housing market responses to transaction taxes evidence from notches and stimulus in the uk we investigate housing market responses to transaction taxes using administrative data on all property transactions in the u k from 2004 to 2012 combined with quasi experimental variation from tax notches and tax stimulus we present two main findings first transaction taxes are highly distortionary across a range of margins causing large distortions to the price volume and timing of property transactions secondly temporary transaction tax cuts are an enormously effective form of fiscal stimulus a temporary elimination of a 1 transaction tax increased housing market activity by 20 in the short run due to both timing and extensive responses and less than half of the stimulus effect was reversed after the tax was reintroduced due to re timing because of the complementarities between moving house and consumer spending these stimulus effects translate into extra spending per dollar of tax cut equal to about 1 we interpret our empirical findings in the context of a housing model with downpayment constraints in which leverage amplifies the effects of transaction taxes

inefficient credit booms this paper studies the welfare properties of competitive equilibria in an economy with financial frictions hit by aggregate shocks in particular it shows that competitive financial contracts can result in excessive borrowing ex ante and excessive volatility ex post even though from a first best perspective the equilibrium always displays under borrowing from a second best point of view excessive borrowing can arise the inefficiency is due to the combination of limited commitment in financial contracts and the fact that asset prices are determined in a spot market this generates a pecuniary externality that is not internalized in private contracts the model provides a framework to evaluate preventive policies which can be used during a credit boom to reduce the expected costs of a financial crisis copyright 2008 wiley blackwell

wage bargaining central bank independence and the real effects of money the effects of financial capital mobility on monetary policy autonomy are relatively well understood but the importance of particular monetary regimes in distinct national institutional settings is not this article is a theoretical and empirical exploration of the effects of monetary policy regimes on unemployment in different national wage bargaining settings based on a rational expectations two stage game of the interaction between the wage behavior of labor unions and the monetary policies of governments i argue that monetary policies have real employment effects in all but the most decentralized bargaining systems specifically in intermediately centralized bargaining systems a credible government commitment to a nonaccommodating monetary policy rule will deter militant wage behavior with salutary effects on unemployment in highly centralized systems by contrast restrictive monetary policies will clash with unions pursuit of wage distributive goals and produce inferior employment performance only in highly fragmented bargaining systems is money neutral in the sense that employment performance is unaffected by monetary regimes the model has clear consequences for the optimal design of central banks and collective bargaining arrangements and suggests new ways to study institutional change hereunder the causal effect of increasingly globalized capital markets the argument is supported by pooled time series data for fifteen oecd countries over a twenty one year period

structural gaiatsu international finance and political change in japan argues that the principal contributor to changes in japan s political economy is the decline of japanese governmental control over capital flows and foreign exchange rates brought about by structural gaiatsu or direct foreign pressure differs from previous analysis of gaiatsu by arguing that international capital and market forces generate gaiatsu not foreign governments and that its influence has been worldwide as well as deeper and more ongoing than bilateral negotiating sessions and joint communiques related to trade discusses how the change has catalyzed a major increase in foreign direct investment by japanese owned corporations a reduction in government s ability to control corporate behavior a diminution of intra corporate linkages conflict within national economic policies and the increased penetration of the japanese economy by foreign financial institutions describes how the change has resulted in an emerging socio economic gap in japan between individuals groups and organizations demonstrates how the japanese experience suggests the transformative power of global capital markets on national political economies particularly those that have been interventionist in nature

debt deleveraging and the liquidity trap a fisher minsky koo approach in this paper we present a simple new keynesian style model of debt driven slumps that is situations in which an overhang of debt on the part of some agents who are forced into rapid deleveraging is depressing aggregate demand making some agents debt constrained is a surprisingly powerful assumption fisherian debt deflation the possibility of a liquidity trap the paradox of thrift a keynesiantype multiplier and a rationale for expansionary fiscal policy all emerge naturally from the model we argue that this approach sheds considerable light both on current economic difficulties and on historical episodes including japan s lost decade now in its 18th year and the great depression itself

foreclosures house prices and the real economy from 2007 to 2009 states without a judicial requirement for foreclosures were twice as likely to foreclose on delinquent homeowners analysis of borders of states with differing foreclosure laws reveals a discrete jump in foreclosure propensity as one enters nonjudicial states using state judicial requirement as an instrument for foreclosures we show that foreclosures led to a large decline in house prices residential investment and consumer demand from 2007 to 2009 as foreclosures subsided from 2011 to 2013 the foreclosure rates in nonjudicial and judicial requirement states converged and we find some evidence of a stronger recovery in nonjudicial states

the wealth distribution with durable goods in the united states the distribution of houses is less egalitarian than that of earnings for the total population but these two distributions are remarkably similar for homeowners additionally housing as a fraction of total wealth decreases with the level of wealth in order to understand the different factors that account for these wealth composition patterns we introduce illiquid houses and collateral credit in a general equilibrium model of heterogeneous agents with idiosyncratic uncertainty a combination of very persistent shocks to earnings frictions in the housing market and a rental market is necessary to obtain numbers in line with the evidence

