on the concavity of the consumption function at least since keynes 1935 many economists have had the intuition that the marginal propensity to consume out of wealth declines as wealth increases nonetheless standard perfect certainty and certainty equivalent versions of intertemporal optimizing models of consumption imply a marginal propensity to consume that is unrelated to the level of household wealth we show that adding income uncertainty to the standard optimization problem induces a concave consumption function in which as keynes suggested the marginal propensity to consume out of wealth or transitory income declines with the level of wealth

the fisher hypothesis and the forecastability and persistence of inflation abstract for the period 1860 to 1939 the simple correlation of the u s commercial paper rate with the contemporaneous inflation rate is 0 17 the corresponding correlation for the period 1950 to 1979 is 0 71 this paper attributes this apparent change in the fisher relation to differences in the stochastic process of inflation rather than a change in any structural relationship between interest rates and expected inflation contrary to recent claims in the literature there is little evidence of inflation non neutrality in data from the pre world war i period

nowcasting and the taylor rule actual federal funds rates in the u s have at times deviated from the recommendations of a simple taylor rule this paper proposes a nowcasting taylor rule that preserves the form of the taylor rule but encompasses realistic assumptions on information observable to policymakers because contemporaneous inflation rates and output gaps are not observable at the time policy is set policymakers must form nowcasts the optimal nowcast will depend in part on forecast uncertainty whenever policymakers have asymmetric costs to over and underpredicting inflation and output empirical evidence shows that actual policy rates are consistent with those recommended by a nowcasting taylor rule

the inexorable and mysterious tradeoff between inflation and unemployment this paper discusses the short run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment although this tradeoff remains a necessary building block of business cycle theory economists have yet to provide a completely satisfactory explanation for it according to the consensus view among central bankers and monetary economists a contractionary monetary shock raises unemployment at least temporarily and leads to a delayed and gradual fall in inflation standard dynamic models of price adjustment however cannot explain this pattern of responses reconciling the consensus view about the effects of monetary policy with models of price adjustment remains an outstanding puzzle for business cycle theorists several years ago i gave myself a peculiar assignment i decided to try to summarise all of economics in ten simply stated principles the purpose of this task was to introduce students to the economic way of thinking in the first chapter of my textbook principles of economics i figured if god could boil all of moral philosophy down to ten commandments i should be able to do much the same with economic science most of the ten principles i chose were microeconomic and hard to argue with they involved the importance of tradeoffs marginal analysis the benefits of trade market efficiency market failure and so on i allocated the last three principles to macroeconomics the first of these was a country s standard of living depends on its ability to produce goods and services which i viewed as the foundation of all growth theory the second was prices rise when the government prints too much money which i took to be the essence of classical monetary theory the last of my ten principles is the subject of today s lecture society faces a short run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment perhaps not surprisingly this statement turned out to be controversial when my publisher sent out the manuscript for review a few readers objected

disinflation with imperfect credibility abstract this paper presents a theory of the real effects of disinflation as in new keynesian models price adjustment iis staggered across firms as in new classical models credibility is imperfect the monetary authority may not complete a promised disinflation the combination of imperfect credibility and staggering yields more plausible results than either of these assumptions alone in particular an announced disinflation reduces expected output if credibility is sufficiently low

does trading votes in national elections change election outcomes although forbidden in democratic states a market for votes could improve efficiency this paper examines the way trading votes will change the outcome of an election a two party model with two phases is presented in the pre trading phase the two parties set their agendas consisting of a direct subsidy and an income tax in the trading phase voters buy and sell votes on the basis of rational voter behavior and a given income distribution it is shown that the outcome of the election depends mainly on how the selling voters are distributed among the voters

information rigidities inflation perceptions and the media lessons from the euro cash changeover the objective of theoretical models of information rigidities is to capture the fact that people are constrained in their ability to acquire and process all available information given that most people obtain their information about the economy from the media press coverage of the economy may exert an influence on peoples attitudes this paper tests for this influence by examining consumers inflation perceptions in the aftermath of the euro cash changeover which serves as a natural experiment using a new data set that quantifies the intensity and tone of media reports we document that media reporting has had a statistically significant and economically meaningful impact on inflation perceptions and contributed to their sharp rise in the aftermath of the euro cash changeover and to the divergence between inflation perceptions and actual inflation rates jel e53 d83

