settlement tax and non synchronous effects in the basis of u k stock index futures abstract the basis in stock index futures markets is analytically and empirically studied in this paper within a no arbitrage cost of carry framework explanatory power improved when the implications of the u k stock exchange settlement system were introduced into the modelling process and until recently with the maturity of the market evidence indicating the presence of non synchronicities between the cash and futures markets was found strong evidence for tax effects upon the basis was not found to be present in the data analysed statistically significant relationships between basis mispricing and volume and volatility were found

market segmentation and willingness to pay for green electricity among urban residents in china the case of jiangsu province the objective of this study is to identify market segments and estimate the residents willingness to pay wtp for green electricity green e in china for the large scale promotion of energy projects from renewable sources that do not rely solely on energy policies based on an analysis of non use values of green e as well as the application of the contingent valuation cv method and payment card pc introduction technology the average wtp ranges from rmb 7 91 yuan month to 10 30 yuan month approximately us 1 15 1 51 month with an exchange rate of 6 83 yuan us yuan us for urban residents in jiangsu province the current work also explores the differences in demographic variables across varying wtp amounts and the different marginal effects of demographic variables at the same level of wtp the findings reveal that there are significant differences in demographic variables such as level of education household income and location of residence across the population segments moreover the finding that some respondents with high income and higher education prefer higher wtp amounts to lower wtp amounts suggests that green e is a luxury product and consequently a veblen effect exists in certain chinese market segments

the distribution of daily stock returns and settlement procedures the paris bourse in many countries settlements take place a fixed number of business days after the transaction u s japan in other countries settlements take place periodically on a fixed date when all transactions performed before this date are settled u k france italy in both cases settlement procedures should cause returns not to be identically distributed over all days the effect is likely to be the largest on markets where all trades are settled only once a month an empirical investigation of the largest of those markets the paris bourse demonstrates the importance of the settlement procedure on the distribution of daily returns settlement procedures vary considerably across national stock markets in many countries settlements take place a fixed number of business days after the transaction these countries are referred to in this paper as countries with a fixed settlement lag in other countries settlements take place periodically on a fixed date and all transactions performed before this date are settled then these countries are referred to as countries with a fixed settlement date in both cases settlement procedures should cause returns not to be identically distributed over all days

day of the week effects and asset returns the number of empirical studies using daily stock returns is rapidly increasing researchers generally assume that the distribution of stock returns is identical for all days of the week a convenient statistical assumption but not a necessary condition of market equilibrium nevertheless there are reasons to suspect that the distribution of returns may vary according to the day of the week the most obvious is the impact of weekends on monday s return since monday s return is calculated over three instead of one calender day the mean and variance may well be higher on monday compared with any other daily return perhaps three times as large previous research has examined the daily distribution of stock returns for a monday effect while fama 1965 does not compare daily mean returns he does report that monday s variance is about 20o greater than other daily returns with a traditional distributional assumption regarding the returns on a financial asset specifies that the expected returns are identical for all days of the week contrary to this plausible assumption this paper discovers that the expected returns on common stocks and treasury bills are not constant across days of the week the most notable evidence is for monday s returns where the mean is unusually low or even negative several explanations of the results are investigated but none proves satisfactory aside from documenting significant day of the week effects the implications of the results for tests of market efficiency are examined while market adjusted returns continue to exhibit day of the week effects these effects are no longer concentrated on monday during the last year we have had many conversations with our colleagues throughout the professions we are particularly thankful to the participants at sessions of the western and american finance associations where preliminary versions of this paper were presented special thanks are due to gene fama gailen hite jon ingersoll robert jarrow merton miller clifford smith and rex thompson the expert research assistance of frank rabinovitch and youngsup yun is gratefully acknowledged 1 the list of papers using daily stock returns is too long to name recent examples include charest 1978 dodd 1980 banz 1981 and reinganum 1981

assessment of public acceptance and willingness to pay for renewable energy sources in crete abstract the aim of this study is to analyse and to evaluate the citizens public acceptance and willingness to pay wtp for renewable energy sources res in crete for this purpose a contingent valuation study was conducted using a double bound dichotomous choice format to elicit people s wtp and factors affecting it residents of 1440 households all over crete were interviewed face to face major conclusions can be used as a basis for sustainable energy planning for policies and the formulation of awareness campaigns and for res investment programs and projects in order to prepare implementation conditions and enhance public acceptance of renewable energy investments and programmes mean wtp per household was found to be 16 33 to be paid quarterly as an additional charge on the electricity bill larger willingness to pay was reported by those with high family income and residence size those having a higher level of energy information and awareness concerning climatic change those who have invested in some energy saving measures and those who suffer from more electricity shortages than others

