models of inflation expectations formation a comparison of household and economist forecasts the recent appreciation of the critical role played by expectations of inflation in the behavior of macromodels has stimulated empirical studies of the formation of expectations by different groups time series survey data on expectations of inflation exist now for economists households and businesses these data have been used as independent variables in explaining wage behavior gordon 16 turnovsky and wachter 34 and de menil and bhatta 5 prices turnovsky and wachter 34 and wachtel 36 interest rates gibson 14 hendershott and van horne 19 pearce 30 and mishkin 27 and consumption wachtel 36 generally with a significant improvement in explanatory power they have also been used as dependent variables in attempts to determine how expectations are formed by gordon 15 mullineaux 28 jacobs and jones 20 and figlewski and wachtel 9 for the economist survey van duyne 35 for the household survey and leonard 23 and de leeuw and mckelvey 4 for businesses given their different levels of knowlege of economics and perspectives one might expect that the models used by the different groups to forecast inflation would

does favorable tax treatment of housing reduce non housing investment abstract it is often argued that low tax rates on owner occupied housing divert investment from non housing capital like equipment and r d this paper demonstrates that if people are heterogeneous in their propensity to save and if there are constraints on borrowing favorable tax treatment of owner occupied housing up to a certain value can increase non housing investment this is because low housing taxes encourage renters to become owner occupiers leading existing owner occupiers to shift their portfolio of other assets from rental housing to non housing capital

on data a case study of the evolution of income inequality across time and across countries this paper takes income distribution as a case study of the role of data in economics after describing the transformation which has taken place with regard to the availability of data on income inequality it discusses how the comparability of these estimates is brought into question by differences in methodology that cannot be eliminated by simple adjustments recent analyses of the relationships between income inequality and growth or globalisation are shown to be based on time series plagued by discontinuities which can seriously affect regression results the paper concludes by calling for greater attention to data quality in applied economics

from theory to practice canadian economists contributions to public finance we survey canadian economists contributions to the field of public finance from the mid 1980s to 2016 we highlight the development and extension of the models and tools of public economics and the empirical studies that have deepened our understanding of the efficiency and distributional issues over a wide range of public finance issues we also highlight contributions to the development of policies through commissioned reports and the important role that canadian institutions the canadian tax foundation the think tanks and the federal and provincial departments of finance have played in shaping tax and fiscal policies de la theorie a la pratique contributions des economistes canadiens a la finance publique on examine les contributions des economistes canadiens au domaine de la finance publique du milieu des annees 1980 a 2016 on souligne le developpement et l extension des modeles et des outils d economie publique et les etudes empiriques qui ont aide a approfondir notre comprehension des enjeux d efficacite et de distribution dans un vaste eventail de questions de finance publique on souligne aussi les contributions des rapports commandites au developpement de politiques publiques ainsi que le role important d institutions canadiennes l association canadienne d etudes fiscales les groupes d experts ainsi que les ministeres des finances du gouvernement federal et des gouvernements provinciaux dans le design des politiques fiscales

the impact of microcredit on the poor in bangladesh revisiting the evidence abstractwe replicate and reanalyse the most influential study of microcredit impacts m m pitt s r khandker s the impact of group based credit on poor households in bangladesh does the gender of participants matter published in the journal of political economy 106 1998 that study was celebrated for showing that microcredit reduces poverty a much hoped for possibility though one not confirmed by recent randomised controlled trials we show that the original results on poverty reduction disappear after dropping outliers or when using a robust linear estimator using a new program for estimation of mixed process maximum likelihood models we show how assumptions critical for the original analysis such as error normality are contradicted by the data we conclude that questions about impact cannot be answered in these data

how retirement saving programs increase saving this paper summarizes the authors work on the effect of ira and 401 k contributions on net personal saving they consider many different nonparametric approaches to controlling for heterogeneity in individual saving behavior and conclude that the weight of the available evidence suggests that contributions to both iras and 401 k s largely represent new saving the authors devote particular attention to reconciling their results with the findings in other studies that reach different conclusions sometimes using the same databases that the authors analyze methodological limitations that undermine the reliability of results in other studies explain many of these disparities

