beyond carbon pricing the role of banking and monetary policy in financing the transition to a low carbon economy it is widely acknowledged that introducing a price on carbon represents a crucial precondition for filling the current gap in low carbon investment however as this paper argues carbon pricing in itself may not be sufficient this is due to the existence of market failures in the process of creation and allocation of credit that may lead commercial banks the most important source of external finance for firms not to respond as expected to price signals under certain economic conditions banks would shy away from lending to low carbon activities even in the presence of a carbon price this possibility calls for the implementation of additional policies not based on prices in particular the paper discusses the potential role of monetary policies and macroprudential financial regulation modifying the incentives and constraints that banks face when deciding their lending strategy through for instance a differentiation of reserve requirements according to the destination of lending may fruitfully expand credit creation directed towards low carbon sectors this seems to be especially feasible in emerging economies where the central banking framework usually allows for a stronger public control on credit allocation and a wider range of monetary policy instruments than the sole interest rate

pathways to a low carbon economy estimations on macroeconomic costs and potential of carbon emission abatement in beijing abstract developing reliable frameworks to estimate the potential of co2 emission abatement and its associated costs merits urgent attention this study aims to estimate the potential as well as macroeconomic costs of co2 emission abatement in beijing using the industrial economy as the basis multiobjective programming and genetic algorithm are integrated into the input output analysis several important findings have been gathered in the study 1 the abatement cost varies between 259 97 and 535 46 per ton at different rates of economic growth 2 a reinforced emission abatement target can induce higher macroeconomic costs 3 an inverse u shaped relationship between co2 reduction cost and gdp growth rate was found when gdp growth rate is above the threshold value of 7 marginal abatement costs decrease rapidly in parallel with gdp growth when the gdp growth rate is below 7 the marginal abatement cost increases significantly with economic growth 4 industries that have the highest and least potential of abatement have been identified for effectively reducing co2 emissions beijing needs to promote economic restructuring to maximize the potential of emission abatement and also fulfil the emission abatement target in a cost effective way this paper provides a quantitative approach to rationalize the policy design process of enacting emission targets and recommends cost effective abatement strategies

optimal mix of emissions taxes and cap and trade abstract in practice different emitters of a particular pollutant are sometimes subjected to different control mechanisms this paper focuses on the situation where a part of the economy is regulated by a cap and trade program while the rest is subjected to an emissions tax using an extended version of weitzman s prices vs quantities model m l weitzman prices vs quantities revi econ stud 41 1974 477 491 we analyze the conditions under which this is superior from an efficiency point of view to subjecting the whole economy to either of these control mechanisms the paper addresses a crucial trade off between two sources of efficiency loss one due to cost effectiveness issues and another due to emissions volume this trade off determines the optimal size of each sector it is shown that the size of the taxed sector at an optimum increases with the relative steepness of the aggregate marginal abatement cost function

valuing carbon assets for high tech with application to the wind energy industry abstract in contrast to the traditional methods for high tech evaluation we introduce a new more active idea for considering the carbon asset effect in addition to the economic and technological considerations for strategic significance the method proposed in this paper considers a reduced amount of carbon emissions less than that of the current industry baseline to be an asset that is beneficial to a firm that adopts a new technology the measured carbon asset values vary across different technologies in different industries and over time the new method is applied to the valuing of wind energy technology and uses the weibull distribution to estimate the wind energy capacity and a concrete sensitivity analysis these applications support the validity of the new method and show that the impact of the fluctuations of carbon sinks on the values of carbon assets is significantly greater than that of volatility in the production output the paper also presents some policy recommendations based on the results

prices vs quantities the effects on technology choice abstract it is well known that price and quantity based regulation approaches provide different investment incentives but usually only the effect on the level of investment is studied in this paper we show that under uncertainty they also lead to the adoption of different technologies due to the disparate risks that a regulated firm is exposed to different regulatory instruments induce different technologies and this effect cannot be compensated by varying the design of the instruments furthermore price based instruments lead to the adoption of a socially suboptimal technology so that the inclusion of technology choice provides a bias in favor of a quantity based regulation compared with weitzman s weitzman m l 1974 prices vs quantities review of economic studies 41 477 491 criterion

robust estimation and forecasting of the long term seasonal component of electricity spot prices when building stochastic models for electricity spot prices the problem of uttermost importance is the estimation and consequent forecasting of a component to deal with trends and seasonality in the data while the short term seasonal components daily weekly are more regular and less important for valuation of typical power derivatives the l ong term seasonal components ltsc seasonal annual are much more diffi cult to tackle surprisingly in many academic papers dealing with electricity spot price modeling the importance of the seasonal decomposition is neglected and the problem of forecasting it is not considered with this paper we want to fill the gap and present a thorough study on estimation and forecasting of the ltsc of electricity spot prices we consider a battery of models based on fourier or wavelet decomposition combined with linear or exponential decay we find that all considered wavelet base d models are significantly better in terms of forecasting spot prices up to a year ahead than all considered sine based models this result questions the validity and usefulness of stochastic models of spot electricity prices built on sinusoidal long term seasonal components

