environmental regulation and u s economic growth in this article we quantify the costs of pollution controls by reporting the results of simulations of the growth of the u s economy with and without regulation for this purpose we have constructed a detailed model of the economy that includes the determinants of long term growth we have also analyzed the interaction between industries in order to capture the full repercussions of environmental regulations however we have not attempted to assess the benefits resulting from a cleaner environment we find that pollution abatement has emerged as a major claimant on the resources of the u s economy the cost of emission controls is more than 10 of the total cost of government purchases of goods and services

an integral evaluation of dieselisation policies for households cars abstract reducing energy consumption and co 2 emissions in the transport sector is a priority for great britain and other european countries as part of their agreements made in the kyoto protocol and the voluntary agreement to achieve these goals it has been proposed to increase the market share of diesel vehicles which are more efficient than petrol ones based on partial approaches previous research concluded that increasing the share of diesel vehicles will decrease co 2 emissions see al hinti et al 2007 jeong et al 2009 zervas 2006 unlike these approaches i use an integral approach based on discrete choice models to analyse diesel vehicle penetration in a broader context of transport in great britain i provide for the first time empirical evidence which is in line with bonilla s 2009 argument that only improvements in vehicle efficiency will not be enough to achieve their goals of mitigation of energy consumption and co 2 emissions the model shows the technical limitations that the penetration of diesel vehicles faces and that a combination of improvements in public transportation and taxes on fuel prices is the most effective policy combination to reduce the total amount of energy consumption and co 2 emissions among the analysed dieselisation polices

welfare effects of distortionary fringe benefits taxation the case of employer provided cars in europe many employees receive company cars as fringe benefits induced by taxation we analyze the welfare effects of company car taxation for the netherlands by estimating to what extent car expenditure and private car travel change when employees receive a company car tax treatment of company cars generates an annual welfare loss ranging from 600 to 780 per company car mainly due to a shift toward more expensive cars from 420 to 600 but also due to increased private travel 180 for the whole of europe the annual welfare loss is about 12 billion 2011 by the economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

feebates rebates and gas guzzler taxes a study of incentives for increased fuel economy abstract us fuel economy standards have not been changed significantly in 20 years feebates are a market based alternative in which vehicles with fuel consumption rates above a pivot point are charged fees while vehicles below receive rebates by choice of pivot points feebate systems can be made revenue neutral feebates have been analyzed before this study re examines feebates using recent data assesses how the undervaluing of fuel economy by consumers might affect their efficacy tests sensitivity to the cost of fuel economy technology and price elasticities of vehicle demand and adds assessments of gas guzzler taxes or rebates alone a feebate rate of 500 per 0 01 gallon per mile gpm produces a 16 percent increase in fuel economy while a 1000 per 0 01 gpm results in a 29 percent increase even if consumers count only the first 3 years of fuel savings unit sales decline by about 0 5 percent but sales revenues increase because the added value of fuel economy technologies outweighs the decrease in sales in all cases the vast majority of fuel economy increase is due to adoption of fuel economy technologies rather than shifts in sales

estimating aggregate automotive income elasticities from the population income share elasticity the conventional approach to estimating the income responsiveness of a product s sales involves collecting data on sales as a function of income and product prices and then estimating a demand model in many cases it is very difficult to either collect the required data or reliably estimate the demand model this article develops an alternative approach toward estimating these income responsiveness parameters using only the average income of the product s buyers and the population income distribution we illustrate our technique with automotive data and obtain fairly intuitive results

mass car ownership in the emerging market giants the typical urban household in china owns a tv a refrigerator a washing machine and a computer but does not yet own a car in this paper we draw on data for a panel of countries and detailed household level surveys for the largest emerging markets to document a remarkably stable relationship between gdp per capita and car ownership highlighting the importance of within country income distribution factors we find that car ownership is low up to per capita incomes of about us 5000 and then takes off very rapidly several emerging markets including india and china the most populous countries in the world are currently at the stage of development when such takeoff is expected to take place we project that the number of cars will increase by 2 3 billion between 2005 and 2050 with an increase by 1 9 billion in emerging market and developing countries we outline a number of possible policy options to deal with the implications for the countries affected and the world as a whole marcos chamon paolo mauro and yohei okawa

