the effect of cash injections evidence from the 1980s farm debt crisis what is the effect of cash injections during financial crises exploiting county level variation arising from random weather shocks during the 1980s farm debt crisis we analyze and measure the effect of local cash flow shocks on the real and financial sector we show that such cash flow shocks have significant impact on a host of economic outcomes including land values loan delinquency rates the probability of bank failure employment and wages estimates of the effect of local cash flow shocks on county income levels during the financial crisis yield a multiplier of 1 63

responsiveness of crop yield and acreage to prices and climate we investigate the effect of crop price and climate variables on rainfed corn and soybean yields and acreage in the united states using a large panel dataset for the 1977 2007 period instrumental variables are used to control for endogeneity of prices in yield and acreage regressions while allowing for spatially auto correlated errors we find that an increase in corn price has a statistically significant positive impact on corn yield but the effect of soybean price on soybean yields is not statistically significant the estimated price elasticities of corn yield and acreage are 0 23 and 0 45 respectively of the increase in corn supply caused by an increase in corn price we find that 33 8 is due to price induced yield enhancement and 66 2 is due to price induced acreage expansion we also find that the impact of climate change on corn production ranges from 7 to 41 and on soybean ranges from 8 to 45 depending on the climate change scenarios time horizon and global climate models used to predict climate change we show that the aggregate net impact of omitting price variables is an overestimation of the effect of climate change on corn yield by up to 9 and on soybean yield by up to 15

adaptation to climate change a review through a development economics lens abstract this paper looks at adaptation to climate change from the point of view of poor households since the development literature has firmly established the role of weather risk as a source of income volatility for the poor and climate change is expected to increase this risk we review the range of risk coping mechanisms available to poorer households with a focus on possible barriers to adaptation we ask both how government interventions affect the set of options available for adaptation and risk coping and also what these adaptive responses imply for the prospects of sustainable development support for adaptation can involve efforts to make existing locations livelihoods and forms of production more resilient to climate risk in situ adaptation or reductions in vulnerability through the geographical and sectoral mobility of the poor transformational adaptation our review shows how successful adaptation will need to strike a balance between the two forms of adaptation avoiding locking in unsustainable practices in locations that are already marginal from an economic perspective and taking account of broader socio economic trends already taking place in many developing countries such as population growth and urbanisation we also highlight important considerations for policy makers which to date have been relatively neglected in the literature in particular related to the dynamic interaction between adaptation and sustainable development

adjustment costs from environmental change abstract the paper is concerned with the case whereby the distribution of a firm s productivity shocks changes without the knowledge of the firm over time the firm learns about the nature and extent of the change in the distribution of the shock and adjusts incurring adjustment costs in the process the long run loss in profits due to the shift in the distribution we term the equilibrium response the transitory loss in profits incurred while the firm is learning about the distribution shift is termed the adjustment cost the theory is then applied to the problem of measuring adjustment costs in the face of imperfectly observed climate change in agriculture the empirical part of the paper involves estimating a restricted profit function for agricultural land in a five state region of the midwest us as a function of prices land characteristics actual weather realizations and expected weather we then simulate the effect of an unobserved climate shock where learning about the climate shock is by observing the weather and updating prior knowledge using bayes rule we find adjustment costs to climate change are 1 4 of annual land rents

the effects of potential land development on agricultural land prices abstract we conduct a national scale analysis of the determinants of agricultural land values the theoretical basis for the study is a spatial city model with stochastic returns to future land development the empirical model of agricultural land prices is estimated with a cross section on approximately three thousand counties in the contiguous us the results provide evidence that option values associated with irreversible and uncertain land development are capitalized into current farmland values for each county we decompose the current agricultural land value into components measuring rents from agricultural production and rents from future land development

a forward looking ricardian approach do land markets capitalize climate change forecasts abstract the hedonic pricing method is one of the main approaches used to estimate the economic value of attributes that affect the market price of an asset this method is routinely used in environmental economics to derive the economic valuation of environmental attributes such as air pollution and water quality for example the ricardian approach is based on a hedonic regression of land values on historical climate variables forecasts of future climate can then be employed to estimate the future costs of climate change we show that this approach is only valid if current land markets ignore climate forecasts while this assumption was defensible decades ago when this literature first emerged it is reasonable to hypothesize that information on climate change is so pervasive today that markets may already price in expectations of future climate change indeed we show empirically that agricultural land markets in the united states now capitalize expectations about future climate change we derive a straightforward empirical correction to the standard ricardian approach called the forward looking ricardian approach that can be implemented with readily available data accounting for market beliefs decreases the estimated magnitude of climate change damages by 50 62

