evolving choice inconsistencies in choice of prescription drug insurance we study choice over prescription insurance plans by the elderly using government administrative data to evaluate how these choices evolve over time we find large foregone savings from not choosing the lowest cost plan that has grown over time we develop a structural framework to decompose the changes in foregone welfare from inconsistent choices into choice set changes and choice function changes from a fixed choice set we find that foregone welfare increases over time due primarily to changes in plan characteristics such as premiums and out of pocket costs we estimate little learning at either the individual or cohort level

gold and silver health plans accommodating demand heterogeneity in managed competition abstract new regulation of health insurance markets creates multiple levels of health plans with designations like gold and silver the underlying rationale for the heavy metal approach to insurance regulation is that heterogeneity in demand for health care is not only due to health status sick demand more than the healthy but also to other taste related factors rich demand more than the poor this paper models managed competition with demand heterogeneity to consider plan payment and enrollee premium policies in relation to efficiency net consumer benefit and fairness the european concept of solidarity specifically this paper studies how to implement a silver and gold health plan efficiently and fairly in a managed competition context we show that there are sharp tradeoffs between efficiency and fairness when health plans cannot or may not because of regulation base premiums on any factors affecting demand enrollees do not choose the efficient plan when taste e g income can be used as a basis of payment a simple tax can achieve both efficiency and fairness when only health status and not taste can be used as a basis of payment health status based taxes and subsidies are required and efficiency can only be achieved with a modified version of fairness we refer to as weak solidarity an overriding conclusion is that the regulation of premiums for both the basic and the higher level plans is necessary for efficiency

innovation complementarity and environmental productivity effects reality or delusion evidence from the eu abstract innovation is a key element behind the achievement of desired environmental and economic performances regarding co2 mitigation strategies would require cuts in emissions of around 80 90 with respect to 1990 by 2050 in the eu we investigate whether complementarity namely integration between the adoption of environmental innovation measures and other technological and organizational innovations is a factor that has supported reduction in co2 emissions per value added that is environmental productivity we merge new eu innovation and wiod data to assess the innovation effects on sector co2 performances at a wide eu level we find that jointly adopting different innovations is not a widespread factor behind increases in environmental productivity nevertheless even though complementarity is not a low hanging fruit a case where innovation complementarity arises is for manufacturing sectors that integrate eco innovations with product innovations one example of this integrated action is a strategy that pursues energy efficiency with product value enhancement we believe that the lack of integrated innovation adoption behind environmental productivity performance is a signal of the current weaknesses economies face in tackling climate change and green economy challenges incremental rather than more radical strategies have predominated so far the latter have been confined to industrial niches in terms of the number of involved firms this is probably insufficient when we look at long term economic and environmental goals

the effect of industrial agglomeration on green development efficiency in northeast china since the revitalization abstract using panel data from 2003 to 2016 this paper estimates the green development efficiency of 34 cities in northeast china based on the sbm dea model and determines whether industrial agglomeration promotes or impedes green development efficiency the results show the following 1 the average green development efficiency of northeast china exhibits a fluctuant upward trend in 2003 2016 and there are significant spatial differences 2 during the revitalization period industrial agglomeration hinders green development efficiency a u shaped relationship exists between industrial agglomeration and green development 3 economic development level and foreign direct investment are positively related to green development efficiency while industrial structure energy consumption structure and environmental regulation are negatively related economic development level has the greatest positive influence and environmental regulation the strongest negative influence on green development several corresponding policy implications are proposed for promoting green development and revitalization

pricing and welfare in health plan choice premiums in health insurance markets frequently do not reflect individual differences in costs either because consumers have private information or because prices are not risk rated this creates inefficiencies when consumers self select into plans we develop a simple econometric model to study this problem and estimate it using data on small employers we find a welfare loss of 2 11 percent of coverage costs compared to what is feasible with risk rating only about one quarter of this is due to inefficiently chosen uniform contribution levels we also investigate the reclassification risk created by risk rating individual incremental premiums finding only a modest welfare cost

