welfare implications of the transition to high household debt abstract aggressive deregulation of the mortgage market in the early 1980s triggered innovations that greatly reduced indebted households required home equity and a borrowing surge followed this paper uses a calibrated general equilibrium model of lending from the wealthy to the middle class to evaluate the welfare effects of this reform quantitatively we find that the indirect effects of endogenous interest rate and other relative price changes dominate the direct effect of relaxing the constraint the borrowing household s welfare falls even though the reform directly relaxes a constraint on its trade the saving household s welfare rises substantially

patent protection in developing countries and global welfare wto obligations versus flexibilities abstract this paper develops a north south model to evaluate the south s incentive for patent protection when a northern firm s investment in quality enhancing research and development r d is affected by its patent policy the model is used to a evaluate the impact of requiring the south to fulfill its key wto obligation of instituting patent protection and b to address the role of two major flexibilities that wto members enjoy with respect to their patent policies the freedom to implement exhaustion policies of their choosing and the right to use compulsory licensing cl subject to certain stipulations two forces drive the model how much the firm invests in r d and whether or not selling in the south maximizes its global profit cl improves consumer access in the south and can even raise innovation and global welfare provided the south implements patent protection innovation and welfare are higher if the north follows national as opposed to international exhaustion however the south s incentive for patent protection is not necessarily stronger under national exhaustion not only is cl more likely to be used under international exhaustion the welfare gain resulting from its application is also higher relative to that under national exhaustion

the fisher hypothesis and the forecastability and persistence of inflation abstract for the period 1860 to 1939 the simple correlation of the u s commercial paper rate with the contemporaneous inflation rate is 0 17 the corresponding correlation for the period 1950 to 1979 is 0 71 this paper attributes this apparent change in the fisher relation to differences in the stochastic process of inflation rather than a change in any structural relationship between interest rates and expected inflation contrary to recent claims in the literature there is little evidence of inflation non neutrality in data from the pre world war i period

a stochastic variance factor model for large datasets and an application to s p data the aim of this paper is to consider multivariate stochastic volatility models for large dimensional datasets we suggest use of the principal component methodology of stock and watson 2002 for the stochastic volatility factor model discussed by harvey ruiz and shephard 1994 the method is simple and computationally tractable for very large datasets we provide theoretical results on this method and apply it to s p data

are higher levels of inflation less predictable a state dependent conditional heteroscedasticity approach milton friedman proposed that there is a positive relationship between inflation and uncertainty about the future path of inflation in contrast to previous studies of this hypothesis we find strong statistical evidence that higher levels of inflation are less predictable although innovations in inflation are somewhat better predictors of future volatility than the actual level of inflation we argue that previous failures to find an inflation uncertainty relationship are due to two factors first none of the previous work directly tested friedman s hypothesis by including the level of inflation in the model of the conditional variance second these studies also used symmetric models which appears inconsistent with friedman s hypothesis our results are robust to different sample periods and to assumptions about the presence of a unit root in inflation to test the inflation uncertainty hypothesis we use state dependent models sdm s of conditional moments to estimate the time varying conditional v

parallel imports price controls and innovation the impact of parallel trade on innovation in r d intensive industries such as pharmaceuticals is a hotly debated question in antitrust and ip policy the well known argument that parallel trade dampens innovation by undermining firms ability to price discriminate has been challenged by recent literature the argument is that with endogenous price controls parallel trade increases innovation by reducing governments incentives to set particularly low price caps in this paper we show that this result crucially depends on the degree of homogeneity of the trading countries the result only holds if consumers in poorer countries have a relatively similar demand for medication as consumers in richer countries instead when countries are relatively heterogeneous parallel trade dampens innovation and lowers welfare by exporting price cap regulation from poorer to richer countries these findings are in line with recent case evidence we also show that when patent length is endogenous richer countries will tend to choose longer patent protection with parallel trade whereas equilibrium price caps tend to be tighter in that case

persistence in international inflation rates we test for fractional dynamics in inflation rates based on the consumer price index cpi for 27 countries and inflation rates based on the wholesale price index wpi for 22 countries the fractional differencing parameter is estimated using semiparametric and approximate maximum likelihood methods significant evidence of fractional dynamics with long memory features is found in both cpi and wpi based inflation rates for industrial as well as developing countries implications of the findings are considered and sources of long memory are hypothesized

long memory versus structural breaks in modeling and forecasting realized volatility we explore the possibility of structural breaks in the daily realized volatility of the deutschemark dollar yen dollar and yen deutschemark spot exchange rates with observed long memory behavior we find that structural breaks in the mean can partly explain the persistence of realized volatility we propose a var rv break model that provides superior predictive ability when the timing of future breaks is known with unknown break dates and sizes we find that a var rv i d long memory model provides a robust forecasting method even when the true financial volatility series are generated by structural breaks

inflation output growth and nominal and real uncertainty empirical evidence for the g7 abstract we use univariate garch models of inflation and output growth and monthly data for the g7 covering the 1957 2000 period to test for the causal effect of real and nominal macroeconomic uncertainty on inflation and output growth and the effect of inflation on inflation uncertainty our evidence supports a number of important conclusions first inflation is a positive determinant of uncertainty about inflation second output growth uncertainty is a positive determinant of the output growth rate third there is mixed evidence regarding the effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation and output growth hence uncertainty about the inflation rate is not necessarily detrimental to economic growth finally there is not much evidence supporting the hypothesis that output uncertainty raises inflation

