guaranty funds and risk taking evidence from the insurance industry abstract this paper examines change in property liability insurers risk taking around enactments of state guaranty fund laws our evidence suggests that the risk of insurers asset portfolios increases following enactments but this increase in risk is significant only for stock insurers our evidence of increased risk taking following guaranty fund adoptions suggests that the way these funds are organized creates counterproductive investment incentives especially for stock companies because these laws were enacted by states over the period 1969 1981 our evidence on changes in risk taking helps resolve statistical problems that have been troublesome for studies of bank deposit insurance

first and second order effects of consumers institutional logics on firm consumer relationships a cross market comparative analysis consumers conceptions of a market s institutional logic affect mechanisms of firm consumer relationships but are generally neglected in comparative studies of international marketing this study bridges institutional and relationship marketing theories to examine two questions do consumers hold meaningful mental models of a market s institutional logics and do these mental models explain differentiated patterns of market relationships across international contexts building on contract relational duality we develop a market level construct for capturing consumers socially constructed mental models for the institutional logics of market action we theorize that differences in consumers institutional logics will influence both their evaluation of a firm s capabilities first order effect and the degree to which they reward a firm through their commitment second order effect these bridging predictions are tested using data from the insurance industry across three international markets our results show that the german insurance market is located in the relatively high contracts low relational quadrant whereas the us and dutch markets are both located in the relatively low contracts high relational quadrant our results also suggest that consumer commitment conforms to a principle of alignment such that commitment accrues to providers who align their capabilities with consumers prevalent institutional logics of the market and penalizes those who deviate from it

the microfinance promise in the past decade microfinance programs have demonstrated that it is possible to lend to low income households while maintaining high repayment rates even without requiring collateral the programs promise a revolution in approaches to alleviating poverty and spreading financial services and millions of poor households are served globally a growing body of economic theory demonstrates how new contractual forms offer a key to microfinance success particularly the use of group lending contracts with joint liability for the most part however high repayment rates have not translated into profits and studies of impacts on poverty yield a mixed picture in describing emerging tensions the paper highlights the diversity of innovative mechanisms beyond group lending contracts the measurement of financial sustainability the estimation of economic and social impacts the costs and benefits of subsidization and the potential to reduce poverty through savings programs rather than just credit the promise of microfinance has pushed far ahead of the evidence and an agenda is put forward for addressing critical empirical gaps and sharpening the terms of policy discussion

economic mobility and poverty dynamics in developing countries this study provides an introduction to this special issue of the journal of development studies on economic mobility and poverty dynamics in developing countries in addition to providing a conceptual framework it outlines how the contributions fit into the extant literature a series of regularities emerge across these studies the poor consist of those who are always poor poor at all dates and those who move in and out of poverty with the latter group tending to be strikingly large such movements in and out of poverty are apparent when looking at poverty in either absolute or relative terms changes in returns to endowments can be a potent source of increased incomes finally seemingly transitory shocks can have long term consequences the study concludes by drawing out the policy implications of these regularities

credit market constraints consumption smoothing and the accumulation of durable production assets in low income countries investments in bullocks in india in this paper we formulate and estimate a finite horizon structural dynamic model of agricultural investment behavior that incorporates the major features of low income agricultural environments income uncertainty constraints on borrowing and rental markets and the use of investment assets to generate income and smooth consumption the model is fit to longitudinal indian household data on farm profits bullock stocks and pump sets the estimated structural parameters are used to assess the effects on the life cycle accumulation of bullocks agricultural profits and welfare associated with complete markets and bullock liquidity and with second best policies that provide assured sources of income to farmers and weather insurance

why are informal loans still a big deal evidence from north east thailand abstractthis article examines the use and benefit of informal loans for different income groups of rural households in north east thailand using a difference in differences estimation approach which is later complemented by propensity score matching the article shows that different household groups profit from informal loans in different ways poor households increase their asset endowment and in particular farming assets whereas rich households food consumption rises especially if households borrow due to a shock by showing that informal loans serve different households for different purposes this article provides an explanation why they still play an important role

the impact of group lending in northeast thailand abstract much of the literature on group lending focuses on its high repayment rates rather than its goal of promoting borrower welfare most studies that attempt to measure the impact of group lending neglect the issues of self selection and endogenous program placement thus leading to biased estimates of impact one reason for this neglect is the lack of data that would allow for identification of impact this paper surmounts these problems by using data from a quasi experiment conducted in northeast thailand in 1995 1996 program participants were identified in six control villages 1 year prior to receiving loans surveys were then conducted of these control members treatment members in eight older program villages and nonmembers in both types of village this survey design allows for straightforward estimation of impact the results indicate that program loans are having little impact although naive estimates of impact that fail to account for self selection and endogenous program placement significantly overestimate impact

microfinance and poverty evidence using panel data from bangladesh micro finance supports mainly informal activities that often have low market demand it may be thus hypothesized that the aggregate poverty impact of micro finance in an economy with low economic growth is modest or nonexistent the observed borrower level poverty impact is then a result of income redistribution or short run income generation the author addresses these questions using household level panel data from bangladesh the findings confirm that micro finance benefits the poorest and has sustained impact in reducing poverty among program participants it also has positive spillover impact reducing poverty at the village level but the effect is more pronounced in reducing extreme rather than moderate poverty

