shaky roads and trembling exports assessing the trade effects of domestic infrastructure using a natural experiment abstract our knowledge of the trade effects of domestic infrastructure is very limited the reason is twofold first data needed to examine these effects are not readily available second identifying such effects requires properly addressing potential endogeneity problems affecting the relationship between internal infrastructure and trade in this paper we overcome these limitations by combining firm level export data with detailed geo referenced information on chile and by exploiting the earthquake that took place in this country in 2010 as an exogenous source of variation in available infrastructure and thereby in transport costs we find that diminished transportation infrastructure had a significant negative impact on firms exports

the district effect and the competitiveness of manufacturing companies in local productive systems the present study evaluates the existence of differences in competitiveness of spanish industrial firms as a consequence of the district effect a quantitative analysis has been performed in order to assess external competitiveness taking into account whether firms are located in industrial districts in the sense proposed by marshall becattini or remain isolated the methodological approach considers geographical and sectoral variables it attempts to establish the existence of a relationship between sectoral specialisation and business efficiency measured as the capacity to export in local productive systems most of the variables come from a 1991 fiscal data set and the territorial units of analysis are 332 municipalities with a population of over 15 000 inhabitants from the results on the econometric model it can be inferred that the geographical concentration of companies in the same activity positively influences their level of competitiveness

domestic trade and transportation costs as barriers to international trade available evidence indicates that costs of nontraded services in domestic transportation wholesaling and retailing domestic margins are higher if a good is shipped in international trade than if it is shipped from domestic producers to domestic consumers consequently domestic margins appear to act as natural barriers to trade in the same manner as international transp ort costs do this paper presents estimates of the barriers that the domestic margins impose against u s imports and shows that they exc eed the barriers imposed by tariffs and international transport costs combined

the household response to persistent natural disasters evidence from bangladesh we examine the short run economic impacts of recurrent flooding on bangladeshi households surveyed in 2000 2005 and 2010 in 2010 household income and expenditure survey hies households answered a set of questions on whether they were affected by flood and its likely impacts we identify two treatment affected groups by using the self reported data and historical rainfall data based flood risk index we estimate a difference indifference did model to quantify the impacts on income expenditure asset and labour market outcomes and further extend our analysis to different income and expenditure brackets overall we find robust evidence of negative impacts on agricultural income and expenditure intriguingly the extreme poor i e the bottom 15th quintile experience significant positive impacts on agricultural income in the self reported treatment case

the impact of natural disaster on energy consumption international evidence abstract this research shows that natural disasters may hurt energy consumption by using data on 123 countries over the period 1990 2015 and classifying them according to their economic development level and region based on world development indicators we employ a two step system gmm method to examine the effect of natural disasters on energy consumption presenting findings that support our hypotheses in the models and show a strong negative effect for low income countries or those in the africa region after considering an alternative proxy for natural disaster we implement quantile regression methods their results find that natural disasters exhibit a negative and significant impact on oil renewable and nuclear energy consumptions the quantile regression models used in the robustness check present that the effects are stronger for low level energy consumption economies

declining nutrient intake in a growing china does household heterogeneity matter summary this paper uses chinese household data for 1989 2009 to explain why mean nutrient intake has declined despite economic growth we focus on household heterogeneity in nutrient intake response to increases in household income allowing for its endogeneity a quantile instrumental variable fixed effects panel estimation shows that rising income tends to reduce inequality in macronutrient intake in both urban and rural areas in 2004 09 this is driven by increases in nutrient intake for the urban nutrient poor and falls in nutrient intake for the rural nutrient non poor on the other hand fluctuations in prices of meat eggs and oil increase nutrition poverty

natural disasters and human capital accumulation the empirical literature on the relationship between natural disaster risk and investment in education is inconclusive model averaging methods in a framework of cross country and panel regressions show an extremely robust negative partial correlation between secondary school enrollment and natural disaster risk this result is driven exclusively by geologic disasters exposure to natural disaster risk is a robust determinant of differences in secondary school enrollment between countries but not necessarily within countries natural disasters human capital education school enrollment bayesian model averaging

imports as competitive discipline the role of the productivity gap abstract this paper addresses the impact of foreign competition on the competitive advantage of domestic firms and the role of trade policy in an endogenous growth framework it shows that the impact of foreign competition on r d and productivity depends on the industry s relative position trade liberalization promotes innovation and enhances welfare in mature industries but hinders growth and leads to market exit in infant industries with a large productivity gap in the latter case temporary protection promotes the survival of the firm and increases welfare at the margin hence we integrate the old argument for the temporary protection of infant industries with the notion that foreign competition fosters innovation and productivity

remittances and household consumption instability in developing countries this paper analyzes the impact of remittances on household consumption instability in a large panel of developing countries there are four main results first remittances significantly reduce household consumption instability second remittances play an insurance role by dampening the effects of various sources of consumption instability in developing countries natural disasters agricultural shocks discretionary fiscal policy systemic financial and banking crises and exchange rate instability third the stabilizing role played by remittances is stronger in less financially developed countries fourth the overall stabilizing effect of remittances is mitigated when remittances exceed 6 of gdp

decomposing the macroeconomic effects of natural disasters a national income accounting perspective abstract there is an unresolved debate as to whether natural disasters present true obstacles to a country s economic growth and development given that the empirical evidence is rather heterogeneous in this paper we explore whether aggregate analyses are likely to mask different responses of the components export and import government consumption investment and private consumption of gross domestic product gdp to this end we assembled a panel data set of hurricane strikes and national income accounting data for 21 caribbean countries for the period 1970 2011 we used a panel vector autoregressive varx model to take account of the direct impact of the storm shocks and any feedback mechanisms our results suggest that the responses on each gdp component differ widely where we find some effects on export import public consumption investment and private consumption however the differences in timing and directions of these impacts demonstrate why it may be difficult to find any clear and large net aggregate impact of hurricanes and natural disasters in general on gdp

