endogenous lifetime and economic growth abstract endogenous mortality is introduced in a two period overlapping generations model probability of surviving from the first period to the next depends upon health capital that is augmented through public investment high mortality societies do not grow fast since shorter lifespans discourage savings development traps are possible productivity differences across nations result in persistent differences in capital output ratios and relatively larger gaps in income and mortality high mortality also reduces returns on education where risks are undiversifiable when human capital drives economic growth countries differing in health capital do not converge to similar living standards threshold effects may also result

a general equilibrium analysis of climate change impacts on tourism this paper studies the economic implications of climate change induced variations in tourism demand using a world cge model the model is first re calibrated at some future years obtaining hypothetical benchmark equilibria which are subsequently perturbed by shocks simulating the effects of climate change we portray the impact of climate change on tourism by means of two sets of shocks occurring simultaneously the first set of shocks translate predicted variations in tourist flows into changes of consumption preferences for domestically produced goods the second set reallocate income across world regions simulating the effect of higher or lower tourists expenditure our analysis highlights that variations in tourist flows will affect regional economies in a way that is directly related to the sign and magnitude of flow variations at a global scale climate change will ultimately lead to a welfare loss unevenly spread across regions 2005 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

growth and multiple forms of human capital in an augmented solow model a panel data investigation abstract the empirical analyses reported in this paper test the argument that human capital is a complex input that consists of more than knowledge capital the results indicate that omitting health capital from augmented solow growth models produces misspecification biases and that health capital has a significant impact upon economic growth rates

an indirect effect of education on growth abstract several recent studies have found that increases in educational attainment are not related to economic growth the results of this paper suggest education may not directly enhance economic growth but does so indirectly through productivity improvement

does agriculture contribute to economic growth some empirical evidence this paper augments the solow swan model of economic growth to include the share of the labour force working outside the agricultural sector as a labour augmenting variable in the aggregate production function the cross country empirical results suggest that transferring labour from the agricultural sector to other sectors of the economy is associated with economic growth this result is robust to using instrumental variables to control for the potential endogeneity of the relative size of the agricultural labour force

do standards of living converge abstract this paper examines whether consumption per capita a measure of the standard of living converges across economies in addition to the standard convergence test which is known to be consistent only under implausible assumptions we use a recently developed valid specification in general our estimates provide evidence against divergence of standards of living across countries on the other hand convergence of standards of living can be rejected for all but a sample of rich countries

robust tests of forward exchange market efficiency with empirical evidence from the 1920s summary this paper provides a robust statistical approach to testing the unbiasedness hypothesis in forward exchange market efficiency studies the methods we use allow us to work explicitly with levels rather than differenced data they are statistically robust to data distributions with heavy tails and they can be applied to data sets where the frequency of observation and the futures maturity do not coincide in addition our methods allow for stochastic trend non stationarity and general forms of serial dependence the methods are applied to daily data of spot exchange rates and forward exchange rates during the 1920s which marked the first episode of a broadly general floating exchange rate system the tail behaviour of the data is analysed using an adaptive data based method for estimating the tail slope of the density the results confirm the need for the use of robust regression methods we find cointegration between the forward rate and spot rate for the four currencies we consider the belgian and french francs the italian lira and the us dollar all measured against the british pound we find support for a stationary risk premium in the case of the belgian franc the italian lira and the us dollar and we find support for the simple market efficiency hypothesis where the forward rate is an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate and there is a zero mean risk premium in the case of the us dollar

