the electricity generation adequacy problem assessing dynamic effects of capacity remuneration mechanisms abstract following liberalization reforms the ability of power markets to provide satisfactory incentives for capacity investments has become a major concern in particular current energy markets can exhibit a phenomenon of investment cycles which generate phases of under and over capacity and hence additional costs and risks for generation adequacy to cope with these issues new mechanisms called capacity remuneration mechanisms crm have been or will be implemented this paper assesses the dynamic effects of two crms the capacity market and the strategic reserve mechanism and studies to what extent they can reduce the investment cycles generation costs and shortage costs of both mechanisms are also compared to conclude on their effectivity and economic efficiency a simulation model based on system dynamics is developed to study the functioning of both crms and the related investment decisions the results highlight the benefits of deploying crms to solve the adequacy issue shortages are strongly reduced compared to an energy only market besides the capacity market appears to be more beneficial since it experiences fewer shortages and generation costs are lower these comparisons can be used by policy makers in particular in europe where these two crms are mainly debated to determine which crm to adopt

games for electricity traders understanding risk in a deregulated industry abstract we illustrate and discuss the use of a computer based learning environment known as a microworld for training agents in the colombian electricity market as the market operator was concerned with efficiency in the electricity spot market because of an insufficient number of participants they commissioned a tool that could help potential participants to learn about both market operation as well as the risk management it involved by making the industry more transparent it was intended that a larger number of traders and companies would participate in the market making it more efficient we describe the development and use of this tool which is based on system dynamics and gaming

contracts as a barrier to entry it is shown that an incumbent seller who faces a threat of entry into his or her market will sign long term contracts that prevent the entry of some lower cost producers even though they do not preclude entry completely moreover when a seller possesses superior information about the likelihood of entry it is shown that the length of the contract may act as a signal of the true probability of entry

optimal pricing in electrical networks over space and time an electrical system is modelled with a transmission network customers central generators and independent generators the system is subject to stochastic failures and stochastic demand parameters optimal spot prices are derived for the system they vary stochastically with space and time and depend on electrical load flow patterns the price difference between two locations or two voltage levels and the wheeling charge between them will change magnitude and sometimes sign over time as a function of events throughout the network current spatial pricing methods are significantly different from the spot price based methods derived here

centralized bargaining and reorganized work are they compatible the paper examines the implications for wage bargaining of an important aspect of the ongoing reorganization of work the move from occupational specialization toward multi tasking the analysis shows how on account of such reorganization centralized bargaining becomes increasingly ine cient and detrimental to rms pro t opportunities since it prevents rms from o ering their employees adequate incentives to perform the appropriate mix of tasks the paper also shows how centralized bargaining inhibits rms from using wages to induce workers to learn how to use their experience from one set of tasks to enhance their performance at other tasks in this way the paper may also help explain the increasing resistance to centralized bargaining in various advanced market economies 2001 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

using the decentralized and liberalized electricity market microworld lemm as an educational tool abstract decentralized and liberalized electricity market involves a great deal of interdisciplinary concepts including economic commercial environmental and technological issues consequently the system is complicated accordingly nowadays introductory courses focusing on the electricity market dynamics have been added to the curriculum at many universities however as the electricity market dynamics are complicated it is not straightforward for students to understand a teaching tool to assist students to better understand strategic behaviors in the market is thus in high demand due to these reasons liberalized electricity market microworld lemm incorporating a system dynamics based simulation model is developed the lemm s contribution to the students learning and understanding of the decentralized and liberalized electricity market dynamics have been explored by organizing game sessions with the lemm for totally 49 students who participated in energy policy and planning course in bogazici university the findings obtained from the exploratory study reveal that the students improved their understanding of the liberalized and decentralized electricity market through the game session with the lemm in this paper the general characteristics of the lemm and the underlying model are presented the microworlds particularly the lemm s potential contribution to learning and teaching is discussed

second sourcing and the experience curve price competition in defense procurement we examine a dynamic model ofprice competition in defense procurement that incorporates the experience curve asymmetric cost information and the availability of a higher cost alternative system we model acquisition as a two stage process in which initial production is governed by a contract between the government and the developer competition is then introduced by an auction in which a second source bids against the developer for remaining production we characterize the class of production contracts that are cost minimizing for the government and that induce the developer to reveal private cost information when high costs are revealed these contracts result in a credible cutoff of new system production in favor of the still higher cost alternative system

the british model in britain failing slowly in 1990 britain reorganised its electricity industry to run on competitive lines the british reforms are widely regarded as successful and the model used provides the basis for reforms of electricity industries worldwide the main reason for this perception of success is major reductions in the real price of electricity with no reduction in service quality this paper examines whether the reputation of the british reforms is justified it concludes that the reputation is not justified and that serious fundamental problems are beginning to emerge the central question is have the british reforms resulted in the creation of efficient wholesale and retail markets on this criterion the reforms have failed the wholesale market is dominated by obscure long term contracts privileged access to the market and self dealing within integrated generator retailers leaving the spot markets with minimal liquidity and unreliable prices the failure to develop an efficient wholesale market places the onus on consumers to impose competitive forces on electricity companies by switching regularly small consumers will not do this and they are paying too much for their power for the future there is a serious risk that the electricity industry will become a weakly regulated oligopoly with a veneer of competition

myths and facts of the utility death spiral abstract as the electricity industry is changing worldwide the swift expansion of basic forms of distributed generation dg particularly photovoltaic deployment threatens the current utility business models that during the transitional stages may challenge the reliability of electricity systems and societal welfare these findings are matters of major concern to policy makers as the shift towards more decentralized power systems must be sustainable and although this brings great opportunities it also pauses important challenges the transition calls for policy and regulation attention for some researchers dg development should be accompanied with design changes to distribution tariffs the addition of connection charge and modifications to net metering while for others certain of these measures could discourage dg investments in this context and given multiple uncertainties the authors propose a system dynamics model to examine the effect of the diffusion of photovoltaic technology on the revenues of utilities and customers the paper concludes that for the colombian case it is possible under certain conditions to attain a balance between social welfare and the aversion of the utility death spiral through systemic interventions

intra industry trade reconsidered the role of technology transfer and foreign direct investment this paper investigates novel determinants of intra industry trade iit of late 1990s japanese trade our empirical analysis shows that iit is increased not only by the similarity of gdp and factor endowment but also by technology transfer via japanese fdi in particular the current high proportion of japanese iit with asian countries can be explained by technology transfer licensing between headquarters and overseas affiliates via fdi

