do greens drive hummers or hybrids environmental ideology as a determinant of consumer choice this paper uses several california data sets to test for differences in consumption patterns between greens and browns a person s environmentalism is rarely observed in consumer data sets in california a community s share of green party registered voters is a viable proxy for community environmentalism environmentalists are more likely to commute by public transit purchase hybrid vehicles and consume less gasoline than non environmentalists

utility covariances and context effects in conjoint mnp models experimental conjoint choice analysis is among the most frequently used methods for measuring and analyzing consumer preferences the data from such experiments have been typically analyzed with the multinomial logit mnl model however there are several problems associated with the standard mnl model because it is based on the assumption that the error terms of the underlying random utilities are independent across alternatives choice sets and subjects the multinomial probit model mnp is well known to alleviate this assumption of independence of the error terms accounting for covariances in utilities in modeling choice experiments with the mnp is important because variation of the coefficients in the choice model may occur due to context effects previous research has shown that subjects utilities for alternatives depend on the choice context that is the particular set of alternatives evaluated simonson and tversky s tradeoff contrast principle describes the effect of the choice context on attribute importance and patterns of choice they distinguish local contrast effects which are caused by the alternatives in the offered set only and background contrast effects which are due to the influence of alternatives previously considered in choice experiments these effects are hypothesized to cause correlations in the utilities of alternatives within and across choice sets respectively the purpose of this study is to develop an mnp model for conjoint choice experiments this model is important for a more detailed study of choice patterns in those experiments in developing the mnp model for conjoint choice experiments several hurdles need to be taken related to the identification of the model and to the prediction of holdout profiles to overcome those problems we propose a random coefficients rc model that assumes a multivariate normal distribution of the regression coefficients with a rank one factor structure on the covariance matrix of these regression coefficients the parameters in this covariance matrix can be used to identify which attributes and levels of attributes are potentional sources of dependencies between the alternatives and choice sets in a conjoint choice experiment we present several versions of this model moreover for each of these models we allow utilities to be either correlated or independent across choice sets the independent probit ip model is used as a benchmark given the dimensionality of the integrations involved in computing the choice probabilities the models are estimated with simulated likelihood where simulations are used to approximate the integrals involved in the choice probabilities we apply and compare the models in two conjoint choice experiments in both applications the random coefficients mnp model that allows choices in different choice sets to be correlated rc displays superior fit and predictive validity compared with all other models we hypothesize that the difference in fit occurs because the rc model accommodates correlations among choice sets that are caused by background contrast effects whereas the model that treats choice sets as independent irc accounts for local contrast effects only the irc model shows superior model fit compared with the ip model but its predictions are worse than those of the ip model we find differences in the importance of local and background contrast effects for choice sets containing different numbers of alternatives the background contrast effect may be stronger for smaller choice sets whereas the local contrast effect may be stronger for bigger choice sets we illustrate the differences in simulated market shares that are obtained from the rc irc and ip models in three hypothetical situations product modification product line extension and the introduction of a me too brand in all of those situations substantially different market shares are predicted by the three models which illustrates the extent to which erroneous predictions may be obtained from the misspecified irc and ip models

fertilization under uncertainty an analysis based on producer yield expectations optimal nitrogen fertilizer levels are computed for a sample of texas coastal bend grain sorghum producers based on their assessed subjective conditional yield and price probabilities utility measures and cost information producers mean yield expectations were substantially greater than experimental yield response and their perceptions of the effects of nitrogen on yield variability were contrary to usual characterization of nitrogen as a risk increasing input optimal fertilizer levels based on expected utility maximization represent actual fertilizer use somewhat better than those based on expected profit maximization however both calculated levels were high relative to actual fertilizer use

disentangling the effects of policy and payment consequentiality and risk attitudes on stated preferences abstract incentivizing respondents to truthfully reveal their preferences in stated preference surveys requires that they believe their survey responses can influence decisions related to the outcome in question policy consequentiality and that they will have to bear their share of the coercive cost if the outcome is implemented payment consequentiality we investigate the effects of these two aspects of perceived consequentiality on stated preferences in a field survey concerning renewable energy development in poland we find that beliefs in policy and payment consequentiality strengthen the respondents interest in having the project implemented however policy consequentiality decreases and payment consequentiality increases their sensitivity to the project cost which respectively increases and decreases their willingness to pay for the project we conclude that the two aspects of consequentiality should be addressed separately additionally we inquire the theoretically speculated links between the respondents perceptions of policy and payment consequentiality and their risk attitudes and we find no significant relationship

the compromise effect in action lessons from a restaurant s menu the compromise effect refers to individuals tendency to choose intermediate options its existence has been demonstrated in a large number of hypothetical choice experiments this paper uses field data from a specialties restaurant to investigate the existence and strength of the compromise effect in a natural environment despite the presence of many factors that potentially weaken the compromise effect e g a very large choice set the opportunity to choose familiar options we find evidence for it both in descriptive statistics and regression analyses options which become a compromise after a change in the choice set gain on average five percent in market share we also find that the compromise effect is especially pronounced in groups while for single customers it is statistically insignificant

using extremeness aversion to fight obesity policy implications of context dependent demand this article illustrates how the compromise effect alters consumers selection of soft drinks using three within subject studies we show that extremeness aversion and price insensitivity cause consumers to increase their consumption when the smallest drink size is dropped or when a larger drink size is added to a set as a result rational firms find it best to drop the smaller sizes and add a larger size thus increasing overall consumption after estimating each individual s demand as a function of price and drink size availability policy experiments demonstrate how it is possible to reduce soft drink consumption without additional taxation

