does skill obsolescence increase the risk of employment loss in this article we analyse whether technological change induces skill obsolescence and early labour market exit and to what extent training participation and on the job learning reduce these risks using panel data on older workers we find that workers report skill obsolescence more often when learning is a structural characteristic of the job this perceived skill obsolescence is not related to a higher probability of losing employment instead workers who experience skill obsolescence appear to learn more on the job and participate more often in training which decreases the risk of losing employment these results are consistent with the dynamic model of skill obsolescence and employment loss we develop in this article moreover we find that when workers with long job tenures decrease their training participation this is an early indicator of future job loss

income adjustments and the role of consumers durables in some leading consumption functions in a seminal study davidson et al i978 hereafter dhsy introduced the error correction form of the consumption function this has proved to be robust to new data and different time periods see hendry i983 and has formed the basis of the consumption equations in several macroeconometric models see davis i 984 in subsequent studies hendry and von ungern sternberg i 98i hereafter hus and von ungern sternberg i 98 i modified the dhsy equation in a number of ways one of particular interest herein was to redefine the income measure to net out the effect of gains or losses due to inflation on liquid assets we consider here two related potential improvements to these widely used consumption functions one concerns the appropriate definition of income if there are not only liquid assets which suffer a value loss under certain conditions but also durable goods which depreciate the other is related to this and concerns an appropriate specification of the steady state consumption function whether static or dynamic for non durables which we take to include services which recognises the existence of durable consumption goods it is argued that if care is not taken the dhsy equation implies a misspecification which leads to an over estimate of the mean lag relating the consumption of non durables to income

technological change and retirement decisions of older workers according to human capital theory technological change will influence the retirement decisions of older workers in two ways first workers in industries with high rates of technological change will retire later if there is a net positive correlation between technological change and on the job training second an unexpected change in the rate of technological change will induce older workers to retire sooner because the required amount of retraining will be an unattractive investment we matched industry data on productivity growth and occupational data on required training with data from the national longitudinal surveys of older men to test these hypotheses our results support both hypotheses

life cycle equilibrium unemployment this paper extends the job creation job destruction approach to the labor market to take into account a deterministic finite horizon as hirings and separations depend on the time over which investment costs can be recouped the life cycle setting implies age differentiated labor market flows while search by the unemployed falls with age the separation rate is rather u shaped over the life cycle worker heterogeneity in the context of undirected search implies an intergenerational externality which is not eliminated by the hosios condition we show that age specific policies are required to attain the first best allocation

the economics of has beens the evolution of technology causes human capital to become obsolete we study this phenomenon in an overlapping generations setting assuming that technology evolves stochastically and that older workers find updating uneconomic experience and learning by doing may offer the old some income protection but technology advance always turns them into has beens to some degree we focus on the determinants demand elasticities persistence of technology change etc of the severity of the has beens effect it can be large even leading to negatively sloped within occupation age earnings profiles and an occupation dominated by a few young high income workers architecture displays the sort of features the theory identifies as magnifying the has beens effect and both anecdotes and some data suggest that the has beens effect in architecture is extreme indeed

