fiscal decentralisation the knowledge economy and school teachers wages in urban china abstractwe examine how fiscal decentralisation and progress towards the development of a knowledge intensive economy has affected teachers wages in china utilising panel data from 2001 to 2013 we find that fiscal decentralisation has a negative impact on teachers wages and that this effect is magnified through a deepening of the knowledge economy while the knowledge economy itself has no effect on teachers wages the findings suggest that incentives being offered to local administrators need to be revisited if china is convinced of the need to increase teacher quality in ways suited to the knowledge economy which it wishes to construct

measuring the impacts of teachers reply abstract rothstein 2017 successfully replicates chetty friedman and rockoff s 2014a b henceforth cfr s results using data from north carolina but raises concerns about cfr s methods we show that rothstein s methodological critiques are invalid by presenting simulations and supplementary empirical evidence which show that i his preferred imputation of missing data generates bias ii his placebo test rejects valid research designs and iii his method of controlling for covariates yields inconsistent estimates of teachers long term effects consistent with the conclusions of bacher hicks kane and staiger 2016 using data from los angeles we conclude that rothstein s replication study ultimately reinforces cfr s methods and results jel h75 i21 j45

teacher quality in educational production tracking decay and student achievement growing concerns over the inadequate achievement of u s students have led to proposals to reward good teachers and penalize or fire bad ones the leading method for assessing teacher quality is value added modeling vam which decomposes students test scores into components attributed to student heterogeneity and to teacher quality implicit in the vam approach are strong assumptions about the nature of the educational production function and the assignment of students to classrooms in this paper i develop falsification tests for three widely used vam specifications based on the idea that future teachers cannot influence students past achievement in da ta from north carolina each of the vams exclusion restrictions are dramatically viola ted in particular these models indicate large effects of 5th grade teachers on 4th grade t est score gains i also find that conventional measures of individual teachers value added fade out very quickly and are at best weakly related to long run effects i discuss implic ations for the use of vams as personnel tools

measuring the impacts of teachers i evaluating bias in teacher value added estimates are teachers impacts on students test scores value added a good measure of their quality one reason this question has sparked debate is disagreement about whether value added va measures provide unbiased estimates of teachers causal impacts on student achievement we test for bias in va using previously unobserved parent characteristics and a quasi experimental design based on changes in teaching sta using school district and tax records for more than one million children we nd that va models which control for a student s prior test scores exhibit little bias in forecasting teachers impacts on student achievement although teachers have substantial impacts

duopolistic vertical restraints abstract in an industry where competition exists at the wholesale level vertical restraints are not necessarily desirable from the standpoint of the manufacturers when vertical restraints are employed it is never in the form of retail price maintenance but rather in the form of franchise fee pricing when the products produced by the manufacturers are only slightly differentiated the producers may benefit from the double marginalization that arises with linear pricing such double marginalization results in higher retail prices which relieve competitive pressures

using lagged outcomes to evaluate bias in value added models abstract value added va models measure agents productivity based on the outcomes they produce the utility of va models for performance evaluation depends on the extent to which va estimates are

measuring the impacts of teachers ii teacher value added and student outcomes in adulthood abstract are teachers impacts on students test scores value added a good measure of their quality this question has sparked debate partly because of a lack of evidence on whether high value ad

greek membership and academic performance evidence from student level data abstractcompared to other inputs of the education production function less is known about the effect of social and non classroom choices this study examines whether joining fraternities and sororities improves academic performance in order to account for the self selection bias of greek membership i exploit plausibly exogenous cross class variation in greek student composition at the course instructor level my estimate shows that a 10 percentage point increase in greek student composition translates to a 0 02 standard deviation increase in course grade for greek students relative to non greek students i further find that this effect is driven largely by low achieving and middle achieving white greek members

a cross country panel analysis of currency substitution and trade attention that has been directed toward the effect of trade on foreigner s holdings of domestic currency comes exclusiely from time series eidence here we extend a model of currency substitution that incorporates a trade motie for foreigners to hold domestic currency it uses time series and cross sectional information for a panel of 17 industrialized countries testing two way fixed effects models against pooled and random effects alternaties the cross sectional information is significant reealing that pooling of data could result in misleading inferences since country specific effects regional group effects and distance are all important determinants of

competing vertical structures precommitment and renegotiation we consider a model where two agents privately informed about their own characteristics play a normal form game on behalf of two uninformed principals we analyze the existence of precommitment effects through public announcements of contracts in a model where agency contracts designed ex ante can always be secretly renegotiated at the ex ante and interim stages we show that the existence of precommitment effects depends both on the strategic complementarity of the agents actions and on the direct effect of the opponents actions on each principal s welfare in our model the possibility of renegotiation is crucial for the existence of precommitment effects the results are introduced through an example of cournot and bertrand competition between firms viewed as vertical structures

task specific experience and task specific talent decomposing the productivity of high school teachers abstract we use administrative panel data to decompose worker performance into components relating to general talent task specific talent general experience and task specific experience we consider the context of high school teachers in which tasks consist of teaching particular subjects in particular tracks using the timing of changes in the subjects and difficulty levels to which teachers are assigned to provide identifying variation we show that a substantial part of the productivity gains to teacher experience are actually subject specific similarly while three quarters of the variance in the permanent component of productivity among teachers is portable across subjects and levels there exist non trivial subject specific and level specific components counterfactual simulations suggest that maximizing the test score contribution of task specific experience and task specific talent can increase student performance by as much as 04 test score standard deviations relative to random assignment of teachers to classrooms

the trade balance and real exchange rate under currency substitution abstract it is demonstrated that the calvo and rodriguez 1977 results hold up in a utility maximizing model contrary to the claim of liviatan 1981 it is argued that liviatan s conclusions are based on a mistaken assumption having rescued calvo rodriguez from liviatan it is then shown that the calvo rodriguez results are dependent on two special assumptions that there is only one foreign asset traded and its real return is zero the paper also shows that there is an avenue for foreign inflation transmission under perfectly floating exchange rates even when goods prices are perfectly flexible however the direction of response of real variables is in general ambiguous

