the long run effects of income taxation under endogenous technical progress abstract this study examines the long run effects of income taxation by using a perfect foresight optimizing model unlike the existing literature we assume that technical progress is endogenously evolved under this assumption income taxation will affect not only capital accumulation but also inventive activity of private agents we demonstrate that a rise in income tax could increase the level of income in the long run

government purchases and real interest rates this paper examines the dynamic impact of government purchases in a simple general equilibrium model with both durable and nondurable consumer goods as well as productive capital the model generates perhaps surprising results in particular increases in government purchases are shown to cause reductions in real interest rates the model thus provides a possible explanation for the observed behavior of real interest rates around wars copyright 1987 by university of chicago press

marketed surplus under risk do peasants agree with sandmo using a newly defined notion of aversion to income risk the behavior of the marketed surplus producer under price risk is characterized unlike the familiar case first examined by sandmo output depends on both ordinal preferences for goods and on risk attitudes conditions are found that yield an output level under risk that is smaller than under certainty if these conditions do not hold both risk and risk aversion may have a positive effect on output implications for econometric studies of risk attitudes are considered and illustrated with an example finally we examine the effect of uncertainty on the peasant s long run equilibrium

food preferences and nutrition in rural bangladesh t he dietary choice of households near subsistence levels of nutrient intake is one of obvious policy importance in many countries such as bangladesh national goals are set in terms of nutritional intake and there is heavy intervention in the markets for foods however little is known about the manner in which food preferences vary with food expenditure and nutrient intake the design of efficient programs to aid nutritionally deficient households in attaining minimal levels of nutrient intake requires information on all ownand cross price elasticities for both target and non target groups the net effect of a food price subsidy on the consumption of food nutrients cannot be predicted without knowledge of the complete elasticity matrix results presented below demonstrate that substitution effects can be so strong that the subsidization of certain foods quite often reduces nutrient consumption in this study demand equations for nine foods which allow for extremely flexible consumer price response are estimated from the individual budgets of 5 750 rural bangladeshi households estimation at the household level is preferred because it more readily permits the incorporation of household composition variables into the demand analysis such as household size occupation and employment status that are typically lost in aggregation there is also a greater range and variation in expenditure levels than found in grouped data this is of particular importance in the study of nutritional well being as it is the poorest households which are of special interest moreover the household sample provides sufficient degrees of freedom to estimate a simple varying parameter model which requires the estimation of 270 parameters previous econometric analysis of income class specific dietary choice has been limited and not altogether satisfactory pinstrup anderson de londono and hoover 1976 estimated complete sets of price elasticities for different income strata using frisch s scheme in order to study the impact of changes in relative prices on nutrient consumption their results are suspect because of the assumption of want independence necessary for this methodology to be valid alderman and timmer 1980 who were also concerned with studying the relationship between food price policy and nutrient intake by income classes econometrically estimated separate price coefficients for each income group by including slope dummy variables in their demand equations for rice and cassava in indonesia the inclusion of these dummy variables revealed surprisingly large differences in compensated price response across income groups although their results support the notion that poorer households respond differently to prices than the rich the limitations of their data constrained them to consider only two foods and to specify changes in price response which are discontinuous with respect to income i the formulation and estimation of the food demand equations is discussed in section ii below section iii presents the results of the estimation and discusses the nutritional implications of movements in relative food prices and other exogenous variables section iv summarizes our findings

commodity price instability and economic goal attainment in developing countries abstract this paper reviews the theoretical and empirical micro and macro foundations for the frequent claims that instabilities in international commodity markets have deleterious effects on goal attainment in primary commodity exporting developing countries this review leads to the conclusion that the available evidence does not support these claims the paper concludes with speculation on why such claims are so strong despite the lack of supporting evidence perhaps it is because of measurement problems and perhaps because of small but articulate groups with vested interests in overstating the problem

