state liquor licensing implicit contracting and dry wet counties local option liquor laws are generally interpreted as granting voters the right to choose between allowing and prohibiting alcoholic beverage sales this paper argues that the real choice confronting voters is between legal sales according to state prescribed rules and illegal sales according to an informal set of locally determined rules given this choice rational voters will choose the option with the lower relative price state laws restricting the number of licenses that can be issued in legally wet jurisdictions prove to be more powerful than religious preferences in explaining the pattern of dry counties

women leaders and social performance evidence from financial cooperatives in senegal how do women leaders such as board members and top managers influence the social performance of organizations this paper addresses the question by exploiting a unique database from a senegalese network of 36 financial cooperatives we scrutinize the loan granting decisions made jointly by the locally elected board and the top manager assigned by the central union of the network our findings are threefold first female dominated boards favor social orientation second female managers tend to align their strategy with local boards preferences third the central union tends to assign male managers to female dominated boards probably to curb the boards social orientation

environmental and socio economic feasibility assessment of rice straw conversion to power and ethanol in thailand abstract technically 26 32 of rice straw residues accounting for about 5 6 mt year can be used for energy in thailand the quantified environmental and socio economic benefits of this potential renewable energy source could be a driving force noted by the decision makers and communities converting rice straw residues to electricity or ethanol would directly increase the standard of living of regional households in terms of expenditure fulfillments direct contributions to the housing healthcare education and necessities as well as the share of straw logistics on regional wise basis are estimated furthermore one environmental and four socio economic indicators are quantified for 1 mj of dry rice straw delivered and used in assumed commercial 10 mwe and 24 ml ethanol conversion facilities using the same yearly quantity of 116 000 t rice straw all the indicators show favor in the ethanol option comparison ratios of value added of straw to energy life cycle ghg reductions net currency savings direct value added gdp and employment direct indirect unemployed beneficiaries for ethanol and power options would be respectively 1 0 07 1 0 89 1 0 96 1 0 11 and 1 0 35 total yearly employment beneficiaries of 15 000 18 000 and 41 000 51 000 are expected for power and ethanol options respectively

trust interlinking transactions and credit in the industrial district an essential feature of the industrial district is trust among individuals and firms within it this paper focuses mainly on trust based on investments in building up a good reputation that is a personal capital that can even substitute for collateral in obtaining credit informal credit often linked to other transactions and especially subcontracting is therefore an important way of financing economic development in the industrial district moreover the importance of trust as personal capital gives rise to a double financial intermediation in the industrial district this double intermediation constitutes a device to reduce information problems that are usually responsible for credit rationing c 1994 academic press inc copyright 1994 by oxford university press

exchange rate based stabilizations a literature review the exchange rate based stabilizations erbss that have been undertaken in chronic inflation countries have generated a controversial body of literature regarding the effects of disinflation programs especially those on real consumption and output this survey provides an extensive overview of the literature on erbs the paper covers various empirical studies that have attempted to document the macroeconomic regularities associated with erbs discussing both their strengths and their weaknesses it analyzes diverse theoretical models that have been put forward to replicate the business cycles associated with erbs and sheds light on which models perform better using real data the results suggest that durables incorporated weak credibility and sticky price model proves to be most compatible with the empirical regularities observed in the course of erbs

exchange rate based stabilization with endogenous fiscal response abstract this paper studies the dynamics of inconsistent exchange rate based stabilization policy a policy that fixes the exchange rate without an underlying fiscal adjustment to ensure that the exchange rate policy is sustainable in the long run in a model where the perception that exchange rate policy temporarily leads to an initial expansion in consumption that generates an increase in tax revenues large enough to eliminate the ex ante fiscal deficit therefore an ex ante inconsistent stabilization program displays ex post all the features of a fiscally consistent one i e a fixed exchange rate and no fiscal deficit in contrast to the standard results where the inconsistency between fiscal and exchange rate policy leads to a steady loss of international reserves and culminates in a krugman type balance of payments crisis this model predicts that along the path towards the balance of payments crisis the economy displays no fiscal deficit and enjoys increasing international reserves

