co integration analysis of quarterly european tourism demand in tunisia abstract the purpose of this study is to identify the factors that affect the destination choice process in addition to prices and income factors the supply factor is introduced as an explanatory variable in the econometric model co integration analysis and error correction models ecms are used to estimate the long run tourism demand elasticities and to forecast the quarterly european tourism demand for a 1 year ahead horizon the main finding of this study is that the behaviour of european tourists varies from one country to another the co integrating relationships show that the large elasticity magnitude may be the reflection of the relatively expensive services often sought after by tourists from these countries the estimated values of the supply elasticity corroborate the supply induced demand hypothesis finally compared to the basic structural model and using the root mean squared error the ecm provides more precise forecasts

german demand for tourism in spain abstract since germany has traditionally been one of the most important sources of tourism for spain a deep knowledge of the main determinants of the demand may be useful for policy makers and agents of the industry in this paper a dynamic model is used to examine german demand for tourism in spain the proposed model is applied to a panel data set consisting of inbound german tourism in each of the 17 spanish destinations autonomous communities for the period 1991 2003 the empirical results suggest that tourism demand in the previous period has an important effect on current tourism demand the results also indicate that the demand for tourism in spain is a luxury for the germans and highly dependent on the evolution of relative prices and cost of travel between germany and the destination

testing dependence between gdp and tourism s growth rates abstract the main aim of this paper is to link the economic behaviour and statistical properties of gdp and tourism receipts growth rates through modelling the dependence to that end two developed economies such as the united kingdom non tourist oriented and spain tourist oriented and an emerging economy such as croatia tourist oriented are considered as case studies therefore a copula based garch approach is employed to describe the dependence structure between gdp and tourism receipts growth rates in this respect any causality and cointegration between tourism and gdp could justify public policies that promote a more efficient public resource allocation in the tourism industry additionally evidence of dependence between growth rates can justify the extent and direction of these policies results indicate that there is a significant asymmetric and positive dependence between tourism and gdp growth rates for the three countries studied though only for croatia is it time varying over time

stochastic stability in a double auction abstract in a k double auction a buyer and a seller must simultaneously announce a bid and an ask price respectively exchange of the indivisible good takes place if and only if the bid is at least as high as the ask the trading price being the bid price with probability k and the ask price with probability 1 k we show that the stable equilibria of a complete information k double approximate an asymmetric nash bargaining solution with the seller s bargaining power decreasing in k note that ceteris paribus the payoffs of the seller of the one shot game increase in k nevertheless as the stochastically stable equilibrium price decreases in k choosing the seller s favorite price with a relatively higher probability in individual encounters makes him worse off in the long run

a multinomial probit model of stochastic evolution abstract a strategy revision process in symmetric normal form games is proposed following kandori et al econometrica 61 1993 29 members of a population periodically revise their strategy choice and choose a myopic best response to currently observed play their payoffs are perturbed by normally distributed harsanyian trembles so that strategies are chosen according to multinomial probit probabilities as the variance of payoffs is allowed to vanish the graph theoretic methods of the earlier literature continue to apply the distributional assumption enables a convenient closed form characterisation for the weights of the rooted trees an illustration of the approach is offered via a consideration of the role of dominated strategies in equilibrium selection

a time series analysis of the impact of recession on national park visitation in the united states abstract this study employed a generalized method of moments gmm estimator to monthly data of u s national park visitation to evaluate the effect of recession on visitation five different models with separate macroeconomic measures of recession were first estimated and then compared on their forecasting performance and accuracy results indicate that recession regardless of the macroeconomic measure used was negatively associated with demand to visit national parks survey based measures of recession that directly captured the consumer s confidence on the current and future state of economy outperformed other measures that relied on secondary economic data in explaining the impact of recession effect of recession varied among various types of visitation suggesting that certain sub sectors of national park tourism could experience a disproportionate burden of recession than others findings have important implications in understanding and managing the impact of recession on national parks and similar recreation areas

tourism demand forecasting models choice of appropriate variable to represent tourists cost of living abstract price is generally regarded as a major determinant of demand tourism has two price elements the cost of travel to the destination and the cost of living for tourists in the destination previous studies where econometric forecasting models have been developed for international tourism demand usually take the consumer price index in a country to be a proxy for the cost of tourism in that country owing to lack of appropriate data this article attempts to evaluate the performance of proxy variables compared with a specific tourists cost of living variable within the context of tourism demand forecasting models

cointegration analysis of german and british tourism demand for greece abstract germany and great britain are traditionally two of the most important sources of tourism for greece the purpose of this paper is to investigate changes in the long run demand for tourism to greece by these two countries in order to explain the demand for tourism we are using a number of leading macroeconomic variables including income in origin countries germany and great britain tourism prices in greece and transportation cost and exchanges rates between the three countries annual data from the three countries covering the period from 1960 to 2000 are employed augmented dickey fuller test for unit root is examined in the univariate framework and johansen s maximum likelihood procedure is used to test the cointegration method and to estimate the number of cointegrating vectors of var model error correction models are estimated to explain german and british demand for tourism to greece

forecasting international tourist flows to australia a comparison between the direct and indirect methods this paper compares between the use of direct and indirect forecasting of international tourist flows to australia the indirect method is applicable when time series is a contemporaneous aggregate of others which is often the case for tourist flows time series in this case forecasts are generated by aggregating those of the component variables of aggregation an alternative is the direct method whereby forecasts are generated directly from the aggregated variable this paper uses seasonal arima models regression based models and harvey s structural time series models to compare the accuracy of the two forecasting methods we find evidence strongly in favour of the indirect method using monthly time series for international tourist arrivals to australia

