what determines the duration of a fiscal consolidation program abstract this paper assesses the determinants of the length of fiscal consolidation using annual data for 17 industrial countries over the period 1978 2009 relying on a narrative approach to identify fiscal consolidation episodes we show that fiscal variables such as the budget deficit and the level of public debt and economic factors such as the degree of openness the inflation rate the interest rate and per capita gdp are crucial for the fiscal consolidation process additionally we employ duration analysis over a set of consolidation spells and find that as time goes by the likelihood of a fiscal consolidation ending is higher however the hazard function is not monotonic indeed it increases until the eighth or ninth year and starts decreasing afterwards we also find that i spending driven consolidations are shorter than tax driven consolidations ii both types of consolidation are longer in non european countries than for european countries and iii the size of the consolidation program in percentage of gdp does not significantly affect duration all in all our results support the importance of cuts in government spending as a way of bringing economies into a sustainable path for public debt moreover they highlight the role played by a fiscal framework that imposes discipline in governments as a device to credibly shorten the length of fiscal consolidation episodes

tax competition between developed emerging and developing countries same same but different abstract this paper analyzes tax competition between countries which differ in their country specific risks we show that the outcome of asymmetric tax competition crucially depends on the ability of multinational firms to shift profits with high costs of profit shifting higher risk countries set lower tax rates than lower risk countries whereas the opposite is true if the costs of profit shifting are low the results provide an explanation for the patterns observed in the corporate income tax policies across countries differing in their level of development moreover for intermediate costs of profit shifting we show that countries absolute risk level plays an important role in tax rate setting these results carry important implication for the empirical tax competition literature

prospects for enhanced exchange rate cooperation in east asia some preliminary findings from generalized ppp theory the asian financial crisis increased economic disparities in the east asian ea region thus making monetary integration more difficult but rekindled political interest in asian monetary and exchange rate cooperation this article applies the theory of generalized purchasing power parity g ppp which looks at the behaviour of long run real exchange rates to assess the potential for an optimum currency area oca among a subset of ea countries based on five of the more advanced members of the association of southeast asian nations asean5 our findings suggest little support for an oca for asean5 as a bloc prior to the asian financial crisis and mixed results in the post crisis period in particular asymmetries in the way countries adjust to shocks and low or insignificant speeds of adjustment were found thus although the application of single oca criteria is notoriously demanding and our tests apply to only one of the many criteria for the successful formation of an oca we cannot find persuasive

are asian real exchange rates stationary by applying the newly developed nonlinear stationary test advanced by kapetanios et al journal of econometrics 112 2003 359 in examining the stationary property of 11 asian real exchange rates this paper rejects unit root in 8 us dollar based and 6 japanese yen based rates whereas the augmented dickey fuller adf test has led to no rejection at all

redistribution policy and the expansion of the public sector abstract during the first part of this century life cycle and insurance type considerations seem to have dominated redistribution policy in particular when we look at the consequences for the expansion of public spending by contrast during recent decades fragmented horizontal redistributions between various minority groups have probably been the most important mechanisms the self interest of different groups of the electorate seems to have provided the most powerful motive behind these various policies although welfare altruism and what in this paper are called considerations of consequential externalities have probably been important motives behind redistribution in favor of the poor

guest editor s introduction to the special issue the evolution of firm capabilities this special issue deals with the question of how it is that over time some firms manage to become successful using their capabilities while other firms do not the articles examine the ways in which firm capabilities emerge develop and change over time and the resulting effects on firm performance conceptual models and analyses based on empirical research deal with market entry and the evolution of firm capabilities adaptation and change in capabilities and heterogeneity of firm capabilities over time within these broad themes specific topics include the role of pre entry experience and initial conditions aspirations and learning dynamic capabilities technological change products and markets mergers and acquisitions and managerial cognition copyright 2000 john wiley sons ltd

real and monetary determinants of real exchange rate behavior theory and evidence from developing countries abstract this paper develops a dynamic model of real exchange rate rer behavior in developing countries a three goods economy exportables importables and non tradables is considered residents of this country hold domestic and foreign assets and there is a dual exchange rate regime there is a government that consumes importables and non tradables a distinction is made between equilibrium and disequilibrium movements of the rer the determinants of real exchange rate misalignment are studied with emphasis placed on the role of devaluations and balance of payments crises the implications of the model are tested using data for 12 developing countries the results obtained are generally favorable for the model the issue of rer stationarity is also analyzed

the economic modeling of strategy process clean models and dirty hands we argue that our model of learning in alliances khanna gulati and nohria 1998 is an economic model of strategy process we discuss implications of this view for the strategy process vs content debate for the appropriate testing of models of strategy process and for the role of economics in helping understand strategy process we propose that the clean models from economics and dirty hands of traditional process inquiries offer research designs that are complementary rather than incompatible hirsch michaels and friedman 1987 copyright 2000 john wiley sons ltd

peacock and wiseman on the growth of public expenditure the late nineteenth century view of the growth of the public sector enuciated by adolph wagner 1890 now known as wagner s law accorded well with the doctrine of comparative advantage with the growth of the industrial economy a complementary demand was set up alongside industrial and manufacturing expansion for transport and communication services energy and waste disposal central and local governments were viewed as having a comparative advantage in providing such services justifying wagner s law that government expenditure would continuously increase as a percentage of gross domestic product in a growing economy in 1961 as part of their seminal study of the growth of public expenditure in the united kingdom alan t peacock and jack wiseman1 questioned the generality of wagner s law and introduced their now famous displacement effect hypothesis to explain the time path of the growth of government in democratic countries writing before the public choice research program was at all well established peacock and wiseman nevertheless rejected wagner s reliance upon the organic state and relied instead on political propositions that

the exchange rate and fiscal consolidation episodes in emerging market economies abstract an analysis of fiscal consolidations in emerging market economies during 1970 2004 suggests that exchange rate depreciation raises the probability of a fiscal consolidation being successful including when controlling for debt growth the composition of the consolidation and degree of democracy

