pareto improving campaign finance policy this paper argues that campaign finance policy in the form of contribution limits and matching public financing can be pareto improving even under very optimistic assumptions concerning the role of campaign advertising and the rationality of voters the optimistic assumptions are that candidates use campaign contributions to convey truthful information to voters about their qualifications for office and that voters update their beliefs rationally on the basis of the information they have seen the argument also assumes that campaign contributions are provided by interest groups and that candidates can offer to provide policy favors to attract higher contributions

the cyclical component of labor market polarization and jobless recoveries in the us abstract based on quarterly occupation level data from the us current population survey for 1976 2013 we exploit common cyclical employment dynamics to identify two clusters of occupations that roughly correspond to the widely discussed notion of routine and non routine jobs after decomposing the cyclical dynamics into a cluster specific structural and an occupation specific idiosyncratic component we detect significant structural breaks in the systematic dynamics of both clusters around 1990 we show that absent these breaks employment in the three jobless recoveries since 1990 would have recovered significantly more strongly than observed in the data even after controlling for observed idiosyncratic shocks

campaign spending and senate elections 1978 84 this paper uses a sample of recent senate election results and estimates vote equations that show challenger spending hurts and incumbent spending helps incumbent re election while both types of spending have diminishing returns the effects are asymmetrical challenger spending is more productive at lower levels of spending but incumbents can spend greater amounts more profitably than can challengers these results can explain why senate incumbents spend money why they typically outspend their challenger and why incumbents who can outspend their challenger would tend to be against spending limits or public financing

selling favors in the lab experiments on campaign finance reform campaign advertising can provide benefits to constituencies when used to fund the distribution of useful information but voters can be harmed if candidates finance such advertising by trading policy favors to special interests in exchange for contributions we report data from novel laboratory campaign finance experiments that shed light on this tradeoff and that provide rigorous empirical evidence on formal campaign finance theory our key finding is that voters respond to advertising differently between special interest and publicly financed campaigns and that the nature of this difference is qualitatively consistent with formal models predictions

how resilient are labour markets to natural disasters the case of the 1998 bangladesh flood abstract natural disasters devastate economies as they impede capital accumulation the resilience of labour markets is crucial for the poor who rely on labour to reduce risk we evaluate how the 1998 flood of the century affected wages in bangladesh we find short term declines in agricultural and non agricultural wages agricultural workers who moved towards non agricultural employment to cope benefitted through a lower percentage reduction in short term wages endowed with human capital salaried workers were unable to mitigate income risk extending the eligibility of credit access or relief programmes may preserve local businesses and their employees in the years following a flood

public sector pay and corruption measuring bribery from micro data abstract this study provides the first systematic measure of bribery using micro level data on reported earnings household spending and asset holdings we use the compensating differential framework and the estimated sectoral gap in reported earnings and expenditures to identify the size of unobserved unofficial compensation i e bribes of public sector employees in the case of ukraine we find that public sector employees receive 24 32 less wages than their private sector counterparts the gap is particularly large at the top of the wage distribution at the same time workers in both sectors have essentially identical level of consumer expenditures and asset holdings that unambiguously indicate the presence of non reported compensation in the public sector using the conditions of labor market equilibrium we develop an aggregate measure of bribery and find that the lower bound estimate of the extent of bribery in ukraine is between 460 million and 580 million u s dollars 0 9 1 2 of ukraine s gdp in 2003

the transition to the knowledge economy labor market institutions and income inequality in advanced democracies the transition from fordism to the knowledge economy in the world s advanced democracies was underpinned by the revolution in information and communications technology ict the introduction and rapid diffusion of ict pushed up wages for college educated workers with complementary skills and allowed top managers and ceos to reap greater rewards for their own talents despite these common pressures income inequality did not rise to the same extent everywhere income in the anglo saxon countries remains particularly unequally distributed to shed new light on this puzzle the authors carry out a panel data analysis of eighteen oecd countries between 1970 and 2007 their analysis stands apart from the existing empirical literature by taking a comparative perspective the article examines the extent to which the relationship between the knowledge economy and income inequality is influenced by national labor market institutions the authors find that the expansion of knowledge employment is positively associated with both the 90 10 wage ratio and the income share of the top 1 percent but that these effects are mitigated by the presence of strong labor market institutions such as coordinated wage bargaining strict employment protection legislation high union density and high collective bargaining coverage the authors provide robust evidence against the argument that industrial relations systems are no longer important safeguards of wage solidarity in the knowledge economy

the role of wages and auditing during a crackdown on corruption in the city of buenos aires abstract we study the prices paid for basic inputs during a crackdown on corruption in the public hospitals of the city of buenos aires argentina during 1996 97 we find a well defined negative effect on the measures used to capture corruption prices paid by hospitals for basic homogeneous inputs decrease by 15 percent during the first 9 months of the crackdown after this period prices increase but they are still 10 percent lower than those prevailing before the crackdown relative to the precrackdown period higher wages play no role in inducing lower input prices when audit intensity can be expected to be maximal during the first phase of the crackdown but have a negative and well defined effect when audit intensity takes intermediate levels the last phase of the crackdown controlling for fixed effects we find that the wage elasticity of input prices exceeds 20 these results are consistent with the standard model of bribes of gary becker and george stigler

the impact of natural disaster on energy consumption international evidence abstract this research shows that natural disasters may hurt energy consumption by using data on 123 countries over the period 1990 2015 and classifying them according to their economic development level and region based on world development indicators we employ a two step system gmm method to examine the effect of natural disasters on energy consumption presenting findings that support our hypotheses in the models and show a strong negative effect for low income countries or those in the africa region after considering an alternative proxy for natural disaster we implement quantile regression methods their results find that natural disasters exhibit a negative and significant impact on oil renewable and nuclear energy consumptions the quantile regression models used in the robustness check present that the effects are stronger for low level energy consumption economies

