patterns of agrarian transition karen macoursuniversity of california berkeley and katholieke universiteit leuvenjohan f m swinneneuropean commission and katholieke universiteit leuveni introductioneconomic reforms have induced important output and productivity changesin the agricultural sectors of transition countries tcs there are however large differences between the countries in terms of the direction and themagnitude of these changes for example agricultural output increased con siderably in the east asian tcs while there was a large output fall in thecentral and east european countries ceecs and the former soviet union fsu during transition g 1

radicalism versus gradualism an analytical survey of the transition strategy debate academic debate on a transition strategy for former socialist economies continues even a quarter century after the collapse of the communism in central and eastern europe and the former soviet union in this paper through an analytical survey of 137 preceding studies we present an overall picture of the debate and examine the relationship between the debate attitudes and the literature attributes in related studies we found that the radicalists maintain a consistent debate attitude from the viewpoints of time speed and policy sequence of economic transition while the debate attitude of the gradualists is more diversified we also found that there is another group of researchers that stays within the framework of the radicalism versus gradualism debate while at the same time keeping at arm s length from both the radicalists and the gradualists in addition our regression estimation of qualitative selection models provides interesting findings on the relationship between the debate attitudes and the literature attributes

credible commitment and success with public enterprise reform abstract this paper studies why some efforts at public enterprise reform fail and why others succeed economic reforms are intended to increase efficiency and thus help sustain long term growth yet many governments have had difficulty sustaining the reforms they initiated and have reintroduced rigid controls over markets and enterprises this is because either in the process of implementation the government discovers that the costs of carrying the reform further are greater than the expected efficiency gains or the public is skeptical that the new policies can be sustained and does not take the actions necessary for the gains to be realized this paper develops a new institutionalist framework and employs various measures of policy commitment and net gain from continued reform to analyze these issues the paper suggests ways in which the potential success or failure of a reform can be assessed with implications for the steps that reformers might take to increase the chances of success

ramsey discounting of ecosystem services most ecosystem services which are essential for human well being are globally declining while the production of consumption goods measured by gdp is still growing to adequately account for this opposite development in public cost benefit analyses it has been proposed based on a two goods extension of the ramsey growth model to apply good specific discount rates for manufactured consumption goods and for ecosystem services using empirical data for ten ecosystem services across five countries and the world at large we estimated the difference between the discount rates for ecosystem services and for manufactured consumption goods in a conservative estimate we found that ecosystem services in all countries should be discounted at rates that are significantly lower than the ones for manufactured consumption goods on global average ecosystem services should be discounted at a rate that is 0 9 pm 0 3 points lower than the one for manufactured consumption goods the difference is larger in less developed countries and smaller in more developed countries this result supports and substantiates the suggestion that public cost benefit analyses should use country specific dual discount rates one for manufactured consumption goods and one for ecosystem services

commitment coordination failures and delayed reforms abstract economic reforms are often postponed even if they are clearly beneficial i argue that this may reflect a government s need to improve its reputation before it can enact a reform successfully i study a model in which the government has a commitment problem in setting taxes that pay for reform market expectations about future policy which determine investment become fundamental for the reform s success reform may be postponed as the government builds credibility with a period of low taxes depending on expectations better equilibria may exist the robustness of this explanation and its policy implications are discussed

privatisation the market for corporate control and capital flight from russia the estimates of the amount of capital flight vary widely ranging from a low of 30 billion toa high of 300 billion 1privatization the market for corporate control and capital flight from russiaronald w introbedepartment of economics university of w estern ontario1 introductionwhile the data are ambiguous and estimates vary considerably there seems to be a generalconsensus that some perhaps a substantial amount

modelling the non market environmental costs and benefits of biodiversity projects using contingent valuation data cv studies rarely ask willingness to accept wta questions yet there are a range of environmentalprojects where there are likely to be potential losersas well as gainers this paper presents evidence fromsix biodiversity projects that the inclusion ofcontingent compensation payments from thoserespondents who preferred the status quo cansubstantially reduce net project benefits even whenthe proportion of losers is relatively small astatistical model for estimating the mean welfaremeasure from dichotomous choice data which allows forboth positive wtp zero wtp and wta is described asmany environmental projects are likely to create bothgainers and losers we recommend that cv analysts giveserious consideration to the collection and analysisof wta data otherwise they risk generating biasedestimates of project benefits

external debt capital flight and political risk abstract this paper explains the simultaneous occurence of large external debts private capital outflows and low domestic capital formation we consider a general equilibrium model in which two government types with conflicting distributional goals randomly alternate in office uncertainty over the fiscal policies of future governments generates capital flight and small domestic investment and induces the government to overaccumulate external debt the model also predicts that left wing governments are more inclined to restrict capital outflows than right wing governments finally we examine how political uncertainty affects the risk premium and how debt repudiation may occur after a regime change