expansionary fiscal contractions evidence from panel data we examine the ability of the expansionary fiscal contraction efc hypothesis to explain the performance of oecd economies during fiscal crises we find some limited evidence in its favour if public consumption is reduced in response to a fiscal crisis as defined by a high level of debt private consumption does seem to increase however the size of the effect is smaller than that typically found in other studies furthermore the increase in private consumption is usually not sufficient to offset the direct effect of a reduction in public consumption on output fiscal contractions are not literally expansionary

trade policies and welfare in a harris todaro economy in many developing countries rising unemployment is often attributed to increases in foreign imports triggered by declining foreign prices of imports to correct the chronic unemployment problem some developing countries chose an import substitution strategy by shutting off imports whereas others adopted an outward oriented policy by promoting exports north american free trade agreement nafta was favored by mexico but opposed by organized labor in this country because it was feared that nafta may increase unemployment in the u s which of these policies is more effective in reducing unemployment and raising domestic income protection has been ardently supported as a practical cure for unemployment in chile and argentina and many other ldcs in latin america similarly india adopted import substitution strategies behind high protection and a considerable bias against exports 1 the literature has also justified the use of tariffs for small countries under uncertainty and unemployment 10 9 but in general protection distorts the trade pattern and magnify the extent of the leontief paradox by limiting imports of capital intensive products into these developing countries that suffer from high labor unemployment 7 in the literature there have been two types of models that analyze trade problems in the presence of unemployment the generalized unemployment models have been developed by brecher 5 6 and batra and seth 3 2 in these models wage rigidity is ubiquitous and unemployment exists in all sectors and they are appropriate to analyze the impact of trade policies on unemployment in developed economies the harris todaro ht hereafter model 13 on the other hand assumes sector specific wage rigidity and permits unemployment only in the urban sector thus the ht model is appropriate for investigating the impacts of trade policies of ldcs that suffer

fiscal adjustments and their effects during the transition to the emu the transition phase to emu hasbeen accompanied by considerable monetaryand fiscal consolidation efforts in the eu this paper analyses this consolidationprocess and its effects on economicactivity in the eu it is tested to what extent fiscal retrenchment efforts havedepressed or stimulated private spending inthe case of the latter non keynesian effectsdominate the traditional keynesianexpenditure effects of government spending taxation and transfer payments

fiscal policy in unionized labor markets abstract this paper investigates the effects of fiscal policy on economic activity public finances welfare and income distribution in a dynamic general equilibrium model with a unionized labor market the paper shows that debt financed increases of public employment wages of public sector employees unemployment benefits and labor taxes put pressure on unions wage claims leading to higher private sector wages lower employment capital and output in addition increases of public employment public wages and unemployment benefits increase workers utility relative to the pre policy change equilibrium during the transition but not in the long run instead workers utility decreases at any time horizon when labor taxes increase capitalists always benefit from increases in taxes on labor but their welfare decreases when public spending goes up finally the paper investigates the extent to which the way the government balances its budget affects these results

a unified systems perspective of family firm performance abstract theory and practice indicate that in family influenced firms the interaction of the family unit the business entity and individual family members create unique systemic conditions and constituencies that impact the performance outcomes of the family business social system habbershon and williams fam bus rev 12 1999 1 have suggested that these unique systemic family influences can be captured through an analysis of the resources and capabilities of the organization in this paper we pursue their line of thinking and more specifically examine the systemic relationship of resources and capabilities as a source of advantage or constraint to the performance outcomes for family influenced firms the idiosyncratic firm level bundle of resources and capabilities resulting from the systems interactions are referred to as the familiness of the firm wealth creating performance for family influenced firms is a function of the distinctive familiness generated by the family business system the performance model focuses on a particular subset of family influenced firms whose performance goal is transgenerational wealth and wealth creation potential we refer to those families that meet this premise as enterprising families we develop a unified systems model of performance that links the resources and capabilities generated in the enterprising families system with their potential for transgenerational wealth creation

tales of fiscal adjustment fiscal adjustments why they can be expansionary this paper examines the evidence on fiscal adjustments in oecd countries from the early 1960s to today the results shed light on the recently observed phenomenon of fiscal tightening that produces non keynesian expansionary effects one interpretation is that a serious fiscal tightening increases demand wealth rises when future tax burdens decline and when interest rates decline credibility is restored and inflation or default risks abate both consumption and investment rise for this effect to produce an expansion the tightening must be sizeable and occur after a period of stress when the budget is quickly deteriorating and public debt is building up another interpretation emphasizes the supply side typically a fiscal consolidation based on tax increases is short lived to be long lasting it must include cuts in public employment transfers and government wages to be politically possible such a policy must be supported by trade unions these measures result in more efficient labour markets and boost the supply side based both on statistical evidence and on a detailed analysis of ten cases of major fiscal adjustment this article provides cautious support to the supply side view without denying a more limited role for the demand side channel alberto alesina and silvia ardagna

fiscal stimulus in times of high debt reconsidering multipliers and twin deficits we investigate the impact of fiscal stimuli at different levels of the government debt to gdp ratio for a sample of 17 european countries from 1970 to 2010 this is implemented in an interacted panel var framework in which all coefficient parameters are allowed to change continuously with the debt to gdp ratio we find that responses to government spending shocks exhibit strong nonlinear behavior while the overall cumulative effect of a spending shock on real gdp is positive and significant at moderate debt to gdp ratios this effect turns negative as the ratio increases the total cumulative effect on the trade balance as a share of gdp is negative at first but switches sign at higher levels of debt consequently depending on the degree of public indebtedness our results accommodate long run fiscal multipliers that are greater and smaller than one or even negative as well as twin deficit and twin divergence behavior within one sample and time period from a policy perspective these results lend additional support to increased prudence at high public debt ratios because the effectiveness of fiscal stimuli to boost economic activity or resolve external imbalances may not be guaranteed