estimating the effect of campaign spending on senate election outcomes using instrumental variables o examine the traditional view that challenger spending is more effective than incumbent spending 7 i reestimate the effects of spending using instrumental variables that affect a candidate s ability to raise campaign funds such as candidate wealth levels hhen the endogeneity of candidate spending levels is properly taken into account the marginal effects of incumbent and challenger spending are roughly equal in contrast to previous research showing that because of higher marginal returns to challenger spending the incumbent s spending advantage cannot explain high incumbent reelection rates this article shows that in an average senate election the incumbent s spending advantage yields a 6 increase in the incumbent s vote share that incumbent spending wins elections has direct implications regarding the consequences of campaign finance reform my findings imply that equalizing spending levels may significantly increase incumbent defeat rates and caps on candidate spending may improve the chances of challengers in american congressional elections incumbents routinely win reelection even in the 1994 republican landslide change in the partisan makeup of congress occurred mainly through open seats switching from the democrats to the republicans a common explanation for high congressional reelection rates is the large campaign spending advantage enjoyed by incumbents it is widely believed that challenger spending is very important but there is surprisingly little evidence in the academic literature that incumbent campaign spending has an important effect on congressional election outcomes in light of the substantial effort incumbents devote to fundraising as well as some nagging methodological questions about existing academic studies the effect of incumbent spending on election outcomes remains an unresolved issue accurately measuring how incumbent spending leads to votes is of obvious importance politicians want to win elections and so if money matters then this will influence their behavior if campaign spending effects are trivial then concerns about politicians being

an individual level multiequation model of expenditure effects in contested house elections e shall address questions concerning the impact of candidate spending in congressional elections in a new way we develop a multiequation model of congressional vote choice a v that takes the endogeneity of expenditures into account we then estimate both this model and the more traditional single equation model using individual level survey data the substantial differences we find between the two models indicates that the simultaneity bias present in the single equation model is not trivial the challenger and incumbent expenditure terms are each significant whereas only challenger expenditures are in the single equation setup and of much greater magnitude in the multiequation case in addition we evaluate hypotheses grounded in persuasive communications theory concerning the type of individuals most affected by the messages emanating from the campaigns we find that individuals with higher education those with greater interest in campaigns and those with strongly held convictions are unaffected by candidate spending whereas individuals lacking each of these attributes are greatly influenced by campaign expenditures

job polarization and task biased technological change evidence from sweden 1975 2005 this paper shows that between 1975 and 2005 sweden exhibited a pattern of job polarization with expansions of the highest and lowest paid jobs compared to middle wage jobs the most popular explan

structural transformation and the deterioration of european labor market outcomes this paper examines hours worked in continental europe and the united states from 1956 to 2003 the empirical work establishes two results first hours worked in europe decline by almost 45 percent compared to the united states over this period second this decline is almost entirely accounted for by the fact that europe develops a much smaller market service sector than the united states a simple model of time allocation is used to understand these patterns i find that relative increases in taxes and technological catch up can account for most of the differences between the european and american time allocations over this period

gordon tullock and experimental economics gordon tullock s research has substantially influenced the development of economic science in general and experimental economics in particular we present the first comprehensive survey of this significant achievement we show how tullock s research in bioeconomics influenced later developments in neuroeconomics and how his pioneering work on rent seeking generated a literature of laboratory tests of his hypothesis we also describe tullock s own experiments and draw attention to his early insights on trust games

do natural disasters open a window of opportunity for corruption this study explores the link between natural disasters and corruption at the local government level we examine whether a natural disaster affects official households more favourably than non official households we find that natural disasters decrease nonofficial household expenditures significantly however they have negligible effect on official household expenditures meanwhile both kinds of households experience similar reduction in incomes and have much the same disaster coping strategies together the results imply that local officials may receive unobserved monetary compensation we define as corruption in the aftermath of natural disasters

the citizen candidate model an experimental analysis citizen candidate models represent a significant advance in the analysis of public choice they provide added realism to models of endogenous policy formation relate the number of candidates to the benefits and costs associated with electoral competition and support equilibria with differentiated candidate positions even with a multidimensional policy space in this paper experimental methods are utilized to test two of the model s equilibrium predictions the results support the prediction that an increase in the net benefits to winning an election increases the number of citizens entering electoral contests when the net benefits to winning an election are low the results support the prediction that the only candidate has the median preference further the results suggest that when net benefits are high two members of the electorate with preferences close to and symmetric about the median enter the election although convergence to this equilibrium takes time because entry is costly having multiple candidates lowers group payoffs and may be seen as inefficient

reconstructing the eurozone the role of eu social policy it is widely recognised that the institutional architecture housing monetary union in europe is deeply flawed although there has been considerable discussion about how these shortcomings can be put right relatively little has been said about the role eu social policy can play in making the eurozone more stable and sustainable the purpose of this paper is to address this shortcoming it is argued that that some form of eu social union is urgent for without it the immediate financial problems facing the members of the eurozone cannot be resolved the paper seeks to explain what role eu social policies can play in the construction of an adequate federal framework for the monetary union it is argued that a fully fledged social union is unlikely to emerge that involves massive transfers from the european core to the periphery at the same time it is envisaged that eu social policy will need to be strengthened considerably with interventions focusing on employment creation and on the capacity of national governments to maintain domestic social safety nets

people places and earnings differentials in scotland abstractpeople places and earnings differentials in scotland regional studies this paper investigates the contribution of people and place effects to earnings differentials in scotland using individual and regional data the main sources of differentials are attributed to workers characteristics people effects particularly academic and vocational qualifications followed by occupational and industrial affiliations on the other hand differences in the attributes of local area labour markets place effects explain only a small part of individual earnings differentials the most relevant spatial attribute is local area human capital the findings suggest that people based policies are likely to be more effective at improving workers earnings prospects than place based policies

the care economy gender economic restructuring and job polarization in the u s labor market the u s job structure became increasingly polarized at the turn of the twenty first century as high and low wage jobs grew strongly and many middle wage jobs declined prior research on the sourc

the causes of legal rents extraction evidence from spanish municipalities this paper analyzes the causes of legal political rent extraction by using a direct measure of it namely local top politicians wages in particular we investigate whether local politicians incentives to extract rents by setting their own wages are influenced by the degree of political competition and voter information we use a sample of the largest spanish municipalities over the years 2008 2010 the results indicate that weaker political competition and lesser voter information are related to more rent extraction in an additional analysis we show that higher wages do not ensure better financial management these findings confirm that when politicians can set their own salaries higher wages do not mean better management but they are just political rents