price dynamics among u s electricity spot markets combining recent advances in causal flows with time series analysis relationships among 11 u s spot market electricity prices are examined results suggest that the relationships among the markets vary by time frame in contemporaneous time the western markets are separated from the eastern markets and the electricity reliability council of texas at longer time frames these separations disappear even though electricity transmission between the regions is limited it appears the relationships among markets are not only a function of physical assets such as transmissions lines among markets but by similar and dissimilar institutional arrangements among the markets

addressing climate change with a comprehensive us cap and trade system there is growing impetus for a domestic us climate policy that can provide meaningful reductions in emissions of carbon dioxide co2 and other greenhouse gases i describe and analyse an up stream economy wide co2 cap and trade system which implements a gradual trajectory of emissions reductions with inclusion over time of non co2 greenhouse gases and includes mechanisms to reduce cost uncertainty initially half of the allowances are allocated through auction and half through free distribution with the share being auctioned gradually increasing to 100 per cent over 25 years the system provides for linkage with emission reduction credit projects in other countries harmonization over time with effective cap and trade systems in other countries and regions and appropriate linkage with actions taken in other countries in order to establish a level playing field among domestically produced and imported products

should sliding controls be the next generation of pollution controls abstract the desirability of imposing a set of sliding effluent charges is investigated in a stochastic multifirm model that explicitly includes not only emissions but also a positively valued product and the amount of pollution removed from the effluent before it is emitted drawing upon the intuition developed in the literature of comparative economics it is urgued that if the cost variables are positively correlated across firms then the best sliding control for each firm closely approximates a quantity standard when many firms are to be regulated other possibilities are also considered and the slope of the best sliding control is suggested in each case

cointegration analysis of spot electricity prices insights on transmission efficiency in the western us abstract the us energy policy act of 1992 promoted the development of spot markets for electric power by requiring utilities to open their transmission systems to wholesale power sales in this paper we specify and estimate a vector error correction model using peak and off peak electricity spot prices during 1994 1996 covering 11 regional markets in the western united states and test these prices for evidence of market integration the results show evidence of an efficient and stable wholesale power market

carbon pricing and electricity markets the case of the australian clean energy bill abstract we examine the impact of the clean energy bill on the price behavior of electricity futures contracts in the australian national electricity market first we compute ex ante forward risk premiums in the pre tax period until june 2012 then derive market implied expectations about additional costs of the carbon pricing mechanism cpm on generators as well as pass through rates during the carbon tax july 2012 june 2014 and post tax after july 2014 periods our results suggest that the observed carbon premiums became increasingly higher once the carbon tax had been proposed and subsequently legislated in 2011 during periods where market participants could be relatively certain that the tax would be effective we find expected carbon pass through rates between 67 and 150 which seem to be inversely related to emission intensities in the regional markets our results are also a clear indication of strong policy uncertainty with regards to the cpm and suggest that in the future a stable and long term policy framework would be required for a carbon pricing mechanism to have its full effect

dynamic granger causal networks of electricity spot prices a novel approach to market integration this study uses network theory to analyze the interactions of a representative sample of 13 european eu electricity spot prices during the period 2007 2012 we construct 7651 dynamic multivariate networks where the nodes correspond to different eu countries and the links weight the granger causality between the variations of the respective electricity prices global connectivity is then characterized by the system s density or the total quantity of causal interactivity sustained by the network system which informs about the occurrence of abnormal changes in connectivity we report a considerably large peak lasting from october 2011 to april 2012 where the graph s density over basal jump reached a magnitude of 2 4 times suggesting an improved degree of connectivity of electricity markets during this period by applying the markov regime switching model on the network density we find that this change coincides with the implementation of the european commission s third energy package at the local level the in strength values quantifying the dependence of the electricity price variation of an eu country on other countries validate the reliability of our technique by verifying historical events such as the occurrence of interconnectors commissioning and market coupling on the path to full market integration market networks should be periodically monitored our model which is able to create a time varying network describing the evolving influences between the european electricity prices is able to detect important changes in market integration and can be considered a suitable and promising approach for this task

globalization and its challenges rudi was born and grew up in krefeld germany he was an undergraduate at the university of geneva and completed his ph d at the university of chicago in 1971 which is where we met he was a student of robert mundell and both the subject matter the development of the mundell fleming model and the elegance and insights of his early work reflected mundell s influence he taught at the university of rochester and at the university of chicago before accepting an offer from mit in 1975