quantifying economic damages from climate change author s auffhammer m abstract climate scientists have spent billions of dollars and eons of supercomputer time studying how increased concentrations of greenhouse gases and changes in the reflectivity of the earth s surface affect dimensions of the climate system relevant to human society surface temperature precipitation humidity and sea levels recent incarnations of physical climate models have become sophisticated enough to be able to simulate intensities and frequencies of some extreme events like tropical storms under different warming scenarios in a stark juxtaposition the efforts involved in and the public resources targeted at understanding how these physical changes translate into economic impacts are disproportionately smaller with most of the major models being developed and maintained with little to no public funding support the goal of this paper is first to shed light on how mostly economists have gone about calculating the social cost of carbon for regulatory purposes and to provide an overview of the past and currently used estimates in the second part i will focus on where empirical economists may have the highest value added in this enterprise specifically the calibration and estimation of economic damage functions which map weather patterns transformed by climate change into economic benefits and damages a broad variety of econometric methods have recently been used to parameterize the dose climate response economic outcome functions the paper seeks to provide an accessible and comprehensive overview of how economists think about parameterizing damage functions and quantifying the economic damages of climate change

the economic impacts of climate change evidence from agricultural output and random fluctuations in weather fisher et al 2012 hereafter fhrs have uncovered coding and data errors in our paper deschenes and greenstone 2007 hereafter dg we acknowledge and are embarrassed by these mistakes we are grateful to fhrs for uncovering them we hope that this reply will also contribute to advancing the literature on the vital question of the impact of climate change on the us agricultural sector fhrs main critiques of dg are as follows i there are errors in the weather data and climate change projections used by dg ii the climate change projections are based on the hadley 2 model and scenarios rather than the more recent hadley 3 model and scenarios iii standard errors are biased due to spatial correlation iv the inclusion of state by year fixed effects does not leave enough weather variation to obtain meaningful estimates of the relationship between agriculture profits and weather v storage and inventory adjustment in response to yield shocks invalidate the use of annual profit data and vi fhrs argue that a better specified hedonic model produces robust estimates unlike the results reported in dg four of these critiques have little basis and we respond to them here in the introduction specifically with respect to ii the more recent daily climate predictions were not available when we wrote dg nevertheless the most important issue is providing the reliable estimates of climate change and in this note we report estimates based on the climate model we used in dg and a more recent one that we gained access to in the meantime iii in the primary table on agricultural profits dg reports two sets of standard errors with the first clustered at the county level and the second based on a variance covariance matrix that accounts for spatial correlation using the method proposed in conley 1999 thus the claim of fhrs 2012 seems overblown nevertheless to ease comparisons of papers in this literature this note will adopt the fhrs convention of reporting estimated standard errors clustered at the county and state levels we find that inference is largely unaffected by the choice between these different assumptions about the variance covariance matrix

the effect of ambiguous risk and coordination on farmers adaptation to climate change a framed field experiment the risk of losses of income and productive means due to adverse weather can differ significantly among farmers sharing a productive landscape and is of course hard to estimate or even guesstimate empirically moreover the costs associated with investments in reduced vulnerability to climatic events are likely to exhibit economies of scope we explore the implications of these characteristics on farmer s decisions to adapt to climate change using a framed field experiment applied to coffee farmers in costa rica as expected we find high levels of risk aversion but even using that as a baseline we further find that farmers behave even more cautiously when the setting is characterized by unknown or ambiguous risk i e poor or non reliable risk information secondly we find that farmers to a large extent coordinated their decisions to secure a lower adaptation cost and that communication among farmers strongly facilitated coordination