the impact of microcredit on the poor in bangladesh revisiting the evidence abstractwe replicate and reanalyse the most influential study of microcredit impacts m m pitt s r khandker s the impact of group based credit on poor households in bangladesh does the gender of participants matter published in the journal of political economy 106 1998 that study was celebrated for showing that microcredit reduces poverty a much hoped for possibility though one not confirmed by recent randomised controlled trials we show that the original results on poverty reduction disappear after dropping outliers or when using a robust linear estimator using a new program for estimation of mixed process maximum likelihood models we show how assumptions critical for the original analysis such as error normality are contradicted by the data we conclude that questions about impact cannot be answered in these data

instruments randomization and learning about development there is currently much debate about the effectiveness of foreign aid and about what kind of projects can engender economic development there is skepticism about the ability of econometric analysis to resolve these issues or of development agencies to learn from their own experience in response there is increasing use in development economics of randomized controlled trials rcts to accumulate credible knowledge of what works without overreliance on questionable theory or statistical methods when rcts are not possible the proponents of these methods advocate quasirandomization through instrumental variable iv techniques or natural experiments i argue that many of these applications are unlikely to recover quantities that are useful for policy or understanding two key issues are the misunderstanding of exogeneity and the handling of heterogeneity i illustrate from the literature on aid and growth actual randomization faces similar problems as does quasi randomization notwithstanding rhetoric to the contrary i argue that experiments have no special ability to produce more credible knowledge than other methods and that actual experiments are frequently subject to practical problems that undermine any claims to statistical or epistemic superiority i illustrate using prominent experiments in development and elsewhere as with iv methods rct based evaluation of projects without guidance from an understanding of underlying mechanisms is unlikely to lead to scientific progress in the understanding of economic development i welcome recent trends in development experimentation away from the evaluation of projects and toward the evaluation of theoretical mechanisms jel c21 f35 o19

testing theories of consumption behavior using information on aggregate shocks income seasonality and rainfall in rural india we develop an integrated framework for testing theories of consumption behavior by examining how agricultural households in rural india respond to anticipated and unanticipated seasonal income fluctuations using information on village level rainfall surprises we estimate idiosyncratic unanticipated income shocks by allowing weather risk to impact households differently depending on observable characteristics in applying our methodology to unique panel data on consumption debt and intrahousehold gift exchanges we address a number of shortcomings in previous tests of theories of consumption behavior yet we find no evidence against the hypothesis that households smooth idiosyncratic fluctuations in their income our approach also uncovers several interesting features of rural credit and insurance markets

organizational form and risk taking in the savings and loan industry abstract i hypothesize that risk taking is greater in stock thrifts than in mutual thrifts because the residual and fixed claims are separable i find that stock thrifts exhibit greater profit variability during the 1982 1988 period and that conversions from mutual to stock ownership are associated with increased investment in risky assets and increased profit variability these findings illustrate the relation between the structure of residual claims incentives and firm performance as well as the unintended consequences resulting from changes in thrift regulations

risk and insurance in a rural credit market an empirical investigation in northern nigeria credit contracts play a direct role in pooling risk between households in northern nigeria repayments owed by borrowers depend on realizations of random shocks by both borrowers and lenders the paper develops two models of state contingent loans the first is a competitive equilibrium in perfectly enforceable contracts the second permits imperfect information and equilibrium default estimates of both models indicate that quantitatively important state contingent payments are embedded in these loan transactions but that a fully efficient risk pooling equilibrium is not achieved the research is based on a year long survey in zaria nigeria conducted by the author

microfinance its impact outreach and sustainability summary this symposium brings together recent empirical contributions with respect to a number of related and highly relevant issues on the economics of microfinance in particular the contributions provide answers to the following two main questions 1 does microfinance have an impact on the social and economic situation of the poor in developing nations and 2 are microfinance institutions sustainable in the long term and is there a trade off between sustainability and outreach

productivity health and inequality in the intrahousehold distribution of food in low income countries a model is formulated incorporating linkages among nutrition labor market productivity health heterogeneity and the intrahousehold distribution of food and work activities in a subsistence economy empirical results based on a sample of households from bangladesh indicate that despite considerable intrahousehold disparities in calorie consumption households are averse to inequality furthermore consistent with the model the results also indicate that both the higher level and greater variance in the calories consumed by men relative to women reflect in part the greater participation by men in activities in which productivity is sensitive to health status copyright 1990 by american economic association

the determinants of organizational form changes evidence and implications from real estate abstract we study changes in the real estate industry among organizational forms with varying degrees of restrictiveness and document the associated changes in profitability free cash flow debt dividends and investment policies all troubled firms in our sample move to a more flexible organizational structure with subsequent reductions in dividends improvements in performance and increases in asset sales and investments healthy firms that move to a tighter structure have larger free cash flows before the change they increase dividends reduce free cash flows and improve profitability after the change we document evidence of tax considerations in organizational changes

haddad lawrence john hoddinott and harold alderman eds intrahousehold resource allocation in developing countries models methods and policy baltimore md johns hopkins university press 1997 384 pp 55 00 in this volume economists demographers sociologists and anthropologists collaborate in the study of how resources are allocated within households in developing countries and why it matters from a policy perspective surveying a broad range of theory and evidence the contributors examine the many social and cultural factors that influence decisions about the family and household level about the allocation of time income assets and other resources ths contributors show that a more complete understanding of intrahousehold behaviour can increase the likelihood that policies will reach the people they are intended to affect