quantification of interdependencies between economic systems and ecosystem services an input output model applied to the seine estuary abstract the aim of this paper is to assess the possible contribution of an input output model towards two of the basic principles of the sustainability strategy of integrated coastal zone management iczm and post normal science according to these principles decision support tools should offer a holistic perspective and handle high uncertainty the difficulties in reaching sustainability are due partly to the prevailing use of narrow system boundary tools that are non holistic consequently they fail to capture important ecosystem services and ignore interdependencies between them to comply with the basic principles our method allows environmental assets to be evaluated in multiple units and integrates results from recent researches in natural sciences both enable coverage of interdependencies between ecosystem services thereby we enlarge input output modelling from the two conventional ecosystem services of sink and provisioning to the most vital ones the supporting services an application to the seine estuary addresses the impacts of maritime transportation infrastructures on nursery habitats for commercial fish the ecosystem services covered are life support and resource provisioning our results show that the restoration of a total of 73 7 km 2 of nursery areas over the period 2004 2015 would result in a stock of sole in 2015 that exceeds the business as usual scenario by 44 2 uncertainty range 35 9 69 9 in spite of high restoration costs the negative macro economic impact is very low however on the sector level a trade off results between nurseries and three economic sectors the quantification of such trade offs in our model is particularly useful to public participation in decision making

does ecological economics have a future contradiction and reinvention in the age of climate change abstract this paper addresses the role of neoclassical methodologies in ecological economics and the contradictions these methodologies pose to the field s critical founding principles we first consider robert costanza s treatment of nicholas stern s global deal and then survey climate change related articles published in this journal over the past five years this survey reveals how mainstream neoclassical methodologies dominate discourse and do so by marginalizing more critical political economy analyses this situation imperils the field s founding vision of a no growth steady state it also fails to address the related growth dynamics of capitalism without such a critical treatment the field s formal embrace of methodological pluralism actually entails an ideological empiricism that renders ecological economics theoretically incoherent this situation undermines the field s historical promise as an alternative economic paradigm ecological economics now faces a problematic future its survival in a form faithful to its founding vision will require an explicit choice to address its internal contradictions and reinvent itself in ways relevant to our contemporary context without such a choice ecological economics will likely succumb to an implicit acceptance of the hegemony of mainstream economic methodologies and their pro growth imperatives

are the penn world tables data on government consumption and investment being misused abstract this paper argues that it is inappropriate to measure g y and i y using penn world tables data the empirical results of barro and lee carnegie rochester conference series on public policy 40 1994 1 46 are sensitive to whether g y and i y are measured in local or international prices

optimal climate policy is a utopia from quantitative to qualitative cost benefit analysis abstract the dominance of quantitative cost benefit analysis cba and optimality concepts in the economic analysis of climate policy is criticised among others it is argued to be based in a misplaced interpretation of policy for a complex climate economy system as being analogous to individual inter temporal welfare optimisation the transfer of quantitative cba and optimality concepts reflects an overly ambitious approach that does more harm than good an alternative approach is to focus the attention on extreme events structural change and complexity it is argued that a qualitative rather than a quantitative cba that takes account of these aspects can support the adoption of a minimax regret approach or precautionary principle in climate policy this means implement stringent ghg reduction policies as soon as possible

iq and economic growth further augmentation of mankiw romer weil model abstract solow s growth model is further augmented to include iq in addition to proxies for education and health the estimates indicate that iq variable greatly erodes the size and significance of education and health parameters and dominates even a measure of institutional quality

a strategic analysis of global warming theory and some numbers we model the global warming process as a dynamic commons game in which the players are countries their actions at each date produce emissions of greenhouse gases and the state variable is the current stock of greenhouse gases the theoretical analysis is complemented by a calibration exercise the first set of results establishes theoretically and then with illustrative numbers the over emissions due to a tragedy of the commons the power of simple sanctions to lower emissions and increase welfare is then examined as is the effect of cost asymmetry finally a complete theoretical charactrization is provided for the best equilibrium and it is shown that it has a very simple structure it involves a constant emission rate through time

dynamic inefficiencies in an employment based health insurance system theory and evidence we investigate the effects of the institutional settings of the us health care system on individuals life cycle medical expenditures health is a form of general human capital labor turnover and labor market frictions prevent an employer employee pair from capturing the entire surplus from investment in an employee s health thus the pair underinvests in health during working years thereby increasing medical expenditures during retirement we provide empirical evidence consistent with the comparative statics predictions of our model using the medical expenditure panel survey meps and the health and retirement study hrs our estimates suggest significant inefficiencies in health investment in the united states