expectations as a source of macroeconomic persistence evidence from survey expectations in a dynamic macro model abstract embedding survey expectations in a standard dsge model helps to identify key slope parameters in standard relationships dramatically reduces the need for lagged dependent variables often motivated by price indexation and habit formation and obviates the need for autocorrelated structural shocks in the key equations formal statistical tests demonstrate that much of the persistence in aggregate data is better accounted for by slow moving expectations rather than by habits indexation and autocorrelated structural shocks

survey measures of expected u s inflation of real interest rates and cash flows for decisions concerning investment expenditures international capital flows and exchange rate movements hinge in large part on expected real yield differentials across countries the federal reserve needs reliable measures of expected inflation to formulate and gauge the thrust of monetary policy in fact inflation expectations have become more important to the fed given the diminished stability of the link between the monetary aggregates and gdp expenditures since the early 1980s and the greater role which has been thrust upon expected real short term interest rates in the implementation of federal reserve policy the issue of rationality of inflation expectations that is the extent to which agents form expectations without making systematic mistakes in their beliefs about what inflation will be is important if inflation expectations are formed rationally labor and financial markets will strongly tend to neutralize the potential redistributive effects of inflation over time financial capital will flow efficiently within and across national borders moreover some of the stronger claims of new classical macroeconomics like the claim that only unexpected monetary policy actions will

optimal portfolio choice for long horizon investors with nontradable labor income this paper examines how risky labor income and retirement affect optimal portfolio choice with idiosyncratic labor income risk the optimal allocation to stocks is unambiguously larger for employed investors than for retired investors consistent with the typical recommendations of investment advisors increasing idiosyncratic labor income risk raises investors willingness to save and reduces their stock portfolio allocation towards the level of retired investors positive correlation between labor income and stock returns has a further negative effect and can actually reduce stockholdings below the level of retired investors financial advisors typically recommend that their customers invest more in stocks than in safe assets when they are working and to shift their investments towards safe assets when they retire jagannathan and kocherlakota 1996 malkiel 1996 by contrast the standard academic models of portfolio choice merton 1969 1971 samuelson 1969 show that retirement is irrelevant for portfolio decisions if investment opportunities are constant and human capital is tradable in this case the fraction of wealth optimally invested in risky assets should be constant over the lifetime of an individual recent research building on the pioneering work by merton 1971 shows that time varying investment opportunities result in portfolio rules with an intertemporal hedging component whose magnitude depends on the investment horizon of the investor kim and omberg 1996 balduzzi and lynch 1997 brennan schwartz and lagnado 1997 brandt 1999 campbell and viceira 1999 2001 barberis 2000 with time variation in investment opportunities retirement and death play an instrumental role as events that exogenously fix the individual s investment horizon more importantly retirement also marks the time at which individuals stop working and thereafter must live off their lifetime savings and possibly transfers from this perspective retirement matters for portfolio choice

expectations and the stability problem for optimal monetary policies eine auf den fundamentaldaten beruhende regelbindung der geldpolitik ohne selbstverpflichtung die bei vollkommen rationalen erwartungen der privaten akteure optimal ware ist instabil wenn diese akteure de facto den ublichen regeln des adaptiven lernens folgen dieses problem lasst sich dadurch beheben dass die erwartungen privater akteure berucksichtigt und in geeigneter weise in die optimale geldpolitik einbezogen werden diese eindeutige schlusfolgerung gilt auch dann wenn sich der geldpolitische entscheidungstrager und die privaten akteure in einem simultanen lernprozess befinden unsere ergebnisse zeigen wie wichtig es ist die geldpolitik angemessen zu gestalten und dabei nicht nur die fundamentaldaten sondern auch direkt die beobachteten erwartungen privater haushalte und unternehmen zu berucksichtigen

political economy of pension plans impact of institutions gender and culture abstract national pension systems are an important part of financial intermediation and worker welfare in most countries but how and why do they differ internationally controlling for important political economic and social institutions we document that international differences in pension progressivity or how pensions reflect lifetime earnings are negatively related to masculinity uncertainty avoidance individualism long term orientation employment rights average pension levels social trust and economic inequality we also find that pension progressivity is positively related to the economic and societal role of women the extent of catholicism as well as political voice and accountability these results provide important insights for both public policy and mnc managers

