a market to implement the core abstract i present a mechanism whose subgame perfect equilibrium outcomes coincide with the core of an underlying convex tu game the mechanism resembles an asset market in which one of the players is randomly selected as a broker who centralizes trade in addition the rules of the mechanism are independent of the coalitional function therefore the mechanism is useful for an incompletely informed designer who wishes to implement the core of these games the mechanism is inspired by the reduced games relevant for the consistency of the core journal of economic literature classification numbers c71 and c72

the asymmetric linkage between energy use and economic growth in selected african countries evidence from a nonlinear panel autoregressive distributed lag model abstract this paper endeavors to shed light on the asymmetric heterogeneous relationship between energy use and economic growth in nineteen selected african countries from 1971 to 2014 we employ to this end a nonlinear panel autoregressive distributed lag model and an asymmetric panel causality test the empirical results suggest that the relationship between energy use and economic growth is asymmetric and depends on the phases of economic cycle firstly in periods of economic expansion positive shocks on energy use have a positive and significant effect on economic growth in the long run but have a weak positive effect in the short run negative shocks on energy use have a negative and significant effect on economic growth in the long run but a positive and significant effect in the short run moreover in periods of economic expansion economic growth tends to react more to a decrease in energy use than to an increase in energy use secondly in period of economic contraction positive shocks on energy use accentuate the negative variation of economic growth in the long run while in the short run economic contraction is resorb by negative shocks on energy use thirdly net energy importing economies located in north africa east africa central africa and southern africa are the most subject to energy asymmetric shocks for net energy exporting countries the asymmetric relationship between energy use and economic growth is mixed we also find that negative changes in economic activity lead to negative variations of energy use fourthly positive and negative shocks on the cyclical components of energy use and economic growth do not have over the time the same correlation with positive and negative shocks of one or other of the variables from the research that has been carried out it appears that sound economic policy decisions require information on the asymmetric linkage between energy use and economic growth

electricity consumption and economic growth in south africa a trivariate causality test abstract in this paper we examine the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in south africa we incorporate the employment rate as an intermittent variable in the bivariate model between electricity consumption and economic growth thereby creating a simple trivariate causality framework our empirical results show that there is a distinct bidirectional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth in south africa in addition the results show that employment in south africa granger causes economic growth the results apply irrespective of whether the causality is estimated in the short run or in the long run formulation the study therefore recommends that policies geared towards the expansion of the electricity infrastructure should be intensified in south africa in order to cope with the increasing demand exerted by the country s strong economic growth and rapid industrialisation programme this will certainly enable the country to avoid unprecedented power outages similar to those experienced in the country in mid january 2008

cooperative outcomes through noncooperative games abstract this paper shows the equivalence between the stable solution set of any cooperative game in characteristic form g1 and the subgame perfect nash equilibria in pure strategies of a certain noncooperative game g2 players of g1 are named agents g2 is played by different players principals who compete in wages to attract agents the equivalence result holds when there are enough principals if the game is superadditive two principals suffice finally another related cooperative game g3 is constructed with both principals and agents as players for g2 and g3 the same result is then proven for any number of principals journal of economic literature classification numbers c71 and c72

bounds testing approach to analyzing the environment kuznets curve hypothesis with structural beaks the role of biomass energy consumption in the united states abstract this paper re examines the specification of the environmental kuznets curve ekc for the us economy by accounting for the presence of a major renewable energy source and trade openness over the period 1960 2016 biomass energy consumption and trade openness as well as oil prices are considered as additional determinants of economic growth and consequentially of co 2 emissions the bounds testing approach to cointegration is used to examine the long run relationship between the variables in the presence of structural breaks the causal relationship between the variables is investigated by applying the vecm granger causality test and accommodating structural breaks the results confirm the presence of cointegration between the variables moreover the relationship between economic growth and co 2 emissions is not only inverted u shaped but also n shaped in the presence of structural breaks and biomass biomass energy consumption lowers co 2 emissions exports imports and trade openness are also environment friendly the causality analysis underscores a feedback effect between biomass energy consumption and co 2 emissions economic growth still granger causes co 2 emissions in this new setup

a dynamic panel study of economic development and the electricity consumption growth nexus abstract this study examines the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth for 88 countries categorized into four panels based on the world bank income classification high upper middle lower middle and low income within a multivariate panel framework over the period 1990 2006 the larsson et al 2001 panel cointegration test indicates there is a long run equilibrium relationship between real gdp coal consumption real gross fixed capital formation and the labor force for the high upper middle and lower middle income country panels the results from the panel vector error correction models reveal 1 bidirectional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth in both the short and long run for the high income and upper middle income country panels 2 unidirectional causality from electricity consumption to economic growth in the short run but bidirectional causality in the long run for the lower middle income country panel and 3 unidirectional causality from electricity consumption to economic growth for the low income country panel

