reassessing the impact of barriers to capital accumulation on international income differences can barriers to capital accumulation account for large differences in gdp per capita we reconsider the claim that these barriers have an amplified effect on income levels in a model where both modern and traditional sector technologies are active we show that this claim is not correct we do find however that the removal of barriers to capital accumulation can cause large changes in the employment shares of labor thus the model can account for an important stylized fact of the development process with labor moving from the traditional to the modern sector as income levels rise

estimating permanent income and wealth of the us farm households farm households are unique in the way they derive income when compared to nonfarm households farm operators and spouses have dual income sources from farm and off farm activities further farm households on an average possess higher wealth than nonfarm households this article estimates permanent income for the us farm households using data from a large national farm level survey the estimated income is then used to identify the determinants of wealth accumulation by the us farm households results confirm that permanent income is closely related to age of the operator education occupation farm size location and number of earners in the household along with age permanent income is a significant determinant of household wealth it was also found that the wealth income curve is nonlinear upward sloping and convex hausman s specification test indicates that variations in farm household wealth is better explained by estimated permanent income than observed total household income off farm income

some macroeconomics for the 21st century this note describes a numerical simulation of a model of economic growth a simplified version of robert tamura s 1996 model of world income dynamics based on technology diffusion the model makes predictions for trends in average world income growth and about the evolution of the relative income distribution that accord well with observation the model is used to forecast the course of world income growth and income inequality over the century to come

wealth accumulation over the life cycle and precautionary savings this article constructs and simulates a life cycle model of wealth accumulation and estimates the parameters of the utility function the rate of time preference and the coefficient of risk aversion by matching the simulated median wealth profiles with those observed in the panel study of income dynamics and in the survey of consumer finances the estimates imply a low degree of patience and a high degree of risk aversion the results are used to study the importance of precautionary savings in explaining wealth accumulation they imply that wealth accumulation is driven mostly by precautionary motives at the beginning of the life cycle whereas savings for retirement purposes become significant only closer to retirement

trade policy in a growth model with technology gap dynamics and simulations for south africa we extend an open economy ramsey model to include the technology gap to the world technology frontier the setting is a middle income country with productivity growth driven by technology adoption and foreign capital goods stimulating spillover and catching up the interaction of technology adoption and capital accumulation generates prolonged transition growth and strengthens the growth effect of increased openness model simulations reproduce the changing openness in south africa 1960 2005 international sanctions and protectionism are represented by a calibrated tariff equivalent and the counterfactual elimination of the tariff equivalent shows large potential for gdp growth according to our preferred parameterization increased trade share by 10 points raises gdp level over time by about 12 separating the effects of openness between investment and productivity we find that almost 60 of the increase in gdp is due to increased productivity partly because of interaction with higher investment

income risk and allocation of labour time an empirical investigation this study investigates the behaviour of risk averse farm operators in response to farm income and employment variability economic theory maintains that greater farm income variability should incr

relative prices and investment rates abstract we construct a panel for the price of aggregate investment over consumption and report the following observations 1 relative price differences across countries are large over the entire sample period and this conclusion is not affected by excluding non tradable consumption goods 2 relative price dispersion has decreased during the sample period 3 relative price changes are not persistent across periods while average price levels are moreover the persistence in relative price levels is higher for countries at low relative prices we show that the relative price of investment is negatively correlated with investment rates in a cross section of countries the standard one sector growth model is a natural framework to study quantitatively the effects of barriers to capital accumulation since there is a very simple mapping between barriers to investment and relative prices in this environment we simulate a calibrated version of the model in which barriers follow a stochastic process common to all countries and estimated using relative price data and obtain statistics for investment rates that closely resemble what we observe in the data in particular the model accounts for 90 of the 1985 gini index of relative investment rates and the decline in investment rate dispersion over time the model has two limitations as a theory of development first it cannot account for the income disparity in the data unless we assume unmeasured capital with barriers affecting the broad measure of capital second even under these extreme assumptions the model cannot account for the evolution of income disparity over time