disagreement and biases in inflation expectations empirical work documents substantial disagreement in inflation expectations obtained from survey data furthermore the extent of such disagreement varies systematically over time in a way that reflects the level and variance of current inflation this paper oers a simple explanation for these facts based on asymmetries in the forecasters costs of over and under predicting inflation our model implies biased forecasts with positive serial correlation in forecast errors and a cross sectional dispersion that rises with the level and the variance of the inflation rate it also implies that forecast errors at dierent horizons can be predicted through the spread between the short and long term variance of inflation we find empirically that these patterns are present in inflation forecasts from the survey of professional forecasters a constant bias component not explained by asymmetric loss and rational expectations is required to explain the shift in the sign of the bias observed for a substantial portion of forecasters around 1982

dual class shares a review the majority of firms traded in the world s three largest stock exchanges london new york and tokyo follow the one share one vote principle however in other countries dual classes of shares are common place for example 50 percent of the publicly traded dutch firms have non voting equity and approximately 75 percent of the publicly traded danish finnish and swedish firms have shares that differ in their voting rights this paper reviews the arguments as to why firms create dual classes of shares their effect on firm value and the relative prices of shares that differ only in their voting rights copyright 1992 by oxford university press

indivisible labor lotteries and equilibrium abstract this paper considers an economy where labor is indivisible and agents are identical although the discontinuity in labor supply at the individual level disappears as a result of aggregation it is shown that indivisible labor has strong consequences for the aggregate bahavior of the economy it is also shown that optimal allocations involve lotteries over employment and consumption

is inflation sticky abstract new keynesian sticky price models predict that monetary policy can affect real variables however they also predict that inflation can be reduced without depressing output or employment in fact bringing down inflation is costly presenting a challenge to the new keynesian model two departures from the new keynesian model predict costly disinflation one assumes sticky inflation rather than sticky prices while the other assumes less than perfectly rational expectations taking into account information from surveys of inflation expectations i find the evidence suggests that inflation is not sticky and that inflation expectations are less than perfectly rational

optimal consumption portfolio choices and retirement planning abstract we examine consumption and investment decisions in a life cycle model with habit formation stochastic opportunity set stochastic wages and labor supply flexibility retirement is taken into account by specifying an age at which labor earnings stop but consumption spending continues explicit solutions are obtained for optimal consumption labor supply and the financing portfolio we examine the structure and determinants of the optimal portfolio we also study the effects of the retirement date and of habits on optimal decisions finally we conduct a preliminary analysis to assess the effects of a liquidity constraint on optimal consumption leisure choices

indivisible labor and the business cycle abstract a growth model with shocks to technology is studied labor is indivisible so all variability in hours worked is due to fluctuations in the number employed we find that unlike previous equilibrium models of the business cycle this economy displays large fluctuations in hours worked and relatively small fluctuations in productivity this finding is independent of individuals willingness to substitute leisure across time this and other findings are the result of studying and comparing summary statistics describing this economy an economy with divisible labor and post war u s time series

on the fluctuations in consumption and market returns in the presence of labor and human capital an equilibrium analysis abstract we examine the effects of human capital on consumption stock market and other fluctuations in a general equilibrium continuous time model a representative consumer worker investor derives utility from consumption and leisure a representative firm demands labor as the sole input to a stochastic production technology driven by general possibly nonmultiplicative shocks for cobb douglas utility and multiplicative shocks labor is nonstochastic and consumption and stock market volatility are equated as under no human capital deviations from this are analyzed for logarithmic utility and constant elasticity of substitution production technology cases are identified where the presence of labor causes consumption to be smoother than the stock market

a unified model of entrepreneurship dynamics we develop an incomplete markets q theoretic model to study entrepreneurship dynamics precautionary motive borrowing constraints and capital illiquidity lead to underinvestment conservative debt use under consumption and less risky portfolio allocation the endogenous liquid wealth illiquid capital ratio w measures time varying financial constraint the option to accumulate wealth before entry is critical for entrepreneurship flexible exit option is important for risk management purposes investment increases and the private marginal value of liquidity decreases as w decreases and exit becomes more likely contrary to predictions of standard financial constraint models we show that the idiosyncratic risk premium is quantitatively significant especially for low w

