an alternative approach to estimate the wage returns to private sector training summary this paper follows an alternative approach to identify the wage effects of private sector training the idea is to narrow down the comparison group by only taking into consideration the workers who wanted to participate in training but did not do so because of some random event this makes the comparison group increasingly similar to the group of participants in terms of observed individual characteristics and the characteristics of planned training events at the same time the point estimate of the average return to training consistently drops from a large and significant return to a point estimate close to zero copyright 2008 john wiley sons ltd

testing for asymmetric information in insurance markets the first goal of this paper is to provide a simple and general test of the presence of asymmetric information in contractual relationships within a competitive context we also argue that insurance data are particularly well suited to such empirical investigations to illustrate this claim we use data on contracts and accidents to investigate the extent of asymmetric information in the french market for automobile insurance using various parametric and nonparametric methods we find no evidence for the presence of asymmetric information in this market

incentives productivity and labor contracts the relationship between age earnings profiles and worker incentives is examined by contrasting wage and salary workers with the self employed it is argued that the steepness of wage and salary workers age earnings profiles reflects the desire to provide work incentives to those workers since self employed workers do not face this agency problem they are used as a benchmark to gauge productivity empirical support of the proposition is provided and the effects of human capital accumulation are separated empirically from incentive effects the most important conclusion is that under some strong assumptions most of the slope in age earnings profiles is accounted for by the desire to provide incentives rather than by on the job training

informational asymmetries strategic behavior and industrial organization one of the most active and exciting areas of economic research over the last several years has been the use of noncooperative games of incomplete information to model industrial competition this work has yielded not only a remarkable number of papers but also several new insights on and explanations of fundamentally important issues the purpose of this paper is to attempt an appreciation and evaluation of this work because most of our individual and joint work since about 1979 has been in this mode it will come as no surprise that we are proponents of this line of research however there are several questions and potential problems that we see as arising in connection with this methodology and we will attempt to address these first a disclaimer we are not attempting a survey of the applications of asymmetric information games aig to industrial organization although we will refer in a highly selective fashion to a number of prominent strands in this literature in particular where any references are provided at all they are typically only to the earliest contributions to a subject even more we do not deal with work in which informational asymmetries are important but the analysis is not game theoretic for example search and price dispersion or the early work on the lemons problem and on moral hazard and adverse selection in insurance markets or with game theoretic treatments that assume complete information i aig methods and applications

activity based pricing in a monopoly in this article i study the interaction between cost accounting systems and pricing decisions in a setting where a monopolist sells a base product and related support services to customers whose preference for support services is known only to them i consider two pricing mechanisms activity based pricing abp and traditional pricing and two cost accounting systems activity based costing abc and traditional costing for support services under traditional pricing only the base product is priced whereas support services are provided free because detailed cost driver volume information on the consumption of support services by each customer is unavailable under abp customers pay based on the quantities consumed of both the base product and the support services because detailed cost driver volume information is available for each customer likewise under traditional costing for support services the firm makes pricing decisions on cost signals that are noisier than they are under abc i compare the equilibrium quantities of the base product and support services sold the information rent paid to the customers and the expected profits of the monopolist under all four combinations of cost driver volume and cost driver rate information i show that abp helps reduce control problems such as moral hazard and adverse selection problems for the supplier and increases the supplier s ability to engage in price discrimination i show that firms are more likely to adopt abp when their customer base is more diverse their customer support costs are more uncertain their costing system has lower measurement error and the variable costs of providing customer support are higher firms adopt abc when their cost driver rates for support services under traditional costing are noisier measures of actual costs relative to their cost driver rates under abc and when the actual costs of support services are inherently uncertain i also show that cost driver rate information and cost driver volume information for support services are complements although the prior literature views abc and activity based management abm as facilitating better decision making i show that abc and abp a form of abm are useful tools for addressing control problems in supply chains

no arbitrage near cointegrated var p term structure models term premia and gdp growth abstract the recent macro finance literature does not agree either about the empirical properties of the expectation part and of the term premium on long term bonds or about the importance or even the direction of the relationship between the term premium and future economic activity this paper proposes a two step approach to handle both problems first in a var setting we extract a reliable measure of the term premium by means of averaging estimator techniques aiming at optimally solving prediction problems when highly persistent processes are present and thus providing a so called near cointegrated var p approach second we analyze the dynamic response of gdp to shocks to the term premium by using the new information response function concept as far as the first problem is concerned we find that the ncvar based term premium measure is rather stable and counter cyclical as suggested by interest rates survey based estimation of yield curve models and by its risk compensation role regarding the second problem we find that an increase in the long term spread caused by the term premium induces two effects on future economic activity the impact is negative for short horizons less than 1 year whereas it is positive for longer ones

tips from tips the informational content of treasury inflation protected security prices treasury inflation protected securities tips are frequently thought of as risk free real bonds using no arbitrage term structure models we show that tips yields exceeded risk free real yields by as much as 100 basis points when tips were first issued and up to 300 basis points during the 2007 2008 financial crisis this spread predominantly reflects the poorer liquidity of tips relative to nominal treasury securities other factors including the indexation lag and the embedded deflation protection in tips play a much smaller role ignoring this spread also significantly distorts the informational content of tips break even inflation a widely used proxy for expected inflation