optimal allocation of energy sources for sustainable development in south korea focus on the electric power generation industry abstract national energy planning has become increasingly complex owing to a pressing need to incorporate sustainability considerations in this context we applied least cost and cost risk optimization models to allocate energy sources for sustainable development in the korean electric power generation industry the least cost model determined an electricity generation mix from 2012 to 2030 that incurs minimum generation cost to meet electricity demand the cost risk model determined electricity generation mixes in 2030 considering the risks associated with each energy source in order to lessen external risks in deriving these optimal electricity generation mixes we considered both conventional and renewable energy sources in conjunction with physical and policy constraints that realistically reflect korean circumstances moreover we accounted for co 2 and external costs within the electricity generation costs for each energy source for sustainable development in korea we conclude that a portion of the coal and gas in the electricity generation mix must be substituted with nuclear and renewable energy furthermore we found that least cost allocation is sub optimal from cost risk perspective and that it limits the adoption of renewables finally we also discuss the implications of decisions taken by the korean government regarding the electricity generation mix for next generation energy planning to achieve sustainability

estimating the impact of the hajj religion and tolerance in islam s global gathering we estimate the impact on pilgrims of performing the hajj pilgrimage to mecca our method compares successful and unsuccessful applicants in a lottery used by pakistan to allocate hajj visas pilgrim accounts stress that the hajj leads to a feeling of unity with fellow muslims but outsiders have sometimes feared that this could be accompanied by antipathy toward non muslims we find that participation in the hajj increases observance of global islamic practices such as prayer and fasting while decreasing participation in localized practices and beliefs such as the use of amulets and dowry it increases belief in equality and harmony among ethnic groups and islamic sects and leads to more favorable attitudes toward women including greater acceptance of female education and employment increased unity within the islamic world is not accompanied by antipathy toward non muslims instead hajjis show increased belief in peace and in equality and harmony among adherents of different religions the evidence suggests that these changes are likely due to exposure to and interaction with hajjis from around the world rather than to a changed social role of pilgrims upon return

residential consumers in the cape peninsula s willingness to pay for premium priced green electricity a number of studies have explored the willingness i e stated willingness as opposed to actual willingness of consumers to pay a premium for green electricity in developed countries however little is known about how this translates into an emerging economy context this study investigates the level of willingness of residential households in south africa s cape peninsula to pay a premium for electricity from renewable energy it methodologically drew on recent contributions in the literature on norm motivated behaviour used to identify testable factors that could influence residential consumers willingness to pay wtp interestingly the study found a significant positive link between household income and wtp for green electricity contrary to the findings of some previous studies not only are higher income households more likely to pay a premium but typically they are also willing to pay a bigger premium it was also further established that the view that green electricity is reliable involvement in the recycling of waste and the belief that everyone should contribute to green electricity generation drive the wtp

estimating willingness to pay for renewable energy in south korea using the contingent valuation method the importance of renewable energy as a response to climate change is universally acknowledged however its successful implementation requires public approval and cooperation this study aims to identify the level of renewable energy acceptance in korea by estimating korean consumers additional willingness to pay wtp using the contingent valuation cv method which is the most widely used to analyze consumer preferences the estimation results indicate that korean consumers are willing to pay an additional usd 3 21 per month for electricity generated with renewable energy however wtp in korea is low relative to other advanced nations indicating that these values could be influenced through policies aimed at improving knowledge and acceptance of renewable energy sources among korean consumers

capture and governance at local and national levels 135 despite the importance of this issue not much systematic research appears to have been devoted to assessing the relative susceptibility of national and local governments to interestgroup capture here we describe a model of two party electoral competition with probabilistic voting behavior and lobbying by specialinterest groups based on david baron 1994 and gene grossman and elhanan helpman 1996 that helps identify determinants of relative capture at different levels of government these include relative levels of voter awareness and interest group cohesiveness electoral uncertainty electoral competition heterogeneity of districts with respect to inequality and the electoral system while some of these uphold the traditional madisonian presumption others are likely to create a tendency for lower capture at the local level so the net effect is theoretically ambiguous this suggests that the extent of relative capture may be context specific and needs to be assessed empirically

