a portfolio approach to endogenous growth equilibrium and optimal policy abstract this paper develops a portfolio approach to modeling endogenous growth in continuous time that is especially suitable for addressing fiscal and financial issues in policy design the analysis focuses on the equilibrium relationship between fiscal and financial policy rates of return and wealth allocation we analyze two models the first is based on the arrow romer model with increasing returns and an external effect of capital on labor productivity the second draws on barro s analysis of government spending and endogenous growth in both models we study the equilibrium allocation and discuss the optimal fiscal and financial policy

evolution of the economics of agricultural policy agricultural economists helped develop farm programs to respond to the dire economic situation of the 1920s and 1930s some early authors appreciated that such policies created problems in markets for commodities and inputs over time our understanding of agricultural issues and policies has deepened through the application of improved models and tools of analysis to more extensive data we have developed better answers to old questions and have responded to changing policy instruments market contexts and policy concerns this article traces the evolution of our deepening economic understanding of the causes and consequences of agricultural policy

changing income inequalities within and between nations new evidence fresh data sources on cross national income are examined to document recent changes in the composition of world income inequality within and between nations new evidence shows that during the 1980s and 1990s the composition of world income inequality experienced a fundamental change characterized by the diminishing significance of between nation income differences and the growing prominence of within nation inequalities two competing trends account for this change 1 steady growth in the average level of income inequality within nations and 2 a decline in income inequality between nations these recent trends signify a reversal in one of the major legacies of the industrial revolution the internationalization of world income inequality across national borders the findings raise important questions for future studies of cross national inequality and development

are price limits really bad for equity markets despite widely documented criticisms price limit rules are present in many equity markets around the world using a game theoretic model we argue that if the cost of monitoring a market is high price limit rules are beneficial empirical tests based on a cross section of 43 equity markets across five continents support our theoretical prediction we find that the probability of the existence of price limit rules is greater in markets that incur higher monitoring costs due to poorer business disclosure more corruption and less efficiency in legal regulatory and technological environments

the nature of economic development abstract economic development has been associated with a sustained increase in real per capita gdp over fairly long periods of time such growth rates have been associated with the phenomenon of structural transformation both among the european leaders and the late comers among the developing countries equally compelling though less pervasive has been an essentially harmonious relationship between the growth of per capita gdp macroeconomic stability and a better distribution of income moreover the incidence of poverty has sharply decreased while the leading indicators of human development have recorded a significant improvement wherever per capita income has increased rapidly this property of economic development christened as orderly transformation in this paper is one of the most outstanding stylized facts of economic development and it has been most evident among countries where growth of per capita income has been in excess of 3 per annum

agricultural performance and development strategy retrospect and prospect abstract the slow pace and inequitable pattern of past agricultural growth have been major factors in the continuing problems of poverty hunger and unemployment especially in the poorer regions of the third world past experience shows that agriculture has an important potential in economic development given appropriate structures and policies these historical lessons are of strategic significance for poor countries as they confront severe problems of adjustment this paper examines the main payoffs and obstacles to the pursuit of an agriculture led industrialization strategy together with proposals for appropriate policies that can support such a strategy

economic development and income inequality further evidence on the u curve hypothesis abstract internationally comparable data on inequality and income are utilized to reassess the empirical status of kusnets u curve hypothesis the hypothesis seems well supported when both developed countries dcs and less developed countries lcds are included in the sample however the position changes rather dramatically if the sample is restricted to lcds and very small support for the hypothesis is then observed also a simple comparison indicates that some of the support reported in earlier studies may have been due to the use of conventional gross domestic product per capita in general results based on gini coefficient seem less favorable to the hypothesis than those derived from household income shares

modeling the impact of technological change on nutrition and marketed surplus abstract this study develops and demonstrates procedures for modeling the impact of agricultural technology adoption decisions on consumption and nutrition in a subsistence farming context the method is based on expected direct utility maximization edum formulation and incorporates subsistence quantities for broad aggregates of protein calories and other consumption goods the method is applied to a hillside farming system of southern honduras where new sorghum cultivars and erosion control techniques are being introduced the expected direct utility maximization model allows the estimation of the effects of new technology on consumption and marketed surplus in situations where marginal values of products vary by state of nature and are affected by consumption and production choices the introduction of the new technologies in southern honduras results in improved nutrition and substantial increases in marketed surplus these effects are due to simultaneous changes in output and consumption patterns this work extends the subject of household modeling to problems with risk and thus complements prior work in both the integrated analysis of production consumption decisions and stochastic decision analysis

