consumer preference and willingness to pay for a renewable fuel standard rfs policy focusing on ex ante market analysis and segmentation abstract total energy consumption of oil in 2050 is expected to increase to 1 6 times its level in 2005 and greenhouse gas ghg emissions in the transportation sector will be second only to the electricity sector in order to reduce ghg emissions in transportation leading countries have started to implement renewable fuel standard rfs policies other countries such as korea have recently started implementing rfs policies in order to comply with the proposed global ghg reduction target however previous research did not consider the impact of rfs policy on consumer acceptance levels therefore this study analyzes consumer preferences and willingness to pay wtp for rfs to provide detailed policy strategies this study conducts additional analysis using market segmentation and sensitivity analysis the results indicate that consumers generally accept the cost of implementing an rfs policy if the cost falls between krw 101 78 liter usd 0 33 gal and krw 187 26 liter usd 0 60 gal in addition consumer wtp for implementing an rfs policy changes when the income exceeds krw 5 million usd 4229 1 in driver group and relatively lower income groups tend not to support rfs policies based on the results of this study we can suggest proper pricing policies for each income group and a public relations strategy to improve the level of policy acceptance

employer search and employment subsidies in this paper insights into the literature on employment subsidy evaluation and that on employer search are merged to explore uncharted territory the firm and job characteristics leading to deadweight loss in employment subsidy schemes a model is developed which integrates various arguments found in the existing employer search literature using a survey of dutch firms for 1999 the model predictions are confirmed the richness of the data set enables one to construct some measures of deadweight loss which are new to the existing literature it turns out that firms which experience low screening costs large firms firms that forego substantial production due to unfilled jobs vacancies for full time jobs and firms operating in slack labour market conditions cause significantly more deadweight loss

employers recruitment behaviour and vacancy duration an empirical analysis for the dutch labour market the functioning of labour markets from a demand side perspective is examined in particular the determinants of vacancy duration are studied in the context of a model of employers search behaviour a model for the choice of the recruitment strategy at the start of the search process and the corresponding recruitment duration is developed in which allowance is made for different patterns of duration dependence for each recruitment strategy this model is applied to data on employers search behaviour in the dutch labour market it is found that employers prefer advertisements as the first recruitment channel when applicants are required to have work experience moreover employers prefer to start searching via the labour exchange office when jobs in the secondary segment of the labour market have to be filled it is also found that when advertisements are used as the first recruitment strategy employers need some time to acquire a pool of applicants and to select candidates from this pool it is inte

marginal land for energy crops exploring definitions and embedded assumptions abstract the idea of using less productive or marginal land for energy crops is promoted as a way to overcome the previous land use controversies faced by biofuels it is argued that marginal land use would not compete with food production is widely available and would incur fewer environmental impacts this term is notoriously vague however as are the details of how marginal land use for energy crops would work in practice this paper explores definitions of the term marginal land in academic consultancy ngo government and industry documents in the uk it identifies three separate definitions of the term land unsuitable for food production ambiguous lower quality land and economically marginal land it probes these definitions further by exploring the technical normative and political assumptions embedded within them it finds that the first two definitions are normatively motivated this land should be used to overcome controversies and the latter definition is predictive this land is likely to be used it is important that the different advantages disadvantages and implications of the definitions are spelled out so definitions are not conflated to create unrealistic expectations about the role of marginal land in overcoming biofuels land use controversies

mismatch between unemployment and vacancies in the dutch labour market we analyse the importance of educational mismatch between vacancies and unemployment in the dutch labour market using unemployment and vacancy data by educational level we estimate a matching function which incorporates the effect of educational mismatch on the aggregate flow of filled vacancies using the estimated parameters we calculate how much of total unemployment can be attributed to educational mismatch the results indicate that educational mismatch is not an important determinant of unemployment in the netherlands moreover it shows a remarkable trend contrary to common belief the relative importance of mismatch appears to have strongly decreased since the end of the 1960s

estimating value at risk of crude oil price and its spillover effect using the ged garch approach estimation has been carried out using garch type models based on the generalized error distribution ged for both the extreme downside and upside value at risks var of returns in the wti and brent crude oil spot markets furthermore according to a new concept of granger causality in risk a kernel based test is proposed to detect extreme risk spillover effect between the two oil markets results of an empirical study indicate that the ged garch based var approach appears more effective than the well recognized hsaf i e historical simulation with arma forecasts moreover this approach is also more realistic and comprehensive than the standard normal distribution based var model that is commonly used results reveal that there is significant two way risk spillover effect between wti and brent markets supplementary study indicates that at the 99 confidence level when negative market news arises that brings about a slump in oil price return historical information on risk in the wti market helps to forecast the brent market conversely it is not the case when positive news occurs and returns rise historical information on risk in the two markets can facilitate forecasts of future extreme market risks for each other these results are valuable for anyone who needs evaluation and forecasts of the risk situation in international crude oil markets

young citizens knowledge and perceptions of bioenergy and future policy implications abstract in the past few years extensive discussions on bioenergy has been both positive and negative in europe the image of bioenergy appears to be low with lack of broad public support previous studies show that younger people are unsure about many issues surrounding renewable energy the aim of this study was to investigate the knowledge and perceptions of bioenergy among pupils in north karelia finland data drawn from 495 ninth grade students indicate that the majority of them lack in depth knowledge about different renewable energy sources including bioenergy only a small percentage has a high level of knowledge about bioenergy and the majority indicates critical perceptions of it statistically significant gender differences are not apparent girls appear to be more knowledgeable than boys results also show a clear urban and rural difference in perceptions of bioenergy perceptions of urban respondents being more positive than that of their rural counterparts developing collaboration between future bioenergy policies and bioenergy education for younger citizens is necessary for their engagement in critical debates on bioenergy

