price flexibility in developing countries evidence and implications using data for a sample of 50 developing countries the empirical investigation evaluates determinants and implications of asymmetric price flexibility price inflation is characterized by high flexibility to adjust towards full equilibrium further price inflation accelerates flexibly with unanticipated demand growth in both the upward and downward directions in most of the countries under investigation asymmetry indicates higher upward flexibility compared to downward flexibility in many countries aggregate uncertainty determines the degree of asymmetry such that price flexibility is higher with respect to expansionary demand shocks compared to contractionary shocks the higher the variability of aggregate demand across countries in contrast higher trend price inflation increases downward price flexibility across countries output variability decreases with both upward and downward price flexibility in the face of aggregate demand shocks a the views expressed in this article are those of the a

measuring movement of incomes we consider a small set of elementary properties for income movement measures and show that there is essentially only one measure that satisfies all of these properties the per capita aggregate change in log incomes we demonstrate next that this movement mobility measure has a number of appealing descriptive and normative properties and provide a formal generalization of our basic characterization theorem drawing from the related literature on poverty measurement finally we present here an empirical application in which we show by using our new measure that there has been a broad based increase in income movement in the united states between the 1970s and 1980s

the federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission the authors show that the interest rate on federal funds is extremely informative about future movements of real macroeconomic variables then they argue that the reason for this forecasting success is that the funds rate sensitively records shocks to the supply of bank reserves that is the funds rate is a good indicator of monetary policy actions finally using innovations to the funds rate as a measure of changes in policy the authors present evidence consistent with the view that monetary policy works at least in part through credit i e bank loans as well as through money i e bank deposits copyright 1992 by american economic association

economic activity and recession probabilities information content and predictive power of the term spread in italy the aim of the present article is to examine the information content of the italian term spread as for real economic growth rates and recession probabilities and to test its predictive power in forecasting regime probabilities to this end the relationship between the term spread and economic growth rates is modelled as a nonlinear one and specifically the logistic smooth transition model is used while a probit model is implemented to forecast recession probabilities specific to this article is the use of the oecd business cycle chronology which was never used before to this end for the italian case overall evidence supports the informative content of the spread in italy over the whole period 1984 2005 although results are more satisfactory as from 1992 in particular recession forecasts are generally better than those obtained with other chronologies previously adopted for the italian case isae and ecri

asymmetric effects of positive and negative money supply shocks this paper examines whether positive and negative money supply shocks have symmetric effects on output the results are consistent with the hypothesis that positive money supply shocks do not have an effect on output while negative money supply shocks do have an effect on output this finding is independent of whether or not expected money is assumed to affect output the results reported in this paper imply that the fed could increase the growth rate of real output by reducing the standard deviation of unexpected changes in the money supply

on a tight leash does bank organizational structure matter for macroprudential spillovers abstract this paper examines whether the organizational form of multinational banks foreign affiliates affects cross border spillovers of macroprudential regulation we compare changes in the growth of lending provided by foreign banks branches versus subsidiaries in the united kingdom in response to changes in capital requirements lending standards and reserve requirements in foreign banks home countries our results suggest that a tightening of capital requirements at home reduces uk branches interbank lending growth by 5 7 pp more relative to subsidiaries we link this effect to the higher degree of control which parent banks hold over operations of their foreign branches compared to subsidiaries supporting this hypothesis a set of further tests illustrates that the response of foreign affiliates operating under a branch structure is stronger where parent banks are more likely to delegate more decision making authority to the board of directors of their subsidiaries

the trend and the measurement of world inequality over extended periods of accounting abstract the principal result of this paper is the demonstration of a method for measuring an index of e g nominal gnp over extended periods of time and the inequality thereof snap shot inequality for specific points in 1964 1972 and 1980 is also reported and decomposed for six subgroups in 122 countries

endogenous thresholds and tests for asymmetry in us prime rate movements abstract this paper tests the hypothesis that movements in the prime rate are dependent upon the interest rate regime we find that the responsiveness of prime to changes in the federal funds rate is relatively symmetric but that the speed of adjustment of prime is faster when there is a substantial deviation from the equilibrium relationship linking these rates these two results would confirm that lending markets are competitive in the us and that monetary policy actions are readily transmitted to lending rates

an index of inequality with applications to horizontal equity and social mobility horizontal equity and social mobility are discussed in terms of a non utilitarian social welfare function which takes account of the process by which an ex ante distribution is mapped into an ex post distribution by the tax system for example an index of inequality is proposed which decomposes into two components corresponding to vertical and horizontal equity respectively a functional form for the social welfare function is derived for the purposes of empirical work and an application to data for 5895 uk households is presented the paper contains a theoretical application of the index to a model of optimal taxation it is conventional to assess the merits of alternative public policies in terms of a trade off between equity and efficiency in practice however a change in say the tax system involves three effects first it may have incentive or disincentive effects leading to efficiency gains or losses secondly it may alter the distribution of welfare levels thirdly it may alter the ranking of individuals or households within the distribution these three effects correspond to efficiency vertical equity and we shall argue certain aspects of horizontal equity respectively and any assessment of a tax change must take into account all three the principal assumption of this paper is that government is concerned about the trade off between these three effects a strict utilitarian is concerned only with the consequences of an action and in the evaluation of a particular reform a utilitarian measure of social welfare is defined over the vector of ex post utilities no account is taken of the process by which the vector of ex ante utilities is mapped into the ex post vector and no ethical status is awarded to the ex ante distribution one does not have to adopt an entitlement theory of justice to believe that the utilitarian approach may ignore some relevant considerations such as the fairness of the redistributive process a striking example of this arises in the model used by mirrlees 11 to examine optimal income taxation in that model individuals have identical preferences defined over consumption and leisure and differ only in respect of their potential wage rates or ability levels clearly in the absence of taxation individual utility is an increasing function of ability suppose the government uses redistributive lump sum taxes to achieve the first best optimum then as mirrlees 11 12 shows the first best optimum for a utilitarian social welfare

