the persistence of female labor supply empirical evidence and implications previous research has shown that female hours of work are very persistent over women s lifetimes that women tend to be either workers or nonworkers this paper uses psid data from 1967 to 1987 to examine changes in persistence over time the overall finding is that there is little change in persistence because as women entered the labor force in greater numbers they tended to become continuous workers replacing continuous nonworkers among older women spells of reduced hours are now less prolonged holding constant a fixed effect among young women the persistence of hours has increased slightly over time and patterns of employment now appear to develop prior to marriage and continue into the married years

the new economics of teachers and education rapidly growing costs of elementary and secondary education are studied in the context of the rising value of women s time the dramatic increase in direct costs of education per student in the past 3 decades is empirically linked to increasing demand and utilization of teacher and staff inputs attributable to growing market opportunities for women and changes in the structure of families on the supply side the flexibility option that female teachers who take temporary leaves do not suffer subsequent wage loss upon reentry is shown to be an important attraction of the teaching profession to women

occupational self selection a human capital approach to sex differences in occupational structure a rich and diverse literature exists concerning the distribution of labor incomes one approach namely that of human capital concentrates on lifetime accumulation paths of earnings capacity units human capital individual variations in human capital imply differences in earnings power thereby yielding strong implications concerning earnings distribution within a population despite its explanatory power the human capital model has been widely criticized one criticism centers on its inability to obtain inferences concerning occupational distribution the purpose of this paper is to alleviate at least some such criticism by applying the hedonic price approach so as to embed occupational choice into the human capital framework the significance is that neoclassical economic theory can be used to obtain implications concerning the determinants of occupational structure excerpt

interrupted work careers depreciation and restoration of human capital the quantitative effects and even the existence of a human capital depreciation phenomenon have been a subject of controversy in the recent literature prior work however was largely cross sectional and the longitudinal dimension if any was retrospective using longitudinal panel data on married women in nls we have now established that real wages at reentry are indeed lower than at the point of labor force withdrawal and the decline in wages is greater the longer the interruption another striking finding is a relatively rapid growth in wages after the return to work this rapid growth appears to reflect the restoration or repair of previously eroded human capital the phenomenon of depreciation and restoration is also visible in data for immigrants to the united states however while immigrants eventually catch up with and often surpass natives returnees from the nonmarket do not fully restore their earnings potential

universal basic income a viable policy alternative although the need for an efficient roma integration policy is growing in europe surprisingly little robust scientific evidence regarding potential policy costs and expected benefits of alternative policy options has supported the policy design and implementation so far the present study attempts to narrow this evidence gap and aims to shed light on long run economic budgetary and fiscal effects of selected education and employment policies for the inclusion of the marginalised roma in the eu we employ a general equilibrium approach that allows us to assess not only the direct impact of alternative roma integration policies but also to capture all induced feedback effects our simulation results suggest that although roma integration policies would be costly for the public budget in the medium to long run economic budgetary and fiscal benefits may significantly outweigh short to medium run roma integration costs depending on the integration policy scenario and the analysed country the full repayment of the integration policy investment positive net present value may be achieved after 7 to 9 years in terms of the gdp employment and earnings the universal basic income scenario may have the highest potential impacts particularly in the medium to long run

oil price shocks economic policy uncertainty and industry stock returns in china asymmetric effects with quantile regression abstract this paper investigates the impact of crude oil shocks and china s economic policy uncertainty on stock returns at different locations on the return distributions based on monthly data from 1995 1 to 2016 3 we address this issue by employing the quantile regression technique this approach enables a more detailed investigation in different market circumstances namely bearish normal and bullish markets empirical results indicate that the effects of oil price shocks and economic policy uncertainty are asymmetric and highly related to stock market conditions moreover both the nexus of oil and economic policy uncertainty stock are changed at the onset of a crisis specially rising oil prices have greater negative effects on stock returns when stock markets are bullish extreme higher quantiles before a crisis whereas the effects are significantly positive under different market conditions after the onset of the crisis falling oil prices lower stock returns when stock markets are bullish and normal before the crisis whereas lower stock returns under different market conditions except extreme bullish after the onset of the crisis these findings might be related to the optimistic or pessimistic investor sentiments and investors might become more frightened after the crisis

