the impact of population on co2 emissions evidence from european countries this paper analyses the impact of population growth on co2 emissions in european union countries traditionally researchers have assumed a unitary elasticity of emissions with respect to population growth in this study population is treated as a predictor in the model instead of being included as part of the dependent variable per capita emissions thus relaxing the above mentioned assumption of unitary elasticity we also contribute to the existing literature by taking into account the presence of heterogeneity in the sample and considering a dynamic specification the sample covers the period 1975 1999 for the current european union members our results show that the impact of population growth on emissions is more than proportional for recent accession countries whereas for old eu members the elasticity is lower than unity and non significant when the properties of the time series and the dynamics are correctly specified the different impact of population change on co2 emissions for the current eu members should therefore be taken into account in future discussions of climate change policies within the eu

support systems for the diffusion of renewable energy technologies an investor perspective concern over climate change impacts and the projected depletion of fossil fuels has urged more governments to adopt policies that stimulate the diffusion of renewable energy technologies ret with an increasingly diverse suite of support instruments the question emerges as to which instruments or combinations are able to achieve faster more substantial diffusion results although various support instruments were extensively addressed in policy studies there is still no consensus this is partly because many policy studies take a policy maker approach in comparing support instruments leaving relationships between policy design and policy results as a black box this paper proposes an investor oriented perspective to analyze the diffusion potential of support systems for ret the main argument is that it is not the type of support instrument but rather its risk profitability characteristics that influence investor behavior and the rate of diffusion the two instruments most frequently discussed and compared are the feed in tariff and the quota model the analysis in this paper concludes that policy design is crucial while often feed in tariffs are applauded and quota system feared feed in tariffs may also bring about disappointing diffusion results when poorly designed while quota systems may be also conceived as attractive instruments for independent power producers

economic growth and pollutant emissions in tunisia an empirical analysis of the environmental kuznets curve abstract this paper investigates the relationship between economic growth and pollutant emissions for a small and open developing country tunisia during the period 1961 2004 the investigation is made on the basis of the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis using time series data and cointegration analysis carbon dioxide co 2 and sulfur dioxide so 2 are used as the environmental indicators and gdp as the economic indicator our results show that there is a long run cointegrating relationship between the per capita emissions of two pollutants and the per capita gdp an inverted u relationship between so 2 emissions and gdp has been found with income turning point approximately equals to 1200 constant 2000 prices or to 3700 in ppp constant 2000 prices however a monotonically increasing relationship with gdp is found more appropriate for co 2 emissions furthermore the causality results show that the relationship between income and pollution in tunisia is one of unidirectional causality with income causing environmental changes and not vice versa both in the short run and long run this implies that an emission reduction policies and more investment in pollution abatement expense will not hurt economic growth it could be a feasible policy tool for tunisia to achieve its sustainable growth in the long run

energy consumption carbon emissions and economic growth in saudi arabia an aggregate and disaggregate analysis the objective of this study is to examine the relationship among economic growth carbon emissions and energy consumption at the aggregate and disaggregate levels for the aggregate energy consumption model we use total energy consumption per capita and co2 emissions per capita based on the total energy consumption for the disaggregate analysis we used oil gas and electricity consumption models along with their respective co2 emissions the long term income elasticities of carbon emissions in three of the four models are positive and higher than their estimated short term income elasticities these results suggest that carbon emissions increase with the increase in per capita income which supports the belief that there is a monotonically increasing relationship between per capita carbon emissions and per capita income for the aggregate model and for the oil and electricity consumption models the long and short term income elasticities of carbon emissions are negative for the gas consumption model this result indicates that if the saudi arabian economy switched from oil to gas consumption then an increase in per capita income would reduce carbon emissions the results also suggest that electricity is less polluting than other sources of energy

structural breaks and garch models of exchange rate volatility we investigate the empirical relevance of structural breaks for garch models of exchange rate volatility using both in sample and out of sample tests we find significant evidence of structural breaks in the unconditional variance of seven of eight us dollar exchange rate return series over the 1980 2005 period implying unstable garch processes for these exchange rates and garch 1 1 parameter estimates often vary substantially across the subsamples defined by the structural breaks we also find that it almost always pays to allow for structural breaks when forecasting exchange rate return volatility in real time combining forecasts from different models that accommodate structural breaks in volatility in various ways appears to offer a reliable method for improving volatility forecast accuracy given the uncertainty surrounding the timing and size of the structural breaks copyright 2008 john wiley sons ltd

the relationship between gdp and electricity consumption in 10 asian countries the purpose of this study is to estimate the relationships between gdp and electricity consumption in 10 newly industrializing and developing asian countries using both single data sets and panel data procedures the empirical results from single data set indicate that the causality directions in the 10 asian countries are mixed while there is a uni directional short run causality running from economic growth to electricity consumption and a bi directional long run causality between electricity consumption and economic growth if the panel data procedure is implemented these empirical findings imply that electricity conservation policies through both rationalizing the electricity supply efficiency improvement to avoid the wastage of electricity and managing demand side to reduce the electricity consumption without affecting the end user benefits could be initiated without adverse effect on economic growth the findings on the long run relationship indicate that a sufficiently large supply of electricity can ensure that a higher level of economic growth

