real interest rates and endogenous growth in a monetary economy abstract in endogenous growth models where the engine of growth is human capital acquired via formal education inflation taxes may raise or lower real interest rates depending upon whether or not physical and or human capital are liquidity constrained cases are examined

the new economics of teachers and education rapidly growing costs of elementary and secondary education are studied in the context of the rising value of women s time the dramatic increase in direct costs of education per student in the past 3 decades is empirically linked to increasing demand and utilization of teacher and staff inputs attributable to growing market opportunities for women and changes in the structure of families on the supply side the flexibility option that female teachers who take temporary leaves do not suffer subsequent wage loss upon reentry is shown to be an important attraction of the teaching profession to women

interrupted work careers depreciation and restoration of human capital the quantitative effects and even the existence of a human capital depreciation phenomenon have been a subject of controversy in the recent literature prior work however was largely cross sectional and the longitudinal dimension if any was retrospective using longitudinal panel data on married women in nls we have now established that real wages at reentry are indeed lower than at the point of labor force withdrawal and the decline in wages is greater the longer the interruption another striking finding is a relatively rapid growth in wages after the return to work this rapid growth appears to reflect the restoration or repair of previously eroded human capital the phenomenon of depreciation and restoration is also visible in data for immigrants to the united states however while immigrants eventually catch up with and often surpass natives returnees from the nonmarket do not fully restore their earnings potential

production function regressions returns to scale and externalities a number of recent papers have used simple linear regressions in an attempt to identify market structure the extent of returns to scale and possible external effects in u s manufacturing industries the results obtained from these regressions have important implications for several branches of modern macroeconomics as a result the macro literature frequently cites specific numerical evidence from caballero and lyons 1992 and hall 1990 which suggests that there are quantitatively significant increasing returns to scale or external effects in u s manufacturing in contrast it is the argument of this paper that this evidence is not convincing the most robust evidence suggests that the typical u s manufacturing industry displays constant returns with no external effects on the other hand there is significant heterogeneity across industries

intermittent work activity and earnings patterns of intermittent work activity appear to be more common in the modern labour market at least for younger workers this study extends earlier models of the relationship between labour market intermittency and earnings to include both part time work and nonparticipation to differentiate between past work experience and current job tenure to allow for nonlinear experience effects and to account for selection bias arising from the exclusion of nonworkers the results suggest that the effects of part time work and nonparticipation on earnings are similar moreover some common patterns emerge the effects are larger for women greater for young workers and greater when intermittency replaces current job tenure

macroeconomic linkages taxes and subsidies in the u s agricultural sector lj ar division of agricultural sciences unlversily of califorj ha ma croecono nc linkages t xes and subsidies in tiie u s agr cuttural secl or by gordon c rausser james a chalfant h alan love and kostas g stamoulis tt r i f r in i jq lifor ia agricultura experiment station clmoation of j gricultural economics january 1986

valuing lost home production of dual earner couples using a life cycle model in which women divide their time between home and market work we establish a link between retirement wealth and the value of forgone home production we use data from the health and retirement study to estimate the model s parameters and adjust the growth rate of gdp to reflect reductions in non market output we find that the value of forgone home production is modest about 25 percent of women s measured earnings

gender differences in training capital and wages this paper constructs an equilibrium job matching model where workers differ in their attachment to the labor force the model predicts that workers with weaker attachment to the labor market will receive lower starting wages and lower post training wages and will be placed in jobs that offer less training and use less capital the implications of the model for gender differences in pay and job assignment are tested with the eopp data set ourfindings suggest that while training intensity during the first three months of employment is similar in positions filled by males and females females are employed in positions that have a shorter duration of on the job training and that use less capital these differences in on the job training and capital in positions filled by men and women as well as a lower market value for women s prior labor market experience account for a substantial part of the gap in wages between males and females

a search interpretation of male female wage differentials a general equilibrium search framework is used to examine the role of gender differences in labor market behavior patterns e g quit rates for personal reasons in determining gender wage differentials for samples of high school and college graduates from the national longitudinal survey of youth nlsy these behavioral patterns are found to be significantly different across the sexes and account for 20 30 of the wage differentials in particular they play a key role in explaining the male female wage differential that remains after controlling for the gender composition across occupations

anticipated policy and endogenous growth in a small open monetary economy abstract this paper analyzes the effects of a preannounced change in the growth rate of credit in a small open economy the model based on an endogenous growth model introduces the adjustment costs for investment and the role of money in the production function and highlights the dynamic behavior of an open economy we show that an increase in the rate of anticipated credit growth lowers the steady growth rate of capital real money balances and real output we also find that the rate of depreciation of the domestic currency will rise steadily toward its stationary level the anticipated domestic credit growth hence exhibits monetary nonsuperneutrality in both the rate and the level of output in the intermediate and the long run

childbearing decision making and family well being a dynamic sequential model first birth most affected by current family income and living standards the hypothesis that the consequences of each additional birth vary depending on initial family size is strongly supported the strongest consequences are felt by families with no children or only one child initially and the impact declines with parity support for the hypothesis that the outcomes associated with each birth are causal factors at the next decision point in a sequential model could not be found in this analysis thus the evidence for the usefulness of such a model is mixed social and behavioral scientists increasingly believe that fertility decisions are made simultaneously with other family choices a couple decides how many children to have how much time and money to invest in each and how much time to allocate to market work housework and leisure an increase in the wife s labor force participation for example leaves her less time for child care and the family may have to purchase substitute care the couple also decides how to divide total expenditures among competing market goods and services and what proportion of total family income to save this process is further complicated by evidence that these choices may not be made once and for all but change as circumstances and experience dictate it is assumed that individuals have at least an implicit understanding of the trade offs they are making and that these

time off at what price the effects of career interruptions on earnings using the national longitudinal survey of youth 1979 the author explores how nonemployment spells and career expectations affected men s and women s wages wage profiles were affected by total non

the effects of job relocation on spousal careers evidence from military change of station moves we investigate the impact of military job relocation on spousal earnings and employment by creating a unique longitudinal database that tracks over 900 000 military spouses over the period 2001 2012 based on data from two administrative sources military records on personnel and their dependents and social security earnings records this database allows us to estimate the effects of military change of station moves controlling for some key observable characteristics of the service member and household and controlling for individual spouse fixed effects we find that military moves cause a substantial decline in spousal earnings in the year of the move on the order of 2 100 or 14 of average spousal earnings moves also increase the likelihood that the spouse has no earnings for the year we find larger earnings reductions for moves that cross state lines and for older spouses male spouses and those with young children the career costs persist over time and spouses continue to experience significantly lower earnings 2 years after the move this persistence combined with the typical military member experiencing a change of station move every 2 or 3 years may substantially limit the ability of military spouses to accumulate human capital over time jel h56 r23 j45 j16 j64

