indirect effects of an aid program how do cash transfers affect ineligibles consumption cash transfers to eligible households indirectly increase the consumption of ineligible households living in the same villages this effect operates through insurance and credit markets ineligible households benefit from the transfers by receiving more gifts and loans and by reducing their savings thus the transfers benefit the local economy at large looking only at the effect on the treated underestimates the impact one should analyze the effects of this class of programs on the entire local economy rather than on the treated only and use a village level randomization rather than selecting treatment and control subjects from the same community

precautionary savings and self selection evidence from the german reunification experiment in the absence of complete insurance expected future income shocks lead prudent individuals to build up precautionary savings in order to avoid wide fluctuations in the consumption path the reaction of savings to expected future shocks is stronger the more risk averse an individual is risk aversion might influence not only the savings behavior of an individual facing a stochastic income path but it can also affect occupational choice in the first place in particular risk averse individuals might choose occupations that are associated with less risky income paths while less risk averse individuals might prefer occupations with higher income risk assessing the importance of self selection of individuals into occupations according to their risk aversion is difficult since risk aversion is usually unobserved yet failing to control for unobserved risk aversion in regressions of wealth on measures of labor income risk will lead to a bias if selfselection takes place since measures of labor income risk will be negatively correlated with the error term that is capturing the unobserved risk aversion this could lead to a rejection of the theory of precautionary savings even if individuals act according to the theory

ill health savings and portfolio choices in developing economies abstract this paper examines the effect of adult health on the savings and portfolio decisions of rural pakistani households it also tests whether such effects result because ill health affects income and the rates of return on specific assets by so doing it provides evidence on the sensitivity of savings to income changes and to interest rates i find that expectations of future ill health increase overall savings but reduce investments in productive assets thereby forging a link between health and poverty i also find that the number of males in a household condition the impact of the ill health of any given individual on savings outcomes

wealth accumulation over the life cycle and precautionary savings this article constructs and simulates a life cycle model of wealth accumulation and estimates the parameters of the utility function the rate of time preference and the coefficient of risk aversion by matching the simulated median wealth profiles with those observed in the panel study of income dynamics and in the survey of consumer finances the estimates imply a low degree of patience and a high degree of risk aversion the results are used to study the importance of precautionary savings in explaining wealth accumulation they imply that wealth accumulation is driven mostly by precautionary motives at the beginning of the life cycle whereas savings for retirement purposes become significant only closer to retirement

household coping in war and peacetime cattle sales in rwanda 1991 2001 abstract the economic literature has given due attention to household coping strategies in peacetime in contrast little is known about such strategies in wartime this paper studies the use of cattle as a buffer stock by rwandan households during 1991 2001 a period characterized by civil war and genocide it is found that the probability of selling cattle increases upon the occurrence of both peacetime and wartime covariant adverse income shocks the peacetime cattle sales are largely explained by shifts in the household asset portfolio in contrast in 1994 the year of the genocide almost half of the cattle sales were motivated by the need to buy food however we argue that the effectiveness of this coping strategy was severely reduced due to the wartime conditions first during the year of ethnic violence cattle prices plummeted to less than half of their pre genocide value second we find that households most targeted in the violence did not sell cattle we discuss several explanations for this latter finding

unemployment risk and precautionary wealth evidence from households balance sheets this paper examines precautionary behavior by relating job loss risk to household net worth we use existing best practice and some new strategies to deal with some problematic issues inherent in this literature regarding proxying uncertainty instrumentation and incorporating theoretical restrictions we do not find precautionary variation in the wealth holdings of households with low permanent income but do find precautionary effects for moderate and higher income households when the dependent variable is total net worth these findings are robust to several alternative specifications but we do not find precautionary responses in subaggregates of wealth that exclude home equity

the household response to persistent natural disasters evidence from bangladesh we examine the short run economic impacts of recurrent flooding on bangladeshi households surveyed in 2000 2005 and 2010 in 2010 household income and expenditure survey hies households answered a set of questions on whether they were affected by flood and its likely impacts we identify two treatment affected groups by using the self reported data and historical rainfall data based flood risk index we estimate a difference indifference did model to quantify the impacts on income expenditure asset and labour market outcomes and further extend our analysis to different income and expenditure brackets overall we find robust evidence of negative impacts on agricultural income and expenditure intriguingly the extreme poor i e the bottom 15th quintile experience significant positive impacts on agricultural income in the self reported treatment case

extreme weather and civil war does drought fuel conflict in somalia through livestock price shocks climate change leads to more frequent and more intense droughts in somalia in a global context weather shocks have been found to perpetuate poverty and fuel civil conflict by relating regional and temporal variations in violent conflict outbreaks and drought incidence and severity we show that this causality is also valid for somalia at the local level we find that livestock price shocks drive drought induced conflicts through reducing the opportunity costs of conflict participation our estimation results indicate that a temperature rise of around 3 2 degree celcius corresponding to the median ipcc scenario for eastern africa by the end of the century would lower cattle prices by about 4 percent and in turn increase the number of violent conflict by about 58 percent hence climate change will further aggravate somalia s security challenges and calls for decisive action to strengthen both drought and conflict resilience especially in pastoralist and agropastoralist livelihoods

estimating households vulnerability to idiosyncratic and covariate shocks a novel method applied in madagascar households in developing countries are frequently hit by severe idiosyncratic and covariate shocks leading to high consumption volatility a household s currently observed poverty status might therefore not be a good indicator of the household s general vulnerability to poverty in the recent years there has been an emerging literature on the concept and empirical analysis of vulnerability but because of strong data requirements for vulnerability analysis and limited availability of panel and shock data for developing countries static poverty analysis still dominates empirical vulnerability studies in this paper we propose a simple method to empirically assess the impact of idiosyncratic and covariate shocks on households vulnerability which can be applied in a wide context as it relies on more commonly available cross sectional or short panel data we empirically illustrate our approach for madagascar we show that covariate shocks have a relatively higher impact on rural households whereas idiosyncratic shocks have a relatively higher impact on urban households vulnerability

how important is precautionary saving we estimate how much of the wealth of a sample of psid respondents is held because some households face more income uncertainty than others we begin by solving a theoretical model of saving which we use to develop appropriate measures of uncertainty we then regress measures of wealth on our measures of uncertainty and find evidence that households engage in precautionary saving finally we simulate the wealth distribution that our empirical results imply would prevail if all households had the same uncertainty as the lowest uncertainty group we find that between 39 and 46 percent of wealth in our sample is attributable to the extra uncertainty that some consumers face compared to the lowest uncertainty group

ex ante and ex post labor supply response to risk in a low income area abstract this paper tests for ex ante and ex post labor supply responses to weather risk for rural indian farm households the analysis uses panel data on 2115 households spanning 13 states in rural india merged with a 22 year series of district level rainfall data ex ante households facing riskier distributions of rainfall are more likely to participate in the labor market ex post unexpectedly bad weather and low rainfall increase labor force participation

