north south standards harmonization and international trade recent years have seen a surge in economic integration agreements eias and the development of non tariff measures ntms as a consequence a growing number of eias include provisions on ntms however little attention has been given in the literature to the effects of ntm liberalization in the context of eias in this paper we focus on provisions for technical regulations and analyze whether the north south harmonization of technical barriers affects international trade using a gravity equation it tests whether as a result of the deep integration associated with standards provisions included in the eia the southern partners trade expands with the north but at the expense of their trade with non bloc southern partners empirical results provide strong support for this conjecture moreover harmonization on the basis of regional standards negatively impacts the exports of developing countries to the north

trade restrictiveness indices in the presence of externalities an application to non tariff measures we extend the trade restrictiveness index approach to the case of market imperfections and domestic regulations addressing them we focus on standard like non tariff measures ntms affecting cost of production and potentially enhancing demand by reducing negative externalities we apply the framework to the database of kee et al 2009 and derive ad valorem equivalents aves for technical measures about 39 of the product lines affected by ntms exhibit negative aves indicating a net trade facilitating effect of these measures accounting for these effects significantly reduces previous measures of countries trade policy restrictiveness obtained while constraining these ntms to be trade reducing

domestic trade and transportation costs as barriers to international trade available evidence indicates that costs of nontraded services in domestic transportation wholesaling and retailing domestic margins are higher if a good is shipped in international trade than if it is shipped from domestic producers to domestic consumers consequently domestic margins appear to act as natural barriers to trade in the same manner as international transp ort costs do this paper presents estimates of the barriers that the domestic margins impose against u s imports and shows that they exc eed the barriers imposed by tariffs and international transport costs combined

macroeconomic linkages taxes and subsidies in the u s agricultural sector lj ar division of agricultural sciences unlversily of califorj ha ma croecono nc linkages t xes and subsidies in tiie u s agr cuttural secl or by gordon c rausser james a chalfant h alan love and kostas g stamoulis tt r i f r in i jq lifor ia agricultura experiment station clmoation of j gricultural economics january 1986

reputation matters spillover effects for developing countries in the enforcement of us food safety measures abstract we use data on us food import refusals to show for the first time that reputational spillovers are important factors in the enforcement of food safety measures the odds of a country experiencing at least one import refusal increase by over 100 if there was a refusal of the same product from a neighboring country in the preceding year similarly the odds of a refusal increase by 62 if there was a refusal of a related product from the same country in the preceding year these findings have important policy implications for exporters of agricultural products particularly in middle income developing countries

determinants of world demand for u s corn seeds the role of trade costs the united states is a large net exporter of corn seeds seed trade including corn has been expanding but its determinants are not well understood this paper econometrically investigates the determinants of world demand for u s corn seeds with a detailed analysis of trade costs impeding exports flows to various markets trade costs include costs associated with distance tariffs and sanitary phytosanitary sps regulations imposed by foreign countries on u s corn seed exports sps policy information comes from the excerpt data base of usda aphis the analysis relies on a gravity like model based on an explicit specification of derived demand for seed by foreign corn producers a sps count variable is incorporated as a shifter in the unit cost of seeds faced by foreign users we use data from 48 countries and for the years 1989 to 2004 we find that all trade costs matter and have had a negative impact on u s corn seed exports tariffs matter most followed by sps measures and distance an extensive econometric investigation reveals that qualitative results are robust to specification changes but that sample selection bias is present in log linear specifications based on seed export levels and approximating zero trade data with a small positive number

how important are tariffs and nontariff barriers in international markets for fresh fruit international markets for agricultural products are often subject to a range of trade barriers and horticultural products are no exception this article examines the economic implications of tariffs and sanitary and phytosanitary sps regulations that are applied to global markets for fresh apples and fresh oranges we calculate regional level tariff rates and ad valorem equivalents for sps barriers following the price wedge approach a simulation model is developed and used to assess the price quantity and welfare implications of reducing tariffs removing sps barriers and removing sps barriers that have been identified as a specific trade concern stc by the world trade organization results suggest that a 36 reduction in global tariffs would lead to greater welfare gains than would the elimination of sps measures in apple markets however in orange markets we find that sps measures have much larger economic implications for producers and consumers here a 36 reduction in tariffs would lead to smaller overall welfare effects compared to removal of all sps measures and only slightly larger effects than those from removal of stcs alone

using usda forecasts to estimate the price flexibility of demand for agricultural commodities we estimate the general equilibrium price flexibility of demand for corn and soybeans using monthly changes in expected supply published by the usda our estimates reflect the demand response to a one year supply shock and thus correspond to the inverse demand elasticity we derive the conditions under which our estimates are consistent and we show how demand flexibility varies by season inventory time horizon and demand composition at average inventory and without accounting for corn ethanol use we obtain price flexibility estimates of 1 35 and 1 03 for corn and soybeans respectively current corn ethanol production levels are associated with much larger absolute flexibilities for both commodities copyright 2012 oxford university press

an assessment of environmentally related non tariff measures international trade can affect the environment in different ways this may justify the introduction of border measures by the importing countries in addition to various dispositions in the gatt gats trips agreements as well as in the agreement on agriculture this issue is regulated by the agreements on technical barriers to trade tbt and on the application of sanitary and phyto sanitary standards sps despite these rules abuse of environmental arguments for protectionist reasons remains an open issue in order to disentangle protectionism from dispositions justified on the grounds of true environmental concerns we systematically review notifications of sps and tbts by importing countries at the tariff line level trade is considered as being potentially affected when an environmental sps tbt is notified on grounds of environmental concerns affected trade is defined as imports by countries notifying such barriers protectionist use of environmental barriers is likely when only a limited number of countries impose an environmental obstacle on the imports of a given product considering data for 2001 we find that 88 per cent of the value of world trade is in products potentially affected by such measures while 39 per cent of the value of world imports is potentially subject to a protectionist use of such measures agriculture the automobile industry the pharmaceutical industry and many other sectors are concerned

religious competition and reallocation using novel microdata we document an important unintended consequence of the protestant reformation a reallocation of resources from religious to secular purposes to understand this process we propose a conceptual framework in which the introduction of religious competition shifts political markets where religious authorities provide legitimacy to rulers in exchange for control over resources consistent with our framework religious competition changed the balance of power between secular and religious elites secular authorities acquired enormous amounts of wealth from monasteries closed during the reformation particularly in protestant regions this transfer of resources had significant consequences first it shifted the allocation of upper tail human capital graduates of protestant universities increasingly took secular especially administrative occupations protestant university students increasingly studied secular subjects especially degrees that prepared students for public sector jobs rather than church sector specific theology second it affected the sectoral composition of fixed investment particularly in protestant regions new construction shifted from religious toward secular purposes especially the building of palaces and administrative buildings which reflected the increased wealth and power of secular lords reallocation was not driven by preexisting economic or cultural differences our findings indicate that the reformation played an important causal role in the secularization of the west

