technology strategy and financial performance examining the moderating role of the firm s competitive environment abstract success in today s competitive environment requires a company to pursue a coherent technology strategy to articulate its plans to develop acquire and deploy technological resources to achieve superior financial performance this strategy clarifies the company s choices on being a technological pioneer or a follower the breadth of the technology product and process portfolios amounts of investments in internal r d and external sources of technology and levels of technological forecasting to be performed in turn these choices require making decisions on the basic and applied r d to be conduced the intended offensive or defensive uses of the technology and emphasis on incremental and radical r d to date however few studies have attempted to document the collective implications of a company s technological choices for its financial performance in response data from 176 manufacturing companies were used to examine the association between a company s technology strategy and its financial performance and to explore the moderating effect of the environment on the technology strategy performance link therefore the study focused on a company s perceptions of environmental dynamism hostility and heterogeneity dynamism indicated the perceived continuity of changes in an industry hostility referred to the changes in the industry that could adversely impact the firm s operations and performance heterogeneity meant that the environment encompassed many segments with different needs the study developed and empirically tested the following hypotheses 1 h1a pioneering will be highest among firms whose environments are highly dynamic moderately hostile and moderately heterogeneous 2 h1b followership will be highest among firms whose environments are highly hostile and moderately dynamic but low in heterogeneity 3 h2a radical product technologies will be pursued most by firms whose environments are highly dynamic moderately hostile and moderately heterogeneous 4 h2b radical process technologies will be pursued most by firms whose environments are moderately dynamic moderately hostile and moderately heterogeneous 5 h2c incremental product and process technologies will be pursued most by firms whose environments are stable low dynamism benign low hostility and highly heterogeneous 6 h3 the broadest technological portfolios will exist among firms whose environments are characterized by moderate dynamism high heterogeneity and moderate or low hostility 7 h4 r d spending will be highest among firms whose environments are highly dynamic highly heterogeneous and highly benign low in hostility 8 h5 the use of external technology sources will be highest among firms whose environments are highly dynamic highly hostile and highly heterogeneous 9 h6 emphasis on technological forecasting will be highest among firms whose environments are highly dynamic highly hostile and highly heterogeneous 10 h7 the environment is a quasi moderator of the technology strategy performance relationship the results supported the study s hypotheses except h2c and h3 and suggested five ideas for managerial action 1 executives should develop and use a comprehensive technology strategy to ensure that their company achieves superior financial performance 2 executives should be cautious in applying generic prescriptions of how to utilize technological resources to achieve profitability because the financial payoff from technology strategy variables varies from one environment to the other instead executives should examine their company s goals capacity to manage diverse product and process initiatives risk taking orientation resources and the environment 3 attention to developing and using process technology innovation is necessary for success in fact a broad process innovation portfolio is positively associated with return on assets in the overall sample and in three of the study s five clusters 4 managers need to adopt a long term perspective in making r d investments where patient investments over several years are the norm increasing r d spending should not be viewed as a quick fix for the company s poor competitive position 5 whereas the external sources of technology can improve the company s performance managers should identify the conditions under which external sources can be used and educate their employees on the growing importance of these technologies for achieving profitability

the future of macroeconomics macro theory and models at the bank of england abstract the adoption as policy models by central banks of representative agent new keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models has been widely criticised including for their simplistic micro foundations at the bank of england the previous generation of policy models is seen in its 1999 medium term macro model mtmm instead of improving that model to correct its considerable flaws many shared by other non dsge policy models such as the federal reserve s frb us it was replaced in 2004 by the dsge based beqm though this clearly failed during and after the global financial crisis it was replaced in 2011 by the dsge compass complemented by a suite of models we provide a general critique of dsge models for explaining forecasting and policy analyses at central banks and suggest new directions for improving current empirical macroeconomic models based on empirical modelling broadly consistent with better theory rather than seeking to impose simplistic and unrealistic theory

measuring entrepreneurship over time abstract this article is a review of three measurement issues that impact the study of entrepreneurship over time 1 level of analysis difference between firms and individuals 2 differences between rate and stock measures and 3 the effects of choosing particular time frames on subsequent analytical results based on theory that views entrepreneurship as depending on ownership rights hawley 1907 this article develops a longitudinal measure of entrepreneurship in the united states the number of organizations per capita the problems and advantages of using a measure based on organizations per capita as an indicator of entrepreneurship is examined understanding how and what is being measured in studies of changes in entrepreneurship over time is an important issue for academic researchers and public policy makers measurement of changes in entrepreneurship over time can shed light on important research questions and public policy issues about entrepreneurship for example is entrepreneurship increasing in the united states if entrepreneurship is increasing is this trend comparable to any previous time periods or is the current increase in entrepreneurship a new or unique social phenomenon what influences changes in entrepreneurship over time the choice of certain measures of entrepreneurship is likely to influence the answers to these questions for example the measures used in an entrepreneurship study are an implicit specification of one s views of entrepreneurship e g entrepreneurship as self employment or firm creation and few measures of entrepreneurship reflect critical changes in important environmental influences e g technological change because of short measurement time frames therefore determining the contribution of entrepreneurship to the well being of an economy is dependent on understanding what measures of entrepreneurship are utilized for making these evaluations and the time frame used for these measures we review three measurement issues that impact the study of entrepreneurship over time 1 level of analysis differences between firms and individuals 2 differences between rate and stock measures and 3 the effects of choosing particular time frames on subsequent analytical results based on theory that views entrepreneurship as depending on ownership rights hawley 1907 this article develops a longitudinal measure of entrepreneurship in the united states the number of organizations per capita studies of entrepreneurship focus on either individual level activity e g self employment or on firm level activity e g new incorporations self employment research focuses on individuals who employ themselves that is individuals who report wages but not wages paid to them by other individuals or organizations in most studies of the self employed firm founders would therefore be classified as wage earners and not as entrepreneurs new firm research focuses on the rate of new firm entrants typically measured as new incorporations so such businesses as proprietorships or partnerships will not be counted a rate is a change from one state to another e g the number of people who become self employed for a specific year or the number of new firms created for a specific year whereas a stock specifies a particular level e g much like a stock of inventory such as the number of self employed or a particular number of firms for a specific time period it is important to recognize that entry into business does not necessarily guarantee remaining in business for example although the number of people who become self employed may increase for a specific year the number of people who remain self employed may actually decrease if more of the self employed fail to remain in business than those that enter the stock of the self employed can decrease if the outflow of self employed is greater than the inflow for those persons interested in whether entrepreneurial activity results in wealth creation either individually or societally the realization that entry into business may not lead to a sustainable business and therefore no creation of wealth should be a signal that measuring rates of business formation and rates of self employment may not be appropriate for this type of research the factors that drive changes in the rate of entrepreneurship are not likely to be manifest over short timeperiods changes in values attitudes technology government regulations and world economic and social changes have a significant influence on changes in entrepreneurship over time studies that have measured entrepreneurship over recent time periods are therefore likely to miss the influence of these variables we introduce a measure of entrepreneurship organizations per capita based on a theory of entrepreneurship as ownership this measure shows the stock of organizations in the u s economy over time from 1857 to 1992 the problems and advantages of using a measure based on organizations per capita as an indicator of entrepreneurship is examined we conclude with some suggestions for improving entrepreneurship research by recognizing the limitations of particular longitudinal entrepreneurship measures and by challenging the field to seek convergent validity among measures

welfare consequences of the six year presidential term evaluated in the context of a model of the u s economy we evaluate the six year presidential term proposal in the context of a model of the u s economy characterized by a short run but not a long run trade off between inflation and unemployment votes and public welfare are separately conceptualized as functions of inflation and unemployment which are indirectly controlled by the president through manipulation of government spending in a series of simulation experiments the vote maximizing choice of policy instruments led to less we fare loss with six than with four year terms under most conditions ironically vote maximizing was shown to lead not only to short and long term welfare loss but also to long run political disadvantage