retirement spending and biological age abstract we solve a lifecycle model in which the consumer s chronological age does not move in lockstep with calendar time instead biological age increases at a stochastic non linear rate in time like a broken clock that might occasionally move backwards in other words biological age could actually decline our paper is inspired by the growing body of medical literature that has identified biomarkers which indicate how people age at different rates this offers better estimates of expected remaining lifetime and future mortality rates it isn t farfetched to argue that in the not too distant future personal age will be more closely associated with biological vs calendar age thus after introducing our stochastic mortality model we derive optimal consumption rates in a classic yaari 1965 framework adjusted to our proper clock time in addition to the normative implications of having access to biological age our positive objective is to partially explain the cross sectional heterogeneity in retirement spending rates at any given chronological age in sum we argue that neither biological nor chronological age alone is a sufficient statistic for making economic decisions rather both ages are required to behave rationally

lifetime consumption and investment retirement and constrained borrowing retirement flexibility and inability to borrow against future labor income can significantly affect optimal consumption and investment with voluntary retirement there exists an optimal wealth to wage ratio threshold for retirement and human capital correlates negatively with the stock market even when wages have zero or slightly positive market risk exposure consequently investors optimally invest more in the stock market than without retirement flexibility both consumption and portfolio choice jump at the endogenous retirement date the inability to borrow limits hedging and reduces the value of labor income the wealth to wage ratio threshold for retirement and the stock investment

inflation expectations as a policy tool abstract we assess the prospects for central banks using inflation expectations as a policy tool for stabilization purposes we review recent work on how expectations of agents are formed and how they affect their economic decisions empirical evidence suggests that inflation expectations of households and firms affect their actions but the underlying mechanisms remain unclear especially for firms two additional limitations prevent policy makers from being able to actively manage inflation expectations first available surveys of firms expectations are systematically deficient which can only be addressed through the creation of large nationally representative surveys of firms second neither households nor firms expectations respond much to monetary policy announcements in low inflation environments we provide suggestions for how monetary policy makers could pierce this veil of inattention through new communication strategies as well as the potential pitfalls to trying to do so

inattentive consumers and international business cycles this paper presents and studies the properties of a sticky information exchange rate model where consumers and producers update their information sets infrequently introducing inattentive consumers has important implications through a mechanism resembling the limited participation models exchange rate volatility observed in the data can be addressed for reasonable values of risk aversion the model generates more persistence in output consumption and employment which brings us closer to the data impulse responses to monetary shocks are hump shaped consistent with the empirical evidence forecast errors of inattentive consumers provide a channel to reduce the correlation of relative consumption and real exchange rate the decline in the correlation is quantitatively small for our benchmark model model generates a substantial amount of consumer forecast errors when producers are attentive and productivity shocks are persistent this specification results in a large decline of the correlation of real exchange rate and relative consumption due to consumer inattentiveness when trade elasticity is set to values at the low end of macro estimates or at higher values consistent with sectoral estimates the correlation is in the negative territory with inattentive consumers

inattentive professional forecasters abstract using the ecb survey of professional forecasters to characterize expectations at the micro level we emphasize two new facts forecasters i fail to systematically update their forecasts and ii disagree even when updating it is moreover found that forecasters have predictable forecast errors these facts are qualitatively supportive of recent models of inattention and suggest a setup where agents imperfectly process information due to both sticky information a la mankiw reis and noisy information a la sims however building and estimating such an expectation model we find that it cannot quantitatively replicate the error and disagreement observed in the data

saving and investing for early retirement a theoretical analysis we study optimal consumption and portfolio choice in a framework where investors adjust their labor supply through an irreversible choice of their retirement time we show that investing for early retirement tends to increase savings and reduce an agent s effective relative risk aversion thus increasing her stock market exposure contrary to common intuition an investor might find it optimal to increase the proportion of financial wealth held in stocks as she ages and accumulates assets even when her income and the investment opportunity set are constant the model predicts a decrease in risk aversion following strong market gains like those observed in the nineties

optimal consumption and investment under time varying liquidity constraints we study consumption and investment decisions given realistic time varying constraints on borrowing we first consider the case where borrowing is constrained by a maximum debt to income ratio we then consider collateral borrowing with a maximum loan to value ratio the resulting implications for optimal policies differ considerably from those obtained in the existing literature based on fixed borrowing limits but are consistent with those documented in the empirical literature

valuation optimal asset allocation and retirement incentives of pension plans we provide a framework in which we link the valuation and asset allocation policies of defined benefits plans with the lifetime marginal productivity schedule of the worker and the pension plan formula in turn we examine the retirement policies that are implied by the primitives of the model and the value of pension obligations our model provides an explicit valuation formula for a stylized defined benefits plan the optimal asset allocation policies consist of the replicating portfolio of the pension liabilities and the growth optimum portfolio independent of the pension liabilities we show that the worker will retire when the ratio of pension benefits to current wages reaches a critical value which depends on the parameters of the pension plan and the discount rate using numerical techniques we analyze the feedback effect of retirement policies on the valuation of plans and on the asset allocation decisions article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

