does exchange rate variability depress trade flows evidence from error correction models this paper examines the impact of exchange rate volatility on the trade flows of the g 7 countries in the context of a multivariate error correction model the error correction models do not show any sign of parameter instability the results indicate that the exchange rate volatility has a significant negative impact on the volume of exports in each of the g 7 countries assuming market participants are risk averse these results imply that exchange rate uncertainty causes them to reduce their activities change prices or shift sources of demand and supply in order to minimize their exposure to the effects of exchange rate volatility this in turn can change the distribution of output across many sectors in these countries it is quite possible that the surprisingly weak relationship between trade flows and exchange rate volatility reported in several previous studies are due to insufficient attention to the stochastic properties of the relevant time series copyright 1993 by mit press

exchange rate volatility and irish uk trade 1979 1992 this study examines how exchange rate volatility affected ireland s exports to its most important trading partner the united kingdom from 1979 to 1992 to ensure reliable inferences regarding income and price elasticities and the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports the time series properties of the series used are investigated the analysis here is conducted at both aggregate and 2 digit sitc division levels since exchange rate volatility can reasonably be presumed to affect sectors differently since expectations matter for exchange rate determination real volatility was generated according to a first order garch process both real and nominal volatility were important determinants for over 35 of irish uk trade with positive effects predominating this may be due to the nature of irish firms operating in a small open economy where they have little option in dealing with increased exchange rate risk except to weather the storm for fear of losing market share or facing costs of either exit

measuring gross flows in the labor force an overview of a special conference the measurement of flows in the american labor market has challenged researchers for years several problems including response variability rotation group bias and matching errors hinder accurate measurement of the flows the bureau of the census and the bureau of labor statistics jointly sponsored a conference to examine these problems present current research on solutions to the problems and submit recommendations for improving the data recommendations include procedural changes in the current population survey as well as new estimation techniques

the dual structure of incomplete demand systems integrability of incomplete demand systems is discussed the concepts of weak integrability quasi expenditure function quasi indirect utility function and quasi utility function are defined their relationships to the expenditure function indirect utility function and utility function are developed the dual structure of the quasi functions permits exact welfare analysis and reveals the conditional preference structure for the commodities of interest new results relating the uniqueness and exactness of consumer s surplus to the structure of the expenditure and indirect utility functions are obtained

estimation of current quarter gross national product by pooling preliminary labor market data two methods of using labor market data as indicators of contemporaneous gross national product gnp are developed the establishment survey data are used by inverting a partial adjustment equation for hours a second gnp forecast can be extracted from the household survey by using okun s law using preliminary rather than final data adds about 2 to 4 percentage point to the expected value of the root mean squared errors and changes the weights that the pooling procedure assigns to the two forecasts the use of preliminary rather than final data results in a procedure that assigns more importance to the okun s law forecast

international fiscal policy transmission the paper examines international transmission of stochastic fiscal policy disturbances in a two country general equilibrium framework with possible excess supply equilibria with underutilization o

has the european monetary system led to more exports evidence from four european union countries abstract we attempt to investigate whether the exchange rate mechanism erm period has coincided with an increase in intra eu exports we conclude that this has not been the case but it is likely that the elimination of nominal exchange rate variability arising from a single currency will boost intra european union trade

exchange rate pass through and credit constraints abstract the macroeconomic evidence of the short term impact of exchange rates on exports and prices is notoriously weak this paper examines the microfoundations of this disconnect i study the response of firms export and price setting decisions to fluctuations in exchange rates and credit conditions using firm level survey data financially constrained firms pass through exchange rate changes to prices at almost twice the rate of unconstrained firms similarly their export volumes are about twice as sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations the effect of borrowing constraints is particularly strong during the recent financial crisis

asymmetric exchange rate exposure theory and evidence abstract this paper tests the hypothesis that exchange rate exposure is asymmetric over appreciation depreciation cycles more specifically it investigates whether returns on nine sector indexes across four major countries are asymmetrically affected by exchange rate movements the results show that in several instances exposure is asymmetric asymmetries are found to be more pronounced in the financial and non cyclical sectors possible theoretical explanations are provided regarding the particular type of exposure found across sectors and countries

pass through of exchange rates and tariffs in brazil u s tobacco trade this paper examines the extent to which exchange rate and tariff changes are passed through in u s import prices of unmanufactured tobacco from brazil the model used considers the possibility of market imperfections in international trade and the potential effects of strategic trade policies the results indicate that agricultural prices may not be as flexible as commonly thought furthermore exchange rate and tariff changes are not fully passed through to u s tobacco import prices which indicates that firms selling brazilian tobacco may use trade strategies to maintain or even increase their trade shares in the u s tobacco market