retailers as agents and the limits of parallel trade abstract the volume of retail level parallel trade is surprisingly small despite persistent international price differences we offer an agency based explanation by considering competition between an original home manufacturer and a foreign retailer the model endogenizes the role of the retailer as an agent with private information on the perceived quality of the good in its own market the manufacturer cannot control the retailer once the latter has ordered its sales quantity but it can limit the initial offer if parallel trade is permitted this offer will fall if there is incomplete information resulting in a small or zero volume of parallel trade this outcome makes both the original producer and foreign consumers worse off while offering little benefit to home consumers compared to the case where such trade is banned

equilibrium parallel import policies and international market structure in a north south vertically differentiated duopoly the analysis in this paper derives equilibrium government policies towards parallel imports by incorporating strategic interaction at the policy setting stage and the product market the model sheds new light on i the effects of parallel import policies on pricing behavior of firms and ii the interdependence of national parallel import policies if demand asymmetry across countries is sufficiently large the north forbids parallel imports to ensure its firm sells in the south thereby generating international price discrimination the south s most preferred market outcome as the equilibrium when demand structures are relatively similar across countries the north permits parallel imports and uniform pricing its most preferred market outcome obtains

further long memory properties of inflationary shocks several previous studies have found fractionally integrated or long memory behavior in the conditional mean of inflation this paper notes that extremely similar phenomena are also apparent in the squared and absolute values of residuals from fractionally filtered inflation series hence the inflation process appears to have a dual long memory feature in both its first and its second conditional moments we suggest a parametric model of long memory in both the conditional mean and the conditional variance some monte carlo evidence is presented that supports estimation of the model by approximate maximum likelihood methods we then report estimated models for the inflation series for several different industrialized countries including the united states for nearly all of the countries in our study there is strong evidence of statistically significant long memory parameters in both the conditional mean and the variance we note some of the implications for modeling inflation

what is fractional integration a simple construction that will be referred to as an error duration model is shown to generate fractional integration and long memory an error duration representation also exists for many familiar arma models making error duration an alternative to autoregression for explaining dynamic persistence in economic variables the results lead to a straightforward procedure for simulating fractional integration and establish a connection between fractional integration and common notions of structural change two examples show how the error duration model could account for fractional integration in aggregate employment and in asset price volatility

why the microbrewery movement organizational dynamics of resource partitioning in the u s brewing industry1 the number of small specialty brewers in the u s beer brewing industry has increased dramatically in recent decades even as the market for beer became increasingly dominated by mass production brewing companies using the resource partitioning model of organizational ecology this article shows that these two apparently contradictory trends are fundamentally interrelated hypotheses developed here refine the way scale competition among generalist organizations is modeled and improve the theoretical development of the sociological bases for the appeal of specialist organizations products especially those related to organizational identity evidence drawn from qualitative and quantitative research provides strong support for the theory the article offers a brief discussion of the theoretical and substantive issues involved in application of the model to other industries and to other cultures

parallel imports and the pricing of pharmaceutical products evidence from the european union we consider policy issues regarding parallel imports pis of brand name pharmaceuticals in the european union where such trade is permitted we develop a simple model in which an original manufacturer competes in its home market with pi firms the model suggests that for small trade costs the original manufacturer will accommodate the import decisions of parallel traders and that the price in the home market falls as the volume of parallel imports rises using data from sweden we find that the prices of drugs subject to competition from parallel imports fell relative to other drugs over the period 1994 1999 econometric analysis finds that parallel imports significantly reduced manufacturing prices by 12 19 there is evidence that this effect increases with multiple pi entrants

an elementary proposition concerning parallel imports abstract this paper demonstrates that when countries individually choose whether or not to prohibit parallel imports a global nash equilibrium involves the permitting of parallel importing into all relevant foreign markets i e global uniform pricing this result is sensitive in a straightforward way to the tariff setting powers of countries and to the specification of a government s objective function i e political economy considerations we also show that when countries can prevent parallel exports then any nash equilibrium involves global price discrimination

international effects of national regulations external reference pricing and price controls under external reference pricing erp the price that a government permits a firm to charge in its market depends upon the firm s prices in other countries in a two country home and foreign model where demand is asymmetric across countries we show that home s unilaterally optimal erp policy permits the home firm to engage in a threshold level of international price discrimination above which it is just willing to export if the firm faces a price control abroad or bargains over price with the foreign government an erp policy can even yield higher home welfare than a direct price control

the impact of quotas and tariffs on strategic r d behavior quotas and tariffs are compared in a two stage cournot duopoly game where r d is chosen initially and output is selected subsequently imposing a quota at or below the free trade import level results in either a pure strategy or a mixed strategy equilibrium compared to an equally restrictive tariff a quota leads to higher domestic profits but lower domestic output and r d in a pure strategy equilibrium furthermore a quota and a tariff may often produce opposite effects on domestic r d a quota set above the free trade import level may become binding and may lead to multiple equilibria copyright 1991 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

multifractality in asset returns theory and evidence this paper investigates the multifractal model of asset returns mmar a class of continuous time processes that incorporate the thick tails and volatility persistence exhibited by many financial time series the simplest version of the mmar compounds a brownian motion with a multifractal time deformation prices follow a semi martingale which precludes arbitrage in a standard two asset economy volatility has long memory and the highest finite moments of returns can take any value greater than 2 the local variability of a sample path is highly heterogeneous and is usefully characterized by the local holder exponent at every instant in contrast with earlier processes this exponent takes a continuum of values in any time interval the mmar predicts that the moments of returns vary as a power law of the time horizon we confirm this property for deutsche mark u s dollar exchange rates and several equity series we develop an estimation procedure and infer a parsimonious generating mechanism for the e

