low inflation the behavior of financial markets and institutions this paper provides a broad overview of the potential impact of low inflation deflation on u s financial markets and institutions it is argued that the contemporary experience of japan and the historical experience of the united states in the 1920s and 1930s offer only limited insights into the potential impact of low inflation deflation on today s u s financial system a number of potential implications are discussed including a decline in secondary market trading and a trend towards reintermediation in addition low inflation deflation is likely to have a material effect on bank duration and convexity exposures

assortment planning and inventory decisions under stockout based substitution we present an efficient dynamic programming algorithm to determine the optimal assortment and inventory levels in a single period problem with stockout based substitution in our model total customer demand is random and comprises fixed proportion of customers of different types customer preferences are modeled through the definition of these types each customer type corresponds to a specific preference ordering among products a customer purchases the highest ranked product according to his type if any that is available at the time of his visit to the store stockout based substitution we solve the optimal assortment problem using a dynamic programming formulation we establish structural properties of the value function of the dynamic program that in particular help to characterize multiple local maxima we use the properties of the optima to solve the problem in pseudopolynomial time our algorithm also gives a heuristic for the general case i e when the proportion of customers of each type is random in numerical tests this heuristic performs better and faster than previously known methods especially when the mean demand is large the degree of substitutability is high the population is homogeneous or prices and or costs vary across products

are legislative tv and campaign finance regulations complementary entry barriers evidence from the usa the present study examines the political use of legislative television and campaign finance restrictions as either complementary or substitutable forms of entry barriers using data from the 50 states for 1976 results from a simultaneous probit procedure indicate that where campaign finance regulations are relaxed demand for televised house sessions is increased results also suggest that the presence of televised proceedings increases the restrictiveness of a state s campaign finance rules thus supporting the hypothesis that legislative television and campaign finance restrictions serve incumbent legislators as complementary institutional entry barriers mixon 2002 supports this view by providing examples of outlets for voters to scrutinize elected legislators at the federal level in the united states for instance legislative positions for members of congress are often described in detail by nationally circulated periodicals such as time and newsweek and in widely circulated newspapers such as th

assortment planning in fashion retailing methodology application and analysis abstract assortment planning is the process conducted by the retailer to determine the number and types of products in a line key questions that arise in this process include choosing the inventory depth and variety breadth and the mix between basic and fashion merchandise of the assortment to maximize expected profits we describe a method for resolving these questions using demand forecasts derived from historical sales patterns we use a nonlinear integer programming model to make the assortment choice efficient heuristics are developed to solve this problem we applied our method at a large catalog retailer specializing in women s apparel we compared our method to the existing rules used by this retailer and found that it could choose the assortment in a manner that reduces markdowns due to excessive inventory and lost margins due to stockouts by enough to increase profits by at least 40 insights are developed to better understand why products are included in an assortment and the implications of this choice on the realized profit we extend our model to include shelf space constraints and the effect of assortment choice on product demand

pricing decision for substitutable products with retail competition in a fuzzy environment abstract this paper studies the pricing problem of substitutable products in a supply chain with one manufacturer and two competitive retailers the consumer demands and manufacturing costs are of uncertainty which are described by fuzziness based on different market structures one centralized pricing model and three decentralized pricing models are developed and the corresponding analytical equilibrium solutions are obtained using the game theoretic approach finally numerical examples are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the theoretical results and to gain additional managerial insights

single period multiproduct inventory models with substitution we study a single period multiproduct inventory problem with substitution and proportional costs and revenues we consider n products and n demand classes with full downward substitution i e excess demand for class i can be satisfied using product j for i j we first discuss a two stage profit maximization formulation for the multiproduct substitution problem we show that a greedy allocation policy is optimal we use this to write the expected profits and its first partials explicitly this in turn enables us to prove additional properties of the profit function and several interesting properties of the optimal solution in a limited computational study using two products we illustrate the benefits of solving for the optimal quantities when substitution is considered at the ordering stage over similar computations without considering substitution while ordering specifically we show that the benefits are higher with high demand variability low substitution cost low profit margins or low price to cost ratio high salvage values and similarity of products in terms of prices and costs

the competitive newsboy we consider a competitive version of the classical newsboy problem in which a firm must choose an inventory or production level for a perishable good with random demand and the optimal solution is a fractile of the demand distribution and investigate the impact of competition upon industry inventory a splitting rule specifies how initial industry demand is allocated among competing firms and how any excess demand is allocated among firms with remaining inventory we examine the relation between equilibrium inventory levels and the splitting rule and provide conditions under which there is a unique equilibrium our most general result is that if all excess demand is reallocated i e there is perfect substitutability then competition never leads to a decrease in industry inventory