urban rural structural adjustment urban unemployment with traded and non traded goods abstract this paper extends the harris todaro model to include non traded goods and to analyze structural adjustment in ldcs we assume that the urban region produces two goods a manufactured good and an urban non traded good and the rural region also produces two commodities an agricultural and a rural non traded good our results reveal an asymmetry in the behaviour of the urban and rural regions in response to parametric changes or external shocks the effects of such changes on the endogenous urban variables are completely determinate however the responses of the endogenous variables in the rural region are ambiguous a deterioration in the terms of trade increases the relative price of the urban non traded good and increases its output at the expense of the urban traded good thus structural adjustment in urban and rural areas may be in opposite directions non regional models of structural adjustment ignore the possibility of having opposite effects in the urban and rural areas our results also provide a generalization of the dutch disease type phenomenon to a model with migration and unemployment

new hampshire s tax base limits an example of the leviathan model this study views the lack of an income tax on wages and salaries and a general sales tax in new hampshire as tax base limits i use the leviathan model to analyze the differences between the fiscal system in new hampshire and the fiscal systems in vermont maine and massachusetts vermont maine and massachusetts do not have the tax base limits that new hampshire has from 1957 to 1989 new hampshire had lower state and local government tax and expenditure levels than the other three states more rapid population growth lower welfare expenditures but comparable levels of expenditures for several of the major public services and a more competitive structure of state and local government

corporate social performance and innovation with high social benefits a quantitative analysis this article analyses the link between innovation with high social benefits and corporate social performance csp and the role that family firms play in this this theme is particularly relevant given the large number of firms that are family owned also the implicit potential of innovation to reconcile corporate sustainability aspects with profitability justifies an extended analysis of this link governments often support socially beneficial innovation with various policy instruments with the intention of increasing international competitiveness and simultaneously supporting sustainable development in parallel firms pursue corporate social responsibility csr and environmental management activities partly in the hope that this will foster such innovation in their organisation alongside their main aim of improving csp hence the main research question of this article is about the association of csp with innovation with high social benefits and the determinants of the potential moderation of this association based on panel data the article analyses the link between csp and innovation and the effect of being a family firm using panel estimation techniques the results point to a moderating role of family firms on the link between innovation with high social benefits and csp the article concludes by assessing the policy implications of this insight

saving growth and investment a macroeconomic analysis using a panel of countries this paper provides a descriptive analysis of the long and short run correlations among saving investment and growth rates for 123 countries over the period 1961 94 three results are robust across data sets and estimation methods i lagges saving rates are positively related to investment rates ii investment rates granger cause growth rates with a negative sign iii growth rates granger cause investment with a positive sign

non keynesian effects of fiscal policy in oecd economies an empirical study this article explores the hypothesis that the propensity to consume out of income varies in a nonlinear fashion with fiscal variables and in particular with government debt per capita using panel data from 18 organization for economic cooperation and development oecd countries we examine whether there is any empirical evidence to support the hypothesis that households move from non ricardian to ricardian behaviour as government debt reaches high levels and as uncertainty about future taxes increases our results provide support for this hypothesis and also suggest that private and government consumption are complements in the household utility function

family firm governance strategic conformity and performance institutional vs strategic perspectives a fundamental schism divides the family firm and strategy literatures on the one hand and the institutional literature on the other regarding both the situational prevalence and the utility of conforming behavior the first two schools respectively view strategic differentiation as especially common among family firms and an important source of competitive advantage by contrast the reasoning of institutionalists would suggest that family firms will be subject to unusually powerful motivations to conform in part because of their pursuit of socioemotional wealth objectives unfortunately the relationships between conformity and family firm governance and in fact governance in general have not been amply studied this analysis of fortune 1000 firms finds considerable support for the institutional perspective family involvement is related to greater not lesser conformity in many aspects of strategy although strategic conformity related to superior returns on assets it did not enhance firm market valuations

the curious attraction of wagner s law wagner s law of increasing state activity has recently been subjected to intensive use of recondite econometric testing procedures an examination of the relevant articles reveals ignorance both of wagner s definition of state activity and of his insistence that he was not engaged in prediction consequently the omission of public enterprises contained in wagner s definition leads to a model misspecification and the object of testing his hypothesiss remains obscure

wage subsidies and distortionary taxes in a mobile capital harris todaro model in prescribing policy to eliminate or mitigate the effects of labour market distortions some form of wage subsidy is usually among the highest ranking options rarely is the source of revenues for these subsidies treated as an explicit issue this omission has special significance for the harris todaro h t model of the labour market since the policy most frequently recommended whether capital is sector specific or intersectorally mobile is an across the board wage subsidy 2 this effectively eliminates the possibility of taxing one subset of sectors rather than subsidizing its complement an option often favoured by those theorists who concern themselves with revenue considerations the next section of this paper sets forth the model of a small open h t economy with mobile capital that is the basis for this analysis section ii re examines three wage subsidies on manufacturing wages on agricultural wages or on both sectors assuming that resources for the subsidies are raised by an across the board tax on profits this is in the tradition of cordenfindlay and we replicate their results though stating them in more precise form so that we might have a standard for later comparison the subsequent sections examine the effects of these subsidies on unemployment and resource allocation if they are financed by a tax on profits in the manufacturing sector section iii or by import tariffs section iv owing to the second best nature of the h t model it will be demonstrated that taxes normally considered distortionary in their own right can be superior to an across the board tax if revenues are constrained and can be very useful instruments if it is the variety of policy tools that is limited section v concludes with a ranking of the various subsidy tax packages

price differentials in monetary unions the role of fiscal shocks we study the effect of regional expenditure and revenue shocks on price differentials for 47 us states and 9 eu countries we identify shocks using sign restrictions on the dynamics of expenditures revenues deficits and output and construct two estimates for structural price differentials dynamics one for the average and one for each unit which optimally weight information contained in the data for all units on average expansionary fiscal disturbances produce positive while distortionary balance budget shocks produce negative price differential responses the negative price differentials responses in some units is partially explained by spillovers and labour supply effects

