing cost savings and carbon emission savings per remanufactured product under a carbon emission tax policy manufacturers can offset the cannibalisation and negative economic impact of the carbon emission tax policy by making low carbon emission technology investment furthermore the government can stimulate the manufacturer to invest in carbon emission reduction technologies and remanufacturing simultaneously by choosing a reasonable carbon emission tax

education and ethnicity in canada an intergenerational perspective ethnic and intergenerational aspects of human capital investment are explored levels of and cross sectional returns to education across ethnic groups in canada are estimated and large differences observed for men a positive correlation exists between ethnic group average years of education and its return we also find large negative correlations between ethnic group average educational outcomes and the previous generation s fertility suggesting a role for home production as a complement to formal education and supporting models of child quantity quality trade offs very slow intergenerational convergence in ethnic group level educational and labor market outcomes is also observed

low carbon production with low carbon premium in cap and trade regulation abstract manufacturers face a choice of whether to reduce their carbon emissions through employing low carbon technologies though many carbon regulations are set up to curb carbon emissions some firms choose not to take low carbon production because the additional cost of low carbon progressing is high however low carbon production would be a better alternative when we consider consumer s low carbon premium in the cap and trade system in this work we solve the manufacturer s multi product joint pricing and production problem when consumers value the low carbon product higher than the ordinary product our findings provide firms with conditions where low carbon production is profitable furthermore we find that the cap and trade would constrain the total carbon emissions and promote low carbon production simultaneously under certain conditions

the environmental and economic impact of the carbon tax in australia to fulfil its emission reduction target pledged in the copenhagen accord the australian government has determined to introduce a carbon tax from july 1st 2012 this paper simulates the effects on the environment and on the economy of a carbon tax of a 23 per tonne of carbon dioxide proposed by the government with and without a compensation policy we employ a computable general equilibrium model with an environmentally extended social accounting matrix according to the simulation results the carbon tax can cut emissions effectively but will cause a mild economic contraction because the price signal is intact the proposed compensation plan has little impact on emission cuts while significantly mitigating the negative effect of a carbon tax on the economy

short term load forecasting methods an evaluation based on european data this paper uses intraday electricity demand data from ten european countries as the basis of an empirical comparison of univariate methods for prediction up to a day ahead a notable feature of the time series is the presence of both an in traweek and an intraday seasonal cycle the forecasting methods considered in the study include arima modeling periodic ar modeling an extension for double seasonality of holt winters exponential smoothing a recently proposed alternative exponential smoothing formulation and a method based on the principal component analysis pca of the daily demand profiles our results show a similar ranking of methods across the 10 load series the results were disappointing for the new alternative exponential smoothing method and for the periodic ar model the arima and pca methods performed well but the method that consistently performed the best was the double seasonal holt winters exponential smoothing method

design of sustainable supply chains under the emission trading scheme increase in environmental concerns together with legislations are forcing industries to take a fresh look at the impact of their supply chain operations on the environment this paper introduces a mixed integer linear programming based framework for sustainable supply chain design that considers life cycle assessment lca principles in addition to the traditional material balance constraints at each node in the supply chain indeed the framework distinguishes between solid and liquid wastes as well as gaseous emissions due to various production processes and transportation systems the framework is used to evaluate the tradeoffs between economic and environmental objectives under various cost and operating strategies in the aluminum industry the results suggest that current legislation and emission trading schemes ets must be strengthened and harmonized at the global level in order to drive a meaningful environmental strategy moreover the model demonstrates that efficient carbon management strategies will help decision makers to achieve sustainability objectives in a cost effective manner

inventory management under joint product recovery and cap and trade constraints abstract the influence of environmental legislation in inventory control policies is explored previous work on product recovery is extended using the introduction of a cap and trade mechanism in an infinite horizon inventory system in which demand and returns are uncertain demand is met through two different sources namely manufacturing and remanufacturing which differ in cost and greenhouse gas emissions the main contributions of this paper are 1 comparison of system operation in terms of cost and environmental performance under conventional and green inventory policies and 2 managerial insights into the structure of green inventory policies to illustrate the impact of a cap and trade scheme a numerical example is used we solved the problem as a markov decision process and characterized the inventory policies based on the optimal replenishment strategy we also conducted a sensitivity analysis to examine the effect of underlying environmental parameters such as the emission cap and the allowance price in the policy structures the results indicate that decisions are sensitive to carbon prices the inventory policy could play an important role in compliance with environmental legislation although there is threshold carbon price beyond which the company must focus on strategic decisions rather than tactical decisions

