the impact of minimum wages on youth employment in portugal textabstractfrom january 1 1987 the legal minimum wage for workers aged 18 and 19 in portugal was uprated to the full adult rate generating a 49 3 increase between 1986 and 1987 in the legal minimum wage for this age group this shock is used as a natural experiment to evaluate the impact of the minimum wage change on teenagers employment by using a large firm level micro data set it is shown that by comparing the employment growth of 18 19 year old workers with their 20 25 year old counterparts one can identify the employment effects of the minimum wage hike the same comparisons are done with 30 35 year old workers this study finds that the rise in the minimum wage significantly reduced employment this conclusion is reinforced by evidence showing that these employment effects are concentrated in firms more likely to be affected by the change in the law

minimum wages and economic outcomes in europe abstract in this paper we review the arguments and consider evidence on the economic effects of minimum wages in europe we begin by outlining the systems of minimum wages that currently operate in european countries and then consider some evidence on the economic effects of minimum wages in four countries france the netherlands spain and the united kingdom we consider the relation between minimum wage floors and two economic outcomes employment and the distribution of income in working households we find little evidence that minimum wages have a bad effect on jobs and some evidence that they have an equalising impact on the distribution of income among families with someone in work

productivity growth in uk manufacturing and production industries 1948 68 this paper estimates residual productivity growth for twenty eight uk manufacturing and production industries for 1948 68 using a production function approach and the importance of distinguishing between a gross output and value added from of production function is stressed the results are compared to those obtained by the cambridge growth project which uses an input output framework the value added production function gives similar results to the cambridge approach and it is shown that this is not altogether surprising the results from a gross output production function are also shown these estimates are generally lower than those obtained using a value added or net output system which is what would be expected

analyst forecasts and herding behavior the use of analyst forecasts as proxies for investors earnings expectations is commonplace in empirical research an implicit assumption behind their use is that they reflect analysts private information in an unbiased manner as demonstrated here this assumption is not necessarily valid there is shown to be a tendency for analysts to release forecasts closer to prior earnings expectations than is appropriate given their information further analysts exhibit herding behavior whereby they release forecasts similar to those previously announced by other analysts even when this is not justified by their information these results are shown to have interesting empirical implications article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

analyzing the analysts career concerns and biased earnings forecasts this paper examines the career concerns of security analysts we relate long histories of their earnings forecasts to job separations we find that relatively accurate past forecasts lead to favorable career outcomes such as remaining at or moving up to a high status large prestigious brokerage house controlling for accuracy optimistic forecasts relative to the consensus increase the chances of favorable job separations job separations depend much less on accuracy for analysts who cover stocks that are underwritten by their brokerage houses such analysts are also much more likely to be rewarded for optimistic forecasts than other analysts furthermore job separations were much less sensitive to accuracy and somewhat more sensitive to optimism during the stock market mania of the late 1990s these findings suggest that the well documented analyst forecast optimism bias is likely due to incentives to promote stocks

using regional variation in wages to measure the effects of the federal minimum wage the imposition of a national minimum wage standard provides a natural experiment in which the treatment effect varies across states depending on the fraction of workers initially earning less than the new minimum the author exploits this fact to evaluate the effect of the april 1990 increase in the federal minimum wage on teenagers wages employment and school enrollment comparisons of grouped and individual state data confirm that the rise in the minimum wage increased teenagers wages there is no evidence of corresponding losses in teenage employment or changes in teenage school enrollment

analysts herding when does sentiment matter abstractherding among analysts emerges when analysts give priority to their peers opinions instead of their own beliefs or information some circumstances may enhance or restrain this type of behaviour we postulate that market sentiment is one of them this article analyses the effect that investor sentiment may have on analysts herding behaviour in the u k our results suggest that easy situations such as analysing easy to value securities and releasing optimistic information at times of high market sentiment clearly reduce herding practices whereas herding clearly increases in difficult situations when analysts have to release negative information at moments of high investor sentiment

