learning from failure towards an evolutionary model of collaborative ventures this paper reports on a longitudinal case study of the interaction between two partners to a failed international joint venture we develop a model of the collaboration process in partnership and alliances based on earlier work by ring and van de ven 1994 and by doz 1996 we employ a series of events that occurred in the course of the relationship as the unit of analysis in order to trace the interactions between the partners and to explicate the impact that external shocks have on their perceptions of efficiency and equity the impact of these events as well as the responses they elicit on the quality of the relationship and vice versa are also considered we find that the partners assessments cause them to either engage in renegotiation of the terms of the contract or to modify their behavior unilaterally in an attempt to restore balance to the relationship the process feeds back until a new mutual understanding of equity is restored or else the relationship deteriorates gradually until a point when the venture is dissolved we conclude that positive feedback loops are critical in the evolutionary process that relationship quality is both an outcome and a mediating variable and that procedural issues are critical from the start in fostering a climate for positive reinforcement and the building of mutual trust and confidence in the relationship

control and performance of international joint ventures control is a critical concept for successful management and performance of international joint ventures ijvs this paper reviews and synthesizes prior studies addressing the conceptualization and operationalization of control within ijvs as well as the ijv control performance relationship the paper also presents a new conceptualization of ijv control as well as a conceptual frame work for studying control of ijvs

partner nationality and the structure performance relationship in strategic alliances the dramatic growth of global strategic alliances between firms is fundamentally reshaping the nature of international business indeed interfirm cooperation has become a crucial component of the pursuit of global competitive advantage yet such alliances are enormously complex to manage successfully in part because of the opportunity and incentive to cheat and profit at the partner s expense that is an inescapable part of these relationships consequently strategic alliances are frequently subject to high instability poor performance and premature dissolution thus an important question arises is it possible to promote more stable cooperation and higher alliance performance through a realignment of companies incentives this question is addressed empirically in the present paper using recent work in game theory which suggests that high performance is linked to specific elements of the alliance structure further this study applies insights from international business literature suggesting th

national animosity and cross border alliances we extend the cross border strategic alliance knowledge base by introducing dyad specific antagonism animosity between nation pairs and hold that the formation and the type of firm level cross border alliances are nontrivially impacted by conflicting relations and animosity between their home nations we examine the formation of alliances between firms among nation dyads with and without a history of conflicts the frequency and magnitude of conflicts increase the perception of likelihood of opportunism and dyad specific risks materially affect the context in which firms make alliance decisions as animosity between two nations increases the number and the probability of forming alliances within the dyad the nations form decreases conditional on the expected number of alliances increased antagonistic actions of nations outside the dyad and dissimilarity in the historical conflicts that each nation has engaged in outside the dyad i increase the number of equity alliances and ii decrease the number of nonequity alliances as a proportion of total alliances we find positive main effects of learning to contract through prior experience only for equity vs nonequity alliances the reputation effects of antagonism based on relationships with nations outside of the dyad negatively moderate the positive learning effects of prior equity alliance experience abstract from author

the role of market forces in assuring contractual performance the conditions under which transactors can use the market repeat purchase mechanism of contract enforcement are examined increased price is shown to be a means of assuring contractual performance a necessary and sufficient condition for performance is the existence of price sufficiently above salvageable production costs so that the nonperforming firm loses a discounted steam of rents on future sales which is greater than the wealth increase from nonperformance this will generally imply a market price greater than the perfectly competitive price and rationalize investments in firm specific assets advertising investments thereby become a positive indicator of likely performance

calculating levels of protection is it always appropriate to use world reference prices based on current trading status abstract protection measures such as the nominal protection coefficient npc the effective protection coefficient epc the producer subsidy equivalent pse and the consumer subsidy equivalent cse are conventionally calculated using world reference prices based on current trading status under certain conditions the conventional approach can lead to incorrect estimation of the degree and sometimes even the direction of protection this paper spells out the conditions under which use of world reference prices based on current trading status is incorrect and presents data for wheat in pakistan to illustrate how failure to consider these conditions can lead to misleading policy recommendations

overcoming the dual liability of foreignness and privateness in international corporate citizenship partnerships responding to increased demands from stakeholder groups many companies have instituted corporate citizenship programs in recent years leveraging their specialized resources to create public goods and services at home and abroad significant suspicion nonetheless remains about the motives and impact of corporations acting in domains traditionally served by government and third sector organizations we argue that such ambivalence undermines the perceived legitimacy of private investments in public goods and that this fundamental liability of privateness lop constitutes a significant obstacle to corporations acting in the public domain through corporate citizenship initiatives for multinational corporations mncs the challenges stemming from the lop are further amplified by the liability of foreignness lof commonly associated with international business operations we discuss the origins of the lop and derive implications of the dual liability of lop and lof for partnering choices in mncs corporate citizenship programs we highlight limitations on the set of credible governance mechanisms available to participants in these partnerships describe a set of alternative governance arrangements that serve to realign incentives among alliance partners and link these to the severity of the lop in a particular setting we illustrate our arguments with a case description of microsoft s partners in learning program

economies of scale and barriers to entry dixit has recently presented a model in which established firms select capacity to discourage entry but cannot employ threats they would not rationally execute after entry entry deterrence in a slight modification of this model involves the classical limit price output under linear or concave demand however the capital cost of a firm of minimum efficient scale is an upper bound on the present value of the monopoly profit stream that can be shielded from entry it is argued that this suggests the general unimportance of entry barriers erected by scale economies

gift giving and the evolution of cooperation gift giving is a practice common to many societies in an evolutionary model the social custom of giving gifts at the beginning of a relationship can lead to trust and cooperation the evolutionary approach makes predictions about the character of the goods that can be used as gifts for example gift goods may have little use value even at low levels of consumption although the gifts themselves are useless the institution is not

