is the growth of regionalism as significant as the headlines suggest lessons from agricultural trade the proliferation of regional trade agreements rtas has motivated a significant number of ex post econometric studies investigating their agricultural trade impacts the general conclusion is that rtas increase members trade by as much as 150 on average in this article we demonstrate that previous empirical work likely misrepresents the impact of rtas because of considerable heterogeneity in the depth of economic integration pursued by these agreements contrary to previous studies the results reveal that rtas are not universally trade creating and some agreements appear to provide very little benefit deep integration agreements on the other hand are largely responsible for the impressive agricultural trade flow increases reported in the literature testing the hierarchy of rtas largely confirms the theory the benefits of regionalism are an increasing function of the depth of economic integration

unforeseen contingencies and incomplete contracts we scrutinize the conceptual framework commonly used in the incomplete contract literature this literature usually assumes that contractual incompleteness is due to the transaction costs of describing or of even foreseeing the possible states of nature in advance we argue however that such transaction costs need not interfere with optimal contracting i e transaction costs need not be relevant provided that agents can probabilistically forecast their possible future payoffs even if other aspects of the state of the nature cannot be forecast in other words all that is required for optimality is that agents be able to perform dynamic programming an assumption always invoked by the incomplete contract literature the foregoing optimality result holds very generally provided that parties can commit themselves not to renegotiate moreover we point out that renegotiation may be hard to reconcile with a framework that otherwise presumes perfect rationality however even if renegotiation is allowed the result still remains valid provided that parties are risk averse

heterogeneous trade agreements wto membership and international trade an analysis using matching econometrics this article explores the heterogeneous effects of trade agreements tas and world trade organization wto membership on the volume of international trade we extend baier and bergstrand s 2009a application of matching econometrics by distinguishing between different types of tas and wto participation and account for the endogenous nature of trade policy for a panel data set covering 1960 2005 and 187 countries we find that the treatment effect on international trade systematically varies with the type of ta and wto membership

a theory of firm scope the formal literature on firm boundaries has assumed that ex post conflicts are resolved through bargaining in reality parties often simply exercise their decision rights we develop a model based on shading in which the use of authority has a central role we consider two firms deciding whether to adopt a common standard nonintegrated firms may fail to coordinate if one firm loses an integrated firm can internalize the externality but puts insufficient weight on employee benefits we use our approach to understand why cisco acquired stratacom a provider of new transmission technology we also analyze delegation

intra national home bias new evidence from the united states commodity flow survey abstract this paper estimates the us intra national home bias in trade using poisson pseudo maximum likelihood methodology to complement and extend wolf s 2000 work we use wolf s data from the 1993 commodity flow survey cfs and add the 1997 2002 2007 and 2012 waves we claim that wolf s home bias magnitude is overestimated due to the log linearization of the gravity equation and the control for distance used in the cross sectional study our results with panel data and latest econometric estimators show that the levels of us states home bias are in between 50 and 60 lower than in wolf s however since 2002 the home bias has experienced substantial growth which suggests that the us market is less commercially integrated in 2012 than in 1993

the reference point approach to the theory of the firm an introduction there is a small but growing literature on the reference point approach to incomplete contracts as formulated by hart and moore the reference point approach has begun to be applied to the theory of the firm in 3 recent papers this introduction reviews the main theoretical aspects of each of these papers it then discusses the relationship between the reference point approach to the firm the transaction cost approach and the property rights approach here it is argued that the reference point approach is a step back towards ex post inefficiencies away from reliance on ex ante inefficiencies

relational contracts and the theory of the firm relational contracts informal agreements sustained by the value of future relationships are prevalent within and between firms we develop repeated game models showing why and how relational contracts within firms vertical integration differ from those between nonintegration we show that integration affects the parties temptations to renege on a given relational contract and hence affects the best relational contract the parties can sustain in this sense the integration decision can be an instrument in the service of the parties relationship our approach also has implications for joint ventures alliances and networks and for the role of management within and between firms

the pro trade effect of the brain drain sorting out confounding factors we sort out confounding factors in the empirical link between bilateral migration and trade using newly available panel data on developing countries diaspora to rich oecd nations in a theory grounded gravity model we uncover a robust causal pro trade effect moreover we do not find evidence in favor of strong differences across education groups

