conditional dependence structure between oil prices and exchange rates a copula garch approach abstract we study the conditional dependence structure between crude oil prices and u s dollar exchange rates using a copula garch approach various copula functions of the elliptical archimedean and quadratic families are used to model the underlying dependence structure in both bearish and bullish market phases over the 2000 2011 period we find evidence of significant and symmetric dependence for almost all the oil exchange rate pairs considered the rise in the price of oil is found to be associated with the depreciation of the dollar moreover we show that student t copulas best capture the extreme dependence and that taking the extreme comovement into account leads to improve the accuracy of var forecasts our main results remain unchanged when considering alternative garch type specifications and the crisis period but are sensitive to the use of raw returns

reassessing the empirical relationship between the oil price and the dollar abstract this paper aims at reassessing the empirical relationship between the real price of oil and the u s dollar real effective exchange rate over the 1974 2015 period we find that changes in both variables are now linked by a negative relationship going from the dollar exchange rate to the real oil price however the same relationship is found positive when ending the sample in the mid 2000s in line with the previous literature to understand and investigate this evolution we rely on a nonlinear smooth transition regression model in which the oil price dollar nexus depends on the dynamics followed by the u s currency our results show that the relationship is negative most of the times but turns positive when the dollar hits very high values as in the early eighties

oil and foreign exchange market tail dependence and risk spillovers for mena emerging and developed countries vmd decomposition based copulas abstract this paper examines the short and medium run dependence structures between oil and currency markets for mena other developing and developed countries using a novel multiresolution decomposition method namely the variational mode decomposition vmd along with a battery of time invariant and time varying symmetric and asymmetric copula functions further we assess the downside and upside short and medium run risk spillovers from oil to u s exchange rate returns and vice versa by computing the conditional value at risk covar risk measures before the copula estimations we apply the spillover index of diebold and yilmaz 2012 and network diagrams to identify and select the currencies that are the most significant net contributors or net receivers of returns from to the oil currency markets the copula results show strong evidence of time varying and high average tail dependence between oil returns and the fx markets which are net transmitters to oil for the short and medium time horizons on the other hand we find average and relatively low dynamic dependence between oil and the net receiver currencies regardless of the time horizons moreover there is evidence of up and down risk asymmetric systemic risks from oil to currencies and vice versa for some countries in the short and medium run horizons finally the risk spillovers are asymmetric over time and investment horizons these results have several important implications for hedging strategies and diversification benefits for oil and fx traders and institutional investors

modelling unobserved heterogeneity in contingent valuation of health risks human preferences for alternative levels of health risks can be heterogeneous in this paper a flexible distribution approach to model health values elicited with the dichotomous choice contingent valuation method is considered rigid parametric structures cannot model sample heterogeneity while imposing strong assumptions on the error distribution a mixture of normal distributions is considered which can approximate arbitrary well any empirical distributions as the number of mixtures increases the model is applied to data on willingness to pay for reducing the individual risk of an episode of respiratory illness the mixture distribution model is compared with the rigid probit model using a bayes factor test the results show that the mixture modelling approach improves performance while allowing for the consideration of alternative groups of individuals with different preferences for health risks

the deer hunter the unintended effects of hunting regulations abstract to control the deer population state game commissions regulate the types of deer that can be legally harvested these regulations however might have an unintended effect on hunting related accidents by changing the care hunters take when firing their rifles a moral hazard effect or changing the composition of hunters using detailed data on hunting accidents and regulations in pennsylvania counties from 1990 to 2005 we find compelling evidence that harvesting restrictions increase the care hunters take in a manner consistent with moral hazard thus these regulations have a positive safety externality

multi scale dependence structure and risk contagion between oil gold and us exchange rate a wavelet based vine copula approach abstract this study makes a systemic analysis of dependence and risk contagion among oil gold and the us dollar foreign exchange us fx markets employing the wavelet method and a time varying tri variate vine copula model compared to previous research our empirical findings not only reveal the impact of co variate instead of pairwise analysis but also reveal the patterns of heterogeneity influence in different time horizons both dynamic average dependence and tail dependence show that the three assets are better integrated in the medium run time scales than the short run time scales whereby us fx connects the three assets in the short term while gold does so in the medium term all three multi variate scenarios show that risk contagion is temporal at different time scales the oil market was found to be more sensitive to the upside and downside risk contagion of the gold market in the short run time scales and vice versa asymmetry also shows that both the us fx and gold market are more sensitive to upside and downside risk contagion in the medium run time scales

counterfactual decomposition of changes in wage distributions using quantile regression we propose a method to decompose the changes in the wage distribution over a period of time in several factors contributing to those changes the method is based on the estimation of marginal wage distributions consistent with a conditional distribution estimated by quantile regression as well as with any hypothesized distribution for the covariates comparing the marginal distributions implied by different distributions for the covariates one is then able to perform counterfactual exercises the proposed methodology enables the identification of the sources of the increased wage inequality observed in most countries specifically it decomposes the changes in the wage distribution over a period of time into several factors contributing to those changes namely by discriminating between changes in the characteristics of the working population and changes in the returns to these characteristics we apply this methodology to portuguese data for the period 1986 1995 and find that the observed increase in educational levels contributed decisively towards greater wage inequality copyright 2005 john wiley sons ltd

