using real option analysis for highly uncertain technology investments the case of wind energy technology this study examines the feasibility of using a theoretical model and empirical analysis methods to value renewable energy re investment from perspective of real option analysis roa based on use of a roa approach the re value is evaluated with respect to its ability to conform to the main sensitivity analysis of re investment as well as an empirical method devised to value re investment by using actual data the economic intuitiveness underlying the decision making process for re investment is elucidated while empirical analysis is performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the options value embedded in current development planning in taiwan for wind energy in addition to revealing the advantages of re development when considering real option analytical results indicate that roa is a highly effective means of quantifying how investment planning uncertainty including managerial flexibility influences re development besides evaluating the value of current re investment this study demonstrates that results of the theoretical model empirical analysis and sensitivity analysis correlate well with each other restated the value of developing re increases when increasing the underlying price time to maturity risk free rate and volatility conversely the value of developing re decreases when increasing the exercise price

adapting contract theory to fit contract farming this article discusses the current state of contract theory and its usefulness for conceptualizing issues related to agricultural contracting i will discuss the limitations of existing theory for applied work and what methodological improvements are needed to enhance the usefulness of the theory to agricultural economists one pervasive problem is that the canonical economic literature on contracts is rather fragmented and the various methodological strands are narrow in their focus as such there is a need for agricultural economists to engage in methodological research to develop applied contracting models that can capture higher order features of real world agricultural contracts while delivering generalizable comparative statics predictions the need for such research is obvious as contracting continues to expand along the entire modern food marketing channel in the latter part of this article i develop a simple model to illustrate how classic methodological approaches can be combined with recent developments in contract and game theory to construct applied theory models that are useful for capturing some important features of agricultural contracts

governmental intervention approaches to promote renewable energies special emphasis on japanese feed in tariff abstract almost all countries have issued laws and regulations to promote renewable energy re however the applications and motivations of such laws as well as achievements have been different currently the japanese government has announced its targets to expand the electricity feed in tariff scheme for solar power along with other energy sources within two years to meet the goal set by the japanese prime minister who in the 15th united nations climate change conference cop15 held in september 2009 proclaimed to cut 25 of greenhouse gas ghg emissions from the 1990 levels by 2020 in this paper the current japanese energy policies and measures for promoting re in comparison to popular methods followed worldwide are explored furthermore a least cost feed in tariff lcfit simulation model for japanese case was developed to calculate the optimal mix of technologies to reach certain targets the lcfit also calculates the tariff that should be proposed for each technology and the total cost for the program with and without a carbon tax and estimates the premium added to the bill of the customer every month

on sharks trolls and their patent prey unrealistic damage awards and firms strategies of being infringed abstract patent trolls or sharks are patent holding individuals or often small firms who trap r d intensive manufacturers in patent infringement situations in order to receive damage awards for the illegitimate use of their technology while of great concern to management their existence and impact for both corporate decision makers and policy makers remains to be fully analyzed from an academic standpoint in this paper we show why patent sharks can operate profitably why they are of growing concern how manufacturers can forearm themselves against them and which issues policy makers need to address to do so we map international indemnification rules with strategic rationales of small patent holding firms and large manufacturers within a theoretical model our central finding is that the courts unrealistic consideration of the trade offs faced by inadvertent infringers is a central condition for sharks to operate profitably

optimizing the level of renewable electric r d expenditures using real options analysis abstract one of the primary objectives of the united states federal non hydro renewable electric r d program is to promote the development of technologies that have the potential to provide consumers with stable and secure energy supplies in order to quantify the benefits provided by continued federal renewable electric r d this paper uses real option pricing techniques to estimate the value of renewable electric technologies in the face of uncertain fossil fuel prices within the real options analysis framework the current value of expected future supply from renewable electric technologies net of federal r d expenditures is estimated to be 30 6 billion of this value 86 can be attributed to past federal r d efforts and 14 can be attributed to future federal r d efforts assuming continued federal r d funding at 300 million yr in addition real options analysis shows that the value of renewable electric technologies increases as current and future r d funding levels increase this indicates that the current level of federal renewable electric r d funding is sub optimal

conceptualization of energy security in resource poor economies the role of the nature of economy abstract this paper studies how energy security is conceptualized in four resource poor advanced island economies singapore south korea japan and taiwan it is found that the energy security conceptualization of the four economies in effect returns to the very original and conventional one stable and reliable energy supply however these economies are different in the level of stability and reliability demanded why are they similar in energy security conceptualization whereas different in the level of stability and reliability demanded adopting documentation analysis comparative study and the varieties of capitalism theory we find that the nature of economy constitutes the decisive factor that shapes energy security conceptualization the coordinated market economies cmes are more concerned about energy supply disruption than the liberalized market economies lmes the paper demonstrates that despite numerous energy security concepts in the literature resource poor economies still adopt the original and conventional one in practice the findings suggest that security of supply is the top measure for resource poor economies to improve their energy security and creating a joint petroleum and lng market would be desirable for the four economies in this study

technology as a complex adaptive system evidence from patent data this paper develops a theory of invention by drawing on complex adaptive systems theory we see invention as a process of recombinant search over technology landscapes this framing suggests that inventors might face a complexity catastrophe when they attempt to combine highly interdependent technologies our empirical analysis of patent citation rates supports this expectation our results also suggest however that the process of invention differs in important ways from biological evolution we discuss the implications of these findings for research on technological evolution industrial change and technology strategy 2001 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

simulating the impacts of contract supplies in a spot market contract market equilibrium setting this article embeds a principal agent model within a market equilibrium model of contract and cash markets to analyze the impact of contracting on the spot market for hogs the equilibrium model incorporates both quality differentiation in the contract market and an endogenously determined cash market price for three types of contracting scenarios market equilibrium conditions are derived and results are presented for a numerical example contrary to some empirical results our model shows that the increased supply of hogs under typical formula price contracts can increase or decrease the cash market price depending on the relative size of overall contract supplies