political machinery did robots swing the 2016 us presidential election technological progress has created prosperity for mankind at large yet it has always created winners and losers in the labour market during the days of the british industrial revolution a sizeable share of the workforce was left worse off by almost any measure as it lost its jobs to technology the result was a series of riots against machines in similar fashion robots have recently reduced employment and wages in us labour markets building on the intuition that voters who have lost out to technology are more likely to opt for radical political change we examine if robots shaped the outcome of the 2016 us presidential election pitching technology against a host of alternative explanations including offshoring and trade exposure we document that the support for donald trump was significantly higher in local labour markets more exposed to the adoption of robots a counterfactual analysis based on our estimates shows that michigan pennsylvania and wisconsin would have swung in favour of hillary clinton if the exposure to robots had not increased in the immediate years leading up to the election leaving the democrats with a majority in the electoral college less

money and votes reconsidered congressional elections 1972 1982 the evolution of congressional campaign finance over the past decade is characterized by steady growth in campaign spending and other notable changes in campaign finance practices the main purpose of the research reported here was to determine whether these changes have altered the effects of campaign spending on election outcomes this required reexamination of auxiliary questions concerning how sending effects operate and can be measured it also required facing the limits of what analysis of aggregate campaign spending data can tell us about money in elections replication of ols and 2sls analyses of campaign spending effects produced solidly consistent results over the six congressional elections held between 1972 and 1982 taken at face value the evidence is overwhelming that the challenger s level of spending has a strong impact on the vote whereas that of the incumbent has virtually no impact at all but the evidence remains open to doubt on two grounds one is the probable inadequacy of the 2sls model or perhaps any possible model leaving the issue of simultaneity bias unsettled if bias remains the estimates exaggerate the electoral effects of the challenger s campaign expenditures the issue cannot be resolved with more of the same data but rather requires data of a different sort surveys taken over the course of a sample of campaigns would do the trick meanwhile i think it would be foolish to make policy on the assumption that bias is in fact substantial the greatest likelihood remains that restrictions on campaign money will have the general effect of hurting challengers jacobson 1979 the other doubtful albeit equally stable finding is that incumbents do not gain votes by spending in campaigns no incumbent seems to believe it and there is at least circumstantial evidence from for example the 1982 elections that their skepticism is quite justified if so the problem lies in the limits of what aggregate data of the kind analyzed here can tell us few incumbents do not spend heavily when they are strongly challenged if both candidates spend beyond the point needed to become thoroughly familiar to voters then the substance of the campaigns the contents of campaign messages become the dominant factors incumbents may need to spend money in order to change the message as new circumstances arise to frame new issues that would help them most or damage them least to win the battle of establishing the real issues like nonincumbents sitting members may sometimes need to spend beyond a certain threshold to remain competitive but nearly all of them do so when the necessity arises so aggregate spending data are largely uninformative how the money is spent rather than how much is what matters the two most notable developments in congressional campaign finance have opposing implications national party organizations particularly the republican have assumed an increasingly important role in financing campaigns greater central control leads to a more efficient distribution of the party s collective campaign resources which among other things promises to raise the overall level of electoral competition it also leads to more coordinated campaigning with greater emphasis on national themes and programs thus it should foster more cooperation and loyalty among fellow partisans in congress but pacs have also grown in numbers and in financial importance because most concentrate on gaining access to incumbents they do little to make elections more competitive because they usually pursue narrowly defined interests their influence fragments the congress and weakens party coalitions in this and other ways parties and pacs are natural rivals the most consequential decisions taken in the next round in campaign finance policy will be those which affect the relative importance of parties and pacs see u s congress 1984 for comments on this and other current campaign finance issues

what does human capital do a review of goldin and katz s the race between education and technology goldin and katz s the race between education and technology is a monumental achievement that supplies a unified framework for interpreting how the demand and supply of human capital have shaped the distribution of earnings in the u s labor market over the twentieth century this essay reviews the theoretical and conceptual underpinnings of this work and documents the success of goldin and katz s frame work in accounting for numerous broad labor market trends the essay also considers areas where the framework falls short in explaining several key labor market puzzles of recent decades and argues that these shortcomings can potentially be overcome by relaxing the implicit equivalence drawn between workers skills and their job tasks in the conceptual framework on which goldin and katz build the essay argues that allowing for a richer set of interactions between skills and technologies in accomplish ing job tasks both augments and refines the predictions of goldin and katz s approach and suggests an even more important role for human capital in economic growth than indicated by their analysis jel i20 j24 j31 o30

myth and reality of flat tax reform micro estimates of tax evasion response and welfare effects in russia we examine the effects of russia s 2001 flat rate income tax reform on consumption income and tax evasion we use the gap between household expenditures and reported earnings as a proxy for tax e

does foreign direct investment affect wage inequality an empirical investigation we use a panel of more than 100 countries for the period 1980 2002 to analyse the relationship between inward foreign direct investment fdi and wage inequality we particularly check whether this relationship is nonlinear in line with a theoretical discussion we find that the effect of fdi differs according to the level of development we depict two different patterns one for oecd developed and one for non oecd developing countries results suggest the presence of a nonlinear effect in developing countries wage inequality increases with fdi inward stock with such effect diminishing with further increases in fdi for developed countries wage inequality decreases with fdi inward stock and there is no robust evidence to show that this effect is nonlinear

the polarization of the u s labor market this paper analyzes a marked change in the evolution of the u s wage structure over the past fifteen years divergent trends in upper tail 90 50 and lower tail 50 10 wage inequality we document that wage inequality in the top half of distribution has displayed an unchecked and rather smooth secular rise for the last 25 years since 1980 wage inequality in the bottom half of the distribution also grew rapidly from 1979 to 1987 but it has ceased growing and for some measures actually narrowed since the late 1980s furthermore we find that occupational employment growth shifted from monotonically increasing in wages education in the 1980s to a pattern of more rapid growth in jobs at the top and bottom relative to the middles of the wage education distribution in the 1990s we characterize these patterns as the u201cpolarization u201d of the u s labor market with employment polarizing into high wage and low wage jobs at the expense of middle wage work we show how a model of computerization in which computers most strongly complement the non routine abstract cognitive tasks of high wage jobs directly substitute for the routine tasks found in many traditional middle wage jobs and may have little direct impact on non routine manual tasks in relatively low wage jobs can help explain the observed polarization of the u s labor market this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