do fiscal variables affect fiscal expectations experiments with real world and lab data we generate observable expectations about fiscal variables through laboratory experiments using real world data from several european countries as stimuli we compare a var model of expectations for data which is presented in a fiscal frame with one for neutrally presented data we measure the degree to which participants use fiscal data for their forecasts agents expectations are found neither to be consistent with rational nor with purely adaptive expectations but instead follow an augmented adaptive scheme methodological implications of the present approach for experiments in macroeconomics are also discussed

persistence in government spending fluctuations new evidence on the displacement effect in spite of peacock and wiseman s 1961 nber study demonstrating the displacement effect simplistic theoretical and empirical distinctions between temporary and permanent spending are common in this paper impulse response functions from arma models as well as cochrane s non parametric method support peacock and wiseman s conclusion by showing 1 government spending in the aggregate displays strong persistence to temporary shocks 2 simple decomposition methods intended to yield a temporary spending series have a weak statitistical foundation and 3 persistence in spending has increased during this century also as a basic fact of government spending behavior the displacement effect lends support to interest group and bureaucracy models of government spending growth

is a monetary union feasible for east asia the empirical suitability of the east asian economies for potential monetary integration is assessed the structural vector autoregression var method is employed to identify the underlying shocks using a three variable var model across the east asian economies the estimates of the eec are used as a benchmark to compare the size of the underlying shocks and the speed of adjustment to shocks in both regions to determine the feasibility of forming an optimum currency area oca in east asia the empirical results do not display strong support for forming an oca in the east asian region the results do imply however that some small subregions are potential candidates for ocas since their disturbances are correlated and small and these economies adjust rapidly to shocks

cointegration among southeast asian and japanese currencies preliminary evidence of a yen bloc abstract financial integration in asia is assessed in this paper by examining the time series stochastic behavior and cointegration in a set of five asian currencies the japanese yen jy hong kong dollar hk malaysian ringgit mr philippines peso pp and the singapore dollar sd for the last eight years of the decade of the 1980s significant non stationarity deviations from normality and the presence of unit roots were documented for each currency furthermore in contrast to the findings for developed country liquid currencies these five currencies were found to be cointegrated these findings have important implications for understanding the expanding international role of the japanese yen and the nature of international financial integration in asia as well as for developing hedging strategies for investments and cash flows denominated in these southeast asian currencies

wagner s law versus displacement effect abstractthe public sector has grown dramatically over the past few centuries in many developed countries in this article we use wavelet methods to distinguish between two leading explanations for this growth wagner s law and the displacement effect in doing so we use the long term data of 10 oecd countries for a maximum time span of 1800 2009 we find that the validity of wagner s law is likely to vary strongly over time for each country a roughly similar feature in most of the countries is that the law is less valid in the earliest stage of economic development as well as in the advanced stages with the validity tending to follow an inverted u shaped pattern with economic development further our results indicate that the long run growth of government size cannot be adequately explained by wagner s law on the other hand the displacement effect appears to account for the bulk of the growth in most of the countries

foreign aid economic structure and dependence abstract an inflow of foreign capital leads to structural changes in the economy by lowering the relative price of tradable to non tradable goods it induces a decline of the relative share of tradables in the country s production the effect on consumption shares is less obvious since price and income effects may tend to be offsetting the existence of foreign aid also establishes a dependence of the economy on the outside world estimates of the degree of such dependence through the use of national accounts aggregates would be biased by the afore mentioned effect on relative prices hence specifically estimates of time tends based on the use of current prices may lead to different conclusions from those which employ constant prices for comparison the inferences of this paper are derived in a simple two sector small country model the concreteness and probable relevance of the main propositions are then demonstrated by empirical illustrations

complementarity status similarity and social capital as drivers of alliance formation using data on u s investment banking firms syndication in underwriting corporate stock offerings during the 1980s this study explores the factors that drive alliance formation between two specific firms we compare resource complementarity status similarity and social capital as a basis of alliance formation the findings indicate that the likelihood of investment banks alliance formation is positively related to the complementarity of their capabilities as well as their status similarity social capital arising from banks direct and indirect collaborative experiences also plays a very important role in alliance formation the number of deals given by a lead bank to a potential partner over the past three years has an inverted u shaped relationship to the probability that the lead bank will invite the potential partner to form an alliance our findings indicate that status similarity and social capital have a stronger effect on alliance formation in initial public offering deals than in secondary offering deals as the former are more uncertain than the latter using these findings we discuss the role of complementarity status similarity and social capital in alliance formation copyright 2000 john wiley sons ltd

government deficits and aggregate demand abstract the evidence presented in this paper indicates that changes in government spending transfers and taxes can have substantial effects on aggregate demand the estimates also indicate that the promise of future social security benefits significantly reduces private saving each the basic implications of the so called ricardian equivalence theorem is contradicted by the data the results are consistent with the more general view of the effects of fiscal actions and fiscal expectations that is described in the paper

does family employment enhance mses performance integrating socioemotional wealth and family embeddedness perspectives abstract this paper analyzes the effect of family employment on performance in micro and small enterprises mses by combining two research perspectives that until now have been conducted separately the family embeddedness perspective of entrepreneurship aldrich and cliff 2003 and the socioemotional wealth sew approach to family business gomez mejia et al 2007 our integrated perspective allows us to highlight how the nature of the employment relationships in mses enhances the benefits derived from the socioemotional endowment associated with family labor and reduces the opportunity costs of employing relatives moreover we assert that this relationship is moderated by specific family characteristics that determine the firm s ability to preserve the sew while at the same time pursuing financial goals our results provide partial support to the enhancing role of family labour on mses performance employing family members increases sales but decreases profitability as measured by roa this effect also results in improved performance for women led firms and for firms that have received family funding but impairs mses performance when the business is the main source of the owner s household income

the displacement effect in the growth of governments we analyze the displacement effect within a multivariaterevenue expenditure model of government growth based on along historical dataset for italy our long run analysisshows a permanent influence of domestic product on the growthof governments supporting wagner s law the short rundynamics are more complex and provide some evidence for thedisplacement effect in terms of a lower resistance againsttax financing of government spending in the post war inaddition government spending adjusts faster when deviationsfrom its equilibrium get larger

