spatial competition in the network television industry we present an empirical study of spatial competition and a methodology to estimate demand for products with unobservable characteristics using panel data we estimate a discrete choice model with latent product attributes and unobserved heterogeneous consumer preferences our application of the methodology to the network television industry yields estimates that are consistent with experts views given our estimates we compute nash equilibria of a product location game and find that firms observed strategies such as the degree of product differentiation are generally optimal discrepancies between actual and optimal strategies reflect the networks adherence to rules of thumb and possible bounded rationality behavior copyright 2001 by the rand corporation

individual and aggregate labor supply with coordinated working times i analyze two extensions to the standard model of life cycle labor supply that feature operative choices along both the intensive and extensive margin one assumes that individuals face continuous wage hours schedules while the other assumes that all work must be coordinated across individuals though similar qualitatively the two models have very different implications for aggregate labor supply responses to tax policy in the first model curvature in the individual utility from leisure function plays relatively little role but in the second model it is of first order importance the second model also has important implications for what data are best able to provide evidence on the extent of curvature in the utility from leisure function

on the use of econometric models for policy simulation in marketing abstract in this article the author discusses the properties of useful econometric models for marketing phenomena with particular attention on models for policy simulations the author addresses model diagnostics parameter stability exogeneity and the lucas critique he also presents the results of a search through the 1998 2003 issues of the journal of marketing research finally the author offers practical guidelines

revealed social preferences of dutch political parties we measure the redistributive preferences of dutch political parties using unique detailed information from their election proposals by employing the inverse optimal tax method we calculate the political weights across the income distribution for each political party we find that all dutch political parties give a higher political weight to middle incomes than to the poor moreover the political weights of the rich are close to zero furthermore we detect a strong political status quo bias as the political weights of all political parties hardly deviate from the weights implied by the pre existing tax system we argue that political economy considerations are key in understanding these results

taxes and labor supply of high income physicians abstract we use the 1983 1985 physicians practice costs and income survey supplemented with federal and state tax rates to estimate the effect of variation in marginal tax rates on work hours for high income physicians we find that self employed physicians are much more sensitive to the marginal tax rate than would be suggested by previous labor supply studies while those who are employees have no discernible sensitivity to marginal tax rates

the incidence of personal income taxation evidence from the tax reform act of 1986 abstract this paper studies the short run incidence of personal income taxation in the us by examining how the wage structure shifted after the tax reform act of 1986 i calculate the marginal tax rate for the median worker of each occupation during the 1980s to determine the professions whose workers were most affected by the tax change when controlling for trends over time in the wage structure by occupation i find that individuals in occupations that experienced large decreases in their median marginal tax rates received lower pre tax wages after 1986 as the number of workers and the hours worked in those professions increased the results suggest that consideration of the wage effects of tax reforms is important when using these reforms to identify behavioral parameters and evaluating their distributional consequences

bounding the labor supply responses to a randomized welfare experiment a revealed preference approach we study the impact of connecticut s jobs first jf welfare reform experiment on the labor supply decisions of a sample of welfare applicants and recipients although the experiment identies the distribution of choices made in the absence and presence of reform each woman s counterfactual choice is unknown we show that economic theory restricts the set of counterfactual choices compatible with each woman s actual choice we use these restrictions to develop bounds on the frequency of intensive and extensive margin responses to reform our results indicate that the jf experiment led some women to work and others to reduce their earnings

portfolio rebalancing and the turn of the year effect this paper finds that for the 1935 1986 period the market s risk return relation does not have a january seasonal the findings differ from those of other studies due to the use of value weighted rather than equally weighted portfolios inferences are sensitive to the weighting procedure because of the small firm return patterns in january in particular even in those januaries for which the market return is negative small firm returns are positive and they are more positive the higher is beta this is consistent with the portfolio rebalancing explanation of the turn of the year effect since at least 1926 the average return on small firms in january has been unusually high a phenomenon known as the turn of the year effect in this paper we present new evidence regarding the risk return characteristics of small firms in january we find that for small firms there is a positively sloped riskreturn relation in both up and down markets this pattern is difficult to reconcile with the belief that the high return on small firms in january is equilibrium compensation for risk bearing we show how these patterns in small firms returns have led others to conclude that the market s risk return relation has a january seasonal in particular rozeff and kinney 21 and tinic and west 22 23 among others using equally weighted portfolios formed on the basis of historical betas have found a steeper slope for the capm s risk return relation in january than in other months we demonstrate that this pattern exists only for small firms consequently statistical inferences about the risk return relation are heavily dependent upon whether equally weighted or value weighted portfolio returns are used in the estimation we show that for 1935 86 when monthly cross sectional regressions are estimated using value weighted portfolio returns there is no more of a statistically significant difference in the estimated return to risk bearing in january than in the other eleven months of the year the notion that there is a january seasonal in the capm s risk return relation for the us has rapidly become accepted knowledge for example corhay hawawini and michel 6 accept this conclusion and investigate whether other

a probabilistic choice model for market segmentation and elasticity structure marketing scholars commonly characterize market structure by studying the patterns of substitution implied by brand switching though the approach is useful it typically ignores the destabilizing

estimating labor supply of farm households under nonseparability empirical evidence from nepal abstract this paper examines the labor supply of farm households in nepal using a recently developed methodology that accounts for the simultaneity between production and consumption decisions of the households estimates of marginal products of male and female labor or shadow wages are obtained from an agricultural production function an instrumental variable approach is then used to recover the household s structural labor supply from variations in the shadow wages and income as well as other household characteristics the findings reveal that both male and female total labor supply are sensitive to changes in shadow wages and income human capital embodied in education is found to exert a significant positive effect on output but has no statistically significant impact on total labor supply of individuals the results also rejects the existence of efficient labor markets in rural nepal

on intertemporal substitution and aggregate labor supply in this paper the author presents an econometric investigation of t he implications of the intertemporal substitution hypothesis for aggregate employment in the united states the tests are based on a version of the hypothesis with time separable preferences on the basis of the evidence produced the hypothesis is quite successful in explaining fluctuations in aggregate employment although almost totally unsuccessful in accounting for fluctuations in employee hours these findings suggest that the hypothesis might have an important role to play in macroeconomic modeling although they contradict attempts to account for aggregate fluctuations solely in terms of continuous competitive equilibrium in labor markets copyright 1987 by university of chicago press

