bailey graham and kaplan s deregulating the airlines deregulating the airlines a this fine book represents the latest and in many ways the most complete report on the early experiences with u s airline deregulation like its predecessors the analysis covers essentially the first two years or so of deregulation experience most of the data series end either on or before june 1981 and thus before the traumas associated with the patco strike of august 1981 and the major economic recession of 1982 2 the authors were all actively involved in implementing u s airline deregulation bailey was a member of the civil aeronautics board graham was a cab staff economist and kaplan was the cab s director of economic analysis during the period just before and after formal enactment and signing of the airline deregulation act in october 1978 as a consequence the book is especially strong on reports and descriptions of the maneuvers and logic underlying the decisions of the cab during the transition to deregulation in particular the authors provide strong insights on how pre airline deregulation act decisions anticipated and were designed to help facilitate the process of deregulation in other respects however the book s contribution is not so distinct or original specifically most of the basic findings are not surprisingly consistent with those in earlier reports on the initial postderegulation experience in essence the book besides providing some new insights based upon the inside experience of the authors somewhat extends the data base upon which the earlier findings were founded and in a few instances particularly in the analysis of airline competitive behavior brings some new analytical tools or tests to bear on the problem for example with regard to what is probably the most important economic aspect of deregulation airline pricing policy bailey graham and kaplan find that 1 airline fares since deregulation have become more and more cost related 2 the airlines have made greater use of offpeak price concessions to improve capacity utilization and 3 more differentiated fares reflecting not only cost differences but demand elasticity and other market differences as well have generally emerged they also find that this differentiation has perhaps worked less to the advantage of small town travellers than to those living in and around major hub cities although their evidence on this is weaker than that found in some other

productivity performance of u s trunk and local servce airlines in the era of deregulation the transition to deregulation of the u s air transport industry began in 1976 in this paper we measure total factor productivity growth of the airlines for the first five years of the transition 1976 1980 and compare the performance with that of the preceding years we find that productivity growth accelerated from 2 8 per year to 5 1 per year an analysis of covariance model with individual airlines as observations leads to the conclusion that for the trunk airlines nearly all of the acceleration can be explained by increases in output and load factor and decreases in the growth of capacity for the local service airlines however less than half of the acceleration may be so explained

oil and the macroeconomy since world war ii all but one of the u s recessions since world war ii have been preceded typically with a lag of around three fourths of a year by a dramatic increase in the price of crude petroleum this does not mean that oil shocks caused these recessions evidence is presented however that even over the period 1948 72 this correlation is statistically significant and nonspurious supporting the proposition that oil shocks were a contributing factor in at least some of the u s recessions prior to 1972 by extension energy price increases may account for much of post opec macroeconomic performance

u s airline deregulation its effects on passengers capital and labor his paper presents an analysis of the effects of airline deregulation on passengers business and personal first class and coach and explores how capital and labor have fared in a free market the evidence corroborates many benefits that proponents of deregulation predicted but it has not worked perfectly prices are not fully competitive and for certain dimensions service quality is down furthermore the contestability hypothesis as applied to the airline industry does not withstand statistical examination

jevons paradox revisited the evidence for backfire from improved energy efficiency beginning with william stanley jevons in 1865 a number of authors have claimed that economically justified energy efficiency improvements will increase rather than reduce energy consumption jevons paradox is extremely difficult to test empirically but could have profound implications for energy and climate policy this paper summarises and critiques the arguments and evidence that have been cited in support of jevons paradox focusing in particular on the work of len brookes and harry saunders it identifies some empirical and theoretical weaknesses in these arguments highlights the questions they raise for economic orthodoxy and points to some interesting parallels between these arguments and those used by the biophysical school of ecological economics while the evidence in favour of jevons paradox is far from conclusive it does suggest that economy wide rebound effects are larger than is conventionally assumed and that energy plays a more important role in driving productivity improvements and economic growth than is conventionally assumed

why ecological economics needs to return to its roots the biophysical foundation of socio economic systems abstract ecological economics was formally established in 1989 with the ambitious vision of developing a new economic paradigm embedding the social and economic systems in the biophysical world ecological economics had its roots in the biophysical understanding of economics that pioneers of the field georgescu roegen 1971 odum 1971 daly 1977 jansson 1984 martinez alier 1987 and others developed while studying the thermodynamic bedrocks shared by natural and social systems subsequently however ecological economics has explicitly but controversially adopted a big umbrella approach to methodological pluralism focusing more on topics such as valuing nature and its functions rather than attempting to understand and quantify the biophysical roots of economic activities biophysical economics was established in response to these concerns focusing more on developing analyses and models of the transformations of nature to generate wealth and approached mostly from an energy and material flows perspective the present paper argues that to achieve its original vision ecological economics must return to its biophysical roots collaboration between the two fields will help the next generation of thinkers to address the socio ecological challenges of the 21st century requiring an energy transformation called for by aspirations such as the green new deal and the un sustainable development goals

