which fiscal multipliers are regime dependent a meta regression analysis we analyse whether estimated multiplier effects are systematically higher if the economy suffers a downturn for that purpose we conduct a meta regression analysis on a unique data set of 98 empirical studies with more than 1800 observations on multiplier effects and control for regime dependence of the multiplier we find that spending multipliers are much higher by about 0 7 0 9 units during a downturn tax multipliers are not sensitive to the economic regime and generally lower than spending multipliers finally for all spending categories other than government consumption the multiplier significantly exceeds one during downturns

wheat from chaff meta analysis as quantitative literature review abstract this paper presents and develops a quantitative method of literature reviewing and evaluating empirical research meta regression analysis or mra economics is theory driven yet we must learn empirically if economics is to advance mra offers a more objective statistical method to summarize our empirical knowledge and to explain the wide study to study variation in economic research mra is used to assess the evidence for ricardian equivalence and its findings are contrasted to those of conventional narrative review furthermore mra establishes a platform from which to distinguish genuine empirical effect from the exploitable specification error that infests applied econometrics

marshall s scale economies using panel data this paper estimates plant level production functions for machinery and high tech industries that allow for scale externalities from other plants in the same industry locally and from the scale or diversity of local economic activity outside the own industry the paper finds that the count of other own industry plants representing a count of local information spillover sources has strong productivity effects in high tech but not machinery industries single plant firms both benefit more from and generate greater external benefits than corporate plants given their greater reliance on external environments on dynamic externalities high tech single plant firms benefit also from the scale of past own industry activity i find little evidence of economies from the diversity or scale of local economic activity outside the own industry

risk aversion and the recommended hedging ratio in a recent article in this journal kahl reviewed the existing literature on the determination of optimal futures and cash market positions the optimal hedging ratios were found to depend on whether the cash position was treated as endogenous or predetermined and some general implications were set forth the surprising conclusion was that the optimal hedging ratio is independent of the individual s risk aversion even though the optimal positions in the cash and futures markets are themselves not independent of the risk parameter kahl demonstrates that this conclusion

micro data heterogeneity and the evaluation of public policy nobel lecture this paper summarizes the contributions of microeconometrics to economic knowledge four main themes are developed 1 microeconometricians developed new tools to respond to econometric problems raised by the analysis of the new sources of micro data produced after the second world war 2 microeconometrics improved on aggregate time series methods by building models that linked economic models for individuals to data on individual behavior 3 an important empirical regularity detected by the field is the diversity and heterogeneity of behavior this heterogeneity has profound consequences for economic theory and for econometric practice 4 microeconometrics has contributed substantially to the scientific evaluation of public policy

income generating effects of biofuel policies a meta analysis of the cge literature abstract while the production of biofuels has expanded in recent years findings in the literature on its impact on economic growth and development remain contradictory this paper presents a meta analysis of computable general equilibrium cge studies published between 2006 and 2017 on the effect of biofuel production on economic development worldwide using 30 cge studies we found that biofuel supportive policies generated significant impacts on gdp and household incomes cge studies included in our database reported an average 0 25 percentage point increase in gdp and a 0 49 percentage point increase in household incomes we also found that results were driven by several key features of the cge studies included in our database we investigated features such as biofuel type geographic area and characteristics of the cge models employed we found that biofuel expansion has heterogeneous effects in developed versus emerging countries simulations on longer time periods and in multi country studies led to results that indicate higher impacts of biofuel expansion on gdp growth and household incomes moreover simulations with an increase in agricultural productivity indicate positive welfare impact gains unlike simulations with land expansion lastly we found that biodiesel development leads to higher welfare impact gains than that of bioethanol

why do farmers have so little interest in futures markets a farm financial model with leverage and investment in two farm enterprises is specified the model is extended to incorporate futures hedging and the separation theorem is used to show that optimal hedging is zero the assumption of a risk free asset is relaxed and while this leads to a violation of the separation theorem the result that optimal hedging is zero is maintained providing that futures markets are efficient it is concluded that if capital markets are efficient then farmers will have little interest in futures markets except to speculate

the financial development and growth nexus a meta analysis this is the accepted manuscript the final version is available from wiley at http onlinelibrary wiley com doi 10 1111 joes 12086 abstract

financial development and economic growth a meta analysis we analyze 1334 estimates from 67 studies that examine the effect of financial development on economic growth taken together the studies imply a positive and statistically significant effect but the individual estimates vary widely we find that both research design and heterogeneity in the underlying effect play a role in explaining the differences in results studies that do not address endogeneity tend to overstate the effect of finance on growth while the effect seems to be weaker in less developed countries the effect decreases worldwide after the 1980s our results also suggest that stock markets support faster economic growth than other financial intermediaries

geography industrial organization and agglomeration this paper makes two contributions to the empirical literature on agglomeration economies first the paper uses a unique and rich database in conjunction with mapping software to measure the geographic extent of agglomerative externalities previous papers have been forced to assume that agglomeration economies are club goods that operate at a metropolitan scale second the paper tests for the existence of organizational agglomeration economies of the kind studied qualitatively by saxenian 1994 this is a potentially important source of increasing returns that previous empirical work has not considered results indicate that localization economies attenuate rapidly and that industrial organization affects the benefits of agglomeration

