the housing market impacts of shale gas development using data from pennsylvania and an array of empirical techniques to control for confounding factors we recover hedonic estimates of property value impacts from nearby shale gas development that vary with water source well productivity and visibility results indicate large negative impacts on nearby groundwater dependent homes while piped water dependent homes exhibit smaller positive impacts suggesting benefits from lease payments results have implications for the debate over regulation of shale gas development jel l71 q35 q53 r31 technological improvements in the extraction of oil and natural gas from unconventional sources have transformed communities and landscapes and brought debate and controversy in the policy arena shale gas plays underlying the populated northeastern united states were thought to be uneconomical less than ten years ago but now contribute a major share of us gas supply 1 natural gas has been hailed as a bridge to energy independence and a clean future because of its domestic sourcing and compared with coal and petroleum derivatives its smaller carbon footprint and reduced emissions of other pollutants e g particulates sulfur dioxide car

an engineering economic approach to estimating the price elasticity of residential electricity demand abstract this paper develops separate methods for projecting short and long run electricity demand the short run econometric analysis accounts explicitly for weather sensitive appliances and distinguishes these from non weather sensitive appliances the long run analysis combines the econometric approach with an engineering accounting approach unlike pure econometric approaches it is able to identify the effect of sharp price increases on electricity demand it treats total price elasticity as the sum of a utilization elasticity and a long run stock adjustment using utility specific data we obtain elasticity estimates at the low end of the range of previous estimates

the demand for energy cross country evidence using the florida model abstract income and own price elasticities of demand for energy for 51 countries in 1980 are presented based on pooled estimates from an 11 good demand system estimated with the florida model results indicate income elasticities of demand for energy are significantly larger than unitary for all countries and own price elasticities of demand for energy range between 0 8 and 1 0

a panel cointegration analysis of the demand for oil in the middle east this article applies recently developed panel unit root and panel cointegration techniques to estimate the long run income and price elasticities for oil in the middle east the results for the panel indicate that demand for oil is highly price inelastic and slightly income elastic in the middle east there is considerable variation in the results for the income variable across countries with the coefficient on the income variable statistically insignificant for several countries the coefficient on the price variable is statistically significant in all cases with the expected sign and the price elasticity is uniformly low while the results for the income variable differ across countries the results for the panel as a whole suggest that the demand for oil in the middle east is being driven largely by strong economic growth while consumers are largely insensitive to price changes

tax exporting regional economic growth and welfare abstract long run exporting and importing of regional taxes is assessed theoretically and empirically using a six region nonlinear general equilibrium model of the united states the relationships between tax exporting and three aggregate measures of regional change value added welfare of all residents and welfare of original residents only are examined empirically the ability of states to adopt tax structures that successfully impose more of a burden on out of state residents does not necessarily promote regional economic growth or welfare and evaluating tax policy based on its ability to promote economic growth may be misleading if regional welfare is the primary objective

the demand for energy evidence from a cross country demand system abstract some new evidence on the income own price elasticities of demand for energy consumption by consumers is presented estimates are derived from a complete system of cross country demand equations with energy being one of the commodities considered

household production and the short and long run demand for electricity this paper deals with the residential demand for electricity a theoretical model is formulated which is based on intertemporal optimization in a household production context the model is estimated using a dynamic version of the pls partial least squares approach most important determinants of electricity consumption are the prices of appliances and of those goods which can either be purchased in the market or produced at home the dynamic interrelationship between capital stock and electricity consumption is also an important element of the estimated model

short run energy economy interactions in egypt abstract this paper discusses the short run adjustment mechanism of the egyptian economy to changes in the domestic price of oil the effects of oil price increases have been analysed in the framework of a short run macroeconomic model with an explicit treatment of energy the results suggest that a reduction in petroleum use induced by a rise in the price of oil will impose difficult adjustment problems for the economy in the short run in terms of increase in inflation fall in the share of wage income and sharp output losses the analysis also indicates that energy demand management through appropriate petroleum pricing strategy cannot bring about desirable impacts on the economy unless efforts are made to reduce cost pressures originating from other energy sectors

separability functional form and regulatory policy in models of interfuel substitution abstract counter intuitive results such as positive own price elasticities have been found in some studies of interfuel substitution this paper examines three possible reasons for this problem first including energy materials in petroleum and coal aggregates is found to contribute to incorrect signs second the mathematical properties of the translog function contribute to concavity violations in contrast the linear logit model of cost shares is found to provide more sensible estimates of own price elasticities across alternative model specifications finally natural gas curtailment policies and environmental regulations are found to be significant factors influencing us industrial fuel demand although omission of these factors does not directly contribute to curvature violations

time series analysis applied to construct us natural gas price functions for groups of states the study of natural gas markets took a considerably new direction after the liberalization of the natural gas markets during the early 1990s as a result several problems and research opportunities arose for those studying the natural gas supply chain particularly the marketing operations consequently various studies have been undertaken about the econometrics of natural gas several models have been developed and used for different purposes from descriptive analysis to practical applications such as price and consumption forecasting in this work we address the problem of finding a pooled regression formula relating the monthly figures of price and consumption volumes for each state of the united states during the last twenty years the model thus obtained is used as the basis for the development of two methods aimed at classifying the states into groups sharing a similar price consumption relationship a dendrogram application and an heuristic algorithm the details and further applications of these grouping techniques are discussed along with the ultimate purpose of using this pooled regression model to validate data employed in the stochastic optimization problem studied by the authors

regional variations in us consumer response to price changes in home heating fuels the northeast and the south 1987 regional variations in us consumer response to price changes in home heating fuels the northeast and the south applied economics vol 19 no 9 pp 1261 1268