will u s agriculture really benefit from global warming accounting for irrigation in the hedonic approach will u s agriculture really benefit from global warming accounting for irrigation in the hedonic approach wolfram schlenker w michael hanemann and anthony c fisher there has been a lively debate about the potential impact of global climate change on u s agriculture most of the early agro economic studies predict large damages see for example richard m adams 1989 harry m kaiser et al 1993 and adams et al 1995 in an innovative paper robert mendelsohn william d nordhaus and daigee shaw 1994 hereafter mns propose a new approach using the variation in temperature and precipitation across u s counties to estimate a reduced form hedonic equation with the value of farmland as the dependent variable a change in temperature and or precipitation is then associated with a change in farmland value which can be interpreted as the impact of climate change adams et al 1998 characterize the hedonic approach as a spatial analogue approach and acknowledge that the strength of the spatial analogue approach is that structural changes and farm responses are implicit in the analysis freeing the analyst from the burden of estimating the e ects of climate change on particular region speci c crops and farmer responses on the other hand one of the potential disadvantages of the hedonic approach is that it is a partial equilibrium analysis i e agricultural prices are assumed to remain constant 1 while year to year uctuations in annual weather conditions certainly have the potential to impact current commodity prices especially for crops produced only in a relatively localized area such as citrus fruits which are grown mainly in california and florida changes in long run weather patterns i e changes in climate might have a smaller e ect on commodity prices because of the greater potential for economic adaptation particularly shifts in growing regions 2 the hedonic approach as implemented by mns predicts that existing agricultural land on average might be more productive and hence result in bene ts for u s farmers 3 the hedonic approach has received considerable attention in our judgment in part because the conclusions are at variance with those of some other studies

simultaneous offers bargaining with a mediator abstract an arbitrator is often introduced into bargaining to avoid disagreement the arbitrator s role is to impose some agreement when negotiators cannot reach an agreement however in models with an arbitrator a fair agreement for negotiators is eliminated from equilibrium outcomes if the arbitrator is biased to avoid disagreement without eliminating the achievability of a fair agreement in equilibrium we consider introducing a mediator while an arbitrator imposes an agreement a mediator can only give advice we analyze a simultaneous offers bargaining model with a mediator and obtain the following desirable results first disagreement is not supported as an outcome of a stationary subgame perfect equilibrium sspe second even if a mediator is biased the fair agreement in the sense of the nash bargaining solution nbs is always one of the sspe agreements finally if a mediator is fair negotiators always reach an agreement with the nbs in sspe

downside versus symmetric measures of uncertainty in natural resource portfolio design to manage climate change uncertainty recent work uses markowitz s mean variance framework to identify efficient allocations of conservation activity across subregions of a planning landscape to minimize climate change induced uncertainty in future conservation benefits we replace variance with a downside measure of uncertainty and compare the resulting portfolios of conservation activity and uncertainty expected value results against those generated by the mean variance approach results illustrate that conservation agents can manage climate changed induced uncertainty in future conservation outcomes more efficiently using our framework when they are particularly averse to downside uncertainty and when predicted future conservation outcomes within subregions across their planning horizon exhibit skewed distributions

perfect equilibria in a model of bargaining with arbitration abstract we consider an alternating offer bargaining model in which the players may agree to call in an arbitrator in case of disagreement the main message of our study is that the mere presence of an arbitrator who can only become active with the consent of both parties in the background of negotiations may entirely drive their outcome we compare our results with those obtained in models with outside options journal of economic literature classification number c78

geography of crop yield skewness analysis of crop yield distributions provides insights into better understanding how natural resources shape agricultural productivity this study seeks to provide a rigorous theoretical and empirical understanding of the effects of exogenous geographic and climatic factors on the first three moments of crop yields with focus on the third moment we hypothesize that exogenous factors having beneficial effects on crop production should make crop yield distributions less positively or more negatively skewed we employ a large crop insurance data set for corn soybean and wheat to find general support for our natural resources determines skewness hypothesis the proposed statistical method optimally uses correlations between the first three moments it significantly improves estimation performance over existing methods including the linear moment model which has been commonly applied in the literature

the impact of global warming on agriculture a ricardian analysis reply we measure the economic impact of climate on land prices using cross sectional data on climate farmland prices and other economic and geophysical data for almost 3 000 counties in the united states we find that higher temperatures in all seasons except autumn reduce average farm values while more precipitation outside of autumn increases farm values applying the model to a global warming scenario shows a significantly lower estimated impact of global warming on u s agriculture than the traditional production function approach and in one case suggests that even without co sub 2 fertilization global warming may have economic benefits for agriculture 16 refs 5 figs 5 tabs

