the dynamic effects of government spending policies in a two sector endogenous growth model this paper investigates the impact of government spending policies in a two sector model of endogenous growth endogenous growth arises because all factors of production physical and human capital are reproducible both temporary and permanent government spending shocks are examined the model implies that a permanent lump sum financed increase in government spending raises the long run growth rate this occurs because the negative wealth effects of a spending increase will increase labor supply on the other hand an income tax or wage tax financed rise in government spending reduces the growth rate the output effects of a temporary increase in government spending may be greater or less than a permanent increase in spending copyright 1995 by ohio state university press

us monetary policy and sectoral commodity prices abstract using a structural var svar model we examine the effects of the monetary policy of the united states on sectoral commodity prices including the non fuel commodity prices food prices beverage prices prices of agricultural raw materials prices of metals and prices of fuel energy commodities and macroeconomic activity the empirical evidence suggests that a u s monetary contraction leads to an immediate rise in the broad commodity price index which possibly reflects an aggregation bias greater expected inflation and speculation high production costs or some overshooting due to overreactions then the response erodes after six quarters as the positive interest rate shock vanishes and higher interest rates and liquidity drainage take traction despite this the aggregate price response masks the existence of significant heterogeneity in the price responses of the different types of commodity sectors more specifically a positive interest rate shock leads to i an initial pop in the price returns of the non fuel commodities which later reverses path and becomes negative as in the case of the prices of agricultural raw materials ii a positive and persistent rise in the volatile food prices iii a fall in the beverage prices and iv a persistent reduction in the prices of metals and the prices of energy prices our results also remain globally intact with respect to alternative specifications and identification schemes as well as to unconventional monetary policy effects similar results are also found when commodity futures prices are used we conclude that policymakers should recognize the source of sector inflation before embarking on contractionary monetary policy the design of core inflation targeting is also preferable to headline inflation targeting

agricultural price instability a survey of competing explanations and remedies there are two explanations for agricultural price dynamics one follows cobweb logic and models fluctuations driven by expectation errors but emphasises that these expectations create complex dynamics and possibly chaos the other stems from the rational expectations tradition of dynamics driven by real shocks the empirical evidence tends to support the latter but is not conclusive the rational expectations model generates an optimal dynamic path from which no improvement can be expected from public intervention however if we take account of all the potential market failures in agricultural markets and especially in developing countries this conclusion might require some qualifications although an appropriate policy design for stability has still to be achieved this paper surveys the positive and normative literature on agricultural prices highlighting empirical evidence and identifying remaining unresolved issues

lender penalty for environmental damage and the equilibrium cost of capital in a model of the lending relationship incorporating both adverse selection and moral hazard we show that increasing the liability of lenders for environmental damage done by their borrowers has a qualitatively ambiguous impact upon interest rates this calls into question the assertion of financial community representatives that such reform will necessarily driveup interest rates and have adverse macroeconomic consequences if it is this fear which is preventing reform then that reluctance may in the case of many classes of pollutant be misplaced the implications of such reform for credit rationing are also explored

optimal taxation of flow pollutants when firms may also inflict catastrophic environmental damage in many industries firms affect the environment in two distinct types of ways firstly they emit routine anticipated volumes of flow pollutants secondly they can potentially inflict catastrophic environmental damage liability for which may be overhanging or limited by the law operaters of chemical plants nuclear power stations and oil tankers are three examples if an emissions tax or charge is to be levied on the flow pollutants in these cases how should it be set we use simple dynamic programming techniques to characterise second best optimality we identify contexts in which the tax should be raised above its pigovian level to take account of the catastrophic potential and others where it should be set below that level the analysis has significant implications for how policymakers should go about calibrating ecological taxes in a number of high profile industries

variance of agricultural prices industrial prices and money the relative uncertainty of agricultural prices and industrial prices with respect to the uncertainty of growth in the money supply are investigated utilizing multivariate arch and garch analysis the conditional variances of agricultural prices were shown to dwarf the variances of industrial prices and the money supply the relatively greater sensitivity of the conditional variance of agricultural prices to changes in the variance of the money supply than industrial prices found in this analysis provides a further perspective on the uncertainty confronting farmers including the impacts of the monetary policy shock that precipitated the farm financial crisis in the early 1980s

