quick job entry or long term human capital development the dynamic effects of alternative training schemes this study evaluates and compares the eectiveness of two alternative training schemes for the unemployed short job search oriented training and long human capital oriented training we investigate the impact dynamics of these pro grams considering both unemployment and employment duration our analysis uses a rich administrative longitudinal data set for germany where both programs were implemented at the same time our estimation strategy flexibly accounts for dy namic selection on observables and unobservables as well as heterogeneous treatment eects the results indicate that short term training schemes can be an eective tool to reduce unemployment in the long run in particular if participation occurs early during unemployment long term training schemes increase the average du ration of employment spells more strongly than short term training however they increase the expected unemployment duration if they are started early during un employment this negative short run impact of long term training is an important driver of its overall eectiveness

the school to work transition a cross national perspective school to work patterns and issues are discussed for seven economies france germany japan the netherlands sweden the united kingdom and the united states the emphasis is placed on differences across countries in the current labor market position of young people and recent trends therein along with the institutions that regulate youth education training and employment the power of public policies including labor market deregulation labor market programs vocationalization of education and apprenticeship to improve youth outcomes is discussed drawing on national evaluation literatures evidence of extensive policy failure points up the need to develop nationally appropriate institutions to improve school to work transitions

a spatial econometric approach to the economics of site specific nitrogen management in corn production the objective of this study is to determine the potential for using spatial econometric analysis of combine yield monitor data to estimate the site specific crop response functions the specific case study is for site specific nitrogen n application to corn production in argentina spatial structure of the yield data is modeled with landscape variables spatially autoregressive error and groupwise heteroskedasticity results suggest that n response differs by landscape position and that site specific application may be modestly profitable profitability depends on the model specification used with all spatial models consistently indicating profitability whereas the nonspatial models do not

punitive sanctions and the transition rate from welfare to work in the netherlands the average exit rate out of welfare is dramatically low most welfare recipients have to comply with guidelines on job search effort that are imposed by the welfare agency if they do not then a sanction in the form of a temporary benefit reduction can be imposed this article investigates the effect of such sanctions on the transition rate from welfare to work using a unique set of rich register data on welfare recipients we find that the imposition of sanctions substantially increases the individual transition rate from welfare to work

assessing the case for social experiments rs ecent academic debates pit two alternative approaches to policy evaluation against one another the first is the experimental approach based on the random assignment of accepted program applicants to a recipient or treatment group and a non recipient or control group the second is the nonexperimental or econometric approach that uses a variety of microdata sources statistical methods and behavioral models to compare the outcomes of participants in social programs with those of nonparticipants the central question addressed in this paper is whether or not randomized social experiments aid in securing answers to basic questions about the evaluation of social programs there are many distinct and complementary approaches to the study of the impact of public policy including full general equilibrium analysis of policy impacts tinbergen 1956 auerbach and kotlikoff 1987 shoven and whalley 1992 kydland and prescott 1991 and less ambitious partial equilibrium microeconomic structural research programs such as those designed to estimate the impact of taxes on labor supply both approaches offer answers to many interesting counterfactual policy questions but their credibility rests critically on the quality of the empirical input used to generate their answers

can training and employment subsidies combat european unemployment active policy evaluation problems methods and results european countries with poorly performing labour markets and labour market institutions conducive to high unemployment also feature considerable expenditures on active labour market policy and such policies are emphasized by the european union s employment strategy however the practice of these programmes evaluation is much less well developed in europe than in the united states we outline key issues facing such evaluation and offer a review and formal assessment of european evaluation studies over the last three decades we find that programme effects are very heterogeneous across types of interventions and target groups that training and job search assistance can be effective and that the young among the unemployed are typically difficult to assist jochen kluve and christoph m schmidt

