beyond carbon pricing the role of banking and monetary policy in financing the transition to a low carbon economy it is widely acknowledged that introducing a price on carbon represents a crucial precondition for filling the current gap in low carbon investment however as this paper argues carbon pricing in itself may not be sufficient this is due to the existence of market failures in the process of creation and allocation of credit that may lead commercial banks the most important source of external finance for firms not to respond as expected to price signals under certain economic conditions banks would shy away from lending to low carbon activities even in the presence of a carbon price this possibility calls for the implementation of additional policies not based on prices in particular the paper discusses the potential role of monetary policies and macroprudential financial regulation modifying the incentives and constraints that banks face when deciding their lending strategy through for instance a differentiation of reserve requirements according to the destination of lending may fruitfully expand credit creation directed towards low carbon sectors this seems to be especially feasible in emerging economies where the central banking framework usually allows for a stronger public control on credit allocation and a wider range of monetary policy instruments than the sole interest rate

taxes housing and capital accumulation in a two sector growing economy abstract it is sometimes argued that the favorable tax treatment afforded to housing may lead to an oversupply of housing at the expense of capital this issue is examined in the context of a growing two sector economy in the basic model where the rate of time preference is constant and labor is instantaneously sectorally mobile the long run response of the capital stock to a tax on housing depends upon the relative capital intensities of the two sectors while the long run relative asset price of housing remains unchanged the robustness of these propositions to changes in the model are considered taxes on capital are also analyzed

international effects of tax reforms in an open economy with international capital flows there is an equivalence relation between income tax consumption tax international borrowing tax and an external interest earning tax this paper analyzes tax reform involving shifts between income and consumption taxes in this setting it is shown that the real effects of such revenue neutral tax reform depend critically on the country s current account position and the nature of the reform in particular whether the world interest rate rises or falls as a consequence of a budget deficit depends on the tax system in force the analysis provides a clear rationale for the international coordination of tax policies copyright 1989 by royal economic society

an integrated approach to climate change income distribution employment and economic growth a demand driven growth model involving capital accumulation and the dynamics of greenhouse gas ghg concentration is set up to examine macroeconomic issues raised by global warming e g effects on output and employment of rising levels of ghg offsets by mitigation relationships among energy use and labor productivity income distribution and growth the economic significance of the jevons and other paradoxes sustainable consumption and possible reductions in employment and sources of instability and cyclicality implicit in the two dimensional dynamical system the emphasis is on the combination of biophysical limits and post keynesian growth theory and the qualitative patterns of system adjustment and the dynamics that emerge

a note on dynamic tax incidence under certain reasonable conditions for a growth model the path of adjustment between steady states generated by a change in an exogenous policy variable is solved for explicitly the overall welfare effect is then shown to be a weighted average of the short and long run effects for a large class of social welfare functions these results are applied to a simple neoclassical growth model for the purpose of investigating the dynamic incidence of a labor income tax contrary to the claims of previous investigators the long run effect is shown to be more important for a wide range of parameter values

attitudes towards climate policies in a macrodynamic model of the economy abstract in a recent article published in this journal guarini and porcile 2016 expanded the balance of payments constraint bopc growth model suggesting a way to make it possible to address some of the challenges posed by greenhouse gas emissions building on their set up we formalise into the model a mechanism that explains how people with different environmental attitudes or sentiments influence each other and contribute to the design of environmental policies we detail the concept of transition probabilities for the agent s switching from pro to anti environmental positions and vice versa and discuss the macroeconomic results that follow numerical simulations allow us to investigate in more detail the implications of the validity of porter s hypothesis as well as to discuss the feasibility of decoupling conditions a policy implication of our analysis is that we should encourage the dissemination of pro environmental attitudes among the public because this could lead to a more desirable equilibrium as important as enhancing public knowledge of climate change is to keep alive the debate at the collective level so as to influence the probability of switching sides

ecological macroeconomic models assessing current developments our society faces a dilemma while continued economic growth is ecologically unsustainable low or negative rates of economic growth are accompanied by adverse social impacts hence there is a need for macroeconomic tools that can help identify socially sustainable post growth pathways the emerging field of ecological macroeconomics aims to address this need and features a number of new macroeconomic modelling approaches this article provides 1 a review of modelling developments in ecological macroeconomics based on the literature and interviews with researchers and 2 an analysis of how the different models incorporate policy themes from the post growth literature twenty two ecological macroeconomic models were analysed and compared to eight policy themes it was found that environmental interactions and the monetary system were treated most comprehensively themes of income inequality work patterns indicators of well being and disaggregated production were addressed with less detail while alternative business models and cross scale interactions were hardly addressed overall the combination of input output analysis with stock flow consistent modelling was identified as a promising avenue for developing macroeconomic models for a post growth economy however due to the wide interpretation of what the economy entails future research will benefit from employing a range of approaches