changes in the world distribution of income between 1950 and 1977 trends in the world distribution of income are much discussed and philosophised about the issue of increasing economic inequality among nonsocialist countries in the post war period is central to the debate about the international economic order in i969 the pearson commission report was already pointing to the widening gap between the developed and developing countries as a central issue of our time and was proposing the reduction of that gap as the main objective of international co operation according to that report gnp per capita had increased between i960 and i967 at annual rates of 2 5 and 3 6 in developing and developed countries respectively morawetz i978 found that the gap between the two sets of countries rose from i 2 6 fold in i950 to i3 2 fold in i975 other authors see a more complicated picture atkinson i975 for instance has argued that although the share of poor countries in world income probably declined between i950 and i970 that of the countries at the middle of the world distribution probably increased 2 what may be a mere assessment of relative growth performances among nonsocialist countries becomes a basic theoretical element in the radical stream of economic literature for authors like amin i974 emmanuel i972 and frank i978 the capitalist mode of development necessarily leads to the rich countries of the centre becoming richer and poor countries of the periphery becoming poorer in a degree depending on their involvement in international trade for them a widening gap between developed and developing countries is simply the statistical confirmation of an unavoidable consequence of the national and international capitalist system in the latter perspective the issue at stake is of such importance that the contrast between the abundance of theoretical literature and the lack of empirical work is striking the few existing studies of changes in world distribution provide an inadequate picture intra country income distributions are not taken into account observation periods do not exceed i5 years 8 for andic and peacock i96i and for beckerman and bacon i970 i5 for kirman and tomasini i969 socialist as well as some non socialist countries are excluded and national incomes are converted to u s dollars at official exchange rates 3 finally none of these studies covers the i970s although several shocks which might have affected world distribution occurred during that decade for the non socialist countries to which they refer the andic peacock and beckerman bacon studies found the gini coefficient almost constant over

why do managers explain their earnings forecasts managers often explain their earnings forecasts by linking forecasted performance to their internal actions and the actions of parties external to the firm these attributions potentially aid investors in the interpretation of management forecasts by confirming known relationships between attributions and profitability or by identifying additional causes that investors should consider when forecasting earnings we investigate why managers choose to provide attributions with their forecasts and whether the attributions are related to security price reactions to management earnings forecasts using a sample of 951 management earnings forecasts issued from 1993 to 1996 we find that attributions are more likely for larger firms less likely for firms in regulated industries less likely for forecasts issued over longer horizons more likely for bad news forecasts and more likely for forecasts that are maximum type furthermore attributions are associated with greater absolute price reactions to management forecasts more negative price reactions to management forecasts forecast news held constant and a greater price reaction per dollar of unexpected earnings our findings hold after control for the aforementioned determinants of attributions and after control for other firm and forecast specific variables that are often associated with security prices

loss aversion and the asymmetric transmission of monetary policy there is widespread evidence that monetary policy exerts asymmetric effects on output over contractions and expansions in economic activity while price responses display no sizeable asymmetry to rationalize these facts we develop a dynamic general equilibrium model where households utility depends on consumption deviations from a reference level below which loss aversion is displayed state dependent degrees of real rigidity and elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption generate competing effects on output and inflation contractions face the central bank with higher responsiveness of output to interest rate changes as well as a flatter aggregate supply schedule

is the response of output to monetary policy asymmetric evidence from a regime switching coefficients model this paper investigates regime switching in the response of u s output to a monetary policy action we find substantial statistically significant time variation in this response that corresponds to high response and low response regimes we then investigate whether the timing of the regime shifts are consistent with three particular manifestations of asymmetry by modeling the transition probabilities governing the switching process as functions of state variables we find strong evidence that policy actions taken during recessions have larger effects than those taken during expansions we find less evidence of asymmetry related to the direction or size of the policy action

sticky wage or sticky price analysis of the cyclical behavior of the real wage the study of business cycles has been at the heart of macroeconomic theory for decades theoretical efforts have focused on providing an adequate explanation for sources of economic fluctuations new keynesian explanations have emphasized rigidity that interferes with market forces increasing the effect of demand shocks on the output produced the form of rigidity is in sharp contrast between sticky wage and sticky price models the former imposes rigidity on the shortrun adjustment of wages to demand shocks 20 47 the latter in contrast imposes rigidity on the short run price adjustment to demand shocks 2 34 40 9 43 4 the theoretical plausibility of competing explanations of business cycles has stimulated interest to establish their empirical validity 32 28 1 8 11 23 21 26 these efforts have focused attention on cyclical fluctuations of the real wage in response to demand shocks the real wage may move procyclically or countercyclically according to the relative adjustment of wages and prices the interest in studying the cyclical behavior of the real wage relates to its implications to the real effects of aggregate demand shocks in the context of sticky wage models nominal wage rigidity reinforces the countercyclical response of the real wage to demand shocks and the real effect of these shocks on output growth sticky price models in contrast advocate that price rigidity increases the procyclical response of the real wage to demand shocks and their real effect on output growth the results of earlier investigations of the cyclical behavior of the real wage appear conflicting and therefore do not lend support to a given explanation 2 the present investigation seeks to contribute to this literature unlike previous empirical research on the subject the objective of this investigation is to study the cyclical behavior of the real wage and the relative flexibility of the nominal wage and the price level that determines this behavior in response to demand shocks using data for the united states in the preand post world war ii sample periods the cyclical

