irving fisher on the international transmission of booms and depressions through monetary standards the role of monetary standards in the international transmission of economic fluctuations particularly the role of the gold standard in the depression has attracted considerable recent attention for instance from choudhri and kochin 1980 hamilton 1988 temin 1989 1993 eichengreen 1992 and bernanke 1995 however this literature has overlooked a pioneering precursor irving fisher are booms and depressions transmitted internationally through monetary standards 1935 which has also been neglected in the literature on fisher i examine fisher s contribution in the context of later research on the topic and explore the place of fisher 1935 in fisher s work

bank runs in open economies and the international transmission of panics abstract in this paper we extend the bank run literature to an open economy model we show that a foreign banking system by raising deposit rates in the presence of a domestic banking panic may generate sufficient liquid resources to acquire assets sold by the domestic banking system at bargain prices in this case foreign depositors will benefit from the domestic panic we also show that our simple model is able to generate the spreading of panics perhaps not surprisingly the crucial element in determining the propagation of financial crises is the effect of interest rates on savings decisions

transmission of the great depression to a first approximation the question of how the great depression spread from country to country is short and straightforward fixed exchange rates under the gold standard transmitted negative demand shocks the first half of this paper consequently will describe current thinking about the relationship between the gold standard and the great depression the second half of the paper will look at a phenomenon not included in this first approximation financial crises many have noted that banking panics and currency crises are bad for national economies but few have tried to model their international spread

determinants of world demand for u s corn seeds the role of trade costs the united states is a large net exporter of corn seeds seed trade including corn has been expanding but its determinants are not well understood this paper econometrically investigates the determinants of world demand for u s corn seeds with a detailed analysis of trade costs impeding exports flows to various markets trade costs include costs associated with distance tariffs and sanitary phytosanitary sps regulations imposed by foreign countries on u s corn seed exports sps policy information comes from the excerpt data base of usda aphis the analysis relies on a gravity like model based on an explicit specification of derived demand for seed by foreign corn producers a sps count variable is incorporated as a shifter in the unit cost of seeds faced by foreign users we use data from 48 countries and for the years 1989 to 2004 we find that all trade costs matter and have had a negative impact on u s corn seed exports tariffs matter most followed by sps measures and distance an extensive econometric investigation reveals that qualitative results are robust to specification changes but that sample selection bias is present in log linear specifications based on seed export levels and approximating zero trade data with a small positive number

two who called the great depression an initial formulation of the monetary origins view the consensus view in the economics profession today is that the genesis of the great depression was the tightening of policy by the fed in 1928 and 1929 mainly to stem the stock market boom nevertheless monetary historians have not provided evidence that any economist writing prior to the stock market crash of october 1929 foresaw that the fed s actions would lead to a major depression this paper shows that two economists william foster and waddill catchings co authored a paper in july 1929 containing arguments strikingly similar to the present consensus view their critique of fed policy supports the view that the genesis of the great depression had monetary origins and was preventable

tariff equivalent and forgone trade effects of prohibitive technical barriers to trade we derive a method to econometrically estimate the tariff equivalent and forgone trade effects of a prohibitive technical barrier to trade tbt based on wales and woodland s kuhn tucker approach to corner solutions in consumer choice the method overcomes the lack of observed data on bilateral trade flows and accounts for differentiated goods by place of origin we apply the derived random utility model to international trade in apples to identify the tariff equivalent of prohibitive phytosanitary barriers imposed by australia on potential imports of new zealand apples we estimate the forgone apple trade between the two countries the implied trade injury imposed by australia on new zealand and the welfare loss to australia the removal of the australian policy would induce net welfare gains around us 50 million annually for australia copyright 2009 oxford university press

the impact of regulatory heterogeneity on agri food trade we estimate the impact of regulatory heterogeneity on agri food trade using a gravity analysis that relies on detailed data on non tariff measures ntms collected by the ntm impact project the data cover a broad range of import requirements for agricultural and food products for the eu and nine of its major trade partners we find that trade is significantly reduced when importing countries have stricter maximum residue limits mrls for plant products than exporting countries for most other measures due to their qualitative nature we were unable to infer whether the importer has stricter standards relative to the exporter and we do not find a robust relationship between these measures and trade our findings suggest that at least for some import standards harmonising regulations will increase trade we also conclude that tariff reductions remain an effective means to increase trade even when ntms abound

