evaluating natural resource investments notwithstanding impressive advances in the theory of finance over the past 2 decades practical procedures for capital budgeting have evolved only slowly the standard technique which has remained unchanged in essentials since it was originally proposed see dean 1951 bierman and smidt 1960 derives from a simple adaptation of the fisher 1907 model of valuation under certainty under this technique expected cash flows from an investment project are discounted at a rate deemed appropriate to their risk and the resulting present value is compared with the cost of the project this standard textbook technique reflects modern theoretical developments only insofar as estimates of the discount rate may be obtained from crude application of single period asset pricing theory but see brennan 1973 bogue and roll 1974 turnbull 1977 constantinides 1978 the inadequacy of this approach to capital budgeting is widely acknowledged although not widely discussed its obvious deficiency is its the evaluation of mining and other natural resource projects is made particularly difficult by the high degree of uncertainty attaching to output prices it is shown that the techniques of continuous time arbitrage and stochastic control theory may be used not only to value such projects but also to determine the optimal policies for developing managing and abandoning them the approach may be adapted to a wide variety of contexts outside the natural resource sector where uncertainty about future project revenues is a paramount concern

foreign direct investment and investment under uncertainty we show that in uncertain environments ownership and internalization advantages may be negatively rather than positively associated with fdi this reversal from extant theory occurs because ownership advantages often serve to make fdi delayable while internalization advantages often serve to make it less reversible when fdi becomes either more delayable or less reversible it is less likely to occur at a point in time our approach enriches the who where and why explanations offered by current fdi theory to incorporate the question of when

choice of foreign market entry mode impact of ownership location and internalization factors firms interested in servicing foreign markets face a difficult decision with regards to the choice of an entry mode the options available to a firm include exporting licensing joint venture and sole venture several factors that determine the choice of a specific foreign market entry mode have been identified in previous literature these factors can be classified into three categories ownership advantages of a firm location advantages of a market and internalization advantages of integrating transactions this study examines the independent and joint influences of these factors on the choice of an entry mode multinomial logistic regression model is employed to test the hypothesized effects

timing of entry in international market an empirical study of u s fortune 500 firms in china this study attempts to explain the timing of entry of firms in international markets based on the existing literature we propose a framework that consists of firm specific factors industry market factors and host country factors empirical results based on the entry information of u s fortune 500 firms in china between 1979 and 1996 show that larger firms with greater level of internalization and scope economies are likely to enter this foreign market earlier in addition non equity modes competitors behavior in the product market and lower levels of country risk are significantly associated with early entry

budget deficits and the current account an intertemporal disequilibrium approach the objective of the present paper is to develop an intertemporal disequilibrium model of a monetary economy to explain the effects of fiscal policy on the current account we wish to emphasize the role of aggregate demand determined output fluctuations and flexible exchange rates within a microtheoretic optimizing framework furthermore the differing effects of monetary versus non monetary i e tax or bond finance of government expenditures are considered

global strategy and multinationals entry mode choice this paper makes a case directed towards establishing the importance of global strategic considerations in choosing multinationals entry mode specifically it is our contention that beyond the environmental and transaction specific factors well established in the literature to affect the entry mode decision we should also consider the strategic relationship a multinational envisages between its operations across borders in reaching this decision after incorporating various global strategic variables into an eclectic framework of the factors influencing the entry mode choice this paper tests both the validity of the overall framework and the importance of each entry mode determinant in differ entiating among entry modes this is done based on ninety six multinational managers responses to a survey questionnaire concerning their entry mode decision experiences the results suggest that an express incorporation of global strategic variables into an analysis of the entry mode decision is warranted

the eclectic paradigm of international production a restatement and some possible extensions this article reviews some of the criticisms directed towards the eclectic paradigm of international production over the past decade and restates its main tenets the second part of the article considers a number of possible extensions of the paradigm and concludes by asserting that it remains a robust general framework for explaining and analysing not only the economic rationale of economic production but many organisational and impact issues in relation to mne activity as well

