household level spillover effects from biofuels evidence from castor in ethiopia the indirect effects of biofuels are mostly considered negative in this paper we argue that there may be a positive indirect effect of biofuels on food security and poverty using micro level evidence and a matched plot pair design through which we control for plot and farmer characteristics we show that the introduction of castor production for biofuel in a poor country as ethiopia can significantly improve food productivity of rural households who produce raw material for biofuel production this spillover seems particularly linked to enhanced access to inputs and technical assistance which were provided as part of biofuel feedstock production contracts our results thus document another mechanism through which biofuels may influence smallholders food security a mechanism that did not receive attention so far

a generalized measure of riskiness this paper proposes a generalized measure of riskiness that nests the original measures pioneered by aumann and serrano aumann r j r serrano 2008 an economic index of riskiness j political econom 116 5 810 836 and foster and hart foster d p s hart 2009 an operational measure of riskiness j political econom 117 5 785 814 the paper introduces the generalized options implied measure of riskiness based on the risk neutral return distribution of financial securities it also provides asset allocation implications and shows that the forward looking measures of riskiness successfully predict the cross section of 1 3 6 and 12 month ahead risk adjusted returns of individual stocks the empirical results indicate that the generalized measure of riskiness is able to rank equity portfolios based on their expected returns per unit of risk and hence yields a more efficient strategy for maximizing expected return of the portfolio while minimizing its risk this paper was accepted by wei xiong finance

option implied objective measures of market risk foster and hart 2009 introduce an objective measure of the riskiness of an asset that implies a bound on how much of one s wealth is safe to invest in the asset while a s guaranteeing no bankruptcy in the long run in this study we translate the foster hart measure from static and abstract gambles to dynamic and applied finance using nonparametric estimation of risk neutral densities from s p 500 call and put option prices covering 2003 to 2013 this exercise results in an option implied market view of objective riskiness the dynamics of the resulting option implied foster hart bound are analyzed and assessed in light of well known risk measures including value at risk expected shortfall and risk neutral volatility the new measure is shown to be a significant predictor of ahead return downturns furthermore it is able to grasp more characteristics of the risk neutral probability distributions than other measures furthermore exhibiting predictive consistency the robustness of the risk neutral density estimation method is analyzed via a bootstrap

comparing risks by acceptance and rejection stochastic dominance is a partial order on risky assets gambles that is based on the uniform preference of all decision makers in an appropriate class for one gamble over another we modify this requirement first by taking into account the status quo given by the current wealth and the possibility of rejecting gambles and second by comparing rejections that are substantive i e uniform over wealth levels or over utilities this yields two new stochastic orders wealth uniform dominance and utility uniform dominance unlike stochastic dominance these two orders are complete any two gambles can be compared moreover they are equivalent to the orders induced by respectively the aumann serrano index of riskiness and the foster hart measure of riskiness

program trading and expiration day effects the arbitrage between index futures and the underlying cash index and the cash settlement feature of index futures contracts which requires arbitrageurs to unwind positions in the stock market are thought to be at the heart of the abnormal stock price movements during the triple witching hour the last hour of trading on days on which index futures index options and options on index futures expire simultaneously during 1984 and 1985 volume was substantially higher than normal in the last hour of trading on those quarterly fridays open interest in the expiring futures contracts on the expiration day amounted to about 40 per cent of the average month end open interest the incremental stock market volume however was approximately one third the volume that would be inmplied if the entire expiration day open interest were traded in the stock market analysis of stock market price changes in the last hour of expiration days and the first halfhour of the following day indicates that the volatility of price changes was significantly higher on expiration days with the stock market tending to fall stocks not in the sp index option expirations themselves did not lead to abnormal market movements when the magnitude of price effects was measured by the degree of reversal in prices on the morning after the expiration day the average magnitude of the price effect in the 10 most recent quarterly futures contract expirations examined was about 0 4 per cent of the closing index value at expiration the average expiration day price effect of 0 4 per cent is not large considering that a price impact of approximately 0 25 per cent of the value of the transaction can be expected on the basis of the bid ask spread once this market impact cost is drawn out the average expiration day price impact falls to about 0 15 per cent of the value of the transaction an amount representing the additional cost of liquidity furthermore price impacts in excess of those found on expiration days are frequently encountered in large block transactions where the cost of providing liquidity also increases on expiration days however transactions in many stocks occur simultaneously so the market as a whole is affected

