forward contracts for the operation of an electricity industry under spot pricing a study is reported of the use of forward contracts as risk instruments for electricity industries operating under spot pricing forward contracts involve financial transactions or commitments which relate to a physical trade at a later time instance price setting and appropriate participant responses are discussed simulation studies are used to demonstrate that forward contracts offer participants an opportunity to reduce their risk exposure without removing the incentive to respond to higher spot prices

stochastic modeling of financial electricity contracts abstract we discuss the modeling of electricity contracts traded in many deregulated power markets these forward futures type contracts deliver either physically or financially electricity over a specified time period and is frequently referred to as swaps since they in effect represent an exchange of fixed for floating electricity price we propose to use the heath jarrow morton approach to model swap prices since the notion of a spot price is not easily defined in these markets for general stochastic dynamical models we connect the spot price the instantaneous delivery forward price and the swap price and analyze two different ways to apply the heath jarrow morton approach to swap pricing either one specifies a dynamics for the non existing instantaneous delivery forwards and derives the implied swap dynamics or one models directly on the swaps the former is shown to lead to quite complicated stochastic models for the swap price even when the forward dynamics is simple the latter has some theoretical problems due to a no arbitrage condition that has to be satisfied for swaps with overlapping delivery periods to overcome this problem a practical modeling approach is analyzed the market is supposed only to consist of non overlapping swaps and these are modelled directly a thorough empirical study is performed using data collected from nord pool our investigations demonstrate that it is possible to state reasonable models for the swap price dynamics which is analytically tractable for risk management and option pricing purposes however this is an area of further research

effects of financial innovations on the money demand function a canadian evidence a money demand function for the candian economy has been estimated to explore if recent financial innovations have caused any significant change in the structural relationship between the demand for money and its determinants two sets of estimation results have been analysed the first set is obtained by estimating a standard money demand function for several overlapping sample periods and the other set is obtained by estimating a modified version which included a dummy or a ratchet variable to capture the effects of innovations the estimated equations have been used to generate ex post simulations and forecasts the results suggest that innovations have displaced the money demand function in the early 1980s it also appears that the incorporation of approriate innovation variables improves the predictive performance of the money demand function

money still makes the world go round the zonal view many leading monetary economists have come to regard the monetary aggregates as obsolete measures of the monetary policy stance this critique has led some to view money as having lost its central role in the conduct of monetary policy we say to those advocating excising money from monetary policy not so fast to better understand the potential role for money we develop a zonal view of monetary policy which reflects the historical regularity for the relative informativeness of the quantitative measures of monetary policy such as the monetary aggregates and real interest rates to depend on the inflation zone in which a central bank finds itself the zones range from high inflation zone 1 to deep deflation zone 5 with intermediate zones of moderate inflation zone 2 low inflation zone 3 and low deflation zone 4 we find considerable support for this view in the historical data which stretches back to the 19 th century seen from this perspective the past experience of central banks casts doubt on the singular importance often attributed to the short term real interest rate as an indicator of the stance of monetary policy this applies especially in the current low inflation environment in which many central banks find themselves the zonal view has far reaching implications for monetary policy frameworks for the analytical efforts to understand the monetary policy transmission mechanism and for central bank communication strategies this paper was prepared for the 21 st congress of the european economic association held in vienna on august 27 2006 the views expressed in the paper are solely those of the authors

partial market value accounting bank capital volatility and bank risk abstract this paper presents evidence on the costs and benefits for the u s banking system of a partial version of market value accounting in which only securities are marked to market because accounting for liabilities is unchanged this accounting system has the same potential for misvaluing bank capital as historical cost accounting evidence from bank failure prediction models indicates the new system will not reduce bank failure rates other evidence indicates that net benefits will be small in absolute value and of uncertain sign

explanations for the instability of equity beta risk free rate changes and leverage effects this paper is an initial attempt to bridge the gap that presently exists between the theoretical and empirical literature on the instability of equity beta we focus on two factors from the joint option pricing model capital asset pricing model framework leverage and unexpected changes in the risk free rate which are hypothesized to influence the instability of equity beta across firms and over time using alternative variable parameter regression models we find that highly leveraged firms exhibit greater equity beta instability than firms with lower leverage over time equity betas exhibit greater instability during periods of large unexpected changes in the risk free rate when compared to periods with small unexpected changes in the risk free rate

deregulation liberalization and consolidation of the mexican banking system effects on competition este articulo analiza la evolucion de la competencia en el sistema bancario mexicano en el periodo 1993 2005 periodo de desregulacion liberalizacion y consolidacion del sector para ello se utilizan dos medidas de competencia derivadas de la teoria de la organizacion industrial el indice de lerner y el estadistico h de panzar y rosse la evidencia empirica no permite rechazar la existencia de competencia monopolistica el indice de lerner muestra una disminucion en la rivalidad competitiva en el mercado de los depositos y un incremento en el mercado de los prestamos observandose una estrategia de subsidiacion cruzada entre ambos mercados los resultados obtenidos cuestionan la efectividad de las medidas hasta ahora implementadas dirigidas a incrementar la competencia en la banca mexicana

