the value priority hypotheses for consumer budget plans based on the behavioral sciences and mathematical programming we hypothesize that consumers rank durables by a value or net value priority approximated by utility per dollar or utility minus price and plan to choose items in that order up to a budget cutoff this paper derives these hypotheses and develops a convergent linear programming procedure to estimate utility using primary field data on reservation prices purchase probabilities lottery orders and combination prizes we estimate utilities and compare the hypotheses to 215 actual budget plans lisrel v analysis provides further support for the hypotheses

the boundaries of loss aversion abstract in this article the authors propose some psychological principles to describe the boundaries of loss aversion a key idea is that exchange goods that are given up as intended do not exhibit loss aversion for example the authors propose that money given up in purchases is not generally subject to loss aversion the results of several experiments provide preliminary support for the hypotheses the authors find that consistent with prospect theory loss aversion provides a complete account of risk aversion for risks with equal probability to win or lose the authors propose boundaries for this result and suggest further tests of the model

measuring heterogeneous reservation prices for product bundles this paper develops a model for capturing continuous heterogeneity in the joint distribution of reservation prices for products and bundles our model is derived from utility theory and captures both within and among subject variability furthermore it provides dollarmetric reservation prices and individual level estimates that allow the firm to target customers and develop customized and nonlinear pricing policies our experiments show that regardless of whether the products are durables or nondurables the model captures heterogeneity and predicts well models that assume homogeneity perform poorly especially in predicting choice of the bundle furthermore the methodology is robust even when respondents evaluate few profiles self stated reservation prices do not have any informational content beyond that contained in the basic model the direct elicitation method appears to understate overstate the variation in reservation prices across consumers for low priced high priced products and bundles hence this method yields biased demand estimates and leads to suboptimal product line pricing policy the optimization results show that the product line pricing policy depends on the degree of heterogeneity in the reservation prices of the individual products and the bundle a uniformly high price strategy for all products and bundles is optimal when heterogeneity is high otherwise a hybrid strategy is optimal

promotion signal proxy for a price cut evidence suggests that some consumers react to promotion signals without considering relative price information we adopt petty and cacioppo s elaboration likelihood model elm to explain this behavior in terms of the elm s peripheral route to persuasion in which the promotion signal is taken as a cue for a price cut experimental results show that low need for cognition individuals react to the simple presence of a promotion signal whether or not the price of the promoted brand is reduced but that high need for cognition individuals react to a promotion signal only when it is accompanied by a substantive price reduction

consumer information search revisited theory and empirical analysis a comprehensive theoretical framework for understanding consumers information search behavior is presented unlike previous research our model identifies not only what factors affect consumers search behavior but also how these factors interact with each other in particular the model emphasizes the effect of prior brand perceptions on the search process we argue that when consumers have brand specific prior distributions of utility the existence of relative uncertainty among brands is necessary for search to be useful thus we explain why product class involvement or low search costs may not be sufficient to induce large amounts of search activity and why there may be an inverted u shaped relationship between search activity and experience we test our theory on consumers search behavior for new automobiles using data collected contemporaneously with consumers actual decision process our data support our theory

cost benefit models for explaining consumer choice and information seeking behavior while it provides excellent descriptions of behavior existing consumer research on information seeking and processing largely fails to explain why consumers engage in various types of activities this paper presents an economic framework for measuring costs benefits of search behavior which can help to resolve these questions this work shows how such a framework can lead to testable hypotheses about information seeking and discusses how operational measures of economic incentives to search can be developed and employed

independent private value auctions bidder behaviour in first second and third price auctions with varying numbers of bidders the symmetric equilibrium of third price auctions is characterized it makes a number of contrasting predictions relative to firms and second price auctions bids exceed private values the marginal effects on bids of an increase in private values is greater than one increasing numbers of bidders reduces bids and risk aversion requires bidding below the risk neutral nash equilibrium in the experiment bidders do not always satisfy the point predictions of the theory however the game theoretic models correctly anticipate at least directionally the important effects of the price rule changes copyright 1993 by royal economic society