fiscal deficits and growth in developing countries this paper examines the relation between fiscal deficits and growth for a panel of 45 developing countries based on a consistent treatment of the government budget constraint it finds evidence of a threshold effect at a level of the deficit around 1 5 of gdp while there appears to be a growth payoff to reducing deficits to this level this effect disappears or reverses itself for further fiscal contraction the magnitude of this payoff but not its general character necessarily depends on how changes in the deficit are financed through changes in borrowing or seigniorage and on how the change in the deficit is accommodated elsewhere in the budget we also find evidence of interaction effects between deficits and debt stocks with high debt stocks exacerbating the adverse consequences of high deficits

searching for non linear effects of fiscal policy evidence from industrial and developing countries several recent studies suggest that the response of national saving to scal policy may be non linear in this paper we use two data sets to search for the circumstances in which such non linear response may arise a sample of oecd countries already used in previous studies and a sample of developing countries using more recent world bank data we nd that in both samples non linear e ects tend to be associated with large and persistent scal impulses in the oecd sample the non linearity of the response is stronger for scal contractions than for expansions an increase in net taxes has no e ect on national saving during large scal contractions while it has a positive e ect in less pronounced contractions high or rapidly growing public debt does not appear to be a good predictor of non linear e ects in the world bank sample of developing countries non linearities in the response national saving to scal policy are not limited to large scal contractions and also tend to occur in periods in which debt is accumulating rapidly regardless of its initial level 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved jel classixcation e21 e62 h31

urban unemployment and the gains from trade a welfare ranking of alternative commercial policies is constructed for the mobile capital harris todaro economy it is sh own that despite the presence of unemployment most noninterventioni st policies suggested by the competitive model of gains from trade ca rry over to the mobile capital harris todaro economy yet in contradi ction to the competitive model it is shown that all forms of trade i ntervention are not detrimental to welfare only those that reduce th e volume of trade are the export promotion policies so copiously fol lowed by developing countries are vindicated but their import substi tution policies are shown to be without justification copyright 1987 by the review of economic studies limited

macroeconomic effects of fiscal adjustment a tale of two approaches abstract we investigate the short term effects of fiscal adjustment on economic activity in 20 oecd countries from 1970 to 2009 we compare two approaches the traditional approach based on changes in cyclically adjusted primary balance capb and the narrative approach based on historical records proponents of the latter argue that it captures discretionary fiscal adjustment more accurately than the traditional approach we propose a new definition of capb that takes account of fluctuations in asset prices and reflects idiosyncratic features of fiscal policy in individual countries using this new definition we find that fiscal adjustments always have contractionary effects on economic activity in the short term we find no evidence of expansionary non keynesian fiscal adjustments spending based fiscal adjustments lead to smaller output losses than tax based fiscal adjustment these results are in line with the literature using the narrative approach suggesting that the capb when correctly specified can be used as a measure of fiscal adjustments

succession financing in family firms business succession is one of the primary management challenges for family firms however many family firms fail at this task because of financial issues although a vast number of studies have investigated the succession process research thus far has failed to determine how and why family firms select particular forms of financing for succession related expenditures accordingly this study conceptually and empirically investigates succession financing we introduce a conceptual framework that investigates the reasons behind an owner manager s intent to use debt for succession financing specifically our model accounts for general and succession related personal factors however we also include a set of firm specific financing behavioral controls in our research the empirical results are derived from a sample of 187 german family firms and the results highlight financial knowledge attitudes succession experience and succession planning as significant determinants of the owner managers debt usage intentions the implications and avenues for future research are discussed

military spending and economic growth in china a regime switching analysis this article investigates the impact of military spending changes on economic growth in china over the period 1953 to 2010 using two state markov switching specifications the results suggest that the relationship between military spending changes and economic growth is state dependent specifically the results show that military spending changes affect the economic growth negatively during a slower growth higher variance state while positively within a faster growth lower variance one it is also demonstrated that military spending changes contain information about the growth transition probabilities as a policy tool the results indicate that increases in military spending can be detrimental to growth during slower growth higher growth volatility periods

convergence and catching up in asean a comparative analysis the increasing diversity of average growth rates and income levels across countries has generated a large literature on testing the income convergence hypothesis most countries in south east asia particularly the five founding asean member countries asean 5 have experienced substantial economic growth with the pace of growth having varied substantially across countries recent empirical studies have found evidence of several convergence clubs in which per capita incomes have converged for selected groupings of countries and regions this paper applies different time series tests of convergence to determine if there is a convergence club for asean 5 as well as asean 5 and the usa the catching up hypothesis states that the lagging country with low initial income and productivity levels will tend to grow more rapidly by copying the technology of the leader country without having to bear the associated costs of research and development given the important effects of technological change on growth

capital structure decision making a model for family business abstract most theoretical and empirical studies of capital structure focus on public corporations only a limited number of studies on capital structure have been conducted on small to medium size enterprises smes and this deficiency is particularly evident in investigations into factors that influence funding decisions of family business owners theory indicates that there is a complex array of factors that influence sme owner managers financing decisions recent family business literature suggests that these processes are influenced by firm owners attitudes toward the utility of debt as a form of funding as moderated by external environmental conditions e g financial and market considerations a number of other factors have been shown to influence financing decisions including culture entrepreneurial characteristics entrepreneurs prior experiences in capital structure business goals business life cycle issues preferred ownership structures views regarding control debt equity ratios and short vs long term debt age and size of the firm sources of funding for growth attitudes toward debt financing issues relating to independence and control and perceived risk and attitudes toward personal risk although these factors have been identified until now there does not appear to have been any attempts to develop empirically based models that show relationships between these factors and family business owners financing decisions utilizing theories derived from divergent disciplines this study develops an empirically tested structural equation model of financing antecedents of family businesses participants of our study involved a random sample of 5000 business owners who were mailed a 250 item australian family and private business questionnaire developed specifically for this investigation notably our findings reveal that firm size family control business planning and business objectives are significantly associated with debt small family businesses and owners who do not have formal planning processes in place tend to rely on family loans as a source of finance however family businesses in the service industry e g retailers and wholesalers are less likely to use family loans as are those owners who are planning to achieve growth through new products or process development use of capital and retained profits is likely for family businesses planning to achieve growth through an increase in sales but less is likely for family businesses in the manufacturing sector and lifestyle firms in addition debt and family loans are negatively related to capital and retained profits equity is a consideration for owners of large businesses young firms and owners who plan to achieve growth through increasing profit margins however equity is less likely to be a consideration for older family business owners and owners who have a preference for retaining family control our findings suggest that the interplay between multiple social family and financial factors is complex in addition our findings indicate the importance of utilizing theories that also help to explain behavioral factors e g owners needs to be in control that affect financial structure decision making processes practitioners and researchers should consider the dynamic interplay among business characteristics e g size or industry behavioral aspects of business financing e g business objectives and financial factors e g gearing levels when working with and researching family enterprises

