the effectiveness of keynes tobin transaction taxes when heterogeneous agents can trade in different markets a behavioral finance approach abstract we develop a model in which boundedly rational agents apply technical and fundamental analysis to identify trading signals in two different speculative markets whether an agent trades and if so in which market with which strategy depends on profit considerations as it turns out an ongoing evolutionary competition between the trading strategies causes complex price dynamics which closely resembles the behavior of actual speculative prices moreover we find that if the agents have to pay a transaction tax in one market price variability decreases in this market but increases in the other market however the imposition of a uniform tax on all transactions stabilizes both markets our results suggest that if regulators of a market introduce a transaction tax other markets are likely to follow

pigouvian taxes under imperfect competition if consumption depends on emissions the paper considers environmental regulation of a consumption good and an externality which influence demand and costs in a nonseparable way under monopoly two instruments are always required for first best the pigouvian tax is more complicated than anticipated

nonrenewable resource scarcity nonrenewable resource theory often is summarized by hotelling s rule this paper reviews theoretical extensions and empirical investigations of resource extraction models observed data are often inconsistent with the hotelling rule suggesting that other characteristics of nonrenewable resource supply including exploration heterogeneous ore quality technological progress and capital investment are important determinants of the dynamic behavior of resource prices given the persistent recurrence of concern about nonrenewable resource scarcity measures of nonrenewable resource scarcity and the empirical evidence for the time trends of those measures are reviewed finally the implications of nonrenewable resource scarcity for economic growth are examined

capacity choice and the theory of the mine when extraction from mineral deposits is constrained byfixed capacity an r per cent rule holds this deposit specific rule however is more partial than hotelling s rule in that it is followed byprice takers and does not require price to adjust to produce equilibrium toobtain the resource rent to which the rule applies the shadow value ofcapacity must be subtracted from the usual net price i e price lessshort run marginal cost but the shadow value of capacity cannot becalculated from common depreciation formulas an alternative method ofcalculating the shadow values is derived the shadow value of reserves maybe increasing in the level of initial reserves if there are increasingreturns to installing capacity the value of the resource is not equal tothe discounted resource rent

the political economy of opec abstract we develop a conceptual model that captures opec pricing behavior and apply it to explain the large gap observed between domestic fuel prices in opec countries and prices in the rest of the world we model opec as a cartel of nations not firms and assume that politicians use two instruments production quotas and domestic fuel consumption subsidies the cartel of nations model suggests that introduction of alternatives to petroleum products may lead opec to reduce exports and increase domestic fuel consumption the empirical analysis suggests that when opec sets production quotas it places similar weights on consumer and producer surplus but when opec countries set domestic fuel subsidies on average 6 more weight is given to consumer surplus with some of the opec countries pursuing very aggressive domestic cheap fuel policies

do complex financial models really lead to complex dynamics agent based models and multifractality abstract agent based models are usually claimed to generate complex dynamics however the link to such complexity has not been subject to rigorous examination this paper studies this link between the complexity of financial time series measured by their multifractal properties and the design of various small scale agent based frameworks used to model the heterogeneity of financial markets nine popular models are analyzed and while some of the models do not generate interesting multifractal patterns we observe the strongest tendency towards multifractal behavior for the bornholdt ising model the discrete choice based models by gaunersdorfer hommes and schmitt westerhoff and the transition probabilities based framework by franke westerhoff complexity is thus not an automatic feature of the time series generated by any agent based model but generated only by models with specific properties in addition because multifractality is considered a financial stylized fact its presence can be used as a new means to validate such models

capital investments and resource extraction from non identical deposits abstract taking account of necessary investments in physical capital we characterize the optimal investment and extraction program for exploiting several non identical deposits of an exhaustible resource under the given technology assumptions capital investments will be concentrated up front if deposits are identical in the case of non identical deposits it may be optimal to have investments spread out over time moreover the smallest deposit is depleted first

money and financial markets introduction money and financial markets mark p taylor part 1 assessing the literature money demand analysis an outline keith cuthbertson david barlow financial market analysis an outline ronald macdonald and mark p taylor part 2 money demand studies money demand in five major countries estimating and interpreting error correction models james m boughton modelling broad and narrow money a study using cointegration martin brookes et al endogenous financial innovation and the demand for mo peter westaway and david walton money demand in high inflation countries a south american perpsective kate phylakis and mark p taylor the demand for money in four countries in the interwar period a study using monthly data jonathan slow et al part 3 money and financial markets some news on covered interest arbitrage mark p taylor patricia fraser monitoring bank risk a market based approach david miles stephen hall information interest rates and the volatility of asset prices laurence copeland richard c stapleton the decision to disclose research and development expenditure in the presence of a takeover threat jane black ian tonks persistence in stock market returns a disaggregated perspective roanld macdonald david power global capital market integration and the current account michael artis tamim bayoumi financial disorder and the theory of crisis e p davis part 4 new directions in financial market analysis neural networks and asset prices paul ormerod chartists fundamentalists and the transmission of opinion alan kirman

