the impact of the german feed in tariff scheme on innovation evidence based on patent filings in renewable energy technologies abstract over the last two decades feed in tariffs have pushed the massive expansion of electricity from renewable energy sources in germany between 1991 and 1999 feed in tariffs were prescribed through the electricity feed in law the so called stromeinspeisungsgesetz seg at relatively moderate rates from 2000 onwards the seg was replaced by the renewable energy sources act the so called erneuerbare energien gesetz eeg with much higher subsidy rates the rise in subsidies to renewable power generation under the eeg came along with a substantial increase in electricity prices provoking an intense public debate on the benefits of renewable energy promotion in our regression analysis we assess one popular justification for feed in tariffs the demand side effect of induced innovation we find that the innovation impact of the german feed in tariff scheme over the last two decades supports the positive innovation hypothesis however the inducement effect of the feed in tariff scheme under the eeg is not significantly different from that of the seg given the drastic cost of the eeg we caution against the appraisal of the eeg feed in tariff scheme solely on the grounds of its impact on technological innovation

tax distortions and global climate policy abstract we consider the efficiency implications of policies to reduce global carbon emissions in a world with pre existing tax distortions we first note that the weak double dividend the proposition that the welfare improvement from a tax reform where environmental taxes are used to lower distorting taxes must be greater than the welfare improvement from a reform where the environmental taxes are returned in a lump sum fashion need not hold in a world with multiple distortions we then present a large scale computable general equilibrium model of the world economy with distortionary taxation we use this model to evaluate a number of policies to reduce carbon emissions we find that the weak double dividend is not obtained in a number of european countries results also demonstrate the point that the interplay between carbon policies and pre existing taxes can differ markedly across countries thus one must be cautious in extrapolating the results from a country specific analysis to other countries

transition towards a low carbon economy a computable general equilibrium analysis for poland in the transition to sustainable economic structures the european union assumes a leading role with its climate and energy package which sets ambitious greenhouse gas emission reduction targets by 2020 among eu member states poland with its heavy energy system reliance on coal is particularly worried on the pending trade offs between emission regulation and economic growth in our computable general equilibrium analysis of the eu climate and energy package we show that economic adjustment cost for poland hinge crucially on restrictions to where flexibility of emission abatement revenue recycling and technological options in the power system we conclude that more comprehensive flexibility provisions at the eu level and a diligent policy implementation at the national level could achieve the transition towards a low carbon economy at little cost thereby broadening societal support

origins and development of the eu ets the successful creation of the european union emissions trading scheme eu ets was not inevitable countries such as canada and japan which might be thought to have a less complex and more cohesive cultural and institutional context failed to do so europe succeeded for a number of reasons with a single market for the economy the logic of a single market for environment is inexorable the european commission which had failed in its earlier efforts to introduce a carbon energy tax made the case for trading with great skill and persistence on the basis of qualified majority voting which meant no country had a veto the uk and denmark initiated their own national schemes and there was a serious risk of balkanising the market with up to 27 different schemes with the losses of scale and scope this would entail meeting the union s kyoto commitments required a substantive pan european response and eu ets was the most credible and effective way of doing so the european parliament and environmental non governmental organisations played a constructive role pushing for more auctioning of allowances and less of them allocated centrally free allocation managed by member states ms was a necessary condition to achieve the support needed so they failed to achieve these objectives in the initial phase but they characterize the commission s proposals post 2012

price setting power vs private information an experimental evaluation of their impact on holdup abstract this paper investigates the extent of the holdup problem in a buyer seller relationship in which the seller has private information about his alternative opportunities theory predicts that compared to a situation in which outside options are publicly observed the seller obtains an informational rent whereas the buyer bears an informational loss as a result the seller is predicted to invest more while the buyer is expected to invest less in contrast to this private information has no impact on the investment levels observed in the experiment but actual investments do increase with the price setting power of the investor these findings are roughly consistent with a model in which agents are inequality averse overall the results question some recent theoretical suggestions that private information rents might substitute for price setting power in mitigating holdup

fuel taxes an important instrument for climate policy abstract this article shows that fuel taxes serve a very important role for the environment and that we risk a backlash of increased emissions if they are abolished fuel taxes have restrained growth in fuel demand and associated carbon emissions although fuel demand is large and growing our analysis shows that it would have been much higher in the absence of domestic fuel taxes people often assert that fuel demand is inelastic but there is strong research evidence showing the opposite the price elasticity is in fact quite high but only in the long run in the short run it may be quite inelastic which has important implications for policy makers had europe not followed a policy of high fuel taxation but had low us taxes then fuel demand would have been twice as large hypothetical transport demand in the whole oecd area is calculated for various tax scenarios and the results show that fuel taxes are the single most powerful climate policy instrument implemented to date yet this fact is not usually given due attention in the debate

what are the key drivers of mac curves a partial equilibrium modelling approach for the uk marginal abatement cost mac curves are widely used for the assessment of costs related to co2 emissions reduction in environmental economics as well as domestic and international climate policy several meta analyses and model comparisons have previously been performed that aim to identify the causes for the wide range of mac curves most of these concentrate on general equilibrium models with a focus on aspects such as specific model type and technology learning while other important aspects remain almost unconsidered including the availability of abatement technologies and level of discount rates this paper addresses the influence of several key parameters on mac curves for the united kingdom and the year 2030 a technology rich energy system model uk markal is used to derive the mac curves the results of this study show that mac curves are robust even to extreme fossil fuel price changes while uncertainty around the choice of the discount rate the availability of key abatement technologies and the demand level were singled out as the most important influencing factors by using a different model type and studying a wider range of influencing factors this paper contributes to the debate on the sensitivity of mac curves

