value chain dynamics settlement trajectories and regional development fold n value chain dynamics settlement trajectories and regional development regional studies global value chain gvc analysis has little to say about the interaction between regions and global chain dynamics however recent calls to address broader development issues have resulted in efforts to incorporate a spatial dimension in gvc analysis addressing this issue the paper argues that gvc analysis needs to be combined with the examination of livelihoods at settlement level livelihood diversification or lack thereof indicates particular settlement trajectories that constitute regional development pathways it is also suggested that the understanding of how regions are shaped by value chain dynamics will improve by adding elements from global production network gpn theory to the combined methodology namely by an examination of territorial embeddedness and value creation enhancement capture distribution at settlement level

upgrading in global value chains lessons from latin american clusters it has been shown that clustering helps local enterprises in industrial districts overcome growth constraints and compete in distant markets in advanced and less developed countries nevertheless recent contributions have stressed that more attention needs to be paid to external linkages and to the role played by global buyers to foster upgrading at cluster levels in this study we contribute to this debate focusing on the analysis of the relationships existing between clustering global value chains upgrading and sectoral patterns of innovation in latin america we find that sectoral specificities matter and influence the mode and the extent of upgrading in clusters integrated in global value chains

discounting in integrated assessments of climate change one of the key decisions that economists working on integrated studies of climate change face is the selection of the method of accounting for damages resulting from possible climate change across a long temporal scale and the method for the intertemporal comparison of the costs associated with possible greenhouse gas abatement strategies sensitivity tests show that the method applied and the resulting discount rate has a major impact on the optimal climate strategy the paper is intended to provide a short review of the various techniques that have been proposed and applied in various integrated models of climate change the underlying problem is as follows we can attempt to be consistent with the economic theory and empirical observations but in this case the derived discount rate will be on the order of 5 to 8 as a result even possibly significant damages from climate change turn out to be negligible when considered at their present value the artificially low discount rate based on ethical reasoning on the other hand makes our climate related decisions and resource allocations inconsistent with the majority of other public policy decisions

upgrading primary production a global commodity chain approach abstract global commodity chain gcc analysis has been concerned mainly with examining power relations in global manufacturing industries although it has been preoccupied increasingly by the question of how developing country dc producers can upgrade this paper extends gcc analysis to traditional primary commodities where international traders exercise the driving role and suggests a new agenda for their upgrading in dcs based upon public action

valuing the impact of co2 emissions valuing the impacts of co2 emissions to the atmosphere has been widely debated with various studies suggesting very different costs when expressed in units of dollar per tonne of carbon emitted there are many complex issues involved and it is often difficult to determine the reasons for the wide range of costs proposed in this paper models based on two very different approaches the page and intera models are considered by applying these models to calculating the marginal impact of co2 emissions it is shown that what appear initially to be divergent estimates can be reconciled this process illustrates some of the key issues in this area and a perspective is provided on which marginal costs are appropriate for different policy decisions

which way is up in upgrading trajectories of change in the value chain for south african wine summary global value chain gvc analysis uses the concept of upgrading to highlight paths for developing country firms to move up the value chain usually through the lenses of four categories product process functional and inter sectoral upgrading the implicit normative expectation is that these firms move toward producing higher value added products and or take on more sophisticated functions along a value chain in this article upgrading is approached more broadly as reaching a better deal including a balance between rewards and risk the case study of south african wine shows that better product quality improved processes and some functional upgrading have co existed with processes of downgrading higher risks and limited rewards especially in traditional export markets a reflection on further conceptual development and directions for empirical research is also provided

