monitoring changes in economy wide energy efficiency from energy gdp ratio to composite efficiency index since the 1973 world oil crisis monitoring trends in energy efficiency at the economy wide level has been an important component of energy strategy in many countries to support this effort various energy efficiency related indicators have been developed we examine some classical indicators which are often found in national and international energy studies in the 1970s and 1980s we then describe the recent developments in using the index decomposition analysis to give an economy wide composite energy efficiency index based on a bottom up approach this composite index is superior to the classical indicators as an economy wide energy efficiency measure and has lately been adopted by a growing number of countries for national energy efficiency trend monitoring

credit constraints and the phenomenon of child labor abstract this paper develops an overlapping generations general equilibrium model where inefficient child labor arises due to credit constraints it derives a positive relationship between inequality in the distribution of income and the incidence of child labor looking at policy implications it shows how trade sanctions against countries using child labor may fail to reduce the incidence of child labor it discusses some alternative policies to reduce the incidence of child labor

hicks s thread out of the equilibrium labyrinth the work of john hicks is an unending source of inspiration for many economists and an unsolved dilemma for historians of economic thought these pages highlight the fact that hicks peculiar perspective on the economic agent constitutes the substructure underlying his research path and the common premise to his theories of markets liquidity capital and risk hicks theory of the agent was intended to address the factual role of non measurable risk i e learning management and was primarily concerned with the price and wealth effects that the transaction costs costs of learning and moving entail for learning induced behaviours

the microfinance promise in the past decade microfinance programs have demonstrated that it is possible to lend to low income households while maintaining high repayment rates even without requiring collateral the programs promise a revolution in approaches to alleviating poverty and spreading financial services and millions of poor households are served globally a growing body of economic theory demonstrates how new contractual forms offer a key to microfinance success particularly the use of group lending contracts with joint liability for the most part however high repayment rates have not translated into profits and studies of impacts on poverty yield a mixed picture in describing emerging tensions the paper highlights the diversity of innovative mechanisms beyond group lending contracts the measurement of financial sustainability the estimation of economic and social impacts the costs and benefits of subsidization and the potential to reduce poverty through savings programs rather than just credit the promise of microfinance has pushed far ahead of the evidence and an agenda is put forward for addressing critical empirical gaps and sharpening the terms of policy discussion

international inequality in energy intensity levels and the role of production composition and energy efficiency an analysis of oecd countries abstract this paper analyses the inequality of energy intensity levels between oecd countries its causes and evolution the paper develops a methodology which allows the inequality in energy consumption per capita to be decomposed into explanatory factors it also analyses the contribution of different groups of countries to this inequality the results show that although differences in affluence are the most significant factor in explaining inequality in energy consumption per capita the inequality in energy intensity levels plays a prominent role in reducing the inequality in energy consumption per capita over the analysed period the paper also develops a methodology which determines the importance of different production structures and energy efficiency of productive sectors in the differences in energy use per unit of gdp between the countries analysed the results show that sector specialisation becomes increasingly important in explaining the inequality of energy intensity while there is a significant trend towards the convergence of energy efficiency between countries sector by sector this trend would explain the decreasing weight of energy intensity as an explanatory factor of the inequalities in energy consumption per capita

the relation between marginal product and price in us energy markets implications for climate change policy abstract this paper reports an empirical test of the axioms that describe the relationship between the marginal product and price of factor inputs in us energy markets to do so i estimate a reduced form of a production function that represents the amounts of various energy types that are required to produce a given level of output the partial derivative of this production function is used to calculate the change in output that is generated by a marginal change in the use of coal oil natural gas or electricity a partial adjustment model is used to estimate the relation between the marginal product and price of coal oil natural gas and electricity the results indicate that rational agents manipulate their use of coal oil natural gas and electricity so that the marginal product of these energies adjust to changes in the relative prices of these energies because the marginal products of oil and natural gas are greater than coal less than one heat unit of oil or natural gas is needed to substitute for one unit of coal and this increases the quantity of carbon emissions that can be abated by interfuel substitution the time required to achieve these reductions may be longer than thought previously because of the slow rate at which the relative marginal product adjusts to relative price