creating modern art the changing careers of painters in france from impressionism to cubism paul cezanne died in october 1906 at the age of 67 in time he would be generally regarded as the most influential painter who had worked in the nineteenth century e g clive bell 1982 clement greenberg 1993 art historians and critics would also agree that his greatest achievement was the work he did late in his life in the judgment of historian meyer schapiro for example the years from 1890 to his death in 1906 are a period of magnificent growth meyer schapiro 1952 theodore reff 1977 roger fry 1989 in the spring of 1907 25 year old pablo picasso showed a few friends a large new painting that would be given the title les demoiselles d avignon this would become the most important painting of the twentieth century as the forerunner of cubism the most complete and radical artistic revolution since the renaissance which picasso and his friend georges braque went on to create in the next few years john golding 1988 galenson 2001 picasso would paint for another 66 years until his death in 1973 at the age of 92 during this enormously productive career he would become by far the most celebrated artist of the twentieth century yet he would never again execute a painting as important as the demoiselles nor produce another body of work as significant as that he made in the years between 1907 and the outbreak of world war i the dramatic contrast between the careers of cezanne and picasso raises intriguing questions about artists productivity art historians have not systematically addressed the question of when in their careers modem artists have typically done their best work and previous research consequently affords no basis for judging whether it is simply a matter of chance that cezanne and picasso made their greatest contributions so close in time in spite of the difference of more than 40 years in their ages but research by psychologists on the ages at which successful practitioners in other disciplines have done their best work is suggestive mathematicians theoretical physicists and poets typically make their most important contributions at younger ages than do astronomers biologists and novelists psychologists have argued that this is because creative ideations can be produced and elaborated more rapidly in disciplines that deal with abstract conceptual entities than in those whose central ideas are more complex and concrete harvey c lehman 1953 dean keith simonton 1988 1994 economists have also identified a number of factors that can change the relationship between age and productivity within a given activity yoram ben porath 1967 anne p bartel and nachum sicherman 1993 1995 in view of these results for other disciplines and the potential for change considered by economists we argue that it was not a matter of chance that cezanne and picasso made their greatest contributions at such different ages but rather that this was a result of the process that gave rise to the creation and early development of modem painting under the influence of the increased demand for innovation that had prompted the beginning of modern painting new generations of artists made painting an increasingly conceptual activity in which young practitioners could make important advances we will use evidence drawn from the twentieth century auction market to examine the relationship between artists ages and the value of their paintings for a group of artists including cezanne and picasso who dominated that early development this will allow a test of the hypothesis that this relationship changed systematically during the first century of that art galenson department of economics university of chicago chicago il 60637 and national bureau of economic research weinberg department of economics ohio state university columbus oh 43210 we thank gary becker britt salvesen tom sargent and two anonymous referees for comments and thomas walker for research assistance

outsourcing and unionization a tale of misallocated resistance resources while many believe the growth in outsourcing contributed to the decline in u s unionization up to the 1990s this argument has never been investigated systematically in this article we analyze the effect of outsourcing on unionization between 1973 and 1993 instrumental variables estimation shows outsourcing contributes to higher quasirents and industry productivity we find the union wage premium increases with the extent of outsourcing both for workers that are substitutable by outsourcing services and workers in jobs that are not substitutes of the tasks being outsourced finally we find no support for the claim that outsourcing reduces unionization jel j5 l2 l6

technology and the wage structure this article reports direct evidence on how technological change is related to changes in wage gaps by schooling experience and gender wage gaps by schooling increased the most in industries with rising r d intensity and accelerating growth in the capital labor ratio estimates of their relationship to high tech capital are inconclusive contrary to popular notions that technological change harms older workers wage growth of experienced workers is much greater in r d intensive industries than in industries with little r d activity the gender gap narrowed more in industries that most intensively used high tech capital in 1979

employment transitions and computer use of older workers in our work we study the role of information and communication technology ict skills and their utilization in the retirement decision we provide empirical evidence based on italian panel data in favour of the hypothesis that ceteris paribus better educated male employees with ict know how retire later such effect is stronger the longer the time horizon considered and its magnitude is remarkably larger than the one observed in us and germany in previous studies we also document that ict do not play a crucial role in the retirement decision of women our results are robust to the estimation strategy adopted

an empirical analysis of the role of the medium of exchange in mergers in empirical studies of differences between firms which are acquired and those which are not researchers typically divide firms into two groups acquired and nonacquired in this paper we argue that cash takeovers may be sufficiently different from noncash acquisitions that failure to distinguish between them may lead to inappropriate generalizations we provide evidence from the mid 1970s that three categories of firms can be distinguished nonacquired acquired in a cash takeover and acquired in an exchange of securities there is a substantial empirical literature exploring the differences between firms which are acquired and those which are not typically these studies divide firms into two groups acquired and nonacquired and analyze the differences in the characteristics of the two groups using binary dependent variable techniques such as discriminant analysis or probit analysis a fundamental shortcoming of these studies is that no distinctions are made concerning the nature of the merger or the acquiring firm that is it is assumed that acquired firms fall into a single category that is distinguishable from nonacquired firms in fact individual acquisitions may be motivated by quite different features suggesting that more than a single category of acquired firms should be analyzed in this paper we argue that cash takeovers may be sufficiently different from noncash acquisitions that modeling the events as being the same i e just mergers may be inappropriate we then provide evidence using data for the mid 1970s that three types of firms can be distinguished nonacquired acquired in a cash takeover and acquired in an exchange of securities the paper is organized as follows in the next section we suggest why firms acquired for cash may be quite different from firms acquired by an exchange of securities section ii describes the empirical techniques which are used and

