agricultural land elasticities in the united states and brazil the elasticity of aggregate supply is one key to understanding the degree to which policy induced increases in demand for biofuel feedstocks or agricultural co2 offsets will result in higher prices or expanded supply in this paper we report land supply elasticities for the united states and brazil estimated directly from the observed changes in cropland and estimated changes in expected returns the resulting aggregate implied land use elasticities with respect to price are quite inelastic in the united states and more elastic in brazil 0 007 0 029 and 0 382 0 895 respectively however with pasture land included in brazil implied elasticities become much less inelastic 0 007 0 245

a class of tractable incomplete market models for studying asset returns and risk exposure abstract we present a class of tractable incomplete market models where agents face both aggregate risk and limited participation in financial markets tractability relies on the assumptions of small asset volumes and of a period utility function that is linear beyond a threshold in line with fishburn s 1977 contribution in decision theory we prove the existence of an equilibrium and derive theoretical results regarding asset prices and consumption choices this small trade model is able to reproduce a low safe return and a high equity premium together with a realistic representation of household exposure to both idiosyncratic and aggregate risks

unemployment risk and precautionary wealth evidence from households balance sheets this paper examines precautionary behavior by relating job loss risk to household net worth we use existing best practice and some new strategies to deal with some problematic issues inherent in this literature regarding proxying uncertainty instrumentation and incorporating theoretical restrictions we do not find precautionary variation in the wealth holdings of households with low permanent income but do find precautionary effects for moderate and higher income households when the dependent variable is total net worth these findings are robust to several alternative specifications but we do not find precautionary responses in subaggregates of wealth that exclude home equity

idiosyncratic variation of treasury bill yields i document a dramatic increase in the importance of two types of variation in treasury bill yields beginning in the early 1980s the first is idiosyncratic variation in individual short maturity less than three months bill yields the second is a common component in treasury bill yields that is not shared by yields on other instruments such as short maturity privately issued instruments or longer maturity treasury notes and bonds some evidence suggests the first type reflects increased market segmentation these results have important implications for the calibration and testing of no arbitrage term structure models and interpreting tests of the expectations hypothesis united states treasury bill yields play a central role in economists efforts to understand the behavior of financial markets the focus on treasury bills is driven by the belief that bill yields can be viewed as benchmarks from which yields on other debt instruments are derived for example in no arbitrage models of the default free term structure the stochastic properties of the hypothetical instantaneous interest rate determine bond prices researchers often construct and evaluate these models using short maturity bill yields as proxies for instantaneous interest rates similarly bill yields are frequently used to test the expectations hypothesis of the term structure 2 economists standard pricing models for default risky securities also view treasury yields as building blocks in such models yields on default risky securities depend at least in part on the yields of default free securities and the underlying stochastic default process therefore yields on treasury bills have been used in studies of the effects of monetary policy on the business cycle not because bills are intrinsically critical to the economy but because

the global supply and demand for agricultural land in 2050 a perfect storm in the making the number of people which the world must feed is expected to increase by another 2 billion people by 2050 when coupled with significant nutritional improvements for the 2 1 billion people currently living on less than 2 day this translates into a very substantial rise in the demand for agricultural production most past growth in the demand for food has been met by improvements in productivity but there is evidence of declining growth rates for agricultural yields climate change is likely to have important impacts on productivity through changes in temperature and precipitation land based climate mitigation policies are also projected to lead to increasing pressure on agricultural lands meanwhile supplies of water for irrigation are under pressure urban land use is on the rise and demands for setting aside land for environmental purposes continue to increase clearly an enormous amount of additional research on ways to deal with this potential perfect storm is needed this paper highlights the explores the roles of biophysical and economic uncertainty in these projections of long run land use change using this to suggest a future research agenda

the optimum quantity of debt abstract we find that the welfare gains to being at the optimum quantity of debt rather than the current us level are small and therefore concerns regarding the high level of debt in the us economy may be misplaced this finding is based on a model of a large number of infinitely lived households whose saving behavior is influenced by precautionary saving motives and borrowing constraints this model incorporates a different role for government debt than is found in standard models and it captures different cost benefit trade offs on the benefit side government debt enhances the liquidity of households by providing an additional means of smoothing consumption and by effectively loosening borrowing constraints on the cost side the implied taxes have adverse wealth distribution and incentive effects in addition government debt crowds out capital via higher interest rates and lowers per capita consumption