marketed surpluses of agricultural households in sierra leone an agricultural household model is used with household level data from sierra leone to estimate elasticities of marketed surplus for several outputs and for labor with respect to price and nonprice variables positive own price elasticities are found with magnitudes considerably above own price output elasticities changes in household characteristics and production technology also affect marketed surpluses but not always in anticipated directions elasticities are reported for households when grouped by their total expenditure not just for the sample mean the differences are important showing that low expenditure households respond as much as high expenditure households

anticipated foreign military threat arms accumulation and the current account in a small open economy this paper examines the effects of an anticipated foreign military threat on consumption the home weapons stock and net foreign asset position in a small open economy if the utility function is separable between butter and guns the economy decreases both butter and guns when the news arrives accumulates foreign assets prior to the foreign threat realization and increases guns as the foreign threat realizes if the utility function is nonseparable between butter and guns the economy may have two dynamic responses the first is similar to the separable case except that consumption exhibits a discrete jump when the foreign threat realizes the second is that the economy increases both butter and guns on impact decumulates foreign assets prior to the foreign threat implementation but either increases or decreases guns as the foreign threat realizes

the impact of military burden on long run growth and welfare abstract this paper presents an endogenous growth model to examine how a government s resource allocation between the defense and non defense sectors will govern both economic growth and social welfare we demonstrate that there exists an optimal defense expenditure share that maximizes the economic growth rate but this rate is smaller than the welfare maximizing share this result can be viewed as a possible vehicle to explain why in many developing countries arms limitation and disarmament negotiations usually have low performance even failing

adjustment costs durables and aggregate consumption abstract previous tests of the permanent income hypothesis pih have focused on either non durables or durables expenditures in isolation this paper studies consumer purchases of non durables and durables as the outcome of a single optimization problem it is shown that with non separability in utility the presence of adjustment costs of changing durables stocks may affect the time series properties of both components of expenditure an econometric test of the pih based on the model developed in the paper is both more efficient and less prone to bias than those in some previous studies however this test confirms earlier rejections of the pih in aggregate quarterly data

government spending and private consumption this paper investigates the macroeconomic effects of anticipations about future fiscal expenditures within a simple perfect foresight general equilibrium model this paper extends s djajic 1987 by investigating an anticipated permanent increase in government spending an anticipated permanent increase may temporarily stimulate capital accumulation the questions of whether anticipated or unanticipated changes in government spending have a larger effect on capital accumulation and output is related to the questions of whether government spending is initially above or below the optimal level

farm size land yields and the agricultural production function an analysis for fifteen developing countries abstract the paper analyzes the relationship between factor inputs land yields and labor productivity for farms of different size on the basis of fao farm management data for 15 developing countries for all but three countries a strong negative correlation is found between farm size on the one side and factor inputs and yields per hectare on the other the fitting of unconstrained production functions to the above data suggests that in only few cases the decline in yields for increasing farm size can be attributed to decreasing returns to scale the higher yields observed in small farms are mainly to be ascribed to higher factor inputs and to a more intensive use of land therefore where conspicuous labor surpluses exist the superiority of small farming provides solid arguments in favor of land redistribution such an agrarian reform would determine higher output higher labor absorption and a more equitable income distribution thus contributing in a decisive manner to the alleviation of rural poverty the paper also provides estimates of cross sectional production functions for the 15 countries analyzed empirical relations are found between the output elasticities of land labor and intermediate inputs and physical indicators of their scarcity the paper concludes by proposing a simple method for deriving a long term production function for agriculture

access to capital and its impact on agrarian structure and productivity in kenya access to capital and its distribution across agents can profoundly shape the structure and performance of an agrarian market economy it is conceptually useful to distinguish between ex ante and ex post capital access ex ante capital access denotes the ability of agents to finance production costs e g labor and purchased inputs costs which must be paid ex ante that is prior to the actual realization of production ex post capital access that is access to capital after the realization of the production process is of particular importance as an insurance substitute in low income agrarian economies where contingency markets are imperfect buoyant ex post capital access would permit an individual to stabilize consumption year to year even as production fluctuates annually a number of theoretical models have ex