regulation and the theory of legislative choice the interstate commerce act of 1887 this article concerns the economic incidence of the interstate commerce act of 1887 ica our focus is the short haul pricing constraint a provision of the ica that prohibited railroads from charging higher rates to isolated primarily agrarian shippers than it charged to intercity shippers of similar commodities utilizing the event study methodology we find that the impending passage of the ica generated a distribution of abnormal returns to railroads and shipping firms that is consistent with the theoretical implications of our analysis of the short haul pricing constraint shpc however early interpretations of the shpc by the interstate commerce commission reduced some of the abnormal returns to railroads in a manner that is inconsistent with the hypothesis that the short haul pricing constraint was an important mechanism of early railroad regulation the analysis does support a multiple interest interpretation of the interstate commerce act and has implications for the positive theory of regulation

the economics of worldwide stagflation the last fifteen years have witnessed dramatic changes in economics not only in the manner in which the economics profession views economics but also in the manner in which the general public views economics and economists by the late 1960 s there had emerged more or less a consensus macroeconomic framework that is an agreed upon structure to be used to study economic problems at the aggregate level robert solow stated as quoted in leijonhufvud 1968

how important are tariffs and nontariff barriers in international markets for fresh fruit international markets for agricultural products are often subject to a range of trade barriers and horticultural products are no exception this article examines the economic implications of tariffs and sanitary and phytosanitary sps regulations that are applied to global markets for fresh apples and fresh oranges we calculate regional level tariff rates and ad valorem equivalents for sps barriers following the price wedge approach a simulation model is developed and used to assess the price quantity and welfare implications of reducing tariffs removing sps barriers and removing sps barriers that have been identified as a specific trade concern stc by the world trade organization results suggest that a 36 reduction in global tariffs would lead to greater welfare gains than would the elimination of sps measures in apple markets however in orange markets we find that sps measures have much larger economic implications for producers and consumers here a 36 reduction in tariffs would lead to smaller overall welfare effects compared to removal of all sps measures and only slightly larger effects than those from removal of stcs alone

the impact of regulations on agricultural trade evidence from the sps and tbt agreements according to world trade organization rules countries may adopt regulations under the agreements on sanitary and phyto sanitary sps and technical barriers to trade tbt we analyze the structure of these measures in agricultural trade the inventory approach suggests that european countries have among the lowest coverage ratios of all oecd countries using a gravity equation we also estimate their stringency our results suggest that they significantly reduce developing countries exports to oecd countries but do not affect trade between oecd members furthermore european imports are more negatively influenced by sps and tbts than imports of other oecd countries

could stable money have averted the great contraction i introduction although over fifty years have elapsed since the onset of the great contraction controversy still swirls about the factors responsible for its depth and long duration a basic issue is the hypothesis due to friedman and schwartz 1963 that the great contraction would have been attenuated had the federal reserve not allowed the money stock to decline although the validity of the hypothesis has been a subject of much debate there is little empirical evidence directly addressing it a direct test of the friedman and schwartz hypothesis requires simulating the behavior of output under a counterfactual policy of stable money that approach was adopted by warburton 1966 friedman 1960 and modigliani 1969 none of whom constructed a model of the economy on the basis of which to conduct his test recently mccallum 1990 has used simulations from a macro model to show that his base rule with feedback would have avoided the severe decline in nominal income that occurred between 1929 and 1933 1 the extent to which his rule would have improved the behavior of nominal income depends on the value of the feedback coefficient mccallum s simulations however do not address the issue considered here of how a stable money rule would have performed in this paper we present simulations that focus on the stable money counterfactual our model is based on mccallum s but we use a more general framework than his that a estimates separate relations for output and the price level and b places no prior restrictions on the feedback from output and the price level to money our stable money counterfactual does not change the long term rate of money growth from that actually experienced and thus involves only short run changes in the behavior of the money supply we assume that dynamics embedded in the output and price relation are not especially sensitive to this type of policy change we simulate two variants of milton friedman s 1960 constant money growth rule the first a strong form of the rule assumes that the fed could quickly offset changes in the money multiplier by changes in high powered money and thus keep the money stock on the constant growth rate path in each quarter the second a weaker form of the rule assumes that the money multiplier is observed with a one quarter lag and the fed can only set the expected rate of growth of money conditional on last period information equal to the constant rate our basic simulation is derived from a model estimated for the 1921 1 1941 4 interwar period the results of this simulation buttress the views of friedman and schwartz had a constant money growth rule with an annual rate equal to the average 1921 41 rate of 2 95 percent been followed throughout the interwar period the great contraction would have been avoided real output would have declined from 1929 3 to 1933 1 but the order of magnitude of the cumulative change 11 1 to 21 6 percent and the annual rate of change 3 3 to 6 6 percent when the actual cumulative change was 36 2 percent and the annual rate of change was 12 1 percent would have been comparable to other recessions in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries in the basic simulation we assume that the output and price relations remained stable over the entire interwar period the extraordinary economic conditions of the great contraction could have arguably shifted the output and price relations thus we also present an alternative simulation that uses estimates of these relations based on the 1920s data this simulation shows that a constant money growth rule with an annual rate equal to the 1921 29 average of 3 29 percent would have prevented even a mild recession during the great contraction period section ii contains a brief survey of the continuing debate over the cause and propagation mechanism of the great contraction and its implications for the stable money hypothesis