the impact of house prices on consumption in the uk a new perspective this paper proposes an alternative approach to the question of how house prices influence household consumption by focusing on their impact on mortgage equity withdrawal and household saving household level data are used to derive a measure of expected and unexpected changes in house prices these are then incorporated into a recursive bivariate probit model of the decision to withdraw housing equity and save the results suggest that households respond to changes in their housing wealth primarily by increasing their mortgage borrowing rather than by decreasing their savings although this is mainly for younger households however while changes in housing wealth do not have a direct impact on household saving they do have an important indirect impact since they increase the likelihood that the household will withdraw equity which in turn has a negative impact on household saving

monetary policy and macroprudential policy different and separate the paper discusses how monetary and macroprudential policies can be distinguished how appropriate goals for the two policies can be determined whether the policies are best conducted separately or coordinately and by the same or different authorities and how they can be coordinated when desired the institutional frameworks in canada sweden and the uk are briefly compared the swedish example of monetary policy strongly leaning against the wind and the subsequent policy turnaround is summarized as well as what estimates have been found of the costs and benefits of leaning against the wind politique monetaire et politique macro prudentielle differente et separee ce memoire se demande comment on peut distinguer les politiques monetaire et macro prudentielle comment on peut determiner les objectifs de ces deux politiques si ces deux politiques ont un meilleur impact separement ou coordonnees et mises en uvre par la meme ou differentes autorites et comment on peut les coordonner quand on le desire on compare succinctement les cadres institutionnels du canada de la suede et du royaume uni la politique monetaire suedoise va fortement a contre courant et le virage subsequent de la politique est resume ainsi que les couts et avantages de cette strategie

the expansion of foreign direct investments discrete rational location choices or a cultural learning process it is recognized in the literature that experience may affect the cost and the uncertainty of operating in foreign markets and experience and market knowledge may therefore influence the location decisions of fdis economic theory does not however predict a general expansion pattern of fdis across industries on the other hand the theory associated with the internationalization process approach highlights the importance of cultural distance and predicts a movement from close to more distant markets as more experience is acquired by the firm the internationalization process approach is rooted in a behavioral theory of the firm

the estimation of surprise models and the surprise consumption function in the first part of the paper we outline a method for estimating a class of models in which news or surprises appear and expectations are formed rationally the method is an extension of the errors in variables method of mccallum and wickens as a by product some of pagan s results on the circumstances under which the commonly used two step method of estimating surprise models is efficient are shown to be a consequence of well known theorems on the efficiency of sub system estimation when a subset of equations are exactly identified in the second part of the paper the method is applied to hall s random walk model of consumption which is extended to allow for stochastic interest rates and for leisure and government spending to be substitutes for private spending the extended formulation is a great deal more successful at capturing the salient features of the data we also derive approximate restrictions across the parameters of the model due to the rational expectations hypothesis but find that they are marginally rejected by the data finally we evaluate the ability of the life cycle with rational expectations model to encompass alternative models

aggregate employment real business cycles and superior information abstract we test whether dynamic stochastic general equilibrium artificial economies associated with several labor market structures provide an adequate characterization of aggregate employment volatility and dynamics our test is robust to possible misspecifications about the information set used by economic agents to forecast future events accounting for agents superior information we find that the divisible labor indivisible labor labor adjustment costs and labor hoarding structures replicate employment volatility in contrast to the nominal wage contracts structure also the labor hoarding structure provides a substantially better account of employment dynamics

finance and business cycles the credit driven household demand channel what is the role of the financial sector in explaining business cycles this question is as old as the field of macroeconomics and an extensive body of research conducted since the global financial crisis of 2008 has offered new answers the specific idea put forward in this article is that expansions in credit supply operating primarily through household demand have been an important driver of business cycles we call this the credit driven household demand channel while this channel helps explain the recent global recession it also describes economic cycles in many countries over the past 40 years

habit formation in consumer preferences evidence from panel data this paper tests for the presence of habit formation using household data a simple model of habit formation implies a condition relating the strength of habits to the evolution of consumption over time when the condition is estimated with food consumption data from the panel study on income dynamics the results yield no evidence of habit formation at the annual frequency this finding is robust to a number of changes in the specification it also holds for several proxies for nondurables and services consumption created by combining psid variables with weights estimated from consumer expenditure survey data

house prices home equity based borrowing and the u s household leverage crisis us household leverage sharply increased in the years preceding the 2007 eco nomic recession the top panel of figure 1 shows the steady rise in household debt since 1975 which accelerated beginning in 2002 in just five years the household sector doubled its debt balance in comparison the contemporaneous increase in corporate debt was modest the middle panel shows that the increase in household debt from 2002 to 2007 translated into a striking rise in household leverage as mea sured by the debt to income ratio during the same time period corporate leverage declined the dramatic absolute and relative rise in us household leverage from 2002 to 2007 is unprecedented compared to the last 25 years one reason for the rapid expansion in household leverage during this period is that mortgage credit became more easily available to new home buyers mian and sufi 2009 strong house price appreciation from 2002 to 2006 however which may have been fueled by the availability of mortgage credit to a riskier set of new home buyers could also have had an important feedback effect on household lever age through existing homeowners given that 65 percent of us households already owned their primary residence before the acceleration in house prices the feedback from house prices to borrowing may be an important source of the rapid rise in household leverage that preceded the economic downturn our central goals in this study are to estimate how homeowner borrowing responded to the increase in house prices and to identify which homeowners responded most aggressively we examine this home equity based borrowing channel using a dataset consisting of anonymous individual credit files of a national consumer credit bureau agency we follow a random sample of over 74 000 us homeowners who owned their homes as of 1997 at an annual frequency from the end of 1997 until the end of 2008 the bottom panel of figure 1 plots the growth in debt of 1997 homeowners over time and shows that existing homeowners borrow significantly more debt as their house prices appreciate from 2002 to 2006 while the aggregate trend is suggestive

housing finance and monetary policy we document three facts concerning how the structure of housing finance affects the monetary transmission mechanism first the characteristics of residential mortgage markets differ markedly across industrialized countries second the impact of monetary policy shocks to residential investment and house prices is significantly stronger in those countries with larger flexibility development of mortgage markets third the transmission to consumption is stronger only in those countries where mortgage equity release is common and mortgage contracts are predominantly of the variable rate type we then build a two sector dsge model with financial constraints to rationalize those facts

household balance sheet channels of monetary policy a back of the envelope calculation for the euro area abstract this paper formulates a back of the envelope approach to study the effects of monetary policy on household consumption expenditures we analyze several transmission mechanisms operating through direct partial equilibrium channels intertemporal substitution and net interest rate exposure and indirect general equilibrium channels net nominal exposure as well as wealth collateral and labor income channels the strength of these forces varies across households depending on their marginal propensities to consume their balance sheet composition the sensitivity of their own earnings to fluctuations in aggregate labor income and the responsiveness of aggregate earnings asset prices and inflation to monetary policy shocks we quantify all these channels in the euro area by combining micro data from the hfcs and the eu lfs with structural vars estimated on aggregate time series we find that the indirect labor income channel and the housing wealth effect are strong drivers of the aggregate consumption response to monetary policy and explain the cross country heterogeneity in these responses

housing really is the business cycle what survives the lessons of 2008 09 the downturn of 2008 09 has confirmed that i housing is the single most critical part of the u s business cycle ii the proper conduct of monetary policy needs to be cognizant that choices made at one point in time affect the options later and iii the best time to intervene in the housing cycle is when the volume of building is above normal and growing more so what was different this time was the rapid and substantial decline in home prices

