explaining the deteriorating entry earnings of canada s immigrant cohorts 1966 2000 abstract using the 1981 1986 1991 1996 and 2001 canadian censuses we explore causes of the deterioration in entry earnings of successive cohorts of immigrant men and women roughly one third of the deterioration is explained by compositional shifts in language ability and region of birth we find no evidence of a decline in the returns to foreign education for either immigrant men or immigrant women but a definite deterioration in the returns to foreign labour market experience most strongly among men from non traditional source countries we can explain roughly two thirds of the male and one half of the female deterioration without any reference to entry labour market conditions when we also account for entry conditions our results suggest canada s immigrants of the late 1990s would otherwise have enjoyed entry earnings equal to or higher than their counterparts of the 1960s

the long term effects of forcible assimilation policy the case of indian boarding schools for decades in north america and australia indigenous children were forcibly removed from their homes and placed in boarding schools these schools had the stated goal of cultural assimilation and are perceived as educational failures i offer the first causal evidence on the long run effects of these schools i identify these effects using the interaction of changes in canadian national policy and regional variation in the power of the catholic church i find that the average boarding school had substantial effects on both cultural and economic assimilation however i find suggestive evidence this is not true for highly abusive schools

checkerboards and coase the effect of property institutions on efficiency in housing markets abstract in the late 1800s palm springs california was evenly divided into 1 mile square blocks like a checkerboard and property rights were assigned in alternating blocks to the agua caliente tribe and a non indian landowner by the u s federal government the quasi experimental nature of land assignment holds land quality constant across the two types of landowners sales mortgaging and leasing restrictions on the agua caliente reservation land created large transaction costs to development on those lands consequently there was very little housing investment the non indian blocks which were extensively developed provide a benchmark for efficient outcomes for the agua caliente lands once the restrictions on agua caliente lands were relaxed in 1959 the number of homes and real estate values converged to those of non indian owned lands as predicted by the coase theorem

an economic analysis of acting white this paper formalizes a widely discussed peer eect entitled acting white acting white is modeled as a two audience signaling quandary signals that induce high wages can be signals that induce peer group rejection without peer eects equilibria involve all ability types choosing dierent levels of education acting white alters the equilibrium dramatically the possibly empty set of lowest ability individuals and the set of highest ability individuals continue to reveal their type through investments in education ability types in the middle interval pool on a common education level only those in the lower intervals are accepted by the group the model s predictions t many stylized facts in the anthropology and sociology literatures regarding social interactions among minority group members

who benefits from local job growth migrants or the original residents bartik t j 1993 who benefits from local job growth migrants or the original residents reg studies 27 297 311 this paper surveys research on whether the new jobs resulting from growth in a local economy e g a metropolitan area go to inmigrants or the original local residents the empirical evidence suggests that around one quarter of the new jobs from local growth increases the labour force participation rates of local residents in the long run these long run effects may occur because local growth provides residents with valuable employment experience research also suggests that minorities benefit most from growth and that higher wage industries provide greater employment benefits for local residents bartik t j 1993 qui est ce qui beneficie de la croissance d emploi locale les migrants ou la population autochtone reg studies 27 297 311 cet article etudie la recherche effectuee dans le but d evaluer si les nouveaux emplois dus a la croissance d une economic locale par exemple une

evaluating interval forecasts a complete theory for evaluating interval forecasts has not been worked out to date most of the literature implicitly assumes homoskedastic errors even when this is clearly violated and proceed by merely testing for correct unconditional coverage consequently i set out to build a consistent framework for conditional interval forecast evaluation which is crucial when higher order moment dynamics are present the new methodology is demonstrated in an application to the exchange rate forecasting procedures advocated in risk management

value at risk versus expected shortfall a practical perspective value at risk var has become a standard risk measure for financial risk management however many authors claim that there are several conceptual problems with var among these problems an important one is that var disregards any loss beyond the var level we call this problem the tail risk in this paper we illustrate how the tail risk of var can cause serious problems in certain cases cases in which expected shortfall can serve more aptly in its place we discuss two cases concentrated credit portfolio and foreign exchange rates under market stress we show that expected shortfall requires a larger sample size than var to provide the same level of accuracy 2004 elsevier b v all rights reserved

backtesting expected shortfall accounting for tail risk the basel committee on banking supervision bis has recently sanctioned expected shortfall es as the market risk measure to be used for banking regulatory purposes replacing the well known value at risk var this change is motivated by the appealing theoretical properties of es as a measure of risk and the poor properties of var in particular var fails to control for tail risk in this transition the major challenge faced by financial institutions is the unavailability of simple tools for evaluation of es forecasts i e backtesting es the main purpose of this paper is to propose such tools specifically we propose backtests for es based on cumulative violations which are the natural analogue of the commonly used backtests for var we establish the asymptotic properties of the tests and investigate their finite sample performance through some monte carlo simulations an empirical application to three major stock indexes shows that var is generally unresponsive to extreme events such as those experienced during the recent financial crisis whereas es provides a more accurate description of the risk involved this paper was accepted by neng wang finance

