optimal inflation tax under precommitment theory and evidence the authors develop and test the orthogonality conditions implied by a dynamic model of the inflation tax a distinguishing feature of the analysis is that the welfare loss from inflation the money demand function and the time path of inflation are jointly derived from first principles of government and private sector intertemporal optimization quarterly data for argentina brazil and israel are used in implementing the model although the overidentifying restrictions of the model are not rejected in most cases there are several data points characterized by higher rates of inflation than the optimal rates under precommitment copyright 1992 by american economic association

money demand and seigniorage maximizing inflation conventional estimates of the seigniorage maximizing inflation rate often make use of the cagan form which implies a constant semielasticity of money demand with respect to inflation this paper shows that the elasticity of substitution in transactions between money and bonds determines how the inflation semielasticity of money demand changes as inflation rises allowing for a variable semielasticity estimates of seigniorage maximizing inflation for a panel of eleven high inflation countries are lower than those obtained by using the cagan form estimates based on the correct measure of the opportunity cost of money also differ sharply from those obtained when using conventional inflation measures copyright 1995 by ohio state university press

budget deficits stability and the monetary dynamics of hyperinflation hyperinflationary processes usually occur in countries with extremely large budget deficits in models of inflationary finance with rational expectations e g buiter 1987 large budget deficits cannot lead to hyperinflation the purpose of this paper is to reconcile the standard theoretical model with the stylized facts it shows that by introducing a lag in the adjustment of the money market into the standard inflationary finance model large budget deficits are indeed the main reason for hyperinflation the paper also provides an explanation for the ineffectiveness of moderate reductions in the deficit in reducing inflation and argues that fiscal lags can be destabilizing copyright 1989 by ohio state university press

trading and pricing in upstairs and downstairs stock markets we provide empirical evidence on the economic benefits of negotiating trades in the upstairs trading room of brokerage firms relative to the downstairs market using helsinki stock exchange data we find that upstairs trades tend to have lower information content and lower price impacts than downstairs trades this is consistent with the hypotheses that the upstairs market is better at pricing uninformed liquidity trades and that upstairs brokers can give better prices to their customers if they know the unexpressed demands of other customers we find that these economic benefits depend on price discovery occurring in the downstairs market copyright 2002 oxford university press

inflation and welfare in a monetary economy it is in everyone s private interest to try to get someone else to hold non interest bearing cash and reserves but someone has to hold it all so these efforts must simply cancel out all of us spend several hours per year in this effort and employ thousands of talented and highly trained people to help us these person hours are simply thrown away wasted on a task that should not have to be performed at all

upstairs market for principal and agency trades analysis of adverse information and price effects this paper directly tests the hypothesis that upstairs intermediation lowers adverse selection cost we find upstairs market makers effectively screen out information motivated orders and execute large liquidity motivated orders at a lower cost than the downstairs market upstairs markets do not cannibalize or free ride off the downstairs market in one quarter of the trades the upstairs market offers price improvement over the limit orders available in the consolidated limit order book trades are more likely to be executed upstairs at times when liquidity is lower in the downstairs market

internalization and stock price clustering finnish evidence abstract internalization the practice of brokers executing trades in house is a significant phenomenon in the helsinki stock exchange during the continuous trading session 97 5 upstairs market trades are internalized the corresponding figure for after hours upstairs market trades is 73 1 the prices of internalized trades are somewhat more clustered than the prices of other trades during the continuous trading session but they are not more clustered than the prices of negotiated trades in the after hours upstairs market this suggests that finnish brokers do not use a more discrete set of prices for internalized trades than for other upstairs trades

