the role of price and nonprice factors in predicting australia s trade performance this article investigates the role of price and nonprice factors in predicting australia s trade performance results broadly suggest that australia s trade performance is largely explained by the

opportunity challenges and policy choices for china on the development of shale gas with the highest shale gas reserves worldwide and huge need for energy the chinese government has introduced many incentives to accelerate the development of shale gas including subsidies and reduction or waiver of the related fees or taxes however the challenges posed by a lack of advanced technologies environmental protection a shortage of water in quantity and a knowledge of how to develop a good industry local community relationship are anticipated in the realization of the predicted golden age of the chinese shale gas industry based on the particular situation and available resources in china and with reference to the experiences in countries with a developed shale gas industry such as the u s a and suggestions by the international energy agency recommendations about the choices facing china can be summarized as follows allowing foreign investors directly to hold exploration and mining rights in shale gas could facilitate the obtainment of advanced technologies the improvement of the regulatory arrangements related to environmental protection could make developers more responsible prompting developers to improve their water use efficiency could help in not worsening the water supply to some extent and slo based mechanism guidance could be helpful in developing a mutual trust and benefit relationship between the shale gas industry and the local community

mainstream economic analysis and the case for accommodation the federal reserve has a dual mandate to foster both full employment and price stability most often these two goals are in alignment so policies that support one objective generally support the other however at times the two aims can be at odds when that happens policies that target one goal may lead to misses on the other one this article argues that taking a balanced approach between competing choices provides a solution that is in agreement with mainstream monetary policy rules

the long term effects of ui extensions on employment the majority of papers analyzing the employment effects of unemployment insurance ui benefit durations focus on the duration of the first unemployment spell in this paper we make two contributions first we use a regression discontinuity design to analyze the long term effects of extensions in ui durations these estimates differ from standard estimates in that they incorporate differences in ui benefit receipt and employment due to recurrent unemployment spells second we derive a welfare formula of ui extensions that incorporates recurrent nonemployment spells

industry structure and the speed of price adjustment recent work has suggested that there is an association between the degree of concentration in an industry and the speed at which prices adjust to changes in prime costs cagan 8 domberger 12 13 scherer 21 p 356 and the references cited therein apart from its intrinsic interest to students of industrial economics there would seem to be three reasons for investigating this association first to see what light if any it throws upon the influence of industrial structure on the price level together with the rate and process of inflation secondly to test the assumption made in some influential studies e g godley and nordhaus 15 coutts godley and nordhaus 10 and haig and wood 18 that the size of the lag between cost and price changes is solely dependent upon the length of the fabrication production and delivery period in the various industries the third reason is a belief held by the author that distributed lag coefficients in econometric studies should be subject to analysis and not left hanging in the air as part of the development of a large scale econornetric model of the australian economy the imp model a team of researchers under the direction of dr brain at melbourne university have estimated price prime cost equations for 43 manufacturing sectors using annual data referring to the period 1948 49 1973 74 1 the estimating equation is of the form

how to weigh unemployment relative to inflation in monetary policy the monetary policy mandate for the federal reserve and of the riksbank are essentially the same and boil down to stabilizing inflation around the inflation target and employment or unemployment around a long run sustainable rate the relative weight on stabilizing unemployment or employment versus stabilizing inflation may be close to one a positive unemployment gap forecast normally calls for a positive inflation gap forecast

exports foreign market structure and profitability in japanese and u s manufacturing this paper examines the influence of price d ecisions by foreign firms on export price decisions by domestic firms the theor etical analysis develops a general model which hypothesizes a positive relation between export price and foreign price assuming international product differenti ation this model further suggests that export price depends on foreign structur al traits as they determine foreign price the empirical analysis based on a cr oss section of sixty nine four digit manufacturing industries matched between th e united states and japan provided support for the hypothesis that foreign mark et structure and foreign pricing affect export pricing and thus the observed pri ce cost margin copyright 1986 by mit press

factor inputs and japanese manufacturing trade structure the japanese international trade structure in manufactured goods has been analyzed using cross section regression analysis in which labor capital human capital and energy are regressed on japanese net exports exports and imports with the world oecd and developing countries for 1967 and 1975 skill and wage differential measures have been utilized for the measuring of human capital contrary to the dualism found in earlier studies the estimated results show that in 1967 japan exported unskilled labor intensive goods with respect to the developing countries as well as the oecd countries in 1975 japan exported capital intensive goods to all regions and imported unskilled labor intensive goods from the world and the developing countries skilled labor intensive goods were imported from the oecd countries in both years drastic changes between 1967 and 1975 are noted japanese exports shifted from unskilled labor intensive goods to capital intensive goods while imports did the opposite this result conforms to the changes in unskilled labor and capital usage in japan and her major trading partners

taxes tariffs and transfer pricing in multinational corporate decision making three interrelated aspects of u s multinational corporation activity are analyzed here the ability to shift profits from high tax countries to low tax countries the impact of host country taxes and tariffs on the distribution of real capital and the influence of these policies on international trade patterns of the united states and host countries the cross sectional empirical analysis indicates that the observed pattern of reported profits in high and low tax countries is consistent with income shifting behavior and that real investment responds to host country effective tax rates and tariffs the united states appears both to import more from and export more to low tax countries where mnc investment is greater but this bilateral focus must be amplified to consider multilateral effects if trade benefits are to be projected copyright 1991 by mit press

