the litigious plaintiff hypothesis case selection and resolution the process through which cases are selected for litigation cannot be ignored because it yields a set of lawsuits and plaintiffs that is far from a random selection either of potential claims or of potential claimants we present a theoretical framework for understanding the operation of this suit selection process and its relationship to the underlying distribution of potential claims and claimants the model has implications for the trial rate and the plaintiff win rate at trial our empirical analysis using data on over 200 000 federal civil litigations yields results that are strongly consistent with the theory

truth effort and the legal battle in lawsuits relative success depends upon two main factors the true degree of fault and the efforts invested on eachside a proposed litigation success function displays thisdependence while satisfying other essential properties undertwo different protocols nash cournot and stackelberg solutions are obtained for the litigation efforts proportionate success and values of the lawsuit on each side outcomes are evaluated in terms of two normative criteria i achieving justice interpreted as equality between defendantfault and relative plaintiff success and ii minimizingaggregate litigation cost achievement of these aims isdetermined by the decisiveness of litigation effort relativeto true fault

how reasonable are oil production scenarios from public agencies according to the long term scenarios of the international energy agency iea and the u s energy information administration eia conventional oil production is expected to grow until at least 20

imperfect patent protection and innovation the paper studies the effect of strengthening protection on r d incentives in the context of process innovation it shows that for non drastic innovations that do not render the pre existing technology obsolete the innovator might favor imitation if the expected royalty rate determined by the court is sufficiently high since imitation is discouraged for very high levels of patent protection r d investment is maximized for an intermediate level of patent strength this finding provides a theoretical explanation for emerging empirical evidence questioning the effectiveness of strengthening protection on innovation incentives it also serves as a justification for the imperfections of the existing patent system that allows for some infringement

efficient rents 2 free entry and efficient rent seeking in the competition for a monopoly right in which the number of bidders is fixed tullock and others have found the value of the resources spent in the aggregate to capture the transfer to be sometimes less than and sometimes greater than the value of the monopoly we think this approach to be incomplete since it leaves unanswered the question of what determines the number of individuals who will vie for the right to be the monopolist it is unsatisfactory to imagine for example that the franchisor sets the number of contestants one could then foresee that rent seeking would arise to influence the permissible number of bidders and this merely moves the rent seeking dissipation question one step back

geo economic approach to energy security measurement principal component analysis abstract currently there is no single accepted methodology for measuring energy security while the prevailing scientific attitude is that energy security should be defined and quantified in a way to be able to follow rapid developments on the global economic and geopolitical scene considering the fact that the national economies represent an integral part of a dynamic international economy where external shocks global financial and economic crisis political conflicts war etc have the impact on energy prices and energy security in general the paper proposes a new geo economic concept of energy security the new approach differs from the existing ones as regards the fact that in addition to basic indicators it takes into account sovereign credit rating as a measure of economic financial and political stability as one of the decisive factors which determines global energy trade and the ability of national economies to be stable and secure when it comes to energy determination and testing of geo economic index of energy security was conducted by using the principal component analysis in the european union and in the selected countries of the world over a period of ten years 2004 2013 the measured values of a newly proposed geo economic index of energy security demonstrate significant deviations from the data obtained by using usual indicators of energy security observed individually gdp per capita has the greatest impact on the change in final value of geo economic index of energy security while the impact of sovereign credit rating is slightly less the study has shown that the least impact on energy security is exerted by energy dependence which is traditionally used as a proxy indicator of energy security and production of energy from renewable sources which is defined by the eu policy as one of the methods for the improvement of energy security due to the results obtained it is necessary to conduct further analysis of sovereign credit rating and to review the type and significance of the impact of energy dependence indicator as a measure of energy security in general

oil supply risk and affecting parameters associated with oil supplementation and disruption abstract the fossil fuel energy carriers significantly affect the energy security the oil security has turned to one of the main political agenda by considering the two world s oil crises in this study an index of oil supply vulnerability has been developed to compare the world s top fifteen oil importing south asian countries the index includes comprehensive set of indicators like imported oil over gdp ratio market liquidity gdp per capita geopolitical risk diversification the ratio of oil importation over consumption transportation risk oil price volatility and us volatility two popular techniques composite indicator ci and the principal component analysis pca were used to combine all the aforesaid indicators although numerous techniques have been used to assess the oil vulnerability index for example dea like models and markowitz theory of portfolio none of them incorporated the principal component analysis and composite indicator together to develop an oil vulnerability index results shows that the south asian countries have highest economic supply and overall oil vulnerability risk whereas the second group countries belgium thailand spain netherlands japan korea india and china are in a relatively less risky as compared to south asian countries contrary to this third group of countries are canada singapore uk and france italy germany and us are considered as a least vulnerable country

oil vulnerability index of oil importing countries abstract this paper assesses the relative oil vulnerability of 26 net oil importing countries for the year 2004 on the basis of various indicators the ratio of value of oil imports to gross domestic product gdp oil consumption per unit of gdp gdp per capita and oil share in total energy supply ratio of domestic reserves to oil consumption exposure to geopolitical oil market concentration risks as measured by net oil import dependence diversification of supply sources political risk in oil supplying countries and market liquidity the approach using the principal component technique has been adopted to combine these individual indicators into a composite index of oil vulnerability such an index captures the relative sensitivity of various economies towards developments of the international oil market with a higher index indicating higher vulnerability the results show that there are considerable differences in the values of individual indicators of oil vulnerability and overall oil vulnerability index among the countries both inter and intraregional

