the simple macroeconomics of north south interaction recently there has been an upsurge of interest in macroeconomic linkages between the developed countries the north and less developed countries the south there are several reasons for this first it is partly a response to the recent ldc debt crisis and its possible consequences for northern financial markets and southern growth prospects second the effects of northern macroeconomic policies on primary commodity prices and hence on northern inflation and output and on southern debt are of interest for the world economy third the study of international interdependence in the context of the northern economies has highlighted a missing link the southern economies that are not modeled in detail in existing models of north north interactions analysis of these issues may well prove to be significantly influenced by the behavior of the missing bloc comprising the south what is so particular about north south interactions two asymmetries are normally held to represent the key differences between the economies of developed and developing countries these have to do with the workings of goods and financial markets and are captured in the following simple stylized way 1 northern production consists of industrial goods the output of which is endogenous and the market for which clears through changes in the volume produced by contrast southern production consists of agricultural goods the output of which is exogenous and the market for which clears through changes in the price of agricultural goods relative to industrial goods the association of industry with the north and agriculture with the south is clearly an oversimplification 2 the north has developed capital markets with endogenous interest rates that affect expenditure but in the south credit markets are imperfect the only financial effect on expenditure is a wealth effect that reduces southern expenditure as indebtedness in the south arises we have recently contributed to three surveys of the modeling and policy issues involved in studying interactions between these two rather different kinds of economies see d currie et al 1988 currie v muscatelli and vines 1988 muscatelli and vines 1988 the present paper attempts to distill that work and to model in the simplest possible way some of the key processes at work we concentrate on two important policy issues in global macroeconomics i the effect on the south of reaganomics in the north and ii the effect of debt relief for the south and aid to the south

the world bank global keynesianism and the distribution of the gains from growth sir hans singer whom this volume celebrates was a pupil of john maynard keynes at cambridge and in 1945 attended the bretton woods negotiations at which keynes and others designed the institutions which now seek to regulate and stimulate the international economy the world bank the imf and the gatt sir hans has provided ever since that time frequent creative suggestions concerning the way in which all of those institutions separately and in relation to the un system should set about the task of global economic governance with a particular flurry of activity around 1994 5 when the bretton woods institutions celebrated their half century by this time of course the bretton woods institutions had departed from their original articles of agreement and implicated the world bank progressively more deeply in policy based programme lending alongside its original project lending functions this paper attempts a little belatedly to take up some of the concerns aroused by that flurry of activity with particular reference to the world bank which keynes as we saw above saw as having the principal stimulative and entrepreneurial role the concerns have been expressed by sir hans in the following way the shift to programme lending and policy conditionality tied in with three other developments first the withering away of the development functions of the un created a gap into which it was tempting and easy for the world bank to move together with the imf second the debt crisis of the 1980s made the developing countries pliant in accepting conditionality pressures from the bretton woods institutions third in the process of replacing the un as a focus of development policy guidance and in line with trends in the major industrial countries the world bank developed again together with the imf a new washington consensus emphasising government failures market orientation liberalisation privatisation etc now the purpose of this is i am using the language of the imf and world bank now to cut down today but in doing so lay the foundations for subsequent sustainable growth now the fact is that if you cut down today it is just as likely that if you cut investment today that does not lay the foundations for subsequent growth that does exactly the opposite the imf are quite fond of illustrating their policy with the french proverb reculer pour mieux sauter the trouble is that what we have today is that in all too many cases the developing countries stand on the edge of an abyss and therefore by stepping back they don t gain manoeuvring space for moving forward but they fall into the abyss singer 1995 p 469 and 1994 p 55

in search of smoking guns what makes income inequality vary over time in different countries we investigate the forces affecting the distribution of income by analyzing an unbalanced panel of information for 16 industrialized countries for the years 1966 through 1994 income inequality is measured with the gini coefficient of equivalent disposable income individuals are the unit of analysis the statistical analysis uses panel methods the results suggest that many factors affect the development of income inequality some factors are strictly economic a decreased industrial sector generally fosters inequality and some support is found for the view that increased trade of manufactured goods from developing countries is also a factor other forces are outside a strictly defined market sphere low inequality is found when a large proportion of the labor force belongs to a trade union and also when there is a large public sector in addition demographic circumstances are important since the proportion of the population under age 15 has a positive effect on inequality we find however no association between the unemployment rate and inequality