social cost of environmental quality regulations a general equilibrium analysis the use of cost benefit analysis by federal regulatory agencies has expanded greatly in scope and sophistication unfortunately agencies continue to employ private cost rather than social cost to evaluate environmental quality regulations furthermore general equilibrium impacts and intertemporal effects of regulations are typically not included in the evaluation in this paper we estimate the social cost of environmental quality regulations mandated by the clean air and clean water acts we construct an econometric general equilibrium model of the united states to demonstrate that social cost estimates diverge sharply from private cost estimates we also demonstrate that general equilibrium impacts are significant and pervasive and that intertemporal effects of the regulations heretofore ignored are significant

the double dividend second best worlds and real world environmental policy abstract the recent series of papers by bovemberg goulder parry and others argue that the double dividend is unlikely to exist because of second best problems they argue that the imposition of environmental tax in an economy already distorted by income taxes will further distort the economy by reducing incentives to supply labor our paper argues that this is not likely to be the case because of the restrictive assumptions made by these models and because of the role of the environment as a factor of production

picking winners modelling the costs of technology specific climate policy in the u s passenger vehicle sector abstract researchers debate the cost effectiveness of technology specific versus technology neutral climate policies but few quantify the differences using the case of low carbon vehicle technologies in the us passenger vehicle sector ethanol plug in electric and hydrogen we develop a technology adoption simulation model that represents increasing returns to adoption in both financial costs and consumer preferences representing uncertainty through monte carlo analysis we compare the policy costs tonne co2 out to 2050 of i a technology neutral carbon tax ii a somewhat neutral vehicle standard requiring low carbon vehicle sales but allowing competition among technologies and iii technology specific vehicle standards requiring sales of just one technology on average across simulations the carbon tax is twice as cost effective as the best vehicle standard in part because the tax more substantially affects vehicle use rates among the vehicle standards a technology specific standard that selects the right winner plug in electric vehicles is more cost effective than the neutral standard as it more quickly stimulates technology improvement however there is risk in a technology specific approach mistakenly forcing a loser technology hydrogen results in policy costs that are 2 to 5 times higher than other policies results can help policymakers trade off the costs and risks of different climate policy options

is demand for polluting goods manageable an econometric study of car ownership and use in mexico abstract our motivation for estimating a demand system for gasoline and cars is its strategic relevance to policy objectives such as pollution control if demand is responsive to pricing demand reductions for polluting goods will provide an important share of the pollution reductions otherwise cleaner technologies will have to do most of the job we estimate a model of gasoline demand and car ownership in mexico using a panel of annual observations by state key features that we introduce include instrumental variables on differenced data and the treatment of possible dynamics measurement errors in the data and unobserved individual state characteristics we use tests of serial correlation in the a residuals to model the dynamics properly the resulting demand system is quite responsive to pricing even in the short term 0 6 for the own price elasticity of gasoline but we emphasize a medium to long term perspective of 5 10 years as most relevant for policy five to ten year elasticity estimates are in the range of 1 25 to 1 13 applying these elasticity estimates to data on pollution control options for the vehicle fleet in mexico city the costs of reaching a target for pollution reductions would be 45 more expensive if one were not willing to use a demand management instrument such a gasoline tax in the control program

heating technology and energy use a discrete continuous choice approach to norwegian household energy demand abstract the aim of this paper is to describe the structure of the household s energy demand as a discrete continuous choice and on this basis establish an econometric model suitable for the data available in the norwegian energy surveys the discrete appliance choice is specified as a multinomial logit model with a mixture of appliance attributes operating costs and individual characteristics income housing unit characteristics etc as explanatory variables in the next step the continuous choice of energy use is modelled conditional on the appliance choice the energy prices turn out to be significant both when estimating the appliance choice and the conditional energy demand the estimated price elasticity for energy exceeds minus unity the paper discusses how this relatively strong price response should be interpreted in the context of other econometric analysis with no explicit appliance dependence finally the significance of the many household characteristics at both stages of the model signals a high degree of heterogeneity within the households which justifies the use of detailed micro data in the modelling of the energy demand

