models for referendum data the structure of discrete choice models for contingent valuation abstract in 1979 bishop and heberlein introduced an appealing variant of the contingent valuation method which required only yes or no responses hanemann developed a utility theoretic interpretation of the yes no responses which has helped popularize the approach recently cameron has offered another interpretation also utility theoretic which she argues is more general than the hanemann random utility model this paper compares the deterministic models suggested by hanemann and cameron showing them to be dual to each other it shows that correct specification of either function must exclude endogenous variables such as quantity demanded it also demonstrates that using utility theoretic models allows one to compare travel cost models and contigent valuation models on the basis of their implied behavior not on the unobservable surplus or variation measure

valuing morbidity from wildfire smoke exposure a comparison of revealed and stated preference techniques estimating the economic benefits of reduced health damages due to improvements in environmental quality continues to challenge economists we review welfare measures associated with reduced wildfire smoke exposure and a unique dataset from california s station fire of 2009 allows for a comparison of cost of illness coi estimates with willingness to pay wtp measures the wtp for one less symptom day is estimated to be 87 and 95 using the defensive behavior and contingent valuation methods respectively these wtp estimates are not statistically different but do differ from a 3 traditional daily coi estimate and 17 comprehensive daily coi estimate jel q51 q53

fertility social mobility and long run inequality dynastic altruistic models with endogenous fertility have been shown to be unable to generate enough intergenerational persistence using a bewley model with endogenous fertility we show that it is possible to recover persistence key ingredients for our result include exponential child discounting discrete number of children diminishing costs of child rearing and an elasticity of intergenerational substitution larger than one our model provides a unified framework of analysis for long run inequality that incorporates fertility choices

the relationship between gdp and electricity consumption in 10 asian countries the purpose of this study is to estimate the relationships between gdp and electricity consumption in 10 newly industrializing and developing asian countries using both single data sets and panel data procedures the empirical results from single data set indicate that the causality directions in the 10 asian countries are mixed while there is a uni directional short run causality running from economic growth to electricity consumption and a bi directional long run causality between electricity consumption and economic growth if the panel data procedure is implemented these empirical findings imply that electricity conservation policies through both rationalizing the electricity supply efficiency improvement to avoid the wastage of electricity and managing demand side to reduce the electricity consumption without affecting the end user benefits could be initiated without adverse effect on economic growth the findings on the long run relationship indicate that a sufficiently large supply of electricity can ensure that a higher level of economic growth

future demand scenarios of bangladesh power sector abstract data on the future electricity demand is an essential requirement for planning the expansion of a power system the purpose of this study is to provide a general overview of electricity consumption in bangladesh forecast sector wise electricity demand up to 2035 considering the base year 2005 and compare the results with official projections the long range energy alternative planning leap model with three scenarios namely low gross domestic product gdp growth average gdp growth and high gdp growth is applied in this study in the low to high gdp growth scenarios the extent of industrial restructuring and technical advancement is gradually increased the findings have significant implications with respect to energy conservation and economic development the study also compares the projected per capita electricity consumption in bangladesh with the historical growth in several other developing countries such an evaluation can create awareness among the planners of power system expansion in bangladesh to meet the high future demand

willingness to pay and the distribution of risk and wealth willingness to pay wtp most economists believe is an appropriate benefits metric for government expenditure and regulatory policies that reduce risks to human life it depends however on the distribution of risk and wealth currently society s expenditures overemphasize concentrated risks say after the fact treatment as opposed to prevention a dead anyway effect complements excess attention to intense interests in explaining this our normative criterion for spending on risk reduction is what a rational albeit uninsured individual confronting lotteries on future risks to life and wealth would choose for himself this requires correcting wtp to eliminate the dead anyway effect but continues to reflect that wealth enhances the utility of living

the effect of children on adult demands for health risk reductions we examine patterns in adults willingness to pay for health risk reductions we allow both their marginal utilities of income and their marginal disutilities from health risks to vary systematically with the structures of their households demand by adults for programs which reduce their own health risks is found to be influenced by 1 their parenthood status 2 the numbers of children in different age brackets currently in their households 3 the ages of the adults themselves 4 the latency period before they would fall ill and 5 whether there will still be children in the household at that time for younger adults willingness to pay by parents is greater than for non parents and increases with each additional young child for middle aged adults willingness to pay for corresponding risk reductions falls when teenagers are present and falls further with each additional teenager in the household language en