the internationalization of production by italian industrial districts firms structural and behavioural determinants mariotti s mutinelli m and piscitello l the internationalization of production by italian industrial districts firms structural and behavioural determinants regional studies the paper argues that structural and behavioural determinants combine to influence internationalization of production through foreign direct investment fdi by industrial districts firms as far as the former leadership effects represented by the presence of large firms within the district and porterian effects denoted by the intensity of domestic rivalry positively influence the likelihood that district firms will start internationalize through fdi moreover spillovers induced by the presence of foreign owned multinational corporations positively impact on the district s degree of internationalization provided it has already autonomously developed the ability to grow internationally as far as behavioural features previous export relationships increase the district firms likelihood of undertaking fdi while innovat

the collapse of purchasing power parities during the 1970 s one of the striking facts concerning the relationship beiveen prices and exchange rates during the 1970 s has been the dismal performance of the predictions of the simple versions of the purchasing power parity doctrine ppp that doctrine in its absolute version states that the equilibrium exchange rate between domestic and foreign currencies equals the ratio of domestic to foreign price levels the relative version of the doctrine relates equilibrium changes in exchange rates to changes in the ratio of domestic to foreign prices during the 1970 s short run changes in exchange rates bore little relationship to short run differentials in national inflation rates and frequently divergences from purchasing power parities have been cumulative this paper reviews and analyzes the empirical record of exchange rates and prices during the 1970 s and the analysis is based on the experience of the dollar pound the dollar frecch franc and the dollar dm exchange rates section 2 presents the evidence on ppp during the 1970 s and contrasts it with the evidence from the 1920 s a period during which the doctrine held up reasonably well this analysis is relevant for assessing whether the flexible exchange rate system was successful in providing national economies with an added degree of insulation from foreign shocks and whether it provided policymakers with an added instrument for the conduct of macroeconomic policy the evidence regarding devia tions from purchasing power parities is also relevant for determining whether there is a case for managed float section 3 attempts to explain what went wrong with

forecasting the impact of renewable energies in competition with non renewable sources abstract the diffusion dynamics of traditional and clean energy systems in the energy mix are studied in a competition modeling where their interacting life cycles are jointly described competition has only been considered recently since diffusion competition models are not easy to be implemented data are represented by yearly consumptions in mtoe of traditional sources coal oil gas and nuclear systems and a selection of renewable sources hydroelectric wind and solar power for the us europe china and india from 1965 to 2014 for each case we will investigate whether the diffusion level of traditional sources sustains or prevents the spread of renewables and vice versa for the us and europe we will take into account the link between the 2008 2009 financial crisis and the slowdown in consumptions as a matter of fact the energy sector is characterized by uncertainty due to the depletion of finite energy sources the technological and economical problems of renewables and the hypothesis of shale gas as a possible bridge to renewables that could delay the spread of latter ones in this scenario six year forecasts are provided until 2020

the impact of the north american shale gas revolution on regional natural gas markets evidence from the regime switching model this paper investigates the impact of the north american shale gas revolution on price movement regimes in the north american and european gas markets using the markov regime switching model it then measures price spreads between oil and gas from 1998 to 2015 to identify the impact of the revolution on the relationship between oil and regional gas prices the results show that the typical movement regime of henry hub prices changes from slightly upward to sharply downward in addition the clear seasonal effect of henry hub prices has disappeared after the shale gas revolution the typical movement of national balancing point nbp prices has changed gradually from a sharply upward regime to the alternative regimes between sharply downward and slightly upward tending to follow oil prices this indicates that the shale gas revolution has had little impact on nbp price movement meanwhile henry hub prices have decoupled from wti prices while nbp and brent prices have continued to exhibit a long term equilibrium level around which they have swung in the short time frame since the shale gas revolution pertinent energy policy makers and energy market participants should pay attention to these changes and adjust their trade production and investment strategies accordingly

an empirical examination of long run purchasing power parity as theory of international commodity arbitrage an empirical analysis of long run purchasing power parity ppp as a theory of international commodity arbitrage between uk and us prices and the sterling us dollar exchange rate for the period 1975 1980 is presented econometric techniques concerning the cointegration of economic time series are applied to a sample of 35 manufactured commodities which in 1977 constituted approximately a quarter of the net output of all manufacturing industry in great britain our results are extremely unfavourable to the ppp hypothesis as a stable long run proportionality between exchange rates and disaggregated prices

electricity demand analysis using cointegration and arima modelling a case study of turkey in the early 2000s the republic of turkey has initiated an ambitious reform program in her electricity market which requires privatization liberalization as well as a radical restructuring the most controversial reason behind or justification for recent reforms has been the rapid electricity demand growth that is to say the whole reform process has been a part of the endeavors to avoid the so called energy crisis using cointegration analysis and autoregressive integrated moving average arima modelling the present article focuses on this issue by both providing an electricity demand estimation and forecast and comparing the results with official projections the study concludes first that consumers respond to price and income changes is quite limited and therefore there is a need for economic regulation in turkish electricity market and second that the current official electricity demand projections highly overestimate the electricity demand which may endanger the development of both a coherent energy policy in general and a healthy electricity market in particular

