to float or to fix evidence on the impact of exchange rate regimes on growth we study the relationship between exchange rate regimes and economic growth for a sample of 183 countries over the post bretton woods period using a new de facto classification of regimes based on the actual behavior of the relevant macroeconomic variables in contrast with previous studies we find that for developing countries less flexible exchange rate regimes are associated with slower growth as well as with greater output volatility for industrial countries regimes do not appear to have any significant impact on growth the results are robust to endogeneity corrections and a number of alternative specifications borrowed from the growth literature

efficiency and productivity of world health systems where does your country stand this article deals with estimating efficiency of world health systems using panel data on world health organization who member countries the stochastic frontier sf approach is used for this purpose we evaluate absolute efficiency as well as rankings and their sensitivity across alternative model specifications using both output maximizing and cost minimizing frameworks we also compare productivity of health service among countries derived from the output maximizing and cost minimizing models results show that efficiency rankings of countries vary substantially depending on whether the goal of healthcare provision is output maximization or health cost minimization the same applies to different sf model specifications

monetary policy strategies for latin america the authors examine possible monetary policy strategies for latin america that may help lock in the gains the region attained in the fight against inflation in the 1990s instead of focusing the debate about the conduct of monetary policy on whether the nominal exchange rate should be fixed or flexible the focus should be on whether the monetary policy regime appropriately constrains discretion in monetary policymaking three basic frameworks deserve serious discussion as possible long run strategies for monetary policy in latin america the authors examine the advantages and disadvantages of a hard exchange rate peg monetary targeting and inflation targeting in light of monetary policy s recent track record in several latin american countries looking for clues about which of the strategies might be best suited to economies in the region the answer it depends on the country s institutional environment some countries appear not to have the institutions to constrain monetary policy if discretion is allowed in those countries there is a strong argument for hard pegs including full dollarization that allow little or no discretion to monetary authorities in countries such as chile which can constrain discretion inflation targeting is likely to produce a monetary policy that keeps inflation low yet appropriately copes with domestic and foreign shocks monetary targeting as a strategy for latin america is not viable because of the likely instability of the relationship between inflation and monetary aggregates of which there is ample international evidence no monetary strategy can solve the basic problems that have existed in latin american economies for a long time the authors welcome the recent move in latin american countries toward inflation targeting but say no policy will succeed unless government policies also create the right institutional environment

capital markets and the exchange rate with special reference to the dollarization debate in latin america the paper reviews the main challenges faced by policymakers in emerging market economies em in light of recent financial crises and taking into account salient factors like the existence of partial dollarization imperfect credibility weak financial systems and contagion the standard theory of optimal currency areas is discussed and criticized for omitting the above factors when these factors are taken into account an extreme foreign exchange regime like dollarization is shown to become much more attractive the paper discusses the pros and cons of dollarization and among other things shows that the lack of a lender of last resort is not necessarily a major drawback in em the paper also discusses inflation targeting it in a formal model it is shown that it could be subject to credibility problems similar to those found in exchange rate based stabilization programs

human resource planning in japanese multinationals a model for u s firms the efficient operation of a multinational corporation is contingent upon the availability of numerous technology capital know how and people in this paper the argument is made that human power is a key ingredient to the successful operation of a multinational without which all the other aforementioned resources could not be effectively and efficiently utilized or transferred from corporate headquarters to the various subsidiaries in the world hence there is a need for multinationals to devote more attention to human resource planning which is viewed as part of the overall planning and control process in a firm the paper compares and contrasts the human resource development programs between a sample of u s and japanese multinationals and discusses the implications for u s multinationals

the exchange rate regime and the currency composition of corporate debt the mexican experience abstract this paper analyzes the effect that the change from a fixed to a floating exchange rate regime that took place in mexico in december 1994 had on the currency composition of corporate debt in particular the paper asks whether a fixed exchange rate regime biases corporate borrowing towards foreign currency due to an implicit exchange rate guarantee given by the government therefore under a predetermined regime firms will not fully internalize their exchange rate risk and will be more likely to engage in balance sheet mismatches than under a floating regime we study the main determinants of foreign currency borrowing of those firms listed in the mexican stock exchange from 1992 to 2000 to test whether balance sheet currency mismatches fell after the adoption of the floating exchange rate regime the results found support the view that the floating exchange rate regime has been useful in reducing exchange rate exposure

estimating the efficiency of the system of healthcare financing in achieving better health this paper contributes to the effort to model and measure how the method of financing of health expenditure affects the efficiency with which better health can be achieved the focus is on the health system efficiency at the country level which provides an alternative to the work done in the who in this regard the approach uses frontier techniques as in the who studies however the paper appeals to the economic index number theory of quantity and productivity indexes which have well established axiomatic properties and provides a means for aggregating multiple health output proxies without having to attach arbitrary weights this allows the proposal of a specification that embeds health sector performance in a broader index of economic inputs and outputs and allows for comparisons across countries and time

trade liberalization and rising wage inequality in latin america reconciliation with hos theory abstract the paper puts forward the hypothesis that the transitory effects of trade liberalization on wage inequality can differ from the long run outcome in cases where the hos theory predicts a decline in wage inequality in the long run a temporary rise can nevertheless occur due to i the asymmetries in the speed of contraction in the import sector and expansion in other sectors and ii the capital skill complementarity in production the asymmetric contraction and expansion causes a transitory capital accumulation that boosts the relative and the real wage of skilled labor due to capital skill complementarity although the long run hos fundamentals are therefore dominated in the short run by the transient effects arising due to capital skill complementarity the observed rise in wage inequality is nonetheless consistent with the hos theory appropriately extended to a dynamic setting