the impact of electricity supply on economic growth in sri lanka abstract yang energy econ 22 2000 309 has found a bi directional causal relationship between gross domestic product and electricity consumption in taiwan roc this study applies yang s model to examine the impact of electricity supply on economic growth in sri lanka morimoto and hope an extended cba model of hydro projects in sri lanka 2001 have found that the expected increase in economic output due to increased electricity supply parameter eo plays a crucial role in their cost benefit analysis model this study shows that the application of yang s regression analysis is one possible approach to estimate a better range for the parameter eo the estimated figure is that an extra output of rs 88 000 137 000 us1120 1740 for every 1 mw h increase in electricity supply

energy scarcity and potential of renewable energy in bangladesh abstract energy is one of the indispensable inputs for the survival of human being in the earth bangladesh has the very inadequate amount of indigenous non renewable energy resources even which is being diminished rapidly to increase the electricity generation although the installed electricity generation capacity has been increased to 10 709 mw still the amount is insufficient to meet the demand of the country in addition to this the insufficient power generation hinders the socio economic and industrial development this current problem in power generation of bangladesh can be removed by incorporating renewable energy into electricity generation recently utilization of renewable energy and renewable energy technologies rets is getting momentum in the country to achieve not only energy security but also to reduce environmental pollution and to limit the imminent depletion of the non renewable energy resources overall bangladesh has the vast potential of biomass solar hydro wind and tidal powers this paper outlines the present energy scenario of the country following this the potential of available renewable energy resources is also reviewed and presented in this paper

causality relationship between electricity consumption and gdp in bangladesh in this paper we examine the causal relationship between the per capita electricity consumption and the per capita gdp for bangladesh using cointegration and vector error correction model our results show that there is unidirectional causality from per capita gdp to per capita electricity consumption however the per capita electricity consumption does not cause per capita gdp in case of bangladesh the finding has significant implications from the point of view of energy conservation emission reduction and economic development

an investigation of the rationality of consumer valuations of multiple health risks after developing a conceptual analysis of consumer valuation of multiple risks we explore both economic and cognitive hypotheses regarding individual risk taking using a sample of over 1 500 consumers our study ascertains risk dollar tradeoffs for the risks associated with using an insecticide and a toilet bowl cleaner we observe the expected positive valuation of risk reductions and find empirical support for a diminishing in the valuation of risk reduction as the extent of the risk reduction increases we also find evidence of certainty premiums for the total elimination of one risk but no strong evidence of additional certainty premiums for the elimination of multiple risks strong reference risk effects are evident as increases in risk were valued much more greatly than were decreases

drivers barriers and strategies for implementation of renewable energy technologies in rural areas in bangladesh an innovation system analysis abstract bangladesh has good potential for harnessing renewable energy sources such as solar biomass wind and mini hydropower the country has been experiencing a gradual shift towards exploring renewable energy resources as a driving force for rural development a few public sector and non government organizations have started to develop renewable energy technology ret projects in rural areas the lessons learnt from different demonstrations of ret projects reveal that with careful forward planning renewable energy can provide far reaching economic environmental and social benefits to people living in remote rural areas in bangladesh this paper identifies some of the barriers that need to be overcome for the successful development of renewable energy technology sector and betterment of rural livelihoods it does so through a critical review of policy and institutional settings as well as present status and lessons learnt from pilot demonstration of a number of ret projects undertaken by different organizations the study highlights policy implications of the review with the aim of supporting decision makers in formulating renewable energy policies and future plans for bangladesh

parental behavior and the value of children s health a health production approach data on individual children and on sibling pairs are used to examine how family resource allocations affect children s health and to estimate willingness to pay for reduced acute illness in children results highlight the importance of accounting for the endogeneity of child health and suggest that children with greater stocks of health capital whose parents invest in preventive and remedial medical care experience fewer days of illness estimated willingness to pay to avoid one day of illness induced school loss is about 100 to 150 a range broadly consistent with limited prior evidence but sub stantially more than unit values applied in recent policy analyses all else equal willingness to pay is higher among single parents and for uninsured children and the estimated income elasticity is only 0 14 implied aggregate benefits of reductions in children s sick time associated with air pollution control may be substantial

electricity consumption and economic growth in china abstract this paper applies the error correction model to examine the causal relationship between electricity consumption and real gdp for china during 1971 2000 our estimation results indicate that real gdp and electricity consumption for china are cointegrated and there is unidirectional granger causality running from electricity consumption to real gdp but not vice versa in order to overcome the constraints on electricity consumption the chinese government has to speed up the nation wide interconnection of power networks to upgrade urban and rural distribution grids and to accelerate rural electrification

