how do payments for environmental services affect land tenure theory and evidence from china we gratefully acknowledge the financial support from renmin university for the research on land market development in the forest tenure reform project no 11xnc002 the british academy reference sg121920 the cambridge humanities research grants scheme and the economy and environment program for southeast asia reference pco13 0308 009

definition consistent measurement of exchange market pressure currencies can be under severe pressure but in a managed exchange rate regime that is not fully visible via the change in the exchange rate the literature has proposed a way to measure such exchange market pressure emp indirectly by adding interest rate changes and forex interventions to the exchange rate change we demonstrate that this measure is not consistent with the definition of emp and develop a new measure that is consistent this is first derived within the commonly used monetary exchange rate model then we generalize the analysis by avoiding the use of an exchange rate model we find that the interest rate should not be taken in the first difference form used so far but rather in level form and relative to the interest rate chosen if the country had no exchange rate objective applications on the european monetary system and east asian crises confirm that this improvement is highly relevant in practice

the global financial crisis explaining cross country differences in the output impact abstract what explains differences in the crisis impact across developing countries and emerging markets using cross country regressions to assess the factors driving the growth performance in 2009 compared to pre crisis forecasts for that year we find that a small set of variables explain a large share of the variation in the growth impact countries with more leveraged domestic financial systems stronger credit growth and more short term debt tended to suffer a larger effect on economic activity although the relative importance of these factors differs across country groups for emerging markets this financial channel trumps the trade channel for a broader set of developing countries however the trade channel seems to have mattered with more open countries affected more strongly and those exporting food commodities being less hard hit exchange rate flexibility helped in buffering the impact of the shock particularly for emerging markets there is also some evidence that countries with a stronger fiscal position prior to the crisis were impacted less severely we find little evidence for the importance of other policy variables

regime switching in the relationship between equity returns and short term interest rates in the uk abstract this paper examines the relationship between uk equity returns and short term interest rates using a two regime markov switching egarch model the results suggest one high return low variance regime within which the conditional variance of equity returns responds persistently but symmetrically to equity return innovations in the other low mean high variance regime equity volatility responds asymmetrically and without persistence to shocks to equity returns there is evidence of a regime dependent relationship between shorter maturity interest rate differentials and equity return volatility furthermore there is evidence that events in the money markets influence the probability of transition across regimes

government management of village commons comparing two forest policies abstract when monitoring or enforcement is difficult governments may find it impossible to manage village forest commons directly village level institutions might be better able to manage these commons yet villagers management objectives may not coincide with those of the state this article considers the effects of two different government policies on the local management of village commons one policy tool attempts to induce villagers to conserve forest commons by giving them a share of the timber harvest we investigate the question of whether or not this scheme joint forest management jfm is preferred either by the villagers or the government to a simple benchmark policy under which the government harvests at random we show that when villagers are sufficiently patient for any equilibrium jfm policy there exists a benchmark policy which gives villagers the same level of utility however whether the government is similarly indifferent between these two arrangements depends on the villagers ability to enforce collective agreements and on the curvature of villagers utility functions

an empirical research of crude oil price changes and stock market in china evidence from the structural breaks and quantile regression this article investigates the relationship between real crude oil price changes and the chinese real stock market at the industry level our study uses monthly data over the period 1994 03 to 2013 12 based on input output io tables this article will explore more details for the driving factors of sensitivity to oil price changes we divide these driving factors into cost and demand side dependence empirical results reveal that sensitivity varies across different industries and periods based on structural breaks and asymmetric effects of oil price changes furthermore some industries seemingly not directly affected by oil are sensitive to the real oil price changes finally using a penalized quantile regression for panel data we find that these two factors significantly affect lower but not upper quantile of sensitivity

common property institutions and sustainable governance of resources abstract the literature on common property based resource management comprises many important studies that seek to specify the conditions under which groups of users will self organize and sustainably govern resources upon which they depend using three of the more comprehensive such studies and with an extensive review of writings on the commons this paper demonstrates that the enterprise of generating lists of conditions under which commons are governed sustainably is a flawed and impossibly costly research task for a way out the paper examines the relative merits of statistical comparative and case study approaches to studying the commons it ends with a plea for careful research design and sample selection construction of causal mechanisms and a shift toward comparative and statistical rather than single case analyses such steps are necessary for a coherent empirically relevant theory of the commons