towards a green economy through innovations the role of trade union involvement abstract in this paper we address the overlooked issue of whether and how industrial relations might play a role in the process of greening the economy primarily through the levers of innovation adoption and organisational change we address our objective econometrically assessing the quality of industrial relations as a driver of environmental innovation adoption through the use of micro data on manufacturing firms the results yield two interesting main findings being a unionised firm is not associated with the adoption of environmental innovation however when we consider the industrial relations climate we observe a positive relationship between a cooperative industrial relations climate union involvement and the propensity to introduce environmental innovation two models are relevant a managerially oriented model unions are informed and a participatory model unions bargain on innovation adoption the contents of environmental innovations are also important union involvement is more relevant for adopting more complex and radical innovations to abate co2 and ems and iso practices

comparison friction experimental evidence from medicare drug plans consumers need information to compare alternatives for markets to function efficiently recognizing this public policies often pair competition with easy access to comparative information the implicit assumption is that comparison friction the wedge between the availability of comparative information and consumers use of it is inconsequential because information is readily available and consumers will access this information and make effective choices we examine the extent of comparison friction in the market for medicare part d prescription drug plans in the united states in a randomized field experiment an intervention group received a letter with personalized cost information that information was readily available for free and widely advertised however this additional step providing the information rather than having consumers actively access it had an impact plan switching was 28 percent in the intervention group versus 17 percent in the comparison group and the intervention caused an average decline in predicted consumer cost of about 100 per year among letter recipients roughly 5 percent of the cost in the comparison group our results suggest that comparison friction can be large even when the cost of acquiring information is small and may be relevant for a wide range of public policies that incorporate consumer choice

asset prices and trading volume in a beauty contest speculators buy an asset hoping to sell it later to investors with higher private valuations if agents are uncertain about the distribution of private valuations and about the beliefs of others about this distribution a beauty contest with an infinite hierarchy of beliefs arises under harsanyi s assumption of a common prior the infinite beliefs hierarchy is readily solved using bayes law this paper shows that common knowledge of the beliefs formation rule mapping the private valuation of each agent into his first order belief also simplifies the beliefs hierarchy while allowing for disagreement among agents we analyse the resulting speculation in a stylized asset market several statistics computed only from readily observable quote return and volume data are evaluated in terms of their power to discriminate between genuine disagreement and the harsanyian case only statistics that relate volume and volatility or volume and changes in best offers have the necessary discriminatory power

what triggers environmental management and innovation empirical evidence for germany abstract it is frequently hypothesized that environmental management systems emss may improve firms environmental innovation performance whether this hypothesis is true is as critical for environmental policy as questions pertaining to the relevant incentives for 1 a firm s voluntary adoption of an ems and 2 its environmental innovation behavior based on ample empirical evidence for german manufacturing this paper addresses the simultaneity of these issues on the basis of a recursive bivariate probit model that explores the hypothesis that a facility s decision on innovation activities is correlated with the decision on ems adoption our empirical results indicating that environmental innovation activities are not associated with ems implementation nor any other single policy instrument reflect the perceptions of the survey respondents and hence should be interpreted as correlations rather than causal relationships according to these perceptions innovation behavior seems to be mainly correlated with the stringency of environmental policy

sinking swimming or learning to swim in medicare part d under medicare part d senior citizens choose prescription drug insurance offered by numerous private insurers we examine nonpoor enrollees actions in 2006 and 2007 using panel data our sample reduced overspending by 298 on average with gains by 81 percent of them the greatest improvements were by those who overspent most in 2006 and by those who switched plans decisions to switch depended on individuals overspending in 2006 and on individualspecific effects of changes in their current plans the oldest consumers and those initiating medications for alzheimer s disease improved by more than average suggesting that real world institutions help overcome cognitive limitations

