on the option to invest in pollution control under a regime of tradable emissions allowances optimal decisions of a firm facing the option of retrofitting its plant to reduce pollution and thereby eliminate the need to purchase emissions allowances are analysed the decision is treated as a real option with the price of pollution permits following a known stochastic process the model is formulated as a set of one dimensional partial differential equations at discrete points in time the firm owner makes optimal decisions about the retrofit including whether to mothball temporarily the model is used to analyse a firm s decision to instal a scrubber as a result of the 1990 u s clean air act jel classification q25 d81 g31 sur la possibilite d investir dans le controle de la pollution dans un regime de permis d emission de pollution echangeables commercialement ce memoire examine les decisions optimales d une entreprise face a la possibilite d adapter ses installations pour reduire la pollution et ce faisant d eliminer le besoin de se procurer des permis d emission de pollution sur le marche le decision est traitee comme une option reelle ou le prix des permis resulte d un processus stochastique connu le modele est formule sous forme d un ensemble d equations differentielles partielles a une dimension a des points discontinus dans le temps le proprietaire de l entreprise prend des decisions optimales de mise a niveau des installations y compris la possibilite de les fermer temporairement le modele est utilise pour analyser une decision d installer un epurateur suite a la mise en place de la loi americaine de 1990 clean air act

firm incentives to promote technological change in pollution control reply abstract the process of technological change in pollution control is broken into three basic steps innovation diffusion and optimal agency response firm incentives to promote these steps are then examined under five regulatory regimes direct controls emission subsidies emission taxes free marketable permits and auctioned marketable permits on a relative basis emission taxes and auctioned permits provide the highest firm incentives to promote technological change at times free permits generate lower incentives direct controls which are common regulatory tools usually provide the lowest relative firm incentives to promote technological change

on the informational superiority of quantities over prices in the presence of an externality in this study we investigate the convexity of the profit function of a regulated firm with respect to the random shocks in the marginal costs and the demand intercept and its implications regarding information disclosure when these shocks are revealed to the firm at a future stage we illustrate that information disclosure is attained when the firm is regulated through the use of a quantity rather than a price instrument to do so we argue that increased convexity obtained under complete information is a sufficient condition as a policy implication we suggest a new argument which favors the use of quantities over prices these implications are more pronounced once we allow for multiple firms

is the united states really underinvesting in agricultural research that the level of public investment in u s agricultural research is too low is widely accepted this paper argues that there are two important limitations to the evidence assembled in support of the underinvestment hypothesis a many authors have compared the social rate of return to public investments with the private rate of return to private investments b costs of public expenditures on agricultural research have been underestimated by a failure to account for the marginal excess burden of the tax collection system taking these two factors into account evidence in support of the underinvestment hypothesis is weakened considerably

dynamic environmental policy with strategic firms prices versus quantities abstract environmental regulators often have imperfect information about regulated firms abatement costs in this paper we compare taxes and emissions permits in a dynamic setting in which firms behave strategically the regulator updates policy over time based upon previous aggregate industry performance assuming that firms are not strategic we find that strategic firms facing an emissions tax have an incentive to overabate in order to obtain a lower tax in the future firms that trade emissions permits have a strategic incentive to reveal an artificially high permit price to obtain more permits in the future whether permits or taxes are preferred from a welfare standpoint depends upon how permit prices are determined taxes generate higher welfare when the low cost firm sets the permit price but permits generate higher welfare when the high cost firm sets the permit price

environmental policy incentives to adopt advanced abatement technology abstract we investigate incentives through environmental policy instruments to adopt advanced abatement technology first we study the case where the regulator makes long term commitments to policy levels and does not anticipate arrival of new technology we show that taxes provide stronger incentives than permits auctioned and free permits offer identical incentives and standards may give stronger incentives than permits second we investigate scenarios where the regulator anticipates new technologies we show that with taxes and permits the regulator can induce first best outcomes if he moves after firms have invested whereas this does not always hold if he moves first