a disaggregated analysis of asymmetrical behaviour in the uk housing market potential asymmetrical adjustment in uk house prices is considered the present analysis extends previous research in a number of crucial ways first a seminal examination of asymmetry in regionally disaggregated uk house prices is undertaken secondly data are examined which are further disaggregated according to the age or vintage of the housing stock however the major development concerns the application of a non parametric testing approach to detect cyclical asymmetry in contrast to previously employed tests in the economics literature the triples test employed possesses high power and is not sensitive to outliers it is found that extensive asymmetry is present in uk house prices with cyclical peaks typically being greater in magnitude than corresponding troughs the implications of these findings for the comparison and construction of economic theories of the housing market the specification of econometric models and the construction and implementation of economic policy are noted

expectations and monetary neutrality an empirical reexamination modern monetary business cycle models feature rational expectations and natural rate assumptions which imply that unanticipated changes in nominal aggregates affect real output but anticipated changes do not initial tests conducted by barro 3 and by barro and rush 4 supported the neutrality of anticipated money growth in a particularly influential study mishkin 21 22 rejected the neutrality of anticipated policy mishkin s paper 21 has become one of the most frequently cited studies in empirical macroeconomics the influence of the study probably derives in large part from the unequivocal nature of the results in particular mishkin showed that i the hypothesis that anticipated policy has no effect on output is strongly rejected ii anticipated nominal changes have a greater estimated effect on output than do unanticipated nominal changes iii lags as long as 17 quarters have significant coefficients implying that barro s eight lag model was underspecified iv in some specifications the estimated sign of the effect of nominal innovations is opposite to the prediction of monetary business cycle theory frydman and rappoport 9 used mishkin s empirical model to provide further evidence against the neutrality hypothesis by showing that the data provide no evidence for distinguishing between the output effects of anticipated policy and those of unanticipated policy although several subsequent studies have supported the neutrality hypothesis 7 12 mishkin s careful study and a small number of additional studies suggest that the neutrality hypothesis is not robust the empirical rejection of the neutrality hypothesis contradicts a wide range of modern monetary models including those based on imperfect information 14 18 19 and those based on imperfect competition 8 20 as a consequence the focus of macroeconomists has in recent years shifted to non monetary models in which money responds passively to changes in aggregate output 16 17 this paper explores the robustness of mishkin s results using an updated data set the model yields results that are more consistent with the neutrality hypothesis than those of mishkin in par

how much income mobility is there in britain using the first four waves of the british household panel survey 1991 4 and a variety of methods we show that there is much mobility in household net income from one year to the next in britain however most income changes from one year to the next are not very large and when incomes are longitudinally averaged so that transitory variations are smoothed out substantial permanent income differences are revealed there is some evidence of greater mobility for those in the tails of the income distribution relative to the middle and for elderly persons compared to non elderly persons

sources of regime switching in short term interest rates for canada the purpose of this study is to identify sources of regime switching in short term interest rates for canada the choice of information variables is based on three well known hypotheses about interest rates the expectations hypothesis the fisher relationship and the condition for uncovered interest parity the empirical framework consists of an autoregressive distributive lag adl model in error correction form with information spreads and a markov regime switching estimation methodology the models choose interest rate regimes that are similar in many respects to those found for the usa the different regimes in canada are driven by movements in the monetary policy rate the us short term rate and the long term yield the monetary policy rate is found to trigger very large changes in the short term rate responding one for one in the high variance regime and slightly less in the more normal interest rate regime both the us short rate and long term yield are also found to trigger relatively large

testing for asymmetry in the link between the yield spread and output in the g 7 countries abstract the difference in yields between long term and short term securities has been used both as a business cycle leading indicator and as an indicator of the direction of monetary policy this paper tests for an asymmetry in the form of a threshold effect such that the impact of the yield spread on the conditional expectation of output growth is greater on one side of the threshold than on the other we test using data from the g 7 countries and find that while the yield spread does generally show a significant link with output only in the united states and canada is there strong evidence of an asymmetry of this type this evidence suggests a high value of the threshold in both the united states and canada

intercountry inequalities in income and index of net social progress evidence from recent data abstract intercountry income inequality is computed from real gdp data that became available recently from phase iv of international comparisons project similar inequality measures are also calculated for index of net social progress proposed by estes 1983 and for conventional gnp per capita although the three indicators are strongly and positively correlated intercountry inequality indices derived from these are rather dramatically different

the meaning and measurement of income mobility abstract income mobility may be seen as arising from two sources i the transfer of income among individuals with total income held constant and ii a change in the total amount of income available in this paper we propose several sensible properties defining the concept of income mobility and show that an easily applicable measure of mobility is uniquely implied by these properties we also show that the resulting measure is additively decomposable into the two sources listed above namely mobility due to the transfer of income within a given structure and mobility due to economic growth or contraction finally these results are compared and contrasted with other mobility concepts and measures in the literature journal of economic literature classification numbers d31 d63