are micro and macro labor supply elasticities consistent a review of evidence on the intensive and extensive margins we evaluate whether state of the art macro models featuring indivisible labor are consistent with modern quasi experimental micro evidence by synthesizing evidence on both the intensive and extensive margins we find that micro estimates are consistent with macro estimates of the steady state hicksian elasticities relevant for cross country comparisons on both the extensive and intensive margins however micro estimates of intertemporal substitution frisch elasticities are an order of magnitude smaller than the values needed to explain business cycle fluctuations in aggregate hours by preferences the key puzzle to be resolved is why micro and macro estimates of the frisch extensive margin elasticity are so different

high exchange rate volatility and low pass through abstract two specifications of an open economy model are shown to generate high exchange rate volatility and low exchange rate pass through erpt in the model price discrimination causes erpt to be incomplete in both the short and the long run in the short run a small amount of nominal rigidities is enough to reduce erpt sharply still exchange rate depreciation worsens the terms of trade consistent with the evidence possible biases from omitted variables and measurement error in the erpt empirical literature due to data limitations are investigated using model generated time series estimates of erpt coefficients can be quite different from true parameters and are sensitive to the shocks driving the economies estimates can nonetheless detect key structural features of the models

tracking global carbon revenues a survey of carbon taxes versus cap and trade in the real world abstract we investigate the current use of public revenues which are generated through both carbon taxes and cap and trade systems more than 28 3 billion in government carbon revenues are currently collected each year in 40 countries and another 16 states or provinces around the world of those revenues 27 7 8 billion are used to subsidize green spending in energy efficiency or renewable energy 26 7 4 billion go toward state general funds and 36 10 1 billion are returned to corporate or individual taxpayers through paired tax cuts or direct rebates cap and trade systems 6 57 billion in total public revenue earmark a larger share of revenues for green spending 70 while carbon tax systems 21 7 billion more commonly refund revenues or otherwise direct them towards government general funds 72 of revenues drawing from an empirical dataset we also identify various trends in systems use of carbon revenues in terms of the total revenues collected annually per capita in each jurisdiction and offer commensurate qualitative observations on carbon policy design choices

volatility impulse response functions for multivariate garch models an exchange rate illustration we introduce a new concept of impulse response functions tracing the effects of independent shocks on volatility through time while avoiding typical orthogonalization and ordering problems in an empirical study of a bivariate foreign exchange fx rate series we use volatility impulse response functions to discuss the effects of central bank decisions such as direct interventions in the fx market or open market activities on fx market volatility comparing our concept with conditional moment profiles introduced by gallant et al gallant a r rossi p e tauchen g 1993 nonlinear dynamic structures econometrica 61 871 907 we show that for shocks affecting fx rates in an asymmetric way the difference between the two methodologies and their interpretation can be substantial

reassessing the integration of european electricity markets a fractional cointegration analysis this study extends existing literature on the assessment of electricity market integration in europe by developing and testing hypotheses on the convergence of electricity wholesale prices and adopting a time varying fractional cointegration analysis in addition the potential impacts of some special events that may affect system capacity new interconnection market coupling increase in share of intermittent generation on spot and forward markets are considered and evaluated daily spot prices from february 2000 to march 2013 of nine european electricity spot markets apx uk apx nl belpex epex fr epex de ipex nordpool omel and ote and month ahead prices in four markets french british german and dutch from november 2007 to december 2012 are investigated results show that unit root tests which are generally used in the literature to test market integration are inadequate for assessing electricity spot market convergence because spot prices are found to be fractionally integrated and mean reverting time series furthermore spot price behaviour and their association with different markets change over time reflecting changes in the eu electrical system one month ahead prices by contrast were found to have become more resilient to shocks and to follow more stable trends

spot and derivative pricing in the eex power market using spot and futures price data from the german eex power market we test the adequacy of various one factor and two factor models for electricity spot prices the models are compared along two different dimensions 1 we assess their ability to explain the major data characteristics and 2 the forecasting accuracy for expected future spot prices is analyzed we find that the regime switching models clearly outperform its competitors in almost all respects the best results are obtained using a two regime model with a gaussian distribution in the spike regime furthermore for short and medium term periods our results underpin the frequently stated hypothesis that electricity futures quotes are consistently greater than the expected future spot a situation which is denoted as contango

a competitive carbon emissions scheme with hybrid fiscal incentives the evidence from a taxi industry abstract as two major approaches to reduce carbon emissions command and control instruments and market based carbon trading systems have their own weaknesses our paper first proposes a type of endogenous equilibrium methodology to dynamically derive the industrial carbon emissions standards at the equilibrium the sum of all carbon assets and liabilities is zero in the considered industry moreover the standards fall over time with low carbon technological advance most importantly combining pigou s and coase s ideas we construct a fiscal instrument accounting for both carbon taxes and allowances based on the dynamically improved emissions standards and carbon trading prices this no revenue for government method implements a self operated ecology for carbon trading market finally considering the waterloo recession of carbon prices we introduce an adjustment factor into the model which generates a negative feedback mechanism with carbon prices to support our idea we present the application to beijing taxi industry in detail and raise relative policy implications based on the evidence

