an empirical examination of the implications of arbitrage pricing theory abstract this paper presents a comprehensive set of tests of the implications of the arbitrage pricing theory we find unlike previously reported results a very limited relationship between the expected returns and the covariance factor loadings measures of risk furthermore unique variance measures of risk while generally making only small contributions to the explanation of asset returns turn out to be significant about as frequently as the coveriance measures of risk which is inconsistent with the arbitrage pricing theory model the intercept tests are more mixed but provide only limited support to the model

employment adjustment versus hours adjustment is job security desirable firms can adjust to shocks by laying off and hiring workers or by adjusting the hours worked by each worker adjustment of hours provides job security for employed workers adjustment of employment generates higher labor market turnover and thus better job prospects for the unemployed since high turnover lowers the expected cost of being laid off by reducing the expected duration of unemployment there is a strategic complementarity between firms in the provision of job security this gives the possibility of multiple equilibria with different amounts of turnover copyright 1995 by the london school of economics and political science

labor unions and the adoption of new technology the paper examines whether unionization by workers discourages the adoption of labor saving techniques this is done in the context of an oligopolistic industry with a small number of firms some of which are unionized we find that unionization can actually encourage the adoption of labor saving technology provided that the technological improvement is mild and that demand is sufficiently high or demand elasticity sufficiently low if there is an effective threat of entry that causes the union to moderate its wage demands then unionization may encourage the adoption of new technology even at low levels of demand

aspects of labor market adjustments in japan this article discusses some aspects of labor market adjustments in japan that may be relevant to the low unemployment rate there japanese statistics treat kyugyosha persons not at work as being employed but some of these workers would be counted as unemployed in the united states the kyugyosha group appears to increase in size during downturns and decreases during upturns suggesting that temporarily laid off persons are an important part of this group japanese employers evidently rely less on employment adjustments and more on adjustments in hours of work and inventory while employers in the united states rely more on employment adjustments to deal with cyclical changes in product demand japanese manufacturing employment became less sensitive and hours of work more sensitive to demand shocks after the introduction of the employment insurance law in 1975

the role of unions in hospital cost inflation this study examines the impact of unions on worker compensation and total costs in hospitals both in specific departments and in the hospital as a whole an analysis of data for 367 hospitals for the years 1974 and 1977 shows that unions raised the mean compensation of hospital workers by 8 8 percent without producing offsetting increases in worker productivity thus unions do increase hospital costs although far less than health insurance and other factors do

labor migration and risk aversion in less developed countries in this paper we question the pioneering work of todaro which states that rural to urban labor migration in less developed countries ldcs is an individual response to a higher urban expected income we demonstrate that rural to urban labor migration is perfectly rational even if urban expected income is lower than rural income we achieve this under a set of fairly stringent conditions an individual decision making entity a one period planning horizon and global risk aversion we obtain the result that a small chance of reaping a high reward is sufficient to trigger rural to urban labor migration

a note on factor analysis and arbitrage pricing theory abstract this paper examines some theoretical and empirical properties of factor analysis and spells out their implications for arbitrage pricing theory apt doubts on the appropriateness of conventional factor analytic procedures for testing apt are raised on theoretical as well as empirical grounds

basic research and productivity increase in manufacturing additional evi dence in a recent paper in this review edwin mansfield illustrated empirically using a sample of ten petroleum and six chemical firms that firm rates of productivity change are related to the amount of companyfinanced basic research performed certeris paribus in this note additional evidence is presented which is supportive of mansfield s findings this analysis is based on a sample of fifty one major manufacturing firms active in r d it is unique in that the impacts of company financeda nd governmentfinancedb asic researche xpendituresa re consideredd eterminantso f productivityg rowth the following model was estimated

industrial relations performance economic performance and qwl programs an interplant analysis this study analyzes the relationship among plant level measures of industrial relations performance economic performance and quality of working life programs the analysis employs pooled time series and cross section data from 18 plants within a division of general motors for the years 1970 79 the empirical results show strong associations between industrial relations and economic performance measures and limited support for the hypothesis that quality of working life efforts improve both kinds of performance