private information and intertemporal job assignments this paper studies the assignment of people to projects over time in a model with private information the combination of risk neutrality with incomplete contracts that restrict the ability of an agent to report on interim states is a force for long term assignments more generally however rotating agents can be valuable because it conceals information from agents which mitigates incentive constraints with complete contracts that communicate interim states rotation allows for even more concealment possibilities and better targeted incentives furthermore it allows for the reporting of interim shocks at no cost to the principal properties of the production technology are also shown to matter substitutability of intertemporal effort is a force for long term assignments while coordination with nash equilibrium strategies is a force for job rotation copyright 2006 wiley blackwell

policy changes and the dynamics of capacity expansion in the swiss electricity market abstract capacity of supply is a crucial matter in electricity markets as it directly influences reliability of supply price volatility and blackout risk in this paper we analyse the dynamics of capacity expansion in the swiss electricity market and the impact of different policies such as nuclear phaseout and management of electricity exchanges imports and exports policies this article develops the conceptualization model presented in ochoa p 2007b policy changes in the swiss electricity market a system dynamics analysis of likely market responses socio economic planning sciences 41 4 336 349 we build a system dynamics model based on the dynamics of capacity expansion explained in the latter paper and present and analyse different scenarios we conclude that international electricity exchanges are important for the swiss market as they help to lower costs and to increase the income of the utility companies however we illustrate the need for explicit policies for managing imports and exports of electricity to avoid import dependence from neighbouring countries

the asymmetric effect of endowments on vertical intra industrial trade este articulo trata de analizar los determinantes del comercio intra industrial vertical en espana con una muestra de paises extensa se contrasta empiricamente la hipotesis de la ventaja comparativa con esta finalidad hemos construido series de capital fisico humano y tecnologico en media cuando se utiliza la estimacion mco las diferencias en dotaciones suponen una limitacion al comercio intra industrial vertical usando la tecnica de regresion por cuantiles se observa que este efecto negativo disminuye en terminos absolutos a medida que los flujos de comercio intra industrial vertical se incrementan y en algunos casos llegan a ser positivos en los cuantiles altos de la distribucion este resultado ofrece evidencia a favor de una version reducida de la hipotesis de la ventaja comparativa

de regulated electric power markets and operating nuclear power plants the case of british energy abstract one issue addressed in almost all electric power restructuring de regulation plans in both the united states us and the united kingdom uk was the recovery of operating nuclear power plant s spent fuel disposal costs and the expenditures to decommission the units when they are retired prior to restructuring in theory at least in both countries electricity consumers were paying for the back end costs from operating nuclear power plants moreover in virtually all cases in the us states included special provisions to insure that consumers would continue to do so after power markets were de regulated when power markets in the uk were initially restructured de regulated and nuclear power privatized the shareholders of british energy be were initially responsible for these costs however after electricity prices fell and be collapsed the british government shifted many of the costs to future taxpayers as much as a century forward if this was not done the book value of be s equity would have been about 3 5 billion pounds that is be s liabilities would have been about 3 5 billion pounds greater than their assets it is difficult to see how be could remain viable under such circumstances

vertical relationships an introduction this short essay introduces a special issue of the journal of industrial economics on vertical relationships including both vertical integration and vertical restraints in the last few years there has been a resurgence of theoretical and empirical work on vertical relationships and they are central to major current issues in industrial policy in this introduction the authors briefly describe the contribution by the papers that make up this special issue copyright 1991 by blackwell publishing ltd

exploring the options for carbon dioxide mitigation in turkish electric power industry system dynamics approach electric power industry has a huge carbon mitigation potential fundamentally because there are large carbon free renewable resource options in turkey with growing demand in electricity consumption and incentives offered for natural gas fired electricity generation co2 emissions sourced from electric power industry had tripled over the last two decades current governmental strategy focuses on energy security and resource diversity in a growing economy and does not articulate sufficient mitigation targets and appropriate regulations in this research an original dynamic simulation model is built validated and analyzed to explore the options for carbon mitigation in turkish electric power industry model structure represents the investment dispatch and pricing heuristics as well as the natural resource base of electricity generation in turkey it operates on annual basis over 30 years to simulate installed capacities and generations of power plants with alternative resources and their resulting co2 emissions the analysis presented in this paper reveals that there are mitigation options below 50 of business as usual growth with common policy options such as feed in tariffs investment subsidies and carbon taxes the model can serve as an experimental platform for further analysis of problems related to carbon mitigation in turkish electricity sector

application of games with incomplete information for pricing electricity in deregulated power pools the authors present a game theory approach to the problem of pricing electricity in deregulated marketplaces they assume that an independent operator receives bids by pool participants and defines transactions among participants by looking for the minimum price that satisfies the demand in the pool the competition among pool participants is modeled as a noncooperative game with incomplete information they assume that each pool participant knows its own operation costs but does not know his opponents operation costs the game with incomplete information is transformed into a game with complete but imperfect information and solved using the nash equilibrium idea the approach presented in this paper is geared towards providing support for pricing electricity in deregulated pools

reform of the electricity supply industry in britain an assessment of the development of public policy abstract several countries have been trying gradually to increase competition in electricity supply but britain has just taken a radical step with this aim a vertically integrated administered structure has been replaced by one that is more market based in particular electricity generation and transmission have been separated policy proceeded in four steps the commitment to privatise structural reform establishment of the regulatory framework and decisions on contractual arrangements this paper discusses difficulties that arose as policy developed and argues that the complexities of market failure problems in electricity supply were underestimated initially some lessons for policymakers elsewhere are suggested