measuring the effect of subsidized training programs on movements in and out of employment despite over two decades of u s experience in operating large scale subsidized training programs for low income and unemployed workers the effects of these programs are still highly controversial the controversy arises from the difficulty of specifying the model of participant outcomes in the absence of training that is necessary in any nonexperimental program evaluation in this paper we suggest that some of these difficulties may be overcome by focusing on a very simple measure of outcomes namely the probability of employment we present a variety of estimates of the effect of training on the probability of employment for the 1976 cohort of adult male participants in the comprehensive employment and training act ceta program our methods range from a simple comparison of pre and post training employment probabilities between trainees and nonparticipants to a fully specified first order markov model of employment probabilities with individual heterogeneity there is consistent evidence across methods that ceta participation increased the probability of employment in the three years after training by from 2 to 5 percentage points classroom training programs appear to have had significantly larger effects than on the job programs although the estimated effects of both kinds of programs are positive we also find that movements in and out of employment for trainees and nonparticipants are reasonably well described by a first order process conditional on individual heterogeneity in the context of this model ceta participation appears to have increased both the probability of moving into employment and the probability of continuing employment

job displacement and the transitions to re employment and early retirement for non employed older workers abstract despite the relatively higher frequency of job displacement among older workers in europe little is known about its effect on the work retirement decision employing individual data from the european community household panel for a number of countries with differences in their institutional environments the effect of job displacement for non employed workers is identified separately for the transitions into re employment and retirement the findings suggest that in countries with relatively more generous unemployment insurance provisions for the older unemployed which offer a pathway to early retirement older displaced workers exhibit lower re employment and higher retirement rates compared to the non displaced these results are robust to dynamic selection due to unobserved heterogeneity and to the endogeneity of displacement

discretionary policy and multiple equilibria in lq re models we study discretionary equilibria in dynamic linear quadratic rational expectations models in contrast to the assumptions that pervade this literature we show that these models do have multiple equilibria in some situations we demonstrate the existence of multiple discretionary equilibria by example we investigate general properties of discretionary equilibria and discuss implications for numerical algorithms

an empirical equilibrium job search model with continuously distributed heterogeneity of workers opportunity costs of employment and firms productivities and search on the job in this paper we present and estimate a synthesis of previous equilibrium search models allowing for continuous distributions of workers opportunity costs of employment as wellas firms productivities the model allows for on the job search and we assume that job offer arrival rates for workers are independent of their labormarket state we derive the theoretical implications of these assumptions we provide simulations and we develop a semi parametric estimation procedure that we apply to a dataset ofindividual labor market histories

localized competition and the aggregation of plant level increasing returns blast furnaces 1929 1935 a recent empirical literature has shaken economists confidence in the value of aggregate industry level data to illuminate production relationships but the statistical finding you cannot aggregate however well documented is not an economic explanation plant level relationships do aggregate in depression era blast furnace operations despite the presence of very substantial interplant heterogeneity the most common economic cause of nonaggregability the economic explanation of this lies in poor short run substitutability of one plant s output for another s substitutability determines the importance of composition effects in understanding aggregate time series constrains the potential cleansing effects of recessions and therefore influences industry evolution quite broadly

the pre programme earnings dip and the determinants of participation in a social programme implications for simple programme evaluation strategies the key to estimating the impact of a programme is constructing the counterfactual outcome representing what would have happened in its absence this problem becomes more complicated when agents such as individuals firms or local governments self select into the programme rather than being exogenously assigned to it this paper uses data from a major social experiment to identify what would have happened to the earnings of self selected participants in a job training programme had they not participated in it we investigate the implications of these earnings patterns for the validity of widely used before after and difference in differences estimators

duration dependence versus unobserved heterogeneity in treatment effects swedish labor market training and the transition rate to employment summary the effect of a treatment on the hazard rate of a duration outcome may depend on the elapsed time since treatment in addition treatment effects may be heterogeneous across agents the former gives rise to duration dependence of the treatment effect whereas unobserved heterogeneity gives rise to spurious duration dependence of the observable hazard rate we develop a model allowing for duration dependence and unobserved heterogeneity in the treatment effect the model incorporates a timing of events model and allows for selectivity on unobservables we prove identification exploiting variation in the timing of treatment and outcome in the application we analyze the effects of the swedish vocational employment training program on the individual transition rate from unemployment to work we demonstrate the appropriateness of the approach by studying the enrollment process the data cover the population and include multiple unemployment spells for many individuals the results indicate a large significantly positive effect on exit to work shortly after exiting the program the effect at the individual level diminishes after some weeks when taking account of the time spent in the program the effect on the mean unemployment duration is small copyright 2012 john wiley sons ltd

