testing for nonlinear dependence in daily foreign exchange rates the purpose of this article is to investigate whether daily changes in five major foreign exchange rates contain any nonlinearities although the data contain no linear correlation evidence indicates the presence of substantial nonlinearity in a multiplicative rather than additive form further examination reveals that a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model can explain a large part of the nonlinearities for all five exchange rates copyright 1989 by the university of chicago

testing the unbiasedness hypothesis in the forward foreign exchange market a specification analysis abstract this paper evaluates two popular regression methods of testing the unbiasedness hypothesis in the forward foreign exchange market for the 30 day canada united states forward foreign exchange market the evidence overwhelmingly indicates that it is inappropriate to treat the structure of the systematic and stochastic components of the test relations as constant over time hence conclusions inferred from parameter significance testing based upon full sample estimation can be very misleading accordingly we argue for a specification analysis of the test relations and more explicit modelling of market fundamentals

forecasting foreign exchange rates with an intrinsically nonlinear dynamic speed of adjustment model forecasting foreign exchange rates is an important but difficult process therefore it is important to use a superior forecasting model the paper takes up this criterion and proposes to describe and forecast foreign exchange rates by developing an intrinsically nonlinear model with variable and dynamic speeds of adjustment it is found that the speed of adjusting the random or expected to the equilibrium rate is very slow implying that fiscal policy statistically insignificat and monetary policy statistically significant may be ineffective to induce changes in the adjustment speed we also find that the nonlinear dynamic model improves forecasting performance implying that nonlinearities in the sense of functional forms are exploitable for improved point forecasting of foreign exchange rates

analysis of lumber and pulpwood production in a partial adjustment model with dynamic and variable speeds of adjustment this article proposes a partial adjustment model in which the speed of adjustment is a linear function of policy and economic variables rather than fixed the model is applied to analyze the behavior of lumber and pulpwood production since the model is overparameterized and intrinsically nonlinear the task of estimation is done by the nonlinear least squares method using quarterly data covering the period from 1961 through 1983 both the adjustment speeds of lumber and pulpwood production are found to vary inversely with the discrepancy between the actual and the expected interest rate the adjustment speed of lumber production is also found to shift positively with the difference between the actual and the expected government expenditure in addition the results show that the adjustment speed of lumber production suffers from a longterm declining trend whereas the adjustment speed of pulpwood production exhibits a long term upward sweep and that desired outputs of lumber and pulpwood respond negati

real options analysis of investment in solar vs wind energy diversification strategies under uncertain prices and costs in this paper we study a community or firm considering to diversify its investment in two distinct renewable energy technologies namely wind and solar pv electricity we assume technological learning curves as a function of cumulative capital investment a real options approach is applied as it takes into account uncertainty about prices and learning as well as irreversibility associated with investment decisions we investigate three different cases dealing with uncertainty about future electricity prices and uncertainty about the speed with which learning drives the costs of wind and solar electricity down we assess the minimum threshold for the stochastic price and the maximum electricity production cost that makes it optimal for the firm to invest in the two technologies the results show that the learning rate affects the option to invest in but reducing critical threshold for exercising it the greater the amount of capital invested the more learning stimulates earlier exercising of the option to invest the firm will then anticipate the option to invest and exercise it for lower critical threshold values if all capital is invested in one technology if capital investment is diversified the option should be exercised at a higher critical threshold more uncertainty in energy prices or technology costs postpones the option to invest although investing in both solar and wind may be profitable under particular conditions of price and cost uncertainty the theoretically optimal strategy is generally investing in only one technology that is solar or wind depending on their relative initial costs and learning rates this suggests that the practice in most countries of diversifying renewable energy may reflect a mistaken strategy

testing the efficiency of the canadian u s exchange market under the assumption of no risk premium the efficiency of the canadian u s exchange market for the current float is examined more extensively than previously semi strong form tests which admit the lagged spot rate as a predictor are considered in addition to the standard weak form test these stronger tests reject the joint null hypothesis of an efficient exchange market and no risk premium for the period ending in october 1976 although not for the entire period for almost every year the current spot rate provided a better forecast of the future spot rate than did the current forward rate there is now an extensive empirical literature on testing the efficiency of various foreign exchange markets see 16 for a survey yet almost all of these tests are weak form tests or tests of the bias of the forward exchange rate as a predictor of the future spot rate such tests in the canadian u s exchange market can be found in the work of porter 20 eastman 5 kaserman 10 kohihagen 11 cornell 3 and levich 14 for the canadian float of the 1950s porter 20 and kaserman 10 found that one could not reject the unbiasedness of the forward rate eastman 5 and kohlhagen 11 rejected the unbiasedness of the forward rate for the floating period although not for the subsequent fixed period but their use of overlapping contracts means that their standard errors are biased cornell 3 and levich 14 found that in terms of the root meansquared error criterion the lagged spot rate and the lagged forward rate predicted the current spot rate equally well for more recent periods this paper examines the efficiency of the canadian u s exchange market for the current float july 1970 to december 1978 in a more extensive way than it has been previously examined from the weak form test the paper proceeds to two semi strong form tests which admit the lagged spot rate as a possible predictor throughout the paper various subperiods are considered in addition to the period as a whole

