explaining us immigration 1971 1998 abstract in this paper we develop and estimate a model to explain variations in immigration to the united states by source country since the early 1970s the explanatory variables include ratios to the united states of source country income and education as well as relative inequality in addition we incorporate the stock of previous immigrants and a variety of variables representing different dimensions of the immigration quotas set by policy we use the results to shed light on the impact of policy by simulating the effects of the key changes in immigration policy since the late 1970s we also examine the factors that influenced the composition of u s immigration by source region over the entire period

multiple experiments for the causal link between the quantity and quality of children this article presents evidence on the child quantity child quality trade off using quasi experimental variation due to twin births and preferences for a mixed sibling sex composition as well as ethnic differences in the effects of these variables our sample includes groups with very high fertility an innovation in our econometric approach is the juxtaposition of results from multiple instrumental variables strategies capturing the effects of fertility over different ranges for different sorts of people to increase precision we develop an estimator that combines different instrument sets across partially overlapping parity specific subsamples our results are remarkably consistent in showing no evidence of a quantity quality trade off

asset pricing with loss aversion using standard preferences for asset pricing has not been very successful to match asset price characteristics such as the risk free interest rate equity premium and the sharpe ratio to time series data behavioral nance has recently proposed more realistic preferences such as preferences with loss aversion to model asset pricing research has now started to explore the implications of behaviorally founded preferences for asset price characteristics encouraged by some studies of benartzki and thaler 1995 and barberis et al 2001 we study asset pricing with loss aversion in a production economy we here employ a stochastic growth model and use a stochastic version of a dynamic programming method with adaptive grid scheme to compute the above mentioned asset price characteristics of a model with loss aversion in preferences as our results show a model with loss aversion performs considerably better than pure consumption based asset pricing models

the impact of common native language and immigration on imports this paper sheds light on the impact of common native language and immigration both jointly and separately on imports common native language and immigrant networks stimulate bilateral trade relationships by reducing transaction costs through both market creation and the removal of information asymmetries whereas evidence on the importance of weak links for trade provides support for the first channel the need for additional immigrants does not decline if the second mechanism proves to be a driver of trade relationships for estimation of a causal and nonlinear effect of the two common native language and immigration on imports we employ a flexible identification strategy which allows common native language and migration to be endogenous the results suggest that both common native language and immigration raise imports but the impact of common native language is ever increasing with its level whereas that of immigration is of declining importance as its level increases

do potential migrants internalize migrant rights in oecd host societies this paper analyzes how countries provision of migrant rights affects potential migrants destination choice combining data on bilateral migration desires from over 140 origin countries and data on migrant rights in 38 mainly oecd destination countries over the period 2007 2014 we find that potential migrants tend to favour destinations that are more open to the inclusion of immigrants into their society in particular better access to and conditions on the labour market as well as access to nationality and to permanent residency significantly increase the perceived attractiveness of a destination country these results are robust across different specifications and hold for subsamples of origin countries as well as of destinations moreover some results vary across types of respondents educational opportunities for migrants for instance affect the migration desires of individuals aged 15 to 24 years but less so of individuals in other age groups

anomalies the equity premium puzzle stable url http links jstor org sici sici 0895 3309 28199724 2911 3a1 3c191 3aatepp 3e2 0 co 3b2 0the journal of economic perspectives is currently published by american economic association your use of the jstor archive indicates your acceptance of jstor s terms and conditions of use available athttp www jstor org about terms html jstor s terms and conditions of use provides in part that unless you have obtainedprior permission you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles and you may use content inthe jstor archive only for your personal non commercial use please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work publisher contact information may be obtained athttp www jstor org journals aea html each copy of any part of a jstor transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printedpage of such transmission the jstor archive is a trusted digital repository providing for long term preservation and access to leading academicjournals and scholarly literature from around the world the archive is supported by libraries scholarly societies publishers and foundations it is an initiative of jstor a not for profit organization with a mission to help the scholarly community takeadvantage of advances in technology for more information regarding jstor please contact support jstor org http www jstor orgfri aug 17 15 58 04 2007

