the impact of population on co2 emissions evidence from european countries this paper analyses the impact of population growth on co2 emissions in european union countries traditionally researchers have assumed a unitary elasticity of emissions with respect to population growth in this study population is treated as a predictor in the model instead of being included as part of the dependent variable per capita emissions thus relaxing the above mentioned assumption of unitary elasticity we also contribute to the existing literature by taking into account the presence of heterogeneity in the sample and considering a dynamic specification the sample covers the period 1975 1999 for the current european union members our results show that the impact of population growth on emissions is more than proportional for recent accession countries whereas for old eu members the elasticity is lower than unity and non significant when the properties of the time series and the dynamics are correctly specified the different impact of population change on co2 emissions for the current eu members should therefore be taken into account in future discussions of climate change policies within the eu

an investigation of the role of china s urban population on coal consumption abstract this paper investigates the causal relationship between urban population real gdp electricity production and coal consumption in china for the period 1971 2009 using a vector autoregression framework and a modified version of the granger 1969 causality test proposed by toda and yamamoto j econ 66 1995 225 the results suggest that there is causality running from gdp to coal consumption the variance decomposition analysis report that urban population and coal affect electricity production variability over the forecast period we also find that increasing urban population may negatively affect china s gdp over time policy measures aimed at influencing gdp could ultimately affect coal consumption

democracy financial openness and global carbon dioxide emissions heterogeneity across existing emission levels summary the determinants of co 2 emissions have attracted many researchers over the past few decades most of studies however ignore the possibility that effect of independent variables on co 2 emissions could vary throughout the co 2 emission distribution we address this issue by applying quantile regression methods we examine whether greater democracy and more financial openness consistently reduce emissions among the most and least emission nations our results show that the effect of democracy on co 2 emissions is heterogeneous across quantiles among the most emissions nations greater democracy appears to reduce emissions but more financial openness does not appear to reduce it

a semi parametric panel data analysis on the urbanization carbon emissions nexus for oecd countries abstract this study takes a fresh look at the presence of an urbanization carbon emissions environmental kuznets curve for a panel of the organization for economic co operation and development oecd countries from 1960 to 2010 using a recently developed semi parametric panel fixed effects regression model through incorporating a quadratic term for the urbanization variable into the stochastic impacts by regression on population affluence and technology model our analysis represents one of the first oecd studies aimed at determining the effect of urbanization on carbon emissions and identifying the relationship between these two variables compared with parametric panel fixed effects regression more robust results from the recently developed method revealed that energy intensity and per capita gdp had clear effects on per capita carbon emissions urbanization also significantly contributed to changes in per capita carbon emissions we also found strong evidence for an inverse u shaped curve relationship between urbanization and carbon emissions verifying the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis these findings advance the emerging consensus on the urbanization carbon emissions nexus also the novel model used combined with our estimation method can be readily extended to cover other regions for investigating the relationship between development and environmental pollution

beyond optimal city size an evaluation of alternative urban growth patterns the aim of the paper is to present a critical view of theoretical works on city size we begin with the consideration that during the 1960s and 1970s the question of optimal city size tended to b

technology gap global value chain and carbon intensity evidence from global manufacturing industries abstract the technological progress of a country may mean that its technology gap compared to the frontier has changed which will induce a change in its positioning in the global value chain and affect its carbon intensity using paten data input output database and the global value chain index we employ systematic generalized method of moments quantile regression with panel data and multilevel mediation analysis to measure empirically the impact of the technology gap on carbon intensity and positioning on the global value chain the empirical analysis shows that narrowing the technology gap will reduce significantly a country s carbon intensity further the effect of the technology gap on carbon intensity is more pronounced on industries with higher carbon intensity the mechanism test using the mediation effect model proves that the impact of the technology gap on carbon intensity is achieved by changing in the position of global value chain the findings suggest that a country s carbon intensity performance is not only affected by its own technological progress but also by global frontiers therefore a country should not only pay attention to its own technological progress but also to the development of global frontier technologies and speed of technological progress

