deciding between competition and collusion we develop an approach to identify and test for bid rigging in procurement auctions first we introduce a general auction model with asymmetric bidders second we study the problem of identie cation in our model we state a set of conditions that are both necessary and sufe cient for a distribution of bids to be generated by a model with competitive bidding third we discuss how to elicit a prior distribution over a e rm s structural cost parameters from industry experts given this prior distri bution we use bayes s theorem to compare competitive and collusive models of industry equilibrium finally we apply our methodology to a data set of bidding by construction e rms in the midwest the techniques we propose are not computationally demanding use e exible functional forms and can be programmed using most standard statistical packages

empirical implications of equilibrium bidding in first price symmetric common value auctions this paper studies federal auctions for wildcat leases on the outer continental shelf from 1954 to 1970 these are leases where bidders privately acquire at some cost noisy but equally informative signals about the amount of oil and gas that may be present we develop tests of rational and equilibrium bidding in a common values model that are implemented using data on bids and ex post values we also use data on tract location and exposr values to test the comparative static prediction that bidders may bid less aggressively in common value auctions when they expect more competition we find that bidders are aware of the winner s curse and their bidding is largely consistent with equilibrium

reducing the bullwhip effect looking through the appropriate lens demand amplification now frequently referred to as bullwhip is potentially a very costly phenomenon it can lead to stock outs large and expensive capacity utilisation swings lower quality products and considerable production transport on costs as deliveries are ramped up and down at the whim of the supply chain however the detection of bullwhip depends on which lens is used this in turn depends on the background and requirements of various players within the value stream to gain insight into this scenario we exploit a relatively simple replenishment model because new and novel analytic solutions have been derived for all important performance metrics comparison of the competing bullwhip measures is thereby greatly streamlined in the complex real world the likelihood is that supply chains will generate even greater inconsistency between alternative variance shock and filter lens viewpoints

umbrella branding with imperfect observability and moral hazard abstract in a framework of repeated purchase experience goods with seller s moral hazard and imperfect monitoring umbrella branding may improve the terms of the implicit contract between seller and buyers whereby the seller invests in quality and buyers pay a high price in some cases umbrella branding leads to a softer punishment of product failure which increases the seller s value in other cases umbrella branding leads to a harsher punishment of product failure which allows for a reputational equilibrium that would otherwise be impossible on the negative side under umbrella branding one bad signal may kill two revenue streams not one combining costs and benefits i determine the set of parameter values such that umbrella branding is an optimal strategy

subcontracting and the survival of plants in the road construction industry a panel quantile regression analysis this paper investigates how subcontracting parts of contracted work shapes entrants success and survival we find that newly developed quantile regression approaches can be adapted to study survival of firms competing for government contracts in road construction the method is applied on a data set that includes patterns of firm entry exit and auction related information we find an apparent increase in the business life of firms who subcontract out part of their projects in texas these subcontracting effects appear to be more pronounced for firms with few or no options outside the industry and among firms who contract out part of their work to disadvantaged business enterprises

credible spatial preemption it is often argued that incumbent firms may deter entry by preemptive investment in new goods we show that these conclusions are reversed when multiproduct incumbentfirms may exit in response to entry once entrants are in an industry an incumbent will often want to withdraw some goods to prevent competition with the entrant from reducing profits on other goods such a reaction makes entry more attractive to a potential entrant the equilibrium industry structure is less likely to be monopolistic as the goods are better substitutes as exit costs are low and as the competition between producers of the same good is more intense

strategy not tactics drives aggregate planning the aggregate planning model supposedly shows how manufacturers cope with seasonally biased sales unfortunately industry has failed to embrace any of the sophisticated algorithms that were developed to solve the corresponding resources allocation problem this paper reveals why such methods have proven so unattractive aggregate planning is a chimera in practice planners construct the master production schedule directly in line with a preferred production strategy a chase plan is the most popular choice when this option proves infeasible management plumps for another predetermined strategy the resultant stockpiling brings certain financial risks however companies take various measures to reduce their exposure