comparison of historically simulated var evidence from oil prices abstract cabedo and moya cabedo j d moya i 2003 estimating oil price value at risk using the historical simulation approach energy economics 25 239 253 find that arma with historical simulation delivers var forecasts that are superior to those from garch we compare the arma with historical simulation to the semi parametric garch model proposed by barone adesi et al barone adesi g giannopoulos k vosper l 1999 var without correlations for portfolios of derivative securities journal of futures markets 19 5 583 602 the results suggest that the semi parametric garch model generates var forecasts that are superior to the var forecasts from the arma with historical simulation this is due to the fact that garch captures volatility clustering our findings suggest that cabedo and moya s conclusion is mainly driven by the normal distributional assumption imposed on the future risk structure in the garch model

public attitudes toward political and technological options for biofuels abstract this paper explores detailed public attitudes regarding the expanding range of biofuels technologies and policy options subjects from 34 in depth focus groups in central indiana were fairly knowledgeable about biofuels technologies but uninformed about biofuels policies despite being from a state where biofuels are a salient political issue a narrow majority was supportive of biofuels in general but expressed greater enthusiasm about second generation biofuels subject beliefs about biofuels economic and environmental impacts were most important in shaping these opinions rather than concerns about energy independence or other issues in terms of policy options subjects were most supportive of an alternative fuels standard and least supportive of a fixed subsidy and a cap and trade policy in contrast to arguments about technologies participants primarily framed their attitudes toward policies in terms of fairness although discussion did not substantially change aggregate preferences for most policies it did increase support significantly for at least one policy proposal a variable subsidy for ethanol it is particularly noteworthy that subjects generally did not support the most common biofuel technology corn based ethanol or the most prominent biofuels policy option the fixed subsidy despite residing in a state hosting a strong corn industry and staunch political advocates for both positions

labeling renewable energies how the language surrounding biofuels can influence its public acceptance abstract despite growing interest and investments in biological fuels little is known of how the public form opinions toward this alternative fuel technology this study examines public opinion of biofuels by focusing on several factors that can be expected to influence citizens opinions about the issue first we tested the results of a framing experiment that was embedded within a public opinion survey this experiment explored how the public responded to the term biofuels as compared to the term ethanol our results suggest that overall respondents tended to react more favorably to the former as opposed to the latter term second we examined the impacts of sociodemographics on public attitudes toward biofuels we found that while sociodemographics did little to consistently explain attitudes toward biofuels there was clear evidence of ideological influences on attitudes with self identifying democrats showing more positive attitudes overall finally we explored the interaction between political partisanship and our experimental manipulation we found evidence that our wording manipulation differed based on the political party identification of our respondents with democrats fluctuating greatly in their assessments depending upon whether they were asked to evaluate biofuels or ethanol

unemployment insurance and male unemployment duration in canada a model of unemployment duration is estimated with weekly micro data on canadian men entitlement provisions in the unemployment insurance program and demand conditions are found to have a significant effect on the probability of leaving unemployment the probability of a worker leaving unemployment declines with the duration of unemployment holding unemployment insurance entitlement constant when entitlement is allowed to vary the probability of leaving first falls and then generally rises with unemployment duration these results are robust with respect to allowing for person specific unobserved heterogeneity and alternative specifications of duration dependence

long range dependence in an emerging stock market s sectors volatility modelling and var forecasting abstractthis study evaluates the sector risk of the qatar stock exchange qse a recently upgraded emerging stock market using value at risk models for the 7 january 2007 18 october 2015 period after providing evidence for true long memory in volatility using the log likelihood profile test of qu and splitting the sample and dth differentiation tests of shimotsu we compare the figarch hygarch and fiaparch models under normal student t and skewed t innovation distributions based on in and out of sample var forecasts the empirical results show that the skewed student t figarch model generates the most accurate prediction of one day var forecasts the policy implications for portfolio managers are also discussed

successful employer search an empirical analysis of vacancy duration using micro data this paper provides the first estimates of the determinants of the duration of employer search in the uk we model duration until a vacancy is either successfully filled or withdrawn from the market the econometric techniques deal with multiple vacancies and unobserved heterogeneity dependent risks using flexible and parametric baseline hazards the hazards to filling and withdrawing exhibit negative and positive duration dependence respectively implying that the conditional probability of successful employer search decreases with duration we also find that nonmanual vacancies are less likely to fill consistent with there being skill shortages in the sample period

unemployment and nonemployment heterogeneities in labor market states abstract the determination of how to distinguish between unemployment and nonparticipation is important and controversial the conventional approach employs a priori reasoning together with self reported current behavior this paper employs an evidence based classification of labor force status using information about the consequences of the behavior of the nonemployed we find that marginal attachment defined as desiring work although not searching is a distinct labor market state lying between those who do not desire work and the unemployed furthermore important heterogeneities exist within these nonemployment states two subsets of nonparticipants both engaged in waiting display behavior similar to the unemployed

public acceptance of biofuels abstract the public acceptance of biofuels in greece is examined in this work the analysis of 571 face to face interviews shows that 90 7 of the respondents believe that climatic changes are related to fossil fuel consumption while only 23 8 know the difference between biodiesel and bioethanol 76 1 believe that energy saving should precede the use of an alternative source of energy only 27 3 believe that priority must be given to biofuels over other renewable energy sources only 49 9 think that the use of biofuels can be an effective solution against climatic changes and 53 9 believe that the use of biofuels can be an effective solution for the energy problem finally 80 9 of the car owners are willing to use biofuels 44 8 are willing to pay the supplementary amount of 0 06 l of the fuel market price while the average amount reported as willing to pay was 0 079 l on top of the fuel market price furthermore eight models correlating the eight main responses with several socioeconomic variables are developed and analyzed those findings heave important policy implications related to the use and promotion of biofuels

oil and the macroeconomy since world war ii all but one of the u s recessions since world war ii have been preceded typically with a lag of around three fourths of a year by a dramatic increase in the price of crude petroleum this does not mean that oil shocks caused these recessions evidence is presented however that even over the period 1948 72 this correlation is statistically significant and nonspurious supporting the proposition that oil shocks were a contributing factor in at least some of the u s recessions prior to 1972 by extension energy price increases may account for much of post opec macroeconomic performance

