turning lights into flights estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for uk households energy efficiency improvements by households lead to rebound effects that offset the potential energy and emissions savings direct rebound effects result from increased demand for cheaper energy services while indirect rebound effects result from increased demand for other goods and services that also require energy to provide research to date has focused upon the former but both are important for climate change this study estimates the combined direct and indirect rebound effects from seven measures that improve the energy efficiency of uk dwellings the methodology is based upon estimates of the income elasticity and greenhouse gas ghg intensity of 16 categories of household goods and services and allows for the embodied emissions of the energy efficiency measures themselves as well as the capital cost of the measures rebound effects are measured in ghg terms and relate to the adoption of these measures by an average uk household the study finds that the rebound effects from these measures are typically in the range 5 15 and arise mostly from indirect effects this is largely because expenditure on gas and electricity is more ghg intensive than expenditure on other goods and services however the anticipated shift towards a low carbon electricity system in the uk may lead to much larger rebound effects

international oil shocks and household consumption in china abstract we investigate the impacts that oil price shocks have on residential consumption in china while it is well understood that oil prices affect consumption in a multitude of ways the timing and directness of these effects on specific consumption categories is not clear we demonstrate that the most immediate and direct effect passes through transportation consumption as might be expected but we also show that significant effects pass through consumption in other sectors including food and clothes medical expenditure and other general living expenditure with less immediacy given the results particularly observed asymmetries with respect to rises and falls in international oil prices we discuss some implications for future adjustments to domestic price policies in particular the case for removal of domestic price regulation

how does increased corn ethanol production affect us natural gas prices abstract in recent years there has been a push to increase biofuel production in the united states the biofuel of choice so far has been ethanol produced from corn the effects of increased corn ethanol production on the consumer prices of food and energy continue to be studied and debated this study examines in particular the effects of increased corn ethanol production on us natural gas prices a structural model of the natural gas market is developed and estimated using two stage least squares a baseline projection for the period 2007 2018 is determined and two scenarios are simulated in the first scenario current biofuel policies including eisa mandates tariffs and tax credits are removed in the second scenario we hold ethanol production to the level required only for largely obligatory additive use the results indicate that the increased level of corn ethanol production occurring as a result of the current us biofuel policies may lead to natural gas prices that are as much as 0 25 higher on average than if no biofuel policies were in place a similar comparison between the baseline and second scenario indicates natural gas prices could be as much as 0 5 higher on average for the same period

direct rebound effect of residential gas demand empirical evidence from france abstract energy policymakers are increasingly concerned about energy efficiency improvements as such improvements are considered to be a key strategy in reducing energy demand in the residential sector however energy efficiency investments may not yield the expected energy savings due to the rebound effect concept which leads to lower savings than expected when energy efficiency increases using the standard ols regression and autoregressive distributed lag cointegration ardl approach this paper provides estimates of the magnitude of the rebound effect for residential gas consumption in france using 1983 2015 annual time series data the methodology is based on estimates of the gas demand elasticity with respect to service price the empirical findings indicate that the variables used in the model are cointegrated and suggest the presence of an obvious rebound effect in residential gas use more specifically estimates of the direct rebound effect in residential gas demand are approximately 53 in the short run and approximately 60 in the long run our findings reject the hypothesis of a backfire effect regarding residential gas use in france and hence suggest incorporating carbon taxation energy efficiency and alternative energy in the formulation of an energy saving policy to facilitate the transition towards a low carbon economy in france

accounting for asymmetric price responses and underlying energy demand trends in oecd industrial energy demand abstract this paper explores the way technical progress and improvements in energy efficiency are captured when modelling oecd industrial energy demand the industrial sectors of the developed world involve a number of different practices and processes utilising a range of different technologies consequently given the derived demand nature of energy it is vital when modelling industrial energy demand that the impact of technical progress is appropriately captured however the energy economics literature does not give a clear guide on how this can be achieved one strand suggests that technical progress is endogenous via asymmetric price responses whereas another strand suggests that it is exogenous more recently it has been suggested that potentially there is a role for both endogenous technical progress and exogenous technical progress and consequently the general model should be specified accordingly this paper therefore attempts to model oecd industrial energy demand using annual time series data over the period 1962 2010 for 15 oecd countries using the structural time series model framework the general specifications allow for both asymmetric price responses for technical progress to impact endogenously and an underlying energy demand trend for technical progress and other factors to impact exogenously but in a non linear way the results show that almost all of the preferred models for oecd industrial energy demand incorporate both a stochastic underlying energy demand trend and asymmetric price responses this gives estimated long run income elasticities in the range of 0 34 to 0 96 estimated long run price maximum elasticities in the range of 0 06 to 1 22 estimated long run price recovery elasticities in the range of 0 00 to 0 27 and estimated long run price cut elasticities in the range of 0 00 to 0 18 furthermore the analysis suggests that when modelling industrial energy demand there is a place for endogenous technical progress and an exogenous underlying energy demand trend consequently it is argued that any modelling strategy should start by including both and only imposed restrictions if accepted by the data

the increase in brazilian household income and its impact on co2 emissions evidence for 2003 and 2009 from input output tables abstract in recent years brazil has experienced economic growth and a recovery of income that has had a positive impact on the consumption of goods in this paper we evaluate the impact of brazilian household consumption on the co2 emissions for 2003 and 2009 using input output tables from the world input output database we used a semi closed model with eight household groups in order to apply the hypothetical extraction method in the consumption structure of each group further we use the result from the hypothetical extraction to evaluate the impacts of the structure consumption of each household group in terms of co2 emissions we find that there is a trade off between the households greater satisfaction from consumption and the increasing setback in emissions from the restructuring and modification of the consumption basket thus this study contributes to the research on emissions by mapping the recent behavior of the brazilian economy in terms of increased income changes in the consumption structure and their impacts on emissions the paper s aggregated results by income and consumption structure based on the intensity of the emissions and their systemic effects add to the discussions on less polluting production processes more conscious consumption of goods and more rational uses of energy and transportation

energy demand in ghana a disaggregated analysis this paper presents a comprehensive analysis of energy demand in ghana by estimating demand functions for key disaggregated energy components including gasoline diesel liquefied petroleum gas lpg kerosene biomass residual fuel oil rfo and electricity our results show that energy prices income urbanization and economic structure are significant demand drivers of the different energy types in ghana with varying estimated elasticities further there is evidence of high degree of inter fuel substitution in energy demand in ghana particularly from gasoline diesel and kerosene towards lpg consumption we recommend among different policy options a customization of energy price subsidization policies especially on lpg to reduce the unintended beneficiary dilemma or spillover effect of current government policy other policies such as intensification of energy conservation programs and market entry of independent power trading companies to enhance energy service delivery through competition are also discussed

us demilitarization and global warming an empirical investigation of the environmental peace dividend abstract in the paper input output methods are used to generate ballpark empirical estimates of the implications for global warming of the projected demilitarization of the us federal budget the impact is found to be qualitatively ambiguous and highly sensitive to the manner in which the funds saved are distributed the effect is adverse where the budgetary savings are used to fund economy wide cuts in personal taxation and or deficit reduction in other cases the effect may be neutral or beneficial

a green energy plan for denmark several political regulation instruments such as co2 taxes have been suggested to implement co2 reduction policies but normally the cost of implementing co2 reduction policies is considered to be a threat to both economic growth and employment but to some extent strategies can be developed which implement co2 reduction goals by creating jobs and such strategies could help economic growth

the relationship between regional natural gas markets and crude oil markets from a multi scale nonlinear granger causality perspective this study first decomposes the daily returns of regional gas and crude oil at different time scales using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition eemd method it then investigates the causality relationship between each pair of components at the different time scales by employing the linear and nonlinear granger causality tests for the original returns series this study finds that unidirectional linear granger causality exists from crude oil markets to north american and european gas markets however for nonlinear characteristics the crude oil and regional gas markets exhibit bidirectional nonlinear granger causality on the medium term time scale a bidirectional nonlinear spillover effect is found between the markets the long term trends for the markets suggest a significant linear relationship however no nonlinear spillover effect is found between the crude oil and regional gas markets