the argentine stabilization plan of december 20th abstract in this paper an analytical model is developed to incorporate the essential characteristics of the stabilization plan implemented in argentina in january 1979 the model is based upon a set of simplifying assumptions that only approximate the complexity of the real world it is assumed that the expectations of inflation and the degree of excess demand or supply in the non traded goods market are the main intermediate determinants of the rate of inflation in that market the rate of change of prices of traded goods being determined by the external inflation together with the rate of devaluation treating thus the external rate of inflation as exogenous the only instrument available for influencing the rate of inflation in the long run is the rate of devaluation since the model assumes a fixed exchange rate regime the money supply is endogenous and hence unsuitable as an instrument of economic policy

exchange rate management intertemporal tradeoffs exchange rate management is possible only if the government pursues consistent monetary and fiscal policies the authors constructa model in which the real consequences of exchange rate management depend on the precise time pattern of these policies the authors study the constraints on feasible policies and the comparative dynamics of disinflation by means of exchange rate targeting theoretical results are consistent with exchange rate managed disinflation attempts in argentina chile and israel copyright 1987 by american economic association

exchange rate based inflation stabilization the initial real effects of credible plans abstract this paper studies the initial effects of exchange rate based stabilization programs within a dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy in which inflation acts as a tax on intermediate transactions and capital accumulation is subject to convex adjustment costs and gestation lags the model replicates the typical pattern of slow inflation convergence sustained real exchange rate appreciation trade balance deterioration and expansion in domestic spending followed by a deflationary slowdown without resorting to sticky prices imperfect credibility or adaptive expectations calibrated versions of the model are compared with the initial effects of the argentine convertibility plan of april 1991

has mercantilism reduced urban poverty in ssa perception of boom bust and the china africa trade in lome and bamako this paper addresses the immediate impacts of the china africa trade on africa s informal traders and its longer term impact on urban poverty based on a comparison of the major cities of two west african countries and drawing on semi structured interviews with traders and on schedule based interviews with key informants in government business and the informal trade sector the findings are that the increase in imports from china initially broadened access to trading for the poor creating short term improvements in livelihoods but competition is driving down profit margins and restricting the trade to a survival mechanism for many today thus it has provided limited long term potential as an economic platform for national development and poverty reduction the findings are discussed in terms of structuration theory and in terms of alternative conceptualizations of informal trade in africa

tomatoes land and hearsay property and history in asante in the time of structural adjustment abstract after a decade of advocating market based solutions to poverty and underdevelopment in sub saharan africa policy analysts have begun to reexamine the actual and potential role of african states and institutions in promoting sustainable development while stressing the importance of flexibility in policies and institutions much of this debate rests on ahistorical approaches to understanding african institutions which portray them as inflexible and fragile beleaguered by economic and political change rather than contributing to it after reviewing some of the assumptions which inform recent debates this essay argues for a more processual approach which takes account of the negotiability and ambiguity of many institutional arrangements drawing on a case study of recent changes in land rights and agricultural practices in a rural community in ghana

structural adjustment programmes and the city in tropical africa following a preface which indicates the alteration in the forces shaping the african city it is indicated how the conditionalities imposed by structural adjustment programmes initially relate to the national economy however they also result in a second round of impacts which in effect reshape the city these operate primarily with the removal of the operation of urban bias they are reflected in reduced urban growth rates and a mounting informal sector as the overall economy changes and the nature of industry is revised meanwhile underdevelopment occurs as the quality of life declines inequality mounts and the food supply experiences difficulty at the same time money and people depart it is concluded that such programmes are but reflections of the operation of the global economy

temporary stabilization predetermined exchange rates the paper analyzes the impact of a stabilization policy based on a temporary reduction in the rate of devaluation against a background in which a constant rate of devaluation has no real effects it is shown that the temporary policy does and furthermore that the real effects tend to become bigger in absolute value as the horizon of the temporary policy is shortened the central discussion is carried out in terms of a one good cash in advance model with perfect capital mobility and ramsey type consumers results are extended to account for home goods and variable velocity the roles of capital mobility and banking liberalization are briefly discussed

