on the measurement of risk aversion from experimental data attitudes towards risk are measured for households in northern zambia using an experimental gambling approach with real payoffs that at maximum were equal to 30 of average total annual income per capita the results of the experiment show decreasing absolute risk aversion and increasing partial risk aversion determinants of risk aversion are investigated using random effects interval regression model exploiting the panel data structure of the repeated experiments wealth indicator variables are found to be significant and partial relative risk aversion decreases as wealth increases females are found to be more risk averse than males

effects of household shocks on risk preferences and loss aversion evidence from upland smallholders of south east asia avoiding risk in financial decisions is credited to be a key contributor to persistent poverty and poverty traps in spite of this the methods used to measure behaviour under risk rarely reflect a

consistency of risk preference measures an artefactual field experiment from rural china a variety of measures have been developed to elicit individual risk preferences how these measures perform in the field in particular in developing countries with non student subjects is still a

the roles of risk and ambiguity in technology adoption we study the impacts of risk and ambiguity aversion on the adoption of new technologies specifically genetically modified gm corn and soy seeds we conduct experiments measuring risk and ambiguity aversion with midwestern grain farmers risk aversion has only a small impact on the timing of adoption of gm soy while ambiguity aversion has a large impact speeding up farmer adoption of gm corn we hypothesize that this unusual finding is due to the fact that gm corn often contains an insect resistance trait which reduces the ambiguity of pest damages for adopters gm soy never contains this insect resistance trait this highlights the importance of distinguishing between risk and ambiguity when studying the effects of aversion to uncertainty on adoption of new technologies

risk aversion and credit constraints in farmers decision making a reinterpretation in 1976 the agricultural development council sponsored a conference on risk uncertainty and agricultural development which has been summarised in a volume edited by james roumasset jean marc boussard and inderjit singh 1979 the volume provides an excellent review of the state of the art at that time however as discussed in the summary chapters of that volume there were few theoretical empirical or policy issues on which clear conclusions could be reached on the basis of knowledge then available in the intervening years progress has been made on a number of issues as a result of both empirical investigations and theoretical advances this paper concentrates on advances which have relevance to the controversy about the relative roles of risk aversion and credit constraints in limiting farmers investment levels especially for purchased inputs such as seeds or fertilizers in particular we review recent experimental studies on the extent of risk aversion among farmer populations in developing

adoption of agricultural innovations in developing countries a survey this paper reviews various studies which have provided a description and possible explanation to patterns of innovation adoption in the agricultural sector the survey points out that the tendency of many studies to consider innovation adoption in dichotomous terms adoption nonadoption may not be appropriate in many cases where the actual decisions are defined over a more continuous range more attention needs to be given to the socio cultural and institutional environment in area studies so that their interrelation with economic factors affecting adoption can be inferred the presence of several interrelated innovations is another aspect that needs to be considered more carefully in future research since a number of simultaneous decisions may be involved furthermore the possibility of regular sequential patterns in adopting components of a new technological package should be specifically addressed in future studies finally the impact of differential adoption rates on land holding distribution merits attention in future research

the distributive impact of land markets in uganda abstract this article presents first hand evidence about land distribution and the impact of land markets in central uganda this area is characterized by unequal distribution of land inheritance rural rural migration and active land markets we show that land markets and particularly land purchases tend to reduce the initial inequality in the initial inherited distribution of land land purchases by landless farmers in their native village represent an important part of this adjustment

using field experiments to elicit risk and ambiguity preferences behavioural factors and the adoption of new agricultural technologies in rural india abstractwe conduct a series of experiments in rural india in order to measure preferences related to risk loss and ambiguity by combining these results with a discrete choice experiment over new and familiar rice seeds we demonstrate how these behavioural parameters affect decisions to adopt new agricultural technologies especially when the new technologies are risk reducing we find that risk averse and loss averse individuals are more likely to switch to new seeds demonstrating risk reducing characteristics while contrary to expectations ambiguity averse individuals are no more willing to retain their status quo than switch to cultivating the new variety

risk aversion and expected utility theory a calibration theorem within the expected utility framework the only explanation for risk aversion is that the utility function for wealth is concave a person has lower marginal utility for additional wealth when she is wealthy than when she is poor this paper provides a theorem showing that expected utility theory is an utterly implausible explanation for appreciable risk aversion over modest stakes within expected utility theory for any concave utility function even very little risk aversion over modest stakes implies an absurd degree of risk aversion over large stakes illustrative calibrations are provided