nonlinear nonparametric nonessential exchange rate estimation a wide variety of empirical exchange rate mo dels have been estimated over the years but despite the considerable energies that have been devoted to this work the economics profession has remarkably little to show for itself there is little evidence that conclusively links the bilateral exchange rates of typical oecd countries to fundamental macroeconomic determinants of exchange rates such as money output relative prices or interest differentials coefficient estimates are notoriously unstable and frequently mis signed compared with theoretical predictions exchange rate equations do not fit particularly well and forecast no better than the simplest naive alternatives recently a new class of exchange rate models was introduced by paul krugman 1988 these models provide a potential reason for the poor performance of traditional exchange rate models because they are nonlinear if the exchange rate actually depends in a nonlinear way on exogenous macroeconomic fundamentals linear exchange rate models may work poorly even though the exchange rate is closely linked to fundamentals in this paper we provide a brief sketch of some of this work as well as some preliminary evidence on the actual performance of these nonlinear models in our empirical analysis we use a nonparametric estimator that can handle a wide variety of nonlinear phenomena we examine fixed exchange rate regimes where nonlinearities should be quite easy to detect however we do not find strong empirical support for the hypothesis that the incorporation of nonlinear effects significantly improves models of exchange rate determination in section i we briefly review the theoretical literature on nonlinear target zone exchange rate models linking this work to the tests for intrinsic bubbles we draw heavily on recent papers by kenneth froot and maurice obstfeld 1989a b our methodology and data are discussed in section ii section iii contains new empirical tests for nonlinearities in exchange rate models

the implications of industrial development for diversification of fuels abstract the central role of energy in economic growth and development is substantiated by both theory and data much of the analysis of energy in economics has focused on the study of the aggregate output here we deviate from this approach and study the role of fuel diversification in industrial development we build the energy space describing the space of energy technologies which a country can use in the production of manufacturing goods as countries grow they diversify their industries producing more diverse products over time we show that the process is accompanied by diversification of fuels which countries use in the manufacturing sector in particular countries move in the energy space by adopting novel fuels while their movements can be linked to structural changes in the industry over time countries build unique production capabilities which drives divergence in fuel diversity between countries our results provide insight into the limits of fuel substitution in the manufacturing sector as well as they carry important implications for the assessment of potential reductions in co 2 emissions in the future

rebuilding trust ireland s csr plan in the light of caritas in veritate this paper seeks to contribute to the discussion on national corporate social responsibility csr plans from the perspectives of the three logics as articulated in caritas in veritate by using the irish national csr plan as an example good for business good for the community ireland s national plan on corporate social responsibility 2014 2016 maintains that csr activities can enable organisations to build relationships and trust with communities one of the consequences of the 2008 financial crisis was the decrease in trust in banking systems and in business more broadly it is well recognised that relationships of trust are essential to the life of the market the state and civil society pope emeritus benedict xvi s caritas in veritate contends that corresponding to the life of the market the state and civil society are three logics the logic of exchange i e giving to acquire the logic of public obligation i e giving through duty and the logic of gift i e giving due to solidarity this paper proposes that the normative framework of the three logics of caritas in veritate can be read into the irish national csr plan this paper argues that the examples of csr initiatives proffered by the plan could point organisations in the direction of the logic of gift and therefore enable the rebuilding of relationships of trust with citizens and communities

the statistical properties of daily foreign exchange rates 1974 1983 abstract this paper examines the statistical properties of daily rates of change of five foreign currencies from 1974 to 1983 the main purpose is to discriminate between two competing explanations for the observed heavy tails of the distribution that the data are independently drawn from a heavy tail distribution which remains fixed over time and that the data come from distributions which vary over time evidence point to the rejection of the first hypothesis further investigations show that the rejection can be attributed to changing means and variances in the data which can be described by a simple statistical model

trust and growth using data from u s states we find a positive relationship between trust and growth according to our results a 10 percentage point increase in trust increases the growth rate of gdp by 0 5 percentage points and the growth rate of manufacturing employment by 1 3 percentage points over a five year period our results are robust to the endogeneity between trust and growth

