optimal exchange intervention for a small open economy abstract this paper investigates the optimal exchange intervension strategy for a small open economy in which both the domestic price level and domestic real gnp are endogenous with the authority s objective being to stabilize a function involving both these variables a special feature of the underlying macro model is that real balances are productive ultimately this will mean that aggregate supply is sensitive to nominal interest rates additionally both expectations and the intervention policy are designed to exploit the fact that financial market data such as exchange and interest rates are observable on a fairly current basis contrary to conventional wisdom optimal intervention will usually require accentuating not moderating current exchange rate movements

can learning affect exchange rate behavior the case of the dollar in the early 1980 s this paper demonstrates that a change in parameters of the money market that is not immediately understood will affect the behavior of exchange rate forecast errors while the market is learning the analysis is applied to the behavior of u s dollar german mark forecast errors during the early 1980 s when the market appeared to systematically underpredict the strength of the dollar consistent with this observation empirical estimates of implied forecast errors based upon bayesian learning suggest that forecast errors would have been on average negative during the period as the market came to realize the increase in u s money demand

spatial competition and vertical integration cement and concrete revisited reply in this review 1983 mark mcbride reconsiders the federal trade commission s ftc enforcement policy toward vertical mergers between cement and ready mix concrete firms in response to a significant increase in acquisitions of ready mix concrete firms by cement manufacturers during the 1960 s the ftc undertook a series of legal actions to block or dissolve the mergers the actions of the ftc constituted one of the most intensive efforts undertaken to date to challenge vertical mergers in a single industry mcbride p 1012 notes that the actions of the ftc provoked considerable debate concerning the motivation for the mergers both in the industry and in academe a significant number of articles were published advancing various reasons for the mergers in addition to the ftc s main contention that the mergers were motivated by a desire for captive markets it has been suggested that there were economies of integration or that the mergers were the outcome of an erroneous view of the potential benefits to foreclosure held by executives in the beleaguered cement industry 2 mcbride s 1983 paper offers another explanation for the mergers his argument is that vertical integration was undertaken to avoid rigid oligopolistic pricing in the cement industry 3 the empirical results presented by mcbride suggest that vertical integration was a significant factor in the decline of cement prices in the 1960 s the purpose of this comment is to point out some of the problems with mcbride s analysis in particular we show that the experimental design of his testing equation is faulty and does not offer a test of his hypothesis as a result mcbride s analysis does not provide convincing evidence on whether cement firms vertically integrated to avoid rigid oligopolistic pricing or if cement firms were merely reacting to prices that had already begun to decline our intent however is not to challenge mcbride s contention that vertical integration can provide lower prices to consumers rather we would argue that the evidence presented at the ftc hearings involving cement and ready mix concrete firms as well as mcbride s and others analyses illustrate the problems in discerning the motives for mergers 4

credible spatial preemption it is often argued that incumbent firms may deter entry by preemptive investment in new goods we show that these conclusions are reversed when multiproduct incumbentfirms may exit in response to entry once entrants are in an industry an incumbent will often want to withdraw some goods to prevent competition with the entrant from reducing profits on other goods such a reaction makes entry more attractive to a potential entrant the equilibrium industry structure is less likely to be monopolistic as the goods are better substitutes as exit costs are low and as the competition between producers of the same good is more intense

a reexamination of purchasing power parity a multicountry and multiperiod study abstract this paper re examines the purchasing power parity ppp theory in a multiple exchange rate world owing to a lack of precision in estimating the parameters many authors concluded that ppp did not hold very well in the 1970s using a time series cross sectional estimation procedure we are unable to reject the hypothesis that ppp holds in several currencies simultaneously in addition the parameters are precisely estimated this result follows from the estimation procedure which allows us to exploit the cross sectional variation in the data and the contemporaneous correlation in the deviations from ppp

spatial competition among multi store firms abstract the paper analyzes spatial cournot competition among multi store firms it demonstrates that the complex problem of determining equilibrium store locations for competing multi store firms can be approximated by a simple one in which each firm behaves as a multi store monopolist in choosing its store locations a firm s equilibrium store locations often coincide with its monopoly locations and in general converge to its monopoly locations as the demand grows larger when the firms have an equal number of stores the stores belonging to competing firms agglomerate at discrete points that coincide with each firm s monopoly store locations