a model of residential demand for electricity using a national household sample abstract using a three equation model demand price appliance stock index and a current national household data set this study develops partial and total elasticity estimates for the usa partial elasticities are 0 102 for income and 0 193 for price while total elasticities are 0 410 for income and 1 403 for price

natural gas price elasticities variations by region and by sector in the usa abstract this article s primary objective is to estimate the own price and cross price elasticities of demand for natural gas in the residential commercial and industrial sectors by doe region in the usa a simultaneous equations model was developed and its reduced form was employed for natural gas consumption demand elasticity estimation in conjuction with the instrumental price variables data from 1967 to 1978 were used in the estimation but the 1973 oil embargo effect was separated with the use of a dummy variable the demand for natural gas was much more price elastic in the long run than in the short run and the industrial sector was more less price sensitive than others however there were significant interregional and intersectoral variations among the elasticities estimated

income and price elasticities of energy consumption in egypt a time series analysis abstract the purpose of this paper is to provide empirical estimates of the price and income elasticities of energy consumption in egypt it fills an important gap since policy discussion of energy pricing issues has so far been based more on assumptions than on hard evidence the paper shows that the real relative price of energy has been falling steadily since 1972 while per capita energy consumption rose some 50 over the decade 1972 81 evidence produced in this exercise indicates quite clearly that price and income elasticities of energy consumption are significantly much lower than was generally believed

on the demand for natural gas in urban china abstract using a set of unbalanced panel data for chinese s cities during the period of 2006 2009 this study aims to estimate the price and income elasticities of residential demand for natural gas natural gas consumption is specified as a function of its own price substitute prices urban wages and other supply climate and housing characteristics using a feasible generalised least squares fgls technique which controls for panel heteroskedasticity and panel correlation we find that natural gas consumption is price elastic and income inelastic when other covariates e g the supply of natural gas pipeline and heating degree days are controlled in addition there are large variations in demand behaviours across china s regions there is a substantial income effect on demand for natural gas in southern china whereas the northern regions are found to have a higher price effect in addition the substitution effect between coal and natural gas is significant in north china but is not significant in south china these findings have several important policy implications for natural gas pricing and supply cost analysis in the context of china

public regulations and the slowdown in productivity growth a time series regression model of the us manufacturing sector is developed to estimate the direct and indirect relationships of public regulations and productivity for the 1973 to 1977 period preliminary results show that 12 to 21 of the productivity slowdown is blamed on regulation other contributing factors are a reduced non labor to labor input 15 average cyclical impact 0 to 15 and a combination of changes in labor composition expenses for research and development and shifts in sectoral output the study focuses on measured productivity and the results have little implication to true productivity growth 14 references 24 tables dck

the sources of labor productivity variation in u s manufacturing 1947 80 the determinants of measured labor productivity hereafter simply productivity have been the subject of many recent papers denison s survey 1979b for example cites dozens of relevant studies despite the volume of research however there remain broad areas of disagreement about the sources of productivity change one reason for the disagreements has been the tendency of researchers to concentrate on the identification and explanation of long run productivity trends as opposed to shorter run changes this emphasis on long run trends is a natural response to policy concerns about possible secular declines in productivity and growth unfortunately trends and trend breaks are notoriously difficult to identify with any confidence furthermore when the interval of observation is say a decade instead of a year or a quarter there are fewer effective data points to use in discriminating between competing explanations thus many empirical questions of importance have remained unresolved a second source of disagreement is that very little of the recent research is based on completely specified structural models of productivity change for example the popular method of growth accounting is usually either totally non structural or derived from production function considerations alone although they may be descriptively useful methods which exclude elements such as factor supply and the demand for final output have limited capacity to distinguish between different hypotheses about the causes of changes in productivity 2 the present paper takes a different and rather experimental approach to studying the determinants of productivity first it puts aside for the time being the attempt to explain long run trends in productivity concentrating instead on the other half of productivity change that is on the variations in productivity levels around the long run trend these shorter term specifically annual changes are interesting economic phenomena worth studying for themselves moreover understanding these variations would seem to be a useful preliminary step toward an eventual explanation of long term trends a second feature of our research is that it is based on a complete although very simple model of productivity variation as suggested above this should be a more useful approach if one wants to examine causal relationships or to make policy recommendations use of a complete model also permits relevant information to be extracted from auxiliary variables such as wages and prices a barrier to structural analysis of productivity change is that many of the key exogenous variables which affect productivity e g technological progress the determinants of product demand or labor supply the costs of non labor inputs may be quite difficult to measure 3 a contribution of this paper is the application to this problem of an econometric approach which allows exogenous factors to be treated as unobservables but which still permits the identification of structural parameters the basic idea is to use the structural relationship of observed endogenous variables to the unobserved exogenous variables as a means of placing restrictions on the variance covariance matrix of the observed variables a maximum likelireceived for publication july 21 1981 revision accepted for publication august 16 1982 stanford university the author would like to thank r e hall and anonymous referees for helpful comments research support was provided by the national science foundation growth accounting was introduced by denison 1974 but is used by others e g kendrick 1979 and norsworthyharper kunze 1979 many other productivity studies bear conceptual similarities to growth accounting see for example jorgenson griliches 1967 or nadiri 1980 2 methods based on incomplete models are also of limited use in the making of policy see baily 1981 for an example of the dangers of drawing policy conclusions from simple correlations of productivity and capital growth 3this in itself has been a major factor behind the lack of consensus on productivity

china s natural gas consumption and subsidies from a sector perspective newhuadu business school research fund china sustainable energy program g 1305 18257 national social science foundation of china 12zd059 ministry of education 10gbj013