quantifying the supplier portfolio diversity of embodied energy strategic implications for strengthening energy resilience this paper investigates energy resilience of countries by quantifying the supplier diversification of both direct and embodied energy import in particular we quantify two approaches to diversify a country s supplier portfolio by lowering the dependency on each supplier portfolio diversification and by having embodied energy suppliers that are different from its direct energy suppliers portfolio differentiation we examine possibilities for strategic utilization of embodied energy trade to compensate for low diversity of direct energy trade for three types of fossil resources coal oil and gas we find that the diversity of embodied energy import is much greater than that of direct energy import of the three energy resources coal enables countries to adopt portfolio diversification and portfolio differentiation more than gas and oil our results suggest embodied energy can be considered as a transfer of energy resources across national borders that can directly benefit from the diversity of the world energy production by skipping the limited diversity of the world energy export

regulation in the european community all governments regulate economic activity in their own countries the single european market will involve a significant transfer of regulatory activity from member states to the european community as well as the initiation of regulatory activity in certain areas that have not previously been subject to regulation at all including the activities of member states themselves as in taxation or the provision of subsidies to industry why should governments wish to make such a transfer of powers what do they have to gain

forecasting foreign exchange rates in developing economies we investigate the ability of a variety of exchange rate models to forecast parallel exchange rates for developing economies in contrast to earlier studies which use actual values of the exogenous variables we employ time series forecasts of the exogenous variables an error correction version of a monetary model proposed by us that incorporates the dynamics of both short run and long run adjustment processes outperforms all other models that have been suggested earlier

corporate social responsibility theories mapping the territory the corporate social responsibility csr field presents not only a landscape of theories but also a proliferation of approaches which are controversial complex and unclear this article tries to clarify the sit uation mapping the territory by classifying the main csr theories and related approaches in four groups 1 instrumental theories in which the corporation is seen as only an instrument for wealth creation and its social activities are only a means to achieve economic results 2 political theories which concern themselves with the power of corporations in society and a responsible use of this power in the political arena 3 integrative theories in which the corporation is focused on the satisfaction of social demands and 4 ethical theories based on ethical responsibilities of corporations to society in practice each csr theory presents four dimensions related to profits political performance social demands and ethical values the findings suggest the necessity to develop a new theory on the business and society relationship which should integrate these four dimensions

the statistical distribution of exchange rates empirical evidence and economic implications the abundant evidence that changes in exchange rates have distributions with fatter tails than the normal distribution has led researchers to consider non normal distributions including the student the stable paretian and mixtures of distributions this paper compares the empirical fits of three non normal candidates and the normal distribution for daily changes in the logarithms of exchange rates using maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters and chi square goodness of fit tests the student and mixture of two normals provide the best fits but there is evidence that the distribution parameters may vary over time

exchange rates and news a multi currency approach abstract in this paper a multi currency model is used to investigate the relationship between spot exchange rates forward rates market efficiency and new information it is shown that in a world with more than two countries the error term in the standard market efficiency tests will be correlated across rates it is also shown that the exchange rate can be expressed as a function of factors known in advance which are captured by the forward rate determined in the previous period and news the empirical results presented in the paper tend to support the model s implications

strategies against shocks in power systems an analysis for the case of europe abstract electricity systems are constantly exposed to geopolitical techno economic and natural uncertainties that may endanger security of supply therefore it is crucial that policy makers concerned about it consider a variety of possible futures and not only the one that is perceived as the most likely in particular they should account for the possibility of sudden shocks in their decisions with the goal of making the system more robust however long term power system models which are an important pillar of policy decision making are typically designed to determine the cost minimal power system for a specific expected future such a system is not necessarily the most robust one by combining the classic investment optimization approach with the tools of robust decision making we analyze the viability of different strategies that may potentially increase the robustness of a power system for the case of the european power system we pursue a dedicated analysis with the european power system model limes eu based on a total of more than 40 000 model runs we find that strategies promoting the ability of countries to always produce at least 95 of their electricity demand domestically significantly help to reduce the loss of load in case of shocks such a strategy is not cost optimal for the expected future without shocks but the additional costs about 0 1 of total system costs are low compared to the benefits of significantly increasing the power system s robustness

distributed generation and distribution market diversity in europe the unbundling of the electricity power system will play a key role on the deployment of distributed generation dg in european distribution systems evolving towards smart grids the present paper firstly reviews the relevant european union eu regulatory framework specific attention is paid to the concept of unbundling of power distribution sector in europe afterwards the focus is on the current state of penetration of dg technologies in the eu member states and the corresponding interrelations with distribution features a comparison between the unbundling of the distribution and supply markets using econometric indicators such as the herfindahl hirschmann ihh and the shannon wiener isw indices is then presented finally a comparative analysis between these indices and the current level of penetration of distributed generation in most eu is shown policy recommendations conclude the paper