house prices home equity based borrowing and the u s household leverage crisis us household leverage sharply increased in the years preceding the 2007 eco nomic recession the top panel of figure 1 shows the steady rise in household debt since 1975 which accelerated beginning in 2002 in just five years the household sector doubled its debt balance in comparison the contemporaneous increase in corporate debt was modest the middle panel shows that the increase in household debt from 2002 to 2007 translated into a striking rise in household leverage as mea sured by the debt to income ratio during the same time period corporate leverage declined the dramatic absolute and relative rise in us household leverage from 2002 to 2007 is unprecedented compared to the last 25 years one reason for the rapid expansion in household leverage during this period is that mortgage credit became more easily available to new home buyers mian and sufi 2009 strong house price appreciation from 2002 to 2006 however which may have been fueled by the availability of mortgage credit to a riskier set of new home buyers could also have had an important feedback effect on household lever age through existing homeowners given that 65 percent of us households already owned their primary residence before the acceleration in house prices the feedback from house prices to borrowing may be an important source of the rapid rise in household leverage that preceded the economic downturn our central goals in this study are to estimate how homeowner borrowing responded to the increase in house prices and to identify which homeowners responded most aggressively we examine this home equity based borrowing channel using a dataset consisting of anonymous individual credit files of a national consumer credit bureau agency we follow a random sample of over 74 000 us homeowners who owned their homes as of 1997 at an annual frequency from the end of 1997 until the end of 2008 the bottom panel of figure 1 plots the growth in debt of 1997 homeowners over time and shows that existing homeowners borrow significantly more debt as their house prices appreciate from 2002 to 2006 while the aggregate trend is suggestive

the housing market s of san diego this paper uses an assignment model to understand the cross section of house prices within a metro area movers demand for housing is derived from a lifecycle problem with credit market frictions equilibrium house prices adjust to assign houses that dier by quality to movers who dier by age income and wealth to quantify the model we measure distributions of house prices house qualities and mover characteristics from micro data on san diego county during the 2000s boom the main result is that cheaper credit for poor households was a major driver of prices especially at the low end of the market

tax policy and heterogeneous investment behavior abstract we estimate the effect of temporary tax incentives on equipment investment using shifts in accelerated depreciation analyzing data for over 120 000 firms we present three findings first

the fragmentation of the bargaining society wage setting in the nordic countries 1950 to 1992 it is commonly believed that corporatist bargaining institutions have been in general decline in the 1980s and 1990s the leading explanations of the purported universal trend toward greater decentralization of collective bargaining are the impact of technological change changes in the occupational structure and growing international economic integration decentralization should be particularly visible in the nordic countries because collective bargaining was more centralized in these countries in the 1960s and 1970s than in any others in western europe in this article the authors present data on the changes in the centralization of wage bargaining in the four nordic countries since 1950 they document that a significant decentralization of collective bargaining has occurred in sweden as is well known but not in the other three the article concludes with a review of possible explanations of swedish exceptionalism

employers and the welfare state the political economic organization of firms and social policy in contemporary capitalist democracies the authors argue that the organization of employers shapes social policy support among firms and in turn affects social policy outcomes specifically the authors argue that the centralization and cohesion of employer groups and economic cooperation across enterprises positively affects social welfare provision empirically the authors assess the impacts of business organization on social welfare effort in 15 developed democracies between the 1970s and 1990s the authors also provide analysis of the impact of employer organization on active labor market policy the authors find that the organization of employers is one of the most important determinants of overall social welfare effort the authors also find that employer organization affects the development of active labor market policies and it influences the degree to which social democratic parties pursue active labor market programs the authors conclude with a discussion of the findings implications for theories of social corporatism and the w

foreclosure vacancy and crime abstract this paper examines the impact of residential foreclosures and vacancies on violent and property crime to overcome confounding factors a difference in difference research design is applied to a unique data set containing geocoded foreclosure and crime data from pittsburgh pennsylvania results indicate that while foreclosure alone has no effect on crime violent crime rates increase by roughly 19 once the foreclosed home becomes vacant an effect that increases with length of vacancy we find weak evidence suggesting a potential vacancy effect for property crime that is much lower in magnitude

consumer durables and inertial behaviour estimation and aggregation of s s rules for automobile purchases the s s model originally introduced in the study of inventories see arrow et al 1951 scarf 1959 has recently received renewed attention both in the durable consumption and in the investment and labour demand literatures caballero 1993 for instance appeals to these type of models to explain the time series properties of durable expenditure and in particular the persistence or slow adjustment of such a variable in this paper i model the purchase behaviour of automobiles by u s households as an s s rule i estimate a flexible specification of such a rule using a large microeconomic data set and study some of the aggregate implications of this type of inertial behaviour the paper is one of the first attempts at estimating directly the parameters of an s s rule using micro data because of this some of the methodological issues concerning the specification and the estimation of s s rules are relevant for many potential applications furthermore the paper is one of the first to discuss and quantify the aggregate implications of an s s rule estimated on micro data in the presence of non convex transaction costs a full and consistent characterization of individual behaviour is very hard and typically requires strong restrictions grossman and laroque 1991 prove that an s s rule is optimal for a consumption and investment problem under very special circumstances some of their results were extended by eberly 1991 and beaulieu 1993a b eberly 1991 in particular has derived some closed form solutions for durable consumption in the presence of transaction costs while caballero and engel 1994 construct a model of investment where an s s rule is optimal the main problem with these theoretical results is that it is only possible to show optimality of s s rules under very stringent conditions in particular a necessary condition to derive them is that the optimization problem faced by an individual consumer can be reduced to a problem with a single state variable unfortunately as pointed out by bar ilan and blinder 1992 even simple generalizations are extremely difficult to analyse

