money deficit and public debt in the united states this study estimates the underlying parameters in a dynamic game between the fiscal and monetary authorities over the determination of public debt these estimates reveal the policymakers attitude towards the goal of stabilizing the time path of public debt the central finding is that in the united states during the 1955 85 period this goal has been pursued by the fiscal authority but not by the central bank monetary policy has not monetized the stock of public debt outstanding whereas cyclically adjusted net of interest fiscal deficits have been reduced to offset increases in the stock of debt in circulation copyright 1989 by mit press

bounded price variation and rational expectations in endogenous switching model of the u s corn market a model that includes bounded price variation and rational expectations by producers is estimated for the u s corn market the resulting model specification is highly nonlinear though since the probability of market equilibrium must be determined endogenously unlike previous research the cross equation restrictions implied by the rational expectations hypothesis are incorporated in the bounded prices model by using fair and taylor s 1983 procedure for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of nonlinear rational expectations models the resulting model is compared against a standard equilibrium model with naive expectations the results show the bounded prices model is a superior specification copyright 1989 by mit press

the emergence of new technology enterprises in china a study of endogenous capability building via restructuring this article examines the emergence of a vital non state sector consisting of new technology enterprises ntes spun off from existing r d institutions during the economic reforms in china most ntes are engaged in computer and information technology based on an outline of the development of the ntes this article focuses on an analysis of a few critical aspects of the restructuring process through which the ntes gained entry to a sphere of innovative economic activity the analysis shows that while the newly emerged ntes have to have international levels of competitiveness the restructuring process has been highly specific to the local society the article concludes by stressing the critical importance of the organisational innovation of the economic actors and the creation of institutions to support creative economic activities if developing countries are to cope with the pressing trends of rapid technological progress and economic globalisation

expectations supply response and marketing boards an example from kenya whether farmers form price expectations adaptively or in a forward looking manner has implications for supply response analysis and for the implementation of agricultural policy reform this paper examines the formation of price expectations by kenyan export crop farmers who market their produce through a monopsonistic parastatal the analysis allows for relaxation of the small country assumption within a rational expectations framework production behavior is consistent with expectations of future prices based on indicators of aggregate supply and of the marketing board s purchasing capacity the finding that price forecasts may be formed using information other than previous price levels implies that marketing reforms that raise prices may not raise the relevant price expectations to elicit a positive supply response market reforms should be sensitive to farmers interpretation of institutional signals as well as previous prices

are chinese cities too small this paper models and estimates net urban agglomeration economies for cities economic models of cities postulate an inverted u shape of real income per worker against city employment where the inverted u shifts with industrial composition across the urban hierarchy of cities this relationship has never been estimated in part because of data requirements china has the necessary data and context we find that urban agglomeration benefits are high real incomes per worker rise sharply with increases in city size from a low level they level out nearer the peak and then decline very slowly past the peak we find that a large fraction of cities in china are undersized due to nationally imposed strong migration restrictions resulting in large income losses

estimation of dynamic nonlinear rational expectations models of primary commodity markets with stochastic dynamic programming and disequilibrium maximum likelihood methods are combined to estimate a dynamic nonlinear rational expectations model of a market for a storable primary commodity the estimation model captures the inherently nonlinear structure of private stockholding dynamics the disequilibrium effects of government buffer stock intervention and the impact of price expectations and risk on private supply and stockholding decisions copyright 1993 by mit press

variability in forecasts in a nonlinear model of the us beef sector 1987 variability in forecasts in a nonlinear model of the us beef sector applied economics vol 19 no 11 pp 1457 1470

a note on fiscal policy under flexible exchange rates abstract the paper studies the effects of fiscal policy under flexible exchange rates the demand for real money balances in terms of the expenditure basket of goods is a function of income in terms of the same basket it turns out that fiscal expansion is expansionary neutral or contractionary in the money wage model depending on whether the income elasticity of the demand for money is smaller than equal to or greater than one the price of domestic goods rises is unchanged or declines in this model depending on whether the income elasticity is smaller than equal to or greater than one