does the public employment service affect search effort and outcomes in this paper we examine the disincentive effects of the public employment service on the search effort of unemployed workers and on their exit rate from unemployment for that purpose we specify a structural search model with fixed and variable costs of search in which unemployed workers select their optimal search intensity given the exogenous arrival rate of job contacts coming from the public employment agency because the theoretical effect of an increase in this exogenous job contact arrival rate on the structural exit rate from unemployment is ambiguous we estimate this model using individual unemployment duration data our results show that the exit rate from unemployment increases with the arrival rate of job contacts obtained by the public employment service especially for low educated and low skilled workers they also show that the search effort is more costly for low educated women and low skilled adult unemployed workers this last result suggests that a public employment agency that matches searchers and employers is beneficial in the sense that it saves searchers in terms of search costs they would otherwise bear

social employment of welfare recipients in belgium an evaluation in belgium welfare agencies receive a subsidy to employ welfare recipients for a period sufficiently long to entitle them to unemployment benefits we investigate the effect of this programme on the exit rate from welfare we propose a grouping iv estimator of the programme effect that eliminates selection bias the estimator is consistent even if the selection into the programme depends on the average unobserved characteristics of welfare recipients in a region and in a welfare duration interval without correction for selectivity we find that the programme reduces welfare dependence but after correction this conclusion is reversed

identification results for duration models with multiple spells the purpose of this paper is to investigate the identifiability of duration models with multiple spells we prove that the results of elbers and ridder 1982 and heckman and singer 1984 can be generalized to multi spell models with lagged duration dependence we also prove that without lagged duration dependence the identification result does not depend on moment conditions or tail conditions on the mixing distribution this result is in contrast to ridder s 1990 result for single spell models

experimental evidence on the effects of early meetings and activation we analyze the effects of four randomized social experiments involving early and intensive active labour market policy conducted in denmark in 2008 the experiments entailed different combinations of early and intensive treatment in terms of meetings and active labour market programmes we find that frequent meetings between newly unemployed workers and case workers can increase employment rates over the next two years by up to 10 weeks the effects continue to grow over the whole 4 year horizon studied for men we find evidence of a threat effect of having to participate in early active labour market programmes while no such effect is found for women we conduct a cost benefit analysis of each ofthe four experiments and find that meetings yield the largest net benefits

earnings and employment effects of continuous off the job training in east germany after unification the effects of continuous off the job training oft for east germans after unification are analyzed in terms of their earnings and employment probabilities using the potential outcome approach to causality as general framework different matching procedures are suggested for the estimation they allow for permanent and transitory shocks that influence oft participation and labor market outcomes the matching procedures also take account of individually different starting dates the data are taken from the german socio economic panel gsoep 1990 1994 this dataset is very informative with respect to factors influencing the participation in training the results show no positive effects of training

the effect of benefit sanctions on the duration of unemployment this paper investigates the effectiveness of unemployment benefit sanctions in reducing unemployment duration swiss data on benefit sanctions allow us to separate the effect of a warning that a person is not complying with eligibility requirements from the effect of the actual enforcement of a benefit sanction moreover public employment services are given substantial leeway in setting the monitoring intensity results indicate that both warning and enforcement have a positive effect on the exit rate out of unemployment and that increasing the monitoring intensity reduces the duration of unemployment of the nonsanctioned jel j64 j65 j68

evaluating the econometric evaluations of training programs with experimental data this paper takes the results of an employment and training program thatwas run as a field experiment in which the participants were randomlyassigned into a treatment or a control group and compares these results to the estimates that might have been produced by an econometrician who evaluated the program using the same econometric procedures that have been used in the program evaluation literature this comparison shows that many of these econometric procedures fail toreplicate the experimentally determined results and suggests that researchers should be aware of the potential for specification errorsin other nonexperimental evaluations copyright 1986 by american economic association