privatization competition and supercompetition in the mexican commercial banking system abstract much literature before and after the privatization of mexico s commercial banking system in 1991 1992 argued that the system was collusive and noncompetitive and would likely continue to be for years banks would collude to underloan so that at least in comparison with what would happen in a competitive system they could overcharge because a parallel literature on lending after bank privatization suggests that the problem is often not too little but too much we resolved to test for competitive behavior in the mexican banking system using an empirical approach developed by shaffer econom lett 29 1989 321 j money credit bank 25 1993 49 federal reserve bank of philadelphia working paper no 93 28r we find a structural break in the middle of the privatization period that signals the start of an episode of what shaffer calls supercompetitive behavior in such a supercompetition banks run at levels of output where marginal cost exceeds marginal revenue this behavior is consistent with a struggle in which banks take losses now because they think the market share they get in the bargain offers a positive present value of expected future return the behavior can also be consistent with just the sort of banking crises that ensued in mexico

mexico s experiments with bank privatization and liberalization 1991 2003 during the 1990s mexico conducted two experiments with its banking system in the first experiment 1991 96 it privatized the banks this experiment took place with weak institutions to enforce contract rights it also took place without institutions that encourage prudent behavior by bankers the result was reckless behavior by banks and a collapse of the banking system in the second experiment 1997 2003 mexico reformed many of the institutions that promoted bank monitoring and it opened up the industry to foreign investment it was less successful however in reforming the institutions that promote the enforcement of contract rights the result was that bankers behaved prudently but prudent behavior in the context of weak contract rights implies that banks are reluctant to extend credit to firms and households

bond pricing and the term structure of interest rates a new methodology for contingent claims valuation this paper presents a unifying theory for valuing contingent claims under a stochastic term structure of interest rates the methodology based on the equivalent martingale measure technique takes as given an initial forward rate curve and a family of potential stochastic processee for its subsequent movements a no arbitrage condition restricts this family of processes yielding valuation formulae for interest rate sensitive contingent claims which do not explicitly depend on the market prices of risk examples are provided to illustrate the key results in relation to the term structure of interest rates arbitrage pricing theory has two purposes the first is to price all zero coupon default free bonds of varying maturities from a finite number of economic fundamentals called state variables the second is to price all interest rate sensitive contingent claims taking as given the prices of the zero coupon bonds this paper presents a general theory and a unifying framework for understanding arbitrage pricing theory in this context of which all existing arbitrage pricing models are special cases in particular vasicek 1977 brennan and schwartz 1979 langetieg 1980 ball and torous 1983 ho and lee 1986 schaefer and schwartz 1987 and artzner and delbaen 1988 the primary contribution of this paper however is a new methodology for solving the second problem i e the pricing of interest rate sensitive contingent claims given the prices of all zero coupon bonds the methodology is new because i it imposes its stochastic structure directly on the evolution of the forward rate curve ii it does not require an inversion of the term structure to eliminate the market prices of risk from contingent claim values and iii it has a stochastic spot rate process with multiple stochastic factors influencing the term structure the model can be used to consistently price and hedge all contingent claims american or european on the term structure and it is derived from necessary and more importantly sufficient conditions for the absence of arbitrage the arbitrage pricing models of vasicek 1977 brennan and schwartz 1979 langetieg 1980 and artzner and delbaen 1988 all require an iformerly titled bond pricing and the term structure of interest rates a new methodology

asymmetric exchange rate exposure theory and evidence abstract this paper tests the hypothesis that exchange rate exposure is asymmetric over appreciation depreciation cycles more specifically it investigates whether returns on nine sector indexes across four major countries are asymmetrically affected by exchange rate movements the results show that in several instances exposure is asymmetric asymmetries are found to be more pronounced in the financial and non cyclical sectors possible theoretical explanations are provided regarding the particular type of exposure found across sectors and countries

generators and the cost of electricity outages abstract investment in back up generators is treated as insurance against the adverse effects of power outages a theoretical model is developed which implies that the cost of outages may be inferred from revealed preference data on expenditure on generators the conditions for the optimal social provision of electricity reliability are discussed

accounting standards and financial market stability an experimental examination we examine the effects of three alternative accounting methods in an experimental asset market characterised by bubbles and crashes fair value m2m historical cost hc and marked to fundamental value m2f each treatment is replicated under both no leverage and leverage conditions in the no leverage condition we find that accounting methods do not have a significant effect on asset mispricing in the leverage condition both m2m and m2f accounting methods exacerbate asset mispricing yet the two differ in leverage dynamics m2f markets are completely immune to defaults while m2m markets experience the most frequent and the most severe defaults

optimal involvement in futures markets of a power producer this paper addresses the optimal involvement in a futures electricity market of a power producer to hedge against the risk of pool price volatility the considered trading horizon spans one whole year recognizing the highly uncertain nature of future pool prices a stochastic programming framework with recourse is used to model this decision making problem the resulting problem is a large scale mixed integer linear programming problem scenario reduction techniques are used to make this problem tractable risk is properly modeled using the cvar methodology results from a realistic case study are provided and analyzed some conclusions are finally drawn

the limitations of market value accounting and a more realistic alternative abstract market value accounting mva might improve market and regulatory discipline on financial institutions unfortunately there are serious conceptual measurement and incentive problems with implementing mva that have not received significant attention these problems are suggested by the theory of asymmetric information and the role intermediaries play in solving information and monitoring problems after analyzing the problems with mva we develop an alternative approach that applies mva principles where they are most feasible and uses a statistical procedure where asymmetric information problems make mva particularly problematic an empirical analysis suggests that this procedure may substantially improve the distribution of regulatory discipline

