the impact of survey characteristics on the measurement of food consumption abstract survey characteristics affect the quality of the measurement of food consumption within households thus it is important to identify best practices for designing surveys that collect food data this paper analyses the impact of survey characteristics on the measurement of food consumption from a sample of 81 national surveys results highlight regularities that can inform best practices in designing surveys and promoting the use of the data for multiple purposes surveys focused on food acquisition collect higher food quantities compared to those that target food consumption surveys based on recall interviews collect higher food quantities compared to those based on diaries but the difference decreases with long reference periods the use of standard units of measurement as well as the consideration of partakers in meals and of seasonality generates significant differences in the survey results the impact of the different survey characteristics carries substantive implications when food consumption data are employed for assessing food security conditions the results are part of a wider work program aimed at improving the quality of household survey data more evidence is needed ideally through coordinated sets of analyses and experiments in different contexts additionally survey characteristics must be complemented by effective field work in order to generate high quality data towards this end statistical capacity development is crucial to promote better data and more evidence based decision making

how reliable are household expenditures as a proxy for permanent income implications for the income nutrition relationship using short run expenditures from household surveys as a proxy may create attenuated estimates of the impact of permanent income on economic outcomes we use repeated observations to calculate reliability ratios and estimate errors in variables regressions of the impact of income on nutrition we find significant responses to income in contrast to previous influential studies

partisan competition growth and the franchise we present an argument for changes in the franchise in which an elite split along economic interests uses the suffrage to influence implemented policies through the influence of these policies on the character of industrialization we analyze the effects of franchise changes on economic growth we identify in the social structure of society an explanation for the connection between enfranchisement and growth when 1 there exists an economic conflict among the elite 2 landed classes are not politically strong and 3 there exists a critical mass of industrial workers we observe both growth and democratization the lack of conditions 1 or 2 resolves in stagnant autocracies while the absence of condition 3 drives growth deterring democratic expansions we provide historical support for our argument by analyzing the experience of eleven countries

the great indian calorie debate explaining rising undernourishment during india s rapid economic growth abstract the prevalence of undernourishment in india the percent of people consuming insufficient calories to meet their energy requirements has been rising steadily since the mid 1980s paradoxically this period has been one of robust poverty reduction and rapid economic growth the reasons for the apparent reductions in calorie consumption underlying increased undernourishment have been the subject of intense debate both within india and internationally this paper critically reviews this debate finding that is has taken place outside of the context of india s recent nutrition and epidemiological transitions which appear to have brought with them increased not decreased food consumption the debate has also taken place under the unchallenged assumption that the data on which the conflicting trends are based collected as part of the country s household consumption and expenditure surveys hcess are reliable the paper provides supporting literature and empirical evidence that a probable key source of the calorie decline is incomplete collection of data on food consumed away from peoples homes which is widespread and rapidly increasing complete measurement of this food source in the hcess of all developing countries is vital for accurate measurement of both undernourishment and poverty and for resolving the indian calorie debate

methods of household consumption measurement through surveys experimental results from tanzania consumption expenditure has long been the preferred measure of household living standards however accurate measurement is a challenge and household expenditure surveys vary widely across many dimensions including the level of reporting the length of the reference period and the degree of commodity detail these variations occur both across countries and also over time within countries there is little current understanding of the implications of such changes for spatially and temporally consistent measurement of household consumption and poverty a field experiment in tanzania tests eight alternative methods to measure household consumption on a sample of 4 000 households there are significant differences between consumption reported by the benchmark personal diary and other diary and recall formats under reporting is particularly relevant in illiterate households and for urban respondents completing household diaries recall modules measure lower consumption than a personal diary with larger gaps among poorer households and households with more adult members variations in reporting accuracy by household characteristics are also discussed and differences in measured poverty as a result of survey design are explored the study concludes with recommendations for methods of survey based consumption measurement in low income countries

can diaries help in improving agricultural production statistics evidence from uganda abstract although good and timely information on agricultural production is critical for policy decisions the quality of underlying data is often low and improving data quality could have high payoff we use data from a production diary administered concurrently with a standard household survey in uganda to analyze the nature and incidence of responses the magnitude of differences in reported outcomes and factors that systematically affect these despite limited central supervision diaries elicited a strong response complemented standard surveys in a number of respects and were less affected by problems of respondent fatigue than expected the diary based estimates of output value consistently exceed that from the recall based production survey in line with reported disposition implications for policy and practical administration of surveys are drawn out

decomposing response errors in food consumption measurement implications for survey design from a survey experiment in tanzania there is wide variation in how consumption is measured in household surveys both across countries and over time this variation may confound welfare comparisons in part because these alternative survey designs produce consumption estimates that are differentially influenced by contrasting types of survey response error although previous studies have documented the extent of net error in alternative survey designs little is known about the relative influence of the different response errors that underpin a survey estimate this study leverages a recent randomized food consumption survey experiment in tanzania to shed light on the relative influence of these various error types the observed deviation of measured household consumption from a benchmark is decomposed into item specific consumption incidence and consumption value so as to investigate effects related to a the omission of any consumption and then b the error in value reporting conditional on positive consumption the results show that various survey designs exhibit widely differing error decompositions and hence a simple summary comparison of the total recorded consumption across surveys will obscure specific error patterns and inhibit the lessons for improved consumption survey design in light of these findings the relative performance of common survey designs is discussed and design lessons are drawn to enhance the accuracy of item specific consumption reporting and consequently the measures of total household food consumption