trust interlinking transactions and credit in the industrial district an essential feature of the industrial district is trust among individuals and firms within it this paper focuses mainly on trust based on investments in building up a good reputation that is a personal capital that can even substitute for collateral in obtaining credit informal credit often linked to other transactions and especially subcontracting is therefore an important way of financing economic development in the industrial district moreover the importance of trust as personal capital gives rise to a double financial intermediation in the industrial district this double intermediation constitutes a device to reduce information problems that are usually responsible for credit rationing c 1994 academic press inc copyright 1994 by oxford university press

internal bargaining and strategic innovation in the theory of the firm abstract the transaction cost analysis of the firm has identified asset idiosyncrasy and the risk of ex post opportunism as key determinants of organizational form simultaneously several writers have modeled the distribution of quasi rents among input suppliers as a bargaining game these complementary ideas are used to formalize the notion of strategic innovation where capital and labor attempt to redistribute firm income after specialized assets are in place through unilateral modifications in production technology because strategic behavior can enlarge the quasi rent component of fifirm income this process may persist in equilibrium asset idiosyncrasy therefore creates room for an autonomous theory of organizational dynamics partially insulated from events at the market level of analysis

explaining interfirm cooperation and performance toward a reconciliation of predictions from the resource based view and organizational economics interfirm cooperation and its performance implications are examined in the context of two widely cited theoretical approaches to organizations broadly speaking the resource based view suggests that firms seek to capitalize on and increase their capabilities and endowments whereas organizational economics asserts that firms focus on minimizing the costs of organizing although these perspectives agree on managers likely actions in many areas their predictions diverge when interfirm cooperation is considered we take a step toward reconciling these differences by positing that firms place resource based concerns in front of considerations from organizational economics when deciding whether or not to engage in interfirm cooperation we examined this prediction using data from 94 publicly held restaurant chains the results support our integrated view but also suggest that giving primacy to resource concerns detracts from the performance of some firms we derive several implications of these findings in an effort to guide subsequent inquiry copyright 1999 john wiley sons ltd

liberalized trade and domestic price stability the case of rice and wheat in india abstract this paper analyzes the effects of liberalizing foodgrain trade on domestic price stability using a multi market equilibrium model in which the direction of trade is determined endogenously and world prices are sensitive to the amount traded by india simulation results demonstrate that contrary to popular belief freeing of trade by india leads to greater domestic price stability even though world prices are more volatile freeing of trade by india also leads to higher world price stability under liberalized trade variable levies subsidies are more effective in stabilizing domestic prices compared to buffer stocks it is therefore in india s interest to argue for non zero binding on import tariffs and export subsidies at the wto negotiations

measures of strategic alliance performance an analysis of construct validity this study evaluates the construct validity of measures of the performance of strategic alliances in 34 equity strategic alliances sas and 45 contractual sas we discuss the content validity of existing measures in the light of current concepts of sa performance empirical results show that the fulfilment of strategic goals and other organizational effectiveness measures of sa performance such as overall performance satisfaction and net spillover effects capture different underlying factors the latter two measures display convergent validity the results also support the discriminant validity of these two measures with respect to contractual changes and survival but not with respect to longevity building on our findings we propose an expanded definition of sa performance that considers both outcome and process performance

developing successful trust based international exchange relationships trust is a central construct in relationship marketing yet the literature provides mixed empirical evidence on the trust performance linkage also there is limited research on how to build trusting international buyer seller relations we develop a comprehensive model integrating performance enhancing mechanisms and antecedent processes of trust in import export relationships our survey results from importers trading with overseas manufacturers suggest that existing levels of trust have a positive effect on relationship performance outcomes achieved 1 year later importantly trust takes on greater importance in enhancing performance under conditions of high interdependence whereas in circumstances of low interdependence trust has no discernible effect the findings also indicate that interfirm psychic distance internal uncertainty and exporter transaction specific assets and opportunism are related to importer trust implications for academics and practitioners are addressed

mandated countertrade as a strategic commitment abstract mandated countertrade is a policy to restrict unilateral imports a country s government thereby in effect commits domestic firms not to purchase from a foreign trading partner unless there are reciprocal sales we argue that the policy may be a rational response to fundamental contracting failures our key assumption being that sellers are incompletely informed about buyers valuations in line with observed practices the analysis suggests that an optimal mandated countertrade policy will target high mark up imports and low mark up exports implications for global welfare are ambiguous and depend upon the extent of a double coincidence of wants

why corporations insure corporations insure to reduce the shirking information problem of joint production insurance encourages specialization in ownership increasing the returns to monitoring and lowering shareholders demand for a more diversified portfolio it enhances the credibility of specific capital as a performance bond and it lowers the cost to shareholders of compensating other members of the team for investing in firm specific assets tax and other factors may further encourage individual corporations to insure

why does the yield curve predict output and inflation the slope of the yield curve has been shown empirically to be a significant predictor of inflation and real economic activity but there is no standard theory as to why the relationship exists this article constructs an analytical rational expectations model to investigate the reasons for the empirical results the model suggests that the relationships are not structural but are instead influenced by the monetary policy regime however the yield curve should have predictive power for output and inflation in most circumstances various implications of the theoretical model are tested and confirmed empirically

new keynesian macroeconomics and the term structure this article complements the structural new keynesian macro framework with a no arbitrage affine term structure model whereas our methodology is general we focus on an extended macro model with an unobservable time varying inflation target and the natural rate of output which are filtered from macro and term structure data we obtain large and significant estimates of the phillips curve and real interest rate response parameters our model also delivers strong contemporaneous responses of the entire term structure to various macroeconomic shocks the inflation target dominates the variation in the level factor whereas the monetary policy shocks dominate the variation in the slope and curvature factors