assimilation to a welfare state labor market performance and use of social benefits by immigrants to finland this paper documents the economic performance of immigrants in a country characterized by an extensive welfare state and a short immigration history upon arrival immigrants to finland have substantially lower employment rates than comparable natives while they experience rapid employment growth only men from oecd countries catch up with natives despite the persisting employment and earnings differences between non oecd immigrants and natives the differences in income transfers disappear in roughly 20 years the immigrant native employment gaps are larger in finland than in australia canada or the us

backtesting marginal expected shortfall and related systemic risk measures this paper proposes an original approach for backtesting systemic risk measures this backtesting approach makes it possible to assess the systemic risk measure forecasts used to identify the finan

tail risk of electricity futures abstract this paper compares the in sample and out of sample performance of several models for computing the tail risk of one month and one year electricity futures contracts traded in the nordpool french german and spanish markets in 2008 2017 as measures of tail risk we use the one day ahead value at risk var and the expected shortfall es with var the ar 1 garch 1 1 model with student t distribution is the best performing specification with 88 cases in which the fisher test accepts the model with a success rate of 94 in the left tail and of 81 in the right tail the model passes the test of model adequacy in the 100 of the cases in the nordpool and german markets but only in the 88 and 63 of the cases in the spanish and french markets with es this model passes the test of model adequacy in 100 of cases in all markets historical simulation and quantile regression based approaches misestimate tail risks the right hand tail of the returns is more difficult to model than the left hand tail and therefore financial regulators and the administrators of futures markets should take these results into account when setting additional regulatory capital requirements and margin account regulations to short positions

the disposition effect in farmers selling behavior an experimental investigation the identification of the optimal selling time of stored goods is among the most essential economic decisions on a farm beyond monetary aspects behavioral factors influence farmers selling decisions in financial economics the disposition effect is a commonly observed phenomenon it describes the fact that investors hold losing stocks too long while they sell stocks that gained in value too early in the context of agriculture this behavioral bias has not been analyzed thoroughly yet to close this research gap we conducted an incentivized online experiment with 112 farmers from germany the experimental design was based on a well proven experiment from financial economics and adapted to an agricultural decision context where stored goods must be sold farmers were provided information on the uncertain price developments in addition lotteries were conducted to elicit farmers risk attitude probability weighting and loss aversion results indicate that there is a robust disposition effect in farmers selling behavior furthermore more loss averse farmers exhibited a higher realization of gains

migration theories and evidence an assessment abstract this paper presents a critical survey of theories of migration their welfare and policy implications and their empirical relevance we also develop some extensions to the theory beginning with the harris and todaro ht model in particular the ht model is extended to examine risk averse behaviour within families where the migration of members of families serves to diversify risk the welfare implications of the individual migration decision and government intervention in the form of employment subsidies are examined recent evidence on international migration is presented it is shown that migration does not flow automatically in response to wage differentials characteristics of migrants and the process of self selection are found to be important determinants of the rate of migration

the effect of literacy on immigrant earnings we examine the impact of literacy on immigrant earnings and the sources of lower returns to education and experience among immigrants we find that the native born literacy distribution dominates that for immigrants however the two groups obtain similar returns to literacy skills contrary to discrimination based explanations for immigrant native born earnings differentials among the university educated literacy differences account for about two thirds of the earnings gap however low returns to foreign experience have a larger impact on this differential among the less educated literacy differences and differences in the returns to experience have similar effects on the earnings differential

education and ethnicity in canada an intergenerational perspective ethnic and intergenerational aspects of human capital investment are explored levels of and cross sectional returns to education across ethnic groups in canada are estimated and large differences observed for men a positive correlation exists between ethnic group average years of education and its return we also find large negative correlations between ethnic group average educational outcomes and the previous generation s fertility suggesting a role for home production as a complement to formal education and supporting models of child quantity quality trade offs very slow intergenerational convergence in ethnic group level educational and labor market outcomes is also observed

social structure and development a legacy of the holocaust in russia we document a statistical association between the severity of the persecution displacement and mass murder of jews by the nazis during world war ii and long run economic and political outcomes within russia cities that experienced the holocaust most intensely have grown less and both cities and administrative districts oblasts where the holocaust had the largest impact have worse economic and political outcomes since the collapse of the soviet union we provide evidence that the lasting impact of the holocaust may be attributable to a permanent change it induced in the social structure across different regions of russia