cyclical and political influences on the size distribution of income in the us 1959 1989 the quesion of whether the size distribution of income is subject to cyclical fluctuations in unemployment and inflation has been investigated in several studies in these studies however the fact that unemployment inflation and distribution may be influenced intentionally by policy makers is ignored in order to investigate whether any political influence on the size distribution of income actually exists a model is formulated in which the distribution not only depends on unemployment and inflation but also on a variable representing the political process the model is tested using time series data pertaining to the case of the us in the period 1958 to 1989 the results indicate that inequality tends to be negatively influenced by democratic administrations

gendered impacts of fertilizer subsidy removal programs in malawi and cameroon abstract since the early 1980s development experts and donor agencies have agreed on the importance of structural adjustment programs saps aimed at getting prices right adoption of reforms were made preconditions for new loans or grants in many sub saharan african countries in both malawi and cameroon one such required reform was government s eliminating fertilizer subsidies to the small farm sector previously used to increase the profitability of intensive agriculture while keeping food prices artificially low the aim of this paper is to review fertilizer subsidy removal programs for their impact on farmers who in sub saharan africa are women in theory sap programs should benefit women producers because much emphasis is placed on renewing agricultural production and aligning farmgate prices with world prices but in practice will they benefit are saps gender neutral and affect men and women equally or merely gender blind

partisan governments the international economy and macroeconomic policies in advanced nations 1960 93 this article examines the impact of parties domestic institutions and the international economy on the conduct of monetary and fiscal policies using time series cross section data from nineteen oecd countries for the years between 1960 and the mid 1990s the results are as follows partisan governments have affected alone and in interaction with the organization of labor markets the pattern of macroeconomic management still their impact has varied over time partly as a function of economic conditions but fundamentally as a function of the degree of financial liberalization and the exchange rate system in place after following broadly similar macroeconomic policies in the 1960s oecd governments pursued divergent monetary and fiscal policies in response to the economic slowdown of the 1970s even when they initially adopted countercyclical measures conservative governments quickly favored tight monetary policies and strove to achieve fiscal discipline by contrast taking advantage of generalized capital controls and floating exchange rates socialist cabinets embraced demand management policies in a systematic fashion mostly through budget deficits in corporatist countries and through both loose monetary and loose fiscal measures in noncorporatist settings as financial liberalization progressed in the early 1980s partisan and institution led differences in macroeconomic policies waned across countries

north south growth and the terms of trade a model on kaldorian lines this paper examines equilibrium growth and stability in the world economy using a north south model in which there is assumed to be surplus labor in both the north and south at an exogenously determined level of real wages the model allows for substitution in consumption between primary commodities and industrial goods in the north and treats the cases of both surplus and scarce land in the south in the case of an exogenous shock to the model the north south terms of trade may overshoot its equilibrium value and or converge to this value along a cyclical path there is no guarantee that the adjustment path is stable

the politics of speculative attacks in industrial democracies recent models of speculative currency crises contend that market expectations of policy behavior can trigger a speculative attack we argue that political processes and partisan objectives inform expectations about the government s commitment to the exchange rate first market actors anticipate periods when the partisan identity of a government may change through an election or a cabinet collapse second party labels provide information to currency traders about the policy objectives of a potential government consequently we contend that the probability of a speculative attack will be higher when markets expect the cabinet to end and when the cabinet dissolution is likely to produce a leftward shift in policy a discrete timesurvival model is used to estimate the probability that a cabinet will dissolve in any given month for sixteen parliamentary democracies from 1970 to 1995 the predicted values are then used as a proxy for market expectations in a model of speculative currency crises

