growth patterns of the european venture capital industry abstract although the european venture capital industry has become nearly as important as its american counterpart little research has been done to describe its nature and importance this study gives in the first place an overview of the importance of the venture capital industry in the major european countries thereafter we look for funding and investment patterns in the different european countries we hypothesize that there is a difference between countries in which the venture capital industry is just emerging and those where the venture capital industry is since long established the data are mainly but not solely taken from the yearly statistics of the european venture capital association evca and cover the period 1984 1989 the characteristics we look at are 1 the sources of the funds flowing into the industry broken down with respect to investor type and geographical location of the investor and 2 the investments broken down with respect to investment stage using the evca definitions of the different stages geographical location degree of syndication and industrial sector of the investee companies in europe as a whole the most important group of investors are the banks 28 the pension funds 17 and the insurance companies 12 banks dominate the swiss industry 48 corporate investors dominate the german swedish and portuguese industries whereas these are nearly completely absent in denmark 2 ireland 4 and the united kingdom 5 eighty percent of all venture capital funds are raised domestically 7 in another european country and the remaining 13 in a non european country almost half of the european investments 44 are made in the expansion stage management buy outs mbos account for another 36 only 14 is invested in seed or start up companies much less than the 30 in the u s half of the venture capital investments in the united kingdom are buy outs the highest start up investment activity takes place in austria and spain on average more than half 54 of the invested amount in europe is syndicated but only 6 internationally while 10 is invested internationally we also search for similarities and dissimilarities in the characteristics of the sources of funds and of the investments the hypothesis is that a growth pattern can be distinguished determining the maturity of the venture capital industry in a particular country the characteristics that we think would discriminate most among the different industry stages are the importance of government agencies pension funds and insurance companies sources of funds of start up later stages or mbo investments and the percentage of international and syndicated investments cluster analyses show that there is a growth pattern but it is less clear than expected characteristics of mature industries are a bigger size relative to the gross national product of the country the presence of pension funds and insurance companies as investors in the industry the syndication of the deals and the absence of the government as an investor in the 1980s investments in management buy outs are mainly done by the mature industries no pattern can be distinguished for the investments in early or later stages the major implication from this study is the fact that the european venture capital industry cannot be approached as a single undifferentiated industry each country has its own structures institutions and policies which make the venture capital industries in the different countries have unique characteristics moreover the european venture capital industry has different characteristics than the american industry this has to be taken into account when comparing both industries

exchange rates and the fiscal theory of the price level abstract this paper addresses exchange rate determination under a nominal interest peg in a two country cash in advance model under two types of cash in advance constraints if both governments peg the nominal interest rate on domestic bonds there is a continuum of equilibria each consistent with different nominal exchange rates and real resource allocations the well known finding of equilibrium uniqueness under a nominal interest rate peg in a closed economy does not survive in a multi country multi currency setting

monetary policy in a dual currency environment we develop a small open economy general equilibrium model with sticky prices and partial dollarization a situation where both domestic and foreign currencies coexist we derive a tractable representation of the model in terms of domestic inflation and the output gap in which a trade off which depends on the degree of dollarization arises endogenously due to the presence of foreign interest rate shocks we use this framework to show analytically how higher degrees of dollarization induce larger volatilities of the output gap and inflation thus hampering a central bank s effectiveness to stabilize the economy our impulse response functions show that the transmission of such shocks has a positive negative effect on inflation and negative positive effect on the output gap when money aggregates and consumption are complements substitutes

imperfect competition multiple equilibria and unemployment policy this paper takes a simple imperfectly competitive macro model with increasing returns and shows how it can lead to nonexistence or multiplicity of equilibria the consequences for government policy toward unemployment are explored and shown to be very different from the traditional model it is argued that a multiple equilibrium model is an attractive possible explanation of the behavior of u k unemployment in the 1980s copyright 1990 by royal economic society

why voluntary export restraints are voluntary the paper presents an analysis of the effect upon an oligopolistic equilibrium of introducing a voluntary export restraint ver upon an importing firm a ver set at the free trade level of imports is shown to raise the profits of all firms within the industry the result follows as the imposition of a ver upon a free trade nash price competition forces the domestic firm to become an industry price leader the ver raises industry prices by facilitating collusion and lowers consumer welfare pourquoi les restrictions volontaires d 1 exportation sont volontaires ce memoire presente une analyse des effets de l introduction de restrictions volontaires a l exportation rve sur une entreprise qui importe dans un monde en equilibre oligopolistique on montre que l introduction de rve approximant le niveau des importations en regime de libre echange devrait augmenter les profits de toutes les entreprises dans l industrie cela decoule du fait que l imposition de rve sur un univers de concurrence par les prix a la nash en regime de libre echange force l entreprise domestique a devenir le leader en prix l introduction de rve augmente le niveau des prix de l industrie en facilitant la collusion et de ce fait reduit le niveau de bien etre des consomrnateurs