do banks pass through credit expansions to consumers who want to borrow we examine the ability of policymakers to stimulate household spending during the great recession by reducing banks cost of funds using panel data on 8 5 million credit cards and 743 credit limit regression discontinuities we find that the one year marginal propensity to borrow mpb is declining in credit score falling from 59 for consumers with fico scores below 660 to essentially zero for consumers with fico scores above 740 we use the same credit limit discontinuities combined with a model of lending to estimate banks marginal propensity to lend mpl out of a decrease in their cost of funds for the lowest fico score consumers higher credit limits sharply reduce profits from lending limiting banks incentives to pass through credit expansions to these consumers we conclude that banks mpl is lowest for consumers with the highest mpb and discuss the implications for policies that aim to stimulate the economy through banks

does the deposits channel work under a low interest rate environment abstract according to the deposits channel of monetary policy central banks can influence the deposits holdings and the loan supply by changing the policy rate this paper discusses the generality of this channel and shows that low interest rates may turn this channel off this result contributes to the literature on unintended effects of monetary policy and banks profitability in a low interest rate environment

the currency dimension of the bank lending channel in international monetary transmission abstract we investigate how the use of a currency transmits monetary policy changes in the global banking system we use a newly available rarely accessed dataset on the bilateral cross border lending flows of 27 bis reporting lending banking systems to borrowers in 51 countries broken down by currency denomination usd eur and jpy we have three main findings first we identify a currency dimension of the international bank lending channel monetary changes in a currency significantly affect cross border lending flows in that currency even when neither the lending banking system nor the target country uses that currency as their own second this transmission works mainly through lending to non banks third the currency dimension of the bank lending channel works similarly across the three currencies suggesting that the usd may not be unique in this respect

sovereign stress and smes access to finance evidence from the ecb s safe survey abstract we study the effect of sovereign stress on smes capital structure using restricted access data from the european central bank we find that during the sovereign debt crisis and controlling for borrowers quality firms in stressed countries became more likely to be denied credit to be credit rationed and to face higher loan rates less creditworthy firms were not more likely to become credit constrained suggesting no flight to quality in lending we also find that in order to make up for the decline in bank credit firms in stressed countries began relying considerably more on retained earnings and government subsidies

a static approximation for dynamic demand substitution with applications in a competitive market we propose a static approximation of dynamic demand substitution behavior based on a fluid network model and a service inventory mapping this approximation greatly enhances our ability to analyze the interdependent inventory service price and product assortment decisions in noncompetitive and competitive scenarios with demand substitution we demonstrate that the approximation is well behaved and then apply it to two previously intractable applications first we study a price and service competition between single product retailers after establishing a unique pure strategy nash equilibrium we find that competition results in lower price higher demand and a higher level of inventory we also observe that the aggregate profit and inventory level increase to positive constants as the number of retailers goes to infinity second we study a duopolistic competition on price service and product assortment we establish a pure strategy nash equilibrium for the product assortment competition and identify a condition for uniqueness we find that competition on both price and product assortment results in lower price and less variety for each competitor but the total number of products and the aggregate inventory level in a duopoly market are both likely to be higher than in a monopolistic market