stabilization and growth in transition economies the early experience this paper analyzes the growth and stabilization experience in 26 transition economies in eastern europe the former soviet union and mongolia for the period 1989 1994 inflation rates have declined significantly in most countries following an inflation stabilization program growth resumes after stabilization occurs typically with a lag of about two years reducing inflation thus appears to be a precondition for growth an econometric analysis of the short run determinants of inflation and growth illustrates the key roles of fixed exchange rates improved fiscal balances and structural reforms in spurring growth and lowering inflation and confirms that inflation stabilization programs have been beneficial for growth even after controlling for structural reforms

creating urban social capital some evidence from informal traders in nairobi the poverty and dramatic alteration in geographical composition of african cities have been associated with rapid urbanisation the growth of the informal economy and migration the latter has sepa

the price consumption puzzle of currency pegs abstract a defining stylized fact associated with exchange rate based stabilization programs is that their initial phase is characterized by several years of continuous expansion in private consumption and a gradual appreciation of the real exchange rate this paper shows that a large class of standard optimizing models is unable to account for this empirical regularity in particular models in this class predict that a gradual appreciation of the real exchange rate must necessarily be accompanied by a declining path of consumption the paper suggests several possible solutions to this problem and develops one in detail namely the relaxation of the assumption of time separability in preferences specifically it shows that under habit formation currency pegs induce a positive comovement between consumption and the real exchange rate the paper also establishes that habit formation provides an explanation for why in failed currency pegs a contraction in aggregate demand sets in before the collapse of the program

demographic change in the former soviet union during the transition period abstract this paper examines patterns of mortality and other demographic changes across the former soviet union using regional data from the early 1990s a simultaneous equations model of fertility marriage divorce infant mortality and abortion is estimated as a function of economic and social variables the paper then looks at determinants of life expectancy and specific causes of death demographic scenarios are then forecast on the basis of specific economic environments these forecasts in turn are used to forecast life expectancies in the coming decades in plausible environments there is little reason to anticipate a rapid recovery in male or female life expectancies while further declines in fertility appear imminent

the global and local dimensions of place making remaking shanghai as a world city shanghai the largest socialist industrial city in china is now experiencing dramatic restructuring under global and local forces this paper provides a preliminary account of remaking this city into a world city the case study suggests the tremendous and pervasive impact of globalisation on the city in transitional economies although it is still not comparable with a truly global city the growth of inward investment particularly its penetration into real estate development has exerted direct impacts on the urban structure it is argued that however that this global influence can only be realised through the coincidence of indigenous changes in the political economy system specifically the willingness of the central government to give more autonomy to local governments the new policy to set up a window for china s open policy the incentive for making money from selling the space the injection of public money into infrastructure and fierce promotional development strategies all contributed to the process of urban restructuring the effect of combined global and local changes has led to an extremely optimistic growth atmosphere and a building boom since the mid 1990s shanghai highlights the local as well as the global dimensions of urban change in the post socialist economies

urban growth in developing countries a review of current trends and a caution regarding existing forecasts summary the purpose of this paper is to clarify the nature of the on going urban transition in developing countries the quality of the available data and the uncertainty of existing urban forecasts although the recently released united nations publication world urbanization prospects is an invaluable resource for those interested in studying urban change the data in the report are somewhat deceptive in their apparent completeness and beyond the narrow confines of technical demography there is a great deal of misunderstanding and misreporting about what these data mean and how they should be interpreted for example while the scale of urban change is unprecedented and the nature and direction of urban change is more dependent on the global economy than ever before many aspects of the traditional distinction between urban and rural are becoming redundant this paper provides a broad overview of the available evidence on patterns and trends in urban growth in developing countries highlighting regional differences where appropriate the paper also examines the quality of past urban population projections and finds that there has been considerable diversity in their quality by geographic region level of development and size of country 2003 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