are the macroeconomic effects of oil price shock symmetric a factor augmented vector autoregressive approach abstract this paper aims to examine the asymmetric effect of oil price shocks on real economic activity in the u s within the context of a nonlinear factor augmented vector autoregressive favar model by employing simulation methods we trace the effects of positive and negative oil price shocks on the macroeconomic variables through the impulse response function irf it is found that the negative impacts of higher oil prices are larger than the positive effects of lower oil prices and the asymmetric effects are more evident when the oil price shocks are larger the results are robust to different lag specification and choice of factors

evolution of erois of electricity until 2050 estimation and implications on prices abstract the eroi for energy returned on invested of an energy technology measures its ability to provide energy efficiently previous studies draw a link between the affluence of a society and the eroi of its energy system and show that erois of renewables are lower than those of fossil fuels logically concerns have been expressed that system wide eroi may decrease during a renewable energy transition first i explain theoretically that the erois of renewables themselves could then decrease as energy efficient fossil fuels would be replaced by less energy efficient renewables in the supply chain then using the multi regional input output model themis i estimate the evolution of erois and prices of electric technologies from 2010 to 2050 for different scenarios global eroi of electricity is predicted to go from 12 in 2010 to 11 in 2050 in a business as usual scenario but down to 6 in a 100 renewable one finally i study the economic implication of a declining eroi an inverse relation between eroi and price is suggested empirically even though theory shows that both quantities may move in the same direction

from ecological macroeconomics to a theory of endogenous money for a finite planet abstract this paper takes stock of the achievements and gaps of the emerging field of ecological macroeconomics which has brought insights from specific schools of macroeconomics most notably post keynesian to ecological economics with a strong emphasis on the endogeneity of money ecological macroeconomics has proposed fiscal monetary and prudential reforms to boost green investments and developed new modeling frameworks to explore the interactions between the financial macroeconomic and biophysical spheres while these proposals open a broader range of possibilities to engage in a socio ecological transition than those offered by the current paradigm of a financialized global economy they paradoxically suffer from similar limitations by placing much faith in green investments they impose a vision of the transition that presents strong technical and institutional limitations the field also fails to revisit its own understanding of macroeconomics and of specific phenomena e g financial instability through a biophysical lens in spite of increasing transdisciplinary evidence supporting this approach we suggest overcoming these limitations through institutionalist perspectives that understand money as a language through which value is created and legitimized those perspectives seem essential to re embed the governance of money within a worldview that acknowledges the finiteness and incommensurable values of earth s life support systems

causality relationship between the price of oil and economic growth in japan abstract this paper investigates the relationship between the price of oil and economic growth in japan during the period from 2000 to 2008 using an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity egarch model we employ a residual cross correlation function ccf approach developed by cheung y w ng n k 1996 a causality in variance test and its application to financial market prices journal of econometrics 72 33 48 the empirical results reveal that the economic growth rate granger causes the change of oil price in mean and variance and the change of oil price granger causes the economic growth rate in mean and variance previous studies have analyzed the response of economic activity to oil price shocks however we analyze the causality relations for both means and variances and identify the direction of information flow and the timing of causation

dynamic cyclical comovements between oil prices and us gdp a wavelet perspective abstract in this paper we use wavelet analysis to investigate the cyclical comovements between crude oil prices and us gdp taking into account the decline in the volatility of us gdp growth that has occurred since the mid 1980s our main findings suggest that before 1984 q1 the crude oil prices were leading the us gdp cycle by 3 quarters and granger cause us gdp in contrast after 1984 q1 the crude oil prices were lagging the us business cycle and a reverse causality is found to run from us gdp to oil prices the multiscale granger causality tests globally corroborate theses results

energy consumption and economic growth new evidence from meta analysis abstract the causal relationships between energy consumption and economic growth have given rise to much discussion but remain controversial alternative data sets based on different time spans countries energy policies and econometric approaches result in diverse outcomes a meta analysis using a multinomial logit model with 174 samples governing the relationships between gdp and energy consumption is applied here to investigate the major factors that affect these controversial outcomes the empirical results have demonstrated how the time spans subject selections including gdp and energy consumption econometric models and tools for greenhouse gases emission reduction characteristics significantly affect these controversial outcomes