experimental economics comment in two important studies charles plott 1982 and vernon smith 1982 assess the current state of the literature about laboratory experiments in economics as a profession we are becoming aware that experimental methods can be applied to our models with cautious but growing confidence that these procedures can help us evaluate alternative theories these are significant developments whose potential ramifications are only beginning to be explored given the importance of laboratory testing i would like to discuss a key feature of past experiments one that has not been fully appreciated because of its central role in standard economic theory in particular these experiments depend on inducing agents to respond according to a prespecified value structure this usually amounts to starting with a known and fully determinate set of demand and supply value schedules for all transacting agents smith for example specifies four major principles about how preferences are to be experimentally induced nonsatiation saliency dominance and privacy see pp 931 35

reservation price as a range an incentive compatible measurement approach abstract drawing from the literature on buyers uncertainty in preference and product knowledge the authors suggest and empirically test the proposition that a consumer s reservation price for a product is more meaningfully and accurately represented as a range than as a single point given this conceptualization they propose an approach for incentive compatible elicitation of a consumer s reservation price range icerange that builds on becker degroot and marschak s 1964 point of purchase method two empirical applications of the approach provide an assessment of its practicality and its predictive performance relative to current methodologies for reservation price elicitation the results demonstrate that the proposed method significantly outperforms the benchmark approaches in terms of predictive validity and yields valuable incremental information about uncertainty in product valuation

are choice experiments incentive compatible a test with quality differentiated beef steaks this study compares hypothetical and nonhypothetical responses to choice experiment questions we test for hypothetical bias in a choice experiment involving beef ribeye steaks with differing quality attributes in general hypothetical responses predicted higher probabilities of purchasing beef steaks than nonhypothetical responses thus hypothetical choices overestimate total willingness to pay for beef steaks however marginal willingness to pay for a change in steak quality is in general not statistically different across hypothetical and actual payment settings

augmenting conjoint analysis to estimate consumer reservation price consumer reservation price is a key concept in marketing and economics theoretically this concept has been instrumental in studying consumer purchase decisions competitive pricing strategies and welfare economics managerially knowledge of consumer reservation prices is critical for implementing many pricing tactics such as bundling tar get promotions nonlinear pricing and one to one pricing and for assessing the impact of marketing strategy on demand despite the practical and theoretical importance of this concept its measurement at the individual level in a practical setting proves elusive we propose a conjoint based approach to estimate consumer level reservation prices this approach integrates the preference estimation of traditional conjoint with the economic theory of consumer choice this integration augments the capability of traditional conjoint such that consumers reservation prices for a product can be derived directly from the individuallevel estimates of conjoint coefficients with this augmentation we can model a consumer s decision of not only which product to buy but also whether to buy at all in a category thus we can simulate simultaneously three effects that a change in price or the introduction of a new product may generate in a market the customer switching effect the cannibalization effect and the market expansion effect we show in a pilot application how this approach can aid product and pricing decisions we also demonstrate the predictive validity of our approach using data from a commercial study of automobile batteries

5 information impact and allocation rules in auctions with affiliated private values a laboratory study in affiliated private value auctions each bidder has perfect information regarding his her own value for the object at auction but higher values of the item for one bidder make higher values for other bidders more likely we report on a series of experiments examining three key implications of these auctions i in a first price auction public information about rivals values increases expected revenue ii an english auction increases expected revenue compared to a first price auction and iii a second price auction is isomorphic to an english auction in examining these issues we compare predictions of some ad hoc bidding models with nash equilibrium predictions in the first price auction experiments nash equilibrium bidding theory organizes the data better than either of two ad hoc bidding models public information about others valuations does increase average revenue but the increase in revenue is smaller and less reliable than predicted under risk neutral nash equilibrium bidding lower average revenue might be attributed to risk aversion while the high variability is attributed to a sizable frequency of individual bidding errors relative to the theory bidding theory precisely organizes english auction outcomes after a brief initial learning period the dominant strategy equilibrium does not organize second price auctions nearly as well as market prices persistently exceed predicted prices the difference between english and second price outcomes is attributed to effects of different information flows inherent in the structure of the two institutions on eliminating bidding errors revenue impacts of these two institutions relative to a first price auction are examined in light of observed bidding patterns