culture income and co2 emission given the devastating effects of global warming the problem of human induced climate change and in particular carbon dioxide emissions has been high on the global policy agenda in this study we examine the relationship between national culture carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth in the framework of the environmental kuznets curve ekc applying system gmm panel estimator across 69 developed and developing countries we confirm the existence of ekc and show that culture significantly affects the income emission relationship moreover the effects of the six cultural dimensions on ekc can be collapsed into two i masculinity power distance and indulgence move the ekc upward and shift the income turning point to the left and ii individualism uncertainty and long term orientation move the ekc downward while shifting the income turning point to the right the impact of culture on ekc remains also robust for alternative specifications future policy and global initiatives in sustainable development should incorporate the multidimensional impact of culture on national behavior towards environment and economic growth a relationship that has been largely ignored in economic decision making models

the relationship between urbanization energy use and carbon emissions evidence from a panel of association of southeast asian nations asean countries abstract this study uses annual data to detect the nexus between urbanization energy use and carbon emissions in a panel of association of southeast asian nations asean countries spanning the period 1980 2009 the study contributes to the increasing empirical literature by investigating the effects of urbanization and detecting causal links between the variables results from the pedroni panel cointegration tests show evidence for the existence of a long term equilibrium relationship between urbanization energy use and carbon emissions for the asean countries using the panel fully modified ordinary least squares technique the effect of urbanization on carbon emissions is further revealed i e a 1 rise in urban population results in a 0 20 increase in carbon emissions unilateral short run causal relationships from urbanization to energy use and from urbanization to carbon emissions have been found by granger causality tests also the results clearly indicate that in the long term urbanization together with energy use granger causes carbon emissions the paper concludes with main findings and provides recommendations toward rational planning of urban development and energy efficiency improvement strategies for the asean countries

how does energy consumption affect china s urbanization new evidence from dynamic threshold panel models abstract energy consumption may play different roles at different stages of urbanization and economic growth given china s rapid economic development and urbanization process this study tries to explore the possible nonlinear relationship between energy consumption and urbanization in china against the background of promoting new type urbanization the level of china s urbanization is evaluated comprehensively using the entropy method a newly developed dynamic threshold panel model is employed to examine the nexus of energy consumption and comprehensive urbanization with full consideration of heterogeneous characteristics the panel data vector autoregression or pvar model is also used to estimate the direct effects of various energy consumption patterns on the urbanization the empirical results indicate that the nexus of energy consumption and urbanization is indeed nonlinear and that energy consumption is conducive to promote china s urbanization at the current stage of development however the positive effect decreases when there is an increase in energy consumption intensity and energy consumption scale whereas the effect increases with the promotion of energy consumption structure

the effect of new type urbanization on energy consumption in china a spatial econometric analysis abstract china s urbanization is rapidly proceeding while bringing marked impact on the energy consumption this paper contributes to current literature by using an improved spatial econometric model stochastic impacts by regression on population affluence and technology stirpat to investigate the effect of urbanization on energy consumption for china s regions the impact of urbanization is further disaggregated into direct and indirect impacts from the perspective of spatial econometrics results show that if the urbanization level increases by 1 0 energy consumption levels will correspondingly decrease by 0 089 the spatial spillover effect on adjacent areas is positive a 1 0 increase in one specific area s urbanization level leads to a 0 136 increase in an adjacent area s energy consumption it is suggested that it is essential to devote major efforts to energy conservation in the process of improving the new type urbanization in particular disaggregating china s targets for controlling energy consumption into smaller targets for different regions will contribute to controlling the growth of energy consumption

