the impact of possible climate catastrophes on global warming policy abstract recent studies on global warming have introduced the inherent uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of climate policies and have often shown that abatement policies are likely to be less aggressive or postponed in comparison to those resulting from traditional cost benefit analyses cba yet those studies have failed to include the possibility of sudden climate catastrophes the aim of this paper is to account simultaneously for possible continuous and discrete damages resulting from global warming and to analyse their implications on the optimal path of abatement policies our approach is related to the new literature on investment under uncertainty and relies on some recent developments of the real option in which we incorporated negative jumps climate catastrophes in the stochastic process corresponding to the net benefits associated with the abatement policies the impacts of continuous and discrete climatic risks can therefore be considered separately our numerical applications lead to two main conclusions i gradual continuous uncertainty in the global warming process is likely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies with respect to the standard cba however ii the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policies as their net discounted benefits increase significantly

global risk investment and emotions we investigate a novel dynamic choice problem in an experiment where emotions are measured through self reports the choice problem concerns the investment of an amount of money in a safe option and a risky option when there is a global risk of losing all earnings from both options including any return from the risky option our key finding is that global risk can reduce the amount invested in the risky option this result cannot be explained by expected utility or by its main contenders rank dependent utility and cumulative prospect theory an explanation is offered by taking account of emotions using the emotion data from the experiment and recent psychological findings

joseph schumpeter lecture ideology i develop a model of ideologies as collectively sustained yet individually rational distortions in beliefs concerning the proper scope of governments versus markets in processing and interpreting signals of the efficacy of public and market provision of education health insurance pensions etc individuals optimally trade off the value of remaining hopeful about their future prospects or their children s versus the costs of misinformed decisions because these future outcomes also depend on whether other citizens respond to unpleasant facts with realism or denial endogenous social cognitions emerge thus an equilibrium in which people acknowledge the limitations of interventionism coexists with one in which they remain obstinately blind to them embracing a statist ideology and voting for an excessively large government conversely an equilibrium associated with appropriate public responses to market failures coexists with one dominated by a laissez faire ideology and blind faith in the invisible hand with public sector capital this interplay of beliefs and institutions leads to history dependent dynamics the model also explains why societies find it desirable to set up constitutional protections for dissenting views even when ex post everyone would prefer to ignore unwelcome news jel h11 d72 d83 p16 z1

when choosing makes a good thing better temporal variations in the valuation of hedonic consumption abstract this research investigates how the valuation of delayed consumption of hedonic products such as concerts and chocolate varies with the passage of time between choice and consumption the authors find that when consumers make their own choices they exhibit increases in evaluations of delayed consumption but only if the interval between choice and consumption is relatively short the effect attenuates over longer periods resulting in an inverted u shaped relationship between evaluations and time in contrast when somebody else chooses the same option for the consumer evaluations decrease with the passage of time these effects depend on the extent of intrinsic motivation toward the object of consumption and occur only for consummatory consumption that is of inherent interest moreover anticipatory increases in evaluations before consumption have ironic negative effects on postconsumption evaluations the authors discuss implications and directions for further research

the realization effect risk taking after realized versus paper losses abstract understanding how prior outcomes affect risk attitudes is critical for the study of choice under uncertainty a large literature documents the significant influence of prior losses on risk attitudes the findings appear contradictory some studies find greater risk taking after a loss whereas others show the opposite that people take on less risk i reconcile these seemingly inconsistent findings by distinguishing between realized versus paper losses using new and existing data i replicate prior findings and demonstrate that following a realized loss individuals avoid risk if the same loss is not realized a paper loss individuals take on greater risk jel d11 d14 d81 g11

a simple impossibility result in behavioral contract theory abstract this paper studies a contract between an optimistic agent and a realistic principal both risk neutral even with complete contracts and ex ante symmetric information it may be impossible to achieve the first best unless the weight on emotions is sufficiently low

the demand for and impact of learning hiv status this paper evaluates an experiment in which individuals in rural malawi were randomly assigned monetary incentives to learn their hiv results after being tested distance to the hiv results centers was also randomly assigned without any incentive 34 percent of the participants learned their hiv results however even the smallest incentive doubled that share using the randomly assigned incentives and distance from results centers as instruments for the knowledge of hiv status sexually active hiv positive individuals who learned their results are three times more likely to purchase condoms two months later than sexually active hiv positive individuals who did not learn their results however hiv positive individuals who learned their results purchase only two additional condoms than those who did not there is no significant effect of learning hiv negative status on the purchase of condoms

applying real options in investment decisions relating to environmental pollution abstract this study focuses on how to assess the optimal environmental investment decisions under economic and ecological uncertainty and establishes the continuous time model using the real option approach to optimize environmental pollution policy unlike traditional cost benefit analysis this work extends the model of pindyck r s 2002 optimal timing problems in environmental economics journal of economic dynamics and control 26 9 10 1677 1697 and attempts to identify the storage threshold of pollution stocks and the optimal timing for implementing environmental pollution decisions

welfare specifications and optimal control of climate change an application of fund the sensitivity of the optimal control of carbon dioxide emissions to the specification of the social welfare function is systematically explored using the fund model increasing risk aversion emphasises climate change damages relative to emission reduction costs but at the same time increases the discount rate of consumption without international co operation the discount rate effect dominates so that optimal control decreases with increasing risk aversion with international co operation optimal control first increases then decreases with increasing risk aversion since climate change falls heaviest on the poor optimal control increases with increasing inequity aversion full fledged intergenerational welfare functions on the one hand emphasise climate change damages but on the other hand place more weight on current poorer generations in fund the two tendencies almost cancel