food security and hedonic behaviour a case study of sao tome e principe abstract food security is still one of the main concerns in economic policy making in less developed countries the objective of the present study is to analyse technological innovation and technological change induced by economics forces with special attention to consumer behaviour consumer choice is studied together with the technological change process from the consumption side such that efficiency problems can be handled if a certain number of weak assumptions can be accepted the framework of the lancaster model is used to study the impact on food security on sao tome e principe changing from a centralised economic policy to a market oriented economy the paper addresses the need to understand how consumption innovation with the introduction of locally produced food consumption can be an efficient solution from the consumption point of view the results obtained with the introduction of matabala into the consumption choice set show that free market functioning supports local products consumption as an efficient solution in sao tome e principe

do regulations work a comprehensive analysis of price limits and trading restrictions in experimental asset markets with deterministic and stochastic fundamental values abstract we examine how traders react to two prominent stock market regulations under a constant fundamental value fv process price limits and trading restrictions significantly reduce the price level and mispricing size when traders are inexperienced under a markov process fv there is no evidence for these regulations to reduce mispricing the novel markov process also serves as a testbed for several financial hypotheses related to the regulations we find that price limits do not improve reactions to market news and the binding of price limits magnifies the momentum in the price movements these findings suggest that the scope of these regulations is limited and that they can backfire in some market environments

participation public policy political economy and development in rural bangladesh 1958 85 abstract during this period four successive regimes in bangladesh have felt reluctantly compelled to set up structures for local participation in government each found it had to reach out beyond the support of urban and rural elites and the military if it was to move beyond mere stability to real development of the country despite many problems most notably local elite takeover at local level and military coup at national level there is considerable evidence particularly from neighboring india to suggest that local participatory institutions can be successful over the longer term in promoting development for the middle and the poorer rural classes

global food balances and food security abstract the major structural imbalance in the current global food scene surpluses in developed countries and deficits in developing countries offers opportunity for substantial progress in assuring food security in both the long and the short run to avail of this opportunity requires an understanding of the close connection between food supplies and purchasing power to purchase food massive investment in rural infrastructure is a major component of long term food security since infrastructure is efficiently produced by labor intensive processes food as a wage good is an important input and the global economy would appear to be under using it from an efficiency point of view in the short run food for work offers opportunity for immediate increase in food security as do food subsidy programs it is essential that a large complex of institutions be developed if the current global scene is to result in increased food security it will take time to develop those structures even though food is available now

widening price limit effects evidence from an emerging stock market abstractthis study investigates the impact of the widening of price limits on the taiwan stock exchange from 7 to 10 by comparing the differences in performance with the different price limit l

modeling agricultural growth multipliers agriculture s potential as an engine of third world growth depends in large part on the size of the production and consumption linkages it stimulates in rural regions current estimates of agricultural growth multipliers within rural regions vary widely not only because economic structures differ across regions but also because the array of fixed price models most commonly used embody widely differing basic assumptions among fixed price models the semi input output formulation projects the most plausible multipliers but even they overstate the magnitude of growth multipliers by 10 to 25 according to the price endogenous model developed here

testing the food first hypothesis a cross national study of dependency sectoral growth and food intake in less developed countries abstract previous cross national studies on dependency and economic growth in less developed countries ldcs seldom compare the impacts of different kinds of dependency their focus on economic growth also overlooks the fact that growth per se does not necessarily benefit the masses an alternative measure of the absolute living standard of the masses i e food intake is examined in this paper this study analyzes data from 73 ldcs after comparing the effects of manufacturing growth and cereal production growth on food intake this study supports the food first hypothesis derived from lappe and collins 1977 work since it demonstrates that in most ldcs even in middle income ldcs cereal production has a much stronger effect on food intake than does manufacturing growth

capital accumulation and the growth of aggregate agricultural production abstract this report empirically examines the role which capital accumulation plays in the growth of agricultural production potential the report assumes that the degree towhich available technology can be implemented in a nation s agricultural sector depends on accumulated investments that have been made in the sector results from estimating aggregate agricultural production functions show the primary importance of rural labor in accounting for agricultural gdp and crop production capital accumulation is the dominant explainer of livestock production estimation results support the conjecture that capital tends to save scarce land resources substitute relationship and use rural labor complementarity relationship output supply elasticities derived from the estimated equations tend to be large the large elasticities imply that price distortions have had large impacts on resource use and production