integrating behavioral choice into epidemiological models of aids increased hiv risk creates incentives for people with low sexual activity to reduce their activity but may make high activity people fatalistic leading them to reduce their activity only slightly or actually increase it if high activity people reduce their activity by a smaller proportion than low activity people the composition of the pool of available partners will worsen creating positive feedbacks and possibly multiple steady states early public health efforts may allow societies to reach more favorable steady states excerpt

living like there s no tomorrow the psychological effects of an earthquake on savings and spending behavior abstract natural disasters impact economies not only through physical damages but also by affecting survivors emotionally and psychologically this can alter their economic behavior in ways that remain poorly understood we present a model of post disaster savings that reveals two opposing tendencies the need to self insure through increased savings and the drive to enjoy life while it lasts through increased spending we use panel datasets from china s sichuan province and isolate psychological impacts by focusing on those who lived in quake areas but did not themselves suffer damages or injuries although they did not bear economic losses they saved less spent more on alcohol and played majiang a chinese game more often suggesting that the no tomorrow tendency dominated over the precautionary tendency the magnitude of the savings rate impact a drop of 0 17 percentage points for each percent of distance closer to the epicenter is economically significant and persists in the medium term

inflation targeting as a shock absorber abstract we study the characteristics of inflation targeting as a shock absorber using quarterly data for a large panel of countries to overcome an endogeneity problem between monetary regimes and the likelihood of crises we propose to study large natural disasters we find that inflation targeting improves macroeconomic performance following such exogenous shocks it lowers inflation raises output growth and reduces inflation variability compared to alternative monetary regimes this performance is mostly due to a different response of monetary policy and fiscal policy under inflation targeting finally we show that only hard but not soft targeting reaps the rewards deeds not words matter for successful monetary stabilization

do natural disasters affect the poor disproportionately price change and welfare impact in the aftermath of typhoon milenyo in the rural philippines summary this paper illustrates the sharp contrast in welfare impacts between the rich and the poor caused by typhoon milenyo in a philippine village we find that fish prices dropped sharply due to the damage caused to fish pens near the village leading to positive net welfare gains among the wealthy in contrast the poor do not consume much fish and thus did not gain from the sharp decline in prices finally consumption reallocation played an important role as an ex post risk coping measure albeit only among the wealthy who are relatively well protected against typhoons

deep impact geo simulations as a policy toolkit for natural disasters adverse post natural disaster outcomes in low income regions like elevated internal migration levels and low consumption levels are the result of market failures poor mechanisms for stabilizing income and missing insurance markets which force the affected population to respond and adapt to the shock they face in a spatial environment with multiple locations with independent but inter connected markets these transitions quickly become complex and highly non linear due to the feedback loops between the micro individual level decisions and the meso location wise market decisions to capture these continuously evolving micro meso interactions this paper presents a spatially explicit bottom up agent based model to analyze natural disaster like shocks to low income regions the aim of the model is to temporally and spatially track how population distributions income and consumption levels evolve in order to identify low income workers that are food insecure the model is applied to the 2005 earthquake in northern pakistan which faced catastrophic losses and high levels of displacement in a short time span and with market disruptions resulted in high levels of food insecurity the model is calibrated to pre crisis trends and shocked using distance based output and labor loss functions to replicate the earthquake impact model results show how various factors like existing income and saving levels distance from the fault line and connectivity to other locations can give insights into the spatial and temporal emergence of vulnerabilities the simulation framework presented here leaps beyond existing modeling efforts which usually deals with macro long term loss estimates and allows policy makers to come up with informed short term policies in an environment where data is non existent policy response is time dependent and resources are limited

sudden stops and the mexican wave currency crises capital flow reversals and output loss in emerging markets sudden stops are the simultaneous occurrence of a currency balance of payments crisis with a reversal in capital flows we investigate whether sudden stop crises are a unique phenomenon and whether they entail an especially large and abrupt pattern of output collapse a bmexican waveq using a panel data set over 1975 1997 and covering 24 emerging market economies we distinguish between the output effects of currency crises capital inflow reversals and sudden stop crises sudden stop crises have a large negative but short lived impact on output growth over and above that found with currency crises a currency crisis typically reduces output by about 2 3 while a sudden stop reduces output by an additional 6 8 in the year of the crisis the cumulative output loss of a sudden stop is even larger around 13 15 over a 3 year period our model estimates correspond closely to the output dynamics of the dmexican wavet such as seen in mexico in 1995 turkey in 1994 and elsewhere and out of sample predictions of the model explain well the sudden and seemingly unexpected collapse in output associated with the 1997 1998 asian crisis d 2005 elsevier b v all rights reserved

supply chain disruptions evidence from the great east japan earthquake this paper quanti es the spillover eect of local exogenous shocks such as earthquakes to other rms through supply chain networks combining micro data on a large scale inter rm transaction network and geographic information on rm location we examine the rm level impact of supply chain disruptions occurring in the aftermath of the great east japan earthquake in 2011 when we focus on exiting rms in aected areas as the originating rms of spillovers we nd that sales growth of linked rms outside the area exhibits negative and signi cant eects for both upstream and downstream rms furthermore the signi cantly negative eects on downstream rms are shown not only for directly linked rms but also indirectly connected rms with degrees of separation 2 3 4 and 5

