emerging biofuels outlook of effects on u s grain oilseed and livestock markets projections of u s ethanol production and its impacts on planted acreage crop prices livestock production and prices trade and retail food costs are presented under the assumption that current tax credits and trade policies are maintained the projections were made using a multi product multi country deterministic partial equilibrium model the impacts of higher oil prices a drought combined with an ethanol mandate and removal of land from the conservation reserve program crp relative to baseline projections are also presented the results indicate that expanded u s ethanol production will cause long run crop prices to increase in response to higher feed costs livestock farmgate prices will increase enough to cover the feed cost increases retail meat egg and dairy prices will also increase if oil prices are permanently 10 per barrel higher than assumed in the baseline projections u s ethanol will expand significantly the magnitude of the expansion will depend on the future makeup of the u s automobile fleet if sufficient demand for e 85 from flex fuel vehicles is available corn based ethanol production is projected to increase to over 30 billion gallons per year with the higher oil prices the direct effect of higher feed costs is that u s food prices would increase by a minimum of 1 1 over baseline levels results of a model of a 1988 type drought combined with a large mandate for continued ethanol production show sharply higher crop prices a drop in livestock production and higher food prices corn exports would drop significantly and feed costs would rise wheat feed use would rise sharply taking additional land out of the crp would lower crop prices in the short run but because long run corn prices are determined by ethanol prices and not by corn acreage the long run impacts on commodity prices and food prices of a smaller crp are modest cellulosic ethanol from switchgrass and biodiesel from soybeans do not become economically viable in the corn belt under any of the scenarios this is so because high energy costs that increase the prices of biodiesel and switchgrass ethanol also increase the price of corn based ethanol so long as producers can choose between soybeans for biodiesel switchgrass for ethanol and corn for ethanol they will choose to grow corn cellulosic ethanol from corn stover does not enter into any scenario because of the high cost of collecting and transporting corn stover over the large distances required to supply a commercial sized ethanol facility

are health insurance markets competitive to gauge the competitiveness of the group health insurance industry i investigate whether health insurers charge higher premiums ceteris paribus to more profitable firms such direct price discrimination is feasible only in imperfectly competitive settings using a proprietary national database of health plans offered by a sample of large multisite firms from 1998 2005 i find firms with positive profit shocks subsequently face higher premium growth even for the same health plans moreover within a given firm those sites located in concentrated insurance markets experience the greatest premium increases the findings suggest health care insurers are exercising market power in an increasing number of geographic markets

competition among differentiated health plans under adverse selection market power and adverse selection are prevalent features of the market for pre paid health plans however most of the literature on adverse selection considers extreme cases either perfect competition or monopoly if instead health plans are horizontally differentiated then i profits derived from each low risk are higher than from each high risk and ii when the profits derived from each high risk are negative cross subsidization a health authority as informed as the health plans can implement a pareto improvement both local and global deviations from cross subsidization are addressed within a nash equilibrium framework

the causal effect of income on health evidence from german reunification we investigate whether there was a causal effect of income changes on the health satisfaction of east and west germans in the years following reunification our data source is the german socio economic panel gsoep between 1984 and 2002 and we fit a recently proposed fixed effects ordinal estimator to our health measures and use a causal decomposition technique to account for panel attrition we find evidence of a significant positive effect of income changes on health satisfaction but the quantitative size of this effect is small this is the case with respect to current income and a measure of permanent income

competition for land in the global bioeconomy the global land use implications of biofuel expansion have received considerable attention in the literature over the past decade model based estimates of the emissions from cropland expansion have been used to assess the environmental impacts of biofuel policies and integrated assessment models have estimated the potential for biofuels to contribute to greenhouse gas ghg abatement over the coming century all of these studies feature explicitly or implicitly competition between biofuel feed stocks and other land uses however the economic mechanisms governing this competition as well as the contribution of biofuels to global land use change have not received the close scrutiny that they deserve the purpose of this article is to offer a deeper look at these factors we begin with a comparative static analysis which assesses the impact of exogenously specified forecasts of biofuel expansion over the period 2006 2035 global land use change is decomposed according to the three key margins of economic response extensive supply intensive supply and demand under the international energy agency s new policies scenario biofuels account for nearly one fifth of global land use change over the 2006 2035 period the article also offers a comparative dynamic analysis which determines the optimal path for first and second generation biofuels over the course of the entire 21st century in the absence of ghg regulation the welfare maximizing path for global land use in the face of 3 annual growth in oil prices allocates 225 mha to biofuel feed stocks by 2100 with the associated biofuels accounting for about 30 of global liquid fuel consumption this area expansion is somewhat diminished by expected climate change impacts on agriculture while it is significantly increased by an aggressive ghg emissions target and by advances in conversion efficiency of second generation biofuels jel classifications q11 q15 q24 q42 q54