defense spending cutbacks and real interest rates in the neoclassical one sector and two sector models abstract this paper uses the neoclassical one sector and two sector models to examine the behavior of real interest rates in response to cutbacks on defense spending on capital goods and army personnel it is demonstrated that while a permanent decline in defense spending on capital goods and military personnel leaves the term structure unaffected in the one sector model the two sector model predicts that the short and medium term real interest rates rise to give a downward sloping yield curve when the capital goods producing sector is relatively labor intensive

government spending endogenous labor and capital accumulation following turnovsky and fisher 1995 journal of economic dynamics and control 19 747 786 we reexamine the dynamic responses of the capital stock to an unanticipated temporary increase in government consumption and infrastructure expenditures the key factors determining capital accumulation are endogenous labor the duration of policy expansion and the relationship between private decisions and the composition of public expenditure given that private decisions and public consumption are edgeworth independent if employment is variable investment increases with the duration of fiscal expansion following a temporary public infrastructure expansion there always exists the possibility of a decrease in investment before the fiscal reversion under fixed employment however a temporary public infrastructure expansion under variable employment leads to a likely increase in investment before the fiscal reversion

a random coefficients logit brand choice model applied to panel data a random coefficients logit model that allows for unobserved heterogeneity in brand preferences and in the responses to marketing variables is empirically investigated using household level panel data the unknown underlying distribution of unobserved heterogeneity is approximated by a discrete distribution the results reveal that there is significant unobserved heterogeneity across households and that ignoring its effects results in a downward bias in the parameter estimates of the marketing variables it is therefore important to account for heterogeneity in both preferences and responses in the absence of any a priori knowledge about the nature of heterogeneity across households

changing food prices and rural welfare a nonparametric examination of the cote d ivoire changes in and absolute levels of agricultural pricing and food production may affect consumer food prices producer incentives income distribution and government revenue the nature of these relationships and effects are of especial policy concern in developing countries nonparametric estimation techniques are applied to 1985 living standards household survey data of the cote divoire to estimate the impact of a food price change on income distribution this study examines how food prices are related to agricultural income across rural income in the country in examining a different country considering a wider variety of crops estimating engel curves and applying confidence bands the analysis extends work of a s deaton analysis indicates that while food grown for home consumption is important net food sales and a percentage of total expenditure seem inconsequential at any level of welfare agricultural households grow crops to meet their consumption needs and sell the surplus only when harvests are especially bountiful income elasticities with respect to prices are therefore small these findings suggest that no simple set of small price changes will significantly increase the marketed surplus of food and that structural adjustment policies may be pursued without concern for devastating poor households research is needed into ways of increasing food production through methods other than price changes results also indicate that price increases do not necessarily benefit only large well off farms and that a wide range of issues may be considered with nonparametric estimation techniques

cash crop production food price volatility and rural market integration in the third world large farmers in the third world often devote to cash crops a larger share of their land than do small farmers this paper suggests a possible explanation even in the presence of food markets third world farmers food security is best assured by food self sufficiency a model of crop portfolio choice under multivariate risk is used to show that reasonable assumptions regarding risk and preferences reproduce the observed pattern simulations further indicate that food market integration reduces the need for food self sufficiency policy implications are drawn regarding domestic trade liberalization and agricultural technology

market failure and control of labour power towards an explanation of structure and change in indian agriculture part 1 1 although existing approaches do on occasion shed light on certain specific aspects of indian agriculture in general they run into problems of methodology or content or more frequently both in particular it is misleading to treat indian agri culture in peasant economy no markets or neoclassical perfect market terms and problematic to view it as semi feudal markets subordinate to extra economic factors 2 analysis of the relationships between farm size land productivity sharecropping and mechanisation suggest the need for an integrated model which emphasises both the unemployment and poverty of poor peasants and the problems of supervision and control of wage labour and tenants 3 proper appreciation of the interlinked role of these factors can help to explain the system s inability to combine the abundant labour of the poor with resources owned largely by the rich it can also go on to explain institutional responses like sharecropping as partial solutions to the problem of intensifying labour use and technological ones such as mechanisation as a means of delinking large farm growth from the need to intensify labour use 4 the tensions and choices between these responses underlie both the problem of stagnation and the phenomenon of switches from sharecropping to mechanisation 5 for associated reasons more rapid growth in indian agriculture is unlikely without major institutional changes to create much new employment and is likely to be more capital intensive than is usually assumed