modelling sovereign credit spreads with international macro factors the case of brazil 1998 2009 abstract this paper develops a macro finance model of the brazilian economy and its sovereign debt markets that allows for domestic and international macroeconomic influences as well as swings in investor confidence it finds significant evidence of common trends in the us and brazilian economies and bond markets as well as spillover effects from us inflation and business cycles to the brazilian economy the us fed funds rate influences brazilian sovereign spreads as do brazilian inflation and policy rates the brazilian confidence factor dominates the behavior of the spreads during periods of crisis and we find that it also has a powerful effect on the level and volatility of macroeconomic variables these results suggest that the macro finance approach could throw light upon the behavior of other economies that are troubled by sovereign risk

uk term structure decompositions at the zero lower bound this paper employs a zero lower bound zlb consistent shadow rate model to decompose uk nominal yields into expectation and term premium components compared to a standard affine term structure model it performs relatively better in a zlb setting by capturing the stylized facts of the yield curve the zlb model is then exploited to estimate inflation expectations and risk premiums this entails jointly pricing and decomposing nominal and real uk yields we find evidence that medium and long term inflation expectations are contained within narrower bounds since the early 1990s suggesting monetary policy credibility improved after the introduction of inflation targeting

inflation risk and international asset returns abstract we show that inflation risk is priced in international asset returns we analyze inflation risk in a framework that encompasses the international capital asset pricing model icapm of adler and dumas 1983 in contrast to the extant empirical literature on the icapm we relax the assumption that inflation rates are constant we estimate and test a conditional version of the model for the g5 countries france germany japan the uk and the us over the period 1975 1998 and find evidence of statistically and economically significant prices of inflation risk in addition to priced nominal exchange rate risk our results imply a rejection of the restrictions imposed by the icapm in an extension of our analysis to 2003 we show that even after the termination of nominal exchange rate fluctuations in the euro area in 1999 differences in inflation rates across countries entail non trivial real exchange rate risk premia

distinguished fellow mincering labor economics jacob mincer has helped set the research agenda and professional style in labor economics for over 30 years his research helped uncover the empirical content of human capital theory where he used those ideas to study the determinants of earnings and the sources and nature of earnings inequality he was also a pioneer in studying labor force participation decisions of married women for the past decade jacob has set his characteristic stamp on the empirical study of job mobility the following brief survey is meant to convey some of the flavor of jacob mincer s work and why it has been so influential in labor economics

job matching and on the job training conventional analysis predicts that workers pay part of their on the job training costs by accepting a lower starting wage and subsequently realize a return to this investment in the form of greater wage growth missing from the conventional treatment of on the job training is a discussion of the process by which heterogeneous workers are matched to jobs requiring varying amounts of training this matching process constitutes a key feature of the on the job training model presented in this article and tested with a unique data set containing extensive information concerning on the job training employer search wages and wage and productivity growth

large firms and within firm occupational reallocation abstract this paper considers the equilibrium interaction between within firm and across firm reallocation in the presence of labor market frictions while a sizable literature has investigated frictional labor markets it has ignored within firm mobility nonetheless every year a sizable fraction of workers switch occupations without changing firms employees in large firms can sample from a larger selection and across firm mobility is replaced by within firm mobility bringing together within and across firm reallocation along with labor market frictions naturally accounts for the observed differences in worker flows and wages across firms of different sizes

the role of no arbitrage on forecasting lessons from a parametric term structure model abstract parametric term structure models have been successfully applied to numerous problems in fixed income markets including pricing hedging managing risk as well as to the study of monetary policy implications in turn dynamic term structure models equipped with stronger economic structure have been mainly adopted to price derivatives and explain empirical stylized facts in this paper we combine flavors of those two classes of models to test whether no arbitrage affects forecasting we construct cross sectional allowing arbitrages and arbitrage free versions of a parametric polynomial model to analyze how well they predict out of sample interest rates based on us treasury yield data we find that no arbitrage restrictions significantly improve forecasts arbitrage free versions achieve overall smaller biases and root mean square errors for most maturities and forecasting horizons furthermore a decomposition of forecasts into forward rates and holding return premia indicates that the superior performance of no arbitrage versions is due to a better identification of bond risk premium

extracting inflation expectations and inflation risk premia from the term structure a joint model of the uk nominal and real yield curves abstract this paper analyses the uk interest rate term structure over the period since october 1992 when the united kingdom adopted an explicit inflation target using an affine term structure model estimated using both government bond yields and survey data the model imposes no arbitrage restrictions across nominal and real yields which enables interest rates to be decomposed into expected real policy rates expected inflation real term premia and inflation risk premia the model is used to shed light on major developments over the period including the impact of bank of england independence and the low real bond yield conundrum

on the effects of schooling vintage on experience earnings profiles theory and evidence abstract in this paper a distinction is made between human capital depreciation related to a worker s aging and depreciation due to the obsolescence of the worker s education schooling specific obsolescence of human capital is incorporated in the mincerian model of earnings and it is shown how this obsolescence affects the worker s earnings profile using the israeli 1983 census we show that for high tech oriented industries for which obsolescence is relatively important obsolescence effects are more significant than for low tech oriented industries and consequently the experience earnings peak falls faster with increasing education in the former