changing the economics of environmental degradation in madagascar lessons from the national environmental action plan process abstract this paper examines the economic logic and implicit assumptions used to develop and support the national environmental action plan neap process in madagascar the study focuses on three key issues how were the costs of the main environmental problems identified and estimated what underlying factors were identified as causing these problems and how is the neap implementation strategy designed to change these underlying factors the most difficult tasks for neaps will continue to be identifying the key specific underlying factors causing the problem and determining which of these factors are actually feasible for a neap process to change the analysis of the madagascar makes clear that key environmental problems are driven by land use decisions of large numbers of geographically dispersed rural and urban inhabitants these problems are not easy or even feasible targets for specific environmental policy changes if this is the case as it seems to be in madagascar then it is perhaps unrealistic to hope that neaps as constituted can provide a framework for both understanding and alleviating a country s key environmental problems

trading mechanisms and stock returns an empirical investigation this paper examines the effects of the mechanism by which securities are traded on their price behavior we compare the behavior of open to open and close to close returns on nyse stocks given the differences in execution methods applied in the opening and closing transactions opening returns are found to exhibit greater dispersion greater deviations from normality and a more negative and significant autocorrelation pattern than closing returns we study the effects of the bid ask spread and the price adjustment process on the estimated return variances and covariances and discuss the associated biases we conclude that the trading mechanism has a significant effect on stock price behavior

foster hart optimal portfolios we reinvestigate the classic portfolio optimization problem where the notion of portfolio risk is captured by the foster hart risk a new bankruptcy proof reserve based measure of risk extremely sensitive to left tail events foster and hart 2009 to include financial market frictions induced by market microstructure we employ a general ex ante transaction cost function with fixed linear and quadratic penalty terms in the objective function we represent the us equity market by the dow jones industrial average djia index and study the performance of the foster hart optimal djia portfolio in order to capture the skewed and leptokurtotic nature of real life stock returns we model the returns of the djia constituents as an arma garch process with multivariate normal tempered stable innovations we demonstrate that the foster hart optimal portfolio s performance is superior to those obtained under several techniques currently in use in academia and industry

substitution risk aversion taste shocks and equity premia this paper gauges the relative contribution of risk aversion inter temporal substitution and taste shocks on postwar monthly us equity premia the time varying consumption market and taste risks involved in the euler equations are recovered from a common factor garch process and the mle are obtained by applying the kalman filter empirically 1 the market risk is the only source of risk that does not statistically affect the equity premia and thus the hypothesis that the coefficient of relative risk aversion corresponds to the reciprocal of the elasticity of inter temporal substitution is not rejected 2 the estimates are reasonable so that the equity premium puzzle is circumvented and 3 taste risks are quantitatively important in capturing excess returns movements 1998 john wiley sons ltd

contract farming in staple food chains the case of rice in benin abstract in this paper we analyze the impact of smallholder participation in a contract farming scheme in the rice sector in benin we use data from a cross sectional farm household survey and different propensity score matching estimations to reveal how participation in a contract farming scheme affects smallholder rice production we find that contract farming results in expansion of the rice area intensification of rice production increased commercialization of rice and higher farm gate prices and ultimately contributes to rice output growth and increased income our findings imply that contract farming can contribute to upgrading the rice supply chain and the development of the rice sector in benin promoting and supporting the spread of contract farming schemes in the sector might be an effective way to contribute to reaching the government goals of expanding rice production to become self sufficient and improving rice quality to compete with imported rice while there is a large empirical literature on contract farming in high value and commodity export sectors studies on contract farming in staple food sectors are very scarce our results document that contract farming for staple food crops can be sustainable and benefit smallholder farmers which is against theoretical expectations that contracting for staple food crops is not feasible because of contract enforcement problems that stem from a low value of produce low storage and transport costs and a larger number of buyers in the chain our study contributes to understanding the role that contract farming might play in the much needed upgrading of domestic and staple food crop sectors in developing countries

consolidation fragmentation and market performance this paper studies the impact of market consolidation or fragmentation on its performance examining four alternative models of exchange a consolidated clearing house fragmented clearing houses a monopoly dealer market and an interdealer market the effects of the market mechanism on the expected quantity traded the price variance faced by individual traders the quality of market price signals the expected gains from trade and the exchange implementation costs are studied