dynamic connectedness of oil price shocks and exchange rates abstract using a novel method of isolating the oil price shocks we study how different sources of oil price shocks are connected to exchange rates of major oil dependent countries using daily data from march 1996 to february 2019 we find that oil price shocks resulting from changes in demand and risk significantly contribute to variation in exchange rates while supply shocks have virtually no impact the connectedness of this relationship between oil price shocks and exchange rates has significantly increased after the global financial crisis we also find that oil price shocks do not explain the variation in exchange rate volatility but we document significant volatility connectedness among exchange rates our findings have important implications for policy makers and financial market participants

linkages among energy price exchange rates and stock markets evidence from emerging african economies this study examines the dynamic links among oil prices foreign exchange rates and stock markets in emerging africa using recent 10 years data and var bekk garch forecasting framework we find evid

modeling returns and volatility transmission between oil price and us nigeria exchange rate article i nfo this paper models returns and volatility transmission between oil price op and us nigeria exchange rate exr consequently it provides five main innovations i it analyzes op and exr using the recently devel oped test by narayan and popp 2010 np which allows for two structural breaks in the data series ii it employs the narayan and liu 2011 nl garch unit root test to evaluate robustness of np test iii it con siders the newly developed var garch model to capture the spillover effects in the returns and volatility of op and exr iv it modifies the var garch model to account for structural breaks obtained from the np procedure and v using the results obtained from the var garch model it examines the optimal weights of holding oil and foreign exchange fx assets and also computes the hedging ratios in the presence of oil risk based on the np and nl tests it finds robust structural breaks that coincide with the period of global fi nancial crisis as well as period of fx crisis in nigeria also it establishes a bidirectional returns and spillover transmission between oil and fx markets finally its findings reveal evidence of hedging effectiveness involving oil and fx markets in nigeria and thus the inclusion of oil into a diversified portfolio of fx will improve its risk adjusted return performance

incentive effects in the demand for health care a bivariate panel count data estimation this paper contributes in three dimensions to the literature on health care demand first it features the first application of a bivariate random effects estimator in a count data setting to permit the efficient estimation of this type of model with panel data second it provides an innovative test of adverse selection and confirms that high risk individuals are more likely to acquire supplemental add on insurance third the estimations yield that in accordance with the theory of moral hazard we observe a much lower frequency of doctor visits among the self employed and among mothers of small children copyright 2002 john wiley sons ltd

two stage residual inclusion estimation addressing endogeneity in health econometric modeling the paper focuses on two estimation methods that have been widely used to address endogeneity in empirical research in health economics and health services research two stage predictor substitution 2sps and two stage residual inclusion 2sri 2sps is the rote extension to nonlinear models of the popular linear two stage least squares estimator the 2sri estimator is similar except that in the second stage regression the endogenous variables are not replaced by first stage predictors instead first stage residuals are included as additional regressors in a generic parametric framework we show that 2sri is consistent and 2sps is not results from a simulation study and an illustrative example also recommend against 2sps and favor 2sri our findings are important given that there are many prominent examples of the application of inconsistent 2sps in the recent literature this study can be used as a guide by future researchers in health economics who are confronted with endogeneity in their empirical work

china and the relationship between the oil price and the dollar abstract we study cointegration and causality between the real price of oil and the real price of the dollar over the 1974 2004 period our results suggest that a 10 rise in the oil price coincides with a 4 3 appreciation of the dollar in the long run and that the causality runs from oil to the dollar through the development of a theoretical model we then investigate possible reasons why this relationship could be reversed in the future due to the emergence of china as a major player on both the oil and the foreign exchange markets

nonparametric estimation of the impact of taxes on female labor supply this paper proposes a simple extension of nonparametric estimation methods for nonlinear budget set models derived in blomquist and newey 2002 to censored dependent variables the nonparametric method is applied to estimate female labor supply elasticities using data on married women from the 1985 and 1989 waves of the panel study of income dynamics exploiting the substantial variation in budget sets caused by the tax reform act of 1986 as a source of identification the estimated wage elasticities from this new method are 0 56 overall and 0 27 on the intensive margin the income elasticity estimates are close to 0 67 overall and 0 13 on the intensive margin compared with the linear labor supply model the estimated elasticities are usually larger for the nonparametric specifications that account for nonlinear budget sets copyright 2010 john wiley sons ltd

oil prices inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated var model for the g 7 countries sharp increases in the price of oil are generally seen as a major contributor to business cycle asymmetries moreover the very recent highs registered in the world oil market are causing concern about possible slowdowns in the economic performance of the most developed countries in this paper a structural cointegrated var model has been considered for the g 7 countries in order to study the direct effects of oil price shocks on output and prices and the reaction of monetary variables to external shocks our results can be summarized as follows i a stationary money demand as suggested by the classic theory of money can be identified for most countries ii according to the estimated coefficients of the structural part of the model for all countries except japan and u k the null hypothesis of an influence of oil prices on the inflation rate cannot be rejected inflation rate shocks are transmitted to the real economy by increasing interest rates iii impulse response analysis suggests for most countries the existence of an instantaneous temporary effect of oil price innovations on prices iv impulse response functions indicate different monetary policy reactions to inflationary and growth shocks v the simulation exercises directed to estimate the total impact of the 1990 oil price shock indicate that for some countries u s a significant part of the effects of the oil price shock is due to the monetary policy reaction function for other countries canada france and italy however the total impact is offset at least in part by an easing of monetary conditions