monetary policy bond risk premia and the economy within an affine model of the term structure of interest rates where bond yields get driven by observable and unobservable macroeconomic factors parameter restrictions help identify the effects of monetary policy and other structural disturbances on output inflation and interest rates and decompose movements in long term rates into terms attributable to changing expected future short rates versus risk premia when estimated the model highlights a broad range of channels through which monetary policy affects risk premia and the economy risk premia affect monetary policy and the economy and the economy affects monetary policy and risk premia

trust and performance in cross border marketing partnerships a behavioral approach existing research on international partnerships focuses primarily on the ex ante structuring of interorganizational relationships this study departs from this research by taking a behavioral approach to understand the ex post maintenance of cross border marketing partnerships a conceptual model is developed by identifying the antecedents of trust and performance in such partnerships the model is empirically tested on a sample of u s firms having distributor and licensing relationships with firms from asia europe and central south america findings support the importance of bilateral relational norms and informal monitoring mechanism in building interorganizational trust and improving market performance of international partnerships

beware of the watchdog rethinking the normative justification of gatekeeper liability one of the prevailing explanations of the corporate scandals of the enron era and the recent financial crisis is the failure of professional gatekeepers such as auditors corporate lawyers and securities analysts to detect and disrupt corporate misconduct the alleged solution to this failure typically proposed and justified on consequentialist grounds is to impose legal liability on professionals the purpose of this paper is to critically examine the normative foundations of gatekeeper liability in the course of this paper i shall defend the claim that gatekeeper liability may be morally objectionable not only on grounds of fairness but also on consequentialist grounds the expected contribution of this paper is threefold first it systematizes the framing and moral justification of gatekeeping duties second it calls into question the normative underpinnings for targeting intermediaries instead of primary wrongdoers third it anticipates some negative and often overlooked results of gatekeeping strategies in the accounting profession specifically in the realm of clientele selection the expectation gap and auditor compensation

firm survival and industry evolution in vertically related populations this paper examines how the density and governance of vertically related populations affect the life chances of organizations we integrate the literatures on organizational ecology and vertical integration to develop a theory of how 1 specialized upstream industries affect downstream survival rates 2 the prevalence of different governance forms among upstream and downstream organizations moderates this relationship and 3 different forms of governance exert differential competitive pressures on focal organizations we find evidence supporting our hypotheses in an empirical examination of the downstream laser printer industry and upstream laser engine industry this paper was accepted by jesper sorensen organizations

a general tce model of international business institutions market failure and reciprocity in this study i propose a general transaction cost economics tce model of international business institutions in which cross border transactions can be conducted at multiple market levels e g output asset and equity and the buyer seller relationship can go both ways a sells to b and b sells to a this general model addresses two major gaps in the literature first although market failure is the driving force behind the rise of multinational enterprises mnes most researchers have focused on the failure of a single market without exploring the presence of substitute markets for cross border transactions second many previous studies have begun their analysis with a bilateral setup between an mne and an indigenous firm for example a licensing agreement but concluded with a unilateral decision made by the mne to evade the indigenous firm in the case of direct investment in bridging the two literature gaps i propose a general tce model to integrate all institutional modes available to firms for governing international business such as licensing outsourcing acquisitions and joint ventures built on a multi market framework my analysis reveals that the choice of the optimal international business institution is tantamount to the selection of the most efficient market to conduct cross border transactions drawing on a bilateral setup it explicitly recognizes the power of reciprocity in solving the problem of market failure this distinct approach points out promising directions for future researchers to advance international business studies particularly after my transaction level analysis has been expanded to also consider institutional contexts and firm capabilities

the predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in europe and the united states implications for the european central bank abstract this paper examines the relationship of the term structure of interest rates to monetary policy instruments and to subsequent real activity and inflation in both europe and the united states the results show that monetary policy is an important determinant of the term structure spread but is unlikely to be the only determinant in addition there is significant predictive power for both real activity and inflation the yield curve is thus a simple and accurate measure that should be viewed as one piece of useful information which along with other information can be used to help guide european monetary policy

the stability of joint ventures reciprocity and competitive rivalry the focus of the following empirical analysis is the influence of reciprocity and long term relationships on the stability of joint ventures these cooperative incentives are offset by industry structural conditions which may promote competitive rivalry among the partners to separate these effects on joint venture survival the hypothesized relationships are proxied by variables drawn from industry and questionnaire data and estimated under a hazard model specification a theoretical implication of the findings is to suggest a shift of attention from the transaction to the economic relationship as the unit of analysis copyright 1989 by blackwell publishing ltd

long term sustainability of third party facilitated market linkages evidence from the usda marketing assistance program in the armenian dairy industry abstract public private partnerships are increasingly seen as an important tool to build agri food supply chains and develop markets for agri food products in emerging economies however many of these initiatives fail when the public component of the program ends one exception is the usda market assistance program map that facilitated the redevelopment of the armenian dairy sector after privatization this paper presents a case study of this initiative and hypothesize that the usda map facilitated farmer investment in private enforcement capital this investment resulted in sustainable market relationships between farmers and dairy processors even after the usda map expired we find empirical evidence to support this hypothesis using a panel dataset collected from 172 armenian dairy farmers in 2004 and 2009

predicting u s recessions financial variables as leading indicators this paper examines the out of sample performance of various financial variables as predictors of u s recessions series such as interest rates and spreads stock prices and monetary aggregates are evaluated individually and in comparison with other financial and nonfinancial indicators the analysis focuses on out of sample performance from one to eight quarters ahead results show that stock prices are useful with one to three quarter horizons as are some well known macroeconomic indicators beyond one quarter however the slope of the yield curve emerges as the clear individual choice and typically performs better by itself out of sample than in conjunction with other variables

