time orientation and asset prices we analyze a general equilibrium asset pricing model where a small subset of the consumers investors have a short run urge to save that is their attitude toward consumption in the long run is a standard one f they do place zero weight on consumption far enough out in the future f but their short run effective rates of discount may be negative our model which is an elaboration on the framework proposed by faruk gul and wolfgang pesendorfer does not feature time inconsistencies thus we view consumers as fully rational but subject to specific internal frictions in the form of temptation and self control problems the model nests the mehra prescott model and we use it as a way of interpreting the wealth and asset pricing data some aspects of these data we argue can possibly be better understood using our model than the standard one r 2002 published by elsevier science b v

anticipating regret why fewer options may be better we study preferences over menus which can be represented as if the agent selects an alternative from a menu and experiences regret if her choice is ex post inferior since regret arises from comparisons between the alternative selected and the other available alternatives our axioms reflect the agent s desire to limit her options we prove that our representation is essentially unique we also introduce two measures of comparative regret attitudes and relate them to our representation finally we explore the formal connection between the present work and the literature on temptation

global feminization through flexible labor abstract the emphasis on structural adjustment and labor flexibility in both developing and industrialized economies is rapidly altering the nature of employment women are being substituted for men and many forms of work are being converted into the kinds of jobs traditionally geared to women international data on recent trends in female economic activity reveal that new types of labor data are needed to highlight the mechanisms of control over workers and the actual economic forms of vulnerability to which women are exposed the paper concludes by posing questions that challenge the traditional concerns of donors and policy makers in many developing countries

temptation and commitment in the laboratory temptation and self control in intertemporal choice environments are receiving increasing attention in the theoretical economics literature nevertheless there remains a scarcity of empirical evidence from controlled environments informing behavior under repeated temptations this is unfortunate in light of the fact that in many natural environments the same temptation must be repeatedly resisted this paper fills that gap by reporting data from a novel laboratory study of economic decisions under repeat temptations subjects are repeatedly offered an option with instantaneous benefit that also entails a substantial reduction to overall earnings we show that this option is tempting in the sense that a substantial fraction of our subjects incur pecuniary costs to eliminate the choice and thus commit to not choosing the tempting alternative we compare the timing and price elasticity of these commitment decisions to predictions from existing theoretical models of decision under temptation our data are broadly consistent with theory with the notable exception that commitment often occurs with delay rather than at the first opportunity moreover the timing of commitment is significantly impacted by the cost of the commitment device the patterns we report have direct implications for economic theory and are a first step toward designing mechanisms that promote prudent economic decisions under temptation

alleviating rural poverty through agricultural growth the article examines the role of agricultural gdp growth in alleviating rural poverty in ldcs cross sectional regression analysis indicates that gdp growth by itself takes a very long time to reduce poverty significantly it suggests that decreases in land concentration could have a more immediate impact on reducing rural poverty the budgetary and other costs of implementing such changes are not however considered the preferred approach is a combination of equitable growth and redistributive measures

land contingent poverty alleviation schemes abstract target groups for rural poverty alleviation schemes in south asia and elsewhere have often been identified in terms of their landholding class with landless or near landless households being the intended beneficiaries this paper offers a quantitative approach to the analysis and design of land contingent poverty alleviation schemes an application to bangladesh suggests that when income is generally unobserved landholding class is a good instrument for targeting poverty relief in that it is strongly correlated with the informationally feasible allocations which minimize aggregate poverty for a given budget it is however far from being a perfect instrument even under otherwise ideal conditions the maximum feasible reduction in poverty which is attainable by relying solely on land based targeting is substantially less than that attainable with perfect income information indeed the poverty alleviation impact of domestically financed and revenue neutral transfers across 10 landholding classes in rural bangladesh could also be achieved without targeting by simply giving every household a lump sum payment equivalent to 10 of mean rural income political restrictions on tax powers or errors made in administration will further reduce the gains from land contingent targeting greater impact on poverty for a given budgetary cost will require more precise targeting within landholding classes