empirical estimates of inflation tax laffer surfaces a 30 country study abstract long run or steady state inflation tax laffer surfaces are estimated with annual data over the 1960s through early 1990s for a varied group of 30 countries using the cagan semi elastic demand for currency and for deposits the model includes an explicit role for the reserve ratio variations in which are shown to be important in explaining inflation tax revenue statistically countries inflation and reserve ratio management are examined in terms of where they operated with respect to steady state laffer boundaries defined as the locus of instruments inflation and reserve ratio that maximize the inflation tax analysis is performed both in terms of sample means of the instruments and their annual values each approach requiring a different conceptual framework few countries operated frequently on the wrong side of the laffer surface

the effect of block transactions on share prices australian evidence abstract the sydney stock exchange provides an unusually clean test of whether large transactions affect share prices it is small and trading is thin so our sample of block trades ranges in size from one to sixty days of normal trading volume sydney is a non dealer auction market and we can identify and eliminate all purchases and sales by brokers thus focusing on substitution effects the data are consistent with the perfect substitution hypothesis without price pressure block size distributions conform closely to the log normal distribution and kraus stoll regressions of security returns on untransformed block size are misspecified

market impact costs of institutional equity trades this article analyzes market impact costs of equity trading by one of the world s largest pension funds we find that on average these costs are small in terms of market disruption but substantial in terms of costs for the pension fund average market impact costs equal 20 basis points for buys and 30 basis points for sells furthermore we show that momentum and volatility have considerable influence on market impact costs other important determinants of these costs are trade type agency single or principal trade size trading strategy trading venue and industry sector additionally we find that the timing of trades plays a substantial role in explaining trading costs moreover we also establish a cost risk trade off the longer it takes to execute a trade the lower the expected market impact costs but the higher the volatility of these costs

the optimum quantity of money rule in the theory of public finance this paper examines optimal tax policy in a monetary economy in which money serves as an intermediate good that helps facilitate the conversion of scarce resources into tinal consumption goods by enabling consumers to economize on the costs of transacting it is shown that in such an environment even though distorting taxes must be levied for revenue purposes the optimal tax structure calls for abstaining from inflationary finance and adopting the optimum quantity of money rule

large block transactions the speed of response and temporary and permanent stock price effects abstract the paper investigates how quickly prices attain new equilibrium levels after large block transactions and measures the associated temporary and permanent price effects we find that prices adjust within at most three trades with most of the adjustment occurring in the first trade the temporary price effect for seller initiated transactions is related to block size but the temporary price effect observed for buyer initiated transactions is no larger than that observed in 100 share trades most of the price effect associated with block trades is permanent and is related to block size regardless of the initiating party

do credit rating agencies provide valuable information in market evaluation of sovereign default risk abstract we assess the marginal information value of credit rating announcements on market pricing of sovereign risk as measured by cds spreads we demonstrate that accurate assessment of the effect of credit rating changes must be conditioned on relevant information known prior to the rating change to this end we include macroeconomic conditions and the watch or outlook status of the bond immediately prior to the rating change in our information set the empirical work employs a dynamic panel macroeconomic model with 56 countries using monthly data from january 2004 through august 2012 we find that watch outlook status plays a critical role in accurately determining the information value of credit rating changes with point estimates in some cases changing by a factor of eight cds spreads respond most strongly to credit rating changes when bonds are on stable status but also respond significantly when bonds are on outlook status the least response is found for bonds on watch status at the time of the downgrade the downgrades in these cases are largely anticipated and the information value incorporated at the time of the negative watch announcements

order submission strategy and the curious case of marketable limit orders we provide empirical evidence on order submission strategy of investors with similar commitments to trade by comparing the execution costs of market orders and marketable limit orders i e limit orders with the same trading priority as market orders the results indicate the unconditional trading costs of marketable limit orders are significantly greater than market orders we attribute the difference in costs to a selection bias and provide evidence suggesting the order submission strategy decision is based on prevailing market conditions and stock characteristics after correcting for the selection bias the results show the average trader chooses the order type with lower conditional trading costs

