international real interest rate equalization a multivariate time series approach this paper investigates the dynamic behaviour of monthly ex post real interest rates from several countries over the period 1980 to 1991 it is found that real interest rates are stationary over this period and that deviations from real interest parity are significant in the short run but disappear in the long run the latter evidence is established using the concept of co dependent time series proposed by gourieroux and peaucelle 1989 for the analysis of multivariate stationary time series

testing for the long run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation using cointegration techniques 1989 testing for the long run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation using cointegration techniques applied economics vol 21 no 4 pp 439 447

integrated regressors and tests of the permanent income hypothesis abstract we use recent research on estimation and testing in the presence of unit roots to argue that hall s 1978 t and f tests of whether consumption is predicted by lagged income or by lags of consumption beyond the first are asymptotically valid a monte carlo experiment suggests that the asymptotic t and f distributions provide a good approximation to the actual finite sample distribution

the effect of political risk on the forward exchange bias the case of elections abstract the unsuccesful search for explanations of the forward bias has concentrated on variables suggested by traditional models of risk political news although important to foreign exchange traders has not been considered as a determinant of the forward bias i present a model in which the forward bias changes when the governing party changes elections in major industrial countries provide a natural test of the model the forward bias changed as predicted after half of the 13 elections in canada france the united kingdom and the united states between 1973 and 1985 politics provides useful information for foreign exchange traders which economists should not ignore

adaptive estimation of cointegrated models simulation evidence and an application to the forward exchange market the paper reports simulation and empirical evidence on the finite sample performance of adaptive estimators in cointegrated systems adaptive estimators are asymptotically efficient even when the shape of the likelihood function is unknown we consider two representations of cointegrated systems triangular cointegrating regressions and error correction models the motivation for and advantages of adaptive estimators in such systems are discussed and their construction is described we report results from the estimation of a forward exchange market unbiasedness regression using the adaptive and competing estimators and provide related monte carlo simulation evidence on the performance of the estimators copyright 1999 john wiley sons ltd

bivariate cointegration among european monetary system exchange rates in past research on the long run behaviour of exchange rates the possibility of cointegration among spot rates has been rejected this rejection is surprising as some exchange rates are bound by official agreements to comove over time the european monetary system ems is an example of such an officially coordinating system in this paper we extend past research by focusing on only ems rates and use potentially more powerful cointegration tests to show that ems rates are cointegrated

the speculative efficiency hypothesis the hypothesis that forward prices are the best unbiased forecast of future spot prices is often presented in the economic and financial analysis of futures markets this paper considers the hypothesis independently of its implications for rational expectations or market efficiency and in order to stress this fact the term speculative efficiency is used to characterize the state envisaged under the hypothesis if a market is subject to efficient speculation the supply of speculative funds is infinitely elastic at the forward price that is equal to the expected future spot price the expected future spot price is a market price determined as the solution to the underlying rational expectations macroeconomic model although the paper is primarily concerned with testing this hypothesis in the foreign exchange market the methodology introduced in the paper is of general application to all futures markets this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

is the real interest rate parity condition affected by the method of calculating real interest rates although the real interest rate parity rirp hypothesis has been extensively tested there are no conclusive findings we argue that the mixed findings are a result of the different methods used to calculate the real interest rate in this article we examine whether the rirp holds for four oecd countries using five different methods for computing the real interest rate the results indicate that the connection between real interest rates tends to be sensitive to the computational method of the real interest rate thus authors have to be careful when comparing results across existing studies since the type of computational method might be responsible for differences in conclusions of the validity of the rirp

market efficiency in agricultural futures markets market efficiency and unbiasedness are tested in four agricultural commodity futures markets live cattle hogs corn and soybean meal using cointegration and error correction models with gqarch in mean processes results indicate each market is unbiased in the long run although cattle hogs and corn futures markets exhibit short run inefficiencies and pricing biases models for cattle and corn outperform futures prices in out of sample forecasting results also suggest short run time varying risk premiums in cattle and hog futures markets

industrial districts social cohesion and economic decline in italy the paper argues that the so called canonical view of the italian industrial district id depicts it as a system whose economic and social vitality requires the interaction between two major sub systems a community of people and a community of firms a range of circumstances including insufficient aggregate demand competition from low cost coun tries and technological change have determined inconsistencies between the rationales of these two sub systems as a result lead firms have emerged that substitute the id as coordinating instances in the pursuit of their goals they tend to prefer cost scrapping to quality enhancement thereby determining a competition that further undermines the id as a system the paper contends that this outcome is not the only possible one an alternative would require the regulatory as opposed to merely permissive action of pub lic actors in that it would have to change the incentive system that leads firms to choose short sighted strategies