excess volatility of real exchange rates in the ems some evidence from structural vars this paper argues that the effectiveness of the exchange rate mechanism erm of the european monetary system ems should be gauged by its impact on the monetary component of real exchange rate variability nominal and real shocks are separated using a bivariate structural var applied to real exchange rate data of the six original member countries participating in the erm and a control group consisting of britain and the united states the findings suggest that monetary shocks have been an important source of real exchange rate variability and that the erm has been successful in reducing the incidence of monetary shocks across its member countries prior to the ems currency crises of 1992 93 while being less successful thereafter

rational expectations and the effect of exchange rate intervention on the exchange rate a theoretical model is proposed in which the exchange rate is affected by current and capital account transactions and the central bank intervenes in the foreign exchange market by buying and selling foreign exchange the effects of this intervention on the exchange rate are explored under the assumption that exchange rate expectations are formed rationally and solutions are obtained for the perfect and imperfect foresight cases the paper concludes with a discussion of the non optimality of time inconsistent policies when exchange rate expectations are rational

activist monetary policy and exchange rate overshooting the deutsche mark dollar rate abstract after a decade of generalized floating it is clear that bilateral exchange rates exhibit more variability than the economic aggregates relative prices incomes and money supplies which generally comprise the fundamentals of theories of exchange rate determination dornbusch s overshooting hypothesis is the best known explanation of this phenomenon this paper shows that accommodative monetary policy with respect to prices has the potential to cause the economy to switch from exchange rate overshooting to undershooting using constrained maximum likelihood methods the model is estimated for germany and the united states the results provide strong evidence in support of the overshooting hypothesis for the deutsche mark dollar exchange rate

deviations from purchasing power parity and capital flows abstract this article examines the implications of deviations from purchasing power parity ppp for an investor s portfolio decision and the consequent capital flows in a two country intertemporal model with complete financial markets in the presence of deviations form ppp investors from different nations hold disparate portfolios and the equilibrium that results is not a pooling one we solve eplicitly for asset demands and derive the relationship between the direction of capital flows and deviations from ppp in contrast to the small country assumption in the existing literature the world interest rate in this model is determined endogenously

multiple product firms a nested logit approach this paper proves the existence of a symmetric equilibrium with multiproduct firms using a nested logit model of demand the demand model is parameterized by two variables that characterize different dimensions of preference for variety these reflect intragroup heterogeneity and intergroup heterogeneity a group or nest being the set of products produced by a firm there are then two dimensions to market performance the total number of firms and the range of products produced per firm it is shown that the market equilibrium involves an excessive number of firms but each firm provides too few products copyright 1992 by blackwell publishing ltd

the principle of minimum differentiation holds under sufficient heterogeneity the so called principle of minimum differentiation stated by hotelling has been challenged by many authors this paper restores the principle by showing that n firms locate at the center of the market and charge prices higher than the marginal cost of production when heterogeneity in consumers tastes is large enough

quantity competition in a spatial model the authors analyze a duopoly model where firms first choose locations on a line segment and then choose quantities in the second stage pure strategy quantity equilibria fail to exist for locations close together for low transport costs near agglomeration occurs and the firms choose locations where pure strategy quantity equilibria exist as transport costs rise firms become less direct competitors as they move away from the center of the market coauthors are james f klein eytan sheshinski and steven m slutsky we analyse a duopoly model where firms first choose locations on a line segment and then choose quantities in the second stage pure strategy quantity equilibria fail to exist for locations close together for low transport costs near agglomeration occurs and the firms choose locations where pure strategy quantity equilibria exist as transport costs rise firms become less direct competitors as they move away from the centre of the market coauthors are james f klein eytan sheshinski and stephen m slutsky

deregulation of shopping hours the impact on independent retailers and chain stores this paper studies shopping hour decisions by retail chains and independent competitors we use a salop type model where retailers compete in prices and shopping hours our results depend significantly on efficiency differences between retail chain and independent retailer if the efficiency difference is small the independent retailer may choose longer shopping hours than the retail chain and may gain from deregulation at the expense of the retail chain the opposite result emerges when the efficiency difference is large then the retail chain may benefit whereas the independent retailer loses from deregulation

