virtual and composite fundamentals in the erm a latent variable approach is applied to identify the appropriate driving process for fundamental exchange rates in the erm from the time series characteristics of so called virtual fundamentals and composite fundamentals a significant degree of mean reversion can be asserted the relative degree of mean reversion across countries closely corresponds to often assumed degrees of economic integration vis a vis germany as well as documented degrees of credibility of the exchange rate policies pursued convergence in fundamentals appears to be larger under the new ems than in the previous years but has again diminished after german unification and the subsequent widening of the erm bands in 1993

occupational choice and the process of development this paper models economic development as a process of institutional transformation by focusing on the interplay between agents occupational decisions and the distribution of wealth because of capital market imperfections poor agents choose working for a wage over self employment and wealthy agents become entrepreneurs who monitor workers only with sufficient inequality however will there be employment contracts otherwise there is either subsistence or self employment thus in static equilibrium the occupational structure depends on distribution since the latter is itself endogenous we demonstrate the robustness of this result by extending the model dynamically and studying examples in which initial wealth distributions have long run effects in one case the economy develops either widespread cottage industry self employment or factory production employment contracts depending on the initial distribution in the other example it develops into prosperity or stagnation

from physical to human capital accumulation inequality and the process of development this paper develops a growth theory that captures the replacement of physical capital accumulation by human capital accumulation as a prime engine of growth along the process of development it argues that the positive impact of inequality on the growth process was reversed in this process in early stages of the industrial revolution when physical capital accumulation was the prime source of growth inequality stimulated development by channelling resources towards individuals with a higher propensity to save as human capital emerged as a growth engine equality alleviated adverse effects of credit constraints on human capital accumulation stimulating the growth process this research develops a growth theory that captures the endogenous replacement of physical capital accumulation by human capital accumulation as a prime engine of economic growth in the transition from the industrial revolution to modern growth the proposed theory offers a unified account for the effect of income inequality on the growth process during this transition it argues that the replacement of physical capital accumulation by human capital accumulation as a prime engine of economic growth changed the qualitative impact of inequality on the process of development in the early stages of the industrial revolution when physical capital accumulation was the prime source of economic growth inequality enhanced the process of development by channelling resources towards individuals whose marginal propensity to save is higher in the later stages of the transition to modern growth as human capital emerged as a prime engine of economic growth equality alleviated the adverse effect of credit constraints on human capital accumulation and stimulated the growth process the proposed theory unifies two fundamental approaches regarding the effect of income distribution on the process of development the classical approach and the credit market imperfection approach 1 the classical approach was originated by smith 1776 and was further interpreted and developed by keynes 1920 lewis 1954 kaldor 1957 and bourguignon 1981 according to this approach saving rates are an increasing function of wealth and inequality therefore channels resources towards individuals whose marginal propensity to save 1 the socio political economy approach provides an alternative mechanism equality diminishes the tendency for socio political instability or distortionary redistribution and hence it stimulates investment and economic growth see the comprehensive survey of benabou 1996b

exchange rate target zones a survey of the literature this work selectively reviews the literature on exchange rate target zones and their theoretical and empirical methodologies and examines whether they can be used to clarify to what extent this type of exchange rate regime could contribute to greater exchange rate stability we discuss the main contributions of the first and second generations of exchange rate target zone models in an attempt to reconcile the poor empirical performance of the krugman model with the reality of exchange rate target zone regimes this line of research integrates target zones with alternative underlying economic models such as imperfect credibility intra marginal interventions and sticky price models it was thus possible to understand the correlations observed between the exchange rate its fundamentals determinants and the interest rate differential and to explain the fact that the statistical distribution of the exchange rate is hump shaped rather than u shaped this implies that the initial emphasis of target zone models on nonlinearities honeymoon effect smooth pasting and marginal interventions has vanished exchange rate target zones are better described as similar to managed floating regimes with intra marginal interventions with some marginal interventions when the exchange rate reaches the edges of the floating band

realignment risk and currency option pricing in target zones abstract this paper extends the krugman target zone model by including a realignment mechanism various properties of that realignment mechanism are discussed the movement of the exchange rate is governed both by a wiener process on fundamental and by a poisson jump process with endogenous realignment size the realignment mechanism is such that except in cases where a speculative attack occurs no jump in fundamental is needed to accompany the jump in the exchange rate a risk neutral valuation of currency options is constructed some properties of option values under realignment risk are illustrated by numerical results

a model of target changes and the term structure of interest rates abstract we investigate the effects of short term rate targeting by the federal reserve on the term structure of interest rates and make contributions at two levels using a new series of interest rate targets made available by the federal reserve bank of new york we develop a family of models that highlight the implications of discrete changes in interest rate targets for the term structure of interest rates we show that spreads between short term rates and the overnight federal reserve funds rate are mainly driven by expectations of changes in the target not by the transitory dynamics of the overnight rate around the target hence the bias in tests of the expectations hypothesis that we document can be mainly attributed to the erroneous anticipation of future changes in monetary policy our modeling assumptions and newly available data make it possible to extract a series of market expectations of the next target change which are compared with a series of realized target changes

