spatial competition in the network television industry we present an empirical study of spatial competition and a methodology to estimate demand for products with unobservable characteristics using panel data we estimate a discrete choice model with latent product attributes and unobserved heterogeneous consumer preferences our application of the methodology to the network television industry yields estimates that are consistent with experts views given our estimates we compute nash equilibria of a product location game and find that firms observed strategies such as the degree of product differentiation are generally optimal discrepancies between actual and optimal strategies reflect the networks adherence to rules of thumb and possible bounded rationality behavior copyright 2001 by the rand corporation

financial mechanism and enforceability of international environmental agreements we examine how international coordination among countries generates a trend towards establishing an international institution for the provision of global public goods in the present model the forces creating international agreement are a politician s motive for re election and a financial mechanism for compliance if a politician expects another politician in a neighboring country to signal his good performance to his citizen by participating in the agreement and is aware that his ex post deviation will be deterred by the financial mechanism he too decides to participate in the agreement which then corrects externality problems

payment card rewards programs and consumer payment choice abstract by using a unique data set that contains detailed information about consumer payment choice and consumers attitudes toward each payment method we estimate the effects of payment card rewards on consumer choice of payment methods our approach allows us to control for consumer heterogeneity we find the effects of rewards to be statistically significant across five retail types our policy experiments suggest that for the sub population who hold both credit and debit cards removing rewards would increase their share of paper based payment methods i e cash and checks measured in terms of in store transactions by no more than 4 percentage points

co operation and unilateral commitment in the presence of global environmental problems this paper focuses on the link between group co operation and unilateral commitment of some countries in the presence of global environmental problems we show that in case of a failure of negotiation some countries can decide to commit unilaterally and reduce their emissions we call this behaviour precautionary commitment absence of international agreement does not mean global defection from the environmental issue we also show that the emergence of a non co ordinated global co operation can result from a strategic action from the members of the coalition the insiders of the coalition create an incentive for the non members to reduce without co ordinating their emissions

short run needs and long term goals a dynamic model of thirst management beverage consumption occurs many times a day in response to short run needs that fluctuate we develop a model in which consumers are heterogeneous in self regulating consumption by balancing short run needs e g hydration and mood with long term goals e g health the model has two novel features 1 utility depends on the match between occasion specific needs and product attributes and 2 dynamics of consumption and stockpiling are at the level of product attributes we estimate the model using unique intraday beverage consumption activity and psychological needs data we find that only a third of individuals do not self regulate of the two thirds who self regulate over 40 self regulate adaptively based on past choice whereas 25 self regulate both adaptively and anticipating future needs our attribute need match model enables us to assess unmet demand for new products with attributes that match co occurring occasion specific needs specifically we find that a product satisfying a combination of health hydrating needs expands overall beverage consumption by as much as 5 our framework of modeling heterogeneity in self regulation by balancing short run needs with long term goals is more broadly applicable in contexts where situational needs vary and long term effects are gradual and hard to discern e g nutrition smoking and preventive health care

the changing climate of climate change economics climate change economics is now four decades old much of what it has achieved as a field of academic enquiry can be linked back to issues of integrated assessment modelling this paper shows that the standard approach is going through a major change in scope as of the last five years the conventional focus on determining optimal mitigation paths based on modelling the social cost of carbon is being enlarged to embrace promising new waves of research these are 1 the economics of insurance against catastrophic risks 2 the economics of trade and climate and 3 the economics of climate change adaptation the paper helps to bridge the gap between economics and climate policy by showing that the analytical toolkit of climate change economics has shifted towards more realistic representations of climatic policy

marginal tax reform externalities and income distribution the paper examines welfare improving and revenue neutral directions marginal policy reforms for an economy with nonidentical individuals and an externality that has a feedback effect on the consumption of taxed goods it considers three types of policy instruments the indirect taxes the uniform poll transfer and public abatement this extends the framework set up by ahmad and stern 1984 bovenberg and de mooij 1994 and schob 1996 the theoretical model is illustrated for a specific externality namely congestion caused by peak car transport