inverse productivity or inverse efficiency evidence from mexico abstractusing a unique panel data set from rural mexico we find strong evidence of a negative relationship between farm size and both productivity and technical efficiency large farms not only have a lower value of output per hectare than small farms they also produce further from the efficiency frontier our findings suggest that in spite of the ongoing transformation of agricultural supply chains and economists recommendations for small farmers to exit crop production there may be sustained advantages for smallholder farms our analysis offers new insights into inverse farm size relationship the productivity efficiency relationship and the use of stochastic frontier techniques

supply shocks and the interest rate supply shocks and the interest rate i introduction a new approach to business cycles that stresses intertemporal substitution possibilities and market clearing equilibria has recently gained prominence key models that use this new classical framework include those of lucas 1972 barro 1976 1981b 1987a 1987g kydland and prescott 1980 1982 long and plosser 1983 and king and plosser 1984 although these models share the basic similarity of intertemporal maximization and market clearing they differ about which factors cause business cycle fluctuations however most of them admit a role for supply shocks such as opec oil price shocks and agricultural harvest failures most of the empirical work using the market clearing approach concentrates on quantities such as real gnp and ignores the key price variable of the intertemporal substitutional approach the real interest rate exceptions are the papers by benjamin and kochin 1984 and barro 1987a who use eighteenth and nineteenth century data to examine the effect of government spending on the nominal interest rate this paper extends previous work by studying not only the effects of government spending on the interest rate but also the effects of supply shocks on the interest rate the classic supply shock agricultural harvests is used indeed to the best of our knowledge this is the first paper to investigate how agricultural supply shocks affect the interest rate and as such it provides additional evidence about the factors that influence interest rates although the theory behind this work is cast in the framework of the equilibrium approach keynesian models also concur with the theoretical prediction that supply shocks raise the real interest rate thus this empirical investigation of the impact of harvests on the interest rate will command attention from keynesian as well as new classical macroeconomists section ii reviewers the theory used to motivate the work the third section discusses the data the fourth section presents the empirical results while the last section contains conclusions ii theory the equilibrium approach to macroeconomics emphasizes the role played by intertemporal optimization consumers maximize their intertemporal utility functions while firms maximize their profits as a result an intertemporal relative price the ex ante real interest rate emerges as a crucial variable consider the effect on the ex ante real interest rate from a temporary adverse supply shock such as a harvest failure in an agricultural closed economy consumers faced with a temporary shortfall in income and trying to smooth their consumption generally try to borrow in order to maintain their usual level of consumption thus the ex ante real interest rate increases much the same argument applies to government spending a temporary increase in government spending reduces the resources currently available to the private sector then as in the case of a temporary supply shock the increased demand for borrowing to smooth the reduction in disposable income leads to a higher interest rate an open economy is different when faced with a temporary reduction in resources from either an adverse supply shock or a temporary increase in government spending the private sector in an open economy is able to borrow from abroad by running a balance of trade deficit if the country in question is a small part of the world economy the increased borrowing does not affect the world ex ante real interest rate so the effect on the country s ex ante real interest rate is nil returning to the case of a closed economy supply shocks and changes in government spending affect the ex ante real interest rate only if they are temporary if they were permanent consumers would not have the same incentive to borrow so the interest rate would tend to be constant

effects of an anticipated expansion in international public goods on public capital accumulation abstract this paper presents a generic model to include public capital accumulation and the services of international public goods provided by a neighbor country it examines the long run and short run responses of private and public capital accumulation in the home country to an anticipated increase in international public goods it is found that the home economy in effect cuts its public capital stock but keeps an unchanged private capital stock in the long run when a neighbor commits itself to expanding the stock of public goods in the future the key factor determining the short run responses of the home country is the extent to which it will match its government spending with a neighbor country s policy which is associated with the relative difference between the marginal utility of consumption and that of home public capital affected by an increase in international public goods