new institutional economics in the post socialist transformation debate the paper suggests that there is a tension between the basic tenant of new institutional economics nie and the manner in which it has been applied in the debate on post socialist transformation this tension is explored in the context of four main perspectives on nie i property rights ii transaction costs economics iii new economic history and iv evolutionary economics there are two main arguments the first is that the transformation phase should be seen as open ended rather than a closed process where the pure market is the inevitable end result the second is that although the nie literature touches on most of the issues which are relevant to post socialist transformation the insights that it offers are still too general for policy guidance

economic growth income inequality and poverty in china under economic reforms china s gross domestic product gdp more than quadrupled between 1978 and 1996 under economic reforms per capita disposable incomes more than tripled in the cities and almost quadrupled in the rural areas however rapid economic growth brought about large income inequality which slowed down poverty reduction in 1995 there were still 70 170 million people living in poverty this article aims to assess the relationship between economic growth income inequality and poverty using both secondary and household survey data the main findings are 1 urban rural divide and spatial inequality are two major factors accounting for overall income inequality 2 non wage and non farm incomes are more unequally distributed than wage and farm incomes and 3 the incidence of poverty is very sensitive to the changes in per capita income and inequality

a theoretical and empirical approach to the value of information in risky markets a reply the theory of the competitive firm under price uncertainty is used to develop a money metric of a producer s willingness to pay for additional information this concept is extended to the market by formulating ex ante and ex post measures of the value of a rational expectations forecast the empirical feasibility of these measures are demonstrated by application to a simple two equation model of an agricultural market this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

money and monetization in china s economic reform in addition to privatization marketization liberalization and pragmatization monetization has been argued as the fifth feature in china s economic reform if monetization is taken to mean a process through which variations in money supply or interest rate are to affect macroeconomic variables the construction of four causality relationships between interest rate and investment and money and national income do not support the evidence of such a process in china between the late 1970s and early 1990s

partner selection and venturing success the case of joint ventures with firms in the people s republic of china it has been hypothesized in the international joint venture ijv literature that partner selection affects interpartner fit which in turn influences a synergistic effect on ijv performance this study investigates the relationship between ijv success and the strategic and organizational traits of local partners we address this issue in the context of an emerging economy p r china newly emerging economies have in recent years become major hosts of direct investment by multinational corporations mncs because these rapidly expanding economies characterized by an exploding demand previously stifled by ideologically based government intervention provide tremendous opportunities which mncs can preempt mncs in such economies however face the challenges of structural reform weak market structure poorly specified property rights and institutional uncertainty right local partners can help mncs boost market expansion obtain insightful information mitigate operational risks and provide country specific knowledge the analysis of the data obtained from china suggests that both strategic and organizational traits of local partners are significantly associated with some individual dimensions of ijv performance among strategic traits absorptive capacity product relatedness and market power are favorable to ijvs market and financial outcomes market power and experience significantly reduce ijvs operational uncertainties of organizational traits international experience and organizational collaboration are important for ijvs not only profitability and stability but also local market expansion and export growth organizational form and size influence ijvs local market performance the findings provided by this study can help mncs determine what criteria they should use in opting for local partners and what criteria are vital to their goal accomplishment those investors seeking local market expansion should select those local partners that have rich market experience superior market position high absorptive capacity and related product diversification with the ijvs those seeking profitability and stability should select local firms that have superior international experience longer organizational collaboration and greater market power while mncs should use appropriate strategic and organizational criteria to select local partners the host government or local firms can try to make these traits available to attract more stable and profitable foreign direct investment