finance firm size and growth the authors examine whether financial development boosts the growth of small firms more than large firms and hence provides information on the mechanisms through which financial development fosters aggregate economic growth they define an industry s technological firm size as the firm size implied by industrial specific production technologies including capital intensities and scale economies using cross industry cross country data the results indicate that financial development exerts a disproportionately large effect on the growth of industries that are technologically more dependent on small firms this suggests that financial development accelerates economic growth by removing growth constraints on small firms and also implies that financial development has sectoral as well as aggregate growth ramifications

projecting the energy pathway using a methodological sequence the case of mexico abstract the relationship between primary energy and economic development tends to be positive however it is a complex relationship for emerging economies we use the energy pathway ep method to 1 examine this relationship 2 introduce its behavioural taxonomy and 3 propose a hybrid methodological sequence that allows to examine the historical context and to forecast the ep we apply our methodology to the mexican case an emerging economy that has had both energy intensive and energy productivity periods and changes in its development model the study was conducted by using data of a 52 year old path and explored the path may have from 2018 onwards our results are as follows first the pathway shows nine behavioural possibilities second we found that the mexican ep responds to structural changes we conclude that for the years following 2018 mexico s path will have a disturbance the main objective will be to avoid unwanted behaviour the key is to improve the relationships among the government the private sector and international agreements in order to continue the sequence of the theory on the relations between energy and development more studies are needed under a systematic analytical framework applied to both other countries and comparative studies

child labor the role of financial development and income variability across countries abstract in this article we examine the link between child labor and financial development using cross country data we show that child labor and financial development display a significant negative relationship which is particularly strong in the sample of low income countries and is robust for a wide range of specifications and estimators including fixed effects and instrumental variables we identify a plausible channel through which financial development affects child labor as we find that income variability has a sizable positive impact on child labor in countries where financial markets are underdeveloped although this is not the case when financial markets are developed our results suggest that policies aimed at widening access to credit could be effective in reducing the extent of child labor

rural income and poverty in a time of radical change in malawi abstract malawi is one of the poorest countries in africa there is widespread though not universal agreement about the shape of poverty in the country and the policy challenge this sets agriculture continues to be the most obvious means to stimulate broad based rural growth and to provide levels of food security and income needed for the majority rural population a longitudinal study over a decade during which radical policy and political changes occurred provides the data and basis for discussing the appropriate policy directions for reducing poverty

capital theory and the origins of the elasticity of substitution 1932 35 elasticity of substitution was introduced into economics during the early 1930s it was discovered independendy by hicks in the theory of wages and by joan robinson in the economics of imperfect competition and then was the centre of a polemic involving kahn and sraffa among others the debate focused on imperfect competition and capital theoretical issues some elem ents of the 1950s and 1960s capital theory controversy such as the idea of capital as a giffen good or the difficulties of measuring capital were already discussed at this early stage

towards a disequilibrium theory of endogenous economic growth this paper discusses the need for a new approach to economic growth theory the standard theory of growth in equilibrium driven by exogenous uncaused productivity gains has an implication that is both unjustified and perverse from a policy perspective that government intervention of any kind can only introduce constraints and reduce option space thus decreasing potential growth it is argued that growth theory should 1 acknowledge the importance of natural resources especially fossil fuels as a driver of past and present economic growth 2 incorporate an explicit recognition that growth is a consequence of technological innovation especially radical innovation that often responds to natural resource scarcities or other societal needs and 3 explicitly reflect the fact that the important i e scarce factors of production in economics can and do change over time i e from a rural cowboy economy of the past to an urbanized spaceship economy of the future in short it should reflect the fact that necessity is the mother of invention the first and third of these modifications have been proposed before but not in combination the third seems to be new

the impact of income and non income shocks on child labor evidence from a panel survey of tanzania summary this paper investigates the impact of income and non income shocks on child labor using a model in which the household maximizes utility from consumption as well as human capital development of the child we also investigate if access to credit and household assets act as buffers against transitory shocks our results indicate significant effects of agricultural shocks on the child s overall work hours and agricultural work hours with higher effects for boys crop shocks also have significant adverse effects on school attendance with girls experiencing a more than 70 increase in the probability of quitting schooling the results also indicate that access to a bank account has a buffering effect on the impact of shocks on child hunger having a bank account reduces both male child labor and household work hours of a girl child while assets reduce working hours of girls we do not find it having a significant effect on boys we also do not see assets to act as a buffer against shocks