lessons from the 1930s great depression this paper provides a survey of the great depression comprising both a narrative account and a detailed review of the empirical evidence focusing especially on the experience of the united states we examine the reasons for and flawed resolution of the american banking crisis as well as the conduct of fiscal and monetary policy we also consider the pivotal role of the gold standard in the international transmission of the slump and leaving gold as a route to recovery policy lessons for today from the great depression are discussed as are some implications for macroeconomics

international aspects of the great depression and the crisis of 2007 similarities differences and lessons we focus on two international aspects of the great depression financial crises and international trade and try to discern lessons for the current economic crisis both downturns featured global banking crises which were generated by boom slump macroeconomic cycles during both crises world trade collapsed faster than world incomes and the trade decline was highly synchronized across countries during the depression income losses and rises in trade barriers explain trade s collapse owing to vertical specialization and more intense trade in durables today s trade collapse is due to uncertainty and small shocks to trade costs hitting international supply chains so far the global economy has avoided the global trade wars and banking collapses of the depression perhaps owing to improved policy even so the global economy remains susceptible to large shocks owing to financial innovation and technological

the demand to regulate franchise monopoly evidence from catv rate deregulation in california the demand to regulate franchise monopoly evidence from catv rate deregulation in california the motivation to price control a franchise monopoly is examined in the context of three distinct economic views of regulatory behavior these views are tested against data from the california cable television market over the years 1980 85 during which a subset of monopoly firms converted from regulated to unregulated pricing for basic cable service as the price constraints of regulation appear to be insignificant in a welfare analysis the demand for such controls by municipalities is derived from their utility in enforcing vote maximizing transfer schemes a peltzmanian political outcome with a stiglerian economic welfare result i introduction since the pathbreaking inquiry by stigler and friedland 1962 it has been fair game for economists to investigate how the publicly stated goals of regulation square with the observed economic results whereas empirical research has often revealed a surprisingly low correlation theoretical models of political behavior have been developed to explain how regulators would rationally attempt to maximize political strength and hence personal utility by pursuing a support maximizing transfer scheme how far such incentive structures for regulators go toward enhancing consumer welfare is the primary concern of public policy analysis by economists indeed the study of regulatory results has yielded new insights into the antecedent demand for regulation when publicly announced goals are not achieved economists are often tempted to attribute the discrepancy not to random error but to a strategic desire to mask intended transfer schemes hence results of regulation can shed light on the motives for regulation this paper inquires into the motivations for municipal regulation of the cable television market part ii sets three previously developed views of regulatory behavior into a unified framework and reviews previous research on price regulation in the electric utility industry part iii describes an efficiency test for cable rate regulation in california in a sector dominated by municipally assigned franchise monopolies price and output effects of regulation are likely to be most dramatic and hence most informative moreover cable s changing regulatory regime offers grist for analysis in part iv i examine evidence from the 1979 partial deregulation of catv in california and draw inferences regarding the demand to regulate cable franchises in part v my conclusions appear in part vi ii regulatory behavior at least three alternative models of regulatory behavior have been advanced in the literature looking at the world in the peltzman 1976 sense politicians regulators are seen as engaging in two dimensional support maximization in that redistributing income by whatever institutional method necessarily involves losers as well as winners some competitive equilibrium of transfers will be achieved by maximizing political actors see figure 1 panel a as a rule regulators will transfer wealth from consumers and towards the regulated industry just up to the point at which the marginal industry support gained is equal to the marginal consumer support lost fortuitously peltzman s paradigmatic political regulatory decision focuses upon the correlation between output price and profits of a regulated public utility seen in the profit hill in panel a of figure 1 and the trade off faced specifically by the regulatory agent in gaining support from one constituency at the cost of support from another as in the u sup p indifference curve in figure 1 this framework dovetails with the discussion of price regulation in cable to follow peltzman saw the regulator as a public policy auctioneer garnering maximum political support from both consumers and producers in establishing an optimal regulated price