beyond optimal city size an evaluation of alternative urban growth patterns the aim of the paper is to present a critical view of theoretical works on city size we begin with the consideration that during the 1960s and 1970s the question of optimal city size tended to b

does the quality of institutions limit the mena s integration in the world economy using a large sample of countries over the 1990s this paper examines the extent to which institutions functioning disables a greater participation of the middle east and north africa mena in the world economy it focuses on the impact on manufactured exports and fdi attractiveness and considers a broad index of political risk as well as indices targeted toward specific aspects of governance corruption government effectiveness and the rule of law the results are robust to different econometric approaches and lend strong support to the hypothesis that the functioning of institutions may disable the participation of mena countries in the world economy they suggest that the impact of an improvement in the quality of institutions may result in a sensitive increase of fdi inflows and manufactured exports that increase is comparable to the one resulting from liberalisation policies hence although institutional reforms can take time they deserve the necessary efforts given their outcomes as compared to other reforms

an econometric study of co2 emissions energy consumption income and foreign trade in turkey abstract this study attempts to empirically examine the dynamic causal relationships between carbon emissions energy consumption income and foreign trade in the case of turkey using the time series data for the period 1960 2005 this research tests the interrelationship between the variables using the bounds testing to cointegration procedure the bounds test results indicate that there exist two forms of long run relationships between the variables in the case of first form of long run relationship carbon emissions are determined by energy consumption income and foreign trade in the case of second long run relationship income is determined by carbon emissions energy consumption and foreign trade an augmented form of granger causality analysis is conducted amongst the variables the long run relationship of co2 emissions energy consumption income and foreign trade equation is also checked for the parameter stability the empirical results suggest that income is the most significant variable in explaining the carbon emissions in turkey which is followed by energy consumption and foreign trade moreover there exists a stable carbon emissions function the results also provide important policy recommendations

is there an ekc between economic growth and smog pollution in china new evidence from semiparametric spatial autoregressive models abstract although china has achieved rapid economic growth it suffers from severe smog conditions determining how to promote cleaner production and environmental sustainability is of great significance in clarifying the relationship between income and pollutants within an extension of the stochastic impacts by regression on population affluence and technology stirpat framework the effects of economic growth on pm2 5 contamination are explicitly investigated based on a recent large sample of 249 chinese cities in 2015 from a nonlinear spatial perspective this study marks the first attempt at comprehensively exploring the nexus between the selected variables and pm2 5 emissions using semiparametric spatial autoregressive models which overcome the misspecification issues of conventional parametric models to avoid the limitations of a single method this study also applies different estimation techniques such as the spatial lag model slm the spatial autoregressive model with spatial autoregressive disturbances sarar two stage least squares regression 2slsr quantile regression qr and nonparametric regression npr the results reveal that pm2 5 pollutants show strong positive characteristics of spatial spillover the results also suggest that there is a significant inverted u shaped relationship between economic growth and pm2 5 concentrations which confirms the environmental kuznets curve ekc hypothesis additionally the empirical findings highlight the influence that the population density industrialization urbanization and traffic development factors have on increasing pm2 5 emissions in contrast technological innovation and green coverage do not play important roles in reducing pm2 5 concentrations the distribution of pm2 5 concentrations displays apparent geographical features to provide an in depth understanding of these impacts marginal analysis is performed to distinguish the local and neighbouring effects of determinants on pm2 5 pollution

simulating price patterns for tradable green certificates to promote electricity generation from wind abstract this article uses computer simulation to anticipate the price dynamics in a market for tradable green certificates tgcs these markets have been used in europe to promote generation of electricity from renewable resources like wind similar markets have been proposed in the united states of america usa where the certificates are called renewable energy credits recs the certificates are issued to the generating companies for each megawatt hour of renewable electricity generation the companies may sell the certificates in a market and the revenues from certificate sales provide an extra incentive to invest in new generating capacity proponents argue that this market based incentive can be designed to support government mandates for a growing fraction of electricity generation from renewable sources in the usa these mandates are set by the states and are known as renewable portfolio standards rps we simulate the price dynamics of a market designed to support an aggressive mandate for wind generation in the northwestern usa the simulations show that the certificate price climbs rapidly to the cap in the early years after the market opens investors then react to these high prices with construction of new wind capacity after a few years wind generation meets and then exceeds the requirement we show that this pattern appears again and again when the simulations are repeated with wide variations in the estimates of behavioral parameters we use the model to study the impact of different trading strategies by the wind companies and by the distribution companies we also study the simulated market response if the usa adopts the carbon allowance market envisioned in the climate stewardship act the article concludes with recommendations for policy makers involved in tgc market design

