decomposition analysis of co2 emission intensity between oil producing and non oil producing sub saharan african countries abstract the need to decompose co2 emission intensity is predicated upon the need for effective climate change mitigation and adaptation policies such analysis enables key variables that instigate co2 emission intensity to be identified while at the same time providing opportunities to verify the mitigation and adaptation capacities of countries however most co2 decomposition analysis has been conducted for the developed economies and little attention has been paid to sub saharan africa the need for such an analysis for ssa is overwhelming for several reasons firstly the region is amongst the most vulnerable to climate change secondly there are disparities in the amount and composition of energy consumption and the levels of economic growth and development in the region thus a decomposition analysis of co2 emission intensity for ssa affords the opportunity to identify key influencing variables and to see how they compare among countries in the region also attempts have been made to distinguish between oil and non oil producing ssa countries to this effect a comparative static analysis of co2 emission intensity for oil producing and non oil producing ssa countries for the periods 1971 1998 has been undertaken using the refined laspeyres decomposition model our analysis confirms the findings for other regions that co2 emission intensity is attributable to energy consumption intensity co2 emission coefficient of energy types and economic structure particularly co2 emission coefficient of energy use was found to exercise the most influence on co2 emission intensity for both oil and non oil producing sub saharan african countries in the first sub interval period of our investigation from 1971 1981 in the second subinterval of 1981 1991 energy intensity and structural effect were the two major influencing factors on emission intensity for the two groups of countries however energy intensity effect had the most pronounced impact on co2 emission intensity in non oil producing sub saharan african countries while the structural effect explained most of the increase in co2 emission intensity among the oil producing countries finally for the period 1991 1998 structural effect accounted for much of the decrease in intensity among non oil producers while co2 emission coefficient of energy use was the major force driving the decrease among oil producing countries the dynamic changes in the co2 emission intensity and energy intensity effects for the two groups of countries suggest that fuel switching had been predominantly towards more carbon intensive production in oil producing countries and less carbon intensive production in non oil producing ssa countries in addition to the decomposition analysis the article discusses policy implications of the results we hope that the information and analyses provided here would help inform national energy and climate policy makers in ssa of the relative weaknesses and possible areas of strategic emphasis in their planning processes for mitigating the effects of climate change

the energy transition of the transition economies an empirical analysis the aggregate manufacturing energy intensity of 28 countries in eastern europe and central asia had declined by 35 percent during 1998 2008 this study reveals strong evidence of convergence less efficient countries improved more rapidly and the cross country variance in energy productivity narrowed over time an index decomposition analysis indicates that energy intensities declined largely because of more efficient energy use rather than shifts from energy intensive to less intensive manufacturing activities income growth and energy price increases were the main drivers of the convergence they dominated the impact of trade which led to specialization in energy intensive industries

dynamics and determinants of energy intensity in the service sector a cross country analysis 1980 2005 we present a detailed analysis of energy intensity developments across 23 service sectors in 18 oecd countries over the period 1980 2005 we find that the shift towards a service economy has contributed to lower overall energy intensity levels in the oecd but this contribution would have been considerably larger if the service sector had realized the same degree of energy efficiency improvements as the manufacturing sector in most oecd countries energy intensity levels in services tend to decrease relatively slow especially after 1995 if we control this trend for the impact of structural changes within the services sector by means of a decomposition analysis we find that in about one third of the oecd countries energy intensity levels in services have increased over time the impact of structural changes on aggregate energy intensity dynamics in services has increased considerably after 1995 highlighting a relatively poor energy efficiency performance within a wide range of service sectors we show that the introduction of information and communication technology ict plays a potentially important role here using panel data regression analysis we find a limited role for energy prices in explaining variation in energy productivity while climate conditions clearly impact energy productivity

money and credit in liquidity provision abstract this paper studies the liquidity provision in a model where the roles of money are challenged by other financial instruments alternative to money credit can be used as means of payment and rate dominating assets are available to serve as stores of value two features are found to be crucial in rendering money valuable in this environment information asymmetry in credit trading relationship and uncertainty in individuals liquidity demand in general the model economy can display a payment mechanism of money only credit only or mixed use of money and credit in transactions depending on the severity of the information asymmetry the optimal quantity of money in our paper is shown to contrast those in other monetary models

residential energy demand in oecd countries and the role of irreversible efficiency improvements abstract after undergoing substantial changes during a period of high energy prices household energy demand did not rebound in times of declining energy prices as might have been expected hence other factors such as irreversible improvements in technical efficiency must be understood in order to describe both past and future household energy demand in this paper we consider irreversible efficiency improvements as a major reason for the moderate growth in energy demand after the plummeting of the oil price in 1985 we test different econometric models to take into account efficiency indicators the major conclusions of our investigation are i price elasticities are different for rising and falling prices for the latter they are close to zero implying a low rebound effect in the residential sector ii technical efficiency is an important parameter for describing and forecasting energy demand and iii income elasticities turn out to be higher once we incorporate indicators of technological efficiency in the process of estimating energy demand

international comparisons of domestic energy consumption abstract governments of many industrialized countries have committed themselves to substantially reduce their domestic emissions of greenhouse gases emission reductions can be achieved through technology and or sector specific policies to decide which part of the economy environmental policy should be concentrated at insight must be gained into the relative importance of the various factors determining domestic aggregate fossil fuel consumption by applying structural decomposition analysis sda across nations the factors causing per capita energy use to differ between countries can be identified which sheds light on where potential energy saving options can be found to demonstrate the usefulness of between country sda we apply the technique to a set of 8 oecd countries

a framework for monetary and banking analysis one of the benefits of monetary instability is that it reminds us both by inducing change in financial institutions and by bringing out the monetary cranks that the monetary arrangements we take for granted are not immutable in this paper i set out and analyse a simple model of money banking and price level determination the model is first used to illustrate recent developments in the theory and analysis of banking the assumptions are then extended to analyse price level determination in an economy becoming an inside money economy as high powered money goes out of use the paper concludes by raising the major unresolved questions about banking money and price level determination the topics i shall discuss have only recently again become popular in the united states but they have a long history at the centre of monetary and macro economics the contributions of wicksell 1936 original in 1898 patinkin 1965 the radcliffe commission 1960 tobin 1963 and gurley and shaw 1963 are the best known of the classic analyses more recently black 1970 fama 1980 and others have returned to the questions of what if anything distinguishes banks from other financial intermediaries how an inside money economy would operate and what monetary arrangements other than current fiat money systems might be developed