imperfect competition in the international energy market a computerized nash cournot model this paper describes the conceptual structure properties and solution approach of a computerized model of the international energy market the model treats energy producers as players in a multistage noncooperative game the goal of each player or cartel of players is assumed to be maximization of discounted profit subject to technical political and resource constraints the model calculates that collection of intertemporal extraction and price paths from which a player can unilaterally deviate only at a loss the open loop nash equilibrium the model integrates the theory of exhaustible resources due to hotelling and the theory of oligopoly due to nash and cournot although useful as a teaching device to illustrate theoretical results its main function is to facilitate analysis of real world resource problems the model is flexible allowing the user to specify not only cost demand and reserve information but also assumptions about who belongs to what coalition two shortcomings deserve note t

why real interest rates cost of capital and price earnings ratios vary across countries abstract this paper examines how productivity changes affect real rates of return and price earnings ratios in a small open economy the model provides conditions under which increased productivity in a country s traded goods sector causes prices of non traded goods to increase relative to the price of traded goods under these conditions real rates of interest decline and the production of certain non traded durable goods such as capital equipment and housing immediately increase this overconstruction has two effects first the increase in capital relative to labor in these sectors increases the marginal product of labor and hence immediately causes an increase in wages and the prices of non traded goods second an oversupply of capital goods and housing depresses their rental rates in the current period thereby increasing their price to rental ratios or equivalently their price earnings ratios

convergence rates to purchasing power parity for traded and nontraded goods this article estimates the speed of the adjustment coefficient in structural error correction models we use a system method for real exchange rates of traded and nontraded goods by combining a single equation method with hansen and sargent s instrumental variables methods for linear rational expectations models we apply these methods to a modified version of mussa s model our results show that the half lives of purchasing power parity deviations for the rates of traded goods are less than 1 year and are shorter than those for general price and for nontraded goods in most cases implying a faster adjustment speed to parity

exchange rates and news a multi currency approach abstract in this paper a multi currency model is used to investigate the relationship between spot exchange rates forward rates market efficiency and new information it is shown that in a world with more than two countries the error term in the standard market efficiency tests will be correlated across rates it is also shown that the exchange rate can be expressed as a function of factors known in advance which are captured by the forward rate determined in the previous period and news the empirical results presented in the paper tend to support the model s implications

public goods and private interests understanding non residential demand for green power this article presents the results of the first large scale mail survey of non residential green power customers in the united states the survey explored the motivations attitudes and experiences of 464 business non profit and public sectorcustomers that have voluntarily opted to purchase and frequently pay a premium for renewable electricity results of this study should be of value to marketers interested in targeting these customer segments to policymakers interested in fostering and understanding non residential demand for green power and to academics pondering the motivations for firms to engage in such voluntary environmental initiatives

is the sticky price assumption reasonable for exchange rate models abstract the testable implications of sticky price exchange rate models are discussed the empirical examples suggest that the predetermined or sticky price assumption employed in recent asset models of exchange rate determination appears to be appropriate for germany japan the united states and the united kingdom

a quantitative reassessment of the purchasing power parity hypothesis evidence from norway and the united kingdom summary annual data from norway and the united kingdom from 1874 to 1971 are used to reassess the empirical performance of the purchasing power parity ppp doctrine the simple version of the ppp relationship is supported by the data only if different short run dynamics during a floating rate period 1914 1928 is allowed for two sets of factors were found to be important in amending the simple ppp model these were short run cyclical variables affecting the adjustment towards the ppp equilibrium relationship and long run structural factors such as productivity and terms of trade within this expanded model the proportionality between the exchange rate and relative price levels could not be rejected

comment upon public goods and private interests understanding non residential demand for green power this article presents a critique of the recent contribution to energy policy november 2001 by wiser fowlie and holt entitled public goods and private interests understanding non residential demand for green power in their article the aforementioned authors explore the proposition that business and other organisations adopt green power and will pay even a premium for it because of what the authors describe as altruism according to the article below although wiser et al address an important problem and raise interesting issues their attempt at challenging received theory and existing paradigms is undermined by the manner in which their research was undertaken deficiencies arise with regard to survey techniques data preparation model specification and statistical methods the deficiencies in their research methods cast doubt upon their findings facilitating alternative interpretations of their empiricism

