salvaging gresham s law the good the bad and the illegal contrary to the claims of arthur rolnick and warren weber gresham s law is not a fallacy nor does it rest on the unrealistic assumption of an operational fixed disequilibrium exchange rate between two economically distinct monies here i interpret gresham s law as a result of coercive legal tender laws aimed at discouraging agents from discriminating among alternative monies such laws can systematically drive good money out of circulation by placing buyers and sellers in a prisoner s dilemma in which the use of bad money represents a unique noncooperative equilibrium i offer some historical examples which are not readily explainable using rolnick and weber s proposed alternative to gresham s law copyright 1996 by ohio state university press

endogenous objectives and the evaluation of targeting rules for monetary policy recent research in monetary economics has followed the advice of mccallum 1988 robustness properties of a rule for monetary policy carnegie rochester conference series on public policy 29 173 203 and investigated the robustness properties of monetary policy rules by evaluating them in a variety of models evaluation across models is typically based on an exogenously specified loss function however the theory on which many recent monetary policy models are based implies that changes in the structure of the model also have consequences for the policy objectives the central bank should pursue objectives are endogenous not exogenous to the model in this paper i investigate the impact of endogenous objectives on the evaluation of targeting rules for monetary policy r 2005 elsevier b v all rights reserved

robust monetary rules under unstructured model uncertainty abstract this paper revisits a widely adopted approach to robust decision making developed by hansen and sargent 2003 hansen and sargent 2008 henceforth hs and applies it to monetary policy design in the face of model uncertainty we pay particular attention to two issues first we distinguish three possible forms of the implied game between malign nature and the policymaker in the hs procedure each leading to a different robust and approximating equilibria second we impose the zero lower bound zlb constraint on the nominal interest rate we show that the zlb constraint has serious consequences for a policymaker pursuing hs type robustness especially when accompanied by an inability to commit

on the economics of private money abstract the application of laissez faire to the monetary system is a key ingredient of important proposals for monetary reform both new and old that seek to discipline government creation of money through competition this paper provides an overview of issues to be encountered in the construction of theoretical models of private monetary economies including consideration of market imperfections that have been hypothesized to arise in these systems further some descriptive history of the less regulated monetary systems of 19th century new york is undertaken with an emphasis on discussing the nature of market generated banking and monetary institutions in light of these critiques

asset stock accumulation and sustainability of competitive advantage given incomplete factor markets appropriate time paths of flow variables must be chosen to build required stocks of assets that is critical resources are accumulated rather than acquired in strategic factor markets barney barney j 1986 strategic factor markets expectations luck and business strategy management sci october 1231 1241 sustainability of a firm s asset position hinges on how easily assets can be substituted or imitated imitability is linked to the characteristics of the asset accumulation process time compression diseconomies asset mass efficiencies inter connectedness asset erosion and causal ambiguity

the susan b anthony dollar and the theory of coin note substitutions this paper analyzes governments attempts to replace circulating notes with coins it argues that because of network externalities in currency systems a government cannot simply offer a new coin such as the susan b anthony dollar to the public and expect it to circulate even when the coin note substitution would benefit the economy for such a substitution to succeed a government may need to force the adoption of the coin by withdrawing the competing bill from circulation copyright 1994 by ohio state university press

the inflation persistence of staggered contracts one of the criticisms routinely advanced against models with staggered contracts is their inability to generate inflation persistence this paper finds that staggered contracts a la taylor are in fact capable of reproducing the inflation persistence implied by u s data following fuhrer and moore i capture the moments that the model needs to replicate by using the correlograms from a small vector autoregression var i estimate the contract parameters using the method of maximum likelihood the correlogram of inflation for the contract model is very close to the correlogram from the var by the same metric taylor contracts fare poorly in reproducing the comovements of inflation and output