hub and spoke free trade areas theory and evidence from israel we study how the sequential formation of free trade areas affects trade flows between member countries in a three country three good model of comparative advantage if two countries have an fta and both sign a similar agreement with the third trade between the two decreases however if only one of them signs an additional fta a hub and spoke pattern arises and trade between the initial members increases israel s experience lends strong support to our model trade between israel and the eu subject to an fta since 1975 increased by an additional 29 after the introduction of the us israel fta in 1985 on etudie comment la formation sequentielle de zones de libre echange affecte les flux commerciaux entre les pays membres dans un modele d avantage comparatif avec trois pays et trois biens si deux pays ont un accord de libre echange et qu ils signent tous deux un accord similaire avec un tiers pays le commerce entre les deux pays originaux decroit cependant si seulement un des deux pays originaux signe un accord avec le troisieme un reseau en etoile emerge et le commerce entre les deux payx d origine s accroit l experience d israel donne un fort support au modele le commerce entre israel et l union europeenne sujet a un accord de libre echange depuis 1975 s est accru de 29 apres l introduction de l accord de libre echange entre israel et les etats unis en 1985

surveying the economics of plural modes of organization why do firms concomitantly rely on more than one organizational arrangement to procure distribute a given input product in this paper we systematically review and discuss the extensive path undergone by the literature exploring this issue the so called plural forms we address two main questions how to explain the coexistence and often the prevalence of plural forms in many types of businesses are plural forms stable or a transitory phenomenon we describe the most prominent motivations identified in the economics and management literature that drive firms to adopt plural forms and show that their vast majority are related to the mitigation of various types of agency transaction costs we also demonstrate that most of the available pieces of empirical evidence suggest the stability of plural forms over time we conclude by demonstrating the path that has been trailed by the most recent developments

vertical integration and firm boundaries the evidence since ronald h coase s 1937 seminal paper a rich set of theories has been developed that deal with firm boundaries in vertical or input output structures in the last twenty five years empirical evidence that can shed light on those theories also has been accumulating we review the findings of empirical studies that have addressed two main interrelated questions first what types of transactions are best brought within the firm and second what are the consequences of vertical integration decisions for economic outcomes such as prices quantities investment and profits throughout we highlight areas of potential cross fertilization and promising areas for future work

are regional trading arrangements trade creating an application of extreme bounds analysis in this study we use extreme bounds analysis to test the robustness of the hypothesis that regional trading arrangements rtas are trade creating extreme bounds analysis provides a more rigorous test of specification uncertainty than traditional econometric theory by incorporating prior information and using a systematic approach to testing the fragility of coefficient estimates the results show that the trade creation effect of most rtas is fragile using a least squares estimator where all weight is attached to the sampling distribution eight or more of the twelve rtas considered are found to be trade creating when the relative weight in the estimation is shifted from the sampling to the prior distribution the number of rtas that are trade creating falls to six at the 95 percent likelihood ellipsoid moreover when we specify that not all rtas are trade creating four rtas increase trade at the 95 percent likelihood ellipsoid at the extreme bounds when all weight is attached to the prior distribution none of the rtas are found to be trade creating as a result we conclude that the pervasive trade creation effect found in the literature reflects not the information content of the data but rather the unacknowledged beliefs of the researchers

a theory of expropriation and deviations from perfect capital mobility there are many reasons why commodity trade fails to equate the rewards to factors of production in different countries consequently there is an incentive for factor movements between countries while movements of factors especially capital are important in the world economy they have not been sufficient to equate factor returns among countries the failure of capital flows to equate returns to capital is frequently attributed to political risks and left outside the sphere of economic analysis specifically investments abroad especially in ldc s are said to be more subject to the risk of expropriation or at least to unpredictable changes in the tax and exchange control regime adopted by the host country fears of foreign investors have often been realised williams i975 estimates that about 20 of the value of foreign investments carried into or made during i956 72 in ldc s was expropriated without compensation in this period in the past researchers in disciplines other than economics have been responsible for most of the analysis of expropriations we argue that an important set of economic considerations affect the nature of these impediments to capital mobility and this paper provides a theory of expropriation based on maximising behaviour by host countries and investors we use this theory to identify industry and national characteristics increasing the threat of expropriation and implying large deviations from equal returns on capital and to examine host country and home country policies minimising distortions from the threat of expropriation three broad conclusions follow from the analysis first the threat of expropriation can significantly distort the international allocation of capital even if the act of expropriation is relatively rare in the extreme acts of expropriation would never occur in a world of perfect foresight and rational decision making yet actions by investors to ensure that countries do not expropriate would be distorting second the ability of a country s government to expropriate foreign investments may actually reduce its welfare furthermore a host may be better off if home governments can retaliate against an expropriating country indeed an increase in the penalty imposed on an expropriating country may increase its welfare a government s power to expropriate after investments are made may alasdair smith and an associate editor made numerous valuable suggestions we would also like to thank g m grossman r w jones l a sjaastad n h stern and j e stiglitz for comments much of eaton s work on this paper was completed while he was a visitor at the graduate institute for international studies geneva an earlier version of this paper appeared under the same title as rpds