learning in expectation formation with applications to cattle and beef exports the paper briefly considers problems associated with rational expectations and formulates a more general model which allows for situations where economic agents do not immediately arrive at a fully rational solution it incorporates a learning mechanism whereby agents can provisionally adopt hypothetically derived expectations as a basis for comparison with the actual outturns utilizing the resultant past expectational errors as indicators of the likelihood of prospective future outcomes agents make explicit allowance a rational solution thus in situations where complete information is not freely available rationality would be approximated over time by means of a dynamic learning process which is founded on a firm empirical approach this essential empiricism requires that the problem be examined on the basis of direct observation of applied situations therefore the method is implemented and analysed with reference to irish foreign trade in fat cattle carcase and processed beef simultaneous equati

selection in insurance markets theory and empirics in pictures government intervention in insurance markets is ubiquitous and the theoretical basis for such intervention based on classic work from the 1970s has been the problem of adverse selection over the last decade empirical work on selection in insurance markets has gained considerable momentum this research finds that adverse selection exists in some insurance markets but not in others and it has uncovered examples of markets that exhibit advantageous selection a phenomenon not considered by the original theory and one that has different consequences for equilibrium insurance allocation and optimal public policy than the classical case of adverse selection advantageous selection arises when the individuals who are willing to pay the most for insurance are those who are the most risk averse and so have the lowest expected cost indeed it is natural to think that in many instances individuals who value insurance more may also take action to lower their expected costs drive more carefully invest in preventive health care and so on researchers have taken steps toward estimating the welfare consequences of detected selection and of potential public policy interventions in this essay we present a graphical framework for analyzing both theoretical and empirical work on selection in insurance markets this graphical approach provides both a useful and intuitive depiction of the basic theory of selection and its implications for welfare and public policy as well as a lens through which one can understand the ideas and limitations of existing empirical work on this topic

public attitudes toward political and technological options for biofuels abstract this paper explores detailed public attitudes regarding the expanding range of biofuels technologies and policy options subjects from 34 in depth focus groups in central indiana were fairly knowledgeable about biofuels technologies but uninformed about biofuels policies despite being from a state where biofuels are a salient political issue a narrow majority was supportive of biofuels in general but expressed greater enthusiasm about second generation biofuels subject beliefs about biofuels economic and environmental impacts were most important in shaping these opinions rather than concerns about energy independence or other issues in terms of policy options subjects were most supportive of an alternative fuels standard and least supportive of a fixed subsidy and a cap and trade policy in contrast to arguments about technologies participants primarily framed their attitudes toward policies in terms of fairness although discussion did not substantially change aggregate preferences for most policies it did increase support significantly for at least one policy proposal a variable subsidy for ethanol it is particularly noteworthy that subjects generally did not support the most common biofuel technology corn based ethanol or the most prominent biofuels policy option the fixed subsidy despite residing in a state hosting a strong corn industry and staunch political advocates for both positions

preference heterogeneity and insurance markets explaining a puzzle of insurance the textbook approach to insurance markets emphasizes the role of private information about risk in determining who purchases insurance in the classic adverse selection model of michael rothschild and joseph stiglitz 1976 individu als with higher expected claims buy more insur ance than those with lower expected claims who may be out of the market entirely this basic prediction of asymmetric information models of a positive correlation between insurance cov erage and accident occurrence has been shown to be robust to a variety of extensions to the stan

implications of biofuels mandates for the global livestock industry a computable general equilibrium analysis the rapid growth of biofuels production particularly in the united states the eu and brazil has had important implications for the global livestock industry both by raising the cost of feed grains and oilseeds and by forcing onto the market a large supply of biofuel by products most of which end up in livestock feed rations this article investigates the impact of an expanding biofuels industry on the mix and location of global livestock production surprisingly we find that growth in the u s and eu biofuels industries results in larger absolute reductions in livestock production overseas than in those regions due to the international transmission of grains prices which is offset locally by the lower cost of by products we also find that nonruminant production is cut more than ruminant livestock because it is less able to use biofuel by products in its feed rations implementing biofuel mandates increases cropland area a large portion of which is estimated to come from reduced grazing lands the biofuel producing regions are expected to reduce their coarse grains exports and increase imports of oilseeds and vegetable oils while they increase their exports of processed feed materials in sum biofuel mandates have important consequences for livestock as well as crops with net effects influenced by the important role of by products in substituting for feedstuffs