sticky price models of the business cycle can the contract multiplier solve the persistence problem we construct a quantitative equilibrium model with firms setting prices in a staggered fashion and use it to ask whether monetary shocks can generate business cycle fluctuations these fluctuations include persistent movements in output along with the other defining features of business cycles like volatile investment and smooth consumption we assume that prices are exogenously sticky for a short time persistent output fluctuations require endogenous price stickiness in the sense that firms choose not to change prices much when they can do so we find that for a wide range of parameter values the amount of endogenous stickiness is small thus we find that in a standard quantitative model staggered price setting alone does not generate business cycle fluctuations

low inflation pass through and the pricing power of firms abstract recently there has been a significant decline in the degree to which firms pass through changes in costs to prices a decline that is frequently characterized as a reduction in the pricing power of firms the decline appears to be associated with the decline in inflation in many countries the decline has important implications for monetary policy because it affects both forecasts of inflation and the effects of changes in monetary policy on inflation some have argued that the decline in pricing power helped to keep inflation low in the face of apparently strong demand pressures in the united states in the late 1990s this paper puts forth the view that the decline in pass through or pricing power is due to the low inflation environment that has recently been achieved in many countries first a microeconomic model of price setting is used to show that lower pass through is caused by lower perceived persistence of cost changes evidence is then presented showing that inflation is positively correlated with persistence of inflation suggesting that the low inflation itself has caused the low pass through an economy wide model consistent with the micromodel is then presented to illustrate how such changes in pricing power affect output and inflation dynamics in favorable ways but can disappear quickly if monetary policy and expectations change

optimal horizons for inflation targeting abstract in this paper we investigate the problem of selecting an optimal horizon for inflation targeting in the united kingdom since there are two key ways of thinking about an optimal horizon we look at optimal horizons for both of these interpretations in addition to see whether our results are robust in the face of model uncertainty we compute optimal horizons for two different models with divergent structural and dynamic characteristics

a time series approach to test a change in inflation persistence the mexican experience when a central bank commits credibly to a nonaccommodative monetary policy observed inflation should be a stationary process in countries where for a variety of reasons the determinants of inflation could lead it to follow a nonstationary process the adoption of a credible disinflationary programme should therefore induce a fundamental change in the stochastic process governing inflation and in particular should diminish its persistence this article studies the time series properties of both inflation and core inflation during the 1995 2006 period for the mexican economy using recently developed techniques to detect a change in the persistence of economic time series consistently with the adoption of an inflation targeting framework the results suggest that inflation in mexico seems to have indeed switched from a nonstationary to a stationary process around the end of year 2000 or the beginning of 2001

inflation output variance trade offs and optimal monetary policy the author estimates the inflation output gap variance trade off faced by monetary policymakers in the united states for policymakers who care about deviations of inflation around target and output around potential the estimated trade off represents the optimal policy frontier given the structure of the economy policymakers can do no better than to attain weighted variances of inflation and output that lie on the frontier the author finds that the variance trade off becomes quite severe when the standard deviation of inflation or output drops much below 2 percent this suggests that approximately balanced responses to policy goals are consistent with reasonable preferences over inflation and output variability copyright 1997 by ohio state university press

antitrust economics and consumer protection economics in policy and litigation why the disparity the lag in the use of microeconomics in consumer protection policy and litigation as compared with the use of microeconomics in antitrust competition policy and litigation has at least three causes a considerably shorter period of intellectual development the specific historical origins and culture of the u s federal trade commission ftc where this disparity is especially noticeable and the splintering of consumer protection responsibilities across a very large number of federal and state agencies this paper will expand on these themes and discuss their implications including the opportunities for expanded research in the area of consumer protection economics jel b12 b13 b21 d18 l41