job polarization in europe the structure of employment is always changing and economists are always trying to understand those changes in the 1990s the idea of skill biased technological change sbtc was used to understand the shift in employment toward more educated workers see david h autor and lawrence f katz 1999 for a survey however in recent years it has become appar ent that a more nuanced approach is needed the idea of sbtc might lead one to predict a uni form shift in employment away from low skilled and toward high skilled occupations but studies for the united states autor katz and melissa s kearney 2006 and the united kingdom goos and manning 2007 have shown that there is growth in employment in both the high est skilled professional and managerial and lowest skilled personal services occupations with declining employment in the middle of the distribution manufacturing and routine office jobs this is what goos and manning 2007 term job polarization although see the introduc tion to goos and manning 2007 for antecedents of these ideas there are several hypotheses about the rea sons for job polarization first the routiniza tion hypothesis first put forward by autor frank levy and richard murnane 2003 sug gests that the effect of technological progress is to replace routine labor which tends to be clerical and craft jobs in the middle of the wage distribution second there is the view that globalization in general and offshoring in par ticular is an important source of change in the job structure in the richest countries see for example alan s blinder 2007 third there may be a link between job polarization and

interindustry wage differentials technology adoption and job polarization abstract based on observations that high wage industries in 1980 experienced more evident job polarization between 1980 and 2009 we hypothesize that the persistent structure of interindustry wage differentials leads to heterogeneity in job polarization across industries as the relative price of ict capital declines firms respond to exogenous wage differentials by replacing routine workers with capital our empirical analysis shows that during the last three decades the annualized growth rate of ict capital per worker increased by 0 34 percent and that of routine employment decreased by 0 41 percent in the u s industries that paid 10 percent higher wages in 1980

an experimental study of alternative campaign finance systems transparency donations and policy choices we experimentally study the transparency effect of alternative campaign finance systems on donations election outcomes policy choices and welfare three alternatives are considered one where donors preferences and donations are unobserved by the candidate and public one where they are observed by the candidate but not the public and one where they are observed by all we label them full anonymity fa partial anonymity pa and no anonymity na respectively we find that in na and pa candidates consistently respond to donations by choosing policies favoring the donors fa in contrast is the most successful in limiting the influence of donations on policy choices donors benefit greatly from the possibility of donations whereas social welfare may be harmed in some treatments to our knowledge this article is the first to investigate the effect of different campaign finance systems distinguished by their transparency level jel d72

occupations at risk job tasks job security and wages germany similar to other developed countries witnessed a sharp decline in jobs that used to constitute the middle class in the 1970s and 1980s this decline has been associated with the level to which jobs are codifiable there is evidence that codifiable tasks are more prone to technological substitution and outsourcing compared with tacit tasks this article empirically investigates two crucial aspects of the decline in codified jobs first it studies what happened to workers in codified occupations in terms of unemployment occupational change and wages second it revisits the hypothesis that code based technologies are the major driver of this labor market shift we find that job codification is associated with both higher unemployment and higher occupational change it is also associated with wage losses for workers who left routinized jobs we find however little evidence that code based technologies were the driving factor behind these dynamics

political quid pro quo agreements an experimental study we experimentally study the common wisdom that money buys political influence in the game one special interest i e a corporate firm has the opportunity to influence redistributive tax policies in her favor by transferring money to two competing candidates the success of the investment depends on whether or not the candidates are willing and able to collude on low tax policies that do not harm their relative chances in the elections in the experiment successful political influence never materializes when the firm and candidates interact just once by contrast it yields substantially lower redistribution in about 40 of societies with finitely repeated encounters however investments are not always profitable and profit sharing between the firm and candidates depends on prominent equity norms our experimental results shed new light on the complex process of buying political influence in everyday politics and help explain why only relatively few firms do actually attempt to influence policymaking

wage shocks and the technological substitution of low wage jobs we extend the task based empirical framework used in the job polarization literature to analyze the susceptibility of low wage employment to technological substitution we nd that increases in the cost of low wage labor via minimum wage hikes lead to relative employment declines at cognitively routine occupations but not manuallyroutine or non routine low wage occupations this suggests that low wage routine cognitive tasks are susceptible to technological substitution while the short run em

media markets special interests and voters abstract this paper examines the role of mass media in countering special interest group influence i use the concentration of campaign contributions from political action committees to proxy for special interests capture of us senate candidates from 1980 to 2002 and compare the reaction of voters to increases in concentration in two different types of media markets in state media markets and out of state media markets unlike in state media markets out of state markets focus on neighboring states politics and elections thus if citizens punish political capture increases in concentration of special interest contributions to a particular candidate should reduce his vote share in in state counties relative to the out of state counties where the candidate receives less coverage i find that a one standard deviation increase in concentration of special interest contributions to incumbents reduces their vote share by about 0 5 to 1 5 percentage points in in state counties relative to the out of state counties robustness checks suggest that these results are not driven by omitted senator characteristics or by differences between in state and out of state counties along dimensions other than the media environment

job polarization and jobless recoveries job polarization refers to the shrinking share of employment in middle skill routine occupations experienced over the past 35 years jobless recoveries refers to the slow rebound in aggregate empl

inequality and its discontents inequality in the distribution of income and wealth has come to the fore as a core concern across the industrialized world here we examine what has happened to income inequality across the rich countries in recent decades we discuss the range of factors that appear to be driving inequality upwards notably the role of technological change globalization and national institutions and policies we look at how rising inequality might undermine economic growth and squeeze the middle and assess the extent to which it has actually done so we assess whether rising inequality is associated with worsening outcomes and inequalities across various social domains finally we review emerging evidence on the role that rising inequality may be playing in the revolt of the angry and rise of populism

unintended consequences on gender diversity of high tech growth and labor market polarization abstract there has been considerable media coverage highlighting the lack of gender diversity in silicon valley stressing the relatively low participation of women in the high tech economy austin offers a unique case for testing whether similar gender issues characterized other high tech regions because the city has historically benefited from the expansion of silicon valley s large high tech firms since the 1980s the gender biased business practices identified in silicon valley firms may have been transferred to their branch plants in austin our analysis shows women s losses in middle skill occupation employment shares were concentrated in the low tech industry and were partially offset by job share gains in high skill occupations in the same sector between 1980 and 2015 men s losses in middle skill occupation job share were also mainly concentrated in the low tech sector but were partially offset by employment share gains in high skill occupations only in the high tech industry during this period women made large gains in relative real median wages only in high skill occupations in the high tech industry while their relative real median wages in other skill occupations and in the low tech industry stagnated around zero during this period men s gains in relative median wages were also concentrated only in the high tech industry but were less than half of women s and were negative between 10 and 21 percent in other occupations in the high tech industry and across all occupations in the low tech industry as noted in previous studies the impact of job polarization is not well understood across sectors and gender this study finds the high tech industry in austin has had unintended consequences in terms of job polarization across gender providing relatively fewer job opportunities in high skill occupations to women than men but offering much higher gains in relative real median wages to women than men males also found relatively more job opportunities in high skill occupations in the high tech industry than women but experienced only half of women s gains in relative median wages in this industry between 1980 and 2015