holiday effects and stock returns further evidence this paper provides further evidence of the holiday effect in stock returns and additional insight into the effect this paper reports abnormally high returns on the trading day before holidays in all three of the major stock markets in the u s the nyse amex and nasdaq the holiday effect is also present in the u k and japanese stock markets even though each country has different holidays and institutional arrangements this study finds that the holiday effects in the u k and japanese stock markets are independent of the holiday effect in the u s stock market unlike the other seasonal patterns in stock returns such as january and weekend effects this investigation of size decile portfolios shows that the size effect is not present in mean returns on preholidays

climate change irrigation and israeli agriculture will warming be harmful the authors use a ricardian model to test the relationship between annual net revenues and climate across israeli farms they find that it is important to include the amount of irrigation water available to each farm in order to measure the response of farms to climate with irrigation water omitted the model predicts that climate change is strictly beneficial but with water included the model predicts that only modest climate changes are beneficial while drastic climate change in the long run will be harmful using the atmospheric oceanic global circulation models scenarios the authors show that farm net revenue is expected to increase by 16 percent in 2020 while in 2100 farm net revenue is expected to drop by 60 390 percent varying between the different scenarios although israel has a relatively warm climate a mild increase in temperature is beneficial due to the ability to supply international markets with farm products early in the season the findings lead to the conclusion that securing water rights to the farmers and international trade agreements can be important policy measures to help farmers adapt to climate change

the role of mediation in peacemaking and peacekeeping negotiations abstract we develop a model of bargaining that provides a rationale for the difference in the method of negotiation depending on the nature of the conflict we distinguish those negotiations that take place previous to a potential conflict peacekeeping and negotiations inside the conflict peacemaking in these contexts we study the role of a mediator who tries to achieve a certain balance between the efficiency of the agreement and the equality of the final sharing we show that the credibility of the mediator comes from her willingness to impose delays in the negotiation even if that implies costs we also find how the player with a weak bargaining position in a conflict can strategically profit from the mediator s quest for equality finally we show how the capacity of the mediator to induce a higher equality in the sharing is always higher in a peacemaking situation than in a peacekeeping one

more than mean effects modeling the effect of climate on the higher order moments of crop yields this article proposes the use of moment functions and maximum entropy techniques as a flexible approach for estimating conditional crop yield distributions we present a moment based model that extends previous approaches and is easily estimated using standard econometric estimators predicted moments under alternative regimes are used as constraints in a maximum entropy framework to analyze the distributional impacts of switching regimes an empirical application for arkansas mississippi and texas upland cotton demonstrates how climate and irrigation affect the shape of the yield distribution and allows us to illustrate several advantages of our moment based maximum entropy approach

designing climate mitigation policy this us paper provides an exhaustive review of critical issues in the design of climate mitigation policy by pulling together key findings and controversies from diverse literatures on mitigation costs damage valuation policy instrument choice technological innovation and international climate policy the authors begin with the broadest issue of how high assessments suggest the near and medium term price on greenhouse gases would need to be both under cost effective stabilization of global climate and under net benefit maximization or pigouvian emissions pricing the remainder of the paper focuses on the appropriate scope of regulation issues in policy instrument choice complementary technology policy and international policy architectures

non cooperative bargaining theory an introduction the paper provides an informal introduction to some of the main themes of the recent literature on non cooperative or sequential bargaining models it focuses in particular on the relationship between the new approach and the traditional axiomatic approach exemplified by nash bargaining theory it illustrates the new insights offered by the non cooperative approach by reference to a detailed analysis of the manner in which the presence of an outside option available to one of the parties will affect the negotiated outcome finally the difficulties which arise in extending this analysis to two person bargaining with incomplete information and to n person bargaining are discussed this is a revised version of the fourth review of economic studies lecture presented in april 1985 at the joint meeting of the association of university teachers of economics and the royal economic society held in oxford the choice of lecturer is made by a panel whose members are currently professors hahn mirrlees and nobay and the paper is refereed in the usual way this paper aims to provide an informal and elementary introduction to an approach to bargaining which has received a great deal of attention over the past few years the approach involves writing down some particular sequence of moves offers and replies to be made over time in the course of negotiations and then looking for a non cooperative equilibrium in the game thus specified in practice a perfect equilibrium or in games of incomplete information a sequential equilibrium while the approach appears at first sight to be very different in spirit from the traditional axiomatic approach in which a bargaining solution is specified by appealing to a number of general requirements which are deemed appropriate on the basis of some a priori considerations the two approaches are in fact complementary while the