new keynesian economics and the phillips curve models with sticky prices are an important part of new keynesian economics the author shows that several of the new keynesian models imply a formulation that is similar to the expectations augmented phillips curve of milton friedman and edmund phelps he then presents new estimates of the new keynesian phillips curve the author uses two proxies for price expectations survey based measures and an econometric based measure originally developed by bennett mccallum 1976 overall the results are consistent with the model but the survey based results are more precise suggesting that the surveys may be better measures of actual expectations copyright 1995 by ohio state university press

how family status and social security claiming options shape optimal life cycle portfolios we show how optimal household decisions regarding work retirement saving portfolio allocations and life insurance are shaped by the complex financial options embedded in u s social security rules and uncertain family transitions our life cycle model predicts sharp consumption drops on retirement an age 62 peak in claiming rates and earlier claiming by wives versus husbands and single women moreover life insurance is mainly purchased on men s lives our model which takes social security rules seriously generates wealth and retirement outcomes that are more consistent with the data in contrast to earlier and less realistic models

unemployment risks and optimal retirement in an incomplete market we develop a new approach for solving the optimal retirement problem for an individual with an unhedgeable income risk the income risk stems from a forced unemployment event which occurs as an exponentially distributed random shock the optimal retirement problem is to determine an individual s optimal consumption and investment behaviors and optimal retirement time simultaneously we introduce a new convex duality approach for reformulating the original retirement problem and provide an iterative numerical method to solve it reasonably calibrated parameters say that our model can give an explanation for lower consumption and risky investment behaviors of individuals and for relatively higher stock holdings of the poor we also analyze the sensitivity of an individual s optimal behavior in changing her wealth level investment opportunity and the magnitude of preference for postretirement leisure finally we find that our model explains a countercyclical pattern of the number of unemployed job leavers

hedging in incomplete markets with hara utility in the context of merton s original problem of optimal consumption and portfolio choice in continuous time this paper solves an extension in which the investor is endowed with a stochastic income that cannot be replicated by trading the available securities the problem is treated by demonstrating using analytic and in particular viscosity solutions techniques that the value function of the stochastic control problem is a smooth solution of the associated hamilton jacobi bellman hjb equation the optimal policy is shown to exist and given in a feedback form from the optimality conditions in the hjb equation at zero wealth a fixed fraction of income is consumed for large wealth the original merton policy is approached we also give a sufficient condition for wealth under the optimal policy to remain strictly positive

comparing the point predictions and subjective probability distributions of professional forecasters we use data from the survey of professional forecasters spf to compare point predictions of gross domestic product gdp growth and inflation with the subjective probability distributions held by forecasters we find that most spf point predictions are quite close to the central tendencies of forecasters subjective distributions tend to be asymmetric with spf forecasters tending to report point predictions that give a more favorable view of the economy than do their subjective means medians modes

macroeconomic expectations of households and professional forecasters economists have long emphasized the importance of expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes yet there has been almost no recent effort to model actual empirical expectations data instead m acroeconomists usually simply assume that expectations are rational this paper shows that while empirical household expectations are not rational in the usual sense expectational dynamics are well captured by a model in which households views derive from news reports of the views of professional forecasters which in turn may be rational the model s estimates imply that people only occasionally pay attention to news reports this inattention generates stickyness in aggregate expectations with important macroeconomic consequences

unbundling the voting rights and profit claims of common shares we analyze a model of a hostile takeover attempt in which shareholders are free to sell common share voting rights as well as the shares themselves without taxation only welfare improving take overs succeed allowing vote sales has no effect on the success of attempted takeovers or the profits of incumbent management or raiders when taxes are levied however an inefficiently small number of value increasing takeovers succeed if vote sales are prohibited allowing vote sales facilitates such takeovers and raises welfare with taxation incumbents would never prefer to defend against take overs by purchasing votes but raiders might well prefer this method