booms and busts in the uk housing market the often volatile behaviour of uk house prices between 1957 and 1994 is analysed in an annual econometric model theory suggests that financial liberalisation of mortgage markets in the 1980s should have led to notable shifts in house price behaviour the evidence supports the predictions of theory suggesting shifts took place in wealth effects as in the consumption function and that real interest rates and income expectations became more important the presence of transactions costs suggests important nonlinearities in house price dynamics the paper also contains an explicit econometric treatment of expectations demography supply spillovers from the rented sector and of composition biases in the official house price index

permanent and transitory movements in labor income an explanation for excess smoothness in consumption many have argued that if labor income is difference stationary the permanent income hypothesis predicts that consumption should be relatively volatile in u s aggregate data labor income is well characterized as having a unit root however consumption turns out to be relatively smooth this anomaly is known as deaton s paradox i resolve deaton s paradox by providing decompositions of labor income into permanent and transitory components these preserve the univariate dynamic properties of labor income however when agents distinguish permanent and transitory movements in their labor income as the rational expectations hypothesis asserts they should the permanent income hypothesis correctly predicts the observed smoothness in consumption

the great mortgaging housing finance crises and business cycles this paper unveils a new resource for macroeconomic research a long run dataset covering disaggregated bank credit for 17 advanced economies since 1870 the new data show that the share of mortgages on banks balance sheets doubled in the course of the twentieth century driven by a sharp rise of mortgage lending to households household debt to asset ratios have risen substantially in many countries financial stability risks have been increasingly linked to real estate lending booms which are typically followed by deeper recessions and slower recoveries housing finance has come to play a central role in the modern macroeconomy

the political viability of rule based monetary policy we have estimated two models explaining political support for the president as a function of economic performance one model reflects the assumption characterizing most of the literature that voters indiscriminately punish inflation and unemployment without regard to the tradeoffs between them the other represents a more demanding conception of voter sophistication about macroeconomic possibilities and about control of the money supply while the data do not unambiguously designate a best model of behavior the sophisticated voter hypothesis performs as well as the naive voter hypothesis in the context of our study clearly this result is subject to the usual econometric caveats including possible misspecification of the model multicollinearity among independent variables etc however there is no particular reason to believe that these problems should favor one model as opposed to the other thus while we cannot conclude that voters really think in terms of rates of growth of velocity and natural output we can question the conventional wisdom that consistent rule based monetary policies may not be politically viable

on the relationship between firm size and export intensity export marketing literature supports the view that firm size is positively related to export intensity although the empirical findings have been mixed a number of theoretical arguments are used to support this proposition i e international marketing economies of scale limited managerial and financial resources of small firms decisionmaker s risk perception based on a large survey of the italian manufacturing industry the article falsifies the proposition and challenges some widely held assumptions in export marketing literature

international orientation as a precondition for export success every country particularly if it depends on foreign trade to such a high degree as the federal republic of germany has a vital interest in exploiting all its export opportunities the authors have developed a measurement concept focusing on the foreign orientation of business managers their empirical research suggests that as many as one third of the small and medium sized firms with a primarily domestic focus in their country could be turned into successful exporters the paper not only reveals obstacles to exporting as perceived by the managers of these companies but also points to specific measures to improve the efficiency of existing export promotion programs

a new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the business cycle abstract this paper introduces a general procedure for decomposition of non stationary time series into a permanent and transitory component allowing both components to be stochastic the permanent component is shown to be a random walk with drift and the transitory or cyclical component is a stationary process with mean zero the decomposition methodology which depends only on past data and therefore is computable in real time is applied to the problem of measuring and dating business cycles in the portwar u s economy we find that measured expansions and contractions are of roughly equivalent duration and that our dating of cyclical episodes tends to lead the traditional nber dating and to a lesser extent the growth cycle chronology of zarnowitz and boschan 1977

household expenditure and the income tax rebates of 2001 using questions expressly added to the consumer expenditure survey we estimate the change in consumption expenditures caused by the 2001 federal income tax rebates and test the permanent income hypothesis we exploit the unique randomized timing of rebate receipt across households households spent 20 to 40 percent of their rebates on nondurable goods during the three month period in which their rebates arrived and roughly two thirds of their rebates cumulatively during this period and the subsequent three month period the implied effects on aggregate consumption demand are substantial consistent with liquidity constraints responses are larger for households with low liquid wealth or low income

does there exist a political business cycle a box tiao analysis theories of the political business cycle are by now common they range from the elegant theoretical work of nordhaus 1975 to the essentially empirical work of tufte 1978 they all assume that politicians manipulate the economy to aid their reelection efforts in particular politicians manipulate macroeconomic policy to create a boom just before election day golden and poterba 1980 provide an excellent review of this literature both tufte and nordhaus provide casual evidence for the existence of a political business cycle using inflation and unemployment rates as indicators of macroeconomic outcomes tufte and nordhaus predict at a minimum that unemployment should be decreasing before election day if presidents are really manipulating the economy very well then unemployment should be at a minimum in the october before the election and hence should be rising after the election in the nordhaus version the economy pays for the pre election boom with a post election surge in the inflation rate nordhaus also suggests that the president should engineer a recession early in his term to reduce inflationary expectations tufte 1978 20 presents graphs of the unemployment series and claims that visual examination shows them to be generally consistent with the hypothesis however he provides no statistical tests of the hypothesis nor does he estimate the quantitative impact of elections on unemployment tufte does not examine the inflation series nordhaus restricts himself to comparing unemployment rates in the two years preceeding and following an election with a simple nonparametric test supporting the hypothesis the literature provides several good empirical tests of the political business cycle hypothesis both paldam 1979 and mccallum 1978 test for the existence of four year cycles and find none however they do not test for discontinuous changes in the series around election day golden and poterba examine whether the use of policy instruments changes near election day and

microeconomic heterogeneity and macroeconomic shocks in this essay we discuss the emerging literature in macroeconomics that combines heterogeneous agent models nominal rigidities and aggregate shocks this literature opens the door to the analysis of distributional issues economic fluctuations and stabilization policies all within the same framework in response to the limitations of the representative agent approach to economic fluctuations a new framework has emerged that combines key features of heterogeneous agents ha and new keynesian nk economies these hank models offer a much more accurate representation of household consumption behavior and can generate realistic distributions of income wealth and albeit to a lesser degree household balance sheets at the same time they can accommodate many sources of macroeconomic fluctuations including those driven by aggregate demand in sum they provide a rich theoretical framework for quantitative analysis of the interaction between cross sectional distributions and aggregate dynamics in this article we outline a state of the art version of hank together with its representative agent counterpart and convey two broad messages about the role of household heterogeneity for the response of the macroeconomy to aggregate shocks 1 the similarity between the representative agent new keynesian rank and hank frameworks depends crucially on the shock being analyzed and 2 certain important macroeconomic questions concerning economic fluctuations can only be addressed within heterogeneous agent models

what happened financial factors in the great recession abstract at the onset of the recent global financial crisis the workhorse macroeconomic models assumed frictionless financial markets these frameworks were thus not able to anticipate the crisis nor to analyze how the disruption of credit markets changed what initially appeared like a mild downturn into the great recession since that time an explosion of both theoretical and empirical research has investigated how the financial crisis emerged and how it was transmitted to the real sector the goal of this paper is to describe what we have learned from this new research and how it can be used to understand what happened during the great recession in the process we also present some new empirical work we argue that a complete description of the great recession must take account of the financial distress facing both households and banks and as the crisis unfolded nonfinancial firms as well exploiting both panel data and time series methods we analyze the contribution of the house price decline v