paradoxical consumption behavior when economic activity has environmental effects in a model where enhanced economic activity accumulation of produced capital leads to environmental eects depletion of natural capital competitive steady states corresponding to dierent discount rates are compared for positive discount rates the steady state stock of produced capital may exceed the size maximizing sustainable consumption this implies paradoxical consumption behavior that is a lower discount rate may be associated with lower steady state consumption the theoretical significance of this phenomenon for intergenerational equity is discussed and examples indicating the empirical relevance of the underlying assumptions are presented

do property rights promote investment but cause deforestation quasi experimental evidence from nicaragua abstract many policymakers argue that property rights decrease deforestation some theoretical papers also make this prediction arguing that property rights decrease discount rates applied to a long term investment in forestry however the effect is theoretically ambiguous the paper takes a novel instrumental variables approach based on nicaragua s agrarian reform to test for the effect using a new dataset nicaragua s 2001 agricultural census it finds that property rights significantly increase deforestation the model supported by the data suggests a likely mechanism for this relationship property rights increase investment increasing agricultural productivity and therefore the returns to deforestation

the evolution of hyperbolic discounting implications for truly social valuation of the future abstract we explore the standard expected utility model and alternatives to it we then examine the behavioral and neurological evidence for hyperbolic discounting we discuss evidence related to the neurological and behavioral evolution of discounting in non human animals and in humans we explore new findings about the importance of sociality in human behavior and the implications for truly social time preference finally we discuss the implications of the neurological evidence on discounting for social environmental valuation in particular the implications for very long run decisions such as those involved in climate change mitigation and biodiversity preservation

the acid rain differential game this paper considers an acid rain differential game countries emit sulphur which is partly transferred to other countries depositions above critical loads ultimately destroy the soil countries face a trade off between the costs of emission reductions and the damage to the soil due to the depletion of the acid buffers because of the transboundary externalities the outcome will depend on whether the countries cooperate or not this paper presents the cooperative outcome and the open loop and markov perfect nash equilibria of the acid rain differential game it will be shown that the depositions always converge to the critical loads but the steady state levels of the buffer stocks differ the theory is used to analyse the acid rain differential game for sulphur between great britain and ireland finally some results are given for the whole of europe

a note on mining with investment in capital one of the principal predictions of the theory of the extractive firm is that its rate of output will decline steadily throughout time recently in this journal campbell 1980 presented an interesting analysis suggesting that this behaviour may be altered if one accounts for the fact that firms must invest in some level of fixed capital which is needed in combination with variable inputs to extract the resource in the campbell analysis the fixed capital places a constraint on the maximum rate of extraction it is shown that this constraint is binding and that extraction is therefore constant over some initial period of the mine when the firm behaves optimally this note demonstrates that the campbell result is due to a fixed proportions technology assumption in particular when a neoclassical technology is assumed one finds that the constraint imposed by the level of fixed capital is never binding and that the optimal extraction rate is strictly monotonically declining as a function of time i to demonstrate this an informal argument will suffice let k be the level of fixed capital chosen by the firm let lt be the amount of the variable factor employed in period t assume that the rate of extraction et is given by the production function2

traditional production communal land tenure and policies for environmental preservation in the south pacific abstract instead of maximizing the expected monetary return of land usage pacific islanders manage land so that it renders an optimal mix of cash income and non monetary cultural goods evidence from cropping patterns in fiji suggests that the production of these cultural goods is linked to traditional agriculture which produces less ecological deterioration than its commercial counterpart the capacity for village land to support traditional activities is highest under a regime of communal land tenure where decision making is centralized a regime of private land tenure lowers this capacity because decentralized decision making raises the coordination costs of preserving special areas of land for traditional purposes this means that if development planners rush to replace traditional regimes of communal land tenure with modern systems of private land ownership they might also observe a correlated increase in land degradation even if new codes of private property are perfectly enforceable a two sector growth model can be used to show that the welfare neutral bribe required from the government to increase the amount of village land preserved in the steady state is lower under a regime of communal land tenure one counterintuitive result is that a high subjective discount rate does not always imply a high level of environmental degradation observations from the south pacific have application for environmental policy in other developing countries

commodity markets price limiters and speculative price dynamics abstract we develop a behavioral commodity market model with consumers producers and heterogeneous speculators to characterize the nature of commodity price fluctuations and to explore the effectiveness of price stabilization schemes within our model we analyze how nonlinear interactions between market participants can create either bull or bear markets or irregular price fluctuations between bull and bear markets through a global homoclinic bifurcation both the imposition of a bottoming price level to support producers or a topping price level to protect consumers can eliminate such homoclinic bifurcations and hence reduce market price volatility however simple policy rules such as price limiters may have unexpected consequences in a complex environment a minimum price level decreases the average price while a maximum price limit increases the average price in addition price limiters influence the price dynamics in an intricate way and may cause volatility clustering