assessing empirical approaches for analyzing taxes and labor supply recent surveys on the labor supply responses of men document a divergence in the estimates of substitution and income effects obtained using various estimation approaches generally studies accounting for nonlinear tax schedules in a static setting via a piecewise linear approach produce estimates that typically imply higher substitution and lower income responses than are suggested by empirical work applying other approaches this paper demonstrates that maximum likelihood estimation of a consumer choice problem with nonlinear budget sets implicitly relies on the satisfaction of inequality constraints that translate into behaviorally meaningful restrictions these constraints arise not as a consequence of economic theory but instead as a requirement to create a properly defined statistical model in the analysis of piecewise linear budget sets the implicit constraints required by maximum likelihood in estimation amount to imposition of slutsky conditions at all wage income combinations associated with kink points in the analysis of differentiable budget sets the tacit constraints invoked by maximum likelihood also involve inequality restrictions on slutsky terms the empirical work presented in this study supports the contention that these implicit constraints play a major role in explaining the discrepancies in estimates found in the literature on men s labor supply

the asymmetric information model of state dependence marketing researchers and practitioners are interested in consumer loyalty because of its managerial consequences previous empirical studies find that consumers are loyal not only to a brand but also to a firm umbrella brand that is even when firms offer new products consumers tend to continue to purchase from the same firm this repeat purchase behavior might result from state dependence or from heterogeneity the meaning of state dependence is that the current choice behaviorally depends on the previous one the traditional model of state dependence assumes that the previous choice affects the current utility this study suggests another source of state dependence the previous choice affects the current information set specifically the model assumes that the consumer a knows the attributes of the new product offered by the firm from which he she purchased in the previous period b is uncertain about the attributes of the new products offered by the other firms c can obtain full information about the attributes of all the products through a costly search and d if the consumer decides not to search he she purchases the new product offered by the firm from which he she purchases in the previous period it is shown that state dependence can result either from the effect of previous choices on the current utility or from its effect on the current information set this theoretical result raises the following question what kind of data does a researcher need in order to distinguish between the two sources of state dependence this study shows that the two sources can be distinguished with a standard panel data set in other words although the new source of state dependence is based on the search activity of consumers there is an identifying factor that enables a researcher to detect such activity even without direct data on search the empirical distinction is possible because the behavioral implications of the two sources of state dependence are different they differ in the effect of product attributes on the repeat purchase probability the following example partially illustrates this result there are two firms a and b the consumer purchased a product from firm a in period t 1 the only product attribute is x and the utility is a linear function of x one aspect of our findings is that in the traditional model of state dependence a change in both x a and x b that leaves the difference between them x a x b unchanged neutral change hereinafter has no effect on the repeat purchase probability however such a change does affect the repeat purchase probability in the asymmetric information model of state dependence this is only one aspect of the finding the implications of the models differ in a more general fashion the intuition of this result is the following a neutral change has no effect on the repeat purchase probability in the traditional model of state dependence because it does not affect the difference between the utilities from both alternatives in the asymmetric model of state dependence the consumer s decision process consists of two stages first he decides whether to search for information about the other alternative or not then if he searches for information he chooses the alternative that maximizes his utility in the second stage a neutral change has no effect on choices since such a change does not affect the difference between the utilities from the two alternatives in the first stage the consumer knows x a but does not know x b it turns out that in this stage a neutral change does affect the search decision when for example both x s decrease and the utility is a positive function of x the probability of search increases and thus the repeat purchase probability decreases the proposed source of state dependence is examined using structural estimation and panel data on television viewing choices in the united states controlling for both observed and unobserved heterogeneity it is found that the suggested source is more important in creating repeat purchase than the traditional one for most of the population 71 this indicates that what was considered by previous studies to result from the dependence of consumer utility on their previous choices is at least partially due to the effect of the previous choices on consumers information set the distinction between the two sources of repeat purchase is important because ignoring the informational explanation may lead to incorrect theoretical and empirical conclusions for example price discounts to induce trial are more important for consumers whose utility depends on previous choices while advertising is more effective for those whose information set depends on previous choices

micro and macro elasticities in a life cycle model with taxes we build a life cycle model of labor supply that incorporates changes along both the intensive and extensive margin and use it to assess the consequences of changes in tax and transfer policies on equilibrium hours of work we find that changes in taxes have large aggregate effects on hours of work moreover we find that there is no inconsistency between this result and the empirical finding of small labor elasticities for prime age workers in our model micro and macro elasticities are effectively unrelated our model is also consistent with other cross country patterns

nonparametric estimation of the impact of taxes on female labor supply this paper proposes a simple extension of nonparametric estimation methods for nonlinear budget set models derived in blomquist and newey 2002 to censored dependent variables the nonparametric method is applied to estimate female labor supply elasticities using data on married women from the 1985 and 1989 waves of the panel study of income dynamics exploiting the substantial variation in budget sets caused by the tax reform act of 1986 as a source of identification the estimated wage elasticities from this new method are 0 56 overall and 0 27 on the intensive margin the income elasticity estimates are close to 0 67 overall and 0 13 on the intensive margin compared with the linear labor supply model the estimated elasticities are usually larger for the nonparametric specifications that account for nonlinear budget sets copyright 2010 john wiley sons ltd

cast demographics unobserved segments and heterogeneous switching costs in a television viewing choice model abstract an accurate television viewing choice model is an important tool for television executives and advertisers the authors present a new viewing choice model which differs from the traditional rust alpert model in three ways 1 it introduces a new show characteristic the demographic characteristics of a show s cast 2 it allows the preferences over the traditional show categories to be a function of both observable and unobservable individual characteristics and 3 it allows the cost of switching among the viewing alternatives to vary across show types and individual characteristics cross validated predictive testing shows that this model fits the data better than the rust alpert model does furthermore the authors demonstrate that network executives can improve ratings by using this model the authors predict that by following their scheduling strategies in particular by broadcasting comedies after 10 00 p m abc cbs and nbc could have increased their average ratings by 12 9 7 5