employer recruitment strategies and the labor market outcomes of new hires i introduction employers and job seekers are brought together for potential matches through their recruitment and job search activities employers may post help wanted signs run newspaper advertisements or seek referrals from private employment agencies job seekers may speak with friends and relatives solicit the aid of the state employment agency or simply walk in and apply these recruitment and search activities help both parties acquire information about each other and the more information they obtain prior to entering an employment agreement the higher the likelihood of a good employment match the crucial role of information in the labor market has been recognized since stigler 1962 but despite a voluminous literature on job matching and organizational behavior in labor markets we know far less about employers recruitment strategies than about job seekers search strategies as granovetter 1995 notes while people are finding jobs employers are finding people to fill them and their behaviors strategies and purposes play a central but often neglected role in the process of matching people to jobs this imbalance in research effort is explained more by a dearth of adequate data describing employer recruitment behavior than by lack of scholarly interest indeed labor economists sociologists psychologists and human resource management specialists have spent the last half century exploiting the meager existing data sets in efforts to learn about employer recruitment behavior in this article i address several empirical questions concerning employer recruitment using the multi city study of urban inequality mcsui a large cross sectional survey of employers in four metropolitan areas of the united states that has not been exploited for a detailed analysis of the relationships among recruitment strategies starting wages and vacancy duration despite the richness of the data set for this purpose the mcsui data contain detailed information on firm and job characteristics and most important for the purpose of this article indicators of the recruitment methods these employers used when hiring the most recently hired worker the data allow a number of interesting questions to be addressed concerning the link between employer recruitment choices and starting wages vacancy duration and the skill levels of new hires because there has been relatively little empirical research done by labor economists on employer recruitment this work with a relatively large representative sample of employers should enhance our understanding of a number of basic questions i consider three of these first i present evidence describing which recruitment methods employers use and how these vary by firm characteristics vacancy characteristics and the skill requirements of jobs i estimate a multivariate probit model with a separate equation for each of 10 recruitment choices in addition to providing information about the relationship of each recruitment method with each of the covariates this method has the attractive feature of allowing for an analysis of the relationships among the unobserved determinants of recruitment choice to my knowledge this methodology is new to the recruitment literature second i present regression evidence showing how vacancy duration varies by recruitment choices some recruitment methods can be expected to be faster than others in generating job applicants however an employer must invest time in screening the applicant pool so the recruitment methods that generate applicants quickly do not necessarily fill vacancies quickly therefore the link between recruitment methods and vacancy durations is an empirical question third i present evidence concerning the relationship between starting wages and recruitment methods in particular i augment standard log wage specifications based on the human capital model with recruitment choices and find that the recruitment variables have explanatory power even in the presence of all of the usual controls

leverage effects and stochastic volatility in spot oil returns a bayesian approach with var and cvar applications abstract crude oil markets have been quite volatile and risky in the past few decades due to the large fluctuations of oil prices we contribute to the current debate by testing for the existence of the leverage effect when considering daily spot returns in the wti and brent crude oil markets and by studying the direct impact of the leverage effect on measures of risk such as var and cvar more specifically we model spot crude oil returns using stochastic volatility sv models with various distributions of the errors we find that the introduction of the leverage effect in the traditional sv model with normally distributed errors is capable of adequately estimating risk for speculative oil suppliers in both the wti and brent markets our results also show that financial regulators model choice both on the supply and on the demand side would not be affected by the introduction of leverage focusing instead on firm s internal risk management our results show that the introduction of leverage would be useful for firms who are on the demand side for oil who use var for risk management and who are particularly worried about the magnitude of the losses exceeding var while wanting to minimize the opportunity cost of capital using the same logic firms who are on the supply side would be better off not considering the leverage effect

an econometric analysis of reservation wages this paper describes an analysis of survey data on unemployed people who reported their asking wage and the wage they expected to earn we show that if agents behavior is described by the standard optimal job search model one can use these data to deduce structural parameters rather than estimate them and we report our deductions from two surveys 1 of british unemployed people

job matching and job competition are lower educated workers at the back of job queues abstract during the cyclical downturn of the 1980s unemployment in the netherlands increased substantially with unemployment rates of lower educated workers increasing more than those of higher educated workers a possible explanation of this phenomenon is job competition between workers with different levels of education another explanation of the diverging unemployment rates is that employers dismiss replaceable lower educated workers before irreplaceable higher educated workers in this paper we scrutinize the job competition explanation our results show that there only is job competition between unemployed workers with an academic and a higher vocational education there is no job competition at lower levels of education

from value at risk to stress testing the extreme value approach this article presents an application of extreme value theory to compute the value at risk of a market position in statistics extremes of a random process refer to the lowest observation the minimum and to the highest observation the maximum over a given time period extreme value theory gives some interesting results about the distribution of extreme returns in particular the limiting distribution of extreme returns observed over a long time period is largely independent of the distribution of returns itself in financial markets extreme price movements correspond to market corrections during ordinary periods and also to stock market crashes bond market collapses or foreign exchange crises during extraordinary periods an approach based on extreme values to compute the var thus covers market conditions ranging from the usual environment considered by the existing var methods to the financial crises which are the focus of stress testing univariate extreme value theory is used to compute the var of a fully aggregated position while multivariate extreme value theory is used to compute the var of a position decomposed on risk factors 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

does the public employment service affect search effort and outcomes in this paper we examine the disincentive effects of the public employment service on the search effort of unemployed workers and on their exit rate from unemployment for that purpose we specify a structural search model with fixed and variable costs of search in which unemployed workers select their optimal search intensity given the exogenous arrival rate of job contacts coming from the public employment agency because the theoretical effect of an increase in this exogenous job contact arrival rate on the structural exit rate from unemployment is ambiguous we estimate this model using individual unemployment duration data our results show that the exit rate from unemployment increases with the arrival rate of job contacts obtained by the public employment service especially for low educated and low skilled workers they also show that the search effort is more costly for low educated women and low skilled adult unemployed workers this last result suggests that a public employment agency that matches searchers and employers is beneficial in the sense that it saves searchers in terms of search costs they would otherwise bear