integrator contracts with many agents and bankruptcy this article analyzes optimal livestock production contracts between an integrator company and many independent growers in three similar industries broiler turkey and swine the analysis provides an explanation for the simultaneous existence of distinct incentive schemes in these industries by examining the effects of bankruptcy the key factors are shown to be the output price volatility and the firm size with large companies dominating the broiler industry a small price volatility facilitates the use of two part piece rate tournaments by contrast given the prevalence of smaller companies in the swine industry a larger price volatility generates a bankruptcy risk which renders the use of tournaments infeasible given the combination of medium size companies in the turkey industry an intermediate price volatility produces a mixed result where tournaments and fixed performance standards exist simultaneously

renewable energy policy evaluation using real option model the case of taiwan abstract this study presents a policy benefit evaluation model that integrates cost efficiency curve information on renewable power generation technologies into real options analysis roa methods the proposed model evaluates quantitatively the policy value provided by developing renewable energy re in the face of uncertain fossil fuel prices and re policy related factors the economic intuition underlying the policy making process is elucidated while empirical analysis illustrates the option value embedded in the current development policy in taiwan for wind power in addition to revealing the benefits that re development provides when considering real options analytical results indicate that roa is a highly effective means of quantifying how policy planning uncertainty including managerial flexibility influences re development in addition to assessing the policy value of current re development policy this study also compares policy values in terms of internalized external costs and varying feed in tariff fit simulation results demonstrate that the re development policy with internalized co2 emission costs is appropriate policy planning from sustainability point of view furthermore relationship between varying fit and policy values can be shown quantitatively and appropriate fit level could be determined accordingly

a primer on cardinal versus ordinal tournaments i introduction the tournament literature has considered primarily two relative performance evaluation schemes that are consistent with what we observe in practice the rationale behind each of these incentive schemes is that relative performance evaluation is useful when agent performance is subject to common shocks in which case individual performance is not a sufficient statistic for individual effort that is the performance of other agents can enhance the inference of the effort exerted by an individual agent one important difference between these schemes is that under rank order or ordinal tournaments the prizes are prespecified and agents compete for rank by contrast under two part piece rate or cardinal tournaments the total prize is fixed and agents compete for a share of the pie 1 each agent receives a base payment and a bonus depending on the difference of his performance from the average performance of his peers 2 average performance provides an informative signal about the value of common shocks inflicted on agents ordinal tournaments are prevalent in contests where rank is more important than individual performance for instance sports contests where contestants compete for medals or fixed prizes or when individual performance data are not readily available for instance promotion contests where the individual contribution of contestants cannot easily be separated from that of their co workers or subordinates by contrast cardinal tournaments are popular in several occupations or industries where cardinal performance data are readily available e g salesmen contracts physician contracts with hmos and agricultural contracts 3 both ordinal and cardinal tournaments are relatively simple to design even though they are only proxies of theoretically optimal schemes 4 prior literature has contrasted the efficiency properties of either ordinal or cardinal tournaments against those of piece rates under piece rates each agent is evaluated according to his absolute performance thus agents receive a base payment and a bonus which is based typically linearly on their individual output 5 piece rates are sometimes expressed as fixed performance standards when an agent s performance is evaluated against a fixed standard instead of the average output obtained lazear and rosen 1981 green and stokey 1983 and nalebuff and stiglitz 1983 have shown that ordinal tournaments are superior to piece rates when agent activities are subject to common shocks that affect performance 6 more recently marinakis and tsoulouhas 2012 2013 investigated and verified this result for cardinal tournaments relative performance evaluation via tournaments constitutes a pareto superior move by removing common uncertainty from the responsibility of agents and by charging a premium for this insurance the principal increases his profit without hurting the agents moreover by providing this type of insurance tournaments enable the principal to implement higher power incentives than under piece rates what is still an open question in the literature above is a comparison of ordinal to cardinal tournaments the consensus among tournament theorists is that even though ordinal tournaments are informationally wasteful as in holmstrom 1982 by ignoring the agents cardinal performance data if available they are however more general because they are less restrictive on the functional form of the contract i e they are step functions with a linear or non linear trend part of the appeal is that the founders of tournament theory focused on ordinal tournaments nevertheless a significant part of the current tournament literature has analyzed cardinal tournaments instead 7 this paper fills in this gap in theory by developing a framework that can be used to analyze both cardinal and ordinal tournaments as well as piece rates and in doing so it provides a primer on tournaments and piece rates

a review on global wind energy policy with the increasing negative effects of fossil fuel combustion on the environment in addition to limited stock of fossil fuel have forced many countries to inquire into and change to environmentally friendly alternatives that are renewable to sustain the increasing energy demand energy policy plays a vital role to mitigate the impacts of global warming and crisis of energy availability this paper explores the wind energy industry from the point of view of the wind energy policy it is noticed that energy policy could help increasing wind power generation as well as stimulating the energy industry it may be stated that without specific energy policy a country would not be able to solve the acute problems like reducing greenhouse gases ghgs emission scarcity of energy etc this paper discussed the existing successful energy policies for few selected countries based on literatures it has been found that fit rps incentives pricing law and quota system are the most useful energy policies practiced by many countries around the world then status of wind energy policy for malaysia was investigated and compared with few selected countries around the world

policies and legislation driving taiwan s development of renewable energy abstract under the current wave of international responses to the growing threat of climate change taiwan cannot afford to step back from its goal of advancing its renewable energy strengthening its energy self sufficiency and energy security this paper will first analyze the high level dependency structure of taiwan s energy demands then we will explore taiwan current situation in terms of renewable energy development furthermore from an overview of the course of changes and development in taiwan s energy policy highlight the commitment to and aims of taiwan s renewable energy development made by the government at the annual national energy conference fourth we shall analyse technological r d incentives taxes market reforms and other related policy tools fifth in light of public announcements and budgets set in recent years for taiwan s renewable energy research plan highlight main strategies being given impetus by the government sixth the author will discuss the implications of recent significant legal reforms to the development of renewable energy in taiwan and from the correlating aspects of industrial structures and energy consumption take the first steps in emphasizing the urgent need for adjustments to be made to taiwan s industrial structure finally this paper will conclude by examining current policies legislation and strategies which are in place to promote this area in taiwan and discuss the potential competitiveness and future scenarios which the development of renewable energy could mean for taiwan