generating skilled self employment in developing countries experimental evidence from uganda we study a government program in uganda designed to help the poor and unemployed become self employed artisans increase incomes and thus promote social stability young adults in uganda s conflict affected north were invited to form groups and submit grant proposals for vocational training and business start up funding was randomly assigned among screened and eligible groups treatment groups received unsupervised grants of 382 per member grant recipients invest some in skills training but most in tools and materials after four years half practice a skilled trade relative to the control group the program increases business assets by 57 work hours by 17 and earnings by 38 many also formalize their enterprises and hire labor we see no effect however on social cohesion antisocial behavior or protest effects are similar by gender but are qualitatively different for women because they begin poorer meaning the impact is larger relative to their starting point and because women s work and earnings stagnate without the program but take off with it the patterns we observe are consistent with credit constraints

growth in post soviet russia a tale of two transitions abstract in the early stages of post soviet russia s economic transition small scale entrepreneurial activity appeared to be a strong engine of growth moreover striking regional variations in initial conditions and adopted policy reforms appeared useful in accounting statistically for observed regional variations in entrepreneurial activity here we investigate whether these relationships have persisted as russia s transition has continued to evolve and find that they have not we then document that the emergence of bank issued credit virtually non existent outside of moscow prior to 2000 has been an important engine of growth since 2000 thus to date russia s post soviet development appears as a tale of two distinct transition paths

reevaluating the modernization hypothesis we revisit and critically reevaluate the widely accepted modernization hypothesis which claims that per capita income causes the creation and the consolidation of democracy existing studies find support for this hypothesis because they fail to control for the presence of omitted variables controlling for these factors either by including country fixed effects in a linear model or by including parameterized random effects in a nonlinear double hazard model removes the correlation between income and the likelihood of transitions to and from democratic regimes in addition the estimated fixed effects from the linear model are related to historical factors that affect both the level of income per capita and the likelihood of democracy in a country this evidence is consistent with the idea that events during critical historical junctures can lead to divergent political economic development paths some leading to prosperity and democracy others to relative poverty and non democracy

measuring aggregate welfare in developing countries how well do national accounts and surveys agree in a data set for developing and transition economies the author finds that private consumption per capita based on national accounts deviates on average from mean household income or expenditure based on national sample surveys growth rates also differ systematically so that the ratio of the survey mean to the national accounts mean tends to fall over time but there are revealing exceptions to these general findings the aggregate difference in the levels is due more to income surveys than to expenditure surveys and there are strong regional effects for example the severe data problems in the transition economies of eastern europe and central asia means that there is negligible correlation in that region between growth rates from national accounts and those from household surveys

investigating the significance of the data collection period of household consumption and expenditures surveys for food and nutrition policymaking analysis of the 2010 bangladesh household income and expenditure survey abstract efforts to improve the use of household income and expenditure surveys hies for nutrition policy decisions face numerous methodological issues our objective was to explore how nutrition indicators vary by data collection period number of days of household consumption data available using the 2010 bangladesh hies household availability and individual apparent consumption of nutrients foods and food groups were estimated for each of 7 consecutive 2 day recall periods both separately and in combinations representing 2 4 6 8 10 12 or 14 days of data differences among cumulative data collection periods in mean apparent nutrient consumption and proportion with low values were statistically significant but small

testing the infrequent purchases model using direct measurement of hidden consumption from food stocks survey reports of zero expenditure result from either genuine non consumption or purchases undertaken too infrequently to observe during a survey with hidden consumption from stocks infrequent purchase models rely on untested hypotheses to distinguish these types of zeros we test such models with data from an unusual survey where food stocks are measured at the start and end of the survey reference period parameter estimates using these direct measures of hidden consumption out of stocks are compared with estimates from infrequent purchase models that attempt to recover this hidden consumption the results suggest considerable bias when using the infrequent purchase models copyright 2012 oxford university press

the coevolution of economic and political development from monarchy to democracy this article establishes a unified political economy model to analyze the democratization process from monarchy to oligarchy and to democracy in the context of dynamic economic development as the predominant source of wealth evolves from land to physical capital and finally to human capital the relative economic and hence coercive power of land owners capitalists and workers shifts accordingly inducing the transition of the political system where political power is expanded from landlords to capitalists and finally to workers a smooth transition through political compromise facilitates efficient allocation of savings in physical capital followed by efficient investment in human capital

winners and losers among a refugee hosting population abstractthe impact of a sudden mass influx of forced migrants on the hosting economy is understudied and not well understood using a household panel data set for the kagera region in tanzania we test the impact of the mass refugee presence on the welfare of the local population our identification strategy exploits variations in the timing of arrival as well as the spatial distribution of rwandese and burundi refugees we find a positive and aggregate effect but households are affected differently depending on their main initial occupation

the effect of women s bargaining power on child nutrition in rural senegal summary we examine how women s bargaining power affects child nutritional status using data from rural senegal in order to correct for the potential endogeneity of women s bargaining power we use information on a mother s ethnicity relative to that of the community she resides in order to construct an arguably exogenous exclusion restriction while standard ols estimates suggest that if a mother has more bargaining power her children will have a better nutritional status our iv estimates indicate that the true impact is underestimated if the endogeneity of bargaining power is not taken into account