causal flows between oil and forex markets using high frequency data asymmetries from good and bad volatility abstract this paper investigates the causal linkages in volatility between crude oil prices and six major bilateral exchange rates against the u s dollar in the time frequency space using high frequency intraday data special attention is paid to the potential asymmetries in the causal effects between oil and forex markets the wavelet based granger causality method proposed by olayeni 2016 is applied to quantify the causal relations in the time and frequency domains simultaneously moreover the realized semivariance approach of barndoff nielsen et al 2010 is used to account for possible asymmetries in the transmission of volatility shocks the empirical results show that the significant causal links between oil prices and exchange rates are mainly concentrated in the long run and during periods of increased economic and financial uncertainty such as the global financial crisis and the subsequent european sovereign debt crisis further the causal effects from currency markets to the crude oil market are stronger than in the opposite direction consistent with the forward looking nature of exchange rates the role of the u s dollar as the key invoicing currency for global oil trading and the expanding financialization of the oil market since the mid 2000s in addition significant asymmetries coming from good and bad volatility are found at longer horizons specifically bad volatility seems to dominate good volatility in terms of the importance of transmission of volatility shocks

dynamic and directional network connectedness of crude oil and currencies evidence from implied volatility abstract we explore the dynamic and directional network connectedness between implied volatility measures of crude oil and the exchange rate of nine major currency pairs for a sample period from may 2007 to december 2016 we use the dynamic cholesky factor vector autoregression variance decomposition method to ascertain the net directional spillovers and to determine the direction of the transmission of shocks we employed the network graph connectedness method across a few select events characterized by the crude oil price volatility of 2008 09 and 2014 16 we found that the crude oil market has a dominant impact on the total connectedness of the crude oil currency implied volatility relationship suggesting that crude oil affects currencies more than currencies affect crude oil for the time frame of 2007 16 however during the crude oil crisis periods the dynamics are reversed with crude having more of an effect additionally the pairwise directional network connectedness between the currency pairs reveals that eurusd is more sensitive to the crude price fluctuation than other major currency pairs and is one major currency that passes idiosyncratic shocks to other currency pairs

a microeconometric model of the demand for health care and health insurance in australia this paper develops a model for interdependent demand for health insurance and health care under uncertainty to throw light on the issue of insurance induced distortions in the demand for health care services the model is used to empirically analyse the determinants of the choice of health insurance type and seven types of health care services using micro level data from the 1977 78 australian health survey econometric implementation of the model involves simultaneously issues of discreteness of choice selectivity and stochastic dependence between health insurance and utilization health status appears to be more important in determining health care service use than health insurance choice while income appears to be more important in determining health insurance choice than in determining health care service use for a broad range of health care services both moral hazard and self selection are found to be important determinants of utilization of health care services

oil price shocks and trade imbalances abstract this study aims to examine whether a large part of the variability of trade balances and their oil and non oil components is associated with oil price fluctuations the long run causality running from oil price to overall oil and non oil trade balances and their short run dynamics are investigated by applying the toda and yamamoto 1995 ty causality approach and generalized impulse response functions irfs respectively to the monthly data spanning from january 1999 to november 2011 three asian economies that represent three distinct characteristics in terms of oil are chosen and examined malaysia as an oil exporter singapore as an oil refinery and japan as an oil importer the stability of the causality is also checked and the estimated impulse responses across different periods are examined the results have implications for both policy makers and economic modeling of the impact of oil price shocks

prescription drug expenditures in the united states the effects of obesity demographics and new pharmaceutical products author affiliation donald vandegrift professor of economics the college of new jersey 2000 pennington rd ewing nj 08628 usa vandedon tcnj eduanusua datta associate professor of economics school of business administration philadelphia university school house lane and henry avenue philadelphia pa 19144 usa dattaa philau edu corresponding author acknowledgment we wish to thank subarna samanta judith shinogle and karen conway for helpful discussions and comments julie l hotchkiss provided us with valuable suggestions for an earlier version of this article and we benefited from advice given by two anonymous referees at this journal ellie fogarty ravi kaneriya michael ferlise and leigh ann culbertson provided valuable research assistance 1 introductionduring the period 1990 1998 real per capita expenditures on prescription drugs in the u s increased by 84 1996 dollars gdp deflator beginning in 1993 the average annual percentage increase in prescription drug spending exceeded the overall percentage increase in national health expenditures by 1998 the annual percentage growth in prescription drug spending was more than 16 while overall spending on health care rose less than 6 compared to the previous year in total u s consumers spent more than 90 billion on prescription drugs in 1998 or 334 on a per capita basis centers for medicare and medicaid services 2002 not surprisingly prescription drug coverage and its associated costs have become issues in national as well as state political campaigns 1but the rising expenditures were not simply caused by higher prescription drug prices while the cpi consumer price index for prescription drugs rose by 42 nominal per capita expenditures on prescription drugs rose 120 during the period u s bureau of the census 2002 consequently higher rates of prescription drug consumption explain at least part of the story further while overall prescription drug spending has increased rapidly per capita prescription drug use in the united states varies widely by state in 1998 some states had per capita prescription drug spending of more than 400 while other states residents spent half that much while we do not wish to absolve the pharmaceutical manufacturers this data suggests that arguments placing the blame for high prescription drug costs on the prices and profits of pharmaceutical manufacturers may be missing a portion of the story the literature on prescription drugs suggests a number of causes e g new drug introductions aging of the population insurance coverage however berndt 2002 notes that a shortcoming of the existing literature is the lack of quantitative estimates of the causes for increased consumption of prescription drugs since the mid 1990s in a similar vein kane 1997 concludes that the effect of the managed care revolution has been difficult to separate out from the other forces affecting pharmaceuticals to better inform public policy we provide some quantitative estimates of the factors that have contributed to the increase in prescription drug expenditures we investigate the role of public health factors obesity smoking and alcohol consumption rates aging population 65 and over access to medical care managed care enrollments and the relative size of the uninsured population new pharmaceutical products income and unemployment on real prescription drug expenditures using panel data from all 50 u s states for the period 1990 1998 the estimates should allow better projections of the anticipated increase in prescription drug expenditures gauging the costs of smoking obesity and alcohol consumption is also important high costs associated with any of these public health problems make it easier to justify costly government programs to reduce their prevalence thus public policy responses to rising prescription drug expenditures will vary based on the source of the increase