an evaluation of volatility forecasting techniques the existing literature contains conflicting evidence regarding the relative quality of stock market volatility forecasts evidence can be found supporting the superiority of relatively complex models including arch class models while there is also evidence supporting the superiority of more simple alternatives these inconsistencies are of particular concern because of the use of and reliance on volatility forecasts in key economic decision making and analysis and in asset option pricing this paper employs daily australian data to examine this issue the results suggest that the arch class of models and a simple regression model provide superior forecasts of volatility however the various model rankings are shown to be sensitive to the error statistic used to assess the accuracy of the forecasts nevertheless a clear message is that volatility forecasting is a notoriously difficult task

an econometric analysis of emission allowance prices knowledge of the statistical distribution of the prices of emission allowances and their forecastability are crucial in constructing among other things purchasing and risk management strategies in the emissions constrained markets this paper analyzes the two emission permits markets co2 in europe and so2 in the us and investigates a model for dealing with the unique stylized facts of this type of data its effectiveness in terms of model fit and out of sample value at risk forecasting as compared to models commonly used in risk forecasting contexts is demonstrated

does economic integration damage or benefit the environment africa s experience abstract the leaders of african nations have committed to the establishment of the continental free trade area cfta over the coming years improved links among the african nations via increased intra regional trade have been considered as an essential mechanism to produce desired growth run overs and to support regional economic improvement however remarkable theoretical and empirical evidence has shown that increased trade might damage the environment and therefore may hinder the effort towards sustainable development and poverty reduction on the continent the present paper seeks to investigate and test the impact of intra africa trade using two measurements of environmental pollutants namely co2 and mp10 whilst integrating economic growth and energy consumption the study used a panel dataset regarding 46 african countries over the period 1990 2017 to carry out the empirical analysis the latest panel estimation techniques were employed more specifically and for the urbaneness purpose we employed a parametric technique which is dynamic ols and a non parametric approach which is fmols the results of both methods suggested that intra africa trade improved environmental quality on the continent in addition the results confirmed the presence of the environmental kuznets curve ekc hypothesis the findings also indicated that whilst the consumption of energy played a vital role in the deterioration of the environment its impact remained marginal overall the results implied that intra regional trade and the environment quality were mutually supportive in africa

global economic activity and crude oil prices a cointegration analysis abstract this paper empirically investigates the cointegrating relationship between crude oil prices and global economic activity the kilian economic index is used as an indicator of global economic activity based on a supply demand framework and the cointegration theory we find that real futures prices of crude oil are cointegrated with the kilian economic index and a trade weighted us dollar index and crude oil prices are influenced significantly by fluctuations in the kilian economic index through both long run equilibrium conditions and short run impacts we also develop an empirically stable data coherent and single equation error correction model ecm which has sensible economic properties empirical results based on the ecm show that the adjustment implied by a permanent change in the kilian economic index is a relatively drawn out process

competitive auction mechanisms for the promotion renewable energy technologies the case of the 50 mw photovoltaics projects in cyprus abstract there are a range of policy frameworks and support mechanisms to promote the penetration of renewable energy technologies into the energy mix assembled by the governments and regulatory bodies around the world the three dominant and most common support schemes that have also been implemented within the eu and proven successful in the past include the competitive auctions the feed in tariff scheme fit and tradable green certificates tgcs this study reviews the use of the competitive auction mechanism for the promotion of power generation from renewable energy technologies the process of the specific policy instrument as well as its pros and cons are introduced successful and failed case studies from countries that have already incorporated this mechanism into their renewable energy technologies development policies are also presented among these cases is the cyprus auction procurement for the licensing of 50 mw of photovoltaic power plants conducted in january 2013 which is thoroughly elaborated in this paper the timeline of the bids is presented and the auction winner strategy is tracked and examined a discussion is also presented on the feasibility of the awarded projects eventually the entire auction procurement procedure is evaluated to expose the defects of the mechanism and to offer some recommendations for the viability of the process

urbanization and co2 emissions a semi parametric panel data analysis this paper investigates the relationship between urbanization and co2 emissions in a sample of 20 emerging countries over the period 1992 2008 using the semi parametric panel data model with fixed effects proposed by baltagi and li 2002 we find little evidence in support of an inverted u curve and thus the kuznets hypothesis is not confirmed by our analysis our findings shed new light on the urbanization co2 emissions nexus

co2 emissions energy consumption trade and income a comparative analysis of china and india in order to prevent the destabilisation of the earth s biosphere co2 emissions must be reduced quickly and significantly the causes of co2 emissions by individual countries need to be apprehended in order to understand the processes required for reducing emissions around the globe china and india are the two largest transitional countries and growing economies but are in two entirely different categories in terms of structural changes in growth trade and energy use co2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels have significantly increased in the recent past this paper compares china and india using the bounds testing approach to cointegration and the ardl methodology to test the long and short run relationships between growth trade energy use and endogenously determined structural breaks the co2 emissions in china were influenced by per capita income structural changes and energy consumption a similar causal connection cannot be established for india with regard to structural changes and co2 emissions because india s informal economy is much larger than china s india possesses an extraordinarily large number of micro enterprises that are low energy consumers and not competitive enough to reach international markets understanding these contrasting scenarios is prerequisite to reaching an international agreement on climate change affecting these two countries