measuring the effects of regulation with stock price data this article examines the usefulness of stock returns in measuring the effects of regulation when the dates on which market expectations change are not known and standard sources e g the wall street journal are used to choose announcement dates twenty major changes in regulatory constraint since 1887 are considered tests using either monthly or daily data are found to have surprisingly little ability to detect the effects of regulation the evidence shows that formal regulatory announcements are generally anticipated in cases where it is unclear when expectations change

the intertemporal stability of the concentration margins relationship using a longitudinal data base we find that there has been a substantial narrowing of the spread between the price cost margins of concentrated and unconcentrated industries including measures of macroeconomic fluctuations into standard price cost margin regressions we find significant differences in cyclical behavior across market structure we also explore a possible explanation unionization for differences in cyclical behavior finally we investigate the degree to which our results are affected by the potential simultaneity of concentration advertising and the price cost margin

the effect of discrimination and of industry segmentation on japanese wage differentials in relation to education abstract the paper investigates japanese wage differentials based on the concept of industrial division the labor market is examined for two sectors separately namely competitive sectors and non competitive sectors the effects of female male difference of human capital and of occupation also are examined and the cost of discrimination is estimated by applying several quantitative methods it was found that worker characteristics such as education length of service and age were treated differently by sector sex and occupation also wage differentials by sex were mostly rooted in differential treatment of worker characteristics while wage differentials by sector were explained largely by firm size component the above general results however are greatly modified by workers occupations and industrial divisions

enterprise unionism the japanese system at work trade unions japanese unions at work the japanese labour market has worked quite well over recent decades whereas the european economies have produced more and more unemployment a popular hypothesis is that this difference can be attributed to unions while in europe unions are strong and centralized and do not care about the individual firm the japanese unions are enterprise unions which deal directly with and understand the heal management employers in japan in turn consult unions and employees on all relevant management decisions this corporatism finally ensures that workers are more motivated and have a higher productivity it is the central conjecture of this paper that the presence of unions increases the voice of the employees significantly by using innovative new firm data it is shown that this is actually the case hence japanese enterprise unions are not harmful but foster information sharing and contribute to the performance of the enterprise toshiaki tachibanaki and tomohiko noda

why u s wage and employment behavior differs from that in britain and japan if a poll were to be conducted among american academic economists to select the most mystifying economic phenomenon of our time surely the sticky nominal wage rate would emerge at or near the top of the list the slow and partial response of the nominal wage rate to changes in aggregate nominal spending has been a central postulate of macroeconomic theory for the past 45 years from keynes general theory down to the standard postwar textbook keynesian paradigm to the more modern fixed wage price models of robert barro and herschel grossman i976 and edmond malinvaud i977 unwilling passively to accept nominal wage rigidity as an unexplained assumption many labour market theorists have followed the lead of costas azariadis i975 and martin baily i974 in building models to explain rigid wages and layoff unemployment as the rational outcome of a profit maximising calculus as i pointed out in an early critique of the azariadis baily model i976a their assumptions cannot explain cycles in employment but rather why workers would want fixed incomes i e a fixed wage rate and fixed employment soon thereafter barro i977 went one step further and argued that contract theory is a facade which cannot explain why workers would choose a rigid wage and variable employment in preference to the classical equilibrium quantity of employment that equates the marginal product of labour with the marginal value of time now an examination of the evidence has led me to the realisation that rigid wages cannot provide the underpinnings for a universally valid theory of the business cycle simply because wages are not universally rigid i document below with postwar quarterly data that the share of fluctuations in the manufacturing wage bill taking the form of nominal wage changes as compared to changes in hours worked is five to ten times greater in britain and japan than in

structural adjustment and the japanese textile industry a production theory approach the production theory approach for modelling trade in intermediate goods is applied to dervie export supply and import demand functions for the japanese textile industry the estimated elasticities provide insight into the process of internal adjustment and structural change reflected in the declining international competitiveness of the japanese textile sector estimation issues related to endogeneity tests and the concavity restictions implied by economic theory are highlighted in the econometric results estimated trade balance adjustments are derived from the parameter estimates of the export supply and import demand functionf for the japanese textile sector