exchange rates of oil exporting countries and global oil price shocks a nonlinear smooth transition approach this paper models logistic and exponential smooth transition adjustments of real exchange rates for six major oil exporting countries in response to different shocks affecting oil prices the logis

the wealth effects of premium subsidies on moral hazard in insurance markets abstract insurance premium subsidies are present in many insurance markets the swiss government for example paid out chf 4 26 billion or 0 72 of the swiss gdp for health insurance premium subsidies in 2011 analyses of premium subsidies have often highlighted that the increased insurance demand due to premium subsidies increases the effects of moral hazard in the market other consequences of premium subsidies however have mostly been neglected by the literature we show in our theoretical model that the wealth effects of premium subsidies decrease the sensitivity of the insured towards the monetary consequences of losses this leads to less prevention efforts by the insured and thus increases moral hazard in the market the effect is preserved if the subsidy is financed through proportional taxation using two alternative models we show that providing state dependent subsidies can either increase or reverse this effect depending on which state subsidies are paid we argue that whether demand effects or wealth effects of premium subsidies will dominate the insured s behavior depends on the market structure

oil price effects in theory and practice abstract the present paper contains an investigation of the international repercussions of oil price effects the analysis develops a theoretical model to study the effects of oil price changes on real income prices and international trade in a three region model dcs opec ldcs the comparative statics analysis indicates that oil price effects cannot be determined unambiguously unless information about structural parameters and policy reactions is also provided to estimate the quantitative effects of oil price changes the analysis relies on dynamic simulations of an econometrically estimated version of the theoretical model such a model is subject to a sensitivity analysis providing quantitative information about the international transmission of oil price effects

materials price increases and aggregate adjustment in an open economy a stochastic approach abstract this paper develops a stochastic macroequilibrium frameworks to analyze the differing implications of alternative types of input price disturbances the distinctions between expected and unexpected permanent and transitory nominal and real disturbances are considered the introduction of input disturbances involves a more elaborate modelling of the supply side of the economy both constant returns to scale and decreasing returns to scale technologies are considered the analysis highlights the sensitivity of the macroeconomic impacts of input price shocks to their specific type the analytical results obtained are not unambiguous and are supplemented with numerical simulations

estimating the moral hazard effect of supplemental medical insurance in the demand for prescription drugs by the elderly almost all persons over the age of 65 are insured under the medicare program for inpatient drug consumption this national insurance plan does not however generally cover the purchase of outpatient prescription drugs rx in 1992 more than onethird of all outpatient drug expenditures in the united states were incurred by medicare enrollees yet approximately 50 percent of the elderly did not have any coverage for this type of treatment daniel waldo 1994 in response to this and other gaps in medicare coverage private firms have offered insurance instruments specifically designed to fill such voids commonly known as medigap policies in addition to this form of financial protection contingent upon state of residency and economic status elderly persons may qualify and obtain coverage for rx through medicaid or a state sponsored drug program however even with these incomeand wealth sensitive options many relatively poor elderly are faced with significant outof pocket drug expenditures coverage is concentrated among those elderly with income over 200 percent of poverty and those below the poverty line stephen long 1994 the most vulnerable elderly seem to be protected from the financial hardship of excessive rx expenses through medicaid coverage but private supplemental insurance is potentially too expensive for seniors near the poverty line to alleviate this burden 11 states currently offer some form of rx insurance that is targeted at those elderly or disabled persons who are relatively poor but do not qualify for medicaid at the national level policymakers and interest groups have advocated adding coverage to the medicare program to assess such programmatic changes an accurate forecast of the potential change in rx usage is needed in this paper we use a 1990 sample of medicare enrolled pennsylvanians who may have private medigap insurance or coverage under the state s rx program to estimate the amount by which the rx demand of the average individual would change in the presence of insurance coverage ceteris paribus such a residual increase in the consumption of a medical commodity has been labeled the moralhazard effect of health insurance the estimation of this effect requires a nonstandard regression technique because insurance coverage for rx and those types of treatments that are complementary or substitutable for prescriptions may be endogenously determined those persons with a higher demand for drugs are more likely to demand supplemental insurance for rx coulson and terza department of economics pennsylvania state university university park pa 16802 neslusan division of economic research at the social security administration 4301 connecticut avenue n w washington dc 20008 stuart department of health policy and administration pennsylvania state university university park pa 16802 funding for survey design and implementation used in this research was supported by grants from the pew charitable trusts and the health care financing administration grant no 88 01439 001 the views expressed herein are not necessarily endorsed by either these agencies or the social security administration 1the now repealed medicare catastrophic coverage act of 1988 as well as many of the recent healthcare reform proposals would have provided for outpatient rx coverage for the elderly 122

