stabilization adjustment and the poor abstract this paper attempts to survey the recent literature on the impact of stabilization and adjustment programs upon the poor and to consider some of the key issues in the context of a particular equity oriented low income country tanzania after looking at some of the approaches of earlier studies this paper analyzes the effects of restructuring policies macroeconomic restraint and strategic policy change the author then reviews available evidence on the recent experience of tanzania with external shock efforts at stabilization and relations with the imf in conclusion the author argues that in order to better understand their impact on poverty we need more detailed analyses of specific countries experience with different kinds of macroeconomic imbalance and different short to medium term policy responses however he does indicate with some certainty that when equivalent external blows impact upon very low income countries there must be a presumption that other things being equal including the distribution of income the proportion of households and people pushed over the line into absolute poverty will be greater than in middle income countries the international community should provide external finance to aid these low income countries in limiting the negative impact on the poorest

entry into pharmaceutical submarkets a bayesian panel probit analysis summary we study entry into pharmaceutical submarkets by using a dynamic panel probit model we develop a bayesian version of wooldridge s approach to dealing with unobserved heterogeneity we distinguish between greenfield entry entry with first product and undifferentiated entry which may take the form of introducing further products we extend the standard reduced form model to consider company size in the submarket and across all submarkets we find that greenfield and undifferentiated entries have different determinants that global and submarket size measures have different effects and that sunk costs often have positive effects on entry due to a commitment mechanism copyright 2012 john wiley sons ltd

interfirm rivalry in a repeated game an empirical test of tacit collusion rivalry in the vancouver retail gasoline market is modeled as a repeated game service station demand cost and intertemporal reaction functions are estimated from daily data on individual station prices costs and sales these functions are then used to calculate noncooperative and cooperative solutions to the constitutent game and the actual outcome of the repeated game the actual outcome is found to be substantially less lucrative than the monopoly solution nevertheless all stations are better off than if they played their noncooperative strategies in every period copyright 1987 by blackwell publishing ltd

privatization in developing countries a review of the issues abstract the theory and early experience of privatization in developing countries are reviewed privatization has been spurred by widespread dissatisfaction with the performance of public enterprises and the need to cut government expenditures unless it is accompanied by liberalization measures privatization of public enterprises is unlikely to result in significant gains in economic efficiency the sequencing of privatization and liberalization reforms will often determine their impact on efficiency but the correct order of implementation is not clear political opposition to privatization is likely to be limited to the state bureaucracy which will often be able to mobilize in order to limit the impact of reforms early implementation experiences suggest technical difficulties are as constraining as political factors

on reform of the state and regulation of the market abstract this concluding paper reviews possible interrelationships between the economic and political dimensions of contemporary liberalizations in latin america and southern and eastern central europe after noting the absence of certain negative features impediments to a liberal economic and political order the paper proposes a more positive justification based on the examination of four possible interrelated linking mechanisms responses to chronic fiscal crisis the stabilization of popular expectations the strengthening of transparent and accountable institutions and external forms of reinforcement can all in principle contribute to the coordinated reinforcement of a more democratized state and a more liberalized market system without this implying a single uniform end result applicable to all situations this special issue has focused on some theoretical questions whether these possible linkages operate in practice requires empirical verification

explaining economic liberalization in india state and society perspectives abstract the economic reforms of 1991 carried out by the indian government were remarkable given the prevailing attitude among researchers that such reforms would be impossible to implement this article discusses the possible explanations for the initiation and consolidation of the reform process contrary to the prevailing explanations that focus on the state elite or pressures from the international economy this paper argues that the impetus came from a new breed of indian entrepreneurs

the politics of liberalizing zambia s maize markets abstract this paper discusses the process of agricultural liberalization in zambia the central argument is that maize markets have been more quickly and fully liberalized than maize input markets because the perceived political risks of liberalizing input markets are greater than those of liberalizing maize markets and because economic interest groups benefited from maize liberalization while similar interests benefited from continued government interventions in input markets these finding imply that in order to understand the prospects for economic liberalization in new democracies we must disaggregate both civil society and markets