the determinants of aggregate energy use in west germany factor substitution technological change and trade this paper examines the determinants of production related energy use in west germany over the period 1976 1994 the approach is to estimate a system of share equations for energy capital low skilled labor high skilled labor and materials in the west german production sector taking account of biased technological change and increasing trade orientation while technological change is found to be energy saving increased openness is energy using i e tends to increase the energy share factor substitution biased technological change and trade contribute to the year to year volatility of energy intensity in the proportion 66 30 4 the results are robust across several specifications examined

specialization transactions technologies and money growth this paper develops a differentiated product model with endogenous specialization in which either money or a costly alternative transactions technology can be used for market purchases we discuss the real effects of monetary growth in this model which differ from those in standard cash in advance models and the implied interest sensitivity of money demand in general equilibrium

co2 embodiment in china australia trade the drivers and implications abstract this study focuses on co 2 emissions embodied in the characteristic china australia bilateral trade which refer to the co 2 emissions due to the production of goods traded between the two countries we perform an assessment of the co 2 embodiment in the trade during the period between 2002 and 2010 we find that the scale effect has been a dominant effect contributing to an increase of co 2 emissions embodied in the bilateral trade through the years while the composition effect seems to be a major driver for reducing co 2 embodiment in the exports of australia to china based on an analysis of the difference between the amounts of actual co 2 embodiment and those in a hypothetical no trade scenario we estimate that the net co 2 emissions due to the bilateral trade declined from around 10 mt of co 2 emissions in 2002 to 10 mt in 2010 that is the bilateral trade contributed to a reduction of the global carbon emissions in the recent years this finding suggests that the rapid growth of exports of carbon intensive goods from australia to china has helped in reducing carbon emissions globally because carbon intensity factors of those goods are much lower in australia than those in china

terminating hyperinflation in the dismembered habsburg monarchy to assess the validity of thomas sargent s claim that hyperinflation can be terminated without dire employment effects monthly unemploymentpercentage estimates were constructed for poland hungary and austriaover the period both before and after monetary stabilization followingworld war i these data reveal that there were significant effects onemployment in the three territories unemployment peaked in poland at alittle less than 13 percent in hungary at 12 percent and probably higher and in austria at 7 percent an attempt is made to identify those considerations that contributed to the emergence of unemploymentwith the advent of monetary stabilization copyright 1986 by american economic association

why did the energy intensity fall in china s industrial sector in the 1990s the relative importance of structural change and intensity change there have been a variety of studies investigating the relative importance of structural change and real intensity change to the change in china s energy consumption in the 1980s however no detailed analysis to date has been done to examine whether or not the increased energy efficiency trend in the 1980s still prevailed in the 1990s this article has filled this gap by investigating the change in energy consumption in china s industrial sector in the 1990s based on the data sets of value added and end use energy consumption for the 29 industrial subsectors and using the newly proposed decomposition method of giving no residual our results clearly show that the overwhelming contributor to the decline in industrial energy use in the 1990s was the decline in real energy intensity indicating that the trend of real energy intensity declines in the 1980s at the 2 digit level was still maintained in the 1990s this conclusion still holds even if we lower the growth rate dramatically in line with the belief that the growth rate of china s gdp may be overestimated

decomposition of aggregate carbon intensity for the manufacturing sector comparison of declining trends from 10 oecd countries for the period 1971 1991 abstract as with total energy consumption or aggregate energy intensity changes in aggregate carbon intensity may also be decomposed or attributed to changes in various components including fuel mix for electricity generation final energy mix sub sectoral economic activity and sub sectoral energy intensities the adaptive weighted divisia rolling base year index specification is applied to total carbon emissions from the manufacturing sector of 10 oecd countries for the period 1971 1991 declines in aggregate carbon intensity for these countries range from 70 and may be primarily attributed to decreases in energy intensity i e increases in the average factor productivity of energy however these declines in aggregate carbon intensity appear to have a complex linkage to increases in energy prices as well as changes in other determinants of gross industrial output

interfuel competition in the industrial sector of seven oecd countries abstract the purpose of this article is to present an analysis of interfuel substitution in the industrial sector of seven major oecd countries the united states canada japan germany france the united kingdom and italy over the 1960 1993 period translog models are used to provide estimates of price elasticities from annual data for each country results outline the weakness of price elasticities and changes in behaviour over the last 35 years and show evidence of asymmetric effects since the collapse of oil prices in 1986 substitution has stopped industrial energy demand and oil consumption have stagnated interfuel substitution is widely induced by events other than relative price changes energy policy political and institutional constraints changes in economic activity characteristics within individual country sectors

decomposition analysis of the variations in residential electricity consumption in brazil for the 1980 2007 period measuring the activity intensity and structure effects abstract introduced at the end of the 1970s to study the impacts of structural changes on electricity consumption by industry index decomposition analysis techniques have been extended to various other areas to help in the formulation of energy policies notably in developed countries however few authors have applied these techniques to study the evolution of energy consumption in developing countries in brazil the few available studies have focused only on the industrial sector in this article we apply the decomposition technique called the logarithmic mean divisia index lmdi to electricity consumption of the brazilian residential sector to explain its evolution in terms of the activity structure and intensity affects over the period from 1980 to 2007 the technique is sufficiently robust and flexible to perform this analysis by disaggregating residential consumers by consumption classes and regions of the country among the main results is measurement of the impact of government programs for income transfer and universal service on variations in residential consumption typical of developing countries