do states free ride in antitrust enforcement i introduction recent research has examined the role of state governments in the united states in antitrust enforcement over the past 20 years what has not been explored is the extent to which states make strategic decisions on their involvement in antitrust litigation in particular while most state antitrust cases involve purely local matters a significant number of these concern more than one state states then need to decide whether to invest in leading an investigation or letting other states take the lead and participating in some lesser role which includes simply signing on to a settlement we view the decision by a state to delay entry into antitrust litigation to be a type of free tiding behavior 1 in this paper we analyze this issue of free riding by states in antitrust activity ii previous literature one of the defining characteristics of a pure public good is the nonexcludability of the benefits from its consumption as benefits can be received by individuals without having to pay for the goods this nonexcludability creates the possibility for a free rider problem as a consequence of this free tiding behavior the private market cannot exact a price for this good and this may mean the private market will provide a suboptimal amount of the good free riders are usually used as justification for government intervention into the private market to allocate these so called public goods in order to correct the market failure while this behavior would seem rational it is not easily observed so the extent of free riding is not generally known researchers have employed experimental game evidence to measure the extent of free riding with results ranging from none to an extreme amount factors found in this literature that appear to decrease the degree of free riding behavior under certain conditions include smaller group size isaac walker and thomas 1984 experience through repeated game play fischbacher and gachter 2010 pregame communication among participants and an ability to exclude players from the group or other sanctions delmas and keller 2005 while the free rider problem and the experimental evidence have focused on private market decision makers it is straightforward to extend these behaviors to self interested governments one possibility is that governments reduce the amount of certain appropriations as a result of private contributions becker and linsday 1994 find a considerable degree of government free riding behavior in the context of appropriations to public higher education institutions an alternative source of free riding does not involve the private sector but is between government activities particularly those with significant spillover effects lee 1988 considers the issue of free riding among countries in their efforts devoted to fighting terrorism more recently sav 2010 finds a similar impact chati and kehoe 2007 provide a theoretical discussion of what they call a free rider problem among members of a monetary union in their fiscal and regulatory policies caused by an inability of the monetary authority to commit to their policies sigman 2002 finds that water pollution control is affected by the degree of spillovers crossing international borders somewhat closer to the focus of this paper konisky and woods 2010 investigate whether u s states free tide in environmental regulatory actions their results are somewhat mixed while they report some impact in reducing state enforcement of the clean air act in their counties adjacent to international borders they do not find this pattern in counties bordering other u s states a recent theoretical paper by choi and gerlach 2012 raises the concern that national antitrust enforcement in a global economy with multi market contact among exporters may be suboptimal due to free riding on the antitrust activity of other countries however no empirical evidence is provided

pitfalls of forward looking monetary policy a distinctive feature of the procedures recently adopted by inflation targeting central banks is their forward looking character forecasts of the economy s future evolution conditional upon alternative policies play a central role in the banks deliberations to an extent that the procedures adopted are sometimes characterized as forecast targeting this emphasis upon the future consequences of policy is unsurprising in an approach that tries to maintain as transparent as possible a relation between the banks9 decisions and the ultimate goals of monetary policy after all current decisions can still affect the future but not the past nonetheless common descriptions of how inflation targeting is or should be practiced go too far in proposing purely forward looking procedures i shall argue instead that an optimal framework for the conduct of monetary policy must generally be history dependent in ways

the dynamics of inflation a study of a large number of countries over the last twenty years the statistical properties of inflation persistence has been the subject of intense investigation and debate without reaching a unanimous conclusion yet in this article we attempt to shed further light to this debate using a battery of econometric techniques in order to provide robust evidence on the degree of inflation persistence and whether this has changed during the period in which several countries have followed inflation targeting regimes or new monetary regimes we consider the inflation rates of thirty developed and emerging economies using quarterly data for the period 1958 to 2007 which include alternative monetary policy regimes the coefficient of the inflation parameter is estimated by ordinary least squares ols autoregressive moving average arma and autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average arfima models furthermore the grid bootstrap median unbiased mub estimator approach developed by hansen 1999 is used to estimate the finite sample ols

application of the delphi method for the analysis of the factors determining social entrepreneurship this paper presents an exploratory analysis of the factors determining the choice of social entrepreneurship se as a business model attention is focused on the motivations for choosing this entrepreneurship alternative and on the difficulties that the people embarking on this venture encounter after applying the delphi method and with the collaboration of a panel of experts formed by 20 specialists in social entrepreneurship we can conclude that the most important motivations are the social entrepreneur s self fulfillment self esteem and passion for social issues the main obstacle meanwhile stems from a lack of business management and administration skills which makes financial and human resource management extremely difficult