the economic lives of the poor in what turned out to be a rhetorical master move the 1990 world development report from the world bank defined the extremely poor people of the world as those who are currently living on no more than 1 per day per person measured at the 1985 purchasing power parity ppp exchange rate in 1993 the poverty line was updated to 1 08 per person per day at the 1993 ppp exchange rate which is the line we use in this paper poverty lines have always existed indeed 1 per day was chosen in part because of its proximity to the poverty lines used by many poor countries 1 however the 1 a day poverty line has come to dominate the conversations about poverty to a remarkable extent

verifying the solution from a nonlinear solver a case study we are pleased to confirm that any doubt our article mccullough and vinod 2003 hereafter mv03 may have cast on ron shachar and barry nalebuff 1999 hereafter sn99 must be removed we are especially pleased because we thought it quite unfair that other researchers were able to exempt themselves from such detailed scrutiny it appears that such researchers no longer will have the luxury of reneging on their agreement to honor the replication policy as this journal now requires authors of accepted empirical papers to provide all programs and data files for posting on the aer web site as a precondition of publication the primary aim of our article mv03 was to provide a four part methodology for verifying the solution from a nonlinear solver check the gradient examine the trace analyze the hessian and profile the likelihood we adduced copious evidence mv03 p 873 that solvers used by economists can produce inaccurate answers gave examples of different packages giving different answers to the same nonlinear problems mv03 p 874 and showed mv03 pp 873 74 at least in this journal that researchers make no effort to verify the solutions from the solvers that they use we believe this uncritical acceptance of solutions from nonlinear solvers to be a systemic problem in economic research that is why we wrote the article certainly econometrics texts do not show how to verify the solution from a nonlinear solver in passing we also showed how a problem can be too large for conventional pc methods and indicated the failure of replication policies in this journal and other journals we used the data and likelihood function from sn99 to illustrate the methodology in the course of this illustration we noted that the hessian was ill conditioned suggested that there might exist multiple optima and that inference based on the wald statistic was not appropriate we concluded that the solution we found was at best a tentative solution however as shown in shachar and nalebuff 2004 hereafter sn04 when the problem is rescaled the hessian is not ill conditioned they have correctly identified the difference between the condition number of the badly scaled version of the problem that we analyzed in mv03 and the well scaled problem that they have analyzed when the problem is correctly scaled the hessian is well conditioned the model is locally identifiable the problem can be solved on a pc a solution to the problem exists and sn present it in their table 1 though we were aware that rescaling could ameliorate ill conditioning mv03 p 882 we were unaware of the distinction between artificial ill conditioning and inherent ill conditioning so the method we suggested for analyzing the hessian contained an error of omission this error caused us to reach an incorrect conclusion concerning the existence of a solution to the problem we apologize to professors shachar and nalebuff and we thank them for their gracious understanding in this regard accordingly we have amended our prescription for analyzing the hessian see our nearby exchange with david m drukker and vince wiggins 2004 hereafter dw for complete details our

the role of insider influence in mutual to stock conversions using a sample of 347 demutualizing thrifts from 1991 to 2004 we show that the level of inside participation is not a traditional signal of firm performance we conclude that unanticipated inside participation reflects the incentives of insiders to reduce the size of the offer to influence the level of expected initial public offer ipo returns we find unanticipated inside participation is related to lower offer size and higher initial returns but we do not find a relationship between inside participation and post ipo performance

high noon for microfinance impact evaluations re investigating the evidence from bangladesh recently microfinance has come under increasing criticism raising questions of the validity of iconic studies which have justified it such as pitt and khandker chemin applied propensity score matching to the pitt and khandker data finding different impacts but does not disaggregate by gender of borrower we first replicate chemin and extend his analysis in two ways we test the robustness of propensity score matching results to selection on unobservables using sensitivity analysis and we investigate propensity score matching estimates of impacts by gender of borrowers the mainly insignificant impacts of microfinance differ greatly by gender of borrower but are all vulnerable to selection on unobservables we are therefore not convinced that the relationships between microfinance and outcomes are causal with these data

micro entrepreneurship and subjective well being evidence from rural bangladesh abstract microcredit has long been hailed as a powerful tool to promote livelihoods and reduce poverty through entrepreneurship however its impacts on people s subjective well being remain underexplored we present a unified theoretical framework for analyzing the effect of microcredit enabled entrepreneurship on overall life satisfaction a key manifestation of subjective well being empirically we apply an instrumental variable approach to a unique census like household survey conducted in three villages of bangladesh in 2013 in spite of having no direct effects we find that microcredit borrowing has an indirect negative effect on overall life satisfaction through increased worry on a positive note we find that female micro borrowers experience an increase in satisfaction with financial security and achievement in life we also provide evidence that micro borrowers with higher levels of assets experience an increase in satisfaction with financial security