target zone models with stochastic realignments an econometric evaluation abstract this paper provides empirical support for the second generation of target zone models with stochastic devaluation risk i propose a simple non linear framework with a time varying probability of exchange rate realignment this model nests alternatives i with no devaluation risk ii with constant devaluation risk and iii the random walk i reject these three in favor of a stochastic realignment model where devaluation risk varies with economic fundamentals the model predicts 13 of 17 realignments for the franc and lira including an out of sample episode in august 1993

intergenerational mobility under private vs public education intergenerational earnings mobility is analyzed in a model where human capital is produced using schooling and parental time in steady states more mobile societies have less inequality but in the short run higher mobility may result from an increase in inequality starting from the same inequality mobility is higher under public than under private education a rise in income shocks for example due to increased returns to ability or a switch from public to private schooling both increase inequality however increased shocks raise mobility in the short run and do not affect it in the long run whereas an increased role for private schooling reduces mobility in both the short and long run that these differences may help to identify the source of changes in inequality and other real world implications are illustrated in a brief discussion of time trends and cross country differences

noisy signals in target zone regimes theory and monte carlo experiments abstract previous empirical evidence indicates that uncovered interest parity uip does not hold for target zone exchange rates like those in the european monetary system and in the nordic countries we explore a target zone model where the market infers the probability of a realignment of the band on the basis of a noisy signal we show theoretically and through monte carlo simulations that if the market overrates the information content in the signal then this may explain the empirical results obtained from testing uip for target zone exchange rates

cheap children and the persistence of poverty this paper develops a theory of fertility that offers an explanation for the persistence of poverty within and across countries if educated individuals have a comparative advantage in raising educated children then parental fertility choice is shown to give rise to a poverty trap in which the poor choose high fertility rates with low investment in child quality moreover the impact of child quality choice on economic performance is amplified by the diluting effect of higher fertility on physical capital accumulation the theory proposes insights regarding the effects of inequality globalisation and life expectancy on economic growth and demographic transitions this paper develops a theory of fertility and child educational choice that offers an explanation for the persistence of poverty within and across countries the joint determination of the quality education and quantity of children in a household is studied under the key assumption that individuals productivity as teachers increases with their own human capital in contrast the minimum time cost associated with raising a child regardless of the child s quality the quantity cost is not affected by parental education as a result the price of child quantity relative to the price of child quality increases with individuals wages in particular for low wage individuals for whom the opportunity cost of time is low children of minimal quality are cheap this assumption therefore generates a comparative advantage for the poor in child quantity whereas high wage educated individuals have a comparative advantage in raising quality children consistent with the well known evidence poor households thus choose relatively high fertility rates with relatively low investment in their offspring s education and therefore their offspring are poor as well in contrast high income families choose low fertility rates with high investment in education and therefore high income persists in the dynasty evidence from the us provided by hanushek 1992 suggests that a trade off between quantity and quality of children does indeed exist hanushek argues that movements in family size could explain over half the variance in some test scores and that the elasticity of achievements with respect to the number of children in the family is 0 03 implying that the annual achievement growth of each child in a family will fall about 2 when a second child is added and about 0 5 when a sixth child is added 1

devaluation expectations the swedish krona 1982 1991 devaluation expectations for the swedish krona are estimated for the period 1982 1991 with several methods first the simplest test is applied under either only the minimal assumption of no positive minimum profit or the additional assumption of uncovered interest parity then a more precise method suggested by bertola and svensson is used in which expected rates of depreciation within the exchange rate band estimated in several ways are subtracted from interest rate differentials finally estimated devaluations expectations are to some extent explained by a few macrovariables and parliament elections

intergenerational mobility and macroeconomic history dependence a large literature on endogenous inequality has argued that persistent differences in macroeconomic performance across countries can be explained by historical inequality owing to indivisibilities in occupational choice and borrowing constraints these models are characterized by homogenous agents a continuum of steady states sss and lack of mobility in every ss we show that introducing even a little heterogeneity in order to generate ss mobility shrinks the ss set dramatically mobile sss are generically locally unique and finite in number sufficient conditions for global uniqueness and convergence of competitive equilibrium dynamics are provided

target zones and exchange rates an empirical investigation this paper develops an empirical model of exchange rates in a target zone the distribution of exchange rate changes is conditioned on a latent jump variable where the probability and size of a jump vary over time as a function of financial and macroeconomic variables when there is no jump the target zone is credible and exchange rate changes are constrained to remain within the target zone band the paper revisits the empirical evidence from the european monetary system regarding the conditional distribution of exchange rate changes the credibility of the system and the size of the foreign exchange risk premia in contrast to some previous findings we conclude that the french franc deutschmark rate exhibits considerable nonlinearities realignments are somewhat predictable and the credibility of the system did not increase substantially after 1987 moreover our model implies that the foreign exchange risk premium becomes large during speculative crises