let me dream on anticipatory emotions and preference for timing in lotteries we analyze one of the explanations why people participate in lotteries our hypothesis stipulates that part of the value that a unit of money buys in lotteries is consumed before the actual resolution in the form of emotions such as hope in other words a person holding a lottery ticket may prefer a delayed resolution of risk due to positive anticipatory emotions this conjecture is tested in an experiment with real lottery tickets we show that our theoretical considerations may contribute to explaining empirical puzzles associated with lottery participation timing of resolution and the spreading of lots over drawings more specifically we find that a substantial minority of participants prefer delayed resolution that anticipated thrill is the main variable explaining this choice and that emotions actually experienced during the waiting period are indeed predominantly positive and correlated with predictions finally we find that a great majority prefers to spread chances that is to obtain one ticket for each of two drawings rather than two for the same drawing

global warming irreversibility and learning a number of economists have argued that the literature on the irreversibility effect implies that current abatement of greenhouse gas emissions should be greater when there is the possibility of obtaining better information in the future about the potential damages from global warming than when there is no possibility of obtaining better information in this paper we show that even the simplest model of global warming does not satisfy either of epstein s 1980 sufficient conditions so it is not possible to use epstein s analysis to tell whether the irreversibility effect applies to models of global warming we derive an alternative sufficient condition for the irreversibility effect to hold

a review essay about foundations of neuroeconomic analysis by paul glimcher neuroeconomics aims to discover mechanisms of economic decision and express them mathematically to predict observed choice while the contents of neuroeconomic models and evidence are obviously different than in traditional economics some of the goals are identical to explain and predict choice the effects of comparative statics and perhaps make interesting new welfare judgments that are defensible to this end paul glimcher s important book carefully describes how economics psychological and neural levels of explanation can be linked a structure which has been successful in visual neuroscience as glimcher shows the neural evidence is quite strong for a process of learning valuations through prediction error and a simple model of neural valuation and comparison that corresponds to random utility though subject to normalization which produces menu effects there is also rapidly growing evidence for more complicated constructs in behavioral economics including prospect theory s account of risky choice hyperbolic time discounting level k models of games and social preferences corresponding to internal reward based on what happens to other agents

motivated health risk denial and preventative health care investments abstract people deny health risks invest too little in disease prevention and are highly sensitive to the price of preventative health care especially in developing countries moreover private sector r d spending on developing country diseases is almost non existent to explain these empirical observations i propose a model of motivated belief formation in which an agent s decision to engage in health risk denial balances the psychological benefits of reduced anxiety with the physical cost of underprevention i use the model to study firms price setting behavior and incentive to innovate i also show that tax funded prevention subsidies are welfare enhancing

experiencing breast cancer at the workplace we study a dynamic natural experiment involving nearly 3000 american women of age 50 64 to understand how a woman s propensity to receive an annual mammography changes over time after a co worker is diagnosed with breast cancer we find that in the year this event occurs the probability of screening drops by about 6 percentage points off a base level of 70 this impact effect is persistent for at least two years underlying mechanisms and implications for health policy are discussed

the economics of the greenhouse effect the recognition that economic activity is contributing to climatic change with attendant costs that may be of large magnitudes has set in motion a substantial research effort this paper seeks to review the contribution of economics to analysis of the greenhouse effect and to the policies and instruments suggested as means of mitigating its damage a brief overview of the causes and consequences of global warming is given and a number of energy economy forecasting models are examined as the costs of global warming depend upon the extent to which preventative and adaptive measures are undertaken the techniques available to evaluate these costs are surveyed we examine extant targets for greenhouse gas emissions reduction and explore the frameworks within which optimal policy targets can be designed the paper also considers the narrower question of minimized abatement costs and surveys the types of models used to estimate them the merits of alternative policy instruments are examined paying particular attention to the role that risk and uncertainty and the costs of monitoring and implementation of policy under conditions of imperfect information may play in the choice of instruments problems of international co operation in the development of abatement policy are examined and we consider the compensations across both nations and generations that are likely to be necessary conditions for effective action

some economics of global warming the greenhouse effect itself is simple enough to understand and is not in any real dispute what is in dispute is its magnitude over the coming century its translation into changes in climates around the globe and the impacts of those climate changes on human welfare and the natural environment these are beyond the professional understanding of any single person the sciences involved are too numerous and diverse demography economics biology and the technology sciences are needed to project emissions atmospheric chemistry oceanography biology and meteorology are needed to translate emissions into climates biology agronomy health sciences economics sociology and glaciology are needed to identify and assess impacts on human societies and natural ecosystems and those are not all there are expert judgments on large pieces of the subject but no single person clothed in this panoply of disciplines has shown up or is likely to this article makes an attempt to forecast the economic and social consequences of global warming due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases and attempting to prevent it

stabilization of emissions of co 2 a computable general equilibrium assessment a multisector computable general equilibrium model is used to study economic development perspectives in norway if carbon dioxide emissions were stabilized the effects discussed include impacts on main macroeconomic indicators and economic growth sectoral allocation of production and effects on the market for energy the impact of pollutants other than carbon dioxide on emissions is assessed along with the related impact on noneconomic welfare the results indicate that carbon dioxide emissions might be stabilized in norway without dramatically reducing economic growth sectoral allocation effects are much larger a substantial reduction in emissions to air other than carbon dioxide is found yielding considerable gains in noneconomic welfare copyright 1992 by the editors of the scandinavian journal of economics