resource distributions and market partitioning dutch daily newspapers 1968 to 1994 resource partitioning theory explains how in heavily concentrated populations specialist organizations arise and proliferate the theory also addresses the process of market concentration itself although far less attention has been devoted to the theoretical claims in this area in this analysis the theory is used to explain generalist concentration through the distribution of environmental market resources it is argued that the higher the homogeneity and concentration of relevant environmental resources the higher the concentration of large generalist organizations competing on the basis of scale using data on the dutch daily newspaper industry from 1968 to 1994 statistical analyses show that concentration among generalist national newspapers occurs more fully in province level markets where the readership base consists of relatively homogeneous sets of individuals in terms of age religion politics and education at the same time these concentrated markets prove to be fertile areas for the operation of specialist papers at least when resources are not fully homogenized the analysis thus provides a more complete model of the resource partitioning process among organizations in a population

are credit unions too small abstract u s credit unions serve 93 million members hold 10 of u s savings deposits and make 13 2 of all nonrevolving consumer loans since 1985 the share of u s depository institution asse

the real costs of credit access evidence from the payday lending market using geographic differences in the availability of payday loans i estimate the real effects of credit access among low income households payday loans are small high interest rate loans that constitute the marginal source of credit for many high risk borrowers i find no evidence that payday loans alleviate economic hardship to the contrary loan access leads to increased difficulty paying mortgage rent and utilities bills the empirical design isolates variation in loan access that is uninfluenced by lenders location decisions and state regulatory decisions two factors that might otherwise correlate with economic hardship measures further analysis of differences in loan availability over time and across income groups rules out a number of alternative explanations for the estimated effects counter to the view that improving credit access facilitates important expenditures the results suggest that for some low income households the debt service burden imposed by borrowing inhibits their ability to pay important bills copyright 2011 oxford university press

the semiparametric asymmetric stochastic volatility model with time varying parameters the case of us inflation we propose a semiparametric extension of the time varying parameter regression model with asymmetric stochastic volatility for parameter estimation we use bayesian methods we illustrate our methods with an application to us inflation

evidence on the extent and potential sources of long memory in u s treasury security returns and yields unlike equity returns many fixed income return measures appear to display long memory we show that the extent of long memory differs strongly for gross and excess holding period returns on u s treasury securities granger and others have argued that long memory may only reflect infrequent structural breaks we explore the impact of structural instability on tests for long memory and find only weak indications that it lies behind the long memory in our return series the evidence of long memory remains strong for yield and term premia series even after accounting for a series of potential underlying structural changes

is inflation persistence different in reality this study examines the inflation persistence using both online and official price indexes in argentina brazil china japan germany south africa the uk and the us using fractional integration technique the main results suggest that the degree of persistence estimated by the long memory parameter is smaller when using online price indexes believed to be a more realistic measure of inflation mainly in the cases of argentina brazil china and the uk monetary policy implications are discussed

modeling long memory and structural breaks in conditional variances an adaptive figarch approach this paper introduces a new long memory volatility process denoted by adaptive figarch or a figarch which is designed to account for both long memory and structural change in the conditional variance process structural change is modeled by allowing the intercept to follow a slowly varying function speci ed by gallant 1984 s exible functional form a monte carlo study nds that the a figarch model outperforms the standard figarch model when structural change is present and performs at least as well in the absence of structural instability an empirical application to stock market volatility is also included to illustrate the usefulness of the technique

the indian inflation growth relationship revisited robust evidence from time frequency analysis abstractthis article re visits the inflation growth nexus in india using the tools of wavelet i e wavelet correlation wavelet cross correlation and scale by scale granger causality test wavelet

a quantile framework for analysing the links between inflation uncertainty and inflation dynamics across countries in contrast to the conventional conditional mean approaches this study uses quantile regression techniques to present some new statistical evidence on the links between inflation uncertainty and the level of inflation with cross sectional data from 90 countries during the period 1961 to 2006 the results suggest that positive inflation shocks have stronger impact on inflation uncertainty which varies across the quantiles furthermore popular time series models are evaluated for their ability to reproduce measures of uncertainty and indicate similar results regarding the relationships between inflation and inflation uncertainty

expanding credit access using randomized supply decisions to estimate the impacts expanding access to commercial credit is a key ingredient of financial development strategies there is less consensus on whether expanding access to consumer credit helps borrowers particularly when loans are extended at high interest rates popular skepticism about unproductive usurious lending is fueled by research highlighting behavioral biases that may induce overborrowing we estimate the impacts of expanding access to consumer credit at a 200 annual percentage rate apr using a field experiment and follow up data collection the randomly assigned marginal loans produced significant net benefits for borrowers across a wide range of outcomes there is also some evidence that the loans were profitable the author 2009 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oxfordjournals org oxford university press

co movements and spillovers of oil and renewable firms under extreme conditions new evidence from negative wti prices during covid 19 we test for the existence of volatility spillovers and co movements among energy focused corporations during the outbreak of the covid 19 pandemic inclusive of the april 2020 events where west texas intermediate wti oil future prices became negative employing the spillover index approach of diebold and yilmaz 2012 as well as developing a dcc figarch conditional correlation framework and using estimated spillover indices built on a generalised vector autoregressive framework in which forecast error variance decompositions are invariant to the variable ordering we examine the sectoral transmission mechanisms of volatility shocks and contagion throughout the energy sector among several results we find positive and economically meaningful spillovers from falling oil prices to both renewable energy and coal markets however this result is only found for the narrow portion of our sample surrounding the negative wti event we interpret our results being directly attributed to a sharp drop in global oil gas and coal demand rather than because of a sudden increase in oil supply while investors observed the us fracking industry losing market share to coal they also viewed renewables as more reliable mechanism to generate long term stable and low cost supply

