outcome based accountability theory and evidence abstract a firm s payoffs can often depend on whether it exceeds a threshold of performance in a principal agent setting we demonstrate that the optimal contract induces efficient effort by basing firing decisions solely on whether the agent was successful even though the absolute level of performance is more informative we test the predictions of our model using thirty seasons of nfl data we find that a coach is 6 percentage points more likely to be fired after a close loss beyond this the margin of victory has no significant impact on firing probabilities despite being more informative about future success also consistent with the predictions of our model coaches maximize team effort by playing their best players when doing so has the largest impact on the probability of winning

occupational choice and the process of development this paper models economic development as a process of institutional transformation by focusing on the interplay between agents occupational decisions and the distribution of wealth because of capital market imperfections poor agents choose working for a wage over self employment and wealthy agents become entrepreneurs who monitor workers only with sufficient inequality however will there be employment contracts otherwise there is either subsistence or self employment thus in static equilibrium the occupational structure depends on distribution since the latter is itself endogenous we demonstrate the robustness of this result by extending the model dynamically and studying examples in which initial wealth distributions have long run effects in one case the economy develops either widespread cottage industry self employment or factory production employment contracts depending on the initial distribution in the other example it develops into prosperity or stagnation

migrants in a guest worker system a utility maximizing approach this paper examines the behavior of utility maximizing migrants in a system of guest worker migration their pattern of leisure and commodity consumption at home and abroad is analysed and related

emigration to south africa s mines this paper presents a simultaneous econometric model of both the determinants of international migration to the south african mines and of some of the economic consequences for each of the labor supplying countries not only are the short run effects of labor withdrawal on traditional crop cultivation and the domestic wage labor markets considered but also the long term effects of savings from mine earnings invested in crops and cattle in the home countries the experiences of botswana lesotho malawi mozambique and the south african homelands are compared it is shown that emigration to the south african mines has reduced crop production in the subsistence sectors of botswana lesotho malawi and the south african homelands in the short run but the results also suggest that earnings of migrants have enhanced both crop productivity and cattle accumulation in the longer run except in lesotho excerpt

immigrant decisions concerning duration of stay and migratory frequency abstract the temporary and repetitive character of contemporary labor migration is explained by assuming that immigrants have a preference for location a life cycle model of immigrant behavior is developed to determine net lifetime income total time allocated to home country and foreign country residence and the number of migratory trips because of income effects home wages and foreign wages are not symmetric in their effect on the location of work effort it is also shown that changes in travelling costs have predictable consequences for the number of border crossings but not for the total time spent in the foreign labor market

an analysis of the use of accounting and market measures of performance in executive compensation contracts prior research has provided useful insights into the structure of compensation plans and their incentive effects however one important limitation of these studies is the virtual absence of any cross sectional analyses of the attributes of compensation contracts 2 this absence is related in part to the problems associated with controlling for other factors that affect compensation that is compensation contracts are

empirical research on ceo turnover and firm performance a discussion abstract engel hayes wang and farrell whidbee provide new evidence on how firms weight alternative performance measures in making ceo retention and replacement decisions while their results are statistically significant firm performance continues to explain very little of the variation in ceo turnover i argue we have probably reached a point of diminishing returns in estimating logit models that focus on the relation between ceo turnover and firm performance measures we will have to consider other less explored issues to increase our understanding of ceo turnovers and replacements analyzing age related issues is one example

migrants savings the probability of return migration and migrants performance this paper highlights a difference between migrants and the native born namely a positive probability of return migration the analysis demonstrates that this probability results in migrants saving more than comparable native born this differential may explain why even if all workers are perfectly homogeneous in skills migrants often outperform the native born in the receiving economy excerpt

on the optimal design of lotteries is globally concave since thearguments against the plausibility of a convex utility function advanced in the previous sectionin relation to eu theory apply with equal force to the rdeu model by contrast as is shownbelow these arguments do not apply to risk seeking behavior associated with the possibility that

impact of firm performance expectations on ceo turnover and replacement decisions abstract our analysis suggests that boards focus on deviation from expected performance rather than performance alone in making the ceo turnover decision especially when there is agreement less dispersion among analysts about the firm s earnings forecast or there are a large number of analysts following the firm in addition our results suggest that boards are more likely to appoint a ceo that will change firm policies and strategies i e an outsider when forecasted 5 year eps growth is low and there is greater uncertainty more dispersion among analysts about the firm s long term forecasts

the information content of losses abstract this study hypothesizes that because shareholders have a liquidation option losses are not expected to perpetuate they are thus less informative than profits about the firm s future prospects the results are consistent with the hypothesis they also show that the documented increase in the earnings response coefficent as the cumulation period increases appears to be due exclusively to the effect of losses the liquidation option effect extends to profitable cases where earnings are low enough to make the option attractive alternating explanations for the low informativeness of losses such as mean reversal of earnings are not supported by the tests

