stabilization policy a reconsideration i introduction in 1936 keynes s general theory explained how fiscal and monetary policy could be used to end depressions since that time no developed country has ever seen a downturn on the scale of the 1930s the general theory was not just a how to book on the avoidance of depressions it was an argument for stabilization policy itself the years since the general theory have seen a revolt against keynesian economics in a revisionist mode milton friedman argued that countercyclical policy cannot affect the average level of unemployment and output robert lucas and thomas sargent 1979 went further contending that it is not only impossible to increase average output it is also impossible to stabilize it more recently lucas 1987 2003 has argued that policies to stabilize output even if effective would yield negligible welfare gains thus stabilization policy should not be a macroeconomic priority lucas s conclusion notwithstanding stabilization policy has long been an explicit or implicit objective of monetary policy in most industrial countries even including those countries with inflation targets the volatility of output has in fact declined in most major industrial countries since the mid 1980s and monetary policy arguably deserves at least partial credit see bernanke 2004 mirroring practice monetary policy research commonly takes it as given that along with price stability stabilization policy the minimization of squared deviations of output around potential is an appropriate policy objective see for example clarida et al 1999 in this article we explore the economic rationale for stabilization as a policy goal concluding that it does in fact deserve high policy priority we survey a large body of literature that critiques the validity of key assumptions in lucas s argument we also offer suggestive evidence that stabilization policy can significantly reduce average levels of unemployment by providing stimulus to demand in circumstances where unemployment is high but underutilization of labor and capital does little to lower inflation a monetary policy that vigorously fights high unemployment should however also be complemented by a policy that equally vigorously fights inflation when it rises above a modest target level the federal reserve act thus wisely enunciated price stability and maximum employment as twin goals for monetary policy ii the case against stabilization policy macroeconomic analysis typically assumes that social welfare depends negatively on both inflation above a modest target level here assumed zero and unemployment above some minimum socially efficient level for example a standard social welfare function is the discounted sum of period losses l sub t of the form see among others barro and gordon 1983 pp 592 93 1 l sub t a u sub t 1 k u sup 2 b pi sup 2 sub t where u sub t and pi sub t are the unemployment and inflation rates in period t and u sup is the natural rate of unemployment the coefficient k is positive reflecting the desirability of unemployment below the natural rate because real economies deviate in many respects from perfect competition the natural rate of unemployment is likely to exceed the socially optimal unemployment rate for example with monopolistic competition goods are underproduced because they are priced above marginal cost so potential output is inefficiently low and equilibrium unemployment is too high standard macroeconomic analysis additionally assumes that inflation is determined by an expectations augmented accelerationist phillips curve of the form 2 pi sub t pi sup e sub t f u sub t u sup epsilon sub t where pi sup e sub t is the expected inflation rate at time t with expectations formed at t 1 and epsilon sub t captures supply shocks to the phillips curve at t

modern money theory and the facts of experience this paper discusses modern money theory mmt with a particular focus on the role of the state in its monetary system and the nature of money it addresses the main differences between the orthodox heterodox and mmt approaches to monetary theory while reconciling endogenous money theory with the state money approach by emphasising the symmetry between how banks create money as they finance private spending and how the government creates money when it finances its own spending we clarify some of the misconceptions surrounding mmt while showing that it is more consistent with the facts of experience furthermore we argue that mmt s insistence that government spending or lending must precede bond sales is consistent with the keynesian emphasis on effective demand as the driving force behind income and saving we delve into mmt s implications for monetary and fiscal policy with a particular focus on the eurozone we conclude our paper by discussing two proposals of monetary cranks narrow banking and government issue of debt free money this allows us to re emphasise mmt s views on the nature of money

does marriage really make men more productive this paper presents new descriptive evidence regarding marital pay premiums earned by white males longitudinal data indicate that wages rise after marriage and that cross sectional marriage premiums appear to result from a steepening of the earnings profile data from a company personnelfile that includes information on job grades and supervisor performance ratings reveal large marital status pay differences within a narrow range of occupations managers and professionals and environments a single firm married workers tend to be located in higher paying job grades there are very small pay differentials within grades married men receive higher performance ratings than single men as a result they are much more likely to be promoted controlling for rated performance however eliminates the promotion differential sanders korenman is an assistant professor of economics and public affairs at princeton university and is a faculty associate of the office of population research at princeton university and a research affiliate of the national bureau of economic research nber david neumark is an assistant professor of economics at the university of pennsylvania and a research affiliate of the nber korenman wishes to acknowledge the hewlett foundation and the harvard university center for population studies for financial support the authors are grateful to james medofffor making available an extract from the company personnelfile questions regarding data availability should be directed to professor james

pricing risk in economies with heterogeneous agents and incomplete markets habit formation has been proposed as a possible solution to the equity premium puzzle this paper extends the class of models that support the habits explanation in order to account for heterogeneity in earnings wealth habits and consumption i find that habit formation does indeed increase the equity premium however contrary to earlier results the habit hypothesis does not imply a price for risk as largeas the one measured in the data there are three reasons for this first households in a habits economy modify their consumption savings decision second they modify their portfolio choice these two changes in behavior diminish the consumption fluctuations faced by households third the composition of the set of agents pricing risk in the economy changes so that relatively better self insured households end up pricing risk jel d52 g12 e21 c68