index investment and the financialization of commodities the authors found that concurrent with the rapidly growing index investment in commodity markets since the early 2000s prices of non energy commodity futures in the united states have become increasingly correlated with oil prices this trend has been significantly more pronounced for commodities in two popular commodity indices this finding reflects the financialization of the commodity markets and helps explain the large increase in the price volatility of non energy commodities around 2008

does economic policy uncertainty matter for commodity market in china evidence from quantile regression this paper investigates the effect of economic policy uncertainty epu on china s agricultural and metal commodity futures returns across quantiles we address this issue using the panel quantile

on the dynamic dependence between equity markets commodity futures and economic uncertainty indexes this paper provides a thorough analysis on multiscale dependence schemes between equity markets commodity futures and uncertainty indexes based on decomposed return series we provide an exhausti

symposium on primary and secondary education this article introduces the symposium on primary and secondary education it points out that considerable controversy surrounds the issues treated by the articles in the symposium the effect of the level of resources invested in education on student outcomes and the educational financing structure that would optimize desirable outcomes of the system including allocative and productive efficiency and equity given rising wage inequality in the labor market associated with increasing demands for skill concerns over slow u s productivity growth and burgeoning public school enrollments resolving these issues has become increasingly important

common dynamics of nonenergy commodity prices and their relation to uncertainty the purpose of this article is to improve the empirical evidence on commodity prices in various dimensions first we attempt to identify the extent of comovements in 44 monthly nonenergy commodity price series in order to ascertain whether the increase in comovement is a recent term phenomenon second we attempt to determine the role of uncertainty in determining comovements among nonenergy prices in the short run we diagnose the overall comovement using a dynamic factor model estimated by principal components a factor augmented vector autoregressive approach is used to assess the relationship of fundamentals financial and uncertainty variables with the comovement in commodity prices we find a greater synchronization among raw materials since december 2003 since that date uncertainty has played an important role in determining short run fluctuations in nonenergy raw material prices

from mill town to board room the rise of women s paid labor the widespread participation of women in paid labor outside of the home and in the highest echelons of society would have been unheard of a century ago this paper documents this dramatic change in women s social and economic status and argues that it was determined both by contemporaneous demand factors and by the characteristics expectations and social norms regarding work and family of different cohorts of women history suggests that change in women s labor force experiences may be slow because it must await the entry of new cohorts of women and also of men into the labor market

the economics of teacher quality abstract concern is often voiced about the quality of american schoolteachers this paper suggests that while the relative quality of teachers is declining this decline may be the result of technological changes that have raised the price of skilled workers outside teaching without affecting the productivity of skilled teachers growth in the price of skilled workers can cause schools to lower the relative quality of teachers and raise teacher quantity instead evidence from the national longitudinal survey of youth demonstrates that wage and schooling are good measures of teacher quality analysis of u s census microdata then reveals that the relative schooling and experience adjusted relative wages of u s schoolteachers have fallen significantly from 1940 to 1990 moreover class sizes have also fallen substantially the declines in class size and in relative quality seem correlated over time and space with growth in the relative price of skilled workers

do dropouts drop out too soon wealth health and happiness from compulsory schooling abstract this paper uses compulsory schooling laws to evaluate high school dropout decisions the main empirical result is that lifetime wealth increases by about 15 with an extra year of compulsory schooling students compelled to stay in school are also less likely to report being in poor health unemployed and unhappy the main conclusion is that high school aversion alone is unlikely to explain why dropouts forgo substantial gains to lifetime wealth the results are more consistent with the possibility that adolescents ignore or heavily discount future consequences when deciding to drop out of school if teenagers are myopic making school compulsory or offering incentives to stay in school may help improve lifetime outcomes

global oil prices macroeconomic fundamentals and china s commodity sector comovements abstract this paper investigates the common movements of commodity sectors in china as well as the economic underpinnings of the comovements we employ a bayesian dynamic latent factor model to disentangle the common and idiosyncratic sector specific factors of the prices of a group of china s commodity sectors petrochemicals grains energy non ferrous metals oils fats and softs the results indicate that the common factor accounts for a significant portion of the fluctuations of china s commodity sectors providing evidence of the strong commodity sector comovements in china we further use a var model to link the common movements across china s commodity sectors to the underlying determinants including global oil price shocks and domestic macroeconomic fluctuations we find that the global oil price shocks have strong effects on the common movements across commodity sectors in china in addition to its domestic macroeconomic fluctuations at long horizons however at short horizons the common movements across commodity sectors in china respond more strongly to the global oil shocks than to its domestic macroeconomic fluctuations

