expected utility skewness and the baseball betting market a subjective expected utility model is developed to explain the gambling behaviour of bettors on major league baseball games in the united states betting activity was examined over 15 seasons for the period 1978 1992 the observed overbetting of favourite teams by baseball bettors can be reconciled without abandoning the traditional assumption of risk aversion additionally there is some evidence to suggest that positive skewness has a discernible influence in the decision making process for higher odds contests

tax evasion on a social network abstract we relate tax evasion behavior to a substantial literature on social comparison in judgements taxpayers engage in tax evasion as a means to boost their expected consumption relative to others in their social network the unique nash equilibrium of the model relates optimal evasion to a bonacich measure of network centrality more central taxpayers evade more given that tax authorities are now investing heavily in big data tools that aim to construct social networks we investigate the value of acquiring network information we do this using networks that allow for celebrity taxpayers whose consumption is seen widely and who are systematically of higher wealth we show that there are pronounced returns to the initial acquisition of network information especially in the presence of celebrity taxpayers

handling financial resource mobilisation in technological innovation systems the case of chinese wind power to mitigate climate change a rapid and large scale expansion of sustainable innovations such as renewable energy technologies is crucial china s track record of wind power development shows both speed and scale that can provide valuable knowledge of how to stimulate and maintain transformation of energy systems the growth was made possible partly by ample access to financial capital however the rapid growth also led to growing pains and made the industry face increasing financial constraints while these constraints partly relate to structures and trends that are external to the wind power innovation system they were also a consequence of the particular path taken in chinese wind power development the case demonstrates that if a full fledged industry is to be developed and sustained a balanced growth is required and all innovation system functions need due attention sooner or later conceptually the article contributes by further exploring how mobilisation of financial resources affect and is affected by overall system dynamics

the effects of risk aversion on wagering point spread versus odds currently casinos and bookies use the point spread method for betting on football games since an odds system is used in various other sports what factors explain the current structure of the betting market as the bookie s profits are a percentage of the total money wagered the existence of point spread betting indicates that the total money wagered under this betting scheme is greater than that generated by odds betting this paper suggets that the current market structure is a consequence of risk averse attitudes of bettors

prospective measures of competitive balance application to money lines in major league baseball this study examines competitive balance in major league baseball mlb by looking at the money lines for the games during the regular season the assertion is that the closer the money lines are to indicating that each team has an equal chance of winning each game the more competitive balance there is in the league this study extends the model developed by bowman et al 2012 which used point spreads to assess competitive balance in the national football league nfl and the national basketball association nba in this study money lines for the 1999 2011 seasons were used to develop several measures of competitive balance the results indicate that competitive balance increased rather substantially during this period a by product of this research is to identify the most highly rated team and pitcher in 2002 new york yankees were the highest rated team and from the year 2000 pedro martinez was the highest rated pitcher

market efficiency and profitable wagering in the national hockey league can bettors score on longshots sports betting and racetrack markets continue to provide researchers with opportunities to test the efficient market hypothesis this paper investigates the efficiency of a relatively new sports betting market the national hockey league for 1990 1996 the market is found to be somewhat inefficient and simple wagering strategies are identified that result in profitable returns consistent with previous research for football and baseball bettors in hockey are inclined to overbet favorites relative to their observed chance of winning interestingly the market does not appear to be converging to efficiency

betting bias in exotic bets abstract the evidence from racetrack betting is that the subjective probabilities to win expressed through the public s bets are good approximations to the objective probabilities on the whole but that a betting bias exists in that favorites are underbet and long shots overbet we examine these questions for exactas and trifectas which the aid of a new database the approximation of subjective to objective probabilities is good for exactas and no betting bias is evident for trifectas the findings are more ambiguous and suggest that a taste for long shots or a misperception of true probabilities may play a role

the maturation and growth of infant industries the case of korea abstract this paper first shows that contrary to evidence from most developing countries korean infant industries under protection have tended to mature it also shows that output grows faster in infant industries than in mature ones the paper then discusses probable factors that have made the maturation and growth of infant industries possible in korea overall the empirical evidence and its interpretation support the revisionist rather than neoclassical or market friendly view in the recent debate on east asian industrialization