an empirical analysis of entrant and incumbent bidding in road construction auctions this paper explores differences in the bidding patterns of entrants and incumbents in road construction auctions we find that entrants bid more aggressively and win auctions with significantly lower bids than incumbents the differences in their bidding patterns are consistent with a model of auctions in which the distribution of an entrant s costs exhibits greater dispersion than that of an incumbent s and relations of stochastic dominance in the distributions do not persist for the entire range of estimated costs we also find that more efficient firms bid on average more aggressively and firms with greater backlogs bid less aggressively

the law of small numbers investigating the benefits of restricted auctions for public procurement abstracta commonly accepted view in the academic literature is that dispensing with competition may only be beneficial when tendering complex contracts however restricted auctions are frequently used among eu member states to procure small contracts in this article we investigate this paradox using an original data set of 180 contracts used by a local public buyer of social housing between 2006 and 2009 we show that limiting competition may enable economies to be made on transaction costs while the most efficient bidders still come forward and that abuses such as corruption or favouritism do not result to our knowledge this article is the first to shed light on the advantages of using restricted auctions when tendering small simple contracts

a study of collusion in first price auctions this paper examines the bidding for school milk contracts in florida and texas during the 1980s in both states firms were convicted of bid rigging the data and legal evidence suggest that the cartels in the two states allocate contracts in different ways one cartel divides the market among members while the other cartel also uses side payments to compensate members for refraining from bidding we show that both forms of cartel agreements are almost optimal provided the number of contracts is sufficiently large in the auction the cartel bidder may face competition from non cartel bidders the presence of an optimal cartel induces an asymmetry in the auction the selected cartel bidder is bidding as a representative of a group and has on average a lower cost than a non cartel bidder the data support the predicted equilibrium bidding behaviour in asymmetric auctions in accordance with optimal cartels

on the impact of order volatility in the european automotive sector order volatility is an unfortunate fact of life facing most suppliers of both products and services in this paper we are concerned with establishing the magnitude of the problem faced by the european automotive sector the evidence has been acquired via the site based quick scan audit methodology qsam production scheduler strategy is thereby classified according to a new five set schema as observed via individual value stream volatilities system variables have then been codified and correlated with customer order volatility powerful statistically significant relationships emerge from this evidence this generally but not wholly supports intrinsic views on what constitutes good practice a specific interface between supplier and oem shows the existence of a positive loop that acts as a vicious circle to create unnecessary volatility in material flow

the effect of information on the bidding and survival of entrants in procurement auctions in government procurement auctions of construction contracts entrants are typically less informed and bid more aggressively than incumbent rms this bidding behavior makes them more sus ceptible to losses aecting their prospect of survival in april of 2000 the oklahoma department of transportation started releasing the internal cost estimates to complete highway construction projects using newly developed quantile regression approaches this paper examines the impact of the policy change on aggressive entrants first we nd that the information release eliminates the bidding dierential between entrants and incumbents attributed to informational asymmetries second we argue that the policy change aects the prospects of survival of entrants in the market we nd that those who used to exit the market relatively soon are now staying 37 percent longer while at the median level bidding duration increased by roughly 68 percent the policy has the potential to encourage entry in government procurement auctions and thus increase competition