the shocking origins of political transitions evidence from earthquakes do earthquakes trigger political transitions using a rich panel dataset of 160 countries observed over 1950 2007 we find that earthquake shocks measured in terms of the effect of ground motion amplitude on death toll have two contradicting effects on political change on the one hand earthquakes drive transitions into democracy due to an affective shock which we interpret to be the reaction of citizens by which they hold the incumbent government responsible for earthquake damages on the other hand earthquakes indirectly hasten transitions into a less democratic regime because they increase the income level contemporaneously possibly due to short term emergency response and recovery expenditures and thus raising the opportunity cost of contesting the incumbent government overall we show that while not leading to a full fledged regime transition earthquake shocks open a new democratic window of opportunity but this window is narrowed by improved economic conditions

are external shocks responsible for the instability of output in low income countries external shocks such as commodity price fluctuations natural disasters and the role of the international economy are often blamed for the poor economic performance of low income countries the author quantifies the impact of these different external shocks using a panel vector autoregression var approach and compares their relative contributions to output volatility in low income countries vis a vis internal factors he finds that external shocks can only explain a small fraction of the output variance of a typical low income country internal factors are the main source of fluctuations from a quantitative perspective the output effect of external shocks is typically small in absolute terms but significant relative to the historic performance of these countries

sudden stops banking crises and investment collapses in emerging markets abstract we evaluate whether financial openness leaves emerging market economies vulnerable to the adverse effects of capital reversals sudden stops on domestic investment we investigate this claim in a broad sample of emerging markets during the period 1976 2002 if the banking sector does not experience a systemic crisis sudden stop events fail to have a significant impact on investment bank crises on the other hand have a significant negative effect on investment even in the absence of a contemporaneous sudden stop crisis we also find that openness to capital flows worsens the adverse impact of banking crises on investment our results provide statistical support for the policy view that a strong banking sector which can withstand the negative fallout of capital flight is essential for countries that open their economies to international financial flows

climate change green growth and aid allocation to poor countries with serious impacts of climate change looming in a few decades but current poverty still high in the developing world we ask how to spend development aid earmarked for the poor poverty reduction tends to be strongly linked to economic growth but growth impacts the environment and increases co2 emissions so can greener growth that is more climate resilient and less environmentally damaging deliver large scale poverty reduction can aid be used for effective poverty reduction now without affecting carbon emissions substantially we argue that there are bound to be trade offs between emissions reductions and a greener growth on the one hand and growth that is most effective in poverty reduction we argue that development aid earmarked for the poorest countries should only selectively pay attention to climate change and remain focused on fighting current poverty reduction including via economic growth not least as future resilience of these countries and their population will depend on their ability to create wealth and build up human capital now the only use for development aid within the poorest countries for explicit climate related investment ought to be when the investments also contribute to poverty reduction now including for increasing resilience to current impacts of environmental shocks or when the investments done now have serious intertemporal lock in problems so that they have implications also for when climate change bites by 2050 in our conclusions we offer a series of concrete principles to judge development spending

urban growth and transportation we estimate the effects of interstate highways on the growth of u s cities between 1983 and 2003 we find that a 10 increase in a city s initial stock of highways causes about a 1 5 increase in its employment over this 20 year period to estimate a structural model of urban growth and transportation we rely on an instrumental variables estimation that uses a 1947 plan of the interstate highway system an 1898 map of railroads and maps of the early explorations of the u s as instruments for 1983 highways we investigate the role of interstate highways in the growth of u s cities our investigation is in three parts in the first we develop a simple structural model describing the joint evolution of highways and employment in cities in the second we develop an instrumental variables strategy that allows us to identify key parameters of our structural model we are also able to provide out of sample evidence for the validity of our estimates and for the central assumptions of our model in the third we use our estimates to assess counterfactual transportation policies we find that a 10 increase in a city s stock of interstate highways causes about a 1 5 increase in its employment over 20 years and that an additional kilometre of highway allocated to a city at random is associated with a larger increase in employment or population than is a road assigned to a city by the prevailing political process our results also suggest that too many new highways were built between 1983 and 2003 these findings are important for three reasons first transportation generally and infrastruc ture in particular are large segments of the economy the median u s household devotes about 18 of its income to road transportation while all levels of government together spend another 200 billion dollars annually overall the value of capital stock associated with road transporta tion in the u s tops 5 trillion dollars united states bureau of transportation statistics 2007 2010 given the magnitude of transportation expenditures it is important that the impact of these expenditures on economic growth be carefully evaluated and not assessed on the basis of the claims of advocacy groups our analysis provides a basis for assessing whether these resources are well allocated our results also provide useful guidance to policy makers charged with planning cities since changes in a city s transportation infrastructure cause changes to the city s employment new transportation infrastructure causes complementary changes in the demand for public utilities and schools our results provide a basis for estimating the magnitude of such changes finally this research is important to furthering our understanding of how cities operate and grow transportation costs are among the most fundamental quantities in theoretical models

animal disease incidence and indemnity eradication programs abstract there are many options for controlling the spread of animal diseases some diseases have been treated as public sector problems and many nations have tried to control disease spread by purchasing sick animals from farmers government agencies have purchased breeding stock that might transmit diseases government agencies have purchased animals that might otherwise have gone to the slaughterhouse thereby keeping pathogens out of the food supply our hypothesis is that when it is not immediately obvious to farmers or private sector buyers which animals carry or transmit diseases a government indemnity program s success is not assured instead disease control depends on farmers ability to respond to the relative prices they face we examine the incentives created by prices indemnity payment levels government agencies choose the scrapie indemnity eradication program in the united states 1952 1992 provides a natural laboratory for measuring the responsiveness to government set prices we show that government set prices played a major role in determining the program s outcome the supply of infected animals was price elastic we argue that short run movements in relative prices and the number of infected animals offer a practical method for assessing program effectiveness

