the turning black tide energy prices and the canadian dollar the authors revisit the relationship between energy prices and the canadian dollar in the amano and van norden 1995 equation which shows a negative relationship such that higher real energy prices lead to a depreciation of the canadian dollar

rational household labor supply traditionally household behavior is derived from the maximization of a unique utility function in this paper we propose an alternative approach in which the household is modeled as a two member collectivity taking pareto efficient decisions the consequences of this assumption are analyzed in a three good model in which only total consumption and each member s labor supply are observable if the agents are assumed egoistic i e they are only concerned with their own leisure and consumption it is possible to derive falsifiable conditions upon household labor supplies from both a parametric and nonparametric viewpoint if alternatively agents are altruistic restrictions obtain in the nonparametric context useful interpretation stems from the comparison with the characterization of aggregate demand for a private good economy

marriage market divorce legislation and household labor supply this paper provides a theoretical framework for analyzing the impact of the marriage market and divorce legislation on household labor supply in our approach the sex ratio in the marriage market and the rules governing divorce are examples of distribution factors these factors are defined as variables that affect the household members bargaining position but not preferences or the joint budget set we extend the collective labor supply model developed by chiappori to allow for distribution factors we show that our model imposes new restrictions on the labor supply functions and eases the identification of individual preferences and the intrahousehold decision process the model is estimated using psid data for the year 1988 our results do not reject the restrictions imposed by the model also the sex ratio and divorce laws deemed favorable to women are found to affect labor supply behavior and the decision process in the directions predicted by the theory and to have sizable effects

speculative and hedging activities in the european carbon market abstract we explore the dynamics of the speculative and hedging activities in european futures carbon markets by using volume and open interest data a comparison of the three phases in the european union emission trading scheme eu ets reveals that i phase ii of the eu ets seems to be the most speculative phase to date and ii the highest degree of speculative activity for every single phase occurs at the moment of listing the contracts for the first time a seasonality analysis identifies a higher level of speculation in the first quarter of each year related to the schedule of deadlines of the eu ets in addition a time series analysis confirms that most of the speculative activity each year occurs in the front contract whereas the hedging demand concentrates in the second to deliver futures contract

female labour supply and marital status decisions a life cycle model this paper studies the interdependence between and the determinants of life cycle marital status and labour force participation decisions of women a dynamic utility maximization model is presented and estimated using longitudinal data on women from the panel study of income dynamics the mle method employed involves solving a dynamic programming problem further a minimum distance estimator is proposed which allows for the incorporation of wage data in a computationally simple way the estimates are used to predict changes in the life cycle patterns of employment marriage and divorce due to differences in education race the female s earnings and her potential husband s earnings the estimation results indicate that the utility gains to marriage are decreasing in the female s wage rate and increasing in her potential husband s earnings while the opposite is found for gains to working ignoring the endogeneity of marital status decisions is shown to lead to an underestimation of own and husband s wage effects on female labour supply

compensating wage differentials in stable job matching equilibrium abstract this paper studies implicit pricing of non wage job characteristics in the labor market using a two sided matching model it departs from the previous literature by allowing worker heterogeneity in productivity which gives rise to a double transaction problem in a hedonic model deriving sufficient conditions under which assortative matching is the unique stable job worker matching we show that observed wage differentials between jobs reflect not only compensating wage differentials but also worker productivity gaps between the jobs we find that the job worker matching pattern determines the extent to which compensating wage differentials are confounded with the worker productivity gap effect

banking and back loading emission permits in this article we focus on the so called back loading policy adopted by the european commission to increase the carbon market price this environmental measure consists of removing a share of the allowances allocated for a given period in order to reallocate some or all of them later on to analyze the impact of the permits back loading we determine the co2 price equilibrium with and without the policy measure considering not only the market for permits but also the output market of regulated sectors we propose a two period model where the market for permits is perfectly competitive and the output market can be either competitive or oligopolistic first we define the condition under which banking from one period to another is optimal this condition that is the absence of arbitrage opportunities aoa depends not only from the period initial allocation but also on production market fundamentals when this condition is satisfied the market for emission is shown intertemporally efficient second we point out that the back loading measure may create inefficiencies or leave unaffected the permits price if it alters the aoa

how do sex ratios affect marriage and labor markets evidence from america s second generation sex ratios i e relative numbers of men and women can affect marriage prospects labor force participation and other social and economic variables but the observed association between sex ratios and social and economic conditions may be confounded by omitted variables and reverse causality this paper uses variation in immigrant flows as a natural experiment to study the effect of sex ratios on the children and grandchildren of immigrants the flow of immigrants affected the second generation marriage market because second generation marriages were mostly endogamous i e to members of the same ethnic group the empirical results suggest that high sex ratios had a large positive effect on the likelihood of female marriage and a large negative effect on female labor force participation perhaps surprisingly the marriage rates of second generation men appear to be a slightly increasing function of immigrant sex ratios higher sex ratios also appear to have raised male earnings and the incomes of parents with young children the empirical results are broadly consistent with theories where higher sex ratios increase female bargaining power in the marriage market

oil price inflation pass through in romania during the inflation targeting regime abstractin the wake of the inflation targeting strategy in romania we estimate the impact of international oil prices upon the consumer price index cpi and core inflation the inflation target was systematically missed by the monetary authorities who explain this failure by exogenous factors using a frequency domain framework we show that the oil price inflation pass through can be observed only for those components of inflation which include volatile prices and only in the medium run our results put forward that the constant missing of the target cannot be explained by the oil price inflation pass through and the credibility of the strategy is put into question

drivers and triggers of international food price spikes and volatility the objective of this study is to explore empirical evidence about the quantitative importance of supply demand and market shocks for price changes in international food commodity markets to this end it distinguishes between root conditional and internal drivers of price changes using three empirical models 1 a price spike model in which monthly food price returns spikes are estimated against oil prices supply and demand shocks and excessive speculative activity 2 a volatility model in which annualized monthly variability of food prices is estimated against the same set of variables plus a financial crisis index and 3 a trigger model that estimates extreme values of price spikes and volatility using quantile regressions the results point to increasing linkages between food energy and financial markets this explains much of the observed food price spikes and volatility while financial speculation amplifies short term price spikes oil price volatility intensifies medium term price volatility