uncertainty learning and international environmental policy coordination in this paper we construct a simple model of global warming which captures a number of key features of the global warming problem i environmental damages are related to the stock of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere ii the global commons nature of the problem means that these are strategic interactions between the emissions policies of the governments of individual nation states iii there is uncertainty about the extent of the future damages that will be incurred by each country from any given level of concentration of greenhouse gases but there is the possibility that at a future date better information about the true extent of environmental damages may become available an important aspect of the problem is the extent to which damages in different countries may be correlated in the first part of the paper we consider a simple model with two symmetric countries and show that the value of perfect information is an increasing function of the correlation between damages in the two countries in both the cooperative and non cooperative equilibria however while the value of perfect information is always non negative in the cooperative equilibrium in the non cooperative equilibrium there is a critical value of the correlation coefficient below which the value of perfect information will be negative in the second part of the paper we construct an empirical model of global warming distinguishing between oecd and non oecd countries and show that in the non cooperative equilibrium the value of perfect information for oecd countries is negative when the correlation coefficient between environmental damages for oecd and non oecd countries is negative the implications of these results for international agreements are discussed

disappointment in decision making under uncertainty decision analysis requires that two equally desirable consequences should have the same utility and vice versa most analyses of financial decision making presume that two consequences with the same dollar outcome will be equally preferred however winning the top prize of 10 000 in a lottery may leave one much happier than receiving 10 000 as the lowest prize in a lottery this paper explores the implications of disappointment a psychological reaction caused by comparing the actual outcome of a lottery to one s prior expectations for decision making under uncertainty explicit recognition that decision makers may be paying a premium to avoid potential disappointment provides an interpretation for some known behavioral paradoxes and suggests that decision makers may be sensitive to the manner in which a lottery is resolved the concept of disappointment is integrated into utility theory in a prescriptive model

a cost benefit analysis of slowing climate change there are many conflicting views regarding the true dimensions of the climate change problem often these viewpoints are based on different estimates of key parameters with little indication as to why parameter estimates vary so much and which ones might be the more reliable the prospects for a co ordinated strategy to tackle climate change appear dim little consensus has emerged for example regarding the costs of abating carbon emissions some take the view that considerable improvements in energy efficiency are available at negative cost by setting minimum efficiency standards for vehicles and domestic appliances e g mills et al 1991 others regard the macroeconomic costs of even small reductions in carbon emissions as substantial manne and richels 1993 in the judgement of other researchers a proportion of carbon emissions arise purely as a result of institutional failings either at a regional level in the subsidies paid to fossil fuel energy producers in the erroneous belief that this promotes economic growth shah and larsen 1994 in failure to deal with air pollution glomsrod et al 1992 and vehicle congestion in urban areas hughes 1994 or at a global level in failing to make appropriate transfers to those countries whose forests contain rich biodiversity which we would wish to preserve pearce 1991

rational irrationality some economics of self management abstract the paper first reviews some of the main challenges posed to our received economic paradigm by a variety of behaviors documented by psychologists and discusses possible responses to this challenge it then describes a specific attempt at unifying a number of themes in social psychology using a parsimonious modeling of human behavior

regulation with anticipated learning about environmental damages a regulator anticipates learning about the relation between environmental stocks and economic damages for a model with linear quadratic abatement costs and environmental damages and a general learning process we show analytically that anticipated learning decreases the optimal level of abatement at a given information set if learning causes the regulator to eventually decide that damages are higher than previously thought learning eventually increases abatement learning also favors the use of taxes rather than quotas using a model that is calibrated to describe the problem of global warming we show numerically that anticipated learning causes a significant reduction in first period abatement and a small increase in the preference for taxes rather than quotas even if the regulator s initial priors about environmental damages are much too optimistic he is able to learn quickly enough to keep the expected stock trajectory near the optimal trajectory

climate change mitigation and adaptation with uncertainty and learning one of the major issues in climate change policy is how to deal with the considerable uncertainty that surrounds many of the elements some of these uncertainties will be resolved through the process of further research this process of learning raises a crucial timing question should society delay taking action in anticipation of obtaining better information or should it accelerate action because we might learn that climate change is much more serious than expected much of the analysis to date has focussed on the case where the actions available to society are just the mitigation of emissions and where there is little or no role for learning we extend the analysis to allow for both mitigation and adaptation we show that including adaptation weakens the effect of the irreversibility constraint and so for this model makes it more likely that the prospect of future learning should lead to less action now to deal with climate change we review the empirical literature on climate change policy with uncertainty learning and irreversibility and show that to date the effects on current policy are rather small though this may reflect the particular choice of models employed

equitable cost benefit analysis of climate change greenhouse gas emissions and vulnerability to climate change show a strong negative correlation this is the moral issue at the heart of the climate problem however little attention has been paid to this in the literature see banuri et al 1996 for an overview the literature on equity issues in climate change is largely confined to the distribution of emissions reduction targets this literature takes the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions for granted and takes a parametric approach to the required reductions on the other hand the literature that tries to derive how much emissions abatement is desirable largely ducks the equity issue this paper is an attempt to combine the two problems

what is the price of prevention new evidence from a field experiment how does increasing access to treatment affect the demand for preventive testing in this paper we present results from a field experiment in nigeria in which we offered cervical cancer screening to women at randomly chosen prices to test our hypothesis we also offered women a lottery where the payoff was a subsidy towards the cost of cervical cancer treatment conditional upon a diagnosis of cervical cancer we find that women randomly selected to receive the conditional cancer treatment subsidy were about 4 percentage points more likely to take up screening than those in the control group we also show that reducing the price of screening by 10 cents increased take up by about 1 percentage point these results offer compelling evidence that the optimal set of subsidies to increase take up of preventive testing in developing countries must include subsidies towards treatment costs in addition to price subsidies