sustainable urban livelihoods and marketplace social capital crisis and strategy in petty trade urban growth has been accompanied by the development of bimodal labour markets and increasing inequalities in both north and south in southern cities many of the poor have turned to the informal sector in particular to street trade this has resulted in a multiplicity of urban conflicts and has led to pressure on urban managers to undertake formalisation for which an increasingly developmental approach has been advocated nevertheless for traders the formalisation of street trade has very uneven outcomes the starting point for this article is the premise that not enough is known about the social fabric upon which trading careers depend adopting sustainable livelihoods as a conceptual framework and drawing on social capital theory four questions are addressed how do trading careers survive over time are there differences in the survival strategies for which social capital is employed among traders operating in different political cultural and socioeconomic contexts in the new processes of urba

a further exploration in the theory of exchange rate regimes in an interesting paper in this journal elhanan helpman 1981 develops a simple two country model to compare the welfare levels that are achieved under different exchange rate regimes in a world characterized by perfect foresight his basic finding is that equilibrium consumption allocations and hence welfare levels are identical under a floating exchange rate system and a one sided peg fixed exchange rate regime this result is due to helpman s assumption that output is determined exogenously which allows a separation of the real and monetary sides of the economy the purpose of this paper is to extend helpman s model by making two alterations in his setup 1 to allow production to be endogenously determined as a function of labor force participation and 2 to allow welfare levels to be dependent on labor service as well as on consumption the main conclusion then obtained is that a country may achieve a higher welfare level under a flexible exchange rate regime than under a fixed exchange rate regime since it is able to choose an optimal rate of inflation or currency depreciation

on gradual disinflation the real exchange rate and the current account abstract we study the effects of a credible gradual exchange rate based disinflation program in a two sector economy after an initial exchange rate depreciation the reductions in the rate of devaluation reduce the monetary wedge generated by the cash in advance constraint leading to a gradual increase in absorption that yields progressive real exchange rate appreciations and current account deficits an initial boom in economic activity is not followed by a later contraction as labour supply expands during the whole length of the program many of the model s predictions are in accordance with the stylized facts on disinflation in chronic inflation countries in particular those of the mexican program of 1988 1992

public monopoly and economic efficiency evidence from the pennsylvania liquor control board s entry decisions we estimate a spatial model of liquor demand to analyze the impact of government controlled retailing on entry patterns in the absence of the pennsylvania liquor control board the state would have roughly 2 5 times the current number of stores higher consumer surplus and lower payments to liquor store employees with just over half the number of stores that would maximize welfare the government system is instead best rationalized as profit maximization with profit sharing government operation mitigates but does not eliminate free entry s bias against rural consumers we find only limited evidence of political influence on entry jel d42 d72 l11 l12 l43 l81

stabilization policies in developing countries what have we learned abstract the paper reviews the recent experience with stabilization programmes in latin america in the light of traditional and monetarist models of inflation and the exchange rate the traditional model links both inflation and payments problems to budget deficits the monetarist model too believes that inflation is caused by fiscal deficits but it takes a more optimistic view of stabilization full purchasing power parity and perfect capital mobility make stabilization just a question of the appropriate exchange rate policy and the proper rate of domestic credit creation the traditional view is substantially right as a long run model but it fails in the dynamics the monetarist model is as we know now fundamentally wrong as a short run description of the possibilities of inflation control there is need and room for a paradigm that places emphasis on the debt money mix in financing the budget on the stickiness of inflation rates and on the place of short run real exchange rate and real interest rate variations that these are key features of the transition phase is amply borne out by the devasting and unsuccessful experiences with monetarist stabilization in argentina chile and brazil