a model of military spending and economic growth this paper investigates a model of militaryconflict between two regimes in which eachmay initiate combat in order to confiscateresources from the other conflict or thepotential for same results in wastefulmilitary spending which lowers growth foreach regime equilibrium military spendingis determined in a one shot game analysisof the one shot game is followed by a studyof the prospects for an equilibrium inwhich regimes lower military spending anddo not engage in combat in repeated play in this latter case military spending willbe decreased to a level just sufficient todeter deviations from the no combatequilibrium this minimum level increases and growth decreases with the internalpolitical instability of each regime moreover an exogenous increase in thedefensive capability of each regime mayeither increase or decrease growth depending upon the initial level ofmilitary spending and growth

a longitudinal study of the competitive positions and entry paths of european firms in the u s pharmaceutical market this paper combines the statistical insights of dynamic strategic group analysis with the qualitative richness of historical analysis to explore the modes of entry expansion paths and competitive postures of european firms in the u s pharmaceutical market patterns of entry and market development over a 20 year period are analyzed the roles of strategic assets and competencies in determining both the entry strategy and the final competitive posture of these firms in the u s market are discussed

political strength economic structure and the debt servicing potential of developing countries the developing countries need to reschedule their external debts is as much a consequence of the political weakness of their governments vis a vis their own societies and the international environment as it is a consequence of unfavorable structural changes in the international financial system this study s original contribution is to treat the differentials in the political strengths of debtor governments as explicit variables in analyzing the probability of ldcs having to reschedule their external debt rather than to treat political factors as residuals to an economic explanation a measure of a government s political strength relative political capacity rpc is used to evaluate the impact of a government s political strength on the probability of debt rescheduling controlling for the size of a country s debt service burden the impact of external shocks from the global system the structure of its domestic economy and whether its principal exports are agricultural raw materials minerals or man

is everything neutral in his well known analysis of the national debt robert barro introduced the notion of a dynastic family this notion has since become a standard research tool particularly in the areas of public finance and macroeconomics in this paper we critique the assumptions on which the dynastic model is predicated and argue that this framework is not a suitable abstraction in contexts in which the objective is to analyze the effects of public policies we reach this conclusion by formally considering a world in which each generation consists of a large number of distinct individuals as opposed to one representative individual we point out that family linkages form complex networks in which each individual may belong to many dynastic groupings the resulting proliferation of linkages between families gives rise to a host of neutrality results including the irrelevance of all public redistributions distortionary taxes and prices since these results are not at all descriptive of the real world we conclude

the compatibility of market liberalization and local economic development strategies cook p and hulme d 1988 the compatibility of market liberalization and local economic development strategies reg studies 22 221 231 the last decade has witnessed a growing emphasis on economic liberalization this new orthodoxy has come at a time when there is an increasing atmosphere of disillusionment surrounding conventional approaches to regional policy calls have been made for the creation of a new regional paradigm of development from below but most proposals are inappropriate for the majority of third world nations as they assume that planning occurs within a socialist framework this paper outlines the concepts that underpin policies of macroeconomic liberalization and the local economic development approach and examines the compatability of these policies it is argued that the local economic development approach could provide the basis for a development from below regional policy that complements a market oriented macroeconomic philosophy the conclusion notes the lack of empirica

the political economy of stabilization commitment capacity and public response abstract political pressures are generally recognized as important in determining success or failure of economic stabilization and adjustment programs but there has been little comparative analysis of the politics of stabilization this study examines the factors affecting i political leaders commitment to stabilization measures often called political will ii governmental ability to implement stabilization measures and iii the responses of key interest groups and the public at large to those measures the study also discusses political implications of the design of programs and the attempted speed of stabilization and sketches the tactics available to governments to manage political risk including partial compensation persuasion diversion or obfuscation and containment of protest the discussion is based on case studies of stabilization efforts in five fairly poor small highly trade dependent countries ghana in the late 1960s and early 1970s and zambia kenya sri lanka and jamaica in the late 1970s and early 1980s a subsidiary theme within the broader discussion is the ways in which the political economy of stabilization may differ in such countries as compared to larger semi industrialized economies

