community development with endogenous land use controls abstract when competitive landowners developers control incorporation and zoning decisions efficient patterns of development emerge when by contrast early arrivals control policy they may impose zoning restrictions that force later entrants to pay via the property tax a disproportionate share of the cost of providing public services if new arrivals are sufficiently poor they may choose to reside outside the community while higher quality land within the community remains unoccupied this inefficient and exclusionary outcome can be an equilibrium if boundaries once drawn are irreversible the ex ante introduction of a seemingly natural compensation scheme may not remedy the problem

the role of amenities in a general equilibrium model of regional migration and growth economists have been steadily refining the theoretical framework developed by sherwin rosen 25 to determine the implicit prices of amenities rosen s model was a partial equilibrium model which focused on the behavior of households as consumers jennifer roback 23 24 substantially expanded rosen s model by explicitly including the behavior of firms in a more general framework which she used to measure the value of amenities blomquist berger and hoehn 3 extended the roback model by incorporating intraregional as well as interregional differences in amenities however their basic theoretical framework is the same as that proposed by roback other works in this literature which have been based on roback s model are primarily empirical in nature for example see beeson and eberts 2 in a recent paper voith 31 modifies roback s model by incorporating local as well as regional amenities and by recognizing that the effect of an amenity on wages and rents may differ depending upon the nature 6f the community i e whether the community is residential commercial or mixed use voith also presents empirical results with mixed success

redevelopment and the urban land price gradient abstract this paper presents the first careful test of an equilibrium model of urban redevelopment in addition it demonstrates a new methodology for recovering vacant urban land prices in areas that have already been developed using data on single family detached homes sold in vancouver b c we estimate the price of vacant land based on properties that were sold and redeveloped the price of developed land is also estimated based on properties that were sold and not redeveloped various tests overwhelmingly support the hypothesis that housing is redeveloped when the price of vacant land exceeds the price of land in its current use this result provides support for various theoretical models of urban spatial growth and indicates that one can recover vacant urban land prices by examining redeveloped properties

socialist cities without land markets abstract how does the spatial dynamics of the socialist city compare with that of the market city what happens when all investment decisions are made administratively in the absence of land markets russian development is the longest socialist experiment on record its outcome is of paramount interest to urban economists this paper reports the first analysis of the structure of russian cities after 70 years of soviet development the main finding is a perversely positive population density gradient the soviet city also has a disproportionate share of industrial land often in prime locations free property trading started in russia in 1992 the emerging negative price gradient contrasts totally with the positive population gradient that is the legacy of administrative land allocation these two conflicting gradients highlight the land misallocation and inefficiency of the socialist city

commercial land use regulation and local government finance land use regulation in american cities is pervasive taken together these rules probably represent the most significant market intervention undertaken by state and local governments land use regulation includes a wide variety of rules governing the physical location of economic activities within jurisdictions regulations governing the design height or capital intensity of commercial and industrial property rules regarding the minimum lot sizes for residential parcels the number of bedrooms in new dwellings or other restrictions on residential density and rules delineating developer responsibilities for infrastructure provided in newly subdivided areas by international standards regulations in the united states are adopted by rather small units of government i e by towns rather than regional authorities whose objectives are typically confined to narrowly defined geographical portions of metropolitan areas the small scale at which regulations are promulgated and the existence of substitutable sites within metropolitan areas for residential commercial and industrial activity suggest that recognition of competition across jurisdictions is crucial to understanding the impact of land use rules as they affect the quality of life or the fiscal health of the residents of any jurisdiction many economic models ignore these competitive forces concentrating instead upon the case of the regulatory monopolist in consequence there is considerable theoretical uncertainty about the impact of locally adopted regulations upon the utilities of local citizens or their economic wealth a selective review is provided by j m pogodzinski and tim sass 1989 land use regulations in urban areas are motivated by two conceptually distinct concerns the control of externalities and the pursuit of fiscal objectives these mixed objectives make it more difficult to understand the effects of regulation especially since externality arguments are notoriously difficult to confirm in empirical analyses fiscal arguments on the other hand are more easily tested in this paper we investigate a new but increasingly popular form of land use control limitations on the growth of commercial property in one instance we provide bounds on the fiscal implications of controls on commercial property this in turn bounds the magnitude of the implied efficiency gains when the land use policy is viewed as a rational choice by citizens