do the eu countries import at the same price the case of coffee the establishment of the economic and monetary union was expected to determine price convergence in the market of the european union leading to the equilibrium theorized by the law of one price this article investigates prices convergence in the coffee market among european importers coffee is not only a tradable and traded good but also one of the most valuable traded commodities we account for different qualities of coffee in a hedonic regression model which isolate and remove the effects of factors that might affect price dispersion adjusted import prices result to be significantly different between european member states and do not support the hypothesis of a deepening european market integration

symmetric pass through of tariffs and exchange rates under imperfect competition an empirical test abstract this paper examines the effect of tariffs and exchange rates on u s prices of japanese cars trucks and motorcycles in particular we test whether the long run pass through of tariffs and exchange rates are identical the symmetry hypothesis we find that this hypothesis is easily accepted in our sample we also find that the pass through relation varies across products ranging from about 0 6 for trucks to unity for motorcycles these coefficients have very different implications for trade policy we explain the results based on demand cost and institutional conditions in each industry

the commodity terms of trade unit roots and nonlinear alternatives a smooth transition approach market price dynamics for north american oriented strand board markets are examined specifically the role of transactions costs are examined vis a vis the law of one price weekly data for the january 3rd 1995 through april 14th 2006 period are used in the analysis nonlinearities induced by unobservable transactions costs are modeled by estimating smooth transition autoregressions stars results indicate that nonlinearity is an important feature of these markets and that the parity relationships implied by economic theory are generally supported by the star models implications for the efficiency of spatial market linkages are examined by estimating generalized impulse response functions

trade and trade policy with imperfect competition the case of identical products and free entry abstract this paper analyses intra industry trade between economies containing an imperfectly competitive industry in which firms produce a homogeneous output production is subject to increasing returns to scale and there is free entry and exit of firms trade is shown to unambiguously increase welfare by reducing the degree of monopoly in each market and increasing firm size the effects of differences in technology and endowments on the pattern of trade and welfare are examined import tariffs are shown to raise welfare in the country employing the tariff and the welfare implications of various types of industry subsidy are examined

an empirical analysis of the renminbi exchange rates and cross border trade settlement we introduce a gravity model to the currency choice for cross border trade settlement and the heckman selection model to estimate the impact of the exchange rate on the cross border trade settlement of the renminbi rmb we analyse bilateral exchange rates using panel data of china and 182 rmb settlement countries or areas from 2009 to 2014 we find that regardless the choice stage or scale stage of rmb cross border trade settlement the appreciation of the rmb does not necessarily promote rmb cross border trade settlement this result holds when we take geographic differences into account and split the settlement of cross border trade into merchandise and service trade we further investigate the channels through which exchange rate influences the cross border trade settlement of rmb and we find that the appreciation of rmb impedes enterprises from choosing rmb as their settlement currency by reducing the scale of export to rmb settlement areas whereas it speeds up rmb cross border trade settlement by increasing the scale of china s import from rmb settlement areas we find that china s economic strength supports the development of rmb cross border trade settlement however the geographical distance between china and the rmb settlement areas may inhibit cross border trade settlement in rmb

inferring the nutrient content of food with prior information given measurements on the nutrient content of the u s food supply and a coherent reduced form empirical model of the demand for foods we can analyze the effect of agricultural farm and food policy on nutrition using unpublished documents from the hnis estimates of the percentages of seventeen nutrients supplied by twenty one foods were compiled for the period 1952 1983 the bayesian method of moments is applied to this data set to obtain a proper prior for the purpose of drawing year to year inferences about the nutrient content of the u s food supply for the period 1909 1994 information theory and the kullback leibler cross entropy criterion are used to formalize the inference problem this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

high exchange rate volatility and low pass through abstract two specifications of an open economy model are shown to generate high exchange rate volatility and low exchange rate pass through erpt in the model price discrimination causes erpt to be incomplete in both the short and the long run in the short run a small amount of nominal rigidities is enough to reduce erpt sharply still exchange rate depreciation worsens the terms of trade consistent with the evidence possible biases from omitted variables and measurement error in the erpt empirical literature due to data limitations are investigated using model generated time series estimates of erpt coefficients can be quite different from true parameters and are sensitive to the shocks driving the economies estimates can nonetheless detect key structural features of the models