real wage growth technical change and competition in the labor market the paper measures the rate of growth of average labor cost and the real wage for the twenty u s two digit manufacturing industries 1948 76 it is argued that these rates of growth give interesting information which other studies on the real wage ignore the results suggest that the gains from technical advance are shared equally across all labor markets consistent with the competitive paradigm a simple and appealing rationale for the observation that high growth industries show the slowest relative rate of growth of prices is also given t he general theory keynes 1936 unleashed many controversies one of the earliest and still topical controversy is the cyclical behavior of the real wage essentially the real wage employment debate has focussed on whether or not the demand schedule slopes downwards and there have been many studies on this topic producing a variety of conflicting findings a common feature of the real wage employment studies is to abstract away from the growth in the real wage that is bound to occur in a growing economy these studies are primarily concerned with deviations from trend or innovations in the real wage and the theme of this paper is that to ignore the growth in the real wage is to throw away valuable and interesting information this information on real wage growth tells us a great deal about competition in the labor market this study should be seen as being complementary rather than conflicting with the real wage employment studies the existence of a downward sloping demand curve for labor is after all not sufficient and probably not necessary for the functioning of competitive labor markets over the span of years 1948 76 i find that individual u s manufacturing industries record widely varying rates of productivity growth however these same industries tend to show a common rate of growth of the real wage this feature of productivity growth was emphasized by the late salter 1960 in his pathbreaking analysis of technical change he writes there is no tendency for above average increases in labour productivity to be accompanied by above average increases in earnings

financial analyst characteristics and herding behavior in forecasting this study classifies analysts earnings forecasts as herding or bold and finds that 1 boldness likelihood increases with the analyst s prior accuracy brokerage size and experience and declines with the number of industries the analyst follows consistent with theory linking boldness with career concerns and ability 2 bold forecasts are more accurate than herding forecasts and 3 herding forecast revisions are more strongly associated with analysts earnings forecast errors actual earnings forecast than are bold forecast revisions thus bold forecasts incorporate analysts private information more completely and provide more relevant information to investors than herding forecasts

changes in the cyclical pattern of real wages evidence from nine countries 1955 80 monetary policy in the united kingdom the monetarist vice has gripped the economy even longer and similar deflationary policies have been in effect in other western economies interestingly enough these policies were instituted in the context of a prolonged period of economic decline annual average rates of growth of gross domestic product for nine oecd countries fell from 6 8 to 5 o to 2 6 over the periods i955 66 i966 73 and i973 79 2 similarly unemployment has risen dramatically in the last io years the causes of slow growth and high unemployment are undoubtedly various however it is clear that restrictive macroeconomic policy has played an important role that is the recent situation is at least in part attributable to a deliberate effort to induce an economic slump the task of systematically examining the origins and motivations of this policy still awaits us however this paper presents an account of a general development in the pattern of real wages over the business cycle which is a plausible determinant of current policy the evidence indicates that short run cyclical movements in output no longer exert a determinate influence on real wage growth a development which may have been the impetus for long term deflation this account is based on an econometric study of nine countries over the period i955 80 the study has three noteworthy econometric features the first is that data from the nine countries are combined in a pooled model with homogeneous coefficients the use of a cross national sample ensures against the attribution of general theoretical status to particular empirical findings from a single country 3 second the units of observation are business cycle turning

minimum wage exports and growth abstract using an endogenous growth model in an open economy we study the impact of minimum wages on growth for an innovator country we state that a minimum wage shifts efforts from production to r d but only in an open economy thus it speeds up long run growth in proportional to exports calibrations suggest the growth surplus can be significant an empirical study on 11 oecd countries illustrates these results the impact on welfare is ambiguous because the minimum wage induces unemployment however we show that in an open economy a minimum wage associated with unemployment benefits can pareto dominate laissez faire

implications of herding behavior for earnings estimation risk assessment and stock returns experts earnings predictions exhibit positive bias and disappointing accuracy these shortcomings are usually attributed to some combination of incomplete knowledge incompetence and or misrepresentation this article suggests that the human desire for consensus leads to herding behavior among earnings forecasters herding results in a reduction in the dispersion and an increase in the mean of the distribution of expert forecasts creating positive bias and inaccuracy in published earnings estimates investors mistake reduced dispersion for reduced risk and positive bias for high future returns these misperceptions lead to abnormally low returns from stocks with unpredictable earning streams

disentangling the minimum wage puzzle an analysis of worker accessions and separations changes in the legislation in the mid 1980s in portugal provide remarkably good conditions for analysis of the employment effects of mandatory minimum wages as the minimum wage increased sharply for a very specific group of workers relying on a matched employer employee panel data set we model gross worker flows accessions and separations in continuing firms as well as in new firms and those going out of business using a count regression model applied to proportions employment trends for teenagers the affected group are contrasted to those of older workers before and after the raise in the youth minimum wage the major effect on teenagers of a rising minimum wage has been the reduction of separations from the employer which during the period under analysis has compensated for the reduction of accessions to new and continuing firms in this sense our results can reconcile some of the previous evidence in the empirical literature when analyzing the aggregate impact of the minimum wage on youth employment without decomposing it by type of worker flow jel d21 j23 j38