central bank announcements of asset purchases and the impact on global financial and commodity markets abstract we present evidence on the effects of large scale asset purchases by the federal reserve and the bank of england since 2008 we show that announcements about these purchases led to lower long term interest rates and depreciations of the u s dollar and the british pound on announcement days while commodity prices generally declined despite this more stimulative financial environment we suggest that lsap announcements likely involved signaling effects about future growth that led investors to downgrade their u s growth forecasts lowering long term us yields depreciating the value of the u s dollar and triggering a decline in commodity prices moreover our analysis illustrates the importance of controlling for market expectations when assessing these effects we find that positive u s monetary surprises led to declines in commodity prices even as long term interest rates fell and the u s dollar depreciated in contrast on days of negative u s monetary surprises i e when markets evidently believed that monetary policy was less stimulatory than expected long term yields the value of the dollar and commodity prices all tended to increase

environmental federalism and environmental liability abstract environmental federalism considers what level of government should optimally regulate pollution this paper addresses this question for accidental pollution which government regulates through the ex post liability regimes of either negligence or strict liability we find that decentralizing the choice between these regimes does not in general induce the socially optimal outcome when firms can pay all damages all regions may choose negligence and impose an overly strict standard of due care when firms may be bankrupted by damages all regions may choose strict liability which induces too little care in addition asymmetric equilibria are possible in which some regions choose negligence others strict liability combining negligence with a pigovian tax or strict liability with a bonding requirement can align regional authorities incentives with those of a central government

monetary shocks and relative farm prices a re examination the effect of monetary policy on the farm sector remains controversial studies of the effects of monetary disturbances on relative farm prices report conflicting results some find that positive monetary shocks increase relative farm prices in the short run and others detect no such effect we offer a resolution of these conflicting findings by reestimating existing models on a common data set when sample periods corresponding to the original studies are used the conflicting results are confirmed in contrast when samples are updated through 1993 all models supply the same result monetary shocks do not affect relative farm prices

strategic judgment proofing a liquidity constrained entrepreneur raises capital to finance a business activity that may harm bystanders the entrepreneur raises senior secured debt to shield assets from the tort victims in bankruptcy for a fixed level of borrowing senior debt creates better incentives for precaution taking than either junior debt or outside equity the entrepreneur s level of borrowing is however socially excessive giving tort victims priority over senior debtholders in bankruptcy prevents overleveraging but leads to suboptimal incentives lender liability exacerbates the incentive problem even further a limited seniority rule dominates these alternatives shareholder liability mandatory liability insurance and punitive damages are also discussed

environmental risk and extended liability the case of green technologies abstract we analyze the effect of extending environmental risk to banks we assume that the firm needs external funds to invest in green technology and reduce the risk of environmental damage prevention may affect the distribution of both environmental losses and operating revenues we show that under moral hazard the firm does not always invest less in prevention than the optimal social level we also show that extending liability may improve both the level of prevention and the level of compensation however extended liability always leads to an increased probability of bankruptcy for the firm we also obtain that partial extended liability improves social welfare while full extended liability does not

real effects of monetary policy in a world economy abstract we present a two country heterogeneous agent model in which changes in a country s monetary policy affect real interest rates relative prices of traded and nontraded goods and real exchange rates nontransitory real effects of monetary policy stem from legal restrictions in the form of country specific reserve requirements without violating the classical assumptions of individual rationality and flexible prices the model s implications seem qualitatively consistent with the u s experience of the 1980s a monetary policy tightening leading to a rise in the real interest rate and to an initial rise in the real value of the dollar which is subsequently reversed

bankruptcy and care choice this article considers the care choice of a potentially bankrupt injurer when care is pecuniary and the legal system is characterized by strict liability i show contrary to previous results that such an injurer may take too little or too much care and that neither injurer care nor victim welfare is necessarily increasing in injurer wealth when injurers behave optimally analysis of an expected cost function demonstrates that injurer expected costs are a concave and increasing function of injurer assets a result suggesting applications to the study of vertical relationships and markets for agents