equitable cost benefit analysis of climate change policies the literature of welfare maximising greenhouse gas emission reduction strategies pays remarkably little attention to equity this paper introduces three ways to consider efficiency and equity simultaneously the first method inspired by kant and rawls maximises net present welfare without international cooperation as if all regions share the fate of the region affected worst by climate change optimal emission abatement varies greatly depending on the spatial and temporal resolution that is the grid at which maximum impact is defined the second method is inspired by varian s no envy emissions are reduced so as to equalise total costs and benefits of climate change over all countries of the world and over all time periods emission reductions are substantial this method approximately preserves the inequities that would occur in a world without climate change the third method uses non linear aggregations of welfare the utilitarian default is linear in a cooperative setting this method cannot distinguish between sources of inequity the higher the aversion to inequity the higher optimal greenhouse gas emission reduction

toward choice theoretic foundations for behavioral welfare economics interest in behavioral economics has grown in recent years stimulated largely by accumulating evidence that the standard model of consumer decision making provides an inadequate positive description of human behavior behavioral models are increasingly finding their way into policy evaluation which inevitably involves welfare analysis no consensus concerning the appropriate standards and criteria for behavioral welfare analysis has emerged yet this paper summarizes our effort to develop a unified framework for behavioral welfare economics for a detailed discussion see bernheim and rangel 2007 one that can be viewed as a natural extension of standard welfare economics standard welfare analysis is based on choice not on utility or preferences in its simplest form it instructs the planner to respect the choices an individual would make for himself the guiding normative principle is an extension of the libertarian deference to freedom of choice which takes the view that it is better to give a person the thing he would choose for himself rather than something that someone else would choose for him we show that it is possible to extend the standard choice theoretic approach to welfare analysis to situations where individuals make inconsistent choices which are prevalent in behavioral economics

affective decision making a theory of optimism bias abstract optimism bias is inconsistent with the independence of decision weights and payoffs found in models of choice under risk and uncertainty such as expected utility theory subjective expected utility and prospect theory we therefore propose an alternative model of risky and uncertain choice where decision weights affective or perceived risk are endogenous affective decision making adm is a strategic model of choice under risk and uncertainty where we posit two cognitive processes the rational and the emotional process the two processes interact in a simultaneous move intrapersonal potential game and observed choice is the result of a pure strategy nash equilibrium in this game we show that regular adm potential games have an odd number of locally unique pure strategy nash equilibria and demonstrate this finding for affective decision making in insurance markets we prove that adm potential games are refutable by axiomatizing the adm potential maximizers

willingness to pay for ancillary benefits of climate change mitigation assessing the willingness to pay wtp of the general public for climate change mitigation programmes enables governments to understand how much taxpayers are willing to support the implementation of such programs this paper contributes to the literature on the wtp for climate change mitigation programmes by investigating in addition to global benefits the ancillary benefits of climate change mitigation it does so by considering local and personal benefits arising from climate change policies the contingent valuation method is used to elicit the wtp for ancillary and global benefits of climate mitigation policies in the basque country spain results show that wtp estimates are 53 73 higher when ancillary benefits are considered

on portfolio choice with savoring and disappointment we revisit the model proposed by gollier and muermann gollier c muermann a 2010 optimal choice and beliefs with ex ante savoring and ex post disappointment management sci 568 1272 1284 hereafter gm in the gm model for a given lottery agents form anticipated expected payoffs and the set of possible anticipations is assumed to be exogenously fixed we propose sets of possible anticipations that are endogenously determined this permits us to compare and evaluate in a consistent manner lotteries with different supports and to revisit the portfolio choice problem we obtain new conclusions and interesting insights our extended model can rationalize a variety of empirically observed puzzles such as a positive demand for assets with negative expected returns preference for skewed returns and underdiversification of portfolios this paper was accepted by rakesh sarin decision analysis

heterogeneity in risky choice behaviour in a broad population we analyse risk preferences using an experiment with real incentives in a representative sample of 1 422 dutch respondents our econometric model incorporates four structural parameters that vary with observed and unobserved characteristics utility curvature loss aversion preferences towards the timing of uncertainty resolution and the propensity to choose randomly rather than on the basis of preferences we find that all four parameters contribute to explaining choice behaviour the structural parameters are significantly associated with socio economic variables but it is essential to incorporate unobserved heterogeneity in each of them to match the rich variety of choice patterns in the data

optimal beliefs in the long run an overlapping generations perspective abstract people have the natural tendency to be optimistic and believe that good outcomes in the future are more likely but also want to avoid overestimation that could result in bad decision making brunnermeier brunnermeier and parker 2005 and brunnermeier et al 2007 established an optimal beliefs framework that balances these two incentives this paper follows and extends the optimal beliefs framework to consider optimal beliefs in the long run in an overlapping generations sense assuming no short selling results show that in almost all cases there does not exist a stable and interior long term optimal belief

disappointment and dynamic consistency in choice under uncertainty the central proposition of disappointment theory is that an individual forms expectations about uncertain prospects and that if the actual consequence turns out to be worse than or better than that expectation the individual experiences a sensation of disappointment or elation generating a decrement or increment of utility which modifies the basic utility derived from the consequence by incorporating a simple disappointment elation function into a model of individual choice many observed violations of conventional expected utility axioms including violations of savage s sure thing principle and the isolation effect can be predicted and defended as rational and dynamically consistent behaviour