reducing schedule instability by identifying and omitting complexity adding information flows at the supplier customer interface within the supply chain context schedule instability is caused by revisions to forecast demand from customers problems with scheduled deliveries from suppliers and disruptions to internal production supply chain partners attempt to address schedule instability by regular exchanges of information flows on current demand and delivery forecasts however if these updating information flows are unreliable and likely to be over ridden by subsequent updated schedules then the problem of schedule instability at the supplier customer interface is not being solved the research hypothesis investigated in this paper is whether supply chain partners may reduce schedule instability at the supplier customer interface by identifying and omitting complexity adding information flows to this aim previous work by the authors on an information theoretic methodology for measuring complexity is extended and applied in this paper for identifying complexity adding information flows the application consists of comparing the complexity index of actual exchanged information flows with the complexity index of scenarios that omit one or more of these information flows using empirical results it is shown that supply chain partners may reduce schedule instability at the supplier customer interface by identifying and omitting complexity adding information flows the applied methodology is independent of the information systems used by the supplier and customer and it provides an objective integrative measure of schedule instability at the supplier customer interface two case studies are presented one in the commodity production environment of fast moving consumer goods and another in the customised production environment of electronic products sector by applying the measurement and analysis methodology relevant schedule instability related insights about the specific case studies are obtained in light of the findings from these case studies areas for further research and validation of the conditions in which the proposed research hypothesis holds are also proposed

seasonality aggregation and the testing of the production smoothing hypothesis one of the leading hypotheses concerning the dynamics of production over time is the production smoothing hypothesis given a planning horizon which spans a number of production periods the firm need not produce in each period an amount equal to expected sales rather resorting to inventory accumulation and liquidation the firm may follow a production plan temporally smoother than the path of demand if firms faced with convex cost functions chose to smooth the rate of output in order to minimize costs one would expect to observe that the rate of output would vary less than the rate of sales with variations in inventory stocks absorbing some of the fluctuations in sales recently work on the testing of the production smoothing hypothesis has cast doubt on its empirical validity the evidence presented by alan blinder seems to indicate that the variance of production exceeds that of sales in seven out of eight two digit retail industries 1981 and in eighteen out of twenty two digit manufacturing industries 1983 and 1986 the purpose of this paper then is to examine the validity of such tests when seasonally adjusted aggregated data are used the evidence presented show that the relative size of the variances of the seasonally adjusted production and sales does not provide valid tests of the production smoothing hypothesis in addition aggregating over firms where the seasonal patterns differ may also distort tests of production smoothing blinder realized that the use of seasonally adjusted data may not provide an adequate test of the hypothesis stating had they been available i would have preferred to use data that were not seasonally adjusted since the production smoothing model presumably applies to seasonal fluctuations in sales however such data are not available 1983 fn 19 in this paper i focus on the cement industry because the unadjusted disaggregated data are available for the direct testing of the conjecture that aggregate seasonally adjusted data mask production smoothing phenomenon aggregate monthly data on five other industries will also be examined

dynamic and stochastic behavior of coefficient of demand uncertainty incorporated with eoq variables an application in finished goods inventory from general motors dealerships abstract the objective of this paper is to investigate finished goods inventory in the u s automobile industry using an econometric method known as the variable mean response vmr estimation the research uses the classical economic order quantity eoq model as a starting point different from the usual form of the model here we relax certain assumptions inherent to the eoq and treat demand as uncertain rather than deterministic in this research eight models are developed and applied empirically the results of the proposed models and methodology provide inventory decision makers with different managerial implications and strategic improvements overall the empirical results demonstrate many avenues for considering new inventory policies

the impact of demand and price expectations on the behavior of prices the effects of demand and price expectations on price behavior are analyzed using data from the manufacturing sector and a model formulated to pinpoint the demand oriented factors affecting prices and to incorporate price expectations as a direct influence on price behavior the expected normal demand is seen to have a strong and systemic influence on price behavior the expected normal level of new orders is found to be an adequate measure with sector data in general although some industries require more specification the effects of inventories and unfilled orders on prices are sporadic and across sectors and industries demand oriented forces are concluded to perform as well statistically as cost push determinants expectations concerning the current normal industry price level have a significant and consistent impact on price behavior this supports the idea that firms setting prices take into account their estimates of competitor s prices future price expectations appear to have little effect on current price information 15 references

predicting bid prices by using machine learning methods abstractit is well known that empirical analysis suffers from multicollinearity and high dimensionality in particular this is much more severe in an empirical study of itemized bids in highway pr