the impacts of petroleum price fluctuations on income distribution across ethnic groups in malaysia crude oil price hikes have compelled governments of developing countries to let domestic prices of energy increase fiscal priorities made it impossible to fully compensate the hikes by raising energy subsidies this paper examines the potential impacts of a limited deregulation of the petroleum price on the income distribution in malaysia paying specific attention to differences in impacts on major ethnic groups we introduce an extended social accounting matrix sam model which not only incorporates substitution possibilities among production inputs and consumption goods but also allows for the exogenous determination of the price of intermediate inputs the results of simulations indicate that distributional impacts of rising petroleum prices tend to be regressive affecting poor people more severely than richer people all ethnic groups experience income loss with the real incomes of malay households which are relatively poor on average more than the chinese and indian households which are the generally richer

unfunded liabilities and uncertain fiscal financing we develop a rational expectations framework to study the consequences of alternative means to resolve the unfunded liabilities problem the projected exponential growth in federal social security medicare and medicaid spending with no known plan for financing the transfers resolution requires specifying a probability distribution for how and when monetary and fiscal policies will change as the economy evolves through the 21st century beliefs based on that distribution determine the existence of and the nature of equilibrium we consider policies that in expectation combine reaching a fiscal limit some distorting taxation modest inflation and some reneging on the government s promised transfers in the equilibrium inflation targeting monetary policy and debt targeting tax policy cannot anchor expectations on those target variables expectational effects are always present but need not have large impacts on inflation and interest rates in the short and medium runs in the economy s stationary distribution the capital stock may grow or shrink and substantial probability falls on little or no reneging

consumer product export opportunities to liberalizing ldcs a life cycle approach this paper reviews popular and academic literature in order to describe several relationships which appear to exist between liberalization in ldcs and imports of consumer goods based on this review the parameters of a life cycle model are developed for consumer product exports to liberalizing ldcs such exports are hypothesized to 1 be minimal prior to liberalization and 2 rise rapidly in the early stages of liberalization and 3 decline sometimes precipitously several years later these hypotheses are tested using consumer import data from three unique ldcs chile egypt and china finally the implications of the model for ldc governments exporters and foreign investors are explored

risk the financial market and macroeconomic equilibrium growing recognition of the importance of stock market phenomena to the real economy underscores the need for models linking exogenous uncertainty asset market performance and the rest of the economy in an optimizing framework without certainty equivalence this paper constructs a three agent model with continuous time stochastic variables uncertain private production and government expenditure and forward looking rational agents the growth rate of output physical capital accumulation financial asset returns and uncertain inflation are determined as functions of the exogenous uncertainty in the economy analysis of the model finds that increased risk associated with government policy often reverses in an explainable way the conventional comparative static predictions of nonstochastic macro models

the social cost of carbon emissions seven propositions determining the social cost of carbon emissions scc is a crucial step in the economic analysis of climate change policy as the us government s recent decision to use a range of estimates of the scc centered at 77 tc or equivalently 21 tco2 in cost benefit analyses of proposed emission control legislation underlines this note reviews the welfare economics theory fundamental to the estimation of the scc in both static and intertemporal contexts examining the effects of assumptions about the typical agent s pure rate of time preference and elasticity of marginal felicity of consumption production and mitigation technology and the magnitude of climate change damage on estimates of the scc we high light three key conclusions i an estimate of the scc is conditional on a specific policy scenario the details of which must be made explicit for the estimate to be meaningful ii the social discount rate relevant to intertemporal allocation decisions also depends on the policy scenario and iii the scc is uniquely defined only for policy scenarios that lead to an efficient growth path because marginal costs and benefits of emission mitigation diverge on inefficient growth paths we illustrate these analytical conclusions with simulations of a growth model calibrated to the world economy authors abstract

domestic and foreign disturbances in an optimizing model of exchange rate determination abstract this paper analyzes the effects of various disturbances of domestic and foreign origin in a small open economy under imperfect capital mobility in which the behavioral relationships are divided from optimization by the private sector in this model the domestic economy jumps instantaneously to its new equilibrium following a change in either the domestic monetary growth rate or domestic fiscal policy in response to a disturbance in either the foreign interest rate or inflation rate the economy undergoes an initial partial jump towards its new equilibrium which it thereafter approaches gradually the implications of these results for exchange rate adjustments and the insulation properties of flexible exchange rates are discussed