intra and extra union flexibility in meeting the european union s emission reduction targets the eu has proposed four flexibility mechanisms for the regulation of greenhouse gas emissions in the period 2013 2020 1 the emissions trade scheme ets a permit market between selected companies 2 trade in non ets allotments between member states 3 the clean development mechanism cdm to purchase offsets in developing countries and 4 trade in cdm warrants between member states this paper shows that aggregate abatement costs fall as flexibility increases however limited flexibility creates rents so that increasing flexibility raises costs in some member states costs are reduced more by the cdm than by non ets trade the cdm warrants market reduces costs by a small amount only market power is a real issue however the warrants market is obsolete in case there is non ets trade the cdm leads to price convergence between the ets and non ets market there would be one price for carbon in the european union if the proposed limits on cdm access are relaxed slightly

is there a hold up problem most literature on the hold up problem starts from the assumption that ex post bargaining outcomes are insensitive to prior investment costs we argue that this approach is unsatisfactory if the bargaining procedure is relatively symmetric it typically admits multiple perfect equilibria some of which give the investor a high enough payofi to sustain e cient investment even if the bargaining procedure is asymmetric and rigged against the investor there may be investment if agents are driven by moral concerns or if communication creates commitment laboratory experiments indicate that communication is necessary and su cient for agents to coordinate on e cient outcomes when the bargaining game is symmetric when the bargaining game is rigged against the investor the hold up problem is mitigated but not eliminated by moral behavior communication is quite credible and we flnd that promises are more believable than threats

renegotiation design with unverifiable information this paper considers a buyer seller relationship with observable but unverifiable investments and or random utility parameters in such situations it is known that contract renegotiation may prevent the implementation of first best outcomes in this paper we show however that efficient investments and optimal risk sharing can typically be achieved provided the initial contract is able to monitor the ex post renegotiation process specifically we focus on the following two features of renegotiation design first default options in case renegotiation breaks down second the allocation of all bargaining power to either contracting party moreover we show that these two features can be obtained in standard rubinstein bargaining games through contractual provisions such as specific performance clauses and penalties for delay or equivalently financial hostages refundable without interest

marine trade offs comparing the benefits of off shore wind farms and marine protected areas the drive to increase renewable electricity production in many parts of europe has led to an increasing concentration of new wind energy sites at sea this results in a range of environmental impacts which should be taken into account in a benefit cost analysis of such proposals in this paper we use choice modeling to investigate the relative gains and losses from siting new windfarms off the coast of estonia relative to the option of creating a new marine protected area we find that while respondents are generally opposed to converting marine shoals to conventional wind farms and prefer the establishment of marine protected areas instead benefits from constructing environmentally friendly wind farms an alternative program which is also considered by the government are not statistically different with respect to consumers welfare to those associated with creating a new marine protected area methodologically the paper makes a contribution by showing the ability of the latent class mixed logit model to represent both within and between class preference heterogeneity and thus its power to provide a more sophisticated representation of preference heterogeneity than stand alone latent class or mixed logit approaches the paper also presents the first use of the latent class mixed logit model in willingness to pay space for environmental goods

designing an emissions trading scheme for china an up to date climate policy assessment abstract we assess recent chinese climate policy proposals in a multi region multi sector computable general equilibrium model with a chinese carbon emissions trading scheme ets when the emissions intensity per gdp in 2020 is required to be 45 lower than in 2005 the model simulations indicate that the climate policy induced welfare loss in 2020 measured as the level of gdp and welfare in 2020 under climate policy relative to their level under business as usual bau in the same year is about 1 the chinese welfare loss in 2020 slightly increases in the chinese rate of economic growth in 2020 when keeping the emissions target fixed at the 2020 level after 2020 in absolute terms the welfare loss will reach about 2 in 2030 if china s annual economic growth rate is 0 5 percentage points higher lower the climate policy induced welfare loss in 2030 will rise decline by about 0 5 percentage points full auctioning of carbon allowances results in very similar macroeconomic effects as free allocation but full auctioning leads to higher reductions in output than free allocation for ets sectors linking the chinese to the european ets and restricting the transfer volume to one third of the eu s reduction effort creates at best a small benefit for china yet with smaller sectoral output reductions than auctioning these results highlight the importance of designing the chinese ets wisely

the economic effects of the eu biofuel target in this paper we use the cge model dart to assess the economic impacts and optimality of different aspects of the eu climate package a special focus is placed on the 10 biofuel target in the eu in particular we analyze the development in the biofuel sectors the effects on agricultural production and prices and finally overall welfare implications one of the main findings is that the eu emission targets alone lead to only minor increases in biofuel production additional subsidies are necessary to reach the 10 biofuel target this in turn increases european agricultural prices by up to 7 compared to a cost effective scenario in which the eu 20 emission reduction target is reached additional welfare losses occur due to separated carbon markets and the renewable quotas the biofuel target has relatively small negative or even positive welfare effects in some scenarios