what do we learn from the weather the new climate economy literature a rapidly growing body of research applies panel methods to examine how temperature precipitation and windstorms influence economic outcomes these studies focus on changes in weather realizations over time within a given spatial area and demonstrate impacts on agricultural output industrial output labor productivity energy demand health conflict and economic growth among other outcomes by harnessing exogenous variation over time within a given spatial unit these studies help credibly identify i the breadth of channels linking weather and the economy ii heterogeneous treatment effects across different types of locations and iii nonlinear effects of weather variables this paper reviews the new literature with two purposes first we summarize recent work providing a guide to its methodologies datasets and findings second we consider applications of the new literature including insights for the damage function within models that seek to assess the potential economic effects of future climate change jel c51 d72 o13 q51 q54

warming temperatures will likely induce higher premium rates and government outlays for the u s crop insurance program likely climate change impacts include damages to agricultural production resulting from increased exposure to extreme heat considerable uncertainty remains regarding impacts on crop insurance programs we utilize a panel of u s corn yield data to predict the effect of warming temperatures on the mean and variance of yields as well as crop insurance premium rates and producer subsidies while we focus on corn we demonstrate that the subsidy impacts are likely to carry over to other major program crops we find that warming decreases mean yields and increases yield risk on average which results in higher premium rates under a 1 c warming scenario we find that premium rates at the 90 coverage level will increase by 39 on average however there is considerable statistical uncertainty around this average as the 95 confidence interval spans from 22 to 61 we also find evidence of extensive cross sectional differences as the county level rate impacts range from a 10 reduction to a 63 increase results indicate that exposure to extreme heat and changes in the coefficient of variation are large drivers of the impacts under the 1 c warming scenario we find that annual subsidy payments for the crop insurance program could increase by as much as 1 5 billion representing a 22 increase relative to current levels this estimate increases to 3 7 billion 57 under a 2 c warming scenario our results correspond to a very specific counterfactual the marginal effect of warming temperatures under current technology production and crop insurance enrollments these impacts are shown to be smaller than the forecasted impacts under a commonly used end of century general circulation model for even the most optimistic co emissions projection

empirical studies on agricultural impacts and adaptation abstract agricultural production is heavily dependent on weather outcomes and hence climate change has the potential to significantly alter the sector s productivity both reduced form studies as well as integrated assessment models have found that the agricultural sector might experience significant impacts we discuss the advantages of empirical reduced form studies and their link and potential usefulness to integrated assessment models we further discuss challenges facing empirical studies and recent research that looks at the longer term changes in climate and attempts to measure adaptation

how can african agriculture adapt to climate change a counterfactual analysis from ethiopia we analyze the impact of different adaptation strategies on crop net revenues in the nile basin of ethiopia we estimate a multinomial endogenous switching regression model of climate change adaptation and crop net revenues and implement a counterfactual analysis households data are combined with spatial climate data we find that adaptation to climate change based upon a portfolio of strategies significantly increases farm net revenues changing crop varieties has a positive and significant impact on net revenues when coupled with water conservation strategies or soil conservation strategies but not when implemented in isolation jel q54 q56

bargaining and international environmental agreements this article surveys game theoretic papers focused on the negotiation process that leads to an international environmental agreement most of the papers considered apply bargaining theory although other approaches have been considered as well among other issues the papers considered analyze the burden sharing rule that will result from a negotiation over a global public good the role of information asymmetries the impact of unilateral commitments delegation and ratification whether or not countries are going to form groups during the negotiation process and the influence of the expectation of a future bargaining process on investment decisions the basic bargaining model is optimistic as it predicts that countries will reach an efficient agreement immediately however all the developments of this model surveyed afterwards are rather pessimistic and even the basic model has perverse incentives for pre negotiation signals