the economic determinants of the brazilian nominal term structure of interest rates the purpose of this study is to identify the effects of monetary policy and macroeconomic shocks on the dynamics of the brazilian term structure of interest rates we estimate a near var model under the identification scheme proposed by christiano et al 1996 1999 the results resemble those of the us economy monetary policy shocks that flatten the term structure of interest rates we find that monetary policy shocks in brazil explain a significantly larger share of the dynamics of the term structure than in the usa finally we analyse the importance of standard macroeconomic variables e g gdp inflation and measure of country risk to the dynamics of the term structure in brazil

financial globalization and debt maturity in emerging economies this paper studies how financial globalization affects debt structure in emerging economies we find that by accessing international markets firms increase their long term debt and extend their debt maturity in contrast with financial liberalization long term debt decreases and the maturity structure shifts to the short term for the average firm these effects are stronger in economies with less developed domestic financial systems the evidence is consistent with financial integration having opposite effects on the firms that are able to integrate with world markets and obtain financing globally relative to the firms that rely on domestic financing only

advancing the design of a dynamic petro dollar currency basket this study offers organization of petroleum exporting countries opec member nations a crude oil pricing currency basket based on currency liquidity in contrast with prior emphasis on opec trading patterns motivating the search for an alternative us dollar pricing of crude oil is the significant and inverse relationship r 0 82 p 0 01 between the us dollar major currencies index and crude oil price over the period january 1999 march 2009 a dynamically weighted petro dollar currency basket is proposed based on the five currency claims us dollar euro british pound japanese yen and swiss franc and their varying proportions of foreign exchange reserves held by central banks the major currencies us dollar index is compared against the proposed petro dollar index to reveal an average us 8 1 billion annual gain in favor of the petro dollar currency basket offering opec members a revenue stream of diversified and highly liquid currencies to transition away from complete dependence on the us dollar crude oil pricing the proposed petro dollar crude oil pricing schema offers opec a crude oil price dynamically denominated in currencies reflecting the global use and importance of crude oil this paper concludes with implementation issues facing a move toward the dynamically weighted petro dollar crude oil pricing schema

the efficiency of the health system in south africa evidence from stochastic frontier analysis the availability of increased resources and the lack of parallel improvement in health status have renewed interest on health system performance particularly where progress towards the millennium development goals has been slow since the political transition in 1994 south africa has consistently invested over eight of its gross domestic product gdp on health but so far returns remain uneven with some localities delivering lower outcomes than others even when they have comparable input levels this study measures the performance of the country s health system following a stochastic production frontier approach results have revealed that eight of the 52 districts in the country had an efficiency score of below 60 and in four of these the score was below 50 technical inefficiency was positively and significantly associated with hiv prevalence and illiteracy rates reported for districts overall mean technical efficiency te in the country was around 80 given this further improvements in he

the transfer of japanese style management to american subsidiaries constraints and competencies this paper first reviews the theories of the transfer of japanese management practices overseas the paper then outlines a contingency theoretical model that specifies the factors which are hypothesized to impact the transfer of japanese style hrm practices to overseas subsidiaries qualitative data from a field study of ten japanese subsidiaries in the u s five in the service industry and five in manufacturing are used to illustrate the concepts presented in the theoretical discussion

partner contributions as predictors of equity share in international joint ventures the type of expertise that a company contributes to a joint venture may affect the amount of equity that it owns this research observes the ownership patterns associated with four common combinations of partner expertise in international joint ventures the results rank company assets with respect to the contributor s ability to negotiate majority ownership in the original joint venture contract and that company s tendency to buy up equity from the partner later on

the mirage of fixed exchange rates this paper discusses the profound difficulties of maintaining fixed exchange rates in a world of expanding global capital markets contrary to popular wisdom industrialized country monetary authorities easily have the resources to defend exchange parities against virtually any private speculative attack but if their commitment to use those resources lacks credibility with markets the costs to the broader economy of defending an exchange rate peg can be very high the dynamic interplay between credibility and commitment is illustrated by the 1992 swedish and british crises and the 1994 95 mexican collapse we also discuss the small number of successful fixers

corporate dollar debt and depreciations much ado about nothing abstract emerging markets firms often carry foreign currency debt on their balance sheets following a depreciation the expanding peso value of dollar liabilities could via a net worth effect offset the expansionary competitiveness effect to assess which effect dominates we use accounting data including the currency composition of liabilities for 450 nonfinancial firms in five latin american countries in the 1990s we find that firms holding more dollar debt do not invest less than their peso indebted counterparts following a depreciation we also show that these firms match the currency denomination of their liabilities with the exchange rate sensitivity of their profits

one money one market the effect of common currencies on trade currency unions their dramatic effect on international trade a gravity model is used to assess the separate effects of exchange rate volatility and currency unions on international trade the panel data bilateral observations for five years during 1970 90 covering 186 countries includes 300 observations in which both countries use the same currency i find a large positive effect of a currency union on international trade and a small negative effect of exchange rate volatility even after controlling for a host of features including the endogenous nature of the exchange rate regime these effects statistically significant imply that two countries sharing the same currency trade three times as much as they would with different currencies currency unions like the european emu may thus lead to a large increase in international trade with all that that entails andrew rose