the distributional implications of asymmetric income dynamics abstract income dynamics differ between groups of households defined by whether the head has university education or not and have changed asymmetrically in great britain since 2008 using a heterogeneous agent incomplete markets model we examine the quantitative implications of these differences for wealth inequality and for the distribution of conditional welfare losses within group wealth inequality is higher for the non university group and has increased since 2008 for both groups while between group inequality has also increased welfare losses are significantly higher for the non university educated since 2008 and are driven by both a greater fall in mean income and a larger rise in income risk non university educated households which had initial wealth below the median and net labour income in the lower quintiles suffered bigger losses social insurance policies beyond those currently in place can mitigate such welfare losses via tax and benefit redistributive mechanisms for the broad majority of households social insurance is valued more when it insures against the big adverse income shocks

environmental tax policy and intergenerational distribution abstract we study the effects of environmental taxation within the context of an overlapping generations model the quality of the environment is modelled as a durable consumption good introduction of the environmental tax harms old existing generations and benefits young existing generations as well as all future generations increasing the tax in a pareto improving manner is easier the higher the pre existing tax the reverse holds if tax policy is decided by majority rule a suitably designed bond policy can be used to redistribute the efficiency gains due to the internalisation of environmental externalities across the generations

the 2009 recovery act stimulus at the extensive and intensive labor margins abstract this paper studies the effect of government stimulus spending on a novel aspect of the labor market the differential impact of spending on the total wage bill versus employment we analyze the 2009 recovery act via instrumental variables using a new instrument the spending done by federal agencies that were not instructed to target funds towards harder hit regions we find a moderate positive effect on jobs created saved i e the extensive margin and also a significant increase in wage payments to workers whose job status was safe without recovery act funds i e the intensive margin our point estimates imply that roughly one half of the wage payments resulting from the act were paid at the intensive margin to provide a theoretical underpinning for the estimates we build a micro founded dynamic model in which a firm meets new government demand with a combination of new hiring and increasing existing workers average hours faced with hiring costs and an overtime premium the firm responds by increasing hours along both margins our model analysis also provides insight into how government spending policy should be structured to lower the cost of generating new jobs finally we catalogue survey evidence from recovery act fund recipients that reinforces the importance of the intensive labor margin

abatement investments and green goodwill this paper develops and estimates a dynamic model that links profits to green goodwill assuming that abatement investments generate green goodwill and using data from the swedish pulp industry we are able to test the effects of green goodwill on firm level output price and profits the results suggests that swedish pulp plant output prices and profits may be positively related to changes in green goodwill furthermore no evidence is found to support the existence of adjustment costs due to abatement investments

value function approximation in the presence of uncertainty and inequality constraints an application to the demand for credit cards abstract we present an algorithm for approximating the solution to discrete time stochastic dynamic programs with inequality constraints the algorithm exploits the state preference approach to choice under uncertainty to reduce the dimensionality of the state space and polynomial approximation to improve computational efficiency it is particularly useful in financial applications involving liquidity and credit constraints and more than one asset the algorithm provides information about the derivatives of the value function and therefore risk aversion along with asset demands

analyzing the effects of insuring health risks on the trade off between short run insurance benefits vs long run incentive costs this paper constructs a dynamic model of health insurance to evaluate the short and long run effects of policies that prevent firms from conditioning wages on health conditions of their workers and that prevent health insurance companies from charging individuals with adverse health conditions higher insurance premia our study is motivated by recent us legislation that has tightened regulations on wage discrimination against workers with poorer health status americans with disability act of 2009 ada and ada amendments act of 2008 adaaa and that will prohibit health insurance companies from charging different premiums for workers of different health status starting in 2014 patient protection and affordable care act ppaca in the model a trade off arises between the static gains from better insurance against poor health induced by these policies and their adverse dynamic incentive effects on household efforts to lead a healthy life using household panel data from the psid we estimate and calibrate the model and then use it to evaluate the static and dynamic consequences of no wage discrimination and no prior conditions laws for the evolution of the cross sectional health and consumption distribution of a cohort of households as well as ex ante lifetime utility of a typical member of this cohort in our quantitative analysis we find that although a combination of both policies is effective in providing full consumption insurance period by period it is suboptimal to introduce both policies jointly since such policy innovation induces a more rapid deterioration of the cohort health distribution over time this is due to the fact that combination of both laws severely undermines the incentives to lead healthier lives the resulting negative effects on health outcomes in society more than offset the static gains from better consumption insurance so that expected discounted lifetime utility is lower under both policies relative to only implementing wage nondiscrimination legislation

volatility risk and economic welfare this paper examines the effects of time varying volatility on welfare i construct a tractable endogenous growth model with recursive preferences stochastic volatility and capital adjustment costs the model shows that a rise in volatility can decelerate growth in the absence of any level shocks in contrast to level risk which is always welfare reducing for a risk averse household volatility risk can increase or decrease welfare depending on model parameters when calibrated to u s data the model finds that the welfare cost of volatility risk is largely negligible under plausible model parameterizations