explaining import quality the role of the income distribution abstract we examine a generalized version of flam and helpman flam h helpman e 1987 vertical product differentiation and north south trade american economic review 77 810 822 in which consumption prices for quality differentiated goods are rising in household income we provide propositions for aggregating this relationship across heterogenous households to map cross country differences in income distributions to cross country differences in import price distributions the theoretical predictions are examined and confirmed using disaggregated data on prices of traded goods and micro data on household income from the luxemburg income study country pairs with more similar income distributions have more similar import price distributions whether similarity is measured by 1st 4th moment statistics population and consumption shares within world income and product price quantiles or income and price dis similarity indices

is trade in electrical and electronic products sensitive to ipr protection evidence from china s exports abstractthis article attempts to provide the first empirical evidence on the effect of intellectual property rights iprs on china s export of electrical and electronic products it adopts a gravity model for unbalanced panel data of china s 146 important trading partners over the period of 2002 2012 to eliminate the effects of fdi in determining the linkage between ipr and exports the panel excludes the destination countries and territories that invest in china the results reveal that the level of ipr protection in destination countries has a positive impact on china s flow of exports further analysis on data disaggregated by ipr score demonstrates that a higher level of ipr protection in destination countries and territories is positively linked with china s exports of these items in each of the ipr protection clusters and indicates a strong market power effect by the interplay between r d expenditure and ipr in the destinations finally both market power and market expansion effects are found to

insecurity and the pattern of trade an empirical investigation corruption and imperfect contract enforcement dramatically reduce international trade this paper estimates the reduction using a structural model of import demand in which insecurity acts as a hidden tax on trade we find that inadequate institutions constrain trade as much as tariffs do we also find that omission of indices of institutional quality biases the estimates of typical gravity models obscuring a negative relationship between per capita income and the share of total expenditure devoted to traded goods finally we argue that cross country variation in the effectiveness of institutions and the consequent variation in the prices of traded goods offer a simple explanation for the stylized fact that high income capital abundant countries trade disproportionately with each other

inequality and trade we incorporate demand side considerations in trade in a systematic but straightforward way we do so by focusing on the role of inequality in the determination of trade flows and patterns with nonhomothetic preferences when countries are similar in all respects but asset inequality we find that trade is driven by specialization in consumption n ot production these assumptions allow us to generate some interesting international spillover effects of redistributive policies we also look at the effects of combining inequality and endowment differences on trade flows and see that this has implications for the mystery of the missing trade we then study a model of monopolistic competition and find a novel vshaped relationship between the ratio of inter industry to intra industry trade and a country s inequality finally we look at how international differences in factor endowments affect this relationship between the ratio of inter to intra industry trade and inequality our theory formalizes as well as modifies linder s conjecture about the relationship between intraindustry trade and the extent of similarity between trading partners

information assets technology and organization although there is good reason to expect that the growth of information work and information technology will significantly affect the trade offs inherent in different structures for organizing work the theoretical basis for these changes remains poorly understood this paper seeks to address this gap by analyzing the incentive effects of different ownership arrangement in the spirit of the grossman hart moore ghm incomplete contracts theory of the firm a key departure from earlier approaches is the inclusion of a role for an information asset analogous to the ghm treatment of property this approach highlights the organizational significance of information ownership and information technology for instance using this framework one can determine when 1 informed workers are more likely to be owners than employees of firms 2 increased flexibility of assets will facilitate decentralization and 3 the need for centralized coordination will lead to centralized ownership the framework developed shed

contracts entrepreneurs market creation and judgement the contemporary mainstream theory of the firm in perspective this survey gives an overview of the theory of the firm as it is formulated within the contemporary mainstream of economics two groupings of theories are briefly discussed principal agent and incomplete contract models next three of the most recent contributions regarding firms are considered the reference point approach is looked at first followed by a discussion of spulber s book the theory of the firm last we consider the entrepreneurial judgement perspective

empirical models of political risks in u s oil production operations in venezuela in 9 of the years between 1961 and 1978 venezuelan regimes took actions adverse to the profitability of u s oil companies local production operations in this study 2 time series discriminant models were developed for classifying each of the 18 years according to the occurrence of such action in the first model adverse government action was found more likely to occur following years of economic decline and periods when u s companies earned high profits from petroleum investments in venezuela in the second model government action tended to occur after periods of relative deprivation experienced by venezuelans to illustrate the use of discriminant models in forecasting political risks hypothetical scenarios were formulated from which projections were made through 1985 of the likelihood of government action against those u s oil companies operations remaining since the nationalization of petroleum