the aggregate production function is not neoclassical standard postulates concerning the aggregate production function are about marginal productivities and the associated demands for labour and capital these demands are supposed to be negatively related to the factor prices namely the wage rate and the interest rate the theoretical cases in which these neoclassical properties fail to hold are regarded as anomalies we compute the aggregate values for production capital and labour and find that the neoclassical postulates do not hold for the detailed dataset that we consider the obvious implication of this result is that the models and analysis based on the aggregate neoclassical production functions are ill founded as they are based on something that does not exist

business groups in a market economy abstract the purpose of this paper is to examine the nature and significance of the interfirm relationship called the business group first the nature of the japanese business group is discussed it is then pointed out that the business group is not a phenomenon unique to japan and an effort is made to explain the significance of the business group in the context of a market economy using the williamsonian approach to questions of internal organization and the market finally the relationship between the input output relationship of the firms and their group affiliation is tested

the hysteresis of currency substitution currency risk vs network externalities abstract it is widely documented that currency substitution using foreign money in transactions increases in periods of high inflation but does not decline once inflation is reduced the paper uses survey data from bulgaria which experienced this phenomenon to investigate the origins of this ratchet effect we find that expected devaluation of the domestic currency while relatively high does not play a major role in sustaining the dollarization of transactions conversely preferences for the use of foreign money are strongly influenced by people s perception that foreign money is already widely used in the economy

currency crises and institutions abstract this study furthers recent literature on currency crises and institutions the main objective is to re evaluate the causes of currency crises by focusing on the role played by a broader array of institutional factors and crisis episodes than have previously been considered while at the same time controlling for economic factors our dataset consists of over 30 countries covering 13 institutional factors for the period 1984 2002 two questions are addressed they are 1 what mix of institutions may contribute to or set the stage for a currency crisis and 2 what mix of institutions may affect the depth of currency crises as measured by a decline in output our findings reveal that institutional as well as economic factors affect the probability of currency crises and that worse institutions are associated with bigger contractions in output during the crisis in general our strongest results regarding institutions show that corruption a de facto fixed exchange rate regime weak government stability and weak law and order increase the probability of a currency crisis we find mixed evidence that deposit insurance the removal of capital controls a lack of central bank independence financial liberalization and civil law increase the chance of crisis we find a similar set of factors worsens the contraction in output during a crisis except for deposit insurance which we find moderates the contraction in output

cross country comparisons of technical efficiency of health production a demonstration of pitfalls it has been proposed that cross country comparisons of the technical efficiency of health production estimated using data envelopment analysis dea have useful applications for policy makers in theory such an analysis utilizes measures of the socioeconomic determinants of health relevant to all social policy not just health policy using oecd and who data this article critically analyses a number of outstanding theoretical questions regarding the use of dea in this setting it concludes that until such questions are addressed the resultant implications for policy will be based on misleading information

foreign banks and foreign currency lending in emerging europe based on survey data from 193 banks in 20 countries we provide the first bank level analysis of the relationship between bank ownership bank funding and foreign currency fx lending across emerging europe our results contradict the widespread view that foreign banks have been driving fx lending to retail clients as a result of easier access to foreign wholesale funding our cross sectional analysis shows that foreign banks do lend more in fx to corporate clients but not to households moreover we find no evidence that wholesale funding had a strong causal effect on fx lending for either foreign or domestic banks panel estimations show that the foreign acquisition of a domestic bank does lead to faster growth in fx lending to households however this is driven by faster growth in household lending in general not by a shift towards fx lending

managing foreign subsidiaries agents of headquarters or an interdependent network in this study two different theoretical perspectives are used to develop sets of hypotheses regarding the mechanisms used to manage foreign subsidiaries of multinational corporations first agency theory serves as the basis for a model that predicts the use of monitoring mechanisms and incentive compensation then it is argued that these mechanisms are insufficient for managing subsidiaries characterized by high levels of intra firm international interdependence the management of which is critical to many of today s complex global firms a second set of hypotheses is argued linking international interdependence to several social control mechanisms primary and secondary data from u s based multinational corporations were used to test both sets of hypotheses the results indicate that agency theory although a useful foundation for studies of control within mncs is limited in its ability to explain fully the phenomenon of foreign subsidiary control however the model based on intra firm interdependence had much greater predictive ability copyright 2000 john wiley sons ltd

bank funding securitization and loan terms evidence from foreign currency lending we examine how bank funding structure and securitization activities affect the currency denomination of business loans we analyze a unique data set that includes information on the requested and granted loan currency for 99 490 loans granted to 57 464 firms by a bulgarian bank our findings document that foreign currency lending is at least partially driven by bank eagerness to match the currency structure of assets with that of liabilities our results also show that loan currency as well as loan amount and maturity are adjusted to make loans eligible for securitization

national culture and expatriate deployment we hypothesize that expatriate deployment is a control function predicted by home country culture dimensions with transaction cost and agency repercussions rather than culture in the aggregate this departure from the traditional conceptualization and measurement of cultural impact also yields a hypothesized asymmetrical effect which is tested for a multi country sample of 236 multinational subsidiaries using multiple measures of national culture hypotheses are supported with assertiveness and power distance confirmed as prime predictors of expatriate deployment

does the exchange rate regime matter for real shocks evidence from windstorms and earthquakes abstract does the choice of exchange rate regime affect an economy s adjustment to real shocks exploiting the unpredictability and economic exogeniety of windstorms hurricanes and typhoons and earthquakes this paper assesses the often contrasting answers found in the theoretical literature there is robust evidence that exchange rate flexibility helps an economy better adjust to real shocks and consistent with the channels emphasized in the classic literature on exchange rates and shocks differences in the behavior of the export sector help explain the different reactions between the two regimes