targeting conservation efforts in the presence of threshold effects and ecosystem linkages abstract the prevailing federal policy of targeting conservation programs on the basis of physical criteria tends to ignore the threshold effect of conservation efforts and the correlation between alternative environmental benefits in this article we examine the extent to which conservation funds will be misallocated when threshold effects and correlated benefits are ignored we show that targeting conservation efforts based on physical criteria or political equity concerns may actually lead to the lowest possible benefits to society from conservation expenditure ignoring correlated benefits may lead not only to misallocation of conservation funds among watersheds but also to incorrect resources e g land streams being targeted for conservation the empirical analysis focuses on riparian habitat investments for salmon restoration in the pacific northwest we show that a large portion of conservation benefits would be lost when threshold effects and correlated benefits are ignored and argue that funds should be allocated so that the total value of environmental benefits is maximized not the total amount of resources protected

estimation and control of spanish energy related co2 emissions an input output approach this article uses input output methods to obtain the energy related co2 intensities for the spanish economy in 1992 based on those intensities it yields a structural decomposition of spanish energy related co2 emissions and an estimation of the price effects of several hypothetical carbon taxes levied on fossil fuel consumption these results are related to the ongoing discussion within eu circles and member states about the consequences of carbon energy taxes and to the simulated effects of such taxes in various countries the paper also responds to the lack of reliable disaggregated data on spanish co2 emissions and to the growing awareness on the limited effectiveness of spanish climate change policies

economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions abstract recent empirical research has examined the relationship between certain indicators of environmental degradation and income concluding that in some cases an inverted u shaped relationship which has been called an environmental kuznets curve ekc exists between these variables unfortunately this inverted u shaped relationship does not hold for greenhouse gas emissions one explanation of the absence of ekc like behavior in greenhouse gas emissions is that greenhouse gases are special pollutants that create global not local disutility but the international nature of global warming is not the only reason that prevents de linking greenhouse gas emissions from economic growth the intergenerational nature of the negative impact of greenhouse gas emissions may have also been an important factor preventing the implementation of greenhouse gas abatement measures in the past in this paper we explore the effect that the presence of intergenerational spillovers has on the emissions income relationship we use a numerically calibrated overlapping generations model of climate economy interactions we conclude that 1 the intertemporal responsibility of the regulatory agency 2 the institutional capacity to make intergenerational transfers and 3 the presence of intergenerationally lagged impact of emissions constitute important determinants of the relationship between economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions

cooperation on climate change mitigation abstract we analyze conditions under which it is possible to achieve efficient mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions with a self enforcing international agreement in which all countries find it in their self interest to abide by the agreement we model the choice of emissions by countries as a dynamic game we use a two part punishment scheme for deviations from an agreement that is renegotiation proof and show when this scheme supports the efficient outcome as a subgame perfect equilibrium using numerical examples we show that an efficient subgame perfect equilibrium exists for a range of reasonable parameter values the existence of such equilibrium may be non monotonic in the discount rate and the ratio of slope of marginal abatement cost and marginal damages

a consumption based approach to carbon emission accounting sectoral differences and environmental benefits in recent years there has been growing concern about the emission trade balances of countries this is due to the fact that countries with an open economy are active players in international trade trade is not only a major factor in forging a country s economic structure but contributes to the movement of embodied emissions beyond country borders this issue is especially relevant from the carbon accounting policy and domestic production perspective as it is known that the production based principle is employed in the kyoto agreement the research described herein was designed to reveal the interdependence of countries on international trade and the corresponding embodied emissions both on national and on sectoral level and to illustrate the significance of the consumption based emission accounting it is presented here to what extent a consumption based accounting would change the present system based on production based accounting and allocation the relationship of co2 emission embodied in exports and embodied in imports is analysed here international trade can blur the responsibility for the ecological effects of production and consumption and it can lengthen the link between consumption and its consequences input output models are used in the methodology as they provide an appropriate framework for climate change accounting the analysis comprises an international comparative study of four european countries germany the united kingdom the netherlands and hungary with extended trading activities and carbon emissions moving from a production based approach in climate policy to a consumption based principle and allocation approach would help to increase the efficiency of emission reductions and would force countries to rethink their trading activities in order to decrease the environmental load of production activities the results of this study show that it is important to distinguish between the two emission accounting approaches both on the global and the local level