married womens tastes and the decision to participate in the labour market results from a fixed effects model in the paper we report estimates from two logit models of women s labour force participation a model with out fixed effects estimated from cross sectional data indicates a significant postive relation between work experience and particiption we ask whether the relation is due to a causal influence extered by the former variable on the latter or to a common underlying variable taste for market attachement to answer this question we present results from a fixed effects model estimated from panel data in this model the estimated coefficients of experience are insignificant suggestion that a taste for market attachement underlies both experience and participation is the presence of preschool children

occupation segregation a defense of human capital predictions this article examines worker sorting across occupations in response to the risk of death on the job we use family structure as a proxy for willingness to trade safety for wages to test the proposition that workers with strong aversion to this risk sort

taxation and household labor supply we evaluate reforms to the u s tax system in a life cycle setup with heterogeneous married and single households and with an operative extensive margin in labor supply we restrict our model with observations on gender and skill premia labor force participation of married females across skill groups children and the structure of marital sorting we concentrate on two revenue neutral tax reforms a proportional income tax and a reform in which married individuals flle taxes separately separate flling our flndings indicate that tax reforms are accompanied by large increases in labor supply that difier across demographic groups with the bulk of the increase coming from married females under a proportional income tax reform married females account for more than 50 of the changes in hours across steady states while under separate flling reform married females account for all the change in hours

welfare regimes family supportive policies and women s employment along the life course this article examines women s employment patterns during thechild rearing period and the consequences of those patterns for earnings later in life in 12 industralized countries this study proposes an analytic framework that combines welfare regime and gender specific policies to explain country differences the findings presented here suggest that institutional arrangements mediate the costs to women s part time and intermittent employment within welfare regimes employment continuity is highest among countries in which the state provides support for working mothers furthermore this study finds that lower support for mothers employment is associated with higher wage penalties to employment discontinuity

learning by doing and investment in training a synthesis of two rival models of the life cycle this paper provides a theoretical synthesis of recent discussions of learning by doing and investment in training as alternative forms of human capital accumulation these theoretical notions relate to essentially different phenomena in particular pace becker and mincer investment in training does not completely encompass learning by doing the paper then develops a model in which human capital accumulation occurs via both training and learning by doing the joint training learning model since it is more general then pure models in which all accumulation occurs via either training or learning avoids certain restrictive and seemingly implausible implications of either kind of pure model however the joint model also has implications that while compatible with stylized facts about the life cycle are sharper than those of either kind of pure model for example the joint model implies that market time and earnings must rise early in the life cycle while neither pure model without corners does so finally the notion of learning by doing provides a rationale for an empirical finding that has recently received attention to the effect that the rate of depreciation of human capital is not constant but rather depends on the extent to which it is used in market activities

identification of supplier induced demand in the health care sector this paper explores the issues and pitfalls encountered when attempting to test empirically the hypothesis that physician hospital or any other input supply level induces increasing demand for health services in the strict sense of demand shift and through that increased demand for the input in question evidence is presented which suggests that an empirical test of the supplier induced demand sid hypothesis of the type traditionally performed may not in fact be feasible with cross sectional aggregate data such as is usually used

early career work experience and gender wage differentials we estimate a wage model that includes an array of variables measuring the fraction of time worked during each year of the career this array fully characterizes past employment experience regardless of how sporadic it has been our model yields substantially higher estimated returns to experience and lower returns to tenure than do models that measure experience cumulatively and use the standard quadratic functional form we find that the data reject the standard model but fail to reject our model furthermore we find that 12 of the male female wage gap is due to differences in the timing of work experience

individual and opportunity factors influencing job creation in new firms we build on multiple theoretical perspectives to investigate the unique and joint effects of individual and opportunity level factors affecting job creation in new firms we tested hypotheses using survey data from individuals who transitioned from unemployment to self employment under the auspices of a german public policy program our findings reveal that an entrepreneur s breadth of knowledge has a negative influence on the firm s job creation whereas the entrepreneur s leadership experience has a positive influence however as the sector specific labor requirements of a business opportunity increase both breadth of knowledge and leadership experience allow founders to operate their firms with fewer employees

sex related wage differentials and women s interrupted labor careers the chicken or the egg wage differentials between men and women are often attributed to differences in on the job training the lower investment of women being explained by their plans to interrupt their careers for family reasons career interruptions however are often explained by low wages to trace this interrelationship i adopt a simultaneous equations approach trying to explain wages planned separations on the job training and the skill intensity of the job simultaneously skill intensity is found to be a key variable in the explanation of the wage differential traditional theory is hard pressed to explain the sex related differences in this variable

the gender gap in early career wage growth in the uk the gender pay gap on entry to the labour market is approximately zero but ten years after labour market entry there is a gender wage gap of almost 25 log points this article explores the reason for this gender gap in early career wage growth considering three main hypotheses human capital job shopping and psychological theories human capital factors can explain about 11 log points job shopping about 1 5 log points and the psychological theories up to 4 5 log points depending on the specification but a substantial unexplained gap remains women who have continuous full time employment have had no children and express no desire to have them earn about 8 log points less than equivalent men after 10 years in the labour market

an analysis of the effects of higher education on wage differentials between blacks and whites by gender in the united states previous analyses that have examined the effect to higher education on the wage differences between blacks and whites have largely been focussed on males and failed to provide quantitative estimates of the impact that higher education has on discrimination and the black white wage differential for both genders in 1980 in particular we find that equalizing the years of college completed by black and white males reduces the wage differential by 14 conversely equalizing the years of college completed by black and white females exacerbates wage inequality by increasing the wage advantage accruing to black females by nearly 24 hence the egalitarian policy mission of higher education in narrowing wage inequality between blacks and whites is complicated by the issue of gender

postponing maternity in ireland as in many other developed countries ireland has experienced a postponement of maternity whilst a number of authors have commented on this trend suggesting greater female participation in the workforce results in delayed maternity to date little research has tested this proposition we develop a model to consider the main trends related to the phenomenon of maternity postponement considering changes in first and later births separately using retrospective life history data developed from the 1994 living in ireland survey we estimate a hazard model to empirically test the relationship between career planning and the timing of first and subsequent births we incorporate a declining marginal return to experience and thereby provide a human capital career planning explanation for maternity postponement the results of our analysis demonstrate that career planning has an impact on the timing of maternity the findings also establish an income effect that influences the timing of first births copyright the author 2010 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

the effects of interrupted schooling on wages data from the national longitudinal survey of youth reveal that 35 percent of white men who leave school between 1979 and 1988 return to school by 1989 this paper examines the wage effects of these nontraditional enrollment patterns i estimate a wage model which allows individuals to follow a different wage path before and after their reenrollment and an alternative model which does not account for school and work discontinuities i find that young men who delay their schooling receive wage boosts that are smaller than those received by their continuously schooled counterparts wage models that fail to account for delayed schooling tend to understate the returns to schooling received prior to the start of the career