timing and self control the dual self model of self control with one period lived short run selves is excessively sensitive to the timing of shocks and to the interpolation of additional no action time periods in between the dates when decisions are made we show that when short run selves have a random length of time this excess sensitivity goes away we consider both linear and convex cost of self control models illustrating the theory through a series of examples we examine when opportunities to consume will be avoided or delayed we consider the way in which the marginal interest declines with delay and we examine how preference reversals depend on the timing of information to accommodate the combination of short time periods and convex costs of self control we extend the model to treat willpower as a cognitive resource that is limited in the short run

on the long run outcome of the lewis nurkse international growth process abstract this essay formalizes the model of international growth advanced by w arthur lewis in his 1979 nobel prize address and by ragnar nurkse in the 1950 s both of them employed the model to support their respective cases for pursuit of a balanced growth strategy by the ldc s the purpose of the formalization undertaken here is to examine the theoretical consequences for the secular ratio of ldc to mdc incomes as the lewis nurkse growth process unfolds the paper explores whether or not growth in lewis nurkse fashion must mean persistent poverty for the ldc s in addition the formalization provides an explicit characterization of economic dependence

gender inequality and economic growth a cross country analysis abstract this paper investigates empirically the determinants of economic growth for a set of semi industrialized export oriented economies in which women provide the bulk of labor in the export sector the primary hypothesis tested is that gender inequality which contributes to women s relatively lower wages was a stimulus to growth via the effect on exports during 1975 95 empirical analysis shows that gdp growth is positively related to gender wage inequality in contrast to recent work which suggests that income inequality slows growth evidence also indicates that part of the impact of gender wage inequality on growth is transmitted through its positive effect on investment as a share of gdp

a theory of rational addiction we develop a theory of rational addiction in which rationality means a consistent plan to maximize utility over time strong addiction to a good requires a big effect of past consumption of the good on current consumption such powerful complementarities cause some steady states to be unstable they are an important part of our analysis because even small deviations from the consumption at an unstable steady state can lead to large cumulative rises over time in addictive consumption or to rapid falls in consumption to abstention our theory also implies that cold turkey is used to end strong addictions that addicts often go on binges that addicts respond more to permanent than to temporary changes in prices of addictive goods and that anxiety and tensions can precipitate an addiction

a reinterpretation of the modern theory of forward exchange rates the modern theory of forward exchange rate determination mt has been widely although not unanimously accepted as an improvement over the traditional interest rate panty theory irpi the latter theory contends that in equilibruim the forward rate f will equal except for transactions costs the interest panty forward rate f 1 covered interest arbitrage cia is a pnmary but as shall be seen not the only force insunng this equilibnum condition for the forward market for example if f exceeds f then covenng arbitrageurs borrow or forego lending in the domestic country purchase the foreign currency on the spot market lend abroad at the foreign interest rate and simultaneously sell the foreign currency including interest on the forward market these transactions cause f to decline and or f to increase until equilibnum is restored motivated in part by early empincal studies of the irpi which found evidence of apparent deviations of f from f and by the intuitively appealing argument that expectations or speculation can also influence f the mt suggests that the equilibrium forward rate is better explained as a weighted average of f and the expected

procrastination and obedience in this lecture i shall focus on situations involving repeated decisions with time inconsistent behavior although each choice may be close to maximizing and therefore result in only small losses the cumulative effect of a series of repeated errors may be quite large thus in my examples decision makers are quite close to the intelligent well informed individuals usually assumed in economic analysis but cumulatively they make seriously wrong decisions that do not occur in standard textbook economics this lecture discusses and illustrates several pathological modes of individual and group behavior procrastination in decision making undue obedience to authority membership of seemingly normal individuals in deviant cult groups and escalation of commitment to courses of action that are clearly unwise in each case individuals choose a series of current actions without fully appreciating how those actions will affect future perceptions and behavior the standard assumption of rational forwardlooking utility maximizing is violated the nonindependence of errors in decision making in the series of decisions can be explained with the concept from cognitive psychology of undue salience or vividness for example present benefits and costs may have undue salience relative to future costs

