consumption and debt response to unanticipated income shocks evidence from a natural experiment in singapore abstract this paper uses a unique panel dataset of consumer financial transactions to study how consumers respond to an exogenous unanticipated income shock consumption rose significantly after th

procrastination at the patent office abstract pointing to a limited set of statistics suggesting that examiners turn in much of their work product at the end of quota periods the commerce department has recently raised concerns over examiner procrastination and its consequences for examination quality end loading of review completions alone however is not dispositive evidence of procrastination in this paper we confirm that examiners complete a substantial percentage of reviews at the end of both bi weekly and quarterly quotas and then proceed to test for additional markers that may separate a procrastination explanation for these findings from a range of alternative theories among other tests explored in this regard we predict and find evidence of an immediate spike in end loading upon the onset of examiner telecommuting a change in work environments that likely exacerbates self control problems our findings support a procrastination interpretation for at least some portion of the observed end loading of reviews with our outcomes analysis suggesting that the predominant consequence of this behavior for examination quality is an increase in examination durations

can self control explain avoiding free money evidence from interest free student loans abstract this paper uses insights from behavioral economics to explain a particularly surprising borrowing phenomenon one in six undergraduate students offered interest free loans turns them down models of impulse control predict that students may optimally reject subsidized loans to avoid excessive consumption during school using the national postsecondary student aid study we investigate students take up decisions and identify a group of students for whom the loans create an especially tempting liquidity increase students who would receive the loan in cash are significantly more likely to turn it down suggesting that consumers choose to limit their liquidity in economically meaningful situations

a parametrization of the auction design space abstract we present an extensive breakdown of the auction design space that captures the essential similarities and differences of many auction mechanisms in a format more descriptive and useful than simple taxonomies this parametrization serves as an organizational framework in which to classify work within the field and uncovers parameter combinations corresponding to novel mechanisms the structured characterization of auction rules can be exploited for the modular design of configurable auction servers it also facilitates the communication of auction rules to software agents enabling the automation of flexible market based negotiation journal of economic literature classification numbers c70 d44

the effect of food stamps on labor supply a bivariate selection model abstract although there is a large literature on the effects of u s transfer programs on labor supply this is the first such study of the food stamp program we model the nonlinearity and nonconvexity of the budget constraint and use maximum likelihood methods to estimate hours of work functions for female heads of household the largest recipient group in the program we also model the joint response to afdc and food stamps and we account for the existence of a significant number of eligible households who do not participate in the programs a three equation bivariate selection model is estimated on a sample of eligible households with maximum likelihood

an experiment on time preference and misprediction in unpleasant tasks we experimentally investigate the time inconsistent taste for immediate gratification and future preference misprediction across 7 weeks 100 participants choose the number of unpleasant transcription tasks given various wages to complete immediately and at different future dates participants preferred 10 12 fewer tasks in the present compared to any future date leading to an estimated of 0 83 comparing predictions with actual immediate work choices provides evidence against substantial sophistication with estimates implying that participants understand no more than 24 of their present bias finally we find evidence of projection bias participants wished to complete 4 12 fewer tasks when decisions were elicited right after completing tasks rather than before

the hyperbolic consumption model calibration simulation and empirical evaluation ur preferences for the long run tend to conflict with our short run behavior when planning for the long run we intend to meet our deadlines exercise regularly and eat healthfully but in the short run we have little interest in revising manuscripts jogging on the stairmaster and skipping the chocolate souffleala mode delay of gratification is a nice long term goal but instant gratification is disconcertingly tempting this gap between long run intentions and short run actions is apparent across a wide range of behaviors including saving choices a 1997 survey found that 76 percent of respondents believe they should be saving more for retirement looking only at respondents who believed they were at an age where you should be seriously saving already the survey found that 55 percent reported being behind in their savings and only 6 percent reported being ahead farkas and johnson 1997 the report on the survey concluded t he gaps between people s atti tudes intentions and behavior are troubling and threaten increased insecurity and dissatisfaction for people when they retire americans are simply not doing what logic and their own reasoning suggests they should be doing a 1993 luntz webber merrill lynch survey found similar answers when baby boomers were asked what percentage of your annual household income do you think you should save for retirement and what percentage of your annual