unexpected inflation and bank stock returns the case of france 1977 1991 abstract this paper evaluates the impact of unexpected inflation on the stock returns of a sample of french banks it offers an empirical test of theories that have predicted an impact of inflation on the stock returns of banks the paper complements a large literature that has focused exclusively on the impact of unexpected interest rates the analysis provides empirical support to the hypothesis that in periods of volatile inflation there exists an inflation risk factor which is independent of the well documented interest rate factor

how do banks respond to shocks a dynamic model of deposit taking institutions abstract this paper proposes a dynamic model of the optimal choices of a bank that benefits from market power and takes into account the impact of the deposit generation process interbank lending borrowing emerges as a buffer that assists the bank in smoothing intertemporal adjustments in interdependent loan and deposit choices the bank smooths the impact of interest rates shocks on its customers to minimize the adjustments over time of the stocks of deposits and loans it does not however provide insurance against negative shocks of real origin that increase its expected default costs the predictions of the model help to shed light on the available empirical evidence and to analyze some recent developments of the banking industry

a contribution to event study methodology with an application to the dutch stock market abstract this paper proposes an extended market model for event studies based on daily stock returns for actual data the assumptions of the simple market model are violated the return distribution is not normal and neither the variance of the error term nor the risk parameter beta are constant our model incorporates the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity garch model with t distributed errors and a time dependent beta we test for anomalies by adding dummy variables in the regression equation our model is fairly general and could be used in a wide variety of event study situations we illustrate the model by an analysis of the weekend and the option expiration effect we use return data from the dutch stock market the weekend effect on stock returns is significant but no expiration effect could be detected

common and unique factors influencing daily swap returns in the nordic electricity market 1997 2005 this paper demonstrates that electricity swap returns can be explained by a set of uncorrelated common and unique risk factors electricity swap returns differ from return data in other markets by a significant portion of overall risk being unaccounted for by common factors it follows that hedging a given exposure with an exposure in another segment of the swap market could be fallible furthermore the volatility function common to all swaps may have to be augmented by unique risk in applied pricing applications

a new test of the relationship between regulatory change in financial markets and the stability of beta risk of depository institutions the us economy experienced major regulatory changes in the banking and finance industry with the passage of five major acts over the period 1980 to 1991 this has generated an extensive literature investigating the effects of these changes on the us banking industry in particular this body of research has examined the share market reaction to regulatory changes as well as their impact on the risk return market value and profitability of banking industry stocks generally it has been found that the regulatory changes have had a substantial impact although the effect has not been uniform across all depository institutions this paper extends this literature by analysing the stability of a sample of eighteen us banking industry stock betas across five periods a pre regulatory change period a monetary experiment period a deregulation period a reregulation period and a post regulatory change period based on an analysis of weekly returns we find that the level of bank risk has increased further we also find a tendency towards greater beta instability in both the monetary experiment and deregulation samples the degree of beta instability is lowest in the pre regulatory change and post regulatory change samples overall the monetary experiment and regulatory change coincided with an increased tendency towards beta instability we also compare our results to a randomly selected control sample of non banks and find some more general effects of regulatory change on individual stock betas

financial innovation and the demand for liquid assets note introduction recent innovations in the banking and finance sector have caused great difficulties for the conduct of monetary policy shifts in monetary aggregates unexplained by interest rate behavior when there are financial innovations make it difficult for the monetary authorities either to use an asset demand function in the conduct of monetary policy or to distill information from the behavior of monetary aggregates while the monetary authorities may know the specific innovations they generally do not know how these innovations will affect particular aggregates clearly such knowledge is important and essential since then the monetary authorities can more accurately interpret growth rates of the monetary aggregates and reduce policy mistakes especially when the growth rates of various aggregates differ substantially and the authorities must determine which aggregate is more reflective of general monetary conditions hester 1981 freedman 1983 and pierce 1984 among others have documented and discussed many of the specific financial innovations for the united states and canada as outlined by pierce these innovations generally can be divided into three types i those innovations which have lowered transactions costs for asset purchases and sales ii the emergence of previously unavailable assets and iii those innovations which allow institutions to avoid reserve requirements hester has theoretically analyzed the last of these this paper focuses on the other types of innovations primarily the first transactions or transfer costs are an important aspect of asset demands since most near money assets possess approximately equivalent risk characteristics the two most important features of competing assets are return and liquidity liquidity can be defined as the cost of transfer to an acceptable means of payment over the last decade both relative and absolute transfer costs and thus liquidity have varied dramatically and have generally been reduced this has caused substitutions between assets and thus shifts in monetary aggregates unexplained by macroeconomic variables such as income and interest rates it is such unexplained shifts over the last decade which have caused concern over the appropriate definitions of monetary aggregates

a note on the temporal variability of canadian financial services stock returns abstract we show that financial services stock returns in canada are covariance nonstationary with respect to any benchmark variable and vary negatively with interest rate levels we find that the conditional correlation between financial services stock returns and the market returns varies directly and monotonically with market volatility this result is robust to monetary regime shifts and other sources of high volatility these findings combined with those of kane and unal 1988 for the u s cast considerable doubt on the constant coefficient two index model and its variants to provide reliable estimates of usual risk measures

