the structure of unemployment we test for a unit root in postwar unemployment rates for sixteen oecd countries when a one time structural break is incorporated the unit root hypothesis can be rejected for most of the countries and the measured persistence of unemployment falls dramatically we then test for multiple structural changes and find evidence of one or two breaks for those countries for which the unit root hypothesis could be rejected almost all of the breaks are positive reflecting the sustained rise in european unemployment the major exception is the united states where long term unemployment rose in the 1970s and fell in the 1980s

a method for solving general equilibrium models with incomplete markets and many financial assets abstract this paper presents a numerical method for solving stochastic general equilibrium models with dynamic portfolio choice the method can be applied to models with heterogeneous agents time varying investment opportunity sets and incomplete asset markets we illustrate the method using a two country model with production we check the accuracy of our method by comparing the numerical solution to a complete markets version of the model against its known analytic properties we then apply the method to an incomplete markets version where no analytic solution is available in all versions the standard accuracy tests confirm the effectiveness of our method

can nontradables generate substantial home bias the past decade has witnessed an increase in the fraction of equity portfolios invested abroad as barriers to international asset trade have significantly declined what are the long run implications of this process in this paper we investigate to what extent nontradables consumption and leisure can affect the portfolio allocation decision in otherwise integrated capital markets we find that hedging against nontradables shocks can account for only a small portfolio bias toward domestic assets these results suggest that in the near future we can expect to observe sizable additional international diversification

investment allocation decisions home bias and the mandatory ifrs adoption abstract we examine the familiarity hypothesis of home bias by studying how foreign ownership of swedish firms is affected by the mandatory adoption of ifrs we decompose foreign investors into institutional and non institutional investors foreign investors are further decomposed into eu ifrs adopting countries and non eu residents non ifrs adopting countries we analyse the equity investments of these foreign investor groups in sweden during the period of 2001 2007 we find that after the mandatory adoption of ifrs foreign ownership owners from countries that adopted ifrs and particularly those from the eu increased these effects are particularly strong in small firms foreign institutional investors increased their ownership stake after the mandatory ifrs adoption whereas foreign non institutional investments were not affected significantly by the ifrs adoption in contrast to ownership from non adopting countries ownership from the eu increased in firms with both more and less tangible assets similarly foreign ownership from the eu increased in firms with both concentrated ownership and dispersed ownership after the adoption because sweden has already had strict legal enforcement and a low level of earnings management prior to the adoption our results suggest that increased foreign ownership is due to better abilities to compare firms rather than an improved quality

wage aspirations and unemployment persistence abstract we use panel data to examine the empirical determinants of the reservation wage in particular the influence of previous wages and consider what this implies for the evolution of the natural rate of unemployment we find that previous wages have a significant but relatively small effect on reservation wages an elasticity between 0 15 and 0 47 we also find considerable differences across genders with previous wages being more important for men and market wages being more important for women overall our results suggest that the reservation wage will adjust quite quickly to shocks

a time series analysis of representative agent models of consumption andleisure choice under uncertainty this paper investigates empirically a model of aggregate consumption and leisure decisions in which utility from goods and leisure is nontime separable the nonseparability of preferences accommodates intertemporal substitution or complementarity of leisure and thereby affects the comovements in aggregate compensation and hours worked these cross relations are examined empirically using postwar monthly u s data on quantities real wages and the real return on the one month treasury bill the estimated values of the parameters governing preferences differ significantly from the values assumed in several studies of real business models several possible explanations of these discrepancies are discussed

international capital mobility net versus gross stocks and flows abstract feldstein and horioka 1980 observed that net capital flows have been small in relation to domestic saving and investment flows for oecd countries in the post war period which they interpreted as evidence of low capital mobility this paper argues that the correlation between gross domestic and international financial flows can be a better indicator of capital mobilitythan net capital flows contrary to the conventional wisdom among international economists gross flows have been small in relation to gross domestic asset creation for oecd countries although by this measure the degree of capital mobility increased in the 1980s