technological change occupational tasks and declining immigrant outcomes implications for earnings and income inequality in canada the earnings and occupational task requirements of immigrants to canada are analyzed the growing education levels of immigrants in the 1990s have not led to a large improvement in earnings as one might expect if growing computerization and the resulting technological change was leading to a rising return to non routine cognitive skills and a greater wage return to university education controlling for education we find a pronounced cross arrival cohort decline in earnings that coincided with cross cohort declines in cognitive occupational task requirements and cross cohort increases in manual occupational task requirements the immigrant earnings outcomes had only a small effect on overall canadian earnings inequality resume changement technique t ches occupationnelles et resultats declinants pour les immigrants implications pour l inegalite des gains et des revenus au canada les auteurs analysent les gains et les prerequis des t ches occupationnelles des immigrants les niveaux d education croissants des immigrants dans les annees 1990 n ont pas entraine une grande amelioration dans les gains comme on aurait pu s y attendre si l informatisation accrue et les changements techniques qui s ensuivent ont entraine un rendement croissant sur des habiletes cognitives non routinieres et un rendement salarial plus grand sur l education universitaire normalisant pour le niveau d education on decouvre un declin entre cohortes dans les gains qui coincide avec un declin dans ce que reclament les t ches en termes d habiletes cognitives et un accroissement de ce que reclament les occupations manuelles l effet de ces changements sur les gains des immigrants n a eu qu un faible impact sur l inegalite des gains au canada

prospect theory and risk preferences of oregon seed producers prospect theory relates risk preference classifications to gains and losses from a reference income level this study applies prospect theory to reinterpret historical studies of risk preferences of oregon grass seed growers a significant relationship between changes in classifications of preferences and changes in income was found results indicated that those who lost income were concentrated in the category of changing to risk preferrers income changes calculated from crop combinations were also found to be correlated in a theoretically correct pattern with positive measures of risk from crop enterprises the research therefore is consistent with further applications of prospect theory to farm management

comparing features of convenient estimators for binary choice models with endogenous regressors abstract we discuss the relative advantages and disadvantages of four types of convenient estimators of binary choice models when regressors may be endogenous or mismeasured or when errors are likely to be heteroscedastic for example such models arise when treatment is not randomly assigned and outcomes are binary the estimators we compare are the two stage least squares linear probability model maximum likelihood estimation control function estimators and special regressor methods we specifically focus on models and associated estimators that are easy to implement also for calculating choice probabilities and regressor marginal effects we propose the average index function aif which unlike the average structural function asf is always easy to estimate

brain waste educated immigrants in the u s labor market the authors investigate the occupational placement of immigrants in the u s labor market using census data they find striking differences among highly educated immigrants from different countries even after they control for individuals age experience and level of education with some exceptions educated immigrants from latin american and eastern european countries are more likely to end up in unskilled jobs than immigrants from asia and industrial countries a large part of the variation can be explained by attributes of the country of origin that influence the quality of human capital such as expenditure on tertiary education and the use of english as a medium of instruction performance is adversely affected by military conflict at home which may weaken institutions that create human capital and lower the threshold quality of immigrants the selection effects of u s immigration policy also play an important role in explaining cross country variation the observed under placement of educated migrants might be alleviated if home and host countries cooperate by sharing information on labor market conditions and work toward the recognition of qualifications

the changing labor market position of canadian immigrants this paper uses pooled 1971 1981 and 1986 canadian census data to evaluate the extent to which 1 the earnings of canadian immigrants at the time of immigration fall short of the earnings of comparable canadian born individuals and 2 immigrants earnings grow more rapidly over time than those of the canadian born variations in the labour market assimilation of immigrants according to their gender and country of origin are also analysed the results suggest that recent immigrant cohorts have had more difficulty being assimilated into the canadian labour market than earlier ones an apparent consequence of recent changes in canadian immigration policy labour market discrimination against visible minorities and the prolonged recession of the early 1980s summary in fre excerpt

immigrant earnings differentials and birth year effects for men in canada post war 1972 this paper investigates immigrant earnings differentials for males in canada and how these earnings have changed over time leading up to 1972 with workers year of birth the paper uses the 1973 job mobility survey which contains a direct measure of work experience reported independent of age thus using age as a birth year index it is found that cross sectional earnings differentials of immigrant men have widened since the later 1960s relative to those of native born workers summary in fre excerpt

the performance of immigrants in the canadian labor market in this article we examine the economic assimilation of immigrants to canada we provide new evidence on immigrants who arrived in the 1970s and document an increase in the dispersion of labor market outcomes across immigrants of different vintages over time our results confirm u s evidence of permanent differences across immigrant cohorts what distinguishes the canadian experience is small or negative rates of assimilation for most cohorts over the sample period finally we test the overidentification of the assimilation process specified in previous studies and fail to reject the usual cohort fixed effect specification

the receipt of transfer payments by immigrants to canada using the native born as a benchmark we examine immigrants reliance on canadas social safety net we find that immigrants have lower participation rates in unemployment insurance and social assistance than natives we also find that assimilation leads to greater participation in both these programs more recent immigrant cohorts have higher recipiency rates than their predecessors the results for social assistance contrast with u s evidence that the raw entry participation rates of many immigrant cohorts exceed the native rates finally our analysis of rent subsidies shows that immigrants initially have higher rates of participation which fall with assimilation excerpt