simulating price patterns for tradable green certificates to promote electricity generation from wind abstract this article uses computer simulation to anticipate the price dynamics in a market for tradable green certificates tgcs these markets have been used in europe to promote generation of electricity from renewable resources like wind similar markets have been proposed in the united states of america usa where the certificates are called renewable energy credits recs the certificates are issued to the generating companies for each megawatt hour of renewable electricity generation the companies may sell the certificates in a market and the revenues from certificate sales provide an extra incentive to invest in new generating capacity proponents argue that this market based incentive can be designed to support government mandates for a growing fraction of electricity generation from renewable sources in the usa these mandates are set by the states and are known as renewable portfolio standards rps we simulate the price dynamics of a market designed to support an aggressive mandate for wind generation in the northwestern usa the simulations show that the certificate price climbs rapidly to the cap in the early years after the market opens investors then react to these high prices with construction of new wind capacity after a few years wind generation meets and then exceeds the requirement we show that this pattern appears again and again when the simulations are repeated with wide variations in the estimates of behavioral parameters we use the model to study the impact of different trading strategies by the wind companies and by the distribution companies we also study the simulated market response if the usa adopts the carbon allowance market envisioned in the climate stewardship act the article concludes with recommendations for policy makers involved in tgc market design

on the incentive effects of job rotation abstract a new employee may work hard to build his reputation this effect is greatest when he starts the longer he is employed at his job the more the firm will already have learned about his ability the incentives for an employee to influence the firm s perceptions of his ability decrease over time if rotating the employee to a different job leads to new uncertainty about his ability this generates a fresh impulse for effort however job rotation also reduces the employee s time horizon thus reducing future rents from reputation this trade off leads to a unique optimum we derive a simple rule of thumb for an optimal rotation time our main results still hold for cases of complete but imperfect information transmission the incentive effects of job rotation also prevail in a setting in which skills are job specific we study several extensions rotations across multiple employees absence of commitment to a rotation time different bargaining positions discounting over time and learning by doing effects

evaluation of regulatory impacts on dynamic behavior of investments in electricity markets a new hybrid dp game framework a new hybrid framework based on game theory and dynamic programming dp with random demands and prices is proposed for studying the impacts of regulatory interventions on the dynamics of investment in power generation in electricity markets in our approach using markov chains the electric demand and growth of fuel prices have been modeled dp has been used for solving the generation expansion planning gep problem investment strategies of other investors in the market are modeled as constraints the income of the investor is calculated by modeling strategic interactions among market players in the spot energy market the cournot game concept has been applied and the nash equilibrium is calculated for each state and stage of dp simulation results confirm that the proposed framework is an appropriate decision support tool that provides useful information about dynamics of investment

privatization liberalization wages and employment theory and evidence for the uk most agency based privatization models are of the owner manager relation and ignore the labour market yet in the 1980s there were profound changes in public sector and privatized firms to wages and employment we develop a bargaining model of the manager workforce relation that explains employment and wages when firms are privatized government objectives become more commercial and markets are liberalised using data on 14 uk companies 1972 1988 that were publicly owned in 1972 we find a employment fell following the change to more commercial objectives b wages were only slightly affected by this but fell if the firm lost market power

lost in transition comparing strategies of electricity companies in delhi this paper examines the notion of energy transition when implemented by private utilities in 2000 the delhi government privatized electricity distribution to three private distribution companies most research was concerned with the impact of privatization on energy reliability tariff settings and regulation issues this paper looks at two under researched themes the expansion of services to poorer neighborhoods and the rollout of clean energy policies this focus allows to unpack the materiality of socio technical systems to analyze how energy infrastructures are being technically deployed on the ground and to identify which social approach is used to detail the specific practices of each company provides a more nuanced and accurate understanding of the reform in depth analysis of the three private utilities show that they interpret the reform mandate differently they use a varied range of technical tools they respond differently to social concerns in poorer neighborhoods and they have distinctive internal management choices and corporate cultures all these four factors can strengthen or undermine the transition towards increased access and clean energy

the dynamics of learning with team production implications for task assignment we analyze optimal task assignment when a firm needs to learn the abilities of employees when projects require collaboration between juniors and seniors and only team outputs are observable having juniors divide their time between two projects junior sharing is less informative about their abilities but more informative about their senior teammates abilities than having juniors devote all their time to a single project no sharing in an overlapping generations model we show that no sharing is more less attractive than junior sharing if the prior uncertainty about abilities is small large relative to exogenous shocks to team production

long term diffusion dynamics of alternative fuel vehicles in brazil abstract alternative fuel vehicles afv are a promising alternative to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the transportation sector and ultimately to contribute to a more sustainable society within the current commitments of the brazilian government to international agreements in terms of emissions reductions by 2030 some new policies have been implemented in order to incentivize the diffusion of afv in the country yet how will these policies contribute to the goal of increasing its fleet in the long term how long will it take and what are the differences if any among the policies in terms of their effectiveness are questions that remain unanswered in this sense the main aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of public policies in the long term diffusion dynamics of afv in brazil in order to do so a system dynamics model is developed based on the generalized bass diffusion model the cobb douglas function and the learning curve theory the model is used to test four different policies and some uncertainties related to i the exemption of the import duty ii the reduction of the motor vehicle property tax iii the exemption of the tax on manufacturing goods and iv a banning regulation for internal combustion engine vehicles in the long term the results highlight the importance of the current incentive policies but at the same time call for reinforcing efforts in order to increase the afv fleet to significant values by 2030 conversely the banning regulation obtains a higher diffusion rate but only achieves significant values by 2060 the paper concludes by showing the main contributions and policy implications of the effectiveness of the four policies studied as well as some suggestions for future work

modeling long term dynamics of electricity markets in the last decade many countries have restructured their electricity industries by introducing competition in their power generation sectors although some restructuring has been regarded as successful the short experience accumulated with liberalized power markets does not allow making any founded assertion about their long term behavior long term prices and long term supply reliability are now center of interest this concerns firms considering investments in generation capacity and regulatory authorities interested in assuring the long term supply adequacy and the stability of power markets in order to gain significant insight into the long term behavior of liberalized power markets in this paper a simulation model based on system dynamics is proposed and the underlying mathematical formulations extensively discussed unlike classical market models based on the assumption that market outcomes replicate the results of a centrally made optimization the approach presented here focuses on replicating the system structure of power markets and the logic of relationships among system components in order to derive its dynamical response the simulations suggest that there might be serious problems to adjust early enough the generation capacity necessary to maintain stable reserve margins and consequently stable long term price levels because of feedback loops embedded in the structure of power markets and the existence of some time lags the long term market development might exhibit a quite volatile behavior by varying some exogenous inputs a sensitivity analysis is carried out to assess the influence of these factors on the long run market dynamics