price adjustment policies in procurement contracting an analysis of bidding behavior the fluctuations in fuel prices over the past decade led a number of government agencies to introduce price adjustment clauses in procurement contracting those clauses were primarily designed to reduce contractors uncertainty without considering the impact of such initiatives on bidding and the budget we analyze a newly constructed detailed panel of observations on bids for construction contracts and compare bidding behavior across periods and projects and across items within projects estimates from a difference in differences approach indicate that bidding becomes more aggressive and less dispersed after the implementation of this policy the difference is more pronounced when we consider itemized bids than overall project bids alternative techniques of regression discontinuity and nonparametric estimation are applied and yield consistent results

firm entry and exit in the canadian manufacturing sector 1970 1982 this paper measures the importance of entry and exit to the canadian manufacturing sector in the 1970s it focuses on the size of entrants as they move from a stage of infancy to adolescence the exit rates of births their length of life and the growth path of entrants are presented distinctions are made between greenfield and merger entry while entrants are small at birth the cumulative effect of successive cohorts of entrants in the 1970s adds up to a significant fraction of all firms and total sales by 1979

information distortion in a supply chain the bullwhip effect this article originally appeared in management science april 1997 volume 43 number 4 pp 546 558 published by the institute of management sciences consider a series of companies in a supply chain each of whom orders from its immediate upstream member in this setting inbound orders from a downstream member serve as a valuable informational input to upstream production and inventory decisions this paper claims that the information transferred in the form of orders tends to be distorted and can misguide upstream members in their inventory and production decisions in particular the variance of orders may be larger than that of sales and distortion tends to increase as one moves upstream a phenomenon termed bullwhip effect this paper analyzes four sources of the bullwhip effect demand signal processing rationing game order batching and price variations actions that can be taken to mitigate the detrimental impact of this distortion are also discussed

production smoothing in the japanese vehicle industry abstract physical data from the japanese vehicle industry covering monthly observations from 1985 1 to 1994 12 are investigated across nine goods ranging from bicycles to large buses smaller variance of production is found relative to sales across all goods for unadjusted data and in 17 out of 18 cases for seasonally adjusted data such evidence in favor of the production smoothing model psm is confirmed by full information maximum likelihood employed jointly on inventories and sales equations the estimates suggest the industry operates in the range of increasing marginal costs in six out of nine goods positive costs of being away from targeted inventory are also present in six out of these nine goods which make the psm a good description of this industry

comparative statics in first price auctions abstract two bidders take part in a first price auction we show that if a bidder s valuation distribution increases stochastically so will his bid distribution for every possible valuation his opponent will bid higher and the change is beneficial to the auctioneer we generalize our results to the asymmetric setting with n bidders and no more than two different valuation distributions journal of economic literature classification number d44

moral hazard as an entry barrier in an experience goods industry an entrant who could make positive profits by providing a better deal to buyers than do incumbents may cheat buyers by providing goods of low quality to make even greater profits if buyers foresee this possibility they will be unwilling to buy from an entrant as a result moral hazard in a seller s choice of the quality of an experience good can lead to a barrier to entry in particular since hit and run entry is likely to lead to low quality choice the threat of such entry may not discipline the pricing of incumbents we also show that the temptation to dishonest entry the moral hazard problem is stronger if buyers are already receiving some consumer surplus as a result there is a first entrant advantage because the first entrant faces less temptation to provide inefficiently low quality than do subsequent entrants and with rational buyers this works to his advantage the scale of entry may affect quality incentives and therefore introductory offers may assure buyers of an entrant s quality but this cannot happen under a suitable definition of constant returns