an economist s guide to lottery design this paper outlines the issues relevant to the design of pari mutuel lottery games and makes inferences about game design effects from estimates of how rollovers affect sales lottery tickets sales depend positively on the proportion of revenue returned as prizes positively on the skewness of the prize distribution which depends largely on how much of the prize money goes to the jackpot and negatively on the variance in the prize distribution which depends largely on how much goes on smaller prizes we simulate the effects of envisaged game design changes on sales revenue and find potentially large effects

a general equilibrium model of guest worker migration the source country perspective abstract this paper examines the problem of guest worker migration from an economy populated by identical utility maximizing individuals with finite working lives the decision to migrate the rate of saving while abroad as well as the length of a migrant s stay in the foreign country are all viewed as part of a solution to an intertemporal optimization problem in addition to studying the microeconomic aspects of temporary migration the paper analyses the determinants of the equilibrium flow of migrants the corresponding domestic wage and the level of welfare enjoyed by a typical worker effects of an emigration tax are also investigated

migration networks and microenterprises in mexico are migration networks associated with lower capital costs or the alleviation of capital constraints we examine these questions with data measuring access to remittance flows among small scale entrepreneurs in mexico using a survey of more than 6000 self employed workers and small firm owners located in 44 urban areas of mexico we estimate the impact of attachment to migration networks on the level of capital investment the capital output ratio sales and profits of microenterprises the impact is identified from the geographic pattern of migration from mexico driven by the completion of rail lines in the early 1900s for the full sample of firms we find that migration is associated with higher investment levels and higher profits but not higher sales the strongest effects on investment are in the categories of automobiles tools and inventories when the sample is limited to firms in high capital sectors investment sales and profits all increase with attachment to the migration networks suggesting that attachment to the migration network alleviates capital constraints in those sectors

ceo optimism and forced turnover abstract we show theoretically that optimism can lead a risk averse chief executive officer ceo to choose the first best investment level that maximizes shareholder value optimism below above the interior optimum leads the ceo to underinvest overinvest hence if boards of directors act in the interests of shareholders ceos with relatively low or high optimism face a higher probability of forced turnover than moderately optimistic ceos face using a large sample of turnovers we find strong empirical support for this prediction the results are consistent with the view that there is an interior optimum level of managerial optimism that maximizes firm value

the rewards to meeting or beating earnings expectations abstract this paper finds that firms that meet or beat current analysts earnings expectations mbe enjoy a higher return over the quarter than firms with similar quarterly earnings forecast errors that fail to meet these expectations further such a premium to mbe although somewhat smaller exists in the cases where mbe is likely to have been achieved through earnings or expectations management the findings also indicate that the premium to mbe is a leading indicator of future performance this premium and its predictive ability are only marginally affected by whether the mbe is genuine or the result of earnings or expectations management

the optimal allocation of prizes in contests we study a contest with multiple not necessarily equal prizes contestants have private information about an ability parameter that affects their costs of bidding the contestant with the highest bid wins the first prize the contestant with the second highest bid wins the second prize and so on until all the prizes are allocated all contestants incur their respective costs of bidding the contest s designer maximizes the expected sum of bids our main results are 1 we display bidding equlibria for any number of contestants having linear convex or concave cost functions and for any distribution of abilities 2 if the cost functions are linear or concave then no matter what the distribution of abilities is it is optimal for the designer to allocate the entire prize sum to a single first prize 3 we give a necessary and sufficient conditions ensuring that several prizes are optimal if contestants have a convex cost function

lotto fever do lottery players act rationally around large jackpots abstract lotto fever occurs when an increase in ticket sales reduces the expected value of a lottery ticket despite a higher jackpot an examination of 17 538 lotto drawings in the united states finds that examples of lotto fever are exceedingly rare

trading volume reactions to annual accounting earnings announcements the incremental role of predisclosure information asymmetry abstract this study provides empirical evidence regarding the effect of annual accounting earnings announcements on investors trading behavior we find that the magnitude of trading volume reaction is an increasing function of both the magnitude of the associated price reaction and the level of predisclosure information asymmetry these results are consistent with kim and verrecchia s 1991a theoretical trading volume proposition

the match between ceo and firm we investigate the role of job match heterogeneity in the ceo labor market we document a high percentage of ceo turnovers in the early years of tenure as illustrated by the hazard that increases until the fifth year of ceo tenure and then decreases evidence suggests that a good match is more likely if the new ceo performs better than the previous ceo the best matches tend to occur when inside outside ceos follow previous ceos who quit are dismissed evidence consistent with match theory in the ceo labor market suggests factors that influence the likelihood of observing a good match