structural changes in residential energy demand abstract residential energy consumers in the usa faced several demand shocks in the 1970s and 1980s these included price rises engineered by the organization of petroleum exporting countries natural gas curtailments shortages of petroleum products and deregulation of energy markets one result of these events has been structural change in the demand for electricity and petroleum by residential consumers demand functions are now more responsive to price changes and consumers react more quickly in adjusting their capital stocks to new levels

profit rent and the terms of trade a rejoinder abstract in response to my article in this issue gibson and mcleod argue that by ignoring a viability condition i incorrectly conclude that a positive profit rate is not necessary for the perverse profit response furthermore they argue that a positive profit rate not the technology parameters is the profoundly important social determinant of their original result it is shown here that the imposition of the viability condition does not contradict my conclusion the relevance ascribed by gibson and mcleod to their positive profit rate condition is disputed and an unexpected relationship between rural wages and profit rates is uncovered technology is again shown to be the modulator of the distributional struggle finally the empirical evidence presented by gibson and mcleod in support of a fixed profit equilibrium trap for u s agriculture is examined and its relevance questioned

price sensitivity of residential energy consumption in norway abstract the main aim of this paper is to test the stability of the results of a model which focus on the relationship between the choice of heating equipment and the residential energy consumption the results for the income and energy price variables are of special interest stability in the time dimension is tested by applying the model on micro data for each of the years 1993 1995 the parameter estimates are stable within a 95 confidence interval however the estimated impact of the energy price variable on energy consumption was considerably weaker in 1994 than in 1993 and 1995 the results for two different income groups in the pooled data set are also subject to stability testing the energy price sensitivity in residential energy consumption is found to be higher for high income households than for low income households

lifeline electricity rates as an income transfer device the lifeline electricity rates are presumed to be inefficient because they violate optimal pricing principles but they may also be an ineffective and inequitable way to transfer assistance to low income households evidence is presented to challenge the assumption that simple demand changes will permit high consuming households to subsidize low income users social security food stamps and other social programs are better alternatives to a general income transfer 7 references 2 tables dck

nash profit efficiency a measure of changes in market structures abstract imperfectly competitive markets can be characterized by endogenous prices limited or no competition and the exercise of market power to address the resulting dysfunctionality this study proposes an alternative efficiency measure estimated by the directional distance function ddf with the direction toward nash equilibrium and develops the nash profit efficiency npe and its decomposition which complements the typical profit efficiency measure we model the production possibility set and the price functions of inputs and outputs and then develop the mixed complementarity problem micp we validate the model with an empirical study of the oil and natural gas industry in new york state between 1981 and 1989 the results show that before 1984 firms exploited a less competitive market that between 1984 and 1986 the number of new entrants transformed the market and that after 1986 no firms could exercise market power due to market restructuring deregulation and an unforeseen oil glut based on the results we conclude that the direction toward nash equilibrium can be justified for efficiency estimation in imperfectly competitive markets and that npe is appropriate for investigating changes in market structures

a dynamic analysis of interfuel substitution in u s industrial energy demand using data for 1960 92 to analyze interfuel substitution in the u s industrial sector a dynamic linear logit model is shown to provide superior global properties than a comparable dynamic translog model confirming earlier static results by t j considine 1989 the linear logit model provides a direct unbiased estimate of the rate of dynamic adjustment indicating a median response lag of less than two years excluding fuels used for nonenergy purposes yields larger estimates of the price elasticities for coal and oil and indicates generally greater potential for interfuel substitution than when using aggregate data

socioeconomic development and electricity consumption a cross country analysis using the random coefficient method this paper analyses the relationship between electricity consumption and socioeconomic variables by estimating the electricity consumption function on the basis of single year cross country data and using ols and random coefficient rc methods the latter method yields both mean response as well as country specific coefficients while electricity consumption is found to rise with socioeconomic development it is found to be inelastic with respect to changes in all the variables the estimated country specific coefficients with respect to per capita gnp and share of industry in gdp are found not to vary across countries indicating that the impact of these variables on electricity consumption is similar across countries on the other hand the impact of other variables years of schooling gdp growth urbanization and population density is found to vary substantially across countries

determinants of residential space heating expenditures in germany abstract we first examine the determinants of household expenditures on space heating and hot water supply in germany a number of socio economic characteristics of households are included along with building characteristics our analysis covers information on more than 12 000 households in germany for the years 1998 and 2003 the analysis continues by investigating whether different kinds of households are affected differently by increases in energy prices households in owner occupied properties are less affected compared to those in rented accommodation this could be because owners are more likely to have installed energy efficient heating and hot water supply systems and landlords have less of an incentive to improve the conditions of their rented accommodations an energy policy targeting especially the latter group might benefit not only households in rented accommodation but might also increase energy efficiency and reduce greenhouse gas emissions as well

unconventional energy taxation and interstate welfare an analysis of pennsylvania s severance tax policy abstract natural gas production from unconventional sources has increased over the past decade a significant portion of this increase has come from output in the marcellus region of pennsylvania this output has altered gas markets and repositioned pennsylvania as a major gas exporter it has also put pennsylvania at odds with other states as it is one of a few without a formal severance tax on extractive resources in this paper we combine results from a structural demand model with a two sector trade model to analyze the interstate welfare impacts of pennsylvania s current severance tax proposal our results demonstrate that most of the welfare losses from this proposed policy are likely to be shifted to residents in other states we also demonstrate how fluctuations in gas prices can substantially reduce tax revenue these findings have important implications for both pennsylvania and u s energy policy given the significant rise in energy production from new sources throughout the u s