estimating risk aversion coefficients for dry land wheat irrigated corn and dairy producers in kansas the risk attitudes of dry land wheat irrigated corn and dairy producers in kansas are examined using the nonlinear mean standard deviation approach results of analyses indicated that dryland wheat and dairy producers are characterized by increasing absolute and increasing relative risk aversion while irrigated corn producers are characterized by constant absolute and increasing relative risk aversion both crop enterprises exhibited constant returns to scale technology while the dairy enterprise exhibited decreasing returns to scale gross farm income was significant and positively related to relative risk aversion

extremeness aversion and attribute balance effects in choice consumers often make decisions based on the extremeness of choice alternatives prior research has argued that extremeness aversion is a function of the relational properties of choice alternatives and that the middle option defined such that its attribute values are between the values of the other alternatives is always viewed as the least extreme compromise option the attribute balance hypothesis advanced in this article extends prior research demonstrating that extremeness aversion is also a function of the dispersion of attribute values within each alternative in particular it is argued that an option with equal attribute ratings will be perceived as the compromise alternative even when it is not the middle option data from three studies support this prediction offering converging evidence for the attribute balance effect in different decision contexts theoretical implications of the findings are discussed in the context of the extant extremeness aversion research

the impact of government policy on preference for nevs the evidence from china to reduce gasoline consumption and emissions the chinese government has introduced a series of preferential policies to encourage the purchase of new energy vehicles nevs however enthusiasm for the private purchase of nevs appears to be very low this timely paper addresses the need for an empirical study to explore this phenomenon by identifying purchase motivations of potential nev consumers and examining the impact of government policies introduced to promote nevs in china a questionnaire survey was carried out the acceptance of nevs is measured in three different logistic models the willingness of consumers to purchase nevs the purchasing time and the acceptable price the results showed that financial benefits performance attributes environmental awareness and psychological needs are the four most important factors influencing consumers acceptance of nevs among these performance attributes rather than financial benefits are the most important indicator the moderating effect of government policies to relations between purchasing intention time and price is not strong as respected while the policy implications are clear that the public awareness of government policy functions as a moderator in the process of acceptance these findings could give some hints to the government to make better nev industry policy

incorporating risk in production analysis risk is the farmer s perennial problem unfortunately agricultural economists have made little progress in analyzing or measuring production risk in ways that provide useful information for farm management therefore it is fair to say that the social returns to existing research on production risk are probably low it is from this perspective that i will discuss incorporating risk in production analysis my purpose is not to survey the literature or to catalog all the ways risk concepts have been incorporated in production models rather i intend to evaluate critically some of the basic concepts and approaches in the literature and to indicate the directions i believe research must take to arrive at a paradigm for incorporating risk in production analysis that could yield higher social returns in my view the conventional conceptual framework used for risk analysis has not led agricultural economists to ask the most important questions about the effects risk has on agricultural decision making the extension of the static neoclassical production model to incorporate price and production uncertainty has led agricultural economists to rationalize observed behavior in terms of the arrow pratt risk aversion concept this approach has led in turn to qualitative comparative static theorems which are appealing to theorists but have little relation to the decision problems farmers face to increase the relevance of their models and methods i believe agricultural economists need to understand specifically how risk affects agricultural production this in turn will suggest how risk affects agricultural decision making and why farmers are or should be concerned with it my analysis of these issues leads me to discount the hypothesis that risk matters primarily because of the psychic disutility it causes rather i hypothesize that risk matters primarily because production is a dynamic phenomenon and therefore production and price uncertainty affect expected productivity and expected income i hypothesize that these firstorder effects are why farmers are and should be concerned with risk the analysis of dynamic uncertain models shows that farmers optimal decisions are affected by risk whether they are risk neutral or risk averse this suggests that dynamic risk neutral models may be more useful than conventional static risk averse models for understanding the role production risk plays in farm management

quantity discount dependent consumer preferences and competitive nonlinear pricing abstract producers of consumer packaged goods often offer several package sizes of the same product and charge a lower unit price for a larger size in this article the authors investigate the quantity discount effect or the phenomenon that consumers derive transaction utility from the unit price difference between a small and a large package size of the same product the authors propose a modeling framework composed of a demand side model and a supply side model the empirical results suggest that quantity discount induced gains or losses have a significant impact on consumer buying behavior the authors also find a substantial amount of structural heterogeneity that is some consumers perceive quantity discounts as gains whereas others perceive quantity discounts as losses conversely the supply side analysis suggests that manufacturers in the empirical application do not consider quantity discount effects when setting prices through a series of policy experiments the authors show that by accou

overchoice and assortment type when and why variety backfires almost universally research and practice suggest that a brand that increases its product assortment or variety should benefit through increased market share in this paper we show this is not always the case we introduce the construct assortment type and demonstrate that the effect of assortment size on brand share is systematically moderated by assortment type we define an alignable assortment as a set of brand variants that differ along a single compensatory dimension such that choosing from that assortment only requires within attribute trade offs in contrast we define a nonalignable assortment as a set of brand variants that simultaneously vary along multiple noncompensatory dimensions demanding between attribute trade offs in turn we argue that an alignable assortment can efficiently meet the diverse tastes of consumers thereby increasing brand share but that a nonalignable assortment increases both the cognitive effort and the potential for regret faced by a consumer thereby decreasing brand share we term this effect overchoice across three studies we provide evidence of overchoice and tie the effect to the effort and regret brought about by nonalignability in the process we demonstrate that simplification of information presentation reversibility of choice and a reduction in underlying nonalignability serve to reduce or eliminate this effect

quality competition and environmental damage is there a role for network preferences abstract we consider from a theoretical and empirical viewpoint how network preferences of consumers which differ in their willingness to pay wtp for green goods affect the equilibrium configuration of a vertically differentiated duopoly when a cleaner firm competes against a dirtier rival we find that a trade off can emerge between emissions abatement and the catching up process of the dirtier firm can emerge in particular emissions decrease only when consumers with low wtp have network preferences still in this case only the cleaner firm has an incentive to improve its environmental quality along the quality ladder while the laggard firm is tied to its backward profile these theoretical predictions are empirically tested by exploiting the duality of italy s economy with high income citizens mainly concentrated in northern regions while low income citizens are largely located in the south we adopt a fixed effects spatial error model at the provincial level to relate variables on firms environmental management system with citizens environmental behaviour proxied by the recycling rate overall the empirical estimates are in line with the theoretical predictions from the empirical analysis it emerges that consumers environmental behaviour positively affects enterprises future environmental choices moreover firms have a stronger incentive to raise their environmental quality when low income consumers namely those buying dirtier variants internalise the network effect