instrument choice for environmental protection when technological innovation is endogenous this paper compares qualitatively and quantitatively the welfare effects of emissions taxes auctioned emissions permits and free grandfathered permits when technological innovation is endogenous we find that there is no unambiguous case for preferring any of these policy instruments the relative welfare ranking of instruments depends on the costs of innovation the extent to which innovations can be imitated the slope and level of the marginal environmental benefit function and the number of polluting firms we illustrate the types of situations when there can be significant welfare discrepancies between the policies and when there are not

a parametric estimation of total factor productivity and its components in u s agriculture the present study aims at improving our understanding of the individual contribution of the components of total factor productivity tfp change to u s agricultural productivity a novel sequential primal dual estimation routine to calculate tfp change is proposed using a multi output input distance function in the first stage followed by a cost minimization routine in the second stage tfp change is estimated as the direct sum of the estimates of technical change technical efficiency change allocative efficiency change input price effects changes in output markup and changes in returns to scale in each state the validity of the proposed methodology is supported by the remarkable overlap and high correlation of our annual estimates of tfp change with the usda s measures of change in tfp by state although technical change tends to be the largest contributor to productivity change it bears a low and statistically insignificant correlation with tfp change on an annual basis whereas annual changes in the markup effect and returns to scale are highly and significantly correlated with tfp changes this is the first study to find a slowdown of technical progress in the u s farm sector in the 1990s and 2000s and technical regress during the farm crisis of the 1980s while technical efficiency shows a positive overall trend allocative efficiency shows a negative overall trend and their combined effect i e the overall cost efficiency slows down tfp growth the policy recommendations from previous studies on the drivers of tfp should be revised in light of these findings

learning about environmental damage implications for emissions trading in this paper the impact of adjusting the supply of tradeable emission permits on incentives for cleaner technology adoption is examined two policy rules for adjusting the supply of permits are considered open market operations and a proportional adjustment rule under which the regulator expropriates permits from individual firms in proportion to their existing permit holdings adjustment via open market operations is neutral with respect to cleaner technology investment decisions but may be politically difficult to implement the proportional adjustment rule is also neutral with respect to investment decisions and at the same time allows more flexibility from a political perspective

irreversible abatement investment under cost uncertainties tradable emission permits and emissions charges abstract a major concern with tradable emission permits is that stochastic permit prices may reduce a firm s incentive to invest in abatement capital or technologies relative to other policies such as a fixed emissions charge however under efficient permit trading the permit price uncertainty is caused by abatement cost uncertainties which affect investment under both permit and charge policies we develop a rational expectations general equilibrium model of permit trading and irreversible abatement investment to show how cost uncertainties affect investment under permits we compare the resulting investment incentive with that under charges after controlling for the assumption that random shocks affect the abatement cost linearly we find that firms investment incentive decreases in cost uncertainties but more so under emissions charges than under permits therefore tradable permits in fact may help maintain firms investment incentive under uncertainty

knowledge measurement and productivity in a research program we introduce a metric based on bayesian probability theory to evaluate the determinants of scientific discovery and use it to assess an international aquacultural research program consisting of a large number of highly varied projects the metric accommodates not only project variety but a detailed breakdown of the sources of research productivity accounting for example for the contributions of failed as well as successful investigations a mean absolute deviation loss functional form permits decomposition of knowledge gain into an outcome probability shift mean surprise and outcome variance reduction statistical precision allowing productivity to be estimated for each of them separately then combined into a single knowledge production relationship laboratory size is found to moderately boost mean surprise but has no effect on statistical precision while investigator education greatly improves precision but has no effect on mean surprise returns to research scale are decreasing in the size dimension alone but increasing when size and education are taken together suggesting the importance of measuring human capital at both the quantitative and qualitative margins