estimation of poverty transition matrices with noisy data summary this paper investigates measurement error biases in estimated poverty transition matrices we compare transition matrices based on survey expenditure data to transition matrices based on measurement error free simulated expenditure the simulation model uses estimates that correct for measurement error in expenditure we find that time varying measurement error in expenditure data magnifies economic mobility roughly 45 of households initially in poverty at time t 1 are found to be out of poverty at time t using data from the korean labor and income panel study when measurement error is removed this drops to between 26 and 31 of households initially in poverty copyright 2016 john wiley sons ltd

international commodity prices growth and the outbreak of civil war in sub saharan africa to learn more about the effect of economic conditions on civil war we examine whether sub saharan civil wars are more likely to start following downturns in the international price of countries main export commodities the data show a robust effect of commodity price downturns on the outbreak of civil wars we also find that sub saharan countries are more likely to see civil wars following economic downturns in their main oecd export destinations

the rise of europe atlantic trade institutional change and economic growth the rise of western europe after 1500 is due largely to growth in countries with access to the atlantic ocean and with substantial trade with the new world africa and asia via the atlantic this trade and the associatedcolonialism affected europe not only directly but also indirectly by inducing institutional change where initial political institutions those established before 1500 placed significant checks on the monarchy the growth of atlantic trade strengthened merchant groups by constraining the power of the monarchy and helped merchants obtain changes in institutions to protect property rights these changes were central to subsequent economic growth

measuring poverty in a growing world or measuring growth in a poor world the extent to which growth reduces global poverty has been disputed for 30 years although there are better data than ever before controversies are not resolved a major problem is that consumption measured from household surveys which is used to measure poverty grows less rapidly than consumption measured in national accounts in the world as a whole and in large countries particularly india china and the united states in consequence measured poverty has fallen less rapidly than appears warranted by measured growth in poor countries one plausible cause is that richer households are less likely to participate in surveys but growth in the national accounts is also upward biased and consumption in the national accounts contains large and rapidly growing items that are not consumed by the poor and not included in surveys so it is possible for consumption of the poor to grow less rapidly than national consumption without any increase in measured inequality current statistical procedures in poor

workers of the world unite franchise extensions and the threat of revolution in europe 1820 1938 abstract we test the hypothesis that the extension of the voting franchise in europe was related to the threat of revolution we contend that international diffusion of regime contention and information about revolutionary events happening in neighboring countries generate the necessary variation in the perceived threat of revolution using two samples of european countries covering the period from 1820 to 1938 we find robust evidence which is consistent with the threat of revolution hypothesis we also find some evidence that war triggered suffrage reform

returns to scale at large banks in the us a random coefficient stochastic frontier approach abstract this paper investigates the returns to scale of large banks in the us over the period 1997 2010 this investigation is performed by estimating a random coefficient stochastic distance frontier model in the spirit of tsionas 2002 and greene 2005 2008 the primary advantage of this model is that its coefficients can vary across banks thereby allowing for unobserved technology heterogeneity among large banks in the us we find that failure to consider unobserved technology heterogeneity results in a misleading ranking of banks and mismeasured returns to scale our results show that the majority of large banks in the us exhibit constant returns to scale in addition our results suggest that banks of the same size can have different levels of returns to scale and there is no clear pattern among large banks in the us concerning the relationship between asset size and returns to scale due to the presence of technology heterogeneity

societal poverty a relative and relevant measure poverty lines are typically higher in richer countries and lower in poorer ones reflecting the relative nature of national assessments of who is considered poor in many high income countries poverty lines are explicitly relative set as a share of mean or median income despite systematic variation in how countries define poverty global poverty counts are based on fixed value lines to reflect national assessments of poverty in a global headcount of poverty this paper proposes a societal poverty line the proposed societal poverty line is derived from 699 harmonized national poverty lines and has an intercept of 1 per day and a relative gradient of 50 percent of median national income or consumption the societal poverty line is more closely aligned with national definitions of poverty than other proposed relative lines by this relative measure societal poverty has fallen steadily since 1990 but at a much slower pace than absolute extreme poverty

the developing world is poorer than we thought but no less successful in the fight against poverty a new data set on national poverty lines is combined with new price data and almost 700 household surveys to estimate absolute poverty measures for the developing world we find that 25 of the population lived in poverty in 2005 as judged by what poverty typically means in the world s poorest countries this is higher than past estimates substantial overall progress is still indicated the corresponding poverty rate was 52 in 1981 but progress was very uneven across regions the trends over time and regional profile are robust to various changes in methodology though precise counts are more sensitive

economic inequality in the arab region the paper uses harmonized household survey micro data to assess the levels and determinants of economic inequality in 12 arab countries it focuses on the sources of rural urban as well as metropolitan nonmetropolitan inequalities and applies the unconditional quantile regression decomposition technique to analyze the welfare gaps across the entire distribution the analysis finds moderate inequality levels with the gini coefficient for the distribution of household real per capita total expenditures ranging between 30 7 in libya and 45 in mauritania differences in households endowments such as demographic composition human capital and community characteristics appear as the main sources of the urban rural welfare gap there is inequality between metropolitan and non metropolitan regions in many countries mainly because of differences in returns to households characteristics and particularly returns to human capital