access to capital and agrarian production organisation there are two problems both universal that entrepreneurs in any economy must contend with firstly an agent generally has access only to a limited amount of working capital secondly workers hired by an agent are subject to moral hazard and this necessitates their supervision this paper models for an agrarian economy the constraints imposed on entrepreneurs activities by these two problems and endogenously determines the various organisational forms of production as well as the allocation of resources that will obtain with a simple model we endeavour to explain a diverse set of empirical observations pertaining to the less developed countries in terms of the general processes that determine the distribution of income among the various agents and the hierarchical relationships that develop among them agricultural production typically involves a period of several months between the time the inputs are purchased and the time the output is marketed access to working capital and hence to the credit market thus plays an important role in a farmer s production decisions the distribution of access to credit in turn tends to be an important determinant of income distribution in poor agrarian economies credit is invariably rationed according to the ability to offer collateral the amount of working capital a farmer can mobilise therefore depends on the amount of land he owns which is often a good proxy for his overall wealth and thus his ability to offer collateral further since hired hands have a propensity to shirk they need to be supervised and therefore the

economic behavior under temporal uncertainty a considerable amount of research has focused on the effects of uncertainty on economic behavior in the absence of complete risk markets private risk bearing is widely believed to influence economic decisions arrow 1 sandmo 23 chavas 4 dalal 6 and others have investigated the role of uncertainty in resource allocation for example sandmo 23 has proposed a theory of the firm under risk he showed how risk and risk aversion can have a negative effect on production decisions

a dynamic model of capital and arms accumulation how does competitive arms accumulation affect investment and capital accumulation in a dynamic optimization framework including both investment and military spending we find that when the utility function is separable between consumption and the weapon stocks an unanticipated rise in current military threat reduces current investment and an anticipated rise in future military threat stimulates current investment but when the utility function is nonseparable between consumption and the weapon stocks a current military threat may not decrease the short run investment in the long run capital accumulation is independent of the military conflicts among countries regardless of the form of the utility function

does supervision matter some hypothesis tests using indian farm level data abstract a model is developed and estimated to test for heterogeneity of family and hired labor in agricultural production and to estimate the impact of employer supervision on the productivity of hired labor plot level data are used from a rice growing village in semi arid tropical india the hypothesis that family and hired labor are homogeneous inputs was rejected results indicate that family member supervision is required to increase hired labor productivity output loss attributable to operating at reduced supervision intensity was greater than 10 on over 40 of the plots

informing food security decisions in africa empirical analysis and policy dialogue discussions of economic and agricultural development in africa have focused heavily in recent years on structural adjustment i e basic policy changes aimed at allowing international and domestic markets to play a greater role in coordinating national economic activities often these structural adjustments and accompanying policies aimed at improving economic performance have been based on several implicit assumptions about how african food systems operate yet for many countries little empirical information has been available to test these assumptions hence designing policies too often becomes an exercise in planning without facts this paper argues that not only is there a need to base food security and structural adjustment policies more firmly on empirical information but that the process by which the information is obtained is as important as the information itself agricultural economists and other social scientists can and increasingly should design policy research in africa in ways that simultaneously increase effective demand for empirical information as an input into the ongoing policy process and augment african capacity continually to inform policy deliberations we illustrate the payoffs to such an approach by drawing on selected experience in several african countries weber

econometric estimation of producers risk attitudes general methods are proposed for the identification and econometric estimation of the parameters of the distribution of risk attitudes in a producer population the proposed methods also provide the basis for the development of statistical tests of model specification and of behavioral hypotheses econometric risk attitude estimation is shown to be possible under less restrictive conditions than previously believed a moment based version of the general model is applied to indian data and the econometrically estimated risk attitudes are presented and compared to experimental results for a similar group of producers