asset fire sales and credit easing in a january 2009 lecture on the financial crisis federal reserve chairman bernanke advocated a new fed policy of credit easing defined as a combination of lending to financial institutions providing liquidity directly to key credit markets and buying of long term securities we show that bernanke s analysis and recommendations can be naturally considered in a model of unstable banking which relies on two mechanisms 1 fire sales reduce asset prices below fundamental values and 2 financial institutions prefer speculation to new lending when markets are dislocated we analyze credit easing and compare it to alternative government interventions during the crisis this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

tax policy in an era of internationalization explaining the spread of neoliberalism i offer an explanation for the widespread diffusion of neoliberal tax policies in the developed democracies after accounting for the policy influences of commonly experienced domestic and international forces i consider several plausible paths of diffusion of neoliberal tax structure my central argument is that the highly visible 1980s market conforming tax reform in the united states should be especially important in shaping subsequent tax policies in other polities there are substantial reasons to believe however that domestic political and institutional forces will shape policymaker assessment of the benefits and costs of neoliberal reforms the strength of right parties and the degree to which the median voter has moved right should condition adoption of neoliberal tax policy the institutions of national and sector coordinated capitalism should also slow the enactment of neoliberal tax reforms i assess these arguments with empirical models of 1981 98 tax rates on capital in sixteen nations i find that changes in u s tax policy influence subsequent reforms in other polities in the long term all nations move toward the u s neoliberal tax structure analysis also shows however that the short term responsiveness to u s tax reforms is notably greater where uncoordinated market institutions are dominant theory and extensive qualitative and quantitative evidence indicate that pressures to compete for mobile assets as balanced against the economic and political costs of adoption anchor the process of diffusion of neoliberal tax policy there is little evidence for the view that systematic policy learning or social emulation drove tax policy diffusion earlier versions of this article were presented at the center for european studies and weatherhead center for international affairs harvard university center for international studies ucla and yale university as well as the 2002 annual meetings of the american political science association an earlier version was published as minda de gunzburg center for european studies harvard university working paper 120 i thank alex hicks rob franzese torben iversen andy martin cathie jo martin participants in the yale ucla and harvard conferences especially geoffrey garrett helen milner dennis quinn and beth simmons and two anonymous referees and the editors of international organization for helpful comments i also gratefully acknowledge the contribution of sven steinmo that comes by way of our past collaborative work on tax policy

bringing capital back in or social democracy reconsidered employer power cross class alliances and centralization of industrial relations in denmark and sweden the political domination of social democrats in denmark and sweden beginning in the 1930s was stabilized by the absence of intense opposition by capital to reformist programs aggressively opposed by business and the right elsewhere in the world this quiescence was not a symptom of weakness or dependency rather it was a product of a class intersecting cross class alliance behind institutions of centralized industrial relations that served mutual interests of sectoral groupings dominating both union and employer confederations well organized and militant and backed by social democrats employers in the two countries used offensive multi industry lockouts to force centralization on reluctant unions analysis of these cross class alliances and their pay distributional objectives is used to challenge a widely held view that centralization and social democratic electoral strength are sources of power against capital it also occasions a reassessment of conventional understandings of farmer labor coalitions and the decline of industrial conflict in scandinavia in the 1930s according to the alternative view presented here capital was included rather than excluded from these cross class alliances and industrial conflict subsided dramatically in part because employers achieved politically what they had previously tried to achieve with the lockout

social protection and economic integration the politics of pension reform in an era of capital mobility in the past two decades of the 20th century governments around the world began to apportion greater responsibility for old age income provision to individuals and market forces through the privati

a positive theory of the earnings relationship of unemployment benefits in a wage bargaining model a stronger earnings relationship of unemployment benefits may reduce wages therefore the benefit structure significantly influences profits and trade union utility raising the question as to how the benefit structure is determined in the political process we consider a government that chooses the earnings relationship in order to maximize its political support our model predicts a strong earnings relationship under right wing governments and a weak relationship when unions are influential using panel data for 19 oecd countries we find support for these theoretical predictions moreover we show that the earnings relationship varies negatively with openness

does the organization of capital matter employers and active labor market policy at the national and firm levels does the organization of business matter for social policy development in the advanced capitalist democracies conventional welfare state analysis has given this significant question scant attention we argue however that the representational power of business coordination across business interest units and integration of associations in corporatist policy making forums or what we call the social corporatist organization of business should result in greater support and participation by employers in social policy formation and implementation we test our arguments with models both of 1980 98 pooled time series data on withinand across country variation in spending on active labor market programs and of extensive firm level survey data from denmark and the united kingdom we find that the centralization and coordination of employers as well as the integration of employer organizations in corporatist policy making forums are strongly associated with shares of national income devoted to active labor market policy we find moreover that the degree of employer organization conditions active labor market policy responses to de industrialization and increases in general unemployment at the firm level membership in an employer association has a significant positive effect on employer participation in active labor market programs in corporatist denmark but not in the pluralist united kingdom