price drivers and structural breaks in european carbon prices 2005 2007 this article aims at characterizing the daily price fundamentals of european union allowances euas traded since 2005 as part of the emissions trading scheme ets the presence of two structural changes on april 2006 following the disclosure of 2005 verified emissions and on october 2006 following the european commission announcement of stricter phase ii allocation allows to isolate distinct fundamentals evolving overtime the results extend previous literature by showing that eua spot prices react not only to energy prices with forecast errors but also to unanticipated temperatures changes during colder events besides the sub period decomposition of the pilot phase gives a better grasp of institutional and market events that drive allowance price changes

assessing and managing regulatory risk in renewable energy contrasts between canada and the united states abstact a challenge for energy firms when considering new investments is to balance expected financial gains against potential risks however while investment opportunities in different jurisdictions are often straightforward to identify the policy or regulatory risks for investors are more difficult to accurately ascertain here i provide a novel conceptual framework for how firms can assess regulatory risk that focuses on the institutional processes governing policy making risks are lower and policies will subsequently be more stable in jurisdictions where regulatory agencies have greater autonomy from politicians and where policies are formulated through more rigid policy making processes the contrasting development patterns of renewable energy policies in ontario and texas offer support for the framework i further develop strategies for how firms can successfully manage regulatory risks in different types of environment

an emerging equilibrium in the eu emissions trading scheme abstract the european union s emissions trading scheme ets is the key policy instrument of the european commission s climate change program aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions to eight percent below 1990 levels by 2012 a critically important element of the eu ets is the establishment of a market determined price for eu allowances this article examines the extent to which several theoretically founded factors including economic growth energy prices and weather conditions determine the expected prices of the european union co 2 allowances during the 2005 through to the 2009 period the novel aspect of our study is that we examine heavily traded futures instruments that have an expiry date in phase 2 of the eu ets our study adopts both static and recursive versions of the johansen multivariate cointegration likelihood ratio test as well as a variation on this test with a view to controlling for time varying volatility effects our results are indicative of a new pricing regime emerging in phase 2 and point to a maturing market driven by the fundamentals these results are valuable both for traders of eu allowances and for those policy makers seeking to improve the design of the european union ets

the environmental kuznets curve and sustainability a panel data analysis abstract in recent years sustainability has represented one of the most important policy goals explored in the environmental kuznets curve ekc literature but related hypotheses performance measures and results continue to present a challenge the present paper contributes to this ongoing literature by studying two different ekc specifications for 10 middle east and north african mena countries over the period 1990 2010 using panel data methods for the first specification namely ekc we show that there is an inverted u shape relationship between environmental degradation and income while for the second specification namely modified ekc mekc we show that there is an inverted u shape relationship between sustainability and human development hd the relationships are shaped by other factors such as energy trade manufacture added value and the role of law more interestingly findings from the estimation show that ekc hypothesis hd and sustainability are crucial to build effective environmental policies

the nexus between carbon emissions energy consumption and economic growth in middle east countries a panel data analysis abstract the environmental kuznets curve ekc hypothesis assumes that there is an inverted u shaped relationship between environmental degradation and income per capita in other words as a country grows it is assumed that its environmental quality improves in this study we aim to test the ekc hypothesis for 12 middle east countries during the period 1990 2008 by employing recently developed panel data methods our results provide evidence contrary to the ekc hypothesis we found evidence favorable to the u shaped ekc for 5 middle east countries whereas an inverted u shaped curve was identified for only 3 middle east countries furthermore there appear to be no causal links between income and co 2 emissions for the other 4 countries regarding the direction of causality there appears to be a unidirectional causality from economic growth to energy consumption in the short run in the long run however the unidirectional causality chain runs from energy consumption and economic growth to co 2 emissions we also suggest some crucial policy implications depending on these results

foreign direct investment co2 emissions nexus in middle east and north african countries importance of biomass energy consumption abstract this study examines the association between foreign direct investment fdi and carbon emissions for the middle east and north african mena region in 1990 2015 including biomass energy consumption as an additional determinant of carbon emissions we apply the generalized method of moments gmm to validate the existence of the pollution haven hypothesis phh the n shaped association is also validated between fdi and carbon emissions the link between economic growth and carbon emissions is inverted u and n shaped that is it satisfies the environmental kuznets curve ekc hypotheses biomass energy use lowers carbon emissions and the causality analysis reveals that fdi causes co2 emissions clearly the results confirm the existence of a feedback effect between economic growth and carbon emissions the connection between biomass energy use and co2 emissions is also bidirectional the empirical findings suggest policy makers to design comprehensive trade and energy policies by targeting the cleaner production practices for not only to ensure environmental sustainability but also to fulfil the objectives of sustainable development goals