ability transmission endogenous fertility and educational subsidy in this study we attempt to investigate how educational subsidy childcare allowance and family allowance affect economic growth and income distribution on the basis of simulation models which incorporate intergenerational ability transmission and endogenous fertility the simulation results show that financial support for higher education can both increase economic growth and reduce income inequality especially if the abilities of parent and child are closely correlated in contrast with educational subsidy raising childcare allowance or family allowance has limited impacts on growth and income inequality

mommy tracks and public policy on self fulfilling prophecies and gender gaps in hiring and promotion abstract consider a model with two types of jobs the profitability of hiring a worker to a fast track job depends not only on his or her observable talent but also on incontractible effort we investigate whether self fulfilling expectations may lead to higher hiring or promotion standards for women if employers expect women to do more household work than men thereby exerting less effort in their paid job then women must be more talented to make it profitable to hire them specialization in the family will then result in women doing most of the household work such self fulfilling prophecies can be defeated by affirmative action or family policy however it is unlikely that temporary policy can move the economy to a symmetric equilibrium policy must be made permanent anti discrimination policy need not enhance efficiency and from a distribution viewpoint this is a policy with both winners and losers

educational inequality and intergenerational mobility in latin america a new database abstract the causes and consequences of the intergenerational persistence of inequality are a topic of great interest among various fields in economics however until now issues of data availability have restricted a broader and cross national perspective on the topic based on rich sets of harmonized household survey data we contribute to filling this gap by computing time series for several indexes of relative and absolute intergenerational education mobility for 18 latin american countries over 50 years and making them publicly available we find that intergenerational mobility is on average rising in latin america this pattern seems to be driven by the high upward mobility of children from low educated families at the same time there is substantial immobility at the top of the distribution significant cross country differences are observed and are associated with income inequality poverty economic growth public educational expenditures and assortative mating

dynamics of intra ems interest rate linkages anumber of previous studies have questioned the dominant role of germany within the european monetary system ems these conclusions are often based on empirical findings that the interest rates of ems member countries are not affected by german interest rates even in the long run in this study we demonstrate that intra ems interest rate differentials vis a vis germany exhibit mean reverting behavior characterized by long memory dynamics in a system incorporating six ems countries and one non ems country the u s a estimates from a fractional error correction model suggest the presence of short run intra ems monetary policy interdependencies but validate the german dominance hypothesis in the long run

explaining exchange rate volatility an empirical analysis of the holy trinity of monetary independence fixed exchange rates and capital mobility abstract this paper uses a panel of data from twenty two countries between 1967 and 1992 to explain exchange rate volatility focusing on potential tradeoffs between fixed exchange rates independent monetary policy and capital mobility i use monetary models to parameterize monetary divergence and factor analysis to measure capital mobility exchange rate volatility is loosely linked to both monetary divergence and the degree of capital mobility interestingly exchange rate volatility is significantly correlated with the width of the explicitly declared exchange rate band even after taking monetary divergence and capital mobility into account

determinants of the implied shadow exchange rates from a target zone abstract the paper provides a continuous time model of the dynamic behavior of exchange rates and interest rates when exchange rates are managed within a target zone with the possibility of realignments in the case of a realignment the exchange rate jumps to a shadow exchange rate the timing of realignments is modelled by a cox process with an intensity that depends on the location of the exchange rate in the target zone band as well as the distance to the shadow exchange rate we set up an approximate maximum likelihood estimation approach and provide parameter estimates for six erm target zones moreover in the empirical analysis we filter out the shadow exchange rates and investigate which fundamental macroeconomic factors are able to explain the short run and long run behavior of the filtered shadow exchange rates

persistent inequality an explanation based on limited parental altruism abstract this paper proposes an alternative theory for the observed persistence in income inequality across households a theory based on limited parental altruism we argue that the degree of parental altruism is limited by the economic status of the parent a poor parent not only has less ability but also has less willingness to invest in children s human capital formation this generates a non linearity in such investment expenditures as a result initial income differences may perpetuate over time even with convex technology and convex preferences in this context we also compare the efficacy of the public vis a vis the private education system from the perspective of long run growth

redistribution and non consumption smoothing in an open economy this paper presents a model where income distribution and redistributive fiscal policy interact to affect the budget deficit and the pattern of net borrowing of a country according to the standard representative agent paradigm a small open economy should smooth consumption by borrowing from lending to the rest of the world when its income increases declines over time the simple model of this paper delivers exactly the same predictions in the absence of income dispersion when income distribution is not degenerate however the same model gives rise to a surprising wealth of results in particular poor economies with high inequality may exhibit completely counter intuitive patterns of fiscal policy and external borrowing the country s production path declines over time because the more mobile agents leave the country to escape taxation yet the country might end up having a budget deficit and borrowing from abroad thereby reinforcing rather than smoothing the asymmetry in consumption between the two periods an important feature of this outcome is that it is backed by both the poor and the rich who gain from the fiscal system at the expense of the middle class