designed to fail the medicare auction for durable medical equipment we examine the theoretical properties of the auction for medicare durable medical equipment two unique features of the medicare auction are 1 winners are paid the median winning bid and 2 bids are nonbinding we show that median pricing results in allocation inefficiencies as some high cost firms potentially displace low cost firms as winners further the auction may leave demand unfulfilled as some winners refuse to supply because the price is set below their cost we also introduce a model of nonbinding bids that establishes the rationality of a lowball bid strategy employed by many bidders in the actual medicare auctions and recently replicated in caltech experiments we contrast the median price auction with the standard clearing price auction where each firm bids true costs as a dominant strategy resulting in competitive equilibrium prices and full efficiency jel d44 i11 h57

the medium term impact of medicare part d on pharmaceutical prices medicare part d began coverage of prescription drugs in 2006 using data from the first year of the program we found that part d reduced pharmaceutical prices for medicare recipients with these effects driven by enrollees previously without drug coverage in this paper we extend our analysis through 2009 the fourth year of the program to investigate whether plans continued to extract price concessions in return for favorable formulary placement or if consumer inertia or other factors caused prices to bounce back after their initial decline we find price declines persisted through at least the third year of the program

environmental efficiency and labour productivity trade off or joint dynamics a theoretical investigation and empirical evidence from italy using namea in this paper we test an adapted ekc hypothesis to verify the relationship between environmental efficiency namely emissions per unit of value added and labour productivity value added per employee we exploit namea data on italy for 29 sector branches and 6 categories of air emissions for the period 1991 2001 we employ data on capital stock and trade openness to test the robustness of our results on the basis of the theoretical and empirical analyses focusing on innovation firm performances and environmental externalities we would expect a positive correlation between environmental efficiency and labour productivity a negative correlation between the emissions intensity of value added and labour productivity which departs from the conventional mainstream view the hypothesis tested is a critical one within the longstanding debate on the potential trade off or complementarity between environmental preservation and economic performance which is strictly associated with the role of technological innovation we find that for most air emission categories there is a positive relationship between labour productivity and environmental efficiency labour productivity dynamics then seem to be complementary to a decreasing emissions intensity in the production process taking a disaggregate sector perspective we show that the macro aggregate evidence is driven by sector dynamics in a non homogenous way across pollutants services tend always to show a complementary relationship while industry seems to be associated with inverted u shape dynamics for greenhouse gases and nitrogen oxides this is in line with our expectations in any case ekc shapes appear to drive such productivity links towards complementarity the extent to which this evidence derives from endogenous market forces industrial and structural change and policy effects is discussed by taking an evolutionary perspective to innovation and by referring to impure public goods arguments

the innovation effects of environmental policy instruments a typical case of the blind men and the elephant abstract in this paper we examine the innovation effects of environmental policy instruments in four literatures theoretical models on incentives for eco innovation econometric studies based on observed data survey analysis based on stated information and technology case studies the aim of this paper is to critically examine the methods and the results we argue that the case studies literature even when its results are specific and difficult to generalise is a necessary source of empirical evidence about policy impacts and the factors responsible for these impacts pointing to issues that are neglected in the theoretical and econometric literature such as the specifics of the innovation context and policy interaction effects the paper states five synthesised findings and makes a plea for multi method analysis one other important synthesised finding is that the influence of market based instruments on innovation such as emission trading and taxes is far weaker than assumed

paying a premium on your premium consolidation in the us health insurance industry we examine whether and to what extent consolidation in the u s health insurance industry is leading to higher employer sponsored insurance premiums we make use of a proprietary panel dataset of employer sponsored healthplans enrolling over 10 million americans annually between 1998 and 2006 to explore the relationship between premium growth and changes in market concentration we exploit the differential impact of a large national merger of two insurance firms across local markets to estimate the causal effect of concentration on market level premiums we estimate real premiums increased by approximately 7 percentage points in a typical market due to the rise in concentration during our study period we also find evidence that consolidation facilitates the exercise of monopsonistic power vis a vis physicians whose absolute employment and relative earnings decline in its wake