licensee technological potential and exclusive rights in international licensing a multilevel model granting of exclusive rights is an important consideration for firms using licensing as a mode of entry into foreign markets as exclusive contracts reduce licensors flexibility in a given market during the term of the agreement by granting exclusivity to a licensee with greater technological potential the exchange partners can increase the potential transactional value of the licensing agreement at the same time a licensee with strong technological potential will increase the threat of transactional hazards due to underinvestment and rent appropriation in this paper we develop and empirically test a model that evaluates the balancing of transactional value and transaction costs in exclusive licensing in particular we identify the conditions under which exclusive contracts are likely to be granted to foreign licensees with strong technological potential empirical results from a multilevel model based on 375 international licensing agreements of us firms in high technology industries during 1995 2008 show that licensees with a stronger technological potential are more likely to be granted exclusive rights in countries with strong intellectual property rights protection and in industries with a high rate of technological change but are less likely to be granted exclusive rights when there is a high degree of overlap between licensor and licensee products

how to deliver foreign aid the case of projects governed by the spanish international agency summary international agencies use two alternative modes of governance to deliver international aid projects under bilateral agreements with recipient governments in house or through incumbent ngos through the lenses of institutional and transaction cost economics this article examines 95 international aid projects delivered in morocco and ecuador by the spanish international agency finding that those projects delivered in house present different features than those projects outsourced through incumbent ngos specifically international aid projects delivered in house involve important investments in specific assets are much more complex and can turn the public agency into a hostage of its own disbursement

gifts as economic signals and social symbols gift giving has often puzzled economists especially because efficient gifts like cash or giving exactly what a person asks for seem crass or inappropriate it is shown in a formal game theoretic model that gifts serve as signals of a person s intentions about future investment in a relationship and inefficient gifts can be better signals other explanations for the inefficiency of gift giving are advanced and some stylized facts about gift giving practices are described many of which are consistent with the signaling view of gifts

instabilities of strategic alliances an internal tensions perspective the instabilities of strategic alliances have been examined in the literature through a number of theoretical approaches alliance instabilities refer to major changes or dissolutions of alliances that are unplanned from the perspective of one or more partners although the literature identifies certain characteristics of strategic alliances that may lead to their unplanned dissolution the extent of our understanding of this subject appears to be fragmented and incomplete in this article we propose a comprehensive framework for adequately understanding alliance instabilities based on the notion of internal tensions we suggest that strategic alliances are sites in which conflicting forces develop and which can be viewed as being constituted by three key pairs of competing forces namely cooperation versus competition rigidity versus flexibility and short term versus long term orientation this tensions framework helps us in explaining the intrinsic vulnerability of alliances in terms of a wide range of internal contradictions and enables us to examine in an integrated manner the incidence dynamics and eventual dissipation of the inherent instabilities we discuss the interrelationships among the different internal tensions and their impacts on different types of strategic alliances we also examine the termination of alliances through mergers acquisitions and dissolution finally we suggest ways to empirically test the various ideas and propositions developed here and indicate directions for further research

performance and survival of joint ventures with non conventional ownership structures the international joint venture jv literature has focused on two parent jvs formed between one foreign and one local firm yet other types of jvs exist this paper identifies four distinct forms of jvs based on the jv partners nationality and equity affiliation these are i jvs that are formed between affiliated home country based firms ii jvs that are formed between unaffiliated home country based firmsl iii jvs that are formed between home country based and local firms and iv jvs that are formed between home country and third country based firms our analysis of 737 japanese jvs in asia demonstrates that the conventionally assumed form of jv represented only 30 percent of the total further each of the four jv forms significantly differed in terms of incidence performance and survival likelihood

plan and market in china s agricultural commerce this article examines interactions between markets and state commercial planning in the context of china s agricultural sector it begins with a discussion of recent trends in agricultural planning and commerce in china and then presents a theoretical model that analyzes the way that a mixed commercial system of the sort observed in china functions the theoretical analysis suggests that a mixed system is sustainable and can have desirable efficiency and distributional effects markets however limit the range of sustainable plans and in the presence of markets state planning may no longer directly influence production and consumption behavior

watta satta bride exchange and women s welfare in rural pakistan in a setting where husbands wield considerable coercive power forms of marriage should adapt to protect the interests of women and their families the authors study the pervasive marriage custom of watta satta in rural pakistan a bride exchange between families coupled with a mutual threat of retaliation they show that watta satta may be a mechanism to coordinate the actions of two sets of in laws each of whom wish to restrain their sons in law but who only have the ability to restrain their sons the authors empirical results support this view the likelihood of marital inefficiency as measured by estrangement domestic abuse and wife s mental health is significantly lower in watta satta arrangements as compared with conventional marriages but only after properly accounting for selection

efficient investments in the implementation problem abstract this paper identifies a condition for an efficient social choice rule to be fully implementable when we take into account investment efficiency to do so we extend the standard implementation problem to include endogenous ex ante and ex post investments in our problem the social planner aims to achieve efficiency in every equilibrium of a dynamic game in which agents strategically make investments before and after playing the mechanism our main theorem shows that a novel condition commitment proofness is sufficient and necessary for an efficient social choice rule to be implementable in subgame perfect equilibria the availability of ex post investments is crucial in our model there is no social choice rule that is efficient and implementable in subgame perfect equilibria without ex post investments we also show that our positive result continues to hold in the incomplete information setting

buyers strategies entry barriers and competition in markets where sellers have customer specific investments and buyers can make credible but costly commitments to switch suppliers buyers strategies attenuate the market power of sellers furthermore since current prices and a buyer s decision to switch suppliers are related limit pricing becomes an equilibrium limit prices increase with the time it takes a buyer to switch suppliers and with buyers switching costs but fall with the level of sunk investments thus sunk investments may restrain the sellers ability to exert market power the paper questions then the standard inverse relationship between market performance and sunk investments