contract duration and relationship specific investments empirical evidence from coal markets this paper examines the importance of specific relationship investments in determining the duration of coal contracts negotiated between coal suppliers and electric utilities data for 277 coal contracts are used to perform the analysis the results provide strong support for the view that buyers and sellers make longer commitments to the terms of future trade at the contract execution stage and rely less on repeated bargaining when relationship specific investments are more important

entry deterrence and the free rider problem the public good aspect of entry prevention is examined in an industry characterized by an established oligopoly facing a potential entrant although incumbent firms act noncooperatively underinvestment in entry deterrence does not occur and in fact incumbents may find themselves in a pareto dominated arrangement in terms of profits by preventing entry

new aspects of intra industry trade in eu countries this paper discusses some new evidence on intra industry trade iit in particular we focus on eu trade with eastern european countries using trade data at the harmonised commodity description and coding system hs eight digit product level for the period 1988 2010 our findings include eastern european countries rise up the quality ladder and by contrast the substantially lower prices of china s exports to eu countries vis a vis china s imports from them the contrast between eu trade with eastern european countries and with china is present even in recent years

from planning to strategy in the electricity industry abstract as more utility markets are deregulated and competition is introduced there is an increasing need to understand how the planning methods used under monopoly have to change to take the new deregulated environment into account although this might seem relatively trivial it has been a major problem for a large number of utilities which have continued using the same planning approaches that they used when they were monopolies in this paper we first describe the environment which under monopoly conditions gave rise to the use of mainly operational research methods for planning we then argue that deregulation has changed the fundamental assumptions making the planning methods used under monopoly less useful after deregulation finally we review a number of methods that utilities should consider using when they formulate strategy in deregulated markets

pre emptive patenting joint ventures and the persistence of oligopoly abstract gilbert and newbery 1982 have examined pre emptive patenting and the persistence of monopoly the present paper considers pre emptive patenting when there are several incumbent firms rather than just one it is shown why the incumbent oligopolists behaving non cooperatively might fail to deter entry this suggests that a joint venture in r and d might be a useful entry deterring device insofar as it pools the incumbents incentives to prevent entry this is indeed the case for small innovations but for large innovations the formation of a joint venture weakens the incumbents incentive to innovate by removing the competitive stimulus between them

job transfers and incentives in complex organizations thwarting the ratchet effect many complex organizations such as planned soviet enterprises and the u s military routinely transfer employees between jobs since this sacrifices job specific human capital the practice is puzzling this article shows that regular job transfers may be part of an optimal incentive scheme in organizations plagued by the ratchet effect the ratchet effect arises when an employer is uncertain as to the productivity of the various positions or jobs within an organization workers in highly productive jobs then have an incentive to disguise the productivity of their jobs by expending low effort and producing low output this avoids having the employer construct more demanding remuneration schemes once the high productivity of a job becomes known job transfers break the link between current performance and future incentive schemes and hence remove the incentive stifling implications of the ratchet effect this article examines the tradeoff between providing more effective incentives via job transfers and the accompanying sacrifice of job specific human capital establishes conditions under which job transfers are optimal and develops comparative static results

the british electricity experiment the privatization of the electricity supply industry esi in britain which began 1990 is in itself an unremarkable event much of the esi is privately owned in several european countries and in the united states and the u k privatization program has embraced utilities since 1984 when british telecom was privatized the thing that is remarkable about recent policy toward the industry is the radical nature of the regulatory reform accompanying privatization a vertically integrated administered generation and transmission structure was replaced overnight on march 31 1990 by one that is deintegrated and market based generation and transmission have been separated and there has been an attempt to establish competition in generation a number of countries have been moving gradually in the direction of encouraging competition but nowhere else have such dramatic changes been implemented so quickly

efficient and nearly efficient partnerships this paper shows in two ways that the degree to which free riding diminishes the performance of deterministic partnerships may be less than has been generally thought first a necessary and sufficient condition is provided for a partnership to sustain full efficiency it implies that many non trivial partnerships sustain efficiency such as generic ones with finite action spaces and neoclassical ones with leontief technologies second approximate efficiency is shown to be achievable in a large class of partnerships including ones with smooth and monotonic production and disutility functions approximate efficiency is achieved by mixed strategy equilibria one partner takes with small probability an inefficient action the degree to which efficiency is approximated is restricted only by the amount of liability the partners can bear nonetheless their equilibrium payments are not arbitrarily large

vertical and horizontal intra industry trade a cross industry analysis for the united kingdom a large theoretical literature has emerged directed at explaining the presence of intra industry trade iit one of the distinctions which comes out of these models is that between horizontal iit where goods are differentiated by attributes and vertical iit where goods are differentiated by quality in this paper horizontal and vertical iit in u k trade are disentangled using a unit value dispersion criterion and a range of industry characteristics the paper not only points up the relative importance of vertical and horizontal iit in the united kingdom it also demonstrates how a failure to separate them out can impact on the interpretation of empirical results copyright 1995 by royal economic society

availibility of renewable energy sources in turkey current situation potential government policies and the eu perspective abstract this study aims to explore the availability and potential of renewable energy sources in turkey as well as assessing related government policies financial and environmental aspects of renewable energy projects turkey is a country which has the highest hydropower wind and geothermal energy potential among european countries as a european union eu candidate several incentives were developed in turkey for electricity generation from renewable energy sources by the enactment of law no 5346 in 2005 which was later restructured by law no 6094 in 2010 the most important ones are ease of land acquisition and feed in tariffs which promise purchasing of electricity generated and domestic manufacturing of equipment by the private companies with a price of 5 30 9 69 and 0 3 2 55 c kwh respectively depending on the type of the renewable and the equipment however feed in tariff amounts take reservoir area into account instead of installed capacity for hydroelectric power plants moreover environmental impact assessment eia report is not mandatory for all renewable energy plants according to the multi criteria analysis tool developed in this study to evaluate the renewable energy source res technologies the most appropriate renewable energy alternative for turkey is biomass simply because of the highest social benefit among others

estimating the impact of efficiency standards on the uncertainty of the northwest electric system the uncertainty of the northwest electric system was the subject of a recent study for the bonneville power administration system uncertainty was described along two dimensions over a twenty year planning period one dimension was uncertainty in the demand for electricity the second dimension was uncertainty in the price of electricity the study focused on the impact of efficiency standards that would reduce the electricity used in new buildings and appliances many planners expect that the standards would reduce the long term uncertainty in electricity demand some planners have come to realize that the standards could also reduce the long term uncertainty in the price of electricity this paper explains the case study approach to estimating the magnitude of these reductions in uncertainty i describe the analytical approach and the key findings of the study and conclude with a discussion of the study s impact on decision making in the region