exchange rate hysteresis large versus small policy misalignments abstract using a monetary model in the spirit of dornbusch 1976 and a sunk cost model of trade hysteresis we show that a sufficiently large policy misalignment can induce hysteresis in the trade balance and thereby alter the steady state real exchange rate hence exchange rate dynamics are path dependent since hysteresis in our model can entail industrial dislocation and the scrapping of sunk assets we suggest that these factors constitute a welfare cost of large policy misalignments that have not been considered formally additionally since the long run exchange rate is path dependent standard empirical tests of exchange rate models may involve a misspecification

econometric policy evaluation and inverse control the traditional approach to monetary policy evaluation entails a first step in which structural parameters are estimated and a second in which the performance of alternative policy rules is studied this paper combines the two steps of the traditional approach into one by estimating a structural model subject to the restriction that the central bank chooses the policy rule that minimizes expected loss the structure is a forward looking new keynesian model in which equilibrium values of output and inflation depend on expectations of future values of those variables analysis of u s data between 1965 and 2001 support the hypotheses that the sample contains two policy regimes that the fed placed far greater weight on stabilizing inflation after 1980 and that improvements in policy were available in both regimes the unified approach also sharpens estimates of structural parameters

does real interest parity hold at longer maturities abstract this paper investigates the validity of real interest parity rip for long maturities across the us britain and germany a standard view commonly referred to as the fisher hypothesis is that over long horizons movements in expected inflation dominate movements in nominal interest rates or that real interest rates are equal over the 1973 1991 sample period however rejections of conditional rip occur at all horizons extending from a quarter to five years the evidence indicates that there appears to be no tendency for expected real interest rates to be equalized over longer maturities

productivity differentials the relative price of non tradables and real exchange rates abstract this paper reconciles the apparent contradiction between recent panel unit root tests of real exchange rates and the productivity differential model proposing an alternative view that explains the coexistence of such findings real exchange rates and the relative price of non tradables reflect the gradual adjustment of mean reverting and endogenously competing factors supply and demand shocks as well as traded goods arbitrage granger causality and variance decomposition results indicate substantial simultaneity and feedback effects between real exchange rates the relative price of non tradables and productivity differentials

exchange rate effects on the volume and variability of trade flows abstract this paper investigates the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on the volume and variability of trade flows employing a signal extraction framework we show that the direction and magnitude of importers and exporters optimal trading activities depend upon the source of the uncertainty general microstructure shocks fundamental factors driving the exchange rate process or a noisy signal of policy innovations providing a rationale for the contradictory empirical evidence in the literature we also show that exchange rate uncertainty emanating from general microstructure shocks and the fundamental factors reduces the variability of trade flows while that related to a noisy signal of policy innovations increases variability

spatial competition and spatial price discrimination the analysis of spatial competition under conditions of free entry which derives its major impetus from the seminal work of losch 1954 has been conducted in general on the assumption that the competitive firm will adopt an f o b pricing scheme see for example capozza and van order 1978 and holahan 1978 greenhut 1956 does consider some of the implications of discriminatory pricing within competitive markets but his analysis adopts an essentially short run view and provides little rationale for the choice of such a pricing policy by competitive firms this is in contrast with developments in the analysis of spatial monopoly the early work of singer 1937 and hoover 1937 and subsequent developments by for example greenhut 1956 beckmann 1976 beckmann and ingene 1976 greenhut and greenhut 1977 holahan 1975 and norman 1977 indicate that the spatial monopolist should adopt a discriminatory spatial pricing policy where spatial price discrimination is taken conventionally to mean that delivered prices do not follow an f o b scheme but that all concumers equidistant from a particular supplier pay the same price it is rarely however that the results generated by the analysis of spatial monopoly are reconsidered in the analysis of spatial competition in particular although we know that spatial price discrimination will in general increase a monopolist s profit the assumption that profit maximising spatially competitive firms will adopt f o b pricing schemes has rarely been questioned and has not been questioned within the loschian competitive framework greenhut and ohta 1975a chapter 8 and chapter 8 appendix i are notable exceptions but in both cases they depart from the loschian scheme the first objective of this paper is therefore to show that when loschian competitive firms are allowed the option of discriminatory pricing i e are free of institutional constraints which require f o b pricing they will be forced to exercise that option in order to maintain normal profits secondly we shall show that if competitive conditions change the form of price discrimination will also change and that under certain competitive conditions the degree of discrimination will increase with the degree of competition leading eventually to uniform pricing thirdly we compare two competitive cases with multi plant monopoly and derive the spatial analogue of the conventional spaceless monopoly perfect competition comparison the monopolist s plants will be larger in area and total output than each competitive firm but will supply less per consumer at a higher average price welfare comparisons are less clear cut in that they are dependent upon the type of competition we assume we show however that welfare maximisation requires marginal cost pricing where marginal cost includes transport costs and so requires f o b pricing if there are economies of scale to production it follows that welfare maximisation will require production subsidy