competitive search equilibrium in this paper i construct an equilibrium for markets with frictions which is competitive in the sense that all agents are price takers and maximize utility subject to a set of market parameters i show that the equilibrium allocation is socially optimal i also show how the competitive search equilibrium can be achieved if employers with vacancies can advertise publicly the wages they pay

asean income gap and the optimal exchange rate regime this article investigates the optimal exchange rate regime in a group of asean countries which minimizes the adverse effects of foreign demand shocks on real output the real exchange rate price

oil prices inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated var model for the g 7 countries sharp increases in the price of oil are generally seen as a major contributor to business cycle asymmetries moreover the very recent highs registered in the world oil market are causing concern about possible slowdowns in the economic performance of the most developed countries in this paper a structural cointegrated var model has been considered for the g 7 countries in order to study the direct effects of oil price shocks on output and prices and the reaction of monetary variables to external shocks our results can be summarized as follows i a stationary money demand as suggested by the classic theory of money can be identified for most countries ii according to the estimated coefficients of the structural part of the model for all countries except japan and u k the null hypothesis of an influence of oil prices on the inflation rate cannot be rejected inflation rate shocks are transmitted to the real economy by increasing interest rates iii impulse response analysis suggests for most countries the existence of an instantaneous temporary effect of oil price innovations on prices iv impulse response functions indicate different monetary policy reactions to inflationary and growth shocks v the simulation exercises directed to estimate the total impact of the 1990 oil price shock indicate that for some countries u s a significant part of the effects of the oil price shock is due to the monetary policy reaction function for other countries canada france and italy however the total impact is offset at least in part by an easing of monetary conditions

electricity consumption and economic growth exploring panel specific differences abstract in this paper we examine the long and short run dynamics between electricity consumption and economic activities using panel data of per capita electricity consumption and per capita gdp of 160 countries for the period of 1980 2010 accounting for the degree of electricity dependence and the level of urbanization furthermore in order to capture the differences in this relationship the full sample is divided into various subsamples based on countries income levels regional locations and oecd memberships this framework is argued and found to be appropriate since the causal links and inferences arising therefrom differ considerably among the subsamples which led us to conclude that the electricity growth nexus is highly sensitive to regional differences countries income levels urbanization rates and supply risks

on the links between stock and commodity markets volatility this paper investigates the links between price returns for 25 commodities and stocks over the period from january 2001 to november 2011 by paying a particular attention to energy raw materials relying on the dynamic conditional correlation dcc garch methodology we show that the correlations between commodity and stock markets evolve through time and are highly volatile particularly since the 2007 2008 financial crisis the latter has played a key role emphasizing the links between commodity and stock markets and underlining the financialization of commodity markets at the idiosyncratic level a speculation phenomenon is highlighted for oil coffee and cocoa while the safe haven role of gold is evidenced

should investors include commodities in their portfolios after all new evidence abstract this paper investigates whether an investor is made better off by including commodities in a portfolio that consists of traditional asset classes first we revisit the posed question within an in sample setting by employing mean variance and non mean variance spanning tests then we form optimal portfolios by taking into account the higher order moments of the portfolio returns distribution and evaluate their out of sample performance under the in sample setting we find that commodities are beneficial only to non mean variance investors however these benefits are not preserved out of sample our findings challenge the alleged diversification benefits of commodities and are robust across a number of performance evaluation measures utility functions and datasets the results hold even when transaction costs are considered and across various sub periods not surprisingly the only exception appears over the 2005 2008 unprecedented commodity boom period

oil price shocks and real gdp growth empirical evidence for some oecd countries this study assesses empirically the effects of oil price shocks on the real economic activity of the main industrialized countries multivariate var analysis is carried out using both linear and non linear models the latter category includes three approaches employed in the literature namely the asymmetric scaled and net specifications evidence of a non linear impact of oil prices on real gdp is found in particular oil price increases are found to have an impact on gdp growth of a larger magnitude than that of oil price declines with the latter being statistically insignificant in most cases among oil importing countries oil price increases are found to have a negative impact on economic activity in all cases but japan moreover the effect of oil shocks on gdp growth differs between the two oil exporting countries in the sample with the uk being negatively affected by an oil price increase and norway benefiting from it

unemployment and the business cycle in a small open economy g m m estimation and testing with french data abstract what is a relevant model for the european business cycle in this paper the empirical performances of three models are compared a canonical walrasian r b c framework its extension to the case of a small open economy and a version of this model with search and wage bargaining on the labor market structural parameters of the models are estimated using g m m and their abilities to reproduce the french business cycle taken as representative of the european business cycle are tested only the small open economy with unemployment is able to generate theoretical moments that match their empirical counterparts

women on welfare a macroeconomic analysis look at the dramatic change in family structure that has occurred recently illustrated in figure 1 in the united states 23 percent of children lived with an unwed mother in 1998 compared with only 8 percent in 1960 1 of this 15 percentage point increase about 6 percentage points are due to a rise in the rate of divorce the remaining 9 percentage points arise from an increase in out of wedlock births why care about this change in the structure of families the lot of children living with a single mother is bleak about 70 percent of those children in a family with a never married mother were living near or below the poverty level in 1995 the corresponding figure for children being raised by a divorced mother was 45 percent associated with the increase in number of single mothers has been a rise in the percentage of the population on welfare in 1960 only 1 7 percent of the population was on afdc aid to families with dependent children while in 1995 about 5 2 percent were most mothers who received afdc were single 71 percent were in 1993 also afdc mothers tended to have more children 2 6 on average vs 2 1 for the population as a whole in 1993 it is interesting to note that there is evidence suggesting that more entrances into and exits out of welfare are connected with a shift in family structure rather than with a change in employment status for instance of the first time entrances into welfare during 1983 1991 about 21 percent were associated with an out of wedlock birth 23 percent were connected with a divorce or separation and 21 percent were linked with a reduction in the mother s work hours last real afdc benefits rose by about 70 percent between 1945 and 1977 they were about 25 percent higher in 1995 than in 1945 could this have contributed to the rise in single motherhood the task here is to outline a general equilibrium model in which at any point in time some individuals will marry others will divorce and yet others will choose to have out of wedlock births while the model is still prototypical in nature it will be shown how such a framework can be used to address public policy questions in particular the impact of welfare on family structure and the well being of the economy