intergenerational risk sharing and endogenous labour supply within funded pension schemes funded defined benefit pensions add to welfare on account of providing intergenerational risk sharing but lower it on account of inducing labour supply distortions we show that a properly designed funded defined benefit pension scheme involves a welfare improvement even if contributions are distortionary and even if individuals face potentially correlated wage and equity risks numerical calculations indicate that diversification gains from risk sharing are large compared to the losses related to labour supply distortions this result withstands a number of extensions like the introduction of a short sale constraint for individuals or the inclusion of a labour income tax

asymmetric preferences and the stability problem for optimal monetary policy rules this paper evaluates the stability properties of optimal monetary policy rules when professionals under adaptive learning have asymmetric preferences the asymmetric preferences require volatility estimates in real time an expectations based rule can stabilize the economy while a fundamentals based rule leads to instability

how social security and medicare affect retirement behavior in a world of incomplete markets this paper provides an empirical analysis of how the u s social security and medicare insurance system affect the labor supply of older males in the presence of incomplete markets for loans annuities and health insurance we estimate a detailed dynamic programming dp model of the joint labor supply and social security acceptance decision focusing on a sample of males in the low to middle income brackets whose only pension is social security the dp model delivers a rich set of predictions about the dynamics of retirement behavior and comparisons of actual vs predicted behavior show that the dp model is able to account for wide variety of phenomena observed in the data including the pronounced peaks in the distribution of retirement ages at 62 and 65 the ages of early and normal eligibility for social security benefits respectively we identify a significant fraction of health insurance constrained individuals who have no form of retiree health insurance other than medicare and who can only obtain fairly priced private health insurance via their employer s group health plan the combination of significant individual risk aversion and a long tailed pareto distribution of health care expenditures implies that there is a significant security value for these individuals to remain employed until they are eligible for medicare coverage at age 65 overall our model suggests that a number of heretofore puzzling aspects of retirement behavior can be viewed as artifacts of particular details of the social security rules whose incentive effects are especially strong for lower income individuals and those who do not have access to fairly priced loans annuities and health insurance

labor supply flexibility and portfolio choice in a life cycle model abstract this paper examines the effect of the labor leisure choice on portfolio and consumption decisions over an individual s life cycle the model incorporates the fact that individuals may have considerable flexibility in varying their work effort including their choice of when to retire given this flexibility the individual simultaneously determines optimal levels of current consumption labor effort and an optimal financial investment strategy at each point in his life cycle we show that labor and investment choices are intimately related the ability to vary labor supply ex post induces the individual to assume greater risks in his investment portfolio ex ante

portfolio choice in retirement health risk and the demand for annuities housing and risky assets in a life cycle model a retiree faces stochastic health depreciation and chooses consumption health expenditure and the allocation of wealth between bonds stocks and housing the model explains key facts about asset allocation and health expenditure across health status and age the portfolio share in stocks is low overall and is positively related to health especially for younger retirees the portfolio share in housing is negatively related to health for younger retirees and falls significantly in age finally out of pocket health expenditure as a share of income is negatively related to health and rises in age

a simple recursive forecasting model abstract we compare the performance of alternative recursive forecasting models a simple constant gain algorithm used widely in the learning literature both forecasts well out of sample and also provides the best fit to the survey of professional forecasters

heterogeneous information quality strategic complementarities and optimal policy design abstract the beauty contest framework of morris and shin 2002 is extended to allow sub groups within the population of agents to differ in the quality i e precision of their private information we discuss the inefficiency of the resulting model s equilibrium and assess the relative effectiveness in remedying this inefficiency of i a pigouvian tax scheme ii direct policy intervention by means of an instrument which can modify the state of the world the disclosure policy implications of each of these two policy approaches are also analyzed

experimental evidence on inflation expectation formation using laboratory experiments within a new keynesian sticky price framework we study the process of inflation expectation formation we focus on adaptive learning and rational expectations contrary to the previous literature that mostly studied simple heuristics using a test for rational expectations that allows heterogeneity of expectations we find that we cannot reject rationality for about 40 of subjects more than 20 of subjects are also best described by adaptive learning models where they behave like econometricians and update their model estimates every period however rather than using a single forecasting model switching between models describes their behavior better switching is more likely to occur when experimental economy is in a recession

optimal retirement with unemployment risks abstract this paper investigates the optimal retirement of an individual in the presence of involuntary unemployment risks and borrowing constraints in a complete market with frictions we use an intensity model and loading factors to illustrate the involuntary unemployment risks and frictions in unemployment insurance markets using reasonably calibrated parameters we observe that high involuntary unemployment intensity and loading factors could be important explanations for the empirical findings emphasized in recent studies we also find that an individual with high leisure demand after retirement reduces consumption during retirement and increases stockholdings as retirement time approaches