decentralisation and accountability in infrastructure delivery in developing countries many developing countries are experimenting with decentralisation of public service delivery to elected local governments instead of bureaucrats appointed by a central government we study the resulting implications in a theoretical model in which the central government is uninformed about local need and unable to monitor service allocations bureaucrats charge bribes for services as monopoly providers resulting in underprovision of services especially for the poor local governments are directly responsive to their citizens needs but may be subject to capture by elites effects of decentralisation on service volumes efficiency and equity are analysed under different financing arrangements for local governments the theme of the 2004 world development report is summarised by its opening paragraph too often services fail poor people in access in quantity in quality but the fact that there are strong examples where services do work means governments and citizens can do better how by putting poor people at the center of service provision by enabling them to monitor and discipline service providers by amplifying their voice in policymaking and by strengthening the incentives for providers to serve the poor problems of accountability associated with traditional modes of delivery involving centralised bureaucracies include cost padding service diversion limited responsiveness to local needs limited access and high prices charged especially to the poor 1 many developing countries have thus begun to experiment with initiatives to increase accountability of service providers by providing greater control rights to citizen groups these include decentralisation of service delivery to local governments community participation direct transfers to households and contracting out delivery to private providers and ngos the programmes include a wide range of infrastructure services water sanitation electricity telecommunications roads and social services education health and welfare programmes countries where such trends have gathered

coal nuclear and renewable energy policies in germany from the 1950s to the energiewende over the last 50 years german energy policy has ranged from strong enthusiasm for both coal and nuclear energy to deep skepticism the most dramatic changes with respect to energy policies have occurred as a response to nuclear accidents yet the accidental and unintended effects of coal policies are also important in influencing the trajectory the newly emerging climate debate prevented the coal industry from acting as a substitute for the diminishing share of nuclear power in 2011 the conservative government announced the energiewende energy transformation and decided to reduce the amount of fossil fuels from 80 of the energy supply to 20 by 2050 however while the verdict on nuclear was unequivocal with a final phase out date of 2022 the share of coal in the electricity market did not decrease and the amount of carbon dioxide released into the air slightly increased from 2011 to 2013 there are growing conflicts over the immediate costs and practicalities of coal replacement consequently the future of coal in germany is still relatively open and contested

a portfolio risk analysis on electricity supply planning abstract conventional electricity planning selects from a range of alternative technologies based on the least cost method without assessing cost related risks the current approach to determining energy generation portfolios creates a preference for fossil fuel consequently this preference results in increased exposure to recent fluctuations in fossil fuel prices particularly for countries heavily depend on imported energy this paper applies portfolio theory in conventional electricity planning with taiwan as a case study the model objective is to minimize the risk weighted present value of total generation cost both the present value of generating cost and risk variance of the generating cost are considered risk of generating cost is introduced for volatile fuel prices and uncertainty of technological change and capital cost reduction the impact of risk levels on the portfolio of power generation technologies is also examined to provide some valuable policy suggestions study results indicate that replacing fossil fuel with renewable energy helps reduce generating cost risk however due to limited renewable development potential in taiwan there is an upper bound of 15 on the maximum share of renewable energy in the generating portfolio in the meantime reevaluating the current nuclear energy policy for reduced exposure to fossil fuel price fluctuations is worthwhile

analyzing korean consumers latent preferences for electricity generation sources with a hierarchical bayesian logit model in a discrete choice experiment generally consumers use electricity without considering the source the electricity was generated from since different energy sources exert varying effects on society it is necessary to analyze consumers latent preference for electricity generation sources the present study estimates korean consumers marginal utility and an appropriate generation mix is derived using the hierarchical bayesian logit model in a discrete choice experiment the results show that consumers consider the danger posed by the source of electricity as the most important factor among the effects of electricity generation sources additionally korean consumers wish to reduce the contribution of nuclear power from the existing 32 11 and increase that of renewable energy from the existing 4 32

plurality and runoff systems and numbers of candidates although political scientists have in the last few decades learned much about the abstract properties of multicandidate electoral systems we have accumulated little theoretical knowledge on the ways in which strategic behavior of voters and candidates changes when we move from one voting system to another this essay has illustrated how the relative desirability of voting systems can change when the number of candidates usually considered fixed in such comparisons is taken as endogenous to the voting system in force at the time our main conclusion is therefore that the method of voting must be understood in relation to the total electoral system it is not enough to analyze properties of voting systems in the abstract but also in terms of the interactions that voting systems have with political groups and the constitutional setting

incentives to cultivate favored minorities under alternative electoral systems a simple model is used to compare under different electoral systems the incentives for candidates to create inequalities among otherwise homogeneous voters by making campaign promises that favor small groups rather than appealing equally to all voters in this game model each candidate generates offers for voters independently out of a distribution that is chosen by the candidate subject only to the constraints that offers must be nonnegative and have mean 1 symmetric equilibria with sincere voting are analyzed for two candidate elections and for multicandidate elections under rank scoring rules approval voting and single transferable vote voting rules that can guarantee representation for minorities in multiseat elections generate in this model the most severely unequal campaign promises

