the interest group theory of financial development in china openness and the role of interest groups the interest group theory of financial development predicts that the incumbents opposition to financial development will be weaker when an economy is open to both trade and capital flows based on regressions of financial development on trade and financial openness existing studies only provide indirect tests of the hypothesis and deliver mixed findings this paper proposes models for direct tests of interest group theory for china using chinese cross province data we define and measure interest groups based on the close tie between state owned enterprises and local government in china the empirical results show that the opposition from interest groups to financial development cannot be weakened in provinces with high trade or financial openness alone however the opposition is indeed weakened in provinces with high levels of both trade and financial openness these results provide robust support for interest group theory in accounting for cross province differences and time series variation in financial development in china

politics time and the laffer curve why should a rationally motivated political decision process generate an inverse relationship between tax rates and tax revenues there would never seem a logical reason for increasing tax rates beyond maximum revenue limits in this note we explain how such a position can emerge and show why once in such a position political decision makers may find it difficult to escape

product market imperfections and loan commitments i show in a model of competitive banks that the characteristics of loan contracts are affected by product market imperfections in the borrower s industry a bank loan commitment increases the value of a borrower firm operating in an imperfectly competitive industry and thus dominates a simple loan even in the absence of risk sharing considerations and informational asymmetries between the borrower and the bank while it is individually rational for a firm to obtain a loan commitment all the firms in that industry taken together are made worse off by the existence of loan commitments a loan commitment is a contract guaranteeing future availability of credit to a borrower at a prespecified fixed or stochastic interest rate although bank loan commitments are an important financial instrument and there exists an extensive literature analyzing them the rationale for their existence is still a matter of research this paper provides an explanation for the existence of bank loan commitments to borrowers from industries in which there is imperfect competition in the product market it is shown that in such industries the option to acquire financing at predetermined rates enhances the borrower s strategic power and thus creates value for the individual borrower consider an industry with imperfect competition where firms face the problem of noncooperatively exploiting a product market opportunity the optimal product market strategy of a firm depends on the output of its rivals a firm with access to resources at a lower marginal cost than its competitors has a strategic advantage that it can exploit to gain a larger market share and profits it is shown here that a firm that does not have such a strategic advantage can create it by purchasing for a fixed initial fee an option to acquire a factor of production such as financing at favorable terms specifically by initially negotiating a bank loan commitment the firm can finance an expansion of output to meet a strategic contingency at more favorable terms than would be possible if the expansion had to be financed in the spot market the ability to exercise the commitment enables the firm to threaten its rivals strategically and moves the industry to an equilibrium more favorable to that firm thus creating value for the borrower it is shown below that it is optimal for all firms to acquire bank loan commitments altering the industry equilibrium in the process

the role of american depositary receipts in the development of emerging equity markets this paper finds that the growth and expansion of u s cross listings by firms from emerging markets around the world facilitated an expansion of cross border equity flows and overall development of their stock markets during the 1990s however these benefits have negative spillover effects the capitalization and turnover ratios of local market firms that do not pursue overseas listings decline as u s cross listings in the form of american depositary receipts adrs increase in size and scope we investigate various possible sources of these negative spillovers and offer new evidence that the growth of adrs neither facilitates nor hinders local market development but represent an outcome of poorly functioning local markets policy implications are discussed

an analysis of the laffer curve the laffer curve shows the relationship between tax revenue and the personal income tax rate with tax revenue being a presumably concave function of the tax rate and equal to zero at tax rates of zero percent and 100 percent if the personal income tax rate is reduced then tax revenue will decrease increase if the economy is on the positively negatively sloped section of the laffer curve this paper derives a sufficient condition for the economy to be on the positively sloped section of the laffer curve in light of the current knowledge of the elasticities of supply of labor and supply of saving it is difficult to escape the conclusion that a decrease in u s personal income tax rates will decrease tax revenue