the meerkat effect personality and market returns affect investors portfolio monitoring behaviour karlsson loewenstein and seppi 2009 found that following market downswings investors are less likely to login to monitor their retirement portfolios they concluded that rather like apocryphal ostriches sticking their heads in the sand investors avoid unpleasant information by reducing portfolio monitoring in response to news of negative market movement we apply generalised non linear mixed effects models to test for this selective information monitoring at an individual level in a new sample of active online investors we see different behaviour in this new sample we find that investors increase their portfolio monitoring following both positive and daily negative market returns behaving more like hyper vigilant meerkats than head in the sand ostriches this pattern persists for logins not resulting in trades and weekend logins when markets are closed moreover an investor personality trait neuroticism moderates the pattern of portfolio monitoring suggesting that market driven variation in portfolio monitoring is attributable to psychological factors

a theory of haste abstract we consider a hyperbolic discounting agent at each period he can undertake an irreversible consumption decision that yields an uncertain current benefit and a delayed cost if he decides to defer consumption for the future some information exogenously flows in we show that the agent may rationally decide to consume with negative expected net present value npv only to prevent himself from consuming in the future which could be profitable from a future perspective but highly detrimental from the current viewpoint comparative statics reveal that the value of information is u shaped

strategic ignorance and the robustness of social preferences participants in dictator games frequently avoid learning whether their choice to maximize their own earnings will help or hurt the recipient and then choose selfishly exploiting the moral wiggle room provided by their ignorance however this is found in an environment in which the dictator must actively learn the true payoffs so inaction means ignorance does this effect persist when one must actively choose either to be ignorant or to be informed or when one must actively choose to remain ignorant in fact whereas 45 of dictators remain ignorant when one must click to become informed this drops to 25 when one must click in either case and to 3 when one must click to remain ignorant although the exploitation of moral wiggle room is not merely an artifact it is much like social behavior itself subject to environmental and psychological factors that may reinforce or undermine its impact data as supplemental material are available at http dx doi org 10 1287 mnsc 2014 1989 this paper was accepted by uri gneezy behavioral economics

the supply of information by a concerned expert how much information should a policy maker pass on to a currently ill informed citizen in this paper we address this classic question of crawford and sobel 1983 in a setting in which beliefs impact utility as in kreps and porteus 1978 we show that this simple amendment has far reaching implications in particular our question cannot be answered using a utility function with standard revealed preference foundations revealed preference cannot tell us whether in a particular state s a decision maker prefers to believe incorrectly that the state is t or to know the truth to solve the model we go beyond the classical model in two respects relying on the psychological expected utility model of caplin and leahy 2001 to capture preferences and the psychological game model of geanakoplos pearce and stacchetti 1989 to capture strategic interactions

when information dominates comparison abstract we propose a micro econometric evaluation of the relation between life satisfaction and income distribution using a balanced panel survey of the russian population russian longitudinal monitoring survey rlms running from 1994 to 2000 covering 4685 individuals we show that in the context of the very volatile russian environment hirschman s q j econ 87 1973 544 tunnel effect conjecture seems to be confirmed variables reflecting income distribution do not influence satisfaction through social comparisons individuals rather seem to use their informational content in order to form their expectations the reference group s income thereby exerts a positive influence on individual satisfaction which contrasts with other studies on the subject inequality indices do not affect individual welfare

a theory of anticipated utility abstract a new theory of cardinal utility with an associated set of axioms is presented it is a generalization of the von neumann morgenstern expected utility theory which permits the analysis of phenomena associated with the distortion of subjective probability

reference dependent consumption plans we develop a rational dynamic model in which people are loss averse over changes in beliefs about present and future consumption because changes in wealth are news about future consumption preferences over money are reference dependent if news resonates more when about imminent consump tion than when about future consumption a decision maker might to generate pleasant surprises overconsume early relative to the optimal committed plan increase immediate consumption following surprise wealth increases and delay decreasing consumption following surprise losses since higher wealth mitigates the effect of bad news people exhibit an unambiguous first order precautionary savings motive

cooperation on climate change mitigation abstract we analyze conditions under which it is possible to achieve efficient mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions with a self enforcing international agreement in which all countries find it in their self interest to abide by the agreement we model the choice of emissions by countries as a dynamic game we use a two part punishment scheme for deviations from an agreement that is renegotiation proof and show when this scheme supports the efficient outcome as a subgame perfect equilibrium using numerical examples we show that an efficient subgame perfect equilibrium exists for a range of reasonable parameter values the existence of such equilibrium may be non monotonic in the discount rate and the ratio of slope of marginal abatement cost and marginal damages

international trade in carbon emission rights and basic materials general equilibrium calculations for 2020 restrictions on co emissions affect international trade and the pattern of comparative advantage this paper based on calculations with a static general equilibrium model suggests that international trade in carbon rights is a substitute for trade in energy intensive goods and thus international trading in carbon rights reduces sectoral effects of emission reductions in our model we surprisingly find that free riding by non signatory countries may not render unilateral action ineffective if the oecd unilaterally cuts global emissions by 5 per cent from 1990 levels by the year 2020 emissions by non oecd regions increase but offset less than 15 per cent of this cutback moreover carbon taxes depress international oil prices and create incentives for increased tradc in natural gas