agricultural policy reform in zambia the dynamics of policy formulation in the second republic abstract the agricultural policy reform process in africa during the 1980s has been slow partly because it has neglected a number of key factors analysis of zambia s experience during the second republic suggests that greater attention needs to be given to institutional heritage political acceptability the diversity of policy making organizations and the policy freedom of subsectoral organizations neglect of these issues has led to difficulties in getting policy makers to even conceptualize reform and has led to much concern over the political implications of insensitive reform proposals

implementing economic policy reforms policies and opportunities for donors abstract african countries trying to cope with crippling economic problems by liberalizing their economies are facing major problems in implementing the reforms international organizations are responding by offering technical assistance typically however the assistance is based on limited and technocratic models that overlook the fact that many of the reforms are unimplementable reforms are complex and uncertain they impose significant political costs their values are generally incompatible with the prevailing political philosophy they involve changing roles they alter power relations within the government and they are identified with outsiders the dominant approaches to implementation privatization training and enhanced control by central ministries underestimate the extent to which the reforms undermine traditional practices the study recommends a fourth approach to address these challenges it relies on designing reforms in collaboration with those who will be in charge of implementing them

crime confiscation and frowth for and against leviathan this paper presents a dynamic general equilibrium model ofrent seeking in which the payoffs and the choices between productiveand non productive activity are endogenous the economy has the potential for endogenous growth but when agents can choose between confiscation and productive investment growth is no longer possible

innovation and market structure an empirical evaluation of the bounds approach in the chemical industry this paper applies sutton s 1998 bounds approach to the chemical industry the approach predicts that i the lower bound of the ratio of the 1 firm concentration index to product concentration is bounded away from zero at high levels of product concentration only in high r d markets and ii the lower bound on market concentration is higher and increasing in product concentration in markets with higher r d intensities we test these two hypotheses and find that the data strongly support them a novel feature of our analysis is the use of plant level data in defining products and the classification of products into markets based on end use

the structural adjustment of politics in africa abstract it has long been recognized that the structural adjustment programs currently being proposed by the world bank and the international monetary fund in africa have important political consequences however there has been almost no attention devoted to what structural adjustment if implemented means for the way that politics is actually carried out in african nations the failure to examine the long term consequences of economic reform for politics is particularly surprising given that the major instruments of structural adjustment public sector reform devaluation elimination of marketing boards threaten to change not only the constituencies that african leaders look to for support but the way in which leaders relate to their supporters in the countries south of the sahara the paper examines how structural adjustment if actually implemented would affect politics in african countries the paper finds that structural adjustment makes the political climate much riskier for leaders while weakening the central apparatus of the state on which rulers have long relied to stay in power the implications of the analysis for donors are also discussed

innovation and market structure in the dynamics of the pharmaceutical industry and biotechnology towards a history friendly model this paper is a first attempt at modelling the long term dynamics of market structure and innovation in the pharmaceutical industry in a history friendly way the model examines the relationships between the nature of the search space demand the patterns of competition and industry evolution in the age of random screening and in the age of molecular biology and shows that concentration in the pharmaceutical industry is shaped by lack of cumulativeness in innovative activities and market fragmentation the model conforms to our appreciative understanding and responds to changes in parameters concerning demand costs economies of scale opportunity conditions and the relative advantages of new biotechnology firms nbfs vis a vis incumbents with the exception of cost increases the model is quite robust to these changes in its essential features it is quite difficult to raise substantially concentration and to have nbfs displacing incumbents

