causality in mean and causality in variance within the international steam coal market abstract the purpose of this paper is to investigate the integration of the steam coal market the analysis of dependencies between mean rates of return of prices on the steam coal market and volatility spillover was conducted using weekly data from the period 04 01 2002 to 30 12 2011 the prices of the world s largest exporters and importers on the pacific and atlantic markets were chosen to analyse the dependencies the methodology was based on the tests from cheung and ng 1996 and hong 2001 which allow for the analysis of granger causality both in mean and in variance the analyses indicate that the dependence between participants is not the same the strongest links were observed between the pairs of participants from the same market that is either the atlantic market or the pacific market and the price of australian coal turned out to be the most important factor in shaping other prices on the pacific market on the atlantic market the coal prices in the amsterdam rotterdam antwerp ara ports and the richards bay port had the greatest influence on coal prices and were the granger cause of prices in the pacific region

the electricity generation adequacy problem assessing dynamic effects of capacity remuneration mechanisms abstract following liberalization reforms the ability of power markets to provide satisfactory incentives for capacity investments has become a major concern in particular current energy markets can exhibit a phenomenon of investment cycles which generate phases of under and over capacity and hence additional costs and risks for generation adequacy to cope with these issues new mechanisms called capacity remuneration mechanisms crm have been or will be implemented this paper assesses the dynamic effects of two crms the capacity market and the strategic reserve mechanism and studies to what extent they can reduce the investment cycles generation costs and shortage costs of both mechanisms are also compared to conclude on their effectivity and economic efficiency a simulation model based on system dynamics is developed to study the functioning of both crms and the related investment decisions the results highlight the benefits of deploying crms to solve the adequacy issue shortages are strongly reduced compared to an energy only market besides the capacity market appears to be more beneficial since it experiences fewer shortages and generation costs are lower these comparisons can be used by policy makers in particular in europe where these two crms are mainly debated to determine which crm to adopt

games for electricity traders understanding risk in a deregulated industry abstract we illustrate and discuss the use of a computer based learning environment known as a microworld for training agents in the colombian electricity market as the market operator was concerned with efficiency in the electricity spot market because of an insufficient number of participants they commissioned a tool that could help potential participants to learn about both market operation as well as the risk management it involved by making the industry more transparent it was intended that a larger number of traders and companies would participate in the market making it more efficient we describe the development and use of this tool which is based on system dynamics and gaming

the globalization of steam coal markets and the role of logistics an empirical analysis abstract in this paper we provide a comprehensive multivariate cointegration analysis of three parts of the steam coal value chain export transport and import prices the analysis is based on a rich dataset of international coal prices in particular we combine data on steam coal prices with freight rates covering the period december 2001 until august 2009 at weekly frequency we then test whether the demand and supply side components of steam coal trade are consistently integrated with one another in addition export and import prices as well as freight rates for individual trading routes across regions and globally are combined we find evidence of significant yet incomplete integration we also find heterogeneous short term dynamics of individual markets furthermore we examine whether logistics enter coal price dynamics through transportation costs which are mainly determined by oil prices our results suggest that this is generally not the case

enterprises compliance with government carbon reduction labelling policy using a system dynamics approach abstract a carbon reduction labelling scheme is an effective policy tool for motivating enterprises or organizations to reduce their life cycle based carbon emissions to benefit the environment this paper uses system dynamics to model enterprises compliance with a combined government policy instrument for a carbon reduction labelling scheme that is government subsidies and economic sanctions a case study of paper enterprises in china is provided to demonstrate the application of the proposed model in which two optional technological plans to reduce the enterprises carbon emissions are examined the technological plans are categorized as a low cost and high cost plan the simulation results show that both the technological plans are vulnerable to the combined policy making and the high cost plan shows superior environmental performance for carbon emissions reduction however the enterprises are more inclined to choose the low cost plan because of superior economic performance the study offers insights to help enterprises select optimal actions on carbon emissions reduction and to inform government of possible sustainable policy design to promote low carbon development the model limitations are discussed as a basis for further improvements in low carbon development

assessing the combined effect of the diffusion of solar rooftop generation energy conservation and efficient appliances in households abstract there is a growing worldwide concern regarding emissions of energy related greenhouse gases ghgs policy technology and human awareness provide opportunities for offsetting these effects through energy conservation efficient appliances and solar generation in households as these have been the subject of increasing attention across the world in recent years solar rooftop generation in particular could deliver significant efficiency improvements and reductions of co2 emissions through its diffusion which also avoids losses in electricity transmission and distribution systems energy efficiency contributes to the achievement of a sustainable future because it reduces the energy infrastructure needs increases competitiveness and improves consumer welfare conservation would also reduce co2 emissions in households the purpose of this paper is to assess the combined effect of the diffusion of solar rooftop generation energy efficiency and electricity conservation in the residential sector in colombia simulation results for different policy scenarios indicate that rooftop generation energy efficiency and conservation can together lead under certain conditions to important reductions in both electricity prices and emissions

using the decentralized and liberalized electricity market microworld lemm as an educational tool abstract decentralized and liberalized electricity market involves a great deal of interdisciplinary concepts including economic commercial environmental and technological issues consequently the system is complicated accordingly nowadays introductory courses focusing on the electricity market dynamics have been added to the curriculum at many universities however as the electricity market dynamics are complicated it is not straightforward for students to understand a teaching tool to assist students to better understand strategic behaviors in the market is thus in high demand due to these reasons liberalized electricity market microworld lemm incorporating a system dynamics based simulation model is developed the lemm s contribution to the students learning and understanding of the decentralized and liberalized electricity market dynamics have been explored by organizing game sessions with the lemm for totally 49 students who participated in energy policy and planning course in bogazici university the findings obtained from the exploratory study reveal that the students improved their understanding of the liberalized and decentralized electricity market through the game session with the lemm in this paper the general characteristics of the lemm and the underlying model are presented the microworlds particularly the lemm s potential contribution to learning and teaching is discussed

myths and facts of the utility death spiral abstract as the electricity industry is changing worldwide the swift expansion of basic forms of distributed generation dg particularly photovoltaic deployment threatens the current utility business models that during the transitional stages may challenge the reliability of electricity systems and societal welfare these findings are matters of major concern to policy makers as the shift towards more decentralized power systems must be sustainable and although this brings great opportunities it also pauses important challenges the transition calls for policy and regulation attention for some researchers dg development should be accompanied with design changes to distribution tariffs the addition of connection charge and modifications to net metering while for others certain of these measures could discourage dg investments in this context and given multiple uncertainties the authors propose a system dynamics model to examine the effect of the diffusion of photovoltaic technology on the revenues of utilities and customers the paper concludes that for the colombian case it is possible under certain conditions to attain a balance between social welfare and the aversion of the utility death spiral through systemic interventions