optimal lottery design for public financing this article develops a model of optimal lottery design for public financing on the assumption that economic agents view buying lottery tickets as a form of entertainment given that lotteries are optimally designed it offers two findings 1 the fundraising potential of a lottery is independent of its type specifically of whether it is a fixed prize type or a pari mutuel and 2 the ratio of the optimal winning prize amount in each prize class to total lottery sales is equalised to the elasticity of demand for lottery ticket purchases with respect to the winning prize in each prize class

ceo stock option awards and the timing of corporate voluntary disclosures abstract we investigate whether ceos manage the timing of their voluntary disclosures around stock option awards we conjecture that ceos manage investors expectations around award dates by delaying good news and rushing forward bad news for a sample of 2 039 ceo option awards by 572 firms with fixed award schedules we document changes in share prices and analyst earnings forecasts around option awards that are consistent with our conjecture we also provide more direct evidence based on management earnings forecasts issued prior to award dates our findings suggest that ceos make opportunistic voluntary disclosure decisions that maximize their stock option compensation

endogenously chosen boards of directors and their monitoring of the ceo author s hermalin benjamin e abstract this paper develops a model in which the effectiveness of a board s monitoring of the ceo depends on the board s independence the independence of new directors is determined through negotiations implicit or explicit between the existing directors and the ceo the ceo s bargaining position and thus influence over the board selection process depends on an updated estimate of the ceo s ability based on prior performance many empirical findings about board structure and performance arise as equilibrium phenomena in this model we also explore the implications of this model for proposed regulations of corporate governance structures please contact the program in law and economics at boalt hall school of law uc berkeley berkeley ca 94720 for a copy of this paper

orchestrating rent seeking contests contests have different sometimes quite complex organisational structures in particular while most of the existing literature focusses on simultaneous contests multistage contests are also quite frequently encountered this paper seeks to provide a rationale for the latter by endogenising the choice of a contest structure which is made by an organiser of a contest interested in maximising the efforts expended by the contenders

accounting earnings and top executive compensation abstract this paper investigates the role of accounting earnings in top executive compensation contracts it provides evidence in support of the hypothesis that earnings based incentives help shield executives from market wide factors in stock prices the paper demonstrates that earnings reflect firm specific changes in value but are less sensitive to market wide movements in equity values as a result the inclusion of earnings based performance measures in executive compensation contracts helps shield executives from fluctuations in firm value that are beyond their control the hypothesis is shown to explain cross sectional variation in the use of earnings based incentives

investment opportunities in the source country and temporary migration this paper examines how attractive investment opportunities available to temporary migrants in their country of origin aect their saving behavior and the optimal duration of stay abroad the model predicts an inverse u shaped relationship between migration duration and the expected rate of return on repatriated savings a higher rate provides an incentive to go back earlier and consume less abroad while it can also trigger emigration aimed at generating the savings required for investment after return at a more general level the paper illustrates how the behavior of temporary migrants re ects the interaction between their preferences and the opportunities available in the labor and capital markets of both countries

testing for rational expectations in the uk national lottery the concept of rational expectations has typically been assumed without testing in the analysis of consumer demand and market efficiency in betting markets including betting on lottery games lottery games offer an excellent opportunity to test how participants process the information that is available to them using the uk national lottery as our particular case we find that participants in general efficiently process available information specifically they act as if they can on average forecast the level of sales for a given drawing

entrenchment governance and the stock price reaction to sudden executive deaths abstract to study managerial entrenchment i use the stock price reaction to unexpected senior executive deaths if a highly effective manager dies unexpectedly the stock price reaction should be negative if however death removes an entrenched manager when the board would or could not the stock price reaction should be positive while individually age and tenure only weakly correlate with the stock price reaction to a sudden death the reaction is strongly positive 6 8 if 1 the executive s tenure exceeds 10 years and 2 abnormal stock returns over the last three years are negative

the incidence of overdissipation in rent seeking contests tullock s analysis of rent seeking and overdissipation is reconsidered we show that while equilibrium strategies do not permit overdissipation in expectation for particular realizations of players mixed strategies the total amount spent competing for rents can exceed the value of the prize we also show that the cross sectional incidence of overdissipation in the perfectly discriminating contest ranges from 0 50 to 0 44 as the number of players increases from two to infinity thus even though the original analysis of overdissipation is flawed there are instances in which rent seekers spend more than the prize is worth

industry competition earnings management and leader follower effects this article examines the impacts of industry competition on the leader follower effects in different earnings management activities the empirical results show that there are the leader follower e

undocumented mexico u s migration and the returns to households in rural mexico this paper presents estimates of net income gains to a sample of households in rural mexico from sending migrants illegally to the united states correcting for sample selectivity bias and it examines the role of expected income gains in driving illegal mexico u s migration there is no evidence that people who migrate illegally to the united states are above average contributors to household income either as workers in mexico or as mexico u s migrants however other things being equal villagers who are in the best position to contribute to household income as workers in mexico are positively selected not to migrate to the united states