risk behavior and rational expectations in the u s broiler market this study examines the empirical implications of extending the rational expectations hypothesis reh to include price uncertainty a general estimation framework that incorporates both the restrictions on structural parameters and the variance covariance terms is developed garch time series processes are used to generate time varying expectations of both the means and the variances of exogenous variables the empirical application is with a quarterly model of the u s broiler industry the results indicate that the rational expectation of price variance is an important determinant of broiler supply a formal test indicates that the restrictions implied by the reh cannot be rejected

dynamic equilibrium in markets for perennial crops a dynamic equilibrium model for perennial crop markets is formulated price expectations are formed according to perfect foresight and both the age composition of the crop and the optimal rotation are determined endogenously the model is applied to the california alfalfa market the calculated long run equilibrium acreage is quite close to average acreage over the base period the results also exhibit cyclical fluctuations in acreage with a six percent coefficient of variation thus cyclical behavior can arise from technical characteristics of the production process as well as from imperfectly formed expectations or random exogenous shocks

india and china contrasts in economic liberalization abstract it is argued that in both india and china despite some important differences 1 a similar cultural and political imperatives led to similar systems of dirigisme and economic outcomes with the chinese growth higher than the indian because of higher investment 2 b crises engendered by their dirigiste regimes impelled reform 3 c their attempts to replace the plan by the market have striking similarities but 4 d ultimately because of continuing atavistic attitudes to toward trade and commerce the reforms remain insecure

a synthesis of the macroeconomic approaches to exchange rate determination abstract the paper develops a general model with the goods money domestic and foreign bond and labor markets the special assumptions needed to generate the predictions of the different approaches from the model are found it turns out that the assumption of perfect capital mobility essentially generates the monetarist predictions and perfect monetary sterilization by the central bank at a fixed interest rate the predictions of the elasticity absorption approach the approaches turn out to be independent rather than conflicting parts of the general model each approach abstracting from what the other is analyzing this is technically done by dichotomizing the general model the monetarists making the money market equation and the keynesians the goods market and balance payments equations the independent ones while the keynesian monetarist and short term portfolio balance approaches differ in their policy regime assumptions the long run portfolio balance approach differs in its equilibrium condition by constraining the trade balance to equilibrium

modeling expectations of bounded prices an application to the market for corn the presence of farm programs should directly affect the expectations of producers this paper analyzes the formation of price expectations when price supports constitute an effective lower bound on the distribution of the expectations we first investigate what the expected price would be if the usual rational expectations formula is used this leads to a relationship that is not estimable we suggest two alternatives one based on a tobit approximation and the other based on a perfect prediction of when the support is going to be effective using a simplified model of the u s corn market the methodology is demonstrated and compared to an alternative method of using futures prices as the expectation of harvest price the analysis of supply response for the major u s field crops is made difficult due to government intervention in these markets this intervention has been characterized by the use of price supports acreage diversion storage incentives etc during the last thirty years many studies have analyzed producer behavior in the presence of governmental involvement such studies have typically been concerned with modeling the effect of supports and diversions in an ex post sense rather than with how producers used the knowledge of farm programs to form their expectations if producers are rational economic agents their expectations of harvest prices should be conditioned both by free market forces and the type and degree of governmental intervention in the market of course farm programs have varied in nature and extent during the past thirty years and it is doubtful that any structural model could capture their complexities in this paper we attempt to introduce rational expectations in a simplified model of the u s corn market in essence we focus on the formation of price expectations when price supports constitute an effective lower bound on the distribution of the expectations we proceed by developing a theoretical model that connects the rational expectations model with a model of bounded price variation it is shown that one representation that may characterize the corn market is a triangular structural system with endogenous switching a full information maximum likelihood estimator is proposed for the system next an empirical model is specified and estimated the model is evaluated in comparison to an augmented model that contains a futures price so that some inferences may be made concerning the rational expectations model s success in summarizing relevant market information expectations under bounded prices consider a market that may be represented by a simple supply and demand system q a pt a2w el supply function pt b qt b2xt e2t demand function 1 where p and q represent market price and quantity w and x represent supply and demand shifters and p represents the rational expectation of product price at the time production decisions are made note that this system has a familiar recursive structure when the expected price variable is specified in terms of one or more lagged prices when the restricted reduced form of the structural system is solved for in terms of the expected price and this expression is used to replace pj wallis 1980 then models similar to those of goodwin and sheifrin 1982 and shonkwiler and emerson 1982