using electoral cycles in police hiring to estimate the effect of police on crime comment previous empirical studies have uncovered little evidence that police reduce crime possibly due to simultaneity problems this paper uses the timing of mayoral and gubernatorial elections as an instrumental variable to identify a causal effect of police on crime increases in the size of police forces are shown to be disproportionately concentrated in mayoral and gubernatorial election years increases in police are shown to substantially reduce violent crime but have a smaller impact on property crime the null hypothesis that the marginal social benefit of reduced crime equals the costs of hiring additional police cannot be rejected

spatial structure of agricultural production in china the spatial structure of county level agricultural production in china in 1999 is analysed a convenient simple method that corrects for both spatial autocorrelation and spatial heterogeneity in the input output relationships using spatial lag models and an allowance for the response coefficients to vary across relatively homogeneous regions are described empirical results suggest an abundant labour supply and extensive use of agricultural machinery reflected in its declining price although mechanization is relatively new machines have replaced fertilizer in agricultural production in the north northeast northwest and east regions while irrigation and fertilizer are the significantly important inputs in the central and southwest regions

is a slowdown in agricultural productivity growth contributing to the rise in commodity prices a slowdown in the rate of agricultural productivity growth is thought by many observers to be contributing to the recent rise in agricultural prices in this article i decompose sources of output growth in global agriculture into aggregate input and total factor productivity tfp components and examine whether productivity growth slowed substantially in the years leading up to the recent rise in commodity prices contrary to widely held perceptions i find no evidence of a general slowdown in sector wide agricultural tfp at least through 2006 if anything the growth rate in agricultural tfp accelerated in recent decades however the results do show a slowdown in the growth of agricultural investment accelerating tfp growth largely offset decelerating input growth to keep the real output of global agriculture growing at about 2 per year since the 1960s regionally however agricultural productivity performance has been uneven these findings have important implications for the appropriate supply side policy response to the current agricultural price crisis

financial market efficiency the decomposition of anticipated versus unanticipated money growth and further tests of the relation between money and real output note probably the most controversial empirical findings in macroeconomics in the last decade stem from robert barro s investigations into the relative effects of unanticipated versus anticipated money growth on unemployment and real output these studies generally proceed by decomposing observed money growth into what is defined to be its anticipated and unanticipated components and then test the restriction that only the unanticipated money measure has important effects for unemployment and real output in black box reduced form real side equations that include determinants of the natural rates of unemployment and real output as additional explanatory variables l the results of these tests for the annual postwar u s data generally cannot reject the hypothesis that only unanticipated money growth is important for the determination of aggregate real activity 2 anticipated money growth is found to be neutral for unemployment and real output these results are important because they give empirical support to the assertion that the apparent nonneutrality of observed money growth does not provide any firm basis for the efficacy of a systematic countercyclical monetary policy it should be clear that a crucial problem in testing for the neutrality nonneutrality of anticipated unanticipated money growth lies in developing an appropriate decomposition of observed money growth into its anticipated and unanticipated parts small 13 mishkin 8 and weintraub 14 among others have

tax subsidies and household saving evidence from canada targeted tax based saving incentives can be a powerful tool for promoting household and national saving this study examines the effect of the cancellation of the registered home ownership savings plan rhosp a canadian tax subsidized saving program on household saving the cancellation provides exogenous variation in eligibility for the subsidy that is uncorrelated with householdspecific heterogeneity in saving behavior the empirical analysis suggests that the subsidy had a substantial impact on saving each dollar contributed to the program represented 56 93 and 20 57 cents of new household and national saving respectively

effects of individual development accounts on asset purchases and saving behavior evidence from a controlled experiment abstract we evaluate the first controlled field experiment on individual development accounts idas including their own contributions and matching funds treatment group members in the tulsa oklahoma program could accumulate 6750 for home purchase or 4500 for other qualified uses almost all treatment group members opened accounts but many withdrew all funds for unqualified purposes among renters at the beginning of the experiment the ida increased homeownership rates after 4 years by 7 11 percentage points and reduced non retirement financial assets by 700 1000 the ida had almost no other discernable effect on other subsidized assets overall wealth or poverty rates