the determinants of italian domestic tourism a panel data analysis abstract in this study a gmm panel data estimation is used to investigate the main determinants of italian domestic tourism demand as measured by regional bilateral tourism flows the analysis is developed both at aggregate level and for the two traditional macro areas of the country namely centre north and south for the whole nation the importance of traditional economic variables in determining domestic tourism flows is confirmed however tourist actual choices appear also to be influenced by past experiences and by regional differences in the quality of the wider environment additionally it appears that for italian tourists domestic and international destinations behave as substitutable goods the sub sample analysis highlights some interesting differences between macro areas in particular southern tourists appear more responsive to income variations and less sensitive to prices differentials than their northern counterparts moreover the degree of competition between domestic and outbound trips is higher in the south finally southern tourists seem to be more influenced by environmental attributes while northern tourists are more sensitive to cultural activities

impacts of crisis events on international tourism demand in thailand in thai this study assesses the impacts of nine major crisis events during 2001 2009 on the number of foreign tourists in thailand the sarima with intervention models and x 12 arima are applied the results show that each crisis had a different effect on the number of tourists depending on the duration of situation type of crisis and country of origin the disease outbreaks had a greater impact than the other crises but the degree of impact was likely to decrease should a similar outbreak occurs in contrast the impact from the internal political chaos was relatively small when it occurred for the first time but would be greater if it recurred the indian ocean tsunami of 2004 had a huge impact but recovery was faster than that of other crises the 9 11 event made a minimal impact on thai tourism based on the results it is suggested that solving the internal politics should be the first priority if government aims to enhance thailand s tourism industry in addition the measures used for solving crises should be designed to fit each foreign tourist markets diverse responsiveness

modeling and forecasting tourism demand for arrivals with stochastic nonstationary seasonality and intervention abstract this paper presents the use of time series sarima and marima with interventions in forecasting tourism demand using ten arrival series for hong kong augmented dickey fuller tests indicated that all the series were seasonal nonstationary significant interventions such as relaxation of the issuance of out bound visitors visas the asian financial crisis the handover and the bird flu epidemic were all empirically identified with significant test results and expected signs the forecasts obtained using models that capture stochastic nonstationary seasonality and interventions sarima and marima with intervention analysis are compared with other eight time series models and were found to have the highest accuracy

long run equilibria with dominated strategies abstract we show that the predictions of long run behavior under the evolutionary process are highly sensitive to the addition and elimination of strictly dominated strategies in particular for the best response dynamics cf kandori m rob r 1995 evolution of equilibria in the long run a general theory and applications j econ theory 65 2 383 414 we prove that for any symmetric normal form game any strict nash equilibrium can be selected as the unique long run equilibrium by appropriately adding only one single strategy which is strictly dominated by all original strategies moreover if we further assume instantaneous adjustment then any convex combination of strict nash equilibria with rational number weights can be realized as the long run distribution by appropriately adding strictly dominated strategies

businesses without glamour an analysis of resources on performance by size and age in small service and retail firms abstract research on factors influencing performance in new and small companies is extensive earlier work found that strategies e g cost quality differentiation etc affected performance contingent on industry conditions the environment and the entrepreneur s background although this work provides a solid basis for understanding differences in entrepreneurial performance some firms are limited in their choices of strategy due to size age or industry often these firms are in industries where entry barriers are low and competitive advantages are easily imitated small service and retail businesses operate in sectors where these conditions are apparent comprising more than 50 of all small firms they require minimal start up investments but face intense competition lacking the glamour of high innovation high growth firms service and retail companies are at the end of the value chain their fortunes rising and falling as a result of the direct influence of the owner founder hence performance variation may be better explained by the capabilities of the firm or individual competencies of the owner founder that is the resource base and resource combinations rather than strategy the strategic importance of an organization s resources and capabilities is the foundation of resource based theory resources are tangible and intangible assets tied to the firm in a relatively permanent fashion their combinations are heterogeneous and form the basis for product market strategies studies of resources strategies and performance are emerging in the entrepreneurial area research shows that various resources in concert with different strategy types can lead to above average performance over the business life cycle and that combinations of resources are related to survival yet the vast majority of work focuses on high growth high tech or manufacturing businesses less is known about the relationships of resources to performance in less glamorous sectors in these small service and retail businesses we speculate that resources in particular human and organizational resources may play a greater role in explaining performance than strategy further as other authors have suggested it is expected that the combinations of these resources will vary across age and size this study examines the influence of human and organizational resources on performance in a sample of 195 service and retail firms operating in central new jersey using a structured questionnaire all companies utilized a focus strategy either focused cost or focused differentiation and employed a minimum of 3 to a maximum of 100 employees all measures had theoretical and or empirical precedent and were tested statistically for reliability we used factor analysis to reduce the independent variables to two human resource variables owner resources and commitment one organizational resource variable comprised of planning systems and staff skills and one strategy variable focused cost and focused differentiation control variables were business age business size environmental benignness and industry growth the dependent variable performance was measured in two ways net cash flow and log of growth in employees over 3 years the study first examined whether strategy or resources had a greater influence on performance results showed that strategy influenced performance less than human and organizational resources both individually and interactively the influence of owner resources background and attitudes on net cash flow was stronger than on growth where the only significant variable was industry market growth to analyze effects of resources on performance by size we divided the sample by size groupings selecting the smallest maximum five employees and largest quartiles minimum 16 employees which were comprised of 55 and 50 companies respectively these analyses showed that owner resources commitment and organizational resources contributed positively to net cash flow in very small firms however interactive effects of these resource combinations were negative for instance owner resources and organizational resources together and organizational resources and commitment together resulted in less positive cash flow than when analyzed separately this implies that different resource combinations can have negative influences in these very small firms we examined age effects in the same manner as size dividing the sample into age group quartiles and conducting an analysis only for very young fewer than 5 years and very old minimum 19 years groups which comprised 54 and 52 companies respectively these analyses showed that although growth was more rapid among the youngest firms there were no distinctive resource based correlates to growth in either age group substantive increases in formalized systems and procedures were not apparent among the oldest of these companies compared with the youngest contrary to previous work showing the evolution of these over business life cycles results of this study are applicable only in the context of service and retail firms and readers should note this sample was nonrandom and geographically concentrated our purpose was not to predict but describe associations between resources and performance this study shows that for firms in competitive industries at the end of the value chain type of strategy is less important than resource combinations for certain types of performance human and organizational resources are associated with more positive cash flow whereas industry and market factors are related to growth these results imply that firms seeking growth are best served by selecting and entering growth markets and industries on the other hand if strong positive cash flows are the primary objective attention to combinations of resources is more important for instance owner founders having a strong business and managerial background and industry experience will need less formalized systems whereas those owner founders with weaker managerial resources might benefit from more formalized procedures and skilled staff