monetary targeting in the netherlands an application of cointegration tests there are two criteria to choose an intermediate variable for monetary targeting first the money demand function needs to be stable and second the monetary authorities should be able to control the target variable given the available instruments in this paper we examine whether m1 and m2 in the netherlands fulfil the first requirement i e we investigate whether a stable relationship exists between these monetary variables and key macroeconomic variables co integration techniques are used which are very well suited for this purpose monetary policy in the netherlands has been directed towards the growth rate of broad money m2 the present findings do not suport the choice of m2 as an intermediate target for monetary policy in the netherlands a stable long term relationship between m2 and real nnp and long and short term interest rates does not exist the results for m1 are considerbly better though not favourable at all scores the estimated moeny demand function for m1 is a good indicator for m

from rational actor to efficient complexity manager exorcising the ghost of homo economicus with a unified synthesis of cognition research it is now commonplace to note that economics canonical model of humans as rational self interested utility maximizers homo economicus is both descriptively misleading and often insufficiently predictive however certain outdated assumptions tied to homo economicus persist often influencing discourse and research design even in sustainability oriented fields we argue this ghost of homo economicus endures because the diversity of findings that confound the canonical model has surfaced across multiple behavioral and cognitive sciences each with its own terminology and focus area as such a unified accessible synthesis of this new information has yet to emerge in this paper we review recent insights from across the behavioral and cognitive sciences and propose an efficient complexity manager ecm model homo efficens as the best synthesizing option the crux of this model is that our species works within biological limits to efficiently filter massive environmental complexity this is achieved largely through analogical or case based reasoning we explain this synthesized model using a series of accessible metaphors finally we speculate on how this model may enrich future sustainable development research insofar as it points to fruitful units of analysis can stimulate methodological innovation and provide a more explicit theoretical foundation for the field

mean reversion in g 10 nominal exchange rates according to conventional wisdom industrial country floating exchange rates contain unit roots sur tests on panels of monthly group of ten g 10 log nominal rates reject the null of unit roots for various samples over the current float with significance levels from 0 5 to 15 on average in out of sample forecasts mean reversion models beat random walks significantly in some forecast periods for monthly data the range of expected usd dem appreciation rates exceeds 15 per year in the mean reversion model mean reversion places strong restrictions on international models over the sample period the g 10 had to run monetary policies consistent with stable long run nominal rates

error correction mechanisms the interface between economic theory and applied econometrics is often one of uneasy compromise with the pragmatic justification for many accepted procedures resting on a theoretical base this paper examines the surprisingly strong arguments that exist in terms of economic theory for the use of error correction mechanisms in the specification of short run dynamic adjustment a common heresy exists that while economic theory provides a detailed analysis of comparative static equilibria it can offer no guidance as to the appropriate specification of dynamic adjustment towards an equilibrium perhaps in consequence it is not uncommon to find examples where the necessary dynamic specification is achieved by tacking onto an existing equilibrium specification some relatively ad hoc short run adjustment scheme the intercession of stochastic arguments in this process is confused and critical implications are frequently ignored in practice but perhaps more importantly there will typically be no guarantee that the dynamic specification is consistent with the prescribed equilibrium consistency in this sense requires that the short run dynamic adjustment be directed by the perceived disequilibrium and that eventual convergence to the equilibrium position be ensured that two separate theoretical arguments co exist within the final specification is the root cause of many difficulties both theoretical and empirical this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

a note on exchange rate expectations and nominal interest differentials a test of the fisher hypothesis this note tests the hypothesis that nominal interest differentials between similar assets denominated in different currencies can be explained entirely by the expected change in the exchange rate over the holding period this proposition often called the fisher open hypothesis or the hypothesis of perfect asset substitutability has been a major component of recent theories of exchange rate determination and has important implications for monetary policy 1 the fisher hypothesis differs from the covered interest parity theorem enunciated by keynes 11 while covered interest parity equates the nominal interest differential between financial centers to a known premium or discount on forward foreign exchange and is thus in principle riskless fisher parity involves risk in an essential way the two conditions are equivalent only when forward exchange rates equal expected future spot rates recent theoretical work for example that of grauer litzenberger and stehle 8 kouri 12 and frankel 6 shows that this need not be the case when market participants are risk averse thus while covered interest parity must always hold exactly in an informationally efficient asset market with no transactions costs fisher parity need not nominal interest differentials may reflect risk premia in addition to expected exchange rate movements 2 it should be emphasized at the outset that the tests conducted in this paper are really joint tests of the fisher hypothesis and a weak form of foreign exchange market informational efficiency levich 14 has argued that tests of market efficiency are always joint tests involving some hypothesized structure of normal equilibrium returns below we assume informational efficiency and instead test fisher s hypothesized arbitrage condition that nominal interest differentials equal expected percentage changes in exchange rates