banking crises and nonlinear linkages between credit and output in this article we analyse the asymmetric causality linkages between credit growth and output growth during banking crises we employ a recently developed procedure based on a bivariate markov switching model to test the hypotheses of independence causality and asymmetric causality between credit and output using a sample of 103 banking crises around the world we find that neither credit nor output takes precedence as a variable in calm and crisis periods although there is evidence of instantaneous interdependence between the banking and real sector during crises the results suggest that shocks propagate mostly within a year between the banking sector and the real economy the linear link between credit growth and output growth is also regime dependent

nonlinear autoregressive leading indicator models of output in g 7 countries this paper studies linear and nonlinear autoregressive leading indicator models of business cycles in g 7 countries our models use the spread between short term and long term interest rates as leading indicators for gdp we examine data admissibility by determining whether these models have the ability to produce time series with classical cycles that resemble the observed classical cycles in the data and then we ask whether this data admissibility lends itself to better predictions of the probability of recession copyright 2007 john wiley sons ltd

sectoral variability and the foundations of optimal inflation rate abstractthe recent monetary search models argue that the real effects of inflation on economic activity can be gauged through relative price variability rpv our study uses a large panel data of

openness and the effects of monetary policy abstract economic theory suggests that an economy s openness reduces the ability of monetary policy to affect output while increasing its effects on inflation using annual data from the 1953 1990 period for a panel of 38 countries the paper s empirical results support the theoretical predictions the more open the economy the smaller larger the output inflation effects of a given change in the money supply this finding is robust across all the different specifications and estimation methods examined

inflation and asymmetric output adjustments by firms i introduction recent empirical research has rejuvenated interest in the idea that output responds asymmetrically to monetary shocks cover 1988 found that in the usa during the post wwii period positive shocks to the money supply had no effect on output whereas negative shocks reduced output his results have been corroborated by de long and summers 1988 and morgan 1993 using different time periods and measures of monetary shocks results from karras 1996a b suggest output asymmetry may be an international phenomenon the reasons for output asymmetry remain unclear they may be due to asymmetries anywhere in the transmission of monetary shocks to output asymmetric price adjustment by firms is one possible explanation but to date the evidence concerning price asymmetry has been mixed using data from 38 countries karras 1996b finds no evidence of price asymmetry in response to money supply shocks whereas studies of the effect on inflation of aggregate output gaps by laxton meredith and rose 1995 and turner 1995 imply that money supply shocks are more inflationary as an economy approaches full capacity and less inflationary when an economy approaches low capacity the aim of this paper is to test whether output responds asymmetrically to shocks and to evaluate the role of firm pricing behavior our approach is different from previous studies in several respects we use micro level firm data we evaluate both output and price asymmetry for a common sample of firms and we evaluate the influence of inflation the only previous empirical work examining the influence of inflation on output asymmetry is rhee and rich 1995 who find that the asymmetric relationship between monetary shocks and aggregate output revealed by cover is influenced by inflation we use individual firm data obtained by a survey of new zealand manufacturing firms to estimate a model of output and price change based on a theoretical model of price and output asymmetry developed by ball and mankiw 1994 they consider a situation in which firms make regularly scheduled price changes and by paying a menu cost can also make special adjustments in response to shocks to desired price the presence of menu costs of price adjustment implies a zone of no price change over which shocks to desired price will not result in a change in actual price inflation affects the opportunity cost of not changing price and therefore the position of this zone of no price change asymmetries in the response of prices to shocks therefore arise naturally when there is positive trend inflation and are predicted to be more pronounced at higher rates of inflation ball and mankiw suggest that a corollary of price asymmetry is output asymmetry at high inflation prices are predicted to be more responsive to positive shocks than to negative shocks and output more responsive to negative shocks than to positive shocks as inflation falls these asymmetries are predicted to become less pronounced we evaluate output and price asymmetry and the influence of inflation in two ways first we estimate the zone of no price change and the zone of no output change and evaluate how inflation affects the position of these zones second we evaluate how the response of prices and output to positive and to negative cost and demand shocks vary with inflation using ordered probit analysis we find evidence of output asymmetry and price asymmetry which are systematically related to inflation furthermore the relative behavior of output and prices is consistent with price asymmetry being an explanation for output asymmetry the remainder of the paper is structured as follows the second section explains why firm prices and output may respond asymmetrically to shocks and the potential role of inflation in this process the third section explains the survey data used to test for asymmetry at different rates of inflation

own company stock in defined contribution pension plans a takeover defense abstract if managers induce employees to hold company stock in defined contribution pension plans as a form of takeover defense then changes in state laws that enhance managerial protection should lead to a reduction in employer stock in 401 k plans delaware s mid 1990s validation of the poison pill in conjunction with a staggered board was followed by a significant decline in employee ownership within defined contribution plans for firms incorporated in delaware evidence using governance data suggests that this is due to responses of firms with staggered boards binary choice models confirm that employee ownership in defined contribution plans lowers takeover probabilities

another perspective on changes in international inequality from 1950 to 1980 abstract real income data derived from the third phase of the international comparisons project are used to compute theil s population weighted indices of intercountry inequality for several years between 1950 and 1980 contrary to some recently reported results a substantial increase in inequality is observed internationally comparable consumption data indicate consumption inequality increased more than income inequality