energy consumption and energy r d in oecd perspectives from oil prices and economic growth abstract we estimate the short run and long run elasticities of various types of energy consumption and energy r d to changes in oil prices and income of the 20 oecd countries over the period of 1980 2010 using the nerlove partial adjustment model npam we find negative income elasticity for coal consumption but positive income elasticity for oil and gas consumption suggesting the importance of economic growth in encouraging the usage of cleaner energy from coal to oil and gas by introducing time dummies into the regressions we show that climatic mitigation policies are able to promote the usage of cleaner energies through the dynamic linkages between energy consumption and energy r d we find that fossil fuel consumption promotes fossil fuel r d and fossil fuel r d in turn drives its own consumption renewable energy r d which is more responsive to economic growth reduces fossil fuel consumption and hence fossil fuel r d

the double dividend second best worlds and real world environmental policy abstract the recent series of papers by bovemberg goulder parry and others argue that the double dividend is unlikely to exist because of second best problems they argue that the imposition of environmental tax in an economy already distorted by income taxes will further distort the economy by reducing incentives to supply labor our paper argues that this is not likely to be the case because of the restrictive assumptions made by these models and because of the role of the environment as a factor of production

the imperfect price reversibility of non transport oil demand in the oecd abstract this paper examines the price reversibility of oecd non transport oil demand and its components residual heavy fuel oil non transport distillates and other non transport oil products our purpose is to determine the extent to which the reductions in demand following the oil price increases of the 1970s have been and will be reversed by the price cuts of the 1980s the analysis is based on an econometric model which utilizes price decomposition methods to measure separately the effects of price increases and price decreases these methods allow empirical testing of irreversibility and hysteresis and should be applicable in other areas of economics where asymmetry of response or persistence of effect are evident based on the statistical evidence we reject the conventional specification of demand being perfectly price reversible we conclude that the response to the price cuts of the 1980s has been significantly smaller than to the price increases of the 1970s demand has followed a ratchet process price increases reduced demand substantially when demanders conserved and switched away from oil but price cuts did not reverse this process completely if at all this has important implications for projections of oil demand especially under low price assumptions the oecd s dependency on oil will not increase as much as some analysts may have feared there is however another aspect of imperfect price reversibility the possibilities of adjusting to future price rises may not be as great as they have been in the past the easiest and least costly demand savings have already been made and oil has been replaced by other energy sources in many uses what s done is done

the importance of engaging residential energy customers hearts and minds abstract in an attempt to reduce the contribution of residential greenhouse gas emissions the eu has implemented a variety of policy measures the focus has been to promote domestic energy efficiency and ultimately a reduction in residential energy demand in this study we estimate residential energy demand using underlying energy demand trend uedt and asymmetric price responses for 14 european oecd countries between 1978 and 2008 our results support the conclusion that policies to reduce residential energy consumption and the consequent emissions need to account for behavioural lifestyle and cultural factors in order to be effective

environmental impacts of changes to healthier diets in europe food consumption causes together with mobility shelter and the use of electrical products most life cycle impacts of consumption meat and dairy are among the highest contributors to environmental impacts from food consumption a healthier diet might have less environmental impacts using the e3iot environmentally extended input output database developed in an eu study on environmental impacts of products eipro this paper estimates the difference in impacts between the european status quo and three simulated diet baskets i e a pattern according to universal dietary recommendations the same pattern with reduced meat consumption and a mediterranean pattern with reduced meat consumption production technologies protein and energy intake were kept constant though this implies just moderate dietary shifts impact reductions of up to 8 were possible in reduced meat scenarios the slightly changed food costs do not lead to significant first order rebound effects second order rebounds were estimated by applying the capri partial equilibrium model this analysis showed that european meat production sector will most likely respond by higher exports to compensate for losses on the domestic meat market higher impact reductions probably would need more drastic diet changes 2011 elsevier b v

environmental taxation and unemployment some evidence on the double dividend hypothesis in europe abstract the employment double dividend hypothesis suggests that an appropriately designed fiscal reform in which emission charges are used to subsidize employers social security contributions may realize at least two relevant policy goals a better quality of the environment and at the same time an increase in employment levels this paper uses a newly developed econometric general equilibrium model for the european union as well as for each member country and presents simulation results up to the year 2010 of the effects of a european carbon tax the revenues from which are recycled to reduce employers social security contributions the results show that recycling carbon tax revenues may provide an employment double dividend only in the short run

analysis of u s residential wood energy consumption 1967 2009 the residential sector consumes about 23 of the energy derived from wood wood energy in the u s an estimated error correction model with data from 1967 to 2009 suggests that residential wood energy consumption has declined by an average 3 per year in response to technological progress urbanization accessibility of non wood energy and other factors associated with a time trend such as increasing income per capita and number of houses but the rising price of non wood energy has had a positive effect on the consumption and offset the downward trend effect in the last decade residential wood energy consumption has also been sensitive to changes in wage rate in both long run and short run but the total estimated wage rate effect since 1967 is negligible wood energy is expected to continue to account for a small share of residential energy consumption unless public policies improve wood energy cost competitiveness relative to non wood energy

does product lifetime extension increase our income at the expense of energy consumption abstract the present paper contributes to modeling a simple social accounting method with cumulative product lifetime distributions and argues how product lifetime extension affects income flow throughout the entire economic system empirical analysis focusing on automobile use ordinary passenger vehicle small passenger vehicle and light passenger vehicle in japan revealed that if all of the additional income gain from product lifetime extension flows into the investment sector a one year lifetime extension during the ten years of the study period 1990 2000 would have led to an increase in income in 2000 amounting to 7 billion yen as well as contributing to savings in energy amounting to 4 10 6 gj that is longer term passenger vehicle use increases income and decreases energy consumption under special cases we also found that in the general case when less than 93 of additional income resulting from vehicle lifetime extension is directed to the investment sector a 1 year automobile lifetime extension increases income at the expense of energy consumption

estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for u s households with input output analysis part 1 theoretical framework abstract this is the first part of a two part paper providing an analytical model of the indirect rebound effect given a direct rebound estimate that integrates consumer demand theory with the embodied energy of household spending from environmentally extended input output analysis the second part applies the model developed in part one to simulate the direct and indirect rebound for the average u s household in terms of primary energy co2e nox and so2 emissions and for energy efficiency investments in electricity natural gas or gasoline services part one provides a critical review of the largely independent economic and industrial ecology literatures on the indirect rebound by studying the two goods case and the n goods case we demonstrate that the indirect rebound is bounded by the consumer budget constraint and inversely related to the direct rebound we also compare the common proportional spending and income elasticity spending assumptions with our model of cross price elasticities including both substitution and income effects for the indirect rebound by assuming zero incremental capital costs and the same embodied energy as conventional technologies for efficient appliances we model an upper bound of the indirect rebound future work should also consider the increase in consumer welfare possible through the rebound effect

what if consumers decided to all go green environmental rebound effects from consumption decisions shifting consumer preferences towards green consumption is promoted by many governments and environmental groups rebound effects which reduce the effectiveness of such actions are estimated for cost saving green consumption choices using australian data cases examined are reduced vehicle use reduced electricity use changing to smaller passenger vehicles and utilising fluorescent lighting it is found that if rebound effects are ignored when evaluating green consumption environmental benefits will be overstated by around 20 for reduced vehicle use and 7 for reduced electricity use rebound effects are higher and environmental benefits lower when more efficient vehicles or lighting are utilised rather than simple conservation actions of forgoing use in addition lower income households have higher rebound effects suggesting that environmental policy directed at changing consumer behaviour is most effective when targeted at high income households an inherent trade off between economic and environmental benefits of green consumption choices is demonstrated the size of the rebound effect and the observed variation with household income is attributed to life cycle analysis lca methodologies associated with the calculation of embodied ghg emissions of consumption goods these results should be therefore be interpreted as the minimum rebound effect to include in policy evaluation