behavioral responses to risk in rural china does risk perpetuate poverty in a credit constrained economy jalan and ravallion study portfolio and other behavioral responses to measured risk using household panel data for rural china one quarter of wealth is held in unproductive liquid forms but only a small share of this appears to be a precaution against income risk the authors estimate that eliminating income risk would reduce the share of wealth held in liquid form by less than 1 percentage point moreover that effect is confined largely to middle income groups high income households do not it seems need to hold unproductive cautionary wealth and the poor probably cannot afford to do so the authors find no evidence that income risk discourages schooling but risk does inhibit the out migration of labor generally the results provide only limited support for the idea that uninsured risks promote unproductive portfolio behavior in this setting there is such an effect but it is small in magnitude and cannot be deemed an important cause of poverty

is there persistence in the impact of emergency food aid evidence on consumption food security and assets in rural ethiopia we identify the impact of emergency food aid programs after the 2002 drought in rural ethiopia on future welfare based on a difference in differences matching estimator participation in food for work increases growth in total consumption and food consumption eighteen months after the drought separately receiving free food raises growth in food consumption but surprisingly negatively impacts food security food for work benefited households in the middle and upper tail of the consumption distribution while the better targeted free food program benefited the poorest evidence suggests these impacts demonstrate accumulated and persistent effects of food aid received in the first twelve months after the drought

living like there s no tomorrow the psychological effects of an earthquake on savings and spending behavior abstract natural disasters impact economies not only through physical damages but also by affecting survivors emotionally and psychologically this can alter their economic behavior in ways that remain poorly understood we present a model of post disaster savings that reveals two opposing tendencies the need to self insure through increased savings and the drive to enjoy life while it lasts through increased spending we use panel datasets from china s sichuan province and isolate psychological impacts by focusing on those who lived in quake areas but did not themselves suffer damages or injuries although they did not bear economic losses they saved less spent more on alcohol and played majiang a chinese game more often suggesting that the no tomorrow tendency dominated over the precautionary tendency the magnitude of the savings rate impact a drop of 0 17 percentage points for each percent of distance closer to the epicenter is economically significant and persists in the medium term

credit markets in northern nigeria credit as insurance in a rural economy this article addresses the issues of imcomplete markets and imperfect information in the context of credit markets in rural northern nigeria in much recent theoretical literature the problems of moral hazard and adverse selection are assumed to be decisive for the organization of agrarian institutions in contrast it is found that in the four villages surveyed credit transactions take advantage of the free flow of information within rural communities information asymmetries between borrower and lender are unimportant and their institutional consequences the use of collateral and interlinked contracts are absent credit transactions play a direct role in pooling risk between households through the use of contracts in which the repayment owed by the borrower depends on the realization of random production shocks by both the borrower and the lender

precautionary behavior migrant networks and household consumption decisions an empirical analysis using household panel data from rural china abstract we develop a test of precautionary behavior in the consumption decisions of rural agricultural households among surveyed households facing a median level of consumption risk 10 of savings can be attributed to a precautionary motive and this increases to 15 for households with consumption per capita below the poverty line we next use distant lags of local rainfall shocks uncorrelated with current consumption growth to identify the size of migrant networks outside the village and then present evidence that both poor and nonpoor households engage in less precautionary saving as the size of the village migrant network increases

risk and insurance in a rural credit market an empirical investigation in northern nigeria credit contracts play a direct role in pooling risk between households in northern nigeria repayments owed by borrowers depend on realizations of random shocks by both borrowers and lenders the paper develops two models of state contingent loans the first is a competitive equilibrium in perfectly enforceable contracts the second permits imperfect information and equilibrium default estimates of both models indicate that quantitatively important state contingent payments are embedded in these loan transactions but that a fully efficient risk pooling equilibrium is not achieved the research is based on a year long survey in zaria nigeria conducted by the author

deep impact geo simulations as a policy toolkit for natural disasters adverse post natural disaster outcomes in low income regions like elevated internal migration levels and low consumption levels are the result of market failures poor mechanisms for stabilizing income and missing insurance markets which force the affected population to respond and adapt to the shock they face in a spatial environment with multiple locations with independent but inter connected markets these transitions quickly become complex and highly non linear due to the feedback loops between the micro individual level decisions and the meso location wise market decisions to capture these continuously evolving micro meso interactions this paper presents a spatially explicit bottom up agent based model to analyze natural disaster like shocks to low income regions the aim of the model is to temporally and spatially track how population distributions income and consumption levels evolve in order to identify low income workers that are food insecure the model is applied to the 2005 earthquake in northern pakistan which faced catastrophic losses and high levels of displacement in a short time span and with market disruptions resulted in high levels of food insecurity the model is calibrated to pre crisis trends and shocked using distance based output and labor loss functions to replicate the earthquake impact model results show how various factors like existing income and saving levels distance from the fault line and connectivity to other locations can give insights into the spatial and temporal emergence of vulnerabilities the simulation framework presented here leaps beyond existing modeling efforts which usually deals with macro long term loss estimates and allows policy makers to come up with informed short term policies in an environment where data is non existent policy response is time dependent and resources are limited

when two wrongs make a right second best point nonpoint trading ratios most research on point nonpoint trading focuses on the choice of trading ratio the rate point source controls trade for nonpoint controls although the first best ratio is jointly determined with the optimal number of permits in practice program managers often do not have control over the number of permits only the trading ratio the trading ratio in this case can only be second best we derive the second best trading ratio and using a numerical example of trading in the susquehanna river basin we find the values are in line with current ratios but for different reasons than those that are normally provided

natural resources agriculture and property rights abstract the study explores empirically forest resource and soil quality degradation under different property rights regimes in a subsistence agriculture framework the quantitative analysis is a direct test of the theoretical hypothesis of larson and bromley 1990 larson b bromley d 1990 property rights externalities and resource degradation locating the tragedy journal of development economics 33 2 that common property and private property rights may lead to similar incentives for resource protection a household model is formulated and applied empirically with data from indonesia to test rates of forest biomass and soil quality degradation under private and common property rights results show that the two regimes may equal each other by including bequest value sensitivity analysis is conducted by changing model parameters

income shocks consumption wealth and human capital evidence from russia abstract using the russia longitudinal monitoring survey this article investigates how russian households consumption responds to income shocks and in particular how household wealth and human capital affect the households ability to smooth consumption an instrumental variable estimation method with household fixed effects is implemented after correcting for potential problems of sample attrition using the inverse probability weighting method the article finds that household consumption in russia is only partially protected from idiosyncratic shocks the analysis also provides evidence that wealthier households can better smooth their consumption furthermore changes in income have less impact on consumption when households have members with higher education levels wealth effects are more pronounced in rural areas while education effects are stronger for urban households