how liable should a lender be the case of judgment proof firms and environmental risk comment recently u s environmental law has shown a tendency toward increased lender liability a model of a potentially judgment proof owner of a firm a lender and a potential victim is developed in which this policy can increase accident frequency and reduce efficiency full partial and zero lender liability rules and a minimum equity requirement are analyzed partial lender liability and an equivalent minimum equity requirement deliver the highest level of efficiency although the former can deliver a higher contribution by the lender to the victim than the latter policy and empirical implications are also discussed copyright 1995 by american economic association

environmental policy based on strict liability implications of uncertainty and bankruptcy a firm level model is developed to analyze the impacts of bankruptcy and uncertain firm wealth on incentives for safety under a strict liability rule future damages and wealth are uncertain and a firm s income earning activities that possibly create damages are incorporated into the model this analysis shows that firms do not always undertake more of a risky activity than is socially desirable for the extremely hazardous industry case larger firms always undertake less of a risky activity than smaller firms for the cyclical industry case larger firms do not always conduct less of a risky activity than smaller firms

the influence of financial status on the effectiveness of environmental enforcement abstract this paper analyzes the influence of financial status on the effectiveness of environmental enforcement it considers multiple dimensions of both enforcement and financial status regarding enforcement the paper considers both the likelihood of enforcement as captured by the likelihood of inspections conducted at regulated facilities and the severity of enforcement as captured by the size of sanctions imposed on polluting facilities found violating their effluent limits as indicators of corporate financial status the paper considers measures of liquidity solvency and profitability a proxy for corporate managerial skill all of which can influence the likelihood that a firm faces liquidity and or bankruptcy constraints the paper first develops a theoretical model of optimal abatement in the presence of liquidity and bankruptcy constraints and uses the model to investigate the impact of financial status on optimal abatement and the effectiveness of enforcement then the paper empirically examines the interactions between enforcement and financial status using data on wastewater discharges from us chemical manufacturing facilities for the years 1995 to 2001 empirical results suggest that the financial status dimensions considered here in general play an important role in determining the incentives created by enforcement as the most striking result we show theoretically and empirically that when financial dimensions are included in the analysis the conventional wisdom regarding the effect of enforcement likelihood on abatement no longer holds i e increased enforcement can actually lead to worse environmental performance

the empirical merit of structural explanations of commodity price volatility review and perspectives this paper presents both the history of and state of the art in empirical modeling approaches to the world commodity price volatility the analysis builds on the storage model and key milestones in its development specifically it is intended to offer a reader unfamiliar with the relevant literature an insight into the modeling issues at stake from both a historical and speculative viewpoint the review considers primarily the empirical techniques designed to assess the merits of the storage theory it does not address purely statistical approaches that do not rely on storage theory and that have been studied in depth in other streams of the commodity price literature the paper concludes with some suggestions for future research to try to resolve some of the existing empirical flaws and hopefully to increase the explanatory power of the storage model

fiscal policy elastic labor supply and endogenous growth abstract endogenizing labor supply leads to fundamental changes in the equilibrium structure of the ak growth model the balanced growth equilibrium can be described in terms of two tradeoff loci relating the equilibrium growth rate to the fraction of time devoted to leisure the implications of endogenous labor supply for fiscal policy are analyzed three issues are addressed first the effects of various distortionary tax changes and government expenditure changes on the equilibrium growth leisure employment tradeoff are analyzed second optimal fiscal policy is characterized finally the formal analysis is supplemented by numerical results focusing particularly on the quantitative welfare implications

anticipated environmental policy and transitional dynamics in an endogenous growth model this paper makes a new attempt toinvestigate how an anticipatedenvironmental policy governs the transitionaldynamics of an economy when pollutionexternality is taken into account themodeling strategy we use is an ak technologyendogenous growth framework with an endogenousleisure labor choice it is found that unlikeinelastic labor supply framework a rise inpublic abatement expenditure will stimulate thebalanced economic growth rate it is alsofound that public abatement technology plays animportant role in determining the transitionaladjustment of the economic growth rate inresponse to a pre announced environmentalpolicy