worker inflow outflow and churning linked employer employee data from finnish business sector is used in analysing worker turnover the data set is an unbalanced panel with over 219 000 observations in 1991 97 the churning excess worker turnover worker inflow and worker outflow rates are explained by plant and employee characteristics the probabilities of observing non zero churning inflow and outflow rates increase with plant size the magnitudes of the non zero churning and inflow rates depend positively on size but the magnitude of outflow rate depends negatively on size high wage plants have low turnover plants with large within plant variation in wages have high turnover average tenure of employees has a negative impact on turnover high plant employment growth increases churning and separation but reduces hiring in the next year also controlled are average age and education of employees shares of women and homeowners among employees foreign ownership ownership changes and regional unemployment

toward a theory of vacancies we attempt to further characterize the search strategies of the employer in the article we discuss how characteristics of the employer or conditions that the employer faces affect the optimal search strategies and the probability of filling a vacancy in each period semiparametric and parametric methods are used to estimate hazard rates of filling vacancies the results suggest that for the given sample of vacancies the general form of the hazard function is nonmonotonic additionally the results suggest that those employers who have advance notice of the vacancy may search longer than those employers who do not

is internet job search still ineffective using national longitudinal survey of youth nlsy97 data for 2005 8 we find that unemployed persons who look for work online are re employed about 25 faster than comparable workers who do not search online this finding contrasts with previous results for 1998 2001 and is robust to controls for cognitive test scores and detailed indicators of internet access internet job search ijs appears to be most effective in reducing unemployment durations when used to contact friends and relatives to send out resumes or fill out applications and also to look at advertisements we detect a weak positive relationship between ijs and wage growth between jobs over the past decade the internet has been credited for substantial reductions in search frictions in markets ranging from life insurance to apartment rentals brown and goolsbee 2002 kroft and pope 2010 in contrast studies of the internet s effects on labour market matching have been few in number and on balance find little or no evidence of a friction reducing effect for example kuhn and skuterud 2004 find that unemployed workers who look for work online have longer unemployment durations than comparable non internet searchers whereas kroft and pope 2010 find no evidence that the rapid expansion of craigslist as a job search tool has affected city level unemployment rates 1 at least on the surface these results seem puzzling in view of the dramatic expansion of online job search sites as well as the general decline in communication costs associated with the internet both of these changes should increase the arrival rate of matches between job searchers and vacancies thereby reducing search frictions in labour markets in this study we provide new evidence relevant to this puzzle of ineffective internet job search ijs using data on young us jobseekers during the period 2005 8 taken from the national longitudinal survey of youth nlsy97 our main result is that internet searchers unemployment durations are about 25 shorter than comparable workers who search offline only specifically after replicating kuhn and skuterud s 2004 estimate of a counterproductive effect of ijs using their current population survey cps data from 1998 2001 for this age group we show that this counterproductive effect is reversed in the more recent period in the same regression specification this reversal holds whether or not we control for a possible source of endogenous selection searchers scores on a widely used cognitive skills test that was not available in the earlier data we speculate that improvements in technology over this period ranging from better online job sites to network externalities associated with greater overall internet penetration might explain this change over time

extreme value theory and value at risk application to oil market recent increases in energy prices especially oil prices have become a principal concern for consumers corporations and governments most analysts believe that oil price fluctuations have considerable consequences on economic activity oil markets have become relatively free resulting in a high degree of oil price volatility and generating radical changes to world energy and oil industries as a result oil markets are naturally vulnerable to significant negative volatility an example of such a case is the oil embargo crisis of 1973 in this newly created climate protection against market risk has become a necessity value at risk var measures risk exposure at a given probability level and is very important for risk management appealing aspects of extreme value theory evt have made convincing arguments for its use in managing energy price risks in this paper we apply both unconditional and conditional evt models to forecast value at risk these models are compared to the performances of other well known modelling techniques such as garch historical simulation and filtered historical simulation both conditional evt and filtered historical simulation procedures offer a major improvement over the parametric methods furthermore garch 1 1 t model may provide equally good results as well as the combining of the two procedures

finding the right employee online determinants of internet recruitment in spanish firms this paper analyses the variation of recruitment strategies in spanish firms with special emphasis on the internet using data from the spanish labour trends survey for the period 2001 2011 we study the factors influencing the decision to use online recruitment and explore the differences between internet and eight traditional recruitment channels our results show that the adoption of the internet monotonically increases over the sample period when internet becomes more universal and even in periods with excess of applicants large firms operating in information intensive activities and located in regions more developed and with better infrastructures are more likely to search for new employees online we also find that internet and traditional recruitment methods follow different patterns especially when using personal referrals and public employment services our results suggest the presence of network externalities derived from the increase number of compatible online job seekers

do friends and relatives really help in getting a good job informal contacts are extensively used by both firms and workers to find jobs and fill vacancies the common wisdom in the economic literature is that jobs created through this channel are of better quality and pay higher wages than jobs created through formal methods this paper explores the empirical evidence for european countries using the european community household panel echp and discovers a large cross country as well as cross industry variation in the wage differentials between jobs found through informal and formal methods across countries and industries wage premiums and wage penalties to finding jobs through personal contacts are equally frequent this paper argues that such variation can be explained by looking at firms recruitment strategies in labour markets where employers invest largely in formal recruitment activities matches created through this channel are likely to be of average better quality than those created through informal networks a simple theoretical model is used to show that employers invest more in recruitment for high productivity jobs and for positions that require considerable training the empirical predictions of the theory are successfully tested using industry level data on recruitment costs

value at risk estimation of energy commodities a long memory garch evt approach abstract in this paper we evaluate value at risk var and expected shortfall es for crude oil and gasoline market we adopt three long memory models including figarch hygarch and fiaparch to forecast energy commodity volatility by capturing some volatility stylized fact such as long range memory heteroscedasticity asymmetry and fat tails then we consider extreme value theory which concentrates on the tail distribution rather than the entire distribution evt is considered as a potential framework for the separate treatment of tails of distributions which allows for asymmetry our results show that the fiaparch model with extreme value theory performs better in predicting the one day ahead var using the fitted long memory garch model and a simulation approach to estimate var for horizons over than one day backtesting results show that our approach still performs for lower estimation frequencies overall our findings confirm that taking into account long range memory asymmetry and fat tails in the behavior of energy commodity prices returns combined with filtering process such as evt are important in improving risk management assessments and hedging strategies in the high volatile energy market