a comparison of oil supply risks in eu us japan china and india under different climate scenarios for many countries the inflow of energy is essential to keep economies running oil is typically considered to be the most critical fuel as an input for the petro chemical and transportation sector and due to limited and less spread reserves in this study external oil supply risks are assessed for the period up to 2035 for the european union united states china japan and india being the five largest importers of oil in the world based on their current supplier portfolio scenarios are constructed for several climate policy and oil supply projections it is found that risks increase strongly when stringent climate policies are prevented from being implemented especially when a peak in oil supply is taken into account resulting in major oil supply disruptions china faces the lowest oil supply risks in most scenarios but the trends of india china and us converge over time due to increasing import dependency of china and india japan faces high risks since the country has the highest oil import dependency combined with a low oil import diversification for the eu all figures are strongly influenced by russia accounting for 32 of total imports and to a lesser extent norway 11 with high overall risks

quantifying the supplier portfolio diversity of embodied energy strategic implications for strengthening energy resilience this paper investigates energy resilience of countries by quantifying the supplier diversification of both direct and embodied energy import in particular we quantify two approaches to diversify a country s supplier portfolio by lowering the dependency on each supplier portfolio diversification and by having embodied energy suppliers that are different from its direct energy suppliers portfolio differentiation we examine possibilities for strategic utilization of embodied energy trade to compensate for low diversity of direct energy trade for three types of fossil resources coal oil and gas we find that the diversity of embodied energy import is much greater than that of direct energy import of the three energy resources coal enables countries to adopt portfolio diversification and portfolio differentiation more than gas and oil our results suggest embodied energy can be considered as a transfer of energy resources across national borders that can directly benefit from the diversity of the world energy production by skipping the limited diversity of the world energy export

free entry and efficient rent seeking this paper concerns rent seeking and the extent to which rents are dissipated under various circumstances gordon tullock s 1967 insight that expenditures made to capture an artificially created transfer represent a social waste suggested that the cost to the economy of monopoly and regulation is greater than the simple harberger 1954 deadweight loss indeed under tullock s original formulation and in the extensions of his work by krueger 1974 and posner 1975 rents are exactly dissipated at the social level 1 is spent to capture 1 so that the total welfare loss from such activities is equal to the harberger triangle plus the rectangle of monopoly profits

energy security analysis the case of constrained oil supply for ireland abstract ireland imports 88 of its energy requirements oil makes up 59 of total final energy consumption tfc import dependency low fuel diversity and volatile prices leave ireland vulnerable in terms of energy security this work models energy security scenarios for ireland using long term macroeconomic forecasts to 2050 with oil production and price scenarios from the international monetary fund within the irish times energy systems model the analysis focuses on developing a least cost optimum energy system for ireland under scenarios of constrained oil supply 0 8 annual import growth and 2 annual import decline and subsequent sustained long term price shocks to oil and gas imports the results point to gas becoming the dominant fuel source for ireland at 54 total final energy consumption in 2020 supplanting oil from reference projections of 57 to 10 8 tfc in 2012 the cost of net oil imports stood at 3 6 billion 2 26 gdp the modelled high oil and gas price scenarios show an additional annual cost in comparison to a reference of between 2 9bn and 7 5bn by 2020 1 9 4 9 of gdp to choose to develop a least cost energy system investment and ramifications for energy security are discussed

deterrence in contests this paper explores the role of deterrence in contests as a general rule we show that for a deterrence strategy to be played by rational agents it is necessary that the contest be destructive we show for a very general class of functions that pure strategy deterrence equilibria where contestants deter one another do not exist a corollary of this finding is that under fairly general conditions agents should always be expected to engage in contests applied to international relations our results imply that war is always a potential outcome despite deterrence attempts

sustainability assessment of electricity generation technologies using weighted multi criteria decision analysis abstract solving the issue of environmental degradation due to the expansion of the world s energy demand requires a balanced approach the aim of this paper is to comprehensively rank a large number of electricity generation technologies based on their compatibility with the sustainable development of the industry the study is based on a set of 10 sustainability indicators which provide a life cycle analysis of the plants the technologies are ranked using a weighted sum multi attribute utility method the indicator weights were established through a survey of 62 academics from the fields of energy and environmental science our results show that large hydroelectric projects are the most sustainable technology type followed by small hydro onshore wind and solar photovoltaic we argue that political leaders should have a more structured and strategic approach in implementing sustainable energy policies and this type of research can provide arguments to support such decisions

transfer seeking and avoidance on the full social costs of rent seeking we would like to thank gordon tullock and an anonymous referee of this journal for their helpful comments and suggestions this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

contests with multi tasking the standard contest model in which participants compete in a single dimension is well understood and documented multi dimension extensions are possible but are liable to increase the complexity of the contest structure mitigating one of its main advantages simplicity in this paper we propose an extension in which competition ensues in several dimensions and a competitor that wins a certain number of these is awarded a prize the amount of information needed to run the contest is hence limited to the number of dimensions won by each player we look at the design of this contest from the point of view of maximising effort in the contest per dimension and totally and show that there will be a tendency to run small contests with few dimensions the standard tullock model and its results are encompassed by our framework