liability and organizational choice abstract scholars have long maintained that increases in liability encourage firms to contract out risky activities in order to take advantage of so called judgment proof strategies these strategies allow entities to limit their liability through contractual arrangements with nearly insolvent firms however the use of judgment proof firms triggers countervailing effects it provides opportunities to externalize liability through judgment proof firms but the insolvency of these firms introduces distortion in care levels that can generate more liability costs these costs may outweigh the benefits of externalizing liability making contracting out suboptimal a simple model of organizational decision making with judgment proof firms is developed and applied to the oil industry where contracting out decreased in response to heightened liability following the exxon valdez oil spill

pollution the cost of public funds and endogenous growth abstract theories of endogenous growth are used to investigate the effect of environmental policy on the rate of economic growth and the provision of public goods in a second best market outcome pollution gives rise to a negative environmental externality and is modeled as an inevitable by product of production the government faces the dual task of on the one hand internalising environmental externalities and on the other hand raising public funds to finance public spending a tougher environmental policy reduces the rate of economic growth improves environmental quality raises the optimal tax rate and changes the composition of public spending away from productive government spending towards public consumption and abatement the marginal cost of public funds falls rises if productive government spending is negligible substantial relative to public consumption and abatement

transitional impacts of environmental policy in an endogenous growth model to explore the link between a tighter environmental policy and economic growth the authors employ an endogenous growth model with endogenous technological progress in abatement technologies the environment which is modelled as a renewable resource acts both as a public consumption good and as a public input into production the entire transition towards a new balanced growth path after a tightening of environmental policy is computed analytically the authors find sharp contrasts between short run and long run effects whereas the level and the growth rate of output may decline in the short run income growth may improve in the long run copyright 1996 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

do oil prices respond to real interest rates abstract we show that the robustness of an inverse relationship between the real interest rate and real oil price depends crucially on how the real interest rate is calculated and the time frame of the sample consistent with earlier studies we find that the oil price falls with an unexpected rise in either u s or international ex ante real interest rates when the ex post real interest rate is used the oil price only falls with rises to short term rates 3 months or less additionally the response of the oil price to long term ex ante real interest rates must include the period through the mid 2000s for the inverse relationship to appear in contrast the oil price consistently falls with unexpected rises in short term real interest rates throughout the entire sample we draw two conclusions from the results the first is that the oil price is consistently responsive to short term u s and international real interest rates underlying the importance of storage second oil prices have become more responsive to long term real interest rates over time

implications of the macroeconomic outlook for agriculture this paper analyzes the implications for agriculture of the macroeconomic scenarios put forth by bosworth and lawrence a substantial body of work in recent years has developed both the theoretical framework and empirical evidence on the channels of influence between the macroeconomy and agriculture the aaea sponsored preconference workshop this year entitled value of large scale aggregate models for economic policy analysis manifests the profession s interest in quantifying the effects that macroeconomic factors have upon the economic performance and financial health of agriculture this paper draws upon the findings of previous work in general terms but more specifically we present the agricultural implications of two alternative macroeconomic environments implied by an existing macroeconomic model which emphasizes agriculture s interface with the macroeconomy the second section of this paper reviews the major findings of the literature on transmission mechanisms linking agriculture with the general economy the third section provides key details of how agriculture fares under bosworth and lawrence s outlook for the general economy through 1990 including the implications for farm prices cash receipts wealth and financial stress the fourth section discusses the consequences of one potential deviation from bosworth and lawrence s out

budget balance welfare and the growth rate dynamic scoring of the long run government budget this paper determines conditions under which a reduction in the role of government either through a tax cut alone or together with accompanying expenditure cuts will improve long run government fiscal balance for a ceteris paribus cut in the income tax rate to improve long run government balance the intertemporal elasticity of substitution must exceed unity a tax cut balanced by an expenditure cut is likely to improve the long run balance even if it does not improve the short run balance the relationship between improving the long run fiscal balance and economic welfare is also analyzed