spot versus forward speculation and hedging a diagrammatic exposition abstract it has recently been recognized that the controversial implication of the modern theory of forward exchange that the forward rate can differ from the rate required for interest parity no longer holds when speculators are allowed to choose between spot and forward speculation this paper shows this result within the diagrammatic apparatus usually used to describe the modern theory the paper also shows the effect of importers and exporters choosing between spot and forward hedging it is observed that when either speculators or traders can choose between money market and forward speculation hedging forward rates equal interest parity rates the diagram can be adapted to consider borrowing lending spreads etc

commitment and self control abstract the literature on self control problems has typically concentrated on immediate temptations this paper studies a gul and pesendorfer temptation and self control econometrica 69 2001 1403 1435 self control and the theory of consumption econometrica 72 2004 119 158 style model in which decision makers are affected by temptations that lie in the future while temptation is commonly understood to give rise to a demand for commitment it is shown that temptation by future consumption can induce its absence the model also exhibits procrastination provides an alternative to projection bias as an explanation for some experimental results and can simultaneously account for myopic and hyperopic behavior the evidence on preference reversals supports temptation by future consumption and suggests that it may not be restricted to short time horizons

export orientation and female share of employment evidence from turkey abstract we investigate the relationship between export orientation and female share of employment in the turkish manufacturing sector during 1983 85 following the onset of export led industrialization policies using plant level data we find that female share of employment in a plant increases with the export to total output ratio of its sector the contribution of the study to the literature is its use of plant level data for a large number of plants enabling us to control for other determinants of female share of employment such as workers skill composition at the plant level

self control for the righteous toward a theory of precommitment to indulgence prior research has examined consumers use of self control to avoid hedonic myopic temptations such as overspending and smoking in this research we investigate the opposite form of self control whereby consumers force themselves to indulge and avoid default forms of spending on utilitarian necessities and or savings in particular consumers who have difficulty choosing items that are perceived as indulgences or luxuries e g a cruise over necessities e g saving for college education and cash in everyday decisions may use precommitments to indulgence especially when the psychological cost of such commitments is less concrete these propositions were tested in a series of studies involving real and hypothetical choices as well as process measures the results indicate that a substantial segment of consumers choose hedonic luxury rewards over cash of equal or greater value consumers typically explain such choices based on the need to precommit to indulgence to make sure that the award does no

learning self control this article examines how a decision maker who is only partially aware of his temptations learns about them over time in facing temptations individuals use their experience to forecast future self control problems and choose the appropriate level of commitment i demonstrate that rational learning can be perpetually partial and need not result in full sophistication the main result of this article characterizes necessary and sufficient conditions for learning to converge to full sophistication i apply this result to a consumption savings environment in which a decision maker is tempted by present bias and establish a learning theoretic justification for assuming sophistication in this setting an individual who finds himself continuously repudiating his past plans may learn to distrust his future behavior and may do something about it strotz 1955

feminization of the labor force the effects of long term development and structural adjustment abstract using crosscountry data pooled for 1985 and 1990 we analyze the relationship between women s share of the labor force and the processes of long term economic development and macroeconomic changes associated with structural adjustment we find that the relationship between long term development and women s share of the labor force is u shaped controlling for the feminization u we also find that structural adjustment policies have led to an increase in feminization of the labor force via worsening income distribution and increased openness

choice and procrastination author s o donoghue ted rabin matthew abstract recent models of procrastination due to self control problems assume that a procrastinator considers just one option and is unaware of her self control problems we develop a model where a person chooses from a menu of options and is partially aware of her self control problems this menu model replicates earlier results and generates new ones a person might forego completing an attractive option because she plans to complete a more attractive but never to be completed option hence providing a non procrastinator additional options can induce procrastination and a person may procrastinate worse pursuing important goals than unimportant ones

the life cycle model of consumption and saving a central implication of life cycle models is that agents smooth consumption we review the empirical evidence on smoothing at frequencies from within the year up to across a lifetime we find that life cycle models particular those which incorporate realistic features of markets and goods have more empirical successes than failures we also show that some apparent deviations from theoretical predictions imply very small welfare losses for agents finally we emphasize that the coherence of life cycle models imposes an important discipline when incorporating new features into models