shale gas policy in the united kingdom an argumentative discourse analysis shale gas has become an energy policy priority in the united kingdom in light of profitable extraction activities in the united states since 2012 the coalition government has created key economic drivers to encourage shale exploration whilst growing activism in affected site communities has stirred significant media and academic commentary this study examines the growing national debate as a matter of discourse adopting an argumentative discourse analytic approach to assess data collected from stakeholder interviews n 21 and key policy actor statements quoted in broadsheet newspapers we explore three dominant storylines emerging in relation to shale gas policy 1 cleanliness and dirt concerns the relative framing of the environmental benefits and harms of shale gas 2 energy transitions pathways and diversions concerns geographic metaphors of transitions to carbon intensive and low carbon energy systems and 3 geographies of environmental justice concerns divisions of economic benefit distribution environmental impact and procedural fairness we find that central government policy rhetoric emphasises economic development regulatory oversight and distribution of benefits to site communities whilst minimising discussion of the implications of shale gas for anthropogenic climate change the role of these discourses in influencing shale gas policy is discussed

shale gas analysis of its role in the global energy market shale gas revolution that took place in the united states at the beginning of the 21st century has still been shaping our global fossil fuel market in 2012 the u s has surpassed russia in natural gas production for the first time since 1982 at the same year annual average u s henry hub natural gas spot price decreased to 2 75 per million btu which was 8 69 per million btu in 2005 in 2013 proved shale gas reserves of the world is estimated at nearly 2 7 trillion cubic metres tcm and unproved resources at staggering 203 9 tcm as a result there is a global rush to develop most of this resource as possible however shale gas is no miracle fuel it has been suggested that its effects on the environment could be worse than conventional natural gas fugitive methane emissions groundwater pollution and increased seismicity are amongst the most important potential environmental side effects there is also concern about the accuracy of resource potential estimations due to lack of data and specifically designed shale gas reservoir models nonetheless the analysis in this study clearly showed that without developing global shale gas resources we have to consume 66 of our proved natural gas reserves to supply the demand till 2040 this would make most of the world natural gas importers and rules of economy dictate that limited supply and increasing demand would skyrocket natural gas prices therefore shale gas resource development is not an option but a must for the continuance of our global energy market and economy

electricity consumption and economic growth a time series experience for 17 african countries abstract while the availability of electricity by itself is not a panacea for the economic and social problems facing africa the supply of electricity is nevertheless believed to be a necessary requirement for africa s economic and social development this paper tests the long run and causal relationship between electricity consumption per capita and real gross domestic product gdp per capita for 17 african countries for the period 1971 2001 using a newly developed cointegration test proposed by pesaran et al 2001 and using a modified version of the granger causality test due to toda and yamamoto 1995 the advantage of using these two approaches is that they both avoid the pre testing bias associated with conventional unit root and cointegration tests the empirical evidence shows that there was a long run relationship between electricity consumption per capita and real gdp per capita for only 9 countries and granger causality for only 12 countries for 6 countries there was a positive uni directional causality running from real gdp per capita to electricity consumption per capita an opposite causality for 3 countries and bi directional causality for the remaining 3 countries the result should however be interpreted with care as electricity consumption accounts for less than 4 of total energy consumption in africa and only grid supplied electricity is taken into account

the rise in the disability rolls and the decline in unemployment between 1984 and 2001 the share of nonelderly adults receiving social security disability insurance income di rose by 60 percent to 5 3 million beneficiaries rapid program growth despite improving aggregate health appears to be explained by reduced screening stringency declining demand for less skilled workers and an unforeseen increase in the earnings replacement rate we estimate that the sum of these forces doubled the labor force exit propensity of displaced high school dropouts after 1984 lowering measured u s unemployment by one half a percentage point steady state calculations augur a further 40 percent increase in the rate of di receipt

the effects of extended unemployment insurance over the business cycle evidence from regression discontinuity estimates over 20 years one goal of extending the duration of unemployment insurance ui in recessions is to increase ui coverage in the face of longer unemployment spells although it is a common concern that such extensions may themselves raise nonemployment durations it is not known how recessions would affect the magnitude of this moral hazard to obtain causal estimates of the differential effects of ui in booms and recessions this article exploits the fact that in germany potential ui benefit duration is a function of exact age which is itself invariant over the business cycle we implement a regression discontinuity design separately for 20 years and correlate our estimates with measures of the business cycle we find that the nonemployment effects of a month of additional ui benefits are at best somewhat declining in recessions yet the ui exhaustion rate and therefore the additional coverage provided by ui extensions rises substantially during a downturn the ratio of these two effects represents the nonemployment response of workers weighted by the probability of being affected by ui extensions hence our results imply that the effective moral hazard effect of ui extensions is significantly lower in recessions than in booms using a model of job search with liquidity constraints we also find that in the absence of market wide effects the net social benefits from ui extensions can be expressed either directly in terms of the exhaustion rate and the nonemployment effect of ui durations or as a declining function of our measure of effective moral hazard copyright 2012 oxford university press