economic policy uncertainty shocks and stock bond correlations evidence from the us market abstract this paper examines the effects of economic policy uncertainty shocks on stock bond correlations for the us market we devise a general framework which distinguishes a positive shock from a negative one and nests either as its special case the results show that innovations in the policy uncertainty index impact negatively and asymmetrically on the subsequent stock bond correlations which are characterized by a structural break and positive type asymmetry

worker sorting and the risk of death on the job this article examines worker sorting across occupations in response to the risk of death on the job we use family structure as a proxy for willingness to trade safety for wages to test the proposition that workers with strong aversion to this risk sort into safer jobs we estimate conditional logit models of occupation choice as a function of injury risk and other job attributes our results confirm the sorting hypothesis within gender single moms and dads are the most averse to risk overall differences in the risk of death across occupations explain about one quarter of occupational gender segregation

how does economic policy uncertainty drive gold stock correlations evidence from the uk abstractin this article we investigate the effects of economic policy uncertainty epu on correlations between the uk stock market and gold market we find that less certain economic policies result in lower correlations while more certain economic policies result in higher correlations the correlations are symmetric and show no structural breaks caused by the recent financial crisis the recent financial crisis has not changed epu effects on the correlations the effects of one positive one standard deviation shock of the logarithmic change rate of the epu on the correlations last approximately 19 months

understanding the twentieth century growth in u s school spending persistent increases in spending on elementary and secondary schools have gone virtually undocumented real expenditure per student increased 3 percent per year over the period 1890 1990 decomposition of the spending growth shows that it resulted from a combination of falling pupil staff ratios increasing real wages to teachers and rising expenditure outside of the classroom although the expansion of education for the handicapped has had a disproportionate effect on spending most of the growth in expenditure during the 1980s came from other sources significant teacher salary increases particularly for females have failed to keep up with wages in other occupations

examining the link between teacher wages and student outcomes the importance of alternative labor market opportunities and non pecuniary variation researchers using cross sectional data have failed to produce systematic evidence that teacher salaries affect student outcomes these studies generally do not account for non pecuniary job attribu

work environment and opt out rates at motherhood across high education career paths observing a sample of harvard alumnae in their late thirties the authors study the relationship between workplace flexibility and the labor force participation of mothers they first document a large variation in labor force participation rates across higher education fields mindful of the possibility of systematic patterns in the types of women who complete various graduate degrees they use the rich information available for the sample supplemented by the longitudinal nature of a subset of these data to assess the extent to which these labor supply patterns may reflect variation in the difficulty of combining work with family although ruling out systematic sorting entirely is not possible their evidence suggests that inflexible work environments push women out of the labor force at motherhood

do alternative opportunities matter the role of female labor markets in the decline of teacher quality abstract this paper documents the widely perceived but little investigated notion that teachers today are less qualified than they once were evidence of a marked decline in the quality of young women going into teaching between 1960 and 1990 is presented using standardized test scores undergraduate institution selectivity and positive assortative mating characteristics as indicators of quality in contrast the quality of young women becoming professionals increased the roy model of self selection highlights how occupational differences in the returns to skill determine teacher quality estimates suggest the significance of increasing professional opportunities for women in affecting the decline in teacher quality

macroeconomic uncertainty cultural traits and entrepreneurship the relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty and entrepreneurial activities has been the subject of intense debate among researchers however existing empirical studies report mixed findings

power couples changes in the locational choice of the college educated 1940 1990 college educated couples are increasingly located in large metropolitan areas these areas were home to 32 percent of all college educated couples in 1940 39 percent in 1970 and 50 percent in 1990 we investigate whether this trend can be explained by increasing urbanization of the college educated or the growth of dual career households and the resulting severity of the colocation problem we argue that the latter explanation is the primary one smaller cities may therefore experience reduced inflows of human capital relative to the past and thus become poorer

why has the number of teachers per student risen while teacher quality has declined abstract since 1970 the number of teachers per student rose while teacher quality apparently eroded a model of school and voter decisions shows that an increase in the skill price for women may induce schools to hire additional teachers rather than better quality teachers estimation results indicate that the price of skill and alternative wage had offsetting effects on the teacher pupil ratio increased demand for education therefore resulted in larger teacher student ratios in contrast both the skill price and the alternative wage reduced teacher quality increased demand for education did not outweigh the combined price effect and teacher quality fell