financial intermediation house prices and the welfare effects of the u s great recession abstract this paper quantifies the welfare costs of the great recession in the united states and their distribution between borrowing and saving households we use a calibrated dynamic general equilibrium model with shocks to aggregate income and to the financial intermediation sector the model matches the boom bust cycle in house prices the dynamics of household leverage and the increase in inequality of wealth observed in the u s after 2007 we find large welfare costs for financially constrained households the borrowers savers instead benefited from a redistribution of housing wealth due to the de leveraging of borrowers caused by the plunge in house prices this redistribution mechanism was exacerbated by the financial intermediation shock we also show that the welfare costs for borrowers would have been lower if aggregate leverage had remained at pre 2001 levels

the effect of green investment on corporate behavior this paper explores the effect of exclusionary ethical investing on corporate behavior in a risk averse equilibrium setting while arguments exist that ethical investing can influence a firm s cost of capital and so affect investment no equilibrium model has been presented to do so we show that exclusionary ethical investing leads to polluting firms being held by fewer investors since green investors eschew polluting firms stock this lack of risk sharing among non green investors leads to lower stock prices for polluting firms thus raising their cost of capital if the higher cost of capital more than overcomes a cost of reforming i e a polluting firm cleaning up its activities then polluting firms will become socially responsible because of exclusionary ethical investing a key determinant of the incentive for polluting firms to reform is the fraction of funds controlled by green investors in our model empirically reasonable parameter estimates indicate that more than 20 green investors are required to induce any polluting firmss to reform existing empirical evidence indicates that at most 10 of funds are invested by green investors

on the aggregate welfare cost of great depression unemployment abstract the potential benefit of policies that eliminate a small likelihood of economic crises is calculated an economic crisis is defined as an increase in unemployment of the magnitude observed during the great depression for the u s the maximum likelihood estimate of entering a depression is found to be about once every 83 years the welfare gain from setting this small probability to zero can range between 1 and 7 of annual consumption in perpetuity for most estimates more than half of these large gains results from a reduction in individual consumption volatility

u s tax policy and health insurance demand can a regressive policy improve welfare abstract the u s tax policy on health insurance is regressive because it subsidizes only those offered group insurance through their employers who also tend to have a relatively high income moreover the subsidy takes the form of deductions from the progressive income tax system giving high income earners a larger subsidy to understand the effect of the policy we construct a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogenous agents and an endogenous demand for health insurance a complete removal of the subsidy may lead to a partial collapse of the group insurance market reduce the insurance coverage and deteriorate welfare there is however room for improving the coverage and welfare by extending a refundable credit to the individual insurance market

public health insurance individual health and entry into self employment we investigate the impact of a differential treatment of paid employees versus self employed workers in a public health insurance system on the entry rate into self employment health insurance systems that distinguish between the two sectors of employment create incentives or disincentives to start a business for different individuals we estimate a discrete time hazard rate model of entry into self employment based on representative household panel data for germany which include individual health information the results indicate that an increase in the health insurance cost differential between self employed workers and paid employees by 10 per month decreases the probability of entry into self employment by 1 7 of the annual entry rate this shows that entrepreneurship lock which an emerging literature describes for the system of employer provided health insurance in the usa can also occur in a public health insurance system therefore entrepreneurial activity should be taken into account when discussing potential health care reforms

full reserve banking more cranks than brave heretics this paper analyses the main features and policy implications of full reserve banking frb proposals it argues that whilst frb advocates recognize the essential endogeneity of the money creation process they have failed to understand the post keynesian and monetary circuitist analyses of endogenous money which leads them to analytical errors including lending activity creates seigniorage privilege for commercial banks inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon the inability of distinguishing the actual from the planned supply of bank loans and money to be spent from money hoarded and the debt free money proposition the paper also argues that an frb system is likely to exacerbate financial instability for several reasons including the obsessive focus on commercial banks while ignoring non bank financial intermediaries and shadow banking a blind fascination for the safety and security of the payment system with little consideration for the financing needs of capitalist economies and an inherent deflationary bias furthermore frb arrangements would soon be undermined by the development of alternative near moneys finally frb will nullify the automatic stabilisers of fiscal policy and lead to a de facto dominance of monetary policy and unelected central bankers over fiscal policy and democratic decision making

household search and the aggregate labor market we develop a theoretical model with labour market frictions incomplete financial markets and with households which have two members households face unemployment risks but their members adjust their labour supplies to insure against unemployment we use the model to explain the cyclical properties of aggregate employment and participation as in the u s data the model predicts that the participation rate the fraction of individuals that want jobs is not strongly correlated with aggregate economic activity this property is in sharp contrast to the strongly procyclical participation predicted by both neoclassical models and models with search frictions when we assume bachelor households or households with infinitely many members complete markets in the two member household model and in the data primary earners are always in the labour force secondary earners have a mildly countercyclical participation rate and a mildly procyclical employment rate their behaviour insures the household against unemployment risks