capture and ideology in the economic theory of politics the economic theory of regulation long ago put public interest theories of politics to rest these theories have correctly been viewed as normative wishings rather than explanations of real world phenomena they have been replaced by models of political behavior that are consistent with the rest of microeconomics anthony downs 1957 james buchanan and gordon tullock 1965 george stigler 1971 sam peltzman 1976 recently however debate has arisen over whether some version of a public interest theory of regulation will have to be readmitted to our thinking about actions and results in the political arena what is at issue is the empirical importance of the altruistic publicly interested goals of rational actors in determining legislative and regulatory outcomes james kau and paul rubin 1979 kalt 1981 peltzman 1982 this study assesses the nature and significance of publicly interested objectives in a particular instance of economic policymaking u s senate voting on coal strip mining regulations the existence of such objectives is of course no contradiction of the economic view of human behavior kenneth arrow 1972 gary becker 1974 and may well be rooted in genetic biological history becker 1976 jack hirshleifer 1978 generally however individuals altruistic publicly interested goals have been given little attention this reflects the judgment that such goals are so empirically unimportant as to allow the use of occam s razor in positive models or well founded apprehensions that these goals are unusually difficult to identify measure and analyze notwithstanding the latter problem we find that approaches which confine themselves to a view of political actors as narrowly egocentric maximizers explain and predict legislative outcomes poorly the tracking and dissecting of the determinants of voting on coal strip mining policy suggest that the economic theory of politics has been prematurely closed to a broader conception of political behavior

international portfolio nondiversification and exchange rate variability abstract incomplete international portfolio diversification is implied by an equilibrium models of exchange rates with nontraded goods the model can also explain the greater correlation between consumption and income within a country than between consumption across countries nontraded goods make more stringent the elasticity conditions required to explain exchange rate variability resulting from current productivity disturbances though not from disturbances to fiscal policies or the prospective return to investment the model is also consistent with international real interest rate differentials changes over time in the current account and relative wealth across nations and observed time series properties of exchange rates

home bias in global bond and equity markets the role of real exchange rate volatility abstract this paper focuses on the role of real exchange rate volatility as a driver of portfolio home bias and in particular as an explanation for differences in home bias across financial assets we present a markowitz type portfolio selection model in which real exchange rate volatility induces a bias towards domestic financial assets as well as a stronger home bias for assets with low local currency return volatility we find empirical support in favour of this hypothesis for a broad set of industrialized and emerging market countries not only is real exchange rate volatility an important factor behind bilateral portfolio home bias but we find that a reduction of monthly real exchange rate volatility from its sample mean to zero reduces bond home bias by up to 60 percentage points while it reduces equity home bias by only 20 percentage points

home bias in equity portfolios inflation hedging and international capital market equilibrium we test whether the home bias in equity portfolios is caused by investors trying to hedge inflation risk the empirical evidence is consistent with this motive only if investors have very high levels of risk tolerance and equity returns are negatively correlated with domestic inflation we then develop a model of international portfolio choice and equity market equilibrium that integrates inflation risk and deadweight costs using this model we estimate the levels of costs required to generate the observed home bias in portfolios consistent with different levels of risk aversion for a level of risk aversion consistent with standard estimates of the domestic equity market risk premium these costs are about a few percent per annum greater than observable costs such as withholding taxes thus the home bias cannot be explained by either inflation hedging or direct observable costs of international investment unless investors have very low levels of risk aversion article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

a critique on the effectiveness of tax expenditure limitations the principal purpose of this study is to investigate the probable impact of tax and spending limitations on tax burdens and state expenditures this is accomplished via a systematic evaluation of the alternative proposals associated with tax limitation legislation in particular this paper analyzes the linking of state public sector growth to inflation limiting tax burdens to a percent of personal income the inclusion of escape clauses in the enabling legislation and the evolution of these tax limitations into legalized minimums

the returns to mobility and job search by gender using data from the national longitudinal survey of youth the authors estimate the returns to job search mobility and the interaction of search and mobility for young men and women they find st

a rent seeking model of tels tax and expenditure limits or tels are constitutional or statutory constraints on the fiscal powers of government since the taxpayer revolt beginning in the late 1970s tels have been introduced in twenty three states in recent years a number of studies attempting to test the impact of tels have found little evidence that tels significantly reduced the growth of state government in this study we challenge the implicit leviathan model that underlies most of these studies and offer an alternative rent seeking model econometric tests provide support for this rentseeking model and indicate that tels have been significant in reducing the growth of state government at least in the short run

