estimates of the returns to quality and coauthorship in economic academia salaries of academic economists are studied to determine if individuals receive differential returns to publishing articles of varying quality and to coauthored versus single authored articles estimates based on detailed data and a flexible nonlinear least squares procedure indicate that substantial returns to quality exist and that an individual s return from a coauthored paper with n authors is approximately 1 n times that of a single authored paper

professional achievements and gender differences among academic economists i introduction while the academic labor market for economists attracts a good deal of attention among its participants work on the differences in remuneration for economic research and other professional characteristics between men and women in academic institutions has been limited this paper tests for gender differences using data on grants and grant applications from the national science foundation ault rutman and stevenson 1979 addressing issues of academic placement found that the highest rated institution at which an academic economist will be employed is the institution of first employment willis and pieper 1991 found that women who received doctorates in economics in the 1970s had a somewhat higher rate of placement at doctoral degree granting institutions than men but that there was no difference in the rank of the institutions for these placements lower tier institutions must offer promotions to attract candidates moore et al 1983 reported that the rank of the department at which one earned the doctorate is critically important in determining initial academic placement hamermesh johnson and weisbrod 1982 found that for those at prestigious departments increases in citations lead to salary increases but that the department s rank was not inversely related to salary in his review of work by sociologists youn 1988 reported that the prestige of an academic institution was positively related to the research productivity of its scientists there are two competing hypotheses that might explain this result better departments select better scientists achievement model or better departments foster greater productivity ascription model empirical efforts to distinguish between these hypotheses have been mixed the research on salary differentials in academia has generally found that there are significant gender differences that widen during the careers of men and women 1 barbezat 1991 the most recent evidence suggests that salary differentials in the academic community may have diminished somewhat since the 1960s but still remain weiler 1990 separated the influence of the department s rank on salary by treating it in a separate equation and found that standard formulations underestimate the degree of salary discrimination although important salary is not the only measure of achievement in academe promotion to a higher rank employment in key departments and the production of well placed articles all help determine an economist s influence in the profession but despite the dramatic increase in the percentage of women receiving the ph d during the past two decades the number of senior women at graduate institutions is still very low 2 to what extent does gender bias exist in economics departments as measured not only by salary but also by other achievements such as the likelihood of achieving a senior position or being employed by a top department is there a difference in the experiences of the younger cohorts compared to their more senior counterparts this paper attempts to answer these important questions by 1 taking into account the endogeneity of the variables that are usually treated as exogenous in models of salary determination and thereby broadening the characteristics that traditionally reflect discrimination and 2 using a new detailed data base developed from the national science foundation the results of this more complete model in which salary as well as other measures of professional achievement are explained show significant differences between men and women at the more senior level at the assistant professor level although the signs of the gender coefficients are consistent with a discrimination hypothesis the results are not statistically significant ii the model single equations using the techniques developed by oaxaca 1973 and blinder 1973 have long been used to estimate gender salary differentials in academia with productivity measures such as books and articles published administrative experience etc

exploring the core factors and its dynamic effects on oil price an application on path analysis and bvar tvp model abstract as the uncertainty of oil price increases impacts of the influential factors on oil price vary over time it is of great importance to explore the core factors and its time varying influence on oil price in view of this based on the path analysis model this paper obtains the core factors builds an oil price system var model which uses demand supply price and inventory as endogenous variables and china s net imports as well as dollar index as exogenous variables then we set up a bvar tvp time varying parameter model to analyze dynamic impacts of core factors on oil price the results show that 1 oil prices became more sensitive to oil supply changes and the influence delays became shorter 2 the impact of oil inventories on oil prices with a time lag of two quarters but has a downward trend 3 the impact of oil consumption on oil prices with a time lag of two quarters and this effect is increasingly greater 4 the us dollar index is always the important factor of oil price and its control power increases gradually and the financial crisis occurred in 2008 further strengthens the influence of us dollar

patterns of research output and author concentration in the economics literature this study finds that a strong bibliometric regularity exists in the publication pattern in the economics literature the number of authors publishing n papers is approximately 1 n superscript c of those publishing one paper the economics literature conforms very well to the model with c 1 84 if data are taken from a large collection of journals when applied to individual journals the result shows that values of c range from 2 04 to 3 11 this paper also reports the degree of author concentration among leading economics journals finally this study finds that the graduates of three graduate programs account for more than half of the top 100 authors indicates strong institutional dominance in the production of the most prolific authors copyright 1991 by mit press

does paying referees expedite reviews results of a natural experiment a natural experiment in an economics field journal afforded time series observations on payments to referees for on time reviews the natural experiment yielded 15 months worth of data with no payments and about two subsequent years of data with payments using refereeand manuscript specific measures as covariates hazard models were used to gauge the effects of payments on individual referee s review times all models indicate statistically significant reductions in review times owing to referee payments reductions in review times translate into significant reductions in first response time frt median frt was reduced from 90 to 70 days a 22 reduction in the presence of payments with payments only 1 of the frts exceeded six months without payments 16 of the frts exceeded six months

oil price shocks and their short and long term effects on the chinese economy a considerable body of economic literature shows the adverse economic impacts of oil price shocks for the developed economies however there has been a lack of empirical study of this kind on china and other developing countries this paper attempts to fill this gap by answering how and to what extent oil price shocks impact china s economy emphasizing on the price transmission mechanisms to that end we develop a structural vector auto regressive model our results show that an oil price increase negatively affects output and investment but positively affects inflation rate and interest rate however with the differentiated price control policies for materials and intermediates on the one hand and final products on the other hand in china the impact on real economy represented by real output and real investment lasts much longer than that to price monetary variables our decomposition results also show that the short term impact namely output decrease induced by the cut of capacity utilization rate is greater in the first one to two years but the portion of the long term impact defined as the impact realized through an investment change increases steadily and exceeds that of short term impact at the end of the second year afterwards the long term impact dominates and maintains for quite some time

the role of warnings in regulation keeping control with less punishment abstract regulatory agencies frequently present violators with warnings not pursuing prosecution if the violation ceases upon receipt of the warning we show how such warnings may help regulators to keep control prosecution is costly for the regulator and insufficient prosecution efforts yield low penalties thus with a limited regulatory budget threats of harsh sanctions are credible only if the number of violators is low this produces multiple nash equilibria if firms may make mistakes the economy can accidentally switch from one equilibrium to another warnings reduce substantially the probability of such accidental switches from the full compliance to the no compliance equilibrium