advertising competition and market share instability this paper tests the hypothesis that advertising reduces leading firm market share instability a proxy for interfirm rivalry by creating market power if advertising increases product differentiation and brand loyalty then it also reduces demand cross elasticities and stabilizes shares changes over time in the combined market shares of the top four firms are examined for a large sample of four digit standard industrial classification manufacturing indust ries for 1963 82 multiple regression equations are used to explain s hare instability measured as deviations both about the simple mean a nd about a linear time trend the results indicate that advertising d oes not reduce market share instability copyright 1987 by the university of chicago

on some international parity conditions an empirical investigation abstract this paper investigates weak semi strong and strong forms of the following international parity conditions a uncovered interest parity b the hypothesis of equal ex ante real interest rates and c ex ante purchasing power parity the main results are as follows using data which roughly cover the 1975 1984 decade we find little evidence in favor of the strong form of the parity conditions under consideration however most test results are consistent with the weak forms finally regarding the semi strong forms the results are mixed

determinants of cross national knowledge transfer and its effect on firm innovation this study examines the determinants of international knowledge flow from a resource based perspective it evaluates the impact of cross national knowledge transfer on firm innovative performance based on 56 027 us patents owned by 53 selected firms in the us based pharmaceutical industry the results suggest that innovative performance is a curvilinear function of the international knowledge content used by a firm to innovate as hypothesized it was found that at 1 low and moderate levels of international knowledge content a firm s strategy to transfer international knowledge improves its innovative performance and at 2 higher levels of international knowledge content there are diminishing marginal returns to transferring knowledge from overseas

advertising competition and market share instability advertising can promote market power by differentiating products by establishing brand loyalty among consumers and by raising the costs of entry on the other hand advertising can be a source of valuable information to consumers that leads to an erosion in the market shares of individual sellers the empirical relationship between advertising and market share instability across industries sheds light on the competitive implications of advertising and promotional activities prior tests of this relationship rely on market share observations from the census of manufactures that are reported only every five years the present study by contrast employs a data set consisting of annual market share observations for 163 four digit manufacturing industries over the period 1978 88 the empirical results show a positive and statistically significant ceteris paribus relationship between advertising intensity and market share instability thereby lending support to the hypothesis that advertising is generally pr

foreign competition domestic knowledge base and innovation activities evidence from chinese high tech industries using panel data analysis for a sample of chinese high technology industries from 1998 to 2008 this study examines how industry characteristics affect industry innovation activities differing from existing studies our research considers the impact of foreign competition on innovation activities at industry level in a large emerging economy the results indicate that the intensity of competition from foreign invested enterprises fies and domestic skill intensity affect industry buy and make activities foreign competition is positively associated with the intensity of buy activity but negatively affects the intensity of make activity further the findings show that domestic skill intensity weakens the impact of foreign competitive pressure on innovation activities our empirical evidence has important policy implications

forecasting production of fossil fuel sources in turkey using a comparative regression and arima model this study aims at forecasting the most possible curve for domestic fossil fuel production of turkey to help policy makers to develop policy implications for rapidly growing dependency problem on imported fossil fuels the fossil fuel dependency problem is international in scope and context and turkey is a typical example for emerging energy markets of the developing world we developed a decision support system for forecasting fossil fuel production by applying a regression arima and sarima method to the historical data from 1950 to 2003 in a comparative manner the method integrates each model by using some decision parameters related to goodness of fit and confidence interval behavior of the curve and reserves different forecasting models are proposed for different fossil fuel types the best result is obtained for oil since the reserve classifications used it is much better defined them for the others our findings show that the fossil fuel production peak has already been reached indicating the total fossil fuel production of the country will diminish and theoretically will end in 2038 however production is expected to end in 2019 for hard coal in 2024 for natural gas in 2029 for oil and 2031 for asphaltite the gap between the fossil fuel consumption and production is growing enormously and it reaches in 2030 to approximately twice of what it is in 2000

international trade performance and concentration in british industry this paper reports the results of a cross sectional analysis for 97 industries at the minimum list heading level of their international trading performance 1970 77 and the influence of industrial structure on this it is shown that on average import penetration increased faster than the export ratio for the industries analysed investigation of the relationship between industrial concentration and international trade suggest that in the majority of the analyses especially where the relation between prior concentration change and subsequent with a performance was concerned higher or increasing levels of concentration were associated with a weaker international trade performance on the basis of this it is argued that more attention needs to be paid to international trade as a performance rather than merely a structural phenomenon in industry the reasons for the relatively disappointing performance need to be investigated in more detail the risk of a decline in internaional trade performance needs to

contracts the trade account and deviations from purchasing power parity in equilibrium a hallmark of the recent monetary analysis of exchange rate determination has been the assumption of purchasing power parity p p p it can be argued that this is an arbitrage relationship in the context of a one output world in any case considerable advance has been made by analyzing international finance issues under this assumption on the other hand it is not innocuous as has been demonstrated by isard 12 and richardson 17 for example p p p does not in fact hold at least in the short run magee 16 argues that observed deviations from p p p do not imply market inefficiency because the presence of contracts in international trade implies that ex ante profit opportunities can be eliminated through arbitrage and yet p p p fail to hold in his context the deviations are spurious and therefore if taken seriously can lead to erroneous policy measures on for example dumping he assumes an exogeneous stochastic process for the exchange rate and so does not discuss the implications of contracting for equilibrium market prices harris and purvis 11 derive equilibrium market prices on the assumption of exogenous deviations from p p p and do not explicitly model the origin of these deviations in the present paper a contrast is drawn between two polar models the first is a standard stochastic equilibrium in a small open economy in which arbitrage ensures