the effects of oil price shocks on the iranian economy abstract the iranian economy is highly vulnerable to oil price fluctuations this paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between oil price shocks and major macroeconomic variables in iran by applying a var approach the study points out the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks for instance positive as well as negative oil price shocks significantly increase inflation we find a strong positive relationship between positive oil price changes and industrial output growth unexpectedly we can only identify a marginal impact of oil price fluctuations on real government expenditures furthermore we observe the dutch disease syndrome through significant real effective exchange rate appreciation

role of oil price shocks on macroeconomic activities an svar approach to the malaysian economy and monetary responses abstract this study examines the impact of oil price uncertainty on malaysian macroeconomic activities and monetary responses we use a structural var svar model based on monthly data over the period 1986 2009 the egarch model estimates show an important asymmetric effect of oil price shocks on the conditional oil price volatility dynamic impulse response functions obtained from the svar model show a prolonged dampening effect of oil price volatility shock on malaysian industrial production we also find that levels of consumer price index cpi decline with a positive shock to oil price uncertainty this is the result of negative demand shock due to the postponement of consumption of big ticket items by individuals households and other sectors of the economy we also found that the malaysian central bank adopts an expansionary monetary policy in response to oil price uncertainty variance decomposition analysis reconfirms that volatility in the oil price is the second most important factor to explain the variance of industrial production after its own shocks these results shed some light on how the central bank of malaysia can use controlling mechanisms to stabilize aggregate output and price level

oil indexation market fundamentals and natural gas prices an investigation of the asian premium in natural gas trade abstract a heated debate has arisen over whether the asian premium i e higher prices in asia than elsewhere in natural gas trade is due to price discrimination or different market fundamentals determining the origin of this premium can help to guide the gas industries and policy makers in asia especially when the traditional oil indexed price mechanism fades away using a new systemic time series approach this paper explores the extent to which oil prices and market fundamentals contribute to variations in gas prices in japan the united states and germany we find clear cross country differences and time varying patterns gas prices are much less affected by supply and demand factors than oil prices in japan and germany whereas these factors are more important than oil prices in the us market which has a pricing hub through rolling windows and subsample analysis we discover that oil prices were important in japan and germany but the level of importance has declined significantly in recent years though the contribution of fundamentals does not change much the results show that asian gas prices are determined more by oil prices than by the market fundamentals thus the asian premium is more likely due to this oil indexed pricing mechanism rather than market fundamentals this suggests that developing asia s benchmark prices through trading hubs with a better reflection of regional specific fundamentals can lead to a more efficient allocation of gas resources

bargaining and distribution in marriage the standard economic model of the family is a common preference model that assumes that a family maximizes a single utility function and implies that family behavior is independent of which individuals receive income or control resources in recent years this model has been challenged by game theoretic models of marriage that do not impose pooling and are therefore consistent with empirical evidence that income controlled by husbands and wives does have different effects on family behavior in this paper the authors review a number of simple bargaining models and relevant empirical evidence and discuss their implications for distribution within marriage

fertility shocks and equilibrium marriage rate dynamics why did the marriage probability of single females in france after world war 1 rise 50 above its pre war average despite a 33 drop in the male female singles ratio we conjecture that war time disruption of the marriage market generated an abnormal abundance of men with relatively high marriage propensities our model of matching over the lifecycle when calibrated to pre war data and two war time shocks succeeds in matching the french time path under the additional assumption of a pro natalist post war preference shock we conclude that endogeneity issues make the sex ratio a potentially unreliable indicator of female marriage prospects

the baby boom and baby bust what caused the baby boom and can it be explained within the context of the secular decline in fertility that has occurred over the last 200 years the hypothesis is that a the secular decline in fertility is due to the relentless rise in real wages that increased the opportunity cost of having children b the baby boom is explained by an atypical burst of technological progress in the household sector that occurred in the middle of the last century this lowered the cost of having children a model is developed in an attempt to account quantitatively for both the baby boom and bust

output effects of devaluation evidence from asia we study the effect of devaluation on output in six developing countries of asia in an empirical model that includes monetary fiscal and external variables we examine the impact of devaluation as the effect of real exchange depreciation and alternatively as the effect of nominal devaluation and changes in the foreign to domestic price ratio we find that with few exceptions a devaluation fails to make any effect on output over any length of time short run intermediate run or long run whatever effect on output we are able to uncover comes from the relative price level the ratio of foreign to domestic prices but not from nominal devaluation

oil and the macroeconomy since world war ii all but one of the u s recessions since world war ii have been preceded typically with a lag of around three fourths of a year by a dramatic increase in the price of crude petroleum this does not mean that oil shocks caused these recessions evidence is presented however that even over the period 1948 72 this correlation is statistically significant and nonspurious supporting the proposition that oil shocks were a contributing factor in at least some of the u s recessions prior to 1972 by extension energy price increases may account for much of post opec macroeconomic performance

accounting for racial differences in marriage and employment what can account for the differences in marriage and employment decisions across blacks and whites to answer this question i develop a dynamic equilibrium model of marriage two explanations for the racial differences in behavior are considered differences in population supplies and wages black white differences in population supplies explain one fifth of the difference in marriage rates and between one fifth and one third of the differences in employment rates across race removing the racial gap in wages eliminates the differences in employment but increases the differences in marriage rates

oil price fluctuations and singapore economy this study finds that the impact of an oil price shock on the singapore economy is marginal both impulse response and variance decomposition analysis provide reasonable grounds to believe that the impact only had an insignificant adverse effect on singapore s gross domestic product gdp inflation and unemployment rates further analysis on two oil vulnerability measures supports the finding the declining trend of oil intensity in singapore since 1989 and the declining shares of the singapore s expenditure on oil consumption as a percentage of its nominal gdp this study identifies however that the impact of an oil price shock on the singapore economy should not be considered negligible even though it is small