the gender gap in earnings at career entry we propose a new approach to analyzing gender differences in wages this approach identifies several alternative explanatory mechanisms to account for the sorting of women and men into different types of jobs that offer different levels of reward because labor market rewards derive from labor market positions we study matching processes operating at the micro level that sort workers into existing slots in a given macro level structure of jobs and associated wages we focus on the explanation of gender differences in wages at career entry analyzing data from the national longitudinal survey of youth collected between 1979 and 1991 we find that at career entry women earn 84 cents for every dollar men earn gender differences in worker characteristics account for only about 30 percent of this wage gap gender differences in occupational aspirations have the most important effect accounting for 16 percent of the wage gap and gender differences in job related skills and credentials account for about 14 percent of the wage gap gender differences in adult family roles have little direct effect our analysis further suggests that the external influences of employing organizations and network processes on gender differences in occupational and industrial placement at career entry account for another 42 percent of the wage gap t is well established that in the united states on average women s wages are lower than those of men data on the 1992 annual earnings of full time year round workers ages 16 and older indicate that on average women earned 71 cents for every dollar earned by men u s bureau of the census 1993 we analyze gender differences in wages at career entry when market con

in and out of the labour market long term income consequences of child related interruptions to women s paid work why do canadian mothers have lower incomes than women who have never had children microdata from the 1995 gss allow examination of two hypotheses 1 mothers have spent more time out of the labour force thus acquiring less human capital 2 higher levels of unpaid work lead to fatigue and or scheduling difficulties measuring work history does little to account for the family gap the estimated child penalty is reduced by allowing for human capital depreciation and controlling for unpaid work hours but the two hypotheses together cannot entirely explain the gap jel classification j0 j3 entrees et sorties marche du travail et consequences a long terme des interruptions dans l experience sur le marche du travail a cause des enfants ce memoire se demande pourquoi les femmes canadiennes qui ont eu des enfants ont des revenus plus bas que ceux des femmes qui n en ont pas eus les microdonnees de l enquete sociale generale de 1995 de statistiques canada permettent d examiner deux hypotheses 1 les meres ont passe plus de temps en dehors de la main d oeuvre active et donc ont accumule moins de capital humain ou 2 des niveaux plus eleves de travail non remunere peuvent entrainer fatigue ou difficultes d organisation du temps des efforts pour construire une meilleure image de l experience de travail des femmes ne permettent pas d expliquer cet ecart familial meme si la possibilite qu il y ait depreciation du capital humain reduit la penalisation attachee au fait d avoir un enfant en particulier si l interruption dans l experience sur le marche du travail est suivie d un changement d emploi le nombre hebdomadaire d heures de travail non paye est relie negativement aux revenus et si l on normalise pour tenir compte des heures de travail non paye cela reduit la penalisation attachee au fait d avoir un enfant cependant les deux hypotheses combinees ne suffisent pas pour expliquer l ecart

worker effort decisions and efficient gender specific wage tenure profiles i introduction during the past thirty years women have increased their labor force participation female labor market intermittency has decreased and women s total labor market experience and years of tenure with the current employer have increased what these trends imply about the evolution of the gender gap in wages depends in part on gender differences in returns to tenure it is therefore surprising that economists have all but ignored the empirical finding that women have higher returns to tenure than do men over a significant portion of their working lives one reason why this finding has been ignored or treated as an anomaly may be the lack of theoretical constructs which predict an inverse gender gap in returns to tenure several labor market models predict that women should have lower returns to tenure than men human capital theory offers the most frequently cited explanation of flatter earnings profiles for female workers according to human capital theory gains from specialization and exchange lead to one household member specializing in home production and the other in market work since only women bear children historically the outcome of the exchange has been that women have specialized in home production indeed all surveys of time use indicate that women spend on average two to three times as long on housework as men as a consequence of this allocation women anticipate intermittent labor force participation and fewer years overall in the labor force than men this pattern too is borne out in national surveys which invariably find shorter average tenure and fewer total years of labor market experience for women than for men women typically have shorter completed job spells as well hall 1982 table 5 presents evidence that the gender gap in completed job duration is quite large he estimates that 63 8 percent of men but only 49 6 percent of women hold jobs with eventual tenure of at least five years with 37 3 and 15 1 percent of men and women respectively holding jobs with eventual tenure of at least twenty years because of the greater intermittency and shorter anticipated work history for women than men women will find it optimal to acquire less human capital than men 1 lesser quantities of general human capital tends to flatten both the observed earnings experience profile and the observed earnings tenure profile two factors contribute to this pattern first skills deteriorate during periods out of the labor market as in mincer and polachek 1974 which flattens the earnings experience profile for women relative to men second women anticipating discontinuous work histories select into occupations with flatter earnings profiles to minimize the penalty to labor force withdrawals as in polachek 1981 the effects of firm specific human capital on gender differences in wage tenure profiles vary across models for example kuhn 1993 constructs an elegant game theoretic model of gender differences in training and wages if women have a higher exogenous exit rate than men in equilibrium they will be placed in jobs with lower levels of firm specific training with a positive relation between training and productivity and a common share rate of the costs and benefits of specific training for men and women the wage tenure profiles of men will be steeper than those for women in contrast becker and lindsay 1994 argue that firm specific human capital leads to higher returns to tenure for women than men becker and lindsay assume that men and women have the same level of firm specific training however women have greater variance in their opportunity cost of remaining with a firm and so are more likely than men to separate inefficiently by giving women a greater share of both the costs and benefits of firm specific human capital through a steeper wage tenure profile firms reduce undesirable turnover although human capital arguments dominate the literature on gender differences in the labor market other models of wage growth predict flatter wage tenure profiles for women

the family gap and family friendly policies the case of norway norway has among the most generous family policies in the world the most recent is the cash for care reform which was implemented in 1998 we answer two main questions in this article what is the level of the family gap in such a generous regime and how has it developed as a consequence of the latest reform results suggest that the family gap is rather modest in norway compared to many other countries and we find no evidence of a worsening of the gap in recent years a positive interpretation of these results is that the norwegian labour market is fairly flexible in the sense that it seems to be able to absorb even more generous family policies

externalities endogenous productivity and poverty traps abstract we present a version of the neoclassical model with an endogenous industry structure we construct a distribution of firms productivity that implies multiple steady state equilibria even with an arbitrarily small degree of increasing returns to scale while the most productive firms operate across all the steady states in a poverty trap less productive firms operate as well this results in lower average firm productivity and total factor productivity the distributions of employment by firm size across steady states are consistent with the empirical observation that poor countries have a higher fraction of employment in small firms than rich countries differences in output and total factor productivity across steady states are increasing in the degree of returns to scale the capital share and the frisch elasticity of labor supply