financial market efficiency the decomposition of anticipated versus unanticipated money growth and further tests of the relation between money and real output note probably the most controversial empirical findings in macroeconomics in the last decade stem from robert barro s investigations into the relative effects of unanticipated versus anticipated money growth on unemployment and real output these studies generally proceed by decomposing observed money growth into what is defined to be its anticipated and unanticipated components and then test the restriction that only the unanticipated money measure has important effects for unemployment and real output in black box reduced form real side equations that include determinants of the natural rates of unemployment and real output as additional explanatory variables l the results of these tests for the annual postwar u s data generally cannot reject the hypothesis that only unanticipated money growth is important for the determination of aggregate real activity 2 anticipated money growth is found to be neutral for unemployment and real output these results are important because they give empirical support to the assertion that the apparent nonneutrality of observed money growth does not provide any firm basis for the efficacy of a systematic countercyclical monetary policy it should be clear that a crucial problem in testing for the neutrality nonneutrality of anticipated unanticipated money growth lies in developing an appropriate decomposition of observed money growth into its anticipated and unanticipated parts small 13 mishkin 8 and weintraub 14 among others have

housing choice hindrances and urban spatial structure evidence from matched location and location preference data in chinese cities abstract in a monocentric city with a well functioning residential market pareto efficient spatial equilibrium entails the sorting of residents according to their bid rent gradient in descending order away from city center violation of this sorting condition creates opportunities for pareto improving trading of locations and can be sustained only if the market is hindered we propose a simple ordered location choice model using matched location and location preference data of individual households to examine violations of the pareto efficient spatial sorting condition in so doing we are able to identify population groups facing housing choice hindrances we find in a sample of chinese cities undergoing housing market liberalization that poor marketability of the previously state provided homes inadequate provision of housing finance and spatial mismatch between job market and housing market opportunities contribute to a pareto inefficient spatial structure

a non nested test of the new classical neutrality proposition for canada this paper uses a non nested testing technique to test the neutrality proposition of the new classical economics a new classical model and an alternative model are estimated and tested against each other the test results indicate that the alternative model rejects the new classical model and that the neutrality proposition cannot be supported empirically

site density restrictions measurement and empirical analysis abstract restrictions on the density at which development can occur are a central tool of land use regulation yet they are understudied in the empirical literature in this paper we present a methodology to identify how much restrictions on the ratio of building space to lot area constrain developers our approach generates a measure of the distortion from the private optimum caused by restrictions as a function of land prices and the maximum allowed ratio of floor space to lot area we use this methodology to examine how the set of incentives facing different levels of local government in shanghai china affects density constraints on redevelopment sites in the city s emerging real estate market

measuring the price impact of municipal incorporation on homeowner associations this paper investigates the impact of municipal formation and subsequent change in land use restrictions on existing deed restricted subdivisions drss using a unique case in the suburbs of saint louis county the city of wildwood incorporated in 1995 even though a majority of houses were already in a homeowner association data was collected on single family housing sales from 1990 through 2000 and on characteristics of 830 drss using a hedonic model the surrounding 10 municipalities and unincorporated area results show a decline in drs premiums after incorporation however the decline seems to have been concentrated in lots larger than 1 acre

the market effects of zoning undeveloped land does zoning follow the market through restricting the uses of land zoning gives local governments the power to modify the dictates of unconstrained land markets many believe however that the regulations tend to coincide with or anticipate the market solution rather than modify it the validity of this assertion is an empirical question and has not yet been adequately addressed the purpose of this paper is to develop and apply an empirical test of the null hypothesis that zoning follows the market the null hypothesis can be rejected only if land uses under zoning differ from what they would be without zoning the first task in deriving the test is to differentiate between constrained and unconstrained land market allocations it is shown that parameter estimates for hedonic price functions when markets are zoned cannot be interpreted to imply that the regulations constrain market prices it is also shown that sample selection bias is a likely source of specification error in estimating hedonic price functions for zoned land markets since the sample selection of parcels to zone designations is unlikely to be random the selection process must be accounted for in ordinary least squares ols estimation of zone constrained hedonic price functions fortunately the correction for the specification error also provides a test for the market effects of zoning a bid price interpretation of hedonic price functions for land is presented in section ii the sample selection bias issues are also discussed in that section and a formal test for the market effects of zoning is introduced