on distance metrics in location problems product space metrics reflect the complementarity of product attributes and lead to different geometries in multidimensional spaces this matters for optimal product positioning i consider how a planner should design two substitute public goods with multiple attributes to best serve different needs attribute complementarity affects whether a given menu dominates another using an extension of the pareto criterion distancing the goods proportionately in every attribute guarantees improvement when tastes are maximally diverse the intuition is that the planner must minimize overlap in the populations the goods serve since benefits are wasted in appealing to the same individual with two offerings jel c65 d78 h41

sequential entry and deterrence with competitive spatial price discrimination abstract this paper analyzes sequential entry with perfect foresight in a competitive spatial price discrimination model with both an exogenous and an endogenous number of firms the spne locations do not coincide with the social cost minimizing locations

exchange rate predictability the main goal of this article is to provide an answer to the question does anything forecast exchange rates and if so which variables it is well known that exchange rate fluctuations are very difficult to predict using economic models and that a random walk forecasts exchange rates better than any economic model the meese and rogoff puzzle however the recent literature has identified a series of fundamentals methodologies that claim to have resolved the puzzle this article provides a critical review of the recent literature on exchange rate forecasting and illustrates the new methodologies and fundamentals that have been recently proposed in an up to date thorough empirical analysis overall our analysis of the literature and the data suggests that the answer to the question are exchange rates predictable is it depends on the choice of predictor forecast horizon sample period model and forecast evaluation method predictability is most apparent when one or more of the following hold the predictors are taylor rule or net foreign assets the model is linear and a small number of parameters are estimated the toughest benchmark is the random walk without drift

cournot competition yields spatial agglomeration most theoretical models of spatial competition show a strong tendency toward spatial dispersion of firms yet common observations suggest that firms tend to agglomerate in this paper the authors show that competition between cournot type oligopolists that discriminate over space leads to spatial agglomeration one implication is that firms do not necessarily earn supernormal profits at the free entry equilibrium copyright 1991 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

when to exit a product evidence from the u s motion picture exhibition market when is it optimal for a multi product firm to exit a product we analyze strategic product exit using data on motion pictures exhibition choices in a major metropolitan first run market to estimate the survivor function for films at a given theatre this analysis indicates that a film s survival at a particular theatre is affected by intra firm relative performance and interfirm competitive pressures we find that theatres within chains avoid business stealing preliminary analysis further suggests that theatres compete for market share with neighboring theatres by increasing the time to exit when the competing theatre is owned by a different chain this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

stochastic trends and economic fluctuations in a large open economy abstract this study examines the role of stochastic trends in real exchange rates and foreign output in explaining economic fluctuations in the united states while many of the results are consistent with recent closed economy studies the evidence shows that external shocks have significant short run effects on economic fluctuations even in a large country a real appreciation of the dollar leads to permanent decreases in net exports and temporary decreases in output permanent shocks to real exchange rates have surprisingly large effects on output over the course of the normal business cycle

monetary policy in the united states under flexible exchange rates this paper estimates and evaluates monetary policy rules within the context of a structural open economy macroeconomic model of the united states under flexible exchange rates the major result is that a monetary policy rule which stabilizes the rate of growth of nominal gnp receives considerable empirical support the rule provides a better fit than a number of alternatives including strict inflation stability strict output stability and real exchange rate stabilization copyright 1989 by american economic association

spatial price discrimination with heterogeneous products product heterogeneity is introduced into the context of spatial price discrimination many of the strong properties of the standard homogeneous goods case which are attained as a limit case here are shown to be no longer valid in particular the social optimum is no longer sustainable as a market equilibrium unless products are either identical or else very different