making and breaking social capital the impact of welfare state institutions since the debate about the importance of social capital and civil society for the quality of democracy began scandinavia has caused problems observers have been bewildered by an allegedly paradoxical coexistence of a wealth of social capital and extensive welfare state arrangements some theorize that large welfare states make engagement in voluntary associations unnecessary making the production of social capital more difficult however empirical research shows scandinavia to have comparatively high levels of social capital to solve this paradox the authors address how the causal mechanism between variation in the design of welfare state institutions and social capital works the empirical analysis based on swedish survey data suggests that the specific design of welfare state policies matters for the production of social capital contacts with universal welfare state institutions tend to increase social trust whereas experiences with needs testing social programs undermine it the policy implic

durables nondurables down payments and consumption excesses abstract we examine a model that generalizes the standard buffer stock model of saving to accommodate durables nondurables down payment requirements and adjustment costs in the durables market we find that nondurable consumption becomes more volatile relative to income as down payments decrease at the individual and at the aggregate level moreover for plausible parameter values the model can explain the excess smoothness and excess sensitivity observed in u s aggregate data the result follows from a gradual adjustment of consumption to permanent income shocks when agents attempt to spread out the burden of down payments over time compounded by slow adjustment due to transaction costs

government intervention in the housing market who wins who loses abstract many u s government policies aim to encourage homeownership we use a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents to consider the effects of temporary homebuyer tax credits and the asymmetric tax treatment of owner occupied and rental housing on prices quantities allocations and welfare the model suggests that homebuyer tax credits temporarily raise house prices and transaction volumes but have negative effects on welfare removing the asymmetric tax treatment of owner occupied and rental housing can generate welfare gains for a majority of agents across steady states but welfare impacts are substantially more varied along the transitions between steady states

expenditure on durable goods a case for slow adjustment for more than a half a decade the fact that expenditure on durables can be well approximated by a random walk has remained a hidden puzzle challenging almost any theory in which agents smooth the use of their wealth this paper shows that once a nonparsimonious approach is used or lower frequencies of the data are examined the fact itself disappears changes in expenditures on durables reveal a degree of reversion consistent with the permanent income hypothesis pih although this reversion occurs at a rate significantly slower than what is suggested by a frictionless pih model

capital reallocation and liquidity this paper studies the cyclical properties of capital reallocation and the frictions which inhibit such reallocation we show that the amount of capital reallocation and the benefits to reallocation vary at the business cycle frequency the amount of capital reallocation is procyclical in contrast the benefits to capital reallocation appear countercyclical we measure the amount of reallocation using data on flows of capital across firms and the benefits to capital reallocation using several measures of the cross sectional dispersion of the productivity of capital we then study a calibrated model of an economy where capital reallocation is costly and impute the cost of reallocation which is consistent with the amount of and benefits to reallocation in the data we find that the cost of reallocation needs to be substantially countercyclical to be consistent with the observed joint cyclical properties of reallocation and productivity dispersion the cyclical variation in this cost is interpreted as variation in the liquidity of capital broadly defined since physical costs are unlikely to vary countercyclically

social democracy christian democracy constitutional structure and the welfare state the literature on the determinants of welfare state effort displays many inconsistencies and contradictins this article takes imoprtant stepts toward resolving these issues with the use of pooled

house prices borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle i develop a general equilibrium model with sticky prices credit constraints nominal loans and asset prices changes in asset prices modify agents borrowing capacity through collateral value changes in nominal prices affect real repayments through debt deflation monetary policy shocks move asset and nominal prices in the same direction and are amplified and propagated over time the financial accelerator is not constant across shocks nominal debt stabilises supply shocks making the economy less volatile when the central bank controls the interest rate i discuss the role of equity debt indexation and household and firm leverage in the propagation mechanism finally i find that monetary policy should not target asset prices as a means of reducing output and inflation volatility

economic globalization the macro economy and reversals of welfare expansion in affluent democracies 1978 94 a key question in debates over globalization is its effect on the welfare states in particular on welfare retrenchments programmatic retractions of the scope and coverage of social programs we conceptualize such retrenchments as discrete policy events and we offer a comprehensive model of their occurrence that integrates domestic economic political and institutional factors as well as those related to the global economy our analysis of all such retrenchments in organization for economic cooperation and development oecd nations between 1978 and 1994 indicates that the effects of globalization are complex with trade openness and financial liberalization clearly operating against such retrenchments but outward foreign direct investment perhaps pressuring for them in addition we uncover support for a dynamic of self limiting immoderation economic and demographic pressures for costly welfare expenditures provoke actions to roll back eligibility and benefit rates that link increasing numbers of unemployed and retired persons to increased social spending in short the same demographic pressures that gave often been noted to substantially drive welfare spending may trigger welfare cutbacks our thanks to a a alderson bob jackman lane kenworthy joakim palme duane swank john stephen and two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments and discussions as well as to kendralin freedman for her work preparing the final manuscript all remaining errors are our own previous versions of this article were presented at the annual meetings of the american political science association and the american sociological association the views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not reflect the opinions of the national science foundation or the u s government all data and commands necessary to replicate the analyses presented here are available at our web site http polisci emory edu zorn hz index html