global oil gas depletion an overview abstract the world s production of conventional hydrocarbons will soon decline hydrocarbon shortages are inevitable unless radical changes occur in demand or in the supply of non conventional hydrocarbons the details are as follows global conventional oil supply is currently at political risk this is because the sum of conventional oil production from all countries in the world except the five main middle east suppliers is near the maximum set by physical resource limits should middle east suppliers decide to substantially curtail supply the shortfall cannot be replaced by conventional oil from other sources world conventional oil supply will soon be at physical risk the middle east countries have only little spare operational capacity and this will be increasingly called upon as oil production declines elsewhere large investments in middle east production if they occur could raise output but only to a limited extent a partial exception is iraq but even here there would be significant delays before prospects are confirmed and infrastructure is in place if demand is maintained and if large investments in middle east capacity are not made the world will face the prospect of oil shortages in the near term even with large investments resource limits will force middle east production to decline fairly soon and hence also global conventional oil production the date of this resource limited global peak depends on the size of middle east reserves which are poorly known and unreliably reported best estimates put the physical peak of global conventional oil production between 5 and 10 years from now the world contains large quantities of non conventional oil and various oil substitutes but the rapidity of the decline in the production of conventional oil makes it probable that these non conventional sources cannot come on stream fast enough to fully compensate the result will be a sustained global oil shortage for conventional gas the world s original endowment is probably about the same in energy terms as its endowment of conventional oil since less gas has been used so far compared to oil the world will turn increasingly to gas as oil declines but the global peak in conventional gas production is already in sight in perhaps 20 years and hence the global peak of all hydrocarbons oil plus gas is likely to be in about 10 or so years

analysis of oil export dependency of mena countries drivers trends and prospects abstract the purpose of this paper is to analyse how oil export dependencies of middle east and north african mena oil producers have evolved over the past two decades and to identify the main driving factors from an energy policy perspective the paper expresses the oil export dependency of each economy in terms of a multiplicative identity that captures effective export price export to primary oil supply ratio oil dependency and oil export intensity of the country using the data for 1980 2006 the evolution in these factors is investigated for seven mena countries and the influence of the above factors is decomposed using the laspeyres index the analysis shows that energy price and increasing energy intensity in the mena countries have influenced the overall oil export dependency reducing the energy intensity can improve oil export revenue share to gdp by 5 10 in most of the countries while iran can gain significantly by increasing its export volume

a framework to evaluate security of supply in the electricity sector security of electricity supply soes has become a major concern for regulators and policymakers over the last decade however most work focusses either more generally on energy security or on a single fuel we develop a comprehensive but flexible framework to assess the soes for a single jurisdiction taking into the account the specificities of electricity this framework has two aims i provide a snapshot of the situation to understand current weaknesses and determine what actions are required ii capture the evolution over time to evaluate progress and identify potential problems before they materialise the framework based on an extensive literature review consists of twelve dimensions that are critical for soes we develop metrics that capture the state and evolution of each dimension this framework is intended to be a management information tool for all stakeholders aimed at organising data and structuring its analysis to enable monitoring the evolution of the soes while also functioning as an early warning system by flagging potential future problems

legal expenditure as a rent seeking game legal expenditures at a civil trial constitute an interesting type of rent seeking contest in civil litigation there is a natural interaction between the objective merits of the case and the outcome of the contest institutions such as fee shifting do not generally have a counterpart in other rent seeking contests the endogenous decision to participate in the rent seeking contest corresponds to the decision by the plaintiff to bring a case and the decision by the defendant to defend it the desirability of fee shifting is very sensitive to the value of the parameter which describes the legal technology

energy supply security and geopolitics a european perspective the security of energy supply to the eu is examined in the context of two storylines markets and institutions exemplifies an economically and politically integrated multilateral world with effective institutions and markets regions and empires involves a world broken up in rival political and economic blocks competing for resources and markets via political economic and military power it is shown that these storylines have a significant impact on the development of the energy market on the way in which energy supply may be secured and on the effect and applicability of the several types of instruments available the current eu is geared towards enlargement and a deepening of economic integration based on the tenets of the post 1945 multilateral world system the present world tends towards regions and empires and suggests that the eu may have to reorient its energy security policy energy policy must become an integral part of eu external trade and foreign relations and security policy the eu should develop its own strategy actively investing in dialogues with producer countries in the persian gulf and africa and with russia sustainable prosperity and governance in these regions will support eu energy security

energy security and improvements in the function of diversity indices taiwan energy supply structure case study abstract facing the risk and uncertainty inherent in social and economic development many countries have adopted an energy supply diversification strategy in their energy security policy to control the energy import risk and cost to ensure that sufficient energy can be obtained at an affordable price level diversification helps the energy system respond to external changes and shocks diversification can also lessen the vulnerability of a single energy source to supply shocks and the market power of various energy supply sources this study develops the diversity reliability index and co vary diversity reliability index based on the hirschman herfindahl and shannon wiener indices investigates the contribution of different energy sources to the energy system and analyzes the covariance between various energies and their impacts on energy security to determine the impact of energy diversity in reducing the risk of energy supply shortages and cost fluctuations