measuring and explaining cross country immigration policies summary the intensified international migration pressures of the recent decades prompted many developed countries to revise their immigration regulations and increase border controls however the development of these reforms as well as their effectiveness in actually managing immigration flows remain poorly understood the main reason is that migration regulations are hard to quantify which has prevented the construction of a universal measure of migration policy to fill this gap in the literature we construct an indicator of the restrictiveness of immigration entry policy across countries as well as a more comprehensive indicator of migration policy that also accounts for staying requirements and regulations to foster integration specifically we estimate a bayesian state space model to combine all publicly available data sources that are informative on migration policy this methodology allows us to account for measurement errors in the underlying indicators and increases data availability without imputations or other ad hoc manipulations the indexes that we obtain are then used to disentangle the factors determining the toughness of migration regulations our empirical framework accounts for cross country correlation in migration policies and combines elements from the median voter and interest group approach we find strong evidence of spatial correlation in particular in entry restrictiveness yet substantially less in overall immigration policy this suggests that there still remains a substantive national margin in immigration policies in particular in the less visible segments such as staying conditions and integration rights we also find indications of a global trend of increasing restrictiveness in migration entry policy after the financial crisis of 2007 08

do professional traders exhibit myopic loss aversion an experimental analysis two behavioral concepts loss aversion and mental accounting have been combined to provide a theoretical explanation of the equity premium puzzle recent experimental evidence supports the theory as students behavior has been found to be consistent with myopic loss aversion mla yet much like certain anomalies in the realm of riskless decision making these behavioral tendencies may be attenuated among professionals using traders recruited from the cbot we do indeed find behavioral differences between professionals and students but rather than discovering that the anomaly is muted we find that traders exhibit behavior consistent with mla to a greater extent than students

decision support for retirement portfolio management overcoming myopic loss aversion via technology design as firms continue to abandon pensions in favor of employee managed retirement plans tremendous demands are being placed on the decision making proficiency of future retirees as reflected in the equity premium puzzle individual investors tend to hold overly conservative portfolios that provide meager payoffs over time consequently there is growing concern that the vast majority of retirement accounts might be insufficiently funded when employees reach retirement given that most retirement plans can now be managed online a potential solution lies in designing a web based decision support system dss that helps future retirees make more profitable portfolio management decisions this paper reports the results of a study in which 159 retirement plan participants were asked to use an experimental website to manage a portfolio of retirement investments over a simulated 30 year period using a psychological approach toward designing the dss myopic loss aversion is put forth as a theoretical explanation for the psychological mechanisms that encourage investors to hold overly conservative portfolios armed with this knowledge three design features information horizon system restrictiveness and decisional guidance are implemented as part of an overarching design strategy targeted at increasing investors willingness to take calculated risks the results indicate that investor conservatism diminishes when the dss presents prospective probabilities and payoffs over long time horizons in contrast short term information horizons constitute a major stumbling block for investors however when confronted with short term information horizons risk aversion can be successfully counteracted by configuring a dss to either restrict the frequency of decisions or to suggest a relatively aggressive portfolio allocation these findings carry important implications for theory and practice

power to the principals an experimental look at shareholder say on pay voting with recent legislation mandating that publicly traded corporations submit their ceos compensation for a nonbinding shareholder vote a systematic understanding of shareholder preferences has neve

migration and institutions exit and voice from abroad a rapidly growing body of research examines the relationship between migration and institutions three strands of studies can be distinguished some studies focused on the role of domestic and foreign institutions in the decision to migrate others were interested by the impact of migration on institutional reforms in migrants countries of origin while the effect of migration on destination countries is largely documented recent studies focus on how migrants affect social and informal institutions in the destination countries this survey puts together these three strands of literature with three purposes first we offer a short definition and synthetic typology of institutions which provide a guide to understand several studies summarized and their results second our analysis is presented following the analytic framework exit voice and loyalty of hirschman in order to highlight the brain grain phenomenon for developing countries from an institutional point of view third we review the limited existing work on the very timely topic whether migrants are harmful or not to institutions in the host countries