the financial development and growth nexus a meta analysis this is the accepted manuscript the final version is available from wiley at http onlinelibrary wiley com doi 10 1111 joes 12086 abstract

financial development and financing constraints international evidence from the structural investment model this article provides evidence that financial development impacts growth by reducing financing constraints that would otherwise distort efficient allocation of investment the financing constraints are inferred from the investment euler equation by assuming that the firm s stochastic discount factor is a function of the firm s financial position specifically the stock of liquid assets the magnitude of the changes in the cost of capital is twice as large in a country with a low level of financial development as in a country with an average level of financial development the size effect business cycles and legal environment effects are also considered copyright 2003 oxford university press

bank mergers and crime the real and social effects of credit market competition using a unique sample of commercial loans and mergers between large banks we provide micro level within county evidence linking credit conditions to economic development and find a spillover effect on crime neighborhoods that experience more bank mergers are subject to higher interest rates diminished local construction lower prices an influx of poorer households and higher property crime in subsequent years the elasticity of property crime with respect to merger induced banking concentration is 0 18 we show that these results are not likely due to reverse causation and confirm the central findings using state branching deregulation to instrument for bank competition we examine the real and social impact of local credit competition by documenting a link between the competitiveness of the local banking market credit conditions urban development and crime several recent studies peek and rosengren 2000 cetorelli and gambera 2001 klein peek and rosengren 2002 and burgess and pande 2003 tie credit market imperfections to diminished real economic activity and growth other studies connect the economic environment to property crime freeman 1999 levitt 2001 raphael and winter ebmer 2001 and nilsson 2004 it is reasonable to hypothesize therefore that reductions in bank competition may lead to economic decline and subsequently increases in property crime we empirically investigate the effects of bank consolidation and increased market power on credit availability and real activity using a unique sample of commercial loans and mergers between large banks in the 1990s we provide micro level evidence that garmaise is from the ucla anderson school and moskowitz is from the graduate school of business university of chicago and nber we have benefited from the suggestions and comments of tony bernardo marianne bertrand phillip bond doug diamond mark duggan eugene fama

politics deficits and the laffer curve even if there were only a positively sloped tax rate tax revenue relationship or if a negatively sloped region were not in the relevant tax rate range the existence of a lagged private sector response to tax rate change that exceeds the relevant time horizon for political decision makers is conducive to the existence of a budget deficit bias given the existence of a negatively sloped region of the laffer curve especially if it begins at reasonably low tax rates determined attempts to eliminate or just reduce deficits can become self defeating particularly if there is a structural deficit 3 moreover once the economy is on the downward sloping portion of the laffer curve a combination of political expediency uncertainty about the shape of the curve and a common belief that tax rate increases reduce deficits all can conspire to keep the budget trapped in deficit finally given the existence of inflation and a marginally progressive income tax deficit growth may be less if there is indexation of income tax rates to inflation contrary to conventional wisdom

on the possibility of an inverse relationship between tax rates and government revenues abstract when arthur laffer and other supply side advocates plot total tax revenue as a function of a particular tax rate they draw an upward sloping segment called the normal range followed by a downward sloping segment called the prohibitive range a brief literature review indicates that tax rates on the prohibitive range in theoretical and empirical models have been the result of particularly high tax rates high elasticity parameters or both the labor tax rate which maximizes total revenue for example will depend on the assumed labor supply elasticity this paper introduces a new curve which summarizes the tax rate and elasticity combinations that result in maximum revenues separating the normal area from the prohibitive area a general purpose empirical u s general equilibrium model is used to plot the laffer curve for several elasticities and to plot the newly introduced curve using the labor tax example results indicate that the u s could conceivably be operating in the prohibitive area but that the tax wedge or labor supply elasticity would have to be much higher than most estimates would suggest