climate clubs overcoming free riding in international climate policy notwithstanding great progress in scientific and economic under standing of climate change it has proven difficult to forge inter national agreements because of free riding as seen in the defunct kyoto protocol this study examines the club as a model for international climate policy based on economic theory and empirical modeling it finds that without sanctions against non participants there are no stable coalitions other than those with minimal abatement by contrast a regime with small trade penalties on non participants a climate club can induce a large stable coalition with high levels of abatement jel q54 q58 k32 k33

changing industrial structure to reduce carbon dioxide emissions a chinese application abstract increasing concern about carbon dioxide co2 emission reduction demands knowledge about the production structure of an economy information on productive linkages yields insight about forward and backward emission effects associated with sectoral inputs and outputs and serves as an essential starting point to identify the optimised industrial structure under the constraint of co2 emission this paper proposes a combined linkage analysis and multi objective programming approach to identify the key co2 emission sectors and the optimised production structure with respect to emission reduction target as a demonstration the proposed approach is applied to data from china in 2007 the result shows that to reduce co2 emissions from 5707 16 to 5452 12 million tonnes china needs to change its industrial structure by focussing on industrial groups as defined by linkage characteristics which would lead to a subsequent gdp decrease of 82 59 billion yuan from a policy standpoint the analytical techniques described in this paper can provide valuable information for planners and decision makers to formulate feasible and practical industrial polices with implications for co2 emissions

descriptive prescriptive and second best approaches to the control of global greenhouse gas emissions a prescriptive second best approach is developed for determining the control of greenhouse gas emissions in an inter temporal multi region model of the world concerns about inter and intra generational equity are reflected in the rate of time preference and regional weights of a social welfare function choices are narrowed down by the ethical principle of anonymity a third dimension of equity inequality aversion is subject to greater variation the aggressiveness of recommended abatement can be made to bracket results for a common descriptive model by the choice of inequality aversion in this manner the perception of a sharp dichotomy between descriptive and prescriptive approaches is moderated

the long term impact of health on economic growth in latin america abstract growth regressions adapted as granger type causality tests give strong evidence of 30 year causality from health to income in 18 latin american countries the health indicator is probability of survival by age and gender groups for 1950 90 a permanent increment of between 0 8 and 1 5 annual income is associated with typical adult and surprisingly old age health improvements the channels of causation from health to income are diverse and need to be identified in microeconomic studies that should however include a wide variety long term phenomena to account for the economic effects of health

a goal programming model for environmental policy analysis application to spain abstract sustainable development has become an important part of international and national approaches to integrate economic environmental social and ethical considerations so that a good quality of life can be enjoyed by current and future generations for as long as possible however nowadays sustainable development is threatened by industrial pollution emissions which cause serious environmental problems due to a lack of adequate quantitative models for environmental policy analysis there is a strong need for analytical models in order to know the effects of environmental policies in the present paper a goal programming model based on an environmental input output linear programming model is developed and applied to the spanish economy the model combines relations between economic energy social and environmental effects providing valuable information for policy makers in order to define and examine the different goals that must be implemented to reach sustainability

human development in poor countries on the role of private incomes and public services development is often taken to mean rising incomes discussions of the goals of development now often emphasize the reduction of poverty rather than raising average incomes per se the role of social services particularly basic health and education has also received greater emphasis in the 1980s viewed mainly as instruments for raising the incomes of the poor but in all these approaches income growth of one sort or another is what development is all about a rather different view of the meaning of development has recently found expression in the 1990 human development report hrd produced by the united nations development programme a conceptual underpinning for this approach can be found in the work of amartya sen the essence of this view is that human development what people can actually do and be is the overriding purpose of economic development underdevelopment is viewed as the lack of certain basic capabilities rather than lack of income per se we do not aim here to advocate one of these approaches over the other but rather to explore their implications for development policy for instance what does the human development approach imply about the role of economic growth and in particular about reducing income poverty should development priorities shift toward the provision of public services in poor countries even if such a shift is at the expense of income growth