modeling the price dynamics of co2 emission allowances abstract in this paper we analyze the short term spot price behavior of carbon dioxide co 2 emission allowances of the new eu wide co 2 emissions trading system eu ets after reviewing the stylized facts of this new class of assets we investigate several approaches for modeling the returns of emission allowances due to different phases of price and volatility behavior in the returns we suggest the use of markov switching and ar garch models for stochastic modeling we examine the approaches by conducting an in sample and out of sample forecasting analysis and by comparing the results to alternative approaches our findings strongly support the adequacy of the models capturing characteristics like skewness excess kurtosis and in particular different phases of volatility behavior in the returns

the political economy of international green certificate markets this paper analyzes the political economy of establishing bilateral trade in green certificate markets as one step towards harmonization of european green electricity support systems we outline some of the economic principles of an integrated bilateral green certificates market and then discuss a number of issues that are deemed to be critical for the effectiveness stability and legitimacy of such a market by drawing on some of the lessons of the fairly recent intentions to integrate a future green certificate market in norway with the existing swedish one we highlight exemplify and discuss some critical policy implementation and design issues these include for instance the system s connection to climate policy targets the role of other support schemes and the definition of what green electricity technologies should be included furthermore the establishment of an international market presumes that the benefits of renewable power e g its impacts on the environment diversification of the power mix self sufficiency etc are approached and valued from an international perspective rather than from a national one thus implying lesser emphasis on for instance employment and regional development impacts a bilateral green certificate system thus faces a number of important policy challenges but at the same time it could provide important institutional learning effects that can be useful for future attempts aiming at achieving greater policy integration in the european renewable energy sector

carbon price drivers phase i versus phase ii equilibrium abstract the aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of the carbon price during the two phases of the european union emission trading scheme eu ets more specifically relying on daily eu allowance futures contracts we test whether the carbon price drivers identified for phase i still hold for phase ii and evolve toward a long run relationship using cointegration techniques and accounting for the 2006 structural break in the carbon market we show that while a cointegrating relationship exists for both phases of the eu ets the nature of this equilibrium relationship is different across the two subperiods with an increasing role of fundamentals in phase ii deriving equilibrium values we show that the carbon price tends to be undervalued since the end of 2009

electricity consumption in g7 countries a panel cointegration analysis of residential demand elasticities this article applies recently developed panel unit root and panel cointegration techniques to estimate the long run and short run income and price elasticities for residential demand for electricity in g7 countries the panel results indicate that in the long run residential demand for electricity is price elastic and income inelastic the study concludes that from an environmental perspective there is potential to use pricing policies in the g7 countries to curtail residential electricity demand and thus curb carbon emissions in the long run

pros and cons of exposing renewables to electricity market risks a comparison of the market integration approaches in germany spain and the uk abstract the article examines how renewable electricity res e producers are integrated into the electricity market under the support legislations and regulatory frameworks of germany spain and the uk focus is on wind power which faces the highest market integration challenge of all res e the analysis shows that the three countries follow contrasting approaches of exposing res e producers to the market risks of forward electricity markets balancing markets and system planning requirements risk exposure is highest in the uk and lowest in germany from a policy maker s perspective there is a trade off between a high risk and a low risk approach when res e face high market risks a higher level of financial support is required to stimulate res e development than in a low risk environment but the exposure to market risks may also give an incentive to make efficient use of the respective market thus limiting the indirect costs to society the special characteristics of wind energy however put natural limits to the response of wind power plants to market prices and locational price signals and will increasingly influence electricity markets and grid infrastructure these interdependencies should be recognised in the design of res e policies and market regulations

a semi parametric panel data analysis on the urbanisation carbon emissions nexus for the mena countries abstract this study seeks to examine the impacts of urbanisation on carbon emissions through the investigation of the existence of an environmental kuznets curve ekc within the stochastic impacts by regression on population affluence and technology stirpat framework this is the first study in the mena region to explore the urbanisation and carbon emissions nexus using panel data together with a semi parametric panel fixed effects regression the data set refers to a panel of 20 countries in the mena region spanning the period 1980 2014 according to the results there is little evidence to support an inverted u shaped relationship between urbanisation and carbon emissions in the region more specifically it was found in the region and with the continuation of the urbanisation process carbon emissions per capita decreased in addition the results suggest that energy use and economic growth are the main sources of carbon emissions in the region the results imply that policies to reduce carbon emissions in the countries with relatively higher carbon emissions should concentrate more on energy use and the pattern of economic growth and not the urbanisation issue

volatility in an era of reduced uncertainty lessons from pax britannica abstract although it has been well established that financial volatility is related to news and macroeconomic shocks less emphasis has been placed on the importance of underlying economic and political stability in this paper we study the behavior of consol returns since 1729 and identify a greater than 50 decline in volatility from the end of the napoleonic wars in 1815 until the first world war news events and macroeconomic variables cannot account for this extended period of reduced volatility underlying political stability under pax britannica seems to be a more likely explanation