measurement of consumer patient preferences using a hybrid contingent valuation method this study introduces a hybrid two stage contingent valuation method applied to asthma treatment respondents are initially offered a choice between hypothetical medications implying a tradeoff between safety and efficacy stage two elicits willingness to pay wtp for an improvement along a single risk dimension estimates of the value of asthma control based on the initial risk tradeoff stage range from approximately us 1400 to us 2100 per year assuming a us 6 million value of life analysis of the second stage wtp responses yield estimates for the value of a statistical life of approximately us 9 million and for asthma control of approximately us 2200 per year

turkey s short term gross annual electricity demand forecast by fuzzy logic approach abstract this paper aims to forecast turkey s short term gross annual electricity demand by applying fuzzy logic methodology while general information on economical political and electricity market conditions of the country is also given unlike most of the other forecast models about turkey s electricity demand which usually uses more than one parameter gross domestic product gdp based on purchasing power parity was the only parameter used in the model proposed model made good predictions and captured the system dynamic behavior covering the years of 1970 2014 the model yielded average absolute relative errors of 3 9 furthermore the model estimates a 4 5 decrease in electricity demand of turkey in 2009 and the electricity demand growth rates are projected to be about 4 between 2010 and 2014 it is concluded that forecasting the turkey s short term gross electricity demand with the country s economic performance will provide more reliable projections forecasting the annual electricity consumption of a country could be made by any designer with the help of the fuzzy logic procedure described in this paper the advantage of this model lies on the ability to mimic the human thinking and reasoning

parental altruism and the value of avoiding acute illness are kids worth more than parents abstract a model describing parents preferences to relieve their own and their children s acute illnesses is estimated using stated preference data estimated marginal rates of substitution mrs between child and parent illness are about two indicating that parents value children s illness attributes twice as highly as their own the mrs is larger for younger children falls toward unity as the child approaches adulthood and appears to reflect parental altruism rather than parent child differences in initial health or illness costs intra family allocations may compensate for chronic health impairments parents willingness to pay to avoid own or child illness increases with income declines with fertility increases at a decreasing rate with duration and number of symptoms and depends on perceived discomfort and activity restrictions current methods of assessing morbidity benefits of environmental regulations may understate substantially the value of children s health particularly in african american families

do parents benefit it from school health risk reduction the choice experiment method was applied to determine parent s preferences and monetaryvalues of risk reductions on three related health issues in school lead contamination inschool drinking water diarrhea from food contamination and accident from outdoor playground data were obtained from face to face interview of 672 respondents in three regions ofthailand lead contamination is the greatest concern among parents as reflected by thelargest coefficients of risk reduction levels and the highest amount of monetary values elicitedfrom parent s preferences the other two issues are considered of equal importance however parents seem insensitive to the changes of risk reductions of these two issues revealingthe scope insensitivity given the scope insensitivity choice experiment may be seen as apromising method to determine preferences and monetary values of health related issuesthat have no appropriate or precise financial proxy available keywords non market valuation safety in school health risk reduction jel classification d61 i10 i31

the economics of urban afforestation insights from an integrated bioeconomic health model abstract urban afforestation programs are starting to act on the growing body of evidence that nature and greenspace are important determinants of well being however there are a lack of credible investigations into the long term returns on investment of afforestation inclusive of positive and negative externalities project related costs and dynamic environmental feedbacks using the new york city forest canopy as an example our integrated bioeconomic health model illustrates that investments in afforestation produce per planted tree net benefits that are significantly lower than previous similarly comparable estimates 12 vs 172 and are nonlinear in canopy size we also show that a reduction in urban air quality such as those that may be produced by changes in national air quality policies and enforcement can be mitigated through increased investment in urban afforestation our results have significant public policy implications for urban environmental quality initiatives

altruism fertility and the value of children health policy evaluation and intergenerational welfare abstract this paper accounts for the value of children and future generations in the evaluation of health policies this is achieved through the incorporation of altruism and fertility in a value of life type of framework we are able to express adults willingness to pay for changes in child mortality and also to incorporate the welfare of future generations in the evaluation of current policies our model clarifies a series of puzzles from the literature on the value of life and on intergenerational welfare comparisons we show that by incorporating altruism and fertility into the analysis of the recent u s experience the estimated welfare gain of a young adult from reductions in mortality easily doubles