currency substitution portfolio diversification and money demand we extend the thomas 1985 dynamic optimising model of money demand and currency substitution to the case in which the individual has no access to bonds denominated in foreign currency we show that in this case the demand for domestic money is influenced by portfolio decisions contrary to what defended by the portfolio balance approach to currency substitution the results obtained in this paper suggest that the significance of an expected exchange rate depreciation term in the demand for domestic money provides a valid test for the presence of currency substitution the results also suggest that in countries facing monetary instability and currency substitution restricting the availability of interest bearing assets denominated in foreign currency may have a destabilising impact on the money demand

coexistence of strategic vertical separation and integration abstract this paper gives conditions under which vertical separation is chosen by some upstream firms while vertical integration is chosen by others in the equilibrium of a symmetric model a vertically separating firm trades off fixed contracting costs against the strategic benefit of writing a two part tariff exclusive dealing contract with its retailer coexistence emerges when more than two vertical cournot oligopolists supply close substitutes when vertical integration and separation coexist welfare could be improved by reducing the number of vertically separating firms the scope for coexistence diminishes when assumptions on contract observability and commitment are relaxed

socially excessive dissemination of patent licences compared with the social optimum a monopolist usually sells too little this result seemingly includes the case of a lab that licences its patented cost innovation katz and shapiro 1986 find conditions under which the lab will issue fewer than the socially optimal number of licences however i find instead that its incentives can be socially too high the monopoly seller may sell too much for example it can be profit maximizing to sell several licences while it is socially optimal that none is sold en comparaison avec l optimum social un monopoleur habituellement vend trop peu voila qui semble tenir pour le cas d un laboratoire qui vend des licences pour une innovation brevetee qui reduit les couts katz shapiro 1986 ont montre dans quelles conditions le laboratoire va emettre moins que le nombre optimal de licences cependant l auteur decouvre que les incitations peuvent plutot l amener a en emettre trop plus que l optimum social par exemple il se peut que la maximisation du profit amene a vendre plusieurs licences alors qu il serait socialement optimal de n en vendre aucune

territorial restrictions in franchise contracts i introduction efficient contracts establish the incentives for contractual parties through the assignment of rights or authority over decisions as well as shares of profit this insight has been widely used to explain the nature of the firm 1 the role of rights assignment in explaining specific business contracts however is relatively unexplored here we analyze contractual rights within franchise systems focusing on the right to add new franchisees to an existing franchise area the choice in a franchise contract is simple either grant the franchisor the right to add new franchisees in the future or allow existing franchisees the right to block the addition of new outlets the literature on vertical restraints assumes that the restraints specified in contracts are enforced and never renegotiated with respect to territorial exclusivity in particular the literature mainly takes two perspectives territorial protection either prevents franchisor hold up behavior the appropriation of franchisee returns from the investment in establishing the local market or it corrects distortions arising from competition among franchisees 2 our model extends the hold up story by recognizing the dynamic nature of contractual relations between parties contracts are always open for renegotiation and the initial contracts are designed with this in mind the key effect in assigning the right to add additional franchisees is on the status quo point in bargaining subsequent to the initial contract the central point is simple the party with the authority to add franchisees can extract a larger portion of the wealth created by investment in the system incentives depend on the appropriated portion of the return to investment therefore the optimal contract assigns the right to the party whose input is more valuable to the system 3 the next section offers a simple model that develops this theme in a subsequent section we examine some facts about franchise systems in place and illustrate alternative assignments of authority ii the model we consider the simplest franchise contract a franchisor f offers to a franchisee g a contract giving the right to collect profits from the use of the franchisor s brand name in a retail territory we assume that the level of economic profits cannot be verified by a third party such as a court this rules out explicit sharing rules for profits between the two parties 4 these profits depend upon the efforts of both the franchisor and franchisee in developing the market the efforts are undertaken immediately after the contract is signed the franchisee s input represents for example local advertising selling effort or quality and the franchisor s input represents for example national advertising or the maintenance of the brand name the profits from the venture are uncertain and depend on the realization of a draw should the system prove sufficiently successful it may be profitable to add another retail outlet the evolution of contracts will respond to any opportunity for profit enhancement and any restrictions in the initial contract preventing this realization will be open for renegotiation the role for territorial constraints in particular may be illustrated within a simple formal model the effort levels of the franchisor and franchisee are denoted by e sub f and e sub g and are measured in dollars the profits earned from the brand name depend upon a stochastic variable e g demand uncertainty denoted by theta which is realized after the efforts are undertaken after the realization of theta there is an opportunity for the franchisor to sell a position in the territory to a second franchisee a product idea that enjoys success warrants an expanded retail network as the market is mature at this point no further investment is required the key element of the contract for our interest is the allocation of authority over the admission of additional retailers to the territory in question does the contract guarantee to the original franchisee exclusive authority to the use of the brand name in the territory

the inflation discipline of currency substitution abstract we examine the argument that currency substitution should be encouraged since it provides an inflation discipline in highly stylized games of national welfare maximization we find that as currency substitution increases currency survival comes to dominate all other considerations and inflation rates do indeed come down however we find no reason to think that these competitive inflation rates will be optimal the discipline embodied in currency substitution may be too weak or too strong it may be a poor substitute for direct coordination of monetary and fiscal policies we try to relate our analysis to recent u k proposals

would higher salaries keep teachers in high poverty schools evidence from a policy intervention in north carolina abstract for a three year time period beginning in 2001 north carolina awarded an annual bonus of 1800 to certified math science and special education teachers working in public secondary schools with either high poverty rates or low test scores using longitudinal data on teachers we estimate hazard models that identify the impact of this differential pay by comparing turnover patterns before and after the program s implementation across eligible and ineligible categories of teachers and across eligible and barely ineligible schools results suggest that this bonus payment was sufficient to reduce mean turnover rates of the targeted teachers by 17 experienced teachers exhibited the strongest response to the program finally the effect of the program may have been at least partly undermined by the state s failure to fully educate teachers regarding the eligibility criteria our estimates most likely underpredict the potential outcome of a program of permanent salary differentials operating under complete information