adding value to spatially managed inputs by understanding site specific yield response abstract many mechanized crop producers and agribusinesses are fascinated with precision agriculture technology but adoption has lagged behind the expectations among the reasons for slow adoption of precision agriculture technology is that initial users focused excessively on in field benefits from variable rate fertilizer application using regional average fertilizer recommendations this article illustrates how greater use of site specific crop response information can improve variable rate input application recommendations precision agriculture is spatial information technology applied to agriculture the technologies include global position systems gps geographic information systems gis yield monitoring sensors and computer controlled within field variable rate application vra equipment experimentation with these technologies is occurring everywhere there is large scale mechanized agriculture commercial use has been greatest in the us where 43 of farm retailers offered vra services in 2001 except for certain high value crops like sugar beet farmer adoption of vra has been modest the farm level profitability of vra continues to be questionable for bulk commodity crops the theoretical model and illustration presented here suggest that vra fertilization has not yet reached its profitability potential most vra field trials to date have relied upon existing state wide or regional input rate recommendations unobserved soil characteristics can potentially interact with an input to make its effect on yield vary site specifically within fields failure to use site specific response functions for vra applications may lead to a misallocation of inputs just as great as that which results from using uniform applications instead of vra agricultural economists have a long history of estimating output response to input applications several have started to develop tools to estimate site specific responses from yield monitor and other precision agriculture data likewise agricultural economists have developed an important body of research results on information value based on managing variability typically in temporal settings with these tools a major potential exists to develop further benefits from precision agriculture technologies that permit truly spatially tailored input applications

the labour input response to permanent changes in output an errors in variables analysis based on panel data using panel data for norwegian manufacturing we revisit the increasing returns to scale puzzle for labour inputs we consider the response of the input of white collar workers blue collar workers and blue collar worker hours to permanent changes in output permanent and temporary changes in output are treated as latent variables we compare ols iv and gmm estimates of the response elasticities and conclude that the distinction between permanent and temporary changes is essential our gmm estimates suggest that the increasing returns to scale puzzle remains for all measures of the labour input also when we consider their response to permanent changes in output for materials the output response indicates approximately constant returns to scale this suggests non homotheticity of the production technology jel classification c23 j23

is site specific yield response consistent over time does it pay this study examines the profitability and stability of site specific ss nitrogen fertilizer recommendations using an empirical model of ss yield response to controlled inputs stable site characteristics and time varying weather factors using a three year panel of on farm corn yield experiments and new continuous variables to describe site characteristics both spatial and ordinary least squares regression models show clear evidence of ss corn yield response to nitrogen fertilizer yield response is predictable only on irrigated fields even there bootstrapped confidence intervals for profitability gains on selected fields indicate that ss nitrogen application would rarely cover its costs

youth employment policies in france abstract in this paper we present a summary of recent microeconometric results on the evaluation of the effects of active labor market policies on youth employment in france we focus our discussion on three types of policies 1 youth employment schemes for out of employment and low skilled young adults 2 on the job training schemes 3 payroll tax subsidies for minimum wage workers training programs for unemployed young workers have in general no effects on post training wages or employment probabilities except if they have a large training content in contrast the reduction of labor costs have significant effects on employment probabilities of low wage workers however their effects appear to be stronger for workers between 25 and 30

evaluating the impact of french employment policies on individual labour market histories this paper deals with the evaluation of some public employment policies set up in france during the 1980 s to improve the labour market prospects of unskilled young workers the evaluation implemented in this paper is restricted to the impact of such public measures on durations and outcomes of subsequent spells of unemployment and employment the econometric study is conducted with non experimental longitudinal microdata recording individual labour nlarket histories a particular attention is paid to the differential effects of various types of measures according to the educational level of recipients programmes involving a higher level of on thejob training such as alternating work training programmes in private firms are principally beneficial to the less educated young workers in contrast for more educated young workers work fare programmes in the public sector decrease the intensity of transition from the subsequent unemployment spell to regular jobs for that subgroup work fare programmes may act as a signal of low employment performance