taxation depletion and welfare a simulation study of the u s petroleum resource abstract exhaustible resources in the united states are subject to taxes on property value production and corporate income as applied in practice each tax can cause high grading the elimination of incentives to explore develop and produce marginal resources and each can tilt the time path of production toward the present or the future the potential for such tax induced distortions has been shown in the theoretical literature due to the dynamic nature of resource exploitation and the resulting complexity of models developed to study it however purely theoretical exercises have been unable to provide detailed results of a sort that could help guide tax policy the present paper develops a simulation model of the u s petroleum resource and uses it to study the effects of taxation on exploration and production the model is partial equilibrium in scope and views the industry as a present value maximizing representative firm given expectations on the future time path of price and a function that relates reserve additions to exploratory effort the industry chooses time paths for exploration and production parameters of relevant functions are estimated with data for u s petroleum operations in the onshore region of the lower 48 states the simulated outcomes indicate that property and production severance taxes cause substantial deadweight losses a tax on corporate income from extraction imposes a very small deadweight loss and the property tax significantly biases utilization of the resource away from the future and toward the present

energy price shocks and productivity growth in us and uk manufacturing because sustained changes in the trend of productivity growth are so very important for people s long run economic welfare the dramatic productivity growth slowdown of the 1970 s and early 1980 s has been the focus of much analysis and discussion for some observers it was much more than coincidence that the oil price shocks of 1973 74 accompanied the sharp slowdowns in traditionally measured productivity growth not only in the united states and the united kingdom but throughout the industrialised world however establishing quantifying and explaining sig nificant linkages between energy price shocks and productivity growth has proved to be most difficult traditional and time honoured relationships involving productivity growth have all seemed incapable of explaining this slowdown for example edward denison author of several widely cited productivity studies has concluded that energy had essentially no role in explaining the productivity growth slowdown and that moreover what happened is to be blunt a mystery 1979 p 4

the sensitivity of consumption of oil products to price changes an econometric investigation abstract this paper presents a small econometric model of the supply and demand of motor spirit diesel fuel oil and other gas diesel oil by modelling at this level of disaggregation it is possible to identify the dynamic structure of each market and estimate own price and cross price elasticities

imposing local concavity in the translog and generalized leontief cost functions abstract we propose and illustrate a method for imposing concavity at a single point which may result in concavity at many points in the familiar translog and generalized leontief cost functions while at the same time maintaining flexibility of the forms

terms of trade policy in a model with non produced means of production abstract terms of trade policies between agriculture and industry are analysed in a two sector sraffian model if both sectors use only produced means of production and labor it can be shown that an improvement in agriculture s terms of trade always leads to higher profits in agriculture however when non produced means of production are introduced an exogenous increase in the relative price of agricultural commodities may cause the rate of profit in agriculture to increase remain constant or even decrease two preconditions are identified for the case in which a favorable movement in agriculture s terms of trade decreases that sector s profit rate first at least one quality of competitively priced land must be scarce relative to the total output required second the initial economy wide rate of profit must be positive finally the effect of an input subsidy used in conjunction with terms of trade policy is considered it is shown that under certain conditions reducing the price of production inputs can also cause profits to fall and rents to rise in agriculture

fossil fuel producing economies have greater potential for industrial interfuel substitution abstract this study analyzes industrial interfuel substitution in an international context using a large unbalanced panel dataset of 63 countries we find that compared to other countries fossil fuel producing economies have higher short term interfuel substitution elasticities this difference increases further in the long run as fossil fuel producing countries have a considerably longer adjustment of their fuel using capital stock these results imply lower economic cost for policies aimed at climate abatement and more efficient utilization of energy resources in energy intensive economies

the contribution of environmental regulations to the slowdown in productivity growth abstract the radical slowdown in productivity growth since 1965 is often attributed to environmental regulations several studies varying widely in method have attempted to assess this contribution here these analyses are reviewed and critiqued and a summary appraisal of the likely contribution of environmental regulations to the observed decrease in productivity growth is offered

major oecd country industrial sector interfuel substitution estimates 1960 1979 abstract a range of static and dynamic translog based expenditure shares models are estimated for non energy producing industrial sectors of the major seven countries of the oecd area sectoral energy volume and fuel efficiency bias variables are shown to be significant over and above individual prices in explaining individual fuel expenditure shares statistically significant own price and cross price elasticities of demand are presented for individual countries with some magnitudes varying considerably across alternative model specifications

profit rent and the terms of trade a reply abstract andrews 1985 investigates the theoretical coherence and policy relevance of our 1982 model and concludes contrary to our own findings that a positive rate of profit is not necessary to obtain a two signed derivative of the profit rate with respect to agriculture s terms of trade she characterizes the model as neo ricardian on the grounds that the technology is the culprit and also questions the empirical relevance of our fixed profit equilibrium or land price treadmill we show here that if a viability condition stated in our original paper holds parameter values of the model must yield a positive rate of profit if the profit rate is to fall following an improvement in the terms of trade we then contrast our model with a more neoclassical one in which the sign of the derivative does strictly depend on the technology that is upon factor intensities finally we present empirical evidence from a detailed study of the u s economy based on our original model these data support the existence of a land price treadmill in agriculture especially for countries in which workers are successful in defending a given real wage

a national micro data based model of residential electricity demand new evidence on seasonal variation building on earlier estimates of electricity demand the author estimates elasticities by month to determine differences between heating and cooling seasons he develops a three equation model of residential electricity demand that includes all the main components of economic theory the model generates seasonal elasticity estimates that generally support economic theory based on the model using a national current household data set monthly division the evidence indicates there is a seasonal pattern for price elasticity of demand while less pronounced there also appears to be seasonal patterns for cross price elasticity of alternative fuels for the elasticity of appliance stock index and for an intensity of use variable