immigrant links to the home country empirical implications for u s bilateral trade flows immigrants ties to their home countries can play a key role in fostering bilateral trade linkages immigrant ties include knowledge of home country markets language preferences and business contacts that have the potential to decrease trading transaction costs empirical results for the united states suggest that immigrant links have historically been important in increasing bilateral trade flows with immigrants home countries copyright 1994 by mit press

when an importer s protection of ipr interacts with an exporter s level of technology comparing the impacts on the exports of the north and south using bilateral trade data of countries from 2000 to 2007 this paper contributes to the empirical literature on the role of intellectual property rights iprs in global trade the existing literature has focused on how iprs in the destination country affect exports from a source country in this paper we add an additional dimension the level of technology of the exporting country lt this is quite important for distinguishing the impact of iprs on the exports of developed and developing countries since the technology levels vary across countries at different stages of development and intellectual property rights better protect exports that are technologically advanced than exports that are imitative and potentially infringing by factoring in the level of technology lt our empirical analysis makes the case that iprs can act as a barrier to the exports from the south especially the rapidly catching up economies and thus be a source for the middle income trap phenomenon

monopolistic competition and international trade reconsidering the evidence we test some propositions about international trade flows that are derived from models of monopolistic competition developed by elhanan helpman and paul krugman we investigate whether the volume of trade between oecd countries is consistent with the predictions of a model in which all trade is intraindustry trade in differentiated products we then repeat the test with non oecd countries we also investigate whether the share of intraindustry trade is consistent with a more general theoretical model in which some but not all trade is intraindustry trade our results lead us to question the apparent empirical success of these models

the history of the theory of the firm from marshall to robinson and chamberlin the source of positivism in economics a widely believed story in the folklore of the economics profession is that the theories of perfect competition and monopoly were well established from the time of marshall or perhaps pigou s economics of welfare and that the role of imperfect or monopolistic competition theory was to fill in the middle ground between these extremes it will be shown in this paper that the folklore conflicts with the historical evidence robinson and chamberlin created the theory of perfect competition in the course of inventing imperfect and monopolistic competition theory robinson and chamberlin between them were concerned with the same issues that concerned marshall the difference is that robinson and chamberlin derived their analyses from a few clear axioms while marshall sought to develop his analysis from a well informed but necessarily impressionistic description of actual business behaviour and dynamic processes along with the introduction of indifference analysis to english speaking economists by hicks and allen robinson and chamberlin gave the theory of value and distribution a complete and logically consistent axiomatic basis because their axioms relating to business motivation and behaviour were amenable to empirical verification the work of robinson and chamberlin rendered the theory of value and distribution open to a new empirical criticism it will be argued that the widespread acceptance of friedman s 195 3 positive methodological position was a necessary response to these empirical criticisms if the new axiomatic foundations of the theory of value and distribution were to be as secure as those previously provided by marshall

a generalized design for bilateral trade flow models abstract this paper suggests a full interaction effects design to analyze bilateral trade flows this is illustrated with an unbalanced panel of bilateral trade between the triad eu15 usa and japan economies and their 57 most important trading partners over the period 1986 1997 our full interaction model finds empirical support for the new trade theory and linder s hypothesis we show that the omission of one or more interaction effects can result in biased estimates and misleading inference

the firm as a communication network this paper analyzes how organizations can minimize costs of processing and communicating information communication is costly because it takes time for an agent to absorb new information sent by others agents can reduce this time by specializing in the processing of particular types of information when these returns to specialization outweigh costs of communication it is efficient for several agents to collaborate within a firm it is shown that efficient networks involve centralization that individuals delegate tasks to subordinates only if they are overloaded and that the number of transits to the top tends to be equalized across individual information items

four formal izable theories of the firm in this essay i define and compare elemental versions of four theories of the firm these elemental theories are distilled from important contributions by hart holmstrom klein williamson and others although these contributions have been widely cited and much discussed i have found it difficult to understand the commonalities distinctions and potential combinations of these seemingly familiar contributions in this essay therefore i attempt to clarify these issues in three steps i begin with informal summaries of the theories then turn to simple but formal statements of each elemental theory and finally nest the four elemental theories in an integrative framework

expropriation of foreign direct investments empirical evidence and implications for the debt crisis the message from the empirical tests is the following first we were not able to support the public interest hypothesis stating that selective expropriations are driven by a national welfare calculus with costs and benefits directly related to the technological characteristics of foreign firms instead the hypothesis that governments decide on expropriations with regard to their political self interest seems to be more appropriate this is true if we look at more widespread expropriations that are unspecific in terms of technological standards industries the main factor that drives politically motivated expropriations is the poor overall economic performance of a country which reinforces earlier findings e g picht 1988 351