a quantitative analysis of low carbon society lcs measures in thai industrial sector abstract energy is a commodity which impacts heavily upon the competitiveness of a country in the global scale thus nations have begun to understand that utilization of energy affects its economic performance in recent times there has been a drive for global awareness on low carbon society lcs measures where carbon mitigation is at the forefront thus this paper analyses the lcs measures for the thai industrial sector thai industrial sector is the second highest co 2 emitting end use sector and contributes approximately 30 to the national income of thailand the total co 2 emission from end use sectors in 2010 was 119 mton co 2 and approximately 38 constituted industrial sector emissions the primary objective of this research study is to quantitatively analyse the carbon mitigation possible in the thai industrial sector and the co benefits which accrue along with mitigation in various policy pathway scenarios thai industrial sector was modeled using asia pacific integrated model aim enduse three groups of scenarios under lcs emission tax and reduction target principles were modeled along with the bau case results show that lcs scenarios are capable of cumulative mitigation of approximately 35 by 2050 in comparison to the bau case and the predominant technologies are the 2nd generation biomass and the ccs technology the emission tax scenarios where tax rates of 50 100 200 and 500 usd t co 2 were enforced show a maximum of 55 cumulative mitigation by 2050 even though this reduction is higher than the lcs scenarios there is no shift to long term renewable or sustainable technologies in the emission tax scenarios the same applies to reduction target scenarios as well the co benefits which were measured along the themes of energy security and local air pollutant mitigation show maximum benefits accruing to the lcs scenarios where renewable fuel share increases whilst primary energy intensity and carbon intensity decreases the lcs scenarios also show a mitigation of local air pollutants such as so 2 and particulate matter

an entry and exit model on the energy saving investment strategy with real options this paper presents an improved decision model based on the real options approach presented by ansar and sparks 2009 for the firms that have not yet established energy saving equipment under the entry and exit strategies furthermore the proposed model takes account of the inevitable equipment renewal and the occurrence of unexpected events under the poisson jump process the timing for terminating an investment when continuous operations of that business are unprofitable is also explored to realize the optimal timing of implementing the energy saving strategy the future discounted benefit b follows the geometric brownian motion with the poisson jump process and the replacement of investment equipment a numerical analysis is followed by a sensitivity study of various parameters to better realize their impacts on the entry and exit thresholds the results show that for the jump case the higher probability of occurrence of unfavorable events will result in a higher entry threshold and lower exit threshold investors are forced to request higher benefit thresholds to cover the higher probability of losses brought by unfavorable events

the dynamics of pretrial negotiation it is shown that many cases proceed to court despite ample opportunity for interaction and much of the settlement takes place on the courthouse steps the deadline effect when fixed costs of bargaining are introduced a u shaped pattern of settlement appears with a greater chance of settlement at the beginning and at the end of negotiations than in the middle these characteristics persist even as the time between offers approaches zero the theoretical predictions are consistent with the stylized facts a large proportion of the lawsuits that are settled out of court are settled very close to the trial date or in the first several days of the trial 3 although the deadline effect appears in many other settings as well it has little theoretical support 4

what s yours is mine rent seeking and the common law the paper develops a rent seeking theory of the common law the general finding is that the law s form depends on thecomparative advantage each group has in production versusappropriation generally and appropriation via litigation inparticular the model generates new interpretations ofdevelopments in united states common law and is used both tosupplement and to criticize two dominant theories of such law the efficiency theory associated with the law and economicsmovement and that generated by critical legal studiesscholars

on the evolution of prize perceptions in contests abstract we apply an indirect evolutionary approach to players perceived prize valuations in contests evolution in finite populations leads to preferences that overstate the prize s material value and induce overexpenditure we establish an equivalence between evolutionarily stable strategies and the behavior induced by evolutionarily stable preferences

london and beyond taking a closer look at urban energy policy this paper considers the field of urban energy policy a neglected yet important topic cities account for approximately two thirds of global primary energy consumption creating significant benefits and costs as a result there has been growing interest in the contribution of cities to global energy policy issues such as climate change but a number of significant questions remain e g how do energy policy processes differ between national and urban scales and how can cities contribute most effectively to global policy goals we present the results of interviews with key stakeholders in london to illustrate some unique features of the urban energy policy cycle we then take a wider view proposing a research agenda with three key goals describing the global variety of urban energy consumption and policy understanding the resulting diversity in responsibility vulnerability and capacity and developing shared procedures and solutions tackling these questions is vital if cities are to contribute fully to current energy policy efforts

global oil depletion a review of the evidence within the polarised and contentious debate over future oil supply a growing number of commentators are forecasting a near term peak and subsequent decline in production but although liquid fuels form the foundation of modern industrial economies the growing debate on peak oil has relatively little influence on energy and climate policy with this in mind the uk energy research centre ukerc has conducted an independent thorough and systematic review of the evidence with the aim of establishing the current state of knowledge identifying key uncertainties and improving consensus the study focuses upon the physical depletion of conventional oil in the period to 2030 and includes an in depth literature review analysis of industry databases and a detailed comparison of global supply forecasts this communication summarises the main findings of the ukerc study a key conclusion is that a peak of conventional oil production before 2030 appears likely and there is a significant risk of a peak before 2020

efficient rent seeking under varying cost structures the rent seeking paradigm which was introduced by tullock 1967 has proven useful for exploring a variety of economic decisions that lie outside the traditional profit maximizing framework early applications of tullock s insight becker 1968 krueger 1974 posner 1975 demsetz 1976 foster 1981 and others usually assumed the entire value of the rent would be dissipated by competition following the fashion of economic profits in competitive markets in 1980 tullock structured a simple game reflecting the decisions made in rent seeking the results generated by his model suggest residual rents may accrue to rent seekers and under certain conditions resist dissipation a number of studies followed tullock s 1980 paper corcoran 1984 corcoran and karels 1985 higgins shugart and tollison 1985 tullock 1984 1985 and 1987 which explore the dissipation of excess rents under various assumptions