women work and weil being in the middle east an outline of the relevant literature there is now an extensive literature on the role of women in economic development and the impact of development on their lives this article concentrates on the economic literature and discusses its importance for policies aimed at working women in the middle east it identifies the important strands and places the discussion within the wider context of women in the labour market in both developing and developed countries the general conclusion is that we are very far from having sufficient knowledge to implement effective policy or even to evaluate existing policies

self control and the theory of consumption to study the behavior of agents who are susceptible to temptation in infinite horizon consumption problems under uncertainty we define and characterize dynamic self control dsc preferences dsc preferences are recursive and separable in economies with dsc agents equilibria exist but may be inefficient in such equilibria steady state consumption is independent of initial endowments and increases in self control increasing the preference for commitment while keeping self control constant increases the equity premium removing nonbinding constraints changes equilibrium allocations and prices debt contracts can be sustained even if the only feasible punishment for default is the termination of the contract

industrialization and employment changes in the patterns of women s work in puerto rico abstract the debate on the impact of industrialization on female employment in developing countries has revolved around the issue of whether women are integrated into or marginalized from the labor market by industrialization this paper presents the results of an empirical study of the changes in the sectoral and occupational distribution of female employment in puerto rico during the period 1947 1982 the study divides the process of industrialization into two stages according to the type of industries promoted by the government development agency formento under the various industrial incentive laws enacted during this period changes in female employment by economic sector were assessed through a regression analysis while changes in occupation were assessed through the analysis of descriptive statistics the study found that while women s participation in the labor force grew the type of occupations they filled remained sex segregated with few exceptions integration into the labor force was thus associated with a new sexual division of labor and does not necessarily mean an improvement in the employment situation of women as the integration hypothesis proposes

a comparative study of national price levels agricultural prices and exchange rates abstract this paper attempts a comparison of national price levels agricultural prices and exchange rates across countries and over the years 1975 and 1980 using recently produced results from the united nations statistical office and the food and agriculture organization this paper suggests that in most developing countries official exchange rates are more overvalued relative to gdp based purchasing power parities ppps but less overvalued relative to agricultural output based ppps gdp based ppps in most developed countries are however closer to official exchange rates hence conventional opinion as to the existence of significantly lower agricultural output prices in most developing countries is not supported by this study at the same time protection afforded farmers in terms of higher agricultural output prices is indicated in many developed countries it is also observed that in asia agricultural output prices relative to nonagricultural prices have declined over the period 1975 1980 whereas the opposite trend seems to be the case in africa no distinct trend differences over the period are evident for the european experience however agricultural output prices in asia in 1980 were still higher than in africa a few policy implications of these observations are discussed briefly at the conclusion of the paper

macroeconomic consequences of cyclical and secular changes in feminization an experiment at gendered macromodeling abstract this paper analyzes the macroeconomic implications of cyclical and secular movements in the feminization of the labor force and changes in the intensity of female household labor we assume that a rise in the feminization of the labor force stimulates investment while a rise in the intensity of female household labor raises savings we examine the interaction of these two effects in the context of a dynamic keynesian growth cycle model and assess the likelihood of a structurally adjusting economy experiencing a recovery through feminization our analysis shows that for a gender based recovery to succeed the impact of feminization of the labor force on investment must be stronger than the impact a rising intensity of female household labor has on savings our analysis shows that high and high middleincome countries are more likely to benefit from feminization processes

secular changes in the gender composition of employment and growth dynamics in the north and the south abstract in a simple theoretical exercise the paper shows that gender relations matter in the standard analysis of trade liberalization and economic growth it utilizes a model with the two differential equations phase diagram technique which enables us to examine the cumulative interaction between economic growth and changes in the female share of employment the model shows that changes in the gender composition of employment caused by a new global division of labor between the north and the south can thwart the economic benefits customarily associated with trade liberalization in both regions