health care reform or more affordable health care this article investigates the impact on the u s economy of making health care more affordable we compare health care cost reductions with the patient protection and affordable care act aca using a rich life cycle general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents we evaluate a wide range of cost reductions ranging from 0 64 realistic and feasible to 29 5 equivalence with oecd our results show that the aca is more effective in reducing uninsured population than all cost reductions considered this result holds throughout the life cycle and for the most fragile part of the population the poorest the less educated and those with bad health realistic and feasible cost reductions are less welfare improving than the aca the increase of welfare induced by the reform is around 7 8 times higher than the increase provided by cost reductions besides the poorer are more benefited than the richer after the reform while the opposite occurs after cost reductions finally to obtain the same welfare increase of the aca medical costs have to decrease by 5 21 a very hard task these results provide support for the aca against opponents who might present cost reductions as alternatives

effective tax rates in macroeconomics cross country estimates of tax rates on factor incomes and consumption abstract this paper proposes a method for computing tax rates using national accounts and revenue statistics using this method we construct time series of tax rates for large industrial countries the method identifies the revenue raised by different taxes at the general government level and defines aggregate measures of the corresponding tax bases this method yields estimates of effective tax rates on factor incomes and consumption consistent with the tax distortions faced by a representative agent in a general equilibrium framework these tax rates compare favorably with existing estimates of marginal tax rates and highlight important international differences in tax policy

a response to critiques of full reserve banking in this response to critiques of full reserve banking or sovereign money proposals we challenge four of the main criticisms made by fontana and sawyer this issue i the impact of the proposal on government finances and fiscal policy ii the impact of the proposal on the supply of credit to the real economy iii the danger of private money creation re emerging in the shadow banking sector and iv the argument that shadow banking not commercial banking is the real source of financial instability

identification of job lock and inefficient labor market mobility the common practice of linking employment with certain fringe benefits notably health insurance has long been thought to impede labor market mobility thereby producing a phenomenon called job lock a sizable literature has developed theoretical frameworks for how job lock impacts the labor market and empirically estimated the magnitudes of these effects however most empirical studies rely on identification strategies that do not separately identify productivity enhancing from productivity reducing labor market mobility this article develops a simple theoretical framework showing how prior identification strategies confound both types of mobility and outlines conditions where productivity reducing mobility is of greatest concern

the real effects of sustainable responsible investing abstract sustainable and responsible investing sri may have a mixed effect on firms incentives to remove negative externalities whereas sri screening incentivizes the removal of externalities sri trading can disincentivize it when traders disagree on the externality removal s cash flow effects

insurance and opportunities a welfare analysis of labor market risk abstract using a model with constant relative risk aversion preferences endogenous labor supply and partial insurance against idiosyncratic wage risk this paper provides an analytical characterization of three welfare effects a the welfare effect of a rise in wage dispersion b the welfare gain from completing markets and c the welfare effect from eliminating risk the analysis reveals an important trade off for these welfare calculations on the one hand higher wage uncertainty increases the cost associated with missing insurance markets on the other hand greater wage dispersion presents opportunities to raise aggregate productivity by concentrating market work among more productive workers welfare effects can be expressed in terms of the underlying parameters defining preferences and wage risk or alternatively in terms of changes in observable second moments of the joint distribution over individual wages consumption and hours

health insurance reform the impact of a medicare buy in abstract the steady state general equilibrium and welfare consequences of a medicare buy in program optional for those aged 55 64 is evaluated in a calibrated life cycle economy with incomplete markets incomplete markets and adverse selection create a potential welfare improving role for health insurance reform we find that adverse selection eliminates any market for a medicare buy in if it is offered as an unsubsidized option to individual private health insurance the subsidy needed to bring the number of uninsured to less than 5 percent of the target population could be financed by an increase in the labor income tax rate of just 0 03 0 18 percent depending on how the program is implemented

household heterogeneity and the transmission of foreign shocks abstract we study the role of heterogeneity in the transmission of foreign shocks we build a heterogeneous agent new keynesian small open model economy hanksome that experiences a current account reversal households portfolio composition and the extent of foreign currency borrowing are key determinants of the magnitude of the contraction in consumption associated with a sudden stop in capital inflows the contraction is more severe when households are leveraged and owe debt in foreign currency in this setting the revaluation of foreign debt causes a larger contraction in aggregate consumption when debt and leverage are concentrated among poorer households closing the output gap via an exchange rate devaluation may therefore be detrimental to household welfare due to the heterogeneous impact of the foreign debt revaluation our hanksome framework can rationalize the observed fear of floating in emerging market economies even in the absence of contractionary devaluations

how important is intra household risk sharing for savings and labor supply abstract while it is recognized that the family is a risk sharing institution little is known about the quantitative effects of this source of insurance on savings and labor supply in this paper we present a model where workers females and males are subject to idiosyncratic employment risk and where capital markets are incomplete a household is formed by a female and a male who decide on consumption savings and labor supplies in a calibrated version of our model we find that intra household risk sharing has its largest impact among wealth poor households while the wealth rich use mainly savings to smooth consumption across unemployment spells wealth poor households rely on spousal labor supply for instance for low wealth households average hours worked by wives of unemployed husbands are 8 higher than those worked by wives of employed husbands this response in wives hours makes up 9 of lost family income we also study consumption losses upon an unemployment spell precautionary savings and the crowding out effects of the public unemployment insurance program on the extent of risk sharing within the household