the labor supply response to mismeasured but predictable wage changes most panel data studies of intertemporal labor supply assume classical measurement error recent validation studies refute this assumption in this study i address nonclassical measurement error explicitly i use data on males from the panel study of income dynamics validation study to purge measurement error from the panel study of income dynamics i find a large amount of predictable wage variation in the data even after allowing for measurement error however there is almost no labor supply response to these predictable wage changes therefore failure to control for nonclassical measurement error cannot explain the low estimated labor supply elasticities in other papers

evidence on the volunteer labor supply of married women 1 introduction in this paper i investigate the volunteer labor supply of married women there are dozens of studies that examine the labor supply of married women and a smaller number that investigate the supply of volunteer labor in general as far as i know there are none that have focused on the supply of volunteer labor by married women i analyze time diary data for the 1970s to consider one main question and three subsidiary questions i what was the direct effect of economic variables after tax wage rate and other income on married women s volunteering both participation and hours ii does the number of children in the family influence the volunteering of married women to the extent that rising wages may induce smaller family size is this an indirect channel that reduces volunteering if one of the motivations for volunteering is to increase the quantity or quality of activities for one s own children the 1970s is an especially interesting time period to examine in the united states as that was the decade that saw the first large increases in married women s labor force participation rates iii are time and donations substitutes or complements for married women iv do the data support the brown and lankford 1992 modeling conjecture concerning a sequence of time allocation decisions as opposed to the gronau model of household time allocation where such decisions are made simultaneously gronau 1986 i find that i the volunteer labor supply for married women is positively sloped and inelastic with an estimated wage elasticity of 0 64 rises in the net wage have a small negative effect on married women s participation in volunteer activities a 25 rise in the net wage is associated with a 1 drop in the probability of volunteering there is a small negative other income from assets and husband s earnings elasticity of volunteer labor supply 0 09 so other sources of income mattered for married women s volunteering in the 1970s the effect of other income on married women s volunteer participation is positive ii having more children increases the probability of volunteering but reduces the number of hours volunteered iii donations of time and money appear to be substitutes overall the elasticity of married women s volunteer hours with respect to the tax price of giving is greater than two the participation effect is again negative this result is tentative because the data are not based on tax return information and i lack good information on cash donations iv there is mixed support for the brown and lankford conjecture the finding of a positive wage elasticity of volunteer labor supply is at odds with the opportunity cost of time interpretation of the wage especially as the finding for other income is also negative implying that volunteer hours are an inferior good substitution and income effects would therefore both be in a negative direction as the net wage rises the results with the sequential specification are sensible and easily interpreted but the key parameter estimate does not quite meet conventional standards of statistical significance increased hours of work decrease married women s participation and hours an added test of the sequential model is less favorable the wage findings suggest that rising wages for women caused a reduced incidence of volunteering among married women but if anything increased the hours of volunteering one possible vehicle for this would be the entry of women into professional careers where volunteering is a normal part of the career another possible explanation is that married women with a loose attachment to volunteering stopped volunteering and those married women with greater attachment to volunteering increased their hours commitments to offset the participation effect the link between children and volunteering is important as an indicator of how much selfinterest is involved in volunteering for example school volunteering may be a way of providing enhanced investment in one s own children where the benefit to others is a by product

bounds on elasticities with optimization frictions a synthesis of micro and macro evidence on labor supply how can price elasticities be identified when agents face optimization frictions such as adjustment costs or inattention i derive bounds on structural price elasticities that are a function of the observed effect of a price change on demand the size of the price change and the degree of frictions the degree of frictions is measured by the utility losses agents tolerate to deviate from the frictionless optimum the bounds imply that frictions affect intensive margin elasticities much more than extensive margin elasticities i apply these bounds to the literature on labor supply the utility costs of ignoring the tax changes used to identify intensive margin labor supply elasticities are typically less than 1 of earnings as a result small frictions can explain the differences between micro and macro elasticities extensive and intensive margin elasticities and other disparate findings pooling estimates from existing studies i estimate a hicksian labor supply elasticity of 0 33 on the intensive margin and 0 25 on the extensive margin after accounting for frictions

a labor supply elasticity accord a dispute about the size of the aggregate labor supply elasticity has been fortified by a contentious aggregation theory used by real business cycle theorists the replacement of that aggregation theory with one more congenial to microeconomic observations opens possibilities for an accord about the aggregate labor supply elasticity the new aggregation theory drops features to which empirical microeconomists objected and replaces them with life cycle choices whether the new aggregation theory ultimately indicates a small or large macro labor supply elasticity will depend on how shocks and government institutions interact to put workers at interior solutions for career length

brands as beacons a new source of loyalty to multiproduct firms abstract this study provides evidence that a multiproduct firm s portfolio of products affects consumer purchase decisions about each of the firm s products the authors present a theory that explains this empirical regularity the theory involves revising the information set of consumers to include the profile of multiproduct firms the authors show that revision of the information set in this way introduces a new source of consumer loyalty and explains interesting empirical regularities in consumer behavior for example consumers are loyal to a multiproduct firm even when it does not offer a product that matches their preferences better than a product of competing firms the authors estimate the model and test its implications using panel data on television viewing choices the estimated model also allows for state dependence parameters and unobserved heterogeneity the empirical results support the model and its implications the model offers a parsimonious framework for brand extension strategies and

micro and macro labor supply elasticities a reassessment of conventional wisdom the response of aggregate labor supply to various changes in the economic environ ment is central to many economic issues especially the optimal design of tax policies conventional wisdom based on studies in the 1980s and 1990s has long held that the analysis of micro data leads one to conclude that aggregate labor supply elasticities are quite small in this paper we argue that this conventional wisdom does not hold up to empirically reasonable and relevant extensions of simple life cycle models that served as the basis for these conclusions in particular we show that several pieces of conventional wisdom fail in the presence of human capital accumulation or labor supply decisions that allow for adjustment along both the extensive and intensive margin we conclude that previous estimates of small labor supply elasticities based on micro data are fully consistent with large aggregate labor supply elasticities jel d91 e24 j22