opec retrospective and prospects 1973 1990 abstract using a relatively simple economic model of the world oil market we review what has happened since the price quadrupling of 1973 1974 comparing the model s results with actual historical data we also make projections through 1990 assuming that opec s real price is either held constant or determined by a target capacity utilization pricing rule

opec s production under fluctuating oil prices further test of the target revenue theory abstract oil production cutbacks in recent years by opec members to stabilize price and to increase revenues warrant further empirical verification of the target revenue theory trt we estimate a modified version of griffin 1985 target revenue model using data from 1973 to 2000 the sample period unlike previous investigations includes phases of both price increase 1970s and price decrease 1980s 1990s thus providing a better framework for examining production behavior the results like the earlier study are not supportive of the strict version of the trt however evidence negative and significant elasticity of supply of the partial version are substantiated further empirical estimates do not support the competitive pricing model hypothesizing a positive elasticity of supply opec s loss of market share and the drop in the share of oil based energy should signal an adjustment in pricing and production strategies

environmental innovation and environmental performance abstract by estimating a simultaneous panel data model of environmental innovation and toxic air pollution this paper identifies bi directional causal links between the two we study a panel of 127 manufacturing industries over the period 1989 2004 pollutant emissions are an implicit measure of policy stringency and environmental patent counts are used to measure environmental innovation after accounting for the joint endogeneity we find that environmental innovation is an important driver of reductions in us toxic emissions conversely we find that tightened pollution targets induce environmental innovation however our estimates indicate that the environmental policy multiplier the proportionate contribution of induced innovation to long run emission reduction is small

oecd oil demand estimated response surfaces for nine world oil models abstract econometric response surfaces for nine different world oil models are estimated for aggregate oil demand within the developed countries of the organization of economic cooperation and development oecd the estimates are based upon scenario results reported for the 1989 2010 period in a recent model comparison study the response surface approach provides a parsimonious summary of model responses it enables one to estimate long run price elasticities directly rather than to infer such responses from 20 year cross scenario results it also shows more directly the significant effect of initial demand conditions in 1988 on future oil demand growth due to the dynamic nature of the oil demand response past prices exert a strongly positive effect on future oil demand in some models but little or even negative effect in other models on the basis of this finding we urge demand modellers to be much more explicit about what their systems reveal about the extent of disequilibrium embedded in their model s starting oil demand conditions

negative returns to seniority new evidence in academic markets recent research has suggested that the long observed negative association between seniority and pay among college faculty largely reflects below average research productivity of senior faculty a possibility that most earlier studies did not examine overlooked in both waves of studies however is match quality because the higher quality of the faculty institutional match implied by higher seniority should all else equal result in higher salaries failure to account for match quality inflates the estimated returns to seniority indeed that positive bias the authors find is roughly equal in magnitude to the negative bias caused by failure to account for research quantity and quality when they account for both match quality and faculty research productivity in an analysis of data on economics faculty at five research universities over a 21 year period the authors estimate that holding experience and other factors constant the penalty for twenty years of seniority is 16 of salary

instrument choice for environmental protection when technological innovation is endogenous this paper compares qualitatively and quantitatively the welfare effects of emissions taxes auctioned emissions permits and free grandfathered permits when technological innovation is endogenous we find that there is no unambiguous case for preferring any of these policy instruments the relative welfare ranking of instruments depends on the costs of innovation the extent to which innovations can be imitated the slope and level of the marginal environmental benefit function and the number of polluting firms we illustrate the types of situations when there can be significant welfare discrepancies between the policies and when there are not

oil and the macroeconomy since world war ii all but one of the u s recessions since world war ii have been preceded typically with a lag of around three fourths of a year by a dramatic increase in the price of crude petroleum this does not mean that oil shocks caused these recessions evidence is presented however that even over the period 1948 72 this correlation is statistically significant and nonspurious supporting the proposition that oil shocks were a contributing factor in at least some of the u s recessions prior to 1972 by extension energy price increases may account for much of post opec macroeconomic performance

global economic activity and crude oil prices a cointegration analysis abstract this paper empirically investigates the cointegrating relationship between crude oil prices and global economic activity the kilian economic index is used as an indicator of global economic activity based on a supply demand framework and the cointegration theory we find that real futures prices of crude oil are cointegrated with the kilian economic index and a trade weighted us dollar index and crude oil prices are influenced significantly by fluctuations in the kilian economic index through both long run equilibrium conditions and short run impacts we also develop an empirically stable data coherent and single equation error correction model ecm which has sensible economic properties empirical results based on the ecm show that the adjustment implied by a permanent change in the kilian economic index is a relatively drawn out process

open access journals and academics behavior the rising star of scholarly publishing is open access oa even some traditional journals now offer this option on author payment and many full freely accessible journals are now available to scholars providing relief to research institutions increasingly unable to afford the escalating subscription rates of serials however proper recognition of full oa journals by the community remains a major obstacle to overcome if they are to become a viable alternative for scholarly communication through a survey this work investigates economics scholars attitudes to oa and attempts to outline the state of practices and norms governing individuals publication choices jel l17 l86 o33

not by productivity alone how visibility and specialization contribute to academic earnings the popular adage publish or perish has long defined individual career strategies as well as scholarly investigations of earnings inequality in academe as researchers have relied heavily on rese

economists salaries and lifetime productivity one of the advantages of studying academic labor markets is that many facets of productivity are easily measured this makes it possible to study the relationship between pay and productivity there has been some debate whether labor markets are auction markets where salaries equal expected near term productivity or are characterized by implicit long term contracts in this paper we test these propositions directly and perhaps for the first time using data from the academic labor market we show that economists salaries are best described as reflecting implicit long term contracts weiss and lillard 14 modelled the determination of academic salaries when a professor s productivity changes over time perhaps due to luck in creativity or shifts in opportunities for productive research they concluded that if there are no costs to mobility then the salary must equal the professor s immediate expected productivity competition among universities for faculty forces salaries to equal expected productivity in the near term with positive costs of mobility this spot market relationship is severed causing salaries to be less sensitive to new information about expected productivity in particular the cost of mobility creates a wedge that allows increases decreases in expected near term productivity to not always be matched by wage increases decreases in fact if mobility is sufficiently costly the contract provides perfect insurance against individual failure and a stable salary stream over time 14 162 since salary does vary over an academic s career the stable salary stream scenario is empirically irrelevant the question then is whether professors are paid according to their expected near term productivity or according to some implicit long term contract that might place a greater weight on early productivity what factors determine a faculty member s productivity in a university let us assume that universities are concerned with their contribution to the advancement of knowledge or their reputation for doing so and teaching a university s current reputation for advancing knowledge depends on its current publications and citations 1 a university is not directly interested in re