the use and abuse of meta analysis in environmental and natural resource economics an assessment motivated by the 2006 report of a work group appointed by the environmental protection agency epa this paper examines the present state of meta analysis in environmental economics and offers recommendations for its future use to this end we summarize and assess 140 meta analyses from 125 published and unpublished studies covering 17 topical categories in environmental and resource economics first we provide several generic meta analysis models as reference points and discuss major estimation issues five econometric issues are identified as part of a complete analysis 1 sample selection criteria 2 basic data summary 3 primary data heterogeneity 4 heteroskedasticity and 5 non independence of multiple observations from primary studies second a tabular summary is presented for the 140 meta analyses with respect to estimation methods third a narrative summary is presented for 19 meta analyses including the three value of statistical life studies examined by the epa work group and one analysis from each of 16 other categories fourth we offer a set of best practice guidelines for future meta analyses in this and other areas of economics last the paper comments on the use of meta analytic methods for benefit transfers of environmental values

are women really more risk averse than men a re analysis of the literature using expanded methods while a substantial literature in economics and finance has concluded that women are more risk averse than men this conclusion merits investigation after briefly clarifying the difference between making generalizations about groups on the one hand and making valid inferences from samples on the other this essay suggests improvements to how economists communicate our research results supplementing findings of statistical significance with quantitative measures of both substantive difference cohen s d a measure in common use in non economics literatures and of substantive overlap the index of similarity newly proposed here adds important nuance to the discussion of sex differences these measures are computed from the data on men women and risk used in 35 scholarly works from economics finance and decision science the results are considerably more mixed and overlapping than would commonly be inferred from the broad claims made in the literature with standardized differences in means mostly amounting to considerably less than one standard deviation and the degree of overlap between male and female distributions generally exceeding 80 in addition studies that look at contextual influences suggest that these contribute importantly to observations of differences both between and within the sexes

governance and deforestation a meta analysis in economics abstract understanding which aspects of forest governance have the potential to effectively reduce deforestation is central to reversing trends in global deforestation there is a multitude of empirical studies examining this relationship using various measures of governance and study designs coming to diverse conclusions in order to identify the source of variation across studies this article conducts a meta analysis of 32 empirical cross country studies in the field of economics containing 227 estimates of the impact of different governance measures on deforestation using an ordered probit model we find that the choice of the governance measure is the main factor in explaining variations in the outcomes of the studies in particular studies using environmental policy ownership rights presence of environmental ngos and rule of law as measures of governance are more likely to find that better governance reduces deforestation in contrast studies using democracy and rights as a measure of governance are more likely to find that deforestation increases when governance is improved the finding that not all aspects of governance improvements are equally supportive of forest conservation suggests that more nuanced analyses of specific aspects of environmental governance are required to guide evidence based policy making

the effect of fdi on environmental emissions evidence from a meta analysis one important and frequently raised issue about foreign direct investment fdi is the potentially negative consequences for the environment the potential environmental cost due to increased emissions may undermine the economic gains associated with increases in fdi inflow although the literature is dominated with this adverse view of fdi on the environment there is also a possibility that fdi can contribute to a cleaner environment especially if fdi comes with green technologies and this creates spillovers for domestic industries theoretically the effect of fdi on the environment can be negative or positive to deal with the theoretical ambiguity about the fdi environment nexus many empirical studies have been conducted but their results only reinforce the controversy as they produce contrasting results we conduct a meta analysis of the effect of fdi on environmental emissions using 65 primary studies that produce 1006 elasticities our results show that the underlying effect of fdi on environmental emissions is close to zero however after accounting for heterogeneity in the studies we find that fdi significantly reduces environmental emissions results remain robust after disaggregating the effect for countries at different levels of development as well as for different pollutants

international corporate tax avoidance a review of the channels magnitudes and blind spots this paper reviews the rapidly growing empirical literature on international tax avoidance by multinational corporations it surveys evidence on main channels of corporate tax avoidance including transfer mispricing international debt shifting treaty shopping tax deferral and corporate inversions moreover it performs a meta analysis of the extensive literature that estimates the overall size of profit shifting we find that the literature suggests that for the most recent year a 1 percentage point lower corporate tax rate compared to other countries will expand before tax income by 1 5 percent an effect that is larger than reported as the consensus estimate in previous surveys and tends to be increasing over time the literature on tax avoidance still has several unresolved puzzles and blind spots that require further research

toward a positive economic theory of hedging the hedging models developed over the last half century are evaluated for their ability to explain the actual hedging behavior of the various economic agents this evaluation shows a total lack of a reasonable positive model of hedging behavior while each class of existing models predicts some observed behavior none is able to predict the broad range of actions that is easily observed in the real world in this paper i develop such a model and include a plausible and coldly rational economic explanation for why farmers don t hedge at all while merchandisers with identical risk attitudes will fully hedge