bank insured rosca for microfinance experimental evidence in poor egyptian villages abstract microfinance institutions mfis have continued to grow over the past few decades both in numbers of clients and portfolio sizes the growth of these mfis has enabled greater access to credit in many of the world s less developed nations however recent studies have shown that very many of the poor especially muslims remain unbanked confounding this problem in many muslim countries is the poor s propensity to reject microfinance when available on religious grounds in this paper we develop an alternative microfinance model which aims to establish credit unions for the poor in which the bank plays the role of a guarantor in the familiar rotating savings and credit association rosca we test the performance of this model against a stylized sequential grameen style microcredit provision in a laboratory experiment in the field conducted in poor egyptian villages our model of bank insured roscas is shown to solve coordination failure problems that may otherwise prevent the spontaneous development of informal roscas in practice empirically our bank insured rosca model generated significantly higher takeup and repayment rates than the grameen model this suggests that this model by overcoming the religious barriers to credit can be a useful alternative to grameen style microfinance

asset smoothing consumption smoothing and the reproduction of inequality under risk and subsistence constraints abstract a growing literature asks whether low wealth agents can accumulate assets over time or whether they are trapped in poverty this paper develops a stochastic dynamic programming model with endogenous asset price risk to explore savings and portfolio decisions in a resource poor environment characterized by risk and subsistence constraints optimal portfolio strategies are found to bifurcate despite divisible assets and fully rational agents wealthier agents acquire a higher yielding portfolio and pursue conventional consumption smoothing poorer agents acquire a less remunerative portfolio and pursue asset smoothing rather than consumption smoothing asset based risk coping thus results in positive correlation between initial wealth and portfolio rate of return

income smoothing and consumption smoothing one way that risk averse households protect consumption levels is to borrow and use insurance mechanisms another way common in low income economies is to diversify economic activities and make conservative production and employment choices households thus tend toward limiting exposure only to shocks that can be handled with available credit and insurance typically both types of mechanisms are studied independently but much more can be learned by studying them together first we obtain a more complete picture of risks costs and insurance possibilities second it opens the way to considering biases in standard tests of credit and insurance

health and productivity in a heterogeneous urban labour market the effects of changes in various health indicators on hourly earnings in different sectors of the labour market are examined using survey data from conakry guinea greater height which is associated with greater strength raises earnings of men both in self employment and the private wage sector where work is likely to involve physical labour height does not matter for women s earnings which likely reflects the less physically strenuous nature of most women s activities body mass index treated as an endogenous variable appears to raise earnings of men in self and private wage employment and of women in self employment no impacts are found for household per capita calorie and protein availability also treated as endogenous overall the results suggest that health matters for productivity in poor urban environments with these effects depending on gender and the sector of employment or type of work

the governance of exchanges members cooperatives versus outside ownership the paper compares co operative governance structure to outside ownership the distinction between the two lies in who has residual rights of control it is found that a co operative becomes relatively less efficient as the environment becomes more competitive and the interests of members become more skewed these ideas are applied to the governance of exchanges this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the benefits and costs of microfinance evidence from bangladesh abstract using the latest developments from the evaluation literature namely the technique of matching this paper shows a positive but lower than previously thought effect of microfinance on expenditure per capita supply of labour and level of school enrolment for boys and girls for instance participants spend 3 per cent more on average than non participants in control villages this paper also takes into account repayment delays to calculate the cost of credit provision it shows how a better investigation at the individual level of the benefits brought and the cost borne could help microfinance institutions to better select their customers jel classification c14 d10 g21 i38 o12 o16

consumption insurance an evaluation of risk bearing systems in low income economies the hypothesis of full risk sharing can be taken to data from low income countries and evaluate formal and informal financial systems in many contexts idiosyncratic risks are high so credit insurance arrangements could be beneficial statistical tests reveal that households in southern india take advantage of these possibilities villages in cote d ivoire and countries in thailand do not do as well the paper includes an empirical description of the devices used to smooth consumption and a theoretical discussion of private information and incentives on ideal operating systems the full information and mechanism design frameworks provide benchmarks for policy analysis

organizational form and efficiency the coexistence of stock and mutual property liability insurers this article introduces a new approach cross frontier analysis for estimating the relative efficiency of alternative organizational forms in an industry the technique is illustrated by analyzing a sample of stock and mutual property liability insurers using nonparametric frontier efficiency methods cross frontier analysis measures the relative efficiency of each organizational form by computing the efficiency of each stock mutual firm relative to a reference set consisting of all mutual stock firms we test agency theoretic hypotheses about organizational form including the managerial discretion and expense preference hypotheses the results indicate that stocks and mutuals are operating on separate production and cost frontiers and thus represent distinct technologies consistent with the managerial discretion hypothesis the stock technology dominates the mutual technology for producing stock outputs and the mutual technology dominates the stock technology for producing mutual outputs however consistent with the expense preference hypothesis the stock cost frontier dominates the mutual cost frontier our findings thus suggest a richer interpretation of organizational form than provided by previous researchers

the effect of organizational structure on efficiency evidence from the spanish insurance industry this paper provides new information on the effects of organizational structure on efficiency by analyzing spanish stock and mutual insurers over the period 1989 1997 we test the efficient structure hypothesis which predicts that the market will sort organizational forms into market segments where they have comparative advantages and the expense preference hypothesis which predicts that mutuals will be less efficient than stocks technical cost and revenue frontiers are estimated using data envelopment analysis the results indicate that stocks and mutuals are operating on separate production cost and revenue frontiers and thus represent distinct technologies in cost and revenue efficiency stocks of all sizes dominate mutuals in the production of stock output vectors and smaller mutuals dominate stocks in the production of mutual output vectors larger mutuals are neither dominated by nor dominant over stocks in the cost and revenue comparisons thus large mutuals appear to be vulnerable to competition from stock insurers in spain overall the results are consistent with the efficient structure hypothesis but are generally not consistent with the expense preference hypothesis