macro factors and the term structure of interest rates this paper presents an essentially affine model of the term structure of interest rates making use of macroeconomic factors and their long run expectations the model extends the approach pioneered by kozicki and tinsley 2001 by modeling consistently long run inflation expectations simultaneously with the term structure application to the u s economy shows the importance of long run inflation expectations in the modeling of long term bond yields the paper also provides a macroeconomic interpretation for the latent factors found in standard finance models of the yield curve the level factor represents the long run inflation expectation of agents the slope factor captures business cycle conditions and the curvature factor expresses a clear independent monetary policy factor

do central bank liquidity facilities affect interbank lending rates in response to the global financial crisis that started in august 2007 central banks provided extraordinary amounts of liquidity to the financial system to investigate the effect of central bank liquidity facilities on term interbank lending rates near the start of the crisis we estimate a six factor arbitrage free model of u s treasury yields financial corporate bond yields and term interbank rates this model can account for fluctuations in the term structure of credit and liquidity spreads observed in the data a significant shift in model estimates after the announcement of the liquidity facilities suggests that these central bank actions did help lower the liquidity premium in term interbank rates

the yield curve and macroeconomic dynamics we show that microfounded dsge models with nominal rigidities can be successful in replicating features of bond yield data including sizeable term premia and volatile long term yields which have previously been considered puzzling in general equilibrium frameworks at the same time sample moments of consumption growth and inflation can be fit relatively well the improved model performance does not arise directly from the presence of nominal rigidities however this feature introduces short run monetary non neutrality so that monetary policy affects consumption dynamics and bond prices a high degree of interest rate smoothing in the policy rule is essential for our results at the core of dynamic macroeconomic models we find equilibrium relationships which describe the allocation of quantities e g consumption and investment and when imperfect competition prevails the setting of prices these equations are typically valid across time and across states of nature and financial assets form the tool that is supposed to ensure their validity financial assets are therefore an integral part of macroeconomic models any well specified model should be able to match financial data as well as macro data it is therefore problematic that microfounded models have had a hard time explaining key features of asset prices the most famous example of this difficulty is the equity premium puzzle but various features of bond yield data have also been char acterised as puzzling in the literature a number of papers including backus et al 1989 donaldson et al 1990 den haan 1995 and chapman 1997 have con cluded that general equilibrium models cannot generate term premia of a magnitude comparable to what we observe in actual data and may not even be capable of producing positive term premia for equity one could argue that fundamentals the expected future profitability of individual firms are unobservable and difficult to evaluate equity prices may therefore be thought to be subject to fluctuations disconnected from the real economy information acquisition fads etc and one could hope that the inability of macroeconomic models to match equity prices does not represent a signal of misspecification this argument is more difficult to construct for bonds bond yields should ultimately reflect expectations of future monetary policy decisions which at least in recent years are arguably more predictable than equity fundamentals thus the ability of macroeconomic models to explain bond prices represents an important test of their empirical performance in this article we revisit the relationship between bond prices and macroeconomic fundamentals contrary to the papers cited above that rely on flexible price models we

international yield curve comovements impact of the recent financial crisis empirical evidence on international yield comovement is sparse and lacks consensus employing a dynamic correlation approach we show that during the recent global financial crisis euro area yields have ceased to comove with the yields of the other international markets canada uk and us some implications of our results are discussed

interfirm diversity organizational learning and longevity in global strategic alliances organizational theorists have correctly argued that the emergence and maintenance of robust cooperation between global strategic alliance partners is related to the diversity in the partners characteristics yet previous research has failed to systematically delineate the important dimensions of interfirm diversity and integrate the dimensions into a unified framework of analysis this paper develops a multilevel typology of interfirm diversity and focuses on organizational learning and adaptation as critical processes that dynamically moderate diversity s impact on alliance longevity and effectiveness

the bumpy road of technology partnerships understanding causes and consequences of partnership mal functioning abstract research on technological partnerships has traditionally sought explanation of their high failure rates in partner characteristics and relationship features this study introduces the notion of a bumpy road in technology partnerships which refers to undesired outcomes such as partnership mal functioning and instability to the degree to which innovation activities are hampered we explain how firm level strategies can reduce the probability of a bumpy road in partnerships we also assess the impact of this bumpy road on innovative performance we find that firms that excel in diversification of external activities in terms of different types of partners perform best moreover a persistent product oriented innovation strategy geared at developing new products new markets or higher product quality will yield more stable partnership outcomes our results confirm that engagement in partnerships is beneficial for innovative performance however firms that experienced a bumpy road in their technological partnerships have to pay a price in terms of a negative effect on their innovative performance

cross function and same function alliances how does alliance structure affect the behavior of partnering firms firms collaborate to develop and deliver new products these collaborations vary in terms of the similarity of the competencies that partnering firms bring to the alliance in same function alliances partnering firms have similar competencies whereas in cross function alliances partners have very different competencies on examining managers view of these alliances we find that on average same function alliances are expected to perform better than cross function alliances holding fixed the level of inputs a game theoretic analysis shows that this apprehension about cross function alliances is consistent with a pareto inferior equilibrium a pareto superior equilibrium however suggests that partners in cross function alliances may invest more in their alliances than those in same function alliances it is also often believed that increasing the number of partnering firms is not conducive for collaborative effort our analysis shows that this belief is correct for same function alliances but not for cross function alliances we test these equilibrium predictions in an experiment where we exogenously vary the type of alliance and the number of partnering firms the experimental results lend support for the pareto superior equilibrium partners in cross function alliances invested more than their counterparts in same function alliances and this difference in investment levels increased with the number of partnering firms we extend our model to consider alliances where firms have an opportunity to learn from their partners and later leverage this knowledge outside the scope of their alliance though such learning increases the resources committed by alliance partners in the learning phase it decreases investment in the subsequent competition and also dampens the overall investment across the two stages in addition an increase in interalliance competition decreases investments in the focal alliance but increases investment in the competition outside the scope of the alliance