does judicial efficiency lower the cost of credit the authors investigate the effect of judicial efficiency on banks lending spreads for a large cross section of countries they measure bank interest rate spreads for 106 countries at an aggregate level and for 32 countries at the level of individual banks the authors find that after controlling for a number of other country characteristics judicial efficiency in addition to inflation is the main driver of interest rate spreads across countries this suggests that in addition to improving the overall macroeconomic climate in a country judicial reforms through a better enforcement of legal contracts are critical to lowering the cost of financial intermediation for households and firms

establishing property rights establishing secure property rights in transition economies amounts to solving two problems inefficiency structures of control rights over assets and poor contract enforcement politicians and bureaucrats still wield excessive control over assets which results in inefficient underinvestment by entrepreneurs corruption is one way of getting around political control but the drawbacks are considerable particularly the limited enforceability of corruption contracts more workable strategies for establishing property rights in transition economies are giving equity to the bureaucrats and other parties that have control reforming the civil service and removing bureaucratic control rights through privatization russia s experience shows how privatization combined with equity incentives for enterprise insiders transfers control rights from the bureaucrats and stimulates political and economic pressures to protect private property rights

finance and trade a cross country empirical analysis on the impact of financial development and asset tangibility on international trade summary this paper investigates the interplay between financial development asset tangibility and international trade using industry level data on firms dependence on external finance and firms asset tangibility for 27 industries in 42 countries we find that economies with higher levels of financial development have higher export shares and trade balance in industries with more intangible assets using the same dataset we also show that the interplay between property rights protection and asset tangibility influences the pattern of trade higher levels of property rights protection lead to higher export shares and trade balance in industries with more intangible assets

global capital flows and financing constraints firms often cite financing constraints as one of their primary obstacles to investment global capital flows by bringing in scarce capital may ease the financing constraints of host country firms but if incoming foreign investors borrow heavily from domestic banks foreign direct investment may exacerbate financing constraints by crowding host country firms out of domestic capital markets combining a unique cross country firm level panel with time series data on restrictions on international transactions and capital flows harrison love and mcmillan find that different measures of global flows are associated with a reduction in firm level financing constraints first the authors show that one type of capital inflow foreign direct investment is associated with a reduction in financing constraints second they test whether restrictions on international transactions affects the financing constraints of firms the results suggest that only one type of restriction those on capital account transactions negatively affects firms financing constraints the authors also show that multinational firms are not financially constrained and do not appear to be sensitive to the level of foreign direct investment this implies that foreign direct investment eases financing constraints for non multinational firms finally the authors show that 1 foreign direct investment only eases financing constraints in the non g7 countries and 2 other kinds of flows such as portfolio investment have no impact on financing constraints

can informal firms hurt registered smes access to credit using firm level survey responses from 2009 to 2012 we examine whether competitors from the informal sector affect the credit constraints of registered smes in 86 countries worldwide we also investigate the role played by the quality of institutional environment in exacerbating or in alleviating such effect a weak quality of institutional environment strengthens inter linkages between the formal and the informal sectors increases the costs and decreases the benefits assumed by formal firms and reduces the costs attributed to informality moreover it also results in a large informal economy which influences perceptions about the substitutability between formal and informal goods and law evasion our findings indicate that registered smes facing competition from informal firms are more likely to be credit constrained than other formal smes that are not confronted with such competition this result is consistent with the parasite view and the entrepreneurial perspective of informality which assert that informal firms are capable of competing against registered smes and hurting the latter s profits further we find that such adverse impact manifests only in countries with weak rule of law and high degree of corruption and bureaucracy our results also show that registered micro and small firms are more likely to be affected by the presence of informal firm competitors than medium sized firms this is because the benefits of formality that include access to credit from financial institutions increase with firm size on the whole our findings suggest that governments must enhance their role in increasing access to credit to smaller firms and in providing incentives for informal firms to be integrated in the formal economy moreover in order to achieve inclusive growth our results highlight the importance of improving the business environment which affects all entrepreneurs