the optimal timing of a foreign direct investment analyses of the optimal timing of foreign direct investment fdi decisions have been curiously lacking in the general literature on multinational enterprises cf buckley 1979a b although comparative static analyses exist comparing exporting to the host country with market servicing from a production unit sited in the host country horst 1971 hirsh 1976 the only attempt to predict the timing of the switch from exporting to foreign based production is that of aliber 1970 although vernon 1966 gives a cost based rationale for the switch this chapter attempts to fill this gap in the theory of fdi section 2 1 outlines and criticises previous attempts to deal with the problem sections 2 2 4 present a simple model which ignores set up costs and sections 2 5 and 2 6 give a more detailed analysis including such costs further extensions of the theory are considered in section 2 7 and the conclusions are summarised in section 2 8 the problem emerges as being more complex than had previously been appreciated

real options theory in international business the last quarter century has witnessed substantial growth in applications of real options theory rot to international business ib research in this review we explicate the core rot concepts in the ib context and discuss the contributions of rot based research to three core ib issues timing and scale of market entry or exit entry mode and governance form and the role of multinational networks based on our review we propose a holistic rot view of the multinational enterprise that synthesizes the insights of existing studies finally to move the field forward we highlight key questions and challenges in current rot based work provide a more precise definition of exogenous and endogenous uncertainty suggest empirical designs to test unique rot predictions and explore areas where rot can be combined with other theoretical perspectives to better understand ib phenomena

optimal sequential investment when capital is not readily reversible when investment opportunities arrive one at a time and are reviewed sequentially a corporation s optimal policy differs from a standard net present value rule if the corporation exercises control over an industry state variable and control is costly the first condition presupposes a degree of market power for the firm the second occurs if corporate investment decisions are imperfectly reversible to address the problem of optimal investment in this context a firm s investment decisions are modeled as a markov reward process the causes of economic irreversibility are discussed and general propositions concerning the optimal investment policy are derived these propositions are then applied to the optimization of an exploration program by an oligopolistic firm a price leader under particular demand and distributional assumptions solutions for the optimal decision rule and the value of the exploration program are obtained and their properties examined current investment may affect future opportunities by creating growth opportunities as defined by myers 16 see also spence 25 or by reducing the value of an existing opportunity set despite the known potential for these interactions capital budgeting techniques such as net present valuation scenario planning and monte carlo simulation focus exclusively on the stand alone value of an investment the capacity for modeling interactions is present in the multiperiod models of merton 16 bogue and roll 5 and others the absence of applications however is evidence that actual economic interactions between current and future opportunities are not well understood this paper develops a model of a firm facing a sequence of interdependent growth opportunities opportunities have positive net present values because the firm exercises market power in its product market current investment changes the value of future opportunities through its effect on a product market variable the model is used to examine the impact of demand industry structure and technology on optimal investment rules and on the value of aggregate growth

timing of investment and international expansion performance in china this study examines the multivariate and univariate performance effects of timing of fdi in an emerging economy at the business unit level a longitudinal analysis of industry wide firm specific data on fdi timing and foreign venture performance in china reveals that timing has a significant influence on overall as well as on individual aspects of venture performance it is observed that early entrants outperform late movers in terms of local market expansion and asset turnover whereas late movers are superior to early entrants with regard to risk reduction and accounting return during the initial period of international expansion factor analysis confirms that the importance of timing in affecting fdi decisions is as significant as that of internalization ownership or location factors

a critical assessment of the eclectic theory of the multinational enterprise the paper critically deals with the electric theory of the multinational enterprise it examines firstly the theoretical redundancy of the ownership advantage secondly the inseparability of the ownership advantage from the location advantage thirdly the conceptual ambiguity of the location advantage and lastly possible methodological dangers of a multi factor analysis under the three headings of the eclectic theory

firm ownership preferences and host government restrictions an integrated approach two approaches may explain how multinational enterprises mnes select ownership structures for subsidiaries the first argues that mnes prefer structures that minimize that transaction costs of doing business abroad the second argues that ownership structures are determined by negotiations with host governments whose outcomes depend on the bargaining power of the firm this paper presents a framework integrating these two approaches and uses statistical methods to separate their effects empirically