willingness to accept willingness to pay and the income effect abstract the gap between willingness to pay wtp and willingness to accept wta has previously been studied by searching for evidence of substitutability the neoclassical hypothesis or status quo bias testing for neoclassical versus psychological theories of preferences we study the gap differently asking whether the observed pairs of wta and wtp are consistent with neoclassical preferences we use sugden s alternatives to the neoclassical theory of choice in i bateman k g willis eds valuing environmental preferences theory and practice of the contingent valuation method in the us eu and developing countries oxford university press oxford pp 152 180 chapter 6 result showing that the effect of income on wtp can be approximated from information on the ratio wta wtp drawing inferences from a meta analysis of 201 wta wtp ratios we conclude that the data are not consistent with neoclassical preferences

international trade agreements and international migration despite large potential economic gains bilateral and multilateral negotiations focusing on liberalisation of migration have not shared the high profile of international trade negotiations and agreements migration and trade have been traditionally viewed rather separately and the relevance of the many and complex interdependencies has been given remarkably little attention in the literature to date in this article we focus on the two way interaction between international migration and agreements designed to enhance cross border trade and investment liberalisation of international trade in services and in the movement of people potentially offers much greater economic gains than liberalisation of remaining barriers to goods trade however progress within multilateral frameworks is fraught with difficulty the world trade organization s general agreement on trade in services gats has yielded little real progress so far and negotiations within more flexible unilateral and bilateral frameworks are likely to be more successful in liberalising the movement of labour we discuss a range of specific examples focusing particularly on the interesting case of new zealand we find that trade agreements are increasingly including agreements on migration though typically favouring temporary migration and involving numerically modest quotas we conclude that migration regulatory frameworks are likely to be further and more strongly linked to trade and investment agreements in the future particularly given changing economic and demographic forces the primary focus of migration policies may nonetheless remain different from that of trade policies while further migration liberalisation is likely to be through bilateral and regional agreements it will be important to try to lock in the gains of such agreements while simultaneously working to consolidating these in a way that will help to facilitate future multilateral agreement

does don t know mean no analysis of don t know responses in dichotomous choice contingent valuation questions the don t know response option in contingent valuation dichotomous choice questions is analysed using data from both willingness to pay and willingness to accept studies an empirical analysis is conducted to determine whether respondents are stating a response similar to yes or no responses or a middle response it is found that don t know responses are similar to no responses in the willingness to pay study in the willingness to accept study it is found that the don t know responses are similar to a middle response it is further suggested that researchers consider calculating ambivalence bounds when a don t know response is a middle response

sharing the national cake in post reform new zealand income inequality trends in terms of income sources abstract using household economic survey hes data in unit record form this paper examines the trends of household income inequality in new zealand over the period 1984 96 a period that saw new zealand implement a wide range of economic and social policy reform the observed changes in the overall income inequality are then decomposed by income components to measure the contributions of the different sources of personal income to the overall inequality to our knowledge this is the first time that the methodology for disaggregating the gini co efficient including its more recent extensions by lerman and yitzhaki review of economics and statistics 63 1985 151 podder review of income and wealth 39 1993 51 and mookherjee and shorrocks economic journal 92 1982 886 has been applied to micro level new zealand data for computing income inequality and other related indices and measures reported in this study the findings which indicate a steady upward trend in income inequality are examined in the light of the reform policies used at the time their implications for policy are also addressed

foreign aid and market liberalizing reform market oriented economic policies reflected in limited economic activity by government protection of private property rights sound monetary policy outward orientation regarding trade and efficient tax and regulatory policy have been strongly linked to faster rates of economic growth foreign aid is often provided in the belief that it encourages liberalizing reforms in these areas this paper analyzes the impact of aid on market liberalizing policy reform correcting for the possible endogeneity of aid results indicate that higher aid slowed reform over the 1980 2000 period as measured by a broad index of policies disaggregating policy into five areas aid is significantly linked to slower reform in some policy areas but not in others disaggregating by decade aid s adverse impact on policy reform is much more pronounced for the 1980s than for the 1990s

resistance to reform status quo bias in the presence of individual specific uncertainty comment why do governments so often fail to adopt policies which economists consider to be efficiency enhancing our answer to this question relies on uncertainty regarding the distribution of gains and losses from reform we show that there is a bias towards the status quo and hence against efficiency enhancing reforms whenever some of the individual gainers and losers from reform cannot be identified beforehand there are reforms which once adopted will receive adequate political support but would have failed to carry the day ex ante the argument does not rely on risk aversion irrationality or hysteresis due to sunk costs jel d72 f13 why do governments so often fail to adopt policies that economists consider to be efficiency enhancing this is one of the fundamental questions of political economy the answer usually relies on what may be

distance time and specialization lean retailing in general equilibrium transport time increases with distance traveled and time is valuable we show the implications of these facts for global specialization and trade products where timely delivery is important will be produced near the source of final demand where wages will be higher as a result in the model timely delivery is important because it allows retailers to respond to final demand fluctuations without holding costly inventories and timely delivery is possible only from nearby locations using a unique dataset that allows us to measure the retail demand for timely delivery we show that the sources of u s apparel imports have shifted in the way predicted by the model with products for which timeliness matters increasingly imported from nearby countries jel f1 transporting goods and people costs time and money and both transport fees and time in transit generally increase with the distance traveled these facts imply an incentive to economize on distance and the equilibrium effects