volume volatility and new york stock exchange trading halts trading halts increase rather than reduce both volume and volatility volume volatility in the first full trading day after a trading halt is 230 percent 50 to 115 percent higher than following pseudohalts nonhalt control periods matched on time of day duration and absolute net of market returns these results are robust over different halt types and news categories higher posthalt volume is observed into the third day while higher posthalt volatility decays within hours the extent of media coverage is a partial determinant of volume and volatility following both halts and pseudohalts but a separate halt effect remains after controlling for the media effect in the wake of the 1987 market break a number of commentators including the presidential task force on market mechanisms recommended the establishment of circuit breaker mechanisms the primary argument supporting circuit breakers both price limits and trading halts is that nontrading periods provide an opportunity for normal information transmission in times of market duress proponents of circuit breakers claim that during major price changes there can be a breakdown in the transmission of information between the trading floor and market participants therefore the primary function of a circuit breaker should be to reinform participants greenwald and stein 1988 p 17 by lowering informational asymmetries between traders halts could permit the orderly emergence of a new consensus price but would informative trading halts succeed many academics are openly suspicious of any kind of market interference and assume that trading halts are guilty until proven innocent grossman 1990 p 3 for example argues that the closing of markets merely prevents consenting adults from carrying out their desires on the floor of the stock exchange not only do halts impose a liquidity cost on traders but studies suggest that information will not be as

order consolidation price efficiency and extreme liquidity shocks we show that the consolidation of orders is important for producing efficient prices especially during times of high liquidity demand the nyse s centralized opening call market performs better than nasdaq s decentralized opening process on typical trading days the nyse is much better than nasdaq on witching days when index arbitrage activity subjects s p 500 stocks to large predictable and mostly informationless order flow around quarterly futures contract expirations nasdaq opening price efficiency improves to nyse levels once nasdaq initiates a consolidated opening call in november 2004 but prices on the decentralized nasdaq remain less efficient at other times of day

the value of trading consolidation evidence from the exercise of warrants we study the effect of trading consolidation by examining the response of liquidity and stock price to the exercise of deep in the money corporate warrants this enables a relatively clean test of the value of trading consolidation the exercise at the warrant expiration is fully anticipated and has no information content an effect can come from the value of trading consolidation that improves liquidity indeed we find that liquidity and stock prices both increase significantly at warrant expiration further the price increase is positively related to the pre exercise extent of fragmentation to post exercise improvement in stock liquidity and to the proportional increase in the number of shares following the warrant exercise

quantifying spillover effects from large land based investment the case of mozambique summary almost a decade after a spike in land demand following the 2007 08 commodity boom evidence on impacts of this phenomenon remains limited and mostly case study based we show that information on location and start data of large farms combined with existing smallholder farm surveys allows to complement this with a difference in difference approach to systematically assess spillovers from large farm establishment illustrative application to mozambique suggests positive short term effects from newly established large farms on adoption of agricultural practices and input use by small farms less than 50 km from newly established large operations robustness checks for crop farms only also suggest job creation in the proximity of newly established crop but not livestock farms yet large farm establishment decreased perceived well being within a 25 km band and in the time horizon considered here did not lead to better access to output markets cultivation of larger areas or once other factors are controlled for higher yields this allows us to reject the notion of negative spillovers from large farm establishment but casts doubt on the wisdom of large unconditional subsidies to attract investors in addition to drawing policy conclusions for mozambique we highlight the methodology s wider applicability and scope for expansion

distributional effects of agricultural cooperatives in china exclusion of smallholders and potential gains on participation abstract this paper examines the treatment effects of the agricultural cooperative and publicly funded extension services on individual household economy using data collected by the author from watermelon producing farm households in rural nanjing the cooperative addressed in this study restricts the participation of small scale farmers implying that selection into the program must be taken into consideration for an accurate assessment of the treatment effect the econometric analysis revealed that government extension services have a modest effect on farm income in contrast the treatment effect of the agricultural cooperative is robust and substantially large accounting for nearly 70 of the pre matching difference this suggests that the agricultural cooperative system is an important avenue for farmers to improve their economic status the treatment effect of the agricultural cooperative is highly heterogeneous the economic benefits arising from the cooperative are significant only for small scale farms we can argue that a coexistence of smallholder exclusion and the treatment effect in favor of small scale farms poses serious challenges to pro poor agricultural growth in china

