an econometric investigation of capital flight this paper seeks to give a comprehensive empirical survey of private capital flight from developing countries first three alternative calcualtions of net private capital outflows are presented for 22 developing countries during 1978 85 it turns out that several of these countries had experienced major capital flight second using an economtric model which combines time series and cross section data a portfolio model is estimated in order to find some of the reasons for capital flight third on quarterly time series capital flight from mexico is determined in a time jseries model this analysis gives further insight into the causes of capital flight the overall result from both studies is that changes in the expected relative rate of return on assets between the foreign and domestic market are a major cause of capital flight

do employee spinoffs learn markets from their parents evidence from international trade abstract it is well established that employee spinoffs learn their parents technologies but little is known about their demand side learning we exploit the identification in international trade data of parent markets countries to investigate whether exporting employee spinoffs of exporting parents have an advantage in accessing their parents markets over exporting comparison firms well positioned to learn those markets at arm s length we find that controlling for the greater overlap of spinoffs with their parents export products at entry spinoffs access 51 percent more parent markets than exporting firms in the same 4 digit industries and municipalities as the parents this advantage shrinks monotonically with time becoming statistically insignificant four years after entry indicating that intrafirm learning provides spinoffs with a four year head start over learning at arm s length spinoffs do not overlap more than comparison firms with parent markets that the parents did not serve at spinoff entry providing evidence against the alternative hypothesis that product overlap inadequately controls for greater technological similarity of spinoffs to parents firm entry into parent markets predicted by spinoff status does not lead to entry into adjacent markets the following year

empirical implications of alternative models of firm dynamics abstract this paper considers two models of firm behavior that allow for heterogeneity among firms idiosyncratic or firm specific sources of uncertainty and discrete outcomes exit and or entry both the characteristics of firm level panel data sets and the nature of the questions we characteristically ask of them imply that models with these features are likely to underlie most detailed empirical work on microdata sets the models we consider are a bayesian learning model due to jovanovic 20 and a model of research and exploration due to ericson and pakes 11 the paper provides a simple set of empirical procedures to help determine which if either of these two models might be appropriate for alternative data sets we conclude by checking for the implications of the two models on an eight year panel of wisconsin firms the results indicate that one model is consistent with the data on manufacturing firms while the other is consistent with the data on retail trade journal of economic literature classification numbers c52 l60 l80

the effect of financial liberalization on capital flight in african economies summary in this paper we assess the effects of financial liberalization on capital flight in african economies a portfolio model in which capital flight is one of the assets is estimated on a sample of nine african countries for 1970 91 the estimation results suggest that financial liberalization induces a reduction in capital flight after augmenting the model with submodels for the banking sector the government sector and the external sector we conduct simulation experiments involving an interest rate deregulation a decrease in reserve requirements and a change in exchange rate policy the simulation results show that capital flight is reduced by all the three financial liberalization measures the effects however are very small considering both the estimation and simulation results we conclude that financial liberalization policies are useful in attempts to reduce capital flight in african economies but per se the policies may not be the panacea

is success hereditary evidence on the performance of spawned ventures a common phenomenon in entrepreneurship is that employees turn away from employment to found their own businesses prior literature discusses the former employers characteristics that influence the creation of entrepreneurial ventures an investigation of whether these characteristics also affect the success of the spawned ventures is missing so far this paper contributes to the literature by showing that entrepreneurial ventures spawned by well performing firms are financially more successful than ventures stemming from poorly performing firms this suggests that spawned entrepreneurs are able to exploit valuable knowledge from their previous employers which impacts their ventures performance positively the analysis is based on a linked employee employer data set for the netherlands for the period 1999 2004

capital flight in the presence of domestic borrowing evidence from eastern european economies summary we estimate capital flight from 10 central and eastern european countries for the period 1996 2009 capital flight from the transition economies is mainly an economic phenomenon driven by differences in interest rates and investors perceptions of economic conditions in their countries as well as by the ease with which they are able to obtain funds that can be transferred overseas through domestic loans and capital inflows domestic credit expansion is an important source of financing for capital flight paradoxically financial liberalization has fueled rather than reduced capital flight by reducing its costs and increasing the funds that can be moved abroad