changes in concentration turbulence and the dynamics of market shares most previous studies of the dynamics of industry structure by emphasizing changes in concentration conceal much of the nature of underlying competitive processes here we employ a stochastic fir

natural gas corridors between the eu and its main suppliers simulation results with the dynamic gastale model abstract growth in gas demand poses a challenge for european energy consumers and other gas importing countries in terms of an increasing dependency on gas imports and consequently also supply security this paper focuses on interactions among demand supply and investments in natural gas corridors namely pipeline transport lng and storage facilities affecting the european natural gas market over the period 2005 2030 a number of policy scenarios including a business as usual bau scenario are formulated to study the impact of demand uncertainty and delays in investment on the gas transport infrastructure required in the long run in europe the analyses indicate that substantial investments in gas transport corridors are needed to accommodate imports and seasonal demand variations analysis of scenarios of supply interruption in the form of suddenly reduced import capacity for particular pipeline routes indicates that portions of europe could experience price increases of up to 100 in the case of a year long interruption to accommodate import needs and to mitigate possible disruptions pipeline connections running from east to west need to be given special priority

import share under international oligopoly with differentiated products japanese imports in u s manufacturing this paper seeks to identify the determinants of the japanese impor t share in the u s market from the assumptions of international oligopoly and internationally differentiated products a theoretical model is developed where import share is considered as a cournot nash equilibrium the relative position of the reaction functions is determined by the previous commitments of both domestic and foreign firms on advertising r d and tangible investment as well as by artificial and natural trade barriers using a sample of twenty four three digit import competing u s industries matched to japanese industries the empirical analysis provides evidence supporting the model s predictions that the relative strategic expenditures and market structures of both partners explain the japanese import share in u s markets copyright 1988 by mit press

r d capital rate of return on r d investment and spillover of r d in japanese manufacturing industries the effect of r 50d on productivity growth in japanese manufacturing industries is examined using more accurate firm r 50d expenditure data than widely used data based on financial statements series of r 50d capital are constructed then rate of return on r 50d investment is estimated in addition the impact of other industries r 50d on the productivity growth of an industry is also estimated an attempt is made to determine the effect of electronics technology upon the productivity growth of other industries through the transaction of the intermediate electronics goods with improved quality and through the diffusion of the new technological knowledge discovered japanese technology trade 1977 1981 copyright 1989 by mit press

the impact of the shale gas revolution on the u s and japanese natural gas markets we investigated whether the increase in the us shale gas production changed the structures of the us and japanese natural gas markets using market data for the period 2002 5 2012 5 our analysis consists of a structural break test and market integration analysis the bai and perron structural break test detected a break point of natural gas prices and consumption in 2005 as well as other external shocks hurricane katrina and the lehman shock that are irrelevant to shale gas development we eliminated the impact of these shocks by separating the data set using the breaks identified in our analysis we found the breaks skewed the estimation a market linkage existed between the us and japanese markets in the original data set while it did not in the separated data the vector autoregressive var model also indicated a significant change before and after the break point the us market had a one side influence on the japanese market before 2005 but the influence disappeared after 2005 our results implied that the shale gas revolution triggered by the increase in shale gas production in 2005 caused the change in the relationship between the us and japanese natural gas markets

lead markets country specific drivers of the global diffusion of innovations abstract globally successful innovations have commonly been preferred first in one country or region before being adopted internationally countries that first adopt an internally successful innovation can be described as lead markets this paper presents the lead market concept of developing global innovations the lead role of a market is discussed first theoretically and then by use of a system of five country specific factors demand advantages price advantages export advantages transfer advantages and market structure advantages the applicability of this system of lead market factors is then evaluated in a detailed case study of the cellular mobile telephone industry it is finally suggested that companies can harness lead markets for the development of global innovations by developing and refining innovations in close interaction with the local environment of a lead market a company can focus on a narrow range of preferences and feedback lowering the risk of being locked into idiosyncratic environments and generate true global innovations a method for identifying potential lead markets is briefly discussed

the competition situation analysis of shale gas industry in china applying porter s five forces and scenario model abstract with the increasing of energy demand and environmental pressure china government has been exploring a way to diversify energy supply shale gas development is becoming an important energy strategy in china in recent years due to giant shale gas reserves however the shale gas market is preliminarily shaping in china so that many factors have great influence on its competition to find these factors and to control them rationally is good for the cultivating chinese shale gas market five forces model for industry analysis puts an insight into the competitive landscape of shale gas market by showing the forces of supplier power buyer power threat of substitution barriers to entry and degree of rivalry illustrating the key factors that affect competitive landscape provides a view into the situation of shale gas industry the variation tendency of shale gas industry is analyzed by setting various scenarios finally some suggestions are proposed in order to keep the development of shale gas industry positively