the elasticity of intergenerational substitution parental altruism and fertility choice dynastic models common in macroeconomics use a single parameter to control the willingness of individuals to substitute consumption both intertemporally or across periods and intergenerationally or across parents and their children this article defines the concept of elasticity of intergenerational substitution egs and extends a standard dynastic model in order to disentangle the egs from the eis or elasticity of intertemporal substitution a calibrated version of the model lends strong support to the notion that the egs is significantly larger than one in contrast estimates of the eis suggests that it is at most one what disciplines the identification is the need to match empirically plausible fertility rates for the u s we illustrate the potential role of the egs in macroeconomics

valuing morbidity an integration of the willingness to pay and health status index literatures placing dollar values on human health has long been a controversial aspect of policy analysis and remains difficult given the relatively small number of morbidity valuation studies available by combining both the economic and health literature this paper offers an alternative approach to morbidity valuation and provides estimates for a wide range of short term health conditions

electricity consumption and economic growth in india abstract this paper tries to examine the granger causality between electricity consumption per capita and gross domestic product gdp per capita for india using annual data covering the period 1950 51 to 1996 97 phillips perron tests reveal that both the series after logarithmic transformation are non stationary and individually integrated of order one this study finds the absence of long run equilibrium relationship among the variables but there exists unidirectional granger causality running from economic growth to electricity consumption without any feedback effect so electricity conservation policies can be initiated without deteriorating economic side effects

altruism and environmental risks to health of parents and their children abstract this paper tests an equilibrium condition from a model that incorporates 1 altruism of parents toward their young children and 2 household production of latent health risks the model demonstrates that an altruistic parent s marginal rate of substitution between an environmental health risk to herself and to her child is equal to the ratio of marginal risk reduction costs econometric estimates support this prediction based on data from a stated preference survey involving 488 parents of children aged 3 12 years this outcome implies that parents reallocate family resources to at least partly offset the effectiveness of public programs that aim to reduce their children s environmental risks

a monte carlo based decision support tool for assessing generation portfolios in future carbon constrained electricity industries abstract this paper presents a novel decision support tool for assessing future generation portfolios in an increasingly uncertain electricity industry the tool combines optimal generation mix concepts with monte carlo simulation and portfolio analysis techniques to determine expected overall industry costs associated cost uncertainty and expected co 2 emissions for different generation portfolio mixes the tool can incorporate complex and correlated probability distributions for estimated future fossil fuel costs carbon prices plant investment costs and demand including price elasticity impacts the intent of this tool is to facilitate risk weighted generation investment and associated policy decision making given uncertainties facing the electricity industry applications of this tool are demonstrated through a case study of an electricity industry with coal ccgt and ocgt facing future uncertainties results highlight some significant generation investment challenges including the impacts of uncertain and correlated carbon and fossil fuel prices the role of future demand changes in response to electricity prices and the impact of construction cost uncertainties on capital intensive generation the tool can incorporate virtually any type of input probability distribution and support sophisticated risk assessments of different portfolios including downside economic risks it can also assess portfolios against multi criterion objectives such as greenhouse emissions as well as overall industry costs

market opportunities genetic endowments and intrafamily resource distribution child survival in rural india the authors examine how intrafamily resource allocations respond to changes in economic conditions and to genetic differences in children by estimating the determinants of variations in the sex specific survival differentials of rural indian children based on standard census and household survey data they explore in particular the hypothesis that such differences are related to the relative returns to survival with households selectively allocating resources to children in response to variation in sex differences in their expected earnings opportunities as adults data are from the 1961 census and a 1971 household survey excerpt

health related externalities evidence from a choice experiment health related external benefits are of potentially large importance for public policy this paper investigates health related external benefits using a stated preference discrete choice experiment framed in a health care context and including choice scenarios defined by six attributes related to a recipient and the recipient s condition communicability severity medical necessity relationship to respondent location and amount of contribution requested subjects also completed a set of own treatment scenarios and a values orientation instrument we find evidence of substantial health related external benefits that vary as expected with the scenario attributes and subjects value orientations the results are consistent with a number of hypotheses offered by the general theoretical analysis of health related externalities and the analysis of externalities specific to health care

the trade off between child quantity and quality an empirical investigation of trade offs between number of children and their scholastic performance confirms that family size directly affects children s achievement though parents show no favori

financing human development some lessons from advanced asian countries abstract this paper brings together the main conclusions of a study which has analyzed public expenditure policies pursued by today s advanced asian economies aae and their policies for financing the provision of education and health services during the high growth phase the aaes combined prudent low deficit fiscal policies with large allocations for social services this was combined with efficient public resource allocation within the social sectors for basic education and health services and reliance on the private sector for higher levels of education and expensive curative health care aae experiences with health insurance also hold useful lessons for today s developing countries