the real effects of financial markets the impact of prices on takeovers using mutual fund redemptions as an instrument for price changes we identify a strong effect of market prices on takeover activity the trigger effect an interquartile decrease in valuation leads to a seven percentage point increase in acquisition likelihood relative to a 6 unconditional takeover probability instrumentation addresses the fact that prices are endogenous and increase in anticipation of a takeover the anticipation effect our results overturn prior literature that finds a weak relation between prices and takeovers without instrumentation these findings imply that financial markets have real effects they impose discipline on managers by triggering takeover threats does a low market valuation make a firm a takeover target in theory if acquisition prices are related to market prices acquirers can profit from taking over a firm whose market value is low relative to its peers due either to mispricing or mismanagement and restore it to its potential indeed in practice acquirers and other investors appear to track a firm s valuation multiples for indications on the potential for acquisition and managers strive to maintain high market valuations to prevent a hostile takeover understanding whether such a link exists is important because if so this would suggest that the market is not a sideshow but rather exerts a powerful disciplinary effect on firm management as suggested by marris 1964 manne 1965 a ndjensen 1993 despite the above logic existing empirical studies on takeovers fail to systematically uncover a meaningful relationship between market valuations

do independent director departures predict future bad events following surprise independent director departures affected firms have worse stock and operating performance are more likely to restate earnings face shareholder litigation suffer from an extreme negative return event and make worse mergers and acquisitions the announcement returns to surprise director departures are negative suggesting that the market infers bad news from surprise departures we use exogenous variation in independent director departures triggered by director deaths to test whether surprise independent director departures cause these negative outcomes or whether an anticipation of negative outcomes is responsible for the surprise director departure our evidence is more consistent with the latter

on the asymmetric effects of money supply shocks international evidence from a panel of oecd countries we examine whether the asymmetric effect of money on output is an international phenomenon and investigate the reasons for this asymmetry quarterly data from the 1963 93 period for a panel of twelve oecd countries strongly support asymmetry internationally negative money supply shocks are shown to have a stronger effect on output than positive shocks our methodology also enables us to distinguish between two sets of theories consistent with the output asymmetries a convex aggregate supply and a credit view we find that the effects of money on prices are generally symmetric which may be consistent with both sets of theories being operative at once

credit rationing and threshold effects in the relation between money and output the possibility that the effect of monetary policy on output may depend on whether credit conditions are tight or loose can be expressed as a non linearity in the relation between real money supply and output of which a simple case is a threshold effect in this case consistent with the credit rationing model of blinder 1987 the monetary variable has a more powerful effect if it is below some threshold than when it is above testing for the importance of this threshold is straightforward if the appropriate threshold value is known a priori but where the value is not known and must be chosen based on the sample the testing problem becomes more difficult we apply recently developed tests applicable in this situation to both us and canadian data and find substantial evidence of a threshold effect particularly in us data however the estimated threshold values are high copyright 1996 by john wiley sons ltd

asymmetric responses of house prices to changes in the mortgage interest rate evidence from the australian capital cities we examine the dynamic and asymmetric responses of house prices to changes in mortgage interest rates in australia from january 1995 to november 2017 we propose a threshold intervention model to d

international inequalities in human development and real income abstract two well recommended measures are used to compute intercountry inequalities in real gdp per capita ry and the index of human development hdi despite very high positive correlation between ry and hdi the inequality measures reveal dramatically different pictures

asymmetric effects of interest rate changes the role of the consumption wealth channel this article examines the role of the consumption wealth channel in explaining asymmetric effects of monetary policy changes towards this end we draw upon available literature on the consumption function and behavioural finance to construct a framework for asymmetric effects of monetary policy caused by the impact of wealth changes on aggregate consumption we then employ data from the uk to examine the validity of the proposed framework in the context of a liberalized economy with easy access to consumer credit wealth reduction due to monetary tightening is expected to have weaker impact on spending than increase in wealth our results validate the above hypothesis

the asymmetric effects of monetary shocks the case of turkey this paper examines whether there is an asymmetry in the effects of positive versus negative and small versus big money supply shocks and whether the effects of the shocks on output and prices vary over the business cycles in the case of turkey negative shocks to money are found to have greater output and smaller price effects compared to the effects of positive shocks irrespective of the initial state of the economy it is also found that monetary shocks of different size affect output growth and inflation rates proportionately these findings can be interpreted as evidence for the view that the short run aggragate supply curve is convex in such a country like turkey

money credit constraints and economic activity when government expenditures exceed current tax revenues the resulting deficit must be financed either by issuing bonds which imply obligations to levy future taxes or by creating high powered money the choice between money and bonds is often thought to be of great moment for both real and nominal variables that is monetary policy matters there is by now a wide empirical consensus that monetary policy has effects on real variables like output and employment but there is far less agreement about why this is so the purpose of this paper is to take issue with some currently fashionable views of why money has real effects and to suggest a new theory or rather resurrect an old one the loanable funds theory and give it new improved microfoundations this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

an empirical analysis of information in the yield spread on future recessions in japan this article examines whether the yield spread contains information on the likelihood of future economic recessions using a probit model by taking the stability of the relationship between the yield spread and future recessions into account we also compare the accuracy of information in the yield spread with stock returns and money supply we find the following results in this article first a structural change in the relationship between the yield spread and future recessions occur at the end of 1996 second whereas the japanese yield spread contains more precise information on future recessions than stock returns and nominal money supply before the structural break we cannot predict future recessions using the yield spread after the break third the money supply does not forecast future recessions for the entire sample period