soft versus hard targets for exchange rate intervention when targeting money prices or credit monetary authorities typically follow rules that combine flexibility over short horizons with discipline over longer horizons usually by committing to average targets for monetary aggregates or inflation over pre specified periods yet when targeting exchange rates monetary authorities typically follow rules that require strict adherence to announced targets in both the short and the long run in this paper we explore the implications of a policy for exchange rate intervention that combines flexibility over short horizons with discipline over long horizons our version of this soft target zone related to an idea ofjohn williamson 1985 requires a monetary authority to maintain the exchange rate on average rather than at all times as in the erm within a pre announced band we study the implications of this policy for the volatility of exchange rates and for the vulnerability of the exchange rate arrangement to speculative attacks practical reasons including the difficulty of targeting money and inflation on a continuous basis contribute to common use of soft i e average rules when targeting these aggregates more important however average targets allow

intergenerational mobility a comparative study between turkey and the united states abstract i examine the degree of intergenerational mobility in turkey through the effect of parental education on economic welfare parental education is important for the quantity of education received but has no further impact on economic well being turkish intergenerational mobility is less than in the united states particularly for women

expected and predicted realignments the ff dm exchange rate during the ems an empirical model of time varying realignment risk in an exchange rate target zone is developed expected rates of devaluation are estimated as the difference between interest rate differentials and estimated expected rates of depreciation within the exchange rate band using french franc deutsche mark data during the european monetary system the behavior of estimated expected rates of depreciation accord well with the theoretical model of bertola svensson 1990 we are also able to predict actial realignments with some success

income distribution and macroeconomics this paper analyzes the role of wealth distribution in macroeconomics through investment in human capital it is shown that in the presence of credit markets imperfections and indivisibilities in investment in human capital the initial distribution of wealth affects aggregate output and investment both in the short and in the long run as there are multiple steady states this paper therefore provides an additional explanation for the persistent differences in per capita output across countries furthermore the paper shows that cross country differences in macroeconomic adjustment to aggregate shocks can be attributed among other factors to differences in wealth and income distribution across countries

modelling the ff mm rate by threshold cointegration analysis this paper investigates a sticky price model of exchange rate determination extension of krugman s target zone model with price inertia applied to the french franc a novel theoretical argument is considered threshold cointegration such that the long run relationship between the parity and its fundamentals is dormant within a certain range of disequilibria but is restored when the system crosses the boundaries over the period 1987 1993 nonlinearities in the ff dm rate consistent with the credibility of this target zone were detected by pointing out a band reversion mechanism a shock persistence analysis which highlights a nonlinear reversion of the exchange rate deviation is also implemented

devaluations and depreciation expectations in the ems this paper proposes a method to estimate separately the size of the expected depreciation in an eventual devaluation of the central parity in the erm and the probability assigned by agents to this devaluation occurring in the short run the proposed method complements the information provided by the jumps observed in market exchange rates around realignments with the information contained in interest rate differentials on the future behaviour of exchange rates the separation of probability and size allows a richer analysis of the effects of devaluations on exchange rate credibility in the erm

an interpretation of recent research on exchange rate target zones how do exchange rate bands work compared to completely fixed rates between realignments or more precisely what are the dynamics of exchange rates interest rates and central bank interventions within exchange rate bands does the difference between bands and completely fixed exchange rates matter and if so which of the two arrangements is best or more precisely what are the tradeoffs that determine the optimal bandwidth this article will present an interpretation of some selected recent theoretical and empirical research on exchange rate target zones with emphasis on main ideas and results and without technical detail

soft exchange rate bands and speculative attacks theory and evidence from the erm since august 1993 we present a model of a soft exchange rate target zone and interpret it as a stylized description of the post august 1993 erm our central bank targets a moving average of the current and past exchange rates rather than the exchange rate s current level thus allowing the rate to move within wide margins in the short run but within narrow margins in the long run for realistic parameters soft target zones are significantly less vulnerable to speculative attacks than hard target zones these predictions are consistent with the erm s experience and the abatement of speculative pressure in european markets since the bands widening in 1993

das human kapital a theory of the demise of the class structure this paper suggests that the demise of the capitalists workers class structure was a socio economic transformation orchestrated by the capitalists in reaction to the increasing importance of human capital in sustaining their profit rates physical capital accumulation in the process of industrialization enhanced the importance of human capital in production and generated incentives for capitalists to support the provision of public education for the masses triggering the demise of the existing class structure the implications of the theory are consistent with the voting patterns on england s education reform of 1902

a new indicator to assess the credibility of the ems abstract this paper proposes a new credibility indicator for the ems based on the realignment expectations calculated using the inferred probabilities derived from the estimation of a markov switching regimes model this indicator avoids most of the problems presented by the so called drift adjusted method and in particular it accounts in a natural manner for ex ante expectations instead of using ex post realignment times in order to deal with the jumps in the exchange rates the periods of high probability of realignment match very closely the crisis of the ems