scenario reduction for futures market trading in electricity markets to make informed decisions in futures markets of electric energy stochastic programming models are commonly used such models treat stochastic processes via a set of scenarios which are plausible realizations throughout the decision making horizon of the stochastic processes the number of scenarios needed to accurately represent the uncertainty involved is generally large which may render the associated stochastic programming problem intractable hence scenario reduction techniques are needed to trim down the number of scenarios while keeping most of the stochastic information embedded in such scenarios this paper proposes a novel scenario reduction procedure that advantageously compares with existing ones for electricity market problems tackled via two stage stochastic programming

timing decisions and the behavior of mutual fund systematic risk the investment performance of professionally managed portfolios in general and mutual funds in particular has been the subject of considerable attention in finance fama 9 has suggested that overall portfolio performance be broken down in such a manner that the individual sources of performance can be identified two basic sources are 1 the ability of the portfolio manager to forecast price movements of individual common stocks relative to stocks in general selectivity or microforecasting and 2 the ability to forecast the direction of the stock market relative to fixed income securities timing or macroforecasting

an empirical investigation of the possibility of stochastic systematic risk in the market model in most empirical work on the market model the parameters of that model are estimated by ordinary least squares effectively assuming that the systematic risk of an asset or portfolio is constant through time however a plausible alternative hypothesis would allow the systematic risk of the stock of a company to vary through time such variation may arise through the influence of either microeconomic factors such as operational changes in the company or changes in the business environment peculiar to the company or macroeconomic factors such as the rate of inflation general business conditions and expectations about relevant future events a detailed discussion of these points is provided by rosenberg and guy 1976a 1976b support for the hypothesis that systematic risk varies through time is provided in the studies by jacob 1971 blume 1975 and fabozzi and francis 1978 in this paper we allow the possibility that systematic risk of an asset is stochastic in principle an attempt to model this stochastic behavior could be made through allowing systematic risk to follow a member of the general arima class of models of box and jenkins 1970 ideally the available data would be employed to suggest a specific model from this general class however this approach has to face very serious we discuss the market model in which the possibility is allowed that beta is stochastic and obeys a first order autoregressive process following a brief discussion of methodological issues in the estimation and testing of such models results are reported on an empirical study of a large sample of monthly returns of common stock we find strong evidence indicating stochastic systematic risk but relatively little evidence against the random coefficient model

lessons of the recession the recession of 1981 82 was the worst since the 1930s the cyclical decline was sharper and deeper in canada than in the united states this paper presents an appraisal of the roles of business cycles abroad and macro economic policies in canada during the recession and the subsequent recovery based on simulations with a macro econometric model the operation of the automatic fiscal stabilizers over this cycle is also examined the extent to which monetary policy and changes in the tax structure can mitigate the effects of deficit reduction measures over the medium term is considered levons de la recession la recession de 1981 82 a e la pire depuis les annees 1930 le cycle s est creuse plus fortement et plus profondement au canada qu aux etats unis ce m6moire evalue a partir de simulations a l aide d un modele macro econometrique les r6les respectifs des cycles economiques dans le reste du monde et des politiques macro economiques au canada dans la conformation de la recession et de la relance qui a suivi on examine le fonctionnement des stabilisateurs fiscaux automatiques tout au long du cycle l auteur examine jusqu a quel point la politique monetaire et les changements dans la structure de la fiscalite peuvent attenuer a moyen terme les effets des mesures adoptees pour reduire le deficit

the s l debacle public policy lessons for bank and thrift regulation this book describes the period of failures of savings and loan associations and sets out a program of policies to prevent future debacles it explains the regulatory actions and inactions that created the incentives for large numbers of thrifts to make excessively risky and ill conceived and in some cases fraudulent and criminal investments it describes the failure of the accounting system to provide adequate information to regulators and in many cases even to the managers of the thrifts themselves concerning the health and riskiness of individual thrifts it also discusses how the regulatory system that had been conceived in an earlier and highly regulated era was overwhelmed in the deregulated environment of the early 1980s it shows how the reforms that were made in response to the growing crisis were too little and too late and finally it offers a set of policy reforms that could prevent future crises in the savings and loan industry this work should be of interest to political and financial economists

interest rate and exchange rate exposures of banking institutions in pre crisis korea this study empirically investigates interest rate and exchange rate exposures of banking institutions in pre crisis korea using the sensitivity of stock returns as a measure of the exposure it is shown that korean commercial banks and merchant banking corporations had been significantly exposed to both interest rate and exchange rate risks and that the subsequent profitability of commercial banks was significantly associated with the degree of pre crisis exposure the evidence suggests that along with the negative exposure of banking institutions the sharp depreciation of the korean won and high interest rates at the end of 1997 further deteriorated the banking sector s capital adequacy worsening the financial crisis the korean case highlights the importance of upgrading financial supervision and risk management practices as a precondition for successful financial liberalization