projected demand and supply for various foods in west africa implications for investments and food policy abstract this paper a summarizes recent evidence of changes in dietary patterns in the 15 ecowas countries of west africa over the past 30 years and the forces driving those changes in this paper the term west africa refers to the 15 countries that are members of the economic community of west african states ecowas benin burkina faso cape verde cote d ivoire the gambia ghana guinea guinea bissau liberia mali niger nigeria senegal sierra leone and togo b uses expenditure elasticity estimates derived from budget consumption studies in 8 of these countries burkina faso cote d ivoire ghana mali niger nigeria senegal and togo and hypotheses about alternative income growth trajectories to develop scenarios about the evolution of demand for various foods over the period 2010 2040 c compares the projected demand growth with projection of production growth in key commodities to identify potential or increasing demand supply gaps and d derives implications for needed investments and policies regarding different commodities and components of the west african agrifood system including identifying gaps in the current african union led comprehensive africa agriculture development caadp programs the analysis shows that in absolute terms production shortfalls relative to demand for starchy staples particularly rice and wheat will continue to pose a major challenge for ecowas countries in relative terms however imbalances between domestic production and demand will increase more quickly for foods with high income elasticities of demand such as meat dairy products seafood fruits and vegetables and vegetable oils urban demand will grow two to four times faster than rural demand depending on the commodity putting increased pressure on already stressed urban food marketing systems substantial variations in supply demand gaps across countries suggest that more fluid regional trade could help individual countries cope with these challenges the findings also suggest that the focus of food policies in west africa historically on starchy staples particularly cereals needs to broaden to include a range of higher value products for which demand is likely to increase very rapidly in the near future

behind the market stage where real societies exist part i the role of public and private order institutions this two part article is an attempt to clarify the social conditions upon which the viability and efficiency of the market system rest it strives to show that the embeddedness thesis that is an explanation based upon the existence of long run personal ties involving the use of reputation mechanisms among transactors cannot fully elucidate the question as to how the problem of trust is solved in market societies as explained in part i there are difficulties of both theoretical and empirical historical kinds and these explain why the market order needs to be sustained by private and public order institutions in part ii the role of generalised morality in backing or supplementing such institutions is discussed in the light of game theory and particular emphasis is put on the ability of moral norms to sustain honest behaviour by generating the right kind of preferences and establishing trust the vexed problem of the dynamics of norm emergence and erosion is then addressed with a view to showing

exchange rate based stabilizations under real frictions the role of endogenous labor supply abstract this paper studies exchange rate based stabilization programs in the context of a model of a small open economy where labor supply is endogenous agents derive utility from both consumption and leisure in environments where consumption is subject to a cash in advance constraint a cut in the rate of devaluation lowers the nominal interest rate and hence alters the optimal mix of consumption and leisure the paper shows that in the presence of adjustment costs of investment a perfectly credible cut in the devaluation rate causes simultaneously a consumption and output boom a cumulative current deficit a sustained real appreciation of the domestic currency and an increase in labor supply over time it is also shown that an imperfectly credible stabilization program in this environment would have effects similar to the perfectly credible program but generate richer dynamics such as an initial boom in output followed by a recession which begins prior to the end of the program the model has clear welfare implications in that permanent reductions in inflation are unambiguously welfare enhancing

trust networks and norms the creation of social capital in agricultural economies in ghana this paper contributes to the continuing debate over the multifaceted concept of trust and its ability to provide a richer explanation of processes of economic activity using case studies of agricultural production marketing and financing systems in brong ahafo region of ghana the analysis documents the means by which trust is created among farmers traders and agricultural input suppliers the mechanisms include formal and informal networks of working relations customer friendships pre existing networks and intermediaries the study shows that trust is necessary for the development of a vibrant private sector based on microenterprises in conditions where actors cannot rely on formal legal institutions at present

modern hyper and high inflations since 1947 hyperinflations by cagan s definition in market economies have been rare much more common have been longer inflationary processes with inflation rates above 100 percent per annum based on a sample of 133 countries and using the 100 percent threshold as the basis for a definition of very high inflation episodes this paper examines the main characteristics of such inflations among other things we find that i close to 20 percent of countries have experienced inflation above 100 percent per annum ii higher inflation tends to be more unstable iii in high inflation countries the relationship between the fiscal balance and seigniorage is strong both in the short and long run iv inflation inertia decreases as average inflation rises v high inflation is associated with poor macroeconomic performance and vi stabilizations from high inflation that rely on the exchange rate as the nominal anchor are expansionary

immigrant self employment the family as social capital and the value of human capital we examine how self employment among asian and hispanic immigrants is affected by family composition and human capital class resources because of collective interests and strong personal ties the family facilitates the pooling of labor power and financial resources enterprising immigrants draw on these resources when establishing and operating small businesses our findings also show the importance of human capital class resources in accounting for immigrant self employment although foreign earned human capital is usually not highly valued in the host labor market immigrants successfully use this human capital to achieve business ownership interethnic variation in personal human capital and family composition accounts for a substantial portion of the observed interethnic variation in self employment the data are drawn from the 1980 five percent pums for greater new york city and los angeles excerpt