the impact of the north american shale gas revolution on regional natural gas markets evidence from the regime switching model this paper investigates the impact of the north american shale gas revolution on price movement regimes in the north american and european gas markets using the markov regime switching model it then measures price spreads between oil and gas from 1998 to 2015 to identify the impact of the revolution on the relationship between oil and regional gas prices the results show that the typical movement regime of henry hub prices changes from slightly upward to sharply downward in addition the clear seasonal effect of henry hub prices has disappeared after the shale gas revolution the typical movement of national balancing point nbp prices has changed gradually from a sharply upward regime to the alternative regimes between sharply downward and slightly upward tending to follow oil prices this indicates that the shale gas revolution has had little impact on nbp price movement meanwhile henry hub prices have decoupled from wti prices while nbp and brent prices have continued to exhibit a long term equilibrium level around which they have swung in the short time frame since the shale gas revolution pertinent energy policy makers and energy market participants should pay attention to these changes and adjust their trade production and investment strategies accordingly

persistent trade effects of large exchange rate shocks this paper presents a theoretical basis for the argument that large exchange rate shocks such as the 1980s dollar cycle may have persistent effects on trade flows and the equilibrium exchange rate itself we begin with a partial equilibrium model in which large exchange rate fluctuations lead to entry or exit decisions that are not reversed when the currency returns to its previous level then we develop a simple model of the feedback from hysteresis in trade to the exchange rate itself here we see that a large capital inflow which leads to an initial appreciation can result in a persistent reduction in the exchange rate consistent with trade balance

electricity demand analysis using cointegration and arima modelling a case study of turkey in the early 2000s the republic of turkey has initiated an ambitious reform program in her electricity market which requires privatization liberalization as well as a radical restructuring the most controversial reason behind or justification for recent reforms has been the rapid electricity demand growth that is to say the whole reform process has been a part of the endeavors to avoid the so called energy crisis using cointegration analysis and autoregressive integrated moving average arima modelling the present article focuses on this issue by both providing an electricity demand estimation and forecast and comparing the results with official projections the study concludes first that consumers respond to price and income changes is quite limited and therefore there is a need for economic regulation in turkish electricity market and second that the current official electricity demand projections highly overestimate the electricity demand which may endanger the development of both a coherent energy policy in general and a healthy electricity market in particular

dynamic multilevel modelling of industrial energy demand in europe previous studies of industry level energy demand have not accounted for the hierarchical nesting of industries within a system that also adequately allows for country specific determinants of energy demand the principal contribution of this paper is therefore to analyse energy demand for european industries over the period 1995 2009 using a dynamic multilevel model that accounts for this hierarchical data structure among other things we find firstly that our dynamic multilevel model suggests that if industry income and the industry energy price increase by 10 long run energy demand will increase by 8 1 and fall by 6 8 respectively secondly we find that the corresponding long run income and price elasticities are substantially larger in a standard dynamic model of industry level energy demand which does not account for the hierarchical data structure our results therefore suggest that not accounting for the hierarchical data structure results in unreliable estimates of energy demand elasticities from a policy perspective we argue that it is imperative that future industry level energy demand studies account for the hierarchical structure of the data this is to prevent energy policy making being based on industry level evidence that substantially inflates the responsiveness of long run energy demand to income and price changes

environmental and social accounting for brazil an environmentally extendedsocial accounting matrix sam has beenconstructed for brazil for the first time wereview in detail previous studies in thisfield describe the construction structure anddata sources of the brazilian sam anddemonstrate the effect of system closure examining a range of type i and type iimultipliers we show that incomes generated byfinal consumption are highly skewed towardsrich households but energy requirements andcarbon emissions are higher for the consumptionof the poor a significant negative correlationexists between employment and income on onehand and energy requirements and carbonemissions on the other while a significantpositive correlation exists between imports and energy and carbon these correlationsdemonstrate that there is scope for policiesthat pursue imports substitution and reduceenergy consumption and carbon emissions whilstincreasing employment and income

externality effects of education dynamics of the adoption and diffusion of an innovation in rural ethiopia abstract this article investigates the role of schooling at the household and community levels in the adoption and diffusion of agricultural innovations in rural ethiopia we find that household level education is important to the timing of adoption but less crucial to the question of whether a household has ever adopted fertilizer since those without schooling may eventually copy the educated community level education substitutes for low levels of household education encouraging uneducated farmers to adopt sooner than would be predicted in the absence of educated neighbors moreover community level education is complementary to household education in determining which farmers will eventually adopt thus evidence is presented to suggest that there are two externality effects educated farmers are early innovators providing an example that may be copied by less educated farmers and educated farmers are better able to copy those who innovate first enhancing diffusion of the new technology more wide

male female differences in agricultural productivity methodological issues and empirical evidence abstract most estimates of male female differences in technical efficiency from production function studies show that male and female farmers are equally efficient farm managers controlling for levels of inputs and human capital there is some evidence however of allocative inefficiency within households marginal products of labor depend on the relative scarcities of labor and the gender division of labor in specific farming systems many of these studies however are methodologically flawed greater attention needs to be given to appropriate estimation methods endogenous input choice the use of headship as a stratifying variable and the implications of intrahousehold resource allocation

education and technical efficiency in small farm production differences in technical efficiency are observed as differences in the physical output produced from a given bundle of physical inputs these differences are not considered in the traditional theory of the firm wherein the output resulting from a particular input bundle is specified as the maximum possible according to the latest technology presupposing technical efficiency the theory of the firm concentrates on allocative efficiency on the choice of the particular input bundle that maximizes profit given prices and the technically efficient production function the best utilization of any particular input combination according to henderson and quandt is a technical not an economic problem 1 economic theory notwithstanding empirical studies of production must take into account differences in the utilization of inputs since in the real world producers are not all equally efficient it is conceptually convenient to divide the output variation observed over a number of firms into two parts one that stems from variation in physical inputs and another that reflects differences in technical efficiency timmer has developed an approach by which to compare the technical efficiency of firms using linear programming he determines the function that relates physical inputs to output for the most efficient of a sample of firms in other words he finds the production surface that is the envelope of all the observation points he calls this function the technical frontier the relative tech

irreversibility and consumer durables expenditures abstract this paper examines the implications of resale market imperfection on consumer durables expenditures the consumer optimization problem under resale market imperfection is formulated and solved numerically by dynamic programming algorithm the obtained decision rules of consumers reveal the slow upward and downward adjustments of durables stock the simulated aggregate durables expenditures with resale market imperfection exhibit substantial serial correlations similar to those found in actual durables expenditures time series the substantial serial correlations are found to be related to the pattern of the decision rules under resale market imperfections

how to define and study farmers management capacity theory and use in agricultural economics textbooks and articles on farm management stress the importance of the management capacity of the farmer with respect to his farm results however explicit definitions together with an elaboration of this concept are hard to find in this article aspects of management capacity are grouped into 1 personal aspects consisting of farmer s drives and motivations farmer s abilities and capabilities and his biographical facts such as age and education and 2 aspects of the decision making process consisting of practices and procedures with respect to planning implementation and control of decisions at the farm empirical studies on the role of management capacity in relation to farm results are reviewed frontier production functions are widely used in recent literature to estimate technical and economic efficiency of farms however in explaining differences in efficiency most studies do not go further than adding a biographical variable e g level of education this study concludes that a next step would be to include aspects of the decision making process longitudinal on farm observations which give possibilities for studying the dynamic aspects of the decision making are suggested to further analyze the concept of management capacity