are agricultural r d returns declining and development dependent abstract there is widespread professional consensus that agricultural research and development r d realizes high economic returns though there are concerns as to whether the returns have been declining over the past few decades and are unevenly distributed among different regions in the world this study examines both the time trend i e increasing or decreasing and regional developmental differences in the reported returns to agricultural r d using a newly updated and expanded global database of estimated returns to agricultural r d and a robust statistical methodology we find that after accounting for methodological changes and other study attributes that have varied over time the contemporary returns to agricultural r d investments are as high as ever we also conduct a oaxaca decomposition to assess the relative importance of differences among countries in study attributes e g what research was evaluated by whom and how versus differences in how these attributes relate to the irr e g model parameter estimates we find that the regional differences in study attributes tend to result in higher irr estimates in developed countries whereas developing versus developed country differences in the marginal effects of the attributes on the estimated irrs tend to result in higher estimates in developing countries

pollution control by options trading abstract for pollution control with imperfect information about aggregate abatement costs we propose a combination consisting of free permits and a menu of call options for additional permits with different striking prices by appropriately choosing permits and corresponding striking prices the regulator can approximate the marginal damage function arbitrarily well

the research cost of adapting agriculture to climate change a global analysis to 2050 investments in agricultural research and development r d made over the next few decades will likely prove critical in offsetting adverse climate change impacts on the global food system in this study we offer cost estimates of public r d led adaptation to climate change grounded in an explicit framework relating the flow of annual r d expenditures to building knowledge capital and thereby raising productivity in agriculture our research uses a comprehensive collection of historical public agricultural r d expenditure and a literature review of elasticity estimates linking knowledge stocks to agricultural productivity growth for key world regions given climate driven crop yield projections generated from extreme combinations of crop and global circulation models we find that offsetting crop yield losses projected by climate and crop models over 2006 2050 would require increased r d adaptation investments of between 187 billion and 1 384 billion in 2005 ppp if we invest between 2020 and 2040 this is 16 118 higher than global r d investment if present spending trends continue although these costs are significant worldwide r d led climate adaptation could offer favorable economic returns moreover r d led adaptation could deliver gains in food security and environmental sustainability by mitigating food price increases and slowing cropland expansion

combining price and quantity controls under partitioned environmental regulation abstract this paper analyzes hybrid emissions trading systems etss under partitioned environmental regulation when firms abatement costs and future emissions are uncertain we show that hybrid policies that introduce bounds on the price or the quantity of abatement provide a way to hedge against differences in marginal abatement costs across partitions price bounds are more efficient than abatement bounds as they also use information on firms abatement technologies while abatement bounds can only address emission uncertainty using a numerical stochastic optimization model with equilibrium constraints for the european carbon market we find that introducing hybrid policies in eu ets reduces expected excess abatement costs of achieving targeted emission reductions under eu climate policy by up to 89 we also find that under partitioned regulation there is a high likelihood for hybrid policies to yield sizeable ex post cost reductions

long run and global r d funding trajectories the u s farm bill in a changing context domestically funded and performed research and development r d has historically been a major source of productivity gains in u s agriculture and a principal source of r d spillovers to the rest of the world in the waning decades of the 20th century u s policymakers opted to ratchet down the rate of growth in public support for food and agricultural r d as the 21st century unfolds slowing growth has given way to real cutbacks reversing the accumulation of u s sourced public r d capital over most of the previous century and more the 2014 farm bill did little to reverse these long run research funding trajectories politicians failed to heed the economic evidence about the still substantial social payoffs of that research and the consequent slowdown in u s agricultural productivity growth associated with the spending slowdown meanwhile r d spending by other countries has been moving in different directions we present new evidence that today s middle income countries notably china brazil and india are not only growing in relative importance as producers of agricultural innovations through investments in public r d they are also gaining considerable ground in terms of their share of privately performed research of relevance for agriculture the already substantive changes in global public and private r d investment trajectories are accelerating if history is any guide to the future these changing r d trajectories could have profound consequences for the competitiveness of u s agriculture in the decades ahead