consumption dynamics during recessions when will durable expenditures respond strongly to economic stimulus we build from micro evidence and show that in a heterogeneous agent business cycle model with xed costs of durable adjustment responsiveness is substantially dampened during recessions our model estimates imply that during the great recession durable expenditures were half as responsive to additional stimulus as during the boom in the 1990s this procyclical responsiveness is driven by changes in the distribution of households desired durable holdings over the cycle we directly test our model by estimating this distribution empirically using psid micro data and nd that the distribution in the data moves cyclically as predicted in addition to this micro evidence we also provide support for our model s procyclical responsiveness using aggregate time series data and we show this time series evidence is inconsistent with simpler models featuring smooth adjustment costs

stimulating housing markets we study temporary fiscal stimulus designed to support distressed housing markets by inducing demand from buyers in the private market using difference in differences and regression kink research designs we find that the first time homebuyer credit increased home sales by 490 000 9 8 median home prices by 2 400 1 1 per standard deviation increase in program exposure and the transition rate into homeownership by 53 the policy response did not reverse immediately instead demand comes from several years in the future induced buyers were three years younger in 2009 than typical first time buyers the program s market stabilizing benefits likely exceeded its direct stimulus effects

a macroprudential approach to financial regulation many observers have argued that the regulatory framework in place prior to the global financial crisis was deficient because it was largely microprudential in nature a microprudential approach is one in which regulation is partial equilibrium in its conception and aimed at preventing the costly failure of individual financial institutions by contrast a macroprudential approach recognizes the importance of general equilibrium effects and seeks to safeguard the financial system as a whole in the aftermath of the crisis there seems to be agreement among both academics and policymakers that financial regulation needs to move in a macroprudential direction in this paper we offer a detailed vision for how a macroprudential regime might be designed our prescriptions follow from a specific theory of how modern financial crises unfold and why both an unregulated financial system as well as one based on capital rules that only apply to traditional banks is likely to be fragile we begin by identifying the key market failures at work why individual financial firms acting in their own interests deviate from what a social planner would have them do next we discuss a number of concrete steps to remedy these market failures we conclude the paper by comparing our proposals to recent regulatory reforms in the united states and to proposed global banking reforms

internationalization and the social democratic model crisis and future prospects this article examines the crisis of the social democratic model in the four countries austria norway finland and sweden in which social democracy was most successful in maintaining and even extending its two central achievements full employment and the institutional welfare state through the end of the 1980s four major conclusions emerge from the analysis first supply side measures more so than demand management were central to the employment and growth models pursued by social democracy prior to the early 1970s second the increasing trade openness contributed little to the recent problems of social democracy by contrast financial internationalization and deregulation and the multinationalization of capital undermined important features of the supply and demand sides of the models third changes in the international and domestic economies have weakened centralized bargaining fourth governments in the three nordic countries made serious mistakes in economic policy which greatly aggravated

trust in large organizations several authors suggest that trust is an important determinant of cooperation between strangers in a society and therefore of performance of social institutions we argue that trust should be particularly important for the performance of large organizations in a cross section of countries evidence on government performance participation in civic and professional societies importance of large firms and the performance of social institutions more generally supports this hypothesis moreover trust is lower in countries with dominant hierarchical religions which may have deterred networks of cooperation trust hold up remarkably well on a cross section of countries this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

a dynamic model of housing demand estimation and policy implications a dynamic model of housing demand using data from the panel study of income dynamics psid we specify estimate and simulate a dynamic structural model of housing demand our model generalizes previous applied econometric work by incorporating realistic features of the housing market including non convex adjustment costs from buying and selling a home credit constraints from minimum downpayment requirements and uncertainty about the evolution of incomes and home prices we argue that these features are critical for capturing salient features of housing demand observed in the psid after estimating the model we use it to simulate how consumer behavior responds to house price and income declines as well as tightening credit these experiments are motivated by the u s recession starting in december of 2007 that saw large falls in home prices large negative income shocks for many households and tightening credit standards in the short run relatively few households adjust their housing stock households respond instead by reducing non housing consumption and reducing wealth because they wish to avoid losing their home and the associated adjustment costs households that adjust in the short run are those hit with a series of bad shocks such as a negative income shock and a home price decline a larger proportion of households do adjust their consumption in the long run increasing their housing stock since housing is less expensive however such changes may occur several years after the shocks listed above

the effect of interest rates on home buying evidence from a shock to mortgage insurance premiums abstract regression discontinuity estimates indicate that home buying is highly responsive to interest rates in a large segment of the population a surprise 50 basis point cut in the effective interest rate for mortgages insured by the federal housing administration fha led to an immediate 14 percent increase in home buying among the fha reliant population we show that this large extensive margin effect arises from the rate cut helping borrowers overcome maximum debt payment to income dti thresholds we conclude that binding dti constraints are an important feature of the mortgage market that amplify the effect of interest rate shocks

liquidity vs wealth in household debt obligations evidence from housing policy in the great recession we exploit variation in mortgage modifications to disentangle the impact of reducing long term obligations with no change in short term payments wealth and reducing short term payments with no change in long term obligations liquidity using regression discontinuity and difference in differences research designs with administrative data measuring default and consumption we find that principal reductions that increase wealth without affecting liquidity have no effect while maturity extensions that increase only liquidity have large effects this suggests that liquidity drives default and consumption decisions for borrowers in our sample and that distressed debt restructurings can be redesigned with substantial gains to borrowers lenders and taxpayers

