economic valuation of the threat posed by the establishment of the asian tiger mosquito in australia invasive species policy could be better informed if we understood how much people value reductions in the risks posed by these organisms this study investigates the public s willingness to pay wtp for additional measures to reduce the risk of invasion of the australian mainland by the asian tiger mosquito atm the study contributes to the literature by applying a stated preference method to estimate the public s wtp to reduce the risk of an atm invasion expressed as a change in probability it is the first ex ante invasive species analysis to test over two discrete invasion reduction probabilities based on management effort further to overcome the challenges in valuing changes in probabilities the study presented respondents with a well defined discrete difference in the final probability with one scenario reducing risk from 50 to 25 and the other from 50 to 5 we find a significant difference in the mean wtp values between these two scenarios a 67 vs a 90 the overall conclusion is that estimated benefits of reducing the probability of an atm incursion outweigh the costs

recent developments in consumer credit and default literature this survey discusses recent contributions to the quantitative literature on unsecured consumer debt and default and some ongoing challenges for the literature key topics include the sources of the rise in personal bankruptcies the importance of asymmetric information and the effects of developments in information technologies on consumer credit markets delinquency and informal bankruptcy debt collection and restructuring of distressed debt the cyclical behavior of consumer debt and default and the insurance role of household debt implications for welfare analysis and policy design are discussed several theoretical contributions and approaches to modeling the consumer credit markets are also highlighted

protest responses and willingness to pay attitude toward paying for stormwater pollution abatement abstract in contingent valuation cv surveys there is often a proportion of individuals who are not willing to pay to obtain avoid an increase decrease in some attribute of a particular environmental public good some of these respondents might protest an aspect of the cv survey e g payment vehicle or the behavioral intention i e willingness to pay wtp constituting the measure of economic value respondents attitudes toward the behavior of paying for a particular public good may contribute to the decision to pay independent of other explanatory variables such as the price of the intervention household income and methodological characteristics of the cv survey moreover attitude toward paying for the good may manifest in protest responses as a reaction to higher prices and methodological factors e g the payment vehicle to the extent that protest beliefs are dependent on such matters of survey design they may be alleviated through changes in cv methodology however to the extent that protest beliefs are a reaction to the act of paying methodological remedies may not be effective cv surveys of stormwater pollution abatement were conducted in four australian state capital cities the surveys differed with respect to the type of pollution abatement intervention the payment regime the vector of prices used in the dichotomous choice question and the institution responsible for implementing the stormwater pollution intervention protest beliefs were measured for all respondents irrespective of their responses to the wtp question results indicated that attitude toward paying underpinned protest beliefs regarding the role of government in stormwater management and individual rights to unpolluted waterways this attitude was present in each city sample despite methodological differences between the cv surveys attitude toward paying explained variability in wtp and was a larger predictor than was price household income was significantly associated with attitude toward paying and this relationship was also invariant over city samples protest beliefs were not independent of either the wtp question or demographic factors such as household income rather these beliefs were related to wtp through attitudes toward the act of paying for stormwater pollution abatement censoring protest responses in the present study would bias cv samples toward those individuals who are favorably disposed toward paying for environmental public goods and those from higher income households

assessing the validity and reliability of contingent values a comparison of on site users off site users and non users abstract imperfect information in contingent markets can affect the validity and reliability of contingent values willingness to pay wtp for changes in natural resource allocations survey respondents can acquire information about the natural resource to be valued from behavior such as on site use of the resource off site use of the resource and or from the survey itself in this paper we compare the validity and reliability of wtp from respondents who obtained information in these different ways using theoretical validity tests based on relative prices as well as income we find that wtp is valid for respondents with information from on site and or off site use willingness to pay is less valid for respondents who had no information about the natural resource before they participated in the survey using an alternative form reliability test we find that wtp is in the technical sense reliable for all respondents and somewhat more reliable for on site users