electricity demand in a developing country paraguay this study analyzes the residential and commercial demand for electricity in ten regions in paraguay for 1970 1977 models that are both linear and nonlinear in the parameters are estimated the nonlinear model takes advantage of prior information on the nature of the appliances being utilized and simultaneously deals with the demand discontinuities caused by appliance indivisibility three dynamic equations including a novel cumulative adjustment model all indicate rapid adjustment to desired appliance stock levels finally the multiproduct surplus loss obtained from an estimated demand equation is used to measure the welfare cost of power outages 15 references

estimation of elasticities for domestic energy demand in mozambique abstract in mozambique households consume a mix of energy sources to satisfy their needs for lighting and cooking and for wealthier households other domestic necessities such as refrigeration the domestic energy mix depends on the prices of the sources and on the capability of the household to invest in the energy consuming appliances required to satisfy those needs based on data from a household survey carried out in mozambique during 2002 3 iaf this paper calculates the price and the income elasticities of demand for domestic energy using an econometric method developed by deaton the calculations are made for all households at the national level differentiating for urban and rural households and for the northern households of mozambique in the econometric formulation proxies for the ownership of energy appliances per household are used allowing a simple evaluation of the effects of asset ownership on the demand for energy own and cross price elasticities for five individual domestic sources are obtained low grade sources such as firewood and charcoal are less elastic elasticities of 0 41 and 0 28 respectively than candles kerosene and electricity respectively 0 88 0 79 and 0 60 income elasticities are respectively 0 45 0 32 0 93 0 84 and 0 69 placing firewood and charcoal as the less responsive to income variations and candles and kerosene as the most responsive we also comment on the factors influencing domestic energy transition

energy demand with declining rate schedules an econometric model for the u s commercial sector we specify and estimate a model of the demand for electricity and natural gas in commercial buildings using data from the commercial building energy consumption survey although not observed declining rate schedules are approximated by a downward sloping function fitted to billing data for individual survey units marginal prices rates temperature variables and a large number of building characteristics are incorporated into the model as explanatory variables demand and rate schedule equations constitute a simultaneous system with prices and quantities jointly determined the effects on price elasticities of using endogenous marginal rather than exogenous average prices are estimated to be quite large

agricultural terms of trade and distributional perversities in a neo ricardian model abstract the comparative static effects of a change in terms of trade for the agricultural sector are examined in a two sector neo ricardian model when wages are held constant and intensive rents are earned by owners of the non produced land resource it is possible for a favorable shift in agriculture s terms of trade to lead to a fall in the rate of profit on circulating capital or a decline in the rental rate on land the conditions causing these perverse profit and rental rate responses are shown to depend on the type of high yielding technology available the relevance of the analysis to policy making and investment in the agriculture sector is discussed

energy consumption and economic activity in industrialized economies a note abstract in industrialized countries the income elasticity of primary energy demand is not far off unity furthermore it can be argued that there is little use in distinguishing between short and long term income elasticities a long term income elasticity does not have a direct impact on energy demand and hence it is of doubtful use in energy demand projections via an aggregate oecd model it was estimated that the short term impact of prices on primary energy demand is about 0 15 while the long term impact is 0 43 but increasing over time

the allocation of capital between residential and nonresidential uses taxes inflation and capital market constraints we have constructed a simple two sector model of the demand for housing and corporate capital economic growth and an increase in the inflation rate were then simulated with a number of model variants the model and simulation experiments illustrate both the tax bias in favor of housing and the manner in which the increase in inflation between 1965 and 1978 magnified it the existence of capital market constraints offsets the bias against corporate capital but it introduces a sharp inefficient reallocation of housing from less wealthy constrained households to wealthy households who do not have gains on mortgages and are not financially constrained

the merits of dual pricing of russian natural gas our analysis reveals that from russia s perspective there is no economic rationale to unify the price of natural gas it sells domestically and in europe we argue that pipelines allow gazprom to segment the russian market from the european including turkey market and that russia has market power in the european market if russia were to fail to exploit this market power in its european market by selling its natural gas to europe at only full long run marginal cost plus transportation costs russia would lose between 5 billion and 7 5 billion per year almost two per cent of its gdp if instead russia were to raise its domestic prices to the prices it charges in europe russian industry would incur very large investment adjustment and unemployment costs in the short run adjustment costs that cannot be justified on the basis of comparative advantage we estimate that the efficient world price would be achieved if gazprom were to employ its optimal two part tariff the optimal two part tariff would double gazprom s annual profits in europe but it involves significant long term risks for gazprom of lost market share

valuation of expectations a hedonic study of shale gas development and new york s moratorium abstract this paper examines the local impacts of shale gas development sgd we use a hedonic framework and exploit a discrete change in expectations about sgd caused by the new york state moratorium on hydraulic fracturing our research design combines difference in differences and border discontinuity as well as underlying shale geology on properties in pennsylvania and new york results suggest that new york properties that were most likely to experience both the financial benefits and environmental consequences of sgd dropped in value 23 as a result of the moratorium which under certain assumptions indicates a large and positive net valuation of sgd

international evidence on aggregate short run and long run interfuel substitution in this paper we build on recent work by serletis et al 2010 in press and report short and long run estimates of aggregate interfuel substitution for a number of oecd and non oecd countries in doing so we use recent pooled intercountry data since 1980 and state of the art advances in microeconometrics including duality theory and flexible functional forms also motivated by the widespread practice in the empirical energy demand literature of ignoring theoretical regularity we estimate our model subject to global curvature but not monotonicity using methods developed by diewert and wales 1987 we provide inference and also a policy perspective using parameter estimates that are consistent with the theoretical regularity conditions of neoclassical microeconomic theory