money and votes reconsidered congressional elections 1972 1982 the evolution of congressional campaign finance over the past decade is characterized by steady growth in campaign spending and other notable changes in campaign finance practices the main purpose of the research reported here was to determine whether these changes have altered the effects of campaign spending on election outcomes this required reexamination of auxiliary questions concerning how sending effects operate and can be measured it also required facing the limits of what analysis of aggregate campaign spending data can tell us about money in elections replication of ols and 2sls analyses of campaign spending effects produced solidly consistent results over the six congressional elections held between 1972 and 1982 taken at face value the evidence is overwhelming that the challenger s level of spending has a strong impact on the vote whereas that of the incumbent has virtually no impact at all but the evidence remains open to doubt on two grounds one is the probable inadequacy of the 2sls model or perhaps any possible model leaving the issue of simultaneity bias unsettled if bias remains the estimates exaggerate the electoral effects of the challenger s campaign expenditures the issue cannot be resolved with more of the same data but rather requires data of a different sort surveys taken over the course of a sample of campaigns would do the trick meanwhile i think it would be foolish to make policy on the assumption that bias is in fact substantial the greatest likelihood remains that restrictions on campaign money will have the general effect of hurting challengers jacobson 1979 the other doubtful albeit equally stable finding is that incumbents do not gain votes by spending in campaigns no incumbent seems to believe it and there is at least circumstantial evidence from for example the 1982 elections that their skepticism is quite justified if so the problem lies in the limits of what aggregate data of the kind analyzed here can tell us few incumbents do not spend heavily when they are strongly challenged if both candidates spend beyond the point needed to become thoroughly familiar to voters then the substance of the campaigns the contents of campaign messages become the dominant factors incumbents may need to spend money in order to change the message as new circumstances arise to frame new issues that would help them most or damage them least to win the battle of establishing the real issues like nonincumbents sitting members may sometimes need to spend beyond a certain threshold to remain competitive but nearly all of them do so when the necessity arises so aggregate spending data are largely uninformative how the money is spent rather than how much is what matters the two most notable developments in congressional campaign finance have opposing implications national party organizations particularly the republican have assumed an increasingly important role in financing campaigns greater central control leads to a more efficient distribution of the party s collective campaign resources which among other things promises to raise the overall level of electoral competition it also leads to more coordinated campaigning with greater emphasis on national themes and programs thus it should foster more cooperation and loyalty among fellow partisans in congress but pacs have also grown in numbers and in financial importance because most concentrate on gaining access to incumbents they do little to make elections more competitive because they usually pursue narrowly defined interests their influence fragments the congress and weakens party coalitions in this and other ways parties and pacs are natural rivals the most consequential decisions taken in the next round in campaign finance policy will be those which affect the relative importance of parties and pacs see u s congress 1984 for comments on this and other current campaign finance issues

the implications of costs capacity and competition on product line selection we consider a situation in which a manufacturer has to select the product s to sell as well as the selling price and production quantity of each selected product there are two substitutable products in the consideration set where product 2 has a higher quality and reservation price than that of product 1 by considering the cannibalization effect that depends on the selling price of each product the manufacturer needs to evaluate the profit function associated with three different product line options sell both products or only one of the 2 products in order to examine the impact of costs capacity and competition on the optimal product line selection optimal price and optimal production quantity analytically we present a stylized model in this paper so that we can determine the conditions under which a particular option is optimal

optimal and competitive assortments with endogenous pricing under hierarchical consumer choice models this paper studies assortment planning and pricing for a product category with heterogeneous product types from two brands we model consumer choice using the nested multinomial logit framework with two different hierarchical structures a brand primary model in which consumers choose a brand first then a product type in the chosen brand and a type primary model in which consumers choose a product type first then a brand within that product type we consider a centralized regime that finds the optimal solution for the whole category and a decentralized regime that finds a competitive equilibrium between two brands we find that optimal and competitive assortments and prices have quite distinctive properties across different models specifically with the brand primary model both the optimal and the competitive assortments for each brand consist of the most popular product types from the brand with the type primary choice model the optimal and the competitive assortments for each brand may not always consist of the most popular product types of the brand instead the overall assortment in the category consists of a set of most popular product types the price of a product under the centralized regime can be characterized by a sum of a markup that is constant across all products and brands its procurement cost and its marginal operational cost implying a lower price for more popular products the markup may be different for each brand and product type under the decentralized regime implying a higher price for brands with a larger market share these properties of the assortments and prices can be used as effective guidelines for managers to identify and price the best assortments and to rule out nonoptimal assortments our results suggest that to offer the right set of products and prices category and or brand managers should create an assortment planning process that is aligned with the hierarchical choice process consumers commonly follow to make purchasing decisions this paper was accepted by pradeep chintagunta and preyas desai special issue editors this paper was accepted by pradeep chintagunta and preyas desai special issue editors

an integrated assortment and shelf space optimization model with demand substitution and space elasticity effects abstract retailers must define their assortments and assign shelf space to the items included in these assortments these two planning problems are mutually dependent if space is scarce we formulate a model that maximizes a retailer s profit by selecting the optimal assortment and assigning limited shelf space to items this model is the first decision model to integrate assortment and shelf space planning by considering stochastic and space elastic demand out of assortment and out of stock substitution effects to solve the model we develop a specialized heuristic that efficiently yields near optimal results even for large scale problems we show that our approach outperforms alternative approaches e g a sequential planning approach that first picks assortments and then assigns shelf space by up to 18 and a greedy algorithm by up to 16 in terms of profit we test our model on two real data sets for perishable and non perishable items and show how it can support retailers in increasing their profits by up to 25 we then use the model to generalize these results and find that space elasticity and substitution effects have a significant impact on profits assortment size as well as facing decisions and that both effects reinforce each other using our model we finally derive rules of thumb for planners in practice

