what drives deregulation economics and politics of the relaxation of bank branching restrictions this paper investigates private interest public interest and political institutional theories of regulatory change to analyze state level deregulation of bank branching restrictions using a hazard model we find that interest group factors related to the relative strength of potential winners large banks and small bank dependent firms and losers small banks and the rival insurance firms can explain the timing of branching deregulation across states during the last quarter century the same factors also explain congressional voting on interstate branching deregulation while we find some support for each theory the private interest approach provides the most compelling overall explanation of our results

the political economy of corporate control and labor rents in a democracy a political majority can influence both the corporate governance structure and the return to human and financial capital we argue that when financial wealth is sufficiently concentrated there is political support for high labor rents and a strong governance role for banks or large investors the model is consistent with the great reversal phenomenon in the first half of the twentieth century we offer evidence that in several financially developed countries a financially weakened middle class became concerned about labor income risk associated with free markets and supported a more corporatist financial system

agricultural research bias in nicaragua the case of beans abstract the government of nicaragua has favored export crops in agricultural research although an improvement in the production technology of staples eaten by the poor could produce large and equitable benefits in society the government of nicaragua has underinvested in agricultural research on staples in this article we review nicaragua s bean research and show how it has paled relative to export crops even during the sandinista years bean research stagnated and showed urban biases in the conclusion we explain why research on beans did not produce good results

the politics of financial development evidence from trade liberalization incumbents in various industries have different incentives to promote or oppose financial development changes in the relative strength of promoter and opponent industries thus result in changes in the political equilibrium level of financial development we conduct an event study using a sample of 41 countries that liberalized trade during 1970 to 2000 and show that the strengthening of promoter relative to opponent industries resulting from liberalization is a good predictor of subsequent financial development the benefits of developing the financial system are insufficient for financial development and rents in particular hands appear to be necessary to achieve it copyright c 2008 by the american finance association

the finance growth nexus evidence from bank branch deregulation this paper provides evidence that financial markets can directly affect economic growth by studying the relaxation of bank branch restrictions in the united states we find that the rates of real per capita growth in income and output increase significantly following intrastate branch reform we also argue that the observed changes in growth are the result of changes in the banking system improvements in the quality of bank lending not increased volume of bank lending appear to be responsible for faster growth

crossing the lines the conditional relation between exchange rate exposure and stock returns in emerging and developed markets this paper examines the importance of exchange rate exposure in the return generating process for a large sample of non financial firms from 37 countries we argue that the effect of exchange rate exposure on stock returns is conditional and show evidence of a significant return impact to firm level currency exposures when conditioning on the exchange rate change we further show that the realized return to exposure is directly related to the size and sign of the exchange rate change suggesting fluctuations in exchange rates as a source of time variation in currency return premia for the entire sample the return impact ranges from 1 2 to 3 3 per unit of currency exposure and it is larger for firms in emerging markets compared to developed markets overall the results indicate that foreign exchange rate exposure estimates are economically meaningful despite the fact that individual time series results are noisy and many exposures are not statistically significant and that exchange rate exposure plays an important role in generating cross sectional return variation moreover we show that the relation between exchange rate exposure and stock returns is more consistent with a cash flow effect than a discount rate effect

orthogonalized regressors and spurious precision with an application to currency exposures abstract regressions often use pre orthogonalized regressors prior to the main regression an independent variable x i is regressed upon the other regressor s and its residuals are used in the right hand side of the main regression instead of the raw variable itself for example the exposure of a stock s return to exchange rate changes is conventionally estimated by a regression and often the market return is included as an additional regressor by first orthogonalizing the market return on the exchange rate in a regression separate from the main one one seems to have the best of both worlds the market factor cannot subsume part of the exposure present in a stock s return and the standard error se of the estimate beats both the simple and the multiple regression se s this last effect is illusory since the simple regression and its two step variant with the orthogonalization produce the same exposure estimate given the sample their precision must be identical too technically the source of the problem is that the uncertainty about the market s exposure estimate is left out of the calculated se in published work the calculated error variances should be corrected upward by 20 100 percent