multilateral resistance to migration the rate of migration observed between two countries does not depend solely on their relative attractiveness but also on the one of alternative destinations following the trade literature we term the influence exerted by other destinations on bilateral flows as multilateral resistance to migration and we show how it can be accounted for when estimating the determinants of migration rates in the context of a general individual random utility maximization model we propose the use of the common correlated effects estimator pesaran 2006 and apply it to high frequency data on the spanish immigration boom between 1997 and 2009 compared to more restrictive estimation strategies developed in the literature the bias goes in the expected direction we find a smaller effect of gdp per capita and a larger effect of migration policies on bilateral rates

the electoral consequences of the washington consensus this paper assesses how electoral outcomes in both presidential and legislative elections in latin america have been affected by the adoption of economic policies that seek to improve macroeconomic stability and facilitate the functioning of markets the database includes 17 latin american countries for the period 1985 2002 and a total of 66 presidential and 81 legislative elections the set of testable hypotheses is derived from a review of the literature and is structured around the hypothesis of economic voting it is found that i the incumbent s party is rewarded for reductions in the rate of inflation and to a lesser extent for increases in the rate of growth ii the more fragmented or ideologically polarized the party system the higher the electoral rewards of reducing the inflation rate or raising the economic growth rate iii voters care not only about economic outcomes but also about some of the policies adopted while the electorate seems blind to macroeconomic policies such as fiscal or exchange rate policies it is averse to pro market policies irrespective of their effects on growth or inflation and iv the electorate is more tolerant of pro market reforms when the incumbent s party has a more market oriented ideology these results suggest that reforming parties have paid a hefty price for the adoption of pro market reforms except when such reforms have been undertaken in conjunction with stabilization policies in high inflation economies

the effect of myopia and loss aversion on risk taking an experimental test myopic loss aversion is the combination of a greater sensitivity to losses than to gains and a tendency to evaluate outcomes frequently two implications of myopic loss aversion are tested experimentally 1 investors who display myopic loss aversion will be more willing to accept risks if they evaluate their investments less often 2 if all payoffs are increased enough to eliminate losses investors will accept more risk in a task in which investors learn from experience both predictions are supported the investors who got the most frequent feedback and thus the most information took the least risk and earned the least money language en

applied welfare economics with discrete choice models economists have been paying increasing attention to the study of situations in which consumers face a discrete rather than a continuous set of choices such models are potentially very important in evaluating the impact of government programs upon consumer welfare but very little has been said in general regarding the tools of applied welfare economics indiscrete choice situations this paper shows how the conventional methods of applied welfare economics can be modified to handle such cases it focuses on the computation of the excess burden of taxation and the evaluation of quality change the results are applied to stochastic utility models including the popular cases of probit and logit analysis throughout the emphasis is on providing rigorous guidelines for carrying out applied work this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

myopic loss aversion and stock investments an empirical study of private investors abstract myopic loss aversion was suggested by benartzi and thaler 1995 as an explanation for the equity premium puzzle its main prediction is that loss averse investors who evaluate their investment performance too frequently and therefore often observe small losses on their stock portfolios would invest too little in equity we investigate the link between myopic loss aversion and actual investment decisions of individual investors using survey data our results are consistent with the predictions of benartzi and thaler higher myopic loss aversion is associated with lower stock investment as a share of total assets investors tend to evaluate their stock portfolio performance too often which contributes to the prevalence of myopic loss aversion the effect of myopia is most apparent when investors both evaluate their portfolios frequently and trade stocks regularly

conditional choice probability estimation of dynamic discrete choice models with unobserved heterogeneity we adapt the expectation maximization algorithm to incorporate unobserved heterogeneity into conditional choice probability ccp estimators of dynamic discrete choice problems the unobserved heterogeneity can be time invariant or follow a markov chain by developing a class of problems where the difference in future value terms depends on a few conditional choice probabilities we extend the class of dynamic optimization problems where ccp estimators provide a computationally cheap alternative to full solution methods monte carlo results confirm that our algorithms perform quite well both in terms of computational time and in the precision of the parameter estimates