the value of variable rate technology an information theoretic approach we present a theoretical treatment of the economics of variable rate technology and its interplay with information the framework facilitates description of on farm empirical profitability studies of variable rate nitrogen application on illinois cornfields we estimate site specific ex ante economically optimal nitrogen application rates and the value of site specific information in the management of variable rate technology we find that with site specific information provided free variable rate nitrogen application would have been profitable in six of eight fields because private markets are unlikely to provide such information sufficiently more public funding of long term multiregion multiyear experimentation is appropriate copyright 2009 oxford university press

the threat effect of active labour market programmes in this paper we estimate the threat effect of active labour market programmes almps for a sample of unemployed men in denmark threat effects of such programmes capture the impacts of a system of almps prior to actual participation rational economic agents make search decisions based on the expected discounted value of unemployment and the perceived risk of future participation in programmes may affect job search behaviour early in the unemployment spell we find a strong and significant threat effect which is shown to reduce average unemployment duration by two and a half weeks

unemployment insurance in europe unemployment duration and subsequent employment stability the disincentive effect of unemployment insurance on unemployment duration has been the focus of the empirical literature the potential effect of unemployment insurance on post unemployment outcomes which may be regarded as beneficial by improving job matching has attracted much less attention this paper provides evidence on the effect of unemployment benefits on unemployment and employment duration in europe using individual data from the european community household panel for eight countries country specific estimates based on multivariate discrete time duration models controlling for observed and unobserved individual heterogeneity suggest that although receiving benefits has an adverse effect in the sense of increasing unemployment duration there is also a positive effect by increasing subsequent employment duration this beneficial effect of unemployment insurance on employment stability is pronounced in countries with relatively generous benefit systems and for recipients who have remained unemployed for at least six months these findings are in line with theories suggesting a matching effect of unemployment insurance

hiring young unskilled workers on subsidized open ended contracts a good integration programme young labour market entrants account for a high level of unemployment and short term contracts in july 2002 the french government moved to reduce this insecurity at the start of working life by introducing the youth in business contract contrat jeune en entreprise a new contract for young people under 22 years old who dropped out of school before passing their final secondary school examinations under this scheme firms were entitled to claim a subsidy when they hired an eligible young worker on an open ended contract we assess the impact of the youth in business contract on transitions to permanent employment by estimating a dynamic difference in difference model drawing on the french labour force survey we use a new method inspired by keane and sauer 2009 to deal with measurement errors in the data we find that programme eligibility has no effect on transitions to permanent employment in a recession environment

ecosystem services and agriculture cultivating agricultural ecosystems for diverse benefits crop and rangelands are over 25 of the earth s land area and they are expanding agricultural ecosystems rely on a suite of supporting ecosystem services to provide food fiber and fuel as well as a range of accompanying but non marketed ecosystem services es ecosystem services from agriculture include regulation of water and climate systems aesthetic and cultural services as well as enhanced supporting services such as soil fertility many of these es are appreciated by people but they lack markets so they lack the incentives for provision that come with prices for public policy decisions to take them into account non market valuation techniques are needed such as travel cost contingent valuation hedonic valuation and cost based or factor income approaches this article offers an overview of es from agriculture and non market valuation methods as it introduces the articles in this special section on ecosystem services and agriculture understanding how ecological functions generate es is fundamental to management but so too is understanding how humans perceive and value those services research is required both to design cost effective incentives to provide es and to measure which kinds of es could provide the greatest overall welfare benefits to society agricultural ecosystems offer newly recognized potential to deliver more diverse ecosystem services and mitigate the level of past ecosystem disservices this special section of ecological economics conveys both how these are becoming possible and the challenges to science and public policy design of turning that potential into reality