economic growth inequality and well being in advanced industrial societies rising levels of inequality have contributed strongly to the observed gap that has emerged between per capita income and the index of sustainable economic welfare isew which in its current versions is known as the genuine progress indicator gpi yet the isew gpi approach to measuring the social costs of inequality has been criticized as ad hoc the present paper reviews the literature on this topic and efforts to resolve it based on the construction of indicators grounded in a a classical utilitarian ethical framework and b empirical evidence on the relationship between income and well being in the united states after tax income per capita grew at an annual rate of 1 7 between 1979 and 2011 a growth rate of 1 2 per year arises when income is adjusted to account for the social costs of inequality the most common adjustment used in isew gpi studies yields a similar growth rate despite much smaller subtractions from baseline income

an integrated biophysical and economic modeling framework for long term sustainability analysis the harmoney model abstract this paper derives a long term dynamic growth model that endogenously links biophysical and economic variables in a stock flow consistent manner the two industrial sector harmoney human and resources with money model enables exploration of interdependencies among resource extraction rate and depletion the accumulation of population capital and debt and the distribution of money flows within the economy using a post keynesian economic framework we find that wage share declines after the model reaches a constant per capita resource extraction rate with the level of investment and markup on costs determining the rate of decline this pattern is consistent with data for the united states thus the model framework enables realistic investigation of trade offs between economic distribution size and resources consumption between sectors as well as between labor and capital these trade offs are core to the debates regarding environmental and socioeconomic sustainability this model serves as a platform upon which to add features to explore long term sustainability questions such as a transition to low carbon energy

an intertemporal general equilibrium analysis of financial crowding out a policy model and an application to australia abstract this paper constructs a two period perfect foresight general equilibrium model that analyzes crowding out private investment is debt financed while government deficits are financed by money and debt the existence of equilibrium is demonstrated and the model is applied to australia for 1981 1982 the last years for which australia had a fixed exchange rate a benchmark solution is derived and two counterfactual simulations are carried out small increases in real government spending are found not to lead to crowding out while an increase in the debt financed portion of the government s budget deficit does lead to crowding out

an ecological macroeconomics model the energy transition in the eu abstract the energy roadmap 2050 er2050 is committed to achieve the european union s emissions mitigation goals by reducing energy use and a transition to renewables the macroeconomic impacts of the ref16 and euco scenarios of this strategy have been reported to entail an absolute decoupling between gdp growth and energy use the aim of this paper is assessing the er2050 targets with a novel modelling methodology based on post keynesian economics i e demand led economic growth and ecological economics i e taking into account absolute biophysical energy availability constrains to economic growth thus this article presents the economy module of the integrated assessment model medeas europe combining system dynamics and input output analysis and evaluates the er2050 targets under different scenarios regarding primary income distribution foreign trade labour productivity industrial policy and working time reduction our results show that gdp growth and employment creation may be halted due to energy scarcity if the er2050 targets are met even considering great energy efficiency gains in addition the renewables share would increase enough to reduce the energy imports dependency but not sufficiently to meet the emissions targets only a post growth scenario would be able to meet the climate goals and maintain the level of employment

heterodox theories of economic growth and income distribution a partial survey heterodox theories of economic growth and income distribution are surveyed focusing on major theories and recent contributions first a general framework for examining growth and distribution is discussed in terms of which classical marxian and post keynesian kaleckian and other theories are presented since this framework examines how variables are determined in equilibrium second dynamics behind equilibria are examined focusing on goods market and labor market changes third the framework is extended in a variety of ways to examine additional models addressing productivity growth and technical change money and inflation finance and debt additional distributional considerations multisector issues open economy questions and the environment it is concluded that the literature on heterodox theories of growth and distribution is vibrant large and growing and addresses many issues that are ignored or neglected in orthodox theories including power unemployment and aggregate demand

growth effect of taxes in an endogenous growth model to what extent do taxes affect economic growth abstract this paper presents an endogenous growth model comprising of financial human and physical capital and incorporating major features of a general tax system technology and preference parameter values in the model are chosen to fit the actual growth experiences of the united states and a rapidly growing east asian nic using the calibrated model i assess the role of differences in taxes and other variables in explaining the difference in growth rates the main findings are i the difference in tax systems across countries explains a significant proportion around 30 of the difference in growth rates ii the difference in preferences explains at most 4 and iii differences in labor income tax debt equity ratio and inflation can be important in explaining the growth difference further i evaluate the contribution of the monetary factor to the growth rate gap and the growth effect of us tax reforms e g revenue neutral changes in relative tax structure