do trade costs in goods market lead to home bias in equities abstract two of the main puzzles in international economics are the consumption and the portfolio home biases we solve for international equity portfolios in a two country two good stochastic equilibrium model with trade costs in goods markets we show that introducing trade costs as suggested by obstfeld and rogoff obstfeld m rogoff k 2000a the six major puzzles in international macroeconomics is there a common cause nber macroeconomics annual 15 is not sufficient to explain these two puzzles simultaneously on the contrary we find that trade costs create a foreign bias in portfolios for reasonable parameter values this result is robust to the addition of non tradable goods for standard calibrations of the preferences

home bias and high turnover dynamic portfolio choice with incomplete markets why do investors trade a lot in foreign assets and hold so little of them in their portfolios this paper shows that both observations can arise naturally in the presence of nondiversifiable nontraded consumption risk when each country specializes in production preferences exhibit consumption home bias and asset markets are incomplete using a general equilibrium two country two sector tradable and nontradable model of the world economy with production i show that low diversification occurs because variations in relative prices i increase the riskiness of foreign assets and ii facilitate risk sharing across countries large and volatile capital flows are necessary to take advantage of international risk premia differentials that occur in response to productivity changes in the nontradable sector i characterize the optimal portfolio holdings the evolution of the investment opportunity set the risk premium and the dynamics of capital flows using a new methodology for solving dynamic general equilibrium models with incomplete markets and portfolio choice

measuring the gender disparities in unemployment dynamics during the recession evidence from portugal abstractthis article researches gender differences in the incidence and persistence of unemployment during the debt crisis and recession in portugal through estimating a dynamic random effects prob

international portfolio diversification and endogenous labor supply choice abstract this paper presents a multi country general equilibrium model driven by productivity shocks where labor supply and consumption are chosen endogenously we use this framework to study the effect of labor supply for optimal international diversification we find that the model s ability to help explain home bias depends crucially on the level of substitutability between consumption and non working time quantitatively the non separability in the preferences helps in a nonnegligible way but it cannot entirely explain the extreme degree of home bias in u s portfolios

repatriation of debt in the euro crisis with the beginning of the euro crisis the long standing trend of european financial integration reversed investors unwound cross border positions of debt obligations and increased holdings of locally issued debt in other words debt obligations were repatriated we use data on bank portfolios to document three new empirical regularities of the financial disintegration i repatriation affected mainly debt of crisis countries ii repatriation affected mainly public debt iii the public debt of crisis countries that was not repatriated was reallocated to large and politically influential countries within the euro area we read these results in light of standard theories of cross border portfolio allocation and argue that the sum of these patterns constitutes evidence for the secondary market theory of public debt

unemployment rate dynamics and persistent unemployment under rational expectations this paper develops a model of unemployment rate dynamics that provides an explanation of persistent cyclical unemployment that does not involve persistent expectational errors or other nonoptimizing behavior our results are based on the interaction of search dynamics and inventory adjustments an important element in these dynamics appears to be heterogeneity in the labor force which can be characterized as consisting of a relatively small group of high turnover individuals who comprise the bulk of normal unemployment and a larger group of low turnover individuals who dominate movements in cyclical unemployment our empirical results provide support for this theory as we demonstrate that the appropriately measured probability of becoming employed during a recovery falls relative to normal because of the unusually high proportion of low turnover individuals who have lost permanent jobs as aresult recovery is much slower than is indicated by normal relationships although each individual is searching optimally this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

how big are potential welfare gains from international risksharing abstract there is extensive evidence that risksharing across countries is far from perfect some have attributed this to small benefits from risksharing gains from riskpooling that have been reported range from negligible to enormous this paper documents to what extent the results are sensitive to the parameterization of preferences the stochastic process of the endowment and its measurement we find that gains from risksharing are quite sizable for realistic assumptions about the underlying factors for oecd countries they are equivalent to a permanent increase in tradables consumption in the range of 1 1 to 3 5 for a 50 year horizon and 2 5 to 7 4 for a 100 year horizon

nontraded goods nontraded factors and international non diversification abstract can the presence of nontraded consumption goods or nontraded factors of production explain the high degree of home bias displayed by investor portfolios we find that the answer is no so long as individuals have access to free international trade in financial assets in particular it is never optimal to exhibit home bias with respect to domestic traded good equities by contrast holdings of nontraded good equities in an optimal portfolio will depend sensitively on the elasticity of substitution between traded and nontraded goods