the nature of precautionary wealth abstract this paper uses the panel study of income dynamics to provide some of the first direct evidence that wealth is systematically higher for consumers with predictably greater income uncertainty however the apparent pattern of precautionary wealth is not consistent with a standard parameterization of the life cucle model in which consumers are patient enough to begin saving for retirement early in life wealth is estimated to be far less sensitive to uncertainty than implied by that model instead our results suggest that over most of their working life time consumers behave in accordance with the buffer stock models of saving described in carroll 1992 1997 or deaton 1991 in which consumers hold wealth principally to insulate consumption against near term fluctuations in income

impact of off farm income on food expenditures in rural bangladesh an unconditional quantile regression approach this study examines the effects of off farm income on food expenditures of rural bangladeshi households our analysis yields unbiased estimates of the unconditional impact of off farm income on food expenditures and reveals the heterogeneous effects that occur across the distribution of total food consumption expenditures the findings suggest that the impacts of off farm income are uniformly positive across the unconditional quantile regression and significantly increase food consumption expenditures for all quantiles except for the 25th quantile in addition we found that schooling experience and location of the household increase the food expenditures of rural households most importantly this article argues that female headed rural households in which the female works off the farm tend to have significantly lower food expenditures

precautionary savings a panel study theoretical literature shows that income uncertainty boosts saving yet empirical work is incomplete i test for the precautionary motive for saving using panel data knowing this motive s size is important for gauging the responsiveness of saving to government programs that reduce uncertainty and for comparison to other motives such as bequests most empirical studies of precautionary saving use either aggregate time series or cross sectional data which cannot capture the effects of individual income uncertainty i derive measures of total permanent and transitory income uncertainty from panel data the national longitudinal survey and find a strong precautionary motive a doubling of uncertainty increases the ratio of wealth to permanent income by 29

how important are dual economy effects for aggregate productivity this paper brings together development accounting techniques and the dual economy model to address the role that factor markets have in creating variation in aggregate total factor productivity tfp development accounting research has shown that much of the variation in income across countries can be attributed to differences in tfp the dual economy model suggests that aggregate productivity is depressed by having too many factors allocated to low productivity work in agriculture data show large differences in marginal products of similar factors within many developing countries offering prima facie evidence of this misallocation using a simple two sector decomposition of the economy this article estimates the role of these misallocations in accounting for the cross country income distribution a key contribution is the ability to bring sector specific data on human and physical capital stocks to the analysis variation across countries in the degree of misallocation is shown to account for 30 40 of the variation in income per capita and up to 80 of the variation in aggregate tfp

inventory and investment in setup and quality operations under return on investment maximization in this paper we construct and analyze a return on investment roi maximization model for inventory and capital investment in setup and quality operations under an investment budget constraint specifically we show how such an roi maximization model can be formulated and derive analytical results such as the conditions under which the inventory is reduced and for the determination of the unique global optimal solution in addition by applying the reformulation linearization technique rlt we show via numerical examples how this nonconvex optimization model can be solved effectively and how rlt may produce superior results to those from the conventional cut across the board rule cabr various managerial insights are provided throughout the paper for example as the investment budget increases or decreases a fundamental shift of investment strategies setup cost reduction vs quality improvement may be necessary so as to maximize roi

workers machines and economic growth this paper models technology adoption as replacing workers by machines which perform the same job in the production process the paper shows that such modelling of technology adoption affects significantly the analysis of economic growth this model can explain large and persistent international differences in output levels and growth rates caused by small differences in underlying parameters

off farm labor supply responses to permanent and transitory farm income a sample of iowa farm couples is used to evaluate whether off farm labor supply decisions respond to permanent and transitory components of farm income off farm labor supply of both spouses declines in response to increases in permanent farm income farm wives also reduce off farm labor supply in response to positive transitory farm income shocks consequently one mechanism farm households use to smooth their goods consumption when facing fluctuating farm income is to modify their consumption of leisure ability to smooth goods consumption does not imply the absence of liquidity constraints among farm households unless leisure consumption is also smoothed