deposit insurance regulation and moral hazard in the thrift industry evidence from the 1930 s this paper compares risk taking of insured and uninsured thrifts operating under strict and less strict regulatory regimes during the 1930 s analysis of balance sheet data indicates that while newly insured thrifts undertook less risk than their uninsured counterparts possibly because of screening by deposit insurance authorities moral hazard emerged gradually insured institutions operating under relatively permissive regulatory regimes were more prone to undertake risky lending activities than their more tightly regulated counterparts possibly because of screening by deposit insurance authorities moral hazard emerged gradually insured institutions operating under relatively premissive regulatory regimes were more prone to undertake risky lending activities than their more tightly regulated counterparts given the current system of deposit insurance the results suggest that effective regulation and supervision will play a key role in maintaining thrift stability in the 1990s copyright 1992 by american economic association

thrift stock returns and portfolio interest rate sensitivity abstract in practice the interest rate sensitivity of depository institution di net worth is measured in terms of maturity mismatches arising from nominal contracts in their financial portfolios academic studies also frequently invoke nominal contracting to explain a positive covariation observed between di stock returns and bond returns for a sample of thrifts reporting detailed financial data 1984 1992 this study estimates monthly changes in their financial portfolio values due to changes in interest rates these portfolio value changes are found to be unimportant in explaining the thrifts stock returns and are unable to account for a positive covariation between the stock returns and bond market returns potential weaknesses in the tests seem inadequate to explain the results explanations other than nominal contracting may warrant more consideration in relating dis net worth to interest rate changes

fair value accounting effects on banks earnings volatility regulatory capital and value of contractual cash flows abstract we investigate fair value accounting critics assertions by restating earnings and regulatory capital to reflect banks disclosed investment securities fair values we find 1 fair value based earnings are more volatile than historical cost earnings but share prices do not reflect the incremental volatility 2 banks violate regulatory capital requirements more frequently under under fair value than historical cost accounting fair value based violations help predict regulatory capital violations but share prices do not reflect this potential increased regulatory risk only historical cost violations are market information events 3 share prices reflect interest rates changes even though investment securities contractual cash flows are fixed

the effects of ownership on bank efficiency in latin america in recent years many countries have privatised their state owned banks and encouraged foreign investment this article investigates the roles of state and private ownership and foreign and domestic ownership on the performance of banks across latin america using a range of financial and economic ratios data envelopment analysis dea and regression modelling the study reveals that by 2001 there was surprisingly little difference in performance between state owned and privately owned banks and between foreign and domestically owned banks the study also reports significantly different levels of bank performance in different latin american countries suggesting that country differences outweighed ownership differences in explaining performance

the redistributive effects of inflation and the shape of money demand abstract i quantify the distributional effects of expected inflation in a sample of oecd countries using a microfounded model of money where agents differ in their consumption risk against which they can insure using money and government bonds the model is calibrated using harmonized wealth microdata from the luxembourg wealth study i find that the inflation tax is progressive for low inflation levels but it becomes regressive as inflation increases cut off points vary across countries and depend on discount factors and heterogeneity in consumption risk across agents moreover i find that the magnitude of inflation s distributional impact depends not only on wealth distribution but also and importantly on the curvature and height of the money demand curve indeed a higher and less elastic money demand leads to more regressive effects of inflation thus implying such effects are not necessarily stronger in a country with a more unequal wealth distribution

financial innovations and the interest elasticity of money demand in canada abstract using canadian data for the period 1934 86 the paper empirically tests the gurley shaw hypothesis that innovations in the financial markets raise the interest elasticity of money demand the results provide sufficient evidence to reject the gurley shaw hypothesis in canada

predicting risk some new generalizations existing adjustment techniques for forecasting systematic risk of individual firms have been based on relatively uniformative prior knowledge about the cross sectional distribution of risk estimates this study introduces prior information in the form of size and industry based cross sectional distributions of risk estimates such information is incorporated into forecasts using familiar and generalized adjustment techniques the latter being based on recently developed multiple shrinkage methods improved forecast performance results

innovations in interest rates duration transformation and bank stock returns this paper studies the cross sectional variation in the sensitivity of bank stock returns to interest rate innovations an econometric framework is developed to estimate the mismatch between asset and liability durations the innovation sensitivity is then related to duration transformation the results indicate that banks are exposed to interest rate risk and that the innovation sensitivity is positively related to duration transformation copyright 1992 by ohio state university press

interest rate sensitivity in the common stocks of financial intermediaries a methodological note several studies used a multi factor model to examine the interest rate sensitivity of a finan cial intermediary s common stock the model was re specified in an attempt to estimate each factor s influence this note shows that the re specification results in biased estima tors hypothesis tests are flawed by failure to acknowledge the bias this casts doubt upon the reported findings

stochastic factor model for electricity spot price the case of the nordic market this paper presents a stochastic factor based approach to mid term modeling of spot prices in deregulated electricity markets the fundamentals affecting the spot price are modeled independently and a market equilibrium model combines them to form spot price main advantage of the model is the transparency of the generated prices because each underlying factor and the dynamics between factors can be modeled and studied in detail paper shows realistic numerical examples on the forerunner scandinavian electricity market the model is used to price an exotic electricity derivative

exploiting the conditional density in estimating the term structure an application to the cox ingersoll and ross model we propose an empirical method that utilizes the conditional density of the state variables to estimate and test a term structure model with known price formulae using data on both discount and coupon bonds the method is applied to an extension of a two factor model due to cox ingersoll and ross 1985 cir our results show that estimates based on only bills imply unreasonably large price errors for longer maturities we reject the original cir model using a likelihood ratio test and conclude that the extended cir model also fails to provide a good description of the treasury market