exchange rates innovations and forecasting in this paper an ex post forecasting experiment is performed on the basis of a version of the news model of exchange rate determination for several exchange rates the news formulation of monetary exchange rate models leads to relatively accurate ex port exchange rate forecasts at a number of forecasting horizons for a majority of the exchange rates studied however the results do not compare favorably with those obtained from the naive random walk forecasting rule thus the findings in this article provide mixed evidence with regard to a suggestion in the literature that the finding by meese and rogoff that structural models do not even outperform the random walk in an ex post forecasting experiment may be due to the fact that these models were not properly tested in a news framework the forecasting performance of structural exchange rate models has recently received considerable attention meese and rogoff 1983a b have studied the forecasting performance of several important structural exchange rate models while in sample studies of these models usually show quite satisfactory fits meese and rogoff s out of sample results based on instrumental variables estimates were not very encouraging the structural models failed to improve upon the simple random walk forecasting rule even though the models forecasts were based

diversity and security in uk electricity generation the influence of low carbon objectives abstract we explore the relationship between low carbon objectives and the strategic security of electricity in the context of the uk electricity system we consider diversity of fuel source mix to represent one dimension of security robustness against interruptions of any one source and apply two different diversity indices to the range of electricity system scenarios produced by the uk government and independent researchers our results show that low carbon objectives are uniformly associated with greater long term diversity in uk electricity generation with reference to data on wind generation we also consider the impact of source variability on a second dimension of security the reliability of generation availability we conclude that this does not undermine our fundamental conclusion that low carbon scenarios are associated with greater strategic security of supply in uk electricity we discuss reasons for this result explore sensitivities and briefly discuss possible policy instruments associated with diversity and their limitations

does the exchange rate follow a random walk a monte carlo study of four tests for a random walk abstract several authors have urged that real and nominal exchange rates follow a random walk conditions under which the exchange rate follows a random walk are reviewed in this paper many of these do not appear to hold therefore the empirical evidence presents a puzzle some evidence suggets the exchange rate follows a random walk while other evidence suggests the opposite should be true this paper attempts to reconcile the evidence it is argued that the tests for a random walk have low power monte carlo evidence on four tests for a random walk is presented that suppors this claim

resilience and electricity systems a comparative analysis electricity systems have generally evolved based on the natural resources available locally few metrics exist to compare the security of electricity supply of different countries despite the increasing likelihood of potential shocks to the power system like energy price increases and carbon price regulation this paper seeks to calculate a robust measure of national power system resilience by analysing each step in the process of transformation from raw energy to consumed electricity countries with sizeable deposits of mineral resources are used for comparison because of the need for electricity intensive metals processing we find that shifts in electricity intensive industry can be predicted based on countries power system resilience

a partial adjustment approach to evaluating and measuring the business value of information technology abstract in this paper we develop a partial adjustment approach based on the theory of partial adjustment to assess the value of information technology we also propose a performance measure derived from the approach the constrained structural or implicit and unconstrained non structural or explicit models derived from the approach are fitted into a set of panel data at the country level covering the period from 1993 to 2006 for a sample of 12 countries including the g7 nations and are estimated by the seemingly unrelated regression estimation the results produced by the models are robust with respect to the choice of the production function representing the true desired or maximum output and challenge the widely held belief that the productivity paradox has disappeared and the view that the productivity paradox exists in developing economies only the proposed approach compares favorably with the time varying stochastic production frontier approach since it is easier and simpler to apply but unlike the non parametric data envelopment analysis approach it is parametric

limits to the value of external costs based on recent insights from the field of risk analysis this paper examines some of the difficulties encountered in attempts to characterise the environmental effects of energy options as monetary externalities more than 20 different dimensions of environmental appraisal are identified and discussed in relation to the historic literature on risk assessment and a number of recent influential environmental valuation studies a survey is conducted of the results obtained over more than a decade for the external environmental costs of electricity supply options theoretical and methodological criticisms are lent support by the finding that environmental valuation results vary over a very wide range of values yielding a variety of rank orderings for the different generating options in addition the values derived for energy externalities are found to be vulnerable to the possible influence of a price imperative the paper concludes by pointing to approaches to the social appraisal of generating technologies which offer greater transparency rigour and accessibility in addressing plural and intrinsically subjective value judgements concerning the different forms and dimensions of environmental effects

time varying parameters and the out of sample forecasting performance of structural exchange rate models varying parameter estimation techniques based on recursive application of the kalman filter are used to improve the predictive performance of a class of monetary exchange rate models i find that allowing estimated parameters to vary over time enhances the models forecasting performance for the dollar pound dollar mark and dollar yen exchange rates contrary to earlier results in the literature ex post forecasts for the dollar mark rate compare favorably with those obtained from the naive random walk forecasting rule