considering the investment decisions with real options games approach abstract the mix of games theory with the real options has been a dynamic range of exploration in the most recent decade the engaging quality of the specialists for displaying aggressive speculation choices by blending ideas from both hypotheses is on account of a venture choice in a focused business sector can be seen in its substance as a game between firms in this paper we expand a model to consider finite horizon real option games under incomplete information with various parameters in incomplete information games firms actions express significant information about profitability to contestants the encapsulation of this information proposed original blocks in models with strategic interactions this is because of circularity where best exercise decisions are based on previous decisions taken which at a given time are quiet to be mentioned because about the dynamic programming principle we expand an extended version of the least squares monte carlo algorithm to confront these results the model can aid in understanding the relation between strategic optionality and information besides how this influences the best decision policy and its value results we find the informational feature is of great significance for firms best decision policy and optimization of project values

tournaments fairness and risk we estimate willingness to pay wtp to operate under two types of contracts tournaments ts and fixed performance standard contracts f our results are consistent with the notion that subjects having social preferences for fairness and care about risk that is when subjects experience greater inequity under tournaments relative to fixed performance contracts or experience greater revenue risk under tournaments the gap between wtp for fixed performance and tournament contracts increases ceteris paribus our results provide an explanation for grower dissatisfaction with tournament compensation schemes independent of possible concerns regarding opportunistic behavior by integrators

assessment of the feed in tariff mechanism for renewable energies in taiwan abstract due to taiwan s lack of natural resources dependence on imported energy and pursuit of sustainable development renewable energies are extremely important for taiwan s future energy supply since taiwan s feed in tariff fit is still in its initial stage one must examine whether the current system is compatible with a well designed fit scheme this study examines the main features of taiwan s fit system and assesses design options using several criteria additionally one of the most important elements of a fit scheme namely a tariff system is discussed taiwan s fit scheme has the design options required by well functioning fits and the guaranteed return tariff system coincides with the spirit underlying leading global fits however many issues such as setting goals by stages refinement of the tariff calculation methodology and elimination of other non economic barriers must be addressed to achieve future developmental goals and green industry growth

compound real options valuation of renewable energy projects the case of a wind farm in serbia abstract renewable energy sources have become a very important issue due to environmental and sustainability concerns in addition most renewable energy electricity generation res e projects are characterized by considerable uncertainty and sequential decision making these projects net present value npv is very often close to zero which renders them a good candidate for the application of real options valuation methodology of investment project appraisal this paper examines the real options valuation of a potential onshore wind farm project in serbia the binomial tree model spans a 15 year period consisting of a 2 year investment period and a 13 year operating period the first 12 years of which are protected by feed in tariffs according to local renewable energy regulations the authors examine a multi phased compound nested path dependent real option consisting of mutually exclusive options a sequential option to invest as well as expand repower contract and abandon options volatility which is calculated by means of a monte carlo simulation according to the logarithmic present value returns approach shows predominant sensitivity to the capacity factor simulated with the rescaled weibull s probability distribution the final binomial tree results show that the proposed sequence of options increases project value by transforming higher risk and lower return in the initial discounted cash flow model to lower risk and higher return in the ro model this paper contributes to the existing literature in at least two ways it presents in depth analysis of the real option application to the res e project and provides decision makers with sophisticated tool for improving strategic thinking capital budgeting and decision making processes

investment timing and optimal capacity choice for small hydropower projects this paper presents a method for assessing small hydropower projects that are subject to uncertain electricity prices we present a real options based method with continuous scaling and we find that there is a unique price limit for initiating the project if the current electricity price is below this limit it is never optimal to invest but above this limit investment is made according to the function for optimal size the connection between the real option and the physical properties of a small hydropower plant is dealt with using a spreadsheet model that performs a technical simulation of the production in a plant based on all the important choices for such a plant the main results of the spreadsheet are simulated production size and the investment costs which are in turn used for finding the value of the real option and the price limit the method is illustrated on three different norwegian small hydropower projects

the development of renewable energy in resource rich region a case in china abstract with the largest population living in rural areas the lack of clean energy supply is an important problem in china and the utilization of renewable energy not only meets the demand of energy but also provides a basis for environmental protection and sustainable development this paper reviews use of clean energy in a resource rich region including the basic principle of the development of recycling agriculture the potential the present status and the future of renewable energy in the region rural areas if the project will be finished there will be 300 000 families benefiting from it and it can bring at least 2 2 108 us dollars revenue increase directly the indirect revenue increase will be 0 15 billion us dollars the environment will be improved and the living standard in jincheng s rural areas is also be greatly improved because of developing biogas project based on the developing status and constraint conditions the solutions to further promote renewable energy projects in this region are also proposed

the impact of chinese carbon emission trading scheme ets on low carbon energy lce investment china is planning to introduce emission trading scheme ets to decrease co2 emission as low carbon energy lce will play a pivotal role in reducing co2 emissions our paper is to assess the extent and the conditions under which a carbon ets can deliver lce investment in china we chose wind technology as a case study and a real option based model was built to explore the impact of a number of variables and design features on investment decisions e g carbon and electricity price carbon market risk carbon price floor and ceiling and on grid ratio we compute critical values of these variables and features and explore trade offs among them according to our work a carbon ets has a significant effect on wind power plant investment although it cannot support investment in wind power on its own carbon price stabilization mechanisms such as carbon price floor can significantly improve the effect of carbon ets but the critical floor to support investment is still much higher than the carbon price in china pilot etss our results show that other policy measures will be needed to promote low carbon energy development in china

the relative effectiveness of patents and secrecy for appropriation abstract changes in patent law global competition and the rise of several new technologies suggest that patents could be of greater value than secrecy for many innovative firms particularly small firms that are unable to use market power or other factors to appropriate their investments in innovation data from the 1993 european community innovation survey cis for up to 2849 r d performing firms is analysed to determine the relative importance of secrecy vs patents this particular combination of appropriation methods is interesting because secrecy can act as a mutually exclusive alternative to patents the results show that a higher percentage of firms in all size classes rate secrecy as more valuable than patents however ordered logit regressions show that the probability that a firm rates secrecy as more valuable than patents declines with an increase in firm size for product innovations while there is no relationship for process innovations the firm s r d intensity has no effect on the relative value of secrecy vs patents there is weak evidence to show that participation in cooperative r d increases the value of patents over secrecy for product innovations the results are relevant to ongoing debates over changes to the patent system and the need for policies to encourage small firms to patent more