monetary union a welfare based approach abstract this article attempts to shed light on the consequences of the transition to emu for individual welfare following specific shocks to this end we develop a two country intertemporal general equilibrium model that extends the obstfeld and rogoff journal of political economy 103 3 1995 624 specification to nominal rigidities through price adjustment costs and pricing to market behavior we show that when facing a positive asymmetric permanent shock to either technology or government expenditures occurring in one country implementing a monetary union is beneficial to the households living in this economy conversely it is detrimental to foreigners further a sensitivity analysis shows that if the gains losses to implementing monetary union are qualitatively robust when facing changes in the degree of nominal rigidities and the elasticity of substitution between foreign and domestic goods they are quite sensitive to the degree of pricing to market in the economy

invoice currency choice nonlinearities and exchange rate pass through estimating time varying thresholds as a proxy for exporter s predicted exchange rates this study proposes a new approach to analyse possible asymmetric behaviour of exchange rate pass through erp

exchange rate volatility exchange rate regime and trade volume evidence from the uk us export function 1889 1999 abstract this paper investigated the impact of exchange rate volatility and exchange rate regime on the british exports to the united states using data for the period 1889 1999 the empirical findings suggest that neither exchange rate volatility nor the different exchange rate regimes that spanned the last century had an effect on export volume

is the sticky price assumption reasonable for exchange rate models abstract the testable implications of sticky price exchange rate models are discussed the empirical examples suggest that the predetermined or sticky price assumption employed in recent asset models of exchange rate determination appears to be appropriate for germany japan the united states and the united kingdom

exchange rate hysteresis large versus small policy misalignments abstract using a monetary model in the spirit of dornbusch 1976 and a sunk cost model of trade hysteresis we show that a sufficiently large policy misalignment can induce hysteresis in the trade balance and thereby alter the steady state real exchange rate hence exchange rate dynamics are path dependent since hysteresis in our model can entail industrial dislocation and the scrapping of sunk assets we suggest that these factors constitute a welfare cost of large policy misalignments that have not been considered formally additionally since the long run exchange rate is path dependent standard empirical tests of exchange rate models may involve a misspecification

non equivalent pass through of anti dumping duties countervailing duties and import tariffs we directly compare the short run pass through of tariffs anti dumping ad duties and countervailing cv duties into us import prices consistent with the theoretical predictions we find clear pattern of non equivalence in import price reaction to the three duty types with the most notable difference detected between ad duties and tariffs according to our estimates a tariff rate would have to be approximately two times higher than an ad duty rate in order to have the same effect on the delivered import price

purchasing power parity over two centuries abstract this paper re examines the purchasing power parity hypothesis for the dollar sterling exchange rate using the two centuries of data from lothian and taylor lt 1996 real exchange rate behavior the recent float from the perspective of the past two centuries journal of political economy 104 3 488 509 unlike lt we conclude that the dollar sterling rer is nonstationary implying a rejection of the long run ppp hypothesis the differences in our conclusions are explained by 1 sensitivity of adf unit root tests to the choice of lag length and or 2 the presence of significant time trends in the adf or phillips perron unit root test equations

effects of exchange rate variations on bilateral trade with a vehicle currency evidence from china and singapore abstract using a testable gravity type bilateral trade model derived from an underlying demand and supply model this paper explores the effects of exchange rate variations on bilateral trade in an exchange rate regime with a vehicle currency the introduction of the vehicle currency allows us to figure out whether variations in the trade volume due to the fluctuation of the bilateral exchange rate are primarily due to changes in demand or in supply or both more specifically in this theoretical framework the appreciation of one country s currency against the vehicle currency is expected to promote its imports but the effect of revaluation of the country s currency against the vehicle currency on its exports is ambiguous moreover high volatility of the exchange rate of one country s currency against the vehicle currency is also expected to depress its import volume from the empirical point of view the decomposition of the bilateral exchange rate of two currencies into the bilateral rates of these two currencies against the vehicle currency provides a new alternative to avoid the econometric problem of potential reverse causality in assessing the effects through compiling a novel monthly bilateral trade dataset between china and singapore over 21 years or 252 months we empirically test the predictions of our model which get robust support from the results

ppp strikes back aggregation and the real exchange rate we show the importance of a dynamic aggregation bias in accounting for the ppp puzzle we prove that the aggregate real exchange rate is persistent because its components have heterogeneous dynamics established time series and panel methods fail to control for this using eurostat data we find that when heterogeneity is taken into account the estimated persistence of real exchange rates falls dramatically its half life for instance may fall to as low as eleven months significantly below the consensus view of three to five years