credit programmes for the poor and seasonality in rural bangladesh this article examines the effect of group based credit used to finance self employment by landless households in bangladesh on the seasonal pattern of household consumption and male and female labour supply this credit can help smooth seasonal consumption by financing new productive activities whose income flows and time demands do not seasonally covary with the income generated by existing agricultural activities the results based upon 1991 92 survey data strongly suggest that an important motivation for credit programme participation is the need to smooth the seasonal pattern of consumption and male labour supply it is only the extent of lean season consumption poverty that selects household into these programmes in addition the largest female and male effects of credit on household consumption are during the lean season

famine and household coping strategies abstract households faced with risks to their entitlement to food will plan strategically to minimize their impact the task of doing this will be particularly demanding during famines this paper reviews the evidence on household strategies for coping with famine in africa and identifies some distinctive patterns in these strategies which can be used to examine household objectives at times of crisis the management of resources to meet these objectives and limits to the effectiveness of coping strategies in particular it examines the role of asset management and trade offs between maintaining current food consumption levels and protecting the future income generating capacity of the household

inequality as a determinant of malnutrition and unemployment policy this paper explores the policy implications that are obtained once it is recognized that at low nutrition intakes a person s productivity is an increasing function of intake in the context of a fully general equilibrium model it is shown that if aggregate assets in an economy are neither large nor small certain patterns of lorenz improving asset redistributions or nutrition transfers increase aggregate output and reduce the volume of involuntary unemployment and the incidence of undernourishment copyright 1987 by royal economic society

re evaluating microfinance evidence from propensity score matching this paper evaluates effectiveness of microfinance using propensity score matching psm method applied to data collected in a recent randomized control trial this method allows one to answer an additional set of questions not answered by the original study and provide more nuanced evidence by comparing microfinance institution mfi borrowers to those without any loans and those with prior loans from other sources it is argued that this unique setting with two comparison groups allows us to shed light on the unobservable entrepreneurial spirit bias and provides upper and lower bounds on the true microfinance impact the results suggest that microfinance can make a modest difference for some households in several expenditure categories

the measurement of efficiency in life insurance estimates of a mixed normal gamma error model abstract this paper make three contributions to the literature on efficiency in financial services first it presents estimates of a mixed error cost frontier in which the variances of both the normal and gamma distributions can vary with firm size second it extends the literature on life insurance scale and product mix economies by incorporating and measuring x inefficiency estimates of x inefficiency range from 35 to 50 ray scale economies exist up to 15 billion in assets third comparisons of normal gamma estimates with other methods 3 thick frontier weighted least squares half normal distributions 3 demonstrate some of their pitfalls

returns to capital in microenterprises evidence from a field experiment small and informal firms account for a large share of employment in developing countries the rapid expansion of microfinance services is based on the belief that these firms have productive investment opportunities and can enjoy high returns to capital if given the opportunity however measuring the return to capital is complicated by unobserved factors such as entrepreneurial ability and demand shocks which are likely to be correlated with capital stock the authors use a randomized experiment to overcome this problem and to measure the return to capital for the average microenterprise in their sample regardless of whether they apply for credit they accomplish this by providing cash and equipment grants to small firms in sri lanka and measuring the increase in profits arising from this exogenous positive shock to capital stock after controlling for possible spillover effects the authors find the average real return to capital to be 5 7 percent a month substantially higher than the market interest rate they then examine the heterogeneity of treatment effects to explore whether missing credit markets or missing insurance markets are the most likely cause of the high returns returns are found to vary with entrepreneurial ability and with measures of other sources of cash within the household but not to vary with risk aversion or uncertainty

effects of microcredit and other loans on female empowerment in bangladesh the borrower s gender influences intra household resource allocation this article examines microcredit s effectiveness in empowering women borrowers in rural bangladesh it does so by examining how gender specific borrowing activities influence household expenditures which are either specifically of interest to men or women and by examining the effects of all loans rather than only those provided by microcredit organizations the article uses a quasi experimental design to identify the effects of borrowing by men and women by using an original combination of panel data and instrumental variables on subsamples of the surveyed population it finds that the borrower s gender affects how households allocate their resources to different expenditure items and assets that are valued differently by men and women in all the findings suggest that providing greater credit access to women may improve their household bargaining positions

organization and efficiency in the international insurance industry a cross frontier analysis abstract this paper employs cross frontier analysis an innovative tool based on data envelopment analysis to provide new insight into the relationship between organization and efficiency in international insurance markets we are the first to empirically test the expense preference hypothesis and the efficient structure hypothesis in a large cross country study for this purpose we consider 23 807 firm years for 21 countries from northern america and the european union a dataset not previously analyzed in this context we find evidence for the efficient structure hypothesis in selected market segments but we find no evidence for the expense preference hypothesis our results provide insight into the competitiveness of stock and mutual insurers from different countries at the country level the results can be used to compare different insurance markets our findings are especially interesting for the strategic management of insurance companies as well as for regulators and boards of national insurance associations