inequality social insurance and redistribution is the political support for welfare policy higher or lower in less egalitarian societies we answer the question using a model of welfare policy as publicly financed insurance that pays benefits in a redistributive manner when voters have both redistributive and insurance motives for supporting welfare spending the effect of inequality depends on how benefits are targeted greater inequality increases support for welfare expenditures when benefits are targeted to the employed but decreases support when benefits are targeted to those without earnings with endogenous targeting support for benefits to those without earnings declines as inequality increases whereas support for aggregate spending is a v shaped function of inequality statistical analysis of welfare expenditures in advanced industrial societies provides support for key empirical implications of the model

economic growth and welfare state a case study of sweden in this article we analyse the relation between the dynamics of economic growth and the welfare state using the swedish experience as a case study we defend three theses concerning the swedish experience that the deep economic crisis of 1990 93 constituted the definite breaking point for the accumulation pattern in force since the 1950s and in crisis since the mid 1970s that the new accumulation pattern eroded the long standing symbiotic relationships between economic growth and the welfare state and that the welfare state has suffered retrenchments and qualitative changes of great importance which can be fundamentally explained by the transformations in the accumulation pattern we conclude that the changes introduced in sweden have continued to subordinate the welfare state s main goals giving priority to the new accumulation pattern

determinants of labour s income share in the era of financialisation numerous studies have analysed the decline in the labour share of income but only few have linked it to the increase in financialisation the process of financialisation can roughly be described as an increasing importance of the financial sector that had an impact on the distribution between wages and profits on the one hand and retained earnings and financial income in the form of dividends and interests on the other hand this article seeks to explore the relationship between financialisation and labour s share of income using a time series cross sectional dataset of 13 countries over the time period from 1986 until 2007 the results suggest that there is indeed a relationship between increasing dividend and interest payments of non financial corporations and the decline of the share of wages in national income other factors that can account for the decline relate to globalisation and a decrease in the bargaining power of labour

tax evasion capital gains taxes and the housing market abstract in this study we exploit a policy shock that differentially increased capital gains taxes for housing units with holding period less than 5 years and document tax avoidance and tax evasion in the residential resale market in china we show suggestive evidence that after the capital gains tax increase resale transactions exhibit more bunching above 5 years of holding period but the responses are small and imprecisely estimated more importantly using precise information of both the actual transaction price and the reported price to the tax authority we find that tax evasion measured by the difference between the two prices becomes 23 3 higher we also document that the policy has strong heterogeneous effects whereby cash buyers are 8 4 more likely to buy a house than buyers who need financing after the policy this is mainly because financing buyers prefer a higher reported price and so less tax evasion to secure higher bank loans but cash buyers do not have such concern

forced sales and house prices the market for housing differs in several important ways from the textbook model of a liquid asset market with exogenous fundamentals this implies that the price at which a house is sold can be influenced not only by general supply and demand conditions but also by idiosyncratic factors including the urgency of the sale and the effects of the ownership transfer on the physical quality of the house first houses are productive only when people are living in them owning an empty house is equivalent to throwing away the dividend on a financial asset second houses are fragile assets that need maintenance and are vulnerable to van dalism unoccupied houses are particularly vulnerable and expensive to protect third short term rental contracts involve high transactions costs resulting from the moving costs of renters and the need of homeowners to protect their property against damage fourth houses are expensive indivisible and heterogeneous assets each house has certain unique characteristics which are likely to appeal to certain poten tial buyers and not to others so selling a house requires matching it with an appro priate buyer because of the high costs of intermediation in housing this task is normally undertaken by a real estate broker rather than a dealer fifth most home owners must finance their purchases using mortgages collateralized debt contracts that transfer home ownership to the mortgage lender through a foreclosure process if the homeowner defaults the expansion of mortgage credit in the early 2000s and the recent decline in house prices have led to an unprecedented increase in foreclosures since 2006 foreclosures transfer houses to financial institutions which must maintain and pro tect them until they can be sold foreclosed houses are likely to sell at low prices both because they may have been physically damaged during the foreclosure pro cess and because financial institutions have an incentive to sell them quickly in a liquid market an asset can be sold rapidly with a minimal impact on its price but

fear of fire sales illiquidity seeking and credit freezes is there any need to clean up a banking system in the midst of a crisis for instance by closing some weak banks and forcing others to sell bad assets or can one wait till the crisis is over we argue that an overhang of impaired banks that may be forced to sell assets in the future can increase the private returns to holding illiquid assets sufficiently that weak banks have no interest in selling them anticipating a potential future fire sale cash rich buyers have high expected returns to holding cash which also reduces their incentive to lock up money in term loans the potential for a worse fire sale than necessary as well as the associated decline in credit origination could make the crisis worse which is one reason it may make sense to clean up the system even in the midst of the crisis we discuss alternative ways of cleaning up the system and the associated costs and benefits