defining geographic coal markets using price data and shipments data abstract given the importance of coal in world energy supply an analysis of the relevant geographic market is essential for consumers producers as well as for competition policy the purpose of this paper is to define the relevant economic market for steam and coking coal and to test the hypothesis of single world markets for these coal products methodologically the paper relies on two different tests for defining markets using both shipments data and price data the results from both methods point in the same direction in the case of coking coal the results indicate that the market is essentially global in scope and also that the market has become more integrated over time the results for steam coal show that the market is more regional in scope and there exist no clear tendencies of increased integration over time one policy implication of the finding that the steam coal market is more regional in scope and thus that the market boundary is smaller than if the market would have been international is that a merger and acquisition in this market likely would have been of a more concern for antitrust authorities than the same activity on the coking coal market

the collected papers of richard a musgrave a review article richard musgrave is the doyen of public finance economists his written work has affected virtually every branch of the subject it is important not only in its own right but also on account of where it has led others to follow the theory of public finance 1959 is a landmark in the field unlikely ever to be surpassed in breadth of coverage or depth of scholarship his teaching has influenced many generations of students at michigan johns hopkins princeton and harvard and his active participation in professional activities both inside and outside universities has been an example to us all the publication of his collected papers in public finance in a democratic society is therefore very much to be welcomed the two volumes reviewed here reprint articles and contributions to books spanning the period from his voluntary exchange theory of public economy in 1938 to the a brief review of fiscal doctrine which appeared in the first volume of the handbook of public economics in 1985 the 800 pages represent only a fraction of musgrave s total writings which he estimates at some 10 000 pages i 90 but the collection provides an excellent overall view of his contribution to public finance the first volume deals with fiscal functions and social goals taxation and macro economic aspects of fiscal policy the second volume covers fiscal federalism social security development finance and fiscal doctrine it need hardly be said that such a broad canvas cannot be adequately covered in this article and my review selects a small number of topics for discussion

policy changes and the dynamics of capacity expansion in the swiss electricity market abstract capacity of supply is a crucial matter in electricity markets as it directly influences reliability of supply price volatility and blackout risk in this paper we analyse the dynamics of capacity expansion in the swiss electricity market and the impact of different policies such as nuclear phaseout and management of electricity exchanges imports and exports policies this article develops the conceptualization model presented in ochoa p 2007b policy changes in the swiss electricity market a system dynamics analysis of likely market responses socio economic planning sciences 41 4 336 349 we build a system dynamics model based on the dynamics of capacity expansion explained in the latter paper and present and analyse different scenarios we conclude that international electricity exchanges are important for the swiss market as they help to lower costs and to increase the income of the utility companies however we illustrate the need for explicit policies for managing imports and exports of electricity to avoid import dependence from neighbouring countries

application of games with incomplete information for pricing electricity in deregulated power pools the authors present a game theory approach to the problem of pricing electricity in deregulated marketplaces they assume that an independent operator receives bids by pool participants and defines transactions among participants by looking for the minimum price that satisfies the demand in the pool the competition among pool participants is modeled as a noncooperative game with incomplete information they assume that each pool participant knows its own operation costs but does not know his opponents operation costs the game with incomplete information is transformed into a game with complete but imperfect information and solved using the nash equilibrium idea the approach presented in this paper is geared towards providing support for pricing electricity in deregulated pools

exploring the options for carbon dioxide mitigation in turkish electric power industry system dynamics approach electric power industry has a huge carbon mitigation potential fundamentally because there are large carbon free renewable resource options in turkey with growing demand in electricity consumption and incentives offered for natural gas fired electricity generation co2 emissions sourced from electric power industry had tripled over the last two decades current governmental strategy focuses on energy security and resource diversity in a growing economy and does not articulate sufficient mitigation targets and appropriate regulations in this research an original dynamic simulation model is built validated and analyzed to explore the options for carbon mitigation in turkish electric power industry model structure represents the investment dispatch and pricing heuristics as well as the natural resource base of electricity generation in turkey it operates on annual basis over 30 years to simulate installed capacities and generations of power plants with alternative resources and their resulting co2 emissions the analysis presented in this paper reveals that there are mitigation options below 50 of business as usual growth with common policy options such as feed in tariffs investment subsidies and carbon taxes the model can serve as an experimental platform for further analysis of problems related to carbon mitigation in turkish electricity sector

combinations of support instruments for renewable electricity in europe a review abstract the aim of this paper is to review the combinations of res e support instruments in the european union eu using different sources of data it is shown that combinations are indeed a widespread phenomenon in the eu member states not much attention has been paid to the combinations of primary instruments with other secondary instruments for the same renewable energy technology it is found that the most frequent mixes of instruments are between feed in laws feed in tariffs and increasingly feed in premiums on the one hand and investment subsidies soft loans and tax incentives on the other in a broad sense the policy mix between primary and secondary instruments has experienced some changes over the last decade mostly related to changes in the primary instruments themselves exclusion i e ineligibility to apply for an instrument when the res e generator is already being financially supported by another instrument and explicit coordination of support under primary and secondary instruments do not seem to be common elements in these policy combinations

dynamic steam coal market integration evidence from rolling cointegration analysis abstract the aim of the paper is twofold first to assess the dynamics of the integration process of the international steam coal prices and second to investigate the changes in the roles of particular coal prices in this market in the light of changes in the structure of supply and demand the analysis is based on steam coal prices set by the largest world exporters and importers on both the atlantic and the pacific markets we use weekly data spanning from october 5 2001 to march 28 2014 the aim is achieved in two stages during the first one we use the rolling trace test to identify the integration of the steam coal market and during the second one we apply the rolling weak exogeneity test to determine the roles of the participants of the international steam coal market namely price setters and price takers our main findings can be summarized in two observations firstly the main world steam coal prices are integrated and during the period when freight costs are higher the coal market integration is weaker and when the costs are lower the integration is stronger secondly the role of particular coal prices is not stable in time generally price setters appear in the market which covers greater shares in the physical coal trade although indonesia and russia have a great share in the global export their prices remain price takers during the whole period as a consequence although russia remains the largest coal exporter of the steam coal to the european market it cannot dictate its prices in this market