asymmetric effects of money supply shocks and trend inflation in recent years a number of empirical studies have presented evidence that money supply shocks have asymmetric effects that is unexpected negative changes in the money supply slow the economy more than unexpected positive changes accelerate the economy evidence of asymmetry was documented by cover 1992 for the postwar u s economy and his finding was confirmed by de long and summers 1988 morgan 1993 rhee and rich 1995 and karras 1996a b stimulated by these empirical works several attempts have been made to provide microeconomic foundations for the asymmetric effects of money supply shocks 1 among those theories this paper examines the one that focuses on asymmetric price adjustment and let us call it a sticky price theory money supply shocks will have asymmetric effects on real output if prices are less flexible downward than upward this sticky price theory was proposed by tsiddon 1993 ball and mankiw 1994 and caballero and engel 1992 by employing a menu cost model the above researchers show that positive trend inflation can produce the asymmetric effects of money supply shocks the logic of their theory is the following along with price adjustment costs positive trend infla

competition transmission and bank pricing policies evidence from belgian loan and deposit markets abstract this paper addresses the pass through from market interest rates to retail bank interest rates the paper advocates a heterogeneous approach and applies it to the belgian banking market a substantial proportion of the heterogeneity in bank pricing policies can be explained by the bank lending channel and the relative market power hypothesis the results also suggest that the long term pass through is typically less than one for one rejecting the completeness hypothesis while there is no convincing evidence for asymmetry in retail rates large deviations from equilibrium mark ups are faster reduced than small deviations overall conditions for corporate loans are more competitive compared to consumer loans demand and savings deposits have by far the most rigid prices

a decomposition of the predictive content of the term structure for output growth in canada the purpose of this study is to identify the underlying economic disturbances that drive the predictive content of the term structure for future output growth and those that may distort its information content the study uses a structural vector autoregressive var model of a small and open economy for canada that takes into account its relationship with financial markets in the usa and that canada is a relatively large exporter of commodities the model is used to decompose the sources of the variation of the slope of the yield curve and the correlation between the term spread and output growth monetary policy disturbances in both canada and the usa as well as short term interest rates are found to trigger excessive volatility in short term rates and the term spread that do not contribute to the predictive content of the term spread for future output growth at horizons relevant for monetary policy analysis however innovations in output growth inflation and other macroeconomic variables do not dist

financial variables and real activity in canada in this paper we utilize canadian and u s data to investigate the relationship between financial market variables canadian and u s and canadian output growth using a non parametric technique the financial variables examined are those that are often associated with future output growth namely stock prices interest rates interest rate spreads and monetary aggregates our results show that as the number of autocovariances that are assigned a non zero weight increases the feedback from selected canadian or u s financial variables to future canadian output growth increases in particular we find that stock prices as well as yield spreads and monetary aggregates are useful predictors of output growth this is in line with earlier parametric studies in the literature that find these variables to be good predictors of economic activity variables financieres et niveau d activite reelle au canada ce memoire utilise des donnees canadiennes et americaines pour analyser la relation entre les variables des marches financiers au canada et aux e u et la croissance du produit canadien a l aide d une technique non parametrique les variables financieres analysees sont celles qui sont generalement associees a la croissance du produit national dans l avenir i e le prix des actions les taux d interet les ecarts entre taux d interets et les agregats monetaires les resultats montrent que a proportion que le nombre des auto covariances auquel on assigne une valence zero s accroit les effets d echos variables financieres sur la croissance future du produit canadien s accroissent en particulier il appert que les prix des actions les ecarts entre taux d interets et les agregats monetaires sont des predicteurs utiles de la croissance du produit voila qui confirme les resultats d etudes parametriques

the supply of corporate directors and board independence empirical evidence on the relations between board independence and board decisions and firm performance is generally confounded by serious endogeneity issues we circumvent these endogeneity problems by demonstrating the strong impact of the local director labor market on board composition specifically we show that proximity to larger pools of local director talent leads to more independent boards for all but the largest quartile of s p 1500 using local director pools as an instrument for board independence we document that board independence has a positive effect on firm value operating performance fraction of ceo incentive based pay and ceo turnover the author 2013 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oup com oxford university press

endogenously chosen boards of directors and their monitoring of the ceo author s hermalin benjamin e abstract this paper develops a model in which the effectiveness of a board s monitoring of the ceo depends on the board s independence the independence of new directors is determined through negotiations implicit or explicit between the existing directors and the ceo the ceo s bargaining position and thus influence over the board selection process depends on an updated estimate of the ceo s ability based on prior performance many empirical findings about board structure and performance arise as equilibrium phenomena in this model we also explore the implications of this model for proposed regulations of corporate governance structures please contact the program in law and economics at boalt hall school of law uc berkeley berkeley ca 94720 for a copy of this paper

intercountry inequalities in income and basic needs indicators a recent perspective abstract large crosscountry samples are used to compute intercountry inequalities in income and three indicators of basic needs fulfillment first the familiar picture of high intercountry inequality in income coexisting with low inequality in basic needs indicators is reaffirmed for the 1980s second income inequality seems to have continued its increasing trend third however while the pace of increase in inequality in conventional gdp per capita has accelerated accentuation of inequality in real gdp per capita has slowed fourth inequality in basic needs indicators continues to decline last caution is urged in interpreting the very low values observed for some indices of inequality in basic needs fulfillment during the 1980s

foreign independent directors and the quality of legal institutions foreign directors can affect firm value through their advising and monitoring functions however the demand for these directors as well as their effect on firm performance is likely to be influenced by firm and country level characteristics in a large sample of non us firms we find that foreign directors are more likely to be associated with firms that have more foreign operations and an international shareholder base and firms that are located in countries with a limited supply of potentially qualified domestic directors countries with a smaller less well educated populace and lower levels of capital market development we also find that the association between foreign directors and firm performance is more positive in countries with lower quality legal institutions and when the director comes from a country with higher quality legal institutions than the firm s host country our study highlights the importance of considering national demographic factors and levels of capital market development when modeling the supply and demand for foreign directors and also underscores the importance of institutional quality in the foreign director s home and host country when assessing the effect of that director on firm performance