integrating sustainable chain management with triple bottom line accounting abstract triple bottom line accounting is widely advanced as a way in which firms can realise broader societal objectives in addition to increasing shareholder value in our analysis of the australian economy we integrate financial input output tables that describe the interdependencies between economic sectors with national social and environmental accounts to construct numerate triple bottom line accounts for 135 discrete sectors the accounts are portrayed against the numeraire of one dollar of gdp thus for a sector of the economy financial aspects of performance can be expressed for example as dollars of export earnings per dollar of gdp social aspects such as employment can be portrayed as minutes of employment generated per dollar greenhouse issues can be portrayed as kilograms of carbon dioxide emitted per dollar since these indicators of triple bottom line performance are referenced against financial units and are consistent with the system of national accounts they can be applied to financial accounts of a firm a service or a product and allow a robust triple bottom line account to be developed across a range of scales the critical advantage of this approach is that it includes both the direct or immediate effects as well as the indirect or diffuse effects associated with a large and distant chain of supply paths the incorporation of most indirect or upstream effects therefore expands the range of issues and effects within the analytical boundary and also includes imports and exports both products and firms can then be assessed properly in sustainable chain management scm terms thus a firm that uses a key intermediate input that requires a large amount of water for example cannot hide the environmental implications since they are revealed in the analysis of the full production chain this revelation can also underpin progress when firms acknowledge both the direct and indirect effects and improve their selection of key inputs on a wider range of criteria rather than on price alone our analysis is well developed at the economic sector level for australia and is also being applied to number of government institutions firms and individual products before the full benefits of numerate triple bottom line accounting can be applied to the equity issues of globalisation trade interdependencies between groups of typical countries will have to be analysed using these whole economy approaches this will allow country specific intensities to be applied to important items in the international production chain

empirical estimates of the direct rebound effect a review beginning with william stanley jevons in 1865 a number of authors have claimed that economically justified energy efficiency improvements will increase rather than reduce energy consumption jevons paradox is extremely difficult to test empirically but could have profound implications for energy and climate policy this paper summarises and critiques the arguments and evidence that have been cited in support of jevons paradox focusing in particular on the work of len brookes and harry saunders it identifies some empirical and theoretical weaknesses in these arguments highlights the questions they raise for economic orthodoxy and points to some interesting parallels between these arguments and those used by the biophysical school of ecological economics while the evidence in favour of jevons paradox is far from conclusive it does suggest that economy wide rebound effects are larger than is conventionally assumed and that energy plays a more important role in driving productivity improvements and economic growth than is conventionally assumed 2008 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

natural gas vs oil in u s transportation will prices confer an advantage to natural gas abstract the u s energy information administration eia projects that u s natural gas prices will provide a substantial cost advantage over petroleum products as a transportation fuel during the next 30 years although u s natural gas prices closely tracked those of world oil prices from the mid 1990s to early 2009 u s natural gas prices have been much lower relative to those for oil since early 2009 the break owes to technological change that substantially increased the supply of u s shale gas resources although recent weakness in world oil prices has restored at least some temporary comparability between u s natural gas prices and those for petroleum products eia projects u s natural gas prices will rise more slowly as world oil prices recover relatively weaker gains in u s natural gas prices would support the substitution of natural gas for other fuels such as petroleum products in transportation whether such substitution is driven by business or policy decisions will u s natural gas prices be sustainably lower relative to those for petroleum products so as to support the increased use of natural gas in the transportation sector an interpretative review of current market developments and recent research finds the answer is yes

plant level productivity efficiency and environmental performance of the container glass industry this paper presents a methodology and empirical results based on themalmquist productivity index we measure productivity while treatingpollution as an undesirable output our estimates show that technicalchange has contributed to productivity and environmental performancegrowth in the container glass industry an energy and pollution intensivesector changes in inter plant efficiency over time have made thisproductivity growth more rapid than otherwise would have occurred withthe underlying technical change the efficiency estimates show that thereare both opportunities to improve productivity and reduce pollution in thisindustry as well as productivity losses associated with the emissionscontrol the shadow prices for nox the undesirable output we analyze is quite high compared to other regulated sectors

the responsibility for carbon emissions and carbon efficiency at the sectoral level evidence from china this work reviews benefit based principles to measuring responsibility for carbon emissions at the sectoral level using environmental input output analysis several new emissions multipliers are proposed to measure sectoral carbon efficiency these principles are used in an empirical analysis of carbon emissions in china and differences between the principles are compared the results indicate that all principles considered can prevent double counting of emissions but that different principles may lead to significantly different attributions of responsibility for carbon emissions and to different multiplier values for particular sectors electricity and heat supply is found to be the sector with the highest emissions responsibility under all but the consumer responsibility principle as well as the highest carbon multiplier under all principles however this sector s responsibility under producer responsibility principles is greater than that under other principles basic metals and transportation and post and telecommunication are among the top five sectors with the greatest responsibilities under all but the consumer responsibility principle whereas construction has the highest consumer responsibility among all sectors the pros and cons and policy implications of each principle are also discussed

living up to expectations estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for uk households this study estimates the combined direct and indirect rebound effects from various types of energy efficiency improvement by uk households in contrast to most studies of this topic we base our estimates on cross price elasticities and therefore capture both the income and substitution effects of energy efficiency improvements our approach involves estimating a household demand model to obtain price and expenditure elasticities of different goods and services utilising a multiregional input output model to estimate the ghg emission intensities of those goods and services combining the two to estimate direct and indirect rebound effects and decomposing those effects to reveal the relative contribution of different mechanisms and commodities we estimate that the total rebound effects are 41 for measures that improve the efficiency of domestic gas use 48 for electricity use and 78 for vehicle fuel use the primary source of this rebound is increased consumption of the cheaper energy service i e direct rebound and this is primarily driven by substitution effects our results suggest that the neglect of substitution effects may have led prior research to underestimate the total rebound effect however we provide a number of caveats to this conclusion as well as indicating priorities for future research

primary energy and greenhouse gases embodied in australian final consumption an input output analysis input output modeling of primary energy and greenhouse gas embodiments in goods and services is a useful technique for designing greenhouse gas abatement policies the present paper describes direct and indirect primary energy and greenhouse gas requirements for a given set of australian final consumption it considers sectoral disparities in energy prices capital formation and international trade flows and it accounts for embodiments in the gross national expenditure as well as the gross domestic product primary energy and greenhouse gas intensities in terms of mj and kg co2 e are reported as well as national balances of primary energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions

solow meets leontief economic growth and energy consumption abstract this paper proposes a methodology that integrates a growth model with an input output model to analyze the impacts of economic growth on the consumption of energy the integration between the models is carried out by calibrating the growth module which incorporates energetic inputs renewable and nonrenewable in the production function and implementing shocks by the supply side capital labor renewable and nonrenewable energy in the input output model this allows us to verify the pattern of energy consumption for each sector in the input output matrix we apply this methodology to study the energy consumption of eleven economic sectors in brazil using data from the brazilian national accounts and input output matrix ibge and the national energy report ben we conduct experiments involving changes in technological progress growth rate extraction and regeneration rates of both renewable and nonrenewable resources and population growth to analyze the impact of changes in the parameters of the model on the sectoral output growth rate and consequently on the consumption of energy in each economic sector

a new approach to measuring the rebound effect associated to energy efficiency improvements an application to the us residential energy demand this paper brings attention to the fact that the energy demand frontier model introduced by filippini and hunt 2011 2012 is closely connected to the measurement of the so called rebound effect associated with improvements in energy efficiency in particular we show that their model implicitly imposes a zero rebound effect which contradicts most of the available empirical evidence on this issue we relax this restrictive assumption through the modelling of a rebound effect function that mitigates or intensifies the effect of an efficiency improvement on energy consumption we illustrate our model with an empirical application that aims to estimate a us frontier residential aggregate energy demand function using panel data for 48 states over the period 1995 to 2011 average values of the rebound effect in the range of 56 80 are found therefore policymakers should be aware that most of the expected energy reduction from efficiency improvements may not be achieved

hyteresis in import prices the beachhead effect this paper shows that temporary real exchange rate fluctuations can have persistent hysteretic effects on trade specifically when market entry costs are sunk sufficiently large exchange rate shocks alter domestic market structure and thereby induce hysteresis this simple result has strong implications for exchange rate theory t rade policy and estimation of trade equations empirical evidence su ggests that the recent dollar overvaluation induced hysteresis in u s import prices namely the aggregate pass through equation of exchange rates to import prices shifted in the 1980s the shift s nature and timing is broadly consistent with the hysteresis hypothesis copyright 1988 by american economic association