causal relationships between energy consumption foreign direct investment and economic growth for mint evidence from panel dynamic ordinary least square models abstract this research examines the interactions between economic growth energy consumption and foreign direct investment among other factors using a panel dynamic ordinary least squares model for mexico indonesia nigeria and turkey mint because they are emerging economies have large population and favorable demography with high expectation for strong economic growth to make the analysis more homogenous these interactions were examined for individual country and as a group from 1990 to 2014 and coefficients of their long run economic growth function estimated there exist a bi directional causal relationships between economic growth energy consumption and fdi inflows for mexico a bi directional causal relationships between economic growth and energy consumption between economic growth and fdi inflows and an uni directional causal relationship from fdi to energy consumption for indonesia there also exist a bi directional causal relationships between economic growth and energy consumption between economic growth and fdi inflows and an uni directional causal relationship from fdi to energy consumption for nigeria while turkey had a bi directional causal relationships between economic growth energy consumption and fdi inflows global panel reveals that there exist a bi directional causal relationships between economic growth and energy consumption between economic growth and fdi inflows and an uni directional causal relationship from fdi to energy consumption diversification of economy to improve labor productivity is encouraged and over reliance on fossil fuel should be minimized

applied general equilibrium models of taxation and international trade an introduction and survey we wish to acknowledge the help of three referees and of john pencavel on several earlier drafts as well as the assistance of the modelers whose work is referred to in the paper they corrected our lack of understanding of their work and provided many other helpful comments excellent research and bibliographical assistance have been provided by debbie fretz radwan shaban and janet stotsky helpful comments have been made by charles ballard michael boskin lans bovenberg sylvester damus harvey galper glenn harrison gordon lenjosek jack mutti serena ng t n srinivasan charles stuart and eric toder the authors also acknowledgefinancial support from the national bureau of economic research the national science foundation international business machines and the social sciences and humanities research council ottawa canada

the causality relationship between energy consumption and gdp in g 11 countries revisited abstract this paper explores whether energy conservation policies can be implemented in countries with the same level of development that is is restraining energy consumption without compromising economic growth feasible in all industrialized countries a new granger non causality testing procedure developed by toda and yamamoto 1995 journal of econometrics 66 225 250 is applied to re investigate the relationship if any between energy consumption and income in 11 major industrialized countries the results clearly do not support the view that energy consumption and income are neutral with respect to each other except in the case of the united kingdom germany and sweden where a neutral relationship is found bi directional causality in the united states and uni directional running from energy consumption to gdp in canada belgium the netherlands and switzerland are found this indicates that energy conservation may hinder economic growth in the latter five countries further the causality relationship appears to be uni directional but reversed for france italy and japan which implies that in these three countries energy conservation may be viable without being detrimental to economic growth

energy consumption real income and temporal causality results from a multi country study based on cointegration and error correction modelling techniques abstract unlike previous studies on the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth this paper illustrates how the finding of cointegration i e long term equilibrium relationship between these variables may be used in testing granger causality based on the most recent johansen s multivariate cointegration tests preceded by various unit root or non stationarity tests we test for cointegration between total energy consumption and real income of six asian economies india pakistan malaysia singapore indonesia and the philippines non rejection of cointegration between variables rules out granger non causality and imples at least one way of granger causality either unidirectional or bidirectionial secondly by using a dynamic vector error correction model we then analyse the direction of granger causation and hence the within sample granger exogeneity or endogeneity of each of the variables thirdly the relative strength of the causality is gauged through the dynamic variance decomposition technique by decomposing the total impact of an unanticipated shock to each of the variables beyond the sample period into proportions attributable to shocks in the other variables including its own in the bivariate system results based on these tools of methodology indicate that while all pair wise relationships shared common univariate integrational properties only relationships for three countries india pakistan and indonesia were cointegrated for these countries temporal causality results were mixed with unidirectional causality from energy to income for india exactly the reverse for indonesia and mutual causality for pakistan the vdcs were not inconsistent with these results and provided us with an additional insight as to the relatively more dominant direction of causation in pakistan simple bivariate vector autoregressive models for the three non cointegrated systems did not indicate any direction of causality significantly in either direction