peasant household behaviour with missing markets some paradoxes explained a model of peasant household behavior under varying degrees of household specific food and labor market failures is constructed to show that these structural features can explain several well known patterns of peasant response which have often been attributed to peculiar motives presumed specific to peasants the model explains sluggish response to cash crops prices and high instability in perceived food and labor scarcities the key role of manufactured consumer goods prices in stimulating peasants effort in cash crops production the effectiveness of taxation as opposed to incentives in stimulating cash crops production and the key role of technological change in food production to enhance cash crop production results are obtained analytically in the case of one market failure and by numerical simulation with more than one

the relation between farm size and farm productivity the role of family labor supervision and credit constraints abstract the paper shows that if the performance of hired farmhands is affected by supervision from family members and if the availability of credit is dependent on the amount of land owned then a systematic positive or negative relationship between per acre yields and farm size will prevail a model with no supervision effects on labor productivity would predict that yields are unaffected by farm size the paper also investigates the relation between land utilization and owned holding size when land rental possibilities are limited results are shown to be compatible with various observed patterns in ldcs

disaggregating food consumption parameters designing targeted nutritional interventions abstract this article is concerned with a new nutritional intervention strategy which is based on the belief that malnourished people eat different types of food to the well nourished the calculation of disaggregated food consumption parameters can identify inferior food commodities and the subsidization of these commodities will target intervention to those most in need the effectiveness of this policy depends on the understanding of its theoretical basis the author introduces the policy maker to this by reviewing the theoretical basis for consumption analysis and then several key studies

the dynamic effects of tax policies in a small open economy we develop an intertemporal optimizing model of a small open economy with both durable and nondurable consumption to address the implications of alternative tax policies an increase in lump sum taxes reduces the steady state level of consumption and improves the stock of foreign bonds consistent with empirical evidence durable consumption exhibits initial excess volatility though an increase in the tax on durables increases the demand for nondurables and improves the bond holdings in the steady state an increase in the tax on nondurables has insignificant effects on the stock of foreign bonds and the consumption of durables using quarterly data from the uk and estimating generalized impulse response functions we find empirical support we also calibrate the welfare implications of different tax policies

food poverty profile applied to kenyan smallholders that can be used to test conflicting hypotheses this paper analyzes data from the first kenyan integrated rural survey irs i household expenditure data collected by the central bureau of statistics to estimate the magnitude distribution of and factors associated with food poverty among kenyan small farmers the analysis uses a new methodology with three improvements over previous empirical studies 1 food poverty is estimated using an additively decomposable measure that allows poverty to be distributed among population subgroups 2 the food poverty line is based on observed dietary preferences in response to regional food prices and 3 the food poverty measure is adjusted to use regional food poverty lines without sacrificing its theoretical properties or decomposability this paper consists of two main parts section ii reviews the methodology underlying the setting of the regional food poverty line on the basis of a detailed integrated rural survey of kenyan smallholders the cost of food consumption corresponding to the recommended dietary allowance rda of calories is computed since this food poverty line was calculated on the basis of the observed diet consumed it presumably reflects the prevailing regional food preferences and prices faced by households consuming around the calorie rda level the next part of section ii presents a food poverty measure that in addition to satisfying the major fundamental properties of such measuresis decomposable and allows regional food poverty deprivation to be estimated

on the costs of food price fluctuations in low income countries abstract conventional welfare measures of the costs of food price fluctuations in low income countries are extended to allow for both economic growth and food security effects the analysis reveals that growth and food security effects may dominate more conventional welfare costs of food price fluctuations although estimating the empirical magnitude of the effects is hampered by the lack of consensus on the extent to which food price fluctuations actually reduce economic growth and food security even if the welfare costs of food price fluctuations are high there are many challenges to the design and successful implementation of price stabilization schemes