the impact of investors risk aversion on the performances of capacity remuneration mechanisms abstract this paper analyses the impact of risk aversion on the performances of capacity remuneration mechanisms with investors facing an uncertain peak load three market designs are studied for this purpose a competitive energy only market a capacity market and a strategic reserve mechanism a simulation model based on system dynamics is developed in order to represent investment decisions and analyse the behaviour of each market design risk aversion is modelled through the computation of conditional value at risk the results are discussed in terms of impact on the reliability ability to limit shortages and cost total generation costs of the studied market designs when comparing the three market designs the capacity market seems to be the least affected by the introduction of risk aversion both in terms of cost and reliability this result suggests that implementing a capacity market is preferable in order to deal with the adverse effects of risk aversion given the simulations and parameters that were used

information management in incentive problems we extend the standard procurement model to examine how an agent is optimally induced to acquire valuable planning information before he choose an unobservable level of cost reducing effort concer

reforms in the french power system from weak contestability to effective competition abstract one way to introduce competition in the power industries is to preserve the integration of the incumbent companies and to organise the access of potential competitors to the network on a fair basis but the combination of hierarchy and bilateral contracts between entrants ipp candidates foreign producers intermediaries suppliers and consumers appears to be unstable because of permanent tensions between the incumbent s dominant position and fair competition moreover in an institutional environment enlarged by the supranational powers of the european union heterogeneity of rules and structures between quasi integrated power industries and decentralised competitive ones are sources of permanent questioning the paper analyses the stability of the recent reform of the french power industry the extreme integration of which being deeply rooted in the french institutional peculiarities has been weakly affected by the directive 96 92 transcription two institutional scenarios are defined which give a different weight to two competition paradigms in conflicts one pertains to the industrial policy which inclines to preserve hierarchy in the national area to gain national champion s competitive advantages in the european as in the global field and the other to the neo classical paradigm of effective competition in the first scenario the integration of the industrial organisation is preserved but with transparent grid access rules supposed to create an actual market contestability and the playing field is the continental europe on which national champions compete in the second one the french industrial organisation has to conform to the competitive model with vertical and horizontal disintegration and creation of a power exchange market for promoting competition but this scenario is heavily strained by the institutional determinism of the nuclear legacy the future reality should be set between these two scenarios

a real options evaluation model for the diffusion prospects of new renewable power generation technologies this study presents a policy planning model that integrates learning curve information on renewable power generation technologies into a dynamic programming formulation featuring real options analysis the model recursively evaluates a set of investment alternatives on a year by year basis thereby taking into account that the flexibility to delay an irreversible investment expenditure can profoundly affect the diffusion prospects of renewable power generation technologies price uncertainty is introduced through stochastic processes for the average wholesale price of electricity and for input fuel prices demand for electricity is assumed to be increasingly price sensitive as the electricity market deregulation proceeds reflecting new options of consumers to react to electricity price changes such as time of use pricing unbundled electricity services and choice of supplier the empirical analysis is based on data for the turkish electricity supply industry apart from general implications for policy making it provides some interesting insights about the impact of uncertainty and technical change on the diffusion of various emerging renewable energy technologies

supplying information to facilitate price discrimination the authors examine the incentive of a seller to allow potential buyers to acquire private information about their tastes for the seller s product improved private information for buyers enables the seller to segment the market and charge higher prices to high value buyers however improved information can also provide rents to buyers in a variety of settings this tradeoff is optimally resolved at one of two extremes either buyers are supplied with the best available knowledge of their tastes or no information is supplied by the seller copyright 1994 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

clean and secure power supply a system dynamics based appraisal abstract across the world the electricity industry is changing with the advent of renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power as these are exposed to intermittency seasonality and global climate variation policy makers concerns are now shifting towards security of supply in fact the industry confronts three conflicting goals security of supply competitive prices to customers and environmental protection in this context and given the multiple uncertainties of technology transformation this paper uses modelling based scenario analysis to investigate different extreme and plausible futures simulation is used to analyse policies aimed at increasing the penetration of renewables and to explore how these energy sources may affect system reliability this paper explores the effect of incorporating renewables in colombia where a large hydroelectric component has led to insufficient electricity being available during droughts and to high electricity price volatility though not intuitive at first glance this paper shows that renewables may contribute to i increased security of supply through complementarity e g it does not rain when the sun shines ii reduced price volatility in the medium term and iii increased industry sustainability

competitive energy markets and nuclear power can we have both do we want either in 1987 the uk conservative party was re elected promising to transform the electricity industry into a privatised competitive industry and to promote an expansion of nuclear power fulfilling both objectives was not possible the nuclear plants were withdrawn from the sale and plans to build new plants were abandoned but privatisation proceeded in 2007 the labour government began a new attempt to build nuclear plants to operate in the competitive electricity market promising that no subsidies would be offered to them by 2010 the utilities that were planning to build nuclear plants were beginning to suggest that support in some form would be needed if they were to build new plants more surprisingly the energy regulator ofgem cast doubt on whether a competitive wholesale electricity market would provide security of supply in 1990 the uk government opted for a competitive electricity market over expanding nuclear power now the option of opting for a competitive electricity market may not exist however this might not leave the way open for new nuclear plants the expected cost of power from new nuclear plants is now so high that no more than one or two heavily subsidised plants will be built

regulation and development of the argentinean gas market gas markets are becoming increasingly important around the world and the long term evolution of these markets is of strategic importance for many countries this makes it essential to understand how regulation and intervention in these markets affects the long term prospect for the secure supply of gas we use argentina as a case to illustrate some of the issues and consequences of gas regulation argentina is a country that has had a significant increase in the use of gas over the years and where a potential gas deficit looms large in the present and the future based on a simulation model developed to understand the supply of gas in argentina we discuss how regulation will influence the long term supply of gas in both argentina and surrounding countries using the model we develop a series of scenarios to highlight the consequences of different current and possible future interventions in the market by the regulator finally we discuss short term regulatory options to reduce the impact of a gas deficit and the possibility of securing the long term supply of gas in argentina