analyzing korean consumers latent preferences for electricity generation sources with a hierarchical bayesian logit model in a discrete choice experiment generally consumers use electricity without considering the source the electricity was generated from since different energy sources exert varying effects on society it is necessary to analyze consumers latent preference for electricity generation sources the present study estimates korean consumers marginal utility and an appropriate generation mix is derived using the hierarchical bayesian logit model in a discrete choice experiment the results show that consumers consider the danger posed by the source of electricity as the most important factor among the effects of electricity generation sources additionally korean consumers wish to reduce the contribution of nuclear power from the existing 32 11 and increase that of renewable energy from the existing 4 32

could ralph nader s entrance and exit have helped al gore the impact of decoy dynamics on consumer choice abstract people are frequently faced with making a new choice decision after a preferred option becomes unavailable prior research on the attraction effect has demonstrated how the introduction of an option into a choice set increases the share of one of the original options the authors examine the related but previously unaddressed issue of whether the unexpected exit of an option from a choice set returns the choice shares of the original options to the status quo in a series of experiments they observe that when an option turns out to be unselectable following a choice problem in which it was selectable the choice shares of the remaining options are predictably different from those of a choice problem in which the option was unselectable from the start they also observe that this attraction effect due to the disappearance of a decoy is likely a consequence of changes in the importance of decision criteria they conclude with a discussion of the theoretical and managerial implications of the research

self control and incentives an analysis of multiperiod quota plans it is well known that individuals often fail to exert proper self control in organizational settings this can lead to reduced productivity and profits we use the literature on present biased preferences to model employees self control problems and examine how firms can design compensation plans to reduce the negative consequences of their employees self control problems our results suggest that firms can mitigate self control problems by delaying payment to the employees this can be achieved by using multiperiod quotas such as annual quotas to compensate employees for their cumulative performance although such plans are prevalent in the market there is little theoretical research that shows when multiperiod quota plans can be optimal the paper provides one potential explanation for the widespread use of such quota plans interestingly we find that such plans may be optimal despite the fact that they encourage more procrastination we also find that such plans lead to higher effort by the employees and can sometimes improve the welfare of not only the firm but also the employees

salience and consumer choice we present a theory of context dependent choice in which a consumer s attention is drawn to salient attributes of goods such as quality or price an attribute is salient for a good when it stands out among the good s attributes relative to that attribute s average level in the choice set or more broadly the choice context consumers attach disproportionately high weight to salient attributes and their choices are tilted toward goods with higher quality price ratios the model accounts for a variety of disparate evidence including decoy effects and context dependent willingness to pay it also suggests a novel theory of misleading sales

order in product customization decisions evidence from field experiments differentiated product models are predicated on the belief that a product s utility can be derived from the summation of utilities for its individual attributes in one framed field experiment and two natural field experiments we test this assumption by experimentally manipulating the order of attribute presentation in the product customization process of custom made suits and automobiles we find that order affects the design of a suit that people configure and the design and price of a car that people purchase by influencing the likelihood that they will accept the default option suggested by the firm

constructive consumer choice processes consumer decision making has been a focal interest in consumer research and consideration of current marketplace trends e g technological change an information explosion indicates that this topic will continue to be critically important we argue that consumer choice is inherently constructive due to limited processing capacity consumers often do not have well defined existing preferences but construct them using a variety of strategies contingent on task demands after describing constructive choice consumer decision tasks and decision strategies we provide an integrative framework for understanding constructive choice review evidence for constructive consumer choice in light of that framework and identify knowledge gaps that suggest opportunities for additional research

household willingness to pay for green electricity in urban and peri urban tigray northern ethiopia determinants and welfare effects abstract this paper set out to estimate household willingness to pay for green electric services and welfare gains attributed to such schemes for this purpose contingent valuation survey was conducted on 300 urban and peri urban households in northern ethiopia a bivariate probit model was used to elicit willingness to pay and analyze determinants of household willingness to pay on the other hand welfare gains were analyzed using consumer and producer surpluses the mean willingness to pay was estimated to be birr 12 5 0 66 usd per month per household for five years on top of monthly electricity bill among others income played positive role on willingness to pay while difference in willingness to pay behavior was observed between male and female headed households in addition distance to wood and charcoal alternative energy markets played encouraging role for willingness to pay results from the welfare analysis show that there is significant societal gain to be made both in terms of surplus for households and producers government if the previously untapped green electricity service was implemented the revenue producer surplus for the state would be instrumental in contributing to the state s endeavor to generate a much needed capital for investment in and expansion of renewable energy

market boundaries and product choice illustrating attraction and substitution effects what happens to the share of choices each item receives when the choice set boundaries are extended by adding a new item that is extremely good on one dimension but poor on the others first there is a substitution effect whereby the new item takes choice share mainly from similar items in the set second there is an attraction effect resulting in a general shift of preference toward the added item experimental studies show that choice patterns conflict with current theoretical and common sense ideas about the effect of added alternatives on choice