seniority wages and the role of firms in retirement in general retirement is seen as a pure labor supply phenomenon but firms can have strong incentives to send expensive older workers into retirement based on considerations about wage costs and replacement costs we discuss steep seniority wage profiles as incentives for firms to dismiss older workers before retirement conditional on individual retirement incentives e g social security wealth accrual rates or health status the steepness of the wage profile will have different incentives for workers as compared to firms to maintain the employment relationship using an instrumental variable approach to account for selection of workers in our firms and for reverse causality we find that firms with higher labor costs for older workers have on average a lower job exit age and a higher incidence of golden handshakes author s abstract

skills mismatch concepts measurement and policy approaches the term skills mismatch is very broad and can relate to many forms of labour market friction including vertical mismatch skill gaps skill shortages field of study horizontal mismatch and skill obsolescence in this paper we provide a clear overview of each concept and discuss the measurement and inter relatedness of different forms of mismatch we present a comprehensive analysis of the current position of the literature on skills mismatch and highlight areas which are relatively underdeveloped and may warrant further research using data from the european skills and jobs survey we assess the incidence of various combinations of skills mismatch across the eu finally we review the european commission s country specific recommendations and find that skills mismatch when referring to underutilized human capital in the form of overeducation and skills underutilization receives little policy attention in cases where skills mismatch forms part of policy recommendations the policy advice is either vague or addresses the areas of mismatch for which there is the least available evidence

monetary economic myth and econometric reality few of the main macro economic forecasting systems can produce sensible forecasts without the tender loving care of their proprietors many econometric equations in com mon use show significant deterioration in the accuracy with which they characterise data as time passes and many economists are sceptical about empirical evidence feeling it lacks credibility monetary relationships have the dubious distinction of being among the leaders in this field as witnessed by the very large mispredictions of m1 models in the usa over what is now known as the missing money period 1973 76 as well as during the recent great velocity decline 1979 82 in the uk models of m1 and m3 demand experienced large structural breaks following the competition and credit control regu lation changes and the move to floating exchange rates perhaps it is no surprise that goodhart s law should have been formulated with respect to money demand equations

the impact of r d investment on productivity new evidence using linked r d lrd data the impact of r d investment on productivity new evidence using linked r d lrd data this paper uses confidential census longitudinal microdata to examine the association between r d and productivity for the period 1972 1985 these data allow for significant improvements in measurement and model specification yielding more precise estimates of the returns to r d our results confirm the findings of existing studies 1 positive returns to r d investment 2 higher returns to company financed research 3 a productivity premium on basic research these results are robust to adjustments for influential outliers also our evidence suggests that the return to company financed r d is an increasing function of firm size i introduction robert solow s studies in the late 1950s dramatically changed perceptions of the sources of economic growth until this time the commonly held view was that improvements in economic welfare were achieved primarily through the use of more inputs in particular capital input however solow 1957 reported that only 10 percent of the twofold rise in u s per capita output during the years 1909 1949 was due to growth in the capital labor ratio the remainder was attributed to more efficient use of inputs or technological change solow also established a framework for estimating technological change a productivity residual or a measure of changes in output that could not be explained by changes in input use the solow residual in modified form has become virtually synonymous with the measurement of total factor productivity tfp growth jorgenson and griliches 1967 demonstrated that under the assumptions of constant returns to scale and competitive factor pricing changes in total factor productivity measure shifts in a production function rather than treat technological change as exogenous or manna from heaven many economists have explored its determinants r d investment is generally regarded as having a strong impact on productivity growth empirical analysis of the r d productivity connection has often been based on estimation of reduced form equations derived from the r d capital stock model griliches 1979 which extends the solow model to include the stock of technical knowledge or knowledge capital as a factor of production in addition to the standard factors of production physical capital labor intermediate materials and energy if the rate of depreciation of knowledge capital is assumed to be negligible tfp growth dtfp is a function of the intensity of r d investment rdint which is usually measured as the ratio of r d expenditure to sales 1 dtf p sub t alpha beta rdin t sub t u sub t where u sub t is a classical disturbance term the coefficient on r d intensity beta is interpreted as both the marginal product of knowledge capital and the rate of return to r d investment 1 estimates of beta at the company or line of business level are interpreted as measures of the private rate of return to r d or those that accrue to the firm or its investors due to incomplete appropriability or other factors this return may not equal the social return to this activity most empirical studies especially those based on aggregate and sectoral data have found evidence of a strong positive correlation between tfp growth and r d investment however results using firm level data have been mixed the finding that these two variables are uncorrelated is cause for concern because it implies that firms may not be able to earn significant returns on their investment in r d making them less likely to undertake this investment in the future even if it is socially desirable for them to do so we believe that it is important to reestimate this relationship because it is highly likely that existing firm level studies have been based on measures of tfp that are crude imprecise and unrepresentative