completing china s move to the market beginning in late 1978 by luck as much as design china arrived at a strategy for market oriented economic reform that combined substantial reform with rapid growth in gdp and exports the sequencing of reform began with the easy to reform sectors agriculture and foreign trade and then took up the more difficult task of reforming the large state owned enterprises with respect to agriculture small scale industry and foreign investment china found ways of introducing meaningful property rights into the increasingly marketized system a partially unreformed financial system and inadequate autonomy of large state enterprises accounts however for the current stop go nature of chinese development

growth efficiency and convergence in china s state and collective industry in china as in the soviet union and eastern europe economic reform initiatives seek to increase productivity by introducing elements of market oriented policies and institutions into an economy formerly dominated by state planning efforts to evaluate the impact of reform of chinese industry have focused on the measurement of productivity change in state enterprises this study expands the prior framework of analysis in several directions our investigation of productivity trends is not limited to state enterprises but includes quantitative comparisons with china s fast growing collective industries which contributed 36 of overall industrial output in 1988 1 unlike previous studies our analysis works with gross rather than net output this permits us to investigate changes in the productivity of intermediate inputs which occupy a large portion of total costs in chinese industry as well as labor and capital to do this we develop a quasi frontier estimation procedure which seems appropriate for comparisons of total factor productivity based on chinese industrial data finally we offer a quantitative perspective on the extent to which reform efforts have moved industrial resource allocation toward patterns expected of a market system the analysis confirms our previous finding based on a restricted framework employing only labor fixed capital and net output that multifactor productivity in state industry has risen substantially during

an empirical comparison of agricultural supply response mechanisms 1982 an empirical comparison of agricultural supply response mechanisms applied economics vol 14 no 2 pp 183 194

a market equilibrium analysis of the impact of risk on the u s rice industry an economic model of supply demand for u s rice suggests that increases in risk result in decreased acreage and increased marketing margins in a market equilibrium context the empirical results also suggest rice production and rice prices are more responsive to changes in risk faced by marketing firms than changes in risk faced by producing firms

soft budget constraint and inflation cycles a positive model of the macro dynamics in china during transition abstract in this paper we develop a positive general equilibrium model consistent with china s institutional and political environment to explain the growth and inflation cycles during transition central to our explanation is the government s use of the monetary and financial system to support the state sector and the growing tension between a long running commitment to the sector and economic decentralization given this commitment we show how the cycles emerge as a product of the government s imperfect control over credit allocation under decentralization and the high costs of implementing administrative credit control

governing china s transition to the market institutional incentives politicians choices and unintended outcomes this essay reviews two books that seek to account for china s success in making economic reforms and sustaining rapid growth one perspective explains china s reformist approach in terms of politicians making choices under certain institutional rules the other sees an economic logic of market transition and emphasizes policymakers limited abilities in governing the economy the essay assesses the merits of these competing claims it calls for better specification of the causal linkages between institutional rules and politicians choices and concludes that both the dynamics and dilemmas of china s political economy are explained in terms of increasing market competition finally the essay evaluates the argument that decentralization leads to market segmentation and points to the chinese government s evolving role in dealing with the economy

effects of land fragmentation and returns to scale in the chinese farming sector using household survey data from rural china economies of scale as measured by returns to scale and the effects of land fragmentation on crop outputs are examined while these effects are found to be detrimental statistically significant and substantial existing economies of scale appear to be too small to suggest radical land policy changes in china