the effect of local consideration sets on global choice between lower price and higher quality a set of alternatives under consideration is often divided into subsets or local sets by some external e g product display format at the store or internal e g a decision rule factor we propose that the manner in which a global set of alternatives varying in price and quality is divided into local sets can have a systematic effect on consumer choice between a lower price alternative and a higher quality alternative three such effects are investigated 1 consumers who first choose from pairs of products a b b c a c and then choose from the set of all three products a b c are more likely to prefer the cheapest alternative than consumers who only choose from the complete set 2 the choice share of a low price low quality brand is greater when alternatives varying in price quality and features are displayed by brand i e each display presents different models of one brand as compared to a display by feature level i e each display presents comparable models of different brands and 3 consumers considering a pair of two option local sets each consisting of different brands and feature levels e g a feature enhanced model of a low quality brand vs a basic model of a high quality brand are more likely to select a feature enhanced model from the global set of four options than those who consider the same alternatives in other local set configurations or consider only the global set these predictions were supported in seven studies which also provided insights into the boundaries of the effects focusing on the paired comparison effect we discuss the theoretical and practical implications of the findings

the time vs money effect shifting product attitudes and decisions through personal connection the results of five field and laboratory experiments reveal a time versus money effect whereby activating time vs money leads to a favorable shift in product attitudes and decisions because time increases focus on product experience activating time vs money augments one s personal connection with the product thereby boosting attitudes and decisions however because money increases the focus on product possession the reverse effect can occur in cases where merely owning the product reflects the self i e for prestige possessions or for highly materialistic consumers the time versus money effect proves robust across implicit and explicit methods of construct activation

risk aversion versus expected profit maximization with a progressive income tax this article introduces the terms apparent or pseudo risk aversion to represent those situations where real risk aversion is falsely attributed simply because second and higher moments of random variables are arguments in a decision maker s objective function apparent risk aversion can occur when stochastic variables nonlinearly enter the objective function the progressive income tax structure is highlighted as a neglected but important source of apparent risk aversion such sources of apparent risk aversion should be recognized otherwise an incorrect level of risk aversion might be claimed or risk aversion might be claimed when risk neutrality prevails

adding asymmetrically dominated alternatives violations of regularity and the similarity hypothesis an asymmetrically dominated alternative is dominated by one item in the set but not by another adding such an alternative to a choice set can increase the probability of choosing the item that dominates it this result points to the inadequacy of many current choice models and suggests product line strategies that might not otherwise be intuitively plausible

the influence of serotonin deficiency on choice deferral and the compromise effect abstractpsychological and physiological states such as mood hunger stress and sleep deprivation are known to affect decision making processes and therefore crucially influence consumer behavior a possible biological mechanism underlying the observed variability of consumer behavior is the context sensitive variation in the levels of neuromodulators in the brain in a series of four experimental studies the authors pharmaceutically reduce the levels of the neurotransmitter serotonin in the brain to diminish the availability of subjects cognitive resources in doing so they study how serotonin brain levels influence 1 subjects tendency to avoid buying and 2 consumers preference for product options positioned as a compromise in a given choice set rather than for more extreme alternatives i e the compromise effect using realistic product choice scenarios in a binding decision framework they find that a reduction of brain serotonin levels leads to choice deferral and decreases the compromise

the cost of agricultural production risk abstract we examine the relative influence of preferences and technology on producers ex ante willingness to pay for a reduction in production risk a risk averse producer pays both an arrow pratt risk premium to stabilize income and a production premium to stabilize yield using soil nitrate risks as our motivating example we demonstrate that the production premium accounts for 40 85 of producers willingess to pay for risk reduction these results demonstrate the relative importance of technology over risk preferences when estimating the costs of agricultural production risk

purchasing intentions of chinese citizens on new energy vehicles how should one respond to current preferential policy in recent years china s environmental pollution and energy security issues have become increasingly more prominent as a result new energy vehicles nevs have been strongly supported by government s policy privilege but at this stage these preferential policies are facing updates and adjustments to meet the current development of nev industry and consumer demand of purchase this means that an understanding of the nev purchasing behavior in china what the current policy is and how to respond to its adjustment are of theoretical and practical significance for china s nev industry to this end a reliable scale is developed in this study to investigate the situation in seven chinese geographical regions and 22 provinces based on application of an extended theory of planned behavior model to the real situation a structural equation model is used to analyze the factors affecting the nev purchasing intentions of residents the results show that financial benefits infrastructure readiness environmental concerns and policy privileges have a positive impact on purchasing intention however the nev s cruising range does not based on the paper s findings we have discussed whether current subsidies and preferential policies reflect consumers potential purchase demand how to make subsidies more tangibly targeted and thereby present some proposals for manufacturing strategy under the influence of policy and demand of consumers

the role of explanations and need for uniqueness in consumer decision making unconventional choices based on reasons this research investigates the interaction between a very common task explaining decisions and an individual difference need for uniqueness nfu on buyer decision making we propose that explaining or providing reasons for decisions shifts the focus from the choice of options to the choice of reasons furthermore buyers who explain their decisions and have high nfu tend to select unconventional reasons and are consequently more likely to make unconventional choices these predictions were supported in a series of studies involving choices between conventional and less conventional options such as whether to switch to a brand on sale whether to select a compromise option and whether to accept a gamble with a possible loss the findings also indicate that the effects of providing reasons are not due to attempts to act rationally or to concerns about being evaluated three boundary conditions on the generalization that high nfu consumers who provide reasons tend to make unconventional choices we

random regret minimization exploration of a new choice model for environmental and resource economics this paper introduces the discrete choice model paradigm of random regret minimization rrm to the field of environmental and resource economics the rrm approach has been very recently developed in the context of travel demand modelling and presents a tractable regret based alternative to the dominant choice modelling paradigm based on random utility maximization theory rum theory we highlight how rrm based models provide closed form logit type formulations for choice probabilities that allow for capturing semi compensatory behaviour and choice set composition effects while being equally parsimonious as their utilitarian counterparts using data from a stated choice experiment aimed at identifying valuations of characteristics of nature parks we compare rrm based models and rum based models in terms of parameter estimates goodness of fit elasticities and consequential policy implications