fishing in different pools job search strategies and job finding success in canada in the early 1980s this article examines the job search methods of jobless workers and emphasizes sample selectivity in choice of job search strategies especially use of public employment agencies longitudinal data from the labour force survey of canada for 1981 1983 and 1986 indicate that job search methods change with the business cycle and that many people find jobs without any reported search the determinants of job search success also vary substantially over the business cycle implying a substantial social return to public employment agencies at the 1983 trough of the recession but no noticeable benefits when aggregate unemployment is relatively low

value at risk estimations of energy commodities via long memory asymmetry and fat tailed garch models abstract in this paper we evaluate the value at risk var and the expected shortfalls for some major crude oil and gas commodities for both short and long trading positions classical var estimations as well as riskmetrics and other extensions to cases considering for long range memory asymmetry and fat tail in energy markets volatility were conducted we computed the var for three arch garch type models including figarch fiaparch and hygarch these models were estimated in the presence of three alternative innovation s distributions normal student and skewed student our results show that considering for long range memory fat tails and asymmetry performs better in predicting a one day ahead var for both short and long trading positions moreover the fiaparch model outperforms the other models in the var s prediction these results present several potential implications for energy markets risk quantifications and hedging strategies

estimating oil price value at risk using the historical simulation approach abstract in this paper we propose using value at risk var for oil price risk quantification var provides an estimation for the maximum oil price change associated with a likelihood level and can be used for designing risk management strategies we analyse three var calculation methods the historical simulation standard approach the historical simulation with arma forecasts hsaf approach developed in this paper and the variance covariance method based on autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models forecasts the results obtained indicate that hsaf methodology provides a flexible var quantification which fits the continuous oil price movements well and provides an efficient risk quantification

the economic impact of shale gas extraction a review of existing studies abstract recent advances in drilling technology have allowed for the profitable extraction of natural gas from deep underground shale rock formations several reports sponsored by the gas industry have estimated the economic effects of the shale gas extraction on incomes employment and tax revenues none of these reports has been published in an economics journal and therefore have not been subjected to the peer review process yet these reports may be influential to the formation of public policy this commentary provides written reviews of several studies purporting to estimate the economic impact of gas extraction from shale beds due to questionable assumptions the economic impacts estimated in these reports are very likely overstated

informal job search and black youth unemployment in this paper i analyze how young black and white unemployed jobseekers use various methods of search and the employment outcomes which result from their use the focus is on distinguishing informal search methods i e friends and relatives or direct application without referral from more formal ones in analyzing racial differences the results show that the two informal methods of search account for about 90 of the difference in employment probabilities between white and black youth this also accounts for 57 71 of the difference in unemployment rates between the two furthermore most of these results reflect differences in the ability of these methods to generate job offers as opposed to differences in search effort or job acceptance rates however our ability to explain these differences through personal family and household characteristics was generally quite limited this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

extensive search intensive search and hiring costs new evidence on employer hiring activity this paper presents recent evidence on employer search to fill a position a 1982 employer survey sponsored by the national institute of education and the national center for research in vocational education provides the basis for analyzing employer search and hiring costs the paper examines the effects of such factors as employer size dismissal costs unionization on the job training adjustment costs capital and labor market conditions on intensive employer search extensive employer search and hiring costs intensive employer search is measured by the average number of hours the employer spends recruiting screening and interviewing per applicant extensive search is measured by the number of applicants seen per applicant interviewed and the number interviewed per employment

endogenous job contact networks we use the uk quarterly labour force survey to document the presence of two phenomena first a positive correlation between unemployment rate and the proportion of job seekers who use social networks to nd jobs network use second a non monotone relation between unemployment rate and the proportion of recently employed workers who found their job through friends or relatives network productivity this second relation is positive for low levels of unemployment rate while it becomes negative for high levels of unemployment rate existing models of social networks and labor market generally assume that social networks are exogenous this assumption implies a negative correlation between unemployment rate and network productivity we develop a model where social networks are used to collect job oers but workers decide strategically how much to invest in their network we show that equilibrium job contact networks are dense and more productive in transmitting information when labor market turnover is moderate while they are less productive and segmented into clusters for either high or low turnover the equilibrium response of job contact networks to changes in labor market conditions is sucient to generate

an explorative empirical analysis of the influence of labour flows on wage formation this study presents an explorative econometric analysis of the influence of labour market flows on wage formation it applies the vector cointegration and common trends methodology of johansen likelihood based inference in cointegrated vector autoregresssive models oup oxford 1995 according to this approach a combination of the flow of layoffs flow from employment to unemployment and the flow of filled vacancies successful matches appears to be an adequate alternative to the unemployment rate as indicator of labour market tightness in the wage equation for the netherlands

evaluating the dynamic performance of energy portfolios empirical evidence from the dea directional distance function abstract in recent years the complex global energy commodity market has led to increased uncertainty for energy investment returns and tremendous challenges for investors to design appropriate energy portfolios therefore we employ four popular portfolio methods to determine energy portfolios based on daily fossil fuel futures prices during 2006 2015 moreover we use the dea window analysis method and dea directional distance function to comprehensively evaluate the dynamic performance of these energy portfolios based on the efficiency perspective the empirical results indicate that first to increase investment returns the mean variance method that exclusively emphasizes the maximization of returns shows the best performance however in order to decrease the volatility and risk of investment returns the mean variance method that aims to resist risk more than make profits and the bootstrap historical simulation value at risk var method have the best performance second when the global financial crisis broke out in the second half of 2008 and energy markets experienced a sharp downturn in the second half of 2014 the dea efficiency of energy portfolios appeared relatively lower than those of their neighboring periods regardless of which portfolio method is employed finally the average dea efficiencies of energy portfolios are all higher than those of single energy investment throughout the sample period except when the equally weighted method and the information entropy comprehensive index method are used meanwhile the mean variance method that prefers profit making to risk resisting possesses the highest average dea efficiency among various methods concerned