natural disasters in a two sector model of endogenous growth using an endogenous growth model with physical and human capital accumulation this paper considers the sustainability of economic growth when the use of a polluting input e g fossil fuels intensifies the risk of capital destruction through natural disasters we find that growth is sustainable only if the tax rate on the polluting input increases over time the long term rate of economic growth follows an inverted v shaped curve relative to the growth rate of the environmental tax and it is maximized by the least aggressive tax policy of those that asymptotically eliminate the use of polluting inputs unavailability of insurance can accelerate or decelerate the growth maximizing speed of the tax increase depending on the relative significance of the risk premium and precautionary savings effects welfare is maximized under a milder environmental tax policy especially when the pollutants accumulate gradually

how bad are twins output costs of currency and banking crises we investigate the output effects of banking and currency crises in emerging markets focusing on whether twin crises entail especially large losses recent literature emphasizes the costs of financial crises and suggests that twin crises are particularly damaging to the real economy using a panel data set for 1975 97 we find that currency banking crises are very costly reducing output by about 5 8 8 10 over a 2 4 year period the cumulative loss of both types of crises is therefore very large we do not find however additional feedbacks or interactive effects associated with twin crises further damaging the economy

labor market dynamics when unemployment is a worker discipline device efficiency wage models of the effort elicitation type have important implications for labor market dynamics these models have a wide array of discontinuous sunspot equilibria driven by extraneous variables in addition to well behaved equilibria characterized by continuous slowly adjusting patterns of employment many aspects of actual labor markets can be replicated by these models for example the longer run movements they predict in employment allow macroeconomic evidence for a large labor supply elasticity to be reconciled with panel data evidence for a small labor supply elasticity many testable but as yet untested predictions about labor market dynamics can also be generated this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

natural disasters impact factors of resilience and development a meta analysis of the macroeconomic literature abstract we systematize 64 primary studies published in 2000 2013 on the macroeconomic impact of natural disasters by providing ols and generalized ordered probit meta analyses for 1858 and 1991 regressions respectively we investigate how the reported results in the primary studies are influenced by the empirical design the estimation technique and or publication bias we analyze primary studies on disaster direct costs and indirect costs separately according to our meta analysis disasters on average have a negative impact in terms of direct costs and an insignificant impact in terms of indirect costs mst and fat pet peese estimates motivate the meta analyses showing the need for a multivariate approach to consider strong systematic research heterogeneity time based characteristics of the data and publication bias strongly impact on the results of the primary studies thus implying the need for authors to carefully consider the selection of time period and for research institutions to understand the sources of selection bias in disseminated results we argue that further research is necessary on the heterogeneity of results of indirect cost studies and suggest that future studies on the macroeconomic impact of disasters should explore more often the mitigation role of education investment and openness by including these as explanatory variables

fiscal responses after catastrophes and the enabling role of financial development natural disasters may constitute a major shock to public finances and debt sustainability because of their impact on output and the need for government response with reconstruction and relief expenses the question arises of whether governments can use financial development policy as the means to mitigate or insure against this negative fiscal impact this paper uses a panel vector autoregressive model estimated on annual data for high and middle income countries over 1975 2008 to study the role of debt market development and insurance penetration in enabling fiscal response after catastrophes the authors find that countries with higher debt market development suffer smaller real consequences from disasters but that their deficits expand further followingthe mitigating fiscal response disasters in countries with high insurance penetration also experience smaller real consequences of disasters but without the need for further deficit expansions from an ex post perspective the availability of insurance could offer the best mitigation approach against the real and fiscal consequences of disasters

the impact of natural disasters on remittances to low and middle income countries abstractin this paper we offer novel empirical evidence on the impact of natural disasters on remittance flows towards low and middle income countries we consider a panel of 98 countries over th

does the exchange rate regime matter for real shocks evidence from windstorms and earthquakes abstract does the choice of exchange rate regime affect an economy s adjustment to real shocks exploiting the unpredictability and economic exogeniety of windstorms hurricanes and typhoons and earthquakes this paper assesses the often contrasting answers found in the theoretical literature there is robust evidence that exchange rate flexibility helps an economy better adjust to real shocks and consistent with the channels emphasized in the classic literature on exchange rates and shocks differences in the behavior of the export sector help explain the different reactions between the two regimes

school decentralization helping the good get better but leaving the poor behind abstract the decentralization of public services is a major feature of institutional innovation the main argument in support of decentralization is that it brings decisions closer to the people thereby alleviating information asymmetries and improving accountability however decentralization can also degrade service provision in poor communities that lack the ability to voice and defend their preferences in this paper we analyze the average and distributional effects of school decentralization on educational quality in argentina we find that decentralization had an overall positive impact on student test scores the decentralization gains however did not reach the poor thus although bringing decisions closer to the people may help the good get better the already disadvantaged may not receive these benefits