analysis of the policy effects of downstream feed in tariff on china s solar photovoltaic industry abstract the chinese government initiated the feed in tariff fit policy for downstream power generation in august 2013 the effectiveness of the downstream fit policy has attracted the attention of academia and government using the quarterly data of listed solar pv companies between 2009 and 2015 this paper provides an empirical analysis regarding the effects of the downstream fit policy we find that 1 the fit policy has significantly enhanced the inventory turnover of listed pv firms and improved their profitability 2 the fit policy has significant effects on the inventory turnover of midstream companies and mixed industry chain companies mainly engaged in downstream operations 3 fit policy is more favorable towards increasing the inventory turnover of private enterprises our results indicate that the fit policy can have substantial effects on the sustainable development of china s solar photovoltaic industry

evaluation of r d investments in wind power in korea using real option abstract in recent years many countries put an emphasis on the development and deployment of renewable energy to cope with the global environmental crisis such as depletion of fossil energy climate convention to control emissions of greenhouse gases among the various new and renewable energy sources the korean government selected wind power energy as one of the core areas for r d investments in this paper we evaluate the economic value of the investment in wind power energy r d in korea and optimal deployment timing of wind power technology by using the real option approach the real option model adopted in this paper assumes that a decision maker has a compound option to abandon deployment or continue the r d as a result by using empirical data of korea it is found that there exists a considerable amount of positive economic value of investments in wind power energy r d

taiwan s renewable energy strategy and energy intensive industrial policy abstract since taiwan is a densely populated island with almost no fossil energy resources the development of renewable energy is an important issue in the past industries with low energy productivity were encouraged for economic development but this structure of low energy productivity industries should now be adjusted to promote renewable energy and energy efficiency by analyzing the gross domestic product together with the energy consumption and co2 emissions for major industries in taiwan this paper considers what kinds of industries should be encouraged or discouraged for taiwan s future development in addition the recommendations for taiwan s renewable energy and energy intensive industrial policy are presented

are tournaments optimal over piece rates under limited liability for the principal a highly acclaimed result is that tournaments are superior to piece rates when the agents are risk averse and their production activities are subject to a relatively large common shock the reason is that tournaments allow the principal to trade insurance for lower income to the agents our analysis shows that this celebrated result does not carry over to the case when a limited liability bankruptcy constraint limits the payments the principal can make provided that the liquidation value of the firm is sufficiently small this finding has important implications for the vast number of limited liability firms even though limited liability becomes an issue for different ranges of liquidation values under the two schemes tournaments are still superior when the liquidation value of the firm is intermediate or large even though the limited liability constraint is still binding for intermediate values surprisingly uncertainty in the price of output strengthens the need for tournaments by expanding the range of liquidation values over which tournaments are dominant because price uncertainty introduces additional bankruptcy risk these findings provide insight into policy implications in the contracting out of services by state and local governments in procurement in rent seeking contests and in tournaments used by hmos

considering risks in early stage investment planning for emission abatement technologies in large combustion plants fossil fuels will continue to be the most important energy source for electricity generation in most parts of the world for the next decades therefore emission abatement technologies in large combustion plants are an important measure to reduce the emission of pollutants and to lower the negative effects thereof for humans animals and the environment investment decisions for emission reduction measures are however facing various kinds of risks and uncertainties caused by political technological economic and legal influences the consideration of these risks in early stage investment planning is often complex yet important for investors this paper investigates the possibilities to consider risks and uncertainties in early stage investment and cost calculation methodologies of different complexity the real options analysis is presented as well as less complex methods such as monte carlo or sensitivity analyses that lower the calculation effort the application of a specifically developed risk portfolio is recommended before quantitatively investigating risks this portfolio helps to identify the most critical risks and to focus on them reducing again the calculation effort the presented approach is not only of interest for investors but also for policies especially if data is scarce or uncertainties exist regarding specific plant parameters or cost and price components the content of this paper is presented using the example of nitrogen oxide emission reduction measures it is however possible to transfer the results to other pollutants or technologies in a related context

enhancing renewable and sustainable energy development based on an options based policy evaluation framework case study of wind energy technology in taiwan global warming and climate change have shifted the focus of industrial development towards low carbon renewable energy re as evidence by global efforts to develop re based sustainable energy policies however the generally cost ineffective nature of re investments explains continued governmental subsidies and draft assistance measures to encourage related industrial development reduce research and development r d costs and increase innovativeness besides measures to accelerate supply and reduced demand for energy sustainable energy policies must enact thoroughly planned legal and regulatory mechanisms notable examples of establishing a legal basis for a low carbon society in taiwan include the energy management act renewable energy development bill greenhouse gas reduction act draft and energy tax act draft however such legislative efforts occasionally conflict or compete with each other warranting further integration additionally re technologies are characterized by high r d costs long term planning and high investment risks therefore based on global trends in wind power development and related policy planning this study analyzes the feasibility of implementing management strategies in the development process and the correlations between such strategies additionally the achievements polices functions mechanisms promotion measures and future plans for related renewable and sustainable energy laws in taiwan is thoroughly reviewed an options based policy evaluation framework is also constructed based on governmental administrative considerations moreover the characteristics of options that lead to unforeseen circumstances during the planning of re development policies are discussed allowing us to derive real time response measures with a decision making value results of this study provide a valuable reference for governmental efforts to evaluate the merits and limitations of related policies concisely ultimately facilitating the formulation of re development policies

a real option analysis of investments in hydropower the case of norway abstract this paper presents a valuation study of hydropower investment opportunities in the norwegian context according to nve norwegian water resources and energy directorate the regulator there is a potential of 39 twh not yet developed generation in a normal year is approximately 120 twh by using the conceptual real option framework of dixit and pindyck 1994 investment under uncertainty princeton university press princeton nj one can estimate the value of investment opportunities to nok 11 million gwh eur 1 4 million gwh furthermore the optimal trigger price for initiating an investment based on electricity forward prices is calculated to nok 0 32 kwh eur 0 04 kwh the analysis shows consistency between real option theory and aggregate investment behaviour in norwegian hydropower