common fallacies in the debate on the transition to a market economy fallacies and other lessons leszek balcerowicz words and the concepts they express exert a powerful influence on political debate and policy decisions in transition economies in this introductory essay the principal architect of the first radical reform programme in europe after the fall of the berlin wall develops a lexicon of common fallacies in the political debate and introduces many of the main themes of the volume one common fallacy is that of country specificity ukraine is different what worked or did not work elsewhere is not relevant here some countries may indeed have specific economic problems viz the huge military industrial sector in ukraine but economic theory is clear about which policies are best for basic problems macroeconomic stabilization as the appropriate response to hyperinflation price liberalization and liberalization of supply are the prescribed therapy for massive shortages etc so there are useful lessons to be learned from prior experience by the same token erroneous interpretation of those experiences can give credence to mistaken policy arguments for example the argument that whatever has been done before in the west must be right is itself clearly wrong similarly balcerowicz argues that china s success does not prove the universal merits of gradualism the agricultural reforms of the late 1970s in china were in practice surprisingly radical the essay identifies many other pitfalls in reasoning about transition experience several having to do with the failure to apply ceteris paribus reasoning for example the fall in output in 1991 in all the countries connected with the former soviet union including finland was caused in large part by the collapse of their trade with the union and certainly not exclusively by the policies they followed there are numerous other examples

a new paradigm for valuing non market goods using referendum data maximum likelihood estimation by censored logistic regression abstract this paper challenges the w m hanemann amer j agr econom 66 332 341 1984 and c sellar j p chavas and j r stoll j environ econom management 13 382 390 1986 utilizations of logit models to estimate the value of non market resources from referendum survey data these data are more informative than conventional choice data the random utility interpretation of logit models is therefore too restrictive bypassing the utility function entirely it will be shown that parameters and standard errors for utility theoretic inverse hicksian demand functions can be extracted directly and much more simply estimated demand functions need not be limited to those corresponding to the linear in parameters utility difference specifications which can be handled by packaged logit programs

how misleading is linearization evaluating the dynamics of the neoclassical growth model this paper investigates the reliability of employing linearization to evaluate the dynamic adjustments to changes in productive government spending in a ramsey growth model if government expenditure is introduced as a flow and the dynamic adjustment is fast linearization may yield a reasonably good approximation to the true dynamics even for fairly large policy shocks if government expenditure assumes the form of a stock leading to more sluggish adjustment linearization may yield misleading predictions these errors occur at the beginning of the transition and weigh heavily in welfare calculations the implications for temporary shocks and the speed of convergence are also considered

fiscal conservatism as a response to the debt crisis abstract in this paper we develop a model in which social conflict and adjustment costs induce delayed inflation stabilization we show that the longer this delay is the less demanding are the conditions that some groups will accept in order to stabilize in the context of the latin american debt crisis our model gives a rationale for the time lag between the outset of the crisis and the implementation of reform programs as well as for the strongly conservative nature of those that are currently being implemented

why are stabilizations delayed when a stabilization has significant distributional implications e g tax increases to eliminate a large budget deficit socioeconomic groups may attempt to shift the burden of stabilization onto other groups the process leading to stabilization becomes a war of attrition each group attempting to wait the others out and stabilization occurring only when one group concedes and bears a disproportionate share of the burden the authors solve for the expected time of stabilization in a model of rational delay and relate it to several political and economic variables they motivate this approach and its results by comparison to historical and current episodes copyright 1991 by american economic association

public sector deficits and macroeconomic performance in the 1980s chronic public sector deficits forced countries to undertake fiscal adjustment the need to face hard choices continues in the 1990s but the problem is not a simple and easily diagnosed one with an obvious solution rather public sector deficits have had widely differing consequences high inflation in some countries low inflation but also low investment and growth in others and in still others no evident short term macroeconomic spillovers this book presents the findings of a world bank research project designed to shed light on the complex dynamics of public sector deficits it includes an in depth examination of eight countries argentina chile colombia cote d ivoire ghana morocco pakistan and zimbabwe these cases are analyzed within a comprehensive theoretical framework elaborated for the study and in conjunction with cross country data from a larger set the book draws the following conclusions the ways chosen to finance deficits money creation debt or arrears go far to explain medium term financial and macroeconomic imbalances but in the short term these relations are blurred deficits tend to be bad for growth they increase financial and price instability and crowd out private investment public saving typically reduces private saving only slightly increasing public saving is a very effective policy instrument for raising national saving fiscal adjustment typically leads to a lower trade deficit and a moredepreciated real exchange rate finally the blame for large systemic public deficits must be placed not on bad luck but on unwise policy choices and conversely sound fiscal policies can set a country on a path leading to stability and growth