the effect of income on subjective well being evidence from the 2008 economic stimulus tax rebates this paper uses tax rebate payments from the 2008 economic stimulus to estimate the effect of a one time change in income on three measures of subjective well being life satisfaction health satisfaction and affect the income effect is identified by exploiting the plausibly exogenous variation in the payment schedule of the rebates using both ordinary least squares and two stage least squares estimators i find that the rebates had a large and positive impact on affect which is explained by a reduction in feelings of stress and worry for life satisfaction and health satisfaction there is weaker evidence of a positive impact

snap benefits and crime evidence from changing disbursement schedules in this paper we study the effects of the timing of nutritional aid disbursement on crime using two main sources of variation a a policy change in illinois that substantially increased the num

possession and discounting behavior abstract subjects chose when they could first use financial rewards between choices 2 months apart we manipulated the early reward date and whether participants took immediate possession quasi hyperbolic discounting is rejected in favor of hyperbolic discounting without but not with possession

who benefited from burundi s demobilization program this paper assesses the impact of the demobilization reinsertion and reintegration program in post war burundi two major rebel groups benefited from cash and in kind transfers the cndd fdd from 2004 and the fnl from 2010 a panel data of households collected in 2006 and 2010 is combined with official records from the national commission for demobilization reinsertion and reintegration regression analysis shows that the cash payments received by fnl demobilized households had a positive impact on consumption nonfood spending and investments the program also generated positive spillovers in the villages where fnl combatants returned ex combatants indeed spent a large part of their allowance on consumption goods and clothing thereby generating a short run economic boom in villages however the long run evolution of consumption indicators is negative for cndd fdd households as well as for villages where cndd fdd combatants returned suggesting that the direct impact and the spillovers of the program vanished in the long run

is addiction rational theory and evidence this paper makes two contributions to the modeling of addiction first we provide new and convincing evidence that smokers are forward looking in their smoking decisions using state excise tax increases that have been legislatively enacted but are not yet effective and monthly data on consumption second we recognize the strong evidence that preferences with respect to smoking are time inconsistent with individuals both not recognizing the true dife culty of quitting and searching for self control devices to help them quit we develop a new model of addictive behavior that takes as its starting point the standard rational addiction model but incorporates time inconsistent preferences this model also exhibits forward looking behavior but it has strikingly different normative implications in this case optimal government policy should depend not only on the externalities that smokers impose on others but also on the internalities imposed by smokers on themselves we estimate that the optimal tax per pack of cigarettes should be at least one dollar higher under our formulation than in the rational addiction case

the effect of bank account ownership on credit and consumption evidence from the uk this article examines the causal effects of bank account ownership on credit access and consumption by isolating an exogenous change in account ownership produced by an electronic transfer mandate in the universal uk child benefit program comparing households with and without children finds that the mandate substantially affected banking behavior with an 8 6 relative increase in transaction account ownership when households transition into account ownership results indicate large increases in credit card ownership 89 and household durable goods 55 similar changes are not seen in loan use weekly expenditures or vehicle ownership additional evidence from a panel data set indicate declines in the use of fringe bank credit informal loans and debt after households transition into bank account ownership in total evidence suggests that an important effect of owning a bank account is improved access to credit cards which enables durable good consumption

who is behavioral cognitive ability and anomalous preferences in this paper we ask whether variation in preference anomalies is related to variation in cognitive ability evidence from a new laboratory study of chilean high school students with similar schooling backgrounds shows that small stakes risk aversion and short run discounting are less common among those with higher standardized test scores the relationship with test scores survives controls for parental education and wealth we find some evidence that elementary school gpa is predictive of preferences measured at the end of high school two laboratory interventions provide suggestive evidence of a possible causal impact of cognitive resources on expressed preferences jel j24 d14 c91

opportunity cost consideration normatively consumers should incorporate opportunity costs into every decision they make yet behavioral research suggests that consumers consider them rarely if at all this research addresses when consumers consider opportunity costs who considers opportunity costs which opportunity costs spontaneously spring to mind and what the consequences of considering opportunity costs are perceived constraints cue consumers to consider opportunity costs and consumers high in propensity to plan consider opportunity costs even when not cued by immediate constraints the specific alternatives retrieved and the likelihood of retrieval are functions of category structures in memory for a given resource some uses are more typical of the category of possible uses and so are more likely to be considered as opportunity costs consumers who consider opportunity costs are less likely to buy focal options than those who do not when opportunity costs are appealing but no less likely when opportunity costs are unappe