eu climate policy up to 2020 an economic impact assessment in its fight against climate change the eu is committed to reducing its overall greenhouse gas emissions to at least 20 below 1990 levels by 2020 to meet this commitment the eu builds on segmented market regulation with an eu wide cap and trade system for emissions from energy intensive installations ets sectors and additional measures by each eu member state covering emission sources outside the cap and trade system the non ets sector furthermore the eu has launched additional policy measures such as renewable energy subsidies in order to promote compliance with the climate policy target basic economic reasoning suggests that emission market segmentation and overlapping regulation can create substantial excess costs if we focus only on the climate policy target in this paper we evaluate the economic impacts of eu climate policy based on numerical simulations with a computable general equilibrium model of international trade and energy use our results highlight the importance of initial market distortions and imperfections as well as alternative baseline projections for the appropriate assessment of eu compliance cost

an innovative approach for strategic capacity portfolio planning under uncertainties abstract this research studies multi generation capacity portfolio planning problems under various uncertainty factors these uncertainty factors include price uncertainties demand fluctuation and uncertain product life cycle the objective of this research is to develop an efficient algorithm that generates capacity portfolio policies robust to aforementioned uncertainties we model this capacity portfolio planning problem using markov decision processes mdp in this mdp model we consider two generation of manufacturing technology the new generation capacity serves as a flexible resource that can be used to downward fulfill the deficiency of old generation capacity the objective of this mdp model is to maximize the expected profit under uncertainties an efficient algorithm is proposed to solve the problem and provide an optimal capacity expansion policy for both types of capacity moreover we show that the optimal capacity expansion policy can be characterized by a monotone structure we verify our results by detail simulation study

negotiation under possible third party resolution abstractthe effect of a possible third party resolution on negotiation behavior is studied in an economic bargaining experiment the bargaining phase is preceded by a production phase that allows for different fairness principles to guide the division of the total production value the experimental results show that a possible third party resolution lowers the dispute costs by reducing the number of rounds of alternating offers in the presence of a third party negotiators make first offers that are more strongly related to their production which reduces the number of bargaining rounds the production phase has an effect on the distributional property of the agreements in negotiations in which third party resolution is an option the negotiation outcome shifts toward a more unequal outcome more in line with each person s contribution

will a radical transport pricing reform jeopardize the ambitious eu climate change objectives abstract this paper examines the effects of replacing current fuel taxes by a system of taxes that account better for all the different external costs of the different transport modes one of the important implications of this reform is that current fuel taxes are decreased to a level of 80 euro ton of co 2 but that the mileage related taxes on car and truck use increase using the tremove model for the transport sector of 31 european countries one finds that the volume of transport will decrease because current taxes on transport are too low compared to overall external costs overall co 2 emissions will decrease slightly using the markal times model for the belgian energy sector putting all sectors and technologies on equal footing shows that a fuel tax reform makes that it is not cost efficient to require large co 2 emission reductions in the transport sector and that traditional car technologies will continue to dominate the car market in 2020 2030

the theory of human capital revisited on the interaction of general and specific investments human capital theory distinguishes between training in general usage and firm specific skills becker 1964 argues that employers will only invest in specific training not general training when labour markets are competitive the article reconsiders becker s theory using essentially his framework we show that there exists an incentive complementarity between employer sponsored general and specific training the possibility to provide specific training leads the employer to invest in general human capital conversely the latter reduces the hold up problem that arises with firm specific training we also consider the desirability of institutionalised training programmes and the virtues of breach penalties and discuss some empirical facts that could be explained by the theory

on renegotiation design a central concern of contract theory is to investigate departures from the first best paradigm in which rational agents could in principle achieve unrestrained efficiency through complete long term contingent contracts in order to take into account some of the observed limitations in real life contracts attention has been paid to informational problems one focus has been on asymmetries of information between contractors adverse selection and moral hazard have been used for example to analyze insurance problems labor contracts managerial incentives regulation of monopolies vertical restraints or the financial structure of firms see for example hartholmstrom 1987 for a survey of these issues attention has also been devoted to private information shared by the parties but unavailable to outsiders like courts that is observable but unverifiable information asymmetries of information between contractors introduce constraints which indeed most often prevent to achieve first best efficiency unfortunately this paradigm involves technical difficulties which explains why most contributions focus on unidimensional asymmetries and may leave some undeterminacies as to the form of optimal contracts e g if there are more than one asymmetry or the size of the inetliciencies there may for instance exist several equilibria which are more or less inefficient the last paradigm observable but unverifiable information is technically more convenient what is not clear however is the extent to which the presence of unverifiable information may prevent achieving first best

does britain or the united states have the right gasoline tax this paper develops an analytical framework to assess the second best optimal level of gasoline taxation taking into account unpriced pollution congestion and accident externalities as well as interactions with the broader fiscal system we provide calculations of the optimal taxes for the us and the uk under a variety of parameter scenarios under our central parameter values the second best optimal gasoline tax is 1 01 gal for the us and 1 34 gal for the uk current tax rates are much lower than this in the us and higher in the uk the calculations are moderately sensitive to alternative parameter assumptions the congestion externality is the largest component in both nations revenue raising needs also play a significant role as do accident externalities and local air pollution potential welfare gains from reducing the current uk tax rate are estimated at nearly one fourth the production cost of all gasoline used in the uk even larger gains could be achieved by switching to a tax on vehicle miles with equal revenue yield for the us the welfare gains from optimizing the gasoline tax are smaller but those from switching to an optimal tax on vehicle miles are very large

