interfirm rivalry in a repeated game an empirical test of tacit collusion rivalry in the vancouver retail gasoline market is modeled as a repeated game service station demand cost and intertemporal reaction functions are estimated from daily data on individual station prices costs and sales these functions are then used to calculate noncooperative and cooperative solutions to the constitutent game and the actual outcome of the repeated game the actual outcome is found to be substantially less lucrative than the monopoly solution nevertheless all stations are better off than if they played their noncooperative strategies in every period copyright 1987 by blackwell publishing ltd

the evolution of institutions in india and its relationship with economic growth this paper examines the evolution in a few public institutions over time in india it presents three types of evidence on institutional outcomes such as losses in power generation backlogs in disposal of court cases on perceptions based measures of governance some going back to the 1960s and finally on customs administration and whether it has been more effective at detecting evasion over time all the evidence suggests that institutional quality has not improved over time it then addresses the two way relationship between growth and institutions in terms of two apparent paradoxes the first is why growth has turned around so dramatically in india despite the relatively limited nature of reforms especially compared with other countries the second paradox is why despite nearly 30 years of rapid growth institutions have not improved the paper offers some explanations that might help explain these paradoxes

farm productivity and rural poverty in india armed with new data we return to an old question from the pages of this journal to what extent do india s rural poor share in agricultural growth combining data from 24 household sample surveys spanning 35 years with other sources we estimate a model of the joint determination of consumption poverty measures agricultural wages and food prices we find that higher farm productivity brought both absolute and relative gains to poor rural households a large share of the gains was via wages and prices though these effects took time the benefits to the poor were not confined to those near the poverty line

wages profits and capital intensity evidence from matched worker firm data swedish data on workers matched with firms balance sheet reports are used to examine the relation between wages and firms ability to pay results indicate that experienced and highly educated workers are sorted into profitable firms wages are positively correlated with profits and the capital labor ratio after controlling for worker quality degree of effort supervision job characteristics local unemployment firms employment history and employer size lester s range of pay due to rent sharing is around 12 24 of the mean wage in sweden which is close to the estimates for the united states and united kingdom

cartels profits and excess capacity a model of a collusive duopoly in which each firm has limited capacity is studied the negotiated output quotas depend on the bargaining power of the firms which derives from the damage the firms can do by cutting prices for fixed capacities the unit profit of the small firm is at least as large as that of the large firm and the relative position of the small firm is better when demand is low when the capacities can be chosen once and for all there is excess capacity in equilibrium so long as the cost of capacity is not too high copyright 1987 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

in search of predatory pricing can predatory pricing be reproduced in a laboratory environment we report research motivated by this objective we began with conditions that based on the literature appeared to combine the features this literature has suggested are favorable to the emergence of predation next we operationalized what was meant by predatory pricing in our design in order to compare prices with predictions from alternative theories of 10 experiments none evidenced predatory behavior most supported the dominant firm theory the second series of experiments addresses remedies for predation and finds that the effect is to increase prices and reduce efficiency

the creation and capture of rents wages and innovation in a panel of u k companies this paper examines the impact of technological innovation on wages using a panel of british firms a head count measure of major innovations between 1945 and 1983 is combined with share price and accounting information innovating firms are found to have higher average wages but rival innovation tends to depress own wages this appears consistent with a model where wages are partly determined by a sharing in the rents generated by innovation in other words innovation may be a good instrument for proxies for rents such as profitability quasi rents or tobin s average q instrumental variable estimates of the elasticity between wages and quasi rents are about 0 29

reputation and imperfect information abstract a common observation in the informal literature of economics and elsewhere is that is multistage games players may seek early in the game to acquire a reputation for being tough or benevolent or something else but this phenomenon is not observed in some formal game theoretic analyses of finite games such as selten s finitely repeated chain store game or in the finitely repeated prisoners dilemma we reexamine selten s model adding to it a small amount of imperfect or incomplete information about players payoffs and we find that this addition is sufficient to give rise to the reputation effect that one intuitively expects