structuring small firms for rapid growth abstract small firms confront significant dilemmas as they struggle to capitalize on growth opportunities surges in demand frequently result in the hiring of additional operating and administrative personnel rapid growth in employment however creates managerial problems whose resolution requires firms to design collateral systems that both mobilize staff attention toward a shared vision and support the firm s strategic outlook hambrick and crozier 1985 kotter and sathe 1978 this article reports on a cross sectional study of 95 small u s firms that experienced a five year surge in growth findings indicate that the internal systems designed by these firms to support their rapid growth varied systematically by strategic orientation and degree of product diversity contrary to expectations the relationship between strategy and structure failed to demonstrate a significant effect on these firms levels of performance indeed the data suggest that in fashioning these systems firms managements may in fact be responding to contradictory pulls 1 bureaucratization versus decentralization increased hiring stimulates bureaucracy firms formalize procedures as staffing doubles and triples employee participation and autonomy decline and internal labor markets develop tied to growth however is also an increased diversity in product offerings that favors less formalized decision processes greater decentralization and the recognition that the firm s existing human resources lack the necessary skills to manage the broadening portfolio 2 environment versus strategy high environmental turbulence and competitive conditions favor company cultures that support risk taking autonomy and employee participation in decision making firms confront competitors however through strategies whose implementation depends on the design of formal systems that inhibit risk taking and autonomy 3 strategic emphases on quality versus cost versus innovation rapidly growing firms strive to simultaneously control costs enhance product quality and improve product offerings minimizing costs and undercutting competitors product prices however are best achieved by traditional hierarchical systems of decision making and evaluation that contrast with the kinds of autonomous processes most likely to encourage the pursuit of product quality and innovation the findings suggest that managing surges in growth involves multiple challenges resolving the stresses and strains induced by attempts to control costs while simultaneously enhancing quality and creating new products to maintain competitive parity and centralizing to retain control while simultaneously decentralizing to encourage the contributions of autonomous self managed professionals to the embryonic corporate culture rapidly growing firms are challenged to strike a balance between these multiple pulls when designing their managerial systems

simple and clever decision rules for a model of evolution abstract under the decision rule specified by kandori mailath and rob 1993 kandori m mailath g j rob r 1993 learning mutation and long run equilibria in games econometrica 61 29 56 myopic adjustment can lead to surprising results including coordination on strictly dominated strategies we show that under an alternative decision rule convergence to nash equilibrium is guaranteed moreover if rare mutations are introduced risk dominant equilibria always correspond to long run equilibria

effects of budgetary constraints on international tourism expenditures abstract this paper implements a logistic transition regression model to examine the relationships between gdp per capita and international tourism expenditures across countries in 2001 2010 by types of savings regimes while studies have focused on the effect of income on international tourism expenditures none consider the nonlinear smooth transition status of savings and its impacts on discretionary spending and hence expenditure on tourism the impact of income on tourism expenditures can vary under different savings regimes the results show that in a low savings regime the effect of an increase in the gdp per capita on international tourism expenditures is more pronounced in a high savings regime there is strong motivation for precautionary savings and tourism is considered a luxury therefore such spending is crowded out by an increase in savings as gdp per capita increases although international tourism expenditures also increase with gdp per capita they do so at a slower rate these findings establish an accurate understanding of the effects of savings on international tourism expenditures

cointegration analysis of quarterly tourism demand by hong kong and singapore for australia hong kong and singapore are two of the most important and fastest growing markets for tourists to australia the purpose of this paper is to investigate movements in the long run demand for tourist travel by these two origin countries for australia some of the leading macroeconomic variables examined to explain tourism demand are incomes in hong kong and singapore tourism prices in australia and transportation costs and exchange rates between the two countries and australia seasonally unadjusted quarterly data are used for hong kong for the period 1975 1 1996 4 and for 1980 4 1996 4 for singapore several proxy variables are used for the incomes of tourists from hong kong and singapore to explain quarterly tourist arrivals to australia the augmented dickey fuller test for unit roots is examined in the univariate framework and johansen s maximum likelihood procedure is used to test for cointegration and to estimate the number of cointegrating vectors error correction models are estimated to exp

analysis of optimal timing of tourism demand recovery policies from natural disaster using the contingent behavior method this paper examines the applicability of contingent behavior hereafter cb method for analyzing dynamic processes and efficient policies in tourism demand recovery the cb questionnaires used for this study used a hypothetical disaster situation of bird flu in kyoto japan safety event visitor information and price discounting policies were designed accordingly respondents were then asked about their willingness to travel time the results showed the optimal timing for devising pertinent policies during the year we found that the first step requires a safety information announcement within one week immediately after disaster site decontamination the second step is the implementation of event information policy within 24th to 36th week after the disaster the third step constitutes announcing visitor information within the 37th to 52nd week after the second step the final step is the implementation of price discounting policy until the 52nd week immediately after the third step