integration of regional electricity markets in australia a price convergence assessment abstract from an electricity market design perspective it is relevant and practical to know which market structures allow for price convergence and how long this takes to achieve this study employs the phillips and sul 2007 2009 methodology to test for the convergence of wholesale electricity prices across the australian states we identify a long run common price growth pattern that applies to a cluster formed by three eastern states that share common market characteristics and limited physical interconnection we also find another cluster with less competitive market structures that although not interconnected strongly converge towards their own trend these findings confirm theoretical expectations while quantifying the rate of convergence finally we also investigate the role that the carbon tax regime has played in the convergence process with new empirical showing that the previous results are not affected with the notable exception being the case of south australia

an empirical comparison of alternate regime switching models for electricity spot prices one of the most profound features of electricity spot prices are the price spikes markov regime switching mrs models seem to be a natural candidate for modeling this spiky behavior however in the studies published so far the goodness of fit of the proposed models has not been a major focus while most of the models were elegant their fit to empirical data has either been not examined thoroughly or the signs of a bad fit ignored with this paper we want to fill the gap we calibrate and test a range of mrs models in an attempt to find parsimonious specifications that not only address the main characteristics of electricity prices but are statistically sound as well we find that the most universal and robust structure is that of an independent spike 3 regime model with heteroscedastic diffusion type base regime dynamics and shifted spike regime distributions

the case of negative day ahead electricity prices in recent years germany has significantly increased its share of electricity produced from renewable sources which is mainly due to the renewable energy act eeg the eeg substantially impacts the dynamics of intra day electricity prices by increasing the likelihood of negative prices in this paper we present a non gaussian process to model german intra day electricity prices and propose an estimation procedure for this model most importantly our model is able to generate extreme positive and negative spikes a simulation study demonstrates the ability of our model to capture the characteristics of the data

stochastic price modeling of high volatility mean reverting spike prone commodities the australian wholesale spot electricity market it is commonly known that wholesale spot electricity markets exhibit high price volatility strong mean reversion and frequent extreme price spikes this paper employs a basic stochastic model a mean reverting model and a regime switching model to capture these features in the australian national electricity market nem comprising the interconnected markets of new south wales queensland south australia and victoria daily spot prices from 1 january 1999 to 31 december 2004 are employed the results show that the regime switching model outperforms the basic stochastic and mean reverting models electricity prices are also found to exhibit stronger mean reversion after a price spike than in the normal period and price volatility is more than fourteen times higher in spike periods than in normal periods the probability of a spike on any given day ranges between 5 16 in nsw and 9 44 in victoria

modelling interregional links in electricity price spikes abnormally high price spikes in spot electricity markets represent a significant risk to market participants as such a literature has developed that focuses on forecasting the probability of such spike events moving beyond simply forecasting the level of price many univariate time series models have been proposed to dealwith spikes within an individual market region this paper is the first to develop a multivariate self exciting point process model for dealing with price spikes across connected regions in the australian national electricity market the importance of the physical infrastructure connecting the regions on the transmission of spikes is examined it is found that spikes are transmitted between the regions and the size of spikes is influenced by the available transmission capacity it is also found that improved risk estimates are obtained when inter regional linkages are taken into account

inattentive consumers and international business cycles this paper presents and studies the properties of a sticky information exchange rate model where consumers and producers update their information sets infrequently introducing inattentive consumers has important implications through a mechanism resembling the limited participation models exchange rate volatility observed in the data can be addressed for reasonable values of risk aversion the model generates more persistence in output consumption and employment which brings us closer to the data impulse responses to monetary shocks are hump shaped consistent with the empirical evidence forecast errors of inattentive consumers provide a channel to reduce the correlation of relative consumption and real exchange rate the decline in the correlation is quantitatively small for our benchmark model model generates a substantial amount of consumer forecast errors when producers are attentive and productivity shocks are persistent this specification results in a large decline of the correlation of real exchange rate and relative consumption due to consumer inattentiveness when trade elasticity is set to values at the low end of macro estimates or at higher values consistent with sectoral estimates the correlation is in the negative territory with inattentive consumers

carbon markets and technological innovation this paper examines the effects of firm level innovation in carbon abatement technologies on optimal cap and trade schemes with and without price controls we characterize optimal cap and trade regulation with a price cap and a price floor and compare it to the special cases of pure taxation and a simple emissions cap innovation shifts the tradeoff between price and quantity based instruments towards quantitybased emissions trading schemes more specifically an increase in innovation effectiveness lowers the optimal emissions cap and leads to relaxed price controls unless the slope of the marginal environmental damage curve is small because of the decrease in the emissions cap innovation in abatement technologies can lead to a higher expected carbon price so as to provide sufficient incentives for private r d investments the expected carbon price decreases once innovative technologies are widely used

dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade the j curve the authors provide a theoretical interpretation of two features of international data the countercyclical movements in net exports and the tendency for the trade balance to be negatively correlated with current and future movements in terms of trade but positively correlated with past movements they document the same properties in a two country stochastic growth model in which trade fluctuations reflect in large part the dynamics of capital formation the authors find that their general equilibrium perspective is essential the relation between the trade balance and the terms of trade depends critically on the source of fluctuations copyright 1994 by american economic association

consumption and real exchange rates in dynamic economies with non traded goods abstract we examine the possibility that non traded goods may account for several striking features of international macroeconomic data large persistent deviations from purchasing power parity small correlations of aggregate consumption fluctuations across countries and substantial international real interest rate differentials a dynamic exchange economy is used to show that non traded goods in principle can account for each of these phenomena in the theory there is a close relation between fluctuations in consumption ratios and those in bilateral real exchange rates but we find little evidence for this relation in time series data for eight oecd countries

after kyoto alternative mechanisms to control global warming after more than a decade of negotiations and planning under the framework convention on climate change fccc the first binding international agreement to control the emissions of greenhouse gases has come into effect in the kyoto protocol the first budget period of 2008 2012 is at hand moreover the scientific evidence on greenhouse warming strengthens steadily as observational evidence of warming accumulates the institutional framework of the protocol has taken hold solidly in the european union s emissions trading scheme ets which covers almost half of europe s carbon dioxide emissions notwithstanding this apparent success the kyoto protocol is widely seen as somewhere between troubled and terminal early troubles came with the failure to include the major developing countries along with lack of an agreedupon mechanism to include new countries and extend the agreement to new periods the major blow came when the united states withdrew from the treaty in 2001 by 2002 the protocol covered only 30 percent of global emissions while the hard enforcement mechanism in the ets accounts for about 8 percent of global emissions even if the current protocol is extended models indicate that it will have little impact on global temperature change unless there is a dramatic breakthrough or a new design the protocol threatens to be seen as a monument to institutional overreach nations are now beginning to consider the structure of climate change policies for the period after 2008 to 2012 some countries states cities companies and even universities are adopting their own climate change policies are there in fact alternatives to the scheme of tradable emissions permits embodied in the protocol the fact is that alternative approaches have not had a serious hearing among natural scientists or among policymakers what are some alternatives for global public goods there are three potential approaches command and control regulation quantity oriented market approaches and taxor price based regimes of these only the tradable quantity and the price like regimes have any hope of being reasonably efficient under a tradable quantity approach an agreement proceeds by setting limits on emissions by different countries the limits are partially or wholly transferable among countries this is the approach taken under the kyoto protocol this approach has very limited international experience under existing protocols such as the cfc chlorofluorocarbon mechanisms and somewhat broader experience under national trading regimes such as the u s sulfur dioxide regime a radically different approach is to use harmonized prices fees or taxes as a method of coordinating policies among countries this approach has no international experience in the environmental area although it has modest experience nationally in such areas as the u s tax on ozone depleting chemicals on the other hand the use of harmonized price type measures has extensive international experience in fiscal and trade policies such as with the harmonization of taxes in the european union and harmonized tariffs in international trade these thoughts on the structure of international agreements to control global warming should not be regarded as negotiating strategies

elements of emission market design an experimental analysis of california s market for greenhouse gas allowances abstract we use a set of economic experiments to test the effects of some novel features of california s new controls on greenhouse gas emissions the california cap and trade scheme imposes limits on allowance ownership uses a tiered price containment reserve sale and settles allowance auctions based on the lowest accepted bid we examine the effects of these features on market liquidity efficiency and price variability we find that tight holding limits substantially reduce banking which in turn reduces market liquidity this impairs the ability of traders to smooth prices over time resulting in lower efficiency and higher price variability the price containment reserve while increasing the supply of allowances available to traders does not appear to mitigate the effects of tight holding limits on market outcomes as a result the imposition of holding limits in the allowance market may have the consequence of increasing the likelihood of the market manipulation that they were intended to prevent finally we find that the choice between lowest accepted bid and highest rejected bid for the allowance auction pricing rule does not have a significant effect on market outcomes

modelling price and volatility inter relationships in the australian wholesale spot electricity markets this paper examines the inter relationships of wholesale spot electricity prices among the four regional electricity markets in the australian national electricity market nem namely new south wales queensland south australia and victoria using the constant conditional correlation and tse and tsui s tse y k tsui a k c 2002 a multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with time varying correlations journal of business and economic statistics 20 3 351 362 and engle s engle r 2002 dynamic conditional correlation a sample class of multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models journal of business and economic statistics 20 3 339 350 dynamic conditional correlation multivariate garch models tse and tsui s tse y k tsui a k c 2002 a multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with time varying correlations journal of business and economic statistics 20 3 351 362 dynamic conditional correlation multivariate garch model which takes account of the student t specification produces the best results at the univariate garch 1 1 level the mean equations indicate the presence of positive own mean spillovers in all four markets and little evidence of mean spillovers from the other lagged markets in the dynamic conditional correlation equation the highest conditional correlations are evident between the well connected markets indicating the presence of strong interdependence between these markets with weaker interdependence between the not so well interconnected markets