jevons paradox revisited the evidence for backfire from improved energy efficiency beginning with william stanley jevons in 1865 a number of authors have claimed that economically justified energy efficiency improvements will increase rather than reduce energy consumption jevons paradox is extremely difficult to test empirically but could have profound implications for energy and climate policy this paper summarises and critiques the arguments and evidence that have been cited in support of jevons paradox focusing in particular on the work of len brookes and harry saunders it identifies some empirical and theoretical weaknesses in these arguments highlights the questions they raise for economic orthodoxy and points to some interesting parallels between these arguments and those used by the biophysical school of ecological economics while the evidence in favour of jevons paradox is far from conclusive it does suggest that economy wide rebound effects are larger than is conventionally assumed and that energy plays a more important role in driving productivity improvements and economic growth than is conventionally assumed

money interest and wages collected essays in economic theory anyone who doubts the importance of the work of sir john hicks for the development of economics in the middle decades of the twentieth century should reflect for a moment on what the average undergraduate syllabus would look like had value and capital 1 and mr keynes and the classics never been written on the other hand if anyone believes that hicks s contribution to macroeconomics began and ended with the latter work and to judge from that same average undergraduate syllabus such people do exist he could do no better than read money interest and wages although this collection of twenty four essays written between 1931 81 is by no means comprehensive it is certainly representative of hicks s work on macroeconomic issues over the period moreover because each essay is accompanied by a brief introduction putting it in its place in the canon of hicks s writings the interested reader will always be able to track down other related work if he so wishes

borrowing constraints and progress through school evidence from peru this paper investigates the effect of borrowing constraints on the timing of human capital investment in a developing country by looking at how quickly children with different family backgrounds progress through the primary school system in peru the main findings are that children start withdrawing from school earlier as indicated by repetition of grades in households with lower income and durable good holdings and when children are more closely spaced behavior also differs as predicted between children from households that appear to be borrowing constrained and those that appear unconstrained copyright 1994 by mit press

is child labor inefficient we build a model of child labor and study its implications for welfare we assume that there is a trade off between child labor and the accumulation of human capital even if parents are altruistic and child labor is socially inefficient it may arise in equilibrium because parents fail to fully internalize its negative effects this occurs when bequests are zero or when capital markets are imperfect we also study the effects of a simple ban on child labor and derive conditions under which it may be pareto improving in general equilibrium we show that the implications of child labor for fertility are ambiguous

the lmdi approach to decomposition analysis a practical guide in a recent study ang energy policy 32 2004 compared various index decomposition analysis methods and concluded that the logarithmic mean divisia index method is the preferred method since the literature on the method tends to be either too technical or specific for most potential users this paper provides a practical guide that includes the general formulation process summary tables for easy reference and examples

market work and household work as deterrents to schooling in bangladesh summary this research investigates factors that deter bangladeshi children from attending school including market work and household work examined separately the likelihood that a child will be continuously in school is estimated using separate logistic regression models for younger and older boys and girls in urban and rural areas we find that child labor decreases the probability of continuous schooling we demonstrate the importance of examining separate demographic groups as well as separate types of work finally we test the robustness of our results using three alternative measures of schooling and find that our results are robust to these three measures

financial dependence and growth revisited we revisit an earlier highly influential paper on financial dependence and growth by rajan and zingales 1998 we re examine their assumptions and the robustness of their results to alternative theories and interpretations we first show that they may be implicitly testing whether financial intermediaries allow firms to better respond to global shocks to growth opportunities rather than the extent that financial intermediaries allow firms to grow in industries with an inherent technological financial dependence we propose a more direct measure of growth opportunities if u s capital markets are perfect then actual growth in the u s is a good proxy for global growth opportunities we test this directly by including u s industry growth in rajan and zingales s original specification and find that our direct growth measure outperforms their financial dependence measure and is less vulnerable to controlling for outliers and level of development this still suggests an important role for finance in the allocation of resources but shifts the emphasis from financial dependence to global growth opportunities jel f3 g1 o4