inflation targeting some extensions previous analyses of the implementation of inflation targeting are extended to monetary policy responses to different shocks consequences of model uncertainty and effects of interest rate smoothing and stabilization model uncertainty output stabilization and interest rate stabilization or smoothing all call for a more gradual adjustment of the conditional inflation forecast toward the inflation target the conditional inflation forecast is the natural intermediate target during inflation targeting the optimal way of reacting to shocks is hence to check how they affect the inflation forecast and then take the appropriate action jel classification e42 e52 e58

a small estimated euro area model with rational expectations and nominal rigidities abstract we estimate a small model of the euro area to be used for evaluating alternative monetary policy strategies starting with the relationship between output and inflation we compare the fit of the nominal wage contracting model due to taylor j political econom 88 1980 1 and the relative real wage contracting model proposed by buiter and jewitt the manchester school 49 1981 211 reprinted in buiter ed macroeconomic theory and stabilization policy manchester university press manchester 1989 and estimated with u s data by fuhrer and moore quart j econom 110 1995 127 while fuhrer and moore reject nominal contracts in favor of relative contracts which induce more inflation persistence we find that both specifications fit euro area data reasonably well when considering france germany and italy separately however we find that nominal contracts fit german data better while the relative contracting model does well with respect to formerly high inflation countries such as france and italy we close the model by estimating an aggregate demand relationship and investigate the implications of nominal versus relative contracts for the inflation output variability tradeoff when monetary policy follows taylor s rule

inflation persistence and robust monetary policy design this paper examines the performance of optimised interest rate rules when there is uncertainty about a key determinant of the monetary transmission mechanism namely the degree of persistence characterising the inflation process the paper focuses on the euro area and utilises two variants of an estimated small scale macroeconomic model featuring distinct types of staggered contracts specifications which induce quite different degrees of inflation persistence the paper shows that a cautious monetary policy maker is well advised to design and implement interest rate policies under the assumption that inflation persistence is high when there is considerable uncertainty about the prevailing degree of inflation persistence such policies are characterised by a relatively aggressive response to inflation developments and exhibit a substantial degree of inertia

the suppression of state banknotes a reconsideration george selgin it is generally believed that congress in imposing a prohibitive 10 tax on state banknotes in 1865 made the public better off by doing away with inferior brands of currency while simultaneously helping finance the civil war by stimulating bond sales to national banks in truth the tax served neither purpose the true purpose of the 10 tax was not to enhance bond sales or to improve the quality of the currency but to offset the inflationary effects of greenbacks and national banknotes in the long run the public might have been better off had state banks retained their right to issue currency jel g21 n21 let us have a bank currency that will be recognized in the next town a currency that will be recognized in new york philadelphia boston new orleans chicago or any other part of the united states representative john f farnsworth illinois april 28 1864 congressional globe 38th congress 1st session 1934 i f the national banks with the great advantages which they enjoy cannot compete successfully with the state banks it simply shows that the latter subserve better the interests of the business community and should not be destroyed representative francis kernan new york february 16 1865 congressional globe 38th congress 2d session 833 i introduction during the civil war a 10 tax was placed on any issuance of notes of state chartered or incorporated banks deliberately forcing state banks out of the paper currency business and making the regulation and issuance of currency a prerogative of the federal government and of federally chartered national banks this paper reexamines the congressional decision to suppress state banknotes american monetary historians have conventionally viewed the decision as reflecting 1 the public s intolerable disgust with an unregulated currency hammond 1957 11 compare dunbar 1922 220 and 2 the government s desire to boost the demand for national bank charters so as to expand the market for its debt e g hughes and cain 1998 373 74 dowd 1992 230 i plan to argue that neither view accounts adequately for the 10 tax the first view in particular begs important questions that have gone unaddressed if state banknotes were clearly inferior to national banknotes why was a prohibitive tax needed to drive them out of circulation just how were consumers supposed to benefit from having their choices restricted i explore several responses to these questions and ultimately conclude that consumers considered some state banknotes to be just as desirable as their national bank counterparts i argue that the 10 tax served not to overcome any banknote market failure but to force the withdrawal of relatively high quality state banknotes i then proceed to show that the tax was not needed to secure adequate bond sales to national banks proponents of the tax were striving not to increase the number of applications for national bank charters but to limit growth in the aggregate money stock i conclude by suggesting that because state banks of issue could have accommodated market demands that national banks failed to satisfy consumers might have been better served had state banknotes been allowed to survive ii the chase plan when the first shots of the american civil war were fired at fort sumter the paper currency of the united states consisted of over 200 million in banknotes issued by nearly 1 500 state chartered banks the quality of these banknotes varied according to their issuers management and regulatory environment 1 some banknotes circulated at par only near their source and at fluctuating discounts elsewhere so that persons carrying notes from state to state risked incurring currency exchange losses of the sort borne by international travelers today a few were subject to especially heavy discounts or were refused altogether because their issuers solvency was in question