learning by doing and learning from others human capital and technical change in agriculture household level panel data from a nationally representative sample of rural indian households describing the adoption and profitability of high yielding seed varieties hyvs associated with the green revolution are used to test the implications of a model incorporating learning by doing and learning spillovers the estimates indicate that i imperfect knowledge about the management of the new seeds was a significant barrier to adoption ii this barrier diminished as farmer experience with the new technologies increased iii own experience and neighbors experience with hyvs significantly increased hyv profitability and iv farmers do not fully incorporate the village returns to learning in making adoption decisions

effects of fiscal policies on us agriculture according to the macro rational expectation mre hypothesis only unanticipated macroeconomic policy has impacts on real economic variables and anticipated policy changes have no real impacts this study analysis the effects of the anticipated and unanticipated components of fiscal policy on the us farm real gnp by testing the neutrality and rationality propositions of the mre hypothesis the test results show that both the rationality and neutrality propositions are rejected the empirical findings indicate that the anticipated fiscal policy does have significant effects on farm output examination of a specific sector sheds light on the nature of the market and helps ascertain the resons for the non neutrality

can firms location decisions counteract the balassa samuelson effect this paper examines the determinants of relative prices in a model combining a harrod balassa samuelson hbs mechanism and an endogenous location of traded good producers besides the standard hbs effect asymmetric productivity improvements in the traded good sector push new firms to enter the market this benefits local consumers who save on trade costs and exerts an upward pressure on relative wages as a consequence relative prices in the traded good sector either increase or fall in general equilibrium in a panel cointegration framework the wage effect is shown to dominate this means the hbs effect is strengthened by the relocation of traded good producers

the effects of farm subsidies on farm exports in the united states we estimate the elasticity of u s farm exports to u s farm subsidies using a gravity model of state level farm exports to 100 major trading destinations for the period 1999 to 2011 our identification strategy exploits the within state variation that is free of endogeneity bias in the levels and trends of farm subsidies and farm exports we find that a 1 decrease in farm subsidies would reduce u s farm exports by 0 40 per annum this equivalently means that the complete abolishment of the farm subsidy program would reduce u s farm exports by approximately 15 3 billion per year importantly we document robust evidence that amber box subsidy programs such as counter cyclical payments and marketing loan gains have the strongest effect on farm exports while green box subsidy payments such as direct payments have negligible effects finally subsidy payments affect exports only in agricultural commodities not in livestock our subsidy elasticity estimates are statistically significant stable and economically meaningful and are vitally needed by u s and global policymakers in the face of critical domestic and international developments

the impact of sanitary and phytosanitary measures on market entry and trade flows in an attempt to disentangle the impact of sanitary and phytosanitary sps measures on trade patterns we estimate a heckman selection model on the hs4 disaggregated level of trade we find that aggregated sps measures constitute barriers to agricultural and food trade consistently to all exporters but conditional on market entry trade flows are positively affected by sps measures additionally we find that sps measures related to conformity assessment hamper market entry and trade flows while sps measures related to product characteristics pose an entry barrier but increase bilateral trade flows conditional on meeting the standard

the causal impact of haccp on seafood imports in the u s an application of difference in differences within the gravity model abstract we offer a difference in differences did approach to assess the causal effect of hazard analysis by critical control points haccp a food safety regulation on u s seafood imports with a gravity model and event specific changes with a panel database of u s seafood imports from 217 partner countries from 1991 to 2006 we employ a causal framework of analysis with a treatment group of u s seafood imports and two alternative control groups u s food imports outside of haccp rules and the european union s 15 seafood imports further we assess the effects of haccp on the intensive and extensive margins of u s seafood imports contrary to previous work we find that haacp implementation has no effect on the flow of u s seafood imports while the estimates of the other key variables are consistent across the models seen in previous work thus we find evidence that non tariff measures like haccp had net null effect on imports though the distribution of imports shifted

regionalism in standards good or bad for trade regional agreements on standards have been largely ignored by economists and unconditionally blessed by multilateral trade rules the authors find theoretically and empirically that such agreements increase trade between participating countries but not necessarily with the rest of the world adopting a common standard in a region that is harmonization boosts exports of excluded industrial countries to the region but it reduces exports of excluded developing countries possibly because developing country firms are hurt more by an increase in the stringency of standards and benefit less from economies of scale in integrated markets mutual recognition agreements are more uniformly trade promoting unless they contain restrictive rules of origin in which case intra regional trade increases at the expense of trade with other especially developing countries the authors propose a modification of international trade rules to strike a better balance between the interests of integrating and excluded countries

market approval of phytosanitary active substances in europe an empirical duration analysis abstract the aim of this paper is to analyze empirically the main determinants of delays to market approval of active substances in europe an interesting feature of this regulation is that it is based on both a decentralized examination by the rapporteur country and a centralized examination by the european food safety authority efsa our econometric analysis is based on standard survival and competing risks models the data cover 393 active substances reviewed between 1993 and 2013 we show that the review process is affected by regulatory factors the characteristics of the active substances and the characteristics of agri chemical firms log logistic and log normal survival models are the preferred parametric specifications and the results suggest that the hazard function is non monotonic over time

learning about a new technology pineapple in ghana this paper investigates the role of social learning in the diffusion of a new agri cultural technology in ghana we use unique data on farmers communication patterns to define each individual s information neighborhood conditional on many potentially confounding variables we find evidence that farmers adjust their inputs to align with those of their information neighbors who were surpris ingly successful in previous periods the relationship of these input adjustments to experience further indicates the presence of social learning in addition applying the same method to input choices for another crop of known technol ogy correctly indicates an absence of social learning effects jel d83 013 033 q16

understanding cultural persistence and change when does culture persist and when does it change we examine a determinant that has been put forth in the anthropology literature the variability of the environment from one generation to the next a prediction which emerges from a class of existing models from evolutionary anthropology is that following the customs of the previous generation is relatively more beneficial in stable environments where the culture that has evolved up to the previous generation is more likely to be relevant for the subsequent generation we test this hypothesis by measuring the variability of average temperature across 20 year generations from 500 1900 looking across countries ethnic groups and the descendants of immigrants we find that populations with ancestors who lived in environments with more stability from one generation to the next place a greater importance in maintaining tradition today these populations also exhibit more persistence in their traditions over time