social knowledge as a control system a proposition and evidence from the japanese fdi behavior building upon the concept of clans this paper introduces the value of social knowledge as a control mechanism available for an mnc to manage its foreign subsidiaries social knowledge is defined as one s ability to understand and predict others general patterns of behavior the hypotheses are empirically tested with japanese fdi data into four host countries the united states singapore taiwan and korea the results offer broad support for the proposition that for mncs with social knowledge the need to resort to ownership for control purposes is reduced

when to dollarize implicit in the debate over dollarization are two very different views of the sequencing of policy measures one view is that dollarization to work smoothly and yield more benefits than costs must wait on the completion of complementary reforms the other view is that dollarization need not wait on these other reforms because the very act of dollarizing will produce the changes needed to smooth the operation of the new regime in this paper i consider these arguments as they apply to the cases of labor market reform fiscal reform and financial sector reform i conclude that neither theory nor evidence suggests that removing all scope for an independent monetary policy will necessarily accelerate the pace of reform

relative risk aversion and the transmission of financial crises we study how investor behavior affects the transmission of financial crises if investors exhibit decreasing relative risk aversion then negative wealth shocks increase the risk premium required to hold risky assets we integrate this into a second generation model of currency crises which allows for contagion through changes in fundamentals investor behavior can be a transmission channel of financial crises as changes in risk premia increase the coverage ratio and makes the defense of a peg less attractive for the policy maker the feedback effect of the risk premia on the probability of devaluation also makes multiple equilibria more likely the possible stabilization effects of capital controls and a tobin tax on the international transmission of financial crises are also studied

the impact of foreign liabilities on small firms firm level evidence from the korean crisis abstract using korean firm level data on publicly listed and privately held firms together with firm exit data we find strong evidence that holdings of foreign currency denominated debt negatively affected the economic performance of small firms during the 1997 98 crisis the large exchange rate depreciation that occurred during the crisis resulted in a decline in net worth for firms with foreign currency denominated debt on their balance sheets small firms with more short term foreign debt were more likely to declare bankruptcy conditional on surviving the crisis small firms that had more short term foreign debt experienced larger declines in sales the exit bankruptcy margin accounts for a large fraction of small firms adjustment during the crisis

the determinants of expatriate staffing by japanese multinationals in asia control learning and vertical business groups we empirically examine the determinants of the decision whether or not to appoint an expatriate as the managing director of overseas affiliates for a sample of 844 japanese manufacturing affiliates operating in asia in 1995 confirmation is found for hypotheses derived both from a control and coordination perspective on expatriation and from a knowledge creation and learning perspective strategic dependence of the parent on the affiliate increases the propensity to appoint expatriates whereas localisation of the affiliate reduces it organisational experience in the country both by the affiliate and by the firm increases the probability that host country nationals will be appointed inter firm relationships within vertical keiretsu groups impact on expatriation policies through inter organisational knowledge exchange in host countries and the mitigation of localisation requirements owing to intra group transactions

distinguished lecture on economics in government exchange rate regimes is the bipolar view correct the choice of appropriate exchange rate regime which for economies with access to international capital markets increasingly means a move away from the middle ground of pegged but adjustable fixed exchange rates towards the two corner regimes of either flexible exchange rates or a fixed exchange rate supported if necessary by a commitment to give up altogether an independent monetary policy lawrence h summers 2000 p 8

why are companies offshoring innovation the emerging global race for talent this paper empirically studies determinants of decision by companies to offshore innovation activities it uses survey data from the international offshoring research network project to estimate the impact of managerial intentionality past experience and environmental factors on the probability of offshoring innovation projects the results show that the emerging shortage of highly skilled science and engineering talent in the us and more generally the need to access qualified personnel are important explanatory factors for offshoring innovation decisions moreover contrary to drivers of many other functions labor arbitrage is less important than other forms of cost savings the paper concludes with a discussion of the changing dynamics underlying offshoring of innovation activities suggesting that companies are entering a global race for talent

a resource based theory of the firm knowledge versus opportunism this paper develops a resource based knowledge based theory of the firm its thesis is that the organizational mode through which individuals cooperate affects the knowledge they apply to business activity we focus on the polar cases of organization within a firm as compared to market contracting there will be a difference in the knowledge that is brought to bear and hence in joint productivity under the two options thus as compared to opportunism based transaction cost theory we advance a separate yet complementary answer to the question why do firms exist our aim is to develop an empirically relevant and complementary theory of why firms are formed a theory based on irreducible knowledge differences between individuals rather than the threat of purposeful cheating or withholding of information we assume limited cognitive abilities on the part of individuals bounded rationality and assume that opportunistic behavior will not occur the latter allows us to determine whether resource based

the design of coordination and control mechanisms for managing joint venture parent relationships joint ventures jvs defined as independent organizations formed by the pooling of resources and sharing of equity by two or more firms are being formed at an increasingly rapid pace while much empirical research has examined the conditions which favor the formation of jvs less attention has been paid to the equally important issues of control and implementation which are the focus of interest in this study we identify two factors which are expected to influence the design of control mechanisms i e 1 the strategic interdependence between the jv and each parent and 2 the environmental uncertainty faced by the jv our empirical examination confirms the importance of the degree of strategic interdependence and the moderating role of environmental uncertainty in explaining the design of control mechanisms 1998 john wiley sons ltd