regulation by prices quantities or both a review of instrument choice choosing appropriate policy instruments is an important part of successful regulation once objectives are agreed and suitable targets adopted policy makers can employ command and control regulation and or economic instruments and choose between fixing a price or a quantity this paper examines the relative advantages of price quantity and hybrid instruments according to their efficiency under uncertainty the trade off between credible commitment and flexibility implementation international considerations and political economy various illustrations of the theory are provided with two detailed applications to climate change and transport policy specifically congestion and safety pricing

climate policies for road transport revisited ii closing the policy gap with cap and trade current policies in the road transport sector fail to deliver consistent and efficient incentives for greenhouse gas abatement see companion article by creutzig et al in press market based instruments such as cap and trade systems close this policy gap and complement traditional policies that are required where specific market failures arise even in presence of strong existing non market policies cap and trade delivers additional abatement and efficiency by incentivizing demand side abatement options this paper analyzes generic design options and economic impacts of including the european road transport sector into the eu ets suitable points of regulation are up and midstream in the fuel chain to ensure effectiveness cover all emissions and avoid double counting efficiency incentivize all abatement options and low transaction costs based on year 2020 marginal abatement cost curves from different models and current eu climate policy objectives we show that in contrast to conventional wisdom road transport inclusion would not change the eu ets allowance price hence industrial carbon leakage induced by adding road transport to the eu ets may be less important than previously estimated

specific investments holdup and the outside option principle according to the outside option principle the holdup problem can be solved when the non investor has a binding outside option the investor then becomes residual claimant creating efficient investment incentives this paper reports about an experiment designed to test this we find that when the outside option is binding investment levels fall short of the efficient level but holdup is less of a problem than predicted when the outside option is non binding

a new robustness analysis for climate policy evaluations a cge application for the eu 2020 targets this paper introduces a new method for stochastic sensitivity analysis for computable general equilibrium cge model based on gauss quadrature and applies it to check the robustness of a large scale climate policy evaluation the revised version of the gauss quadrature approach to sensitivity analysis reduces computations considerably vis a vis the commonly applied monte carlo methods this allows for a stochastic sensitivity analysis also for large scale models and multi dimensional changes of parameters in the application an impact assessment of eu2020 climate policy we focus on sectoral elasticities that are part of the basic parameters of the model and have been recently determined by econometric estimation alongside with standard errors the impact assessment is based on the large scale cge model pace we show the applicability of the gauss quadrature approach and confirm the robustness of the impact assessment with the pace model the variance of the central model outcomes is smaller than their mean by order four to eight depending on the aggregation level i e aggregate variables such as gdp show a smaller variance than sectoral output

supply network capacity planning for semiconductor manufacturing with uncertain demand and correlation in demand considerations abstract a semiconductor supply network involves many expensive steps which have to be executed to serve global markets the complexity of global capacity planning combined with the large capital expenditures to increase factory capacity makes it important to incorporate optimization methodologies for cost reduction and long term planning the typical view of a semiconductor supply network consists of layers for wafer fab sort assembly test and demand centers we present a two stage stochastic integer programming formulation to model a semiconductor supply network the model makes strategic capacity decisions i e build factories or outsource while accounting for the uncertainties in demand for multiple products we use the model not only to analyze how variability in demand affects the make buy decisions but also to investigate how the correlation between demands of different products affects these strategic decisions finally we demonstrate the value of incorporating demand uncertainty into a decision making scheme

marginal abatement costs of co2 emission reductions geographical flexibility and concrete ceilings an assessment using the poles model abstract the kyoto protocol envisage the setting up of flexibility mechanisms allowing annex b countries to fulfil their commitments to reducing greenhouse gases with respect for the principle of economic efficiency the current negotiations relate in particular to the possibility of setting up a system of tradable emissions permits for annex b countries and also of introducing ceilings to trade this paper analyses the stakes and economic potential of adopting this instrument both for those countries that made commitments in kyoto and for developing countries it is based on a formal approach that allows for a consistent framework of analysis the emission permit market is in fact simulated on the basis of a reference scenario and of marginal abatement cost curves and estimated by the poles model after analysing these marginal abatement cost curves and comparing them with those produced by other models we explore two different configurations for a competitive market a market limited to the annex b countries and a world market the results produced by the model show that widening the market to include developing countries is more effective than the annex b market solution it reduces the cost of implementing kyoto for oecd countries and at the same time allows the countries of the south to benefit from selling the permits this research also shows that introducing restrictions on exchanges for annex b countries could have a counter productive redistribution effect with the ethical argument that underlies that particular measure

on the merit of equal pay performance manipulation and incentive setting abstract work performance is often difficult to assess thus leaving room for manipulation of commonly used metrics we created a laboratory workplace in which we can precisely assess both work performance along with manipulation activities using two independent experiments we show that whenever pay for performance is used manipulation is pervasive leading to both a waste of organizational resources and a weakening of incentives by contrast paying organizational members equally effectively deters manipulation attempts leading to higher organizational production

optimal emission pricing in the presence of international spillovers decomposing leakage and terms of trade motives abstract carbon leakage provides an efficiency argument for differentiated emission prices in favor of emission intensive and trade exposed sectors under unilateral climate policy however differential emission pricing can be used as a beggar thy neighbor policy to exploit terms of trade adopting an optimal tax framework we propose a method to decompose the leakage and terms of trade motives for emission price differentiation we employ our method for the quantitative impact assessment of unilateral climate policy based on empirical data we find that the leakage motive yields only small efficiency gains compared to uniform emission pricing likewise the terms of trade motive has rather limited potential for strategic burden shifting we conclude that in many cases the simple first best rule of uniform emission pricing remains a practical guideline for unilateral climate policy design