energy intensity developments in 40 major economies structural change or technology improvement this study analyzes energy intensity trends and drivers in 40 major economies using the wiod database a novel harmonized and consistent dataset of input output table time series accompanied by environmental satellite data we use logarithmic mean divisia index decomposition to 1 study trends in global energy intensity between 1995 and 2007 2 attribute efficiency changes to either changes in technology or changes in the structure of the economy and 3 highlight sectoral and regional differences we first show that heterogeneity within each sector across countries is high these general trends within the sectors are dominated by large economies first and foremost the united states in most cases heterogeneity is lower within each country across the different sectors regarding changes of energy intensity at the country level improvements between 1995 and 2007 are largely attributable to technological change while structural change is less important in most countries notable exceptions are japan the united states australia taiwan mexico and brazil where a change in the industry mix was the main driver behind the observed energy intensity reduction

structural change in malawi since independence consequences of a development strategy based on large scale agriculture abstract this paper investigates the nature of the structural change which has occured in the malawian economy since independence and identifies key policies pursued by the government which it is argued have been decisive in shaping this development the salient feature of structural change is shown to be the rapid growth of large scale agriculture associated with an equally rapid transfer of labour into wage employment and a decline in the importance of peasant production the implications of these changes for living standards and future development and policy are considered

energy efficiency in the manufacturing sector of the oecd analysis of price elasticities abstract we examine the role prices have on energy efficiency in the oecd manufacturing sector between 1980 and 2009 we employ a two step procedure first we decompose manufacturing energy intensity change into two driving effects efficiency and structural change the second step uses panel time series regression techniques to estimate the impacts of prices on the effects driving manufacturing energy intensity the advantage of using these techniques is that they account for heterogeneity and cross section dependence in the data something recent energy intensity research has emphasised the results from this decomposition support existing findings that efficiency is the major driver for observed reduction in energy intensity further the second stage results indicate that rising prices improve efficiency importantly these effects vary across countries

natural resource collection work and children s schooling in malawi abstract this paper presents results of research that investigates if long hours of work spent by children in fuel wood and water collection activities i e natural resource collection work influence the likelihood that a child aged 6 14 attends school potential endogeneity of resource collection work hours is corrected for using two stage conditional maximum likelihood estimation data from the 1997 1998 malawi integrated household survey ihs conducted by the malawi national statistics office nso in conjunction with the international food policy research institute ifpri are used the study finds that malawian children are significantly involved in resource collection work and their likelihood of attending school decreases with increases in hours allocated to this work the study further shows that girls spend more hours on resource collection work and are more likely to be attending school while burdened by this work consequently girls may find it difficult to progress well in school however girls are not necessarily less likely to be attending school results further show that presence of more women in a household is associated with a lower burden of resource collection work on children and a higher probability of children s school attendance finally the research shows that children from the most environmentally degraded districts of central and southern malawi are less likely to attend school and relatively fewer of them have progressed to secondary school compared to those from districts in the north

factors shaping aggregate energy intensity trend for industry energy intensity versus product mix understanding the mechanisms of change of energy consumption in industry has attracted much attention since the 1973 world oil crisis a popular line of research has been to decompose changes in the aggregate energy intensity of industry to give the relative impacts arising from energy intensity change and product mix change using a decomposition technique many empirical studies covering a large number of countries have been reported the main objective of this paper is to put together the empirical results reported in these studies in a coherent framework and identify possible systematic features of particular interest are the basic trends in this line of research the relative importance of energy intensity change and product mix change possible variations over time and between country groups in the energy impacts of these changes and inconsistencies in findings among studies an overview of the decomposition technique including its strengths weaknesses and role in industrial energy consumption studies is also presented