testing the rational expectations hypothesis in an agricultural market a recent survey on models of agricultural supply equations listed over 500 studies in which variants of nerlove s adaptive expectations model were employed one might naively assume that the scientific evidence overwhelmingly favored the adaptive expectations hypothesis but this inference would not be warranted in particular there have been very few studies which have even attempted to estimate a rational expectations version of the traditional agricultural supply models and none that have explicitly tested the rational expectations hypothesis 2 in this paper we estimate a model of agricultural supply and demand for the chicken broiler industry under the maintained assumption of rational expectations in the sense of muth 1961 and provide a series of tests of the model specification we find that in this case the hypothesis of muth rationality receives strong support in recent years there has been increasing interest in models in which economic actors are assumed to form expectations of variables rationally for the most part empirical applications of the rational expectations hypothesis have employed single equation econometric methods these methods have permitted consistent estimation of equations under the assumption of the rational expectations hypothesis but do not allow for any explicit testing of the maintained hypothesis of rationality this paper presents estimates of a simultaneous equation model of the chicken broiler industry using maximum likelihood methods and provides a joint test of the rational expectations hypothesis and the model specification our econometric procedure is related to the recent theoretical work of wallis 1980 and combines time series analysis with traditional econometric estimation techniques under the assumption of rational expectations the model can be solved for the expected price as a function of the expected values of the exogenous variables this function can then be substituted into the model leading to a specification which contains the original endogenous and exogenous variables plus the expected values of the exogenous variables in general following this substitution the model will contain overidentifying restrictions time series analysis is utilized to generate the necessary forecasts of the exogenous variables the complete system of equations is estimated by full information maximum likelihood and the constraints are tested by a log likelihood ratio test the overidentifying constraints arise in the model because the suppliers are assumed to act as if they know both the underlying structure of the model and the stochastic processes governing the exogenous variables the two requirements of rational expectations while the expected price enters only the supply equation of our model it is necessary in the econometric formulation to specify the demand equation the instrumental variable procedures of mccallum 1976 and nelson 1975b are single equation methods and do not permit a test of the rational expectations hypothesis by specifying the complete model the additional structure imposed on the problem allows us to estimate the coefficients and test the implied restrictions there has not been universal agreement that the rational expectations hypothesis is the best theoretical device to model rational behavior according to muth s original formulation economic actors forecast endogenous variables according to the true reduced form equations of the model decanio 1979 and friedman 1979 have argued that the economic actors actually received for publication august 24 1981 revision accepted for publication march 2 1982 university of new mexico and university of california davis respectively we wish to thank g king r l huntzinger r pope and l wegge for advice on this project a nelson and e shaw contributed useful research assistance i the paper by askari and cummings 1977 provides references for these studies 2 huntzinger s 1979 paper is one of the first attempts at estimatitng a rational expectations model of agricultural supply

success and failure of reform insights from the transition of agriculture this paper analyzes the linkages between the reform strategies in transition countries and economic performance the authors focus on agriculture because of the sharpness of the policy changes fundamental differences among countries and relative simplicity of agricultural relationships the authors document post reform performance in the transition countries of asia and europe the authors show how a pricing reform and subsidy reductions b land rights reform and policies that affect farm restructuring and c the presence institutions that facilitate exchange either markets or market substitutes affect output and productivity the paper ends with general lessons on reforms and transition

fiscal policy and the real exchange rate abstract this paper reconsiders some conventional notions about fiscal policy under flexible exchange rates using an extended version of the dornbusch overshooting model the extension allows for a long run link between output and the real exchange rate unanticipated permanent fiscal policy affects both current and long run output while the long run effect is always in the expected direction it is possible that the current effect is perverse both fiscal and monetary policy must cause either nominal exchange rate overshooting or perverse domestic interest rate effects the results suggest that real shocks are a potential source of high exchange rate variability