external debt inflation and the public sector toward fiscal policy for sustainable growth which tradeoffs are involved in formulating an external debt strategy should expenditure be cut to improve the current account or will this reduce future output growth thus undermining the benefits of any debt reduction are there alternatives that allow satisfactory output growth without jeopardizing creditworthiness how can the necessary surplus of savings over investment be brought about at levels of investment high enough to sustain output growth should the government contribute to the internal adjustment by reducing its deficit macroeconomic targets for inflation and growth and creditworthiness constraints on debt issue impose restrictions on the extent to which deficits can be financed can the government cover the deficit within these targets and constraints the absence of such consistency forebodes future policy change and so undermines the credibility of the adjustment program the author uses empirical work on turkey to illustrate the interactions between fiscal deficits and the macroeconomic variables upon which fiscal consistency hinges

inflation stabilization and welfare the case of a distorted steady state this paper considers the appropriate stabilization objectives for monetary policy in a microfounded model with staggered price setting rotemberg and woodford 1997 and woodford 2002 have shown that under certain conditions a local approximation to the expected utility of the representative household in a model of this kind is related inversely to the expected discounted value of a conventional quadratic loss function in which each period s loss is a weighted average of squared deviations of inflation and an output gap measure from their optimal values zero however those derivations rely on an assumption of the existence of an output or employment subsidy that offsets the distortion due to the market power of monopolistically competitive price setters so that the steady state under a zero inflation policy involves an efficient level of output here we show how to dispense with this unappealing assumption so that a valid linear quadratic approximation to the optimal policy problem is possible even when the steady state is distorted to an arbitrary extent allowing for tax distortions as well as market power and when as a consequence it is necessary to take account of the effects of stabilization policy on the average level of output we again obtain a welfare theoretic loss function that involves both inflation and an appropriately defined output gap though the degree of distortion of the steady state affects both the weights on the two stabilization objectives and the definition of the welfare relevant output gap in the light of these results we reconsider the conditions under which complete price stability is optimal and find that they are more restrictive in the case of a distorted steady state we also consider the conditions under which pure randomization of monetary policy can be welfare improving and find that this is possible in the case of a sufficiently distorted steady state though the parameter values required are probably not empirically realistic

liquidity provision and the organizational form of nyse specialist firms we examine the influence of nyse specialist firm organizational form on the nature of liquidity provision we compare closely held firms whose specialists provide liquidity with their own capital to widely held firms whose specialists provide liquidity with diffusely owned capital we argue that specialists using their own capital have a greater incentive and ability to reduce adverse selection costs but face a greater cost of capital differences in the proportion of spreads due to adverse selection costs large trade frequency the sensitivity between depth and spreads and price stabilization support this argument recent studies by cao choe and hatheway 1997 and corwin 1999a document differences across specialist firms in execution costs trading halts due to order imbalances and market stabilization why these differences in liquidity provision exist however is not well understood we argue that differences in liquidity provision arise from differences in specialist firm organizational form firms that make markets with capital supplied by their specialists owner specialist firms offer economies with respect to asymmetric information costs while firms that make markets with diffusely owned capital employee specialist firms offer economies with respect to capital costs our empirical results support this argument since march 1997 the nyse has allowed listing firms to choose which specialist firm handles their stock from a pool provided by the nyse allocations committee new york stock exchange 1997 like the choice of debt dividend or compensation policies the choice of a specialist firm po