tax deferred savings plans and interest deductibility programs that defer taxes on savings e g rrsps or 401 k s are supposed to move income tax systems closer to the more efficient consumption tax whether or not rrsps move income tax systems away from or closer to a consumption tax depends on whether or not interest on debts incurred to make rrsp contributions is deductible for income tax purposes if people optimize as assumed in simple life cycle models then it may be that governments can convert a non linear income tax system to a proportional consumption tax system i argue this is plausible for some canadian households jel classification h21 h24 plans d epargne pour differer les impots et deductibilite des charges d interet les gouvernements ont mis en place des regimes d impots sur le revenu des personnes mais la plupart des gouvernements prennent des mesures pour attenuer les distorsions causees par la composante taxe sur l interet dans l impot sur le revenu un antidote populaire est le plan d epargne pour differer les impots pedi e g les reers ou 401 k s on pense que en reportant les impots sur les epargnes et les revenus d interet sur les epargnes de tels plans vont deplacer le regime fiscal d impot sur le revenu vers un regime plus efficient d impot sur la consommation l auteur suggere que l impact des pedi sur ce deplacement depend de la deductibilite de l interet sur la dette encourue pour faire les contributions aux fins de l impot sur le revenu si les gens optimisent comme on le pretend dans les modeles simples de cycles de vie alors il se peut que les gouvernements puissent convertir un systeme non lineaire d impot sur le revenu en un regime d impot proportionnel sur la consommation en permettant des pedi illimites et en prohibant la deductibilite des charges d interet

verifying the solution from a nonlinear solver a case study we are pleased to confirm that any doubt our article mccullough and vinod 2003 hereafter mv03 may have cast on ron shachar and barry nalebuff 1999 hereafter sn99 must be removed we are especially pleased because we thought it quite unfair that other researchers were able to exempt themselves from such detailed scrutiny it appears that such researchers no longer will have the luxury of reneging on their agreement to honor the replication policy as this journal now requires authors of accepted empirical papers to provide all programs and data files for posting on the aer web site as a precondition of publication the primary aim of our article mv03 was to provide a four part methodology for verifying the solution from a nonlinear solver check the gradient examine the trace analyze the hessian and profile the likelihood we adduced copious evidence mv03 p 873 that solvers used by economists can produce inaccurate answers gave examples of different packages giving different answers to the same nonlinear problems mv03 p 874 and showed mv03 pp 873 74 at least in this journal that researchers make no effort to verify the solutions from the solvers that they use we believe this uncritical acceptance of solutions from nonlinear solvers to be a systemic problem in economic research that is why we wrote the article certainly econometrics texts do not show how to verify the solution from a nonlinear solver in passing we also showed how a problem can be too large for conventional pc methods and indicated the failure of replication policies in this journal and other journals we used the data and likelihood function from sn99 to illustrate the methodology in the course of this illustration we noted that the hessian was ill conditioned suggested that there might exist multiple optima and that inference based on the wald statistic was not appropriate we concluded that the solution we found was at best a tentative solution however as shown in shachar and nalebuff 2004 hereafter sn04 when the problem is rescaled the hessian is not ill conditioned they have correctly identified the difference between the condition number of the badly scaled version of the problem that we analyzed in mv03 and the well scaled problem that they have analyzed when the problem is correctly scaled the hessian is well conditioned the model is locally identifiable the problem can be solved on a pc a solution to the problem exists and sn present it in their table 1 though we were aware that rescaling could ameliorate ill conditioning mv03 p 882 we were unaware of the distinction between artificial ill conditioning and inherent ill conditioning so the method we suggested for analyzing the hessian contained an error of omission this error caused us to reach an incorrect conclusion concerning the existence of a solution to the problem we apologize to professors shachar and nalebuff and we thank them for their gracious understanding in this regard accordingly we have amended our prescription for analyzing the hessian see our nearby exchange with david m drukker and vince wiggins 2004 hereafter dw for complete details our