more neighbors more efficiency abstract this paper considers a finite population of agents located within an arbitrary fixed network every agent plays a coordination game with his neighbors if one neighbor s payoff from a specific interaction exceeds his average payoff per interaction the neighbor is perceived as better performing over time agents imitate the strategies of their better performing neighbors occasionally they make mistakes sufficient conditions for emergence of pareto efficient and risk dominant conventions are provided the paper also illustrates the main results through relevant examples

tourism demand modelling and forecasting a review of recent research abstract this paper reviews the published studies on tourism demand modelling and forecasting since 2000 one of the key findings of this review is that the methods used in analysing and forecasting the demand for tourism have been more diverse than those identified by other review articles in addition to the most popular time series and econometric models a number of new techniques have emerged in the literature however as far as the forecasting accuracy is concerned the study shows that there is no single model that consistently outperforms other models in all situations furthermore this study identifies some new research directions which include improving the forecasting accuracy through forecast combination integrating both qualitative and quantitative forecasting approaches tourism cycles and seasonality analysis events impact assessment and risk forecasting

bandwagon effects and long run technology choice abstract we introduce a class of bandwagon games which generalizes the notion of network externalities when there are more than two competing technologies and various degrees of partial compatibilities among them we then apply the stochastic evolutionary approach to this class of games we determine the conditions under which a globally pairwise risk dominant technology is the long run equilibrium lre we also show the conditions under which one technology takes over another technology by directly switching consumers from the latter to the former also called direct domination parametric examples illustrate the properties of the technology which is the lre journal of economic literature classification numbers c72 c73

forecasting international tourist flows to macau abstract the vector autoregressive var modelling technique is used to forecast tourist flows to macau from eight major origin countries regions over the period 2003 2008 the existing literature shows that the var model is capable of producing accurate medium to long term forecasts and also separate forecasts of the explanatory variables are not required a further justification for using the var technique is that it permits an impulse response analysis to be performed in order to examine the ways in which the demand for macau tourism responds to the shocks in the economic variables within the var system the implications of this analysis are discussed the forecasts generated by the var models suggest that macau will face increasing tourism demand by residents from mainland china since the needs of chinese tourists tend to be different from those from other origin countries regions especially western countries the business sectors in macau need to pay considerable attention to catering for the needs of chinese tourists

a fractionally integrated autoregressive moving average approach to forecasting tourism demand the primary aim of this paper is to incorporate fractionally integrated arma p d q arfima models into tourism forecasting and to compare the accuracy of forecasts with those obtained by previous studies the models are estimated using the volume of monthly international tourist arrivals in singapore empirical findings demonstrate the evidence that the approach we propose generates relatively lower sample mean absolute percentage errors mapes this study also deals with the volatile data faced by a forecaster we use the asian financial crisis and the september 11 event as examples of economic and political shocks with respect to the objective of shaving the coefficient mape forecasts based on the selected arfima models dominate convincingly

an analysis of seasonality in monthly per person tourist spending in turkish inbound tourism from a market segmentation perspective abstract this study analyses seasonal variations in monthly per person tourist spending in turkish inbound tourism from a market segmentation perspective in this study a seasonal unit root test and recently developed decomposition techniques tramo seats x 12 arima are used it is found that there is a stochastic and strong seasonality in per person tourist spending data the findings interestingly show that the seasonal pattern in per person tourist spending is considerably different from the seasonal pattern in tourist arrivals the results have implications for decision makers in tourism both at micro and macro levels in terms of effective resource allocation and market segmentation

characteristics of west german demand for international tourism in the northern mediterranean region the purpose of this paper is to establish the economic determinants of west germany s demand for international tourism in six northern mediterranean nations the methodology makes use of the translog utility function homotheticity and additivity restrictions of the utility theory are tested as hypotheses expenditure income own and cross price elasticities are claculated for each of the twenty years from 1966 to 1985

seasonal concentration of the hotel demand in costa del sol a decomposition by nationalities abstract costa del sol is a mature mediterranean destination in the south of spain with a degree of seasonality that has shown little variation during the last 20 years in this paper we apply the decomposition of the gini index of seasonal concentration by nationalities the main outcome of this decomposition is the estimation of relative contributions to the overall seasonal concentration and marginal effects by nationalities these measures can be of great help in the design of counter seasonal policies our results suggest that planners interested in reducing seasonality may concentrate their efforts in consolidating markets with negative marginal effect over the index of concentration like the british and nordic ones in addition marketing targets may be focused primarily in the winter season for the markets with positive relative marginal effect

entrepreneurial orientation and small business performance a configurational approach the strategy and entrepreneurship literatures suggest that an entrepreneurial orientation eo improves firm performance but the empirical results are mixed in this article we investigate the eo of small businesses and find that a main effects only analysis provides an incomplete picture of performance access to capital and the dynamism of the environment are important to small businesses and we find that when combined with eo a three way interaction model the configurational approach explains variance in performance over and above a contingency model two way interactions and a main effects only model

tourism trends and the business cycle tourism in recession abstract this paper outlines the nature of the current economic recession in the usa it discusses the impact of the recession on tourism volume travel generated employment and travel prices it presents data from the data center s monthly national travel survey on how individual types of travel and types of travellers are adjusting to the overall decline in economic activity finally conclusions are presented to help planners marketers and policymakers deal more effectively with future recessions this paper forms part of a more general study a similar discussion of travel in periods of economic recovery is planned for later publication

constrained interactions and social coordination we consider a co evolutionary model of social coordination and network formation where agents may decide on an action in a 2x2 coordination game and on whom to establish costly links to we find that a payoff domination convention is selected for a wider parameter range when agents may only support a limited number of links as compared to a scenario where agents are not constrained in their linking choice the main reason behind this result is that whenever there is a small cluster of agents playing the efficient strategy other players want to link up to those layers and choose the efficient action

