financial intermediary coalitions abstract in this article an environment in which the investment opportunities of agents are private information is studied and it is shown that financial intermediaries arise endogenously within that environment it is established that financial intermediaries are part of an efficient arrangement in the sense that they are needed to support the authors private information core allocations these intermediaries which are coalitions of agents exhibit the following characteristics in equilibrium they borrow from and lend to large groups of agents they produce information about investment projects and they issue claims that have different state contingent payoffs than claims issued by ultimate borrowers

wealth effects distribution and the theory of organization abstract we construct a general equilibrium model of firm formation in which organization is endogenous firms are coalitions of agents providing effort and investment capital effort is unobservable unless a fixed monitoring cost is paid and borrowing is subject to a costly state verification problem because incentives vary with an agent s wealth different types of agents become attractive firm members under different circumstances when borrowing is not costly firms essentially consist of one type of agent and are organized efficiently but when the costly state verification problem is sufficiently severe firm organization will depend on the distribution of wealth with enough inequality it will tend to be dictated by incentives of rich agents to earn high returns to wealth even if the chosen organizational form is not a technically efficient way to provide incentives journal of economic literatureclassification numbers d2 d31 j41 l2

external demand constraints for agricultural exports an impediment to structural adjustment policies in sub saharan african countries abstract structural adjustment programmes are being promoted throughout the developing countries the recommended policy package including price as well as non price policies is geared towards export growth and a long term sustainable balance of payments there is considerable scepticism however whether developing countries can indeed benefit from an export oriented growth strategy first rigidities in domestic output supply responses could preclude significant export growth second external demand side constraints could impede export revenue growth if a jointly promoted export led strategy resulted in world market price deterioration analysis reveals that in the case of sub saharan africa neither of the above factors should cause a failure of structural adjustment policies however the outcome of adjustment policies could be improved if commodity and country specific factors were taken into consideration

tax effects versus budget effects on labor supply this paper analyzes the effects on labor supply of parallel changes in taxes and public spending of various types a number of important recent developments in the labor supply behavior of households are highlighted by such a study of various types of budget effects rather than isolated tax effects this comes out in particular when considering cross substitution effects on labor supply of changes in public spending on goods and services or of the subsidization of goods and services provided by private markets moreover the income effects of tax changes are often mitigated or possibly even removed by the income effects of the accompanying expenditure changes

american colonial monetary regimes the failure of the quantity theory and some evidence in favour of an alternate view recent developments in monetary economics suggest that the manner in which money is introduced is more important even for price level movements than the quantity of money colonial american experience provides a laboratory for testing this view it is shown that the nature of backing rather than the quantity of money determined its value large secular inflations were ended by changing the nature of backing despite continued large note issues and despite the absence of a metallic standard extremely large note issues and note withdrawals are shown not to have produced inflation currency depreciation or deflation currency appreciation

marginal federal personal and corporate income tax rates in the u s 1909 1975 abstract in this article i first report and describe the construction of two new statistical series on the marginal federal income tax rates for corporations and private individuals in the united states since the inception of those taxes and then analyze the behavior of these series over time several results on the determination of tax rates are derived these generally are not consistent with barro s theory of deficit finance

single option aversion this article documents single option aversion an increase in consumers desire to search when faced with a single option this effect can lead to a product being chosen more often when competing alternatives are included in the choice set contrary to various rational models of search as well as to recent research on choice conflict showing that additional options can lead to higher deferral rates a series of lab studies document this effect differentiate it from other context effects and test some of its boundary conditions the results suggest that single option aversion is not driven by the information provided by the additional options that the desire to search is critical for this effect to occur and that the effects of single option aversion are not limited to the immediate choice set these results have both practical and theoretical implications for the understanding of consumer search and choice deferral