cohabitation marriage and divorce in a model of match quality the objective of this research is to further our understanding of how and why individuals enter and leave coresidential relationships we develop and estimate an economic model of nonmarital cohabitation marriage and divorce that is consistent with current data on the formation and dissolution of relationships jovanovic s journal of political economy 87 1979 972 90 theoretical matching model is extended to help explain household formation and dissolution behavior implications of the model reveal what factors influence the decision to start a relationship what form this relationship will take and the relative stability of the various types of unions the structural parameters of the model are estimated using longitudinal data from a sample of female high school seniors from the united states new numerical methods are developed to reduce computational costs associated with estimation the empirical results have interesting interpretations given the structural model they show that a significant cause of cohabitation is the need to learn about potential partners and to hedge against future bad shocks the estimated parameters are used to conduct several comparative dynamic experiments for example we show that policy experiments changing the cost of divorce have little effect on relationship choices

oil prices and the terms of trade abstract the combination of substantial terms of trade variability and unstable correlation patterns of trade prices with output and trade volumes has led some to suggest a break in the link between trade volumes and prices we find that oil accounts for much of the variation in the terms of trade over the last twenty five years and its quantitative role varies significantly over time and since our dynamic general equilibrium model predicts that the economy responds differently to oil supply shocks than to other shocks changes in their relative importance helps to account for the unstable correlations in the data

can t buy me love a field experiment exploring the trade off between income and caste status in an indian matrimonial market i introduction the relationship between economic motive and observance of discriminatory social customs is hardly new to economists this is implicit in the writings of becker 1957 1973 1974 on discrimination and other social customs and explicit in arrow s essay 1972 on discrimination and akerlof s work 1980 on the interactive relationship between economic incentives and discriminatory social customs as scholars like becker arrow and akerlof have investigated the relationship between economic incentives and the prevalence of custom based discrimination of which status based discrimination is an example it is natural to consult the related empirical evidence on the impact of economic incentives on the extent of status based discrimination surprisingly the extant empirical literature is mostly silent on how economic incentives may directly interact with status based discrimination 1 this is atypical as one would be hard pressed to find an issue as weighty as status based discrimination yet our knowledge in this aspect remains oddly limited our study aspires to rectify this gap this study investigates whether and what magnitude of economic incentive can diminish the incidence of status based discrimination by designing a controlled field experiment in an actual marketplace a reputable arranged marriage market that is conducted via newspaper advertisements the existing literature suggests that this market might be especially prone to strong discriminatory mate selection behavior based on the social identity status of an individual where caste identity of an individual is an easily measured indicator of social status the genesis of this discrimination can be attributed to a high status female s concern for a decline in her social status if she engages in a marital relationship with a low status male against this backdrop we ask whether a low status male could attempt to weaken this enduring form of discrimination by providing systematic economic incentive in the form of high monthly groom incomes to a high status female so that the former s marriage proposal receives preliminary consideration by the latter conditional on both individuals participation in this market the marketplace that we utilize is a well functioning arranged marriage market conducted via matrimonial advertisements in a widely circulated bengali language newspaper marriageable males in this market typically advertise their caste and income information among other attributes after these advertisements appear in the newspaper interested families contact the advertiser mostly in form of detailed letters expressing their interest in that advertisement this provides a confidential and reliable measure of first intent of the interested party in this case females therefore the conjunction of an exceptionally strong status based mate selection behavior a reputed market for arranged marriages and an exclusive correspondence process furnish us with a unique opportunity to investigate the main research hypothesis of our study to the best of our knowledge this is the first field experiment that exclusively focuses on how economic incentives can influence status based discrimination in an actual market 2 to operationalize the experiment we create nine unique matrimonial advertisements each representing a fictitious groom type 3 these potential grooms belong to one of the three blocks where each block contains three grooms from a given caste group we vary the caste status across these blocks we consider three different caste groups high middle and low strictly ranked so in the study region we vary the income features of grooms within a block we consider three different monthly income levels i e high medium and low that are considered feasible for each caste group in the study region furthermore we randomly assign other characteristics relevant for this market to all the potential grooms so that these features on average do not affect the behavior of responders

the effects of oil price on regional economies with different production structures a case study from korea using a structural var model abstract this study analyzes the effects of oil price fluctuations on regional macroeconomic variables with a structural var model we classified fifteen metropolitan cities and provinces of korea into four major regions capital central honam and gyeongsang and examined the effects of oil price fluctuations on the economy of these regions the results in the short and long term lag structures show a negative response to industrial production and price the capital region is less affected by oil price fluctuations than the other three provincial regions we concluded that the government should focus on creating an industrial environment to accumulate production factors and technologies in oil price sensitive regions

match quality new information and marital dissolution this article investigates the role of surprises in marital dissolution surprises consists of changes in the predicted earning capacity of either spouse data from the national longitudinal study of the high school class of 1972 is used we find that an unexpected increase in the husband s earning capacity reduces the divorce hazard while an unexpected increase in the wife s earning capacity raises the divorce hazard couples sort into marriage according to characteristics that are likely to enhance the stability of the marriage the divorce hazard is initially increasing with the duration of marriage and the presence of children and high levels of property stabilizes the marriage

political oil import diversification by financial and commercial traders abstract international politics affects the oil trade but do financial and commercial traders who participate in spot oil trading also respond to changes in international politics we construct a firm level dataset for all u s oil importing companies over 1986 2008 to examine how these firms respond to increases in political distance between the u s and her trading partners measured by divergence in their un general assembly voting patterns consistent with previous macro evidence we first show that individual firms diversify their oil imports politically even after controlling for unobserved firm heterogeneity however the political pattern of oil imports is not entirely driven by the concerns of hold up risks which exist when oil transactions via term contracts are associated with backward vertical fdi that is subject to expropriation in particular our results indicate that even financial and commercial traders significantly reduce their oil imports from u s political enemies interestingly while these traders diversify their oil imports politically immediately after changes in international politics other oil companies reduce their oil imports with a significant time lag our findings suggest that in designing regulations to avoid harmful repercussions on commodity and financial assets policymakers need to understand the nature of political risk