when can carbon abatement policies increase welfare the fundamental role of distorted factor markets abstract this paper employs analytical and numerical models to assess the welfare effects of a revenue neutral carbon tax and nonauctioned carbon emissions permits taking into account preexisting tax distortions in factor markets the presence of preexisting taxes significantly raises the general equilibrium costs of both policies this cost increase is much greater under emissions permits since this policy does not generate revenues to reduce distortionary taxes under our central estimates emissions permits cannot increase welfare unless environmental damages exceed about 18 per ton of carbon in contrast an appropriately scaled carbon tax is welfare improving so long as environmental damages are positive

intra union flexibility of non ets emission reduction obligations in the european union the eu proposal on greenhouse gas emission reduction has 28 targets for 2020 an eu wide one for co2 emissions covered by the european trading system ets and one target for non ets emissions per member state implementation is more expensive than needed i consider three alternative proposals to reduce costs in the irish proposal member states can purchase ets permits to offset excess non ets emissions in the polish proposal member states can sell excess non ets emissions in the ets in the swedish proposal member states can trade their non ets allocations i compare these alternatives to the default policy no flexibility outside the ets and the cost effective solution full flexibility i calibrate a simple model to the results of the eu impact assessment which did not disclose all details and made odd assumptions the non ets allocation exceeds the projected emissions for three member states the alternative flexibility mechanisms would be used to only a limited extent but would cut the costs of meeting the target the swedish and polish proposals come closest to the cost effective solution because of the hot air the irish proposal performs best if there are negative surprises in either abatement costs or emissions the swedish proposal will become policy

on the relation between asset ownership and specific investments experimental results are presented for a simplified version of hart s 1995 theory of the firm theory predicts that investment levels remain constant when investors no trade pay offs increase if these pay offs are threat points while they may decrease when no trade pay offs are outside options our results support these predictions in a relative sense average investment levels exceed the predicted level actual investment behaviour is consistent with the outcomes of the bargaining stage the play of the game is supported by a reciprocity mechanism in which non investors consider higher investment levels as fair behaviour which deserves a reward investors anticipate this

a cost benefit analysis of the eu 20 20 2020 package the european commission did not publish a cost benefit analysis for its 2020 climate package this paper fills that gap comparing the marginal costs and benefits of greenhouse gas emission reduction the uncertainty about the marginal costs of climate change is large and skewed and estimates partly reflect ethical choices e g the discount rate the 2010 carbon price in the eu emissions trading system can readily be justified by a cost benefit analysis emission reduction is not expensive provided that policy is well designed a condition not met by planned eu policy it is probably twice as expensive as needed costing one in ten years of economic growth the eu targets for 2020 are unlikely to meet the benefit cost test for a standard discount rate 3 pure rate of time preference the benefit cost ratio is rather poor 1 30 so that benefits need to be very much higher or costs very much lower than typically assumed to justify the 2020 targets only a very low discount rate 0 prtp would justify the 20 emission reduction target for 2020

marginal abatement cost curves for policy recommendation a method for energy system analysis abstract the transport sector is seen as one of the key factors for driving future energy consumption and greenhouse gas ghg emissions in order to rank possible measures marginal abatement cost curves have become a tool to graphically represent the relationship between abatement costs and emission reduction this paper demonstrates how to derive marginal abatement cost curves for well to wheel ghg emissions of the transport sector considering the full energy provision chain and the interlinkages and interdependencies within the energy system presented marginal abatement cost curves visualize substitution effects between measures for different marginal mitigation costs the analysis makes use of an application of the energy system model generator times for south africa times geeco for the example of gauteng province this study exemplary shows that the transport sector is not the first sector to address for cost efficient reduction of ghg emissions however the analysis also demonstrates that several options are available to mitigate transport related ghg emissions at comparable low marginal abatement costs this methodology can be transferred to other economic sectors as well as to other regions in the world to derive cost efficient ghg reduction strategies

the eu decarbonisation roadmap 2050 what way to walk we carry out a detailed cge computable general equilibrium analysis of the eu decarbonisation roadmap 2050 on a macroeconomic and on a sectoral level herein we study a reference scenario that implements existing eu policies as well as 3 unilateral and 3 global climate action scenarios we identify global climate action with international emissions trading and the full equalization of co2 prices across all eu sectors as a reasonable policy option to avoid additional costs of the decarbonisation roadmap to a large extent this policy option may include cdm clean development mechanism in the sense of where flexibility in an extended form if there are countries without emissions caps moreover we identify diverse sectoral effects in terms of output investment emissions and international competitiveness we conclude that the successful realization of the eu decarbonisation roadmap probably requires a wise and joint consideration of technology policy design and sectoral aspects