household wealth and macroeconomic activity 2008 2013 this paper provides estimates of the effects of the fall in financial and housing wealth in 2008 09 on overall macroeconomic activity when the wealth losses are run through a structural macroeconometric model it is estimated that the fall in wealth contributed about 2 1 percentage points to the rise in the unemployment rate in 2009 and about 3 3 points in 2010 the contribution to the fall in real gdp was 4 5 and 5 4 in the 2 years these estimates account for most but not all of the recessionary increase in unemployment the remaining increase in unemployment may have resulted more directly from financial stresses but little evidence is found for this in this study

mortgage debt consumption and illiquid housing markets in the great recession using a model with housing search endogenous credit constraints and mortgage default this paper accounts for the housing crash from 2006 to 2011 and its implications for aggregate and cross sectional consumption during the great recession left tail shocks to labor market uncertainty and tighter down payment requirements emerge as the key drivers an endogenous decline in housing liquidity amplifies the recession by increasing foreclosures contracting credit and depressing consumption balance sheets act as a transmission mechanism from housing to consumption that depends on gross portfolio positions and the leverage distribution low interest rate policies accelerate the recovery in housing and consumption

house prices and credit constraints making sense of the us experience most us house price models break down in the mid 2000s due to the omission of exogenous changes in mortgage credit supply associated with the sub prime mortgage boom from house price to rent ratio and inverted housing demand models previous models lack data on credit constraints facing first time home buyers incorporating a measure of credit conditions the cyclically adjusted loan to value ratio for first time buyers into house price to rent ratio models yields stable long run relationships more precisely estimated effects reasonable speeds of adjustment and improved model fits

multiple bgps in a growth model with habit persistence this paper establishes multiple balanced growth paths in an otherwise standard competitive growth model without externality or distortions and with households preference dependent upon how his her consumption compares to a habit stock formed by his her own past consumption the key feature in our model is that consumption forms habits in combination with existing habits this model establishes multiple equilibria because habit persistence induces an internal intertemporal complementarity effect among consumption flows with current consumption reinforcing future consumption as a result there exist two balanced growth paths with one path exhibiting low consumption and habits and high economic growth and the other path exhibiting high consumption and habits and low growth that is not necessarily a development trap both steady states are saddles but global indeterminacy arises where a high balanced growth path co exists with a low balanced growth path where the two equilibrium paths cannot be pareto ranked and history need not matter for the selection of the equilibrium path

a new view of political accountability for economic performance most political support models imply that in evaluating economic performance voters use a standard that would provide poor predictions of the future and leave the economy vulnerable to manipulation by vote hungry politicians drawing on macroeconomic theory we develop a simple standard of evaluation which encompasses a concern not only for current economic outcomes but also for accurately assessed future consequences of current policies we find that political support for the president can be explained as well by models that assume that voters use this sophisticated standard as by models that assume voter naivete our analysis questions the wisdom of measures typically used to assess voter evaluation of economic performance in a variety of theoretical contexts the results also help to explain the absence of convincing evidence that governments exploit voter ignorance in manipulating the economy

multicointegration in us consumption data the present study tests for the existence of multicointegration between real per capita private consumption expenditure and real per capita disposable personal income in the usa in doing so the study exploits the fact that the flows of disposable income and consumption expenditure on the one hand and the stock of consumers wealth which can be considered as cumulative past discrepancies between the flows of income and expenditure on the other hand can be thought of as a stock flow model in which multicointegration is likely to occur recently developed i 2 techniques are applied for testing for multicointegrating relations and find supporting evidence for the existence of multicointegration in us consumption data

saving and liquidity constraints this paper is concerned with the theory of saving when consumers are not permitted to borrow and with the ability of such a theory to account for some of the stylized facts of saving behavior the models presented in the paper seem to account for important aspects of reality that are not explained by traditional life cycle models copyright 1991 by the econometric society

presidential popularity and macroeconomic performance are voters really so naive f ollowing the pioneering work of kramer 1971 numerous studies have analyzed the relationships between the macroeconomic performance of political administrations and their popularity or vote getting ability kramer s work showed that the aggregate congressional vote for an incumbent party can be explained rather well by variables indicating recent economic performance subsequent works have extended kramer s research by explaining presidential vote or gallup poll popularity data with similar models on one point almost all of these studies agree 2 votes and popularity can be explained well by models which suppose that voters judge policymakers on the basis of retrospective evaluation of past macroeconomic outcomes most authors interpret their results as being supportive of the hypothesis of rational voters since the evidence indicates that voting decisions are not based purely upon personalities party affiliation or chance kramer argued that if voters regard past macroeconomic performance of an administration to be indicative of future performance then a concern with past performance indicates a concern for future performance voters who simply extrapolate from the past to predict the future are rather naive however a sophisticated voter who has an understanding of the important intertemporal constraints embodied in the structure of the economy would be able to forecast future consequences of current policy choices more accurately than one who simply extrapolates if votes and popularity are simply functions of past outcomes then voters must either be ignorant of the basic structure of the economy or unconcerned with the future the supposition that voters are so naive might run counter to the intuition of most economists who generally assume individual rationality as a central behavioral postulate nevertheless the empirical results noted above have been accepted by many as evidence that voters do misperceive their own long run interest the implications of the naive voter hypothesis for macroeconomic policymaking are disturbing nordhaus 1975 has developed a model which shows that voter naivete can encourage vote maximizing politicians to induce political business cycles and an inflationary bias there is some but not unanimous empirical support for the existence of politically motivated business cycles and casual empiricism also suggests that politicians themselves believe in the naive voter 3 while studies show that empirical evidence is consistent with the notion that voters are concerned with the recent past the results do not reject a sophisticated voter hypothesis none of the aforementioned studies has tested a model consistent with a sophisticated voter hypothesis i e a model in which voters understand what outcomes are feasible in the long and short runs and are concerned with future as well as current and past economic performance in this paper we develop such a model and estimate it using gallup poll data on presidential popularity results of this model are compared to results from a naive voter model similar to those employed in previous research received for publication february 4 1982 revision accepted for publication july 30 1982 university of south carolina i am grateful for helpful comments provided by ray fair douglas hibbs william keech daniel richards abel l da costa fernandes and an anonymous referee i also wish to thank william keech for providing me with the gallup poll data on presidential approval rates aurel schubert provided excellent research assistance fair 1978a bloom and price 1975 arcelus and meltzer 1975 and pollard 1981 a 1981 b have all estimated models to explain voting while frey and schneider 1978 and hibbs i 982a 1982b have developed models to explain presidential popularity 2 an exception is provided by arcelus and meltzer 1975 3nordhaus 1975 and tufte 1978 have provided evidence of political business cycles for a number of western democracies and frey and schneider 1978 and maloney and smirlock 1981 have estimated policy reaction functions suggesting that the timing of elections affects policymaking see tufte for a discussion of casual empirical evidence indicating that politicians believe that current economic conditions affect electoral outcomes

saving and income smoothing evidence from panel data abstract in this paper we use data from a panel of dutch households to investigate the behavior of savings as in campbell 1987 we examine whether the pattern of savings is consistent with the predictions of the rational expectations permanent income model we consider one important prediction of the model whether savings anticipate future income changes we test the predictions of the permanent income model in several ways first we propose some informal tests that exploit directly the information on expected future income changes available in the data we then perform a test of the model by setting up a vector autoregression var in terms of savings and income changes and by using euler equations expressed in terms of savings the empirical evidence shows that in all the specifications used in this paper the permanent income model is rejected contrary to the evidence from u s macro data we do not find that the excess sensitivity of consumption to income is responsible for the rejection of the model