people s opium religion and economic attitudes since max weber there has been an active debate on the impact of religion on people s economic attitudes much of the existing evidence however is based on cross country studies in which this impact is confounded by differences in other institutional factors we use the worldvalues surveys to id entify the relationship between intensity of religious beliefs and economic attitudes controlling for country fixed effects we study several economic attitudes towardcooperation the government working women legal rules thriftiness andthe market economy we also distinguish across religious denominations differentiating on whether a religion is dominant in a country we find that on average religious beliefs are associated with good economic attitudes where good is defined as conducive to higher per capita income andgrowth yet religious people tendto be more racist andless favorable with respect to working women these effects differ across religious denominations overall we find that christian religions are more positively associatedwith attitudes conducive to economic growth r 2003 elsevier science b v all rights reserved jel classification a1 e0 n4 z1

global reverse supply chain redesign for household plastic waste under the emission trading scheme with increasing global resource scarcity waste becomes a resource that can be managed globally a reverse supply chain network for waste recycling needs to process all the waste with minimum costs and environmental impact as re processing of waste is one of the major sources of pollution in the recycling processes a mechanism is needed to control and reduce the emission impact in the re processing as a key to facilitate the globalized reverse supply chain and avoid spreading pollutants overseas emission trading schemes ets can function as policy instruments for controlling emissions the ets introduces a trade off between the economic efficiency and the environmental impacts ets has been implemented in europe and is developing rapidly in china too the aim of the research is to re design a reverse supply chain from a global angle based on a case study conducted on household plastic waste distributed from europe to china emission trading restrictions are set on the processing plants in both europe and china we modeled a network optimization problem using integer programing approach allowing the re allocation of intermediate processing plants under emission trading restrictions optimization results show that global relocation of re processors leads to both a reduction of total costs and total transportation emission ets applied to re processors further helps to reduce emissions from both re processing and transportation sectors carbon cap should be carefully set in order to be effective with a given carbon cap the model also shows the effective carbon price range these results give an insight into the feasibility of building a global reverse supply chain for household plastic waste recycling and demonstrate the impact of ets on the network design

price and warranty period decisions for complementary products with horizontal firms cooperation noncooperation strategies abstract the purpose of this paper is to explore the optimal strategies on price and warranty period of two complementary products in a supply chain with two manufacturers and one common retailer from a two stage game theoretic perspective five decentralized models are established by considering the two manufacturers cooperation noncooperation strategies and the firms different bargain powers the corresponding closed form expressions for equilibrium decisions are obtained through a systematic analysis and comparison some interesting and valuable managerial insights are established we find that the retailer always has the advantage to get the higher profit when she is a leader however this is not always valid for two manufacturers for example two manufacturers profits when they are leaders and they adopt the noncooperation strategy in the supply chain are lower than that when two manufacturers and the retailer have the identical market power all channel members as well as consumers benefit from lower retail prices longer warranty periods and larger profits when the two manufacturers adopt cooperation action

wage discrimination across ethnic groups evidence from israel i introduction wage differentials and occupational segregation have been intensively studied and well documented in the economic literature empirical analyses have demonstrated differences by gender and ethnicity and theoretical studies have attempted to explain the results polachek 1975 1993 leads the group that emphasizes human capital differences in explaining wage differences and segregation while bergmann 1974 1986 is in the forefront of a second group of scholars who claim that discrimination is the major source of inequality of wages and occupations in the united states race differentials in earnings and racial segregation decreased dramatically during the 1960s and the 1970s but sex differentials did not in 1980 the duncans 1955 segregation index calculated by fuchs 1989 across 503 occupations was about 30 for blacks versus whites and about 60 for men versus women 1 fuchs 1989 also showed that by 1980 the wage differential between white and black men 15 percent was less than half the difference between white men and white women 40 percent polachek and siebert 1993 137 39 present data showing that in 1990 the pay of u s women averaged 65 to 90 percent of that of men depending on the occupational category the gap has been relatively constant but there is some evidence that it has been narrowing in recent years they also find that earning ratios by occupation in the u k are very similar to parallel ratios in the u s chiswick 1983a 1983b and carlson and swartz 1988 among others examine earnings of ethnic minorities they find that most ethnic groups fare quite poorly compared to the white population but a few minorities jews chinese and japanese do as well or even better than the white majority the earnings gap for most groups declined over the 1960s and the 1970s and the portion of that gap that might be assignable to discrimination also declined in this study we examine ethnic wage differentials discrimination and segregation in the israeli labor market israel provides a tailor made setting for ethnic studies since its jewish population 4 335 million in 1993 consists of people with a large diversity in their countries of origin the first wave of jewish immigrants following the establishment of the state of israel in 1948 were holocaust survivors from europe or refugees from the predominantly moslem countries of north africa the middle east and yemen others came from north and south america western europe south africa and australia to live a more meaningful jewish life in the homeland israel encouraged and assisted these immigrants as part of an active pro immigration ideology and policy the main wave of immigration arrived in the late 1940s and early 1950s as friedlander 1975 shows between 1948 and 1952 the jewish population in israel increased from about 630 000 to nearly one and a half million an annual average growth rate of over 24 percent later there were three significant waves of immigration the first occurred at the beginning of the 1960s with annual immigration reaching an average of 57 000 per year an increase of 2 percent per year in population the second occurred in 1972 73 when 55 000 immigrants arrived annually an annual population increase of 1 7 percent the third large wave began in august 1989 with a massive influx of immigrants from the former u s s r generating about a 10 percent increase in the population in the years 1990 93 the absolute figures are 199 516 immigrants in 1990 176 100 in 1991 77 057 in 1992 and 66 145 in 1993 israel central bureau of statistics 1994 in 1991 about 15 000 ethiopian jews also arrived in israel the major ethnic division in israel is based on the country of origin although jews of various origins speak a number of different languages and perceive themselves as having some distinctive ethnic characteristics the main distinction is between jews originating from asia and africa excluding south africa easterners and those from america europe south africa and australia westerners