are there cultural effects on saving some cross sectional evidence why are there such large differences in saving rates across countries conventional economic analyses have not been successful in explaining international saving differences so economists have sometimes suggested that national saving differences may be explained by cultural differences this paper tests the hypothesis that cultural factors influence saving by comparing saving patterns of immigrants to canada from different cultures using data from the canadian survey of family expenditures we find no evidence of cultural effects on saving

tax preferred savings accounts and marginal tax rates evidence on rrsp participation the effect of taxes on participation in registered retirement savings plans between 1982 and 1996 is studied interprovincial changes in the tax structure over this period provide identifying variation using this variation i find that taxes influence households participation decisions but more weakly than previously estimated a 10 percentage point increase in the marginal tax rate is estimated to increase the probability of participation by 8 per cent this explains only 5 1 per cent of the trend in participation i also find suggestive evidence that the carryforward mechanism may be used as an instrument for tax base smoothing jel classification h24 comptes d epargne fiscalement privilegies et taux marginaux d imposition resultats sur la participation aux regimes enregistres d epargne retraite reer ce memoire etudie les effets du regime d imposition sur la participation aux regimes enregistres d epargne retraite reer entre 1982 et 1996 les changements dans la structure d imposition d une province a l autre au cours de la periode fournissent un eventail de possibilites utilisant cet eventail l auteur decouvre que le regime fiscal influence les decisions de participer des menages mais plus faiblement qu on l avait estime precedemment un accroissement de 10 pour cent dans le taux marginal d imposition accroit la probabilite de participation de 8 pour cent voila qui explique seulement 5 1 pour cent de la tendance dans la participation l auteur decouvre aussi que le mecanisme de report dans le temps de la portion inutilisee de la contribution aux reer peut etre utilise comme instrument de lissage de la base de revenus imposables

divestiture requirements as a tool for competition policy a case from the swedish beer market we investigate the effect of divestitures on prices and welfare following the carlsberg pripps merger in the swedish beer market both difference in difference estimation and simulations using a random coefficients logit model suggest that divestitures are important for dampening price increases prices of divested brands fall by around 3 and the predicted price increase for carlsberg falls from 3 to 1 6 as a result of the divestitures to guide practice on divestitures we investigate the role of the recipient and the number and characteristics of the divested products by simulating post merger outcomes for all relevant cases we find that in this setting with large multiproduct firms the competition authority s most effective means to dampen adverse post merger outcomes are to aim for a small recipient firm and attain a large number of divested products enforcing larger divestitures in terms of market share and raising the average cross price elasticity between the merging parties divested and retained products strengthen the dampening effect further

social security and private saving new time series evidence in an important article in the journal of political economy martin feldstein 1974 estimated that the introduction of the social security system had reduced personal saving by 50 percent with serious consequences for capital formation and output his conclusion was based on a consumer expenditure function estimated with u s time series data and incorporating a social security wealth variable of his construction this paper presents new evidence that casts considerable doubt on feldstein s conclusion first the social security wealth variable used by feldstein was seriously flawed as a result of a computer programming error simply correcting this error substantially changes the estimated effect of social security on saving second the statistical evidence depends upon assumptions which are embedded in the construction of the social security wealth variable assumptions that are not demonstrably preferable and are in some cases inferior to alternative assumptions these assumptions relate first to how individuals form their expectations about the social security benefits they expect to receive and the social security taxes they expect to pay and second to estimates of the number of workers dependent wives and surviving

verifying the solution from a nonlinear solver a case study comment this paper presents the tale of a replication experiment the main characters are operating systems hessians scaling double peaked likelihoods and the limits of pc computing some of these characters especially the hessians looked scary at first but turned out to be sheep in wolves clothing in other words the story has a happy ending to appreciate the twists and turns we go back and start at the beginning once upon a time indeed in the june 2003 issue of the aer b d mccullough and h d vinod 2003 mv hereafter set out to test the aer replication policy while many aer authors were invited to participate in this replication event few answered the call we did mv singled out our cooperation and honoring of the aer replication policy mv replicated the results in our 1999 aer paper shachar and nalebuff 1999 you might have expected that we would be happy but we were not mv were concerned not only with replication but also with reliability of nonlinear estimation procedures specifically they were concerned that nonlinear solvers can produce inaccurate answers they believe that this is a systemic problem with empirical research in economics thus they proposed a four step method to verify the solution from a nonlinear solver using data from our paper to illustrate their point they conclude referring to our 1999 article as sn