moral hazard and information sharing a model of financial information gathering agencies we propose a theory of information gathering agencies in a world of informational asymmetries and moral hazard in a setting in which true firm values are certified by screening agents whose payoffs depend on noisy ex post monitors of information quality the formation of information gathering agencies groups of screening agents is justified on two grounds first it enables screening agents to diversify their risky payoffs second it allows information sharing the first effect itself is insufficient despite the risk aversion of screening agents and the stochastic independence of the monitors used to compensate them this paper develops a model that explains the formation of financial institutions which acquire and process information for the purpose of certifying asset qualities but do not get involved in funding the model makes two basic assumptions the first is that there is an informational asymmetry in the capital market involving insiders possessing more accurate information about the true economic values of their firms than outsiders and the second is that those engaged in the production of information to rectify this asymmetry can gain from sharing their information examples of the information gathering agencies iga s we study are creditrating agencies financial newsletters standard and poor s value line investment counselors credit bureaus etc iga s are distinct from funding financial intermediaries ffi s like banks and credit unions that in addition to acquiring and processing information also issue claims against themselves fund their customers needs and transform asset characteristics from a modeling standpoint a key distinction between iga s and ffi s is that in the case of the latter outsiders depositors for instance do not necessarily have to assess the quality of the intermediary s information since the intermediary can be made accountable for this quality through the positions it takes in the screened assets thus models that explain ffi s focus on how the contracts offered by the intermediary ensure information reliability without reliance on explicit monitoring on the other hand because of the absence of loan and deposit type contracts to dissipate informational problems a model explaining iga s must rely on monitoring related mechanisms

automation versus intermediation evidence from treasuries going off the run this paper examines the choice of trading venue by dealers in u s treasury securities to determine when services provided by human intermediaries are difficult to replicate in fully automated trading systems when treasury securities go off the run their trading volume drops by more than 90 this decline in trading volume allows us to test whether intermediaries knowledge of the market and its participants can uncover hidden liquidity and facilitate better matching of customer orders in less active markets consistent with this hypothesis the market share of electronic intermediaries falls from 81 to 12 when securities go off the run electronic trading systems have been steadily increasing their share of securities trading in almost all financial markets as the amount of automation in financial markets increases it is natural to ask what services human intermediaries provide that are difficult or impossible to replicate in a fully automated trading system existing theory suggests that human intermediaries play at least two important functions first an intermediary s knowledge of the market and its participants may uncover hidden liquidity that facilitates quicker and more efficient matching of customer orders grossman 1992 the value of this matching function is greater when trading volume is low and matches are difficult to find second when information asymmetry is high the repeated interaction between an intermediary and its customers allows the intermediary to protect itself against informed trades and offer better prices to its customers seppi 1990 these two factors explain for example why electronic communications networks ecns have a greater market share for the largest and most actively traded nasdaq stocks while nasdaq market makers have a larger share in smaller less liquid stocks characterized by greater information asymmetry barclay hendershott and mccormick 2003 and why nyse specialists have higher participation rates in smaller less liquid stocks madhavan and sofianos 1998

a direct test of methods for inferring trade direction from intra day data this study directly tests the ability of several competing methods to identify market buy and sell orders using intra day quote and trade prices and identifies factors that affect the accuracy of the methods lee and ready s 1991 algorithm performs about the same as the tick test but the performance of both methods is worse than expected the results show that the use of either algorithm to classify trades can lead to significantly biased estimates of effective spreads and signed volume but the tick test provides better estimates of effective spreads and signed volume than lee and ready s method i introduction the use of intra day prices in empirical studies of securities markets is increasingly common and studies frequently require trades be identified as buyer or seller initiated unfortunately most data sets do not identify trade direction methods have however been proposed that allow trade direction to be inferred from adjacent prices and quotes the accuracy of these methods and the implica tions for microstructure research are still unresolved issues in large part because trade direction is unobservable in most financial data sets this study directly tests the ability of several competing methods to iden tify market buy and sell orders using intra day quote and trade prices the tests are conducted using the torq database a unique data set the new york stock exchange makes available to researchers that contains information on trades quotes and orders using the tick tests and lee and ready s lr hereafter 1991 method to classify trades as buys or sells and comparing the results to the direction of the actual orders i directly test the accuracy of the classification algorithms the tests also identify the factors that affect the accuracy of the clas sification methods additional tests demonstrate that using these algorithms can lead to biased inferences in two of their most common applications estimating effective spreads and signed volume trading test results also show that the tick