market structure r d and advertising in the pharmaceutical industry jungere entwicklungen der literatur zum thema marktstruktur ermoglichen es robuste testbare hypothesen aus der theorie des strategischen verhaltens abzuleiten das grundlegende industrieokonomische modell geht von einer einfachen aber allgemein gultigen beziehung zwischen konzentration und marktgrose aus dabei wird insbesondere der einflus endogener versunkener kosten fur werbung und oder forschung und entwicklung fue auf den wettbewerb untersucht die empirischen ergebnisse dieser fallstudie zeigen das endogene versunkene kosten tatsachlich eine entscheidende rolle fur die herausbildung der marktstruktur in der pharmazeutischen industrie spielen die ergebnisse zeigen jedoch auch das unternehmensspezifische fahigkeiten geeignet sind die reaktionsweisen der unternehmen im wettbewerb zu erklaren

managing adjustment costs political authority and the implementation of adjustment programs with special reference to african countries abstract the degree to which a government implements a program given no disruptive factors depends critically on its legitimate authority to carry out the program and the degree to which management aspects notably management costs of the program were satisfactorily dealt with at the design stage program designers should understand the nature dimensions justification and basis of legitimate authority when the government s legitimate authority is inadequate program designers must advise the government to obtain it a properly designed program should also include measures to speed up entry prevent inefficient exit and minimize unemployment and underutilization of capacity have a framework for ensuring competitive and open markets and arm the program manager with tools to alleviate social tensions arising from certain distributional consequences and to respond to predictable nationalistic preferences

determinants of cross national knowledge transfer and its effect on firm innovation this study examines the determinants of international knowledge flow from a resource based perspective it evaluates the impact of cross national knowledge transfer on firm innovative performance based on 56 027 us patents owned by 53 selected firms in the us based pharmaceutical industry the results suggest that innovative performance is a curvilinear function of the international knowledge content used by a firm to innovate as hypothesized it was found that at 1 low and moderate levels of international knowledge content a firm s strategy to transfer international knowledge improves its innovative performance and at 2 higher levels of international knowledge content there are diminishing marginal returns to transferring knowledge from overseas

diversification by entry into a new submarket using a dataset on the subsector and geographical segmentation of 208 pharmaceutical companies a bayesian panel probit is used to analyze the role of state dependency size and achieved diversification in affecting entry decision we properly account for unobservable heterogeneity in a context with nonstrictly exogenous regressors we find that achieved diversification measured by the number of submarkets already entered affects negatively the probability of entry beside some country specific exceptions size and the lagged dependent variable do not seem to be relevant

finite lifetimes and growth abstract in this paper we study the long run growth property of overlapping generations models it is shown that in one sector models with convex technologies the asymptotic growth rate must be zero this results because the young do not have sufficient income to purchase a large capital stock thus a policy of income redistribution to the young can generate growth even if financed by income taxation additionaly it is shown that two sector models and one sector models with nonconvex technologies are consistent with growth

strategic procurement openness and market structure abstract we examine strategic procurement behaviour by governments and its effect on market structure in sectors such as defence and pharmaceuticals where the government is the dominant consumer in a world economy with trade between producer countries and between producers and non producers we use a modified dixit stiglitz utility function with an independent taste for variety there is free entry and exit by firms but by anticipating their participation constraint governments can indirectly choose the number of domestic firms and their size through its choice of procurement price unlike the standard model with no independent taste for variety and no external sector of non producer countries there are incentives for subsidies openness impacts on industrial structure and procurement coordination between producer countries affects firm numbers

political liberation and economic policy reform in africa abstract this paper assesses the impact of political liberalization on economic reform in sub saharan africa it argues that the emergence of more participatory politics will not necessarily make successful reform less likely although the instability of political change will exact an economic cost in the short run in the long run political liberalization provides opportunities as well as risks for economic reform it probably makes some macroeconomic reforms more difficult but it provides a window of opportunity for significant progress on governance issues the net impact will vary across states in most countries the prospects for economic reform will not be dramatically altered because political reform does not alter some of the structural characteristics of economic policy making in africa