interest rate uncertainty and the financial intermediary s choice of exposure the financial intermediary s choice of operating as a broker with minimal risk exposure or as an asset transformer with interest rate risk is modeled as a funds inventory decision made prior to the resolution of uncertainty regarding the borrowing or lending interest rates it is shown that an increase in the interest rate uncertainty leads the intermediary to reduce its exposure thereby offering decreased asset transformation and more brokerage services however a stochastic increase in the interest rates leads to greater asset transformation and less brokerage services the high and volatile nominal interest rates associated with contemporary inflation have prompted a pronounced change in commercial bank balance sheets low cost deposits have been replaced by alternative funding vehicles bearing high and increasingly variable interest rates see budzeika 3 4 kane 9 and silber 13 in an apparent adaptive response to the loss of deposits banks have eschewed fixed rate loans in favor of variable rate lending thereby more closely matching the durations of their assets and liabilities see flannery 6 and boltz and campbell 2 this change in bank lending practices has been popularly interpreted as an effort to immunize cash flows in the face of increased interest rate uncertainty see haley 8 and wojnilower 15 however apart from niehans and hewson 11 the adaptive recomposition of bank balance sheets has not been formally addressed in this paper we provide a model of balance sheet duration mismatching and then show that an increase in interest rate volatility is likely to lead an intermediary to choose a balance sheet that is more closely matched 1 balance sheet mismatching can be understood in terms of the two basic functions of financial intermediaries as explained by niehans 10 brokerage and asset transformation if a financial intermediary precisely matches the properties of its assets and liabilities and thereby maintains a perfectly hedged position it functions exclusively as a broker joining borrowers and lenders without assuming any risk the broker s function is then simply to reduce the search costs associated with joining complementary transactors the brokerage function is deshmukh is professor of managerial economics and decision sciences greenbaum is harold l stuart professor of banking and finance and kanatas is assistant professor of finance all at northwestern university s j l kellogg graduate school of management we gratefully acknowledge the helpful suggestions of michael brennan and an anonymous referee this project was supported by the banking research center and the kellogg center for advanced study in managerial economics and decision sciences

some empirical tests of the theory of arbitrage pricing we estimate the parameters of ross s arbitrage pricing theory apt using daily return data during the 1963 78 period we compare the evidence on the apt and the capital asset pricing model capm as implemented by market indices and find that the apt performs well the theory is further supported in that estimated expected returns depend on estimated factor loadings and variables such as own variance and firm size do not contribute additional explanatory power to that of the factor loadings

unstable money demand and the monetary model of the exchange rate in this paper the authors investigate the importance for the monetary model of exchange rate determination of j frankel 1979 of allowing unrestricted dynamics and of accounting for shifts in the demand for money due to financial innovation based on estimation and simulation results for the canada u s bilateral exchange rate over the 1970 85 period the aut hors find strong evidence in favor of a generalized approach to dynamic specification but find that the shif t adjustment of official money supply data has only minor implications for the empirical results moreover neither modification is sufficient to generate a monetary model that is well supported by the data

optional forward contracts for electric power markets this paper extends the idea of callable forward contracts which are potentially useful as demand side interruptible load contracts to their supply side analogues together these contracts allow market participants to take advantage of flexibility in generation or consumption to obtain a monetary benefit while simultaneously removing the risk of market price fluctuations this paper also considers the effects of strategic behavior on the part of market participants in their contract sales purchase decisions

returns to acquirers of privatizing financial services firms an international examination abstract while the literature reports improved performance for privatizing firms banking markets are different many privatizing financial services firms face unique problems such as an overhang of problem loans and weak credit cultures and legal systems we investigate the returns to successful bidders in privatization acquisitions of financial services firms examine short horizon performance and test whether such acquisitions result in a change in risk for the bidding firm our results show that the cumulative abnormal returns to shareholders of bidding firms are positive perhaps reflecting initial optimism that the foreign firm acquiring the privatizing firm would share in the success associated with privatization bidders also experience an increase in their total risk following the acquisition

jump processes in commodity futures prices and options pricing empirical evidence shows that log return relatives on commodity futures prices are not normally distributed this departure from normality seems to be caused by large price changes occurring in the commodity markets with the arrival of important new information this suggests that a jump diffusion model may be a plausible choice for modeling the stochastic process underlying commodity option prices merton 1976a develops a jump diffusion option pricing model assuming that jump risk is unsystematic however the jump diffusion model developed by bates 1991 is more appropriate for commodity option pricing since it allows jump risk to be systematic in this article recent transactions data on futures and futures options are used to test out of sample options using american versions of black s diffusion and bates s jump diffusion models the results show that bates s model performs considerably better than black s model jump diffusion asian option prices are also shown to differ considerably from geometric brownian motion asian option prices

managing the financial risks of electricity producers using options abstract electricity producers participating in electricity markets face risks pertaining to both selling prices and the availability of the production units among electricity derivatives options represent an adequate instrument to manage these risks in this paper we propose a multi stage stochastic model to determine the optimal selling strategy of a risk averse electricity producer including options forward contracts and pool trading a detailed case study highlights the advantages of an option vs a forward contract to hedge against the financial risks related to pool prices and unexpected unit failures

