natural resource prices will they ever turn up abstract natural resource theory predicts that natural resource rents should increase over time however technical progress in resource extraction environmental constraints or great natural abundance could result in stagnant or declining product prices thus there is no theoretical reason to believe that product prices will rise in the near future the prediction of product prices by time series methods is shown to depend critically upon whether the series are modeled as difference or trend stationary dickey fuller and lagrange multiplier tests are used to show that the series are difference stationary long and short sample series are tested trend stationary modeling strongly predicts rising resource prices the result from difference stationary modeling is that there is only a weak supposition that natural resource prices will rise

reform of the coal sector in an open economy the case of china cheap abundant and easy to transport and store coal has been produced and consumed to meet people s energy needs the last decade s growth in global coal use has been driven mainly by developing economies like china whose phenomenal economic growth has been powered by coal fired electricity and promoted by the export of manufactured goods a recent reform focus in china s coal sector is on coal taxation the paper develops a game theoretic model tailored to the context of china where coal taxation reform takes place against the background of privatisation of coal firms and an open economy it finds that the adoption of special coal taxes is optimal for social welfare under most circumstances but may induce coal firms to commit opportunistic behaviour in the process of privatisation the paper also cautions about potential resistance to the reform from consumers coal firms and government officials

on the portents of peak oil and other indicators of resource scarcity economists have studied various indicators of resource scarcity but largely ignored the phenomenon of peaking due to its connection to non economic physical theories of resource exhaustion i consider peaking from the economic point of view where economic forces determine the shape of the equilibrium extraction path within that framework i ask whether the timing of peak production reveals anything useful about scarcity i find peaking to be an ambiguous indicator if someone announced the peak would arrive earlier than expected and you believed them you would not know whether the news was good or bad however i also show that the traditional economic indicators of resource scarcity price cost and rent fare no better and argue that previous studies have misconstrued the connection between changes in underlying scarcity and movements in these traditional indicators

the supply of non renewable resources there exists no formal treatment of non renewable resource nrr supply systematically deriving quantity as function of price we establish instantaneous restricted fixed reserves and unrestricted nrr supply functions the supply of a nrr at any date and location not only depends on the local contemporary price of the resource but also on prices at all other dates and locations besides the usual law of supply which characterizes the own price effect cross price effects have their own law they can be decomposed into a substitution effect and a stock compensation effect we show that the substitution effect always dominates a price increase at some point in space and time causes nrr supply to decrease at all other points this new but orthodox supply setting extends to nrrs the partial equilibrium analysis of demand and supply policies thereby it provides a generalization of many results about policy induced changes on nrr markets the properties of restricted and unrestricted supply functions are characterized for hotelling homogeneous as well as ricardian non homogeneous reserves for a single deposit as well as for several deposits that endogenously come into production or cease to be active

oil exploration under climate treaties abstract in this paper we focus on how an international climate treaty will influence the exploration of oil in non opec countries we present a numerical intertemporal global equilibrium model for the fossil fuel markets the international oil market is modelled with a cartel opec and a competitive fringe on the supply side following a nash cournot approach an initial resource base for oil is given in the non opec region however the resource base changes over time due to depletion exploration and discovery when studying the effects of different climate treaties on oil exploration two contrasting incentives apply if an international carbon tax is introduced the producer price of oil will drop compared to the reference case this gives an incentive to reduce oil production and exploration however the oil price may increase less rapidly over time which gives an incentive to expedite production and exploration in fact in the case of a rising carbon tax we find the last incentive to be the strongest which means that an international climate treaty may increase oil exploration in non opec countries for the coming decades and reduce opec s market share

a dynamic model of cleanup estimating sunk costs in oil and gas production the environmental remediation required to permanently decommission most industrial projects is an expensive irreversible investment real options literature shows that temporary closure has value under uncertainty however even if there is no intention to restart operations there is an incentive to label a closure as temporary to avoid having to remediate ongoing or future environmental externalities i estimate a dynamic discrete choice model of closure under price and quantity uncertainty to evaluate the likelihood of reactivation the model reveals that the option to temporarily close is being widely used to avoid environmental remediation of oil and gas wells in canada