ppp exchange rate rules macroeconomic in stability and learning in order to maintain competitiveness governments in developing economies seem to have pursued purchasing power parity ppp exchange rate rules by adjusting the nominal devaluation rate in response to real exchange rate deviations from an intermediate target this article shows that these rules are likely to induce macroeconomic instability as they generate sunspot driven fluctuations that are in fact learnable by agents in the expectational stability sense it finds that the existence of these learnable sunspots depends among others on open economy features including the degree of openness and the degree of exchange rate pass through to consumer s import prices

do central banks respond to exchange rate movements a structural investigation abstract we estimate a small scale structural general equilibrium model of a small open economy using bayesian methods our main focus is the conduct of monetary policy in australia canada new zealand and the uk we consider generic taylor type rules where the monetary authority reacts in response to output inflation and exchange rate movements we perform posterior odds tests to investigate the hypothesis whether central banks do target exchange rates the main result of this paper is that the central banks of australia and new zealand do not whereas the bank of canada and the bank of england do include the nominal exchange rate in its policy rule this result is robust for various specification of the policy rule we also find that terms of trade movements do not contribute significantly to domestic business cycles

persistent protection in an international exit game abstract this paper examines the strategic behavior of two countries in a duopoly exit game with declining demand in the export market we consider whether countries have a strategic rational to maintain rather than unilaterally or jointly reduce their subsidies conditions under which persistent subsidization is justified from a national perspective are derived by maintaining subsidies one country can gain a strategic advantage by forcing its rival to exit earlier an outcome where only one country applies the subsidy is not attainable free trade is less likely to occur close to the end of the game

hysteresis in a simple model of currency substitution abstract a cash in advance model in which the cost of buying goods with a foreign currency is decreasing in the economy s accumulated experience in transacting in the foreign currency is shown to display hysteresis in money velocity that is a temporary increase in expected inflation can cause a permanent increase in velocity in addition the model implies that the domestic currency does not have to dominate the foreign currency in rate of return to induce agents to stop using the foreign currency finally inflation rates that trigger currency substitution need not be associated with steady states in which the domestic currency disappears from circulation

job creation and job destruction in great britain in the 1980s using data from the workplace industrial relations surveys of 1980 1984 and 1990 the authors investigate processes of job creation and job destruction in britain they find that rates of employment growth job creation and job destruction were higher at the end of the 1980s than at the beginning bothjob creation and job destruction were extremely concentrated about 50 of each was accounted for by just 4 of continuing establishments employment growth was apparently more variable in manufacturing plants than in private service sector workplaces some variables negatively related to employment growth were unionization establishment size establishment age and location in the private manufacturing sector versus private service sector

endogenous currency substitution inflationary finance and welfare in some countries a foreign currency has replaced the domestic one to perform the functions of money this phenomenon is known as currency substitution this paper explores the relationship between currency substitution and inflationary finance in an overlapping generations model in which currency substitution is an endogenous equilibrium outcome the author describes when currency substitution may emerge and shows that it may be a purely expectational phenomenon he uses the model to discuss the welfare effects of inflation and the effects of policies that deal directly with currency substitution cs copyright 1994 by ohio state university press

imperfect competition and pareto improving strategic trade policy abstract this paper addresses the concern that strategic trade policy will inevitably invite retaliation by presenting examples in which tariffs and export taxes subsidies can improve the welfare of importing and exporting nations at the same time we argue that retaliation is less likely in such cases the conditions required for these results depend upon the relative sizes of the markets in the trading countries the number of firms in each and the shape of market demand and cost functions

firms expectations and employment behaviour evidence from a panel of uk manufacturing firms abstract in this paper we investigate the effect of expectations of future sales on employment adjustment we find that uk manufacturing firms sales expectations have a statistically significant effect on their employment behaviour leading to employment being more sluggish to respond when firms expect sales to rise

privatization liberalization wages and employment theory and evidence for the uk most agency based privatization models are of the owner manager relation and ignore the labour market yet in the 1980s there were profound changes in public sector and privatized firms to wages and employment we develop a bargaining model of the manager workforce relation that explains employment and wages when firms are privatized government objectives become more commercial and markets are liberalised using data on 14 uk companies 1972 1988 that were publicly owned in 1972 we find a employment fell following the change to more commercial objectives b wages were only slightly affected by this but fell if the firm lost market power