permanent household income and consumption in urban south america milton friedman s permanent income hypothesis pih is considerably more complex and difficult to test than it appears at first sight which is why certain of its postulates still cannot be accepted or rejected with certainty one of the chief difficulties is that of separating the effects on consumption of permanent income which is unobservable and of various observable household characteristics which may be highly correlated with permanent income but may also be presumed to affect consumption directly this difficulty can be overcome provided a variable can be found which is associated with permanent income but has no independent direct effect on the propensity to consume if households are grouped by classes of that variable the permanent consumption propensity or elasticity can be estimated from mean income and consumption in the groups this technique requires the assumption of zero mean transitory income in each group but does not depend on the postulate that transitory income is uncorrelated with consumption for these reasons it cannot be applied to individual households this paper presents and estimates a model which separates the direct and indirect effects on consumption of a series of observable characteristics using regression techniques on individual household observations this makes it possible to estimate all the parameters of the model both the consumption propensity or elasticity and the contribution to permanent income of each observable explanatory variable the technique still requires that at least one of the explanatory variables affect consumption only through permanent income but for all other variables both direct and indirect influences can be estimated and the propensity to consume a given income can vary among households with different characteristics another principal problem with the pih is the assumption that transitory income and consumption are uncorrelated efforts to test this postulate can lead to very different results ranging from agreement with the hypothesis to findings of high propensities to consume transitory income see robert ferber pp 1306 09 this inconsistency and continued controversy over the hypothesis is due to the fact that permanent income cannot be estimated exactly but can be known only with an error which is conceptually distinct from transitory income empirical work on the pih has uniformly overlooked this fact treating estimates of permanent income as exact and regarding the whole of the unexplained residual as transitory income the present model explicitly distinguishes the estimation error from the error of transitory income or consumption the two transitory components can then be assumed to be uncorrelated while the part of permanent income which is not explained is consumed exactly like the explained part whether residual income and consumption appear to be correlated or not then depends on the relative sizes of these two components the unexplained permanent part and the true transitory part this technique has the further advantage that estimating the variance of the error of estimation makes it possible to tell how well a set of observable variables explain permanentincome this explanation may be better than the brookings institution robert solow richard eckaus and robert hall supervised the dissertation 1974 on which this article is based i am particularly grateful to ross williams and robert hall for help in specifying and estimating the model and to denisard alves for a crucial suggestion william cline irwin friend ricardo ffrench davis and robert ferber provided helpful comments on earlier versions subsequent discussions with surjit bhalla and robert lawrence have been most useful i am also much indebted to the managing editor and to a referee for improvements in the final version

preservation technology investment for deteriorating inventory abstract the objective of this study is to develop a deteriorating inventory policy when the retailer invests on the preservation technology to reduce the rate of product deterioration a solution procedure is presented to determine an optimal replenishment cycle shortage period order quantity and preservation technology cost such that the total profit per unit time is maximized a numerical example and sensitivity analysis are presented to illustrate the model

the impact of budget deficits on national saving in the usa this paper analyses the effect of government budget deficits on national saving in the usa utilizing annual time series data from 1967 to 1996 a model that includes budget deficits money supply real exchange rate real interest rate and the proportion of working age population to total population to explain national saving is developed after examining the time series properties of the data an error correction model is estimated the overall results suggest that an increase in government budget deficits tend to reduce national saving the working age population coming out of the baby boom generation has positively contributed to an increase in national saving

homework in development economics household production and the wealth of nations we introduce home production into the neoclassical growth model and examine its consequences for development economics in particular we study the extent to which one can account for international income differences with differences in policies that distort capital accumulation in models with home production such policies not only reduce capital accumulation but also change the mix of market and nonmarket activity hence these models can generate larger differences in output than standard models for a given policy differential we also show how the welfare implications change when we incorporate home production