does anonymity matter in electronic limit order markets we develop a model in which limit order traders possess volatility information we show that in this case the size of the bid ask spread is informative about future volatility moreover if volatility information is in part private we establish that i the size of the bid ask spread and ii its informativeness about future volatility should change in the same direction when limit order traders identifiers stop being disclosed we test these predictions using data from the paris bourse as expected we find that the average quoted spread and its informativeness are significantly smaller when limit order traders identifiers are concealed these findings suggest that the limit order book is a channel for volatility information

inflation employment and welfare in the presence of transactions costs for some time now two issues of primary importance in macroeconomics and monetary theory have been the relation between inflation and unemployment the phillips curve and the optimum rate of inflation the optimum quantity of money in both of these areas the work of friedman and phelps has been influential friedman 1968 and phelps 1970 emphasized the role of inflationary expectations in generating a short run phillips curve like tradeoff but argued that in the long run the phillips curve is vertical that is friedman and phelps claimed that in the long run defined as the time period within which expectations fully adjust to actual circumstances inflation and employment should be uncorrelated more recently friedman 1977 has argued that since the rate of inflation and its variability tend to be positively related inflation and employment may be negatively related in the long run this is the positively sloped phillips curve phenomenon in recent years the link between inflation and employment has continued to receive considerable attention the vast rational expectations literature on the role of monetary policy and the equilibrium approach to the business cycle are in large part an outgrowth of the earlier phillips curve controversy the notion that there is an inverse long run relation between inflation and employment has recently received theoretical support from barro and santomero 1976 stockman 1981 and aschauer and greenwood 1983 related studies concerning the real effects of inflation have been undertaken by jovanovic 1982 stockman 1984 and abel 1985 the common element running through all of these papers is that the real effects of inflation arise from the transactions technology that underlies money demand l

the transmission of monetary policy in a multisector economy this article constructs and estimates a sticky price dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous production sectors firms in different sectors vary in their price rigidity production technology and the combination of material and investment inputs in particular firms buy inputs from all sectors using the actual input output matrix and capital flow table of the u s economy by relaxing the standard assumption of symmetry this model allows idiosyncratic sectoral dynamics in response to monetary policy shocks the model is estimated by the generalized method of moments using sectoral and aggregate u s time series

trend inflation and firms price setting rotemberg versus calvo we compare the calvo and rotemberg price setting mechanisms in a new keynesian model with trend inflation we show that the long run relationship between inflation and output is positive in rotemberg and negative in calvo the dynamics of the two models differ even to a first order approximation positive trend inflation enlarges the determinacy region in the rotemberg model whereas it shrinks it in the calvo model the responses of output and inflation to technology shocks are amplified by trend inflation in calvo whereas they are dampened in rotemberg the two models imply differing non linear adjustments after a disinflation

in search of liquidity block trades in the upstairs and downstairs markets we analyze the ability of various market mechanisms to provide liquidity for large equity trades using data on 21 077 block transactions in dow jones stocks we find that the down stairs nyse floor market is a significant source of liquidity although negotiation in the informal upstairs market provides better execution than the downstairs market for large trades these differences are economically small we find however that upstairs markets are used by traders who can credibly signal that their trades are liquidity motivated thus upstairs markets allow trades that may not otherwise occur article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

optimal portfolio liquidation with distress risk we analyze the problem of an investor who needs to unwind a portfolio in the face of recurring and uncertain liquidity needs with a model that accounts for both permanent and temporary price impact of trading we first show that a risk neutral investor who myopically deleverages his position to meet an immediate need for cash always prefers to sell more liquid assets if the investor faces the possibility of a downstream shock however the solution differs in several important ways if the ensuing shock is sufficiently large the nonmyopic investor unwinds positions more than immediately necessary and all else being equal prefers to retain more of the assets with low temporary price impact in order to hedge against possible distress more generally optimal liquidation involves selling strictly more of the assets with a lower ratio of permanent to temporary impact even if these assets are relatively illiquid the results suggest that properly accounting for the possibility of future shocks should play a role in managing large portfolios