optimal over installation of wind generation facilities abstract this paper evaluates the economic benefits to over installing turbines on capacity constrained wind farm sites in order to capture more energy at low wind speeds although this implies curtailment at high wind speeds we show that over installing generation facilities can increase returns to investors and reduce system costs a detailed model based analysis is developed using british data with variations in the range of over installation the renewable policy support systems fixed feed in tariffs or green certificate premia to wholesale energy prices and the extent of replacement of fossil generation in the technology mix with wind in the cases of premia to market prices we use agent based computational learning and risk simulation to model market prices not only is over installation beneficial under fixed feed in tariffs but is more so under premia to market prices and increasingly so as wind replaces fossil generation

on the effectiveness of patenting strategies in innovation races which if any of a firm s inventions should it patent should it patent at all many companies engaged in an innovation race seek a patenting strategy that balances protection of their intellectual property against the knowledge spillovers resulting from disclosure requirements not much is known about factors that determine the patenting strategy best able to resolve this trade off although scholars in various management economics and engineering disciplines have researched patents and patenting regimes little work has addressed the normative issues that pertain to forming an appropriate firm level patenting strategy we develop an inventory of real life patenting strategies and integrate them into a coherent framework our simulation model characterizes the optimal patenting choices for different environmental and firm level contingencies while capturing the dynamics between competing firms we identify the firm s research and development strategy as the most salient determinant of its optimal patenting strategy our research contributes to establishing a contingency theory of patenting strategies this paper was accepted by david hsu entrepreneurship and innovation

renewable energy diffusion in asia can it happen without government support the dramatically increasing population of asia necessitates equally as dramatic increase in energy supply to meet demand rapidly increasing energy demand is a major concern for asian countries because the increase in demand is being met through the increased use of fossil fuel supply largely domestic coal and imported fuel renewable energy supply presents a lower emission pathway that could be a viable option for steering off the higher emissions path however several market economic institutional technical and socio cultural barriers hinder countries in moving from high to low emission pathway following a discussion on the rising demand for energy in asia and the prospects of partly satisfying it with renewable energy we outline the reasons for government support to tackle the barriers for widespread diffusion of grid based renewable energy additionally we also discuss workable models for strategic government intervention to support diffusion of grid based renewable energy in asia

a real options evaluation model for the diffusion prospects of new renewable power generation technologies this study presents a policy planning model that integrates learning curve information on renewable power generation technologies into a dynamic programming formulation featuring real options analysis the model recursively evaluates a set of investment alternatives on a year by year basis thereby taking into account that the flexibility to delay an irreversible investment expenditure can profoundly affect the diffusion prospects of renewable power generation technologies price uncertainty is introduced through stochastic processes for the average wholesale price of electricity and for input fuel prices demand for electricity is assumed to be increasingly price sensitive as the electricity market deregulation proceeds reflecting new options of consumers to react to electricity price changes such as time of use pricing unbundled electricity services and choice of supplier the empirical analysis is based on data for the turkish electricity supply industry apart from general implications for policy making it provides some interesting insights about the impact of uncertainty and technical change on the diffusion of various emerging renewable energy technologies

behavioral and welfare effects of tournaments and fixed performance contracts some experimental evidence using experimental economics we compare the efficiency and welfare effects of tournaments and fixed performance contracts our subjects agents were generally better off under fixed performance contracts but the advantage of the fixed performance contract disappears if the relative magnitude of the standard deviation of the common shock exceeds a critical value efficiency wise agents tend to exert higher effort under fixed performance contracts on average additionally an increase in the common shock standard deviation appeared to be associated with lower effort under tournaments our results shed light on the potential impact of legislative proposals to ban tournament contracts

secrecy versus patenting we develop an equilibrium search model of innovation with the possibility of multiple independent discovery we distinguish innovations from ideas and we view patents as probabilistic property rights that are constrained by the innovators option to keep the innovation secret we find that the patent system can simultaneously stimulate innovation information disclosure and welfare an optimal patent may provide more or less protection than secrecy and in many cases it provides less suggesting that its main function is information spreading rather than rewarding the costs of the innovative activity

oligopsony power asset specificity and hold up evidence from the broiler industry in this article we look for empirical evidence of hold up in broiler industry production contracts by using the cross sectional national survey of broiler growers first we focus on the problem of under investment and hypothesize that the degree of agent s grower s under investment systematically depends on the principal s integrator s market power and the level of asset specificity second we provide an indirect test of hold up by looking at the grower contract payoffs as a function of the frequency of the housing facilities upgrade requests and the principal s market power the results show moderate empirical support for the presence of hold up

regulating broiler contracts tournaments versus fixed performance standards grower discontent with tournaments as mechanisms for settling poultry contracts can largely be attributed to the group composition risk that tournaments impose on growers this article focuses on the welfare effects of a widely advocated regulatory proposal to prevent integrator companies from using tournaments and replace them with schemes that compare performance to a fixed standard the analysis shows that the mandatory replacement of tournaments with fixed performance standards absent any rules that regulate the magnitude of the piece rate can decrease grower income insurance without raising welfare however replacing tournaments with fixed performance standards can simultaneously increase income insurance and welfare provided that the magnitude of the piece rate is also regulated

analysis on energy intensive industries under taiwan s climate change policy abstract this study addresses the planning and implementation of energy industry and carbon economy policies concerning the development of the taiwan s energy intensive industries from perspective of climate change as a newly industrialized country taiwan attaches greater importance to the development of green energy and low carbon industries in cooperation with global pressure for carbon reduction due to climate changes through energy and industrial conferences thus in the past year the taiwanese government constructed four laws concerning energy and carbon reduction in order to drive the green energy industry furthermore it plans to reduce current carbon emission benchmarks nevertheless statistical analysis found that in the last decade energy intensive industries have presented structural unbalance regarding energy consumption co 2 emissions energy intensity contributions to the gdp and product value industries in the industrial sector have high energy consumption high carbon emissions and increase total domestic consumption and carbon emissions which have disproportionate contributions to industrial added value nevertheless the government continues to approve investments for such energy intensive industries and results in continuous increases in energy consumption and carbon emissions this contradictory phenomenon indicates that newly industrialized countries rely on a manufacturing economic structure which is difficult to adjust and violates the trends of a global low carbon economy hence the government must examine and adjust such unbalanced industrial structures where such adjustments are executed in a fair and just manner and encourage the development of high value added measures for low carbon manufacturing and service sectors to become equal with competitors in a global economy