eternal quest for the best sequential vs simultaneous option presentation undermines choice commitment a series of laboratory and field experiments reveals a detrimental effect of presenting options sequentially one at a time versus simultaneously all at once on choosers satisfaction with and commitment to their chosen option this is because choosers presented with their options simultaneously tend to remain focused on the current set of options comparing them among each other whereas choosers presented with their options sequentially tend to imagine a better option hoping it will become available this feeling of hope undermines how choosers subsequently experience their selected option resulting in lower satisfaction and commitment levels sequential choosers consequently exhibit lower outcome satisfaction regardless of which option they choose whether sequentially passed up options remain available and whether they have equivalent option information to simultaneous choosers thus enjoying the most satisfaction from one s choice might require being willing to give up the eternal quest for th

organizations in economic analysis three economic environments are reviewed and in each organizations play an essential role for an adverse selection insurance economy we find that when mutual insurance arrangements are permitted an equilibrium necessarily exists and is optimal this example and the two others illustrate the problems that may result from imposing organizational structure on an environment rather than permitting the structure to be determined endogenously les organisations dans l analyse economique les auteurs examinent trois sortes d environnement economique dans chacun des cas les organisations jouent un role fondamental dans le cas d une economie avec assurance et selection adverse les auteurs suggerent que quand des arrangements d assurance mutuelle sont permis un equilibre existe necessairement et est optimal cet environnement ainsi que les deux autres etudies par les auteurs illustre les problemes qui peuvent resulter quand on impose une structure organisationnelle sur un environnement plutot que de permettre a la structure organisationnelle d emerger de fakon endogene

on the marginal welfare cost of taxation this paper develops a rigorous partial equilibrium analysis of the determinants of margin al welfare cost mwc of taxes on labor earnings it shows that four key parameters interact to determine the magnitude of mwc using aggregate data and plausible ranges of values for the parameters mwc can vary from under 10 percent to more than 300 percent of marginal tax revenue intermediate parameter values sugge st mwc is in the 25 50 percent range however the more extreme estimates cannot be ruled out on the basis of available evidence suggesting that mwc cannot yet be copyright 1987 by american economic association

indivisible labor and the business cycle abstract a growth model with shocks to technology is studied labor is indivisible so all variability in hours worked is due to fluctuations in the number employed we find that unlike previous equilibrium models of the business cycle this economy displays large fluctuations in hours worked and relatively small fluctuations in productivity this finding is independent of individuals willingness to substitute leisure across time this and other findings are the result of studying and comparing summary statistics describing this economy an economy with divisible labor and post war u s time series

optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital abstract this paper is concerned with the structure and time consistency of optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital in a dynamic context optimal taxation means distributing tax distortions over time in a welfare maximizing way for a barter economy our main finding is that with debt commitments of sufficiently rich maturity structure an optimal policy if one exists is time consistent in a monetary economy the idea of optimal taxation must be broadened to include an inflation tax and we find that time consistency does not carry over an optimal inflation tax requires commitment by rules in a sense that has no counterpart in the dynamic theory of ordinary excise taxes the reason time consistency fails in a monetary economy is that nominal assets should from a welfare maximizing point of view always be taxed away via an immediate inflation in a kind of capital levy this emerges as a new possibility when money is introduced into an economy without capital

efficient competitive equilibria with adverse selection do walrasian markets function orderly in the presence of adverse selection in particular is their outcome efficient when exclusive contracts are enforceable this paper addresses these questions in the context of a rothschild stiglitz insurance economy we identify an externality associated with the presence of adverse selection as a special form of consumption externality consequently we show that competitive equilibria always exist but are not typically incentive efficient however as markets for pollution rights can internalize environmental externalities markets for consumption rights can be designed to internalize the consumption externality due to adverse selection with such markets competitive equilibria exist and incentive constrained versions of the first and second welfare theorems hold

