efficient and durable decision rules with incomplete information we compare six concepts of efficiency for economies with incomplete information depending on the stage at which individuals welfare is evaluated and on whether incentive constraints are recognized an example is shown in which an incentive efficient decision rule may be unanimously rejected by the individuals in the economy we define durable decision rules which can resist such unanimous rejection and show that efficient durable decision rules exist

testing dependence between gdp and tourism s growth rates abstract the main aim of this paper is to link the economic behaviour and statistical properties of gdp and tourism receipts growth rates through modelling the dependence to that end two developed economies such as the united kingdom non tourist oriented and spain tourist oriented and an emerging economy such as croatia tourist oriented are considered as case studies therefore a copula based garch approach is employed to describe the dependence structure between gdp and tourism receipts growth rates in this respect any causality and cointegration between tourism and gdp could justify public policies that promote a more efficient public resource allocation in the tourism industry additionally evidence of dependence between growth rates can justify the extent and direction of these policies results indicate that there is a significant asymmetric and positive dependence between tourism and gdp growth rates for the three countries studied though only for croatia is it time varying over time

tourism as a long run economic growth factor the spanish case this paper examines the role of tourism in the spanish long run economic development the tourism led growth hypothesis is confirmed through cointegration and causality testing the results indicate that at least during the last three decades economic growth in spain has been sensible to persistent expansion of international tourism the increase of this activity has produced multiplier effects over time external competitivity has also been proved in the model to be a fundamental variable for spanish economic growth from the empirical analysis it can be inferred the positive effects on income that government policy in the adequacy of supply as well as in the promotion of tourist activity may bring about

the contribution of tourism development to economic growth in the korean economy abstract this study investigates the causal relations between tourism growth and economic expansion for the korean economy by using engle and granger two stage approach and a bivariate vector autoregression var model two principle results emerge from this study first the results of a cointegration test indicate that there is no long run equilibrium relation between two series second the outcomes of granger causality test imply the one way causal relationship of economic driven tourism growth the hypothesis of tourism led economic growth is not held in the korean economy this consequence is supported by testing the sensitivity of causality test under different lag selections along with the optimal lag

exploring the relationship among co2 emissions real gdp energy consumption and tourism in the eu and candidate countries evidence from panel models robust to heterogeneity and cross sectional dependence a major criticism to the existing energy growth environment literature we notice is the selection of methodology panel estimation techniques that fail to consider both heterogeneity and cross sectional dependence across countries may cause forecasting errors the other concern related to the literature is that only a small number of studies analyze the influence of tourism on co2 emissions even though tourism sector has potential for affecting the environment to fulfill the mentioned gaps in the literature this study analyzes the relationship among carbon emissions real income energy consumption and tourism for a panel of the eu and candidate countries over the period 1995 2011 by using heterogeneous panel estimation techniques with cross sectional dependence results from the cadf and the cips panel unit root tests show that the analyzed variables become stationary at their first differences the lm bootstrap panel cointegration test indicates the presence of a long run relationship among the analyzed variables results from the ols with fixed effects the fmols the dols and the group mean estimator reveal that energy consumption contributes to the level of emissions while real income and tourism mitigate co2 emissions the emirmahmutoglu kose panel granger causality test suggests that there is one way causality running from tourism to carbon emissions and two way causality between co2 emissions and energy consumption and between real income and co2 emissions policy implications are further discussed

energy consumption and gdp in developing countries a cointegrated panel analysis in this paper we re investigate the co movement and the causality relationship between energy consumption and gdp in 18 developing countries using data for the period 1975 to 2001 recently developed tests for the panel unit root heterogeneous panel cointegration and panel based error correction models are employed the empirical results provide clear support of a long run cointegration relationship after allowing for the heterogeneous country effect the long run relationship is estimated using a full modified ols the evidence shows that long run and short run causalities run from energy consumption to gdp but not vice versa this result indicates that energy conservation may harm economic growth in developing countries regardless of being transitory or permanent