are carbon taxes good for the poor a general equilibrium analysis for vietnam summary we evaluate effects of an environmental tax using a general equilibrium model linked to a household database the burden of the tax applied mainly to energy is passed forward by non tradable industries and backward by tradable industries facing fixed world prices the tax is thus equivalent to a real exchange rate appreciation and since export industries are labor intensive reduces employment and increases poverty especially when labor supply is responsive to wages the use of revenues to increase transfers to households can offset poverty increases but does not create jobs thus the tax will likely conflict with other development policy objectives

addressing nurse shortages what can policy makers learn from the econometric evidence on nurse labour supply this paper provides a detailed review of the international studies that have used formal econometric models to investigate the labour supply decision of registered nurses rns the main finding is that at least in the short run rn labour supply appears to be fairly unresponsive to wage changes consequently even large wage increases are unlikely to be successful in tackling current and predicted nurse shortages this finding points to the importance of non pecuniary job aspects in influencing labour supply however the paper concludes by arguing that these empirical findings should be viewed with some caution given both theoretical and econometric limitations

late career entrepreneurship income and quality of life late career transitions to entrepreneurship are discussed as a promising way to address some of the problematic implications of population aging by extending employment choice theory to simultaneously account for career stage and for non monetary rewards from entrepreneurship we investigate how late career transitions from organizational employment to entrepreneurship influence the returns from the monetary income and non monetary quality of life components of an individual s utility using data from the english longitudinal study of ageing our empirical analysis shows that for late career individuals starting a business is positively associated with change in quality of life and negatively associated with change in income

towards a micro founded theory of aggregate labour supply we build a heterogeneous agents life cycle model that captures a large number of salient features of individual male labour supply over the life cycle by education both along the intensive and extensive margins the model provides an aggregation theory of individual labour supply firmly grounded on individual level micro evidence and is used to study the aggregate labour supply responses to changes in the economic environment we find that the aggregate labour supply elasticity to a transitory wage shock is 1 75 with the extensive margin accounting for 62 of the response furthermore we find that the aggregate labour supply elasticity to a permanent compensated wage change is 0 44

what has been learned about labor supply in the past twenty years the main advance in the study of labor supply in the past 20 years has come in recognizing and interpreting the variety of different labor supply functions that coexist in the empirical literature a crucial theoretical distinction with important empirical payoff is that between labor supply choices at the extensive margin i e labor force participation and employment choices and choices at the intensive margin i e choices about hours of work or weeks of work for workers another important distinction is the one between a descriptive labor supply function and a structural supply function that can be the basis for out of sample policy investigations concerning responses to tax and welfare programs and evaluations of welfare losses a full understanding of the participation hours dichotomy leads to an appreciation of the importance of the problem of selection bias what is the wage to impute to a nonworking person these distinctions are a legacy of the research conducted on labor supply over the past 20 years many important empirical questions have been addressed i how strong are the effects of taxes welfare and transfer programs on labor supply ii how important is intertemporal substitution can life cycle labor supply models explain business cycle labor supply behavior iii has the consensus view of the 1960 s of high labor supply elasticities for married women and low labor supply elasticities for married men held up all of the empirical evidence assembled on labor supply must be called into question in the light of important research on the basic quality of the data conducted by analysts at the university of michigan i discuss this evidence in a concluding section except for my discussion of measurement issues i focus only on the major discoveries about which a general consensus has emerged

optimal taxation social preferences and the four worlds of welfare capitalism in europe drawing on the formal setting of optimal taxation theory this paper identifies the degree of rawlsianism poverty aversion exhibited by european social planners beginning with the observation of actual data and redistribution systems the paper contributes to the comparative research on the structure and typology of welfare capitalism the social preferences implicit in tax benefit systems are recovered by inverting the optimal taxation model for all european countries using european union statistics on income and living conditions data the results are discussed in light of the four worlds of welfare capitalism classification proposed by esping andersen

the optimal taxation of unskilled labor with job search and social assistance abstract in order to explore the optimal taxation of low skilled labor we extend the standard model of optimal nonlinear income taxation in the presence of quasi linear preferences in leisure by allowing for involuntary unemployment job search and an exogenous welfare benefit in trading off low skilled employment against work effort of higher skilled workers the government balances distortions on the search margin with those on work effort higher welfare benefits typically reduce taxes paid by low skilled workers and raise marginal tax rates throughout the skill distribution

regional welfare programs and labor force participation welfare program dependency and expenditures rise during recessions while income tax revenues from working people fall thus now that states are responsible for their own welfare programs they need to know how responsive their citizens are to workplace and safety net opportunities this paper investigates household welfare program and labor force participation behavior a choice theoretic model is developed and estimated for each of the four census regions northeast midwest south and west using cross sectional data on households labor markets and policies we show that household responses to welfare program parameters do differ regionally but we find that labor supply does not depend on welfare program participation or program payoffs furthermore unlike under the previous welfare program participation in temporary assistance for needy families tanf does not significantly reduce household labor supply the finding of significant differences across regions justifies the efficiency rationale for the devolution of authority to the states we also discuss how states may be able to contain expenditures on welfare programs

the effects of progressive taxation on labor supply when hours and wages are jointly determined this paper extends a standard intertemporal labor supply model to account for progressive taxation as well as the joint determination of hourly wages and hours worked we show that these two factors can have implications for both estimating labor supply elasticities as well as for using these elasticities in tax analysis failure to account for wage hours ties and progressive taxation may cause the hours response to marginal tax rate changes to be understated by 5 to 30 percent for men

investment over the business cycle insights from college major choice this paper examines the relationship between individuals personal exposure to economic conditions and their investment choices in the context of human capital focusing on bachelor s degree recipients we find that birth cohorts exposed to higher unemployment rates during typical schooling years select majors that earn higher wages that have better employment prospects and that more often lead to work in a related field much of this switching behavior can be considered a rational response to di erences in particular majors labor market prospects during a recession however higher unemployment leads to other meaningful changes in the distribution of majors conditional on changes in lifetime expected earnings recessions encourage women to enter male dominated fields and students of both genders pursue more dicult majors such as stem fields these findings imply that the economic environment changes how students select majors possibly by encouraging them to consider a broader range of possible degree fields finally in the absence of this compensating behavior we estimate that the average estimated costs of graduating in a recession would be roughly ten percent larger jel e32 i23 j22 j24