health insurance without single crossing why healthy people have high coverage standard insurance models predict that people with high risks have high insurance coverage it is empirically documented that people with high income have lower health risks and are better insured we show that income differences between risk types lead to a violation of single crossing in an insurance model where people choose treatment intensity we analyse different market structures and show the following if insurers have market power the violation of single crossing caused by income differences and endogenous treatment choice can explain the empirically observed outcome our results do not rely on differences in risk aversion between types

impacts of us biodiesel mandates on world vegetable oil markets abstract in this paper we seek to understand the impact of expanded use of soybean oil biodiesel to address biofuel mandates on global vegetable oil markets and in particular on the demand for palm oil an open economy equilibrium model is derived to investigate the market effects of biodiesel expansion on related energy and vegetable oil markets the model is calibrated to represent the recent benchmark data in calendar year 2014 the simulation estimates suggest that the expanded use of soy oil for biodiesel in the us will have considerable impacts on world vegetable oil markets the majority of the vegetable oil replacement is likely to occur through substitution of palm oil under a wide range of plausible elasticity values on the demand for vegetable oil and the demand substitution between soy oils and palm oils

multiple dimensions of private information evidence from the long term care insurance market we demonstrate the existence of multiple dimensions of private information in the long term care insurance market two types of people purchase insurance individuals with private information that they are high risk and individuals with private information that they have strong taste for insurance ex post the former are higher risk than insurance companies expect while the latter are lower risk in aggregate those with more insurance are not higher risk our results demonstrate that insurance markets may suffer from asymmetric information even absent a positive correlation between insurance coverage and risk occurrence the results also suggest a general test for asymmetric information

advantageous selection in insurance markets this article reverses the standard conclusion that asymmetric information plus competition results in insufficient insurance provision risk tolerant individuals take few precautions and are disinclined to insure but they are drawn into a pooling equilibrium by the low premiums created by the presence of safer more risk averse types taxing insurance drives out the reckless clients allowing a strict pareto gain this result depends on administrative costs in processing claims and issuing policies as does the novel finding of a pure strategy partial pooling subgame perfect nash equilibrium in the insurance market copyright 2001 by the rand corporation

direct test of the rational expectation hypothesis in this paper we examine the possibility of testing the rational expectation hypothesis from simultaneous observations of some variables y and of their expectation y the test procedures are related to the sort of data available generally obtained from tendency surveys we distinguish between qualitative and quantitative data we define in each case the notion of rational expectation then it is possible to characterize the rational expectation hypothesis and to develop adapted test procedures

asymmetric information in insurance general testable implications several recent articles on empirical contract theory and insurance have tested for a positive correlation between coverage and ex post risk as predicted by standard models of pure adverse selection or pure moral hazard we show here that the positive correlationproperty can be extended to general setups competitive insurance markets and cases where risk aversion is public we test our results on a french dataset our tests confirm that the estimated correlation is positive they also suggest the presence of market power

optimal risk adjustment with adverse selection and spatial competition abstract paying insurers risk adjusted prices for covering different individuals can correct selection incentives and induce the market to provide optimal insurance policies to calculate the optimal risk adjusted prices we need to know a what the optimal policies are b how much they cost and c how competitive the market is we examine these issues in a model with spatial heterogeneity and adverse selection market equilibrium is characterized and delivery of the socially optimal insurance policies is possible as long as providers are paid risk adjusted fees for each individual they serve when the payment can be made on the basis of an individual s risk it should be sufficient to cover the expected cost of the socially optimal policy for that person plus a mark up if payments can be made only on the basis of a partially informative signal the optimal risk based payments should be adjusted according to a simple linear transformation identified by glazer and mcguire glazer j mcguire t 2000 optimal risk adjustment of health insurance premiums an application to managed care american economic review 90 4 1055 1071

a game theoretic foundation of competitive equilibria with adverse selection equilibria with adverse selection we construct a fully specified extensive form game that captures competitive markets with adverse selection in particular it allows firms to offer any finite set of contracts so that cross subsidization is not ruled out moreover firms can withdraw from the market after initial contract offers have been observed we show that a subgame perfect equilibrium always exists and that in fact when withdrawal is costless the set of subgame perfect equilibrium outcomes may correspond to the entire set of feasible contracts we then focus on robust equilibria that exist both when withdrawal costs are zero and when they are arbitrarily small but strictly positive we show that the miyazaki wilson contracts are the unique robust equilibrium outcome of our game this outcome is always constrained efficient and involves cross subsidization from low to high risk agents that is increasing in the share of low risks in the population under weak conditions on risk preferences