parental background educational attainments and returns to schooling and to marriage the case of israel this paper investigates the effect of family background attainments and on returns to own and wife s schooling for jewish males israel three dimensions of paternal background are referred to father s education the prestige of the father s occupation and whether the father is of a western origin an advantage in the western oriented israeli society for each of these types of segmentation it is found that both the level of and the returns to own and wife s schooling after some years of marriage are higher for those coming from a more favourable background these empirical findings are consistent with an investment in schooling model in which differences in demand productivity of own and wife s schooling vary more than differences in supply of investment funds

religion religiosity and educational attainment evidence from the compulsory education system in england this paper investigates the effect of religion on the educational attainment of pupils in their final year of compulsory education in england the results show that pupils that identify with any re

the less extreme the more you leave radical islam and willingness to migrate summary this paper studies radical islam as a determinant of individuals willingness to migrate surprisingly despite its relevance in the political debate this topic has not been investigated empirically in the literature in order to fill this gap we develop a model of the decision to migrate focusing in particular on the role played by cultural traits more specifically we focus on radical islam as a deterrent for migration following berman 2003 we define radical islam as a set of ideologies also referred to as political islam holding that islam should guide not only personal life but also social and political life in our model more radical values imply a higher psychological cost of migrating this cost derives from the fact that connections with socio religious friends and neighbors are generally not maintained after migration thus deterring individuals from migrating mayers 2000 we then test empirically the predictions of the model using individual level data from the second 2010 11 and third 2012 14 waves of the arab barometer our results suggest that ceteris paribus more radical individuals are less willing to migrate this finding is robust to alternative specifications of the model and to the use of instrumental variables and propensity score matching aimed at addressing the potential endogeneity of radical islam the result is also qualitatively unchanged when using aggregate data on actual outflows of migrants

low carbon product selection with carbon tax and competition effects of the power structure abstract this paper considers product selection strategies of two competitive firms in the presence of carbon tax optimal strategies are developed for product selection of the firm with two game structures namely the nash game and the stackelberg game by which the paper conducts an analytical examination of the effect of power structure on the product selection strategy of the firm over various levels of carbon tax rate the critical managerial findings derived with the studies are as follows i two competitive firms will always adopt the same product strategy with the nash pricing game regardless of the carbon tax rate which is in contrast to that they will adopt a differentiated product strategy over the low carbon tax rates with the stackelberg pricing game ii two competitive firms will both select the common or low carbon product with randomness over the middle carbon tax rates with the nash product selection game which is contrast to that the randomness in their product selections is removed with the stackelberg product selection game which leads to an existence of the pure strategy stackelberg equilibrium for their product selection strategies over the middle carbon tax rates the inherent mechanisms leading to these essential differences are also discussed in the paper

how green is your scheme greenhouse gas control the australian way australia managed to pass a national carbon pricing scheme into legislation in november 2011 which has come into effect from july 2012 the scheme includes elements of a co2 equivalent tax as a short prelude to emission trading several fundamental problems remain unaddressed including the continuing rise of emissions the scale of growth and economic activity the promotion of emission trading subsidies to polluters the hidden promotion of banking and finance sectors the new policy appears primarily targeted at job creation and business as usual we argue that the prospects for any meaningful reduction in emission levels are extremely unlikely