political equilibrium income distribution and growth this paper analyzes the impact of income distribution on growth when investment in human capital is the source of growth and individuals vote over the degree of redistribution in the economy the model has three main features first very different patterns of income distribution are conducive to high growth at different levels of per capita income second growth is associated with an externality whereby investment in human capital by one group increases the productivity of other groups thus potentially enabling them to invest in human capital third the initial pattern of income distribution and the resulting political equilibrium are crucial in determining whether the transmission of this externality is promoted in which case growth is enhanced or prevented in which case growth is stopped using a non overlapping generations model with voting i derive several empirical implications in particular the model implies an inverted u relation between levels of inequality and levels of income in cross sections but not necessarily in time series a result that seems consistent with a number of empirical studies

regression toward mediocrity in economic stature this paper provides estimates of the correlation in lifetime earnings between fathers and sons intergenerational data from the national longitudinal survey are used earlier studies conducted for the united states report elasticities of children s earnings with respect to parent s earnings of 0 2 or less suggesting extensive integenerational mobility these estimates however are biased downward by error contaminated measures of lifetime economic status estimates presented in this paper correct for the problem of measurement error and find the intergenerational correlation in income to be on the order of 0 4 this suggests considerably less intergenerational mobility than previously believed jel j62

intergenerational income mobility in the united states social scientists and policy analysts have long expressed concern about the extent of intergenerational income mobility in the united states but remarkably little empirical evidence is available the few existing estimates of the intergenerational correlation in income have been biased downward by measurement error unrepresentative samples or both new estimates based on intergenerational data from the panel study of income dynamics imply that the intergenerational correlation in long run income is at least 0 4 indicating dramatically less mobility than suggested by earlier research copyright 1992 by american economic association

bequest behavior and the effect of heirs earnings testing the altruistic model of bequests that parents transfer resources to children because of altruistic concern is a reasonable a priori assumption however economic theories of altruistic transfers have produced many counterintuitive conclusions and consequently much debate when applied to bequests these theories predict that inheritances will compensate for earnings differences between siblings as well as between parents and children this paper tests these implications using a new data set centered on federal estate tax returns little support can be found for an altruistic theory of bequests this finding has implications for macroeconomic policy government transfer programs and inequality copyright 1996 by american economic association

intergenerational earnings mobility inequality and growth abstract we examine a model in which per capita income inequality intergenerational mobility and returns to education are all determined endogenously individuals earn wages depending on their ability which is a random variable they purchase an education with transfers received from their parents and are subject to liquidity constraints in the model multiple steady state equilibria are possible countries with identical tastes and technologies can reach differing rates of mobility inequality and per capita income equilibria with higher levels of output also have lower inequality higher mobility and more efficient distribution of education

an empirical reassessment of target zone nonlinearities abstract in this paper we investigate the presence of target zone nonlinearities in the pound sterling german mark exchange rate for the period of the uk european exchange rate mechanism erm membership using data with frequency of every 2 days tests against general nonlinear specifications as well as specifications consistent with a stochastic devaluation risk model of exchange rate target zones are carried out using recursive techniques in addition the significance of nonlinear effects is analysed within a recursive bayesian framework we find evidence of target zone nonlinearities in the whole sample but the recursive analysis yields support for the presence of such nonlinearities only in specific subsamples our results imply that the reduction in the uk inflation rate was most likely a consequence of contractionary policies rather than of the expectational effects associated with the target zone

education democracy and growth abstract this note presents a model of endogenous growth where redistribution determined by a political equilibrium is in the form of public education it is shown that there need not be a negative relationship between growth and redistribution as public education increases the level of human capital in the conomy and at the same time tends to produce a more even income distribution

endogenous capital market imperfections human capital and intergenerational mobility in this paper capital market imperfections are endogenized considering an adverse selection problem between banks and borrowers we develop a growth model with linear olg wealth dynamics where agents are heterogeneous in terms of observable wealth and ability which is private information we show that banks react to this informational asymmetry by granting higher loans to talented borrowers this in turn helps poor and talented agents to become educated and catch up with the rich agents furthermore the credit market friction leads to greater human capital accumulation

regime switching and interest rates in the european monetary system this paper examines the impact that a currency target zone has on short term interest rates for a number of countries in the european monetary system we characterize the short rate using a regime switching model that allows fbr a differently parameterized mean reverting square root process in each regime we find that the volatility the level and the speed of adjustment are all higher in the regime that is operative during speculative attacks and currency crises moreover we allow the conditional probability of being in each regime to be state dependent so the model can be used to examine questions relating to the likelihood of realignments and the stability of the target zone system c 1999 elsevier science bn all rights reserved jel classification e43 g12

imperfect credibility and risk premia in the european monetary system the paper deals with the estiamation of models for the expected rate of depreciation within the currency bands of the french franc and the italian lira against the deutshmark both unconditional and conditional upon no realignment as well as the estimastion of models for risk premia using these estimates estimates are constructed for the expected rate of depreciation the expected rate of realignment and the expected rate of devaluation of these exchange rates during their ems period by appropriate adjustment of interest rate differentials it is found that these adjustments are of non trivial magnitude