taxation and long run growth abstract a number of recent papers have investigated the growth effects of tax reforms in the context of neoclassical growth models with human capital growth effects were found to be large but highly sensitive to parameter choices this paper shows that growth effects are smaller and much less sensitive in models that generate realistic life cycle behavior which requires that households are finitely lived but generations may be altruistically linked and face diminishing point in time returns in human capital accumulation reasonable upper bounds for growth effects in such models are less than one third of some values reported in the literature

state dependence serial correlation and heterogeneity in intertemporal labor force participation of married women a dynamic search framework is developed to analyze the intertemporal labor force participation behavior of married women using longitudinal data to allow for a rich dynamic structure the sensitivity to alternative distributional assumptions is evaluated using linear probability and probit models the dynamic probit models are estimated using maximum simulated likelihood msl estimation to overcome the computational difficulties inherent in maximum likelihood estimation of models with nontrivial error structures the results find that participation decisions are characterized by significant state dependence unobserved heterogeneity and negative serial correlation in the error component the hypothesis that fertility decisions are exogenous to women s participation decisions is rejected when dynamics are ignored however there is no evidence against this hypothesis in dynamic model specifications women s participation response is stronger to permanent than current nonlabor income reflecting unobserved taste factors

welfare the earned income tax credit and the labor supply of single mothers during 1984 1996 welfare and tax policy were changed to encourage work by single mothers the earned income tax credit was expanded welfare benets were cut welfare time limits were added and welfare cases were terminated medicaid for the working poor was expanded as were training programs and child care during this same time period there were unprecedented increases in the employment and hours of single mothers we show that a large share of the increase in work by single mothers can be attributed to the eitc and other tax changes with smaller shares for welfare benet cuts welfare waivers training programs and child care programs

the market work behavior and wages of women 1975 94 changes in the labor market participation and wages of women in the united states are analyzed over the period 1975 1994 using data from the current population survey women are organized into nine birth cohorts five schooling groups and each year of age from 25 to 60 years and their weekly and annual work hours their annual work weeks their employment population ratio and their real average hourly earnings tabulated schooling differences in work behavior have become wider in recent cohorts as have their wages the relationship between work and wages is estimated for women of different ages cohorts and marital status the gap between the work of unmarried and married women has narrowed and the role of wages both the wages of women and those of husbands is examined to determine the extent to which changes in wages account for these movements excerpt

heads i win tails you lose a career analysis of executive pay and corporate performance the paper utilises a novel career perspective to examine managerial theories of organisational control in the context of executive reward principal agent theory managerial power and neo institutionalism are evaluated detailed career histories of boardroom executives in all ftse350 companies between 1996 and 2008 are utilised using both a fixed effects panel and a career based approach rival hypotheses are tested in addition to the payperformance relationship the probability of job loss as a function of performance is also estimated the evidence presented points to the importance of institutional considerations in the standard agency theory and managerial power perspectives and lends support to a social theory of agency the analysis is empirical in nature and an effort is made to draw on qualitative studies to further flesh out the discussion the practical implications of the findings point to the inadequacy of existing arrangements to deliver efficient pay outcomes where performance is poor whilst highlighting dangers of relying on naive policy remedies that ignore the role played by institutional forces in their implementation also highlighted is the distinct advantage of boards adopting a cumulative or career oriented approach when evaluating executive performance from a policy perspective the case is made for truly long term incentives in the form of career shares

environmental awareness consumption and labor supply empirical evidence from household survey data abstract what is the effect of environmental awareness on the households consumption of polluting goods and labor supply decisions we answer this question using household survey data from the united states and measuring environmental awareness with the decision to make environmental donations we find that environmental awareness has a negative and economically significant effect on labor supply the respective impact on the consumption of polluting goods is also negative but less robust in terms of statistical significance our results highlight the importance of understanding the foundations of household behavior related to environmental quality indeed environmentally aware households are willing to tradeoff work hours with improved environmental quality and less so to change their consumption habits

labour supply search and taxes abstract classical labour supply theory is one of the most sophisticated parts of labour economics yet there is no compelling theoretical reason to believe in an outcome on a classical labour supply curve and it is unclear whether it is a good empirical description of the way in which labour markets actually work this paper uses the techniques of search theory to analyse the impact of changes in the tax system on incentives to work when individuals do not have flexibility of hours within jobs it is shown how the traditional comparative statics are of some use but are rarely the whole story and some comparative statics results are surprising

the impact of immigration why do studies reach such different results we classify the empirical literature on the wage impact of immigration into three groups where studies in the first two groups estimate different relative effects and studies in the third group estimate the total effect of immigration on wages we interpret the estimates obtained from the different approaches through the lens of the canonical model to demonstrate that they are not comparable we then relax two key assumptions in this literature allowing for inelastic and heterogeneous labor supply elasticities of natives and the downgrading of immigrants downgrading occurs when the position of immigrants in the labor market is systematically lower than the position of natives with the same observed education and experience levels downgrading means that immigrants receive lower returns to the same measured skills than natives when these skills are acquired in their country of origin we show that heterogeneous labor supply elasticities if ignored may complicate the interpretation of wage estimates and particularly the interpretation of relative wage effects moreover downgrading may lead to biased estimates in those approaches that estimate relative effects of immigration but not in approaches that estimate total effects we conclude that empirical models that estimate total effects not only answer important policy questions but are also more robust to alternative assumptions than models that estimate relative effects

welfare reform in european countries a microsimulation analysis this article compares the effects of increasing traditional welfare to introducing in work benefits in the 15 pre enlargement countries of the european union we use a labour supply model encompassing responses to taxes and transfers along both the intensive and extensive margins and the euromod microsimulation model to estimate current marginal and participation tax rates we quantify the equity efficiency trade off for a range of elasticity parameters in most countries because of large existing welfare programmes with high phase out rates increasing traditional welfare is undesirable unless the redistributive tastes of the government are extreme in contrast the in work benefit reform is desirable in a very wide set of cases