promoting democracy in fragile states field experimental evidence from liberia summary we use a cluster randomized field experiment to study two strategies to promote free democratic expression among rural voters in liberia s 2011 general election the context is one of a fragile state in which destructive legacies of liberia s 1989 2003 civil war continue to dominate people s lives a nine month civic education intervention administered by liberian civil society organization partners provided training on election procedures and a forum for monthly discussion of governance issues a nine month security committee intervention administered in partnership with the united nations peacekeeping mission in liberia provided a forum for villagers and international peacekeepers to discuss security threats and develop violence early warning and reaction procedures with the aim of improving citizens perceptions of security during the election we evaluate these programs effects on actual voter behavior in addition to surveyed attitudes we find that civic education increased enthusiasm for electoral participation produced a coordinated shift from parochial to national candidates and increased willingness to report on manipulation a program combining the two interventions had similar effects the security committees produced a modest reduction in parochial voting the policy implications are that third party actors can play a productive role in helping to overcome barriers to information voter coordination and security

valuation of environmental and societal trade offs of renewable energy sources abstract use of renewable energy sources is one solution to decrease green house gas emissions and the use of polluting fossil fuels renewables differ in their environmental and societal impacts and to design sound renewable energy policy societies need to assess the trade offs between alternative sources to enable the evaluation and comparison of renewable energy production alternatives in finland this paper applies the choice experiment to elicit the monetary information on people s preferences for four renewable energy sources wind power hydro power and energy from crops and wood and considers four impacts of energy production effects on biodiversity local jobs carbon emissions and household s electricity bill the nested logit analysis reveals that higher income male gender young age and pro environmental attitude increase the probability to choose renewable energy instead of the current energy mix wind power is on average the most popular renewable energy technology but regional differences exist biodiversity deterioration should be avoided the national aggregate willingness to pay based on stated preferences rather than preferences revealed by actual market behavior for a combination of renewable energy technologies that corresponds to finland s climate change and energy policy is over 500 million euros

balanced budget redistribution as the outcome of political competition this paper models balanced budget redistribution between socio economic groups as the outcome of electoral competition between two political parties equilibrium is unique in the present model and a sufficient condition for existence is given requiring that there be enough stochastic heterogeneity with respect to party preferences in the electorate the validity of hotelling s principle of minimum differentiation and of director s law are examined under alternative hypotheses concerning administrative costs of redistributions and voter s possibilities both of abstaining from voting and of becoming campaign activists for one of the parties the policy strategy of expected plurality maximization is contrasted with the strategy of maximizing the probability of gaining a plurality incomes are fixed and known so lump sum taxation is feasible however constraints on tax transfer differentiation between individuals are permitted in the analysis

ethnic diversity social sanctions and public goods in kenya abstract this paper examines ethnic diversity and local public goods in rural western kenya the identification strategy relies on the stable historically determined patterns of ethnic land settlement ethnic diversity is associated with lower primary school funding and worse school facilities and there is suggestive evidence that it leads to poor water well maintenance the theoretical model illustrates how inability to impose social sanctions in diverse communities leads to collective action failures and we find that school committees in diverse areas do impose fewer sanctions on defaulting parents we relate these results to the literature on social capital and economic development and discuss implications for decentralization in less developed countries

collective action in diverse sierra leone communities scholars have identified ethnic divisions as a leading cause of underdevelopment due partially to their adverse effects on public goods we investigate this issue in post war sierra leone one of the world s poorest and most ethnically diverse countries to address concerns over endogenous local ethnic composition we use an instrumental variables strategy using earlier census data on ethnicity and include several historical and geographic covariates perhaps surprisingly we find that local diversity is not associated with worse public goods provision across multiple outcomes and specifications with precisely estimated zeros we investigate the role of historical factors in generating the findings

votes and violence evidence from a field experiment in nigeria following the wave of democratization during the 1990s elections are now common in low income societies however these elections are frequently flawed we investigate the nigerian general election of 2007 which is to date the largest election held in africa and one seriously marred by violence we designed and conducted a nationwide field experiment based on randomized anti violence grassroots campaigning we find direct effects on violence outcomes from exploring both subject surveying and independent data sources crucially we establish that voter intimidation is effective in reducing voter turnout and that the violence was systematically dissociated from incumbents we suggest that incumbents have a comparative advantage in alternative strategies vote buying and ballot fraud voter intimidation may be a strategy of the weak analogous to terrorism