buyer uncertainty and information search preliminary measures of pre purchase uncertainty were developed through focus group interviews and were administered to a nationwide sample of recent appliance purchasers responses indicated the presence of two general types of uncertainty knowledge uncertainty uncertainty regarding information about alternatives and choice uncertainty uncertainty about which alternative to choose in exploring how each of these uncertainty dimensions was related to search behavior we found that choice uncertainty appeared to increase search but knowledge uncertainty had a weaker negative effect on search implications of the findings for previous research on the relationship between uncertainty and search are discussed along with research directions

a reservation price model for optimal pricing of multiattribute products in conjoint analysis a significant application of conjoint analysis is in pricing decisions for new products conceptually profit maximization is an important criterion for selecting the price of a product however t

hedonic price functions and the measurement of preferences the case of swedish wine consumers abstract a hedonic price function for wine is estimated using swedish data 1989 1991 implicit prices for quality attributes are determined not from a regression of variety price on a vector of quality attributes but rather from a regression of quantity sold adjusted for weeks of availability on price and quality attributes such a reduced form is justified by the assumption that prices and attribute contents can be taken as exogenous to the swedish consumer price elasticity is estimated to be about 1 65 holding quality constant showing that swedish consumers are highly sensitive to price estimates of the implicit valuations of quality attributes are shown to differ greatly from those obtained from the more usual hedonic regression with price as the dependent variable

price as a stimulus to think the case for willful overpricing consumers aware of a new benefit will often experience uncertainty about its personal relevance or usage value this paper shows that the decision to deliberate further to resolve this uncertainty and reach a polarized judgment of personal relevance critically depends on the posted price in particular a price above the consumer s initial willingness to pay might be thought provoking and enhance the perception of relevance with a certain probability this behavioral mechanism is introduced formally and by way of an experiment with reference to the purchase of organic lettuce and fair trade coffee accounting for the effect of price as a stimulus to think a monopolistic firm should either over price transgressive pricing or under price regressive pricing in comparison to the consumer s willingness to pay under certain circumstances the firm should also empower consumers with means that reduce the effort of deliberation

money demand in the dominican republic this paper investigates a demand for money relationship for the dominican republic the financial system of the dominican republic is underdeveloped and there are no suitable domestic data on the opportunity cost of holding money economic links with the usa suggest a possible role for a foreign interest rate effect and a currency substitution effect in the demand for domestic money a long run demand for money relationship is developed from the perspective of alternative estimation methodologies and it is shown that a literature standard specification augmented by foreign monetary variables is robust the ensuing short run dynamic model is adequate stable and suggests an important role for expected inflation and a real bilateral exchange rate with the usa a number of policy implications for the dominican republic are drawn from the results

hypothetical bias and willingness to accept abstract we design and implement simple laboratory experiments to measure the bias in willingness to pay settings once identified this bias can be corrected or compared to the bias found in comparable willingness to pay settings

measuring consumers willingness to pay at the point of purchase abstract economists psychologists and marketing researchers rely on measures of consumers willingness to pay wtp in estimating demand for private and public goods and in designing optimal price schedules existing market research techniques for measuring wtp differ in whether they provide an incentive to consumers to reveal their true wtp and in whether they simulate actual point of purchase contexts the authors present an empirical comparison of several procedures for eliciting wtp that are applicable directly at the point of purchase in particular the authors test the applicability of becker degroot and marschak s 1964 well known incentive compatible procedure for assessing the utility of lotteries to measuring consumers wtp in three studies the authors explore the reliability validity and feasibility of the procedure and show that it yields lower wtp estimates than do non incentive compatible methods such as open ended and double bounded contingent valuation they show experimentally t