analysing inflation by the fractionally integrated arfima garch model this paper considers the application of long memory processes to describing inflation for ten countries we implement a new procedure to obtain approximate maximum likelihood estimates of an arfima garch process which is fractionally integrated i d with a superimposed stationary arma component in its conditional mean additionally this long memory process is allowed to have garch type conditional heteroscedasticity on analysing monthly post world war ii cpi inflation for ten different countries we find strong evidence of long memory with mean reverting behaviour for all countries except japan which appears stationary for three high inflation economies there is evidence that the mean and volatility of inflation interact in a way that is consistent with the friedman hypothesis

macroeconomic uncertainty and performance in the european union abstract we use a very general bivariate garch m model and monthly data on eu countries covering the 1962 2003 period to test for the impact of real output growth and nominal inflation macroeconomic uncertainty on inflation and output growth our evidence supports a number of important conclusions first in the majority of countries uncertainty regarding the output growth rate is related to the average growth rate and the effect in several countries is negative second in half of the cases there is no significant relationship between inflation uncertainty and output growth performance third inflation and output uncertainty have a mixed effect on inflation nevertheless considerable evidence for the cukierman meltzer hypothesis is obtained our conclusions are based on adopting both a structural and a reduced form bivariate garch model finally we also find statistically significant evidence of regime switching for both inflation and output growth volatility throughout the sample

the japanese deflation has it had real effects could it have been avoided has deflation contributed to the long lasting stagnation of the japanese economy could the bank of japan have stopped deflation by implementing a more expansionary monetary policy tentative answers are probably not to the first question and probably yes to the second question it is found that the total cost of deflation over the period 1995 2003 has been close to a 1 1 rate of lost gdp yet on the basis of statistical significance and robustness to specification choices this evidence is not compelling on the other hand the estimated positive linkage between nominal base money growth and inflation is significant and robust even given current economic conditions however in order to be inflationary monetary policy should have been more expansionary than what actually observed even since the launch of the quantitative easing in 2001

pharmaceutical innovation and parallel trade abstract this paper proposes a north south model to study the interaction between price regulation policies and parallel trade with a particular focus on the pharmaceutical sector we show that under parallel trade r d investment can rise only when the south government takes into full account its impact both on investment and on the firm s decision to supply the regulated country this arises because of a complete withdrawal from price regulation when policy choices are endogenized indeed the south wants to achieve this level of full commitment when it is large in size when instead it is smaller in size the south chooses an intermediate form of commitment whereby it anticipates its effect only on local distribution and delivery but not on global r d investment as a response to these credible levels of price control commitments the north reacts by allowing parallel imports from the south

fractional integration in agricultural futures price volatilities this article tests whether the volatility of agricultural futures prices exhibits fractional integration volatility series were constructed for fourteen agricultural futures price series with over 5 300 observations per series the volatility series exhibit strong long term dependence which is an indicator of fractional integration a fractional integration model figarch 1 d 1 performs significantly better than a traditional volatility model garch 1 1 in modeling agricultural futures price volatility

long memory and persistence in aggregate output abstract we examine persistence in u s aggregate output by estimating fractionally integrated arima models these models provide better low frequency approximations to the wold representation than previous stochastic specifications and earlier results on the importance of a permanent component emerge as special cases we find evidence of long memory which induces persistence though this long memory need not be associated with a unit root our point estimates indicate that macroeconomic shocks while persistent are distinctly less persistent than many earlier studies suggest however confidence intervals associated with the long run response are quite wide

unit root and cointegration tests timeseries versus panel estimates for international health expenditure models classical regression estimates of the determinants of the oecd health expenditures are useful for policy formulation and evaluation however if the underlying timeseries data are not collectively stationary in levels the estimated parameters are faulty and can misguide health policy until very recently the crucial stationarity tests were ignored in a large number of studies on international comparisons stationarity adf phillips perron ips heterogeneous panel and cointegration engle granger bivariate johansen s multivariate tests are conducted here using 1960 1997 health expenditures data 1998 cd rom of 19 oecd countries it is found that extending the time series data length affects the order of integration and number of cointegrating vectors however it is arguable whether the order of integration decreases or increases as more observations are added for testing the failure of the johansen and engle granger cointegration tests for most of the oecd countries cautions policy makers against

measuring asymmetry and persistence in conditional volatility in real output evidence from three east asian tigers using a multivariate garch approach we search for evidence of conditional volatility in the quarterly real gross domestic product gdp growth rates of three east asian tigers singapore hong kong and taiwan the widely accepted exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity egarch type model is used to capture the existence of asymmetric volatility and the potential structural break points in the volatility we find evidence of asymmetry and persistence in the volatility of gdp growth rates it is noted that the structural breakpoints of volatility correspond reasonably well to the historical economic and political events in these economies policy implications from our findings are discussed