the impact of energy consumption and economic development on ecological footprint and co2 emissions evidence from a markov switching equilibrium correction model abstract reducing the impact of air pollution and global environmental degradation on human health and quality of life for qatari citizens represents the most important objective of the qatar national vision 2030 with respect to this vision this study investigates the effects of economic growth energy consumption trade openness urbanization and financial development on environmental degradation by using the markov switching equilibrium correction model with shifts in both the intercept and income per capita slope for the period 1970 2015 unlike existing studies and in addition to the co 2 emissions pollutant this paper uses the total ecological footprint and ecological carbon footprint as new proxies of environmental degradation empirical results show strong evidence for cointegration with markov shifts in particular our results show that the non control for breaks can hide the true relationship among variables the results show also that when controlling for breaks the environment kuznets curve ekc hypothesis holds for the co 2 emissions and ecological carbon footprint pollutants and the u shaped behavior holds for the total ecological footprint moreover the results show that these two behaviors ekc and u shaped are regime dependent regarding the other explanatory variables the results show that trade openness and urbanization worsen ecological footprint however the electricity consumption and financial development are positively related to the ecological footprint and negatively related to ecological carbon footprint and co 2 emissions finally we found evidence for the growth hypothesis for both pollutants based on these results a detailed economic energy and environmental policy is proposed and discussed for the case of qatar

footprints on the earth the environmental consequences of modernity growing evidence demonstrating clear threats to the sustainability of the ecosystems supporting human societies has given rise to a variety of sociological theories of human environment interactions these environmental impact theories fall into three general perspectives human ecology modernization and political economy these theories however have not been empirically tested in a common analytic framework here a framework that relies on ecological principles is adopted and modified using a revised stochastic formulation of that framework and the most comprehensive measure of environmental impact to date the ecological footprint the factors driving the environmental impacts of societies are assessed the overall findings support the claims of human ecologists partially support the claims of political economists and contradict the claims of modernization theorists basic material conditions such as population economic production urbanization and geographical factors all affect the environment and explain the vast majority of cross national variation in environmental impact factors derived from neo liberal modernization theory such as political freedom civil liberties and state environmentalism have no effect on impacts taken together these findings suggest societies cannot be sanguine about achieving sustainability via a continuation of current trends in economic growth and institutional change authors

examining the multiple impacts of technological progress on co2 emissions in china a panel quantile regression approach abstract whilst a plethora of literature has viewed technological progress as one of the critical influencing factors in relation to energy consumption and co2 emissions little effort has been made to identify the sectoral differences in the relationship between technological progress and co2 emissions thereby this paper remedies the inadequacies in the extant literature by empirically investigating the impact of technological progress on co2 emissions specifically taking into account its heterogeneous effect in various economic sectors this paper first decomposes the effect of technological progress as taking place in heavy industry in light industry in construction industry and in service industry a panel quantile regression approach and a balanced city panel data model are then applied covering the period 2001 2013 in china the empirical results show that technological progress in heavy industry and light industry surprisingly facilitates a higher level of co2 emissions despite its prominent contribution to energy efficiency improvement meanwhile as distinct from the effect it shows in the heavy and light industries technological progress in construction and service industries exerts a negative effect on co2 emissions additionally this paper further discovers that the strength of the multiple impacts of technological progress also varies with the level of emitters by studying the heterogeneous effect brought about by technological progress in different economic sectors and emitters this paper provides a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between co2 emissions and technological progress

does urbanization lead to less energy use and lower co2 emissions a cross country analysis despite the relationship between urbanization energy use and co2 emissions has been extensively studied in recent years little attention has been paid to differences in development stages or income levels most previous studies have implicitly assumed that the impact of urbanization is homogenous for all countries this assumption can be questionable as there are many characteristic differences among countries of different levels of affluence this paper investigates empirically the effects of urbanization on energy use and co2 emissions with consideration of the different development stages using the stochastic impacts by regression on population affluence and technology stirpat model and a balanced panel dataset of 99 countries over the period 1975 2005 the findings suggest that the impact of urbanization on energy use and emissions varies across the stages of development surprisingly urbanization decreases energy use in the low income group while it increases energy use in the middle and high income groups the impact of urbanization on emissions is positive for all the income groups but it is more pronounced in the middle income group than in the other income groups these novel findings not only help advance the existing literature but also can be of special interest to policy makers and urban planners