household portfolio diversification a case for rank dependent preferences the proliferation of novel preference theories in financial economics is hampered by a lack of non experimental evidence and by the theories additional complexity which has not been shown to be critical in applications in this article i present arguments in support of preferences with rank dependency using the survey of consumer finances data i document two widespread patterns inconsistent with expected utility i many households simultaneously invest in well deversified funds and in poorly diversified portfolios of stocks and ii some households with substantial savings do not invest anything in equities i show that portfolio choice models with rank dependent preferences plausibly parameterized and under fully rational assumptions are quantitatively consistent with the observed diversification these results call for further efforts to integrate the models of rank dependent preferences in portfolio theory and asset pricing the decision theoretic literature has long acknowledged the shortcomings of the expected utility theory of von neumann and morgenstern 1944 several generalizations of the theory are inspired by the experimental evidence and aimed at improving its descriptive accuracy however there are few applications of new models of preferences in finance and expected utility continues to dominate the field 1 two principal hurdles slow the proliferation of novel preferences in financial economics first the lack of empirical non experimental or field data confirming that the behavior motivating non expected utilities is widespread outside the laboratory settings second the additional and often significant complexity of the alternative preferences which has not been shown to be critical in applications where the models based on expected utility fall short of reasonable predictions this article presents empirical and theoretical this paper was previously circulated under the title household portfolio diversification the paper has benefited from the comments of shlomo benartzi luca benzoni markus brunnermeier john dickhaut maria perozek raj singh hersh shefrin and workshop participants at minnesota finance bag lunch 2003 wharton conference household financial decision making and portfolio choice and 2003 summer meetings of econometric society i would like to thank cam harvey the editor and an anonymous referee for many helpful comments and suggestions a special thanks to jack kareken for comments and editorial help on an earlier draft i am grateful to donna zerwitz for editorial assistance the views expressed herein are those of the author and not necessarily of the federal reserve bank of minneapolis or the federal reserve system all errors and omissions are the sole responsibility of the author address correspondence to valery polkovnichenko finance 3 122 csom 319 19 th

discrete choice under preference uncertainty an improved structural model for contingent valuation abstract this paper is concerned with discrete choice contingent value estimation in the presence of response errors we attempt to extend the theoretical frameworks developed by hanemann 1984 amer j agric econom 66 332 341 and cameron 1988 j environ econom management 15 355 379 by introducing preference uncertainty with individual respondents we assume that respondents have incomplete knowledge about their true valuation of a nonmarket resource and thus may give wrong yes no answers on whether or not to pay a given bid amount for the resource a post decisional confidence measure for each observed yes no answer is elicited for characterizing the degree of preference uncertainty with the help of this confidence measure we develop an improved structural model for deriving value estimates data from a forest environment valuation survey are used for the empirical estimations

a conjoint model of quantity discounts quantity discount pricing is a common practice used by business to business and business to consumer companies a key characteristic of quantity discount pricing is that the marginal price declines with higher purchase quantities in this paper we propose a choice based conjoint model for estimating consumer level willingness to pay wtp for varying quantities of a product and for designing optimal quantity discount pricing schemes our model can handle large quantity values and produces wtp estimates that are positive and increasing in quantity at a diminishing rate in particular we propose a tractable wtp function that depends on both product attributes and product quantity and that captures diminishing marginal wtp we show how such a function embeds standard wtp functions in the quantity discount literature as special cases we also demonstrate how to use the model to estimate the consumer value potential which is the product of the premium a consumer is willing to pay and her volume potential finally we propose a parsimonious experimental design approach for implementation we illustrate the model using data from a conjoint study of online movie rental services the empirical results show that the proposed model has good fit and predictive validity in addition we find that marginal wtp in this category decays rapidly with quantity we also find that the standard choice based conjoint model results in anomalous wtp distributions with negative wtp values and nondiminishing marginal willingness to pay curves finally we identify four segments of consumers that differ in terms of magnitude of wtp and volume potential and we derive optimal quantity discount schemes for a monopolist and a new entrant in a competitive market