demand for road fuel in a small developing economy the case of sri lanka abstract this paper estimates the demand for road fuel petrol and auto diesel in the context of a small developing economy sri lanka the data set covers a period of 39 years from 1964 to 2002 representing both close economy and open economy policy regimes the estimation procedure is based on seemingly unrelated regression equation sure methodology mainly to capture substitutability of petrol and diesel in road transportation the effect of auto fuel prices on vehicle demand is also analyzed as a part of the analysis in addition to confirming existing evidence on road fuel demand the findings reveal some interesting evidence with respect to own price elasticity cross price elasticity lag effects income and vehicle mix variables

should high tax countries pursue revenue neutral ecological tax reforms abstract a politically intriguing question concerning the effects of a revenue neutral ecological tax reform is whether such a political measure may succeed in providing a double dividend to improve environmental quality and increase employment simultaneously theoretical studies reveal that for a competitive labor market a green tax reform hardly yields a positive employment effect whereas for a non competitive market such an effect may well be obtained however little attention has focused on whether the ecological dividend remains attainable when an employment dividend accrues we show for three different non competitive labor market scenarios that a positive employment effect can be expected but that for high tax countries environmental quality plausibly deteriorates when a revenue neutral ecological tax reform is implemented

the welfare effects of temporary tax cuts and subsidies theory estimation and applications this article presents a tractable and intuitive theory on the welfare effects of temporary tax cuts and subsidies fiscal policies that i generically term holidays the kaldor hicks efficiency effects are theoretically ambiguous with competing pro and anti efficiency effects on newly incentivized versus time shifted purchases to rectify this ambiguity i derive expressions for the welfare effects that are consistent with constant elasticity assumptions and depend only upon readily and reliably observed information to demonstrate the framework s broad applicability i analyze two different policies the 2009 cash for clunkers program and states sales tax holidays i estimate that both policies generated substantial deadweight loss jel h21 h30 d91

combining revealed and stated preferences consistency tests and their interpretations this article models the recreation demand for iowa wetlands combining survey data on both actual usage patterns i e revealed preferences rps and anticipated changes to those patterns under hypothetical increases in trip costs i e stated preferences sps we formulate and test specific hypotheses concerning potential sources of bias in each approach and discuss what can be learned about the validity of the models from such tests

environmental policy tax incidence and the cost of public funds this paper studies under what conditions a double dividend may occur in the sense that both environmental quality and employment rise a simple static general equilibrium model is employed in which tax policy faces the dual task of internalising a negative environmental externality and raising revenue to finance public consumption the model features a clearing labour market with both labour demand and supply and a fixed factor of production e g capital hence we can study tax incidence and its effect on employment environmental quality and the marginal cost of public funds it is shown for the case of an upward sloping labour supply curve and less than full tax shifting by employers that a shift towards greener preferences cannot yield a double dividend even if the fixed factor is important however if labour supply curve bends backwards more environmental concern confers a double dividend

on the marginal welfare cost of taxation this paper develops a rigorous partial equilibrium analysis of the determinants of margin al welfare cost mwc of taxes on labor earnings it shows that four key parameters interact to determine the magnitude of mwc using aggregate data and plausible ranges of values for the parameters mwc can vary from under 10 percent to more than 300 percent of marginal tax revenue intermediate parameter values sugge st mwc is in the 25 50 percent range however the more extreme estimates cannot be ruled out on the basis of available evidence suggesting that mwc cannot yet be copyright 1987 by american economic association