serial correlation and the fixed effects model this paper generalizes the durbin watson type statistics to test the ols residuals from the fixed effects model for serial independence also generalized are the tests proposed by sargan and bhargava for the hypothesis that the residuals form a random walk a method for efficient estimation of the parameters is also developed finally an earnings function is estimated using the michigan survey of income dynamics in order to illustrate the uses of the tests and the estimation procedures developed in this paper

the inflation bias under calvo and rotemberg pricing new keynesian models rely heavily on two workhorse models of nominal inertia price contracts of random duration calvo 1983 and price adjustment costs rotemberg 1982 to generate a meaningful role for monetary policy these alternative descriptions of price stickiness are often used interchangeably since to a rst order of approximation they imply an isomorhpic phillips curve and if the steady state is ecient identical objectives for the policy maker and as a result in an lq framework the same policy conclusions

revenue maximizing inflation abstract a classic monetary policy result is that revenue maximization entails setting the inflation tax rate equal to the inverse of the interest semi elasticity of the demand for money the standard approach underlying cagan s rule is partial equilibrium in nature treating money demand as being given from outside the model and abstracting from the real effects of inflation this paper reconsiders the question of the revenue maximizing inflation rate in a general equilibrium framework with a labor leisure choice where money is held because it reduces transactions costs in this framework the revenue maximizing inflation tax rate is lower than that implied by cagan s rule

money and interest in a cash in advance economy the authors analyze an aggregative general equilibrium model in which the use of money is motivated by a cash in advance constraint applied to purchases of a subset of consumption goods the system is subject to both real and monetary shocks which are economy wide and observed by all they develop methods for verifying the existence of characterizing and explicitly calculating equilibria copyright 1987 by the econometric society

block trading and information revelation around quarterly earnings announcements the author investigate the empirical importance of information revelation in the pricing of block trades in particular he examine whether block prices are correlated with the unexpected part of firms quarterly earnings for his sample of block trades information revelation does indeed appear to be a significant factor shortly before earnings announcements article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

episodic liquidity crises cooperative and predatory trading we describe how episodic illiquidity arises from a breakdown in cooperation between market participants we first solve a one period trading game in continuous time using an asset pricing equation that accounts for the price impact of trading then in a multi period framework we describe an equilibrium in which traders cooperate most of the time through repeated interaction providing apparent liquidity to one another cooperation breaks down when the stakes are high leading to predatory trading and episodic illiquidity equilibrium strategies that involve cooperation across markets lead to less frequent episodic illiquidity but cause contagion when cooperation breaks down why is illiquidity rare and episodic pastor stambaugh 2003 detect only 14 aggregate low liquidity months over the time period 1962 to 1999 despite being of significant magnitude most of the episodes were short lived and were followed by long periods of liquidity 1 the origin of this empirical observation still remains a puzzle in this paper we attempt to shed light on this puzzle by developing a theoretical model in which a breakdown in cooperation between traders in the market manifests itself in predatory trading this mechanism leads to sudden and short lived illiquidity we develop a dynamic model of trading based on liquidity needs during each period a liquidity event may occur in which a trader is required to liquidate a large block of an asset in a relatively short time period this need for liquidity is observed by a tight oligopoly whose members may choose to predate or cooperate predation involves racing and fading the distressed trader to the market

the upstairs market for large block transactions analysis and measurement of price effects this article develops a model of the upstairs market where order size beliefs and prices are determined endogenously we test the model s predictions using unique data for 5 625 equity trades during the period 1985 to 1992 that are known to be upstairs transactions and are identified as either buyer or seller initiated we find that price movements prior to the trade date are significantly positively related to trade size consistent with information leakage as the block is shopped upstairs further the temporary price impact or liquidity effect is a concave function of order size which may result from upstairs intermediation