individual preferences monetary gambles and stock market participation a case for narrow framing we argue that narrow framing whereby an agent who is offered a new gamble evaluates that gamble in isolation may be a more important feature of decision making than previously realized our starting point is the evidence that people are often averse to a small independent gamble even when the gamble is actuarially favorable we find that a surprisingly wide range of utility functions including many nonexpected utility specifications have trouble explaining this evidence but that this difficulty can be overcome by allowing for narrow framing our analysis makes predictions as to what kinds of preferences can most easily address the stock market participation puzzle

selection and network effects migration flows into oecd countries 1990 2000 abstract this paper presents empirical evidence on immigration flows into the oecd countries during the period 1990 2000 our results indicate that network effects are strong but vary between different groups of welfare states and between countries according to the type of immigration policy being applied network effects seem to be less important in the nordic countries which also seem to attract immigrants from the lowest income level source countries we do not find clear evidence that selection effects measured by migration flows being sensitive to differences in public social expenditures have had a major influence on the observed migration patterns until now this may partly be explained by restrictive migration policies which may have dampened the potential selection effects

an experiment on risk taking and evaluation periods does the period over which individuals evaluate outcomes influence their investment in risky assets results from this study show that the more frequently returns are evaluated the more risk averse investors will be the results are in line with the behavioral hypothesis of myopic loss aversion which assumes that people are myopic in evaluating outcomes over time and are more sensitive to losses than to gains the results have relevance for the equity premium puzzle and also for the marketing strategies of fund managers

crossing the border self selection earnings and individual migration decisions many empirical studies on the determinants of international migration flows rely exclusively on macro data and do not account for migrants self selection we analyze a very interesting episode in international migration for which we are able to gather individual level data covering all relevant countries namely the exodus of ecuadorians to spain and the us in the aftermath of the economic collapse of 1999 specifically we produce selection corrected predictions of counterfactual individual earnings and use them to estimate a discrete choice migration equation that allows for correlated errors across destinations and a rich structure of migration costs we find that earnings significantly shape individual migration decisions even in an episode in which ecuadorians mostly chose spain where earnings were lower than in the us and they contribute to explaining the observed composition of migration flows moreover our estimates show that changes in earnings at a particular destination have a larger effect on destination choice conditional on migration than on the scale of migration

on the trade impact of nominal exchange rate volatility what is the effect of nominal exchange rate variability on trade i argue that the methods conventionally used to answer this perennial question are plagued by a variety of sources of systematic bias i propose a novel approach that simultaneously addresses all of these biases and present new estimates from a broad sample of countries from 1970 to 1997 the estimates indicate that nominal exchange rate variability has no significant impact on trade flows

how borrowing constraints hinder migration theoretical insights from a random utility maximization model we provide a theoretical framework to analyze how financial constraints hinder migration introducing wealth heterogeneity and borrowing constraints into a random utility maximization model of migration we find evidence of multilateral resistance to migration stemming from borrowing constraints we calibrate the model on 22 european countries and we show that omitting the constraints biases upward the estimation of bilateral migration rates we then simulate an increase in the bilateral cost of migration to the united kingdom we find that omitting the constraints biases downward the change entailed by the cost increase in the bilateral rates of migration to all destinations

a practitioners guide to gravity models of international migration the use of bilateral data for the analysis of international migration is at the same time a blessing and a curse it is a blessing because the dyadic dimension of the data allows researchers to address a number of previously unanswered questions but it is also a curse for the various analytical challenges it gives rise to this paper presents the theoretical foundations of the estimation of gravity models of international migration and the main difficulties that have to be tackled in the econometric analysis such as the nature of migration data how to account for multilateral resistance to migration or endogeneity we also review some empirical evidence that has considered these issues