asset prices in a huggett economy this paper explores asset pricing in economies where there is no direct insurance against idiosyncratic risks but other assets can be used for self insurance subject to exogenously imposed borrowing limits we analyze an endowment economy based on huggett 1993 11 both with and without aggregate risk our main innovation is that we obtain full analytical tractability by studying the case with maximally tight borrowing constraints we illustrate by looking at riskless bonds equity and the term structure of interest rates and we show that the model can reproduce many features of observed asset prices when idiosyncratic risks are quantitatively reasonable

unemployment insurance and precautionary saving abstract models of precautionary saving imply that households will hold more assets when faced with greater income uncertainty however previous empirical studies of income uncertainty have produced somewhat mixed support for the precautionary saving hypothesis in this paper we note that differences in the state contingent income stream available to workers through the unemployment insurance ui program provides an excellent source of variation for testing the presence of a precautionary savings motive simulations of a stochastic life cycle model suggest that a ui system similar to the type currently in place in the u s can lead to a significant reduction in the assets accumulated by a median worker moreover there is considerable variation in the ui benefit schedules for workers living in different states in the u s which provides an exogenous source of variation for empirically testing the precautionary saving hypothesis we carry out this test using data on expected ui benefit replacement rates and financial assets held by households in the survey of income and program participation our empirical results are consistent with the predictions of the model and suggest that reducing the ui benefit replacement rate by 50 percent would increase gross financial asset holdings by 14 percent or 241 for the average worker we also find empirical evidence that this crowd out effect of ui on household saving is stronger for those facing higher unemployment risk and weaker for older workers both of which are implications from our precautionary saving model

the effectiveness of government debt and transfers as insurance abstract government debt and redistributive taxation can help people to smooth consumption when facing uninsurable individual specific risk i examine the effects that variations in public debt and transfers have on risk sharing efficiency and the distribution of resources i find that risk sharing can be improved significantly by both debt and transfers but that debt has adverse effects on equity when used in isolation debt will enhance welfare if transfers are lower than optimal however the beneficial effects of public debt vanish if transfers are used optimally

a search based theory of the on the run phenomenon we propose a model in which assets with identical cash flows can trade at different prices infinitely lived agents can establish long positions in a search spot market or short positions by first borrowing an asset in a search repo market we show that short sellers can endogenously concentrate in one asset because of search externalities and the constraint that they must deliver the asset they borrowed that asset enjoys greater liquidity a higher lending fee specialness and trades at a premium consistent with no arbitrage we derive closed form solutions for small frictions and provide a calibration generating realistic on the run premia

liquidity constrained markets versus debt constrained markets this paper compares two different models in a common environment the first model has liquidity constraints in that consumers save a single asset that they cannot sell short the second model has debt constraints in that consumers cannot borrow so much that they would want to default but is otherwise a standard complete markets model both models share the features that individuals are unable to completely insure against idiosyncratic shocks and that interest rates are lower than subjective discount rates in a stochastic environment the two models have quite different dynamic properties with the debt constrained model exhibiting simple stochastic steady states while the liquidity constrained model has greater persistence of shocks

clearing control policies for map inventory process with lost sales abstract we consider a production clearing process in a random environment where a single machine produces a certain product into a buffer continuously the demands arrive according to a markov additive process map governed by a continuous time markov chain and their sizes are independent and have phase type distributions depending on the type of arrival since negative inventory is not allowed the demand may be partially satisfied the production process switches between predetermined rates that depend on the state of the environment in addition the system is totally cleared at stationary renewal times and starts anew at level zero immediately several clearing policies are considered clearing at random times clearing at crossings of a specified level and a combination of the above policies we assume the total cost includes a fixed clearing cost a variable cost for the cleared amount a holding cost and a lost demand cost by applying regenerative theory we use tools from the exit time theorem for fluid processes and martingales to obtain cost functionals under both the discounted and average criteria finally illustrative examples and a comparative study are provided