capital budgeting under uncertainty an extended goal programming approach mathematical programming techniques have long been recognized as the most suitable approach to the complex problem of capital budgeting in corporations this is because contrary to conventional single project appraisal techniques such as the net present value method financial planners do not normally engage in project by project analysis to determine the projects that would be included in capital budgets in addition the existing chance constrained both single and multiple objectives models developed to deal with the problem of uncertainty in capital budgeting are grossly defective since they indeed address the problem of risk rather than uncertainty this paper presents an extended goal programming methodology to address the problem of capital budgeting under uncertainty to overcome the defects of chance constrained capital budgeting models in particular since financial planners frequently deal with the complex problem of capital budgeting by aggregating large numbers of small investment proposals into families of large projects the paper presents necessary and sufficient conditions for the acceptance of a set of investment projects by a business enterprise the results indicate that under uncertainty firms faced with capital rationing are less economically efficient than others that are not so faced also the results show that optimal allocation policy under uncertainty requires the actual discount rate to be greater than the market cost of capital a finding which is consistent with corporate finance practice

energy security and improvements in the function of diversity indices taiwan energy supply structure case study abstract facing the risk and uncertainty inherent in social and economic development many countries have adopted an energy supply diversification strategy in their energy security policy to control the energy import risk and cost to ensure that sufficient energy can be obtained at an affordable price level diversification helps the energy system respond to external changes and shocks diversification can also lessen the vulnerability of a single energy source to supply shocks and the market power of various energy supply sources this study develops the diversity reliability index and co vary diversity reliability index based on the hirschman herfindahl and shannon wiener indices investigates the contribution of different energy sources to the energy system and analyzes the covariance between various energies and their impacts on energy security to determine the impact of energy diversity in reducing the risk of energy supply shortages and cost fluctuations

the collapse of a european bank in the financial crisis an analysis from stakeholder and ethical perspectives fortis the leading benelux financial group had been a success story of successive mergers of bank and insurance companies with leadership in corporate social responsibility csr one year after the acquisition of the major dutch financial conglomerate abn amro the global financial crisis caused the collapse of the fortis group the purpose of this article is to use the case study of fortis s recent fall as a basis for reflective considerations on the financial crisis from stakeholder and ethical perspectives a selected number of key events of the history of the dramatic crisis at fortis will be analysed from different ethical frameworks special consideration will be given to fairness of communication shareholder activism and conflicts of interests of ceo s mergers opportunities a confrontation between the csr policy and the reality raises the fundamental questions why the powerful csr guidelines and ethical principles did not help in the assessment of the risks

sargan s wage equation a theoretical and empirical reconstruction sargan s 1964 wage equation is respecified within the feedback control framework to which it belongs and confronted with quaterly british data the amended version clearly out performs the original and a version estimated over 1967 i 1974 iv yields acceptable predictions through 1975 i 1977 iv

a retrospective analysis of benefits and impacts of u s renewable portfolio standards abstract as states consider revising or developing renewable portfolio standards rps they are evaluating policy costs benefits and other impacts we present the first u s national level assessment of state rps program benefits and impacts focusing on new renewable electricity resources used to meet rps compliance obligations in 2013 in our central case scenario reductions in life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from displaced fossil fuel generated electricity resulted in 2 2 billion of global benefits health and environmental benefits from reductions in criteria air pollutants sulfur dioxide nitrogen oxides and particulate matter 2 5 were even greater estimated at 5 2 billion in the central case further benefits accrued in the form of reductions in water withdrawals and consumption for power generation finally although best considered resource transfers rather than net societal benefits new renewable electricity generation used for rps compliance in 2013 also supported nearly 200 000 u s based gross jobs and reduced wholesale electricity prices and natural gas prices saving consumers a combined 1 3 4 9 billion in total the estimated benefits and impacts well exceed previous estimates of rps compliance costs

tests of rational expectations and no risk premium in forward exchange markets abstract this paper tests the simple efficiency hypothesis i e that traders have rational expectations and charge no risk premium in the forward exchange market it uses a statistical procedure which is consistent under a large class of heteroscedasticity and a set of data which takes into account the institutional features of the forward exchange market the results show that this procedure leads to stronger rejections of the simple efficiency hypothesis than do procedures using the standard assumption of homoscedasticity

fuel mix diversification incentives in liberalized electricity markets a mean variance portfolio theory approach monte carlo simulations of gas coal and nuclear plant investment returns are used as inputs of a mean variance portfolio optimization to identify optimal base load generation portfolios for large electricity generators in liberalized electricity markets we study the impact of fuel electricity and co2 price risks and their degree of correlation on optimal plant portfolios high degrees of correlation between gas and electricity prices as observed in most european markets reduce gas plant risks and make portfolios dominated by gas plant more attractive long term power purchase contracts and or a lower cost of capital can rebalance optimal portfolios towards more diversified portfolios with larger shares of nuclear and coal plants