the deaton paradox in a long memory context with structural breaks this article contributes to the permanent income hypothesis pih and excess consumption smoothness debate in the context of fractional integration we show that the excess consumption smoothness result is a consequence of the quarterly data frequency commonly employed in the empirical work in fact the i 1 hypothesis is rejected for the income process with monthly data in favour of a fractional integration order lower than 1 moreover if a structural break is taken into account we observe a substantial reduction in the degree of consumption smoothness especially after the break found in 1975

credit supply and the price of housing we show that since 1994 branching deregulations in the u s have signi cantly af fected the supply of mortgage credit and ultimately house prices with deregulation the number and volume of originated mortgage loans increase while denial rates fall but the deregulation has no eect on a placebo sample formed of mortgage compa nies that should not be aected by the regulatory change this sharpens the causal interpretation of our results deregulation acts to relax access to mortgage credit and pushes the demand for house ownership outwards interestingly the fraction of securi tized mortgage loans remains unchanged through the process we nd evidence house prices rise with branching deregulation and particularly in metropolitan areas where construction is inelastic for topographic reasons we document these results in a large sample of counties across the u s we also focus on a reduced cross section formed by counties on each side of a state border where a regression discontinuity approach is possible our conclusions are strengthened jel classi cation numbers g21 g10 g12

the contributions of angus deaton angus deaton was awarded the 2015 sveriges riksbank prize in economic sciences in memory of alfred nobel for his analysis of consumption poverty and welfare this article reviews his contributions to economics

constellations of firms and new ventures abstract firm growth is typically described as from the inside out an integrated process of resource capture supplementing the traditional view of growth from within this article focuses on how small firms come into being and grow resorting to cooperative relationships with external organizations through such a process new firms come into being without notable direct investments and grow without significant employment increases the emerging organizational design stresses the importance of constellations constellational structures suggest that organizations do not survive as isolated and self sufficient entities rather they are strongly tied to supportive quasi infrastructural collectives firms grow through various and changing interorganizational relationships we suggest that a growth path of firm disintegration is positively associated with flexibility cost reductions and more favorable competitive position that the success of this path in different industries and countries makes a venturing without investing process more than a small is beautiful fad we find regularities in growth patterns at the beginning an unplanned constellation of firms each geared to solving short term contingent problems planned interfirm linkages and partnerships geared to greater effectiveness arise in more advanced stages in this manner the competitive position of the constellation is improved this article suggests underlying conditions facilitating the growth of organizations that use synergies and the constellations resources effectively

international versus domestic entrepreneurship new venture strategic behavior and industry structure abstract international entrepreneurship is defined in this study as the development of international new ventures or start ups that from their inception engage in international business thus viewing their operating domain as international from the initial stages of the firm s operation one hundred and eighty eight new venture firms in the computer and communications equipment manufacturing industries are classified according to the percentage of their sales in the international market ventures with no sales derived from international activities are considered domestic new ventures and ventures with sales from international activities comprising greater than 5 of total sales are considered international new ventures the strategy and industry structure profiles of international new ventures are significantly different from domestic new ventures the internationals pursue much broader market based strategies seeking a strategy of broad market coverage through developing and controlling numerous distribution channels serving numerous customers in diverse market segments and developing high market or product visibility the internationals also emphasize a more aggressive entry strategy building on outside financial and production resources to enter numerous geographical markets on a large scale securing patent technology is also an important component of their strategy this suggests that the internationals compete by entering the industry on a large scale seeking to penetrate multiple markets with the recognition that external resources are necessary to support such an entry whereas both the domestics and the internationals characterize domestic competition as being relatively intense the international new ventures compete in industries with higher levels of international competition it is not clear from this research whether the new venture selects an industry with a high degree of international competition and therefore responds with an international orientation or because the new venture has an international orientation it perceives or recognizes a higher degree of international competition another industry structure difference is the internationals perceived higher degree of restrictiveness due to government regulation it is unclear whether this restrictiveness motivates new ventures to seek less regulated international environments or if it indicates that when competing internationally the new venture is confronted with increased regulatory requirements domestic new ventures are distinguished by their emphasis on a production expansion strategy and customer specialization strategy the production specialization strategy consists of focusing on limited geographical markets maintaining excess capacity and pursuing forward integration the customer specialization strategy incorporates the production of a specialty product that is purchased infrequently thus for both of the domestic strategies a consistent closeness between the producer and consumer is implied this may be an important basis underlining the new venture s decision to compete in an exclusive domestic context this study offers initial support for the notion of international entrepreneurship by its findings that there are significant differences between new venture firms competing domestically and new ventures choosing to also enter international markets

does buffer stock saving explain the smoothness and excess sensitivity of consumption one of the lasting contributions to modernday consumer theory is the idea that consumption is determined by the expected value of lifetime resources or permanent income the modern day specification of this concept is typically presented as a special case of intertemporalchoice theory where felicity functions are quadratic labor income is stochastic there are no restrictions on borrowing consumers have infinite horizons and expectations are formed rationally we refer to this model as the permanentincome hypothesis pih although the pih has considerable intuitive appeal a series of influential papers published after its inception revealed two notable discrepancies between the model s predictions and aggregate data first the model predicts that consumption growth should be more volatile than income growth if aggregate income growth has positive serial correlation as the quarterly data suggest it does yet aggregate consumption growth is in fact much smoother than aggregate income growth angus deaton 1987 john y campbell and deaton 1989 jordi gali 1991 second the pih predicts that consumption changes should be orthogonal to predictable or lagged income changes yet the coffelation between consumption growth and lagged income growth has been found to be one of the most robust features of aggregate data for example marjorie a flavin 1981 alan s blinder and deaton 1985 campbell and n gregory mankiw 1989 orazio p attanasio and guglielmo weber 1993 thus aggregate consumption growth has been described as exhibiting two puzzles it is both excessively smooth relative to current labor income growth and excessively sensitive to lagged labor income growth 2 in response to these and other empirical anomalies researchers have recently sought out modifications of the pih framework chief ludvigson federal reserve bank of new york 33 liberty street new york ny 10045 michaelides university of cyprus p o box 20537 1678 nicosia cyprus a previous version of this paper appeared under the title can we explain the consumption excesses yet aggregate consumption implications of buffer stock saving behavior for many helpful comments we thank orazio attanasio dave backus ben bernanke john y campbell christopher carroll todd clark angus deaton pierreolivier gourinchas bo honore james kahn martin lettau costas meghir christina paxson steve pischke andrew samwick christopher sims mark watson guglielmo weber michael woodford steve zeldes and two anonymous referees conference participants at the national bureau of economic research summer workshop on the aggregate implications of microeconomic consumption behavior july 1998 the tmr workshop on saving and pensions center tilburg university march 1999 and the new york area macroeconomics workshop october 1998 seminar participants at columbia university insead the new york federal reserve university college london london business school city university business school university of cyprus tel aviv university and jeffrey brown for excellent research assistance the views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the federal reserve bank of new york or the federal reserve system any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the authors 1 note that the important insight of danny quah 1990 that individuals may be better able than econometricians to distinguish short run from long run innovations to their income cannot resolve the excess smoothness puzzle laid out in campbell and deaton 1989 these authors show that in the context of the pih excess sensitivity and excess smoothness are the same phenomena in addition campbell 1987 demonstrates that superior information of the type emphasized by quah will show up in households saving behavior and using this information allows the econometrician to control for the agent s private information when predicting income since excess sensitivity is well established and controlling for saving does not eliminate it see campbell and deaton 1989 the observed smoothness of consumption cannot be explained by superior information on the part of permanent income consumers see deaton 1992 for further discussion 2 philippe bacchetta and stefan gerlach 1997 and ludvigson 1999 document another kind of excess sensitivity the correlation between consumption growth and predictable changes in consumer credit although we do not explore these findings here ludvigson finds that a bufferstock model with time varying liquidity constraints can replicate such a correlation