tourism and economic growth nexus revisited a panel causality analysis for the case of the mediterranean region abstract tourism is perceived as an important source of foreign exchange that is used for financing economic growth this study offers a modern approach to tourism led growth and investigates the causal relationship between tourism and economic growth in the european asian and african countries that border the mediterranean sea the study uses panel data for the period 1998 2011 and adopts a panel granger causality analysis developed by dumitrescu and hurlin 2012 to assess the contribution tourism makes to economic growth in each country the results indicate that the direction of causality between tourism and economic growth depends on the country group and tourism indicator furthermore the european countries are better able to generate growth from tourism in the mediterranean region

efficiency and adverse selection abstract ex ante and interim constrained efficiency of market equilibria with adverse selection is studied with a continuum of qualities allocations which are attainable i e feasible incentive compatible and individually rational are convex combinations of one step allocations named for the fact that an agent s consumption is a single stepped function of quality this makes possible a simple geometric treatment of efficiency competitive equilibrium is efficient if the distribution of quality is not too convex wilson s bell j econ 11 1980 108 130 buyer s equilibrium is generically unique and efficient an efficient wilson s seller s equilibrium always exists

the pricing of forward contracts for foreign exchange this paper investigates the nature of observed deviations from the unbiased expectations hypothesis in the forward foreign exchange market if these deviations are due to risk premia then the same premia should be observed in nominal bonds denominated in different currencies this condition imposes testable restrictions on the parameters of a multivariate regression model the empirical results are consistent with a world in which time varying risk premia cause the observed deviations from unbiased expectations

investigating the influence of tourism on economic growth and carbon emissions evidence from panel analysis of the european union the study investigates the influence of tourism on economic growth and co2 emissions in the empirical analysis unit root and cointegration tests using panel data of european union countries from 1988 to 2009 are performed to examine the long run equilibrium relationship among tourism co2 emissions economic growth and foreign direct investment fdi results from panel cointegration techniques and fixed effects models indicate that a long run equilibrium relationship exists among these variables furthermore tourism co2 emissions and fdi have high significant positive effect on economic growth economic growth in turn shows a high significant positive impact on co2 emissions while tourism and fdi incur a high significant negative impact on co2 emissions

on the informational content of spot and forward exchange rates abstract in foreign exchange markets efficiency tests have typically been applied to the forward rate on the argument that the forward rate should be a good proxy for the unobservable market expectations of future spot rates the present study offers innovations in two directions first we utilize a data set which consists of daily observations on spot and forward exchange rates this allows us to match the forward contract with the exact settlement date and to create a large number of non overlapping data sets second and more importantly we show that in general the current spot rate is a better predictor of the future spot rate than is the current forward rate of appropriate maturity

change in energy related co2 carbon dioxide emissions in portuguese tourism a decomposition analysis from 2000 to 2008 abstract tourism is an activity with great potential in portugal at a time of economic crisis tourism is seen as an opportunity to boost the economy and provide sustainable economic growth this strategic path based on tourism has to be accomplished in order to make better use of the economic advantages but at the same time respecting the environment and environmental goals to which portugal is committed so it becomes important to analyze what effects contribute more to emissions in this sector as well as which tourism subsectors are more responsible for the increase of emissions the objective of this work is to identify the effects in which co2 carbon dioxide emissions in tourism can be broken down and analyzed as well as their evolution and which of them has more importance in determining emissions for that in this study a decomposition technique based on logarithmic mean divisia index was used in the 2000 2008 period for five tourism subsectors in portugal in general tourism activity is the most important effect energy mix carbon intensity and energy intensity effects also proved important

time varying linkages between tourism receipts and economic growth in south africa the causal link between tourism receipts and gdp has recently become a major focus in the tourism economics literature results obtained in recent studies about the causal link appear to be sensitive with respect to the countries analysed sample period and methodology employed considering the sensitivity of the causal link we use rolling window and time varying coefficient estimation methods to analyse the parameter stability and granger causality based on a vector error correction model vecm when applied to south africa for the period 1960 2011 the findings are as follows results from the full sample vecm indicate that there is no granger causality between tourism receipts and gdp while the findings from the time varying coefficients model based on the state space representation show that tourism receipts have positive predictive content for gdp for the entire period with the exception of the period between 1985 and 1990 full sample time varying causality tests show bidirectional strong causal