does britain or the united states have the right gasoline tax this paper develops an analytical framework to assess the second best optimal level of gasoline taxation taking into account unpriced pollution congestion and accident externalities as well as interactions with the broader fiscal system we provide calculations of the optimal taxes for the us and the uk under a variety of parameter scenarios under our central parameter values the second best optimal gasoline tax is 1 01 gal for the us and 1 34 gal for the uk current tax rates are much lower than this in the us and higher in the uk the calculations are moderately sensitive to alternative parameter assumptions the congestion externality is the largest component in both nations revenue raising needs also play a significant role as do accident externalities and local air pollution potential welfare gains from reducing the current uk tax rate are estimated at nearly one fourth the production cost of all gasoline used in the uk even larger gains could be achieved by switching to a tax on vehicle miles with equal revenue yield for the us the welfare gains from optimizing the gasoline tax are smaller but those from switching to an optimal tax on vehicle miles are very large

developing transport infrastructure for the low carbon society for the uk and other advanced economies the transition to a genuinely low carbon society is a major undertaking within transport changes to vehicle and aircraft technology are likely to be the key drivers of this change underpinned by a more consistent and comprehensive approach to carbon pricing infrastructure investment is likely to be needed to cater for travel growth but this should be on the basis that improvements in carbon efficiency outweigh the upward pressure of growth on emissions a radical shift in the power supply for road transport to support electric vehicles could also have significant infrastructure requirements and there will be potentially significant soft investment requirements associated with improved traffic management travel information systems and road pricing road pricing and an extension of carbon pricing particularly to aviation create income flows which may help to fund transport infrastructure development in a world of constrained public finances

long run gasoline demand for passenger cars the role of income distribution it is commonly agreed that the level of income and prices are crucial determinants of the consumption of motor gasoline the respective long run price and income elasticities are regularly calculated using cross sectional models despite the acknowledgement of the role of income distribution it plays no role in intercountry cross sectional models this is due to a lack of appropriate data this paper shows that the omission of distributional characteristics provides misleading elasticities using available distributional measures this paper is referring to an income threshold which is crucial to the acquisition of an automobile it is shown that on the one hand in poor countries an unequal income distribution is needed to enable at least some people to buy automobiles on the other hand in wealthy countries an unequal income distribution would exclude some people from acquiring automobiles hence depending on the income level inequality has a diverging impact on the ability to buy durable goods the second part of this paper develops a pooled 90 country model to examine this approach empirically it could be shown that distribution variables are highly significant to explain the demand for automobiles and motor gasoline moreover the consideration of the distribution of income leads to a considerable decrease in income elasticity values this is mainly due to the positive correlation between income level and income equality within the sample

market price and income elasticities of new vehicles demand recent evidence from aggregate models of automobile demand indicates that when not corrected for quality differences market price elasticity of demand is substantially biased downwards this note presents new information on market price and income elasticities derived from a disaggregate demand model that controls for cost household income vehicle attributes and perceived quality consumer search and manufacturer based on an extensive household survey of new vehicle purchasers in 1989 market price and income elasticities are estimated to be 0 87 and 1 70 respectively moreover excluding vehicle quality from a well specified model is found to have little effect upon the estimated market elasticities copyright 1996 by mit press

the evans and jovanovic equivalence theorem and credit rationing another look in their well known paper on liquidity constraints evans and jovanovic 1989 argue that under certain assumptions an equivalence relation exists between the probability of switching from wage into self employment and assets of the entrepreneur that is if and only if there are liquidity constraints is the probability of switching a function of the individual s assets the present paper amends this proposition by showing in a simple diagram that if the probability of switching depends on assets then capital constraints are implied in their model but not vice versa this apparently trivial correction is shown to have important implications for empirical work under some circumstances alternative tests need to be employed to establish the existence or otherwise of credit rationing one such test is discussed

the bias due to omitting quality when estimating automobile demand the conclusions of policy oriented market studies often hinge upon the size of an estimated demand elasticity few of the researchers who have estimated such elasticities have utilized a variable designed to measure the subjective concept of quality if quality both significantly affects the demand for a heterogeneous good and is positively correlated with price omitting quality from a demand regression will lead to a downward bias in the estimated price elasticity using levinsohn s 1988 model of the automobile market as a framework this note shows that including quality variables can increase the model s estimated price elasticity by more than 80 percent copyright 1991 by mit press