policy recommendations to promote shale gas development in china based on a technical and economic evaluation because of its resource potential and clean burning advantages the development of shale gas can significantly increase the supply of cleaner energy while offering the associated benefits to foster shale gas development many policy incentives have been introduced in china however the current incentives have not been sufficiently aggressive and the shale gas industry has been slow to develop existing policies thus need to be further improved to provide effective support for decision makers in china a technical and economic evaluation is performed in this study to explore the profitability of shale gas production in pilot zones the results show that shale gas production is subeconomic under the current technical and economic conditions based on this evaluation a policy analysis is conducted to investigate the profitability improvement offered by the major policies available in china to elucidate a path toward improving incentive policies the results indicate that policy instruments related to gas prices financial subsidies corporate income taxes or combinations thereof could be used as priority options to improve policy incentives based on these results recommendations are presented to improve the current incentive polices aimed at accelerating shale gas development

purchasing power parity as a theory of international arbitrage in manufactured goods an empirical view of uk us prices in the 1970s this study treats purchasing power parity as a theory of arbitrage and seeks to test for its applicability at a disaggregated level evidence is found to suggest that arbitrage in individual markets cannot be easily aggregated due to different a adjustment periods across industries even at a disaggregated level the evidence does not suggest a long run arbitrage process of the type implied by relative purchasing power parity moreover the length of time which industries take to adjust to changes in foreign prices and the exchange rate is found to be related both to the domestic competitive environment and the extent to which the particular good is traded

competing at home to win abroad evidence from japanese industry the study explores the influence of domestic competition on international trade performance using data from a broad sample of japanese industries domestic rivalry is measured directly using market share instability rather than employing structural variables such as seller concentration we find robust evidence that domestic rivalry has a positive and significant relationship with trade performance measured by world export share particularly when r d intensity reveals opportunities for dynamic improvement and innovation conversely trade protection reduces export performance these findings support the view that local competition not monopoly collusion or a sheltered home market pressures dynamic improvement that leads to international competitiveness

vision 2023 forecasting turkey s natural gas demand between 2013 and 2030 abstract natural gas is the primary source for electricity production in turkey however turkey does not have indigenous resources and imports more than 98 0 of the natural gas it consumes in 2011 more than 20 0 of turkey s annual trade deficit was due to imported natural gas estimated at us 20 0 billion turkish government has very ambitious targets for the country s energy sector in the next decade according to the vision 2023 agenda previously we have estimated that turkey s annual electricity demand would be 530 000 gwh at the year 2023 considering current energy market dynamics it is almost evident that a substantial amount of this demand would be supplied from natural gas however meticulous analysis of the vision 2023 goals clearly showed that the information about the natural gas sector is scarce most importantly there is no demand forecast for natural gas in the vision 2023 agenda therefore in this study the aim was to generate accurate forecasts for turkey s natural gas demand between 2013 and 2030 for this purpose two semi empirical models based on econometrics gross domestic product gdp at purchasing power parity ppp per capita and demographics population change were developed the logistic equation which can be used for long term natural gas demand forecasting and the linear equation which can be used for medium term demand forecasting fitted to the timeline series almost seamlessly in addition these two models provided reasonable fits according to the mean absolute percentage error mape criteria turkey s natural gas demand at the year 2030 was calculated as 76 8 billion m 3 using the linear model and 83 8 billion m 3 based on the logistic model consequently found to be in better agreement with the official turkish petroleum pipeline corporation botas forecast 76 4 billion m 3 than results published in the literature

industrial electricity demand for turkey a structural time series analysis abstract this research investigates the relationship between turkish industrial electricity consumption industrial value added and electricity prices in order to forecast future turkish industrial electricity demand to achieve this an industrial electricity demand function for turkey is estimated by applying the structural time series technique to annual data over the period 1960 to 2008 in addition to identifying the size and significance of the price and industrial value added output elasticities this technique also uncovers the electricity underlying energy demand trend uedt for the turkish industrial sector and is as far as is known the first attempt to do this the results suggest that output and real electricity prices and a uedt all have an important role to play in driving turkish industrial electricity demand consequently they should all be incorporated when modelling turkish industrial electricity demand and the estimated uedt should arguably be considered in future energy policy decisions concerning the turkish electricity industry the output and price elasticities are estimated to be 0 15 and 0 16 respectively with an increasing but at a decreasing rate uedt and based on the estimated equation and different forecast assumptions it is predicted that turkish industrial electricity demand will be somewhere between 97 and 148 twh by 2020

r d rivalry industrial policy and u s japanese trade the authors examine how the strategic aspect of japanese research and development expenditures and industrial policies affected u s japanese bilateral trade during the late 1970s and investigate which component of r d expenditures on process innovation product quality improvements new products and new technology or technology transfer proved to be most effective they find that while japanese r d expenditures have generally promoted japan s trade advantage certain components of r d have proved more effective than other the depreciation subsidy and special status with the ministry of international trade and industry is positively related to the japanese trade performance while legal cartelization status has not had any apparent effect copyright 1988 by mit press

competitiveness in a globalised world michael porter on the microeconomic foundations of the competitiveness of nations regions and firms in this paper we provide the text of an interview with professor michael porter discussing his research and ideas relating to the microeconomic foundations of global competitiveness the discussion provides a microeconomic perspective on some of the key issues relating to recent research on competitiveness productivity clusters us economic leadership economic growth and development