price limits and stock market volatility abstract we examine the relationship between price limits and stock market volatility we find when price limits are made more less restrictive stock market volatility is usually not lower higher this finding contradicts conventional wisdom and the view of most regulators

volume volatility and new york stock exchange trading halts trading halts increase rather than reduce both volume and volatility volume volatility in the first full trading day after a trading halt is 230 percent 50 to 115 percent higher than following pseudohalts nonhalt control periods matched on time of day duration and absolute net of market returns these results are robust over different halt types and news categories higher posthalt volume is observed into the third day while higher posthalt volatility decays within hours the extent of media coverage is a partial determinant of volume and volatility following both halts and pseudohalts but a separate halt effect remains after controlling for the media effect in the wake of the 1987 market break a number of commentators including the presidential task force on market mechanisms recommended the establishment of circuit breaker mechanisms the primary argument supporting circuit breakers both price limits and trading halts is that nontrading periods provide an opportunity for normal information transmission in times of market duress proponents of circuit breakers claim that during major price changes there can be a breakdown in the transmission of information between the trading floor and market participants therefore the primary function of a circuit breaker should be to reinform participants greenwald and stein 1988 p 17 by lowering informational asymmetries between traders halts could permit the orderly emergence of a new consensus price but would informative trading halts succeed many academics are openly suspicious of any kind of market interference and assume that trading halts are guilty until proven innocent grossman 1990 p 3 for example argues that the closing of markets merely prevents consenting adults from carrying out their desires on the floor of the stock exchange not only do halts impose a liquidity cost on traders but studies suggest that information will not be as

the role of research in policy development the creation of the imf cereal import facility abstract this paper challenges the erroneous yet growing view that social science research has little impact upon public policymaking the case example here is the research lending up to the creation of the cereal import facility at the international monetary fund the study is divided into two parts 1 an intellectual analysis of the major research work on the cereal facility and 2 a political study of how this research work was picked up and translated into reality by policymakers it concludes that social science research must be careful timely and translatable if it is to be effectively used by policymakers

the switch from continuous to call auction trading in response to a large intraday price movement some european exchanges e g euronext frankfurt and madrid make use of a mechanism to moderate price volatility that was proposed by madhavan 1992 as preferable to a trading halt in times of market stress it consists of a temporary switch from continuous to call auction trading in an individual security whenever its price moves beyond predetermined limits this article studies whether this mechanism sharpens the information content of prices dampens volatility and normalizes trading volume and intensity taking intraday data for the madrid order driven continuous market i find post switch improvements in the information content of prices and reductions in volatility especially for thinly traded stocks trading volume and intensity peaked around auctions but soon returned to preevent levels

the measurement of inequality and poverty a policy maker s guide to the literature abstract mathematical measures of poverty and inequality embody values that reflect the historical political social intellectual and ethical forces prevalent at the time of their formulation so that policy makers may select measures of poverty and inequality that are consistent with their values it is important to make explicit the value judgements implicit in the measures models designed to measure poverty and inequality fall into four categories absolute poverty measures absolute income measures relative poverty measures and relative inequality measures this article examines the principal models within each category and discusses the assumptions limitations and values implicit in the models

lessons for the world from us agriculture unbundling technology abstract take as a goal the adequate nourishment of all human beings by the middle of the next century when the human population will be near double its 1980 level with much of the increase occurring in the poorest areas of the world there is a great need to keep food prices low however we must consider the additional goal of sustainability can agricultural sustainability be achieved while producing the required volume of food at low cost this paper will argue that economic development does not require that food be as cheap or agricultural practices be as labor saving as is often assumed

transitory price changes and price limit rules evidence from the tokyo stock exchange we compare the volatility of 24 hour returns computed from the opening and closing prices of a diverse sample of tokyo stock exchange tse stocks we find that volatility at the open is greater than volatility at the close only for the most actively traded tse stocks daytime and overnight return covariances suggest that the volatility patterns are explained by the effect of implicit bid ask spreads at the open and partial price adjustment at the close both of which are related to the intensity of trading our results challenge the view that open to open returns are more volatile than close to close returns for stocks in general and are consistent with the hypothesis that tse price limit rules have a significant impact on the dynamics of security prices