redistributive taxation in a simple perfect foresight model abstract we investigate the redistributive potential of capital taxation in an intertemporal maximizing model of capital formation first even unanticipated redistributive capital taxation is severely limited in its effectiveness since it depresses wages second under any convergent redistributive tax policy which maximizes a paretian social objective the capital income tax will converge to zero independent of the factor supply elasticities these results are independent of workers holdings of capital

towards post keynesian ecological macroeconomics the paper starts with a brief criticism of macroeconomic analyses of different schools of thought for their focus on economic growth and maximisation of output this applies to the traditional keynesian approach which has focused on the achievement of sufficient aggregate demand to underpin full employment and full capacity utilisation down playing aggregate supply constraints this also applies to the neoclassical approach including the current new consensus macroeconomics approach which asserts the dominant role of aggregate supply in the long run and where growth is set by the so called natural rate of growth with no concerns over environmental and ecological issues the paper then proposes a different approach to macroeconomic analysis it explicitly acknowledges that economic growth is a double edged sword growth can help to alleviate persistent levels of high unemployment but it can also lead to potentially catastrophic environmental problems building on the monetary circuit theory and the demand led growth theory the paper offers an analysis of the interconnections and interdependence of the economic biophysical and social worlds and by doing it hopes to provide the building blocks for the establishment of post keynesian ecological macroeconomics

stochastic control for economic models past present and the paths ahead abstract on the 30th anniversary of a meeting between engineers and economists at princeton university to discuss the potential application of stochastic control methods to economics this paper provides a review of past present and paths ahead the events surrounding some of the key developments of the past are described along with a discussion of the present state of the research and of paths for future research the paper is structured around the primary methods for solving quadratic linear economic stochastic control models namely open loop classical control handcrafted feedback rules optimal feedback min max control optimal feedback rules with parameter uncertainty and dual control the paper also includes a discussion of software developments in economic stochastic control modeling

the impacts of international tourism demand on economic growth of small economies dependent on tourism abstract this paper studies the impacts on economic growth of a small tourism driven economy caused by an increase in the growth rate of international tourism demand we present a formal model and empirical evidence the ingredients of the dynamic model are a large population of intertemporally optimizing agents and an ak technology representing tourism production the model shows that an increase in the growth of tourism demand leads to transitional dynamics with gradually increasing economic growth and increasing terms of trade in our empirical application an econometric methodology is applied to annual data of antigua and barbuda from 1970 to 2008 we perform a cointegration analysis to look for the existence of a long run relationship among variables of economic growth international tourism earnings and the real exchange rate the exercise confirms the theoretical findings

the economic effects of production taxes in a stochastic growth model this paper analyzes the effects of stochastic taxes on production in simple stochastic growth model in so doing the paper explicitly examines the importance of uncertainty on the decisions of individual agents this importance is emphasized by comparing economic outcome to various realizations of tax rates under uncertainty and perfect foresight copyright 1990 by american economic association

a dynamic theory of factor taxation many important questions in macroeconomics concern the impact of taxation and spending policies on private resource allocation one approach typified by robert hall 1971 and william brock and stephen turnovsky 1981 is to use dynamic general equilibrium models to address basic issues in fiscal and tax policy the objective is to explicitly examine macroeconomic issues without embracing the market imperfections fixed prices missing markets money illusion etc found in conventional macroeconomic analysis there is currently great interest in dynamic fiscal policy problems this decade has already seen two major adjustments in tax policy and many attempts to substantially alter spending patterns the result of this tumult has been unprecedented peacetime deficits and much uncertainty about what measures will ultimately be used to bring the budget into balance in this paper i discuss the impact of alternative fiscal policies in a dynamic general equilibrium model i examine the shortrun effects of fiscal policy changes the efficiency cost of alternative dynamic tax policies the effects of uncertain policy formation and the redistributive effects of factor taxation

multiple capital inputs q and investment spending despite their explicit treatment of dynamics and solid theoretical basis investment models based on the brainard tobin q have recorded a generally disappointing empirical performance when the q model is expanded to recognize the possibility that the value of the firm depends on two or more capital inputs with differing adjustment cost technologies the econometric equation following from optimizing behavior includes q as well as a set of additional explanatory variables the importance of these omitted variables is assessed and the capital homogeneity assumption for equipment and structures implicit in conventional q models is rejected the multi capital q model is then extended in two ways i adding inventory research and development and labor as quasi fixed factors and ii exploring the sensitivity of the instrumental variables estimates to normalization we conclude that the multi capital q model is a useful extension that overcomes an important omitted variables problem in the conventional q framework