is the uk balance of payments sustainable the uk current account deficit john muellbauer and anthony murphy the uk has a large and persistent current account deficit policy makers argue that the deficit is easily financed temporary and therefore not a sign of structural weakness we examine the conditions in which it is appropriate for a country to overspend its current income with the intention of repaying loans out of future income these include an increase in international capital mobility larger net holdings of foreign assets and expectations of faster productivity growth all three apply to the uk so official reasoning is in part correct even so for several decades there has been a trend deterioration of uk trade performance most markedly in manufacturing and we detect no underlying improvement in the 1980s we highlight structural deficiencies in both demand and supply on the demand side we show the importance of rising house prices and easier consumer credit in fuelling the consumer boom to an unwarranted extent this we trace to unjustifiable subsidies to house ownership on the supply side we stress vastly inadequate investment in skill formation education and physical capital these structural deficiencies lead us to a less optimistic view than official policy we draw the policy lessons for the uk and consider whether continental europe will face similar problems as financial markets are liberalized

business cycles and the political process the interrelationship between the political sector and the macroeconomy in democratic societies has been examined extensively in recent years research in this area has generally been concerned with two issues first following the lead of kramer 16 various authors have examined the impact of economic conditions on congressional 1 13 21 24 and presidential elections 4 5 the results at the congressional level have been mixed but it is reasonably safe to conclude that economic conditions do affect presidential elections the second issue and the one of primary concern in this study has dealt with the development of models of politico economic interaction the basic concept in these models is that an administration s popularity and therefore the probability of staying in power depends critically on economic conditions knowing this the administration seeks to manipulate the economy in order to maintain power the use of economic tools for political goals by governments is well established in the literature theoretical contributions by nordhaus 20 and macrae 18 have demonstrated the potential for a politically motivated business cycle in a world of politico economic interaction empirical support for the existence of such a cycle is provided by the work of frey and schneider 7 8 9 the main purpose of this paper is to develop a theoretical model of the political business cycle that generates empirically testable proposition the goal is to integrate the theoretical conclusions of a formal model similar to the nordhaus 20 and macrae 18 framework with the empirical support provided by frey and schneider 7 8 9 the possibility of a political business cycle is important for several reasons in macroeconometric models government policy that is endogenous to the system is usually treated as if it were exogenous this may cause serious misspecification errors further forecasts of the future course of economic events which depend heavily on government action will be inaccurate unless the political motivations of governments are considered

the other commercial real estate boom and bust the effects of risk premia and regulatory capital arbitrage abstract in the 2000 s u s commercial real estate cre prices experienced a boom and bust as dramatic as the more widely analyzed swings in house prices and contributed significantly to bank failures we model short run and long run movements in capitalization rates rent to price ratio and risk premia for office building and apartments in the mid 2000s boom cre prices were mainly driven by declines in required risk premia that stemmed from a weakening of capital requirements in the bust cre price declines were initially driven by a jump in general risk premia and later by a tightening of effective capital requirements on commercial mortgage backed securities cmbs from the dodd frank act the subsequent recovery in cre prices was induced and sustained by unusually low real treasury yields we conclude that macro prudential regulation of leverage may help limit asset price booms by preventing sharp declines in risk premia

the network of relationships between the economic environment and the entrepreneurial culture in small firms abstract in this article we maintain that the cultural evolution processes of small firms are strongly influenced by the type of relationships that they establish with the economic environment in the first part of the article the main points of the discussion are set forth here the theoretical debate is presented and the existing relations between the entrepreneurial culture and the interaction of firms with their economic environment is analyzed in the second part of the article the methodologies adopted for the statistical analysis are explained and the results of the empirical analysis are presented finally in the third part the implications for practitioners industrial policies and future directions in research are discussed the importance of openness to change in the entrepreneurial culture is a basic assumption in this study it is well known that in small and medium firms entrepreneurs often demonstrate a resistance to change that limits the firm s competitiveness in some observed territorial and industrial contexts this resistance to change is determined by a cultural entrepreneurial homogeneity this homogeneity is a result of the similarity of the social educational and entrepreneurial experiences of the subjects observed indeed the entrepreneurs studied had for generations received the same education lived in the same area and come from the same social setting this entrepreneurial culture is typified by distrust of innovation and discontinuity which leads these entrepreneurs to favor already proven solutions and initiate the behaviors of others rather than take innovative actions principal component analysis has been used to identify the influences that various factors within and external to the firm have in the forming of an entrepreneurial culture and thus on the openness of entrepreneurs and firms to learning in the sample a trade off emerged between tendencies to homologous behaviors and the spirit of initiative through cluster analysis we identified categories of entrepreneurs with a different propensity to innovation regarding established firm routines learning entrepreneurs belong mainly to industries that serve the final consumer while bounded entrepreneurs tend to specialize in commodities more often for export the implications of our results might interest new entrepreneurs who can include this element when analyzing the viability of new ventures small already operational firms can evaluate opportunities arising from export processes or might adjust their position on the production filiere to be closer to the final market this empirical analysis should be reapplied to firms in areas with different environmental characteristics or to production filieres where the relationship between customer and supplier is different as for example in high tech industries so as to verify whether the intensity of the relations with the market differs according to external factors or the technological intensity of the industries examined

why is consumption so smooth for thirty years it has been accepted that consumption is smooth because permanent income is smoother than measured income this paper considers the evidence for the contrary position that permanent income is in fact less smooth than measured income so that the smoothness of consumption cannot be straightforwardly explained by permanent income theory the paper argues that in postwar u s quarterly data consumption is smooth because it responds with a lag to changes in income

measuring and understanding behavior welfare and poverty angus deaton delivered his prize lecture on tuesday 8 december 2015 at the aula magna stockholm university these are the lecture slides this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

modelling and forecasting mortgage delinquency and foreclosure in the uk in the absence of micro data in the public domain new aggregate models for the uk s mortgage repossessions and arrears are estimated using quarterly data over 1983 2014 motivated by a conceptual double trigger frame framework for foreclosures and payment delinquencies an innovation to improve on the flawed but widespread use of loan to value measures is to estimate difficult to observe variations in loan quality and access to refinancing and shifts in lenders forbearance policy by common latent variables in a system of equations for arrears and repossessions we introduce for the first time in the literature a theory justified estimate of the proportion of mortgages in negative equity as a key driver of aggregate repossessions and arrears this is based on an average debt equity ratio corrected for regional deviations and uses a functional form for the distribution of the debt equity ratio checked on irish micro data from the bank of ireland and bank of england snapshots of negative equity we systematically address serious measurement bias in the months in arrears measures neglected in previous uk studies highly significant effects on aggregate rates of repossessions and arrears are found for the aggregate debt service ratio the proportion of mortgages in negative equity and the unemployment rate economic forecast scenarios to 2020 highlight risks faced by the uk and its mortgage lenders illustrating the usefulness of the approach for bank stress testing for macroeconomics our model traces an important part of the financial accelerator the feedback from the housing market to bad loans and hence banks ability to extend credit

household debt and spending during the financial crisis evidence from danish micro data abstract we use data for nearly 500 000 danish households to study the relationship between household leverage prior to the financial crisis of 2007 2009 and the development in spending over the course of the crisis we find a strong negative correlation between pre crisis leverage and the change in spending during the crisis this reflects that highly levered households spent a larger share of their income than their less levered peers prior to the crisis resulting in larger increases in debt in these years once we condition on the size of the pre crisis change in debt a high level of debt is no longer associated with a larger spending decline our results suggest that the larger decline in spending among high leverage households is the result of a spending normalization pattern that is also found in other years rather than a causal effect of high debt levels suppressing household spending during the crisis