a future for carbon taxes abstract carbon taxes have been frequently advocated as a cost effective instrument for reducing emissions however in the practice of environmental policies only six countries have implemented taxes based on the carbon content of the energy products in this paper we evaluate carbon taxes with regard to their competitiveness distributional and environmental impacts the evidence shows that carbon taxes may be an interesting policy option and that their main negative impacts may be compensated through the design of the tax and the use of the generated fiscal revenues

when does a carbon tax on fossil fuels stimulate biofuels a carbon tax is an efficient economic instrument to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide released from fossil fuel burning if designed properly it could also help significantly to promote renewable energy using a multi sector multi country computable general equilibrium model this study investigates under what circumstances a carbon tax would help stimulate penetration of biofuels into the energy supply mix for road transportation in various countries and regions around the world this study shows that a carbon tax cum biofuel subsidy policy where a carbon tax is introduced to fossil fuels and part of the tax revenue is used to finance the biofuel subsidy would significantly help stimulate market penetration of biofuels on the other hand a carbon tax alone policy where the entire tax revenue is recycled to households through a lump sum transfer does not help stimulate biofuels significantly even at higher tax rates although the carbon tax cum subsidy policy would cause higher loss in economic output at the global level as compared to the carbon tax alone policy the incremental loss is relatively small the key policy insight drawn from the study is that if a carbon tax were to be implemented in an economy for the purpose of climate change mitigation recycling part of its revenue to finance biofuel subsidies would significantly help stimulate biofuels

transmission of prices and price volatility in australian electricity spot markets a multivariate garch analysis this paper examines the transmission of spot electricity prices and price volatility among the five regional electricity markets in the australian national electricity market namely new south wales queensland south australia the snowy mountains hydroelectric scheme and victoria a multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model is used to identify the source and magnitude of price and price volatility spillovers the results indicate the presence of positive own mean spillovers in only a small number of markets and no mean spillovers between any of the markets this appears to be directly related to the physical transfer limitations of the present system of regional interconnection nevertheless the large number of significant own volatility and cross volatility spillovers in all five markets indicates the presence of strong autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity effects this indicates that shocks in some markets will affect price volatility in others finally and contrary to evidence from studies in north american electricity markets the results also indicate that australian electricity spot prices are stationary

econometric modeling of regional electricity spot prices in the australian market abstract wholesale electricity markets are increasingly integrated via high voltage interconnectors and inter regional trade in electricity is growing to model this we consider a spatial equilibrium model of price formation where constraints on inter regional flows result in three distinct equilibria in prices we use this to motivate an econometric model for the distribution of observed electricity spot prices that captures many of their unique empirical characteristics the econometric model features supply and inter regional trade cost functions which are estimated using bayesian monotonic regression smoothing methodology a copula multivariate time series model is employed to capture additional dependence both cross sectional and serial in regional prices the marginal distributions are nonparametric with means given by the regression means the model has the advantage of preserving the heavy right hand tail in the predictive densities of price we fit the model to half hourly spot price data in the five interconnected regions of the australian national electricity market the fitted model is then used to measure how both supply and price shocks in one region are transmitted to the distribution of prices in all regions in subsequent periods finally to validate our econometric model we show that prices forecast using the proposed model compares favorably with those from some benchmark alternatives

macroeconomic expectations of households and professional forecasters economists have long emphasized the importance of expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes yet there has been almost no recent effort to model actual empirical expectations data instead m acroeconomists usually simply assume that expectations are rational this paper shows that while empirical household expectations are not rational in the usual sense expectational dynamics are well captured by a model in which households views derive from news reports of the views of professional forecasters which in turn may be rational the model s estimates imply that people only occasionally pay attention to news reports this inattention generates stickyness in aggregate expectations with important macroeconomic consequences

environmental tax reform efficiency and political feasibility although market based environmental measures like uniform co2 taxes reach a given standard at minimal cost they do not prevail in real world policies an effciency oriented environmental policy fails as it involves a redistributen of pollution rights resulting in a strong and generally effective opposition of the groups that forego economic rents the present paper analyzes the tradoff between efficiency and political feasibility of several co2 tax and reimbursement schemes using a computable general equilibrium model of switzerland the simulation results indicate that a policy combining a uniform co2 tax with differentiated labor subsidies preventing intersectoral redistribution is a better solution for the tradeoff than the presently existing tax schemes in various countries