the relationship among energy prices and energy consumption in china the pricing mechanism for energy is not in line with the international standards because the energy prices are controlled by the government partly or completely in china chinese government made a lot of efforts to improve the pricing mechanism for energy the relations between chinese energy prices and energy consumption are the foundations to reform the mechanism in this paper the relations between chinese energy consumption and energy prices are researched by cointegration equations impulse response functions granger causality and variance decomposition the cointegration relations among energy prices energy consumption and economic outputs show that higher energy price will decrease energy consumption in chinese industrial sectors but will not reduce the economic output in the long run the cointegration relation between energy price and household energy consumption shows that higher energy price will decrease household energy consumption in the long run and increase it in the short run so chinese government should deepen the reform of pricing mechanism for energy and increase the energy prices reasonably to save energy

lng is linking regional natural gas markets evidence from the gravity model abstract evidence exists that global natural gas markets have become more integrated over time one possible explanation for this increased level of integration is that increased liquefied natural gas trade has increased the opportunity for price arbitrage by decreasing transport costs if this explanation is true then the natural gas market should become relatively more integrated because countries separated by large distances would be more willing to trade with each other we employ a gravity model to test whether trade in liquefied natural gas has helped to de regionalize the total natural gas market using trade in the compressed natural gas market as a comparison benchmark the results indicate that liquefied natural gas is indeed a global commodity whereas the compressed natural gas markets are more regional importantly we find that trade in liquefied natural gas has de regionalized the total natural gas market

regulatory policy oecd experience and evidence in the past 20 years a key topic of public sector reform in oecd countries has been the emergence of regulatory policy during this period the nature of regulation has undergone profound and rapid change this paper reviews the development of regulatory policy in oecd countries over the last quarter century it identifies a range of tools and institutions that have been used by oecd countries to develop high quality regulation the analysis attempts to show that while there is considerable commonality on broad objectives of regulatory policy considerably diversity remains in the implementation of regulatory policy across oecd countries copyright 2006 oxford university press

industrial demand for natural gas inter industry variation in new york state abstract this study investigates the variability in demand for natural gas by manufacturing industries in new york state the study uses a dynamic model using the three stage least squares method which allows for the calculation of both long and short run elasticities the demand model the price equations for the major natural gas using industries and the estimation results are presented and analysed it differs from previous studies of natural gas demand in that it is done at the sic two digit industry level using state specific data rather than highly aggregated national data

appliance specific electricity consumption in slovene households abstract on the basis of a national household survey carried out in 1983 this study presents estimates of electricity use per appliance our estimates of electricity use for space heating water heating and cooking are considerably lower than the engineering estimates the estimates for other electricity using appliances broadly conform with engineering estimates our low estimate of the short run income elasticity is in close agreement with other studies

quality of life and spatial dimensions of the productivity slowdown this research is concerned with explaning locational variations in the productivity slowdown within the urban manufacturing sector of the united states the observed decline in labour productivity growth rates between the 1963 73 and 1973 82 subperiods is explained on the basis of both national and location specific factors an explict hypothesis examined here is that quality of life is an important area specifc influence on productivity growth and related trends statistical analyses are conducted whereby either an aggregate amenity index or its individual amenity components are utilized to examine the importance of quality of life differentials the results suggest that these amenities particularly environmental quality may be instrumental in explanining the differncial magnitude of the productivity slowdown across urban areas additional findings generally do not confirm the importance of other factors frequently cited as contributing to inter area productivity differences a regression diagnostic an

cointegration and causality between electricity consumption and gdp empirical evidence from malawi abstract the granger causality gc and error correction ecm techniques were applied on 1970 1999 data for malawi to examine cointegration and causality between electricity consumption kwh and respectively overall gdp agricultural gdp agdp and non agricultural gdp ngdp cointegration was established between kwh and respectively gdp and ngdp but not with agdp the gc results detect bi directional causality between kwh and gdp suggesting that kwh and gdp are jointly determined but one way causality running from ngdp to kwh the ecm results detect causality running one way from gdp also from ngdp to kwh suggesting that a permanent rise in gdp may cause a permanent growth in electricity consumption

residential demand for fuelwood this is the first national microbased study of residential demand for wood as fuel the data are from the us department of energy residential energy consumption survey the model employs a somewhat unique interaction dummy for price that allows the simultaneity problem to be adjusted for in a 2sls format and then the interaction term to be calculated and entered in the second stage results are compared with elasticity estimates derived from the same data set for the four other main residential fuels wood has a price elasticity of 0 421 for main users

lifeline electricity rates as an income transfer device comment the authors question the supporting evidence given in an earlier paper by burgess and paglin eapa 7 4039 they suggest using the national interim energy consumption survey niecs as an alternative base and present a new set of equations to validate the income elasticity of demand in the justification of lifeline rates burgess and paglin reply noting that garbacz s study raises questions about a national requirement for lifeline rates 4 references 5 tables dck

an aggregate petroleum consumption model abstract this paper presents an aggregative model of us consumption of petroleum and products of a type which might potentially be used to derive short term forecasts of us petroleum consumption and imports the model attempts to separate income and weather related changes from those induced by changes in relative prices with emphasis on the dynamic path of consumption responses to price changes estimation results suggest that there are still significant price effects six years after a change in the relative price of petroleum

the effects of a natural gas boom on employment and income in colorado texas and wyoming improvements in technology have made it profitable to tap unconventional gas reservoirs in relatively impermeable shale and sandstone deposits which are spread throughout the u s mostly in rural areas proponents of gas drilling point to the activity s local economic benefits yet no empirical studies have systematically documented the magnitude or distribution of economic gains i estimate these gains for counties in colorado texas and wyoming three states where natural gas production expanded substantially since the late 1990s i find that a large increase in the value of gas production caused modest increases in employment wage and salary income and median household income the results suggest that each million dollars in gas production created 2 35 jobs in the county of production which led to an annualized increase in employment that was 1 5 of the pre boom level for the average gas boom county comparisons show that ex ante estimates of the number of jobs created by developing the fayetteville and marcellus shale gas formations may have been too large