consumption smoothing and debtor protections abstract protections for defaulting debtors are a widely used form of consumption insurance this paper evaluates the costs and benefits of this insurance both inside and outside of bankruptcy first i show that consumption declines by 6 upon default revealing a potential role for greater debtor protections to smooth consumption second i use changes in states laws to estimate the impact of one type of debtor protection asset exemptions on repayment in default and interest rates while higher exemptions smooth consumption by reducing collection in default the interest rate cost is large relative to the benefits adapting a sufficient statistics formula from the literature the estimates imply that the cost of additional exemption protection exceeds what debtors are willing to pay

the un importance of chapter 7 wealth exemption levels this paper examines the effects of the chapter 7 wealth exemption level on welfare bankruptcy filings debt and on asset holdings i build a heterogeneous agent life cycle model which features uninsurable income and expense shocks moreover households can borrow and save simultaneously when a borrower defaults on her debt by filing for chapter 7 bankruptcy she can keep her assets up to the wealth exemption level wealth exemption levels are important for two reasons first they explain the extensive and intensive margin of the credit card debt puzzle around thirty percent of borrowers both in the model and in the data who borrow at high interest rates simultaneously save at low interest rates however these borrowers borrow and save only relatively small amounts a few thousand u s dollars second ignoring the exemption level biases results because it overstates the costs of defaulting the welfare gains from chapter 7 compared to the european system where debt is not discharged are twice as high when exemption levels are positive compared to when they are ignored at the same time wealth exemption levels are unimportant in the sense that they have an impact only at low exemption levels the effects of increases in the exemption level fade out very quickly there is no strong positive relationship between exemption levels which vary across u s states and default rates in the model this is in contrast to the previous literature but consistent with the data the reason is that those borrowers who might default do not own much wealth therefore only very few households are affected by increases in the exemption level

risk based pricing of interest rates for consumer loans abstract by focusing on observable default risk s role in loan terms and the subsequent consequences for household behavior this paper shows that lenders increasingly used risk based pricing of interest rates in consumer loan markets during the mid 1990s it tests three resulting predictions first the premium paid per unit of risk should have increased over this period second debt levels should have reacted accordingly third fewer high risk households should have been denied credit further contributing to the interest rate spread between the highest and lowest risk borrowers for people obtaining loans the premium paid per unit of risk did indeed become significantly larger after the mid 1990s for example for a 0 01 increase in the probability of bankruptcy the corresponding interest rate increase tripled for first mortgages doubled for automobile loans and rose nearly six fold for second mortgages additionally changes in borrowing levels and debt access reflected these new pricing practices particularly for secured debt borrowing increased most for the low risk households who saw their relative borrowing costs fall furthermore while very high risk households gained expanded access to credit the increases in their risk premiums implied that their borrowing as a whole either rose less or sometimes fell

default and punishment in general equilibrium we extend the standard model of general equilibrium with incomplete markets to allow for default and punishment by thinking of assets as pools the equilibrating variables include expected delivery rates along with the usual prices of assets and commodities by reinterpreting the variables our model encompasses a broad range of adverse selection and signalling phenomena in a perfectly competitive general equilibrium framework perfect competition eliminates the need for lenders to compute how the size of their loan or the price they quote might affect default rates it also makes for a simple equilibrium refinement which we propose in order to rule out irrational pessimism about deliveries of untraded assets we show that refined equilibrium always exists in our model and that default in conjunction with refinement opens the door to a theory of endogenous assets the market chooses the promises default penalties and quantity constraints of actively traded assets

explaining the puzzle of cross state differences in bankruptcy rates abstract bankruptcy rates vary tremendously across states and it is not obvious why the number of candidate explanations is large relative to the number of states to overcome this problem we use zip code level data to identify the importance of demographic variables using within state variation this preserves state level degrees of freedom to identify the impact of state policy variables demographics wage garnishment restrictions and the fraction of bankruptcies filed under chapter 13 explain 70 percent of the variation in filing rates across states exemption rates size of public safety nets and payday loan regulations contribute virtually nothing to the cross state variance in filing rates our findings suggest that state bankruptcy rates reflect the relative costs of filing for formal bankruptcy versus informal default states without effective wage garnishment provisions allow easy informal default furthermore repayment plans mandated under chapter 13 bankruptcy often lead to repeated bank