credit program participation and child schooling in rural malawi summary we evaluate the impact of agricultural credit program participation on children s school attendance in rural malawi our paired site sampling survey reveals that credit uptake decreased school attendance by young girl children this finding raises concerns that young girl children are exploited as child labor either at home or in the field when working adults become more involved in income generating activities financed by credit the data however do not show clear evidence for young girls staying at home to do household chores or working in the fields in households that obtained credit but instead find simultaneous occurrence between attending school and taking responsibilities for domestic chores by young children it would appear therefore that credit uptake delays the realization of this concurrence among young girl children and leads to delayed school enrollment

industry level production functions and energy use in 12 eu countries abstract in the eu context industrial sectors have significantly reduced their energy consumption in the last decade despite significant disparities existing across industry branches comparative studies focused on the effect of energy use in the production growth of the different industry branches are limited and not related to the eu countries this study undertakes a production growth approach to analyze the effect of energy use in different industry branches through the estimation of translog production functions based on data from 12 eu countries during the 2000 2014 period in addition two sub periods are studied to evaluate if industrial energy efficiency has been improving through time specifically from 2007 findings confirm the existence of different behavior patterns with respect to energy use in the considered sectors and from one sub period to another as a result policy measures should be sector specific since no general production energy use patterns can be obtained

structural change and convergence of energy intensity across oecd countries 1970 2005 abstract this paper uses new and unique data derived from a consistent framework of national accounts to compute and evaluate energy intensity developments across 18 oecd countries and 50 sectors over the period 1970 2005 we find that across countries energy intensity levels tend to decrease in most manufacturing sectors in the service sector energy intensity decreases at a relatively slow rate with diverse trends across sub sectors a decomposition analysis reveals that changes in the sectoral composition of the economy explain a considerable and increasing part of aggregate energy intensity dynamics a convergence analysis reveals that only after 1995 cross country variation in aggregate energy intensity levels clearly tends to decrease driven by a strong and robust trend break in manufacturing and enhanced convergence in services moreover we find evidence for the hypothesis that across sectors lagging countries are catching up with leading countries with rates of convergence that are on average higher in services than in manufacturing aggregate convergence patterns are almost exclusively caused by convergence of within sector energy intensity levels and not by convergence of the sectoral composition of economies

child labor and schooling decisions in urban and rural areas comparative evidence from nepal peru and zimbabwe summary this study sheds some light on the causes of child labor using crosscountry empirical data we find that while poverty is the main cause of child labor in rural areas there is a general lack of support for the poverty hypothesis in urban areas similarly improving access to credit has a greater potential for alleviating child labor and enhancing school attendance in rural areas on the other hand availability of alternative childcare options promises greater impact in urban areas finally the evidence from all countries suggests that efforts to bolster adult educational level and wage will help curb the prevalence and intensity of child labor and improve the likelihood that children stay in school

energy intensity and firm growth abstract using micro level data we attempt to identify the causal relationship between improvement decline in energy intensity and firm growth in six countries namely france germany japan korea the u k and the u s and 21 manufacturing industries during the period 1991 to 2005 we run a panel regression of firm growth using the inverse of a country and industry specific relative energy intensity rei measure with the corresponding industrial sector in the reference case the u s industry in addition to the inverse of the traditional energy intensity measure ei after controlling several firm industry and country variables we find that ei and rei may have somewhat different impacts on firm growth in terms of profits and capital accumulation when we control the heterogeneity in industrial dependence on energy firm profits in the industry club with lower rei grow faster than the six country average compared to the six country case we find that the efficient use of energy inputs has made a smaller contribution to firm growth in korea

the impact of group based credit programs on poor households in bangladesh does the gender of participants matter this paper estimates the impact of participation by gender in the grameen bank and two other group based micro credit programs in bangladesh on labor supply schooling household expenditure and assets the empirical method uses a quasi experimental survey design to correct for the bias from unobserved individual and village level heterogeneity we find that program credit has a larger effect on the behavior of poor households in bangladesh when women are the program participants for example annual household consumption expenditure increases 18 taka for every 100 additional taka borrowed by women from these credit programs compared with 11 taka for men