food self sufficiency making sense of it and when it makes sense food self sufficiency gained increased attention in a number of countries in the wake of the 2007 08 international food crisis as countries sought to buffer themselves from volatility on world food markets food self sufficiency is often presented in policy circles as the direct opposite of international trade in food and is widely critiqued by economists as a misguided approach to food security that places political priorities ahead of economic efficiency this paper takes a closer look at the concept of food self sufficiency and makes the case that policy choice on this issue is far from a straightforward binary choice between the extremes of relying solely on homegrown food and a fully open trade policy for foodstuffs it shows that in practice food self sufficiency is defined and measured in a number of different ways and argues that a broader understanding of the concept opens up space for considering food self sufficiency policy in relative terms rather than as an either or policy choice conceptualizing food self sufficiency along a continuum may help to move the debate in a more productive direction allowing for greater consideration of instances when the pursuit of policies to increase domestic food production may make sense both politically and economically

the dilemma of cheap food and self sufficiency the case of wheat in iran self sufficiency in wheat has been one of the major goals of iranian agricultural policies since the revolution of 1979 even so the country failed to achieve this goal by the early 2000s despite a satisfactory growth in wheat production this paper addresses this failure and the political difficulties in introducing reforms that would reduce the need for import first the production and consumption of wheat are examined the conclusion is that the cheap bread policy has mainly been responsible for the imbalances between domestic supply and demand and the continued reliance on wheat imports moreover the paper argues that the subsidy program is an expensive safety net for the needy and shows that the iranian government has intended to reform the program since the early 1990s however subsidy reforms are politically sensitive especially in developing countries where subsidies are considered very important both for supporting the poor and for political stability an analysis of the iranian attempts at subsidy reform suggests that they have not yet succeeded mainly due to such political considerations

goal based construction of preferences task goals and the prominence effect preferences inferred from choice are more likely to favor the alternative that is superior with respect to the prominent most important or salient attribute than are preferences inferred from matching direct tradeoff judgments this prominence effect violates standard models of rational choice and complicates the task of measuring preferences in this article we propose a new task goal hypothesis regarding the prominence effect the prominent attribute receives more weight in tasks whose goal is to differentiate among options than in tasks whose goal is to equate options we use this hypothesis to generalize the prominence effect beyond choice and matching to several additional tasks including the choice based matching and difference comparison methods that are widely employed in decision analysis the results of three studies provide strong support for the task goal account of the prominence effect and cast doubt on competing explanations we discuss the implications of these findings for descriptive decision theory and for preference measurement in decision analysis public policy and marketing

government debt government spending and private sector behavior a current period tax reduction financed by issuing government debt shifts the timing of tax collection from the current period to the future if the future taxes implied by government debt are not fully perceived and discounted by the private sector there will be a net wealth effect that increases private sector consumption thus reducing capital accumulation and growth if on the other hand the implied future taxes are perceived and discounted by the private sector the current period tax reduction will be used to increase private saving to pay for the future taxes and government debt will be absorbed without any real effects on the economy the effects of government spending financed by current period taxation also depend upon private sector perceptions 2 if the benefits of government spending are ignored private sector consumption will decrease in accordance with the reduction in permanent disposable income to the extent that government spending is on consumption type goods that are perceived as substitutes for privately provided consumption goods there will be a relatively greater reduction in private sector consumption to the extent that government spending is on investment type goods yielding future goods and services that are perceived as substitutes for future privately provided consumption goods there will be a relatively smaller reduction in private sector consumption the standard approach to modeling private sector consumption saving behavior involves a rather asymmetric set of assumptions as to how the private sector perceives the various elements of government fiscal policy 3 current period taxes are assumed to be fully perceived but current period government spending is implicitly assumed to be completely ignored by the private sector in considering permanent personal disposable income the private sector is assumed to be forward looking in its assessment of income and taxation the stock of government debt is nevertheless included as part of the stock of private wealth the implicit assumption associate professor of economics graduate school of business university of chicago 1101 east 58th street chicago il 60637 i thank eugene fama levis kochin michael mussa paul evans and an anonymous referee for helpful comments i am particularly grateful to daniel benjamin for contributing many hours of discussion and laura lahaye who was a research assistant and valuable adviser on earlier drafts the theoretical debate on the burden of the debt has been long standing gerald o driscoll 1977 documents ricardo s nineteenth century position robert barro 1974 reopened the debate by introducing the fundamental issue of intergenerational transfers also discussed in merton miller and charles upton 1974 the empirical side of the debate was initiated by levis kochin s 1974 attempt to test for the effects of deficits on consumption and by martin feldstein s 1974 attempt to test for the effects of social security wealth on consumption other empirical contributions include jess yawitz and laurence meyer 1976 myself 1978 and j earnest tanner 1978 1979 with respect to the effects of government deficits and debt and barro 1978 michael darby 1979 and dean leimer and selig lesnoy 1982 with respect to social security wealth see also interesting recent papers by john seater 1982 who generates detailed tests of the effects of deficits and debt on consumption charles plosser 1982 who explores the effects of government spending and debt shocks on interest rates and feldstein 1982 who attempts tests similar to some in this paper see fn 29 2martin bailey s 1962 1971 development of the effects of government spending on private consumption and aggregate economic activity is the seminal contribution paul david and john scadding 1974 extend bailey s ideas and provide some supporting empirical evidence more recently willem buiter 1977 and myself 1978 developed models based on bailey s earlier work barro 1981 has an interesting paper on related issues see also david aschauer 1982 3the standard approach incorporates fiscal policy through the concept of personal disposable income and by including the stock of government debt as part of personal wealth see for example the empirical specification of albert ando and franco modigliani 1963 which has been the basis of most empirical consumption studies since and feldstein 1974 for one of the more influential papers based on the ando modigliani specification