pay as you go prepaid metering and electricity expenditures in south africa abstract high rates of customer default on utility bills present a barrier to the expansion of electricity access in the developing world pre paid electricity metering offers a technological solut

present bias quasi hyperbolic discounting and fixed costs in this paper we elicit preferences for money time pairs via experimental techniques we estimate a general specification of discounting that nests exponential and hyperbolic discounting as well as various forms of present bias including quasi hyperbolic discounting our experimental data do not appear peculiar in any dimension in particular we find clear evidence for present bias as most of the previous literature however no evidence for quasi hyperbolic discounting is found and the data strongly favor instead a specification with a small present bias in the form of a fixed cost of the order of 4 on average across subjects with such a fixed cost the curvature of discounting is imprecisely estimated and exponential discounting is hardly rejected in this specification the present bias tends to vanish for economically relevant monetary rewards

re evaluating the role of energy efficiency standards a behavioral economics approach abstract the economic models that prescribe pigovian taxation as the first best means of reducing energy related externalities are typically based on the neoclassical model of rational consumer choice yet consumer behavior in markets for energy using durables is generally thought to be far from efficient giving rise to the concept of the energy efficiency gap this paper presents a welfare analysis of energy policies that is based on a behavioral model of temptation and self control introduced by gul and pesendorfer 23 24 we find that in the presence of temptation i pigovian taxes alone do not yield a first best outcome ii when viewed as substitutes energy efficiency standards can dominate pigovian taxes and iii a policy combining standards with a pigovian tax can yield higher social welfare than a pigovian tax alone implying that the two instruments should be viewed as complements rather than substitutes

the effects of benefit timing and income fungibility on food purchasing decisions among supplemental nutrition assistance program households the supplemental nutrition assistance program snap is the largest nutritional safety net in the united states prior research has found that participants have higher consumption shortly after receiving their benefits followed by lower consumption towards the end of the benefit month known as the snap benefit cycle this consumption pattern has been found to have negative effects on beneficiaries we hypothesize two behavioral responses of snap participants may work in tandem to drive much of the cycle 1 short run impatience a higher preference to consume today and 2 fungibility of income the degree of substitutability between a snap dollar and a cash dollar using data from the national food acquisition and purchase survey foodaps a newly developed nationally representative survey of daily food acquisitions by snap households we find evidence of both behavioral responses however the degree of short run impatience and fungibility of income is found to differ significantly across poverty levels and use of grocery lists to plan food purchases snap households could gain from food purchase planning education

estimating the value of an in kind transfer the case of food stamps the value of one in kind transfer food stamps is estimated by evaluating the experience of an actual conversion from stamps to cash in puerto rico in 1982 the evidence indicates that the cashout of the stamps had no detectable influence on food expenditures the explanation partly lies in the distribution of expenditures for the stamps were inframarginal for most recipients however some evidence indicates that trafficking in stamps was widespread as well including indirect evidence from estimation of the piecewise linear constraint model copyright 1989 by the econometric society

are consumers forward looking evidence from fiscal experiments how changes in current and future income affect consumer spending is a perennial question in macroeconomics and public finance theoretical constructs such as the permanent income hypothesis are of limited assistance in resolving this issue because they neglect borrowing constraints and other market imperfections that can significantly affect the marginal propensity to spend out of current income recent empirical work has also proven inconclusive since whether consumption responds to income fluctuations by more or less than the permanent income hypothesis predicts turns critically upon whether disposable income follows a random walk or is stationary around a longrun trend see john campbell and angus deaton 1987 this controversy is unlikely to be resolved conclusively because it is notoriously difficult to distinguish a stationary but highly persistent time series from one that is nonstationary these difficulties suggest the importance of searching for natural experiments income shocks with predictable and well understood effects on future income to test models of consumer behavior changes in federal tax and transfer policy during the last two decades provide several episodes of this type analyzing the effects of these tax changes is also central to understanding the role of fiscal policy in affecting national saving this paper examines two aspects of consumer response to tax changes section i argues that consumption responds to temporary income tax shocks by more than the permanent income hypothesis would suggest results from the 1975 tax rebate in particular suggest that a 1 increase in transitory income raises spending by about 20 cents section ii examines consumption responses to tax announcements although the results are not conclusive they suggest that some consumers do not adjust consumption in anticipation of tax changes the final section sketches some implications for analyzing fiscal policy