the fundamentals of the future international emissions trading system the study aims to analyze the sectoral marginal abatements cost curves for a number of eu countries as well as to examine the efficiency aspects and the economic impacts for the major sectors of the ets under different carbon market configurations in 2010 and 2020 to produce a consistent and realistic assessment we employ sources such as ghg national inventories naps and poles world energy model to constitute the sectoral base year and 2010 2020 emission levels in different countries and regions we then use the market analysis tool aspen which enables to derive supply and demand from sectoral maccs produced with the poles model and to evaluate the economic impacts on the carbon market participants the paper shows that in compliance with the kyoto targets the benefits of an enlarged carbon market are significant since more than 50 of the abatement in the short term have to be achieved in ets sectors which may indeed use cdm or ji credits a second major conclusion is that in 2020 the new flexibility margins provided by the adjustment of investments in new capacities compensate for the increase in pressure towards stronger emission reductions this reduces the relative importance of the enlarged carbon market

analysis of the eu policy package on climate change and renewables abstract in 2009 the eu decided to reduce greenhouse gas emissions at least by 20 in 2020 compared to 1990 and to supply 20 of energy needs by 2020 from renewable energy sources this paper uses an energy model coupled with a non co 2 greenhouse gas model to assess the range of policy options that were debated to meet both targets policy options include trading of renewable targets carbon trading in power plants and industry and the use of the clean development mechanism to improve cost efficiency the models also examined fairness by analysing the distribution of emission reduction in the non emission trading sector the distribution of co 2 allowances in the emission trading sector and the reallocation of renewable targets across member states the overall costs of meeting both targets range from 0 4 to 0 6 of gdp in 2020 for the eu as a whole the redistribution mechanisms employed significantly improve fairness compared to a cost effective solution

the eu 20 20 2020 targets an overview of the emf22 assessment three computable general equilibrium models are used to estimate the economic implications of a stylized version of eu climate policy if implemented at the lowest possible cost the 20 emissions reduction would lead to a welfare loss of 0 5 2 0 by 2020 second best policies increase costs a policy with two carbon prices one for the ets one for the non ets could increase costs by up to 50 a policy with 28 carbon prices one for the ets one each for each member state could increase costs by another 40 the renewables standard could raise the costs of emissions reduction by 90 overall the inefficiencies in policy lead to a cost that is 100 125 too high the models differ greatly in the detail of their results the ets non ets split may have a negligible impact on welfare while the renewables standard may even improve welfare the models agree however that the distortions introduced by total eu package imply a substantial welfare loss over and above the costs needed to meet the climate target the marginal total and excess costs reported here are notably higher than those in the impact assessment of the european commission

renewable energy sector in belarus a review abstract belarus by faces broad needs for energy security enhancement energy diversification and improvements in the state of the environment being the 13th largest importer of natural gas for energy by has very limited energy resources of its own maximum reduction of energy imports is among the strategic tasks of raising the efficiency of belarus economy the task fulfillment is possible through creation of a national infrastructure conductive to increasing the share of local and renewable sources of energy res in heat and power energy production by s geographic location has several advantages for extensive use of most of the renewable energy re and bioenergy sources however information on existing re sector for the second largest landlocked country in europe is still hardly awailable for a wider audience of researchers working in the field of economic environmental political planning and social aspects of energy supply in global proportions the review on the renewable energy sector in by so far has tried to give the background for res to describe their occurrence and conditions for using them leading up to a discussion of the role of renewable energy in current and future energy systems depending on a path of economic transition social values availability and economic rules used to judge the viability of competing solutions to ensure a simple comprehensible and transparent presentation of the different available options of using re for the provision of heat and power the individual chapters describing the various renewable energy potentials and contribution options have been similarly structured whenever possible and sensible

hold up with a vengeance when contracts are incomplete or unenforceable inefficient levels of investment may occur because of hold up if individuals care for negative reciprocity these problems may be reduced as revenge becomes a credible threat however negative reciprocity has this effect only when the investor holds the rights of control of the investment proceeds we explore this issue analytically deriving predictions for hold up games which differ as regards assignment of rights of control we also test and support these predictions in an experiment

costs of reducing global carbon emissions po rojecting the costs of reducing carbon emissions is extremely important and exceedingly difficult such projections are an integral component of cost benefit analyses of alternative policies for example for the global climate policy analysis described by william nordhaus in this symposium moreover the nature of the climate change problem dictates that costs be incurred long before benefits can be realized or accurately measured consequently the political spotlight predictably focuses on the cost estimates whenever specific policy options are contemplated projecting the costs of reducing carbon emissions is difficult because many assumptions must be made about how the world will evolve over a very long period of time with and without a control program typically some of these assumptions like population growth are taken from outside sources other factors like the response of energy demand to changes in economic output or energy prices are the result of modeling the behavior of economic actors in response to exogenous stimuli considerable uncertainty exists about both the exogenous factors and the best way to model the behavioral responses the global nature of the climate change problem adds yet another complication to the cost analysis scientists have concluded that it is the global concentration of carbon in the atmosphere that influences climate moreover since carbon in the atmosphere gets mixed more or less uniformly emissions anywhere change concentrations everywhere but with a long lead time current global carbon emissions are estimated to be only about 4 percent of the stock of co2 in the atmosphere attributable to human activity and about