incomplete markets labor supply and capital accumulation we explore the accumulation of capital in the presence of limited insurance against idiosyncratic shocks borrowing constraints and endogenous labor supply in the exogenous labor supply case e g aiyagari 1994 huggett 1997 the presence of limited insurance increases the demand for savings for precautionary reasons as a consequence capital and output are higher under incomplete markets we show that if labor hours are endogenous labor supply is likely to be lower under incomplete markets because those agents who experience a high shock to productivity are ex post richer and they work fewer hours in some cases this wealth effect can overcome the aggregate precautionary savings and give rise to lower savings and output under incomplete

asset returns with transactions costs and uninsured individual risk abstract we explore whether incorporating an explicit motive for holding liquid assets within an equilibrium asset pricing model helps explain the following features of asset returns and turnover in the post war u s economy i the low risk free real interest rate ii the large spread between returns on liquid assets and stocks and iii the greater transaction velocity of liquid assets relative to stocks we introduce a demand for liquid assets by adding uninsured individual risk together with differential costs of trading securities numerical simulations attempting to match the return data generate a ratio of liquid assets to income considerably below observed levels

capital market equilibrium with externalities production and heterogeneous agents abstract the paper studies general equilibrium in an economy with externalities production and heterogeneous agents the model developed builds on brock brock w a 1982 asset prices in a production economy in mccall j j ed the economics of information and uncertainty university of chicago press chicago pp 1 43 and merton merton r c 1987 a simple model of capital market equilibrium with incomplete information journal of finance 42 483 510 it involves both a stock market and a market for loans together with negative externalities produced by a subset of firms importantly the technological production structure of the firms is reflected in the properties of the shares traded in the stock market agents are heterogeneous in their financial choices potentially discriminating against the firms producing a negative externality the model sheds light on the utility costs of the discriminating behavior and on the impact on the price of the stock issued by the firm which is responsible for the externality the model is used to study the factors which may magnify or reduce the impact of discrimination a set of discriminated firms may be seriously affected only if the discriminating investors command a large portion of overall wealth and or they do not represent important diversification instruments the model can be applied to understanding the effects of socially responsible investment whereby investors discriminate against companies belonging to some sectors which are perceived as socially dangerous or unethical

the environmental and macroeconomic effects of socially responsible investment abstract we analyze the effects of socially responsible investment and public abatement on environmental quality and the economy in a continuous time dynamic growth model featuring optimizing households and firms environmental quality is modeled as a renewable resource consumers can invest in government bonds or firm equity since investors feel partly responsible for environmental pollution when holding firm equity they require a premium on the return to equity we show that socially responsible investment behavior by households partially offsets the positive effects on environmental quality of public abatement policies

the impact of employer provided health insurance on dynamic employment transitions we estimate the impact of employer provided health insurance ephi on the job mobility of males over time using a dynamic empirical model that accounts for unobserved heterogeneity previous studies of job lock reach different conclusions about possible distortions in labor mobility stemming from an employment based health insurance system a few authors find no evidence of job lock although most find reductions in the mobility of insured workers of between 20 and 40 percent we use data from the national longitudinal survey of youth which includes variables describing the health insurance an individual holds as well as whether he is offered insurance by his employer this additional information allows us to model the latent individual characteristics that are correlated with the offer of ephi the acceptance of ephi and employment transitions our results provide an estimate of job lock unbiased through correlation with positive job characteristics and individual specific turnover propensity we find no evidence of job lock among married males and produce small estimates of job lock among unmarried males of between 10 and 15 percent

on the costs of food price fluctuations in low income countries abstract conventional welfare measures of the costs of food price fluctuations in low income countries are extended to allow for both economic growth and food security effects the analysis reveals that growth and food security effects may dominate more conventional welfare costs of food price fluctuations although estimating the empirical magnitude of the effects is hampered by the lack of consensus on the extent to which food price fluctuations actually reduce economic growth and food security even if the welfare costs of food price fluctuations are high there are many challenges to the design and successful implementation of price stabilization schemes

the effects of health insurance and self insurance on retirement behavior this paper provides an empirical analysis of the effects of employer provided health insurance medicare and social security on retirement behavior using data from the health and retirement study we estimate a dynamic programming model of retirement that accounts for both saving and uncertain medical expenses our results suggest that medicare is important for understanding retirement behavior and that uncertainty and saving are both important for understanding the labor supply responses to medicare half the value placed by a typical worker on his employer provided health insurance is the value of reduced medical expense risk raising the medicare eligibility age from 65 to 67 leads individuals to work an additional 0 074 years over ages 60 69 in comparison eliminating 2 years worth of social security benefits increases years of work by 0 076 years