assessing feed in tariffs on wind power installation and industry development in taiwan abstract this study assesses the policy effects of feed in tariffs fits on taiwan s use of wind power and the growth of the country s wind power industry this study uses the system dynamics approach to develop a simulation model to assess the fit policy the simulation covering 2013 to 2025 shows that the fit scheme impacts taiwan s installed wind power capacity significantly before the targeted capacity is achieved on average a 10 increase in the fit price based on the 2013 price results in a one year early achievement of the target by contrast a 10 reduction in the fit price based on the 2013 price delays the achievement of the target by two to three years moreover the fit scheme can facilitate growth in taiwan s wind power industry every 10 increase or decrease in the fit increases or decreases industry growth by 1 12 when the fit is increased by 10 from 2 6258 nt kw h the 2020 cumulative output value of taiwan s wind power industry increases from nt 105 81 billion to nt 107 00 billion an increase of nt 1 19 billion the findings of this study indicate that the fit scheme is a policy tool that can achieve reductions in carbon emissions and facilitate the development of taiwan s wind power industry

developing countries and the gains from regionalism links between trade and farm policy reforms in mexico we use a multi country computable general equilibrium cge model with agricultural policy details to simulate the effects of north american free trade agreement nafta we find that mexico gains from nafta only when it also removes domestic distortions in agriculture in that case agriculture can generate allocative efficiency gains large enough to offset the terms of trade losses that arise because mexico has higher initial tariffs than its nafta partners when an rta forces a developing country to reform its domestic distortions that are linked to trade restrictions it becomes a building block toward multilateralism

reducing public health insurance expenditure a numerical analysis for germany in recent decades germany s statutory health insurance expenditure increased drastically to combat moral hazard moderate copayments for the purchase of prescription drugs were introduced and increased several times these measures however have been insufficient to buck the steadily increasing tide of germany s statutory health care expenditure making further reforms indispensable among a multitude of potential reform proposals such as a switch to a health premia regime are two policy options that provide for incentives to limit health care demand mandatory deductibles and further elevating copayments by combining an applied general equilibrium age model with abundant empirical data on heterogeneous household types this article investigates the economic effects of these two policy options thereby looking at both the current earnings related shi system and a hypothetical health premia regime characterized by per capita premia as a key outcome we find that the decrease in expenditure associa

electricity consumption and economic growth in seven south american countries abstract this paper attempts to investigate the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth among seven south american countries namely argentina brazil chile columbia ecuador peru and venezuela using widely accepted time series techniques for the period 1975 2006 the results indicate that the causal nexus between electricity consumption and economic growth varies across countries there is a unidirectional short run causality from electricity consumption to real gdp for argentina brazil chile columbia and ecuador this means that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth in those countries in venezuela there is a bidirectional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth this implies that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further electricity consumption in that country however no causal relationships exist in peru the documented evidence from seven south american countries can provide useful information for each government with regard to energy and growth policy

an investigation of co integration and causality between energy consumption and economic activity in taiwan applying hsiao a version of the granger causality method this paper examines the causality between energy and gnp and energy and employment by applying recently developed techniques of co integration and hsiao s version of the granger causality to taiwanese data for the 1955 1993 period the phillips perron tests reveal that the series with the exception of gnp are not stationary and therefore differencing is performed to secure stationarity the study finds causality running from gdp to energy consumption without feedback in taiwan it is also found that causality runs from gdp to energy but not vice versa

explaining the non causality between energy and economic growth in the u s a multivariate sectoral analysis the rapidly growing literature on the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth has not univocally identified the causal relationship yet we argue that bivariate models which analyze the causality only at the macro level are eventually misleading especially in cases where both variables do not cover the same scope of economic activity after discussing appropriate pairs of variables we investigate granger causality between energy and growth in the u s for the period from 1970 to 2007 for three sectors industry commercial sector transport as well as on the macro level using the recently developed ardl bounds testing approach by pesaran and shin 1999 and pesaran et al 2001 we find evidence for unidirectional long run granger causality in the commercial sector from growth to energy as well as evidence for bi directional long run granger causality in the transport sector the dependence of causality on the level of aggregation is interpreted as evidence for simpsons paradox the choice of control variables is based on findings from the environmental kuznets curve literature we find that controlling for the increasing energy productivity of production as well as trade significantly improves the fit of the bivariate model

the demand bargaining set general characterization and application to majority games abstract the cooperative solution concept introduced here the demand bargaining set contains the core and is included in the zhou bargaining set eliminating the dominated coalition structures the demand vectors belonging to the demand bargaining set are self stable in the class of constant sum homogeneous weighted majority games the demand bargaining set is nonempty and predicts a unique demand vector namely a proportional distribution within minimal winning coalitions the noncooperative implementation of the demand bargaining set is obtained for all the games that satisfy the one stage property

border tax adjustments and rationed foreign exchange abstract in the case of a traditional developed country the choice of tax base for border adjustments is thought of no consequence because of the long run neutrality of tax basis switches we show how border tax adjustments can be non neutral whether or not developing countries have rationed foreign exchange