the impact of single windows on trade this paper is the first that quantifies the impact of single windows sws on international trade globally sws function as a single point of entry and exit of the goods traded internationally and are therefore intended to facilitate trade using a structural gravity model for a panel of 176 countries from 1995 to 2017 we apply a log log and a poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimator ppml with multidimensional fixed effects to evaluate the extent to which export and import flows vary depending on whether or not countries have operational sws the main results from the linearised gravity model suggest that total trade between two countries with functioning sws increases by about 37 of which 23 corresponds to exports and 14 to imports the result from the ppml estimation also indicates a positive and significant effect which is however much smaller in magnitude

economic reform in new zealand 1984 95 the pursuit of efficiency between 1984 and 1995 new zealand changed from a closed and centrally controlled economy to one of the most open countries in the oecd the reforms liberalizing the economy were notable for their very comprehensive coverage and innovations that included performance contracts for senior civil servants and the central bank legislated constraints on fiscal expenditure decisions backed by accrual accounting tax neutrality subsidy free agriculture and no industry specific regulation of competition modern microeconomics contributed much to policy design economic growth has been vigorous since 1991 but a different sequencing of reforms may have enhanced outcomes

geppml general equilibrium analysis with ppml we develop a simple procedure for general equilibrium comparative static analysis of gravity models non linear solvers are replaced by constrained regressions using theoretical properties of the poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimator our geppml procedure can readily be implemented in any software capable of estimating constrained poisson models the procedure accommodates calibrated as well as estimated trade costs while using the estimation power of structural gravity to generate ge comparative statics using geppml we quantify the effects of a hypothetical removal of all international borders while preserving the impact of geography on trade we find that trade liberalisation has reaped at most half the potential world gains from trade in 2002 manufacturing a complementary counterfactual experiment simulates the removal of the border between canada and us thus contributing to the famous border puzzle literature in a multicountry setting

limits to substitution between ecosystem services and manufactured goods and implications for social discounting this paper examines implications of limits to substitution for estimating substitutability between ecosystem services and manufactured goods and for social discounting based on a model that accounts for a subsistence requirement in the consumption of ecosystem services we provide empirical evidence on substitution elasticities we find an initial mean elasticity of substitution of two which declines over time towards complementarity we subsequently extend the theory of dual discounting by introducing a subsistence requirement the relative price of ecosystem services is non constant and grows without bound as the consumption of ecosystem services declines towards the subsistence level an application suggests that the initial discount rate for ecosystem services is more than a percentage point lower as compared to manufactured goods this difference increases by a further half percentage point over a 300 year time horizon the results underscore the importance of considering limited substitutability in long term public project appraisal

capital flight and political risk abstract this paper provides the first serious attempt to examine the relationship between political risk and capital flight for a large set of developing countries the outcomes of the analysis show that in most cases political risk variables do have a statistically robust relationship to capital flight once domestic and international macroeconomic circumstances are added at least when the robustness test as proposed by sala i martin is applied we conclude that on the basis of the analysis in this paper we have found support for the hypothesis that political risk leads to increased capital flight

towards an equilibrium level of market reform how politics affects the dynamics of policy change in this article we examine the dynamics of economic reforms that are implemented by incumbent policy makers interested in maintaining their political power we use a sample of 86 countries over a time period going from 1980 to 2001 and find that the achievement of an equilibrium level of market liberalization is highly costly our results are robust to endogenity and model specification

government failure social capital and the appropriateness of the new zealand model for public sector reform in developing countries abstract the policy problems posed by a lack of state capacity in developing societies now attract the attention of a growing number of scholars both the government failure paradigm with its top down emphasis and the social capital theory with its stress on bottom up approaches provide analytical frameworks that can be used to comprehend the symptoms of state incapacity reported by the much broader literature on policy implementation this paper seeks to determine the implications of the government failure and social capital models for policy implementation more specifically the paper considers the contractualist approach to public management reform in new zealand as the epitome of a top down solution to government failure it will also evaluate this model from a social capital perspective and suggest ways in which a balanced approach to public sector reform can take into account elements of both paradigms

is the income elasticity of environmental improvements less than one we estimated the income elasticity of environmental improvements for a number of european data sets the value of this parameter is consistently found to be less than one with few exceptions our findings are compared with state of the art contingent valuation studies from other countries we also compared our findings with those reported in the literature on charitable donations and corporate donations these studies show a similar pattern donations decrease as a percentage of income as income increases

social polarization fiscal instability and growth abstract we present a dynamic model of fiscal policy in a simple growth framework where social polarization of preferences plays a central role in the evolution of fiscal instability and growth collapse in a highly polarized society a deficit occurs endogenously fiscal spending path becomes more volatile output collapses and economic growth rate is reduced along the transition path to a new lower level of output one novel feature is that the size of fiscal deficit the magnitude of fiscal volatility and the size of reduction in output and growth rate are explicitly shown to be increasing functions of the degree of social polarization this is because of the positive relationship between the polarization of preferences and the incentive for policymakers or socio economic groups to overexploit the government resources in a common pool setting polarization effect thereby we offer a fiscal instability channel that negatively links social polarization and growth which is an alternative yet distinct explanation for the empirical finding that social polarization is harmful to growth moreover we fully distinguish the incentive to engage in such short term policies under political uncertainty from that under polarization polarization and political uncertainty are shown to be distinct yet critical to the dynamic coordination failure in the common pool setting