asymmetric price responses and the underlying energy demand trend are they substitutes or complements evidence from modelling oecd aggregate energy demand abstract a number of energy demand studies have considered the importance of modelling asymmetric price responses apr for example the often cited work of gately and huntington 2002 griffin and schulman 2005 questioned the asymmetric approach arguing that this is only capturing energy saving technical progress huntington 2006 however showed that for whole economy aggregate energy and oil demand there is a role statistically for both apr and exogenous energy saving technical change in a separate strand of the literature the idea of the underlying energy demand trend uedt has been developed see for example hunt et al 2003a and 2003b and dimitropoulos et al 2005 they argue that it is important in time series energy demand models to allow for stochastic trends or uedts based upon the structural time series dynamic regression methodology recommended by harvey 1989 1997 this paper attempts to bring these strands of the literature together by proposing a testing procedure for the uedt and apr in energy demand models within both a panel context consistent with the huntington 2006 approach and the structural time series modelling framework a set of tests across a range of specifications using time series and panel data are therefore suggested in order to try and ascertain whether energy saving technical change or the more general uedt and apr are substitutes for each other when modelling energy demand or whether they are actually picking up different influences and are therefore complements using annual whole economy data for 17 oecd countries over the period 1960 2006 the results suggest that for most of the countries the uedt is preferred to apr whereas for another group the uedt and apr are complements and for another group they are substitutes it is argued therefore that energy demand modellers should not assume at the outset that one method is superior to the other moreover wherever possible a general model be it in a time series or panel context that includes a non linear uedt and apr should be initially estimated and only if accepted by the data should symmetry and or a more restrictive uedt be imposed

modelling oecd industrial energy demand asymmetric price responses and energy saving technical change abstract the industrial sector embodies a multifaceted production process consequently modelling the derived demand for energy is a complex issue made all the more difficult by the need to capture the effect of technical progress of the capital stock this paper is an exercise in econometric modelling of industrial energy demand using panel data for 15 oecd countries over the period 1962 2003 exploring the issue of energy saving technical change and asymmetric price responses although difficult to determine precisely it is tentatively concluded that the preferred specification for oecd industrial energy demand incorporates asymmetric price responses but not exogenous energy saving technical change

the rebound effects of switching to vegetarianism a microeconomic analysis of swedish consumption behavior sustainable diets in particular vegetarianism are often promoted as effective measures to reduce our environmental footprint yet few conclusions take full scale behavioral changes into consideration this can be achieved by calculating the indirect environmental rebound effect related to the re spending of expenditure saved during the initial behavioral shift this study aims to quantify the potential energy use and greenhouse gas emission savings and most likely rebound effects related to an average swedish consumer s shift to vegetarianism using household budget survey data it estimates engel curves of 117 consumption goods derives marginal expenditure shares and links these values to environmental intensity indicators results indicate that switching to vegetarianism could save consumers 16 of the energy use and 20 of the greenhouse gas emissions related to their dietary consumption however if they re spend the saved income according to their current preferences they would forego 96 of potential energy savings and 49 of greenhouse gas emission savings these rebound effects are even higher for lower income consumers who tend to re spend on more environmentally intensive goods yet the adverse effect could be tempered by purchasing organic goods or re spending the money on services in order to reduce the environmental impact of consumption it could thus be recommended to not only focus on dietary shifts but rather on the full range of consumer expenditure

allocating ecological footprints to final consumption categories with input output analysis we present and discuss a method that allows the disaggregation of national ecological footprints by economic sector detailed final demand category sub national area or socio economic group this is done by combining existing national footprint accounts with input output analysis calculations in the empirical part are carried out by using supply and use tables for the united kingdom covering the reporting period 2000 ecological footprints are allocated to detailed household consumption activities following the coicop classification system and to a detailed breakdown of capital investment the method presented enables the calculation of comparable ecological footprints on all sub national levels and for different socio economic groups the novelty of the approach lies in the use of input output analysis to re allocate existing footprint accounts in the detail of disaggregation by consumption category and in the expanded use of household expenditure data this extends the potential for applications of the ecological footprint concept and helps to inform scenarios policies and strategies on sustainable consumption the method described in this paper can be applied to every country for which a national footprint account exists and where appropriate economic and environmental accounts are available the approach helps to save time in data collection and improves the consistency between ecological footprint estimates for a particular human society from different researchers for these reasons the suggested methodology includes crucial steps on the way towards a standardisation of ecological footprint accounts

the rebound effect microeconomic definitions limitations and extensions abstract the rebound effect results in part from an increased consumption of energy services following an improvement in the technical efficiency of delivering those services this increased consumption offsets the energy savings that may otherwise be achieved if the rebound effect is sufficiently large it may undermine the rationale for policy measures to encourage energy efficiency the nature and magnitude of the rebound effect is the focus of long running dispute with energy economics this paper brings together previous theoretical work to provide a rigorous definition of the rebound effect to clarify key conceptual issues and to highlight the potential consequences of various assumptions for empirical estimates of the effect the focus is on the direct rebound effect for a single energy service indirect and economy wide rebound effects are not discussed beginning with khazzoom s original definition of the rebound effect we expose the limitations of three simplifying assumptions on which this definition is based first we argue that capital costs form an important part of the total cost of providing energy services and that empirical studies that estimate rebound effects from variations in energy prices are prone to bias second we argue that energy efficiency should be treated as an endogenous variable and that empirical estimates of the rebound effect may need to apply a simultaneous equation model to capture the joint determination of key variables third we explore the implications of the opportunity costs of time in the production of energy services and highlight the consequences for energy use of improved time efficiency the influence of time costs on the rebound effect and the existence of a parallel rebound effect with respect to time each of these considerations serves to highlight the difficulties in obtaining reliable estimates of the rebound effect and the different factors that need to be controlled for we discuss the implications of these findings for econometric studies and argue that several existing studies may overestimate the magnitude of the effect

modeling of industrial energy consumption an introduction and context industrial energy accounts for roughly one third of total global energy consumption and is expected to continue to use a similar share in the foreseeable future however this is one of the hardest end uses to analyze model and forecast the reasons for modeling industrial energy consumption are as varied as the ways in which energy is used in production processes this has led to the application of a broad set of emperical tools from several different disciplines in this article we provide an introduction and context for a compendium or survey of the methods used in this area this special issue of energy economics is designed to provide both newcomers and accomplished researchers with an overview of the current state of development in the are of industrial energy modeling

profits from self employment the case of cote d ivoire abstract in the past self employed workers were often viewed as less productive individuals yet recent research has indicated that the nonagricultural self employed fill a niche in the economy that large industry cannot the goods and services they produce may well be a necessary part of the infrastructure within which large scale industry can flourish this paper examines the productivity of nonagricultural family enterprises in cote d ivoire marginal returns to self employed labor are somewhat less than the wage rate of equivalent salaried workers capital yields extremely high returns in self employment possibly above 100 per month assuming limited access to credit the self employed may do well by establishing enterprises and gaining the large returns to capital that offset the somewhat lower returns to labor

missing carbon reductions exploring rebound and backfire effects in uk households households are expected to play a pivotal role in reducing the uk s greenhouse gas ghg emissions and the uk government is encouraging specific household actions to help meet its targets however due to the rebound effect only a portion of the ghg emission reductions estimated by simple engineering calculations are generally achieved in practice for example replacing short car journeys by walking or cycling reduces consumption of motor fuels but this frees up money that may be spent on for example purchasing extra clothes or flying on vacation alternatively the money may be put into savings since all of these options lead to ghg emissions total ghg savings may be less than anticipated indeed in some instances emissions may increase a phenomenon known as backfire we estimate that the rebound effect for a combination of three abatement actions by uk households is approximately 34 targeting re spending on goods and services with a low ghg intensity reduces this to a minimum of around 12 while re spending on goods and services with a high ghg intensity leads to backfire our study highlights the importance of shifting consumption to lower ghg intensive categories and investing in low carbon investments

economic energy and greenhouse emissions impacts of some consumer choice technology and government outlay options abstract the impacts of selected spending options in the australian economy are determined in terms of energy consumption greenhouse gas emissions and a range of economic parameters six case studies of one current practice and one alternative environmentally motivated spending option are carried out describing consumer choices technologies and government outlays the assessment method is based on input output theory and as such enables both the direct and indirect effects of spending to be quantified in general the results indicate that pro environmental objectives such as reductions in energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions are compatible with broad socio economic benefits such as increases in employment and income and reductions in imports