precautionary saving under liquidity constraints evidence from rural pakistan this paper investigates precautionary saving under liquidity constraints in pakistan using household panel data in particular while we estimates kimball s 1990 prudence parameter we deviate from dynan s 1993 framework by explicitly considering liquidity constraints as in zeldes 1989 by doing so we attempt to differentiate the standard precautionary saving caused by uncertainty from the one due to liquidity constraints furthermore endogenous liquidity constraints are considered to resolve issues of selection biases in this study we document substantial evidence of the presence of precautionary saving in pakistan more specifically the estimated prudence is significantly higher for liquidity constrained households as compared with unconstrained ones the results support the emerging view that facilitating saving may often be more important than finding better ways of lending to the poor

long term impacts of global food crisis on production decisions evidence from farm investments in indonesia did the rise in food prices have a long term impact on agricultural production using household level panel data from seven provinces of indonesia this paper finds that the price shock created a forward looking incentive to invest which can dynamically enhance productivity in agriculture it also finds that the impact of the price shock on investment behavior differs by initial wealth in response to price increases wealthy farmers invested more in productive assets while poor farmers increased their financial savings as well as consumption price spikes relax liquidity constraints which increases investments among the richer while do so savings and consumptions among the poor possibly leading to diverging income inequality in the long run

saving and economic shocks in rural pakistan abstract this paper adapts the recent methodology of paxson to study saving rates in rural pakistan particular attention is paid to differences in marginal rates of financial and physical saving and how these vary across income groups and by direction of income shocks households exhibit more difficulty in smoothing consumption after successive shocks than with a single shock the study also observes marginal rates of saving out of international remittances and lump sum pensions unlike domestic remittances international remittances appear to be treated much as transitory income shocks

reversing property rights practice based approaches for controlling agricultural nonpoint source water pollution when emissions aggregate nonlinearly nonpoint source water pollution remains a major issue despite decades of research and sizable conservation programs we suggest that by taking advantage of contemporary modeling and optimization approaches good approximations to physical relationships can be constructed so that even in the presence of unobservable field emissions and nonlinear fate and transport relationships standard economic tools of command and control requirements performance standards and trading can be implemented the boone river watershed in the u s state of iowa is used for empirical demonstration although the approach can be used to construct voluntary conservation policies the described policies involve imposing requirements on agricultural polluters rather than relying on voluntary actions alone

precautionary motives and portfolio decisions theory predicts that under certain restrictions on preferences prudent consumers will allocate relatively more funds to riskless assets when there is uninsurable background risk this paper analyzes empirically the relevance of precautionary motives for the structure of household wealth to this end a new and rich data source from the netherlands is exploited the question of primary concern is what impact if any does the presence of income uncertainty have on the structure of dutch households portfolios we employ various semi parametric estimators both for cross sections and for panel data to assess the response of households portfolios to uninsurable background risk we find some but not unanimous support for the view that portfolios become less risky as income uncertainty increases

political preference functions and public policy reform a model of policy making is developed where governments seek to maximize support from social groups through the combination of both pert social welfare increasing and pert welfare transferring policies the implicit weights of a political preference function shift with a change in the relative cost of interest group organizing attention is paid to the degree of wealth transfers as total social welfare increases because of pert policy changes the model demonstrates that in the case of two competing groups the weight given to one group in the allocation of social surplus will increase as total social welfare increases with a bias toward the other group the relative weights placed on consumers and producers based on pest policies alone are misleading indicators of the political influence of groups a number of general implications of this political economic analysis for the reform of public policies are investigated

intra household labor supply migration and subsistence constraints in a risky environment evidence from rural el salvador abstract we investigate the use of intra household labor allocation as a means of risk coping when subsistence constraints matter in rural el salvador we show that households increase the labor supply of its male members to the family farm and abroad in the us after being subjected to adverse agricultural productivity shocks the latter is the result of a standard substitution effect whereas the former is the result of subsistence concerns theoretically these results are not at odds with each other if these events differentially impacted rich and poor households we also show that the earthquakes of 2001 resulted in large reductions in the number of female members who were sent abroad and large increases in hours of domestic labor supplied by female members we argue that this result is a consequence of subsistence motives because female labor supply at home increased despite lower remuneration

a feminization of vulnerability female headship poverty and vulnerability in thailand and vietnam summary this article investigates whether heterogeneous subgroups of female headed households are worse off than households headed by men it analyzes the correlates of consumption shock exposure and severity as well as vulnerability to poverty using panel data of over 4000 rural households from thailand and vietnam strong evidence of heterogeneity among subgroups of female headed households are found in particular in comparison with male headed households de facto female headed ones are found to be richer in thailand but prone to more severe shocks in both countries furthermore our results suggest that in thailand single female headed households are less vulnerable to poverty than households headed by men however in vietnam these households are particularly poor and vulnerable to poverty we show that this is mostly due to their greater poverty rather than their higher risk exposure our findings suggest that differentiation by subgroups of headship is important for policy development and targeting as well as future research

the heterogeneous effect of shocks on agricultural innovations adoption microeconometric evidence from rural ethiopia abstract theoretically the relationship between shocks and agricultural innovation adoption could be ambiguous while shocks could lower the competence and capacity of households to adopt new agricultural innovations households can also take up agricultural innovations as a coping mechanism against the different shocks they face using a nationally representative household data from ethiopia of the living standards measurement study integrated surveys on agriculture lsms isa of the world bank this paper analyzes the effect of idiosyncratic and covariate shocks on adoption of different agricultural innovations assuming interdependence among the innovations we find shocks to have heterogeneous effects on the adoption of agricultural innovations specifically production and health shocks have negative effects on the adoption of high cost innovations such as improved seeds chemical fertilizer and irrigation however production shocks are positively associated with low cost innovations such as organic fertilizer to enhance farmers adoption of agricultural innovations especially high cost innovations there is a greater need towards the design of policies and interventions that would reduce household s exposure to production and health shocks

asset smoothing consumption smoothing and the reproduction of inequality under risk and subsistence constraints abstract a growing literature asks whether low wealth agents can accumulate assets over time or whether they are trapped in poverty this paper develops a stochastic dynamic programming model with endogenous asset price risk to explore savings and portfolio decisions in a resource poor environment characterized by risk and subsistence constraints optimal portfolio strategies are found to bifurcate despite divisible assets and fully rational agents wealthier agents acquire a higher yielding portfolio and pursue conventional consumption smoothing poorer agents acquire a less remunerative portfolio and pursue asset smoothing rather than consumption smoothing asset based risk coping thus results in positive correlation between initial wealth and portfolio rate of return