the rip tide of privatization lessons from chile abstract chile is one of the rare exceptions where the voluble enthusiasm for privatization has been put into effect of the 500 companies that were under state ownership in the early 1970s only 19 remained under public control at the end of the decade moreover a land reform which had affected 43 of the country s cultivable area was rolled back by almost 40 privatization indisputably increased the economic power of a number of conglomerates and fostered the concentration of assets however the complexity of the liberalization package that accompanied privatization makes it difficult to establish strict causality for the economic collapse that followed in the early 1980s the chilean experience with privatization reveals some interesting lessons that other countries may wish to consider

tax analysis in a real business cycle model on measuring harberger triangles and okun gaps abstract a tax distorted real business cycle model is parameterized calibrated and solved numerically in an attempt to measure the size of harberger triangles relative to okun gaps in particular the model constructed is used to study quantitatively the impact of various distortional government tax and subsidy schemes it is shown that the government can use tax policy to stabilize cyclical fluctuations and this is done for the economy being studied the benefits of implementing such a stabilization policy are calculated and compared with the size of the welfare gains realized from reducing various tax distortions

macroeconomic modelling under energy constraints global low carbon transition scenarios abstract integrated assessment models provide a framework to study sustainability transitions and their economic impacts models seldom consider energy constraints taking supply availability for granted and thus suggesting a mere change in the energy mix from non renewables to renewables in order to address these limitations a macro economic module within a broader system dynamics model medeas has been developed the model has been run for the whole world from 1995 to 2050 under three different scenarios business as usual bau considering no further transition policies and keeping current trends green growth gg undertaking the low carbon transition according to the paris agreement set of policies and with high gdp growth standards and post growth pg testing the sustainability transition under a gdp non growth degrowth approach the results reveal the conflict between economic growth climate policy and the sustainability of resources whereas a bau approach would not even be an option to achieve climate goals a gg view would not only face the downsizing of economic output but neither would it be able to achieve the 2 c objective the success of the pg approach in meeting emissions objectives suggests a redirection from economic growth policies to an industrial policy that incorporates efficiency and redistribution

the equity premium in brock s asset pricing model abstract in this paper we combine dynamic programming methods with projection methods for solving stochastic growth models as an application of these methods we solve brock s asset pricing model with a variety of parameterizations we focused on finding parameterizations that result in an equity premium that is high relative to the variation in consumption we show both analytically and numerically that the equity premium can be higher in a production based asset pricing model than it is in the consumption based asset pricing model even when the real output level is the same in both models

subsidies in carbon finance for promoting renewable energy development abstract faced with decreasing exhaustible nonrenewable resources and climate change resulting from the use of fossil energy it is urgent to accelerate the development of renewable energy but the development of renewable energy requires abundant financial support both from banks and governments this article considers bank loans to develop renewable energy and highlights the effects of government subsidies by using a microeconomic model and taking all stakeholders including the government banks and shareholders of the firm into consideration this study finds that government subsidies raise outputs and debt levels of renewable energy firms and improve shareholder value as well more importantly financial debts stimulate firms outputs but decrease the net profit per unit of debt due to the limited liability effects finally subsidy policy plays a critical role in renewable energy development because environmental efficiencies of subsidies decrease with the subsidy degree other valuable conclusions would be achieved if principal agent problem and other corporate governance factors are employed

distortions and intertemporal welfare in a small open economy introducing intertemporal considerations into the open economy theory of distortions and welfare does not alter the fundamental conclusions drawn in static models dynamic welfare is evaluated for a small open economy which is in transition from one steady state to another because of a change in the distortion we demonstrate that if the change moves the new steadystate capital stock away from the socially optimal level trade intervention is superior to free trade this result holds even though the new steady state under trade intervention is pareto inferior to that under free trade

can degrowth overcome the leakage problem of unilateral climate policy abstract unilateral climate policy suffers from carbon leakage i e the partial offset of the initial emission reduction by increases in other countries different than most typically discussed climate policies degrowth not only aims at reducing the fossil fuel use in an economy but rather besides other social and political goals at a reduction of all factor inputs which may lead to different leakage implications we conduct the first investigation of degrowth in a multi country setting in order to i compare the leakage effects of national pure emission reduction policies to degrowth scenarios ii identify underlying channels by decomposing the implied emission changes into scale composition and technique effects and iii investigate which country characteristics determine degrowth s relative effectiveness to overcome the leakage problem using a structural gravity model we find that degrowth indeed significantly reduces leakage by keeping the sectoral composition of the country more stable and reducing uncommitted countries incentives to shift towards more energy intensive production techniques the higher effectiveness of degrowth in reducing carbon emissions is most pronounced for small and trade open economies with comparatively clean production technologies