private equity investment decisions in family firms the role of human resources and agency costs abstract this study examines decision making criteria that are employed by private equity pe investors selecting family firms hypotheses test the likelihood of investment based on family firm characteristics findings show that pe professionals take into account family specific criteria including human resources and opportunities to reduce agency costs furthermore pe professionals prefer family firms that are already professionalized this research contributes to the family firm literature on both a theoretical and a methodological level exploring nonfamily succession routes and employing techniques conjoint analysis for data collection and multilevel models for data analysis that have seldom been used in this context

fiscal stabilizations when do they work and why abstract this paper studies the determinants and channels through which fiscal contractions influence the dynamics of the debt to gdp ratio and gdp growth using data from a panel of oecd countries the paper shows that the success of fiscal adjustments in decreasing the debt to gdp ratio depends on the size of the fiscal contraction and less on its composition the rate of growth of output matters too but higher gdp growth does not drive the success of a fiscal stabilization in contrast whether a fiscal adjustment is expansionary depends largely on the composition of the fiscal maneuvre in particular stabilizations implemented by cutting public spending lead to higher gdp growth rates the effects of the composition on growth work mostly through the labor market rather than through agents expectations of future fiscal policy finally the evidence suggests that successful and expansionary fiscal contractions are not the result of accompanying expansionary monetary policy or exchange rate devaluations

competencies and firm performance examining the causal ambiguity paradox resource based theory argues that resources must be valuable rare inimitable and lack substitutes to confer competitive advantage inimitability is a lynchpin of resource based theory and central to understanding the sustainability of competitive advantage although scholars recognize a positive relationship between causal ambiguity and inimitability the relationship among critical resources called competencies causal ambiguity and firm performance remains an unresolved conundrum one perspective suggests that causal ambiguity regarding competencies and performance is necessary among internal and external managers for sustainable competitive advantage because it severely limits imitation causal ambiguity therefore enhances firm performance another view holds that causal ambiguity places a constraint on the transfer and leveraging of these competencies within a firm in this case causal ambiguity may adversely influence firm performance this paper takes a resource based view to develop and test hypotheses that relate managers perceptions of causal ambiguity to their firm s performance the hypotheses examine relationships between firm performance and 1 causal ambiguity regarding the link between competencies and competitive advantage and 2 causally ambiguous characteristics of competencies research involving 224 executives in 17 organizations provides valuable insights into the relationships between causal ambiguity and firm performance a model is then developed based on these findings particular consideration is given to the differing ways top and middle managers in a firm may experience causal ambiguity and to how these differences may be understood and managed copyright 2001 john wiley sons ltd

how effective is fiscal policy in raising national saving while fiscal adjustment is commonly viewed as the cornerstone of macroeconomic stabilization the effectiveness of alternative fiscal instruments in raising national saving is still poorly understood this paper enters the debate by estimating a private consumption function that allows for two types of agents finite horizons and liquidity constraints and nests three different consumption hypotheses using a large panel data set that includes both industrial and developing countries we reject full ricardian equivalence we also find substantial differences between industrial and developing countries regarding both the extent of ricardian offsetting and the degree to which the government budget constraint is internalized

an enlarged definition of cointegration abstract a broader definition of cointegration is presented allowing for different orders in the original process as a result different cointegration vectors may be generated from a given one however if the cointegrated process is stationary then the standard ideas and methods may still apply

fiscal policy profits and investment this paper evaluates the effects of fiscal policy on investment using a panel of oecd countries we find a sizeable negative effect of public spending and in particular of its wage component on profits and on business investment this result is consistent with different theoretical models in which government employment creates wage pressure for the private sector various types of taxes also have negative effects on profits but interestingly the effects of government spending on investment are larger than those of taxes our results can explain the so called non keynesian i e expansionary effects of fiscal adjustments jel e22 e62

trigger points and budget cuts explaining the effects of fiscal austerity we propose and solve an optimizing model which explains counterintuitive effects of fiscal policy in terms of expectations if government spending follows an upward trending stochastic process which the public believes may fall sharply when it reaches specific trigger points then optimizing consumption behavior and simple budget constraint arithmetic imply a nonlinear relationship between private consumption and government spending this theoretical relation is consistent with the experience of several countries jel e62 e21 textbook aggregate demand models suggest simple relationships between the government budget and economic activity a cut in the government deficit for example depressing consumption and output though such models heavily influence the design of stabilization policies their micro foundations are unclear and their sharp predictions are not always consistent with reality in many countries large cuts in government spending carried out as part of stabilization programs have led to expansions rather than contractions in economic activity the absence of simple relationships be

fiscal crises and aggregate demand can high public debt reverse the effects of fiscal policy abstract this paper shows how the power of fiscal policy to affect consumption can vary depending on the level of public debt at moderate levels of debt fiscal policy has the traditional keynesian effects current generations of consumers discount future taxes because they may not be alive when taxes are raised or there will be a larger population available to pay the taxes but when debt reaches extreme values current generations of consumers know there is a high probability that they will have to pay extra taxes a fiscal deficit can have a contractionary effect in these situations