china s capital flight pre and post crisis experiences abstract we study china s illicit capital flow and document a change in its pattern specifically we observe that china s capital flight especially the one measured by trade misinvoicing exhibits a weakened response in the post 2007 period to the covered interest disparity which is a theoretical determinant of capital flight further analyses indicate that the post 2007 behavior is influenced by quantitative easing and other factors including exchange rate variability capital control policy and trade frictions our study confirms that china s capital flight pattern and its determinants are affected by the crisis event further both the canonical and additional explanatory variables have different effects on different measures of capital flight these results highlight the challenges of managing china s capital flight which requires information on the period and the type of capital flight that the policy authorities would like to target

capital flight and political risk abstract this paper provides the first serious attempt to examine the relationship between political risk and capital flight for a large set of developing countries the outcomes of the analysis show that in most cases political risk variables do have a statistically robust relationship to capital flight once domestic and international macroeconomic circumstances are added at least when the robustness test as proposed by sala i martin is applied we conclude that on the basis of the analysis in this paper we have found support for the hypothesis that political risk leads to increased capital flight

the origin of spin offs a typology of corporate and academic spin offs we provide a typology of corporate and academic spin off types distinguishing spin offs involving new ventures from those that concern existing activities we summarize the papers published in this special issue relating them to the typology we develop we conclude by developing an agenda for further research on spin offs

agency costs and innovation abstract stylized facts indicate that small firms are responsible for a disproportionate share of innovative research there are many possible explanations for this fact the paper seeks to understand this phenomenon as the outcome of an optimal assignment of tasks across individuals and organizations it is shown that incentive costs associated with a given task depend on the total portfolio of tasks that an individual or an organization undertakes mixing hard to measure activities innovation with easy to measure activities routine is particularly costly since it will either lead to misallocation of attention across tasks or to misallocation of risk larger firms are at a comparative disadvantage in conducting highly innovative research because of the costs associated with managing a heterogeneous set of tasks it is further argued that optimal organizational responses to coordination and control of routine tasks will lead to bureaucratization within the firm and to financial constraints imposed by capital markets both of which are hostile to innovation

firm spin offs in denmark 1981 2000 patterns of entry and exit abstract this paper adds large sample evidence on the extent to which the likelihood of business failure or success is related to relationships between parent firms and their off spring for this purpose we make use of an exhaustive matched employer employee data set covering the entire danish private sector in years 1981 to 2000 to study firm entry and exit special focus is on spin offs a particular group of small entrants which are founded by groups of persons originating from the same former workplace we estimate a multinomial logit model in order to examine which characteristics of the founders and the parent firms increase the probability of spinning off next we carry out a duration analysis of the subsequent transitions of the spin offs and compare their exit risks with those of other entrant firms which have less strong parent progeny relationships in terms of worker flows

new firm survival new results using a hazard function a limitation of audretsch s 1991 study of new firm survival was the level of aggregation to industries this precluded linking establishment specific characteristics such as organizational structure and size to post entry performance the purpose of this paper is to relate the post entry performance of individual establishments not only to their technological and market structure environments but also to establishment specific characteristics we do this by estimating a hazard duration function for more than 12 000 individual establishments in u s manufacturing started in 1976 by tracking their subsequent performance over a ten year period we conclude that establishment specific characteristics which audretsch was not able to capture in his earlier study play an important role in shaping the exposure to risk confronting new establishments copyright 1995 by mit press

post entry behaviour and the cycle evidence from germany abstract based on a rich database on establishments in western germany the paper aims at characterising the relationship between on the one hand growth and exit of entering cohorts and on the other hand aggregate business fluctuations a main finding is that exit is not responsive to the cycle which is at odds with views of recessions as times of cleansing where creative destruction processes occur the growth of survivors also displays little cyclical sensitivity but tends to become more responsive to aggregate business fluctuations as the cohort ages two possible explanations for this role of age on the cyclical sensitivity of surviving units are offered in the final section of the paper the first draws on the product specialisation of young and more established plants the second on the role of irreversible investment and industry selection

the terms of trade between the united kingdom and british india 1858 1947 abstract the commodity terms of trade of the united kingdom with british india for 1858 1947 are calculated unit value indexes for a sample containing over three quarters of uk india trade indicate a slight improvement for the united kingdom from 1858 to 1917 this improvement was likely attributable to falling transport costs for british imports and was therefore not associated with a decline in india s terms of trade with britain for 1917 47 there was substantial uk terms of trade improvement a rise not due solely to declining transport costs and which ceteris paribus thus implied that india s terms of trade with the united kingdom deteriorated the 1917 47 uk improvement brought the amount of increase for the whole 1858 1947 period to an annual average of almost 1