stock price effects and costs of secondary distributions abstract this study does not support the view that a large number of shares can be sold at the prevailing market price and at a small cost a significant stock price decrease is observed at the initial announcement of secondary distributions the price declines are greater for offerings by officers and directors and for larger offerings but are significant for all types of sellers and for large and small offerings there is no significant price decline at the offering when secondaries are announced in advance underwriting and other selling costs are substantial and are positively related to relative offering size

seigniorage maximizing inflation under sticky prices what is the seigniorage maximizing level of inflation three models formulae for the seigniorage maximizing inflation rate smir are compared a sticky price model prescribes a somewhat lower smir to cagan s formula and a variant of a flex price model due to kimbrough 2006 the models differ markedly in how inflation distorts the labor market the sticky price calvo model implies that inflation and output are negatively related and that output is falling in price stickiness interestingly if our version of the calvo model is to be believed the level of inflation experienced recently in advanced economies such as the united states and the united kingdom may be quite close to the smir

relative price distortions and inflation persistence sticky price models often suggest that relative price distortion is a major cost of inflation we provide an intuition for this even at low rates inflation strongly affects price dispersion which in turn has an impact on the economy qualitatively similar to and of the order of magnitude of a negative shift in productivity the utility cost of price dispersion is quantified and its impact on optimal monetary policy discussed price dispersion is incorporated into a linearised model strikingly a contractionary nominal shock has a persistent negative hump shaped impact on inflation but may have a positive hump shaped impact on output

transparency and liquidity a study of block trades on the london stock exchange under different publication rules this article examines whether reducing a market s transparency by delaying the publication of prices for block trades has any impact on liquidity the analysis uses a sample of 5987 blocks from the london stock exchange that cover three different publication regimes immediate 1987 88 90 minutes 1991 92 and 24 hours 1989 90 delaying publication does not affect the time taken by prices to reach a new level which is rapid under all regimes spreads differ across years but their size relates more closely to market volatility than to speed of publication there is therefore no gain in liquidity from delayed publication

a note on execution costs for stock index futures information versus liquidity effects this paper examines execution costs and the impact of trade size for stock index futures using price volume transaction data from the london international financial futures and options exchange consistent with subrahmanyam rev financ stud 4 1991 11 we find that effective half spreads in the stock index futures market are small compared to stock markets and that trades in stock index futures have only a small permanent price impact this result is important as it helps to better understand the success of equity index products such as index futures and exchange traded funds we also find that there is no asymmetry in the post trade price reaction between purchases and sales for stock index futures across various trade sizes this result is consistent with the conjecture in chan and lakonishok j financ econ 33 1993 173 that the asymmetry surrounding block trades in stock markets is due to the high cost of short selling and the general reluctance of traders to short sell on stock markets c 2004 elsevier b v all rights reserved

the cost of institutional equity trades presented are an overview of the findings from the recent literature on the cost of u s equity trades for institutional investors and new evidence on trading costs from a large sample of institutional trades the findings discussed have important implications for policymakers and investors implicit trading costs are economically significant equity trading costs vary considerably and vary systematically with trade difficulty and order placement strategy and whether a trade price represents best execution depends on detailed data for the trade s entire order submission process especially information on pretrade decision variables such as the trading horizon

dealer liquidity in an auction market evidence from the london stock exchange we analyse the trade characteristics and market conditions which determine the market share of a continuous auction trading system at the london stock exchange where a network of broker dealer firms is also available for trade we show that execution and information risks govern the choice of execution venue further we uncover strong commonality in the market share of the order book across stocks and find that variables proxying for market wide liquidity and informational risks also affect the choice of trading venue our results suggest that competing off book liquidity suppliers voluntarily perform at least some of the stabilisation functions normally assigned to designated market makers