credit card debt and default over the life cycle this paper solves an empirically parameterized model of life cycle consumption which allows for uncollaterized borrowing and the possibility of default the simulation results show that i social stigma and credit limit have a very large impact on default rates ii education level also has a significant effect on the probability of default namely through differences in the shape of lifetime labor income profiles and iii the response of simulated default rates to labor income shocks is determined by the nature of labor income uncertainty temporary versus permanent additionally the model generates simultaneous consumer holdings of credit card debt and liquid assets

characterizing the effects of valuation methodology in function based benefits transfer abstract meta analyses have demonstrated that willingness to pay wtp estimates vary systematically according to methodological factors the benefits transfer literature provides little guidance with regard to the treatment of such effects transfers are typically conducted by ignoring such effects using ad hoc adjustments or otherwise suppressing information regarding the sensitivity of wtp to methodological attributes this paper illustrates a means to characterize methodological effects within benefits transfer based on an application of the common bootstrap drawing from meta analysis the approach characterizes the sampling distribution of wtp with respect to patterns of methodological variation present in underlying studies results provide a means to characterize the extent of variation associated with predefined groups of methodological attributes providing transparent information on the sensitivity of wtp not typically available in benefits transfer

consumer durables and risky borrowing the effects of bankruptcy protection abstract there exist substantial differences in the generosity of bankruptcy protection across u s states this paper exploits cross state variation in exemption levels to assess the dual role of durable goods as informal collateral for unsecured debt and self insurance against bad shocks to earnings the generosity of bankruptcy protection is found to change both the incentives and the ability of households to accumulate durable wealth the gains from a high level of insurance are reduced by the effect of tighter credit constraints so that the net effects of a change in exemption are very small a more generous bankruptcy regulation reduces net durable wealth in the first half of the life cycle in addition the optimal level of exemption is positive but low

consumer bankruptcy a fresh start consumer bankruptcy provides partial insurance against bad luck but by driving up interest rates makes life cycle smoothing more difficult we argue that to assess this trade off one needs a quantitative model of consumer bankruptcy with three key features life cycle component idiosyncratic earnings uncertainty and expense uncertainty exogenous negative shocks to household balance sheets we find that transitory and persistent earnings shocks have very different implications for evaluating bankruptcy rules more persistent shocks make the bankruptcy option more desirable larger transitory shocks have the opposite effect our findings suggest the current us bankruptcy system may be desirable for reasonable parameter values jel d14 d91 k35

keynesian and monetarist theories of the monetary transmission process doctrinal aspects abstract this paper investigates the doctrinal link underlying differences between keynesian and monetarist approaches regarding the transmission mechanism of monetary policy consideration of the post general theory literature reveals that a key aspect of that link concerns the velocity of circulation of money the keynesian emphasis on compartmentalizing the demand for money into active and idle components resulted in a mechanical interpretation of velocity and the associated view that money does not matter the monetarist tradition illustrates the behavioral perspective adduced to velocity via adaptive price expectations by earlier quantity theorists leading to a capital theoretic reformulation of the quantity theory in terms of a stable demand function for money

a model of money and credit with application to the credit card debt puzzle many individuals simultaneously have significant credit card debt and money in the bank the credit card debt puzzle is given high interest rates on credit cards and low rates on bank accounts why not pay down the debt while economists have gone to elaborate lengths to explain this observation we argue it is a special case of the rate of return dominance puzzle from monetary economics we analyze the issue by extending standard monetary theory to incorporate consumer debt this seems interesting in its own right since developing models where money and credit coexist is a long standing challenge and it helps put into context recent discussions of consumer debt