the effectiveness of active labour market policies a meta analysis this paper provides a meta analysis of microeconometric evaluation studies on the effectiveness of active labor market policies the analysis is built upon a systematically assembled data set of causal impact estimates from 57 experimental and quasi experimental studies providing 654 estimates published between january 1990 and december 2017 we distinguish between the short and longer term impacts in our analysis at 6 12 24 and 36 months after program start after correcting for publication bias and country specific macroeconomic characteristics subsidized labor and public employment programs have negative short term impacts which gradually turn positive in the longer run schemes with enhanced services including job search assistance and training programs do not have these negative short term effects and stay positive from 6 until 36 months after program start

estimating dynamic localization economies the inadvertent success of the specialization index and the location quotient estimating dynamic localization economies the inadvertent success of the specialization index and the location quotient regional studies after addressing definitional issues on the concepts of c

a meta analysis of fdi and productivity spillovers in developing countries markdownabstractthis meta analysis reviews the intrasector heterogeneity of productivity spillovers from foreign direct investment fdi in 31 developing countries through a larger more comprehensive data set we investigate how the inconsistencies in the reported spillover findings are affected by publication bias characteristics of the data estimation techniques and empirical specification analyzing 1450 spillover estimates from 69 empirical studies published in 1986 2013 our findings suggest that reported fdi spillover estimates are affected by publication bias in combination with model misspecification of the primary studies the bias overstates the genuine underlying meta effect but the meta effect remains economically and statistically significant our results emphasize that spillovers and their sign largely depend systematically on specification characteristics of the primary studies and publication bias publication bias is not caused by best practice choices future research needs to cover more developing countries and to investigate not only whether spillovers occur but also to explore inside the black box of how spillovers actually emerge

the effects of supply and interest rate shocks in commodity futures markets this paper extends previous studies of futures markets to highlight the role of expectations in the analysis of supply and interest rate shocks shocks which are expected to be permanent generally will create larger movements in spot and futures prices than shocks which are regarded as transitory further the reactions of spot and futures prices may differ both qualitatively and quantitatively depending on whether new information refers to events in the current period or to likely developments in some future period the results demonstrate the potential importance of capturing expectations effects in empirical studies of futures market behavior

beyond publication bias abstract this review considers several meta regression and graphical methods that can differentiate genuine empirical effect from publication bias publication selection exists when editors reviewers or researchers have a preference for statistically significant results because all areas of empirical research are susceptible to publication selection any average or tally of significant insignificant studies is likely to be biased and potentially misleading meta regression analysis can see through the murk of random sampling error and selected misspecification bias to identify the underlying statistical structures that characterize genuine empirical effect meta significance testing and precision effect testing pet are offered as a means to identify empirical effect beyond publication bias and are applied to four areas of empirical economics research minimum wage effects union productivity effects price elasticities and tests of the natural rate hypothesis

meta analysis of economics research reporting guidelines meta regression analysis mra can provide objective and comprehensive summaries of economics research their use has grown rapidly over the last few decades to improve transparency and to raise the quality of mra the meta analysis of economics research network maer net has created the below reporting guidelines future meta analyses in economics will be expected to follow these guidelines or give valid reasons why a meta analysis must deviate from them

macroeconomic implications of agglomeration cities exist because of the productivity gains that arise from clustering production and workers a process called agglomeration how important is agglomeration for aggregate growth this paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of cities and uses it to estimate the effect of local agglomeration on aggregate growth we combine aggregate time series and city level panel data to estimate the model s parameters via generalized method of moments the estimates imply a statistically and economically significant impact of local agglomeration on the growth rate of per capita consumption raising it by about 10

returns to education in china a meta analysis within labour economics returns to education is an area of focused research moreover amongst studies looking at emerging economies china is the most widely studied economy while there is a gen

successful in the long run a meta regression analysis of persistent firm profits we study the profit persistence literature by applying meta regression analysis mra to a set of 36 empirical papers which analyze the persistence of abnormal firm profits over time the analyzed literature provides evidence for a mediocre degree of persistence in abnormal profits an initial analysis of the distribution of reported profit persistence estimates reveals some degree of excess variation this points toward publication bias that favors significant results independent of their algebraic sign the mra however reveals that publication bias is particularly favoring results that indicate profit persistence and thus contradict the neoclassical model of perfect competition moreover the mra enables to control for heterogeneity driven by the study design we find that the analyzed country developing vs developed the applied econometric approach as well as the analyzed period of time are significant drivers of heterogeneity in reported persistence estimates

does fdi actually affect income inequality insights from 25 years of research while there are 25 years of empirical research on how fdi may affect income inequality there is surprisingly no consensus on this issue in this paper we conduct a meta analysis on the effect of fdi on inequality using 543 empirical studies from 1995 to 2019 among various factors we find that the development level of the study country has the strongest influence on the direction in which fdi affects income inequality when the primary studies are sorted into three groups based on the gdp per capita of their sample areas the within group estimates on the effect of fdi on income inequality become strongly consistent with each other particularly we find that fdi is associated with higher inequality for the low income group has no statistically significant effect for the middle income group and is associated with lower inequality for the high income group this observation suggests that fdi may increase income inequality as a country initially develops but reduce inequality as development deepens