the optimal perception of inflation persistence is zero this study shows that in an economy with inflation persistence it is always welfare improving for a central bank that operates under discretion to behave as if there were no inflation persistence under reasonable assumptions about inflation persistence all of the inefficiency associated with discretionary policymaking is then removed

monetary policy analysis with potentially misspecified models abstract the paper proposes a novel method for conducting policy analysis with potentially misspecified dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge models and applies it to a new keynesian dsge model along the lines of christiano eichenbaum and evans jpe 2005 and smets and wouters jeea 2003 we first quantify the degree of model misspecification and then illustrate its implications for the performance of different interest rate feedback rules we find that many of the prescriptions derived from the dsge model are robust to model misspecification jel classification c32 key words bayesian analysis dsge models model misspecification 1 introduction the quantitative evaluation of monetary policy rules plays an important role in the design of stabilization policies much of the recent debate about optimal monetary policy rules has been carried out with new keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge models see woodford 2003 dsge models have the advantage that one can explicitly assess the effect of policy regime changes on expectation formation and decision rules of private agents yet until recently these models were scarcely used by central banks because they were perceived as being inferior to less structural model in terms of fit recent work by christiano eichenbaum and evans 2005 and smets and wouters 2003 has changed this perception these papers show that the fit of large scale new keynesian dsge models is comparable to that of more heavily parameterized models as a consequence a number of central banks have begun to show interest in these models as tools for quantitative policy analysis despite the success in improving the empirical performance of dsge models misspecification remains a concern as shown in del negro schorfheide smets and wouters 2004 accounting for misspecification and model uncertainty in general is an important aspect of the assessment of monetary policies after all it has long been recognized that model and parameter uncertainty affects optimal policies e g brainard 1967 chow 1975 and craine 1979 1 this paper proposes a new method for taking model misspecification into account when assessing the performance of alternative interest rate feedback rules we apply this approach to evaluate different policies in the context of a new keynesian dsge model including the estimated volcker greenspan rule a natural approach in the presence of model uncertainty is to evaluate policy rules within all the model specifications that are under consideration in choosing the best performing rule one can either follow a bayesian route assigning probabilities to models and minimizing the overall posterior expected loss alternatively one can follow a minimax strategy by adopting a policy that minimizes the worst case loss across models the literature contains numerous applications of these ideas e g mccallum 1988 levin wieland and williams 1999 2003 rudebusch 2001 2003 onatski and stock 2002 onatski and williams 2003 brock durlauf and west 2004 cogley and sargent 2005 and hansen and sargent 2005 all these papers differ with regard to the type of models included in the model set and the formulation of the decision problem that leads to the choice of a preferred policy our analysis differs from previous work with respect to the method that is used to construct a model set and assign probabilities to these models so that a bayesian calculation of posterior expected performance is possible we start from a dsge model in which monetary policy is modelled through an interest rate feedback rule the dsge model imposes cross coefficient restrictions on a vector autoregressive representation of the data while we are assuming that the data obey a vector autoregressive law of motion we allow for potential deviations from the cross coefficient restrictions at the same time we maintain the assumption that monetary policy follows the same interest rate rule as in the dsge model