simulating price patterns for tradable green certificates to promote electricity generation from wind abstract this article uses computer simulation to anticipate the price dynamics in a market for tradable green certificates tgcs these markets have been used in europe to promote generation of electricity from renewable resources like wind similar markets have been proposed in the united states of america usa where the certificates are called renewable energy credits recs the certificates are issued to the generating companies for each megawatt hour of renewable electricity generation the companies may sell the certificates in a market and the revenues from certificate sales provide an extra incentive to invest in new generating capacity proponents argue that this market based incentive can be designed to support government mandates for a growing fraction of electricity generation from renewable sources in the usa these mandates are set by the states and are known as renewable portfolio standards rps we simulate the price dynamics of a market designed to support an aggressive mandate for wind generation in the northwestern usa the simulations show that the certificate price climbs rapidly to the cap in the early years after the market opens investors then react to these high prices with construction of new wind capacity after a few years wind generation meets and then exceeds the requirement we show that this pattern appears again and again when the simulations are repeated with wide variations in the estimates of behavioral parameters we use the model to study the impact of different trading strategies by the wind companies and by the distribution companies we also study the simulated market response if the usa adopts the carbon allowance market envisioned in the climate stewardship act the article concludes with recommendations for policy makers involved in tgc market design

evaluation of regulatory impacts on dynamic behavior of investments in electricity markets a new hybrid dp game framework a new hybrid framework based on game theory and dynamic programming dp with random demands and prices is proposed for studying the impacts of regulatory interventions on the dynamics of investment in power generation in electricity markets in our approach using markov chains the electric demand and growth of fuel prices have been modeled dp has been used for solving the generation expansion planning gep problem investment strategies of other investors in the market are modeled as constraints the income of the investor is calculated by modeling strategic interactions among market players in the spot energy market the cournot game concept has been applied and the nash equilibrium is calculated for each state and stage of dp simulation results confirm that the proposed framework is an appropriate decision support tool that provides useful information about dynamics of investment

system dynamic modeling of energy savings in the us food industry abstract in the united states the food industry alone accounts for approximately 19 of the total energy consumed the objective of this study is to forecast the food related energy consumption and evaluate policy alternatives for reducing food related energy consumption in the medium and long term influential factors of energy consumption in the food industry include population growth rate gdp agriculture s share of gdp food waste technologies and agricultural investment based on the life cycle of the food industry five life stages were considered agricultural production industrial processing and packaging transportation wholesale and retail and household in this study based on the causal relationships and feedback loops between these factors and the energy consumed for each life stage a system dynamics sd model was designed to simulate the situation for the us food industry policy options of reducing waste percentage and improving industrial energy productivity are incorporated for building the energy use mitigation scenarios by implementing the integrated mitigation scenarios a 9 43 reduction in total food system energy consumption can be attained in 2030

modeling long term dynamics of electricity markets in the last decade many countries have restructured their electricity industries by introducing competition in their power generation sectors although some restructuring has been regarded as successful the short experience accumulated with liberalized power markets does not allow making any founded assertion about their long term behavior long term prices and long term supply reliability are now center of interest this concerns firms considering investments in generation capacity and regulatory authorities interested in assuring the long term supply adequacy and the stability of power markets in order to gain significant insight into the long term behavior of liberalized power markets in this paper a simulation model based on system dynamics is proposed and the underlying mathematical formulations extensively discussed unlike classical market models based on the assumption that market outcomes replicate the results of a centrally made optimization the approach presented here focuses on replicating the system structure of power markets and the logic of relationships among system components in order to derive its dynamical response the simulations suggest that there might be serious problems to adjust early enough the generation capacity necessary to maintain stable reserve margins and consequently stable long term price levels because of feedback loops embedded in the structure of power markets and the existence of some time lags the long term market development might exhibit a quite volatile behavior by varying some exogenous inputs a sensitivity analysis is carried out to assess the influence of these factors on the long run market dynamics

the evolution of hard coal trade in the pacific market abstract this article analyses the evolution of hard coal trade in the asia pacific region known as the pacific market from the 1980s to the present years it investigates the development of the trade pattern the nature of contracts the price setting the supply demand and the future of trade over the last two decades the international trade in the pacific market has achieved dramatic increases in coal commerce this achievement is due to strong demand in japan and north east asian countries and progressive coal export in australia and indonesia it is likely that this market will continue to expand and become a more important market in replacing the atlantic market in this market historically long term supply contracts were usual and concluded between producer and consumer even recently there are still annual contracts but with a small number of deals in contrast spot transactions are now becoming more important previously japan had been influential in price setting by establishing a benchmark price with australian coal suppliers afterward a reference price was becoming a trend nowadays spot price indices such as the barlow jonker the barlow jonker acr and globalcoal have become important to set the price the pacific market growth is not without problems the exporter countries particularly australia and indonesia have some challenges that if they are not resolved at present it would implicate the performance of the coal trade

lost in transition comparing strategies of electricity companies in delhi this paper examines the notion of energy transition when implemented by private utilities in 2000 the delhi government privatized electricity distribution to three private distribution companies most research was concerned with the impact of privatization on energy reliability tariff settings and regulation issues this paper looks at two under researched themes the expansion of services to poorer neighborhoods and the rollout of clean energy policies this focus allows to unpack the materiality of socio technical systems to analyze how energy infrastructures are being technically deployed on the ground and to identify which social approach is used to detail the specific practices of each company provides a more nuanced and accurate understanding of the reform in depth analysis of the three private utilities show that they interpret the reform mandate differently they use a varied range of technical tools they respond differently to social concerns in poorer neighborhoods and they have distinctive internal management choices and corporate cultures all these four factors can strengthen or undermine the transition towards increased access and clean energy

long term diffusion dynamics of alternative fuel vehicles in brazil abstract alternative fuel vehicles afv are a promising alternative to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the transportation sector and ultimately to contribute to a more sustainable society within the current commitments of the brazilian government to international agreements in terms of emissions reductions by 2030 some new policies have been implemented in order to incentivize the diffusion of afv in the country yet how will these policies contribute to the goal of increasing its fleet in the long term how long will it take and what are the differences if any among the policies in terms of their effectiveness are questions that remain unanswered in this sense the main aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of public policies in the long term diffusion dynamics of afv in brazil in order to do so a system dynamics model is developed based on the generalized bass diffusion model the cobb douglas function and the learning curve theory the model is used to test four different policies and some uncertainties related to i the exemption of the import duty ii the reduction of the motor vehicle property tax iii the exemption of the tax on manufacturing goods and iv a banning regulation for internal combustion engine vehicles in the long term the results highlight the importance of the current incentive policies but at the same time call for reinforcing efforts in order to increase the afv fleet to significant values by 2030 conversely the banning regulation obtains a higher diffusion rate but only achieves significant values by 2060 the paper concludes by showing the main contributions and policy implications of the effectiveness of the four policies studied as well as some suggestions for future work