social spillovers in the classroom identification estimation and policy analysis i present a method to jointly estimate social spillovers in the classroom and the distributions of teacher and student effects this method is based on the covariance and higher order moments restrictions of the test scores requiring the random assignment of teachers and students to classrooms using the tennessee project star dataset i estimate sizeable spillovers in kindergarten classrooms and departures from normality of the teacher and student ability distributions the estimates also show that reducing class size has a positive effect on mean performance but it increases the inequality based on these estimates i perform several input neutral policy counterfactuals involving teachers and students assignment rules and changing the distribution of class sizes for the latter i derive an optimal class size distribution rule which increases mean test scores and reduces the overall variance

portfolio theory and currency substitution one of the major reasons friedman 1953 and johnson 1972 advocated flexible exchange rates was to eliminate supply side monetary substitutability which can incapacitate domestic monetary policy however contributors to the currency substitution literature including miles 1978 girton and roper 1981 and mckinnon 1982 have argued that when economic agents hold both domestic and foreign monies variations in foreign interest rates or expected future exchange rates can make domestic money demand functions unstable as economic agents shift resources in response to changes in prospective relative returns as a result they and others have claimed that flexible exchange rates may not secure domestic monetary autonomy l the major purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the conditions under which foreign and domestic monies are substitutes in demand when economic agents have motives to hold both and to contrast the determinants of currency substitutability with those of the more general concept of asset substitutability importantly it is demonstrated that the usual portfolio theoretic justification for including opportunity cost variables such as foreign interest rates foreign inflation rates or expected

pay for percentile we propose an incentive scheme for educators that links compensation to the ranks of their students within comparison sets under certain conditions this scheme induces teachers to allocate socially optimal levels of effort moreover because this scheme employs only ordinal information it allows education authorities to employ completely new assessments at each testing date without ever having to equate various assessments this removes incentives for teachers to teach to a particular assessment form and eliminates opportunities to influence reward pay by corrupting assessment scales education authorities can employ separate no stakes assessment systems to track trends in scaled measures of student achievement jel i21 i28 j33 j45

beer and the tie did divestiture of brewer owned public houses lead to higher beer prices in 1989 the united kingdom monopolies and mergers commission mmc recommended measures that eventually led brewers to divest themselves of 14 000 public houses the mmc claimed that their recommendations would lower retail prices and increase consumer choice since that time however retail prices have risen this paper contains an econometric analysis of the transition period the analysis is based on a model of the relationship between retail price and retail organisational form that emphasises how exclusive dealing clauses and strategic factors interact in 1989 in an important decision the united kingdom monopolies and mergers commission mmc recommended measures that eventually led brewers to divest themselves of 14 000 public houses the mmc claimed that their recommendations would lower retail prices and increase consumer choice there is considerable doubt however that their objectives were achieved indeed since the time that the recommendations were implemented retail prices have risen it is not clear however if prices would have increased in the absence of divestiture one goal of my research is to provide an answer to this question the mmc s recommendations created an exceptional opportunity to assess the effects that different contractual arrangements have on retail prices indeed one would like to investigate this relationship ceteris paribus unfortunately however the choice of vertical market structure is normally endogenous and it is impossible to condition on all of the factors that affect the contracting decision in the uk beer industry in contrast the government ordered changes in the type and terms of the contracts under which national brewers could operate their licensed premises increased separation between brewer and publican therefore was not due to changes in economic conditions moreover some premises the free houses that were not owned by a brewer were not affected by the beer orders the existence of a control group facilitates the analysis by strengthening the conclusions that one can draw in recent years economists have moved away from simple theories of vertical

leveraging lotteries for school value added testing and estimation conventional value added models vams compare average test scores across schools after regression adjusting for students demographic characteristics and previous scores this article tests for vam bias using a procedure that asks whether vam estimates accurately predict the achievement consequences of random assignment to specific schools test results from admissions lotteries in boston suggest conventional vam estimates are biased a finding that motivates the development of a hierarchical model describing the joint distribution of school value added bias and lottery compliance we use this model to assess the substantive importance of bias in conventional vam estimates and to construct hybrid value added estimates that optimally combine ordinary least squares and lottery based estimates of vam parameters the hybrid estimation strategy provides a general recipe for combining nonexperimental and quasi experimental estimates while still biased hybrid school value added estimates have lower mean squared error than conventional vam estimates simulations calibrated to the boston data show that bias notwithstanding policy decisions based on conventional vams that control for lagged achievement are likely to generate substantial achievement gains hybrid estimates that incorporate lotteries yield further gains

on credible delegation by oligopolists a discussion of distribution channel management several papers in the recent marketing literature have suggested that delegation in distribution e g the use of independent middlemen helps manufacturers to precommit strategically to profit enhancing competitive actions further the literature suggests that the profitability of such actions depends on market structure we challenge these conclusions here this is done in two steps first we perform an analysis of the entire class of models which have been used in the literature using internally consistent assumptions about market structure and contracting the only subgame perfect equilibrium is one in which all distribution channels have infinitely many levels of delegation obviously this is not what we see in the real world next we relax a key hidden assumption namely that all intra channel agreements are observable to competitors without this assumption the usual results unravel unless channel members can offer credible guarantees that unobservable agreements do not exist the strategic effects of delegation disappear since these guarantees are virtually impossible to maintain credibly we would expect to reject the hypothesis in the earlier literature relating channel structure to competition in an empirical study controlling for observability we conclude that mechanisms other than strategic ones must be responsible for the existence of delegated channels and make some suggestions about promising avenues for future theory research in channel structure