me myself and my choices the influence of private self awareness on choice abstract this article examines the impact of private self awareness on consumer decision making in four studies the authors show that the ease of preference formation accompanying private self awareness makes people more willing and able to rely on their personal preference weights as the authors predict privately self aware consumers are less inclined to opt for a varied choice set study 1 and are less likely to select compromise options studies 2 and 3 unless they find that it is too difficult to construct their personal preferences study 4

new products the antidote to private label growth abstract as private labels pls continue to grow in power and market share product innovation has become one of the strongest weapons in the national brand nb manufacturer s arsenal in this article the author assesses when and to what extent new products change nbs market position to address this question more than 300 nb and pl introductions are analyzed using a multibreak model that quantifies the impact of product introductions on own share rival nb and pl share and category sales drawing on empirical generalizations the author finds that products introduced by leading nbs standard pls and premium pls are more likely to increase category sales than products introduced by follower nbs or economy pls new products introduced by leader and follower nbs more often boost own share thus new products help prevent the decline of nb shares with respect to competitive impact new products affect rival shares with the exception of those launched by economy pls still nbs tend to hurt rival nbs

testing expected utility maximization under price and quantity risk with a heterogeneous panel refutable implications based on the curvature properties of the indirect utility function for the competitive firm operating under uncertainty are extended to the case of both price and quantity uncertainty using unit roots and cointegration tests for heterogeneous panels a model of us agricultural production is developed based on the time series properties of a panel of state level data most refutable hypotheses under output price and output quantity risk are not rejected but symmetry conditions implied by a twice continuously differentiable indirect utility function are rejected the same test conclusions are obtained from a traditional model that presumes stationarity in all variables

the sound of silence observational learning in the u s kidney market mere observation of others choices can be informative about product quality this paper develops an individual level dynamic model of observational learning and applies it to a novel data set from the u s kidney market where transplant candidates on a waiting list sequentially decide whether to accept a kidney offer we find strong evidence of observational learning patients draw negative quality inferences from earlier refusals in the queue thus becoming more inclined towards refusal themselves this self reinforcing chain of inferences leads to poor kidney utilization despite the continual shortage in kidney supply counterfactual policy simulations show that patients would have made more efficient use of kidneys had the concerns behind earlier refusals been shared this study yields a set of marketing implications in particular we show that observational learning and information sharing shape consumer choices in markedly different ways optimal marketing strategies should take into account how consumers learn from others

production risk and optimal input decisions the paper examines the impact of production risk on a producer s optimal input decisions whether producers use more or fewer inputs in a yield risky environment depends on the sign of the marginal risk premium which is determined by risk preferences and technology i present the weakest condition on technology that is sufficient to sign the marginal risk premium for all risk averse preferences if this condition fails to hold the marginal risk premium is not of the same sign for all risk averters results are used to explore the properties of an estimated technology

production risk risk aversion and the determination of risk attitudes among spanish rice producers agricultural production is subject to risk and the attitudes of producers toward risk will influence input choices insofar as these affect production risk risk attitudes in turn may be affected by certain socioeconomic characteristics of producers using 2004 survey data from a cross section of 130 spanish rice farms we estimate risk aversion coefficients of farmers and investigate the influence of a series of socioeconomic variables on their risk attitudes our results show that farmers exhibit risk averse behavior and that risk attitudes are related to a series of socioeconomic characteristics in particular the belief that the farm will continue after the producer retires is found to increase the degree of risk aversion while age is found to have nonlinear effects on risk aversion off farm income especially from nonagricultural activities is found to reduce risk aversion neither the educational level of the producer nor the presence of dependents on the household is found to have an effect on risk preferences regarding the production technology we find that land labor and fitosanitary products are risk reducing inputs whereas capital seeds and fertilizer all increase risk

how much do incentives affect car purchase agent based microsimulation of consumer choice of new cars part i model structure simulation of bounded rationality and model validation this article presents an agent based microsimulation capable of forecasting the effects of policy levers that influence individual choices of new passenger cars the fundamental decision making units are households distinguished by sociodemographic characteristics and car ownership a two stage model of individual decision processes is employed in the first stage individual choice sets are constructed using simple non compensatory rules that are based on previously owned cars second decision makers evaluate alternatives in their individual choice set using a multi attributive weighting rule the attribute weights are based on a multinomial logit model for cross country policy analysis in european countries additionally prospect theory and the notion of mental accounting are used to model the perception of monetary values the microsimulation forecasts actual market observations with high accuracy both on the level of aggregate market characteristics as well as on a highly resolved level of distributions of market shares the presented approach is useful for the assessment of policies that influence individual purchase decisions of new passenger cars it allows accounting for a highly resolved car fleet and differentiated consumer segments as a result the complexity of incentive schemes can be represented and detailed structural changes can be investigated

joint risk preference technology estimation with a primal system applied studies of the firm in a risky environment have concentrated either on the firm s technology or on its risk preferences these models result in generally inconsistent and inefficient parameter estimates a primal model is proposed which allows a firm s preferences and technology to be estimated jointly in the presence of risk the model is applied to iowa corn production and estimated technology parameters are compared with those from other approaches modest risk aversion leads to inelastic even backbending per acre supplies and input demands yield heteroskedasticity in inputs leads to supply heteroskedasticity in prices especially for risk neutral firms

context dependent preferences the standard theory of choice based on value maximization associates with each option a real value such that given an offered set the decision maker chooses the option with the highest value despite its simplicity and intuitive appeal there is a growing body of data that is inconsistent with this theory in particular the relative attractiveness of x compared to y often depends on the presence or absence of a third option z and the market share of an option can actually be increased by enlarging the offered set we review recent empirical findings that are inconsistent with value maximization and present a context dependent model that expresses the value of each option as an additive combination of two components a contingent weighting process that captures the effect of the background context and a binary comparison process that describes the effect of the local context the model accounts for observed violations of the standard theory and provides a framework for analyzing context dependent p