the usefulness of predicted values for prior work experience in analyzing labor market outcomes for women this paper proposes an improved way of treating experience in estimating wage equations for women when measures of actual experience are lacking it shows that using a predicted value for experience from occupation specific equations estimated on another data set containing actual experience is preferable to using either potential experience time since school leaving or predicted experience without taking account of the woman s occupation results also show that the use of potential experience may bias the estimated impact offactors such as race and schooling on women s wages

the gap between male and female pay in the spanish tourism industry abstract this paper analyzes wage differentials between male and female workers in the spanish tourism industry using a large administratively matched employer employee data set obtained from a representative sample of companies this allows us to control for unobserved firm specific factors likely to affect the magnitude of the gender wage gap our findings indicate that male workers earn on average 6 7 higher monthly wages than their socially comparable female counterparts in particular the type of contract held the qualifications required for the job and the specific sub sector of employment are very important variables in explaining this gender wage difference we also find that only around 12 of the mean wage difference in the tourism industry cannot be explained by differences in observable characteristics which is well below the average for the rest of the industries in spain 87 our interpretation is that minimum wage legislation provides a particularly effective protection to women in the tourism industry which is characterized by a large number of low wage earners

investment and interruption effects of the us experience on the earnings of return migrants in mexico migration is widely viewed as an investment in human capital however due to the imperfect transferability of skills and knowledge across countries migration trips are also career interruptions especially for return migrants who may meanwhile experience depreciation of home country specific skills this article demonstrates that migration experience increases return migrants earnings in the home country on the condition that the migration stay is sufficiently long and mostly uninterrupted employing the revised human capital earnings function the empirical study shows that only a barely interrupted us experience longer than five years regardless of the legal status of the migration trips predicts higher earnings of male return migrants in mexico than comparable non migrants robust findings emerge controlling for unobserved individual acteristics or using instrumental variables to deal with the self selection and endogeneity short migration stays in the us and frequent traveling provide

why the gender gap in wages narrowed in the 1980s since 1976 the gender gap in wages on average declined by about 1 per year this article focuses on identifying the factors underlying this trend three data sets are analyzed the current population survey the panel study of income dynamics and the national longitudinal survey we find that convergence in measurable work related characteristics schooling and work experience explains one third to one half the narrowing the remainder is attributable to a relative increase in women s returns to experience as well as to declining wages in blue collar work and other factors

market structure and cyclical fluctuations in u s manufacturing the relevance of imperfect competition for models of economic fluctuations has received increased attention from researchers in both macroeconomics and industrial organization the authors outline a new methodology for estimating industry markups of price over marginal cost and the influence of market structure on cyclical movements in total factor productivity measures of industry concentration import competition and unionization are important for explaining markups in some industry groups much of the estimated markup of price over marginal cost is accounted for by noncapital fixed costs finally the authors show that their estimated margins fluctuate substantially over the cycle in particular markups are countercyclical especially in concentrated durable goods industries copyright 1988 by mit press

minimum wages and labor market prospects of women in recent years the field of labor economics has witnessed growth of interest in causes and consequences of female labor force participation principal areas of research include determinants of female wages and labor supply many empirical issues remain unresolved and research continues to focus on the likely ranges of such parameters as the own wage elasticity of hours supplied the cross elasticity with respect to spouse s income the rate of return to female schooling and the issue of self selection in observed earnings of working women one area which remains relatively unexplored is the impact of minimum wage legislation on employment prospects of females the issue of minimum wages is of special interest in the case of women first the proportion of labor force nonparticipation by females exceeds that of males consequently institution of an effective minimum wage plays to a larger audience of nonparticipating females than males it is likely that a significant portion of the positive labor supply response to minimum wages is in the form of previously nonparticipating females second as is well known female wages tend to be lower than those of males owing in part to 1 lower levels of female schooling and experience 2 intermittent life cycle patterns of labor supply and human capital accumulation 3 sorting of females into occupations that are conducive to intermittent behavior and 4 as several researchers suggest gender discrimination consequently women are more likely than men to experience wages that fall short of the legal minimum this study examines the consequences of minimum wages on female employment prospects of special interest is the likelihood of successful job search for women whose wages in the absence of legislation would be below the minimum it is commonly argued that minimum wages in competitive labor markets have the effect of hindering employment prospects of low wage workers this study based on a sample of microdata from the public use sample of the 1980 census proposes a simple framework in which this issue can be addressed in the context of a conventional model of labor supply

child related transfers household labour supply and welfare what are the macroeconomic effects of transfers to households with children how do alternative policies fare in welfare terms we answer these questions in an equilibrium life cycle model with household labour supply decisions skill losses of females associated to non participation and heterogeneity in terms of fertility childcare expenditures and access to informal care calibrating our model to the u s economy we first provide a roadmap for policy evaluation by contrasting transfers that are conditional on market work childcare subsidies and childcare credits with those that are not child credits when both types can be means tested or universal we then evaluate expansions of current arrangements for the u s and find that expansions of conditional transfers have substantial positive effects on female labour supply that are largest at the bottom of the skill distribution expanding childcare credits leads to long run increases in the participation of married females of 10 6 while an equivalent expansion of child credits leads to the opposite 2 4 expanding existing programs generates substantial welfare gains for newborn households which are largest for less skilled households expanding childcare credits leads to the largest welfare gains for newborns and achieves majority support

dynamic behavior of capital accumulation in a cash in advance model abstract this paper analyzes the dynamic behavior of capital accumulation in stockman s cash in advance model if the cash in advance constraint applies only to consumption then money is superneutral along the transition path as well as in the long run alternatively if the cash in advance constraint applies to gross investment as well as consumption then a permanent increase in the rate of monetary growth reduces the steady state capital stock the effect on the speed of adjustment depends on the sign of a certain simple function of the parameters of preferences and technology

work environment and opt out rates at motherhood across high education career paths observing a sample of harvard alumnae in their late thirties the authors study the relationship between workplace flexibility and the labor force participation of mothers they first document a large variation in labor force participation rates across higher education fields mindful of the possibility of systematic patterns in the types of women who complete various graduate degrees they use the rich information available for the sample supplemented by the longitudinal nature of a subset of these data to assess the extent to which these labor supply patterns may reflect variation in the difficulty of combining work with family although ruling out systematic sorting entirely is not possible their evidence suggests that inflexible work environments push women out of the labor force at motherhood

economic growth under money illusion abstract empirical and experimental evidence documents that money illusion is persistent and widespread this paper incorporates money illusion into a stochastic continuous time monetary model of endogenous growth we model an agent s money illusion behavior by assuming that he maximizes nonstandard utility derived from both nominal and real quantities money illusion affects an agent s perception of the growth and riskiness of real wealth and distorts his consumption savings decisions it influences long run growth via this channel we show that the welfare cost of money illusion is negligible whereas its impact on long run growth is noticeable even if the degree of money illusion is low