a univariate analysis of ems exchange rates using a target zone model summary the models in the literature on exchange rate target zones imply a non linear time series model for the exchange rate we show how the parameters of such models can be estimated and develop maximum likelihood and method of simulated moments estimators for the target zone model of krugman 1991 the maximum likelihood estimator is based on a computationally attractive approximation to the exact predictive density of the continuous time model monte carlo experiments are used to assess the properties of this estimator in the empirical part we estimate the model with data on recent ems exchange rates we find that the krugman 1991 target zone model is not able to explain the full observed kurtosis and conditional heteroscedasticity of the exchange rate returns

intergenerational talent transmission inequality and social mobility abstract the paper investigates the effects of intra family talent transmission when human capital exhibits indivisibilities and parental financing of education involves borrowing constraints positive talent correlation reduces social mobility but steady state inequality and macroeconomic history dependence are not affected

inequality and growth uncovering the main conclusions from the empirics abstractthis paper is a critical survey of the empirical literature on the effects of inequality on economic growth we conclude that it is most likely that the disparities found in the results are due to differences in the type of countries and time periods included in the samples the variable used to measure inequality the structure of the data and the estimation techniques these findings suggest that the mechanisms that link inequality to growth are likely to operate differently in different circumstances an element that may offer important guidelines for both policy makers and researchers

more equal but less mobile education financing and intergenerational mobility in italy and in the us a centralised and egalitarian school system reduces the cost of education for poor families and so it should reduce income inequality and make intergenerational mobility easier in this paper we provide evidence that italy compared to the usa displays less income inequality as expected given the type of school system but also less intergenera tional upward mobility between occupations and between education levels we explore some of the reasons which can explain this puzzling result and conclude that in a world in which family background is important for labor market success a centralised and egalitarian tertiary education does not necessarily help poor children and may take away from them a fundamental tool to prove their talent and to compete with rich children 1999 elsevier science s a all rights reserved

public education and redistribution when talents are mismatched in democratic countries elected policymakers determine public spending the level of public spending depends on taxes that are decided by a voting mechanism policymakers also decide how to allocate funds among different policies such as public education and pure redistributive transfers how are the levels of funding for public education and redistribution determined in the political process what impacts do votes on these two policies have on inequality growth and social mobility we develop a politico economic model that highlights a novel mechanism public education provides opportunities for the children of the poor to be recognized for their talent this reduces the probability of a mismatch which takes place when individuals with low talent who come from rich families find jobs that should go to people with high talent and vice versa hence the poor may prefer public spending on education to direct redistribution while the rich prefer redistribution as education implies more competition for good jobs from the poor

strength in numbers networks as a solution to occupational traps the new classical theory states that families in low skill occupations with low levels of human capital can stay poor from one generation to the next while families in high skill occupations with correspondingly high levels of human capital stay wealthy despite being endowed with the same level of ability on average this paper proposes an informal institutional mechanism the community based network through which families belonging to the same neighbourhood or kinship group can bootstrap their way out of such low skill occupational traps the insight from the dynamic model that is developed is that once they form new networks providing mutual support to their members and substituting for inherited parental human capital and wealth will strengthen most rapidly in historically disadvantaged communities generating a correspondingly high level of intergenerational mobility these predictions are successfully tested using unique data from india the analysis in this paper coupled with an emerging empirical literature on networks and migration provides a new perspective on mobility in developing countries with restrictive traditional networks decaying even as new networks supporting collective mobility form and strengthen over time

intergenerational mobility in britain in this paper we use longitudinal data on children and their parents to assess the extent of intergenerational mobility in britain based on data from the national child development survey a cohort of all individuals born in a week of march 1958 we find that the extent of intergenerational mobility is limited we report an intergenerational correlation of the order 40 to 60 for fathers and sons and 45 to 70 for fathers and daughters in terms of labour market earnings and years of schooling an examination of quartile transition matrices between parental and child earnings outcomes reveals a similar pattern finally it seems on the basis of these transition matrices that there is an important asymmetry in intergenerational earnings mobility with upward mobility from the bottom of the earnings distribution being more likely than downward mobility from the top

estimating credibility in colombia s exchange rate target zone abstract this paper analyzes credibility in the colombian exchange rate target zone a model of imperfect credibility in the spirit of bertola and svensson bertola g svensson l 1993 stochastic devaluation risk and the empirical fit of target zone models review of economic studies 60 689 712 is derived and estimated using colombian data the main feature of the model is that central parity depreciation expectations are endogenous with respect to the position of the exchange rate inside the target zone the krugman krugman p 1991 target zones and exchange rate dynamics quarterly journal of economics 56 3 669 682 perfectly credible setup is a particular case of this general model a key implication of the model is that depreciation expectations rise rather than fall as the exchange rate approaches the upper band using the method of simulated moments msm to estimate the structural parameters underlying the model i find evidence suggesting that colombia s exchange rate target zone is properly described by a model of this nature