an index of inequality with applications to horizontal equity and social mobility horizontal equity and social mobility are discussed in terms of a non utilitarian social welfare function which takes account of the process by which an ex ante distribution is mapped into an ex post distribution by the tax system for example an index of inequality is proposed which decomposes into two components corresponding to vertical and horizontal equity respectively a functional form for the social welfare function is derived for the purposes of empirical work and an application to data for 5895 uk households is presented the paper contains a theoretical application of the index to a model of optimal taxation it is conventional to assess the merits of alternative public policies in terms of a trade off between equity and efficiency in practice however a change in say the tax system involves three effects first it may have incentive or disincentive effects leading to efficiency gains or losses secondly it may alter the distribution of welfare levels thirdly it may alter the ranking of individuals or households within the distribution these three effects correspond to efficiency vertical equity and we shall argue certain aspects of horizontal equity respectively and any assessment of a tax change must take into account all three the principal assumption of this paper is that government is concerned about the trade off between these three effects a strict utilitarian is concerned only with the consequences of an action and in the evaluation of a particular reform a utilitarian measure of social welfare is defined over the vector of ex post utilities no account is taken of the process by which the vector of ex ante utilities is mapped into the ex post vector and no ethical status is awarded to the ex ante distribution one does not have to adopt an entitlement theory of justice to believe that the utilitarian approach may ignore some relevant considerations such as the fairness of the redistributive process a striking example of this arises in the model used by mirrlees 11 to examine optimal income taxation in that model individuals have identical preferences defined over consumption and leisure and differ only in respect of their potential wage rates or ability levels clearly in the absence of taxation individual utility is an increasing function of ability suppose the government uses redistributive lump sum taxes to achieve the first best optimum then as mirrlees 11 12 shows the first best optimum for a utilitarian social welfare

dynamic governance of clean energy markets how technical innovation could accelerate climate policies abstract this article explores the governmental means to accelerate technical progress in climate protection it is based on selected best practice cases in which the diffusion of low carbon technologies has been accelerated by ambitious policies the empirical cases involve not just renewable energies but also energy efficiency the latter being considered more difficult in terms of governance the examples are taken from advanced oecd countries as well as from emerging economies this article will explore which factors have caused this dynamic development the conclusion reached will show that the interaction of positive feedback mechanisms which has already been described as virtuous cycle provides only a plausible theoretical explanation if the policy cycle is added to the market cycle and the innovation cycle climate policy should not only define ambitious targets but also address all three feedback mechanisms

optimal electricity supply reliability using customer shortage costs abstract this paper describes an economic cost benefit method for determining the optimal power system capacity and reliability of electricity supply using customer shortage costs the approach is based upon identifying a system plan that simultaneously considers cost of service as well as value of service and maximizes the net economic benefits taking into account the interdependence between electricity reliability price and demand in contrast to the existing literature on this subject which considers only customer outage costs this paper argues that it is the related but considerably broader notion of customer shortage cost that is more relevant in the context of optimizing the reliability of electricity supply the paper develops a method for estimating shortage costs and sketches an integrated framework for optimizing reliability using such costs

green electricity market development lessons from europe and the us this study compares the development and implementation of green electricity policies in germany the netherlands sweden and the united states a set of countries applying a range of policy instruments to encourage electricity from renewable energy sources a general tendency is identified that policies shift emphasis from r d stimulation towards dissemination and market application of renewable energy technologies we argue that in light of the long term nature of policy goals on energy security mitigation of climate change and environmental protection the applied range of policy instruments may be lacking in providing incentives for the long term development of new technologies clarifying policy objectives would allow careful selection of policy instruments including support for r d improved capacity building for policy implementation is also important

the effect of carbon tax on per capita co2 emissions new huadu business school 09zd050 national social science foundation of china 09zd050 08ajy022 research foundation of ministry of education of china 10jzd0018 fundamental research funds for the central universities 2010221051

gauging the future competitiveness of renewable energy in colombia this article aims to assess the likely competitiveness of different forms of renewable energy in colombia over the next 25 years to this end it compares the likely power production cost for a set of renewable energy sources and compares them to the likely long run cost of traditional energy costs from global and local externalities through the use of traditional energy sources are also factored into the analysis the key conclusion of the article is that while solar pv will likely remain uncompetitive under any future cost scenario cost paths for small hydro modern biomass or geothermal are already close enough to being competitive so that appropriate government intervention may make the decisive difference in making these technologies competitive with conventional energy technologies

from planning to strategy in the electricity industry abstract as more utility markets are deregulated and competition is introduced there is an increasing need to understand how the planning methods used under monopoly have to change to take the new deregulated environment into account although this might seem relatively trivial it has been a major problem for a large number of utilities which have continued using the same planning approaches that they used when they were monopolies in this paper we first describe the environment which under monopoly conditions gave rise to the use of mainly operational research methods for planning we then argue that deregulation has changed the fundamental assumptions making the planning methods used under monopoly less useful after deregulation finally we review a number of methods that utilities should consider using when they formulate strategy in deregulated markets

availibility of renewable energy sources in turkey current situation potential government policies and the eu perspective abstract this study aims to explore the availability and potential of renewable energy sources in turkey as well as assessing related government policies financial and environmental aspects of renewable energy projects turkey is a country which has the highest hydropower wind and geothermal energy potential among european countries as a european union eu candidate several incentives were developed in turkey for electricity generation from renewable energy sources by the enactment of law no 5346 in 2005 which was later restructured by law no 6094 in 2010 the most important ones are ease of land acquisition and feed in tariffs which promise purchasing of electricity generated and domestic manufacturing of equipment by the private companies with a price of 5 30 9 69 and 0 3 2 55 c kwh respectively depending on the type of the renewable and the equipment however feed in tariff amounts take reservoir area into account instead of installed capacity for hydroelectric power plants moreover environmental impact assessment eia report is not mandatory for all renewable energy plants according to the multi criteria analysis tool developed in this study to evaluate the renewable energy source res technologies the most appropriate renewable energy alternative for turkey is biomass simply because of the highest social benefit among others

estimating the impact of efficiency standards on the uncertainty of the northwest electric system the uncertainty of the northwest electric system was the subject of a recent study for the bonneville power administration system uncertainty was described along two dimensions over a twenty year planning period one dimension was uncertainty in the demand for electricity the second dimension was uncertainty in the price of electricity the study focused on the impact of efficiency standards that would reduce the electricity used in new buildings and appliances many planners expect that the standards would reduce the long term uncertainty in electricity demand some planners have come to realize that the standards could also reduce the long term uncertainty in the price of electricity this paper explains the case study approach to estimating the magnitude of these reductions in uncertainty i describe the analytical approach and the key findings of the study and conclude with a discussion of the study s impact on decision making in the region