do large banks have lower costs new estimates of returns to scale for u s banks this paper presents new fully nonparametric estimates of ray scale and expansion path scale economies for u s banks based on a model of bank costs unlike prior studies that use models with restrictive parametric assumptions or limited samples our methodology uses local polynomial estimators and data on all u s banks over the period 1984 2006 our estimates indicate that as recently as 2006 most u s banks faced increasing returns to scale suggesting that scale economies are a plausible but not necessarily only reason for the growth in average bank size and that the tendency toward increasing scale is likely to continue unless checked by government intervention

the political economy of bad data evidence from african survey and administrative statistics abstractacross multiple african countries discrepancies between administrative data and independent household surveys suggest official statistics systematically exaggerate development progress we provide evidence for two distinct explanations of these discrepancies first governments misreport to foreign donors as in the case of a results based aid programme rewarding reported vaccination rates second national governments are themselves misled by frontline service providers as in the case of primary education where official enrolment numbers diverged from survey estimates after funding shifted from user fees to per pupil government grants both syndromes highlight the need for incentive compatibility between data systems and funding rules

a new data set measuring income inequality this article presents a new data set on inequality in the distribution of income the authors explain the criteria they applied in selecting data on gini coefficients and on individual quintile groups income shares comparison of the new data set with existing compilations reveals that the data assembled here represent an improvement in quality and a significant expansion in coverage although differences in the definition of the underlying data might still affect inter temporal and international comparability based on this new data set the authors do not find a systematic link between growth and changes in aggregate inequality they do find a strong positive relationship between growth and reduction of poverty

food counts measuring food consumption and expenditures in household consumption and expenditure surveys this special issue presents new evidence on the impact of survey design choices on the quality and availability of data collected in household consumption and expenditure surveys hces the 13 studies in this issue analyze how different survey design options affect the quality of the data being collected and the implications for statistical inference and policy analysis the studies offer practical insights into survey design for national statistical offices and survey practitioners worldwide and also provide policymakers with improved tools and a better understanding of poverty food security and nutrition for effective policymaking

food prices and poverty do higher food prices help or hinder poverty reduction despite much debate existing research has almost solely relied on simulation models to address this question in this paper world bank poverty estimates are used to systematically test the relationship between changes in poverty and exogenous changes in real domestic food prices the paper uncovers indicative evidence that increases in food prices are associated with reductions in poverty not increases a likely empirical explanation is the relatively strong agricultural supply and wage responses to food price increases and the fact that the majority of the world s poor still heavily rely on agriculture or agriculture related activities to earn a living

enjoying the quiet life under deregulation evidence from adjusted lerner indices for u s banks abstract the quiet life hypothesis posits that firms with market power incur inefficiencies rather than reap monopolistic rents we propose a simple adjustment to lerner indices to account for the possibility of forgone rents to test this hypothesis for a large sample of u s commercial banks we find that adjusted lerner indices are significantly larger than conventional lerner indices and trending upward over time instrumental variable regressions reject the quiet life hypothesis for cost inefficiencies however lerner indices adjusted for profit inefficiencies reveal a quiet life among u s banks

do labor statistics depend on how and to whom the questions are asked results from a survey experiment in tanzania labor market statistics are critical for assessing and understanding economic development however widespread variation exists in how labor statistics are collected in household surveys this paper analyzes the effects of alternative survey design on employment statistics by implementing a randomized survey experiment in tanzania two features of the survey design are assessed the level of detail of the employment questions and the type of respondent it turns out that both features have relevant and statistically significant effects on employment statistics using a short labor module without screening questions induces many individuals to adopt a broad definition of employment incorrectly including domestic duties but after reclassifying those in domestic work as not working in order to obtain the correct international labor organization ilo classification the short module turns out to generate lower female employment rates higher working hours for both men and women who are employed and lower rates of wage employment than the detailed module response by proxy rather than self report has no effect on female labor statistics but yields substantially lower male employment rates mostly due to underreporting of agricultural activity the large impacts of proxy responses on male employment rates are attenuated when proxy informants are spouses and individuals with some schooling

poverty and civil war revisiting the evidence abstract previous research has interpreted the correlation between per capita income and civil war as evidence that poverty is a main determinant of conflict in this paper we find that the relationship between poverty and civil war is spurious and is accounted for by historical phenomena that jointly determine income evolution and conflict in particular the statistical association between poverty and civil wars disappears once we include country fixed effects also using cross section data for 1960 to 2000 we find that once historical variables like european settler mortality rates and the population density in 1500 are included in civil war regressions poverty does not have an effect on civil wars these results are confirmed using longer time series from 1825 to 2000

promise and pitfalls in the use of secondary data sets income inequality in oecd countries as a case study this paper examines the role of secondary data sets in empirical economic research taking the field of income distribution as a case study we illustrate problems faced by users of secondary statistics showing how both cross country comparisons and time series analysis can depend sensitively on the choice of data after describing the genealogy of secondary data sets on income inequality we consider the main methodological issues and discuss their implications for comparisons of income inequality across oecd countries and over time the lessons to be drawn for the construction and use of secondary data sets are summarized at the end of the paper