paying attention or paying too much in medicare part d we study whether people became less likely to switch medicare prescription drug plans pdps due to more options and more time in part d panel data for a random 20 percent sample of enrollees from 2006 2010 show that 50 percent were not in their original pdps by 2010 individuals switched pdps in response to higher costs of their status quo plans saving them money contrary to choice overload larger choice sets increased switching unless the additional plans were relatively expensive neither switching overall nor responsiveness to costs declined over time and above minimum spending in 2010 remained below the 2006 and 2007 levels

consumer deliberation and product line design this paper studies optimal product line design when consumers need to incur costly deliberation to uncover their valuations for quality to induce deliberation a firm must maintain quality dispersion and cut the price of the high end product so that consumers are motivated to deliberate in the hope that high end consumption fits their needs to prevent deliberation the firm may have to offer downgraded quality at a low price so that an impulsive purchase will not appear too wasteful whether the firm should induce deliberation depends on how much surplus it creates by aligning the supply of quality with heterogeneous demand for quality and how much surplus it captures during this process interestingly equilibrium firm profit consumer surplus and social welfare can all increase with the cost of deliberation we extend the model to accommodate consumers heterogeneous prior beliefs of their valuations for quality we also discuss how market research could benefit from taking into account the endogeneity of consumer deliberation

toward extending the compromise effect to complex buying contexts abstract kivetz netzer and srinivasan 2004 make an important contribution to the theory of choice models by demonstrating through a rigorous analysis of four alternative models that the compromise effect systematically affects choice in a wide range of conditions the value and impact of their work can be enhanced by extensions that examine key underlying institutional variables that may shape the nature and scope of compromise effects the authors provide a set of issues that further research can effectively pursue in the context of institutional buying processes and the purchase of complex solutions rather than individual products

modeling the psychology of consumer and firm behavior with behavioral economics abstract marketing is an applied science that tries to explain and influence how firms and consumers behave in markets marketing models are usually applications of standard economic theories which rely on strong assumptions of rationality of consumers and firms behavioral economics explores the implications of the limits of rationality with the goal of making economic theories more plausible by explaining and predicting behavior more accurately while maintaining formal power this article reviews six behavioral economics models that are useful to marketing three models generalize standard preference structures to allow for sensitivity to reference points and loss aversion social preferences toward outcomes of others and preference for instant gratification the other three models generalize the concept of game theoretic equilibrium allowing decision makers to make mistakes encounter limits on the depth of strategic thinking and equilibrate by learning from feedback the authors also discuss a sp

marketing of vice goods a strategic analysis of the package size decision consumers are often unable to resist the temptation of overconsuming certain products such as cookies crackers soft drinks alcohol etc to control their consumption some consumers buy small packages or abstain from purchasing the product altogether other consumers however still purchase large packages and overconsume from a strategic perspective firms have the option of introducing small packages or only offering large packages we use the literature on hyperbolic discounting to model consumers self control problems and examine conditions under which firms will offer small packages to help consumers combat their self control problem and how this offering in turn affects prices profits consumer and social welfare our results show that introducing small packages can increase firms profits only when a small fraction of consumers have overconsumption problems or when small packages can bring in new customers additionally we find that competition can sometimes reduce the incentives for firms to introduce small packages this is particularly true when a large fraction of consumers is attracted to small packages we also find that firms profits can sometimes decrease if they produce healthier alternatives of their goods our analysis of consumer welfare reveals that small packages enhance consumer and social welfare even though they sometimes increase the consumption of vice goods

contextual inference in markets on the informational content of product lines context can influence decisions this malleability of choice is usually invoked as evidence that people do not maximize stable preference orderings in a market equilibrium however context conveys payoff relevant information to consumers consequently these consumers rationally violate naive formulations of standard choice theoretic principles i identify informational asymmetries under which apparently anomalous behaviors namely the compromise effect and choice overload arise as market equilibria firms respond to consumers contextual inference in case of the compromise effect a firm may introduce premium loss leaders expensive goods of overly high quality that increase the demand for other goods

a rational reconstruction of the compromise effect using market data to infer utilities this article explores the possibility that consumers use market data to make inferences about product utilities the argument is made by means of an example based on the compromise effect found in extant experimental data this phenomenon is generally looked at as a manifestation of deviations from rationality in choice however assuming full rationality i describe a decision rule that is based on consumers inferences about their personal valuation of alternatives from the portfolio of market offerings and some information about their own relative tastes through a number of examples i will argue that consumers often use this or similar decision rules to make inferences about utility i then show that the decision rule may generate compromise effects in experiments and that it may be sustainable the compromise effect could therefore be seen as preliminary evidence that consumers make such inferences

optimal product line design when consumers exhibit choice set dependent preferences in a market of consumers with varying willingness to pay using product line as a discrimination tool may extract higher profits than serving all consumers with a single product local context effects however point to yet another consideration in designing product lines how the appeal of a product changes with the context provided by other products in the choice set i present a model of product line design that incorporates both discrimination and context management goals and offers recommendations for the variety and positioning of products to this end the model makes use of a framework that allows preferences to be choice set dependent given this framework i study how the firm manages externalities between products created by such dependencies the firm creates distortions above and beyond those resulting from discrimination motives alone for example in a vertically differentiated market for quality quality distortions exist even for the consumers with the highest valuations the range of quality provisions given the number of products is compressed as the relative importance of unfavorable comparisons among products increases surprisingly this compression may even lead the firm to forego discrimination among consumers regardless of the cost of offering distinct products

context dependent voting and political ambiguity abstract in recent decades psychologists have shown that the standard model of individual choice is often violated one regularly observed violation is that choices are influenced by the decision context to incorporate these effects into politics we introduce a theory of context dependent voting and apply it to the puzzle of why candidates are so frequently ambiguous in their policy pronouncements we show that context dependent voters develop a taste for ambiguity even when they evaluate distances quadratically and exhibit traditional risk aversion turning to aggregate effects we incorporate context dependent voting into a model of electoral competition and show that strategic candidates respond in equilibrium to context dependent voters by offering ambiguous platforms thereby affecting the policy outcome