diversity and ignorance in electricity supply investment addressing the solution rather than the problem the need for diversity has been cited as a rationale for important recent investment decisions in the uk electricity supply sector it is invoked as the principal argument for continuing major government intervention yet there exists no formal analytical basis for the concept why is diversity good what is meant by diversification what is it that must be diversified what trade off should be struck between diversity and other measures of performance the resulting ambiguity causes confusion and is vulnerable to special pleading despite this this paper argues that diversification offers a superior alternative to probabilistic approaches towards uncertainty and ignorance in electricity supply investments and proposes a formal analytical approach a quantitative index of diversity is borrowed from information theory and used to derive a value for the government s implicit willingness to pay for diversity in the uk electricity supply mix this is then applied in a pilot exercise to the problem of optimizing the diversity and financial performance of the supply portfolio although provisional the results are relevant to the government s forthcoming nuclear review particularly in assessing the relative levels of support for nuclear power and renewable energy

fossil fuel dependence and vulnerability of electricity generation case of selected european countries abstract this paper analyses the diversity of fuel mix for electricity generation in selected european countries and investigates how the fuel bill has changed as a share of gdp between 1995 and 2005 the drivers of fuel dependence related vulnerability are determined using laspeyres index decomposition a what if analysis is carried out to analyse the changes in the vulnerability index due to changes in the drivers and a scenario analysis is finally used to investigate the future vulnerability in the medium term the paper finds that the british and the dutch electricity systems are less diversified compared to three other countries analysed the gas dependence of the dutch and italian systems made them vulnerable but the vulnerability increased in all countries in recent years gas price and the level of dependence on gas for power generation mainly influenced the gas vulnerability the united kingdom saw a substantial decline in its coal vulnerability due to a fall in coal price and coal dependence in electricity generation the scenario analysis indicates that uk is likely to face greater gas vulnerability in the future due to increased gas dependence in electricity generation and higher import dependence

minding our business what the united states government has done and can do to ensure that u s multinationals act responsibly in foreign markets the united states government does not mandate that us based firms follow us social and environmental law in foreign markets however because many developing countries do not have strong human rights labor and environmental laws many multinationals have adopted voluntary corporate responsibility initiatives to self regulate their overseas social and environmental practices this article argues that voluntary actions while important are insufficient to address the magnitude of problems companies confront as they operate in developing countries where governance is often inadequate the united states can do more to ensure that its multinationals act responsibly everywhere they operate first policymakers should define the social and environmental responsibilities of global companies they must consistently make their expectations for global business clear and underscore that this objective can often be accomplished without mandates second the us should closely examine the policies that undermine global corporate social responsibility csr and address the many conflicting signals sent by policymakers third the president should make the us government a csr model by examining how to use its purchasing power to promote human rights finally the us government should require pension funds to report on the social and environmental consequences of their investments in these ways americans can mind our business and thus make sure that us based firms do not undermine social and environmental progress when they operate in the developing world

long term energy services security what is it and how can it be measured and valued abstract the paper reviews some recent approaches towards measuring the extent of long term energy security and security externality valuation it starts out to discuss the contextual connotations of notions of energy security in medium to long term time frames and reviews some indicators that have been proposed to quantify it special attention is paid to two of these approaches which the authors helped to develop i e diversity based indices and the supply demand index the paper takes issue with conventional welfare economic approaches that neglect i the scope on the demand side for raising security and ii negative feedback mechanisms of socio political impacts of international rent transfers in fossil fuels exporting countries the concept of energy services security is proposed with a demand side focus this enables application of an integrated approach to gauge the resilience of a society to meet the needs of its population for energy services over longer timescales ahead from various interrelated perspectives propositions are made on the attribution of security externalities to the use of fossil fuels policies and suggestions for further improvements of measures for energy services security

the forward rate as a predictor of the future spot rate a stochastic coefficient approach this paper develops a stochastic coefficient model to examine the unbiased forward rate hypothesis for the period january 1974 to august 1983 tests from the full sample estimations confirm the null hypothesis however the re sults from the brown durbin evans 1975 test and the chow test indic ate that the exchange rate behavior departs from parameter constancy using joint rolling regressions for the subsample estimations the a uthor finds evidence that the unbiasedness hypothesis in most cases s hould be rejected and that the estimated parameters sensitive to new information vary through different subsample periods the out of sa mple test concludes that incorporation of the stochastic properties o f the parameters into the model improves accuracy of exchange rate pr edictions copyright 1988 by ohio state university press