oligarchic versus democratic societies this paper develops a model to analyze economic performance under different political regimes an oligarchic society where political power is in the hands of major producers protects their property rights but also tends to erect significant entry barriers against new entrepreneurs democracy where political power is more widely diffused imposes redistributive taxes on producers but tends to avoid entry barriers when taxes in democracy are high and the distortions caused by entry barriers are low an oligarchic society achieves greater efficiency because comparative advantage in entrepreneurship shifts away from the incumbents the inefficiency created by entry barriers in oligarchy deteriorates over time the typical pattern is one of rise and decline of oligarchic societies an oligarchic society may first become richer but later fall behind a similar democratic society i also discuss how democracies may be better able to take advantage of new technologies how within elite conflict in oligarchies might cause a transition to democracy and how the unequal distribution of income may keep inefficient oligarchic institutions in place jel p16 o10

not your average job measuring farm labor in tanzania a good understanding of the constraints on agricultural growth in africa relies on the accurate measurement of smallholder labor yet serious weaknesses in these statistics persist the extent of bias in smallholder labor data is examined by conducting a randomized survey experiment among farming households in rural tanzania agricultural labor estimates obtained through weekly surveys are compared with the results of reporting in a single end of season recall survey the findings show strong evidence of recall bias people in traditional recall style modules report working up to four times as many hours per person plot relative to those reporting labor on a weekly basis if hours are aggregated to the household level however this discrepancy disappears a factor driven by the underreporting by recall households of people and plots active in agricultural work the evidence suggests that these competing forms of recall bias are driven not only by failures in memory but also by the mental burdens of reporting on highly variable agricultural work patterns to provide a typical estimate all things equal studies suffering from this bias would understate agricultural labor productivity

does high income promote democracy the authors construct a statistical model with which to test whether the regularity that democracy is more commonly found among wealthy countries stems from a democratizing effect of high income or is due entirely to other factors such as the historical context various features of the institutional setting and simultaneity with the process of leadership change even after correcting for these many other influences the democratizing effect of income remains as a statistically significant factor promoting the emergence of democratic political institutions the authors go on to find that leaders risks of losing power rise during their time in office and that these risks are higher in more democratic countries the authors confirm the finding by burkhart and lewis beck that the democracy promoting effect of income is stronger among the european countries they suggest that high income has a more powerful democratizing effect among the southern european countries because it interacts with pressure from major trading partners to democratize this suggests a revaluation of policies designed to foster the replacement of authoritarian regimes by democratic ones through free trade

the lerner index of monopoly power origins and uses abba lerner s 1934 paper in the review of economic studies is known today as the source of the lerner index of monopoly power by identifying the social loss from monopoly as the diver gence between price and marginal cost rather than the usually accepted p 161 relationship between price and average cost lerner redirected attention from the monopolist s profits to the allocative inefficiency created by the pursuit of those profits this insight is so ingrained in the mind of economists today that it is easy to over look what a significant advance it represented in a paper commemorating lerner s sixtieth birthday paul samuelson 1964 observed that while lerner s insight may seem simple i can testify that no one at chicago or harvard could tell me in 1935 exactly why p mc was a good thing p 173 lerner s reasoning about the social loss from monopoly identified the social optimum with a pareto optimal state of affairs and in the process offered what tibor scitovsky 1984 called the first clear rigorous and definitive statement of pareto optimality p 1 551 these encomia from titans of the discipline refer to a paper written when lerner was a graduate student 1 the lerner index p mc p identified the degree of monopoly with the differ ence between the firm s price and its marginal cost at the profit maximizing rate of output for lerner a bigger wedge between p and mc meant greater monopoly power a profit maximizing firm s monopoly power varied directly and only with the firm s own price elasticity of demand lerner s benchmark for measuring monopoly

should african rural development strategies depend on smallholder farms an exploration of the inverse productivity hypothesis in africa most development strategies include efforts to improve the productivity of staple crops grown on smallholder farms an underlying premise is that small farms are productive in the african context and that smallholders do not forgo economies of scale a premise supported by the often observed phenomenon that staple cereal yields decline as the scale of production increases this paper explores a research design conundrum that encourages researchers who study the relationship between productivity and scale to use surveys with a narrow geographic reach when policy would be better served with studies based on wide and heterogeneous settings using a model of endogenous technology choice the authors explore the relationship between maize yields and scale using alternative data since rich descriptions of the decision environments that farmers face are needed to identify the applied technologies that generate the data improvements in the location specificity of the data should reduce the likelihood of identification errors and biased estimates however the analysis finds that the inverse productivity hypothesis holds up well across a broad platform of data despite obvious shortcomings with some components it also finds surprising consistency in the estimated scale elasticities

impact of survey design in the estimation of habitual food consumption abstract this paper evaluates the impact of survey design on food consumption measurement using data from the mongolia household socio economic survey mses 2007 2008 we exploit the fact that the mses uses a diversified approach to collect food data by measuring consumption acquisition and stocks using both diaries and recall interviews first we estimate the effect of diary length on reporting of food consumption finding a significant decrease of reported food over time we conclude that shorter diaries would increase the quality of estimates and lower the costs of inquiry second we show that recall interviews combined with a measurement of stocks perform well in measuring household food consumption compared to diaries third we find cyclical variation in food consumption and acquisition not only between months but also within months and weeks especially for food acquisition we detect large difference within months which can lead to biased estimates of food acquisition this highlights the need for enumeration to be spread over time to overcome cyclicality on food acquisition and consumption