bidding for the surplus a non cooperative approach to the shapley value abstract we propose a simple mechanism to determine how the surplus generated by cooperation is to be shared in zero monotonic environments with transferable utility the mechanism consists of a bidding stage followed by a proposal stage we show that the subgame perfect equilibrium outcomes of this mechanism coincide with the vector of the shapley value payoffs we extend our results to implement the weighted shapley values finally we generalize our mechanism to handle arbitrary transferable utility environments the modified mechanism generates an efficient coalition structure and implements the shapley values of the super additive cover of the environment journal of economic literature classification numbers c71 c72

a new bargaining set of an n person game and endogenous coalition formation abstract the two most fundamental questions in cooperative game theory are when a game is played what coalitions will be formed and what payoff vectors will be chosen few solution concepts or theories in the current literature provide satisfactory answers to both questions answers are especially lacking for the first one in this paper we introduce a new bargaining set which is the first solution concept in cooperative game theory that provides answers to both fundamental questions endogenously journal of economic literature classification number c71

energy for economic growth industrialization environment and natural resources living with just enough abstract this study investigates the causal relationship between energy consumption i e nuclear energy consumption electricity power consumption and fossil fuels energy consumption and economic growth energy consumption and industrialization i e industrial gdp beverages and cigarettes energy consumption and environmental degradation i e carbon dioxide emissions population density and water resources and finally energy consumption and resource depletion i e mineral depletion energy depletion natural depletion and net forest depletion in pakistan over a period of 1975 2011 the granger causality gc test in the frequency domain using the pierce framework has been employed this gc test in the frequency domain relies on a modified version of the coefficient of coherence which they estimate in a nonparametric fashion and for which they derive the distributional properties the results infer that there exists uni directional causality running from nuclear energy to industrial gdp nuclear energy to water resources and nuclear energy to carbon dioxide emissions but not vice versa similarly electric power consumption granger cause agriculture gdp but not other way around further there is a bi directional causality running between electric power consumption to population density in pakistan fossil fuel granger cause industrial gdp and there is a bidirectional causality running between fossil fuel and population density moreover the findings show that the nature of causality among nuclear energy consumption agriculture nuclear energy consumption population density electric power consumption cigarettes production fossil fuel cigarettes and fossil fuels and agriculture value added are in favour of the neutrality hypothesis in pakistan the conclusion has been strengthen and have a very strong implications in the context of pakistan where we have economic and financial constraints and thus agreeing the bottom line living with the just enough

electricity consumption and economic growth a time series experience for 17 african countries abstract while the availability of electricity by itself is not a panacea for the economic and social problems facing africa the supply of electricity is nevertheless believed to be a necessary requirement for africa s economic and social development this paper tests the long run and causal relationship between electricity consumption per capita and real gross domestic product gdp per capita for 17 african countries for the period 1971 2001 using a newly developed cointegration test proposed by pesaran et al 2001 and using a modified version of the granger causality test due to toda and yamamoto 1995 the advantage of using these two approaches is that they both avoid the pre testing bias associated with conventional unit root and cointegration tests the empirical evidence shows that there was a long run relationship between electricity consumption per capita and real gdp per capita for only 9 countries and granger causality for only 12 countries for 6 countries there was a positive uni directional causality running from real gdp per capita to electricity consumption per capita an opposite causality for 3 countries and bi directional causality for the remaining 3 countries the result should however be interpreted with care as electricity consumption accounts for less than 4 of total energy consumption in africa and only grid supplied electricity is taken into account

exploring the relationship between energy use and economic growth with bivariate models new evidence from g 7 countries abstract there is a rapidly growing literature on the interaction between energy use and economic development with many analysts drawing policy conclusions on the basis of granger causality tests that involve only an energy and an economic variable this paper attempts to demonstrate empirically that such studies although useful for certain applications may be of limited use for policy purposes after outlining theoretical and methodological issues associated with such approaches i apply bivariate energy economy causality tests for canada france germany italy japan the united kingdom and the united states using aggregate and sectoral data and three different modern econometric methods the results which are often contradictory or economically implausible illustrate explicitly that one should be cautious when drawing policy implications with the aid of bivariate causality tests on small samples i therefore underline the importance of utilizing as large sample sizes as possible and using multivariate models which are closer to economic theory accommodate several mechanisms and causality channels and provide a better representation of real world interactions between energy use and economic growth

computable general equilibrium models for development policy analysis in ldcs abstract the use of cge models has gained much popularity among policy analysts in ldcs and there is a fast growing body of literature on this area of economics in this survey the advantages of general equilibrium approach over partial equilibrium approach in analysing a wide range of policy issues are highlighted the evolution of cge modelling is discussed and more than 60 cge applications related to different policy issues in ldcs are surveyed this comprehensive survey shows that the cge models have become quite popular analytical tools among policy analysts in ldcs over the last decade or so the debate in the economic profession regarding the value and appropriateness of using cge models for policy analysis is examined in the final section of this paper some of the criticisms levelled at cge models are discussed and it is argued that despite this criticism such models are capable of providing insight into important policy problems