predatory versus productive government the case of u s agricultural policies this essay will argue that agricultural policy in the united states has led to both the enhancement of efficiency through productive policies and the transfer of wealth and income to special interests through redistributive or predatory policies these two activities can be labeled as pests and perts pest policies or political economic seeking transfers are meant to redistribute wealth from one social group to another and are not explicitly concerned with efficiency in contrast perts or political economic resource transactions are intended to correct market failures or to provide public goods these policies have neutral distributional effects at least in design a review of the history of public policy in agriculture reveals not only tension between the pert and pest roles of the public sector but also some coordination between these two types of activities as different interest groups pressure the political process the government trades off pests and perts in its attempts to acquire balance and secure political power at times this has led to combinations of programs that appear incoherent in such a world the challenge for economists is to design and advocate policies that are both economically productive and politically sustainable

the impact of regulatory heterogeneity on agri food trade we estimate the impact of regulatory heterogeneity on agri food trade using a gravity analysis that relies on detailed data on non tariff measures ntms collected by the ntm impact project the data cover a broad range of import requirements for agricultural and food products for the eu and nine of its major trade partners we find that trade is significantly reduced when importing countries have stricter maximum residue limits mrls for plant products than exporting countries for most other measures due to their qualitative nature we were unable to infer whether the importer has stricter standards relative to the exporter and we do not find a robust relationship between these measures and trade our findings suggest that at least for some import standards harmonising regulations will increase trade we also conclude that tariff reductions remain an effective means to increase trade even when ntms abound

assessing the impact of unilateral trade policies eba and agoa on african beneficiaries exports using matching econometrics the existing literature studying the impact of non reciprocal preferential trade agreements nrptas assumes implicitly nrptas are non randomly assigned without showing the evidence of that using a matching methodology this paper investigates whether the african growth and opportunity act agoa and the everything but arms eba unilateral trade concessions have had an impact and in what magnitude on the exports of african beneficiary countries in the light of the evidence of the non random nature endogeneity of nrptas methodologically previous studies using the matching procedure focused on bi or multilateral trade agreements our work focuses on nrptas that depend only on donors conditions accordingly we show that for nrptas gravity covariates cannot be used for the matching procedure we propose to use political variables as determinants for obtaining non reciprocal trade preferences in order to address the endogenous nature of nrpta assignment our main results confirm that a country becomes eligible for a nrpta only when it meets certain conditions defined by their donors such as political stability and economic regulation for agoa and freedom of expression and human development for eba results also show that both agoa and eba policies have had a positive impact on african beneficiary countries exports to nrpta s providers even if the magnitude impact of eba is significantly lower than that of agoa

religion and work micro evidence from contemporary germany abstract using micro data from contemporary germany this paper studies the connection between protestantism and modern day labor market outcomes to address the endogeneity in self declared religion i exploit a provision in a sixteenth century peace treaty which determined the geographic distribution of catholics and protestants reduced form and instrumental variable estimates provide no evidence of an effect of protestantism on hourly wages however relative to their catholic counterparts protestants do appear to work longer hours the patterns in the data are difficult to reconcile with explanations based on institutional factors or religious differences in human capital acquisition religious differences in individuals values however can account for most of the estimated effects

adopting a new religion the case of protestantism in 16th century germany using a dataset of territories and cities of the holy roman empire in the sixteenth century this article investigates the determinants of adoption and diffusion of protestantism as a state religion a territory s distance to wittenberg the city where martin luther taught is a major determinant of adoption this finding is consistent with a theory of strategic neighbourhood interactions introducing the reformation was a risky enterprise for territorial lords and had higher prospects of success if powerful neighbouring states committed to the new faith the actual spatial and temporal patterns of expansion of protestantism are analysed in a panel dataset

an economic analysis of the protestant reformation this paper seeks to explain the initial successes and failures of protestantism on economic grounds it argues that the medieval roman catholic church through doctrinal manipulation the exclusion of rivals and various forms of price discrimination ultimately placed members seeking the z good spiritual services on the margin of defection these monopolistic practices encouraged entry by rival firms some of which were aligned with civil governments the paper hypothesizes that protestant entry was facilitated in emergent entrepreneurial societies characterized by the decline of feudalism and relatively unstable distribution of wealth and repressed in more homogeneous rent seeking societies that were mostly dissipating rather than creating wealth in these societies the roman church was more able to continue the practice of price discrimination informal tests of this proposition are conducted by considering primogeniture and urban growth as proxies for wealth stability

people s opium religion and economic attitudes since max weber there has been an active debate on the impact of religion on people s economic attitudes much of the existing evidence however is based on cross country studies in which this impact is confounded by differences in other institutional factors we use the worldvalues surveys to id entify the relationship between intensity of religious beliefs and economic attitudes controlling for country fixed effects we study several economic attitudes towardcooperation the government working women legal rules thriftiness andthe market economy we also distinguish across religious denominations differentiating on whether a religion is dominant in a country we find that on average religious beliefs are associated with good economic attitudes where good is defined as conducive to higher per capita income andgrowth yet religious people tendto be more racist andless favorable with respect to working women these effects differ across religious denominations overall we find that christian religions are more positively associatedwith attitudes conducive to economic growth r 2003 elsevier science b v all rights reserved jel classification a1 e0 n4 z1

the importance of eu 15 borders for ceecs agri food exports the role of tariffs and non tariff measures in the pre accession period abstract this paper assesses the evolution of the eu 15 market access for the agri food products originating from ceecs a gravity model technique has been used to assess the overall trade resistance border effect and to weight its various components such as tariff and non tariff measures sanitary and phytosanitary standards other quality measures in the pre accession period 1999 2004 the findings reveal despite the undertaken integration and trade liberalisation processes a persisting and significant trade resistance for the ceecs agri food exports to the eu market even just prior their accession in 2004 still present difficulties in market access at the time are partially explained by tariff and non tariff measures while a large part of border effect remains in the domain of other presumably non trade policy related factors home bias consumer preferences etc these results indicate that despite the accession process customs union and adoption of the eu standards the trade integration of the enlarged eu market was not yet completed in 2004

counterfeit product trade the authors analyze trade in both legitimate and counterfeit products domestic firms ow n trademarks and establish reputations for delivering high quality pr oducts in a steady state equilibrium foreign suppliers export legiti mate low quality merchandise and counterfeits of domestic brand name merchandise heterogeneous home consumers either purchase low quality imports or brand name products rationally expecting some degree of counterfeiting of the latter the authors describe the positive and normative effects of counterfeiting in comparison with a no counterfe iting benchmark they also provide a welfare analysis of border inspe ction policy and of policy regarding the disposition of counterfeit g oods that are confiscated at the border copyright 1988 by american economic association

non tariff measures specific trade concerns and tariff reduction this paper studies the determinants of the recent proliferation of specific trade concerns raised at the wto on non tariff trade measures ntms with a focus on sanitary and phytosanitary sps and technical barriers to trade tbts even though ntms are imposed de jure to protect consumers from unhealthy products they increase trade costs de facto so when tariff protection lowers ntms become effective barriers to trade and the exporting countries can complain at the dedicated committee at the wto stcs therefore we study whether stcs are raised by exporting countries as a consequence of tariff reductions in importing countries that is when non tariff measures become barriers to trade using a recent database on stcs over the period 1996 2010 we find empirical evidence that sps and tbt concerns are raised by exporting country as a consequence of importer s tariff cut