the control of politicians in divided societies the politics of fear autocrats in many developing countries have extracted enormous personal rents from power in addition they have imposed inefficient policies including pervasive patronage spending i present a model in which the presence of ethnic identities and the absence of institutionalized succession processes allow the ruler to elicit support from a sizeable share of the population despite large reductions in welfare the fear of falling under an equally inefficient and venal ruler that favours another group is enough to discipline supporters the model predicts extensive use of patronage ethnic bias in taxation and spending patterns and unveils a new mechanism through which economic frictions translate into increased rent extraction by the leader these predictions are consistent with the experiences of bad governance ethnic bias wasteful policies and kleptocracy in post colonial africa

day of the week effect on the paris bourse abstract we present evidence on the day of the week effect on a stock market with a particular settlement procedure the paris bourse a strong and persistent negative return is found on tuesdays a similar result was previously found for japan and australia the settlement procedure is shown to have an effect on the distribution of daily returns consistent with forward pricing theory it cannot explain the negative tuesday return after adjusting for this settlement effect the mean return on mondays is the largest in the week a result at odds with the evidence in the u s a

radio s impact on public spending if informed voters receive favorable policies then the invention of a new mass medium may affect government policies since it affects who is informed and who is not these ideas are developed in a voting model the model forms the basis for an empirical investigation of a major new deal relief program implemented in the middle of the expansion period of radio the main empirical finding is that u s counties with many radio listeners received more relief funds more funds were allocated to poor counties with high unemployment but controlling for these and other variables the effects of radio are large and highly significant

can renewable energy be financed with higher electricity prices evidence from a spanish region abstract in this paper we estimate the willingness to pay for mix of renewable sources of electric power by means of a discrete choice experiment survey conducted in spain in 2010 two main categories of power supply attributes are explored source of renewable power wind solar and biomass and the origin of such power the findings suggest that most consumers are not willing to pay a premium for increases in the shares of renewable in their electricity mix for two of the three renewable sources considered wind and biomass an increase of the renewable mix would require a discount instead we record positive willing to pay for increases in the share of both solar power and locally generated power however preferences for types of renewable solar and wind are found to be heterogeneous by classifying respondents in two groups according to the implied importance of the share of renewable sources in their power mix we identify a market segment consisting of 20 of respondents that could promote renewable energy in the absence of subsidies this is because such a segment shows willingness to pay higher than the current feed in tariffs

how the electoral college influences campaigns and policy the probability of being florida this paper analyzes how us presidential candidates should allocate resources across states to maximize the probability of winning the election by developing and estimating a probabilistic voting model of political competition under the electoral college system actual campaigns act in close agreement with the model there is a 0 9 correlation between equilibrium and actual presidential campaign visits across states both in 2000 and 2004 the paper shows how presidential candidate attention is affected by the states number of electoral votes forecasted state election outcomes and forecast uncertainty it also analyzes the effects of a direct national popular vote for president

intraweek and intraday seasonalities in stock market risk premia cash and futures abstract the unique nature of the settlement procedures on the london stock exchange are utilised to directly investigate intraweek and intraday seasonalities in ex post risk premia rather than total returns and compare them with the corresponding intraweek and intraday seasonalities in the index futures market seasonalities in the occurrence of extreme price changes are also examined the results reported are based on about 4 years of hourly cash and futures data the analysis is conducted using both parametric and non parametric methods the observed empirical regularities have implications for explanations of seasonality based on market microstructure timing of news and psychological behavioural patterns it is also found that the stock market has not efficiently accounted for the interest costs inherent in its own settlement procedures

new findings regarding day of the week returns over trading and non trading periods a note this paper decomposes daily close to close returns into trading day and non trading day returns we discover that all of the average negative returns from friday close to monday close documented in the literature for stock market indexes occurs during the non trading period from friday close to monday open in addition average trading day returns open to close are identical for all days of the week january firm size turn of the year anomalies are shown to be interrelated with day of the week returns

seasonality estimation in thin markets the greater availability of daily data in the u s has led to a number of studies of the seasonality of daily stock index returns while the studies recognized the potential impacts of nontrading and price adjustment delays in general no formal analyses of such impacts were presented in this paper analytic results are presented for the articulation between these phenomena the implications of the analysis are discussed and shown to be consistent with a sample of u k index data a modified form of the negative weekend effect is found to be present in the u k data analyzed tests for the presence of seasonality in equity returns have been carried out by a number of authors at both the monthly and daily return levels at the monthly level rozeff and kinney 18 discovered evidence of seasonality in the u s while officer 15 detected the presence of seasonality in australian data fama 7 carried out some early work on u s daily data and more recent contributions have been made by cross 5 french 9 and gibbons and hess 10 while these studies recognized the presence of thin trading and its potential impacts upon the experimental results no formal analyses were presented in this paper we derive analytic results for the articulation between seasonality and nontrading effects section i the implications of this analysis are tested using a sample described in section ii of u k daily index data2 in section iii section iv discusses the implications of the results for capital market efficiency finally