oil prices and financial stress a volatility spillover analysis this paper examines whether there is a volatility transmission between oil prices and financial stress by means of the volatility spillover test we employ wti crude oil prices and cleveland financial stress index for the period 1991 2014 and divide the sample into pre crisis in crisis and post crisis periods due to the downward trend in oil price in 2008 the volatility model estimations indicate that oil prices and financial stress index are dominated by long run volatility the volatility spillover causality test supports evidence on risk transfer from oil prices to financial stress before the crisis and from financial stress to oil prices after the crisis the impulse response analysis shows that the volatility transmission pattern has similar dynamics before and after the crisis and is characterized by higher and long lived effects during the crisis our results have implications for both policy makers and investors and for future work

the dynamics of marriage and divorce we formulate and estimate a dynamic model of marriage divorce and remarriage using panel data on two cohorts of danish men and women the marital surplus is identified from the probability of divorce and the surplus shares of husbands and wives from their willingness to enter marriage we find that the educations of husbands and wives are complements education raises the share of the marital surplus for men but not for women as men and women get older husbands receive a larger share of the marital surplus the estimated costs of divorce are high both early and late in marriage

perfect competition in the continuous assignment model abstract this paper provides a rigorous formalization in the context of the transferable utility assignment model of perfect competition as the inability of individuals to favorably influence prices the central tool for the analysis is the social gains function the central issue is differentiability of the gains function with respect to the population seven conditions are shown to be equivalent to perfect competition perfect competition and imperfect competition are possible for both finite and continuum assignment economies but most finite economies are imperfectly competitive while most continuum economies are perfectly competitive however most large finite assignment economies are approximately perfectly competitive journal of economic literature classification numbers c61 c62 c78

marriage and divorce changes and their driving forces the family is not a static institution in recent decades marriage rates have fallen divorce rates have risen and the defining characteristics of marriage have changed the economic approach to the family seeks to explain these trends by reference to models that can also explain how and why families form gary becker s 1981 treatise on the family proposed a theory based on production complementarities in which husband and wife specialize in the market and domestic spheres respectively production complementarities also arise in the production and rearing of one s own children however production complementarities at least as initially described are decreasingly central to modern family life increased longevity and declining fertility mean that most of one s adult life is spent without one s own children in the household also the rise in marital formation at older ages including remarriage means that many families form with no intention of producing children moreover increases in female labor force participation suggest that household specialization has either declined or at least taken on a different meaning these changes have come about as what is produced in the home has been dramatically altered both by the emergence of labor saving technology in the home and by the development of service industries that allow much of what was once provided by specialized homemakers to be purchased in the market the availabil

who marries whom and why this paper proposes and estimates a static transferable utility model of the marriage market the model generates a nonparametric marriage matching function with spillover effects it rationalizes the standard interpretation of marriage rate regressions and points out its limitations the model was used to estimate u s marital behavior in 1971 72 and 1981 82 the marriage matching function estimates show that the gains to marriage for young adults fell substantially over the decade unlike contradictory marriage rate regression results the marriage matching function estimates showed that the legalization of abortion had a significant quantitative impact on the fall in the gains to marriage for young men and women

the progressive inefficiency of replacing renewable obligation certificates with contracts for differences in the uk electricity market abstract this paper looks at the emerging risk return profile for new renewable assets as a conventional wholesale electricity market progressively decarbonises using a detailed fundamental model of price formation risks under increasing replacement of fossil fuel facilities with onshore and offshore wind we show that the risk return profile becomes less attractive over time and may therefore need sustained and possibly increasing policy support furthermore we show that green certificate trading may become progressively more attractive as a supplementary support to wholesale prices compared to fixed feed in tariffs this is because the increasingly negative correlation between renewable output and wholesale prices reduces its revenue risk compared to fixed feed in tariffs if other factors remain constant and thereby improves conventional financial performance risk metrics in particular this suggests that the recent energy policy change in britain to move away from green certificates and into contracts for differences may have been ill founded

a matching model with endogenous skill requirements we consider a labor market in which workers differ in their abilities and jobs differ in their skill requirements the distribution of worker abilities is exogenous but we model the choice of skill requirements by firms high skill jobs produce more output than low skill jobs but high skill jobs require high skill workers and thus are more difficult to fill we use a matching model together with a nash bargaining approach to wage setting to determine the equilibrium mix of job types along with the equilibrium relationship between worker and job characteristics wages and unemployment

what happened to the oil price macroeconomy relationship abstract strong evidence is found that oil prices no longer granger cause many u s macroeconomic indicator variables in data after 1973 a number of potential explanations are explored that sample stability issues are responsible that oil prices are now endogenous and that linear and symmetric specifications misrepresent the form of the oil price interaction none of these hypotheses are supported by the data the opec price increases do appear to have had significant impacts while the effects of the price declines of the 1980s are smaller and harder to characterize these results have potentially important implications for the large body of research which utilizes oil prices as an instrumental or explanatory variable

financialization fundamentals and the time varying determinants of us natural gas prices abstract increasing empirical evidence shows that natural gas prices have decoupled from oil prices yet there remains an open question as to what are the determining factors of natural gas prices following the demise of oil indexation this paper aims to address this question using a dynamic model averaging dma approach dma can help identify key important price determinants and importantly does so within a time varying framework allowing us to document how the set of determinants has evolved in response to key market changes using time series data between 2001 and 2018 we demonstrate a clear declining role of oil prices in the natural gas pricing mechanism verifying the demise of indexation market or fundamental factors such as weather demand and supply conditions have at the same time become more important in addition our results illustrate an increasing role from financial markets captured by speculation related variables providing empirical evidence to support the recent literature on commodity market financialization the rising impact of speculation to natural gas prices introduces questions over how to balance market efficiency and risk management in the post indexation regime

trade linkages and transmission of oil price fluctuations abstract this study is an attempt to ascertain how oil price shock can affect a trade linked system via monetary variables to this end a simultaneous equation model sem was applied through a weighted two stage least squares w2sls estimation method to different countries 21 cases with business relations over the period from q1 2000 to q4 2015 in the case of oil exporting countries consisting of iran russian federation uae indonesia and kazakhstan the findings revealed that they totally benefit from oil price increases in the case of oil importing countries the effects are more diverse to derive a better interpretation we divided them into four groups european union eu members germany italy the netherlands and poland east asian nations japan people s republic of china republic of korea viet nam taipei china singapore and hong kong china commonwealth of independent states cis ukraine and belarus and others the united states india and turkey the results showed that all these countries importing oil face a negative supply shock except turkey which benefits directly from an oil price shock furthermore the indirect effect coefficient received through trade for all these countries was positive