the impact of investors risk aversion on the performances of capacity remuneration mechanisms abstract this paper analyses the impact of risk aversion on the performances of capacity remuneration mechanisms with investors facing an uncertain peak load three market designs are studied for this purpose a competitive energy only market a capacity market and a strategic reserve mechanism a simulation model based on system dynamics is developed in order to represent investment decisions and analyse the behaviour of each market design risk aversion is modelled through the computation of conditional value at risk the results are discussed in terms of impact on the reliability ability to limit shortages and cost total generation costs of the studied market designs when comparing the three market designs the capacity market seems to be the least affected by the introduction of risk aversion both in terms of cost and reliability this result suggests that implementing a capacity market is preferable in order to deal with the adverse effects of risk aversion given the simulations and parameters that were used

coal policies and trade barriers abstract the purpose of this paper is to treat in some depth recent work performed by the iea secretariat in analysing barriers to coal trade in member countries the concept of the producer subsidy equivalent pse as a measure of financial transfers to the coal industry is described along with its advantages and limitations as illustration summary results for the years 1982 1988 are given the paper concludes with a discussion of the arguments for and against maintaining support for domestic coal production

a real options evaluation model for the diffusion prospects of new renewable power generation technologies this study presents a policy planning model that integrates learning curve information on renewable power generation technologies into a dynamic programming formulation featuring real options analysis the model recursively evaluates a set of investment alternatives on a year by year basis thereby taking into account that the flexibility to delay an irreversible investment expenditure can profoundly affect the diffusion prospects of renewable power generation technologies price uncertainty is introduced through stochastic processes for the average wholesale price of electricity and for input fuel prices demand for electricity is assumed to be increasingly price sensitive as the electricity market deregulation proceeds reflecting new options of consumers to react to electricity price changes such as time of use pricing unbundled electricity services and choice of supplier the empirical analysis is based on data for the turkish electricity supply industry apart from general implications for policy making it provides some interesting insights about the impact of uncertainty and technical change on the diffusion of various emerging renewable energy technologies

a literature review of economic studies on carbon pricing and australian wholesale electricity markets abstract with the ongoing development of australian anthropogenic climate change mitigation policies there has been a steady increase in modelling studies undertaken to estimate australian carbon prices and their impact on existing electricity markets this article summarises some of the more prominent studies completed by many of australia s foremost economic modelling firms we developed a simple approach for testing the consistency of these studies and their findings in relation to carbon pass through unfortunately we have established that the studies are entirely inconsistent in their estimation of carbon pass through furthermore we were unable to establish why the estimation of carbon pass through varies so significantly this has important implications for policy makers given much of the compensation to be paid to households and businesses under the clean energy future package is predicated on simple assumptions of carbon pass through based upon our analysis of these economic studies our conclusion is that australian policy makers are best guided by relying upon the numerous a posteriori estimations of pass through in the european union emissions trading scheme ets rather than australian a priori studies

clean and secure power supply a system dynamics based appraisal abstract across the world the electricity industry is changing with the advent of renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power as these are exposed to intermittency seasonality and global climate variation policy makers concerns are now shifting towards security of supply in fact the industry confronts three conflicting goals security of supply competitive prices to customers and environmental protection in this context and given the multiple uncertainties of technology transformation this paper uses modelling based scenario analysis to investigate different extreme and plausible futures simulation is used to analyse policies aimed at increasing the penetration of renewables and to explore how these energy sources may affect system reliability this paper explores the effect of incorporating renewables in colombia where a large hydroelectric component has led to insufficient electricity being available during droughts and to high electricity price volatility though not intuitive at first glance this paper shows that renewables may contribute to i increased security of supply through complementarity e g it does not rain when the sun shines ii reduced price volatility in the medium term and iii increased industry sustainability

the effect of local and global learning on the cost of renewable energy in developing countries high upfront costs are a critical barrier for investments in clean infrastructure technologies in developing countries this paper uses a case study of thailand s electricity sector to create realistic estimates for the relative contributions of local and global technological learning to reducing these cost in the future and discusses implications of such learnings for international climate policy for six renewable electricity technologies we derive estimates for the share of locally and globally sourced goods and services and analyze the effects of local and global learning during the implementation of thailand s renewable energy targets for 2021 our results suggest that in aggregate the largest potential for cost reduction lies in local learning this finding lends quantitative support to the argument that the conditions enabling local learning such as a skilled workforce a stable regulatory framework and the establishment of sustainable business models have a more significant impact on cost of renewable energy in developing countries than global technology learning curves the recent shift of international support under the united nations framework convention on climate change towards country specific technology support is therefore promising however our results also show that the relative importance of local and global learning differs significantly between technologies and is determined by technology and country characteristics this suggests that international support need to consider both the global perspective and local context and framework conditions in order to reap the full benefits of technological learning across the wide range of clean technologies

economic costs of electricity supply interruptions us and foreign experience abstract this paper investigates the costs of interruptions in electricity service to customers this information is a key input in planning power system reliability using an economic cost benefit approach the paper reviews the literature from the perspective of identifying alternate methodological approaches used their strengths and weaknesses and potential for bias it presents and compares outage cost estimates found in the literature on a common denominator basis it attempts to explain the sources of the wide range of variation observed in different study estimates and it identifies the need for further work on this important topic

regulation and development of the argentinean gas market gas markets are becoming increasingly important around the world and the long term evolution of these markets is of strategic importance for many countries this makes it essential to understand how regulation and intervention in these markets affects the long term prospect for the secure supply of gas we use argentina as a case to illustrate some of the issues and consequences of gas regulation argentina is a country that has had a significant increase in the use of gas over the years and where a potential gas deficit looms large in the present and the future based on a simulation model developed to understand the supply of gas in argentina we discuss how regulation will influence the long term supply of gas in both argentina and surrounding countries using the model we develop a series of scenarios to highlight the consequences of different current and possible future interventions in the market by the regulator finally we discuss short term regulatory options to reduce the impact of a gas deficit and the possibility of securing the long term supply of gas in argentina

sensitivity of reserve margin to factors influencing investment behaviour in the electricity market of england and wales abstract the electricity generation and distribution industries of england and wales have recently undergone major re structuring as part of the privatization process of taking them out of the public sector on the generation side three major companies have been created which compete both with each other and with the new independent companies who are expected to enter the market trading between generators and distributors is controlled centrally by a pool system which attempts to ensure the optimal operation of the system in the short term and gives a pricing signal for longer term investment this pricing signal depends upon an a priori loss of load probability this paper is intended to provide insights into how the investment in capacity for generation could evolve according to various regulatory conditions economic assumptions degrees of competition and the strategic behaviour of the separate companies using a system dynamics approach a simulation model of investment is developed to generate insights into the volatility of the reserve margin variations in the loss of load probability and the various market share scenarios the degree of uncertainty in the demand the amount of information exchange between competitors and the degree of foresight in planning are considered as well as different financial or market share objectives for companies