monetary policy options for mitigating the impact of the global financial crisis on emerging market economies though the hypothesis that exchange rate regimes fully predetermine monetary policy in the face of external shocks hardly finds any advocates on theoretical ground it has crept in the most of empirical research this study adopts a more discerning empirical approach that looks at monetary policy tools used in order to accommodate the recent financial crisis we investigated the gdp growth in 45 emerging market economies in the most intense phase of the crisis and found out that there is no clear difference in the growth performance between countries at the opposite poles of the exchange rate regime spectrum depreciation cum international reserve depletion outperforms the other policy options especially the rise in the interest rate spread we discovered certain complementarities between the information on the policy option and on exchange rate regime taking into account non gaussian settings we decided to use quantile regression which provide in addition more complete picture of relationship between the covariates and the distribution of the gdp growth

oil and the macroeconomy since world war ii all but one of the u s recessions since world war ii have been preceded typically with a lag of around three fourths of a year by a dramatic increase in the price of crude petroleum this does not mean that oil shocks caused these recessions evidence is presented however that even over the period 1948 72 this correlation is statistically significant and nonspurious supporting the proposition that oil shocks were a contributing factor in at least some of the u s recessions prior to 1972 by extension energy price increases may account for much of post opec macroeconomic performance

asset market linkages evidence from financial commodity and real estate assets abstract we use a general markov switching model to examine the relationships between returns over three different asset classes financial assets us stocks and treasury bonds commodities oil and gold and real estate assets us case shiller index we confirm the existence of two distinct regimes a tranquil regime with periods of economic expansion and a crisis regime with periods of economic decline the tranquil regime is characterized by lower volatility and significantly positive stock returns during these periods there is also evidence of a flight from quality from gold to stocks by contrast the crisis regime is characterized by higher volatility and sharply negative stock returns along with evidence of contagion between stocks oil and real estate furthermore during these periods there is strong evidence of a flight to quality from stocks to treasury bonds

hugging trees claiming de facto property rights by blockading resource use this paper explores conflicts between two groups the industry and theenvironmentalists over whether an indivisible resource e g an ancient tree should be harvested or preserved in a complete information war ofattrition the environmentalists willingness to blockade harvest attemptsmay control resource use as effectively as if they held property rights optimal government intervention will override this ability for somebenefit cost combinations but may augment it for other combinations introducing uncertainty about the environmentalists benefits results inextended disputes and consequent lack of efficiency governmentintervention for welfare reasons generally reduces these efficiencylosses

on the endogeneity of resource comanagement theory and evidence from indonesia we examine theoretically the emergence of participatory comanagement agreements that share between state and user the management of resources and the benefits from use going beyond user user interactions our state user model addresses a critical question when will comanagement arise in order to consider the right baseline for evaluating comanagement s forest and welfare impacts we then compare our model s hypotheses concerning de facto rights negotiated agreements and transfers all endogenous with community level data including observed agreements in a protected indonesian forest these unique data could refute the model despite being limited but instead offer support

context dependent biodiversity conservation management regimes theory and simulations ecosystem degradation hasmotivated a search for successful conservation approaches the perceived failure of state directed protected areas in the tropics has prompted experimentation with community management and co management strategies numerous case studies suggest that none of these are effective universally there exists however little analytical or empirical work to identify under what conditions one arrangement will be more effective than another this paper develops a model of statedependent equilibrium conservation management design that identifies the comparative advantage of different managers in the interest of appropriately locating authority for conservation tasks as a function of prevailing biophysical economic and sociopolitical conditions