some colonial evidence on two theories of money maryland and the carolinas recent developments in monetary economics stress the nature of monetary injections emphasizing that they have implications for the relationship between money and prices in contrast traditional approaches posit stable money demand functions that are independent of how money is injected the former approach implies that certain proportionality relations between money and prices need not obtain this permits the two approaches to be empirically distinguished but only if an appropriate experiment is conducted the colonial period is one such experiment colonial evidence suggests that the nature of injections is crucial to the effect on prices of changes in the money supply

allocation of cost savings in a three level supply chain with demand information sharing a cooperative game approach we analyze the problem of allocating cost savings from sharing demand information in a three level supply chain with a manufacturer a distributor and a retailer to find a unique allocation scheme we use concepts from cooperative game theory first we analytically compute the expected cost incurred by the manufacturer and then use simulation to obtain expected costs for the distributor and the retailer we construct a three person cooperative game in characteristic function form and derive necessary conditions for the stability of each of five possible coalitions to divide the cost savings between two members or among three supply chain members we use various allocation schemes we present numerical analyses to investigate the impacts of the demand autocorrelation coefficient and the unit holding and shortage costs on the allocation scheme

labor supply taxes and government spending a microeconometric analysis the effect of government spending on labor supply behavior is critical to predicting the balanced budget effect of income taxes and to estimating the marginal social cost of public funds yet its very existence not to mention direction and magnitude has not been empirically investigated this research estimates a labor supply function that incorporates income taxation and government spending using microeconomic data for men and women the empirical results suggest that public sector spending may have a significant effect on labor supply thereby leading to estimates of the marginal social cost of public funds that differ from those typically calculated

liquidity banking and bank failures a multiperiod model with risk neutral agents is constructed in which a liquidity problem arises in an equilibrium with decentralized tradin g in capital which banking institutions are able to alleviate depos it contracts provide for early withdrawal banks hold debt and agent s who borrow from banks hold compensating balances institutional col lapse or a state of the world when bank failures are experienced is associated with a high demand for liquidity low output and a lower than average level of welfare bank failure is symptomatic of a part icular state of endowments preferences and technology and governme nt intervention is undesirable copyright 1988 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

dynamic coalition formation and equilibrium policy selection a model of policy formulation is proposed in which the government and the private sector form dynamic coalitions for the purpose of choosing policy actions however current players cannot commit their future selves to any particular actions defining an equilibrium to be an unblocked sequence of actions we show that an equilibrium exists and is unique even though in general cooperative outcomes are not time consistent our framework has the implication that when private agents and the government have identical preferences there are no distortions associated with the use of non lump sum taxes some empirical implications of this result are discussed