tax incentives and job creation in the tourism sector of brazil s sudene area summary in recent decades a significant number of developing countries have implemented fiscal incentives programs for the tourism industry as part of their regional development policies the main objective of these programs is to increase local investment and employment as tourism activities are labor intensive little evidence is available however to assess the effect of these policies on job creation in emerging markets in this paper we analyze a program of fiscal incentives introduced by the brazilian federal government in the sudene area in 2002 and in which tourism firms were eligible to participate through a difference in difference estimation we compare the change in the logarithm of local employment in the sudene municipalities before and after 2002 to the change in the same outcome in a group of municipalities that were not affected by the program although our empirical analysis does not measure the efficiency of a similar fiscal policy it is the first one in the literature to show its effectiveness it provides evidence that the fiscal incentives led to a substantial increase in tourism employment in the sudene area we find that over the period 2002 09 municipal tourism employment was on average 30 higher than in the absence of the intervention this result is robust and is not the consequence of either displacement effects or job destruction in neighboring municipalities that had not been targeted by the tax incentives we finally discuss some limitations of our analysis that might open avenues for future research in the field

tourism led growth hypothesis in the top ten tourist destinations new evidence using the quantile on quantile approach this paper examines the empirical validity of the tourism led growth hypothesis in the top ten tourist destinations in the world china france germany italy mexico russia spain turkey the united kingdom and the united states using the quantile on quantile qq approach and a new index of tourism activity that combines the most commonly used tourism indicators this methodology recently introduced by sim and zhou 2015 provides an ideal framework with which to capture the overall dependence structure between tourism development and economic growth the empirical results primarily show a positive relation between tourism and economic growth for the ten countries considered with substantial variations across countries and across quantiles within each country the weakest links are noted for china and germany possibly because of the limited importance of the tourism sector relative to other major economic activities in those countries important country specific policy implications may be drawn from these findings

effects of budgetary constraints on international tourism expenditures abstract this paper implements a logistic transition regression model to examine the relationships between gdp per capita and international tourism expenditures across countries in 2001 2010 by types of savings regimes while studies have focused on the effect of income on international tourism expenditures none consider the nonlinear smooth transition status of savings and its impacts on discretionary spending and hence expenditure on tourism the impact of income on tourism expenditures can vary under different savings regimes the results show that in a low savings regime the effect of an increase in the gdp per capita on international tourism expenditures is more pronounced in a high savings regime there is strong motivation for precautionary savings and tourism is considered a luxury therefore such spending is crowded out by an increase in savings as gdp per capita increases although international tourism expenditures also increase with gdp per capita they do so at a slower rate these findings establish an accurate understanding of the effects of savings on international tourism expenditures

further tests on the forward exchange rate unbiasedness hypothesis in this paper we reexamine the evidence on the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis for the main currencies vis a vis the u s dollar exchange rate using the phillips and hansen 1990 estimation and inference procedure

tourism development and economic growth a closer look at panels abstract this paper applies the new heterogeneous panel cointegration technique to re investigate the long run comovements and causal relationships between tourism development and economic growth for oecd and nonoecd countries including those in asia latin america and sub sahara africa for the 1990 2002 period on the global scale after allowing for the heterogeneous country effect a cointegrated relationship between gdp and tourism development is substantiated it is also determined that tourism development has a greater impact on gdp in nonoecd countries than in oecd countries and when the variable is tourism receipts the greatest impact is in sub sahara african countries additionally the real effective exchange rate has significant effects on economic growth finally in the long run the panel causality test shows unidirectional causality relationships from tourism development to economic growth in oecd countries bidirectional relationships in nonoecd countries but only weak relationships in asia our empirical findings have major policy implications

exploring the effects of international tourism on china s economic growth energy consumption and environmental pollution evidence from a regional panel analysis abstract this study explores the effects of international tourism on china s economic growth energy consumption and environmental pollution as proxied by co 2 emissions in a multivariate framework using regional panel data over the period 1995 2011 our findings suggest that the tourism induced ekc hypothesis does not exist in central china and is merely weakly supported in eastern and western china however results show that tourism has a negative impact on co 2 emissions in the eastern region which contradicts with our perception to some extent panel causality tests show that the directions of causality in both short and long runs are mixed among regions nevertheless our findings reveal that tourism causally affects economic growth and co 2 emissions in the long run thus tourism led growth hypothesis is verified under all three scenarios our findings also suggest that in all three regions there is bidirectional causality between economic growth and co 2 emissions overall these results imply that low carbon tourism in china should be continuously supported which provides significant insights to policy makers at various government levels