property rights and liability for deforestation under redd implications for permanence in policy design reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation redd is critical in efforts to mitigate the effects of anthropogenic climate change despite uncertainty about the exact form of a future international redd system redd carbon property rights would need to be created and allocated with liability assigned for the potential loss of climate benefits in the event of carbon reversal from deforestation this commentary explores the links between forest property rights and liability to different redd policy options and their implications for permanence should national governments retain liability for permanence then project level activities that have individually assigned redd carbon rights may have a higher risk of carbon reversal than policies where rights are assigned to the state knowledge of pre existing forest rights is necessary for some policies implemented with government assigned redd rights in order to compensate for potential income losses from policy implementation

for better or for worse local impacts of the decentralization of indonesia s forest sector this paper quantifies the local impacts of mechanized logging on forest dependent communities in indonesia before and after decentralization a conceptual framework incorporates financial social enforcement rent seeking and environmental impacts using data from 60 communities in east kalimantan the empirical results suggest that significantly more households received financial and in kind benefits after decentralization compared to before many communities engaged in self enforcement activities against firms both before and after decentralization post decentralization a significantly higher proportion of households perceived community forest ownership there were few significant differences in perceived environmental impacts little evidence exists of a post decentralization trade off between environmental and financial contractual provisions

a markov regime switching approach for hedging energy commodities abstract this paper estimates constant and dynamic hedge ratios in the new york mercantile exchange oil futures markets and examines their hedging performance we also introduce a markov regime switching vector error correction model with garch error structure this specification links the concept of disequilibrium with that of uncertainty as measured by the conditional second moments across high and low volatility regimes overall in and out of sample tests indicate that state dependent hedge ratios are able to provide significant reduction in portfolio risk

structural breaks and diversification the impact of the 1997 asian financial crisis on the integration of asia pacific real estate markets abstract currently there exists relatively little research on the influence that the 1997 asian financial crisis has had upon capital flows within the property market and the associated long run implications of it this paper examines the impact that the crisis has had upon the integration and dynamic links between a number of asia pacific real estate markets the results show that asia pacific property markets are integrated despite a structural shift occurring at the time of the crisis these results are a particularly important finding for fund managers concerned with the impact of globalization on the performance of their real estate portfolios showing that in the asia pacific region diversification benefits are actually less than that suggested by an analysis incorrectly ignoring the crisis

macroeconomic shocks and stock market returns the case of korea abstractthis study examines the effects of macroeconomic shocks on key macro variables including stock market returns in korea using the structural vector autoregression svar model we suggest a three variable svar model incorporating inflation output growth and stock returns we adopt a nonzero z ratio restriction for the long run identifying assumption to allow for economically meaningful relationships among variables while our results support the negative positive relation of demand supply shocks to stock returns we also find that demand shocks influence stock market variance more significantly than supply shocks do the sub period analysis finds that global market fluctuations during the global financial crisis have relatively little effect on korean stock market performance we also examine a generalized five variable model that includes the foreign exchange rate and interest rate confirming the results from the three variable case

community industry contracting over natural resource use in a context of weak property rights the case of indonesia decentralization in indonesia has resulted in an increased influence of local communities over the terms of logging agreements with timber companies the outcomes of such community company negotiations vary significantly across communities what are the conditions that cause this variation and how can the outcomes be more effectively and efficiently influenced by third party actors such as the local government or ngos this paper addresses these questions by developing a game theoretic model to illustrate the strategic interactions between communities and companies the model allows for endogeneity of de facto property rights and bargaining positions we show that third party actions to improve the community s bargaining position by raising its reservation utility may result in an increase in the area logged and thereby harm the environment our results indicate that the strategy of intervention matters in particular strategies that raise the sensitivity of interventions to local logging threats are likely to be more cost effective in supporting communities and reducing forest degradation than more indiscriminatory strategies the model will be relevant to other situations where communities negotiate contracts over natural resource use with outside actors in a context of weak property rights a situation increasingly observed in other developing countries