evaluating energy security of resource poor economies a modified principle component analysis approach abstract this study proposes to aggregately measure energy security performance with the principal component analysis in its application of the methodology to four resource poor yet economically advanced island economies in east asia singapore south korea japan and taiwan this study establishes a novel framework to conceptualize energy security the framework incorporates three dimensions vulnerability efficiency and sustainability three indicators being allocated to each dimension the study finds that all the three dimensions are critical for the resource poor economies but have different weights in each of them an urgent task for these four economies is to implement energy efficiency and conservation measures liberalization of electricity sector can be a helpful tool to reduce energy consumption and increase efficiency all of them have been committed to promoting renewable energy development which shall be further expanded in these economies

motives to patent empirical evidence from germany abstract against the background of the patent upsurge we first analyse the role of patenting and alternative instruments to protect intellectual property based on a sample of german companies active in patenting in a second step we investigate the motives to patent considering sector and company size effects we find that company size matters both for the importance of instruments and the motives to patent especially important are the new strategic motives to patent like using patents to improve a company s own position in negotiations with partners licensees and the financial sector or to use patents as incentives for r d personnel or performance indicators these correlate positively with company size we derive some possible challenges for future patent policies from these insights

short term generation asset valuation a real options approach this paper discusses using real options to value power plants with unit commitment constraints over a short term period we formulate the problem as a multistage stochastic problem and propose a solution procedure that integrates forward moving monte carlo simulation with backward moving dynamic programming we assume that the power plant operator maximizes expected profit by deciding in each hour whether or not to run the unit that a certain lead time for commitment and decommitment decisions is necessary to start up and shut down a unit and that these commitment decisions once made are subject to physical constraints such as minimum uptime and downtime we also account for the costs associated with starting up and shutting down a unit last we assume that there are hourly markets for both electricity and the fuel used by the generator and that their prices follow ito processes using numerical simulation we show that failure to consider physical constraints may significantly overvalue a power plant

do tournaments solve the two sided moral hazard problem abstract the paper analyzes the optimality of relative performance evaluation via two part piece rate tournaments in incentive contracting with multiple agents and two sided moral hazard if the agents are risk averse it is shown that a tournament is optimal only when the following conditions hold i there is common uncertainty inflicted on the activities of the agents that is not contingent on their actions but can be contingent on the principal s action ii the principal sufficiently saves in transaction costs by employing a tournament iii the number of agents is sufficiently large then the feedback effect of using a tournament to monitor the agents is that the principal s moral hazard problem is relaxed when the principal takes a single action it can also be relaxed when the principal can vary her actions with the agents but there are economies of scale in her activity absent common uncertainty the optimum scheme is shown to be a fixed performance standard rather than a tournament but if the agents are risk neutral a tournament can still be optimal provided that ii and iii hold

milestone payments or royalties contract design for r d licensing we study how innovators can optimally design licensing contracts when there is incomplete information on the licensee s valuation of the innovation and limited control over the licensee s development efforts a licensing contract typically contains an up front payment milestone payments at successful completion of a project phase and royalties on sales we use principal agent models to formulate the licensor s contracting problem and we find that under adverse selection the optimal contract structure changes with the licensee s valuation of the innovation as the licensee s valuation increases the licensor s optimal level of involvement in the development directly or through royalties should decrease only a risk averse licensor should include both up front and milestone payments moral hazard alone is not detrimental to the licensor s value but may create an additional value loss when combined with adverse selection our results inform managerial practice about the advantages and disadvantages of the different terms included in licensing contracts and recommend the optimal composition of the contract

real options analysis for renewable energy investment decisions in developing countries abstract renewable energy projects in developing countries should provide clean energy supply as well as support sustainable economic development to this end risks arising from uncertainties such as rapidly changing technologies and host government conditions should be carefully addressed however traditional methods for economic assessment are not adequate to support decision making regarding investments in renewable energy this paper proposes a real options analysis framework as a tool to assess renewable energy investment in developing countries a case study involving a hydropower project in indonesia was conducted to validate and verify the proposed framework this framework is expected to help host countries and investors assess renewable energy projects with high volatility and risk

valuing investment decisions of renewable energy projects considering changing volatility abstract volatility is an important parameter when evaluating investments using the real options method for renewable energy investments the volatility of cash flow continuously changes because as new information and knowledge are gathered there is less foreseen variation this paper proposes an extended recombining trinomial tree model where the changing volatility is used to generate transition probabilities the changing volatility is generated using a consolidation process where multiple random variables including the market price of electricity carbon price and lending rate are integrated into a low dimension stochastic process a two factor learning curve is used to model the changes of investment cost we apply the proposed model to analyze solar photovoltaic pv power generation investment in china the results show volatility with changing feature compared with constant volatility changing volatility may advance investment decisions and change the project value complete grid parity policy in the solar pv industry is infeasible because the opportunity cost brought by the option of delaying cannot be offset the changing volatility may produce a lower and equally effective subsidy level compared with constant volatility a carbon emission trading scheme is helpful in advancing investments in renewable energy which is reflected in improvements in project value advancements in investment decisions and reductions in the required subsidy level

a hierarchical cost learning model for developing wind energy infrastructures renewable energy has been increasingly promoted and used to substitute non renewable fossil fuels which cause negative effects on the environment the taiwan statute for renewable energy development has regulated and promoted renewable energy since 2009 a feed in tariff fit for renewable energy is one of the incentives that the government uses to promote the installation of green power generation facilities the price of the electricity feed in tariff is based on the current and future costs of renewable energy generation when analyzing cost trends for renewable energy installation many researchers use a single factor cost learning curve model however past studies indicate that there are multiple factors affecting the overall cost of installing renewable energy hence this research develops a hierarchical installation cost learning model which considers multiple factors to accurately model and forecast wind energy development this research uses wind power development data from taiwan as a case study we identify the cost factors evaluate the learning effects and compare the hierarchical learning curve model to the basic non hierarchical learning curve model the research results show an improved fit between the hierarchical model and the actual data when compared to the basic learning model the study also provides new insights between the wind power learning progression of taiwan and three countries in europe