food insecurity in vulnerable populations coping with food price shocks in afghanistan we use the case of afghanistan during the 2007 08 food price crisis to illustrate the impact of staple food price increases on household food security using the unconditional quantile regression estimator to identify separate effects for households across the distribution we find evidence of divergent behavior the most vulnerable households with low calorie diets cannot afford to make substantial cuts to caloric intake since they are close to or below the minimum daily energy requirements accordingly we find no decline in per capita daily caloric intake as a result of the price increases such households may be sacrificing diet quality to maintain calories with a potential for serious and long term health consequences households with high calorie diets who can afford to cut back on calories experience the largest declines we find evidence of declines in dietary diversity across the entire distribution of households with slightly larger declines observed for those with the least diversity moving beyond the price responses for the average household can inform policy makers of how the most vulnerable groups are affected such information is particularly salient in a country like afghanistan where decades of war political instability and recurring droughts have led to a precarious state of food insecurity and poverty

determinants of democracy a panel study of over 100 countries from 1960 to 1995 finds that improvements in the standard of living predict increase in democracy as measured by a subjective indicator of electoral rights the propensity for democracy rises with per capita gdp primary schooling and a smaller gap between male and female primary attainment for a given standard of living democaracy tends to fall with urbnization and with a greater reliance on natrual resources democracy has little relation to country size but rises with the middle class share of income the apparently strong relation of democracy to colonial heritage mostly disappears when the economic variables are held constant similarly the allowance for these economic variables weakens the interplay between democracy and religious affiliation however negative effects from muslim and non religious affiliations remain intact

measuring banks market power in the presence of economies of scale a scale corrected lerner index abstract a positive lerner index indicates a welfare loss for consumers due to deviations from marginal cost pricing such a welfare loss may not always be due to market power though in particular marginal cost pricing would result in negative profit for the firm in the presence of economies of scale in such a scenario a positive lerner index could simply reflect the firm s need to earn non negative profits rather than market power we propose a novel scale corrected price cost margin for firms that produce in the economies of scale range we show that this measure is more informative about market power than the lerner index itself as an empirical illustration we analyze market power in the u s banking sector using both the corrected and uncorrected lerner index the corrected lerner index reveals significant market power for u s commercial banks during the 2000 2014 period

from education to democracy the conventional wisdom views high levels of education as a prerequisite for democracy this paper shows that existing evidence for this view is based on crosssectional correlations which disappear once we look at within country variation in other words there is no evidence that countries that increase their education are more likely to become democratic

measuring multi product banks market power using the lerner index abstract the aggregate lerner index is a popular composite measure of multi product banks market power based on total assets as the single aggregate output factor we show that the aggregate lerner index only qualifies as a consistently aggregated lerner index if three conditions hold under these conditions the aggregate lerner index reduces to a weighted average of the product specific lerner indices we test the three conditions for a sample of u s banks covering the years 2011 2017 all three conditions are rejected and we show that they may cause an economically relevant bias to the aggregate lerner index depending on the economic context as a general solution we propose using the always consistently aggregated weighted average lerner index whenever a composite lerner index is needed

issues in measuring and modeling poverty economists have relied heavily on household incomes or expenditures normalized for differences in household specific prices and demographics in their research and policy advice related to poverty and inequality recognizing the conceptual and empirical problems that confound such measures does not mean that they should be ignored instead it indicates the need for supplementary measures to capture the missing items implementing a genuinely multidimensional approach will often make the welfare rankings of social states more difficult but that fact points to the nonrobustness of low dimensional rankings this may have its own policy ramifications with the possibility of correspondence between policy instruments and welfare objectives the model types used to understand the poverty and inequity determination processes will be affected not only will there be more dependent variables to consider but variables will have potentially complex relationships these relationships will often be hard to empirically disentangle despite richer integrated and longitudinal data sets such data open rich and relevant agenda for research into the dynamics of poverty along multiple dimensions a simultaneous attack on these issues from all three fronts measurement modeling and data offers hope of establishing a credible empirical foundation for public action in fighting poverty

why did the west extend the franchise democracy inequality and growth in historical perspective during the nineteenth century most western societies extended voting rights a decision that led to unprecedented redistributive programs we argue that these political reforms can be viewed as strategic decisions by the political elite to prevent widespread social unrest and revolution political transition rather than redistribution under existing political institutions occurs because current transfers do not ensure future transfers while the extension of the franchise changes future political equilibria and acts as a commitment to redistribution our theory also offers a novel explanation for the kuznets curve in many western economies during this period with the fall in inequality following redistribution due to democratization i introduction the nineteenth century was a period of fundamental political reform and unprecedented changes in taxation and redistribution britain for example was transformed from an oligarchy run by an elite to a democracy the franchise was extended in 1832 and then again in 1867 and 1884 transferring voting rights to portions of the society with no previous political representation the decades after the political reforms witnessed radical social reforms increased taxation and the extension of education to the masses moreover as noted by kuznets inequality which was previously increasing started to decline during this period the gini coefficient for income inequality in england and wales had risen from 0 400 in 1823 to 0 627 in 1871 but fell to 0 443 in 1901 two key factors in the reduction in inequality were the increase in the proportion of skilled workers williamson 1985 and the redistribution of income toward the poorer segments of the society for example taxes rose from 8 12 percent of national product in 1867 to 18 8 percent by 1927 and the progressivity of the tax system increased substantially see lindert 1989