institutional change in value chains evidence from tea in nepal local conditions in developing countries have long played a part in determining whether their small scale firms can benefit from deepening their participation in global value chains gvcs institutional theory allows us to characterize these local conditions not simply as particularistic oddities but rather as elements of an institutional matrix that affects the livelihoods of chain participants however the institutional dimension of gvc analysis has been traditionally neglected in the literature to the detriment of our understanding of the impacts of upgrading in gvcs this study aims to remedy this failure by illustrating how institutional context mediates between value chain upgrading and the livelihoods of chain participants it particular it seeks to elucidate how value chain upgrading spurs a process of change in the institutions that govern the livelihoods of suppliers in developing countries this examination sheds light on the more general question of how value chain upgrading sometimes helps but sometimes hurts the welfare of chain participants this theoretical contribution to the value chain literature is based upon an institutional analysis of primary qualitative data from more than 80 small scale tea farmers in nepal some of whom had upgraded from conventional to organically certified production our study finds that value chain upgrading launches a process of institutional change that can be summarized in a general typology the typology highlights how rules strategies organizations and informal norms affect whether a given upgrading intervention yields livelihood benefits in a particular place upgrading can yield positive impacts in chain linked livelihood dimensions such as price and yet induce negative changes in other livelihood dimensions such as risk and thereby yield overall adverse livelihood implications in a process we dub immiserizing upgrading these findings contribute to advancing the conceptual literature on global value chains gvcs by suggesting a general typology for cycles of institutional change that influence livelihood outcomes the typology provides a framework to analyze such processes that is also of use to development practitioners seeking to understand the conditions under which upgrading worsens or improves the welfare of value chain participants the research findings provide an interesting window into how certification schemes interact with the daily lives of the rural poor

policy analysis of the greenhouse effect an application of the page model abstract in this paper we introduce a comprehensive model for policy analysis of the greenhouse effect page we apply the page model to assess the merits of policies to prevent global warming by controlling the emissions of greenhouse gases and policies to adapt to any global warming that occurs the results confirm that it is difficult to overcome the problem of global warming by taking preventive action alone the argument for introducing an aggressive adaptive policy is very strong we calculate the valuation that would have to be placed upon non economic environmental and social impacts for a combined strategy of preventive and adaptive policies to be considered a worthwhile option both for individual regions and for the world as a whole we also show that uncertainties in all four groups of inputs to the model scientific costs of control costs of adaptation and valuation of impacts have a great influence on the costs and impacts of the combined strategy

rethinking the costs related to global warming a survey of the issues one approach to the economic analysis of global warming seeks to balance the costs of damage from or adaptation to it with the costs of mitigating it the costs of adaptation and damage have been estimated using techniques of environmental evaluation but are subject to a wide margin of uncertainty the costs of mitigation principally by reducing the emissions of co2 have been estimated using different kinds of economic models some of the results of which have suggested that very little abatement of carbon emissions is justified before the costs of abatement exceed the benefits of it in terms of foregone damage and adaptation costs the paper analyses the extent to which this conclusion is a function of the modelling assumptions and techniques used rather than likely practical outcomes with regard to the models treatment of unemployed resources revenue recycling prior distortions in the economy due to the tax system and possible dynamic effects from the introduction of a carbon energy tax it concludes that with different and arguably more appropriate treatment of the above issues especially when the secondary benefits of reducing co2 emissions are also taken into account it is not clear that even substantial reductions in the use of fossil fuels will incur net costs especially if there is the prospect of even moderate costs from global warming

identity and the economics of organizations on plebes first day at west point called r day they strip down to their underwear their hair is cut off they are put in uniform they then must address an older cadet with the proper salute and with the statement sir new cadet doe reports to the cadet in the red sash for the first time as ordered plebes must stand and salute and repeat and stand and salute and repeat until they get it exactly right all the while being reprimanded for every tiny mistake in the summary of david lipsky 2003 pp 145 154 who spent four years tracking a company of cadets at west point on r day you surrender your old self in stages but r day is just the beginning of the training and personal re engineering that is to come so that west point graduates emerge four years later as loyal officers in the u s army lipsky shows that despite some failure this tough program is remarkably successful in creating officers with the will to lead in battle economists current picture of organizations and work incentives has no place for the west point program and the motivations it seeks to inculcate in recruits in a standard economic model an individual s preferences are fixed and utility depends only on pecuniary variables the army s aim at west point is to change cadets preferences they wish to inculcate non economic motives in the cadets so that they have the same goals as the u s army alternatively stated the goal of west point is to change the identity of the cadets so they will think of themselves above all else as officers in the u s army they will feel bad about themselves they will lose utility if they fall short of the ideals of such an officer this change in identity