import pricing and the trade balance in a popular model of exchange rate determination abstract this paper extends a popular model of exchange rate determination to include an import pricing relationship that is consistenc with imperfect competition in the importable sector the analysis highlights how import pricing behavior and aggregate macroeconomic relationships interact in determining the dynamics of the exchange rate the price of imports and the trade balance a basic prediction of the analysis is that an increase in the substitutability of imported product varieties in the domestic market will raise the responsiveness of the exchange rate and dampen the responsiveness of the trade account to monetary shocks

the empirical role of the exchange rate on the crude oil price formation this paper adopts a novel empirical approach to the crude oil price formation for the purpose of understanding the price reactions of opec member countries to changes in the exchange rate of the us dollar against other major currencies and prices of other members the results are broadly consistent with the view of the absence of a unified opec determined price in the international crude market literature in addition the results also highlight a cross regional dimension of the crude oil market

pass through of exchange rates and tariffs in greek us tobacco trade abstract the paper examines the extent to which exchange rate and unit tariff changes are passed through in us import prices of unmanufactured greek oriental tobacco the results indicate partial pass through of exchange rates and tariffs exchange rate pass through is about 0 272 and tariff pass through about 0 185 one possible reason for the partial pass through is oligopoly in tobacco exporting oligopoly would imply that depreciation of the drachma relative to the us dollar benefits tobacco exporters operating in greece a second possible reason is a possible correlation between exchange rates premiums paid to tobacco exporters in previous agricultural policies an important implication of this possible correlation is that greek tobacco prices may be more sensitive to exchange rate changes under the current agricultural policy

is price adjustment asymmetric evaluating the market share and marketing bottlenecks hypothesis abstract export price adjustment is asymmetric with respect to currency fluctuations in at least two circumstances if firms face capacity constraints in distribution networks or quantitative trade restrictions then pricing to market may be greater during depreciations of the exporter s currency if firms attempt to build market share subject to the threat of trade restrictions then pricing to market may be greater during appreciations of the exporter s currency this paper tests for asymmetries using panel data on german and japanese 7 digit industry exports the data seldom reject the hypothesis of a symmetric response of prices to exchange rates

singapore and the new regionalism bilateral trade linkages with japan and the us free trade areas ftas have recently become an integral part of singapore trade policy this paper discusses the reasons behind singapore s recent embracement of new regionalism with particular reference to the proposals to form ftas with japan and the us the paper goes on to examine various aspects of singapore s trade linkages with the two economic superpowers in some detail popular discussion of ftas gives one the appearance that such a trade policy is entirely benign the paper sounds a cautionary note highlighting some reasons to be concerned with singapore s recent embracement of the new regionalism

the effects of real exchange rate risk on international trade abstract by assuming real profit maximization and uncertain prices as well as exchange rates we conclude that it is uncertain percentage changes in the real exchange rate that are risky in international trade empirical estimation of fourteen bilateral trade flows among industrialized countries finds a significant negative effect on trade quantity from such risk in a number of these cases the expectation variable has a positive effect in a larger number of cases significant price effects from the expectation variable are fewer and from risk are negligible

adjustment costs uncertainty and the behavior of the firm this paper examines the effects of demand and cost uncertainty on a firm s investment output and pricing decisions but unlike most earlier studies in which demand and cost are simply not known at the time an output or pricing decision is made here i consider uncertainties over future demand and costs it will be seen that the effects of such uncertainties depend critically on the characteristics of the firm s adjustment costs i treat demand uncertainty in a dynamic context by letting the market demand function shift randomly but continuously through time according to a stochastic process this means that today s demand is known exactly but future demand may be larger or smaller and has a variance that increases with the time horizon likewise uncertainty over factor costs is characterized by treating those variables as stochastic processes i combine this characterization of uncertainty with a dynamic model of the firm in which some factor inputs can be adjusted freely in response to stochastic demand changes but other factors are quasi fixed in that adjustment costs are incurred when they are changed in this model the firm s price and output are random processes but we can examine the firm s behavior in expected value terms of interest is whether the presence of uncertainty should cause competitive or monopolistic firms to invest and produce more or less than they would otherwise how the effects of uncertainty are influenced by the presence of risk aversion and how the use of inventories can alter the impact of uncertainty on capacity and sales of course these questions have been addressed by others in the past among the earliest studies of demand uncertainty are those of edwin mills 1959 1962 and samuel karlin and charles carr 1962 mills examined a single period monopolistic firm that sets both output and price and showed that additive demand uncertainty i e the demand function is of the form q q p u where u is a random variable leads to a lower price if marginal cost is constant so that the firm reduces the expected loss from discarding unsold production karlin and carr confirmed for both the static case and the multiperiod case with inventory carryover that additive uncertainty tends to reduce the price and increase the output of a risk neutral firm while multiplicative uncertainty does the opposite other papers have been concerned with the way in which the error term enters the demand function additively multiplicatively or nonlinearly the implications of choosing price ex ante instead of output the implications of risk aversion and the use of inventories for example agnar sandmo 1971 and david baron 1970 showed that a risk averse competitive firm will produce less when the price is a random variable or subject to an additive error term but a riskneutral firm will not alter its production hayne leland 1972 extended these results to a monopolistic firm whose demand can depend in a general way on a random error term for example q q p u and showed that uncertainty reduces the production of a