do rising tides lift all boats the impact of secular and cyclical changes on poverty discussions about the antipoverty effects of economic growth in the united states have largely been predicated on john kennedy s metaphor that a rising tide lifts all boats but the magnitude of these effects has been a subject of debate since the inception of the war on poverty see lowell gallaway 1965 and henry aaron 1967 this debate has public policy as well as academic implications the greater the antipoverty effectiveness of growth the less the need for special programs or income supplements during economic expansions elsewhere we have shown that increased real income need not be associated with a decline in poverty see our 1984 and 1985 papers in fact poverty rates did not fall from 1982 to 1983 even though real median income increased and in 1984 the official poverty rate was about the same as it was in 1967 while real median family income was 7 1 percent above its 1967 level if a rising tide was lifting all boats the tide was late in many harbors in this paper we examine the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and poverty section i argues that several factors now limit the effectiveness of growth in reducing poverty section ii differentiates the effects of secular economic growth from those of cyclical recoveries the next section presents our interpretation of the data followed by a brief conclusion we show that growth had a large antipoverty effect through the early 1970 s but that the more recent experience has been different because growth rates have slowed and inequality has increased

unemployment and income distribution time series evidence from sweden for a long time swedish politicians have been devoted to keeping unemployment at low levels the main reason for this devotion is probably the belief that higher unemployment increases inequality of income and welfare this is a reasonable belief since unemployment risks are highest among people with low earnings capacity even when they have a job by means of micro data it is easy to verify a marked low income profile of unemployment further the swedish unemployment insurance system replaces only about 70 per cent of foregone income and quite many unemployed do not qualify for any benefits see bjorklund and holmlund 1991 increases in unemployment however are associated with many changes in the economy with complex consequences for the personal distribution of income in addition to the income losses suffered by those who become unemployed higher unemployment also affects the factor shares of income the profit share typically declines during recessions and because upper income groups receive a relatively high proportion of their income from capital income a countervailing mechanism is involved changes in unemployment also affect inflation which in turn might influence the personal distribution of income the distributional effects of inflation are an open question this note makes an investigation into the relationship between unemployment and the personal distribution of income using swedish time series data the method was first used on u s data by blinder and

a positive theory of discretionary policy the cost of democratic government and the benefits of a constitution we offer an explanation of government s preference for discretionary policy action the main elements are asymmetric information and the ability and desire of governments to maximize reelection prospects discretionary policy imposes a social cost we show that the cost is eliminated if all voters have the same information as the government an optimal state contingent policy rule that precommits government through a constitution eliminates the cost by removing government s opportunities to exploit its informational advantage rules of this kind and constitutional restrictions are difficult to enforce in the presence of uncertainty and different information available to government and the public

addressing food security in africa via multiple livelihood strategies of women farmers abstract because food insecurity is primarily a problem of low household incomes and poverty and not just inadequate food production projects and programs for food insecure african farmers which aim at increasing production of subsistence crops may be ineffective instead government should look for ways to improve returns to farmers resources in a broader context which may include expanded opportunities for non farm microenterprises and agricultural labor this has been the conventional wisdom since the writings of amartya sen still unclear however are the implications of his thinking for the roles of african women farmers who are traditionally the food crop producers in africa and are often food insecure immediate expansion of income earning activities such as cash cropping and non farm microenterprises may not be possible for women in male headed households in many african societies where cash income is seen as part of the male domain in addition women farmers may need a long adjustment period to diversify their income sources fully because most african countries are at the early stages of structural transformation different developmental interventions both in policy and in technology are therefore needed to address food security and economic transformations in africa in the short and long term

comparing the distribution of top incomes across countries comparing the distribution of top incomes across countries raises many methodological problems including differences in tax legislation and in tax avoidance the definition of the income unit and the definition of a control total for income the paper considers the significance of these problems in three applications comparing top income shares at a point in time analysing the extent of convergence or divergence over time and setting national changes in the context of the world distribution of income jel d31

third world debt and macroeconomic interactions between the north and south in this article the authors examine three issues the causes of the south s debt crisis the nature of the macroeconomic linkages between the north and south and some of the debt rescheduling programmes the crisis was due not only to domestic policies in the south but also to the macroeconomic linkages between the south and the oecd economies these linkages may also play an important part in its cure debt adjustment with growth for the south needs a package of measures including greater co operation on macroeconomic policies and trade issues between north and south and a commonly agreed position on outstanding debt

the european central bank independence accountability and strategy a review this paper reviews research on central banking and monetary policy with special emphasis on the position of the future european central bank nowadays it is often thought that an independent central bank with an explicit mandate to aim for price stability constitutes an important institutional device to assure price stability indeed the ecb will be one of the most independent central banks as follows from the codings of various indicators measuring legal independence still it does not follow straightforwardly from the literature that the statute of the ecb is optimal it is also argued that the accountability of the ecb is poorly arranged for in comparison with that of several national central banks finally the discussion about the monetary strategy of the ecb is reviewed