term limits causes and consequences this paper consults multiple literatures to specify andevaluate the economic rationales for term limitation particularly on congress i first consider theories that aroseto explain among related issues why individual states mightunilaterally self impose term limits on their own delegationsto congress next i consider two main lines of argument foruniversal limits both of which begin with the empiricalphenomenon of high and rising congressional tenure first supporters of term limits argue that higher tenure biaseslegislatures toward inefficiency big government highspending second higher tenure creates inefficient anti competitive conditions in the legislative election market term limitation would remedy these inefficiencies by virtue ofdecreasing average tenure these claims are then evaluated inlight of the evidence amassed in the literature based on theliterature reviewed this paper finds that while term limitswill reduce average tenure there is no evidence to suggestthat term limits will affect the underlying causes of theseinefficiencies further research on a more general reform which would strike deeper at these underlying causes isimplied

policy uncertainty lender of last resort and the real economy abstract a reduction in lender of last resort lolr policy uncertainty positively affects bank lending and propagates to investment and employment we exploit a unique policy that reduced uncertainty regarding the availability of future lolr funding for banks as a quasi natural experiment using micro level data on banks firms and loans in portugal we generate cross sectional variation in banks exposure to uncertainty and find that the size of the haircut subsidy the gap between private market and central bank security valuations plays a key role in the propagation of the shock to lending and the real economy

an efficient algorithm for capacitated assortment planning with stochastic demand and substitution abstract the ever increasing product variety in grocery retailing is in conflict with the limited shelf space managing the assortment and regular order quantity for perishable and non perishable products is therefore a core task for retailers retailers want to maximize profit by considering potential revenues purchase costs diminishing profits for products and opportunity costs for unfulfilled demand when determining assortment sizes and order volume to meet stochastic consumer demand we considered a newsvendor based decision model that jointly optimizes assortment size and the associated order volumes for listed items the model considers out of assortment ooa and out of stock oos substitution effects the model is a structural equivalent to the model described in kok and fisher 2007 and solved there via a heuristic procedure we develop an optimal solution procedure and a time efficient heuristic that solves the model the heuristic suggested is applicable for practically relevant large scale problem instances numerical tests reveal that the heuristic procedure produces close to optimal solutions and outperforms the kok and fisher heuristic with regard to both computational time and solution quality a simulation study with discrete demand justifies our approach with using continuous demand distributions the numerical analyses show that considering substitution effects in a decision based model has a significant impact on the total profit and solution structure further managerial insights are presented with regard to assortment heterogeneity when shelf size substitution and demand variability are varied

stocking retail assortments under dynamic consumer substitution we analyze a single period stochastic inventory model newsboy like model in which a sequence of heterogeneous customers dynamically substitute among product variants within a retail assortment when inventory is depleted the customer choice decisions are based on a natural and classical utility maximization criterion faced with such substitution behavior the retailer must choose initial inventory levels for the assortment to maximize expected profits using a sample path analysis we analyze structural properties of the expected profit function we show that under very general assumptions on the demand process total sales of each product are concave in their own inventory levels and possess the so calleddecreasing differences property meaning that the marginal value of an additional unit of the given product is decreasing in the inventory levels of all other products for a continuous relaxation of the problem we then show via counterexamples that the expected profit function is in general not even quasiconcave thus global optimization may be difficult however we propose and analyze a stochastic gradient algorithm for the problem and prove that it converges to a stationary point of the expected profit function under mild conditions finally we apply the algorithm to a set of numerical examples and compare the resulting inventory decisions to those of some simpler naive heuristics the examples show that substitution effects can have a significant impact on an assortment s gross profits the examples also illustrate some systematic distortions in inventory decisions if substitution effects are ignored in particular under substitution one should stock relatively more of popular variants and relatively less of unpopular variants than a traditional newsboy analysis indicates

laissez faire in campaign finance in this paper we analyze the impact of campaign contribution limits on government expenditures the theory is based on the proclivity of geographic based legislators to support wealth transfers from the polity at large to finance benefits for local constituents it predicts that laissez faire in contributions will lead to less government spending on budgetary redistribution and to a greater output of laws by the legislature the theory is tested using data on u s state governments

