operating flexibility global manufacturing and the option value of a multinational network the multinational corporation is a network of activities located in different countries the value of this network derives from the opportunity to benefit from uncertainty through the coordination of subsidiaries which are geographically dispersed we model this coordination as the operating flexibility to shift production between two manufacturing plants located in different countries a stochastic dynamic programming model treats explicitly this flexibility as equivalent to owning an option the value of which is dependent upon the real exchange rate the model is extended to analyze hysteresis effects and within country growth options we show that the management of across border coordination has led to changes in the heuristic rules used for performance evaluation and transfer pricing

paradigms and politics the cultural construction of environmental policy in ethiopia abstract in the wake of the 1985 famine the ethiopian government launched an ambitious program of environmental reclamation supported by donors and nongovernment organizations and backed by the largest food for work program in africa in retrospect it is clear that much of this effort was wasted or counterproductive while many factors contributed to the reclamation program s poor performance this essay is primarily concerned with the role of a neo malthusian environmental policy narrative that was used by government and donors alike to justify the rapid massive and widespread use of standardized environmental management packages without research on their environmental impact or their economic costs and benefits understanding the context in which this happened is important for key elements of the narrative still inform thinking and planning in ethiopia there is mounting evidence that the use of narratives in this type in environmental management programs and more generally in many other types of development planning is widespread and costly

the determinants of mortality mortality rates have fallen dramatically over time starting in a few countries in the 18th century and continuing to fall today in just the past century life expectancy has increased by over 30 years at the same time mortality rates remain much higher in poor countries with a difference in life expectancy between rich and poor countries of also about 30 years this difference persists despite the remarkable progress in health improvement in the last half century at least until the hiv aids pandemic in both the time series and the cross section data there is a strong correlation between income per capita and mortality rates a correlation that also exists within countries where richer better educated people live longer we review the determinants of these patterns over history over countries and across groups within countries while there is no consensus about the causal mechanisms we tentatively identify the application of scientific advance and technical progress some of which is induced by income and facilitated by education as the ultimate determinant of health such an explanation allows a consistent interpretation of the historical cross country and within country evidence we downplay direct causal mechanisms running from income to health

population aging in healthcare a minor issue evidence from switzerland our study shows that population aging substantially affects healthcare expenditure hce this conclusion supports the popular but recently strongly contested view that the coming population aging will threaten the fiscal sustainability of health systems we contribute to this debate first by estimating the determinants of swiss healthcare expenditure hce with outlier robust dynamic regressions and second by projecting swiss hce based on the estimates produced and new population scenarios medical advances and gdp per capita also play a decisive role governments can mitigate hce growth by improving the health status of the population and by stimulating cost effective and productive medical advances

an intertemporal general equilibrium model of asset prices this paper develops a continuous time general equilibrium model of a simple but complete economy and uses it to examine the behavior of asset prices in this model asset prices and their stochastic properties are determined endogenously one principal result is a partial differential equation which asset prices must satisfy the solution of this equation gives the equilibrium price of any asset in terms of the underlying real variables in the economy in this paper we develop a general equilibrium asset pricing model for use in applied research an important feature of the model is its integration of real and financial markets among other things the model endogenously determines the stochastic process followed by the equilibrium price of any financial asset and shows how this process depends on the underlying real variables the model is fully consistent with rational expectations and maximizing behavior on the part of all agents our framework is general enough to include many of the fundamental forces affecting asset markets yet it is tractable enough to be specialized easily to produce specific testable results furthermore the model can be extended in a number of straightforward ways consequently it is well suited to a wide variety of applications for example in a companion paper cox ingersoll and ross 7 we use the model to develop a theory of the term structure of interest rates many studies have been concerned with various aspects of asset pricing under uncertainty the most relevant to our work are the important papers on intertemporal asset pricing by merton 19 and lucas 16 working in a continuous time framework merton derives a relationship among the equilibrium expected rates of return on assets he shows that when investment opportunities are changing randomly over time this relationship will include effects which have no analogue in a static one period model lucas considers an economy with homogeneous individuals and a single consumption good which is produced by a number of processes the random output of these processes is exogenously determined and perishable assets are defined as claims to all or a part of the output of a process and the equilibrium determines the asset prices our theory draws on some elements of both of these papers like merton we formulate our model in continuous time and make full use of the analytical tractability that this affords the economic structure of our model is somewhat similar to that of lucas however we include both endogenous production and

technical note financial market approaches to facility location under uncertainty this paper examines financial market approaches for facility location models incorporating uncertainty and risk aversion as an example it compares a model based on the capital asset pricing model with one using a mean variance objective function there are dramatically different computational implications the financial market approach yields simpler procedures and is able to handle more complex problems however as discussed in the concluding observations there are situations where the financial market perspective is less appropriate consequently the mean variance model still has a role in analyzing facility location decisions