should we beware of the precautionary principle precautionary principle the economic perspective how should society deal with risks when there is scientific uncertainty about the size of these risks there has been much recent discussion of the precautionary principle which states that lack of full scientific knowledge should not be used as a reason to postpone cost effective preventive measures we show in this paper that the precautionary principle contradicts one important intuition about the right way to act in the face of risk namely the principle of looking before you leap when we expect to learn more about the future the effectiveness of our preventive measures will be greater if we learn before we act however a number of other ways of taking uncertainty into account are consistent with a reasonable interpretation of the precautionary principle first postponing preventive measures may increase our vulnerability to damage which induces a precautionary motive for risk prevention similar to the precautionary savings motive secondly stronger preventive actions often yield more flexibility for the future so that acting early has an option value thirdly when better information comes from a process of learning by doing the risk associated with early events is amplified by the information they yield about the future this plays a role analogous to that of an increase in risk aversion making us more cautious fourthly because imperfect knowledge of the risk makes it difficult to insure the social cost of risk should include a risk premium finally uncertainty about the economic environment enjoyed by future generations should be taken into account this raises the benefit of acting early to prevent long term risks if the precautionary principle sometimes gives good and sometimes gives bad advice there is no escape from the need to undertake a careful cost benefit analysis we show that standard cost benefit analysis can be refined to take account of scientific uncertainty in ways that balance the precautionary principle against the benefits of waiting to learn before we act furthermore it is important that they be used to do so for instinct is an unreliable guide in such circumstances abandoning cost benefit analysis in favour of simple maxims can result in some seriously misleading conclusions christian gollier

psychological expected utility theory and anticipatory feelings we extend expected utility theory to situations in which agents experience feelings of anticipation prior to the resolution of uncertainty we show how these anticipatory feelings may result in time inconsistency we provide an example from portfolio theory to illustrate the potential impact of anticipation on asset prices

optimal dynamic tax evasion abstract we study optimal dynamic tax evasion in the framework proposed by lin and yang 2001 and dzhumashev and gahramanov 2011 with some modifications a more flexible utility function a more realistic audit process and a penalty function which can be defined both on evaded income and evaded taxes in the former case the elasticity between tax rate and tax evasion is positive unless the subsistence consumption level is higher than a given threshold in the latter case the relationship is usually negative but the value of elasticity depends on the form of absolute risk aversion in particular we show that for increasing relative risk aversion for a tax rate higher than 50 the elasticity may even become positive us data are consistent with irra preferences

taxes and quotas for a stock pollutant with multiplicative uncertainty we compare taxes and quotas when firms and the regulator have asymmetric information about the slope of firms abatement costs damages are caused by a stock pollutant we calibrate the model using cost and damage estimates of greenhouse gasses taxes dominate quotas as with additive uncertainty this model with multiplicative uncertainty allows us to compare expected stock levels under the two policies and to investigate the importance of stock size and the magnitude of uncertainty on the policy ranking

endogenous time horizon and behavioral poverty trap theory and evidence from mozambique abstract this paper provides a model where a long term planning horizon improves economic decisions but also increases the salience of anticipated future utility hence a gloomy future induces the agent to shorten her time horizon in order to reduce distress caused by the anticipation of poverty at the cost of worsening her realized future consumption resulting in a behavioral poverty trap where poverty and shortsightedness reinforce each other the paper also provides primary empirical evidence of the endogenous determination of time horizon and of the existence of a behavioral poverty trap using a randomized controlled trial in mozambique that provided agro input subsidies and a matched savings program i show that improvement in economic prospects resulted in a significant increase in the planning horizon of the poor beneficiaries moreover the increase in horizon significantly predicts asset accumulation of beneficiaries during the two years following the intervention

optimal choice and beliefs with ex ante savoring and ex post disappointment we propose a new decision criterion under risk in which individuals extract both utility from anticipatory feelings ex ante and disutility from disappointment ex post the decision maker chooses his degree of optimism given that more optimism raises both the utility of ex ante feelings and the risk of disappointment ex post we characterize the optimal beliefs and the preferences under risk generated by this mental process and apply this criterion to a simple portfolio choice insurance problem we show that these preferences are compatible with first degree and second degree stochastic dominance and yield a preference for early resolution of uncertainty furthermore they are consistent with observed violations of the independence axiom such as the preference reversal in the allais paradox and predict that the decision maker takes on less risk compared to an expected utility maximizer our decision criterion can thus help explain the equity premium puzzle and the preference for low deductibles in insurance contracts

intertemporal incentives under loss aversion this paper studies the intertemporal allocation of incentives in a repeated moral hazard model with reference dependent preferences as in k oszegi and rabin 2009 besides consumption utility the agent experiences utility from the change in his beliefs about present and future eort and income when eort plans are rational the prospect of being disappointed by the outcome realization equals that of being pleasantly surprised and hence the loss averse agent is on net hurt by news in contrast to the prediction with classical preferences but consistent with real world contracts if consumption utility is not too concave and news about present income carries suciently larger weight in utility than news about future income a contract setting a current

targets for global climate policy an overview a survey of the economic impact of climate change and the marginal damage costs shows that carbon dioxide emissions are a negative externality the estimated pigou tax and its growth rate are too low to justify the climate policy targets set by political leaders a lower discount rate or greater concern for the global distribution of income would justify more stringent climate policy but would imply an overhaul of other public policies catastrophic risk justifies more stringent climate policy but only to a limited extent

self confidence and personal motivation the maintenance and enhancement of self esteem has always been identified as a fundamental human impulse philosophers writers educators and of course psychologists have all emphasized the crucial role played by self image in motivation affect and social interactions the aim of this chapter is to bring these concerns into the realm of economic analysis and show that this has important implications for how agents process information and make decisions conversely the tools of economic modelling can help shed light on a number of apparently irrational behaviours documented by psychologists