optimal dynamic carbon taxes in a climate economy model with distortionary fiscal policy how should carbon be taxed as a part of fiscal policy the literature on optimal carbon pricing often abstracts from other taxes however when governments raise revenues with distortionary taxes carbon levies have fiscal impacts while they raise revenues directly they may shrink the bases of other taxes e g by decreasing employment this article theoretically characterizes and then quantifies optimal carbon taxes in a dynamic general equilibrium climate economy model with distortionary fiscal policy first this article establishes a novel theoretical relationship between the optimal taxation of carbon and of capital income this link arises because carbon emissions destroy natural capital they accumulate in the atmosphere and decrease future output consequently this article shows how the standard logic against capital income taxes extends to distortions on environmental capital investments second this article characterizes optimal climate policy in sub optimal fiscal settings where income taxes are constrained to remain at their observed levels third this article presents a detailed calibration that builds on the seminal dice approach but adds features essential for a setting with distortionary taxes such as a differentiation between climate change production impacts e g on agriculture and direct utility impacts e g on biodiversity existence value the central quantitative finding is that optimal carbon tax schedules are 8 24 lower when there are distortionary taxes compared to the setting with lump sum taxes considered in the literature

ecosystem services and agriculture cultivating agricultural ecosystems for diverse benefits crop and rangelands are over 25 of the earth s land area and they are expanding agricultural ecosystems rely on a suite of supporting ecosystem services to provide food fiber and fuel as well as a range of accompanying but non marketed ecosystem services es ecosystem services from agriculture include regulation of water and climate systems aesthetic and cultural services as well as enhanced supporting services such as soil fertility many of these es are appreciated by people but they lack markets so they lack the incentives for provision that come with prices for public policy decisions to take them into account non market valuation techniques are needed such as travel cost contingent valuation hedonic valuation and cost based or factor income approaches this article offers an overview of es from agriculture and non market valuation methods as it introduces the articles in this special section on ecosystem services and agriculture understanding how ecological functions generate es is fundamental to management but so too is understanding how humans perceive and value those services research is required both to design cost effective incentives to provide es and to measure which kinds of es could provide the greatest overall welfare benefits to society agricultural ecosystems offer newly recognized potential to deliver more diverse ecosystem services and mitigate the level of past ecosystem disservices this special section of ecological economics conveys both how these are becoming possible and the challenges to science and public policy design of turning that potential into reality

adapting natural resource enterprises under global warming in south america a mixed logit analysis this paper develops an integrated model of adapting natural resource intensive enterprises in latin america to future climate changes based on about 2 000 rural household surveys we model six specialized and diversified resource enterprises across seventeen land covers we estimate random coefficients of climatic parameters with a mixed logit model by 2020 under a hotter and drier ccc scenario crops only and cropforests enterprises are predicted to fall by 6 2 and 0 6 respectively offsetting these losses livestock only enterprise increases by 5 5 and crops livestock forests enterprise increases by 0 7 these changes magnify over time through 2060 by which time the crops livestock enterprise increases by more than 5 adaptation measures should be designed in a manner that captures the unique characteristics of latin american ecosystems

the economics of the climate i review the economic characteristics of the climate problem focusing on the choice of discount rates in the presence of a stock externality risk and uncertainty ambiguity and the role of integrated assessment models iams in analyzing policy choices i suggest that iams can play a role in providing qualitative understanding of how complex systems behave but are not accurate enough to provide quantitative insights arguments in favor of action on climate issues have to be based on aversion to risk and ambiguity and the need to avoid a small but positive risk of a disastrous outcome

are seasonal anomalies real a ninety year perspective in recent years there has been a proliferation of empirical studies documenting unexpected or anomalous regularities in security rates of return in addition to the widely studied relation between firm size and rate of return 1 these include seasonal regularities related to the time of the day harris 1986 the day of the week see ball and bowers 1986 cross 1973 french 1980 gibbons and hess 1981 jaffe and westerfield 1985 keim and stambaugh 1984 and lakonishok and levi 1982 the time of the month ariel 1987 and the turn of the year see haugen and lakonishok 1988 jones pearce and wilson 1987 lakonishok

the value of heterogeneous property rights and the costs of water volatility the system of prior appropriation in the western unites states prioritizes property rights for water based on the establishment of beneficial use creating a hierarchy where rights initiated first are more secure i estimate the demand for security in water rights through their capitalization in agricultural property markets in the yakima river basin a major watershed in washington state all water rights are satisfied in an average year so the relative value of secure property rights is a function of water supply volatility and the costs of droughts are predominantly born by those with weak rights in aggregate security in water rights does not capitalize into property values at the irrigation district level however there is heterogeneity in the premium for secure water rights the lack of a premium for district level water security is robust to a variety of econometric methods to account for correlated district unobservables and the null result produces an economically significant upper bound on the value to water security for the district the ability for farmers to adapt to water supply volatility as well as expectations about water markets and government infrastructure investment are leading explanations for the lack of an aggregate premium these explanations are supported by the pattern of heterogeneity in the water security premium