stock return cross autocorrelations and market conditions in japan we show that changes in market conditions significantly affect cross autocorrelations and speed of adjustment in weekly stock returns we find significant positive cross autocorrelations between weekly returns on a portfolio of small firms and lagged large firm portfolio returns only when the lagged aggregate market has experienced a decline in value these positive return cross autocorrelations are also associated with lower abnormal portfolio trading volume and greater delays in the adjustment of individual stock prices to negative market wide information particularly for small firms the effect of lagged market states cannot be explained by market microstructure biases such as nonsynchronous trading or thin trading

a conditional distribution model for limited stock index returns abstract when a price limit regime exists for all of the stocks involved in an index the index return is an aggregate of limited variables and thereby it is restricted to the same limits we argue that neither a censored nor a truncated distribution model is appropriate for the aggregate return the proposed mixed beta distribution allows for varying conditional mean and volatility and with increasing volatility it changes from leptokurtic to platykurtic densities the model is illustrated and statistically evaluated with an empirical application to the shanghai stock market index returns under a 10 price change limit regime

inequality growth and democracy the analysis of the relationship between inequality and economic growth in distinct politi coeconomic environments has been one of the central preoccupations of the extensive theoretical and empirical work on growth in the last decade the authors argue that the empirical evidence available to date strongly indicates the relevance of this work for understanding the elusive causal connection between economic development and democracy the state of the literature suggests considerable sophistication in conceptualizing the direct economic effects of inequality and contains critical insights into politically unconstrained policy making aimed at the alleviation of their negative economic impact however the political feasibility of the recommended policy measures and the politically mediated effects of inequality and redistributive policy on growth and on the strength and stability of democratic regimes are understood less well the authors discuss the critical factors influencing these effects and sketch several approaches to creating a comprehensive politicoeconomic account of the interaction between inequality redistributive policy making and political regimes

the effects of trading halts on price discovery for nyse stocks this article uses intraday data for the year 1992 to investigate the effect of trading halts on price discovery for stocks traded on the new york stock exchange the results show that the degree of benefits from trading halts depends on the types of halts and significance of the news items it is found that trading halts reduce price dispersion when trading is halted due to imbalance in order flows such a positive effect is robust to the significance of news items trading halts can help price discovery when trading is halted due to the fact that some significant news items already hit the market and investors need more time to digest the impacts on price in contrast when officials call for the halt due to the pending news release with little significance trading halts actually inject more noise into the prices and undermine the price discovery process overall the results are consistent with the argument by exchanges that trading halts help dissipate information and facilitate the price discovery pr

food prospects for the developing countries current interest in food prospects for the developing world is based on a set of four relatively straightforward questions upon closer analysis however these questions prove to be successively more complex the first question is quite direct will food production in the third world grow more rapidly than population the answer seems to be a clear yes between 1961 and 1977 the growth of third world production of major food crops averaged 2 6 percent a year slightly higher than the 2 5 percent annual increase in population leonardo paulino forthcoming there is every reason to believe that third world food production in the future will continue to exceed population growth since the processes for accelerated agricultural growth are now in place in so many developing countries and population growth rates are generally declining the clear exceptions are sub saharan africa and the least developed countries these are nearly synonomous even with a change in agricultural policies in these countries there will be considerable time lags before food production growth rates exceed population growth rates the second question is more involved and much more important with respect to its policy implications will ratios of food production self sufficiency increase in the third world in the long run self sufficiency ratios in the third world will indeed increase but that is the long run of decades in the short run of this decade and the next these ratios will just as certainly decline as rapidly accelerating growth in the demand for food in the third world exceeds capacity to accelerate domestic production growth rates this conclusion is reinforced by the tendency for accelerated food production growth to be associated with forces that further accelerate growth in demand the third question is decidedly complex will the real price of food defined in terms of relative shifts in the demand and supply schedules for food shift upwards over the next two decades as compared to the zero or slightly negative trend over the past few decades it is my judgment that it will in the third world demand for food will clearly continue to shift more rapidly than supply it is less certain that the forces in developing countries will overbalance the converse relationship for the developed countries the final question is the most far reaching what will be the impact of these forces on the nutritional status and the degree of poverty of low income people since lowincome people spend 60 to 80 percent of increments to income on food see my 1978 article food prices are a principal determinant of their real income and nutritional status increasing per capita food production and imports allow a rising number of people to eat better preliminary analysis of crosssection data for african countries show that as aggregate per capita food supplies rise the proportion of malnourished children declines see shubh kumar 1981 increased capital intensity and the dynamics of food production itself will raise real wages for much of the laboring class see uma lele s and my 1981 article but for some individuals and particularly for those in countries left out of development processes the situation will be more difficult in the future than in the decades of the 1950 s and 1960 s this i should emphasize is the note of pessimism in this paper