inventory management under price based and stockout based substitution abstract we examine a stochastic inventory and pricing problem for a firm that sells two vertically differentiated products the demands for the two products are determined by total random market size and the customers net utility from buying the two products which is determined by the products quality attributes the individual quality valuation unknown to the firm and the selling prices in case the preferred product is out of stock customers may be willing to buy a substitute instead if their net utility is non negative therefore we analyze an inventory and pricing model considering price based and stockout based substitution we show that the demand function is not continuous in price by decomposing the profit function into different price regimes we are able to derive closed form expressions for the stockout based substitution rates upward and downward substitution and the optimal inventory levels under exogenous pricing under endogenous pricing we find that the profit function is not necessarily unimodal however we show that a unique solution exists for the integrated price and inventory problem under price based substitution only numerical results reveal that not considering stockout based substitution i leads to lower profit margins for high quality products and ii may cause severe supply demand mismatches throughout the entire assortment finally we show the performance of two approximated pricing policies

standard vs custom products variety lead time and price competition in this paper we study the standardization and customization decisions of two firms in a competitive setting along with variety lead time and price decisions we incorporate consumer heterogeneity both in firm preference or store convenience and in product attribute preferences we find that the equilibrium outcome depends on the cost efficiencies of the production technologies as well as the consumer sensitivity to product fit and lead time we develop an index that signifies the relative attractiveness of the standardization and customization strategies and the potential outcomes we identify the strategic roles of product variety and lead time in the competition in contrast to the previous literature we find that increasing the variety will not intensify the price competition if there is sufficient firm differentiation rather it relieves the price pressure for the firm as it satisfies consumer needs better and enables higher price premiums we also analyze the impact of asymmetric variable costs fixed costs and brand reputation on the equilibrium decisions

a classification of the literature on the planning of substitutable products abstract a company s assortment of products and corresponding inventory levels are constrained by available resources such as production capacity storage space and capital to acquire the inventory thus customers may not always be able to find a most preferred product at the time of purchase this unsatisfied demand is often substituted with an alternative in the extant literature there have been an increasing number of studies that consider product substitution when planning product assortment inventory and capacity in conjunction with pricing in this paper we classify the literature on the planning of substitutable products published in the major om and marketing journals during the past thirty years 1974 2013 and present a comprehensive taxonomy of the literature one criterion is adopted to discuss modeling objectives and three major criteria are provided to define the nature of product substitution including substitution mechanism substitution decision maker and direction of substitutability we also identify research gaps to provide guidance for related research in the future

is the negative interest rate policy effective abstract this paper examines the effectiveness of the negative interest rate policy conducted by several central banks to stabilize economic growth and inflation expectations through the signaling channel in doing so we assess survey based expectations data for up to 44 economies from 2002 to 2017 and analyze the impact of the adoption of a negative interest rate policy on expectations made by professionals based on a difference in differences approach our main findings are as follows first we show that the introduction of negative policy rates significantly reduces expectations regarding 3 month money market interest rates and also 10 year government bond yields second we also provide evidence for a significantly positive effect of this unconventional monetary policy tool on gdp growth and inflation expectations this implies that the negative interest rate policy appears to be effective in boosting economic growth and overcoming a deflationary spiral consequently the effect of negative nominal interest rates on real interest rate expectations is also negative

the deposits channel of monetary policy we propose and test a new channel for the transmission of monetary policy we show that when the fed funds rate increases banks widen the interest spreads they charge on deposits and deposits ow out of the banking system we present a model in which imperfect competition among banks gives rise to these relationships an increase in the nominal interest rate increases banks market power inducing them to increase deposit spreads and hence restrict deposit supply households respond to the increase in deposit prices by substituting from deposits into less liquid but higheryielding assets consequently changes in the nominal interest rate aect banks cost of capital and lending using branch level data on the universe of u s banks we show that following an increase in the fed funds rate deposit spreads increase by more and supply falls more in areas with less deposit competition we control for changes in banks lending opportunities by comparing branches of the same bank we control for changes in macroeconomic conditions by showing that deposit spreads widen immediately after a rate change and even if this change is fully anticipated our results imply that monetary policy has a signicant impact on how the nancial system is funded on the quantity of safe and liquid assets it produces and on its provision of loans to the real economy

inventory decisions for substitutable products with stock dependent demand abstract we study a retailer s inventory policy for two products the products are substitutable and have inventory dependent demand so a higher inventory level of a product increases its sales we model the joint effect of demand stimulation and product substitution on inventory decisions by considering a single period stochastic demand setting we provide the first order optimality conditions for the profit maximizing order quantities and interpret them using marginal analysis we also consider two heuristic solutions that separately account for either demand stimulation or product substitution our numerical analysis reveals that the optimal policy by appropriately using sales information that quantifies substitution and demand stimulation can produce significantly higher profits the profit benefits are lessened under certain circumstances such as when the two products have similar critical fractile values suggesting that in such instances the heuristics may be used effectively