representativeness of news and exchange rate dynamics abstract guided by psychological evidence we develop a behavioral exchange rate model in which investors perception of fundamental shocks switches between two states according to the representativeness heuristic agents underestimate the informational content of news in calm periods whereas they overreact to news if they encounter a series of distinct exchange rate changes simulations indicate that the model mimics the behavior of actual exchange rates quite well for instance we observe fat tails for the distribution of the returns and volatility clustering

governance and timber harvests resource economics theory implies that risks associated with weak governance have an ambiguous impact on extraction with the net impact depending on the relative strengths of depletion and investment effects previous empirical studies have found that improved governance tends to reduce deforestation but to raise oil production here we present evidence that the marginal impact of improved governance on timber harvests in developing countries during 1984 2006 was nonmonotonic it tended to raise harvests in countries with weaker governance but to reduce harvests in countries with stronger governance this nonmonotonic impact occurred for both an index of governmental integrity corruption bureaucracy quality law and order and an index of governmental stability a simulation of hypothetical increases in these governance indices to the maximum 2006 values observed in the sample predicted that improved governance would reduce harvests in most countries but could raise harvests in some with large increases occurring in countries with the weakest governance

tenure security private time preference and use of natural resources among lowland bolivian amerindians abstract to estimate the effect of tenure security and private time preference on the use of different types of natural resources such as old growth and fallow forests fish and game we did a survey and a psychological experiment with 443 households in 42 villages of yuracare mojeno tsimane and chiquitano indians in the bolivian lowlands results of multivariate tobit regressions suggest that 1 among the yuracare tsimane and mojeno rates of private time preference had a small economic and statistical effect on the use of natural resources and 2 tenure security proxied by residence duration in the village and by conflict with abutters only affected the consumption of wildlife principally of game results suggest that public policies to improve property rights over natural resources among indigenous people might have greater immediate impact on the conservation of wildlife than on the conservation of forest cover

extraction capacity and the optimal order of extraction the least cost first extraction rule for deposits with different extraction costs previously has been shown to be invalid in general equilibrium this paper demonstrates that this rule also does not hold in partial equilibrium when extraction capacity is limited necessary and sufficient conditions for several surprising extraction orders are presented if extraction from a high cost resource is constrained it may be optimal to begin extraction from a high cost deposit or backstop strictly before extracting from a lower cost deposit if extraction from a low cost resource is limited it may be optimal to exhaust a high cost deposit strictly before the low cost deposit is exhausted or to abandon extraction temporarily from a high cost deposit and then to exhaust it later the analysis demonstrates how extraction constraints affect the order of extraction and shows that certain cost reversals are caused by limited extraction capacity rather than by the general equilibrium definition of extraction costs

a neo austrian five process model with resource extraction and pollution abatement abstract this paper describes a neo austrian approach to analyse long run economy environment interactions the modelling framework incorporates resource use and pollution as integral components of production processes we start our study by reviewing the neo austrian capital theoretic approach a neo austrian model is developed and presented in input output form and the corresponding accounting prices are derived by using this representation an intertemporal simulation approach is embodied by establishing the optimization of an intertemporal social welfare function results from the optimization approach are discussed and also discount rate variations are assessed in terms of their effects on the model economy

some effects of transaction taxes under different microstructures we show that the effectiveness of transaction taxes depends on the market microstructure within our model heterogeneous traders use a blend of technical and fundamental trading strategies to determine their orders in addition they may become inactive if the profitability of trading decreases we find that in a continuous double auction market the imposition of a transaction tax is not likely to stabilize financial markets since a reduction in market liquidity amplifies the average price impact of a given order in a dealership market however abundant liquidity is provided by specialists and thus a transaction tax may reduce volatility by crowding out speculative orders

asset price and wealth dynamics in a financial market with heterogeneous agents abstract this paper considers a discrete time model of a financial market with one risky asset and one risk free asset where the asset price and wealth dynamics are determined by the interaction of two groups of agents fundamentalists and chartists in each period each group allocates its wealth between the risky asset and the safe asset according to myopic expected utility maximization but the two groups have heterogeneous beliefs about the price change over the next period the chartists are trend extrapolators while the fundamentalists expect that the price will return to the fundamental we assume that investors optimal demand for the risky asset depends on wealth as a result of crra utility a market maker is assumed to adjust the market price at the end of each trading period based on excess demand and on changes of the underlying reference price the model results in a nonlinear discrete time dynamical system with growing price and wealth processes but it is reduced to a stationary system in terms of asset returns and wealth shares of the two groups it is shown that the long run market dynamics are highly dependent on the parameters which characterize agents behaviour as well as on the initial condition moreover for wide ranges of the parameters a locally stable fundamental steady state coexists with a stable non fundamental steady state or with a stable closed orbit where only chartists survive in the long run such cases require the numerical and graphical investigation of the basins of attraction other dynamic scenarios include periodic orbits and more complex attractors where in general both types of agents survive in the long run with time varying wealth fractions