education credentials and immigrant earnings using 1981 to 2001 census data we study how the human capital of immigrants is rewarded in canada we distinguish between years of schooling and degrees obtained in order to estimate sheepskin effects the gain in earnings associated with receipt of a degree controlling for years of schooling we find that immigrant years of schooling and immigrant work experience accumulated before arrival is valued much less than canadian experience of comparable natives however for immigrants the increase in earnings associated with completing educational programs is generally higher than that of comparable natives we provide both signalling and human capital interpretations of this finding a l aide des donnees de recensement entre 1981 et 2001 on examine la facon dont le capital humain des immigrants est reconnu et remunere au canada on fait la distinction entre les annees de scolarite et les grades obtenus afin de calibrer les effets du diplome les gains associes a l obtention du grade apres avoir pris en compte les annees de scolarite on decouvre que les annees de scolarite et d experience accumulees par les immigrants avant leur arrivee recoivent une ponderation moins grande que l experience comparable des canadiens cependant pour les immigrants le fait de completer leur programme a un effet sur l accroissement des revenus qui est plus important que pour les canadiens de souche on suggere des interpretations de ces resultats a partir de theorisations fondees sur le capital humain et la theorie des signaux

immigrants and the dynamics of high wage jobs the authors exploit immigrant identifiers in the canadian labour force survey lfs and the longitudinal dimension of these data to compare the labor force and job dynamics of immigrants and native born workers they examine the role of job as opposed to worker heterogeneity in driving immigrant wage disparities and investigate how the paths into and out of jobs of varying quality compare between immigrant and native born workers they find that the disparity in immigrant job quality which does not appear to diminish with years since arrival reflects a combination of relatively low transitions into high wage jobs and high transitions out of these jobs the former result appears to be due equally to difficulties obtaining high wage jobs directly out of unemployment and to using low wage jobs as stepping stones the authors find little or no evidence however that immigrant job seekers face barriers to low wage jobs

the long term effects of africa s slave trades can part of africa s current underdevelopment be explained by its slave trades to explore this question i use data from shipping records and historical documents reporting slave ethnicities to construct estimates of the number of slaves exported from each country during africa s slave trades i find a robust negative relationship between the number of slaves exported from a country and current economic performance to better understand if the relationship is causal i examine the historical evidence on selection into the slave trades and use instrumental variables together the evidence suggests that the slave trades have had an adverse effect on economic development

producer attitudes toward output price risk experimental evidence from the lab and from the field a number of agricultural and food policy instruments are predicated on the idea that producers dislike output price risk we test experimentally some theoretical predictions about the behavior of producers in the face of output price risk namely sandmo s 1971 prediction that price risk at the extensive margin causes risk averse producers to decrease how much they produce and batra and ullah s 1974 prediction that price risk at the intensive margin causes producers whose preferences exhibit decreasing absolute risk aversion to further decrease how much they produce we do so in labs with us college students as well as in the field with peruvian farmers first as regards price risk at the extensive margin we find no support for sandmo s prediction second consistent with batra and ullah s prediction we find that output decreases in response to price risk at the intensive margin when imposing a linear relationship between output and price risk when relaxing the assumption of linearity between output and price risk however we find a nonmonotonic relationship between output and price risk taken together these results are broadly inconsistent with expected utility theory alternative models of behavior in the face of risk such as prospect theory may explain the behavior we observe

confidence intervals for conditional tail risk measures in arma garch models abstractarma garch models are widely used to model the conditional mean and conditional variance dynamics of returns on risky assets empirical results suggest heavy tailed innovations with positive extreme value index for these models hence one may use extreme value theory to estimate extreme quantiles of residuals using weak convergence of the weighted sequential tail empirical process of the residuals we derive the limiting distribution of extreme conditional value at risk cvar and conditional expected shortfall ces estimates for a wide range of extreme value index estimators to construct confidence intervals we propose to use self normalization this leads to improved coverage vis a vis the normal approximation while delivering slightly wider confidence intervals a data driven choice of the number of upper order statistics in the estimation is suggested and shown to work well in simulations an application to stock index returns documents the improvements of cvar and ces forecasts