the influence of political distortions on economic performance alberto alesina is the nathaniel ropes professor of political economy and chairman of the department of economics at harvard university in this interview he discusses with brian snowdon his views on several important contemporary issues including politics and the business cycle budget deficits currency unions the european union the size of nations economic growth inequality democracy foreign aid ethnic fractionalisation and the welfare state in the us and europe

detrending and the money output link international evidence 1 introduction and background the question of whether there exists an empirical link between nominal money and real output has been subjected to a variety of modern econometric techniques producing conflicting results for example stock and watson 1989 use a vector autoregressive var model that accounts for several important economic variables and find that money exerts a statistically significant effect on real economic activity friedman and kuttner 1992 1993 on the other hand show that using the same specification as stock and watson but extending their sample through the 1980s obviates the money income link friedman and kuttner s results indicate that interest rates are relatively more useful in explaining movements in output thoma 1994 also reports that changes in money do not have a statistically significant impact on output in the united states more recent studies both theoretical and empirical also have shown money to have little or no direct effect on economic cycles rudebusch and svensson 1999 2002 for example conclude that the behavior of money real or nominal has no marginally significant impact on deviations of real output from potential the output gap once past movements in the gap and real rates of interest are accounted for such findings on the basis of what meyer 2001 refers to as the consensus macro model have achieved an influential position among macroeconomists and policymakers 2 other studies challenge the argument that money does not affect real output an early study by christiano and ljungqvist 1988 using a bivariate var model reports the existence of a statistically significant money to output relation in u s data davis and tanner 1997 using monthly u s data extending back to the mid 1800s find that even after interest rate effects are allowed for money remains statistically significant in explaining short run movements in real output using a rolling regression approach swanson 1998 reports a statistically significant relation between money measured as simple sum aggregates and as divisia measures and output even after an interest rate spread variable is added to the model hafer and kutan 1997 considered whether different stationarity properties of the data have influenced reported outcomes since most prior studies assume difference stationarity hafer and kutan demonstrate that estimating var models that include money and interest rate variables under the existence of trend stationarity can dramatically affect the conclusion indeed they find that using a trend stationarity assumption yields the finding that money significantly affects real output movements in the united states a common characteristic of this literature is its focus on the united states there are a few exceptions for example krol and ohanian 1990 apply the stock watson specification to data for canada germany japan and the uk although money actual and detrended significantly affects output in the uk krol and ohanian find no such affect in japan canada and germany they conclude that although detrending the growth rate of u s money affects conclusions about the role of money little is gained from this approach when applied to the other countries another exception to the u s focus is a recent study by hayo 1999 using data from 14 european union eu countries plus canada japan and the united states hayo shows that money output test results are not sensitive to the use of data in levels versus data in differences an obvious question to ask then is whether nominal money is relatively more useful than interest rates in explaining movements in real output across a wider variety of countries that includes industrial and developing economies although the studies of krol and ohanian and hayo represent a broader analysis they too focus on the money output relation in relatively industrialized financially developed countries

can the world cut poverty in half how policy reform and effective aid can meet international development goals abstract poverty in the developing world will decline by about one half by 2015 if the trends of the 1990s persist most of this poverty reduction will occur in asia however while poverty will decline only slightly in africa effective aid could make a contribution to greater poverty reduction in lagging regions even more potent would be significant policy reform in these countries we develop a model of efficient aid in which flows respond to policy improvements that create a better environment for poverty reduction and effective aid we investigate scenarios of policy reform and efficient aid that point the way to how the world can cut poverty in half in every major region

income treatment effects in contingent valuation the case of the swedish predator policy this paper provides case study evidence on two relevant issues in estimating the relationship between wtp and income using contingent valuation 1 the choice of income measure and 2 the modelling choice addressing these issues a sensitivity analysis is performed on a dataset concerning implementation of the swedish predator policy the results show that the estimated income elasticity of wtp varies between 0 12 and 0 40 for the models estimated the main conclusion drawn from the analysis is that controlling for the number of adults in the household is important for finding a significant income effect when the household income measure is used besides this finding the empirical analysis finds little support for the hypothesis that the choice of income measure and modelling assumptions significantly influence the overall model fit