the impact of journals and authors on international business research a citational analysis of jibs articles in this paper we use citational analysis to examine the influence of individuals and disciplines on international business research we collected citational data over the ten year period 1984 to 1993 from every issue of the journal of international business studies we found that management economics marketing and finance disciplines have had significant influence on international business research and identified researchers such as dunning porter vernon casson rugman and hofstede as having made significant contributions to international business research

cartel formation and oligopoly structure a new assessment of the crude oil market while economic theorists regard opec as a perfect example of a long lasting cartel energy economists strongly deny such view applying the ideas of new empirical industrial organization a market description is derived cartel theory and empirical evidence fit together well stable long lasting cartels can be explained only for subclasses of market models and exactly such type of model is obtained here a variety of different market models is tested opec and the market for crude oil is best described by a price leader model

collaboration incentives endogenous selection into single and coauthorships by surname initial in economics and management many prior studies suggest that default alphabetical ordering of coauthors in economicsconfers disproportionate professional advantages on those with an early surname initialbecause of the greater prominence it gives to the first author however these studies do notconsider that authors select into coauthorships according to the incentives identified wedevelop a model of endogenous selection into single and coauthorships around the principlethat no one wants to be second author when they expect to provide the larger contribution i e are of higher quality we test it with authorship data from economics with man agement which does not use default alphabetical ordering as a benchmark we predict foreconomics that lower quality authors with an early surname initial would be less desirablecoauthors whereas higher quality authors with a late initial would have a lower desire tocoauthor most desired are early initial authors of high quality who are therefore advan taged in forming high quality collaborations the combined effect predicts citation rankincreases with surname initial for single authored papers and decreases for coauthored we find both effects for economics when compared to management and absolutely ourfindings indicate that part of the advantage enjoyed by early surname initial authors in eco nomics could be due to the higher ability among them having more incentive compatiblecollaborators rather than merely to greater prominence

the effect of gender sorting on propensity to coauthor implications for academic promotion a cohort sample of ph d economists indicates a significant propensity for researchers to select coauthors of the same sex this gender sorting contributes to lower article production for women further we find evidence of bias in academic promotion when single authored and coauthored articles carry the same weight in promotion and salary decisions the evidence explains in part why women academics wait longer for promotion and are not as likely to be promoted as men among the effects of gender sorting is self selection of women into larger departments where they are more likely to find colleagues of the same sex

how do journal quality co authorship and author order affect agricultural economists salaries utilizing an original data set containing annual salaries and peer reviewed publication histories for 326 faculty members from top ranked ph d granting programs we examine the labor market for academic agricultural economists the results suggest that higher quality publications have a greater impact on annual earnings that sole authored articles have a higher return than multi authored articles and that no wage premium exists for being the lead author of a non alphabetic article

reputation and earnings the roles of quality and quantity in academe we examine the determinants of professional reputation does quantity of exposures raise reputation independent of quality does quality of the most important exposure have extra effects on reputation in a very large sample of academic economists there is little evidence that a scholar s most influential work provides any extra enhancement of reputation quality rankings matter more than absolute quality quantity has a zero or even negative effect on proxies for reputation data on salaries however show positive effects of quantity independent of quality we test explanations for the differences between the determinants of reputation and salary jel l14 j31

scholarships citations and salaries economic rewards in economics while substantial attention has been paid to the determinants of academics earnings 5 7 8 14 15 this literature has by implication suggested that the mere fact of having spent more time in the profession and the publication of more scholarly articles and books are the major determinants of salary differences our purpose here is to introduce a new determinant the quality of one s scholarly research measured by the frequency of references to that work as an additional objective measure of productivity we expect that this proxy for the extent of a scholar s influence on the work of other researchers is rewarded by the market in addition to giving a more complete picture of the determination of salaries in academic labor markets our approach should be useful in establishing a better framework for the evaluation of issues of discrimination in such markets than has been presented before 2 9

time varying parameters and the out of sample forecasting performance of structural exchange rate models varying parameter estimation techniques based on recursive application of the kalman filter are used to improve the predictive performance of a class of monetary exchange rate models i find that allowing estimated parameters to vary over time enhances the models forecasting performance for the dollar pound dollar mark and dollar yen exchange rates contrary to earlier results in the literature ex post forecasts for the dollar mark rate compare favorably with those obtained from the naive random walk forecasting rule

relationships between oil price shocks and stock market an empirical analysis from china this paper investigates the interactive relationships between oil price shocks and chinese stock market using multivariate vector auto regression oil price shocks do not show statistically significant impact on the real stock returns of most chinese stock market indices except for manufacturing index and some oil companies some important oil price shocks depress oil company stock prices increase in oil volatility may increase the speculations in mining index and petrochemicals index which raise their stock returns both the world oil price shocks and china oil price shocks can explain much more than interest rates for manufacturing index

dynamic incentives of environmental regulations the effects of alternative policy instruments on technology diffusion abstract we develop a framework for comparing empirically the effects of alternative environmental policy instruments on the diffusion of new technology market based and command and control approaches can he quantitatively compared by estimating the economic penalty that firms through their actions reveal to be associated with violation of standards in the context of concerns about global climate change we empirically examine the likely effects of pigouvian taxes technology adoption subsidies and technology standards we employ state level data on the diffusion of thermal insulation in new home construction comparing the effects of energy prices insulation cost and building codes

are oil shocks inflationary asymmetric and nonlinear specifications versus changes in regime this paper identifies a structural break in core u s inflation phillips curves such that oil prices contributed substantially before 1981 but since that time pass through has been negligible this characterization is robust to a variety of re specifications and fits the data better than asymmetric and nonlinear oil price alternatives evidence does not support the hypotheses that declining energy intensity or deregulation of energy producing and consuming industries played an important role monetary policy did not itself become less accommodative of oil shocks but may have helped create a regime where inflation is less sensitive to price shocks more generally