a literature review of economic studies on carbon pricing and australian wholesale electricity markets abstract with the ongoing development of australian anthropogenic climate change mitigation policies there has been a steady increase in modelling studies undertaken to estimate australian carbon prices and their impact on existing electricity markets this article summarises some of the more prominent studies completed by many of australia s foremost economic modelling firms we developed a simple approach for testing the consistency of these studies and their findings in relation to carbon pass through unfortunately we have established that the studies are entirely inconsistent in their estimation of carbon pass through furthermore we were unable to establish why the estimation of carbon pass through varies so significantly this has important implications for policy makers given much of the compensation to be paid to households and businesses under the clean energy future package is predicated on simple assumptions of carbon pass through based upon our analysis of these economic studies our conclusion is that australian policy makers are best guided by relying upon the numerous a posteriori estimations of pass through in the european union emissions trading scheme ets rather than australian a priori studies

tactical supply chain planning under a carbon tax policy scheme a case study greenhouse gas emissions are receiving greater scrutiny in many countries due to international forces to reduce anthropogenic global climate change industry and their supply chains represent a major source of these emissions this paper presents a tactical supply chain planning model that integrates economic and carbon emission objectives under a carbon tax policy scheme a modified cross entropy solution method is adopted to solve the proposed nonlinear supply chain planning model numerical experiments are completed utilizing data from an actual organization in australia where a carbon tax is in operation the analyses of the numerical results provide important organizational and policy insights on 1 the financial and emissions reduction impacts of a carbon tax at the tactical planning level 2 the use of cost emission tradeoff analysis for making informed decisions on investments 3 the way to price carbon for maximum environmental returns per dollar increase in supply chain cost

emission policies and their analysis for the design of hybrid and dedicated closed loop supply chains abstract government legislation and consumer awareness on carbon emissions have required industries to seek alternative ways to reorganize their supply chains therefore industries have to consider not only the activities in the forward supply chain but also in the reverse supply chain an integrated supply chain that combines the activities of both the forward and reverse supply chains is referred to as the closed loop supply chain clsc there are two main types of clsc structures hybrid and dedicated in this research we analyze the effect of carbon emissions consideration on the design of both hybrid and dedicated clscs in particular we develop a set of integrated mixed integer linear programming milp models to quantify and compare both of the environmental and economic impacts of carbon emissions policies carbon cap carbon tax and carbon cap and trade and market factors scale effect product return rate and the customer demand on the design of clscs with respect to both clsc structures our analysis shows that when market conditions are considered total cost and total emissions are more sensitive to customer demand than to the scale effect and the product return rate when an industry faces fluctuation on the quantity of the returned products adopting a dedicated clsc would lead to a lower total cost under cap and trade policy dedicated clsc can produce less total emissions we also observe that dedicated clsc is more cost efficient under carbon cap policy and hybrid clsc is more emissions efficient when the carbon tax is introduced

ethnicity race and earnings abstract utilizing the 1980 and 1990 usa censuses and blinder oaxaca decompositions we examine the extent of discrimination across women and men by ancestry and race the charge that blinder oaxaca decompositions indicate cultural rather than discriminatory differentials is addressed with two futher experiments one that controls for color and varies culture and one that controls for culture and varies color

a review of the decomposition methodology for extracting and identifying the fluctuation characteristics in electricity demand forecasting abstract electricity consumption data is regarded as nonlinear non stationary series and is often made up by a superposition of several distinct frequencies thus most of the conventional approaches currently employed for the modeling and forecasting involve great complexity and uncertainty recently fluctuation characteristic analysis has increasingly become essential step in the application of electricity demand forecasting yet the implementation of this analysis is an inherently difficult task to obtain reasonable accuracy and stability in the modeling there has been the tendency to accommodate multidimensional attributes of the consumption demands with decomposition based approach in terms of more advanced and hybrid form and the decomposition can be achieved through utilization of two different procedures namely component model based and frequency domain analysis based decomposition consequently a comprehensive review and summarization of decomposition based approach for the prediction is conducted in this paper more specifically the issues of demand forecasting classification the dependency between the electricity demand and external indicators features of various decomposition approach as well as the unique fluctuation characteristic of electricity demand at different time scales are discussed in addition future research directions of the decomposition based prediction approach are outlined

religion and economy religion has a two way interaction with political economy with religion viewed as a dependent variable a central question is how economic development and political institutions affect religious participation and beliefs with religion viewed as an independent variable a key issue is how religiosity affects individual characteristics such as work ethic honesty and thrift and thereby influences economic performance in this paper we sketch previous studies of this two way interaction but focus on our ongoing quantitative research with international data