liquidity maturity and the yields on u s treasury securities the efrect8 of aaaet liquidity on expected retuma for ts with infinite maturities toc ka are eumined for bonda treuury notes and bills with matched maturities of lellll than 6 months the yield to maturity ill higher on notes which have lower liquidity the yield di1ferential between notes and billa is a decreuing and convex function of the time to maturity the results provide a robult confirmation of the liquidity effect in auet pricing this paper studies empirically the effects of the liquidity of capital assets on their prices amihud and mendelson 1986 1989 proposed that liquidity affects asset prices because investors require a compensation for bearing transaction costs transaction costs paid whenever the asset is traded form a sequence of cash outflows the discounted value of this cost stream proxies for the value 1088 due to illiquidity which lowers the asset s value for any given cash flow that the asset generates 1 as a result the return on assets should be an increasing function of their illiquidity other things equal for stocks the illiquidity effect is expected to be strong because their transaction cost sequence is infinite amihud and mendelson 1986 1989 demonstrated that common stocks with lower liquidity yielded significantly higher average returns after controlling for risk and for other factors these results on the importance of liquidity in the pricing of stocks raise additional questions i does the liquidity effect depend on the specific controls used by amihud and mendelson 1986 1989 1 ii does illiquidity have a similarly strong effect on the pricing of bonds whose maturities are finite and iii if liquidity affects bond yields how is this effect related to the bond s time to maturity

endogenous market thinness and stock price volatility thin equity markets cannot accommodate temporary bulges of buy or sell orders without large price movements the resulting volatility can induce risk averse transactors who face transaction costs to desert these markets thus thinness and the related price volatility may become joint self perpetuating features of an equity market irrespective of the volatility of asset fundamentals if however appropriate incentive schemes are adopted to encourage entry by additional investors this vicious circle can be broken eventually shifting the market to a selfsustaining superior equilibrium characterized by a higher number of transactors lower price volatility and larger supply of the asset a number of empirical studies cohen et al 1976 telser and higimbotham 1977 pagano 1986 tauchen and pitts 1983 have found that thin speculative markets are ceteris paribus more volatile than deep ones a plausible explanation for this finding is that thin markets are generally characterized by small numbers of transactors per unit time and thus their prices are more sensitive to the impact of individual traders demand shocks conversely in deep markets transactors are so many that the uncorrelated demand shocks experienced by individual traders tend to offset each other and leave market prices largely unaffected while this suggests a rationale for the observed relationship between market size and price volatility it does so by taking market size as the exogenous factor however the volatility of a speculative market may feed back on its size in the sense that the high liquidation risk implied by very volatile prices can induce potential entrants to keep out of the market this paper shows that in a stock market with transaction costs this interaction between thinness and volatility can produce multiple steady state equilibria some characterized by low trade and high volatility and others by high trade and low volatility whether the market will settle in one equilibrium or another depends entirely on the expectations held by economic agents sections 2 and 3 the existence of these multiple bootstrap equilibria can be explained heuristically as follows each additional trader generates a positive externality for other actual or potential traders by decreasing the riskiness of the stock lower risk in turn tends to attract more investors with the effect of raising stock prices and inducing corporations to issue additional equity we thus have a feedback loop between market size and price volatility where market size is measured both along the dimension of the number of traders and along that of the total stock of equities if however investors face transactions costs in the stock market this positive feedback may fail to be operative if the volume of trade is expected to be small investors with relatively high transaction costs will abstain from trading thus the market

term structure movements and pricing interest rate contingent claims this paper derives an arbitrage free interest rate movements model ar model this model takes the complete term structure as given and derives the subsequent stochastic movement of the term structure such that the movement is arbitrage free we then show that the ar model can be used to price interest rate contingent claims relative to the observed complete term structure of interest rates this paper also studies the behavior and the economics of the model our approach can be used to price a broad range of interest rate contingent claims including bond options and callable bonds

heterogeneity aggregate uncertainty and the short term interest rate this article analyzes the relationship between the short term interest rate and diversity i e the number of types in models with heterogeneous agents and incomplete markets the number of types needed to approximate a continuum varies across examples in all cases however the number of types has little effect on the average interest rate and consumption variability in these models the set of state variables is large because the equilibrium law of motion depends on the cross sectional wealth distribution the article shows how to solve these models numerically by approximating the distribution using moments or percentiles

