credit spreads an empirical analysis on the informational content of stocks bonds and cds this paper explores the dynamic relationship between stock market implied credit spreads cds spreads and bond spreads a general vecm representation is proposed for changes in the three credit spread measures which accounts for zero one or two independent cointegration equations depending on the evidence provided by any particular company empirical analysis on price discovery based on a proprietary sample of north american and european firms and tailored to the specific vecm at hand indicates that stocks lead cds and bonds more frequently than the other way round it likewise confirms the leading role of cds with respect to bonds

cojumping evidence from the us treasury bond and futures markets the basis between spot and future prices will be affected by jump behavior in each asset price challenging intraday hedging strategies using formal cojumping tests this paper considers the cojumping behavior of spot and futures prices in high frequency us treasury data cojumping occurs most frequently at shorter maturities and higher sampling frequencies we find that the probability of cojumping is altered by the presence of an anticipated macroeconomic news announcement the probability of cojumping is particularly affected by news surprises in non farm payrolls cpi gdp and retail sales however the two cojumping tests are also more likely to provide contradictory results in the presence of surprises in non farm payrolls on these occasions the market does not clearly signal its short term pricing behavior

jumps cojumps and macro announcements we use recently proposed tests to extract jumps and cojumps from three types of assets stock index futures bond futures and exchange rates we then characterize the dynamics of these discontinuities and informally relate them to us macroeconomic releases before using limited dependent variable models to formally model how news surprises explain co jumps nonfarm payroll and federal funds target announcements are the most important news across asset classes trade balance shocks are important for foreign exchange jumps we relate the size frequency and timing of jumps across asset classes to the likely sources of shocks and the relation of asset prices to fundamentals in the respective classes

information shocks liquidity shocks jumps and price discovery evidence from the u s treasury market in this paper we identify jumps in u s treasury bond t bond prices and investigate what causes such unexpected large price changes in particular we examine the relative importance of macroeconomic news announcements versus variation in market liquidity in explaining the observed jumps in the u s treasury market we show that while jumps occur mostly at prescheduled macroeconomic announcement times announcement surprises have limited power in explaining bond price jumps our analysis further shows that preannouncement liquidity shocks such as changes in the bid ask spread and market depth have significant predictive power for jumps the predictive power is significant even after controlling for information shocks finally we present evidence that post jump order flow is less informative relative to the case where there is no jump at announcement

the effect of asymmetries on optimal hedge ratios there is widespread evidence that the volatility of stock returns displays an asymmetric response to good and bad news this article considers the impact of asymmetry on time varying hedges for financial futures an asymmetric model that allows forecasts of cash and futures return volatility to respond differently to positive and negative return innovations gives superior in sample hedging performance however the simpler symmetric model is not inferior in a hold out sample a method for evaluating the models in a modern risk management framework is presented highlighting the importance of allowing optimal hedge ratios to be both time varying and asymmetric

roughing it up including jump components in the measurement modeling and forecasting of return volatility a rapidly growing literature has documented important improvements in financial return volatility measurement and forecasting via use of realized variation measures constructed from high frequency returns coupled with simple modeling procedures building on recent theoretical results in barndorff nielsen and shephard 2004a 2005 for related bi power variation measures the present paper provides a practical and robust framework for non parametrically measuring the jump component in asset return volatility in an application to the dm exchange rate the s p500 market index and the 30 year u s treasury bond yield we find that jumps are both highly prevalent and distinctly less persistent than the continuous sample path variation process moreover many jumps appear directly associated with specific macroeconomic news announcements separating jump from non jump movements in a simple but sophisticated volatility forecasting model we find that almost all of the predictability in daily weekly and monthly return volatilities comes from the non jump component our results thus set the stage for a number of interesting future econometric developments and important financial applications by separately modeling forecasting and pricing the continuous and jump components of the total return variation process

harmful competition in insurance markets there is a general presumption that competition is a good thing in this paper we show that competition in the insurance markets can be bad and that adverse selection is in general worse under competition than under monopoly the reason is that monopoly can exploit its market power to relax incentive constraints by cross subsidization between different risk types cream skimming behavior on the contrary prevents competitive firms from using implicit transfers in effect monopoly is shown to provide better coverage to those buying insurance but at the cost of limiting participation to insurance performing simulation for different distributions of risk we find that monopoly in general performs much better than competition in terms of the realization of the gains from trade across all traders in equilibrium