optimizing product assortment under customer driven demand substitution abstract the problem of product assortment and inventory planning under customer driven demand substitution is analyzed and a mathematical model for this problem is provided in this paper realistic issues in a retail context such as supplier selection shelf space constraints and poor quality procurement are also taken into account the performance of three modified models one that neglects customers substitution behavior another that excludes supplier selection decision and one that ignores shelf space limitations are analyzed separately with computational experiments the results of the analysis demonstrate that neglecting customer driven substitution or excluding supplier selection or ignoring shelf space limitations may lead to significantly inefficient assortments the effects of demand variability and substitution cost on optimal assortment and supplier selection decisions as well as on the optimal revenue are also investigated the main contribution of this paper is the development of a practical and flexible model to aid retailers in finding optimal assortments to maximize the expected profit

the economics of product variety a survey demand for variety may arise from a taste for diversity in individual consumption and or from diversity in tastes even when each consumer chooses a single variant the full degree of variety potentially demanded will not in general be supplied because scale economies even to a small degree mean that the potential welfare or revenue gain from greater variety must be balanced against the lower unit production costs with fewer variants the economics of product variety consists essentially in analysing the effect of this balance in different situations and comparing the degree of product variety for different market structures with each other and with the optimum the survey commences with the work on market structures with single product firms generalized monopolistic competition tracing modern developments in both the chamberlinian and hotelling traditions the latter has been particularly fruitful due to the expansion of the original locational ideas into virtual spaces in product characteristics the emphasis in recent work on product variety has been on multiproduct firms in both monopolistic and oligopolistic structures including strategic market preemption although most work has been in a full information context there have been advances in product variety under imperfect information either by consumers to properties of the firms products or firms as to consumers demands

negative interest rates policy and banks risk taking empirical evidence abstract using a panel dataset of 9421 banks from 59 countries over the period 2009 2018 and a difference in differences estimator this paper aims to assess the effects of negative interest rates on banks risk taking we find that banks risk taking has been lower in countries where negative rates have been implemented this effect depends on the characteristics of a country s banking system namely the level of capitalization and size

do smes benefit from unconventional monetary policy and how microevidence from the eurozone we study the impact of the announcement of the european central bank s ecb s outright monetary transactions program on small firms access to finance using a matched firm bank data set from eight eurozone countries we find that following the announcement credit access improved relatively more for firms borrowing from banks with high balance sheet exposures to impaired sovereign debt with such firms less likely to be refused a loan or to be price rationed loan terms also improved as manifested by lengthening of loan maturities unconventional monetary policy has a positive impact on firms investment and profitability while its effect on firm innovation is weaker

money and votes a simultaneous equation model this paper has specified and estimated a model of the interaction between money and voting in american politics convincingly establishing the identification of a system of equations can be difficult even when theory provides a guide in the study of money in politics however no theoretical perspective has been established in the literature to make the case for identification as unambiguous as possible this paper has done two things first the specification was based in part on theory which has formally been developed elsewhere and which satisfactorily describes data at the economic interest group level welch 1980 second part of the question of identification revolves around the relationship between party strength and socioeconomic variables because there are questions as to the best measurement of party strength results based on two measures were presented for a number of reasons the presidential vote was the preferred measure this study draws four conclusions first money influenced voting in u s house elections in 1972 although its effect was small second patterns of total contributions to a u s house candidate are consistent with the hypothesis that a majority of dollars come from contributors who prefer to support likely winners third the total contributions made to a candidate are a positive function of the district s median years of schooling completed and the gini coefficient total contributions made to a democratic candidate are also a positive function of the median income finally had house campaigns been financed in the early 1970s even to the point of giving each major party candidate 150 000 in 1978 dollars few elections would have been changed it is also worth mentioning some of the things about the financing of political campaigns that we still do not know the above conclusions involve only elections to the u s house there are good reasons for suspecting that money is more influential in u s senate elections ols statistics support this belief and the greater visibility of those races help justify it although money has little effect on house elections we do not know whether contributions affect legislative voting in the house representatives apparently believe that expenditure influences their reelection chances given the complexity of the process it should be no surprise that this belief conflicts with our findings acting on this belief a representative s vote may very well be influenced by the sources of his contributions either directly or indirectly through the giving of access to contributors finally we should be reminded that the above model is static while the electoral process is dynamic the amount contributed to a candidate is affected by his probability of winning in the previous time period e g week month and in turn affects that probability in the following time period as usual what we know is overshadowed by what we do not know the above questions are both interesting in their own right and of interest to policy making