non linear budgetary policies evidence from 150 years of italian public finance we investigate the sustainability of italy s public nances from 1862 to 2012 adopting a non linear perspective speci cally we employ the smooth transition regression approach to explore the scope for non linear scal adjustments of primary surpluses in response to the accumulation of debt the empirical results show the occurrence of a signi cantly positive reaction of primary surpluses to debt when the debt gdp ratio exceeded the trigger value of 110 percent the afterthreshold positive response implies that the path of italy s scal policy is su ciently consistent with the intertemporal budget constraint

what are the effects of fiscal policy shocks we propose and apply a new approach for analyzing the effects of fiscal policy using vector autoregressions specifically we use sign restrictions to identify a government revenue shock as well as a government spending shock while controlling for a generic business cycle shock and a monetary policy shock we explicitly allow for the possibility of announcement effects i e that a current fiscal policy shock changes fiscal policy variables in the future but not at present we construct the impulse responses to three linear combinations of these fiscal shocks corresponding to the three scenarios of deficit spending deficit financed tax cuts and a balanced budget spending expansion we apply the method to us quarterly data from 1955 to 2000 we find that deficit financed tax cuts work best among these three scenarios to improve gdp with a maximal present value multiplier of five dollars of total additional gdp per each dollar of the total cut in government revenue 5 years after the shock copyright 2009 john wiley sons ltd

searching for threshold effects in the evolution of budget deficits an application to the spanish case abstract in this paper we use recent developments on threshold autoregressive tar models that allow us to derive endogenously threshold effects in the evolution of the spanish budget deficit specifically a mean reverting dynamic behaviour of the budget deficit should be expected once such threshold is reached

a unified systems perspective of family firm performance an extension and integration abstract this commentary discusses how by substituting value creation for wealth creation as the defining function of family businesses we can further extend and integrate the theoretical contributions of habbershon et al j bus venturing 2003

nonlinear mean reversion in real exchange rates abstract this paper modifies a unit root test procedure in the nonlinear star framework recently advanced by kapetanios et al journal of econometrics 2001 in press using a detrending methodology suggested by schmidt and phillips oxford bulletin of economics and statistics 54 1992 257 we derive an alternative unit root test and apply it to the bilateral real exchange rates for the g7 countries we find that the use of our test is able to uncover evidence of nonlinear mean reversion for most cases whereas the standard dickey fuller test based on the linear model cannot

the optimal public expenditure financing policy does the level of economic development matter i introduction does the growth effect of public expenditures depend on the way these expenditures are financed over the years a substantial volume of theoretical and empirical research has been directed toward identifying the elements of public expenditure at its aggregated and disaggregated level that bear significant association with economic growth in contrast only a handful of studies have paid particular attention to examine the extent to which the growth effect of public expenditures depends on the method of financing such expenditures e g de gregorio 1993 miller and russek 1997 palivos and yip 1995 the consensus appears to be that the two primary modes of financing income taxation and seigniorage are distortionary opinions however are divided as to their relative merits for example according to palivos and yip 1995 income tax financing is more detrimental to growth than seigniorage financing at the same time de gregorio 1993 suggests that as long as the rate of return on indexed bonds is substantially responsive to changes in the rate of inflation seigniorage financing of public expenditure is more growth reducing pecorino 1997 on the other hand prescribes a mix of both modes of financing despite these differences the above mentioned studies share a common characteristic the optimal mode of financing public expenditure in these studies is viewed as being not contingent on the stages of economic development accordingly there remains little understanding of the process by which public expenditure financing policies shape the prospect of economic growth for developing vis a vis developed countries the primary objective of this paper is to bridge this gap in the existing literature it is a long standing belief among development experts that outcomes of public expenditures and revenue policies are conditional on the state of an economy recent evidence supports such belief for example miller and russek 1997 suggest that for developing countries a deficit financed increase in public expenditure retards economic growth and a tax financed increase leads to higher growth for developed countries a deficit financed increase in government expenditure does not affect economic growth and a tax financed increase leads to a lower growth in light of these findings and in light of the theoretical controversy about the relative merits of seigniorage versus tax finance it is meaningful to ask the following question does the relative merit of seigniorage vis a vis tax financing of public expenditure depend on the stage of economic development this paper seeks an answer to this question using both theoretical and empirical analyses the theoretical framework developed in this paper shares many of the characteristics of the models proposed by espinosa vega and yip 1999 2000 and schreft and smith 1997 in particular we consider a two period overlapping generations model where agents are subjected to stochastic relocations shocks which act like shocks to their portfolio preferences these shocks have the same consequence as liquidity preference shocks as in diamond and dybvig 1983 and create a role for financial intermediaries who take deposits and make a portfolio decision on behalf of the households in addition there is a government that relies on two alternative sources of revenue seigniorage and tax revenue to finance its exogenously given expenditure sequence the results that we derive are shaped by the portfolio decision of the financial intermediaries in particular at each point in time financial intermediaries are required to allocate their portfolios between a nonproductive liquid asset money and a productive illiquid asset the illiquid asset takes the form of financing risky investment projects which in turn generate productive capital stock for the economy the financial intermediaries optimal portfolio allocation rules depend on the relative rate of return of the two available assets

fiscal policy in general equilibrium this paper studies four classic fiscal policy experiments within a quantitatively restricted neoclassical model the authors main findings are as follows 1 permanent changes in government purchases can lead to short run and long run output multipliers that exceed one 2 permanent changes in government purchases induce larger effects than temporary changes 3 the financing decision is quantitatively more important than the resource cost of changes in government purchases and 4 public investment has dramatic effects on private output and investment these findings stem from important dynamic interactions of capital and labor absent in earlier equilibrium analyses of fiscal policy copyright 1993 by american economic association