anticipated monetary policy and real output evidence from latin american countries this paper is an empirical investigation of the effects of anticipated and unanticipated monetary policies on real output for 13 ldcs in latin and central america the well know mishkin econometric procedure is applied to the annual imf date for the decomposition of actual money growth into anticipated and unanticipated components and the evidence of significant relation between anticipated money supply and real output for each country is reported the results derived in this paper thus provide additional empirical support for the validity of the non classical rational expectations macro models of fisher and phelps and taylor

the start up gap and jobs the present paper uses quarterly data from the social security registry covering the full population of belgian firms to analyze how the secular decline in the firm entry rate affects aggregate employment to this end we disentangle the entry margin into two channels the overall employment of new firms the start up employment and the share of start up employment by sector the sectoral composition of start ups we find that the decline in start up employment slowed down the growth rate of aggregate employment by 26 over the 2009q2 2017q1 period by shifting the age distribution of firms toward older firms the sectoral composition of start ups accelerated the decline in the manufacturing sector and prevented the distribution sector from a potential decline while leaving the aggregate employment unchanged

assessing the relative merits of development charges and transferable development rights in an uncertain world traditionally regulatory instruments have been used to achieve planning objectives however emerging market based policy instruments such as transferable development rights a quantity based app

patterns of growth in chinese cities implications of the land lease abstract a special feature of china s housing market is land use rights in the form of land leasehold contracts granted by the government we consider an equilibrium model in which a representative developer may choose to redevelop existing centrally located housing or to develop new housing at the periphery of the city we show that as the city grows the land leasehold system results in the city center being developed less intensely and more land being used on the outskirts of the city when compared to a fee simple environment thus cities in china are likely to be relatively more spread out with city centers relatively older than would be the case with fee simple ownership our model suggests that excess residential land use is about 6 percent in addition compared with the ownership case housing supply will grow more quickly in the near future but more slowly later on during the transition of the chinese economy parallel to the supply growth pattern equilibrium price grows relative slowly in the near future but more quickly later on while we focus on residential uses we believe our model can be applied to other land uses

employee spinoffs and other entrants stylized facts from brazil using a comprehensive linked employer employee database from brazil for the period 1995 2001 we are able for the first time to compare firms founded as employee spinoffs to new firms without parents and to diversification ventures of existing firms entering a new industry employee spinoffs are defined either as the director manager having moved from a parent in the same industry or as one quarter of the employees having shifted from a common parent depending on definition employee spinoffs account for between one sixth and one third of the new firms in brazil s private sector during this period regardless of definition size at entry is larger for employee spinoffs than for new firms without parents but smaller than for diversification ventures of existing firms similarly exit rates for employee spinoffs are less than for new firms without parents and comparable to those for diversification ventures of existing firms these results suggest that we can think of some part of a firm s productivity draw in the jovanovic 1982 model as embodied in the firm s employees and portable by them to a new firm

large lot zoning and subdivision costs a test abstract this paper tests two hypotheses 1 that large lot zoning is a binding constraint on the residential land market and 2 that subdivision costs are inversely related to lot size the paper shows that in general the two hypotheses are not mutually exclusive but that they can be distinguished in the case of a test conducted across tracts of unsubdivided vacant land a hedonic price model for vacant land is developed and then estimated using disaggregate data from a new york city suburb

firm spin offs in denmark 1981 2000 patterns of entry and exit abstract this paper adds large sample evidence on the extent to which the likelihood of business failure or success is related to relationships between parent firms and their off spring for this purpose we make use of an exhaustive matched employer employee data set covering the entire danish private sector in years 1981 to 2000 to study firm entry and exit special focus is on spin offs a particular group of small entrants which are founded by groups of persons originating from the same former workplace we estimate a multinomial logit model in order to examine which characteristics of the founders and the parent firms increase the probability of spinning off next we carry out a duration analysis of the subsequent transitions of the spin offs and compare their exit risks with those of other entrant firms which have less strong parent progeny relationships in terms of worker flows