the effect of financial liberalization on the capital structure and investment decisions of indonesian manufacturing establishments this article analyzes the consequences of financial liberalization using a large panel of indonesian manufacturing establishments it discusses whether financial reforms have had an impact on investment and on the allocation of credit and whether the effects differ depending on the type of firms the overall conclusion is that shifting from administrative toward market based allocation of credit has increased borrowing cost particularly for smaller firms but at the same time has benefited firms by giving them widened access to finance

inflation targeting a new framework for monetary policy he world s central bankers and their staffs meet regularly in venues from basle to washington to share ideas and discuss common problems perhaps these frequent meetings help explain why changes in the tactics and strategy of monetary policymaking such as the adoption of money growth targets in the 1970s the intensification of efforts to reduce inflation in the 1980s and the recent push for increased institutional independence for central banks tend to occur in many countries more or less simultaneously whatever their source major changes in the theory and practice of central banking are of great importance for both individual countries and the international economy in this article we discuss a new strategy for monetary policy known as inflation targeting which has sparked much interest and debate among central bankers and monetary economists in recent years this approach is characterized as the name suggests by the announcement of official target ranges for the inflation rate at one or more horizons and by explicit acknowledgment that low and stable inflation is the overriding goal of monetary policy other important features of inflation targeting include increased communication with the public about the plans and objectives of the monetary policymakers and in many cases increased accountability of the central bank

inflation targeting in emerging economies panel evidence abstract this paper shows there is no evidence that the inflation targeting regime it improves economic performance as measured by the behavior of inflation and output growth in developing countries the control of common time effects results in less negative and less significant it impacts on inflation inflation volatility and output growth volatility than previously found in the literature additionally our analysis shows robust evidence of lower output growth during it adoption on balance although lower long run mean inflation signals that the central banks of emerging economies with inflation targeting are more inflation averse the costs of disinflation have not been lower than under other monetary regimes

institutional causes macroeconomic symptoms volatility crises and growth countries that have pursued distortionary macroeconomic policies including high inflation large budget deficits and misaligned exchange rates appear to have suffered more macroeconomic volatility and also grown more slowly during the postwar period does this reflect the causal effect of these macroeconomic policies on economic outcomes one reason to suspect that the answer may be no is that countries pursuing poor macroeconomic policies also have weak institutions including political institutions that do not constrain politicians and political elites ineffective enforcement of property rights for investors widespread corruption and a high degree of political instability this paper documents that countries that inherited more extractive institutions from their colonial past were more likely to experience high volatility and economic crises during the postwar period more specifically societies where european colonists faced high mortality rates more than 100 years ago are much more volatile and prone to crises based on our previous work we interpret this relationship as due to the causal effect of institutions on economic outcomes europeans did not settle and were more likely to set up extractive institutions in areas where they faced high mortality once we control for the effect of institutions macroeconomic policies appear to have only a minor impact on volatility and crises this suggests that distortionary macroeconomic policies are more likely to be symptoms of underlying institutional problems rather than the main causes of economic

japanese firms and the decision to invest abroad business groups and regional core networks the determinants of the decision by japanese firms to set up manufacturing plants in southeast asia europe and north america are analyzed using micro data on the behavior of firms in the electronics industry while firm specific intangible assets based on r d and marketing efforts are positively related to the decision to invest in europe and north america investment in southeast asia is mainly related to human resources and driven by interfirm ties within horizontal and vertical business groups the empirical results suggest that membership of horizontal keiretsu relaxes liquidity constraints while the manufacturing networks of horizontal and vertical keiretsu in southeast asia facilitate the establishment of manufacturing plants by member firms copyright 1996 by mit press

international experiences with different monetary policy regimes any views expressed in this paper are those of the author only and not those of columbia university or the national bureau of economic research abstract this paper examines the international experiences with four basic types of monetary policy regimes 1 exchange rate targeting 2 monetary targeting 3 inflation targeting and 4 monetary policy with an implicit but not an explicit nominal anchor the basic theme that emerges from this analysis is that transparency and accountability are crucial to constraining discretionary monetary policy so that it produces desirable long run outcomes because the devil is in the details in achieving transparency and accountability what strategy will work best in a country depends on its political cultural and economic institutions as well as on its past history

integration oriented strategies host market corruption and the likelihood of foreign subsidiary exit from emerging markets extant research has found that more pronounced levels of corruption in foreign host emerging markets increase the likelihood that subsidiaries established by multinational enterprises mnes from developed countries will exit we synthesize insights from the organizational perspective of corruption and the integration responsiveness paradigm to propose that integration oriented strategies will weaken the positive relationship between corruption and the likelihood of exit at high levels of host market corruption we develop and test hypotheses pertaining to the main effect of corruption on the likelihood of subsidiary exit as well as the moderating impacts of a firm s equity ownership strategy and its expatriate staffing strategy upon this relationship we theorize that uncertainty operates as the mechanism that underpins the corruption market exit relationship and that an mne s strategic choices with respect to its subsidiary investments contribute to reducing this uncertainty we find that an increase in the foreign investing mne s equity ownership share negatively moderates the positive relationship between corruption and the likelihood that foreign subsidiaries established by developed market mnes will exit host emerging markets when corruption is high however the marginal effects results do not support the expatriate staffing strategy hypothesis our work provides guidance to developed country mnes that seek insights with respect to the utility of strategies that might be implemented in host emerging markets characterized by more pronounced levels of corruption