close encounters of two kinds false alarms and dashed hopes people are frequently exposed to potentially attractive events that are subsequently and unexpectedly reversed and to potentially painful events which are also unexpectedly reversed in the process of being returned to the initial asset position does the sequence in which the positive and negative events occur matter this issue of the combined effect of pleasurable and painful stimuli has received scant theoretical or empirical attention we attempt to fill this lacuna in the literature by studying the retrospective evaluation of surprises that return individuals to their original economic state although such surprises do not change an individual s original economic state we argue that the individual s psychological state changes and the final affective state is among other things a function of the sequence in which the events occur from a theoretical standpoint several perspectives can be brought to bear on the issue for instance one reading of mental accounting based on prospect theory s value function would predict that losses should dominate gains and therefore regardless of sequence people should be unhappy when exposed to two economically equivalent outcomes of different signs conversely the literature on intertemporal choice would suggest that a series that ends on an up note is preferred to a series that ends on a down note because people like to defer gratification so that they may savor positive outcomes similarly people apparently have a preference for happy endings finally the extant literature on recency effects would predict that the last event in a series should have a disproportionate influence on overall affect our model relies on a shift in the reference point to explain how a surprising reversal of an event will lead to a nonzero evaluation of the sequence we suggest that people s reference points shift immediately but imperfectly after a stimulus is presented intuitively this implies that the first stimulus will shift the reference point in its direction as a result of which the evaluation of a sequence of events in which an initial event is unexpectedly reversed will be more favorable if the first event is a loss than if it is a gain this model captures the unanticipated nature of the second event i e the surprise element by allowing the first event to move the reference point consequently by the time the next event occurs the reference point has been updated as a result of which the zero economic outcome of the sequence yields nonzero utility we further posit that the magnitude of the reference point shift should be affected by the time elapsed between the two stimuli specifically the reference point shifts gradually with time until it is fully updated consequently the final affective state of the sequence is also a function of the temporal distance between the two events the main predictions of the model were empirically supported first in a survey using a mall intercept sample subsequently we conducted a study of student subjects involving a coin tossing game in which real money was at stake and in which subjects in one condition experienced the second outcome after a two day delay our results from this second study supported the model s prediction regarding the impact of the elapsed time between the events the experimental tasks involved surprising reversals of initial outcomes thus ensuring that savoring dread types of explanations which require that subjects anticipate the second event could not be operating finally in a series of three follow up studies we tested the claim that the magnitude of outcomes would have an impact on observed affect and consistent with our theory and contrary to recency predictions we observed similar results across different magnitudes while theoretically interesting we should also note that our research is of potential pragmatic significance people s reactions to a series of events is of considerable interest to marketers desirous of generating enhanced attitude affect purchase intention and the like without offering economic inducements such as rebates coupons or other costly discounts additionally public policy officials may be interested in protecting people from being manipulated into purchasing a product simply because of changes in the sequence in which a series of offers is made by the merchant

why do immigrant workers in australia perform better than those in canada is it the immigrants or their labour markets research comparing the labour market performance of recent cohorts of immigrants to australia and canada points to superior employment and earnings outcomes in australia examining australian and canadian census data between 1986 and 2006 we find that this performance advantage is not driven by differences in broader labour market conditions affecting all new labour market entrants rather the results from comparing immigrants from a common source country either the u k india or china suggest that australian immigrants perform better particularly in average earnings primarily because of a different source country distribution moreover the recent tightening of australian selection policy most notably its use of mandatory pre migration english language testing appears to be having an effect primarily by further shifting the source country distribution of immigrants away from non english speaking source countries rather than in identifying higher quality migrants within source countries pourquoi est ce que les travailleurs immigrants en australie s en tirent mieux que ceux qui choisissent le canada probleme d immigrants ou de marches du travail les recherches comparant la performance des recentes cohortes d immigrants sur le marche du travail en australie et au canada suggerent des resultats superieurs en australie tant pour ce qui est des niveaux d emploi que pour les niveaux de gains d emploi examinant les donnees de recensements au canada et en australie entre 1986 et 2006 on decouvre que cet avantage au niveau de la performance n est pas attribuable a des differences dans les conditions generales du marche du travail affectant tous les nouveaux entrants sur le marche du travail c est plutot qu en comparant les immigrants d une source commune d immigrants u k indes ou chine les resultats suggerent que les immigrants en australie s en tirent mieux en particulier pour ce qui est des gains moyens surtout a cause de la repartition differente des pays d origine de plus le resserrement recent de la politique de selection australienne en particulier son utilisation d un test obligatoire de connaissance de l anglais avant l immigration semble avoir eu pour effet de deplacer la repartition de la source des immigrants de maniere a diminuer l immigration en provenance de pays ou on ne parle pas l anglais plutot que d identifier des immigrants potentiels de plus haute qualite dans les divers pays d origine

using cumulative prospect theory to explain anomalous crop insurance coverage choice farmers decisions about how much crop insurance to buy are not generally consistent with expected utility maximization taking into account both marginal risk benefits and marginal subsidy effects suggests that most farmers have chosen lower coverage levels than would be predicted by standard models by modeling financial outcomes as gains and losses cumulative prospect theory offers an alternative framework to perhaps better understand farmers purchase decisions the role of the reference point that defines outcomes as either a gain or a loss the degree of loss aversion curvature of the value function and the probability weighting function in determining optimal crop insurance coverage levels are explored for three representative farms calibrated to 2009 conditions loss aversion and how crop insurance is framed through choice of the reference point are shown to be the key factors that determine whether predictions from prospect theory are consistent with observed crop insurance coverage choices when crop insurance is framed as a tool to manage farm risk then optimal choices under prospect theory are not consistent with observed choices if crop insurance is framed as a stand alone investment where a loss is felt if the indemnity received is less than the premium paid then prospect theory can generate optimal coverage level choices that are largely consistent with observed decisions this result is shown to be robust to changes in parameterizations as long as loss aversion is maintained and if curvature of the value function is accompanied by decision weights that overweight low probability outcomes

assimilation changes in cohort quality and the earnings of immigrants this paper reexamines the empirical basis for two facts that seem to be found in most cross section studies of immigrant earnings 1 the earnings of immigrants grow rapidly as they assimilate into the united states and 2 this rapid growth leads to many immigrants overtaking the earnings of the natives within 10 15 years after immigration using the 1970 and 1980 u s censuses this paper studies the earnings growth experienced by specific immigrant cohorts during the period 1970 80 it is found that within cohort growth is significantly smaller than the growth predicted by cross section regressions for most immigrant groups this differential is consistent with the hypothesis that there has been a secular decline in the quality of immigrants admitted to the united states