detrending stylized facts and the business cycle the stylized facts of macroeconomic time series can be presented by fitting structural time series models within this framework we analyse the consequences of the widely used detrending technique popularised by hodrick and prescott 1980 it is shown that mechanical detrending based on the hodrick prescott filter can lead investigators to report spurious cyclical behaviour and this point is illustrated with empirical examples structural time series models also allow investigators to deal explicitly with seasonal and irregular movements that may distort estimated cyclical components finally the structural framework provides a basis for exposing the limitations of arima methodology and models based on a deterministic trend with a single break

leading indicator tourism forecasts leading indicators have been widely used in general business forecasting situations but only rarely in a tourism context in this study leading indicator transfer function tf models are developed to generate forecasts of international tourism demand from the uk to six major destinations the out of sample forecasting accuracy is compared with the accuracy of forecasts generated by univariate arima and error correction models ecms the inclusion of a causal input within an arima time series framework tf model does not result in an improvement in forecasting performance the time series models outperform the ecm for short term forecasting but the ecm generates more accurate longer term forecasts

an econometric study of tourist arrivals in aruba and its implications abstract the principal purpose of this study is to analyze econometric estimates in order to explain tourist arrivals to aruba from the united states the netherlands and venezuela the study specified a dynamic econometric model for modeling short term as well as the long term responses it estimated both linear and log linear functions and it applied the box cox statistical method to determine the appropriate functional form the inclusion of venezuela as a developing country permitted the comparison of the behavior of tourism demand in relatively rich and poor countries the results indicated the extent to which cross country behavior of demand differs with respect to changes in effective prices and exchange rates this study can assist in the formulation of future macroeconomic policies as well as market and pricing strategies in a small or microstate economy

understanding tourists economizing strategies during the global economic crisis abstract this paper explores how tourists from 165 regions of eu 27 countries cut back their tourism expenditure during the global economic crisis in 2009 cutbacks in tourism expenditure are divided into two mutually related decisions firstly whether or not the tourists decided to cut back on tourism expenditure because of the crisis and second which of six options they employed as their cut back strategy fewer holidays reduced length of stay cheaper means of transport cheaper accommodation travel closer to home or change the period of travel the econometric model used to address these kinds of simultaneous decisions is an adaptation of the heckman model within a generalized structural equations modelling approach this methodology controls for sample selection bias and correlations between equations this paper highlights patterns in cutback decisions that are associated with the socioeconomic characteristics of the household and the climate in the country of origin

do expectations of future wealth increase outbound tourism evidence from korea abstract as international tourism is generally considered a luxury good models to date have shared an understanding that demand is dependent on discretionary income however consumption theories predict that a shift in demand can be induced without changes in actual earnings when expectations for future income are adjusted this presumes demand for international tourism can be influenced by wealth effects from real estate and financial assets this study tested for the wealth effect on korean outbound travelers during the 20 years between 1989 and 2009 korea is a unique place to examine in that korean households possess housing assets and financial assets that are traded actively in markets the results of this study favored the possibility of a significant wealth effect from housing on outbound travel demand but not from financial assets this may be explained by data sensitivity and the relative importance of financial assets in the korean people s wealth portfolios implications and suggestions for future research are provided along with the findings of the study

long run equilibria dominated strategies and local interactions abstract we revisit a result by kim and wong 2010 showing that under global interactions any strict nash equilibrium of a coordination game can be supported as long run equilibrium by properly adding dominated strategies we show that in the circular city model of local interactions and in the torus model of local interactions the selection of 1 2 dominant strategies remains when adding strictly dominated strategies if interaction is sufficiently local conversely if the local interaction structure is central in the circular city model any equilibrium strategy of the original game can be supported as long run equilibrium by adding properly suited dominated strategies

constrained mobility and the evolution of efficient outcomes we study an evolutionary model akin to the one studied in anwar 2002 where a set of agents use myopic best response learning to i determine their action in a 2 2 coordination game and ii to choose on which of multiple islands to interact we focus on the case where the number of agents maximally allowed on each islands is constrained we extend anwar s original analysis by considering the case when there may be more than two islands we find that if the constraints are such that one island may be empty universal coordination on the payoff dominant action is possible in the long run if the constraints are such that all islands will be full then for relatively mild constraints and apart from special cases the coexistence of conventions will occur with one island coordinating on the risk dominant action and all remaining islands coordinating on the payoff dominant action for relatively stringent constraints all agents will play the risk dominant action

the demand for international tourism in the mediterranean region the paper studies the demand for international tourism in the mediterranean region first a review of the most important attempts to model econometrically the demand for international tourism in the past is given followed by a formal presentation of the proposed theoretical model in particular a version of the almost ideal demand system aids is adopted and a description of the variables involved and their sources together with the estimation procedure are provided the diagrammatic analysis performed contributes to a better understanding of the evolution of the dependent variable over time the results with respect to the expenditure as well as to the own and cross price elasticities may be regarded as econometrically satisfactory and a reasonable economic explanation is given

real time forecasting regional tourism with business sentiment surveys abstract this study provides evidence that supply side soft information retrieved from business surveys is effective in real time forecasting of hotel arrivals at the regional level we assess the effect of including business sentiment indicators in commonly used naive specifications and structural time series models using residuals and predictive diagnostics we find that both the goodness of fit and the forecasting accuracy of the augmented models are superior to those of the baseline models whence the opportunity to extend to the tourism sector the surveys on the business sentiment currently realized by the provincial chambers of commerce for the manufacturing sector allowing an effective and timely managing of local tourism market where official information is likely to be either lacking or poor in quality

modelling and forecasting australian domestic tourism abstract in this paper we model and forecast australian domestic tourism demand we use a regression framework to estimate important economic relationships for domestic tourism demand we also identify the impact of world events such as the 2000 sydney olympics and the 2002 bali bombings on australian domestic tourism to explore the time series nature of the data we use innovations state space models to forecast domestic tourism demand combining these two frameworks we build innovations state space models with exogenous variables these models are able to capture the time series dynamics in the data as well as economic and other relationships we show that these models outperform alternative approaches for short term forecasting and also produce sensible long term forecasts the forecasts are compared with the official australian government forecasts which are found to be more optimistic than our forecasts