enhanced geospatial validity for meta analysis and environmental benefit transfer an application to water quality improvements meta regression models are commonly used within benefit transfer to estimate willingness to pay wtp for environmental quality improvements theory suggests that these estimates should be sensitive to geospatial factors including resource scale market extent and the availability of substitutes and complements valuation meta regression models addressing the quantity of non market commodities sometimes incorporate spatial variables that proxy for a subset of these effects however meta analyses of wtp for environmental quality generally omit geospatial factors such as these leading to benefit transfers that are invariant to these factors this paper reports on a meta regression model for water quality benefit transfer that incorporates spatially explicit factors predicted by theory to influence wtp the metadata are drawn from stated preference studies that estimate per household wtp for water quality changes in united states water bodies and combine primary study information with extensive geospatial data from external sources results find that geospatial variables are associated with significant wtp variations as predicted by theory and that inclusion of these variables reduces transfer errors

recent developments in consumer credit and default literature consumer credit and default literature this survey discusses recent contributions to the quantitative literature on unsecured consumer debt and default and some ongoing challenges for the literature key topics include the sources of the rise in personal bankruptcies the importance of asymmetric information and the effects of developments in information technologies on consumer credit markets delinquency and informal bankruptcy debt collection and restructuring of distressed debt the cyclical behavior of consumer debt and default and the insurance role of household debt implications for welfare analysis and policy design are discussed several theoretical contributions and approaches to modeling the consumer credit markets are also highlighted

an empirical analysis of personal bankruptcy and delinquency this article uses a new dataset of credit card accounts to analyze credit card delinquency personal bankruptcy and the stability of credit risk models we estimate duration models for default and assess the relative importance of different variables in predicting default we investigate how the propensity to default has changed over time disentangling the two leading explanations for the recent increase in default rates a deterioration in the risk composition of borrowers versus an increase in borrowers willingness to default due to declines in default costs even after controlling for risk composition and economic fundamentals the propensity to default significantly increased between 1995 and 1997 standard default models missed an important time varying default factor consistent with a decline in default costs debt issued by consumers is an understudied asset class there has been particularly little academic study of recent trends in default on this debt between 1994 and 1997 the number of personal bankruptcy filings in the united states rose by about 75 the 1 35 million filings in 1997 represented well over 1 of u s households delinquency rates on credit cards rose almost as sharply federal reserve bank of cleveland 1998 the resulting losses to lenders amounted to a sizable fraction of the interest payments they collect potentially raising the average cost of credit these trends in default both in bankruptcy and delinquency are especially surprising in light of the strong economy over the period they provide an unusually rich source of variation to test the stability of models that forecast personal default and of credit risk models more generally there are two leading explanations for these trends first the risk composition of borrowers might have worsened under the risk effect less

economic valuation of the influence of invasive alien species on the economy of the seychelles islands abstract biodiversity underpins most economic activities in seychelles and loss of biodiversity as a result of invasive alien species ias could result in major negative economic impacts for the country this paper assesses the value of impacts of ias on biodiversity natural resources and the national economy using the principles of total economic value tev the contingent valuation method was used to obtain a willingness to pay wtp estimate for a policy to protect important biodiversity from ias tourists indicated a mean wtp of us 52 us 58 on top of their usual expenditures to fund conservation policy at present approximately us 0 25 million per year is spent on ias control while the economic damage associated with 4 key ias is approximately us 21 million per year comparing the benefits from eradication with the costs involved gives a benefit cost ratio greater than unity indicating that the policy of eradicating ias is economically justified however there is a long way to go before the resources devoted to the problem will be in proportion to the risks