conflict and rent seeking success functions ratio vs difference models of relative success the rent seeking competitions studied by economists fall within a much broader category of conflict interactions that also includes military combats election campaigns industrial disputes lawsuits and sibling rivalries in the rent seeking literature each party s success pi which can be interpreted either as the probability of victory or as the proportion of the prize won has usually been taken to be a function of the ratio of the respective resource commitments alternatively however pi may instead be a function of the difference between the parties commitments to the contest the contest success function csf for the difference from is a logistic curve in which as is consistent with military experience increasing returns apply up to an inflection point at equal resource commitments a crucial flaw of the traditional ratio model is that neither onesided submission nor two sided peace between the parties can ever occur as a cournot equilibrium in contrast both of these outcomes are entirely consistent with a model in which success is a function of the difference between the parties resource commitments

gas generation and wind power a review of unlikely allies in the united kingdom and ireland no single solution currently exists to achieve the utopian desire of zero fossil fuel electricity generation until such time it is evident that the energy mix will contain a large variation in stochastic and intermittent sources of renewable energy such as wind power the increasing prominence of wind power in pursuit of legally binding european energy targets enables policy makers and conventional generating companies to plan for the unique challenges such a natural resource presents this drive for wind has been highly beneficial in terms of security of energy supply and reducing greenhouse gas emissions however it has created an unusual ally in natural gas this paper outlines the suitability and challenges faced by gas generating units in their utilisation as key assets for renewable energy integration and the transition to a low carbon future the single electricity market of the republic of ireland and northern ireland and the british electricity transmission trading agreement market are the backdrop to this analysis both of these energy markets have a reliance on gas generation matching the proliferation of wind power the unlikely and mostly ignored relationship between natural gas generation and wind power due to policy decisions and market forces is the necessity of gas to act as a bridging fuel this review finds gas generation to be crucially important to the continued growth of renewable energy additionally it is suggested that power market design should adequately reward the flexibility required to securely operate a power system with high penetrations of renewable energy which in most cases is provided by gas generation

quest for middle east oil the us versus the asia pacific region abstract two very powerful geopolitical factors will decisively determine whether the quest for middle east oil mainly gulf oil could enhance the global oil security or could lead to oil supply disruptions and also instability and conflict in the asia pacific region the two factors are the united states growing dependence on oil imports from the middle east and the asia pacific region s thirst for oil and the increasingly likely chinese dependence on oil from the region the asia pacific countries are increasingly growing concerned about their ability to supply enough oil to fuel future economic growth the region s phenomenal economic growth up to july 1997 and its economic recovery since then and its steadily rising energy needs lend urgency to the question of how the region would meet its considerable energy challenges this paper will endeavour to analyze the impact of this growing dependence on middle east oil on global oil supplies the price of oil and global oil security it will argue that such dependence on a volatile region like the middle east and the perception of scarcer energy resources in the asia pacific region have the potential to lead to conflict in both regions unless these issues are dealt with in geoeconomic rather than geostrategic terms the paper will strongly express the view that potential conflicts can be resolved not by force but through markets and investment and also through the diversification of energy sources and the promotion of alternative energy development and use across the region

future oil supply the changing stance of the international energy agency the iea was established in 1974 with a mandate to promote energy security amongst its members namely the states of the oecd and to advise those members on sound energy policy its recent forecasts of the medium and long term prospects for oil supply however have wavered alternating from optimistic to pessimistic and back again for policy makers such inconsistency is difficult to deal with firstly we examine whether the changing outlooks seen in iea forecasts made between 2007 and 2010 truly reflect a demonstrable underlying change in the known facts and we can find no such factual changes reported by the iea secondly we examine whether the serious criticisms of the iea s 2008 forecast made by other analysts have yet been addressed and we conclude that they have not thirdly we consider the possible effects of the current economic downturn upon the iea s assumptions and upon future oil supply we conclude that all the forecasts made by the iea appear to be too optimistic throughout this period

conceptual proposals for measuring the impact of international regimes on energy security abstract the paper proposes two concepts to assess the effect of international regimes on energy security existing indicators focus mainly on state level factors excluding international influences international relation scholars on the other hand see a clear connection between international regimes and stable energy relations international regimes stabilise energy relations by providing frameworks for negotiations defining controlling and sanctioning compliance and allowing the actors to engage in package deals the researcher needs to include these factors in a complete assessment of political energy security risks as first step the paper uses the effectiveness of control mechanisms as basis for such consideration it refers specifically to international arbitration as the most important control mechanism in international energy relations the simplest measurement option is the share of a county s energy imports covered by a certain regime the paper applies the oslo potsdam solution to account for outcome effectiveness it applies a variant of the international regimes data base protocol to account for effective regime structures in a last section the paper proposes some possible paths for future research

conflict settlement and the shadow of the future abstract we examine a conflictual setting in which adversaries cannot contract on an enforcement variable arms and where the future strategic positions of adversaries are very different when there is open conflict than when there is settlement we show that as the future becomes more important in this setting open conflict becomes more likely than settlement we demonstrate the theoretical robustness of this finding and test it in a laboratory experiment as predicted we find that subjects are more likely to engage in destructive conflict as the future becomes more important