the future of the income tax the federal income tax has been under attack by the economics profession for more than a decade the attack comes from two directions supply siders who believe that progressive income taxation impairs economic incentives and more traditional economists who would substitute a progressive expenditure tax for the income tax 2 at one time support for the expenditure tax was confined to a few members of our profession including such distinguished names as john stuart mill irving fisher nicholas kaldor and james meade today it is fair to say that many if not most economists favor the expenditure tax or a flat rate income tax this group has joined the opponents of progressive taxation in the attack on the income tax despite an incessant barrage from both groups no country in the world is planning to abandon the income tax or is even considering a personal expenditure tax a wave of tax reform beginning with the u s reform in 1986 has been sweeping the world aimed at improving the income tax not at eliminating it tax preferences formerly regarded as sacrosanct are being removed and there is a distinct movement toward comprehensive income taxation 3 however individual income tax rates are being cut tax progressivity has been declining almost everywhere and reliance on the income tax has been diminishing it will come as no surprise to this audience that i approve of the base broadening feature of the current tax reform movement but i believe that the reduction in the redistributive effect of the income tax has gone too far in this paper i shall show that the progressivity of the u s tax system never very pronounced except during and immediately after the two world wars has been declining for more than two decades and that the tax reform act of 1986 reversed this decline but only slightly consequently we have a long way to go to improve the equity of the tax system i believe this can be done without punitive tax rates that will hurt economic incentives i begin with a brief review of recent changes in the u s distribution of income and follow this with an analysis of the effect of taxes on the income distribution i next examine arguments for and against the income tax with particular emphasis on its effects on economic incentives and its merits when compared with the expenditure tax i then evaluate the income tax as it emerged from the 1986 tax reform and conclude with tjoseph pechman passed away on august 19 1989 his presidential address was delivered at the onehundred second meeting of the american economic association december 29 1989 atlanta georgia joseph a pechman economic studies program the brookings institution 1775 massachusetts avenue nw washington dc 20036 i have benefited from the comments and suggestions on an earlier draft of this paper by henry j aaron richard goode jane g gravelle robert w hartman donald w kiefer herbert e klarman robert d reischauer clifford m winston and h peyton young but they should not be held responsible for the views expressed in this paper i am indebted to richard kasten for various simulations i am also grateful to stephen j kastenberg for research assistance and to diane a shugart valerie m owens and sara c hufham for secretarial assistance some of the more extreme supply siders argued that large tax cuts pay for themselves see for example laffer 1981 but i believe it is fair to say that this view has been totally discredited for a more reasonable supply side view see the economic report of the president 1982 2see for example michael j boskin 1978 david e bradford 1980 charles l ballard don fullerton john shoven and john whalley 1985 paul courant and edward gramlich 1982 martin feldstein 1978 robert hall and alvin rabushka 1985 john kay and mervyn king 1983 charles mclure 1987 mieszkowski 1980 and lawrence summers 1981 it is interesting that the recent popularity of the expenditure tax among economists was stimulated by a tax lawyer william d andrews 1974 3see pechman 1988

opening a can of worms the pitfalls of time series regression analyses of income inequality this paper argues that time series regression analysis is of only very limited use for understanding the determinants of income inequality the argument is based on a combination of results from the time series econometrics literature and several characteristics of inequality itself principally nonstationarity of the data in most inequality regression models and the weak theoretical foundations underlying the models a sample of postwar us data is used to illustrate the problems involved

through time changes in family income inequality the effect of non synchronous regional growth factors affecting the dynamics of income inequality in the us during the 1948 92 period are examined specifically it extends the work of maxwell who found that through time changes in family income inequality are related to demographic and industry factors and draws upon the insights of other researchers who have recognized that the us national economy is actually a composite of semi autonomous regional economies the results provide strong evidence that family income inequality is related to the pattern of regional economic growth and the relative proportion of unmarried families