the environmental impact of sharing household and urban economies in co2 emissions abstract studies find that per capita carbon dioxide co 2 emissions decrease with household size and urban density the demographic trends of declining household size and dense urbanization therefore produce countervailing effects with respect to emissions we posit that both household and urban economies are driven by proximity and realized through sharing carbon intensive goods with detailed data from the united states consumer expenditure survey we construct a dataset of co 2 emissions at the household level and leverage a unique measure of residential density to estimate household and urban economies our estimates show that dense urban areas have per capita emissions roughly 20 lower than rural areas and that adding an additional member to a household reduces per capita emissions by about 6 we also find that household economies are about twice as large in rural areas as in dense urban areas and develop an explanation for this phenomenon in theory the carbon benefits of dense urbanization have the potential to offset the effects of declining household size however using historical us census data and extrapolating from our estimates we find that lost household economies have outpaced increased urban economies over the past fifty years

does increasing investment in research and development promote economic growth decoupling from carbon emission growth an empirical analysis of brics countries abstract it is generally recognized that increasing research and development investment is an effective measure to promote economic and social progress an open question is if increasing research and development investment help economic growth decoupling from carbon emission this study investigates research and development investment and carbon emission in brics countries by using the fully modified ordinary least squares for empirical estimation from 1996 to 2014 the results show that every 1 increase in research and development investment carbon emissions will be decreased by 0 8122 for the brics as a whole which indicates increasing research and development investment has a positive impact on decoupling economic growth from environmental pressure for individual this impact is most significant in china weak in russia and india however it also should be noted that only increasing research and development investment cannot achieve the decoupling between economic growth and carbon emission because other factors such as economic activity industrialization and urbanization renewable energy also influences the decoupling economic growth from carbon emission the results also show that economic activity industrialization and urbanization pose negative impact on the decoupling whereas renewable energy consumption promote the decoupling

influential factors of carbon emissions intensity in oecd countries evidence from symbolic regression abstract carbon emissions intensity is used as a yardstick to evaluate the relative extent of carbon emissions of a country to reduce carbon emissions intensity it is crucial to find out the dominant factors that enhance it and take actions to manage them this study is an attempt to employ symbolic regression method to explore the most influential factors of carbon emissions intensity in 34 oecd member countries using data from 1995 to 2014 rooted in genetic programming symbolic regression method can explore the inherent functional structures amidst the variables and could discover the influential factors robotically the results confirm that the influential factors of carbon emissions intensity vary from country to country gdp is found as the most frequent and important factor of carbon emissions intensity in 17 countries each of industrialization and technological innovation is the prominent factor in every 4 countries and each of urbanization total population and foreign direct investment plays a pro active role in 3 individual nations based on the empirical results some policy implications are also conferred

residential electricity demand in taiwan this paper examines the residential demand for electricity in taiwan as a function of household disposable income population growth the price of electricity and the degree of urbanization short and long term effects are separated through the use of an error correction model in the long run the income elasticity is unit elastic the own price effect is negative and inelastic in an error correction framework the short run income and price effects are small and less than the long run effects cooling degree day effects have a positive impact on short run consumption we have used a proxy variable urbanization to capture economic development characteristics and changes in electricity using capital stocks not explained by income the variable provides significant explanatory power to the model both in the short and long run we interpret it as controlling for economic development factors not captured by the pure income effect and we think it holds promise for explaining residential electricity consumption in other developing countries

the compact city just or just compact a preliminary analysis the aim of the research described in this paper is to examine the validity of the claims that higher density urban form promotes social equity that is promotes benefits for the life chances of low income groups overall the evidence suggests that for medium sized english cities higher urban densities may be positive for some aspects of social equity and negative for others more specifically likely benefits include improved public transport reduced social segregation and better access to facilities while the main problems are likely to be reduced living space and a lack of affordable housing investigations of different aspects of density show that the cities that most support social equity appear to be those that have a large proportion of high density housing