a stock flow fund ecological macroeconomic model this paper develops a stock flow fund ecological macroeconomic model that combines the stock flow consistent approach of godley and lavoie with the flow fund model of georgescu roegen the model has the following key features first monetary and physical stocks and flows are explicitly formalised taking into account the accounting principles and the laws of thermodynamics second georgescu roegen s distinction between stock flow and fund service resources is adopted third output is demand determined but supply constraints might arise either due to environmental damages or due to the exhaustion of natural resources fourth climate change influences directly the components of aggregate demand fifth finance affects macroeconomic activity and the materialisation of investment plans that determine ecological efficiency the model is calibrated using global data simulations are conducted to investigate the trajectories of key environmental macroeconomic and financial variables under i different assumptions about the sensitivity of economic activity to the leverage ratio of firms and ii different types of green finance policies

the incidence of taxes a dynamic macroeconomic analysis abstract this paper analyzes the incidence of various tax changes using the intertemporal optimizing framework developed by brock and turnovsky the model contains a reasonably complete specification of the corporate sector in which firms have the choice of financial structure it also allows for a range of government financial policies although only one is considered in detail both the short run and the long run effects of changes in the personal income capital gains and corporate profit tax rates are analyzed it is shown that the effects of tax changes a vary between the short and long run b the effects of tax changes depend critically upon the financial structure adopted by forms and c may also depend upon government financial policy

econometric estimation of foresight tax policy and investment in the u s we develop a method for measuring the foresight agents have we first dichotomize an agent s information at current date t into knowledge up to date t 1 f and expectations after t 1 f we then form a residual based test statistic that allows us to compare prediction errors for econometric models based on different values of f we illustrate the method examining investment around tax reforms to measure the foresight firms have about tax policy in this illustration current investment appears to reflect currently available information but little foresight other than foresight of enacted policy changes

complementary system perspectives in ecological macroeconomics the example of transition investments during the crisis globally societies are facing a number of interrelated environmental economic and social crises this paper is intended to contribute to the development of an ecological macroeconomics that addresses these multiple crises in combination insights from different research communities will be included in this effort taking an ecological economic understanding of sustainability as the point of departure and inspired by systems thinking it is discussed which economic sub systems should be in focus for sustainability transitions and whether relevant guides for sustainability can be formulated for these systems in particular the focus is on systems that are decisive for resource consumption and pollution although their influence on these is indirect a simple typology of sub systems is suggested and applied in relation to an example that highlights the importance of the interplay between macroeconomic provision and distribution systems the example concerns investments in sustainability transitions of provision systems and demonstrates the complexities of implementing such transformations during the economic crisis it also addresses the need for ecological macroeconomics to develop a third position beyond austerity policies and keynesian approaches

the income inequality and carbon emissions trade off revisited abstract this paper investigates the marginal effect of income inequality on carbon emissions per capita we use a panel consisting of 68 countries over a 50 year period from 1961 to 2010 we report estimates that support the hypothesis that there is a trade off between carbon emissions per capita and income inequality this trade off is not homogeneous across countries and depends upon the level of development measured by income per capita using panel smooth transition regression we find that this relationship is negative for countries with low to moderate income per capita but becomes slightly positive after passing a threshold located around fifteen thousand 2011 us dollars moreover the inequality elasticity of emissions per capita is comparable in magnitude to its income elasticity therefore both inequality and income levels are crucial to define policies to reduce carbon emissions this implies a challenge to policymakers who pursue to reduce both income inequality and carbon emissions

personal income inequality and aggregate demand this paper presents a theoretical and empirical investigation of how changes in the size distribution of income can aect aggregate demand and the demand regime of an economy after presenting empirical evidence for the us economy that the propensity to save increases signicantly from the bottom to the top quintile of wage earners we demonstrate that more equal distributions always lead to higher output in the traditional neo kaleckian macroeconomic model we also present conditions under which a reduction of income inequality among workers turns demand more wage led this view is supported by the results of an econometric study for the united states 1967 2010 which show that the rise after 1980 in income inequality has made the us economy more prot led