changes in the living standards of the poor in sri lanka during a period of macroeconomic restructuring abstract beginning in 1977 sri lanka moved away from its welfare oriented economy characterized by extensive government intervention in controlling prices and expensive consumer subsidies toward a more market oriented outward looking liberalized economy investment increased due largely to dramatic increases in the inflow of foreign capital combined with greater deficit financing unemployment declined and the rate of growth of gdp increased the major increase in foreign assistance coupled with deficit spending enabled the government to undertake the ambitious infrastructure projects that stimulated demand however this policy change had deleterious consequences for the poor rapid inflation which resulted in a decline of real wages coupled with dramatic decreases in the value of the food stamp scheme brought about a decline in calorie consumption for lower expenditure groups in addition levels of malnutrition as measured by acute wasting were higher after the policy change

conflict and rent seeking success functions ratio vs difference models of relative success the rent seeking competitions studied by economists fall within a much broader category of conflict interactions that also includes military combats election campaigns industrial disputes lawsuits and sibling rivalries in the rent seeking literature each party s success pi which can be interpreted either as the probability of victory or as the proportion of the prize won has usually been taken to be a function of the ratio of the respective resource commitments alternatively however pi may instead be a function of the difference between the parties commitments to the contest the contest success function csf for the difference from is a logistic curve in which as is consistent with military experience increasing returns apply up to an inflection point at equal resource commitments a crucial flaw of the traditional ratio model is that neither onesided submission nor two sided peace between the parties can ever occur as a cournot equilibrium in contrast both of these outcomes are entirely consistent with a model in which success is a function of the difference between the parties resource commitments

does leadership matter in the economic reform process liberalization and governance in sri lanka 1989 1993 abstract governance assumptions of the east asian miracle may not be a sufficient or a necessary condition for effective economic reform or for solid growth to emerge in other asian economies this paper argues that in sri lanka where the state is not strong where it is not well coordinated and is neither cohesive nor disciplined in organizational terms strong political leadership proved critical in the second wave of reform from 1989 1993 even if it was essentially illiberal in the process of implementation technical and political imperatives are seen to be interrelated and parts of a single reform package

structural adjustment as a policy process the case of tanzania abstract analyses of structural adjustment in developing countries have increasingly come to emphasize the importance of grounding reforms in the political realities of the countries concerned while this approach is a step forward from the more economistic and prescriptive analyses that prevailed in the first part of the 1980s we believe that the dynamics of structural adjustment is only fully captured by an approach that treats the policy context as an explicit and independent variable on the basis of a case study of tanzania this article uses a policy process approach in which the notions of ambiguity and conflict in policy situations help us better understand the opportunities and constraints for action on structural adjustment issues

political explanations of macroeconomic management a survey abstract this paper surveys eight overlapping types of political explanation for patterns of macroeconomic management in the third world 1 historical traditions 2 socio structural determinants 3 the self interest of politically powerful sectors 4 entrenched characteristics of the political system 5 formal properties of the political institutions 6 the influence of economic ideologies 7 vicious virtuous circles and 8 a residual category of conjunctural factors it then considers the scope and limitations of such explanations and reassesses the notion of political constraints on economic optimization

on the political economy of stabilization abstract joan nelson 1984 includes sri lanka in the period 1977 1982 in a series of case studies of the factors affecting the political acceptability of stabilization and adjustment programs this is misleading because unlike the other countries dealt with sri lanka was not faced with an economic crisis when it accepted large multilateral loans under policy conditionality in fact the economic policies pursued in sri lanka after 1977 reflect the interests and political program of the domestic capitalist class the existence of such a class introduces dimensions to the analysis of the politics of adjustment not dealt with in nelson s framework

