from shadow to green linking environmental fiscal reforms and the informal economy in the past few decades many papers have analysed in some depth different environmental tax reforms and the double dividend hypothesis i e the possibility of improving not only the environment but also the economy through the reduction of distortions in the tax system recently more stress has been placed on testing empirically what effects a reduction in labour taxes may have on unemployment when accompanied by a carbon or other environmental tax however such studies have not modelled the effects of the presence of a shadow economy even though informal markets account for a significant and growing part of gdp in many developed economies this paper analyses this link using an applied general equilibrium model for the case of spain which has one of the highest unemployment rates in the world and one of the biggest informal economies of any wealthy country we conclude that our analysis strengthens the case for an environmental tax reform in spain if revenues from a co2 tax are recycled via a labour tax reduction

equilibrium incentive contracts and efficiency wages we analyze the optimal efficiency wage contract when output is contractible but firms neither observe the workers effort nor their match specific productivity firms offer wage contracts that optimally trade off effort and wage costs as a result employed workers enjoy rents which in turn creates unemployment nonetheless the incentive power of the equilibrium wage contract is constrained efficient in the absence of taxes and unemployment benefits we also show that more high powered incentive contracts tend to be associated with higher equilibrium unemployment rates jel e24 j30 j41

defending against speculative attacks the policy maker s reputation abstract this paper studies how speculative attacks and regime change arise from the interaction between a policy maker s reputation for defending against speculative attacks and speculators learning of the policy maker s type if speculators receive conditionally independent and identically distributed private signals about the policy maker s type in every period then no matter how precise their per period private signals are there can be no equilibrium with attacks if the speculators receive private signals whose precision increases as a power function of the time with the power strictly greater than two there exist infinitely many equilibria with attacks but this equilibrium multiplicity arises from the timing of the attacks only in such a case the set of status quos surviving in any equilibrium is strictly larger than in the case of a short lived policy maker

two sector perspectives on the effects of payroll tax cuts and their financing abstract this paper analyzes the consequences of lifting from labor some of the burden of taxation in a life cycle two sector setup where a consumption good is produced alongside a capital good the analysis focuses on the implications of alternative ways of financing payroll tax cuts in closed and small open neoclassical economies in our models payroll tax cuts do not necessarily stimulate hours worked in the stationary state we show for example that in the closed economy paradoxically long run aggregate labor hours and the capital stock will be reduced if labor tax proceeds are replaced by capital taxation if instead government purchases of the capital good or government labor services are decreased manhours are left unchanged in the long run while capital formation is spurred in the small open economy it is only if the offsets are a fall in entitlement spending or a rise in the wealth tax that aggregate manhours are increased otherwise steady state hours worked are invariant

are contributions to public pension programmes a tax on employment many studies describe the potentially adverse impact on employment of the payroll costs of financing public pension programmes conventionally empirical studies treat contributions to public pension programmes as a pure tax in for example calculations of the tax wedge by oecd but this approach ignores any future rights to benefits that are perceived by contributors in fact public pension programmes contain both an actuarial and a redistributive component the former closer to saving the latter a tax the paper constructs indicators of the tax component of pension programmes both between and within generations across a range of oecd countries and time periods it uses these measures in a cross country panel analysis of the determinants of age and gender specific economic activity rates the results reveal robust evidence that when public pension programme contributions are broken down into a tax component and a savings component the tax component of the payroll contribution reduces economic activity rates among women while a higher retirement saving component has the opposite effect there is little evidence that average tax rates however constructed have any adverse impact on the economic activity rates of men richard disney

degradation of environmental capital and national accounting procedures abstract the capital theoretic approach to the environment as a wastable stock a stock with a flow of abatement services is explored in a simple ricardo like model involving wheat production and pollution production as an essential by product we then turn to how the national accounts are implicit in growth or capital theory models and how formulae emerge for accounting for the wasting of environmental capital airsheds and watersheds from excessive use

female labor supply following displacement a split population model of labor force participation and job search following permanent layoffs most women search for new jobs but some withdraw from the labor force we develop a joint model of the choice to undertake postdisplacement job search and unemployment durations for searchers and estimate it using data from the 1988 displaced worker survey maximum likelihood estimates of this split population model show that labor force withdrawal is an important factor explaining the distribution of postdisplacement jobless spells the model also allows us to distinguish the effect of any covariate on the decision to engage in postdisplacement search from its effect on search duration single population models obscure this distinction

budgetary policy and unemployment dynamics in an olg model with collective bargaining we consider a dynamic general equilibrium model with capital accumulation and collective wage bargaining and investigate how unemployment responds to structural shocks under two stylised budgetary policies under balanced budgets tax adjustments lead to higher unemployment on impact but enable a quick recovery of employment by contrast unbalanced budgets mitigate unemployment effects on impact but dynamics are more persistent due to weaker capital accumulation and future fiscal consolidations these results are consistent with empirical evidence on a positive cross country relationship between government borrowing and unemployment persistence this paper starts out from the well known fact that many european countries have suffered from persistently high unemployment over the past two decades there is a large literature which attempts to explain this development as resulting from a combination of structural shocks and mechanisms which make the effects of any such shifts more persistent one prominent branch of this literature stresses that adverse structural shocks tend to induce a slowdown in capital accumulation which reinforces the employment losses and adds to unemployment persistence bean 1989 benassy 1997 blanchard 1997 burda 1988 caballero and hammour 1998 daveri and tabellini 2000 similarly these studies point out that when the shock is over the recovery of employment depends critically on the speed with which investments in capital respond to the new situation the purpose of this paper is to reconsider this capital shortage hypothesis by linking it explicitly to the stance of fiscal policy to see the importance of fiscal policy in this context consider a government which faces an adverse structural shock such as a drop in employment due to a wage setting shock and decides whether it should keep its budget balanced or not this decision will affect the overall structure of assets in the economy i e the mix between capital and government bonds and this mix will in turn be an important determinant of the speed with which the economy can create employment once the shock is over in particular according to the capital shortage hypothesis the recovery in terms of employment is likely to take longer under a policy which temporarily accepts structural budget deficits particularly when crowding out effects have been substantial