you are what and where you eat capturing food away from home in welfare measures consumption of food away from home is rapidly growing across the developing world surprisingly the majority of household surveys around the world haven not kept up with its pace and still collect limited information on it the implications for poverty and inequality measurement are far from clear and the direction of the impact cannot be established a priori since consumption of food away from home affects both food consumption and the poverty line this paper exploits rich data on food away from home collected as part of the national household survey in peru shedding light to the extent to which welfare measures differ depending on whether they properly account for food away from home peru is a relevant context with the average peruvian household spending 28 percent of their food budget on food away from home by 2010 the analysis indicates that failure to account for the consumption of food away from home has important implications for poverty and inequality measures as well as the understanding of who the poor are first accounting for food away from home results in extreme poverty rates that are 18 percent higher and moderate poverty rates that are 16 percent lower these results are also consistent in fact more pronounced with poverty gap and severity measures second consumption inequality measured by the gini coefficient decreases by 1 3 points when food away from home is included a significant reduction finally inclusion of food away from home results in a reclassification of households from poor to non poor status and vice versa 20 percent of the poor are different when the analysis includes consumption of food away from home this effect is large enough that a standard poverty profile analysis results in significant differences between the poverty classification based on whether food away from home is included or not the differences cover many dimensions including demographics education and labor market characteristics taken together the results indicate that a serious rethinking of how to deal with the consumption of food away from home in measuring well being is urgently needed to properly estimate and understand poverty around the world

beyond the field the impact of farmer field schools on food security and poverty alleviation summary we estimate the impact of a farmer field school intervention among small scale farmers in northern tanzania on two main development objectives food security and poverty we employ a series of evaluation methodologies including a quasi difference in difference setup to account for potential selection into the project despite lack of baseline data we find strong positive effects on food security but no effect on poverty investigating possible mechanisms for this result shows that reallocation of labor resources toward own agricultural production and improved production smoothing may have led to improved food security while poverty remained unaffected

does free public health care increase utilization and reduce spending heterogeneity and long term effects zambia removed user fees in publicly supported government and faith based health facilities in 54 out of 72 districts in 2006 this was extended to rural areas of previously unaffected districts in 2007 the natural experiment provided by the step wise implementation of the removal policy and five waves of nationally representative household survey data enables us to study the impact of the removal policy on utilization and household health expenditure we find that the policy increased overall use of health services in the short term and the effects were sustained in the long term the increases were higher for individuals whose household heads were unemployed or had no or less education the policy also led to a small shift in care seeking from private to publicly supported facilities an effect driven primarily by individuals whose household heads were either formally employed or engaged in farming the likelihood of incurring any spending reduced although this weakened slightly in the long term at the same time there was an upward pressure on conditional health expenditure i e expenditure was higher after removal of fees for those who incurred any spending hence total unconditional household health expenditure was not significantly affected

agricultural technology adoption and household welfare measurement and evidence abstract previous studies on the adoption and impacts of improved crop varieties have relied on self reported adoption status of the surveyed households however in the presence of weak variety maintenance and poorly functioning seed certification system measurement errors in self reported adoption status can be considerable this paper investigates how such measurement errors can lead to biased welfare estimates using dna fingerprinting based varietal identification as a benchmark we find that misclassification in self reported adoption status is considerable with significant false negative and positive response rates we empirically show that such measurement errors lead to welfare estimates that are biased towards zero and substantially understate the poverty reduction effects of adoption while the empirical evidence suggests attenuation bias our theoretical exposition and simulations demonstrate that upward bias and sign reversal effects are also possible the results point to the need for improved monitoring of the diffusion process of improved varieties through innovative adoption data collection approaches to generate robust evidence for prioritizing and justifying investments in agricultural research and extension

bank competition and financial stability in asia pacific the impact of bank competition on financial stability has been a focus of academic and policy debate over the last two decades and particularly since the 2007 08 global financial crises beck 2008 oecd 2011 under the traditional competition fragility view banks cannot earn monopoly rents in competitive markets and this results in lower profits capital ratios and charter values this makes banks less able to withstand demand or supply side shocks and encourages excessive risk taking marcus 1984 alternatively the competition stability view suggests that competition leads to greater stability a less competitive banking market may lead to more risk taking if the big banks are deemed too important to fail and as such obtain implicit or explicit subsidies via government safety nets mishkin 1999 in addition banks with more market power tend to charge higher loan rates which may induce borrowers to assume greater risk leading to greater default in competitive banking markets loan rates are lower too big to fail issues and safety net subsidies are smaller and this results in a positive link between bank competition and stability boyd and de nicolo 2005 it could also be the case as noted by martinez miera and repullo 2010 that bank competition and stability are linked in a non linear manner and in a similar vein berger et al 2009 argue that competition and concentration may coexist and can simultaneously induce stability or fragility

how to get the snowball rolling and extend the franchise voting on the great reform act of 1832 this paper suggests a new approach to analyzing the causes of franchise extension based on a new dataset it provides a detailed econometric study of the great reform act of 1832 in the united kingdom the analysis yields four main results first modernization theory receives limited support second the reform enjoyed some measure of popular support third the threat of revolution had an asymmetric impact on the voting behavior of the pro reform whigs and the anti reform tories while the threat might have convinced reluctant reformers among the whig politicians and among their patrons to support the bill it seems to have hardened the resistance to reform among the tories fourth ideology played a critical role nevertheless it also appears that self interest and political expedience explained the votes of many members of parliament