electricity consumption and economic growth bounds and causality analyses of opec members this paper investigates the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth for opec members the bounds test yields evidence of a long run relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth for all opec members causality results suggest that economic growth is dependent on electricity consumption in five countries less dependent in three countries and independent in three countries because these countries do not necessarily share similar political and economic traits no single universal policy implication can be inferred from the results the disparities across these causality results therefore stress the importance of formulating causality explanations while taking into account the particularities of individual countries rather than blindly applying the conventional interpretations

green certificate markets the risk of over investment and the role of long term contracts abstract several papers have recently analyzed the theory and implementation of renewable energy support schemes the case for a renewable electricity standard res in tandem with a tradeable green certificate tgc market has been largely based on efficiency considerations case study evidence is inconclusive in part due to the short track record but is not generally favorable here we reconsider the efficiency case both static and dynamic in light of special characteristics of renewable energy projects we find that when exclusively high fixed cost technologies comprise the eligible technology pool the equilibrium form of contracting obviates the principal efficiency advantages claimed for certificate markets when low fixed cost technologies compete alongside high fixed cost technologies in the certificate market we show that it is likely that long term contracts will disappear and the technological choice will be inefficiently shifted away from the high fixed cost technology we consider evidence from three well developed certificate schemes in britain sweden and texas and find that it is broadly consistent with the theory here

panel estimation for co2 emissions energy consumption economic growth trade openness and urbanization of newly industrialized countries abstract this paper empirically examines the dynamic causal relationships between carbon dioxide emissions energy consumption economic growth trade openness and urbanization for the panel of newly industrialized countries nic using the time series data for the period 1971 2007 using four different panel unit root tests it is found that all panel variables are integrated of order 1 from the johansen fisher panel cointegration test it is found that there is a cointegration vector among the variables the granger causality test results support that there is no evidence of long run causal relationship but there is unidirectional short run causal relationship from economic growth and trade openness to carbon dioxide emissions from economic growth to energy consumption from trade openness to economic growth from urbanization to economic growth and from trade openness to urbanization it is found that the long run elasticity of carbon dioxide emissions with respect to energy consumption 1 2189 is higher than short run elasticity of 0 5984 this indicates that over time higher energy consumption in the newly industrialized countries gives rise to more carbon dioxide emissions as a result our environment will be polluted more but in respect of economic growth trade openness and urbanization the environmental quality is found to be normal good in the long run

environment kuznets curve for co2 emissions a cointegration analysis for china abstract this study examines the long run relationship between carbon emissions and energy consumption income and foreign trade in the case of china by employing time series data of 1975 2005 in particular the study aims at testing whether environmental kuznets curve ekc relationship between co 2 emissions and per capita real gdp holds in the long run or not auto regressive distributed lag ardl methodology is employed for empirical analysis a quadratic relationship between income and co 2 emission has been found for the sample period supporting ekc relationship the results of granger causality tests indicate one way causality runs through economic growth to co 2 emissions the results of this study also indicate that the carbon emissions are mainly determined by income and energy consumption in the long run trade has a positive but statistically insignificant impact on co 2 emissions

eu emission allowances and the stock market evidence from the electricity industry this paper constitutes to our best knowledge the first econometric analysis on stock market effects of the eu emission trading scheme eu ets our results suggest that eu emission allowance eua price developments matter to the stock performance of electricity firms eua price changes and stock returns of the most important european electricity corporations are shown to be positively related this effect does not work asymmetrically so that stock markets do not seem to react differently to eua appreciations in comparison to depreciations the carbon market effect is shown to be both time and country specific it is particularly strong for the period of eua market shock in early 2006 and differs with respect to the countries where the electricity corporations analysed are headquartered stock market reactions to eua volatility could not be shown

global co2 efficiency country wise estimates using a stochastic cost frontier this paper examines global carbon dioxide co2 efficiency by employing a stochastic cost frontier analysis of about 170 countries in 1997 and 2007 the main contribution lies in providing a new approach to environmental efficiency estimation in which the efficiency estimates quantify the distance from the policy objective of minimum emissions we are able to examine a very large pool of nations and provide country wise efficiency estimates we estimate three econometric models corresponding with alternative interpretations of the cancun vision conference of the parties 2011 the models reveal progress in global environmental efficiency during a preceding decade the estimates indicate vast differences in efficiency levels and efficiency changes across countries the highest efficiency levels are observed in africa and europe while the lowest are clustered around china the largest efficiency gains were observed in central and eastern europe co2 efficiency also improved in the us and china the two largest emitters but their ranking in terms of co2 efficiency deteriorated policy implications are discussed