the determinants of financing obstacles the authors use survey data on a sample of over 10 000 firms from 80 countries to assess 1 how successful a priori classifications are in distinguishing between financially constrained and unconstrained firms and 2 more generally the determinants of financing obstacles of firms they find that older larger and foreign owned firms report less financing obstacles their findings thus confirm the usefulness of size age and ownership as a priori classifications of financing constraints while they shed doubts on other classifications used in the literature their results also suggest that institutional development is the most important country characteristic explaining cross country variation in firms financing obstacles

reaching out access to and use of banking services across countries the authors 1 present new indicators of banking sector penetration across 99 countries based on a survey of bank regulatory authorities 2 show that these indicators predict household and firm use of banking services 3 explore the association between the outreach indicators and measures of financial institutional and infrastructure development across countries and 4 relate these banking outreach indicators to measures of firms financing constraints in particular they find that greater outreach is correlated with standard measures of financial development as well as with economic activity controlling for these factors the authors find that better communication and transport infrastructure and better governance are also associated with greater outreach government ownership of financial institutions translates into lower access while more concentrated banking systems are associated with greater outreach finally firms in countries with higher branch and atm penetration and higher use of loan services report lower financing obstacles thus linking banking sector outreach to the alleviation of firms financing constraints

national culture and corporate debt maturity abstract we investigate the influence of national culture on corporate debt maturity choice based on the framework of williamson we argue that culture located in social embeddedness level can shape contracting environments by serving as an informal constraint that affects human actors incentives and choices in market exchange we therefore expect national culture to be related to debt maturity structure after controlling for legal political financial and economic institutions using hofstede s four cultural dimensions uncertainty avoidance collectivism power distance and masculinity as proxies for culture and using a sample of 114 723 firm years from 40 countries over the 1991 2006 period we find robust evidence that firms located in countries with high uncertainty avoidance high collectivism high power distance and high masculinity tend to use more short term debt we interpret our results as consistent with the view that national culture helps explain cross country variations in the maturity structure of corporate debt

law finance and firm growth we investigate how differences in legal and financial systems affect firms use of external financing to fund growth we show that in countries whose legal systems score high on an efficiency index a greater proportion of firms use long term external financing an active though not necessarily large stock market and a large banking sector are also associated with externally financed firm growth the increased reliance on external financing occurs in part because established firms in countries with well functioning institutions have lower profit rates government subsidies to industry do not increase the proportion of firms relying on external financing the corporate finance literature suggests that market imperfections caused by conflicts of interest and informational asymmetries between corporate insiders and investors constrain firms in their ability to fund investment projects the magnitude of these imperfections depends in part on the effectiveness of the legal and financial systems because these systems differ across countries the literature implies that there should exist systematic cross country differences in firms ability to obtain external capital to finance investment in this paper we examine whether the underdevelopment of legal and financial systems does prevent firms in some countries from investing in potentially profitable growth opportunities in particular we focus on the use of long term debt or external equity to fund growth see our earlier work demirgut kunt and maksimovic 1996a which compares firms financial structures in developed and developing countries and finds the greatest difference to be in the provision of long term credit we estimate a financial planning model to obtain the maximum growth rate that each firm in our thirty country sample could attain without access to long term financing we then compare these predicted growth rates to growth rates realized by firms in countries with differing degrees of development in their legal and financial systems our approach enables us to identify specific characteristics of the legal and financial systems that are associated with long term financing of firm growth thus we provide a micro level test of the hypoth

the institutions and governance of economic development and reform why are the ambitions of economic development practitioners and reformers so often disappointed one answer is that development policymakers and reformers are congenital optimists another answer is that good plans are regularly defeated by those who occupy strategic positions an intermediate answer is that institutions are important yet are persistently neglected in the planning process the article takes a bottom up microanalytical approach to economic development and reform it examines the governance of contract investment and private ordering through the lens of transaction cost economizing and it assesses the efficacy of the de facto as against the de jure institutional environment with respect to credible commitments in effect institutional economists are cast in the role of archaeologists of economic reform and development with the task of unpacking the lessons of the past to inform choices and programs for the future