international competition and exchange rate shocks a cross country industry analysis of stock returns this article systematically examines the importance of exchange rate movements and industry competition for stock returns common shocks to industries across countries are more important than competitive shocks due to changes in exchange rates weekly exchange rate shocks explain almost nothing of the relative performance of industries using returns measured over longer horizons the importance of exchange rate shocks increases slightly and the importance of industry common shocks increases more substantially both industry and exchange rate shocks are more important for industries that produce internationally traded goods but the importance of these shocks is economically small for these industries as well economists journalists and politicians around the world argue that some of the industries in their country compete vigorously with the same industries in other countries and that exchange rate shocks affect their competitiveness in the united states it is routinely stated that some u s industries compete with japanese industries and that a depreciation of the yen is bad for these u s industries and good for the rival japanese industries if the yen falls trade tensions could intensify between the u s and japan as autos and machinery from japan gain a competitive edge 1 further the exchange rate literature shows that exchange rate shocks lead to persistent deviations from purchasing power parity 2 froot and klemperer 1989 and knetter 1989 1993 among others demonstrate that deviations from purchasing power parity lead to sharp changes in price markups and profit margins for exporters

finance firm size and growth the authors examine whether financial development boosts the growth of small firms more than large firms and hence provides information on the mechanisms through which financial development fosters aggregate economic growth they define an industry s technological firm size as the firm size implied by industrial specific production technologies including capital intensities and scale economies using cross industry cross country data the results indicate that financial development exerts a disproportionately large effect on the growth of industries that are technologically more dependent on small firms this suggests that financial development accelerates economic growth by removing growth constraints on small firms and also implies that financial development has sectoral as well as aggregate growth ramifications

privatization in eastern europe irreversibility and critical mass effects abstract this paper proposes a model to shed light on two important policy features of privatization in central and eastern europe the idea of a necessary critical mass of privatization on one hand and the great difficulties encountered in the actual privatization process on the other the model incorporates a positive externality related to the size of the private sector multiple equilibria may arise for political and economic reasons policies of free distribution are analysed with the model they may eliminate the danger of policy reversals due to excess unemployment but may at the same time increase the relative cost of restructuring leading in some cases to pareto inferior outcomes

the response of multinationals foreign exchange rate exposure to macroeconomic news abstract we use intraday data to estimate the daily foreign exchange exposure of u s multinationals and show that macroeconomic news affects these firms foreign exchange exposure news creates a substantial shift in the joint distribution of stock and exchange rate returns that has both a transitory and a persistent component for example a positive domestic demand surprise as reflected in higher than expected nonfarm payroll increases the value of the low exposure domestic activities and results in a persistent decrease in foreign exchange exposure

wall street capitol hill and k street political influence and financial regulation abstractthis paper explores the link between the political influence of the financial industry and financial regulation in the run up to the global financial crisis we construct a detailed database documenting the lobbying activities campaign contributions and political connections of the financial industry from 1999 to 2006 in the united states we find evidence that spending on lobbying by the financial industry and network connections between lobbyists and legislators were positively associated with the probability of a legislator changing positions in favor of deregulation the evidence also suggests that hiring lobbyists who had worked for legislators in the past enhanced this link

corporate financial policies and performance around currency crises this paper studies firm level leverage and performance measures before and after a currency crisis using data from 17 countries we show that prior to a crisis companies that expect to benefit from currency depreciations increase their leverage more than companies that are expected to be harmed by the depreciation profitability and financial fragility ratios display consistent patterns we provide evidence that the asian crisis is different from the previous european and latin american ones in asia all firms become more fragile after the crisis and their profitability declines and leverage increases further whereas elsewhere there are clear signs of recovery after a crisis occurs

financial markets the pattern of industrial specialization and comparative advantage evidence from oecd countries due to underlying technological and organizational differences industries differ in their need for external finance since services provided by the financial sector are largely immobile across countries the pattern of industrial specialization should be influenced by the level of financial development among oecd countries we find a strong causal effect of the financial sector on industrial specialization further the financial sector is a source of comparative advantage in a way consistent with the hecksher ohlin vanek model results are also presented on which aspects of financial systems are important for specialization and comparative advantage