a consistent bargaining set abstract both the core and the bargaining set fail to satisfy a natural requirement of consistency in excluding imputations to which there exist objections the core does not assess the credibility of such objections the bargaining set goes a step further only objections which have no counterobjections are considered justified however the credibility of counterobjections is not similarly assessed we formulate a notion of a consistent bargaining set in which each objection in a chain of objections is tested in precisely the same way as its predecessor various properties of the consistent bargaining set are also analyzed

implementation of bargaining sets via simple mechanisms abstract we propose two simple mechanisms that implement two bargaining sets in super additive environments the first bargaining set is a close variation of the one proposed by l zhou 1994 games econom behav 6 512 526 and the second is the pareto optimum payoffs of the a mas colell 1989 j math econom 18 129 139 bargaining set we adopt a simple framework in which the cooperative outcomes are realized as non cooperative subgame perfect equilibria in pure strategies of a two stage game played by an auxiliary set of individuals competing over the cooperative agents journal of economic literature classification numbers c71 c72

energy and economic growth in the usa a multivariate approach abstract this paper examines the causal relationship between gdp and energy use for the period 1947 90 in the usa the relationship between energy use and economic growth has been examined by both biophysical and neoclassical economists in particular several studies have tested for the presence of a causal relationship in the granger sense between energy use and economic growth however these tests do not allow a direct test of the relative explanatory powers of the neoclassical and biophysical models a multivariate adaptation of the test vector autoregression var does allow such a test a var of gdp energy use capital stock and employment is estimated and granger tests for causal relationships between the variables are carried out although there is no evidence that gross energy use granger causes gdp a measure of final energy use adjusted for changing fuel composition does granger cause gdp

electrical energy usage over the business cycle causality from macroeconomic conditions to electrical usage overall and in the residential commercial industrial and other sectors is examined the paper shows that changes in macroeconomic conditions cause significant changes in electrical usage in the commercial and industrial sectors and overall in addition the paper shows that causality occurs at business cycle frequencies and that there are asymmetries over the business cycle an implication is that forecasts used to assess the probability of exceeding capacity constraints should incorporate forecasts of macroeconomic conditions asymmetries over the cycle and how the commercial and industrial sectors will respond to such changes

short and long run elasticities in us residential electricity demand a co integration approach abstract co integration techniques show promise in the analysis of short and long run effects of economic variables on energy use we use these techniques to develop an error correction model of annual us residential electricity demand we construct equipment stock indices and estimate the model for 1949 1993 our analysis suggests a structural shift in consumption during the 1960s we discuss reasons for this shift report the short and long run elasticities provide forecasts for 1994 1995 and compare the model s forecasts with other published forecasts

foreign exchange premia and non neutrality of monetary policy in general equilibrium models abstract we present a simple monetized extension of a traditional small country real side general equilibrium trade model in which premia on foreign exchange occur with the value of the quota and the quota premium endogenously determined monetary policy is non neutral in the model and has real effects illustrated using a small open economy general equilibrium model of the philippines which includes foreign exchange premia the results emphasize the importance of incorporating domestic monetary policy fixed exchange rates and associated foreign exchange premia when analyzing the trade policy regime in such a country

the relationship between energy and gnp further results this paper reexamines the casuality between gnp and energy consumption by using updated us data for the period 1947 1979 as a secondary contribution we investigate the causal relationship between energy consumption and employment applying sims technique we find no causal relationship between gnp and energy consumption we find further that there is a slight unidirectional flow running from employment to energy consumption economic interpretations of the empirical results are also presented

a note on the causal relationship between energy and gdp in taiwan abstract this paper re examines the causality between energy consumption and gdp by using updated taiwan data for the period 1954 1997 as a secondary contribution we investigate the causal relationship between gdp and the aggregate as well as several disaggregate categories of energy consumption including coal oil natural gas and electricity applying granger s technique we find bidirectional causality between total energy consumption and gdp we find further that different directions of cause exist between gdp and various kinds of energy consumption

electricity consumption and economic growth in china cointegration and co feature analysis abstract this paper applies the cointegration theory to examine the causal relationship between electricity consumption and real gdp gross demostic product for china during 1978 2004 our estimation results indicate that real gdp and electricity consumption for china are cointegrated and there is only unidirectional granger causality running from electricity consumption to real gdp but not the vice versa then hodrick prescott hp filter is applied to decompose the trend and fluctuation component of the gdp and electricity consumption series the estimation results indicate that there is cointegration between not only the trend components but also the cyclical components of the two series which implies that the granger causality is probably related with the business cycle the estimation results are of policy implication to the development of electric sector in china