driving for fun comparing the effect of fuel prices on weekday and weekend fuel consumption abstract focusing on individual motorists in car owning households in germany this paper investigates the determinants of automobile travel with the specific aim of quantifying the effects of fuel prices and person level attributes on travel conducted over a five day week and weekend our analysis is predicated on the notion that car use is an individual decision albeit one that is dependent on intra household allocation processes thereby building on a growing body of literature that has identified the importance of socioeconomic factors such as employment status gender and the presence of children in determining both access to and use of the car to capture this two stage decision process we employ the two part model which consists of probit and ols estimators and derive elasticity estimates that incorporate both the discrete and continuous choices pertaining to car use with fuel price elasticity estimates ranging between 0 45 and 0 50 our results suggest raising prices via fuel taxes to be a promising energy conservation and climate protection measure

revenue raising vs other approaches to environmental protection the critical significance of pre existing tax distortions using analytical and numerical general equilibrium models we show that preexisting factor taxes produce a tax interaction effect that increases the costs of pollution taxes and quotas under policies that raise revenue and recycle it through cuts in marginal factor tax rates this effect is partially offset by a revenue recycling effect grandfathered pollution quotas such as those used under the 1990 clean air act amendments to regulate electric utilities so2 emissions do not benefit from this offset preexisting taxes raise this regulation s cost by over 70 more than half of this additional cost could be avoided by auctioning quotas and exploiting the revenue recycling effect

short and long run elasticities of gasoline demand in india an empirical analysis using cointegration techniques abstract in developing countries like india consumption of petroleum products has implications on its balance of payments economic growth and fiscal deficit gasoline is one of the prime petroleum products in this paper the relationship between gasoline demand national income and price of gasoline is empirically examined using cointegration and error correction techniques the time frame of the analysis is from 1972 1973 to 1993 1994 it has been found that gasoline demand is likely to increase significantly for a given increase in the gross domestic product the increase will be larger in the long run 2 682 than in the short run 1 178 gasoline demand is relatively inelastic to price changes both in the long and short terms the error correction model has shown that gasoline demand adjusts to their respective long run equilibrium at a relatively slow rate with about 28 of adjustment taking place in the first year

oil and international energy this article focuses on issues surrounding international oil markets within the wider context of international energy the global economy and conflicting agendas such as energy security and climate change it is suggested that important aspects of the current situation appear unsustainable increasing uncertainty and raising methodological difficulties for any assessment of likely future developments it is argued that the dynamics of oil prices during the 2002 9 cycle reflected great uncertainty about future fundamentals as well as the absence of previously anticipated stabilizing feedbacks from supply from demand or from policy it is suggested that damaging oil price swings could be moderated by better policy though probably not by financial regulation in the longer term the uncertainties remain very great especially since the tensions between a realist view of likely energy market developments and the imperatives of the climate change agenda remain unresolved a wide range of policies in producer and consumer countries are likely to affect not only oil prices but also the contentious issue of the distribution of rents within the industry copyright 2011 oxford university press

tax interaction effects environmental regulation and rule of thumb adjustments to social cost preexisting distortions in factor markets complicate the estimation of the social welfare effects of regulatory interventions the existence of these tax interaction effects ties suggests that general equilibrium ge approaches should be used to evaluate regulatory policies however formal ge analysis is not always feasible for the numerous environmental regulations proposed by federal state and local agencies the question addressed in this paper is whether an empirically based rule of thumb upward adjustment factor is appropriate to properly scale social cost estimates in environmental policy we argue that such rule of thumb adjustments are significantly less reliable than estimates based on a detailed general equilibrium analysis because of the uncertainty about both the magnitude and sign of the social cost distortion in addition to addressing this question the paper gives an overview of ties and their relevance to environmental policy