tax multipliers pitfalls in measurement and identification abstract to analyze the pitfalls in measuring and identifying tax shocks we build a novel value added tax rate dataset for the period 1980 2009 the problem of identification i e changes in tax policy not triggered by output fluctuations is clearly disentangled from the problem of measurement i e finding a tax policy variable under the direct control of policymakers on the identification front our results favor the use of narratives a la romer and romer 2010 on the measurement front our findings support the use of tax rates as the true measure of tax policy as opposed to revenue based measures such as cyclically adjusted revenues

fiscal policy in good times and bad in the 1980s several countries with large government debt or deficit implemented substantial and in some cases drastic deficit cuts contrary to widespread expectations in many cases private consumption boomed rather than contracted this paper shows that in times of fiscal stress shocks to government revenues and especially expenditure have very different effects on private consumption than in normal times

debt ceiling and fiscal sustainability in brazil a quantile autoregression approach abstract in this paper we investigate fiscal sustainability by using a quantile autoregression qar model we propose a novel methodology to separate periods of nonstationarity from stationary ones allowing us to identify various trajectories of public debt that are compatible with fiscal sustainability we use such trajectories to construct a debt ceiling that is the largest value of public debt that does not jeopardize long run fiscal sustainability we make an out of sample forecast of such a ceiling and show how it could be used by policy makers interested in keeping the public debt on a sustainable path we illustrate the applicability of our results using brazilian data

studying the role of political competition in the evolution of government size over long horizons here we argue for the use of cointegration and error correction analysis to combine economic factors that are nonstationary with political factors that are stationary into an empirical model of the evolution of public policy over long periods the approach is applied to disentangle the contributions of economics and politics to the evolution of public expenditure by the government of canada over 130 years political competition emerges as the primary political factor affecting government size

fiscal readjustments in the united states a nonlinear time series analysis we analyze the fiscal adjustment process in the united states using a multivariate threshold vector error regression model the shift from single equation to multivariate setting adds value both in terms of our economic understanding of the fiscal adjustment process and the forecasting performance of nonlinear models we find evidence that fiscal authorities intervene to reduce real per capita deficit only when it reaches a certain threshold and that fiscal adjustment takes place primarily by cutting government expenditure the results of out of sample density forecast and probability forecasts suggest that a shift from a univariate autoregressive model to a multivariate model improves forecast performance

the behavior of us public debt a nonlinear perspective abstract this letter provides strong evidence of nonlinear mean reversion in the us debt gdp ratio using data since 1916 and shows that the difficulty to detect mean reversion encountered by a number of researchers may be due to the invalid maintained hypothesis of linearity which is common to the testing procedures employed in this context

sector specific minimum wages economic growth and some policy implications abstract economic growth is introduced in the urban unemployment model of harris and todaro it is shown that in the steady state the optimal savings ratio is greater than the golden rule savings ratio under full employment also the optimal proportion of total investment allocated to the urban sector is not necessarily higher than the optimal proportion under full employment

optimal trade policies for a small open economoy this paper investigates optimal trade policies for a small open economy with unemployment when factor prices are rigid random foreign prices result in random unemployment of resources the ranking of second best policies is investigated if the marginal propensity to consume the importable is positive and nonincreasing in income the optimal composite tariff dominates the optimal target price which in turn dominates the optimal quota copyright 1993 by the london school of economics and political science

threshold effects in the u s budget deficit i introduction there has been an ongoing debate on whether the u s fiscal policy is sustainable in the long run in addressing this issue a number of studies have examined whether the u s public finances are compatible with the government s intertemporal solvency constraint hamilton and flavin 1986 trehan and walsh 1988 hakkio and rush 1991 among others the requirement of budget processes to be sustainable implies effectively that ponzi games are ruled out as a viable option of government finance in other words further new borrowing cannot be used indefinitely as a method of financing interest payments on existing debt therefore the solvency constraint requires that any changes in taxes and government spending are followed by adjustment in future taxation and or spending that equals to the original change in present value this solvency constraint imposes testable restrictions on the time series properties of key fiscal aggregates in this article we present new evidence on this ongoing solvency debate utilizing an empirical framework that allows us to test whether there have been threshold effects in the u s deficit unlike existing empirical studies that focus only on the identification of regime shifts in u s fiscal policy we also offer an explanation and provide evidence as to why these regime shifts might occur specifically we argue that for fiscal authorities to be able to meet the solvency constraint they would intervene through deficit cuts only when the government budget deficit becomes very large therefore we expect a mean reverting dynamic behavior for deficits only when they are above some threshold value we test for this hypothesis using the threshold unit root empirical methodology recently developed by caner and hansen 2001 the article is organized as follows section ii reviews the empirical evidence section iii describes the empirical methodology and section iv presents the empirical results which are analyzed and interpreted section v summarizes and concludes ii intertemporal solvency condition empirical underpinnings one strand of the empirical literature focuses on the stationarity of the stock of public debt uctum and wickens 1997 deal with stochastic interest rates and primary surpluses that are allowed to be either exogenous or endogenous to the stock of public debt they show that a necessary and sufficient condition for the intertemporal solvency condition to hold is a stationary discounted stock of public debt another strand of the empirical literature has concentrated on the dynamics of the undiscounted inclusive of interest deficit or alternatively on the long run relationship between government spending and tax revenues trehan and walsh 1988 show that government spending inclusive of interest payments and government revenues should be cointegrated with a cointegrating vector equal to 1 1 they present evidence that supports this restriction hakkio and rush 1991 point out that a necessary condition for intertemporal solvency is the existence of cointegration between government expenditure inclusive of interest payments and government revenues with a cointegrating vector equal to 1 beta and 0 quintos 1995 expands on hakkio and rush 1991 and shows that cointegration is not necessary for the intertemporal balance condition to hold specifically she distinguishes between a weak and a strong sustainability condition the former implies that the government solvency holds but the undiscounted debt process is exploding at a rate that is less than the growth rate of the economy although this case is consistent with deficit sustainability it is inconsistent with the ability of the government to market its debt in the long run especially if the focus is on the debt to gross national product gnp or on the debt per capita see also hakkio and rush 1991 in contrast strong sustainability implies that the undiscounted public debt is finite in the long run