the persistence of market leadership evidence from japan this article explores the persistence of market leadership in japanese manufacturing industries over the period 1975 2004 by applying survival data techniques we examine how long market leadership persists and how the duration of market leadership varies according to industry specific characteristics our findings indicate that market leaders maintain their leadership positions for on average 20 years from 1975 in japanese manufacturing industries we provide evidence that market leadership tends to persist in capital intensive and legally cartelized industries whereas it is less likely to persist in demand volatile r d intensive and import intensive industries copyright 2009 the author 2009 published by oxford university press on behalf of associazione icc all rights reserved oxford university press

ant colony optimization approach to estimate energy demand of turkey abstract this paper attempts to shed light on the determinants of energy demand in turkey energy demand model is first proposed using the ant colony optimization aco approach it is multi agent systems in which the behavior of each ant is inspired by the foraging behavior of real ants to solve optimization problem aco energy demand estimation acoede model is developed using population gross domestic product gdp import and export all equations proposed here are linear and quadratic quadratic acoede provided better fit solution due to fluctuations of the economic indicators the acoede model plans the energy demand of turkey until 2025 according to three scenarios the relative estimation errors of the acoede model are the lowest when they are compared with the ministry of energy and natural resources menr projection

stochastic analysis of a shale gas investment strategy for coping with production uncertainties abstract the soaring demand for natural gas and deteriorating environmental conditions in recent years have together created a significant incentive for china to develop shale gas exploration in this endeavor production capacity is a major uncertainty that substantially affects the net investment return we propose a markov decision process model to explore and determine the desirable investment strategy under such uncertainty our model has the advantage of being able to handle dynamic stochastic market states and it considers not only the value of the project itself net cash flow but also the social welfare environmental cost and financial subsidy our objective is to maximize the long run expected return of investment the methodology was applied to determine the investment strategy for a case study in china we found that the project is feasible only when the production capacity is larger than 8 55 billion cubic meters additional shale gas supply may generate higher sales revenue however the benefits may be neutralized by the decrease in price when domestic demand is inelastic to price we also found that financial subsidy is an effective incentive for shale gas investment because it significantly increases the expected return of investment

job displacement disability and divorce earnings shocks should affect divorce probability by changing a couple s expected gains from marriage we find that the divorce hazard rises after a spouse s job displacement but does not change after a spousal disability this difference casts doubt on a purely pecuniary motivation for divorce following earnings shocks since both types of shocks exhibit similar long run economic consequences furthermore the increase in divorce is found only for layoffs and not for plant closings suggesting that information conveyed about a partner s noneconomic suitability as a mate due to a job loss may be more important than financial losses in precipitating divorce

the geopolitical impact of the shale revolution exploring consequences on energy prices and rentier states while the shale revolution was largely a us affair it affects the global energy system in this paper we look at the effects of this spectacular increase in natural gas and oil extraction capacity can have on the mix of primary energy sources on energy prices and through that on internal political stability of rentier states we use two exploratory simulation models to investigate the consequences of the combination of both complexity and uncertainty in relation to the global energy system and state stability our simulations show that shale developments could be seen as part of a long term hog cycle with a short term drop in oil prices if unconventional supply substitutes demand for oil these lower oil prices may lead to instability in rentier states neighbouring the eu especially when dependence on oil and gas income is high youth bulges are present or buffers like sovereign wealth funds are too limited to bridge the negative economic effects of temporary low oil prices

the intergenerational effects of worker displacement this article uses variation induced by firm closures to explore the intergenerational effects of worker displacement using a canadian panel of administrative data that follows more than 39 000 father son pairs from 1978 to 1999 we find that children whose fathers were displaced have annual earnings about 9 lower than similar children whose fathers did not experience an employment shock they are also more likely to receive unemployment insurance and social assistance the estimates are driven by the experiences of children whose family income was at the bottom of the income distribution

natural resource ownership financial gains and governance the case of unconventional gas development in the uk and the us abstract who owns an area s natural resources affects the local financial gains from extraction and participation in resource governance we develop a typology of ownership regimes using two dimensions of ownership private versus public and local versus absentee and apply it to unconventional natural gas development in the united kingdom uk and the state of pennsylvania in the united states we find that local residents in pennsylvania own 53 of the acreage leased for development and capture an estimated 8 5 of the value of production of the typical well more than double what is expected from a well in the uk s public absentee regime despite revenue sharing policies the dollar amount of local payments is also larger in pennsylvania with the difference reflecting policies and institutions not differences in the value of production the pennsylvania case provides a benchmark for public absentee owners considering policies to direct payments to communities hosting extraction it gives the local payments corresponding to the case where subsurface owners voluntarily negotiate lease terms with energy firms and roughly half of ownership revenues accrue locally