viewpoint replication in economics this examination of the role and potential for replication in economics points out the paucity of both pure replication checking on others published papers using their data and scientific replication using data representing different populations in one s own work or in a comment several controversies in empirical economics are used to illustrate how and how not to behave when replicating others work the incentives for replication are examined and proposals aimed at journal editors and authors are advanced that might stimulate an activity that most economists applaud but few perform

decollectivization collective legacy and uneven agricultural development in china summary china has seen persistent regional inequality in agricultural productivity since it dismantled its rural collectives in the early 1980s this paper evaluates the effects of collective legacies on the agricultural performance after decollectivization we construct a collective legacy index cli based on the achievements in the areas of rural infrastructure education and health under collectives using a district level panel dataset we find that the cli has long term positive effects on agricultural development after decollectivization that is districts that already performed well under socialism could still succeed under a different institution because they had superior infrastructure and human capital at the same time districts with less successful experience under socialism are less likely to catch up even after dismantling the collective institutions the results with an instrumental variable the pace of decollectivization further reinforce this conclusion we therefore argue that different collective legacies contribute to the uneven development in rural china to tackle its problems of regional inequality china needs to appreciate the role of its collective legacies in development

can the reserves approach to monetary control really work on october 6 1979 the board of governors bog of the federal reserve system announced that the federal open market committee fomc was abandoning its historical preoccupation with an interest rate approach to monetary control in favor of a reserve aggregate approach 1 underlying this new approach is the fact that at time t any money stock concept m is the product of a money multiplier m and a reserve aggregate r that is

estimation of random coefficient demand models two empiricists perspective we document the numerical challenges we experienced estimating random coefficient demand models as in berry levinsohn and pakes 1995 using two well known data sets and a thorough optimization design the optimization algorithms often converge at points where the first and second order optimality conditions fail there are also cases of convergence at local optima on convergence the variation in the values of the parameter estimates translates into variation in the models economic predictions price elasticities and changes in consumer and producer welfare following hypothetical merger exercises vary at least by a factor of 2 and up to a factor of 5

agricultural policy and productivity evidence from brazilian censuses brazil s economic strategy has shifted hesitatingly during the last several decades from one of producer protection to trade competitiveness exploiting the variations these shifts have afforded we use a sequence of decennial agricultural censuses to examine brazilian policy implications for agricultural competitiveness and efficiency total factor productivity is decomposed into best technology and efficiency elements each subject to policy influence we find technology growth at 4 5 per annum to have been extraordinarily high particularly in the south but because productivity among average producers has fallen rapidly behind that on the technical frontier total productivity growth has been a much more modest 2 6 per year public agricultural research programs most benefit the country s technological leaders widening the gap between frontier and average producer credit education and road construction policies instead narrow that gap credit and road programs especially enhance efficiency in the south where efficiency losses have been greatest jel classification o2 o3

a quantitative analysis of china s structural transformation abstract the structural transformation of china or the reallocation of resources from the agricultural sector to the nonagricultural sector between 1978 and 2003 was truly remarkable we develop a two sector neoclassical growth model to quantitatively assess the driving forces of china s recent structural transformation in addition to the forces currently emphasized in the literature sectoral productivity growth we show that china s transformation was accelerated significantly by the gradual reduction in the relative size of the chinese government we find that the reduction in the size of the chinese government accounted by itself for 15 of the reduction in the agricultural share of employment two mechanisms explain this i in our model the lower tax rate associated with reduced intervention encouraged the accumulation of physical capital which is produced in the nonagricultural sector ii lower inefficiencies induced incomes to rise and given our preferences resulted in a disproportionate increase in the demand for the nonagricultural good