non linearities in returns to participation in grameen bank programs abstract this paper studies the benefits of participation in micro finance programs where benefits are measured in terms of the ability to smooth the effect of seasonal shocks that cause consumption fluctuations it is shown that although membership in these programs is an effective instrument in combating inter seasonal consumption differences there is a threshold level of length of participation beyond which benefits begin to diminish returns from membership are modelled using an euler equation approach fixed effects non linear least squares estimation of parameters using data from 24 villages of the grameen bank suggests that returns to participation as measured by the ability to smooth seasonal shocks begin to decline after approximately two years of membership this implies that membership alone no longer has a mitigating marginal effect on seasonal shocks to per capita consumption after four years of participation such patterns suggest that the ability to smooth consumption as a function of l

the impact of agricultural extension on farm production in resettlement areas of zimbabwe in this paper we revisit the contested issue of the impact of agricultural extension on farm production we exploit two features of the data available to us its longitudinal nature and explicit measures of farmer ability we find that after controlling for innate productivity characteristics and farmer ability either using household fixed effects estimation or by including a measure of farmer ability and village fixed effects access to agricultural extension services defined as receiving one or two visits per agricultural year raises the value of crop production by about 15 per cent this parameter estimate is statistically significant however we also find variability in these parameter estimates across individual crop years with the impact being markedly different in drought and non drought years collectively these results suggest that although access to farm level extension visits does increase productivity even after controlling for innate productivity characteristics and farmer ability results from single year cross sectional studies should be treated with caution

policies and impact an analysis of village level microfinance institutions this paper uses variation in policies and institutional characteristics to evaluate the impacts of village level microfinance institutions in rural thailand to identify impacts we use policies related to the successful unsuccessful provision of services as exogenous variation in effective financial intermediation we find that institutions particularly those with good policies can promote asset growth consumption smoothing and occupational mobility and can decrease moneylender reliance specifically cash lending institutions production credit groups and especially women s groups are successful in providing intermediation and its benefits to members while buffalo banks and rice banks are not the policies identified as important to intermediation and benefits the provision of savings services especially pledged savings accounts emergency services and training and advice surprisingly much publicized policies such as joint liability default consequences or repayment frequency had no measured impacts jel 012 016

health nutrition and economic development the relationship between health and economic development is explored focusing on nutrition based health indicators the spotlight is placed on the inter related feedbacks between the influence of health on productivity on one hand and the influence of income on health status on the other disentangling causality in these relationships has preoccupied much of the literature we evaluate different empirical strategies that have been adopted and assess the results there is now a body of evidence based on careful empirical studies that demonstrates a causal relationship between health and labor productivity there is also evidence that at least among the very poor additional income is spent on improved nutrition there are two issues that have received little attention although we argue they are likely to be very important first measurement of health is discussed in detail evidence is presented on how taking into account differences in the extent of measurement error is critical for interpreting the impact of health on wages the same theme emerges in studies of the effect of income on health specifically calorie intake the key role of non linearities in these relationships is highlighted and we demonstrate that a good deal of the variation in estimates of income elasticities of demand for calories can be ascribed to the role of measurement and functional form authors

information learning and wage rates in low income rural areas in this essay we present evidence that employers in rural areas of developing countries have imperfect information with regard to the productivity of heterogeneous workers in addition to obtaining direct measures of the completeness of employer information we consider the implications of information asymmetries for the structure of casual labor markets we then evaluate the extent to which casual labor markets do in fact exhibit these attributes we find that 1 there is adverse selection out of the time rate labor market 2 employers discriminate statistically given two workers with different observed characteristics but the same actual productivity the worker from the group with the higher average productivity will have a higher wage 3 employers exhibit learning over time the extent of employer ignorance is negatively related to labor market exposure on the part of the workers and 4 calorie consumption affects productivity but is not rewarded in the time rate labor market in concluding we argue that an analysis of wage and employment patterns and the implications of these patterns for human capital investment in rural areas of developing countries that ignored the role of information problems could yield misleading conclusions

the demise of the mutual organizational form an investigation of the life insurance industry we investigate the role of organizational structure in financial services markets by examining the u s life insurance industry traditionally stock and mutual life insurers were equally represented but now the industry is mainly composed of stock firms we find operational efficiency access to capital and tax savings are important determinants for this shift the incentive to demutualize differs by the type of conversion full demutualization is chosen for efficiency and access to capital reasons and partial conversion using a mutual holding company is chosen for tax savings firm operational efficiency improves after conversion we also find the efficiency of the stock organizational form dominates that of the mutual structure during our sample period 1995 to 2004

an economic analysis of delayed primary school enrollment in a low income country the role of early childhood nutrition this paper investigates why children in low income countries often delay primary school enrollment despite the prediction of human capital theory that schooling will begin at the earliest possible age we explore several explanations for delayed enrollment but focus on the hypothesis that delays are rational responses to early childhood malnutrition we test these alternative hypotheses using recent data from ghana our estimates which address a number of previously ignored econometric issues firmly support the hypothesis that early childhood malnutrition causes delayed enrollment we find little or no support for alternative explanations based on borrowing constraints and the rationing of places in school copyright 1995 by mit press