should african rural development strategies depend on smallholder farms an exploration of the inverse productivity hypothesis in africa most development strategies include efforts to improve the productivity of staple crops grown on smallholder farms an underlying premise is that small farms are productive in the african context and that smallholders do not forgo economies of scale a premise supported by the often observed phenomenon that staple cereal yields decline as the scale of production increases this paper explores a research design conundrum that encourages researchers who study the relationship between productivity and scale to use surveys with a narrow geographic reach when policy would be better served with studies based on wide and heterogeneous settings using a model of endogenous technology choice the authors explore the relationship between maize yields and scale using alternative data since rich descriptions of the decision environments that farmers face are needed to identify the applied technologies that generate the data improvements in the location specificity of the data should reduce the likelihood of identification errors and biased estimates however the analysis finds that the inverse productivity hypothesis holds up well across a broad platform of data despite obvious shortcomings with some components it also finds surprising consistency in the estimated scale elasticities

on price risk and the inverse farm size productivity relationship abstract the oft observed inverse relationship between farm size and productivity has elicited several explanations having important policy and theoretical implications using advances in the analysis of price risk effects on producer behavior and a simple two period model of an agricultural household that both produces and consumes under price uncertainty at the time labor allocation decisions are made this paper demonstrates analytically that a non degenerate land distribution and price risk can together produce an inverse relationship even absent any of the more common explanations empirical evidence from madagascar confirms the plausibility of this intuitive explanation for the phenomenon

economic efficiency in polish peasant farming an international perspective one decade following the market transition in poland the agricultural sector still exhibits low productivity policy makers often describe the sector as fragmented and inefficient to understand why small scale farming in poland is inefficient despite longstanding secure property rights a survey of economic efficiency in southern agriculture was conducted and compared with limited studies of efficiency in poland the most important issues particularly related to farm size and efficiency are price risk uncertainty and low rural development comparative studies across regions with varying institutional arrangements and economic organization are powerful but must be made carefully and critically

government purchases and real interest rates with endogenous time preference abstract the observation of low real interest rates during periods of high temporary government purchases such as wars can be reconciled with the neoclassical growth model extended to allow for endogenous time preference temporary increases in government purchases lead to a fall in the instantaneous rate of time preference this may result in rising investment and falling real interest rates along an adjustment path

government spending interest rates and capital accumulation in a two sector model this paper investigates dynamic impacts of a temporary fiscal expansion in a two sector growth model if the expansion falls on consumption investment commodities capital accumulation can be either promoted or reduced and the short term interest rate unambigu ously rises if the expansion falls on consumption commodities capital accumulation is crowded out and the short term interest rate declines during the period of the fiscal expan sion it is also shown that fiscal spending on the consumption commodity can move the short and long term interest rates in opposite directions jel classification e43 e62 041

rice prices and income distribution in thailand a non parametric analysis rice is a staple crop in thailand significantly entering both household production and consumption this paper examines the effect of rice prices on the distribution of real income across households taking into account household characteristics and geographical location the data set is a large scale survey of 11 893 households simple nonparametric techniques for regression and density estimation are used these methods depend on few assumptions and generate flexible graphical results that are directly informative about the problem at hand the main results are that higher rice prices should benefit all rural households but the largest benefits accrue to rural households in the middle of the income distribution copyright 1989 by royal economic society

farmers welfare and changing food prices nonparametric evidence from rice in madagascar this paper uses nonparametric density estimation and kernel smoothing techniques to examine the instantaneous distributional implications of rice price changes in madagascar while many farmers do not participate in product markets as either buyers or sellers and net sales or marketable surplus are fairly small for many others the roughly one third of rice farmers who fall below the poverty line face significant negative first order welfare effects from increases in the mean or variance of rice prices conversely the first order gains from rice price increases are highly concentrated among the largest rice farmers and particular regions in madagascar

is there curvature in the slutsky matrix d o the poor substitute among commodities more flexibly than the rich when relative prices change even when compensated for the income effects of the price changes is it necessary to add a third dimension to the slutsky substitution matrix to identify household income in short do the terms of the slutsky elasticity matrix curve smoothly from poor households to rich households in such a way that equation 1 is meaningful