do alternative opportunities matter the role of female labor markets in the decline of teacher quality abstract this paper documents the widely perceived but little investigated notion that teachers today are less qualified than they once were evidence of a marked decline in the quality of young women going into teaching between 1960 and 1990 is presented using standardized test scores undergraduate institution selectivity and positive assortative mating characteristics as indicators of quality in contrast the quality of young women becoming professionals increased the roy model of self selection highlights how occupational differences in the returns to skill determine teacher quality estimates suggest the significance of increasing professional opportunities for women in affecting the decline in teacher quality

the labor supply of fixed wage workers estimates from a real effort experiment abstract fixed wage workers comprise the bulk of the labor force and yet little is known about how they respond to changes in their wage given recent interest in theories of reciprocity and intrinsic motivation and their implications for effort provision the neoclassical prediction seems less obvious today to better understand the motivation of these workers i estimate their labor supply using a real effort experiment two results stand out first no one theory seems to fit the pooled data on average people work considerably harder than the minimum but they do not respond to changes in the wage second pooling the data is deceptive because there seem to be distinct types with differing responses to the wage most workers can be classified as reciprocal or intrinsically motivated and indeed these types respond as theory would predict reciprocators return wage gifts with increased effort and extrinsic incentives crowd out motivation for intrinsic workers

the effect of marginal tax rates on taxable income a panel study of the 1986 tax reform act this paper uses a treasury department panel of more than 4 000 taxpayers to estimate the sensitivity of taxable income to changes in tax rates on the basis of a comparison of the tax returns of the same individual taxpayers before and after the 1986 tax reform the analysis emphasizes that the response of taxable income involves much more than a change in the traditional measures of labor supply the evidence shows an elasticity of taxable income with respect to the marginal net of tax rate that is at least one and could be substantially higher the implications for recent tax rate changes are discussed

the sensitivity of an empirical model of married women s hours of work to economic and statistical assumptions this study undertakes a systematic analysis of several theoretic and statistical assumption s used in many empirical models of female labor supply using a singl e data set psid 1975 labor supply data the author is able to replic ate most of the range of estimated income and substitution effects fo und in previous studies in this field he undertakes extensive specif ication tests and finds that most of this range should be rejected du e to statistical and model misspecifications the two most important assumptions appear to be the tobit assumption used to control for sel f selection into the labor force and exogeneity assumptions on the wi fe s wage rate and her labor market experience copyright 1987 by the econometric society

arbitrage in stock index futures the textbook description of arbitrage suggests that it is a straightforward matter of taking offsetting positions in different securities and realizing the arbitrage profit such descriptions however typically ignore the transaction costs that give rise to the arbitrage opportunity in the first place taking proper account of these transactions costs may considerably complicate the problem particularly when as is usually the case the arbitrage potential is restricted this article is concerned withoptimal arbitrage strategies with transaction costs when the arbitrage potential is restricted by position limits the particular case we shall analyze is the standard and poor s sp the corresponding figure for the s p 500 portfolio for the same period was

intertemporal preferences and labor supply in this paper the authors examine whether nonseparable preference structures ar e important in characterizing life cycle labor supply using longitud inal data on prime age males from the panel study of income dynamics they estimate a model of life cycle leisure and consumption under un certainty in which intertemporal preferences are allowed to be nonsep arable in leisure the model tests several alternative specifications considered in the literature they investigate the robustness of the ir findings to certain forms of population heterogeneity and types of model misspecification across alternative specifications the autho rs find that the standard assumption of intertemporally separable pre ferences for leisure is not consistent with the data copyright 1988 by the econometric society

optimal taxation in the extensive model abstract we study optimal taxation under extensive preferences the agents utilities are constant for positive actions up to a maximal productivity level utilities may be discontinuous at the origin reflecting fixed costs of participation allowing for general distributions of work opportunity costs and productivity and for income effects we characterize optimal incentive compatible tax schedules we then give sufficient conditions for society to desire redistribution when these conditions hold upward distortions of the financial incentives to work can only occur for low skilled workers such upwards distortions are indeed always present when the fixed participation costs are pecuniary

sheepskin effects in work behaviour numerous studies have documented disproportionate increases in wage rates from receiving educational credentials as opposed to from just years of education this study shows sheepskin effects in hours of work that are similar to the sheepskin effects in wage rates systematic sheepskin effects are found in labour force participation and conditional hours of work as well as in wage rates moreover the sheepskin effects in hours of work are apparently not simply endogenous responses to the sheepskin effects in wage rates thus sheepskin effects in earnings are much larger than those previously shown for wage rates the results suggest that education is sorted more by work intentions than innate ability

tenure dependence in consumer firm relationships an empirical analysis of consumer departures from automobile insurance firms a typical pattern in markets featuring long term consumer firm relationships is for departure probabilities to decline with tenure a crucial question is whether this actually implies increasing consumer preference for firms if so firms should actively try to convince consumers to remain through the early periods of the relationship and should enter new markets quickly however the pattern can also be explained by selection on unobserved heterogeneity the challenge is to use the data available in these markets generally details on the consumers of one firm to distinguish between these explanations i rely on individual price histories in auto insurance findings include an economically relevant level of both relationship effects and heterogeneity but a much more important role for heterogeneity

optimal income transfer programs intensive versus extensive labor supply responses this paper analyzes optimal income transfers for low incomes labor supply responses are modeled along the intensive margin intensity of work on the job and along the extensive margin participation into the labor force when behavioral responses are concentrated along the intensive margin the optimal transfer program is a classical negative income tax program with a substantial guaranteed income support and a large phasing out tax rate however when behavioral responses are concentrated along the extensive margin the optimal transfer program is similar to the earned income tax credit with negative marginal tax rates at low income levels and a small guaranteed income carefully calibrated numerical simulations are provided