managing markets for toxic assets abstract a model in which banks trade toxic assets to raise funds for investment is analyzed toxic assets generate an adverse selection problem and consequently the interbank asset market provides insufficient liquidity investment is inefficiently low because acquiring funding requires banks to sell high quality assets for less than their fair value equity injections reduce liquidity and may be counterproductive as a policy for increasing investment paradoxically if it is directed to firms with the greatest liquidity needs an equity injection will reduce investment further asset purchase programs like the public private investment program often have favorable impacts on liquidity investment and welfare

the implications of tourism specialisation in the long run an econometric analysis for 13 oecd economies abstract the paper aims to illumine the longrun impact of specialisation in tourism it is shown that specialisation in tourism may not be deleterious for economic welfare once the terms of trade are considered conditions for an improvement in welfare are laid out and their existence tested by econometric methods within an almost ideal demand system formulation of tourist expenditure for 13 oecd economies the analysis uses cointegration techniques and novel sequential break dating procedures evaluated where the time dimension is small the values of the estimated parameters suggest that long run growth may not be harmed by tourism specialisation

tourism and economic development the beach disease abstract this paper analyses empirically the danger of a dutch disease effect in tourism dependent countries in the long run data on 134 countries of the world over the period 1970 2007 is used in a first step the long run relationship between tourism and economic growth is analysed in a cross country setting the results are then checked in a panel data framework on gdp per capita levels that allows to control for reverse causality non linearity and interactive effects it is found that there is no danger of a beach disease effect on the contrary tourism dependent countries do not face real exchange rate distortion and deindustrialisation but higher than average economic growth rates investment in physical capital such as for instance transport infrastructure is complementary to investment in tourism

tourism expansion tourism uncertainty and economic growth new evidence from taiwan and korea abstract this study examines the causal relationship between tourism expansion and economic growth in two asian countries taiwan and south korea an egarch m model with uncertainty factors is employed to examine the direction of causality between tourism expansion and economic growth as well as the impulse impacts of uncertainty on both variables the results indicate that the tourism led economic growth hypothesis is supported for taiwan while a reciprocal causal relationship is found for south korea the significant impacts of uncertainty on growth are also identified

financial development and economic growth evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests abstract in this paper we investigate the long run relationship between financial depth and economic growth trying to utilize the data in the most efficient manner via panel unit root tests and panel cointegration analysis in addition we use threshold cointegration tests and dynamic panel data estimation for a panel based vector error correction model the long run relationship is estimated using fully modified ols for 10 developing countries the empirical results provide clear support for the hypothesis that there is a single equilibrium relation between financial depth growth and ancillary variables and that the only cointegrating relation implies unidirectional causality from financial depth to growth

corporate governance tourism growth and firm performance evidence from publicly listed tourism firms in five middle eastern countries this study explores the under researched relationship between corporate governance and firm performance in tourism companies we employ instrumental variable modelling using 2sls for publicly listed firms in five countries in the middle east board independence is found to be positively related to firm performance and stock performance suggesting that having independent directors among board members will improve overall firm performance board size shows opposing results large boards enhance firm profitability however small boards exhibit more efficient stock performance finally we support the tourism led growth hypothesis in our selected sample these findings have empirical implications for policy makers governments and academics

covariance matrix estimators and tests of market efficiency abstract this paper carries out multi currency multi horizon and combined tests of simple market efficiency using alternative covariance matrix estimators whose finite sample performances have been examined elsewhere in the literature the data utilized are properly aligned weekly exchange rates from june 1973 to december 1994 on bid spot 1 month 3 month and 6 month ask forward rates for several currencies the results demonstrate that tests of market efficiency are sensitive to the information set specified the prediction horizon considered and the covariance matrix estimator employed in most but not all cases rejections of market efficiency are overturned using a prewhitened heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix estimator with optimal asymptotic properties and better finite sample performance

the foreign exchange market efficiency hypothesis revisiting the puzzle abstract the engle granger bivariate strong form and the johansen juselius multivariate weak form cointegration tests are performed between the spot and forward rate series over multiple horizons to test the market efficiency hypothesis meh