dynamic modelling of energy consumption capital stock and real income in g 7 countries abstract this paper applies an aggregate production function to examine the dynamic linkages among energy consumption capital stock and real income real gdp per capita in g 7 counties we employ the toda and yamamoto 1995 granger causality test the generalized impulse response approach and variance decompositions in a multivariate setting to uncover the extent and the magnitude of the relationship among variables our empirical results find evidence of a unidirectional relationship running from energy consumption to real income in canada italy and the uk indicating that energy conservation may hinder economic growth in the three countries furthermore the causality relationship appears to be unidirectional but reversed for france and japan implying that energy conservation in both countries may still be viable but without being detrimental to economic growth as to germany and the u s there is no causality between the variables which demonstrates the neutrality hypothesis and in such a case economic growth will not affect energy use we further see that the impact of capital stock is relatively higher compared with that of energy consumption transitory initial impacts of innovations in energy consumption on capital stock and real income are observed

the demand bargaining set the cooperative solution concept introduced here the demand bargaining set contains the core and is included in the zhou bargaining set eliminating the dominated coalition structures the demand vectors belonging to the demand bargaining set are self stable in the class of constant sum homogeneous weighted majority games the demand bargaining set is non empty and predicts a unique demand vector namely a proportional distribution within minimal winning coalitions the noncooperative implementation of the demand bargaining set is obtained for all the games that satisfy the one stage property

joint trade liberalization and tax reform in a small open economy the case of egypt abstract we develop a cge model of the egyptian economy to analyze the impact of various trade liberalization scenarios allowing distortionary domestic taxes to vary endogenously in order to satisfy a fixed real government revenue target we decompose computed welfare gains into effects from tax reform trade reform and their interaction scenarios include removal or unification of the consumption tax capital tax or both and tariff unification a free trade agreement with the european union and unilateral tariff elimination welfare effects depend critically on the type of revenue replacement tax while both are important neither trade policy reform nor tax reform dominates

a multivariate cointegration analysis of the role of energy in the us macroeconomy abstract this paper extends my previous analysis of the causal relationship of gdp and energy use in the usa in the post war period a majority of the relevant variables are integrated justifying a cointegration analysis the results show that cointegration does occur and that energy input cannot be excluded from the cointegration space the results are plausible in terms of macroeconomic dynamics the results are similar to my previous granger causality results and contradict claims in the literature based on bivariate models that there is no cointegration between energy and output

rural urban effects of terminating farm subsidies a rural urban interregional computable general equilibrium cge model is constructed to simulate the effects of terminating farm subsidies on household incomes employment rates farm and non farm sectoral activity regional costs of living and other economic indicators the magnitudes of the effects depend on regional factor and goods market segmentation robust short run implications are that ceasing farm subsidies would cause rural nonfarm particularly household service sector employment to fall and lead to lower household income on the other hand rural manufacturing activity expands and the cost of living falls relative to urban urban employment household income and land rents rise although termination of farm subsidies causes a decline in rural real product the urban real product gain outweighs rural losses

linear and nonlinear granger causality between electricity production and economic performance in mexico abstract understanding the granger causality directions between electricity production ep and gross domestic product gdp is helpful for policymakers in order to design redesign and implement effective energy policies although there are plenty of studies on this issue no consistent conclusion about said relationship exists in this paper we provide an updated analysis for the case of mexico in the context of the design and implementation of a new energy policy we employ three tests 2 linear and one nonlinear and find no evidence of causal relation in a granger sense between ep and gdp for the 1965 2018 period our results suggest that mexican policymakers should consider enriching the bill by further designing policies that directly seek to promote a self sufficient electricity sector by enhancing generation output by private actors and transmission capacity

an empirical analysis of the relationship between oil prices and the chinese macro economy using the quarterly data from the first quarter of 1996 to the fourth quarter of 2014 this paper studies the relationship between oil prices and the chinese macro economy we find output and interest rate respond significantly to oil price shocks further analysis reveals that the positive response of output to oil price shocks is attributed to the influences of oil price shocks on exports the oil price shocks have both longer and deeper effects on the exports of state owned enterprises than on those of foreign investment enterprises moreover the response of exports to oil price shocks is symmetric finally oil prices are found to be useful for forecasting the china s exports in the periods shorter than about two years