the neglect of society in the theory of the firm a systems theory perspective the prevailing theories of the firm acknowledge the importance of trust and loyalty but neglect such behaviour in the substance of their analyses the present paper unravels this paradox by drawing on niklas luhmann s ground breaking insight that the complexity reducing function of social systems leads them to neglect their critical environmental dependencies thereby compromising their own sustainability if the firm is conceived as a social system luhmann s theory implies that the neglect of social behaviour by the predominant theories of the firm can be explained as reflecting the neglect of society by actual firms this argument promises to not only furnish the theory of the firm with a concern for sustainability but also render it more amenable to unconventional institutions such as cooperatives and non profit organisations that help compensate for the damage inflicted by conventional firms on the social environment

transactions cost economics and the multinational enterprise an assessment abstract this paper applies transactions cost principles to the multinational enterprise in order to ascertain its distinctive properties as a mode of economic organization the analysis helps identify just when and where contractual alternatives to the multinational firm are likely to be viable this turns out to depend upon the nature of the technology the regime of appropriability within which the firm operates and the characteristics of the markets in question transactions cost analysis is also extended to the multinational enterprise host country relationship implications for management and public policy are derived

predation reputation and entry deterrence abstract economists often argue that predatory practices are irrational since there exist cheaper or more certain means to gain or maintain a monopoly our gametheoretic equilibrium analysis suggests that if a firm is threatened by several potential entrants then predation may be rational against early entrants even if it is costly when viewed in isolation because it yields a reputation which deters other entrants asymmetric information plays a crucial role in our analysis since it provides the rationale for entrants to base their expectations of the firm s future behavior on its past actions the analysis also suggests methods to treat general reputational phenomena

equity joint ventures and the theory of the multinational enterprise this paper extends the internalization approach to the theory of the multinational enterprise mne to include an expanded role for equity joint ventures using the transaction cost paradigm of williamson this paper explains why joint ventures may sometimes be preferred over wholly owned subsidiaries also presented is empirical work on joint venture performance in developing countries which demonstrates that under certain conditions joint ventures can be the optimal mode of foreign direct investment

leniency policies and illegal transactions abstract we study the consequences of leniency reduced legal sanctions for wrongdoers who spontaneously self report to law enforcers on sequential bilateral illegal transactions such as corruption manager auditor collusion or drug deals it is known that leniency helps deterring illegal relationships sustained by repeated interaction here we find that when not properly designed leniency may simultaneously provide an effective governance mechanism for occasional sequential illegal transactions that would not be feasible in its absence

information in the yield curve a macro finance approach this paper uses an a ne term structure model that incorporates macroeconomic and nancial factors to study the term premium in the u s bond market the results corroborate the known rejection of the expectation hypothesis and indicate that one factor closely related to the cochrane and piazzesi 2005 factor the cp factor is responsible for most of the variation in bond premia furthermore the model implied bond premia are able to explain around 32 and 40 of the variability of one and two year excess returns and their outof sample performance is comparable to the one obtained with the cp factor the model is also used to decompose yield spreads into an expectations and a term premium component in order to forecast gdp growth and in ation although this decomposition does not seem important to forecast gdp growth it is crucial to forecast in ation for most forecasting horizons also the inclusion of control variables such as the short term interest rate and lagged variables does not drive out the predictive power of the yield spread decomposition

a macro finance model of the term structure monetary policy and the economy this paper develops and estimates a macro finance model that combines a canonical affine no arbitrage finance specification of the term structure with standard macroeconomic aggregate relationships for output and inflation from this new empirical formulation we obtain several interesting results 1 the latent term structure factors from finance no arbitrage models appear to have important macroeconomic and monetary policy underpinnings 2 there is no evidence of monetary policy inertia or a slow partial adjustment of the policy interest rate by the federal reserve and 3 both forward looking and backward looking elements play important roles in macroeconomic dynamics

measuring performance of international joint ventures international joint ventures ijvs are increasing in frequency and strategic importance however efforts to identify variables associated with ijv performance have been constrained by disagreements regarding the comparability and reliability of alternative performance measures and methods this study tests several hypotheses regarding the reliability and comparability of a range of objective and subjective measures of ijv performance as well as evaluating the relative utility of different data collection approaches

is the pds already a cash transfer rethinking india s food subsidy policies abstractcritics argue that india s mismanaged public distribution system pds which sells subsidised cereals to poor families should be replaced by cash transfers others fear cash may be misused using national sample survey data this article demonstrates that families treat additional pds subsidies wholly as a source of cash exactly like a cash transfer more worryingly cereal consumption has not increased despite higher real subsidies moreover neither the pds nor cash transfers are likely to raise total food expenditure in poor families finally therefore the paper explores how higher food consumption and other objectives of pds subsidies may be achieved

seasonal rural labor markets and their relevance to policy analyses in developing countries abstract seasonality is a salient feature of rural livelihoods and particularly within agriculture the demand for labor varies with the seasons and weather in low income countries agriculture employs almost two thirds of the labor force and incomes from labor are a major determinant of welfare therefore an appropriate model representation of rural labor markets is critical when analyzing agricultural and food policies economy wide models are commonly used for ex ante policy analysis but have so far ignored the influence of seasonality implicitly assuming separability of seasonal labor demand and supply this study relaxes that assumption using a computable general equilibrium cge model calibrated to the bhutanese economy as an illustrative case using model setups with and without seasonal labor markets a cereal export ban of india is simulated leading to higher import prices for bhutan results demonstrate that neglecting the influence of seasons on rural labor markets systematically biases model results assuming homogeneity of labor units i e allowing substitution across seasons understates the impacts of policy changes on rural wage rates distorts households labor leisure trade off decisions and overstates agricultural supply response given the widespread use of economy wide models the results are important for understanding the implications of domestic and global policy changes for agriculture and welfare in developing economies