using laboratory experimental auctions in marketing research a case study of new packaging for fresh beef this paper illustrates the use of laboratory experimental auctions in a pretest market research program for new products we review the experimental auctions literature discuss the range of auction mechanisms available and present the advantages and disadvantages of using a particular mechanism for a laboratory pretest market we then present a step by step example of how a theoretically incentive compatible auction mechanism fifth price sealed bid was used in a laboratory pretest market for vacuum packaged beef based on the illustration we discuss the potential for using laboratory experimental auctions in pretest market research we present the limitations that may be encountered in such applications and outline research aimed at improving the behavioral properties of the technique

personalized pricing and quality differentiation we develop an analytical framework to investigate the competitive implications of personalized pricing pp whereby firms charge different prices to different consumers based on their willingness to pay we embed pp in a model of vertical product differentiation and show how it affects firms choices over quality we show that firms optimal pricing strategies with pp may be nonmonotonic in consumer valuations when the pp firm has high quality both firms raise their qualities relative to the uniform pricing case conversely when the pp firm has low quality both firms lower their qualities although many firms are trying to implement such pricing policies we find that a higher quality firm can actually be worse off with pp while it is optimal for the firm adopting pp to increase product differentiation the non pp firm seeks to reduce differentiation by moving in closer in the quality space while pp results in a wider market coverage it also leads to aggravated price competition between firms because this entails a change in equilibrium qualities the nature of the cost function determines whether firms gain or lose by implementing such pp policies despite the threat of first degree price discrimination we find that pp with competing firms can lead to an overall increase in consumer welfare

imprecise preferences and survey design in contingent valuation during recent years the contingent valuation cv method has been widely used to value non marketed goods and services we present the results of a cv study of the value of road safety we find that stated preferences for road safety exhibit considerable imprecision appear subject to various systematic biases and are insensitive to variations in the quantity and quality of the safety improvements concerned one broad implication of these findings may be that for an important class of goods of which safety is one example standard assumptions about the structure of people s preferences may be much too strong a more specific implication concerning the design and conduct of cv surveys is that the noaa panel s widely cited blueprint for good cv practice may rely far too heavily on assumptions about the precision and sensitivity of people s preferences

coherent arbitrariness stable demand curves without stable preferences economic theories of valuation generally assume that prices of commodities and assets are derived from underlying fundamental values for example in finance theory asset prices are believed to reflect the market estimate of the discounted present value of the asset s payoff stream in labor theory the supply of labor is established by the tradeoff between the desire for consumption and the displeasure of work finally and most importantly for this chapter consumer microeconomics assumes that the demand curves for consumer products chocolates cds movies vacations drugs and so forth can be ultimately traced to the valuation of pleasures that consumers anticipate receiving from these products because it is difficult as a rule to measure fundamental values directly empirical tests of economic theory typically examine whether the effects of changes in circumstances on valuations are consistent with theoretical prediction for example whether labor supply responds appropriately to a change in the wage rate whether compensated demand curves for commodities are downward sloping or whether stock prices respond in the predicted way to share repurchases however such comparative static relationships are a necessary but not sufficient condition for fundamental valuation e g summers 1986 becker 1962 was perhaps the first to make this point explicitly when he observed that consumers choosing commodity bundles randomly from their budget set would nevertheless produce downward sloping demand curves

a general choice model for bundles with multiple category products application to market segmentation and optimal pricing for bundles abstract the attribute based approach to study customer choices cannot deal with bundles of heterogeneous components which are usually drawn from different product categories the authors develop the comparability based balance model which is a unified framework for modeling bundle choices the model can be employed for any bundle regardless of the heterogeneity of bundle components under a pure bundling strategy the conjoint model and balance model are special cases of the general model the authors use mixture distributions in a hierarchical bayesian framework to incorporate consumer heterogeneity in a more flexible manner than the extant approaches such as latent class and random coefficient models the empirical tests of the model show that most attribute effects are significant and consistent with the model s predictions the model is superior to those that do not consider the issues of comparability of attributes latent class structure and heterogeneity among respondents the authors show how