electricity consumption and economic growth in jamaica abstract this study examines the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in jamaica during 1970 86 a period of rapid increase in energy prices the results show that the aggregate demand for electricity is slightly income elastic electricity has a significant impact on economic growth the electricity intensity has increased over time residential demand is fairly income elastic commercial demand is price inelastic and the rate of adjustment is slow these results suggest that conservation policies could be ineffective therefore indigenous sources of electricity are important for jamaica to be less dependent on imported energy

the cost of regulation osha epa and the productivity slowdown the slowdown in productivity growth in the u s economy during the 1970 s has been a matter of great concern to policymakers associated as it is with inflation unemployment and declining real wage growth this paper examines the impact on productivity growth of government regulation specifically worker health and safety regulation by the occupational safety and health administration osha and environmental regulation by the environmental protection agency epa looking at data for 450 manufacturing industries between 1958 and 1978 the study finds a large negative relationship between such regulation and productivity growth using these results about 30 percent of the decline in productivity growth in manufacturing during the 1970 s may be attributed to such regulation several previous studies have looked at the contribution of regulation to the productivity slowdown many of these have inferred that the contribution must be small on the basis of the relatively small amount spent on complying with such regulations edward denison 1979 estimates that only about 16 percent of the productivity slowdown in the 1972 75 period was due to regulation 35 percentage points out of a slowdown of 2 17 percentage points paul portney 1981 notes that little of gnp is spent on pollution control under 2 percent concluding that therefore pollution regulations could have little effect on productivity growth norsworthy et al 1979 also find a small impact of pollution abatement capital expenditures on productivity growth studies based on econometric estimation of the regulation productivity relationship have found a wide range of results gregory christainsen and robert haveman 1981 find regulation reduced labor productivity growth by 27 percentage points using time series data and measures of total federal regulation robert crandall 1981 finds a strong relationship between pollution abatement capital and productivity growth but this relationship disappears when a measure of energy intensity is included robin siegel 1979 observes a significant contribution 5 percentage points from pollution control expenditures to the productivity slowdown for 1965 73 but not for later years finally frank gollop and mark roberts 1983 examine data for a set of electric utilities and find that regulation of emissions had a large impact on total factor productivity growth lowering it for regulated firms by 59 percentage points many other factors might help to explain the productivity slowdown including the rise in energy prices the long and severe recession and declines in research and development expenditures there have been a variety of studies examining the contributions of each factor to the slowdown they generally conclude that many factors contributed to the slowdown but that a sizable fraction of the slowdown remains unexplained by the estimated contributions of all the factors considered

residential energy demand additional empirical evidence by minority household type abstract in a number of recent studies household level data for specific urban areas or national household level micro data have been used to estimate price and income elasticities of energy demand none of this literature however provides us with elasticity estimates by minority majority household type the main focus of this paper is to measure the responsiveness of the quantity of electricity and total energy demanded for black hispanis and majority households to price and income price and income elasticities are compared among these groups over the short and long term a variable elasticity demand model is estimated the elasticities are allowed to vary with respect to non price and income variables the price elasticities of demand vary with heating and cooling degree days and the income elasticities with the number of household members mean estimates were calculated over the respective samples findings indicate that demand for electricity is relatively price inelastic irrespective of household group however blacks are more sensitive to variations in the short run to price than hispanic and majority households in the long run blacks are also more sensitive to price changes but the magnitude of the response to price changes in the long run relative to the short run is larger for hispanics and majority households respectively than for blacks

electricity policies for low income households this paper discusses the implications of restructuring the u s electricity industry for low income energy policy and low income households the paper discusses the historical development of existing low income energy policies and programs federal policy has focused primarily on addressing the heating needs of low income customers state policy has traditionally vested the vertically integrated utility with much of the responsibility to provide energy programs to low income customers the paper considers how industry restructuring may affect the appropriateness of these policies and programs the paper describes new policies to provide low income electricity services that could be developed in parallel with broader industry restructuring efforts

a meta analysis of the price elasticity of gasoline demand a sur approach abstract automobile gasoline demand can be expressed as a multiplicative function of fuel efficiency mileage per car and car ownership this implies a linear relationship between the price elasticity of total fuel demand and the price elasticities of fuel efficiency mileage per car and car ownership in this meta analytical study we aim to investigate and explain the variation in empirical estimates of the price elasticity of gasoline demand a methodological novelty is that we use the linear relationship between the elasticities to develop a meta analytical estimation approach based on a seemingly unrelated regression sur model with cross equation restrictions this approach enables us to combine observations of different elasticities and thus increase our sample size furthermore it allows for a more detailed interpretation of our meta regression results the empirical results of the study demonstrate that the sur approach leads to more precise results i e lower standard errors than a standard meta analytical approach we find that with mean short run and long run price elasticities of 0 34 and 0 84 respectively the demand for gasoline is not very price sensitive both in the short and the long run the impact of a change in the gasoline price on demand is mainly driven by responses in fuel efficiency and mileage per car and to a slightly lesser degree by changes in car ownership furthermore we find that study characteristics relating to the geographic area studied the year of the study the type of data used the time horizon and the functional specification of the demand equation have a significant impact on the estimated value of the price elasticity of gasoline demand