food in sub saharan africa trends and policy challenges for the 1990s abstract the food situation in africa can be expected to become increasingly serious as the end of the century approaches the gap between domestic supply and food needs in rapidly widening yield increasing technology becomes essential in view of land scarcity in high potential areas and sustainability problems in marginal zones the concern of governments for food self sufficiency however must not divert attention from the primary objective of household food security which is essentially a question of households real income accelerated rural growth and improved rural health and sanitation services accessible to the poor are central elements for household food security improvement

pareto optima and competitive equilibria with adverse selection and moral hazard this paper explores the extent to which standard general equilibrium analysis of pareto optima and of competitive equilibria can be applied to environments with moral hazard and adverse selection problems allowing for lotteries contracts with random components we first establish that an adverse selection insurance economy a moral hazard insurance economy a signaling economy and a private information labor market economy are all special cases of a simple general structure we then show that techniques for characterizing pareto optimal contracts as solutions to concave programming problems are useful and nice and appear to be broadly applicable allowing for lotteries we show how to characterize the optimal allocations for the adverse selection insurance and labor market economies we then show that standard existence and optimality theorems for competitive equilibria apply in the linear space containing lotteries if agents with characteristics which are distinct and privately observed at the time of initial trading enter the economy wide resource constraints in a homogeneous way other kinds of diversity are not critical for economies with moral hazard which satisfy the homogeneity condition competitive contract markets single out a subset of the optima and thus can be consistent with apparent unemployment and with a random allocation of labor supplied though all households are averse to risk the adverse selection insurance and signaling economies however do not satisfy the homogeneity condition and are difficult to decentralize efficiently with a price system

sadcc food security strategies evolution and role abstract over the last seven years the scope of strategies promoted by the sadcc food security program has broadened steadily at first there was an almost complete preoccupation with food production the program now includes projects related to cereal market stabilization regional trade and food aid most recently consumption objectives have been made an explicit concern of the program this paper traces the evolution of policy underlying this expansion of interest cooperation between sadcc member states rests on the principle that more can be achieved by joint effort than by individual states acting alone however experience to date suggests that it is easier to define the benefits of regional collaboration than to capture them the sadcc food security program requires technical and financial capacity in order to pursue its objectives but the success of collaborative ventures rests to a more critical extent on the level of confidence which exists among member states

unimprovable allocations in economies with incomplete information abstract the paper considers an exchange economy with incomplete information in which agents can retrade goods until all gains from trade are exhausted unimprovable allocations are defined to be those allocations from which agents would not wish to deviate either by retrading goods or by revealing further information the concept of unimprovability is then used to analyze a lemons market and an adverse selection insurance market in which agents can renegotiate after information has been revealed finally unimprovability is compared to different concepts of efficiency and to the concept of durability journal of economic literature classification number d82

optimal collective contract without peer information or peer monitoring if entrepreneurs have private information about factors influencing the outcome of an investment individual lending is inefficient the literature typically offers solutions based on the assumption of full peer information to solve adverse selection problems and peer monitoring to solve moral hazard problems in contrast i show that it is possible to construct a simple budget balanced mechanism that implements the efficient outcome even if each borrower knows only own type and effort and has neither privileged knowledge about others nor monitoring ability the mechanism satisfies participation incentives for all types and is immune to the rothschild stiglitz cream skimming problem despite using transfers from better types to worse types the presence of some local information implies that the mechanism cannot be successfully used by formal lenders thus a local credit institution can emerge as an optimal response to the informational environment even without peer information or monitoring finally i investigate the role of monitoring in this setting and show how costly monitoring can increase the scope of the mechanism