hybrid inflation and price level targeting in this paper we investigate the properties of monetary regimes that combine price level and inflation targeting we look both at an optimal control and at a simple rule characterisation of these regimes we derive numerical results by modelling the economy as a small scale open economy re model calibrated on uk data we conclude that 1 the relative merits of price level and inflation targeting as well as of mixes of these two depend on particular modelling and policy assumptions and 2 these merits do not always change gradually and or monotonically as we move from one regime to another

insurance policies for monetary policy in the euro area in this paper we aim to design a monetary policy for the euro area that is robust to the high degree of model uncertainty at the start of monetary union and allows for learning about model probabilities using the data that has become available since then to this end we compare and ultimately combine bayesian and worst case analysis using four reference models developed at the ecb and estimated with pre emu synthetic data we start by computing the cost of insurance against model uncertainty that is the relative performance of worst case or minimax policy versus bayesian policy we find that maximum insurance across this range of models can be obtained at moderate costs costs are measured in terms of lower expected performance relative to a bayesian policy with flat priors further scrutiny however highlights three shortcomings of this worst case insurance policy i prior beliefs that would rationalize the minimax policy from a bayesian perspective indicate that such insurance is strongly oriented towards the model with highest baseline losses ii the minimax policy is not as tolerant towards small perturbations of policy parameters as the bayesian policy and iii the minimax policy offers no avenue for incorporating posterior model probabilities derived from data available since monetary union thus we propose preferences for robust policy design that reflect a mixture of the bayesian and minimax approaches these preferences referred to as intermediate ambiguity aversion incorporate model probabilities while still giving extra weight to the worst uncertain outcomes we show how the incoming emu data may then be used to update model probabilities and investigate the implications for policy design

estimation and control of an optimization based model with sticky prices and wages abstract this paper provides estimates of an optimization based equilibrium model with sticky prices and wages the estimated model is used to analyse the welfare properties of various interest rate rules for conducting monetary policy an important feature of this model is that it involves a tradeoff between the variances of price and wage inflation and the output gap this tradeoff implies that it is desirable for the monetary authority to respond to wage inflation in addition to price inflation output and past interest rates when setting the current interest rate the issue whether wages and prices can be indexed to steady state inflation has important implications both for the characterization of optimal interest rate rules and interest rate volatility in particular optimal policy in the presence of indexation induces implausibly high steady state inflation

european inflation dynamics abstract we provide evidence on the fit of the new phillips curve npc for the euro area over the period 1970 1998 and use it as a tool to compare the characteristics of european inflation dynamics with those observed in the u s we also analyze the factors underlying inflation inertia by examining the cyclical behavior of marginal costs as well as that of its two main components namely labor productivity and real wages some of the findings can be summarized as follows a the npc fits euro area data very well possibly better than u s data b the degree of price stickiness implied by the estimates is substantial but in line with survey evidence and u s estimates c inflation dynamics in the euro area appear to have a stronger forward looking component i e less inertia than in the u s d labor market frictions as manifested in the behavior of the wage markup appear to have played a key role in shaping the behavior of marginal costs and consequently inflation in europe

a positive theory of social entrepreneurship i propose a theory aimed at advancing scholarly research in social entrepreneurship by highlighting the key trade off between value creation and value capture and explaining when situations of simultaneous market and government failure may arise i suggest that social entrepreneurship is the pursuit of sustainable solutions to neglected problems with positive externalities i further discuss the situations in which problems with externalities are likely to be neglected and derive the central goal and logic of action of social entrepreneurs in contrast to commercial entrepreneurs overall this article provides a conceptual framework that allows understanding the growing phenomena of social entrepreneurship and its role in the functioning of modern society

convergence of inflationary shocks evidence from the caribbean in this paper we aim to shed some light on the inflation dynamics in the caribbean we analyse the inflation rates for twelve countries using various time series methods the results show that the inflation rates are mean reverting processes and that there is evidence of a convergence club in inflation rates within the area which contradicts previous studies our contribution implies a high degree of similarity in the dynamics of our target countries inflation rates