stock market structure and volatility the procedure for opening stocks on the nyse appears to affect price volatility an analytical framework for assessing the magnitude of the structurally induced volatility is presented the ratio of variance of open to open returns to closeto close returns is shown to be consistently greater than one for nyse common stocks during the period 1982 through 1986 tbe greater volatility at the open is not attributable to the way in which public information is released since both the opento open return and the close to close return span the same period of time instead the greater volatility appears to be attributable to private information revealed in trading and to temporaryprice deviations induced by specialist and other traders the implied cost of immediacy at the open is significantly higher than at the close other empirical evidence in this article documents the volume of trading at the open the time delays between the exchange opening and the first transaction in a stock the difference in daytime volatility versus overnight volatility and the extent to which volatility is related to trading volume

the effect on income distribution of development the growth rate and economic strategy abstract an analysis of cross section and time series data for 83 countries confirms some and contradicts other work on income distribution new findings include a dualistic socio political system is highly unfavorable for equality neither the extent of government intervention in the economy nor the rate of manufactured exports are systematically related to income distribution the analysis confirms that there is no systematic relationship between equality and the rate of economic growth educational participation and a reduction in the share of primary exports in gdp are both favorable for equality there is some support for the kuznets hypothesis that inequality increases as per capita income rises to about 400 and then declines with further income increase but the empirical support is not strong and may be weakening over time these findings lead to more optimistic conclusions then other work that rapid growth in a mixed economy is quite consistent with unchanged or even improved income distribution even at early stages of development

options based forecasts of futures prices in the presence of limit moves the reported analysis examines a simultaneous estimation option based approach to forecast futures prices in the presence of daily price limit moves the procedure explicitly allows for changing implied volatilities by estimating the implied futures price and the implied volatility simultaneously using futures and futures options data for three agricultural commodities it is found that the simultaneous estimation approach accounts for the abrupt changes in implied volatility associated with limit moves and generates more accurate price forecasts than conventional methods that rely on only one implied variable

trading and liquidity on the tokyo stock exchange a bird s eye view the trading mechanism for equities on the tokyo stock exchange tse stands in sharp contrast to the primary mechanisms used to trade stocks in the united states in the united states exchange designated specialists have affirmative obligations to provide continuous liquidity to the market specialists offer simultaneous and tight quotes to both buy and sell and supply sufficient liquidity to limit the magnitude of price changes between consecutive transactions in contradistinction the tse has no exchange designated liquidity suppliers instead liquidity is provided through a public limit order book and liquidity is organized through restrictions on maximum price changes between trades that serve to slow down trading in this article we examine the efficacy of the tse s trading mechanisms at providing liquidity our analysis is based on a complete record of transactions and best bid and best offer quotes for most stocks in the first section of the tse over a period of 26 months we study the size of the bid ask spread and its cross sectional and intertemporal stability intertemporal patterns in returns volatility volume trade size and the frequency of trades and market depth based on the response of quotes to trades and the frequency of trading halts and warning quotes the trading mechanism for equities on the tokyo stock exchange tse stands in sharp contrast to the primary mechanisms used to trade stocks in the united states in the united states exchange designated specialists have affirmative obligations to provide continuous liquidity in the market and to maintain a private limit order book with the public s limit orders on the tse exchange designated intermediaries saitori log limit orders and match them to incoming market orders but provide no market making services in the united states specialists offer simultaneous and tight quotes to both buy and sell on the tse public limit orders constitute the available bids and offers in the united states specialists supply sufficient liquidity to limit the magnitude of price changes between consecutive transactions 1 on the tse the market mechanism places limits on the magnitude of consecutive price

income inequality development and dependence a reconsideration we reconsider the role of foreign investment in income inequality in light of recent critiques that question the results of quantitative cross national research on foreign capital penetration we analyze an unbalanced cross national data set in which countries contribute different numbers of observations with a maximum of 88 countries and 488 observations dated from 1967 to 1994 random effects regression models that control for unmeasured country heterogeneity are used to investigate effects of foreign capital penetration on inequality measured as the gini coefficient against the background of an internal developmental model of inequality we adapt firebaugh s 1992 1996 critique of the literature on the effect of foreign investment on economic growth to the study of income inequality and find that the stock of foreign direct investment has an effect on inequality that is independent of the mechanisms identified by firebaugh we explore tsai s 1995 claim that the effect of foreign capital penetration is spurious and find that foreign stock has a significant positive effect on inequality net of region specific differences an alternative interpretation of the findings of the foreign investment inequality literature is discussed in light of the discovery of an inverted u shaped relationship between income inequality and foreign investment stock per capita we conclude that thinking on the relationship between income inequality and investment dependence should be revised in light of an investment development path relating the inflow and outflow of foreign capital to economic development