intervention policy and mean reversion in exchange rate target zones the swedish the intervention policy of the swedish central bank is studied using daily intervention data for the late 1 980s in contrast to the first generation of target zone models we find that the interventions occur all over the exchange rate band and almost every day based on this evidence we estimate an exchange rate target zone model with intra marginal interventions the results go a long way towards explaining the well established hump shaped exchange rate distribution and lack of non linearities

income distribution and macroeconomics the persistence of inequality in a convex technology framework i show that non convexities in technology assumed in the capital market imperfection literature on the relationship between income distribution and economic development can be replaced by an assumption that the bequest function is convex with respect to income 2002 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

target zones for exchange rates and policy changes abstract we extend a target zone model to allow for occasional changes in the stochastic process driving fundamentals a key implication is that seeming speculative attacks may be triggered by market perceptions that macroeconomic policy has switched say from tight to loose this fundamental based explanation for large exchange rate changes accompanied by no discernible contemporaneous change in the fundamental is an alternative to theories based on self fulfilling expectations without relying on intra marginal intervention this model is better able to reproduce empirical exchange rate distributions with more mass at the center and less at the edges of the band

preferences for redistribution in the land of opportunities this paper explores how individual preferences for redistribution depend on future income prospects in addition to estimating the impact of individuals socioeconomic background and of their subjective perceptions of future mobility we employ panel data to construct dobjectivet measures of expected gains and losses from redistribution for different categories of individuals we find that such measures have considerable explanatory power and perform better than dgeneral mobilityt indexes we also find that preferences for redistribution respond to individual beliefs on what determines one s position in the social ladder ceteris paribus people who believe that the american society offers equal opportunities are more averse to redistribution d 2004 published by elsevier b v

parental altruism and inter vivos transfers theory and evidence this paper uses psid data on the extended family to test whether inter vivos transfers from parents to children are motivated by altruism specifically the paper tests whether an increase by one dollar in the income of parents actively making transfers to a child coupled with a one dollar reduction in that child s income results in the parents increasing their transfer to the child by one dollar this restriction on parental and child transfer income derivatives is derived for the standard altruism model augmented to include uncertainty and liquidity constraints these additional elements pin down the timing of inter vivos transfers the method used to estimate income transfer derivatives takes into account unobserved heterogeneity across families in the degree of altruism the findings strongly reject the altruism hypothesis redistributing one dollar from a recipient child to donor parents leads to less than a 13 cent increase in the parents transfer to the child far less than the one dollar increas

inequality mobility and redistributive politics abstract this paper develops a model where income inequality and intergenerational mobility are jointly determined via redistributive politics the model includes two key factors accessibility of tertiary education for poor born agents and multiple self fulfilling expectations of agents given these factors the model provides predictions of cross country differences in inequality and mobility consistent with empirical observations

social interactions and segregation in skill accumulation this paper studies human capital investment in a spatial setting with interpersonal complemen tarities a mixture of local and global social interactions affect the cost of acquiring education and the return to human capital is determined endogenously in the market we study how spa tially segregated investment equilibria are affected by an increase in the relative importance of global vis a vis local interactions per capita income level equality and welfare are shown to improve if the skilled constitute a majority to begin with and if not these implications are reversed we also examine the effects of wider local neighborhoods and lower mobility costs and study a related two group model based on social distance jel d31 o15 d85

social background education and inequality the role parents education plays for the educational achievements of children is a source of unequal opportunities through this channel the number of educated affects the options of future cohorts creating a social multiplier effect making improvements in education self reinforcing policies to compensate for inequalities of opportunities public education or transfers have very different implications transfers not only reduce inequality on impact but also reduce social mobility while public education even if a perfect substitute to private education works in the opposite direction social impediments to education are similar to a market imperfection and publicly provided education may lead to a pareto improvement jel d3 i2 h2 h4

interest rates in the nordic countries evidence based on devaluation expectations over the period 1979 92 investments in danish and norwegian kroner in the euromarket have had an annual excess return of about 2 and 1 1 per cent compared to investments in the euromarket in foreign currencies assuming risk neutrality the subjective probability of a devaluation within the next month is derived from the excess returns on the euromarket these derived probabilities are found to be inconsistent with the actual number of devaluations that have taken place over this period so that the probability of devaluation has been significantly overrated for denmark and norway

the impact of the 1980 depository institutions deregulation and monetary control act on market value and risk evidence from the capital markets the depository institutions deregulation and monetary control act of 1980 brought about major changes in the banking industry this study employs capital market data to examine the act s impact on the relative competitive positions of distinct classes of firms within the industry the evidence supports the hypothesis that federal reserve system banks profited from the regulatory change at the expense of nonmember banks and savings and loans copyright 1988 by ohio state university press

factor shares and savings in endogenous growth in models of steady investment driven growth an individual s propensity to save depends on how much of his income is drawn from accumulated factors of production capital rather than from nonaccumulated factors when agents are heterogeneous in this respect growth oriented policies have distributional consequences and in the absence of lump sum redistribution their implementation faces political constraints if the median voter is capital poor relative to the economy s representative agent political interactions tend to slow down growth when policy acts on capital s income share and tend to accelerate it when investment subsidies are the policy instrument of choice copyright 1993 by american economic association