start up costs limited enforcement and the hidden economy abstract this paper examines how much of the difference in the size of the informal sector and in per capita income across countries can be accounted by regulation costs and enforcement of financial contracts it constructs and solves numerically a general equilibrium model with credit constrained heterogenous agents occupational choices over formal and informal businesses financial frictions and a government sector which imposes taxes and regulations on formal firms the benefit from formalization is better access to outside finance the quantitative exercises suggest that i regulation costs and not the level of enforcement account for differences in the size of the informal sector between united states and mediterranean europe ii for a developing country like peru however contract enforcement and regulation costs are equally important in accounting for the size of the informal sector and iii regulation costs and contract enforcement do not account for most of the income differences observed among countries

limited enforcement financial intermediation and economic development a quantitative assessment we present a model of economic development where the importance of financial differences caused by limited enforcement can be measured economies where enforcement is poor direct less capital to the production sector and employ less efficient technologies calibrated simulations reveal that the resulting effect on output is large furthermore the model correctly predicts that the average scale of production should rise with the quality of enforcement finally we find that the importance of limited enforcement rises with the importance of capital in production

wealth weather risk and the composition and profitability of agricultural investments despite the growing evidence that farmers in low income environments are risk averse there has been little empirical evidence on the importance of risk in shaping the actual allocation of production resources among farmers differentiated by wealth the authors use panel data on investments in rural india to examine how the composition of productive and nonproductive asset holdings varies across farmers with different levels of total wealth and across farmers facing different degrees of weather risk income variability is a prominent feature of the experience of rural agents in low income countries the authors report evidence based on measures of rainfall variability that the agricultural investment portfolio behavior of farmers in such settings reflects risk aversion due evidently to limitations on consumption soothing mechanisms such as crop insurance or credit markets the authors results suggest that uninsured weather risk is a significant cause of lower efficiency and lower average incomes a one standard deviation decrease in weather risk measured by the standard deviation of the timing of the rainy season would raise average profits by up to 35 percent among farmers in the lowest wealth quartile moreover rainfall variability induces a more unequal distribution of average incomes for a given distribution of wealth wealthier farmers are willing to absorb significant risk without giving up profits to reduce production risk smaller farmers have to invest their limited wealth in ways that reduce their exposure to risk at the cost of lower profit rates the authors found that at high levels of rainfall variability differences in rates of profit per unit of agricultural assets were similar across classes of wealth but over the sample range of rainfall variability these rates of profit were always higher for the poorer farmers than for the wealthier ones suggesting that the disadvantages of small farmers in risk diffusion are more than offset by their labor cost advantage

the multi item setup reduction investment allocation problem with continuous investment cost functions in this note we analyze investment priorities for setup reduction programs in a multi product system we provide an objective function transformation for the model developed by porteus porteus e l 1985 investing in reduced setups in the eoq model management sci 31 8 august 998 1010 that permits the use of marginal analysis in both the single and multiple item problems for the multiple item problem we show that managers should not reduce the setup for each product to its optimum in sequential order this is in contrast to recommendations found in the existing literature

farm income variability and the supply of off farm labor if farmers are risk averse greater farm income variability should increase off farm labor supply this effect is confirmed for a sample of kansas farmers off farm employment of farmers and their spouses is also found to be significantly influenced by farm experience off farm work experience farm size leverage efficiency and farm specific education in addition farm operators and spouses who receive significant income support through government farm programs are less likely to work off the farm this may suggest that policy changes reducing farm income support payments may increase off farm employment of farmers and their spouses

empirical age earnings profiles the human capital earnings function in which earnings are expressed as a quadratic in potential experience is probably the most widely accepted empirical specification in economics in spite of its widespread acceptance the human capital earnings function provides a very poor approximation of the true empirical relationship between earnings and experience the standard formulation understates early career earnings growth by about 30 50 and overstates midcareer growth by 20 50 however simple alternative specifications that fit the data are available

economic growth lessons from two centuries of american agriculture this paper reviews the growth experience of u s agriculture over the past two centuries in consonance with the view that growth is determined by the economic environment which consists of the available technology incentives constraints and institutions within this framework the implemented technology is determined jointly with the resource allocation the review covers the role played by resource endowment resource flow technical change and its factor bias and product demand it highlights the importance of the income elasticity of demand and the labor augmentation of the technical change the total factor productivity tfp was almost nil at the beginning of the nineteenth century increasing gradually to the point where it exhausted output growth in the latter part of the twentieth century this pattern is consistent with the postulate emerging from this framework where the tfp is endogenous and determined jointly with growth rather than determining it the more recent performance of u s agriculture is placed within a global perspective in order to generalize the discussion