nobel laureate robert e lucas jr architect of modern macroeconomics in 1995 robert e lucas was awarded the nobel memorial prize for economic science this review places lucas s work in a historical context and evaluates the effect of this work on the economics profession lucas s central contribution is that he developed and applied economic theory to answer substantive questions in macroeconomics economists today routinely analyze systems in which agents operate in complex probabilistic environments to understand interactions about which the great theorists of an earlier generation could only speculate this sea change is due primarily to lucas

regional differences in china s co2 abatement cost abstract under a framework of output distance function with multiple outputs the study discusses the carbon abatement cost at provincial and regional levels in china using the shadow price analysis the findings show that the abatement cost reflecting the marginal opportunity cost of carbon reduction varies greatly among the provinces on average the abatement cost of the eastern region was much higher than that of the mid western region during the observed period the findings provide evidence that the carbon prices in the current ets pilots have been much lower than desired levels implying inefficiency of the markets the wide range of the abatement cost estimates supports that the equi marginal principle does not hold for the regulations on carbon pollution at regional levels the regional cost differences indicate the huge potential for china to minimize the total abatement cost with policy instruments that may motive the emissions moving from areas of low abatement cost to where the abatement cost is higher for a few undeveloped provinces that are environmentally fragile and have high abatement cost supplementary measures will be needed to reduce the negative impact of carbon cutbacks on the poor to the minimum

successful adjustment in indian industry the case of ludhiana s woolen knitwear cluster abstract this paper examines the case of adjustment in a labor intensive export industry woolen knitwear to understand how traditional sectors in developing regions cope with external crises and rise above them india s woolen knitwear industry concentrated in ludhiana recently survived two crises the collapse of its largest export market the former soviet union and the simultaneous opening up of the domestic market to freer trade after an unusually short downturn the cluster not only recovered rapidly but is increasingly diversifying into more demanding and competitive external markets four factors are key to explaining this surprisingly resilient recovery first the best performing firms had a strong and simultaneous presence in dynamic segments of the domestic market alongside exports this generated key organizational learning and built managerial and production capacities that helped firms adapt quickly to more demanding markets later second an important feature of the learning relationship between first time exporters and their foreign buyers was the small scale nature of contracts and a customization of fit between the producer and the feedback giving intermediary third better performing firms paid equal if not greater attention to making organizational changes in their work practices than to the purchase of new equipment fourth the embedded nature of production networks and the government s past programs to assist local firms have indirectly helped create a dynamic middle tier of locally rooted exporters who appear to be leading the cluster s transformation and modernization

selling success constructing value in conservation and development summary selling success is crucial in conservation and development solutions ideas projects and people must actively be constructed as valuable to get donors and policy makers to buy into them exactly how success travels and becomes capital however is not often explicated using a southern african conservation and development intervention the paper compares positive translation along the project s accountability chain with the broader circulation of positive references to the project s payments for ecosystem services initiative while both illuminate the construction of value in conservation and development the paper concludes that a neoliberal context increasingly emphasizes the latter tactic of epistemic circulation

climate change costs recent advancements in the economic assessment climate change is unique among the consequences of fossil fuel burning in its far reaching impact both spatially and temporally earlier studies estimate the aggregated monetized damage due to climate change at 1 5 to 2 0 of world gdp for 2 co2 the oecd would lose 1 0 to 1 5 of gdp the developing countries 2 0 to 9 0 according to these estimates these figures are not comprehensive and highly uncertain newer studies increasingly emphasize adaptation variability extreme events other non climate change stress factors and the need for integrated assessment of damages as a result differences in impacts between regions and sectors have increased the market impacts in developed countries tended to fall and non market impacts have become increasingly important marginal damages are more interesting from a policy point of view earlier estimates range from about us 5 to us 125 per tonne of carbon with most estimates at the lower end of this range these figures are based on polynomial functions in the level of climate change but the rate of change may be equally important as are the speed of adaptation restoration and value adjustment furthermore future vulnerability to climate change will be different from current vulnerability on the whole the market impacts fall relatively with economic growth while the non market impacts rise relatively with growth