capital flows to developing countries this article focuses on the determinants of the large portfolio flows from the united states to latin american and asian countries during 1988 92 cointegration techniques reveal that both domestic and global factors explain bond and equity flows to developing countries and represent significant long run determinants of portfolio flows the article also investigates the dynamics of portfolio flows by estimating seemingly unrelated error correction models global and country specific factors are equally important in determining the long run movements in equity flows for both asian and latin american countries while global factors are much more important than domestic factors in explaining the dynamics of bond flows u s interest rates are a particularly important determinant of the short run dynamics of portfolio especially bond flows to developing countries

international capital mobility in the long run and the short run can we still learn from saving investment data the idea to learn about international capital mobility from saving and investment data remains appealing our approach is based on var methods and overcomes some of the problems associated with saving investment regressions when the data are non stationary we propose a new measure of long run capital mobility that can be easily calculated as a by product of the estimation procedure of a cointegrated var in an application to historical us and british data we find long run capital mobility to have been remarkably stable over the century whereas variations in the mobility of capital primarily seem to have affected short run capital flows

deforestation and seigniorage in developing countries a tradeoff abstract most of countries covered by natural forests are developing countries with limited ability to levy taxes and restrained access to international credit markets consequently they are amenable to draw heavily on two sources of government financing namely seigniorage and deforestation revenues first we develop a theoretical model emphasizing a substitution effect between seigniorage and deforestation revenues second a panel data econometric analysis over the 1990 2010 period confirms our findings consequently a tighter monetary policy hastens deforestation third we extend the theoretical model and show that international transfers dedicated to forest protection can upturn the positive link between tighter monetary policies and deforestation and then discuss the relevance of this finding with respect to recent institutional arrangements

a robust rational route to randomness in a simple asset pricing model abstract we investigate asset pricing dynamics in an adaptive evolutionary asset pricing model with fundamentalists trend followers and a market maker agents can choose between a fundamentalist strategy at positive information cost or choose a trend following strategy for free price adjustment is proportional to the excess demand in the asset market agents asynchronously update their strategy according to realized net profits in the recent past as agents become more sensitive to differences in strategy performance the fundamental steady state becomes unstable and multiple steady states may arise as the traders sensitivity to differences in fitness increases a bifurcation route to chaos sets in due to homoclinic bifurcations of stable and unstable manifolds of the fundamental steady state

optimal pricing of environmental and natural resource use with stock externalities abstract underlying some of the most pressing environmental problems are the interlinked resource and environmental stock externalities with threshold effects using a simple dynamic model it is shown how in the face of such externalities the static market based policy instruments such as pigouvian taxes should be modified it is shown that even if for an initial period there is going to be no pollution stock damage the optimal policy still requires that abatement begins immediately and at increasing rates simulation of the model for the case of fossil fuel burning and the consequent global warming shows that the optimal carbon tax and therefore the optimal control strategy is particularly sensitive to changes in the marginal abatement cost and the level of fossil fuel demand policy simulations contrast the optimal control policy with and estimate the welfare losses from alternative policies deriving from arbitrary tax paths the latter include i a no tax policy ii a constant carbon tax rate iii the european community s proposed carbon tax path and iv a delayed optimal tax path

a qualitative characterization of the competitive nonrenewable resource extracting firm abstract using variational differential equations a systematic qualitative analysis is carried out for the competitive nonrenewable resource extracting firm the parameters of interest are the output price variable input price discount rate lease length initial resource stock and various tax rates the effects of changes in these parameters on the entire optimal time paths of the current shadow value of the stock the resource stock and the extraction rate are characterized in the perturbed phase plane

discount rate choice and efficiency in exhaustible resource allocation employing a simple continuous time model j rowse 1990 finds small percentage social welfare losses when using the wrong discount rate to allocate an exhaustible resource this study finds the same result using a discrete time model incorporating several important complexities including rising unit supply costs and demand functions that distinguish among short term medium term and long term price responses certain non efficiency performance measures are found to vary much more in percentage terms than social welfare as the improper rate diverages from the social rate it is argued that these results are general and their implications are briefly discussed

heterogeneous speculators endogenous fluctuations and interacting markets a model of stock prices and exchange rates abstract we develop a discrete time model in which the stock markets of two countries are linked via and with the foreign exchange market the foreign exchange market is characterized by nonlinear interactions between technical and fundamental traders such interactions may generate complex dynamics and recurrent switching between bull and bear market phases via a well known pitchfork and period doubling bifurcation path when technical traders become more aggressive the two stock markets are populated by fundamentalists and prices tend to evolve towards stable steady states driven by linear laws of motion a connection between such markets is established by allowing investors to trade abroad and the resulting three dimensional dynamical system is analyzed one goal of our paper is to explore potential spill over effects between foreign exchange and stock markets a second related goal is to study how the bifurcation sequence which characterizes the market with heterogeneous speculators is modified in the presence of interactions with other markets