the politics of redistributive social insurance this paper analyses the political support for a social insurance that includes elements of redistribution when there exists an imperfect private insurance alternative individuals differ both in their income and risk the social insurance is compulsory and charges an income related contribution with pooling of risks the private insurance is voluntary and charges a contribution based on individual risks however due to the adverse selection problem private insurance companies provide only partial insurance adopting a non expected utility model we show that there is a general majority support for social insurance and that this support is increasing with risk aversion we also show that a mixed insurance is politically impossible regardless of the degree of redistribution of social insurance and the joint distribution of risk and income in the population lastly we analyse how the political support for social insurance is affected by any change in its redistributive component and the possibility of using genetic tests

news announcements and price discovery in foreign exchange spot and futures markets abstract this paper studies competition in price discovery between spot and futures rates for the eur usd and jpy usd markets around scheduled macroeconomic announcements using both the information shares approach and the common factor component weight approach for futures prices from the chicago mercantile exchange cme as well as deal prices from spot trading on the electronic broking services ebs we gauge how foreign exchange spot and futures markets respond to news surprises the results show that the spot rates provide more price discovery than do the cme futures rates overall however the contribution of the futures rates to price discovery increases in the time surrounding macroeconomic announcement releases

competition with hidden knowledge in markets where product quality is diffuse and verification by buyers is sufficiently costly high quality sellers have an incentive to signal to buyers by investing in some activity that is more costly for low quality sellers unfortunately with competition among buyers over the price paid for each level of the signal there is in general no nash equilibrium however it is sufficient for equilibrium that i low quality sellers would under symmetric information choose not to enter the market and ii the rate at which the marginal cost of signaling declines across types is sufficiently large

airport pricing congestion tolls lumpy investment and cost recovery abstract in this paper we investigate the relationship between congestion tolls and capacity expansion costs for congestion prone transportation infrastructures with lumpy investment with constant variable costs and social marginal cost pricing this relationship determines the cost recovery status of an infrastructure authority the theoretical model for optimal user charges and the timing of capacity expansion shows that the relative magnitudes of total congestion tolls and total capacity costs in an investment cycle depend on the time pattern of traffic growth a point overlooked in the literature a queuing model is used to conduct a numerical experiment to determine the cost recovery ratios under various time paths of traffic growth

good bad cojumps and volatility forecasting new evidence from crude oil and the u s stock markets abstract in this article we investigate the impacts of jumps cojumps and their signed components on forecasting oil futures price volatility in the framework of the heterogeneous autoregressive realized volatility model our empirical results reveal several noteworthy findings first the effects of signed jumps and cojumps based on the daily and intraday jump tests on future volatility are asymmetric and the negative components are much more powerful in forecasting volatility moreover our proposed models including the signed jump and cojump components are able to generate higher forecasting accuracy and we find that disentangling the effects of positive and negative jumps and cojumps can significantly improve forecasts of future volatility lastly our findings are reliable for various robustness checks and our study provides some new insights into forecasting oil price realized volatility which are useful for researchers market participants and policymakers

health economics worldwide i issues in health insurance 1 pricing and imperfections in the medical care market place 2 how can we prevent cream skimming in a competitive health insurance market the great challenge for the 90s 3 the impact of utilization review on costs and utilization 4 the normative and positive economics of minimum health benefits ii criteria for allocating health care resources 1 cost effectiveness analysis of strategies for screening prostatic cancer 2 the validity of the mimic health index some empirical evidence 3 welfare economics and cost utility analysis iii administrative and market allocation in health care 1 excess demand and patient selection for heart and liver transplantation 2 non price allocative procedures scottish solutions to a national health service problem 3 priorities among waiting list patients 4 consumer information price and nonprice competition among hospitals iv health care in the political arena 1 cost containment in health care justification and consequences 2 political economy of hospital financing 3 a pooled cross sectional analysis of the health care expenditure of the oecd countries 4 is there a sisyphus syndrome in health care 5 deaths from gastrointestinal cancer in mexico probable cause for water sampling index of names index of subjects

incentive compatibility in signaling games with a continuum of types on donne deux resultats utiles pour demontrer l existence et pour caracteriser des equilibres de separation dans des jeux de signalement

market equilibrium with hidden knowledge and self selection the problem of the existence of a competitive equilibrium in models with hidden knowledge and self knowledge has been discussed previously by m rothschild and j e stiglitz 1976 c a wilson 1977 and j g riley 1979 recent analyses of such models by i cho and d kreps 1986 and riley argue for a particular outcome the pareto dominant separating zero profit one the authors prove the existence of such an outcome under very general conditions and generalizing the reactive equilibrium concept introduced by riley they prove this outcome is the unique reactive equilibrium copyright 1987 by the econometric society