the wages of older men in this paper net depreciation rates in human capital are estimated from wage data on a longitudinal sample of men aged 45 to 64 the results indicate that wage rates begin to decline in the early fifties at rates under 1 percent annually and decline at about 2 percent annually after age 60 this decrease was offset by the general increase in wage levels so that on average the real wages of men approaching retirement did not decline during the period studied the general increase was larger for blacks than for whites probably because of decreases in labor market discrimination between 1966 and 1974 an appendix presents a gls estimator for a variance components model in which the number of observations per individual varies

customer and supplier driven externalities the purpose of this paper is to provide empirical evidence helpful for distinguishing different types of externalities we pursue this by extending the productionfunction framework of robert e hall 1990 and caballero and lyons 1990 1992 to exploit two key dimensions of the data disaggregate input output relationships and differences between estimates emphasizing time series versus cross sectional aspects of the data we obtain three main results first from the within estimates using annual data which emphasize the time series properties common across sectors we find a strong reduced form relationship between industry productivity and the activity level input growth of customers in sharp contrast supplier activity levels are insignificant the second result derives from between estimates which emphasize the cross sectional dimension of the data here we find the opposite is true there is a strong reduced form relationship between industry productivity and the activity level of suppliers but no relationship with customer activity levels we interpret the first two results as suggesting that over shorter horizons the linkage between an industry and its customers is pivotal in the transmission of external effects while in the long run external effects are mostly related to intermediate goods linkages the third result concerns the transition from short to long run we find that as the number of periods over which the variables are averaged is incrementally increased from one year toward the full sample period 27 years the significance of customers versus suppliers smoothly reverses itself the remainder of the paper is organized in four sections section i presents the core model and the econometric methods for disentangling the external effects section ii describes the data and estimation section iii presents the main results and our conclusions are presented in section iv

women s earnings reexamined since a discussion of details may obscure important general issues we start by restating what we consider to be the two major contributions of our 1974 study 5 1 the methodological contribution lies in the specification of an earnings function when human capital investment occurs at different rates including zero over various segments of the life cycle such specifications are appropriate for persons when market work does not continue throughout the usual working age or for analyses of continuous work histories segmented by some relevant criteria such as job change and occupational or geographic mobility applied work on these subjects continues 1 and specifications are undergoing refinement in retrospect the model we used to analyze earnings of women is not the best but it is serviceable which permits us to refrain from injecting new matters into the present discussion 2 the substantive interest in our study of earnings of women focuses on several propositions a even with identical current characteristics women whose past experience was shorter have currently lower wages as their total job investments were smaller b total investments are smaller not only because they are spread over fewer years of work experience but also because persons who spend less time in market work invest less per year worked than persons with longer work experience c if work experience is interrupted for any significant length of time job skills tend to erode so the human capital stock is reduced by depreciation or atrophy the relevance of these propositions to the analysis of the sexual wage gap is obvious in part women s wages are lower than men s because their labor force attachment is shorter and often discontinuous also the gap widens over the life cycle since initial differences in experience are necessarily small

human capital formation and business cycle persistence abstract in this paper we examine the role of the formation of human capital in propagating shocks over the business cycle we show that a two sector equilibrium business cycle model with human capital is able to generate persistence in the growth of output and other aggregate variables comparable to that observed in the post war us data a key feature is the relatively low elasticity of substitution between skilled and unskilled labor in the production of human capital

underpaid and overworked measuring the effect of imperfect information on wages this paper investigates the degree of shortfall between the wages workers earn and what they could earn assuming perfect or costless information in the labor market we use the stochastic frontier regression technique to estimate the degree of shortfall found in wages on an individual basis the paper tests in addition a number of hypotheses supplied by search theory in this context the results generally confirm the propositions from search theory and indicate that on the average worker wages fall short of worker potential wages by approximately 10 percent

accounting for development through investment prices abstract cross country income gaps are large in the data can observed investment prices account for these gaps our model adds an extensive margin to the neoclassical growth model by allowing for entry of firms when combined with a returns to variety effect our model provides an amplification mechanism from investment prices to output using cross country data on relative investment prices the model can explain up to 5 to 6 fold income differences between the richest and poorest countries in our sample while simultaneously reducing the implied cross country tfp differences

the inflation tax in a convex model of equilibrium growth a general equilibrium monetary economy is described that exhibits equilibrium growth the production technology is consistent with jones and manuelli 1990 and rebelo 1991 the inflation tax and nominal interest rates are shown to be inversely related to the equilibrium growth rates of real variables until a critical point is reached at this point equilibrium growth is eliminated and the predictions of stockman 1981 and abel 1985 concerning the level effects of distortionary monetary policies appear for the nominal side of the model a version of the prediction of friedman 1969 is shown to hold for a particular balanced growth path following king and rebelo 1990 a linear growth version of the model is calibrated to illustrate the potentially large growth and welfare effects of moderate inflations

anticipated inflation in a monetary economy with endogenous growth this paper makes a new attempt to investigate the role of anticipatedmonetary growth in economic growth combining the barro 1990 rebelo 1991 type endogenous growth model with sidrauski s 1967 framework we show that the pre announcement of money supply behaviour may have significant effects on the rate of growth during the transition process the key factor indetermining adjustment patterns of the economy to anticipated monetary changes is the degree of relative risk aversion however changes in the rate of monetary growth do not affect the rate of long run growth regardless of the degree of relative risk aversion

earnings profiles of department heads comparing cross section and panel models academics who become department heads suffer declining research skills because of time spent performing administrative tasks and this skill depreciation slows future wage growth this study examines kansas state university faculty who served as department heads during the period 1965 92 cross section estimates of the compensation for serving as department head are biased upward because of a correlation between unmeasured productivity characteristics and selection as department head to correct for this bias the authors reestimate earnings equations using a panel model that incorporates personal fixed effects although the average department head in the sample received a wage premium of 12 the premium for past administrative service had completely disappeared for the typical former head another finding is that skill depreciation was most severe and wage growth most adversely affected in the sciences as compensation department heads in the sciences received a larger initial administrative premium th

aggregate returns to scale and embodied technical change theory and measurement using stock market data abstract we develop a new general equilibrium growth accounting framework that features increasing returns to scale imperfect competition and incorporates technological revolutions into the description of technical progress we propose a way to tell apart revolutionary changes in technology and incremental innovations using stock market data we use our framework to jointly estimate the overall embodied tfp change during 1953 1995 and the aggregate output elasticity we find that the it revolution raised the aggregate tfp level by about 20 we suggest a 1 09 1 11 range for the aggregate returns to scale

the relation between price and marginal cost in u s industry an examination of data on output and labor input reveals that some u s industries have marginal cost well below price the conclusion rests on the finding that cyclical variations in labor input are small compared with variations in output in booms firms produce substantially more output and sell it for a price that exceeds the costs of the added inputs the paper documents the disparity between price and marginal cost where marginal cost is estimated from annual variations in cost it considers a variety of explanations of the findings that are consistent with competition but none is found to be completely plausible