capacity restrictions and supply chain performance modelling and analysing load dependent lead times abstract several studies have reported that capacitated supply chains may benefit from an improved dynamic performance as compared to unconstrained ones this occurs as a consequence of the capacity limit acting as a production smoothing filter in this research the relationship between capacity restrictions and the operational performance of supply chains is investigated from a novel perspective i e we assume that the influence of capacity constraints on lead times depends on the supply chain s responsiveness under these circumstances the experiments show that there is a negative effect of capacity constraints on supply chain performance both in terms of process efficiency internal and customer satisfaction external nonetheless the magnitude of this impact greatly depends on the responsiveness of the firm market conditions and adopted policies for inventory management more specifically the combination of tight capacity restrictions and low responsiveness significantly contributes to decrease supply chain performance which may be very damaging for the dynamic behavior of the system in this sense efficient capacity planning proves to be essential to prevent the supply chain from entering into a vicious circle

transfer function analysis of forecasting induced bullwhip in supply chains the present paper analyses the bullwhip problem generated by exponential smoothing algorithms in both stand alone passing on orders mode and within inventory controlled feedback systems results are predicted from transfer function analysis and then confirmed by simulation via the bullwhip explorer supply chain software a novel feature of the paper is the introduction of the matched filter concept into the exponential smoothing algorithm this adjusts the value of the smoothing constant depending on whether the constant linear or quadratic forecasting model is used it is shown that matching the filter via noise bandwidth equalises the output variance when the demand is a random signal hence some of the unwanted effects of using the linear and quadratic forecasting models are attenuated however there is little benefit obtained by using sophisticated forecasting methods within inventory controlled feedback systems as their tracking ability is reduced

equilibrium in sealed high bid auctions there is a voluminous theoretical literature on sealed high bid auctions auctions in which bids are sealed and the high bidder pays his bid see for example vickrey 1961 myerson 1981 riley and samuelson 1981 milgrom and weber 1982 matthews 1983 maskin and riley 1984 holt 1980 cox smith and walker 1988 a critical property on which this literature relies is the existence of equilibrium in which buyers bidding strategies are monotonic in their types this enables the analyst to perform comparative statics as the distribution of types changes and to compare the welfare properties of the high bid auction with those of other auction institutions one case in which the existence of monotonic equilibrium is readily established is that in which buyers types are distributed smoothly independently and symmetrically in this case there exists a symmetric equilibrium one in which all bidders share the same bidding behaviour as a function of their valuations and this bid function is the solution to a first order differential equation

asymmetry in first price auctions with affiliated private values collusion and heterogeneity across firms may introduce asymmetry in bidding games a major difficulty in asymmetric auctions is that the bayesian nash equilibrium strategies are solutions of an intractable system of differential equations we propose a simple method for estimating asymmetric first price auctions with affiliated private values considering two types of bidders we show that these differential equations can be rewritten using the observed bid distribution we establish the identification of the model characterize its theoretical restrictions and propose a two step non parametric estimation procedure for estimating the private value distributions an empirical analysis of joint bidding in ocs auctions is provided copyright 2003 john wiley sons ltd

the extension and exploitation of the inventory and order based production control system archetype from 1982 to 2015 in 1994 through classic control theory john naim and towill developed the automatic pipeline inventory and order based production control system apiobpcs which extended the original iobpcs archetype developed by towill in 1982 well recognised as a base framework for a production planning and control system due to the prevalence of the two original models in the last three decades in the academic and industrial communities this paper aims to systematically review how the iobpcs archetypes have been adopted exploited and adapted to study the dynamics of individual production planning and control systems and whole supply chains using various databases such as scopus web of science google scholar 111 papers we found that the iobpcs archetypes have been studied regarding the a modification of four inherent policies related to forecasting inventory lead time and pipeline to create a family of models b adoption of the iobpcs family to reduce supply chain dynamics and in particular bullwhip c extension of the iobpcs family to represent different supply chain scenarios such as order book based production control and closed loop processes simulation is the most popular method adopted by researchers and the number of works based on discrete time based methods is greater than those utilising continuous time approaches most studies are conceptual with limited practical applications described future research needs to focus on cost flexibility and sustainability in the context of supply chain dynamics and although there are a few existing studies more analytical approaches are required to gain robust insights into the influence of nonlinear elements on supply chain behaviour also empirical exploitation of the existing models is recommended