farmer participation in supermarket channels production technology and efficiency the case of vegetables in kenya supermarkets are gaining ground in agrifood systems of many developing countries while recent research has analyzed income effects in the small farm sector impacts on productivity and efficiency have hardly been studied we use a meta frontier approach and combine this with propensity score matching to estimate treatment effects among vegetable farmers in kenya participation in supermarket channels increases farm productivity in terms of meta technology ratios by 45 we also find positive and significant impacts on technical efficiency and scale efficiency supermarket expansion therefore presents opportunities for agricultural growth in the small farm sector which is crucial for poverty reduction in africa copyright 2012 oxford university press

biofuels and food security micro evidence from ethiopia abstract there is considerable controversy about the impact of biofuels on food security in developing countries a major concern is that biofuels reduce food security by increasing food prices in this paper we use survey evidence to assess the impact of castor production on poor and food insecure rural households in ethiopia about 1 3 of poor farmers have allocated on average 15 of their land to the production of castor beans under contract in biofuel supply chains castor production significantly improves their food security they have fewer months without food and the amount of food they consume increases castor cultivation is beneficial for participating households food security in several ways by generating cash income from castor contracts they can store food for the lean season castor beans preserve well on the field which allows sales when farmers are in need of cash or food spillover effects of castor contracts increases the productivity of food crops increased food crop productivity offsets the amount of land used for castor so that the total local food supply is not affected

an intertemporal general equilibrium model of asset prices this paper develops a continuous time general equilibrium model of a simple but complete economy and uses it to examine the behavior of asset prices in this model asset prices and their stochastic properties are determined endogenously one principal result is a partial differential equation which asset prices must satisfy the solution of this equation gives the equilibrium price of any asset in terms of the underlying real variables in the economy in this paper we develop a general equilibrium asset pricing model for use in applied research an important feature of the model is its integration of real and financial markets among other things the model endogenously determines the stochastic process followed by the equilibrium price of any financial asset and shows how this process depends on the underlying real variables the model is fully consistent with rational expectations and maximizing behavior on the part of all agents our framework is general enough to include many of the fundamental forces affecting asset markets yet it is tractable enough to be specialized easily to produce specific testable results furthermore the model can be extended in a number of straightforward ways consequently it is well suited to a wide variety of applications for example in a companion paper cox ingersoll and ross 7 we use the model to develop a theory of the term structure of interest rates many studies have been concerned with various aspects of asset pricing under uncertainty the most relevant to our work are the important papers on intertemporal asset pricing by merton 19 and lucas 16 working in a continuous time framework merton derives a relationship among the equilibrium expected rates of return on assets he shows that when investment opportunities are changing randomly over time this relationship will include effects which have no analogue in a static one period model lucas considers an economy with homogeneous individuals and a single consumption good which is produced by a number of processes the random output of these processes is exogenously determined and perishable assets are defined as claims to all or a part of the output of a process and the equilibrium determines the asset prices our theory draws on some elements of both of these papers like merton we formulate our model in continuous time and make full use of the analytical tractability that this affords the economic structure of our model is somewhat similar to that of lucas however we include both endogenous production and

super exponential growth expectations and the global financial crisis we construct risk neutral return probability distributions from s p 500 options data over the decade 2003 2013 separable into pre crisis crisis and post crisis regimes the pre crisis period is characterized by increasing realized and especially option implied returns this translates into transient unsustainable price growth that may be identified as a bubble granger tests detect causality running from option implied returns to treasury bill yields in the pre crisis regime with a lag of a few days and the other way round during the post crisis regime with much longer lags 50 200 days this suggests a transition from an abnormal regime preceding the crisis to a new normal post crisis the difference between realized and option implied returns remains roughly constant prior to the crisis but diverges in the post crisis phase which may be interpreted as an increase of the representative investor s risk aversion