the paradox of weak ties in 55 countries abstract people find jobs through their social networks using ties of different strengths intuitively weak ties might be less useful because people communicate less often with them or more useful because they provide novel information granovetter s early work showed that more job seekers get help via acquaintances than friends granovetter 1973 however recent work on job finding gee et al 2017 shows an apparent paradox of weak ties in the united states most people are helped through one of their numerous weak ties but a single stronger tie is significantly more valuable at the margin although some studies have addressed the importance of weak ties in job finding within specific countries this is the first paper to use a single dataset and methodology to compare the importance of weak ties across countries here we use de identified data from almost 17 million social ties in 55 countries to document the widespread existence of this paradox of weak ties across many societies more people get jobs where their weak ties work however this is not because weak ties are more helpful than strong ties it is because they are more numerous in every country the likelihood of going to work where an individual friend works is increasing not decreasing with tie strength yet there is substantial variation in the added value of a strong tie at the margin across these countries we show that the level of income inequality in a country is positively correlated with the added value of a strong tie so that individual strong ties matter more when there is greater income inequality

advertising effects in presidential elections presidential elections provide both an important context in which to study advertising and a setting that mitigates the challenges of dynamics and endogeneity we use the 2000 and 2004 general elections to analyze the effect of market level advertising on county level vote shares the results indicate significant positive effects of advertising exposures both instrumental variables and fixed effects alter the ad coefficient advertising elasticities are smaller than are typical for branded goods yet significant enough to shift election outcomes for example if advertising were set to zero and all other factors held constant three states electoral votes would have changed parties in 2000 given the narrow margin of victory in 2000 this shift would have resulted in a different president

campaign contributions as investments the u s house of representatives 1980 1986 this paper treats the market for special interest campaign contributions and political favors as a simple asset market the model yields a simple equilibrium relationship among three variables the total amount of investor contributions a candidate receives the monetary value of the favors he has promised and his probability of winning using data on open seat races for the u s house of representatives i confront the model with a series of tests despite the starkness of the model the results of these tests are highly supportive

income polarization in european countries and europe wide 2004 2012 polarization is an interesting additional social indicator for analyzing income distribution across countries as it captures the phenomenon of clustering around extreme poles income polarization can be closely linked to social exclusion which is relevant for eu social policy because combatting social exclusion is a central element of the lisbon agenda and the europe 2020 strategy rising income polarization has been observed outside europe but within the eu polarization is relatively unexplored this paper provides theoretical insights into this relatively new dimension of income distribution and analyzes trends in income polarization in 28 eu countries and 3 non eu countries using micro data from eu silc over the period 2004 2012 income polarization is rather stable over this period in european countries and europe wide it was rising among the old eu15 countries in the sub period 2004 2008 but declining afterwards the opposite development is witnessed for new member states despite the great recession we find quite stable income polarization in europe

this job is getting old measuring changes in job opportunities using occupational age structure high and low wage occupations are expanding rapidly relative to middle wage occupations in both the u s and the e u we study the reallocation of workers from middle skill occupations towards the tails of the occupational skill distribution by analyzing changes in age structure within and across occupations because occupations typically expand by hiring young workers and contract by curtailing such hiring we posit that growing occupations will get younger while shrinking occupations will get old after verifying this proposition we apply this observation to local labor markets in the u s to test whether markets that were specialized in middle skilled occupations in 1980 saw a differential movement of both older and younger workers into occupations at the tails of the skill distribution over the subsequent 25 years consistent with aggregate trends employment in initially middle skill intensive labor markets hollowed out between 1980 and 2005 employment losses among non college workers in the middle of the occupational skill distribution were almost entirely countered by employment growth in lower tail occupations for college workers employment losses at the middle were offset in roughly equal measures by gains in the upper and lower tails of the occupational skill distribution but gains at the upper tail were almost entirely limited to young college workers consequently older college workers are increasingly found in lower skill lower paying occupations this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the economics of higher education this paper describes the expansion of higher education he in oecd countries and discusses its economic consequences for most governments this expansion has been seen as the silver bullet that improves economic growth and helps tackle problems of inequality however in most countries increasing numbers of graduates are going into jobs that were once done by non graduates raising the concern that the true social returns to he expansion are low because of this it is unsurprising that economists have found it difficult to establish firm links between higher education expansion and economic growth at the same time in some countries he expansion has exacerbated problems of economic and social inequality the paper argues that governments need to take a more realistic view of the role of he consider alternative ways of preparing people for the labour market and at the same time explore more rigorously exactly how the sector is conducting itself

winning isn t everything corruption in sumo wrestling although the theoretical literature on corruption is well developed empirical work in this area has lagged because it has proven difficult to isolate corrupt behavior in the data in this paper we look for evidence of corruption in an unlikely place the highest echelons of japanese sumo wrestling this paper provides strong statistical evidence documenting match rigging in sumo wrestling a non linearity in the incentive structure of promotion leads to gains from trade between wrestlers on the margin for achieving a winning record and their opponents we show that wrestlers win a disproportionate share of the matches when they are on the margin increased effort can not explain the findings winning on the bubble is more frequent when the two competitors have met often in the past success on the bubble tends to rise over the course of a wrestler s career but declines in his last year consistent with the game theoretic predictions wrestlers who are victorious when on the bubble lose more frequently than would be expected the next time they meet that opponent suggesting that part of the payment for throwing a match is future payment in kind systematic differences across wrestling stables suggest that the stables play a role in facilitating the corruption in times of increased media scrutiny the match rigging disappears this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