shadow wages allocative inefficiency and labor supply in smallholder agriculture this article introduces a method for estimating structural labor supply models in the presence of unobservable wages and deviations of households marginal revenue product of self employed labor from their shadow wage this method is therefore robust to a wide range of assumptions about labor allocation decisions in the presence of uncertainty market frictions locational preferences etc we illustrate the method using data from rice producers in cote d ivoire these data like previous studies reveal significant systematic differences between shadow wages and the marginal revenue product of family farm labor we demonstrate how one can exploit systematic deviations in the present case related to household characteristics such as the land labor endowment ratio to control for both unobservable wages and prospective allocative inefficiency in labor allocation in structural household labor supply estimation

the new development economics abstract the theory of rural organization based on rational peasants in environments where information is imperfect and costly provides a simple explanation for a wide variety of phenomena in ldcs it provides insights into both why sharecropping is so widespread and why it takes on the particular forms that it does it provides an explanation of the interlinkage of credit and land markets and of cost sharing the paper argues that this theory provides a better explanation of these phenomena than do the competing theories this theory can be viewed as an important application of a more general paradigm the imperfect information paradigm which has been useful in explaining economic phenomena under a wide variety of settings under competition oligopoly and monopoly in labor markets capital markets in insurance markets and product markets and in developed and less developed countries

economic behavior under uncertainty a joint analysis of risk preferences and technology a method is developed to estimate jointly risk preferences and technology under general conditions the approach is illustrated in an application to the analysis of u s corn soybean acreage decisions over time the results provide useful information on the nature of farmers risk preferences and on the influence of price risk and production risk on acreage allocation and farmers welfare copyright 1996 by mit press

are kenyan farmers under utilizing fertilizer implications for input intensification strategies and research abstract it is widely perceived that african farmers are under utilizing inorganic fertilizer however very little long term evidence from farmers fields accounting for variations in agro ecological conditions has been assembled to back this claim or determine the conditions under which it is true using five waves of nationwide household survey data from kenya covering 13 years we estimate the relative and absolute profitability of nitrogen application rates on maize fields and compare these profitability conditions to observed nitrogen use patterns over time in general we find that farmers are consistently and steadily increasing towards risk adjusted economically optimal rates of fertilizer application over time and that in the most agriculturally productive areas farmers application rates on maize sometimes exceed rates that maximize profitability fertilizer use rates may nevertheless be profitably raised in these areas but doing so will require the adoption of complementary inputs and management practices that raise maize response rates to fertilizer application this motivates a more holistic approach to input intensification strategies in the region

the permanent income hypothesis and consumption durability analysis based on japanese panel data the permanent income hypothesis with durability of commodities is tested on a panel of about 2 000 japanese households for several commodity groups under static expectations about real interest rates and for some class of utility functions consumption which is a distributed lag function of current and past expenditure follows a martingale main empirical results are i the durability of commodities usually classified as services is substantial ii the hypothesis applies to about 85 percent of the population consisting of wage earners and iii income changes explain only a small fraction of the movements in expenditure

consumer durables permanent terms of trade shocks and the recent us trade deficits abstract this paper employs an open economy real business cycle model to suggest that part of the 1980s us trade deficits may have been driven by permanent declines in consumer durable import prices we also show that most of the resulting decline in the trade balance is due to wealth effects not substitution effects

can unobserved land quality explain the inverse productivity relationship abstract an inverse relationship between both farm productivity and labor intensity and farm size is a common empirical finding in developing country agriculture the traditional explanation has been imperfect labor markets recently it has been suggested instead that the inverse relationship is a statistical artifact resulting from omitted land quality using a farm level data set from java i investigate whether omitted variable bias can explain the inverse relationship i show that the inverse relationship and accompanying wage responses are inconsistent with a model of neoclassical farm behavior that ignores omitted variable bias instrumental variables techniques yield parameter estimates in which the inverse relationship is eliminated and the estimated wage elasticities are more in line with economic theory further econometric investigation hints that a model of omitted land quality may be a possible source of the inverse relationship these results emphasize the importance of considering the sources of cross sectional variation in estimating microeconomic relationships