combining price and quantity controls to mitigate global climate change abstract uncertainty about compliance costs causes otherwise equivalent price and quantity controls to behave differently and leads to divergent welfare consequences although most of the debate on global climate change policy has focused on quantity controls due to their political appeal this paper argues that price controls are more efficient simulations based on a stochastic computable general equilibrium model indicate that the expected welfare gain from the optimal price policy is five times higher than the expected gain from the optimal quantity policy an alternative hybrid policy combines both the political appeal of quantity controls with the efficiency of prices using an initial distribution of tradeable permits to set a quantitative target but allowing additional permits to be purchased at a fixed trigger price even sub optimal hybrid policies offer dramatic efficiency improvements over otherwise standard quantity controls for example a 50 trigger price per ton of carbon converts the 3 trillion expected loss associated with a simple 1990 emission target to a 150 billion gain these results suggest that a hybrid policy is an attractive alternative to either a pure price or quantity system

de facto financial openness and capital mobility abstract this paper shows that de facto financial openness does does not increase capital mobility in developing developed countries and that capital is is not freely mobile in the most financially open developing developed countries

returns to food and agricultural r d investments in sub saharan africa 1975 2014 research enabled growth in agricultural productivity is pivotal to sub saharan africa s overall economic growth prospects yet investments in research and development rd median 38 0 py around 78 5 of the evaluations relate to the commodity specific consequences of agricultural research while 5 5 report on the returns to an all agriculture aggregate the weight of commodity specific evaluation evidence is not especially congruent with the composition of agricultural production throughout africa nor to the best that can be determined the commodity orientation of public african agricultural r d

adam smith s answer to the feldstein horioka paradox the invisible hand revisited abstract adam smith explained the feldstein horioka paradox arguing that it is the pursuit of security that leads owners of capital to invest at home and that it is the pursuit of security not profit that leads them to promote the good of society

re examining the reported rates of return to food and agricultural research and development reply hurley rao and pardey 2014 analytically and empirically evaluate the internal rate of return irr vis a vis the modified internal rate of return mirr for investments in agricultural research and development r d they find that estimates of the irr are 2 5 to 5 times larger than the mirr for a wide range of assumptions leading them to question the value of the irr as a metric to represent the rate of return to agricultural r d oehmke 2016 defends the irr by arguing that it has important properties that the mirr does not possess in this article we critically examine these properties demonstrating that some are not inherent to the mirr for other properties we simply disagree with oehmke s assessment of their desirability therefore we are not compelled to change our original recommendation

public agricultural r d over the past half century an emerging new world order recent trends in farm productivity and food prices raise concerns about whether the era of global agricultural abundance is over agricultural r d is a crucial determinant of agricultural productivity and production and therefore food prices and poverty in this article we present entirely new evidence on investments in public agricultural r d worldwide as an indicator of the prospects for agricultural productivity growth over the coming decades the agricultural r d world is changing and in ways that will definitely affect future global patterns of poverty hunger and other outcomes the overall picture is one in which the middle income countries are growing in relative importance as producers of agricultural innovations through investments in r d and have consequently better prospects as producers of agricultural products

re examining the reported rates of return to food and agricultural research and development comment hurley rao and pardey 2014 argue to replace the internal rate of return with the modified internal rate of return for the evaluation of public research investment the crux of their argument is that the internal rate of return assumes intermediate cash flows can be reinvested or borrowed at same return as the initial investment which is generally not correct or reasonable page 1492 this article first demonstrates that reinvestment decisions are embodied in the project specification and that the internal rate of return makes no inherent reinvestment assumption the article then clarifies the algebraic properties of the marginal internal rate of return and the reinvestment implications of the internal rate of return and modified internal rate of return within the context of public agricultural research evaluation

environmental policy a la carte letting firms choose their regulation under uncertainty the optimal choice between price and quantity instruments depends on the technology of the regulated firms which is often private information we consider an environmental policy that delegates the prices versus quantities decision to the firms by offering them the choice between an emissions tax and permit trading such an approach is currently used in swiss climate policy we provide a detailed characterization of the optimal policy and show that this approach reduces expected social costs compared to a pure tax or permit trading regime we demonstrate that an optimal allocation of firms to instruments can be achieved despite substantial informational constraints and that all firms gain from the introduction of the instrument choice compared to optimally designed single instrument policies furthermore we discuss the conditions under which this approach is likely to be preferable to a hybrid regulation