examining the resilience of national energy systems measurements of diversity in production based and consumption based electricity in the globalization of trade networks abstract energy is a critical component of achieving sustainable development in addition to the three aspects of promoting access renewables and efficiency the dimension of resilience in energy systems should also considered the implementation of resilient energy systems requires a quantitative understanding of the socio economic practices underlying such systems specifically in line with the increasing globalization of trade there remains a critical knowledge gap on the link between embodied energy in the production and consumption of traded goods to bridge this knowledge gap we investigate the resilience of global energy systems through an examination of a diversity measure of global embodied electricity trade based on multi regional input output mrio networks the significance of this research lies in its ability to utilize high resolution mrio data sets in assessing the resilience of national energy systems this research indicates that secure and responsible consumption requires the diversification of not only energy generation but also energy imports this research will lay the ground for further research in the governance of resilience in global energy networks

some linear and nonlinear thoughts on exchange rates abstract after discussing the inconclusive results of linear structural models as applied to exchange rates this paper assesses the possibilities of using a particular form of nonlinear estimation called alternating conditional expectations as i a diagnostic tool and ii a forecasting method it contrasts the forecast performance of various linear in levels in differences error correction and nonlinear in levels in differences specifications of a sticky price monetary model augmented by a relative wealth variable the diagnostic results are as follows the optimal transformations are almost always nonlinear and often nonmonotonic forecasting results in sample and out of sample nonlinear forecasts yield substantial improvements over a random walk however in exercises with forecasts from rolling regressions the random walk specification still dominates over one quarter forecast horizons albeit only marginally and insignificantly so nonlinear specifications do slightly better than linear competitors at four quarter horizons

floating exchange rates expectations and new information abstract this paper analyzes the relationship between forward exchange rates future spot rates and new information a stochastic model of exchange rate determination is used to formally show how unanticipated changes in the exchange rate determinants or news affect the spot rate the empirical analysis indicates that new information plays an important role in explaining the market forecasting error or difference between the spot rate and the forward rate determined in the previous period

fostering corporate social responsibility through public initiative from the eu to the spanish case should csr be approached only on a voluntary basis or should it be complemented with a compulsory regulatory framework what type of government intervention is more effective in fostering csr among companies this paper is an attempt to answer these questions reviewing the debate between proponents of the voluntary case and the obligatory case for csr and critically analysing current international government led initiatives to foster csr among companies and national government led initiatives in the eu area finally the paper focuses on the spanish case as an example of the failure of an exclusively voluntary approach despite the rapid uprise of csr spain is still far behind late in csr promotion strategies most action has been undertaken by companies themselves with no common guidelines governmental support or independent verification the lack of a regulatory framework for csr or ethical investment issues and the virtual absence of other indirect incentives explains the misbalance between private public and third sector initiatives based on the spanish context which is quite similar to other non oecd countries the authors call for a more proactive government position in csr related issues the conclusions of the paper detail the features of this regulatory framework and other policies to promote csr in spain as well as in other oecd countries

vulnerability of the economy to the potential disturbances of energy supply a logic based model with application to the case of china the disturbances of energy supply that may result from both external and domestic events create a significant threat for national economy due to potential impacts on the productivity employment and overall economic growth building scenarios of the economy s vulnerability to these disturbances is delicate because of the significant number of interrelated factors that should be taken into consideration in this paper a logic based model lbm is developed which allows for defining exploring and assessing the determinants and the indicators of the economy s vulnerability related to the energy supply disturbances within a coherent scenarios assessment framework the proposed model is illustrated with the case of china after developing the general framework three particular scenarios are investigated based on the case study the performance and limitations of the model are analyzed and its ability to evaluate national energy policies is discussed finally some recommendations for further improvements are made

valuing diversity in energy supply abstract there is renewed interest in the role of supply diversity in promoting energy security this paper explores ways of valuing diversity a possible incentive mechanism for promoting diversity which takes account of underlying disparities between different technology options is developed the mechanism provides a way of trading off cost and diversity and results in an efficient cost diversity frontier by analogy with financial portfolio theory if all technologies are believed to be equally disparate the appropriate mechanism is a levy imposed on market share if the technologies are not equally disparate the levy needs to be adjusted by technology specific multipliers that take account of levels of disparity and patterns of market share the analysis is applied to two stylised situations in the long run equilibrium case the implications of both different patterns of disparity and different values attached to diversity are investigated the paper also explores the implications of applying such a mechanism to the current great britain electricity system the implications in terms of financial flows for both the market as a whole and for individual operators are investigated finally the appropriateness of such a mechanism in the light of other policy goals and possible future research directions is discussed