campaign finance and voter welfare with entrenched incumbents two candidates compete for elective office each candidate has information she would like to reveal to the voters but this requires costly advertising the candidates can solicit contributions from interest groups to finance such advertising these contributions are secured by promises to perform favors for the contributors should the candidate win the election voters understand this and elect the candidate they like best taking into account their expectations about promises to special interests there is an incumbency advantage in fundraising which is sometimes so great that the incumbent faces no serious opposition at all introducing partial public financing through matching funds improves voter welfare in districts that have advertising under the decentralized system while it can reduce welfare in other districts the optimal policy must strike a balance between these two effects

income inequality the consequences of skill upgrading when firms have hierarchical organizational structures during the last three decades most developed countries have experienced increasing income inequality using danish register data from 1992 to 2007 for all private sector employees we confirm that income inequality has increased in denmark we also observe an increase in the relative employment of highly educated individuals as well as differential income growth rates across employee subgroups where in particular managers experienced significant real income progression we use an equilibrium search framework with on the job search to derive the income distribution in this model we can determine the management and education premia we can also show that when our model is exposed to skill upgrading it is capable of producing income dynamics similar to those observed in the danish income distribution jel j3 j6 m5

has the quality of working life improved in the eu 15 between 1995 and 2005 this paper provides a mapping of quality of work and measures its evolution between 1995 and 2005 by using european working conditions surveys with a multilevel modelling we assess the sensitivity of observed trends to composition effects and country effects results suggest a decreasing trend in the quality of work working conditions have deteriorated while work has become more intense and less complex in germany and italy all indicators have worsened while other european countries have more mixed results

the market for congressional votes is timing of contributions everything this study utilizes the timing of campaign contributions to identify whether the objective of political action committees pacs is to influence congressional votes or solely to elect a preferred candidate the results show that pac behavior is consistent with an attempt to purchase congressional votes and to influence elections contributions increase in the weeks surrounding legislative events of importance to pacs and elections the magnitude of increased contributions is examined the article also addresses the lack of legal enforcement mechanisms in vote for contribution agreements it develops hypotheses regarding the timing of contributions as an inexpensive mechanism to assure contractual performance hypotheses are tested regarding pacs incentives to mitigate potential cheating by legislators on such agreements results show that pacs use the timing of contributions as a mechanism to prevent legislators from reneging on vote for contribution trades

efficiency equity and timing of voting mechanisms we compare the behavior of voters under simultaneous and sequential voting rules when voting is costly and information is incomplete in many political institutions ranging from small committees to mass elections voting is sequential which allows some voters to know the choices of earlier voters for a stylized model we generate a variety of predictions about the relative efficiency and participation equity of these two systems which we test using controlled laboratory experiments most of the qualitative predictions are supported by the data but there are significant departures from the predicted equilibrium strategies in both the sequential and the simultaneous voting games we find a tradeoff between information aggregation efficiency and equity in sequential voting a sequential voting rule aggregates information better than simultaneous voting and is more efficient in some information environments but sequential voting is inequitable because early voters bear more participation costs

a model of candidate location when one candidate has a valence advantage that under some fairly weak assumptions for all levels of the valence advantage the advantaged candidate chooses a more moderate position than the disadvantaged candidate empirical studies of congressional elections by fiorina 1973 and ansolabehere snyder and stewart 2001 support this result d owns 1957 seminal work presents a puzzle for scholars of u s elections why do candidates not converge to the median voter one of the best explanations is that the candidates themselves have ideological preferences as calvert 1985 and wittman 1977 1983 have shown when candidates have such preferences and they are sufficiently uncertain about the preferences of the median voter then they do not converge although they may moderate their positions from their ideal point the basic version of the calvert wittman model however does not account for another basic fact of u s elections often one of the candidates has an advantage due to a nonpolicy factor such as incumbency greater campaign funds better name recognition superior charisma superior intelligence and so on stokes has dubbed such factors valence factors and he has noted their importance in u s elections stokes 1963 1992 1 in this article i extend the basic calvert wittman model by giving one candidate a valence advantage over the other i show that if the valence characteristics of the candidates are approximately equal then when a candidate s valence advantage increases this causes her to move toward the

interest groups campaign contributions and probabilistic voting this essay develops a simple model to analyze the impact of campaign contributions on electoral policy decisions of candidates for office interest groups here are firms that select contributions under the assumption that candidates policies and opposing groups donations remain unaltered candidates however recognize that their policy choices affect contributions campaign contributions are used by candidates to affect policy oriented voters perceptions of candidates positions in this framework the introduction of campaign contributions may affect candidates electoral policies and if they do then they benefit surely exactly one of the two interest groups

using repeat challengers to estimate the effect of campaign spending on election outcomes in the u s house previous studies of congressional spending have typically found a large positive effect of challenger spending but little evidence for effects of incumbent spending those studies however do not adequately control for inherent differences in vote getting ability across candidates high quality challengers are likely to receive a high fraction of the vote and have high campaign expenditures even if campaign spending has no impact on election outcomes to avoid that bias this paper examines elections in which the same two candidates face one another on more than one occasion differencing eliminates the influence of any fixed candidate or district attributes estimates of the effects of challenger spending are an order of magnitude below those of previous studies campaign spending has an extremely small impact on election outcomes regardless of who does the spending campaign spending limits appear socially desirable but public financing of campaigns does not

redistribution and market efficiency an experimental study abstract we study the interaction between competitive markets and income redistribution that reallocates unequal pre tax market incomes away from the rich to the poor majority in one setup participants earn their income by trading in a double auction da with exogenous zero or full redistribution in another setup after trading they vote on redistributive tax policies in a majoritarian election with two competing candidates this results in virtually full redistribution even when participants have the opportunity to influence taxes by transferring money to the candidates we find that the high redistribution reduces trading efficiency but not as much as predicted if market participants trade randomly this is because rather than capitulating to the much lower trading incentives many participants respond to redistribution by asking and bidding more conservatively in the da and in this way help to prevent further efficiency losses

job polarization job tasks and the role of firms using detailed swedish matched employer employee data i show evidence of within firm job polarization applying a decomposition framework i find that both within firm and between firm components are important for overall job polarization results also indicate that the degree of routineness is the most important explanation for the observed within firm pattern bringing the analysis down to the firm level seems to confirm the important role played by routine biased technological change