housing assets and consumer spending a regional analysis carruth a and henley a 1993 housing assets and consumer spending a regional analysis reg studies 27 611 621 this paper is concerned with the relationship between the housing market and consumer spending for the eleven standard regions of the uk pooled regional cross sectional and annual time series data are used to appraise the effect of housing assets on regional consumer spending in the 1980s a fixed effects estimator imposing common slope coefficients across the regions is employed and this assumption is tested using the sure estimator estimates of a dhsy specification of the consumption function and a model augmented with housing assets are compared the fixed effects models perform quite well indicating that the growth in regional housing equity has had a positive impact on regional consumer spending the sure results indicate that the assumption of common regional responses of consumer spending to the explanatory variables is not valid and that the housing wealth effect is strongest in

life cycle individual thrift and the wealth of nations this paper provides a review of the theory of the determinants of individual and national thrift that has come to be known as the life cycle hypothesis lch of saving applications to some current policy issues are also discussed part i deals with the state of the art on the eve of the formulation of the lch some 30 years ago part ii sets forth the theoretical foundations of the model in its original formulation and later amendment calling attention to various implications distinctive to it and sometimes counter intuitive it also includes a review of a number of crucial empirical tests both at the individual and the aggregate level part iii reviews some applications of lch to current policy issues though only in sketchy fashion as space constraints prevent fuller discussion this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the construction of tender offers capital gains taxes and the free rider problem shareholders are less likely to tender shares in the first stage of a two tier offer than in an any or all offer this is inconsistent with the view that two tier offers overcome the free rider problem this article shows that two tier offers with a fully taxable first stage and a nontaxable second stage are structured to induce shareholders with low capital gains tax liabilities to accept the first stage and shareholders with high capital gains tax liabilities to accept the second stage in offers where both the first and second stage compensations are taxable high tendering rates occur in the first stage copyright 1988 by the university of chicago

the effect of poison pill securities on shareholder wealth abstract this paper examines empirical evidence about the effect of poison pill takeover defenses on shareholder wealth i find evidence that announcements of the most restrictive forms of the pill defense are associated with stock price declines also the most restrictive forms of the pill defense are associated with abnormally high rates of defeat of unsolicited tender offers although this evidence is consistent with managerial entrenchment the evidence implies that on average poison pill defenses have seemingly had only a modest effect on firm valuation

optimal stock trading with personal taxes implications for prices and the abnormal january returns abstract the tax law confers upon the investor a timing option to realize capital losses and defer capital gains with the tax rate on long term gains and losses being about half the short term rate the law provides a second timing option to realize losses short term and gains long term if at all our theory and simulation over the 1962 1977 period establish that taxable investors should realize long term gains in high variance stocks and repurchase stock in order to realize potential future losses short term tax trading does not explain the small firm anomaly but predicts a seasonal pattern in trading volume which maps into a seasonal pattern in stock prices the january anomaly only if investors are irrational or ignorant of the price seasonality

voluntary and involuntary early retirement an international analysis recent literature makes a distinction between voluntary and involuntary early retirement where involuntary early retirement results from employment constraints rather than from a preference for leisure relative to work this article analyses voluntary and involuntary early retirement based on international microdata covering 19 industrialized countries the results show that involuntary early retirement is particularly widespread in continental europe countries facing economic recessions and having strict employment protection legislation have higher shares of involuntary retirements among early retirees generous early retirement provisions of the social security system do not only make voluntary early retirement more attractive for individuals but also induce firms to push more employees to retire early

the determinants of tendering rates in interfirm and self tender offers the authors estimate the determinants of shareholder heterogeneity by examining the shareholder responses to fixed price self tender offers and two tier interfirm tender offers tendering rates are increased in the cash price relative to the postoffer price of the stock proxies for capital gains tax liabilities also explain tendering rates controlling for the cash tender relative to the postoffer price of the stock the authors find that tendering rates are significantly higher in interfirm tender offers than in self tender offers which indicates that shareholders view accepting another firm s stock as an unattractive means of avoiding capital gains copyright 1992 by university of chicago press