uk wage underpayment implications for the minimum wage dynamic monopsony suggests that due to labour market frictions workers will be paid below their productivity this paper uses the stochastic frontier technique to estimate the degree of this underpayment for uk employees it finds evidence of significant underpayment the estimates are used to examine whether the predictions of dynamic monopsony are empirically accurate no conclusive evidence against this theoretical framework is found the paper also investigates whether payment according to productivity is a sufficient condition for the elimination of the working poor problem due to the existence of an unemployment barrier it finds that the minimum wage is not an effective anti poverty policy

employment and the introduction of a minimum wage in britain there has been and will continue to be a lot of controversy regarding the introduction of a minimum wage in britain much has been said about the economic effects of a minimum wage about the level at which it should or could be set about how other workers would be affected and about how a minimum wage may interact with the benefit system as the labour or liberal democrat parties will if they win the next election introduce a minimum wage it is evident that a clear and informed discussion of the economic effects is important most of the existing debate has concentrated on its impact on jobs and here the discussion varies from pure ideology to consideration of the statistical evidence the former is typified by the comments of a number of government ministers a recent example is that by ian lang the independent i3 september i995 who said that a minimum wage set at f4 i5 an hour would cost at least 950 000 jobs this comes from assuming large knock on effects from a minimum wage by asserting that the average worker would claim a pay increase of half the magnitude of the increase received by low paid workers when their pay is raised to the minimum and then that this wage increase has to transmit into job loss the qualitative prediction of job loss is of course entirely in line with orthodox models of the labour market which unambiguously predict that increases in minimum wages price workers out of jobs 1 it is also in line with the sentiments outlined in the recent oecd jobs study of i994 which stresses that minimum wages cause job loss in the member countries for example the jobs study argues that governments should ensure sufficient differentiation in wage rates by age and region to prevent the minimum wage from harming employment prospects for young people or low productivity regions oecd jobs study p 46 however a more recent body of work questions this conventional view quite a lot of empirical evidence has been accumulated in recent years that fails to find any evidence ofjob loss associated with minimum wages the emphasis seems to have shifted from how negative are the employment effects to is there an employment effect and in some circles what potential is there for a positive effect after a brief review of the history of minimum wages in britain we discuss this recent work in the next section of the paper on the

product market evidence on the employment effects of the minimum wage we infer the employment response to a minimum wage change by calibrating a model of employment for the restaurant industry whereas perfect competition implies that employment falls and prices rise after a minimum wage increase the monopsony model potentially implies the opposite we show that estimated price responses are consistent with the competitive model we place fairly tight bounds on the employment response with the most plausible parameter values suggesting that a 10 increase in the minimum wage lowers low skill employment by 2 4 and total restaurant employment by 1 3

low pay and income in urban and rural areas evidence from the british household panel survey this paper examines the extent of urban rural differences in low pay and the link between low pay and low incomes using data on urban and rural residents from the british household panel survey for 1991 98 the results suggest that overall urban wages were significantly less than accessible rural but significantly more than remote rural wages even after adjustments were made for differences in observed characteristics a lower percentage of urban workers who experienced low pay were also resident in low income households lower urban in employment and in self employment poverty were found relative to poor remote rural households even after differences in the characteristics across the different samples were controlled for

real wage and real labour cost growth 1948 81 a disaggregated study the paper examines growth rates in labour cost and real wages for up to 38 separate uk industry categories this reveals much interesting information about labour markets which is ignored in most studies of the real wage the latter are mostly concerned with disequilibrium behaviour of the real wage the theoretical section of the paper explores the relationship between the growth rates in productivity real wages labour costs profit rates and value added prices relative to average prices under the assumption that factor markets are competitive the second section computes these respective growth rates and explores how well the competitive hypothesis stands up the results indicate reasonable agreement with the competitive thesis