moral hazard and the demand for health services a matching estimator approach we estimate the impact of extra health insurance coverage beyond a national health system on the demand for several health services traditionally the literature has tried to deal with the endogeneity of the private extra insurance decision by finding instrumental variables since a priori instrumental variables are hard to find we take a different approach we focus on the most common health insurance plan in portugal adse which is given to all civil servants and their dependents we argue that this insurance is exogenous i e not correlated with the beneficiaries health status this identifying assumption allows us to estimate the impact of having adse coverage on the demand for three different health services using a matching estimator technique the health services used are number of visits number of blood and urine tests and the probability of visiting a dentist results show large positive effects of adse coverage for number of visits and tests among the young 18 30 years old but only the latter is statistically significantly different from zero the effects represent 21 8 and 30 of the average number of visits and tests for the young on the contrary we find no evidence of moral hazard on the probability of visiting a dentist

oil price fluctuations and u s dollar exchange rates adding oil prices to the monetary model of exchange rates we find that oil prices significantly explain movements in the value of the u s dollar usd against major currencies from the 1970s to 2008 our long run and forecasting results are remarkably consistent with an oil exchange rate relationship increases in real oil prices lead to a significant depreciation of the usd against net oil exporter currencies such as canada mexico and russia on the other hand the currencies of oil importers such as japan depreciate relative to the usd when the real oil price goes up

disentangling the role of the exchange rate in oil related scenarios for the european stock market abstract the literature has been analysing so far the response of the stock market to a distress scenario for oil prices considering prices in domestic currency this assumption implies merging commodity risk and exchange rate risk this article proposes to generate oil related scenario depending on the source of risk the same distress oil related scenario in euros could generate an opposite impact on the european stock market depending on the source of risk results show higher losses for eurostoxx when oil prices in euros experience a downward movement due to a decrease of oil price in us dollars and when oil prices in euros experience an upward movement due to a depreciation of the euro against the us dollar this framework can improve our understanding of how the exchange rate interacts in global markets also it contributes to the design of tailor made international scenarios for stress testing

deriving target selection rules from endogenously selected samples one of the aims of direct marketing in practice is to target the most profitable customers in the database at hand this selection is often done based on observed behavior in the past as a consequence databases arising from the responses to direct mailings are not a random sample from all potential respondents when not all heterogeneity is observed part of the target selection rule will be based on the unobserved heterogeneity so selection is endogenous treating an endogenously selected sample as a random sample results in inconsistent parameter estimates which in general also harms the predictive performance of the model we develop an adjustment to the likelihood of the model that corrects for the endogenous sample selection we apply this technique to the selection of mail targets for a charitable organization in the application we also show that based on a model for the response rate and the amount donated simultaneously we can create a target selection rule that maximizes expected revenues such a selection rule outperforms selection rules based on response rates or donated amount only the traditional approach of maximizing response is therefore not the optimal approach to target selection

how do dynamic responses of exchange rates to oil price shocks co move from a time varying perspective abstract with globalization and financialization exchange rates could be sensitive to oil price shocks due to differences of exchange rate policy oil dependence status and other factors the responses of exchange rates to oil price shocks could be either similar or heterogeneous therefore in this paper we integrate a hybrid research framework to investigate the co movement of responses to oil price shocks of four major exchange rate of currencies included in the special drawing rights basket from january 2000 to september 2018 from a time varying aspect and considering the asymmetric effect of the oil price shocks the main results are as follows compared with the general oil price shocks unexpected oil price shocks could have greater influence on currency markets over time with the asymmetric effect happening only when extreme market situations and unexpected oil price shocks appear simultaneously pairwise exchange rates tend to move in either a negatively or a positively similar way rather than in an unrelated manner in 50 of the sampled market time the co movement situation of exchange rates response could be captured by specific small numbers of co movement modes with the euro us dollar usd and great british pound usd tending to co move in more stable manner and having the potential to serve as an early warning of risk while other pairwise exchange rates are characterized by time varying features

estimation of a type 2 tobit model with generalized box cox transformation this article considers estimation of a type 2 tobit model with bickel doksum transformation of the dependent variable of the regression equation the basic idea is that while the transformed depend

parametric and semiparametric estimation of sample selection models an empirical application to the female labour force in portugal this paper applies both parametric and semiparametric methods to the estimation of wage and participation equations for married women in portugal the semiparametric estimators considered are the two stage estimators proposed by newey 1991 and andrews and schafgans 1998 the selection equation results are compared using the specification tests proposed by horowitz 1993 horowitz and hardle 1994 and the wage equation results are compared using a hausman test significant differences between the two approaches indicate the inappropriateness of the standard parametric methods to the estimation of the model and for the purpose of policy simulations the greater departure seems to occur in the range of the low values of the index corresponding to a specific group of women copyright 2001 john wiley sons ltd

the relationship between oil prices and exchange rates revisiting theory and evidence abstract this paper reviews existing theoretical and empirical research on the relationship between oil prices and exchange rates we start with theoretical transmission channels which point to bi directional causality empirical research is classified and shows that the evidence varies substantially depending on sample country choice and empirical method yet there are some common patterns i strong links between exchange rates and oil prices are frequently observed over the long run and ii either exchange rates or oil prices are a potentially useful predictor of the other variable in the short run but the effects are strongly time varying we also identify some important avenues for future research

estimation of a two limit tobit model with generalized box cox transformation and unknown censoring thresholds this article considers estimation of a two limit tobit model with generalized box cox transformation and unknown censoring thresholds the maximum likelihood estimates of the censoring thresholds a