legal environment finance channels and investment the east african example abstract how do legal environments and finance affect investments by firms in the east african community property rights external and internal finance channels key conduits of the transmission mechanism from legal environment to investment individually and interactively affect firms decision to invest firms that perceive secure property rights are more likely to invest in fixed capital the interactions suggest governments in this community would do well to pursue investment growth policies that slant heavily towards financial markets deepening while not ignoring enhancement of legal infrastructures overall property rights external finance internal finance firm size and an export orientation are important determinants of the investment decision

a new database on the structure and development of the financial sector this article introduces a new database of indicators of financial structure and financial development across countries and over time the database is unique in that it combines a wide variety of indicators that measure the size activity and efficiency of financial intermediaries and markets it improves on previous efforts by presenting data on the public share of commercial banks introducing indicators of the size and activity of nonbank financial institutions and constructing measures of the size of bond and primary equity markets this article introduces a new database the first to provide comprehensive measures of the development structure and performance of the financial sector this database is the first to define and construct indicators of the size and activity of nonbank financial intermediaries such as insurance companies pension funds and non deposit money banks it is also the first to include indicators of the size of primary equity markets and primary and secondary bond markets in constructing the database authors carefully deflate measures and match stock and flow variables

bank competition and access to finance international evidence using a unique database for 74 countries and for firms of small medium and large size we assess the effect of banking market structure on the access of firms to bank finance we find that bank concentration increases obstacles to obtaining finance but only in countries with low levels of economic and institutional development a larger share of foreign owned banks and an efficient credit registry dampen the effect of concentration on financing obstacles while the effect is exacerbated by more restrictions on banks activities more government interference in the banking sector and a larger share of government owned banks

capital structure decisions during a firm s life cycle the study reported here examines the financing choices of small and medium sized firms i e those most vulnerable to information and incentive problems through the lens of the business life cycle we argue that the controversy in the empirical literature regarding the determinants of capital structure decisions is based on a failure to take into account the different degrees of information opacity and consequently firms characteristics and needs at specific stages of their life cycles the results show that in a bank oriented country firms tend to adopt specific financing strategies and a different hierarchy of financial decision making as they progress through the phases of their business life cycle contrary to conventional wisdom debt is shown to be fundamental to business activities in the early stages representing the first choice by contrast in the maturity stage firms re balance their capital structure gradually substituting debt for internal capital and for firms that have consolidated their business the pecking order theory shows a high degree of application this financial life cycle pattern seems to be homogeneous for different industries and consistent over time

canadian cpi announcements over the disinflationary cycle evidence from the foreign exchange rate market previous announcement studies have focused primarily on market reactions to money announcements this study examines the behaviour of exchange rates to canadian cpi announcements the reaction to the monthly cpi announcements provides a unique opportunity to test hypothesis whether the bank of canada gained credibility after it announced a change in objective of price stability in january 1988 and in february 1991 the post 1988 spot and forward exchange rate actions are found to be conistent with the policy anticipation hypothesis suggesting that the bank did gain credibility whenever inflations is larger than anticipated the canadian dollar appreciates because markets expect the bank to counteract the inflaction shock an interesting result is that the announcement effect is found to by aymmetric

access to finance an unfinished agenda recent data compilations show that many poor and non poor people in many developing countries face a high degree of financial exclusion and high barriers in access to finance theory and empirical evidence point to the critical role that improved access to finance has in promoting growth and reducing income inequality an extensive literature shows the channels through which finance promotes enterprise growth and improves aggregate resource allocation there is less evidence at the household level however and on the effectiveness of policies to overcome financial exclusion the article summarizes recent efforts to measure and analyze the impact of access to finance and discusses the unfinished research agenda