manufacturing energy use in oecd countries decomposition of long term trends abstract in this paper we examine manufacturing energy use in 13 oecd countries over the period 1971 1995 we describe changes in aggregate energy intensity using the adaptive weighting divisia decomposition method we contrast the development in the periods after the oil price shocks of 1973 and 1979 with the period of relatively stable energy prices after the oil price crash of 1986 the results show that manufacturing output grew in most countries pushing up energy use the share of electricity increased in almost every sector while there was a clear trend away from oil and coal towards natural gas changes in the structure of output drove up energy use between 1973 and 1994 in some countries and down in others changes in energy intensities had a profound and downward effect on manufacturing energy use in all countries however contrasting the period after oil prices fell in 1986 with earlier years we see that for most countries the rate of energy intensity decline slowed slightly but did not reverse with falling prices in a few countries efficiency improvements continued to have a strong effect this suggests that even without higher prices improvements of energy efficiency seems to take place

china s changing energy intensity trend a decomposition analysis china experienced a dramatic decline in energy intensity from the onset of economic reform in the late 1970s until 2000 but since then the rate of decline slowed and energy intensity actually increased in 2003 most previous studies found that most of the decline was due to technological change but disagreed on the role of structural change to the best of our knowledge no decomposition study has investigated the role of inter fuel substitution in the decline in energy intensity or the causes of the rise in energy intensity since 2000 in this paper we use logarithmic mean divisia index lmdi techniques to decompose changes in energy intensity in the period 1980 2003 we find that 1 technological change is confirmed as the dominant contributor to the decline in energy intensity 2 structural change at the industry and sector sub industry level actually increased energy intensity over the period of 1980 2003 although the structural change at the industry level was very different in the 1980s and in the post 1990 period 3 structural change involving shifts of production between sub sectors however decreased overall energy intensity 4 the increase in energy intensity since 2000 is explained by negative technological progress 5 inter fuel substitution is found to contribute little to the changes in energy intensity

transaction services inflation and welfare this paper is motivated by empirical observations on the comovements of currency velocity inflation and the relative size of the credit services sector we document these comovements and incorporate into a monetary growth model a credit services sector that provides services that help people economize on money our model makes two new contributions first we show that direct evidence on the appropriately defined credit service sector for the united states is consistent with the welfare cost measured using an estimated money demand schedule second we provide estimates of the welfare cost of inflation that have some new features

contributions of weather and fuel mix to recent declines in us energy and carbon intensity a recent 1996 2000 acceleration of declines in energy andcarbon intensity in the u s remains largely unexplained this study usesdivisia decomposition and regression to test two candidate explanations fuel mix and weather the divisia method demonstrates that fuel mix doesnot explain the declines in carbon intensity the fuel mix both overalland for electricity generation became slightly more carbon intensiveover the study period though the slight trend reversed before the end ofthe period a regression based correction to the divisia indices accounting for variation in heating and cooling degree days indicatesthat warmer weather accounts for about 30 percent ofthe total declines this leaves declines of more than 2 percent per year and an accelerationof more than 1 percent over previous decade remaining to beexplained

search financial market frictions and monetary transmission this paper evaluates the implications of search and matching frictions in the financial market for the bank lending channel of monetary policy borrowers and lenders participate in a decentralized loan market for the purpose of establishing long term credit relationships and the provision of loanable funds to productive firms locating credit relationships is costly in terms of time and real resources and the interest rate is negotiated via a bargaining mechanism this structure is incorporated into an otherwise standard monetary business cycle framework and used to study how such frictions in the credit market contribute to explaining the contemporaneous impact and propagation of monetary growth shocks and inflation while anticipated inflation negatively impacts real activity it can also increase loan market participation and the inflow of newly established credit relationships it is shown that i bargaining and costly search mitigates the traditional inflation tax effect of monetary injections and ii the existence of long term lending relations tends to dampen liquidity effects monetary shocks in this environment lead to larger liquidity effects relative to the frictionless case and are capable of generating persistence in the nominal interest rate labor consumption and output it can also explain the excess volatility of credit creation relative to output and the observation that overall credit creation can lead output over the business cycle

a banking explanation of the us velocity of money 1919 2004 the paper shows that us gdp velocity of m1 money has exhibited long cycles around a 1 25 per year upward trend during the 1919 2004 period it explains the velocity cycles through shocks constructed from a dsge model and annual time series data ingram et al 1994 model velocity is stable along the balanced growth path which features endogenous growth and decentralized banking hat produces exchange credit positive shocks to credit productivity and money supply increase velocity as money demand falls while positive goods productivity shock raises temporary output and velocity the paper explains such velocity volatility at both business cycle and long run frequencies with filtered velocity turning negative starting during the 1930s and the 1987 crashes and again around 2003 results suggest that the money and credit shocks appear to be more important for velocity during less stable times and the goods productivity shock more important during stable times

money and credit as means of payment abstract a stochastic economic environment is presented in which the mix of cash and resource costly credit used as means of payment is endogenous for reasonable values of the credit cost parameter velocity can be quite variable and sensitive to the nominal interest rate those parameter values also generate larger welfare costs of inflation than have been found previously and a sizable impact of inflation on real interest rates

towards sustainability of energy systems a primer on how to apply the concept of energy services to identify necessary trends and policies virtually all goods and services that characterize modern societies welfare depend on the provision of commercial energy the core objective of this paper is to identify necessary changes in trends for achieving a transition towards more sustainable energy systems and development paths the major conclusions of this analysis are i a rigorous rethinking process has to take place to identify which level of energy services per capita lead to enhancing human welfare and quality of life ii a significant increase in energy conversion efficiency has to be triggered to finally provide energy services with far less input of energy than today iii a continuous increase in the share of renewable energy sources and other low emission options has to be brought about iv however as history has shown this process of technological learning has to be accompanied by proper energy price and regulatory policies otherwise it is very likely that energy conservation gains due to technical efficiency improvements will be outweighed again by increases in energy service demand and straightforward energy consumption and co 2 emissions