environmental and land use regulation in nonrenewable resource industries implications from the wyoming checkerboard this paper examines how the oil and soning that these effects should be similar gas industry responds to changes in environmental to those of production and property taxes and land use regulations pertaining to drilling by like stollery however they do not conexamining differences in regulatory practices on sider the situation where environmental federal and private land a simulation model for regulations directly affect explo ration and wyoming is used to estimate losses of oil and gas development output over the next 60 years because of higher activities in any case the drilling costs found on federal property the pres limited number of studies in this area and ent value of these losses comes to about 800 mil their narrow scope is surprising in light of lion a lso this case study is of interest because it the importance of environmental complishows that future production is more sensitive to ance costs to firms that produce from nonchanges in environmental regulations that apply to renewable resources and because of the drilling than to changes in severance taxes levied observation by jaffe et al 1995 that a on production

the grey paradox how fossil fuel owners can benefit from carbon taxation abstract this paper considers the distributional impact of optimal carbon taxation on fossil fuel owners a carbon emitting exhaustible resource competes with a dirtier abundant resource and a clean backstop a time dependent carbon tax is set to optimally use these resources under a cap constraint over co 2 atmospheric concentration as the cap is tightened the dirtier resource becomes less competitive compared to the exhaustible resource the competition effect but the timing and duration of extraction of the exhaustible resource is modified the timing effect we provide analytical expressions of these effects and determine conditions over size of reserves pollution contents extraction costs and demand elasticity such that the exhaustible resource owners profits increase as the ceiling is tightened calibrations for the transport and power sectors suggest that the profits of conventional oil and natural gas owners increase compared to a baseline without regulation for plausible carbon ceiling values

commodity price volatility with endogenous natural resources abstract natural resource reserves are exogenous in models of small commodity exporters changes in the stock of reserves play no role in the macroeconomy including in business cycle volatility trade dynamics or exchange rate volatility we consider richer supply dynamics and model exploration and depletion we show that an endogenous supply of reserves is important for capturing the stylised facts associated with commodity price shocks including a commodity currency the crowding out of non commodity activity dutch disease and a volatile business cycle we also consider how exploration and depletion affect the ranking of optimal monetary and taxation policies when natural resource reserves are held fixed monetary policy is an efficient tool for stabilising the effects of commodity price shocks however when exploration and depletion are accounted for using interest rates to stabilise the effects of commodity price changes becomes inefficient using taxes on the resource sector specifically an ad valorem royalty remains efficient

exploration and development of u s oil and gas fields 1955 2002 we study the exploration and development of oil and gas fields in the u s over the period 1955 2002 we make four contributions to explain the economic evolution of the oil and gas industry during this period first we derive a testable model of the dynamics of competitive oil and gas field exploration and development second we show how to empirically distinguish hotelling scarcity effects from effects due to technological change third we test these hypotheses using statewide panel data of exploration and development drilling we find that the time paths of exploration development and total wells drilled are dominated by hotelling scarcity effects finally we offer an explanation for why fixed costs from exploration can make the contracting equilibrium in the mineral rights market efficient

resource characteristics extraction costs and optimal exploitation of mineral resources this paper modifies the traditional theories ofnon renewable resource exploitation where reserve sizeis assumed to be the major determinant of extractioncosts in a competitive model of resourceexploitation characteristics of aggregate reservesare considered as a determinant of extraction cost then dynamic solutions for the price and exploratoryefforts are developed various price paths arefeasible under different assumptions with regard tothe changes in the reserve characteristics over time past empirical research shows that there is noconsistent price path for all materials in fact itis the quality of newly discovered reserves as well astheir size that has affected material prices todemonstrate the complexity of a firm s decision torecover mineral from new deposits potentials forsubstantial high quality marine mineral resources areevaluated as a substitute for land based resources however several factors including the decreasingtrend in marine mining r d expenditures and thepotential impact of large scale marine mining on priceof minerals indicate that mining of mostnon hydrocarbon marine minerals will not take place inthe near future

on the economic determinants of oil production theoretical analysis and empirical evidence for small exporting countries abstract in this paper decisions regarding production in oil exporting countries are studied by means of theoretical analysis and empirical investigation in particular we aim at describing the relationship between oil production levels and changes in the world oil demand and prices intertemporal production decisions by a representative oil producer are modeled by means of a partial equilibrium model in this theoretical model oil producers are subject to exogenous shocks in world oil consumption and prices oil companies can change output levels only by incurring a fixed cost results from the simulation of this model show a strong relationship between oil production and changes in world oil consumption on the contrary the effects of changes in real oil prices on oil production decisions seem to be much lower results from the simulation of the theoretical model are then empirically investigated using time series econometric techniques the empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that oil producing countries are characterized by different responses to changes in world oil demand and in real oil prices for many countries production rapidly adjusts to changes in consumption whereas responses of oil production to innovations in real oil prices are found to be not statistically significant in addition when non linearities in the relationship between world oil demand prices and output levels are allowed for evidence of asymmetric effects of shocks to exogenous variables on output levels is found for some countries