oil and us dollar exchange rate dependence a detrended cross correlation approach abstract this paper examines the relationship between oil prices and the us dollar exchange rate using detrended cross correlation analysis for a wide set of currencies in the periods before and since the onset of the recent global financial crisis we characterized the oil price exchange rate relationship at different time scales and documented two main findings first the cross correlation analysis indicated that oil price exchange rate correlations were negative and low having in general lower values for longer time scales second negative dependence between oil and the us dollar increased after the onset of the global financial crisis for all time scales thereby providing evidence of both contagion and interdependence this empirical evidence has important implications for monetary and fiscal policies asset management and risk assessment

oil price drivers geopolitical uncertainty and oil exporters currencies abstract empirical relationships between crude oil prices and exchange rates of oil exporting countries tend to vary over time i use econometric models of the norwegian and canadian nominal exchange rates to investigate whether such time variation could reflect shifts in the key drivers of oil prices over time results suggest that demand and supply driven oil price increases strengthen these currencies to different extents in contrast heightened geopolitical uncertainty and associated oil price increases go together with a weakening of oil exporters currencies the latter result may explain coincidences of higher oil prices and a weakening of oil exporters currencies

the empirical relationship between energy futures prices and exchange rates abstract this paper investigates the interaction between energy futures prices and exchange rates results are presented to show that futures prices for crude oil heating oil and unleaded gasoline are co integrated with a trade weighted index of exchange rates this is important because it means that there exists a long run equilibrium relationship between these four variables granger causality results for both the long and short run are presented evidence is also presented that suggests exchange rates transmit exogenous shocks to energy futures prices

semiparametric estimation of the intercept of a sample selection model this paper provides a consistent and asymptotically normal estimator for the intercept of a semiparametrically estimated sample selection model the estimator uses a decreasingly small fraction of all observations as the sample size goes to infinity as in heckman 1990 in the semiparametrics literature estimation of the intercept has typically been subsumed in the nonparametric sample selection bias correction term the estimation of the intercept however is important from an economic perspective for instance it permits one to determine the wage gap between unionized and nonunionized workers decompose the wage differential between different socioeconomic groups e g male female and black white and evaluate the net benefits of a social programme

the dynamics of changes in the female wage distribution in the usa a quantile regression approach this paper examines the female wage structure focusing on changes at different points in the wage distribution newly developed quantile regression methods are used in analysing data from the march current population survey the results show that while the most significant changes for the less skilled women took place at the bottom of the wage distribution for the more skilled groups changes occurred at both ends of the distribution consequently wage inequality decreased for the high school graduates and increased for the younger college graduates furthermore the more highly skilled women experienced the steepest gain in wages regardless of their position in the distribution 1998 john wiley sons ltd

on the relationship between the prices of oil and the precious metals revisiting with a multivariate regime switching decision tree this study examines the volatility and correlation and their relationships among the euro us dollar exchange rates the s p500 equity indices and the prices of wti crude oil and the precious metals gold silver and platinum over the period 2005 to 2012 our model links the univariate volatilities with the correlations via a hidden stochastic decision tree the ensuing hidden markov decision tree hmdt model is in fact an extension of the hidden markov model hmm introduced by jordan et al 1997 the architecture of this model is the opposite that of the classical deterministic approach based on a binary decision tree and it allows a probabilistic vision of the relationship between univariate volatility and correlation our results are categorized into three groups namely 1 exchange rates and oil 2 s p500 indices and 3 precious metals a switching dynamics is seen to characterize the volatilities while in the case of the correlations the series switch from one regime to another this movement touching a peak during the period of the subprime crisis in the us and again during the days following the tohoku earthquake in japan our findings show that the relationships between volatility and correlation are dependent upon the nature of the series considered sometimes corresponding to those found in econometric studies according to which correlation increases in bear markets at other times differing from them

on the determination of the us aggregate health care expenditure per capita real health care expenditure is examined against three major groups of explanatory variables economic demographic and health stock and it is found that the three groups of variables have an impact on real health care spending other subcategories such as real private and government health care pharmaceutical dental home nursing ambulatory personal medical consumption and in patient expenditures have also been examined and have been found to be affected by the explanatory variables for several subcomponents there is evidence of supplier inducement of the demographic group of variables the ageing population had an impact only on the per capita real overall and private health care outlay and pharmaceutical spending also cointegrating relationships were found and consistent estimators of the elasticities found

risk dependence of covar and structural change between oil prices and exchange rates a time varying copula model abstract this paper analyses the dynamic dependence between wti crude oil and the exchange rates of the united states and china taking structural changes of dependence into account by using six time varying copula models upside and downside conditional values at risk covars are introduced specifically to measure the upward and downward risk dependences between oil prices and exchange rates the findings indicate a structural break point of dependence exists between daily or weekly crude oil and the us dollar index the dependence between crude oil and the rmb exchange rate is faintly positive with lower tail dependence while the dependence between crude oil and the us dollar index is significantly negative with lower upper and upper lower tail dependence finally the covars results show that there is significant risk spillover from crude oil to chinese and the us exchange rate markets furthermore the spillover effect is significantly asymmetry in chinese exchange rate market in response to rising and falling oil returns while the asymmetry of spillover effect for the us dollar index is not significant