the complementarity between risk adjustment and community rating distorting market outcomes to facilitate redistribution abstract we analyze optimal risk adjustment in competitive health insurance markets when insurers have better information on their customers risk profiles than the sponsor of health insurance in the optimal scheme the sponsor uses reinsurance to screen insurers with bad and good risks in order to lower premiums for enrollees with high expected healthcare costs we then explore the effects of adding a community rating requirement to complement this risk adjustment scheme with community rating insurers have incentives to distort contract generosities to cherry pick low cost consumers however the reduced generosity for low cost types makes screening through reinsurance easier allowing the sponsor to redistribute more when costs for reinsurance are low or the sponsor s bias towards high cost consumers is high community rating dominates risk rating

dynamic interfeed substitution implications for incorporating ethanol byproducts into feedlot rations abstractthis study examines interfeed substitution with a focus on the relationship between distiller s dried grain with solubles ddgs and traditional feed grains the dynamic linear logit model is used for the empirical analysis of interfeed substitution the estimation results reveal that an increase in livestock and poultry outputs reduces the relative shares of corn and soybean meal to ddgs the estimated adjustment rate indicates that the demand for feed grains is responsive in the short run with about 37 of the long run response this study also finds that the demand for corn and soybean meal remains inelastic even in the long run showing the possibilities that livestock and poultry producers face high feed costs in response to an increase in the prices of corn and soybean meal the pressures on feed costs can be alleviated by the substitutable relationship between ddgs and corn but the substitution of ddgs for corn has a potential to provide livestock and poultry with different nutritional con

insurance self control and contract flexibility we study a competitive insurance market in which some consumers have too optimistic expectations regarding their future use of preventive measures when contracts are long term and inflexible such naive consumers would increase the costs of insurance for low risk consumers the competitive insurance market therefore offers flexible contracts that allow for switching between different tariffs sophisticated consumers choose a partial insurance tariff and remain low risks naive consumers choose the same tariff but later switch to full insurance and become high risks if there are sufficiently many naive consumers they pay a transfer to sophisticated consumers so that high risks subsidize low risks in contrast there are no such transfers when contracts are short term the model generates novel implications for the time frame of insurance contracts and insurance requirements

dynamic impacts of high oil prices on the bioethanol and feedstock markets this study investigates the impacts of high international oil prices on the bioethanol and corn markets in the us between 2007 and 2008 the prices of major grain crops had increased sharply reflecting the rise in international oil prices these dual price shocks had caused substantial harm to the global economy employing a structural vector auto regression model svar we analyze how increases in international oil prices could impact the prices of and demand for corn which is used as a major bioethanol feedstock in the us the results indicate that an increase in the oil price would increase bioethanol demand for corn and corn prices in the short run and that corn prices would stabilize in the long run as corn exports and feedstock demand for corn decline consequently policies supporting biofuels should encourage the use of bioethanol co products for feed and the development of marginal land to mitigate increases in the feedstock price

how market efficiency and the theory of storage link corn and ethanol markets this article uses the theories of market efficiency and supply of storage to develop a conceptual link between the corn and ethanol markets and explores statistical evidence for the link we propose that a long run no profit condition is established in distant futures markets for ethanol corn and natural gas and then use the theory of storage to define an inter temporal equilibrium among these prices the relationship shows that under certain conditions future price expectations will influence nearby futures prices and that a short term relationship between input and output prices will exist we demonstrate validity of the theory using a structural price model and then by means of time series techniques

optimal health insurance and provider payment the authors derive optimal insurance for patients and payment method for physicians when neither the input decided by the patient quantity of treatment nor the input decided by the physician effort are contractible the equilibrium in this third best regime may sometimes be second best in which both the physician input and the report of treatment are verifiable otherwise truthful reporting forces a third best characterized by provider prospective payment and suboptimal effort while consumers demand becomes excessive the authors also analyze how professional ethics alters the equilibrium finally collusive reporting mechanisms imply more stringent constraints while competition among physicians relaxes them copyright 1997 by american economic association