the political economy of government responsiveness theory and evidence from india the determinants of government responsiveness to its citizens is a key issue in political economy here we develop a model based on the solution of political agency problems having a more informed an politically active electorate strengthens incentives for governments to be responsive this suggests that there is a role both for democratic institutions and the mass media in ensuring that the preferences of citizens are reflected in policy the ideas behind the model are tested on panel data from india we show that public food distribution and calamity relief expenditure are greater controlling for shocks where governments face greater electoral accountability and where newspaper circulation is highest

what do customers want from improved residential electricity services evidence from a choice experiment abstract improvements in customer satisfaction as well as product service quality represent a common objective of all businesses and electricity services are no exception using choice experiments and a mixed logit model this study quantitatively analyzes customers preferences and their marginal willingness to pay for improved residential electricity services the study provides an ex ante evaluation of customers acceptance of hypothetical electricity services according to the results customers consider the electricity bill and the electricity mix as the two most important attributes when choosing their electricity services customers are willing to pay 2 2 more in the average electricity bill an additional monthly electricity bill of krw 1 064 usd 0 96 for a significant increase in the share of renewable energy which is far less than the actual cost of achieving this renewable target therefore it is better to maintain the current electricity mix in principle and the renewable share should be gradually expanded instead of making a sudden change in the electricity mix in addition customers are willing to pay krw 6 793 usd 6 15 more to reduce blackouts once in a year and krw 64 year usd 0 06 year to reduce a minute of each blackout

reshaping institutions evidence on aid impacts using a pre analysis plan this brief summarizes the results of a gender impact evaluation study entitled reshaping institutions evidence on aid impacts using a pre analysis plan conducted between 2005 and 2009 in sierra leone the study observed the impact of pre analysis plan pap on local institutions by imposing participation requirements for marginalized groups including women and test for learning by doing effects in sierra leone on the individual and village level requiring women and young adults to take on leadership positions participate in project meetings and sign off on project finances does not have any persistent effect on their participation in local decision making or attitudes regarding leadership ability the project successfully established village organizations and tools to manage the project the distributions of the project s benefits were equitable and leakage was minimal there was a significant positive impact on the stock and quality of local public infrastructure however there are no detectible changes in the ability to raise funds for local public goods decision making process or social norms and attitudes funding for the study derived from the gobifo project the institutional reform and capacity building project ircbp the world bank development impact evaluation dime the horace w goldsmith foundation the international growth center 3ie and the national bureau of economic research nber african successes project

ideology tactics and efficiency in redistributive politics we model the electoral politics of redistribution when voters and parties care about inequality in addition to their private concerns for consumption and votes respectively ideological concerns about income redistribution lead each party to adopt a general proportional income tax adjusted to appeal to the ideological leanings of high clout groups with disproportionately many swing voters which the parties also ply with pork barrel projects our results relate to director s law which says that redistributive politics favors middle classes at the expense of both rich and poor

turn of month and pre holiday effects on stock returns some international evidence abstract this study examines turn of month and pre holiday effects on international markets turn of month effects are significant in canada the uk australia switzerland and west germany pre holiday effects are significant in canada japan hong kong and australia the absence of these effects in certain markets suggests that they originate from country specific institutional practices all countries exhibiting pre holiday effects do so before local holidays only hong kong does so before us holidays this reinforces the conclusion that such anomalies are not generated solely by american institutions

the art of the possible power sharing and post civil war democracy this article focuses on the role that power sharing arrangements play in making it possible for some countries to make the transition to democracy successfully after civil war the authors hypothesize that the adoption of multiple forms of power sharing measures constructed to end particularly difficult civil wars facilitate the emergence of a minimalist form of democracy following some intrastate conflicts by helping to assuage warring groups security concerns the authors use a bivariate probit model to account for the possibility that the decisions by wartime rivals to engage in power sharing and whether to adopt democracy or not are interrelated employing panel data for all civils wars concluded between 1945 and the end of 2006 they find support for their hypothesis

rolling settlement and market liquidity this paper investigates the impact on uk stock and option markets of the change from an account based settlement system to a rolling settlement procedure such a change increases the transaction costs of short term margin traders and is likely to impact on the liquidity of the underlying market as well as trading in the options market evidence is presented that the settlement procedure does impact on the liquidity of the market further we find that rolling settlement increased market liquidity consistent with the exit of margin traders as a result of the increase in short selling costs associated with this increase in liquidity is a significant reduction in nonoptionable stock trading volume implying that margin trading may have been more prevalent in stocks without options finally it is shown that while trading in stock options increased the volatilities implied from call and put option prices indicate that put options have become relatively more expensive this reflects the change in demand i