are unemployment and out of the labor force behaviorally distinct labor force states this paper tests the hypothesis that the classifications unemployed and out of the labor force are behaviorally meaningless distinctions this hypothesis is rejected distinct behavioral equations govern transitions from out of the labor force to employment and from unemployment to employment the evidence reported in this paper is broadly consistent with versions of search theory in which unemployment is a state that facilitates the job search process in an appendix we demonstrate that log concavity of the wage offer distribution implies that the exit rate from unemployment is an increasing function of the rate of arrival of job offers

can a carbon permit system reduce spanish unemployment this paper analyses the impact of carbon policy on unemployment in spain and whether recycling the public revenues earned from permit auctions can alleviate this problem while spain s deviation from the european union s intermediate emission goals is more serious than most other member countries unemployment in spain is also well above average for the european union we use a computable general equilibrium model that includes unemployment in the markets for unskilled and skilled labour we find that introducing carbon permits does not aggravate spanish unemployment in fact if supplied with revenue recycling schemes unemployment rates may actually fall contrary to other european studies we find that the best option is to reduce payroll taxes on relatively skilled types of labour this reform is successful in both increasing labour demand and dampening the supply response to rising wages however while all of the recycling schemes generate dividends in terms of aggregate welfare none entirely offsets the abatement costs

a rothschild stiglitz approach to bayesian persuasion abstract rothschild and stiglitz 1970 represent random variables as convex functions integrals of the cumulative distribution function combining this representation with blackwell s theorem 1953 we characterize distributions of posterior means that can be induced by a signal this characterization provides a novel way to analyze a class of bayesian persuasion problems

is incomes policy the answer to unemployment in western europe unemployment has remained obstinately high ever since 1975 what has prevented governments from reducing it the answer is simple if unemployment were reduced by normal methods inflation would rise it follows that the only way to cut the long run level of unemployment is to find some other way of controlling inflation no such device will be costless but if we could find any method that was less costly than unemployment we ought to adopt it maurice chevalier was asked in later life what he thought of old age it s not so bad he replied when you consider the alternative that was a true economist talking and it is also the spirit in which i shall approach the unhappy choices open to us my argument will proceed roughly as follows first imagine that a costless incomes policy is available then most people would probably agree that if inflation was too high a temporary incomes policy would be a good idea in order to get inflation down but what then when it was down we would still be left with far too high an unemployment rate only a permanent incomes policy can substantially reduce the non inflationary level of unemployment however against these benefits have to be set the costs of an incomes policy a conventional incomes policy which permanently suspended collective bargaining would be out of the question in a free society so we have to have an incomes policy that works by incentive rather than by regulation the best thing would be a tax on wage increases levied on employers and proportional to wage increases above a prescribed norm i shall spend some time discussing this tax using various different models of wage setting to explain how it would have its effect and finally i shall try producing a first draft of the operator s manual

labour taxes and unemployment evidence from a panel unobserved component model abstract this paper estimates the impact of labour taxes on unemployment using a panel of yearly observations 1970 2005 for 16 oecd countries possible heterogeneity of the unemployment incidence of taxes is taken into account by grouping countries according to their wage setting institutions panel data unit root and cointegration tests show that unemployment and labour tax rates are non stationary but not cointegrated as this finding may be induced by missing non stationary variables we set up a panel unobserved component model labour taxes are found to have a positive impact on unemployment only in countries characterised by strong but decentralised unions

bayesian persuasion in coordination games regime change games have been studied widely in the economic literature in the contexts of bank runs currency attacks political revolutions and others usually agents need to coordinate an attack against the status quo once sufficiently many agents attack the regime changes and agents who were attacking benefit from their attack otherwise the regime stays and agents who were attacking it have to bear a cost an important angle of coordination games is the transmission of information from the policymaker or the defender of the status quo to the agents who have to make a decision whether to attack the regime the policymaker can attempt to change the information available to agents to increase the likelihood of the survival of the regime in this paper we present a model where the policymaker attempts to transmit information in this spirit specifically we study a model where the policymaker can commit to abandon the regime automatically before agents choose whether to attack or not if the fundamentals determining the strength of the regime are below a certain threshold the benefit of committing to abandon the regime more often is that conditional on the regime not being automatically abandoned agents update their information to account for the fact that the fundamentals are above the threshold and so their inclination to attack decreases the disadvantage is that it directly increases the likelihood that the regime will not survive since it is automatically abandoned analyzing this problem we show that the policymaker finds it optimal to commit to abandon the regime often enough such that when agents see that the policymaker did not abandon it they choose not to attack hence the policymaker chooses to maximize the benefit out of the infor mational transmission channel from the committed policy at the same time the policymaker has no additional benefit in committing to abandon the regime beyond that point as it will cause too frequent abandonment without additional information benefits the commitment ability of the policymaker is key here we show that without commitment ability the policymaker ends up abandoning automatically less often