p dominance and equilibrium selection under perfect foresight dynamics this paper studies equilibrium selection based on a class of perfect foresight dynamics and relates it to the notion of p dominance a continuum of rational players are repeatedly and randomly matched to play a symmetric n n game there are frictions opportunities to revise actions follow independent poisson processes the dynamics has stationary states each of which corresponds to a nash equilibrium of the static game a strict nash equilibrium is linearly stable under the perfect foresight dynamics if independently of the current action distribution there exists a consistent belief that any player necessarily plays the nash equilibrium action at every revision opportunity it is shown that a strict nash equilibrium is linearly stable under the perfect foresight dynamics with a small degree of friction if and only if it is the p dominant equilibrium with p 1 2 it is also shown that if a strict nash equilibrium is the p dominant equilibrium with p 1 2 then it is uniquely absorbing and globally accessible for a small friction but not vice versa set valued stability concepts are introduced and their existence is shown journal of economic literature classication numbers c72 c73

imitation local interactions and efficiency abstract we consider a circular city model as in ellison ellison g 1993 learning local interaction and coordination econometrica 61 1047 1071 where agents follow imitation rules rather than myopic best response if interactions are neither global nor limited to the immediate neighbors payoff efficient equilibria and not risk dominant ones can be uniquely selected

inbound international tourism to canary islands a dynamic panel data model abstract this paper presents a dynamic model of international tourism demand to canary islands the empirical analysis exploits the panel structure of the dataset for the 15 most important countries of origin of tourists over the period 1992 2002 by a generalized method of moments estimation of a dynamic model taking into account unobserved country specific effects the preferred model is the gmm diff proposed by arellano and bond however other models are also shown for comparison a dynamic model where the lagged dependent variable is included as regressor is used to obtain short run and long run elasticities problems arising from the non stationarity of data are dealt with by using a model in first differences the estimated coefficient for the lagged depended variable is always significant and may reflect a high degree of consumer loyalty or an important effect of word of mouth in determining demand of international tourism in brief the results suggests that tourism demand to canary islands must be considered as a luxury good and is highly dependent on the evolution of relative prices and cost of travel between origin and destination country

forecasting tourist arrivals using origin country macroeconomics this study utilizes both disaggregated data and macroeconomic indicators in order to examine the importance of the macroeconomic environment of origin countries for analysing destinations tourist arrivals in particular it is the first study to present strong empirical evidence that both of these features in tandem provide statistically significant information of tourist arrivals in greece the forecasting exercises presented in our analysis show that macroeconomic indicators conducive to better forecasts are mainly origin country specific thus highlighting the importance of considering the apparent sharp national contrasts among origin countries when investigating domestic tourist arrivals given the extent of the dependency of the greek economy on tourism income but also given the perishable nature of the tourist product itself results have important implications for policy makers in greece

the impact of crisis events and macroeconomic activity on taiwan s international inbound tourism demand abstract the number of inbound tourism arrivals directly impacts the tourism industry and the government agency investments therein therefore policymakers need to improve their understanding of how crisis events affect the demand for inbound tourism from the first quarter of 1996 to the second quarter of 2006 taiwan experienced four major disasters at approximately two year intervals these disasters included the asian financial crisis in 1997 the 21st september 1999 earthquake the 11th september 2001 attacks in the united states and the outbreak of sars in 2003 this paper examines the impact of crisis events on the demand for tourism in order to establish a better understanding of changes and trends in the demand for international tourism this paper uses the auto regression distributed lag model by pesaran shin and smith pesaran m h shin y smith r j 2001 bounds testing approaches to the analysis of long run relationship journal of applied econometrics 16 289 326 to examine the negative impact of these disasters on the demand for inbound tourism this paper also explores the influence of variables such as foreign exchange rates incomes relative prices and transportation costs on the dynamics of the demand for inbound tourism this paper finds that a long term equilibrium exists among all variables indicating that macroeconomic variables may be used to determine the rise or fall of the number of inbound tourism arrivals income and foreign exchange rates are both significant explanatory variables in terms of incurred losses the number of inbound tourism arrivals suffered the greatest decline during the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome sars followed by the 21st september 1999 earthquake and the 11th september 2001 attacks the impact of the asian financial crisis was relatively mild this paper finds that any impact on safety whether domestic or international negatively affects tourism demand the impact of financial crises on tourism demand is less significant ensuring the safety and health of tourists is the key to maintain demand for inbound tourism

the logit response dynamics we develop a characterization of stochastically stable states for the logit response learning dynamics in games with arbitraryspecification of revision opportunities the result allows us to show convergence to the set of nash equilibria in the class of best response potential games and the failure of the dynamics to select potential maximizers beyond the class of exact potential games we also study to which extent equilibrium selection is robust to the specificationof revision opportunities our techniques can be extended and applied to a wide class of learning dynamics in games

on the relationship between risk dominance and stochastic stability abstract in a 2 2 symmetric game with two symmetric equilibria one risk dominates another if and only if the equilibrium strategy is a unique best response to any mixture that gives itself at least a probability of one half in a two person strategic form game we call a nash equilibrium globally risk dominant if it consists of strategies such that each one of them is a unique best response to any mixture that gives the other at least a probability of one half we show that if a weakly acyclic two person game has a globally risk dominant equilibrium then this is the one that is selected by the stochastic equilibrium selection process of young journal of economic literature classification numbers c72 c73