navigating institutional change the accord rogernomics and the politics of adjustment in australia and new zealand this article uses a transactions approach to examine the ability of governments to develop and sustain negotiated solutions to major economic challenges where actors are embedded in long term repeated interaction have long time horizons and invest in monitoring and enforcement technologies effective political exchange is more likely in good transactions environments policy bargains will be more easily renegotiated and therefore more flexible and durable to examine the expectations the author looks to the puzzle posed by events in australia and new zealand 1983 1996 facing similar macroeconomic crises and with historically similar wage bargaining institutions and levels of union density both elect labor governments which then make opposite choices a negotiated solution emerged in australia but not in new zealand relying on the secondary literature and interviews with key actors the author finds support for the transactions approach findings here point to ways in which to broaden the study of

economic factors and traffic crashes in new zealand the aim of this study was to examine the changes in the trend and seasonal patterns of fatal crashes in new zealand in relation to changes in economic conditions between 1970 and 1994 the harvey harvey and durbin journal of the royal statistical society 149 3 187 227 1986 structural time series model stsm an unobserved components class of model was used to estimate the quarterly number of fatal traffic crashes independent variables included distance travelled the unemployment rate uer real gross domestic product per capita rgdp the proportion of motorcycles the proportion of young males in the population alcohol consumption per capita the open road speed limit and dummy variables for the 1973 and 1979 oil crises and seatbelt wearing laws distance travelled rgdp uer and alcohol consumption per capita were significant factors in explaining the short run dynamics of fatal crashes with the effect of rgdp greater than uer increases in either rgdp or uer were related with decreas

understanding economic policy reform one of the eventual consequences of the global debt crisis was a wave of market oriented economic reforms this paper discusses the state of our knowledge on the political economy of this process why were inefficient and often unsustainable policies maintained for so long why are so many governments reforming now after decades of adherence to policies of an opposite kind have the reformers internalized the correct lessons from the east asian experience finally are there any helpful rules for reformers to follow in guiding their policies through complicated political terrain

the efficacy and cost of regime shifts in inflation policies evidence from new zealand and sweden in this paper a comparative study of the regime shift in inflation policies in new zealand and sweden is performed a nonparametric regression method is used to decompose the inflation time series into three components of variation a long term trend a medium term cyclical and transient variations trend and a short term shocks component this allows study of the transition process from the high inflation characterizing the end of the 1970s and the 1980s to the low inflation observed during the 1990s it is found that in new zealand although it is initially delayed the decrease in inflation happens at a faster pace than in sweden this may indicate that reforms were more efficient in new zealand a clear link is also shown between the rising unemployment and the transition from high to low inflation furthermore while in new zealand a downward adjustment of the unemployment rate happens directly after the transition period in sweden there seems to be persistence in high unemployment

spike models in contingent valuation spike models allow for a nonzero probability of zero willingness to pay in referendum style contingent valuation experiments they include many of the often used models as special cases and allow various analyses that are not possible in standard applications in this paper the economic rationale for the spike models and their estimation techniques are discussed and empirical illustrations are provided one study suggests that mean willingness to pay is zero and both studies strongly suggest that median wtp is zero these results have some bearing on the continuing debate of the incentive properties of hypothetical surveys and the construction of scenarios in contingent valuation experiments

environmental goods and the distribution of income the paper presents a theoretical investigation of the distributional impacts of environmental commodities it introduces an appropriate framework defines concepts for measuring benefits and examines the determinants of benefit incidence within this setup its emphasis is on methodology and on recognizing the relevant economic variables and information it turns out that in an equal preference model the magnitude of the income elasticity of marginal willingness to pay for an environmental good is the crucial variable determining progressivity it is related to a number of other elasticities which are more easily accessible to an empirical estimation

the political economy of food subsidy reform the case of egypt abstract this paper examines the political economy of food subsidy reform efforts in egypt egypt provides a case of a country with a large food subsidy program that has been relatively effective as a social safety net but a program that is also expensive and poorly targeted to the needy policy discussions about strategies to improve the system s performance run into the extreme political sensitivity of the issue of food subsidies in egypt food subsidies are perceived to be important in promoting political stability and providing some legitimacy to a political system where civil liberties are limited egypt therefore illustrates the dilemmas facing policymakers and others contemplating food subsidy reform in developing countries where there are concerns that reform may spark political unrest this paper argues that even in cases where food subsidy reform is a highly politicized issue there are still a number of pragmatic policy steps that can be taken that meet the twin goals of reforming the system in ways that better target the poor while functioning more efficiently

household willingness to pay equals individual willingness to pay if and only if the household income pools abstract i show household and individual willingness to pay are equal if and only if household choices satisfy income pooling providing a test of whether the individual respondent speaks for the household an assumption implicit in much stated preference practice

the catalytic effect of lending by the international financial institutions for many less developed countries ldcs and countries in transition cits external financing is frequently an effective constraint on economic growth and development capital inflows may be used to overcome shortages of domestic saving thereby permitting higher levels of investment as well as shortages of foreign exchange thereby permitting larger quantities of imports