oil price fluctuations and u s dollar exchange rates adding oil prices to the monetary model of exchange rates we find that oil prices significantly explain movements in the value of the u s dollar usd against major currencies from the 1970s to 2008 our long run and forecasting results are remarkably consistent with an oil exchange rate relationship increases in real oil prices lead to a significant depreciation of the usd against net oil exporter currencies such as canada mexico and russia on the other hand the currencies of oil importers such as japan depreciate relative to the usd when the real oil price goes up

reputational capital and academic pay geoffrey k turnbull i introduction economists continue to have a strong interest in academic labor markets as the steady stream of earnings studies over the past several decades readily attests the academic labor market draws the attention of economists not only because it is a topic of direct personal interest but also because it presents an opportunity to examine general theories of labor markets in a context with which the researcher has intimate experience nonetheless important questions about how the market values research teaching and service remain unanswered to what extent does the market reward quality versus quantity of published research or team production in the form of co authorship furthermore how durable is reputational capital for individuals whose research productivity diminishes during their career ultimately these questions relate in one way or another to the nature of the incentive structure faced by academic economists we provide new evidence concerning the role of research quality co authorship administrative service and teaching performance in the production of reputational capital in addition we explore the question of the durability of reputational capital once some of these activities cease we assume that the quantity and quality of published research largely determines an individual s reputational capital in the external market to help us sort out the separate effects on reputational capital of both the quality and quantity of research activity we measure research quality by both journal quality and career citations employing an interactive quantity quality term a related question concerns the role of team production in building an individual s reputational capital do individuals receive differential returns to publishing single authored versus co authored research papers this is an interesting question in light of the substantial increase in co authorship over the last few decades 1 one explanation of this trend is that the academic market has presented scholars with increasing opportunities for specialization in the production of knowledge and that team production involves the combination of complementary skilled researchers if team production reflects complementarities in the production of research we should observe little difference in the returns to single versus co authored work another explanation is that co authorship involves the combination of substitute skilled researchers so that co authorship presents a way for individuals to reduce their research efforts without reducing their individual measured research output to the extent that co authorshi p represents such substitution the market should fully discount the returns to multiple authored papers in this article we also move beyond identifying the factors that enhance an individual s reputation in the market to study the question of the durability of reputational capital some individuals quit publishing once they are tenured or promoted while others experience lengthy but temporary breaks in their flow of research output we examine the potential penalties associated with gaps in research output providing the first empirical evidence concerning the durability of reputational capital for academic economists in order to ensure that our analysis deals with these issues in a way that is most relevant to a large portion of the market for academic economists we use data from several research universities but restrict the sample frame to a single discipline economics much of the previous work estimating how publications or other factors affect academic salaries typically use data from a single university with earnings equations estimated across disciplines restricting the sample to a single discipline has the additional advantage of reducing potential heterogeneity problems associated with measuring productivity across disciplines in addition our data enable us more thoroughly to explore the empirical issues in the debate since they permit more precise measures of the past and current productivity of individuals engaged in comparable work

the determination of oil prices 1945 1995 the paper provides a theoretical framework to explain the determination of international oil prices based upon the interaction of supply and demand curves the analysis of components of the framework identifies important characteristics of the global market for crude oil the paper applies the framework to the oil market from 1945 in particular it incorporates key changes in the market to enhance understanding of how the market has been and is working finally the framework is used to explain why oil prices have become more volatile and what issues and questions arise from current oil market behaviour

does raiding explain the negative returns to faculty seniority i introduction economists have studied various aspects of faculty mobility research shows that turnover is greater among nonunion faculty rees 1994 female faculty average slightly more employers than male faculty barbezat and hughes 2001 ginther and kahn 2004 1 the responsiveness of turnover to relative pay diminishes with rank ehrenberg kasper and rees 1991 and research productivity enhances prospects for upward mobility ault rutman and stevenson 1979 1982 coupe smeets and warzynski 2005 still questions remain unanswered where do faculty go when they leave a university how does faculty turnover vary with time at a university what percentage of faculty move upward and what percentage move downward because of tenure denials or the prospect of being turned down for tenure the present article contributes to our understanding of these issues but its primary objective was to use data on faculty mobility to provide insights on another issue returns to academic seniority the negative returns to seniority that many studies find are commonly attributed to one of two factors 2 the first view is that negative returns reflect monopsony power on the part of universities faculty with high mobility costs acquire high seniority and because they are unlikely to move they are paid less than equally productive faculty that employers view as more likely to leave a competing explanation is that highly productive faculty are raided according to this story returns to seniority are biased negatively because faculty with high seniority tend to have low unmeasured productivity the best faculty are bid away moving on to better jobs those who remain are the faculty without outside offers and the negative returns estimated for senior faculty actually reflect a penalty for low unmeasured productivity rather than a true penalty for seniority the raiding story has several implications first estimated returns to seniority should become less negative the more fully the productivity is measured second estimated returns should be less negative once we control for faculty who are bid away finally and of particular importance estimated returns to seniority should not be negative for faculty who are bid away the faculty for whom unmeasured productivity is presumably high with the right data set these hypotheses can be tested rejection of the raiding hypothesis would provide tacit evidence of monoposony in academic markets 3 this article contributes to the literature in several ways it is the first research to directly test the raiding hypothesis it provides a detailed look at faculty mobility in one segment of the academic labor market it extends and improves bratsberg ragan and warren 2003 in the following ways it expands the sample to cover three decades of faculty pay records it includes additional controls for productivity number and types of books recent and prospective articles and so forth resulting in the most complete specification of research productivity to date and it allows for heterogeneity in the seniority penalty via phd pedigree and direction of move finally it tests for the possibility that the academic job market does a better job of matching faculty and universities in recent years as might be expected because of the information revolution the sample consists of five public phd granting universities in the midwest we track all tenure track economics faculty employed in these universities over a 30 yr period we measure their productivity their pay and their mobility as such the study provides a rich and detailed investigation of one subset of economics programs it is possible that mobility may be greater in urban areas where faculty can more readily obtain alternative employment without relocating and prior research indicates that pay structures depend on the university s stature and its relative emphasis on research and teaching