scale externalities in korea this paper estimates the nature and magnitude of scale externalities in a developing country korea in the period 1983 1993 this is a period of rapid industry deconcentration from seoul to other metro areas providing a context where externalities are measured when local scale magnitudes are changing dramatically the data allow us to examine the emerging degree of national industrial concentration in different industries as related to their scale externality magnitudes we also examine whether individual industries agglomerate in cities which have a comparative advantage for that industry

meta regression analysis a quantitative method of literature surveys abstract pedagogically literature reviews are instrumental they summarize the large literature written on a particular topic give coherence to the complex often disparate views expressed about an issue and serve as a springboard for new ideas however literature surveys rarely establish anything approximating unanimous consensus ironically this is just as true for the empirical economic literature to harmonize this dissonance we offer a quantitative methodology for reviewing the empirical economic literature meta regression analysis mra is the regression analysis of regression analyses mra tends to objectify the review process it studies the processes that produce empirical economic results as though they were any other social scientific phenomenon mra provides a framework for replication and offers a sensitivity analysis for model specification in this brief essay we propose a new method of reviewing economic literature mra and discuss its potential

the threat effect of active labor market programs a systematic review this paper is a systematic review of the threat effect of active labor market programs for unemployed individuals the threat effect is the induced change in the hazard rate of leaving unemployment prior to program participation studies included in the review all estimated a threat effect with the participants in all cases being unemployed individuals in receipt of benefit of some kind during their tenure of unemployment eight of these studies have been included in a meta analysis the meta analysis which has been carried out using a random effects model to account for heterogeneity indicated a hazard ratio of 1 25 for the pooled estimate we conclude that active labor market programs constitute a statistically significant threat effect although it is modest

on the marshall jacobs controversy it takes two to tango the literature is inconclusive as to whether marshallian specialization or jacobian diversification externalities favour regional innovativeness the specialization argument poses that regional specialization towards a particular industry improves innovativeness in that industry regional specialization allows for knowledge to spill over among similar firms by contrast the diversification thesis asserts that knowledge spills over between firms in different industries causing diversified production structures to be more innovative building on an original database we address this controversy for the netherlands we thereby advance on the literature by providing a two level approach at the region s and the firm s level at the regional level we compare specialized with diversified regions on numbers of accommodated innovators at the firm level we establish causalities between externalities and degree of innovativeness the results unambiguously suggest marshallian externalities specialized regions accommodate increased numbers of innovating firms and consistently incumbent firms innovativeness increase with regional specialization once the product has been launched innovators in diversified jacobian regions appear to be more successful in commercial terms than innovators in specialized marshallian regions

enhanced geospatial validity for meta analysis and environmental benefit transfer an application to water quality improvements meta regression models are commonly used within benefit transfer to estimate willingness to pay wtp for environmental quality improvements theory suggests that these estimates should be sensitive to geospatial factors including resource scale market extent and the availability of substitutes and complements valuation meta regression models addressing the quantity of non market commodities sometimes incorporate spatial variables that proxy for a subset of these effects however meta analyses of wtp for environmental quality generally omit geospatial factors such as these leading to benefit transfers that are invariant to these factors this paper reports on a meta regression model for water quality benefit transfer that incorporates spatially explicit factors predicted by theory to influence wtp the metadata are drawn from stated preference studies that estimate per household wtp for water quality changes in united states water bodies and combine primary study information with extensive geospatial data from external sources results find that geospatial variables are associated with significant wtp variations as predicted by theory and that inclusion of these variables reduces transfer errors

natural resources and economic growth a meta analysis summary an important question in development studies is how natural resources richness affects long term economic growth no consensus answer however has yet emerged with approximately 40 of empirical papers finding a negative effect 40 finding no effect and 20 finding a positive effect does the literature taken together imply the existence of the so called natural resource curse in a quantitative survey of 605 estimates reported in 43 studies we find that overall support for the resource curse hypothesis is weak when potential publication bias and method heterogeneity are taken into account our results also suggest that four aspects of study design are especially effective in explaining the differences in results across studies 1 controlling for institutional quality 2 controlling for the level of investment activity 3 distinguishing between different types of natural resources and 4 differentiating between resource dependence and abundance

spatial wage disparities sorting matters spatial wage disparities can result from spatial differences in the skill composition of the workforce in non human endowments and in local interactions to distinguish between these explanations we estimate a model of wage determination across local labour markets using a very large panel of french workers we control for worker characteristics worker fixed effects industry fixed effects and the characteristics of the local labour market our findings suggest that individual skills account for a large fraction of existing spatial wage disparities with strong evidence of spatial sorting by skills interaction effects are mostly driven by the local density of employment not controlling for worker heterogeneity leads to very biased estimates of interaction effects endowments only appear to play a small role

a reformulation of the portfolio model of hedging the portfolio approach to hedging assumes that the primary motivation for hedging is risk reduction the paper reexamines the portfolio approach to hedging and respecifies the model in such a way that hedge ratios are estimated using returns rather than price levels using the same data set hedge ratios estimated using price levels differ from one while hedge ratios using returns are found to be insignificantly different from one the results do not support the portfolio approach to hedging therefore one must look elsewhere for empirical support for the risk reduction theory of hedging