trade in the triad how easy is the access to large markets in this paper we measure market access between the united states the eu and japan the triad using the effect of national borders on trade patterns we investigate overall and industry level trends of bilateral trade openness and provide explanations for those using proxies for bilateral observed protection tariffs and ntbs home bias of consumers product differentiation and levels of fdi the explanations related to actual protection home bias and substitutability of goods put together explain a large part of the border effect between blocs of the triad although they do not explain the whole of the border effect puzzle jel classification f12 f15 commerce dans la triade jusqu a quel point l acces aux grands marches est il facile cet article mesure le niveau d integration commerciale entre les pays de l ue le japon et les etats unis la triade en utilisant l effet des frontieres nationales sur le commerce international nous etudions le niveau et l evolution du degre d ouverture bilateral ainsi que les differentes explications possibles des effets frontiere estimes qui sont testees a l aide de variables capturant la protection tarifs et bnts le biais domestique des consommateurs le degre de differenciation des produits et les niveaux d ide bilateraux les explications liees a la protection au biais domestique et a la substituabilite entre produits considerees ensemble expliquent une bonne partie de l effet frontiere entre pays de la triade meme si elles n expliquent pas la totalite de l enigme

do sanitary phytosanitary and quality related standards affect international trade evidence from chilean fruit exports summary increasing awareness of food safety issues has led to intensive use of sanitary phytosanitary and quality related regulations and standards imposing a burden on exporting countries worldwide this study assesses the impact of such regulations and standards estimating a gravity model for chilean fresh fruit exports that incorporates a stringency perception index that comprises different dimensions of trade requirements our results suggest that an increase in stringency has a negative and substantial effect on exported volumes and the reduction is higher if stringency increases in developed countries results also showed that different dimensions have different effects on trade

compositional standards import permits and market structure the case of canadian cheese imports the imposition of cheese compositional standards by the canadian authorities has created divisions within the canadian dairy industry and has motivated criticisms from several of canada s trade partners the standards impose minimum limits on the percentage of casein coming from fluid milk we develop a theoretical model to investigate the implications of canada s compositional cheese standards while accounting for canada s trade policy we illustrate why a type of cheese that is not directly impacted by the standards might be the most affected we show that the standards can decrease the domestic demand for milk or the value of imports our empirical investigation identified breaks in the processes determining import unit values shortly before or shortly after the beginning of the implementation of the standards

relative agricultural prices and monetary policy an imperfect information rational expectations model of relative price determination is presented this model provides an econometric specification for testing for a causal relationship between money and the relative prices of agricultural commodities test results indicate that variations in the growth rate of the nominal money supply whether anticipated or unanticipated have not been an important influence on the average level of prices received by farmers relative to other prices in the economy over the period 1951 85

was weber wrong a human capital theory of protestant economic history max weber attributed the higher economic prosperity of protestant regions to a protestant work ethic we provide an alternative theory protestant economies prospered because instruction in reading the bible generated the human capital crucial to economic prosperity we test the theory using county level data from late nineteenth century prussia exploiting the initial concentric dispersion of the reformation to use distance to wittenberg as an instrument for protestantism we find that protestantism indeed led to higher economic prosperity but also to better education our results are consistent with protestants higher literacy accounting for most of the gap in economic prosperity

how far from harmonization are sanitary phytosanitary and quality related standards an exporter s perception approach harmonization of trade regulations and standards is perhaps the most contentious issue regarding export markets due to the impacts that it can have on trade we determine the extent of harmonization as perceived by exporters with respect to the major sanitary and phytosanitary standards spss and quality measures which chile faces in 16 international fresh fruit markets the methodology combined qualitative and quantitative techniques first the most relevant safety and quality standards and regulations were identified and ranked second a representative sample of exporters was interviewed to assess their perceptions regarding the level of stringency across markets and time for selected regulations perceptions were ranked on a likert scale and based on this scale a stringency index was constructed the results show that chile faces regulations which can be grouped into the following categories i phytosanitary measures ii tolerance limits for pesticide residues and contaminants iii hygiene requirements iv labeling marking and packaging v product and process standards and vi registration procedures and other import requirements the number of regulations varied among countries ranging from 13 to 3 out of the 14 considered in the study the most stringent country among the sample as perceived by exporters was mexico whereas the least stringent was saudi arabia additionally exporters agreed that stringency has increased over time with an average of 15 between 2005 and 2009

incumbent behavior vote seeking tax setting and yardstick competition this paper develops a model of the political economy of tax setting in a multijurisdictional world where voters choices and incumbent behavior are determined simultaneously voters are assumed to make comparisons between jurisdictions to overcome political agency problems this forces incumbents into a yardstick competition in which they care about what other incumbents are doing we provide a theoretical framework and empirical evidence using u s state data from 1960 to 1988 the results are encouraging to the view that vote seeking and tax setting are tied together through the nexus of yardstick competition

does aid for trade enhance export performance investigating on the infrastructure channel today there are few empirical studies assessing the effectiveness of aid for trade on trade pe rformance furthermore existing works do not test channels by which this impact is transiting we address this question using an empirical analysis constructed in two steps following a model of export performance we first test if institutions and infrastructure our two potential channels of transmission are indeed determinants of export performance secondly we test the impact of aid for trade sectoral flows on the determinants that were highlighted in the first part we show that the infrastructure channel appears to be highly significant in the first step whereas the institutional one turns out to have limited impact on developing countries exports furthermore in our second step aid for infrastructure seems once instrumented to have a strong and positive impact on the infrastructure level our results indicate that a 10 increase in aid to infrastructure commitments per capita leads to an average increase of the exports over gdp ratio for a developing country of 2 34 it is also equivalent to a 2 71 reduction of the tariff and non tariff barriers this highlights the very high economic impact of aid for trade throughout the channel of infrastructures

making eu trade agreements work the role of rules of origin a key element of the eu s free trade and preferential trade agreements is the extent to which they deliver improved market access and so contribute to the eu s foreign policy objectives towards developing countries and neighbouring countries in europe including the countries of the balkans previous preferential trade schemes have been ineffective in delivering improved access to the eu market since only a small proportion of the available preferences have actually been utilised the main reason for this is probably the very restrictive rules of origin that the eu imposes coupled with the costs of proving consistency with these rules if the eu wants the everything but arms agreement and free trade agreements with countries in the balkans to generate substantial improvements in access to the eu market for products from these countries then it will have to reconsider the current rules of origin and implement less restrictive rules backed up by a careful safeguards policy