strategic competition and optimal parallel import policy this paper shows that parallel import policy can act as an instrument of strategic trade policy we demonstrate this result in two country international duopoly where a domestic monopolist competes with a rival rm in the foreign market if it chooses to incur the xed investment cost of exporting the two rms sell horizontally dierentiated goods and compete in prices when the foreign market is signi cantly larger than the domestic one the home rm gains if it is unable to price discriminate its desire to not deviate too far from its optimal monopoly price in the domestic market makes it credibly less aggressive in price competition abroad which softens price competition and raises pro ts on the other hand when the foreign market is not signi cantly larger it is optimal for the home country to forbid parallel imports since international price discrimination yields higher pro ts to the home rm we draw out the implications of the two types of parallel import policies for global welfare

on the persistence of prices in mexico a fractional integration approach abstracta relevant yet often overlooked characteristic of the inflation rate is its mean reverting property if a series has this feature shocks eventually dissipate whereas if it does not they have a permanent effect on the series the usual i 1 versus i 0 dichotomy in time series econometrics goes only so far towards disentangling this issue by employing a methodology that estimates the persistence of inflation by allowing i fractional integration and ii persistence and level shifts in the series we aim to define whether it is stationary and or mean reverting and if so during which periods the results of our analysis for the period 1987 2015 are threefold firstly inflation in the eighties and nineties should be seen as a highly persistent yet mean reverting process not a random walk secondly inflation remained mean reverting though became a short memory less persistent process around the date of the implementation of the inflation targeting framework of 2001 thirdly during the l

long memory in inflation rates international evidence we examine monthly inflation rates of five industrial countries the application of tests against stationarity as well as tests against a unit root yield contradictory results thus fractional integration allowing for long memory is a plausible model we discuss and apply the periodogram regression to estimate the difference parameters for all countries we find estimates significantly different from 1 as well as from 0 this is evidence in favor of long memory specification tests and maximum likelihood estimates support the fitted models finally we relate our empirical results to the construction of the data

the long run fisher effect can it be tested empirical support for the long run fisher effect a hypothesis that a permanent change in inflation leads to an equal change in the nominal interest rate has been hard to come by this paper provides a plausible explanation of why past studies have been unable to find support for the long run fisher effect this paper argues that the necessary permanent change to the inflation rate following a monetary shock has not occurred in the industrialized countries of australia austria belgium canada denmark france germany greece ireland italy japan the netherlands norway sweden switzerland the united kingdom and the united states instead this paper shows that inflation in these countries follows a mean reverting fractionally integrated long memory process not the nonstationary inflation process that is integrated of order one or larger found in previous studies of the fisher effect applying a bivariate maximum likelihood estimator to a fractionally integrated model of inflation and the nominal interest rate the inflation rate in all seventeen countries is found to be a highly persistent fractionally integrated process with a positive differencing parameter significantly less than one hence in the long run inflation in these countries will be unaffected by a monetary shock and a test of the long run fisher effect will be invalid and uninformative as to the truthfulness of the long run fisher effect hypothesis

inflation targeting an indirect approach to assess the direct impact it is quite difficult to assess the benefits of inflation targeting it since its immediate effect will be on inflation expectations an unobserved variable due to lack of comprehensive data on inflation expectations most studies so far concentrated on the impact of it either on observable variables like output unemployment and inflation or compared post it surveys of itcountries with nonit countries in our study we focus on a yet unanswered question i e how the expectations change with the adoption of it we suggest that heterogeneous inflation expectations lead to long memory in actual inflation and it if successful should decrease this persistence by concentrating the public s expectations toward the announced target empirical results confirm our hypothesis with a reduction in inflation memory after the adoption of it in almost all eight developed countries in our sample

do substantial horizontal mergers generate significant price effects evidence from the banking industry this study examines the price effects of recent us bank mergers that substantially increased local market concentration using the deposit interest rates that banks offer their customers as our price measure we find that over the 1991 94 time period deposit rates offered by participants in substantial horizontal mergers and their local market rivals declined by a greater percentage than did deposit rates offered by banks not operating in markets in which such mergers took place we interpret our results as evidence that these mergers led to increased market power

resource partitioning and the organizational dynamics of fringe banking we examine the emergence and proliferation of payday lenders fringe businesses that provide small short term but high cost loans we link the organizational dynamics of these businesses to two trends in consumer lending in the united states the continuing consolidation of mainstream financial institutions and the expansion of such institutions in the provision of financial services regarded as similar to payday loans we explain the coexistence in mature industries of large scale organizations in the market center and smaller specialists in the periphery by testing and extending the organizational model of resource partitioning our focus is on two under examined aspects of the model the dynamic underlying the partitioning process and the conditions under which the market remains partitioned the empirical analysis covers payday lenders banks and credit unions operating in wisconsin between 1994 and 2008

gray market trade with product information service in global supply chains abstract this paper investigates the economic effects of a product information service when potential consumers who are segmented by their taste exist in gray markets specifically we construct an economic model that considers a multinational firm mnf who expands business to a country and chooses whether to provide information service regarding product characteristics if receiving the information consumers in a specific segment whose taste suits the characteristics have positive utility from consuming the product while those in other segments have no utility by contrast consumers in all segments have positive expected utility before consuming the product without information with these settings we demonstrate that there arises the equilibrium that the mnf provides no information service when gray market trade i e parallel trade is allowed in the country leading to lower consumer welfare than when it is prohibited a primary finding in the equilibrium is that such a situation arises especially when potential consumers are less segmented in this situation the regulator in the country should ban the parallel imports so as to enhance consumer welfare the result is counterintuitive and notable because one might intuitively infer that gray market trade is less desirable when customers are more minutely segmented and the product information service is thus more specific and necessary