woody biomass processing potential economic impacts on rural regions abstract this paper estimates the economic and environmental impacts of introducing woody biomass processing wbp into a rural area in central appalachia wbp is among the most promising additions to energy generation portfolios for reducing import dependency while at the same time providing economic opportunity to stimulate regional economies especially in rural regions where economic development options are often limited we use an input output framework to assess wbp under three different pathways fast pyrolysis ethanol and coal biomass to liquids we find that the proposed wbp will increase regional output by 0 5 1 3 of gross regional product it will increase income by 17 32 to 51 31 million dollars each year and regional employment by 218 1 1127 8 jobs depending on the chosen pathway of these impacts the direct portions are 63 77 of the total impact depending on the chosen pathway the economic analysis and the results from the accompanying environmental assessment show that only the ethanol pathway has both economic and environmental benefits we conclude that because long run economic development strategies in rural regions are limited and negative impacts do not alter dramatically the regional environmental profile regional policymakers should include wbp among their development portfolio options

crop based biofuel production with acreage competition and uncertainty this paper examines the role of uncertain crude oil prices uncertain crop yields and competition for acreage on corn soybean and switchgrass prices under biofuel production mandates we find enforcement of the cellulosic mandate is costly in that it raises equilibrium prices of all three crops through competition for acreage however crude oil prices largely determine industry profitability even in the face of high crop prices further we find that uncertainty in crude oil prices and crop yields causes higher corn soybean and switchgrass prices compared to a baseline with no uncertainty

land allocation effects of the global ethanol surge predictions from the international fapri model we quantify the emergence of biofuel markets and its impact on world agriculture using the multimarket multicommodity international fapri model the model incorporates trade offs between biofuel feed and food production and consumption and international feedback effects of the emergence through world prices and trade we shock the model with exogenous changes in ethanol demand first in the united states then in brazil and other countries and compute shock multipliers for land allocation decisions for important crops and countries the brazilian ethanol expansion using sugarcane has fewer consequences on existing arable land allocation than the u s ethanol expansion does using corn feedstock

a game theoretic fundation of competitive quilibria with adverse selection we construct an extensive form game that captures competitive markets with adverse selection it allows firms to offer any finite set of contracts so that cross subsidization is not ruled out moreover firms can withdraw from the market after initial contract offers have been observed we show that a subgame perfect equilibrium always exists in fact when withdrawal is costless the set of equilibrium outcomes may correspond to the entire set of feasible contracts we then focus on robust equilibria that continue to exist for small withdrawal costs we show that the miyazaki wilson contracts are the unique robust equilibrium outcome

impacts of ethanol policy on corn prices a review and meta analysis of recent evidence abstract the literature on the impacts of biofuels on agricultural commodity prices is characterized by contradictory findings we review studies published between 2007 and 2014 that estimate the effects of u s corn ethanol policy on corn prices and find estimates ranging from nil to over 80 such divergent results make it difficult to assess the merits of alternative biofuel policies to bring more clarity to the issue and facilitate comparisons across studies we assemble a database of over 150 medium to long run estimates of the effect of corn ethanol production on corn prices from 29 published studies we first normalize corn price impacts by the change in corn ethanol volume to control for the large differences in ethanol quantities across scenarios we then conduct a meta analysis to identify the factors that drive the remaining variation in corn price impacts across studies in addition to ethanol volumes we find that modeling framework projection year inclusion of ethanol co products and biofuel production from other feedstocks explain much of the differences in price effects the results indicate that a one billion gallon expansion of the us corn ethanol mandate in the year 2015 would lead to a three to four percent increase in corn prices with smaller price changes projected in future years

a game theoretic foundation of competitive equilibria with adverse selection we construct an extensive form game that captures competitive markets with adverse selection it allows firms to offer any finite set of contracts so that cross subsidization is not ruled out moreover firms can withdraw from the market after initial contract offers have been observed we show that a subgame perfect equilibrium always exists in fact when withdrawal is costless the set of equilibrium outcomes may correspond to the entire set of feasible contracts we then focus on robust equilibria that continue to exist for small withdrawal costs we show that the miyazaki wilson contracts are the unique robust equilibrium outcome

basic versus supplementary health insurance moral hazard and adverse selection this paper introduces a tractable model of health insurance with both moral hazard and adverse selection we show that government sponsored universal basic insurance should cover treatments with the biggest adverse selection problems treatments not covered by basic insurance can be covered on the private supplementary insurance market surprisingly the cost effectiveness of a treatment does not affect its priority to be covered by basic insurance

competitive insurance markets with two unobservables i study a screening game in a competitive insurance market in which insurance customers differ with respect to both accident probability and degree of risk aversion it is shown that indifference curves of customers may cross twice thus the single crossing property does not hold when differences in risk aversion are sufficiently large firms cannot use policy deductibles to screen high risk customers types may be pooled in equilibrium or are separated by raising premiums above actuarially fair levels this leads to excessive entry of firms in equilibrium