credit market frictions and the allocation of resources over the business cycle abstract in a seminal paper davis and haltiwanger 1990 demonstrated that recessions are associated with increased job reallocation the conventional view has interpreted this as evidence of cleansing less productive jobs are destroyed in recessions and resources are reallocated to more productive uses this paper argues instead that in the presence of credit market frictions reallocation might go the other way directing resources from more efficient to less efficient uses this will occur if more efficient production arrangements are also more vulnerable to credit constraints i show that this pattern arises endogenously in an equilibrium model and offer some evidence that firms with higher output per worker tend to borrow more suggesting they are more vulnerable to credit constrains

assessing the impact of a wage subsidy for single parents on social assistance this paper studies the impact of a wage subsidy program aimed at long term social assistance recipients in quebec the program closely mimics the self sufficiency project and was implemented for a trial period of one year in 2002 we focus on the labour market transitions of the targeted population starting one year before the implementation of the program and up until the end of 2005 our results show that the duration of spells off social assistance increased while the duration of social assistance spells decreased slightly the response to the program varies considerably both with observed and unobserved characteristics

true and spurious duration dependence the identifiability of the proportional hazard model lancaster and nickell 1980 have argued that in the proportional hazard model the effects of time dependence true duration dependence and unobserved sample heterogeneity spurious duration dependence cannot be distinguished we show that both effects can be distinguished if the model allows for observed explanatory variables in the hazard we also discuss the application of our result to practical situations

when does the stepping stone work fixed term contracts versus temporary agency work in changing economic conditions summary this paper emphasizes differences among short term contracts in terms of career prospects using french data over the 2002 2010 period we rely on a dynamic model with fixed effects to disentangle state dependence from unobserved heterogeneity although fixed term contracts may provide a stepping stone to permanent positions temporary agency work is hardly better than unemployment in this regard the great recession of 2008 has changed the dynamics on the labor market and amplified the difference between fixed term contracts and temporary agency work for both types of temporary workers providing overtime work does not significantly increase the transition to permanent employment copyright 2014 john wiley sons ltd

subsidized temporary jobs lock in and stepping stone effects this article evaluates the effectiveness of subsidized temporary jobs as stepping stones to regular employment we study a french program that allows job seekers to work part time while remaining registered with the unemployment agency in this program insured individuals concurrently receive part of their unemployment benefits and wage income using administrative data we find that subsidized temporary jobs have both a significant lock in effect and a significant positive post treatment impact on the hazard rate to employment since individuals facing a high implicit tax rate have incentives to self select into better part time jobs we also find that a higher tax rate leads to a weaker lock in effect and a stronger post treatment effect simulations suggest that the lock in effect first dominates but that the overall effect eventually becomes positive they also point to ways of improving the effectiveness of the policy

how effective are unemployment benefit sanctions looking beyond unemployment exit this paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of benefit sanctions i e temporary reductions in unemployment benefits as punishment for noncompliance with eligibility requirements in addition to the effects on unemployment durations we evaluate the effects on post unemployment employment stability on exits from the labor market and on earnings in our analysis we use a rich set of swiss register data which allow us to distinguish between ex ante effects the effects of warnings and the effects of enforcement of benefit sanctions adopting a multivariate mixed proportional hazard approach to address selectivity we find that both warnings and enforcement increase the job finding rate and the exit rate out of the labor force warnings do not affect subsequent employment stability but do reduce post unemployment earnings actual benefit reductions lower the quality of post unemployment jobs both in terms of job duration as well as in terms of earnings the net effect of a benefit sanction on post unemployment income is negative over a period of two years after leaving unemployment workers who got a benefit sanction imposed face a net income loss equivalent to 30 days of full pay due to the ex post effect in addition to that stricter monitoring may reduce net earnings by up to 4 days of pay for every unemployed worker due to the ex ante effect