long run equilibrium and total expenditures in rent seeking a comment although corcoran is mathematically correct i believe his comment is not very helpful in order to discuss the matter in some detail the reader should consult table 7 1 from my original efficient rent seeking reproduced on page 92 1 this shows the equilibrium investment of each individual different numbers of individuals playing the game n and differing values of r table 7 2 also reproduced on page 93 shows the total investment

a general analysis of rent seeking games in this paper we reconsider the basic model of efficient rent seeking we stress the importance of the shape of the players reaction curve in order to understand the impact of the technology of rent seeking on the structure of the outcome of the game we give a complete characterization of the pure strategy equilibria moreover the possibility of preemption by a stakelberg leader is discussed according to the nature of the technology of rent seeking available to the agents

efficient rents 1 rent seeking behavior in the long run we have analyzed long run behavior in rent seeking under several conditions and behavioral hypotheses the question of interest is whether or not the long run expenditures will exactly equal the value of the rents our results depend on the type of competitive response which is assumed to exist in the long run and on the r value governing the probability of winning

a generalized tullock contest we construct a generalized tullock contest under complete information where contingent upon winning or losing the payoff of a player is a linear function of prizes own effort and the effort of the rival this structure nests a number of existing contests in the literature and can be used to analyze new types of contests we characterize the unique symmetric equilibrium and show that small parameter modifications may lead to substantially different types of contests and hence different equilibrium effort levels

economic impact of electricity market price forecasting errors a demand side analysis several techniques have been proposed in the literature to forecast electricity market prices and improve forecast accuracy however no studies have been reported examining the economic impact of price forecast inaccuracies on forecast users therefore in this paper the application of electricity market price forecasts to short term operation scheduling of two typical and inherently different industrial loads is examined and the associated economic impact is analyzed using electricity market price forecasts as the expected next day electricity prices optimal operating schedules and the associated costs are determined for each load these costs are compared with those of a perfect price forecast scenario in which actual prices are used to determine the operating schedules numerical results and discussions are provided based on price forecasts with different error characteristics

oil futures a comparison of global supply forecasts this paper compares and evaluates fourteen contemporary forecasts of global supply of conventional oil and provides some observations on their relative plausibility despite the wide range of modelling approaches used and multiplicity of assumptions made it is shown that forecasts can be usefully compared along two dimensions namely shape of future production profile and assumed or implied ultimately recoverable resource of conventional oil other differences between forecasts are either secondary or are components of these two parameters the paper shows how large differences in the assumed size of the resource make relatively little difference to the timing of a global peak in conventional oil production it also examines the impact of rates of discovery reserves growth and depletion on the forecast date of peak and shows how forecasts that delay this peak until beyond 2030 rest on assumptions that are at best optimistic and at worst implausible

strategic decisions on lawyers compensation in civil disputes i introduction a plaintiff and a defendant usually bargain to settle a civil dispute when they cannot reach a settlement the case goes to trial naturally through the settlement and trial stages the litigants behave strategically a few researchers study such a situation by developing contest models 1 examples include plott 1987 katz 1988 farmer and pecorino 1999 wfirneryd 2000 and hirshleifer and osborne 2001 there exists however some discrepancy between the contest models and the mainstream articles in the law and economics literature the contest models deal with the legal battle itself to use the words of hirshleifer and osborne 2001 by contrast the mainstream articles focus on one or some of the important aspects of the negotiation and litigation process such as the likelihood of settlement the reasons for lawsuits the efficient levels of precautions the burden of proof the comparison of alternative fee shifting systems and the compensation for lawyers in the presence of an agency problem 2 this article attempts to reconcile the two strands a bit further to do so we develop a contest model in which the negotiation and litigation stages are combined as in the previous contest models but unlike the previous ones two lawyers one for a plaintiff and the other for a defendant are introduced using this contest model with delegation we are able to analyze some of the important issues in legal disputes for instance a plaintiffs lawyer in the united states routinely charges one third of the award if his client wins and nothing if his client loses a natural question which we can address using our model is then why the lawyer s contingent fee is not one half of the award nor two thirds but one third using our model we can also address the following issues does the plaintiff have an incentive to choose an hourly fee arrangement if feasible does delegation to the lawyers increase the total legal expenditure of the plaintiff and defendant compared with the case of no delegation why do a plaintiff and a defendant hire lawyers in litigation a straightforward reason for such delegation is that a litigant can benefit by hiring a lawyer who has more capacity than herself throughout the article we use she to refer to a litigant and he to refer to a lawyer another explanation is that a litigant can benefit by achieving strategic commitments through delegation specifically the litigant can change her opponent s behavior in her favor by using a lawyer whose objective function differs from hers baik and kim 1997 consider a contest model that carries both aspects of delegation for the first time in the delegation literature but the idea that strategic delegation benefits a main player has long been emphasized in many contexts examples include schelling 1960 fershtman and judd 1987 katz 1991 and warneryd 2000 this article extends the delegation model of baik and kim 1997 to the case where a plaintiffs lawyer works on a contingent fee basis but a defendant s lawyer on an hourly fee basis 3 we assume that the litigants and lawyers are risk neutral to be more precise our two stage game runs as follows in the first stage knowing that the defendant adopts the hourly fee the plaintiff determines the contingent fee fraction for her lawyer and announces it publicly in the second stage the lawyers exert their effort simultaneously and independently to win the lawsuit the plaintiff s lawyer chooses the effort level on his own but the effort level of the defendant s lawyer is chosen by the defendant the defendant has to incur a monitoring cost because she hires her lawyer under the hourly fee we use logit form probability of winning functions after solving for the subgame perfect equilibrium of the game we first derive the condition on relevant parameters under which delegation to the lawyers brings both litigants more payoffs compared with the case of no delegation