the employment real wage relationship an international study the neoclassical and keynesian theories of employment both predict an inverse relationship between employment and real wages in the short run the observed correlation between employment and real wages however has usually failed to conform to this prediction dunlop 1938 and tarshis 1939 reported a positive correlation between real and money wages which given procyclical movement of money wages was interpreted as evidence against the theoretical prediction the statistical significance of these results was however challenged by ruggles 1940 and tobin 1948 more recent studies by kuh 1966 and bodkin 1969 failed to detect a significant relationship between real wages and employment these findings stimulated a series of contributions by solow and stiglitz 1968 barro and grossman 1971 1976 and others developing alternative models not apparently refuted by the evidence barro and grossman recast macro theory under the assumption that markets did not clear modigliani 1977 argued that the observed relationship between employment and real wages could be accounted for in an oligopolistic model of firm behavior thus both the competitive and equilibrium assumptions of the classical model were diagnosed as the sources of its apparent empirical refutation

conflict of interest and the credibility of underwriter analyst recommendations brokerage analysts frequently comment on and sometimes recommend companies that their firms have recently taken public we show that stocks that underwriter analysts recommend perform more poorly than buy recommendations by unaffiliated brokers prior to at the time of and subsequent to the recommendation date we conclude that the recommendations by underwriter analysts show significant evidence of bias we show also that the market does not recognize the full extent of this bias the results suggest a potential conflict of interest inherent in the different functions that investment bankers perform

inefficiency in analysts earnings forecasts systematic misreaction or systematic optimism a rational analysis of analyst behavior predicts that analysts immediately and without bias incorporate information into their forecasts several studies document analysts tendency to systematically underreact to information underreaction is inconsistent with rationality other studies indicate that analysts systematically overreact to new information or that they are systematically optimistic this study discriminates between these three hypotheses by examining the interaction between the nature of information and the type of reaction by analysts the evidence indicates that analysts underreact to negative information but overreact to positive information these results are consistent with systematic optimism in response to information the literature on financial analysts defines the phrase forecast inefficiency to mean forecasts that fail to accurately incorporate new information on a timely basis and or that are biased these forecasts have also been described as irrational or suboptimal prior studies report inefficiency in analysts forecasts finding that they are upwardly biased and inaccurately reflect available information some studies conclude from this that analysts underreact to information other studies conclude that analysts overreact if markets treat analysts forecasts as both rational and statistically optimal then inefficient forecasts could have important implications for the efficiency of pricing in securities markets in this paper we reexamine the apparent tendency of analysts to misinterpret earnings information the intent of this study is to discriminate between three hypotheses 1 that analysts systematically underreact to new earnings information 2 that analysts systematically overreact to new earnings information and 3 that analysts are systematically optimistic in their reactions for hypotheses 1 and 2 the direction of the misinterpretation i e underor overreaction is independent of the nature of the information received in contrast hypothesis 3 predicts that analysts are optimistic in interpreting

the three p s of total risk management current risk management practices are based on probabilities of extreme dollar losses e g measures like value at risk but these measures capture only part of the story any complete risk management system must address two other important factors prices and preferences together with probabilities these compose the three p s of total risk management this article describes how the three p s interact to determine sensible risk profiles for corporations and for individuals guidelines for how much risk to bear and how much to hedge by synthesizing existing research in economics psychology and decision sciences and through an ambitious research agenda to extend this synthesis into other disciplines a complete and systematic approach to rational decision making in an uncertain world is within reach

why bank credit policies fluctuate a theory and some evidence in a rational profit maximizing world banks should msdntain a credit policy of lending if and only if borrowers have positive net present value projects why then are changes in credit policy seemingly correlated with changes in the condition of those demanding credit this paper argues that rational bank managers with short horizons will set credit policies that influence and are influenced by other banks and demand side conditions this leads to a theory of low frequency business cycles driven by bank credit policies evidence from the banking crisis in new england in the early 1990s is consistent with the assumptions and predictions of the theory

comment on david neumark and william wascher employment effects of minimum and subminimum wages panel data on state minimum wage laws in their article published in the minimum wage research symposium in the october 1992 issue of this journal industrial and laborrelations review volume 45 number 1 pp 55 81 david neumark and william wascher claim to find empirical support for three propositions 1 a higher minimum wage leads to a lower teenage employmentpopulation rate 2 the effect of the minimum wage on employment can be seen within a year but becomes stronger after two years and 3 in states with legal subminimum wages a significant fraction of teenage employees are paid a subminimum wage and the availability of a subminimum wage blunts the disemployment effect of the minimum wage the same symposium contains three papers by us that present empirical evidence suggesting conclusions opposite those of neumark and wascher 1 since neumark and