informal risk sharing in an infinite horizon experiment author s charness gary b genicot garance abstract this paper presents the first laboratory study of risk sharing without commitment our experiment captures the main features of a simple model of voluntary insurance between two agents in the model two individuals interact over a potential infinite horizon and suffer random income shocks risk averse individuals have incentives to smooth consumption by making transfers to each other these transfers being voluntary only self enforcing risk sharing arrangements are possible transfers can never be so large as to tempt individuals to renege on them this constraint when binding has strong implications for the shape of the constrained optimal risk sharing arrangement in our experiment participants are matched in pairs each period one of them randomly drawn receives a given amount in addition to its regular income after observing both incomes each person in a pair chooses a non negative transfer to make to the other person two features of the experimental design are crucial first it is common information that all pairs will be dissolved at the end of each period with a given probability participants are informed when this occurs and randomly re matched this replicates the effect of infinite horizon and discounting in the model second at the end of the experiment a single period is randomly drawn to count for cash payment this feature is essential for individuals to care about the utility outcome of each period we find evidence generally consistent with risk sharing with most transfers coming from individuals who received h in the period moreover in support of the theory transfers are much higher with a higher continuation probability and they also are highly correlated with the individual s degree of risk aversion however while the model predicts an increase in transfers with ex ante inequality we observe the opposite effect this may reflect considerations of identity or group membership

confronting the risk of asset loss what role do livestock transfers in northern kenya play abstract in many low income high risk environments households participate in informal risk sharing institutions involving inter household transfers this study focuses on asset transfers and asset risk the influence of past behavior on access to transfers and wealth differentiated transfer behavior panel data on livestock transfers in northern kenya are analyzed three explanations of livestock transfers are investigated ex post insurance ex ante precautionary savings and redistribution findings indicate that livestock transfers are of limited effectiveness in addressing asset risk and avoiding poverty the findings have implications for both research on risk sharing institutions and for the design of development policies in pastoral areas

the voracity effect abstract we analyze an economy that lacks a strong legal political institutional infrastructure and is populated by multiple powerful groups powerful groups dynamically interact via a fiscal process that effectively allows open access to the aggregate capital stock in equilibrium this leads to slow economic growth and a voracity effect by which a shock such as a terms of trade windfall perversely generates a more than proportionate increase in fiscal redistribution and reduces growth we also show that a dilution in the concentration of power leads to faster growth and a less procyclical response to shocks jel f43 o10 o23 o40

growth and risk how exposure to risk affects economic growth is a key issue in development this article quantifies both the ex ante and ex post effects of risk using long running panel data for rural households in zimbabwe it proposes a simulation based econometric methodology to estimate the structural form of a micro model of household investment decisions under risk the key finding is that risk substantially reduces growth in this particular setting the mean capital stock in the sample is in expectation 46 percent lower than in the absence of risk about two thirds of the impact of risk is due to the ex ante effect that is the behavioral response to risk which is usually not taken into account in policy design these results suggest that policy interventions that reduce exposure to shocks or that help households manage risk could be much more effective than is commonly thought

the structural budget balance a preliminary estimation for mexico in this article we estimate the structural budget balance for mexico from 1980 to 2003 using a variation of the methodology proposed by the international monetary fund in addition we propose a fiscal rule that limits deficits in the structural balance as a percentage of gdp such as the ones used by the european union and the chilean government amongst others we also simulate what the conventional balance would have been for mexico if such a rule would have been implemented in 1980

using stated preferences and beliefs to identify the impact of risk on poor households abstract whilst the importance of uncertainty in shaping economic behaviour of poor households is widely acknowledged empirically identifying the impact of risk is difficult by using data on risk preferences and perceptions of risk collected through hypothetical questions in combination with more traditional measures of a household s ability to deal with risk this article identifies the impact of risk on production decisions it shows both that data on stated preferences and beliefs can be usefully utilised to explain household behaviour and that risk has a significant impact on the production decisions of poor households

livestock and private tree holdings in rural ethiopia the effects of collective action institutions tenure security and market access abstractthis article uses househld panel data spanning the period 2000 2007 to test hypotheses from the literature that secure land tenure market access and collective action promote accumulation of private capital assets in rural highland ethiopia the three natural capital assets analysed in the article livestock eucalyptus trees and non eucalyptus trees on households farm plots make up virtually 100 per cent of privately held disposable assets incomes and capital stocks are extremely low and constant and tree assets are at least as important as livestock we find that collective action and secure land tenure have strong positive effects on accumulation of livestock and other trees but not eucalyptus we also find evidence that market access promotes eucalyptus holdings and that other types of wealth tend to be positively associated with private natural capital stocks

risk sharing across communities this paper studies cross community risk sharing there is now a large body of theoretical and empirical work on informal insurance where people mitigate risk by sharing income a consistent empirical finding is that risk sharing is not complete within villages often the observed sets of individuals 2 one reason researchers suspect is that risk sharing does not take place at the village level but between individuals and families 3 we build a theoretical model where risksharing takes place between pairs of agents there are idiosyncratic shocks to individual income and community level shocks we consider how the opportunity for cross community links affects the shape and efficiency of risk sharing arrangements we find that when links across villages form there can be less risk sharing within a village welfare is higher for those directly or indirectly connected across villages but lower for those with no path connecting them to the other village overall welfare can be higher thus empirical findings that insurance within a village is not complete is not necessarily evidence of an inefficient pattern of risk sharing relations rather the finding is consistent with risk sharing patterns that involve cross community relations and such patterns may yield higher aggregate welfare despite incomplete insurance within a village this paper makes two contributions first it demonstrates the importance of a network analysis by examining pairwise incentives to form relations and the resulting pattern we can see new risk sharing outcomes second with this network model we show how informal risk sharing across communities has both aggregate and distributional effects to study network outcomes we posit a simple two stage model first we provide a benchmark model for risk sharing for a given network then working backwards we consider incentives to form risk sharing links 4 to illustrate consider a rural population and ask how people might link

economics of additionality for environmental services from agriculture abstract we present a model of additionality for offsets sold from agriculture to industrial sector sources regulated by cap and trade we consider a potential policy where agricultural sources would not be covered by cap and trade requirements but would be eligible to receive offsets whenever their emissions fall below a policy specified baseline and would not be penalized for emissions above their baseline major results are 1 the optimal baseline should be set above the average counterfactual emissions of participating farms an unexpected result that has been missing from the literature 2 the optimal trading ratio should be greater than one a ton of offsets counts for less than a ton of covered emissions even under emissions certainty previous research has justified such trading ratios by emissions uncertainty 3 emissions uncertainty does not justify a change in the baseline if the accompanying emissions model is unbiased 4 an optimal combination of policies is to subsidize offsets and tighten the baseline relative to the no subsidy case