economic growth regressions for the american states a sensitivity analysis i introduction researchers motivated by a variety of questions turn to data on the economic performance of the american states to analyze their ideas empirically the appeal of cross state empirical analysis derives from the fact that while states differ in relevant dimensions they are not so different as to make omitted variables an overwhelming source of error for example the state economies operate under the same monetary regime the federal reserve comparable legal institutions the u s constitution and borders open to the flow of productive factors knowledge and products cross state analysis avoids the myriad structural differences that encumber cross national empirical analysis thus investigators feel secure in considering a relatively small number of control variables in attempting to establish a statistical relationship between state economic performance and a particular variable of interest the availability of uniform and accurate time series data for the states adds to the appeal of cross state regression models despite the advantages associated with evaluating institutionally similar economies researchers who rely on state regressions find little systematic guidance concerning which variables to include and other basic specification issues for instance do demographic and geographic characteristics vary sufficiently across states to require independent controls do cultural or climatic conditions affect growth or are these variables correlated with other factors that may affect growth such as labor force participation rates or education levels a review of the extensive literature reveals that few studies control for the variables analyzed by other researchers these specification differences make it hard to evaluate and compare the results of existing studies bartik 1991 and phillips and goss 1995 illustrate this problem as they attempt to garner the effect of taxes on state economic development from dozens of studies that employ alternative specifications and methodologies they use meta regression analysis mra to test whether specification changes and alternative variables significantly affect the estimated elasticity of state growth with respect to taxes the mra technique focuses on the sensitivity of the estimated coefficients for state tax variables to model variation in this paper we employ a technique to assess the sensitivity of numerous control variables identified in the state growth literature we also introduce several new control variables the approach identifies which variables are robust to small changes in the conditioning information set our procedure closely follows that in levine and renelt 1992 which for its part relies on the extreme bounds analysis eba suggested by learner 1983 1985 1 the main difference is that we employ annual panel data on the american states pooling cross sectional and time series data whereas levine and renelt employ cross country data averaged over 20 year or even longer time intervals the cross country studies such as those assessed in levine and renelt that average long time periods generally seek to identify factors associated with long run steady state growth the u s state studies using annual panel data do not share a comparable unifying purpose relationships estimated from yearly data reveal short term responses and pick up business cycle effects which confounds drawing implications about growth theory with this qualification in mind the results presented below indicate which variables included in past studies are robust and provide a set of core variables as a starting point for future research that relies on state growth regressions and annual panel data finally the findings demonstrate that several important conclusions in the literature depend on how variables are measured for example the relationship between state growth and government size reverses sign depending on whether we denominate government size in per capita terms or as a share of state income

temperature and seasonality influences on spanish electricity load abstract deregulation of the spanish electricity market in 1998 and the possible listing of electricity or weather derivative contracts have encouraged the study of the relationship between electricity demand and weather in spain in this paper a transfer function intervention model is developed for forecasting daily electricity load from cooling and heating degree days the influence of weather and seasonality is proved and is significant even when the autoregressive effects and the dynamic specification of the temperature are taken into account the estimated general model shows a high predictive power the results and information presented in this paper could be of interest for current users and potential traders in the deregulated spanish electricity market

social identity and preferences social identities prescribe behaviors for people we identify the marginal behavioral effect of these norms on discount rates and risk aversion by measuring how laboratory subjects choices change when an aspect of social identity is made salient when we make ethnic identity salient to asian american subjects they make more patient choices when we make racial identity salient to black subjects non immigrant blacks but not immigrant blacks make more patient choices making gender identity salient has no effect on intertemporal or risk choices

a future for carbon taxes abstract carbon taxes have been frequently advocated as a cost effective instrument for reducing emissions however in the practice of environmental policies only six countries have implemented taxes based on the carbon content of the energy products in this paper we evaluate carbon taxes with regard to their competitiveness distributional and environmental impacts the evidence shows that carbon taxes may be an interesting policy option and that their main negative impacts may be compensated through the design of the tax and the use of the generated fiscal revenues

family labour supply and fertility a two regime model the central hypothesis of the new micro economics of fertility was examined i e because children are female time intensive fertility is inversely related to the mothers wage a theoretical model of lifetime family labor supply and completed fertility which forms the basis for the subsequent empirical investigation is presented empirical estimates of the model are provided using 1971 canadian census data the 1 period model of completed family size and lifetime labor supply indicates that fertility and labor supply behavior of families where the wife participates in the labor market will differ from that of families with never participating wives the systematic differences arise because families with nonworking wives face the additional binding constraint of an inflexible supply of wifes time to the home a comparison of these 2 regimes allows inferences concerning the female time intensity of children and the substitutability of husbands and wifes time in the context of the 1 period model the relevant criterion for separating families into the 2 regimes is the lifetime rather than current participation status the evidence suggests that when this procedure is followed much doubt is cast on the conventional wisdom that children are female time intensive the usual inverse relation found between wifes wage or education and completed family size appears to be the result of a complex interaction between wage rates lifetime labor force participation and fertility some support is found for complementarity between the home time of the husband and wife but the evidence is not totally consistent results of the female participation equation strongly suggest complementarity proxies for the husbands lifetime labor supply suggest weak or zero complementarity when the sample is split by current participation of the wife rather than lifetime participation then the results support conventional wisdom concerning the female time intensity of children and replicate kneisners finding of complementarity between husband and wifes time reconciling these differences within the framework of the 1 period model is difficult since it yields no predictions concerning current variables yet since the wifes lifetime participation is the correct criterion for allocating families to the 2 regimes under the 1 period model doubt must remain concerning the female time intensity of children until the current lifetime results are reconciled