labor market policy evaluation with ace abstract i develop an agent based computational economics ace model with which i evaluate the aggregate impact of labor market policies the findings are that government financed training measures increase the outflow rate from unemployment to employment although the overall effect is positive this effect is achieved by reducing the outflow rate for those who do not receive subsidies furthermore the outflow rate would have been downward biased had one supposed a matching function that is exogenous to policies

dynamic global games of regime change learning multiplicity and the timing of attacks global games of regime change coordination games of incomplete information in which a status quo is abandoned once a sufficiently large fraction of agents attack it have been used to study crises phenomena such as currency attacks bank runs debt crises and political change we extend the static benchmark examined in the literature by allowing agents to take actions in many periods and to learn about the underlying fundamentals over time we first provide a simple recursive algorithm for the characterization of monotone equilibria we then show how the interaction of the knowledge that the regime survived past attacks with the arrival of information over time or with changes in fundamentals leads to interesting equilibrium properties first multiplicity may obtain under the same conditions on exogenous information that guarantee uniqueness in the static benchmark second fundamentals may predict the eventual fate of the regime but not the timing or the number of attacks finally equilibrium dynamics can alternate between phases of tranquility where no attack is possible and phases of distress where a large attack can occur even without changes in fundamentals

cross sectional efficiency and labour hoarding in a matching model of unemployment we study positive and normative aspects of steady state equilibrium in a market where firms of endogenous size experience idiosyncratic shocks and undergo a costly search process to hire their workers the stylized model we propose highlights interactions between job security provisions and sectoral shocks in determining the natural rate of unemployment the allocation of labour and the extent of labour hoarding and rationalizes cross sectional asymmetries of gross employment flows at the firm level in our model where productivity and search costs are dynamically heterogeneous across firms decentralized wage bargains imply important cross sectional inefficiencies which overshadow the static search inefficiencies on which simpler models focus

unique equilibrium in a model of self fulfilling currency attacks even though self fulfilling currency attacks lead to multiple equilibria when fundamentals are common knowledge we demonstrate the uniqueness of equilibrium when speculators face a small amount of noise in their signals about the fundamentals this unique equilibrium depends not only on the fundamentals but also on financial variables such as the quantity of hot money in circulation and the costs of speculative trading in contrast to multiple equilibrium models our model allows analysis of policy proposals directed at curtailing currency attacks

carbon taxation when climate affects productivity optimal carbon taxation is evaluated in a model where climate change affects productivity with a numerical us economy model with preexisting taxes the optimal carbon tax is found to exceed marginal social damage by 53 percent and marginal private damage the sum of households marginal willingness to pay by 73 percent the welfare gain from optimal carbon taxation is estimated at 3 58 billion per year when marginal damages are 40 ton employment also increases setting the carbon tax at the pigouvian rate raises welfare by only 3 17 billion the contrasting results in the tax interaction literature are due to the use of marginal private damage when applied to amenity externalities

the role of household production in models of involuntary unemployment and underemployment a classic result in the theory of labor contracts with asymmetric information is that underemployment results if and only if leisure is an inferior good a classic result in models where unemployment occurs because of indivisibilities including implicit contract models and some equilibrium macroeconomic models is that unemployment is involuntary if and only if leisure is an inferior good the authors introduce household production into otherwise standard versions of these models and show that this implies they can have underemployment in asymmetric information models or involuntary unemployment in indivisible labor models without assuming that leisure is inferior

labour tax reform the good jobs and the bad jobs we analyse recent proposals to shift the tax burden away from low paid labour assuming a dual labour market where the good high paying jobs are rationed a shift in the tax burden from low paid to high paid workers has an ambiguous effect on the level of aggregate employment while the allocation of aggregate employment is further distorted even if the tax reform raises total employment economic efficiency may be reduced because labour is reallocated from high productive to low productive jobs we also find that opportunities for on the job search have important implications for the policy effects

the consequences of rigid wages in search models the standard theory of equilibrium unemployment the mortensen pissarides search and matching model cannot explain the magnitude of the business cycle fluctuations in two of its central elements unemployment and vacancies modifying the model to make the present value of wages unresponsive to current labor market conditions amplifies fluctuations in unemployment and vacancies by an order of magnitude significantly improving the performance of the model despite this the welfare consequences of such rigid wages is negligible jel e24 e32 j30 j41 j63 j64

credit rating inflation and firms investments we analyze credit rating effects on firm investments in a rational bond financing game that features a feedback loop the credit rating agency cra inflates the rating providing a biased but informative signal to creditors creditors response to the rating affects the firm s investment decision and thus its credit quality which is reflected in the rating the cra might reduce ex ante economic efficiency which results solely from its strategic effect the cra assigns more firms high ratings and allows them to gamble for resurrection we derive empirical predictions on the determinants of rating standards and inflation and discuss policy implications

environmental taxation employment and public spending in developing countries this paper investigates the consequences of environmental tax reforms for unemployment and welfare in the case of developing countries with a large informal sector rural urban migration and three different assumptions about public spending 1 as part of a revenue neutral policy 2 fixed and 3 varying endogenously under the indexation of unemployment benefits and informal sector income that give rise to a double dividend a lower level of public spending is associated with a smaller negative impact on the after tax income of households and a higher increase in employment these policies however still lead to a reduction in social welfare even more so in the case of endogenous public spending although it is associated with a higher increase in employment and a smaller reduction in private sector incomes the model implies that complementary policy in terms of lower public spending is unlikely to be socially acceptable and does not support the case for a green tax reforms in developing countries