optimal dynamic carbon taxes in a climate economy model with distortionary fiscal policy how should carbon be taxed as a part of fiscal policy the literature on optimal carbon pricing often abstracts from other taxes however when governments raise revenues with distortionary taxes carbon levies have fiscal impacts while they raise revenues directly they may shrink the bases of other taxes e g by decreasing employment this article theoretically characterizes and then quantifies optimal carbon taxes in a dynamic general equilibrium climate economy model with distortionary fiscal policy first this article establishes a novel theoretical relationship between the optimal taxation of carbon and of capital income this link arises because carbon emissions destroy natural capital they accumulate in the atmosphere and decrease future output consequently this article shows how the standard logic against capital income taxes extends to distortions on environmental capital investments second this article characterizes optimal climate policy in sub optimal fiscal settings where income taxes are constrained to remain at their observed levels third this article presents a detailed calibration that builds on the seminal dice approach but adds features essential for a setting with distortionary taxes such as a differentiation between climate change production impacts e g on agriculture and direct utility impacts e g on biodiversity existence value the central quantitative finding is that optimal carbon tax schedules are 8 24 lower when there are distortionary taxes compared to the setting with lump sum taxes considered in the literature

energy system impacts and policy implications of the european intended nationally determined contribution and low carbon pathway to 2050 in march 2015 the european union eu submitted to the united nations framework convention on climate change unfccc the intended nationally determined contribution indc in view of the paris conference of parties cop21 the binding target of lowering domestic greenhouse gases emissions by at least 40 by 2030 compared to 1990 levels coupled with long term decarbonisation goals will have profound energy system macroeconomic and policy implications eu targets are qualitatively discussed and quantitatively assessed with the simulation of a reference and an alternative decarbonisation scenario to 2050 simulations are carried out with the technology rich primes energy system model and the gem e3 computable general equilibrium model restructuring of the eu energy system induces changes in the energy mix and production with small effects on the eu gdp 0 4 in 2030 and 1 in 2050 compared to the reference scenario energy efficiency improvements increasing penetration of renewables fuel switching towards natural gas and technical progress in process related to emissions abatement are identified as essential options to the eu indc implementation the electrification of final energy demand particularly transport electrification complemented with decarbonised power supply is found to play a critical role in the successful transition towards a low carbon economy by 2050

when managers cover their posteriors making the decisions the market wants to see the stock market has opinions as to what choices firms should make we show that concern for current share prices may lead managers to make these choices rather than those suggested by their own superior information even when arbitrarily many privately informed firms have to make a similar decision the market s prejudices may still prevail we compare the distortions that arise from share price maximization with those due to herd behavior among profit maximizing firms and show that the former results in strictly less efficient use of information

granger causality rational expectations and aversion to unemployment and inflation this paper presents a new test for rational expectations this is done within the context of public concern or aversion over inflation and unemployment it is found that inflation aversion granger causes inflation but unemployment aversion does not granger cause unemployment this implies both that inflation aversion is partially determined by expected inflation and that such expectations have a rational element however rational expectations of unemployment do not determine unemployment aversion the consequences of these results for political business cycle theory are then examined

review on integrated strategies for energy policy planning and evaluation of ghg mitigation alternatives abstract this review paper is devoted to elaborating the status of different energy policy planning studies and the evaluation of various ghg mitigation studies it includes some of the major developments in global energy scenario status of green house gas ghg emissions issues in the implementation of kyoto protocol and ghg mitigation clean development mechanism cdm and energy scenario especially pertaining to the residential industrial and commercial energy sector in the initial sections the later part of this paper highlights the salient contributions in various literatures pertaining to energy demand forecasting in residential commercial and industrial sector ghg estimation methodologies and ghg mitigation studies in various sectors the success and difficulties in implementing various policy planning practices were also discussed in the paper most of the prominent literature in the area of energy demand and consumption analysis towards effective implementation of ghg mitigation is described in the end a comprehensive comments and recommendations based on the study were furnished