simulating the new british electricity market reform abstract the british government is implementing fully its novel electricity market reform gb emr its objective in line with european directives aims at replacing existing nuclear and coal plant with low carbon systems to deliver reliable and affordable power though the gb emr has proposed several policy instruments for meeting its objectives and the academic literature has discussed the main issues no known report includes a comprehensive and dynamic simulation exercise that assesses the extent of this profound and important initiative this paper presents a system dynamics model that supports analysis of long term effects of the various policy instruments that have been proposed in the gb emr focusing on environmental quality security of supply and economic sustainability using lessons learned from simulation the paper concludes that effectively achieving the gb emr objectives requires this comprehensive intervention or a similar one that includes the promotion of low carbon electricity generation through the simultaneous implementation of various direct and indirect incentives such as a carbon price floor a feed in tariff fit and a capacity mechanism

the politics of regulation in the turkish electricity market abstract turkey began reforming the electricity market in 2001 the regulatory reform aimed to liberalize the market however the institutional and political structure was not ready for creating an efficiently working competition the independent regulator did not have both experience and will to direct the industry to a more competitive environment currently the reform has slowed down and political preferences drive the industry this paper studies the reasons for the slowdown in the reform efforts by focusing on the relationships between the government judiciary and the independent regulator we conclude that strategic behaviors of players in the market including the judiciary the government and the regulator have made the introduction of competition to the market more costly

investment practices in australian coal the practice and profit of quasi integration in the australia japan coal trade abstract the australian coal industry has frequently been described as a perpetual case of profitless prosperity industry literature on the subject usually sources this problem to government charges on the industry and to labour costs however these alleged problems do not appear to have diminished the enthusiasm for new investment in the industry this study argues that a more complete explanation must look at who is investing in the australian coal industry what the rationale for those investments is how they are financed and what their specific profitability is the particular examination made here is of the quasi integration investment practices of japanese trading steel and power companies easily the largest group of buyers in the international coal trade the close co operation between japanese government and business in this strategic raw materials industry is documented as are the methods of subsidised investment an examination of the financial performance of these companies australian coal investments shows that the profitability of their investments is significantly below that of most other investors in australian mining over a recent 5 year period taken together there is significant support for the conclusion that a process of co ordinated quasi integration has taken place and that the principal aim of such investments has not been to make profits from coal mining these results should make other prospective investors reconsider the benefits of quasi integration and should also be a public policy issue for australian governments seeking to encourage the development of profitable prosperity in the australian coal industry

the influence of south korean energy policy on opec oil exports abstract south korea is the fifth top oil importer worldwide with 64 of its oil coming from opec member countries over the last 30 years south korea accounted for a rapid increase in energy use this in turn led south korea to be totally dependent on oil imports due to this increase south korea has been experiencing drastic changes in its energy system which could potentially impact its dependence on opec oil import external and internal factors have forced south korea to change its energy strategy and targets these targets would be achieved by reducing its energy intensity and utilizing electricity and renewable energies in order to reduce its dependence on oil consumption low carbon green growth is one policy along with many other energy policies developed by south korea for reducing greenhouse gases thus this policy is receiving a remarkable attention today these national policies along with other international ones are needed to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and promote other green initiatives this study puts emphasis on these policies as well as uses them to predict the future energy profile of south korea and how these policies will impact on oil imports from opec member countries

least cost energy strategies for power system expansion abstract this paper describes a theoretical framework and practical procedure for identifying least cost energy strategies for power system expansion under such a strategy the socially optimal decision is defined by a least cost combination of not only conventional supply side generating options but also conservation and renewable resource options such that the cost of providing an incremental unit of electricity from all resources is the same in addition under a least cost energy strategy the reliability of electricity supply is determined on an economically optimal basis results of an actual case study of the pacific northwest region of the usa are presented

assessing emissions mitigation energy policy under integrated supply and demand analysis the colombian case the effects of greenhouse gases on climate variation set policy challenges for the energy industry the largest greenhouse gas contributor globally in this context the energy industry is being subjected to reforms focussing on the environment internalisation of emission costs and the promotion of cleaner technologies to overcome the challenges posed by the emission of greenhouse gases governments have implemented mitigation policies in the power supply industries most policy instruments include either financial incentives or goals and standards and these generate impacts on electricity prices and consumer behaviour this paper models policies effects on prices and demand through an integrated demand and supply analysis for the colombian case while simulation of carbon taxes shows important reductions of fossil fuelled power capacity a feed in tariff policy promotes clean technologies though not significantly reducing use of fossil technologies when applied simultaneously policy has a greater impact on both emission reductions and the diffusion of clean technologies while only increasing electricity prices slightly even when price elasticity of demand is low such policies may have a significant effect on the penetration of renewables and emissions furthermore this structured modelling of policy helps explain how the ultimate intended goal sustainable emissions reduction might be achieved

the environmental paradox in generation how south america is gradually becoming more dependent on thermal generation there has been an increasing focus on global warming emission of green house gases ghg and the problems this might create in this article we review the trend in sustainable and renewable electricity generation in south america where the generation portfolio increasingly depends on thermal generation in particular gas south america is a region that has relatively low emissions but the current development is not desirable in environmental terms we analyze the underlying reasons for this development which is related to security of supply deregulation and the cost of renewable energy we review and discuss the policies to promote renewables in the region we analyze the potential advantages and drawbacks of different types of market interventions such as direct subsidies that create potentially strong market distortions more sophisticated market interventions that might be less intrusive but not necessarily as effective as e g firm energy markets we also review market based solutions such as the clean market mechanism and its potential and the use of renewable electricity in non interconnected zones which might be one of the most economically attractive applications of renewables however without a stronger and more aggressive intervention from the governments in the region it is unlikely that the increase in thermal generation can be stopped

the impact of oil company investment on the world coal industry overcapacity and price destabilization 1973 1992 this paper investigates the impact of oil company investments on the world coal industry since the first oil price shock of 1973 it details the scope of these investments both in the usa and elsewhere and demonstrates how they have served to destabilize and depress international coal prices in particular it establishes a novel and robust link between oil company investment in us coal which is sold on the domestic market and the behaviour of us coal export prices