local economic conditions and wage labor decisions of farm and rural nonfarm couples effects of geographical differences in local economic conditions on wage labor demand and wage labor participation decisions of rural couples are examined for current population survey households 1978 82 wage premiums are shown to exist for localities anticipating labor demand growth higher unemployment rates larger share of employment in services and higher costs of living these effects are stronger for males than females effects of local economic conditions on the probability of wage work are consistent with expected market wage and reservation wage effects and for farm households the probability of wage work increases when expected farm output prices decline or the wage increases

monetary policy overlapping generations and patterns of growth this paper investigates the role of monetary policy in economic growth using an infinitely lived overlapping generations model with a simple convex technology that can yield endo genous growth we show that money supply behaviour of the government may have significant effects on the long run economic growth in addition to the effect on the long term growth rate of the economy the policy may determine whether the economy stays in the exogenous growth process restricted by the growth rate of labour supply or realizes the endogenous growth that sustains continuous growth of pep capita income and consumption effect of inflation on capital accumulation has been one of the central topics in macroeconomics using an ad hoc model tobin shows that a rise in the rate of inflation deepens capital formation whereas sidrauski presents an opti mizing model in which money is superneutral that is inflation has no effect on capital formation in the long run these studies have been extended by a number of studies such as dornbusch and frenkel 1973 and wang and yip 1992 however the concern of these studies is restricted to the analysis of the level effect of inflation on capital accumulation recent developments in endogenous growth theory present a useful analytical framework for re examin ing the effect of inflation on capital accumulation and economic growth in contrast to the strong emphasis on the importance of fiscal policy for long run economic growth seen in mino 1989 barro 1990 and king and rebelo 1990 the role of monetary policy has been mostly ignored in the endogenous growth literature recalling that the effect of money growth on capital formation has been the central issue in money and growth literature it is rather curious that recent studies on endogenous economic growth focus exclusively on the real side of the economy there is however a small number of authors investigating the role of money in endogenously growing economies marquis and reffet 1991 and mino 1991 introduce money into two sector models involving human capital accumulation via a cash in advance constraint they conclude that an increase in the rate of nominal money supply generally depresses the long term economic growth as long as the cash in advance con straint applies to investment demand for either physical or human capital wang and yip 1991 extend the uzawa lucas model of endogenous growth by assuming that households allocate their available time between production transaction and human capital formation the transaction time is assumed to be a decreasing function of real money balances and therefore a reduction in real balances arising from an increase in the monetary expansion rate increases c the london school of economics and political science 1995

thick market effects and churning in the labor market evidence from u s cities using u s census microdata we show that on average workers change occupation and industry less in more densely populated areas the result is robust to standard demographic controls as well as to including aggregate measures of human capital and sectoral mix analysis of the displaced worker surveys shows that this effect is present in cases of involuntary separation as well on the other hand we actually find the opposite result higher rates of occupational and industrial switching for the subsample of younger workers these results provide evidence in favor of increasing returns to scale matching in labor markets results from a back of the envelope calibration suggest that this mechanism has an important role in raising both wages and returns to experience in denser areas

post school investment and wage differentials some further evidence the topic of wage differentials between demographic groups has received a great deal of attention in the literature among the most researched areas are wage differentials based on race and gender studies have consistently found that men earn more than women and whites earn more than blacks many attempts have been undertaken to explain these wage differentials with two main explanations evolving over time the first claims one group is paid less than another due to discrimination thus the fact that white males earn more than black males may be due to employers and employees distaste for hiring and working with minorities the second main explanation claims different groups have different levels of human capital thus black males earn less not because of discrimination but because they have fewer acquired skills than white males wage differentials are obviously important for public policy if workers are paid differing amounts simply because of their race or gender then society is not fully utilizing its resources this would indicate a need for stronger government intervention to remove discriminatory practices by businesses for example this intervention may take the form of affirmative action programs or mandating comparable worth however if the gap in wages is due to choices made by individuals which lead to differences in human capital then the wage differentials may be justified as a result government intervention is not only unnecessary but may be an example of inefficient regulation since no easy way exists to measure the extent of discrimination the standard method has been to decompose the residual of a wage equation into explained and unexplained portions the idea being that some of the wage gap can be explained by differences in attributes between groups of individuals goldin and polachek 5 point out that attributes may also be due to discrimination if for example blacks are the first to be laid off this may result in lower levels of experience this is not by choice and may indicate discrimination also there is a question of which is the appropriate base group for example the researcher has two alternatives when examining the wage gap between black and white males he or she can take the predicted black wage given white characteristics as a percentage of white wages or take the actual black wage as a percentage of predicted white wages given black characteristics in many cases the choice is not really clear and as a result often an average of these two is taken by employing a dummy variable for either

urban effects on participation and wages are there gender differences abstract this paper estimates participation and wage equations using panel data from the united kingdom to explore gender differences in urban wage and participation premiums the results suggest a small but economically significant urban participation premium for women but none for men results from the wage estimations suggest that after controlling for sample selectivity observed and unobserved heterogeneity the urban premium is larger for women this wage premium is also larger for married or cohabiting women relative to others there is also evidence of higher urban returns to experience for men and lower urban wage depreciation for both men and women

the rate of return to investments in on the job training in this paper we use the overtaking method to calculate marginal rates of return to on the job training as we have no prior information on who invests in ojt and who does not we use a switching regression model with unknown regimes to obtain parameter estimates of the wage profiles the estimation results show that lower intercepts are associated with steeper wage profiles this confirms the prediction that those who invest in ojt have lower initial wages but higher wage growth we further find that the marginal rate of return to ojt is high and increases with education

why are fertility rates and female employment ratios positively correlated across o e c d countries we develop a quantitative theory of fertility and labor market participation de cisions in order to investigate the role of labor market frictions to understand the positive association between fertility and employment among o e c d countries we nd that unemployment induces females to postpone and space births which in turn reduces the total fertility rate moreover diferences in female labor outcomes across the u s and spain can account for the low fertility rate in spain relative to the u s we also nd that labor market frictions low probability of nding a job determine how employment and fertility are associated across economies in particular fertility and employment are positively associated across economies with low employment ratios low probability of nding a job on the other hand fertility and employment are negatively associated across economies with a high probability of nding a job