the political economy of environmental regulation towards a unifying framework there are several theories that attempt to explain various aspects of environmental policy building on insights from this theoretical work and recent advances in our understanding of instrument performance this paper constructs a more complete theory of environmental regulation there are two primary contributions of this research the first is to provide more satisfactory explanations for a number of observed patterns of environmental policy for example there is as yet no satisfactory theory about the emergence of incentive based mechanisms such as marketable permits and effluent fees the second contribution of this paper is to develop a parsimonious framework for understanding many important aspects of environmental policy this framework suggests the outputs of environmental policy emerge from a struggle between key interest groups

village and larger economies the theory and measurement of the townsend thai project i have spent close to 20 years cataloging transactions between households in thai villages along with a research team just this past summer we documented a number of ways in which even relatively poor villages have money markets not dissimilar in some ways from new york financial markets with borrowing and repayment passing along links in credit chains in another project we have been looking at month by month school attendance grade level completion and graduation for children in these villages following them from birth to graduation the townsend thai project is a theory based data collection endeavor measuring and mapping village and larger economies into general equilibrium frameworks this paper reviews a number of findings implications applications and lessons learned and considers next steps

wealth risk and activity choice cattle in western tanzania abstract imperfect credit markets force households to use their savings for investment profitable activities often require lumpy investments limiting entry by poorer households resulting in increasing welfare differences in tanzania cattle are a profitable but lumpy investment and a liquid asset for consumption smoothing richer households own substantial cattle herds while poorer households specialize in low return low risk activities a dynamic programming model and simulations are presented to analyze entry into asset accumulation under income risk the evidence suggests that households with lower endowments are less likely to own cattle and returns to their endowments are lower

why not cut pay abstract i interviewed over 300 business people labor leaders business consultants and counselors of unemployed people all in the northeast of the united states during the recession of the early 1990 s in order to learn why wages and salaries declined in only a few firms employers were reluctant to cut pay because they believed doing so would hurt employee morale leading to lower productivity and current or future difficulties with hiring and retention it was thought that these effects would in the end cost more than the savings from lower pay there were few indications that unemployed people had excessive wage expectations on the contrary many unemployed were too flexible and found themselves rejected by firms as overqualified in most companies pay cuts were not a useful alternative to layoffs because pay cuts would not make it worthwhile to retain many employees and because layoffs harmed morale less than would pay cuts the findings support none of the theories of wage rigidity except those of solow and akerlof that emphasize morale

targeting of food aid in rural ethiopia chronic need or inertia abstract this paper quantifies the factors underlying the allocations of food aid by the ethiopian government together with local and international non governmental organizations ngos both across rural regions and to households within regions we focus on reduced form specifications in which as little structure as possible is put on the decision rules because so little is known about these rules and their implementation nationally representative rural household data from ethiopia collected in 1996 are used the paper determines the extent to which food aid both free distribution and food for work is targeted to poor households and communities we also demonstrate that food aid allocations display a large degree of spatial continuity over time and are concentrated in areas that at least during the time of the survey are not the poorest the paper attempts to disentangle two competing explanations for the apparent spatial rigidity of food aid allocations that the recipient areas are chronically needy or that needs shift geographically from 1 year to the next but that fixed costs in setting up operations and in the process of identifying needs lead to a degree of inertia in the location of food aid programs over time we conclude that the evidence best fits the inertia explanation

expected poverty under risk induced welfare variability two of the most widely accepted stylised facts about agriculture in south asia sub saharan africa and elsewhere are that income is highly uncertain from one year to another and that deep and widespread poverty exists and yet there has been very little analysis of the joint problems of poverty and risk this paper offers a methodological approach to the issue of how risk affects poverty and applies it to household level data for dry areas of rural india the following questions are addressed under what conditions can one expect an increase in the riskiness of an income or consumption stream to increase poverty how should one measure the contribution of risk to poverty and what long term benefits in terms of reduced poverty can be expected from policies aimed at stabilising incomes of the poor such policies have been widely discussed in the indian subcontinent of late and their effect on rural

migration risk and liquidity constraints in el salvador abstract this article utilizes panel data from el salvador to investigate the use of transnational migration as an ex post risk management strategy i show that adverse agricultural conditions in el salvador increase both migration to the united states and remittances sent back to el salvador i show that in the absence of any agricultural shocks the probability that a household sent members to the united states would have decreased on average by 24 26 i also show that the 2001 earthquakes reduced net migration to the united states a one standard deviation increase in earthquake damage reduced the average probability of northward migration by 37 11 the evidence suggests that the effects of the earthquakes had more to do with households retaining labor at home to cope with the effects of the disaster than with the earthquakes disrupting migration financing

determinants of income diversification amongst rural households in southern mali abstract household level panel data from a representative sample of rural households in southern mali describing the different sources of household income are used to examine the determinants of income diversification a conditional fixed effects logit model is employed in the analysis to control for household specific effects we find evidence that poorer households have fewer opportunities in non cropping activities such as livestock rearing and non farm work and hence less diversified incomes this appears to reflect their relative lack of capital which makes it difficult for them to diversify away from subsistence agriculture the results also indicate that households in remote areas are less likely to participate in the non cropping sector than their counterparts closer to local markets while households with educated heads are more likely to participate in the non farm sector than those with illiterate heads the significance of entry constraints in explaining portfolio diversification suggests that the role of government in making assets as well as improved infrastructure available to poorer households is still essential in promoting income diversification

the macroeconomic consequences of disasters abstract natural disasters have a statistically observable adverse impact on the macro economy in the short run and costlier events lead to more pronounced slowdowns in production yet interestingly developing countries and smaller economies face much larger output declines following a disaster of similar relative magnitude than do developed countries or bigger economies a close study of the determinants of these adverse macroeconomic output costs reveals several interesting patterns countries with a higher literacy rate better institutions higher per capita income higher degree of openness to trade and higher levels of government spending are better able to withstand the initial disaster shock and prevent further spillovers into the macro economy these all suggest an increased ability to mobilize resources for reconstruction financial conditions also seem to be of importance countries with more foreign exchange reserves and higher levels of domestic credit but with less open capital accounts appear more robust and better able to endure natural disasters with less adverse spillover into domestic production

a policy preference function for government intervention in the u s wheat market this paper estimates a policy preference function that explains the government s choices of target prices government held wheat stocks and public wheat research funding the policy preference function depends on producers surplus consumers surplus and budget expenditures an important innovation in this paper is the inclusion of interactions between public research expenditures and other public policy variables results indicate that the government places a premium of 25 to 45 on the welfare of wheat producers of relative to budget expenditures while wheat consumers welfare is discounted as much as 50 relative to budget expenditures the purpose of this paper is to provide an explanation of government commodity programs stock accumulations and research expenditures in the u s wheat sector the explanation is based on a policy preference function ppf that depends on producers surplus consumers surplus and budget expenditures it is assumed that target prices reductions in or additions to government stocks and public research expenditures are chosen to maximize the policy preference function the central contribution of the paper is the estimation of a function that is consistent with the observed government interventions in the u s wheat market that is the paper explains the observed target prices government sales and public research expenditures as rational behavior by a government which seeks to maximize the estimated policy preference function the approach in this paper is based on the political interest group theories of peltzman and becker applications of these ideas to agriculture include rausser and freebairn s description of the beef industry gardner s 1985 analysis