how capacity mechanisms drive technology choice in power generation the case of colombia abstract colombia enacted its first legal framework for promoting alternative energies in 2001 and a second framework in 2014 since the generation technology mix has not changed since 2000 there is a need to understand how regulation and market structure affect the adoption of technologies in this paper we address the question of what has been the impact of the capacity mechanisms adopted during the 2000s on technology choices for power generation in colombia our approach is to analyze the evolution of market structure and regulation we found that regulatory uncertainty and low prices drove a surge of small hydro plants during the 2000s during the 2010s the new regulatory focus on reliability of supply has resulted in increased coal fueled generation and large hydro this increased reliance on hydro power can further delay the entry of renewable technologies and the diversification of the colombian portfolio

international market integration for natural gas a cointegration analysis of prices in europe north america and japan this paper investigates the degree of integration of natural gas markets in europe north america and japan in the time period between the early 1990s and 2004 the relationship between international gas market prices and their relation to the oil price are explored through principal components analysis and johansen likelihood based cointegration procedure both of them show a high level of natural gas market integration within europe between the european and japanese markets as well as within the north american market at the same time the obtained results suggest that the european respectively japanese and the north american markets were not integrated

a dynamic simulation model for assessing the overall impact of incentive policies on power system reliability costs and environment abstract the liberalization of power markets has entailed dramatic changes in power system planning worldwide the inception of new alternative technologies smart grids and distributed generation and storage is expected to make system planning even more challenging government policies still play a major role in the evolution of a country s power generation mix even in those countries with liberalized markets this paper presents a system dynamics model aimed at assessing the overall technical economic and environmental impact of renewable energy incentives and capacity payment policies the model has been used to simulate spain s power industry in order to assess the impact of electric power policies with the goal of getting insights regarding how to achieve an optimum power generation mix the main conclusions of the present paper are i the necessity of specific regulatory actions in spain in order to keep adequate reliability levels avoid price spikes and boom and bust investment cycles as well as to deploy specific technologies ii the fact that capacity payments are a better instrument for keeping adequate reserve margins and avoiding power price spikes than renewable energy incentives and iii the evidence that both instruments entail additional system costs over the base case scenario

the effect of conservation programmes on electric utility earnings results of two case studies abstract this paper develops methods to measure the impact of conservation programmes on electric utility earnings the methods are applied to two case studies detroit edison represents a case where impacts are unfavourable this utility has excess capacity which is only made worse by conservation pacific gas and electric represents a case where conservation helps defer the need for new capacity even in this case programmes targeted at summer peak demand are more beneficial than those which save baseload energy conditions determining the earnings impact of conservation are complex involving regulatory factors that are specific to individual utilities

a decision support tool for the analysis of pricing investment and regulatory processes in a decentralized electricity market abstract after the liberalization of the electricity generation industry capacity expansion decisions are made by multiple self oriented power companies unlike the centralized environment decision making of market participants is now guided by price signal feedbacks and by an imperfect foresight of the future market conditions and competitor actions that they will face in such an environment decision makers need to better understand long term dynamics of the supply and demand sides of the power market in this study a system dynamics model is developed to better understand and analyze the decentralized and competitive electricity market dynamics in the long run the developed simulation model oversees a 20 year planning horizon it includes a demand module a capacity expansion module a power generation module an accounting and finance module various competitors a regulatory body and a bidding mechanism many features singularities and tools of decentralized markets such as capacity withholding enforced divestment long term contracts price elastic demands incentives disincentives are also incorporated into the model public regulators and power companies are potential users of the model for learning and decision support in policy design and strategic planning results of scenario analysis are presented to illustrate potential use of the model

incentives for renewable energy in reformed latin american electricity markets the colombian case abstract given the importance of renewable energy sources for reducing the threat of global climatic change without compromising economic development this paper explores regulatory alternatives that may facilitate the introduction of renewable energy in the colombian electricity market the analysis is based on a simulation model of the electricity market that represents the behaviour of the agents involved and their decision to invest according to proposed incentives the possible expansion of renewable energy depending on different incentives is examined this research is carried out in the latin american context and accordingly we present the exploitation potential of renewable sources for electricity generation in the region this paper shows how restructuring electricity markets such as the colombian and others in latin america may be an efficient means to promote the use of renewable energy

simulating power integration in latin america to assess challenges opportunities and threats abstract integration of electricity markets started to spread under the world wide trend to economic liberalization while some regions are managing better than others lessons both political and technical highlight challenges ahead that need to be overcome since the early 2000s panama colombia ecuador and peru have decided to integrate their electricity markets eventually creating an enormous latin american electricity exchange ranging from mexico to chile this poses opportunities and threats to the region as it involves cooperation trust and the will to overcome difficulties that may arise in this direction we developed a system dynamics model linked to an iterative algorithm to assess the likely effects of integration on both system expansion and security of supply the model helps us understand the logic of the long term system behavior under different policies assuming market coupling as the dispatch mechanism based on theoretical grounds and after analyzing simulation results under different scenarios we conclude that the integration of electricity markets may render important opportunities regarding security of supply and efficiency and consequently energy might be supplied at lower prices using cleaner technologies however benefits largely depend on policy regulation and technical issues

the world price of coal a significant increase in the seaborne trade for coal over the past 20 years has unified formerly separate coal markets into a world market in which prices move in tandem by virtue of its large domestic market the usa has become the residual supplier and price setter in the world coal market changes in multifactor productivity have been the primary cause of the long term fluctuations in coal prices that have been observed in the usa since the end of the second world war and in the world coal market

evaluating the effect of technology transformation on the electricity utility industry abstract the technology shift from fossil fuelled systems to renewable energies has been promoted by governments with the purpose of decarbonising the power industry however rapid technology progress has prompted disruptive changes that transformed market structures incumbent electricity utilities particularly those based on fossil fuel plant are shifting from their stable and predictable situation to confront challenges from those that offer alternative energy services in this new environment the industry will benefit from mid to long term sector foresight the paper studies the potential impact of renewable energy sources res on electricity systems specifically on the generation and distribution businesses for this purpose a fairly detailed and integrated supply and demand based system dynamics model has been built to quantify the extent of their potential impact the model disaggregates the household sector which may generate a significant part of its electricity using rooftop solar energy this is illustrated by examining a utility engaged in the generation and distribution businesses in the colombian electricity market through simulation runs this paper concludes that subject to policy and all other things remaining equal solar rooftop generation is a major threat for utilities while the generation business is most affected in the short term the distribution business is the one most impacted in the long term and jointly they may induce the utility death spiral