welfare effects of controlling labor supply an application of the stochastic ramsey model in this paper we extend merton s rev econom stud 42 1975 375 classic stochastic version of the ramsey model by allowing the government to control the expected growth rate of the labor supply we characterize the solution to this control problem for general time separable preferences and derive an analytical solution for the crra case the results show to what extent the planner or government increases consumption and welfare by taking an active role in controlling the economy we also explore the implications of government control of labor growth for the term structure of interest rates and the effects of taxes on capital

price limit performance evidence from the tokyo stock exchange price limit advocates claim that price limits decrease stock price volatility counter overreaction and do not interfere with trading activity conversely price limit critics claim that price limits cause higher volatility levels on subsequent days volatility spillover hypothesis prevent prices from efficiently reaching their equilibrium level delayed price discovery hypothesis and interfere with trading due to limitations imposed by price limits trading interference hypothesis empirical research does not provide conclusive support for either positions we examine the tokyo stock exchange price limit system to test these hypotheses our evidence supports all three hypotheses suggesting that price limits may be ineffective

human development in poor countries on the role of private incomes and public services development is often taken to mean rising incomes discussions of the goals of development now often emphasize the reduction of poverty rather than raising average incomes per se the role of social services particularly basic health and education has also received greater emphasis in the 1980s viewed mainly as instruments for raising the incomes of the poor but in all these approaches income growth of one sort or another is what development is all about a rather different view of the meaning of development has recently found expression in the 1990 human development report hrd produced by the united nations development programme a conceptual underpinning for this approach can be found in the work of amartya sen the essence of this view is that human development what people can actually do and be is the overriding purpose of economic development underdevelopment is viewed as the lack of certain basic capabilities rather than lack of income per se we do not aim here to advocate one of these approaches over the other but rather to explore their implications for development policy for instance what does the human development approach imply about the role of economic growth and in particular about reducing income poverty should development priorities shift toward the provision of public services in poor countries even if such a shift is at the expense of income growth

examining the effectiveness of price limits in an artificial stock market abstract this paper proposes an agent based framework to examine the effectiveness of price limits in an artificial stock market the market is composed of many boundedly rational and heterogeneous traders whose learning behavior is represented by a genetic programming algorithm we calibrate the model to replicate several stylized facts observed in real financial markets based on this environment the impacts of price limits are analyzed from the perspectives of volatility price distortion volume and welfare we find that the imposition of price limits possesses both positive and negative effects however compared with the market without price limits appropriate price limits help to reduce volatility and price distortion and increase the liquidity and welfare

speculative markets and the effectiveness of price limits abstract the aim of this paper is to study the effectiveness of price limits in speculative markets we construct a nonlinear stochastic asset pricing model in which traders rely on technical and fundamental analysis to determine their orders the dynamics of the model mimic stylized facts such as the emergence of bubbles excess volatility fat tails for returns or volatility clustering quite well using this model as a laboratory we find that price limits have the potential to reduce both volatility and deviations from fundamentals the more traders lend themselves to trend extrapolating behavior the better price limits work

the relation between price changes and trading volume a survey this paper reviews previous and current research on the relation between price changes and trading volume in financial markets and makes four contributions first two empiri cal relations are established volume is positively related to the magnitude of the price change and in equity markets to the price change per se second previous theoretical research on the price volume relation is summarized and critiqued and major insights are emphasized third a simple model ofthe price volume relation is proposed that is consis tent with several seemingly unrelated or contradictory observations and fourth several directions for future research are identified

stock market crashes and the performance of circuit breakers empirical evidence this study examines the behavior of a small stock market with circuit breakers and with a one hour preauction order imbalance disclosure during the october 1987 crash the crash and its aftershocks lasted for a week and selling pressure was concentrated in higher beta larger capitalization and lower leverage firm stocks circuit breakers when implemented reduced the next day opening order imbalance and the initial price loss however they had no effect on the long run response some price overreaction and reversal phenomena also are documented