the volatility debate discussion in his paper the volatility debate shiller examines a narrow concept of volatility associated with efficiencies as measured by the relationship of stock prices to discounted future dividends the paper is essentially a review and defense of shiller s writings on stock price volatility i have two main criticisms first this debate is already in the literature the evidence against shiller s concept of efficiency is strong and it need not be further belabored whether his concept of efficiency is appropriate needs more attention second whether stock markets are efficient is of limited consequences for agriculture issues of greater interest here are efficiency of the speculative markets in agriculture commodity markets and land markets and the mechanisms that explain the volatility in these markets

exchange rate effects on agricultural exports transaction level evidence from pakistan this article examines the effects of domestic currency depreciation on agricultural exports from pakistan including the responses of price and quantity margins it uses highly disaggregated firm level data that contains the exchange rates of the actual currencies of invoicing at the transaction level the study finds that the currency depreciation positively affects both intensive and extensive margins the intensive margin increase in agricultural exports operates mainly through prices whereas the response of quantities is relatively smaller moreover depreciation improves the extensive margins of firms and products and expands the client base in existing markets these responses vary widely across firms exporting experience trade orientation sectoral and spatial distribution exchange rate regimes and invoicing currencies

trading with conditions the effect of sanitary and phytosanitary measures on the agricultural exports from low income countries market access for agricultural products is increasingly determined by capability to comply with a wide array of regulatory measures from a trade perspective one of the most important aspects of such regulatory measures is their potential distortionary effect as their cost of compliance is often asymmetrical across countries this paper investigates the effect of the european union s sanitary and phytosanitary sps measures on the exports from low income countries this study finds that sps measures result in relatively higher burden for low income countries but that membership in deep trade agreements seems to reduce the difficulties related to compliance with sps measures these results are consistent with the hypothesis that while many middle and high income countries have the internal capacity to comply with sps measures most low income countries do not

leadership turnover and the durability of international trade commitments under what conditions do states uphold their formal trade commitments while recent work focuses on the formation and design of trade agreements we know comparatively little about the durability of agreements over time we argue that government turnover undermines states commitments to liberalization even if they have already signed an international agreement meant to constrain their behavior we test this argument using data on realized trade in the presence of around 300 preferential trade agreements ptas since 1970 even in the presence of an international agreement ideological turnover is associated with increased political barriers to trade especially when the shift is toward left wing leaders these findings have important implications for our understanding of international cooperation if new leaders do not adhere to their predecessors commitments international agreements may not have lasting economic consequences

the welfare implications of services liberalization in a developing country abstract we propose an integrated method based on a two sector small open economy dynamic and stochastic general equilibrium model to estimate non tariff barriers and quantify the impact of services liberalization the major component of trade barriers is explicitly modeled through the introduction of entry sunk costs hence liberalization is treated assuming a government s policy decision aimed at reducing those costs then we estimate the model using bayesian techniques for tunisia and the euro area the paper presents a precise quantitative evaluation of services trade barriers as the difference between entry sunk costs in tunisia versus the euro area we find significant welfare benefits in addition to aggregate and sectoral growth gains the tunisian economy could attain following services liberalization surprisingly the good sector is the one that benefits the most from services liberalization in the short and long term horizons

disguised protectionism and linkages to the gatt wto member states of the gatt wto have linked some issue areas outside trade to the institution and did so with varying depths at the same time they have chosen not to link other issue areas what accounts for this variation the author argues that states establish a legalized linkage between the gatt wto and an issue area outside it when they are uncertain about the possibilities of disguised protectionism such uncertainty exists under two conditions when diversity in regulations in an issue area across states generates a large adverse impact on trade negative externalities but that diversity can be justified at the international level for 1 having an independent objective apart from hampering trade and 2 when there are few alternative policies to achieve that objective legitimacy states establish a highly legalized linkage in these situations to reduce the uncertainty and minimize disguised protectionism by contrast when regulatory diversity exhibits low legitimacy states establish only a weakly legalized linkage in the absence of meaningful externalities they do not establish any linkages the author evaluates this argument in two ways he provides an overview of eleven issue areas about which there have been some debates or conflicts about linkages to the gatt wto in addition he carries out in depth case studies of three issue areas labor standards environmental standards and health safety standards the findings of this article contribute to a better understanding of international institutions and cooperation as well as of the evolution of the multilateral trade institution

latin america as a target of trade barriers erected by the major developed countries in 1983 abstract according to an unctad data set nontariff barriers were applied by 14 major industrialized importers against 19 percent of latin american exports this is not an unusually high coverage ratio australia and new zealand and japan faced substantially more frequent barriers the effects of these barriers on latin american exports are difficult to estimate the estimates vary substantially depending on the method of estimation one method estimates that latin american exports to this group of 14 importers have been reduced by trade barriers by a total of 34 percent varying from 5 percent for mexico to 75 percent for argentina

agricultural price policy in general equilibrium models results and comparisons a number of alternative policies toward agricultural prices food subsidies and intersectoral allocation of investment are analyzed with computable general equilibrium models for six countries the models generally allow us to trace the intersectoral and intertemporal growth effects of these policies as well as their income distribution effects across social groups the results obtained are shown to be eventually quite different from those derived from partial equilibrium and multimarket approaches sensitivity analysis to alternative specifications of the mechanism of wage determination shows that the real income effects of price policies are critically dependent upon the particular theory of wage determination used