monetary policy and exchange rate overshooting dornbusch was right after all abstract dornbusch s exchange rate overshooting hypothesis is a central building block in international macroeconomics yet empirical studies of monetary policy have typically found exchange rate effects that are inconsistent with overshooting this puzzling result has been viewed by some researchers as a stylized fact to be reckoned with in policy modelling however many of these studies in particular those using vector autoregressive vars approaches have disregarded the strong contemporaneous interaction between monetary policy and exchange rate movements by placing zero restrictions on them in contrast we achieve identification by imposing a long run neutrality restriction on the real exchange rate thereby allowing for contemporaneous interaction between the interest rate and the exchange rate in a study of four open economies we find that the puzzles disappear in particular a contractionary monetary policy shock has a strong effect on the exchange rate which appreciates on impact the maximum effect occurs within 1 2 quarters and the exchange rate thereafter gradually depreciates to baseline consistent with the dornbusch overshooting hypothesis and with few exceptions consistent with uncovered interest parity uip

crisis and policymaking in latin america the case of chile s 1998 99 electricity crisis summary this article studies the effect of sectoral crises on policy reform by emphasizing the conflictive incentives generated by public demands for a solution on the one hand the crisis provides the opportunity for bypassing veto points for technical innovation on the other hand if simultaneous with increasing electoral competition it reduces the time horizons of policymakers and their propensity to adopt reforms of uncertain effects for them our research traces these on the chilean 1998 99 electricity crisis and assesses their impact on policy change through a comparative analysis of reform contents this article shows how electoral effects prevailed in the context of upcoming competitive elections suggesting the importance of introducing electoral competition in the study of crises effects on policymaking in the region our research strategy for tracing incentives and opportunities generated by crises can travel to other cases to further our understanding of crises effects on policymaking

fiscal restraint and the political economy of emu while the principle of delegation has become well established on the national level for monetary policy fiscal policies remain in the hands of policy makers depending on rent seeking interest groups we argue that the maastricht treaty provides a unique international commitment that enables governments to follow restrictive fiscal policies by attributing their negative side effects to europe and to implement austerity measures despite rising unemployment or a decline in growth hence the popularity of the european idea is instrumented to enforce fiscal discipline the paper outlines the political economy framework and presents new econometric evidence

success and failure of reform insights from the transition of agriculture this paper analyzes the linkages between the reform strategies in transition countries and economic performance the authors focus on agriculture because of the sharpness of the policy changes fundamental differences among countries and relative simplicity of agricultural relationships the authors document post reform performance in the transition countries of asia and europe the authors show how a pricing reform and subsidy reductions b land rights reform and policies that affect farm restructuring and c the presence institutions that facilitate exchange either markets or market substitutes affect output and productivity the paper ends with general lessons on reforms and transition

how much do distortions affect growth abstract this paper presents a simple endogenous growth model with two types of capital which can display sizeable long run growth effects of distortionary policies the model applies to many different types of distortions of relative prices common in developing countries such as differential taxes and tariffs black market exchange rates and price controls the model shows that a subsidy to one type of capital financed by a tax on another capital good lowers growth a measure of the variance of relative prices of investment goods across sectors has a negative and statistically significant effect on growth

economic reform and dynamic political constraints in this paper we examine the impact of political constraints on economic reform plans with special reference to the transition from centrally planned to market economies we analyse the problem of an agenda setting reform minded government facing a bureaucracy or industrial sector for which allocative efficiency requires redundancies and an increase in work intensity the government also tries to minimize the rents conceded to its heterogeneous workforce we examine two types of political constraints unanimity rule and majority rule both in a one period and a two period horizon the main results are the following first of all we show how adverse selection and time consistency may generate the widely observed feature of gradualism as an ingredient of an optimal reform second under a majority rule it is shown to be possible for the government to obtain a majority vote for a reform scheme that intertemporally hurts majority interests indeed the government can improve rent extraction through the strategic use of the threat of future proposals the group which expects to be in the minority tomorrow may accept concessions while its votes can be used to extract rents from another group these results suggest that in a dynamic context democratic constraints should not be overestimated as an obstacle against efficiency enhancing economic reforms the results of this paper may throw some light on the political economy of current reforms in eastern europe governments and political decision makers in general always face political constraints when elaborating reform proposals they know that the need to overcome potential opposition from various groups of the population constrains proposals for change political constraints vary depending on the specific institutional structure of society and are clearly different under a military dictatorship than under a parliamentary democracy the role of political constraints seems particularly important in eastern europe today where new democratic governments face the huge task of achieving the transition to a market economy while the introduction of democracy may have removed some important obstacles to economic change namely the veto power of a powerful nomenclatura under communist one party rule fears are expressed that it could potentially jeopardize economic reforms which may during the transition period hurt a majority of the population what can economic theory tell us about optimal economic reform under political constraints this paper starts addressing this ambitious question by looking at structural reform focusing on a restructuring of economic sectors which requires massive redundancies and a significant rise in labour productivity our model illustrates the case of planning