accountability incentives and behavior the impact of high stakes testing in the chicago public schools the recent federal education bill no child left behind requires states to test students in grades 3 to 8 each year and to judge school performance on the basis of these test scores while intended to maximize student learning there is little empirical evidence about the effectiveness of such policies this study examines the impact of an accountability policy implemented in the chicago public schools in 1996 1997 using a panel of student level administrative data i find that math and reading achievement increased sharply following the introduction of the accountability policy in comparison to both prior achievement trends in the district and to changes experienced by other large urban districts in the mid west however for younger students the policy did not increase performance on a state administered low stakes exam an item level analysis suggests that the observed achievement gains were driven by increases in test specific skills and student effort i also find that teachers responded strategically to the incentives along a variety of dimensions by increasing special education placements preemptively retaining students and substituting away from low stakes subjects like science and social studies

the effects of school spending on educational and economic outcomes evidence from school finance reforms since the coleman report many have questioned whether public school spending affects student outcomes the school finance reforms that began in the early 1970s and accelerated in the 1980s caused dramatic changes to the structure of k 12 education spending in the united states to study the effect of these school finance reform induced changes in public school spending on long run adult outcomes we link school spending and school finance reform data to detailed nationally representative data on children born between 1955 and 1985 and followed through 2011 we use the timing of the passage of court mandated reforms and their associated type of funding formula change as exogenous shifters of school spending and we compare the adult outcomes of cohorts that were differentially exposed to school finance reforms depending on place and year of birth event study and instrumental variable models reveal that a 10 increase in per pupil spending each year for all 12 years of public school leads to 0 31 more completed years of education about 7 higher wages and a 3 2 percentage point reduction in the annual incidence of adult poverty effects are much more pronounced for children from low income families exogenous spending increases were associated with notable improvements in measured school inputs including reductions in student to teacher ratios increases in teacher salaries and longer school years jel codes j10 i20 h7

international currency substitution and the income velocity of money abstract this paper presents new empirical evidence on the degree to which international currency substitution destabilizes domestic money demand it also provides an explanation of some apparent discrepancies among previous empirical studies of currency substitution this explanation hinges on the distinction between the elasticity of currency substitution and the cross elasticity of money demand a large small value of one elasticity does not imply a large small value of the other a large cross elasticity is required for currency substitution to destabilize domestic money demand the empirical evidence presented here is consistent with the view that these cross elasticities are typically small

human capital and the supply of religion abstract we study the role of labor inputs in religious attendance using data on oklahoma methodist congregations from 1961 to 2003 pastors play a significant role in church growth replacing a 25th percentile pastor with a 75th percentile one increases annual attendance growth by 3 a pastor s performance in his or her first church largely the result of random assignment predicts future performance suggesting a causal effect of pastors on growth the deployment of pastors by the church indicates efficient use of labor low performing pastors are more likely to be rotated or exit the sample and high performing pastors are moved to larger congregations

identifying the elasticity of taxable income we use matched panels from the current population survey along with a grouping instrumental variables estimator to provide new estimates of the elasticity of taxable income our identification strategy exploits the fact that federal and state tax reforms over the past three decades have differentially affected cohorts across states and over time we find that the elasticity is in the range of 0 4 0 55 the implication of our new estimates for tax policy is that the revenue maximising tax rate is nearly 30 percentage points lower than that obtained when we use the typical identification strategy in the literature

observable contracts strategic delegation and cooperation the role of commitments in noncooperative games is well acknowledged and documented one way to achieve commitments is by letting delegates represent the players of a game in this paper the authors study a delegation game in which the players can use agents strategically to play on their behalf and the contracts they sign with them are common knowledge they show that in such cases every pareto optimal outcome of the game can become the unique subgame perfect nash equilibrium of the delegation game the authors demonstrate this result by discussing the cournot type duopolistic game copyright 1991 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

using performance on the job to inform teacher tenure decisions the notion that some high stakes need to be attached to direct measures of teachers class room performance as a control for quality in the work force is an idea gaining traction in public education one such proposal prescribes low ering the barriers to entry into teaching while simultaneously being more selective about which teachers are retained when they become eligible for tenure robert gordon thomas j kane and douglas o staiger 2006 eric a hanushek 2009

strategic outsourcing revisited this paper analyzes a sequential game where firms decide about outsourcing the production of a non specific input good to an imperfectly competitive input market we apply the taxonomy of business strategies introduced by fudenberg and tirole 1984 to characterize the different equilibria and find that outsourcing generally softens competition in the final product market if firms anticipate the impact of their outsourcing decisions on input prices there may be equilibria where firms outsource so as to collude or to raise rivals costs we illustrate our analysis using a linear cournot model

searching for effective teachers with imperfect information teaching may be the most scrutinized occupation in the economy over the eaching may be the most scrutinized occupation in the economy over the past four decades empirical researchers many of them economists have past four decades empirical researchers many of them economists have accumulated an impressive amount of evidence on teachers the heteroaccumulated an impressive amount of evidence on teachers the heterogeneity in teacher productivity the rise in productivity associated with teaching geneity in teacher productivity the rise in productivity associated with teaching credentials and on the job experience rates of turnover the costs of recruitment credentials and on the job experience rates of turnover the costs of recruitment the relationship between supply and quality the effect of class size and the monetary the relationship between supply and quality the effect of class size and the monetary value of academic achievement gains over a student s lifetime since the passage value of academic achievement gains over a student s lifetime since the passage of the no child left behind act along with a number of state level educational of the no child left behind act along with a number of state level educational initiatives the data needed to estimate individual teacher performance based on initiatives the data needed to estimate individual teacher performance based on student achievement gains have become more widely available however there have student achievement gains have become more widely available however there have been relatively few efforts to examine the implications of this voluminous literature been relatively few efforts to examine the implications of this voluminous literature on teacher performance in this paper we ask what the existing evidence implies on teacher performance in this paper we ask what the existing evidence implies for how school leaders might recruit evaluate and retain teachers for how school leaders might recruit evaluate and retain teachers we begin by summarizing the evidence on fi ve key points referring to existing we begin by summarizing the evidence on fi ve key points referring to existing work and to evidence we have accumulated from our research with the nation s work and to evidence we have accumulated from our research with the nation s two largest school districts los angeles and new york city first teachers display two largest school districts los angeles and new york city first teachers display considerable heterogeneity in their effects on student achievement gains the stanconsiderable heterogeneity in their effects on student achievement gains the standard deviation across teachers in their impact on student achievement gains is on dard deviation across teachers in their impact on student achievement gains is on the order of 0 1 to 0 2 student level standard deviations which would improve the the order of 0 1 to 0 2 student level standard deviations which would improve the