sectoral effects of exchange rate volatility on united states exports abstract we analyze the effects of real exchange rate volatility on the proportions of bilateral exports of nine categories of goods from the united states to seven major industrial countries using a fixed effect framework in six of the nine categories the volatility of the real exchange rate significantly affects the value of exports and in five of these categories the effect is positive these results are consistent with a model in which risk neutral firms increase supply of elastically demanded exports in response to an increase in the volatility of the real exchange rate

effects of rotation group bias on estimation of unemployment previous analysis of rotation group bias in the current population survey has concluded that if the biases are additive the ratio and composite estimators of month to month change in unemployment are unbiased this article shows that if the biases contain a multiplicative aspect both estimators of change are then biased the article also presents some empirical results that cast doubt on the validity of a purely additive model

exchange rate volatility and export performance a cointegrated var approach during the last decades norwegian exporters have despite various forms of exchange rate targeting faced a rather volatile exchange rate which may have influenced their behaviour recently the shift to inflation targeting and a freely floating exchange rate has brought about an even more volatile exchange rate we examine the causal link between export performance and exchange rate volatility across different monetary policy regimes within the cointegrated vector autoregression var framework using the implied conditional variance from a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity garch model as a measure of volatility although treating the volatility measure as either a stationary or a nonstationary variable in the var we are not able to find any evidence suggesting that export performance has been significantly affected by exchange rate uncertainty we find however that volatility changes proxied by blip dummies related to the monetary policy change from a fixed to a managed floatin

imported inputs and invoicing currency choice theory and evidence from uk transaction data a significant proportion of international trade is in intermediate goods this paper considers theoretically and empirically how exporters dependence on imported inputs affects their choice of invoicing currency the model predicts that exporters that depend more on foreign currency denominated inputs are less likely to price in their home currency i test this and other theoretical results using a novel dataset that covers uk trade transactions with non eu countries i find considerable support for the model s predictions a 10 percentage point higher share of foreign currency denominated inputs is associated with a 20 percentage point higher probability of pricing in the same foreign currency relative to the producer s currency

recovering the shadow value of nutrients this article investigates the shadow values of twenty eight different nutrients it links the unit price of foods to the shadow values of nutrients by building on a utility theoretic model first proposed by gorman maximum entropy principles are then used to reason consistently about the values of the parameters of interest the resulting estimates are discussed and analyzed

average of forecasts an improvement stein rules are used in forming combination forecasts such forecasts have smaller prediction risk under certain conditions than the preferred method of average of forecasts the new composite forecasts will be theoretically biased but are likely to have smaller mean squared error of forecasts as shown in the empirical exercises examined when the forecasts appear to be unbiased and have a common mean lindley type combination is most useful

international deviations from the law of one price the role of search frictions and market share this article examines the size and persistence of international deviations from the law of one price in an industry with search frictions cost differences lead foreign and domestic firms to price differently within countries when local firms are more common in each country there are large and persistent price differences across countries large and persistent changes in international relative costs lead to large and persistent changes in international relative prices dynamic considerations imply that the amount of a cost shock firms pass through to prices is u shaped in the market share of firms receiving the shock

the evolution of rotation group bias will the real unemployment rate please stand up we document that rotation group bias the tendency for the unemployment rate to vary systematically by month in sample in the current population survey cps has worsened over time estimated unemployment rates for earlier rotation groups have grown sharply relative to later rotation groups both should be nationally representative samples this bias increased discretely after the 1994 cps redesign and rising nonresponse rates are likely a significant contributor survey nonresponse increased after the redesign mirroring the evolution of rotation group bias consistent with this explanation rotation group bias for households that responded in all eight interviews remained stable over time