choosing a monetary value of greenhouse gases in assessment tools a comprehensive review there is a societal need for using monetary estimates of social impacts of co2 and other greenhouse gases in different assessment tools such as cost benefit analysis and life cycle assessment a number of estimates are available in the literature since these differ by several orders of magnitude there is ambiguity and confusion about which to use this review aims to give some guidance on this issue the variation in carbon value estimates depends on several uncertain aspects which will remain uncertain including climate sensitivity assumptions about future emissions and decision makers ethical standpoints hence there is no single correct monetary value for co2 it will depend on the ethical standpoint of the user due to this estimates of social costs of co2 emissions cannot be used for calculating an optimal emission level although they can inform such assessments it is suggested that marginal abatement cost values are used for emissions capped by binding targets in short term assessments and that social cost of carbon values should be used for all other emissions benchmark principles for choosing a monetary carbon value are suggested along with associated estimates depending on the choices made with regard to ethical standpoints and assumptions about future emissions and climate sensitivity estimates can be significantly higher than the ones typically used in assessment tools today the estimates need continuous updating and there is need for better understanding and communication around the limitations and uncertainties involved

international and intergenerational environmental externalities we examine a world in which policymakers actions in a given country at a given time have long lived effects on a common resource the global environment we consider the first best in which long lived planners behave cooperatively then examine the allocation of resources when there is non cooperation across countries across time or both finally we analyze the dynamic behavior of the economy along balanced growth paths it is found that while long lived international institutions are necessary to internalize all externalities cooperation at a point in time may be harmful to future generations

health capital and cross country variation in income per capita in the mankiw romer weil model abstract this paper examines the effects of incorporating a proxy for health capital in mankiw romer and weil s empirical growth model results suggest a stronger and more robust relationship between income per capita and health capital than between income per capita and educational human capital

aids and economic growth a human capital approach abstract using a model that combines growth and health capital equations this study analyses the impact of hiv aids on economic growth the econometric results indicate that the epidemic s effects have been substantial in africa the marginal impact on income per capita of a 1 increase in hiv prevalence rate is minus 0 59 even in countries with lower hiv prevalence rates the marginal impacts are non trivial hence while the human and social costs of the hiv aids epidemic are major causes for concern these results indicate that the macroeconomic affects of the hiv aids epidemic are important

urbanization human capital and cross country productivity differences abstract in this paper we empirically examine the effects of health education and urbanization on the total factor productivity tfp of a large number of countries we find that both urbanization and health indicators life expectancy infant mortality rate and the risk of malaria significantly affect tfp education has an insignificant effect on tfp coefficients of indicators of health and urbanization remain highly significant even after controlling for endogeneity

inflation unemployment and public opinion polls it is well known that public opinion polls report that the public regards inflation as a more serious problem than unemployment in this paper we examine public opinion surveys with the aim of discovering what if anything the poll results mean we describe in some detail the questions about inflation and unemployment asked in the surveys and analyze the determinants in both cross section and time series of answers to those questions the typical opinion poll question about inflation and unemployment is which of the two problems inflation or unemployment do you think will cause the more serious economic hardship for people during the next year or so 1 section 1 discusses the possible issues to which opinion poll questions about inflation and unemployment might be relevant section 2 tabulates a variety of questions that have been asked along with the responses and examines the views expressed and their consistency both internal and across different polls section 3 presents a regression analysis of the cross sectional determinants of responses to the michigan poll question cited above while section 4 studies determinants of changes over time