choice based on reasons the case of attraction and compromise effects building on previous research this article proposes that choice behavior under preference uncertainty may be easier to explain by assuming that consumers select the alternative supported by the best reasons this approach provides an explanation for the so called attraction effect and leads to the prediction of a compromise effect consistent with the hypotheses the results indicate that 1 brands tend to gain share when they become compromise alternatives in a choice set 2 attraction and compromise effects tend to be stronger among subjects who expect to justify their decisions to others and 3 selections of dominating and compromise brands are associated with more elaborate and difficult decisions

joint estimation of risk preferences and technology flexible utility or futility a thought experiment is designed to investigate whether the structure of risk aversion i e the changes in absolute or relative risk aversion associated with changes in wealth can be estimated with reasonable precision from agricultural production data findings strongly suggest that typical production data are unlikely to allow identification of the structure of risk aversion a flexible utility parameterization is found to slightly worsen technology parameter estimates results also indicate that even under a restricted utility specification utility parameter estimates are biased further their quality is much worse when shocks are not large or samples are small

consumer preferences for alternative fuel vehicles comparing a utility maximization and a regret minimization model this paper presents a utility based and a regret based model of consumer preferences for alternative fuel vehicles based on a large scale stated choice experiment held among company car leasers in the netherlands estimation and application of random utility maximization and random regret minimization discrete choice models shows that while the two models achieve almost identical fit with the data and differ only marginally in terms of predictive ability they generate rather different choice probability simulations and policy implications the most eye catching difference between the two models is that the random regret minimization model accommodates a compromise effect as it assigns relatively high choice probabilities to alternative fuel vehicles that perform reasonably well on each dimension instead of having a strong performance on some dimensions and a poor performance on others

dyadic compromise effect existing research on the compromise effect has focused exclusively on the individual this paper investigates compromise effects in a setting that involves multiple individuals making a choice we study whether the dyadic compromise effect dce exists the association between dyadic and individual compromise effects and strategies to mitigate the dce we build a statistical model of dyadic choice that formally incorporates dce we conduct two studies to test our proposed models empirically in study 1 we begin with an investigation of the dce with student subjects in study 2 we test for the presence of dce among married couples when making retirement investment choices in both studies model free and model based evidence provides strong support for the presence of dce a model that incorporates dce provides a better fit than models that do not evidence in support of dce is shown to be robust to alternative compromise effect model specifications and utility aggregation methods we find that the indi

electronic tickets smart cards and online prepayments when and how to advance sell advance selling occurs when sellers allow buyers to purchase at a time preceding consumption shugan and xie 2000 electronic tickets smart cards online prepayments and other technological advances make advance selling possible for many if not all service providers these technologies lower the cost of making complex transactions at a greater distance from the seller s site they also give sellers more control over advance selling by decreasing arbitrage as technology enhances the capability to advance sell more academic attention is vital this paper strives to exploit these technologies by developing advance selling strategies until recently advance selling research focused on the airline industry and specific characteristics of that industry these characteristics included the price insensitivity of late arrivals e g business travelers compared with early arrivals e g leisure travelers demand uncertainty across flights on the same day and capacity constraints recent findings by shugan and xie 2000 show that advance selling is a far more general marketing tool than previously thought it does not require these industry specific characteristics it only requires the existence of buyer uncertainty about future valuations moreover sellers without the ability to price discriminate can use advance selling to improve profits to the level of first degree price discrimination this finding is important because buyers are nearly always uncertain about their future valuations for most services e g the utility of next year s vacation or a future college education in this paper we take the next step from shugan and xie 2000 we show that advance selling profits do not come from buyer surplus but from more buyers being able to purchase we determine when and how to advance sell in a variety of situations including situations with limited capacity second period arrivals refunds buyer risk aversion exogenous credibility continuous preference distributions and premium pricing we determine when advance selling improves profits and when it does how to set advance prices we ask and answer seven questions first when should sellers advance sell second how much can advance selling improve profits compared with only spot selling third what factors impact the profitability of advance selling and how fourth should advance prices be higher or lower or the same as spot prices fifth how do capacity constraints impact advance selling strategies sixth should sellers limit the number of advance sales finally what is the possible impact of buyer risk aversion first we provide precise conditions when sellers should advance sell for example without capacity constraints we show that sellers should advance sell when marginal costs are sufficiently low to make it profitable to sell to buyers with low valuations and sufficiently high to convince buyers that the spot price will be higher than the advance price second we find that advance selling can almost double the profits from optimal spot selling to early arrivals we also show that advance selling has no impact on consumer surplus in markets with homogenous consumers and no capacity constraints therefore advance selling can increase social welfare because seller profits increase third we find that two very important factors impacting the profitability of advance selling are seller credibility and marginal costs buyers only advance buy when they expect an advantage from advance buying over spot buying without capacity constraints sellers must credibly convince buyers that the advance price is at a discount to the spot price we show that this condition is met under different circumstances for example large marginal costs can create credibility because buyers believe that these costs will lead to high spot prices fourth we find although optimal advance prices can be at a discount to the spot price that sometimes a premium is optimal premiums are optimal when capacity is large but limited and marginal costs are not too large buyers advance purchase at a premium to spot prices when capacity is limited and spot prices are low note that this is not a risk premium and risk aversion is not required no prior research has suggested this strategy because that research relies on the assumption that early arrivals are more price sensitive than later ones without that assumption premium advance pricing is sometimes optimal fifth we find that binding capacity constraints can impact the profitability of advance selling in opposite ways on one hand capacity constraints create seller credibility buyers believe that spot prices will be high when they know spot capacity is limited and perhaps more limited by advance sales on the other hand when capacity is limited the need to increase sales from discounted advance prices diminishes sixth consistent with desiraju and shugan 1999 we find that limiting advance sales can be profitable but only under restrictive conditions these conditions are 1 selling to all early arrivals would leave insufficient capacity in the spot period to sell to all second period arrivals with high valuations 2 the optimal spot price is high and 3 marginal costs are sufficiently small to make advance selling profitable finally we find that buyer risk aversion can sometimes increase the profitability of advance selling our findings provide precise guidelines for a large number of service providers that will have the technical capability to advance sell for those service providers advance selling provides a creative pricing strategy that can potentially provide substantial improvements in profits