do liquidity constraints and interest rates matter for consumer behavior evidence from credit card data this paper utilizes a unique new dataset of credit card accounts to analyze how people respond to changes in credit supply the data consist of a panel of thousands of individual credit card accounts from several different card issuers with associated credit bureau data we estimate both marginal propensities to consume mpcs out of liquidity and interest rate elasticities we also evaluate the ability of different models of consumption to rationalize our results distinguishing the permanent income hypothesis pih liquidity constraints precautionary saving and behavioral models we find that increases in credit limits generate an immediate and significant rise in debt counter to the pih the average mpc out of liquidity ddebt dlimit ranges between 10 14 the mpc is much larger for people starting near their limits consistent with binding liquidity constraints however the mpc is significant even for people starting well below their limit we show this response is consistent with buffer stock models of precautionary saving nonetheless there are other results that conventional models cannot easily explain e g why so many people are borrowing on their credit cards and simultaneously holding low yielding assets unlike most other studies we also find strong effects from changes in account specific interest rates the long run elasticity of debt to the interest rate is approximately 1 3 less than half of this elasticity represents balance shifting across cards with most reflecting net changes in total borrowing the elasticity is larger for decreases in interest rates than for increases which can explain the widespread use of temporary promotional rates the elasticity is smaller for people starting near their credit limits again consistent with liquidity constraints

consumption over the life cycle facts from consumer expenditure survey data this paper uses consumer expenditure survey data and a seminonparametric statistical model to estimate life cycle profiles of consumption controlling for demographics cohort and time effects we construct age profiles for total and nondurable consumption as well as expenditure patterns for consumer durables special emphasis is placed on the comparison of different approaches to control for changes in demo graphics over the life cycle we find significant humps over the life cycle for total nondurable and durable expenditures changes in household size account for roughly half of these humps bootstrap simulations suggest that our empirical estimates are tight in that standard errors are small

the household bankruptcy decision personal bankruptcy filings have risen from 0 3 percent of households per year in 1984 to around 1 35 percent in 1998 and 1999 transforming bankruptcy from a rare occurrence to a routine event lenders lost about 39 billion in 1998 due to personal bankruptcy filings but economists have little understanding of why households file for bankruptcy or why filings have increased so rapidly until very recently studying the household bankruptcy decision was very difficult because no household level data set existed that included information on bankruptcy filings in this paper we use new data from the panel study of income dynamics which includes information on bankruptcy filings to estimate a model of households bankruptcy decisions we find support for the strategic model of bankruptcy which predicts that households are more likely to file when their financial benefit from filing is higher our model predicts that an increase of 1 000 in households financial benefit from bankruptcy would result in a 7 percent increase in the number of bankruptcy filings our model also predicts that if the 1997 national bankruptcy review commission s proposed changes in bankruptcy exemption levels were implemented there would be a 16 percent increase in the number of bankruptcy filings each year but if the 100 000 cap on homestead exemptions recently passed by the u s senate were adopted our model predicts that there would be only a negligible effect on the number of filings we find little support for the nonstrategic model of bankruptcy which predicts that households file when adverse events occur which reduce their ability to repay finally controlling for state and time fixed effects our model shows that households are more likely to file for bankruptcy if they live in districts with higher aggregate filing rates

personal bankruptcy law debt portfolios and entrepreneurship bankruptcy provides entrepreneurs with insurance against the financial consequences of failure at the cost of worsened credit conditions using a quantitative general equilibrium model of entrepreneurship we show that the presence of secured credit in addition to unsecured credit substantially alters this trade off if secured credit is not available the optimal bankruptcy law is harsh since the negative effect dominates if secured credit is available the optimal law is lenient since entrepreneurs rationed out of the unsecured credit market can still obtain secured credit lowering the costs of worse credit conditions we find significant welfare gains from reforming the law

do stated preference methods stand the test of time a test of the stability of contingent values and models for health risks when facing an extreme event abstract this paper focuses on the temporal stability of dichotomous choice dc contingent values and models and the implication of time related aspects for benefits transfer as a viable valuation method from a practical point of view time plays an important role in benefits transfer results are used from studies often carried out years ago and the obvious question is to what extent the estimated values and models stand the test of time in the case of value function transfer this implies testing the robustness of the estimated coefficient estimates over time the novelty of the temporal stability work presented here is that two identical dc contingent valuation cv studies of the health risks associated with bathing water quality were carried out before and during extreme weather conditions causing the closure of bathing locations for public health reasons differences in contingent values and models before and during the extreme event are tested the extreme event causes the seasonal good in question to become temporarily scarcer and marginal wtp is therefore expected to be higher during the extreme event than before but not that underlying preferences have changed hence basically two things are tested the effect of time on stated preferences for a seasonal good and the effect of the extreme event on these preferences wtp values before and during the event appear to be robust also when accounting for substitution effects the results before and during the extreme event remain transferable when accounting for theoretically expected factors in a simple multivariate transfer model however when introducing additional and contextual ad hoc factors in the model the estimated models and their random components become significantly different and hence not transferable suggesting that unobserved preferences may not have been randomly distributed across the two surveys after all