unanticipated money and the political business cycle six different series of one period forecasts for money growth are generated for each year 1960 through 1984 the prediction errors are analyzed to see whet herthe authorities attempted to expand the economy in election years by unexpectedly raising money growth while there is no evidence of attempts to fool the public throughout the entire 1960 84 period such fooling may have been tried through 1974 it is speculated that the public discussion of expectations formation and of politicians motivations since then may have signaled officials that further attempts to mislead the public would be prohibitively costly copyright 1986 by ohio state university press

the assessment consumer expenditure this article aims to illuminate two sets of consumption puzzles the first concerns the behavior of aggregate saving rates in the 1980s and early 1990s collapse and rebound in scandinavia and the u k and apparently a more secular decline in the u s the second set of puzzles concerns various apparent contradictions of the rational expectations permanent income hypothesis e g in time series the excess sensitivity of consumption changes to anticipated income changes and in cross sections the tendency of consumption and income age profiles to follow each other more than standard life cycle theory implies the article discusses in relatively non technical terms the implications both for euler equations and solved out consumption functions of introducing uncertainty credit constraint consumption leisure interactions habits and durability alternative to rational expectations the illiquidity of some assets and financial deregulation it also compares the merits of euler and solved out models of aggregate consumption

policy rules inflationary bias and cyclical stability statutory policy rules such as a k percent rule for money growth can restrain officials from pursuing their own welfare at the expense of the public good toma 1982 and barro and gordon 1983 among others have presented theoretical models showing how macroeconomic policymakers who pursue their own interests can produce policies that are biased toward too much inflation strict rules are a possible remedy to this problem yet while strict policy rules may reduce inflationary bias they also limit the flexibility of officials to respond to random shocks researchers such as canzoneri 1985 have shown that this can be an important limitation if officials possess information advantages that permit policy to modify economic disturbances effectively if the public dislikes variations in real output this loss of flexible stabilization may offset any gain from a reduction in inflationary bias there is then a potential trade off between reducing inflationary bias and cyclical stability yet to date none of the dimensions of this trade off has been documented evidence of an inflationary bias has been scarce in part because it requires identification of the socially preferred inflation rate similarly the extensive research on electorate concerns with real output has focused on the income level rather than its variance moreover since this research has not been cast in a framework that permits voters to recognize the potential inflationary cost of stabilizing output the validity of these findings is open to question indeed recent work by lucas 1987 suggests that citizens would willingly pay very little to reduce cyclical fluctuations

housing wealth effects evidence from an australian panel we explore the positive relationship between house prices and household spending by following a panel of australian households no evidence for traditional housing wealth effects is found with young homeowners exhibiting the largest wealth effects young renters also exhibit a positive consumption response to house prices although less so than young homeowners this suggests that increasing house prices raise spending via easing credit constraints and a common association between house prices and a third factor results from a cohort level panel are similar to those using household level data suggesting that pseudo panels may be used as a partial substitute for actual panels

innocent bystanders monetary policy and inequality abstract we study the effects of monetary policy shocks on and their historical contribution to consumption and income inequality in the united states since 1980 as measured by the consumer expenditure survey contractionary monetary policy systematically increases inequality in labor earnings total income consumption and total expenditures furthermore monetary policy shocks account for a non trivial component of the historical cyclical variation in income and consumption inequality using detailed micro level data on income and consumption we document some of the different channels via which monetary policy shocks affect inequality as well as how these channels depend on the nature of the change in monetary policy

economic policy economic performance and elections this paper explores the role of reelection pressures in determining economic policy by assuming that voters are uncertai n as to the efficacy of different policies a reelection process is derived that depends on both a politician s past policies and the level of economic activity during his time in office it is shown th at the less uncertain are voters as to which policy is best the more likely is a politician to manipulate policy for reelection purposes manipulation entails implementing the policy that is more likely to be well received rather than the one that maximizes income copyright 1993 by american economic association

cultural influences on national rates of innovation abstract the purpose of this research was to examine the effect of the cultural values of individualism power distance uncertainty avoidance and masculinity on national rates of innovation in 33 countries in 1975 and 1980 the study found that rates of innovation are most closely associated with the cultural value of uncertainty acceptance but that lack of power distance and individualism also are related to high rates of innovation this research suggests that nations may differ in their rates of innovation because of the cultural values of their citizens these findings have important implications for managers and policy makers first culture matters countries may not be able to increase their rates of innovation simply by increasing the amount of money spent on research and development or industrial infrastructure they also may need to change the values of their citizens to those that encourage innovative activity this concept in turn suggests that national rates of innovation are driven by more fundamental forces than economic conditions and that societal change may be necessary to make less innovative societies more innovative second the values associated with high national rates of innovation are those that many scholars have long argued are important at the firm level an acceptance of uncertainty appears to be necessary probably because innovation requires a tolerance for risk and change individualism seems to be important perhaps because of its association with autonomy independence and freedom lack of power distance appears important perhaps reflecting the role that tolerance of change in the social order and distribution of power play in the innovation process third the study indicates that the strength of the relationship between innovation and two cultural values individualism and lack of power distance were stronger in 1975 than in 1980 suggesting perhaps that these values are becoming less important in spurring the innovation process this finding supports the anecdotal evidence that many collectivist and hierarchical asian nations are becoming more innovative fourth this study shows that per capita income is a more important economic variable than industrial structure in determining national rates of innovation this finding confirms previous work that has shown that as nations become wealthier they become more innovative the reason may be that wealthier countries have more demand for innovations both because innovations are often laborsaving and because wealthier nations have greater demand for new and differentiated consumer goods

how mortgage finance reform could affect housing abstract although major changes in mortgage finance have occurred since the subprime bust several issues remain unresolved centering on the roles of fannie mae freddie mac and the fha we analy

imperfect capital markets and the monetarist black box liquidity constraints inflation and the asymmetric effects of interest rate policy in this paper we examine the effects of unanticipated changes in interest rates on consumers expenditure in a model in which capital markets are imperfect we show that where constraints exist on the amounts individuals can borrow individuals may rationally choose to borrow up to the limits of such constraints over part of their lifetimes such liquidity constrained individuals in general have a higher marginal propensity to consume out of changes in current income than is the case with liquidity unconstrained individuals changes in interest rates which have the effect of redistributing income between liquidity constrained monetary debtors and liquidity unconstrained creditors will thus have a net effect on aggregate consumption we further show that this effect operates asymmetrically in the sense that an increase in interest rates will have a larger net impact than a fall formally we examine the impact of a change in the interest rate which we assume exogenous on the behaviour of an individual consumer the analysis is thus independent of the source of the interest rate shock 2 but we believe an important application of the model concerns the transmission mechanism through which monetary policy operates in this paper we do not consider the relationship between the supply of money and interest rates but simnply follow standard economic theory in assuming that monetary policy operates through the impact of interest rates on expenditure it is the mechanism linking interest rate changes to expenditure that has proved hard to identify and it is in this respect that our analysis may be relevant in suggesting a process through which interest rates can affect expenditure which appears to have been neglected hitherto the model provides a possible channel of transmission of monetary policy different from those usually considered 3 in so doing the model may offer some insight into the transmission processes within the monetarist black box and indeed suggests that the efficacy of monetary policy may in part depend on the existence of capital market imperfections

consumption and portfolio choice under internal multiplicative habit formation this paper explores the optimal consumption and investment behavior of an individual who derives utility from the ratio between his consumption and an endogenous habit we obtain closed form policies under general utility functionals and stochastic investment opportunities by developing a nontrivial linearization to the budget constraint this enables us to explicitly characterize how habit formation affects the marginal propensity to consume and optimal stock bond investments we also show that in a setting that combines habit formation with epstein zin utility consumption no longer grows at unrealistically high rates at high ages and investments in risky assets decrease