migration and institutions evidence from internal eu mobility despite the formal achievement of the free movement of labour within the eu the institutional characteristics of the labour markets of the member states may influence european mobility the paper seeks empirical evidence of the relationship between labour market institutions and intra eu migrations estimating a gravity model for bilateral migration for the period 2001 11 the results indicate that trade union density negatively correlates with the size of bilateral migrations destinations with relatively high union density are associated with lower migration inflows since these countries tend to have a relatively flat earnings distribution it is also investigated whether their earnings structure reduces their attractiveness as destinations hindering the access to their labour market even if a dependence between the earnings dispersion and migrations is found trade union density remains the main driver of migration patterns clear effects of employment protection on eu mobility are not found

immigrant selection in the oecd in this paper we examine the determinants of educational selectivity in immigration using immigrant stock data for 70 source countries and 21 oecd destination countries as observed in the year 2000 2001 we develop a variant of the roy model to estimate the determinants of educational selectivity two key findings emerge first the effect of the skill premium which is at the core of the roy model can be observed only after we take into account the poverty constraints operating in the source countries second cultural similarities colonial legacies and physical distance are often more important determinants of educational selectivity than wage incentives or selective immigration policy

does commitment or feedback influence myopic loss aversion an experimental analysis empirical research has shown that a lower feedback frequency combined with a longer bind ing period decreases myopia and thereby increases the willingness to invest into a risky asset in an experimental study we disentangle the intertwined manipulation of feedback frequency and binding period to analyze how both variables alone contribute to the change in myopia and how they interact we find a strong effect for the length of commitment a much less pro nounced effect for the feedback frequency and a strong interaction between both variables the results have important implications for real world intertemporal decision making

determinants of international student migration this paper considers what factors determine the migration of overseas students when students cross borders for higher education we utilise a gravity model for international student mobility and derive estimates for a sample of 18 countries of destination and 38 countries of origin over the period 2005 11 our results confirm that geographical distance and the presence of a common language are powerful in explaining bilateral student flows our most interesting finding is that time zone differences have a statistically significant and economically large effect in determining international student flows

climatic factors as determinants of international migration we examine environmental change as a potential determinant of international migration we distinguish between unexpected short run factors captured by natural disasters as well as long run climate change and climate variability captured by deviations and volatilities of temperatures and rainfall from and around their long run averages starting from a simple neo classical model we use a panel dataset of bilateral migration flows for the period 1960 2000 that allows us to control for numerous time varying and time invariant factors we find no direct impact of climatic change on international migration across our entire sample these results are robust when conditioning on characteristics of origin countries as well as when further considering migrants returning home and the potential endogeneity of our network variable in contrast there is evidence of indirect effects of environmental factors going through wages we further find strong evidence that natural disasters beget greater flows of migrants to urban environs

income maximization and the selection and sorting of international migrants abstract two prominent features of international labor movements are that the more educated are more likely to emigrate positive selection and more educated migrants are more likely to settle in destination countries with high rewards to skill positive sorting using data on emigrant stocks by schooling level and source country in oecd destinations we find that a simple model of income maximization can account for both phenomena results on selection show that migrants for a source destination pair are more educated relative to non migrants the larger is the absolute skill related difference in earnings between the destination country and the source results on sorting indicate that the relative stock of more educated migrants in a destination is increasing in the absolute earnings difference between high and low skilled workers we use our framework to compare alternative specifications of international migration estimate the magnitude of migration costs by source destination pair and assess the contribution of wage differences to how migrants sort themselves across destination countries

is roger federer more loss averse than serena williams using data from the high stakes 2013 dubai professional tennis tournament we find that compared with a tied score i male players have a higher serve speed and thus exhibit more effort when behind in score and their serve speeds get less sensitive to losses or gains when score difference gets too large and ii female players do not change their serve speed when behind while serving slower when ahead thus male players comply more with prospect theory exhibiting more loss aversion and reflection effect our results are robust to controlling for player fixed effects and characteristics with player random effects