information manipulation coordination and regime change this article presents a model of information manipulation and political regime change there is a regime that can be overthrown but only if enough citizens participate in an uprising citizens are imperfectly informed about the regime s ability to resist an uprising and the regime can engage in propaganda that taken at face value makes the regime seem stronger than it truly is this coordination game with endogenous information manipulation has a unique equilibrium and the article gives a complete analytic characterization of the equilibrium s comparative statics holding fixed the number of signals available to citizens if the per unit signal precision is sufficiently high then the regime is harder to overthrow in contrast if the number of signals increases so that both total signal precision and the regime s costs of manipulation rise together then the regime is easier to overthrow unless there are strong economies of scale in information control

the incidence of income tax on wages and labour supply in the simple framework of a static model for equilibrium wages and labour supplies we show that the incidence of income tax on equilibrium wages can be measured independently from the individual

unemployment benefits contract length and nominal wage flexibility we show in a union bargaining model that a decrease in the unemployment benefit level increases not only equilibrium employment but also nominal wage flexibility and thus reduces employment varia

equilibrium search unemployment endogenous participation and labor market flows the sustainability of welfare states requires high employment and high participation to raise the tax base to analyze labor supply in a world with market frictions we propose and solve a macro model of the labor market with unemployment and labor force participation as endogenous and distinct states in our world workers decisions of participating are determined by an entry decision and an exit decision a calibration of the model improves the usual representations of labor markets since it quantitatively accounts for the observed flows between employment and nonparticipation the paper investigates also the effect of payroll taxes and unemployment benefits on participation decisions taxes reduce entries and increase exits whereas unemployment benefits at a given job finding rate raise entries and have ambiguous effects on exits jel j2 j6

optimal monetary policy in economies with dual labor markets abstract we present a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge new keynesian model with indivisible labor and a dual labor market a walrasian one where wages are fully flexible and a unionized one characterized by real wage rigidity we show that the negative effect of a productivity shock on inflation and the positive effect of a cost push shock are crucially determined by the proportion of firms that belong to the unionized sector the larger this number the larger are these effects consequently the larger the union coverage the larger should be the optimal response of the nominal interest rate to exogenous productivity and cost push shocks the optimal inflation and output gap volatility increases as the number of the unionized firms in the economy increases

labour supply search and taxes abstract classical labour supply theory is one of the most sophisticated parts of labour economics yet there is no compelling theoretical reason to believe in an outcome on a classical labour supply curve and it is unclear whether it is a good empirical description of the way in which labour markets actually work this paper uses the techniques of search theory to analyse the impact of changes in the tax system on incentives to work when individuals do not have flexibility of hours within jobs it is shown how the traditional comparative statics are of some use but are rarely the whole story and some comparative statics results are surprising

the impact of employment tax cuts on unemployment and wages the role of unemployment benefits and tax structure abstract i model and simulate the effects of employment tax cuts on unemployment and wages in four equilibrium models competitive union bargaining search and efficiency wages i find that if the ratio of unemployment compensation to wages is fixed the effect of the tax cut is mainly on wages but if income out of work is fixed in real terms there are substantial employment effects when wages are determined by bargaining revenueneutral reforms that make the tax more progressive also reduce unemployment thus policy towards unemployment compensation and tax structure are key influences on the effect of taxes on unemployment

understanding the persistence properties of international macroeconomic aggregates in this paper the ability of a two country model of growth and cycles is evaluated to explain the persistence properties of output and consumption across countries simulated output and consumption levels replicate the observed appearance of noncointegration across countries simulated output growth rates however do not explain the observed positive serial correlation of output growth rates the reallocation of resources in response to technology shocks generates a negative serial correlation for output growth rates

search frictions and labor market participation abstract cross country differences in labor market participation are often larger than differences in unemployment rates the same holds true across demographic groups within a given economy we argue that the interaction between labor force participation decisions and labor market frictions can help us understand these patterns this interaction highlights dynamic aspects of the participation decision in contrast to standard textbook treatments that emphasize static costs and benefits of participation we extend the standard labor market search problem to allow for a third state non participation and assumes that stochastic participation costs precipitate flows into and out of non participation we fully characterize the worker s decision problem and use numerical simulations to demonstrate how participation patterns vary with individual characteristics and with labor market conditions

female labour supply and household employment shocks maternity leave as an insurance mechanism this paper investigates the role of unpaid maternity leave in providing household insurance against paternal employment shocks the main outcome is the timing of a mothers return to work after having a child exploiting the us family and medical leave act we find that mothers eligible for maternity leave speed up their return to work in response to a paternal shock with the conditional probability of being in work 49 higher than in households with no unpaid maternity leave further evidence is provided on the insurance role of unpaid maternity leave through i no significant interaction between paid maternity leave and the paternal shock and ii smoothing of consumption effects of the shock for households covered by unpaid leave

unemployment responses to skill biased technology shocks the role of labour market policy do skill biased shocks that increase the spread of labour productivities interacting with different policy regimes explain the rise in unemployment in europe relative to the united states in the 1980s and 1990s the hypothesis is an implication of a version of the mortensen and pissarides 1994 model of equilibrium unemployment which allows for worker heterogeneity a calibrated version of the model implies that a similar unemployment increase would have occurred in the united states over this period given changes in relative productivity by education implied by observed wage changes had unemployment compensation and employment protection policies been at european levels