a note on opec market power and oil prices a static model of opec as a cartel with a fringe group of competitive producers is used to define short and long run monopoly price curves as a function of opec s market share a static model is used on the grounds that oil as adelman has argued is not a depletable resource in the sense of the hotelling theory but is more like a normal good that can be produced with application of labour capital resources and technology a rational cartel will choose prices that lie between the two curves the shapes of the curves depend on the world price elasticity of demand for oil and on the supply response rate of competitive oil producers as opec s market share increases the distances between the two curves increase rapidly this could lead to an unstable market since any price between the two curves would be obtainable in the short run in the long run prices above the long run price curve will result in a loss of market share for the cartel except in a growing market reducing the cartel s market power future work will extend the model to consider dynamic pricing strategies as a function of the cartel s discount rate and world market response rate

price discovery in oil markets a time varying analysis of the 1990 1991 gulf conflict abstract this study examines the behaviour of crude oil spot and futures markets in the uk and usa during the 1990 1991 gulf conflict the objective is to investigate the relative ability of spot and futures markets to impound information this is achieved with the use of a generalized model of price discovery which represents a synthesis of the two most commonly used methodologies in its field emphasis is placed on the time varying nature of price discovery relationships results indicate that such relationships are strongly temporal these findings offer new insights into the nature of relationships between spot and futures markets

this is what happened to the oil price macroeconomy relationship reply abstract james hamilton argues that oil price changes are still important for the macroeconomy and that using a filter which screens out drops and measures increases relative to a reference level wellrepresents the effects of price changes when they are choppy while this measure outperforms the oil price transformations considered in my paper much of its predictive power is coming from the pre 1986 and pre 1973 part of the sample with less than 10 years of choppy data finding the best oil price transformation will likely require analysis with cross sectional components ruling out effects from oil price decreases is also probably counterproductive to uncovering structure

an examination of the reliability of prestigious scholarly journals evidence and implications for decision makers in universities all over the world hiring and promotion committees regularly hear the argument this is important work because it is about to appear in prestigious journal x moreover those who allocate levels of research funding such as in the multi billion pound research assessment exercise in uk universities often come under pressure to assess research quality in a mechanical way by using journal prestige ratings this paper s results suggest that such tendencies are dangerous it uses total citations over a quarter of a century as the criterion the paper finds that it is far better to publish the best article in an issue of a medium quality journal like the oxford bulletin of economics and statistics than to publish the worst article or often the worst 4 articles in an issue of a top journal like the american economic review implications are discussed

what happened to the oil price macroeconomy relationship abstract strong evidence is found that oil prices no longer granger cause many u s macroeconomic indicator variables in data after 1973 a number of potential explanations are explored that sample stability issues are responsible that oil prices are now endogenous and that linear and symmetric specifications misrepresent the form of the oil price interaction none of these hypotheses are supported by the data the opec price increases do appear to have had significant impacts while the effects of the price declines of the 1980s are smaller and harder to characterize these results have potentially important implications for the large body of research which utilizes oil prices as an instrumental or explanatory variable

earnings profiles of department heads comparing cross section and panel models academics who become department heads suffer declining research skills because of time spent performing administrative tasks and this skill depreciation slows future wage growth this study examines kansas state university faculty who served as department heads during the period 1965 92 cross section estimates of the compensation for serving as department head are biased upward because of a correlation between unmeasured productivity characteristics and selection as department head to correct for this bias the authors reestimate earnings equations using a panel model that incorporates personal fixed effects although the average department head in the sample received a wage premium of 12 the premium for past administrative service had completely disappeared for the typical former head another finding is that skill depreciation was most severe and wage growth most adversely affected in the sciences as compensation department heads in the sciences received a larger initial administrative premium th

the impact of oil price shocks evidence from the industries of six oecd countries most of the studies about the macroeconomic consequences of oil price shocks have been focused on us aggregate data in contrast to these studies this paper empirically assesses the dynamic effect of oil price shocks on the output of the main manufacturing industries in six oecd countries the pattern of responses to an oil price shock by industrial output is diverse across the four european monetary union emu countries under consideration france germany italy and spain but broadly similar in the uk and the us moreover evidence on cross industry heterogeneity of oil shock effects within the emu countries is also reported

induced innovation and energy prices this paper uses u s patent data from 1970 to 1994 to study the impact of energy prices on energy efficient innovations theories of technological change have focused both on demand side factors which spur innovative activity by increasing the value of new innovations and supply side factors such as scientific advancements that make new innovations possible data on demand side factors are easily obtained but data on supply side factors that influence innovation are not readily available this paper uses patent citations as a measure of the usefulness of the existing base of scientific knowledge citations to previous patents are used to construct productivity estimates which measure the usefulness of the existing stock of knowledge to inventors in a given energy field for any given year these estimates are then combined with data on demand side factors to estimate a model of induced innovation in energy technologies the results indicate that both energy prices and the supply of knowledge have strongly significant positive effects on innovation the paper concludes with a discussion of the implication of this work for environmental policy

efficiency improving fossil fuel technologies for electricity generation data selection and trends abstract this paper studies patenting dynamics in efficiency improving electricity generation technologies as an important indicator of innovation activity we build a novel database of worldwide patent applications in efficiency improving fossil fuel technologies for electricity generation and then analyse patenting trends over time and across countries we find that patenting has mostly been stable over time with a recent decreasing trend oecd countries represent the top innovators and the top markets for technology some non oecd countries and particularly china are also very active in terms of patenting activity in this sector the majority of patents are first filed in oecd countries and only then in bric and other non oecd countries bric and other non oecd countries apply for patents that are mostly marketed domestically but bric countries represent important markets for patent duplication of oecd inventions these results are indicative of significant technology transfer in the field of efficiency improving technologies for electricity production

black agricultural economists discussion the authors of these three papers have performed a valuable service by reviewing and analyzing the status of blacks who have chosen agricultural economics as their profession occupation the estimated number of black agricultural economists continues to be small relative to the total number 32 in 1970 41 in 1981 and 56 in 1983 during this period the estimated number of blacks holding ph d degrees has risen slightly from 17 54 in 1970 to 18 44 in 1981 and then to 25 45 in 1983 however the percentage of blacks with ph d degrees remains lower than the percentage for all agricultural economists which has exceeded 60 since 1976 strauss and tarr apparently data on the number of black female economists were not tabulated