robots computers and the gender wage gap abstract we analyze the effects of two automation technologies industrial robots and computing equipment on the gender wage gap in us local labor markets between 1990 and 2015 we find distinct impact of robot and computer capital an increase in robots decreases male wage more than female wage whereas an increase in computers reduces female wage more than male wage according to our estimates one additional unit of robot per thousand workers reduces gender wage gap by 0 3 log points and by contrast an increase in computer capital by one million dollars per thousand workers increases gender wage gap by 4 1 log points

fighting corruption to improve schooling evidence from a newspaper campaign in uganda what are the most effective ways to increase primary school enrollment and student learning we argue that innovations in governance of social services may yield the highest return since social service delivery in developing countries is often plagued by inefficiencies and corruption we illustrate this by using data from an unusual policy experiment a newspaper campaign in uganda aimed at reducing capture of public funds by providing schools parents with information to monitor local officials handling of a large education grant program the campaign was highly successful and the reduction in capture had a positive effect on enrollment and student learning jel d73 i22 o12

job polarization an historical perspective this paper uses historical labour market data for belgium for the period 1846 2011 to illustrate how the employment impacts of the ongoing digital revolution after 1980 compare to those of the second industrial revolution before 1980 our analyses show that the period 1846 1947 was characterized by economy wide skill upgrading due to an increase in the demand for skilled relative to unskilled workers because of skill biased technological change sbtc the period 1947 81 is characterized by particularly high labour market turbulence in part due to a gradual switch from economy wide skill upgrading to job polarization consequently the impact of the ongoing digital revolution on labour markets after 1980 is not uniquely characterized by exceptionally high labour market turbulence but by the nature of changes in the composition of jobs namely a process of job polarization to explain job polarization the paper discusses the hypothesis of routine biased technological change rbtc that has recently emerged in the academic literature

the shifting scully curve international evidence from 1871 to 2016 scully curves estimating growth maximizing public sector size are constructed using panel data covering 17 industrialized nations from 1870 2016 results suggest that government expenditure to gdp

electoral competition and special interest politics have fixed positions on some issues but vary their positions on others in order to attract votes and campaign contributions in this context we examine whether special interest groups are governed by an electoral motive or an influence in their campaign giving and how their contributions affect the equilibrium platforms we show that each party is induced to behave as if it were maximizing a weighted sum of the aggregate welfares of informed voters and members of special interest groups the party that is expected to win a majority of seats caters more to the special interests

the greener the better job creation effects of environmentally friendly technological change this article investigates the link between environment related innovation and job creation at firm level employing italian data on 4507 manufacturing firms matched with patent records for the period 2001 2008 we test whether green innovation measured by the number of environment related patents has a positive effect on long run employment growth that is specific with respect to non environmental innovation results show a strong positive impact of green innovation on long run job creation substantially bigger than the effect of other innovations our findings are robust to a number of additional tests including controls for patents quality and cost differential between generic and green innovation and endogeneity

how do social networks contribute to wage inequality insights from an agent based analysis based on a closed agent based macroeconomic simulation model eurace unibi this article analyzes whether the density of social networks influences via referrals the residual wage inequality in different skill groups it is shown that an increase in network density leads to a polarization of firms and a concentration of workers with high specific skills at firms with high productivities and wages thereby enlarging within group wage inequality but not between group wage inequality

the effects of campaign spending in house elections new evidence for old arguments the question of how campaign spending affects election results remains open because the simultaneity problem has proven so intractable green and krasno s 1988 recent attempt to solve the problem and to demonstrate that marginal returns on spending are as great for incumbents as for challengers again comes up short a panel feature of the abc newslwashington post congressional district poll conducted during the 1986 elections offers a fresh perspective on the question analysis of changes in voting intentions during the final six weeks of the campaign shows that as the tainted ols studies have invariably suggested the amount spent by the challenger is far more important in accounting for voter s decisions than is the amount spent by the incumbent

the changing nature of gender selection into employment europe over the great recession the aim of this paper is to evaluate the role played by selectivity issues induced by nonemployment in explaining gender wage gap patterns in the eu since the onset of the great recession we show that male selection into the labour market traditionally disregarded has increased this is particularly the case in peripheral european countries where dramatic drops in male unskilled jobs have taken place during the crisis as regards female selection traditionally positive we document mixed findings while it has declined in some countries as a result of increasing female lfp due to an added worker effect it has become even more positive in other countries this is due to adverse labour demand shifts in industries which are intensive in temporary work where women are over represented these adverse shifts may have more than offset the rise in unskilled female labour supply

the political resource curse this paper studies the effect of additional government revenues on political corruption and on the quality of politicians both with theory and data the theory is based on a political agency model with career concerns and endogenous entry of candidates the data refer to brazil where federal transfers to municipal governments change exogenously at given population thresholds allowing us to implement a regression discontinuity design the empirical evidence shows that larger transfers increase observed corruption and reduce the average education of candidates for mayor these and other more specific empirical results are in line with the predictions of the theory jel d72 d73 h77 o17 o18

spatial changes in labour market inequality abstract we study spatial changes in labour market inequality for us states and msas using census and american community survey data between 1980 and 2010 we report evidence of significant spatial variations in education employment shares and in the college wage premium for us states and msas and show that the pattern of shifts through time has resulted in increased spatial inequality because relative supply of college versus high school educated workers has risen faster at the spatial level in places with higher initial supply levels we also report a strong persistence and increased inequality of spatial relative demand bigger relative demand increases are observed in more technologically advanced states that have experienced faster increases in r d and computer usage and in states where union decline has been fastest finally we show the increased concentration of more educated workers into particular spatial locations and rising spatial wage inequality are important features of labour market polarization as they have resulted in faster employment growth in high skill occupations but also in a higher demand for low wage workers in low skill occupations overall our spatial analysis complements research findings from labour economics on wage inequality trends and from urban economics on agglomeration effects connected to education and technology

political competition with campaign contributions and informative advertising this paper presents a theory of political competition with campaign contributions and informative political advertising policy motivated parties compete by selecting candidates and interest groups provide contributions to enhance the electoral prospects of like minded candidates contributions are used to finance advertising campaigns that provide voters with information about candidates ideologies voters update their beliefs rationally given the information they have received the paper uses the theory to analyze the welfare economics of contribution limits such limits are shown to redistribute welfare from ordinary citizens to members of interest groups jel d72 h40