the liquid hand to mouth evidence from personal finance management software we use a very accurate panel of all individual spending income balances and credit limits from a personal finance software to document spending responses to the arrival of both regular and irregular income these payday responses are robust and homogeneous for all income and spending categories throughout the income distribution moreover we find that few people hold little or no liquidity we then analyze whether people hold liquidity cushions to cope with future liquidity constraints however we find that peoples responses are consistent with standard models without illiquid savings in which neither present nor future liquidity constraints are frequently binding received may 31 2016 editorial decision september 30 2017 by editor itay goldstein

the impact of credit risk on the pricing and duration of floating rate notes abstract this paper describes the pricing and duration of floating rate instruments when the borrower s credit risk has changed since the note was issued in these cases the value of the note on repricing dates equals par plus the present value of the basis point change in credit risk as a result the duration of a floater for which credit risk has increased fallen is less than greater than the time to reset and may even be negative positive correlation between credit risk and interest rates will ceteris paribus increase the duration of the floater

social identity and preferences social identities prescribe behaviors for people we identify the marginal behavioral effect of these norms on discount rates and risk aversion by measuring how laboratory subjects choices change when an aspect of social identity is made salient when we make ethnic identity salient to asian american subjects they make more patient choices when we make racial identity salient to black subjects non immigrant blacks but not immigrant blacks make more patient choices making gender identity salient has no effect on intertemporal or risk choices

is there a daily discount rate evidence from the food stamp nutrition cycle abstract quasi hyperbolic discounting predicts impatience over short run tradeoffs i present a direct non laboratory test of this implication using data on the nutritional intake of food stamp recipients caloric intake declines by 10 to 15 percent over the food stamp month implying a significant preference for immediate consumption these findings constitute a rejection of the permanent income hypothesis and are extremely difficult to reconcile with exponential discounting the data support an explanation based on time preference and reject several alternative explanations including highly elastic intertemporal substitution i explore implications for the optimal timing of transfer payments under alternative assumptions about preferences

we are what we eat obesity income and social comparisons abstract the empirical evidence of a non monotone relation between income and obesity is not well explained we build a theoretical model combining income inequality and social comparisons to explain the link between income and obesity and study tax policy implications for fighting obesity we assume that differences in food consumption patterns between poor and wealthy households partly reflect positionality which is the concern for social status our key assumption is that positionality for low calorie food consumption is positively related to a country s wealth in this framework body weight outcomes reflect competing income and positionality effects yielding the following results we explain the link between average obesity rates and standards of living and suggest the existence of a kuznets curve for obesity in accordance with empirical evidence for cross sections of the population we explain the observed correlation between income and obesity which is positive in poor countries and negative in rich countries we find that increasing the relative cost of high calorie food is less effective at decreasing the relative weight of poor individuals in rich countries than in poor countries

the effects of government transfers on monthly cycles in drug abuse hospitalization and mortality this paper analyzes the monthly patterns of adverse outcomes due to the consumption of illegal drugs by recipients of government transfer payments we find evidence that certain subpopulations on government cash aid significantly increase their consumption of drugs when their checks arrive at the beginning of the month and as a result experience adverse events including hospitalization and death using data from california we find that the overall rate of drug related hospital admissions increases abruptly at the beginning of the month with admissions increasing 23 during the first five days of the month we find that this cycle is driven largely by recipients of supplemental security income ssi ssi recipients also experience an abrupt 22 increase in within hospital mortality after receiving their checks these findings suggest that full wallets adversely affect some aid recipients and that policymakers should explore alternate disbursement regimes such as a staggered disbursement schedule or in kind support that have the potential to reduce the rate of adverse events

consumption smoothing and frequency of benefit payments of cash transfer programs we examine the extent of consumption smoothing between the receipt of benefits by households after the introduction of two non contributory pension programs in the state of yucatan mexico