on using current information to value hard rock mineral properties we reformulate the hotelling valuation principle to take into account the special production characteristics of hard rock minerals the data requirements of the revised model are still parsimonious but the resultant valuations are some 40 below those produced by the hotelling valuation principle our valuation equations are also user friendly allowing the valuer to specify price and cost expectations that need not comply with the hotelling rule empirically our model provides estimates of market value for producing mineral properties that are more accurate than those produced by the hotelling valuation principle

network structure and n dependence in agent based herding models abstract we derive microscopic foundations for a well known probabilistic herding model in the agent based finance literature while the model is quite robust with respect to behavioral heterogeneity the network structure describing the very feasibility of agent interaction turns out to have a crucial and non trivial impact on the macroscopic properties of the model

the conservationist s dilemma it is typically thought that conservation of natural resources is encouraged by low interest rates however when capital goods are used to extract the resource low interest rates may discourage rather than encourage conservation using a model of a capacity constrained extractive industry in competitive equilibrium i find the relationship between the initial rate of exploitation and the interest rate if capital is so important that for sufficiently high interest rates the industry is nonviable the graph of initial quantity versus the interest rate is u shaped the traditional result holds at small interest rates but not at large ones copyright 1993 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

order aggressiveness pre trade transparency and long memory in an order driven market abstract recent empirical research has documented that the state of the limit order book influences stock investors strategies investors place more aggressive orders when the same side of the order book is thicker and less aggressive orders when it is thinner we conjecture and demonstrate that this behavior is related to long memories of trading volume volatility and order signs in stock markets we investigate our conjecture in two types of artificial stock markets a transparent market in which agents observe all limit orders on both sides of the book and order volumes at those prices before they trade and a less transparent market in which agents observe only the best five bid and ask quotes with the depth available at these limit prices the first market structure resembles certain actual stock exchanges in the level of pre trade transparency such as the australian stock exchange nyse openbook and the london stock exchange whereas the second market structure is consistent with stock exchanges such as euronext paris the toronto stock exchange the tokyo stock exchange and hong kong exchanges and clearing we demonstrate that our long memory results are robust with different levels of pre trade transparency implying that the strategy constructed by the state of the order book is key for explaining long memories in many actual stock exchanges

on the reinterpretation of money demand regressions a stylized fact concerning estimated money demand relationships is that lagged dependent variables have high explanatory power and large estimated coefficients which is hard to explain at a theoretical level marvin s goodfriend 1985 suggests that this may be due to the presence of serially correlated measurement errors in the independent variables the author demonstrates how consistent estimates of the short run demand function can be obtained even if the goodfriend hypothesis is accepted and also how the hypothesis might be tested application of the suggested test using the goldfeld 1973 data set leads to decisive rejection of the hypothesis copyright 1994 by ohio state university press

efficiency inducing taxation for polluting oligopolists abstract we show that there exists a time independent tax rule that guides polluting oligopolists to achieve the socially optimum production path the optimal tax is dependent on the current pollution stock and it may be negative when the pollution stock is low a surprising result is that the optimal tax rule may give firms a subsidy for an initial time interval even though under laissez faire their output always exceeds the socially optimal output this subsidy however induces firms to produce less than they would under laissez faire

exchange rate dynamics central bank interventions and chaos control methods abstract we use a simple chartist fundamentalist model developed by day and huang to explore recent chaos control algorithms as potential candidates for central bank intervention rules we find that methods such as delayed feedback control ogy and constant feedback have in principle the potential to reduce exchange rate variability and deviations from fundamentals even in the presence of large dynamic noise

examining the effectiveness of price limits in an artificial stock market abstract this paper proposes an agent based framework to examine the effectiveness of price limits in an artificial stock market the market is composed of many boundedly rational and heterogeneous traders whose learning behavior is represented by a genetic programming algorithm we calibrate the model to replicate several stylized facts observed in real financial markets based on this environment the impacts of price limits are analyzed from the perspectives of volatility price distortion volume and welfare we find that the imposition of price limits possesses both positive and negative effects however compared with the market without price limits appropriate price limits help to reduce volatility and price distortion and increase the liquidity and welfare

on the complicated price dynamics of a simple one dimensional discontinuous financial market model with heterogeneous interacting traders abstract we develop a financial market model with heterogeneous interacting agents market makers adjust prices with respect to excess demand chartists believe in the persistence of bull and bear markets and fundamentalists bet on mean reversion moreover speculators trade asymmetrically in over and undervalued markets and while some of them determine the size of their orders via linear trading rules others always trade the same amount of assets the dynamics of our model is driven by a one dimensional discontinuous map despite the simplicity of our model analytical graphical and numerical analysis reveals a surprisingly rich set of interesting dynamical behaviors

heterogeneous expectations exchange rate dynamics and predictability abstract this paper proposes a simple chartist fundamentalist model in which we allow for nonlinear time variation in chartists extrapolation rate estimation of the model using monthly data for the major currencies vis a vis the us dollar shows that the model is significant in sample and that it has out of sample predictive power for some of the currencies we investigate the power of tests of the random walk model to detect predictability against the alternative of the proposed model we find that the evidence of short term unpredictability and the long term predictability are consistent with our model