market power and transferable property rights the appeal of using markets as a means of allocating scarce resources stems in large part from the assumption that a market will approximate the competitive ideal when competition is not a foregone conclusion the question naturally arises as to how a firm might manipulate the market to its own advantage this paper analyzes the issue of market power in the context of markets for transferable property rights first a model is developed that explains how a single firm with market power might exercise its influence this is followed by an examination of the model in the context of a particular policy problem the control of particulate sulfates in the los angeles region

pollution permits and compliance strategies abstract this paper analyzes the impact of spot and futures markets for tradeable pollution permits on the potential polluters compliance decisions polluters can buy permits invest in pollution abatement or else stop production or source out we show that stand alone spot markets induce excessive investment the introduction of a futures market reduces this incentive to invest but is not the optimal way to control pollution a menu of options on pollution rights possibly coupled with intertemporally bundled sales yields higher welfare because of its focus on long run demand elasticities and rent extraction this paper can be applied to a variety of situations such as demand side management public transportation bypass in telecommunications or forward sales by a private monopolist

on a fundamental advantage of permits over taxes for the control of pollution we extend the tax versus permits literature by considering permit supply functions and pollution tax functions that are generalizations of the usual constant permit supply and constant pollution tax rate in our model pollution is not uniformly mixed and the regulator is uncertain about the polluting firms abatement costs we determine the optimal permit supply functions and the optimal pollution tax functions using these functions we show that permits lead unambiguously to lower total expected costs than taxes we analyze the magnitude of this difference for a simple model of climate change by relating the optimal permit supply functions to weitzman am econ rev 68 683 691 1978 we provide a new interpretation of his results

efficiency in pollution control in the short and long runs a system of rental emission permits efficiency in pollution control in the short and long runs a system of rental emission permits author s robert a collinge and wallace e oates source the canadian journal of economics revue canadienne d economique vol 15 no 2 may 1982 pp 346 354 published by blackwell publishing on behalf of the canadian economics association stable url http www jstor org stable 134787 accessed 05 05 2008 21 07

innovation in pollution control comparisons of the various institutional arrangements for controlling pollutant emissions from individual sources effluent fees effluent control subsidies marketable permits and direct command and control regulation have usually focused on their static efficiency properties and institutional feasibility e g dales 1968 zerbe 1970 baumol and oates 1975 kneese and schultze 1975 marin 1978 mills and white 1978 spence and weitzman 1978 russell 1979 a relatively neglected area has been the study of how each arrangement influences innovation in pollution control a few studies e g kneese and schultze 1975 marin 1978 mills and white 1978 russell 1979 have casually claimed that the control methods that rely on economic incentives provide superior incentives for innovation but there have been few systematic studies of the question this paper provides a simple model of pollution control innovation by a profitmaximizing polluter who is subject to the various control methods the consequences of the methods will be explored in three major contexts first we assume that the polluter and the innovation is a small enough part of the overall pollution problem so that none of the important marginal conditions are changed by the innovation second we assume that the polluter and the innovation are important enough so that marginal conditions are changed by the innovations but that the governmental authority determining pollution control incentives or levels fails to make the appropriate adjustments third we again assume that the innovation causes marginal conditions to change but in this case the governmental authority makes the appropriate adjustments we use the term ratcheting to describe this last phenomenon in all cases we assume that the innovating polluter correctly predicts the reactions of the governmental authority and bases his innovation decisions on that prediction a profit maximizing entrepreneur would normally be expected to adopt any innovation that promised gains present discounted value to him in excess of initial

environmental policy reconsidered the role of technological innovation abstract this paper discusses recent environmental policy wisdom in the light of technological and organizational innovation starting from empirical evidence it argues that the main econometric models which are used in environmental policy analysis do not consider properly the determinants and effects of innovation and offer unreliable estimates of policy effects some solutions to the latter problem show that the integration between environmental policy and industrial policy can be more efficient than traditional environmental policies in the protection of the environment technological cooperation moreover can be an important instrument to stabilize international environmental agreements