order flow and liquidity around nyse trading halts we study order f low and liquidity around nyse trading halts we find that market and limit order submissions and cancellations increase significantly during trading halts that a large proportion of the limit order book at the reopen is composed of orders submitted during the halt and that the market clearing price at the reopen is a good predictor of future prices depth near the quotes is unusually low around trading halts though specialists and0or f loor traders appear to provide additional liquidity at these times finally specialists appear to spread the quote prior to imbalance halts to convey information to market participants the costs and benef its associated with new york stock exchange trading halts are the subject of continuous debate the stated purpose of trading halts is to allow investors a chance to react to new information and to facilitate the orderly emergence of a new equilibrium price see e g nyse 1999 however little is known about the extent or nature of investor reactions to trading halts furthermore it is unclear whether these reactions support or confound attempts to reach a new equilibrium price to address these issues we use nonpublic nyse data on all superdot electronic orders to analyze the effects of trading halts on order f low spreads and the limit order book we also examine the relationships between the limit order book and the reopening price and between liquidity and post halt volatility information on order f low is an important missing element in the ongoing debate about the usefulness of trading halts one argument against trading halts is that they impede price formation because trading aggregates information that is distributed across market participants however submissions and cancellations of orders during a halt may provide an alternative source of information that combined with published indications of possible reopening prices may assist with price formation an argument in favor of trading halts is that when traders are given an opportunity to cancel orders

the interaction of population growth and environmental quality an important question for policy is whether holding constant per capita income and other relevant factors population pressures have a significant effect upon environmental degradation the authors examine the effect of population pressures upon deforestation in 64 developing countries in an attempt to provide relevant empirical findings data on deforestation were drawn from the food and agriculture organizations production yearbook results suggest that a relationship exists between per capita income and deforestation and that for africa rural population density shifts the relationship upward the increase in the rate of deforestation levels off as income increases the rate of growth in per capita income also has a significant negative impact upon deforestation although the magnitude of the effect is small the authors close in stressing that reducing the rate of population growth is not necessarily the best way to reduce the rate of deforestation deforestation in developing countries is really a problem of market failure since property rights are often neither defined nor enforced there is essentially no private cost of deforestation with no long term stake in the land people have no incentive to use land efficiently this situation must be addressed in conjunction with the problems of poverty and population growth

opening and closing the market evidence from the london stock exchange we investigate the performance of call markets at the open and close using a unique natural experiment provided by the london stock exchange where traders can choose between a call and an off exchange dealership system although the call market dominates dealers in terms of price discovery it suffers from a high failure rate to open and close trading especially when trading conditions are difficult the call s trading costs increase with asymmetric information slow trading order flow imbalances and uncertainty traders resort to use of call auctions is negatively correlated with firm size implying that the call may not be the optimal method for opening and closing trading of medium and small sized stocks

certification of semi forest coffee as a land sharing strategy in ethiopia abstract we analyze whether private sustainability standards can improve the economic benefits from less intensified semi forest coffee production in southwestern ethiopia we compare garden and semi forest coffee systems including non certified and rainforest alliance certified semi forest coffee and evaluate yields returns to land returns to labor and profits we use original household and plot level survey from 454 households and 758 coffee plots derived from a household survey and geographic information systems and ordinary least squares and fixed effects regression models we find that more intensified garden coffee plots bring about higher yields and returns to land than less intensified semi forest coffee plots and that rainforest alliance certification of semi forest coffee leads to higher returns to land and labor and profits than non certified semi forest and garden coffee mainly by guaranteeing farmers a better price and not by improving yields findings imply that in southwestern ethiopia coffee certification can support farmers incentives for land sharing between coffee production and semi natural forest conservation

land tenure and property rights theory and implications for development policy this article explores the nature of property rights systems their evolution and their effect on resource allocation it is argued that certain institutional arrangements for land rights have evolved in order to reduce uncertainty and increase efficiency in credit as well as in land markets of particular relevance to developing countries the article emphasizes the contribution of public sector infrastructure to effective land rights systems an appendix to the article presents a formal model analyzing the effects of security of land rights on land prices the intensity of cultivation and the use of credit empirical evidence from thailand supports several of the propositions derived from the model

recovering an asset s implied pdf from option prices an application to crude oil during the gulf crisis we develop a general method for estimating the implied martingale equivalent probability density function pdf for futures prices from american options prices the early exercise feature of american options precludes expressing the price of the option in terms of the pdf there exist tight bounds for the price of american options in terms of the pdf we demonstrate how these bounds together with observed option prices can be used to estimate the parameters of the pdf we estimate the distribution for crude oil during the persian gulf crisis and find the distribution differs significantly from that recovered using standard techniques