speculative markets and the effectiveness of price limits abstract the aim of this paper is to study the effectiveness of price limits in speculative markets we construct a nonlinear stochastic asset pricing model in which traders rely on technical and fundamental analysis to determine their orders the dynamics of the model mimic stylized facts such as the emergence of bubbles excess volatility fat tails for returns or volatility clustering quite well using this model as a laboratory we find that price limits have the potential to reduce both volatility and deviations from fundamentals the more traders lend themselves to trend extrapolating behavior the better price limits work

ownership risk investment and the use of natural resources the effect of insecure ownership on ordinary investment and natural resource use is examined insecure ownership is postulated to depend on the type of government regime in power and the prevalence of political violence or instability the political determinants of economy wide investment are estimated from cross country data and the results are used to form an index of ownership security when introduced into empirical models of natural resource use this index has a significant and quantitatively important effect on the use of forests and petroleum contrary to conventional wisdom ownership risk slows resource use in some circumstances

a functional coefficient model view of the feldstein horioka puzzle what does the saving investment si relation really measure and how should the si relation be measured these are two of the most discussed issues triggered by the so called feldstein horioka puzzle based on panel data we introduce a new variant of functional coefficient models that allows to separate long and short to medium run parameter dependence the new modeling framework is applied to uncover the determinants of the si relation macroeconomic state variables such as openness the age dependency ratio government current and consumption expenditures are found to affect the si relation significantly in the long run

pigouvian taxation in tourism the paper studies the characteristics and the effects of a tax imposed by a local government on the land used to create new tourists accommodations first a dynamic policy game between a monopolist in a tourist area and a local government is considered in each period the former has to decide the size of land undergoing development whereas the latter has to choose the tax to levy on each newly developed area unit linear perfect markov strategies are derived for both the non cooperative and the public monopoly case in equilibrium a public monopoly would develop land more rapidly than a private monopoly furthermore the more the monopolist discounts the future the more the long run use of the natural resource is reduced second the properties of the tax are studied considering an oligopolistic market structure the tax alone does not lead to the socially optimal level of land use however its combined effect with another policy instrument such as a quota induces the optimal level of resource use

does voluntary carbon reporting meet investors needs abstract through initiatives such as the carbon disclosure project investors have encouraged companies to report on their climate change related risks and opportunities their greenhouse gas emissions and their climate change management systems and processes despite the large number of companies that now report climate change related information investors have consistently criticised companies for not providing information that can be readily used in investment decision making companies in turn have criticised investors for not utilising the information that they provide this article taking the case of the uk retail sector analyses the reasons for this debate between companies and their investors it concludes that there are two factors at play the first is that while investors have encouraged companies to report they have at least to date paid much less attention to the quality of the reported information the second is that company reporting on climate change falls far short of the quality required for investors to make meaningful comparisons between companies this in turn has limited investor interest in these data the article considers the potential for mandatory reporting to address these problems and concludes that mandatory reporting is at best a partial solution and that it is a combination of voluntary and mandatory reporting underpinned by active investor interest in the data being reported that offers the greatest potential for progress

varieties of agents in agent based computational economics a historical and an interdisciplinary perspective in this paper we trace four origins of agent based computational economics ace namely the markets origin the cellular automata origin the tournaments origin and the experiments origin along with this trace we examine how these origins have motivated different concepts and designs of agents in ace which starts from the early work on simple programmed agents randomly behaving agents zero intelligence agents human written programmed agents autonomous agents and empirically calibrated agents and extends to the newly developing cognitive agents psychological agents and culturally sensitive agents the review also shows that the intellectual ideas underlying these varieties of agents cross several disciplines which may be considered as a part of a general attempt to study humans and their behavior with an integrated interdisciplinary foundation

the effect of the discount rate on depletion of exhaustible resources this paper argues that despite its widespread acceptance in the literature the basic proposition that a reduction an increase in the discount rate leads to greater conservation faster depletion of an exhaustible resource is not generally valid it shows that the effect of the discount rate on the rate of resource depletion depends on capital requirements for production of the substitute and extraction of the resource and on the size of the resource stock in fact it shows that there always exist at least two ranges of the resource stock size for which the effect is opposite to that conventionally believed

should we worry about the failure of the hotelling rule abstract the continuing dependence of the global economy on fossil fuels is worrying because it imposes limits on growth due to the non renewable nature of these resources and also contributes to global climate change resource optimists believe that this is no reason to worry because the economy will always find a way to overcome these constraints their arguments however require that resource prices reflect the scarcity of non renewable resources which implies that they must obey the hotelling rule empirical analyses however show that the hotelling rule does not hold in reality which raises the question does the failure of the hotelling rule imply that social optimality is not achieved this paper argues that the answer depends on the reason for the failure if extraction and exploration costs or technological progress in these activities are the reasons for the failure a market failure is not implied and optimality may still be achieved but if the hotelling rule fails due to uncertain property rights or strategic interaction the market will surely fail to provide an optimal solution a market failure is likely to speed up resource consumption compared to the social optimum