nonseparable utility and the double dividend debate reconsidering the tax interaction effect the literature on the use of environmental taxes inthe presence of distortionary labor taxes warns thata partial equilibrium pigouvian tax analysis is notappropriate because increasing the price of dirtygoods can futher aggravate the prexisting distortions this argument is most frequently made assuming thatlabor is taxed to meet a fixed revenue requirement when a dirty good is also taxed others argue thatthis lowers workers real wages causing people toreduce their labor supply below its already suboptimallevel aggravating labor market distortions however most papers ignore the effect that a cleanerenvironment can have on labor supply that is mostpast work has assumed that the quality of theenvironment is weakly separable in the utilityfunction we argue that a cleaner environment canincrease labor supply at least partially offsettingany incentive for workers to decrease their laborsupply further we show explicitly how relaxing theseparability assumption affects the standardresults

explaining cross country productivity differences in retail trade many macroeconomists argue that productivity is low in developing countries because of frictions that impede the adoption of modern technologies i argue that in the retail trade sector developing countries rationally choose technologies with low measured labor productivity my theory is that the adoption of modern retail technologies is optimal only when household ownership of complementary durable goods such as cars is widespread because income is low in the developing world households own few such durables the theory implies that policies that increase measured retail productivity do not necessarily increase welfare

permanent income liquidity and expenditure on automobiles evidence from panel data several recent papers have tested the permanent income cum rational expectations hypothesis using data on nondurable or semidurable consumption we show how this approach can be extended to the case of durables an application to panel data on automobile expenditures reveals no evidence against the permanent income hypothesis this result is unchanged in subsamples segregated by family holdings of liquid assets

economists views about parameters values and policies survey results in labor and public economics specialists in labor economics and public economics at 40 leading research universities provided opinions of policy proposals quantitative best estimates and 95 percent confidence intervals for economic parameters and answers to values questions regarding income redistribution efficiency versus equity and individual versus social responsibility their positions on policy are more closely related to their values than to their estimates of relevant economic parameters average best estimates of the economic parameters agree well with the relevant literature but individual best estimates are usually widely dispersed the individual 95 percent confidence intervals are much narrower than the substantial cross respondent variation in estimates would warrant

optimal environmental taxation in the presence of other taxes general equilibrium analyses this paper examines the optimal setting of environmental taxes in economies where other distortionary taxes are present we employ analytical and numerical models to explore the degree to which in a second best economy optimal environmental tax rates differ from the rates implied by the pigovian principle according to which the optimal tax rate equals the marginal environmental damages both models indicate contrary to what several analysts have suggested that the optimal tax rate on emissions of a given pollutant is generally less than the rate supported by the pigovian principle moreover the optimal rate is lower the larger are the distortions posed by ordinary taxes numerical results indicate that previous studies may have seriously overstated the size of the optimal carbon tax by disregarding pre existing taxes this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

involuntary unemployment and environmental policy the double dividend hypothesis an environmental tax reform might bring about gains over and above improved environmental quality in particular if tax revenues from environmental taxes are used to reduce the tax on wage income positive employment effects can result in second best economies an efficiency wage model is used to analyze the impact of an ecological tax reform on involuntary unemployment the government controls emissions by selling emission permits employment of labor and wages are determined endogenously conditions are identified under which an environmental tax reform reduces unemployment and increases welfare

consumption leisure preference structure a new explanation of the evans jovanovic results for entrepreneurial choice this paper extends evans and jovanovic s 1989 ej model to explicitly consider the latent entrepreneur s consumption leisure preference structure and shows that an increase in his or her assets encourages entrepreneurial activity this result indicates that ej s finding may hold without the assumption of liquidity constraints

agricultural policies in the presence of distorting taxes this article analyzes how distortionary factor taxes affect the welfare impacts of production subsidies production quotas acreage controls subsidies for acreage reductions and cash transfers to farmers pre existing taxes substantially raise the costs of all these policies these additional costs reflect the welfare losses from financing certain policies by distortionary taxes they also reflect interactions with factor markets caused by changes in the costs of producing agricultural output previous studies ignore the latter types of effect consequently they significantly overstate the costs of production subsidies and understate the costs of production quotas acreage controls and subsidies for acreage reductions