collective labor supply and welfare the paper develops a general collective model of household labor supply in which agents are characterized by their own possibly altruistic preferences and household decisions are only assumed to be pareto efficient an alternative interpretation is that there are two stages in the internal decision process agents first share nonlabor income according to some given sharing rule then each one optimally chooses his or her own labor supply and consumption this setting is shown to generate testable restrictions on labor supplies moreover the observation of labor supply behavior is sufficient for recovering individual preferences and the sharing rule up to a constant finally the traditional tools of welfare analysis can be adapted to the new setting

this is what happened to the oil price macroeconomy relationship abstract many of the quarterly oil price increases observed since 1985 are corrections to even bigger oil price decreases the previous quarter when one looks at the net increase in oil prices over the year recent data are consistent with the historical correlation between oil shocks and recessions

on the dynamic links between commodities and islamic equity abstract this paper investigates whether commodities offer potential diversification benefits for islamic equity index investors in light of possible financialization of commodity markets using mgarch dcc and wavelet coherence analyses our findings reveal that correlations between commodity markets and the dow jones islamic market world index are time varying and highly volatile throughout the january 1999 april 2015 period a substantial and persistent increase was observed in the return correlations between commodities and islamic equity at the onset of the 2008 financial crisis however trends in the recent two years suggest that this association is heading towards its pre crisis levels offering again diversification benefits for islamic equity holders these benefits vary across different commodities in various time scales overall gold natural gas soft commodities grains and livestock are better portfolio diversifiers than oil and other metals relative to medium to long term investors short term investors less than 32 days horizon gained better diversification benefits in most commodities during bullish bearish and market recovery periods these findings have implications for investors who are heterogeneous in risk tolerance and time preference as well as for policymakers who are concerned with market stability

impact of oil price shocks on selected macroeconomic variables in nigeria abstract the impact of oil price shocks on the macroeconomy has received a great deal of attention since the 1970 s initially many empirical studies found a significant negative effect between oil price shocks and gdp but more recently empirical studies have reported an insignificant relationship between oil shocks and the macroeconomy a key feature of existing research is that it applies predominantly to advanced oil importing countries for oil exporting countries different conclusions are expected but this can only be ascertained empirically this study conducts an empirical analysis of the effects of oil price shocks on a developing country oil exporter nigeria our findings showed that oil price shocks do not have a major impact on most macroeconomic variables in nigeria the results of the granger causality tests impulse response functions and variance decomposition analysis all showed that different measures of linear and positive oil shocks have not caused output government expenditure inflation and the real exchange rate the tests support the existence of asymmetric effects of oil price shocks because we find that negative oil shocks significantly cause output and the real exchange rate

specifying a structural matching game of trading networks with transferable utility structural estimation of matching games with transferable utility including matching games of trading networks and many to many matching is increasingly popular in empirical work i explore several modeling decisions that need to be made when specifying a structural model for a matching game one decision is the choice of a game theoretic solution concept to impose in the structural model i discuss pairwise stability competitive equilibrium and noncooperative games such as auctions another decision is whether to work with a continuum of agents or a finite number of agents i explore other issues as well

exogenous oil supply shocks how big are they and how much do they matter for the u s economy abstract the paper proposes a new measure of exogenous oil supply shocks the timing the magnitude and the sign of this measure may differ greatly from current state of the art estimates it is shown that only a small fraction of the observed oil price increases during oil crisis periods can be attributed to exogenous oil production disruptions exogenous oil supply shocks cause a sharp drop of u s real gdp growth after five quarters rather than an immediate and sustained reduction in economic growth and a spike in cpi inflation after three quarters overall exogenous oil supply shocks made remarkably little difference for the evolution of the u s economy since the 1970s although they did matter for some historical episodes

impact of oil price shocks on output inflation and the real exchange rate evidence from selected asean countries this article analyses the impact of oil price shocks on real output inflation and the real exchange rate in thailand malaysia singapore the philippines and indonesia asean 5 using a structural var model the cointegration tests indicate that the macroeconomic variables of these countries are cointegrated and share common trends in the long run the impulse response functions reveal that oil price fluctuations do not impact the asean 5 economies in the long run and much of its effect is absorbed within five to six quarters the variance decomposition results further assert that with a few exceptions oil price shocks do not explain a significant variation in any of the variables under consideration we also identify a very unique pattern of response to oil price fluctuations between malaysia and singapore and between the philippines and thailand the pairs exhibit a high degree of similarity in their responses they do not share any commonalities across the group

oil prices stock markets and portfolio investment evidence from sector analysis in europe over the last decade this article extends the understanding of oil stock market relationships over the last turbulent decade unlike previous empirical investigations which have largely focused on broad based market indices national and or regional indices we examine short term linkages in the aggregate as well as sector by sector levels in europe using different econometric techniques our main findings suggest that the reactions of stock returns to oil price changes differ greatly depending on the activity sector in the out of sample analysis we show that introducing oil asset into a diversified portfolio of stocks allows to significantly improve its risk return characteristics

the dynamic causality between commodity prices inflation and output in china a bootstrap rolling window approach in this article we empirically study the time varying bilateral causality between commodity prices inflation and output in china we first perform a series of parameter stability tests and find s

excess worker reallocation workers face a trade off between macroeconomic and individual incentives to work in different occupations industries namely between search frictions and personal comparative advantages workers endowed with heterogeneous multi dimensional skills search for jobs that require different skill combinations in equilibrium specialized individuals contact few selected types of vacancies where they are likely to be hired those with weak comparative advantages are seldom chosen among competing applicants thus seek any job type in a tight labour market comparative advantages dominate waiting costs offsetting labour mobility across industries occupations excess worker reallocation is lower and matches are more successful consistently with direct and indirect evidence