when a high discount rate encourages biodiversity include land in a neoclassical growth model and introduce a standard biogeographic relation between species recliners biodiversity and land assume that species provide utility the optimal constant amount of land preserved for species is obtained from steady state conditions contrary to conventional wisdom a high discount rate preserves more land when the elasticity of substitution between goods and species exceeds unity or when this elasticity is less than unity and technology is such that the output effect of a change in the interest rate exceeds the substitution effect

ten years of corporate action on climate change what do we have to show for it abstract a significant proportion of the world s greenhouse gas emissions can be attributed directly or indirectly to corporate activities an increasing number of companies have set targets and have adopted initiatives to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions raising the question of what sorts of outcomes can realistically be expected from corporate action on climate change this paper aims to shed some light on this issue through an analysis of the climate change performance of the uk supermarket sector this sector is directly responsible for around 1 of uk greenhouse gas emissions but it has been estimated that indirectly it may be responsible for up to 10 of emissions in the period between 2000 and 2010 the major uk supermarkets transformed their approach to climate change this paper examines the outcomes that resulted from these actions it finds that there have been significant and steady improvements in energy efficiency but that these efficiency gains are often outstripped by the impacts of business growth for most companies short of a radical redesign of their business activities or an expansion of the scope of their energy management initiatives to include their indirect emissions total greenhouse gas emissions will tend to increase over time

capital flows to developing countries long and short term determinants this article focuses on the determinants of the large portfolio flows from the united states to latin american and asian countries during 1988 92 cointegration techniques reveal that both domestic and global factors explain bond and equity flows to developing countries and represent significant long run determinants of portfolio flows the article also investigates the dynamics of portfolio flows by estimating seemingly unrelated error correction models global and country specific factors are equally important in determining the long run movements in equity flows for both asian and latin american countries while global factors are much more important than domestic factors in explaining the dynamics of bond flows u s interest rates are a particularly important determinant of the short run dynamics of portfolio especially bond flows to developing countries copyright 1997 by oxford university press

using the wrong discount rate to allocate an exhaustible resource what are the social welfare implications of using the wrong discount rate to allocate an exhaustible resource utilizing a simple numerical model it is found that over the real discount rate range of 6 to 9 the welfare losses of employing a rate no more than 3 different from the social rate are small and decline as the social rate rises even for stringent supply circumstances however substantial transfers of surplus between producers and consumers occur as the improper rate deviates from the social rate other issues such as income distribution immediately loom larger when a discount rate is chosen

the hotelling rule in non renewable resource economics a reassessment harold hotelling s 1931 contribution is known for providing a basic principle the hotelling rule to the economics of non renewable resources nearly ninety years later empirical tests conclude the rule lacks empirical validity requiring strong amendments to describe the long term aggregate behavior of its target object on the basis of hotelling s unpublished archival material this paper revisits the place given to the hotelling rule in non renewable resource economics our reconstruction shows that hotelling s 1931 paper has been misinterpreted from the outset the hotelling rule was not valid for mineral resources in contrast the consideration of two inherent geological constraints alongside exhaustibility offered the opportunity for an alternative basic framework capable to generate bell shaped and u shaped equilibrium trajectories for supplies and prices respectively inspired by this unknown aspect of hotelling s work brought to light by our archival investigation we sketch this alternative basic model enabling non renewable resource economics to circumvent the empirical shortfalls of the hotelling rule

the effect of decentralized governance on timber extraction in european russia good governance is often promoted for economic growth but its impact on natural resource use in developing and transitional economies is not well understood for example many scholars promote improved governance as a means to slow resource use whereas others have found that better governance increases extractive resource activities in this paper we use within country variation in russia to test the impact of governance on timber harvesting using a reduced form fixed effects model and satellite based estimates of forest cover we find a statistically significant and non linear effect of governance on the area of timber harvested for a marginal improvement in governance timber harvesting increases but this effect decreases at high levels of governance these results are robust to alternative specifications and when instrumenting for economic growth governance could impact timber harvesting in russia through ownership risk i e tenure security through the costs of doing business i e bribes or both nonparametric regressions and qualitative evidence suggest that both factors are at play in russia this analysis provides additional evidence that improving governance may increase natural resource extraction this has important implications for policy prescriptions that suggest good governance will slow resource use in developing and transitional economies

trade with polluting nonrenewable resources abstract the paper considers nonrenewable resource extraction in a situation where the resource buyers have formed a government which applies emission taxation for slowing pollution accumulation and the sellers are competitive or a resource cartel the noncompetitive situation is studied as a stackelberg differential game which the cartel leads it is first assumed that extraction costs do not depend on the resource stock level and that the pollution stock does not decay in the time consistent and markov perfect equilibrium the sellers monopoly power vanishes asymptotically the sellers market power reduces the buyers emission tax at each point in time in the stackelberg equilibrium the emission tax is below the marginal present value of pollution damage if pollution decays and extraction costs depend on the resource stock level buyers have monopsony power and the ability of sellers to receive emission tax revenues is weakened when the rate of pollution decay is high the producer price falls below the pareto optimal level