spatial cournot competition among multi plant firms in a circular city we characterize equilibrium plant locations for a spatial multi plant cournot oligopoly in a circular city previous work demonstrates that for a two plant duopoly all four plants are equally spaced we establish that the equilibrium location pattern is unique if there are two firms with an equal number of plants in most other scenarios multiple equilibria arise next we endogenously determine both the number of plants per firm and plant locations for a duopoly it is shown that the subgame perfect nash equilibrium may not be unique and for identical set up costs the firms may choose different numbers of plants

forecasting rational expectations and the phillips curve an empirical investigation abstract the rational expectations version of the phillips curve is empirically evaluated for switzerland using a wide variety of specifications it turns out that the results are highly sensitive to measurement of both the natural rate and expectations of nominal variables no reliable phillips curve seems to exist in addition information on the relative quality of different forecasting schemes is obtained for a number of important macroeconomic variables

cointegration and exchange rate dynamics abstract we utilize systems methods of estimation which impose the unit root structure to estimate both the long run equilibrium relationship the cointegrating vector and the short run dynamics of an open economy macroeconomic model in which the exchange rate and the domestic price level are endogenously determined for the united states the model is estimated over the flexible exchange rate period and over two sub periods chosen by structural change tests on the exchange rate both rational and theories consistent expectations are utilized the models with theories consistent expectations outperform those with rational expectations

real dollar exchange rate under the bretton woods and floating exchange rate regimes abstract the focus of the paper is on real exchange rates for the dollar over the period 1957 to 1985 most such exchange rates followed an almost steplike pattern showing relatively little movement in the late 1950s and 1960s falling abruptly and then remaining low in the 1970s and finally in the 1980s rising back to levels close to those that prevailed initially contrary to much recent commentary therefore the period that appears different is not the last five years but the decade that preceded them an important factor underlying this pattern of exchange rate movement according to results presented in the paper was the behavior of monetary policy and hence inflation in the united states what remains to be established is the precise mechanism linking money and real exchange rates and the relative strength of those links

are forign exchange intervention and monetary policy related and does it really matter the relationship between foreign exchange intervention and monetary policy underlies the question of whether sterilized interventions can affect the exchange rate in this article the author examines this relationship using data on u s foreign exchange interventions from 1985 to 1990 recently made publicly available she examines whether interventions could be viewed as signaling changes in future monetary policy variables the author also considers whether changes in monetary policy may induce interventions in an effort by central bankers to lean against the wind of exchange rate movements interestingly she finds evidence both that interventions help predict monetary policy variables and that monetary variables help predict interventions copyright 1995 by university of chicago press

a model of exchange rate dynamics this model treats the exchange rate as an asset price that depends on expectations concerning exogenous real and monetary factors that will affect relative prices and absolute price levels in future periods changes in exchange rates reflect both expected changes in these exogenous factors and changes in expectations occasioned by new information the model explains the random component in exchange rate behavior the source of divergences from purchasing power parity the anticipatory response of exchange rates to future expected disturbances and the causes of exchange rate overshooting

consumer benefiting exclusive territories i investigate the effect of exclusive territories which are typical vertical controls imposed by upstream firms using shipping spatial models i consider an industry that consists of many independent local markets an upstream monopolist restricts competition between downstream firms using exclusive territories i find that exclusive territories reduce the prices of final products in all local markets in quantity setting competition in price setting competition they raise prices in half the local markets reduce them in other markets and also reduce the total consumer surplus jel classification l42 r32 a propos de territoires exclusifs qui profitent aux consommateurs l auteur analyse les effets de la regle des territoires exclusifs qui est souvent imposee comme controle vertical par les entreprises en amont a l aide de modeles spatiaux de livraison on considere le cas d une industrie composee de plusieurs marches locaux independants un monopoleur en amont reduit la concurrence entre entreprises en aval en imposant la regle des territoires exclusifs on decouvre que cette regle reduit les prix du produit final dans tous les marches locaux s il y a concurrence par les quantites s il y a concurrence par les prix la regle accroit les prix dans la moitie des marches locaux les reduit dans les autres et reduit aussi le surplus au consommateur