estimating the interdependence of television program viewership between spouses a bayesian simultaneous equation model when making product choices consumers are influenced by the preferences of other consumers such as family members friends neighbors and colleagues preference interdependence among family members is likely to be significant because of cohabitation and strong emotional ties to estimate the preference interdependence we specify a simultaneous equation model and propose a bayesian estimation approach unlike existing models that use a spatial autoregressive structure to capture the interdependence of consumer preferences we are able to estimate the potential asymmetry in the preference interdependence among family members in a more flexible way in a simulation study we show that models that ignore interdependence of preferences yield biased estimates of consumers sensitivity to observed attribute preferences in an empirical application we estimate the interdependence of the viewership of television programs between husbands and wives in 481 households we find that wives viewing behavior depends more strongly on their husbands viewing behavior than husbands viewing behavior depends on their wives viewing behavior there exist significant differences in parameter estimates of dependence across categories of television programs differences in levels of spousal interdependence across households are partially explained by the age and the education level of the spouses

the effect of income taxation on labor supply when deductions are endogenous this paper extends the standard static model of labor supply and taxation to the case where people are able to legally avoid taxes through the use of itemized deductions tax deductible expenditures are treated as a hicksian composite good with a price for those who decide to itemize proportional to one minus the marginal tax rate estimation of the commonly used linear labor supply model extended to incorporate the additional composite good on a cross section of prime aged married men suggests that tax deductible consumption is an uncompensated substitute for leisure and complement with labor the impact of taxes through the relative price of deductible expenditures appears to be much stronger than through the net wage copyright 1992 by mit press

is having more channels really better a model of competition among commercial television broadcasters competitive behavior in commercial television broadcasting is modeled to examine program choice and the effects of more channels being available on firm strategy specifically broadcasters compete by selecting both the type and quality level of a program to offer but do not compete on price we obtain five major results first a comparison of monopoly and duopoly markets indicates that broadcasters in an industry with a larger number of competitors may provide programs of lower quality compared to broadcasters in an industry with a smaller number second in terms of viewer welfare having more channels available is not necessarily better third broadcasters tend to choose an intermediate level of differentiation in terms of the types of programs they provide resulting in a counterprogramming strategy in other words avoidance of price competition is not required for competitors to differentiate themselves from each other fourth if one broadcaster starts the evening with a higher quality higher rated program than its competitor its second program should also be of higher quality finally a broadcaster s first program should be of equal or higher quality than its second program put another way it always behooves a broadcaster to lead with its best

value added taxation a tax whose time has come value added taxes vats are used in a large number of developed countries and have been under consideration at the national level in the united states in recent years this paper provides an introduction to the tax for those unfamiliar with it the author begins by describing how vats work and briefly surveys their use by other countries the remainder of the paper considers the economic impact as well as design issues that are likely to arise if the united states were to implement a vat

optimal income taxation of lone mothers an empirical comparison of the uk and germany optimal tax rules are used to evaluate the optimality of taxation for lone mothers in germany and britain the theoretical model is combined with elasticities derived from the structural estimation of lone mothers labour supply for both countries we do not find that in work credits with marginal tax rates are optimal however we show that when the government has a low taste for redistribution out of work transfers and transfer for the working poor are very similar implying very low marginal tax rates further the current tax and transfer systems in both countries are shown to be optimal only if governments have a much higher welfare value for income received by the non workers than the working poor government run transfer and redistribution programmes are of major importance in most developed countries such countries spend large amounts of public funds to provide income support to the poor although the precise structure of these pro grammes differs substantially as expenditures on public income support programmes count for a sizeable share of the government s budget in welfare states and because of their alleged negative work incentive effects there is an ongoing public debate about policy reforms in this area this controversy can be best described by the trade off between equity and efficiency income transfers increase the disposable income of the disadvantaged and thus their well being but the programmes introduce distortions that might lead to substantial disincentives in the labour market the aim of this article is to apply recent results from the optimal tax literature to analyse the design of personal income tax and welfare benefits empirically and to discuss its optimality we focus on the tax and transfer systems for lone mothers in germany and the uk

what happens when you tax the rich evidence from executive compensation this paper examines the responsiveness of taxable income to changes in marginal tax rates using detailed compensation data on several thousand corporate executives from 1991 to 1995 the data confirm that the higher marginal rates of 1993 led to a significant decline in taxable income indeed this small group of executives may account for as much as 20 percent of the aggregate change in wage and salary income for approximately the one million richest taxpayers over this time period one person alone can account for more than 2 percent the decline however is almost entirely a short run shift in the timing of compensation rather than a permanent reduction in taxable income the short run elasticity of taxable income with respect to the net of tax share exceeds one in this sample but the elasticity after one year is at most 0 4 and probably closer to zero breaking out the tax responsiveness of different types of compensation shows that the large short run responses come almost entirely from a large inc

wage discrimination and population composition in the long run we derive the conditions that sign the effects of changing population composition on wage levels and ratios when labor supply and discrimination preferences vary the overall effect depends on an aggregate market a relative market and a preference distribution effect

the impact of coupled and decoupled government subsidies on off farm labor participation of u s farm operators with the 1996 farm act the united states introduced payments that were designed to be decoupled labor allocation choices are likely to be affected by receipt of payments and income from off farm jobs has been the major source of income for most farm households for sometime this article examines whether the 1996 change has affected the off farm labor participation of farm households we conclude that the observed increase in off farm participation of farm operators who received payments was not the result of the 1996 policy change government payments whether coupled or decoupled have a negative effect on off farm labor participation

split panel jackknife estimation of fixed effect models we propose a jackknife for reducing the order of the bias of maximum likelihood estimates of nonlinear dynamic fixed effect panel models in its simplest form the half panel jackknife the estimator is just 2 hat theta bar theta 1 2 where hat theta is the mle from the full panel and bar theta 1 2 is the average of the two half panel mles each using t 2 time periods and all n cross sectional units this estimator eliminates the first order bias of hat theta the order of the bias is further reduced if two partitions of the panel are used for example two half panels and three 1 3 panels and the corresponding mles on further partitioning the panel any order of bias reduction can be achieved the split panel jackknife estimators are asymptotically normal centered at the true value with variance equal to that of the mle under asymptotics where t is allowed to grow slowly with n in analogous fashion the split panel jackknife reduces the bias of the profile likelihood and the bias of marginal effect estimates simulations in fixed effect dynamic discrete choice models with small t show that the split panel jackknife effectively reduces the bias and mean squared error of the mle and yields confidence intervals with much better coverage