economic impact analysis of load forecasting this paper examines the economic impact of inaccurate load forecasts monte carlo simulations are used to study the effect of different load forecasting accuracy investigations into the effect of improving the daily peak load forecasts effect of different seasons of the year and effect of utilization factors are also presented

long run equilibrium and total expenditures in rent seeking the lure of excess profits or rents associated with monopoly power gives rise to expenditures to obtain these rents competitive rent seeking behavior is recognized as a factor which must be included among the wastes associated with monopoly power tullock 1967 posner 1975 1 the expenditures are aimed at transferring wealth rather than its creation and the use of resources to obtain this transfer is a loss to society how important rent seeking is as a part of the total monopolistic waste hinges on the size of the total expenditures induced by a given level of excess profits

give peace a chance the effect of ownership and asymmetric information on peace abstract we study the possibility of peace when two countries fight a war over the ownership of a resource war is always the outcome of the game played by rational countries under complete or asymmetric information when there is no pre established distribution of the resource among countries when there is such a distribution of the resource under complete information peace is feasible for some initial distributions of the resource whereas under asymmetric information there are two classes of equilibria peaceful equilibria in which peace has a positive probability and aggressive equilibria which assign probability one to war surprisingly a little asymmetric information may yield war

distribution of surplus in sequential bargaining with endogenous recognition i examine a sequential bargaining situation in which agents contest the right to propose an allocation the contest can either take place at a pre bargaining stage yielding persistent recognition to propose or recur throughout the bargaining yielding transitory recognition equilibrium analysis reveals that surplus is distributed more unequally under persistent recognition social cost is higher under persistent recognition if and only if it attracts a sufficient number of active bargainers and individual s incentive to propose under transitory recognition may actually increase in the number of agents while this incentive always diminishes under persistent recognition

indicators for energy security the concept of energy security is widely used yet there is no consensus on its precise interpretation in this research we have provided an overview of available indicators for long term security of supply sos we distinguished four dimensions of energy security that relate to the availability accessibility affordability and acceptability of energy and classified indicators for energy security according to this taxonomy there is no one ideal indicator as the notion of energy security is highly context dependent rather applying multiple indicators leads to a broader understanding incorporating these indicators in model based scenario analysis showed accelerated depletion of currently known fossil resources due to increasing global demand coupled with increasing spatial discrepancy between consumption and production international trade in energy carriers is projected to have increased by 142 in 2050 compared to 2008 oil production is projected to become increasingly concentrated in a few countries up to 2030 after which production from other regions diversifies the market under stringent climate policies this diversification may not occur due to reduced demand for oil possible benefits of climate policy include increased fuel diversity and slower depletion of fossil resources

probabilistic lmp forecasting considering load uncertainty in power market studies the forecast of locational marginal price lmp relies on the load forecasting results from the viewpoint of planning it is well known that short term load forecasting results always carry certain degree of errors mainly due to the random nature of the load at the same time lmp step changes occur at critical load levels clls therefore it is interesting to investigate the impact of load forecasting uncertainty on lmp with the assumption of a certain probability distribution of the actual load this paper proposes the concept of probabilistic lmp and formulates the probability mass function of this random variable the expected value of probabilistic lmp is then derived as well as the lower and upper bound of its sensitivity in addition two useful curves alignment probability of deterministic lmp versus forecasted load and expected value of probabilistic lmp versus forecasted load are presented the first curve is designed to identify the probability that the forecasted price in a deterministic lmp matches the actual price at the forecasted load level the second curve is demonstrated to be smooth and therefore eliminates the step changes in deterministic lmp forecasting this helps planners avoid the possible sharp changes during decision making process the proposed concept and method are illustrated with a modified pjm five bus system and the ieee 118 bus system

on being asset constrained in litigation contests this paper establishes that being asset constrained may be advantageous for defendants in litigation contests an active asset constraint of defendants i may increase decrease defendant plaintiff contest effort ii may lower the sum of plaintiff and defendant contest effort iii lowers expected defendant payment and iv makes a symmetric contest asymmetric

oil supply and oil politics deja vu all over again president bush has identified us dependence on imported oil as an urgent energy economic and national security concern the president s energy plan promotes the development of domestic resources based on the assumption that economic incentives and the opening of frontier areas for exploration will increase domestic production if realized this will reduce dependence on imported oil and reduce opec s ability to affect aggregate oil supply and price the evidence suggests however that this policy will not increase significantly us production of crude oil will not reduce significantly opec s influence and it will distort the us macroeconomy even if allowed production from the arctic national wildlife refuge will have a negligible impact on the world oil markets further subsidies to the oil industry will divert resources from other more productive investments conservation and energy efficiency merit greater emphasis in us energy policy given their ability to reduce the use of cost effective and environmentally beneficial ways

long term diversification paths and energy transitions in europe the concentration of the energy mixes of eight european countries is measured latecomers historically enjoyed lower levels of concentration in their energy mixes early comers followed an inverted u path of concentration latecomers a u path a time effect and size effect explains the different patterns small energy consuming countries will be able to do faster transitions