the unbiased forward rate hypothesis re examined abstract this paper examines the unbiased forward rate hypothesis using an error correction model ecm previous tests have utilized mainly two specifications differences and levels the advantage of the ecm is that the parameters of the level specification appear in the error correction term and hence the ecm provides a direct link to the levels specification in this paper we fully exploit this link and demonstrate that both specifications yield essentially the same results when the ecm is explicitly derived from a levels specification and the levels parameters are estimated simultaneously with other parameters of the ecm

cointegration results of farm incomes and production costs in us agriculture this study analyses the dynamic relationships between farm incomes and production costs in the us agricultural industry by applying the cointegration technique the results provide evidence of long run equilibrium relationships between cash marketings and production costs however the results do not show such relationships between total revenues which include cash marketings and government payments and production costs chief conclusions of this study are that if market forces alone were to guide farmers decisions one could expert long run equilibrium relationships between the cash receipts and costs however government interventions seem to disrupt this equilibrium the results also suggest that production costs can be forecast using cash marketings which are found to be weakly exogenous the error correction model and vector autoregression model are used to estimate and compare simulation performances of the cointegrated system of cash marketings and production costs

dollar sterling exchange rate in the 1920s purchasing power parity and the norman conquest of 4 86 the issue of long run purchasing power parity for the us dollar uk sterling exchange rate during the 1920s float is re examined and it is concluded that a form of long run purchasing power parity did in fact hold for dollar sterling during this period the new results are also employed to gauge the degree of overvaluation of sterling relative to the imposed pre war parity of 4 86 on its return to gold in 1925 and for 12 months afterwards

an empirical investigation into the international real interest rate linkages linear dynamic stochastic processes are derived for the ex ante real interest rates from those followed by the ex post real rates under the identifying assumption of rational expectations the technique is used to study instantaneous and lagged effects of u s ex ante real rates on a number of oecd ex ante real rates the author finds significant contemporaneous correlations between ex ante real rates in the long run however real rates seem to be insulated

robust tests of forward exchange market efficiency with empirical evidence from the 1920s summary this paper provides a robust statistical approach to testing the unbiasedness hypothesis in forward exchange market efficiency studies the methods we use allow us to work explicitly with levels rather than differenced data they are statistically robust to data distributions with heavy tails and they can be applied to data sets where the frequency of observation and the futures maturity do not coincide in addition our methods allow for stochastic trend non stationarity and general forms of serial dependence the methods are applied to daily data of spot exchange rates and forward exchange rates during the 1920s which marked the first episode of a broadly general floating exchange rate system the tail behaviour of the data is analysed using an adaptive data based method for estimating the tail slope of the density the results confirm the need for the use of robust regression methods we find cointegration between the forward rate and spot rate for the four currencies we consider the belgian and french francs the italian lira and the us dollar all measured against the british pound we find support for a stationary risk premium in the case of the belgian franc the italian lira and the us dollar and we find support for the simple market efficiency hypothesis where the forward rate is an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate and there is a zero mean risk premium in the case of the us dollar

testing for stationarity and co integration an application to saudi arabian monetary data 1990 testing for stationarity and co integration an application to saudi arabian monetary data applied economics vol 22 no 11 pp 1577 1590

cointegration and market integration an application to the indonesian rice market this article suggests improvements in the use of regression analysis to measure spatial market integration the procedure pioneered by ravallion is still widespread but is valid only under certain conditions of exogeneity the alternative offered here is an error correction mechanism which makes it possible to test for exogeneity as well as indicating the direction and strength of causality in price formation between markets the method is illustrated with data on rice prices in different parts of the indonesian market the results confirm among other things that supply sources are more important than demand sources in driving prices

does the exchange rate follow a random walk a monte carlo study of four tests for a random walk abstract several authors have urged that real and nominal exchange rates follow a random walk conditions under which the exchange rate follows a random walk are reviewed in this paper many of these do not appear to hold therefore the empirical evidence presents a puzzle some evidence suggets the exchange rate follows a random walk while other evidence suggests the opposite should be true this paper attempts to reconcile the evidence it is argued that the tests for a random walk have low power monte carlo evidence on four tests for a random walk is presented that suppors this claim

are real interest rates equal across countries an empirical investigation of international parity conditions this paper conducts empirical tests of the equality of real interest rates across countries the empirical evidence strongly rejects the hypothesis of real rate equality and the joint hypotheses of uncovered interest parity and ex ante relative ppp or the unbiasedness of forward rate forecasts and ex ante relative ppp the evidence suggests that it is worth studying open economy macroeconomic models which allow 1 domestic real rates to differ from world rates 2 time varying risk premiums in the forward market or 3 deviations from ex ante relative ppp the relationship of real interest rates across countries is of central importance to our understanding of open economy macroeconomics in some models where there is costless international arbitrage in goods and financial assets real interest rates for comparable securities should be equal across countries this has been a feature of much of the early research in the monetary approach to exchange rates e g frenkel 11 and bilson 2 on the other hand finance theory indicates that risk premia may well differ for comparable securities denominated in different currencies solnick 27 roll and solnick 26 stulz 28 fama and farber 7 hansen and hodrick 17 and dornbusch 6 and more recent theoretical models in the exchange rate literature such as dornbusch 5 frankel 10 and mussa 24 depend on real rates differing between countries in the short run the proposition that real rates are equal across countries is worth studying