tourism development energy consumption and environmental kuznets curve trivariate analysis in the panel of developed and developing countries abstract the study investigates the relationship between economic growth carbon dioxide emissions tourism development energy demand domestic investment and health expenditures with an aim to test the validity of the environmental kuznets curve ekc hypothesis in the panel of three diversified world s region including east asia pacific european union and high income oecd and non oecd countries the study covers the period of last nine years i e 2005 2013 the study used the principal component analysis pca to construct tourism development index which is the amalgamation of number of tourists arrivals tourism receipts and international tourism expenditures the results validate the inverted u shaped relationship between carbon emissions and per capita income in the region the results further substantiate the following causal relationships i e i tourism induced carbon emissions ii energy induced emissions iii investment induced emissions iv growth led tourism v investment led tourism and vi health led tourism development in the region

oil prices tourism income and economic growth a structural var approach for european mediterranean countries abstract in this study a structural var model is employed to investigate the relationship among oil price shocks tourism variables and economic indicators in four european mediterranean countries in contrast with the current tourism literature we distinguish between three oil price shocks namely supply side aggregate demand and oil specific demand shocks overall our results indicate that oil specific demand shocks contemporaneously affect inflation and the tourism sector equity index whereas these shocks do not seem to have any lagged effects by contrast aggregate demand oil price shocks exercise a lagged effect either directly or indirectly to tourism generated income and economic growth the paper does not provide any evidence that supply side shocks trigger any responses from the remaining variables results are important for tourism agents and policy makers should they need to create hedging strategies against future oil price movements or plan for economic policy developments

categorizing risks in the insurance industry this paper analyzes the welfare implications of imperfectly categorizing risks in the insurance industry under conditions of asymmetric information firms initially unable to distinguish the risk type of individuals are provided with imperfect information concerning risk membership the paper then compares various wilson type equilibria to determine the welfare implications of firms imperfectly categorizing risks it is shown that only in the case where the initial equilibrium is of the nash no subsidy type is there a pareto type improvement in welfare

tourism and economic development a survey this article surveys the literature on tourism and economic development identifying the contribution that tourism can make to development including foreign currency income and employment and the costs that it entails single equation and system of equations models for estimating tourism demand are provided indicating developing countries potential to benefit from increasing expenditure on tourism but their susceptibility to deterioration in price competitiveness the main sectors of tourism supply transportation tour operators travel agents and accommodation are examined and the importance of cross country integration between firms is highlighted the article argues that many of the problems associated with the use of environmental resources for tourism stem from market failure and it considers methods for increasing sustainably the returns from them

effects of tourism on regional asymmetries empirical evidence for portugal abstract this study uses a vector autoregressive approach to estimate the regional effects of tourism in portugal with the ultimate objective of assessing tourism s role in reducing regional asymmetries we identify the locations where tourism generates higher effects for each region as well as the regions where tourism generates the strongest effects on the country s economic performance this issue is of particular interest from the side of the country s authorities since tourism is a strategic sector to promote national and regional convergence the study s findings suggest that tourism has contributed to the concentration of economic activity in the largest region of the country and to reduce the gap between the second and the third largest regions some regions benefit more from tourism located in other regions than tourism located in each region and tourism in all regions generate positive effects on the country s economic performance

pareto optima and competitive equilibria with adverse selection and moral hazard this paper explores the extent to which standard general equilibrium analysis of pareto optima and of competitive equilibria can be applied to environments with moral hazard and adverse selection problems allowing for lotteries contracts with random components we first establish that an adverse selection insurance economy a moral hazard insurance economy a signaling economy and a private information labor market economy are all special cases of a simple general structure we then show that techniques for characterizing pareto optimal contracts as solutions to concave programming problems are useful and nice and appear to be broadly applicable allowing for lotteries we show how to characterize the optimal allocations for the adverse selection insurance and labor market economies we then show that standard existence and optimality theorems for competitive equilibria apply in the linear space containing lotteries if agents with characteristics which are distinct and privately observed at the time of initial trading enter the economy wide resource constraints in a homogeneous way other kinds of diversity are not critical for economies with moral hazard which satisfy the homogeneity condition competitive contract markets single out a subset of the optima and thus can be consistent with apparent unemployment and with a random allocation of labor supplied though all households are averse to risk the adverse selection insurance and signaling economies however do not satisfy the homogeneity condition and are difficult to decentralize efficiently with a price system