wage subsidies and fair wages abstract wage subsidies can be provided directly to the worker or indirectly by subsidizing the employer with reduced cost of labor employers offer higher wages the standard literature stipulates that this statutory incidence bears no implications for the economic incidence we propose and test a mechanism by which indirect subsidies lead to higher social welfare studies show that workers reciprocate higher wages with higher effort indirect subsidies are shifted to the workers as higher wages leading workers to reciprocate with higher effort and productivity a controlled laboratory experiment supports our behavioral hypotheses and confirms the behavioral and welfare implications

modelling residential electricity demand in the gcc countries abstract this paper aims at understanding the drivers of residential electricity demand in the gulf cooperation council countries by applying the structural time series model in addition to the economic variables of gdp and real electricity prices the model accounts for population weather and a stochastic underlying energy demand trend as a proxy for efficiency and human behaviour the resulting income and price elasticities are informative for policy makers given the paucity of previous estimates for a region with particular political structures and economies subject to large shocks in particular the estimates allow for a sound assessment of the impact of energy related policies suggesting that if policy makers in the region wish to curtail future residential electricity consumption they would need to improve the efficiency of appliances and increase energy using awareness of consumers possibly by education and marketing campaigns moreover even if prices were raised the impact on curbing residential electricity growth in the region is likely to be very small given the low estimated price elasticities unless that is prices were raised so high that expenditure on electricity becomes such a large proportion of income that the price elasticities increase in absolute terms

the welfare costs of moderate inflations in the recent past the view that a little bit of inflation was good for the economy was widely held the phillips curve in its earlier incarnations implied that moderate inflation was worth tolerating because it would permit lower unemployment this justification for tolerating inflation has long since been abandoned by economists and policymakers because both theory and experience showed it to be false nevertheless one legacy of this era seems to be a fairly widespread tolerance for moderate inflation recently there has been much discussion of removing this inflationary bias by passing legislation that would require the federal reserve to target zero inflation in this paper we examine some of the consequences of achieving that goal we appraise the revenue and welfare costs of policies designed to reduce moderate inflation rates to zero much has been written about why government policies may have an inflationary bias in this paper we don t address the issue of what motivates governments to inflate implicit in our analysis however is the notion that one important motive for inflation is the revenue raising potential of the inflation tax it would be difficult to argue that the inflation tax constitutes an important revenue source for the united states one indirect and very imperfect measure of this would be contributions by the federal lleserve to the treasury in recent years those rebates have amounted to

structural change and energy efficiency in industry the change in the ratio of energy consumed to industrial production is examined over the years 1968 1980 changes in the composition of industry are analysed creating a better picture of movements in physical efficiency of energy use the medium term trends show the significance of the 1973 oil crisis the effects being contrary to those of intuition the implications of the two recessions for efficiency and industrial structure are described in detail the role of demand often relegated to an incidental consideration is brought to the fore in the years following 1973 it appears more important than ex post substitution in production and with this comes a particular implication for the use of aggregate production functions

an emerging equilibrium in the eu emissions trading scheme abstract the european union s emissions trading scheme ets is the key policy instrument of the european commission s climate change program aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions to eight percent below 1990 levels by 2012 a critically important element of the eu ets is the establishment of a market determined price for eu allowances this article examines the extent to which several theoretically founded factors including economic growth energy prices and weather conditions determine the expected prices of the european union co 2 allowances during the 2005 through to the 2009 period the novel aspect of our study is that we examine heavily traded futures instruments that have an expiry date in phase 2 of the eu ets our study adopts both static and recursive versions of the johansen multivariate cointegration likelihood ratio test as well as a variation on this test with a view to controlling for time varying volatility effects our results are indicative of a new pricing regime emerging in phase 2 and point to a maturing market driven by the fundamentals these results are valuable both for traders of eu allowances and for those policy makers seeking to improve the design of the european union ets

what is the role of openness for china s aggregate industrial so2 emission a structural analysis based on the divisia decomposition method abstract having observed the weaknesses in previous structural analyses on the role of environmental kuznets curve ekc the author proposes a detailed analysis using a rich data set of provincial level production and so2 emission intensity of 13 industrial sectors the latter represent more than 98 of the total industrial production in each chinese province for the period 1991 2001 through the use of the log mean divisia index decomposition method the variations in province level industrial so2 emissions with regard to the 1990 baseline level are decomposed into the contribution from three components scale composition and technical effects the following analysis seeks to explain how trade openness affects aggregate industrial so2 emission through its impact on the structural determinants for these three components of region specific environmental variations

deposit banks and the market for payment media this paper develops a model of bank deposit pricing with optimal consumer choices of spending shares among alternative media of exchange interpreting deposits as a tie in feature of the sale of bank payment services the paper shows that the wedge between consumer and social costs of currency use may reverse typical prescriptions regarding bank market structure and distortionary taxes on banks an explanation is offered for below cost bank service fees despite deregulated deposit interest rates while rate ceilings are shown to induce substitution into payment media with higher social costs copyright 1992 by ohio state university press

does energy efficiency promote economic growth evidence from a multicountry and multisectoral panel dataset abstract we examine the causal relationship between energy efficiency and economic growth based on panel data for 56 high and middle income economies from 1978 to 2012 using a panel vector autoregression approach we find evidence of a long run granger causality from economic growth to lower energy intensity for all economies we also find evidence of long run bidirectional causality between lower energy intensity and higher economic growth for middle income economies this finding suggests that beyond climate benefits middle income economies may also earn an extra growth dividend from energy efficiency measures

liquidity loanable funds and real activity abstract this paper develops a general equilibrium model of two traditional explanations of the monetary black box linking money and real activity the liquidity effect and the loanable funds effect these effects are modeled with a monetary production economy in which central bank injections of cash are funnelled into the economy through the credit market since only borrowers have direct access to the newly injected cash monetary injections cause nominal interest rates to fall if firms are borrowers then monetary injections also increase current and future real activity

optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital abstract this paper is concerned with the structure and time consistency of optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital in a dynamic context optimal taxation means distributing tax distortions over time in a welfare maximizing way for a barter economy our main finding is that with debt commitments of sufficiently rich maturity structure an optimal policy if one exists is time consistent in a monetary economy the idea of optimal taxation must be broadened to include an inflation tax and we find that time consistency does not carry over an optimal inflation tax requires commitment by rules in a sense that has no counterpart in the dynamic theory of ordinary excise taxes the reason time consistency fails in a monetary economy is that nominal assets should from a welfare maximizing point of view always be taxed away via an immediate inflation in a kind of capital levy this emerges as a new possibility when money is introduced into an economy without capital

swedish co2 emissions 1993 2006 an application of decomposition analysis and some methodological insights this study undertakes a decomposition analysis to identify the drivers of carbon dioxide emissions change in the swedish business and industry sectors 1993 2006 on aggregate energy intensity decreased but this does not seem to have been very important for reducing emissions rather fuel substitution seems to have been more important which is in line with findings from the decomposition literature on sweden however at the sectoral level we find no clear pattern of the effect of fuel substitution and energy intensity on emissions we also draw some methodological conclusions decomposition analysis should be undertaken at the most disaggregate level possible assessing decomposition results by summing results over several time periods leads to biased results and decomposition analysis should not be based only on some initial and final years of a long time period furthermore we address the problem of double counting energy flows in decomposition analysis of aggregate effects when the energy sector is included and point out potential problems related to output measured in monetary terms

impacts of growth and structural change on co2 emissions of developing countries abstract carbon dioxide emissions the most significant greenhouse gas are growing at more rapid rates in developing economies relative to advanced economies this paper estimates the effects of the growth of gdp changes in industrial structure fuel mixes and energy efficiency on the carbon dioxide emissions of nine developing countries using a decomposition model policy implications for reducing emissions in the light of the findings are discussed

does the private sector help or hurt the environment evidence from carbon dioxide pollution in developing countries abstract how does the nature of enterprise ownership affect the environment in an economy conventional wisdom and theoretical conjectures are split on this important question in this paper we estimate a reduced form random effects model using data from 44 developing countries over nine years 1987 95 to study for any systematic empirical relationship between the relative level of private sector involvement in an economy and the environmental performance of the economy in terms of its emission of industrial carbon dioxide we control for both observed and unobserved crosscountry heterogeneity along various institutional and structural dimensions such as the scope of financial market industrial sector composition and level of foreign direct investment the regression results indicate that the higher the degree of private sector involvement in a developing economy the lower is its environmental degradation in addition its environmental degradation is likely to be further reduced in presence of a well functioning domestic capital market and through increased participation by developed economies in its private sector development

factors shaping aggregate energy intensity trend for industry energy intensity versus product mix understanding the mechanisms of change of energy consumption in industry has attracted much attention since the 1973 world oil crisis a popular line of research has been to decompose changes in the aggregate energy intensity of industry to give the relative impacts arising from energy intensity change and product mix change using a decomposition technique many empirical studies covering a large number of countries have been reported the main objective of this paper is to put together the empirical results reported in these studies in a coherent framework and identify possible systematic features of particular interest are the basic trends in this line of research the relative importance of energy intensity change and product mix change possible variations over time and between country groups in the energy impacts of these changes and inconsistencies in findings among studies an overview of the decomposition technique including its strengths weaknesses and role in industrial energy consumption studies is also presented

the welfare cost of inflation in a cash in advance economy with costly credit the paper presents a modification of the lucas stokey 1983 cash in advance economy in which the representative consumer decides based on relative prices which goods to buy with cash and which with costly credit an explicit baumol 1952 condition emerges that guides this consumer choice deriving and estimating a closed form welfare cost function in an example economy the paper shows that the welfare cost of inflation depends on the margins of substitution the consumer avoids inflation through costly credit and faces higher welfare costs of inflation than in standard cash in advance economies

an overview of the driving forces behind energy demand in china s construction industry evidence from 1990 to 2012 abstract the rapid urbanization in china has produced a large demand for energy in the past decades it is therefore urgent to have an understanding of the driving forces behind the energy increase in the construction industry this study applies structural decomposition analysis sda to quantify the effects of driving factors from insight into consumption and production the results show that the energy consumption trajectory of china s construction industry is the result of competition between the effect of increasing final demand and improvement in energy efficiency although the effect of consistent efforts in structure optimization by the central government was significant from 2007 to 2012 the potential to save much energy still lies in structure optimization in energy production and final demand according to the projection structural upgrades in economy would be the most important factor for energy reduction in 2020 scenario analysis further indicated that the percentage change of energy increments in 2020 can be reduced at 22 of 2010 level under the optimistic scenario sector aggregation analysis revealed that more aggregates would increase uncertainty to some extent and result in a misinterpretation of the importance of the underlying factors according to the quantitative analysis in this study the percentage change of total embodied energy consumption in the construction industry should be limited below 25 of 2010 level at the end of the 13th five year plan

the dollarization of latin america as a market enforced monetary reform evidence and implications monetary reforms are a response to past and present monetary conditions yet what happens when public confidence in the domestic currency is eroded but the government does not declare an official monetary reform it is likely that the public will substitute away from the low confidence domestic currency into a high confidence foreign currency to the extent that such substitutions are possible in other words as confidence in the domestic money declines money demanders will tend to substitute away from domestic money in favor of foreign money this is in effect a market based monetary reform on the demand side in place of an official supply side monetary reform this paper will consider such demand side substitutability in latin america and the official response monetary historians have chronicled many instances of monetary reform when an existing low confidence currency is replaced by a new monetary unit while historical episodes differ in regard to social and political circumstances it is safe to say that the economic circumstances leading to reform can be traced to a high and unstable rate of growth of the money supply for instance on september 29 1975 chile replaced the escudo with the chilean peso where one peso was defined as being equal to 1 000 escudos the chilean money supply had grown at an annual rate of 121 from 1971 to the time of the reform argentina introduced a new monetary unit the peso argentino on june 1 1983 where one new peso argentino was defined as being equal to 10 000 old pesos the argentine money supply had grown at an annual rate of 85 since 1979 these growth rates prior to monetary reform are substantially higher than the average latin american money growth rate over the 1972 83 period of 40