terms of trade policy in a model with non produced means of production abstract terms of trade policies between agriculture and industry are analysed in a two sector sraffian model if both sectors use only produced means of production and labor it can be shown that an improvement in agriculture s terms of trade always leads to higher profits in agriculture however when non produced means of production are introduced an exogenous increase in the relative price of agricultural commodities may cause the rate of profit in agriculture to increase remain constant or even decrease two preconditions are identified for the case in which a favorable movement in agriculture s terms of trade decreases that sector s profit rate first at least one quality of competitively priced land must be scarce relative to the total output required second the initial economy wide rate of profit must be positive finally the effect of an input subsidy used in conjunction with terms of trade policy is considered it is shown that under certain conditions reducing the price of production inputs can also cause profits to fall and rents to rise in agriculture

the profitability concentration relation market power or efficiency industrial economists have been studying the relationship between profitability and concentration using cross industry samples for many years now however as sometimes happens once it appeared that some consensus had been achieved with few exceptions market concentration and industry profitability are positively correlated peltzman i977 p 229 people began to question the interpretation of those results in particular demsetz e g i973 i974 and others suggested that rather than concentration market power leading to higher prices and profits the causal direction in fact ran from greater efficiency to both higher profits and incidentally to higher concentration our purpose here is to subject these conflicting hypotheses to cross industry empirical test using u k data in order to do this we first develop a model which is sufficiently general to allow for both alternative explanations of a positive concentration profitability correlation in the light of this model we then examine the implications for the within industry relation between market share and firm level profitability more specifically we explore demsetz s claim that the empirical form of this relationship should signal which of the alternative hypotheses is consistent with the between industry profitability concentration correlation our model suggests that in certain special circumstances this claim is partly justified in that it should be possible to assess the relative strengths of the market power and efficiency effects from the within industry relation more generally however factors such as product differentiation and scale economies may seriously impair the information content of the relation with at least a strong suspicion that the estimates will tend to exaggerate the evidence in favour of the efficiency hypothesis in the event our results tend to confirm that for most industries the within industry data offer little conclusive support for either hypothesis but for a not insignificant minority of industries the evidence suggests some support for the view that both efficiency and market power are at work simultaneously our model is detailed in section ii and estimated on u k data in section iii after which we offer a few comments in section iv first however we drovide a backcloth to the later analysis

the dax and the dollar the economic exchange rate exposure of german corporations this paper examines the economic exposure of german corporations to changes in the dm us dollar exchange rate our work contributes to the existing body of literature in the following ways firstly we point out conceptual problems of previous attempts to estimate economic exposure secondly we find that german firms are significantly exposed to changes in the dm us dollar rate however our results are unstable over time

business cycles and the relationship between concentration and price cost margins using a newly constructed panel data base we examine changes in price cost margins in 284 manufacturing industries between 1958 and 1981 a key finding is a dramatic narrowing of the spread between the margins of concentrated and unconcentrated industries over this period we provide evidence that this narrowing is a result of the greater sensitivity of price cost margins in more concentrated industries to demand fluctuations this finding is robust to the inclusion of other industry variables and to measures of import competition the results indicate that cross sectional estimates of the concentration margins relationship are likely to be both biased and misleading

the role of social capital in financial development to identify the effect of social capital on financial development we exploit social capital differences within italy in high social capital areas households are more likely to use checks invest less in cash and more in stock have higher access to institutional credit and make less use of informal credit the effect of social capital is stronger where legal enforcement is weaker and among less educated people these results are not driven by omitted environmental variables since we show that the behavior of movers is still affected by the level of social capital of the province where they were born