specifications of social welfare in economic studies of climate policy overview of criteria and related policy insights an important assumption in economic studies of climate policy is the social welfare function this paper shows that applying distinct decision or social welfare criteria can result in different optimal policies of climate control notably if climate change impacts are uncertain first decision criteria in current climate economic studies are reviewed next the most important alternatives are discussed including their mathematical formalization and incorporation in economy climate models most of these alternative criteria suggest more stringent climate policies to be optimal than the standard discounted utilitarianism approach however several important welfare criteria have not or hardly seen any application in the economic analysis of climate policy we conclude that there is clear need for systematic research on this theme for which the current review provides a solid basis

anticipation and the valuation of delayed consumption this paper presents a model of intertemporal choice that incorporates savoring and dread i e utility from anticipat ion of delayed consumption the model explains why an individual with positive time preference may delay desirable outcomes or get unpleas ant outcomes over with quickly contrary to the prediction of convent ional formulations of intertemporal choice implications of savoring and dread for savings behavior empirical estimation of discount rate s and public policy efforts to combat myopic behavior are explored the model provides an explanation for common violations of the indepe ndence axiom as applied to intertemporal choice copyright 1987 by royal economic society

psychological pressure in competitive environments evidence from a randomized natural experiment much like cognitive abilities emotional skills can have major eects on performance and economic outcomes this paper studies the behavior of professional subjects involved in a dynamic competition in their own natural environment the setting is a penalty shoot out in soccer where two teams compete in a tournament framework taking turns in a sequence of ve penalty kicks each as the kicking order is determined by the random outcome of a coin ip the treatment and control

the market for sweepstakes this paper studies the market for monopolistically supplied sweepstakes we derive equilibrium demands for fixed prize and variable prize sweepstakes and determine the profit maximizing prize level and pay out ratio respectively it can be profitable to offer each type of sweepstake when there is a large enough number of weighted utility consumers who have constant absolute risk attitudes are strictly averse to small as well as symmetric risks and display longshot preference behaviour moreover for the variable prize sweepstake the supplier will generally find it profitable to combine sweepstakes targeting two smaller populations and offer a single sweepstake to the combined population this implication is corroborated by the recent spate of mergers of smaller state lotteries into larger ones

less is more the influence of aspirations and priming on well being abstract if resource consumption is to be reduced through economic de growth individuals in industrialized countries may have to accept a reduction in their consumption levels in democratic societies implementing this process requires the consent of a majority of the population however as long as people have high reference levels of consumption lower consumption will induce feelings of loss and hence evoke resistance this paper summarizes recent experimental evidence on some of the factors that determine the utility costs involved in decreasing consumption the results suggest that the acceptance of economic de growth would be facilitated if people s material aspirations were moderated and the extent to which material achievements are emphasized in our daily environment were reduced an analysis of the financial and economic crisis that developed during 2008 suggests that it will not contribute to either of these points rather by increasing the public s focus on the economic sphere even beyond pre crisis levels it may lead to a further decrease in the acceptance of de growth policies in the population

anticipation of future consumption a monetary perspective we adapt the monetary model sidrauski 1967 to study the hypothesis of anticipation of future consumption we assume that anticipation of future consumption affects an agent s instantaneous utility and that all effects of future consumption on current well being are captured by the stock of future consumption monetary policy effectiveness is thereby reduced and a zero nominal lower interest rate and thus the friedman rule is destabilizing given this we can derive a just stable equilibrium nominal interest rate with matching definitions for inflation and monetary growth we demonstrate that these implied lower bounds match their historical analogues well

genetic testing in competitive insurance markets with repulsion from chance a welfare analysis a central theme in the international debate on genetic testing concerns the extent to which insurance companies should be allowed to use genetic information when offering insurance contracts we provide a welfare analysis of this issue within a model of an insurance market with asymmetric information having the following crucial feature in addition to a state contingent consumption profile a person s well being depends on her attitude towards resolution of future health uncertainty and this attitude varies across the population we present stylized facts that motivate this approach in the formal analysis we find that both tested high risks and untested individuals are equally well off whether or not test results can be used by insurers individuals who test for being low risks on the other hand are made worse off by not being able to verify this to insurers this implies that in terms of welfare a regulatory regime in which the use of genetic information by insurers is allowed is better than one in which it is not allowed

guilt in games a clear conscience is a good pillow why does this old proverb contain an insight the emotion of guilt holds a key psychologists report that the prototypical cause of guilt would be the infliction of harm loss or distress on a relationship partner roy baumeister arlene m stillwell and todd f heatherton 1994 245 june price tangney 1995 moreover guilt is unpleasant and may affect behavior to render the associated pangs counterfactual baumeister stillwell and heatherton state if people feel guilt for hurting their partners and for failing to live up to their expectations they will alter their behavior to avoid guilt in ways that seem likely to maintain and strengthen the relationship avoided guilt is the down of the sound sleeper s bolster how can guilt be modeled how are human interaction and economic outcomes influenced we offer a formal approach for providing answers start with an extensive game form which associates a monetary outcome with each end node say that player i lets player j down if as a result of i s choice of strategy j gets a lower monetary payoff than j expected to get before play started player i s guilt may depend on how much he lets j down player i s guilt may also depend on how much j believes i believes he lets j down we develop techniques to analyze equilibria when players are motivated in part by a desire to avoid guilt the intellectual home for our exercise is what has been called psychological game theory this framework originally developed by john geanakoplos david pearce and ennio stacchetti 1989 and recently extended by battigalli and dufwenberg 2005 henceforth b d allows players utilities to depend on beliefs about choices states of nature