earnings unemployment and the allocation of time over time since an individual s labour market history can be described by a markov chain in state space it is possible to calculate the steady states it is natural to interpret the steady state proportion in unemployment for a group of identical workers as the natural rate of unemployment for this group i e it is the expected proportion that would be employed if the environment were to remain constant it is shown how the natural rate of unemployment is different for different groups the model is estimated using data from a large u s income maintenance experiment the predictions of the model with some exceptions bear up well to confrontation by data the empirical findings also accord well with existing evidence on cross section studies of labour supply we find that labour force participation rates implied by the estimated models are positively related to earnings for all age sex and race groups as expected we demonstrate that the elasticities of the unemployment rates for all groups with respect to expected wage rates are negative and large in absolute value in the case of adults while the role of the wage in allocation of time is not novel the existing neoclassical labour literature uses static labour supply models to interpret participation rate studies

optimal unemployment insurance in search equilibrium should unemployment benefits be paid indefinitely at a fixed rate or should the rate decline or increase over a worker s unemployment spell we examine these issues using an equilibrium model of search unemployment the model features worker firm bargaining over wages free entry of new jobs and endogenous search effort among the unemployed the main result is that an optimal insurance program implies a declining benefit sequence over the spell of unemployment numerical calibrations of the model suggest that there may be nontrivial welfare gains associated with switching from an optimal uniform benefit structure to an optimally differentiated system

should unemployment benefits decrease with the unemployment spell abstract in this paper we investigate whether unemployment benefits should decrease with the unemployment spell in a model where both job search intensity and wages are endogenous wages are set by collective agreements bargained by insiders it is shown that a more declining time sequence of unemployment benefits leads to wage increases when the tax rate is given such an effect may imply an increase in unemployment and counteracts the response of job search intensity that can be found in standard job search models with a given wage distribution calibration exercises suggest that it costs twice as much in terms of welfare loss for the long term unemployed workers to reduce the unemployment rate by 1 when wages are endogenous than in the standard job search model

labour taxation in a unionised economy with home production this paper investigates the impact of payroll taxes on unemployment and welfare in a model with household production and union firm wage bargaining it turns out that unemployment most likely fal

the impact of trade openness on labour force participation rate in this article we investigate the impact of trade openness on labour force participation rate we use tariff rate as the main indicator of trade openness and we employ the number of regional trad

employment effects of payroll taxes an empirical test for germany this study tests to what degree the incidence of payroll taxes in germany is on employment and whether in consequence payroll taxes in particular social insurance contributions are the culprit behind the growing unemployment problem using industry level data for 18 years 1977 1994 a system of five dynamic factor demand equations is estimated various simulations indicate that the employment effects of payroll taxes are minimal

optimal income taxation with endogenous participation and search unemployment we characterize optimal redistributive taxation when individuals are heterogeneous in their skills and their values of non market activities search matching frictions on the labor markets create unemployment wages labor demand and participation are endogenous average tax rates are increasing at the optimum this shifts wages below their laissez faire value and distorts labor demand upwards the marginal tax rate is positive at the top of the skill distribution even when the latter is bounded these results are analytically shown under a maximin objective when the elasticity of participation is decreasing in the skill level and are numerically confirmed under a more general objective under the maximin above approximately 20 000 per year our model recommends higher marginal tax rates than a comparable competitive setting

optimal labour taxation and search abstract this paper explores the optimal role of the tax system in alleviating labour market imperfections and raising revenue for this purpose the standard search model of the labour market is extended by introducing scarce entrepreneurial talent and arbitrage between the supply and demand sides of the labour market we study how these extensions affect the following two major implications of the standard model 1 only the ad valorem component of the wage tax should be employed to raise revenue 2 the optimal tax system should not distort labour market tightness

equilibrium unemployment and retirement we first propose some new empirical evidence on the fact that the labor market conditions matter for the retirement decision at the individual level we investigate whether unemployed workers retire before employed workers other things being equal our main objective in this paper is then to propose an equilibrium unemployment approach to retirement decisions that allows us to derive the positive and normative features of retirement decisions when search and matching frictions are considered two main conclusions emerge the retirement decision of unemployed workers depends on the labor market frictions whereas that of employed workers does not the existence of search externalities makes the retirement age of unemployed workers intrinsically suboptimal considering social security policy issues we show that the complete elimination of the implicit tax on continued activity is not necessarily welfare optimizing in a second best world where the labor market equilibrium suffers from distortions

the incidence of payroll taxation evidence from chile i provide new evidence on the incidence of payroll taxation by examining the experience of chile before and after the privatization of its social security system this policy change led to a sharp exogenous reduction in the payroll tax burden on chilean firms on average payroll tax rates fell by 25 over 6 years using data from a census of manufacturing firms i estimate that the incidence of payroll taxation is fully on wages with no effect on employment this finding is robust to a variety of empirical approaches to the problem of measurement error in firm level measures of taxes worker

optimal redistributive taxation in a search equilibrium model this paper characterizes optimal non linear income taxation in an economy with a continuum of unobservable productivity levels and endogenous involuntary unemployment due to frictions in the labour markets redistributive taxation distorts labour demand and wages compared to their efficient values gross wages unemployment and participation are lower average tax rates are increasing marginal tax rates are positive even at the top finally numerical simulations suggest that redistribution is much more important in our setting than in a comparable mirrlees type setting