on biases in the measurement of foreign exchange risk premiums abstract the hypothesis that the forward rate is an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate has been consistently rejected in recent empirical studies this paper examines several sources of measurement error and misspecification that might induce biases in such studies although previous inferences are shown to be robust to a failure to construct true returns and to omitted variable bias arising from conditional heteroskedasticity in spot rates we show that the parameters were not stable over the 1975 89 sample period estimation that allows for endogenous regime shifts in the parameters demonstrates that deviations from unbiasedness were more severe in the 1980s jel f31

asset quality cycles abstract systemic risk builds up during booms in an economy featuring asymmetric information in asset markets where investors hidden effort choices endogenously determine asset quality distribution higher asset prices during booms induce more investors to sell their assets which lowers their incentive to improve quality this quality deterioration in turn makes the economy vulnerable to future exogenous shocks because market breakdowns become more likely private agents do not internalize that their effort choices worsen future adverse selection problems and thus the planner may improve welfare by taxing trade and thereby lowering asset prices

is tourism an engine for economic recovery theory and empirical evidence abstract the purpose of this study is to examine the causal relationships between tourism development and economic growth for this purpose the dumitrescu and hurlin 2012 technique was employed to analyze the casual link between tourism development and economic growth in seven european countries the results showed that there is bidirectional causality between growth in tourism receipts and economic growth suggesting that economic growth and tourism development are interdependent and that tourism development stimulates economic growth and vice versa in these countries theoretical and practical implications are discussed within the realms of growth conservation feedback and neutrality hypotheses

on allocative distortions in problems of self selection this article considers the general structure of self selection models by imposing conditions which permit the ordering of agents by their preferences we provide a characterization of the distortions inherent in the sorting process

micro economic determinants of tourist expenditure a quantile regression approach abstract we assess the effect of the main determinants of tourist expenditure by applying both linear and quantile regression models to individual micro data collected by a survey addressed to non resident tourists who spent their holidays in sardinia during the period april october 2012 we find that in addition to income and foreign nationality tourist expenditure is crucially driven by trip related party size stay length accommodation sea and sun typology and transport modality and psychographic characteristics repeated visits and holiday motivations moreover our results indicate that the effects vary with respect to the expenditure component and the level of spending thus confirming the high complexity of the tourism product higher positive effects were found for heavy spenders in the case of foreign nationality previous visits and notoriety motivated holidays while party size and the number of visited sites contribute to reducing the level of expenditure for light spending tourists

adverse selection in durable goods markets we present a dynamic model of adverse selection to examine the interactions between new and used goods markets we find that the used market never shuts down the volume of trade can be large and distortions are lower than previously thought new cars prices can be higher under adverse selection than in its absence an extension to several brands that differ in reliability leads to testable predictions of the effects of adverse selection unreliable brands have steeper price declines and lower volumes of trade we contrast these predictions with those of a model where brands physically depreciate at different rates

the road less travelled institutional aspects of data and their influence on empirical estimates with an application to tests of forward rate unbiasedness the difference between data used in empirical studies and that envisioned in the theory can influence empirical estimates sometimes by enough that the direction of future research is altered this paper illustrates how in the context of tests of forward rate unbiasedness a lack of articulation about the mechanics underlying foreign exchange market speculation and about the institutional aspects governing spot and forward rate contracts leads to sampling of the data in a way that is not consistent with the theory the authors find that the sampling problems account for some but not all of the bias in the coefficient on the forward premium copyright 1996 by royal economic society

the unbiasedness hypothesis in the forward foreign exchange market a specification analysis with application to france italy japan the united kingdom and west germany abstract the purpose of this paper is to carry out a specification analysis of a test relation for the unbiasedness hypothesis using thirty day forward foreign exchange data from france italy japan the united kingdom and west germany the results indicate that econometric problems do exist for each country s test equation over the entire sample for each country there is at least one period which admits a statistically adequate regression equation results for these periods show that the null hypothesis of the unbiasedness of the forward rate is rejected for some countries but is retained for others