re examining the betting market on major league baseball games is there a reverse favourite longshot bias a recent study of the fixed odds betting market on baseball games while finding that the betting market is generally efficient also found evidence of an underbetting on underdog teams this article examines the evidence for this new anomaly it corrects woodland and woodland s estimates of the commission subjective win probabilities and test statistics the efficiency null hypothesis cannot be rejected for all of their tests when revised test statistics are calculated for their sample period however like them it was found that slight underdogs are underbet it is also shown that their bias is not simply a bias involving favourites and underdogs whether underdogs are playing at home or away also seems to matter in their sample period as well a positive relationship between returns and subjective probabilities was found for underdogs and favourites a relationship suggestive of a favourite longshot bias rather than its reverse it is concluded that there is insufficient evidence to claim that this

betting market inefficiencies are short lived in german professional football abstractin this article we argue that potential inefficiencies on betting markets are more likely to exist at the very beginning of a season when the available information on the teams playing strength is difficult to evaluate this lack of reliable information should be particularly large in the case of recently promoted teams that have typically undergone major changes in the composition of their roster following their promotion without any information on the latter teams potential performance they are particularly difficult to evaluate which may eventually lead to inefficiencies and positive returns on investment in the betting market we analyse odds from german first division bundesliga soccer for the seasons from 2002 03 to 2015 16 to find betting market inefficiencies at the start of the season as expected betting on recently promoted team wins generates temporarily positive returns especially for away games these results suggest bookmakers to underestimate promoted teams ability to fam

information effects in major league baseball betting markets previous studies point to a generally efficient baseball betting market with no profitable betting strategies however failure to consider the time of year in which the bets are placed neglects differences in available information throughout the season this analysis largely confirms the general efficiency of the major league baseball betting market by existing measures however incorporating the time of the year in which the bet is made generates persistent profitable betting strategies the process by which information impacts returns is considered increasing difficulties in determining the true favourite likely play the largest role while assessing the exact favourite underdog relationship also has an impact

efficiency of the market for racetrack betting many racetrack bettors have systems since the track is a market similar in many ways to the stock market one would expect that the basic strategies would be either fundamental or technical in nature fundamental strategies utilize past data available from racing forms special sources etc to handicap races the investor then wagers on one or more horses whose probability of winning exceeds that determined by the odds by an amount sufficient to overcome the track take technical systems require less information and only utilize current betting data they attempt to find inefficiencies in the market and bet on such overlays when they have positive expected value previous studies and our data confirm that for win bets these inefficiencies which exist for underbet favorites and overbet longshots are not sufficiently great to result in positive profits this paper describes a technical system for place and show betting for which it appears to be possible to make substantial positive profits and thus to demonstrate market inefficiency in a weak form sense estimated theoretical probabilities of all possible finishes are compared with the actual amounts bet to determine profitable betting situations since the amount bet influences the odds and theory suggests that to maximize long run growth a logarithmic utility function is appropriate the resulting model is a nonlinear program side calculations generally reduce the number of possible bets in any one race to three or less hence the actual optimization is quite simple the system was tested on data from santa anita and exhibition park using exact and approximate solutions that make the system operational at the track given the limited time available for placing bets and found to produce substantial positive profits a model is developed to demonstrate that the profits are not due to chance but rather to proper identification of market inefficiencies

the elasticity of demand for wagering in an unregulated market the literature estimating the take out rate price elasticity of horse race wagering has consistently found values far above one the persistence of these apparently inefficiently high prices can be attributed to institutional factors of the us market where federal taxes are imposed on the total amount wagered and not on the bookmakers revenue by investigating all horse races in new zealand from august 1993 to april 2009 our article is the first one to consider price setting for wagering in an unregulated market where taxes for a monopolistic betting agency are based on revenues in such a setting one would expect elasticities close to one but in all econometric specifications we find values well below one we identify two reasons why higher prices could nevertheless reduce profits cross price elasticities are negative and due to the specific features of parimutuel betting international competitors may only be attracted when take out rates are above a critical threshold