an equilibrium selection theory of monopolization we develop a duopoly model in which firms compete for the market e g investing in process innovation or product development as well as in the market e g setting quantities or prices competition for the market generates multiple equilibria that differ in the firms investment levels relative size and profitability we show that monopolization that affects competition in the market can act as an equilibrium selection device in competition for the market in particular it eliminates equilibria that are undesirable for the monopolizing firm while not generating new equilibria this result complicates the task of determining whether a firm s dominance in a given market is the result of fair competition or unlawful monopolization we discuss a number of implications for antitrust policy and litigation and illustrate these by means of two well known antitrust cases

the enigma of india india s high growth over the last fifteen years has inspired several recent books and papers to examine the growth s source and sustainability the two volume study by arvind virmani being a case in point this paper evaluates these recent works it is argued that the cause of the take off does not fit into any easy ideological category as suggested by virmani the current high growth has been achieved in several steps with distinct factors of propulsion behind each step there is reason to expect the growth to be sustainable although destabilizing political tensions will arise from the increasing inequality the paper also evaluates how india s growth relates to the global economy

on the existence of predatory pricing an experimental study of reputation and entry deterrence in the chain store game a single monopolist plays a sequence of eight periods against a series of different entrants there are two types of monopolists weak monopolists whose single period best response is to acquiesce after entry and strong monopolists whose dominant strategy is to fight entry data show high levels of predatory pricing defined as weak monopolists fighting all entrants in early periods both with and without experimenter induced strong monopolists we reject a number of predictions of the asymmetric information sequential equilibrium model of kreps and wilson 1982 and find important deviations from more general sequential equilibrium models as well

profitability in india s organized manufacturing sector the role of technology distribution and demand using aggregate data from the annual survey of industries we analyze profitability in india s organized manufacturing sector from 1982 83 to 2012 13 over the whole period of analysis the rate of profit grew at about 1 per annum primarily driven by a rising share of profits we use visual inspection to identify five shorter run profitability regimes 1982 91 1991 96 1996 2001 2001 07 and 2007 12 profit rate decomposition analysis shows that both technological factors and aggregate demand have been important determinants of changes in profitability in these shorter periods

the digital provide information technology market performance and welfare in the south indian fisheries sector when information is limited or costly agents are unable to engage in optimal arbitrage excess price dispersion across markets can arise and goods may not be allocated efficiently in this setting information technologies may improve market performance and increase welfare between 1997 and 2001 mobile phone service was introduced throughout kerala a state in india with a large fishing industry using microlevel survey data we show that the adoption of mobile phones by fishermen and wholesalers was associated with a dramatic reduction in price dispersion the complete elimination of waste and near perfect adherence to the law of one price both consumer and producer welfare increased

on the detection of collusion and predation abstract this lecture not only shows how game theory can contribute to the detection of collusion and predation but also how experts for the defense can use game theoretic arguments to make such detection difficult a few important european anti trust cases are discussed to illustrate

technology distribution and the rate of profit in the us economy understanding the current crisis this paper offers a synoptic account of the state of the debate among marxist scholars regarding the current structural crisis of capitalism identifies two broad streams within the literature dealing in turn with aggregate demand and profitability problems and proceeds to concentrate on an analysis of issues surrounding the profitability problem in two steps first evidence on profitability trends for the non farm non financial corporate business the non financial corporate business and the corporate business sectors in post war usa are summarised a broad range of profit rate measures are covered and data from both the us bureau of economic analysis nipa and fixed assets tables and the federal reserve flow of funds account are used second the underlying drivers of profitability in terms of technology and distribution are investigated the profitability analysis is used to offer some hypotheses about the current structural crisis copyright oxford university press

collusive equilibrium in the great salt duopoly this paper uses data presented in a report of the monopolies and mergers commission on the market for white salt to test the implications of some recent developments in oligopoly theory the market in question is a homogeneous price setting duopoly where firms are subject to capacity constraints we find that the conclusions of models based on one shot non cooperative games do not hold collusion in the market is readily explained by the types of threat strategies underlying abreu s simple penal codes possible explanations of the collusive equilibrium in terms of joint profit maximization are not supported by the data indeed the explanation of the equilibrium remains an open question copyright 1993 by royal economic society