are business startups debt rationed using a large random sample of u k start ups and a rich data set the paper demonstrates that human capital is the true determinant of survival and that the correlation between financial capital and survival is spurious provision of finance is demand driven with banks supplying funds elastically and business requests governing take up firms self select for funds on the basis of the human capital endowments of the proprietors with better businesses more likely to borrow a reason why others have seemingly identified start up debt gaps may be the failure to test a sufficiently rich empirical model copyright 1996 by royal economic society

environmental tax interactions when pollution affects health or productivity abstract recent studies indicate that interactions with the tax distorted labor market increase the cost of pollution regulation however these studies make restrictive assumptions regarding preferences and ignore key links between pollution human health and labor productivity together these assumptions imply that pollution does not affect labor supply this paper develops an analytical general equilibrium model that considers several potential benefits from reduced pollution including improved health or productivity it shows that these benefits affect labor supply and thus create a benefit side tax interaction effect that can be of the same magnitude as the familiar cost side interaction when reduced pollution boosts labor productivity the effect substantially magnifies such benefits in contrast when pollution affects consumer health the effect tends to diminish the benefits of reduced pollution the paper considers only environmental regulation but these concepts apply equally to other policies affecting productivity or health such as research subsidies or occupational safety regulations

china s soaring vehicle population even greater than forecasted abstract china s vehicle population is widely forecasted to grow 6 11 per year into the foreseeable future barring aggressive policy intervention or a collapse of the chinese economy we suggest that those forecasts are conservative we analyze the historical vehicle growth patterns of seven of the largest vehicle producing countries at comparable times in their motorization history we estimate vehicle growth rates for this analogous group of countries to have 13 17 per year roughly twice the rate forecasted for china by others applying these higher growth rates to china results in the total vehicle fleet reaching considerably higher volumes than forecasted by others implying far higher global oil use and carbon emissions than projected by the international energy agency and others

automobile externalities and policies this paper discusses the nature and magnitude of externalities associated with automobile use including local and global pollution oil dependence traffic congestion and traffic accidents it then discusses current federal policies affecting these externalities including fuel taxes fuel economy and emissions standards and alternative fuel policies summarizing insofar as possible the welfare effects of those policies finally we discuss emerging pricing policies including congestion tolls and insurance reform and summarize the appropriate combination of policies to address automobile externalities

labor supply and the double dividend abstract a series of recent articles have argued that environmental taxes and cap and trade permit systems generate large distortions in the labor market the claim is made that the higher prices for dirty goods induced by these incentive based systems generate a tax interaction effect leading to reductions in labor supply that are generally on net welfare reducing for this reason it is argued a double dividend seldom exists however price level increases both by lowering family income and by reducing cross spousal wage substitution effects will tend to have offsetting positive impacts on labor supply these effects are large enough to convert negative labor supply responses to rising prices into positive ones the empirical literature also supports a positive relationship between price level increases and labor supply these observations cast doubt on a central critical assumption underlying the critique of the double dividend in the tax interaction effect literature

fuel demand on uk roads and dieselisation of fuel economy abstract because of high oil prices and climate change policy governments are now seeking ways to improve new car fuel economy thus contributing to air quality and energy security one strategy is to increase dieselisation rates of the vehicle fleet recent trends in fuel economy show improvement since 1995 however efforts need to go further if the eu voluntary agreement targets on co 2 a greenhouse gas emission standard are to be achieved trends show diesel car sales have accelerated rapidly and that the advantage of new car fuel economy of diesel cars over gasoline ones is narrowing posing a new challenge we estimate the demand for new car fuel economy in the uk in the long run consumers buy fuel economy but not in the short run we found that long term income and price changes were the main drivers to achieve improvements particularly for diesel cars and that there is no break in the trend of fuel economy induced by the agreement adopted in the 1990s policy should target more closely both consumer choice of and use of diesel cars