the founding rate of venture capital firms in three european countries 1970 1990 abstract in this article the sectorial and environmental forces that facilitate or inhibit the creation of venture capital companies are studied in the three european countries where the industry is most developed the united kingdom france and the netherlands the focus is on the start up phase of the industry the period from 1970 1990 the founding of firms can be studied on four different levels entrepreneurial organizational population and macroeconomic in this study a population approach is taken this implies that we do not attempt to explain any single founding but rather the aggregate number of foundings that occur in an industry in a certain period in a certain country according to the organizational ecology theory the population density i e the total number of organizations in a population is the major environmental factor that affects the founding rate through two processes initially when the density is low each founding eases new foundings because the simple prevalence of a form tends to give it legitimacy thereby spurring imitations the training ground for qualified personnel grows and the supporting networks are widened and strengthened the legitimation process does not grow forever once enough organizations of a certain kind exist legitimation attains a ceiling as the number of organizations increases the second process becomes dominant the competition for resources raw material personnel customers capital grows leading to a negative relationship between the density and the founding rate everything else being equal thus the founding rate declines as the number of organizations increases once a threshold is reached the major hypothesis that is tested here is that the population density has an inverted u shaped effect on the founding rate of venture capital organizations in addition the effect that the venture capital firms of the three countries have on each other is studied two populations are said to interact when the populations affect each other s growth rate but the interaction need not be symmetrical the second hypothesis tested in this study is that populations in different countries have a positive effect on each other and not a competitive effect because the legitimating effect does not halt at geographical borders yet the competition for resources capital people deals among geographically different populations is limited in this industry this study is valuable because until now the existing ecological studies focus on long established industries testing the theory in a young industry that emerged only in the seventies in europe has merits in its own right because the technological progress after the second world war has altered the organizational environment tremendously the communication and transportation revolutions may have especially influenced the way in which organizations interact with each other and with the environment the venture capital firms are furthermore special in the way they are organized with the dual structure of management company and investment fund s if the theory holds in this young industry important additional evidence will be given that the theory is truly applicable to populations of all types in any time period and in any society carroll 1988 p 18 finally this study extends the theory by giving evidence on how industries in different countries may interact upon each other we show empirically that the major factor that influences the overall founding rate in each of the three countries is the density of the industry i e the number of organizations that already exist in the industry this confirms the population ecology theory when the density is low adding a new organization to the industry raises the probability of a subsequent founding when the density is high the contrary is true the institutional changes considered here such as the establishment of tax transparent legal entities or state guarantees against losses in the netherlands and the establishment of secondary stock markets do not significantly influence the founding rate in any of the three countries moreover the dutch foundings are positively influenced by the british density and the french foundings by the dutch density the british foundings are on the contrary negatively influenced by the dutch density the competitive effects between the netherlands and the u k are thus more important than initially thought the relationship between the density and the founding rate is the strongest most consistent and most significant relationship found in this study thus the number of organizations that already exist in an industry is very important in explaining the founding of organizations apart from for example the personality of the entrepreneur or from the networks in which he or she is involved this indicates that when trying to explain the founding of organizations the industry structure and more specifically the number of organizations that exist at the moment of the founding cannot be ignored

an integration of trade union models in a sequential bargaining framework this paper aims to embed two popular models of trade union behavior the monopoly model and the efficient bargaining model in a more general framework it does this by analyzing sequential bargaining models where wages are determined before employment and the power of the union in the two stages of the bargain differs as well as finding that the monopoly and efficient bargain models are special cases of this model a new class of models is also discovered this framework is used to analyze the relationship between union pow er and efficiency the empirical analysis of trade unions and the effects of trade union legislation copyright 1987 by royal economic society

the effects of inflation and real wages on employment this paper considers the effects of inflation on employment the absence of index linked loans and the possibility that errors are committed in times of inflation lead to a higher probability of bankruptcy during inflation if firms care about bankruptcy this implies a lower level of employment empirical results confirming this are presented and suggest that higher inflation has substantially contributed to the fall in employment in the united kingdom the authors also demonstrate that a negative real wage elasticity is not robust to changes in specification copyright 1987 by the review of economic studies limited

worldwide macroeconomic stability and monetary policy rules we study the interaction of multiple large economies in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium each economy has a monetary policymaker that attempts to control the economy through the use of a linear nominal interest rate feedback rule we show how the determinacy of worldwide equilibrium depends on the joint behavior of policymakers worldwide we also show how indeterminacy exposes all economies to endogenous volatility even ones where monetary policy may be judged appropriate from a closed economy perspective we construct and discuss two quantitative cases in the 1970s worldwide equilibrium was characterized by a two dimensional indeterminacy despite u s adherence to a version of the taylor principle in the last 15 years worldwide equilibrium was still characterized by a one dimensional indeterminacy leaving all economies exposed to endogenous volatility our analysis provides a rationale for a type of international policy coordination and the gains to coordination in the sense of avoiding indeterminacy may be large

efficient wage bargaining as a repeated game this paper builds a bridge between the two existing approaches for wage and employment determination in a unionized market the monopoly union model and the efficient bargaining model both fail to capture the dynamic aspects of wage bargaining when the repeated nature of the wage bargaining process is considered the equilibria are neither as inefficient as the monopoly union model predicts nor as fully efficient rather the two models can be regarded as particular cases with certain discount rates we apply our model to issues such as the endgame interpretation of the u s steel industry wage concessions and featherbedding