pass through of exchange rates and purchasing power parity abstract in this paper we develop and test two hypotheses about purchasing power parity ppp the first is that changes in the price of traded goods relative to domestic substitutes will affect the ppp relation due to the partial pass through of exchange rates the second is that ppp should hold on forward rather than spot exchange rates due to hedging by firms which implies that the interest rate differential should enter the ppp relation for spot rates using quarterly data for several countries we find support for both these hypotheses though the magnitude of the interest rate effect is very small

currency composition of international bonds the emu effect abstract we analyze the impact that the launch of the emu had on the currency denomination of private international bond issues in 1990 2006 using micro level data our stylized model predicts that the introduction of the euro would lead to an increase in the share of euro denominated debt and a decline in the share of dollar denominated debt issued by firms located in countries outside both the united states and the euro area moreover our model predicts that the euro effect would be particularly pronounced for nonfinancial firms our empirical results are consistent with these predictions in addition we find that among nonfinancial firms the impact on new issuers is larger than on seasoned issuers extending the model to allow for differences in issuance volumes across future monetary union countries prior to integration we also predict larger increases in euro denominated issuance among firms from smaller monetary union countries we confirm this prediction for international bond issues by euro area firms

parity reversion persistence in real exchange rates middle income country case this article investigates purchasing power parity ppp in the specific context of middle income countries to circumvent the low power of traditional stationarity tests augmented dickey fuller and phillips perron tests it performs variance ratio and fractional integration tests in addition to perron s test that accounts for potential structural changes in real exchange rate processes beyond estimating half life shocks to ppp this article attempts to explain these estimates using a set of country specific variables as suggested by economic theory the evidence suggests that reversion to parity tends to be faster in high inflation countries and that productivity improvement leads to a higher level of persistence openness to trade tends to reduce the extent of deviations from parity but this result does not appear to be statistically robust evidence shows also that deviations are less persistent under a fixed exchange rate regime and under unrestricted capital mobility

price formation in an open economy theory and evidence for the united kingdom 1951 1991 price formation is an increasingly important part of modern macroeconomics however the empirical literature on price setting is diverse and confused this paper uses cointegration techniques to test theories of price setting on uk aggregate data for 1951 91 we find i domestic prices are determined by both domestic costs and world prices and ii at the macroeconomic level prices are related to marginal cost rather than average or normal cost

exchange rates and investment in united states industry the path of the dollar has significantly influenced investment activity in u s industry the effects of both exchange rate levels and exchange rate volatility have been more pronounced in the 1980s than in the 1970s although aggregate investment data mask some of these relationships the effects of exchange rates on investment are most pronounced in the disaggregate data for manufacturing durable goods sectors and nonmanufacturing sectors these relationships also have changed over time in contrast to the conventional wisdom in the 1980s real dollar depreciations appreciations were likely to be associated with investment contractions expansions copyright 1993 by mit press

exchange rate effects on inputs and outputs in canadian agriculture in a seminal piece of work schuh demonstrates using a single market partial equilibrium model that exchange rates have a large impact on the price received for farm products he argued that the overvalued u s dollar reduced export demand and the domestic price of u s grains since then much of the work on estimating the impact of exchange rate changes on agriculture has implicitly assumed that inputs to the agricultural sector come from the nontraded sector we argue this assumption can result in an error in the estimation of the effects of exchange rates in an examination of the passthrough of changes in the us cdn exchange rate we find the data from 1975 to 1989 are consistent with the hypothesis of a complete passthrough of exchange rates for many important variable inputs to canadian agricultural production this analysis indicates that while exchange rates may have had significant impacts on the return to fixed factors and farm income they have had little effect on grain production in the case of livestock feeding in canada exchange rate devaluations may actually reduce production and reduce the return to fixed factors because inputs especially grain are more tradeable than outputs finally we examine the potential welfare impact on nontradeables such as land from changes in the exchange rate theoretical model

the short run behaviour of prices and output in the exportables sector the case of german machinery abstract the paper addresses the issues raised by the simultaneity between the supply function and the domestic and foreign demand for exportables analysing the microeconomic foundations of the simultaneous price and output decisions of a firm which operates in the exportables sector of an open economy facing a domestic and a foreign demand for its output a specific characteristic of the model is that it allows for the possibility of price discrimination which is suggested by the observed divergencies in the behaviour of domestic and export prices the famework developed is used to investigate the recent behaviour of prices and output in two industries of the german manufacturing sector