stock market structure and volatility the procedure for opening stocks on the nyse appears to affect price volatility an analytical framework for assessing the magnitude of the structurally induced volatility is presented the ratio of variance of open to open returns to closeto close returns is shown to be consistently greater than one for nyse common stocks during the period 1982 through 1986 tbe greater volatility at the open is not attributable to the way in which public information is released since both the opento open return and the close to close return span the same period of time instead the greater volatility appears to be attributable to private information revealed in trading and to temporaryprice deviations induced by specialist and other traders the implied cost of immediacy at the open is significantly higher than at the close other empirical evidence in this article documents the volume of trading at the open the time delays between the exchange opening and the first transaction in a stock the difference in daytime volatility versus overnight volatility and the extent to which volatility is related to trading volume

automation versus intermediation evidence from treasuries going off the run this paper examines the choice of trading venue by dealers in u s treasury securities to determine when services provided by human intermediaries are difficult to replicate in fully automated trading systems when treasury securities go off the run their trading volume drops by more than 90 this decline in trading volume allows us to test whether intermediaries knowledge of the market and its participants can uncover hidden liquidity and facilitate better matching of customer orders in less active markets consistent with this hypothesis the market share of electronic intermediaries falls from 81 to 12 when securities go off the run electronic trading systems have been steadily increasing their share of securities trading in almost all financial markets as the amount of automation in financial markets increases it is natural to ask what services human intermediaries provide that are difficult or impossible to replicate in a fully automated trading system existing theory suggests that human intermediaries play at least two important functions first an intermediary s knowledge of the market and its participants may uncover hidden liquidity that facilitates quicker and more efficient matching of customer orders grossman 1992 the value of this matching function is greater when trading volume is low and matches are difficult to find second when information asymmetry is high the repeated interaction between an intermediary and its customers allows the intermediary to protect itself against informed trades and offer better prices to its customers seppi 1990 these two factors explain for example why electronic communications networks ecns have a greater market share for the largest and most actively traded nasdaq stocks while nasdaq market makers have a larger share in smaller less liquid stocks characterized by greater information asymmetry barclay hendershott and mccormick 2003 and why nyse specialists have higher participation rates in smaller less liquid stocks madhavan and sofianos 1998

competition among trading venues information and trading on electronic communications networks this paper explores the competition between two trading venues electronic communication networks ecns and nasdaq market makers ecns oier the advantages of anonymity and speed of execution which attract informed traders thus trades are more likely to occur on ecns when information asymmetry is greater and when trading volume and stock return volatility are high ecn trades have greater permanent price impacts and more private information is revealed through ecn trades than though market maker trades however ecn trades have higher ex ante trading costs because market makers can preference or internalize the less informed trades and oier them better executions technological innovations that enable high speed low cost electronic trading systems are dramatically changing the structure of nancial markets exchanges and markets around the world are merging or forming alliances to improve liquidity and reduce costs in the face of increased competition from each other and from these computerized trading systems trading volume on electronic communications networks ecns has grown rapidly over the past several years ecns are now involved in more than a third of nasdaq trading volume and are attempting to increase their market share in nyse listed

price discovery in auction markets a look inside the black box opening mechanisms play a crucial role in information aggregation following the overnight nontrading period this article examines the process of price discovery at the new yorkstockexchange single price opening auction we develop a theoretical model to explain the determinants of the opening price and test the model using order level data we show that the presence of designated dealers facilitates price discovery relative to a fully automated call auction market this is consistent with specialists extracting information from observing the evolution of the limit order book in addition the specialist s opening trade reflects noninformational factors such as price stabilization requirements

walk the talk private sustainability standards in the ugandan coffee sector abstractwe investigate the welfare and productivity implications of private sustainability standards in the coffee sector in uganda we use cross sectional household survey data and an instrumental variable method with instruments that pass weak identification and over identification restrictions we find that triple utz rainforest alliance 4c certification increases income and land and labour productivity and reduces poverty double fairtrade organic certification is found to be associated with higher producer prices but results in lower land and labour productivity and thereby fails to increase producer income and contribute to poverty reduction we conclude that private sustainability standards do not always live up the expectations they create towards consumers