choice and procrastination author s o donoghue ted rabin matthew abstract recent models of procrastination due to self control problems assume that a procrastinator considers just one option and is unaware of her self control problems we develop a model where a person chooses from a menu of options and is partially aware of her self control problems this menu model replicates earlier results and generates new ones a person might forego completing an attractive option because she plans to complete a more attractive but never to be completed option hence providing a non procrastinator additional options can induce procrastination and a person may procrastinate worse pursuing important goals than unimportant ones

estimating the impact of low income universal service programs this policy study uses u s census microdata to evaluate how subsidies for universal telephone service vary in their impact across low income racial groups gender age and home ownership our demand specification includes both the subsidized monthly price lifeline program and the subsidized initial connection price linkup program for local telephone service our quasi maximum likelihood estimation controls for location differences and instruments for price endogeneity the microdata allow us to estimate the effects of demographics on both elasticities of telephone penetration and the level of telephone penetration based on our preferred estimates the subsidy programs increased aggregate penetration by 6 1 for households below the poverty line our results suggest that automatic enrollment programs are important and that linkup is more cost effective than lifeline which calls into question a recent fcc 2012 decision to reduce linkup subsidies in favor of lifeline our study can inform the evaluation of similar universal service policies for internet access

spousal control and intra household decision making an experimental study in the philippines i elicit causal effects of spousal observability and communication on financial choices of married individuals in the philippines when choices are private men put money into their personal accounts when choices are observable men commit money to consumption for their own benefit when required to communicate men put money into their wives account these strong treatment effects on men but not women appear related more to control than to gender men whose wives control household savings respond more strongly to the treat ment and women whose husbands control savings exhibit the same response changes in information and communication interact with underlying control to produce mutable gender specific outcomes

the schooling decision family preferences intergenerational conflict and moral hazard in the brazilian favelas this paper experimentally analyzes the schooling decisions of poor households in urban brazil we elicit parents choices between monthly government transfers conditional on their adolescent child attending school and guaranteed unconditional transfers of varying sizes in the baseline treatment an overwhelming majority of parents prefer conditional transfers to larger unconditional transfers however few parents prefer conditional payments if they are offered text message notifications whenever their child misses school these findings suggest important intergenerational conflicts in these schooling decisions a lack of parental control and observability of school attendance and an additional rationale for conditional cash transfer programs the monitoring they provide

time preference and the importance of saving for retirement abstract this study models the importance respondents place on saving for retirement as a function of time preference using a sample of 6812 undergraduate and graduate students individual time preference is measured by comparing dollar values over time and through a combination of intertemporal behaviors that may be the most theoretically appropriate measurement of the discount rate for utility over time results show strong correlations among decision making domains that involve time discounting time preference measured by comparing dollar amounts across time proves a much weaker predictor than a combination of intertemporal behaviors measured either as a linear scale or as factors in multivariate models a factor of intertemporal preventive health behaviors is a stronger predictor of the importance of saving for retirement than all other explanatory variables including age race parental income gender gpa and college major

the timing of pay abstract there exists large and persistent variation in not only how but when employees are paid a fact unexplained by existing theory this paper develops a simple model of optimal pay timing for firms when workers have self control problems they under save and experience volatile consumption between paychecks thus pay whose delivery matches the timing of workers consumption needs will reduce wage costs the model also explains why pay timing should be regulated as it is in practice although the worker benefits from a timing profile that smoothes her consumption her lack of self control induces her to attempt to undo the arrangement either by renegotiating with her employer or by taking out payday loans regulation of pay timing and consumer borrowing is required to counter these efforts helping the worker help herself

income timing and liquidity constraints evidence from a randomized field experiment abstract people in developing countries sometimes desire deferred income streams which replace more frequent income flows with a single later lump sum we study the effects of short term wage deferral using a randomized experiment with participants in a temporary cash for work program workers who are assigned to lump sum payments are five percentage points more likely to purchase a high return investment we discuss the role of both barriers to saving and credit constraints in explaining our results while stated preferences for deferred payments suggest a role for savings constraints the evidence is also consistent with a simpler model of credit constraints alone