the welfare effects of distribution regulations in oecd countries i introduction the distribution sector plays a crucial and large role in most economies 1 in the g 7 united states japan germany france united kingdom italy and canada distribution s share of gross domestic product gdp ranges from 8 to 15 and its share in employment ranges from 11 to 19 pilat 1997 table 2 1 because almost all goods in an economy pass through this sector distribution can heavily influence prices for consumer goods in particular these price effects can be large in organisation for economic cooperation and development oecd countries consumer prices for final goods exceed the corresponding producer prices by 40 and more in addition to indeed because of its economic importance distribution producers enjoy substantial political clout and have won many favorable regulations from the political process see kalirajan 2000 and pilat 1997 these regulations may impose large welfare costs and may exert a large influence on trade flows nonetheless relatively few publications rigorously analyze the potential overall welfare and trade effects of deregulating distribution this study seeks to fill some of that void i first provide a brief overview of distribution regulations then i present new internationally comparable distribution margins data for a sample of eight oecd countries these data are used to infer the extent to which distribution regulations reduce efficiency for four of these countries i conduct an applied general equilibrium age analysis of the welfare effects of high margins and find that they impose large costs rivaling those of protection it appears that efforts to increase economic welfare should not ignore the potentially large gains from liberalizing distribution this article also examines the relationship between restricted distribution and imports ii distribution regulations several studies have described a variety of distribution regulations in oecd countries nicoletti 2001 boylaud 2000 kalirajan 2000 and pilat 1997 provide excellent overviews these studies imply that despite some liberalization many impediments remain the most burdensome regulations include restrictions on large stores onerous business set up rules restrictive zoning laws and other real estate regulations limits on product ranges store hours and pricing and monopoly distributors for certain products such as pharmaceuticals liquor and tobacco in addition many local regulations work under the radar of studies such as these the limited literature on the subject implies that distribution regulations reduce welfare pellegrini 2000 estimates that deregulating retail trade would increase italian gdp by more than 1 japan s economic planning agency 1996 finds that loosening restrictions on large retailers has increased japanese gdp by 1 pilat 1997 cites a european commission study that finds that liberalizing store hours has greatly increased consumer welfare carree and nijkamps 2001 find efficiency gains after entry barrier removal in the netherlands nicoletti 2001 concludes both simulation and econometric studies point unequivocally to potentially large welfare gains from the liberalization of retail trade also burda 2000 and studies cited in nicoletti 2001 find that employment would increase not decrease with liberalization these studies provide valuable information but none simulate the effect of a country s total package of distribution regulations on welfare i do so by exploiting age modeling which takes account of links among industries and nations to produce broad brushed estimates of inflated margins effects in multiple countries distribution s widespread influence on an economy makes an age approach especially important 2 iii measuring margins the underlying data the distribution margins data grow out of protection data developed in bradford 1998 2003

measuring protection mission impossible abstract there seems to be some confusion between openness and protection measures in the international trade literature the aim of this paper is to bring together the state of the art in quantifying trade policy measures and for this reason we focus on the extent of the protection granted by policies rather than on the degree of openness of the economy given the considerable amount of literature that deals with these issues we will limit our review as follows on the one hand we focus on trade policies implemented at the border and therefore do not consider all the other possible public interventions influencing trade flows on the other hand we only take into account indexes that explicitly adopt a metric expressed in a scalar aggregate tariff and quota equivalent measures or an index in a closed interval we distinguish between indexes that aggregate across products same barrier for more products and indexes that aggregate across instruments more barriers for the same product finally in order to classify the large number of indexes covered in our review we propose a typology based on three categories incidence outcome and equivalence

disentangling demand enhancing and trade cost effects of maximum residue regulations maximum residue level mrl regulations in plant products can create unnecessary trade barriers on one hand and enhance demand via risk mitigation or quality assurance on the other we stipulate a generalized gravity equation model to disentangle the effects of mrls on the import demand and foreign exporters supply applying the framework to the mrls on pesticides imposed by high income organization for economic co operation and development countries we find that the mrls jointly enhance the import demand and hinder foreign exporters supply in addition exporters from the less and least developed countries are more constrained by the mrls than their competitors from the developed world jel f14 q17

the dynamic responses of crop and livestock prices to money supply shocks a bayesian analysis using long run identifying restrictions the impact of monetary policy on agriculture has been much debated this study examines the dynamic responses of u s agricultural prices to money supply shocks using three innovations first the variables responses are identified by long run money neutrality restrictions instead of the more common contemporaneous ordering second a bayesian approach to model uncertainty is used to add robustness to the estimation process third agricultural prices are disaggregated into crop and livestock components the empirical results find that both agricultural sectors benefit in the short run from positive money supply shocks with agricultural prices increasing relative to the general price level

implications of the macroeconomic outlook for agriculture this paper analyzes the implications for agriculture of the macroeconomic scenarios put forth by bosworth and lawrence a substantial body of work in recent years has developed both the theoretical framework and empirical evidence on the channels of influence between the macroeconomy and agriculture the aaea sponsored preconference workshop this year entitled value of large scale aggregate models for economic policy analysis manifests the profession s interest in quantifying the effects that macroeconomic factors have upon the economic performance and financial health of agriculture this paper draws upon the findings of previous work in general terms but more specifically we present the agricultural implications of two alternative macroeconomic environments implied by an existing macroeconomic model which emphasizes agriculture s interface with the macroeconomy the second section of this paper reviews the major findings of the literature on transmission mechanisms linking agriculture with the general economy the third section provides key details of how agriculture fares under bosworth and lawrence s outlook for the general economy through 1990 including the implications for farm prices cash receipts wealth and financial stress the fourth section discusses the consequences of one potential deviation from bosworth and lawrence s out

luther and suleyman this paper emphasizes that the evolution of religious institutions in europe was influenced by the expansionary threat posed by the ottoman empire between the mid 15th century and the early 17th century various historical accounts have suggested that the ottomans rise helped the protestant reform movement as well as its various offshoots such as zwinglianism anabaptism and calvinism survive their infancy and mature utilizing a comprehensive dataset on violent conflicts for the period between 1451 and 1650 i find strong empirical support for the idea that ottoman military engagements in continental europe lowered the number and extent of violent conflicts among and within the european states ottomans influence in europe extended to the feud between the protestant reformers and the catholic establishment during the time between the birth of lutheranism and the end of the thirty years war the likelihood and timing of military engagements between the protestant reformers and the counter reformation forces depended negatively and statistically significantly on ottomans military activities in europe

hidden protectionism evidence from non tariff barriers to trade in the united states abstract can the enforcement of product standards be protectionism in disguise this paper estimates the costs of non compliance with u s product standards using a new database on u s import refusals from 2002 to 2014 we find that import refusals decrease exports to the united states this trade reducing effect is driven by developing countries and by refusals without any product sample analysis in particular during the subprime crisis and its aftermath we also provide evidence that given product standards were enforced more strictly during the crisis while the quality of imported products did not deteriorate these results are consistent with the existence of counter cyclical hidden protectionism due to non tariff barriers to trade in the united states

evaluating the trade restrictiveness of phytosanitary measures on u s fresh fruit and vegetable imports empirically assessing sanitary and phytosanitary regulations has proven difficult because most data sources indicate whether a regulation exists but provide no information on the type or importance of the respective measure in this article we construct a novel database of u s phytosanitary measures and match these to 47 fresh fruit and vegetable product imports from 89 exporting countries over the period 1996 2008 a product line gravity equation that accounts for zero trade flows is developed to investigate the trade impact of different pest mitigation measures while the results suggest that phytosanitary treatments generally reduce trade the actual restrictiveness of these measures diminishes dramatically as exporters accumulate experience and it vanishes when exporters reach a certain threshold the results have important policy implications considering the number of empirical studies that find a negative impact of non tariff measures on trade copyright 2013 oxford university press