do unions affect innovation we examine the effect of unionization on firm innovation using a regression discontinuity design that relies on locally exogenous variation generated by elections that pass or fail by a small margin of votes passing a union election results in an 8 7 12 5 decline in patent quantity quality three years after the election a reduction in r d expenditures reduced productivity of inventors and departures of innovative inventors appear to be plausible underlying mechanisms through which unionization impedes firm innovation in response to unionization firms move their innovation activities away from states where union elections win our paper provides new insights into the real effects of unionization this paper was accepted by gustavo manso finance

the cms auction experimental studies of a median bid procurement auction with nonbinding bids we report on the experimental results of simple auctions with i a median bid pricing rule and ii non binding bids winning bids can be withdrawn the two central pillars of the competitive bidding program designed by the centers for medicare medicaid services cms comparisons between the performance of the cms auction and the performance of the excluded bid auction reveal the problematic nature of the cms auction the cms auction fails to generate competitive prices of goods and fails to satisfy demand in all proposed efficiency measures we find the excluded bid auction significantly outperforms the cms auction

redefining innovation eco innovation research and the contribution from ecological economics while innovation processes toward sustainable development eco innovations have received increasing attention during the past years theoretical and methodological approaches to analyze these processes are poorly developed against this background the term eco innovation is introduced in this paper addressing explicitly three kinds of changes towards sustainable development technological social and institutional innovation secondly the potential contribution of neoclassical and co evolutionary approaches from environmental and innovation economics to eco innovation research is discussed three peculiarities of eco innovation are identified the double externality problem the regulatory push pull effect and the increasing importance of social and institutional innovation while the first two are widely ignored in innovation economics the third is at the least not elaborated appropriately the consideration of these peculiarities may help to overcome market failure by establishing a specific eco innovation policy and to avoid a technology bias through a broader understanding of innovation finally perspectives for a specific contribution of ecological economics to eco innovation research are drawn it is argued that methodological pluralism as established in ecological economics would be very beneficial for eco innovation research a theoretical framework integrating elements from both neoclassical and evolutionary approaches should be pursued in order to consider the complexity of factors influencing innovation decisions as well as the specific role of regulatory instruments and the experience gathered in ecological economics integrating ecological social and economic aspects of sustainable development is highly useful for opening up innovation research to social and institutional changes 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

climate treaties and breakthrough technologies an effective climate change treaty must promote the joint supply of two global public goods climate change mitigation and knowledge of new technologies that can lower mitigation costs r d is especially needed to bring about substantial long term reductions in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases for this will require the development and diffusion of revolutionary breakthrough technologies martin i hoffert et al 2002 in principle such an outcome could be realized by the kyoto protocol approach if that agreement were strengthened over time however that response may be inadequate kyoto makes no provision for r d and as i shall demonstrate unlikely to succeed can a treaty system relying directly on targeted r d and the adoption of breakthrough technologies perform better in this same setting of anarchic international relations i will show that as a general rule the answer is no essentially the same forces that undermine kyoto also challenge the r d and technology approach there is one exception to this rule r d leading to breakthrough technologies exhibiting increasing returns can improve dramatically on the kyoto approach even when these technologies are otherwise inferior to the alternatives available this suggests that our approach to treaty design should be strategic

a model of competitive stock trading volume a model of competitive stock trading is developed in which investors are heterogeneous in their information and private investment opportunities and rationally trade for both informational and noninformational motives i examine the link between the nature of heterogeneity among investors and the behavior of trading volume and its relation to price dynamics it is found that volume is positively correlated with absolute changes in prices and dividends i show that informational trading and noninformational trading lead to different dynamic relations between trading volume and stock returns

beauty contests and iterated expectations in asset markets in a financial market where traders are risk averse and short lived and prices are noisy asset prices today depend on the average expectation today of tomorrow s price thus iterating this relationship the date 1 price equals the date 1 average expectation of the date 2 average expectation of the date 3 price this will not in general equal the date 1 average expectation of the date 3 price we show how this failure of the law of iterated expectations for average belief can help understand the role of higher order beliefs in a fully rational asset pricing model and explain over reaction to noisy public information