the monthly food stamp cycle shooping frequency and food intake decisions in an endogenous switching regression framework mean food spending by food stamp households peaks sharply in the first three days after benefits are received for those who conduct major grocery shopping trips only once per month 42 of all food stamp households mean food energy intake drops significantly by the fourth week of the month for the remaining households intake remains steady over the course of the month these patterns motivate an empirical model that simultaneously accounts for the shopping frequency and food intake decisions over time results have implications for policies that may affect the frequency of grocery shopping by food stamp households

failure to refinance households that fail to refinance their mortgage when interest rates decline can lose out on substantial savings based on a large random sample of outstanding u s mortgages in december of 2010 we estimate that approximately 20 of households for whom refinancing would be optimal and who appeared unconstrained to do so had not taken advantage of the lower rates we estimate the present discounted cost to the median household who fails to refinance to be approximately 11 500

an economy of scales a selective review of obesity s economic causes consequences and solutions this paper reviews the economic research on obesity covering topics such as the measurement of and trends in obesity the economic causes of obesity e g the monetary price and time cost of food food assistance programs income education macroeconomic conditions and peer effects and the economic consequences of obesity e g lower wages a lower probability of employment and higher medical care costs it also examines the extent to which obesity imposes negative externalities and economic interventions that could potentially internalize such externalities such as food taxes subsidies for school based physical activity programs and financial rewards for weight loss it discusses other economic rationales for government intervention with respect to obesity such as imperfect information time inconsistent preferences and irrational behavior it concludes by proposing a research agenda for the field overall the evidence suggests that there is no single dominant economic cause of obesity a wide variety of factors may contribute a modest amount to the risk there is consistent evidence regarding the economic consequences of obesity which are lower wages and higher medical care costs that impose negative externalities through health insurance studies of economic approaches to preventing obesity such as menu labeling taxes on energy dense foods and financial rewards for weight loss find only modest effects on weight and thus a range of policies may be necessary to have a substantial effect on the prevalence of obesity

behavioral economics and public policy a pragmatic perspective the debate about behavioral economics the incorporation of insights from psychology into economics is often framed as a question about the foundational assumptions of economic models this paper presents a more pragmatic perspective on behavioral economics that focuses on its value for improving empirical predictions and policy decisions i discuss three ways in which behavioral economics can contribute to public policy by oering new policy tools improving predictions about the eects

the sensitivity of tests of the intertemporal allocation of consumption to near rational alternatives suppose a consumer sets consumption equal to income each period rather than following the optimal permanent income decision rule how much utility does he lose this paper finds that the answer is typically less than 10 cents 1 per quarter in environments specified by popular tests on aggregate data it includes calculations of the costs of excess sensitivity and excess smoothness to income and interest rate changes and the costs of ignoring information it concludes that the theory does not make predictions for aggregate tests that are robust to small costs such as information or transactions copyright 1989 by american economic association

who feels the calorie crunch and when the impact of school meals on cyclical food insecurity abstract monthly welfare programs such as the supplemental nutrition assistance program snap produce consistent cycles of expenditure and consumption among recipients food insecurity health status crime poor behavior and test scores track these cycles this paper leverages new data from the usda the foodaps survey to better understand these cycles in three ways first i find that expenditure and consumption cycles are correlated within households a fact not previously established second i study diet quality over the benefit month and find that it worsens potentially compounding the harmful consequences of cyclical food insecurity third i find that kids bear less of the burden of the consumption cycle than adults and that much of this difference may be driven by school meal programs this finding suggests large potential gains in child welfare from expanding summer meal programs

3rd of tha month do social security recipients smooth consumption between checks this paper examines the response of consumption expenditures to the monthly receipt of social security checks since the amount and arrival date of these checks are known to the recipients the basic life cycle permanent income hypothesis lcpih predicts that consumption should not respond to the receipt of these checks using daily diary data from the consumer expenditure survey this paper finds evidence that both the dollar amount and probability of expenditures increase immediately following the receipt of this check most relevant to testing the lcpih categories of instantaneous consumption expenditure such as food away from home increase on the check arrival date the response is found primarily amongst households for whom social security is the primary source of income however the magnitude of the estimated responses are relatively small and do not suggest that the utility losses are large from this non smoothing behavior this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item