local labor market impacts of energy boom bust boom in western canada abstract the impacts of energy price boom and bust are analyzed through the differential growth in employment and earnings between local labor markets with and without energy resources in western canada the estimated differentials attributed to the boom induced labor demand shocks show significant direct and indirect impacts on the earnings and employment within the energy extraction and other non energy local sectors respectively the local job multipliers indicate that job creation within the energy extraction sector leads to modest job creation within the non energy local sectors during boom periods for every ten energy extraction jobs created during a boom period approximately three construction jobs two retail jobs and four and a half service jobs are created

the friction cost method for measuring indirect costs of disease a new approach for estimating the indirect costs of disease which explicitly considers economic circumstances that limit production losses due to disease is presented the friction cost method for the netherlands the short term friction costs in 1990 amount to 1 5 2 5 of net national income nni depending on the extent to which short term absence from work induces production loss and costs the medium term macro economic consequences of absence from work and disability reduce nni by an additional 0 8 these estimates are considerably lower than estimates based on the traditional human capital approach but they better reflect the economic impact of illness

estimation of value at risk for energy commodities via fat tailed garch models the choice of an appropriate distribution for return innovations is important in var applications owing to its ability to directly affect the estimation quality of the required quantiles this study investigates the influence of fat tailed innovation process on the performance of one day ahead var estimates using three garch models garch n garch t and garch ht daily spot prices of five energy commodities wti crude oil brent crude oil heating oil 2 propane and new york harbor conventional gasoline regular are used to compare the accuracy and efficiency of the var models empirical results suggest that for asset returns that exhibit leptokurtic and fat tailed features the var estimates generated by the garch ht models have good accuracy at both low and high confidence levels additionally mrsb indicates that the garch ht model is more efficient than alternatives for most cases at high confidence levels these findings suggest that the heavy tailed distribution is more suitable for energy commodities particularly var calculation

information bilateral negotiations and worker recruitment this paper studies experimentally how firms choose between using a centralized market and bilateral negotiations to recruit new personnel in the market firms interact with several workers but do not have information about workers behavior in the past in the bilateral negotiations firms negotiate bilaterally with prospective workers and learn about workers performance in previous jobs we show that the interaction between social preferences the incompleteness of contracts and the existence of information about a worker s past performance provides an explanation for firms forgoing market opportunities and bilaterally negotiating with a worker we observe that approximately 30 of all job contracts were bilaterally negotiated when these contracts are incomplete as opposed to only 10 when contracts were complete the surplus from trade is higher when incomplete contracts can be bilaterally negotiated which can be attributed to the presence of information

public attitudes to biofuel use in aviation evidence from an emerging tourist market abstract aviation generates substantial carbon footprint which is projected to increase due to the continuous growth in international tourism especially in emerging markets this carbon footprint should be mitigated to bring the tourism industry towards its sustainability goals within a portfolio of prospective carbon mitigation measures biofuels represent a technological innovation which holds substantial potential to reduce the carbon significance of aviation the success of technological innovations often depends on public opinion the role of public opinion is particularly relevant in the aviation context where safety considerations of technological innovations may determine consumer choice focusing on poland an emerging tourist market in europe this study explored public opinion on biofuel use in aviation it found that public understanding of the perspectives of aviation biofuel technology including its safety is limited and needs to be reinforced public distrust in the national institutions of power and the industry sector representatives in poland calls for educational and public awareness raising campaigns to be delivered by the third sector organisations

bending the pipeline executive search and gender inequality in hiring for top management jobs we study the sources of women s underrepresentation in hiring for top management jobs by focusing on the context of executive search using data that include proprietary information on 10 970 individuals considered by a search firm we examine the sources of the low proportion of women placed in senior roles contrary to received wisdom we find limited evidence that demand side screeners strongly contribute to gender disadvantage in this setting what gender differences exist tend to play out at the start of the hiring process and are driven both by supply side and demand side actors once considered for a position women are no less likely than men to be hired though they are slightly less likely to be interviewed by the search firm our findings highlight the theoretical importance of disentangling candidates self steering behavior from the pipeline bending of hiring agents we discuss the implications of our results for understanding gender inequality at upper echelons of the labor market this p

the effects of age and unemployment percentage on the duration of unemployment evidence from aggregate data abstract in this paper models for the duration of unemployment are estimated using aggregate data on incomplete unemployment spells in particular the elasticities of the probability of leaving unemployment with respect to age and unemployment percentage are estimated special attention is paid to the time dependence of the re employment probability and to the effect of omitted regressors because models are fitted for male and female unemployed separately these groups can be compared we find that their position on the labour market is different

excess worker reallocation workers face a trade off between macroeconomic and individual incentives to work in different occupations industries namely between search frictions and personal comparative advantages workers endowed with heterogeneous multi dimensional skills search for jobs that require different skill combinations in equilibrium specialized individuals contact few selected types of vacancies where they are likely to be hired those with weak comparative advantages are seldom chosen among competing applicants thus seek any job type in a tight labour market comparative advantages dominate waiting costs offsetting labour mobility across industries occupations excess worker reallocation is lower and matches are more successful consistently with direct and indirect evidence

ethical and legal challenges in bioenergy governance coping with value disagreement and regulatory complexity the article focuses on the interplay between two factors giving rise to friction in bioenergy governance profound value disagreements e g the prioritizing of carbon concerns like worries over ghg emissions savings over non carbon related concerns and regulatory complexity in terms of regulatory measures and options we present ethical and legal analyses of the current stalemate on bioenergy governance in the eu using two illustrative cases liquid biofuels for transport and solid biomass based bioenergy the two cases disclose some similarities between these two factors but the remaining differences may partly explain or justify contrasting forms of governance while there seems to be no easy way in which the eu and national governments can deal with the multiple sustainability issues raised by bioenergy it is argued that failure to deal explicitly with the underlying value disagreements or to make apparent the regulatory complexity clouds the issue of how to move forward with governance of bioenergy we suggest that governance should be shaped with greater focus on the role of value disagreements and regulatory complexity there is a need for more openness and transparency about such factors and about the inherent trade offs in bioenergy governance