foreign investor reactions to risk and uncertainty in antitrust u s merger policy investigations and the deterrence of foreign acquirer presence motivated by the potential for antitrust and competition policies to be protectionist in effect we formulate the theoretical prior that merger policy deters foreign acquirer participation in local m a markets the policy risk and policy uncertainty characteristic of merger review may negatively affect foreign acquirers more so than domestic acquirers thereby disadvantaging foreign acquisitions of local firms and deterring future cross border investment activities we test this prior by employing sector level data on u s merger policy investigations and foreign acquirer presence in u s m a markets over the 2002 2017 period our panel data methodological approach indicates that the risk and uncertainty characteristic of u s merger policy disproportionately deters the acquisition activities of foreign investors the empirical results also suggest that the application of competition and merger policies in other national jurisdictions where there is less of a strong commitment to antitrust principles might also be effectively protectionist

international expansion of telecommunication carriers the influence of market structure network characteristics and entry imperfections this paper examines the internationalization process of telecommunication carriers in this industry early entrants gain substantial first mover advantages due to the transient nature of the windows of market opportunity and the potential to influence the regulatory process as an incumbent to capture these strategic and economic advantages firms follow a strategy of preemption both of markets and partners the authors argue for the need to augment prevailing theory with contextual idiosyncrasies that characterize specific industries

models of the multinational enterprise flexibility is identified as the hallmark of recent modelling of the multinational enterprise the focus on flexibility is a response to the rationalization and restructuring of international business which has occurred since the end of the golden age of western economic growth flexibility has been south in factor markets intermediate product markets and markets for final products it has been sought by both governments and firms flexible firms are attracted to locations with flexible host governments this article contrasts the modern research agenda based on flexibility with the more traditional research agenda which predominates in the literature reviewed by caves 1996

financial performance and survival of multinational corporations in china this study investigates the impact of entry timing mode of entry market focus and location advantages on the financial performance and survival of multinational corporations mncs in china three major results were found first mncs that entered china in an earlier year had a higher level of profit than those that entered in a later year second equity joint ventures ejvs had a higher profit level than cooperative operations or wholly foreign owned subsidiaries third mncs that utilized well the location advantages in china had a higher profit we also found that ejvs were more likely to survive compared to cooperative operations while wholly owned subsidiaries did not differ from ejvs the findings are based on a 2 year study of about 1000 mnc operations in china copyright 1999 john wiley sons ltd

dodging bullets the heterogeneous effect of political violence on greenfield fdi the relationship between political violence and greenfield foreign direct investment is contingent on the type of violence characteristics of the investment receiving sector and extent to which the investing firm is geographically diversified this paper presents an analysis with a dynamic fixed effects model for a panel of 90 developing countries from 2003 to 2012 the analysis shows that nationwide political conflict is negatively associated with total and non resource related greenfield foreign direct investment but not with resource related greenfield foreign direct investment the insensitivity to political conflict of multinational firms in the resource sector is associated with the high profitability of natural resource extraction and the companies geographic constraints on location choice during the period of estimation in the non resource sector the less geographically diversified firms are most sensitive to the risk of conflict

licensing duration in foreign markets a real options perspective licensing can be considered an initial trial of a foreign market before a firm fully commits to it through other investment modes the length of trial has great importance because licensing duration represents part of the licensing agreement when it is too short the firm may not acquire the necessary experience and knowledge of the foreign market but if it is too long the firm misses optimal expansion timing arguing that licensing can be considered as a european style real option with a fixed holding period we develop and test a model of the determinants of licensing duration in foreign markets empirical results based on a sample of firms in various countries show that uncertainty and threat of competitive pre emption in the foreign market are related to shorter duration of the technology licensing agreements we also find that irreversibility of the impending investment moderates the relationships between uncertainty and duration specifically market and technology uncertainties in the foreign market induce shorter contracts under low levels of irreversibility