learning by doing and investment in training a synthesis of two rival models of the life cycle this paper provides a theoretical synthesis of recent discussions of learning by doing and investment in training as alternative forms of human capital accumulation these theoretical notions relate to essentially different phenomena in particular pace becker and mincer investment in training does not completely encompass learning by doing the paper then develops a model in which human capital accumulation occurs via both training and learning by doing the joint training learning model since it is more general then pure models in which all accumulation occurs via either training or learning avoids certain restrictive and seemingly implausible implications of either kind of pure model however the joint model also has implications that while compatible with stylized facts about the life cycle are sharper than those of either kind of pure model for example the joint model implies that market time and earnings must rise early in the life cycle while neither pure model without corners does so finally the notion of learning by doing provides a rationale for an empirical finding that has recently received attention to the effect that the rate of depreciation of human capital is not constant but rather depends on the extent to which it is used in market activities

occupational mobility and the returns to training the literature on the returns to training has pointed out that immediately following a training episode wages of participants in employer sponsored training increase substantially while wages of participants in government sponsored training hardly change we argue that there is a potential selection issue most of the government sponsored trainees are occupation switchers while most participants in employer sponsored training are occupation stayers an occupational switch involves a substantial destruction of human capital and once we account for the associated decline in wages we find a large positive impact of both employer and government sponsored training on workers human capital mobilite professionnelle et benefices des formations les etudes ayant trait aux benefices conferes par les formations professionnelles montrent que lorsque ces dernieres sont parrainees par l employeur le salaire des participants augmente significativement a l issue de leur formation en revanche lorsqu elles sont parrainees par le gouvernement le salaire des participants n evolue presque pas nous affirmons qu il s agit la d un probleme de selection potentiel dans le cadre des formations parrainees par le gouvernement la plupart des participants sont tres mobiles en emploi tandis que dans le cadre des formations parrainees par l employeur les participants sont tres stables en emploi une plus grande mobilite professionnelle genere une destruction importante du capital humain et des lors que l on tient compte de la baisse concomitante des salaires nous estimons que les formations parrainees a la fois par l etat et l employeur ont une incidence tres positive sur le capital humain des employes

simultaneous and sequential price competition in heterogeneous duopoly markets experimental evidence abstract we investigate simultaneous and sequential price competition in duoply markets with differentiated products and random matching of symmetric firms we find that second movers gain from the sequential structure in comparison to simultaneous move markets whereas first movers do not as predicted by the theory there is a significant first mover disadvantage in the sequential game finally we report the results of control treatments varying the matching scheme and the mode of eliciting choices strategy method vs standard sequential play

first mover disadvantages with private information we consider a leader follower game with output quantities as strategies so as to demonstrate the reduced advantages of the stackleberg leader in a stochastic environment with private information at the equilibrium the strategy of the leader reveals to the follower information about the demand in an attempt to signal low demand the leader contracts his output nevertheless unless the leader s information is infinitely noisy the follower can always correctly infer his signal we find a wide range of parameter values over which the follower is better off compared to the leader

why are excess returns on china s treasury bonds so predictable the role of the monetary system abstract it is well documented that the time varying bond excess returns can be explained by predetermined variables such as information in the term structure and macro economic variables recent studies suggest that demand and supply of bonds influence bond excess returns we extend the literature and find that monetary system attributes affect return dynamics in the bond market by introducing a theoretical model to forecast excess returns on treasury bonds in the context of china s unique monetary system this paper attributes the predicted components of bond excess returns mainly to the inflexible term structures of official interest rates set by china s central bank

age seniority and labour costs lessons from the finnish it revolution the bad labour market performance of the workforce over 50 indicates that an aged workforce is often a burden for firms our paper seeks to investigate whether and why this is the case by providing evidence on the relation between age seniority and experience on the one hand and the main components of labour costs namely productivity and wages on the other for a sample of plants in three manufacturing industries forest industrial machinery and electronics in finland during the it revolution in the 1990s in average industries those not undergoing major technological shocks productivity and wages keep rising almost indefinitely with the accumulation of either seniority in the forest industry or experience in the industry producing industrial machinery in these industries the skill depreciation often associated with higher seniority beyond a certain threshold does not seemingly raise labour costs in electronics instead the seniority productivity profile shows a positive relation first and then becomes negative as one looks at plants with higher average seniority this body of evidence is consistent with the idea that fast technical change brings about accelerated skill depreciation of senior workers we cannot rule out however that our correlations are also simultaneously produced by worker movements across plants the seniority earnings profile in electronics is instead rather similar to that observed for the other industries a likely symptom of the prevailing finnish wage bargaining institutions which tend to make seniority one essential element of wage determination in the end seniority matters for labour costs not age as such but only in high tech industries not in the economy at large this is well tuned with previous research on gross flows of workers and jobs in the us and other oecd countries which unveiled the productivity driving role of resource reallocation or lack thereof between plants to improve the employability of the elderly at times of fast technical change public policy should thus divert resources away from preserving existing jobs and lend more attention to the retraining of old workers to ease their reallocation away from less productive plants or plants where they have become less productive into new jobs francesco daveri and mika maliranta