bargaining and bargaining sets abstract we argue that in exchange economies various versions of the bargaining set cannot be implemented in nash equilibrium we then propose an extensive form mechanism that exactly implements the aumann davis maschler bargaining set in subgame perfect equilibrium the mechanism corresponds closely to the description of the bargaining set and respects feasibility in and out of equilibrium journal of economic literature classification numbers c71 c72 c78 d51

a shoven whalley model of a small open economy an illustration with philippine tariffs abstract this paper describes an applied general equilibrium model of a price taking economy in both imports and exports sector specific factors are incorporated to avoid complete specialization problems a hicksian composite traded good market is used for achieving trade balance in the model foreign and domestic goods are assumed perfect substitutes for illustration philippine tariffs and export taxes are analyzed using the model

the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in the asean countries abstract this paper investigates the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth among the association of south east asian nations asean 4 members namely indonesia malaysia singapore and thailand using modern time series techniques for the period 1971 2002 the results indicate that there is a bi directional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth in malaysia and singapore this means that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further electricity consumption in the two countries however uni directional causality runs from economic growth to electricity consumption in indonesia and thailand without any feedback effect thus electricity conservation policies can be initiated without deteriorating economic side effects in the two countries

subgame perfect implementation this paper examines the use of stage mechanisms in implementation problems and provides a partial characterization of the set of subgam e perfect implementable choice rules it is shown that in many economic environments virtually an y choice rule can be implemented to illustrate the power of this approach the paper discusses a number of models in which it is possible to implement the first best although it wouldn t have been possible to do so without using stage mechanisms the diversity of these models suggests that subgame perfect implementation may find wide application copyright 1988 by the econometric society

immiserizing growth and endogenous protection abstract this paper focuses on immiserizing growth in the two senses of bhagwati 1958 and johnson 1967 and how both the likelihood that either may occur and their extent can be affected by the presence of endogenous protection i e quota and other forms of protection for which the ad valorem equivalent level of protection is endogeneously determined we use a general equilibrium model of the philippines due to clarete 1984 to compute counterfactual equilibria involving changes in domestic policies terms of trade and resource endowments immiserizing growth in the sense of bhagwati is less likely because the terms of trade fall required to offset the growth of resources has to be significantly larger if no distortions are in the model immiserizing growth in the sense of johnson tends to be more likely if endogeneous protection is present as unbalanced growth occurs focused on the factor intensive in the protected sector resources are drawn out of the export sector and export earnings decline and if the level of protection is endogenously determined the welfare costs of protection increase

rational bargaining in games with coalitional externalities this paper provides a flexible strategic framework to analyze bargaining and values in environments with coalitional externalities within this framework we propose a new value that extends the shapley value to partition function form games the so called rational belief shapley rbs value we investigate the strategic foundation of the rbs value by constructing an implementation mechanism this mechanism extends existing models of multilateral bargaining by allowing players a higher degree of freedom to form coalitions the same framework of bidding and renegotiation allows for natural variations of the rbs mechanism in this way alternative shapley like values are obtained and a unified platform to analyze and compare these solutions is provided

faraway so close coupled climate and economic dynamics in an agent based integrated assessment model abstract in this work we develop an agent based model that offers an alternative to standard computable general equilibrium integrated assessment models iams the dystopian schumpeter meeting keynes dsk model is composed of heterogeneous firms belonging to capital good consumption good and energy sectors production and energy generation lead to greenhouse gas emissions which affect temperature dynamics climate damages are modelled at the individual level as stochastic shocks hitting workers labour productivity energy efficiency capital stock and inventories of firms in that aggregate damages emerge from the aggregation of losses suffered by heterogeneous interacting and boundedly rational agents the model is run focusing on a business as usual carbon intensive scenario consistent with a representative concentration pathway 8 5 we find that the dsk model is able to account for a wide ensemble of micro and macro empirical regularities concerning both economic and climate dynamics simulation experiments show a substantial lack of isomorphism between the effects of micro and macro level shocks as it is typical in complex system models in particular different types of shocks have heterogeneous impact on output growth unemployment rate and the likelihood of economic crises pointing to the importance of the different economic channel affected by the shock overall we report much larger climate damages than those projected by standard iams under comparable scenarios suggesting possible shifts in the growth dynamics from a self sustained pattern to stagnation and high volatility and the need of urgent policy interventions

the uruguay round and welfare in some distorted agricultural economies abstract the uruguay round s induced changes in world agricultural prices will affect the welfare of developing countries the standard terms of trade effect calculation can mislead since the distortion effect operates alongside the terms of trade effect this study of the uruguay round s impact on nine agricultural economies reveals distortion effects which are many times larger than terms of trade effects in three of nine cases the distortion effect reverses the impact of the terms of trade effect in two other cases the distortion effect raises trivial terms of trade effect up to around 1 of national income