on pareto improving voluntary export restraints abstract this paper develops the argument that binding voluntary export restraints vers may raise the profits of all firms and the welfare of all trading partners this possibility is shown to arise in a model of cournot oligopoly and is consistent with the theory of the second best vers benefit unconstrained firms if the favorable effect due to the increase in domestic import price outweighs the adverse effect due to a loss in market share then vers will also benefit constrained firms vers will improve the importing country s welfare if they raise the profits of domestic firms more than they reduce domestic consumer surplus the paper synthesizes these findings and derives conditions for vers to be pareto improving

determinants of required return in venture capital investments a five country study abstract using two complementary theoretical perspectives we develop hypotheses regarding the determinants of the return required by venture capitalists and test them on a sample of over 200 venture capital companies vccs located in five countries consistent with resource based theory we find that early stage specialists require a significantly higher return than other vccs when investing in later stage ventures consistent with financial theory we find that acquisition buyout specialists require a significantly lower return than other vccs when investing in expansion companies furthermore in comparison to specialists highly stage diversified vccs require a significantly higher return for early stage investments independent vccs require a higher rate of return than captive or public vccs in general higher required returns are associated with vccs who provide more intensity of involvement have shorter expected holding period of the investment and being located in the us or uk in comparison to those in france belgium and the netherlands

unemployment in britain male unemployment in britain has risen from around 2 per cent in the 1950s to around 17 per cent in 1985 see figure 1 the figures are for male unemployment because there is no consistent series for women 1 even more remarkably unemployment has fallen in only three years out of the last twenty 1973 1978 and 1979 to account for this we need a model that explains both changes in the natural or non accelerating inflation rate of unemployment nairu and deviations from it we use a three equation supply side model centred on the labour market this has two main features the first concerns the determination of employment in the short run the labour demand function that we use cuts through the fruitless debate now raging especially in europe as to whether current unemployment is classical or keynesian according to the classical view employment is too high because real wages are too high according to the keynesian view real wages are not binding and unemployment is high because the product market does not clear with prices too high relative to nominal demand the whole debate is set in the framework of perfect competition yet in perfect competition prices are set by impersonal forces and it is not clear what could possibly stop prices clearing the market it is much more reasonable to think of prices as being set by imperfectly competitive firms existing prices being the best they can think of given the demand they face in this context firms demand for labour will depend on both the real product wage and the level of real aggregate demand this is the demand function we estimate and it conforms both to common sense and to the data however this does not imply that employment can be made to grow without limit by pumping up real demand for in the medium term when price surprises are eliminated our model determines three variables employment real wages and real demand on the basis of three equations an employment equation a price equation and a wage equation thus in the medium term there is a natural level of employment and corresponding to this a natural level of real aggregate demand the second key feature of our model concerns the medium term determination of unemployment in the medium term the planned mark up of wages over prices in wage settlements must be consistent with the mark up of prices over wage costs in employers pricing behaviour for if wage setters try to set real product wages higher than is consistent with employers pricing behaviour this generates ever increasing inflation thus the key to understanding unemployment in the medium term is the behaviour of wage setters if events occur that push them towards too high real wages then unemployment has to rise to offset these influences we shall call these influences wage pressure variables or push factors and they are clearly crucial in understanding unemployment the variables here include the social security system employment protection

learning about monetary policy rules abstract we study macroeconomic systems with forward looking private sector agents and a monetary authority that is trying to control the economy through the use of a linear policy feedback rule we use stability under recursive learning a la evans and honkapohja learning and expectations in macroeconomics princeton university press princeton new jersey 2001 as a criterion for evaluating monetary policy rules in this context we find that considering learning can alter the evaluation of alternative policy rules

strategic alliances a substitute for strategic trade policy abstract in this paper loose competition policy towards strategic alliances is examined as an alternative to strategic trade policy alliances are assumed to design a strategic contract which changes incentives in the output market permitting strategic alliances and using strategic trade policy yield exactly the same outcome if the good is not consumed domestically and all firms of a country form a single alliance the performance of the policy options in a more general setting depends on a number of interacting factors including i the share of domestic consumption ii the nature of product market competition iii the initial number of firms in the industry and iv the feasibility of international alliances irrespective of the nature of product market competition the alliance solution performs particularly well for low to medium shares of domestic consumption and if international alliances are feasible in small number oligopolies

firm size and employment determination in dutch manufacturing industries this paper examines whether the determination of employment differs between large and small firms an employment equation is estimated on panel data of 67 35 three digit industries in dutch manufacturing 1974 1986 the conclusions are as follows firstly employment adjustment appears to be faster in small firms than in large ones secondly the elasticity of factor substitution and the real wage elasticity at constant output are nearly the same for large and small firms thirdly the estimated output elasticities suggest constant returns to scale in large firms and increasing returns in small ones finally the number of working hours has less impact on employment in small firms than in large ones

on the indeterminacy of equilibrium exchange rates in this paper we consider a particular international economic policy regime the laissez faire regime the distinguishing features of which are unrestricted portfolio choice and floating exchange rates and as we show this regime although favored by many economists is not economically feasible it does not have a determinate equilibrium that is an implication of an overlapping generations model more basically it is an implication of the notion that money is wanted only in order to accomplish trades