tax reforms under market distortions in product and labour markets using a two agent model comprised of capitalists and workers this paper examines the importance of imperfect competition in product and labour markets in determining the welfare effects of tax reform the reform considered consists of eliminating the capital tax alongside a concurrent rise in the labour tax in contrast to the perfectly competitive model models with product or labour market failures each result in welfare losses for the workers in the long run in a realistic calibration to the uk economy combining these imperfections implies that this tax reform will be pareto improving in the long run however these welfare gains over longer time horizons come at the cost of short run losses which consistent with previous research result in welfare losses for workers post reform

dynamic interventions and informational linkages abstract we model a dynamic economy with strategic complementarity among investors and study how endogenous government interventions mitigate coordination failures we establish equilibrium existence and uniqueness and we show that one intervention can affect another through altering the public information structure a stronger initial intervention helps subsequent interventions through increasing the likelihood of positive news but also leads to negative conditional updates our results suggest optimal policy should emphasize initial interventions when coordination outcomes tend to correlate neglecting informational externalities of initial interventions results in over or under interventions moreover saving smaller funds disproportionally more can generate greater informational benefits at smaller costs

when can carbon abatement policies increase welfare the fundamental role of distorted factor markets abstract this paper employs analytical and numerical models to assess the welfare effects of a revenue neutral carbon tax and nonauctioned carbon emissions permits taking into account preexisting tax distortions in factor markets the presence of preexisting taxes significantly raises the general equilibrium costs of both policies this cost increase is much greater under emissions permits since this policy does not generate revenues to reduce distortionary taxes under our central estimates emissions permits cannot increase welfare unless environmental damages exceed about 18 per ton of carbon in contrast an appropriately scaled carbon tax is welfare improving so long as environmental damages are positive

signaling in a global game coordination and policy traps this paper introduces signaling in a global game so as to examine the informational role of policy in coordination environments such as currency crises and bank runs while exogenous asymmetric information has been shown to select a unique equilibrium we show that the endogenous information generated by policy interventions leads to multiple equilibria the policy maker is thus trapped into a position in which self fulfilling expectations dictate not only the coordination outcome but also the optimal policy this result does not rely on the freedom to choose out of equilibrium beliefs nor on the policy being a public signal it may obtain even if the policy is observed with idiosyncratic noise

bubbles and persuasion with uncertainty over market sentiment abstract recent empirical studies suggest that during times of unexpected innovation agents heterogeneously update their beliefs about an asset fundamental value and are uncertain of other agents beliefs about it in this paper i show that when there is uncertainty over the market sentiment defined as other investors beliefs about an asset fundamental value market manipulation can act through a previously unconsidered channel by misleading agents learning on the market sentiment this novel type of market manipulation could strengthen existing financial bubbles or even give rise to new ones

a non walrasian labor market in a monetary model of the business cycle abstract this paper investigates to what extent a new keynesian monetary model with the addition of a microfounded non walrasian labor market solely based on union bargaining is able to replicate key aspects of the business cycle the presence of a representative union offers an explanation for two features of the cycle first it generates an endogenous mechanism which produces persistent responses to both supply and demand shocks second labor unionization reduces the elasticity of marginal costs to output this leads to lower inflation volatility model simulations show that the unionized framework can better reproduce european business cycle data than can a model with a competitive labor market

35 years of reforms a panel analysis of the incidence of and employee and employer responses to social security contributions in the uk we exploit variation in national insurance contributions nics the uk s system of social security contributions and a large panel dataset to examine the effects of 35 years of employee and employer nics reforms on labour cost gross earnings plus employer nics hours of work and labour cost per hour both immediately 0 6 months after reforms are implemented and in the slightly longer term 12 18 months we consider assumptions under which the estimated coefficients on net of marginal and net of average tax rates in a panel regression can be interpreted as behavioural elasticities or as reflecting incidence we find a compensated elasticity of taxable earnings with respect to the marginal rate of employee nics of about 0 2 0 3 operating largely through hours of work while that with respect to the marginal rate of employer nics is not statistically significantly different from zero we also find that labour cost falls by a much larger amount when the average rate of employer nics is reduced than when the average rate of employee nics is reduced which is consistent with the economic incidence of nics being strongly affected by its formal legal incidence estimates from the hours and hourly labour cost regressions provide further support to this interpretation of the findings and also suggest the presence of substantial income effects though also after 1999 a puzzling effect of average employer nics rates on hours of work each of these results remains true after 12 18 months if anything coefficients on lagged changes in nics rates strengthen these findings implying that any shifting of employer nics changes to the individual employees concerned and vice versa for employee nics does not begin over this time horizon these results are similar to those found by lehmann et al 2013 for france but represent an extension of that work by considering hours as well as labour cost responses and second year as well as immediate effects

the cyclical behavior of the beveridge curve in the housing market abstract this paper develops a business cycle model of the housing market with search frictions and entry of both buyers and sellers the housing market exhibits a well established cyclical component which features three stylized facts prices move in the same direction as sales and the number of houses for sale but opposite to the time it takes to sell a house these stylized facts imply that in the data housing vacancies and the number of buyers are positively correlated i e that the beveridge curve is upward sloping a baseline search and matching model of the housing market is unable to match these stylized facts because it inherently generates a downward sloping beveridge curve with free entry of both buyers and sellers our model reproduces the positive correlation between prices sales and vacancies and matches the stylized facts qualitatively and quantitatively