white certificates for energy efficiency improvement with energy taxes a theoretical economic model in this paper we analyze interactions of two energy policy instruments namely a white certificates whc scheme as an innovative policy instrument for energy efficiency improvement and energy taxation these policy instruments differ in terms of objectives and final impacts on the price of electricity we examine the effect of these policy instruments in the electricity sector focusing on electricity producers and suppliers in a competitive market using microeconomic theory we identify synergies between market players and demonstrate the total effect on the electricity price when suppliers internalize the behaviour of producers in their decisions this model refers to an ideal market situation of full liberalization the cases we examine consist of electricity producers with and without a carbon tax electricity suppliers with and without an electricity tax and with whc obligations furthermore we present a parallel implementation of whc for electricity suppliers with carbon tax on electricity producers and an electricity tax with whc obligations to electricity suppliers we demonstrate differences in optimization behaviour of producers and suppliers based on a couple of cases of whc with carbon and electricity taxes various positive and negative effects of both schemes in terms of target achievement and efficiency are present which can lead to an added value of such schemes in the policy mix although uncertainties of outcomes are quite high a basic finding is that in a merit order several parameters can increase final electricity price after the implementation of different policies demand for electricity and electricity supply cost at a large scale and then follow the level of level of obligation for energy saving level of penalty and price of whc representing the marginal costs of energy saving projects the impact magnitude of parameters depends on the values chosen and on the initial position of suppliers i e if their actual behaviour deviates from full compliance with targets

the impact of tax reform on new car purchases in ireland we examine the impact of recent tax reforms in ireland on private car transport and its greenhouse gas emissions a carbon tax was introduced on fuels and purchase vehicle registration and ownership motor taxes were switched from engine size to potential emissions we use a demographic model of the car stock by age size and fuel and a car purchase model that reflects the heterogeneous distribution of mileage and usage costs across various engine sizes the model shows a dramatic shift from petrol to diesel cars particularly for large engines the same pattern is observed in the latest data on car sales this has a substantial impact on tax revenue as car owners shift to the lower tax rates the tax burden has shifted from car ownership to car use and that the overall tax burden on private car transport falls as diesel engines are more fuel efficient than petrol engines carbon dioxide emissions fall modestly or if we consider the rebound effect of travel costs on mileage minimally from the perspective of the revenue the costs per tonne of carbon dioxide avoided are very high

transaction costs institutional rigidities and the size of the clean development mechanism transaction costs and institutional rigidities will reduce the attractiveness of the kyoto protocol flexibility mechanisms compared to domestic greenhouse gas abatement options the clean development mechanism cdm in particular is likely to entail considerable costs of baseline development project registration verification and certification the activities implemented jointly pilot phase and the prototype carbon fund programme give indications about these costs there is evidence that projects with high implementation costs have high transaction costs as well moreover cdm projects have to be approved by host country institutions and so far only a small share of host countries has been able to set up these institutions several of the larger host countries intend to only approve projects if the market price is above a certain threshold some governments will also levy fees to finance costs of approval bodies we assess these issues using a quantitative model of the kyoto protocol permit market we conclude that while changes in demand from annex b countries remain the crucial factor the size of the cdm will depend to a significant degree on transaction costs and institutional barriers in host countries

the applicability of marginal abatement cost approach a comprehensive review abstract the marginal abatement cost mac methodology is widely used in climate change policies policy makers rely on mac to assess feasible strategies and related costs to achieve emission reduction goals this paper introduces a variety of mac methodologies aiming at solving diverse problems which utilizes various calculable logic thus producing different results and implications this study applies a mind mapping method to capture differentiation of mac methods and systematically classify mac methodologies the applicability path analysis was proposed based on principles such as stakeholder type decision making objectives cost concept strategy mode and information scope our goal is to assess the applicability of different methodologies to reduce misuse by policy makers and to serve as a guide for subsequent research which might prompt and lead to the derivation of more consequential results in future studies the results of this study suggest that the complex method is not always better than the simplified method because policy makers are required to select the appropriate method according to the type of information needed it may even be suggested that mac could be reliable by ranking relative value of options compared with baseline rather than focusing on the absolute value of individual measures

sensitivity of modeling results to technological and regional details the case of italy s carbon mitigation policy model differences in technological and geographical scales are common but their contributions to uncertainties have not been systematically quantified in the climate policy literature this paper carries out a systematic assessment on the sensitivity of computable general equilibrium models to technological and geographical scales in evaluating the economic impacts of carbon mitigation policies in particular we examine the impacts of sub national details and technological details of power generation on the estimate of carbon price and economic cost taking italy as an example we find that the estimation for carbon price and the economic cost of a de carbonization pathway by means of a model with technological and regional details can be lower than a model without such details by up to 40 additionally the effect of representing regional details appears to be far more important than the effect of representing the details of electricity technology in both the estimated carbon prices and the estimated economic impacts our results for italy highlight the importance of modeling uncertainties of these two key assumptions which should be appropriately acknowledged when applying cge models for policy impact assessment our conclusions can be generalized to different countries and policy scenarios not in terms of absolute numbers but in terms of economic explanations in particular intra national trade and the sub national sectoral technological specialization are important variables for understanding the economic dynamics behind these outcomes

a stochastic dynamic programming approach for multi site capacity planning in tft lcd manufacturing under demand uncertainty abstract the study focuses on the dynamic multi site capacity planning problem in the thin film transistor liquid crystal display tft lcd industry under stochastic demand capacity planning refers to the process of simultaneously implementing a robust capacity allocation plan and capacity expansion policy across multiple sites against stochastic demand in addition the demand situation in tft lcd manufacturing follows markov properties in which the correlations of the demand variations in the consecutive periods are high and the demand status in the next period is stochastically determined by the present one therefore this study constructs a stochastic dynamic programming sdp model with an embedded linear programming lp to generate a capacity planning policy as the demand in each period is revealed and updated using the backward induction algorithm the sdp model considers several capacity expansion and budget constraints to determine a robust and dynamic capacity expansion policy in response to newly available demand information the lp model then considers numerous tft lcd practical characteristics and constraints to decide a capacity allocation plan and generate a one period immediate reward used by the optimality recursion equation of the sdp model numerical results are also illustrated to prove the feasibility and robustness of the proposed sdp model compared to the traditional deterministic capacity planning model currently applied by the industry