monetary policy determinacy and learnability in a two block world economy we study how determinacy and learnability of worldwide rational expectations equilibrium may be affected by monetary policy in a simple two country new keynesian framework under both fixed and flexible exchange rates we find that open economy considerations may alter conditions for determinacy and learnability relative to closed economy analyses and that new concerns can arise in the analysis of classic topics such as the desirability of exchange rate targeting and monetary policy cooperation

threshold effects of financial status on the cost frontiers of financial institutions in nondynamic panels this article applies hansen s 1999 2000 threshold regression model to estimate translog cost frontiers in the hope of shedding light on the banking industry s production processes and the extent of its technical efficiency te the threshold technique allows for the existence of multiple technologies of production distinguished by an exogenous threshold variable strong evidence of multiple technologies is found in the industry irrespective of which financial indicator as constructed by factor analysis defines the threshold variable cost savings and scale economies among the various underlying technologies are compared herein we also highlight the differences between the threshold results and the conventional cost frontier

windfall profits and vertical relationships who gained in the japanese auto industry from vers this paper employs an event study to analyze the effect of the 1981 voluntary export restraint agreements on profits in the japanese automobile industry stock price movements of seven japanese automakers and sixty nine of their suppliers are examined the results indicate that the profits of japan s producers of passenger cars rose as a result of the voluntary export restraints while only some suppliers large ones and those producing specialized parts or services appear to have shared the benefits voluntary export restraints increased profits for some firms in the japanese auto industry but many suppliers did not share the windfall copyright 1993 by blackwell publishing ltd

insurance within the firm we evaluate the allocation of risk between firms and their workers using matched employer employee panel data unlike previous contributions this paper focuses on idiosyncratic shocks to the firm which are the correct empirical counterpart of the theoretical notion of diversifiable risk we allow for both temporary and permanent shocks to output and find that firms absorb temporary fluctuations fully but insure workers against permanent shocks only partially risk sharing considerations can account for about 15 percent of overall earnings variability the remainder originating from idiosyncratic shocks to individual workers our welfare calculations indicate that firms are an important vehicle of insurance provision

harnessing windfall revenues optimal policies for resource rich developing economies a windfall of natural resource revenue or foreign aid faces government with choices of how to manage public debt investment and the distribution of funds for consumption particularly if the windfall is both anticipated and temporary we show that the permanent income hypothesis prescription of an ever lasting increase in consumption financed by borrowing ahead of the windfall and then accumulating a sovereign wealth fund swf is not optimal for capital scarce developing economies such countries should accumulate public and private capital to accelerate their development and only if the windfall is large relative to initial foreign debt is it optimal to build a swf the optimal time profile of consumption is biased towards the near future as compared to the permanent income hypothesis outcomes depend on instruments available to government we study cases where the government can make lump sum transfers to consumers where such transfers are impossible so optimal policy involves cutting distortionary taxation in order to raise investment and wages and where ricardian consumers can borrow against future revenues in which case the policy response to possible over consumption is a high level of investment in infrastructure

imperfect information credit markets and unemployment this paper describes how imperfect information in both capital and labor markets can in a context of maximizing firms and perfectly flexible prices and wages give rise to cyclical variations in unemployment whose character closely resembles that of observed business cycles this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

tobin s q and financial policy abstract recent research in macroeconomics has emphasized the importance of linking the financial and real sectors and working with optimizing models tobin s q model of investment would appear to provide a framework satisfying these two criteria in contrast to the original presentation of the q model the formal development has not recognized that the firm actively participates in a number of financial markets in this broader context q may be an uninformative and possibly misleading signal for investment expenditures we then endeavor to turn this negative theoretical result to positive advantage in resolving a number of empirical problems with q models

the employment financing nexus evidence from a panel of west german firms the objective of the paper is to investigate the linkage between financial factors and employment decisions of west german firms the underlying model is based upon rational expectations and convex adjustment costs the time series cross section estimates for the period 1989 1994 are obtained using information on individual firms contained in business surveys we find that financial constraints can indeed restrain the level of employment in small firms on the contrary there is no evidence that this result applies to larger firms as well

the new protectionism revisited this paper reviews the strategic trade literature in oligopolistic industries beginning with the brander spencer 1984 model of duopolistic international rent shifting issues of long run equilibrium entry conditions and empirical estimates of the size of oligopolistic rents in tradable goods industries are reviewed in addition the results of simulation models of strategic trade policy are summarized the final sections of the paper deal with issues of the retaliation by other countries against single country policies and long term policy equilibrium it is emphasized that the prisoners dilemma characterization of these equilibria may be inappropriate and managed trade may be a more plausible outcome in oligopolistic industries than strategic trade policies