home bias in open economy financial macroeconomics standard theory would predict that investors hold a well diversified portfolio of equities across the world but despite the process of financial globalization investors still hold a disproportionate share of local equities in their portfolio the equity home bias french and poterba 1991 we review the various explanations of this puzzling phenomenon in the context of recent developments in macroeconomic modelling that have allowed to incorporate sophisticated international portfolio choices in standard two country general equilibrium models we refer to this literature as open economy financial macroeconomics we focus on three broad classes of explanations i hedging motives in frictionless financial markets real exchange rate and non tradable income risk ii asset trade costs in international financial markets such as transaction costs differences in tax treatments between national and foreign assets iii informational frictions and behavioural biases these recent developments raise the need for new portfolio facts beyond the equity home bias and we will present some new evidence on cross border asset holdings across different types of assets equities bonds and bank lending we also present some new micro data on institutional holdings of equity at the fund level these data should inform macroeconomic modelling of the open economy and a growing literature of models of delegated investment

a positive model of tax structure the model of tax structure developed in this paper is one in which the composition of revenues and the structure of specific taxes arise naturally as the result of self interested political behavior it is assumed that political agents choose tax structure so as to minimize the political costs or expected net loss in votes associated with raising a budget of given size several hypotheses concerning the nature of political cost functions are developed and applied to an explanation of the differences among u s states in their reliance on income taxation the empirical application emphasizes differences in political constraints across jurisdictions in the belief that much can be learned about the choice of policy instruments by studying structural adjustments in response to varying constraints the paper discusses how the proposed approach differs from or is consistent with that adopted by other authors and how the estimating equation relates to other empirical research in the literature

financial education investor protection and international portfolio diversification abstract this paper investigates the effect of financial education on foreign portfolio investment we show that higher investor financial education fosters international diversification and that its role is particularly pronounced where information problems and monitoring costs are likely to be more severe that is in countries where protection of minority shareholders rights is weaker we interpret this evidence as supportive of the conjecture that financial education lessens the informational constraints binding foreign investors

welfare gains from international risksharing abstract this paper uses consumption data to compute yet unexploited welfare gains that can be achieved through risksharing among twenty oecd countries there is both aggregate national consumption risk and nondiversifiable individual specific risk countries engage in an optimal risksharing arrangement to pool risk associated with the aggregate consumption endowment streams welfare gains are associated with reduced consumption variability and with the international pricing of the consumption streams of individual countries the paper considers the standard vnm time additive preferences as well as nonexpected utility and habit formation preferences large unexploited gains are found under all sets of preferences leading to an international risksharing puzzle

what can explain the apparent lack of international consumption risk sharing recent research in international business cycles finds that international consumption comovements do not match the risk sharing predictions of standard complete markets models in this paper i ask whether two different types of explanations can help explain this result 1 nonseparabilities between tradables and nontradable leisure or goods and 2 the effects of capital market restrictions on consumption risk sharing i find that risk sharing cannot be resolved by either explanation alone however when i allow for both nonseparabilities and certain market restrictions risk sharing among unrestricted countries cannot be rejected this evidence suggests that a combination of these two effects may be necessary to explain consumption risk sharing across countries

an empirical analysis of state and local tax structure in the context of the leviathan model of government this paper has investigated the ability of an extreme and relatively simple model of political behavior to explain the level of revenues generated by state and local governments in general the behavior of these governments appears to be at least consistent with many of the fiscal outcomes predicted by the leviathan theory several although not all of the specific leviathan theory hypotheses considered received empirical support the evidence was consistent with the hypothesis that states utilizing comprehensive tax bases especially a personal income tax can be expected to generate higher levels of aggregate revenues strong support was also observed for the contention that intergovernmental competition by general purpose substate governments may serve as a substitute for constitutional constraints in limiting the revenue generating power of local governments

the power to tax analytical foundations of a fiscal constitution preface 1 taxation in constitutional perspective 2 natural government a model of leviathan 3 constraints on base and rate structure 4 the taxation of commodities 5 taxation through time income taxes capital taxes and public debt 6 money creation and taxation 7 the disposition of public revenues 8 the domain of politics 9 open economy federalism and taxing authority 10 toward authentic tax reform prospects and prescriptions epilogue notes selected bibliography index

a multi country real business cycle model with heterogeneous agents a multicountry real business cycle model is developed capturing two important aspects of heterogeneity found in household survey data only a small fraction of the population holds stock and a significant fraction of nonstockholders are borrowing constrained the model is applied to data for twenty oecd countries it generates cross country consumption correlations consistent with those observed in the data potential welfare gains from international portfolio diversification by stockholders are large leaving the observed home bias as a significant puzzle the model can also account for the finding in u s data that consumption of stockholders is more volatile than that of nonstockholders copyright 1996 by the editors of the scandinavian journal of economics