can income programs reduce tropical forest pressure income shocks and forest use in malawi summary seasonal household data from malawi are used to study links between income shocks and forest use a tobit model is estimated to examine whether household forest use responds to receipt of a positive income shock delivered as a technology assistance package and the characteristics of households reliant on forests for shock coping results show households experiencing an income boost had lower forest extraction compared to households that did not receive such a shock ceteris paribus we find households most dependent on forests for natural insurance are those located near woodlands and headed by an individual who is relatively young and male 2005 published by elsevier ltd

post disaster aid and development of the manufacturing sector lessons from a natural experiment in china abstract we adopt a disaggregate approach to study the link between aid and dutch disease dynamics using a natural experiment in china specifically we examine whether post disaster aid provided to a subsample of chinese counties devastated by an earthquake in 2008 affects the sectoral composition of local economies using different methods we consistently find that counties receiving more aid even nearby counties not directly damaged by the earthquake tend to suffer from a contraction of the manufacturing sector innovative features of the paper include its regional perspective its identification strategy resting on a special provision in chinese policy pairwise aid and its focus on dutch disease effects in the context of post disaster aid

growth and risk methodology and micro evidence how exposure to risk affects economic growth is a key issue in development this article quantifies both the ex ante and ex post effects of risk using long running panel data for rural households in zimbabwe it proposes a simulation based econometric methodology to estimate the structural form of a micro model of household investment decisions under risk the key finding is that risk substantially reduces growth in this particular setting the mean capital stock in the sample is in expectation 46 percent lower than in the absence of risk about two thirds of the impact of risk is due to the ex ante effect that is the behavioral response to risk which is usually not taken into account in policy design these results suggest that policy interventions that reduce exposure to shocks or that help households manage risk could be much more effective than is commonly thought

fiscal rules inertia and discretionary fiscal policy in current practice changes in the cyclically adjusted budget balance cab are interpreted as reflecting the effort of discretionary fiscal policy this paper shows that such an interpretation is not a sufficiently accurate description of the behaviour of fiscal policy as in some cases it may conceal an important deficit bias specifically as growth projections are an important building block of budgetary plans systematic optimism in forecasting growth coupled with pervasive lags and inertia in the implementation phase of the budget will result in a fiscal expansion compared to plans even in the absence of discretionary measures in order to track down this kind of passive behaviour in the light of growth surprises or sanguine growth assumptions the traditional reading of the cab needs to be adjusted this is achieved by relaxing the benchmark assumption according to which under unchanged fiscal policy the deficit to gdp ratio is invariant to growth an empirical application to public finance

risk coping and starvation in rural china we use a 3 year panel from two poor provinces in southern china to examine the nature of risks to which rural households are exposed and their ability to insure calorie consumption and spending of total consumption against idiosyncratic shocks to their income we find that idiosyncratic risks are indeed the main source of income variation in the sample consumption is better insured than total spending unlike total spending where full insurance is rejected in most cases calorie intake is completely insured for both land rich and land poor households in both provinces access to even modest amounts of land significantly enhances households ability to guard against total spending land rich households are much better insured against total spending than land poor households the results are robust across model specifications although generalized method of moments gmm estimations increase the magnitude of difference in total spending between the land rich and the land poor policies targeting poverty red

using weather variability to estimate the response of savings to transitory income in thailand this paper measures the extent to which farmers are able to use savings and dissavings to smooth consumption in response to unexpected shocks to income time series information on regional rainfall is used to construct estimates of transitory income due to rainfall shocks the relationship between these measures of transitory income and savings indicates that farm households save a significantly higher fraction of transitory income than nontransitory income jel d91 016 the incomes of farm households in developing countries are notorious for being both low and uncertain policies that increase the incomes of farmers may well be different

risk aversion and land allocation between annual and perennial crops in semisubsistence farming a stochastic optimization approach this article analyzes the effect of production uncertainty on farmland allocation decisions between perennial and annual crops focusing on a representative farmer s attitude toward risk a dynamic stochastic optimization model that considers net planting the difference between new plantings and removals of perennial crops that achieve full production cycle is used the effect of uncertainty on the representative farmer s decisions to increase or decrease perennial crops acreage on the optimal path is examined our results reveal that the response of optimal path of net planting to uncertainty related to perennial crop production is highly affected by the farmer s attitude toward risk a risk averse or a low risk loving farmer tends to reduce land allocation to perennial crops under uncertainty while a high risk loving farmer will do exactly the opposite also due to disutility of farming the farmer tends to reduce land allocation to perennial crops when prices are high enough for him to attain a desired income level expectation one implication of this research is the need for mechanization in sub saharan countries in particular that increases per acreage yield and output in semisubsistence agriculture

precautionary saving credit constraints and irreversible investment theory and evidence from serniarid india this article investigates the extent to which poor households are discouraged from making a non divisible but profitable investment using data on irrigation wells in india we estimate the parameters of a structural model of irreversible investment results show that poor farmers fail to undertake a profitable investment that they could in principle self finance because the nondivisibility of the investment puts it out of their reach irreversibility constitutes an additional disincentive to invest simulations show that the availability of credit can dramatically increase investment in irrigation and that interest rate subsidization has little impact

endogenous risk and point nonpoint uncertainty trading ratios point nonpoint trading enables highly uncertain nonpoint pollution abatement to be substituted for relatively certain point source pollution abatement market designers use uncertainty trade ratios to address imperfect substitution between these commodities guidance from government agencies and other entities recommends large ratios that penalize trades for nonpoint abatement and extant programs universally implement this guidance previous research has shown that the standard guidance is based on an inappropriate framing of the risk effects of substituting nonpoint for point source pollution abatement and has demonstrated that the trade ratios should be set to encourage or discourage substitution depending on whether the substitution is risk reducing or risk increasing however the pigouvian pricing approach used to develop this result obscures the underlying economic calculus because it does not recognize or characterize the tradeoffs between abatement costs savings and environmental risk that must be considered in an economic evaluation of alternative ratios and that would be key to explaining why ratios recommended by economic analysis would be preferred to received wisdom we develop a new approach that explicitly identifies and characterizes the tradeoffs associated with the choice of ratio the approach is examined both in first best settings where trade ratios and initial permit allocations are jointly determined and in second best settings where permit allocations are taken as given we provide a numerical analysis of trading in the susquehanna river basin in pennsylvania to illustrate theory we find theoretical and numerical support suggesting that smaller ratios may be optimal