long term crop productivity response and its interaction with cereal markets and energy prices abstract crop yields are endogenous as long as economic agents adjust to permanent changes in expected prices the literature however does not offer a definitive value of how much yield would change in response to sustained price changes to fill the gap we use available scientific findings and data to estimate yield elasticities that enable agricultural commodity and food policy analysis using a world market model with short to long run yield response we show the impacts of sustained energy price shocks on global cereal supply and demand the results highlight substantial differences in quantity and price effects depending on the yield elasticities these results demonstrate the need to recognize yield response when assessing impacts of energy prices or biofuel production on food uses or more generally on food security in the face of income and population growth evolving dietary patterns climate change implications or other long run pressures

evaluating research and education performance in indian agricultural development india s agricultural research spending has long been regionally uneven regional research intensity ratios which account for size differences indicate research spending has consistently favored southern and western states over northern central and eastern ones farm production patterns have however changed in recent years and regional output growth is being driven by new commodity mixes in this paper we ask which region had the highest factor productivity growth and rate of return to investments in public agricultural research and higher education our analysis relies on a 1980 2008 indian agricultural production and policy dataset together with a dual heteroscedastic production frontier to decompose total factor productivity tfp growth into formal technical progress and efficiency elements the model s regional flexibility affords region to region comparison of multiple research return rates tfp growth and the elements influencing them regardless of return rate measure or allocation scenario evaluated the north has enjoyed the highest return to research spending and the central and east the lowest factor productivity growth has however been strongest in the south primarily on account of efficiency gains overall though the technical progress and productivity growth easily attributable to government supported research has been rather low this article is protected by copyright all rights reserved

managing permit markets to stabilize prices the political economy of environmental policy favors the use of quantity based instruments over price based instruments e g tradable permits over green taxes at least in the united states with cost uncertainty however there are clear efficiency advantages to prices in cases where the marginal damages of emissions are relatively flat such as with greenhouse gases the question arises therefore of whether one can design flexible quantity policies that mimic the behavior of price policies namely stable permit prices and abatement costs we explore a number of quantity plus policies that replicate the behavior of a price policy through rules that adjust the effective permit cap for unexpectedly low or high costs they do so without necessitating any monetary exchanges between the government and the regulated firms which can be a significant political barrier to the use of price instruments

agricultural research spending must increase in light of future uncertainties abstract agricultural productivity depends critically on investments in research and development r d but there is a long lag in this response failing to invest today in improvements of agricultural productivity cannot be simply corrected a few decades later if the world finds itself short of food at that point in time this fundamental irreversibility is particularly problematic in light of uncertain future population income and climate change as portrayed in the ipcc s shared socio economic pathways ssps this paper finds the optimal path of agricultural r d spending over the 21st century for each ssp along with valuation of those regrets associated with investment decisions later revealed to be in error the maximum regret is minimized to find a robust optimal r d pathway that factors in key uncertainties and the lag in productivity response to r d results indicate that the whole of uncertainty s impact on r d is greater than the sum of its individual parts uncertainty in future population has the dominant impact on the optimal r d expenditure path the robust solution suggests that the optimal r d spending strategy is very close to the one that will increase agricultural productivity fast enough to feed the world under the most populous scenario it also suggests that society should accelerate r d spending up to mid century thereafter moderating this growth rate

ex post efficient permit markets a detailed analysis this paper provides a detailed analysis of ex post efficient permit markets after a short review of institutional designs that can achieve ex post efficiency under uncertainty and asymmetric information we analyze the effects of an ex post efficient regulation on the expected costs of the regulated firms on their investment behavior and on the incentives for strategic behavior on imperfectly competitive permit markets also we inquire about the budget effects of the regulation our results show that ex post efficient permit markets have considerable benefits beside the direct increase in expected social welfare

saving investment and capital mobility in eu member countries a panel data analysis of the feldstein horioka puzzle in this paper we reexamine the long standing and puzzling correlation between national saving and investment in 14 european union eu countries we employ a panel data set for the period 1970 201