the distortionary effects of government procurement evidence from medicaid prescription drug purchasing in 2003 the federal state medicaid program provided prescription drug coverage to more than 50 million people to determine the price that it will pay for each drug medicaid uses the average private sector price when medicaid is a large part of the demand for a drug this creates an incentive for its maker to increase prices for other health care consumers using drug utilization and expenditure data for the top 200 drugs in 1997 and in 2002 we investigate the relationship between the medicaid market share mms and the average price of a prescription our estimates imply that a 10 percentage point increase in the mms is associated with a 7 to 10 percent increase in the average price of a prescription in addition the medicaid rules increase a firm s incentive to introduce new versions of a drug in order to raise price we find empirical evidence that firms producing newer drugs with larger sales to medicaid are more likely to introduce new versions taken together our findings suggest that government procurement rules can alter equilibrium price and product proliferation in the private sector

choice inconsistencies among the elderly evidence from plan choice in the medicare part d program we evaluate the choices of elders across their insurance options under the medicare part d prescription drug plan using a unique data set of prescription drug claims matched to information on the characteristics of choice sets we document that elders place much more weight on plan premiums than on expected out of pocket costs value plan financial characteristics beyond any impacts on their own financial expenses or risk and place almost no value on variance reducing aspects of plans partial equilibrium welfare analysis implies that welfare would have been 27 higher if patients had all chosen rationally

the effect of medicare part d on pharmaceutical prices and utilization prescription drug expenditures represent the most rapidly growing component of health care spending increasing from 5 percent of health care spending in 1980 to more than 10 percent by 2005 centers for medicare and medicaid services cms 2007a further almost 60 percent of all prescriptions in the united states are filled for beneficiaries of medicare medicaid and other government programs rapid innovation in new pharmaceuticals has contributed substantially to quality of life and longevity in the us frank lichtenberg 1996 these facts combined indicate that government procurement schemes are critical both in determining government expenditure on pharmaceuticals and in stimulating innovation of new treatments in this paper we show that the institutions and mechanisms used by the government to pur chase prescription drugs can strongly affect market outcomes by institutions we have in mind large buyer groups structured incentives for patients to consume certain products and the devel opment and use of formularies a formulary is a mechanism that allows a buyer to identify a therapeutically similar treatment as a viable substitute for a patented treatment and to create price competition due to the ability to substitute away from the more expensive product when bargaining with the seller of a patented product the ability to shift demand to a substitute drug is a powerful negotiating tool our paper provides evidence for what we consider a surprising outcome in the case of the new prescription drug program for medicare enrollees moving consumers from cash paying status to membership in an insured group lowers optimal prices for branded prescription drugs below what they otherwise would be this is surprising because the standard effect of insurance is to create inelastic demand and therefore elicit higher prices from a seller with market power duggan and scott morton 2006 however the insurers that we study bundle insurance with a formulary and other mechanisms to create elastic demand an individual consumer typically does not know which drugs are acceptable therapeutic substitutes the consumer s physician typi cally has poor knowledge of prices especially negotiated prices and any one consumer is too small a share of demand to negotiate with a pharmaceutical company a prescription drug plan can potentially surmount all three hurdles our evidence leads us to conclude that the formulary and other mechanisms perform the spe cial role of allowing buyers to move market share among drugs with patent protection thereby raising cross price elasticities and lowering purchase prices or reducing price increases for branded drugs this result contrasts with the common intuition that an uninsured consumer

finite bubbles with short sale constraints and asymmetric information abstract we present a finite period general equilibrium model of an exchange economy with asymmetric information we say that a rational expectations equilibrium exhibits a strong bubble if the price is higher than the dividend with probability one we show that necessary conditions for a strong bubble to occur are that 1 each agent must have private information in the period and state in which the bubble occurs 2 each agent must be short sale constrained at some period in the future with positive probability and 3 agents trades are not common knowledge we present examples of bubbles when the necessary conditions are satisfied journal of economic literature classification numbers c72 d52 d82 d84 g12 g14