energy consumption and gdp revisited a panel analysis of developed and developing countries this paper applies a new panel data stationarity testing procedure first developed by carrion i silvestre et al 2005 econometrics journal 8 159 175 with panel vars that employ the generalized method of moment techniques in order to re investigate the dynamic interactions between energy consumption per capita lec and real gdp per capita lry in 22 developed and 18 developing countries when multiple breaks in the series are taken into account there is convincing evidence of panel stationarity for lec and lry in both groups the energy crises evidently had a substantive impact on both lec and lry in all sample countries furthermore our panel vars attest to bidirectional causality between lec and lry in developed countries but there is uni directional causality from lry to lec in developing countries finally from the orthogonalized impulse response functions all of the variables in the panel vars have a positive effect on each other but their impact is greater and more persistent in developing countries some important policy implications do emerge

the causal link between energy and output growth evidence from markov switching granger causality abstract in this paper we empirically investigate the causal link between energy consumption and economic growth employing a markov switching granger causality analysis we carry out our investigation using annual u s real gdp total final energy consumption and total primary energy consumption data which cover the period between 1968 and 2010 we find that there are significant changes in the causal relation between energy consumption and economic growth over the sample period under investigation our results show that total final energy consumption and total primary energy consumption have significant predictive content for real economic activity in the u s economy furthermore the causality running from energy consumption to output growth seems to be strongly apparent particularly during the periods of economic downturn and energy crisis we also document that output growth has predictive power in explaining total energy consumption furthermore the power of output growth in predicting total energy consumption is found to diminish after the mid of 1980s

the effects of inside and outside money on industrial production across spectral frequency bands this paper examines money income causality using band spectral filtering techniques the paper s central finding is that relatively low frequency movements in outside money are responsible for the relationship between money and economic activity this result is inconsistent with theoretical models in which unanticipated changes in money are responsible for movements in real activity reverse causality is also examined the results are not supportive of a strong feedback relationship from income to inside money however there is evidence of strong feedback from income to outside money

a meta analysis investigation of the direction of the energy gdp causal relationship implications for the growth degrowth dialogue abstract the complex relation between energy use and the economic process has long attracted attention issues such as the scarcity of energy resources energy theory of value degrowth and a growth approaches are closely related to the relationship between energy and development the present study traces the implications of the energy gdp causality dialogue for the context of the growth degrowth debate where the energy development link plays a decisive role in that context the present research investigates the possible existence of a fundamental macro direction of causality between energy use and economic growth that is not influenced by study specific characteristics and events towards this objective we perform a meta analysis that takes into account 158 studies on causality between energy and gdp covering the period 1978 2011 this is the first time to our knowledge that meta analysis has been applied to investigate the direction of the energy and gdp causal relationship the meta analysis results neither support the existence of a fundamental macro direction nor the so called neutrality hypothesis e gdp in the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth

a noncooperative view of coalition formation and the core a noncooperative implementation of the core is provided for games with transferable utility the implementation obtained here is meant to reflect the standard motivation for the core as closely as possible in the model proposed time is continuous this idealized treatment of time is most amenable for capturing an essential feature of the core there is always time to reject a noncore proposal before it is consumated

long term relationships of major macro variables in a resource related economic model of australia a cointegration analysis abstract the paper reports the results of a simple cointegration analysis applied to bivariate causality models using data on resource output oil prices terms of trade current account and output growth to investigate the long term relationships in the sense of granger among these major macroeconomic aggregates in a resource related economic model of australia for the period 1960 90 the empirical evidence indicates that these five macro variables as formulated in our model are not random walks in addition resource production and oil prices are significantly cointegrated and they are also significantly cointegrated with the current account terms of trade and economic growth these findings provide support to the long term adjustments foundation of our resource related model

interactions between trade policies and domestic distortions in a small open developing country abstract this paper reports results from a price taking open economy numerical general equilibrium model of the philippines whose purpose is to explore the ways in which trade policies and other domestic distortions interact in a small open developing economy the trade policies featured in the model include tariffs export taxes and import quotas while the domestic distortions considered are rent seeking and harris todaro labour market dualism results clearly indicate that interactions between trade policies and other domestic distortions are significant and need to be more fully considered in numerical economic policy analyses for developing countries

the effects of money growth on inflation and interest rates across spectral frequency bands band spectral regression techniques are used to identify the frequency bands that are most important in the relationships between money growth and inflation and between money growth and the nominal interest rate the results show that cycles in the growth rate of m1 from one to two years long produce higher frequency cycles in inflation and two distinct sets of higher frequency cycles in changes in the nominal interest rate the results support models where predictable changes in money growth produce liquidity and anticipated inflation effects on nominal interest rates copyright 1994 by ohio state university press