swedish tax rates labor supply and tax revenues effective marginal tax rates on labor income for the representative swede have increased from roughly 50 percent in 1959 to 80 percent today the effects of this increase in the level of taxation are examined using a two sector model parameterized to correspond to the swedish economy the model contains a single household which allocates labor to either taxed essentially market or untaxed largely household uses the estimated long run effects are sufficient to explain up to 75 percent of the recent decline in the measured growth rate of the swedish gnp calculations of total tax revenues are also derived from the model these peak when the tax rate is approximately 70 percent indicating that sweden is presently on the downward sloping portion of its laffer curve

why countries differ in thin capitalization rules the role of financial development abstract the purpose of thin capitalization rules is to limit multinational firms possibilities of engaging in tax planning via debt shifting this paper analyzes the optimal design of thin capitalization rules in the presence of financial frictions when a host country in the first stage chooses the type of thin capitalization rule and then in the second stage decides about the strictness we show that welfare under a safe haven rule is higher than under an earnings stripping rule if firms are not able to manipulate the interest rate on internal loans welfare however can be higher under an earnings stripping rule if firms are able to manipulate the interest rate on internal loans we also show that the optimal level of internal interest deductions decreases with the financial development of the host country our results are consistent with countries actual policy choice

the real effect of banking crises finance or asset allocation effects some international evidence abstract this paper analyzes whether the decline in economic growth that follows a banking crisis occurs because of a reduction in the amount of credit available finance effect or a worsening in the allocation of investable resources asset allocation effect we use a sample of more than 2500 industrial firms in 18 developed and developing countries that experienced 19 systemic banking crises between 1989 and 2007 the results indicate that banking crises negatively affect firms intangible investments which intensifies the economic downturn the negative growth effect produced by the worsening of the investment allocation is stronger in countries with highly developed financial systems and institutions

does mobile money use increase firms investment evidence from enterprise surveys in kenya uganda and tanzania private investment can be an important engine of economic growth in east african countries which despite recent growth rates are still plagued with adverse economic conditions against this backdrop there has been substantial penetration of mobile money moving beyond simple person to person exchanges toward adoption by private firms this study explores whether there is a relationship between firm adoption of mobile money and firm investment using firm level data that are nationally representative of the private sector in three east african countries kenya tanzania and uganda a positive relationship is found between mobile money use and the probability of a firm s purchase of fixed assets this relationship is attributed to reduced transaction costs increased liquidity and increased credit worthiness associated with the use of mobile phone financial services

investor protection optimal incentives and economic growth does investor protection foster economic growth to assess the widely held affirmative view we introduce investor protection into a standard overlapping generations model of capital accumulation better investor protection implies better risk sharing because of entrepreneurs risk aversion this results in a larger demand for capital this is the demand effect a second effect the supply effect follows from general equilibrium restrictions better protection i e higher demand increases the interest rate and lowers the income of entrepreneurs decreasing current savings and next period s supply of capital the supply effect is stronger the tighter are the restrictions on capital flows our model thus predicts that the positive effect of investor protection on growth is stronger for countries with lower restrictions cross country data provide support for this prediction as does the detailed examination of the growth experiences of south korea and india

why does the law matter investor protection and its effects on investment finance and growth investor protection is associated with greater investment sensitivity to q and lower investment sensitivity to cash flow finance plays a role in causing these effects in countries with strong investor protection external finance increases more strongly with q and declines more strongly with cash flow we further find that q and cash flow sensitivities are associated with ex post investment efficiency investment predicts growth and profits more strongly in countries with greater q sensitivities and lower cash flow sensitivities the paper s findings are broadly consistent with investor protection promoting accurate share prices reducing financial constraints and encouraging efficient investment in this paper we study how investor protection affects firm level resource allocations our analyses center on two hypotheses our first hypothesis is that stock prices more strongly predict both investment and external finance in countries with stronger investor protection laws tobin 1969 shows in a frictionless setting that marginal q predicts real investment in this framework high marginal q firms should all else equal also raise the most capital as these firms invest more we use average q q as a proxy for marginal q and test whether investment and external finance are more sensitive to q in countries with stronger investor protection laws