causal parameters and policy analysis in economics a twentieth century retrospective the major contributions of twentieth century econometrics to knowledge were the definition of causal parameters within well defined economic models in which agents are constrained by resources and markets and causes are interrelated the analysis of what is required to recover causal parameters from data the identification problem and clarification of the role of causal parameters in policy evaluation and in forecasting the effects of policies never previously experienced this paper summarizes the development of these ideas by the cowles commission the response to their work by structural econometricians and var econometricians and the response to structural and var econometrics by calibrators advocates of natural and social experiments and by nonparametric econometricians and statisticians this paper considers the definition and identification of causal parameters in economics and their role in econometric policy analysis it assesses different research programs designed to recover causal parameters from data at the beginning of this century economic theory was mainly intuitive and empirical support for it was largely anecdotal at the end of the century economics has a rich array of formal models and a high quality database empirical regularities motivate theory in many areas of economics and data are routinely used to test theory many economic theories have been developed as measurement frameworks to suggest what data should be collected and how they should be interpreted econometric theory was developed to analyze and interpret economic data most econometric theory adapts methods originally developed in statistics the major exception to this rule is the econometric analysis of the identification problem and the companion analyses of structural equations causality and economic policy evaluation although an economist did not invent the phrase correlation does not imply causation 1 economists clari

smoothing consumption by smoothing income hours of work responses to idiosyncratic agricultural shocks in rural india while research has demonstrated that farm households in developing economies are able to protect consumption from idiosyncratic crop shocks little evidence shows how this is achieved this paper examines the extent to which labor markets allow households to shift labor from farm to off farm employment and the extent to which such a shift explains the observed lack of correlation between consumption and idiosyncratic crop shocks the empirical analysis uses a novel measure of the idiosyncratic crop income shock which utilizes information on start of season cropping choices to more accurately estimate household expectations of weather

the impact of group based credit programs on poor households in bangladesh does the gender of participants matter this paper estimates the impact of participation by gender in the grameen bank and two other group based micro credit programs in bangladesh on labor supply schooling household expenditure and assets the empirical method uses a quasi experimental survey design to correct for the bias from unobserved individual and village level heterogeneity we find that program credit has a larger effect on the behavior of poor households in bangladesh when women are the program participants for example annual household consumption expenditure increases 18 taka for every 100 additional taka borrowed by women from these credit programs compared with 11 taka for men

empowering women with micro finance evidence from bangladesh abstract this article examines the effects of men s and women s participation in micro credit programs on various indicators of women s empowerment using data from a special survey carried out in rural bangladesh these credit programs are well suited to studying how gender specific resources alter intrahousehold allocations because they induce differential participation by gender through the requirement that only one adult member per household can participate in any micro credit program empowerment is formalized as an unobserved latent variable reflecting common components of qualitative responses to a large set of questions pertaining to women s autonomy and decision making power the empirical methods are attentive to various sources of endogeneity and the results are consistent with the view that women s participation in micro credit programs helps to increase women s empowerment the effects of male credit on women s empowerment were generally negative

risk taking behavior in the presence of nonconvex asset dynamics a growing literature on poverty traps emphasizes the links between multiple equilibria and risk avoidance however multiple equilibria may also foster risk taking behavior by some poor people we illustrate this idea with a simple analytical model in which people with different wealth and ability endowments make investment and risky activity choices in the presence of known nonconvex asset dynamics this model underscores a crucial distinction between familiar static concepts of risk aversion and forward looking dynamic risk responses to nonconvex asset dynamics even when unobservable preferences exhibit decreasing absolute risk aversion observed behavior may suggest that risk aversion actually increases with wealth near perceived dynamic asset thresholds although high ability individuals are not immune from poverty traps they can leverage their capital endowments more effectively than lower ability types and are therefore less likely to take seemingly excessive risks in general linkages between behavioral responses and wealth dynamics often seem to run in both directions both theoretical and empirical poverty trap research could benefit from making this two way linkage more explicit jel d81 o12 d90

shocks and their consequences across and within households in rural zimbabwe abstract increasing attention is now being paid to poverty dynamics in developing countries this work links the extent to which households smooth consumption or smooth assets given income shocks the empirical evidence on the churning of households in and out of poverty and the possibility that temporary shocks can have permanent consequences using longitudinal data from rural zimbabwe this paper extends the discussion of these issues by disaggregating the impact of shocks by levels of asset holdings by disaggregating the impact of shocks on individual level welfare and by assessing the extent to which such shocks have permanent consequences by doing so it assesses the validity of distinguishing between asset and consumption smoothing and provides insights into whether poverty dynamics assessed at the household level provide an adequate picture of dynamics at the individual level

migration selectivity and the effects of public programs abstract a model of the spatial distribution of mobile heterogeneous agents is formulated to assess how a price change or program subsidy that is location specific affects the composition of local residents via selective migration and thus biases evaluations of the effectiveness of the program based on its local consequences longitudinal data from colombia are used to test the implications of migration selectivity the findings confirm the existence of selective migration suggesting that local subsidies to human capital attract high income but within income groups low fertility households and those with low human capital endowments these migration patterns are shown to be consistent with the dominance of endowment over tastes heterogeneity in the population under plausible behavioral assumptions