deregulation and competition in the financial industry deregulation has stimulated much economic and political interest this paper develops a framework for understanding the effects of deregulation from an ecological perspective and reports empirical studies of financial institutions banks thrifts and mutual funds at two levels of analysis the system and the population these both show that deregulation bad a dramatic impact on the level of competitive intensity within the financial industry the main contributions of this paper are the application of a general sociological theory of organizational dynamics to understanding deregulation and the development of a general approach to modelling which could lead to new ways to evaluate the organizational consequences of major environmental changes

long memory or structural changes an empirical examination on inflation rates abstract the modified local whittle method is proposed for testing long memory when the data have structural changes we apply it to analyze monthly g7 inflation rates empirical results show that for germany and japan the long memory phenomenon may just be a consequence of structural changes and that for other countries the inflation rates may have both long memory and structural changes

the incentives for cost reduction in a differentiated industry abstract this paper investigates how the incentives for cost reduction in a differentiated industry depend upon the degree of product substitutability when goods are imperfect substitutes both cournot and bertrand competition result in underinvestment in the sense that a social planner would be willing to pay more for a given cost reduction than a profit maximizing firm overinvestment may occur when the goods are sufficiently close substitutes similarly cournot competition provides a stronger incentive to innovate than bertrand competition if the degree of substitutability is low and a weaker incentive if this degree is high

dynamics of persistence in international inflation rates characteristics of inflation play a key role in policy formulation and market analysis several studies have analyzed inflation persistence and reached diverging conclusions in this paper we investigate the dynamics of inflation persistence using fractionally integrated processes and find that there has been a clear decline in inflation persistence in the united states over the past two decades we also show that the presence of fractional integration in inflation successfully explains previous diverging results lastly we provide some international comparisons to examine the extent to which there has been a commensurate decline in inflation persistence in the other g7 economies

on the power of dickey fuller tests against fractional alternatives abstract we examine the properties of dickey fuller unit root tests under fractionally integrated alternatives and find that these tests have quite low power

fractional monetary dynamics we test for fractional dynamics in us monetary series their various formulations and components and velocity series using the spectral regression method we find evidence of a fractional exponent in the differencing process of the monetary series both simple sum and divisia indices in their components with the exception of demand deposits savings deposits overnight repurchase agreements and term repurchase agreements and the monetary base and money multipliers no evidence of fractional behaviour is found in the velocity series granger s journal of econometrics 25 1980 aggregation hypothesis is evaluated and implications of the presence of fractional monetary dynamics are drawn

differential pricing parallel trade and the incentive to invest abstract i consider the case for imposing uniform pricing on a monopolist in a setting where markets can be segmented according to differences in marginal costs and or consumer demand i also analyze the ex ante impact on incentives to invest in r d i show how two opposite trade offs arise when differential pricing is demand based uniform pricing has good ex post welfare properties but leads to lower investment ex ante conversely when differential pricing is cost based uniform pricing has bad ex post welfare properties but leads to higher investment ex ante

parallel imports demand dispersion and international price discrimination parallel imports goods imported by unauthorized resellers are advocated worldwide for undermining international price discrimination for a continuum of markets we find that uniform pricing by a monopolist yields lower global welfare than third degree discrimination if demand dispersion across markets is large though uniform pricing avoids output misallocation too many markets go unserved mixed systems permitting discrimination across but not within designated groups of markets yield significantly higher welfare than uniform pricing or unrestricted multimarket discrimination and can pareto dominate uniform pricing thus while parallel imports might benefit some countries our results weaken the multilateral case for allowing them

inflation real returns and capital investment we find evidence for the hypothesis of mundell 1963 and tobin 1965 that the expected real return component of interest rates is negatively related to the expected inflation component in the mundell tobin model the variation in expected real returns is caused by the variation in expected inflation our evidence suggests however that the variation in expected real returns is more fundamentally an outcome of the capital expenditures process equilibrium expected real returns vary directly with capital expenditures in order to induce equilibrium allocations of resources between consumption and investment this positive relation between expected real returns and real activity which comes out of the real sector combines with a negative relation between expected inflation and real activity which is traced to the monetary sector thus inducing the negative relation between expected inflation and expected real returns predicted by mundell and tobin but explained in terms of a model much different from theirs

the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in the uk 1885 1998 abstract using a long series of uk inflation data i have provided strong evidence in favour of the hypothesis that inflationary periods are associated with high inflation uncertainty this result supports the friedman ball hypothesis and has important implications for the inflation output relationship provided that more inflation uncertainty leads to lower output

unobserved component time series models with markov switching heteroscedasticity changes in regime and the link between inflation rates and inflation uncertainty in this article i first extend the standard unobserved component time series model to include hamilton s markov switching heteroscedasticity this will provide an alternative to the unobserved component model with autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity as developed by harvey ruiz and sentana and by evans and wachtel i then apply a generalized version of the model to investigate the link between inflation and its uncertainty u s data gross national product deflator 1958 1 1990 4 i assume that inflation consists of a stochastic trend random walk component and a stationary autoregressive component following ball and cecchetti and a four state model of u s inflation rate is specified by incorporating regime shifts in both mean and variance structures i analyze the interaction of mean and variance over long and short horizons the empirical results show that inflation is costly because higher inflation is associated with higher long run uncertainty

the impact of parallel imports on investments in cost reducing research and development abstract we develop a two country model of endogenous investment in process innovation by a manufacturer facing competition from parallel imports pi we find that the distortions associated with pi inhibit innovation however the difference between the manufacturer s expected profits under successful and failed innovation is u shaped in the cost of engaging in pi thus the reduction in r d investment depends on both legality of pi and transport costs the reduction in innovation could harm global welfare depending on whether the manufacturer was deterring pi with a high wholesale price if so banning such trade would raise expected welfare