computers productivity and input substitution i introduction the last two decades has been a puzzling time for many productivity analysts while computer prices fell at extraordinary rates and firms invested hundreds of billions of dollars in new computer equipment aggregate productivity growth remained sluggish this computer productivity paradox has generated a large literature that examines the economic impact of the computer revolution 1 this paper offers a simple solution to the computer productivity paradox by making careful distinction between computers as an output from one sector and an input to other sectors data for 35 manufacturing and service sectors for 1947 1991 show that sectoral differences are crucial in understanding the impact of computers aggregate analysis is inappropriate since it obscures basic distinctions between a shifting production function in the computer producing sector multi factor productivity growth and movements along production functions in the computer using sectors substitution and capital accumulation once these differences are isolated the growth impact of computers is readily observable the computer producing sector experienced fundamental technological progress and now produces cheaper better computers the sectoral data show this as rapid multi factor productivity mfp growth for 1973 1991 although aggregate mfp growth remains below historic averages the computer producing sector has clearly done its part mfp growth in this sector is many times the economy average and has contributed over one third of aggregate mfp growth for 19811991 the sectoral detail shows that the slowdown in aggregate productivity would have been much more severe were it not for such large mfp gains in the computer producing sector for the other sectors of the economy computers affect growth in a more traditional although less glamorous way when the price of real computing power fell so dramatically in the 1970s and 1980s firms responded by substituting away from relatively expensive labor and non computer capital and investing heavily in cheap computers for these sectors the computer revolution affects output growth not by raising mfp but by inducing firms to accumulate computers at extraordinary rates real computer services for example grew in excess of 20 per year in 14 out of 35 sectors for 1973 1991 although virtually all sectors are rapidly accumulating computer equipment computers remain small in levels in 1991 for example computer investment was only 10 of private fixed investment so the growth contribution of computers remains small relative to sectoral aggregates of labor and non computer capital the rapid rates of accumulation however are clearly making computers a more important source of growth across sectors with this heavy investment also came the wide spread expectation that computers would fundamentally alter the way firms operate and lead to higher mfp the reality has been very different as the most computer intensive sectors show steep declines in mfp growth after 1973 with three quarters of all computers concentrated in three service sectors trade fire and other services however this finding must be interpreted with caution as griliches 1994 notes output in these sectors is largely unmeasurable and thus mfp growth will be understated nonetheless it is quite reasonable that even computer using sectors where output is easier to measure show no mfp gains computer investment creates a capital input that enters the production function like any other purchased input since constant quality deflators embody productivity improvements in investment the direct impact is seen through the rapid capital accumulation only if the adoption of computers leads to production externalities or spillovers would computer investment also increase mfp growth the data however show no evidence of this ii computers and growth the national statistics most clearly show the computer revolution in the investment data

dirty industries patterns of change in industrial countries this article concerns itself with the environmental role of heavily polluting industries since 1970 analysing its development in 11 basic industries as well as electricity production and road transport in 32 industrial countries it argues for a green industrial policy demonstrating that other mitigations of environmental pressure in industrial countries end of pipe treatment relocation to the third world structural change in the industrial sector and even environmentally oriented modernization have so far been unable to solve the problems of dirty industries although some approaches have shown some promise

dollar currency in latin america a bolivian application abstract the stock of u s dollar currency held in bolivia is estimated using two alternative methods incorporating estimated dollar currency balances in m 2 results in more reasonable movements in velocity than the unbelievable gyrations in official velocity

money and interest in a cash in advance economy the authors analyze an aggregative general equilibrium model in which the use of money is motivated by a cash in advance constraint applied to purchases of a subset of consumption goods the system is subject to both real and monetary shocks which are economy wide and observed by all they develop methods for verifying the existence of characterizing and explicitly calculating equilibria copyright 1987 by the econometric society

do negative random shocks affect trust and trustworthiness we report data from a variation of the trust game aimed at determining whether and how inequality and random shocks that affect wealth influence the levels of trust and trustworthiness to tease apart the effect of the shock and the inequality we compare behavior in a trust game where the inequality is initially given and one where it is the result of a random shock that reduces the second mover s endowment we find that first movers send less to second movers but only when the inequality results from a random shock as for the amount returned second movers return less when they are endowed less than first movers regardless of whether the difference in endowments was initially given or occurred after a random shock

anticipated inflation and the capital stock in a cash in advance economy abstract an economy is constructed in which the steady state capital stock is inversely related to the rate of inflation as a result that is directly opposite the usual conclusion

dutch sectoral energy intensity developments in international perspective 1987 2005 this paper makes use of a new dataset to investigate energy intensity developments in the netherlands over the period 1987 2005 the dataset allows for a comparison with 18 other oecd countries a key feature of our analysis is that we combine a cross country perspective with a high level of sectoral detail covering 49 sectors particularly innovative is our evaluation of energy intensity developments in a wide range of service sectors we find that across sectors energy intensity levels in the netherlands on average decreased only marginally and increased in services this performance is in general worse than the oecd average especially between 1987 and 1995 changes in the sectoral composition of the economy play an important role in explaining aggregate trends in the manufacturing sector about half of the efficiency improvements were undone by a shift towards a more energy intensive industry structure in contrast in the service sector efficiency decreased which was undone for about one third by a shift towards a less energy intensive sector structure

underlying trends and seasonality in uk energy demand a sectoral analysis this paper demonstrates the importance for energy demand modelling of allowing for trends and seasonal effects that are stochastic in form inherent underlying trends may be non linear and reflect not only technical progress which usually produces greater energy efficiency but also other factors such as changes in consumer tastes and the economic structure that may be working in the opposite direction using quarterly unadjusted data for various sectors in the uk it is shown that unless energy demand models are formulated so as to allow for stochastic trends and seasonals estimates of price and income elasticities could be seriously biased