time to death and the forecasting of macro level health care expenditures some further considerations although the effect of time to death ttd on health care expenditures hce has been investigated using individual level data the most profound implications of ttd have been for the forecasting of macro level hce here we estimate the ttd model using macro level data from the netherlands consisting of mortality rates and age and gender specific per capita health expenditures for the years 1981 2007 forecasts for the years 2008 2020 of this macro level ttd model were compared to forecasts that excluded ttd results revealed that the effect of ttd on hce in our macro model was similar to those found in micro econometric studies as the inclusion of ttd pushed growth rate estimates from unidentified causes upwards however the two models forecasts of hce for the 2008 2020 were similar we argue that including ttd if modeled correctly does not lower forecasts of hce

agricultural productivity under socialism abstract this paper comprises an analysis of the causes of the disappointing development of agricultural productivity under state socialism stress is laid on the underlying theoretical explanation the inadequacies of marxist agrarian theory these are excessive stress on economies of scale exaggerated expectations concerning the gains from abolishing private ownership and failure to foresee the costs of the one nation one factory model use is made of empirical material about the ussr china and other countries

food production strategy debates in revolutionary ethiopia abstract for more than a decade two strategies of rural development have competed for the attention of ethiopian policymakers 1 the smallholder approach based on individual freehold a strong private sector and public expenditures in support of essential agricultural sector institutions and infrastructure and 2 the agrarian socialism approach based on collective ownership of the means of production group farming state farms and government control of marketing the article reviews the history and direction of this debate outlining in the process current government policies aimed at promoting agrarian socialism and their effects on food production and the quality of rural life it concludes that ethiopia will suffer ever increasing food deficits until it abandons its current agrarian strategy in favor of smallholder productivity and it offers a range of options for donors involved in programs and projects promoting ethiopia s agricultural development

option valuation of claims on real assets the case of offshore petroleum leases this paper extends financial option theory by developing a methodology for the valuation of claims on a real asset an offshore petroleum lease several theoretical and practical problems not present in applying option pricing theory to financial assets are addressed most importantly we show the necessity of combining option pricing techniques with a model of equilibrium in the market for the underlying asset petroleum reserves the advantages of this approach over conventional discounted cash flow techniques are emphasized the methodological development provides important insights for both company behavior and government policy promising empirical results are reported

transforming feudal agriculture agrarian change in ethiopia since 1974 this article seeks to examine the nature and consequences of agrarian change in ethiopia since the revolution of 1974 it argues that while the reforms implemented since 1975 have effectively destroyed the age old feudal framework of agriculture they have not yet created a coherent new framework even though the government s proclaimed objective is to develop a co operative framework not much progress in that direction has so far been made in fact state policies in the past few years were dictated by the need to cope with short term problems arising from a decline in production and marketed surplus of food in the immediate aftermath of the reforms the analysis in this article shows that the basic problem of peasant agriculture is that it currently produces only a meagre economic surplus at this stage therefore agricultural growth is to be achieved primarily through the promotion of labour investment this is the principal argument for co operativisation this view suggests state policies which are

production technologies in ethiopian agriculture abstract this article examines the characteristics of and choice among two production technologies in ethiopian agriculture one with fertilizer and the other without using 1989 90 farm level data for northwest and central ethiopia fertilizer usage determinants are estimated simultaneously with technology specific production functions for southern ethiopia where fertilizer is rarely used a single production function is estimated three conclusions emerge first fertilizer use is not significantly affected by a farm s stocks of capital or land this is consistent with the fact that fertilizer allocation decisions under the deposed mengistu regime were politicized to the point where farmers had little control over use second fertilizer is associated with a smaller factor share for cattle and a larger share for land meaning that those who control land may gain relative to the individual farmers who own cattle as the country develops agriculturally third farms without fertilizer in northwest and central ethiopia tend to be too small a problem due to population pressures on the land and communal methods of land allocation this suggests that land allocation institutions should adjust by distributing land to a smaller but more economically viable number of farmers

health cost risk a potential solution to the annuity puzzle we find that health cost risk lowers optimal annuity demand at retirement if medical expenses can be sizeable early in retirement full annuitisation at retirement is no longer optimal because agents do not have enough time to build a liquid wealth buffer furthermore large deviations from optimal annuitisation levels lead to small utility differences our results suggest that health cost risk can explain a large proportion of empirically observed annuity choices finally allowing additional annuitisation after retirement results in welfare gains of at most 2 5 when facing health cost risk and negligible gains without this risk