program trading and individual stock returns ingredients of the triple witching brew the price and trading volume behaviors of individual stocks in the standard and poor s 500 stock index s p 500 are analyzed on stock index futures expiration days a time when the market is known to be subject to heavy program trading the price behavior of stocks that are subject to program trading is shown to be very similar to stocks that are not stocks that decline in price in the last half hour friday tend to increase in price at the opening on monday and vice versa the monday reversal as a fraction of the friday price change is only slightly higher for the s p 500 stocks than for non s p 500 stocks indicating that the price reversals reflect for the most part the bid ask spreads of the individual stocks trading volume in the last half hour of expiration days is shown to be substantially higher than normal copyright 1990 by the university of chicago

horticultural exports female wage employment and primary school enrolment theory and evidence from senegal abstract in this paper we analyse the indirect effects of the boom in horticultural exports in senegal on child schooling the export boom has caused a dramatic increase in female off farm wage employment which led to increased female bargaining power in the household we investigate the causal effect of female wage income on primary school enrolment we develop a collective household model with endogenous bargaining power to show that if women have higher preferences for schooling than men the impact of female wage income on school enrolment will be the result of a positive income effect a negative labour substitution effect and a positive empowerment effect we address the question empirically using original household survey data from senegal we use different econometric techniques and show that female off farm wage income has a positive effect on primary school enrolment for both boys and girls and that female empowerment is specifically important for the schooling of girls our results imply that the horticultural export boom in senegal has indirectly contributed to the second and third millennium development goals of universal primary education and elimination of gender disparities in primary education

island goes dark transparency fragmentation and regulation responding to a september 2002 regulatory enforcement the island electronic communications network stopped displaying its limit order book in the three most active exchange traded funds etfs where it was the dominant venue island s share of trading activity and price discovery fell fragmenting the market etf prices adjust more slowly when island goes dark and there is substantial price discovery movement from etfs to the futures market trading costs increase on island and decrease off island with higher trading costs overall when island later redisplays its orders market quality improves with transparency and the reduction in fragmentation both playing important roles copyright 2005 oxford university press

economic growth and the rise of forests although forests have diminished globally over the past 400 years forest cover has increased in some areas including india in the last two decades aggregate time series evidence on forest growth rates and income growth across countries and within india and a newly assembled data set that combines national household survey data census data and satellite images of land use in rural india at the village level over a 29 year period are used to explore the hypothesis that increases in the demand for forest products associated with income and population growth lead to forest growth the evidence is consistent with this hypothesis which also shows that neither the expansion of agricultural productivity nor rising wages in india increased local forest cover

the impact of interfirm relationships on investment evidence from the polish dairy sector abstract financial constraints and credit market imperfections are a major constraint on investment growth and poverty reduction in transition and developing countries this paper analyses the impact on investments of financial assistance programs as part of interfirm relationships our empirical evidence is based on a two stage survey methodology qualitative evidence on dairy companies assistance programs was gathered in the first stage through in depth interviews at the level of the dairy companies quantitative data on 290 milk producing rural households in poland was collected through a random survey in the second stage the empirical analysis shows that dairy companies have played an important role in financial assistance in particular for dairy specific investments in addition they had an important indirect impact on farm activities and investments through feed supply and loan guarantee programs

liquidity externalities and adverse selection evidence from trading after hours this paper examines liquidity externalities by analyzing trading costs after hours there is less than 1 20 as many trades per unit time after hours as during the trading day the reduced trading activity results in substantially higher trading costs quoted and effective spreads are three to four times larger than during the trading day the higher spreads reflect greater adverse selection and order persistence but not higher dealer profits because liquidity provision remains competitive after hours the greater adverse selection and higher trading costs provide a direct measure of the magnitude of the liquidity externalities generated during the trading day understanding network effects and liquidity externalities is one of the most important outstanding issues in market design madhavan 2000 and market regulation macey and o hara 1999 liquidity externalities arise from bringing traders together in space and time to reduce search and trading costs bringing traders together creates liquidity externalities because the additional traders arriving in the marketplace reduce trading costs for all investors to date attention has focused almost exclusively on spatial network effects by examining the trading of securities in different markets at the same time lee 1993 hasbrouck 1995 and others in contrast this paper studies the effects of temporal consolidation of trades by analyzing trading during and outside of exchange trading hours a well known liquidity externality arises from asymmetric information rational informed traders break up their orders across markets and over time this provides incentives for liquidity traders to consolidate their trades geographically garbade and silber 1979 mendelson 1982 1987 pagano 1989a 1989b and intertemporally admati and pfleiderer 1988 and foster and viswanathan 1990 it has been difficult to document the importance of these liquidity externalities however unless there are barriers that restrict the flow of orders from one trading venue to another in equilibrium contemporaneous