the east asian miracle study does the bell toll for industrial strategy the world bank s east asian miracle study1 has been anticipated with considerable interest by the development community it was intended not least by the japanese government that financed it to be an objective re examination of the role of government interventions in economic particularly industrial development it reflected a widespread unease that the bank was too strongly committed to a neoliberal view of the development process 2 this approach evolved over the 1980s drawing mainly upon evidence from east asia and fuelled by a shift in mainstream economics and political perceptions in the leading developed countries it formed the basis of the bank s subsequent lending and policy advice and was at the core of the structural adjustment programs that have shaped policy in many developing countries this review confines itself to the study s analysis of industrial policy concentrating on the approach and the analysis of the established nies the four tigers

misunderstanding of the binomial distribution market inefficiency and learning behavior evidence from an exotic sports betting market abstract this paper uses the setting of a volleyball game and an exotic sports betting on the point difference of volleyball games to test whether people correctly understand the probabilities related to outcomes of a process which follows a binomial distribution we find that people consistently underestimate the probabilities of outcomes that correspond to extreme ends of the distribution this is consistent with the extremeness aversion bias documented in decision making studies whereas previous studies on the extremeness aversion bias find the existence of the bias in a consumer choice setting we document that this bias also exists in an investment setting we find evidence of learning behavior over time however it is not sufficient to eliminate the bias

the length of the infant industry period evidence from the engineering industry in south korea abstract in the literature on industrialization very little is known about the length of the infant industry period this paper argues that the paucity of knowledge in this area is a serious weakness evidence from perhaps the most successful country of the past 20 years south korea suggests that the learning time in the engineering industry is much longer than anticipated two decades does not seem to be unusual it is also argued that due to both the speed of technical change and the globalization of industries the learning time has been extended in the past decades tentative implications are drawn for industrialization models and for industrial policy

mr keynes and the neo schumpeterians contributions to the analysis of the determinants of innovation from a post keynesian perspective abstract the purpose of this paper is to discuss the importance of knowledge both tacit and codified in the formation of the state of long term expectations that drive firms decisions to search for innovation and to investment in r d the paper takes the post keynesian theory as reference associating it with the neo schumpeterian analysis of innovation dynamics first it is argued that knowledge plays a crucial role in building agents confidence emphasizing that radical innovations are more dependent on the accumulation of codified knowledge given the higher degree of uncertainty associated with this type of innovation while incremental innovations are more dependent on tacit knowledge about the current market conditions and technological trajectory second it is argued that the accumulation of knowledge and the constant introduction of innovations foster the creation of a convention to innovate which facilitates the decision to pursue innovations by influencing long term expectations

racetrack betting and informed behavior abstract horse racing data permit interesting tests of attitudes toward risk the present paper studies a new sample of racetrack results from atlantic city new jersey the questions examined are 1 are the market odds the best data for predicting the order of finish 2 do horses go off at odds that reflect their true probability of winning 3 is there any evidence that late bettors have better information than early bettors it is found that market odds predict the order of finish well but that favorites are good bets and long shots are poor ones the data suggest that there does exist an informed class of bettors and that bettors are on the whole neither risk neutral nor risk averse

who compares to whom the anatomy of income comparisons in europe this article provides unprecedented direct evidence from large scale survey data on both the intensity how much and direction to whom of income comparisons income comparisons are considered to be at least somewhat important by three quarters of europeans they are associated with both lower levels of subjective well being and a greater demand for income redistribution the rich compare less and are happier than average when they do which latter is consistent with relative income theory with respect to the direction of comparisons colleagues are the most frequently cited reference group those who compare to colleagues are happier than those who compare to other benchmarks