exchange rate regimes in the modern era fixed floating and flaky this paper provides a selective survey of the incidence causes and consequences of a country s choice of its exchange rate regime i begin with a critical review of michael klein and jay c shambaugh s 2010 book exchange rate regimes in the modern era and then proceed to provide an alternative overview of what the economics profession knows and needs to know about exchange rate regimes while a fixed exchange rate with capital mobility is a well defined monetary regime floating is not thus it is unclear whether it is theoretically sensible to compare countries across exchange rate regimes this comparison is quite difficult to make empirically it is often hard to figure out what the exchange rate regime of a country is in practice since there are multiple conflicting regime classifications more importantly similar countries choose radically different exchange rate regimes without substantive consequences for macroeconomic outcomes like output growth and inflation that is the profession knows surprisingly little about either the causes or consequences of national choices of exchange rate regimes but since the consequences of these choices are small understanding their causes is of only academic interest jel e52 f33

the political economy of wildlife exploitation in this paper we analyze the exploitation of wildlife in a third world context in the model there are two agents an agency managing a habitat area of fixed size and a group of peasants the agency managing the habitat area has the legal right to exploit the wildlife while the local people hunt illegally introducing the concept of relative harvesting dominance we demonstrate that the stock utilization depends crucially on the prevailing economic and ecological conditions it is also shown that the existing property rights regime appears in different forms depending on these conditions

transmission of shocks across global real estate and equity markets an examination of the 2007 2008 housing crisis this study analyses the impact of the 2007 2008 u s financial crisis on the structure of interdependence among several major global real estate and equity markets moreover it performs a step by

how resilient and countercyclical were emerging economies to the global financial crisis during the crises of the 1990s emerging economies usually lacked the policy tools to deal with external shocks that were available to advanced economies worldwide turbulent episodes found most emerging economies unable to perform countercyclical policies and in many cases their own vulnerabilities and poor institutional frameworks amplified negative external shocks leading to sharper recessions this paper shows that the 2008 2009 global financial crisis represents a structural break in the way emerging economies conduct their policies with more countercyclical policies pursued before and during the global crisis moreover breaking with the past emerging economies did not fall more than developed economies during the global financial crisis thus becoming more similar to developed economies the resilience of emerging economies during the 2008 2009 crisis might be partly attributed to a combination of sounder macroeconomic and financial policy frameworks with a shift towards safer domestic and international financial stances

fiscal and monetary policies and the cost of sudden stops abstract this article investigates the effects of monetary and fiscal policies on output growth during sudden stop balance of payments crisis in emerging markets and developing countries sudden stops in capital flows and subsequent deep recessions are a frequent occurrence in these countries but there is no professional consensus and little systematic empirical evidence shedding light on the macroeconomic policy mix most likely to limit output losses during these episodes to address this issue we investigate 83 sudden stop crisis in 66 countries using a baseline empirical model to control for the various determinants of output losses during sudden stops we measure the marginal effects of policy on output losses and find strong evidence that monetary tightening rise in the discount rate or unsterilized rise in international reserves and discretionary fiscal contraction are significantly correlated with larger output losses following a sudden stop fiscal expansion is associated with smaller output losses following a sudden stop but monetary expansion has no discernable effect the macroeconomic policy mix associated with the least output loss during a sudden stop financial crisis is a discretionary fiscal expansion combined with a neutral monetary policy

the integration of direct real estate and stock markets in asia currently there exists relatively little research investigating the long term association between stock and direct real estate markets using appropriate transaction based property indices this study focuses on the relationship between stock and direct real estate markets in nine asian countries from the period 1980 to 2012 through both linear and nonlinear cointegration techniques we find empirical evidence of linear cointegration of stock and property markets in taiwan fractional cointegration in singapore and hong kong and no evidence of cointegration in china japan thailand malaysia indonesia and south korea it is concluded that segmentation of property markets from stock markets does not appear to be linked to the differences in the maturity of national financial markets and that the differing degrees of integration across asia may instead be reflective of a range of factors impacting upon the underlying economic structures in each country

the modern history of exchange rate arrangements a reinterpretation we develop a novel system of reclassifying historical exchange rate regimes one key difference between our study and previous classifications is that we employ monthly data on market determined parallel exchange rates going back to 1946 for 153 countries our approach differs from the imf official classification which we show to be only a little better than random it also differs radically from all previous attempts at historical reclassification our classification points to a rethinking of economic performance under alternative exchange rate regimes indeed the breakup of bretton woods had less impact on exchange rate regimes than is popularly believed