current account dynamics under information rigidity and imperfect capital mobility abstract the current account in developed countries is highly persistent and volatile in comparison to their output growth the standard intertemporal current account model with rational expectations re fails to explain the observed current account and consumption dynamics the re model extended with imperfect capital mobility by shibata and shintani 1998 can account for the consumption dynamics but only at the cost of the explanatory power for the volatility of the current account this paper replaces re in the intertemporal current account model with sticky information si in which consumers are inattentive to shocks to their income the si model can better explain a persistent and volatile current account than the re model but it overpredicts the persistence of changes in consumption the si model extended with imperfect capital mobility explains both the current account and consumption provided that sufficiently high degrees of information rigidity and imperfect capital mobility are considered

what will china s carbon emission trading market affect with only electricity sector involvement a cge based study abstract on december 29 2017 china s carbon trading scheme ets was officially launched and it may be the largest emission trading platform in the world this paper establishes 5 counter measured scenarios based on the recently launched china s national ets market and constructs a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium model to study the impact of national ets on the economy energy and environment we find that the national ets will have a negative impact on gdp by 0 19 1 44 the national ets can significantly increase the price of electricity however the increase in the prices of other commodities will be much lower than that of electricity as long as the mechanism of the ets market remains unchanged emission reduction per year will increase linearly economic output and co2 emission are sensitive to annual decline factor adf this paper argues that china s national ets market is an effective tool to reduce co2 emission and we suggest that adf could be 0 5 when allocating carbon allowance for the electricity sector this could balance economic output and co2 reduction also it is easy to achieve the goal of double control total amount and intensity in china

strategic bidding and rebidding in electricity markets abstract successful deregulation in electricity markets depends crucially on the ability of market regulation to promote and maintain free competition there are however important physical characteristics in electricity markets such as the constraints imposed by the physical transmission infrastructure that have the potential to undermine competition and provide opportunities for market participants to exploit temporary positions of market power in this paper the regional market of queensland australia is analysed it is found that strategic behaviour by generators exists and is closely related to the occurrence of the kind of extreme price events that characterise many deregulated electricity markets in addition rebidding behaviour by base load generators immediately after extreme price events is shown to have negative impacts on the operation of the market the key message is that promotion of competition in electricity markets can have undesirable consequences unless the regulatory policy is carefully designed to counter strategic behaviour by market participants

expectations and exchange rate dynamics a state dependent pricing approach abstract this paper presents a two country dsge model with state dependent pricing as in dotsey et al dotsey m king r g and wolman a l 1999 state dependent pricing and the general equilibrium dynamics of money and output quarterly journal of economics 114 655 690 and variable demand elasticity as in kimball kimball m s 1995 the quantitative analytics of the basis neomonetarist model journal of money credit and banking 27 1241 1277 following a domestic monetary expansion the model predicts i positive hump shaped responses of domestic output and consumption ii positive spillover effects on foreign output and consumption iii a high international output correlation relative to consumption correlation iv a delayed increase in domestic and foreign inflation v a delayed nominal exchange rate overshooting vi a deterioration in the terms of trade and vii a j curve in the trade balance the model matches the impulse responses from an identified var more closely than an otherwise identical model with time dependent pricing

electricity wholesale market prices in europe convergence abstract this paper tests the hypothesis that the ongoing restructuring process in the european electricity sector has led to a common european market for electricity based on a principal component analysis pca of wholesale electricity prices in 2002 2006 we reject the assumption of full market integration for several pairs of countries the weaker hypothesis of bilateral convergence is accepted based on unit root tests kpss and adf and a convergence test based on filtered pairwise price relations this indicates that the efforts to develop a single european market for electricity were so far only partially successful we show that the daily auction prices of scarce cross border transmission capacities are insufficient to explain the persistence of international price differentials empirically our findings confirm the insufficiency of explicit capacity auctions as stated in the theoretical literature

integration and shock transmissions across european electricity forward markets abstract new results are presented relating to the integration of the french german british dutch and spanish power markets at day ahead week ahead one month ahead and two month ahead lead times overall there is evidence of market integration increasing over time despite an underlying inefficiency in each market with respect to the forward and spot price convergence the spatial analysis on a financial dimension is undertaken using causality tests cointegration and impulse response techniques for both price levels and volatilities in general we find less influence of the size and proximity of neighbouring markets than other studies more integration at baseload than peak and surprisingly less integration in forwards than spot prices

sticky price and sticky information price setting models what is the difference using a partial equilibrium framework mankiw and reis 2002 show that a sticky information model can generate a lagged and gradual inflation response after a monetary policy shock whereas a sticky price model cannot our paper demonstrates that that finding is sensitive to their model s parameterization to determine a plausible parameterization we specify a general equilibrium model with sticky information in that model we find that inflation peaks only one period after a monetary disturbance a sensitivity analysis of our results reveals that the inflation peak is delayed by including real rigidities when the monetary policy instrument is money growth whereas inflation peaks immediately when the policy instrument is the nominal interest rate