seasonality and regional productivity in the spanish accommodation sector abstract this study quantifies the impact of peak demand and seasonality on regional productivity in the spanish accommodation sector we then identify factors affecting seasonal fluctuations and their relative contributions to regional variations in seasonality the results show that demand for accommodation in the peak season mainly determines productivity thus improving a region s attractiveness as a tourist destination is most effective for tourism based regional development in addition reducing seasonal variations has a non negligible impact on productivity a decomposition analysis reveals that providing climate independent tourist attractions and attracting business travelers are effective in reducing seasonality

the impact of data errors on measurement of the foreign exchange risk premium abstract in most situations measurement error produces bias which it less likely that the null hypothesis will be rejected in the case of regression equations designed to estimate the premiums impounded in forward exchange rates the reverse is true because the forward rate appears on both sides of the equation measurement error makes it more likely that a risk premium will be found however the empirical results reported here indicate that there is still evidence of a risk premium even after taking account of measurement error

the relationship between energy consumption energy prices and economic growth time series evidence from asian developing countries this paper estimates the causal relationships between energy consumption and income for india indonesia the philippines and thailand using cointegration and error correction modelling techniques the results indicate that in the short run unidirectional granger causality runs from energy to income for india and indonesia while bidirectional granger causality runs from energy to income for thailand and the philippines in the case of thailand and the philippines energy income and prices are mutually causal the study results do not support the view that energy and income are neutral with respect to each other with the exception of indonesia and india where neutrality is observed in the short run c 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved jel classifications c22 q43 q48

a comparison of the moderating effect of tourism reliance on the economic development for islands and other countries abstract tourism is usually one of the top industries in most countries especially islands however there is some question as to whether there is a negative potential impact if a country relies too much on tourism as a means of economic development to the detriment of other industries such as manufacturing and agriculture the purpose of this paper is to examine the moderating effect of tourism reliance on the relationship between tourism development and economic development for regular countries and island economies including small island developing states sids this study uses quantile regression on panel data from the wdi database from 1995 through 2014 for all of the countries that report tourism and economic data the findings demonstrate that tourism reliance does have a moderating effect on the relationship between tourism development and economic development for all countries but mainly at higher levels of economic development

on durable goods markets with entry and adverse selection we investigate the nature of trading and sorting induced by the dynamic price mechanism in a competitive durable good market with adverse selection and exogenous entry of traders over time the model is a dynamic version of akerlof 1970 identical cohorts of durable goods whose quality is known only to potential sellers enter the market over time we show that there exists a cyclical equilibrium where all goods are traded within a finite number of periods after entry market failure is reflected in the length of waiting time before trade the model also provides an explanation of market fluctuations jel classification d82 a propos des marches de biens durables quand il y a entree de nouveaux commercants et selection adverse les auteurs analysent la nature du commerce et du triage engendres par le mecanisme dynamique des prix dans un marche concurrentiel de biens durables quand il y a selection adverse et entree exogene de nouveaux commercants dans le temps ce modele est une version dynamique du modele d akerlof 1970 des cohortes identiques de biens durables dont la qualite est connue seulement des vendeurs potentiels arrivent sur le marche dans le temps il semble qu il y ait plus de commerce actif que ce qui est prevu par un modele statique en particulier on montre qu il existe un equilibre cyclique ou tous les biens sont transiges a l interieur d un nombre fini de periodes apres leur arrivage et que a chaque phase du cycle l eventail de qualite des biens transiges s accroit les commercants qui transigent des produits de plus haute qualite attendent plus longtemps et l imperfection du marche se traduit par la longueur de temps d attente avant la transaction le modele fournit aussi une explication des fluctuations du marche

growth effects of leisure tourism and the level of economic development abstractthis study examines 1 whether leisure tourism can contribute to economic growth and 2 if it does whether its growth effects are constant across levels of economic development leisure tourism differs from business tourism in the causal relation with economic growth in addition the natural and heritage related resources for leisure tourism are limited and not reproducible this notion has a significant implication for the relationship between the growth effects of leisure tourism and the level of economic development thus the current study focuses on leisure tourism and controls for the effects of business tourism as an economy grows the growth effects of leisure tourism are expected to diminish due to a lack of continued productivity improvement in the tourism industry the empirical findings in this research reveal that leisure tourism contributes to economic growth at an early stage of economic development but its contribution becomes weaker as the economy develops