cost uncertainty and unilateral abatement unilateral abatement is sometimes advocated in order to set a good example that will make other countries follow the aim of this paper is to investigate whether existence of correlated cost uncertainty provides an incentive for a country to undertake unilateral abatement the theoretical model is driven by two main mechanisms first a learning effect as the follower country might reduce its risk premium as it can observe the cost level in the leader country second there is the public good effect i e the marginal benefit of abatement declines when abatement is a public good and other countries contribute to pollution reductions results shows that unilateral abatement would be efficient in reducing uncertainty about the unit costs of abatement if a country with low cost uncertainty would undertake abatement first while a country with initially high cost uncertainty would follow however countries may prefer to act simultaneously because of the larger uncertainties that are inherent in a sequential game

environmental taxation and unemployment some evidence on the double dividend hypothesis in europe abstract the employment double dividend hypothesis suggests that an appropriately designed fiscal reform in which emission charges are used to subsidize employers social security contributions may realize at least two relevant policy goals a better quality of the environment and at the same time an increase in employment levels this paper uses a newly developed econometric general equilibrium model for the european union as well as for each member country and presents simulation results up to the year 2010 of the effects of a european carbon tax the revenues from which are recycled to reduce employers social security contributions the results show that recycling carbon tax revenues may provide an employment double dividend only in the short run

carbon tax simulations using a household demand model abstract the main objective of this paper is to analyse consumer response and welfare effects due to changes in energy or environmental policy to achieve this objective we formulate and estimate an econometric model for non durable consumer demand in sweden that utilises micro and macro data in the simulations we consider two revenue neutral scenarios that both imply a doubling of the co2 tax one that returns the revenues in the form of a lower vat and one that subsidise public transport one conclusion from the simulations is that the co2 tax has regional distribution effects in the sense that household living in sparsely populated areas carry a larger share of the tax burden

valuation methods and policy making in environmental economics 1 valuation methods and policy making in environmental economics relevance and scope h folmer e van ierland part i the valuation of public goods 2 non market asset prices a comparison of three valuation approaches r c d arge j f shogren 3 valuing public goods in a risky world an experiment p o johansson 4 recreational values pareto optimality and timber supply p o johansson k g lofgren k g maler 5 estimating social benefits of environmental improvements from reduced acid rain deposition a contingent valuation survey s navrud part ii the valuation of health and life 6 benefits of reduced morbidity from air pollution control a survey m dickie s gerking 7 valuing a public good direct and indirect valuation approaches to the measurement of the benefits from air pollution abatement m shechter m kim l golan 8 environmental regulation and the valuation of life interindustry mobility and the market price of safety h w herzog jr a m schlottmann part iii cost benefit analysis 9 disequilibrium cost benefit rules an exposition and extension p o johansson k g lofgren 10 macroeconomic cost benefit analysis of environmental programmes a nentjes part iv aspects of policy making 11 benefit estimation for complex policies a randall j hoehn 12 the acid rain game k g maler index

conditional choice probability estimation of dynamic discrete choice models with unobserved heterogeneity we adapt the expectation maximization algorithm to incorporate unobserved heterogeneity into conditional choice probability ccp estimators of dynamic discrete choice problems the unobserved heterogeneity can be time invariant or follow a markov chain by developing a class of problems where the difference in future value terms depends on a few conditional choice probabilities we extend the class of dynamic optimization problems where ccp estimators provide a computationally cheap alternative to full solution methods monte carlo results confirm that our algorithms perform quite well both in terms of computational time and in the precision of the parameter estimates

a theory of rational addiction we develop a theory of rational addiction in which rationality means a consistent plan to maximize utility over time strong addiction to a good requires a big effect of past consumption of the good on current consumption such powerful complementarities cause some steady states to be unstable they are an important part of our analysis because even small deviations from the consumption at an unstable steady state can lead to large cumulative rises over time in addictive consumption or to rapid falls in consumption to abstention our theory also implies that cold turkey is used to end strong addictions that addicts often go on binges that addicts respond more to permanent than to temporary changes in prices of addictive goods and that anxiety and tensions can precipitate an addiction