financialisation and capital accumulation in the non financial corporate sector a theoretical and empirical investigation on the us economy 1973 2003 recent research has explored the growing financialization process in the u s and other advanced economies the term is a catch all phrase used to denote important changes in the structure of non financial corporations balance sheets including the growth of income from financial subsidiaries and investment as well as growth in the transfer of earnings to financial markets in the forms of interest payments dividend payments and stock buybacks this paper seeks to empirically explore the relationship between financialization in the u s economy and real investment at the firm level using data from a sample of non financial corporations from 1973 to 2003 i find a negative relationship between real investment and financialization first increased financial investment and increased financial profit opportunities may have crowded out real investment by changing the incentives of firm managers and directing funds away from real investment second increased payments to the financial markets may have impeded real investment by decreasing available internal funds shortening the planning horizons of the firm management and increasing uncertainty these two channels can help explain the negative relationship i find between investment and financialization

economic reforms in india since 1991 has gradualism worked opinions on the causes of india s growth deceleration vary world economic growth was slower in the second half of the 1990s and that would have had some dampening effect but india s dependence on the world economy is not large enough for this to account for the slowdown critics of liberalization have blamed the slowdown on the effect of trade policy reforms on domestic industry however the opposite view is that the slowdown is due not to the effects of reforms but rather to the failure to implement the reforms effectively this in turn is often attributed to india s gradualist approach to reform which has meant a frustratingly slow pace of implementation however even a gradualist pace should be able to achieve significant policy changes over ten years this paper examines india s experience with gradualist reforms from this perspective

wages profits and rent sharing the paper suggests a new test for rent sharing in the u s labor market using an unbalanced panel from the manufacturing sector it shows that a rise in a sector s profitability leads after some years to an increase in the long run level of wages in that sector the paper controls for workers characteristics for industry fixed effects and for unionism lester s range of wages is estimated for rent sharing reasons alone at approximately 24 per cent of the mean wage

the economics of the profit rate competition crises and historical tendencies in capitalism part 1 the profit rate the economics of the profit rate a summary definitions and measures of the profit rate part 2 competition and prices of production prices of production long term equilibrium in classical and walrasian models the classical analysis of competition convergence part 3 general disequilibrium a general disequilibrium model development of the basic model proportions and dimension in the short and long terms out of the mainstream part 4 stability and business fluctuations the real and monetary determinants of macro in stability the impact of the profit rate on the macroeconomy business fluctuations in other paradigms part 5 technology and distribution a historical perspective the historical profile of the profit rate historical tendencies accumulation and growth profitability trends part 6 history profitability and management a chronological overview the historical dynamics of capitalism

technology and distribution historical trajectories a la marx abstract in capital marx introduces a system of historical tendencies accounting for the trends of the major technological and distributional variables notably the profit rate quite distinct from the usual steady states marx s main insight is that of a difficulty to innovate it is difficult to find new processes allowing for the growth of labor productivity while not considerably reducing the productivity of capital the growth of the wage rate is stimulated by the rise of employment but the stabilization of the share of wages forbids a direct imputation of the decline of the profit rate to the excessive growth of the wage rate

rent sharing and wages evidence from company and establishment panels a central question in labor economics and macroeconomics is whether the textbook competitive model provides an adequate representation of the labor market using longitudinal data on companies and establishments this article suggests that it may not as predicted by rent sharing models of the labor market changes in profitability are shown to feed through into long run changes in wages these are not temporary wage effects and are not driven by the unionized workplaces in the data the article s estimates imply that for rent sharing reasons alone lester s range of wages is approximately 16

wages and profits in manufacturing firms matched panel evidence from brazil we provide evidence about the determinants of the wage structures of developing countries by examining the case of brazil our specific question is whether brazil s dramatic income and wage dierentials can be explained by the division of rents between firms and their employees unlike in competitive labour markets using detailed individual level matched panel data covering a large share of manufacturing firms and more than 30 million workers between 1997 and 2002 we consider the endogeneity of profits by adopting dierent measures of profits and dierent instruments and by controlling for spell fixed eects our results robust to dierent specifications and tests indicate no evidence of rent sharing this conclusion contrasts with findings for most developed countries even those with flexible labour markets possible explanations for the lack of rent sharing include the weakness of labour market institutions the high levels of worker turnover and the macroeconomic instability faced by the country