the effects of didmca on bank stockholders returns and risk abstract in this paper we examine the effects of the 1980 didmca on bank stockholders returns and risk while at the time of the announcement both commercial banks and thrifts appeared to benefit measured by abnormal returns over a longer period of time surrounding the announcement week it is evident that thrift stockholders were the primary beneficiaries of the acts passage when the effects of didmca on risk was analysed it was found that after the act s passage the total return risk of both money center and regional banks increased while that for thrifts decreased however some of the beneficial effects of the act appear to have been mitigated by an increase in the absolute size of unexpected interest rate risk in the post enactment period

power portfolio optimization in deregulated electricity markets with risk management in a deregulated electric power system multiple markets of different time scales exist with various power supply instruments a load serving entity lse has multiple choices from these instruments to meet its load obligations in view of the large amount of power involved the complex market structure the risks in such volatile markets the stringent constraints to be satisfied and the long time horizon a power portfolio optimization problem is of critical importance for an lse to serve its load maximize its profit and manage its risks in this paper a midterm power portfolio optimization problem with risk management is presented key instruments are considered risk terms based on semi variances of spot market transactions are introduced and penalties on load obligation violations are added to the objective function to improve algorithm convergence and constraint satisfaction to overcome the inseparability of the resulting problem a surrogate optimization framework is developed enabling a decomposition and coordination approach numerical testing results show that our method effectively provides decisions for various instruments to maximize profit and manage risks and it is computationally efficient

hedging with futures contracts in a deregulated electricity industry this paper is a statistical study of direct and cross hedging strategies using futures contracts in an electricity market a comparison of the strategies is based on the standard deviation or risk of the values of the hedging positions results indicate that the use of electricity futures contracts is superior to using other related futures contracts such as crude oil

hedging strategies in energy markets the case of electricity retailers as market intermediaries electricity retailers buy electricity from the wholesale market or self generate for re sale on the retail market electricity retailers are uncertain about how much electricity their residential customers will use at any time of the day until they actually turn switches on while demand uncertainty is a common feature of all commodity markets retailers generally rely on storage to manage demand uncertainty on electricity markets retailers are exposed to joint quantity and price risk on an hourly basis given the physical singularity of electricity as a commodity in the literature on electricity markets few articles deal on intra day hedging portfolios to manage joint price and quantity risk whereas electricity markets are hourly markets the contributions of the article are twofold first we define through a var and cvar model optimal portfolios for specific hours 3 am 6 am 12 pm based on electricity market data from 2001 to 2011 for the french market we prove that the optimal hedging strategy differs depending on the cluster hour secondly we demonstrate the significantly superior efficiency of intra day hedging portfolios over daily therefore weekly and yearly portfolios over a decade 2001 2011 our results clearly show that the losses of an optimal daily portfolio are at least nine times higher than the losses of optimal intra day portfolios

an investigation of capital market reactions to pronouncements on fair value accounting this paper examines the impact of twenty three pronouncements related to fair value accounting fva rules on equity prices of financial institutions the results document that announcements that signal an increased decreased probability of issuance of fva standards produce negative positive abnormal stock price reactions for sample banks further the magnitude of the stock price reactions is negatively related to a bank s primary capital ratio and positively related to the ratio of the book value of the investment portfolio to total assets and the ratio of the difference between the market and book value of the investment portfolio to total assets

impact of unit failure on forward contracting a generating unit can sell its production in the pool facing the financial risk inherent to volatile pool prices alternatively it can sell its production through the futures market at comparatively stable but smaller average prices unlike the pool forward contracts involve an obligation to sell during a specified time period and if the unit fails it should buy energy from the pool to meet its futures market commitments hence taking into account its forced outage rate the unit should determine the appropriate mix of pool and futures market involvement so that its expected profit is maximized for a prespecified risk level on profit variability within this context this paper analyzes the impact of the degree of unavailability of the generating unit on its forward contracting decisions a detailed case study illustrates the analysis performed

portfolio optimization of renewable energy assets hydro wind and photovoltaic energy in the regulated market in brazil abstract this study proposes a methodology for risk analysis and portfolio optimization of power generation assets with hydro wind and solar power considering the regulated contracting environment and the mechanism for reallocation of energy in brazil innovative stochastic models are used to generate synthetic time series for the random variables water inflow wind speed solar irradiance temperature of the photovoltaic panel and average generation capacity of the mechanism for reallocation of energy the simulation is implemented using the monte carlo method associated with a cholesky decomposition an economic approach is presented taking into account taxation and financing as well as the markowitz portfolio theory the results show that the initial correlation between the energy resources is altered by the cash flow model and mainly by the debt in the diversification process the complementarity between sources helps to reduce the economic risk the increase in debt increases the correlation decreases the return and risk and consequently affects the diversification process and economic results the mechanism for reallocation of energy significantly reduces the hydroelectric economic risk and increases the financial return which directly benefits the formation of portfolios

volatility and price jumps in agricultural futures prices evidence from wheat options revised version published in american journal of agricultural economics vol 86 number 4 november 2004 1018 1031

the e v stationarity of secure returns some empirical evidence abstract the joint hypothesis that the expected return vector and the variance covariance matrix of returns are intertemporally stationary is rejected for the monthly return data for securities included on the crsp file this finding is robust in that it is invariant to the type of sampling procedure used and to whether nominal or real security returns are used in contrast the hypothesis that the correlation matrix of returns is intertemporally stationary could not be rejected for the same samples of securities