environmental accidents under moral hazard and limited firm liability we study optimal government policy when firms operations involve a risk of a large environmental accident firms do not have sufficient assets to cover such costs and the risk is affected by firms efforts which are unobservable to outsiders when firms profits and government revenues have equal weights in the social welfare function a first best can be implemented and requires that the firm be subsidized heavily when operating with no accident and all its assets confiscated in the event of an accident with a lower weight on firm profits the solution is always second best with lower subsidies to the firm and a firm effort lower than at the first best solution when firm investments affect both the required accident preventing effort for given risk and the work effort required for a given output the first best never involves specific investment subsidies while a second best solution generally always does

strict liability as a deterrent in toxic waste management empirical evidence from accident and spill data abstract this paper examines whether strict liability imposed on polluters has reduced uncontrolled releases of toxics into the environment we fit regressions relating spills of selected chemicals to the type of liability in force in a state and to state manufacturing activity for some chemicals spills are more numerous in states imposing strict liability this could be due to unobserved state characteristics with small firms being responsible for a disproportionate number of spills regardless of the liability structure alternatively separate regressions for the two liability regimes suggest that only under strict liability are small firms responsible for a disproportionate number of spills

relative agricultural prices and monetary policy an imperfect information rational expectations model of relative price determination is presented this model provides an econometric specification for testing for a causal relationship between money and the relative prices of agricultural commodities test results indicate that variations in the growth rate of the nominal money supply whether anticipated or unanticipated have not been an important influence on the average level of prices received by farmers relative to other prices in the economy over the period 1951 85

commodity prices interest rates and the dollar this paper sheds light on recent fluctuations in commodity prices we investigate whether a decline in real interest rates and the us dollar contributes to higher commodity prices and whether commodity prices display overshooting behavior in response to changes in real interest rates we analyze the behavior of real prices of crude oil food metals and industrial raw materials the analysis is based on structural var models estimated on quarterly data over the period 1990q1 2007q4 our results suggest that commodity prices increase significantly in response to reductions in real interest rates moreover oil prices and prices of industrial raw materials tend to display overshooting behavior in response to such interest rate changes the evidence also suggests that a weaker dollar leads to higher commodity prices shocks to interest rates and the dollar are found to account for substantial shares of fluctuations in commodity prices

liability and large scale long term hazards this paper analyzes the application of liability to large scale long term hazards the key features distinguishing such hazards are the long temporal separation between exposure to a hazard and disease and the large damages when injuries finally emerge the large scale of damages creates a strong incentive to avoid liability payments and the long temporal separation creates numerous avenues through which parties can avoid paying possible damage awards the analysis focuses on the incentive to avoid paying damages by vertically divesting production tasks associated with serious occupational risks such divestiture can lower liability costs if the small firm operating the risky stage goes out of business before latent injuries emerge or has insufficient assets to pay damages and declares bankruptcy when suits are filed the paper then presents an empirical regression analysis of small firm entry into the u s economy between 1967 and 1980 the period in which liability laws were changing the point estima

hidden unemployment a search theoretic interpretation abstract labor force surveys show that in the united states a significant fraction of the jobless who do not search for work and who are therefore not classified as unemployed by official statistics state that they want a job now a model of job search is used to interpret this phenomenon

accidents waiting to happen liability policy and toxic pollution releases proponents of environmental policies based on liability assert that strict liability imposed on polluters induces firms to handle hazardous wastes properly we examine unintended pollution releases relating them to the liability imposed on polluters by state mini superfund laws we find that strict liability reduces the frequency and severity of pollution releases but that its effects vary with firm size smaller firms are associated with more pollution releases in states with strict liability suggesting that in these states smaller firms may have specialized in riskier production processes their number however has not necessarily grown in response to the state s liability policy