the pre programme earnings dip and the determinants of participation in a social programme implications for simple programme evaluation strategies the key to estimating the impact of a programme is constructing the counterfactual outcome representing what would have happened in its absence this problem becomes more complicated when agents such as individuals firms or local governments self select into the programme rather than being exogenously assigned to it this paper uses data from a major social experiment to identify what would have happened to the earnings of self selected participants in a job training programme had they not participated in it we investigate the implications of these earnings patterns for the validity of widely used before after and difference in differences estimators

learning and earning do multiple training events pay a decade of evidence from a cohort of young british men this paper estimates the impact of work related training on wage growth over the period 1981 91 using longitudinal data from the national child development study a cohort of young men aged 23 in 1981 a hurdle negbin model is used to control for training endogeneity we find that training incidence has a significant positive effect on wage growth we also find that young men with a higher level of education are not only more likely to be trained but are also more likely to experience substantially higher wage growth as a result

occupational and job mobility in the us we propose a new methodology to measure worker mobility across occupations and jobs in the us building on the limited longitudinal dimension of monthly cps data for the period 1979 2006 we find that about 3 5 of male workers employed in two consecutive months report different three digit occupations this rate is procyclical mildly rising in the 1980s and falling after 1995 we also revise upward current estimates of aggregate job to job mobility since 1994 from 2 7 to 3 2 of employment per month despite extreme similarity of average levels and time series behavior occupational and job mobility are only weakly correlated

the determinants of work related training in britain in 1995 and the implications of employer size this study uses a familiar set of variables to characterize the determinants of training based around individual characteristics qualifications and workplace characteristics however it goes further by using data drawn from a recent quarter of the uk labour force survey and thus contains an up to date and extensive set of core variables the dependent variable used covers three subgroups those who have never been offered training by their current employer those who have been offered but did not receive training in the last three months and those workers who received training within the last three months the hypothesis that large employers not only provide more work related training but that they are also more willing to train workers with characteristics that indicate a lower probability of obtaining a return on any investment outlay is tested this was confirmed especially for male workers along with a range of results that mostly accord with previous studies into the determinants of uk em

macroeconomic sources of risk in the term structure we develop a new way of modeling time variation in term premia based on the stochastic discount factor model of asset pricing the joint distribution of excess u s bond returns of different maturity and the observable fundamental macroeconomic factors is modeled using multivariate garch with conditional covariances in the mean to capture the term premia by testing the assumption of no arbitrage we derive a specification test of our model we estimate the contribution made to the term premia at different maturities through real and nominal sources of risk from the estimated term premia we recover the term structure of interest rates and examine how it varies through time finally we examine whether the reported failures of the rational expectations hypothesis can be attributed to an omitted time varying term premium

evaluating the effect of tax deductions on training dutch employers can claim an extra tax deduction when they train employees older than age 40 this discontinuity in a firm s training cost is exploited to identify the tax deduction s effects on training participation and of training participation on wages the results show that the training rate of workers just above age 40 is 15 20 higher than that of workers just below age 40 this difference mainly results from the postponement of training and is not a stimulating effect of the measure the two stage least squares estimate of the wage effect of training is not statistically different from zero

a formulation of the earnings function using the concept of occupational investment standard models of income determination specify income to be a function of two variables that measure postschool investment the years of labor market experience and the years of employer tenure this investigation develops a better proxy for general human capital investments by hypothesizing that the intensity of investment varies by occupation and that a proportion of the occupational skills are transferable with occupational change after developing exogenous measures of these features the occupational investment variable is calculated for the young men of the national longitudinal survey empirical work demonstrates that occupational investment is a strong determinant of income far superior to the experience variable

on real interest rate dynamics and regime switching abstract we find evidence of regime switching dynamics in the usa and the uk real interest rates over the period 1881 2003 for the uk there is a regime in which the real interest rate displays a relatively stronger mean reversion and a regime in which it displays a relatively weaker mean reversion the former regime is characterized by a relatively larger error in the estimation of the reversion parameter and higher volatility for the usa the two regimes differ in volatility the probability of transition from one regime to another is found to be significantly related to the inflation rate regime and to the political regime the results highlight the importance of regime switching in the dynamics of the real interest rate as well as the role of inflation and political regimes in explaining this switching

job matching with finite horizon and risk aversion the consequences of introducing risk averse workers with a known finite retirement age into a simple job matching framework are explored the job matching model includes two jobs in the primary job workers and firms learn about the worker s productivity by observing his output over time in the secondary job productivity of any worker is known with certainty at the outset workers start off in the primary job but based on their observed performance may choose to switch to the secondary job the model is developed in two stages first the finite retirement age is introduced while the usual assumption of risk neutral workers is retained in this model it is shown that all workers who achieve at least a certain cumulative output record denoted r by a certain age denoted t will thereafter remain in the primary job until retirement those who do not achieve r by age t switch to the secondary job at or before age t and remain there second risk aversion is introduced along with finite retireme

features of experimentally observed bounded rationality abstract on the basis of experimental evidence reported in the literature the paper draws conclusions about the bounded rationality exhibited by human economic behaviour among the topics discussed are presentation effects caused by superficial analysis strategic reasoning and strategy construction based on reciprocity and fairness avoidance of circular concepts in step by step strategic reasoning ex post rationality and learning direction theory presence of both adaptive and analytic approaches to repeated decision tasks and the absence of quantitative expectations and optimization in typical repeated game strategies