growth and equity with endogenous human capital taiwan s economic miracle revisited this paper presents an endogenous growth model for a small open economy with a significant trade surplus and active government development strategies in order to reexamine the major determinants of economic growth and income distribution this analysis provides a better interpretation for the intertwined relationship between growth and equity an important economic issue that has not been fully addressed by the well known models 5 9 20 in traditional growth studies economists have emphasized the role of two major factor inputs physical capital and labor output growth is considered to depend merely on exogenous shifts in population and technology recently lucas points out that this conventional approach to studying economic growth may leave more than half of output growth unexplained 12 in order to improve the understanding of the underlying endogenous forces promoting economic development new growth theorists have proposed several alternatives to the conventional models such as the endogenous fertility choice 4 the endogenous technological evolution 16 and the endogenous human capital accumulation or learning process 12 13 to name but a few these contributions have generated additional interests in and rich implications for empirical studies of public policy 6 and cross country comparisons 3 15 lucas s endogenous human capital formation model is particularly suitable for studying the

why foreign economic assistance there is general agreement in the economics literature that resource flows among countries in response to market incentives enhance global economic efficiency and welfare in both rich and poor countries it has also been argued that in the presence of capital market imperfections the transfer of resources from developed country governments to the governments of developing countries on commercial terms either directly or through multilateral agencies can normally be expected to be welfare enhancing in both developed and developing countries 1 these arguments do not apply however to official development assistance that involves a substantial grant element two arguments have typically been used in support of transfers that include a grant component one set is based on the economic and strategic self interest of the donor country the second is based on the ethical or moral responsibility of the residents of wealthy countries toward the residents of poor countries both sets of arguments have been the subject of continuous challenge i argue in this article that neither the donor self interest nor the ethical responsibility argument can be rejected on logical or theoretical grounds i also assert that the empirical evidence in support of both the economic and the strategic self interest arguments is exceedingly weak the ethical responsibility arguments impose less burden on the empirical evidence but they are subject to continuous challenge by political theorists and moral philosophers donor self interest

expanding access to agricultural inputs in africa a review of recent market development experience abstract this paper asks what can be done to expand input use in africa and can it be done in a manner that supports continued growth of private sector input markets the precarious food security situation in many african countries has prompted governments and donors to use input distribution or credit programs as a means of rapidly increasing food supply for the poor these efforts however often reduce the ability of input market development programs to stimulate commercial interest in input supply a review of both types of programs describes recent efforts to address constraints to expanded input use and finds that further expansion is often constrained by inadequate investment in a variety of public goods needed to stimulate input led agricultural intensification rather than continuing to invest resources in programs to provide inputs or credit directly to farmers governments with donor assistance should consider shifting their focus to the serious deficiencies in the provision of public goods roads irrigation basic education market information systems research and extension and improved institutions contract law and enforcement systems of grades and standards improvements in these areas can both lower costs of supply and increase farm level demand creating a situation where the private sector will have greater incentives to expand input distribution networks to zones and farmers who currently do not have access

labor supply flexibility and portfolio choice in a life cycle model abstract this paper examines the effect of the labor leisure choice on portfolio and consumption decisions over an individual s life cycle the model incorporates the fact that individuals may have considerable flexibility in varying their work effort including their choice of when to retire given this flexibility the individual simultaneously determines optimal levels of current consumption labor effort and an optimal financial investment strategy at each point in his life cycle we show that labor and investment choices are intimately related the ability to vary labor supply ex post induces the individual to assume greater risks in his investment portfolio ex ante

order imbalances and stock price movements on october 19 and 20 1987 on october 19 1987 nyse stocks in the s p index declined seven percentage points more than nyse stocks not in this index in the first hour of trading on october 20 the s p stocks virtually recovered to the level of the non s p stocks there is a strong relation between order imbalances and stock price movements both in analyses of time series and cross sections thus in addition to the breakdown in the linkage between future prices and the spot index on these two days there were also breakdowns in the linkage among nyse stocks

the scarcity syndrome that may affect us profoundly in years ahead after half a century of conventional wisdom that the farm problem was one of surplus today s perception is that the problem is shortage i call this the scarcity syndrome it has seeped into farmer attitudes economic analyses and legislation it has helped escalate farmland prices and the demand for credit it will probably profoundly affect commodity programs during the 1980s we are not sufficiently aware of the far reaching effects of this new attitude in this note i examine the scarcity syndrome its validity and effects