precautionary saving an explanation for excess sensitivity of consumption the permanent income hypothesis under certainty equivalence yields a martingale consumption process empirically this hypothesis is rejected because consumption is excessively sensitive to anticipated income one approach to account for excess sensitivity is to relax certainty equivalence by using utility functions that induce precautionary saving this article analyzes a hyperbolic absolute risk aversion utility function empirically some reasonable parameterizations of this specification allow one to match the excess sensitivity associated with the data these parameterizations also permit one to account for the excess smoothness problem excess sensitivity and excess smoothness however do not reflect the same phenomenon

house prices and consumer spending recent empirical work shows large consumption responses to house price movements this is at odds with a prominent theoretical view which using the logic of the permanent income hypothesis argues that consumption responses should be small we show that in contrast to this view workhorse models of consumption with incomplete markets calibrated to rich cross sectional micro facts actually predict large consumption responses in line with the data to explain this result we show that consumption responses to permanent house price shocks can be approximated by a simple and robust rule of thumb formula the marginal propensity to consume out of temporary income times the value of housing in our model consumption responses depend on a number of factors such as the level and distribution of debt the size and history of house price shocks and the level of credit supply each of these effects is naturally explained with our simple formula

presidential influence on the federal reserve in the 1970 s this research examined presidential influence on federal reserve monetary policy in the 1970s a reaction function for the change in the federal funds rate was estimated and then checked to determine whether that reaction function shifted at politically important points the two political influences studied were elections and administration the federal reserve did not appear to manipulate the money supply in 1972 to aid president nixon s reelection the reaction function shifted between the nixon and ford administrations it did not shift with the ascension of carter and it did not shift with the replacement of chairman arthur burns by chairman william miller

does anticipated monetary policy matter an econometric investigation a heated debate has arisen over the policy ineffectiveness proposition associate with the work of lucas sargent and wallace it postulates that anticipated aggregate demand policy will have no effect on business cycle fluctuations so that one deterministic feedback policy rule is as good as any other from the point of view of stabilizing the economy this paper develops a methodology for empirically analyzing rational expectations models displaying this neutrality result and then applies it to the important question of whether anticipated monetary policy matters to the business cycle

entrepreneurship and local economic resilience the impact of institutional hysteresis in peripheral places this article examines how the legacies of the past in peripheral post industrial places serve to shape current and future entrepreneurial activity and with it local economic resilience drawing on in depth qualitative interviews with key regional stakeholders the article reveals how peripheral post industrial places are constrained by their histories this is found to be manifest in different ways such as low aspirations generational unemployment and a loss of identity which are in turn compounded by negative perceptions of place and opportunity these issues culminate in institutional hysteresis at the local level and constrain entrepreneurial ambition the article argues that the rigidity and reproduction of informal institutions continues to stymie economic resilience and growth we conclude by reflecting on the implications for entrepreneurship in peripheral post industrial places as well as with recommendations for policy

housing wealth and consumption a micro panel study there is strong evidence that house prices and consumption are synchronised there is however disagreement over the causes of this link this study examines if there is a wealth effect of house prices on consumption using a household level panel data set with information about house ownership income wealth and demographics for a large sample of the danish population in the period 1987 96 we model the dependence of the growth rate of total household expenditure with unanticipated innovations to house prices controlling for factors related to competing explanations we find little evidence of a housing wealth effect

interest rate pass through mortgage rates household consumption and voluntary deleveraging abstract exploiting variation in the timing of resets of adjustable rate mortgages arms we find that a sizable decline in mortgage payments up to 50 percent induces a significant increase in c

blanchard s model of consumption an empirical study this article derives several empirically testable implications for blanchard s consumption model which has been widely used in analytical macroeconomic research cointegration methods are applied the parameter that measures the life horizon of households is estimated and the consumption model is tested quarterly canadian data are used there is no empirical evidence against the assumption that households behave as if they live forever within blanchard s framework blanchard s model of consumption is strongly rejected by the data however

homeownership and the american dream for decades it was taken as a given that an increased homeownership rate was a desirable goal but after the financial crises and great recession in which roughly eight million homes were foreclosed on and about 7 trillion in home equity was erased economists and policymakers are re evaluating the role of homeownership in the american dream many question whether the american dream should really include homeownership or instead focus more on other aspects of upward mobility and most acknowledge that homeownership is not for everyone we take a detailed look at us homeownership from three different perspectives 1 an international perspective comparing us homeownership rates with those of other nations 2 a demographic perspective examining the correlation between changes in the us homeownership rate between 1985 and 2015 and factors like age race ethnicity education family status and income 3 and a financial benefits perspective using national data since 2002 to calculate the internal rate of return to homeownership compared to alternative investments our overall conclusion homeownership is a valuable institution while two decades of policies in the 1990s and early 2000s may have put too much faith in the benefits of homeownership the pendulum seems to have swung too far the other way and many now may have too little faith in homeownership as part of the american dream

international evidence on the persistence of economic fluctuations abstract this paper presents new evidence on the persistence of fluctuations in real gnp we estimate two measures of persistence nonparametrically using post war quarterly data from canada france germany italy japan the united kingdom and the united states we compare these estimates with monte carlo results from various ar 2 processes for six out of seven countries the point estimates indicate that a 1 shock to output should change the long run unvariate forecast of output by well over 1 low order arma models yield similar conclusions finally we examine the persistence in relative outputs of different countries

political accountability for price stability and unemployment in a multi party system with coalition governments a model of party popularity for multi party systems is presented and applied to the netherlands main conclusions are first inflation and unemployment and their interaction affect the popularity of parties second it is important to take into account that voters may reckon with a trade off between these variables third it is wrong to handle a coalition government as a homogeneous entity

risk sharing and industrial specialization regional and international evidence the authors provide empirical evidence that risk sharing enhances specialization in production to the best of their knowledge this well established and important theoretical proposition has not been tested before the empirical procedure is summarized as follows first the authors construct a measure of specialization in production and calculate an index of specialization for each of the european community ec and non ec oecd countries u s states canadian provinces japanese prefectures latin american countries and regions of italy spain and the united kingdom then they estimate the degree of capital market integration a measure of risk sharing within each of these groups of regions the ec countries the non ec oecd countries the united states canada japan italy spain and the united kingdom and rely on another author s estimate for latin america finally they perform a regression of the specialization index on the degree of risk sharing controlling for relevant economic variables they find a positive and significant relation between the degree of specialization of individual members of a group of countries provinces states or prefectures and the amount of risk that is shared within the group the authors perform regressions using variables such as shareholder rights and the size of the financial sector relative to gdp as instruments for the amount of inter regional risk sharing these regressions confirm that risk sharing facilitated by a favorable legal environment and a developed financial system is a direct causal determinant of industrial specialization this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

home is where the equity is mortgage refinancing and household consumption applying a permanent income model with exogenous liquidity constraints and mortgage behavior household refinancing when mortgage interest rates are historically high and rising a persistent empirical puzzle is explained using data from the panel study of income dynamics households experiencing an unemployment shock and having limited initial liquid assets to draw upon are shown to have been 25 more likely to refinance 1991 94 on average such liquidity constrained households converted over two thirds of every dollar of equity they removed into current consumption as mortgage rates plummeted 1991 94 producing an estimated expenditure stimulus of at least 28 billion

the public s indifference map between inflation and unemployment empirical evidence for the nixon ford carter and reagan presidencies we have succesfully estimated the public s indifference map between inflation and unemployment the indifference curves are nonlinear and concave to the origin for most unemployment rates the data are insufficient to permit us to be sure of the form at low unemployment rates there is clear evidence of honeymoon and watergate effects and a reagan as president effect the public dislikes expected and unexpected inflation equally