information systems in treaty regimes one of the most influential arguments in international relations is that international institutions influence states behavior by monitoring their compliance with treaties which in turn facilitates reciprocity empirically however many treaty organizations are not mandated to monitor compliance the article develops a parsimonious theoretical framework to address the empirical diversity of monitoring arrangements by mapping strategic environments onto monitoring arrangements it accounts for who detects noncompliance and who brings it to light in particular two factors the interest alignment between noncompliance victims and their states and the availability of noncompliance victims as low cost monitors largely shape the organizational forms of information systems this simple theory sheds light on a wide range of substantively important treaty regimes

governance structures and the durability of economic reforms evidence from inflation stabilizations abstract this paper investigates the relationship between a country s political economic and institutional environment and its ability to implement sustainable economic reform programs the policy issue on which the study focuses is inflation stabilization it consists principally of econometric estimations of the relationship between the success of stabilizations in a large sample of countries and several political and economic explanatory variables the hypotheses tested are drawn both from the recent macroeconomic literature on policy credibility and from political science the major findings include the following 1 a despite the conventional wisdom to the contrary political repression does not appear to be an effective means for implementing sustainable stabilization policies durable economic reforms and political freedoms appear to be complementary 2 b as has been previously argued theoretically and demonstrated empirically political instability is detrimental to policy reform 3 c the political will and popular consensus for stabilization policies are enhanced during a severe economic crisis 4 d there is weak evidence that intervention by the international monetary fund rather than supporting reform programs can undermine their credibility

returns to r d on new drug introductions in the 1980s abstract this study finds that the mean irr for 1980 1984 u s new drug introductions is 11 1 and the mean npv is 22 million 1990 dollars the distribution of returns is highly skewed the results are robust to plausible changes in the baseline assumptions our work is also compared with a 1993 study by the ota despite some important differences in assumptions both studies imply that returns for the average nce are within one percentage point of the industry s cost of capital this is much less than what is typically observed in analyses based on accounting data

the institutional environment for infrastructure investment the empirical evidence that links political institutions to economic outcomes has grown dramatically in recent years however virtually all of this analysis is undertaken using data from the past three decades this paper extends this empirical framework by performing a two century long historical analysis of the determinants of infrastructure investment in a panel of over 100 countries the results demonstrate that political environments that limit the feasibility of policy change are an important determinant of investment in infrastructure copyright 2002 oxford university press

innovation and corporate growth in the evolution of the drug industry abstract this work studies the processes of growth of the worlds top 150 pharmaceutical firms on the grounds of an original database which also allows disaggregate analysis at the level of single therapeutical classes and chemical entities our findings show that the industry whose long term evolution is driven by innovation imitation and permanent creation of new markets displays i fat tails in the distribution of growth shocks present at all levels of aggregation with relatively rare big spurs of growth ii a significant autocorrelation of growth rates iii a fall of variance of growth rates with size entirely dependent on corporate diversification patterns in turn plausibly shaped by the competence scope of each firm and iv different lifecycles of diverse types of products and persistent forms of heterogeneity across firms in terms of innovative output which however do not not seem to affect comparative growth performances

policy reform and reform myopia abstract recent decades witnessed major efforts on the part of many developingcountry government to alter existing economic policies and undo constraints on agricultural growth this article compares the dynamics of agricultural policy reform initiatives of the 1970s with those of the 1980s the authors argue that when the definition of what is needed in terms of policy to get agriculture moving changes the political economy of policy making and implementation also shifts such shifts are often accompanied by a myopic focus on new crisis definitions and new policy solutions to the detriment of more integrated approaches to agricultural development

policies for promoting regional agricultural trade abstract this paper deals with the political issues of trade liberalization after giving a brief account of the potential and barriers to intraregional trade in southern africa the position in malawi zambia and zimbabwe supports the view that there is a significant potential for trade barriers to trade are due to the external trading regime internal policies and external factors notably food aid the liberalization of the internal food economy is expected to give rise to additional trade flows among the countries regional integration schemes may further contribute to trade expansion however only if they are used as a step to worldwide integration and if an effective institutional framework is secured