forecasting crude oil market volatility further evidence using garch class models abstract this paper extends the work of kang et al 2009 we use a greater number of linear and nonlinear generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity garch class models to capture the volatility features of two crude oil markets brent and west texas intermediate wti the one five and twenty day out of sample volatility forecasts of the garch class models are evaluated using the superior predictive ability test and with more loss functions unlike kang et al 2009 we find that no model can outperform all of the other models for either the brent or the wti market across different loss functions however in general the nonlinear garch class models which are capable of capturing long memory and or asymmetric volatility exhibit greater forecasting accuracy than the linear ones especially in volatility forecasting over longer time horizons such as five or twenty days

fame and the fortune of academic economists how the market rewards influential research in economics we analyze the pay and position of 1 009 faculty members who teach in doctoral granting economics departments at fifty three large public universities in the united states using the web of science we have identified the journal articles published by these scholars and the number of times each of these articles has been subsequently cited in published research articles we find that research influence as measured by various measures of total citations is a surprisingly strong predictor of the salary and the prestige of the department in which professors are employed we also examine how coauthorship is rewarded by the market

the evolution of the scientific productivity of highly productive economists this paper studies the evolution of research productivity of a sample of economists working in the best 81 departments in the world in 2007 the main novelty is that in so far as a productivity distribution can be identified with an income distribution we measure productivity mobility in a dynamic context using an indicator inspired in an income mobility index suggested by fields 2010 for a two period world productivity is measured in terms of publications weighted by the citation impact of the journals where each article is published in the periodical literature we study the evolution of average productivity productivity inequality the extent of rank reversals and productivity mobility for seven cohorts as well as the population as a whole we offer new evidence confirming previous results about the heterogeneity of the evolution of productivity for top and other researchers however the major result is that contrary to what was expected for our sample of very highly productive scholars the effect of rank reversals between the two periods on overall productivity mobility offsets the effect of an increase in productivity inequality from the first to the second period in the youngest five out of seven cohorts jel a11 a12 b41 d63 i32

what s your identification strategy innovation in corporate finance research we study the diffusion of techniques designed to identify causal relationships in corporate finance research we estimate that the diffusion started in the mid 1990s lagged 20 years compared to economics and is now used in the majority of corporate finance articles consistent with recent theories of technology diffusion the adoption varies across researchers based on individuals expected net benefits of adoption younger scholars holders of phds in economics and those working at top institutions adopt faster adoption is accelerated through networks of colleagues and alumni and is also facilitated by straddlers who cross over from economics to finance our findings highlight new forces that explain the diffusion of innovation and shape the norms of academic research this paper was accepted by gustavo manso finance

what is discrimination gender in the american economic association 1935 2004 we illustrate problems of measuring discrimination using elections to aea offices with a new econometric technique we find female candidates have a much better than random chance of victory this advantage is either reverse discrimination or reflects beliefs that women are more productive the former interpretation could be explained by an unchanging median voter whose preferences were not satisfied by suppliers of candidates but there was a structural change in voting behavior in the mid 1970s the results suggest it is generally impossible to claim differences in rewards for different groups measure the extent of discrimination or even its direction jel a11 d72 j16

property rights and entrepreneurship in science this paper examines the evolving relationship in science between the reward structure and entrepreneurial activity we draw a distinction between two types of property rights basic science is fostered by a mechanism of reputational rights technological advances and the products and processes they produce are fostered by a mechanism of proprietary rights the two forms of property rights differ markedly in terms of the incentives they provide to share information in a timely fashion we argue that because of a host of factors university based scientists in certain fields are more likely to privatize knowledge today than in the past trading reputational rights for proprietary rights events in the life sciences serve as a case study a discussion of how privatization affects basic science follows although the evidence is far from complete we conclude that the movement towards privatization may be more beneficial to product development and the scientists engaged in the activity than to basic science

on the climate change effects of high oil prices some commentators claim that the oil market has achieved within a few months what international bureaucrats have struggled to obtain in a decade of international climate negotiations the fallacy of the oil price argument is that substitutions and income effects that would result from higher oil prices are not considered using a computable general equilibrium model we show that high oil prices cannot serve as substitutes for effective climate policies

incentives for advanced pollution abatement technology at the industry level an evaluation of policy alternatives abstract in this research we evaluate the incentive effects of five environmental policy instruments to promote the development and adoption of advanced pollution abatement technology in a heterogenous industry from most to least incentive the policy instruments can be rank ordered as follows i auctioned permits ii emissions taxes and subsidies iii issued marketable permits iv performance standards including performance standards in this list necessitates the assumption that they are differentiated between heterogeneous firms before the technology adoption in a way which replicates the initial emissions control distribution of the efficient incentive based instruments with the starting point normalized in this fashion the instrument rankings are invariant with respect to the size of firms the size of the industry or the industry s abatement cost structure

tools or toys the impact of high technology on scholarly productivity i introduction and motivation in the past several decades investment that makes communication easier has increased rapidly in the united states and other developed economies since the mid 1980s a combination of technical change and deregulation has also reduced long distance telephone rates in the united states by 50 reported by allen 1995 pitney bowes 1997 reported that fax usage increased by 20 between 1996 and 1997 alone and electronic mail e mail unknown before 1985 is ubiquitous today popular discussion of a wide range of additional examples of rapidly declining prices and explosive growth of the use of telecommunications is provided by cairncross 1997 attempts to measure the impact on aggregate total factor and labor productivity of these supposedly productivity enhancing investments in broad reaching technical improvements such as computing machinery and communications equipment have not met with great success as in morrison 1997 but see greenan and mairesse 1996 1 an alternative to measuring effects on the broader economy is to measure the impact of generalized technical change on productivity in specific activities observed at the micro level an earlier literature including griliches 1958 and trajtenberg 1989 has clearly traced the effect of specific innovations in raising productivity in specific sectors of the economy this article expands on that tradition by trying to identify the effect of the recent broad revolution in communications on one activity scholarly publishing we propose studying scholarly publishing before and after technical change greatly lowered communication costs we examine in particular whether increasing ease of communication has altered scholars choices about their methods of production and whether those methods yielded changes in the productivity of scholarly activity that are consistent with increasing access to new communications technologies 2 in section ii we discuss a model of the production process in scholarly writing in relation to the cost of communications in section iii we describe the unique data set we assembled to examine the relation between technical change and scholarly productivity section iv presents the results of using these data to test the hypotheses that we develop and section v compares coauthored to solo authored studies and provides a suggestion for the increased prevalence of the former section vi offers a consistent explanation for most of the results ii a model of scholarly production the example that we use in this study of the impact of technology is the nature and outcomes of the choices of co workers by authors of scholarly publications in economics the importance of team research has been stressed by a number of authors studying the economics of innovation including dasgupta 1988 who also presents a research summary so that our specific example has broader implications for the study of technical change has the decline in the cost of communication altered scholars choices in a way consistent with these technologies increasing scholarly productivity in examining scholarly productivity we focus on research output in particular we view scholars as having three production choices 1 work solo s 2 work with close by coauthor s c or 3 work with distant coauthor s d in the model in this section the scholar is assumed to choose a production technology that maximizes his or her scholarly productivity measured as the quality of the article produced in section vi we a dopt an alternative characterization of a scholar s choices we assume that the scholar has a wide range of potential research activities to choose among and has perfect knowledge of the productivity p valued in dollars of all potential matches s c sub i member of c and d sub i member of d 3 each match generates one solo equivalent article per period