bond market clienteles the yield curve and the optimal maturity structure of government debt we propose a clientele based model of the yield curve and optimal maturity structure of government debt clienteles are generations of agents at different life cycle stages in an overlappinggenerations economy an optimal maturity structure exists in the absence of distortionary taxes and induces efficient intergenerational risksharing if agents are more risk averse than log then an increase in the long horizon clientele raises the price and optimal supply of long term bonds but while a welfare maximizing government caters to clienteles it does not accommodate fully their demand and limits issuance of long term bonds to a level where these earn negative expected excess returns

equilibrium asset prices with undiversifiable labor income risk abstract in a two period lucas tree economy in which ex ante identical but ex post dissimilar agents face undiversifiable labor income risk calibrating a wrong representative agent model results in overstating the equilibrium riskfree rate and in understating the equilibrium equity premium if the utility function exhibits decreasing absolute risk aversion and decreasing absolute prudence these behavioral assumptions provide as a consequence a theoretical rationale for the often advanced conjecture that nontraded risk contributes to the solution of the riskfree rate and equity premium puzzles

inter and intra seasonal crop acreage response to international food prices and implications of volatility understanding how producers make decisions to allot acreage among crops and how decisions about land use are affected by changes in prices and their volatility is fundamental for predicting the supply of staple crops and hence assessing the global food supply situation this study makes estimations of monthly i e seasonal versus annual global acreage response models for the world s principal staple food crops wheat corn soybeans and rice primary emphasis is given to the magnitude and speed of the allocation process estimation of intra annual acreage elasticity is crucial for expected food supply and for input demand especially in the light of the recent short term volatility in food prices the econometric results indicate that global crop acreage responds to crop prices and price risks input costs as well as a time trend depending on respective crop short run elasticities are about 0 05 to 0 40 price volatility tends to reduce acreage for some of the crops comparison of the annual and the monthly acreage response elasticities suggests that acreage adjusts seasonally around the globe to new information and expectations given the seasonality of agriculture time is of an essence for acreage response the analysis indicates that acreage allocation is more sensitive to prices in the northern hemisphere spring than in winter and the response varies across months

a re examination of the predictability of economic activity using the yield spread this paper revisits the yield spread s usefulness for predicting future real gdp growth we show that the contribution of the spread can be decomposed into the effect of expected future changes in short rates and the effect of the term premium we find that both factors are relevant for predicting real gdp growth but the respective contributions differ we investigate whether the cyclical behavior of interest rate volatility could account for either or both effects we find that while volatility displays important correlations with both the term structure of interest rates and gdp it does not appear to account for the yield spread s usefulness for predicting gdp growth

fiscal policy with heterogeneous agents and incomplete markets i undertake a quantitative investigation into the short run effects of changes in the timing of proportional income taxes for model economies in which heterogeneous households face a borrowing constraint temporary tax changes are found to have large real effects in the benchmark model a temporary tax cut increases aggregate consumption on impact by around 29 cents for every dollar of tax revenue lost comparing the benchmark incomplete markets model to a complete markets economy income tax cuts provide a larger boost to consumption and a smaller investment stimulus when asset markets are incomplete copyright 2005 wiley blackwell

asset pricing with limited risk sharing and heterogeneous agents we develop a model with incomplete markets and heterogeneous agents that generates a large equity premium while simultaneously matching stock market participation and individual asset holdings the high risk premium is driven by incomplete risk sharing among stockholders which results from the combination of aggregate uncertainty borrowing constraints and a realistically calibrated life cycle earnings profile subject to idiosyncratic shocks we show that it is challenging to simultaneously match asset pricing moments and individual portfolio decisions while limited participation has a negligible impact on the risk premium contrary to the results of models where it is imposed exogenously

incomplete markets liquidation risk and the term structure of interest rates we analyse the term structure of interest rates in a general equilibrium model with incomplete markets borrowing constraint and positive net supply of government bonds uninsured idiosyncratic shocks generate bond trades while aggregate shocks cause uctuations in the trading price of bonds long bonds command a liquidation risk premium over short bonds because they may have to be liquidated before maturity following a bad idiosyncratic shock precisely when their resale value is low due to the simultaneous occurrence of a bad aggregate shock our framework endogenously generates limited cross sectional wealth heterogeneity among the agents despite the presence of uninsured idiosyncratic shocks which allows us to characterise analytically the shape of the entire yield curve including the yields on bonds of arbitrarily long maturities agents desire to hedge the idiosyncratic risk together with their fear of having to liquidate long bonds at unfavourable terms imply that a greater bond supply raises the level of the yield curve while an increase in the relative supply of long bonds raises its slope