trends in unemployment wages and productivity the case of japan along with the high savings ratio the functioning of the labour market is one of the most important factors behind the macroeconomic performance of the postwar japan which foreign observers have christened the miracle of the rising sun in the first place the nature of the japanese labour market is important for the long run trend of japanese economic growth because labour and its quality are crucial factors for economic development the high quality of a well disciplined workforce as well as the migration of labour from rural to urban areas has contributed much to the rapid growth of the japanese economy second the nature of the labour market has influenced the pattern of japanese business cycles by buffering demand fluctuations the slow response of firms demand for labour combined with the fast response of the labour force participation ratio has prevented a sharp increase in the unemployment rate during recessions relatively flexible nominal and real wages have also enabled the japanese economy to adjust quite smoothly to supply shocks notably after the second oil crisis in this paper we shall review trends in unemployment wages and productivity in the postwar japanese economy and relate them to its macroeconomic performance we shall also summarize the current literature concerning features of the labour market evaluate quantitative estimates of trends in labour statistics and explore future prospects

market constraints as a rationale for the friedman savage utility function since the classic paper by friedman and savage 1948 it has generally been accepted that the observed fact that individuals or firms participate in unfair lotteries and other forms of unfair risk taking may be explained by a section in the individual s utility function in which the individual shows risk preference rather than risk aversion in their model friedman and savage specify a utility function which is in turn concave convex and concave thus allowing for simultaneous purchase of insurance risk aversion and participation in lotteries risk preference however while their specified utility function is indeed capable of explaining observed behavior it does seem to be rather unsatisfactory in that it is an ad hoc specification it is the purpose of this paper to suggest a set of circumstances which give rise to a friedmansavage type utility function in particular it is shown that when certain capital market imperfections exist the utility function defined over intermediate wealth should be distinguished from and may have different properties than the one defined on final wealth then even if we accept the common assumption made in the literature that individuals are risk averse that is that their utility function is concave over final wealth it is still possible that they participate in unfair gambling and of course may also purchase insurance

an analysis of trends in female labor force participation in japan until recently the aggregate female labor force participation rate in japan has shown a secular declining trend throughout the postwar period of economic development participation of paid female employees alone exhibits a steadily rising trend more or less comparable to that in the united states and european countries although the fertility rate dropped drastically shortly after world war ii in the subsequent period increases in female education and a relative improvement of female wages appear to have promoted a substantial increase in paid female employment labor supply equations for paid employees estimated from time series data provide negative income and positive wage elasticities cross sectional analysis gives reasonable results particularly for middle age wives absolute values of estimated wage elasticity notably have almost always been smaller than income elasticity unlike many research findings in the united states

the effects of unions on employment and productivity an unresolved contradiction the evidence that unions substantially increase productivity is contradicted by the evidence that the effect of unions on employment is small it is shown in this paper that if the union is constrained by the firm s demand function and it is the efficiency units of labor that are in the demand function then essentially the only way to resolve this contradiction is for unions to raise the productivity of capital and not of labor under conditions where the substitutability between labor and capital is very limited but estimates of the substitutability parameter are near unity so that one of these effects must be wrong either unions do not substantially increase productivity or they substantially reduce employment