academic pay in the united kingdom and the united states the differential returns to productivity and the lifetime earnings gap this paper estimates earnings functions for two samples of u k and u s academic economists despite significant differences in compensation schemes a comparably specified human capital earnings model does a good job explaining earnings variations for academic economists in both countries our estimates suggest that rewards for research are more immediate and direct in the united states because of the national salary scale the payoffs to experience and seniority are greater and the payoffs to research are lower in the united kingdom than in the united states after adjusting for productivity and demographic factors we find that u s economists are paid approximately 40 more than otherwise equivalent economists in the united kingdom simulating career age earnings profiles for both markets we find that the earnings gap widens with experience for relatively productive research economists and may even narrow with age for relatively less productive research economists nevertheless the cumulative lifetime earnings foregone are substantial for research and nonresearch economists in the united kingdom

citations or journal quality which is rewarded more in the academic labor market research quality can be evaluated from citations or from the prestige of journals publishing the research we relate salary of tenured university of california uc economists to their lifetime publications of 5 500 articles and to the 140 000 citations to these articles citations hardly affect salary especially in top ranked uc departments where impacts of citations are less than one tenth those of journals in lower ranked departments and when journal quality is less comprehensively measured effects of citations on salary increase if journal quality is just measured by counting articles in journal tiers apparent effects of citations are overstated jel a14 j44

which journal rankings best explain academic salaries evidence from the university of california the ranking of an academic journal is important to authors universities journal publishers and research funders rankings are gaining prominence as countries adopt regular research assessment exercises that especially reward publication in high impact journals yet even within a rankings oriented discipline like economics there is no agreement on how aggressively lower ranked journals are down weighted and in how wide is the universe of journals considered moreover since it is typically less costly for authors to cite superfluous references whether of their own volition or prompted by editors than it is to ignore relevant ones rankings based on citations may be easily manipulated in contrast when the merits of publication in one journal or another are debated during hiring promotion and salary decisions the evaluators are choosing over actions with costly consequences we therefore look to the academic labor market using data on economists in the university of california system to relate their lifetime publications in 700 different academic journals to salary we test amongst various sets of journal rankings and publication discount rates to see which are most congruent with the returns implied by the academic labor market jel a14 i23 j44

innovation in pollution control comparisons of the various institutional arrangements for controlling pollutant emissions from individual sources effluent fees effluent control subsidies marketable permits and direct command and control regulation have usually focused on their static efficiency properties and institutional feasibility e g dales 1968 zerbe 1970 baumol and oates 1975 kneese and schultze 1975 marin 1978 mills and white 1978 spence and weitzman 1978 russell 1979 a relatively neglected area has been the study of how each arrangement influences innovation in pollution control a few studies e g kneese and schultze 1975 marin 1978 mills and white 1978 russell 1979 have casually claimed that the control methods that rely on economic incentives provide superior incentives for innovation but there have been few systematic studies of the question this paper provides a simple model of pollution control innovation by a profitmaximizing polluter who is subject to the various control methods the consequences of the methods will be explored in three major contexts first we assume that the polluter and the innovation is a small enough part of the overall pollution problem so that none of the important marginal conditions are changed by the innovation second we assume that the polluter and the innovation are important enough so that marginal conditions are changed by the innovations but that the governmental authority determining pollution control incentives or levels fails to make the appropriate adjustments third we again assume that the innovation causes marginal conditions to change but in this case the governmental authority makes the appropriate adjustments we use the term ratcheting to describe this last phenomenon in all cases we assume that the innovating polluter correctly predicts the reactions of the governmental authority and bases his innovation decisions on that prediction a profit maximizing entrepreneur would normally be expected to adopt any innovation that promised gains present discounted value to him in excess of initial

determinants of official opec crude prices the hypothesis of this paper is that crude oil like any other unfinished commodity is valued for the products derived from it the purpose is to offer an empirical explanation for changes in the crude price charged by the members of opec the model results show that the market clearing prices reported to prevail for petroleum products on the principal petroleum spot market at rotterdam are the primary determinants of changes in official crude prices a systematic relationship between offical and spot prices is argued to have prevailed since 1974 an appendix clarifies five types of data required for the model 13 references 4 tables

can direct regulations spur innovations in environmental technologies a study on firm level patenting this paper provides new evidence on the role of non market based command and control regulations in relation to innovations in environmental technologies while pricing is generally considered the first best policy instrument non market regulations such as technology standards and non tradable emission quotas are common when a regulator faces multiple emission types and targets heterogeneous recipients or uncertainty with regard to marginal damages knowing whether these regulations spur or hinder innovation is of great importance to environmental policy using a unique norwegian panel data set that includes information about the type and number of patent applications technology standards non tradable emission quotas and a large number of control variables for almost all large and medium sized norwegian incorporated firms we are able to conduct a comprehensive study of the effect of non market based regulations on environmental patenting unlike previous studies that are typically conducted at the industry level we are able to take firm heterogeneiry into account and thereby reduce the common problem of omitted variable bias in our analysis we empirically identify strong and significant effects on innovations from implicit regulatory costs associated with the threat that a firm will be sanctioned for violating an emission permit