political sustainability and the design of social insurance this paper examines how the issue of political support affects the design of social insurance it distinguishes between redistributive character and size of social protection three main results emerge first it may be appropriate to adopt a system which is less redistributive than otherwise optimal in order to ensure political support for an adequate level of coverage in the second voting stage second supplementary private insurance may increase the welfare of the poor even if it is effectively bought only by the rich third the case for prohibiting supplementary private insurance may become stronger when the efficiency of private insurance markets increases

continuous time models realized volatilities and testable distributional implications for daily stock returns we provide an empirical framework for assessing the distributional properties of daily speculative returns within the context of the continuous time jump diffusion models traditionally used in asset pricing finance our approach builds directly on recently developed realized variation measures and non parametric jump detection statistics constructed from high frequency intra day data a sequence of simple to implement moment based tests involving various transformations of the daily returns speak directly to the importance of different distributional features and may serve as useful diagnostic tools in the specification of empirically more realistic continuous time asset pricing models on applying the tests to the 30 individual stocks in the dow jones industrial average index we find that it is important to allow for both time varying diffusive volatility jumps and leverage effects to satisfactorily describe the daily stock price dynamics copyright 2009 john wiley sons ltd

regime switching correlation hedging this paper investigates the hedging effectiveness of commodity futures when the correlations of spot and futures returns are subject to multi state regime shifts an independent switching dynamic conditional correlation garch is dcc which is free from the problems of path dependency and recombining is applied to model multi regime switching correlations the results of hedging exercises indicate that state dependent is dcc outperforms state independent dcc garch and three state is dcc exhibits superior hedging effectiveness illustrating importance of modeling higher state switching correlations for dynamic futures hedging

inequality social insurance and redistribution is the political support for welfare policy higher or lower in less egalitarian societies we answer the question using a model of welfare policy as publicly financed insurance that pays benefits in a redistributive manner when voters have both redistributive and insurance motives for supporting welfare spending the effect of inequality depends on how benefits are targeted greater inequality increases support for welfare expenditures when benefits are targeted to the employed but decreases support when benefits are targeted to those without earnings with endogenous targeting support for benefits to those without earnings declines as inequality increases whereas support for aggregate spending is a v shaped function of inequality statistical analysis of welfare expenditures in advanced industrial societies provides support for key empirical implications of the model

some recent developments in futures hedging the use of futures contracts as a hedging instrument has been the focus of much research at the theoretical level an optimal hedge strategy is traditionally based on the expected utility maximization paradigm a simplification of this paradigm leads to the minimum variance criterion although this paradigm is quite well accepted alternative approaches have been sought at the empirical level research on futures hedging has benefited from the recent developments in the econometrics literature much research has been done on improving the estimation of the optimal hedge ratio as more is known about the statistical properties of financial time series more sophisticated estimation methods are proposed in this survey we review some recent developments in futures hedging we delineate the theoretical underpinning of various methods and discuss the econometric implementation of the methods

uncertain lifetimes and the welfare enhancing properties of annuity markets and social security this paper explores the implications of social security programs and annuity markets through which agents who are characterized by different distributions of length of lifetime share deathrelated risks when annuity markets operate a non discriminatory social security program affects only the intragenerational allocation of resources in the absence of private information regarding individual survival probabilities such a program will lead to a non optimal intragenerational allocation of resources however the presence of adverse selection considerations gives rise to a pareto improving role for a mandatory non discriminatory social security program

the economic effects of non optimal pricing and investment policies for substitutable transport facilities a dynamic simulation model of subbstitutable transportation facilities demonstrated the welfare revenue and capacity implications of various non optimal pricing and investment policies applications to a major airport and an urban transportation system an expressway and a subway showed that in both cases the welfare surface surrounding the optimal policy is relatively flat for a substantial range and that existing policies are also on this range for both transportation systems a policy of financial self sufficiency is on this range for the airport but not for the urban transportation system author

public health insurance and optimal income taxation abstract if individuals differ not only in their inherent capacity to earn income but also in the probability that they will fall ill can subsidized public health insurance be justified on the grounds that it serves as an efficient tool to redistribute welfare this question is analyzed in a model where the social welfare function is a weighted average of individual expected utilities and where taxation is by a linear income tax the answer is yes except in certain special cases