the effects on competitiveness of coordinated versus unilateral fiscal policies reducing ghg emissions in the eu an assessment of a 10 reduction by 2010 using the e3me model abstract international competitiveness effects from coordinated and uncoordinated multilateral policies to reduce co 2 emissions from 11 member states of the eu by 2010 are compared with those from unilateral policies to achieve a 10 cut in each member state alone the paper presents the results from four projections using a large scale integrated regionalised e3 model of the eu estimated on time series cross section data 1968 93 with international trade treated as between each member state and a european transport and distribution network the 10 reduction is achieved by additional excise duties incremented every year 1999 to 2010 according to the carbon contents of fuels with special with special treatment of electricity taxed on outputs not inputs with revenues recycled via reductions in employers social security contributions multilateral coordinated policies require a common tax rate of 156 ecu per tonne carbon 1999 prices which rises to an average of 165 ecu per tonne with a wide range between regions when policies are uncoordinated all the tax shift projections show double dividends for emission reduction and employment gain for all member states unilateral policies do not show much carbon leakage but they show smaller gains for output and employment effects for price competitiveness appear to be small and mixed with serious losses appearing only for the netherlands and for metals and chemicals especially for unilateral action

the shopping basket a model for multicategory purchase incidence decisions consumers make multicategory decisions in a variety of contexts such as choice of multiple categories during a shopping trip or mail order purchasing the choice of one category may affect the selection of another category due to the complementary nature e g cake mix and cake frosting of the two categories alternatively two categories may co occur in a shopping basket not because they are complementary but because of similar purchase cycles e g beer and diapers or because of a host of other unobserved factors while complementarity gives managers some control over consumers buying behavior e g a change in the price of cake mix could change the purchase probability of cake frosting co occurrence or co incidence is less controllable other factors that may affect multi category choice may be unobserved household preferences or observed household demographics we also argue that not accounting for these three factors simultaneously could lead to erroneous inferences we then develop a conceptual framework that incorporates complementarity co incidence and heterogeneity both observed and unobserved as the factors that could lead to multi category choice we then translate this framework into a model of multi category choice our model is based on random utility theory and allows for simultaneous interdependent choice of many items this model the multivariate probit model is implemented in a hierarchical bayes framework the hierarchy consists of three levels the first level captures the choice of items for the shopping basket during a shopping trip the second level captures differences across households and the third level specifies the priors for the unknown parameters we generalize some recent advances in markov chain monte carlo methods in order to estimate the model specifically we use a substitution sampler which incorporates techniques such as the metropolis hit and run algorithm and the gibbs sampler the model is estimated on four categories cake mix cake frosting fabric detergent and fabric softener using multicategory panel data the results disentangle the complementarity and co incidence effects the complementarity results show that pricing and promotional changes in one category affect purchase incidence in related product categories in general the cross price and cross promotion effects are smaller than the own price and own promotions effects the cross effects are also asymmetric across pairs of categories i e related category pairs may be characterized as having a primary and a secondary category thus these results provide a more complete description of the effects of promotional changes by examining them both within and across categories the co incidence results show the extent of the relationship between categories that arises from uncontrollable and unobserved factors these results are useful since they provide insights into a general structure of dependence relationships across categories the heterogeneity results show that observed demographic factors such as family size influence the intrinsic category preference of households larger family sizes also tend to make households more price sensitive for both the primary and secondary categories we find that price sensitivities across categories are not highly correlated at the household level we also find some evidence that intrinsic preferences for cake mix and cake frosting are more closely related than preferences for fabric detergent and fabric softener we compare our model with a series of null models using both estimation and holdout samples we show that both complementarity and co incidence play a significant role inpredicting multicategory choice we also show how many single category models used in conjunction may not be good predictors of joint choice our results are likely to be of interest to retailers and manufacturers trying to optimize pricing and promotion strategies across many categories as well as in designing micromarketing strategies we illustrate some of these benefits by carrying out an analysis which shows that the true impact of complementarity and co incidence on profitability is significant in a retail setting our model can also be applied to other domains the combination of item interdependence and individual household level estimates may be of particular interest to database marketers in building customized cross selling strategies in the direct mail and financial service industries