resale price maintenance and restrictions on dominant firm and industry wide adoption abstract we consider a model in which firms use resale price maintenance rpm to dampen competition we find that even though the motive for using rpm is thus anti competitive market forces may limit the overall adverse impact on consumers indeed we find that when there are a large number of firms in the market consumer welfare under a laissez faire policy might be as high or almost as high as it would be under an alternative policy in which rpm is banned government interventions that put an upper limit on the extent of industry wide adoption of rpm can have adverse welfare effects in the model we further show that proposed guidelines in the united states and europe may come close to minimizing welfare

using school choice lotteries to test measures of school effectiveness abstract value added models vams are increasingly used to measure school effectiveness yet random variation in school attendance is necessary to test the validity of vams and to guide the selection of models for measuring causal effects of schools in this paper i use random assignment from a public school choice lottery to test the predictive power of vam specifications in vams with minimal controls and two or more years of prior data i fail to reject the hypothesis that school effects are unbiased overall many commonly used vams are accurate predictors of student achievement gains

excessive retailing at the bertrand equilibria in oligopolistic markets where competition is in prices producers may prefer to be represented by agents that sell their products even if those agents do not provide any direct services to promote the sale of the product and even if contracting is costly contracting with the agents serves as a medium to relieve competitive pressures in the product market the benefit that a single firm derives from contracting is an increasing function of the number of firms that have already contracted with agents hence if the contracting cost is relatively low there exists a unique equilibrium where all firms contract with agents

the strategic value of partial vertical integration we investigate the strategic incentives for partial vertical integration namely partial ownership agreements between manufacturers and retailers when retailers privately know their costs and engage in price competition with differentiated goods the partial misalignment between the profit objectives within a partially integrated manufacturer retailer hierarchy implies a higher retail price than under full integration this information vertical effect translates into a competition horizontal effect the partially integrated hierarchy s commitment to a higher price induces the competitor to increase its price which strategically relaxes competition our analysis provides implications for vertical merger policy and theoretical support for the recently documented empirical evidence on partial vertical acquisitions

pension enhancements and the retention of public employees the authors use data from workers in the largest public sector occupation in the united states teaching to examine the effect of pension enhancements on employee retention specifically they study

experimental estimates of education production functions this paper analyzes data on 11 600 students and their teachers who were randomly assigned to different size classes from kindergarten through third grade statistical methods are used to adjust for nonrandom attrition and transitions between classes the main conclusions are 1 on average performance on standardized tests increases by four percentile points the first year students attend small classes 2 the test score advantage of students in small classes expands by about one percentile point per year in subsequent years 3 teacher aides and measured teacher characteristics have little effect 4 class size has a larger effect for minority students and those on free lunch 5 hawthorne effects were unlikely

intimidating competitors endogenous vertical integration and downstream investment in successive oligopoly this paper examines the interplay of endogenous vertical integration and cost reducing downstream investment in successive oligopoly analyzing a linear cournot model we establish the following key results i vertical integration increases own investment and decreases competitor investment intimidation effect ii asymmetric integration is a non degenerate equilibrium outcome iii compared to a benchmark model without investment complete vertical separation is a less likely outcome we argue that these findings generalize beyond the linear cournot model under reasonable assumptions

money demand and currency and asset substitucion in venezuela 1997 2008 this study aims to estimate using quarterly data a money demand function for venezuela with the phenomena of currency substitution cs and asset substitution as during the period 1997 1 2008 4 this model is based on the one proposed by cuddington 1983 and modified by mizel and pentecost 1994 the empirical evidence shows that during the period the phenomenon of dollarization is present there has been a change in the functions of money as a store of value as and as a medium of exchange cs when m2 is used in aggregates more liquid m1 dollarization is observed only for currency substitution

long lasting effects of socialist education abstract political regimes influence the content of education and criteria used to select and evaluate students we study the impact of a socialist education on the likelihood of obtaining a college degree and on several labor market outcomes by exploiting the reorganization of the school system in east germany after reunification our identification strategy uses cutoff birth dates for school enrollment that lead to variation in the length of exposure to the socialist education system within the same birth cohort an additional year of socialist education decreases the probability of obtaining a college degree and affects longer term labor market outcomes for men

school vouchers a survey of the economics literature we review the theoretical computational and empirical research on school vouchers with a focus on the latter our assessment is that the evidence to date is not sufficient to warrant recommending that vouchers be adopted on a widespread basis however multiple positive findings support continued exploration specifically the empirical research on small scale programs does not suggest that awarding students a voucher is a systematically reliable way to improve educational outcomes and some detrimental effects have been found nevertheless in some settings or for some subgroups or outcomes vouchers can have a substantial positive effect on those who use them studies of large scale voucher programs find student sorting as a result of their implementation although of varying magnitude evidence on both small scale and large scale programs suggests that competition induced by vouchers leads public schools to improve moreover research is making progress on understanding how vouchers may be designed to limit adverse effects from sorting while preserving positive effects related to competition finally our sense is that work originating in a single case e g a given country or in a single research approach e g experimental designs will not provide a full understanding of voucher effects fairly wide ranging empirical and theoretical work will be necessary to make progress

currency substitution and monetary autonomy the foreign demand for us demand deposits abstract this paper presents new evidence of currency substitution using the two step estimator of cointegrated systems developed by engle and granger 1987 we estimate and find cointegration among variables suggested by the money services model of currency substitution following engle et al 1989 we estimate an error correction model for each of five countries allowing isolation of long term from short term influences on the foreign demand for us demand deposits our results suggest that currency substitution is a potentially significant phenomenon influencing long term monetary policy independence