the determinants and labour market effects of lifelong learning despite the policy importance of lifelong learning there is very little hard evidence from the uk on a who undertakes lifelong learning and why and b the economic benefits of lifelong learning this paper uses a rich longitudinal panel data set to look at key factors that determine whether someone undertakes lifelong learning and then models the effect of the different qualifications acquired via lifelong learning on individuals economic outcomes namely wages and the likelihood of being employed those who left school with o level qualifications or above were much more likely to undertake lifelong learning undertaking one episode of lifelong learning also increased the probability of undertaking more lifelong learning we found little evidence of positive wage effects from lifelong learning however males who left school with only low level qualifications do earn substantially more if they undertake a degree via lifelong learning we also found important positive employment effects from lifelong

the wage effects of training in portugal differences across skill groups genders sectors and training types this article investigates the determinants and wage effects of training in portugal in a first stage we show that there are considerable differences in training participation across groups of workers with elder and low educated individuals participating substantially less in a second stage we show that training has a positive and significant impact on wages the estimated wage return is about 30 for men and 38 for women discriminating between levels of education and working experience and the public and private sector reveals important differences across categories of workers we find that women low educated workers and workers with long working experience earn larger returns from training the average effect of training is similar in the private sector and the public sector however differences across experience groups are larger in the private sector while differences across education groups are larger in the public sector we use three alternative classifications of training activities and f

information sharing and tacit collusion in laboratory duopoly markets i introduction economists have long believed that enhanced information about demand conditions or rival actions can play an important role in facilitating collusion for example because it simplifies detection of chiselers stigler 1964 an extensive theoretical literature examines the incentives for non cooperative firms to share information through a trade association about some uncertain parameter see sakai 1990 1991 for a survey firms in these models may cooperate by sharing information in the trade association even though most authors assume that the firms choose non cooperative strategies in the product market under these conditions vives 1984 shows that with demand uncertainty substitute goods and quantity competition each firm s dominant strategy is to conceal information from its rivals therefore under these conditions non cooperative firms will not find it in their interests to form an information sharing arrangement such as a trade association because non cooperative firms should not wish to share information clarke 1983 392 concludes that information pooling mechanisms like trade associations can be considered prima facie evidence that firms are illegally cooperating to restrict output however kirby 1988 shows that non cooperative firms will want to share information if cost functions are sufficiently quadratic moreover hviid 1989 demonstrates that non cooperative firms will prefer to share information if they are sufficiently risk averse these models typically assume that firms interact once and identify the static subgame perfect nash equilibrium ne of the two stage information sharing game this is sensible when the goal is to focus on a narrow set of non cooperative equilibria because the set of non cooperative equilibria becomes very large in these models in the more complex repeated game however repeated interaction between competing firms seems more relevant for empirical applications especially for providing policy insight for trade associations that permit long term interactions among firms unfortunately empirical work in this area based on field data is challenging because the information different decision makers possess and the corresponding residual uncertainty they face are typically difficult to identify this paper uses a different empirical approach we use a series of laboratory duopoly markets to examine the impact of demand uncertainty on sellers output choices specifically we examine the importance of information sharing in facilitating tacit collusion under conditions of demand uncertainty 1 our experiment employs repeated interaction between fixed pairs of subjects trading the ability to directly test the static models for a more realistic policy relevant study of outcomes in the repeated game 2 our results indicate the extent to which results from static theory carry over to the repeated environment and can help guide future theory for dynamic oligopoly models of information sharing the experiment includes four distinct treatment conditions in the primary treatment sellers face uncertain demand but can eliminate uncertainty through voluntary mutual information sharing three control treatments identify the reasons for voluntary information sharing and determine if it leads to more collusive outcomes the first two control treatments eliminate sellers information sharing opportunities in the first control treatment sellers always remain uncertain about demand when choosing output while in the second control treatment sellers always have perfect demand information we refer to these control treatments respectively as forced no sharing and forced sharing throughout the paper the third control treatment sharply reduces collusion incentives by truncating demand while still allowing voluntary information transmission we refer to this control treatment as the truncated demand treatment the results briefly stated are as follows

retraining for the unemployed and the quality of the job match in germany retraining is an important measure in active labour market policy providing unemployed individuals with extensive vocational training using administrative data we show that retrainin

firm sponsored training in regulated labour markets evidence from spain using data from the 1994 european community household panel survey the author examines who receives formal firm sponsored training in spain the author finds that the distribution of firm sponsored training in the work force is uneven and concentrated among more skilled workers in the upper deciles of the wage distribution the data show that the likelihood of receiving firm sponsored training for a low education employee is much lower also the better educated employees in high wage occupations of the largest establishments have higher probabilities of receiving specific training spain has a highly regulated labour market and the labour market frictions and institutions compress and distort the structure of wages however the results suggest that the highly compressed wage structure do not provide firms with the incentive to invest in general training

evaluating the econometric evaluations of training programs with experimental data this paper takes the results of an employment and training program thatwas run as a field experiment in which the participants were randomlyassigned into a treatment or a control group and compares these results to the estimates that might have been produced by an econometrician who evaluated the program using the same econometric procedures that have been used in the program evaluation literature this comparison shows that many of these econometric procedures fail toreplicate the experimentally determined results and suggests that researchers should be aware of the potential for specification errorsin other nonexperimental evaluations copyright 1986 by american economic association