informational benefits of international treaties international treaties allow a minister in one country to learn about the beliefs held by a minister in another country so allowing each to make better decisions when the net benefits of environmental policy are uncertain a country which participates in negotiating an environmental treaty or which supports strong environmental action thereby provides information to another country that such action can be worthwhile this dimension of international environmental agreements helps explain why countries negotiate treaties why these treaties often implement the nash non cooperative equilibrium why agreement to a treaty by a country deemed not particularly favorable to it can strengthen environmental action and why treaties may invoke a minimum participation clause the informational mechanism we discuss holds even if physical spillovers are absent and even if monitoring and enforcement are infeasible our approach can explain additional phenomena how requirements for approval by several bodies within a country can increase support for a policy and why simultaneous action can lead to better outcomes than sequential action

optimal regulation of eutrophying lakes fjords and rivers in the presence of threshold effects eutrophication is a biological process that has an unfavorable economic impact on the economic value of the water basins it affects eutrophication depends on thresholds effects and optimal policies for the regulation of eutrophication must take this into account such optimal policies are derived in the present article by utilizing a novel technique in optimal control theory this technique facilitates a proper analysis of deterministic stock pollutants with thresholds effects a topic it is argued has been poorly understood in the literature copyright 2001 oxford university press

modeling preference and structural heterogeneity in consumer choice consumer heterogeneity is fundamental to the marketing concept providing the basis for market segmentation targeting and positioning as well as micro marketing substantial effort has already been devoted to incorporate heterogeneity in brand choice models however most of the research in this area has focused on differences in preferences or tastes across consumers in contrast limited attention has been given to the possibility that consumers might also differ in the process they follow when making choices failure to account for either form of consumer heterogeneity may lead to misinterpretations of market structure and market segments as demonstrated in our simulations our main research objective in this paper is to account for these two forms of consumer heterogeneity with an integrated model we develop a choice model that simultaneously identities consumer segments on the basis of their preferences response to the marketing mix and choice processes this choice model is a finite mixture of nested logit models that incorporates the mixture of multinomial logits as a special case one main limitation of the now popular multinomial logit model is that choices by each consumer are assumed to be independent from irrelevant alternatives as a consequence that model predicts that within each segment a brand has exactly the same cross elasticities upon every competitor in contrast our mixture of nested logits allows for violations of the iia property within each segment leading to more realistic patterns of brand competition where one brand draws differently from each competitor depending on the choice process used by members of the segment in addition to the flexible combination of choice processes and preference structures our model also incorporates a latent class of hard core loyal consumers who are expected to always buy the same brand and are thus insensitive to price and promotions application of our model to household scanner data in the peanut butter category led to four types of segments a hard core loyals who do not respond to price and promotions b brand type for which the brand choice precedes the choice of product form creamy vs crunchy c form type members of these segments first choose the product form and then decide for the brand peter pan jif skippy or store brand d iia type members of these segments make choices according to the iia property our results showed a large 14 hard core loyal segment we also identified three segments of the brand type one segment of the form type and three iia type segments all these segments also differ in their preferences for brands and product forms one useful feature of our model is that it allows for cross elasticity structures with non proportional draw even when computed within a homogeneous segment most importantly the proposed model allows for more complex cross elasticity structures within a segment rather than constraining the elasticities to any particular pattern a priori these cross elasticity patterns imply distinct competitive environments within each segment leading to different price and promotion strategies in each segment for example a promotion by jif crunchy to a brand type segment is more likely to cannibalize on shares of the creamy form of the same brand than to draw from competitors if offered to a form type segment the same promotion is more likely to draw shares from competitors because of its finite mixture formulation our proposed model shares the same limitations of this category of models for example maximum likelihood estimation of the model may lead to local optima thus requiring a multiple number of random starts in order to increase the chances of finding the model that best fits to the data our model also requires specification of the number and type of segments in each particular application several criteria are available to select the number of segments however the specification of choice processes must be based on a heuristic procedure or on the basis of prior knowledge