the approach of institutional economics this paper assesses the old institutional economics it emphasizes the importance of key old institutionalist themes concerning the necessity of habits and rules and the role of institutions a problem in the alternative theoretical program of the new institutionalism is the untenability of its assumption of an original institution free market or state of nature even optimizing behavior requires the prior existence of habits and rules although it still lacks a complete and systematic theory the evolutionary approach of the old institutionalists tackles the problem of the interactive relationship of actor to structure without analytical reduction to one or the other

nominal interest rates consumption booms and lack of credibility a quantitative examination abstract exchange rate based stabilization programs in chronic inflation countries have often been accompanied by an initial expansion of private consumption followed by a contraction this consumption cycle has been attributed to lack of credibility in the sense that the public views the reduction in the devaluation rate as temporary this paper assesses the quantitative relevance of the temporariness hypothesis by comparing the predictions of a simple model to the actual figures for seven major programs the paper concludes that nominal interest rates must fall substantially for the temporariness hypothesis to account for an important fraction of the observed consumption booms

inflation stabilisation and the consumption of durable goods exchange rate based stabilisations in chronic inflation countries have often been characterised by an initial consumption boom which is most evident in the behaviour of durable goods followed by a later contraction this paper provides an explanation for such a boom recession cycle based on the timing of purchases of durable goods the initial fall in inflation results in a wealth effect which induces many consumers to bring forward their purchases of durable goods thus generating an aggregate consumption boom since most consumers replenish their stock of durable goods at the beginning of the programme a later slowdown follows

microfinance in africa is it either the problem or the solution abstract this article is based on research undertaken on microenterprises in the informal sector in kenya malawi and ghana it seeks to provoke critical reflection on the uncritical enthusiasm that lies behind much proselytizing of microfinance for informal sector microenterprise it questions whether the extensive donor interest in microenterprise finance really addresses the problems of microentrepreneurs or whether it offers the illusion of a quick fix it suggests that the real problems are more profound and cannot be tackled solely by capital injections but require fundamental structural changes of the socioeconomic conditions that define informal sector activity and a fuller understanding of the psyche of informal sector entrepreneurs

urban marginality and labour market restructuring local authority tenants and employment in an inner london borough this paper examines the changing employment circumstances of local authority tenants in the inner london borough of camden within the context of the radical labour market restructuring which occurred in london during the last third of the 20th century it draws upon survey data from the 1960s and 1990s in order to assess the scale and impact of employment and housing changes on camden s local authority tenant population the final part of the paper uses qualitative work history data to illustrate how the tenants themselves have experienced the increasingly flexible and precarious metropolitan labour market various types of employment trajectory are outlined in relation to labour market participation unemployment and gendered patterns of paid and unpaid work

a theory of the politically optimal commodity tax a theory of the politically optimal tax is developed where tax rates are endogenous and determined by forces in the political market the theory is used to explain the levels of alcoholic beverage taxes between states in the united states it is shown that these rates are influenced by the ownership structure existing in the liquor industry the consumption externalities associated with drinking the minimum drinking age laws the earmarking of tax revenues the enforcement of regulations and real income

displacement and the new spaces for informal trade in the latin american city centre using evidence from cusco peru the paper examines the effects of the planned displacement of informal traders from city centre streets although more than 3500 traders were relocated to new off centre markets the research identifies the emergence of unplanned alternative city centre locations for informal trade especially the new courtyard markets the municipal led changes influenced strongly by concerns to enhance tourism reveal a process which displays many of the hallmarks of gentrification lower class traders were displaced from city centre streets for the benefit of middle class tourists and local people there was also gentrification of the trading activity itself by manipulating stall allocation and pricing structures to exclude the poorest traders from the new higher quality municipal markets the changing pattern of informal trading can be viewed as an unconventional barometer of the progress of policy led gentrification applicable to other cities in the developing world