a general equilibrium impact study of the emissions reduction fund in australia by using a national environmental and economic model abstract several climate change policies such as emissions trading schemes and carbon taxes have been implemented in many countries and regions around the world however the current coalition government in australia does not prefer such methods and has argued that these policies would substantially increase the electricity price and weaken the australian competitiveness and the whole economy subsequently the government replaced the carbon tax policy in july 2014 with its emissions reduction fund which fundamentally uses the government budget of a 2 55 billion to buy emission abatements from polluters there are major arguments among the australian public about the efficiency and the effects of this approach but the economic effects are still unidentified this study aims to examine the economy wide effects of this policy on the australian economy by employing a national environmental and economic general equilibrium model so that australians and international audience would be aware of the impacts and how the reverse auction and carbon subsidy work as a policy to reduce emissions at large scales across all sectors in a country results show that australia only experiences relatively small impact on its economy real gdp only declines by 0 3 0 4 over all scenarios industrial and private sectors also experience relatively small unfavourable impacts but the output and export level of the agricultural commodity will decline substantially the renewable sectors are expanded to compensate output reductions in fossil fuel electricity generation sectors though the expansion is insufficient to compensate for the losses

the bicausal relation between religion and income in this article the relation between religion and income is investigated using a micro dataset for the netherlands religion is measured by religious membership and by participation instead of estimating a religion equation and an income equation separately joint regression is preferred since this generally yields more efficient estimates following the single equation approach both religious measures are found to decrease income significantly and income is found to affect religion negatively however these cross effects become insignificant once the equations are estimated simultaneously in contrast the effects of socio economic characteristics on religion and income hardly differ between the approaches

religious participation and income the relationship between religion and income has been explored in several studies in this paper we extend this inquiry by arguing that religious participation through its effects on preferences and net earnings potential reduces participants incomes similarly we argue that high incomes discourage religious participation by encouraging individuals to substitute market work for religious activities in an empirical model we simultaneously estimate the effects of religious participation on income and income on religious participation using us state data on per capita personal income and church membership the results strongly support our hypotheses 2002 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

deregulating religion the economics of church and state traditional religious research fails to recognize religion as a market phenomenon it especially overlooks supply side factors that shape the incentives and opportunities of religious firms emphasizing instead demand side shifts in the perceptions tastes and needs of consumers this paper reviews the effects of government actions that alter religious supply a longer version appears in economic inquiry 40 2 april 1997

differences in education and earnings across racial and ethnic groups tastes discrimination and investments in child quality viewing the united states as comprising many racial and ethnic groups it is shown that group differences in earnings schooling and rates of return from schooling are striking and that the groups with higher levels of schooling also have higher rates of return these data are shown to be consistent with a child quality investment model but they are not consistent with the hypotheses that the primary determinants of schooling level are discrimination minority group status differences in time preference discount rates or tastes for schooling group differences in fertility and female labor supply are examined as partial determinants of investment in child quality policy implications are discussed this paper was originally presented at the 1987 annual meeting of the population association of america see population index vol 53 no 3 fall 1987 p 443 excerpt

introduction to the economics of religion after a very long hiatus economists have begun again to study the relationship between economics and religion this article seeks to summarize and evaluate the principal themes and empirical findings that have appeared in some 200 recent papers on the economics of religion although some of the research concerns the economic consequences of religiosity most applies standard economic theory to the study of individual religious activity the characteristics of religious groups and the impact of regulation and competition on religious markets

an analysis of the earnings and employment of asian american men this paper analyzes the earnings and employment of chinese japanese filipino and white men born in the united states the chinese and japanese have higher levels of schooling and earnings than white men and the japanese work more weeks ceteris paribus there are no substantive group differences in these variables or in returns from schooling the filipinos have a lower level of schooling earnings employment and returns from schooling it is therefore not appropriate to view asian americans as a single disadvantaged minority group further the success of the chinese and japanese challenges conventional wisdom regarding the consequences of racial discrimination