the assignment of workers to jobs in an economy with coordination frictions this paper studies the assignment of heterogeneous workers to heterogeneous jobs owing to the anonymity of a large labor market workers use mixed strategies when applying for jobs this randomness generates coordination frictions two workers may apply for a particular job whereas an identical job gets no applications the model generates assortative matching with a positive but imperfect correlation between matched workers and firms types it predicts that a worker s wage is increasing in her job s productivity and a firm s profit is increasing in its employees productivity the model also yields a version of the welfare theorems

cross border marriage costs and marriage behavior theory and evidence this article analyzes cross border marriages between mainland china and hong kong hk we examine the effects of a reduction in cross border marriage costs following an increase in marriage migration quotas and the handover of hk to china we find that cross border marriages mainly involve men from the low tail of the hk attribute distribution we also find that hk women s position in the marriage market and within households deteriorated following the reduction in cross border marriage costs and that their disadvantaged position exerts an incentive effect on their labor market behavior these outcomes are consistent with our matching model

long term partnership formation marriage and employment of course marriage and employment are different nevertheless a worker looking for a job a rm looking for worker or a single person looking for a marriage partner face similar problems as all are seeking a long term partner indeed forming long term partnerships is a common occurrence in life there are many other examples business people search for other business people to form a pro table relationship bridge players seek to nd a suitable partners students search for a good university we would all like to nd a good friend etc the problem becomes signi cant if there are substantial differences in the return obtained from forming a partnership with different partners for example employers differ in the wages they offer or in the work environment they provide in such a situation a worker may reject some job offers similarly as many have learned to their cost some make better marriage partners than others the problem is two sided while a worker is evaluating a potential employer the employer is also evaluating the worker it is this two sided aspect of the problem that generates a signi cant interest a worker s willingness to accept employment at a rm depends not only on the characteristics of the rm but also the other possible options open to the worker the better an individual s opportunities elsewhere the more selective he or she will be in evaluating a potential partnership an academic who believes harvard may make an offer in the near future will be more selective in evaluating offers from lesser universities in this way expectations play a role if a single man believes that few if any women will nd him an acceptable marriage partner then he may accept the rst opportunity that presents itself partnership formation typically does not comply with a classic market situation where all participants know everything and all trades take place at zero cost finding a job nding a husband or wife or nding a business partner is a time consuming activity where opportunities typically arrive over time at uncertain intervals of time of course we can act in ways that in uence the arrival rate of potential partner workers go to employment agencies or read help wanted advertisements in newspapers singles of a certain age go to discos or join tennis clubs the literature on search and matching sm see mortensen 1982 and pissarides 1990 for early examples 1 provides an excellent framework for the economic journal 109 june f307 f334 royal economic society 1999 published by blackwell publishers 108 cowley road oxford ox4 1jf uk and 350 main street malden ma 02148 usa

modelling systemic risk and dependence structure between the prices of crude oil and exchange rates in brics economies evidence using quantile coherency and ngcovar approaches abstract in this study we examine the dependence structure and systemic risk between return series of the prices of crude oil and the brics exchange rates to us using the quantile coherency methods of barunik and kley 2015 and the nonparametric conditional value at risk granger causality test hereafter ngcovar of diks and wolski 2018 over the period 2005 2017 further we use the hiemstra and jones 1994 hereafter hj and diks and panchenko 2005 hereafter dp tests for comparison purposes our findings indicate that all countries reveal significant negative dependence in the long run dynamics between oil prices and brazilian indian and south african currencies hj and dp tests suggest that lagged crude oil prices have predictive power for the brazilian and russian exchange rates furthermore a robust unidirectional lagged dependence exists from the brazilian exchange rate to crude oil prices concerning the chinese indian and south african currencies we find no contagion effects from to those countries to the oil market for russia there is limited evidence of contagion effects these findings provide insights for regulators and international investors

differntial fecundity markets and gender roles women are fecund for a shorter period of their lives than men this paper investigates how differential fecundity interacts with marriage labor and financial markets to affect gender roles the main findings of the paper are as follows i fecund women are relatively scarce men will behave differently than women in response to this scarcity in the most fundamental way demand and supply conditions in the marriage market affect gender roles ii differential fecundity does not have any market invariant gender effect gender roles depend on the way in which marriage labor and financial markets interact iii gender differences in the labor market can occur without corresponding differences in labor market opportunities productivities in child rearing or social norms iv with uncertainty in human capital accumulation and no insurance against this uncertainty the model s predictions are consistent with observed gender roles

understanding volatility dynamics in the eu ets market abstract we study the short term price behavior of phase 2 eu emission allowances we model returns and volatility dynamics and we demonstrate that a standard armax garch framework is inadequate for this modeling and that the gaussianity assumption is rejected due to a number of outliers to improve the fitness of the model we combine the underlying price process with an additive stochastic jump process we improve the model s performance by introducing a time varying jump probability that is explained by two variables the daily relative change in the volume of transactions and the european commission s announcements regarding the supply of permits we show that i sharp increases in volume have led to increased volatility during the april 2005 december 2007 period but not for the period beginning in january 2008 and ii announcements induce jumps in the process that tend to increase volatility across both periods thus authorities face a trade off between disseminating information effectively and promoting market stability

directed search on the job heterogeneity and aggregate fluctuations we study a labor market where workers search for jobs both on the job and off the job in the model there are aggregate productivity shocks and match specific shocks we outline the proof of existence of an equilibrium which we call a block recursive equilibrium bre in which individuals decisions and market tightness are independent of the distribution of workers over wages or contracts a critical assumption that is responsible for a bre to exist is that search is directed by firms posting of contracts we explain why a bre does exist under the assumption of directed search and why it does not under the assumption of random search finally we generalize the proof of existence of a bre to allow workers to be ex ante heterogeneous with respect to some observable characteristics such as education and skill this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