the marginal utility of income does not increase borrowing lending and friedman savage gambles there has been a great deal of discussion about whether the marginal utility of income rises with income most notably milton friedman and leonard j savage argued in their classic paper that the willingness to gamble implies that the marginal utility of income is rising over a range the discussions of rising marginal utility and of friedman savage gambles have proceeded independently of the literature on time preference although the issues are in fact related logically drawing on this logical relationship we shall show 1 that at least when intertemporal utility is separable the stable levels of consumption that are usually observed imply that the marginal utility of income decreases as income rises 2 even if the marginal utility of income does increase friedman savage gambles normally will not maximize utility saving and dissaving can attain the levels of consumption which generate the most utility per dollar of income at a lower cost than gambles unless imperfections in the capital market are severe 3 even when the utility function is not temporally separable repeated gambling cannot be a rational way of dealing with a rising marginal utility of income we therefore conclude that observed gambling is seldom if ever explained by the logic set out in friedman and savage s seminal paper in view particularly of the stability of consumption levels and the lack of friedmansavage gambles we conclude that marginal utility of income does not rise with income i a conceptual framework

market efficiency and the favorite longshot bias the baseball betting market this paper examines the efficiency of the legal gambling market for major league baseball weak form tests of market efficiency within and across odds lines are performed surprisingly the consistently observed favorite longshot bias in racetrack betting is shown to exist in reverse for baseball bettors however these and other deviations from efficiency are shown to be insufficient to allow for profitable betting strategies when commissions are considered

the national football league season wins total betting market the impact of heuristics on behavior sports and racetrack betting markets have been investigated by researchers for more than 50 years many authors have argued that the observed biases and inefficiencies in these markets are a consequence of bettors incorrectly assessing the objective probabilities that favorites or underdogs will win this article is the first examination of the national football league season wins total over under betting market where the designations of favorite and longshot do not apply the market is found to be highly inefficient providing several opportunities for profitable wagering we believe these inefficiencies are a consequence of the representativeness heuristic most significantly there is evidence that bettors when considering teams with strong records in the previous season overreact to historical performance and fail to recognize the statistical phenomenon of regression to the mean

nonparametric tests of alternative option pricing models using all reported trades and quotes on the 30 most active cboe option classes from august 23 1976 through august 31 1978

quality and productivity in the competitive strategies of brazilian industrial enterprises abstract after a long period of protected development brazilian industry is facing the new competition an analysis of manufacturing based competitive strategies in developed countries shows a trajectory of development of competitiveness starting from price and moving through quality time diversity and uniqueness the competences needed for each element are cumulative this poses challenges for firms in developing countries which are faced with a sudden exposure to new standards of competitiveness they may recognize the need for better quality or diversity but not have the basis for achieving them the problems facing firms in brazil as they wrestle with these problems in a liberalizing economy are discussed

searching for the favourite longshot bias down under an examination of the new zealand pari mutuel betting market this paper tests for the presence of the favourite longshot bias in a new setting this bias 150 the tendency for bettors to underbet favourites and overbet longshots 150 has been found in most studies of pari mutuel and bookmaking betting markets in the usa the uk and australia however there is growing evidence that in at least some pari mutuel betting markets there is no favourite longshot bias this paper examines the previously unexplored new zealand pari mutuel betting market on horse races for evidence of this bias utilizing a large sample of recent new zealand thoroughbred horse races it is found that while early off track bettors price this bias into odds late on and off track bettors eliminate much of the bias by the close of betting that is the results reinforce the view that not all pari mutuel betting markets are characterized by a favourite longshot bias at the close of betting evidence is also found that late bettors in this market are smart bettors

game over assessing the impact of the emergence of a profitable wagering strategy in major league baseball wagering markets abstracttesting the impact of profitable investment strategies is often hampered by the practical difficulties of determining who knew what and when this study examines the impact of the publication of a profitable wagering strategy on the major league baseball wagering market while standard measures of market efficiency characterized the major league baseball win loss moneyline market to be efficient previous works shows that wagering on underdogs early in the season can generate persistent profits though the overall efficiency of the baseball wagering market remained after publication these profitable opportunities dissipated bettor behaviour is found to play varying roles across different wagering strategies up to half of the drop in returns can be attributed to wagering market participant behaviour