tax revenue and the marginal cost of public funds in sweden abstract we assess the welfare cost of raising a marginal unit of tax revenue in a balanced budget general equilibrium framework the calculated social cost of an increment of public funds is sensitive to both the specific type of tax increase and the type of public spending used on the margin best guess assumptions on labor supply elasticities yield marginal costs of public funds for different fiscal mixes of between 0 67 and 4 51 at prevailing tax rates in sweden alternative labor supply assumptions well within the range of current estimates substantially affect the results and can imply infinite marginal welfare costs marginal welfare costs are also sensitive to assumptions about both the income and substitution effects of labor supply

consumption patterns and their effects on land required for food abstract vast amounts of land are required for the production of food but the area suitable for growing crops is limited in this paper attention is paid to the relationship between food consumption patterns and agricultural land requirements land requirements per food item that were determined in a previous study are combined with data on the per capita food consumption of various food packages varying from subsistence to affluent leading to information on land requirements for food large differences could be shown in per capita food consumption and related land requirements while food consumption expenditure and the physical consumption of specific foods change rapidly over time a difference of a factor of two was found between the requirements for existing european food patterns while the land requirement for a hypothetical diet based on wheat was six times less than that for an existing affluent diet with meat it is argued that in the near future changes in consumption patterns rather than population growth will form the most important variable for total land requirements for food trends towards the consumption of foods associated with affluent lifestyles will bring with them a need for more land lifestyle changes changes in consumer behavior on a household level can be considered as powerful options to reduce the use of natural resources such as agricultural land

agricultural policies in the presence of distorting taxes this article analyzes how distortionary factor taxes affect the welfare impacts of production subsidies production quotas acreage controls subsidies for acreage reductions and cash transfers to farmers pre existing taxes substantially raise the costs of all these policies these additional costs reflect the welfare losses from financing certain policies by distortionary taxes they also reflect interactions with factor markets caused by changes in the costs of producing agricultural output previous studies ignore the latter types of effect consequently they significantly overstate the costs of production subsidies and understate the costs of production quotas acreage controls and subsidies for acreage reductions

long term contracts expectations and wage inertia abstract this paper develops a macro model of contractual wage setting that is used to test the importance that increased contract length has in generating wage inertia using an errors in variables format to isolate the effect of price and productivity shocks it is shown that the sensitivity of union wages to unanticipated disturbances would increase by only a small amount in the absence of long term three year labor contracts our results suggest that formal contracts are not a major source of nominal wage rigidity and the price surprises play a relatively small role in generating business cycles

non discriminating renegotiation in a competitive insurance market abstract a variant of the rothschild stiglitz model of a competitive insurance market is considered where each uninformed firm is allowed to renegotiate the contracts that its customers initially sign subject to the restriction that renegotiated contracts be offered to all the firm s customers such non discriminating renegotiation is shown to weaken the profitability of cream skimming to the extent that there exists a unique equilibrium outcome this outcome is that of miyazaki and spence i e the incentive compatible pair of zero profit contracts if efficient and the incentive compatible zero profit pair of contracts maximizing low risk utility otherwise

on the construction of marginal federal personal and social security tax rates in the u s abstract in this article i correct and extend my earlier series on marginal federal personal income tax rates i also construct a measure of the marginal social security tax rate and add this to the income tax rate to obtain a measure of the effective marginal tax rate on income due to federal taxes finally i compare my series on marginal income tax rates and its method of construction with those of barro and sahasakul

the trade off between equality and efficiency this paper uses a 1976 microdata base to estimate the marginal cost of reducing income inequality with a policy that has distributional effects similar to the present tax transfer system the analysis uses a simulation methodology in which only the labor supply effects are evaluated other behavioral effects are ignored the most striking finding is that marginal cost is quite high even for modest labor supply elasticities for example in the benchmark case with a weighted average economy wide uncompensated wage elasticity of 0 2 and compensated elasticity of 0 31 the disposable money income of upper income quintiles of households is depressed by 9 51 for each dollar increase in the disposable money income of lower income quintiles when income equivalent values that take account of the value of leisure are compared the marginal cost for this case is estimated to be 3 49