long memory in us disaggregated petroleum consumption evidence from univariate and multivariate lm tests for fractional integration previous studies that have tested for a unit root in aggregate energy consumption have potentially reached misleading conclusions because they fail to allow for the possibility that energy consumption might be fractionally integrated and do not distinguish between different types of energy consumption this study tests for long memory in disaggregated petroleum consumption in the united states using univariate and multivariate lagrange multiplier lm tests for fractional integration the results point strongly to the need to distinguish between different forms of energy consumption and allow for a generalization of the i 0 i 1 dichotomy when considering the order of integration of energy consumption allowing for short run dynamics the univariate test suggests that less than 50 of the series are fractionally integrated consistent with expectations the non stationary series are found to have the highest mean and standard deviation the multivariate test suggests that petroleum consumption in the commercial and industrial sectors is clearly fractionally integrated when allowing for short run dynamics and as such exhibits persistent effects while petroleum consumption in the residential sector is a stationary process

parallel imports and repair services abstract this study explores the welfare effects of parallel imports when the producer may refuse to provide repair services for parallel imported units which reduces the degree of price convergence between countries if the probability of the product s breakdown is endogenously determined by the producer permitting parallel imports could increase the probability because a higher probability leads to a larger price gap as a result it is possible that prices increase and welfare deteriorates in both countries this negative welfare effect is more likely to emerge as the liberalization of trade in goods proceeds the prohibition of service discrimination recovers the positive welfare effect

real exchange rates under the gold standard purchasing power parity is one of the most important equilibrium conditions in international macroeconomics empirically it is also one of the most hotly contested numerous recent studies for example have sought to determine the validity of purchasing power parity using data from the post bretton woods float and have reached different conclusions we assert that most such studies are flawed for two reasons first the post 1973 data contain by definition only a very limited amount of the low frequency information relevant for examination of long run parity second the dynamic econometric techniques used to model deviations from parity are typically quite crude with respect to admissible low frequency dynamics both deficiencies are rectified in the present paper with dramatic results we construct a new data set of 16 real exchange rates covering more than a century of the classic gold standard period and we study deviations from parity using long memory models that allow for subtle forms of mean

commodity taxation and parallel imports we examine the interaction between commodity taxes and parallel imports in a two country model with imperfect competition while governments determine non cooperatively their commodity tax rate the volume of parallel imports is determined endogenously by the retailing sector we compare the positive and normative implications of having commodity taxes based on destination or origin principle we show that as the volume of parallel imports increases non cooperative origin taxes converge while destination taxes diverge moreover origin taxes are more similar and lead to higher aggregate welfare levels than destination taxes

the competitive role of credit unions in small local financial services markets although there is a considerable literature on the role of market structure in banking markets no attention has been given to the impact of the competitive discipline provided by credit unions on consumer credit rates offered by banks after presenting a theoretical framework for understanding the impact credit unions should be expected to have this article analyzes a pooled cross sectional time series sample with roughly 1 000 observations on relatively small united states markets with the focus on explaining bank rates for two types of consumer loans results confirm the previously observed role of market structure and suggest a significant role for credit unions in disciplining the exercise of market power by banks

is there a unit root in the inflation rate evidence from sequential break and panel data models summary using sequential trend break and panel data models we investigate the unit root hypothesis for the inflation rates of thirteen oecd countries with individual country tests we find evidence of stationarity in only four of the thirteen countries the results are more striking with the panel data model we can strongly reject the unit root hypothesis both for a panel of all thirteen countries and for a number of smaller panels consisting of as few as three countries the non rejection of the unit root hypothesis for inflation is very fragile to even a small amount of cross section variation 1997 john wiley sons ltd

the effects of real and nominal uncertainty on inflation and output growth some garch m evidence in this paper we use garch m methods to test four hypotheses about the effects of real and nominal uncertainty on average inflation and output growth in the united states from 1948 to 1996 we find no evidence that higher inflation uncertainty or higher output growth uncertainty raises the average inflation rate we also find no support for the idea that more risky output growth is associated with a higher average real growth rate our key result is that in a variety of models and sample periods inflation uncertainty significantly lowers real output growth copyright 2000 john wiley sons ltd

estimates of the variance of u s inflation based upon the arch model it is generally agreed that the unpredictability of future inflation is a major component of the welfare loss associated with inflation perfectly predicted inflation might induce some costs through institutional rigidities governmental interference and transaction costs but in the long run these should be rather minimal as these institutions adopt various forms of indexing when inflation is unpredictable risk averse economic agents will incur a loss even if prices and quantities are perfectly flexible in all markets inflation is a measure of the relative price of goods today and goods tomorrow thus uncertainty in tomorrow s price impairs the efficiency of today s allocation decisions friedman in his nobel lecture 8 argues convincingly that higher variability of inflation would lead to decreased output ceteris paribus he then conjectures that higher rates of inflation are generally associated with higher variability of inflation and presumably greater uncertainty about future rates if this is true then higher rates of inflation would also be associated with low levels of output which implies a positively sloped phillips curve this paper uses a new statistical technique arch to estimate the conditional mean and variance of inflation from u s time series data the main finding is that the variance of inflation in the seventies was only slightly greater than in the sixties