the drivers of foreign direct investment into research and development an empirical investigation this paper examines the determinants of foreign direct investment fdi in research and development laboratories by 32 multinational enterprises in the pharmaceutical and electronics industries the paper applies a dichotomous set of motives for fdi results from an econometric analysis of 136 laboratory investments show that relative market size and relative strength of a country s science base determine whether fdi in research and development is carried out in order to exploit existing firm specific advantages or in order to build up new firm specific advantages this holds true in similar form for japanese european and u s firms and across the two industries

the influence of hymer s dissertation on the theory of foreign derect investment the great contribution of stephen hymer s seminal dissertation 1960 was to escape from the intellectual straightjacket of neoclassical type trade and financial theory and move us towards an analysis of the multinational enterprise mne based upon industrial organization theory the magnitude of this breakthrough can be put into perspective by considering the state of the art when hymer wrote twenty five years ago in 1960 the prevailing explanation of international capital movements relied exclusively upon a neoclassical financial theory of portfolio flows in this frictionless world of perfect competition with no transaction costs capital moves in response to changes in interest rate or profit differentials see carl iversen 1936 according to this arbitrage theory capital is assumed to be transacted between independent buyers and sellers that is there is no role for the mne at the time there was no separate theory of foreign direct investment fdi the work did not even ask the question of why is there fdi despite the evidence of sectoral cross investments and the existence of large mnes with intra industry trade if anything the early work on fdi focused upon the where of investment in a particular nation or industry for example dunning 1958 was chiefly interested in explaining u s fdi in britain there was little interest in understanding the reasons for the mne or the nature of its operations the pioneering conceptual insight of hymer was to break out of the arid mold of international trade and investment theory and focus attention upon the mne per se this permits us to treat fdi as a modality by which firms extend their territorial horizons abroad the unique feature of fdi is a mechanism by which the mne maintains control over productive activities outside its national boundaries that is fdi means international production in this view fdi is more than a process by which assets or claims are exchanged internationally see robert aliber 1970 1983 hymer s great insight was in focusing attention upon the mne as the institution for international production rather than international exchange until hymer articulated the process of fdi as an international extension of industrial organization theory it was not possible to understand why the mne transfers intermediate products such as knowledge or technology among its units across different nations while still retaining property rights over such assets today it is widely recognized that the theory of fdi i e international production is primarily about the transfer of nonfinancial and ownershipspecific intangible assets by the mne which needs to appropriate and control the rate of use of its internalized advantage s see rugman 1981 david teece 1981 1982 richard caves 1982 and mark casson 1983 in this paper we first acknowledge hymer s contribution to the theory of fdi and then move on to reinterpret his dissertation in the light of the modern theory of the mne we tdiscussants raymond vernon harvard university robert z aliber university of chicago paul streeten boston university

multinational enterprise internal governance and industrial organization abstractthe following sections are included monopoly vs efficiency interpretations of the multinational enterprisehost country controlsdynamic considerationsconclusionreferences this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

price level targeting and stabilization policy we construct a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to study optimal monetary stabilization policy prices are fully flexible and money is essential for trade our main result is that if the central bank pursues a price level target it can control inflation expectations and improve welfare by stabilizing short run shocks to the economy the optimal policy involves smoothing nominal interest rates that effectively smooths consumption across states

the timing and probability of fdi an application to us multinational enterprises an option pricing model is employed to analyse the timing of fdi assuming that the firm s profits are determined by the attractiveness of both the home and foreign countries and that attractiveness follows a brownian motion an optimal trigger value of fdi is derived the model shows that contrary to the npv rule fdi entry should be delayed the greater the uncertainty of attractiveness in both locations another important result is that mnes do not regard fdi as a risk diversification tool the results of the model were then tested empirically with us fdi data using labour costs as a proxy for the reciprocal of attractiveness the results support the findings of the analytical model

problems and developments in the core theory of international business the established theory of international business is not without problems it is necessary to specify the key relationships between internalisation and market structure and between internalisation and competitive advantage more carefully this chapter attempts to clarify the former relationship by reference to the work of hymer and the latter by contrasting the nature of internalisation decisions with those building short run competitive advantage avenues of development of the theory include the integration of non traditional concepts and the reintegration of areas of research which have become divorced from core international business theory