insurance and opportunities the welfare implications of rising wage dispersion this paper develops a series of heterogeneous agents economies in order to characterize analytically the welfare implications of changes in the uncertainty in individual labor productivity we perform two types of welfare calculations first we compute the welfare consequences of a rise in labor market risk given a particular asset market structure complete markets incomplete markets autarky second we compute the expected gain from completing markets starting from autarky or incomplete markets for a given level of wage dispersion we are able to derive intuitive closed form expressions for these welfare eects which depend only on preference parameters and the size of the change in wage dispersion a higher level of productivity dispersion has always two eects it tends to reduce welfare in presence of partial insurance but it also tends to improve production opportunities in presence of flexible labor supply we can separate analytically the insurance and the opportunity components we quantify the welfare consequences of the rise in wage inequality observed in the united states over the past three decades as roughly 3 of lifetime consumption moreover we calculate that completing the asset markets given the current level of inequality would lead to a welfare improvement equivalent to 35 of lifetime consumption

every catholic child in a catholic school historical resistance to state schooling contemporary private competition and student achievement across countries nineteenth century catholic doctrine strongly opposed state schooling we show that countries with larger shares of catholics in 1900 but without a catholic state religion tend to have larger shares of privately operated schools even today we use this historical pattern as a natural experiment to estimate the causal effect of contemporary private competition on student achievement in cross country student level analyses our results show that larger shares of privately operated schools lead to better student achievement in mathematics science and reading and to lower total education spending even after controlling for current catholic shares

employment based health insurance and job mobility is there evidence of job lock the majority of privately insured americans obtain their health insurance through their own or a family member s employment the rationale for employers to provide health insurance is straightforward by pooling the risks of individuals employers can reduce adverse selection and lower administrative expenses in addition they benefit from tax laws allowing businesses to deduct their health insurance costs these advantages of employer provision however must be weighed against the distortions they may generate in individual labor market decisions in particular health insurance may distort job mobility if employees decide to keep jobs they would rather leave for fear of losing coverage for preexisting conditions a possibility that has been termed job lock this paper attempts to quantify the effect of employer provided health insurance on the labor market mobility of individuals the link between employer provided health insurance and

endogenous market incompleteness with investment risks abstract this paper studies a general equilibrium economy in which agents have the ability to invest in a risky technology the investment risk cannot be fully insured with optimal contracts because shocks are private information we show that the presence of investment risks lead to under accumulation of capital relative to an economy where idiosyncratic shocks can be fully insured we also show that the availability of state contingent optimal contracts compared to simple debt contracts brings the aggregate stock of capital close to the complete markets level institutional reforms that make possible the use of these contracts have important welfare consequences

some puzzles about money finance and the monetary circuit this paper discusses three puzzles about money and finance having to do with the velocity of circulation the marxian concept of the monetary circuit and the deceptively simple question of whether there is enough money in existence at any point in time to purchase the full value of output these issues take on particular significance at times of economic and financial crisis but have often been neglected by the mainstream of the economics profession leaving the field to keynes s brave heretics

labor supply elasticity and social security reform abstract previous literature on social security reform has used a variety of period utility functions and calibrated values for the intertemporal elasticity of substitution ies in labor in this paper we show that the effects of social security reforms on aggregate labor supply are invariant to plausible values of the ies but the effect of such reforms on the profile of hours over the life cycle is highly sensitive to the ies we first establish these results analytically in a simple partial equilibrium setting and then demonstrate their robustness in a general equilibrium model calibrated to match key u s macroeconomic indicators we find that the aggregate effects are similar regardless of the wide range of the values of ies used in calibrated economies however social security reform leads to a large reallocation of hours worked over the life cycle from early years to later working years and the size of this reallocation significantly increases with the ies

the welfare cost of inflation under imperfect insurance abstract this paper examines the welfare cost of inflation in an economy where agents hold money in order to smooth consumption in the face of income variability for which there is no insurance the findings indicate that for the type of economies considered here the area under the empirical money demand curve is a poor measure of the welfare cost of inflation this area accounts for only one fourth of the true costs in the case of 5 inflation

health insurance and job mobility theoryand evidence it is widely hypothesized that health insurance deters job mobility because of imperfections in the labor and health insurance markets this paper describes the nature of the welfare loss attributable to such job lock and reviews several studies that empirically test the job lock hypothesis the authors find that estimates of the magnitude and importance of job lock vary studies that support the job lock hypothesis typically report a 20 to 40 reduction in mobility rates depending on worker marital status and gender their own estimates suggest that although job lock is present in the labor market the proportion of workers affected and the magnitude of the welfare loss are less than generally supposed

two separated effects of employer provided health insurance on job mobility we estimate the effect of employer provided health insurance ephi on job mobility via a dynamic model of joint employment and health insurance decision in the presence of uncertainty about wage rate and health status transitions the model is based on a markov decision process in which a hedonic wage approach provides an economic rationale for the different choices and health insurance serves as an input to the health production process including health transitions in the model helps us to understand how the availability of ephi positive job characteristic and holding ephi the wage health insurance trade off enter into the individuals decisions the model is estimated using the 1999 2000 medical expenditure panel survey panel 4 and the results show that the pure effects of holding ephi are negligible the full effects of ephi are significant and the degrees of the inefficiency vary between 14 and 25 across different states