the nature of political services legislative turnover and television we have considered the possibility that the number of new members in a state legislative session may be determined by some other things beside the seats up for election district size and the presence of multimember districts when we do this we call into question crain and goff s conclusion that states with televised legislative sessions constitute a different population but even controlling for other institutional details our empirical work supports their hypotheses apparently television changes the nature of political services makes them more like search goods and may even affect the nature of the returns from being a legislator

extraction costs and the economics of nonrenewable resources the study questions the fundamental assumption of the standard aggregate exploration extraction model of nonrenewable resources that extraction costs and the level of reserves are inversely related it also raises questions about the model s conclusions regarding exploration incentives and the valuation of reserves an empirically tested disaggregate model is presented that suggests that exploration activity occurs from firms attempting to balance marginal extraction plus user costs at the intensive and extensive margins exploration is carried out until the marginal discovery cost of a deposit equals its present asset value and a u shaped price path is indicated

behaviour of non renewable natural resource firms under uncertainty optimizing or ad hoc abstract this paper tests the assumption of optimizing behaviour by natural resource firms in the framework of an intertemporal model of non renewable resource development and production using data from the petroleum industry it is argued that the presence of geological and price uncertainty presents a situation in which standard objections to non optimizing behaviour may not hold as an alternative it is proposed that firms use an ad hoc rule of thumb to update decisions as the values of variables change econometric results support ad hoc behaviour as opposed to intertemporal profit maximization

optimal exploration for and exploitation of heterogeneous mineral deposits abstract we model exploration for and production from a multiple deposit nonrenewable resource exploration is viewed as a bayesian process involving learning about undiscovered reserves and is undertaken both to improve the quality of and to replenish known reserves known reserves are not physically defined but depend on the realizations of discrete episodes of exploration elsewhere and on decisions at each instant about the margin between ore to be mined and low grade material to be rejected the appropriate measure of resource scarcity the sustainable level of the contribution of the resource and the treatment of depletion in the national accounts are considered

does board gender diversity have a financial impact evidence using stock portfolio performance there is growing regulatory pressure on firms worldwide to address the under representation of women in senior positions regulators have taken a variety of approaches to the issue we investigate a jurisdiction that has issued recommendations and disclosure requirements rather than implementing quotas much of the rhetoric surrounding gender diversity centres on whether diversity has a financial impact in this paper we take an aggregate market level approach and compare the performance of portfolios of firms with gender diverse boards to those without we also investigate whether having multiple women on the board is linked to performance and if there is a within industry effect overall we do not find evidence of an association between diversity and performance we find some weak evidence of a negative correlation between having multiple women on the board and performance but that in some industries diversity is positively correlated with performance

the economics of exploration for non renewable resources abstract the literature on exploration for non renewable resources is surveyed following a brief synopsis in section 2 section 3 focuses on issues related to the world market for resources section 4 considers more microeconomic supply related issues linked to the exploration of the small region or play section 5 turns to the small but growing literature on exploration as a learning process related to r d the latter sections pay particular attention to empirical and policy aspects

a model of the operation and development of a national oil company we present a model of the exploration and development activities of a national oil company noc which uses similar technology to a private firm to extract a depletable resource however unlike the private firm the noc may have a wider range of objectives than maximizing the present value of profits specifically we assume an objective function that balances firm profitability against a political desire to favor domestic consumer surplus and domestic employment we find that the non commercial objectives faced by a noc tend to reinforce each other in their effects on profitability the timing of cash flows and employment

much ado about hotelling beware the ides of hubbert abstract much economic literature analyzes the hotelling principal little economic literature analyzes the hubbert curve although much controversy surrounds it this difference in emphasis by economists needs to be reconsidered critically and towards that end we attempt to look at both concepts simultaneously we test whether a simple hubbert curve model is a significant determinant of world oil price changes and whether one of the main determinants of the hotelling principle the discount rate also affects world oil prices an autoregressive distributed lag ardl bound testing approach is used to examine the effects of a hubbert index variable and a hotelling discount rate variable on the world wide price of oil results show the discount rate the most important hotelling variable has little effect on oil prices but that the hubbert curve model does show a large effect on oil prices oil is a non renewable natural resource par excellence yet the results suggest that the hotelling principle is not an important determinant for oil prices yet the hubbert curve and the theory surrounding the hubbert curve is an important determinant of oil prices