the extent of nontariff barriers to industrial countries imports this paper examines the extent of non tariff barriers to sixteen industrial countries visible imports using three alternative measures it shows that governmental commodity specific border measures affect over 27 of all imports and over 34 of imports from developing countries it also shows that during the period 1981 83 ntbs became significantly more extensive detailed statistics reveal considerable variations in ntb coverage by commodity type of barrier importer and exporter the data on which these conclusions are based are compiled from official information at the finest level of disaggregation they are described in the paper

tariff equivalent of technical barriers to trade with imperfect substitution and trade costs the price wedge method yields a tariff equivalent estimate of technical barriers to trade tbt an extension of this method accounts for imperfect substitution between domestic and imported goods and incorporates recent findings on trade costs we explore the sensitivity of this revamped tbt estimate to its key determinants substitution elasticity preference for home good and trade cost we use the augmented approach to investigate the recent japan u s apple trade dispute and find that removing the japanese tbt would yield limited export gains to the united states we then draw policy implications of our findings

paying the price final goods protection in oecd countries this paper presents new measures of final goods trade protection in eight developed countries the analysis exploits detailed comprehensive and careful price comparisons to derive estimates that it is argued reliably capture all kinds of barriers the results show extensive protection japan s average tariff equivalent is 57 those of the european countries range from 48 to 55 and that of the united states is lowest at 12 an applied general equilibrium analysis of this protection is conducted the results include the following japan s barriers impose large costs on itself japanese and u s barriers greatly burden poorer countries the united states would benefit significantly from multilateral but not unilateral opening

tariff equivalent and forgone trade effects of prohibitive technical barriers to trade we derive a method to econometrically estimate the tariff equivalent and forgone trade effects of a prohibitive technical barrier to trade tbt based on wales and woodland s kuhn tucker approach to corner solutions in consumer choice the method overcomes the lack of observed data on bilateral trade flows and accounts for differentiated goods by place of origin we apply the derived random utility model to international trade in apples to identify the tariff equivalent of prohibitive phytosanitary barriers imposed by australia on potential imports of new zealand apples we estimate the forgone apple trade between the two countries the implied trade injury imposed by australia on new zealand and the welfare loss to australia the removal of the australian policy would induce net welfare gains around us 50 million annually for australia copyright 2009 oxford university press

the impact of regulations on agricultural trade evidence from the sps and tbt agreements according to world trade organization rules countries may adopt regulations under the agreements on sanitary and phyto sanitary sps and technical barriers to trade tbt we analyze the structure of these measures in agricultural trade the inventory approach suggests that european countries have among the lowest coverage ratios of all oecd countries using a gravity equation we also estimate their stringency our results suggest that they significantly reduce developing countries exports to oecd countries but do not affect trade between oecd members furthermore european imports are more negatively influenced by sps and tbts than imports of other oecd countries

printing and protestants an empirical test of the role of printing in the reformation the causes of the protestant reformation have long been debated this paper seeks to revive and econometrically test the theory that the spread of the reformation is linked to the spread of the printing press i test this theory by analyzing data on the spread of the press and the reformation at the city level an econometric analysis that instruments for omitted variable bias with a city s distance from mainz the birthplace of printing suggests that cities with at least one printing press by 1500 were at minimum 29 percentage points more likely to be protestant by 1600

modeling the interplay between sanitary and phytosanitary measures and tariff rate quotas under partial trade liberalization non tariff measures particularly sanitary and phytosanitary measures and tariff rate quotas are two critical policy barriers that impede agricultural trade unlike simple tariffs both measures contain non linear effects and binding conditions that make their treatment in modeling trade liberalization challenging in addition the coexistence of these measures carries important interactive effects that restrict trade this study investigates these joint effects by developing a conceptual framework that considers different partial liberalization scenarios our framework points to three cases that may arise a binding tariff rate quota non prohibitive sanitary and phytosanitary measure b non binding tariff rate quota non prohibitive sanitary and phytosanitary measure and c non binding tariff rate quota prohibitive sanitary and phytosanitary measure we then use a computable general equilibrium model to examine partial trade liberalization scenarios for these cases using the ongoing transatlantic trade and investment partnership negotiations as our motivation our simulations provide a more nuanced analysis of complex trade liberalization and demonstrate the importance of modeling the interplay between these different types of barriers

the protestant fiscal ethic religious confession and euro skepticism in germany during the european sovereign debt crisis most countries that ran into fiscal trouble had catholic majorities whereas countries with protestant majorities were able to avoid fiscal problems we find that christian conservative members of the german parliament from constituencies with higher shares of protestants were more likely to vote against a third bailout for greece survey data show that views on the euro differ between german protestants and non protestants at the individual level too among protestants concerns about the euro have compared to non protestants increased during the crisis we show that this increase in concern is linked to a reduction of protestants subjective well being we use the timing of survey interviews and news events in 2011 to account for the endogeneity of euro concerns emphasis on moral hazard concerns in protestant theology may thus still shape economic preferences jel d72 e00 i31 z12

public goods institutions human capital and growth evidence from german history what are the origins and consequences of the state as a provider of public goods we study public goods provision established through new laws in german cities during the 1500s cities that adopted the laws subsequently began to differentially produce and attract human capital and to grow faster legal change occurred where ideological competition introduced by the protestant reformation interacted with local politics we study plagues that shifted local politics in a narrow period as sources of exogenous variation in public goods institutions and find support for a causal interpretation of the relationship between legal change human capital and growth

the combination of gravity and welfare approaches for evaluating nontariff measures this article explores the link between gravity and welfare frameworks for measuring the impact of nontariff measures first an analytical approach suggests how to combine a gravity equation with a partial equilibrium model to determine the welfare impact of nontariff measures second an empirical application focuses on the effects of a standard that caps antibiotic residues in crustaceans in the united states the european union canada and japan while the econometric estimation of the gravity equation reports a negative impact on imports welfare evaluations show that in most cases a stricter standard leads to an increase in both domestic and international welfare

food safety regulation and its implication on chinese vegetable exports growing concerns with the application of highly toxic pesticides and the growing world demands for food direct our attentions to the food safety as well as to the global arrangement of food production in china expansion of its vegetable exports brought the attention of policy planners to the international food safety regulations this paper reported the findings from the investigation about a relationship between trades of food and food safety by focusing on the relationship between chinese vegetable exports and the maximum residue limits of pesticides mrls regulation set by the importing countries and exporting country the revealed trade s behavior showed that impacts of mrls should be seen through two types of information one was the extent of coverage of regulation measured by the number of pesticides placed under the control and the other was the regulated residue levels probably because the achieved vegetable production growth was supported by the extensive use of many kinds of pesticides the expanding of the number of regulated pesticides in importing markets was more likely to act as a barrier to china s vegetable exports compared to the effect of stringency increase of mrls level importing countries gdp reflecting the market potential showed significantly positive effects on chinese vegetable exports while the effects of vegetable production and tariff rate on exports were weakened after years of improvement of productivity and worldwide policy environment our results verified the export promoting effect of stringent regulations in exporting country on its trade these findings strongly suggested that chinese authorities need to move fast to catch up to the growing concerns of international importers both from relevant policy planning and implementing to capture economic growth in the medium long term