more reasons why farmers have so little interest in futures markets the use by farmers of futures contracts and other hedging instruments has been observed to be low in many situations and this has sometimes seemed to be considered surprising or even mysterious we propose that it is in fact readily understandable and consistent with rational decision making standard models of the decision about optimal hedging show that it is negatively related to basis risk to quantity risk and to transaction costs farmers who have less uncertainty about prices and those with a diversified portfolio of investments have lower optimal levels of hedging if a farmer has optimistic price expectations relative to the futures market the incentive to hedge can be greatly reduced and finally farmers who have low levels of risk aversion have little to gain from hedging in terms of risk reduction in that the certainty equivalent payoff at their optimal hedge may be little different than the certainty equivalent under zero hedging these reasons are additional to the argument of simmons 2002 who showed that if capital markets are efficient farmers can manage their risk exposure through adjusting their leverage obviating the need for hedging instruments

why do industries coagglomerate how marshallian externalities differ by industry and have evolved over time abstract the fact that firms benefit from close proximity to other firms with which they can exchange inputs skilled labor or know how helps explain why many industrial clusters are so successful studying the evolution of coagglomeration patterns we show that the type of agglomeration that benefits firms has drastically changed over the course of a century and differs markedly across industries whereas at the beginning of the twentieth century industries tended to colocate with their value chain partners in more recent decades the importance of this channel has declined and colocation seems to be driven more by similarities in industries skill requirements by calculating industry specific marshallian agglomeration forces we are able to show that today skill sharing is the most salient motive behind the location choices of services whereas value chain linkages still explain much of the colocation patterns in manufacturing moreover the estimated degrees to which labor and input output linkages are reflected in an industry s coagglomeration patterns help improve predictions of city industry employment growth

inflation targeting genuine effects or publication selection bias abstract this paper uses a meta regression analysis mra to evaluate the impact of publication selection bias as for the macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting it a popular approach to implementing monetary policy documented in the existing literature using 8 059 point estimates from 113 studies we show that a significant part of the documented positive effects of it on inflation and to some extent output growth volatility is in fact due to publication selection bias in particular results pointing to lower inflation volatility and higher real gdp growth tend to be favored by researchers as well as those pointing to statistically significant macroeconomic effects however even after controlling for these two types of biases we find it to be correlated with lower inflation and higher real gdp growth differently the evidence on the it inflation volatility relationship is found to be less clear

currency of denomination and the measurement of export instability the widespread and unexpected absence of statistically significant relationships in analyses of the causes and consequences of export instability has generated attempts to refine measurement of variable sets recently it has been suggested that country rankings are sensitive to the choice of currency numeraire this article investigates the significance of the choice of numeraire for a sample of 66 developing countries the results suggest that the conventional approach of denominating export earnings in terms of us dollars is not seriously deficient and that the selection of an appropriate form of trend correction remains an important consideration

which agglomeration externalities matter most and why this paper revisits the ongoing discussion on the importance of agglomeration externalities specifically specialization diversity and competition effects that may contribute to innovation productivity and urban employment growth previous meta analyses suggested that the evidence on agglomeration externalities is strongly context specific expanding an earlier analysis of 31 articles we seek to draw in this paper more robust conclusions by means of the statistical evidence for agglomeration externalities presented in 73 scientific articles all building on the seminal work of glaeser et al 1992 our results confirm that the heterogeneity among studies is huge and can only be partially accounted for by means of an ordered probit analysis additionally some evidence of publication bias is found we conclude that the conventional lines of inquiry in this literature may now have reached strongly diminishing returns new lines of inquiry using rich micro level data on firms and workers dynamic general equilibrium models at the macro level more attention for spatial and temporal variation in the impacts of agglomeration and further investigations into the spatial scope of externalities are promising avenues for further research that can enhance our understanding of how agglomeration externalities continue to fuel our increasingly urbanized world

debt deficits and dollars the world economy in 3 d abstract the world economy in the 1980s was dominated by problems of international debt balance of payments and fiscal deficits and exchange rate instability analyzing these three problems this paper attempts to demonstrate how changes in both the international financial regime and the conduct of macroeconomic policy at the global level are required if they are to be avoided in the 1990s recognizing the bureaucratic and political constraints on far reaching reform the paper spells out a number of less ambitious options which could nonetheless have a beneficial effect on the world economy an implication of all the reforms discussed touching on both financing and adjustment is an increase in the relative importance of the official sector in the form of the international monetary fund imf and the world bank as compared with the private sector in the form of the international commercial banks in this regard as well as in terms of some of their specifics the proposals find a strong antecedent in the keynes plan that was presented to the bretton woods conference in 1944 as then the argument here is that international financial reform based on a coherent perspective of the world economy can make an important contribution toward bringing about balanced and sustainable world economic expansion