the impact of active labour market programmes on the duration of unemployment in switzerland this article evaluates the effects of swiss active labour market programmes on the job chances of unemployed workers the main innovation is a comparison of two important dynamic evaluation estimators the matching estimator and the timing of events estimator we find that both estimators generate different treatment effects according to the matching estimator temporary subsidised jobs shorten unemployment duration whereas training programmes and employment programmes do not in contrast the timing of events estimator suggests that none of the swiss active labour market programmes shortens unemployment duration the aim of the present article is to study the impact of active labour market policies almps on the duration of unemployment in switzerland the new swiss almps reflect the increasing consensus among policy makers that actively assisting the unemployed in job search is preferable to simply providing them with passive income support the danger is so the argument goes that reliance on passive income support may reduce work incentives and job search activities and therefore increase the risk of long term unemployment almps are seen by many as the key to minimise these risks the question how participation in almp measures affects labour market histories of individuals has been the subject of substantial debate the main problem is that labour market outcomes for participants may be systematically different from non participants

is labour market training a curse for the unemployed evidence from a social experiment summary in 1994 a social experiment was conducted in denmark where unemployed applicants for classroom training were randomised into treatment and control groups the data are contaminated by the presence of no shows and crossovers biasing the traditional experimental estimator we interpret our experiment within an economic model of agents maximising outcomes facing different cost regimes and present results interpretable within this model surprisingly we find that classroom training significantly increases individual unemployment rates and decreases employability we discuss possible reasons for this finding and some related policy issues copyright 2009 john wiley sons ltd this paper uses data from a social experiment to evaluate the impact of classroom training on the subsequent fraction of time individuals spend in unemployment and in employment and on their wages in doing so we exploit the information from one among only a handful of social experiments conducted in europe on labour market issues social experiments are seen by many as the way to consistently estimate the effect of a policy on an outcome variable of interest the trick is to randomise the selection process itself such that the outcomes in the control group can be used as an estimate of the unobserved counterfactual in this case the outcome of trained individuals in the absence of training however experimental data are often flawed as is the case in the experiment studied in this paper in the present study the data are contaminated by the presence of no shows members of the treatment group who do not show up at the course they signed up for and crossovers members of the control group who end up receiving the treatment they were randomised out of the presence of no shows crossovers and also drop outs is a well known phenomenon in social experiments see heckman et al 1998b 2000 neglecting their presence may seriously bias the estimates of the parameter of interest simply because they constitute the very phenomenon that the experiment is designed to eliminate namely non random selection 1 in the experiment studied in this paper only 52 of

the impact of vocational training for the unemployed experimental evidence from turkey this brief summarizes the updates from the 2014 paper entitled the impact of vocational training for the unemployed experimental evidence from turkey conducted between between 2010 and 2011 in turkey a randomized experiment is used to evaluate a large scale active labor market policy turkey s vocational training programs for the unemployed a detailed follow up survey of a large sample with low attrition enables precise estimation of treatment impacts and their heterogeneity the average impact of training on employment is positive but close to zero and statistically insignificant which is much lower than either program officials or applicants expected over the first year after training the paper finds that training had statistically significant effects on the quality of employment and that the positive impacts are stronger when training is offered by private providers however longer term administrative data show that after three years these effects have also dissipated

attrition in longitudinal panel data and the empirical analysis of dynamic labour market behaviour in the empirical analysis of unemployment durations and job durations it is generally assumed that the stochastic processes underlying labour market behaviour and the behaviour concerning participation in a panel survey are independent however there are reasons to believe that the probability of dropping out of the panel is related to the rate at which a different job is found if there is such a relation and if it is ignored then the estimator of the rate at which individuals become employed or change jobs will generally be inconsistent in this paper we analyse the relation between the duration spent in a particular labour market state and the duration of panel survey participation by explicitly modelling and estimating the joint distribution of both durations the emphasis will be on models allowing for stochastically related unobserved determinants of both types of duration we estimate models both for unemployment durations and for job durations copyright 1994 john wiley sons ltd

substitution and dropout bias in social experiments a study of an influential social experiment this paper considers the interpretation of evidence from social experiments when persons randomized out of a program being evaluated have good substitutes for it and when persons randomized into a program drop out to pursue better alternatives using data from an experimental evaluation of a classroom training program we document the empirical importance of control group substitution and treatment group dropping out evidence that one program is ineffective relative to close substitutes is not evidence that the type of service provided by all of the programs is ineffective although that is the way experimental evidence is often interpreted