residential demand for electricity the case of greece this paper examines the determinants of residential electricity consumption in greece over the period 1961 86 the paper presents first a brief description of the evolution of residential electricity consumption then it proceeds in the estimation of elasticities of residential demand for electricity using a single equation model with the ridge regression method the paper concludes that i the residential demand for electricity is price inelastic and income elastic ii there is high substitutability between electricity and lpg iii during the examined period the number of consumers played a very important role in the expansion of electricity consumption in greece and iv there is no regional variation in residential electricity demand

open access and the evolution of the u s spot market for natural gas federal regulations promoting open access transportation dramatically altered the organizational structure of the u s market for natural gas in the 1980s generally unbundling the merchant and transport functions of interstate pipelines an empirical analysis of wellhead spot prices is undertaken to examine the effect of open access on the geographic scope of the spot market using monthly spot price data from 1984 91 three statistical tests are applied and compared price correlations granger causality and cointegration we find that open access integrated the regional wellhead markets into a national competitive market for natural gas the effects of unbundling on contracts for natural gas are then investigated incentives for long term contracts between pipelines and producers are shown to be effectively removed by the introduction of competitive buying and selling of gas at the wellhead through open access

short run residential demand for fuels a disaggregated approach a disaggregated model of residential energy demand is specified and then used to examine the data and econometric techniques available to estimate such a model inconsistencies in the currently popular random effects model and weighted least squares generate inconsistent parameter estimates for short run modeling some of the currently available pooled data is of poor quality the principal data series of concern are the appliance stock series but current research is attempting to improve aggregate data while the disaggregated elasticities reported can only be considered tentative the approach combined with better data and econometric techniques will produce an important policy tool the regression results are summarized in two tables in the appendix 42 references 5 tables

income and employment effects of shale gas extraction windfalls evidence from the marcellus region abstract new technologies combining hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling in oil and gas extraction are creating a sudden expansion of production residents of places where deep underground oil and gas deposits are found want to know about the broader economic social and environmental impacts of these activities that generate windfall income for some residents we first review the literature on windfall spending patterns then using the marcellus region the earliest area to be tapped using the new techniques we estimate county level employment and income effects for robustness we employ two methods using a propensity score matching approach we find no effect of fracking on income or employment a panel fixed effect regression approach suggests statistically significant employment effects in six out of seven alternative specifications but significant income effects in only one out of seven specifications in short the income spillover effects in the marcellus region appear to be minimal meaning there s little incentive at the county level to incur current or potential future costs that may be associated with this activity we conclude with some ideas on how localities might employ policies that would allow natural gas extraction to move forward benefitting landowners while establishing some financial safeguards for the broader community

material productivity in food manufacturing material prices have risen in food manufacturing resulting in material productivity growth this study estimates material productivity indexes for new jersey s foodmanufacturing sector a 21 material productivity growth is indicated for the 1964 84 period the mechanism of material productivity growth is also investigated results suggest that greater material efficiency is encouraged by rising material prices wage rates and regulation and by declining food prices short run impacts on material productivity are caused by input substitution beyond the short run impacts are caused by material saving technological change in some food manufacturing subsectors higher material prices may bring lower revenues to material suppliers

dynamic translog and linear logit models a factor demand analysis of interfuel substitution in us industrial energy demand abstract we compare and contrast two popular dynamic flexible functional forms for cost functions the translog and the logit j bus econ stat 8 1990 347 353 using data on us industrial energy demand from 1960 to 1992 which has been analysed by previous studies energy econ 11 1989 89 94 appl econ 21 1989 931 945 j bus econ stat 13 1995 459 465 we show the crucial role played by different dynamic formulations of the translog in this analysis of factor demands with respect to rates of dynamic adjustment and substitution possibilities we conclude that the poor performance of the dynamic translog relative to the dynamic logit cannot be explained solely by dynamic model mis specification or the inclusion of price unresponsive non energy fuel use data our most robust empirical result is that coal and oil are substitutes

world crude oil and natural gas a demand and supply model abstract this paper examines world markets for crude oil and natural gas over the period 1918 1999 it analyzes the time series properties of output and prices and estimates demand and supply elasticities during 1918 1973 and 1973 1999 oil and gas prices were stable during the first period they became volatile afterwards reflecting deep changes in the market structure following the oil shock in 1973 demand price elasticities were too low however demand income elasticities were high supply price elasticities were also too low the elasticity estimates help to explain the market power of the oil producers and price volatility in response to shocks and corroborate elasticity estimates in energy studies

industrial sector interfuel substitution following the first major oil shock abstract strict conditions for a two stage translog expenditure shares model are violated a single stage homothetic symmetry equality model is rejected in favour of a non homothetic equality model international own price elasticities derived from the latter for oil gas coal and electricity are 0 26 0 81 0 97 and 0 02 little changed from 0 24 0 71 1 35 and 0 09 for the former

the demand for electricity and natural gas in the northeastern united states the demand for natural gas and electricity for the residential commercial and industrial sectors was estimated using a combination of the error components model and seemingly unrelated regressions the estimated demand models showed both natural gas and electricity to be price elastic in the long run and price inelastic in the short run in all sectors except the commercial sector in which electricity demand is unresponsive to its own price natural gas had negligible income elasticities in the residential and commercial sectors and a long run income elasticity of 2 86 in the industrial sector electricity had an insignificant income effect in all sectors but the industrial where its long run elasticity was unitary only in the residential demand for natural gas is the cross price elasticity substantial with the price of electricity having a long run cross elasticity of 1 70 fuel oil prices generally had a negative impact probably indicating a large income effect the elasticities of adjustment were higher for natural gas than electricity indicating a faster adjustment to change either in response to greater instability in energy availability or reflecting more alternative fuels or both 16 references 4 tables