agglomeration economies in the finnish manufacturing sector regional concentration of population and economic activity is a common phenomenon both in finland and the other most developed countries which refers to the existence of agglomeration economies two types of economies are usually recognized to be important specialization marshall externalities and diversity jacobs externalities economies the former refer to the geographical concentration of a specific industry and the latter to the industrial diversity of the local system this study examines the relationship between agglomeration economies and regional productivity in the manufacturing sector in finland a distinction is made between the effects of urbanization and localization economies the production function method is applied to the manufacturing sub sectors in the 83 nuts 4 level regions in 1995 and 1999 the results support the regional specialization more than diversification even if some differences can be seen between the manufacturing sub sectors

the demand for hedging and the value of hedging opportunities hedging strategies typically assume that hedging is costless and that only one futures market exists when these assumptions are dropped the demand for hedging is shown to depend on basis risk price risk and the hedger s risk preference the marginal and incremental value of hedging opportunities are computed for the general cases of one and two markets and applied to the specific case of pennsylvania dairy input hedging copyright 2000 oxford university press

dynamically optimal after tax grain storage cash grain sale and hedging strategies this article utilizes a stochastic dynamic programming sdp model that considers the state variables of a before tax income b grain storage c quantity of futures position d value of futures position e wheat price and f basis level decision variables are monthly cash grain sales and futures market transactions in comparing the post sample performance of sdp to other marketing strategies over a four year period sdp resulted in 5 961 to 25 021 more wealth than the other strategies considered also these other strategies yielded a standard deviation of after tax income that was 30 to 621 greater than that from the sdp framework

the power of bias in economics research we investigate two critical dimensions of the credibility of empirical economics research statistical power and bias we survey 159 empirical economics literatures that draw upon 64 076 estimates of economic parameters reported in more than 6 700 empirical studies half of the research areas have nearly 90 of their results under powered the median statistical power is 18 or less a simple weighted average of those reported results that are adequately powered power 80 reveals that nearly 80 of the reported effects in these empirical economics literatures are exaggerated typically by a factor of two and with one third inflated by a factor of four or more

managing multiple international risks simultaneously with an optimal hedging model abstract a risk management model based on portfolio theory which accounts jointly for price quantity interest rate and exchange rate risks is developed and applied to cocoa and coffee production and exports in the ivory coast utilizing commodity and financial futures markets jointly the results show that a government export agency can reduce risks from 27 to 89 by following a multicommodity hedging program which manages several risks simultaneously the model and technique developed are applicable to many multiproduct firm and international risk management situations

reporting guidelines for meta analysis in economics meta analysis has become the conventional approach to synthesizing the results of empirical economics research to further improve the transparency and replicability of the reported results and to raise the quality of meta analyses the meta analysis of economics research network has updated the reporting guidelines that were published by this journal in 2013 future meta analyses in economics will be expected to follow these updated guidelines or give valid reasons why a meta analysis should deviate from them

does government spending affect income inequality a meta regression analysis in this paper findings of a meta regression analysis are presented exploring the effects of government spending on income inequality with a particular focus on low and middle income countries we identify a total of 84 separate studies containing over 900 estimates of the effect of one or more measures of spending on one or more measures of income inequality the results show some evidence of a moderate negative relationship between government spending and income inequality which is strongest for social welfare and other social spending and when using the gini coefficient or the top income share as the measure of inequality however both the size and direction of the estimated relationship between government spending and income inequality is affected by a range of other factors including the control variables and estimation method used we also find evidence of publication bias in that negative estimates of the relationship appear to be under reported in the literature

active labor market policy evaluations a meta analysis this article presents a meta analysis of recent microeconometric evaluations of active labour market policies we categorise 199 programme impacts from 97 studies conducted between 1995 and 2007 job search assistance programmes yield relatively favourable programme impacts whereas public sector employment programmes are less effective training programmes are associated with positive medium term impacts although in the short term they often appear ineffective we also find that the outcome variable used to measure programme impact matters but neither the publication status of a study nor the use of a randomised design is related to the sign or significance of the programme estimate

does education reduce income inequality a meta regression analysis this paper reexamines the effects of education on inequality through a comprehensive meta regression analysis of the extant empirical literature we find that education affects the two tails of the distribution of income education reduces the income share of top earners and increases the share of the bottom earners education has been particularly effective in reducing inequality in africa some of the results suggest that secondary schooling appears to have a stronger effect than primary schooling though this finding is not always robust the heterogeneity in reported estimates can be largely explained by differences in the specification of the econometric model and measure of inequality and education

does government spending affect income poverty a meta regression analysis summary this paper presents the results of a meta regression analysis of the relationship between government spending and income poverty with a focus on low and middle income countries through a comprehensive search and screening process we identify a total of 19 cross country econometric studies containing 169 estimates of this relationship we find that the size and direction of the estimated relationship are affected by a range of factors most notably the composition of the sample used for estimation the control variables included in the regression model and the type of government spending overall we find no clear evidence that higher government spending has played a significant role in reducing income poverty in low and middle income countries this is consistent with the view that fiscal policy plays a much more limited redistributive role in developing countries in comparison with oecd countries in addition we find that the relationship between government spending and poverty is on average less negative for countries in sub saharan africa and more negative for countries in eastern europe and central asia compared to other regions we also find that the relationship is less negative for government consumption spending in comparison with other sectors finally we find some evidence indicating the possibility of publication bias