the economics of attribute based regulation theory and evidence from fuel economy standards in many countries fuel economy standards mandate that vehicles meet a certain fuel economy but heavier or larger vehicles are allowed to meet a lower standard this has the perverse implication of allowing automakers to meet standards either by improving fuel economy or by increasing weight which lowers fuel economy and increases externalities related to accidents this is but one example of an attribute based regulation in which the regulation imposed on a product depends on both the externality it creates and some other attribute attribute basing potentially motivates rms and individuals to strategically alter the attribute thereby endogenously altering the stringency of the regulation this paper develops a theory of attribute basing to demonstrate the costs and benets of its use the paper then empirically examines the consequences of attribute based fuel economy standards in japan where fuel economy standards are a notched attribute based function of vehicle weight we use cross sectional and panel techniques to demonstrate that attribute based regulation has signicantly altered the distribution of vehicle weight in japan where 10 of vehicles bunch at weight notches for cars whose weight is altered in response to the policy we estimate that the alteration generates a welfare loss from the exacerbation of weight related externalities of 1 500 per unit sold which translates into a 700 million annual loss across the japanese auto market

is environmental innovation embedded within high performance organisational changes the role of human resource management and complementarity in green business strategies abstract this paper investigates whether firms joint implementation of organisational innovation and training may foster their adoption of environmental innovation ei and if this correlation falls within porter hypothesis ph framework we study the relationship of complementarity between strategies of high performance work practices hpwp and human resource management hrm when ei adoption is the firms objective using an original dataset on 555 italian industrial firms regarding ei hpwp and hrm coherent with the last cis2006 2008 survey results show that sector specificity matter the only case in which strict complementarity is observed in organisational change concerns co 2 abatement a relatively complex type of ei but this is true only when the sample is restricted to more polluting and regulated sectors this evidence is coherent with the porter hypothesis complementarity related adoption of ei is an element of organisational change in firms that are subject to more stringent environmental regulations nevertheless the fact that strict complementarity is not a diffuse factor behind the adoption of all environmental innovation indeed does not come as a surprise at this stage in the development of green strategies the share of eco firms is still limited even in advanced countries that are seeking tools for a new competitiveness the full integration of eis within the internal capabilities and firm s own assets is far from being reached even in advanced and competitive industrial settings

partially revealing rational expectations equilibrium in a competitive economy abstract a class of pure exchange economies is considered in which some agents are informed of private information and others are uninformed existence of a partially revealing rational expectations equilibrium ree is proved without restricting attention to particular functional forms for utility functions and probability distributions without introducing noise into the model and without departing from the standard definition of ree the equilibrium is robust in the sense that if the primitives of the economy are slightly perturbed the economy continues to have a qualitatively similar ree with somewhat stronger assumptions placed on the economy the equilibrium is also the unique measurable ree

medicare part d are insurers gaming the low income subsidy design this paper shows how in medicare part d insurers gaming of the subsidy paid to low income enrollees distorts premiums and raises the program cost using plan level data from the first five years of the program i find multiple instances of pricing strategy distortions for the largest insurers instrumental variable estimates indicate that the changes in a concentration index measuring the manipulability of the subsidy can explain a large share of the premium growth observed between 2006 and 2011 removing this distortion could reduce the cost of the program without worsening consumer welfare

information aggregation in a noisy rational expectations economy abstract this paper analyzes a general equilibrium model of a competitive security market in which traders possess independent pieces of information about the return of a risky asset each trader conditions his estimate of the return both on his own private source of information and price which in equilibrium serves as a noisy aggregator of the total information observed by all traders a closed form characterization of the rational expectations equilibrium is presented a counter example to the existence of fully revealing equilibrium is developed