determinants of environmental innovation in us manufacturing industries abstract this paper provides new evidence on the determinants of environmental innovation we employ panel data models to study how environmental innovation by us manufacturing industries responded to changes in pollution abatement expenditures and regulatory enforcement during the period 1983 through 1992 we find that 1 environmental innovation as measured by the number of successful environmental patent applications granted to the industry responded to increases in pollution abatement expenditures however 2 increased monitoring and enforcement activities related to existing regulations did not provide any additional incentive to innovate we also find some empirical evidence that environmental innovation is more likely to occur in industries that are internationally competitive

oil prices without opec a walk on the supply side abstract the rapid increases of oil prices during the 1970s are commonly regarded as prima facie evidence of monopoly power this paper applies the theory of exhaustible resources to estimate the equilibrium oil prices also known as efficiency prices which would have prevailed in the absence of monopoly profits the theory incorporates an extraction cost function wherein cost is a rising function of the cumulative amount of oil extracted the model is used to simulate efficiency price paths under a variety of assumptions about extraction costs and real interest rates which are representative of perceptions at various times in recent history these simulations show that the price increases of 1974 and 1979 1980 can be explained as a response to supply side changes espicially changes in the perceived cost of the backstop technology and the fall in real interest rates in the mid and late 1970s thus while efficiency prices were high in the 1970s relative to extraction costs it is plausible that average monopoly profits were negligible this situation appears to have changed in the early 1980s due to the return of real interest rates to their historic levels in early 1982 even spot prices already below official prices were substantially above the estimated efficiency or competitive price level on the other hand efficiency prices remain far above extraction costs thus even if the price setting power of opec were eroded by competition the real price of oil would not fall below the level established in 1974

the us dollar and the world oil market abstract due to the increasing value of the dollar world oil prices rose rather than fell relative to the price of oecd exports between 1980 and 1984 the real crude oil price of oecd countries increased by approximately 30 more than its counterpart for the usa this paper calculates that if oecd oil prices had not risen but followed the trend for us prices world oil demand in 1984 would have been about 3 million barrels per day 6 6 higher than otherwise two plausible scenarios which assume the same nominal oil price us inflation rate and oecd growth rate but different values for the dollar are considered world oil consumption by 1990 could vary by 4 million barrels per day depending upon shifts in the exchange rates and the value of the dollar this variation is comparable to the range associated with significant differences in the economic growth rate between now and 1990 the paper shows that shifts in exchange rates could produce changes in oil prices in 1990 comparable to the effects of gradually removing 5 million barrels per day from total oil production by 1990

world oil market simulation most of the models used to analyse the world oil market can be categorized under two broad headings i recursive simulation models and ii intertemporal optimization models 1 both types assume that opec operates as a cartel although the way in which opec behaviour is modelled varies

on and off the hot seat an analysis of entry into and out of university administration the authors investigate economists decisions to enter and exit department chair positions in research intensive economics departments of elite universities during the postwar era 1948 1989 they use the american economic association survey of members as well as phone surveys to determine which and at what point in their careers faculty assume administrative positions the theoretical model predicts and empirical results confirm that a faster rate of knowledge depreciation in an economist s field of study reduces the entry and exit rates for the chair position moreover among those who have exited the position of chair longer terms of past chair service and faster knowledge depreciation accelerate the timing of movements into upper level administration the findings suggest that administrators are to some extent made and not born and that the growing specialization and technical nature of many professions could affect who chooses administrative careers and at what point in their careers they choose

innovation and the international diffusion of environmentally responsive technology abstract new evidence is presented on environmental innovation and diffusion over the 1970s and 1980s at a global level a substantial amount of innovations occurred in the united states japan and germany the share of environmental patents in all patents varied between 0 6 and 3 and as such was higher than the corresponding share of pollution abatement expenditure in gdp japanese environmental innovation rates were consistently high certain plausible connections between environmental regulation and innovation also emerge across these three countries and over time innovation responded to pollution abatement expenditure an indicator of the severity of environmental regulations environmental patenting rates in developing countries were also high reaching 2 in many years in brazil developing country innovators obtained a non trivial number of patents most of which appear geared towards adapting imported technologies to local conditions however domestic innovation was only one path to new technologies imports of disembodied environmental technologies foreign patents registered in developing countries were substantial foreign patents were typically important or generic patents evidence also suggests that such patents protected intellectual property in equipment exported developing countries especially in east asia often chose to obtain technologies embodied in pollution abatement equipment

do academic salaries decline with seniority this article reexamines the negative seniority earnings relationship for academic economists the empirical results show that the anomalous negative seniority effect found in earlier academic market studies holds in the absence of direct measures of research productivity the negative effect however eventually disappears as more comprehensive measures of publishing citations and other productivity measures are included in the wage equation to control for the quantity and quality of faculty productivity faculty with greater seniority appear to be rewarded relatively less simply because many have been relatively less productive than their colleagues with less seniority at similar stages in their careers

citations in economics measurement uses and impacts i describe and compare sources of data on citations in economics and the statistics derived from them constructing data sets of the post publication citation histories of articles published in the top five journals in the 1970s and 2000s i examine distributions and life cycles of citations compare citation histories of articles in different subspecialties in economics and present evidence on the history and heterogeneity of those journals impacts and the marginal citation productivity of additional coauthors i use a new data set of the lifetime citation histories of over 1 000 economists from thirty universities to rank economics departments by various measures and demonstrate the importance of intra and interdepartmental heterogeneity in productivity throughout the discussion summarizes earlier work including the impacts of citations on salaries and nonmonetary rewards and how citations reflect judgments about research quality in economics and the importance of economic ideas

some factors affecting mobility in the labor market for academic economists this study examines the effects of publication geographic preferences and institutional preferences on the mobility of academic economists during the period 1955 69 using a sample of 3813 economists who published at least one article during this period the analysis indicates that publications do promote upward mobility but to a limited extent the number of publications rather than their quality promotes mobility but movement occurs primarily within well defined geographic regions the market for academic economists appears to be strongly segmented along geographic lines moves within geographic regions tend to be to departments of equal or lesser prestige than the department from which the individual has moved