a critical reexamination of the empirical evidence on the arbitrage pricing theory this paper demonstrates that the roll and ross rr and other previously published tests of the apt are subject to several basic limitations there is a general nonequivalence of factor analyzing small groups of securities and factor analyzing a group of securities sufficiently large for the apt model to hold it is found that as one increases the number of securities the number of factors determined increases this increase in the number of factors with larger groups of securities cannot readily be explained by a distinction between priced and nonpriced risk factors as it is impermissible to carry out tests on whether a given risk factor is priced using factor analytic procedures the apt model as exposited by ross 17 18 and extended by huberman 9 has provided the basis of an extensive literature as for example brown and weinstein 1 chen 3 hughes 10 ingersoll 11 jobson 12 reinganum 15 roll and ross rr 16 and shanken 17 to mention but a few it has also been treated in a more general context by chamberlain and rothschild 2 our purpose here is not to comment on this collection of papers many of which are unpublished but to reexamine the evidence presented by rr and point out major pitfalls involved in the empirical methodology employed by them and others who have followed their lead rr claim that on theoretical and more importantly on empirical grounds arbitrage pricing theory apt is an attractive alternative to the capital asset pricing model capm the apt it is argued requires less stringent and presumably more plausible assumptions is more readily testable since it does not require the measurement of the market portfolio and may be better able to explain the anomalies found in the application of the capm to asset returns the acceptability of the apt like that of the capm or any other theory ultimately depends on its ability to explain the relevant empirical evidence our subsequent discussion will show that many of the prqblems associated with the capm are also present in the apt context and that its ability to explain the relevant empirical evidence is not markedly superior moreover it raises questions not only about the rr and related empirical investigations of the apt but also about the testability of that theory in the present state of the art a major part of the problem results from the necessity to break down the universe being analyzed through the apt model this is forced upon the investigator by the fact

induced global risk preference abstract risk preference may be induced by scale economies unrelated to taste structure for an important set of functions exhibiting scale economies we give a the necessary condition for global risk preference induction and b sufficient conditions that preserve risk aversion

risk preference and the work leisure trade off the paper investigates the interrelationships between the wage rate period of employment work leisure choice and the attitude toward risk the model makes risk preference endogenous given external forces acting on individual choice beginning with assumptions normally considered consistent with risk aversion namely concave utility with respect to leisure and wealth along with perfect markets rational behavior consistent with the insurance buying gambler is shown to be a reasonable possibility the theory also provides an explanation for the repeating gambler paradox

gambles and the shadow price of death recent papers on the value of life involve preferences of the sort introduced by milton friedman and leonard savage 1948 1 given the choice between undergoing a particular gamble in wealth and possessing the mathematical expectation of the payoffs of the gamble the consumers in these studies may prefer the gamble the presence of such risk loving preferences is inferred from two well established facts life is an indivisible commodity in the models and indivisibility leads to preference for gambles the former fact is made clear by philip cook and daniel graham the latter was first noted by yew kwang ng 1965 and is widely known in spite of the obvious connection the implications of risk loving tastes in this area have not been explored this paper examines some implications of such risk loving the idea that indivisibility produces friedman savage preferences and that such preferences create a demand for gambles is extended in section i to a theory of demand for indivisible goods and derived demand for associated optimum gambles this theory suggests that the price of an indivisible good will not compensate for possessing or not possessing the good section ii applies the demand theory to an equilibrium model of labor supply that is relevant to the determination of the value of life in this model the wage diflerential is useful in guiding policy toward public risks in spite of the fact that the differential is not compensating i demand for gambles and demand for goods

syndication institutionalization and lottery play1 why do people play the lottery since lottery tickets are assets with negative expected return lottery play challenges the basic assumptions of economic theory this article approaches lottery play from a networks perspective and focuses on syndicate play a comparison of the development of lottery markets in germany austria spain and portugal from the 17th century onward shows that lottery play declined with rising incomes except in countries in which syndicate play diffused widely namely spain and to a lesser extent portugal although syndicating originated among the relatively poor as a response to an increase in lottery prices it persisted even when individual play became affordable this article contends that syndicating endured because of an institutionalization process by which lottery tickets have transformed from purely economic assets into symbolic carriers of interpersonal ties that convey membership and status position in relevant social networks

labour supply and unemployment in japan abstract the paper investigated the relationship between labour supply and unemployment employment in japan the paper focused on the discouraged worker effect which specifies that a large number of workers in particular female labour forces retire from the labour market in a recession this lowers the rate of the published unemployment the paper estimated the labour supply function and presented the estimated figures of the modified or adjusted rate of unemployment finally the okun s coefficient was re estimated by using this modified rate of unemployment