sensitivity of reserve margin to factors influencing investment behaviour in the electricity market of england and wales abstract the electricity generation and distribution industries of england and wales have recently undergone major re structuring as part of the privatization process of taking them out of the public sector on the generation side three major companies have been created which compete both with each other and with the new independent companies who are expected to enter the market trading between generators and distributors is controlled centrally by a pool system which attempts to ensure the optimal operation of the system in the short term and gives a pricing signal for longer term investment this pricing signal depends upon an a priori loss of load probability this paper is intended to provide insights into how the investment in capacity for generation could evolve according to various regulatory conditions economic assumptions degrees of competition and the strategic behaviour of the separate companies using a system dynamics approach a simulation model of investment is developed to generate insights into the volatility of the reserve margin variations in the loss of load probability and the various market share scenarios the degree of uncertainty in the demand the amount of information exchange between competitors and the degree of foresight in planning are considered as well as different financial or market share objectives for companies

system dynamic modeling of energy savings in the us food industry abstract in the united states the food industry alone accounts for approximately 19 of the total energy consumed the objective of this study is to forecast the food related energy consumption and evaluate policy alternatives for reducing food related energy consumption in the medium and long term influential factors of energy consumption in the food industry include population growth rate gdp agriculture s share of gdp food waste technologies and agricultural investment based on the life cycle of the food industry five life stages were considered agricultural production industrial processing and packaging transportation wholesale and retail and household in this study based on the causal relationships and feedback loops between these factors and the energy consumed for each life stage a system dynamics sd model was designed to simulate the situation for the us food industry policy options of reducing waste percentage and improving industrial energy productivity are incorporated for building the energy use mitigation scenarios by implementing the integrated mitigation scenarios a 9 43 reduction in total food system energy consumption can be attained in 2030

the politics of regulation in the turkish electricity market abstract turkey began reforming the electricity market in 2001 the regulatory reform aimed to liberalize the market however the institutional and political structure was not ready for creating an efficiently working competition the independent regulator did not have both experience and will to direct the industry to a more competitive environment currently the reform has slowed down and political preferences drive the industry this paper studies the reasons for the slowdown in the reform efforts by focusing on the relationships between the government judiciary and the independent regulator we conclude that strategic behaviors of players in the market including the judiciary the government and the regulator have made the introduction of competition to the market more costly

the merit order effect a detailed analysis of the price effect of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in germany the german feed in support of electricity generation from renewable energy sources has led to high growth rates of the supported technologies critics state that the costs for consumers are too high an important aspect to be considered in the discussion is the price effect created by renewable electricity generation this paper seeks to analyse the impact of privileged renewable electricity generation on the electricity market in germany the central aspect to be analysed is the impact of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices the results generated by an agent based simulation platform indicate that the financial volume of the price reduction is considerable in the short run this gives rise to a distributional effect which creates savings for the demand side by reducing generator profits in the case of the year 2006 the volume of the merit order effect exceeds the volume of the net support payments for renewable electricity generation which have to be paid by consumers

economic perspectives on privatization despite being one of the most fundamental issues in political economy the question of the appropriate boundary between public and private enterprise received relatively little attention in mainstream economic analysis until quite recently in the 1980s however programs of ownership reform were started in many developed and developing countries dramatic though some of these policies have been they are likely to be overshadowed in the 1990s by even greater privatization in the reforming socialist economies the opening sections of this paper are organized around three broad and interrelated questions how does ownership matter for the efficiency of enterprise performance what is the role for privatization in financing public debts and deficits what are the distributional and political implications of privatization finally we examine privatization in practice in three countries britain chile and poland

objectives and incentives evidence from the privatisation of great britain s power plants abstract does privatization increase plant productivity because the private owner s objective is different or because they are better able to control management and is privatization sufficient to improve productivity or is it only effective in combination with competition we answer these questions using the quasi experiment of great britain s electricity industry privatization to separate the effect of a change in objectives from a change in incentives we assume that the former only affects labor but not fuel productivity and assuming that effective competition was only introduced after privatization we are able to separately identify the effects of privatization and competition we find that privatization increased labor but not fuel productivity evidence for the importance of objectives there is no evidence that the introduction of effective competition after privatization increased labor or fuel productivity evidence that privatization increases productivity by itself

assessing emissions mitigation energy policy under integrated supply and demand analysis the colombian case the effects of greenhouse gases on climate variation set policy challenges for the energy industry the largest greenhouse gas contributor globally in this context the energy industry is being subjected to reforms focussing on the environment internalisation of emission costs and the promotion of cleaner technologies to overcome the challenges posed by the emission of greenhouse gases governments have implemented mitigation policies in the power supply industries most policy instruments include either financial incentives or goals and standards and these generate impacts on electricity prices and consumer behaviour this paper models policies effects on prices and demand through an integrated demand and supply analysis for the colombian case while simulation of carbon taxes shows important reductions of fossil fuelled power capacity a feed in tariff policy promotes clean technologies though not significantly reducing use of fossil technologies when applied simultaneously policy has a greater impact on both emission reductions and the diffusion of clean technologies while only increasing electricity prices slightly even when price elasticity of demand is low such policies may have a significant effect on the penetration of renewables and emissions furthermore this structured modelling of policy helps explain how the ultimate intended goal sustainable emissions reduction might be achieved

the environmental paradox in generation how south america is gradually becoming more dependent on thermal generation there has been an increasing focus on global warming emission of green house gases ghg and the problems this might create in this article we review the trend in sustainable and renewable electricity generation in south america where the generation portfolio increasingly depends on thermal generation in particular gas south america is a region that has relatively low emissions but the current development is not desirable in environmental terms we analyze the underlying reasons for this development which is related to security of supply deregulation and the cost of renewable energy we review and discuss the policies to promote renewables in the region we analyze the potential advantages and drawbacks of different types of market interventions such as direct subsidies that create potentially strong market distortions more sophisticated market interventions that might be less intrusive but not necessarily as effective as e g firm energy markets we also review market based solutions such as the clean market mechanism and its potential and the use of renewable electricity in non interconnected zones which might be one of the most economically attractive applications of renewables however without a stronger and more aggressive intervention from the governments in the region it is unlikely that the increase in thermal generation can be stopped