crossing party lines the eects of information on redistributive politics this paper explores how the quality of information available to voters in uences the choices they make in the polling booth and in turn aects the strategies of political parties competing for their support to do so the paper builds a model of redistributive politics under asymmetric information and then tests the resulting propositions with data from recent elections in sierra leone using the lindbeck and weibull 1987 model as a foundation i incorporate a new determinant of voting choice candidate quality which is only imperfectly observed by voters i show that voters with better information about candidates are more likely to cross ethnic party lines to support a high quality candidate furthermore since information encourages voters to consider characteristics like candidate charisma that are di cult for parties to observe it makes party forecasting of expected vote shares more uncertain such electoral uncertainty in turn induces parties to spread their resources more evenly across jurisdictions two institutional attributes of the empirical setting ethnicity based politics and decentralization enable direct tests of these informational propositions as well as a novel identi cation strategy for the classic swing voter hypothesis my results suggest that information could break the low accountability equilibrium in which citizens cast their votes blindly along partisan lines creating little incentive for political parties to invest in candidate quality or provide resources to areas outside the most tightly contested jurisdictions

power sector investment risk and renewable energy a japanese case study using portfolio risk optimization method the conventional pricing mechanism used for electricity systematically hides huge investment risks which are embedded in the overall cost of production although consumers are often unaware of these risks they present a large financial burden on the economy this study applies the portfolio optimization concepts from the field of finance to demonstrate the scope of greater utilization of renewable energies re while reducing the embedded investment risk in the conventional electricity sector and its related financial burden this study demonstrates that re investment can compensate for the risks associated with the total input costs such costs being external volatilities of fossil fuel prices capital costs operating and maintenance costs and the carbon costs by means of example this case study shows that japan could in theory obtain up to 9 of its electricity supply from green sources as compared to the present 1 37 based on the utilization of a portfolio risk analysis evaluation explicit comparison of the monetary values of the investment risks of conventional and renewable energy sources shows that renewable energies have high market competitiveness the study concludes with a recommendation that as a business objective investors would benefit by focusing on electricity supply portfolio risk minimization instead of cost this could also inherently increase the supply of renewable energy in the market

valuing energy policy attributes for environmental management choice experiment evidence from a research institution abstract many governments firms institutions and individuals have become increasingly cognizant of their impact on the environment most notably with respect to global climate change coupled with the possibility of future regulations aimed at curbing greenhouse gas emissions firms and institutions have begun to critically evaluate their own carbon footprint this paper examines the preferences of stakeholders within a large academic institution for attributes of alternative greenhouse gas ghg reduction strategies the attributes considered by constituents include the fuel portfolio mix effort for conserving energy use carbon emissions reduction timeframe for emissions reduction to be achieved and cost we use a choice experiment technique that enables the examination of greenhouse gas reduction program attribute preferences across three constituent groups the results show that each of the constituent groups have a positive wtp for carbon emissions reductions and prefer investments in reductions in the shorter rather than longer term the results also suggest differences between the constituent groups in their wtp for types of fuels in the fuel portfolio finally we use the results to examine the welfare implications of different combinations of the policy attributes that coincide with alternative ghg program strategies

identifying the factors affecting the willingness to pay for fuel efficient vehicles in turkey a case of hybrids this paper aims to determine the factors that have an impact on the consumers willingness to pay a premium for hybrid automobiles in turkey a web based random survey was conducted in different regions of turkey a questionnaire was administered to 1983 participants in january march of 2009 the questionnaire was prepared by taking the issues raised in various sources into account an ordered probit model was used to meet the objective results show that variables such as income gender education concerns about global warming number of automobiles importance of automobile performance risk preference attitude toward the alternative energy sources have an impact on the consumers willingness to pay a premium for hybrids findings suggest that consumers who have high income higher educational level and concerns about the global warming are more likely to pay a premium for hybrids this study is expected to make important contributions to the current literature related to the consumers willingness to pay for hybrids by providing a research study from a developing country s perspective results of this study also make important contributions to the policy and decision makers environmental groups and automotive industry