relative prices and the demand for labour in british manufacturing the existence of an aggregate demand for labour schedule derived from profit maximization of the individual firm and giving a negative relationship between the labour capital ratio and the real wage is central to most traditional theoretical macroeconomics even though such a relationship is typically not embodied in macroeconomic models but beginning with the work of dunlop 1938 and tarshis 1939 the negative relationship could not be found in the data a more modern reference is bodkin 1969 this evidence led naturally to disequilibrium analysis notably that of barro and grossman 1971 more recently sargent 1978 has attempted with some success to rehabilitate the demand for labour schedule by showing that costly adjustment of the workforce obscures the current relationship between the wage and labour demand while leaving it essentially intact that paper and the related one by neftci 1978 was criticized by geary and kennan 1979 because it had used retail prices to represent output prices and they showed that for a number of countries employment could not be explained satisfactorily by the real product wage however geary and kennan failed to allow for the simultaneous effect of the real prices of raw materials and capital services in this paper we shall see that allowing for the effects of other relative prices notably the price of inputs relative to output and the real interest rate the real wage has a powerful but slow acting negative effect on the demand for labour the long run elasticity is about 2 and the mean lag is over 18 months we also find that the price of inputs has a long run elasticity of about 2 and that high values of the real interest rate have a powerful depressant effect on the level of employment in manufacturing the most striking implication for policy of our analysis is that measures of demand output money government spending do not have a significant influence on manufacturing employment controlling for the effects of relative prices thus government macroeconomic policy can affect the level of employment in manufacturing if and only if it can affect relative prices

unionization and profitability evidence from the capital market this paper examines the effect of unionization on the profitability of firms abnormal monthly common stock returns for a sample of 253 nyse listed firms are estimated for the month in which the union petitions for an election and for the month in which the national labor relations board certifies the election outcome the results suggest that unionization on average is associated with a reduction in equity value when unions win an election the average loss associated with the unionization drive is 3 8 percent of equity value when unions lose an election there is an average net reduction of 1 3 percent in the equity value of the firm

the decentralization of collective bargaining a literature review and comparative analysis the author reviews evidence that the bargaining structure is becoming more decentralized in sweden australia the former west germany italy the united kingdom and the united states although in

the relationship between production and unemployment in japan okun s law in comparative perspective abstract this paper studies the question whether the celebrated okun s law a relation between excess capacity and unemployment applies to the postwar japanese economy though the fitness of estimation is weak the coefficient that measures the responsiveness of the output gap to the unemployment rate is very large reaching 28 this large coefficient can be attributed to the elastic response in the female participation ratio to flexible working hours to the slow adjustment in employment and to changes in industrial structures the results are compared with those in the united states

neoclassical demand for labour functions for six major economies can real factor prices and in particular the real wage explain the level of employment over the business cycle the question is of fundamental importance for macroeconomic policy and is of course the subject of longstanding controversy dunlop i938 failed to find the expected negative relationship between employment and the wage in the data and the subsequent debate is summarised in bodkin i969 crudely the data seemed to refute the competitive model of the labour market for if product markets are competitive and firms operate on their demand curves employment should be explained by real factor prices relative to product prices the capital stock and the state of technology to explain the lack of relationship barro and grossman i97i suggested that at times mutuality reinforcing quantity constraints could emerge in labour and output markets so that firms employed fewer workers than one would predict from the level of real wages and other relative prices however recently sargent i978 has attempted with some success to rehabilitate the demand for labour function by showing that costly adjustment of the workforce obscures the current relationship between the wage and labour demand while leaving it essentially intact in his account firms adjust slowly towards an employment level which is influenced by future expected real wages which might themselves reflect the past history of real wages his paper and the related one by neftci i978 was criticised by geary and kennan i979 for using retail prices to represent output prices and they showed for a number of countries that employment could not be satisfactorily explained by the real product wage taken on its own however geary and kennan failed to allow for the simultaneous effect of the real price of raw materials in symons i 982 one of us showed that allowing for this effect the real wage has a powerful elasticity about 2 but slow acting two year mean lag negative effect of the demand for labour in british manufacturing this was strong evidence but it was not completely conclusive the model fitted well only over subperiods and whereas the various breakdowns of the model could be ascribed to firms discounting certain transient shifts in the real wage there still seemed to be scope for reasonable doubt about the results however recently andrews and nickell i 982 a b working with annual rather than quarterly data and for the british economy as a whole have developed a demand for labour function with similar dynamics and with signifi