optimal management of environmental externalities with time lags and uncertainty many environmental externalities occur with time lags that can range from a few days to several centuries in length and many of these externalities are also subject to uncertainty in this paper we examine the key features of an optimal policy to manage environmental externalities that are both lagged and stochastic we develop a two period two polluter model and obtain closed form solutions for optimal emissions levels under different combinations of damage functions and stochastic processes these solutions show that it is not obvious whether greater control should be exerted on polluters that generate externalities with longer lags or on polluters that generate externalities with shorter lags we find that the optimal ranking of polluters with respect to the length of the time lag associated with their externality will depend on a the discount rate b conditional expectations of future states of the polluted resource c persistence of the pollutant and d initial conditions

the importance of the savings device in precautionary savings empirical evidence from rural bangladesh we test if precautionary behavior in the consumption decisions of rural households differs across the forms of savings using monthly panel data from bangladesh we find that on average the savings device does not matter but that the effect of income on savings indeed depends on the savings device precautionary savings in the form of staple grain are relatively constant across income quartiles while nongrain precautionary savings vary across income quartiles previous studies which treat these two types of savings devices as fungible misdiagnose the reasons for and by extension the market failures behind a large percentage of the precautionary savings held by rural households

land tenure and investment incentives evidence from west africa abstract the existing literature on the relationship between property rights in land and agricultural investment in africa has given results that are often confusing and contradictory i make two clarifying contributions to this literature first i pull together existing studies and investigate whether the results they find have been affected by research methods or local contexts studies with small sample sizes those that use binary investment measures and those that control for household fixed effects are less likely to find a statistically significant link between land tenure and investment self reported tenure security has been a poor predictor of investment outcomes second i test for a relationship between land tenure and agricultural investment in nine data sets from west africa while the link between tenure and investment is significant for fallow and tree planting it is less robust for labor use and other inputs such as manure or chemical fertilizer

shocks and asset dynamics in ethiopia abstractthis article uses household survey panel data of 416 rural households to study asset dynamics in the northern highlands of ethiopia and the response of assets to shocks the period under examination 1996 2003 was marked by severe environmental shocks including a series of droughts the article empirically studies the nature of household asset paths over time using as the point of departure the theory on precautionary savings behavior results indicate that the response of assets to weather shocks the differential effect of these shocks on liquid and less liquid forms of wealth holdings and the nature of asset dynamics are all consistent with the implications of a precautionary motive for holding wealth

fiscal adjustments and economic performing a comparative study the empirical relationship among fiscal contractions permanent improvement in public finances and short run economic performance is examined using a sample of 14 european countries over the last three decades the actual experience of policy making has taught that only the adjustments that relied heavily on primary expenditure cuts and were implemented over a relatively long time span were able to achieve a long lasting reduction of public liabilities indeed during these consolidations tax increase amounted to a small fraction of the total adjustment furthermore though they unfolded over a longer period with respect to the unsuccessful ones the overall budget cut was not larger as regards the macroeconomic impact successful episodes tended to be associated with improved economic performance during the adjustment period and in the following two years the economies experienced strong consumption and investment growth reduced unemployment better international competitiveness and falling interest

many borrow more save and all insure implications for food and micro finance policy abstract among policy makers researchers and micro finance practitioners alike there is much discussion on the role of micro finance for alleviation of poverty this paper focuses on the linkages between access to credit savings and insurance services and household food security what is the role of micro finance in the overall mix of policy instruments what types of financial services are demanded by the poor and which are offered by micro finance institutions mfis hence which are the gaps in financial products we present a conceptual framework that addresses these questions and provide a synthesis of the empirical results of a multi country research program in ten african and asian countries we conclude that insurance can be considered as the missing third of micro finance during the 1990s and that the mfi s outreach to the poor can be improved by offering savings credit and insurance products that enhance the poor s ability to bear risks applied research on the poor s preferences as well as bold experimentation with new financial products appear to be particularly promising in making progress towards that goal since insurance services are difficult to be offered except for easily observable idiosyncratic risks precautionary savings services can be a valuable insurance substitute in particular for the poorest

household level consumption in urban ethiopia the effects of a large food price shock summary we use survey data to investigate how urban households in ethiopia coped with the food price shock in 2008 qualitative data indicate that the high food price inflation was by far the most adverse economic shock between 2004 and 2008 and that a significant proportion of households had to adjust food consumption in response regression results indicate that households with low asset levels and casual workers were particularly adversely affected by high food prices we interpret the results as pointing to the importance of growth in the formal sector so as to generate more well paid and stable jobs

risk and household grain management in developing countries a dynamic model is presented of a household s joint production storage and trade decisions when facing transaction costs and risk in prices and yields grain management decisions balance the goals of maximising profits and reducing consumption price risk model solutions calibrated to chinese data show that grain s consumption role makes it an attractive form of precautionary saving even when households have access to credit the joint nature of production and savings decisions limits the income loss associated with risk coping and the desire to store grain can explain why subsistence households are frequently net purchasers but rarely net sellers of grain

natural disasters and labor markets abstract while it is clear that natural disasters have serious welfare consequences for affected populations less is known about how local labor markets in low income countries adjust to such large shocks combining data from the indonesia family life survey the desinventar database the u s geological survey and district level employment indicators this paper explores how a large earthquake in indonesia affected labor market outcomes in particular the evolution of wages across sectors i find that the earthquake had a positive effect on wage growth for workers who were employed in the agricultural sector at baseline i propose two mechanisms for this result a higher growth rate of the price of rice and a downward shift in the supply of workers in the agricultural sector i show that evidence mainly supports the latter labor shifted out of the agricultural sector into the construction sector raising the marginal product of labor in agriculture

precautionary portfolio behavior from a life cycle perspective abstract the literature on household asset accumulation draws a sharp distinction between short run precautionary motives to buffer consumption from annual income shocks and long run life cycle considerations under income certainty however estimates of shock persistence imply considerable career uncertainty we study long run precautionary motives for life cycle wealth accumulation and portfolios allowing for uncertain returns incomes and lifespan we separate the effects of various factors on mean and median asset holdings including education risk aversion household heterogeneity bequests impatience variance and serial correlation of income shocks numerical solutions are compared with data from the 1992 survey of consumer finances

differences in social and public risk perceptions and conflicting impacts on point nonpoint trading ratios if stochastic nonpoint pollution loads create socially costly risk then an economically optimal point nonpoint trading ratio the rate point source controls trade for nonpoint controls is adjusted downward a risk reward for nonpoint controls encouraging more nonpoint controls however in actual trading programs ratios are adjusted upward in response to nonpoint uncertainties a risk premium for nonpoint controls this contradiction is explained using a public choice model in which regulators focus on encouraging abatement instead of reducing damages the result is a divergence of public and social risk perceptions and a trading market that encourages economically suboptimal nonpoint controls copyright 2001 oxford university press