the enso effect and asymmetries in wheat price dynamics summary climate has historically played a critical role in the development of nations primarily due to its intrinsic linkage with agricultural production and prices this study examines one such relationship between the better known and most talked about climate anomaly el nino southern oscillation enso and the international prices of wheat one of the most produced and consumed grain cereals in the world the enso price relationship moreover is assumed to be characterized by nonlinear dynamics because of the known asymmetric nature of enso cycles as well as that of wheat prices this study applies a vector smooth transition autoregressive vstar modeling framework to monthly spot prices of wheat from the united states the european union australia canada and argentina as well as the sea surface temperature anomalies from the nino3 4 region which serves as a proxy for the enso variable results show that overall wheat prices tend to increase after la nina events and decrease after el nino events the regime dependent dynamics are apparent with more amplified price responses after la nina shocks and with more persistent price responses during the la nina conditions this is consistent with the economics of storage wherein shocks related to expected supply and demand are known to have a more pronounced effect in a low inventory regime findings of this study have strong implications for development economics as they point to an additional channel of adversity due to the enso related climate shocks moreover the enso induced price fluctuations are likely to affect the dynamics of international food and cash programs during extreme episodes of this climate anomaly

economies of feedlot scale biosecurity investment and endemic livestock disease infectious livestock disease creates externalities for proximate animal production enterprises the distribution of production scale within a region should influence and be influenced by these disease externalities taking the distribution of the unit costs of stocking an animal as primitive we show that an increase in the variance of these unit costs reduces consumer surplus the effect on producer surplus total surplus and animal concentration across feedlots depends on the demand elasticity a subsidy to smaller herds can reduce social welfare and immiserize the farm sector by increasing the extent of disease while nash behavior involves excessive stocking disease effects can be such that aggregate output declines relative to first best disease externalities can induce more adoption of a cost reducing technology by larger herds so that animals become more concentrated across herds for strategic reasons excess overall adoption of the innovation may occur larger herds are also more likely to adopt biosecurity innovations explaining why larger herds may be less diseased in equilibrium

natural disasters and foreign direct investment the world s population has witnessed the concurrence of two powerful global trends an unprecedented growth in foreign direct investment fdi and an increase in natural disasters since investment decisions are based on an evaluation of expected risks and returns we consider whether fdi decisions are influenced by natural disasters we do so by considering the relation between fdi in 94 countries between 1984 and 2004 and the number of disasters striking those countries across a variety of empirical tests that control for two way fixed effects we find natural disasters to be negatively and statistically significantly associated with a country s fdi

roads to prosperity assessing the link between public capital and productivity does the positive correlation between infrastructure and productivity reflect causation if so in which direction the author finds that when growth in roads the largest component of infrastructure changes productivity growth changes disproportionately in u s industries with more vehicles that vehicle intensive industries benefit more from road building suggests that roads are productive at the margin however road investments do not appear unusually productive intuitively the interstate system was highly productive but a second one would not be road building thus explains much of the productivity slowdown through a one time unrepeatable productivity boost in the 1950s and 1960s

domestic road infrastructure and international trade evidence from turkey poor domestic transportation infrastructure in developing countries is often cited as an important impediment for accessing international markets yet evidence on how transportation infrastructure improvements affect the volume and composition of exports is scarce drawing on the large scale public investment in expressways undertaken in turkey during the 2000s this paper contributes to our understanding of how internal trade costs affect regional exports and specialization two results emerge first we estimate that this road infrastructure project accounts for 15 percent of the export increase from interior regions generating a 10 year discounted stream of additional export revenues that amount to between 9 and 14 percent of the value of the investment second while the exports of all industries within a given region increase in response to improvements in connectivity to the international gateways of the country the magnitude of this increase is larger the more time sensitive an industry is accordingly we also observe an increase in the regional employment and revenue shares of such industries our results support the hypothesis that internal trade costs can be a determinant of international specialization and comparative advantage

migration risk and liquidity constraints in el salvador abstract this article utilizes panel data from el salvador to investigate the use of transnational migration as an ex post risk management strategy i show that adverse agricultural conditions in el salvador increase both migration to the united states and remittances sent back to el salvador i show that in the absence of any agricultural shocks the probability that a household sent members to the united states would have decreased on average by 24 26 i also show that the 2001 earthquakes reduced net migration to the united states a one standard deviation increase in earthquake damage reduced the average probability of northward migration by 37 11 the evidence suggests that the effects of the earthquakes had more to do with households retaining labor at home to cope with the effects of the disaster than with the earthquakes disrupting migration financing

the macroeconomic consequences of disasters abstract natural disasters have a statistically observable adverse impact on the macro economy in the short run and costlier events lead to more pronounced slowdowns in production yet interestingly developing countries and smaller economies face much larger output declines following a disaster of similar relative magnitude than do developed countries or bigger economies a close study of the determinants of these adverse macroeconomic output costs reveals several interesting patterns countries with a higher literacy rate better institutions higher per capita income higher degree of openness to trade and higher levels of government spending are better able to withstand the initial disaster shock and prevent further spillovers into the macro economy these all suggest an increased ability to mobilize resources for reconstruction financial conditions also seem to be of importance countries with more foreign exchange reserves and higher levels of domestic credit but with less open capital accounts appear more robust and better able to endure natural disasters with less adverse spillover into domestic production

natural disasters and countries exports new insights from a new and an old database this paper is the first to uncover in details the impact of different families of disasters on exports from 1979 to 2000 storms floods earthquakes and changes in temperatures besides our paper is the first to compare in a quasi systematic way the results across the two data sets at hand the standard em dat data and geomet data a newly available data set based on geophysical and meteorological data european economic review 2013 58 18 journal of development economics 2014 111 92 we run series of regressions while accounting progressively for the characteristics of products all traded goods v s agriculture ones the characteristics of the country size level of development and the intensity of the catastrophes when pooling all countries and all types of disasters we do not find any statistical impact on exports but when focusing on each of them separately and on agricultural goods the occurrence of an earthquake appears to reduce exports of about 3 regardless of its location a windstorm shock even when it happens to be very severe has hardly any impact a flood on its side is estimated to reduce export flows of a small country by nearly 3 the effect of changes in temperatures is ambiguous all in all except for temperature related disasters the results are consistent across both data sets em dat and geomet although they appear to be slightly more in line with our expectations in the case of geomet