does money illusion matter in intertemporal decision making abstract to examine the degree to which price fluctuations affect how individuals approach an intertemporal decision making problem we conduct a laboratory experiment in which subjects spend their savings to purchase only one commodity over 20 periods in the control treatment the commodity price is constant across all periods in the small large price fluctuation treatment the price rate of change is always 1 20 regardless of the treatment the commodity price and subjects savings change at the same rate over time therefore the optimal amount of consumption is the same in all three treatments our main findings are twofold first the magnitude of misconsumption i e the deviation from optimal consumption is significantly high with the large price fluctuation treatment being the highest followed by the small price fluctuation treatment and then the control treatment second regardless of the presence of price fluctuations subjects exhibit underconsumption oversaving behavior and price fluctuations strengthen this tendency

why isn t growth making us happier utility on the hedonic treadmill abstract a preference structure is constructed grounded in psychological evidence with well being a function of the consumption level and the growth of the variety of goods consumed such preferences are analyzed in an endogenous variety growth model the implications are consistent with the increase in income and the variety of goods consumed in developed economies in the post war period that have not been accompanied by an increase in reported well being moreover the results suggest a connection between the stagnancy of reported well being and diminishing returns in technological change despite an increase in the variety of goods available over time

narrow bracketing and dominated choices an experiment by tversky and kahneman 1981 illustrates that people s tendency to evaluate risky decisions separately can lead them to choose combinations of choices that are first order stochastically dominated by other available combinations we investigate the generality of this effect both theoretically and experimentally we show that for any decisionmaker who does not have constant absolute risk averse preferences and who evaluates her decisions one by one there exists a simple pair of independent binary decisions where the decisionmaker will make a dominated combination of choices we also characterize as a function of a person s preferences the amount of money that she can lose due to a single mistake of this kind the theory is accompanied by both a real stakes laboratory experiment and a large sample survey from the general u s population replicating tversky and kahneman s original experiment where decisionmakers with prototypical prospect theory preferences will choose a dominated combination we find that 28 of the participants do so in the survey we ask the respondents about several hypothetical large stakes choices and find higher proportions of dominated choice combinations a statistical model that estimates preferences from the survey results is best fit by assuming people have utility functions that are close to prospect theory value functions and that about 83 of people bracket narrowly none of these results varies strongly with the personal characteristics of participants we also demonstrate directly that dominated choices are driven by narrow bracketing when we eliminate the possibility of narrow bracketing by using a combined presentation of the decisions the dominated choices are eliminated in the laboratory experiment and are greatly reduced in the survey

why has the introduction of natural gas vehicles failed in germany lessons on the role of market failure in markets for alternative fuel vehicles despite private investments exceeding two billion euros and tax incentives of more than 500 million euros the market share of natural gas vehicles ngvs in germany has lagged far behind expectations and behind market developments in other countries with total cost of ownership being on average lower for ngvs than for gasoline and diesel vehicles this raises the question of the existence of market failure in the german ngv market we use a case study approach where we combine quantitative data with insights from a multi industry expert panel and in depth interviews with experts from industry government and civil society in order to examine whether and how different types of market failure contribute to the status quo in the german market for ngvs we conclude that coordination failure in complementary markets an artificially created monopoly of service stations at motorways imperfect information bounded consumer rationality and principle agent problems are the most prominent market failures inhibiting the development of a functioning market for ngvs our results are instructive for the design of effective public policies and investor strategies aiming to create markets for alternative fuel vehicles

an index of loss aversion to a considerable extent risk aversion as it is commonly observed is caused by loss aversion several indexes of loss aversion have been proposed in the literature the one proposed in this paper leads to a clear decomposition of risk attitude into three distinct components basic utility probability weighting and loss aversion the index is independent of the unit of payment the main theorem shows how the indexes of different decision makers can be compared through observed choices

diaspora growth and aggregate remittances an inverted u relationship this paper presents a model in which remittances stem from a decision made jointly by a family coalition of multiple migrants and non migrants allowing two alternative interpretations migrants a