causal relationship between energy consumption and gdp growth revisited a dynamic panel data approach abstract this paper uses the panel data of energy consumption and gdp for 82 countries from 1972 to 2002 based on the income levels defined by the world bank the data are divided into four categories low income group lower middle income group upper middle income group and high income group we employ the gmm sys approach for the estimation of the panel var model in each of the four groups afterwards the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is tested and ascertained we discover a in the low income group there exists no causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth b in the middle income groups lower and upper middle income groups economic growth leads energy consumption positively c in the high income group countries economic growth leads energy consumption negatively after further in depth analysis of energy related data the results indicate that in the high income group there is a great environmental improvement as a result of more efficient energy use and reduction in the release of co2 however in the upper middle income group countries after the energy crisis the energy efficiency declines and the release of co2 rises since there is no evidence indicating that energy consumption leads economic growth in any of the four income groups a stronger energy conservation policy should be pursued in all countries

history and social responses to environmental tax reform in the united kingdom abstract this paper gives a short history of fuel taxation and the climate change levy in the uk the research described was based around the use of interviews and focus groups to inform the assessment of social responses to etr policies and the development of improved designs for them interviews were conducted with selected policy makers and companies focus groups were conducted with quota samples of the general public the research shows that the problem that etr faces in terms of public acceptance is not so much outright hostility to environmental taxation as conceptual problems with the design similar conceptual problems were also found in the interviews with business people these can be summarised as lack of trust about use of the revenues difficulty in understanding the purpose of a tax shift and a desire for incentives for good behaviour as well as perceived penalties for bad behaviour

oil price movements and macroeconomic performance evidence from twenty six oecd countries abstract this study investigates the relationship between oil price movements and macroeconomic aggregates such as gross domestic product gdp consumer prices cpi and unemployment for oecd countries to do this second generation econometric methods have been employed to panel data including panel unit root tests panel cointegration tests and panel long run models panel unit root tests suggest that oil prices plus selected macroeconomic aggregates in oecd countries are non stationary at levels but become stationary at first differences in the existence of multiple structural breaks five structural break points have successfully been investigated in the series of this study during panel unit root and panel cointegration tests durbin h panel co integration tests confirm that there is a long term relationship between oil prices and those macroeconomic aggregates on the other hand results of this study reveal that the price of oil exerts statistically and negatively significant impacts on gdp cpi and unemployment in the case of oecd countries in general

energy consumption and economic growth evidence from cameroon abstract the aim of this paper is to study the nature of the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in cameroon through a three step approach i study the stationarity of the chronic ii test of causality between variables and iii estimate the appropriate model the study concludes in a non stationarity of the series using the data in first difference the granger causality test yields a strong evidence for unidirectional causality running from oil to gdp cointegration tests also show that these two series are co integrated and the error correction model ecm reveals that every percentage increase in oil products consumption increases economic growth by around 1 1 this result confirms the intuition that an economic policy aimed at improving energy supply will necessarily have a positive impact on economic growth on the other side a lack of energy is a major bottleneck for further economic development in cameroon

energy expenditure economic growth and the minimum eroi of society we estimate energy expenditure for the us and world economies from 1850 to 2012 periods of high energy expenditure relative to gdp from 1850 to 1945 or spikes 1973 74 and 1978 79 are associated with low economic growth rates and periods of low or falling energy expenditure are associated with high and rising economic growth rates e g 1945 1973 over the period 1960 2010 for which we have continuous year to year data for control variables capital formation population and unemployment rate we estimate that statistically in order to enjoy positive growth the us economy cannot afford to spend more than 11 of its gdp on energy given the current energy intensity of the us economy this translates in a minimum societal eroi of approximately 11 1 or a maximum tolerable average price of energy of twice the current level granger tests consistently reveal a one way causality running from the level of energy expenditure as a fraction of gdp to economic growth in the us between 1960 and 2010 a coherent economic policy should be founded on improving net energy efficiency this would yield a double dividend increased societal eroi through decreased energy intensity of capital investment and decreased sensitivity to energy price volatility