costs benefits and the malleability of public support for fracking abstract public opinion plays an important role in shaping the policy debate over hydraulic fracturing at both the state and national level however most americans report having little to no information about this controversial practice that has transformed the u s energy market employing an experiment embedded on a nationally representative survey we examine how citizens respond to arguments concerning the costs and benefits of fracking and incorporate them into their policy preferences arguments emphasizing the economic benefits of fracking bolster support for the technique however these gains are completely canceled if paired with a discussion of fracking s environmental costs additionally we find mixed evidence of partisan motivated reasoning in how this information is processed individuals whose partisan attachments and preexisting beliefs about global climate change conflict are particularly responsive to arguments about the benefits and costs of fracking our results have important implications for scholars and policymakers concerned with partisan polarization in public opinion toward energy and environmental policy

forecasting the var of crude oil market do alternative distributions help abstract accurate modeling of the empirical distribution of crude oil market returns is extremely important in estimating risk measures in addition to several commonly used distributions alternative distributions are explored in this study some of which account for the asymmetry and heavy tails simultaneously found in distributions and contain more tail parameters to separately depict the right and left tails when forecasting the value at risk var of crude oil markets during highly volatile periods seven backtests are also conducted to compare the var forecasting accuracy among different distributions the empirical results indicate that a highly volatile environment challenges the commonly used distributions and the four risk models based on commonly used distributions are rejected about 27 to 38 of the time the alternative distributions i e skewed general error distributions sged generalized hyperbolic skewed student t distributions ghst and generalized asymmetric student t gast distributions generally produce more accurate var measurement and gast gives the best measurement accuracy the empirical results imply that risk managers or policymakers should further consider more flexible distributions such as sged ghst or gast in particular when quantifying or managing the risk in turbulent market times

the minimum cvar strategy with semi parametric estimation in carbon market hedging problems abstract effective hedging strategies are important in reducing price volatility risk for business investors and companies participating into carbon markets in this paper we investigate the risk triggered by price fluctuation of european union allowance eua a semi parametric approach with cornish fisher expansion which approximates the quantile using the higher moments of the distribution is provided to estimate hedging ratios using cvar as risk objective function the approach can successfully capture the features of higher moments with the heavy tailed and higher kurtosis distribution of the eua returns which tends to be neglected the hedging performances of minimum cvar model we proposed and the conventional minimum variance model are evaluated and compared our empirical results show that minimum cvar hedging strategy generally outperforms the other in sample using all the effectiveness criteria while it is not consistent out of sample the proposed semi parametric minimum cvar strategy with cornish fisher expansion is advisable in carbon market hedging problems

the relationship between unemployment spells and reservation wages as a test of search theory the theory of stationary job search predicts that controlling for other factors that affect the probability of leaving unemployment duration and reservation wages are likely to be positively associated the paper tests this prediction for british cross sectional data from 1982 using an estimating equation implied by search theory simultaneity is crucial in the evaluation of this prediction with single equation and instrumental variable estimates differing markedly perhaps surprisingly given the extreme paucity of both job interviews and offers in the sample the main finding is that reservation wages play a significant role in the determination of duration

the concept of employability the concept of employability plays a crucial role in informing labour market policy in the uk the eu and beyond this paper analyses current and previous applications of the term and discusses its value as an exploratory concept and a framework for policy analysis it then traces the development of the concept discusses its role in current labour market and training strategies with particular reference to the uk and seeks to identify an approach to defining employability that can better inform labour market policy by transcending explanations of employment and unemployment that focus solely on either supply side or demand side factors although the literature offers a range of definitions of employability many policy makers have recently used the term as shorthand for the individual s employability skills and attributes it is argued that this narrow usage can lead to a hollowing out of the concept of employability the paper concludes by presenting a broad framework for analysing employability built around individual factors personal circumstances and external factors which acknowledges the importance of both supply and demand side factors

internet job search and unemployment durations after decades of stability the technologies used by workers to locate new jobs began to change rapidly with the diffusion of internet access in the late 1990 s which types of persons incorporated the internet into their job search strategy and did searching for work on line help these workers find new jobs faster we address these questions using measures of internet job search derived from the december 1998 and august 2000 cps computer and internet supplements matched with job search outcomes from subsequent cps files we find that internet searchers are positively selected on observables but negatively selected on unobservables a beneficial unemployment duration reducing causal effect of internet job search is consistent with our estimates only if negative selection on unobservables is especially strong in other words only if the population of on line resumes is strongly adversely selected

the conditional heteroscedasticity of the yen dollar exchange rate this paper examines the conditional heteroscedasticity of the yen dollar exchange rate a model is constructed by extending the asymmetric power autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model to a process that is fractionally integrated it is found that unlike the equity markets the appreciation and depreciation shocks of the yen against the dollar have similar effects on future volatilities although the results reject both the stable and the integrated models our analysis of the response coefficients of the past shocks and the application of the models to the estimation of the capital requirements for trading the currencies show that there are no substantial differences between the fractionally integrated models and the stable models 1998 john wiley sons ltd

the establishment level behavior of vacancies and hiring this paper is the first to study vacancies hires and vacancy yields at the establishment level in the job openings and labor turnover survey a large sample of u s employers to interpret the data we develop a simple model that identifies the flow of new vacancies and the job filling rate for vacant positions the job filling rate moves counter to aggregate employment but rises steeply with employer growth rates in the cross section it falls with employer size rises with worker turnover rates and varies by a factor of four across major industry groups we also develop evidence that the employer level hiring technology exhibits constant returns and that at the employer level and that employers rely heavily on other instruments in addition to vacancies as they vary hires we also develop evidence that effective recruiting intensity per vacancy varies over time accounting for about 41 of movements in aggregate hires in the 2007 to 2009 period our evidence and analysis provide useful inputs for assessing developing and calibrating theoretical models of search matching and hiring in the labor market

reported vs actual job search by unemployment insurance claimants this study compares self reported job search contacts of unemployment insurance recipients with independently verified job search contacts for the total sample reported contacts averaged 2 61 per week compared with actual contacts of only 1 78 per week nearly one fifth of the sample made no job contacts for the single weeks analyzed the separate equations estimated for reported and actual job contacts suggest that systematic misreporting may distort the conclusions particularly for the impact of unemployment insurance benefits on search intensity that would result from analyzing reported rather than actual contacts some implications of the findings for reported unemployment rates also are explored