energy intensity in the iron and steel industry a comparison of physical and economic indicators abstract energy consumption of the iron and steel industry is examined in seven countries brazil china france germany japan poland and the united states for the period 1980 1991 using a decomposition analysis based on physical indicators for process type and product mix we decompose intra sectoral structural changes and efficiency improvements specific energy consumption decreased in all countries except poland efficiency improvement played a key role in brazil china germany and the us while structural changes were the main driver for energy savings in france and japan we also compare the use of various economic indicators to physical indicators and find that they do not track physical developments well in poland or the developing countries we studied in the industrialized countries value added based energy intensity indicators generally reflect the specific energy consumption better than other economic indicators although large differences occur in individual years we found a smaller correlation between other economic indicators gross output and value of shipments and specific energy consumption we conclude that use of physical energy intensity indicators improves comparability between countries provides greater information for policy makers regarding intra sectoral structural changes and provides detailed explanations for observed changes in energy intensity

structural change and convergence of energy intensity across oecd countries 1970 2005 abstract this paper uses new and unique data derived from a consistent framework of national accounts to compute and evaluate energy intensity developments across 18 oecd countries and 50 sectors over the period 1970 2005 we find that across countries energy intensity levels tend to decrease in most manufacturing sectors in the service sector energy intensity decreases at a relatively slow rate with diverse trends across sub sectors a decomposition analysis reveals that changes in the sectoral composition of the economy explain a considerable and increasing part of aggregate energy intensity dynamics a convergence analysis reveals that only after 1995 cross country variation in aggregate energy intensity levels clearly tends to decrease driven by a strong and robust trend break in manufacturing and enhanced convergence in services moreover we find evidence for the hypothesis that across sectors lagging countries are catching up with leading countries with rates of convergence that are on average higher in services than in manufacturing aggregate convergence patterns are almost exclusively caused by convergence of within sector energy intensity levels and not by convergence of the sectoral composition of economies

the welfare effect of access to credit i present a model in which credit and outside money can be used as means of payment in order to analyze how access to credit aects welfare when credit markets feature limited participation allowing more agents to use credit has an ambiguous eect on welfare because it may make consumption risk sharing more ine cient i calibrate the model using u s data on credit card transactions and show that the increase in access to credit from 1990 to the near present has had a slightly negative impact on welfare

changes in carbon intensity in china empirical findings from 1980 2003 china experienced sustainable rapid economic growth over the period 1980 2003 but at the same time energy related carbon intensity showed a downward trend it begs the question therefore what factors were driving this decline in carbon intensity and will this decline be maintained in future moreover what measures can be adopted to ensure a continual decline in carbon intensity these questions led to increased research in the factors governing co2 emission in china this paper quantifies the driving force behind china s primary energy related carbon intensity and measures the material production sectors final energy related carbon intensity our results show that the overwhelming contributor to the decline of energy related carbon intensity was the reduction in real energy intensity however policies that focus only on the decline in energy intensity are insufficient to further decrease carbon intensity the change of primary energy mix can improve the decline of carbon intensity this should focus on the material production sectors development strategies and final energy use greater emphasis should be given to secondary industry which needs national and regional governments policy support

structural change and energy use the case of the manufacturing sector in taiwan abstract this paper examines the role of sectoral shift and improvements in energy intensity of individual industries in aggregate manufacturing sector energy intensity changes in taiwan during 1971 1985 the divisia index approach is employed to decompose sectoral shift and energy intensity effects a major finding of this analysis is that changes in energy intensities of individual industries were the main influence in changes in aggregate manufacturing sector fuel and electricity intensities during the period sectoral shifts were found to contribute very little to the energy intensity changes

measuring trust a reinvestigation we reinvestigate the question first posed by glaeser et al 2000 do survey measures about trust predict actual trusting behavior this important study established that the behavior in an incentivized trust game is not correlated with the responses to the most widely used survey measures of trust we conduct a replication and a reinvestigation of glss in the replication we use the glss protocol and we reproduce their results in the reinvestigation we introduce one major change we replace their variation of the standard berg dickhaut and mccabe 1995 investment game with the original unmodified game the standard game endows both players while the modified version endows only the first mover after endowing both movers in the reinvestigation experiment we find a significant correlation between the two measures suggesting that trust is a single construct whether measured by the survey questions or by an incentivized trust game

environment adjusted total factor energy efficiency of taiwan s service sectors this study computes the pure technical efficiency pte and energy saving target of taiwan s service sectors during 2001 2008 by using the input oriented data envelopment analysis dea approach with the assumption of a variable returns to scale vrs situation this paper further investigates the effects of industry characteristics on the energy saving target by applying the four stage dea proposed by fried et al 1999 we also calculate the pre adjusted and environment adjusted total factor energy efficiency tfee scores in these service sectors there are three inputs labor capital stock and energy consumption and a single output real gdp in the dea model the most energy efficient service sector is finance insurance and real estate which has an average tfee of 0 994 and an environment adjusted tfee eatfee of 0 807 the study utilizes the panel data random effects tobit regression model with the energy saving target est as the dependent variable those service industries with a larger gdp output have greater excess use of energy the capital labor ratio has a significantly positive effect while the time trend variable has a significantly negative impact on the est suggesting that future new capital investment should also be accompanied with energy saving technology in the service sectors

contagious energy prices we develop an empirical model of the determinants of end use energy prices in 28 organisation for economic co operation and development countries for this we construct a unique panel data set and formulate a spatial panel econometric model with fixed country effects for the period of 1980 2009 a special feature of the proposed empirical model is that cross country interdependence in energy prices surfaces through two channels a metric of similarity towards energy policy and a metric of trade in energy goods we estimate the parameters of that model and conduct several comparative static experiments we find that higher income per capita and lower efficiency in energy distribution tend to raise energy prices whereas higher net imports of energy and more abundant energy resource endowments reduce them we also find that bilateral trade in energy goods is an important channel of transmission of shocks in energy prices across countries the estimation results suggest that countries that use the same types of resources to generate energy are likely to transmit energy price shocks to each other through competition effects