the effects of employer provided health insurance on worker mobility the authors use data from the 1984 survey of income and program participation sipp to investigate whether employer provided health insurance reduced worker mobility a phenomenon termed job lock the sipp provides information on variables particularly pension receipt job tenure and spouse job change that were omitted from previous studies and are the authors argue key to the estimation of welldefined mobility models for dual earner married men and women the authors estimate a model that accounts for the interaction between husbands and wives job change decisions for both married and single individuals the results provide fairly strong evidence ofjob lock among women but only weak indications of job lock among men the authors speculate that this finding reflects higher health care use by women than by men

towards an accounting view on money banking and the macroeconomy history empirics theory in this paper three views are considered which are traditionally associated with money cranks and brave heretics the first is that the credit nature of money has macroeconomic significance the second is that financial development can be bad for economic growth the third is that macroeconomic models need to be explicitly monetary macroeconomic models it is argued that in each of these three areas there has been a recent shift in mainstream economic opinion this suggests new opportunities for meaningful debate between heterodox and orthodox schools on money and finance it is further argued following skaggs 2003 that a common meeting ground could be an accounting view of economics this is a mode of macroeconomic analysis which explicitly uses accounting definitions identities that credit is also debt or that flows of a variable affect the stock of that variable or accounting methods e g decomposing different kinds of liabilities or linking flows of liquidity to flows of transactions to structure and direct the analysis the accounting view is highly pluralist yet clearly defined i discuss its applications to each of the three views

the effects of taxes and dividend policy on capital accumulation and macroeconomic behavior abstract this paper analyzes the macrodynamic effects of changes in various tax rates in an intertemporal optimizing framework two aspects emphasized include the role of dividend policy and the behavior of the stock market both permanent and temporary tax changes are considered with the transitional adjustment paths being characterized in detail the contrast between the short run and long run effects is highlighted in particular an increase in any of the tax rates will cause short run employment to fall and with the capital stock fixed instantaneously the capital labor ratio immediately rises over time as the capital stock declines the capital labor ratio falls

an equilibrium model of health insurance provision and wage determination we investigate the effect of employer provided health insurance on job mobility rates and economic welfare using a search matching and bargaining framework in our model health insurance coverage decisions are made in a cooperative manner that recognizes the productivity effects of health insurance as well as its nonpecuniary value to the employee the resulting equilibrium is one in which not all employment matches are covered by health insurance wages at jobs providing health insurance are larger in a stochastic sense than those at jobs without health insurance and workers at jobs with health insurance are less likely to leave those jobs even after conditioning on the wage rate we estimate the model using the 1996 panel of the survey of income and program participation and find that the employer provided health insurance system does not lead to any serious inefficiencies in mobility decisions

cost of business cycles with indivisibilities and liquidity constraints it is almost universally agreed that individuals face incomplete insurance markets and cannot perfectly insure against the idiosyncratic risk in this paper simple general equilibrium models with incomplete insurance markets are examined in order to assess the impact of imperfect insurance on the magnitude of the welfare costs of business cycles two versions of incomplete insurance markets are considered and certain statistical properties of the equilibrium stochastic processes in these environments are compared with those of a perfect insurance economy

the risk free rate in heterogeneous agent incomplete insurance economies abstract why has the average real risk free interest rate been less than one percent the question is motivated by the failure of a class of calibrated representative agent economies to explain the average return to equity and risk free debt i construct an economy where agents experience uninsurable idiosyncratic endowment shocks and smooth consumption by holding a risk free asset i calibrate the economy and characterize equilibria computationally with a borrowing constraint of one year s income the resulting risk free rate is more than one percent below the rate in the comparable representative agent economy

tax subsidy policies in the presence of environmentally aware consumers abstract we study policy measures to improve environmental quality in the presence of environmentally aware consumers we consider two sets of policy instruments uniform policies for the firms and policies that discriminate between the firms based on their environmental quality for the latter set either the better performer is rewarded with a subsidy or the worse performer is punished with a tax we find that while a uniform subsidy policy improves average environmental quality a uniform tax policy worsens it further while a discriminatory subsidy policy reduces total pollution and enhances aggregate welfare a discriminatory tax policy may increase total pollution and may reduce aggregate welfare

information constrained insurance the revelation principle extended abstract private information induced incentive constraints can cause allocations to diverge from full information optimal allocations often in the direction of limited insurance but can bring unanticipated anomalies related plausible contract exclusion restrictions can be damaging in welfare terms more generally private information optimal allocations can be sensitive to the information structure suggesting that the latter be specified with an eye toward realism as well as tractability in an effort to make tractability less of a constraint the paper shows how two apparently difficult information structures a costly state verification environment and a multiperiod multilateral private information environment can be handled theoretically by revelation principle methods the paper also shows how solutions can be generated numerically

on the welfare cost of economic fluctuations in developing countries macroeconomic fluctuations are much stronger in developing countries than in the united states yet while a large literature debates the welfare cost of economic fluctuations in the united states it remains an open question how large that cost is in developing countries using several models we provide such a measure we find that the welfare cost of consumption volatility per se is far from trivial and averages a substantial multiple of the corresponding u s estimate moreover in many poor countries the welfare gain from eliminating volatility may in fact exceed the welfare gain from an additional percentage point of growth forever