cap and trade taxes and distributional conflict enacting market based environmental regulation such as emissions taxes and cap and trade programs often create rents that are contested by agents in this paper we create a framework that compares social welfare from alternative market based environmental policy instruments under the presence of rent seeking we show that contrary to the commonly held view non revenue raising instruments nrris are in many cases preferable over revenue raising instruments rris we find that the choice of instrument depends on the size of a potential revenue recycling effect and the level of preassigned rents

a long term short term model for daily electricity prices with dynamic volatility abstract in this paper we introduce a new stochastic long term short term model for short term electricity prices and apply it to four major european indices namely to the german dutch uk and nordic one we give evidence that all time series contain certain periodic mostly annual patterns and show how to use the wavelet transform a tool of multiresolution analysis for filtering purpose the wavelet transform is also applied to separate the long term trend from the short term oscillation in the seasonal adjusted log prices in all time series we find evidence for dynamic volatility which we incorporate by using a bivariate garch model with constant correlation eventually we fit various models from the existing literature to the data and come to the conclusion that our approach performs best for the error distribution the normal inverse gaussian distribution shows the best fit

modeling and forecasting multivariate electricity price spikes abstract we consider the problem of forecasting the occurrence of extreme prices in the australian electricity markets from high frequency spot prices in particular we are interested in the simultaneous occurrence of such so called spikes in two or more markets our approach is based on a novel dynamic model for multivariate binary outcomes which allows the latent variables driving these observed outcomes to follow a vector autoregressive process furthermore the model is constructed using a copula representation for the joint distribution of the resulting innovations this has several advantages over the standard multivariate probit model first it allows for nonlinear dependence between the error terms second the distribution of the latent errors can be chosen freely third the computational burden can be greatly reduced making estimation feasible in higher dimensions and for large samples the model is applied to spikes in half hourly electricity prices in four interconnected australian markets the multivariate model provides a superior fit compared to single equation models and generates better forecasts for spike probabilities furthermore evidence of spillover dynamics between the markets is revealed

germany s nuclear power plant closures and the integration of electricity markets in europe this paper examines the potential implications of national policies that lead to a sudden increase of wind power in the electricity mix for interconnected european electricity markets more specifically it examines market integration before and after the closures of eight nuclear power plants that occurred within a period of a few months in germany during 2011 the short and long run interrelationships of daily electricity spot prices from november 2009 to october 2012 in apx endex belpex epex de epex fr nordpool omel and swissix and wind power in the german system are analysed two mgarch multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models with dynamic correlations are used to assess spot market behaviour in the short run and a fractional cointegration analysis is conducted to investigate changes in the long run behaviour of electricity spot prices results show positive time varying correlations between spot prices in markets with substantial shared interconnector capacity a negative association between wind power penetration in germany and electricity spot prices in the german and neighbouring markets and for most markets a decreasing speed in mean reversion

a tale of two market failures technology and environmental policy abstract market failures associated with environmental pollution interact with market failures associated with the innovation and diffusion of new technologies these combined market failures provide a strong rationale for a portfolio of public policies that foster emissions reduction as well as the development and adoption of environmentally beneficial technology both theory and empirical evidence suggest that the rate and direction of technological advance is influenced by market and regulatory incentives and can be cost effectively harnessed through the use of economic incentive based policy in the presence of weak or nonexistent environmental policies investments in the development and diffusion of new environmentally beneficial technologies are very likely to be less than would be socially desirable positive knowledge and adoption spillovers and information problems can further weaken innovation incentives while environmental technology policy is fraught with difficulties a long term view suggests a strategy of experimenting with policy approaches and systematically evaluating their success

a dynamic network analysis of spot electricity prices in the australian national electricity market abstract this study applies dynamic network analysis to the power sector examining the relationship between regional spot electricity prices in the australian national electricity market nem in particular we employ principal component analysis and generate granger causality networks to examine the degree of interconnectedness of the nem in a time varying setting we find that the derived measures of interdependence can be related to actual market events such as price spikes unexpected high demand for electricity sudden increases in price volatility rebidding of dominant generators the temporary or permanent outage of major power stations and upgrades and limitations in transmission capacity in the analysed network we find that stronger dependence is exhibited by regional markets that are linked through interconnectors while the direction of granger causality can be related to interregional trade we further examine the usefulness of the derived measures for forecasting distributional characteristics of spot prices such as the maximum price volatility price spreads or upcoming periods of price spikes our results suggest that the derived network measures have predictive power albeit limited for the behaviour of spot electricity prices in the nem

emissions taxes versus intensity standards second best environmental policies with incomplete regulation the best emissions tax or emissions cap may be an inferior instrument under incomplete regulation leakage without leakage an intensity standard regulating emissions per unit of output is inferior due to an implicit output subsidy this inefficiency can be eliminated by an additional consumption tax with leakage an intensity standard can dominate the optimal emissions tax since the implicit output subsidy prevents leakage the addition of a consumption tax improves an intensity standard s efficiency may prevent leakage and may be efficient comparing intensity standards to output based updating shows that the latter dominates if updating is sufficiently flexible