demand fluctuation and chaotic behaviour by interaction between customers and suppliers this paper presents an investigation on simulation of interaction between customers and suppliers in a three tier supply chain system in the simulation customers respond to the price discount offer made by the supplier and the supplier makes adjusts the price according to stock held the simulation shows that the behaviour of such interaction exhibits deterministic chaos it is found that the attractors of the model move with the environment and the initial states thus the bifurcating points in such a system are unable to provide a guideline in system design to avoid chaos

overtime vs regular shift planning decisions in packing shops abstract consideration is given to a planning problem arising at the packaging stage of production in several industries i e the packing shop this termed economic manpower shift planning with overtime emsp o seeks the manpower and overtime to be planned at each available workday shift so that production targets are met within a given time horizon at minimum cost starting with a practical planning dilemma on the use of overtime we explore the optimal planning policy together with the performance of two practical policies an ilp model of emsp o is developed and used for determining the optimal policy since the problem is shown to be np hard optimal policies were found using a commercial ilp optimiser the optimal setting of the practical policies was obtained by existing heuristics the results show that effective use of overtime leads to workforce reductions and improved utilisation in many cases an all or nothing property relates overtime and workforce utilisation at optimum finally it is shown that when indiscriminately used practical planning policies may have serious cost consequences

credible spatial preemption through reputation extension abstract judd 1985 rand journal of economics 16 153 166 shows that the results of previous models of brand proliferation and spatial preemption are substantially weakened if the incumbent does not have high exit costs this paper illustrates how an incumbent firm can make spatial preemption credible by extending reputation this is the case with product extensions which are new products but are linked to the successful reputation of another product already on the market it is proved that a product extension can make spatial entry preemption credible because its withdrawal in response to a competitor s new brand can have a negative reputational effect on the incumbent s original product

on bullwhip in supply chains historical review present practice and expected future impact abstract demand amplification or bullwhip as it is now called is not a new phenomenon since evidence of its existence has been recorded at least as far back as the start of the 20th century and is well known to economists yet industry worldwide still has to cope with bullwhip measured not just in terms of the 2 1 amplification which is frequently quoted but sometimes it is as high as 20 1 from end to end in the supply chain this can be very costly in terms of capacity on costs and stock out costs on the upswing and stockholding and obsolescence costs on the downswing in this paper we have identified 10 published causes of bullwhip all of which are capable of elimination by re engineering the supply chain we offer evidence on the present health of a family of supply chains and pinpoint much good practice this is in anticipation that such excellence will become normative in the near future as the learning experience gathers momentum and provided that human factors are properly addressed

first price auctions in the asymmetric n bidder case i consider the first price auction when the bidders valuations may be differently distributed i show that every bayesian equilibrium is an essentially pure equilibrium formed by bid functions whose inverses are solutions of a system of differential equations with boundary conditions i then prove the existence of an equilibrium i prove its uniqueness when the valuation distributions have a mass point at the lower extremity of the support i give sufficient conditions for uniqueness when every valuation distribution is one of two atomless distributions i establish inequalities between equilibrium strategies when relations of stochastic dominance exist between valuation distributions

umbrella branding as a signal of new product quality an example of signalling by posting a bond i present a signalling model in which a multiproduct firm can use its reputation as a bond for quality by using a brand name for an established product when it introduces a new experience good as out of equilibrium beliefs are specified a false signal may be taken to imply that both the established and the new product are of low quality in contrast the absence of a signal leaves open the possibility that one of the two products is of high quality hence the signal can be credible without excessive sunk costs as long as the bond posted is sufficiently large