stochastic wealth dynamics and risk management among a poor population we use herd history data collected among pastoralists in southern ethiopia to study stochastic wealth dynamics among a poor population although covariate rainfall shocks plainly matter household specific factors including own herd size account for most observed variability in wealth dynamics we find no support for the tragedy of the commons hypothesis past studies may have conflated costly self insurance with stocking rate externalities biophysical shocks move households between multiple dynamic wealth equilibria the lowest suggesting a poverty trap according to nonconvex path dynamics these findings have broad implications for development and relief strategies among a poor population vulnerable to climatic shocks a vast economic literature on risk management rests explicitly or implicitly on the classic friedmanite permanent income hypothesis studies of portfolio management consumption smoothing social insurance and the like all depend on the canonical assumption that stochastic income realisations are drawn from a stationary income distribution leading to consumption smoothing off a stable asset base the possibility of asset accumulation connects this literature to the immense literature on the theory and empirics of economic growth

x efficiency in the us life insurance industry abstract using six years of data 1985 1990 we estimate hybrid translog cost functions for 561 life insurers we examine the resulting residuals to determine the relative efficiency of insurers in the sample we then test the residuals to see if they are related to so called x efficiencies because of internal and external monitoring or to other factors related to rent seeking results show a large degree of persistent inefficiency seems to exist among sample firms the inefficiencies relate to some internal or external monitoring and rent seeking may be occurring

measuring microfinance assessing the conflict between practitioners and researchers with evidence from nepal summary what accounts for the discrepancy between microfinance impact claims of development practitioners and the far smaller impacts found in experimental studies we demonstrate in a simple theoretical framework why before and after observations of practitioners overstate microfinance impacts and why estimations in some recent randomized trials understate the average treatment effect on the treated att our empirical study uses a unique data set from eastern nepal to study the impact of microfinance in villages where microfinance did not previously exist we find that approximately three fourths of the apparent impact of microfinance observed by practitioners is an illusion driven by correlated unobservable factors

how does contract design affect the uptake of microcredit among the ultra poor experimental evidence from the river islands of northern bangladesh abstractthis study examines the demand of microcredit among ultra poor households in northern bangladesh we implemented a field experiment to identify what type of credit is best suited to their demand we found that the uptake rate by the ultra poor is the lowest for regular small cash credit followed by in kind credit we also found that the ultra poor are significantly more likely to join a microcredit programme than the moderately poor if a grace period with longer maturity is attached to a large amount of credit irrespective of whether the credit is provided in cash or in kind

microlending in emerging economies building a new line of inquiry from the ground up the world s poor may be the last great frontier in international business international microlenders are increasingly tapping into this emerging opportunity by extending small business loans to millions of borrowers however to date there is very limited understanding of this domain from an international business perspective using qualitative case studies developed in guatemala and the dominican republic we probe the causes and consequences of high performance and business failure for microloan recipients the analysis of these cases led to the development of six testable propositions focused on the behavior of borrowers whose loans populate the portfolios of international microlenders our research aims to lay a foundation in international business for future research on microlending

testing for expense preference behavior mutual versus stock savings and loans this article investigates expense preference behavior in the savings and loan industry previous studies used an intercept test and in general concluded that managers of mutual s ls exhibit expense preference behavior i derive the necessary and sufficient conditions on cost functions for the intercept test to be valid these restrictions are rejected for the savings and loan industry stock and mutual s ls have different cost structures and both have non cobb douglas production technologies i derive a new more general test for expense preference behavior that does not require the restrictive assumptions of the intercept test the results of this test do not support earlier conclusions of managerial expense preferences

experimental evidence on returns to capital and access to finance in mexico a strong theoretical argument for focusing on access to finance is that financial market imperfections can result in large inefficiencies as firms with productive investment opportunities underinvest lack of access to finance is a frequent complaint of microenterprises which account for a large share of employment in developing countries however assessing the extent to which a lack of capital affects their business profits is complicated by the fact that business investment is likely to be correlated with a host of unmeasured characteristics of the owner and firm such as entrepreneurial ability and demand shocks in a randomized experiment that gave cash and in kind grants to small retail firms providing an exogenous shock to capital the shock generated large increases in profits with the effects concentrated among firms that were more financially constrained the estimated return to capital was at least 20 33 percent a month three to five times higher than market interest rates

the impact of microcredit borrowing on household consumption in bangladesh the rapid expansion of microcredit in recent years renders knowledge of its impact on poverty critical unfortunately empirical investigations have been limited by endogeneity issues and randomiz

an exogeneity test for a simultaneous equation tobit model with an application to labor supply a test of weak exogeneity in the simultaneous equation tobit model is proposed and illustrated using a female labour supply model estimated using cross section data the test statistic can be simply output from any standard tobit maximum likelihood package and is asymptotically efficient the procedure provides consistent estimators for the simultaneous tobit model whose asymptotic covariance matrix is a simple extension of the usual tobit formula we also provide the lagrange multiplier test of weak exogeneity this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

regulatory incentives and the thrift crisis dividends mutual to stock conversions and financial distress during the 1980s insolvency of individual thrifts and the thrift deposit insurer created severe incentive problems lacking cash to close insolvent thrifts regulators induced nearly 10 billion of private capital to flow into the industry through mutual to stock conversions we test a theory of how regulators encouraged capitalimpaired mutual thrifts to convert by permitting them to pay dividends rather than rebuild capital we estimate the costs of this policy and interpret the 1991 federal deposit insurance corporation improvement act as requiring regulators to impose restraints on depository institutions parallel to debt covenants that prevent capital distributions by nonfinancial firms experiencing distress