impact of unconventional natural gas development on regional water resources and market supply in china from the perspective of game analysis abstract this study presents a detailed framework for evaluating water resource constraint and game based supply strategies of unconventional and conventional natural gases in china surface water production pressure and groundwater pollution risk level are used to measure the extent of water resource constraint on shale gas development cournot and stackelberg game models are applied to illustrate the oligopoly mechanism between unconventional and conventional natural gas manufacturing a subsidy multiplier model is then proposed to identify the impact of government subsidy on different game strategies results indicate that high amounts of estimated ultimate recovery and recycling wastewater would significantly reduce water resources consumption during shale gas development an increased subsidy coefficient would increase the amount of unconventional natural gas but decrease the amount of conventional natural gas however the majority of subsidy multiplier values would be less than 1 implying an inconspicuous effect of the subsidy moreover the equilibrium production of unconventional natural gas in the cournot and stackelberg game models would increase with the increased substitution factor m1 but decrease with the increased substitution factor m2 conversely the high amount of equilibrium production of conventional natural gas would increase the substitution factor m2 but reduce the substitution factor m1 within these two models

a system dynamics analysis of technology cost and policy that affect the market competition of shale gas in china abstract in order to ease environment pressure and alleviate the scarce problem of energy chinese government has begun to exploit and develop shale gas sg since 2009 however the formation of competitive market is bristled with difficulties due to its infancy imperfect and lack of standardization this paper firstly analyzes the status quo of technology policy cost and competition of sg industry in china then a system dynamics sd model is built to show various trends of chinese sg industry under different scenarios which shows that technology policy and cost all have effects on competitiveness at last the simulations reveal that the number of competitors in chinese sg industry will arrive at its peak from 2019 to 2020 the corresponding recommendations have been presented chinese government should pay more attention on the perfection of laws and regulations of sg industry and competitors should focus on increasing r d investment

further evidence on competition in the us grain export trade this study analyzes the relationship between export market structure and the pricing behavior of u s grain exporting firms a generalized cournot model is estimated by two stage least squares using pooled data sets for u s wheat and corn exports the cross sectional units correspond to foreign country destinations discriminatory export pricing behavior was found to be significantly related to export seller concentration u s market share total export volume and import market size yet the estimated coefficients linking these market structure variables to the export price markup were relatively small in magnitude suggesting little quantitative impact from market power copyright 1994 by blackwell publishing ltd

the independence of tests for structural change in regression models abstract it is shown that the common tests for stability of regression coefficients and of the disturbance variance in linear regression models are independent this enables the size of the joint test procedure to be controlled exactly

competition in japan japan registered a remarkable 6 5 percent rate of economic growth from 1955 to 1990 catching up with high income western countries in its level of economic development during the 1950s 1960s 1970s and into the 1980s japan s share of world exports rose dramatically from 2 9 percent in 1960 to 6 1 percent in 1970 8 2 percent in 1980 and a peak of 9 8 percent in 1985 porter takeuchi and sakakibara 2000 japanese firms were increasingly successful internationally in large visible industries such as automobiles semiconductors and consumer electronics the striking economic success of japan was widely attributed to a set of economic institutions and policies that encouraged collaboration and limited competition the japanese case then called into question many of the bedrock assumptions of competition thinking it seemed to show that there was a different path to economic prosperity this article begins by examining competition in japan and the supporting policies and institutions during the twentieth century many factors seem to suggest that competition in japan has been less intense but there is an awkward complication the empirical evidence about the intensity of competition in japanese industry does not support the conclusion the story clearly is more complicated we seek to reconcile the apparent differences between policy and institutional circumstances and the empirical evidence by examining the types of competition that prevail across japanese industries and the underlying causes japan indeed pursued an array of policies that limited competition but these policies were not applied throughout the economy in fact those industries in which competition

barriers to the development of china s shale gas industry abstract shale gas has become a promising onshore energy prospect in china as much as the country aspires for greater energy independence through the use of its shale gas reserves this process is slowed down by the combined weight of relative inexperience lack of technology geographical complexity a hostile economic environment a disincentive pipeline regime and a complex land ownership system to foster a better understanding of the current circumstances of the country s shale gas sector a panel of scholars and experts shared their perspectives and insider knowledge on china s shale gas industry it was found that some of the country s man made institutional barriers are factors that have been hindering shale gas development in china in addition to natural conditions such as water concerns and the complex geography of shale fields resolving this situation necessitates breaking the monopoly that major state owned oil companies have over high quality shale gas resources opening pipeline network access providing geological data developing the domestic oil service market creating conditions for fair competition between service providers and improving the water management system

china s energy security and its challenges towards 2035 abstract within the last twenty years china has become dependent on import of coal oil and natural gas especially oil is now an economic and a security concern by the chinese regime and key international stakeholders until 2035 china will account for one fourth of the global net growth in global gas consumption and more than half of the net growth in oil consumption the future demand cannot be covered by china s own conventional and unconventional sources pipelines from neighboring countries can cover more than half of the needed import of natural gas by 2030 but only 10 percent of the import demand of oil is secured so far even if china attempts to address its insufficient supply of oil by increased investments in overseas oil fields there is still a large gap furthermore the oil import will largely come from politically unstable countries and regions and the bulk of the supplies must be shipped through the potentially insecure hormuz and malacca straits the ongoing territorial disputes with neighboring countries regarding areas with gas and oil reserves in contested waters bear evidence to regional conflict potentials and china appears to engage more actively in energy diplomacy and regional cooperation