when demand drops and prices rise tourist packages in the balearic islands during the economic crisis abstract the aim of this paper is to analyse the effects of the crisis on the prices of package holidays to the balearic islands sold by a sample of british and german tour operators three alternative price indexes are calculated the results show that tour operators have reacted by using market strategies other than pricing aimed at boosting their revenue even though they do not push up the number of tourists thus protecting the tour operators financial yield

a comparison of three different approaches to tourist arrival forecasting abstract forecasting plays a major role in tourism planning the promotion of tourism projects involving substantial sums of money requires an estimate of future demand and market penetration the commitment to developing tourism would be much easier if it were possible to analyse current and past tourist traffic and predict the nature of changes in tourism demand these extrapolative approaches to forecasting require historical data this paper investigates the application of three time series forecasting techniques namely exponential smoothing univariate arima and elman s model of artificial neural networks ann to predict travel demand i e the number of arrivals from different countries to hong kong exponential smoothing and arima are two commonly used statistical time series forecasting techniques the third approach neural networks is an artificial intelligence technique derived from computer science according to the analysis presented in this paper neural networks seems to be the best method for forecasting visitor arrivals especially those series without obvious pattern

examination of taiwan s travel and tourism market cycle through a two period markov regime switching model abstract this study analyzes the taiwan travel and tourism t t market cycle according to data of the weighted taiwan tourism stock index from january 1997 to august 2015 the two period markov regime switching model identifies two distinct regimes of the t t cycle and incorporates a specific set of mean and variance parameters for each period to control for the structural changes in taiwan s t t market the effect of china visitor arrivals to taiwan on the t t market is also verified the empirical findings offer essential information and policy implications for taiwan s government tourism policymakers and business managers

product life cycle considerations and the nature of strategic activities in entrepreneurial firms abstract this article reports on the nature of strategic activities and concerns reported by the ceos of 77 entrepreneurial manufacturing firms once initial success in their marketplace had been achieved once the entrepreneurial firm achieves initial market success the rate and number of strategic decisions faced by the entrepreneurs rapidly expand a product becomes a product line product lines are added facilities and equipment are expanded personnel are added a more formal and interpersonally complex organization becomes necessary markets and distribution channels expand adding uncertainty to key market related decisions new financial risks arise often as the result of undercapitalized cash flows all of these factors combine to dramatically increase the pressure on the entrepreneur s strategic decision making a major factor underlying the complicity inherent in this scenario is the product market life cycle the entrepreneurs must now organize and make decisions regarding several product lines that span several life cycle stages with different strategic concerns rather than regarding the narrow product range and limited life cycle position that provided their initial success the research reported in this article examined the relative importance of ten strategic activities and concerns reported by the 77 ceos across products at different life cycle stages initial interviews with selected ceos and a review of the strategic management literature identified ten key factors shaping the firm s evolving decision making practices these ten factors were divided into three groups 1 1 operational concerns that necessitate strategic attention 1 changes in product design 2 changes in process design 3 risk of producing a product and 4 emphasis on creativity 2 2 dimensions influencing a firm s strategic management activities 5 demand on the strategic manager s time 6 speed of decision making 7 problems of internal politics and 8 environmental uncertainty 3 3 fundamental assumptions underlying a firm s decision making practices 9 annual profit potential and 10 value of strategic planning there are two main sets of results first four process related factors value of strategic planning demand on ceo s time speed of decision making and annual profit potential were consistently the most important factors affecting performance within eact stage regardless of the life cycle of a particular product line the manner or process by which decisions were made strategic planning ceo s time and speed of decision making and one key assumption or objective annual profit potential were seen as factors more important in affecting performance than were operating concerns that necessitated strategic attention second strategic issues associated with product lines at the development and growth stages of their life cycle are reported to be significantly more important to ceos in entrepreneurial manufacturing firms than are strategic issues associated with mature or declining products lines these results suggest that ceos in entrepreneurial manufacturing firms should re examine their strategies and practices to be sure that sufficient strategic attention is being given to decisions regarding mature product lines in addition these ceo s need to ensure in the face of constant demands for their time and decisions that operating concerns requiring strategic attention get appropriate consideration

modelling the uncertainty in monthly international tourist arrivals to the maldives abstract the indian ocean tsunami of 26 december 2004 made clear the devastating short term impact in lost lives as well as the longer term impact in lost livelihoods and an uncertain future tourism was one of the more obvious non human casualties of this tragic natural phenomenon tourism is the principal industry in the maldives accounting for more than 30 of gdp and more than 60 of foreign exchange earnings as over 55 of government tax revenue arises from tourism related taxes and monthly government budget financing depends largely on international tourist arrivals the monitoring of daily weekly and monthly international tourist arrivals is essential for fiscal policy evaluation over 600 000 tourists visited the maldives in 2004 this paper examines the time series properties of monthly international tourist arrivals to the maldives from eight major tourist source countries namely italy germany uk japan france switzerland austria and the netherlands from 1 january 1994 to 31 december 2003 monthly international tourist arrivals and the associated uncertainty are estimated for the eight principal tourist source countries univariate and multivariate time series models of conditional volatility or uncertainty are estimated and tested the conditional correlations are estimated and examined to ascertain whether there is specialization diversification or segmentation in the international tourism demand shocks from the major tourism source countries to the maldives the estimated static conditional correlations for monthly international tourist arrivals as well as for the respective transformed series were found to be significantly different from zero but also relatively low this indicates that the government of the maldives and the major tour operators that organise tourist vacations have to emphasise their marketing efforts independently of each tourist source country

the length of stay in the demand for tourism abstract one of the main characteristics of current tourism is the reduction in the length of stay at a destination nevertheless this variable has received little attention in literature this paper examines the microeconomic determinants of the length of stay at one of the mediterranean s leading sun and sand destinations the estimation of a conditional demand function model highlights the explanatory power of the tourist s sociodemographic profile and of holiday characteristics as well as the sensitivity of the length of stay to price changes