adjustment of consumers durables stocks evidence from automobile purchases this paper tests an optimal s s rule in household durable purchases and examines directly the resulting aggregate expenditure dynamics the observed decision rule responds to income uncertainty and growth as predicted by an s s model resulting from transactions costs tests against liquidity constraints find that about half the households purchase according to an optimal s s rule aggregating the s s rule over households produces a cross section distribution of durables holdings the empirical distribution is similar to that predicted theoretically as is its response to aggregate shocks furthermore simulations of aggregate expenditure based on the household distribution exhibit dynamics consistent with those observed in the 1980s

climate change policy why has so little been achieved while the scientific evidence for climate change grows the policy responses have so far had little or no impact on the build up of emissions current trends in emissions are adverse the paper considers why the disconnect between science and policy exists and in particular why the kyoto protocol has achieved so little some contributing factors considered are the focus on carbon production rather than consumption in the architecture of kyoto the flaws in the analysis presented in the stern report notably on the impacts of climate change on economic growth on the costs of mitigation and on discounting and the political economy of the choice of policy instruments the politics of the rents that arise and the technology bias the challenges facing the copenhagen conference are noted and it is concluded that with a recasting of the economics of climate change the prospects for closing the gap between the science and policy are grim

social comparisons status and driving behavior abstract the establishment of desirable social norms is an integral part of a well functioning civil society while recent evidence has demonstrated that social comparison can affect behavior in a variety of contexts it is not clear what type of comparative social information is most effective using a large scale field experiment to study driving practices we sent text messages containing different types of social information to drivers in tsingtao china we find two types of social information to be particularly effective in reducing traffic violations the driving behavior of those similar to oneself and the driving behavior of those with high status cars our results indicate that the combination of descriptive norms with social status is a cost effective yet powerful intervention for establishing better driving behavior in emerging markets

traffic fatalities does income inequality create an externality responsible for 20 million severe injuries and or deaths annually few epidemics receive less attention than traffic accidents going beyond confirming an inverted u shaped relationship between mean income and fatalities we show theoretically that income inequality can positively affect fatalities in two ways each operates through heterogeneity between road users and while the direct effect can be expected to evaporate with rising income the indirect effect may prove to be an externality in that the relationship remains regardless of the level of income our model is supported by evidence from 79 countries between 1970 and 2000 les graves accidents de la route font plus de 20 millions de blesses graves et ou de morts chaque annee peu d epidemies aussi graves recoivent aussi peu d attention tentant d aller plus loin que de confirmer la relation en u inverse entre revenu moyen et accidents on montre theoriquement que l inegalite de revenus peut affecter les accidents graves d une maniere positive et ce de deux facons chacune des facons opere via l heterogeneite des utilisateurs de la route alors qu on peut esperer que l effet direct va disparaitre avec la croissance des revenus l effet indirect peut etre le fait d un effet externe qui reste en place quel que soit le niveau de revenu le modele est valide par des donnees pour 79 pays entre 1970 et 2000

revisiting the cost of protectionism abstract most studies of the welfare impacts of trade policy have ignored interactions between these policies and pre existing distortions from the income tax this paper demonstrates that when these interactions are taken into account the potential gains or losses from tariffs import quotas or voluntary export restrictions are significantly magnified however as long as the trade barrier doesn t generate rents for domestic households the optimal level of the trade barrier is unchanged from the first best case trade policies which do increase domestic rents either in the form of quota rents or rents to fixed factors in production suffer an additional efficiency cost and the optimal policy in this case is less strict than in the first best case

distributional effects of alternative vehicle pollution control policies abstract previous work shows that policies that subsidize new vehicles and tax size miles or gasoline efficiently reduce pollution less is known about their distributional effects this paper examines distributional effects by estimating the joint demand for vehicles and miles using the consumer expenditure survey greater price responsiveness among low income households enhances progressivity of gas or miles taxes across lower incomes and mitigates regressivity across upper incomes taxes on engine size or subsidies to new vehicles are significantly more regressive than gas or miles taxes