post migration earnings profiles an application of human capital and job search models several studies have noted that post migration earnings of migrants rise more rapidly than earnings of non migrants 13 42 9 human capital models would attempt to explain this by differences in the investment profiles of migrants and non migrants these differences could be due to migration selectivity whereby migrants have different investment incentives due to ability or motivation or to the loss of human capital by migrating and the recoupment of this capital after migration search models would explain this phenomenon by imperfect information migrants may have less information about wage distributions at the destination than non migrants enter the destination job market at a low wage and engage in subsequent post migration search for better earnings or as yezer and thurston 15 have suggested search may be selective and migrants whose reservation wages are not met after some time at the destination leave i e we observe migrants having steeper earnings profiles since those who do not obtain high earnings leave as one might expect neither of these pure models is alone sufficient to explain the factors that create the different earnings streams instead they can be viewed as complementary explanations the failure to recognize that migration involves both job search and human capital changes could lead to biased tests of hypotheses originating from only one model a good example of this and the one addressed in this paper is testing hypotheses regarding the source of differences between experience earnings profiles of migrants and non migrants for example yezer and thurston 15 establish and test the hypothesis that the distance migrated should be positively associated with income gains after migration they find the expected relation using regressions with a distance dummy 2 however it is well known that more educated individuals travel greater distances 11 and generally have steeper earnings profiles than less educated persons the correlation between education and distance migrated makes any test of the yezer and thurston hypothesis biased toward accepting their search model when education is not controlled

foreign capital and gender differences in promotions evidence from large brazilian manufacturing firms proquest denotes formulae omitted widespread consensus asserts that occupational segmentation is the chief determinant for gender differences in wages in the brazilian labor market see for example oliveira 2001 although women represent 39 percent of the formal workforce in brazil they amount to only 23 percent of the employees in the sectors that pay relatively higher wages in 2004 as well the predominance of segmentation increases if one restricts attention to managerial positions of which women hold only 14 percent this suggests that limited promotion prospects for women in the brazilian job market may present barriers to their promotion to the upper rungs of the corporate ladder this paper contributes to the literature by examining data from the larg est firms of the brazilian manufacturing industry in particular our goal is to determine whether obstacles to women s ascension exist by tracking the amount of time it takes for a woman to get a promotion to a managerial posi tion the aim is to complement the literature on gender differences in promo tions whose papers mainly focus on computing the promotion rates time to promotion offers a different angle in that samples with a large time span could well present similar likelihoods of promotion for both genders even if the promotion durations are different we construct the duration variable by following from january 1996 to december 2005 every individual who enters the annual report of social information rais database between january 1991 and december 1995 we denote as nonpromoted the individuals who do not obtain a promotion to a managerial position within the sample that is the right censored observations whereas we assign duration zero to the workers who already are in managerial positions in january 1996 accordingly we label as promoted the individuals within our sample who rise to a managerial position that is those with uncensored positive durations investigating dif ferences in promotions is particularly difficult because observationally simi lar male and female workers may display equal promotion rates and durations even in the presence of gender differences for example promotions may differ in quality as far as we know this is the first study to examine gender differences in promotions using microdata from a developing country apart from the obvious interest in finding whether the main stylized facts hold in a latin american country we were also motivated by the quality and availability of the brazilian data in contrast to the many studies that employ data from individual firms see for example cabral ferber and green 1981 gerhart and milkovich 1989 baker gibbs and holmstrom 1994 our study relies on a homogeneous sample of recently hired workers from the brazilian manufac turing industry in the period from 1996 to 2005 our data set is particularly convenient first the data include a wide array of controls for worker and firm characteristics second unlike blau and devaro 2007 we observe multiple workers per establishment at different occupations and hierarchical levels as well as their career paths in terms of occupation and wage a potential limi tation is that our data set does not include any direct measure of on the job productivity and hence we must come up with indirect controls interestingly we find that there are significantly fewer gender differences in the time to promotion within foreign owned firms than within domestic firms in the brazilian manufacturing industry our findings complement to some extent the literature on the differences between multinationals and domestic firms doms and jensen 2006 greene and others 2009 as well as the evidence that gender differences may depend on the nature of the firm 1 we argue that such gender differences are consistent with statistical discrimi nation and self selection we reason as follows suppose there are relatively more women than men who prefer to dedicate more time to their family than to their careers

sex segregation and sectors an analysis of gender differences in returns from employer changes sweet james 1973 women in the labor force new york seminar press vanek joann 1974 time spent in housework scientific american 231 116 20 1980 household work wage work and sexual equality pp 275 91 in sarah f berk ed women and household labor beverly hills ca sage walker k and m woods 1976 time use a measure of household production of family goods and services washington d c american home economics association

on the regional labour market determinants of female university enrolment in europe casarico a profeta p and pronzato c d on the regional labour market determinants of female university enrolment in europe regional studies this paper empirically investigates how young women s decisions of investing in post secondary education are affected by labour market outcomes of older women living in the same region eu silc data on educational decisions of women who completed secondary schooling are used and indicators of the regional labour market are constructed exploiting regional and time variability it is found that the share of working women with young children of women with managerial positions and the self employed positively affect the probability to enrol significant effects of these variables for men are not found

unilateral divorce and the labor force participation rate of married women revisited two recent articles in this review by h elizabeth peters 1986 and william r johnson and jonathan skinner 1986 address an anomaly recently observed by labor economists james p smith and michael p ward 1985 have noted that real wage growth explains most of the increase in the female labor supply between 1950 and 1980 however in the period after 1970 the female labor supply growth rate rose while the real wage growth rate fell robert t michael 1985 provides a partial explanation by identifying the effect of divorce on the labor market decision of married women in that article a lagged relationship is observed between increases in the divorce rate and increases in the labor force participation rate lfpr of married women with young children during the post world war ii period since the divorce rate rose in the period after 1960 it could explain part of the increase in the growth rate of the lfpr of married women observed after 1970 the articles by peters and by johnson and skinner provide additional insights into this anomaly they recognize that the introduction of no fault grounds for divorce after 1970 may have contributed to the increase in the labor supply of married women after that date the no fault grounds for divorce created what has been called unilateral divorce the shift in female labor supply also could explain the slower real wage growth using 1979 data peters concludes that residence in a unilateral divorce state had a statistically significant positive influence on whether a married woman was in the labor force johnson and skinner use 1972 data to conclude that being in a unilateral divorce state in that year had a negative effect on the labor supply of married women unilateral divorce was introduced in the united states in 1970 when california adopted its no fault divorce statute therefore peters s data are probably more useful for testing the impact of unilateral divorce laws on married women s labor force participation in her article the lack of compensation for marriage specific investment at divorce creates an incentive for married women to increase their more general market capital during marriage by entering the labor force 2 a lack of compensation for marriage specific investment implies that women are not being compensated for being good housewives and mothers given the range of commodities produced by housewives and mothers marriage specific investment should not necessarily vary with characteristics of women such as age race or education if the impact of unilateral divorce on the lfpr of married women is due to the lack of compensation for mar regents professor of management robert 0 anderson schools of management university of new mexico albuquerque nm 87131 i thank michele blazek steve cauley dwight grant ron johnson rod lievano sam peltzman john schatzberg david weeks nelson woodard douglas young and two anonymous referees for their valuable comments the anderson schools of management provided research funding for this project ibefore 1970 most states had grounds for divorce that were based on fault such as adultery or mental cruelty between 1970 and 1985 all the american jurisdictions enacted some form of no fault divorce the no fault divorce statutes generally make either irretrievable breakdown or incompatibility the sole ground for divorce or add one of them to the fault grounds while no fault divorce is often called unilateral divorce that is not technically correct since some states require mutual consent to the no fault grounds see doris j freed and timothy b walker 1990 2while it was recognized by peters p 443 that women who invest in marriage may face lower wages in the future based on gary s becker 1981 p 15 marriage specific investment has value based on its ahilitv to increase houiehold nrodiution