consumption and risk sharing over the life cycle a striking feature of u s data on income and consumption is that inequality increases with age this paper asks if individual specific earnings risk can provide a coherent explanation we find that it can we construct an overlapping generations general equilibrium model in which households face uninsurable earnings shocks over the course of their lifetimes earnings inequality is exogenous and is calibrated to match data from the u s panel study on income dynamics consumption inequality is endogenous and matches well data from the u s consumer expenditure survey the total risk households face is decomposed into that realized before entering the labor market and that realized throughout the working years in welfare terms the latter is found to be more important than the former

u s consumer bankruptcy choice the importance of general equilibrium effects abstract we study the implications of u s personal bankruptcy rules for resource allocation and welfare our analysis shows that general equilibrium considerations along with bankruptcy chapter choice and production matter crucially for the effects of policy reform contrary to previous work we find that completely eliminating bankruptcy provisions causes significant declines in output and welfare by reducing capital formation and labor input furthermore subjecting chapter 7 filers to means testing as suggested by recent legislative proposals would not improve upon current bankruptcy provisions and at best leave aggregate filings output and welfare unchanged however we do find that an alternative tightening of chapter 7 in the form of lower asset exemptions can increase economic efficiency

default insurance and debt over the life cycle abstract the widespread use of debt and default suggests that unsecured credit markets play an important role in consumption smoothing in this paper i address two previously unanswered questions first how does policy towards debt default affect the evolution of consumption and net worth over the life cycle second how does debt default policy interact with social insurance over the life cycle the findings are as follows first us default policy appears lax in the sense that it creates severe credit constraints especially for the young second eliminating default will lower consumption inequality among the young but will increase it among the old third social insurance alters default risk and in turn loan pricing and therefore matters for purely intertemporal smoothing

fresh start or head start uniform bankruptcy exemptions and welfare abstract the 1990s witnessed a historically unprecedented number of personal bankruptcy filings in response congressional debate over bankruptcy law has recently led to several proposals aimed at making it more difficult to exempt wealth in a bankruptcy in this paper i evaluate uniform exemption policy primarily within the context of the recent congressional proposal h r 975 i develop an incomplete markets model where secured and unsecured assets coexist and are treated differentially in a bankruptcy proceeding i find that exemptions are associated positively with filing rates equity holdings in bankruptcy and welfare i find however that exemptions are strongly negatively associated with the availability of unsecured credit nonetheless the welfare effects of exemptions result from changes in borrowing costs changes in an implicit tax on self insurance and most crucially changes in the level of state contingency provided by unsecured debt as a quantitative matter these effects are resolved in a favor of a minor but positive role for exemptions

welfare implications of endogenous credit limits with bankruptcy this paper studies the aggregate welfare consequences of changes in the prescribed penalty for personal bankruptcy and in social insurance policies when borrowing limits may respond to these changes it uses a dynamic general equilibrium model of an exchange economy with incomplete markets and a continuum of agents the borrowing constraint and the risk of default are endogenous and the default penalty restricts an individual s access to the markets for a fixed period of time the effect on the stationary equilibrium of an exogenous reduction of 1 and 2 years in this exclusion period is explored quantitatively for comparison purposes the same experiment is carried out under the assumption made in related studies that the borrowing limit is fixed a small welfare loss follows in either case in contrast in a small open economy welfare may increase substantially but only if the borrowing constraint is endogenous similar results follow from an exogenous change in social policy that reduces individual income variability