currency substitution and instability in the world dollar standard comment myron ross correctly points out in his comment that u s price inflation is better predicted by the american money supply mlus than by the broader ten country world money supply mlw over the whole statistical time series from 1960 to 1980 provided in mckinnon s 1982 article specifically he showed that american price inflation is more highly correlated with mlus lagged one or two years than with mlw similarly lagged however mckinnon s present tense assertion that in general growth in the world money supply is a better predictor of american price inflation than is american money growth applies only to the weak dollar standard of the 1970 s and early 1980 s as his preceding discussion intended but failed to indicate clearly only in this later period of volatile exchange rates and price level instability in the united states do alternative hard currencies such as the yen and deutsche mark become competitive as international stores of value and units of account hence international currency substitution associated with the ebb and flow of speculation against or for the dollar significantly destabilized the demand for mlus in the 1970 s and 1980 s and only in this later period might one expect the sum of these internationally substitutable monies ml to predict world and perhaps even american price inflation better than does mlus in contrast during the strong dollar standard of the 1950 s and 1960 s the dollar was unchallenged as international money exchange rates were by and large convincingly fixed speculation for or against the dollar was incapable of substantially altering u s interest rates or of directly affecting the demand for mlus because cyclical international influences did not then destabilize the demand for dollars mlus was by itself a fairly efficient predictor of american prices thus ross s statistical results for the period 1960 to 1980 show somewhat greater predictive strength in mlus compared to ml because the 1960 s data outweigh the dissimilar data of the 1970 s let us instead partition the sample of imf data around the year 1970 whence began the transition from fixed to fluctuating exchange rates and the maturation of alternative monetary systems in europe and japan after applying similar statistical correlation procedures to those used by ross we show a striking structural shift in the world s monetary system the explanatory power of mlw increases sharply as that of mlus declines moderately tan 1982 for the early period of 1960 to 1970 table 1 shows simple correlation coefficients between annual percentage changes in money supplies and changes in american and world wholesale price indices the mlus provides a good explanation of u s prices and of world prices one to two years hence whereas the broader definition of mlw in which mlus enters with a 50 percent weight does surprisingly poorly being insignificantly correlated with american or world prices apparently money growth in industrial countries other than the united states was not then an independent source of worldwide inflationary pressure during the strong dollar standard table 2 shows the same simple correlations between percentage changes in prices and money for the weak dollar standard of stanford university please note that a typographical error giving the last word in the original title as market appeared on the cover of the june 1982 issue of this review the title was correct in the table of contents and on the article

currency substitution under finance constraints the perfect foresight continuous time couterpart of lucas and stokey s cash in advance model is generalized to the case of two currencies the money demand function for eac currency has as arguments the endowments of goods associated with each denomination various monetary shocks are investigated including permanent and temporary changes in levels and growth rates it is shown that substitution can be an important factor in explaining the possible negative transmission of inflation the amount of volatility of exchange rates and the degree tp which exchange rate movements approximate a random walk

the effects of exposure to better neighborhoods on children new evidence from the moving to opportunity experiment the moving to opportunity mto experiment offered randomly selected families housing vouchers to move from high poverty housing projects to lower poverty neighborhoods we analyze mto s impacts on children s long term outcomes using tax data we find that moving to a lower poverty neighborhood when young before age 13 increases college attendance and earnings and reduces single parenthood rates moving as an adolescent has slightly negative impacts perhaps because of disruption effects the decline in the gains from moving with the age when children move suggests that the duration of exposure to better environments during childhood is an important determinant of children s long term outcomes jel i31 i38 j13 r23 r38

how does your kindergarten classroom affect your earnings evidence from project star in project star 11 571 students in tennessee and their teachers were randomly assigned to classrooms within their schools from kindergarten to third grade this article evaluates the long term impacts of star by linking the experimental data to administrative records we first demonstrate that kindergarten test scores are highly correlated with outcomes such as earnings at age 27 college attendance home ownership and retirement savings we then document four sets of experimental impacts first students in small classes are significantly more likely to attend college and exhibit improvements on other outcomes class size does not have a significant effect on earnings at age 27 but this effect is imprecisely estimated second students who had a more experienced teacher in kindergarten have higher earnings third an analysis of variance reveals significant classroom effects on earnings students who were randomly assigned to higher quality classrooms in grades k 3 as measured by classmates end of class test scores have higher earnings college attendance rates and other outcomes finally the effects of class quality fade out on test scores in later grades but gains in noncognitive measures persist

retail contracting theory and practice we summarize a number of regularities that arise in the empirical literature on contractual relationships between manufacturers and their exclusive resellers we do this using studies of traditional and business format franchise relationships as well as studies of salesforce integration decisions some of the patterns that we uncover are consistent with a standard incentive cum insurance theory of organization while others are not we brie y review some theoretical extensions that seem promising in terms of reconciling seeming con icts between theory and practice i introduction manufacturers of retail products must decide whether to sell their products to consumers themselves vertical integration or to sell via independent retailers vertical separation when manufacturers do not perform the sales function internally but want exclusive retailers they usually choose some form of franchising 1 many theories attempt to explain the choice of retail organizational form moreover a considerable body of empirical evidence concerning this choice is accumulating we attempt to evaluate this econometric evidence and relate it to the theories to accomplish this task we assess studies of franchising arrangements as well as studies of sales force organization in industrial settings the paper is organized as follows in the next section we highlight a number of regularities that arise in the empirical literature on retail contracting in particular we nd that i risk is positively related to the use of high powered incentives vertical separation ii the importance of the agent s eiort in production is positively related to the use of high powered incentives

the strategic choice of managerial incentives do firms with separate owners and managers maximize profits we address this question for an oligopoly where managers compete in quantities or prices as in the cournot or bertrand models and owners choose their managers incentives we find that there is a strategic aspect in the problem of selecting incentives and that profit maximizing behavior does not result in particular in the oligopoly we study the behavior of firms competing in quantity price more closely resembles perfectly competitive collusive behavior than cournot bertrand behavior