the effects of welfare to work program activities on labor market outcomes studies examining welfare to work program effectiveness present mixed and sometimes discrepant findings partly due to research design data and methodological limitations using administrative data on missouri and north carolina welfare recipients we substantially improve on past estimation approaches to identify the distinct effects of each state s welfare to work subprograms assessment job search assistance and job readiness training and more intensive programs designed to augment human capital more intensive training is associated with greater initial earnings losses but also greater long run earnings gains the negative program impacts we observe in quarters immediately following participation turn positive by the second year after participation

occupational change employer change and the transferability of skills the individual propensity to change occupations has been little analyzed by economists despite its important implications for income growth and market adjustment individual income growth is commonly associated with one form of occupational change that of upward occupational mobility several examples of upward mobility sequences are technician to engineer to manager receptionist to secretary to administrative assistant laborer to operative to craft worker changes in these directions are likely to be accompanied by income growth and conversely downward occupational mobility would decrease income the implicit cause of the income growth associated with upward mobility is the increase in the individual s skills and the return to those skills in other words each of the sequences listed above appears to represent a discontinuous sequence of investments in occupational skills the resulting life cycle profile of investment and income growth is discontinuous and concave similar life cycle profiles would characterize an individual s change of employer or region yet these latter two types of mobility have received much more attention by economists than has occupational change this paper attempts to address this gap by developing a human capital investment model describing the direction and timing of occupational change to place the research described below in perspective one must first ask why there has been so little analysis of occupational change sociologists have long been interested in occupational mobility analyzing it as a means of upward income mobility yet economists have focused on models of occupational choice disregarding occupational change over the life cycle 4 15 these models of occupational choice rely most heavily on the effects of formal schooling thus disregarding the majority of the labor force for whom formal schooling is not a major determinant of either occupational choice or subsequent occupational change two factors may have contributed to the lack of interest in occupational change first the analysis of occupational change has relatively little direct policy relevance as compared to the analysis of labor institutions for example occupational change was last examined in

duopoly information equilibrium cournot and bertrand abstract in a duopoly model where firms have private information about an uncertain linear demand it is shown that if the goods are substitutes not to share information is a dominant strategy for each firm in bertrand cournot competition if the goods are complements the result is reversed furthermore the following welfare results are obtained 1 i with substitutes in cournot competition the market outcome is never optimal with respect to information sharing but it may be optimal in bertrand competition if the products are good substitutes with complements the market outcome is always optimal 2 ii bertrand competition is more efficient than cournot competition 3 iii the private value of information to the firms is always positive but the social value of information is positive in cournot and negative in bertrand competition

inflation risk premia in the term structure of interest rates this paper estimates the size and dynamics of inflation risk premia in the euro area based on a joint model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics information from both nominal and index linked yields is used in the empirical analysis our results indicate that the inflation risk premium on euro area 10 year nominal yields was approximately equal to 20 basis points on average over the 1999 2007 period the inflation premium has also been subject to moderate but statistically significant fluctuations for the post 2003 period in which reliable index linked bond prices are available our results suggest that increases in the raw break even inflation rate above 2 the upper bound of the european central bank s definition for price stability have mostly reflected variations in the inflation risk premium while long term inflation expectations have remained well anchored

regional discontinuities and the effectiveness of further training subsidies for low skilled employees the author analyzes the effects of further training subsidies for low skilled employees on individual labor market outcomes in germany using detailed administrative data the author exploits cross

an open economy macro finance model of international interdependence the oecd us and the uk abstract this paper develops a multi country macro finance model to study international economic and financial linkages this approach models the economy and financial markets jointly using both types of data to throw light on such issues the world economy is modelled using data for the us and aggregate oecd economies as well as the us treasury bond market using latent variables to represent a common inflation trend and a us real interest rate factor we find strong evidence of global effects on both the us and uk calling into question the standard closed economy macro finance specification these economic linkages also help to explain the co movement of yields in the us and uk treasury bond markets

competitive pricing in markets with different overhead costs concealment or leakage of cost information this paper experimentally investigates how leaders and followers in a duopoly set prices for two product markets that have different overhead costs in a fully crossed two by two design we manipulate the participants private cost report quality as either low or high representing the extent to which these reports reveal that product markets have different overhead costs we show that when only the leader is given a high quality cost report private cost information of higher quality is better incorporated into market prices that are observable to participants both the leader and follower improve in profits and their prices better reflect the differences in overhead costs because the follower infers information from the leader s prices information leakage in contrast when only the follower receives a high quality cost report the leader s profits and prices do not improve this occurs because the follower conceals cost information when the leader has a low quality cost report

shifting endpoints in the term structure of interest rates abstract this paper links the term structure to perceptions of monetary policy long horizon forecasts of short rates required by no arbitrage term structure models are heavily influenced by the endpoints or limiting conditional forecasts of the short rate process common assumptions that the short rate is mean reverting or contains a unit root are shown to generate unrealistic yield predictions failures occur because these assumptions inadequately account for historical shifts in market perceptions of the policy target for inflation this paper links endpoint shifts to agent learning about shifts in long term policy goals shifting endpoints in short rate processes significantly improve yield predictions