employment and other macroeconomic benefits of an innovation led climate strategy for the united states abstract climate protection policy and its analysis are pursued in the context of other societal goals among them the maintenance of economic growth and high employment too often however analysis of energy and climate policy does not realistically reflect technological conditions and the dynamics of technological change this tendency unnecessarily associates the decline in energy consumption or carbon emissions with the decline in national economic output or income but there is ample prima facie evidence to the contrary just as in the 19th century when the perceived need to reduce labor inputs as part of the production process spurred labor saving technological progress now the need to reduce energy and pollution costs could spur innovation and diffusion of efficient and clean energy technologies this in turn can increase overall growth in economic productivity energy technology analysts have identified many such existing and near term commercial technologies as well as innovations that can be foreseen beyond the immediate technological horizon which would become widely used if policies were developed to overcome market and institutional barriers this paper presents a macroeconomic analysis for a set of policies that would induce the adoption of more efficient and low carbon technologies and finds that overall employment and economic output could be increased by small amounts while significantly reducing carbon emissions

interdependencies between transport fuel demand efficiency and quality an application to austria abstract this paper focuses on the interdependencies between technical efficiencies and energy demand which are often either treated in isolation or do not get the sufficient attention in the literature more precisely this paper uses technical efficiencies as one crucial determinant of energy demand in order to integrate at least two issues that are usually investigated separately from each other the rebound effect resulting from improved technical efficiencies and the asymmetry of energy demand in this regard our paper sets out a theoretical framework which has the following implications higher efficiency increases service demand first order rebound low fuel prices and higher efficiency increases the demand for quality second order which in turn increases service demand further third order ceteris paribus energy price shocks should increase scrapping rates fuel prices direct the rd those on engine efficiency are irreversible which has the consequence that energy price elasticities depend on the history of energy prices rather than being asymmetrical derived implications are subsequently tested on austrian data in particular the purchasing decision diesel versus gasoline powered cars allows to refute the myth that consumers apply high implicit rates for discounting the future benefit from efficient cars

review of key international demand elasticities for major industrializing economies abstract this paper conducts a selective review of various estimates for energy demand responses focused specially upon lower income industrializing economies rather than richer mature nations it emphasizes recent trends from empirical studies that have been published after 2000 emphasis is placed on the five major emerging or transitional economies in brazil china india mexico and russia although other important nations like chile and south korea are also discussed when studies are available the review focuses attention on the long run responses to changes in prices and income after capital stock turnover has been completed the terminology often refers to elasticities or the percentage change in energy use divided by the percentage change in price or income holding constant all other factors that could influence energy use decisions estimates cover petroleum products natural gas and electricity although the available studies often ignore coal they also include the economy wide impacts real gdp to price changes most studies have focused upon household and transportation use of liquid fuels many fewer studies have investigated fuels used by industry or commerce or for electric generation based upon the available estimates price and income elasticities for liquid fuels are generally less than one unity for many countries and sectors except for the long run income effect for transportation purposes which can range widely by country between 0 24 and 1 75 while averaging 0 94 for all countries

direct rebound effect on urban residential electricity use an empirical study in china abstract though improving energy efficiency is an important approach to decrease the energy consumption the rebound effect caused by technology progress negatively affects the effectiveness of energy efficiency policies this paper empirically investigates direct rebound effect of urban residential electricity use in china using china s 30 provincial government panel data from1996 to 2010 we build a co integration equation and a panel error correction model to analyze the direct rebound effect the results indicate that an obvious rebound effect in the chinese urban residential electricity consumption does exist specifically the long term rebound effect is 0 74 while the short term rebound effect is 0 72 therefore the rebound effect significantly impairs functions of energy efficiency policies for this reason chinese government should take the rebound effect into consideration when formulating energy policies

from ecological footprint to ecological rent an economic indicator for resource constraints abstract this paper takes as a starting point a combination of an input output model with a national ecological footprint account for germany in the spirit of wiedmann et al wiedmann t minx j barrett j wackernagel m 2006 allocating ecological footprints to final consumption categories with input output analysis ecological economics 56 28 48 footprint as well as biocapacity is dealt with at the industry level gross output of each industry and final demand for each industry can then be split up into a share that is reconcilable with biocapacity and another share that corresponds to the ecological deficit the ecological footprint concept is extended in this study by introducing the additional biocapacity necessary for sustaining the given level of economic activity it is assumed that each industry had to rent the corresponding areas and to apply a given technology in order to make this additional land biophysically productive that results in an additional technology for each industry leading to an increase in costs and prices the new price level is directly linked to the share of output that corresponds to biocapacity overshooting which is defined by the ecological deficit economic indicators can be derived by measuring the income difference brought about by the price increase this difference corresponds to a ricardian rent which is due to resource constraints on output growth

short and long run adjustments in u s petroleum consumption long run adjustments in petroleum consumption are not only larger than short run adjustments they may also be motivated by entirely different price events this analysis shows that new price peaks have both short run and long run consumption responses a result that is starkly different than price changes that track previous price paths it also establishes significant trend effects where gasoline and residual fuel oil consumption decline over time the analysis explores these adjustments by establishing long run cointegrating relationships for different petroleum product groupings an important implication is that price increases above historical levels may be providing substantially greater incentives for significant long run demand adjustments than would be the case otherwise

whose education matters in the determination of household income evidence from a developing country the plan of this article is as follows section ii discusses the data used and presents a few descriptive statistics on headship in ghana and labor activities of ghanaian households section iii presents three simple paradigms about whose education matters in regression models of household income this section also describes the composition of household income and proposes the appropriate explanatory variables for estimation section iv describes the estimation methodology consistent estimates for the farm and off farm income functions are obtained by using j l powells censored least absolute deviations estimators standard errors are obtained by using a bootstrap methodology that mimics the two stage sample design section v contains a summary of the estimation results most notably the results suggest that the allocative effect is the largest effect for total income while the productivity effect appears to dominate when considering farming and nonfarming activities separately all specifications of household income and its components reject the use of the minimum level of household schooling as well as the schooling level of the head of the household section vi provides some concluding comments excerpt

comprehensive evaluation of household indirect energy consumption and impacts of alternative energy policies in china by input output analysis abstract households consume a large amount of indirect energy through the consumption of goods and services this fact makes the quantitative analysis of indirect household energy consumption the foundation of energy policy design this paper improves the compilation method of energy input output tables and establishes a sequence of energy input output tables for china based on these tables the indirect energy consumption of both rural and urban households is calculated then with economic data for the year of 2005 the adjusted input output price model is applied to evaluate how the alternative energy policies impact production prices consumption prices and real income of rural and urban households through the mechanism of indirect energy consumption by using electricity as an example this research has practical implications for chinese economy the integration of energy efficiency improvements and energy prices increase serves as a means to achieve both economic and energy conservation goals and may also have a positive effect on residents real income and a minimal effect on production prices

ethanol policy effects on us natural gas prices and quantities debate has raged about the consequences of us corn based ethanol studies sought to identify how much it affected world commodity markets josef schmidhuber 2006 dileep birur thomas hertel and wallace tyner 2008 seth d meyer pat westhoff and wyatt w thompson 2009 the popular press speculated on the potential for growing us ethanol production to drive up world prices with unintended consequences for world food supplies and changes in land use outside the united states possibly leading to increased greenhouse gas emissions angelo gurgel john m reilly and sergey paltsev 2007 martin banse hans van meijl and geert woltjer 2008 but these discussions focus narrowly on one set of related markets namely those for agricultural commodities other studies have estimated that greater ethanol availability reduces gasoline prices to the benefit of us motor fuel consumers xiaoyang wang 2008 xiaodong du and dermot j hayes 2009 we focus on the direct effects on the us natural gas market of us biofuel policies specifically tax credits ethanol tariff and mandates increased ethanol production based on current technologies and policies is likely to lead to greater corn demand and indirectly to more land allocated to growing corn both these activities use natural gas either directly for firing an ethanol plant or indirectly through the fertilizers and other chemical inputs used to grow corn ethanol policy effects on us natural gas prices and quantities