foreign currency borrowing by small firms in emerging markets when domestic banks intermediate dollars this paper investigates what induces small firms in an emerging market economy to borrow dollar credit from domestic banks our data are from a unique survey of firms in lebanon the findings complement studies of large firms with foreign currency loans from foreign lenders exporters naturally hedged against currency risk are more likely to incur dollar debt firms also partly hedge themselves by passing currency risk to customers and suppliers less opaque firms with easily verifiable collateral and higher net worth are more likely to access dollar credit firms reliant on formal financing banks and supplier credit are more likely to contract dollar debt than firms reliant on informal financing family friends and moneylenders bank relationships however do not increase the dollar debt likelihood and finally profitable firms are less likely to have dollar debt information frictions and limited collateral therefore constrain dollar credit even when it is intermediated domestically

the role of expatriates in the management of interdependence complexity and risk in multinational corporations a multilevel analysis of environmental country and organizational affiliate factors is used to explain the differential utilization rates of u s nationals in overseas professional positions of a major u s bank with 84 branches in 43 countries the research suggests that to the extent that the affiliates of a multinational corporation operate in environments with differing levels of political risk cultural distance and competition and have operations with different levels of complexity and interdependence a single staffing policy may be inappropriate

the mirage of exchange rate regimes for emerging market countries this paper argues that much of the debate on choosing an exchange rate regime misses the boat it begins by discussing the standard theory of choice between exchange rate regimes and then explores the weaknesses in this theory especially when it is applied to emerging market economies it then discusses a range of institutional traits that might predispose a country to favor either fixed or floating rates and then turns to the converse question of whether the choice of exchange rate regime may favor the development of certain desirable institutional traits the conclusion from the analysis is that the choice of exchange rate regime is likely to be of second order importance to the development of good fiscal financial and monetary institutions in producing macroeconomic success in emerging market countries this suggests that less attention should be focused on the general question whether a floating or a fixed exchange rate is preferable and more on these deeper institutional arrangements a focus on institutional reforms rather than on the exchange rate regime may encourage emerging market countries to be healthier and less prone to the crises that we have seen in recent years

do government guarantees really matter in fixed exchange rate regimes abstract since the mid 1990s theories of speculative attacks have argued that fixed exchange rate regimes induce excessive borrowing in foreign currency as an optimal response to implicit guarantees that the government will not devalue the domestic currency using data on brazilian firms before and after the end of the fixed exchange rate regime in 1999 we estimate the relevance of the government guarantees by comparing the changes in foreign debt of two groups of firms those that hedged their foreign currency debt prior to the exchange rate float and those that did not using the difference in differences approach in which firm specific characteristics are introduced as control variables we exclude the macroeconomic effects of the change in the exchange rate regime and the possible differences in foreign debt trends of the two groups of firms thus obtaining an estimate of the impact of the government guarantees on borrowing in foreign currency the results suggest that the guarantees do not induce excessive borrowing in foreign currency

offshoring innovation to emerging markets organizational control and informal institutional distance the literature on innovation offshoring has focused on the dichotomous choice between two distinct investment strategies captive offshoring and outsourced offshoring we use the concept of organizational control to investigate how differences in the informal institutions that prevail in the home and host countries influence multinational enterprise mne strategy or the organizational control decision with respect to subsidiaries established to offshore innovation while the relationship between formal institutions and mne strategy has been the subject of considerable academic scrutiny less is known about the role of informal institutions we propose that the type of uncertainty precipitated by informal institutions is critical to understanding the strategic behavior of foreign investing mnes we hypothesize that an mne s organizational control over a subsidiary will be contingent upon the type of informal institutional uncertainty encountered by the subsidiary more specifically we disaggregate the informal institutions construct and develop three new more explicit latent constructs behaviorally oriented informal institutions boii technology oriented informal institutions toii and demand oriented informal institutions doii our theory posits that while an increase in boii distance will precipitate a preference for greater organizational control heightened toii and doii distances will induce the opposite outcome a preference for lower levels of organizational control

exchange rate regimes for emerging markets moral hazard and international overborrowing this paper investigates the role of the exchange rate regime in a simple fisherian model of the overborrowing syndrome where domestic banks are subject to moral hazard the choice of exchange rate regime may have important implications for the macroeconomic stability of the economy banks that enjoy government guarantees have an incentive to increase foreign borrowing and incur foreign exchange risks that are underwritten by the deposit insurance system in the absence of capital controls this increases the magnitude of overborrowing and leaves the economy both more vulnerable to speculative attack and more exposed to the real economic consequences of such an attack while bad exchange rate pegs will tend to exacerbate the problem of overborrowing in emerging markets it is unclear that flexible exchange rate always dominate fixed exchange rates a good fix one that is credible and close to purchasing power parity may reduce the super risk premium in domestic interest rates and thereby narrow the margin of temptation for banks to overborrow internationally contrary to the current consensus regarding the lessons that should be drawn from the asian crisis a good fix may better stabilise the domestic economy while limiting moral hazard in the banking system

influences on human resource management practices in multinational corporations a study of human resource management practices in 249 u s affiliates of foreign based multinational corporations mncs shows that in general affiliate hrm practices closely follow local practices with differences among specific practices the degree of similarity of local practices is significantly influenced by the method of founding dependence on local inputs the presence of expatriates and the extent of communication with the parent in addition sharp differences are revealed among affiliates of canadian japanese and european mncs suggesting strong country effects together these findings support the view of mncs as composed of differentiated practices which in turn are shaped by forces for local isomorphism and for internal consistency

how are exchange rates managed evidence of an anchor based heuristic central banks often intervene in the foreign exchange market to obtain desirable exchange rates how this is done has remained totally opaque although central banks are likely to adopt a satisficing rather than optimizing strategy as they need to intervene frequently in a timely manner under incomplete information in this paper we propose a simple exchange rate management rule that spreads the volatilities originated from the anchor currencies among the exchange rates with the domestic currency we test out this rule on 10 currencies and find the empirical evidence consistent with the proposed anchor based heuristic