energy eroi and quality of life abstract the near and long term societal effects of declining eroi are uncertain but probably adverse a major obstacle to examining social implications of declining eroi is that we do not have adequate empirical understanding of how eroi is linked directly or indirectly to an average citizen s ability to achieve well being to evaluate the possible linkages between societal well being and net energy availability we compare these preliminary estimates of energy availability 1 eroi at a societal level 2 energy use per capita 3 multiple regression analyses and 4 a new composite energy index lambert energy index to select indicators of quality of life hdi percent children under weight health expenditures gender inequality index literacy rate and access to improved water our results suggest that energy indices are highly correlated with a higher standard of living we also find a saturation point at which increases in per capita energy availability greater than 150 gj or eroi above 20 1 are not associated with further improvement to society

three laws of energy transitions the paper formulates and explores a hypothesis on three general energy transition laws the law of stable long term energy costs to income ratio the law of improving energy quality and the law of growing energy productivity these laws are essential for shaping long term projections and checking for their consistency all three are rooted in amazingly stable in time and universal across countries energy costs to income ratios limited energy purchasing power sets up thresholds which if exceeded bring asymmetry to energy demand to price elasticity the author believes that the theoretical postulate on the substantial substitution among production factors which is used in the production functions theory may be incorrect in reality innovations mainly lead to the substitution of a low quality production factor with the same yet of a better quality improving energy quality with stable costs to income ratio is accompanied by growing energy productivity energy costs to income thresholds are indicators allowing for better projections of oil prices

an international literature survey on energy economic growth nexus evidence from country specific studies in this paper an extensive review of the rapidly growing in the literature on the nexus between economic growth and four types of energy consumption total energy consumption electricity consumption nuclear consumption and renewable consumption the various hypotheses associated with the causal interaction between these variables along with a survey of the empirical literature are also discussed the survey focuses on country coverage periods modeling techniques and empirical conclusions a general observation from these studies that results are found to be sensitive to methodology and type of energy considered the empirical results for the specific countries surveyed show that i for energy consumption growth nexus 29 supported the growth hypothesis 27 the feedback hypothesis 23 the conservation hypothesis and 21 the neutrality hypothesis ii for the electricity consumption growth nexus 40 supported the growth hypothesis 33 the feedback hypothesis and 27 conservation hypothesis iii for the nuclear consumption growth nexus 60 supported the neutrality hypothesis and 40 the growth hypothesis and iv for the renewable consumption growth nexus 40 supported the neutrality hypothesis 40 the conservation hypothesis and 20 the growth hypothesis these mixed results may be attributed to the different used data selected variables and econometric approaches undertaken

the causal link between energy and output growth evidence from markov switching granger causality abstract in this paper we empirically investigate the causal link between energy consumption and economic growth employing a markov switching granger causality analysis we carry out our investigation using annual u s real gdp total final energy consumption and total primary energy consumption data which cover the period between 1968 and 2010 we find that there are significant changes in the causal relation between energy consumption and economic growth over the sample period under investigation our results show that total final energy consumption and total primary energy consumption have significant predictive content for real economic activity in the u s economy furthermore the causality running from energy consumption to output growth seems to be strongly apparent particularly during the periods of economic downturn and energy crisis we also document that output growth has predictive power in explaining total energy consumption furthermore the power of output growth in predicting total energy consumption is found to diminish after the mid of 1980s

eroi of different fuels and the implications for society abstract all forms of economic production and exchange involve the use of energy directly and in the transformation of materials until recently cheap and seemingly limitless fossil energy has allowed most of society to ignore the importance of contributions to the economic process from the biophysical world as well as the potential limits to growth this paper centers on assessing the energy costs of modern day society and its relation to gdp our most important focus is the characteristics of our major energy sources including each fuel s energy return on investment eroi the eroi of our most important fuels is declining and most renewable and non conventional energy alternatives have substantially lower eroi values than traditional conventional fossil fuels at the societal level declining eroi means that an increasing proportion of energy output and economic activity must be diverted to attaining the energy needed to run an economy leaving less discretionary funds available for non essential purchases which often drive growth the declining eroi of traditional fossil fuel energy sources and the effect of that on the world economy are likely to result in a myriad of consequences most of which will not be perceived as good

speculative trading and oil price dynamic a study of the wti market abstract the aim of this paper is to study the oil price dynamic in west texas intermediate wti market in the us by using statistical and econometric tools we first attempt to identify the long term relationship between wti spot prices and the prices of futures contracts on the new york mercantile exchange nymex subsequently we model the short term dynamic between these two prices and this analysis points up several breaks on this basis a short term markov switching vectorial error correction model ms vecm with two distinct states standard state and crisis state has been estimated finally we introduce the volumes of transactions observed on the nymex for the wti contracts and we estimate the influence of the non commercial players we conclude that the hypothesis of an influence of non commercial players on the probability for being in the crisis state cannot be rejected in addition we show that the rise in liquidity of the first financial contracts as measured by the volume of open interest is a key element to understand the dynamics in market prices