self enforcing democracy author s fearon james abstract if democracy is to have any of the good effects said to justify it it must be self enforcing those who control the government must want to hold regular competitive elections for the highest offices and all parties must be willing to comply with the results i consider a model in which citizens can always protest or rebel against the current ruler but can unseat the ruler only if enough people rebel when individuals privately observe a signal of the government s performance e g their own welfare they face a difficult problem of how to coordinate to pose a credible threat of rebellion necessary to keep the ruler from stealing further if the signals are noisy inefficient rebellions must occur in equilibrium to keep the ruler honest allowing for the possibility of elections makes for equilibria that eliminate both problems the convention of holding elections at particular times provides a public signal for coordinating rebellion in the event that elections are suspended of blatantly rigged the electoral results themselves aggregate private information about the ruler s performance providing the ruler an incentive to stick to the terms int he case of noisy signals of government performance the electoral results act as a cheap talk signal that allows the public to commit to rebel if a losing ruler does not step down avoiding the need for costly rebellions these arguments pose an explanation for self enforcing democracy whereas the several models in the literature do not because they do not explain why anyone would want to use elections to allocate power

hicksian separability does not hold over space implications for the design of household surveys and price questionnaires abstract if relative prices of goods within a commodity group are constant hicksian separability lets the price of a single good represent the group price level this is relied on by price questionnaires used with household surveys in developing countries and when constructing temporal and spatial deflators methods of estimating demand systems from household survey data also rely on hicksian separability yet this restriction remains untested in cross sections we use unique data from vietnam with multiple specifications from within the same food groups to test if within group relative prices are constant over space the data firmly reject these restrictions some guidelines for survey design are discussed in terms of the characteristics of commodity groups that should be disaggregated and those that should have more elementary goods added to their linked price questionnaire

when the data source writes the conclusion evaluating agricultural policies statistics describe realities but they also shape them since they are used to design or support policies as such accurate statistics are important using the agricultural sector in rwanda as a case study we demonstrate that dubious statistics can spread quickly according to data from the food and agricultural organization fao yields have increased by 60 per cent since the implementation of large scale agricultural reforms while other datasets point towards more modest gains yet estimates in line with those of the fao dominate the official discourse we suggest that the discrepancies between datasets may be explained by the difficulties of collecting accurate agricultural statistics combined with an incentive to overestimate yields to show that the reforms have worked

income and democracy existing studies establish a strong cross country correlation between income and democracy but do not control for factors that simultaneously affect both variables we show that controlling for such factors by including country fixed effects removes the statistical association between income per capita and vari ous measures of democracy we present instrumental variables estimates that also show no causal effect of income on democracy the cross country corre lation between income and democracy reflects a positive correlation between changes in income and democracy over the past 500 years this pattern is con sistent with the idea that societies embarked on divergent political economic development paths at certain critical junctures jel d7 e 1

inequality poverty and the intra household allocation of consumption in senegal intra household inequalities have long been a source of concern for policy design but there is very little evidence the current practice of ignoring inequality within households could lead to an underestimation of both overall inequality and poverty levels as well as to the misclassification of some individuals as regards to their poverty status using a novel survey for senegal in which consumption data were collected at a disaggregated level this paper quantifies these various effects in total two opposing effects one on mean and one on inequality compensate each other in terms of the overall poverty rate but individual poverty statuses are affected intra household consumption inequalities accounts for 14 percent of inequality in senegal the authors uncover the fact that household structure and organization are key correlates of intra household inequality and individual risk of poverty

efficiency technical change and returns to scale in large us banks panel data evidence from an output distance function satisfying theoretical regularity abstract this paper provides parametric estimates of technical change efficiency change economies of scale and total factor productivity growth for large banks those with assets in excess of 1 billion in the united states over the period from 2000 to 2005 this is done by estimating an output distance function subject to theoretical regularity within a bayesian framework we find that failure to incorporate theoretical regularity conditions results in mismeasured shadow revenue and or cost shares which in turn leads to perverse conclusions regarding productivity growth our results from the regularity constrained model show that total factor productivity of the large us banks grew at an average rate of 1 98 over the sample period however our estimates also show a clear downward trend in the growth rate of total factor productivity and our decomposition of the primal divisia total factor productivity growth index into its three components technical change efficiency change and economies of scale indicates that technical change is the driving force behind this decline

the impact of household food consumption data collection methods on poverty and inequality measures in niger this paper assesses the impact of three methodologies of food data collection on the welfare distribution and poverty and inequality measures in niger the first methodology is a 7 day recall period the second one is a usual month and the third one is a 7 day diary the paper finds that there is a difference in the distribution of welfare between on the one hand the two first methodologies 7 day recall and a usual month which give results close to each other and on the other hand the 7 day diary method when considering annual per capita consumption the 7 day diary lags the 7 day recall by 28 percent this gap is not only at the mean of the distribution it has been found at any level these differences lead to differences in poverty and inequality measures even when alternate poverty lines are used this study underscores the problem that many developing countries face when it comes to monitoring poverty indicators over time where different methodologies have been used over the years