energy backstop endogeneity and the optimal use of groundwater to meet the growing demand for freshwater many regions have increased groundwater pumping in recent years resulting in declining groundwater levels worldwide a promising development to address these declines is technical change regarding groundwater substitutes such as desalination and wastewater recycling however because these technologies are energy intensive optimal implementation also depends on future energy price trends we provide an operational model for the case of reverse osmosis seawater desalination in an application to the pearl harbor aquifer in hawaii we find that allowing the cost of desalination to increase at an average annual rate of 2 4 over the next century results in a substantially steeper efficiency price path for water the higher prices decrease optimal groundwater extraction and induce a slower head drawdown over a longer period of time thereby delaying the transition to desalination by over 30 years because the rise in energy costs exacerbates efficiency losses from under pricing any delay in implementing efficiency pricing will cause either a greater future increase in prices or the need for rationing reforming prices sooner rather than later may be more politically feasible given that consumers may be more amenable to a gradual rise in prices today than a sudden doubling or tripling of prices ten years from now using this as a foundation we outline a research agenda for extending the framework to other groundwater substitutes and for adapting to climate change

when patience leads to destruction the curious case of individual time preferences and the adoption of destructive fishing gears abstract the use of destructive fishing methods is a serious problem especially for tropical and developing countries due to inter temporal nature of fisheries extraction activities standard economic theory suggests that an individual s time preference can play a major role in determining the gear choice decision based on earlier theoretical work we identify two ways in which individual time preferences can impact the adoption of destructive extraction methods i the conservation effect which posits that patient individuals as indicated by relatively high discount factor are less likely to use destructive extraction methods since they are more likely to account for the loss of future income that is accompanied by using these methods ii the disinvestment effect which argues that patient individuals are more likely to use destructive extraction methods since they have greater investment capability using an agent based model we clarify the conditions under which one of these effects is more dominant than the other one our model suggests that the nature of destructive gear along with the level of social dilemma determines whether patient or impatient individuals relatively lower discount factor are more likely to adopt such a gear additionally agent s beliefs regarding future resource condition and other agent s extraction level can have a major influence in some cases

the conditions for achieving environmentally sustainable development this paper is interested in the narrower interpretation the relationship between environmental quality and sustainable economic activity the latter is interpreted as that level of economic activity which leaves the environmental quality level intact with the policy objective corresponding to this notion being the maximization of net benefits of economic development subject to maintaining the services and quality of natural resources over time 3

emerging carbon constraints for corporate risk management abstract while discussions about global sustainability challenges abound the financial risks that they incur albeit important have received less attention we suggest that corporate risk assessments should include sustainability related aspects especially with relation to the natural environment and encompass the flux of critical materials within a company s value chain such a comprehensive risk assessment takes into account input as well as output related factors with this paper we focus on the flux of carbon and define carbon constraints that emerge due to the disposition of fossil fuels in the input dimension and due to direct and indirect climate change effects in the output dimension we review the literature regarding the financial consequences of carbon constraints on the macroeconomic sector and company level we conclude that a financial consequences seem to be asymmetrically distributed between and within sectors b the individual risk exposure of companies depends on the intensity of and dependency on carbon based materials and energy and c financial markets have only started to incorporate these aspects in their valuations this paper ends with recommendations on how to incorporate our results in an integrated carbon risk management framework

the use of fundamental and technical analyses by foreign exchange dealers hong kong evidence abstract this article reports the results of a questionnaire survey conducted in february 1995 on the use by foreign exchange dealers in hong kong of fundamental and technical analyses to form their forecasts of exchange rate movements our findings reveal that 85 of respondents rely on both fundamental and technical analyses for predicting future rate movements at different time horizons at shorter horizons there exists a skew towards reliance on technical analysis as opposed to fundamental analysis but the skew becomes steadily reversed as the length of horizon considered is extended technical analysis is considered slightly more useful in forecasting trends than fundamental analysis but significantly more useful in predicting turning points interest rate related news is found to be a relatively important fundamental factor in exchange rate forecasting while moving average and or other trend following systems are the most useful technical technique

optimal saving policy for exhaustible resource economies abstract the paper examines the optimal saving policy for a small exhaustible resource exporting economy ere that has an exhaustible asset and a reproducible capital stock it shows that both in magnitude and time profile the optimal saving policy for an ere sharply differs from a that of a nonextractive economy and b that derived from the conventional models of growth with exhaustible resources these differences arise from the specific economic features that distinguish the small resource exporting developing economies both from other developing economies and from mature industrial ones for a wide range of plausible parameter values comparisons of computed optimal saving paths with actual savings rates of selected eres suggest substantial deficiencies in their savings rates