comparative analysis of firm demographics and survival evidence from micro level sources in oecd countries in this paper we present cross country evidence on firm size distribution firm demographic and post entry performance for 10 oecd countries we use harmonized firm level data drawn from business registers or social security records these data enable international comparisons and the identification of idiosyncratic country effects while average firm size differs across countries due to both sectoral specialization and within sector characteristics we find similar degrees of firm churning across countries in most of them about 20 of firms enter and exit most markets every year and about 20 40 of entering firms fail within the first 2 years of life however post entry growth of successful entrants is much higher in the usa than in europe which may be indicative of barriers to firm growth as opposed to barriers to entry

urban spatial development with durable but replaceable capital the theory of urban spatial development until recently has been primarily a static theory of economic equilibrium the models of alonso l mills 6 and muth 7 determine a complete spatial equilibrium between the supply and demand for urban land the study of growth or change in such models therefore has been limited exclusively to comparative statics wheaton 8 it should be clear that the central and in many respects unrealistic assumption of such models is that housing capital is neither physically nor economically durable without durability there is no opportunity cost to old capital no barrier to change and no history to an urban area within such a framework a common set of conclusions emerges regarding urban spatial structure residential density and the price per unit of land decline monotonically from the location of employment a greater population results in higher density at all locations while increases in income or decreases in the cost of travel create a more steeply sloped density and price gradient in the last few years there has been a growing awareness that the equilibrium portrayed by such models does not correctly reflect the process of urban development theoretical papers by anas 2 31 and brueckner 4 and an empirical model by harrison and kain 5 develop an alternative theory of urban spatial development in which the process of growth is explicitly modeled and in which capital is completely durable in their models the spatial development of cities occurs incrementally over time in successive rings from the center of employment outwards the development of each ring is done with myopic foresight and is therefore determined exclusively by market conditions at the time of development once built

factors affecting commercial land values an empirical study of milwaukee wisconsint this paper uses an implicit market approach to model the highest and best use concept when applied to single family residential development formulated from the landowner s perspective this persistence forecasting model relies on the theory that the

stock market dispersion and unemployment abstract the sectoral shifts hypothesis advanced by lilien 1982 and davis 1987 suggests that unemployment is in part the result of resources being reallocated from declining to expanding sectors of the economy using u s data from 1931 to 1987 we test this hypothesis by constructing an index measuring the dispersion among stock prices from different industries we find that lagged values of this index significantly affect unemployment we show that the stock market dispersion index is less contaminated by aggregate demand influences than lilien s employment dispersion index which makes our test less vulnerable to the abraham and katz 1986 critique

bank regulation and monetary policy the depository institutions deregulation and monetary control act 1980 and the garn st germain depository institutions act 1982 are the two most significant pieces of bank legislation since the 193os their significance stems from the fact that they have sought to roll back a number of the regulations and restrictions imposed on bank activity and competition in the 1933 80 period among the important provisions of these acts are a gradual elimination of regulation q ceilings on time and savings deposits by march 1986 the amelioration of state imposed usury ceilings on loans the nationwide provision of interest bearing transaction type accounts negotiable order of withdrawal now and super now accounts permission for thritts to expand into bank like products such as commercial and industrial loans consumer loans and credit cards and the development of new types of savings accounts such as mmdas l in addition to legislative deregulation we have also witnessed homemade deregulation as banks have sought to exploit often with great success loopholes in the bank holding

politics institutions and local land use regulation summary this article investigates the factors that account for second generation land use restrictions that result from comprehensive planning processes after a review of the evolution of growth management policy in the us variation among florida counties in the adoption of development impact fees and regulatory complexity is examined political system institutions were found to be related to growth management policies as predicted by distributive theories of urban politics in particular elected mayor commission government was linked to growth management these results indicate that second generation land use regulation may be driven as much by the political incentives of local actors as the preferences of the median voter

testing for strategic interaction among local governments the case of growth controls this paper helps to fill a gap in the public economics literature by providing empirical evidence on strategic interaction among local governments using the methodology of case et al journal of public economics 52 285 307 1993 the paper focuses on the adoption of growth control measures by cities in california and looks for evidence of policy interdependence in these choices the data are drawn from an elaborate survey of growth control practices in california cities conducted by glickfeld and levine regional growth local reaction lincoln institute of land policy cambridge ma 1992 the survey results are used to compute an index of the stringency of growth controls in each city which serves as the dependent variable for the study