information strategies for energy conservation a field experiment in india abstract little is known about the effectiveness of information strategies on energy conservation in developing countries in this study we conduct a field experiment in an apartment complex in india to test how information about electricity usage impacts the electricity consumption of urban middle class households our results based on fifteen minute electricity readings over an academic year show that non monetary messages that framed electricity consumption in terms of environmental and health impacts were more effective than messages emphasizing the monetary savings of reducing electricity consumption households in the environmental health group accessed the online energy monitoring dashboard more frequently and reduced their electricity usage by 18 4 relative to the control group households in the monetary group did not significantly alter their usage these results about revealed preferences are contrasted with stated preferences disclosed in a survey of urban indians who describe money not health as the main motivation for energy conservation our findings have important implications for the development non monetary strategies for energy conservation in developing countries

impact of urbanization on energy demand an empirical study of the yangtze river economic belt in china abstract this paper provides an empirical assessment of the effects of china s urbanization on its energy demand for 2003 2014 using a dataset of 108 cities located in the yangtze river economic belt both demographic urbanization du and land urbanization lu are considered in the empirical analysis the results show that urbanization exerts significant and positive impacts on energy demand during the study period our empirical suggest that one unit rises in du and lu rises the energy demand by 48 85 91 62 and 65 54 68 09 respectively without with considering control variables the energy demand effects of urbanization still hold when considering spatial and heterogeneity factors these results are robust to alternative measures of urbanization and empirical model specifications our results indicate that policymakers should improve the quality of urbanization to promote the growth of high tech and high quality industries avoiding excessive energy consumption with extensive urbanization large cities should not be allowed to grow unchecked more attention should be paid to promote the development of medium sized cities and implement a balanced population distribution among different cities the energy demand structure industrial and residential primary and secondary renewable and nonrenewable should be optimized by introducing cleaner low carbon technology and its transformation

is urbanization eco friendly an energy and land use cross country analysis abstract urbanization imposes complicated and heterogeneous impacts on ecosystems with the purpose of reflecting the comprehensive influence of urbanization on the ecosystem we choose the ecological footprint to represent the ecosystem s integrated change and distinguish low income middle income and high income countries to reflect the nonlinear impact this paper uses both static and dynamic stirpat stochastic impacts by regression on population affluence and technology models to analyze 72 countries at different income levels during the 1980 2008 period the results show that the overall ecological elasticity of urbanization at the global level is negative specifically results suggest urbanization associated to increased income to have eco friendly potential in terms of decreased ecological footprint to explain such results this paper answers two questions why does urbanization show ecological protection effects why does a more pronounced protection effect seem associated to increased income levels improved market mechanism increased resource use efficiency as well as increased environmental awareness in urban areas associated to increased income levels are likely to support an eco friendly urbanization process burden shift to low income countries also needs to be taken into account in order to avoid policies that increase wellbeing locally at the expenses of far away areas

exploring the relationship between urbanization energy consumption and co2 emission in mena countries abstract this study explored the relationship between urbanization energy consumption and co2 emission in the mena countries the panel model was utilized taking the period 1980 2009 into consideration pedroni cointegration test results showed that urbanization energy consumption and co2 emission were cointegrated the dynamic ols results also showed that there was a long run bi directional positive relationship between urbanization energy consumption and co2 emission however the significance of the long run relationship between urbanization energy consumption and co2 emission varied across the countries based on their level of income and development moreover long and short run bi directional causal relationships were found between the variables based on the granger causality test results from the results of this study it is important for the urban planners and policy makers in the mena countries to slow the rapid increase in urbanization the level of energy consumption and co2 emission in the mena countries increased more than double thus slowing down the urbanization level can help reduce the level of pollution and energy consumption in addition the increased energy efficiency implementation of energy savings projects energy conservation and energy infrastructure outsourcing reduce the level of pollution produced by urban areas

how urbanization affects energy use in developing countries abstract this paper identifies mechanisms whereby urbanization affects energy consumption industrialization and urbanization accompany each other during economic development but urbanization exerts a number of independent influences on energy use it permits economies of scale in production but requires more transportation food must be transported to urbanized populations and relatively smaller agricultural populations must modernize entailing considerable increases in agricultural energy use in cities a number of production activities which were domestically provided in rural areas using human or animal energy shift to sources outside the household using modern energy sources the largest single source of change in energy use is personal transportation passenger transport in cities is heavily weighted towards fuel using modes particularly as incomes increase to assess the overall impact a regression analysis of 59 developing countries for 1980 is conducted holding constant per capita income and the extent of industrialization the elasticity of energy consumption per capita and per dollar of gdp is between 0 35 and 0 48