the causes and consequences of distinctively black names in the 1960s blacks and whites chose relatively similar first names for their children over a short period of time in the early 1970s that pattern changed dramatically with most blacks particularly those living in racially isolated neighborhoods adopting increasingly distinctive names but a subset of blacks actually moving toward more assimilating names the patterns in the data appear most consistent with a model in which the rise of the black power movement influenced how blacks perceived their identities among blacks born in the last two decades names provide a strong signal of socioeconomic status which was not previously the case we find however no negative relationship between having a distinctively black name and later life outcomes after controlling for a child s circumstances at birth

the legacy of immigration labour market performance and education in the second generation previous research finds that the children of immigrants or the second generation earn at least as much as other native born but that there are persistent ethnic differences in the intergenerational transmission of education and wages we explain why these results are not incompatible and extend the empirical evidence in several directions using the canadian survey of labour and income dynamics first we estimate a model of wages earnings and hours worked using modern econometric techniques to corroborate earlier us results of complete integration by the second generation in the labour market we find that ethnic differences in labour market performance are significant but that these difference do not alter conclusions about the relative performance of the second generation second we find a source of superior labour market performance for the second generation in higher educational attainment which constitutes an important legacy of immigration that should not be ignored third we find that the de

economics and identity this paper considers how identity a person s sense of self affects economic outcomes we incorporate the psychology and sociology of identity into an economic model of behavior in the utility function we propose identity is associated with different social categories and how people in these categories should behave we then construct a simple game theoretic model showing how identity can affect individual interactions the paper adapts these models to gender discrimination in the workplace the economics of poverty and social exclusion and the household division of labor in each case the inclusion of identity substantively changes conclusions of previous economic analysis

employment wages and the economic cycle differences between immigrants and natives in this paper we analyse differences in the cyclical pattern of employment and wages of immigrants and natives for two large immigrant receiving countries germany and the uk we show that despite large differences in their immigrant populations there are similar and significant differences in cyclical responses between immigrants and natives in both countries even conditional on education age and location we decompose changes in outcomes into a secular trend and a business cycle component we find significantly larger unemployment responses to economic shocks for low skilled workers relative to high skilled workers and for immigrants relative to natives within the same skill group there is little evidence for differential wage responses to economic shocks we offer three explanations for these findings an equilibrium search model where immigrants experience higher job separation rates a model of dual labour markets and differences in the complementarity of immigrants and natives to capital

the visible minority earnings gap across generations of canadians abstract to what extent the earnings gaps facing canada s visible minorities reflect discrimination is a question of tremendous policy interest this paper argues that failing to account for the limited canadian ancestry of visible minorities overestimates discrimination if immigrant assimilation is an intergenerational process using the 2001 and 2006 canadian censuses weekly earnings conditional on a rich set of worker and job characteristics are compared with child immigrant second and third and higher generation canadian men the results reveal a tendency for earnings to increase across subsequent generations of visible minority but not white men though the pattern is strongest between the first and second generation for black men it is also evident between the canadian born with and without a canadian born parent despite this progress for most visible minority groups earnings gaps are identified even among third and higher generation canadians

you can t take it with you immigrant assimilation and the portability of human capital the national origin of an individual s human capital is a crucial determinant of its value education and labor market experience acquired abroad are significantly less valued than human capital obtained domestically this difference can fully explain the earnings disadvantage of immigrants relative to comparable natives in israel variation in the return to foreign schooling across origin countries may reflect differences in its quality and compatibility with the host labor market the return to foreign experience is generally insignificant acquiring additional education following immigration appears to confer a compound benefit by raising the return to education acquired abroad

forced coexistence and economic development evidence from native american reservations there are large differences in economic development across native american reservations today this paper asks whether these differences can be in part explained by the forced integration of historically autonomous sub tribal bands in the 19th century to measure forced integration i combine anthropological data on intra tribal political integration in pre reservation times with historical information on the constituent bands of each reservation exploring variation in how politically integrated tribes were before reservations and variation in how politically integrated reservations were at the time of their formation i find that forced integration lowers per capita incomes today by about 30 percent to account for potential selection into forced integration i exploit historical mining rushes as a source of exogenous variation in the government s incentive to combine bands onto reservations the iv strategy confirms the baseline results i also provide quantitative evidence on the channels through which forced integration affects incomes today