does child labour displace schooling evidence on behavioral responses to an enrollment subsidy this brief summarizes the results of a gender impact evaluation study entitled does child labour displace schooling evidence on behavioral responses to an enrollment subsidy conducted between 1995 and 1996 in bangladesh the study observed that the subsidy increases schooling but its effect on child labour is ambiguous the subsidy increased schooling by far more than it reduced child labour substitution effects helped protect current incomes from the higher school attendance induced by the subsidy substitution effects helped protect current incomes from the higher school attendance induced by the subsidy the reduction in the incidence of child labour by boys girls represents about one quarter eighth of the increase in their school enrollment rate

how do industrialization and trade openness influence energy intensity evidence from a path model in case of bangladesh abstract nowadays multifaceted interdependence between macroeconomic variables results in an extended list of factors that have diverse impacts on energy intensity thus sustaining energy intensity at a desired level demands advanced studies to investigate the multifarious influences of its factors and ensure proactive measures to deal with them this paper aims to set up a path model to analyze the direct and indirect impacts of industrialization and trade openness on energy intensity in bangladesh the results corroborate that industrialization has a direct positive influence on energy intensity where trade openness shows a direct negative effect on it and both industrialization and trade openness have negative indirect impact on energy intensity through technological innovation and economic growth respectively in case of individual total impacts only industrialization affects energy intensity positively where trade openness technological innovation and economic growth negatively do based on the empirical results some policy implications regarding energy intensity and effects of its factors on it are also presented

an economic analysis of child labor abstract this paper shows how poverty in combination with credit constraints can give rise to the phenomenon of child labor in developing countries it further shows how banning child labor can reduce the welfare of the households intending to send their children to work and suggests some alternative policies

adapting to adjustment smallholder livelihood strategies in southern malawi abstract this study uses the sustainable livelihoods framework to analyze changes in livelihood strategies for 50 case study households in the blantyre shire highlands southern malawi during 1990 2000 although evidence from rapid rural appraisal rra suggests that the poor are becoming poorer the majority 56 reported an improvement in their economic status improvement was linked to market liberalization through higher income from crops burley tobacco vegetables grain legumes and microenterprise one quarter of households were worse off downward economic mobility was attributable partly to market liberalization but also to the adverse consequences of widowhood or divorce for female headed households monitoring livelihoods under adjustment requires a pluralist approach that relies not just on rra but also on quantitative methods household case studies and insights from farming systems research

the impact of microfinance in sub saharan africa a systematic review of the evidence microfinance is seen as a key development tool and despite the current deepening crisis within the industry it continues to grow in sub saharan africa we systematically reviewed the evidence of the impacts of micro credit and micro savings on poor people in sub saharan africa we considered impacts on income savings expenditure and the accumulation of assets as well as non financial outcomes including health nutrition food security education child labor women s empowerment housing job creation and social cohesion the available evidence shows that microfinance does harm as well as good to the livelihoods of the poor

sunk costs firm size and firm growth for several decades the conventional wisdom has been that expected firm growth rates are independent of firm size a property known as gibrat s law however recent empirical work has found a negative relation between firm growth and firm size this paper provides a theoretical explanation for this negative relation in a model of new firm growth where capacity and technology choices involve some degree of sunkness additional empirical implications of the theory of sunk costs are also developed these relate to profit rates tobin s q exit rates degree of sunkness of capacity costs as well as size and growth rates copyright 1995 by blackwell publishing ltd

the effect of microenterprise lending on child schooling in guatemala many recent theoretical models which portray human capital investment as a primary engine of economic growth underemphasize the structure of the microeconomic decision making process which gives rise to human capital investment in both developed and developing countries human capital investment tends to be a household level decision made in the form of child schooling for families in developing countries which operate household enterprises the decision involves an economic trade off between future returns to schooling and the current return to childrens labor in the enterprise the author explores how access to credit in developing countries can affect the child schooling decision a 2 period household model is presented which endogenously generates an optimal level of child schooling by households accounting for the possibility of asymmetric information in credit and labor markets comparative statics are then conducted to show the conditions under which child schooling will increase or decrease when credit constraints are relaxed a brief background of the schooling system in guatemala and a brief description of the survey data collected in guatemala are provided followed by the presentation of empirical tests and a summary of empirical findings with suggestions made for further research