does the currency regime shape unhedged currency exposure abstract this paper examines how unhedged currency exposure of firms varies with changes in currency flexibility a sequence of four time periods with alternating high and low currency volatility in india provides a natural experiment in which changes in currency exposure of a panel of firms is measured and the moral hazard versus incomplete markets hypotheses tested we find that firms carried higher currency exposure in periods when the currency was less flexible our results support the moral hazard hypothesis that low currency flexibility encourages firms to hold unhedged exposure in response to implicit government guarantees

financial liberalization credit constraints and collateral investment in the mexican manufacturing sector abstract we examine the impact of financial liberalization on fixed investment in mexico using establishment level data from the manufacturing sector in addition to analyzing changes in cash flow sensitivities an innovative approach explores the role of real estate as collateral and addresses a potential censoring problem the results suggest that financial constraints were eased for the smallest firms but not for larger ones however the importance of possessing real estate increased given banks reliance on collateral in their lending the results also provide microeconomic evidence consistent with the role attributed to financial accelerator mechanisms during lending booms and during post crisis recessions

global cities and multinational enterprise location strategy we combine the concept of location derived by economic geographers with theories of the multinational enterprise mne and the liability of foreignness developed by international business scholars to examine the factors that propel mnes toward or away from global cities we argue that three distinctive characteristics of global cities global interconnectedness cosmopolitanism and abundance of advanced producer services help mnes overcome the costs of doing business abroad and we identify the contingencies under which these characteristics combine with firm attributes to exert their strongest influence consistent with these arguments our analysis of a large sample of mne location decisions using a multilevel multinomial model suggests not only that mnes have a strong propensity to locate within global cities but also that these choices are associated with a nuanced interplay of firm and subsidiary level factors including investment motives proprietary capabilities and business strategy our study provides important insights for international business scholars by shedding new light on mne location choices and also contributes to our understanding of economic geography by examining the heterogeneous strategies and capabilities of mnes the primary agents of economic globalization that shape the nature of global cities

what drives credit dollarization in transition economies abstract this paper provides an in depth analysis of the use of foreign currencies in the lending activities of banks in transition economies the impact of bank and firm variables on credit dollarization is studied in an optimal portfolio allocation model and estimated using new aggregate data for 21 transition economies for the period 1990 2003 empirical results provide evidence that credit dollarization is the combined outcome of domestic deposit dollarization and banks desire for currency matched portfolios beyond regulatory requirements the effects of international financial factors and natural hedges are less robust across alternative specifications the paper further discusses the role of regulations in affecting the impact of these factors on credit dollarization and calls for more developed domestic forward foreign exchange markets

human capital in multinational enterprises does strategic alignment matter this research proposes a strategic human capital alignment framework to examine whether the alignment between subsidiary strategy i e export oriented vs local market oriented strategy and human capital i e parent firm vs local specific human capital is positively related to subsidiary performance in multinational enterprises mnes we further explore two important exogenous i e foreign exchange rate change and endogenous i e mne international experience boundary conditions since they may adjust the positive effect of strategic human capital alignment on performance the analysis based on 5604 subsidiary observations of 423 mnes from 1990 to 2012 confirms the positive synergic effect of aligning subsidiary strategy and human capital and shows the moderating effects of foreign exchange rate change and mne international experience by presenting the importance of subsidiary strategy global staffing alignment and the roles of external economic environments and internal organizational capabilities as boundary conditions the strategic human capital alignment framework suggests that what makes human capital valuable for the firm is its alignment with strategic orientation thus managers should carefully deploy the appropriate type of human capital to fulfill the requisite organizational strategy and take into account changing external and internal contextual conditions in applying the framework

fixed versus flexible exchange rates which provides more fiscal discipline abstract conventional wisdom holds that fixed rates provide more fiscal discipline than do flexible rates in this paper we show that this wisdom need not hold in a standard model in which fiscal policy is endogenously determined by a maximizing fiscal authority the claim that fixed rates induce more discipline stresses that sustained adoption of lax fiscal policies must eventually lead to an exhaustion of reserves and thus to a politically costly collapse of the peg hence under fixed rates bad behavior today leads to punishment tomorrow under flexible rates bad behavior has costs as well the difference is in the intertemporal distribution of these costs flexible rates allow the effects of unsound fiscal policies to manifest themselves immediately through movements in the exchange rate hence bad behavior today leads to punishment today if fiscal authorities are impatient flexible rates by forcing the costs to be paid up front provide more fiscal discipline and higher welfare for the representative private agent the recent experience of sub saharan countries supplies evidence that matches the predictions of the model

managing valuable knowledge in weak ip protection countries although knowledge assets provide multinational corporations mncs with competitive advantages in foreign markets it can be difficult for firms to protect their knowledge in foreign countries especially countries with weak intellectual property ip protection building on and extending the knowledge management institutional theory and expatriate literatures this article explores whether home country expatriates can substitute for weak ip protection and drive an increase in more and more valuable knowledge transfers to foreign operations located in weak ip protection countries because of their ties to headquarters knowledge of parent firm assets priorities and routines and activities in local operations i argue that home country expatriates can transform the local operation to offer higher protection for parent firm knowledge in weak ip countries in ways that local managers cannot the results from a comprehensive panel of us multinationals suggest that home country expatriates can substitute for weak ip protection but that this effect is contingent on the manufacturing and knowledge capabilities of foreign operations for higher value parent firm knowledge transfers overall this article extends our understanding of the global management and protection of knowledge by mncs by exploring how organizational practices can buffer country level institutional deficiencies for firm knowledge