income distribution and development some stylized facts in recent years the relationship between income distribution and the process of development has come under increasing scrutiny much of the debate has focused on the hypothesis originally advanced by simon kuznets that the secular behavior of inequality follows an inverted u shaped pattern with inequality first increasing and then decreasing with development this hypothesis has become so much a part of the conventional wisdom on this subject that it has generated considerable skepticism about the welfare implications of the development process indeed on some interpretations developing countries face the grim prospect not just of increasing relative inequality but also of declining absolute incomes for the lower income groups

farm nonfarm linkages in rural sub saharan africa this paper is an accumulation over the past 25 years of a body of detailed work examining the structure of africa s rural nonfarm economy first it systematically reviews empirical evidence on the nature and magnitude of the african rural nonfarm economy it then explores differences across locality and size across countries and over time in an effort to assess likely patterns of growth a subsequent review of key production and consumption parameters allows an estimate of the magnitude of the agricultural growth multipliers in africa the paper concludes with a brief discussion of policies and programs that will be necessary if farm nonfarm growth linkages are to achieve their full potential

market distortions and benefits from research the benefits from cost reducing research and their distribution under a range of price policies are compared with those that would arise in the absence of the policies while any price policy affects the distribution of research benefits the net national or world benefits may be reduced lef unchanged or increased depending on the nature of the policy and the significance of the country in the world market for the commodity some implications for decisions on price policies and for distortions in incentives for the allocation of resources to research are raised

estimation of a two level demand system with limited dependent variables a two level demand model was derived from a strongly separable conditional indirect utility function to analyze dominican rural and urban household consumption at different income levels for samples with significant zero consumption a multivariate limited dependent variable model utilizing the concept of virtual prices was used to obtain consistent estimates of consumption parameters results show that households with higher incomes tend to be less responsive to own price and income changes in consumption of most food and nonfood commodities for demographic variates the elasticities of rice and aggregate food with respect to household composition variables are all positive with few exceptions price and income responses of household food and nonfood consumption have significant policy importance this study provides insights into the consumption behavior of rural and urban dominican households within the framework of a complete demand system three basic groups of determinants of household consumption are explored commodity prices household total expenditure and demographic variables our treatment of these fundamental issues involves the application to demand analysis of a a classical theoretical result about commodity decentralization and price aggregation and b an econometric technique to deal with limited dependent variables in the demand system framework the analysis of detailed commodities is often prohibitive because increasing the size of the demand system substantially increases the number of unknown parameters to estimate a relatively large number of parameters in this study the theoretical implications of twostage budgeting and perfect price aggregation are used to construct a two level demand model that is consistent with constrained util

a transaction data study of weekly and intradaily patterns in stock returns abstract weekly and intradaily patterns in common stock prices are examined using transaction data for large firms negative monday close to close returns accrue between the friday close and the monday open for smaller firms they accrue primarily during the monday trading day for all firms significant weekday differences in intraday returns accrue during the first 45 minutes after the market opens on monday mornings prices drop while on the other weekday mornings they rise otherwise the pattern of intraday returns is similar on all weekdays most notable is an increase in prices on the last trade of the day

agricultural technology and farm nonfarm growth linkages abstract agricultural growth stimulates rural nonfarm activity by boosting demand for production inputs and consumer goods but different kinds of agricultural technology promote different patterns of nonfarm linkages to explore how key features of agricultural technology affect growth in the rural nonfarm economy this paper reviews an array of cross section and time series evidence bearing on the dynamics of the rural nonfarm economy then using consumption and production parameters associated with different agricultural technologies it introduces a simple model which isolates the effects of different technologies on nonfarm growth linkages

which model of capitalism best delivers both wealth and equality capitalism is the dominant economic system adopted throughout the global economy but there are many different models of capitalism practiced depending on what the society decides economic effectiveness is in this study we assert that an effective economy simultaneously achieves two seemingly divergent outcomes it 1 creates economic wealth efficiently and 2 shares that wealth equitably employing insights from whitley s national business systems framework and fuzzy set analysis we examine how national institutions collectively configure with respect to the overall level of equitable wealth creation within 48 developed and developing economies we find that three configurations are associated with relatively high levels of equitable wealth creation and another three are associated with relatively low levels as such our analysis supports the notion of equifinality that there is no one optimal model of capitalism furthermore we begin to demonstrate that these models of capitalism are constantly evolving but their evolution is generally slow even when considering the practice of capitalism before and after the 2008 global economic crisis we discuss the implications of these findings for the study of international business with a special emphasis on considering a more holistic context for exploring how multinational enterprises interact with their institutional environment s