evaluating the empirical evidence for currency substitution a case study of the demand for sterling in europe currency substitution has important implications for the cost of european monetary union if it is significant it will help to reduce costs of convergence to a single currency this paper informs the policy debate by testing for its existence on a consistent european database making use of cointegration methods the results demonstrate that in the two types of models tested there is no clear evidence of currency substitution in either the short or the long run and that therefore currency substitution between sterling and ec currencies cannot be relied upon as a mechanism or an aid to reduce the costs of monetary convergence copyright 1994 by royal economic society

long term impacts of childhood medicaid expansions on outcomes in adulthood we use administrative data from the internal revenue service to examine long term impacts of childhood medicaid eligibility expansions on outcomes in adulthood at each age from 19 to 28 greater medicaid eligibility increases college enrolment and decreases fertility especially through age 21 starting at age 23 females have higher contemporaneous wage income although male increases are imprecise together both genders have lower mortality these adults collect less from the earned income tax credit and pay more in taxes cumulatively from ages 19 to 28 at a 3 discount rate the federal government recoups 58 cents of each dollar of its investment in childhood medicaid

evaluating public programs with close substitutes the case of head start this paper empirically evaluates the cost effectiveness of head start the largest early childhood education program in the united states using data from the randomized head start impact study hsis we show that head start draws a substantial share of its participants from competing preschool programs that receive public funds this both attenuates measured experimental impacts on test scores and reduces the program s net social costs a cost benefit analysis demonstrates that accounting for the public savings associated with reduced enrollment in other subsidized preschools can reverse negative assessments of the program s social rate of return estimates from a semi parametric selection model indicate that head start is about as effective at raising test scores as competing preschools and that its impacts are greater on children from families unlikely to participate in the program efforts to expand head start to new populations are therefore likely to boost the program s social rate of return provided that the proposed technology for increasing enrollment is not too costly

does the market value value added evidence from housing prices after a public release of school and teacher value added value added data are an increasingly common evaluation tool for schools and teachers many school districts have adopted these methods and released the results publicly in this paper we study the release of value added data in los angeles by the los angeles times newspaper to identify how measured value added is capitalized into housing prices this analysis is the first in the us school valuation literature to examine property value responses to a value added information shock which is of interest as this measure is less correlated with demographics than typical school quality measures unique to this setting as well is the release of both school and teacher level value added data which allows us to examine how property values respond to both types of information using a difference indifferences methodology surrounding the release we find that neither school nor teacher value added scores are capitalized into home prices our results suggest that despite the contentiousness following these data releases homeowners do not consider value added models as currently constructed to be a relevant school quality measure on the margin

strategic aspects of vertical delegation abstract this paper offers an overview of the strategic aspects of situations where either institutionally or contractually a firm delegates some of its decisions to another firm a subsidiary an internal division etc delegation may have several kinds of strategic benefits in the short term it may improve the competitive position of the firm or induce a more lenient behavior from its competitors in the long run it may be used to deter the entry of potential competitors to foreclose market access or to induce actual competitors to exit the paper analyzes the trade off between these possible benefits and the agency costs of delegation and emphasizes the key issues of credibility and commitment

liquidity affects job choice evidence from teach for america can access to a few hundred dollars of liquidity affect the career choice of a recent college graduate in a three year field experiment with teach for america tfa a prestigious teacher placement program we randomly increase the financial packages offered to nearly 7 300 potential teachers who requested support for the transition into teaching the first two years of the experiment reveal that although most applicants do not respond to a marginal 600 of grants or loans those in the worst financial position respond by joining tfa at higher rates we continue the experiment into the third year and self replicate our results for the highest need applicants an extra 600 in loans 600 in grants and 1 200 in grants increase the likelihood of joining tfa by 12 2 11 4 and 17 1 percentage points or 20 0 18 7 and 28 1 respectively additional grant and loan dollars are equally effective suggesting a liquidity mechanism a follow up survey bolsters the liquidity story and also shows that those drawn into teaching would have otherwise worked in private sector firms

foreign inflation transmission under flexible exchange rates and currency substitution the dynamic and steady state effects of a permanent unanticipated increase in foreign inflation on a small open economy are analyzed under flexible exchange rates and currency substitution the velocity of domestic money and consequently the domestic inflation rate may rise along the transition path to steady state but only if demand for foreign currency is sufficiently elastic such that the substitution from foreign to domestic money on impact is large higher foreign inflation is transmitted negatively when demand is inelastic all else constant a higher initial level of foreign real balances increases the magnitude of the transmission effects copyright 1990 by ohio state university press

vertical mergers and market foreclosure ythe model in this paper illustrates three effects of vertical mergers when both stages are oligopolistic and vertically integrated and unintegrated producers coexist first the merging firm increases its final good output second the resulting backward shift in the residual demand curve facing unintegrated final good producers ylowers their demand for the intermediate good third the merged firm withdraws from the intermediate good market the increased concentration pushes the intermediate good price upward which effect dominates depends on market structure under some conditions a vertical merger causes the price of the final good to increase

the effects of poor neonatal health on children s cognitive development we make use of a new data resource merged birth and school records for all children born in florida from 1992 to 2002 to study the relationship between birth weight and cognitive development using singletons as well as twin and sibling fixed effects models we find that the effects of early health on cognitive development are essentially constant through the school career that these effects are similar across a wide range of family backgrounds and that they are invariant to measures of school quality we conclude that the effects of early health on adult outcomes are therefore set very early

the impacts of teacher working conditions and human capital on student achievement evidence from brazilian longitudinal data abstractwe use a new longitudinal matched student teacher data from brazil to examine the impacts of teacher human capital and working conditions on student learning controlling for student teache