welfare states and social trust this article tests the linkage between institutional configuration and social trust highlighting the role of the welfare states in coordinating interests among different labor market actors this study initially builds a theoretical framework distinguishing training supplemented welfare regimes from transfer based welfare regimes evidence from descriptive and multivariate analyses of world values survey based on 17 advanced industrial democracies supports my argument that public investment in skill provision prevalent in training supplemented welfare states leads to higher accumulation of social trust whereas passive social transfers result in lower social trust especially high investment in public skill provision leads to a decreased gap in social trust between employers and low skilled workers as well as among different occupational groups in addition the negative effect of passive social transfers on trust is greatly ameliorated when it is jointly configured with high active labor market polici

house prices and consumer spending recent empirical work shows large consumption responses to house price movements this is at odds with a prominent theoretical view which using the logic of the permanent income hypothesis argues that consumption responses should be small we show that in contrast to this view workhorse models of consumption with incomplete markets calibrated to rich cross sectional micro facts actually predict large consumption responses in line with the data to explain this result we show that consumption responses to permanent house price shocks can be approximated by a simple and robust rule of thumb formula the marginal propensity to consume out of temporary income times the value of housing in our model consumption responses depend on a number of factors such as the level and distribution of debt the size and history of house price shocks and the level of credit supply each of these effects is naturally explained with our simple formula

balladurette and juppette a discrete analysis of scrapping subsidies this paper studies the effects of subsidies on durable goods markets in particular we focus on a recent policy in france in which the governments of balladur and juppe subsidized the replacement of old cars with new ones to study this policy we construct a dynamic stochastic discrete choice model of car ownership at the household level the resulting decision rules and equilibrium conditions are used to estimate the underlying parameters of the model using aggregate data these policy functions are used to evaluate the short and long run effects of the french policies we find that these policies do stimulate the automobile sector in the short run but through the induced changes in the cross sectional distribution of car ages create the basis for subsequent low activity further while these policies increase government revenues in the short run revenues in the long run are lower relative to a baseline without intervention

the paradox of redistribution and strategies of equality welfare state institutions inequality and poverty in the western countries the structure of welfare state institutions 2 a trade off exists between the degree of low income targeting and the size of redistributive budgets 3 outcomes of market based distribution are often more unequal than those of earnings related social insurance programs we argue that social insurance institutions are of central importance for redistributive outcomes using new data our comparative analyses of the effects of different institutional types of welfare states on poverty and inequality indicate that institutional differences lead to unexpected outcomes and generate the paradox of redistribution the more we target benefits at the poor and the more concerned we are with creating equality via equal public transfers to all the less likely we are to reduce poverty and inequality social scientists and social reformers have long debated how the welfare state and social policies should be designed so as to best reduce poverty and inequality this debate involves two different issues one question concerns whether social policies should be targeted or universal that is should they be organized for the poor only or should the welfare state include all citizens in the context of nontargeted programs another question concerns the level of benefits should benefits be equal for all or should they be related to previous earnings and in

consumer durables evidence on the optimality of usually doing nothing the authors argue that lumpy nonconvex transaction costs are the norm for a wide range of economic decisions which are thus characterized by inertial behavior application of this idea to the consumption of durable goods yields an s s decision rule which when aggregated highlights the different expected behavior of average expenditure per purchase versus the number of purchases the empirical implications of this rule are presented and compared to other theories a battery of empirical tests generally supports the predictions of the model in particular it does a good job of explaining the time pattern of response of spending on durables to a change in income copyright 1992 by ohio state university press

the politics of retrenchment in a social democratic welfare state reform of swedish pensions and unemployment insurance what explains the origins and pattern of retrenchment dynamics in swedish old age pensions and unemployment insurance during the 1990s although the economic crisis created pressure to scale back both programs the author argues that retrenchment only occurred when and where the social democratic party and some segments of the labor movement supported change this finding suggests that the political importance of organized labor in retrenchment politics depends on the relationship between welfare state programs and interest group structure when interest group structure is characterized by solidaristic centralized encompassing organizations the old class based power resource model has more explanatory bite than pierson s new politics of the welfare state approach

measuring how fiscal shocks affect durable spending in recessions and expansions we estimate how durable expenditures respond to government spending shocks at different points in the business cycle using a nonlinear var approach that allows for the durable multiplier to vary smoothly with the state of the economy we find strong evidence that the aggregate durable spending response to fiscal shocks is substantially larger during expansions than during recessions in contrast to what has been has been observed for the aggregate multiplier we argue that these results are consistent with the theoretical predictions of the fixed cost model of durable demand in berger and vavra 2012

the effects of fiscal stimulus evidence from the 2009 cash for clunkers program we evaluate the impact of the 2009 cash for clunkers program on short and medium run auto purchases our empirical strategy exploits variation across u s cities in ex ante exposure to the program as measured by the number of clunkers in the city as of summer 2008 we find that the program induced the purchase of an additional 370 000 cars in july and august 2009 however we find strong evidence of reversal high clunker counties bought fewer autos in the 10 months after the program expired which offset most of the initial purchases we find no evidence of an effect on employment house prices or household default rates in cities with higher exposure to the program jel codes h20 e62 copyright 2012 oxford university press