national culture transaction costs and the choice between joint venture and wholly owned subsidiary transaction cost theory posits that culture plays a limited role in the choice between jv and wos in contrast research suggests that firms preferred level of ownership in their foreign subsidiaries is influenced primarily by cultural traits this study provides additional evidence in this ongoing debate by replicating hennart s transaction cost model of entry mode choice in two different national contexts japanese firms investing in the u s and the u s firms investing in japan the results suggest that the transaction cost explanation for the ownership choice holds in the both national contexts yet the propensity to choose jv or wos significantly varied between japanese and the u s firms

a multicountry comparison of term structure forecasts at long horizons abstract this paper extends previous work on the information in the u s term structure at longer maturities to britain west germany and switzerland we find strong evidence that the term structure does have significant ability to forecast changes in inflation particularly at long maturities on the other hand the ability of the term structure to forecast changes in one year interest rates is somewhat weaker only at the very longest horizon five years is there significant forecasting ability for interest rate changes

the role of installment payments in contracts for services this article studies the role of installment payments in relationships characterized by moral hazard and sunk costs we rule out vertical integration and payments contingent on the product of the contractor instead each payment is negotiated as and when made in such circumstances an initial down payment serves to redress the weakness of the contractor in ex post renegotiations if higher effort by the contractor in thefirst stage increases the marginal product of effort in the second stage a second installment payment induces the contractor to invest greater effort initially

a re examination of the predictability of economic activity using the yield spread this paper revisits the yield spread s usefulness for predicting future real gdp growth we show that the contribution of the spread can be decomposed into the effect of expected future changes in short rates and the effect of the term premium we find that both factors are relevant for predicting real gdp growth but the respective contributions differ we investigate whether the cyclical behavior of interest rate volatility could account for either or both effects we find that while volatility displays important correlations with both the term structure of interest rates and gdp it does not appear to account for the yield spread s usefulness for predicting gdp growth

assessing global computable general equilibrium model validity using agricultural price volatility computable general equilibrium cge models are commonly used for global agricultural market analysis concerns are sometimes raised however about the quality of their output since key parameters may not be econometrically estimated and little emphasis is generally given to model assessment this article addresses the latter issue by developing an approach to validating cge models based on the ability to reproduce observed price volatility in agricultural markets we show how patterns in the deviations between model predictions and validation criteria can be used to identify the weak points of a model and guide development of improved specifications with firmer empirical foundations

natural gas contracts in an emerging competitive market natural gas is being viewed by many as the fuel of the 1990s and beyond because of its environmental qualities relatively low cost and significant domestic resource base however in the fall of 1991 a group of electric utility executives met with then deputy secretary of energy henson moore and asserted that an inability to obtain long term gas contracts meant that supplies are unreliable and construction of gas fueled generating stations is being discouraged this study was requested by the deputy secretary to address the issues surrounding long term gas contracts and supply reliability the relationship between supply reliability and contracts is explained in terms of the number of buyers and sellers in a market with the appropriate state regulatory policies utilities can contract for gas and obtain reliable supplies at competitive market prices public utility commissioners are encouraged to permit utilities a free choice in signing gas contracts but to allow only competitive market prices to be reflected in allowable fuel costs

shifting endpoints in the term structure of interest rates abstract this paper links the term structure to perceptions of monetary policy long horizon forecasts of short rates required by no arbitrage term structure models are heavily influenced by the endpoints or limiting conditional forecasts of the short rate process common assumptions that the short rate is mean reverting or contains a unit root are shown to generate unrealistic yield predictions failures occur because these assumptions inadequately account for historical shifts in market perceptions of the policy target for inflation this paper links endpoint shifts to agent learning about shifts in long term policy goals shifting endpoints in short rate processes significantly improve yield predictions

the antecedents and performance implications of cooperative exchange norms our study investigates the antecedents and performance implications of cooperative exchange norms we argue that in early relationships the level of expected cooperative norms in an exchange is the result of a calculative process facilitated by transaction attributes joint transaction specific investments and observability the greater the level of these two exchange attributes the greater the level of cooperative exchange norms all else being equal we further argue that the realized level of cooperative exchange norms can deviate from the expected level because the development of such norms is the result of social processes that management cannot directly and fully control this gap between realized and expected norms affects exchange performance performance suffers when the realized level of cooperative exchange norms falls below the expected level but overshooting expectations lays a critical groundwork for repeat transactions the analysis of a survey of 182 collaborative r d alliances provides initial support for our theory

modes of foreign entry a transaction cost analysis and propositions a frontier issue in international marketing is the appropriate choice of entry mode in foreign markets the objective of this paper is to offer a transaction cost framework for investigating the entry mode decision this framework provides 1 a theoretical basis for systematically interrelating the literature into propositions 2 propositions about interactions which resolve the apparently contradictory arguments advanced to date specifically the paper illustrates the feasibility of clustering 17 entry modes into the degree of control the mode provides the entrant proposes that the most appropriate i e most efficient entry mode is a function of the tradeoff between control and the cost of resource commitment advances testable propositions delimiting the circumstances under which each mode maximizes long term efficiency

food subsidies and poverty alleviation this paper formulates the problem of the optimal pattern of food subsidies in a general setting where the objective is to minimize a class of poverty indices within the framework of the mo dern public finance theory taking explicit account of the budget con straint and preferences and technologies the authors derive rules fo r retargetting food subsidies to reduce poverty many operational rul es of thumb appear as special cases of the general results the analy sis thus provides not only the microfoundations of these operational rules but also their appropriate generalizations when the conditions under which they arise are not fulfilled copyright 1988 by royal economic society