from individual skills to organizational capability in japan two contrasting conceptualizations of skills lead one to attribute different roles to inter firm networks if skills are regarded as a public good then inter firm networks are like clubs that police the scope for firms to benefit from skills without paying for their acquisition by contrast if skills are regarded as a distinct and hard to imitate asset then inter firm networks provide an essential non market mechanism for spreading it the problem in the former conceptualization is market failure due to the ease of spill over of knowledge while the counterpart problem in the latter conceptualization is the difficulty of diffusing tacit knowledge by market mechanisms this paper describes toyota motor corporation s supplier development programmes in the wider industrial context of japan it concludes that of the two perspectives the knowledge as a distinctive asset perspective is more appropriate in understanding the rationale behind the elaborate mechanisms for developing suppliers in the long term

excessive dollar debt financial development and underinsurance we propose that the limited financial development of emerging markets is a significant factor behind the large share of dollar denominated external debt present in these markets we show that when financial constraints affect borrowing and lending between domestic agents agents undervalue insuring against an exchange rate depreciation since more of this insurance is present when external debt is denominated in domestic currency rather than in dollars this result implies that domestic agents choose excessive dollar debt we also show that limited financial development reduces the incentives for foreign lenders to enter emerging markets the retarded entry reinforces the underinsurance problem

coping with terms of trade shocks pegs versus floats the choice of the exchange rate regime has always been an area of great controversy and debate the discussion has once again taken center stage in the developing world the sequence of currency crises in the 1990 s the success of cultency board arrangements the dollarization plan of ecuador and the apparent swing toward flexible regimes of many emerging economies has revived interest in this debate milton friedman 1953 argued that one of the most important advantages of flexible regimes over fixed regimes is that they can smooth adjustment to real shocks even in the presence of nominal rigidities ever since this has been one of the least disputed benefits attributed to fully flexible exchange rate regimes subsequent to friedman many theories of the international transmission of real shocks have confirmed the original intuition that the shortrun responses to terms of trade shocks should be different across exchange rate regimes here i look at a post bretton woods sample of 74 developing countries to test whether flexible regimes can buffer terms of trade shocks better than fixed regimes

the role of inflation targeting in international debt denomination in developing countries abstract this paper analyzes the inflation targeting experience of developing countries as an effective monetary policy framework to promote changes in the currency composition of their international debt using matching with difference in differences to address the self selection bias we find that inflation targeting has led to a 3 6 percentage point reduction in the foreign currency share of international debt in targeting countries when compared to non targeting countries with the effect especially pronounced for sovereign international debt differentiating by type of owner we find a reduction of the foreign currency share in foreign held total sovereign debt but no effect on domestic held debt furthermore from the analysis of the us dollar and euro shares we find that inflation targeting has contributed to a 9 percentage points lower dollar share in international debt in targeting countries compared to non targeting countries while the effect on the euro share is negligible this not only provides evidence that the structural features of international financial markets matter but also that monetary policy can help developing countries reduce their reliance on foreign currency debt especially if it is held by foreign investors

perceived senior leadership opportunities in mncs the effect of social hierarchy and capital drawing on the structural perspective in organizational theory this study develops a conceptual framework of the social hierarchy within the multinational corporation mnc we suggest that parent country nationals pcns host country nationals hcns and third country nationals tcns occupy distinctively different positions in the social hierarchy which are anchored in their differential control or access to various forms of capital or strategically valuable organizational resources we further suggest that these positions affect employees perceptions of senior leadership opportunities defined as the assessment of the extent to which nationality and location influence access to senior leadership opportunities using multilevel analysis of survey data from 2039 employees in seven mncs the study reveals two significant findings first hcns and tcns perceive that nationality and location influence access to senior leadership opportunities more than pcns second three moderating factors gender tenure and education increase the perception gaps between pcns on the one hand and hcns and tcns on the other although these results are inconsistent these findings indicate that the structural position of pcns hcns and tcns in the social hierarchy affect sense making and perceptions of access to senior leadership opportunities

prospective deficits and the asian currency crisis this paper argues that a principal cause of the 1997 asian currency crisis was large prospective deficits associated with implicit bailout guarantees to failing banking systems the expectation that these future deficits would be at least partially financed by seigniorage revenues or an inflation tax on outstanding nominal debt led to a collapse of the fixed exchange rate regimes in asia we articulate this view using a simple model whose key feature is that a speculative attack is inevitable once the present value of future government deficits rises we present empirical evidence in support of the key assumptions underlying our interpretation of the crisis

oil dependency and exchange rate regimes in arab oil economies time to rethink the paradigm this study examines implications of the current exchange rate regimes on the macroeconomic and growth performance of five arab oil producing countries saudi arabia the uae sudan algeria and yemen the study evaluates alternative exchange rate regime policy options towards exploring an optimal exit strategy to ensure successful transition to more sustainable exchange rate regime especially in the fixed regime economies of saudi arabia and the uae this study proposes the adoption of a transparent broad basket band and crawl bbc regime by the arab oil economies in order to provide a better alternative to the existing fixed pegs or dirty floats however it is imperative to note that the timing of the exit from the current regime and the extent of institutional development and market sophistications are very critical to successful transition to more sustainable regime that would provide a larger scope for counter cyclical policies and diversification in these economies