the sensitivity of bank stock returns to market interest and exchange rate risks abstract this paper presents and estimates a multifactor model of bank stock returns that incorporates market return interest rate and exchange rate risk factors a model of the optimizing behavior of an international banking firm is used to derive the sensitivity coefficients of the alternative factors regression equations are estimated that are based on either actual or unexpected values of the underlying factors with a post october 1979 time dummy variable and with a money center bank dummy variable standard results are obtained for the market and interest rate variables while new results are derived for the exchange rate variable the specific effects of the latter variable are found to be dependent on the time period of observation and the money center status of banks

constructing forward price curves in electricity markets we present and analyze a method for constructing approximated high resolution forward price curves in electricity markets because a limited number of forward or futures contracts are traded in the market only a limited picture of the theoretical continuous forward price curve is available to the analyst our method combines the information contained in observed bid and ask prices with information from the forecasts generated by bottom up models as an example we use information concerning the shape of the seasonal variation from a bottom up model to improve the forward price curve quoted on the nordic power exchange

multimarket contact competition and pricing in banking abstract in this paper we assess the impact of multimarket contact of banks on their market power by means of a simultaneous equation model in which the divergence of price from marginal cost is a function of multimarket linkages the model is estimated using aggregate data from the italian regions for the years 1997 2009 our results show that multimarket contact is positively and significantly correlated to the market power index and is also connected to both home and non home market concentration the evidence is robust to changes in model specification and multimarket contact measures and supports the idea that firms which have a greater amount of contact are more likely to collude

pricing of contracts for difference in the nordic market abstract the purpose of this paper is to give an introduction to and a pricing analysis of a new forward locational price differential product contracts for difference cfd introduced the 17th of november 2000 at nord pool the nordic electricity exchange to our knowledge there is no literature available of how the nordic cfds are priced the cfd is a forward market product with reference to the difference between the future seasonal area price and system price by using available historical trading prices and spot prices for four seasonal contracts and one yearly contract we analyze the relationships between the contract prices and the value of the underlying asset for the first four seasonal contracts it appears that cfds traded at nord pool are mostly over priced relative to the underlying asset pricing theory for forward contracts explains this by the presence of a majority of risk averse consumers who are willing to pay a risk premium for receiving the future price differential we utilize statistical analysis with regard to the contract prices and the underlying asset and find some interesting relationships the analysis is preliminary due to the fact that the cfd market is relatively new

good volatility bad volatility what drives the asymmetric connectedness of australian electricity markets efficient delivery of network services and the electricity infrastructure to meet the long term consumer s interests are the main objectives and the strategies of a national electricity market while the main interests of generators are to maximize their profit through pricing strategies therefore the objective of this study is to explore whether electricity prices across the four australian states display symmetric price volatility connectedness the study is the first attempt in the literature to make use of intraday 5 min australian dispatch electricity prices spanning the period december 8th 1998 to may 5th 2016 to quantify asymmetries in volatility connectedness emerging from good and bad volatility the results provide supportive evidence that the australian electricity markets are connected asymmetrically implying the presence of some degree of market power that is exercised by generators across regional electricity markets

market interest rates and commercial bank profitability an empirical investigation the widespread notion that commercial banks borrow short and lend long implies that sharp market interest rate increases may induce a significant number of banking failures this paper develops a method for estimating average asset and liability maturities for a sample of large money center banks regression models are tested to determine if market rate fluctuations have a significant impact on bank profitability the conclusion is negative large banks have effectively hedged themselves against market rate risk by assembling asset and liability portfolios with similar average maturities the impact of market interest rates on commercial bank revenues costs and profitability has increasingly concerned economists and policymakers as financial market conditions have become more volatile in recent years the widespread notion that depository intermediaries borrow short and lend long implies that rapid market rate increases may induce an unacceptable number of financial firm failures monetary policy discussions have reflected this concern for many years the federal reserve board considered stable market rates a goal or at least an intermediate target of monetary policy the extent to which money market conditions are permitted to fluctuate in the short run is also affected by the unique role of the federal reserve system as the nation s lender of last resort liquidity pressures ultimately devolve on the money market and the federal reserve has a responsibility for maintaining orderly conditions in that market

some further evidence on the stochastic properties of systematic risk although there is consensus in the finance literature that the beta risk of equity securities is stochastic there is considerable disagreement as to whether the var iation is purely random or exhibits autocorrelation through time to investigate this issue the authors employ a model that allows beta t o exhibit both random and autoregressive behavior simultaneously the y test this model against alternative specifications on a large sampl e of individual securities and randomly formed portfolios comprising 10 50 and 100 securities results are also presented for portfolios formed according to firm size copyright 1987 by the university of chicago

hedge fund risk dynamics implications for performance appraisal accurate appraisal of hedge fund performance must recognize the freedom with which managers shift asset classes strategies and leverage in response to changing market conditions and arbitrage opportunities the standard measure of performance is the abnormal return defined by a hedge fund s exposure to risk factors if exposures are assumed constant when in fact they vary through time estimated abnormal returns may be incorrect we employ an optimal changepoint regression that allows risk exposures to shift and illustrate the impact on performance appraisal using a sample of live and dead funds during the period january 1994 through december 2005