cluster analysis of the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth abstract as global warming continues to worsen the balance between carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth has received increasing attention and carbon reduction comes to be an urgent task in many countries in literature various regression models have been developed to investigate the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth such as the inverted u shaped ekc model inverted n shaped model etc which play critical roles in analyzing the relationships existing studies suggest that some countries follow similar models to describe the relationships while others employ different ones regarding the interplay between carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth there lacks a cluster analysis to systematically uncover the similarity of countries that employ models more similar to each other than to the countries in other clusters in this paper a novel clustering approach is proposed to identify clusters of 67 countries from the spatial temporal and descriptive dimensions unlike the traditional clustering technique in which clusters are determined by geometric distances the clusters in this research are obtained based on the differences between the fitting models of the countries in each cluster the first step of the approach is to find clusters of countries sharing similar models in a given year based on the symbolic regression method and the second step is to determine the countries that frequently cooccur in the same cluster by the apriori algorithm the results present two high order clusters with different dynamic features during the period between 1971 and 2010 one high order cluster mainly consists of countries in higher level of income while the other contains lower income level countries and the carbon intensities of the two high order clusters have distinct differences the findings suggest that the countries within the same cluster could learn more lessons from each other while countries belonging to different clusters should not be examined together indiscriminately several policy implications are provided which may inform decision making for policymakers when choosing proper learning objects and help researchers with designing optimal models for specific countries

technological change and the superneutrality of money note the study of the effect of the supply of money on real economic variables has had a long history in economic research sidrauski 8 was the first to demonstrate that in the context of an intertemporal maximizing model with real money balances in the utility function the rate of monetary expansion did not influence the steady state capital stock or the real rate of interest this result termed the superneutrality of money contrasted sharply with previous models which did not use such an optimizing framework 1 subsequent studies have shown that the superneutrality result can be altered if some of the assumptions of the sisrauski model are modified if money is a productive input 3 5 or if the labor supply is endogenous 1 then the real rate of interest or the capital labor ratio is not invariant to the monetary growth 2 however no one has yet examined the effect of differing money growth when technological change is present this omission seems especially serious since superneutrality properties apply to the comparative steady state behavior of the economy 3 4 this note attempts to fill this gap by demonstrating that even the simple forms of technological change will in general nullify the superneutrality result and that the real rate of interest and the capital labor intensity will depend on the parameters of the utility function in particular it is shown that only if the utility function is of the class exhibiting constant relative risk aversion in all arguments will the superneutrality of money be valid

ecological macroeconomics an application to climate change ecological economics has not paid sufficient attention to the macroeconomic level both in terms of theory and modeling yet key topics debated in the field of ecological economics such as sustainable consumption reduction in working time the degrowth debate the energy exergy link and the rebound effect require a holistic and macro perspective while this deficiency has been identified before and keynesian economics has been generally suggested as a potent vehicle to establish economic system s thinking very little concrete theorizing and practical suggestions have been put forward we give further credence to this suggestion and demonstrate the value of tackling key concerns of ecological economics within a keynesian growth framework contextualized by an application to climate change we suggest that policy relevant recommendations need to be based on a consistent view of the macroeconomy we end with laying out key building blocks for a keynesian model framework for an ecological macroeconomics authors abstract

the effects of taxes and dividend policy on capital accumulation and macroeconomic behavior abstract this paper analyzes the macrodynamic effects of changes in various tax rates in an intertemporal optimizing framework two aspects emphasized include the role of dividend policy and the behavior of the stock market both permanent and temporary tax changes are considered with the transitional adjustment paths being characterized in detail the contrast between the short run and long run effects is highlighted in particular an increase in any of the tax rates will cause short run employment to fall and with the capital stock fixed instantaneously the capital labor ratio immediately rises over time as the capital stock declines the capital labor ratio falls

the welfare cost of capital income taxation in a growing economy the welfare cost of capital income taxation is analyzed in a general equilibrium framework where the private sector is represented by a competitive household endowed with perfect foresight and an infinite life the value of the welfare cost depends essentially on the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor in the production function numerical estimates are presented for different values of the parameters of the model the welfare gain obtained by the abolition of the capital income tax is smaller when the private sector is not endowed with perfect foresight it is reduced by about 40 percent when expectations are myopic the allocation efficiency cost of the corporate tax dwarfs the intertemporal welfare cost

the welfare cost of factor taxation in a perfect foresight model this paper examines the marginal efficiency cost of various factor taxes in a dynamic general equilibrium model the au thor solves for the excess burden of anticipated and unanticipated t emporary and permanent tax policies using a range of estimates for taste and technology parameters he finds excess burdens larger than those indicated by previous studies that use static models these exc ess burdens are sensitive to parameter values and timing however th e rankings of alternative tax policies turn out to be insensitive to structural parameter values copyright 1987 by university of chicago press