preemptive patenting and the persistence of monopoly this article takes a different tack and inquires whether institutions such as the patent system create opportunities for firms with monopoly power to maintain their monopoly power the results apply to other situations such as brand identification spatial location and capacity expansion which share the characteristic that early or preemptive actions may lower the returns to potential competitors

tradable emission rights and strategic interaction the use of tradable emission rights as environmental policy instruments may affect the conditions for strategic interaction between regulated firms and thus have implications for competition policy this paper presents an analysis of how and under what conditions emission rights can be used strategically by oligopolistic firms for predatory and exclusionary purposes

how capacity mechanisms drive technology choice in power generation the case of colombia abstract colombia enacted its first legal framework for promoting alternative energies in 2001 and a second framework in 2014 since the generation technology mix has not changed since 2000 there is a need to understand how regulation and market structure affect the adoption of technologies in this paper we address the question of what has been the impact of the capacity mechanisms adopted during the 2000s on technology choices for power generation in colombia our approach is to analyze the evolution of market structure and regulation we found that regulatory uncertainty and low prices drove a surge of small hydro plants during the 2000s during the 2010s the new regulatory focus on reliability of supply has resulted in increased coal fueled generation and large hydro this increased reliance on hydro power can further delay the entry of renewable technologies and the diversification of the colombian portfolio

information incentives and organizational mode we examine the choice of organizational mode for a two stage production process wherein cost realizations at each stage are observed only by the producing party when these costs are positively correlated the principal prefers to undertake second stage production herself when the correlation is negative and sufficiently small she will prefer that the agent who performs the first stage also perform the second for large negative correlation either mode might be preferred when costs are uncorrelated the principal is indifferent between modes

market power in tradable emission markets a laboratory testbed for emission trading in port phillip bay victoria abstract in theory competitive emission permit markets minimize total abatement costs permit markets are often imperfectly competitive however and may be thin and dominated by large firms the dominant firm s could exercise market power and increase other firms costs of pollution control while reducing their own emission control costs this paper reports a testbed laboratory experiment to examine whether a dominant firm can exercise market power in a permit market organized using the double auction trading institution our parameters approximate the abatement costs of sources in a proposed tradable emissions market for the reduction of nitrogen in the port phillip watershed in victoria australia we vary across treatments the initial allocation of permits to sources so that in one treatment the seller of permits is a monopolist and in another treatment the market is duopolistic we also vary the information that subjects have about the number and abatement costs of their competitors we find that prices and seller profits are higher and efficiency is lower on average in the monopoly sessions compared with the duopoly sessions but the differences are not substantial and are not statistically significant due to pronounced variation across sessions moreover prices profits and transaction volumes are usually much closer to the competitive equilibrium ce than the monopoly equilibrium

a dynamic simulation model for assessing the overall impact of incentive policies on power system reliability costs and environment abstract the liberalization of power markets has entailed dramatic changes in power system planning worldwide the inception of new alternative technologies smart grids and distributed generation and storage is expected to make system planning even more challenging government policies still play a major role in the evolution of a country s power generation mix even in those countries with liberalized markets this paper presents a system dynamics model aimed at assessing the overall technical economic and environmental impact of renewable energy incentives and capacity payment policies the model has been used to simulate spain s power industry in order to assess the impact of electric power policies with the goal of getting insights regarding how to achieve an optimum power generation mix the main conclusions of the present paper are i the necessity of specific regulatory actions in spain in order to keep adequate reliability levels avoid price spikes and boom and bust investment cycles as well as to deploy specific technologies ii the fact that capacity payments are a better instrument for keeping adequate reserve margins and avoiding power price spikes than renewable energy incentives and iii the evidence that both instruments entail additional system costs over the base case scenario

a decision support tool for the analysis of pricing investment and regulatory processes in a decentralized electricity market abstract after the liberalization of the electricity generation industry capacity expansion decisions are made by multiple self oriented power companies unlike the centralized environment decision making of market participants is now guided by price signal feedbacks and by an imperfect foresight of the future market conditions and competitor actions that they will face in such an environment decision makers need to better understand long term dynamics of the supply and demand sides of the power market in this study a system dynamics model is developed to better understand and analyze the decentralized and competitive electricity market dynamics in the long run the developed simulation model oversees a 20 year planning horizon it includes a demand module a capacity expansion module a power generation module an accounting and finance module various competitors a regulatory body and a bidding mechanism many features singularities and tools of decentralized markets such as capacity withholding enforced divestment long term contracts price elastic demands incentives disincentives are also incorporated into the model public regulators and power companies are potential users of the model for learning and decision support in policy design and strategic planning results of scenario analysis are presented to illustrate potential use of the model

incentives for renewable energy in reformed latin american electricity markets the colombian case abstract given the importance of renewable energy sources for reducing the threat of global climatic change without compromising economic development this paper explores regulatory alternatives that may facilitate the introduction of renewable energy in the colombian electricity market the analysis is based on a simulation model of the electricity market that represents the behaviour of the agents involved and their decision to invest according to proposed incentives the possible expansion of renewable energy depending on different incentives is examined this research is carried out in the latin american context and accordingly we present the exploitation potential of renewable sources for electricity generation in the region this paper shows how restructuring electricity markets such as the colombian and others in latin america may be an efficient means to promote the use of renewable energy

simulating power integration in latin america to assess challenges opportunities and threats abstract integration of electricity markets started to spread under the world wide trend to economic liberalization while some regions are managing better than others lessons both political and technical highlight challenges ahead that need to be overcome since the early 2000s panama colombia ecuador and peru have decided to integrate their electricity markets eventually creating an enormous latin american electricity exchange ranging from mexico to chile this poses opportunities and threats to the region as it involves cooperation trust and the will to overcome difficulties that may arise in this direction we developed a system dynamics model linked to an iterative algorithm to assess the likely effects of integration on both system expansion and security of supply the model helps us understand the logic of the long term system behavior under different policies assuming market coupling as the dispatch mechanism based on theoretical grounds and after analyzing simulation results under different scenarios we conclude that the integration of electricity markets may render important opportunities regarding security of supply and efficiency and consequently energy might be supplied at lower prices using cleaner technologies however benefits largely depend on policy regulation and technical issues