national account of timber and forest environmental resources in sweden this paper outlines an extension of the national account of income from forest resources in sweden 1987 incorporating changes in timber inventories production of nonmarketed timber and nontimber goods and depletion or improvement in vital environmental stocks such as soil nutrients biodiversity and carbon sinks the total net value added provided by forest resources and forestry labour 1987 is estimated to 22 billions sek this is one third more than the contribution of forestry to ordinary gnp

home production meets time to build an innovation in this paper is to introduce a time to build technology for the production of market capital into a model with home production our main finding is that the two anomalies that have plagued all household production models the positive correlation between business and household investment and household investment s leading business investment over the business cycle are resolved when time to build is added

environmental tax interactions when pollution affects health or productivity abstract recent studies indicate that interactions with the tax distorted labor market increase the cost of pollution regulation however these studies make restrictive assumptions regarding preferences and ignore key links between pollution human health and labor productivity together these assumptions imply that pollution does not affect labor supply this paper develops an analytical general equilibrium model that considers several potential benefits from reduced pollution including improved health or productivity it shows that these benefits affect labor supply and thus create a benefit side tax interaction effect that can be of the same magnitude as the familiar cost side interaction when reduced pollution boosts labor productivity the effect substantially magnifies such benefits in contrast when pollution affects consumer health the effect tends to diminish the benefits of reduced pollution the paper considers only environmental regulation but these concepts apply equally to other policies affecting productivity or health such as research subsidies or occupational safety regulations

how much has labour taxation contributed to european structural unemployment abstract we analyse the effect of labour taxes on euro area unemployment making use of the blanchard and katz 1999 wage dynamics reconciling theory and evidence american economic review 89 2 69 74 nairu model we represent structural unemployment as that made up of two elements an observed part related to labour taxes plus a non stationary unobservable component related to the reservation wage and to the wage mark up contrary to empirical estimates available so far this modelling explicitly acknowledges the existence of non measurable factors responsible for the unemployment non stationarity for the period 1970 2004 we obtain a tax effect that lies in the middle of the estimates that can be found in the literature this study gives support to the view that lowering labour taxes can help to reduce unemployment in continental europe

the measurement of unemployment an empirical approach although the unemployment rate is one of the most widely cited and closely monitored economic statistics the definition and measurement of unemployment remain controversial an important issue is whether non employed persons who display a marginal attachment to the labor force for example those who are available for and desire work but are not searching for work should be classified as unemployed or non participants although this issue has been extensively debated it has never been tested empirically this paper carries out empirical tests of this and related hypotheses using a unique longitudinal data set from canada we find within the marginally attached a waiting group whose behavior indicates that they would be more appropriately classified as unemployed rather than out of the labor force the remainder of the marginally attached exhibit behavior between that of the unemployed and the balance of non participants suggesting that the desire for work among non searchers conveys substantial information about labor force attachment and future employment status our methods also apply to heterogeneity within the unemployed and we investigate behavioral variation linked to differences in job search methods and reasons for entry into unemployment although those using passive job search do exhibit behavior somewhat distinct from active searchers our results reject the practice of classifying passive job searchers as out of the labor force overall our results indicate that the non employed are very heterogeneous so that any single division into unemployment and out of the labor force is unlikely to fully capture the variety of degrees of labor force attachment this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

public finance solutions to the european unemployment problem public finance solutions a tax shift away from low paid labour may fight unemployment unemployment in europe is heavily concentrated among low skilled workers it has therefore been suggested that structural unemployment could be reduced by shifting the tax burden away from low skilled labour and away from the production of consumer services which are intensive in the use of such labour this paper finds that a tax shift away from low paid labour may raise aggregate employment and welfare but only if wage formation is sufficiently responsive to changing tax incentives the analysis also suggests that non negligible employment and welfare gains could be reaped by offering tax concessions or subsidies to those parts of the consumer service sector which compete most directly with low productivity home production and with underground economic activity peter birch sorensen

search wage bargains and cycles in this paper i describe an equilibrium model of job matchings with perfect foresight that has the following property the number of people looking for work changes temporarily when there is a temporary shock to the value of labour s marginal product it does not change when the shock is permanent by contrast real wages change temporarily by a small amount when the shock is temporary but change permanently and by a bigger amount when the shock is permanent thus the model offers an explanation for the observation that over the cycle small wage changes are associated with changes in unemployment whereas secularly wage growth does not seem to affect the rate of unemployment the two most common explanations for this observation in the literature the phelps lucas misperceptions model and the lucas rapping intertemporal substitution model are well grounded in equilibrium theory but they have not stood up well to empirical testing the misperceptions model requires more ignorance of aggregate changes than can be reasonably assumed whereas the intertemporal substitution model requires bigger wage elasticities of labour supply than those estimated in the model of this paper neither misperceptions nor changes in the supply of labour play a role in generating the unemployment cycle all agents observe the shocks when they occur and they anticipate correctly the economy s adjustment path but like the new classical explanations of the cycle the model is an equilibrium one in the sense that all private gains from trade are fully exploited at all phases of the cycle although the social gains from trade may not be fully exploited because of search externalities the cycle i derive here is not due to externalities unlike other related perfect foresight models such as diamond s 1982a the structure of the model is such that the externalities do not give rise to multiple equilibria the key element of the model which is responsible for the transmission of output shocks to unemployment is the equation for wages in markets where the allocation of jobs takes place through search both firms and workers have some monopoly power a point emphasised by mortensen 1970 though he attributed only temporary monopoly power and only to firms i use the nash bargaining solution to solve for the equilibrium wage rate and show that the firm s and worker s alternative returns threat points or