climate policy negotiations with incomplete information we analyse bargaining over international climate agreements in a setting with incomplete information about abatement costs incomplete information is known as one of the key reasons why negotiations may fail more generally and why efficiency gains cannot be exploited we ask whether unilateral commitment to high abatement reduces or increases the likelihood for an efficient negotiation outcome we find that such commitment behaviour reduces the gains from global cooperation and that in turn this reduces the probability of reaching efficient international environmental agreements

estimating a continuous hedonic choice model with an application to demand for soft drinks using micro level scanner data i study empirically the consumer demand for soft drinks which is characterized by multiple product multiple unit purchasing behavior i develop a continuous hedonic choice model to investigate how consumers choose the best basket of products to satisfy various needs my model s embedded characteristics approach both helps to reduce the dimensionality problem in model estimation and generates flexible substitution patterns hence the model is useful in application to data with many product choices that are correlated with each other at the individual level the estimation results show that interesting substitutability and even a form of complementarity exist among soft drinks

marketing of vice goods a strategic analysis of the package size decision consumers are often unable to resist the temptation of overconsuming certain products such as cookies crackers soft drinks alcohol etc to control their consumption some consumers buy small packages or abstain from purchasing the product altogether other consumers however still purchase large packages and overconsume from a strategic perspective firms have the option of introducing small packages or only offering large packages we use the literature on hyperbolic discounting to model consumers self control problems and examine conditions under which firms will offer small packages to help consumers combat their self control problem and how this offering in turn affects prices profits consumer and social welfare our results show that introducing small packages can increase firms profits only when a small fraction of consumers have overconsumption problems or when small packages can bring in new customers additionally we find that competition can sometimes reduce the incentives for firms to introduce small packages this is particularly true when a large fraction of consumers is attracted to small packages we also find that firms profits can sometimes decrease if they produce healthier alternatives of their goods our analysis of consumer welfare reveals that small packages enhance consumer and social welfare even though they sometimes increase the consumption of vice goods

for a few cents more why supersize unhealthy food health care experts believe that increases in portion sizes served by food vendors contribute to the obesity epidemic this paper shows that food vendors can profit handsomely by using supersizing strategies where regular portion sizes are priced sufficiently high to discourage price conscious consumers from selecting them and the prices for enlarging food portions are set so low that these customers are tempted to order the larger portion sizes and overeat setting aside the impact of obesity on health care costs we show that using supersizing to steer customers toward consuming excessive amounts of food can destroy value from a social perspective thus this social value destruction trap adds another justification for pressuring food vendors to reduce supersizing for unhealthy food as a public policy response we consider how moderating policies may counter these effects through measures designed specifically to encourage eating in moderation by applying supersizing bans taxes and warnings

mindless eating and healthy heuristics for the irrational food choice decisions are not the same as intake volume decisions the former determine what we eat soup or salad the latter determine how much we eat half of the bowl or all of it large amounts of money time and intelligence have been invested in understanding the physiological mechanisms that influence food choice james o hill forthcoming much less has been invested in understanding how and why our environment influences food consumption volume yet environmental factors such as package size plate shape lighting variety or the presence of others affect our food consumption volume far more than we realize wansink 2006 whereas people can acknowledge that environmental factors influence others they wrongly believe they are unaffected perhaps they are influenced at a basic level of which they are not aware a better understanding of these drivers of consumption volume will have immediate implications for research policy and personal interventions there are three objectives of this paper 1 explain why environmental factors may unknowingly influence food consumption 2 identify resulting myths that may lead to is specified models or misguided policy recommendations and 3 offer clear direction for future research policy and personal dietary efforts

analysing gasoline demand elasticities a survey this paper is a survey of studies on gasoline demand although there are very many dxerent studies in this eld which sometimes appear to arrive at contradictory results we find that with proper stratification of studies by model and data type much of the contict turns to consensus in this survey we classtfy studies by data type and by ten d erent categories of model and with the exception of estimates on seasonal data which tend to be unstable and of certain inappropriate model formulations we find a fair degree of agreement concerning average short run and even long run income and price elasticities