off farm work and technical efficiency on u s dairies in this study we investigate the impact of an increase in farm households off farm work on technical efficiency te of u s dairies we present a theoretical framework that implies that an increase in farm household off farm work decreases te we use two nationally representative samples of u s dairies 2010 and 2005 agricultural resource management surveys and a parametric approach stochastic frontier analysis to empirically test the hypothesis results are generally consistent with the hypothesis and show that an increase in off farm work by the farm household is associated with a significant decrease in te in addition results show that there is a statistically significant difference in te between small medium and large farms small farms are associated with significantly higher off farm work and have lower te than large farms which implies that less off farm work by households with larger farms is at least partially responsible for the evidence of economies of scale in the u s dairy industry

skill complementarity and the dual economy abstract i propose a new explanation for the large productivity gaps between agriculture and nonagriculture observed in developing countries namely that the elasticity of substitution between skilled and unskilled workers is higher in agriculture than in nonagriculture i estimate the elasticities in a cross country data set and use the results to simulate a simple two sector model in which heterogeneous elasticities of substitution affect relative sectoral productivity levels through the allocation of human capital calibrated to match data from the united states the model predicts sizable agricultural productivity gaps in countries where the share of highly educated workers in the labor force is low

which utilization and service level lead to the maximum eva abstract in this paper a model for evaluating the influence of utilization wip fgi service level and production lead time on eva economic value added is developed in order to link the available logistical key figures with a market perspective and discuss their influence on company value the question answered in this paper is what is the optimal utilization and service level of a production system in order to achieve the maximum possible eva for a company a single product single machine make to order production system with investment dependent machine capacity is modeled the model combines a market share concept based on delivery production lead time and service level with concepts describing the logistical relationships between wip utilization production lead time and service level in addition to the explanatory use of the model it can provide support for strategic decisions concerning investing or divesting machinery the main application of this model is in describing the link between capacity investment and company value comprehensively based on data available from cost accounting in real companies furthermore this paper shows that high flexibility of personnel and machine capacity increases the maximum possible eva of production systems even if this flexibility is linked to additional costs

government production of investment goods and aggregate labor productivity abstract in this paper i estimate the impact on aggregate labor productivity of having government rather than private industry produce investment goods this policy was pursued to varying degrees by egypt india and turkey among others the policy has a large impact because there is both a direct effect it lowers productivity in the investment sector and a secondary effect it lowers the economy wide capital stock per worker i estimate that this policy alone reduced egypt s aggregate productivity by 30 and accounted for 20 of egypt s aggregate labor productivity gap with the united states during the 1960s

using weather variability to estimate the response of savings to transitory income in thailand this paper measures the extent to which farmers are able to use savings and dissavings to smooth consumption in response to unexpected shocks to income time series information on regional rainfall is used to construct estimates of transitory income due to rainfall shocks the relationship between these measures of transitory income and savings indicates that farm households save a significantly higher fraction of transitory income than nontransitory income jel d91 016 the incomes of farm households in developing countries are notorious for being both low and uncertain policies that increase the incomes of farmers may well be different

education and income growth implications for cross country inequality this paper examines the extent to which patterns of human capital convergence can account for observed patterns of income inequality between countries to do this i decompose national income into three components one due to education levels one reflecting the return to education and a residual component i then examine in turn the contribution of each of them to changes in income dispersion among the developed countries convergence in education levels has resulted in a reduction in income dispersion however for the world as a whole incomes have diverged despite substantial convergence in education levels this is a result of increases in the return to education that favor the developed countries at the expense of the less developed countries