the distribution of regional earnings in the uk utilizing a micro sample of 7317 individuals extracted from the general household survey 1973 we show that money earnings and real earnings vary considerably across british regions even when other factors such as education and industry mix are held constant we also find that real earnings do not follow the pattern of money earnings if anything quite the reverse whereas monetary rewards are the greatest in the south east of england real rewards are the greatest in the midlands and the north east of england scottish regions however appear to fare the worst in both money and real terms

the consumption function in macroeconomic models a comparative study 1984 the consumption function in macroeconomic models a comparative study applied economics vol 16 no 6 pp 799 838

data feature earnings biases in the united kingdom regional accounts some economic policy and research implications between the late 1970s and late 1980s the uk regional accounts data suggest a much smaller rise in the south east earnings premium and consequently a much smaller increase in the regional dispersion of earnings than do the other sources of data we discuss several possible explanations for this discrepancy and conclude it was probably due to problems at the inland revenue in allocating tax records across the regions the historical unreliability of the regional accounts has implications for economic research on regional consumption and convergence and may have caused the poorest regions to miss out on eu structural funds this paper argues that united kingdom regional accounts data on income from employment and hence personal income and gross domestic product per head for the last 20 years give a misleading picture of the development of regional differentials these data are published in economic trends and regional trends and are widely used they have informed public debates about such topics as scottish and welsh devolution they are an important input for policy towards the english regions and for wales scotland and northern ireland and are used to define the income criteria by which a

regional differences in personal savings regional data on consumers expenditure and disposable income are analysed using a conventional error correction specification in an attempt to explain regional disparities in the average propensity to save pooling time series and cross section data the model is quite successful though some degree of remaining ignorance is reflected in a few significant regional dummy variables arising out of the covariance model among the important determinants of saving and consumption are regional unemployment and housing wealth the latter gives limited support to the proposition that burgeoning house prices in the south east may be fuelling a consumption and import boom

seniority sectoral decline and employee retention an analysis of layoff unemployment spells we investigate the effect of tenure on employee retention under varying labor market conditions using a competing risks analysis of recall and new job acceptance applied to layoff unemployment spell data from waves 15 and 16 1982 83 of the panel study of income dynamics we find that adverse conditions sectoral employment decline significantly reduce the positive tenure effect on recall probabilities this result is consistent with firm default on delayed payment contracts and does not appear to reflect the effect of technological change on the value of firm specific investments

training and retirement patterns life cycle theory predicts that employers enter into implicit contracts with newly hired employees to ensure rent sharing and to decrease turnover after firm specific training investments typically these implicit contracts would include both upward sloping earning profiles and mandatory retirement in this article we empirically test the prediction that workers with firm specific skills are restrained in their options to continue working therefore they are more likely to retire at common mandatory retirement dates than those with general skills using the us national longitudinal survey of older men we find that workers who participated in firm specific training in their early careers do indeed retire earlier than those with general skills the results show that compulsory retirement plans force these older workers to retire when they reach the common mandatory retirement age of 65 the results presented in this article are highly relevant for public policies in european and other industrialized cou

the mode of acquisition in takeovers taxes and asymmetric information we develop a model in which the mode of acquisition conveys information concerning the value of the bidder the model incorporates the possibility that offers containing both cash and stock can be made in a setting consistent with the u s tax code we demonstrate that bidders with unfavorable private information about their equity value choose offers containing some stock to avoid the capital gains tax consequences of cash offers the model yields a number of unique predictions about the construction of acquisition offers we present evidence consistent with the model when one firm acquires another it can pay for the acquisition with cash stock or a combination of the two recent studies find that announcement returns to bidding firms who make cash offers are higher than when stock offers are made models consistent with this evidence note that as in myers and majluf 1984 a bidder with private information about the value of its assets only offers stock when its shares are overvalued by target shareholders recognizing this adverse selection target shareholders reduce their estimate of the bidder s value thus without some benefit in stock over cash as a means of payment a lemons problem arises for stock offers and bidders only choose cash offers our paper advances the use of stock in an offer through its tax advantages in the united states to realize the benefits available in nontaxable offers an offer must contain at least fifty percent stock thus when the bidder has private information about the value of its assets stock off6rs can still occur because of their tax advantage the intuition is as follows target holders can postpone the realization of capital gains when they receive stock in a takeover so other things equal they demand higher prices in cash takeovers while the offer of stock may have tax advantages the shares swapped are valued by the target as if they were offered by the average bidder making a stock offer thus a pool of higher private valuation bidder types choose cash offers in spite of the tax consequences a pool of lower private valuation types