effort taxation and unemployment abstract the importance of the design of the income tax system for the incentive to supply effort is considered in a situation where firms set wages a tax reform raising marginal taxes at all income levels and increasing decreasing average taxes at high low income levels may lead to higher wages lower employment and higher unemployment

reassessing cyclical changes in workers labor market status gross flows and the types of workers who determine them this analysis using current population survey data yields statistically compelling evidence that cyclical variations in gross flows of u s workers that is variations by business cycle phase in the number of workers transitioning from one labor market state to another each month were substantially smaller in 1986 2005 than in 1968 86 the authors identify six types of workers who would be expected to contribute to cyclical variations in these flows counter intuitively one such group consists of individuals whose decisions to enter or exit the labor force are independent of labor market conditions estimates suggest that these noncyclical movers are an empirically important component of gross flows into the labor force the authors contend that the presence of noncyclical movers precludes accurate measurement of the contributions of workers whose entry and exit decisions are consciously influenced by labor market conditions

alleviating unemployment the case for green tax reforms abstract it has been argued recently that imposing taxes on pollution produces additional tax revenues which can be used to replace labour taxes and thus reap a double dividend in the form of improving environmental quality and alleviating unemployment this paper analyses the employment effects of revenue neutral green tax reforms by focusing on the revenue recycling effect our model contains three features which are important when looking at the employment effects of green tax reforms first there is unemployment in equilibrium second wages are determined endogenously third various institutional arrangements for taxing unemployment benefits for the price indexation of unemployment benefits and the personal tax exemption are considered it is shown that these institutional arrangements are crucial for the effectiveness of green tax reforms a revenue neutral green tax reform will boost employment if unemployment benefits are nominally fixed and taxed at a lower rate than labour income employment actually falls if unemployment benefits are price indexed and taxed at the same rate a revenue neutral green tax reform which increases the personal tax credit will never increase employment

estimating the natural rate of unemployment in euro area countries with co integrated systems given that for france germany italy and the netherlands the unemployment rates are best classified as i 1 we apply permanent transitory decompositions based on co integrated vector autoregressions var with relevant variables labour productivity wages tax wedges foreign relative prices to estimate the time varying natural unemployment rates in general all variables seem to matter and the results are quite different from published organization for economic co operation and development oecd nairus our implied unemployment gaps are better than the oecd gaps in predicting unemployment changes and inflation gaps but they are except for italy as bad as the oecd gaps for forecasting inflation changes

the effects of progressive income taxation on job turnover abstract we examine whether the level of the income tax rate and the convexity of the income tax schedule affect job mobility as measured by moving to a better job while the predicted effect of the level of the tax rate is ambiguous we predict that an increase in the convexity of the tax schedule decreases job search activity by taxing away some of the benefits of a successful job search using data from the panel study of income dynamics we estimate that both higher tax rates and increased tax rate progressivity decrease the probability that a head of household will move to a better job during the coming year our estimates imply that a five percentage point reduction in the marginal tax rate increases the average probability of moving to a better job by 0 79 percentage points a 8 0 increase in the turnover propensity and that a one standard deviation decrease in our measure of tax progressivity would increase this probability by 0 86 percentage points a 8 7 increase in the turnover propensity this estimate is robust to sensitivity analysis examining the importance of different sources of identification and variation in estimated effects across subgroups in the population our estimated importance of tax policy for job turnover suggests a potential role in explaining the responsiveness of taxable income to marginal tax rates

macroeconomic policy lessons of labor market frictions abstract the paper explores the consequences of macroeconomic policy for labor market outcomes in the presence of frictions it shows how policy may be useful in over riding frictions as well as how it might generate adverse outcomes a partial equilibrium empirically grounded model is used to simulate policy effects the key results are that policy has effects on the stochastic behavior of key variables measures that reduce unemployment also reduce its persistence and increase the volatility of vacancies hiring subsidies and unemployment benefits have substantial effects on labor market outcomes while employment subsidies or wage tax reductions are not very effective policy instruments

labour market participation in matching equilibrium this paper uses ideas developed recently in models of equilibrium search to consider the participation decision of workers who have different preferences for leisure the matching process is random the production process deterministic and wages are determined by a nash bargain among participants in steady state equilibrium the number of participants is inefficient due to externalities resulting from private decisions a condition for efficient worker participation is derived which turns out also to be the condition for efficient firm entry copyright 1987 by the review of economic studies limited

the sufficiency strategy would rich world frugality lower environmental impact abstract one alleged weapon against unsustainable environmental impact is for the wealthy to consume less this sufficiency strategy is to complement the efficiency strategy of lowering ratios of resource inputs to economic outputs the former would reduce the affluence factor in i pat the latter the technology factor that the latter strategy suffers from a consumption rebound is widely recognized this paper identifies a similar rebound when the affluence factor is autonomously lowered the lower initial demand lowers prices which in turn stimulates new demand by others the strategy moreover addresses only the rich raising questions of its theoretical maximum efficacy its proponents usually conflate frugality with the north south dichotomy and intra generational with inter generational equity moreover there are difficulties with the supporting arguments that frugality is good for one s own sake as well as for the environment and that the rich should lead the way to living more lightly personal behaviour change is furthermore not a substitute for international political efforts finally since all changes in right side factors of the i pat equation change other right side factors such indirect attacks on impact should be abandoned in favor of supply and emissions quotas