quality matters more than quantity asymmetric temperature effects on crop yield and quality grade climate change affects agriculture by altering not only output quantity but also crop quality we quantify the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture through changes in both quantity and quality where quality is measured by crop grades our model controls for methodological issues regarding sample selection aggregation phenology and nonlinearity the empirical application to japanese rice production indicates that temperature effects are asymmetric quantity is especially vulnerable to cold whereas quality is vulnerable to extremely high temperature using these results we simulate the effect of global warming and we find that warming a 3 c increase increases farm revenues by improving yield but decreases revenues as a result of deteriorating quality the net effect is negative suggesting that quality matters more than quantity the negative effect however can be mitigated by shifting cultivation periods and or regions overall our results suggest that the estimated impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies could be severely misleading unless quality is considered

an analysis of the impact of climate change on crop yields and yield variability this paper develops an econometric model of stochastic production functions to quantify the impacts of climatic variables on the mean variance and covariance of crop yields the estimates of the production function parameters and their elasticities are utilized to analyse the impacts of the projected climate change on agriculture the results show that the climate change will have modest effects on the mean crop yields but will significantly reduce the variance and covariance for most of the crops considered the results have implications for allocations of agricultural land among crops and for crop production mix

valuing the impact of large scale ecological change in a market the effect of climate change this paper establishes a methodology for valuing the impact of large scale ecological changes in a market given the large capital stocks inherent in most ecological systems the dynamic nature of most ecological change and the dynamic response of markets it is critical to build dynamic models to capture the resulting effects this paper demonstrates how to construct such a model using the impacts of climate change on u s timber markets as an example across a wide range of scenarios and models warming is predicted to expand timber supplies and thus benefit u s timber markets copyright 1998 by american economic association

resilience weather and dynamic adjustments in agroecosystems the case of wheat yield in england the paper presents an investigation of agroecosystem dynamics with an application to wheat yield data in england over the period 1885 2012 the analysis relies on a threshold quantile autoregressive model the model allows for lag effects to vary across quantiles of the distribution as well as with the values taken by the lagged variables the analysis documents the dynamics and persistence of yield adjustments to shocks the estimates indicate the presence of dynamic instability in the lower quantile of the distribution the analysis shows that after controlling for the role of technological trend wheat yield exhibits resilience to adverse weather shocks

climate change and labour allocation in rural mexico evidence from annual fluctuations in weather this paper evaluates the effects of annual fluctuations in weather on employment in rural mexico to gain insight into the potential labour market implications of climate change using a 28 year panel on individual employment we find that years with a high occurrence of heat lead to a reduction in local employment particularly for wage work and non farm labour extreme heat also increases migration domestically from rural to urban areas and internationally to the u s a medium emissions scenario implies that increases in extreme heat may decrease local employment by up to 1 4 and climate change may increase migration by 1 4 this article is protected by copyright all rights reserved

good news is not always a positive market signal investors activity around orphan drug designation abstract this article has been withdrawn at the request of the author the publisher apologizes for any inconvenience this may cause the full elsevier policy on article withdrawal can be found at https www elsevier com about our business policies article withdrawal

migration and household adaptation to climate a review of empirical research abstract this paper reviews empirical research on migration and land use impacts associated with climate change household migration arises due to changes in economic opportunities and climate amenities resulting from climate change throughout the paper efforts are made to highlight key empirical findings as well as areas in need of additional research the existing literature is discussed through the lens of reduced form and structural approaches paying particular attention to preference heterogeneity and the often complex interconnections between economic sectors in determining household migration areas in need of additional research include improving our understanding of the coupling between human and natural systems accounting for endogenous attributes and payoffs and incorporating richer characterizations of the tradeoffs driving migration across multiple economic sectors

implications of rational inattention abstract a constraint that actions can depend on observations only through a communication channel with finite shannon capacity is shown to be able to play a role very similar to that of a signal extraction problem or an adjustment cost in standard control problems the resulting theory looks enough like familiar dynamic rational expectations theories to suggest that it might be useful and practical while the implications for policy are different enough to be interesting

the impact of global warming on agriculture a ricardian analysis comment the paper assesses the ricardian analysis of the impact of global warming on agriculture and the significance of the ricardian approach to estimating adjustment costs