how much do distortions affect growth abstract this paper presents a simple endogenous growth model with two types of capital which can display sizeable long run growth effects of distortionary policies the model applies to many different types of distortions of relative prices common in developing countries such as differential taxes and tariffs black market exchange rates and price controls the model shows that a subsidy to one type of capital financed by a tax on another capital good lowers growth a measure of the variance of relative prices of investment goods across sectors has a negative and statistically significant effect on growth

investing in reduced setups in the eoq model this paper is motivated by the observation that the japanese have devoted much time and energy to decreasing setup costs in their manufacturing processes and that there has been little in the way of a formal framework available to use to think about such efforts the object of this paper is to begin to provide such a framework the framework developed identifies only one aspect of the advantages of reducing setups namely reduced inventory related operating costs the other advantages such as improved quality control flexibility and increased effective capacity are not accounted for in this paper nevertheless substantial reductions in setups may be warranted based solely on the benefits identified in this paper the approach taken here introduces an investment cost associated with changing the current setup level and adds a per unit time amortization of this cost to the other costs identified in the standard eoq model the general problem becomes that of minimizing the sum of a convex and a concave function in two special cases the minimization can be carried out explicitly in one of these cases numerous interpretations of the results are made including comparisons of japanese and american practices for example holding other parameters constant there is a critical sales level such that investment is made in reducing setups if and only if the sales rate is above that level when such investment is made the optimal lot size is independent of the sales rate the paper also addresses the joint selection of the setup cost and the sales rate selection of the sales rate is seen as incorporating explicit production and holding costs into the classical monopolist s pricing problem an explicit solution is obtained for the model postulated

saving in developing countries theory and review in the literature on economic development much of the interest in saving has been focused on the relation between saving and growth but saving is not only about accumulation it is about smoothing consumption in the face of volatile and unpredictable income and helping to ensure the living standards of poor people whose lives are difficult and uncertain this paper develops a model of households which cannot borrow but which accumulate assets as a buffer stock to protect consumption when incomes are low such households dissave as often as they save do not accumulate assets over the long term and have on average very small asset holdings but their consumption is markedly smoother than their income much of the evidence is as consistent with this view of saving as it is incosistent with standard views of smoothing over the life cycle and with explanations of the link between saving and growth in terms of life cycle saving behavior consumption smoothing is also a useful way of thinking about government policy where volatility in the world prices of taxed commodities can generate sharp fluctuations in government revenues as well as reallocations of revenue between the private and public sectors many important policy issues in developing countries hinge on issues of consumption and smoothing and research on these issues is currently likely to be more productive than work on the relation between saving and growth

barriers to capital accumulation and aggregate total factor productivity i develop a growth model where a single good can be produced with a traditional and a modern technology the traditional technology features low total factor productivity tfp and a low share of reproducible capital in this framework barriers to capital accumulation affect technology use and therefore aggregate tfp the theory thus connects recent models of factor accumulation and of tfp the model is calibrated by interpreting traditional production as agriculture and nonreproducible capital as land the theory implies that barriers are associated with large agricultural shares as supported by cross country and time series evidence the required tfp differences needed in the model to account for a given income disparity are reduced by 1 2 relative to the standard model that abstracts from technology choice

world product and income international comparisons of real gross product the volume reports on the third phase of the united nations international comparison project icp the main results provide comparisons of real gross domestic product gdp per capita for thirty four countries in 1975 quantity and price comparisons are given also for personal consumption capital formation and public consumption and further subdivisions of final expenditures on gdp are estimated

malthus to solow a unified growth theory is developed that accounts for the roughly constant living standards displayed by world economies prior to 1800 as well as the growing living standards exhibited by modern industrial economies our theory also explains the industrial revolution which is the transition from an era when per capita incomes are stagnant to one with sustained growth the authors use a standard growth model with several technologies the first denoted the malthus technology requires land labor and reproducible capital as inputs the second denoted the solow technology does not require land the authors show that in the early stages of development only the malthus technology is used and due to population growth living standards are stagnant despite technological progress eventually technological progress causes the solow technology to become profitable and both technologies are employed at this point living standards improve since population growth has less influence on per capita income growth in the limit the economy behaves like a standard solow growth model excerpt