a frontier measure of u s banking competition the three main measures of competition hhi lerner index and h statistic are uncorrelated for u s banks we investigate why this occurs propose a frontier measure of competition and apply it to five major bank service lines fee based banking services comprise 35 percent of bank revenues so assessing competition by service line is preferred to using a single measure for traditional activities extended to the entire bank as the lerner index and the h statistic together explain only 1 percent of hhi variation and the hhi is similarly unrelated to the frontier method developed here current merger acquisition guidelines should be adjusted as banking concentration seems unrelated to likely more accurate competition measures

parallel trade international exhaustion and intellectual property rights a welfare analysis this paper analyses the issue of parallel trade arbitrage for products protected by intellectual property rights many countries have traditionally allowed owners of intellectual property rights to prohibit arbitrage in the face of international price discrimination in a well known paper malueg and schwartz 1994 showed that this policy decreases social welfare when the same markets are served in both regimes with and without arbitrage their model considered only the setting of prices and not investment in product development we consider a two stage game where firms choose quality first and then prices since the threat of arbitrage ex post reduces the incentive to invest ex ante the net benefits of parallel trade may vanish we also show that the size of the welfare effects is significantly affected by the presence of a generic product which represents a form of competition for the monopolist the monopolist will introduce a fighting brand to compete with the generic which dilutes but does not eliminate the result on the adverse effects of parallel trade on investments

on the persistence and volatility in european american and asian stocks bull and bear markets abstract in this paper we examine the statistical properties of several stock market indices in europe the us and asia by means of determining the degree of dependence in both the level and the volatility of the processes in the latter case we use the squared returns as a proxy for the volatility we also investigate the cyclical pattern observed in the data and in particular if the degree of dependence changes depending on whether there is a bull or a bear period we use fractional integration and garch specifications the results indicate that the indices are all nonstationary i 1 processes with the squared returns displaying a degree of long memory behaviour with respect to the bull and bear periods we do not observe a systematic pattern in terms of the degree of persistence though for some of the indices ftse dax hang seng and sti there is a higher degree of dependence in both the level and the volatility during the bull periods

international r d rivalry and industrial strategy this paper presents a theory of government intervention which provides an explanation for industrial strategy policies such as r d or export subsidies in imperfectly competitive international markets domestic net welfare is improved by the capture of a greater share of the output of rent earning industries although the subsidy ridden noncooperative international equilibrium is jointly suboptimal behaviour of governments and firms is modelled as a three stage subgame perfect nash equilibrium the assumption that the government is the first player in this game allows it to influence equilibrium outcomes by altering the set of credible actions open to firms

on inflation and inflation uncertainty in the g7 countries abstract the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty is investigated in the g7 countries from 1948 to 1993 garch models are used to generate a measure of inflation uncertainty and then granger methods are employed to test the causality between average inflation and inflation uncertainty in all g7 countries inflation significantly raises inflation uncertainty as predicted by friedman and ball weaker evidence is found that inflation uncertainty granger causes inflation in three countries us uk and germany increased inflation uncertainty lowers inflation while in two countries japan and france increased inflation uncertainty raises inflation

parallel trade product quality and welfare we study the welfare effects of parallel trade pt considering investment in quality we thus revisit the case for pt in research intensive industries we find that pt may raise quality depending on how preferences for quality differ across countries conditional on quality consumer surplus may rise fall in the pt source pt recipient country while pt reduces ex post welfare improving quality is a necessary condition for pt to increase welfare ex ante

short term interest rates as predictors of inflation on testing the hypothesis that the real rate of interest is constant in an innovative and provocative paper in this review eugene fama presents evidence which appears to be consistent with the joint hypothesis that the real rate of interest ignoring taxes is a constant and that the market for u s treasury bills is efficient in the sense of embodying rational expectations those findings are strikingly at variance with a long list of previous studies which seemed to support the view that the real rate of interest varies over time and can be related to economic variables such as real output monetary policy and so forth 2 the methodologies which lead to these contradictory conclusions are quite different previous studies had followed the lead of irving fisher by relating nominal interest rates to distributed lags on past rates of inflation 3 these distributed lags are generally interpreted as approximations to the market s expected rate of inflation and thus any remaining variation is attributed to variation in the real rate 4 fama s methodology on the other hand draws on the fact that the difference between the market interest rate and the subsequently observed rate of inflation the ex post real interest rate consists by definition of the ex ante real interest rate plus a pure forecasting error 5 the hypothesis of market efficiency implies that these forecasting errors must be serially random thus observing ex post real rates is equivalent to observing ex ante real rates with random measurement error these errors of course confound the problem of identifying variation in the ex ante real rate in this paper we will argue that the relative magnitude of these measurement errors is such that the tests carried out by fama were not powerful enough to reject the joint hypothesis that the ex ante real rate is a constant and expectations are rational more powerful tests which are presented in this paper using the same data do lead to rejection of that hypothesis of course rejection

modelling multi period inflation uncertainty using a panel of density forecasts this paper examines the determinants of inflation forecast uncertainty using a panel of density forecasts from the survey of professional forecasters spf based on a dynamic heterogeneous panel data model we find that the persistence in forecast uncertainty is much less than what the aggregate time series data would suggest in addition the strong link between past forecast errors and current forecast uncertainty as often noted in the arch literature is largely lost in a multi period context with varying forecast horizons we propose a novel way of estimating news and its variance using the kullback leibler information and show that the latter is an important determinant of forecast uncertainty our evidence suggests a strong relationship of forecast uncertainty with level of inflation but not with forecaster discord or with the volatility of a number of other macroeconomic indicators copyright 2006 john wiley sons ltd