the week end effect in common stock returns the international evidence this paper examines the daily stock market returns for four foreign countries we find a so called week end effect in each country in addition the lowest mean returns for the japanese and australian stock markets occur on tuesday the remainder of the paper answers four questions are seasonal patterns in foreign stock markets independent of those previously reported in the u s do japan and australia exhibit a seasonal one day out of phase due to different time zones do settlement procedures across countries bias week end effects does the seasonal pattern in foreign exchange offset the week end effect in stocks for americans investing overseas some of the most anomalous empirical findings in finance are associated with the sample distributions of daily common stock returns cross 1 french 2 gibbons and hess 3 and keim and stambaugh 4 have documented that the average return on friday is abnormally high and the average return on monday is abnormally low to our knowledge this so called day of the week effect or week end effect has yet to be explained because this anomaly has been reported primarily for u s stock returns it is appropriate to investigate whether similar results occur for other countries positive findings would strongly support the proposition that the weekly seasonal effect is a general world wide phenomenon rather than the result of a special type of institutional arrangement in the u s to shed more light on this proposition our paper examines stock market returns in the u k japan canada and australia since we find a week end effect in each country we can examine a set of interesting questions for example are these seasonals independent of the previously reported seasonal in the u s due to different time zones do far eastern countries exhibit a seasonal one day out of phase do different settlement procedures across countries influence weekend effects does the seasonal in foreign exchange fluctuations see mcfarland pettit and sung 7 and levi 6 offset the week end effect in stock market returns for americans investing overseas

electoral competition under the threat of political unrest this paper examines how voting and the outcomesof majority rule elections are affected by factors beyond the control of the winning party we present a model that helps to predict how threats against the electoral process ineuence 1 platform choice by political parties 2 which party wins the election and 3 the policy outcomes enally implemented in a democracy where the majority winner sets policy dissatiseed groups including groups outside the electoral process may still be able to interfere with that policy a losing party may organize a coup voters may riot unions may go on strike investors may take their capital abroad terrorists and foreign powers may threaten disruption and loss of life foreign powers may withdraw aid or even impose a trade embargo we analyze the effect of these nonelectoral factors on electoral outcomes we consider a majority rule electoral competition between two political parties with ideal policies lying to either side of the median voter s ideal policy we allow for only a one dimensional policy space but the disruption possibility leads to a twodimensional outcome space as evident in the examples given above the actors threaten

eliciting public preference for nuclear energy against the backdrop of global warming one of the most important issues related to sustainability is to reduce the use of fossil fuels due to the reduction in greenhouse gases ghg emission nuclear power results in low carbon emissions and is thus important to mitigating the adverse effects of global warming and climate change however the downside of nuclear power cannot be overlooked and consequently nuclear power is a controversial issue in many countries around the world thus an important question concerns how people should support nuclear power do the climate and energy security benefits of nuclear power outweigh its risks and costs therefore we use a modified double bounded contingent valuation model to explore the attitudes and the willingness to pay wtp of a country in order to demonstrate its implications for policy we confirm that supporters and opponents of nuclear power are balanced both in terms of their numbers and in terms of their wtp the policy implication is that people do not support any dramatic increase or reduction in nuclear power and that nuclear power should still be an important means of generating electricity in taiwan the current share of nuclear power in electricity generation of 20 should be maintained in the near future

weekend effects on stock returns a note some researchers have apparently been surprised to discover that the distribution of stock returns depends on the day of the week kenneth french 3 for example in testing whether daily stock returns are generated by a trading time or calendar time hypothesis provided convincing evidence of a negative market return on mondays as french carefully notes this finding runs counter to both hypotheses since a trading time view would have expected stock returns equal on different days and a calendar time view would have higher expected returns on monday to compensate for the longer holding period in this paper we offer a partial explanation for the apparently puzzling discovery of different daily returns we argue that the expected stock returns as measured for example from closing to closing prices should depend on the day of the week in general we argue that the expected returns on mondays should be lower than would be implied simply by a trading time or calendar time model and the returns on fridays should be higher in addition we anticipate that holidays will have complex effects on stock returns on other days of the week our argument is based on the delay between trading and settlements in stocks and in clearing checks the explanation that we offer for different measured daily returns does not contradict the efficient market hypothesis as correctly adjusted expected returns should not differ according to the day of the week

household willingness to pay for green electricity in slovenia abstract this paper analyses the willingness to pay for electricity generated from renewable energy sources in slovenia the results confirm that age household income education and environmental awareness play the most important role in explaining household attitudes to green electricity programmes while the willingness to participate in green electricity programmes is influenced by education and environmental awareness the willingness to pay for green electricity predominantly depends on household income the results imply that green marketing should be accompanied by awareness raising campaigns and should target younger well educated and high income households the expressed median willingness to pay is found to exceed the current level of mandatory charges for green electricity nevertheless recent increases in final electricity prices might have already exhausted the capacity for additional voluntary contributions