automobile externalities and policies this paper discusses the nature and magnitude of externalities associated with automobile use including local and global pollution oil dependence traffic congestion and traffic accidents it then discusses current federal policies affecting these externalities including fuel taxes fuel economy and emissions standards and alternative fuel policies summarizing insofar as possible the welfare effects of those policies finally we discuss emerging pricing policies including congestion tolls and insurance reform and summarize the appropriate combination of policies to address automobile externalities

assessment of european union transition scenarios with a special focus on the issue of carbon leakage this paper uses the model gemini e3 to simulate and assess the transition scenario to 2020 framed by the european union in its energy climate directive and it raises several issues in this connection after a brief description of the model the paper presents the results of the scenarios mainly the values of the major indicators of carbon price both in the ets and in non ets sectors and the welfare cost of the eu policy under the various configurations considered while it is independent of the scenario in the ets sector in the non ets sector the value of carbon is very sensitive to the provisions of the directive and in particular the option of resorting to the flexibility mechanisms the welfare cost also varies significantly according to scenarios and its value for the entire eu is more than double in the scenario closest to the directive as compared to the least cost one the paper also addresses the very sensitive issue of carbon leakage and argues in favor of a new concept of net leakage the analysis shows that while carbon leakage may affect some specific sectors at the aggregate level it does not represent a real concern with a magnitude of at most a few percent of ghg abatement by annex b countries

a tale of two market failures technology and environmental policy abstract market failures associated with environmental pollution interact with market failures associated with the innovation and diffusion of new technologies these combined market failures provide a strong rationale for a portfolio of public policies that foster emissions reduction as well as the development and adoption of environmentally beneficial technology both theory and empirical evidence suggest that the rate and direction of technological advance is influenced by market and regulatory incentives and can be cost effectively harnessed through the use of economic incentive based policy in the presence of weak or nonexistent environmental policies investments in the development and diffusion of new environmentally beneficial technologies are very likely to be less than would be socially desirable positive knowledge and adoption spillovers and information problems can further weaken innovation incentives while environmental technology policy is fraught with difficulties a long term view suggests a strategy of experimenting with policy approaches and systematically evaluating their success

how to deal with the rebound effect a policy oriented approach policy makers and environmental agencies have echoed concerns brought forward by academics about the need to address the rebound effect for achieving absolute energy and environmental decoupling however such concerns have generally not been translated into tangible policy action the reasons behind this inaction are not fully understood and much remains unknown about the status of the rebound effect issue on the policy agenda and policy pathways available such knowledge gaps may hamper the development of effective policies to address this issue in this paper we examine the extent to and ways in which the rebound effect is considered in policy documents and analyse thirteen specific policy pathways for rebound mitigation the effectiveness of the pathways is scrutinised and conclusions are offered to mitigate rebound effects the main policy conclusions of the paper are that an appropriate policy design and policy mix are key to avoiding undesired outcomes such as the creation of additional rebound effects and environmental trade offs from the discussion economy wide cap and trade systems as well as energy and carbon taxes when designed appropriately emerge as the most effective policies in setting a ceiling for emissions and addressing energy use across the economy

stochastic carbon sinks for combating carbon dioxide emissions in the eu abstract this paper carries out numerical calculations on the potential of carbon sinks in the eu emissions trading scheme ets and national commitments under conditions of stochastic carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and carbon sequestration by forests chance constraint programming is used to analyze the role of stochastic carbon sinks for national and eu wide compliance costs the analytical results show that the inclusion of the carbon sink option can reduce costs for low enough marginal cost and risk discount but also that costless carbon sinks as by products from forestry are not part of a cost effective solution under a high reliability concern cost savings are reduced due to risk discounting under a reliability concern in particular when assigning chebyshev s inequality as compared with a normal probability distribution it is also shown that the supply of forest sinks on the market depends on the differences in marginal abatement cost between the trading and the non trading sectors and in risk discounting between achievements of the ets cap and the national commitment relatively low marginal abatement cost in the non trading sector and high risk discounting of national commitment achievements increase the supply of sinks in the market and hence reduces the equilibrium price the empirical application illustrates the importance of risk discounting for the magnitude of cost savings obtained from introducing forest carbon sinks in the eu ets and national commitments

revenue raising vs other approaches to environmental protection the critical significance of pre existing tax distortions using analytical and numerical general equilibrium models we show that preexisting factor taxes produce a tax interaction effect that increases the costs of pollution taxes and quotas under policies that raise revenue and recycle it through cuts in marginal factor tax rates this effect is partially offset by a revenue recycling effect grandfathered pollution quotas such as those used under the 1990 clean air act amendments to regulate electric utilities so2 emissions do not benefit from this offset preexisting taxes raise this regulation s cost by over 70 more than half of this additional cost could be avoided by auctioning quotas and exploiting the revenue recycling effect

optimal departures from marginal cost pricing focuses on departures from marginal cost pricing optimal allocation or resources level of tax revenue that will be collected by the government theorems developed for resource allocation ebsco