forward and backward intergenerational goods why is social security good for the environment this paper studies the ability of nonmarket institutions to invest optimally in forward intergenerational goods figs such as education and the environment when agents are selfish or exhibit paternalistic altruism we show that backward intergenerational goods bigs such as social security play a crucial role in sustaining investment in figs without them investment is inefficiently low but with them optimal investment is possible we also show that making the provision of bigs mandatory crowds out the voluntary provision of figs and that population aging can increase investment in figs

the skills and economic status of american jewry trends over the last half century the general social surveys cumulative data file is used to analyze the schooling occupational status and earnings of american jews jews are identified by a question on religion at age 16 the analysis focuses on trends within the survey period and intergenerational changes from the father to the respondent ceteris paribus jews have significantly higher levels of schooling occupational status and earnings than other whites and within the survey period there is no trend in the differential the jewish fathers also had higher levels of achievement than other fathers but the differentials increased from the father s to the respondent s generation

forecasting next day electricity prices by time series models in the framework of competitive electricity markets power producers and consumers need accurate price forecasting tools price forecasts embody crucial information for producers and consumers when planning bidding strategies in order to maximize their benefits and utilities respectively this paper provides two highly accurate yet efficient price forecasting tools based on time series analysis dynamic regression and transfer function models these techniques are explained and checked against each other results and discussions from real world case studies based on the electricity markets of mainland spain and california are presented

closed loop supply chain network design with multiple transportation modes under stochastic demand and uncertain carbon tax abstract we optimize the design of a closed loop supply chain network that encompasses flows in both forward and reverse directions and is subject to uncertainty in demands for both new and returned products the model also accommodates a carbon tax with tax rate uncertainty the proposed model is a three stage hybrid robust stochastic program that combines probabilistic scenarios for the demands and return quantities with uncertainty sets for the carbon tax rates the first stage decisions are facility investments the second stage concerns the plan for distributing new and collecting returned products after realization of demands and returns and the numbers of transportation units of various modes are the third stage decisions the second and third stage decisions may adjust to the realization of the carbon tax rate for computational tractability we restrict them to be affine functions of the carbon tax rate benders cuts are generated using recent duality developments for robust linear programs computational results show that adjusting product flows to the tax rate provides negligible benefit but the ability to adjust transportation mode capacities can substitute for building additional facilities as a way to respond to carbon tax uncertainty

carbon pricing versus emissions trading a supply chain planning perspective abstract carbon pricing taxes and carbon emissions trading are two globally practiced carbon regulatory policy schemes this paper presents an analytical supply chain planning model that can be used to examine the supply chain performance at the tactical operational planning level under these two policy schemes model implementation and analyses are completed using actual data from a company operating in australia where these environmental regulatory policies are practiced numerical results provide important managerial and practical implications and policy insights in particular the results show that there are inflection points where both carbon pricing and trading schemes could influence costs or emissions reductions an erratic nonlinear emissions reduction trend is observed in a carbon pricing scheme as the carbon price increases steadily whereas emissions reduction in a carbon trading scheme follows a relatively linear trend with a nonlinear cost increase overall a carbon trading mechanism although imperfect appears to result in better supply chain performance in terms of emissions generation cost and service level even though a carbon tax may be more worthwhile from an uncertainty perspective as emissions trading costs depend on numerous uncertain market conditions

church attendance in great britain an ordered logit approach the church attendance decision of individual economic agents is analysed within a becker style allocation of time framework using an ordered logit model with data derived from the british household panel study bhps separate attendance equations are estimated for males and females the empirical results in line with previous north american studies suggest that labour income variables do account for some of the variation in attendance in addition attendance is found to be correlated with factors such as denominational affiliation educational attainment and intensity of belief

the impact of carbon pricing on a closed loop supply chain an australian case study concerns about industrial and supply chain implications on our natural environment have existed for decades climate change and greenhouse gas emissions have caused countries to implement various instruments ranging from taxes permits and voluntary incentives to required regulatory policies given this environment we develop a unified optimization model for a closed loop supply chain in which the carbon emission is expressed in terms of dollar carbon cost this study is one of the first to evaluate the forward and reverse supply chain influences on the carbon footprint a comparative analysis is completed with a decomposition of cost and environmental influences across supply chain functions we utilize data from a company located in australia where the government is currently introducing a carbon pricing scheme we find that variations in cost and environmental impacts occur over ranges of carbon pricing characteristics and patterns of the numerical results over these ranges provide insights for corporate key strategies and potential additional government policies these results and implications are analyzed along with limitations and directions for future research