an experimental approach to climate finance the impact of auction design and policy uncertainty on renewable energy equity costs in europe abstract this paper aims at shedding some lights on how policy induced uncertainty affects the cost of capital of renewable energy power plants to this end the paper focuses on renewable energy auctions and on the ongoing brexit negotiations first the paper reviews auction frameworks across europe and discusses the impact of the different designs on project risk then a stated preference approach is leveraged to investigate how policy design and the uncertainty regarding the future arrangements between the uk and the eu contribute to determine the cost of equity for renewable energy the results show that improved auction design can help to lower the equity cost between 0 5 and 1 5 the evidence on brexit is rather weak and if anything suggests only a higher relevance of these negotiations for english based investors than for those based in eu27

the impact of urbanization on co2 emissions evidence from developing countries abstract this paper analyzes the impact of urbanization on co2 emissions in developing countries from 1975 to 2003 it contributes to the existing literature by examining the effect of urbanization taking into account dynamics and the presence of heterogeneity in the sample of countries the results show an inverted u shaped relationship between urbanization and co2 emissions indeed the elasticity emission urbanization is positive for low urbanization levels which is in accordance with the higher environmental impact observed in less developed regions among our contributions is the estimation of a semi parametric mixture model that allows for unknown distributional shapes and endogenously classifies countries into homogeneous groups three groups of countries are identified for which urbanization s impact differs considerably for two of the groups a threshold level is identified beyond which the emission urbanization elasticity is negative and further increases in the urbanization rate do not contribute to higher emissions however for the third group only population and affluence but not urbanization contribute to explain emissions the differential impact of urbanization on co2 emissions should therefore be taken into account in future discussions of climate change policies

social network effects on the extent of innovation diffusion a computer simulation of innovation diffusion no longer focus exclusively on explaining the rate at which innovations diffuse or the sequence in which they are adopted they also focus on explaining why certain innovations diffuse extensively be coming de facto standards whereas others do so partially or not at all many of these theories specify a bandwagon process a positive feedback loop in which increases in the number of adopters create stronger bandwagon pressures and stronger bandwagon pressures in turn cause increases in the number of adopters factors affecting if and how many times this feedback loop cycles explain if and how many potential adopters jump on a bandwagon we argue that one important factor has not yet been incorporated into theories explaining bandwagons extent the structure of social net works through which potential adopters of innovations find out information about these innovations which can cause them to adopt these innovations we advance a theory of how the structure of social networks affects bandwagons extent we propose that both the number of network links as well as small seemingly insignificant idiosyncracies of their structures can have very large effects on the extent of an innovation s diffusion among members of a social network

the compact city just or just compact a preliminary analysis the aim of the research described in this paper is to examine the validity of the claims that higher density urban form promotes social equity that is promotes benefits for the life chances of low income groups overall the evidence suggests that for medium sized english cities higher urban densities may be positive for some aspects of social equity and negative for others more specifically likely benefits include improved public transport reduced social segregation and better access to facilities while the main problems are likely to be reduced living space and a lack of affordable housing investigations of different aspects of density show that the cities that most support social equity appear to be those that have a large proportion of high density housing

the effect of financial constraints technological progress and long term contracts on tradable green certificates tradable green certificates tgcs have recently become a diffuse instrument to support renewable electricity in oecd countries although it is perhaps too early to draw a conclusive judgement on the effectiveness of this instrument in increasing renewable capacity and decreasing the price of certificates one view in the literature maintains that long term contracts are of particular importance for tgcs to be effective this paper contributes to this debate by analysing how financial constraints and technological progress can induce investors to hold pessimistic expectations of their ability to sell green certificates and still make a profit clearly these expectations will prevent investors from building new capacity to fulfil the quota comprised in tgcs and will keep the price of certificates traded in the market high as this kind of expectation is not influenced by most design features of tgcs one can conclude that long term contracts are particularly important in determining the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of these instruments some attention should therefore be paid to the features of the tgcs which induce obliged parties to offer long term contracts to renewable generators

the role of regulatory uncertainty in certificate markets a case study of the swedish norwegian market abstract price volatility in green certificate markets reflects uncertainty over future prices representing a major source of risk for renewable energy generators price risk is considered the principal deficiency of this market based policy since it causes investors to require higher returns moreover investors are exposed to regulatory risk namely the risk that a change in the regulation will materially impact the certificate price regulatory uncertainty is reflected in market volatility exacerbating certificate price risk using an econometric approach we investigate the role of regulatory changes on price volatility in the swedish certificate market the results of our analysis indicate that regulatory changes strongly affect certificate markets resulting in periods of higher volatility moreover we analyze whether certificate price volatility has changed after creating a joint swedish norwegian market results indicate that the ambivalence surrounding the creation of this bigger market led to a period of increased price volatility between 2010 and 2011 overall this article brings a better understanding of the role of regulatory uncertainty on certificate markets and gives evidence for its negative impact in terms of increased price volatility

price volatility and banking in green certificate markets there is concern that prices in a market for green certificates gcs primarily based on volatile wind power will fluctuate excessively leading to corresponding volatility of electricity prices applying a rational expectations simulation model of competitive storage and speculation of gcs the paper shows that the introduction of banking of gcs may reduce price volatility considerably and lead to increased social surplus banking lowers average prices and is therefore not necessarily to the benefit of green producers proposed price bounds on gc prices will reduce the importance of banking and even of the gc system itself