behavioral incentives equilibrium endemic disease and health management policy for farmed animals the article develops a dynamic capital valuation model in which farms can act with farm varying cost to increase the probability of avoiding an infectious endemic animal disease multiple endemic disease equilibria can exist and the one with the largest set of action takers is socially optimal costly capital markets are shown to be a factor in determining the extent of disease frictions such as dealing with a veterinary public health bureaucracy can enhance social welfare by encouraging precautionary biosecurity actions technical innovations can reduce social welfare and a disease indemnification scheme is also studied suggestions for empirical implementation are provided

natural disasters growth and institutions a tale of two earthquakes abstract we examine the impact of natural disasters on gdp per capita by applying the synthetic control approach and using a within country perspective our analysis encompasses two large scale earthquakes that occurred in two different italian regions in 1976 and 1980 we show that the short term effects are negligible in both regions though they become negative if we simulate the gdp that would have been observed in absence of financial aid in the long term our findings indicate a positive effect in one case and a negative effect in the other largely reflecting divergent patterns of the tfp consistent with these findings we offer further evidence suggesting that a quake and related financial aid might either increase technical efficiency via a disruptive creation mechanism or reduce it by stimulating corruption distorting the markets and deteriorating social capital finally we show that the bad outcome is more likely to occur in regions with lower pre quake institutional quality as a result our evidence suggests that unanticipated local shocks are likely to change long run growth rates exacerbating territorial disparities

quantitative restrictions market power and productivity growth abstract this paper shows that when compared to tariffs quantitative restrictions qrs have a negative effect on innovation and productivity growth first qrs lead to stagnation in the steady state in the absence of domestic competition while tariffs allow for positive steady state growth second the replacement of a qr by a tariff equivalent leads to an increase in the short run incentives to innovation

post disaster aid and development of the manufacturing sector lessons from a natural experiment in china abstract we adopt a disaggregate approach to study the link between aid and dutch disease dynamics using a natural experiment in china specifically we examine whether post disaster aid provided to a subsample of chinese counties devastated by an earthquake in 2008 affects the sectoral composition of local economies using different methods we consistently find that counties receiving more aid even nearby counties not directly damaged by the earthquake tend to suffer from a contraction of the manufacturing sector innovative features of the paper include its regional perspective its identification strategy resting on a special provision in chinese policy pairwise aid and its focus on dutch disease effects in the context of post disaster aid

natural disasters and macroeconomic performance recent empirical research has shown that output and gdp per capita in the aftermath of natural disasters are not necessarily lower than before the event in many cases both are not significantly affected and surprisingly sometimes they are found to respond positively to natural disasters here we propose a novel economic theory that explains these observations specifically we show that gdp is driven above its pre shock level when natural disasters destroy predominantly durable consumption goods cars furniture etc disasters destroying mainly productive capital in contrast are predicted to reduce gdp insignificant responses of gdp can be expected when disasters destroy both durable goods and productive capital we extend the model by a residential housing sector and show that disasters may also have an insignificant impact on gdp when they destroy residential houses and durable goods we show that disasters irrespective of whether their impact on gdp is positive negative or insignificant entail considerable losses of aggregate welfare

using weather variability to estimate the response of savings to transitory income in thailand this paper measures the extent to which farmers are able to use savings and dissavings to smooth consumption in response to unexpected shocks to income time series information on regional rainfall is used to construct estimates of transitory income due to rainfall shocks the relationship between these measures of transitory income and savings indicates that farm households save a significantly higher fraction of transitory income than nontransitory income jel d91 016 the incomes of farm households in developing countries are notorious for being both low and uncertain policies that increase the incomes of farmers may well be different

efficiency wages deferred payments and direct incentives in agriculture empirical evidence from agricultural labor markets is consistent with efficiency wage theory and inconsistent with several alternative explanations according to this theory the higher wage or deferred payment benefits that direct hire growers pay relative to that of farm labor contractors is an efficiency wage growers use this extra compensation to lower their monitoring expenses and reduce shirking by workers copyright 2002 oxford university press

can extreme rainfall trigger democratic change the role of flood induced corruption using a new dataset of extreme rainfall covering 130 countries from 1979 to 2009 this paper investigates whether and how extreme rainfall driven flooding affects democratic conditions our key finding indicates that extreme rainfall induced flooding exerts two opposing effects on democracy on one hand flooding leads to corruption in the chains of emergency relief distribution and other post disaster assistance which in turn impels the citizenry to demand more democracy on the other hand flooding induces autocratic tendencies in incumbent regimes because efficient post disaster management with no dissent chaos or plunder might require government to undertake repressive actions the net estimated effect is an improvement in democratic conditions