are the effects of monetary policy asymmetric huntley schaller by building on the hamilton 1989 markov switching model we examine questions like does monetary policy have the same effect in expansions and recessions given that the economy is currently in a recession does a fall in interest rates increase the probability of an expansion does monetary policy have an incremental effect on the growth rate within a given state or does it only affect the economy if it is sufficiently strong to induce a state change e g from recession to expansion as suggested by models with sticky prices or finance constraints interest rate changes have larger effects during recessions jel e52 e32 much of the recent work in macroeconomics has proceeded under the assumption that variables follow linear stochastic processes with constant coefficients as a result some of the richness of the burns mitchell analysis such as its focus on asymmetries between recessions and expansions may well have been lost blanchard and fischer 1989 7 i introduction for decades macroeconomists have debated whether monetary policy has the same effect on real output in expansions and recessions as far back as the 1930s keynes and pigou debated whether monetary policy would have less effect on output during a severe economic downturn in the 1960s there were active debates on a very different proposition namely whether the rightward portion of the aggregate supply curve was vertical so that monetary policy would have less effect on real output during expansions in this article we provide a new type of evidence on whether monetary policy has different effects depending on whether the economy is in an expansion or recession empirical evidence on this issue is particularly relevant in light of new theoretical work in macroeconomics that predicts asymmetric effects of demand shocks conditional on the state of the economy two examples of this work are s s type models of price adjustment and models in which there are agency costs of financial intermediation 1 the intuition for the latter class of models is simple 2 when there is information asymmetry in financial markets agents may behave as if they were constrained for a variety of reasons these finance constraints are more likely to bind during recessions when the net worth of agents is low an increase in interest rates will then have two effects on investment the standard effect of increasing the cost of capital and therefore reducing investment demand and an additional effect of reducing liquidity e g by increasing debt service obligations and thus reducing investment demand for constrained agents as a result monetary policy actions that change interest rates will have greater effects during a recession 3 the s s type price adjustment models of ball and mankiw 1994 caballero and engel 1992 and tsiddon 1993 lead to a convex aggregate supply curve and therefore also imply that monetary policy will have stronger effects during recessions one of the more frequently cited empirical papers on the potentially asymmetric effects of monetary policy is cover 1992 which finds evidence that positive monetary shocks have different effects from negative monetary shocks we are looking at a different type of asymmetry namely between booms and recessions we study asymmetries using an extension of the markov switching model developed by hamilton 1989 estimated over the period 1955 93 in hamilton s econometric specification the growth rate of output depends on a state variable that corresponds to an expansion or recession this approach has several advantages first unlike linear projections it allows for nonlinearities and asymmetries second in estimating the recession coefficients it gives greater relative weight to observations that most clearly correspond to recessions and similarly for the expansion coefficients

markov switching midas models this article introduces a new regression model markov switching mixed data sampling ms midas that incorporates regime changes in the parameters of the mixed data sampling midas models and allows for the use of mixed frequency data in markov switching models after a discussion of estimation and inference for ms midas and a small sample simulation based evaluation the ms midas model is applied to the prediction of the u s economic activity in terms of both quantitative forecasts of the aggregate economic activity and the prediction of the business cycle regimes both simulation and empirical results indicate that ms midas is a very useful specification

measuring social mobility as unpredictability by associating mobility with the unpredictability of social states new measures of social mobility may be constructed we propose a family of three state by state and aggregate scalar predictability measures the first set of measures is based on the transition matrix the second uses a sampling approach and permits statistical testing of the hypothesis of perfect mobility providing a new justification for the use of the x2 statistic the third satisfies the demanding criterion of period consistency an empirical example demonstrates the usefulness of the new measures to complement existing ones in the literature

an empirical characterization of the dynamic effects of police spending on violent and property crime the study estimates the dynamic effects of shocks to police expenditures on measures of violent and property crime rates using annual u s state level data for the period 1960 2015 we employ a structural panel var model and achieve identification by imposing the restriction that police spending responds to structural shocks to crime with at least a lag of 1 year results indicate that a shock to police spending leads to a persistent and significant decreases in violent and property crime rates and b significant and persistent negative impacts on crime rates in periods of high crime but little impacts in periods of low crime variance decompositions show that shocks to police spending account for moderate to large proportions of the variability of u s state level crime rates our findings are robust across separate measures of violent and property crime rates as well as to the inclusion of additional variables to the baseline panel var model jel k42

asymmetry in okun s law in this paper we support the proposition that the output unemployment relationship as represented by okun s law is asymmetric okun s coefficients are defined based on a dynamic model that allows for asymmetry in the relationship between cyclical output and unemployment using data from the united states for the post war period our results show that the short run effects of positive cyclical output on cyclical unemployment are quantitatively different from those of negative ones and the data are consistent with the proposition that cyclical unemployment is more sensitive to negative than to positive cyclical output several theoretical

factor decomposition of cross country income inequality 1960 1990 abstract in this paper we present esteban s 1994 esteban j 1994 la desigualdad interregional en europa y en espana descripcion y analisis in esteban j m a vives x dirs crecimiento y convergencia regional en espana y en europa vol 2 instituto de analisis economico decomposition of the theil index of inequality over per capita incomes into the unweighted sum of the inequality indices of i the productivity per employed worker ii the employment rate iii the active over working age population rate and iv the working age over total population rate each of these factors clearly have different meanings for analysis as well as for policy we apply this factoral decomposition to a set of 120 countries we also contrast the empirical findings with the results obtained for the 23 oecd countries oecd labour force statistics several issues paris