does education improve citizenship evidence from the united states and the united kingdom abstract many studies document an association between schooling and civic participation but none credibly investigate causal links we explore the effect of extra schooling induced through compulsory schooling laws on the likelihood of becoming politically involved in the united states and the united kingdom we find that educational attainment is related to several measures of political interest and involvement in both countries we find a strong and robust relationship between education and voting for the united states but not for the united kingdom our us results approach the uk findings when conditioning on registration possibly indicating that registration rules present a barrier to participation

uncertainty in integrated assessment models modeling with minicam 1 0 abstract human initiated climate change remains one of the major science based public policy issues facing the nations of the world one feature of the issue that inhibits effective decisions is the ubiquity of uncertainty many if not most of the parameters of mathematical relationships that forecast emissions atmospheric processes impacts and effectiveness of countermeasures are uncertain we have added a stochastic simulation capability to the commonly used integrated assessment model minicam 1 0 to analyze the sources of uncertainty and their relative importance and to help devise strategies for depicting and coping with uncertainty the analysis shows that 1 the projected range of uncertainty in global temperature increase during the next century is greater than previously supposed but the central tendency is not dramatically higher 2 many of the major sources of uncertainty previously discussed in the literature remain significant but not all 3 an adaptive policy of act then learn then act appears to offer better prospects for balancing uncertain costs and benefits of controlling greenhouse gas emissions than do rigid precautionary measures and 4 current targets for atmospheric stabilization appear excessively ambitious

geographical indications public goods and sustainable development the roles of actors strategies and public policies summary the protection of geographical indications gis is being explored more and more worldwide as a tool for supporting local sustainable development focusing on wine and coffee value chains this paper will set out in what way gi protection schemes can contribute to the provision of public goods and illustrate how this contribution is being threatened by different failures that may occur within both valorization strategies and legal protection policies by examining how private collective and public interventions front these failures this paper will put forward economic arguments supporting a more comprehensive policy approach to ensure gis contribution to sustainable development

global value chains meet innovation systems are there learning opportunities for developing countries summary the innovation systems is literature tends not to emphasize the crucial impact of international knowledge and innovation exchange and collaboration through for example inter firm and intra firm networks and global value chains gvc in developing countries this aspect is crucial with integration in gvc playing a growing and very important role in accessing knowledge and enhancing learning and innovation however there is no agreement in the literature about how innovation systems and gvc interact and how this interaction is likely to affect enterprise learning three main conclusions emerge from the theoretical analysis and evidence presented in this paper first learning mechanisms can vary widely within the various forms of governance of gvc they can be the result of the pressure to achieve international standards or be facilitated by direct involvement of the value chain leaders when the suppliers competence is low and the risk of failure to comply is high when the competences of the actors in the value chain are complementary learning is mutual and is based on intense face to face interactions second as we open is to foreign sources of knowledge the relationship between gvcs and is is nonlinear and endogenous and mutually affecting on the basis of our model we would expect a well structured and efficient innovation system would help to reduce transaction complexity and enable transactions based on relational forms of gvc governance third the internal governance of gvc is a dynamic phenomenon that is subject to continuous adjustments and changes and the nature of the is affects this co evolution 2011 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

what do we learn from the weather the new climate economy literature a rapidly growing body of research applies panel methods to examine how temperature precipitation and windstorms influence economic outcomes these studies focus on changes in weather realizations over time within a given spatial area and demonstrate impacts on agricultural output industrial output labor productivity energy demand health conflict and economic growth among other outcomes by harnessing exogenous variation over time within a given spatial unit these studies help credibly identify i the breadth of channels linking weather and the economy ii heterogeneous treatment effects across different types of locations and iii nonlinear effects of weather variables this paper reviews the new literature with two purposes first we summarize recent work providing a guide to its methodologies datasets and findings second we consider applications of the new literature including insights for the damage function within models that seek to assess the potential economic effects of future climate change jel c51 d72 o13 q51 q54