cointegration market integration and market efficiency abstract this paper uses a standard dynamic general equilibrium asset pricing model to study the relationship among the concepts of efficient markets integrated markets and cointegrated prices within this setting we show that these concepts are independent of one another and any zero one two or three of these characteristics can emerge in equilibrium depending upon taste endowment and technology parameters in particular the results of tests of cointegration among asset prices have no implications about market efficiency or market integration without additional restrictions on the economy or economies

a note on cointegration and international capital market efficiency abstract in a recent paper in the jimf crowder 1994 claims that evidence that spot exchange rates are cointegrated and forward premiums are non stationary implies international capital markets are not efficient this note argues that the cointegration properties of spot exchange rates are independent of the efficiency or inefficiency of financial markets

foreign exchange market efficiency revisited abstract the cointegration of spot rates is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition to account for the lack of foreign exchange market efficiency instead crowder crowder w 1994 1996 j int money finance 13 551 564 15 661 664 and engel engel c 1996 j int money finance 15 557 560 claimed that the stationarity of the forward premium is crucial to the hypothesis of market efficiency in this paper we employ the panel unit root test of im et al to examine the stationarity of forward premia and interest differentials among nine oecd countries we reject the unit root null for both the time series of the forward premium and interest differential which in turn supports the hypothesis of foreign exchange market efficiency

arbitrage cointegration and testing the unbiasedness hypothesis in financial markets we use a no arbitrage cost of carry asset pricing model to show that the existence of coin tegration between spot and forward futures prices depends on the time series properties of the cost of carry we argue that the conditions for cointegration are more likely to hold in currency markets than in commodity markets explaining many of the empirical results in the literature we also use this model to demonstrate why the forward rate forecast error the basis and the forward premium are serially correlated and to develop econometric tests ofthe unbiasedness hypothesis sometimes called the simple efficiency hypothesis in various financial markets the unbiasedness hypothesis is so prevalent in the finance liter ature that many tests for it have been developed we examine four of the common tests and and use our cointegration results to demonstrate why each of these tests should reject the null hypothesis of unbiasedness we find strong support for our hypothesis in the existing empirical literature

market efficiency and cointegration an application to the sterling and deutschemark exchange markets abstract the assumption that the foreign exchange market is efficient that is that agents are risk neutral and use all available information rationally so that the forward exchange rate is an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate is a property often imposed in theoretical international macroeconomic models although a vast empirical literature has evolved to test market efficiency we use recent developments in the theory of cointegration to provide new methods of testing several aspects of foreign exchange market efficiency we ffind evidence inconsistent with market efficiency for both germany and the united kingdom

measuring global money market interrelationships an investigation of five major world currencies abstract this paper extends the study of global money market integration in two primary directions first a technique which combines stationarity and cointegration tests as a basis for constructing an error correction model is applied to assess the existence of long run equilibrium relationships between money market series second analysis for the increasingly significant asian offshore markets of singapore and hong kong is added to traditional european and national markets analysis major findings are 1 the error correction model is an appropriate technique for identifying causality relationships and 2 major domestic markets and included offshore markets are partially segmented

real interest rate equalization and the integration of international financial markets abstract this paper argues that conventional regression tests of real interest rate equality may be misleading because they neglect to consider transactions costs a transactions cost band may inhibit the one to one correspondence between changes in real rates in alternative countries that is presumed by conventional tests statistical problems which may lead to incorrect inferences in conventional tests are also discussed alternative tests which overcome these limitations are developed and applied to real interest rates for ten different countries the alternative tests generate much stronger support for interest parity than is found in the existing literature

econometric modelling of non ferrous metal prices abstract this article evaluates the significance of the empirical models and the distributional properties of prices in non ferrous metal spots and futures markets published in leading refereed economics and finance journals between 1980 and 2002 the survey focuses on econometric analyses of pricing and return models applied to exchange based spot and futures markets for the main industrially used non ferrous metals namely aluminium copper lead nickel tin and zinc published empirical research is evaluated in the light of the type of contract examined frequency of data used choice of both dependent and explanatory variables use of proxy variables type of model chosen economic hypotheses tested methods of estimation and calculation of ses for inference reported descriptive statistics use of diagnostic tests of auxiliary assumptions use of nested and non nested tests use of information criteria and empirical implications for non ferrous metals