portfolio theory and the demand for futures the case of california cotton this paper examines the simultaneous choice of cropping patterns and futures positions it derives the demand for hedging as a function of the price of a hedge and the crop choice set it estimates these functions for california cotton farmers it finds that both the costs of hedging and the opportunity to diversify risk by growing other crops substantially change the optimal hedge for california cotton farmers

the approach of institutional economics this paper assesses the old institutional economics it emphasizes the importance of key old institutionalist themes concerning the necessity of habits and rules and the role of institutions a problem in the alternative theoretical program of the new institutionalism is the untenability of its assumption of an original institution free market or state of nature even optimizing behavior requires the prior existence of habits and rules although it still lacks a complete and systematic theory the evolutionary approach of the old institutionalists tackles the problem of the interactive relationship of actor to structure without analytical reduction to one or the other

a reformulation of the portfolio model of hedging comment in a recent article stewart l brown finds that hedge ratios estimated using percentage price change data are not significantly different from one while hedge ratios estimated using price level data are he argues that a the use of percentage price change data which he calls returns is more appropriate and b his empirical results do not support the portfolio theory of hedging many objective functions do indeed suggest the use of price change data although not necessarily percentage price change data instead of price level data when estimating hedge ratios and brown gives no new reasons for their use however brown s conclusion that hedge ratios significantly less than one support the portfolio theory while ratios not significantly different from one do not is erroneous moreover his paper misrepresents previous research on this topic my comment is intended to clarify these two issues

railroad rate deregulation and uncertainly of farm level prices for corn uncertainty of country elevator prices for corn in terms of error variance and mean squared forecast errors failed to increase in response to the deregulation in 1980 of railroad rates regression analysis was used to separate the uncertainty impacts of deregulation from those of other unanticipated changes in supply and demand factors influencing uncertainty included unexpected changes in storage costs export demand corn futures and rail car utilization some of the factors creating price uncertainty prior to deregulation were replaced by new uncertainty factors occurring as a result of deregulation

publication selection and the income elasticity of the value of a statistical life abstract estimates of the value of a statistical life vsl establish the price government agencies use to value fatality risks transferring these valuations to other populations often utilizes the income elasticity of the vsl which typically draw on estimates from meta analyses using a data set consisting of 101 estimates of the income elasticity of vsl from 14 previously reported meta analyses we find that after accounting for potential publication bias the income elasticity of value of a statistical life is clearly and robustly inelastic with a value of approximately 0 25 0 63 there is also clear evidence of the importance of controlling for levels of risk differential publication selection bias and the greater income sensitivity of vsl from stated preference surveys

spatial proximity and firm survival in a declining industrial district the case of knitwear firms in baden wu rttemberg the literature on small firm networks in industrial districts postulates the importance of territorial proximity for business innovation and regional development but empirical research to test this proposition is sparse while there is some research on the extent of interfirm co operation little is known about the performance outcomes of co operation i develop competing hypotheses from institutional ecological and random action theories concerning the survival chances of firms located in geographic proximity and test them with data on the complete population of knitwear firms in baden wurttemberg germany for the period from 1960 to 1998 proportional hazard estimates show that location in clusters of firms in the same industry increased business failure rates and location in diversified clusters of firms operating in complementary industries reduced failure rates the empirical results are most consistent with the ecological model of localized competition in resource environments la documentation

the dynamics of local employment in france we study the impact of local economic structure on employment dynamics local employment is decomposed into the product of the average plant size and the number of plants in the area and industry we estimate the dynamics of both components simultaneously using french yearly data on 36 industries and 341 areas between 1984 and 1993 the careful specification of short run dynamics and the control for fixed effects and endogeneity are shown to be critical in the empirical model first static externalities are prevalent compared to dynamic ones moreover whereas area and industry effects explain most of the spatial variation of plant size the local number of plants is mainly driven by the current local economic structure policies targeted towards plant creation should thus be more efficient for instance large areas endowed with a small number of even size industries have both more and larger plants a large number of plants heterogeneous in size also increases the average plant size but the number of plants is higher when plants have similar size

income elasticity of gasoline demand a meta analysis abstract in this paper we quantitatively synthesize empirical estimates of the income elasticity of gasoline demand reported in previous studies the studies cover many countries and report a mean elasticity of 0 28 for the short run and 0 66 for the long run we show however that these mean estimates are biased upwards because of publication bias the tendency to suppress negative and insignificant estimates of the elasticity we employ mixed effects multilevel meta regression to filter out publication bias from the literature our results suggest that the income elasticity of gasoline demand is on average much smaller than reported in previous surveys the mean corrected for publication bias is 0 1 for the short run and 0 23 for the long run

basis risk measurement and analysis of basis fluctuations for selected livestock markets unanticipated basis changes can reduce the ability of futures markets to transfer risk and can affect income levels of producers and market participants this study examines short term basis risk defined as the variance of the random component of the basis over time for several midwest livestock markets basis risk is related to several factors influencing the long term pattern in the time series and unexpected changes in price little evidence is found that basis risk changed as maturity approached or that risk varied across markets except for the interior iowa hog market