a theory of trickle down growth and development this paper develops a model of growth and income inequalities in the presence of imperfect capital markets and it analyses the trickle down effect of capital accumulation moral hazard with limited wealth constraints on the part of the borrowers is the source of both capital market imperfections and the emergence of persistent income inequalities three main conclusions are obtained from this model first when the rate of capital accumulation is sufficiently high the economy converges to a unique invariant wealth distribution second even though the trickle down mechanism can lead to a unique steady state distribution under laissez faire there is room for government intervention in particular redistribution of wealth from rich lenders to poor and middle class borrowers improves the production efficiency of the economy both because it brings about greater equality of opportunity and also because it accelerates the trickle down process third the process of capital accumulation initially has the effect of widening inequalities but in later stages it reduces them in other words this model can generate a kuznets curve

new techniques to extract market expectations from financial instruments this paper is a selective survey of new or recent methods to extract information about market expectations from asset prices for monetary policy purposes traditionally interest rates and forward exchange rates have been used to extract expected means of future interest rates exchange rates and inflation more recently these methods have been refined to rely on implied forward interest rates so as to extract expected future time paths very recently methods have been designed to extract not only the means but the whole risk neutral probability distribution from a set of option prices

distributive politics and economic growth a crude distinction between economics and politics would be that economics is concerned with expanding the pie while politics is about distributing it in this paper we analyze the relationship between the two we focus on how an economy s initial configuration of resources shapes the political struggle for income and wealth distribution and how that in turn affects long run growth our main conclusion is that inequality is conducive to the adoption of growth retarding policies we derive this result from a simple political economy model of growth and present cross country evidence consistent with it the key feature of our model is that individuals differ in their relative factor endowments we distinguish between two types of factors an accumulated factor called capital and a nonaccumulated factor called labor growth is driven by the expansion of the capital stock which is in turn determined by individual saving decisions long run growth is endogenous as the aggregate production function is taken to be linearly homogeneous in capital and productive government services taken together the provision of government services is financed by a tax on capital because government services are productive a small tax on

bringing income distribution in from the cold the title of this presidential address is chosen to highlight the way in which the subject of income distribution has in the past been marginalised for much of this century it has been very much out in the cold there are signs that in the 1990s it is being welcomed back and i shall be referring to recent research but i would like to use this occasion to give further impetus to the re incorporation of income distribution into the main body of economic analysis this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the composition of public expenditure and economic growth abstract noting that the literature has focused on the link between the level of public expenditure and growth we derive conditions under which a change in the composition of expenditure leads to a higher steady state growth rate of the economy the conditions depend not just on the physical productivity of the different components of public expenditure but also on the initial shares using data from 43 developing countries over 20 years we show that an increase in the share of current expenditure has positive and statistically significant growth effects by contrast the relationship between the capital component of public expenditure and per capita growth is negative thus seemingly productive expenditures when used in excess could become unproductive these results imply that developing country governments have been misallocating public expenditures in favor of capital expenditures at the expense of current expenditures

intergenerational mobility and the process of development this paper offers an explanation for some evidence that intergenerational earnings mobility is higher in more developed economies and that mobility is positively correlated with wage equality in the model mobility promotes economic growth via its effect on the accumulation and allocation of human capital growth influences mobility via its effect on incentives to acquire education and its effect on liquidity constraints upon such acquisition in the process of development mobility increases and the distribution of education becomes better correlated with ability redistributive policy has a negative effect on growth in developed economies and a positive effect in developing economies

education cost intergenerational mobility and income inequality abstract using a modified version of the maoz and moav maoz y d and moav o 1999 intergenerational mobility and the process of development economic journal 109 458 677 697 model we show that the dynamics of income inequality and intergenerational mobility and the effects of technological changes on inequality depend crucially on the share of education cost in income

realignment expectations and the us dollar 1890 1897 was there a peso problem we investigate dollar sterling exchange rate expectations during the period 1890 1908 we show that the dollar faced a peso problem in that for much of the period financial markets expected it to depreciate against sterling but this never in fact happened i e expectations were persistently biased drawing on the economic history of the period we identify 11 events which probably gave rise to realignment expectations once the dollar s adherence to the gold standard was settled as a political matter in the 1896 presidential election expectations of dollar realignment abruptly subsided and united states interest rates fell relative to british rates

empirical features of the second generation target zone models mean reverting fundamentals and endogenous devaluation risk we show that within bertola and svensson s second generation target zone model mean reverting interventions and endogenous devaluation risk are closely interrelated over the period 1983 93 we analyze the degree of mean reversion in the underlying fundamental process as well as the term structure of interest rate differentials vis a vis germany for six exchange rate mechanism currencies for austria denmark and the netherlands and for belgium after 1990 our estimates are broadly in line with the first generation target zone model whereas those for france and italy are in accordance with the model that allows for endogenous devaluation risk jel f31 e43