the dynamic relationship between the dollar and us prices an intensive empirical investigation abstract the empirical bivariate relationships between the dollar and us prices during the recent floating rate period are analyzed using time series methodology results indicate a long distributed lag from the dollar to the cpi but no relationship in the opposite direction and that a permanent 10 per cent decline in the dollar was ultimately followed by a cpi rise of 4 85 per cent similar results are obtained for various components of the cpi including services while substantially smaller price responses are reported in other studies that typically employ shorter lag structures in the context of structural econometric models

where to locate in a circular city abstract we study the location choices by cournot oligopolists in a circular market where consumers are located uniformly along the circumference we analyze the subgame perfect nash equilibria spne of a two stage location quantity game we demonstrate that the equidistant location pattern is only one of the many equilibrium location patterns that arise in a circular market nonequidistant multiple or a continuum of location equilibria may also arise both spatial agglomeration and dispersion or a combination of agglomeration and dispersion may occur in equilibrium in the case of infinitely many location equilibria we establish the welfare equivalence of the equilibrium location patterns

partial agglomeration or dispersion in spatial cournot competition 1 introductionsince the seminal work of hotelling 1929 a rich and diverse literature on spatial competition has emerged location models can be classified into two types one type is shipping or spatial price discrimination model where sellers bear transport costs the other is shopping or mill pricing model where buyers pay for transport for each type one can have either bertrand type price setting or cournot type quantity setting 1most studies on location theory use shopping mill pricing models with bertrand competition although cournot and bertrand types of non spatial models are equally popular the body of literature on spatial competition that uses cournot type models is relatively small economists have recently considered shipping models with cournot competition hamilton thisse and weskamp 1989 and anderson and neven 1991 carry out pioneering works on location models 2 they use linear city models and show that all firms agglomerate at the central point pal 1998 shows that their result is crucially dependent on the assumption of a linear city he investigates a circular city duopoly model3 and finds that an equidistant location pattern appears in equilibrium that is locational dispersion appears 4 matsushima 2001a extends pal s model to an n firm oligopoly and shows another equilibrium where half of the firms locate at one point and the other half locate at the opposite point partial agglomeration these results indicate the multiplicity of equilibria in spatial cournot models with a circular city the multiplicity of equilibria restricts the applicability of the model because the model does not give us a distinct prediction in this article we take a close look at pal 1998 and matsushima 2001a we try to solve this problem by extending their linear transport cost model to one with nonlinear transport cost 5 we consider a simplified model the numbers of firms and markets and so possible locations are four four firms choose location a b c or d see if each of the four firms chooses a different location we call this outcome pal type if two firms locate at a and the other two locate at c we call this outcome matsushima type we find that the pal type equilibrium is much more robust because i pal type equilibrium always exists as long as transport cost is increasing in distance while matsushima type equilibrium fails to exist when the transport cost function is significantly convex or concave proposition 1 ii if firms choose their locations sequentially the unique equilibrium outcome is pal type under nonlinear transport cost functions proposition 2 and iii the profit of each firm in pal type is never smaller than that in matsushima type and the former is strictly larger if the transport cost function is nonlinear proposition 3 we also compare the welfare implications of pal type and matsushima type models if the transport cost function is linear the two outcomes yield exactly the same profits consumer surplus and total social surplus however this equivalence does not hold if the transport cost function is nonlinear either convex or concave in this case pal type yields greater total social surplus and profit of each firm while matsushima type yields greater consumer surplus these results indicate that the welfare implications are sensitive to whether or not the transport cost function is linear anderson and neven 1991 show that in the linear city model a strong concavity in transport cost changes the equilibrium outcome this result is related to our results but we emphasize that our results are different from theirs first we show that both concavity and convexity of the transport cost function affect the results while in anderson and neven 1991 only strong convexity changes the result second in our propositions 2 and 3 even a slight nonlinearity changes the results

open economy macroeconomics developments in theory and policy this paper views developments in open economy macroeconomics through the lens of the debate over european monetary unification the empirical tendency for nominal exchange rate regimes to affect the variability of nominal and real exchange rates alike can be rationalized by sticky price theories or models of asset market liquidity effects but plausible liquidity models have difficulty generating enough persistence to match the data thus the macroeconomic stabilization costs of forgoing the exchange rate realignment option seem pertinent it is argued that our theories of efficiencies due to a common currency remain unsatisfactory despite recent advances the paper concludes by reviewing theories of currency crisis