a dynamic contracting model for wages and employment in three european economies we present a structural dynamic non linear model for an efficient contracting between a firm facing adjustment costs on labour and a union having preferences which are subject to habit formation the model s first order necessary conditions are estimated for the french the dutch and the belgian labour market the estimation results turned out to be remarkably similar for the three countries two alternative hypotheses are also investigated i a myopic behaviour of the union and ii a competitive labour market the performance of the efficient contract model with a forward looking union is found to be superior to that of the neo classical model in explaining the dynamics of employment and wages in the three countries

learning about monetary policy rules when the cost channel matters abstract we study how monetary policy may affect determinacy and expectational stability e stability of rational expectations equilibrium when the cost channel of monetary policy matters focusing on instrumental taylor type rules and optimal target rules we show that standard policies can induce indeterminacy and expectational instability when the cost channel is present a naive application of the traditional taylor principle could be misleading and expectations based reaction function under discretion does not always induce determinate and e stable equilibrium this result contrasts with the findings of bullard and mitra 2002 learning about monetary policy rules journal of monetary economics 49 1105 1129 and evans and honkapohja 2003 expectations and stability problem for optimal monetary policies review of economic studies 70 807 824 for the standard new keynesian model the ability of the central bank to commit to an optimal policy is an antidote to these problems

limited asset markets participation monetary policy and inverted aggregate demand logic abstract this paper incorporates limited asset markets participation in dynamic general equilibrium and develops a simple analytical framework for monetary policy analysis aggregate dynamics and stability properties of an otherwise standard business cycle model depend nonlinearly on the degree of asset market participation while moderate participation rates strengthen the role of monetary policy low enough participation causes an inversion of results dictated by conventional wisdom the slope of the is curve changes sign the taylor principle is inverted optimal welfare maximizing discretionary monetary policy requires a passive policy rule and the effects and propagation of shocks are changed however a targeting rule implementing optimal policy under commitment delivers equilibrium determinacy regardless of the degree of asset market participation our results may justify fed s behavior during the great inflation period

an analysis of the length of labour and financial contracts a study for spain this study investigates the connection between the duration of financial contracts and that of labour contracts workers with long term contracts have incentives to invest in training this makes them attractive to the entrepreneur furthermore this behaviour will be reinforced if financial contracts are long term because it reduces the probability of an early liquidation as well as the dismissal of trained workers as a conclusion significant increases in the length of financing contracts should be accompanied by corresponding increases in the length of labour contracts support for this theoretical contention is found by testing it on a dataset composed of spanish manufacturing firms for the period 1991 2000

labor demand and the structure of adjustment costs this study examines the costs firms face in adjusting labor demand to exogenous shocks evidence on monthly plant level data shows that adjustment proceeds in jumps employment is unchanged in response to small shocks but moves instantaneously to a new equilibrium if the shocks are large results in the large literature that assumes smooth adjustment are due to aggregation of this nonlinear relation the finding has implications for cyclical changes in productivity for severance pay layoff and plant closing restrictions and for all other policies that affect the cost of adjusting employment copyright 1989 by american economic association

venture capital in western europe abstract western europe is in the process of an entrepreneurial renaissance an integral part of this renaissance is the emergence of a venture capital industry in europe although the venture capital institution in europe is very much modeled along the lines of its american counterpart it is significantly smaller in size both in absolute terms as well as in relation to the size of the economy substantial differences in venture capital activity are also found to exist within europe it is most prevaient in the united kingdom france and netherlands surprisingly it is less developed in west germany particularly given the size of this country s economy venture capital in western europe shares some characteristics with that in the united states its investment focus is in high technology and syndication between funds is common unlike the united states however banks are a major source of venture capital funds surprisingly in spite of the economic integration to which the european community aspires the mobility of venture capital across national boundaries is low the authors try to explain differences in venture capital activity in several countries of the european community by examining four aspects of each country s environment in particular the size of the technology sector the cultural influence on entrepreneurial risk taking the government s policy to stimulate risk capital and entrepreneurship and finally the ability of venture backed firms to turn to publicly traded markets as a source of future financing one common factor shared by the three countries with the highest level of venture capital activity is the presence of a secondary stock market geared to the needs of a small relatively new venture contemplating an initial public offering the unlisted securities market in the united kingdom the seconde marche in france and the parallel market in the netherlands serve these needs and provide the mechanism by which venture capitalists can liquidate their equity position after the venture is quoted on these financial markets to the venture it provides access to public financing for funding continued growth in the united kingdom and netherlands the business enterprise has historically been regarded as a tradeable entity and hence the concept of ownership by passive investors is well accepted in france where this is a relatively recent phenomenon the government has played a strong role in stimulating an interest in stock market investing in general it has also created some extremely attractive fiscal incentives for investors in venture capital funds