seeking a comprehensive measure of economic well being annuitisation versus capitalisation abstract biases in inequality measures arise when components of comprehensive measures of economic well being are estimated using cross section data biases under annuitisation are small and bounded unlike biases under capitalisation this recommends the annuity over the capitalisation approach

international income mobility abstract we perform a novel analysis of the international mobility of per capita gnp we find general but not unambiguous support for the notion that world income mobility increased between 1972 and 1992 counterpointing the increased inequality over this period

credit rationing and the monetary transmission mechanism according to alan blinder s 1987 model of credit rationing a tightening of monetary policy may have strong effects on the real sector when credit is already tight but weak effects when credit is initially plentiful p 343 the tighter the state of recent monetary policy the more likely it is that the economy s credit constraint will be binding and hence the greater will be the output effects of monetary policy this paper provides a test of the blinder proposition using postwar quarterly u s data and the results are then used to estimate the importance of credit rationing as a channel through which monetary policy influences the economy i consider three alternative criteria for determining when the economy is creditrationed the first criterion states that the economy is credit rationed if recent monetary policy as measured by one of two alternative monetary variables has been substantially tighter than average the second method draws on work by otto eckstein 1983 and allen sinai 1976 who developed estimates of periods of credit crunch based on a wide variety of indicators of credit market conditions the third and final approach is based on stephen king s 1986 estimates of the excess demand for commercial bank lending section i develops the specification of the tests section ii reports regressions and analyzes the implications for the monetary transmission mechanism and section iii presents conclusions

structural break threshold vars for predicting us recessions using the spread this paper proposes a model to predict recessions that accounts for non linearity and a structural break when the spread between long and short term interest rates is the leading indicator estimation and model selection procedures allow us to estimate and identify time varying non linearity in a var the structural break threshold var sbtvar predicts better the timing of recessions than models with constant threshold or with only a break using real time data the sbtvar with spread as leading indicator is able to anticipate correctly the timing of the 2001 recession

business cycle asymmetry a deeper look this paper distinguishes two types of asymmetry in business cycles deepness and steepness deepness is defined as the characteristic that troughs are further below trend than peaks are above most previous research has focused exclusively on steepness which refers to cycles in which contractions are steeper than expansions a test for deepness is proposed and applied to u s post war quarterly unemployment real gnp and industrial production evidence of deepness is found for unemployment and industrial production while the evidence for real gnp is weaker previous evidence of steepness in unemployment is confirmed

state dependent pricing and business cycle asymmetries we present a tractable dynamic general equilibrium model of state dependent pricing and study the response of output and prices to monetary policy shocks we find important non linearities in these responses for empirically relevant shocks this generates substantially different predictions from time dependent pricing we also find a distinct asymmetry with state dependent pricing prices respond more to positive shocks than they do to negative shocks this is due to a strategic linkage between firms in the incentive for price adjustment our state dependent model can account for business cycle asymmetries in output of the magnitude found in empirical studies

credit rationing and effective supply failures the topic of this paper is among the oldest and most fundamental in monetary theory how and why does monetary policy affect real economic activity traditional answers hold that the central bank can manipulate aggregate demand by engineering expansions or contractions of the medium of exchange in its monetarist variant this story posits a direct link between something called m and aggregate spending in its keynesian variant the story holds that adjustments in asset prices brought about by a change in m lead to more spending especially on capital goods in either case short run stickiness of prices is needed to translate some of the changes in demand into movements of real output in recent years these conventional stories have become increasingly implausible as stiglitz and i blinder and stiglitz i 983 have argued elsewhere with money becoming more and more difficult to define it is becoming increasingly difficult to believe that the central bank can cause a recession by contriving a shortage of an arbitrary subset of assets called m put differently the point seems both simple and compelling if there are ready substitutes for money control of money will not give the authorities much leverage over the real economy hence this paper develops an explanation for how central bank policy affects

board independence and operating performance analysis on french company and individual data this article studies the relationship between board independence and firm operating performance in french listed companies we take advantage of an original database with a time series dimension that can be used to mitigate heterogeneity and dynamic endogeneity issues in addition this database can be disaggregated at the individual director level this design enables us to introduce firm fixed effects and individual fixed effects in firm performance equations thereby controlling for heterogeneity at the firm and individual levels our main result is to document a significant negative relationship between independence and accounting performance this result suggests that in the french context the costs of independence i e the informational gap supported by independent directors compared to insiders and affiliated directors outweigh the benefits of independence i e the reduction in agency costs

monetary policy effectiveness and stock market cycles in asean 5 this article examines the asymmetric effects of monetary policy on real output in bull and bear phases of stock market in five asean economies malaysia singapore indonesia the philippines and thailand using the recently developed pooled mean group pmg technique stock market cycles are identified by employing markov switching models and the rule based nonparametric approach estimating the models using monthly data from 1991 1 to 2011 12 the results show that monetary policy measured by short term interest rate has a negative and statistically significant long run effect on real output in bull and bear market periods while the effects are stronger in bear periods than bulls in the short run there is no statistically significant relationship between monetary policy and real output these results are consistent with finance constraints capital market imperfection models that predict that monetary policy is more effective during bear periods than bulls