the impact of public information on bidding in highway procurement auctions a number of papers in the theoretical auction literature show that the release of information regarding the seller s valuation of an item can cause bidders to bid more aggressively this widely accepted result in auction theory remains largely untested in the empirical literature recent theoretical work has also shown that this effect can be more pronounced in auctions with larger common cost uncertainty we examine the impact of a policy change by the oklahoma department of transportation that led to the release of the state s internal estimate of the costs to complete highway construction projects we perform a differences in differences analysis comparing bidding in texas a state that had a uniform policy of revealing the same information all throughout the period of analysis to bidding in oklahoma our results show that in comparison to texas auctions the average bid in oklahoma fell after the change in engineers cost estimate ece policy this decline in bids was even larger for projects where the common uncertainty in costs is greater moreover the within auction standard deviation of bids fell after the change in ece policy with the most significant decline observed again in projects with greater common cost uncertainty

the effect of replenishment policies on the bullwhip effect a transfer function approach an important phenomenon in supply chain management known as the bullwhip effect suggests that demand variability increases as one moves up a supply chain this paper examines the influence of different replenishment policies on the occurrence of the bullwhip effect the paper demonstrates that certain replenishment policies can in themselves be inducers of the bullwhip effect while others inherently lower demand variability the main causes of increase in variability are projections of future demand expectations which result in over exaggerated responses to changes in demand we suggest that through appropriate selection and use of certain replenishment rules the bullwhip effect can be avoided subsequently allowing supply chain management costs to be lowered

are bid preferences benign the effect of small business subsidies in highway procurement auctions abstract bid preferences in procurement auctions allow firms from an identifiable group an advantage in bidding against unfavored firms while economic efficiency is expected to fall as a result of bid preferences government procurement costs may either increase or decrease depending on the competitive response of favored and unfavored firms this paper uses data from california auctions for road construction contracts where small businesses receive a 5 percent bid preference in auctions for projects using only state funds and no preferential treatment on projects using federal aid i show that while firms bidding behavior matches theoretical predictions procurement costs are 3 8 percent higher on auctions using preferences the higher procurement cost in preference auctions is attributed to reduced participation by lower cost large firms structural estimates of latent firm costs are then used to evaluate how efficiency and the division of surplus between firms and the government are impacted by bid preferences firm profits are 3 1 percent lower under bid preferences however this is overwhelmed by the efficiency loss due to reduced large firm participation the efficiency loss conditional on firm participation is estimated to represent around 0 1 percent of overall procurement costs including the adverse effect of preferences on the participation of large firms increases the estimated efficiency loss to 3 6 percent which represents 27 cents for each additional dollar awarded to small businesses through the program counterfactual simulations indicate that if participation were instead inelastic to bid preferences the 5 percent bid preference would be close to the optimal level

a pragmatic approach to the design of bullwhip controllers it is well known that forecasting mechanisms can greatly increase bullwhip demand variance amplification of orders as processed by both human and algorithmic decision makers this paper is concerned with the application of the well established apiobpcs decision support system a variant of the order up to rule in such circumstances it has two feedback controls based on the inventory and the orders in pipeline respectively with gains set equal according to the deziel eilon rule there is one feed forward control based on exponential forecasting although this is not a restriction on the application of this system we consider the pragmatic role of apiobpcs in the situation where the echelon decision maker may be handling a wide range of sku s in a non altruistic environment where upmarket information may either be withheld or simply unavailable under such circumstances it has been established via site based studies that the decision makers output the orders reflect a wide range of strategies or maybe ignorance three strategies may be regarded as appropriate i e pass orders along demand smoothing and level scheduling depending on context apiobpcs can be adapted to each of these modus operandi in the first case with the added capability of smoothing the sharp edges with a modicum of inventory variation and in the last case with the advantage of built in trend detection players in non altruistic supply chains must be able to cope with added uncertainties due to lead time variations we show that apiobpcs may be well matched to such situations and is hence copable as well as capable the paper includes recommended parameter settings according to desired decision making policies

divisionalization and entry deterrence this paper assumes that incumbent firms can create new independent divisions more cheaply than potential entrants who must incur the additional overhead costs of new entry the main theoretical result is that such divisionalization ability leads perfectly informed incumbents to preempt all rational entry into their industries in contrast existing models of entry deterrence imply that informed incumbents even those with steadily decreasing average costs will often allow rational entry our result may explain why successful large scale entry by firms with no informational advantage is extremely rare the use of divisions to preempt entry may also explain why large firms in high profit oligopolies often divisionalize allowing their divisions to compete freely despite the negative pecuniary externality that each division imposes on others