the long run impact of cash transfers to poor families lleras muney we estimate the long run impact of cash transfers to poor families on children s longevity educational attainment nutritional status and income in adulthood to do so we collected individual level administrative records of applicants to the mothers pension program the first government sponsored welfare program in the united states 1911 1935 and matched them to census wwii and death records male children of accepted applicants lived one year longer than those of rejected mothers they also obtained onethird more years of schooling were less likely to be underweight and had higher income in adulthood than children of rejected mothers jel i12 i14 i18 i32 i38 j16 n32

if you pay peanuts do you get monkeys a cross country analysis of teacher pay and pupil performance why are teachers paid up to four times as much in some countries compared to others and does it matter specifically is the quality of teachers likely to be higher if they are paid higher up the income distribution in their own country and are pupil outcomes influenced by how well their teachers are paid this paper considers the determinants of teachers salaries across countries and examines the relationship between the real and relative level of teacher remuneration and the internationally comparable measured performance of secondary school pupils we use aggregate panel data on 39 countries published by the oecd to model this association our results suggest that recruiting higher ability individuals into teaching and permitting scope for quicker salary advancement will have a positive effect on pupil outcomes

macroeconomic policy uncertainty shocks on the chinese economy a gvar analysis abstractthis article studies the spillovers of economic policy uncertainty epu from developed economies to china in terms of the source extent and persistence by estimating a global vector autoregressive gvar model with both financial and trade variables acting as the transmission channels our findings confirm the existence of international transmissions of policy uncertainty while the patterns differ markedly the us epu appears to be the most significant cause of the fall of export industrial production equity price and exchange rate meanwhile the eu epu is also to be blamed for the depreciation of rmb in contrast to industrial production which shows the largest negative impact chinese inflation increases to a relatively smaller extent with the epu shocks ranking as the us japanese and the eu regardless of the minor impact on a long term interest rate the short term interest rate in china reacts positively to the european and us epu shocks despite the independent national monetary poli

the dynamics of teacher quality abstract an extensive literature finds that while teachers vary considerably in initial quality there are limited teacher quality dynamics except for the first few years of teaching teacher quality does not improve over the course of a teacher s career this study evaluates the importance of various modeling restrictions to the key findings of this literature using data covering all 5th grade public school teachers from the state of north carolina i replicate the findings of the previous literature using their restrictive experience assumptions however using an unrestricted experience model i find that for mathematics achievement there are high returns to later career teaching experience about twice as much dispersion in initial teacher quality as previously estimated and a pattern of negative selection where high quality teachers are more likely to exit

recruiting and retaining teachers in the uk an analysis of graduate occupation choice from the 1960s to the 1990s this paper examines the market for teachers in the uk from 1960 to 2002 using six graduate cohort data sets we find that while there is no strong evidence that teachers are underpaid the relative wages in teaching compared with alternative professions have a significant impact on the likelihood of graduates choosing to teach this wage effect is strongest at times of low relative teachers wages or following a period of decline in those wages it is also strongest for those individuals who have more recently graduated and for men

on the rate of return to schooling quality empirical evaluation of the effect of school quality or type and amount of resources per student on adult earnings requires a conceptual framework a model of the returns to schooling in a simple human capital growth context is extended to illustrate how factors such as consumption benefits of students parental concern over equity between siblings and use of schools to facilitate parental labor supply can alter the apparent return to school quality the need for microlevel time diary and other data on human capital formation in both classrooms and families is highlighted copyright 1996 by mit press

asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks on energy returns and volatility under different market conditions abstract based on daily data from 28 june 1990 to 31 october 2018 we investigate the asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks on energy crude oil gas and heating oil returns and volatility under different market conditions by using a quantile regression model the results show that geopolitical risks have significantly negative effects on crude oil returns in the bearish market and on heating oil returns in the normal and bullish markets but have no effects on gas returns meanwhile the impacts of geopolitical risks on crude oil volatility are significantly positive in different market conditions and the impacts on gas and heating oil volatility are mainly negative but not significant in addition we further divide geopolitical risks into geopolitical threats and geopolitical acts and find that geopolitical threats and acts have heterogeneous effects on energy returns and volatility