can price competition dominate market segmentation this note analyses duopoly competition in a two stage location price game while allowing each firm to establish a couple of outlets both the circle and the line model of spatial competition are considered our main result is clear cut in equilibrium neither firm will take up the opportunity of opening two stores this is a warning that market segmentation i e competition from multiple outlets might not be attractive at all because it entails more intense price competition

purchasing power parity an analysis based on the evolutionary spectrum the bulk of the literature on the empirical validation of the purchasing power parity ppp has been based on cointegration although on rare occasions band spectrum analysis has also been used the former is tied down to the use of notional time in the analysis of systems away from equilibrium and the latter is circumscribed by the slutzky yule effect both these drawbacks are sought to be remedied in the present paper which seeks to bring to bear upon the ppp a new approach derived from the concept of a time varying spectrum both absolute and relative versions of the doctrine are tested for ten advanced economies over the post 1973 period uniform rejection of the ppp occurs with the us as base but with centring on the dm the evidence seems to be supportive of the ppp in its relative version for three european countries

competition of firms discriminatory pricing and location1 two costlessly mobile firms are to be located in a market region a subset of the plane the firms compete by setting locations and delivered price schedules to study this competitive stiuation an appropriate extensive form game is defined along with an appropri ate noncooperative solution concept existence and general properties of the equilibrium are demonstrated among the results are each firm increases its profit by locating so as to decrease total cost to both firms of serving the market firms will never locate coinciden tally if they have identical production costs and transport cost rates or if these are different and the firms are located in a circular market region having a uniform demand distribution this paper studies competition between two profit maximizing firms in space who are costlessly mobile and may discriminate in price we will allow the firms to set locations and delivered price schedules and we will be concerned with the existence and properties of equilibria in location and price starting with hotelling 9 the spatial competition literature has focused on location on bounded linear markets by two or more firms hotelling assumed identical firms that produced a single good with constant cost of production and considered consumers to be uniformly distributed and to have inelastic demand he also assumed that the consumers pay transport cost and purchase the good from the cheapest source hotelling claimed that a nash equilibrium in locations for the two firm market existed and yielded back to back locations at the center of the market many authors most recently d aspremont gabszewicz and thisse 2 have noted that an equilbrium in prices and location does not exist for hotelling s model however if the firms employ identical exogeneously specified prices hotelling s conclusions hold subsequent work by smithies 14 hartwick and hartwick 7 and eaton 3 claimed to show that a nash equi librium in f o b prices and locations can exist in markets with a uniform distribu tion of consumers each of whom have identical elastic demand functions for the two and three firm problems the work of d aspremont et al casts doubt on these conclusions without the adoption of restrictive conditions our work contrasts with these works and related research which has dealt with linear markets with uniform distributions of customers and with identical firms our work will involve markets that are subsets of the plane having nonuniform distributions of customers our firms will be allowed to be different that is have differences in production and transport costs however the fundamental difference in our approach is that our firms will set discriminatory prices and not price f o b in many ways our work will represent the discriminatory pricing

mixed oligopoly and spatial agglomeration abstract we investigate a mixed market where a state owned welfare maximizing public firm competes against profit maximizing private firms we use a circular city model with quantity setting competition in contrast to a pure market case discussed by pal 1998a spatial agglomeration of private firms always appears in equilibrium all private firms locate at the same point and the public firm locates at the opposite side we also find that this equilibrium pattern of the location is second best provided that output of each private firm cannot be controlled by the social planner jel classification h42 l13 oligopole mixte et agglomeration spatiale les auteurs examinent un marche mixte ou une entreprise publique possedee par l etat et cherchant a maximiser le niveau de bien etre est en concurrence avec des entreprises privees qui cherchent a maximiser leurs profits on utilise un modele de cite circulaire ou la concurrence se fait en choisissant la quantite produite en contraste avec le cas du marche parfait discute par pal 1998a l agglomeration spatiale des entreprises privees parait etre en equilibre toutes les entreprises privees se localisent au meme point et l entreprise publique se localise du cote oppose il appert que ce pattern d equilibre de localisation est un equilibre de second ordre compte tenu du fait que la production de chaque entreprise privee ne peut etre controlee par le planificateur social