law finance and firm growth we investigate how differences in legal and financial systems affect firms use of external financing to fund growth we show that in countries whose legal systems score high on an efficiency index a greater proportion of firms use long term external financing an active though not necessarily large stock market and a large banking sector are also associated with externally financed firm growth the increased reliance on external financing occurs in part because established firms in countries with well functioning institutions have lower profit rates government subsidies to industry do not increase the proportion of firms relying on external financing the corporate finance literature suggests that market imperfections caused by conflicts of interest and informational asymmetries between corporate insiders and investors constrain firms in their ability to fund investment projects the magnitude of these imperfections depends in part on the effectiveness of the legal and financial systems because these systems differ across countries the literature implies that there should exist systematic cross country differences in firms ability to obtain external capital to finance investment in this paper we examine whether the underdevelopment of legal and financial systems does prevent firms in some countries from investing in potentially profitable growth opportunities in particular we focus on the use of long term debt or external equity to fund growth see our earlier work demirgut kunt and maksimovic 1996a which compares firms financial structures in developed and developing countries and finds the greatest difference to be in the provision of long term credit we estimate a financial planning model to obtain the maximum growth rate that each firm in our thirty country sample could attain without access to long term financing we then compare these predicted growth rates to growth rates realized by firms in countries with differing degrees of development in their legal and financial systems our approach enables us to identify specific characteristics of the legal and financial systems that are associated with long term financing of firm growth thus we provide a micro level test of the hypoth

aid policies and growth the authors of this paper use a new database on foreign aid to examine the relationships among foreign aid economic policies and growth of per capita gdp in panel growth regressions for 56 developing countries and 6 four year periods 1970 93 they find that the policies that have a great effect on growth are those related to fiscal surplus inflation and trade openness they construct an index for those three policies and have that index interact with foreign aid they have instruments for both aid and aid interacting with policies they find that aid has a positive impact on growth in developing countries with good fiscal monetary and trade policies in the presence of poor policies aid has no positive effect on growth this result is robust in a variety of specifications which include or exclude middle income countries include or exclude outliers and treat policies as exogenous or endogenous they examine the determinants of policy and find no evidence that aid has systematically affected policies either for good or for ill they estimate an aid allocation equation and show that any tendency for aid to reward good policies has been overwhelmed by donors pursuit of their own strategic interests in a counterfactual they reallocate aid reduce the role of donor interests and increasing the importance of policy such a reallocation would have a large positive effect on developing countries growth rates

urban development excessive entry of firms and wage inequality in developing countries this paper examines the short and long term effects of urbanisation via favourable urban development policies on income distribution and social welfare for a developing country in which the urban manufacturing sector is characterised by imperfect competition and free entry urbanisation shifts rural workers to the highly productive urban sector while causing production in urban firms to expand because of scale economies however urbanisation may worsen wage inequality between skilled and unskilled labour in the short term in the long term urbanisation can attract new firms to the urban sector and favourable urban development policies may result in excessive entry of firms which can amplify wage inequality in the economy this entry amplifying effect is confirmed empirically especially for low and lower middle income countries if the entry effect is not considered the impact of urbanisation on wage inequality could be understated by 13 for low and lower middle income countries

a new database on the structure and development of the financial sector this article introduces a new database of indicators of financial structure and financial development across countries and over time the database is unique in that it combines a wide variety of indicators that measure the size activity and efficiency of financial intermediaries and markets it improves on previous efforts by presenting data on the public share of commercial banks introducing indicators of the size and activity of nonbank financial institutions and constructing measures of the size of bond and primary equity markets this article introduces a new database the first to provide comprehensive measures of the development structure and performance of the financial sector this database is the first to define and construct indicators of the size and activity of nonbank financial intermediaries such as insurance companies pension funds and non deposit money banks it is also the first to include indicators of the size of primary equity markets and primary and secondary bond markets in constructing the database authors carefully deflate measures and match stock and flow variables