evaluating the effect of technology transformation on the electricity utility industry abstract the technology shift from fossil fuelled systems to renewable energies has been promoted by governments with the purpose of decarbonising the power industry however rapid technology progress has prompted disruptive changes that transformed market structures incumbent electricity utilities particularly those based on fossil fuel plant are shifting from their stable and predictable situation to confront challenges from those that offer alternative energy services in this new environment the industry will benefit from mid to long term sector foresight the paper studies the potential impact of renewable energy sources res on electricity systems specifically on the generation and distribution businesses for this purpose a fairly detailed and integrated supply and demand based system dynamics model has been built to quantify the extent of their potential impact the model disaggregates the household sector which may generate a significant part of its electricity using rooftop solar energy this is illustrated by examining a utility engaged in the generation and distribution businesses in the colombian electricity market through simulation runs this paper concludes that subject to policy and all other things remaining equal solar rooftop generation is a major threat for utilities while the generation business is most affected in the short term the distribution business is the one most impacted in the long term and jointly they may induce the utility death spiral

uk local authority engagement with the energy service company esco model key characteristics benefits limitations and considerations abstract this paper explores how some uk local authorities las have opted to engage with the energy service company esco model in a bid to enhance their influence over local energy system change and help them to deliver on their political public good objectives three common approaches to la esco model engagement are outlined including the 1 la owned arm s length model 2 private sector owned concession agreement model and 3 community owned and run model the la s decision to establish its own esco or alternatively enter into a partnership with another predominantly depends on its willingness to expose itself to risk the level of strategic control it desires and the resources it has at its disposal however the business case is contingent on the extent to which the national policy and regulatory framework facilitates and obligates las to play an active energy governance role stronger alignment of local and national energy agendas through communication and coordination between different governance actors could help to remove critical barriers to la esco engagement and their wider energy governance activities

an improved mechanism for capacity payment based on system dynamics modeling for investment planning in competitive electricity environment many countries have experienced restructuring in their electric utilities this restructuring has presented the power industries with new challenges the most important of which is long term investment planning under uncertain conditions this paper presents an improved mechanism for capacity payment the mechanism has been investigated based on system dynamic modeling in our proposed mechanism generators will recover a part of their investment through capacity payment while the payment for any plant remains constant during the operation period it depends on the investment needed to build it the main factors affecting long term planning have been considered in our model the approach can be used to investigate the effects of fixed as well as variable capacity payment in market investment we used the probability density function of load as a new concept to calculate average market price delays in unit constructions estimation of demand and market capacity growth during construction periods have been included in the proposed algorithm as parameters which affect the regulator s decision for changing capacity payment the model can be used by regulators to investigate strategies that may affect the fluctuations in the market

effects of renewables on the stylized facts of electricity prices abstract many countries around the world have increased their renewable installed capacity due to a greater awareness of climate concerns under this new framework with renewables being among the main generation sources the literature warns of a dramatic change in price behaviour some of the most commonly claimed effects of having a significant proportion of renewable generating sources in the total electricity production mix include i a systematic decrease in overall wholesale market prices ii a higher occurrence of price jumps and iii a significant increase in price volatility the goal of the present study is to test whether these changes in price behaviour have actually come about to do so we focus on the spanish day ahead electricity market as a paradigmatic example in line with the literature it is found a statistically negative relationship between the renewable generation share and the day ahead market marginal prices as well we have obtained statistical confirmation of the fact that renewables generation share volatility is transferred to price volatility though similarly to other generation technologies finally in contrast to the general belief that the introduction of renewable generation would give rise to extreme positive prices according to our results increases in renewables generation share reduce the probability of upward jumps in prices the results obtained are of interest for portfolio managers practitioners and regulators

a renegotiation proof mechanism for a principal agent model with moral hazard and adverse selection in this article i shall analyze a principal agent model with moral hazard and adverse selection i show that for a large class of environments communication has no value to the principal and that he cannot do better than to average over the different types of agents this observation is then used to derive a renegotiation proof mechanism

power sector reform in orissa an ex post analysis of the causal factors abstract from the early 1990s dramatic changes have been taking place in the structure of electricity supply industry esi worldwide the primary reasons for electricity sector reform has however been different for industrialised and developing countries the objective of this paper is to study and identify various factors leading to power sector reform in developing countries the restructuring of orissa state electricity board in india was used as a case study in identifying the various factors the factors that result in implementation of restructuring are a contextual factors they are the primary drivers for initiating reform the performance of the utility and the conditionalities of the lending agencies are contextual factors b trigger factor it is the determining factor that creates a compelling necessity to undergo restructuring the inability of the government to continue to support the utility acts as the trigger factor c facilitating factors they act as facilitators for initiating reform support of the government absence of a powerful lobby and the support of the top management are facilitating factors

dynamic analysis of various investment incentives and regional capacity assignment in iranian electricity market this paper develops a system dynamics model to analyze the impacts of different kinds of capacity payment as investment incentive mechanisms in iranian electricity market since it is aimed that the incurred capital and operating costs of generation technologies be recovered in iranian electricity pool the noncompetitive capacity payment mechanism has been introduced for this purpose in order to encourage new investments in electric power generation system in the current mechanism the capacity payments are designated to the generating units in the whole country electricity market an annual base value of capacity payment is proposed based on recovering the capital cost of a benchmark generation technology this value is altered according to the operational reserve in the day ahead electricity market this supporting policy is simulated and analyzed in the proposed dynamic framework in order to track the trend of new investments in the iranian electricity market the feasibility study of implementing the regional capacity assignment is the main focus of this paper different possible regulating policies such as floating rates for capacity payment and electricity price cap the multiple capacity payments to various technologies and the regional electricity market with territorial capacity allocation are examined in order to investigate the consequences and performances of different decisions and policies in the capacity investment of iranian electricity market

modeling technology adoption as an irreversible investment under uncertainty the case of the turkish electricity supply industry this paper studies energy conversion technology adoption in the electricity supply sector from the perspective of irreversible investments under uncertainty and with a particular interest in environmental sustainability we develop a dynamic technology adoption model that is firmly rooted in economic theory and that takes important determinants of optimal investment in available technologies e g life cycle capital and operation cost explicitly into account uncertainty is introduced for the demand for peak load capacity unit generation costs and for the average electricity price we test the model empirically by applying it to data for the turkish power supply industry the model guided optimal investment schedule based on net present value considerations exhibits significant deviations from the actual investment outcome we find that the increased adoption of natural gas fired power generation technologies in turkey in recent years while contributing to environmental sustainability has had doubtful merits from an investor s perspective