the incredible shrinking elasticities married female labor supply 1978 2002 this paper demonstrates the extent to which married women s labor supply elasticities have changed over the past quarter century estimates from march current population survey data suggest that these elasticities have decreased substantially by 60 percent for the hours wage elasticity from 0 36 to 0 14 70 percent for the hours income elasticity from 0 053 to 0 015 95 percent for the participation wage elasticity from 0 66 to 0 03 and 60 percent for the participation income elasticity from 0 13 to 0 05 changing demographic characteristics explain little of the drop in these elasticities suggesting that preferences toward work have changed across birth cohorts

biological basics and the economics of the family many economic models of the family are based on a generic person one person two household or parent child family rather than their anatomically correct counterparts sons and daughters fathers and mothers and grandfathers and grandmothers these economic models can offer powerful insights into family behavior but also can leave certain patterns unexplained and neglect potentially important crosscurrents melding biological insights with family economics can cast new light on existing knowledge and open up novel paths for research for example study after study has found that putting family income in the hands of mothers rather than fathers tends to increase the consumption of children as noted in this journal in lundberg and pollak 1996 yet the way such results are usually described might strike a noneconomist as exceedingly circumspect economists point out that these findings reject the common preference model of household decision making in favor of one with independent decisionmaking spouses but usually make little mention of motherhood or fatherhood per se or consider the dramatic expansion of south african government pension programs in the early 1990s which put lots of extra money in the hands of grandparents many of whom lived with their grandchildren in a compelling and oft cited study duflo 2003 found evidence of pension spillovers to grandchildren but the most intriguing patterns were demographic pensions to maternal grandmothers redounded to the benefit of granddaughters economic analysis uncovers the income effects but turns out to be of little help for explaining why these particular gender effects predominated

viewpoint empirical evidence and tax policy design lessons from the mirrlees review this paper examines the role of evidence in drawing up the recommendations for tax reform in the mirrlees review the arguments are organised loosely under five related headings i key margins of adjustment ii measurement of effective tax rates iii the importance of information and complexity iv evidence on the size of responses v implications from theory for tax design although the mirrlees review focuses on all aspects of tax reform the focus is this paper is on the taxation of earnings with some examples drawn from the taxation of consumption and savings ce memoire examine le role des resultats dans la confection des recommandations pour la reforme fiscale dans l enquete mirrlees les arguments sont regroupes sous cinq rubriques i les importantes marges d ajustement ii la mesure des taux d imposition effective iii l importance de l information et de la complexite iv constat sur la taille des reponses et v les implications pour la theorie du design des politiques d imposition meme si l enquete mirrlees a examine tous les aspects de la reforme fiscale ce texte met l accent sur l impot sur les remunerations avec quelques exemples portant sur l impot sur la consommation et l epargne

labour supply as a buffer evidence from uk households this paper examines how individuals use their labour supply hours of work and participation decisions as a margin of adjustment or buffer in response to financial shocks the financial shock measure is constructed using individuals expected change to their financial situation in the year ahead relative to the perceived outcome one year later using bhps data we find that both men and women adjust their labour supply in response to financial shocks the propensity to participate in the labour market also appears to respond to the experience of a financial shock but is less robust

optimal tax and transfer programs for couples with extensive labor supply responses this paper analyzes the optimal design of general nonlinear tax transfer schedules for couples under unitary and collective approaches to family decision making we consider a double extensive model of labor supply where each spouse makes a labor force participation choice for given hours of work we present simple and intuitive optimal tax rules that generalize existing findings on the optimal taxation of single person households with extensive responses saez 2002 to the case of two person households with double extensive responses without income effects on labor supply optimal tax rules as a function of sufficient statistics are the same under the unitary and collective approaches with income effects on labor supply optimal tax rules under the two approaches continue to depend on the same sufficient statistics but the collective model features an additional pigouvian term arising from a within family participation externality finally we present microsimulations of tax reform for 15 european countries suggesting that a reduction of tax rates on secondary earners relative to primary earners is associated with strong welfare gains in all countries

broadband in the labor market the impact of residential high speed internet on married women s labor force participation the author investigates how high speed home internet use has affected labor supply using an instrumental variables strategy that exploits cross state variation in supply side constraints to reside

household unemployment and the labour supply of married women a recent reform to the uk unemployment insurance ui system has reduced the duration of entitlement from 12 to six months the ui and welfare systems interact in the uk in such a way that exhaustion of ut for married individuals has potentially large disincentive effects on the labour supply of spouses a model of labour supply is estimated for married women allowing for endogenous unemployment durations of husbands and wives we distinguish between transfer programme induced incentive effects correlation between labour supply and wages within couples complementarity between the leisure times of spouses and a discouraged worker effect

business models for media firms does competition matter for how they raise revenue the purpose of this article is to analyze how competitive forces may influence the way media firms like tv channels raise revenue a media firm can either be financed by advertising revenue by direct payment from the viewers or the readers if we consider newspapers or by both we show that the scope for raising revenues from consumer payment is constrained by other media firms offering close substitutes this implies that the less differentiated the media firms content the larger is the fraction of their revenue coming from advertising a media firm s scope for raising revenues from ads on the other hand is constrained by how many competitors it faces we should thus expect that direct payment from the media consumers becomes more important the larger the number of competing media products

the effects of in work benefit reform in britain on couples theory and evidence this paper examines the effects of the working families tax credit wftc on couples in britain we develop a simple model of household decisions which explicitly accounts for the role played by the tax and benefit system its main implications are then tested using panel data from the british household panel survey collected between 1991 and 2002 overall the financial incentives of the reform had negligible effects on a wide range of married mothers decisions such as eligible working at least 16 hours per week and full time employment working at least 30 hours per week employment transitions childcare use and divorce rates women s responses however were highly heterogeneous depending on their partners labour supply and earnings mothers married to low income men showed larger responses in employment especially if they had younger children they were more likely to remain in the labour force and had higher rates at which they entered it while more likely to receive the tax credit they also experienced a greater risk of divorce we find virtually no effect for women with higher income husbands likewise there are no statistically significant responses among married men