what causes pm2 5 pollution cross economy empirical analysis from socioeconomic perspective abstract is it true that as the mainstream intuition asserts urbanization and industrialization are the two main socioeconomic drivers of pm2 5 how do the two trends affect pm2 5 emission this paper quantitatively analyzes the socioeconomic drivers of pm2 5 through assessment on stochastic impacts by regression on population affluence and technology stripat based on the panel data of 79 developing countries over 2001 2010 the average levels of pm2 5 pollution are calculated using remote sensing data overcoming the difficulties that developing countries are in lack of pm2 5 monitors and that point data cannot reflect the overall level of pm2 5 pollution on a large scale squared terms of income and urbanization and their cross term are included in the regression models respectively to analyze the possible heterogeneous impacts on pm2 5 emissions in different development stages the results show that income urbanization and service sector have significant impact on pm2 5 pollution income has a positive effect on pm2 5 all the time but the effect decreases as the level of urbanization or income goes up an inverted u relationship exists between urbanization and pm2 5 in which pm2 5 pollution positively correlates with a low level of income or urbanization but negatively at a high level policy recommendations from the perspective of macro level social and economic regulation are provided for developing economies to reduce pm2 5 pollution

vix option pricing and cboe vix term structure a new methodology for volatility derivatives valuation abstract this study integrates cboe vix term structure and vix futures to simplify vix option pricing in multifactor models exponential and hump volatility functions with one to three factor models of the vix evolution are used to examine their pricing for vix options across strikes and maturities the results show that using exponential volatility functions presents an effective choice as pricing models for vix calls whereas hump volatility functions provide efficient out of sample valuation for most vix puts in particular with deep in the money and deep out of the money pricing errors for calls can be further reduced with a two factor model

impacts of urbanization and real economic development on co 2 emissions in non high income countries empirical research based on the extended stirpat model abstract this article focuses on the effects of urbanization and economic development on carbon dioxide co 2 emissions in non high income countries using the extended stirpat model following the building idea of the ipat model co 2 emissions i are decomposed into nine factors population affluence technology level urbanization level urban employment level industrialization level population carrying intensity of the real economy built on goods and services co 2 emission intensity and energy intensity then the extended ipat model is reconstructed as the extended stirpat model furthermore based on panel data from 1991 to 2013 and using the extended stirpat model this article respectively analyzes the effects of the driving forces especially urbanization and real economic development on co 2 emissions for non high income countries upper and lower middle income countries the results indicate that urbanization and real economic development have a small impact on co 2 emissions in non high income countries accelerating urbanization and real economic development will not result in a significant increase in co 2 emissions in fact for upper middle income countries real economic development will lead to a decrease in co 2 emissions and acceleration of the urbanization process will only cause a small increase in emissions the main driving factors of co 2 emissions remain population affluence energy intensity and co 2 emission intensity this article also quantitatively calculates the actual contribution rate of each driving force for the 1991 2013 period the study contributes to understanding the emission characteristics and key driving forces in each type of countries allowing for appropriate policy recommendations

real time prediction with u k monetary aggregates in the presence of model uncertainty a popular account for the demise of the u k s monetary targeting regime in the 1980s blames the fluctuating predictive relationships between broad money and inflation and real output growth yet ex post policy analysis based on heavily revised data suggests no fluctuations in the predictive content of money in this paper we investigate the predictive relationships for inflation and output growth using both real time and heavily revised data we consider a large set of recursively estimated vector autoregressive var and vector error correction models vecm these models differ in terms of lag length and the number of cointegrating relationships we use bayesian model averaging bma to demonstrate that real time monetary policymakers faced considerable model uncertainty the in sample predictive content of money fluctuated during the 1980s as a result of data revisions in the presence of model uncertainty this feature is only apparent with real time data as heavily revised data obscure these fluctua