is india s economic growth leaving the poor behind there has been much debate about how much india s poor have shared in the economic growth unleashed by economic reforms in the 1990s the authors argue that india has probably maintained its 1980s rate of poverty reduction in the 1990s however there is considerable diversity in performance across states this holds some important clues for understanding why economic growth has not done more for india s poor india s economic growth in the 1990s has not been occurring in the states where it would have the most impact on poverty nationally if not for the sectoral and geographic imbalance of growth the national rate of growth would have generated a rate of poverty reduction that was double india s historical trend rate states with relatively low levels of initial rural development and human capital development were not well suited to reduce poverty in response to economic growth the study s results are consistent with the view that achieving higher aggregate economic growth is only one element of an effective strategy for poverty reduction in india the sectoral and geographic composition of growth is also important as is the need to redress existing inequalities in human resource development and between rural and urban areas

econometric modelling in the presence of evolutionary change a methodology is offered which can be used to construct an econometric model in the presence of structural change of an evolutionary type the theoretical basis for such modelling is drawn from the self organisation approach and operationalised in the context of the logistic diffusion growth model the latter is augmented to allow for the impact of exogenous effects upon both the diffusion rate and boundary limit we show how the hypothesis of augmented logistic diffusion can be falsified using econometric methods an illustrative case study is used namely the growth and decline of australian building society deposits with the aid of this example it is shown how the approach could be of use to both economic forecasters and regulators in conditions of structural change where conventional econometric methods are often inappropriate jel classification c51 c53 e42 e47 g18 o31

shareholder wealth and wages evidence for white collar workers we present empirical evidence on the relationship between individual wages conditional on worker characteristics and equity returns using a unique survey from the bureau of labor statistics equity returns affect the wages only of workers with three or more years of tenure a 4 percent increase in a firm s market value raises pay by 0 3 percent within three years our estimates suggest that each 10 increase in shareholder wealth raises the present value of a firm s wage bill by 1 the elasticity of white collar wages with respect to equity returns is one third smaller than the ceo salary elasticities in our sample

rent sharing before and after the wage bill many biases plague the analysis of whether employers share rents with their employees unlike what is predicted by the competitive labour market model using a portuguese matched employer employee panel this article is one of the first to address these biases in three complementary ways 1 controlling directly for the fact that firms that share more rents will ceteris paribus have lower net of wages profits 2 instrumenting profits via interactions between the exchange rate and the share of exports in firm s total sales 3 considering firm or firm worker spell fixed effects and highlighting the role of downward wage rigidity these approaches clarify conflicting findings in the literature and result in our preferred specifications in significant evidence of rent sharing a lester range of pay dispersion of 56 also shown to be robust to a number of competitive interpretations

risk sharing in labor markets empirical work in labor economics has focused on rent sharing as an explanation for the observed correlation between wages and profitability the alternative explanation of risk sharing between workers and employers has not been tested using a unique panel data set for four african countries authors find strong evidence of risk sharing workers in effect offer insurance to employers when firms are hit by temporary shocks the effect on profits is cushioned by risk sharing with workers rent sharing is a symptom of an inefficient labor market risk sharing by contrast can be seen as an efficient response to missing markets authors evidence suggests that risk sharing accounts for a substantial part of the observed effect of shocks on wages

why has economic growth been more pro poor in some states of india than others abstract we use 20 household surveys for india s 15 major states spanning 1960 1994 to study how the sectoral composition of economic growth and initial conditions interact to influence how much growth reduced consumption poverty the elasticities of measured poverty to farm yields and development spending did not differ significantly across states but the elasticities of poverty to urban and rural non farm output varied appreciably and the differences were quantitatively important to the overall rate of poverty reduction states with higher elasticities did not experience higher rates of non farm growth the non farm growth process was more pro poor in states with initially higher literacy higher farm productivity higher rural living standards relative to urban areas lower landlessness and lower infant mortality