the patent paradox revisited an empirical study of patenting in the u s semiconductor industry 1979 1995 we examine the patenting behavior of firms in an industry characterized by rapid technological change and cumulative innovation recent survey evidence suggests that semiconductor firms do not rely heavily on patents to appropriate returns to r d yet the propensity of semiconductor firms to patent has risen dramatically since the mid1980s we explore this apparent paradox by conducting interviews with industry representatives and analyzing the patenting behavior of 95 u s semiconductor firms during 1979 1995 the results suggest that the 1980s strengthening of u s patent rights spawned patent portfolio races among capital intensive firms but it also facilitated entry by specialized design firms

willingness to pay for renewable energy investment in korea a choice experiment study abstract renewable energy sources are considered as alternatives for coping with the high price of oil and global warming the korean government has set a target that 11 of the total primary energy supply should be obtained through renewable energy sources until 2030 in order to develop proper policies for renewable energy investment it is necessary to analyze the benefits of renewable energy investment based on households willingness to pay this study attempts to apply a choice experiment ce for assessing renewable energy investment in korea moreover we employ a multinomial probit mnp model to relax the assumption that all respondents have the same preferences for the attributes being valued which is usually required in empirical ce studies an mnp model allows the most flexible pattern of error correlation structure the results reveal that the korean public puts a value on the protection of wildlife reduction of pollution and increased employment opportunities on the other hand respondents do not derive significant values from the improvement of landscapes this study is expected to provide policy makers with useful information for evaluating and planning policies related to renewable energy investment

development of taiwanese government s climate policy after the kyoto protocol applying policy network theory as an analytical framework abstract given its limited involvement in and recognition by international organizations taiwan is not presently a signatory to the united nations framework convention on climate change unfccc or the kyoto protocol the objective of this study is to analyze how and the extent to which changes in an exogenous factor namely the kyoto protocol and post kyoto climate negotiations affect and ultimately lead to the formulation of and changes in the taiwanese government s climate policy this study applies policy network theory to examine the development of and changes in the taiwanese government s climate policy the results demonstrate that international climate agreements and negotiations play a key role in the development of changes to and transformation of taiwan s climate policy scarce evidence was found in this study to demonstrate that domestic or internal factors affect climate change policy despite its lack of participation in the unfccc and the kyoto protocol taiwan has adopted national climate change strategies action plans and programs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions however these climate policies and measures are fairly passive and aim to only conform to the minimal requirements for developing countries under international climate agreements and negotiations this process results in inconsistent and variable climate policies targets and regulations

renewable energy in eastern asia renewable energy policy review and comparative swot analysis for promoting renewable energy in japan south korea and taiwan abstract japan south korea and taiwan are deficient of domestic fossil energy sources and depend significantly on imported fuels since the oil shock in the 1970s all three countries have promoted renewable energy as an alternative energy source to improve energy security currently renewable energy is being promoted to build low carbon economies this study reviews the development of renewable energy policies and roadmaps it also examines and compares strengths weaknesses opportunities and threats swot of these countries in the context of advancing renewable energy policies and technologies and expanding domestic renewable energy installations as well as strategically positioning themselves in the international renewable energy market as exporters of clean energy technologies through the swot analysis this paper identifies a capacity for additional renewable energy deployment in these countries and highlights the necessity of increased cooperation between the three countries to strengthen their domestic and regional renewable energy sectors and compete in the global renewable energy market in the post fukushima era

the economics of product patents this paper develops a model of product patents in which the patent changes the nature of market entry behavior rather than preventing entry entirely the model incorporates three levels of action namely the innovator s patenting decision the potential entrant s location decision and possible court action the analysis demonstrates how the characteristics of the patents system and the enforcement framework can influence rivals variety choices and thus the market equilibrium it also considers how the system can in principle be adjusted to improve social welfare copyright 1990 by american economic association

how broad should the scope of patent protection be i explore the trade off between a patent s length that is its lifetime and its width that is its scope of coverage a wider patent generally reduces the distortion of consumers choices between the patented brand of the product and unpatented lower priced varieties sold by competitors but also permits higher prices which increase relative to profits the deadweight losses from consumers switching consumption out of the product class i show under what conditions infinitely lived but very narrowly focused patents are the socially efficient way to reward innovation and under what conditions very short lived but very broad patents are optimal

simultaneous model of innovation secrecy and patent policy multiple innovators can and do come up with the same invention independently a famous case is the telephone two hours after alexander graham bell filed a patent application for it another application for the same invention arrived at the patent office many scholars such as ilkka rahnasto 2003 and hal r varian et al 2004 argue that since bell s time simultaneous innovation has become increasingly common we feel and our discussions with industry practitioners confirm that the simultaneous model of innovation characterizes especially network industries such as consumer electronics the internet software telecommunications and payment systems where standardization limits the possible paths for future technologies and so firms concentrate their r d activities on the same fields we suggest that simultaneous or independent invention has major implications for intellectual property ip policy in particular the possibility of simultaneous innovation changes the patenting decision firms tap patents for a defensive purpose since the choice is no longer between patenting or resorting to trade secrecy but between patenting or letting competitors patent by exploiting the vulnerability of innovative firms to rival innovation it is possible to design a welfareimproving patent system that induces innovators to patent rather than keep their innovations secret taking the simultaneous nature of innovation seriously also changes the way one should think about the relationship between ip and competition policies

the economic effects of franchise termination laws we would like to thank blake rhodes and pam schommer for excellent research assistance participants in workshops at arizona state university university of california berkeley the university of chicago dartmouth college iowa state university the justice department the university of rochester and the university of utah as well as jeff coles arnold cowan jim dana franklin m fisher stuart gilson ben hermalin cliff holderness gregg jarrell alan krueger wayne mikkelson walter oi jim poterba ajai singh cliff smith kathy spier david weisbach jamie zender jerry zimmerman and especially kevin j murphy and an anonymous referee for comments on an earlier draft brickley and weisbach thank the managerial economics research center of the university of rochester and the john m olin foundation and dark thanks the college of business at iowa state university for financial support brickley also thanks the garn institute of finance at the university of utah for financial assistance 1 see mark robichaut franchise rules are back off drawing board wall st j july 6 1990 at bl note that in this article we focus on laws that apply to business format franchises for an analysis of state laws in automobile franchising see richard l smith ii franchise regulation an economic analysis of state restrictions on automobile distribution 25 j law econ 125 1982 richard a epstein unconscionability a critical appraisal 18 j law econ 293 314 15 1975 and paul h rubin the theory of the firm and the structure of the franchise contract 21 j law econ 223 1978 other work on the economics of franchising includes james a brickley frederick h dark the choice of organizational form the case of franchising 18 j fin econ 401 1987 james a brickley frederick h dark michael s weisbach an agency perspective on franchising 20 fin mgmt 1991 in