modeling and short term forecasting of new south wales electricity system load this article employs bayesian semiparametric regression methodology to model intraday electricity load data and obtain short term load forecasts the role of such forecasts in the new south wales wholesale electricity market is discussed and the method applied to new south wales system load data the semiparametric regression model used identifies daily periodic weekly periodic and temperature sensitive components of load each component is decomposed as a linear combination of basis functions with a nonzero probability mass that the corresponding coefficients are exactly zero three possible models for the errors are also considered including independent autoregressive and first differenced autoregressive models a moving window of data is used to overcome the slow time varying nature of the temperature and periodic effects the entire model is estimated using a bayesian markov chain monte carlo approach and forecasts are obtained using a monte carlo sample from the joint predictive distribution o

density forecasting for long term peak electricity demand long term electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in planning for future generation facilities and transmission augmentation in a long term context planners must adopt a probabilistic view of potential peak demand levels therefore density forecasts providing estimates of the full probability distributions of the possible future values of the demand are more helpful than point forecasts and are necessary for utilities to evaluate and hedge the financial risk accrued by demand variability and forecasting uncertainty this paper proposes a new methodology to forecast the density of long term peak electricity demand peak electricity demand in a given season is subject to a range of uncertainties including underlying population growth changing technology economic conditions prevailing weather conditions and the timing of those conditions as well as the general randomness inherent in individual usage it is also subject to some known calendar effects due to the time of day day of week time of year and public holidays a comprehensive forecasting solution is described in this paper first semi parametric additive models are used to estimate the relationships between demand and the driver variables including temperatures calendar effects and some demographic and economic variables then the demand distributions are forecasted by using a mixture of temperature simulation assumed future economic scenarios and residual bootstrapping the temperature simulation is implemented through a new seasonal bootstrapping method with variable blocks the proposed methodology has been used to forecast the probability distribution of annual and weekly peak electricity demand for south australia since 2007 the performance of the methodology is evaluated by comparing the forecast results with the actual demand of the summer 2007 2008

catholic schools dropout rates and educational attainment this paper examines the effect of catholic schooling on high school dropout rates and educational attainment particular attention is given to the effect of selection into the catholic school sector after adjusting for self selection we find that sophomores in the catholic schools are still substantially more likely to graduate with their class it is also shown that seniors in the catholic schools are not more likely to acquire more schooling than other seniors if selection is taken into account

low carbon product multi objective optimization design for meeting requirements of enterprise user and government abstract in order to achieve government s supervision on enterprise s carbon emissions it should be considered how to introduce carbon tax of carbon tax system into product design and how to handle resulting chain reaction and impact thus it needs to handle not only the coupling or conflict among the design objectives of performance cost and carbon tax of enterprise product but also the coupling or conflict of requirements among enterprise user and government for handling this problem this paper develops a low carbon product multi objective optimization design method for meeting triple win requirements of enterprise user and government which is called l cpmod for short this method successively builds trilateral requirement model enterprise user and government their own requirement submodel a three level coupled systematic multi objective optimization problem that is very difficult to solve thus this paper proposes a solving approach that uses non dominated sorting genetic algorithm ii nsga ii with a simplified solving strategy nsga with strategy way for short which employs system decomposition coupling relationship among variables and transformations among models in every layer finally a case study shows that the proposed method is feasible

facility location and capacity acquisition under carbon tax and emissions limits to centralize or to decentralize abstract we investigate the effect of environmental regulations in the form of a carbon tax and command and control legislation on plant capacity and location decisions of a firm in this context command and control involves a limit on the total emissions and penalties for any polluter exceeding this environmental limit while carbon tax involves a variable cost for emissions we also propose two novel policy options that should be considered by policy makers for transportation emissions 1 a per unit per mile transportation penalty and 2 a collective transportation emissions policy with a limit on total transportation emissions that encourages emission and cost efficient facility networks we devise an exact algorithm to solve the arising discontinuous nonlinear integer problem we also consider simplified versions of the problem to gain analytical insights on factors driving the solutions for the more accurate yet complex scenarios we develop a realistic dataset from the auto industry gleaned from publicly available sources to highlight key results of the model through analysis of this representative data we identify the environmental limits and penalties that would drive the company to compliance we find that stricter regulations without high penalties would not assure compliance as the benefits of increased scale associated with a centralized plant frequently outweigh the regulatory penalties at the strategic level a production emissions tax does not encourage companies to reduce production emissions however high lump sum penalties with intermediate limits reduce both regional production and total transportation emissions we find that for regional production emissions while a command and control scheme with a high lump sum emissions penalty is effective in reducing emissions a per unit carbon tax has no effect interestingly the opposite is true for total transportation emissions where we observe that the per unit per mile transportation emissions tax is more effective than a command and control scheme finally we also find that companies with low production pollution low demand or high transportation costs should consider decentralization to comply with the environmental regulations