fixed cost of work and the demand for lotteries abstract a fixed cost of work is sufficient to induce risk averse individuals who obey the expected utility hypothesis to demand lotteries the critical assumption needed to generate this demand is that leisure is a normal good

new tests of the apt and their implications this paper provides new tests of the arbitrage pricing theory apt test results appear to be extremely sensitive to the number of securities used in the two stages of the tests of the apt model new tests also indicate that unique risk is fully as important as common risk while these tests have serious limitations they are inconsistent with the apt

the importance of lifetime jobs in the u s economy though the u s labor market is justly notorious for high turnover and consequent high unemployment it also provides stable near lifetime employment to an important fraction of the labor force this paper investigates patterns of job duration by age race and sex with the following major conclusions 1 the typical worker today is holding a job which has lasted or will last about eight years over a quarter of all workers are holding jobs which will last twenty years or more sixty percent hold jobs which will last five years or more 2 the jobs held by middle aged workers with more than ten years of tenure are extremely stable over the span of a decade only twenty to thirty percent come to an end 3 among workers aged thirty and above about forty percent are currently working in jobs which eventually will last twenty years or more three quarters are in jobs which will last five years or more 4 the duration of employment among blacks is just as long as among whites even though the jobs held by blacks are worse in almost every other dimension they are no more unstable than those held by whites 5 women s jobs are substantially shorter than men s on the average only about a quarter of all women over the age of thirty are employed in jobs which will last over twenty years whereas over half of men over thirty are holding these near lifetime jobs this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the effects of grievance activity on productivity this study develops and tests a production function that includes a plant s grievance filing rate as a determinant of productivity application of that function to data on nine unionized paper mill

excess labour and the business cycle a comparative study of japan germany the united kingdom and the united states against the background of firm specific human capital theory this paper investigates empirically the relative propensity of manufacturing industries in japan germany the united kingdom and the united states to hold excess labour over the business cycle both stock and utilization dimensions of the labour input are integrated into the study throughout discussion is linked to earlier research that has analysed the relative international performance of the japanese labour market

wage rigidity and unemployment in oecd countries real wage rigidity is often blamed for causing unemployment in the wake of adverse real shocks like changes in productivity or the terms of trade likewise nominal wage rigidity is blamed for causing unemployment in the wake of adverse nominal shocks like falls in nominal demand 1 however there has been relatively little systematic discussion of how these concepts should be defined some authors e g sachs 1979 have defined real wage rigidity as the opposite of nominal wage rigidity with the us nominally rigid and europe really rigid 2 the rigidity of european real wages has then been used to explain why europe has experienced a greater increase in unemployment since 1973 than the us but in this discussion real wage rigidity has not been measured in a way which would in fact predict how much unemployment would result from a given real shock the discussion has focused on the degree of nominal inertia in the system but the unemployment cost of real shocks does not depend primarily on the degree of nominal inertia but rather on the effect of unemployment in the phillips curve

an intertemporal analysis of the interdependence between risk preference retirement and work rate decisions indivisibilities in consumption investment choice of employment and so forth have been used by others to justify the behavior of the insurance buying gambler unfortunately these theories ignore the market incentives to make the indivisible divisible through leasing or variation in quality as well as individual initiative through borrowing and lending in this paper the same behavior toward risk is explained without resort to indivisibilities or market imperfections using the effect of work rates and retirement decisions on lifetime earning profiles this is done using assumptions normally consistent with risk aversion diminishing marginal utility of consumption and time separable utility