impacts of trade and macroeconomic linkages on canadian agriculture implications of trade and macroeconomic policies on the performance of the canadian agricultural sector were analyzed using a structural econometric model results indicated that had canada been more integrated with the world economy its volume of trade would have been 3 higher than its actual level and much greater price incentives for agriculture would have occurred

in search of the holy grail policy convergence experimentation and economic performance we consider a model of policy choice in which appropriate policies depend on a country s own circumstances but the presence of a successful leader generates an informational externality and results in too little policy experimentation corrupt governments are reined in while honest governments are disciplined inefficiently our model yields distinct predictions about the patterns of policy imitation corruption and economic performance as a function of a country s location vis aa vis successful leaders in particular it predicts a u shaped pattern in economic performance as we move away from the leader in the relevant space of characteristics close neighbors should do very well distant countries moderately well on average with considerable variance and intermediate countries worst of all an empirical test with the experience of post socialist countries provides supportive results

the economic effects of the protestant reformation testing the weber hypothesis in the german lands following max weber many theories have hypothesized that protestantism should have favored economic development with its religious heterogeneity the holy roman empire presents an ideal testing ground for this hypothesis using population figures of 272 cities in the years 1300 1900 i find no effects of protestantism on economic growth the finding is precisely estimated robust to the inclusion of various controls and does not depend on data selection or small sample size denominational differences in fertility behavior and literacy are unlikely to be major confounding factors protestantism has no effect when interacted with other likely determinants of economic development instrumental variables estimates considering the potential endogeneity of religious choice are similar to the ols results

protection for sale with imperfect rent capturing we extend the protection for sale framework to non tari barriers introducing partial rent capturing leads to a testable specification that bridges the gap between the grossman and helpman 1994 model and its empirical implementation where coverage ratios have been used to measure protection the econometric analysis supports our augmented specification and leads to more realistic estimates for the structural parameters of the model jel classification f13

why did the netherlands develop so early the legacy of the brethren of the common life this research establishes a link between the brethren of the common life bcl a religious community founded by geert groote in deventer in the late fourteenth century and the early economic development of the netherlands the bcl stimulated human capital accumulation the historical analyses show that the bcl contributed to the high rates of literacy to the high level of book production and to city growth in the netherlands these findings are supported by a set of ols regressions and further corroborated by 2sls estimates that use distance from deventer as an instrument for the presence of the bcl

which countries have state religions among 188 countries 72 had no state religion in 2000 1970 and 1900 58 had a state religion throughout and 58 had 1 or 2 transitions we use a hotelling spatial competition model to analyze the likelihood that the religion market would be monopolized similar forces influence a government s decision to establish a state religion consistent with the model the probability of state religion in 1970 and 2000 is increasing with the adherence rate to the main religion has a nonlinear relation with population and has little relation with per capita gdp the probability of state religion decreases sharply under communism but lagged communism has only a weak effect with costly adjustment for institutions the probability of state religion in 1970 or 2000 depends substantially on the status in 1900 this persistence is much stronger for countries with no major regime change than for countries with such a change

three bubbles and a panic an explanatory review of recent food commodity price events abstract this paper is a summary of the behaviour of food commodity prices in 2007 2008 and a review of the causes of the price increases extracted from a report to the chief scientific advisor to her majesty s government thirtle c piesse j 2008 an explanatory review of the world food commodity price events of 2007 2008 a report to the chief scientific advisor department for innovation universities and skills london the historical background shows that the price spike was much less severe than in the 1970s the conventional wisdom that prices of the main food commodities were falling prior to 2006 is questioned most ceased falling and were quite stable from the 1980s the paper separates the causes of the spike from the underlying changes driving the long run trends the literature on the causes of the spike is critically reviewed and summarised there is a reasonably broad consensus on most of the causes but much less on the impact of the depreciation of the us dollar there are also concluding speculations on the future

agricultural trade and the gatt wto does membership make a difference recent empirical studies have estimated the trade flow effect of membership in the world trade organization wto and its predecessor the general agreement on tariffs and trade gatt one important although largely untested conclusion from this literature is that the gatt wto works well if we ignore trade in agriculture one of the institutions seemingly apparent failures this article investigates this conclusion using a large panel of agricultural and non agricultural trade flows the results are impressive the multilateral institution has delivered significant positive effects on members agricultural trade despite its sensitive nature and the reluctance of members to undertake serious reform these findings are robust to various slices of the data and recent advances in the specification and estimation of the gravity equation to account for sample selection issues and the extensive margin of trade copyright 2012 oxford university press

saving two in a billion quantifying the trade effect of european food safety standards on african exports abstract a growing concern over health risks associated with food products has prompted close examination of sanitary and phytosanitary standards in industrialized countries this paper quantifies the impact of a new harmonized aflatoxin standard set by the eu on food exports from africa we employ a gravity model to estimate the impact of changes in differing levels of protection based on the eu standard in contrast to those suggested by international standards the analysis is based on trade and regulatory survey data for 15 european countries and nine african countries between 1989 and 1998 our results suggest that the implementation of the new aflatoxin standard in the eu will have a negative impact on african exports of cereals dried fruits and nuts to europe the new eu standard which would reduce health risk by approximately 1 4 deaths per billion a year will decrease these african exports by 64 or us 670 million in contrast to regulation set through an international standard

protectionism indices for non tariff measures an application to maximum residue levels abstract we propose aggregation indices of non tariff measures ntms to quantify their protectionism relative to international standards of stringency we apply the indices to national maximum residue limit mrl regulations on pesticides and veterinary drugs affecting agricultural and food trade and using a science based criteria embodied in codex alimentarius international standards the approach links two streams of the ntm literature one concerned with the aggregation of various ntms into operational indices for econometric and modeling purposes and the other attempting to evaluate the protectionism of ntms the data used in the application come from a large international dataset on veterinary and pesticide mrls and codex mrl standards for a large set of countries

maginot line of european farm policies as the european community has increased it s level of self sufficiency in agriculture it has moved from being an importer of many agricultural commodities to being an exporter as a consequence countries that were formerly exporters to the community now find themselves competing in third markets with subsidised exports from the community they may well conclude as have numerous west european scholars that the common agricultural policy cap no longer serves the interests of community agriculture or its political relations with the rest of the world it is expensive and cumbersome to operate protection is too high and unbalanced commodity expenditures are poorly allocated and their redistributive effects aggravate inequalities in the final analysis rather than being a unifying institution within the community the cap in its present form threatens the political equilibrium of the community and endangers the international trading system