contract farming and vulnerability to poverty among oil palm smallholders in indonesia abstractthis article addresses smallholder oil palm farming in indonesia and the risk of falling into poverty by comparing contract and non contract smallholders we use an asset based approach to define vulnerability and apply propensity score matching analysis to assess the impact of contract farming data were collected from a cross sectional survey conducted in 2010 of 245 oil palm smallholder households 126 of which were contract smallholders the study finds that approximately 40 per cent of oil palm smallholders can be classified as stochastic transient poor we also show that while contract participation reduces the negative impact of oil palm price shocks this is not the case for production shocks the study concludes that despite positive income effects contract smallholders also remain vulnerable to poverty

is an integrated farm more resilient against climate change a micro econometric analysis of portfolio diversification in african agriculture abstract this paper examines whether an integrated farm that owns both crops and livestock is more resilient under global warming than a specialized farm in crops using around 9000 farm surveys across africa we explore how farmers choose one of the farm types and how the net revenue of each type varies across the range of climate in africa the results indicate that an integrated farm increases in number while a specialized farm decreases across africa under climate predictions for 2060 the relative profitability of each system against each other also changes an integrated farm becomes relatively more profitable over specialized farms half a century from now the impacts of climate change on integrated farms range from 9 loss to 27 gain depending on climate scenarios behavioral models can capture portfolio diversification benefits that agro economic models cannot measure

precautionary saving by young immigrants and young natives 1 introduction and literature review foreign born population accounted for approximately 9 of the total population residing in the united states by the mid 1990s and including their children they were responsible for approximately 51 of the u s population growth martin 1995 these dramatic changes in the u s population have prompted much economic research on the immigrant population but despite the great deal of attention that has been paid to the labor market progress of immigrants little is known about their saving and wealth accumulation patterns 1 many studies requiring information on the saving behavior of immigrants simply assume that immigrant savings parallel that of natives macurdy nechyba and bhattacharya 1998 however it may be the case that immigrants behave differently have different motives different opportunities and different needs with respect to saving and wealth accumulation vis a vis natives most of the limited literature on the saving behavior of immigrants is inspired by european and middle eastern guest worker migration and consequently is geared to the behavior of temporary migrants 2 three papers that focus on the saving behavior of immigrants in general are the papers by galor and stark 1990 carroll rhee and rhee 1994 and dustmann 1997 galor and stark note that immigrants and natives differ from one another in their migration probabilities because immigrants have ties to other countries it is more likely that they emigrate relative to the native born worker 3 using an overlapping generations model galor and stark show that the higher the probability of emigration the higher is the level of savings hence they predict immigrants save more than the native born dustmann models precautionary savings and assumes that immigrants maximize expected lifetime utility from consumption in the host and home country proportionally to the lifetime spent abroad and at home 4 under appropriate restrictions 5 dustmann shows that if labor markets in the home and host countries are uncorrelated immigrants will carry out more precautionary savings relative to a comparable native worker because immigrants will be subject to greater income risk in the host country 6 however it is also possible in dustmann s formulation to have immigrants engaging in less precautionary saving relative to native workers for example if economic conditions across the two countries are correlated immigrants could be subject to less lifelong income risk than natives given their ability to diversify away labor market risk by operating in two markets rather than just one as in the case of natives additionally if the risk preferences of natives and immigrants are different then the precautionary saving motive could be more or less pronounced in one group relative to the other all else equal carroll rhee and rhee 1994 use the canadian survey of family expenditures to compare saving behavior of immigrants to canada from different regions of the world they conclude that immigrant saving does not significantly differ by country of origin however they do find that recent immigrants save less than do canadian born and that immigrants saving behavior approaches the pattern of the canadian born over time overall the theoretical literature tends to favor the hypothesis that immigrants carry out more precautionary savings than natives which could result in immigrants accumulating more wealth than natives immigrants face greater uncertainty regarding their labor market participation labor market progress and health care coverage these factors along with geographic distance may make it more difficult to obtain financial support from family members in times of necessity requiring that immigrants maintain larger stocks of precautionary saving but dustmann s model in consonance with a widely held view also allows for immigrants to be more risk tolerant than natives since they are willing to undergo higher uncertainties and risks when they decide to migrate to a new country barsky et al

resilience mobility in uganda a dynamic analysis abstract household resilience to food insecurity can be considered as the capacity that ensures stressors and shocks do not have long lasting adverse development consequences it is nowadays one of the key words in the policy debate on development measuring resilience capacity and how it varies over time is extremely significant for policy makers and people living in risk prone environments more specifically there is a gap of empirical evidence about what drives changes in resilience capacity status i e moving from a low resilience profile to a high one and viceversa this paper applies econometric techniques for estimating household resilience and adopts transition matrices to estimate how it changes over time finally multinomial logit and bivariate probit models are estimated to identify the main drivers of change our study finds that female headed households are less likely to become the most resilient also this paper demonstrates that education and participation to household enterprises are positively associated with increased resilience capacity this paper innovates the resilience literature by providing an evidence based analysis of the main drivers of resilience it brings this evidence in the uganda s context focusing the attention of the policy makers on sub sample of population which are worse off more generally our study suggests that resilience enhancing policies can bridge humanitarian and development interventions by demonstrating how long term perspectives i e those investing in education can lead to an immediate increase of resilience

imperfect commitment altruism and the family evidence from transfer behavior in low income rural areas in this paper we examine empirically whether risk pooling is more advantageous among altruistic compared to selfish agents in a framework where individuals cannot make binding commitments in particular we incorporate altuism into a model of risk sharing under imperfect commitment and use simulation methods to establish tests of the roles of both altruism and commitment problems in determining the extent of insurance and the intertemporal movements in interhousehold transfers the tests are carried out using three panel data sets from two countries of rural south asia that provide detailed information on transfers and enable the measurement of income shocks the estimates provide strong support for the notion that imperfect commitment substantially constrains informal transfer arrangements whether kin based or not but also provide evidence that altruism plays an important role in ameliorating commitment constraints and thus in increasing the gains from income pooling

on the concavity of the consumption function at least since keynes 1935 many economists have had the intuition that the marginal propensity to consume out of wealth declines as wealth increases nonetheless standard perfect certainty and certainty equivalent versions of intertemporal optimizing models of consumption imply a marginal propensity to consume that is unrelated to the level of household wealth we show that adding income uncertainty to the standard optimization problem induces a concave consumption function in which as keynes suggested the marginal propensity to consume out of wealth or transitory income declines with the level of wealth