longitudinal firm level data problems and solutions empirical measures of firm and employment dynamics based on administrative datasets are biased due to missing links in the longitudinal observation of firms this paper presents a systematic overview of the problems and evaluates two prevailing solutions we quantify the biases in a set of widely used empirical measures and show which estimates are most sensitive to missing linkages the biases are found to be especially large in the size distribution of entrants and exits in firm level growth estimates for medium and large firms and in job reallocation measures we show that an employee flow linkage method is more effective in reducing bias than a traditional link method often used by statistical agencies a consistent approach is developed for imputing firm level growth measures of linked firms the analysis is carried out using a longitudinal dataset for belgium and discussed from an international perspective

toward an integrated approach to industry dynamics and labor mobility industrial dynamics and labour mobility are two fields of economic research that have developed fast in recent years but along what are essentially separate lines this paper shows that the processes those two fields deal with can be highly interdependent and demonstrates the usefulness of and the opportunity for an integrated approach to the dynamics of industries and labour mobility it concludes with a list of questions that inform a research agenda dedicated to such approach

job machine think tank or both what makes corporate spin offs different one way through which knowledge and technology transfer can take place is through the foundation of new firms by former employees of incumbent private firms in this paper we examine whether knowledge transferred from the incumbent causally affect employment growth and post entry innovation activities of the new firm we focus on start ups for which a new idea a new product technology production process or management concept which the founder developed during her work as an employee was essential for setting up the new business these firms are denoted corporate spin offs using data from german start ups founded in the period from 2005 to 2008 we apply nearest neighbour propensity score matching we find that corporate spin offs outperform other start ups founded by former employees of incumbent private firms that are not based on an essential idea in terms of post entry innovation activities however we cannot show that corporate spin offs benefit from the transferred idea in terms of employment growth we conclude that a transferred idea is primarily an input factor and a stimulus for subsequent post entry innovation activities of corporate spin offs

the boundaries of the firm revisited why do firms exist what is their function and what determines their scope these remain the central questions in the economics of organization they are also central questions for business executives and corporate strategists the worldwide volume of corporate mergers and acquisitions exceeded 1 6 trillion in 1997 it is hard to imagine that so much time effort and investment bankers fees would be spent on adjusting firm boundaries unless there was some underlying economic gain indeed the exceptional levels of merger and acquisition activity over the past two decades are a strong indication that economically significant forces do determine organizational boundaries the study of firm boundaries originated with the famous essay by coase 1937 who raised the question of why we observe so much economic activity inside formal organizations if as economists commonly argue markets are such powerful and effective mechanisms for allocating scarce resources coase s answer was in terms of the costs of transacting in a world of imperfect information when the transaction costs of market exchange are high it may be less costly to coordinate production through a formal organization than through a market in large part thanks to the work of williamson 1975 1985 recent decades have seen a resurgence of interest in coase s fundamental insight that firm boundaries can be explained by efficiency considerations our understanding of firm boundaries has been sharpened by identifying more precisely the nature and sources of transaction costs in different circumstances in the process the focus of

economic history and modern india redefining the link this paper argues that to restore the link between economic history and modern india a different narrative of indian economic history is needed an exclusive focus on colonialism as the driver of india s economic history misses those continuities that arise from economic structure or local conditions in fact market oriented british imperial policies did initiate a process of economic growth based on the production of goods intensive in labor and natural resources however productive capacity per worker was constrained by low rates of private and public investment in infrastructure excessively low rates of schooling social inequalities based on caste and gender and a delayed demographic transition to lower birthrates and the resultant heavy demographic burden placed on physical capital and natural resources

unemployment insurance and unemployment spells this paper tests the effects of the level and length of unemployment insurance benefits on unemployment durations the paper particularly studies individual behavior during the weeks just prior to when benefits lapse higher unemployment insurance benefits are found to have a strong negative effect on the probability of leaving unemployment however the probability of leaving unemployment rises dramatically just prior to when benefits lapse individual data are used with accurate information of spell durations and the level and length of benefits the semiparametric estimation techniques used in the paper yield more plausible estimates than conventional approaches and provide useful diagnostics copyright 1990 by the econometric society