is there a role for commodity prices in the design of monetary policy some empirical the consumer price index in the united states follows a non trend stationary stochastic process that describes the index as drifting randomly upward without bound monetarists have long pointed to similar properties in the time series of monetary aggregates as the source of this incipient inflation their solution to this problem is close adherence by the central bank to targets for a monetary or reserve aggregate that correspond to slow and steady monetary growth with any periods of excessive monetary growth subsequently offset this would produce monetary series that are trend stationary if the demand for money is reasonably stable price series would also become trend stationary and for properly chosen targets the price level would be bounded with a mean inflation rate of zero

cointegration how short is the long run abstract when testing for cointegration and faced with short sample periods it is common for researchers to turn to more frequently sampled observations that is to move from annual to quarterly or monthly data in order to increase the number of observations we argue that such a gain in the degrees of freedom is more apparent than real essentially cointegration is a long run concept and hence requires long spans of data to give tests for cointegration much power rather than merely large numbers of observations using monte carlo simulations we demonstrate this for four popular tests for cointegration

a note on the efficiency of the london metal exchange abstract in this note we examine the market efficiency hypothesis with respect to six metals traded on the london metal exchange lme using overlapping data and both single and multimarket models we find evidence contradictory to the tenet that the lme is an efficient market

the effects of the yuan dollar exchange rate on agricultural commodity trade between the united states china and their competitors the united states claims that the undervaluation of chinese currency the yuan causes u s exports to china to decrease and imports from china to increase furthermore because the yuan is undervalued only against the dollar u s competitors have an advantage in exporting to china and china has an advantage over its competitors in exporting to the united states this study develops a theoretical model to analyze the effect of the yuan undervaluation on prices supply demand and trade in the united states china and their competitors this study applies a cointegration error correction model to empirically quantify the short run and long run effects of the devaluation of the yuan on important agricultural commodities traded between the united states china and their competitors these commodities include chinese imports of milk soybeans and cotton from the united states and u s imports of beans fruit juice and fruit from china the results show that yuan devaluation causes chinese imports of u s milk soybeans and cotton to decline and u s imports of beans fruit juice and fruit from china to increase in the short run and in the long run

the relative adjustment of wages and prices direct tests within a multiple equation system in order to assess the relative rigidity of the aggregate price level and the nominal wage rate most researchers have focused on the implied behaviour of the real wage rate in response to a purely demand disturbance the present work examines the explicit behaviour of the two variables and is therefore able to analyse the variables short run responses within the context of their defined long run behaviour while the paper reports evidence of long run stability in the real wage rate additional evidence is presented which supports both sticky price and sticky wage models the determining factor is the choice of lag

a note on international real interest rate differentials abstrac t this note empirically examines the issue of real interest rate equalization across countries the equality of real interest rates is implied by two frequently employed concepts of equilibrium in international asset capital and commodity markets and imposes certain time series restrictions on ex post real interest rates statistical tests of these restrictions strongly reject the hypothesis that real interest rates have been equal across countries

understanding the fisher equation it is argued that univariate long memory estimates based on ex post data tend to underestimate the persistence of ex ante variables and hence that of the ex post variables themselves because of the presence of unanticipated shocks whose short run volatility masks the degree of long range dependence in the data empirical estimates of long range dependence in the fisher equation are shown to manifest this problem and lead to an apparent imbalance in the memory characteristics of the variables in the fisher equation evidence in support of this typical underestimation is provided by results obtained with inflation forecast survey data and by direct calculation of the finite sample biases to address the problem of bias the paper introduces a bivariate exact whittle bew estimator that explicitly allows for the presence of short memory noise in the data the new procedure enhances the empirical capacity to separate low frequency behaviour from high frequency fluctuations and it produces estimates of long range dependence that are much less biased when there is noise contaminated data empirical estimates from the bew method suggest that the three fisher variables are integrated of the same order with memory parameter in the range 0 75 1 since the integration orders are balanced the ex ante real rate has the same degree of persistence as expected inflation thereby furnishing evidence against the existence of a fractional cointegrating relation among the fisher variables and correspondingly showing little support for a long run form of fisher hypothesis copyright 2004 john wiley sons ltd

cointegration and predictability of asset prices abstract this article argues that whatever concerns one might have about the identification of a cointegrating relationship with market inefficiency cointegration tests can still be usefully employed to investigate the predictability of asset prices we examine the case of n dimensional systems and show that the standard assumption made in the literature that cointegration implies predictability of all n asset prices is not valid in the presence of r cointegrating vectors only r prices are predictable and standard wald or lm tests carried out within johansen s maximum likelihood ml framework can be used to establish for which prices unpredictability does not hold similarly one can distinguish between joint unpredictability in the short and long run when asset prices are driven by fundamentals