global economic activity crude oil price and production stock market behaviour and the nigeria us exchange rate abstract this paper investigates the dynamic relationship among oil price nigeria us exchange rate stock market activity kilian s global economic activity index and global oil production we develop a robust stable single equation error correction model where the exchange rate solely bears the burden of short run adjustments with causal influences from the rest of the variables included in the model we find a role for asymmetry in the long run confirming the presence of equilibrium path adjustment asymmetry and suggesting that the positive and negative variations must be accounted for in designing the policymaking process to enforce stable exchange rate movement by comparing the linear and nonlinear models we find that the two models are complementary and that each is horizon bound in its forecasting ability

parametric and semi parametric estimation of the binary response model of labour market participation this paper compares the familiar probit model with three semiparametric estimators of binary response models in an application to labour market participation of married women this exercise is performed using two different cross section data sets from switzerland and germany for the swiss data the probit specification cannot be rejected and the models yield similar results in the german case the probit model is rejected but the coefficient estimates do not vary substantially across the models the predicted choice probabilities however differ systematically for a subset of the sample the results of this paper indicate that more work is necessary on specification tests of semiparametric models and on simulations using these models

determinants of out of pocket pharmaceutical expenditure and access to drugs in catalonia this article examines the determinants of the demand for pharmaceuticals in catalonia using the latest available official survey data having accounted for the individual differences in cost sharing among consumers as well as the influence of self medication the article builds a model of the household determinants of pharmaceutical expenditure and consumption the econometric application deals with the infrequency of purchases and the nondistinction between out of pocket spending and drug cost sharing our results suggest that income and the variables accounting for the effect of cost sharing were significantly associated with drug use but not drug expenditure furthermore gender health status and having health insurance appear to be significant predictors access to pharmacies increases both drug use and expenditure self medication also increases drug expenditure out of pocket these results are relevant for the entire spanish case where current reform proposals have recommended the introduction o

applying the copula approach to sample selection modelling the limited availability of tractable multivariate distributions undermines the validity of the standard parametric approach to sample selection modelling copula distributions can be very useful in situations where the applied researcher has a prior on the distributional form of the margins since the modelling of the latter is separated from that of the dependence structure the present article first presents an application to female work data afterwards the approach is analysed in an application to contingent valuation data on recreational values of forests it is shown that the copula approach is especially beneficial in case of strong departures from the hypothesis of normality

does euro or dollar pegging impact the real exchange rate the case of oil and commodity currencies the aim of this paper is to investigate the equilibrium exchange rates for commodity and oil currencies as well as the discrepancies of their observed exchange rates to these equilibriums to this end first we estimate a long term relationship between the real effective exchange rate and economic fundamentals including the commodity terms of trade the estimation relies on panel cointegration techniques and covers annual data from 1980 to 2007 our results show that real exchange rates co move with commodity prices in the long run and respond to oil price somewhat less than to commodity prices second we assess the degree of misalignment of these currencies as the gap between their observed exchange rate and the estimated equilibrium exchange rate we show that these misalignments are not significantly related to the exchange rate regimes adopted by the countries either pegged or floating however for pegged currencies the size of misalignments significantly depends on the anchor currency either the euro or the dollar a comparison of misalignments of pegged commodity and oil currencies across different periods confirms these results during periods of dollar euro overvaluation currencies pegged to the dollar euro tend to be overvalued the reverse being true when the dollar euro is undervalued consequently pegged currencies are often driven away from their equilibria by wild fluctuations in the key currencies on which they are anchored

exchange rate fluctuations and stability in the oil market abstract this paper attempts to assess the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the ability of opec to stabilize the oil market since oil prices are denominated in us dollars changes in the exchange rate parity influence the cost of imported oil of major european countries and japan which in turn influences the demand for oil and eventually demand for opec oil these variations become important factors for the stability of the market when opec output is at either maximum or minimum limits of the organization s production capacity

health care insurance and the contract choice effect i introduction it is well known that consumers anticipate some aspects of their medical care consumption examples include obstetrical services dental procedures vision care outpatient mental health services and minor elective surgery so that medical care demand anticipation influences the choice of health insurance coverage in turn the characteristics of the chosen plan set the degree of cost sharing and therefore the net price that the consumer faces which is given by the percentage of cost sharing times the gross price of medical care this net price influences the consumer s actual demand for the broad range of medical services 1 in this way insurance choice is influenced by particular anticipated utilization and actual general utilization is influenced by the selected insurance plan health insurance choice and medical service demand are interdependent although this interdependence has been noted in the literature few researchers have attempted to model it 2 and none have explicated its implications for consumer demand behavior and the ensuing econometric analysis of medical care demand we do so in this article using an intertemporal model that highlights the role of expectations in the insurance choice medical care demand interaction under uncertainty we show that the medical care demand response to a change in its gross price consists of two separate components the standard neoclassical demand effect and an insurance contract choice effect when the gross price of medical care changes the net price to the consumer is altered for a fixed degree of cost sharing however a change in the gross price can prompt a change in the intended choice of health plan causing a change in the degree of cost sharing for example if the gross price of medical care rises our consumer may choose to pay a higher premium for an insurance policy that is more generous one that has a lower cost sharing percentage in this case the net price which first increased exogenously would now decrease endogenously the health insurance contract choice effect can play an important role in determining the consumer s observable demand response to a change in the gross price of medical care the standard medical care demand curve could be less responsive because of it and econometric studies of the price elasticity of medical care that ignore it which is typically the case in the literature would produce estimates that are erroneous furthermore although somewhat remote the contract choice effect opens the door to a perverse outcome a medical care demand curve that is upward sloping this could occur when the contract choice effect is very strong ii the model we consider an individual consumer who faces a single period two stage planning problem in the first stage the consumer makes an ex ante choice of insurance plan at the time this choice is made he knows his income for the period all prices including the gross price of medical care and his current health status however he is uncertain about his future health status in the second stage during which health status uncertainty is resolved the consumer makes ex post decisions about purchases of medical care and other goods in the first stage the consumer chooses from a variety of health insurance policies with varying characteristics the simplest has a deductible of some amount e g 250 per person 750 per family a percentage cost share e g consumer pays 20 the insurance provider 80 of each episode and a cap on total dollar outlay beyond which the insurer pays 100 of remaining expenses other policies place more emphasis on co payments e g consumer pays 20 to a physician for an office visit the insurance provider pays the balance of the negotiated cost and some policies combine all of these elements co pays for office visits 20 80 cost shares for hospital stays different mixes of percentage cost shares depending on services that are out of network in network but not preferred provider and so on