real interest rates leverage and bank risk taking do low interest rate environments lead to greater bank risk taking we show that when banks can adjust their capital structures reductions in real interest rates lead to greater leverage and higher risk for any downward sloping loan demand function however if the capital structure is fixed the effect depends on the degree of leverage following a decrease in interest rates well capitalized banks increase risk while highly levered banks may decrease it if loan demand is linear or concave further the capitalization cutoff depends on the degree of bank competition this effect therefore should vary across countries and over time

monetary policy surprises and interest rates evidence from the fed funds futures market abstract this paper estimates the impact of monetary policy actions on bill note and bond yields using data from the futures market for federal funds to separate changes in the target funds rate into anticipated and unanticipated components interest rates response to anticipated target rate changes is small while their response to unanticipated changes is large and highly significant these responses are generally consistent with the expectations hypothesis of the term structure surprise target rate changes have little effect on expectations of future actions however which helps to explain the lack of empirical support for the expectations hypothesis at the short end of the yield curve

learning consumer tastes through dynamic assortments how should a firm modify its product assortment over time when learning about consumer tastes in this paper we study dynamic assortment decisions in a horizontally differentiated product category for which consumers diverse tastes can be represented as locations on a hotelling line we presume that the firm knows all possible consumer locations comprising a finite set but does not know their probability distribution we model this problem as a discrete time dynamic program each period the firm chooses an assortment and sets prices to maximize the total expected profit over a finite horizon given its subjective beliefs over consumer tastes the consumers then choose a product from the assortment that maximizes their own utility the firm observes sales which provide censored information on consumer tastes and it updates beliefs in a bayesian fashion there is a recurring trade off between the immediate profits from sales in the current period exploitation and the informational gains to be exploited in all future periods exploration we show that one can partially order assortments based on their information content and that in any given period the optimal assortment cannot be less informative than the myopically optimal assortment this result is akin to the well known stock more result in censored newsvendor problems with the newsvendor learning about demand through sales when lost sales are not observable we demonstrate that it can be optimal for the firm to alternate between exploration and exploitation and even offer assortments that lead to losses in the current period in order to gain information on consumer tastes we also develop a bayesian conjugate model that reduces the state space of the dynamic program and study value of learning using this conjugate model

monetary policy and risk taking abstract we assess the effects of monetary policy on bank risk to verify the existence of a risk taking channel monetary expansions inducing banks to assume more risk we first present var evidence confirming that this channel exists and is particularly significant on the bank funding side then to rationalize this evidence we build a macroeconomic model where banks subject to runs endogenously choose their funding structure deposits vs capital and risk level a monetary expansion increases bank leverage and risk in turn higher bank risk in steady state increases asset price volatility and reduces equilibrium output

life below zero bank lending under negative policy rates we show that negative policy rates affect the supply of bank credit in a novel way banks are reluctant to pass on negative rates to depositors which increases the funding cost of high deposit banks and reduces their net worth relative to low deposit banks as a consequence the introduction of negative policy rates by the european central bank in mid 2014 leads to more risk taking and less lending by euro area banks with a greater reliance on deposit funding our results suggest that negative rates are less accommodative and could pose a risk to financial stability if lending is done by high deposit banks received april 17 2018 editorial decision september 18 2018 by editor philip strahan authors have furnished an internet appendix which is available on the oxford university press web site next to the link to the final published paper online

the impact of product substitution on retail merchandising abstract we analyze the impact of product substitution on two key aspects of retail merchandising order quantities and expected profits to perform this analysis we extend the basic news vendor model to include the possibility that a product with surplus inventory can be used as a substitute for out of stock products this extension requires a definition and an approximation for the resulting effective demand under substitution a service rate heuristic is developed to solve the extended problem the performance of this heuristic is evaluated using an upper bound generated by solving the associated lagrangian dual problem our analysis suggests that this heuristic provides a tractable and accurate method to determine order quantities and expected profits under substitution we apply this heuristic to examine how the level of demand uncertainty and correlation and the degree of substitution between products affect order quantities and expected profits under substitutable demand in addition we use the heuristic to better understand the mechanism by which substitution improves expected profits

on the relationship between inventory costs and variety benefits in retailassortments consider a category of product variants distinguished by some attribute such as color or flavor a retailer must construct an assortment for the category i e select a subset variants to stock and determine purchase quantities for each offered variant we analyze this problem using a multinomial logit model to describe the consumer choice process and a newsboy model to represent the retailer s inventory cost we show that the optimal assortment has a simple structure and provide insights on how various factors affect the optimal level of assortment variety we also develop a formal definition of the level of fashion in a category using the theory of majorization and examine its implications for category profits