monetary policy with uncertain parameters this thesis contains four chapters each of which examines different aspects of the uncertainty facing monetary policymakers monetary policy and market interest rates investigates how interest rates set on financial markets respond to policy actions taken by the monetary authorities the reaction of market rates is shown to depend crucially on market participants interpretation of the factors underlying the policy move these theoretical predictions find support in an empirical analysis of the u s financial markets predicting monetary policy using federal funds futures prices examines how prices of federal funds futures contracts can be used to predict policy moves by the federal reserve although the futures prices exhibit systematic variation across trading days and calendar months they are shown to be fairly successful in predicting the federal funds rate target that will prevailafter the next meeting of the federal open market committee from 1994 to 1998 monetary policy with uncertain parameters examines the effects of parameter uncertainty on the optimal monetary policy strategy under certain parameter configurations increasing uncertainty is shown to lead to more aggressive policy in contrast to the accepted wisdom should central banks be more aggressive examines why a certain class of monetary policy models leads to more aggressive policy prescriptions than what is observed in reality these counterfactual results are shown to be due to model restrictions rather than central banks being too cautious in their policy behavior an unrestricted model taking the dynamics of the economy and multiplicative parameter uncertainty into account leads to optimal policy prescriptions which are very close to observed federal reserve behavior

inflation persistence and monetary policy a simple result abstract this note explores the interaction between monetary policy and structural inflation persistence in the context of a new keynesian inflation model we solve the monetary policy problem under discretion and find that optimal monetary policy is a function of the relative weight on the output gap in the welfare theoretic stabilization objective the responsiveness of inflation to fluctuations in the output and the perceived degree of inflation persistence within our simple framework we find that underestimating inflation persistence always reduces inflation variability

state antitrust enforcement in the us and implications for small business entry and relocation this article examines the impact of the important yet little studied state level antitrust enforcement activity on entry and relocation behaviour by small us firms feinberg and husted 2011 have shown that this enforcement especially nonhorizontal cases may be viewed by potential entrants as a negative aspect of the state business climate however they did not pursue a more disaggregate analysis of small firm entry behaviour nor did they investigate different responses between manufacturing wholesaling and retailing firms another related issue is the extent to which state cases filed in tandem with federal investigations have the same impact on establishment entry as do purely independent cases these considerations are dealt with in this article the author uses annual state level data from the statistics of us business to examine entry and relocation reactions to state antitrust enforcement by firms within three small business categories 1 19 employees 20 99 employees 100 499 employees g

does trade openness matter for aggregate instability abstract this paper presents a cash in advance model of a small open economy and shows that whether an inflation targeting interest rate rule introduces aggregate instability depends in general on the degree of openness to international trade this result emerges regardless of whether prices are sticky or flexible in a closed economy as the monetary authority responds to movements in inflation the resulting changes in interest rates affect aggregate consumption through an intertemporal substitution effect and an inflation tax effect in a small open economy this policy also induces changes in the terms of trade which depending on the degree of openness can generate counteracting effects on consumption as a consequence the implications of interest rate rules on macroeconomic stability in an open economy differ from those in a closed economy

should inflation targeting central banks respond to exchange rate movements abstract this paper examines whether it is optimal for inflation targeting central banks to respond to exchange rate movements the paper finds that exchange rate movements can provide a signal on the developments in the economy that the central bank cannot perfectly observe the results suggest that when the degrees of exchange rate pass through and international financial integration are high it is optimal for the central bank to pay more attentions to exchange rate movements these results however depend on two conditions 1 the ability of the central bank to observe the true exchange rate process and 2 the number of real frictions in the model economy

the performance of forecast based monetary policy rules under model uncertainty we investigate the performance of forecast based monetary policy rules using five macroeconomic models that reflect a wide range of views on aggregate dynamics we identify the key characteristics of rules that are robust to model uncertainty such rules respond to the one year ahead inflation forecast and to the current output gap and incorporate a substantial degree of policy inertia in contrast rules with longer forecast horizons are less robust and are prone to generating indeterminacy in light of these results we identify a robust benchmark rule that performs very well in all five models over a wide range of policy preferences