the effectiveness of r d subsidies a meta regression analysis of the evaluation literature widespread and increasing public subsidy for research and development r d has given rise to a large and growing number of evaluation studies while economic theory identifies market failures that justify public support theory also suggests reasons why returns might be disappointing similarly the empirical literature investigated 52 micro level studies published since 2000 on either input or output r d reports a wide range of findings the lack of conclusiveness both of theory and of the evaluation literature motivate this meta regression analysis mra this study contributes to policy debate by identifying a representative subsidy effect after controlling for publication selection bias and for a wide range of sample and study heterogeneities mra findings reject crowding out of private investment by public subsidy but reveal no evidence of substantial additionality in addition among the research practices explaining the heterogeneous effects reported in this literature those related to the treatment of unobservable firm heterogeneity are particularly important

intertemporal commodity futures hedging and the production decision this paper deals with the producer s optimal use of commodity futures in hedging the framework for analysis is an intertemporal consumption and investment model the producer makes his production decisions at the beginning of the period and realizes his return at the end of the time interval during the period he faces both price and output uncertainties in applying stochastic dynamic programming methods this paper shows the effect of these risks on his consumption behavior further the paper investigates his optimal hedging positions in the futures market over time and his optimal production decisions finally implications of these results on the futures markets are discussed this paper studies a normative model of the farmer s optimal hedging strategy and consumption behavior in a continuous time framework recent papers for example berck 3 rolfo 18 stoll 21 have analyzed the farmer s hedging strategies in a one period context these papers have provided interesting insights into the farmer s production decisions and the optimal design of futures contracts and markets however in a one period model some rather restrictive conditions are imposed on the individual s behavior for example in these models an individual is assumed to ignore any information arrival process as a result the individual is assumed to adjust neither consumption behavior nor hedging positions to the changing state of the world during the production period these conditions can be relaxed in a continuous time framework in an intertemporal context the farmer s hedging problem may be viewed as follows since the farm income at harvest depends on both the spot price and the output in bushels the farmer is subject to both price and output uncertainties during the production period 1 when the farmer can hedge only in the commodity futures market he cannot eliminate both the price and output uncertainties by any hedging strategy 2 as the farm income represents a significant portion of his wealth he must necessarily hold an undiversified portfolio during the production period therefore in essence the farmer must solve for his investment consumption behavior and his hedging strategy facing the nonmarketable asset problem mayers 14 in a multiperiod framework in this context one can see intuitively the major difference between a one

the impacts of energy efficiency policies meta analysis abstract this paper attempts to quantitatively summarize the existing empirical evidence on the effects of energy efficiency policies on energy demand and on the price of associated durable goods as well as to identify the main factors that systematically affect the estimated impacts to this end a meta regression analysis of the effects of energy efficiency policies is carried out on the basis of an extensive review of the existing literature selecting those studies that analyze the impact of energy efficiency policies with respect to a business as usual setting taking into account the econometric problems associated with this type of analysis intra class correlation cross sectional dependence publication bias in pursuit of robust outcomes the results show that the studies analyzing the effects of energy efficiency policies estimate a significant impact of these policies on energy demand 10 5 8 8 and the price of related durable goods 7 9 6 the main factors that influence results are the policy instrument the targeted sector the type of country the analyzed period the consideration of free riders and the type of analysis data and publication energy demand and the sector and analyzed period price of durables

impact of informal institutions on the prevalence strategy and performance of family firms a meta analysis family controlled firms fcfs prevalence strategies and performance differ across countries we explain these differences through the lens of informal institutions suggesting that different countries have different levels of appreciation for family business to capture this effect we introduce the construct of family business legitimacy fbl and an associated index fbli we empirically measure fbli scores for 83 countries spanning both developed and emerging economies by combining meta analytic and archival data we show that fcfs prevail follow unique strategies and outperform non fcfs in countries with high fbli scores as a new contingency variable fbl advances the literature on the informal institutional embeddedness of organizations and family business

multilevel approaches and the firm agglomeration ambiguity in economic growth studies empirical studies in spatial economics have shown that agglomeration economies may be a source of the uneven distribution of economic activities and economic growth across cities and regions both localization and urbanization economies are hypothesized to foster agglomeration and growth but recent meta analyses of this burgeoning body of empirical research show that the results are ambiguous recent overviews show that this ambiguity is fuelled by measurement issues and heterogeneity in terms of scale of time and space aggregation growth definitions and the functional form of the models applied alternatively in this paper we argue that ambiguity may be due to a lack of research on firm level performance in agglomerations this research is necessary because the theories that underlie agglomeration economies are microeconomic in nature hierarchical or multilevel modeling which allows micro levels and macro levels to be modeled simultaneously is becoming an increasingly common practice in the social sciences as illustrated by detailed dutch data on firm level productivity employment growth and firm survival we argue that these approaches are also suitable for reducing the ambiguity surrounding the agglomeration firm performance relationship and for addressing spatial sectoral and cross level heterogeneity