risk based assessment of the cost efficiency and the effectivity of renewable energy support schemes certificate markets versus feed in tariffs the introduction of renewable energy sources in the electricity generation mix has the potential to reduce power sector s emissions and countries dependence on imported oil climate change concerns and highly volatile oil prices have attracted governments interest and support to sustain investments in renewable energy capacity and different support policies have been implemented in many countries around the world this paper analyzes the effects of investors risk aversion on the performance of support schemes the analysis compares two policy options a feed in tariff mechanism with a certificate market system results show that while a tariff mechanism could obtain better results than a certificate market its performance is strictly dependent on regulator choices a certificate market instead permits to obtain the desired level of renewable energy market share with good cost efficiency as long as investors risk aversion is moderate moreover discounting future cash flows with higher social discount rates further benefits a certificate system making it preferable to feed in tariffs

are tradable green certificates a cost efficient policy driving technical change or a rent generating machine lessons from sweden 2003 2008 in the european policy debate tradable green certificates tgc have been suggested to be a superior regulatory framework for promoting the diffusion of renewable electricity technologies the purpose of this paper is to assess the performance of the swedish tgc system contributing to the european debate on the suitability of different types of frameworks the expectations of the tgc system were that it would a be effective in terms of increasing the supply of green electricity b do this in a cost effective manner from both a social and a consumer perspective c generate an equitable distribution of costs and benefits and d drive technical change so far it has performed adequately in terms of effectiveness and social cost effectiveness however consumer costs have been substantially higher than expected very large rents are generated and at best it contributes marginally to technical change thus a tgc framework should be selected if the overriding concern is to minimize short term social costs of reaching a certain goal with a high degree of predictability however it cannot be expected to also drive technical change keep consumer costs down and be equitable such trade offs need to be revealed and not obscured by analysts

renewable energy regulation and structural breaks an empirical analysis of spanish electricity price volatility abstract international experience proves that electricity prices have undergone major changes in volatility since the entry of green technologies the intermittency of renewable sources is one of the reasons for these changes as it leads to higher volatility in periods of higher participation by renewables we argue that the development of the regulatory system promoting renewable electricity also plays a crucial role we raise a question that deserves attention could an incentive scheme induce higher share of renewables and lower volatility simultaneously in this paper we conduct an empirical analysis with spanish data we analyze possible ensuing structural changes in spanish electricity spot price volatility from january 2002 to december 2017 we identify two structural breaks linked to important measures related to renewable electricity i the abolishment of the feed in tariff scheme and ii the establishment of a more market oriented regulation based on investment and operating costs we conclude that stable regulatory policies reduce volatility even though the presence of renewable sources is greater furthermore market based policy measures achieve lower volatility encouraging good integration of intermittent renewable electricity

is china s development conforms to the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis and the pollution haven hypothesis abstract the environmental kuznets curve and pollution haven hypotheses have been verified by many studies however there is still no consensus on whether china s situation is consistent with the abovementioned hypotheses therefore to investigate whether china s development aligns with the environmental kuznets curve and pollution haven hypotheses this study considered provincial panel data from 1996 to 2015 and used the fixed effects panel data partially linear additive model which integrates economic growth and foreign direct investment into the same framework to investigate their impact on carbon emissions the results revealed that there exists a reverse u shape relationship between economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions and an inverted n shaped relationship between foreign direct investment and carbon dioxide emissions moreover the results revealed that energy consumption has an accelerating effect on the production pace of carbon dioxide emissions the upgrading of industrial infrastructure technology diffusion and trade liberalization can contribute to the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions additionally this study proposes the following future research directions first considering the regional differences in china the conclusions of this study should be re examined by grouping different regions secondly the formation mechanism of the inverted n type relationship between foreign direct investment and carbon emissions is also an issue that requires further discussion finally a comparative study between developed and developing countries is needed to test and verify the universality and adaptability of the conclusions drawn from this study

energy consumption economic growth and co2 emissions in middle east and north african countries this article extends the recent findings of liu 2005 ang 2007 apergis et al 2009 and payne 2010 by implementing recent bootstrap panel unit root tests and cointegration techniques to investigate the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions energy consumption and real gdp for 12 middle east and north african countries mena over the period 1981 2005 our results show that in the long run energy consumption has a positive significant impact on co2 emissions more interestingly we show that real gdp exhibits a quadratic relationship with co2 emissions for the region as a whole however although the estimated long run coefficients of income and its square satisfy the ekc hypothesis in most studied countries the turning points are very low in some cases and very high in other cases hence providing poor evidence in support of the ekc hypothesis co2 emission reductions per capita have been achieved in the mena region even while the region exhibited economic growth over the period 1981 2005 the econometric relationships derived in this paper suggest that future reductions in co2 emissions per capita might be achieved at the same time as gdp per capita in the mena region continues to grow