the measurement of unemployment an empirical approach although the unemployment rate is one of the most widely cited and closely monitored economic statistics the definition and measurement of unemployment remain controversial an important issue is whether non employed persons who display a marginal attachment to the labor force for example those who are available for and desire work but are not searching for work should be classified as unemployed or non participants although this issue has been extensively debated it has never been tested empirically this paper carries out empirical tests of this and related hypotheses using a unique longitudinal data set from canada we find within the marginally attached a waiting group whose behavior indicates that they would be more appropriately classified as unemployed rather than out of the labor force the remainder of the marginally attached exhibit behavior between that of the unemployed and the balance of non participants suggesting that the desire for work among non searchers conveys substantial information about labor force attachment and future employment status our methods also apply to heterogeneity within the unemployed and we investigate behavioral variation linked to differences in job search methods and reasons for entry into unemployment although those using passive job search do exhibit behavior somewhat distinct from active searchers our results reject the practice of classifying passive job searchers as out of the labor force overall our results indicate that the non employed are very heterogeneous so that any single division into unemployment and out of the labor force is unlikely to fully capture the variety of degrees of labor force attachment this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

geographic proximity to coal plants and u s public support for extending the production tax credit abstract the production tax credit ptc is an important policy instrument through which the federal government promotes renewable energy development in the united states however the efficacy of the ptc is hampered by repeated expirations and short term extensions and by the general uncertainty surrounding its future status we examine the factors driving variation in public support for the extension of the ptc using a nationally representative internet based survey americans living near a coal fired power plant are significantly more likely to support extending the ptc than are their peers who are more insulated from the externalities of burning coal the evidence for this dynamic was strongest and most statistically significant among subjects experimentally primed to think about the adverse health effects of burning coal raising awareness of the public health ramifications of generating electricity from fossil fuels holds the potential to increase support for renewable energy policies among those living in proximity to coal plants even in a highly politicized policy debate

issues of social acceptance on biofuel development alongside with biofuel development social acceptance issues have been underestimated while social acceptance can emerge as powerful barrier for biofuel development this article provides discussion on social acceptance in biofuel context an acceptance framework based on life cycle biofuel production had been referred for a better understanding on social acceptance issues malaysia has been referred for the discussion as the country has faced with acceptance issue in their biofuel program the discussion point out different societal groups will demand specific consideration for either support or oppose biofuel this paper concludes that biofuel development will be constraint if social acceptance issues remain neglect

public opinion on energy development the interplay of issue framing top of mind associations and political ideology in this article we examine framing effects regarding unconventional oil and gas extraction using hydraulic fracturing or fracking an issue involving considerable controversy over potential impacts as well as terminology used to describe it specifically we explore how two commonly used terms to describe this issue fracking or shale oil or gas development serve as issue frames and influence public opinion extending existing research we suggest that these frames elicit different top of mind associations that reflect positive or negative connotations and resonate with people s political ideology these associations in turn help explain direct and indirect framing effects on support opposition as well as whether these effects differ by political ideology results of a split ballot national u s survey n 1000 reveal that people are more supportive of the energy extraction process when it is referred to as shale oil or gas development versus fracking and this relationship is mediated by greater perceptions of benefit versus risk political ideology did not moderate these effects further analysis suggests that these findings are partly explained by the tendency to associate fracking more with negative thoughts and impacts and shale oil or gas development more with positive thoughts and impacts however these associations also did not vary by political ideology we discuss implications for communicating risk regarding energy development

cyclical variation in vacancy durations and vacancy flows an empirical analysis abstract this paper presents an empirical analysis of vacancy durations and vacancy flows in the netherlands over the years 1980 1988 we distinguish vacancies according to required occupation and educational levels we derive estimates of average vacancy durations and we use these to derive estimates of vacancy flows we find that vacancy durations generally increase with the required educational level moreover vacancy flows tend to be more responsive to the business cycle at lower educational levels while vacancy durations are more responsive at higher educational levels the number of vacancies generated by employers has not decreased during the recession in the early 80s which points to a dominant role of the supply of applicants in explaining the cyclical pattern of vacancy durations

value at risk for long and short trading positions in this paper we model value at risk var for daily stock index returns using a collection of parametric models of the arch family based on the skewed student distribution we show that models that rely on a symmetric density distribution for the error term underperform with respect to skewed density models when the left and right tails of the distribution of returns must be modelled thus var for traders having both long and short positions is not adequately modelled using usual normal or student distributions we suggest using an aparch model based on the skewed student distribution to fully take into account the fat left and right tails of the returns distribution this allows for an adequate modelling of large returns defined on long and short trading positions the performances of all models are assessed on daily data for the cac40 dax nasdaq nikkei and smi stock indexes we also compute the expected short fall and the average multiple of tail event to risk measure for the new model

caviar conditional autoregressive value at risk by regression quantiles value at risk var has become the standard measure of market risk employed by financial institutions for both internal and regulatory purposes var is defined as the value that a portfolio will lose with a given probability over a certain time horizon usually one or ten days despite its conceptual simplicity its measurement is a very challenging statistical problem and none of the methodologies developed so far give satisfactory solutions interpreting the var as the quantile of future portfolio values conditional on current information we propose a new approach to quantile estimation which does not require any of the extreme assumptions invoked by existing methodologies such as normality or i i d returns the conditional autoregressive value at risk or caviar model moves the focus of attention from the distribution of returns directly to the behavior of the quantile we specify the evolution of the quantile over time using a special type of autoregressive process and use the regression quantile framework introduced by koenker and bassett to determine the unknown parameters since the objective function is not differentiable we use a differential evolutionary genetic algorithm for the numerical optimization utilizing the criterion that each period the probability of exceeding the var must be independent of all the past information we introduce a new test of model adequacy the dynamic quantile test applications to simulated and real data provide empirical support to this methodology and illustrate the ability of these algorithms to adapt to new risk environments