the impact of poor health on total factor productivity a number of recent studies have illustrated the link between health and economic growth this paper argues that a key mechanism through which health affects growth is via total factor productivity tfp we first estimate tfp based on a production function and then estimate the determinants of tfp paying particular attention to three indicators of health that are particularly problematic in developing regions malnutrition malaria and water borne diseases we find the impact of poor health on tfp to be negative significant and robust across a wide variety of specifications

economic instruments for environmental regulation our knowledge about economic incentive approaches to pollution control has grown rapidly in the two decades in which they have received serious analytical attention not only have the theoretical models become more focused and the empirical work more detailed but we have now had over a decade of experience with emissions trading in the u s and emission charges in europe as the world community becomes increasingly conscious of both the need to tighten environmental controls and the local economic perils associated with tighter controls in a highly competitive global marketplace it seems a propitious time to stand back and to organize what we have learned about this practical and promising approach to pollution control that may be especially relevant to current circumstances this paper draws upon economic theory empirical studies and actual experience with implementation to provide a brief overview of some of the major lessons we have learned about two economic incentive approaches emissions tradi copyright 1990 by oxford university press

the impact of demographic change on energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in germany abstract this paper estimates the impact of demographic change on energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in germany since old people display different consumption patterns than young people an increase in the proportion of old people affects overall consumption patterns micro data from a household survey are used to identify age specific consumption patterns and to project the impact of demographic change on the structure of total consumption expenditure up to the year 2030 the resulting final demand vectors are entered into an environmental input output model which allows the calculation of sectoral production energy use and greenhouse gas emissions the model results suggest that until 2030 demographic change raises the share of methane in total greenhouse gas emissions and does not contribute to reducing energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in germany the model is also used to explore the effects of redistributing income between age groups and a policy induced switch from motor vehicle use to public transport

policies to stimulate growth should we invest in health or education empirical studies in the literature on economic growth have focused on the affect of education and yet knowles and owen 1995 1997 found health proxied by life expectancy to be highly statistically significant with education having a modest role this study extends their model and employs variables that are more conducive to policy formulation calorific intake and school enrolment ratios results suggest that reducing undernutrition would only make a modest contribution to economic growth while increasing enrolment ratios especially secondary has a positive and more significant effect policies to increase economic growth should favour investments in education over health

a hotelling model with a ceiling on the stock of pollution abstract environmental agreements such as the kyoto protocol aim to stabilize the amount of carbon in the atmosphere which is mainly caused by the burning of nonrenewable resources such as coal we characterize the solution to the textbook hotelling model when there is a ceiling on the stock of emissions we consider both increasing and decreasing demand for energy we show that when the ceiling is binding both the low cost nonrenewable resource and the high cost renewable resource may be used jointly a key implication is that if energy demand were to decline in the long run we may supplement energy supply through clean renewables to meet the environmental standard but then revert back to using only dirty fossil fuels in the future when the ceiling has become non binding that is the much heralded societal transition to clean energy resources may be short lived

does distribution matter efficiency equity and flexibility in greenhouse gas abatement this paper analyses banking and borrowing ofcarbon emission rights within the framework ofa simple integrated assessment model breaking the world economy in just two regionsit will be shown 1 increasing intertemporal flexibility in greenhouse gasabatement through banking and borrowing ofcarbon emission permits has a positive effecton welfare for regions with a poor endowment incarbon emission rights but negatively affectsrich endowed regions 2 intergenerationalfairness advocates intertemporal flexibility ingreenhouse gas abatement irrespectively of theinitial allocation of carbon rights 3 optimal carbon accumulation is not independentof the initial allocation of carbon rights different initial sharing rules clearlyinfluence the development of atmospheric carbonconcentration

a regional dynamic general equilibrium model of alternative climate change strategies outcomes and noncooperative equilibria this study finds that cooperative policies show much higher levels of emissions reductions than do noncooperative strategies that there are substantial differences in the levels of controls in both the cooperative and the noncooperative policies among different countries and that high income countries may be the major losers from cooperation jel h41 q4 q2 q20