optimal pollution taxation in a cournot duopoly it is well known that the optimal pollution tax in a competitive industry is equal to the marginal damage inflicted by the pollution it has also been shown that the optimal pollution tax on a monopoly is less than the marginal damage in this paper i derive the optimal pollution tax for a cournot duopoly if firms have different production costs the optimal tax rate may exceed the marginal damage this is so because the tax may be an effective instrument for allocating production from the less to the more efficient firm it is also shown that if one firm has a positive most preferred pollution tax the sum of consumer and producer surpluses will be declining in the tax at this level

using stated preferences and beliefs to identify the impact of risk on poor households abstract whilst the importance of uncertainty in shaping economic behaviour of poor households is widely acknowledged empirically identifying the impact of risk is difficult by using data on risk preferences and perceptions of risk collected through hypothetical questions in combination with more traditional measures of a household s ability to deal with risk this article identifies the impact of risk on production decisions it shows both that data on stated preferences and beliefs can be usefully utilised to explain household behaviour and that risk has a significant impact on the production decisions of poor households

a theory of corporate scandals why the usa and europe differ a wave of financial irregularity in the usa in 2001 2 culminated in the sarbanes oxley act a worldwide stockmarket bubble burst over this same period with the actual market decline being proportionately more severe in europe yet no corresponding wave of financial scandals involving a similar level of companies occurred in europe given the higher level of public and private enforcement in the usa for securities fraud this contrast seems perplexing this paper submits that different kinds of scandals characterize different systems of corporate governance in particular dispersed ownership systems of governance are prone to the forms of earnings management that erupted in the usa but concentrated ownership systems are much less vulnerable instead the characteristic scandal in such systems is the appropriation of private benefits of control this paper suggests that this difference in the likely source of and motive for financial misconduct has implications both for the utility of gatekeepers as reputational intermediaries and for design of legal controls to protect public shareholders the difficulty in achieving auditor independence in a corporation with a controlling shareholder may also imply that minority shareholders in concentrated ownership economies should directly select their own gatekeepers copyright 2005 oxford university press

the economics of fraudulent accounting we argue that earnings management and fraudulent accounting have important economic consequences in a model where the costs of earnings management are endogenous we show that in equilibrium low productivity firms hire and invest too much in order to pool with high productivity firms this behavior distorts the allocation of economic resources in the economy we test the predictions of the model using firmlevel data we show that during periods of suspicious accounting firms hire and invest excessively while managers exercise options when the misreporting is detected firms shed labor and capital and productivity improves our firm level results hold both before and after the market crash of 2000 in the aggregate our model provides a novel explanation for periods of jobless and investment less growth

manipulation and equity based compensation economists have long argued that a strong linkage between compensation and performance is essential for resolving the agency problem created by the separation of ownership and control in particular michael c jensen and kevin j murphy 1990 were very influential in giving impetus to the view that such incentives were in need of strengthening compared to accounting benchmarks the stock price is more forward looking and it is responsive to all value relevant information including informal and unverifiable items of news this makes stock and or option awards an important part of optimal incentives and constitutes a primary reason for seeking a public listing as argued by bengt holmstrom and jean tirole 1993 until recently however theories of optimal executive compensation have generally ignored the possibility that the stock price can be manipulated or falsified it is becoming increasingly clear that this is an important issue in a spate of recent scandals companies have misled the investing public by vastly overstating their profitability and prospects and substantive restatements of company accounts have become increasingly commonplace a growing body of empirical evidence suggests that executive pay in its current form may be at least in part responsible recent studies finding a link between unusual movements in performance measures such as accounting yardsticks and publicly disclosed price sensitive information and compensation include daniel bergstresser and thomas philippon 2006 natasha burns and simi kedia 2006 and peng and roell forthcoming thus the benefits of stock based incentives should be weighed against their side effects this paper models optimal executive compensation in a setting where managers are in a position to influence the public perception of manipulation and equity based compensation

exploring poverty traps and social exclusion in south africa using qualitative and quantitative data abstract recent theoretical work hypothesises that a polarised society like south africa will suffer a legacy of ineffective social capital and blocked pathways of upward mobility that leaves large numbers of people trapped in poverty to explore these ideas this paper employs a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods novel econometric analysis of asset dynamics over the 1993 98 period identifies a dynamic asset poverty threshold that signals that large numbers of south africans are indeed trapped without a pathway out of poverty qualitative analysis of this period and the period 1998 2001 more deeply examines patterns of mobility and confirms the continuation of this pattern of limited upward mobility and a low level poverty trap in addition the qualitative data permit a closer look at the specific role played by social relationships while finding ample evidence of active social capital and networks these are more helpful for non poor households for the poor social capital at best helps sta