savings investment and international capital flows abstract the high correlation between national savings and domestic investment rateshas been interpreted as evidence that capital is not internationally mobile this paper surveys the theory and evidence on the relationship between savings and investment in a sample of 23 oecd countries a positive correlation between savings and investment rates is found in both the short and long runs however a wide variety of models generate such co movements in savings and investment in response to exogenous disturbances even under conditions of complete financial markets thus the savings investment correlation provides little evidence on the question of international capital mobility

the political economy of high income taxation capital taxation path dependence and political institutions in denmark denmark s income tax burden as the percentage of gdp is larger than the total tax burden of the united states and it has increased further after 1980 how can this be explained given increasing tax competition and widespread views that strong reliance on regressive taxes was conducive to building and maintaining large tax and welfare states the article highlights three factors first large income taxes are feasible if the capital tax burden is moderated within the income tax second the effective capital income tax burden that had developed up to the early 1980s was extremely low so that subsequent tax reforms could cut marginal tax rates on mobile types of capital income while increasing tax revenue third drastic changes in the legal structure of the income tax and stability in aggregate tax policy outcomes were facilitated by proportional representation and legislative majority rule

adjustment of consumers durables stocks evidence from automobile purchases this paper tests an optimal s s rule in household durable purchases and examines directly the resulting aggregate expenditure dynamics the observed decision rule responds to income uncertainty and growth as predicted by an s s model resulting from transactions costs tests against liquidity constraints find that about half the households purchase according to an optimal s s rule aggregating the s s rule over households produces a cross section distribution of durables holdings the empirical distribution is similar to that predicted theoretically as is its response to aggregate shocks furthermore simulations of aggregate expenditure based on the household distribution exhibit dynamics consistent with those observed in the 1980s

debt relief and slow recovery a decade after lehman abstract we follow a representative panel of millions of consumers in the united states from 2007 to 2017 and document new facts on the long term effects of the great recession there were about six million foreclosures over this period only a quarter of foreclosed households regained homeownership taking an average four years to do so this persistent loss of homeownership accounts for most of the decline in the u s homeownership rate despite massive stimulus and debt relief policies house prices consumption and unemployment remained below precrisis levels in about half of the zip codes in the united states regions that recovered to precrisis levels took on average four to five years regional variation in the extent and speed of recovery is strongly and persistently associated with frictions affecting the pass through of lower interest rates and debt relief to households

shocks stocks and socks smoothing consumption over a temporary income loss we investigate how households in temporarily straitened circumstances due to an unemploy ment spell cut back on expenditures and how they spend marginal dollars of unemployment insurance ui benefit our theoretical and empirical analyses emphasize the importance of allowing for the fact that households buy durable as well as non durable goods the theoretical analysis shows that in the short run households can cut back significantly on total expenditures without a significant fall in welfare if they concentrate their budget reductions on durables we then present an empirical analysis based on a canadian survey of workers who experienced a job separation exploiting changes in the unemployment insurance system over our sample period we show that cuts in ui benefits lead to reductions in total expenditure with a stronger impact on clothing than on food expenditures our empirical strategy allows that these expenditures may be non separable from employment status the effects we find are particularly strong for households with no liquid assets before the spell started these qualitative findings are in precise agreement with the theoretical predictions jel d11 d12 d91 j65 2009 by the european economic association

temporary investment tax incentives theory with evidence from bonus depreciation even modest reductions in the after tax cost of capital purchases provide strong incentives for increased investment indeed for tax subsidies that are temporary and for capital goods that are very long lived the incentive to invest when the after tax price is temporarily low is essentially infinite firms that would have purchased new capital equipment in the future instead make their purchases during the period of the subsidy for tax increases the effects are the opposite firms that would have normally invested now delay until the tax rate returns to normal we present a model of the equilibrium effects of temporary investment tax incentives the model reveals a simple relationship between the shadow price of investment goods and the size of a temporary investment tax incentive specifically for sufficiently long lived capital goods goods with very low rates of economic depreciation and for sufficiently short lived investment tax subsidies the shadow value of capital should be nearly unchanged and thus the pre tax shadow price of capital goods should fully reflect the magnitude of the tax subsidy this result holds regardless of the elasticity of investment supply and regardless of the underlying demand for capital instead it relies only on the firm s ability to arbitrage predictable movements in the after tax price of long lived capital over time two conclusions immediately follow first observ ing price increases following a temporary tax incentive is not evidence that investment supply is relatively inelastic a temporary investment tax subsidy can substantially affect investment even if it bids up the price of investment sharply second because economic theory dictates that the shadow price of investment moves one for one with a temporary tax subsidy the elasticity of supply can be inferred from quantity data alone recent changes in us tax law allow us to use the model and its implications to estimate struc tural parameters that govern the supply of investment the 2002 and 2003 tax bills provided temporarily accelerated tax depreciation called bonus depreciation for certain types of qualified capital goods under the 2002 bill firms could immediately deduct 30 percent of investment purchases and then depreciate the remaining 70 percent under standard depreciation schedules

asset prices and asset quantities we propose an organizing framework that determines asset prices by equating household sector asset demand derived from an economic model to the observed supply of assets provided by other sectors we then use a specific model of household asset demand to decompose historical changes in asset positions into changes in new asset supply and household income as well as changes in return expectations our findings show that supply and income changes are important determinants of the wealth to gdp ratio and real estate positions and return expectations are the key determinant of equity positions jel g11 g12 e44 e21