vulnerability of the economy to the potential disturbances of energy supply a logic based model with application to the case of china the disturbances of energy supply that may result from both external and domestic events create a significant threat for national economy due to potential impacts on the productivity employment and overall economic growth building scenarios of the economy s vulnerability to these disturbances is delicate because of the significant number of interrelated factors that should be taken into consideration in this paper a logic based model lbm is developed which allows for defining exploring and assessing the determinants and the indicators of the economy s vulnerability related to the energy supply disturbances within a coherent scenarios assessment framework the proposed model is illustrated with the case of china after developing the general framework three particular scenarios are investigated based on the case study the performance and limitations of the model are analyzed and its ability to evaluate national energy policies is discussed finally some recommendations for further improvements are made

economic impacts of higher oil and gas prices the role of international trade for germany the analysis concentrates on direct and indirect price increases induced shifts in international trade and structural changes in the oil importing economies the paper at hand asks whether a stabilizing effect via international trade and domestic structural change on the gdp of oil importing countries can be observed if a permanent oil price increase occurs at least for germany structural change from consumer goods to investment goods industry and an improvement of international competitiveness limit negative impacts of increased energy prices analysis is based on the extensive and disaggregated global ginfors model and the detailed inforge model for the german economy

conceptualizing energy security abstract energy security 1 is one of the main targets of energy policy however the term has not been clearly defined which makes it hard to measure and difficult to balance against other policy objectives we review the multitude of definitions of energy security they can be characterized according to the sources of risk the scope of the impacts and the severity filters in the form of the speed size sustention spread singularity and sureness of impacts using a stylized case study for three european countries we illustrate how the selection of conceptual boundaries along these dimensions determines the outcome this can be avoided by more clearly separating between security of supply and other policy objectives this leads us to the definition of energy security as the continuity of energy supplies relative to demand

contingent fees meet the british rule an exploratory study compensation schemes in which lawyer s fees are contingent on winning the suit are becoming increasingly popular throughout europe at the same time the british rule of legal cost allocation is applicable in many european countries as a result it is of policy relevance how their coexistence may be harmonized this paper uses the litigation contest framework to analyze the consequences of three different cost allocation regimes if a plaintiff s attorney is compensated on a contingent fee basis we compare the equilibrium contest effort justice and payoffs for affected parties in the different regimes and find arguments in favor of not reimbursing contingent fees

energy policymaking in denmark implications for global energy security and sustainability denmark is arguably the most energy secure and sustainable country in the organization of economic cooperation and development oecd the country has reduced its dependence on foreign sources of energy to zero and become self sufficient in its own energy production and use offering important lessons for other nations around the world this study explores the core of denmark s successful approach a commitment to energy efficiency prolonged taxes on energy fuels electricity and carbon dioxide and incentives for combined heat and power chp and wind turbines through these commitments the study shows how denmark transitioned from being almost 100 percent dependent on imported fuels such as oil and coal for their power plants in 1970 to becoming a net exporter of fuels and electricity today the country leads the world in terms of exportation of wind energy technology with a hold on roughly one third of the world market for wind turbines it was able to phase out the use of virtually all oil fired power plants in less than five years and implemented a progressive moratorium on future coal fired power plants in the 1990s their most recent strategy seeks to achieve 30 percent of total energy supply from renewable energy by 2025

analysis of the value for unit commitment of improved load forecasts load forecast errors can yield suboptimal unit commitment decisions the economic cost of inaccurate forecasts is assessed by a combination of forecast simulation unit commitment optimization and economic dispatch modeling for several different generation load systems the forecast simulation preserves the error distributions and correlations actually experienced by users of a neural net based forecasting system underforecasts result in purchases of expensive peaking or spot market power overforecasts inflate start up and fixed costs because too much capacity is committed the value of improved accuracy is found to depend on load and generator characteristics for the systems considered here a reduction of 1 in mean absolute percentage error mape decreases variable generation costs by approximately 0 1 0 3 when mape is in the range of 3 5 these values are broadly consistent with the results of a survey of 19 utilities using estimates obtained by simpler methods a conservative estimate is that a 1 reduction in forecasting error for a 10 000 mw utility can save up to 1 6 million annually

assessing the determinants of sids pattern toward sustainability a statistical analysis abstract the aim of this paper is twofold first we assess the sids pattern towards energy sustainability second we try to understand the macro factors that drive policy makers in setting the optimal framework for investments in renewable energy sources the empirical analysis is performed on a large dataset of 136 countries and 41 variables observed in the time span 2000 2011 countries analyzed include a sample of 12 sids bahrain cuba dominican republic fiji islands guyana haiti jamaica maldives mauritius papua new guinea singapore trinidad and tobago distributed worldwide due to the large number of variables collected and their high degree of collinearity the first step of the analysis concerns the implementation of a principal component analysis in order to extract factors explaining the majority of variation of the original variables in the second step three different scenarios of modeling are designed to examine the key factors promoting res investments in a first scenario we employ a pooled regression model in the second a fixed effect model and in the third a random effect model is estimated the main results of empirical analysis could be unexpected at first sight they show in fact that sids are not on a energy sustainability path as in the case of other developing countries policy makers prefer to use resources to improve economic aspects of development leaving behind issues related to the environmental protection the use of res and sustainability in order to improve economic and environmental resilience of sids a synergy between local governments and international organizations to promote the investments in res is needed moreover an energy plan that clearly supports the generation of energy from res is recommended finally policy makers should strength their commitment in raising population s awareness toward a green energy generation such synergic interventions will allow sids to achieve a more sustainable development