exchange rates and traded goods prices abstract this paper presents a partial equilibrium model of the determination of domestic and export prices by a monopolistic competitive firm the model stresses the role of exchange rate uncertainty and expectations the most important result of the analysis is that the stochastic properties of deviations from the law of one price are crucially affected by the currency of denomination of export prices using data on domestic and dollar export prices of japanese goods i find that deviations from the law of one price are due to exchange rate surprises but also to price staggering and ex ante price discrimination

international price dispersion in state dependent pricing models menu cost models predict a hump shaped relationship between real and nominal exchange rate volatility the hump occurs at higher values of nominal exchange rate volatility the higher trade costs and lower international substitution elasticities are these predictions accord well with the negative relationship between relative price and nominal exchange rate volatility i document using a data set of prices collected in eastern europe in a volatile environment in contrast trade costs must be sufficiently high or international substitution elasticities low in order for the model to account for the positive correlation between real and nominal exchange rate volatility in the aggregate data

the response of the us export prices to changes in the dollar s effective exchange rate further evidence from industry level data the relationship between the dollar s effective exchange rate and the export price indexes for 13 two digit us manufacturing industries is analysed to determine i which industry adjusts its dollar export price to dampen or amplify the effect of the exchange rate fluctuations on the foreign currency price of its exports and ii whether the response of the export price index to appreciation and depreciation of the exchange rate is asymmetric for several industries evidence consistent with dampening the foreign currency price of exports in an asymmetric fashion is found the implications of the results for the price competitiveness of the industries studied is discussed

adjustment costs and pricing to market theory and evidence abstract this paper develops an adjustment cost model of pricing to market the model consists of a monopolist who supplies an identical nondurable good to two foreign markets it is shown that the degree of pricing to market increases with the relative importance of the transitory component in exchange rates customs data from 1978 through 1987 on u s and canadian imports of seven german commodities are used to estimate the model s parameters and test its over identifying restrictions

exchange rate volatility and exports a firm level analysis the relationship between real exports and exchange rate volatility is investigated using panel data analysis at the firm level results indicate that there is no negative or positive relationship between volatility and real exports in addition firm size and level of international activity do not influence the size and significance of the volatility effect on exports however there is some evidence that firms use import revenue to lower their exchange rate exposure

rotation group bias in measures of multiple job holding reported multiple job holding rates in the u s are found to be substantially higher among workers in their first month in the cps sample the first rotation group with rates declining in subsequent rotation groups true rates should not differ across rotation groups using 22 years of cps data multiple job holding rates based solely on the first rotation group were 27 5 percent higher than official rates based on all rotation groups rotation group bias worsened over time and could account for as much as one quarter of the measured decline in multiple job holding

exchange rate pass through for strategic pricing and advertising abstract this paper builds a model in the new empirical industrial organization framework bresnahan t 1989 industries and market power in schmalensee r willig r eds handbook of industrial organization north holland amsterdam to estimate exchange rate pass through in price and advertising price cost margins market structure and firm conduct are estimated endogenously allowing for precise estimation of the degree of and reasons for incomplete pass through i demonstrate that price and advertising pass through are functions of demand cost and market conduct in the short run in the long run the market conduct and cost technologies are in turn determined by the exchange rate movements 1997 elsevier science b v

bootstrap testing for cointegration of international commodity prices this paper investigates cointegration with respect to nine commodity groups traded on international markets nonparametric bootstrapping is utilized in the testing procedure of the 21 pairs of price series investigated here for 13 the no cointegration null hypothesis is rejected in favour for the cointegration of the series in addition to five out of the remaining eight cases that were not cointegrated a plausible explanation is the prevailing trade policy thus a great majority of the institutionally nonregulated cases turn out to get empirical support for being cointegrated an important statistical finding is that the augmented dickey fuller test for cointegration cradf generally yields p values that are close to the p values obtained by the bootstrap testing but once they differ substantially it is usually an indication of irregular periods e g structural changes in the series the paper conducts also a monte carlo simulation experiment to investigate the power and size properties of the t

real exchange rates and macroeconomics evidence and theory since the early 1980s a large body of research has thrown doubt on the relevance of macroeconomic models for understanding exchange rates the authors argue that a balanced reading of recent literature in exchange rate economics gives a more optimistic assessment many studies have established the pertinence of long run purchasing power parity ppp and the explanatory power of macroeconomic fundamentals in real exchange rate fluctuations a reasonably strong case can be made for a traditional macroeocnomic interpretation of real exchange rates which emphasizes short run price stickiness but long run ppp but a central new ingredient in this interpretation is the presence of international commodity market segmentation and persistent deviations from the law of one price an example is given of a dynamic general equilibrium model that can reproduce some of the observed features of real exchange rate fluctuations