democracy and foreign education despite the large amount of private and public resources spent on foreign edu cation there is no systematic evidence that foreign educated individuals foster democracy in their home countries using a unique panel dataset on foreign stu dents starting in the 1950s i show that foreign educated individuals promote democracy in their home country but only if the foreign education is acquired in democratic countries the results are robust to several estimation techniques to different definitions of democracy and to the inclusion of a variety of control variables including democracy in trading partners neighboring countries level of income and level and stock of education jel d72 121 015 do foreign educated individuals play a role in fostering democracy in their home countries despite the large amount of resources spent on financing foreign education there is no systematic study on the effects of foreign education on democracy this paper fills this gap using a dataset on foreign students that includes almost all host and sending countries and spans over 50 years numerous policy initiatives and large investment in the united states are based on the notion that foreign educated students promote democracy in their countries of origin through the fulbright program the us government has financed more than 158 000 foreigners studying in the united states 1 the us government not only finances the education of foreign students but also annually issues more than 250 000 nonimmigrant visas for foreign students more than five million individuals have received visas to study in the united states since 1971 2 us efforts to educate foreign students have produced impressive results 46 current and 165 former heads of governments are products of us higher education foreign leaders educated in the united

sustainability governance of chains and networks a review and future outlook this paper reviews the extent to which sustainability governance has been integrated into the literature on sustainable chains and networks the analysis brings together four main approaches to chains and network studies supply chain management scm global commodity chains gcc global value chains gvcs and global production networks gpns to examine how and the extent to which sustainability and sustainability governance are conceptualised and incorporated into their analytical frameworks the results point to a shift in this combined literature from conceptualising the formation of global chains and networks as sites of inequality under conditions of globalisation towards a renewed vision on the potential of chains as a site for social and environmental reform overall however we conclude that the literature on global chains and networks has not adequately conceptualised distinct modes of sustainability governance in response we offer an amended typology for identifying how firm and non firm actors govern sustainability in chains of chains and through chains in globalised commodity production and consumption the paper finishes with an exploration of the research frontiers challenges and continuing potential of chain and network studies to understand the governance of sustainability and a call for further academic debate on the kinds of integrated governance arrangements necessary for future sustainability reform through hybridised public private economic practice

climate change costs more than we think because people adapt less than we assume abstract human behaviour is commonly optimised in economic models of adaptation to climate change these models assume that people work to maximise profit subject to financial and technological limitations in effect these models simulate adaptive potential in reality adaptation falls short of this potential this shortfall is conceptualised as the adaptation deficit and it has been causing increasing concern this study demonstrates the impacts of the ways by which people s real world adaptive behaviours depart from those assumed under pure optimisation these departures known as adaptation constraints are formalised as numerical preference functions based on an empirical case study in new zealand and they are used to constrain an agent based model of climate change adaptation we show that these empirically specified adaptation constraints reduce profits relative to an optimised specification by roughly one third this demonstrates that unconstrained economic models are likely to significantly underestimate the costs of adaptation to climate change the benefits of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the residual loss and damage that climate change will cause

determinants of democracy a panel study of over 100 countries from 1960 to 1995 finds that improvements in the standard of living predict increase in democracy as measured by a subjective indicator of electoral rights the propensity for democracy rises with per capita gdp primary schooling and a smaller gap between male and female primary attainment for a given standard of living democaracy tends to fall with urbnization and with a greater reliance on natrual resources democracy has little relation to country size but rises with the middle class share of income the apparently strong relation of democracy to colonial heritage mostly disappears when the economic variables are held constant similarly the allowance for these economic variables weakens the interplay between democracy and religious affiliation however negative effects from muslim and non religious affiliations remain intact