risk sharing within the united states what do financial markets and fiscal federalism accomplish we measure income uncertainty at the level of u s states and the extent to which it has been reduced through risksharing using a method recently developed by athanasoulis and van wincoop 2000 risk is measured as the standard deviation of state specific income growth uncertainty measured by using the error term of a regression of income growth on variables in the information set risk sharing is measured by the extent to which this standard deviation has been reduced through financial markets and federal fiscal policy the advantage of this measure over the existing risk sharing literature is that the interpretation does not depend on many auxiliary assumptions our findings on the extent of risk sharing are insensitive to the only assumption we need to make the variables that are in the information set we find that the standard deviation of state specific income growth uncertainty is reduced by less than half through financial markets and federal fiscal policy we show that the extent of risk sha

the persistence of unemployment in the usa and europe in terms of fractionally arima models this article examines the persistence of unemployment in the usa and four european countries by means of fractionally integrated arma arfima models in doing so a type of flexibility in modelling low frequency dynamics not achieved by non fractionally arima models can be provided the results indicate that the unemployment series are much more persistent in some countries such as the uk and france than in others including germany or the usa

evidence on the dynamics of unemployment by gender we present empirical evidence regarding unemployment dynamics for women and men in eight oecd countries unit root tests are used to examine the unemployment dynamics of women and men failure to reject the unit root hypothesis is consistent with unemployment hysteresis rejection of the unit root hypothesis indicates that unemployment dynamics are best explained by the natural rate of unemployment or the structuralist view we find evidence of gender differences in unemployment dynamics in canada germany and the us but not in other countries while there are some differences in the extent of persistence across gender and across countries the degree of persistence for both female and male unemployment rates is fairly low in all countries our results therefore contrast with substantial empirical evidence of high levels of unemployment persistence in european countries

a median voter analysis of variations in the use of property taxes among local governments this paper explores the variations among local governments in the composition of tax revenues or more specifically in the relative use of property taxes using a median voter framework various hypotheses are developed concerning the factors that should influence the relative use of property taxes a cross sectional sample of central cities is employed to test the hypotheses the empirical results are consistent with the hypotheses

a theory of competition among pressure groups for political influence this paper presents a theory of competition among pressure groups for political influence political equilibrium depends on the efficiency of each group in producing pressure the effect of additional pressure on their influence the number of persons in different groups and the deadweight cost of taxes and subsidies an increase in deadweight costs discourages pressure by subsidized groups and encourages pressure by taxpayers this analysis unifies the view that governments correct market failures with the view that they favor the politically powerful both are produced by the competition for political favors

home asset preference and productivity shocks abstract this paper presents sufficient conditions for the domestic investor consumer to hold in equilibrium a disproportionate share of domestic assets the analysis is carried out in a general equilibrium framework of products and assets markets when the source of the uncertainty is productivity shocks in the nontraded goods industries in the asset markets we allow trade in instruments with a payoff which is not necessarily positively correlated with the price of the consumption good as the instruments considered in the existing literature consequently in our analysis in contrast to the existing literature hedging against price uncertainty is neither necessary nor sufficient for home asset preference

home bias and international risk sharing twin puzzles separated at birth abstract we document that international home bias in debt and equity holdings declined during the period 1993 2003 at the same time as international risk sharing increased using panel data regressions for oecd countries we demonstrate that less home bias is associated with more international risk sharing more generally we show that more financial integration is associated with more risk sharing when we measure financial integration as the ratio of foreign assets to gross domestic product our results indicate that risk sharing and international financial integration are closely related empirical phenomena

differences of opinion and international equity markets we develop an international financial market model in which domestic and foreign residents differ in their beliefs about the information content in public signals we determine how informational advantages of domestic investors in the interpretation of home public signals affect equity markets we evaluate the ability of our model to generate four international finance anomalies i the co movement of returns and capital flows ii home equity preference iii the dependence of firm returns on home and foreign factors and iv abnormal returns around foreign firm cross listing in the home market their relationships with empirical differences of opinion proxies are consistent with the model received january 15 2011 editorial decision may 16 2016 by editor geert bekaert