central bank independence and macroeconomic performance some comparative evidence this note uses information on a sample of sixteen oecd countries to assess the relationship between central bank independence and macroeconomic performance as previous work suggests politically controlled central banks are more likely to pursue policies that lead to high and variable inflation however the authors find little evidence that political control of central bank policy has any impact on measures of the level or variability of growth unemployment or the ex ante real interest rate copyright 1993 by ohio state university press

structural unemployment cyclical unemployment and income inequality this is the first study that decomposes unemployment into its structural and cyclical components and investigates their impact on income distribution controlling for the influence of inflation increases in structural unemployment have a substantial aggravating impact on income inequality inflation has a progressive impact which is due to the unexpected component the study demonstrates that previous work failed to take into account the stochastic trend behavior of the variables consequently specifications used by previous research cannot predict the behavior of income shares after 1983 whereas the specification used by this paper generates accurate forecasts the results also indicate that a sustained gnp growth is not necessarily associated with an improvement in income inequality because sustained gnp growth can coexist with increased structural unemployment

another look at the evidence for rational partisan cycles in presenting evidence in favor of rational partisan cycles where electoral victories by leftist parties are expected to create temporary expansions and electoral victories by rightist parties are expected to create temporary recessions alesina cohen and roubini 1999 rely upon autoregressive time series intervention regressions these regressions however are not consistent with their model in this paper a model is derived which is consistent with the intervention approach in its reduced form the differences between the models are highlighted and new empirical estimates are presented on a panel of seven oecd nations which generally does not support the rational partisan cycle implications

is a turnaround in africa possible without helping african women to farm a turnaround in africa is not possible in the short run of at least 1 decade without helping women farmers with hand hoes gain equal access to basic agricultural inputs and resources this is so because women are such active participants in farming it is estimated that for 82 countries women constitute 46 of the agricultural labor force in sub saharan africa and 31 of the force in north africa and the middle east in the long run however a turnaround is possible without helping women to farm because women farmers will be displaced as agricultural intensification occurs but because the intensification process will be extremely uneven both within and between african countries the displacement of women farmers will also be uneven thus their displacement will be blocked or slowed down in regions with sufficient land resources and land extensive family systems extensive male out migration lack of control of animal diseases or the presence of gender neutral incentives to produce in conclusion women farmers in these regions will still be the norm while those in other regions will be displaced as intensification required by a turnaround proceeds to insure that women farmers are not displaced policy planners at international national and local levels should communicate with technical experts and extension specialists about the need to incorporate women as agricultural producers with full access to yield increasing inputs in development projects

comment on cyclical and secular influences on the size distribution of personal income in the uk some econometric tests by g weil 1986 comment on cyclical and secular influences on the size distribution of personal income in the uk some econometric tests by g weil applied economics vol 18 no 10 pp 1103 1107

cyclical and secular influences on the size distribution of personal income in the uk some econometric tests 1984 cyclical and secular influences on the size distribution of personal income in the uk some econometric tests applied economics vol 16 no 5 pp 749 756

empirical evidence of political influence on the size distribution of income in the united states 1959 1991 abstract political influence on the size distribution of income is tested in a statistical model using annual u s data for 1959 1991 we present empirical evidence that both democratic administration and reelected president appear to have significant downward redistributive effects

wage polarisation in the us and the flexibility debate the proportion of workers earning low wages in the american economy declined from 1963 through 1979 since 1979 both the low wage and the high wage shares of employment have increased leading to wage polarization analysis of current population survey data indicates that this occurred for both men and women for men this condition has been exacerbated by a secular stagnation in real median wages these empirical developments in the distribution of labor income are analyzed in detail and discussed in light of theoretical debates about employers attempts to increase labor flexibility under the pressure of declining profits copyright 1990 by oxford university press

measuring the effects of socio economic variables on the income distribution an application to the east german transition process this paper develops a discrete variant of the semiparametric methodology of dinardo fortin and lemieux 1996 dfl to measure the effects of socio economic variables on the income distribution although the proposed method is also based on the calculation of hypothetical income distributions by reweighting the original population it is much easier to implement the framework is applied to examine the distributional effects of rising unemployment decreasing female labor market participation and widening income structure in east germany following the reunification with west germany in 1990 the empirical results suggest that both these tendencies contributed considerably to the recent increase in income inequality in east germany