economic analysis of foreign education and students abroad abstract the role of knowledge accumulation in economic growth has been well discussed in the literature by assuming the possibility of knowledge import by study abroad this paper presents a growth model of knowledge creation and import this paper also derives testable implications in three aspects of foreign education the choice of host countries by foreign students the number of students abroad from one origin country and the growth effect of foreign education in all these aspects empirical observations agree well with the predictions of the model

international entrepreneurship the pursuit of entrepreneurial opportunities across national borders in this editorial for the special issue on international entrepreneurship we inter relate key concepts about the pursuit of opportunities from the entrepreneurship and international business literatures in doing so we consider the assessment of opportunities as an individual level cognitive activity the construction of opportunity as a firm level innovative activity and the shaping of opportunity as an institutional level structuring activity we then extend the discussion to explore the notion of a distributed global ecosystem of opportunities and opportunity seekers which we believe may provide a platform for valuable future research

comparison of private incentive mechanisms for improving sustainability of filipino tuna fisheries this paper analyzes the influence of three private incentive mechanisms over decision making related to improved sustainability of fishing practices in filipino tuna fisheries the three mechanisms compared are the world wildlife fund for nature s fishery improvement project model marine stewardship council certification and the international seafood sustainability foundation pro active vessel register the main question addressed in this paper is how and to what extent the private incentive mechanisms support the development of fisher capabilities to respond to the requirements set out by these mechanisms applying a global value chain approach to analyze results collected from key actors involved in philippine tuna fishers contributing to both domestic and regional economic development in the western pacific we explore the structure and function of these private incentive mechanisms in achieving both environmental and economic development outcomes our results show that these private incentive mechanisms deliver different direct and indirect incentives for changing to more sustainable fishing practices and that the success of these mechanisms is dependent on the extent to which the mechanisms support the development of target fisher capabilities to comply with their sustainability requirements we conclude that the future success of these incentive mechanisms depends for a large part on stricter sustainability requirements but also on the capacity of the mechanisms to incentivize the inclusion of more developing country fishers these findings contribute to a wider understanding of how the capabilities of developing country producers are influenced by their relationship with chain and non chain actors and with the wide institutional arrangements that the producers operate in

the blue revolution in asia upgrading and governance in aquaculture value chains summary in this article we examine the upgrading trajectories of selected aquaculture value chains in four asian countries and the links between upgrading and three factors of value chain governance coordination mechanisms types of drivers and domestic regulation we find instances of improving products processes and value chain coordination while moving up the value chain is rare we also find that the type of value chain driver and the quality of the domestic regulatory framework are main facilitators of upgrading we conclude by highlighting lessons on the potential limits and risks of upgrading the blue revolution in asia

the nobel memorial prize for william d nordhaus william d nordhaus and paul m romer received the 2018 sveriges riksbank prize in economic sciences in memory of alfred nobel this paper surveys nordhaus contributions on integrating climate change into long run macroeconomic analysis for which he was recognized with this prize

spurred to upgrade a review of triggers and consequences of industrial upgrading in the global value chain literature summary the global value chains gvc literature intervenes in today s challenging development context by focusing on the means by which developing country industries can upgrade their market positions and outcomes for workers yet while this literature has produced hundreds of rich empirical case studies there has to date been no attempt to systematically analyze this case literature for lessons regarding the antecedents and consequences of the key outcome of upgrading this paper undertakes a systematic analysis of a representative sample of 45 case studies of primary product and light manufacturing industries in developing countries these studies were coded for factors involved in initiating and sustaining upgrading processes the results of upgrading and the role of local institutions in these processes we find that contrary to the major assumptions of the literature advanced country buyers are not the main force in the initiation of industrial upgrading rather in most cases developing country firms initiate upgrades when pushed by shocks of market vulnerability usually produced by state policies that force them to seek to change their status quo operations once initiated upgrading processes can produce a wide spectrum of results from little to no advancement in market position treadmilling to vaulting to the forefront of a global industry leaps forward on the basis of the sources of learning present in the local institutional environment such as state agencies and business associations we also identify conditions under which state participation in upgrading processes can lead to increased local institutional capacity together these findings suggest a framework for upgrading that we refer to as an induced search model this model has important implications for future research on the dynamics of industrial upgrading in developing countries techniques of state intervention and processes of mutually supportive learning between actors in the public and private sector