measuring producers risk preferences a global risk attitude construct in applied agricultural economic research various risk attitude elicitation techniques are used here we investigate whether risk attitude measures rooted in the expected utility framework are related to measures rooted in the multi item scale framework using a second order factor analytical model and data obtained from personal computer guided interviews with 373 farmers we investigate whether the common variance among the latent risk attitude measures can be accounted for by a global risk attitude construct we find that the different risk attitude measures are related and that the global risk attitude construct is significantly related to farmers intention to use futures contracts our research suggests that farmers risk attitude is a higher order characteristic that cannot be effectively extracted by a single measure in empiricalstudies deal ing with risk risk attitudes and producers market behavior various risk attitude measures are used two major approaches to quantify directly farmers risk attitudes can be distinguished measures derived from the expected utility framework and measures derived from responses to multi item scales e g antle chavas and holt goodwin and schroeder saha shumway and talpaz smidts the purpose of this research is to test whether risk attitude measures rooted in the expected utility framework are related to the risk attitude scales rooted in the multiitem scale approach and if so whether these risk attitude measures share a common

backtesting trading risk of commercial banks using expected shortfall this paper uses saddlepoint technique to backtest the trading risk of commercial banks using expected shortfall it is found that four out of six us commercial banks have excessive trading risks monte carlo simulation studies show that the proposed backtest is very accurate and powerful even for small test samples more importantly risk managers can carry out the proposed backtest based on any number of exceptions so that incorrect risk models can be promptly detected before any further huge losses are realized

how many cake eaters chouette on a du monde a diner abstract we use a cake eating model with a non renewable resource and a backstop technology to describe the intertemporal effect of a sudden increase of the population level e g due to migration the migrants enter an economy in which there is already surplus labor and they receive transfers from natives these assumptions imply that the present discounted value of natives welfare falls the counterintuitive result is that the flow of natives utility can increase at the time of the population change

immigrant job search assimilation in canada immigrant assimilation is a major issue in many countries while most of the literature studies assimilation through a human capital framework we examine the role of job search assimilation to do so we estimate an equilibrium search model of immigrants operating in the same labour market as natives where newly arrived immigrants have lower job offer arrival rates than natives but can acquire the same arrival rates according to a stochastic process using canadian panel data we find substantial differences in job offer arrival and destruction rates between natives and immigrants that are able to account for three quarters of the observed earnings gap the estimates imply that immigrants take on average 13 years to acquire the native search parameters due to immigrants facing much lower on the job offer arrival rates than natives the model predicts that earnings growth through job search is minimal for immigrants prior to their job search assimilation

new evidence on the economic progress of foreign born men in the 1970s and 1980s this study examines the economic progress of foreign born men in the united states europeans entered the united states with relatively high wages and earned wages comparable to natives over their life course japanese korean and chinese men entered with lower wages but quickly caught up with u s born workers mexicans and central americans entered with low wages and the wage gap between themselves and u s born workers has not shrunk disparities in completed years of education and whether education was received in the united states can explain a large share of the differences in the level of wages for immigrants from some countries it is found that more highly educated men assimilate more quickly the rate of economic progress has not improved for more recent arrivals from any country but this is most problematic among mexicans and central americans because of their relatively low rates of wage growth excerpt

thedouble negativeeffect onthe earnings of foreign born females in canada this paper contributes to the debate over immigrant quality by examining whether or not a double negative effect on the earnings of female immigrants exists in canada contrary to popular belief this study observes that labour market adjustments occur at a faster rate for female immigrants than for male immigrants the results indicate that immigrant women in canada suffer from a double negative effect mainly because of gender earnings discrimination rather than birthplace discrimination earnings discrimination by birthplace is more pronounced among males than females the findings suggest that in evaluating immigrant quality researchers should take into account the potential role of labour market discrimination

the medium run effects of educational expansion evidence from a large school construction program in indonesia this paper studies the medium run consequences of an increase in the rate of accumulation of human capital in a developing country from 1974 to 1978 the indonesian government built over 61 000 primary schools the school construction program led to an increase in education among individuals who were young enough to attend primary school after 1974 but not among the older cohorts 2sls estimates suggest that an increase of 10 percentage points in the proportion of primary school graduates in the labor force reduced the wages of the older cohorts by 3 8 10 and increased their formal labor force participation by 4 7 i propose a two sector model as a framework to interpret these findings the results suggest that physical capital did not adjust to the faster increase in human capital

formation and adaptation of reference prices in grain marketing an experimental study this study aimed to explore how producers reference prices are formed and adapt over time and how they affect marketing decisions results indicate that producers focus on three major variables to form their reference prices the current market price the highest price to date and their expectation about price behavior further they update their reference prices during the marketing season mainly in response to changes in current market prices their own expectations about price behavior and the general price trend finally our findings suggest that producers marketing decisions are based on the spread between current market price and reference price the general market trend and price expectation

the earnings of immigrant men in canada job tenure cohort and macroeconomic conditions using eleven cross sectional surveys spanning 1981 92 the authors compare the earnings of immigrant and native born men in canada apparently recent immigrant cohorts have suffered no decline in earnings job tenure is found to be a strongly significant determinant of earnings previous estimates of immigrant earnings differentials which have not incorporated job tenure information may partly reflect differences in tenure between immigrants and the native born when the sample is restricted to pairs of surveys that are close to the census survey years the estimates of cohort effects are sensitive to the choice of survey years one possible explanation for that sensitivity is suggested by the finding that macroeconomic conditions are a statistically significant determinant of the rate of assimilation of recent immigrants