when can life cycle investors benefit from time varying bond risk premia we study the importance of time varying bond risk premia in a consumption and portfolio choice problem for a life cycle investor facing short sales and borrowing constraints tilts in the optimal asset allocation in response to changes in bond risk premia exhibit pronounced life cycle patterns we find that the investor is willing to pay an annual fee up to 1 to implement a strategy that optimally conditions on prevailing bond risk premia in addition to her age and wealth to solve our model we extend recently developed simulation based techniques to life cycle problems featuring multiple state variables and multiple risky assets

the structure of expectations of the weekly money supply announcement abstract this paper examines the structure of expectations of the weekly money supply announcement in the late 1970s the data used are from a weekly telephone survey of money market participants the rationality and structure of expectations are explored with the data organized in three ways the mean response to each weekly survey the pooled sample of individual responses and time series of responses by each individual in the survey the effect of data aggregation on rationality tests is investigated the structure of the expectations data are also examined and it is found that both strong regressive influences and adaptive learning characterize the data

corporate groups dual class shares and the value of voting rights abstract it is known that deviating from the one share one vote principle through the issue of non voting stock increases the value of outsiders voting rights we argue that the creation of a business group is another way to deviate from one share one vote and we show that it produces a larger voting share premium in holding companies as a consequence having both subsidiaries and non voting stock produces a multiplier effect on the voting premium the puzzling size of the premium in italy was never related to the interaction of pyramiding and non voting stock our empirical study confirms that the premium is larger for holding companies issuing non voting stock than for similar operating companies without non voting equity

a structural retirement model the life cycle model analyzed here constrains most work on the main job to be full time partial retirement entails a wage reduction and frequently a job change maximum likelihood estimates of utility function parameters are designed to incorporate information on the age of leaving full time work and the age of full retirement the model closely tracks retirement behavior including peaks in retirement activity at 62 and 65 the paper explores the relation of these peaks to nonlinearities in the budget constraint created by various retirement programs policy analyses based on this and on earlier models with simpler structures are compared the retirement choice is one of the more prominent manifestations of life cycle behavior the decision is the result of an interplay between an individual s preferences and a set of incentives which change in complicated ways as the individual progresses through his or her late 50 s and 60 s the purpose of this study is to formulate and estimate a structural model which incorporates in a fundamental way this interplay between lifetime preferences and incentives and to illustrate how such a model may be used to investigate retirement behavior a structural model of this type is essential for analyzing potential policy changes which can be expected to affect incentives in varying ways over a number of years in the life cycle the current study incorporates two structural features which have frequently been omitted from previous studies first the model requires that an individual who wishes to reduce work effort below full time must accept a reduced hourly wage rate in order to do so this reflects empirical evidence from micro data sets which indicates that around one third of older individuals engage in part time work at one time or another and that regardless of whether or not these older workers change jobs to obtain part time work they usually take wage cuts as compared to their previous full time work 2 the fact that an individual is willing to accept a lower wage rate in return for the opportunity to work fewer than full time hours contains important information about the preferences of the

household portfolio choice and retirement this study examines household portfolio choice through the retirement transition i show that couples significantly decrease their stock allocations after retirement whereas singles allocations remain relatively unchanged reallocations are concentrated among couples in which the wife is more risk averse than her husband husbands and wives respective retirement events are followed by opposite signed changes in stock allocations these findings are consistent with a model of collective household decision making in which spouses have heterogeneous risk preferences and suggest that dynamics in the distribution of intrahousehold bargaining power generate time varying household risk aversion

state dependent pricing and the general equilibrium dynamics of money and output economists have long suggested that nominal product prices are changed infrequently because of fixed costs in such a setting optimal price adjustment should depend on the state of the economy yet while widely discussed statedependent pricing has proved difficult to incorporate into macroeconomic models this paper develops a new tractable theoretical state dependent pricing framework we use it to study how optimal pricing depends on the persistence of monetary shocks the elasticities of labor supply and goods demand and the interest sensitivity of money demand