the regulation of labor author s botero juan djankov simeon la porta rafael lopez de silanes florencio shleifer andrei abstract we investigate the regulation of labor markets through employment collective relations and social security laws in 85 countries we find that the political power of the left is associated with more stringent labor regulations and more generous social security systems and that socialist french and scandinavian legal origin countries have sharply higher levels of labor regulation than do common law countries however the effects of legal origins are larger and explain more of the variation in regulations than those of politics heavier regulation of labor is associated with lower labor force participation and higher unemployment especially of the young these results are most naturally consistent with legal theories according to which countries have pervasive regulaory styles inherited from the transplantation of legal systems

the size and sources of economic rents in a developing country manufacturing labour market the potential sources of rent to labor in a developing country urban labor market are considered in this paper the data set used enables the relative importance of unions firm size profitability ownership and firm age to be assessed on the basis of cross section evidence it is shown that all these factors affect earnings a panel data based estimation of the importance of the profitability term provides strong support for a rent sharing theory of wage determination in a developing country similar to much recent evidence for developed country labor markets copyright 1996 by royal economic society

cartel enforcement with uncertainty about costs what cartel agreements are possible when firms have private information about production costs in order for a cartel agreement to work it must take into account the incentives for firms to misrepresent their cost information and it must provide sufficient reward so that no firm wishes to defect for private cost uncertainty we characterize the set of cartel agreements with side payments that can be supported as bayesian nash equilibria we show that if defection results in either cournot or bertrand competition the incentive problems in large cartels are severe enough to prevent the cartel from achieving the monopoly outcome in contrast with common cost uncertainty the incentive problems become less severe in large cartels allowing perfect collusion

economic liberalization and indian economic growth what s the evidence india s growth and poverty performance over the last three decades has been a subject of great curiosity unlike the east asian countries india s growth spurt is not associated with exceptionally high domestic savings or foreign capital inflows or manufacturing exports so what triggered the change in the growth trajectory did the market liberalization policies of the 1990s help how have the initial conditions shaped the process and how has the indian model impinged on india s central problem of mass poverty this paper surveys the literature and offers its own assessment of the drivers of change jel i32 o13 o14 o15 o21 o47

what has luck got to do with it a regional analysis of poverty and agricultural growth in rural india this article explores the role of agro ecological factors associated with agricultural growth and poverty outcomes in india using a new operationalisation of agro ecological factors and incorporating within state variations in poverty and other variables we show that agricultural growth and poverty reduction appear to depend on underlying agro ecological conditions which are favourable to the spread of irrigation and hence agricultural development which in turn in associated with poverty reduction promotion of agriculture in less favoured areas in unlikely to have similar effects on agriculture in less favoured areas is unlikely to have similar effects on agricultural growth even if the effects of agricultural growth on poverty remain similar unless conditions for irrigation are favourable or rainfall is sufficiently abundant and reliable this suggests that considerable caution may be needed in drawing policy conclusions from empirical analysis by state alone and without regard to their underlying f

agricultural productivity growth rural economic diversity and economic reforms india 1970 2000 a salient theme in d gale johnson s work is the importance of agricultural development for general prosperity and for economic diversification e g johnson 2000 johnson has also noted that most of the world s poor are engaged in farming so that a key focus of development policy is to raise the incomes of farmers from a global perspective increasing the productivity of agriculture given the fixity of land is necessary for both poverty reduction and the development of the nonagricultural sector at the level of the world agricultural productivity gains poverty reduction and the growth of the nonfarm sector are complements however the question remains whether these observations imply that every poor country should focus its public resources on agricultural development in order to raise the incomes of people now engaged in farming and whether such a policy is necessary for obtaining economic diversity in this article we use the experience of india over the past 30 years to address the issue of whether agricultural technical change actually leads to economic diversification and income growth within the rural sector in the context of an open economy country in which there are cross area trade and capital flows we focus in particular on the rural sector because this is the sector in which linkages between agricultural and nonagricultural sectors are thought to be the strongest we exploit the fact that india has maintained a policy of openness with respect to agricultural technology over this period permitting and actively supporting agricultural development and has moved to a reformed regime in which goods are traded and capital is more mobile in the 1990s evidence on the relationship between agricultural growth and nonfarm