inequality nonhomothetic preferences and trade a gravity approach we construct the first direct classification of goods as luxuries or necessities that is compatible with international trade data we then use it to test an idea that has not been tested directly in the literature countries income distributions are important determinants of their import demand and in particular of the difference in their import demands of luxuries versus necessities we interpret this result with the aid of a model in which preferences are nonhomothetic thus relaxing a long held and standard but empirically dubious assumption in the theory of international trade our model is strongly borne out by the results imports of luxuries increase with the importing country s inequality and imports of necessities decrease with it our calculations imply that if income distribution in the united states became as equal as in canada the united states would import about 9 13 fewer luxury goods and 13 19 more necessities

bilateral trade and similarity of income distributions the role of second moments this letter uses an augmented gravity model to revisit the effect of similarity in income distributions on bilateral trade flows we document a robust new empirical regularity while differences in average incomes between two countries increase trade differences in income dispersion reduce it our result sheds new light on the linder hypothesis and stresses the importance of demand based theories of international trade

the contractual nature of the firm for their helpful comments i am grateful to armen a alchian yoram barzel keith leffler john s mcgee and dean worcester 1 ronald h coase the nature of the firm 4 economica 386 1937 the paper however was written several years earlier see note 3 infra 2 the social sciences citation index provides the following information breaking down the period of 1966 80 into three five year periods the total citations of coase s firm paper for each subperiod are 1966 70 17 citations 1971 75 47 citations and 1976 80 105 citations

linder hypothesis revisited does it hold for services trade abstract this article examines how differences in the income level and income inequality of trading partners impact their bilateral trade in services results show that the linder hypothesis holds at the aggregate level both similar levels of per capita income and income inequality in two countries increase services trade however the precise impact varies with the particular service sector which highlights the importance of addressing the heterogeneity of service sectors

aggregate demand shifts income distribution and the linder hypothesis the intraindustry trade literature emphasizes nonhomothetic preferences and incomes as important determinants of aggregate demand and trade patterns the authors provide evidence for such preferences particularly that the structure of income driven demand shifts is related to indices of linder type product characteristics and that income distribution is a significant factor in determining aggregate expenditures these results imply that as general income levels rise the relative volume of trade in manufactured consumer goods should rise and the total volume of trade should rise independent of changes in the intercountry difference between income levels copyright 1996 by mit press

is the euro effect on trade so small after all new evidence using gravity equations with panel cointegration techniques in this paper we present new evidence on the aggregate effect of the euro on trade using data for 26 oecd countries for the period 1967 2008 we strive to fill the gaps present in the previous literature through a second generation panel cointegration tests and estimators that account for both cross section dependence in the data and discontinuities in the deterministic and the cointegrating vector in the time dimension this approach allows us to put the adoption of the euro by emu members in historical perspective we argue that the creation of the emu is best interpreted as a progression of policy changes once we control for all of them the euro effect decreases considerably but is still significant

aid trade and migration how do bilateral flows interact this paper takes as its point of departure the european commission s position set out in 2005 which laid clear emphasis on aid and trade as tools for controlling immigration we attempt to subject this position to empirical investigation we exploit data on bilateral aid trade and migration flows between developed and developing countries for the period 2000 10 adopting an instrumental variable approach to address the endogeneity issue due to potential simultaneity bias our results establish that increasing aid and trade with developing countries is likely to fail to contain immigration at least in the short run the pattern of results is consistent with the hypothesis that promoting development in migrant sending countries or cooperating with such countries to control migration outflows is not sufficient to lessen immigration increasing visa restrictions and controls at borders is generally controversial still the results imply that policymakers cannot attain their short term immigration goals with the so called smart solutions of aid and trade

gravity models a reformulation and an application to discriminatory trade arrangements gravity models are used to estimate trade flows from 162 countries into 11 major importing countries for 1976 counting the ec as one the main theories underlying gravity models are reviewed and a new gravity model is derived from a linear expenditure system a major innovation of this model is that both tariffs and dummy variables for discriminatory arrangements are incorporated price variables are also explicitly included in the model the tariff and the dummy variables are found to be statistically significant and this indicates that previous gravity model studies which used dummies to estimate the trade benefits of preferential tariffs may not have accurately estimated the effects of the preferences the price variables generally are also found to be statistically significant which casts doubt on the homogeneous goods assumption underlying the purchasing power parity hypothesis some significant differences in the estimates were found when separate equations were regressed for the eec and the us