optimal fiscal and monetary policy under sticky prices this paper studies optimal fiscal and monetary policy under sticky product prices the theoretical framework is a stochastic production economy without capital the government finances an exogenous stream of purchases by levying distortionary income taxes printing money and issuing one period nominally risk free bonds the main findings of the paper are first for a miniscule degree of price stickiness i e many times below available empirical estimates the optimal volatility of inflation is near zero this result stands in stark contrast with the high volatility of inflation implied by the ramsey allocation when prices are flexible the finding is in line with a recent body of work on optimal monetary policy under nominal rigidities that ignores the role of optimal fiscal policy second even small deviations from full price flexibility induce near random walk behavior in government debt and tax rates third sluggish price adjustment raises the average nominal interest rate above the one called for by the friedman rule finally an interest rate feedback rule whereby the nominal interest rate depends on inflation and output fits well the data emanating from the ramsey economy however the fitted rule is not of the taylor type for the implied inflation coefficient is less than one and close to zero and the output coefficient is negative jel classification e52 e61 e63

credit ratings and the pricing of sovereign debt during the euro crisis this paper identifies the impact of credit rating changes on the sovereign spreads in europe and investigates the macro and financial factors that account for the time varying effects of a given credit rating change we find that changes of ratings are informative significant economically and robust even after controlling for conventional fundamentals a one unit rise in the average credit rating in a scale index of 25 ratings decreases cds spreads by about 45 basis points on average however the association between credit rating changes and spreads follows a complicated non linear pattern dependent on the level of the credit rating applying a non linear spline regression we find high sensitivity large change in spreads for a given change in ratings at the very low end of credit ratings and then a u shape pattern ratings at the moderately low end b and very high end of credit levels above a are fairly insensitive while middle ratings are quite sensitive to credit rating changes with the highest sensitivity at the bb level we also find that european countries had quite similar cds responses to credit rating changes during the pre crisis period but that large differences emerged between the now highlysensitive giips group and other european country groupings eu and euro area excluding giips and the non eu area we also find that contagion from changing the ranking of the giips on other euro countries disappears when own country credit rating changes are taken into account in contrast a decline in the credit rating in the giips area is transmitted as a decline in the cds spread of non euro eu which may be deemed as a substitute asset that increases in demand when the perceived risk of giips sovereign debt increases

what factors increase the risk of incurring high market impact costs this article applies quantile regression to assess the factors that influence the risk of incurring high trading costs using data on the equity trades of the world s second largest pension fund in the first quarter of 2002 we show that trade timing momentum volatility and the type of broker intermediation are the major determinants of the risk of incurring high trading costs such risk is increased substantially by either high or low momentum and by strong volatility moreover agency trades are substantially more risky in terms of trading costs than similar principal trades finally we show that the quantile regression model succeeds well in forecasting future trading costs

second order approximation to the rotemberg model around a distorted steady state social welfare objectives are investigated when changing prices is costly rotemberg 1982 a quadratic welfare function is derived with a distorted steady state implying inflation and output stabilization goals economic distortions influence inflation aversion in a way that differs from calvo models

reserve requirements and the inflation tax the inflation tax on currency and required bank reserves is modeled in a general equilibrium setting by specifying a transactions technology in which currency and demand deposits allow agents to economize on time spent transacting in the goods market revenue maximizing conditions for the nominal interest rate and reserve ratio are analyzed for any given revenue requirement less than the revenue maximizing level minimization of the welfare costs of inflationary finance results in the choice of a combination of the interest rate and reserve ratio that lies on a set of tangency points formed by iso revenue and iso welfare curves copyright 1989 by ohio state university press

rating the rating agencies anticipating currency crises or debt crises abstract we revisit the question whether sovereign ratings predict financial crises in line with previous studies we find that ratings do not predict currency crises and are instead downgraded ex post however the likelihood of currency crisis and the implied probability of sovereign default are not closely linked in emerging markets post 1994 when debt crises are defined as sovereign distress when spreads are higher than 1000 basis points or 10 percentage points we find that access to international capital markets is reduced by half in addition although sovereign distress events last for typically 5 2 consecutive months they can persist for longer periods up to nine quarters finally lagged ratings and ratings changes including negative outlooks and credit watches are useful in anticipating sovereign distress