are foreign exchange forecasts rational new evidence from survey data abstract tests of rationality in foreign exchange markets have been inconclusive because of disagreement over the relevant asset pricing model this paper uses a newly available set of data on foreign exchange expectations to directly test the rationality of four foreign currency markets overall the results reject the rational expectations hypothesis

rationality of survey data and tests for market efficiency in the foreign exchange markets abstract this paper tests the rational expectations hypothesis reh and the market efficiency hypothesis meh in the foreign exchange markets using survey data on expectations our results show that the spot exchange rates expected exchange rates and the forward rates all follow a random walk process hence the cointegration theory is employed to test the reh and meh all the test statistics support the reh but fail to support the meh we use survey data on expectations to identify the causes behind this failure of the meh jel f31 g14

a re examination of the unbiased forward rate hypothesis in the presence of multiple unknown structural breaks we test the unbiased forward rate ufr hypothesis using new tests for cointegration developed by hatemi j 2008a that allows for multiple unknown structural breaks we analyse the australian dollar aud euro eur british pound gbp and japanese yen jpy versus the us dollar usd spot rates and forward rates relationship during the period 5 january 1999 to 28 december 2006 we find that the ufr does hold when the effects of the unknown structural breaks are taken into account the parameters that we obtained were close to unity hence taking into account transaction cost and the existence of a risk premium earning arbitrage profits may still not be possible thus the markets for these currencies may still be considered as efficient

uncovered interest parity monetary policy and time varying risk premia abstract in a recent paper mccallum argued that monetary policy behavior can be responsible for the apparent empirical failure of uncovered interest parity uip the present paper investigates whether optimizing policy behavior can account for the observed regime dependence of uip evidence the main result is that the tradeoff between interest rate and exchange rate stability is a potential candidate for the explanation of the apparent failure of uip and that the consideration of policy reactions can explain why deviations from uip differ systematically by the exchange rate regime

forward exchange market unbiasedness the case of the australian dollar since 1984 abstract this paper implements a robust statistical approach to regression with non stationary time series the methods were recently developed in other work and are briefly exposited here they allow us to perform regressions in levels with non stationary time series data they accommodate data distributions with heavy tails and they permit serial dependence and temporal heterogeneity of unknown form in the equation errors with these features the methods are well suited to applications with frequently sampled exchange rate data which generally display all of these empirical characteristics our application here is to daily data on spot and forward exchange rates between the australian and us dollars over the period 1984 1991 following the deregulation of the australian foreign exchange market we find big differences between the robust and the non robust regression outcomes and in the associated statistical tests of the hypothesis that the forward rate is an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate the robust tests reject the unbiasedness hypothesis but still give the forward rate an important role as a predictor of the future spot rate

on the restricted cointegration test as a test of the rational expectations hypothesis one of the main consequences of the cointegration revolution on the domain of the direct tests of the rational expectations hypothesis reh was the substitution of the restricted cointegration test rct for the unbiasedness test however the results of a monte carlo study show that a simple t test can be much more powerful than the rct it is argued that the rct is adequate to investigate the asymptotic rationality but that it is not sufficient to assess the muthian rationality of expectations the discussion is empirically illustrated with the test of the reh for the portuguese retail trade inflation expectations

tests of exchange market efficiency fragile evidence from cointegration tests abstract several recent papers have employed engle and granger 1987 cointegration tests to determine whether or not markets are efficient we use a new test for cointegration due to johansen 1988 to examine market efficiency with respect to the us dollar exchange rates for canadian japanese and west german currencies the fragile nature of the test indications suggests that cointegration methodologies cannot be relied upon to provide reliable evidence on market efficiency

the expectations hypothesis of the term structure tests on us german french and uk euro rates abstract this paper tests the expectations hypothesis of the term structure on us german french and uk euro rates three tests are examined the first is based on forward rates and the other two are based on the interest rates spread first we show that the sign puzzle highlighted by campbell and shiller campbell j y shiller r j 1991 yield spreads and interest rate movements a bird s eye view review of economic studies 58 495 514 for us data does not arise in the cases of french and uk short term rates second we propose tests for the expectations hypothesis based on error correction models with these tests the sign puzzle disappears but the country puzzle remains