capital market imperfections and countercyclical markups theory and evidence during recessions output prices seem to rise relative to wages and raw material prices one explanation is that imperfectly competitive firms compete less aggressively during recessions that is markups of price over marginal cost are countercyclical the authors present a model of countercyclical markups based on capital market imperfections during recessions liquidity constrained firms boost short run profits by raising prices to cut their investments in market share the authors provide evidence from the supermarket industry in support of this theory during regional and macroeconomic recessions more financially constrained supermarket chains raise their prices relative to less financially constrained chains copyright 1996 by american economic association

why is there so little money in u s politics in this paper we argue that campaign contributions are not a form of policy buying but are rather a form of political participation and consumption we summarize the data on campaign spending and show through our descriptive statistics and our econometric analysis that individuals not special interests are the main source of campaign contributions moreover we demonstrate that campaign giving is a normal good dependent upon income and campaign contributions as a percent of gdp have not risen appreciably in over 100 years if anything they have probably fallen we then show that only one in four studies from the previous literature support the popular notion that contributions buy legislators votes finally we illustrate that when one controls for unobserved constituent and legislator effects there is little relationship between money and legislator votes thus the question is not why there is so little money politics but rather why organized interests give at all we conclude by offering potential answers to this question this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

do lenders favor politically connected firms rent provision in an emerging financial market corruption by the politically connected is often blamed for economic ills particularly in less developed economies using a loan level data set of more than 90 000 rms that represents the universe of corporate lending in pakistan between 1996 and 2002 we investigate rents to politically connected rms in banking classifying a rm as political if its director participates in an election we examine the extent nature and economic costs of political rent provision we nd that political rms borrow 45 percent more and have 50 percent higher default rates such preferential treatment occurs exclusively in government banks private banks provide no

economic development as self discovery in the presence of uncertainty about what a country can be good at producing there can be great social value to discovering costs of domestic activities because such discoveries can be easily imitated we develop a general equilibrium framework for a small open economy to clarify the analytical and normative issues we highlight two failures of the laissez faire outcome there is too little investment and entrepreneurship ex ante and too much production diversification ex post optimal policy consists of counteracting these distortions to encourage investments in the modern sector ex ante but to rationalize production ex post we provide some informal evidence on the building blocks of our model

banking on politics when former high ranking politicians become bank directors new data are presented for a large number of countries on how frequently former high ranking politicians become bank directors politician banker connections at this level are relatively rare but their frequency is robustly correlated with many important characteristics of banks and institutions at the micro level banks that are politically connected are larger and more profitable than other banks despite being less leveraged and having less risk at the country level this connectedness is strongly negatively related to economic development controlling for this the analysis finds that the phenomenon is more prevalent where institutions are weaker and governments more powerful but less accountable bank regulation tends to be more pro banker and the banking system less developed where connectedness is higher a benign public interest view is hard to reconcile with these patterns banking sector development institutions political economy

regulatory capture a review this article reviews both the theoretical and empirical literatures on regulatory capture the scope is broad but utility regulation is emphasized i begin by describing the stigler peltzman approach to the economics of regulation i then open the black box of influence and regulatory discretion using a three tier hierarchical agency model under asymmetric information in the spirit of laffont and tirole 1993 i discuss alternative modelling approaches with a view to a richer set of positive predictions including models of common agency revolving doors informational lobbying coercive pressure and influence over committees i discuss empirical work involving capture and regulatory outcomes i also review evidence on the revolving door phenomenon and on the impact that different methods for selecting regulators appear to have on regulatory outcomes the last section contains open questions for future research copyright 2006 oxford university press

foreign exchange exposure of exporting and importing firms abstract the existing literature reports insignificant total exposure for multinational or exporting firms where total exposure incorporates both firm specific and macroeconomic effects we propose a dual effect hypothesis to explain this result which seemingly contradicts conventional wisdom according to our proposed hypothesis firms are affected by both the domestic economy and foreign markets these effects are at least partially offsetting for exporters and additive for importers the resulting predictions of insignificant total exposure for exporters and positive total exposure for importers are borne out in our tests the literature also reports insignificant residual exposure for multinationals or exporting firms where residual exposure estimates the firm specific exposure this result is explained by biases in the residual exposure estimates introduced by the choice of the value weighted market index as the control portfolio we propose an equally weighted portfolio of purely domestic firms as an alternative portfolio to reduce such biases and report significantly negative exposure for exporters and significantly positive exposure for importers as predicted by theory