a note on canadian migration to the united states during the 1980s and 1990s considerable media attention had been directed towards the flow of highly talented canadians to the united states in the 1990s there are firm theoretical reasons however to believe that qualitative differences in migration began as early as the 1980s owing to the widening distribution of earnings and the related increased returns to education in the united states relative to canada both of which could result in qualitative improvements in the migration flow us immigration policy remained essentially unchanged during the 1980s but changed markedly in the 1990s owing to the implementation of the canada us free trade agreement cufta and its successor the north american free trade agreement nafta we use a flexible empirical approach to document these changes in immigrant quality using 1980 1990 and 2000 us census data our results suggest that improvements in canadian immigrant quality occurred during the 1990s but these also happened earlier casting doubt on the hypothesis of improving canadi

the disposition effect in securities trading an experimental analysis the disposition effect is the tendency to sell assets that have gained value winners and keep assets that have lost value losers disposition effects can be explained by the two features of prospect theory the idea that people value gains and losses relative to a reference point the initial purchase price of shares and the tendency to seek risk when faced with possible losses and avoid risk when a certain gain is possible our experiments were designed to see if subjects would exhibit disposition effects subjects bought and sold shares in six risky assets asset prices fluctuated in each period contrary to bayesian optimization subjects did tend to sell winners and keep losers when the shares were automatically sold after each period the disposition effect was greatly reduced

an empirical analysis of acting white abstract using a newly available data set which allows one to construct a novel measure of a student s social status we demonstrate that there are potentially important racial differences in the relationship between social status and academic achievement the effect is concentrated among students with a grade point average gpa of 3 5 or higher and more pronounced in schools with more interracial contact earlier studies showing a positive relationship between popularity and academic achievement for blacks are sensitive to the inclusion of more continuous achievement measures we argue that the data are most consistent with a model of acting white in which investments in education are taken as a signal of one s opportunity costs of peer group loyalty though imprecise estimates make definitive conclusions difficult

ethnic enclaves and immigrant earnings growth the impact of living in an ethnic enclave on earnings growth of immigrants in canada is examined using the 1981 2001 censuses consistent with u s findings enclaves are found to have a negative impact on the earnings growth of male immigrants a negative impact is also found for female immigrants living in an enclave was found to be particularly harmful for individuals immigrating as adults especially for females but did not affect immigrants who arrived at a young age enclaves had a more negative impact on high skilled male immigrants especially if they had received the bulk of their education outside canada enclaves were also found to hinder language skills l impact du fait de vivre dans une enclave ethnique sur la croissance des gains des immigrants au canada est analysea l aide des donnees de recensements de 1981 a 2001 en concordance avec les resultats des etudes americaines on decouvre que les enclaves ont un effet negatif sur la croissance des gains des hommes immigrants il y a aussi un impact negatif sur la croissance des gains des femmes immigrantes vivre dans une enclave est particulierement dommageable pour les personnes qui immigrent au stade adulte et ce particulierement pour les femmes les effets negatifs ne se font pas sentir sur les immigrants qui arrivent en bas ge les enclaves ont un effet davantage negatif pour les hommes immigrants hautement qualifies en particulier s ils ont recu le gros de leur education hors du canada on montre que de vivre en enclaves retarde le developpement d habiletes langagieres

estimating average and local average treatment effects of education when compulsory schooling laws really matter the change to the minimum school leaving age in the united kingdom from 14 to 15 had a powerful and immediate effect that redirected almost half the population of 14 year olds in the mid twentieth century to stay in school for one more year the magnitude of this impact provides a rare opportunity to a estimate local average treatment effects late of high school that come close to population average treatment effects ate and b estimate returns to education using a regression discontinuity design instead of previous estimates that rely on difference in differences methodology or relatively weak instruments comparing late estimates for the united states and canada where very few students were affected by compulsory school laws to the united kingdom estimates provides a test as to whether instrumental variables iv returns to schooling often exceed ordinary least squares ols because gains are high only for small and peculiar groups among the more general population i find instead that the benefits from compulsory schooling are very large whether these laws have an impact on a majority or minority of those exposed

multinomial var backtests a simple implicit approach to backtesting expected shortfall under the fundamental review of the trading book frtb capital charges for the trading book are based on the coherent expected shortfall es risk measure which show greater sensitivity to tail risk in this paper it is argued that backtesting of expected shortfall or the trading book model from which it is calculated can be based on a simultaneous multinomial test of value at risk var exceptions at different levels an idea supported by an approximation of es in terms of multiple quantiles of a distribution proposed in emmer et al 2015 by comparing pearson nass and likelihood ratio tests lrts for different numbers of var levels n it is shown in a series of simulation experiments that multinomial tests with n 4 are much more powerful at detecting misspecifications of trading book loss models than standard bi nomial exception tests corresponding to the case n 1 each test has its merits pearson offers simplicity nass is robust in its size properties to the choice of n the lrt is very powerful though slightly over sized in small samples and more computationally burdensome a traffic light system for trading book models based on the multinomial test is proposed and the recommended procedure is applied to a real data example spanning the 2008 financial crisis