electoral accountability and corruption evidence from the audits of local governments we show that political institutions affect corruption levels we use audit reports in brazil to construct new measures of political cor ruption in local governments and test whether electoral account ability affects the corruption practices of incumbent politicians we find significantly less corruption in municipalities where mayors can get reelected mayors with reelection incentives misappropriate 27 percent fewer resources than mayors without reelection incentives these effects are more pronounced among municipalities with less access to information and where the likelihood of judicial punish ment is lower overall our findings suggest that electoral rules that enhance political accountability play a crucial role in constraining politician s corrupt behavior jel d72 k42 017

campaign advertising and voter welfare this paper investigates the role of campaign advertising and the opportunity of legal restrictions on it an electoral race is modeled as a signalling game with three classes of players many voters two candidates and one interest group the group has non verifiable insider information on the candidates quality and on the basis of this information offers a contribution to each candidate in exchange for a favorable policy position candidates spend the contributions they receive on non directly informative advertising this paper shows that 1 a separating equilibrium exists in which the group contributes to a candidate only if the insider information about that candidate is positive 2 although voters are fully rational a ban on campaign advertising can be welfare improving and 3 split contributions may arise in equilibrium and if they arise too often they are detrimental to voters

lifetime earnings inequality in germany we employ german social security records to investigate intragenerational lifetime earnings inequality and mobility of yearly earnings for 35 cohorts starting with the birth year 1935 our main result is a striking secular rise of intragenerational inequality in lifetime earnings west german men born in the early 1960s are likely to experience about 85 more lifetime inequality than their fathers in contrast both short term and long term intragenerational mobility are stable longer unemployment spells of workers at the bottom of the distribution of younger cohorts contribute to explaining 20 40 of the overall increase in lifetime earnings inequality

disappearing routine jobs who how and why abstract we study the deterioration of employment in middle wage routine occupations in the united states in the last 35 years the decline is primarily driven by changes in the propensity to work in routine jobs for individuals from a small set of demographic groups these same groups account for a substantial fraction of both the increase in non employment and employment in low wage non routine manual occupations observed during the same period we analyze a general neoclassical model of the labor market featuring endogenous participation and occupation choice in response to an increase in automation technology the framework embodies a tradeoff between reallocating employment across occupations and reallocation of workers towards non employment quantitatively we find that this standard model accounts for a relatively small portion of the joint decline in routine employment and associated rise in non routine manual employment and non employment

contribution limits and transparency in a campaign finance experiment we experimentally compare electoral outcomes when donor contribution limits are varied the effect of contribution limits is studied under three levels of transparency one where donors preferences and donations are unobserved by the candidate and public one where they are observed by the candidate but not the public and one where they are observed by all we find that a combination of stricter contribution limits and full transparency is most successful at limiting donors influence on policy choice we also find that stricter contribution limits improve social welfare in some treatments we further find that the partial and no anonymity settings lead to centrist bias whereby implemented policies on average are more centrist than the candidate s preferences in most treatments

campaign spending with office seeking politicians rational voters and multiple lobbies abstract i introduce a microfounded model of campaign finance with office seeking politicians a continuum of voters and a large number of heterogeneous lobbies lobbies make contributions to politicians according to a common agency framework politicians use contributions to finance their electoral expenditures voters are not fooled by electoral expenditures they are influenced in a way that is consistent with the equilibrium behavior of lobbies and politicians the model is used to i determine the relation between campaign spending and the deviation from the median voter s preferred policy ii show the informational value of lobbies contributions iii evaluate the welfare implications of restricting campaign spending and iv interpret the empirical finding that campaign expenditures have a very low effect on election outcome although in equilibrium advertising provides voters with useful information under reasonable parameter values a ban on campaign contributions makes the median voter better off journal of economic literature classification numbers d72 d82 m37

strategic politicians and unresponsive voters t0 resolve the paradoxical finding that economic conditions and presidential popularity powerfully relate to quadrennial movement in the house vote but explain little individual voting variation jacobson and kernell have advanced their strategic politicians model of midterm elections purportedly the early year political environment helps determine how many of a party s strong potential contenders risk challenging incumbents voters in turn respond to the quality of candidates before them in november and thus indirectly reward the party favored by this early year environment despite its current prominence however the theory does not stand up to empirical investigation a time series equation of midterm outcomes regressed on early year national conditions does not fare particularly well when contrasted with comparable equations assuming direct effects voting furthermore challenger quality has only a weak influence on individual voters subordinate in fact to the effects of economic attitudes and presidential evaluations

electoral competition with informed and uninformed voters i present a model of electoral competition in which candidates raise campaign contributions by choosing policies that benefit interest groups and then expend those contributions to influence voters who are uninformed about the policies informed voters however vote based on those policies so candidates face a trade off between choosing a policy to generate funds to attract the uninformed vote and choosing a policy to attract the informed vote electoral equilibria are characterized for two categories of policies particularistic and collective in the case of particularistic policies the equilibrium policies of the candidates are separated if the proportion of uninformed voters is sufficiently high and the degree of separation is an increasing function of that proportion the model is extended to include the public financing of elections and incumbency advantages for the case of collective policies the candidates locate at the median of the ideal points of the informed voters and contributions are zero

the geography of inequality difference and determinants of wage and income inequality across us metros florida r and mellander c the geography of inequality difference and determinants of wage and income inequality across us metros regional studies this paper examines the geographic variation in wage inequality and income inequality across us metros the findings indicate that the two are quite different wage inequality is closely associated with skills human capital technology and metro size in line with the literature but these factors are only weakly associated with income inequality furthermore wage inequality explains only 15 of income inequality across metros income inequality is more closely associated with unionization race and poverty no relationship is found between income inequality and average incomes and only a modest relationship between it and the percentage of high income households

clientelism and vote buying lessons from field experiments in african elections electoral clientelism and vote buying are widely perceived as major obstacles to economic development this is because they may limit the provision of public goods in this paper we review the literature on clientelism and vote buying and propose the use of field experiments to evaluate empirically the consequences of these phenomena we provide an overview discuss implementation and interpret the main results of recent field experiments conducted by the authors in west african countries clientelism and vote buying seem to be effective and to enjoy widespread electoral support the results suggest that increased access to information and political participation by women may limit clientelism in addition voter education campaigns may undermine the effects of vote buying on voting behaviour we argue that our findings may inform the design of development aid interventions as a way effectively to increase public good political accountability we also discuss directions for fruitful future research copyright 2009 oxford university press