discounting climate and sustainability climate policy recommendations differ widely because of disagreements over what discount rates to use disagreement reduces the impact of economic models and signals a need for improved methodology the problem is related to the choice of intergenerational welfare functions a first questionnaire finds that the standard welfare function swf fails to capture people s dislike of overshooting and fluctuating consumption paths a second questionnaire reveals that when very long term sustainability of well being is threatened people s implicit discount rates resemble the low estimates used by the stern review an alternative welfare function awf reflecting consumption growth can potentially capture the preference structure revealed in both questionnaires this makes the awf an interesting candidate when searching for policies for sustainable development under uncertainty importantly the questionnaires demonstrate that people are able to choose among policies by inspecting time graphs of policy consequences thus it is possible to circumvent the complexities and disagreements introduced by welfare functions and discounting

the damage costs of climate change toward more comprehensive calculations it is argued that estimating the damage costs of a certain benchmark climate change is not sufficient what is needed are cost functions and confidence intervals although these are contained in the integrated models and their technical manuals this paper brings them into the open in order to stimulate discussion after briefly reviewing the benchmark climate change damage costs region specific cost functions are presented which distinguish tangible from intangible losses and the losses due to a changing climate from those due to a changed climate furthermore cost functions are assumed to be quadratic as an approximation of the unknown but presumably convex functions results from the damage module of the integrated climate economy model fund are presented next uncertainties are incorporated and expected damages are calculated it is shown that because of convex loss functions and right skewed uncertain ties the risk premium is substantial calling for more action than analysis based on best guess estimates the final section explores some needs for further scientific research

the damage costs of climate change towards a dynamic representation economic assessments of climate change impacts are commonly presented as the effect of a climate change associated with a doubling of the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide on the current economy this paper is an attempt to express impact as a function of both climate change and socio economic change with regard to climate change issues discussed are level versus rate of change speed of adaptation speed of restoration and value adjustment and symmetry with regard to socio economic change agriculture migration and the valuation of intangible losses are addressed uncertainty and higher order impacts are treated briefly it is qualitatively argued and quantitatively illustrated that these issues matter a great deal for the damage profile over the next century a damage model based on my best guesses is presented in the appendix

development of a fuzzy optimization model supporting global warming decision making an increasing number of models have been developed to support global warming response policies the model constructors are facing a lot of uncertainties which limit the evidence of these models the support of climate policy decision making is only possible in a semi quantitative way as presented by afuzzy model the model design is based on an optimization approach integrated in a bounded risk decision making framework given some regional emission related and impact related restrictions optimal emission paths can be calculated the focus is not only on carbon dioxide but on other greenhouse gases too in the paper the components of the model will be described cost coefficients emission boundaries and impact boundaries are represented asfuzzy parameters thefuzzy model will be transformed into a computational one by using an approach of rommelfanger in the second part some problems of applying the model to computations will be discussed this includes discussions on the data situation and the presentation as well as interpretation of results of sensitivity analyses the advantage of thefuzzy approach is that the requirements regarding data precision are not so strong hence the effort for data acquisition can be reduced and computations can be started earlier

learning from global buyers an increasing number of developing countries engage in contract manufacturing for a decreasing number of global buyers this constellation characterises many labour intensive export sectors the positioning of developing country enterprises in such buyer driven chains is central to research concerned with identifying the winners and losers from globalisation this study contributes to this debate by seeking answers to two questions first what can researchers learn from global buyers about the relative strengths and weaknesses of developing country producers second what can these producers learn from global buyers and what circumstances facilitate or constrain such learning