impact of natural disasters on income inequality in sri lanka abstract we explore the relationship between natural disasters and income inequality in sri lanka as the first study of this nature for the country the analysis uses a unique panel data set constructed for the purpose of this paper it contains district inequality measures based on household income reported in six waves of the household income and expenditure survey of sri lanka during the period between 1990 and 2013 data on disaster affected population and other economic and social indicators employing a panel fixed effects estimator we find that contemporaneous natural disasters and their immediate lags significantly and substantially decrease inequality in per adult equivalent household income as measured by the theil index findings are robust across various inequality metrics sub samples and alternative estimators such as ordinary least squares and system gmm however natural disasters do not affect household expenditure inequality either households behave as if they have a permanent income or all households reduce their expenditure proportionately irrespective of their income level in responding to natural disasters natural disasters decrease non seasonal agricultural and non agricultural income inequality but increase seasonal agricultural income inequality income of richer households is mainly derived from non agricultural sources such as manufacturing and business activities and non seasonal agricultural activities poorer households have a higher share of agricultural income

building resilience to natural disasters an application to small developing states abstract we present a dynamic small open economy model to explore the macroeconomic impact of a major natural disaster in addition to permanent damages to public and private capital the disaster causes temporary losses of productivity inefficiencies during the reconstruction process and damages to the sovereign s creditworthiness we use the model to study the debt sustainability concerns that arise from the need to fully rebuild public infrastructure over the medium term and analyze the feasibility of ex ante policies such as building adaptation infrastructure and fiscal buffers and contrast these policies with the post disaster support provided by donors investing in resilient infrastructure may prove useful in particular if it is viewed as complementary to standard infrastructure because it raises the marginal product of private capital crowding in private investment while helping withstand the impact of the natural disaster in an application to vanuatu we find that donors should provide an additional 50 of pre cyclone gdp in grants to be spent over the following 15 years to ensure public debt remains sustainable following cyclone pam helping the government build resilience on the other hand reduces the risk of debt distress and at lower cost for donors

natural disasters household welfare and resilience evidence from rural vietnam summary the study uses commune fixed effects regressions to estimate the effect of natural disasters on welfare and poverty of rural households in vietnam and subsequently examines household and community characteristics that can strengthen resilience of households to natural disasters we find that all the three disaster types considered in this study including storms floods and droughts have negative effects on household income and expenditure households in communes with higher mean expenditure and more equal expenditure distribution are more resilient to natural disasters access to micro credit internal remittances and social allowances can help households strengthen the resilience to natural disasters

infectious disease productivity and scale in open and closed animal production systems trade in feeder animals creates externalities when animal diseases can spread beyond the purchasing farm if growers choose between open and closed production systems then nash equilibrium likely involves excessive trading while first best equilibrium involves market wide adoption of either an open trade or closed farm system equilibrium may entail heterogeneous systems if so then the feeder trade should be restricted supply response to an increase in marginal costs may be positive within a farm infectious disease risk can create decreasing returns to scale when the technology is otherwise increasing returns contractual procurement and damage control technologies will likely increase scale in finishing

disentangling the consequences of direct payment schemes in agriculture on fixed costs exit decisions and output this paper goes beyond orthodox considerations of direct payment effects on agricultural output by highlighting the role of subsidies in affecting individual producers ability to cover fixed costs and in distorting the volume of aggregate production and net trade by implicitly discouraging exits the theoretical model considers both taxpayer and consumer financed decoupled direct payment schemes and compares them to a coupled production subsidy in terms of possible producer responses to direct payments the paper proposes an analytical framework of production decision making in the presence of a stochastic distribution of fixed costs across representative farms the paper shows that decoupled payments in theory can have a larger effect on output than coupled payments the model explicitly recognizes three consequences of domestic support a induce exit or entry b bias production incentives to domestic markets and c cross subsidize export in global markets an empirical model of the u s wheat sector is developed to illustrate the relative potential impacts of coupled versus decoupled payments on output through the effects on a farmer s ability to cover fixed costs and hence exit decisions

economic development and the impacts of natural disasters abstract we use disaster impact data over time to examine the degree to which the human and economic losses from natural disasters are reduced as economies develop we find that countries with higher income higher educational attainment greater openness more complete financial systems and smaller government experience fewer losses

cluster sample methods in applied econometrics inference methods that recognize the clustering of individual observations have been available for more than 25 years brent moulton 1990 caught the attention of economists when he demonstrated the serious biases that can result in estimating the effects of aggregate explanatory variables on individual specific response variables the source of the downward bias in the usual ordinary least squares ols standard errors is the presence of an unobserved state level effect in the error term more recently john pepper 2002 showed how accounting for multi level clustering can have dramatic effects on t statistics while adjusting for clustering is much more common than it was 10 years ago inference methods robust to cluster correlation are not used routinely across all relevant settings in this paper i provide an overview of applications of cluster sample methods both to cluster samples and to panel data sets

the growth aftermath of natural disasters this paper provides a description of the macroeconomic aftermath of natural disasters it traces the yearly response of gross domestic product growth both aggregated and disaggregated into its agricultural and non agricultural components to four types of natural disasters droughts floods earthquakes and storms the paper uses a methodological approach based on pooling the experiences of various countries over time it consists of vector auto regressions in the presence of endogenous variables and exogenous shocks varx applied to a panel of cross country and time series data the analysis finds heterogeneous effects on a variety of dimensions first the effects of natural disasters are stronger for better or worse on developing than on rich countries second while the impact of some natural disasters can be beneficial when they are of moderate intensity severe disasters never have positive effects third not all natural disasters are alike in terms of the growth response they induce and perhaps surprisingly some can entail benefits regarding economic growth thus droughts have a negative effect on both agricultural and non agricultural growth in contrast floods tend to have a positive effect on economic growth in both major sectors earthquakes have a negative effect on agricultural growth but a positive one on non agricultural growth storms tend to have a negative effect on gross domestic product growth but the effect is short lived and small future research should concentrate on exploring the mechanisms behind these heterogeneous impacts