technical progress and early retirement this paper claims that technical progress induces early retirement of older workers it presents a model where human capital is technology specific so that technical progress erodes some existing human capital this affects mostly older workers who have a smaller incentive to learn the new technology since their career horizon is shorter hence they tend to work less we find support to this erosion effect in hrs data which shows that retirement and unemployment of older workers are positively related to technical progress in their sectors unlike the effect across sectors the model is ambiguous about the aggregate effect of technical progress on labor supply of older workers while in sectors with many innovations it falls due to the erosion effect in other sectors it increases due to higher wages to examine which effect dominates we run a time series test using us data and find that the rate of average technical progress reduces aggregate labor force participation by the old namely the erosion effect dominates

the replacement problem in frictional economies a near equivalence result we examine how technological change affects wage inequality and unemployment in a calibrated model of matching frictions in the labor market we distinguish between two polar cases studied in the literature a creative destruction economy where new machines enter chiefly through new matches and an upgrading economy where machines in existing matches are replaced by new machines our main results are i these two economies produce very similar quantitative outcomes and ii the total amount of wage inequality generated by frictions is very small we explain these findings in light of the fact that in the model calibrated to the us economy both unemployment and vacancy durations are very short i e the matching frictions are quantitatively minor hence the equilibrium allocations of the model are remarkably close to those of a frictionless version of our economy where firms are indifferent between upgrading and creative destruction and where every worker is paid the same market clearing wage these results are robust to the inclusion of machine specific or match specific heterogeneity into the benchmark model jel j41 j64 o33

firm size earnings and displacement risk rudolf winter ebmer analogous to the well documented firm size wage differential there also exists a differential in layoff risk according to firm size using austrian data i discuss several reasons for this puzzle including on the job training and workers heterogeneity if less stable and also less able workers select themselves into small unstable and low paying firms predicted layoff risk of workers can be used as a proxy for heterogeneity of workers and therefore be included in wage regressions doing this one half of the size earnings premium can be explained jel j31 j63 i introduction large employers pay more numerous empirical studies have documented this relationship 1 but they have not been able to explain it in a very careful study brown and medoff 1989 1056 look at ten possible reasons for this puzzle only to conclude our bottom line is that the size wage differential appears to be both sizable and omnipresent our analysis leaves us uncomfortably unable to explain it or at least the part of it that is not explained by observable indicators of labor quality neither compensating differentials for working conditions nor product market power or the threat of unionization were able to explain the size premium brown and medoff 1989 also found size effects for piece rate workers for unionized workers 2 and in longitudinal samples 3 where they controlled by first differencing for unobserved heterogeneity of the individuals given this wide interest in the effects of employer size on earnings very little research has been done concerning size differentials in turnover are the jobs in big firms not only higher paid but also more stable this would reinforce the puzzle of firm size once more anderson and meyer 1994 look at separation rates without distinguishing between quit and layoff and find highly decreasing turnover rates with firm size for permanent separations but no size effect on temporary separations 4 brown and medoff 1989 as well as others find quit rates to decline with firm size which speaks against compensating wage differentials arguments idson 1996 explicitly looks at the issue of long term employment relationships in large establishments which may be possibly due to the greater capacity of large employers to provide job mobility within the enterprise and the lower probability of business failure facing larger firms rebitzer 1986 argues that the observed higher job tenure in large plants is in a ccordance with labor market segmentation theory the aim of this article is to provide further evidence for a size layoff relationship using austrian data i try to consider several explanations for this regularity especially on the job training and the hypothesis of selective recruitment of workers into large and small firms following one hypothesis small employers attract less stable and capable employees a pattern that would cause only a spurious size layoff relationship on the other hand if workers with a relatively low stock of human capital sort themselves into relatively inefficient firms with unstable employment prospects then the size wage effect itself may be upwardly biased which was noted by mayo and murray 1991 the plan of the article is as follows section ii presents institutional details on wage bargaining and employment protection legislation in austria the data for the empirical study are discussed in section iii results for size wage and size layoff relationships are presented in section iv section v looks at the interaction between firm size layoff risk and wage determination section vi concludes ii wage bargaining institutions and job security legislation in austria wage bargaining in austria is very centralized even though only about 60 of workers are organized in unions bargaining outcomes are extended to all workers unionized or not a works council has to be established under the austrian labor law in all establishments employing at least five adult workers but usually the actual existence of a works council is positively determined by both firm size and firm age