choice under uncertainty evidence from ethiopia india and uganda we review experimental evidence collected from risky choice experiments using poor subjects in ethiopia india and uganda using these data we estimate that just over 50 of our sample behaves in accordance with expected utility theory and that the rest subjectively weight probability according to prospect theory our results show that inferences about risk aversion are robust to whichever model we adopt when we estimate each model separately however when we allow both models to explain portions of the data simultaneously we infer risk aversion for subjects behaving according to expected utility theory and risk seeking behaviour for subjects behaving according to prospect theory

time to change what to sow risk preferences and technology adoption decisions of cotton farmers in china this paper examines the role of individual risk attitudes in the decision to adopt a new form of agricultural biotechnology in china i conducted a survey and a field experiment to elicit the risk preferences of chinese farmers who faced the decision of whether to adopt genetically modified bt cotton a decade ago in my analysis i expand the measurement of risk preferences beyond expected utility theory to incorporate prospect theory i find that farmers who are more risk averse or more loss averse adopt bt cotton later farmers who overweight small probabilities adopt bt cotton earlier

household s risk attitudes in indonesian villages this paper estimates attitudes towards risk using data obtained through interviews of 400 households in villages in indonesia participants were invited to play investment games in order to identify household risk attitudes the game result supports the hypothesis of non decreasing partial relative risk aversion using an ordered probit model the determinants of risk attitude were investigated the results show that the variable of co residence is important an individual living with his or her parents is less risk averse than an individual in a nuclear household co residence can be viewed as a type of security blanket partial relative risk aversion decreases with the level of education and wealth

feed in subsidies taxation and inefficient entry we study energy markets with dirty production and lumpy entry costs of clean production renewables for intermediate entry costs markets yield inefficient production and inefficient entry a mix of three popular regulatory instruments polluter taxation feed in subsidies for renewables and consumption taxation cannot correct these market failures for larger entry costs the instruments are imperfect because they affect marginal incentives whereas entry is a lumpy fixed cost problem whenever the first best is implementable feed in subsidies and consumption taxes are redundant the second best requires feed in subsidies or consumption taxes in addition to a pollution tax and overshoots first best levels given production levels the instruments do not affect the regulator s budget

uncertainty duality and perversity an empirical test of the schultz baron hypothesis it has been suggested that supply curves may be negatively sloped under conditions of output price uncertainty and risk aversion if the effect of an increase in expected price is offset by the effect of an associated increase in uncertainty risk this hypothesis first articulated by schultz and given a more rigorous theoretical exposition by baron is tested using aggregate time series data to estimate a stochastic model of us agriculture based on a generalized leontief certainty equivalent profit function evidence of risk aversion and a positive correlation between mean output price and its variance are found however these factors are not strong enough to generate perversity thus the own price elasticity of supply of agricultural output is found to be positive with a value of 0 25 although no evidence of perversity is found the empirical results suggest that ignoring price uncertainty may bias estimates of aggregate supply response downwards by between 5 and 47 as well as testing the schultz

taxing average emissions to overcome the shutdown problem abstract the paper shows that the optimal regulation of stock pollutants can require fluctuating emissions even in the absence of uncertainty the optimum cannot be implemented by the usual pigouvian flow tax since it leads to a shutdown problem a remedy for the problem is to use a linear tax given by a mechanism that effectively taxes average emissions over time an alternative is to use tax schedules depending on cumulative emissions over a short period of time a calibration using cost estimates of greenhouse gases suggests that potential gains from fluctuating carbon emissions are considerable

misdeeds matter long term stock performance of firms after the filling of class action lawsuits consistent with theory this study of shareholder litigation found a broad transformation in company characteristics and risk exposures and generally negative short and long term performance effects that differed substantially between two types of allegations the findings have important implications for both regulator and institutional investor monitoring and decision making strategies

do we need the entry exit condition on polluting firms abstract given that marginal pollution damage increases with emissions a polluting firm s total pigouvian tax payments will exceed the total damage that it causes there is a long standing concern in the environmental economics literature that this disparity could force a polluting firm to shut down even though its net social product is positive however such a problem exists only in a partial equilibrium analysis in a conventional general equilibrium model with standard neoclassical price coordinated firms the fact that pigouvian taxes exceed total damages is as normal a phenomenon as producer or consumer surplus