currency substitution risk premia and the taylor principle abstract this paper studies the equilibrium determinacy properties of a simple interest rate rule in a small open economy subject to currency substitution i e the use of a foreign currency for domestic transactions and risk premia on foreign borrowing it shows that if currencies are substitute in the provision of liquidity services the rule s response to inflation has to be sufficiently above unity for the equilibrium to be locally determinate this reinforced taylor principle requirement appears to be more binding in economies characterized by a larger elasticity of currency substitution more debt elastic country risk premia and intermediate degrees of dollarization in transactions

wage interdependence through decentralized bargaining abstract the idea that sector specific unions are influenced by the wages obtained by other unions has mainly been used to support the empirical observation that wages are highly correlated among industries the sources of wage interdependence can mainly be found in unions preferences in the nature of technology and in price and demand determination the presence of externalities and of strategic complementarity among unions leads to suboptimal equilibria which generates non desired inflation unemployment and possibly also trade balance deficit this enforces the idea that part of current unemployment can be eliminated by improving the cooperation between social actors

employment determination in british industry investigations using micro data this paper derives and then estimates a model of employment where unions and firms bargain over wages and possibly employment and efficiency wage considerations may be important it illustrates the difficulties associated in interpreting many existing attempts to discriminate between alternative models the results based on over 200 u k firms suggest that employment is negatively related to the firm s own wage and the change in the own wage relative to outside opportunities the latter may be an efficiency wage effect various financial factors are also seen to have a significant effect on employment

a dynamic model of union power wages and employment the traditional approach to modelling the effects of trade union power on wages and employment has paid very little attention to how the form of union power affects the outcome in this paper wage and employment determination is considered in a dynamic model where some workers e g non union members continue to work in the event of a dispute to see whether this practice can be justified the predictions of the model are very different from the standard one for example both wages and employment may be a nonmonotonic function of union density the model can also explain situations in which unions are sustainable in the long run

evidence on the role of cash flow for investment abstract recent work in macroeconomics argues that imperfections in capital markets may lead to business cycle fluctuations by propagating relatively modest shocks evidence for such a mechanism also known as the financial accelerator consists largely of firm level studies showing that cash flow is an important predictor of investment but this evidence is often viewed with skepticism because cash flow is also a good indicator of investment opportunities in this paper we develop a framework for estimating the extent to which the predictive power of cash flow can be attributed to its role as a fundamental versus its role in alleviating credit frictions for firms with access to commercial paper and bond markets we find that the perfect capital markets model of investment can fully account for the role of cash flow for firms with only limited access to capital markets as indicated by lack of participation in public debt markets however investment appears to be excessively sensitive to fluctuations in cash flow these results thus clarify the role of cash flow in investment equations and provide support for the existence of a financial accelerator

near unit root small open economies abstract the marginal utility of wealth in incomplete markets small open economy models follows a unit root process i study the nonlinear properties of devices often used to remove the unit root and i find that they generate different dynamics when matching emerging markets models with endogenous discount factors reinforce consumption response to shocks and increase the countercyclicality of the trade balance to output ratio conversely models with debt frictions ameliorate the responses of consumption and trade balance hence to generate dynamics similar to those in emerging economies the debt frictions need to be small inducing a near unit root behavior in their euler equations this difference across models is hidden when matching developed economies because of consumption smoothing and the mild countercyclicality of the trade balance

currency substitution new evidence from emerging economies abstract this paper provides new empirical evidence for currency substitution in different emerging market economies estimation results from a money in the utility function framework indicate that foreign currencies are strong substitutes for domestic currency in producing liquidity services

structural determinants of spatial labour markets a case study of the netherlands van der laan l 1992 structural determinants of spatial labour markets a case study of the netherlands reg studies 26 485 498 this research analyses the causal structure of the regional differentiation of labour markets in the netherlands in the period 1975 85 a heterodox model is constructed with the help of various economic labour market theories based on a latent variable partial least squares model the analysis shows the relatively minor effect of regulation variables on the labour market and the importance of both the socio economic environment and the production process it also shows the strong integration of demand supply and commuting total incoming and outgoing migration though showed up to be unimportant for the regional differentiation of labour markets the research points to a continuing regional disequilibrium of demand and supply in relation to government policies this is based on the decreasing mobility of capital to the lagging regions an increase of the importance of

financing technology based small firms in europe what do we know this paper reviews the evidence on financing technology based small firms tbsfs in europe european tbsfs finance new investments by relying primarily on internal funds due to capital market failures induced by asymmetric information european venture capital has caught up with us venture capital but this is mainly because of the growth in uk venture investments it is unclear whether european venture capital has been able to certify the quality and enhance the growth of funded companies compared with the nasdaq there is little development of trading in high tech stocks in europe the so called new markets established in the 1990s collapsed in the wake of the internet bubble crash public venture capital and research and development r d tax incentives seem to have positively affected high tech firms