household transport demand in a cge framework the main objective of this study is to improve the modelling of household demand for transport services in a computable general equilibrium cge model the new extended model is then used for numerical calculations to test how the swedish economy reacts to a carbon target special attention will be given to distributional effects and the connection between labour supply and work journeys in a sparsely populated country like sweden a differentiation between trip purposes and trip length a complementary relationship between work journeys and labour supply and a subdivision of households by density of population and income influence the numerical results our main conclusions from the analysis of a carbon target are that if the carbon tax revenue is recycled by decreasing the employers social contribution fee welfare costs are lower than with lump sum replacements of tax revenue to households the welfare cost may be reduced even further if work journeys are not additionally taxed as compared to the base year however the lower total welfare cost is obtained at the expense of making society more unequal since both labour tax recycling cuts in employers social contributions and exempting tax on work journeys will make low income groups carry a higher burden an increased carbon dioxide tax is also shown to increase welfare differences between sparsely populated areas and city regions in sweden

transport tax reform commuting and endogenous values of time abstract we consider a model of urban transport with two trip purposes commuting assumed perfectly complementary to labour supply and noncommuting to analyse the effects of transport tax reform on the value of time and marginal external congestion costs higher commuting taxes plausibly reduce time values but higher noncommuting transport prices will typically raise the value of time the intuition for this latter finding is that the reduction in congestion that follows from the tax increase itself raises net wages per hour of work inclusive of commuting time empirical illustrations with belgian data show a potentially large effect of transport tax reform on time values in quite a few of the tax reforms studied traffic levels are reduced but the increase in time values implies that marginal external congestion costs actually increase

short run subsidies and long run adoption of new health products evidence from a field experiment short run subsidies for health products are common in poor countries how do they affect long run adoption a common fear among development practitioners is that one off subsidies may negatively affect long run adoption through reference dependence people might anchor around the subsidized price and be unwilling to pay more for the product later but for experience goods one off subsidies could also boost long run adoption through learning this paper uses data from a two stage randomized pricing experiment in kenya to estimate the relative importance of these effects for a new improved antimalarial bed net reduced form estimates show that a one time subsidy has a positive impact on willingness to pay a year later inherit to separately identify the learning and anchoring effects we estimate a parsimonious experience good model estimation results show a large positive learning effect but no anchoring we black then discuss the types of products and the contexts inherit for which these results may apply

research note a cross category model of households incidence and quantity decisions this paper advances the literature on multicategory demand models by simultaneously handling more than one purchase decision of the household we propose a two stage bivariate logit model of incidence and quantity outcomes in multiple categories our results show that cross category promotional spillovers are asymmetric between the two product categories of bacon and eggs the total retail profit responds more to bacon price than to egg price promoting bacon is found to have a bigger impact on egg profit than the impact of egg promotion on bacon profit we decompose 1 the total retail profits as well as 2 the cross category profit impact of a price promotion into its two components and find that 1 23 67 of the total retail profit impact of a promotion on bacon eggs arises on account of quantity effects and 2 40 33 of the increase in egg bacon profit from promoting bacon eggs is on account of quantity effects

taxation unemployment and growth dynamic welfare effects of green policies abstract this paper analyzes the effects of environmental tax reforms on a small open economy the labor market is characterized by union wage setting the carbon tax acts as an implicit tariff which gives rise to terms of trade gains the terms of trade effect together with the union wage setting leads to a positive relationship between the capital labor ratio and net foreign wealth in the short run the disinvestments in real and financial capital give temporary room for higher consumption and instantaneous utility the long run effect on instantaneous utility is more uncertain a strong double dividend may exist

transport taxes with multiple trip purposes a congestible urban transport system is considered in which cars and buses are used for commuting and non commuting trips commuting is a strict complement to taxable labour supply the optimal tax structure for raising a given amount of government revenue is examined for the cases where differentiation of transport tolls between trip purposes is and is not possible an application to belgian urban environments shows that optimal toll differentiation produces significant efficiency improvements without differentiation reforming transport taxes generates substantial gains only when the labour tax can be reduced