public policies on corporate social responsibility the role of governments in europe over the last decade corporate social responsibility csr has been defined first as a concept whereby companies decide voluntarily to contribute to a better society and cleaner environment and second as a process by which companies manage their relationship with stakeholders european commission 2001 nowadays csr has become a priority issue on governments agendas this has changed governments capacity to act and impact on social and environmental issues in their relationship with companies but has also affected the framework in which csr public policies are designed governments are incorporating multi stakeholder strategies this article analyzes the csr public policies in european advanced democracies and more specifically the eu 15 countries and provides explanatory keys on how governments have understood designed and implemented their csr public policies the analysis has entailed the classification of csr public policies taking into consideration the actor to which the governments policies were addressed this approach to the analysis of csr public policies in the eu 15 countries leads us to observe coinciding lines of action among the different countries analyzed which has enabled us to propose a four ideal typology model for governmental action on csr in europe partnership business in the community sustainability and citizenship and agora the main contribution of this article is to propose an analytical framework to analyze csr public policies which provide a perspective on the relationships between governments businesses and civil society stakeholders and enable us to incorporate the analysis of csr public policies into a broader approach focused on social governance

energy planning and modern portfolio theory a review abstract modern portfolio theory mpt stands as a widely accepted methodology to meet the challenges associated with the definition of energy planning for a particular territory or region energy planning is thus framed as an investment selection problem mpt is characterized by having a wider capacity and conceptual richness than the other previously used methodologies such as the individual least cost alternative the portfolio approach is based on solving for an objective function that seeks to minimize either the cost or the risk of the portfolio subject to different constraints considering that real electricity generation assets can be defined in terms of cost or return and economic risk for each alternative technology the relevant portfolios are the result of solving the optimization model to determine the efficient cost risk frontier the work presented here consists of an exhaustive review of the literature in relation to the application of mpt methodology to the field of energy planning and electricity production a new classification is proposed from a financial perspective of the selection of investments from the preceding studies it delves deeper into the explanation of the limits to the methodology and into the concept of risk which is key from both a financial and an energy perspective the main methodological contributions found in the literature are examined that are aimed at improving the capacity of the model and adjusting it to the reality of the electricity market finally conclusions are provided from the works analyzed in terms of renewable technologies and the policy implications derived from them in most studies a preference has been shown for the inclusion of renewable technologies in the efficient portfolios however in order to implement the decision to increase the share of renewable technologies greater flexibility in the interconnection capacity between states and in storage capacity is needed

diversification criteria for power systems abstract growing power demand fuel availability and prices technology changes the environmental impacts of energy consumption the changing regulatory environments and the uncertainties around such elements make the planning for optimal power mix a challenging task the diversity approach is advocated as a most appropriate planning methodology for the optimal energy mix hickey et al 2010 shannon wiener index swi which is the most cited diversity metric has been used to assess power systems diversity mainly from an energy perspective to our best knowledge there is no rigorous justification why energy has been the main variable used in diversification exercises rather than other variables such as capacity we use a stylized power generation framework to show that diversity based on energy or capacity could lead to different outcomes in terms of vulnerability to fuel exposure among others we also introduce a shannon wiener index ratio swir that we believe captures better the diversity of a power system compared to the standard swi

analyzing the relationships between information technology inputs substitution and national characteristics based on ces stochastic frontier production models abstract this research examines four interrelated issues at the country level the value of information technology it inputs substitution and complement the complementarity phenomenon created by it and national characteristics and the productivity paradox jointly and critically from a global perspective using the so called productive efficiency as the performance measure to that end we develop the three factor constant elasticity of substitution ces stochastic production frontier model and apply it to a set of panel data from 15 countries over the period 1993 2003 along with the traditional two factor ces models within the one and two equation frameworks in the two equation setting six national characteristics are selected as the contributing factors of the productive efficiency the findings include i the value of it as measured by the productive efficiency is duly recognized ii the productivity paradox is found to be absent from the production process in a majority of developed and developing countries considered rejecting the existing argument that the paradox exists only in developing economies but does not exist in developed countries however the developed countries have used it capital in their production systems more productively efficiently than the developing nations iii traditional capital non it capital traditional labor and it capital are not pairwise substitutable contrary to the notion that they are pairwise substitutable at the firm level iv constant returns to scale as commonly assumed are not supported by the data v different national characteristics affect a country s output represented by gross domestic product or gdp and its productive efficiency differently and vi the complementarity phenomenon is observed in most of the countries developed and developing under study

conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market abstract we investigate the existence of a risk premium in the foreign exchange market based on the conditional variance of market forecast errors the forecast errors are assumed to follow the arch process introduced by engle 1982 estimation and diagnostic testing of the model are discussed and results are presented for the currencies of the united kingdom france germany japan and switzerland