elasticities of demand and willingness to pay for environmental services in sweden are environmental services luxuriesor necessities are low income groupsrelatively more willing to pay forenvironmental improvements than high incomegroups the discussion on the shape of theenvironmental kuznets curve and environmentaljustice call for analyses that approach thesequestions following a survey based approachfor modelling the demand for public goods thispaper provides estimates of income and priceelasticities of demand for reduced marineeutrophication effects in the case of thebaltic sea using data from five swedishcontingent valuation studies point estimatesindicate that reduced marine eutrophicationeffects can be classified as a necessity and anordinary and price elastic service confidenceintervals show however that the classificationas a necessity is not statisticallysignificant income elasticities of willingnessto pay not to be confused with incomeelasticities of demand are estimated for abroad range of environmental services insweden a basic finding is that income tends toinfluence willingness to pay positively andsignificantly the elasticity estimates are inmost cases greater than zero but less thanunity indicating that the benefits ofenvironmental improvements tend to beregressively distributed in a cost benefitanalysis of a project suggesting environmentalimprovements distributional concerns thereforecall for an introduction of weights or at leasta sensitivity analysis of how weighting wouldchange decisions about the project s socialprofitability

income inequality and willingness to pay for environmental public goods we study how the distribution of income among members of society and income inequality in particular affects social willingness to pay wtp for environmental public goods we find that social wtp for environmental goods decreases increases with income inequality if and only if environmental goods and manufactured goods are substitutes complements we derive adjustment factors for benefit transfer to control for differences in income distributions between a study site and a policy site for illustration we quantify how social wtp for environmental public goods depends on the respective income distributions for empirical case studies in sweden and the world at large we find that the adjustment for income inequality can be substantial

gradualism versus big bang speed and sustainability of reforms a beneficial reform may be blocked by a majority if it is implemented by a big bang but the same reform may succeed with an optimally designed gradualist approach a gradualist approach can sometimes split opposition force and is in this sense more politically sustainable on the other hand if both approaches are politically preferred to no reform a big bang is often preferred to gradualism in terms of both political support as well as economic efficiency

understanding the role of leadership in economic policy reform abstract a demand for coherent policy leadership characterized by its commitment to advance a consistent set of policy principles arises from the various sources of governance failure that account for the observed unevenness in implementing the washington consensus this paper examines how a conspiratorial network established itself as a collective source of such leadership in new zealand by interacting in a way which developed a high level of mutual trust and by penetrating and reconstituting a fragmented structure of insulated policy networks

public good valuation and intra family allocation i derive values of marginal changes in a public good for two person households measured alternatively by household member i s willingness to pay wtp for the good on behalf of the household wtp i h or by the sum of individual wtp values across family members wtp c households are assumed to allocate their resources in efficient nash bargains over private and common household goods wtp i h is then defined by trade offs between the public good and the household good and wtp c by trade offs of between the public good and private goods wtp i h is found to be higher lower than wtp c when member i has a relatively high low marginal valuation of the public good but tends on average to equal wtp c as a consequence individuals tend to represent households correctly on average when questioned about the household s wtp for a public good even when they are purely selfish and answer truthfully adding all members wtp answers on behalf of the household then leads to double counting pure and paternalistic altruism the latter attached to consumption of the public good move each member s wtp on behalf of the household closer to the true sum of individual wtp but only paternalistic altruism raises this sum

the relationship between the income elasticities of demand and willingness to pay abstract the relationship between income and willingness to pay for collectively provided public environmental goods is investigated we show that while the income elasticity of willingness to pay and the ordinary income elasticity of demand are related knowledge of one is insufficient to determine the magnitude or even the sign of the other the income elasticity of willingness to pay is influenced by additional factors which are generally unobservable examples are provided to illustrate the degree to which the two income elasticities may diverge our results indicate that even when goods are demand luxuries they may or may not have income elasticities of willingness to pay which are greater than one

social democracy and market reform in australia and new zealand social democratic governments in australia and new zealand adopted policies of radical free market reform including financial deregulation privatisation and public sector reform in the 1980s because of the absence of institutional obstacles to government action reform was faster and more comprehensive in new zealand than in australia the new zealand reforms were associated with increasing inequality and generally poor economic outcomes there is nothing in the new zealand experience to support the view that radical free market economic policies are consistent with social democratic welfare policies or with social democratic values of concern for the disadvantaged the australian reforms were less radical and were accompanied by some refurbishment of the welfare state economic performance did not improve as anticipated by advocates of reform but was considerably better than that of new zealand

capital accumulation unemployment and self fulfilling failure of economic reform abstract i consider fiscal reform and the consequences of expectations about reform cancellation the reform implies reduced taxes and the laying off of employees in an inefficient public sector if the resulting unemployment level declines sufficiently fast the reform is completed on the other hand if high unemployment levels prevail for too long the reform is cancelled cancellation affects the return on capital negatively hence expectations about cancellation will depress capital accumulation and increase the level of unemployment as a result multiple rational expectation equilibria may arise where expectations about cancellation prove self fulfilling the modelling framework is leontief technology in combination with ramsey optimization that exhibits simple and attractive algebra