a closing call s impact on market quality at euronext paris abstract the paris bourse currently euronext paris refined its trading system to include electronic call auctions at market closings in 1996 for its less liquid continuous b stocks and in 1998 for its more actively traded continuous a stocks this paper analyzes the effects of the innovation on market quality our empirical analysis of price behavior for two samples of firms 50 b stocks and 50 a stocks for two different calendar dates 1996 and 1998 indicates that introduction of the closing calls has lowered execution costs for individual participants and sharpened price discovery for the broad market we further observe that market quality is improved at market openings albeit to a lesser extent we suggest that a positive spillover effect explains the closing call s more pervasive impact

liquidity and the law of one price the case of the futures cash basis deviations from no arbitrage relations should be related to market liquidity because liquidity facilitates arbitrage at the same time a wide futures cash basis may trigger arbitrage trades and in turn affect liquidity we test these ideas by studying the dynamic relation between stock market liquidity and the index futures basis there is evidence of two way granger causality between the short term absolute basis and liquidity and liquidity granger causes longer term absolute bases shocks to the absolute basis predict future stock market liquidity the evidence suggests that liquidity enhances the efficiency of the futures cash pricing system copyright 2007 by the american finance association

non traditional crops traditional constraints long term welfare impacts of export crop adoption among guatemalan smallholders this study documents the long term welfare effects of household non traditional agricultural export ntx adoption the analysis uses a unique panel dataset which spans the period 1985 2005 and employs difference in differences estimation to investigate the long term impact of non traditional agricultural export adoption on changes in household consumption status and asset position in the central highlands of guatemala given the heterogeneity in adoption patterns the analysis differentiates the impact estimates based on a classification of households that takes into account the timing and duration of non traditional agricultural export adoption the results show that while on average welfare levels have improved for all households irrespective of adoption status and duration the extent of improvement has varied across groups long term adopters exhibit the smallest increase in the lapse of two decades in spite of some early gains conversely early adopters who withdrew from non traditional agricultural export production after reaping the benefits of the boom period of the 1980s are found to have fared better and shown greater improvements in durable asset position and housing conditions than any other category

spillovers from high value agriculture for exports on land use in developing countries evidence from madagascar high value agriculture for exports is increasingly important in developing countries in a case study of contract farming for exports of vegetables from madagascar strong spillover effects of these trade opportunities on land use are found to exist using a matched plot sampling design the productivity of rice the main domestically consumed staple is shown to be two thirds higher on fields that were contracted during the off season for the production of vegetables this increase in yields is linked to an increase of soil fertility due to the application of fertilizer and compost which farmers did not use prior to the contracts although agricultural output goes up significantly labor productivity stays the same suggesting that there is greater labor absorption on existing land and the diffusion of this type of technology at a larger scale throughout madagascar would be expected to substantially decrease incentives to deforest by increasing wages and to boost productivity of existing lands relative to newly deforested ones

empirical regularities in the poverty environment relationship of rural households evidence from zimbabwe abstract analysis of rural households and environmental resources is beset by inadequate data especially in africa using purpose collected panel data from zimbabwe we demonstrate seven empirical regularities in the rural poverty environment relationship most important environmental resources make a significant contribution to average rural incomes poorer households also depend heavily on these resources which contribute c 40 to their incomes richer households however use greater quantities of environmental resources in total finally considerable differentiation exists in the economic characteristics of environmental goods these results demonstrate the considerable economic significance of environmental resources to rural households surveys which ignore them miscalculate rural incomes and welfare

better technology better plots or better farmers identifying changes in productivity and risk among malagasy rice farmers we introduce a method for properly attributing observed productivity and risk changes among new production methods farmers and plots by controlling for farmer and plot heterogeneity results from madagascar show that the new system of rice intensification sri is indeed a superior technology although about half of the observed productivity gains appear due to farmer characteristics rather than sri itself the technology generates the estimated average output gains of more than 84 the increased estimated yield risk associated with sri would nonetheless make it unattractive to many farmers within the standard range of relative risk aversion