venture capital and management led leveraged buy outs a european perspective abstract management and leveraged buy outs became phenomena of the 1980s from beginnings in the u s they quickly traversed the atlantic spreading first to the u k and then throughout europe the venture capital industry has played a crucial role in the development of buy outs in europe particularly in smaller deals in the u k the netherlands and france this paper examines three aspects of the market for venture and development capital funded management led buy outs in europe it provides a framework for analysis of the different levels of development of each country s market it examines performance of u k buy outs and addresses the extent and nature of exits throughout the paper use is made of the extensive database of european buy outs developed by the authors the main conclusions to emerge are as follows european experience can not be compared to that in the u s as a single economy there are important differences between european countries in respect of the level of buy out activity and the extent to which conditions are or will be favourable for the development of such transactions conceptually a buy out market may be considered as requiring three main factors to be present if it is to develop the generation of buy out opportunities the infrastructure to complete a transaction and opportunities for the investors in a buy out to realise their gains these broad groups may be further sub divided the generation of opportunities will be heavily influenced by attitudes to entrepreneurial risk and hence willingness of managers to buy the ownership structure of industry and hence the generation of entities which are for sale and the state of development of mergers and acquisition markets the infrastructure to complete transactions includes sources of funding both in respect of venture capital availability and the ability of banks to fund transactions the nature of legal and taxation regimes and the existence of intermediaries and advisors who can both identify and negotiate buy outs the existence of suitable exit routes comprises stock market flotation sale to another group and recapitalisation possibly through a secondary buy out many of these factors are similar to the conditions necessary for venture capital deals to develop the generation of entities for sale may take various forms with succession issues in family firms divestment of unwanted divisions privatization of public sector activities and going privates of companies quoted on a stock market being the most important this framework was used to analyze european buy out markets through a combination of interview and desk research the evidence shows that the most highly developed buy out markets and those with the greatest short term potential are not necessarily to be found in the largest economies u s investors who turn towards europe to develop their markets at a time when the u s buy out market is experiencing a downturn and european investors seeking to broaden their activities need to be aware of these differences as in comparable studies in the u s u k lbos on the evidence from our survey of 182 buyouts on average produce performance improvements u k lbos appear to undertake a greater level of new product development and asset purchase after buy out than do their counterparts in the u s and have placed less emphasis on asset disposals than u s lbos managers buying out frequently tightened up their control of working capital the results of our survey indicate support for both the entrepreneurial and agency cost reduction perspectives about buy outs with the former perhaps being somewhat more in evidence exit routes are an important aspect of the buy out market but evidence presented here indicates that buy outs are unlikely to exit in the way in which they originally envisaged in particular buy outs that initially were aiming for flotation on a secondary tier stock market have almost invariably been sold to third parties

does trade openness matter for aggregate instability abstract this paper presents a cash in advance model of a small open economy and shows that whether an inflation targeting interest rate rule introduces aggregate instability depends in general on the degree of openness to international trade this result emerges regardless of whether prices are sticky or flexible in a closed economy as the monetary authority responds to movements in inflation the resulting changes in interest rates affect aggregate consumption through an intertemporal substitution effect and an inflation tax effect in a small open economy this policy also induces changes in the terms of trade which depending on the degree of openness can generate counteracting effects on consumption as a consequence the implications of interest rate rules on macroeconomic stability in an open economy differ from those in a closed economy

testing dynamic models of worker effort this article derives three dynamic models of worker effort determination based on a shirking efficiency wage model a compensating differentials model and a union firm bargaining model it shows that all of these three models have the same long run comparative statics but differ in their short run dynamics we use these different predictions about the dynamics as a basis for testing the models euler equations for each model are estimated using panel data on 486 u k companies the evidence supports the shirking model in firms with low levels of unionization but the bargaining model in highly unionized industries

bargaining with outside options wages and employment in uk manufacturing 1974 1982 this paper studies the determinants of wages and employment at the firm level the question which is addressed is the extent to which external market pressures are important relative to economic variables which are specific to the firm one can interpret the former set of factors as outsider variables and the latter as reflecting the importance of insider variables the research is therefore a microeconomic investigation on insider versus outsider factors in wage and employment determination it can thus provide some evidence on the role played by the currently incumbent workers in affecting the economic conditions at the workplace see e g lindbeck and snower i986 i988 the issue has recently attracted considerable attention in view of its alleged capability of explaining the high and persistent levels of unemployment in western countries see also blanchard and summers i986 i987 and layard and bean i989 the theoretical model developed in the first part of the paper section i and then tested in the second part sections ii iv is a variant of the efficient bargains model of the labour market modified in accordance to recent developments in non cooperative game theory the classical model of labour bargaining is set out in mcdonald and solow i98i the firm and the union bargain over wages and employment simultaneously and the outcome is thus efficient in the sense of leontief 1946 traditional axiomatic bargaining

do unions contract for added employment the efficient contract model predicts unions will contract for added employment that is a level of employment higher than would be predicted by the demand curve for labor using three data sets on canadian industries in 1971 81 u s industries in 1972 and u s construction projects in 1973 74 and several estimation techniques the author estimates and compares labor demand equations for both union and nonunion firms some regressions that control for few variables support the added employment hypothesis but those with more complete specifications reject it