who rebounds most estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for different uk socioeconomic groups this study estimates the combined direct and indirect rebound effects from various types of energy efficiency improvement and behavioural change by uk households and explores how these effects vary with total expenditure the methodology is based upon estimates of the expenditure elasticity and ghg intensity of 16 categories of goods and services and allows for the capital cost and embodied emissions of the energy efficiency measures themselves the study finds that rebound effects in ghg terms are modest 0 32 for measures affecting domestic energy use larger 25 65 for measures affecting vehicle fuel use and very large 66 106 for measures that reduce food waste furthermore measures undertaken by low income households are associated with the largest rebound effects with direct emissions forming a larger proportion of the total rebound effect for those households measures that are subsidised or affect highly taxed energy commodities may be less effective in reducing aggregate emissions these findings highlight the importance of allowing for rebound effects within policy appraisals as well as reinforcing the case for economy wide carbon pricing

farmer education and farm efficiency in nepal the role of schooling extension services and cognitive skills this paper reports on the analysis of data from nepal the farm households surveyed were chosen so that about half were in a region exposed to the newly introduced training and visit t v extension service while the other half were exposed to less intensive traditional extension services thus in addition to providing information on the mechanisms of education s effects on efficiency this study evaluates the impact of t v extension as introduced in nepal our study finds a positive effect of education on efficiency for the three major crops but only with wheat was the effect statistically significant at standard levels there is definite evidence of a threshold level of education 6 years below which education s impact is small and above which the effect is important the effect of education on efficiency is important only for adapting to changing circumstances we found no evidence that education s effects should be attributed even in part to family background correlates or to a measure we had of ability the farmer s numeracy did affect productivity in wheat production our measures of modernity and agricultural knowledge were uncorrelated with efficiency

metaanalisis de las elasticidades ingreso y precio de la demanda de energia algunas implicaciones de politica publica para america latina the aim of this paper is to analyze the variation in empirical estimates of the income and price elasticities of energy demand the evidence presented through a meta analysis allows identification of the weighted average of the income and price elasticities shows that the estimates are very heterogeneous that there is publication bias and that factors such as region energy sector among others affect its volatility the evidence also indicates that income elasticity in latin america is greater than in the oecd countries and that the price elasticity of energy demand is lower in latin america than in the oecd countries therefore continued economic growth in latin america will be accompanied by a growth in energy demand moreover the establishment of a tax in latin america under the current elasticities is less effective and will be insufficient to control the increase in energy consumption

factors influencing adoption of land enhancing technology in the sahel lessons from a case study in niger abstract technical change through the introduction of land enhancing conservation technologies is essential to economic growth in the sahel tobit analysis was used to identify factors that motivate level and intensity of adoption of specific soil and water management technologies the results show that higher percentage of degraded farmland extension education lower risk aversion and the availability of short term profits are important for increasing the adoption and intensity of use of improved tassa and half crescent shaped earthen mounds age and attitudes to differential gains between farm and non farm income showed no influence on adoption three main policy implications emerge from these findings first technologies should be targeted to locations that have large percentages of degraded farmlands the probability of adoption and intensity of use are likely to be high at such locations second there is the need to provide extension education that demonstrates risk reduction capacities of conservation techniques this will make available information capable of stimulating adoption of land enhancing technologies finally policy makers should not seek to target innovations to younger farmers because age has no relationship to adoption of the improved tassa and half crescent shaped earthen mounds lessons from the case study have broad relevance to cropped areas in the sahel

how sensitive to time period sampling is the asymmetric price response specification in energy demand modelling abstract the purpose of this paper is to investigate the criticism that energy demand estimates based on a specific price decomposition are sensitive to the chosen time period used for the estimation to analyse this in a systematic way different time series sample periods are constructed from annual data for 17 oecd countries covering the overall period 1960 to 2008 the specific price decomposition under consideration often used to estimate asymmetric price response models of energy demand separates the impact of prices above the previous maximum of a price recovery below the previous maximum and of a price cut therefore the analysis does not just involve using different time periods instead for each time period investigated a new dataset is constructed and for each dataset the price variable is decomposed in this way an energy demand relationship allowing for asymmetric price responses is therefore estimated for each different sample period and the results suggest that recalculation of the decomposed price variables for each different period does affect the stability of the estimated energy demand responses in contrast a similarly estimated energy demand relationship with symmetric price responses for each different sample period is found to have less instability

sustainability assessment of u s final consumption and investments triple bottom line input output analysis the u s final demand categories such as household consumption private fixed investments government purchases and investments and export of goods and services have a wide range of environmental economic and social impacts analysis of these impacts termed as the triple bottom line tbl stimulated a tremendous interest by policy makers over the last decade therefore current research aims to analyze the tbl of u s final demands from a systems perspective to accomplish this goal the supply and use tables published by the u s bureau of economic analysis are merged with a range of environmental economic and social metrics the results show that household consumption has the largest indirect tbl sustainability impacts compared to other final demand categories with shares that range between 43 and 88 industrial sectors including manufacturing utilities agriculture construction transportation and mining are generally found to be responsible for the highest impacts for most of the environmental impact categories service sectors generally have the highest impacts on the economic and social indicators of sustainability analysis results also indicate that while meeting the household demand agriculture utilities and manufacturing sectors have relatively more environmental impacts than their contributions to gross domestic product gdp whereas service sectors contribute to gdp with a higher share than their environmental burdens furthermore it is envisioned that significant reductions in environmental footprints of u s households can be achieved if environmental policies that aim to reduce the household consumption are also supported with sustainable growth through greener and resource efficient economy

industrial natural gas consumption in the united states an empirical model for evaluating future trends abstract this study develops a statistical model of industrial us natural gas consumption based upon historical data for the 1958 2003 period the model specifically addresses interfuel substitution possibilities and changes in the industrial economic base using a relatively simple approach the framework can be simulated repeatedly with little effort over a range of different conditions it may also provide a valuable input into larger modeling exercises where an organization wants to determine long run natural gas prices based upon supply and demand conditions projections based upon this demand framework indicate that industrial natural gas consumption may grow more slowly over the next 20 yr than being projected by the u s energy information administration eia this conclusion is based upon the assumption that natural gas prices will follow oil prices as they have done over recent decades if natural gas prices should lag well below oil prices as envisioned by the latest eia outlook industrial natural gas consumption should rapidly expand well beyond the levels being projected by eia

demand elasticities in oecd dynamical aspects abstract four models with different lag structures are used to express final energy demand in oecd from 1960 1982 as a function of real gdp and average energy price the income and long run price elasticities are not significantly dependent on the model specification but the koyck lag scheme estimated in its distributed lag form is found to give the most satisfactory results the statistical properties of the data together with evidence of trends in the elasticities both suggest that the period of falling real prices prior to 1971 is not comparable to the present period for the period after 1971 an income elsticity of 1 02 and a long run price elasticity of 0 37 are obtained

backcasting u s oil demand over a turbulent decade abstract this paper compares 10 year backcast projections of u s petroleum consumption for the 2000 2009 period based upon a range of functional forms although a univariate specification based upon only lagged consumption performed better than most approaches it provides little value to the policymaker who wants to understand the factors that influence oil consumption and by how much one structural approach performed considerably better than all other approaches including the univariate model this specification is the autoregressive distributed lag adl model that allowed oil demand to respond differently asymmetrically to price increases and decreases certain forms of this equation however do well while others perform poorly evaluations of backcast projections over different periods and updated frequently can be important byproducts of energy modeling