the climate change learning curve abstract the purpose of this paper is to confront economic models of climate change with the reality that limited information exists with which to form expectations about the evolution of the climate a key element in the tension between those who believe we should impose aggressive climate change mitigation policies and those who do not is the question of if we are merely in a long period of shock induced above average temperatures or if observed increases in temperature are a result of carbon emissions this paper characterizes learning dynamics resulting from the use of observations of temperature to update beliefs about two key characteristics of global climate the persistence of natural trends and the sensitivity of temperature to atmospheric carbon levels this paper shows that contrary to predictions in the literature that uncertainty may be resolved very quickly the time to learn the true processes may be in the order of thousands of years further this paper shows the effects of uncertainty on the likelihood that observations from the statistical record lead to important estimate and policy errors

intrinsic preference for information abstract suppose agents value information not only to make contingent plans but also intrinsically how are such attitudes toward information related to attitudes toward risk we generalize the kreps porteus recursive expected utility model dropping both recursivity and expected utility there is a geometric analogy between risk and information we characterize intrinsic information loving in general by a substitution property analogous to multivariate risk loving and for smooth preferences by the convexity of gateaux derivatives even with recursivity preference for information does not imply expected utility we provide an example we examine connections between information loving and risk aversion for early and late resolving risks journal of economic literatureclassification numbers d80 d81

destruction and distress using a quasi experiment to show the effects of the september 11 attacks on mental well being in the united kingdom using a longitudinal household panel dataset in the uk where a significant proportion of the interviews are conducted in september each year we are able to show that the attacks of september 11 resulted in lower levels of subjective well being for those interviewed after that date in 2001 compared with those interviewed before it this quasi experiment provides one of the first examples of the impact of a terrorist attack in one country on well being in another country

endogenous beliefs in models of politics in the standard rational choice model actors have exogenously given beliefs that perfectly match objective probabilities as such these beliefs cannot be optimistic or motivated by preferences even though substantial empirical evidence indicates that human beliefs routinely satisfy neither of these criteria i present a tractable endogenous beliefs model and apply it to three different political environments from across the subfields of political science in the model players form beliefs that maximize a utility function that represents preferences over outcomes and the anticipatory experience of uncertainty applications include voter turnout taxation and collective choice and crisis bargaining the model captures the empirical evidence about belief formation much better than the standard model moreover these applications show how rigidly insisting on the standard rational choice model rejects otherwise reasonable explanations by fiat precisely because of its implausible assumptions about beliefs

goal setting and self control abstract this paper addresses the role of non binding goals to attenuate time inconsistency present biased agents have linear reference dependent preferences and endogenously set a goal that is the reference point they face an infinite horizon optimal stopping problem in continuous time when there is sufficient commitment to expectation based goals goal setting attenuates the present biased agent s tendency to stop too early and may even lead an agent to wait longer than the first best in particular reference dependence is strictly worse for a time consistent agent notably none of the effects of goal setting require loss aversion

the effect of a delay between choice and consumption on consumption enjoyment a consumer choosing a product must often wait before consuming it in this article we consider the consequences of waiting on consumption enjoyment we propose that the effect of a delay on consumption enjoyment depends on both the negative utility of the wait itself and on the positive utility of anticipating a pleasant consumption experience these factors exert different degrees of influence depending on characteristics of the decision task the results of three studies suggest that a delay increases consumption enjoyment for pleasurable products when actual consumption occurs but decreases enjoyment for imagined consumption furthermore the vividness of the awaited product moderates these effects

smooth quantile based modeling of brand sales price and promotional effects from retail scanner panels semiparametric quantile regression is employed to flexibly estimate sales response for frequently purchased consumer goods using retail store level data we compare the performance of models with and without monotonic smoothing for fit and prediction accuracy we find that a flexible models with monotonicity constraints imposed on price effects dominate both in sample and out of sample comparisons while being robust even at the boundaries of the price distribution when data is sparse b quantile based confidence intervals are much more accurate compared to least squares based intervals c specifications reflecting that managers may not have exact knowledge about future competitive pricing perform extremely well

energy efficiency fallacies revisited abstract a number of governments including that of the uk subscribe to the belief that a national program devoted to raising energy efficiency throughout the economy provides a costless indeed profitable route to meeting international environmental obligations this is a seductive policy it constitutes the proverbial free lunch not only avoiding politically unpopular measures like outlawing taxing or rationing offending fuels or expanding non carboniferous sources of energy like nuclear power but doing so with economic benefit the author of this contribution came to doubt the validity of this solution when it was offered as a way of mitigating the effect of the opec price hikes of the 1970 maintaining that economically justified improvement in energy efficiency led to higher levels of energy consumption at the economy wide level than in the absence of any efficiency response more fundamentally he argues that there is no case for preferentially singling out energy from among all the resources available to us for efficiency maximization the least damaging policy is to determine targets enact the restrictive measures needed to curb consumption and then leave it to consumers intermediate and final to reallocate all the resources available to them to best effect subject to the new enacted constraints and any others they might be experiencing there is no reason to suppose that it is right for all the economic adjustment following a new resource constraint to take the form of improvements in the productivity of that resource alone as many others have argued any action to impose resource constraint entails an inevitable economic cost in the shape of a reduction in production and consumption possibilities there would be no free lunch in the last few years debate about the validity of these contentions has blossomed especially under the influence of writers on the western side of the atlantic in this contribution the author outlines the original arguments for questioning whether raised efficiency leads to lower consumption reports more recent developments and offers some insights as food for further thought