pharmaceutical patents incentives for research and development or marketing we analyze how a patent holding pharmaceutical firm may strategically use advertising of existing drugs to affect research and development r d investments in new differentiated drugs and thereby affect the probability distribution of future market structures in the industry within a fairly general model framework we derive exact conditions for advertising and r d being substitute strategies for the incumbent firm and show that it may overinvest in advertising to reduce the incentive for an entrant to invest in r d thereby reducing the probability of a new product on the market in a more specific setting of informative advertising we show that such overinvestment incentives are always present and that more generous patent protection implies that a larger share of the patent rent is spent on marketing relative to r d

the politics of trade liberalization in africa have urged a wide range of policy reforms on african countries including correcting overvalued exchange rates reforming the public sector and trade liberalization in this article i explore the prospect that external trade liberalization reforms will be undertaken and sustained in africa many african countries have undertaken stabilization policies including devaluation of their currencies some have embarked on fundamental public sector reform programs few have liberalized their trade extensively this suggests after the fact that the political constraints may be greater for changing trade policies than for devaluing currencies or for restricting credit however while analyses have been undertaken that examine the politics of stabilization and the components of adjustment programs such as lowering consumer subsidies and some work is in process on privatization and public sector reform relatively little has been done on the politics of trade liberalization in africa by trade liberalization i mean the relaxation or elimination of tariffs and removal of duties and or quotas on exports alteration in nontariff barriers such as import quotas and quantitative restrictions changes in licensing and direct allocation of foreign exchange and in specific regulations for products and removal or relaxation of export subsidies 2 many african countries have used tariff and nontariff barriers to further import substitution strategies kenya for example in the 1970s placed increasing reliance on import controls and quantitative restrictions to save foreign exchange and to encourage domestic manufacturing production in the 1980s ghana and nigeria were at the high end of the scale of countries in terms of the number of goods covered by quantitative restrictions 3 the sudan has made extensive use of quotas

after the decision implementing policy reforms in developing countries abstract implicit in many reform proposals is a model of the policy process that is roughly linear a proposed reform gets on the agenda for government action a decision is made on the proposal and the new policy or institutional arangement is implemented either successfully or unsuccessfully this article presents an alternative interactive model of implementation that focuses on the conflict and reactions that are evoked by efforts to bring about changed policy or institutional contexts for development and the resources that policy makers and managers are likely to require to sustain a reform in the face of such reactions central to the analysis is the assertion that characteristics of the reform being implemented will largely determine the kind of conflict it engenders where such reaction is likely to become manifest and what resources are needed for sustainability the analysis suggests a framework for the strategic management of reform initiatives

on the real effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty in mexico we estimate an augmented multivariate garch m model of inflation and output growth for mexico at business cycle frequencies the main findings are 1 inflation uncertainty has a negative and significant effect on growth 2 once the effect of inflation uncertainty is accounted for lagged inflation does not have a direct negative effect on output growth 3 however as predicted by friedman and ball higher average inflation raises inflation uncertainty and the overall net effect of average inflation on output growth in mexico is negative that is average inflation is harmful to mexican growth due to its impact on inflation uncertainty 4 the mexican presidential election cycle significantly raises inflation uncertainty both during the year of the election and the year following the election which has correspondingly negative effects on output growth

regulation with growth the political economy of palm oil in malaysia abstract the study of the palm oil industry in malaysia demonstrates that with a proper mix of public regulation and investment a state may achieve national control over an industry and promote the interests of poorer citizens while promoting overall growth and international competitiveness of the industry the introduction summarizes the literature on public interventions in agricultural markets section 2 describes the palm oil industry and its growth in malaysia sections 3 and 4 discuss policies in investment and in regulation and marketing respectively the conclusion further articulates the thesis