decomposition analysis for assessing the progress in decoupling industrial growth from co2 emissions in the eu manufacturing sector decomposition analysis is used in this paper not only to explain changes in industrial co2 emissions but also to comparatively evaluate the progress made in 14 eu countries in decoupling emissions from industrial growth the analysis is performed for the period 1990 2003 by distinguishing two time intervals for assessing progress prior to and following the agreement on the kyoto protocol the refined laspeyres model is used to determine the impact of 5 explanatory factors output energy intensity structure fuel mix and utility mix the obtained results are further elaborated in order to assess the real efforts undertaken in each country and their effectiveness in dissociating the economic and environmental dimensions of development moreover a rescaling procedure is implemented in order to adjust efforts to the average progress in the eu and proceed to a fair comparative evaluation it is found that most eu countries made a considerable but not always sufficient decoupling effort while no significant acceleration is observed in the post kyoto period

the welfare cost of inflation in general equilibrium abstract this paper presents a general equilibrium monetary model in which inflation distorts a variety of marginal decisions although individually none of the distortions is very large they combine to yield substantial welfare cost estimates a sustained 4 percent inflation like that experienced in the us since 1983 costs the economy the equivalent of 0 41 percent of output per year when currency is identified as the relevant definition of money and over 1 percent of output per year when m1 is defined as money the results illustrate how the traditional partial equilibrium approach can seriously underestimate the true cost of inflation

the decomposition of co2 emissions from energy use in greece before and during the economic crisis and their decoupling from economic growth abstract greece recorded a significant decline in co 2 emissions from energy use from 2003 to 2013 accompanied by a reduction in energy consumption particularly during the economic recession this study attempts to identify the driving forces of co 2 emissions related to energy consumption through the use of the complete decomposition technique developed by jw sun the decomposition analysis focuses on the four factors responsible for co 2 emissions the carbon intensity effect the energy intensity effect the structural effect and the economic activity effect the analysis covers all the major productive sectors of the greek economy the study covers the period 2003 2013 and is divided into two subperiods 2003 2008 and 2008 2013 in order to assess changes in the contribution of the examined factors during the economic crisis 2008 2013 the analysis is extended to examine the decoupling relationship between co 2 emissions and economic growth in greece with the use of the decoupling index

industry energy use and structural change a case study of the people s republic of china abstract this paper examines the effects of structural change and improvements in energy intensities of individual industries in aggregate industry energy intensity changes in china during 1980 88 the divisia index is used to decompose the energy intensity effect and structural effect a major finding of this analysis is that the main contribution to changed aggregate energy intensity was from the changes in energy intensities of individual industries during the period structural effects were found to contribute little to the aggregate energy intensity changes

energy use in a transitional economy the case of poland abstract this paper provides a sectoral analysis of how energy use has changed in poland since the 1970s with particular emphasis on changes since the country began its transition from a centrally planned to a market economy in 1990 total final energy use in 1991 was 25 below that in 1988 and the lowest since the mid 1970s the most important factors behind the large decline in polish energy use in 1990 were a sharp fall in industrial output and a huge drop in residential coal use driven by higher prices energy use declined by only 2 in 1991 which was less than the fall in gdp of 8 key factors that lessened the decrease in energy use after 1989 were a rise in energy intensity in many heavy industries and a shift toward greater use of cars and trucks in passenger and freight transport higher energy prices have had an evident impact on residential coal use but in industry there was relatively little sign of energy conservation in 1991

inflation and financial sector size abstract traditionally the cost of expected inflation has been seen as the shoeleather cost of going to the bank more often this paper focuses on the other side of these transactions i e on the increased production of financial services i construct a model in which households must make purchases either with money or with costly transactions services produced by firms in the financial services sector in the model a higher inflation rate leads households to substitute purchased transactions services for money balances thereby boosting the size of the financial services sector a test of the model using cross sectional data finds that the size of a nation s financial sector is strongly affected by its inflation rate the empirical results provide an alternative way to measure the costs of inflation these costs appear to be large

factorial decomposition of co2 emissions a generalized divisia index approach abstract this paper introduces a novel approach to estimating the impact of the major factors driving co 2 emissions gdp energy consumption population their carbon intensities and other related indicators that may be chosen arbitrarily the suggested approach is based on the generalization of the divisia index to interconnected factors the approach also extends the kaya identity by explicitly including gross domestic product and energy consumption a computer program in r language aimed at automating the calculations is supplied factorial analysis of the united states and china s co 2 emissions is provided as an example of application

manufacturing energy use in eight oecd countries decomposing the impacts of changes in output industry structure and energy intensity this paper examines trends in manufacturing energy use in eight oecd countries decomposing the changes that occured between 1973 and 1987 into the effects of changes in aggregate manufacturing activity industry structure and energy intensities measured at the industry group level while manufacturing production grew in every country except the uk the rate of growth was variable from nation to nation structural change led to modest reductions in energy use in most countries although in norway structural change led to substantial growth in energy use the reduction in energy intensities was strikingly uniform across all nations ranging from 20 norway to 36 japan over the period of the analysis while other studies have used divisia decomposition techniques we use an alternative method based on laspeyres indices a comparison of the two techniques shows that they yield closely similar empirical results although the laspeyres approach is more easily interpreted while the interactions between changes in structure and intensity are arbitrarily assigned to the two factors by the divisia approach the lapeyres method yields interaction terms that explicitly account for such effects

asean tigers and sustainability of energy use decomposition analysis of energy and co2 efficiency dynamics abstract this study is a comparative analysis of the development of energy intensity and co2 emission intensity in the asean countries in the years 1971 97 the reasons and driving forces behind the changes are studied in the article using a complete decomposition methodology the decomposition analysis explains energy use or co2 emissions with three different factors activity effect structural effect and intensity effect the authors provide an analysis of dynamic changes of energy consumption and co2 emission flows intensity effects on energy use and co2 emissions revealed large differences in the performance of asean countries an interesting finding of the study is that in the 1990s the intensity effects on co2 emissions in asean countries have started to increase indicating decreasing co2 efficiencies of the economies the general observation on the basis of decomposition analyses is that the phase of industrialization is increasing the energy intensity of the nations and when the increased energy demand is fulfilled with fossil fuels the co2 emissions will inevitable grow however it has to be recognized that the co2 emissions per capita in asean countries are very low except in singapore compared with many oecd countries