competitive positioning in markets with nonuniform preferences we investigate the nature of competitive equilibrium for brands competing in a multi attribute product space when consumer preferences for product attributes follow nonuniform distributions we establish subgame perfect equilibria in a two stage game where firms choose positions in the first stage and prices in the second stage two types of entry scenarios are investigated in the first the number of brands is given exogenously and all of them choose positions simultaneously in the second scenario firms enter in sequence and the early entrants can choose strategies to deter the entry of later entrants we find the equilibria for two three and four brands for consumer preferences that follow a beta distribution nonuniform distributions result in equilibrium configurations that are substantially different from those obtained for uniform consumer distributions in the two brands case for sufficiently concentrated distributions we find asymmetric position equilibria with one firm at the corner of the market and one firm at an interior position in the case of three brands for sufficiently concentrated preferences we find symmetric equilibria that do not yield maximal differentiation we also establish an equilibrium for the case of four competing brands in addition we characterize entry deterring positioning strategies and examine how they vary with the distribution of consumer preferences

loan syndication and credit cycles cyclicality in the supply of business credit has been the focus of a considerable amount of research this cyclicality can stem from shocks to borrowers collateral which affect firms ability to raise capital if agency and information problems are significant ben s bernanke and mark gertler 1989 or it can stem from shocks to bank capital which affect the supply of bank loans if agency and information problems limit the ability of banks to raise additional capital bernanke 1983 both of these channels may have been at work during the financial crisis that started in 2007 ran duchin oguzhan ozbas and berk a sensoy 2010 show that firms with more collateral were better able to withstand the contraction in credit and victoria ivashina and david scharfstein 2010 show that reductions in bank capital had an adverse effect on lending in this paper we examine cyclicality in the supply of credit in the context of modern forms of banking often referred to as the originateto distribute model in particular we are interested in the role of syndicated lending in traditional bank lending the focus of most models of banking banks originate and hold loans on their balance sheets this exposes banks to risk but provides them with strong incentives to screen and monitor borrowers douglas w diamond 1984 over the last 20 years however the development and growth of the syndicated loan market has enabled a bank to originate a loan but retain only a fraction of it on average the originating bank or lead bank retains about a third of each syndicated loan and sells the remaining share to a syndicate of investors which includes banks and institutional investors such as pension funds mutual funds hedge funds and sponsors of structured loan syndication and credit cycles

commonality decisions when designing for multiple markets abstract it is well established that a manufacturer s commonality decisions between related products are driven by trade offs between cost savings from standardization and demand effects of customization prior research has examined these trade offs in the context of product line design for a single geography where cannibalization is a primary concern however the insights from a single market may not readily apply when serving related products for different geographies where cannibalization ceases to be a concern the downside of commonality for geographically separated markets arises from a mismatch in customer preferences which results in disutilities in this paper we model the trade off between the consumer side disutilities and the cost side scale economies in the presence of demand uncertainty and derive the optimal extent of commonality between products for both the markets in the context of two product development strategies i primary market centric design pmd and ii design for multiple markets dfm our insights from analytical and numerical analysis show that when consumers are very picky and market uncertainty is low the dfm strategy outperforms the pmd strategy counter to the practice of introducing primary market centric products into emerging markets our study demonstrates the need for more customization especially in small but uncertain markets our research has important implications for automakers in integrating the diversity in tastes while making commonality decisions for multiple markets

negative monetary policy rates and systemic banks risk taking evidence from the euro area securities register we show that negative monetary policy rates induce systemic banks to reach for yield for identification we exploit the introduction of negative deposit rates by the european central bank in june 2014 and a novel securities register for the 26 largest euro area banking groups banks with more customer deposits are negatively affected by negative rates as they do not pass negative rates to retail customers in turn investing more in securities especially in those yielding higher returns effects are stronger for less capitalized banks private sector financial and nonfinancial securities and dollar denominated securities affected banks also take higher risk in loans

assortment planning and inventory decisions under a locational choice model we consider a single period assortment planning and inventory management problem for a retailer using a locational choice model to represent consumer demand we first determine the optimal variety product location and inventory decisions under static substitution and show that the optimal assortment consists of products equally spaced out such that there is no substitution among them regardless of the distribution of consumer preferences the optimal solution can be such that some customers prefer not to buy any product in the assortment and such that the most popular product is not offered we then obtain bounds on profit when customers dynamically substitute using the static substitution for the lower bound and a retailer controlled substitution for the upper bound we thus define two heuristics to solve the problem under dynamic substitution and numerically evaluate their performance this analysis shows the value of modeling dynamic substitution and identifies conditions in which the static substitution solution serves as a good approximation