a critical reexamination of the empirical evidence on the arbitrage pricing theory a reply the paper by dhrymes friend and gultekin dfg in this issue criticizes empirical work on the arbitrage pricing theory apt conducted by ourselves rr 3 and by a number of others we are honored that such eminent professors as dfg have taken an interest in our work unfortunately the dfg paper contains analysis which might foster misconceptions in the casual reader our purpose here is to present a brief nontechnical comment we are confident that those who are inclined to study the dfg paper in detail will be able to discern its merit for themselves the introductory section and the concluding section viii of dfg stress three points first that the method of rr has major pitfalls and is seriously flawed second that individual factors should not be tested for their pricing influence and third that more than three to five factors can be found by increasing the size of the group analyzed we will comment on the reasonableness of the second and third point in some detail the first is a value judgment and as such cannot be disputed on logical grounds we would be the last to object to a reasoned opinion judiciously drawn by dispassionate and unbiased scholars but of course we do not agree with the particular opinion expressed by dfg in sections i and ii dfg repeat the standard development of the apt and make much of the argument that the apt as a null hypothesis in a statistical test is independent of any rotation of the factors they stress their view that the only meaningful tests are those of whether any factors are priced rather than those which test whether some of them are priced and others are not rr raise and analyze precisely this same point 1 and in fact our awareness of this issue led us to conduct f tests of the joint significance of all factor prices see our tables iv and vi despite the rotation problem tests of individual factor pricing have meaning since the factors are extracted in the order of their importance in explaining the covariance matrix of returns it is not only perfectly valid it is also interesting to ascertain if they each have an influence upon pricing the number of statistically significant estimated priced factors can be different than the number of true factors because of chance rotation in the

individual vs aggregate preferences the case of a small fish in a big pond we study the relationship between the risk preferences of individuals and the risk preferences of the aggregate economy to emphasize the vast differences that can occur between individual and market preferences brought about through aggregation we assume an economy consisting entirely of risk seekers we show that such individuals can lead to an aggregate economy that is risk averse the converse is also true an aggregate economy that exhibits risk aversion does not imply an economy of individual risk averters an economy demanding a risk premium can be formed from individuals who do not demand such compensation understanding the relationship between the preferences of individuals and the preferences of the aggregate economy is crucial for understanding the connection between the behavioral finance literature which focuses on individual preferences and the asset pricing literature which focuses on aggregate prices we discuss empirical implications of these results this paper was accepted by wei xiong finance

regional inflation spatial locations and the balassa samuelson effect evidence from japan we empirically analyse regional inflation using data from japan where there is no regulation to impede the free movement of labour capital goods and services across regions in particular our analysis will focus on the geographical location of regions and the productivity known as the balassa samuelson bs effect as explanations for the dynamics of regional inflation based on a spatial model which is consistent with the theoretical specification of the bs we have confirmed that while it is a relatively small country in terms of land area both spatial location and productivity are important determinants of regional inflation

union effects on productivity profits and growth has the long run arrived this article interprets literature examining union effects on economic performance production function studies indicate small overall union impacts on productivity positive effects where they exist appear to result from management response to decreased profit expectations and from a natural selection process lower profitability among unionized firms is well established more interesting is the possibility that unions appropriate quasi rents deriving from long lived tangible and intangible capital the connection between unions investment behavior and productivity growth emerges as a particularly fruitful line of empirical inquiry although it does not encourage a sanguine view of unionism s long run impact

risk preferences and transaction costs kahneman and tversky have collected evidence of behavior in the face of risk which is seemingly at odds with von neumann morgenstern expected utility theory to account for their observations they propose a new approach which they christen prospect theory this note argues that introducing transactions costs into expected utility theory systematically accounts for many empirical results without unduly straining the conventional analysis it may therefore be premature to abandon expected utility theory

an investigation of the determinants of manufacturing employment in the united kingdom in this paper we present and estimate an adjustment cost model of industry employment which takes explicit account of both expectations and aggregation over different labour types the resulting model is subject to a large number of tests and is a highly robust representation of the data finally forecasts are produced for manufacturing employment up to 1990

the returns to labour services in west german manufacturing industry production functions distinguishing between the stock and utilisation dimensions of factor labour and capital inputs are critically surveyed an extension to the existing literature is suggested whereby normal and overtime hours are separated within an appropriate non linear functional specification the econometric performance of this model is then compared with the main alternatives from the existing literature the empirical work is based on pooled cross section time series data which refer to west german manufacturing industries 1968 1978 estimates of the returns to labour services are also discussed in the light of related theoretical aspects of factor demand functions