public debts and private assets explaining capital flight from sub saharan african countries we investigate the determinants of capital flight from 30 sub saharan african countries including 24 countries classified as severely indebted low income countries for the period 1970 1996 the econometric analysis reveals that external borrowing is positively and significantly related to capital flight suggesting that to a large extent capital flight is debt fueled we estimate that for every dollar of external borrowing in the region roughly 80 cents flowed back as capital flight in the same year capital flight also exhibits a high degree of persistence in the sense that past capital flight is correlated with current and future capital flight the growth rate differential between the african country and its oecd trading partners is negatively related to capital flight we also explore the effects of several other factors inflation fiscal policy indicators the interest rate differential exchange rate appreciation financial development and indicators of the political environment and governance we discuss the implications of the results for debt relief and for policies aimed at preventing capital flight and attracting private capital held abroad

whither the terms of trade an elaboration of the prebisch singer hypothesis movements in the prices of primary products and manufactured goods are analysed using a model that introduces differences in wage and price determination between primary production and manufacturing wages and prices in primary production are treated as competitively determined while prices and wages in manufacturing are determined by mark up pricing and union employer bargaining respectively the objective is to capture the influence of structural differences between manufacturing and primary production on the terms of trade between industrialised and developing worlds as discussed in the seminal contributions to the development literature by raul prebisch and hans singer the model is estimated using price and wage data from the post world war ii period support is found for the prebisch singer hypothesis however our estimates suggest that during periods of particularly rapid manufac turing growth there have been intervals of net improvement in the terms of trade of primary producers

the post entry performance of new small firms in german manufacturing industries while recent years have witnessed a growing interest in research on market entry by new firms evidence regarding their postentry performance is scarce this paper uses longitudinal data for small firms that entered german manufacturing industries between 1979 and 1982 and monitors their performance until 1990 entrants face a high risk of failure hazard rates tend to increase during the first years and to decrease afterwards decline of employment in a cohort due to exits and shrinking firms is compensated by growing survivors no clear cut nexus between start up size and probability of survival shows up copyright 1994 by blackwell publishing ltd

trends in the terms of trade of primary commodities 1900 1982 the controversy and its origins primary commodity markets have offered an opportunity for much economic debate on a number of key issues first secularly declining terms of trade of primary commodities are used to explain the widening gap between developing ldcs and developed countries dcs second they are regarded as a contributing factor to the creation of a structural condition of unequal exchange between a dominating industrial center and a dominated agrarian periphery and third they are thought to be a source of instability often causing financial vulnerability to foreign exchange equilibria and fragility to international market institutions

the prebisch singer hypothesis a reappraisal independent of stationarity hypotheses time series behaviour of the relative price of primary commodities raul prebisch i950 and hans singer i950 believed that the long term trend of primary commodity prices was negative the latter in an interesting discussion of the above quandary pp 482 3 viewed rises in primary commodity prices as purely temporary sources of surplus that offered short lived opportunities to increase industrial investment these opportunities were missed by private investors who instead increased primary sector investment in such circumstances because all private activity tends to be governed by the price

capital flight to germany two alternative measures abstract we use two measures to study two capital flight channels for germany one measure is based on the concept of trade misinvoicing and one on net claims and liabilities in the eurosystem of central banks for both measures we propose refinements to enhance the assessment of capital flight we find that capital flight towards germany via these two channels has been quite sizable in the recent decade and can tally to about 2 of gdp annually regarding their determinants we show that the two capital flight measures are driven by both common and measure specific factors traditional determinants such as covered interest differentials only play a limited role while crisis specific factors such as economic policy uncertainty the ecb collateral policy as well as currency misalignment are driving factors of the investors apparent flight to safety behavior

terms of trade shocks and economic performance 1870 1940 prebisch and singer revisited debate over trends in the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactures their causes and their impact has dominated the literature for more than a century classical economists claimed that the terms of trade of primary commodities should improve since land and natural resources are always in inelastic supply following the great depression a new view emerged what came to be known as the prebisch singer thesis was instead that the terms of trade for primary products had deteriorated up to the 1950s the subsequent literature has almost exclusively and obsessively asked whether a deterioration has actually taken place over the 130 years following 1870 nowhere in this literature has the impact of these terms of trade shocks on long run growth been assessed although it is certainly full of lively speculation and debate this paper fills part of this empirical gap by constructing a country specific panel data base 1870 1940 by documenting terms of trade trends by country and region and finally by estimating the impact of the price shocks on long run economic performance we find the impact to have been asymmetric between center and periphery this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item