networks in the modern economy mexican migrants in the u s labor market this paper attempts to identify job networks among mexican migrants in the u s labor market the empirical analysis uses data on migration patterns and labor market outcomes based on a sample of individuals belonging to multiple origin communities in mexico over a long period of time each community s network is measured by the proportion of the sampled individuals who are located at the destination the united states in any year we verify that the same individual is more likely to be employed and to hold a higher paying nonagricultural job when his network is exogenously larger by including individual fixed effects in the employment and occupation regressions and by using rainfall in the origin community as an instrument for the size of the network at the destination

understanding the international mobility of chinese temporary workers using unique panel data on the temporary movement of chinese workers to 191 economies during 1992 2015 i investigate the patterns and determinants of labour mobility in the services trade i estimate a gravity model of labour mobility in two categories namely overseas labour services and overseas contracted projects i find that distance proxy for migration costs and income are not the most important determinants of the latter for overseas contracted projects the dispatch of workers is not driven by their pure economic aims but by the chinese government s policies and strategies such as its overseas project promotion policy furthermore i employ the difference in differences estimation method to investigate the impact of this policy upon labour mobility the results show that the policy of promoting overseas contracted projects has causal and positive effects on labour mobility in construction related sectors

the impact of foreign aid on migration revisited abstract while policymakers hope to stem migration flows by giving foreign aid existing empirical evidence points in the opposite direction by loosening budget constraints aid tends to encourage people to emigrate in this paper we revisit the aid migration link using a substantially extended and adjusted econometric approach based on a gravity model of international migration in contrast to the previous literature we obtain evidence of a negative relationship between the total aid a country receives and emigration rates this even holds for the poorer part of recipient countries which suggests that the budgetary constraint channel does not play a significant role in shaping migration decisions the most plausible explanation for these contrasting results is that unlike in previous studies we use migrant flows rather than migrant stocks as the dependent variable in substantive terms the limited importance of the budgetary constraint channel might reflect that positive welfare effects of foreign aid tend to manifest themselves in improved public services for the poor rather than higher incomes which is in line with the reorientation of foreign aid towards social sectors under the millennium development goals

reference dependent consumption plans we develop a rational dynamic model in which people are loss averse over changes in beliefs about present and future consumption because changes in wealth are news about future consumption preferences over money are reference dependent if news resonates more when about imminent consump tion than when about future consumption a decision maker might to generate pleasant surprises overconsume early relative to the optimal committed plan increase immediate consumption following surprise wealth increases and delay decreasing consumption following surprise losses since higher wealth mitigates the effect of bad news people exhibit an unambiguous first order precautionary savings motive

can losing lead to winning individuals groups and teams who are behind their opponents in competition tend to be more likely to lose in contrast we show that through increasing motivation being slightly behind can actually increase success analysis of more than 18 000 professional basketball games illustrates that being slightly behind at halftime leads to a discontinuous increase in winning percentage teams behind by a point at halftime for example actually win more often than teams ahead by one or approximately six percentage points more often than expected this psychological effect is roughly half the size of the proverbial home team advantage analysis of more than 45 000 collegiate basketball games finds consistent though smaller results experiments corroborate the field data and generalize their findings providing direct causal evidence that being slightly behind increases effort and casting doubt on alternative explanations for the results taken together these findings illustrate that losing can sometimes lead to winning this paper was accepted by peter wakker decision analysis

the elasticity of the migrant labour supply evidence from temporary filipino migrants the effect of immigration on host and origin countries is mediated by the way migrants take their labour supply decisions we propose a simple way of integrating the traditional random utility maximisation model used to analyse location decisions with a classical labour demand function at destination our setup allows us to estimate a general upper bound on the elasticity of the migrant labour supply that we take to the data using the evolution of the numbers and wages of temporary overseas filipino workers between 1992 and 2009 to different destinations we find that the migrant labour supply elasticity can be very large temporary migrants are very reactive to economic conditions in their potential destinations