measuring protection mission impossible abstract there seems to be some confusion between openness and protection measures in the international trade literature the aim of this paper is to bring together the state of the art in quantifying trade policy measures and for this reason we focus on the extent of the protection granted by policies rather than on the degree of openness of the economy given the considerable amount of literature that deals with these issues we will limit our review as follows on the one hand we focus on trade policies implemented at the border and therefore do not consider all the other possible public interventions influencing trade flows on the other hand we only take into account indexes that explicitly adopt a metric expressed in a scalar aggregate tariff and quota equivalent measures or an index in a closed interval we distinguish between indexes that aggregate across products same barrier for more products and indexes that aggregate across instruments more barriers for the same product finally in order to classify the large number of indexes covered in our review we propose a typology based on three categories incidence outcome and equivalence

demand pricing and regulation evidence from the cable tv industry subsequent to the nationwide deregulation of the cable tv industry a number of questions have been raised concerning the conduct of cable firms answers to these questions turn upon a fundamental set of issues regarding the economic relationships of demand pricing and regulation in this article we empirically examine these relationships for the period prior to deregulation a number of basic findings emerge among these we find that the demand for basic cable service ranges from being generally inelastic in rural areas to elastic in large urban markets the elasticity of demand for pay cable services is typically well in excess of unity also while regulation did not lead to economically efficient marginal cost prices for basic cable service it did act to keep prices below monopoly levels moreover our examination reveals some significant differences in the effectiveness of the various types of regulation practiced in the pre deregulation period

debt deflation theory and evidence abstract in the early 1990s the most severe recessions occurred in those countries which had experienced the largest increases in private debt burdens was this an accident of history or did it reflect deeper forces affecting market economies the paper comprises three parts first it presents three stylised facts about debt and its impact on consumption growth in the 1930s and the 1990s second it discusses the reception of irving fisher s work on debt deflation by his contemporaries and argues that it is helpful to think of debt deflation as a real business cycle phenomenon third there is a theoretical discussion of the reaction of debt and consumption to shocks in the context of a model of precautionary saving central to the model is the role of distributional shocks which implies that aggregate demand may be a nonmonotonic function of the price of assets in terms of the consumption good multiple equilibria may exist leading to the possibility of financial instability the analysis of debt deflation requires the construction of real business cycle models without a representative consumer

looking beyond national boundaries regional harmonization of seed policies laws and regulations countries in west eastern and southern africa are pursuing the regional harmonization of their seed laws and regulations common regulatory frameworks are expected to reduce the costs of trading seed and encourage scale economies in seed production as a result commercial seed production is expected to expand providing farmers with improved access to new varieties and stimulating productivity growth the impact of these harmonization efforts will depend on the details of the regulatory agreements policy makers are being asked to consider a complicated series of trade offs between stricter measures for quality control and the need to encourage the multiplication and distribution of lower cost seed they are also being confronted with two possible views of sectoral development one view entails the pursuit of better linkages between distinct national seed markets the second involves the development of truly regionalized seed markets where seed can be readily produced in one country and sold in any other country this implies greater regional interdependence of seed supply the paper compares the harmonization agreements being pursued in each of the three african regions and progress in implementing the accords efforts to adapt international seed market standards to the contingencies of african markets are discussed and priorities for further policy analysis are identified

business cycle co movement evidence from the great depression abstract recent analysis focuses on the gold standard as a channel for the transmission of the great depression trade linkages which loom large in the recent literature play a smaller role both the gold standard and trade were associated with higher co movement at the bilateral level during the entire interwar period we document that fixed exchange rates and trade made a comeback after 1932 but co movement declined the fall after 1932 appears to be driven by the rise of smaller blocs based on monetary and trade cooperation and an accompanying fall in co movement between blocs

the rationality of u s regulation of the broadcast spectrum in his classic 1983 technologies of freedom ithiel de sola pool so elucidated the prevailing wisdom concerning broadcast licensure in the united states while the key legal questions surrounding this institution involve important first amendment questions hence pool s scarcity analogy to paper ink and presses economists and other policy analysts have often remarked on the more general incongruity in federal licensing while spectrum is regulated on the physical scarcity premise it is awarded to private users on a no fee basis thus conferring significant economic rents on private parties at substantial opportunity cost to the fisc moreover federal communications commission fcc 2 policies have openly sought virtually throughout the agency s entire life span to restrict broadcast licenses and competition for broadcasters particularly cable television to far below the quantity technically available 3 the