what are the social benefits of homeownership experimental evidence for low income households abstract we estimate the social benefits of homeownership using an exogenous instrument based on randomly assigned treatment status from a field experiment that subsidized saving for home purchase for low income renters through individual development accounts idas this approach attempts to eliminate the potential correlation present in previous analyses between unobserved individual characteristics leading to homeownership and traits leading to provision of social capital or local amenities consistent with previous work we show that homeownership positively affects political engagement in simple probits instrumental variable probits however show no impact of homeownership on political involvement iv results for other social outcomes are less conclusive the analysis suggests that with the use of an exogenous instrument it is possible to generate results that are different from the previous literature our results also suggest that being eligible to open an ida did not spur households to provide more social capital or local amenities

the social and private micro level consequences of homeownership abstract this paper reviews the literature that describes the micro level economic and social consequences of homeownership we adopt an interdisciplinary approach and include studies from economics sociology geography political science psychology and other disciplines our focus is on the set of consequences of homeownership in developed countries our list of potential outcomes of homeownership includes the impact on household wealth and portfolio choice mobility labor force participation urban structure and segregation home maintenance political and social activities health demographics self esteem and child outcomes there is substantial evidence that homeownership has important effects on some household behaviors and outcomes however we find that much of the past 30 year s literature on consequences of homeowning is deficient from a theoretical or econometric perspective we suggest solutions and identify research gaps present in the literature

energy and economic growth in the usa two decades later replication and reanalysis abstract over two decades ago stern 1993 published evidence in this journal of unidirectional granger causality running from gdp to a raw measure of energy use from a weighted measure of energy use to gdp and of other relations pertaining to labor and capital in this paper we verify the original results and conduct a two fold reanalysis on one hand we revisit granger causality using the toda and yamamoto ty procedure to account for integrated series and on the other we study super exogeneity to establish causal relations between the series our verification exercise confirms the original results and with the ty procedure we achieve a positive reanalysis of the granger causality relations between gdp and energy super exogeneity shows that labor and capital cause gdp and energy use and thus highlight the importance of correctly interpreting econometric procedures these results enhance the reliability of the energy gdp nexus literature

china s regional agricultural productivity growth in 1985 2007 a multilateral comparison1 in this study we estimate total factor productivity tfp growth as well as multilateral tfp index for 25 contiguous china provinces over the 1985 2007 period agricultural output growth for each province was decomposed into tfp growth and input growth where input growth was further disaggregated into contributions from growth of labor capital land and intermediate goods over the study period tfp growth contributed 2 7 percentage points to output growth annually which was slightly higher than the input growth contribution of 2 4 percentage points per annum on average the annual rate of productivity growth peaked during 1996 2000 at 5 1 it slowed in 2000 2005 to a rate of 3 2 per annum and declined in the most recent years 2005 2007 to 3 7 differences in productivity among regions persisted over the entire period the tendency toward faster tfp growth in relatively well off coastal regions may imply a widening of regional inequality

reforms investment and poverty in rural china shenggen faninternational food policy research institute and institute of agriculturaleconomics of the chinese academy of agricultural scienceslinxiu zhangcenter for chinese agricultural policy of the chinese academy of sciencesxiaobo zhanginternational food policy research institutei introductionchina is one of the few countries in the developing world that has madeprogress in reducing its total number of poor over the past 25 years

monetary and public debt shocks tests and efficient estimates in an article in the jmcb barro 1 defined a form of intertemporal efficiency for the behavior of marginal tax rates and expected tax rates given certain additional conditions on government expenditures barro s definition of efficiency implied that particular relationships and time paths would characterize federal deficits in that paper two of the seven predicted relationships were tested 1 the sign of the relationship between the deficit and the ratio of output to its trend value and 2 the effect of anticipated inflation on the deficit those tests were performed under the joint assumptions of the rational expectations hypothesis reh and predictable policy irrelevance or structural neutrality sn with regard to both monetary and debt policies in this paper barro s tests of the efficiency hypothesis are reexamined within a wider context by means of the statistically efficient full information maximum likelihood fiml method 4 6 1 specifically by allowing the imposition of cross equation and within equation parameter constraints the fiml method makes it possible to a directly test the reh and sn propositions jointly and separately

follow the leader theory and evidence on political participation using state by state voting data for u s presidential elections the authors observe that voter turnout is a positive function of predicted closeness to explain the strategic component of political participation they develop a follow the leader model political leaders expend effort according to their chance of being pivotal which depends on the expected closeness of the race at both state and national levels and how voters respond to their effort structural estimation supports this model for example a 1 percent increase in the predicted closeness at the state level stimulates leaders efforts which increases turnout by 0 34 percent