inflation and real interest rates on assets with different risk characteristics given the importance of ex ante real interest rates to economic decision making it is no surprise that much empirical research focuses on them 1 several recent studies find that the ex ante real returns for short term u s treasury securities are not constant and are negatively correlated both with inflation and with nominal interest rates this paper examines the extent to which these findings hold for assets of longer maturity are robust with respect to the choice of price index and are stable over time we expand the set of assets studied to include those of longer maturity both publicly and privately issued for two reasons first their ex ante real returns may differ substantially from that of a short term nominally riskless security second because longer maturity assets have risk characteristics closer to capital their ex ante real returns are potentially more relevant for investment and savings decisions we explore the use of various price indices because the index used in most studies the consumer price index severely overstates inflation during the 1970s as a result of its inappropriate treatment of residential housing costs 2 this overstatement casts doubt on an important finding of previous studies that there are long stretches of time during the 1970s when ex ante real rates are significantly negative given the existence of holding costs for the goods relevant to most price indices and the absence of a riskless real return no arbitrage conditions are violated by a negative ex ante real rate however its persistence is problematical because asset holders are typically assumed to have a positive rate of time preference which ensures a positive ex ante real rate in the long run we find that before 1979 a negative relationship of ex ante real rates both with inflation and with nominal interest rates appears for the longer maturity assets as well as the short term nominally riskless asset indeed the relationship grows

long run dynamics of black and official exchange rates abstract this paper examines the relationships among black and official foreign exchange rates its primary purpose is to investigate the way in which black and official markets process information application of cointegration tests to the turkish markets for us dollars and west german marks in the mid 1980s indicates that the two black markets are efficient information processors for the black and official markets of each currency evidence is found suggesting the possibility of overshooting by the black exchange rate this inefficiency may not be able to be arbitraged away because of restrictions on capital flows through official channels

testing the hypothesis of market efficiency in the taiwan us forward exchange market since 1990 this article examines the applicability of the hypothesis of market efficiency in taiwan s foreign exchange market using daily data instead of linear regression based models we consider the possibility that the true data generating process may come from two different distributions and we employ the markov switching approach to analyse this from the results of the two state markov switching model we define state 1 as the efficient state and state 2 as the inefficient one only the 30 day forward rate is able to differentiate between the two states based on the unconditional probabilities from the markov switching model we also find that the 30 day forward rate has a 70 probability in the efficient state which indicates that 70 of all speculators fully extract information when predicting future spot rates while 30 of all investors do not

persistence in foreign exchange rates abstract this study examines the long run behavior of seven daily nominal exchange rates using univariate and multivariate persistence measures our results indicate that for some currencies the long run behavior deviates from that of a pure random walk in certain periods the multivariate estimates reflect the effect of both the ems exchange rate mechanism and increased post louvre accord coordinated intervention a large portion of the effect of a shock in one currency on another currency s long run value can be attributed to contemporaneous effects on the other currencies

co integration and causality testing of the energy gdp relationship a cross country study in this paper the energy gdp relationship in per capita terms is analysed for a sample of 16 countries over the time period 1950 51 to 1984 85 co integration theory is first used to test whether a long run equilibrium relation exists between the two variables after co integration has been established causality measures are constructed to quantify various types of feedback between energy and gdp for each country it is then examined whether the causality measures are longitudinally related to certain basic economic indicators of the countries in the sample

a cointegration study of the efficiency of the us treasury strips market one theoretical implication of cointegration according to granger 1986 is that asset prices in an efficient market cannot be cointegrated using price data on us treasury strips with maturities from 2 15 1997 to 8 15 2015 it is found that a set of three strips series is often cointegrated in addition by setting up a costless hedge portfolio from three strips with three different maturities it is found that the hedge portfolio is often stationary and thus arbitrage opportunities are likely to occur that is because the hedge portfolio is costless and stationary cash in can be done when the value of the hedge portfolio is either positive or negative however when taking liquidity tax effects and transaction costs into consideration these arbitrage profits would be unlikely hence it is concluded that the us treasury strips market is efficient

the international linkage of real interest rates the european us connection abstract in this paper we present evidence on several questions regarding the movement in short term real interest rates in eight countries have ex ante real estates in the united states and europe been high during recent years has there been a link between us real rates and those in other countries can this link be quantified the basic finding in this paper is that real rates have climbed dramatically from the 1970s to the 1980s in both the european countries and the united states there is also strong evidence that there is a positive association between movements in us real rates and those in europe however european real rates typically do not move one for one with us real rates still leaving open the possibility that european monetary policy can influence domestic economic activity

co integration error correction and the fisher effect 1989 co integration error correction and the fisher effect applied economics vol 21 no 12 pp 1611 1620

interdependence and dynamics in currency futures markets a multivariate analysis of intraday data abstract this paper investigates long term interdependencies and short term dynamics in currency futures utilizing intraday data for six major foreign currencies the british pound deutsche mark swiss franc australian dollar canadian dollar and japanese yen lack of cointegration ci among the foreign exchange futures is found to be the prevailing mode of behavior but some temporary deviations from the no ci condition are detected there is a notable overlap between detected ci relationships and the timing of policy changes world events and regime shifts indicating that the observed cis are event driven the robustness of the ci results is checked with respect to variations in the model lag structure data period sample horizon and currency basket grouping impulse response functions irfs reveal that currency markets are in general efficient and absorb new information within the day the interdependence among currencies is found to be asymmetric