economic liberalism in chile 1973 82 a model for growth and development or a recipe for stagnation and impoverishment public policy in chile since the coup d etat of 1973 has been formulated in a highly authori tarian institutional setting the socio political constraints that would normally militate against a radical redefinition of the social economic and political basis of society have been all but absent in the economic sphere policy makers armed with a wide mandate from the army and possessing a strong academic grounding in monetarism were able and deter mined to reverse dramatically the previous trend towards growing state intervention and planning a trend that had begun in the 1930s but which had reached its apex under the socialist government of salvador allende 1970 73 in reorganising the economic basis of society policy makers were guided to quite an extraordinary degree by the principles of economic liberalism the doctrine maintains that in an exchange economy based on the division of labour individuals left free to pursue their own self interest will necessarily cause the welfare of the group be enhanced the free market is argued to be sovereign and through the price system to constitute the best mechanism for allocating society s resources both in production and consumption from this there stems an insistence on limiting the powers of government during 1973 there developed in chile a serious crisis of economic stability when the army came to power in september of that year consumer prices were inflating at 2096 monthly over 90096 on an annual basis the imbalance between public sector revenues and expenditures had grown out of control the deficit of central government alone reaching almost 25 of gdp the deficit on the current account of the balance of payments stood at 2 8 of gdp while foreign reserves were actually us 231 m in the red gdp invest ment and consumption were all contracting table 1 shows the principal macroeconomic aggregates from september 1973 to mid 1976 a period that can be viewed as constituting the first phase in chile s experiment with liberalism the top economic priority of the new regime was the reduction of inflation and the improvement of the country s external payments position to this end the government in conjunction with the imf adopted a highly ortho dox approach to stabilisation the exchange rate was greatly devalued and restrictive monetary and fiscal measures introduced prices were decontrolled and denationalisation

does slow growth lead to rising inequality some theoretical reflections and numerical simulations this paper explores the hypothesis most notably made by french economist thomas piketty that slow growth rates lead to rising inequality if true this hypothesis would pose serious challenges to achieving prosperity without growth or meeting the ambitions of those who call for an intentional slowing down of growth on ecological grounds it would also create problems of social justice in the context of a secular stagnation the paper describes a closed demand driven stock flow consistent model of savings inequality and growth in a macroeconomic framework sigma with exogenous growth and savings rates sigma is used to examine the evolution of inequality in the context of declining economic growth contrary to the general hypothesis we find that inequality does not necessarily increase as growth slows down in fact there are certain conditions under which inequality can be reduced significantly or even eliminated entirely as growth declines the paper discusses the implications of this finding for questions of employment government fiscal policy and the politics of de growth

supply side reforms and learning dynamics this paper studies the nature the magnitude and the length of the transition after a capital tax cut the transition is analysed with adaptive learning under which agents do not need to adjust instantaneously to the change as with rational expectations re impulse response analysis reveals that the transition with learning is asymmetrically sensitive to the nature of the exogenous technological shock at the time of the reform if the reform coincides with a negative shock the transition to the new steady state is slow whereas if it coincides with a positive shock it is approximately the same as the one predicted by re the results imply that cutting capital income taxes before or during a recession may not be an effective means for short run fiscal stimulus

explaining output volatility the case of taxation this paper presents strong empirical evidence that the observed heterogeneity of output volatility across countries and over time is partly endogenous in particular based on a closed form solution we obtain a long run equilibrium relationship between taxes and output volatility in the stochastic neoclassical growth model by showing that asymptotically the variance of output growth rates is affected by the level of taxes without affecting the mean we estimate the tax semi elasticities on output volatility and provide convincing empirical evidence that taxes are important to understand differences in output volatility among oecd countries

taxation and uncertainty while taxes may be certain u s tax policy has certainly not been furthermore intrinsic economic risk makes investment decisions risky therefore a serious examination of the effects of tax policy on dynamic economic behavior should consider both sources of uncertainty this paper presents a simple theoretical and computational model that can analyze both intrinsic risk and uncertain taxation furthermore it will be clear that these techniques will be useful for examining general problems of taxation and risk when studying the impact of past and or proposed tax changes one of two extreme assumptions are usually made either agents are perfectly aware of future tax policy a perfect foresight assumption or they always believe that no change will ever occur a myopic foresight assumption these two assumptions yield substantially different views of recent tax experience as alan auerbach and james hines 1987 demonstrate in a partial equilibrium context both are clearly wrong the myopic specification assumes that individuals believe at each point in time that the current tax law will surely continue forever even after they have been hit repeatedly with tax changes on the other hand it is absurd to think that in say 1977 a significant number of individuals perfectly knew the various tax changes that would occur during the following decade this paper analyzes a dynamic general equilibrium model wherein taxpayers understand the uncertainty in tax policy when making their deci