partial bandwagon effects and local interactions we consider partial bandwagon properties in the context of coordination games to capture the idea of weak network externalities we then study a local interactions model where agents play a coordination game following a noisy best reply process we show that globally pairwise risk dominant strategies are selected in arbitrary 3 3 coordination games but not necessarily in larger games a comparison with the global interactions benchmark shows that the nature of interactions might alter the long run results themselves and not only the speed of convergence we also illustrate that the simultaneous coexistence of conventions is possible for games with at least 5 strategies 2007 elsevier inc all rights reserved

tourism demand for italy and the business cycle this study provides a strategy for modelling the effect of the business cycle on tourism demand under the rationale that tourism cycles are heavily influenced by lagged effects of the overall business cycle using quarterly data on overnight stays in italian hotels both domestic and inbound between 1985 and 2004 we adopt a structural time series approach to evaluate two alternative models the first with a latent cycle component lcc and the second based on specific economic explanatory variables xcv the two models are compared in terms of explanatory power best fit residual diagnostics and forecasting ability the results show similar performances the policy implication is that the xcv model can be used for calibrating countercyclical interventions in tourism policy

the role of alliances in the early development of high growth firms rapid growth is sought after but may overstretch a firm s resources can alliances supply compensating support for rapidly growing firms longitudinal data on firms in a technology cluster are used to investigate rapid growth in relation to alliances and other factors known to be associated with firm growth rapid firm growth appears beneficial in terms of higher survival rates and earlier attainment of mid size but is rarely sustained alliances are predictors of rapid growth as are international operations venture capital is not directly associated with firm growth in the findings but there is a high incidence of alliances among venture capital backed firms copyright 2014 the author 2013 published by oxford university press on behalf of associazione icc all rights reserved oxford university press

learning with fixed rules the minority game abstract this paper gives a critical account of the literature on adaptive behaviour in the minority game a simple congestion game the literature has proposed a model which differs markedly from many standard learning models in that players are endowed with a fixed subset of behavioural rules or response modes which map the observed history to actions these rules need not have a behavioural interpretation or be derived from some form of optimizing behaviour nonetheless this model gives rise to behaviour that is close to equilibrium behaviour at the aggregate level the individual level behaviour predicted by the model seems to capture some aspects of observed experimental behaviour that are difficult to explain using standard models

stumblers and stars in the management of rapid growth this article examines the problems of managing a rapid growth firm we contend that instead of being a time for entrepreneurial celebration and relief a period of over 50 growth is a time for wariness and some very difficult decisions such firms face a fragile transition they are beyond being intimate cohesive entrepreneurial ventures but they have not yet become secure stable entities not only are they in flux but these firms are often disoriented by the pace at which change is occurring firms such as atari cray research cullinet osborne computers people express and rolm recently have faced or now face these challenges with very different degrees of success this article presents observations drawn from several sources a study of thirty rapid growth firms which we have underway literature and press accounts of rapid growth and our consulting and discussions with executives in such firms while far from definitive the article reports several themes that are very pronounced in the situations we have studied these themes are of two types 1 recurring challenges and traps faced by rapid growth companies and 2 characteristics af firms which seem to avoid or surmount these traps these are the four fundamental challenges that we see confronting rapid growth firms 1 1 instant size these firms double and triple in size very quickly this in turn creates problems of disaffection inadequate skills and inadequate systems 2 2 a sense of infallibility by virtue of their success to date rapid growth firms often view their strategies and behaviors as infallible the unfortunate irony is that they become convinced of their wisdom while the environment is turbulent and large competitors are entering 3 3 internal turmoil as a social organism a firm growing at 50 per year is under great strain there is a stream of new faces people who do not know each other and who do not know the company decision making suffers turf battles abound and people burn out 4 4 extraordinary resource needs rapid growth firms are typically cash starved instead of abundance they often face a bare bones existence each of these challenges calls for its own solutions but we have observed some overarching themes in firms that have successfully traversed a period of rapid growth the chief executive is able to envision and anticipate the firm as a larger entity the team needed for tomorrow is hired and developed today the original core vision of the firm is constantly and zealously reinforced new big company processes are introduced gradually as supplements to rather than replacements for existing approaches hierarchy is minimized employees hold a financial stake in the firm beyond developing these themes for success the article concludes with a brief discussion of the effectiveness of owner founders in rapid growth situations

monitoring tourism flows and destination management empirical evidence for portugal we propose the use of a tool recently introduced by gayer 2010 known as the economic climate tracer to analyze and monitor the cyclical evolution of tourism source markets to portugal considering the period 1987 2015 we evaluate how tourism to portugal has been affected by economic cycles this tool is useful as it clearly illustrates the evolutionary patterns of different markets and allows us to identify close relationships with economic fluctuations we found that german tourism plays a leading role since its movements are followed with delays by tourism flows from other countries and exhibits higher resilience to shocks also domestic and spanish tourism have both displayed less irregular behaviors than tourism from other source markets on the contrary tourism from the netherlands and the uk have displayed irregular patterns which demonstrates the urgency to diversify tourism source markets to reduce the country s vulnerability to external shocks and economic cycles

the relevance of business cycles in forecasting international tourist arrivals abstract casual empiricism suggests that there may be a cyclical trend associated with international tourist arrivals in which variation around the linear trend can be formed by the interaction with other cyclical phenomena this paper employs a simple model that incorporates a linear trend and sine function to capture these two characteristics in forecasting international tourist arrivals in hong kong the model is extended to include a set of sine functions through the application of fourier analysis to account for situations in which more than one phenomenon may be present in the time series the forecasting accuracy of the model is compared with other forecasting approaches evaluation of the results using the mean absolute percentage error measure show that the forecasting performance of the extended model with a linear trend and two sine functions is superior in terms of accuracy when compared with other forecasting models