longevity risk retirement savings and financial innovation abstract over the last couple of decades unprecedented increases in life expectancy have raised important concerns for retirement savings we solve a life cycle model with longevity risk which can be hedged through endogenous saving and retirement decisions we investigate the benefits of financial assets designed to hedge the shocks to survival probabilities when longevity risk is calibrated to match forward looking projections those benefits are substantial this lends support to the idea that such hedging should be pursued by defined benefit pension plans on behalf of their beneficiaries finally we draw implications for optimal security design

a generalization of yaari s result on annuitization with optimal retirement abstract in this paper we generalize the following result of yaari 1965 on annuitization with an agent s optimal retirement it is optimal for individuals to annuitize all of their wealth in the absence of bequest motive we have other results that refine or extend the result of yaari 1965 full annuitization can be viewed as an american type option that allows an economic agent to exchange the value of labor income with the extra leisure that is brought about by annuitizing all of her wealth when the agent s wealth is above a certain wealth threshold annuitization is triggered otherwise it is not accordingly wealth plays a key role in controlling the distance to full annuitization

buying shares and or votes for corporate control we explore how allowing votes to be traded separately of shares may affect the efficiency of corporate control contests our basic set up and the nature of the questions continue the work of grossman and hart 1980 harris and raviv 1988 and blair golbe and gerard 1989 we consider three cases with respect to the allowable price offers for shares and for votes when they can be traded separately unrestricted price offers quantity restricted price offers and price offers contingent on winning our main results are characterizations of the equilibria and of the circumstances under which vote buying is harmful we show that allowing votes to be traded separately of shares results in inefficiencies in all the cases we study similarly allowing quantity restricted offers is also harmful but allowing conditional offers is not in itself detrimental to efficiency the paper also makes a methodological contribution to the analysis of takeover games with atomless shareholders it provides a way of dealing with asymmetric equilibria that must be dealt with for a complete analysis and it proves existence of an equilibrium copyright 2012 oxford university press

information induced heteroscedasticity in price expectations data this study tests the hypothesis that price expectations differ across individuals because they acquire different information about inflation if price information is a normal good then the amount of price information acquired will vary across individuals according to income education and other demand specific variables causing price expectations to be heteroscedastic with respect to these variables utilizing monthly household survey data the authors test the heteroscedasticity hypothesis and find support for the differential information model in addition they develop a novel method of incorporating the don t know response to questions about inflation into the estimation of price expectations copyright 1990 by mit press

implications of rational inattention abstract a constraint that actions can depend on observations only through a communication channel with finite shannon capacity is shown to be able to play a role very similar to that of a signal extraction problem or an adjustment cost in standard control problems the resulting theory looks enough like familiar dynamic rational expectations theories to suggest that it might be useful and practical while the implications for policy are different enough to be interesting

monetary policy expectations and commitment commitment in monetary policy leads to equilibria that are superior to those from optimal discretionary policies a number of interest rate reaction functions and instrument rules have been proposed to implement or approximate commitment policy we assess these rules in terms of whether they lead to a rational expectations equilibrium that is both locally determinate and stable under adaptive learning by private agents a reaction function that appropriately depends explicitly on private sector expectations performs particularly well on both counts

is there a retirement savings puzzle in this paper we ask whether households are saving enough for their retirement we use data on income expenditure and expenditure components to analyse patterns of behaviour at and around the time of retirement for successive date of birth cohorts we compare periods of unemployment to periods of retirement and separate expenditures into categories reflecting work related expenditures basic necessities and other goods we find that income typically falls by more at unemployment than retirement but the reverse is true for expenditure we observe falls in expenditure at retirement for all expenditure categories using a stochastic life cycle model including mortality rates we assess the anticipated impact of retirement on consumption against that of unemployment the inter relationship between goods and leisure explains a large part of the persistent fall in expenditure at retirement we argue that the only way in which the life cycle hypothesis could be reconciled with the remaining unanticipated dip in consumption would be with the systematic arrival of unexpected adverse information at the time of retirement

models of inflation expectations formation a comparison of household and economist forecasts comment in the third section of his paper models of inflation expectations formation a comparison of household and economist forecasts gramlich 1983 presents statistics suggesting that two survey measures of inflation expectations are biased and inefficient in this comment we show that the main results presented in his table 1 are generated using a misspecified model when the specification error is corrected we find that the michigan survey of household inflation expectations passes the standard tests for unbiasedness and weak tests for efficiency 1 however there remains doubt about the properties of the inflation expectation series derived from the livingston survey of professional economists 2 the particular results we review were presumably generated from ordinary leastsquares ols estimation of the following equation equation 2 in gramlich