the value of life and the rise in health spending over the past half century americans spent a rising share of total economic resources on health and enjoyed substantially longer lives as a result debate on health policy often focuses on limiting the growth of health spending we investigate an issue central to this debate is the growth of health spending a rational response to changing economic conditions notably the growth of income per person we develop a model based on standard economic assumptions and argue that this is indeed the case standard preferences of the kind used widely in economics to study consumption asset pricing and labor supply imply that health spending is a superior good with an income elasticity well above one as people get richer and consumption rises the marginal utility of consumption falls rapidly spending on health to extend life allows individuals to purchase additional periods of utility the marginal utility of life extension does not decline as a result the optimal composition of total spending shifts toward health and the health share grows along with income in projections based on the quantitative analysis of our model the optimal health share of spending seems likely to exceed 30 percent by the middle of the century

grain marketing regulations impact on peasant production in ethiopia abstract during the past 10 years ethiopia has established an elaborate system of trade restrictions producer quotas and fixed producer prices for purchasing a substantial proportion of peasants marketable surplus recent evidence suggests that the quotas are inequitably allocated among areas and that low fixed prices reduce farmer incomes incentives to use improved inputs and grain production regulation of marketplaces and interregional grain trade have important negative effects on consumers producers and the national economy by increasing grain prices the state can stimulate production and ensure adequate supplies of grain without the need for compulsory quotas relaxing the restrictions on marketplaces and on interregional trade can benefit farmers consumers and the national economy with few costs

revenue management of a make to stock queue motivated by recent electronic marketplaces we consider a single product make to stock manufacturing system that uses two alternative selling channels long term contracts and a spot market of electronic orders at time 0 the risk averse manufacturer selects the long term contract price at which point buyers choose one of the two channels the resulting long term contract demand is a deterministic fluid while the spot market demand is modeled as a stochastic renewal process an exponential reflected random walk model is used to model the spot market price which is correlated with the spot market demand process the manufacturer accepts or rejects each electronic order and long term contracts and accepted electronic orders are backordered if necessary the manufacturer s control problem is to select the optimal long term contract price as well as the optimal production i e busy idle and electronic order admission policies to maximize revenue minus inventory holding and backorder costs under heavy traffic conditions the problem is approximated by a diffusion control problem and analytical approximations are used to derive a policy that is simple and reasonably accurate and robust

optimal operating policies in the presence of exchange rate variability we study the structure of the optimal policies for a firm operating plants in different countries the relative costs of production between the plants are assumed to vary over time due to economic and political factors such as exchange rates inflation taxes and tariffs based on the costs the firm can alter the quantity produced in each plant we determine the structure of the optimal policies for deciding when and by how much to alter the production quantities when the switch over costs are linear or step functions regardless of whether the variable production costs are concave or piece wise linear convex and regardless of whether the firm is supplying one or more markets the optimal policy is always a barrier policy the optimal barriers can be determined by using linear programming techniques and the optimal costs can be computed by solving a system of linear equations when the number of optimal barriers is two the optimal expected costs and the condition that determines the optimal barriers are explicitly derived

valuing operational flexibility under exchange rate risk in this paper we develop a stochastic dynamic programming formulation for the valuation of global manufacturing strategy options with switching costs overall we adopt a hierarchical approach first exchange rates are modeled as stochastic diffusion processes that exhibit intercountry correlation second the firm s global manufacturing strategy determines options for alternative product designs as well as supply chain network designs product options introduce international supply flexibility supply chain network options determine the firm s manufacturing flexibility through production capacity and supply chain network linkages third switching costs determine the cost of operational hedging i e the costs associated with reducing downside risks overall the firm maximizes its expected discounted global after tax value through the exercise of product and supply chain network options and or through exploitation of operational flexibility contingent on exchange rate realizations in this environment the firm must trade off fixed operating costs switching costs and the economic benefits derived from exploiting differentials in factor costs and corporate tax rates a multinomial approximation of correlated exchange rate processes is proposed that leads to a consistent and tractable lattice model for this compound option valuation problem we then demonstrate how the global manufacturing strategy planning model framework can be utilized to analyze financial and operational hedging strategies

numerical evaluation of multivariate contingent claims we develop a numerical approximation method for valuing multivariate contingent claims the approach is based on an n dimensional extension of the lattice binomial method closed form solutions for the jump probabilities and the jump amplitudes are obtained the accuracy of the method is illustrated in the case of european options when there are three underlying assets article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

health care is an individual necessity and a national luxury applying multilevel decision models to the analysis of health care expenditures health care is neither a necessity or a luxury it is both since the income elasticity varies with the level of analysis with insurance individual income elasticities are typically near zero while national health expenditure elasticities are commonly greater than 1 0 the debate over whether health care is or is not a luxury good arises primarily from the failure to specify levels of analysis clearly so as to distinguish variation within groups from variation between groups apparently contradictory empirical results are shown to be consistent with a simple nested multilevel model of health care spending