an error correcting model of farmland prices granger has demonstrated that if two variables are integrated of order one and are conitegrated they can be modelled as having been generated by an error correction mechanism cointegration and error correction systems allow long run components of variables to obey equilibrium constraints while short run components are allowed to have flexible dynamic specification using data from five corn belt states in the us we show that farmland prices and cash rents are each integrated of order one and are model is estimated the error correction term is found to be significant in both equations indicating granger causality running in both directions historical simulation of the model is performed the price equation peroformed better although both equations simulate reasonably well

does comovement among exchange rates imply market inefficiency abstract this paper argues that contrary to what has been reported in the empirical literature previously cointegration between pairs of exchange rates does not necessarily rule out informational efficiency in currency markets the basic reason is that market efficiency does not rule out predictable exchange rate movements but only rules out arbitrage opportunities from predictable exchange rate movements as the usual parity conditions dictate

reframing the moral limits of markets debate social domains values allocation methods what should and what should not be for sale in a society this is the central question in the moral limits of markets mlm debate which is conducted by a group of business ethicists and liberal egalitarian political theorists these mlm theorists which we will dub market moralists all put forward a specific version of the argument that while the market is well suited to allocate some categories of goods and services it is undesirable for the allocation of other such categories we argue that the current mlm debate is too much framed in terms of a market non market dichotomy moreover authors tend to distinguish insufficiently between values such as freedom equality and efficiency and allocation methods such as the market the queue and rationing we introduce a new conceptual scheme consisting of societal domains values and allocation methods to provide a better structure for this debate the argument is illustrated from the education and healthcare domains

common stochastic trends between forward and spot exchange rates abstract the common trend analyses between the forward rate f t and the corresponding future spot rate of the same currency s t 1 have raised several issues notably the sensitivity of the cointegrating relation to a constant term and lag lengths and the non stationarity of the risk premium this paper addresses these issues more rigorously using the daily exchange rate of the pound sterling vis a vis five major currencies viz the canadian dollar french franc german mark japanese yen and us dollar the appropriate deterministic term in the cointegrating space is identified through empirical tests a robust cointegrating relation is found between f t and s t 1 however the hypothesis of unbiasedness of forward rate could not be sustained an alternative measure of risk premium is suggested and its stationarity is confirmed

are japanese interest rates too stable abstract we examine the effects of japanese financial market liberalization using daily data on eurocurrency and two japanese onshore interest rates the gensaki and cd rates our evidence suggests that japanese money markets are now fully integrated with world markets but that the degree of integration depends heavily on the japanese asset examined in particular we find that the gensaki market is not completely integrated with the euroyen market the cd rate however is cointegrated with the euroyen rate since june 1984 and the euroyen cd rate variance ratio is similar to that of dollar denominated assets after november 1988 jel e43

convergence of interest rates around the pacific rim this article applies the panel data unit root tests provided by im pesaran and shin discussion paper 1997 to examine the interest rate convergence of small open asian countries with major financial centres with monthly data from 1988 1 to 1997 6 it was found that the nominal interest rates of these countries converge to the us rates rather than to japan s this finding is consistent with the view that the monetary authorities of non japan asian economies pegged their exchange rates overwhelmingly to the dollar rather than the yen before the financial crisis of 1997

financial integration of east asian economies evidence from real interest parity in this article we investigate the financial linkages between the east asian economies with japan and the united states we test for long run real interest rate parity rip using an array of panel data techniques including recent techniques developed by breuer et al 2002 and carrion i silvestre et al 2005 this study offers two important results first the failure to account for structural breaks in the industrialized countries and asian emerging economies is likely to provide evidence of nonstationary series that are stationary second we found strong evidence that the parity condition holds in all the asian countries the failure of earlier studies to confirm mean reversion of real interest rate differential rid may reflect the choice of estimation testing procedure rather than any inherent deficiency in the rip

some further evidence on the law of one price the law of one price still holds international trade models often postulate the existence of a representative price i e the price which prevails at all markets this is known as the law of one price in this paper the law of one price is tested for seven commodities among four countries by explicitly considering transaction costs the empirical evidence suggests that in most cases the law of one price cannot be rejected asa maintained hypothesis furthermore for the remaining cases transaction costs seem to cause the failure

true protection and the real exchange rate in a capital rich developing country some evidence for saudi arabia this paper investigates how alternative measures of the real exchange rate respond to trade policy and terms of trade changes it employs a modelling framework which endogenises the price of non tradeable goods and applies the model to price and real exchange rate data for saudi arabia for the period 1982 92 the results show that the popular propositions about the response of the real exchange rate to terms of trade or trade policy changes do not necessary hold this is a consequence of the measure of the real exchange rate utilized rather than a product of saudi arabia s capital richness