a welfare measurement of china s rural forestry reform during the 1980s abstract rural institutional innovation in china encompassed changes in land tenure arrangements and commodity pricing practices and their effects hinged on how they were carried out properly implemented the incentive structure could improve forest production would increase and thus producers and consumers would benefit otherwise if the reform programs were inappropriately implemented as reflected in market control and price distortions as well as policy uncertainty then the incentive structure might improve only slightly chances for production increase could be diminished making it hard for producers and consumers to benefit in addition to quantifying these impacts using contrasting cases this article also suggests some policy implications in a broader context

supply dynamics the case of u s broilers and turkeys supply dynamics have received considerable attention in agricultural economics nerlove 1979 askari and cummings many econometric models incorporate adjustment mechanisms that allow desired and actual states to be different usually the adjustment process is specified as a distributed lag model griliches a common expectation formula is the nerlove adaptive model which assumes that at each period the expected price is changed by an amount proportional to the most recently observed forecast error implying a geometrically declining distributed lag nerlove 1958 this model has become popular in econometric modeling partly because it ties in well with statistical theory in optimal prediction another hypothesis leading to the same reduced form except for the error term structure is the partial adjustment model griliches fromm it states that only some fixed fraction of the desired adjustment is accomplished within any particular time period it assumes the existence of some adjustment costs to explain the observed response inertia more complex expectation formulations or partial adjustment mechanisms lead to more complicated lag structures unfortunately economic theory provides little guidance to model builders on their adjustment processes the particular forms are normally selected arbitrarily by each investigator some flexible lag distributions have been applied e g almon shiller however there are statistical difficulties in distinguishing among various plausible lag models from the data alone griliches writes

firm dynamics and industrialization in the chinese economy in transition implications for small business policy abstract this article first presents a review of the development of different types of domestic enterprises state owned enterprise soes collectiveowned enterprises coes and other enterprises oes which include mainly private enterprises compared with other transition economies coes are actually an important source of china s rapid economic growth they are vaguely defined cooperative without a well defined ownership structure there is no equivalent organizational structure similar to coes in western economies the purpose of this article is to study the empirical relationship between the size of domestic enterprises including state owned enterprises collective owned enterprises and other enterprises and their firm dynamics growth by investigating whether they grow according to gibrat s law the majority of coes and oes were formed after the economic reform the rapid growth of these non state enterprises especially coes is actually the driving force behind the rapid development of the industrial sector our empirical results suggest that gibrat s law does not hold for all types of enterprises the rejection is especially strong for coes moreover small enterprises are growing faster than their larger counterparts in terms of employment and output this conclusion leads to at least three implications 1 there has been little research into the dynamics of soes and coes in an economy in transition our results not only help stimulate further research in this area but also provide information for designing policies to speed up the economic reforms 2 until now the chinese government has not had a comprehensive small business policy given our empirical results there is an implication for government policy prescription to achieve china s development targets of rapid industrialization and lower unemployment or underemployment the chinese economy can reap more dynamic benefits by breaking up a giant and inefficient enterprise especially inefficient soe into a number of smaller enterprises in addition more small enterprises also improve competition in the marketplace and force other inefficient soes to improve their performance further research should be undertaken to examine the viability of this policy 3 because coes are the majority of small manufacturing enterprises the rapid growth of coes after their formation that are simply the opposite of the type of private organizations the center of the central and east european reforms is rather surprising to academics although some hypotheses like cooperative culture and moral framework for rights are put forward to explain their superior performance the validity of such hypotheses has not been empirically tested yet this is a fruitful area for further research

intraseasonal demand for fall potatoes under rational expectations an iterative numerical strategy combining maximum likelihood methods and stochastic dynamic programming is used to estimate a dynamic nonlinear rational expectations model of the u s fall potato market the model captures the essential processes governing the intraseasonal dynamics of potato consumption and storage including the impact of price expectations on stockholding decisions the model is used to analyze the temporal pattern of demand for fall potatoes