unemployment and the size distribution of income the impact of changes in the level of unemployment on the u k size distribution of annual income is examined using cross section data increased unemployment is shown to have a discernible regressive effect however reductions in shares were not highly concentrated at the very bottom of the distribution many individuals affected by unemployment during the year are in households families not at the bottom of the distribution particularly because of the presence of other working members copyright 1986 by the review of economic studies limited

politics and business cycles in industrial democracies politics alberto alesina influences from political competition on macroeconomic policy are often thought to be a source of economic fluctuations politicians are described as being driven by two not mutually exclusive main motivations they want to be reelected and they harbour political or ideological biases when such theories are confronted with actual cycles in a number of industrial countries the pattern of inflation unemployment output and budget deficits indicates that partisan policy making is a fairly widespread phenomenon with more limited evidence that electoral preoccupations result in major fluctuations the combination of partisanship and electoral cycles may easily result in socially undesirable outcomes in particular the degree of politico institutional stability and the independence of the central bank have a bearing on macroeconomic outcomes these observations raise a number of important questions about the design of political institutions

the markup and inflation evidence in oecd countries in this paper we evaluate the dynamic inconsistency argument put forth by kydland and prescott 1977 and barro and gordon 1983 as an explanation for differences in the average inflation experience across oecd countries the focus is on the empirical evidence relating the overall degree of competition among firms as measured by the markup of price over marginal cost and inflation over the 1973 88 period the prediction is that higher markups raise the monetary authority s incentive to increase output leading to higher equilibrium rates of inflation we find that the markup does well in explaining cross country differences in average inflation jel classification e31 e58 d43 l ecart du prix par rapport au cout marginal et l inflation resultats pour les pays de l ocde ce memoire examine l argument mis de l avant par kydland et prescott 1977 et barro et gordon 1983 pour expliquer les differences dans le taux moyen d inflation entre les pays de l ocde on porte une attention speciale aux resultats empiriques qui relient le degre general de concurrence entre les entreprises mesure par l ecart du prix par rapport au cout marginal et le niveau d inflation entre 1973 et 1988 la prediction est que des ecarts prix cout marginal plus eleves augmentent l incitation des autorites monetaires a accroitre le niveau de production ce qui entraine des taux d inflation d equilibre plus eleves il s avere que l ecart du prix par rapport au cout marginal tend a expliquer bien les differences dans le niveau moyen d inflation entre pays

poverty in eastern europe in the years of crisis 1978 to 1987 poland hungary and yugoslavia eastern europe experienced an economic crisis between 1978 and 1987 declining income led to substantial increases in poverty rates in poland and yugoslavia while poverty in hungary remained at about the same level as before the crisis in all three countries urban poverty increased as the economic condition of state sector workers deteriorated to a much greater extent than that of agricultural and mixed households the increased poverty was entirely explained by declining income because the overall income distribution did not change or in some cases improved

changes in the distribution of wages in canada 1981 1992 this article uses microdata to study the changes in the distribution of weekly wages in canada from 1981 to 1992 changes in the distribution are analyzed using lorenz curves and eight different univariate measures of inequality evidence is presented that indicates that inequality is anticyclical increasing during recessions and falling during business cycle expansions moreover after changes in the cycle are accounted for there has been a clear upward trend in wage inequality comparisons between the canadian and the u s distributions show that wage inequality was less pronounced in canada than it was in the united states in the 1980s and was increasing in canada relative to the united states from 1989 to 1992

macroeconomic interactions between north and south list of figures list of tables preface list of conference participants 1 introduction david currie anton muscatelli and david vines 2 an econometric investigation of north south interdependence michael beenstock discussion michael p dooley 3 north south interactions a general equilibrium framework for the study of strategic issues david currie david vines thomas moutos anton muscatelli and nic vidalis discussion paul armington 4 commodities debt and north south cooperation a cautionary tale from the structuralist camp andrew hughes hallett discussion ralph c bryant 5 the use of commodity contracts for the management of developing country commodity risks andrew powell and christopher gilbert discussion jorge braga de macedo 6 an empirical study of disequilibrium in north south trade s hossein samiei discussion youngil lim 7 global savings investment and adjustment on micro and macroeconomic foundations of north south financial interdependence rob vos discussion alasdair i macbean 8 brazil s growth prospects domestic savings external finance and oecd performance interactions winston fritsch discussion adrian wood index