the volatility debate discussion in his paper the volatility debate shiller examines a narrow concept of volatility associated with efficiencies as measured by the relationship of stock prices to discounted future dividends the paper is essentially a review and defense of shiller s writings on stock price volatility i have two main criticisms first this debate is already in the literature the evidence against shiller s concept of efficiency is strong and it need not be further belabored whether his concept of efficiency is appropriate needs more attention second whether stock markets are efficient is of limited consequences for agriculture issues of greater interest here are efficiency of the speculative markets in agriculture commodity markets and land markets and the mechanisms that explain the volatility in these markets

what determines aggregate returns to scale abstract this paper develops a unified framework that incorporates four features important in existing models with increasing returns fixed costs decreasing marginal costs product variety and market power when fixed costs are not allowed to vary and profits are imposed to be zero in every period only the degree of returns to variety determines the degree of aggregate increasing returns to scale when fixed costs respond to changes in aggregate activity or the zero profit condition does not hold in the short run aggregate returns depend not only on product variety but also on diminishing marginal costs or market power the degree of market power however does not affect input prices which are critical to determine the uniqueness of equilibrium

nonemployment stigma as rational herding a field experiment abstract long spells of unemployment are known to reduce the likelihood of re employment but it is difficult to discern the reasons for this observation using an experimental method that controls for search intensity and possible discouragement of job applicants i document that job market opportunities for the nonemployed diminish rapidly over time in this experiment duration dependence is solely due to firm perceptions why do firms view long spells of nonemployment as negative signals rational herding is one important factor managers believe that unemployed applicants were previously interviewed and if the applicants were productive they would have been hired

the consequences of long term unemployment evidence from linked survey and administrative data that the long term unemployed fare worse in the labor market than do the short term unemployed is well known but why one potential explanation is that the long term unemployed are bad apples wh

commodity prices money surprises and fed credibilit strict monetarist theory in an extreme form holds that excessive money growth or the expectation of future money growth shows up immediately in the rapid inflation of goods prices however it is widely argued that for most goods prices are in fact sticky in the short run and reflect money growth only in the long run if one seeks a sensitive market measure of the perceived looseiless or tightness of monetary policy one must look elsewhere than at the general price level interest rates being determined in quickly adjusting financial markets are free to respond immediately to expectations regarding monetary policy in 1981 and 1982 every friday at 4 10 p m eastern standard time the federal reserve board would announce the money stock for the week ending nine days previously if the announced money stock was different from what the market had been expecting interest rates generally jumped in the same direction clearly they were responding to revisions of the expected future path of the money stock but nominal interest rates are an ambiguous indicator of expectations on the one hand an announced increase in the money stock may be received by the market as indicating a higher

firm dynamics and markup variations implications for sunspot equilibria and endogenous economic fluctuations this paper analyzes how the interaction between firms entry and exit decisions and variations in competition gives rise to self fulfilling expectation driven fluctuations in aggregate economic activity and in measured total factor productivity tfp the analysis is based on a dynamic general equilibrium model in which net business formation is endogenously procyclical and leads to endogenous countercyclical variations in markups this interaction leads to indeterminacy in which economic fluctuations occur as a result of self fulfilling shifts in the beliefs of rational forward looking agents when calibrated with empirically plausible parameter values and driven solely by self fulfilling shocks to expectations the model can quantitatively account for the main empirical regularities characterizing postwar u s business cycles and for 65 of the fluctuations in measured tfp

returns to human capital under the communist wage grid and during the transition to a market economy we estimate returns to human capital during communism and the transition using data on 2 284 men in the czech republic we show a extremely low and constant rates of return to education under the communist wage grid and dramatic increases in transition which do not differ by firm ownership b radical changes in returns to several fields of study and sheepskin effects in both regimes c identical wage experience profile in both regimes d similar 1996 returns to human capital obtained in communism and in transition and e changes in the interindustry wage structure a decomposition of the variance of wages finds individuals unobservable effects from communism to persist into transition but most of the variance is due to unobservable effects introduced in the transition

the employment effects of terminating disability benefits abstract few social security disability insurance di beneficiaries return to the labor force making it hard to assess their likely employment in the absence of benefits using administrative data i examine the employment of individuals who lost di eligibility after the 1996 removal of drug and alcohol addictions as qualifying conditions approximately 22 started working at levels that would have disqualified them for di an employment response that is large relative to their work histories those who received di for 2 3 years had the largest response suggesting that a period of public assistance may maximize the employment of some disabled individuals

home production with endogenous growth abstract benhabib et al 1991 and greenwood and hercowitz 1991 demonstrate that general equilibrium beckerian home production models that incorporate separate technology shocks to the home and market production functions are able to explain either the comovements in employment across consumption and investment sectors of the economy or the comovement in output across market and home investment sectors but not both simultaneously this paper demonstrates that these comovements can be resolved by introducing endogenous growth into the model while retaining only a single technology shock to market production the additional margin for allocating time between formal training and market activities is sufficient to bring about the observed positive comovements in employment and output across sectors

work power and earnings of women and men numerous studies have established that part of the very substantial male female earnings gap is explained by differences in the amount of human capital workers have accumulated see for example jacob mincer and haim ofek 1983 institutional factors have also been found to play a role in determining wages david gordon et al 1982 occupation further helped to explain the remaining gap but several researchers have shown that introducing dimensions of work authority by taking into account the individual s position in the work hierarchy explains more of the variation in earnings than does occupation martha hill 1980 last two recent studies ferber and spaeth 1984 spaeth 1985 also included control over monetary resources this variable added substantially to the explanatory power of earnings regressions even after human capital variables institutional factors and several other measures of work authority had been entered like the other studies ferber and spaeth also found that reward structures for men and women are quite different suggesting the possible existence of discrimination the question whether women may also be at a disadvantage in achieving control over monetary resources was not investigated when hill examined the process of achievement of work authority she found substantial differences between male and female workers in this paper we examine whether the same is true for attaining financial control i data and analysis

the accumulation of dis advantage the intersection of gender and race in the long term wage effect of marriage a sizable literature examines whether and why marriage affects men s and women s wages this study advances current research in two ways first whereas most prior studies treat the effect of marri