the real effects of government owned banks evidence from an emerging market using plant level data for brazilian manufacturing firms this paper provides evidence that government control over banks leads to significant political influence over the real decisions of firms i find that firms eligible for government bank lending expand employment in politically attractive regions near elections these expansions are associated with additional favorable borrowing from government banks further these persistent expansions take place just before competitive elections and are associated with lower future employment growth by firms in other regions the analysis suggests that politicians in brazil use bank lending to shift employment towards politically attractive regions and away from unattractive regions

the interest group theory of financial development evidence from regulation abstract we use a new dataset of de jure measures of trade capital account product market and domestic financial regulation for 91 countries from 1973 to 2005 to test rajan and zingales s 2003 interest group theory of financial development in line with the theory we find strong evidence that trade liberalization is a leading indicator of domestic financial liberalization this result is robust to the use of different data frequencies annual 5 year intervals estimation methods ols 2sls system gmm and a check for non linear effects however in contrast to the theory we do not find consistent evidence of an effect of capital account liberalization

creditor rights and the corporate bond market this study examines whether investor protection affects capital markets specifically the development of corporate bond markets versus equity markets using a dataset of 42 countries we show that countries with strong creditor rights have more developed corporate bond markets than equity markets however we find only weak evidence that countries with stronger shareholder protection have more developed equity markets than corporate bond markets additionally we find that the effect of financial reforms on capital markets is strongly dependent on the strength of investor protection and on the associated information disclosure in a given country

food policy and class transformation in revolutionary nicaragua 1979 1986 abstract state grain policy in nicaragua has represented both a short run intervention in food production and a longer run strategy of class transformation the emphasis given peasant production of corn and beans has depended on both considerations and has varied over the seven years of the revolutionary process a class analysis of this policy reveals changing responses by the fsln to external and internal political and economic conditions recent measures point to an acceptance of petty commodity grain production which may or may not be compatible with socialist agricultural development

culture openness and finance abstract differences in culture proxied by differences in religion and language cannot be ignored when examining why investor protection differs across countries we show that a country s principal religion predicts the cross sectional variation in creditor rights better than a country s natural openness to international trade its language its income per capita or the origin of its legal system catholic countries protect the rights of creditors less well than protestant countries a country s natural openness to international trade mitigates the influence of religion on creditor rights culture proxies are also helpful in understanding how investor rights are enforced across countries

finance and the sources of growth the authors evaluate whether the level of development in the banking sector exerts a causal impact on economic growth and its sources total factor productivity growth physical capital accumulation and private saving they use 1 a pure cross country instrumental variable estimator to extract the exogenous component of banking development and 2 a new panel technique that controls for country specific effects and endogeneity they find that banks do exert a large causal impact on total factor productivity growth which feeds through to overall gdp gross domestic product growth the long run links between banking development and both capital growth and private savings are more tenuous

the political economy of financial regulation evidence from u s state usury laws in the 19th century financial regulation was as hotly debated a political issue in the 19th century as it is today we study the political economy of state usury laws in 19th century america exploiting the wide variation in regulation enforcement and economic conditions across states and time we find that usury laws when binding reduce credit and economic activity especially for smaller firms we examine the motives of regulation and find that usury laws coincide with other economic and political policies favoring wealthy political incumbents particularly when they have more voting power the evidence suggests financial regulation is driven by private interests capturing rents from others rather than public interests protecting the underserved we examine the motives and consequences of financial regulation to better understand the implications of regulation for financial development and economic growth while the current global financial crisis has reinvigorated the debate on financial regulation s effects and motives there is a long history of financial regulation and development we can examine to shed light on these issues specifically we study the political economy of financial regulation and its consequences through the lens of usury laws in 19th century america usury laws are arguably the oldest form of financial regulation mentioned in both the bible and the koran and dating back to ancient rome having long been