an improved mechanism for capacity payment based on system dynamics modeling for investment planning in competitive electricity environment many countries have experienced restructuring in their electric utilities this restructuring has presented the power industries with new challenges the most important of which is long term investment planning under uncertain conditions this paper presents an improved mechanism for capacity payment the mechanism has been investigated based on system dynamic modeling in our proposed mechanism generators will recover a part of their investment through capacity payment while the payment for any plant remains constant during the operation period it depends on the investment needed to build it the main factors affecting long term planning have been considered in our model the approach can be used to investigate the effects of fixed as well as variable capacity payment in market investment we used the probability density function of load as a new concept to calculate average market price delays in unit constructions estimation of demand and market capacity growth during construction periods have been included in the proposed algorithm as parameters which affect the regulator s decision for changing capacity payment the model can be used by regulators to investigate strategies that may affect the fluctuations in the market

the roles of inter fuel substitution and inter market contagion in driving energy prices evidences from china s coal market abstract coal has been dominating energy supply and consumption in china with the country becoming the largest energy supplier and consumer worldwide due to inter fuel substitution of crude oil and inter market contagion of international coal market china s coal price might be interrelated with crude oil price and international coal price however the precise roles of these two effects in determining china s coal price are unknown this paper contributes to previous literature by investigating this issue we find that co movements between china s coal price and crude oil price largely hinge on the shares of oil and coal in china s energy mix while its co movements with international coal price depend on scales of coal trade inter fuel substitution dominated the interaction of china s coal market with other energy types but the importance of inter market contagion has been increasing we also find that china might have become an originator for driving the returns of crude oil and international coal in particular after 2008 furthermore china s coal market is still a net volatility recipient for shocks from both crude oil market and international coal market given the increased integration of global energy markets we anticipate this paper to provide a better understanding on the dynamic changes in china s coal prices

ex post welfare economics and the theory of merit goods in recent years a number of papers have questioned the extension of the main theorems of welfare economics to a world of uncertainty stemming from the work of arrow 1953 and debreu 1959 the arrow debreu extension is based on the idea that consumer preferences may be defined on state contingent commodities as a special but important case these preferences may be represented by von neumann morgenstern utilities with this interpretation of the commodity space the main theorems of weltare economics remain valid in a world of uncertainty a competitive equilibrium is a pareto optimum a pareto optimum can be sustained as a competitive equilibrium and the diagnosis of the causes of market failure remains as before there are several reasons why one may feel uneasy about this construction a good deal of attention has been paid to the assumption of universality of markets necessary to establish the connection between equilibrium and optimum on a deeper level perhaps are the doubts that one may have about the criterion of welfare or efficiency first should social welfare be a function of individuals expected utilities or should the appropriate concept be that of expected welfare second if probability beliefs are not identical across individuals whose probabilities if any should be used for welfare evaluation in the next section we review some concepts and results in the recent literature on ex post welfare economics and in section ii it is argued that this literature can provide the foundations for a more satisfactory theory of merit goods a concept originally introduced by musgrave 1959 this idea is applied in section iii to a model with a complete set of markets in the arrow debreu sense and in sections iv and v to an incomplete markets model which provides the most natural framework for the study of merit goods various remarks on further aspects of the problem are collected in the concluding section of the paper

sustainable development modelling for the energy sector sustainable residential energy consumption involves a complex socially embedded and socially constructed market a system dynamics approach has been used to explore the short medium and long term impact of different national consumer oriented energy efficiency policies in the residential building sector in this paper the system dynamics model has been validated by a case study using historical data from a subsidy scheme and accompanying policy measures in latvia results obtained by the validity tests showed that the model generated behaviour is consistent with available data and is capable of generating the right behaviour for the right reasons simulation results show that national energy efficiency goals cannot be met by 2016 and the absence of major consumer oriented policy tools slows down the diffusion process of energy efficiency projects it also highlights that system dynamics has a high potential to be used for sustainable end use energy policy planning at both national and sub sectoral levels

dynamic analysis of various investment incentives and regional capacity assignment in iranian electricity market this paper develops a system dynamics model to analyze the impacts of different kinds of capacity payment as investment incentive mechanisms in iranian electricity market since it is aimed that the incurred capital and operating costs of generation technologies be recovered in iranian electricity pool the noncompetitive capacity payment mechanism has been introduced for this purpose in order to encourage new investments in electric power generation system in the current mechanism the capacity payments are designated to the generating units in the whole country electricity market an annual base value of capacity payment is proposed based on recovering the capital cost of a benchmark generation technology this value is altered according to the operational reserve in the day ahead electricity market this supporting policy is simulated and analyzed in the proposed dynamic framework in order to track the trend of new investments in the iranian electricity market the feasibility study of implementing the regional capacity assignment is the main focus of this paper different possible regulating policies such as floating rates for capacity payment and electricity price cap the multiple capacity payments to various technologies and the regional electricity market with territorial capacity allocation are examined in order to investigate the consequences and performances of different decisions and policies in the capacity investment of iranian electricity market

modeling technology adoption as an irreversible investment under uncertainty the case of the turkish electricity supply industry this paper studies energy conversion technology adoption in the electricity supply sector from the perspective of irreversible investments under uncertainty and with a particular interest in environmental sustainability we develop a dynamic technology adoption model that is firmly rooted in economic theory and that takes important determinants of optimal investment in available technologies e g life cycle capital and operation cost explicitly into account uncertainty is introduced for the demand for peak load capacity unit generation costs and for the average electricity price we test the model empirically by applying it to data for the turkish power supply industry the model guided optimal investment schedule based on net present value considerations exhibits significant deviations from the actual investment outcome we find that the increased adoption of natural gas fired power generation technologies in turkey in recent years while contributing to environmental sustainability has had doubtful merits from an investor s perspective

the evolution of hard coal trade in the atlantic market abstract this article analyses the evolution of hard coal trade in west europe known as the atlantic market from the 1980s to the end of 2002 it investigates the development of trade pattern nature of contracts price setting supply demand and the future of trade the region s demand has underpinned steam coal in the recent past in 2002 steam coal imports reached 155 0 mt while coking coal imports were 43 2 mt the market is progressing to become a perfect market transparent and simple in operation the spot market for coal has made the transaction bring into line the current market situations historically long term contracts were usual and concluded between producer and consumer recently there are still annual contracts but with a small number of deals the percentage of spot market has risen from 14 in 1983 to 80 in 2003 previously coal price settlement was referenced by south africa s and the us offers now spot price indices have become important in price setting the increasing power needs the advantages of reserves conditions and market systems open the opportunities for coal demand in the forthcoming years however these opportunities are not without problems the demand for reducing environmental impacts and the efforts for seeking capital to fund the investment are some of the challenges to be addressed