revisiting multinational firms tolerance for joint ventures a trust based approach in spite of the increasing popularity of international joint ventures managers express a high level of dissatisfaction with them this paper argues that overemphasis on the outcome has resulted in a neglect of the social processes underlying the outcome the paper elaborates upon the rationale for a cooperative approach towards interorganizational collaborative relationships based on trust and discusses it in the context of joint ventures this is then applied towards understanding multinational ownership preferences and tolerance for joint ventures it is argued that trust centered logic is largely consistent with approaches that emphasize the issue of ownership and deepens and enriches the insights provided by the latter a shift in focus from ownership to relational dynamics is encouraged

knowledge acquisition from foreign parents in international joint ventures an empirical examination in the hungarian context in this paper we examine organizational characteristics structural mechanisms and contextual factors that influence knowledge acquisition from the foreign parent in international joint ventures ijvs we in turn relate assessments of knowledge acquisition to ijv performance the data come from a survey of ijvs in the hungarian context where learning and knowledge acquisition from the foreign parent is thought to be particularly critical adaptation mechanisms such as capacity to learn articulated goals and structural mechanisms such as the provision of training technology and managerial assistance by foreign parents all were positively associated with the degree to which ijvs reported acquiring knowledge from their foreign parents we also found limited support for the belief that cultural conflicts can impede knowledge acquisition but only for two party joint ventures with 50 50 equity arrangements we also looked at the relationship between knowledge acquisition and different dimensions for evaluating ijv performance the relationship between knowledge acquisition and performance was significant for all indicators of performance through knowledge acquisition from the foreign parent and the organizational characteristics hypothesized to enhance ijv knowledge acquisition affected assessments of some dimensions of performance more than others our findings contribute to advancing knowledge about the relationship between organizational characteristics and organizational knowledge acquisition in ijvs as well as the relationships between knowledge acquisition and different dimensions of ijv performance

on the economic efficiency of liquidated damages abstract recently aghion and bolton american economic review 1987 77 388 401 have shown that liquidated damages can serve as a barrier to entry and may therefore be socially harmful in this paper i show that liquidated damages remain excessive and continue to serve as a barrier to entry even in the presence of relationship specific investment but may nevertheless have an overall positive effect on welfare

a structural decomposition of the us yield curve abstract by expanding the macro part of macro finance models historical fluctuations in us bond yields turn out to be largely consistent with the rational expectations hypothesis we estimate a medium scale macro finance dsge model of the term structure to establish this our finding contrasts with existing macro finance models and suggests that their small scale or non structural perspective on the macroeconomy mutes expectations thereby underestimating the expectations hypothesis potential out of sample forecasts are competitive with more flexible term structure models given the empirical validation we interpret various episodes through the lens of the model and investigate which structural shocks cause the yield curve to contain information about future growth

asset specificity and the political behavior of firms lobbying for subsidies in norway previous research into endogenous trade policy has described extensively the political incentives of firms with specific assets but no studies have shown directly that firms behave as predicted we adopt insights from transaction costs economics to develop measures of asset specificity and to investigate how variation in these measures affects the political behavior of firms in particular we examine the lobbying choices of norwegian firms in the 1980s given available subsidy funds from norway s oil boom and some government decisions in the 1970s firms with more specific assets faced potentially greater losses from adjusting to new activities in the face of competitive pressures and thus had greater incentives to lobby for subsidies to protect themselves joint contacting of parliament and government on behalf of firm interests by representatives of both management and labor should be particularly likely where firms had specific assets data analysis shows that asset specificity as indicated by r d intensity and job immobility predicts joint contacting independently of plausible alternative explanatory variables like firm size and export orientation

investing in a relationship a principal can make an investment anticipating a repeated relationship with an agent but the agent may appropriate the returns through ex post bargaining i study how this holdup problem and efficiency depend on the contracting environment when investment returns are observable informal contracts ex post can be more efficient than formal contracts as they induce higher investment ex ante the principal invests not only to generate direct returns but also to improve relational incentives unobservability of returns increases the principal s ability to appropriate the returns but reduces her ability to improve incentives the optimal information structure depends on bargaining power

sustaining satisfactory joint venture relationships the role of conflict resolution strategy the paper presents a conceptual framework that links international joint venture context cultural similarity relative power and relationship age and partners conflict resolution strategies to satisfaction special attention is paid to the mediation effect of conflict resolution behavior on the linkage from context to satisfaction the framework is assessed empirically using a sample of u s and chinese joint venture managers in china

product complementarities capabilities and governance a dynamic transaction cost perspective the organization and governance of the transactions that comprise a bundling arrangement depend on the distribution of capabilities among firms and the amount of time during which the window of opportunity for earning rents is expected to remain open firms engaged in inter firm collaboration must undertake support transactions related to billing marketing customer support and product repair these support transactions differ from the core transactions that have traditionally been perceived as sufficient to provide a product bundle since support transactions create costs of their own the market may turn out to be an expensive means of governing collaborative arrangements undertaken for bundling purposes the telecommunications service sector provides an illustration copyright 1997 by oxford university press

the impacts of india s food security policies on south asian wheat and rice markets we quantify the extent to which india s success in stabilizing its wheat and rice markets affects other countries in south asia we deal with the variability of indian trade and price policies by a

disorganization and financial collapse since the fall of communism the former soviet union experienced a strong output decline and a dramatic increase in arrears and barter we develop a model which explains how these three phenomena are connected we introduce liquidity and credit constraints into a model of disorganization and show how these problems can alleviate the hold up problem we argue further that barter creates a hostage that allows to deal with disorganization when credit enforcement becomes prohibitively costly based on a firm survey in ukraine in 1997 we test how input shortages financial shortages and barter affect output growth of firms