a meta analysis investigation of the direction of the energy gdp causal relationship implications for the growth degrowth dialogue abstract the complex relation between energy use and the economic process has long attracted attention issues such as the scarcity of energy resources energy theory of value degrowth and a growth approaches are closely related to the relationship between energy and development the present study traces the implications of the energy gdp causality dialogue for the context of the growth degrowth debate where the energy development link plays a decisive role in that context the present research investigates the possible existence of a fundamental macro direction of causality between energy use and economic growth that is not influenced by study specific characteristics and events towards this objective we perform a meta analysis that takes into account 158 studies on causality between energy and gdp covering the period 1978 2011 this is the first time to our knowledge that meta analysis has been applied to investigate the direction of the energy and gdp causal relationship the meta analysis results neither support the existence of a fundamental macro direction nor the so called neutrality hypothesis e gdp in the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth

oil and the economy a systematic review of the literature for ecological economists abstract this article offers a systematic review of the mainstream literature in oil economics macroeconomics international and financial economics and political economy complementing and complicating the way ecological economics understands the links between oil and the economy we look at the supply and demand factors that affect oil prices the ways oil prices affect the economy the effect of interest rates capital flows and exchange rates on oil prices and extraction and the role of geo politics in governing oil and money flows we develop an illustrative system model of the causal pathways that link oil and the economy and compare alternative explanations of the oil price shocks of the 1970s and 2000s the emphasis of ecological economics on peak oil and resource limits to growth may be relevant over the long run but is less capable of explaining precisely how oil contributes to concrete economic short run crises now

slow oil shocks and the weakening of the oil price macroeconomy relationship abstract many papers have been documenting and analysing the asymmetry and the weakening of the oil price macroeconomy relationship as off the early eighties while there seems to be a consensus about the factors causing the asymmetry namely adjustment costs which offset the benefits of low energy prices the debate about the weakening of the relationship is not over yet moreover the alternative oil price specifications which have been proposed by mork 1989 lee et al 1995 and hamilton 1996 to restore the stability of the relationship fail to granger cause output or unemployment in post 1980 data by using the concept of accelerations of the oil price we show that the weakening of this relationship corresponds to the appearance of slow oil price increases which have less impact on the economy when filtering out these slow oil price variations from the sample we manage to rehabilitate the causality running from the oil price to the macroeconomy and show that far from weakening the oil price accelerations gdp relationship has even been growing stronger since the early eighties

the relationship between electricity consumption electricity prices and gdp in pakistan abstract this study analyzes the relationship among electricity consumption its price and real gdp at the aggregate and sectoral level in pakistan using annual data for the period 1960 2008 the study finds the presence of unidirectional causality from real economic activity to electricity consumption in particular growth in output in commercial manufacturing and agricultural sectors tend to increase electricity consumption while in residential sector growth in private expenditures is the cause of rising electricity consumption the study concludes that electricity production and management needs to be better integrated with overall economic planning exercises this is essential to avoid electricity shortfalls and unplanned load shedding

oil prices and economic activity an asymmetric cointegration approach the aim of this paper is to study the long term relationship between oil prices and economic activity proxied by gdp to account for asymmetries existing in the links between the two variables we propose an approach based on asymmetric cointegration our empirical analysis concerns the u s economy but also the g7 europe and euro area economies results indicate that while standard cointegration is rejected there is evidence for asymmetric cointegration between oil prices and gdp

market influence on the low carbon energy refurbishment of existing multi residential buildings abstract this paper explores the relationship between the energy market the political and regulatory context and energy design decisions for existing multi residential buildings to determine what form the energy market landscape would take if tailored to encourage low carbon solutions the links between market dynamics government strategies and building designs are mapped to understand the steps that achieve carbon reduction from building operation this is achieved using a model that takes financial and energy components with market and design variables to provide net present cost and annual carbon outputs the financial component applies discounted cash flow analysis over the building lifespan with discount rates reflecting contractual characteristics the carbon component uses standard assessment procedure sap 2005 a scenario approach is adopted to test alternative strategies selected to encourage low carbon solutions in two residential and two office designs the results show that the forward assumption of energy price escalation is the most influential factor on energy investment together with the expected differentiation between the escalation of gas and electricity prices using this and other influencing factors the research reveals trends and strategies that will achieve mainstream application of energy efficiency and microgeneration technologies and reduce carbon emissions in the existing multi residential sector