estimates of the variance of u s inflation based upon the arch model it is generally agreed that the unpredictability of future inflation is a major component of the welfare loss associated with inflation perfectly predicted inflation might induce some costs through institutional rigidities governmental interference and transaction costs but in the long run these should be rather minimal as these institutions adopt various forms of indexing when inflation is unpredictable risk averse economic agents will incur a loss even if prices and quantities are perfectly flexible in all markets inflation is a measure of the relative price of goods today and goods tomorrow thus uncertainty in tomorrow s price impairs the efficiency of today s allocation decisions friedman in his nobel lecture 8 argues convincingly that higher variability of inflation would lead to decreased output ceteris paribus he then conjectures that higher rates of inflation are generally associated with higher variability of inflation and presumably greater uncertainty about future rates if this is true then higher rates of inflation would also be associated with low levels of output which implies a positively sloped phillips curve this paper uses a new statistical technique arch to estimate the conditional mean and variance of inflation from u s time series data the main finding is that the variance of inflation in the seventies was only slightly greater than in the sixties

viewpoint measuring the well being of the poor with income or consumption a canadian perspective there is a long tradition of using consumption measures derived from statistics canada s household expenditures surveys to study material well being inequality and poverty we offer an introduction to this research income and consumption measures give different pictures of the patterns of material well being in canada but the differences are not as large as in the us we also provide a comparison to meyer and sullivan s results on data quality canadian expenditure surveys are of high quality unique aspects of these surveys variation in quality control measures over time and the possibility of comparing to income tax data provide important insights into the quality of survey data on income and consumption il existe une longue tradition d utilisation de mesures de consommation derivees de l enquete des depenses des menages de statistiques canada pour mesurer le bien etre materiel l inegalite et la pauvrete les auteurs presentent ces recherches les mesures de revenus et de consommation donnent des portraits differents des patterns de bien etre materiel au canada mais les differences ne sont pas aussi importantes qu aux etats unis on presente une comparaison avec les resultats de meyer et sullivan sur la qualite des donnees les enquetes sur les depenses sont de haute qualite au canada certains aspects uniques de ces enquetes variation dans les mesures de controle de qualite dans le temps et possibilite de comparer les donnees derivees des rapports d impot sur le revenu fournissent des apercus importants sur la qualite des donnees d enquetes sur le revenu et la consommation canadian economics association

replication in empirical economics the journal of money credit and banking project this paper examines the role of replication in empirical economic research it presents the findings of a two year study that collected programs and data from authors and attempted to replicate their published results the research provides new and important information about the extent and causes of failures to replicate published results in economics the findings suggest that inadvertent errors in published empirical articles are a commonplace rather than a rare occurence copyright 1986 by american economic association

did tax flattening affect rrsp contributions in 1988 marginal personal income tax rates changed in canada for some individuals by reasonably substantial amounts in this note a large sample of tax filer data is examined and the conclusion is drawn that when attention is paid to the possible confounding of marginal tax rate and non linear income effects there is no convincing evidence that the tax rate changes affected contributions to registered retirement saving plans rrsps est ce que l aplatissement des taux d imposition influence les contributions au reer en 1988 les taux marginaux d imposition du revenu personnel ont change au canada et pour certaines personnes ces changements ont ete substantiels cette note examine un grand echantillon de rapports d impots et en arrive a la conclusion que quand on prend en compte le melange possible des effets du taux marginal d imposition et des effets de revenu non lineaires il n y a pas de resultats qui montrent de facon probante que les changements dans les taux d imposition ont influence les contributions au reer

is small beautiful farm size productivity and poverty in asian agriculture the debate on the relationship between farm size and productivity has gone through a complete circle in the 1960s it was perceived that small farms were efficient because they can fully use their resources particularly family labor and they can monitor their production activities closely but in the 1970s and 1980s as many asian countries rapidly moved towards industrialization and urbanization small farms were considered a major obstacle in this process