seigniorage as a tax a quantitative evaluation in this paper we construct a computable general equilibrium model calibrate it to selected data for the american economy and use it to explore the efficacy of the seigniorage tax associated with various monetary arrangements we find that the key feature of any monetary tax arrangement is its equilibrium after tax real return schedule on liquid assets held by the households we also find that considerable seigniorage which we define to be the diserence between government expenditures other than interest paid on government debt and taxes collected can be large we find that the seigniorage tax is a poor one relative to a tax on labor income ln particular we find that if the after tax real return on saving deposits is 5 percent as it was on average in the 1974 1978 period welfare is one half percent of consumption lower than it would be if the after tax real return were zero as it approximately was in both the 1964 1968 and 19841988 periods the work builds on that of a imrohoroglu 1990 who finds that for worlds in which non interest bearing nominal assets are the only liquid assets the cost of constant inflation is far greater than the area under the empirical demand for money relation with such arrangements the after tax real return is the negative of the inflation rate the key feature of her model is that agents hold money in order to smooth consumption in the face of idiosyncratic income variability for which there

an overlapping generations model of growth and the environment this article analyzes the potential conflict between economic growth and the maintenance of environmental quality in an overlapping generations model short lived individuals make decisions which have long lasting effects on both factor productivity and the environment the model provides a theoretical explanation of observed correlations between environmental quality and income whereby economic growth is associated first with declines then improvements in environmental quality it suggests circumstances in which multiple pareto ranked steady state equilibria may arise and in which sustained growth of both capital and environmental quality may occur overmaintenance of the environment analogous to dynamically inefficient overaccumulation of capital may emerge copyright 1994 by royal economic society

government monetary and fiscal operations generalising the endogenous money approach the traditional endogenous money approach can be generalised substantially by including the insights of modern money theory regarding the necessary coordination of fiscal and monetary policies a monetarily sovereign government is composed of two entities involved in the issuance and redemption of government monetary instruments as such one should include the role of the treasury in monetary policy and the role of the central bank in fiscal policy the paper suggests a simple way to model that interaction shows some of the theoretical insights that can be drawn from that interaction and illustrates the relevance of that interaction with the monetary and fiscal practices of the us treasury and the federal reserve over the past century times of stress in the monetary system such as the recent great recession usually bring to light more forcefully this necessary interaction

the cost of business cycles under endogenous growth robert e lucas jr argued that the welfare gains from reducing aggregate consumption volatility are negligible subsequent work that revisited his calculation continued to find small welfare benefits further reinforcing the perception that business cycles do not matter this paper argues instead that fluctuations can affect welfare by affecting the growth rate of consumption i show that fluctuations can reduce growth starting from a given initial consumption which can imply substantial welfare effects as lucas himself observed empirical evidence suggests the welfare effects are likely to be substantial about two orders of magnitude greater than lucas original estimates

real returns on government debt a general equilibrium quantitative exploration we extend and apply computable general equilibrium methods to the study of economies with both aggregate uncertainty and uninsured household specific uncertainty in our economies the government issues two types of assets a small denomination non interest bearing asset which we call currency and a large denomination interest bearing asset which we call t bills we find that a real interest rate behavior similar to that observed in the u s can be sustained as equilibrium behavior in our class of economies we also find that policy induced real interest rate changes that are perceived as being permanent have significant real effects and that these effects take a few years to be fully realized

lost jobs and health insurance an analysis of the impact of employment volatility on firm provided health insurance it is an established fact that there are high levels of employment volatility in the us despite the importance of employer provided benefits in the us health insurance system the impact of prior job instability on one s future ability to obtain insurance coverage is not well understood this article finds a negative relationship between the volatility of a worker s employment and her likelihood of receiving firm provided health insurance previous employment volatility reduces each of the four factors necessary to receive such insurance a worker s subsequent chances of getting a job her chances of getting a job in a firm that offers coverage her chances of staying with the firm long enough to become eligible for coverage and her ability to take up insurance if offered the most important impact is on the last her ability to take up insurance if offered lack of employment is not the only and not even the largest barrier to individual coverage under this system this finding has important policy imp

interest rates in a credit constrained economy when households face credit constraints in an economy with inside as well as outside money stationary equilibrium real interest rates are below the household rate of time preference they also depend significantly upon household risk aversion the demand for inside versus outside money bank costs bank reserves inflation and the marginal productivity of capital and capital depreciation rates in addition changes in financial variables affect per capita capital and output to a greater extent when households are credit constrained copyright 1994 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

population aging health care and fiscal policy reform the challenges for japan we construct a transition analysis based on a general equilibrium life cycle model to investigate the effects of aging and we evaluate various policy alternatives designed to lessen the negative influence of aging in particular we analyze reforms of insurance benefits and tax financing tools that were recently the focus of a great amount of attention and debate in japan because of the tense financial situation there we show that although the potential reforms improve the welfare of future generations the political implementation of such reforms is difficult because of the large welfare costs for the current population our analysis suggests that a gradual reform with an intergenerational redistribution will be more politically implementable than an immediate reform