oil prices and exchange rates the quotations show a sharply divergent pattern in the response of the foreign exchange market to announcements of oil price increases during the first oil shock news about oil price rises led to a strengthening of the dollar whereas during the i979 surge of oil prices the reverse was generally true when the news was not so bad as feared the dollar fell back in i974 but rose in i979 in 1980 the pattern shifted once again back to dollar appreciation is there a rational fundamental explanation for the behaviour of the foreign exchange market or is it a matter of traders responding to what other traders arbitrarily think it is difficult to resolve this question but some insight can be provided through an analytical examination of the relationship between oil price increases and exchange rates the paper begins with a theoretical framework for analysing the relation between oil prices and exchange rates and then uses the theory to explain the behaviour of the foreign exchange market

a note on the estimation of models with sample selection biases abstract econometric models with sample selection biases are widely used in various fields of economics such as labor economics heckman s two step estimator is widely used to estimates these models this paper points out some limitations and problems of heckman s two step estimator

semiparametric estimation of consumer demand systems with micro data maximum likelihood and two step estimators of censored demand systems yield biased and inconsistent parameter estimates when the assumed joint distribution of disturbances is incorrect this paper proposes a semiparametric estimator that retains the computational advantage of the two step approach but is immune to distributional misspecification the key difference between the proposed estimator and the two step estimator is that the parameters of the binary censoring equations are estimated using a distribution free single index model we implement the proposed estimator using household level data obtained from the hainan province in china specification test lends support to our approach

the us dollar and the world oil market abstract due to the increasing value of the dollar world oil prices rose rather than fell relative to the price of oecd exports between 1980 and 1984 the real crude oil price of oecd countries increased by approximately 30 more than its counterpart for the usa this paper calculates that if oecd oil prices had not risen but followed the trend for us prices world oil demand in 1984 would have been about 3 million barrels per day 6 6 higher than otherwise two plausible scenarios which assume the same nominal oil price us inflation rate and oecd growth rate but different values for the dollar are considered world oil consumption by 1990 could vary by 4 million barrels per day depending upon shifts in the exchange rates and the value of the dollar this variation is comparable to the range associated with significant differences in the economic growth rate between now and 1990 the paper shows that shifts in exchange rates could produce changes in oil prices in 1990 comparable to the effects of gradually removing 5 million barrels per day from total oil production by 1990

the influence of the international oil prices on the real effective exchange rate in romania in a wavelet transform framework article i nfo the purpose of this paper is to assess the empirical influence of oil prices on the real effective exchange rate in romania in a wavelet transform framework more precisely we investigate to what extent oil prices impact the real effective exchange rate in an eastern european transition country characterised by a low level of retail fuel prices and by an important growth rate of these prices as compared to the other eu countries for this purpose we use a discrete wavelet transform approach and scale by scale granger causality tests we find that oil prices have a strong influence on the real effective exchange rate in the short run but also for large time horizons these results are important considering the fact that in a classical granger causality linear framework for the entire sample we find that oil prices have no influence on the real effective exchange rate the findings remainrobust whenresampling the initial 1986 2009period orwhen weuse analternative continuous wavelet transform in addition we discover that mainly the positive shocks associated with an increase in oil prices have an impact upon the real effective exchange rate movements in the short and long runs

interdependence of oil prices and stock market indices a copula approach article i nfo article history in this paper we study the relationship between the oil price and stock market index of various countries between 1982 and 2007 we exclude oil and gas stock companies from the stock indices to remove the obvious direct linkage oil price series are converted into local currency to account for possible exchange rate effects the method of copula is used to model the general dependence between stock returns and oil price returns our findings suggest a weak dependence between oil prices and stock indices for most cases which are consistent with the results from previous studies exceptions are for the stock index returns of large oil consuming and producing countries united states and canada which are shown to have a relatively strong dependence with the oil price series the introduction of euro in 1999 altered considerably dependence between oil prices and stock returns

oil currencies in the face of oil shocks what can be learned from time varying specifications abstractwhile the oil currency property is clearly established from a theoretical viewpoint its existence is less clear cut in the empirical literature we investigate the reasons for this apparent puzzle by studying the time varying nature of the relationship between real effective exchange rates of five oil exporters and the real price of oil in the aftermath of the oil price shocks of the last two decades accordingly we rely on a time varying parameter var specification which allows the responses of real exchange rates to different oil price shocks to evolve over time we find that the reason of the mixed results obtained in the empirical literature is that oil currencies follow different hybrid models in the sense that oil countries real exchange rates may be driven by one or several sources of oil price shocks that furthermore can vary over time in addition to structural changes affecting oil countries structural changes arising from the oil market itself through the various time varying sour