real option valuation in renewable energy literature research focus trends and design abstract in light of intensive development of the renewable energy re sector a growing number of academic papers address the complexity of re investment planning and valuation to take account of the high risk profile and irreversibility of re investments researchers have resorted to sophisticated real options ro approaches that enable flexibility to be incorporated into project design in the face of an uncertain environment the variety of different frameworks and models adopted as well as a lack of aggregated analysis of the field suggest a need for a critical review of ro methodology and design in re assessment this study describes the research focus trends and design found in contemporary academic literature devoted to re valuation with a ro approach particular attention is given to ro in project and policy design the results give a comprehensive picture of existing research on the topic thus providing researchers with a solid foundation for further study and indications of directions for future development furthermore the findings provide policymakers and project planners with valuable insights into key aspects of re project and policy design

novelty and disclosure in patent law the stringency of the novelty requirement in patent law affects the pace of innovation because it affects the amount of technical information that is disclosed among firms it also affects ex ante profitability of research we compare weak and strong novelty requirements from the standpoint of social efficiency we ask how our answer depends on the rule that determines which firm gets a patent when two firms have patents pending on the same technology the possible rules are first to invent which applies in the u s and first to file which applies everywhere else

pre grant patent publication and cumulative innovation abstract we examine the implications of pre grant publication pp of patent applications in the context of a cumulative innovation model we show that pp leads to fewer applications and fewer inventions but it may raise the probability that new technologies will reach the product market and thereby enhances consumer surplus and possibly total welfare as well

patent litigation as an information transmission mechanism patent litigation reveals important information about the validity of the contested patent to other potential entrants this paper explores the implications of such informational externalities for entry dynamics in the presence of multiple potential entrants the nature of the entry game can be one of either waiting or preemption depending on the degree of patent protection therefore the payoffs for the patentee and the initial imitator are discontinuous in the degree of patent protection furthermore strengthening intellectual property rights is not necessarily desirable for the patentee the analysis may also help explain the apparently puzzling practice of delaying patent suits copyright 1998 by american economic association

an analysis of the principal agent problem most analyses of the principal agent problem assume that the principal chooses an incentive scheme to maximize expected utility subject to the agent s utility being at a stationary point an important paper of mirrlees has shown that this approach is generally invalid we present an alternative procedure if the agent s preferences over income lotteries are independent of action we show that the optimal way of implementing an action by the agent can be found by solving a convex programming problem we use this to characterize the optimal incentive scheme and to analyze the determinants of the seriousness of an incentive problem

a dynamic game of r and d patent protection and competitive behavior a theory of dynamic optimal resource allocation to r and d in an n firm industry is developed using differential games this technique represents a synthesis of the analytic methods previously applied to the problem static game theory and optimal control the use of particular functional forms allows the computation and detailed discussion of the nash equilibrium in investment rules this paper addresses the problem of resource allocation to research and development among the important issues that a firm engaging in r and d must evaluate are uncertainty regarding the feasibility and profitability of a particular innovation the possibility of a protracted development period the possibility that a rival firm may innovate first capturing either a patent or a significant share of the new market the possibility that a rival firm may imitate the innovation and appropriate some of the profits in the new market in what follows we will develop a theory of optimal resource allocation to research and development which incorporates the aspects of r and d enumerated above we will use a dynamic game theoretic analysis determining the nash equilibrium strategies for n identical firms the availability of perfect patent protection is shown to accelerate development of the innovation and the effect of increasing rivalry is addressed the impact of increasing rivalry on nash equilibrium investment in r and d depends upon the degree of appropriability of rewards if patent protection is perfect then increasing the number of nash rivals results in increased r and d effort however when imitation is rewarded the opposite may be true finally some notions of competitive and perfectly competitive equilibrium are examined in the context of the model developed below

wind power reliability valuation in a hydro dominated power market the colombian case abstract the design of market mechanisms that remunerates the reliability provided by a generator in a power market is a task that aims to ensure the normal operation of the system for the case of a hydro dominated system when wind power is introduced and operated under the merit order effect it is possible to assess the effect of the displacement of hydro generation due to wind generation over the system s reliability in terms of firm energy taking this into account a model that valuates the firm energy provided by wind power in a hydro dominated system is proposed this model considers the effect of wind power over the system s reservoirs and the market price of electricity and valuates the firm energy as the net savings of the system related to the increase in the firm energy of the system when wind power is introduced the results show that wind power under merit order effect increases the firm energy of the system and decreases the market price of electricity being the net savings in comparison to the corresponding hydro only system the reliability income that should be perceived by the wind power generator

impact of climate policy uncertainty on the adoption of electricity generating technologies this paper presents a real options model where multiple options are evaluated simultaneously so that the effect of the individual options on each other is accounted for we apply this model to the electricity sector where we analyze three typical technologies based on fossil fuel fossil fuel with carbon capture and renewable energy respectively in this way we can analyze the transition from co2 intensive to co2 neutral electricity production in the face of rising and uncertain co2 prices in addition such a modelling approach enables us to estimate precisely the expected value of perfect information i e the willingness of investors and producers to pay for information about the correct co2 price path as can be expected the expected value of information rises with increasing co2 price uncertainty in addition the larger the price uncertainty the larger are the cumulative co2 emissions over the coming century the reason for this is that the transition to less co2 intensive technologies is increasingly postponed with rising co2 price uncertainty by testing different price processes geometric brownian motion versus jump processes with different jump frequencies we can also make useful recommendations concerning the importance of policy predictability we find that it is better to have climate change policies that are stable over a certain length of time and change abruptly than less abrupt but more frequently changing policies less frequent fluctuations reduce the expected value of information and result in smaller cumulative co2 emissions