the effect of job tenure on wage offers a wage offer can be either acceptable or unacceptable to a worker but in cross sectional and panel data only acceptable wage offers are observed an ols wage equation will not reveal how job tenure affects wage offers but rather will reveal how tenure affects acceptable wage offers by jointly modeling the firm s determination of the wage offer and the worker s decision to accept or reject the offer we are able to estimate the effect of job tenure on wage offers consistently in contrast to the usual ols results we find that job tenure has no statistically significant effect on wage offers

why do low educated workers invest less in further training several studies document that low educated workers participate less often in further training than high educated workers this article investigates two possible explanations low educated workers invest less in training because of 1 the lower economic returns to these investments or 2 their lower willingness to participate in training controlling for unobserved heterogeneity we find that the economic returns to training for low educated workers are positive and not significantly different from those for high educated workers however low educated workers are significantly less willing to participate in training we show that this lesser willingness to train is driven by economic preferences and personality traits

cooperation as a result of learning with aspiration levels abstract it is shown that a win stay lose shift behavior rule with endogenous aspiration levels yields cooperation in a certain class of games interaction takes place in many groups markets or locations simultaneously and the aspiration level in each round equals the current population average the class of games includes the prisoner s dilemma and cournot oligopoly and thus yields an explanation for cooperation and collusion

occupational mobility and wage inequality in this article we argue that wage inequality and occupational mobility are intimately related we are motivated by our empirical findings that human capital is occupation specific and that the fraction of workers switching occupations in the u s was as high as 16 a year in the early 1970 s and had increased to 21 by the mid 1990 s we develop a general equilibrium model with occupation specific human capital and heterogeneous experience levels within occupations we find that the model calibrated to match the level of occupational mobility in the 1970 s accounts quite well for the level of within group wage inequality in that period next we find that the model calibrated to match the increase in occupational mobility accounts for over 90 of the increase in wage inequality between the 1970 s and the 1990 s the theory is also quantitatively consistent with the level and increase in the short term variability of earnings copyright wiley blackwell

the term structure and inflation uncertainty abstract to assess the importance of inflation risk for nominal treasury yields a novel quadratic term structure model with time varying inflation risk is estimated using survey based inflation uncertainty the resulting yield decomposition captures very diverse macroeconomic dynamics of inflation and real risk premiums large and positive during the 1980s but small and negative post 2008 and generates sensible high frequency estimates of expected inflation and real short rates over a long sample the explicit link between the model implied factors and macro fundamentals reveals that short but not long run fluctuations are unspanned by yields consistent with an interest rate policy unresponsive to transient inflation shocks

inflation expectations and risk premiums in an arbitrage free model of nominal and real bond yields differences between yields on comparable maturity u s treasury nominal and real debt the so called breakeven inflation bei rates are widely used indicators of inflation expectations however better measures of inflation expectations could be obtained by subtracting inflation risk premiums from the bei rates we provide such decompositions using an estimated affine arbitrage free model of the term structure that captures the pricing of both nominal and real treasury securities our empirical results suggest that long term inflation expectations have been well anchored over the past few years and inflation risk premiums although volatile have been close to zero on average

active labor market policy evaluations a meta analysis this article presents a meta analysis of recent microeconometric evaluations of active labour market policies we categorise 199 programme impacts from 97 studies conducted between 1995 and 2007 job search assistance programmes yield relatively favourable programme impacts whereas public sector employment programmes are less effective training programmes are associated with positive medium term impacts although in the short term they often appear ineffective we also find that the outcome variable used to measure programme impact matters but neither the publication status of a study nor the use of a randomised design is related to the sign or significance of the programme estimate

occupational specificity of human capital we find that returns to occupational tenure are substantial everything else being constant 5 years of occupational tenure are associated with an increase in wages of 12 20 moreover when occupational experience is taken into account tenure with an industry or employer has relatively little importance in accounting for the wage one receives this finding is consistent with human capital being occupation specific

real risk inflation risk and the term structure i present a model for the term structures of nominal and real interest rates in the uk that incorporates markov switching and allows for non neutralities nonlinear dynamics and flexibility in the dynamics of the risk premia the model is used to assess how accurately the term structure reflects changing expectations of future yields and inflation i find that variations in inflation expected over the next two to three years are very accurately reflected by current yields over longer horizons the term structures closely track changing expectations regarding future nominal and real yields but not future inflation

examining the bond premium puzzle with a dsge model the basic inability of standard theoretical models to generate a sufficiently large and variable nominal bond risk premium has been termed the bond premium puzzle we show that the term premium on long term bonds in the canonical dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model used in macroeconomics is far too small and stable relative to the data we find that introducing long memory habits in consumption as well as labor market frictions can help fit the term premium but only by seriously distorting the dsge model s ability to fit other macroeconomic variables such as the real wage therefore the bond premium puzzle remains

the economics of new blood abstract we construct a dynamic general equilibrium model of search and matching where public knowledge grows through time and workers accumulate a fraction of this knowledge through education retraining due to search delays the unemployment pool is populated by vintages of workers of differing productivities through intergenerational rivalry the human capital of older generations is rendered obsolete relative to that of the new blood higher knowledge growth exacerbates intergenerational competition thereby lowering education and growth while raising unemployment and inequality these findings help explain wage compression expansion and the hump shaped wage tenure profile across cohorts