can environmental taxation stimulate growth the role of indeterminacy in endogenous growth models with environmental externalities abstract this paper examines the effects of environmental taxation on long run growth in an infinitely lived representative agent model of endogenous growth with negative pollution externalities the novelty of this paper lies in its investigation of how the long run effects of environmental taxes are affected by the possible emergence of indeterminacy of equilibria in romer s 1986 increasing returns and long run growth journal of political economy 94 1002 1037 learning by doing model with endogenous labor supply the analysis shows that environmental taxation generally enhances harms long run growth when the balanced growth path is indeterminate determinate

on being asset constrained in litigation contests this paper establishes that being asset constrained may be advantageous for defendants in litigation contests an active asset constraint of defendants i may increase decrease defendant plaintiff contest effort ii may lower the sum of plaintiff and defendant contest effort iii lowers expected defendant payment and iv makes a symmetric contest asymmetric

commodity prices money surprises and fed credibilit strict monetarist theory in an extreme form holds that excessive money growth or the expectation of future money growth shows up immediately in the rapid inflation of goods prices however it is widely argued that for most goods prices are in fact sticky in the short run and reflect money growth only in the long run if one seeks a sensitive market measure of the perceived looseiless or tightness of monetary policy one must look elsewhere than at the general price level interest rates being determined in quickly adjusting financial markets are free to respond immediately to expectations regarding monetary policy in 1981 and 1982 every friday at 4 10 p m eastern standard time the federal reserve board would announce the money stock for the week ending nine days previously if the announced money stock was different from what the market had been expecting interest rates generally jumped in the same direction clearly they were responding to revisions of the expected future path of the money stock but nominal interest rates are an ambiguous indicator of expectations on the one hand an announced increase in the money stock may be received by the market as indicating a higher

optimal growth with renewable resources and pollution abstract this paper presents three models which combine the optimal dynamics of economic growth renewable resource harvesting and pollution we investigate growth pollution and renewable resources as a three state variable problem the economy has three inputs man made capital renewable resources and emissions endogenous pollution affects both the growth of the renewable resource stock and the social welfare it is shown that the existence of the steady state depends in a complicated manner and in addition to preferences on the production technology growth of the renewable resource and the rate of decay of pollution the sufficient conditions for the existence of a global saddle point are given conditions under which the market solution equals the optimal solution of the social planner and the consequences of a too low externality tax on emissions or on common property resource harvesting are discussed

expectations and commodity price dynamics the overshooting model monetary policy has important effects on agricultural commodity prices because though they are flexible other goods prices are sticky this paper formalizes the argument by applying the dornbusch overshooting model a decline in the nominal money supply is a decline in the real money supply in the short run it raises the real interest rate which depresses real commodity prices they overshoot their new equilibrium in order to generate an expectation of future appreciation sufficient to offset the higher interest rate these real effects which vanish in the long run also result from a decline in the money growth rate

does global liquidity drive commodity prices abstract this paper tackles the question of whether a cross sectional perspective on monetary policy is capable of explaining movements in global commodity prices in this vein we contribute to the rich literature on global liquidity in two different ways on the one hand to achieve a global series in terms of common monetary policy shocks we propose a distinction between common and idiosyncratic factors across economies as proposed by bai and ng 2004 our second innovation stems from the consideration of a markov switching vector error correction model when analyzing time varying short run dynamics having identified the long run structure which includes a proportional relationship between commodity prices and global liquidity in the first step our results indeed show that the impact of a global liquidity measure on different commodity prices is significant and varies over time one regime approximately accounts for times where commodity prices significantly adjust to disequilibria while the second regime is characterized by either a weak or no commodity price adjustment the fact that global liquidity also reacts to disequilibria in a specific regime demonstrates the two way causality between monetary policy and commodity prices

dynamic analysis of an endogenous growth model with public capital this paper develops an endogenous growth model with productive public capital along with private capital in a spirit similar to that of r j barro 1990 since the authors model includes two stock variables it has transitional dynamics unlike most of the previous studies on endogenous growth including barro s where concerns are restricted to the steady state analysis first they show that the transitional path is unique and stable second the character of the transitional path is explored third the authors show that the optimal tax rate is smaller than the rate that maximizes the national growth rate with a log linear utility function copyright 1993 by the editors of the scandinavian journal of economics