nominal wage stickiness and aggregate supply in the great depression building on earlier work by eichengreen and sachs we use data for 22 countries to study the role of wage stickiness in propagating the great depression recent research suggests that monetary shocks transmitted internationally by the gold standard were a major cause of the depression accordingly we use money supplies and other aggregate demand shifters as instruments to identify aggregate supply relationships we find that nominal wages adjusted quite slowly to falling prices and that the resulting increases in real wages depressed output these findings leave open the question of why wages were so inertial in the face of extreme labor market conditions

the impact of sanitary and phytosanitary measures on market entry and trade flows in an attempt to disentangle the impact of sanitary and phytosanitary sps measures on trade patterns we estimate a heckman selection model on the hs4 disaggregated level of trade we find that aggregated sps measures constitute barriers to agricultural and food trade consistently to all exporters but conditional on market entry trade flows are positively affected by sps measures additionally we find that sps measures related to conformity assessment hamper market entry and trade flows while sps measures related to product characteristics pose an entry barrier but increase bilateral trade flows conditional on meeting the standard

evaluating the trade restrictiveness of phytosanitary measures on u s fresh fruit and vegetable imports empirically assessing sanitary and phytosanitary regulations has proven difficult because most data sources indicate whether a regulation exists but provide no information on the type or importance of the respective measure in this article we construct a novel database of u s phytosanitary measures and match these to 47 fresh fruit and vegetable product imports from 89 exporting countries over the period 1996 2008 a product line gravity equation that accounts for zero trade flows is developed to investigate the trade impact of different pest mitigation measures while the results suggest that phytosanitary treatments generally reduce trade the actual restrictiveness of these measures diminishes dramatically as exporters accumulate experience and it vanishes when exporters reach a certain threshold the results have important policy implications considering the number of empirical studies that find a negative impact of non tariff measures on trade copyright 2013 oxford university press

deriving conditional and unconditional marginal effects in log earnings equations estimated by heckman s procedure although the heckman approach has often been used in empirical analysis the marginal effects necessary to interpret the effect of the regressors on the dependent variable appeared to be overlooked using the heckman approach general expressions are derived for calculating the conditional and unconditional marginal effects based on a sample of brazilian women the conditional and unconditional return to education are calculated for the logarithm of earnings equation estimated by heckman s procedure comparing them to the marginal effect of education obtained without correcting for selectivity bias the same analysis is carried out for a discrete variable black

a theory of competition among pressure groups for political influence this paper presents a theory of competition among pressure groups for political influence political equilibrium depends on the efficiency of each group in producing pressure the effect of additional pressure on their influence the number of persons in different groups and the deadweight cost of taxes and subsidies an increase in deadweight costs discourages pressure by subsidized groups and encourages pressure by taxpayers this analysis unifies the view that governments correct market failures with the view that they favor the politically powerful both are produced by the competition for political favors

tariff equivalent of technical barriers to trade with imperfect substitution and trade costs the price wedge method yields a tariff equivalent estimate of technical barriers to trade tbt an extension of this method accounts for imperfect substitution between domestic and imported goods and incorporates recent findings on trade costs we explore the sensitivity of this revamped tbt estimate to its key determinants substitution elasticity preference for home good and trade cost we use the augmented approach to investigate the recent japan u s apple trade dispute and find that removing the japanese tbt would yield limited export gains to the united states we then draw policy implications of our findings

monetary factors in the great depression this paper examines the role of monetary policy in the early stages of the great depression and considers the mechanism whereby this policy may have affected real activity i conclude that the depression was preceded by a dramatic shift towards a highly contractionary monetary policy the economic impact of this policy seems unlikely to have come through the conventional keynesian channels of a shortage of liquidity and high ex ante real interest rates but instead may have operated through unanticipated deflation and after 1930 through the disruption of financial intermediation as a consequence of the banking panics

competitive devaluation and the great depression a theoretical reassessment abstract historical accounts indict the devaluations of the 1930s for worsening the great depression to assess the consistency of these arguments we develop a two country model of the gold exchange standard its analysis reveals that devaluation under a gold standard need not be beggar thy neighbor contrary to the thrust of the existing literature competitive devaluations like those of the 1930s could have hastened recovery from the great depression