inflation and unemployment aversion this study examines people s aversion to inflation and unemployment in the united kingdom the little empirical work which has been done in this area by hibbs 1979 and fischer and huizinga 1982 is based on american data and tends to support the general view that it is creditors who are most concerned with inflation the time series data on which the first part of this study is based were obtained from gallup s monthly quota sample survey of about 1000 individuals the data in march june september and december were taken a representative of the first second third and fourth quarters respectively and cover the period 1970 4 1983 4 the specific question asked was what would you say is the most urgent problem facing the country at this present time the unemployment and inflation aversion data were found from those answering unemployment and the cost of living respectively other options open to people varied over time and included strikes ireland housing immigration the fuel shortage and defence none was continuously mentioned throughout the period although several did become temporarily very important an individual s aversion to the i th issue can be expressed as a linear function of a vector of attributes zi a coefficient vector bi and ui a random error term reflecting differences in individual characteristics provided the error terms are statistically independent weibull variables then it can be shown that the logged ratio ofthe sample probabilities that the most important problem is inflation p 1 or unemployment p2 is

game theoretic models for climate change negotiations abstract negotiations to reduce greenhouse gas accumulation in the atmosphere are modeled as extensive games of perfect information various solution concepts such as nash equilibrium reaction function equilibrium correlated equilibrium and bargaining solutions are applied analyzed and computed special reduction techniques are used when the size of the game tree becomes excessive a new solution concept the tree correlated equilibrium is also introduced main features of an excel add in designed to compute various solutions are briefly described and a sample policy analysis for a special negotiating scenario is discussed

integrating economic analysis and the science of climate instability abstract scientific understanding of climate change and climate instability has undergone a revolution in the past decade with the discovery of numerous past climate transitions so rapid and so unlike the expectation of smooth climate changes that they would have previously been unbelievable to the scientific community models commonly used by economists to assess the wisdom of adapting to human induced climate change rather than averting it lack the ability to incorporate this new scientific knowledge here we identify and explain the nature of recent scientific advances and describe the key ways in which failure to reflect new knowledge in economic analysis skews the results of that analysis this includes the understanding that economic optimization models reliant on convexity are inherently unable to determine an optimal policy solution it is incumbent on economists to understand and to incorporate the new science in their models and on climatologists and other scientists to understand the basis of economic models so that they can assist in this essential effort

industrial output restriction and the kyoto protocol an input output approach with application to canada the objective of this paper is to assess the economic impacts of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by decreasing industrial output in canada to a level that will meet the target set out in the kyoto protocol the study uses an ecological economic input output model combining economic components valued in monetary terms with ecologic components ghg emissions expressed in physical terms economic and greenhouse gas emissions data for canada are computed in the same sectoral disaggregation three policy scenarios are considered the first one uses the direct emission coefficients to allocate the reduction in industrial output while the other two use the direct plus indirect emission coefficients in the first two scenarios the reduction in industrial sector output is allocated uniformly across sectors while it is allocated to the 12 largest emitting industries in the last one the estimated impacts indicate that the results vary with the different allocation methods the third policy scenario allocation to the 12 largest emitting sectors is the most cost effective of the three as the impacts of the kyoto protocol reduces gross domestic product by 3 1 compared to 24 and 8 1 in the first two scenarios computed economic costs should be considered as upper bounds because the model assumes immediate adjustment to the kyoto protocol and because flexibility mechanisms are not incorporated the resulting upper bound impact of the third scenario may seem to contradict those who claim that the kyoto protocol would place an unbearable burden on the canadian economy c 2008 elsevier b v all rights reserved

basic needs government debt and economic growth this paper investigates the relationships between basic needs and economic growth where the interactions between output health nutrition and education are explicitly simultaneous we find a unidirectional relationship that improving basic welfare contributes strongly to labour productivity change but a clear reverse causation only from growth to nutrition there are substantial differences in the patterns of simultaneous interactions at different income and welfare levels there are strong self reinforcing effects of literacy and debt service on poverty making it difficult for poor countries to rectify their situation channelling resources towards improving health education and nutrition could bring dramatic economic returns