price adjustment policies and firm size i introduction by the fall of 2009 several state departments of transportation in the united states adopted price adjustment policies to mitigate significant fluctuations in the cost of oil based inputs in government procurement price escalation in oil based materials such as asphalt binder or fuel was the main cause behind the trend firms increased bids to offset higher input prices adversely affecting procurement costs damnjanovic et al 2008 because inputs like asphalt experienced significant cost increases e g the price of alphalt increased by 31 in 2005 alone it is not surprising that contractors in general and small firms in particular struggled with construction budgets in response to the growing uncertainty many states introduced price adjustment policies for related inputs effectively dampening losses and profits at times of unanticipated cost fluctuations 1 while the latter part of last decade saw notable oil price price deviates beyond a certain range of the baseline index increases in the recent months firms enjoyed cost savings a percentage of which can be passed on to departments of transportation with the establishment of this policy going beyond industries directly impacted by uncertainty in oil prices the provisions investigated in this paper are common in defense contracting and were added to the health care law in what came to be known as risk corridors 2 as an example the department of defense has embedded such provisions in fixed price contracts with economic price adjustment fpepa these measures are designed to limit contractors exposure to economic uncertainty and market volatility prevalent in long term fixed price arrangements 3 in the same spirit the regional greenhouse gas initiative an emission permit trading program involving nine northeastern states in the united states held down price escalations by placing a price collar on allowances that limits variability we investigate the effect of the price adjustment policy on firm bidding behavior and competition intensity in road construction in oklahoma which can offer insights on the effectiveness of implementing such policies across industries we use data on public construction auctions to study the effect of this policy on firms of different sizes where size heterogeneity is a defining characteristic of the market cho 1986 the construction industry displays market concentration featuring a small number of strong contenders from the pool of over 150 participants in our sample the 11 firms that won most frequently were awarded over a quarter of auctioned projects and more than 38 of contracted value compared with the manufacturing sector surveyed in audretsch and mahmood 1995 a notably higher percentage of new construction companies end up failing many undersized and startup builders compete on the margin and have a low chance of making it to the list of long term players the literature has identified a strong correlation between firm size and financial solvency in association with firm survival and growth see brito and mello 1995 and hubbard 1998 in what follows we frame our empirical analysis with a theoretical model highlighting this connection as noted by gertler and gilchrist 1994 and martinelli 1997 there are asymmetric changes in firms borrowing costs when financial constraints are tightening in the face of uncertainty and they depend on the level of capital accumulation as a result high volatility in input prices is likely to reinforce the imbalance among competitors of different sizes 4 price adjustment policies help to level the playing field between small and large firms without invoking differential treatment toward a group finally there has been considerable interest in the literature in various policies that departments of transportation around the country use to help small businesses such as bid preference policies and setasides see for instance the work of denes 1997 marion 2009 krasnokutskaya and seim 2011 and athey coey and levin 2013

measuring and avoiding the bullwhip effect a control theoretic approach an important contributory factor to the bullwhip effect i e the variance amplification of order quantities observed in supply chains is the replenishment rule used by supply chain members first the bullwhip effect induced by the use of different forecasting methods in order up to replenishment policies is analysed variance amplification is quantified and we prove that the bullwhip effect is guaranteed in the order up to model irrespective of the forecasting method used thus when production is inflexible and significant costs are incurred by frequently switching production quantities up and down order up to policies may no longer be desirable or even achievable in the second part of the paper a general decision rule is introduced that avoids variance amplification and succeeds in generating smooth ordering patterns even when demand has to be forecasted the methodology is based on control systems engineering and allows important insights to be gained about the dynamic behaviour of replenishment rules