do rural banks matter evidence from the indian social banking experiment lack of access to finance is often cited as a key reason why poor people remain poor this paper uses data on the indian rural branch expansion program to provide empirial evidence on this issue between 1977 and 1990 the indian central bank mandated that a commercial bank can open a branch in a location with one or more bank branches only if it opens four in locations with no bank branches we show that between 1977 and 1990 this rule caused banks to open relatively more rural branches in indian states with lower initial financial development the reverse is true outside this period we exploit this fact to identify the impact of opening a rural bank on poverty and output our estimates suggest that the indian rural branch expansion program significantly lowered rural poverty and increased non agricultural output

steady change the 200 largest us manufacturing firms throughout the 20th century this paper discusses the existence of structural change in business activity and technological competence among the 200 largest us manufacturing companies throughout the 20th century the data were taken from chandler scale and scope 1990 and fortune magazine the analysis of corporate evolution in used to assess continuity versus turbulence of business organizations in the context of the neo schumpeterian long wave hypothesis the empirical results show that the giants of the late 20th century are not the same as those at the beginning of that period persistence in the sample is very limited moreover turbulence is not smooth but rather occurs by impulses that affect specific industries and it has increased over time overall the pattern of corporate entry and industry development is very indicative of the new opportunities emerging with information and communication technologies this process of open ended continuous transformation supports the case for putting change at the centre of economic analysis

optimal penal codes in price setting supergames with capacity constraints this paper constructs optimal pure strategy penal codes for a broad class of symmetric bertrand supergames with capacity constraints the results should simplify the analysis of bertrand supergames because the punishments comprising the penal codes constructed below have a very simple form and the associated payoffs are often easy to calculate it is also shown that for a commonly employed subclass of the games considered the admission of mixed strategies does not allow severer punishments the analysis draws heavily on the pathbreaking work of abreu 1984 he demonstrated that in the search for optimal penal codes attention can be restricted to simple penal codes simple penal codes are characterized by a vector of outcome paths one for each player the ith outcome path is interpreted as the punishment to be imposed on the ith player if he deviates from the equilibrium path or from any punishment path section 2 explains the basic framework of analysis the class of bertrand games studied is very general no particular rationing rule is imposed some mild restrictions are placed on the firms sales functions instead the commonly used models of levitan and shubik 1972 and beckman 1965 are special cases of the games analysed below it is assumed throughout that there is a price firms can be induced to charge if the punishment for charging a different price gives the offending firm a payoff equal to its security level for the supergame thus either there must exist a static nash equilibrium in pure strategies or else the discount factor must not be too close to zero in section 3 optimal penal codes are constructed and it is established that the punishments comprising them always drive punished firms to their security levels the arguments employed make clear that optimal penal codes are not generally unique this issue is addressed in section 4 where it is also shown that the levitan shubik rationing rule exhibits more types of optimal penal codes than do other rules in particular if the levitan shubik rule is employed then punishments that are analogous to abreu s 1986 symmetric two phase punishments for cournot games can be used to construct optimal penal codes in bertrand games this property does not hold generally however

labor turnover and labor legislation in brazil one of the main characteristics of the brazilian labor market is its impressively high job and worker turnover rates although labor legislation in brazil is very restrictive dismissal costs are not high when compared with other latin american countries moreover many authors argue that the design of some job security programs creates perverse incentives that generate labor turnover the objective of this paper is twofold first we describe brazilian labor legislation with emphasis on job security provisions and their incentives on workers reallocation then after reviewing the most recent evidence on labor turnover in brazil we investigate the effects of changes in job termination costs implemented in the 1988 constitution and in a labor law of september 2001 on employment duration both legislation changes increased firing costs and should have therefore reduced turnover for formal workers affected by them a simple differences in differences methodology is applied to monthly individual data from pesquisa mensal de emprego pme ibge which has information on previous employment spells for those currently unemployed the results establish that both changes reduced turnover for formal workers affected by the legislation a significant increase in average employment duration of affected workers relative to not affected workers was observed after both legislation changes we also provided evidence that the 1988 constitutional change reduced the probability of fake layoffs although there are still a high number of such agreements being made between workers and their employers