further evidence on the debate of oil gas price decoupling a long memory approach abstract the long run oil gas price relationship has been challenged more often in recent years as these two prices have shown evidence of decoupling from each other this paper proposes the use of a long memory approach and a rolling windows method to model the time varying oil gas price relationship in three markets namely the united states europe and japan the results extend existing research conclusions on the oil gas price relationship and answer the question of whether it is a temporary phenomenon or a permanent market change our findings indicate that the us oil gas relationship remains nonstationary at almost all windows and illustrate strong evidence of decoupling conversely the european and asian oil gas prices exhibit temporary decoupling over time although the overall relationship still favours the oil indexation hypothesis the us experience suggests that oil and gas do not share the same fundamentals and a pricing hub can better reflect the true value of natural gas policy makers in europe and asia should reinforce their efforts towards a market based pricing mechanism for gas

investing in finite life carbon emissions reduction program under risk and idiosyncratic uncertainty this paper aims at emphasizing the ability of new frameworks of real option model to highlight key characteristics of industrial carbon emissions reduction program investment decision we develop both theoretical arguments and numerical simulations with structural parameters calibrated on real life data we find that both radical uncertainty and risk lead to speed up green investments compared to the predictions of real option models that are normally used in green investment literature the conventional wait and see attitude questioned in recent developments of the real option theory is not validated in conclusion our results should foster companies to implement green investments and help governments to define appropriate incentives to encourage green investments of particular note the paper highlights that finance theory is not necessarily an obstacle to green investment decisions

on the path of integration in the gulf region it is examined whether the six countries comprising the gulf cooperation council gcc are sufficiently compatible to form a viable economic and financial block in the gulf region despite long and numerous governmental attempts since the mid 1980s and in spite of public pressures to expedite the process these countries have thus far failed to achieve full economic and financial integration empirical evidence suggests that this apparent failure is unlikely the outcome of economic or financial incompatibility among the countries in the region the results imply that more efforts should be directed at resolving possible sociopolitical differences that may have hampered real progress toward the emergence of a genuine and effective bloc in the gulf region

dynamic marriage matching an empirical framework the paper proposes a dynamic version of the frictionless becker shapley shubik marriage matching model with transferable utility its primary objective is to develop a tractable model that rationalizes the marriage distribution of who marries whom by age this behavioral dynamic model rationalizes a new marriage matching function an empirical methodology that relies on the equilibrium outcomes of the model identies the marital preferences over spouses this framework also allows the inverse problem of computing the vector of aggregate marriages given a new distribution of available single individuals and estimated preferences to be solved the solution to this inverse problem has been shown to exist under mild conditions this paper also develops a simple test of the model s empirical validity using aggregate data of new marriages and available single men and women in the us in 1970 1980 and 1990 i investigate the changes in the gains to marriage over this period

on the state of the union an overlapping generations model of marriage and divorce is constructed to analyze family structure and intergenerational mobility agents differ by sex marital status and human capital single agents meet in a marriage market and decide whether to accept or reject proposals to wed married couples must decide whether to separate or not parents invest in their children depending on their wherewithal a simulated version of the theoretical prototype can generate an equilibrium with a significant number of female headed families and a high degree of persistence in income across generations to illustrate the model s mechanics the effects of two antipoverty policies namely child support and welfare are investigated

how oil prices affect east and southeast asian economies evidence from financial markets and implications for energy security abstract oil prices have been volatile to investigate how oil price swings affect asian economies this paper examines how they affect industry and aggregate stock returns economic theory implies that there is a strong link between a sector s stock return and its economic activity evidence presented here indicates that sectors such as airlines food and industrial transportation are harmed by oil price increases and that sectors such as oil and gas production and exploration benefit the findings also reveal that many industries within each country are impacted by oil prices the paper concludes by offering several suggestions to help asian economies weather the effects of oil price changes and increase energy security

the determinants of equilibrium unemployment the paper takes the search and matching model of the aggregate labor market to the data it tests the model s empirical validity and employs structural estimation to generate a characterization of the optimal behavior of firms and workers the model is applied to israeli data that are uniquely suited for this kind of empirical investigation the structural estimates are used to quantify the frictions embodied in the model including the costs of search the congestion and trading externality effects and the matching process a calibration simulation analysis then studies the effect of several key variables on equilibrium unemployment

dynamic spillovers among major energy and cereal commodity prices abstract over the past decade the sharp increases in the prices of oil and agricultural commodities have raised serious concerns about the heightened volatility of these markets and the possible negative interactions between them this article deals with the dynamic return and volatility spillovers across international energy and cereal commodity markets it also examines the impacts of three types of opec news announcements on the volatility spillovers and persistence in these markets for this purpose we make use of the var bekk garch and var dcc garch models for the daily spot prices of eight major commodities including wti oil europe brent oil gasoline heating oil barley corn sorghum and wheat our results provide evidence of significant linkages between these energy and cereal markets moreover the opec news announcements are found to exert influence on the oil markets as well as on the oil cereal relationships finally we show that the persistence of volatility decreases increases for the crude oil and heating oil gasoline returns after accounting for the opec announcements in these multivariate garch models however the results are more mixed for the cereal markets overall our results can be used to improve the risk adjusted performance by having more diversified portfolios and also serve to hedge the oil risk more effectively

energy and food security linkages through price volatility abstract this study examines the linkages between energy price and food prices over the period 2000 2016 by using a panel var model in the case of eight asian economies our results confirm that energy price oil price has a significant impact on food prices according to the results of impulse response functions agricultural food prices respond positively to any shock from oil prices our results show that there is a linkage between energy and food security through price volatility since inflation in oil price is harmful for food security it would be necessary to diversify the energy consumption in this sector from too much reliance on fossil fuels to an optimal combination of renewable and nonrenewable energy resources that will be in favor of not only the energy security by also the food security in addition the paper found that the impact of biofuel prices on food prices is statistically significant but explains less than 2 of the food price variance however by increasing the demand for biofuel there should be more concern about the global increase in agricultural commodities prices and endangering food security especially in vulnerable economies

an empirical model of the medical match abstract this paper develops a framework for estimating preferences in a many to one matching market using only observed matches i use pairwise stability and a vertical preference restriction on one side to identify preferences on both sides of the market counterfactual simulations are used to analyze the antitrust allegation that the centralized medical residency match is responsible for salary depression due to residents willingness to pay for desirable programs and capacity constraints salaries in any competitive equilibrium would remain on average at least 23 000 below the marginal product of labor therefore the match is not the likely cause of low salaries jel c78 i11 j31 j44 k21 l44