the survival and growth of new establishments in sweden 1987 1995 the aim of the study is to examine the survival of new establishments and to identify factors affecting their survival probability and their employment growth this study uses a unique data set on all new establishments that were created in sweden 1987 and 1988 with the exception of the construction industry the results show among others that i new establishments face a high risk of closing down ii the probability of establishment survival increases with the age and size of the establishment iii variables that are assumed to measure access to resources being a part of a multi unit firm and being new due to merger or dispersal have a positive effect on survival iv the number of employees at the start up year has a negative effect on the employment growth and v demographic and educational factors are important in explaining survival and growth

longitudinal firm level data problems and solutions empirical measures of firm and employment dynamics based on administrative datasets are biased due to missing links in the longitudinal observation of firms this paper presents a systematic overview of the problems and evaluates two prevailing solutions we quantify the biases in a set of widely used empirical measures and show which estimates are most sensitive to missing linkages the biases are found to be especially large in the size distribution of entrants and exits in firm level growth estimates for medium and large firms and in job reallocation measures we show that an employee flow linkage method is more effective in reducing bias than a traditional link method often used by statistical agencies a consistent approach is developed for imputing firm level growth measures of linked firms the analysis is carried out using a longitudinal dataset for belgium and discussed from an international perspective

the economic costs and transport benefits of seoul s industrial land use controls this study focuses on both the favourable and adverse consequences of seoul s industrial development controls namely the transport benefits and the economic costs the study develops a method to estimate the effects of the controls by combining three different models a 2sls regression model a random utility based location choice model and a transport model the most important findings are the aggregate annual economic costs and transport benefits of the controls a 45 9 billion output and 336 000 job losses versus 4 8 billion in transport cost savings these empirical findings indicate that the citizens of the seoul metropolitan region would be better off economically with more job opportunities in the absence of the industrial development controls and would pay relatively minor transport costs for these benefits

the determinants of nonresidential urban land values abstract this paper presents the results of an empirical study of nonresidential urban land values in the dallas metropolitan area the data base consists of 467 vacant land transactions from 1978 to 1982 by concentrating on sales prices of vacant land rather than improved property problems normally encountered from use of appraised values or improved properties are eliminated separate models are developed for industrial commercial and office land the study focuses on the tendency toward agglomeration for consumers of each land use as measured by the impact on land values in the central business district suburban nodes and other employment concentrations the results provide insight into a number of influences on urban land value and offer evidence that office land derives greater benefit from agglomeration than does commercial or industrial land

unexpected monetary disturbances during the gold standard era abstract this empirical paper uses the barro methodology of estimating unexpected monetary shocks to determine the effect these shocks had on real output in the u s during the gold standard era between 1880 and 1913 it also investigates whether changes in a measure of financial intermediation had real effects the results indicate that neither expected nor unexpected money shocks affected output changes in financial intermediation however were significantly correlated with output this result lends support to theories which stress the endogeneity of broad measures of the money supply

elements of an economic justification for municipal zoning abstract the possibility that externalities will produce a nonconvexity in the social production set limits the application of both the coase and pigou solutions for achieving an optimal allocation of land resources conditions on relative land prices are derived which indicate that external effects are strong enough to introduce a nonconvexity into the production set these conditions were not fulfilled in a sample of single family and multifamily dwellings in foster city california this does not preclude the possibility that they are fulfilled in cases of more severe external effects

the economic theory of zoning a critical review municipal zoning regulations are the most important way in which local governments affect housing markets numerous studies have been undertaken to analyze the impact of zoning on housing and land prices on population density and on welfare however despite the volume of previous research there is little agreement on the effects of zoning or how to properly analyze those effects several papers have reviewed the empirical literature on zoning this review focuses on the theory of zoning specifically on how zoning is modeled especially whether zoning is embedded in an urban model and the implications derived from these models for the impact of zoning on welfare and housing prices we divide the effects of zoning on economic agents into six broad categories supply side effects demand side effects tiebout effects externality effects endogenous zoning and rent seeking behavior supply side effects concern how zoning affects the suppliers of housing services and the land market demand side effects concern how zoning affects consumers choice of the optimal consumption bundle especially the choice of housing characteristics tiebout effects result from consumer mo