pricing the european option to switch between two energy sources an application to crude oil and natural gas we consider a firm which can choose between crude oil and natural gas to run its business the firm selects the energy source which minimizes its energy or production costs at a given time horizon assuming the energy strategy to be established over a fixed time window the energy choice decision will be made at a given future date t in this light the firm s energy cost can be considered as a long position in a risk free bond by an amount of the terminal oil price and a short position in a european put option to switch from oil to gas by an amount of the terminal oil price too as a result the option to switch from crude oil to natural gas allows for establishing a hedging strategy with respect to energy costs modeling stochastically the underlying asset of the european put we propose a valuation formula of the option to switch and calibrate the pricing formula to empirical data on a daily basis hence our innovative framework handles widely the hedge against the price increase of any given energy source versus the price of another competing energy source i e minimizing energy costs moreover we provide a price for the cost reducing effect of the capability to switch from one energy source to another one i e hedging energy price risk

labour productivity and energy intensity in australia 1974 87 an input output analysis abstract energy and labour productivity in australia is examined using the notion of vertical integration in an input output framework results indicate a decline in productivity growth rates during the 1978 1982 period for both energy and labour energy productivity growth was negative during this period the productivity slowdown was pronounced in the natural resource sectors agriculture food products and minerals results indicate that movements in primary input efficiency are positively correlated suggesting that input complementarity may override substitution effects during macroeconomic shocks

economic modelling of energy services rectifying misspecified energy demand functions abstract although it is well known that energy demand is derived since energy is required not for its own sake but for the energy services it produces such as heating lighting and motive power energy demand models both theoretical and empirical often fail to take account of this feature in this paper we highlight the misspecification that results from ignoring this aspect and its empirical implications biased estimates of price elasticities and other measures and provide a relatively simple and empirically practicable way to rectify it which has a strong theoretical grounding to do so we develop an explicit model of consumer behaviour in which utility derives from consumption of energy services rather than from the energy sources that are used to produce them as we discuss this approach opens up the possibility of examining many aspects of energy demand in a theoretically sound way that have not previously been considered on a widespread basis although some existing empirical work could be interpreted as being consistent with this type of specification while this formulation yields demand equations for energy services rather than for energy or particular energy sources these are shown to be readily converted without added complexity into the standard type of energy demand equation s that is are typically estimated the additional terms that the resulting energy demand equations include compared to those that are typically estimated highlight the misspecification that is implicit when typical energy demand equations are estimated a simple solution for dealing with an apparent drawback of this formulation for empirical purposes namely that information is required on typically unobserved energy efficiency indicates how energy efficiency can be captured in the model such as by including exogenous trends and or including its possible dependence on past energy prices the approach is illustrated using an empirical example that involves estimation of an aggregate energy demand function for the uk with data over the period 1960 2011

a single equation study of u s petroleum consumption the role of model specification the price responsiveness of u s petroleum consumption began to attract a great deal of attention following the unexpected and substantial oil price increases of 1973 74 there have been a number of large multi equation econometric studies of u s energy demand since then which have focused primarily on estimating short run and long run price and income elasticities of individual energy resources coal oil natural gas electricity for various consumer sectors residential industrial commercial following these early multi equation studies there have been several single equation studies of aggregate u s petroleum consumption 4 3 9 5 6 these singleequation studies have found that u s demand for petroleum products can be quite price inelastic in the short run estimates range from 0 04 to 0 08 but exhibits long lags of anywhere from 6 to 10 years that yield long run price elasticities ranging from 0 25 to 0 56 income or gnp elasticities are usually found to be much higher 0 69 to 1 13 with the complete response often assumed to occur in the current period single equation studies are often justified as efficient shortcuts or reduced forms for identifying the central behavioral aspects of a particular market the main issue addressed in this paper is the extent to which the existing empirical results from single equation studies of aggregate u s petroleum consumption have been influenced by the researchers choice of dynamic model specification this question is relevant because the econometric methodology usually followed in such studies is to start with a relatively simple specification such as a partial adjustment model or some kind of a distributed lag structure on price alone this initial specification choice is rarely justified except possibly to cite its previous success in similar work given that models which produce insignificant or perverse coefficient estimates are not usually publishable the reported specification is almost certain to provide reasonable statistically significant estimates with the correct signs the primary diagnostic test of the chosen specification is the durbin watson test statistic or perhaps durbin s h statistic in the presence of lagged dependent variables when this test gives evidence of serial correlation in the residuals the usual response is to correct for this by estimating a first or second order autoregressive model ar 1 or ar 2 should this easilyimplemented correction not solve the problem there is a tendency to chalk it up to some kind 1 an excellent survey of these results may be found in bohi 2 159

green growth planning a multi factor energy input output analysis of the canadian economy abstract incorporating socioeconomic and environmental considerations into energy decisions is necessary when tackling climate change and accelerating green growth in this work we propose a novel extension of the multi factor energy input output model to support evidence informed energy policy making and green growth planning through the introduction of eight different multipliers and two green growth indexes we demonstrate the approach through application at the national scale in canada in particular we quantitatively assess the extent to which changes in final demand impact the domestic and imported primary and renewable energy flows co2 emissions economic expansion and energy job earnings the results point to a potential path of green growth in canada prioritizing activities that generate economic and job growth at minimal environmental pressure i e fewer co2 emissions economic activities that are critical for stimulating green growth in the short to medium run are identified and recommendations are made regarding a longer structural change path for improving the supply chains of other economic activities this work provides insights to decision makers seeking strategies e g policy reforms or targeted public expenditure strategies to accelerate green growth planning on a national scale

an input output analysis of australian energy planning issues the belief that the price mechanism can be used exclusively to combat problems arising from growing energy shortages has led to the neglect of the repercussions of energy conservation on the macroeconomic problems of growth and development moreover many studies consider only the direct effects of energy use and concentrate on petroleum shortages so underestimating the total repercussion and structural dependence associated with changes in energy demand in australia this study attempts to overcome these gaps by modifying input output modelling to estimate all primary energy demand for fossil fuels in australia the complex interactions between energy conservation and macroeconomic goals are investigated at sectoral levels the optimal sectors that meet macroeconomic goals and energy constraints simultaneously have been identified using simple but powerful analytical tools the tradeoffs between energy use and macroeconomic objectives are quantified using energy as a numeraire the conflicts that emerge between macro planning criteria and energy use efficiency are exemplified and the need to reconcile them using the value judgements of political decisionmakers is clarified the limitations and the scope for refinement of the methodology are also discussed

an analysis of co2 emissions in italy through the macro multiplier mm approach abstract the issue of policy design into the environmental economic literature is becoming a crucial point especially for the relevance of its implication on international agreements for climate change and for the definition of climate actions against ghgs emissions the identification of economic drivers accountable for the co2 emissions which represent the major part of ghgs emissions represents a central topic on literature using input output analysis the paper proposes a methodological innovation on the study of suitable policy instrument against the raise of co2emissions which is based on the approach of the macro multipliers mm that leads with the recognition of the impact of all those industries responsible for co2 emissions from the policy perspective the relevance of industries responsible for co2 emissions is also analysed in this approach in which we introduce the target efficiency index and the control effectiveness index across industries as part of final demand vector each commodity has its own relevance or effectiveness in pursuing the attainment of the target vector on the other hand as part of the target vectors each industry emission has its own efficiency in being conveniently modified by changing the policy control vector the results deriving from the mm approach demonstrate the possibility to overcome the limits of the linkages analysis in particular the set of information deriving from the target efficiency and the control effectiveness indices for industries allows designing environmental policies in a framework where economic aggregates are defined in value and physical units using the input output table this study investigates the impacts of industries activities on co2 emission using the mm approach for the italian economy

oil and the macroeconomy when prices go up and down an extension of hamilton s results in an important paper hamilton 1983 demonstrated a strong correlation between oil price changes and gross national product growth in u s data however his study pertained to a period in which all the large oil price movements were upward and thus it left unanswered the question whether the correlation persists in periods of price decline moreover the price variable he used was somewhat distorted by price controls in the 1970s this note investigates whether hamilton s results continue to hold when the sample is extended to include the recent oil market collapse and the oil price variable is corrected for the effects of price controls particular attention is given to the possibility of asymmetric responses to oil price increases and decreases as suggested in the structural employment literature loungani 1986 davis 1987 hamilton 1988 like hamilton i based my investigation on the gnp equation in sims s 1 980b six variable quarterly vector autoregressive model