search in asset markets market structure liquidity and welfare this paper investigates how market structure affects efficiency and several dimensions of liquidity in an asset market to this end we generalize the search theoretic model of financial intermediation of darrell duffie et al 2005 to allow for entry of dealers and unrestricted asset holdings

the risk free rate in heterogeneous agent incomplete insurance economies abstract why has the average real risk free interest rate been less than one percent the question is motivated by the failure of a class of calibrated representative agent economies to explain the average return to equity and risk free debt i construct an economy where agents experience uninsurable idiosyncratic endowment shocks and smooth consumption by holding a risk free asset i calibrate the economy and characterize equilibria computationally with a borrowing constraint of one year s income the resulting risk free rate is more than one percent below the rate in the comparable representative agent economy

lapm a liquidity based asset pricing model the intertemporal capm predicts that an asset s price is equal to the expectation of the product of the asset s payoff and a representative consumer s intertemporal marginal rate of substitution this paper develops an alternative approach to asset pricing based on corporations desire to hoard liquidity our corporate finance approach suggests new determinants of asset prices such as the distribution of wealth within the corporate sector and between the corporate sector and the consumers also leverage ratios capital adequacy requirements and the composition of savings affect the corporate demand for liquid assets and thereby interest rates starting with the capital asset pricing model capm derived by sharpe 1964 lintner 1965 and mossin 1966 market finance has emphasized the role of consumers time preference and risk aversion in determining asset prices the intertemporal consumption based asset pricing model e g rubinstein 1976 lucas 1978 breeden 1979 harrison and kreps 1979 cox ingersoll and ross 1985 hansen and jagannathan 1991 predicts that an asset s current price is equal to the expectation conditioned on current information of the product of the asset s payoff and a representative consumer s intertemporal marginal rate of substitution imrs while fundamental this dominant paradigm for pricing assets has some wellrecognized shortcomings see below and there is clearly scope for alternative and complementary approaches this paper begins developing one such approach based on aggregate liquidity considerations 1 our starting point is that the productive and financial spheres of the economy have autonomous demands for financial assets and that their valuations for these assets are often disconnected from the representative consumer s corporate demand for financial assets is driven by the desire to hoard liquidity in order to fulfill future cash needs in contrast with the

identifying supply and demand elasticities of agricultural commodities implications for the us ethanol mandate we present a new framework to identify supply elasticities of storable commodities where past shocks are used as exogenous price shifters in the agricultural context past yield shocks change inventory levels and futures prices of agricultural commodities we use our estimated elasticities to evaluate the impact of the 2009 renewable fuel standard on commodity prices quantities and food consumers surplus for the four basic staples corn rice soybeans and wheat prices increase 20 per cent if one third of commodities used to produce ethanol are recycled as feedstock with a positively skewed 95 percent confidence interval that ranges from 14 to 35 per cent jel q11 q16 q42 q48

debt constrained asset markets we develop a theory of general equilibrium with endogenous debt limits in the form of individual rationality constraints similar to those in the dynamic consistency literature if an agent defaults on a contract he can be excluded from future contingent claims markets trading and can have his assets seized he cannot be excluded from spot markets trading however and he has some private endowments that cannot be seized all information is publicly held and common knowledge and there is a complete set of contingent claims markets since there is complete information an agent cannot enter into a contract in which he would have an incentive to default in some state in general there is only partial insurance variations in consumption may be imperfectly correlated across agents interest rates may be lower than they would be without constraints and equilibria may be pareto ranked

on the term structure of interest rates abstract this paper tests the one good stochastic growth model with respect to its ability to explain the term structure of real interest rates we undertake both a qualitative and quantitative analysis first we assess the changing shape of the yield curve over the model economy s business cycle and compare our results with what is empirically observed second we employ the model to study various implications of informational and allocative efficiency properties which the artificial economy must possess it is found for example that long term rates are less volatile than short term rates and that holding premia can be highly correlated over time third we study the time varying risk premium implicit in the economy s forward rate structure a purely quantitative assessment of the model s explanatory power is also provided