natural disasters and the effect of trade on income a new panel iv approach natural disasters affect bilateral trade we use this fact to generalize the instrumental variables strategy of frankel and romer 1999 to a panel setup this allows revisiting an old question does openness cause per capita gdp we work with a modified gravity framework in which we interact foreign natural disasters with geography predicting the exogenous component of bilateral trade flows and aggregating over trade partners we obtain a time varying instrument for multilateral openness of a country controlling for constant determinants of income history geography by means of fixed effects we find a robust positive effect of trade on income averaging 0 74 the estimated elasticity is substantially smaller than the one obtained in the cross section poor or non oecd countries feature a larger elasticity

strategic interactions among private and public efforts when preventing and stamping out a highly infectious animal disease upon the outbreak of a contagious animal disease a primary motive for restoring disease free status is often to regain access to international product markets efforts applied toward continuing or regaining such access generate a public good all growers benefit regardless of the extent of private effort taken while exclusion is impractical private incentives to take preventive measures and stamp out effort interact in complex ways there are intra farm temporal interactions and also inter farm contemporaneous interactions public effort also takes place and interacts with private effort this paper provides a succinct multi agent model to explore these interactions in social optimum and in nash equilibrium and also to explore how socially optimal and nash behavior differ comparative statics under social optimality are more straightforward than under nash equilibrium whether it is in social optimum or nash equilibrium public prevention effort complements both private prevention and private stamp out efforts however public stamp out effort substitutes for both private stamp out and private prevention efforts reasonable conditions are identified under which nash levels of private prevention and stamp out efforts are both below socially optimal levels concerning policy prescriptions secure property rights and low property transfer costs should promote prevention and eradication efforts other things being equal public prevention effort should be more effective at improving welfare than comparable public stamp out effort subsidies on private effort should favor prevention because subsidies on eradication effort may discourage prevention effort even if products from diseased animals are safe to consume and acceptable to consumers it may be optimal to destroy them

roadways input sourcing and patterns of specialization abstract we propose a model where the internal transport network facilitates the sourcing of intermediate goods from geographically diffuse locations a denser internal transport network promotes thus the growth of industries that rely on a large variety of inputs the model shows that heterogeneities in internal transport infrastructures can become a key factor in shaping comparative advantage and specialization evidence based on industry level trade data grants support to the main prediction of the model countries with denser road networks export relatively more in industries that exhibit broader input bases we show that this correlation is robust to several possible confounding effects proposed by the literature such as the impact of institutions on specialization in complex goods furthermore we show that a similar correlation arises as well when the density of the local transport network is measured by the density of their internal waterways and also when road density is instrumented with measures of terrain roughness

natural disasters and labor markets abstract while it is clear that natural disasters have serious welfare consequences for affected populations less is known about how local labor markets in low income countries adjust to such large shocks combining data from the indonesia family life survey the desinventar database the u s geological survey and district level employment indicators this paper explores how a large earthquake in indonesia affected labor market outcomes in particular the evolution of wages across sectors i find that the earthquake had a positive effect on wage growth for workers who were employed in the agricultural sector at baseline i propose two mechanisms for this result a higher growth rate of the price of rice and a downward shift in the supply of workers in the agricultural sector i show that evidence mainly supports the latter labor shifted out of the agricultural sector into the construction sector raising the marginal product of labor in agriculture

self protection strategic interactions and the relative endogeneity of disease risks self protection is a key behavior that influences infectious disease risks spillovers in disease protection create different types of strategic interactions under certain conditions multiple nash equilibria may arise with the possibility of coordination failure involving excessively low self protection in which case individuals expectations of others efforts determine which outcome arises in prior studies assumed technical relations between self protection and infection probabilities drove the strategic interactions we demonstrate that strategic relations can be endogenously determined and depend on the relative endogeneity of risk rer defined here as the degree to which individuals can take control of their own risks in a strategic setting the potential for coordination failure may arise when rer is sufficiently small whereas larger levels of rer may eliminate this possibility to ensure larger levels of self protection we find that imposing a behaviorally dependent indemnity may increase rer to eliminate the possibility of coordination failure we apply our analysis to the problem of livestock disease and illustrate the theory using a numerical example of the 2001 united kingdom foot and mouth disease epidemic

recovery of a mexican cluster devaluation bonanza or collective efficiency abstract mexico as many other developing countries in latin america and elsewhere has been moving in the 1980s toward a liberalized trade regime after a long period of import substitution this paper analyzes the impact of trade liberalization on the cooperative behavior of shoe firms located in a cluster in guadalajara the empirical evidence shows that cooperation has increased it also suggests that cooperation positively influences firms performance and together with a favorable market environment contributes to the cluster s recovery the study is based on fieldwork carried out in guadalajara in 1996 qualitative information was collected through in depth interviews and quantified responses came from a questionnaire survey covering a sample of 63 shoe manufacturing enterprises

livestock disease indemnity design when moral hazard is followed by adverse selection averting or limiting the outbreak of infectious disease in domestic livestock herds is an economic and potential human health issue that involves the government and individual livestock producers producers have private information about preventive biosecurity measures they adopt on their farms prior to outbreak ex ante moral hazard and following outbreak they possess private information about whether or not their herd is infected ex post adverse selection we investigate how indemnity payments can be designed to provide incentives to producers to invest in biosecurity and report infection to the government in the presence of asymmetric information we compare the relative magnitude of the first and second best levels of biosecurity investment and indemnity payments to demonstrate the tradeoff between risk sharing and efficiency and we discuss the implications for status quo u s policy