subject response to loss in an experimental tournament abstract we present tests for the influence of losing on subsequent behavior in a nongame tournament experiment the results are uniformly insignificant suggesting non convex incentives such as tournaments or quotas do not cause suboptimal behavior among losers as has been asserted

information leakage forces cooperation abstract this paper considers a two person repeated game in which there is a small probability of espionage i e that one or both of the players will be informed of the other s supergame strategy and have a chance to revise his strategy on the basis of this information before the game begins it is shown that in such a game any subgame perfect equilibrium pair of payoffs is pareto efficient provided that the probability of espionage is sufficiently small different from preceding studies the present paper assumes neither collective deviation nor bounded rationality in deriving the result

substitution and dropout bias in social experiments a study of an influential social experiment this paper considers the interpretation of evidence from social experiments when persons randomized out of a program being evaluated have good substitutes for it and when persons randomized into a program drop out to pursue better alternatives using data from an experimental evaluation of a classroom training program we document the empirical importance of control group substitution and treatment group dropping out evidence that one program is ineffective relative to close substitutes is not evidence that the type of service provided by all of the programs is ineffective although that is the way experimental evidence is often interpreted

employability miles and worker employability awareness this article studies the use and impact of a employability miles voucher scheme these vouchers could be used for participation in a restricted number of training courses which all aim to stimulate employees to develop a more active attitude towards their own employability using data from two surveys of one firm s workforce we find that voucher use is related to various personality traits and personal characteristics in particular a worker s ambition goal setting and education level are positively related to voucher use in addition workers with longer tenure spend their vouchers more often conversely workers with a more positive self image as well as those who are negatively reciprocal spend their vouchers less often the negative relation between voucher use and negative reciprocity suggests that workers who are more negatively reciprocal perceive the voucher as an hr tool for outplacement further we find that voucher use positively affects worker employability awareness and willingness t

job matching and occupational choice this paper presents a model of job matching the generalizes the existing literature by allowing for different jobs types or occupations such differences affect the value of job specific experience inducing a career profile where certain types are sampled before others more specifically the analysis shows that it is optimal for the young and inexperienced to gravitate toward jobs exhibiting a certain kind of risk then after deriving the equilibrium job turnover rate for an economy in which people do not switch occupations panel data are used to estimate its underlying parameters the hypothesis that people do not switch occupations is rejected against the alternative that they do thus providing empirical support for the theoretical extension undertaken here

estimating inflation risk premia using inflation linked bonds a review this paper provides an overview of studies that estimate the inflation risk premium using inflation linked bond ilb yields i categorize existing studies outline their research designs and compare their estimates for the inflation risk premium furthermore the importance of accounting for ilb illiquidity and an overview of existing ilb liquidity proxies are demonstrated a discussion of current literature developments such as the zero lower bound and an outline for future research directions conclude the paper

worker heterogeneity job screening and firm size a model of job screening is developed in which firms make wage offers to workers based on an imperfect evaluation of their abilities if large firms have higher costs of acquiring information about workers they screen workers with less accuracy and choose a wage compensation scheme different from the one small firms choose this generates the often observed positive correlation between firm size and wages the model also predicts that wage structure and perhaps wage dispersion will differ by firm size and that individuals who acquire more schooling will also choose to work in a larger firm these hypotheses are tested and supported using data from the national longitudinal survey

the role of noncognitive skills in explaining cognitive test scores this paper examines whether noncognitive skills measured both by personality traits and economic preference parameters influence cognitive tests performance the basic idea is that noncognitive skills might affect the effort people put into a test to obtain good results we experimentally varied the rewards for questions in a cognitive test to measure to what extent people are sensitive to financial incentives to distinguish increased mental effort from extra time investments we also varied the questions time constraints subjects with favorable personality traits such as high performance motivation and an internal locus of control perform relatively well in the absence of rewards consistent with a model in which trying as hard as you can is the best strategy in contrast favorable economic preference parameters low discount rate low risk aversion are associated with increases in time investments when incentives are introduced consistent with a rational economic model in which people only invest when there are monetary returns the main conclusion is that individual behavior at cognitive tests depends on noncognitive skills

what do the prices of uk inflation linked securities say on inflation expectations risk premia and liquidity risks abstract the difference between yields on nominal and inflation linked government bonds or inflation swap rates are important indicators of the outlook for inflation and are monitored regularly by central banks including the united kingdom s monetary policy committee mpc however in the united kingdom inflation linked instruments reference rpi inflation whereas the mpc s target is cpi inflation of 2 in this paper we extract market expectations for uk cpi inflation with the help of uk rpi linked gilt prices which is a novelty in the literature to better extract useful information about expectations for cpi inflation we develop a no arbitrage term structure model and decompose the forward inflation curve into measures of cpi inflation expectations the expected wedge between rpi and cpi inflation estimates of inflation risk premia and estimates of liquidity risk premia we show that long horizon expectations of cpi inflation fell in the 1990 s after the introduction of inflation targeting and the creation of the mpc and have since remained fairly stable at around 2