does anticipated monetary policy matter an econometric investigation a heated debate has arisen over the policy ineffectiveness proposition associate with the work of lucas sargent and wallace it postulates that anticipated aggregate demand policy will have no effect on business cycle fluctuations so that one deterministic feedback policy rule is as good as any other from the point of view of stabilizing the economy this paper develops a methodology for empirically analyzing rational expectations models displaying this neutrality result and then applies it to the important question of whether anticipated monetary policy matters to the business cycle

land use regulation and the intensive margin of housing supply abstract this paper proposes a method for estimating the extent to which density regulation causes the actual housing supply per land unit to deviate from the unconstrained amount i e the impact of density regulation on the intensive margin of housing supply to overcome the challenges that both the housing supply per land unit which is a combination of quantity and quality measures and its unconstrained amount are unobserved to the researchers we extend the framework of epple gordon and sieg 2010 by explicitly allowing substitution between the quantity and quality inputs in the housing production function and by imposing a regulatory upper limit on the use of the quantity input we show theoretically that the land share of the housing value can be used as a proxy for the stringency of the density regulation we apply this method in our investigation of the stringency of floor to area ratio far regulation in urban china at the land parcel level and find that the regulation imposes a significant binding constraint on the housing supply per land unit we then explore the spatial and temporal variations of far regulation stringency we also find that the far regulation stringency intensified the housing price appreciation that occurred during the economic stimulus period after 2008

the survival of new plants start up conditions and post entry evolution abstract this paper examines the longevity of entrants we find size to be an important determinant of the chances of survival this being particularly relevant to de novo entrants as compared with entry by established firms current size is also found to be a better predictor of failure than initial size moreover our findings indicate that after controlling for size differences past growth matters for survival suggesting a partial adjustment process for firm size in the post entry period finally new plants are more likely to live longer if they enter growing industries or industries with little entry activity

measuring the stringency of land use regulation the case of china s building height limits this paper develops a new approach for measuring the stringency of a major form of land use regulation building height restrictions and applies it to an extraordinary data set of land lease transactions from china our theory shows that the elasticity of land price with respect to the floor area ratio far a building height indicator is a measure of the regulation s stringency the extent to which far is kept below the free market level using a national sample estimation allowing this elasticity to be city specific shows variation in the stringency of far regulation across chinese cities single city estimation for beijing shows that stringency varies with site characteristics

replication in empirical economics the journal of money credit and banking project this paper examines the role of replication in empirical economic research it presents the findings of a two year study that collected programs and data from authors and attempted to replicate their published results the research provides new and important information about the extent and causes of failures to replicate published results in economics the findings suggest that inadvertent errors in published empirical articles are a commonplace rather than a rare occurence copyright 1986 by american economic association

the evolution of the housing market and its socioeconomic impacts in the post reform people s republic of china a survey of the literature the development of the housing market in the people s republic of china is not only a major component of chinese economic growth but also has wide ranging influential impacts on chinese society a burgeoning number of papers have examined the housing market in the postreform people s republic of china from various perspectives this paper aims to provide a thorough survey of the key literature in the field and then supply a complete picture of the dynamics of the housing market in the people s republic of china to assess the functional efficiency of this nascent market we pay particular attention to the literature that is related to the academic debate over the chinese housing bubble issue the structure and operation of the housing market is another major concern in this paper finally we summarize the key insights of the literature that we surveyed note research gaps in the literature and discuss further research directions in this field

anticipated money inflation uncertainity and real economic activity this paper critically examines a number of maintained hypotheses that are necessarily being tested along with the basic notion derived from the rational expectations re formulation of lucas 1972 19 73 that only unanticipated money matters the trend stationary representation of secular real output of lucas and others is replaced by a difference stationary representation found by nelson and plosser 1980 to be consistent with u s historical data the impact of inflation uncertainty on real activity is considered attention is paid to possible mis measurement of agents ex ante anticipated money growth it is found that three alternative measures of anticipated money growth produce a stable impact on growth of output and employment contemporaneous and lagged values of unanticipated money growth have no significant additional explanatory power in the presence of any one of the three measures of anticipated money growth beyond this it is impossible to reject the hypothesis that the initial positive real impact of anticipated money is not temporary inflation uncertainty is found to act as a significant depressant of real economic activity in the presence of all tested combinations of anticipated and unanticipated money growth this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item