identifying the factors affecting the willingness to pay for fuel efficient vehicles in turkey a case of hybrids this paper aims to determine the factors that have an impact on the consumers willingness to pay a premium for hybrid automobiles in turkey a web based random survey was conducted in different regions of turkey a questionnaire was administered to 1983 participants in january march of 2009 the questionnaire was prepared by taking the issues raised in various sources into account an ordered probit model was used to meet the objective results show that variables such as income gender education concerns about global warming number of automobiles importance of automobile performance risk preference attitude toward the alternative energy sources have an impact on the consumers willingness to pay a premium for hybrids findings suggest that consumers who have high income higher educational level and concerns about the global warming are more likely to pay a premium for hybrids this study is expected to make important contributions to the current literature related to the consumers willingness to pay for hybrids by providing a research study from a developing country s perspective results of this study also make important contributions to the policy and decision makers environmental groups and automotive industry

stochastic technology risk preferences and adoption of site specific technologies a model of farmer decision making is developed to determine the extent to which uncertainties about soil fertility and weather affect the value of site specific technologies ssts using jointly estimated risk and technology parameters uncertainty can lead risk averse farmers to apply more fertilizers and generate more pollution than in the certainty case ignoring uncertainty and risk aversion would overestimate the economic and environmental benefits of ssts and underestimate the subsidy required to induce adoption accounting for uncertainties and risk preferences might explain the low observed adoption rates of ssts improving the accuracy of ssts would increase the incentives for adoption

the discriminating consumer product proliferation and willingness to pay for quality abstract the authors propose that a crowded product space motivates consumers to better discriminate between options of different quality specifically this article reports evidence from three controlled experiments and one natural experiment that people are prepared to pay more for high quality products and less for low quality products when they are considered in the context of a dense as opposed to a sparse set of alternatives to explain this effect the authors argue that consumers uncertain about the importance of quality learn from observing market outcomes product proliferation reveals that other consumers care to discriminate among similar alternatives and in turn this inference raises the importance of quality in decision making

when more alternatives lead to less choice this paper shows that when the alternatives offered to consumers span the preference space as it would be chosen by a firm search or evaluation costs may lead consumers not to search and not to choose if too many or too few alternatives are offered if too many alternatives are offered then the consumer may have to engage in many searches or evaluations to find a satisfactory fit this may be too costly and result in the consumer avoiding making a choice altogether if too few alternatives are offered then the consumer may not search or choose fearing that an acceptable choice is unlikely these two forces result in the existence of a finite optimal number of alternatives that maximizes the probability of choice

justification effects on consumer choice of hedonic and utilitarian goods abstract people want to have fun and they are more likely to have fun if the situation allows them to justify it this research studies how people s need for justifying hedonic consumption drives two choice patterns that are observed in typical purchase contexts first relative preferences between hedonic and utilitarian alternatives can reverse depending on how the immediate purchase situation presents itself a hedonic alternative tends to be rated more highly than a comparable utilitarian alternative when each is presented singly but the utilitarian alternative tends to be chosen over the hedonic alternative when the two are presented jointly second people have preferences for expending different combinations of time effort and money for acquiring hedonic versus utilitarian items they are willing to pay more in time for hedonic goods and more in money for utilitarian goods the author explores the topic through a combination of four experiments and field studies

that s what i thought i wanted miswanting and regret for a standard good in a mass customized world how can a standardized product survive in a mass customized world this requires understanding that consumers often experience problems predicting their future hedonic reactions to new experiences such as custom products leading to feelings of regret this form of regret occurs not because the custom product differs from specifications but because consumers miswanted the design they ordered our analytic model shows that regret aversion induces consumers to design custom products to reflect the attributes of the available standard products consequently regret averse consumers may choose the standard product rather than place a custom order the number of available standard products however moderates both these effects two experiments empirically substantiate the key predictions of the analytical model a the custom product s resemblance to the standard product grows with regret aversion associated with miswanting b there exists a segment of regretfully loyal consumers for the standard product in a mass customized world and it expands with regret aversion c both the above effects are weakened by the presence of a second standard product and d the custom product can increase its market share when the number of standard products increases

a canonical model of choice with initial endowments we use the revealed preference method to derive a model of individual decision making when the endowment of an agent provides a reference point that may influence her choices this model generalizes the classical rational choice model which views choice as a consequence of utility maximization instead our model sees choice as arising from psychologically constrained utility maximization where the constraints are induced by one s initial endowment in particular this model produces status quo bias as a natural consequence but not necessarily the endowment effect a range of economic applications identify the predictive and explanatory strength of the model in particular we demonstrate that the status quo bias phenomenon reduces the size of the substitution effect in problems of consumption choice

a monetary measure of the strength and robustness of the attraction effect the attraction effect has been studied in conditions of indifference among options and measured at the aggregate level we introduce a new within subjects design based on induced preferences and psychometrics our method yields two individual level measures the traditional frequency measure and a new monetary indicator the monetary indicator measures the robustness of the effect to decreases in the relative utility of the target with respect to the competitor we find choice frequencies consistent with the literature our monetary measure shows that subjects still prefer the target up to the point where it is 8 more expensive than the competitor