currency substitution capital mobility and money demand abstract this paper re examines the currency substitution cs issue by specifying a general portfolio balance pb model where domestic residents demand for foreign money is distinguished from their demands for foreign non monetary assets the latter possibility which reflects international capital mobility as opposed to cs per se is already a key feature in the open economy macro literature the inclusion of foreign money leaves the usual asset demand functions unchanged in the pb model that ignores cs at least as far as the appropriate rate of return arguments and their signs are concerned although this suggests that cs is of limited importance in macro modelling it implication for the estimation of money demand functions is pursued an initial attempt is made to empirically isolate the separate efects of high capital mobility and currency substitution for canada germany the united kingdom and the united states the results while not conclusive due to high multicollinearity problems bring into question the empirical as well as the theoretical relevance of currency substitution

the long run effects of reducing early school tracking abstract this paper studies the effects of a french detracking reform on individuals long run education and labor market outcomes the reform delayed the age at which students were separated into vocational and general education by two years from age 11 to 13 the assignment of students to different types of education at age 11 was instead replaced by ability grouping whereby students followed a common general education curriculum but were divided into different classrooms based on their academic achievement using a regression discontinuity design i find that the reform raised individuals level of education and increased their wages by 6 at ages 40 to 45 these effects are concentrated among men and individuals from low socioeconomic backgrounds however the reform solely benefited individuals whose parents were born in france as it did not significantly affect children of immigrants educational and labor market outcomes

generalizations about using value added measures of teacher quality the extensive investigation of the contribution of teachers to student achievement produces two generally accepted results first there is sub stantial variation in teacher quality as measured by the value added to achievement or future aca demic attainment or earnings second variables often used to determine entry into the profession and salaries including post graduate schooling experience and licensing examination scores appear to explain little of the variation in teacher quality so measured with the exception of early experience together these findings underscore explicitly that observed teacher characteristics do not represent teacher quality

measuring the impacts of teachers comment chetty friedman and rockoff 2014a b study value added va measures of teacher effectiveness cfr 2014a exploits teacher switching as a quasi experiment concluding that student sorting creates negligible bias in va scores cfr 2014b finds va scores are useful proxies for teachers effects on students long run outcomes i successfully reproduce each in north carolina data but i find that the quasi experiment is invalid as teacher switching is correlated with changes in student preparedness adjusting for this i find moderate bias in va scores perhaps 10 35 percent as large in variance terms as teachers causal effects long run results are sensitive to controls and cannot support strong conclusions

school district operational spending and student outcomes evidence from tax elections in seven states abstract we use close tax elections to estimate the impact of school district funding increases on operational spending and student outcomes across seven states districts with passing levies directed new revenue toward support services and instructor salaries but did not increase teacher staffing levels these districts eventually realized gains in student achievement and attainment our preferred estimates imply that increasing operational spending by 1000 per pupil increased test scores by approximately 0 15 of a standard deviation and graduation rates by approximately 9 percentage points there is some evidence of diminishing returns as these effects are driven by districts below the median in spending per pupil based on research linking academic outcomes to earnings we conclude that these spending increases were likely cost effective

preferences selection and value added a structural approach abstract what do applicants take into consideration when choosing a high school to what extent do schools contribute to their students academic success to answer these questions we model students preferences and obtain average valuation placed on each school we then investigate what drives these valuations by carefully controlling for endogeneity using a set of creative instruments suggested by our model we find that valuation is based on a school s location its selectivity as measured by its cutoff score value added and past performance in university entrance exams however cutoffs affect school valuation an order of magnitude more than does value added

the dampening of competition effect of exclusive dealing using the dampening of competition approach to understanding vertical relationships this paper shows that in the absence of intrabrand retailer competition firms earn greater profits using exclusive dealing the paper explains the frequent simultaneous appearance of exclusive dealing and exclusive territoriality the results are used to analyze the famous 1949 standard stations case the author concludes that the 1949 court did the right thing for a wrong reason copyright 1990 by blackwell publishing ltd

priceless the nonpecuniary benefits of schooling copyright 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 by the american economic association permission to make digital or hard copies of part or all of american economic association publications for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not distributed for profit or direct commercial advantage and that copies show this notice on the first page or initial screen of a display along with the full citation including the name of the author copyrights for components of this work owned by others than aea must be honored abstracting with credit is permitted the author has the right to republish post on servers redistribute to lists and use any component of this work in other works for others to do so requires prior specific permission and or a fee permissions may be requested from the american economic association administrative office by going to the contact us form and choosing copyright permissions request from the menu copyright 2016 aea

offshoring and outsourcing in a global supply chain impact of the arm s length regulation on transfer pricing abstract we consider the structure of a global supply chain for operational decisions in a multinational firm mnf with tax considerations the mnf consists of two divisions one for production and the other for retailing while the retail division of the mnf and the market for its product is located in a domestic country the production division may be located in either the domestic high tax country or a foreign low tax country when the two divisions of a mnf are co located in the domestic country the firm enjoys the benefit of a centralized operational decision on the order quantity to maximize its total profit although there is no tax saving opportunity on the other hand a mnf can enjoy a tax saving benefit when offshoring its production division to a low tax country although its operational decision on the order quantity is decentralized which is harmful to the supply chain profit due to double marginalization the mnf may further pursue the low procurement cost of its retail division by allowing the retail division to search for an outsourcing opportunity from an outside supplier however outsourcing can hurt the profit of the mnf from the loss of the production division due to competition with outside suppliers we analyze the trade offs in the mnf s optimal choice of supply chain structure in addition we incorporate a regulation on the mnf s internal transaction by tax authorities which is commonly called the arm s length regulation we study how the mnf s choice of the operational structure of its supply chain changes in consideration of this regulation our results suggest that tax considerations deserve attention from managers when designing the supply chain structure

sources of geographic variation in health care evidence from patient migration we study the drivers of geographic variation in us health care utilization using an empirical strategy that exploits migration of medicare patients to separate the role of demand and supply factors our approach allows us to account for demand differences driven by both observable and unobservable patient characteristics within our sample of over 65 medicare beneficiaries we find that 40 50 percent of geographic variation in utilization is attributable to demand side factors including health and preferences with the remainder due to place specific supply factors jel h51 i1 i11