optimal social health insurance with supplementary private insurance abstract this paper investigates the structure of a national health service in which there is compulsory social insurance covering a package of essentials a given part of individuals health expenditure and supplementary private policy topping up the remaining services the latter insurance contract provides for a co payment by patients limiting the so called third party payer effect thus an individual s health expenditure is divided into three parts the first covered by social insurance the second by a private policy and the third out of pocket such mixed system design has received increasing attention in recent years and has been adopted by several industrialized countries the conditions for optimal rates of social insurance coverage and of private coinsurance are analysed and discussed the optimality requirements refer to efficiency as well as equity concerns

majority rule and the public provision of a private good this paper extends the literature on the socialization of commodities by developing a model of voting over the public provision of a private good health care

public provision of private goods government may provide a good that can if legally permitted be supplemented by private purchases policy is determined by majority rule under standard assumptions on preferences a majority voting equilibrium exists a regime of positive government provision with no restriction on private supplements is shown to be majority preferred to a regime of either only market provision or only government provision combined public and private expenditure on the good is higher under this dual provision regime than under either of the alternatives under some preference configurations the median income voter is pivotal under others a voter with income below the median is pivotal

information shares in the us treasury market abstract this paper highlights the previously neglected role of the futures markets in us treasury price discovery the estimates of 5 and 10 year govpx spot market information shares typically fail to reach 50 from 1999 on the govpx information shares for the 2 year contract are higher than those of the 5 and 10 year maturities but also decline after 1998 relative bid ask spreads number of trades and realized volatility are statistically significant and explain up to 21 of daily information shares in roughly 1 4 of cases when public information is released the futures market gains information share but macroeconomic announcements rarely explain information shares independently of liquidity

voluntary public health insurance we look at the consequences of allowing public health insurance puhi to be voluntary when its coverage can be supplemented in the market puhi redistributes with respect to risk and income and the market is affected by adverse selection we argue that making puhi voluntary does not lead to its collapse since individuals always participate in it additionally in some cases a voluntary puhi scheme increases market efficiency because participation in it sends a signal to private insurers of an individual s health risk type the welfare consequences depend on the status quo if in the status quo no political support exists for a compulsory puhi making it voluntary constitutes a pareto improvement and in some cases all individuals are strictly better off if instead the status quo implements compulsory puhi making it voluntary then results in less redistribution

equity in the finance of health care some further international comparisons this paper presents further international comparisons of progressivity of health care financing systems the paper builds on the work of wagstaff et al wagstaff a van doorslaer e et al 1992 equity in the finance of health care some international comparisons journal of health economics 11 pp 361 387 but extends it in a number of directions we modify the methodology used there and achieve a higher degree of cross country comparability in variable definitions we update and extend the cross section of countries and we present evidence on trends in financing mixes and progressivity

jumps in financial markets a new nonparametric test and jump dynamics this paper introduces a new nonparametric test to detect jump arrival times and realized jump sizes in asset prices up to the intra day level we demonstrate that the likelihood of misclassiflcation of jumps becomes negligible when we use high frequency returns using our test we examine jump dynamics and their distributions in the u s equity markets the results show that individual stock jumps are associated with prescheduled earnings announcements and other company speciflc news events additionally s p 500 index jumps are associated with general market news announcements this suggests difierent pricing models for individual equity options versus index op

alternative systems of health care provision health care timothy besley and miguel gouveia rising costs of health care provision throughout the world have provoked a vigorous debate about the design of health care systems and the role of government in health care in countries that have predominantly social provision there are moves towards privatization and direct attempts to regulate prices in more market oriented systems rising costs seem to be resulting in a greater uninsured problem and this too is provoking demands for reform technological change will put constant pressure on health care systems public or private generating serious social choice problems however this must be seen in the context of a traditional commitment to providing a non trivial minimum level of health care to all members of society we discuss evidence from oecd countries from 1960 to 1990 then focus on more recent changes the central problems of market oriented systems are cost containment and the fact that significant segments of the population go uninsured most oecd countries have therefore chosen solutions where health care financing is socialized we present a simple political economy model to describe the conditions under which this will arise the hallmark of public provision is relative uniformity in access to health care this creates incentives for individuals to opt out of the public sector and to supplement what they can obtain through the state in addition it creates a significant commitment to redistribution through public provision rising costs strain the generosity of taxpayers we expect to see increased reliance on market solutions and moves towards multi tiered health systems that differentiate health care provisions made for different groups in society