export pricing flexible exchange rates and divergence in the prices of traded goods abstract a model of firm pricing where customers adjust slowly to price differences is extended to an exporting firm under flexible exchange rates the foreign currency price the firm sets determines both current net revenue and the rate of investment in market share real exchange rate changes lead to price revisions but the protracted adjustment of customers prompts a smaller price response to transitory changes in the real exchange rate the model accounts for observed variations in traded goods prices across countries and the failure of exporting firms to pass through exchange rate changes but in contrast to static models does not predict frequent reallocation of traded goods production

oil currency and the dollar standard a simple analytical model of an international trade currency the u s dollar is the central reference currency for international trade pricing and the main invoicing currency for primary commodities this paper links these two observations within a stylized theoretical framework and shows how to obtain a quantitative estimate of the gain to the u s economy when the dollar is a reference currency with dollar invoicing of primary commodities u s firms bear less exchange rate risk than foreign firms this asymmetry leads to a dollar standard in international goods pricing we then derive a simple analytical formula to calculate the gains and find that they are extremely small

transmission of nominal exchange rate changes to export prices and trade flows and implications for exchange rate policy we discuss how the welfare ranking of fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes in a new open economy macroeconomics model depends on the interplay between the degree of exchange rate pass through and the elasticity of substitution between home and foreign goods we identify combinations of these two parameters for which flexible and fixed exchange rates are superior with respect to welfare as measured by a representative household s utility level we estimate the two parameters for six non emu european countries czech republic hungary poland slovakia sweden and the uk using a heterogeneous dynamic panel approach

feasible estimation of firm specific allocative inefficiency through bayesian numerical methods both the theoretical and empirical literature on the estimation of allocative and technical inefficiency has grown enormously to minimize aggregation bias ideally one should estimate firm and input specific parameters describing allocative inefficiency however identifying these parameters has often proven difficult for a panel of chilean hydroelectric power plants we obtain a full set of such parameters using gibbs sampling which draws sequentially from conditional generalized method of moments gmm estimates obtained via instrumental variables estimation we find an economically significant range of firm specific efficiency estimates with differing degrees of precision the standard gmm approach estimates virtually no allocative inefficiency for industry wide parameters copyright 2009 john wiley sons ltd

product differentiation and oligopoly in international markets the case of the u s automobile industry this paper develops and estimates a model of the u s automobile industry on the demand side a discrete choice model is adopted that is estimated using micro data from the consumer expenditure survey the estimation results are used in conjunction with population weights to derive aggregate demand on the supply side the automobile industry is modelled as an oligopoly with product differentiation equilibrium is characterized by the first order conditions of the profit maximizing firms the estimation results are used in counterfactual simulations to investigate two trade policy issues the effects of the ver and exchange rate pass through

advancing the design of a dynamic petro dollar currency basket this study offers organization of petroleum exporting countries opec member nations a crude oil pricing currency basket based on currency liquidity in contrast with prior emphasis on opec trading patterns motivating the search for an alternative us dollar pricing of crude oil is the significant and inverse relationship r 0 82 p 0 01 between the us dollar major currencies index and crude oil price over the period january 1999 march 2009 a dynamically weighted petro dollar currency basket is proposed based on the five currency claims us dollar euro british pound japanese yen and swiss franc and their varying proportions of foreign exchange reserves held by central banks the major currencies us dollar index is compared against the proposed petro dollar index to reveal an average us 8 1 billion annual gain in favor of the petro dollar currency basket offering opec members a revenue stream of diversified and highly liquid currencies to transition away from complete dependence on the us dollar crude oil pricing the proposed petro dollar crude oil pricing schema offers opec a crude oil price dynamically denominated in currencies reflecting the global use and importance of crude oil this paper concludes with implementation issues facing a move toward the dynamically weighted petro dollar crude oil pricing schema

exchange rates and prices the adjustment of relative prices to exchange rate movements is explained in an industrial organization approach given labor costs in the respective currencies exchange rate movements change costs for firms selling in the home market and thus disturb the industry equilibrium the extent of absolute and relative price adjustment is shown to depend on market integration product substitutability the relative number of domestic and foreign firms and the market structure the impact of exchange rates on prices is illustrated in a variety of approaches including the cournot a dixit and j stiglitz 1977 and s salop 1979 models some empirical evidence is offered in support of the theory copyright 1987 by american economic association