divestment of foreign production operations this study investigates some determinants fo the divestment of foreign manufacturing operations by norwegian companies to date very few studies have taken a closer look at what might influence whether foreign subsidiaries are divested or not although foreign direct investment in principle represent long term commitments to foreign manufacturing operations divestments are in fact quite common this study shows that more than half of a sample of foreig subsidiaries woned by norwegian companies in 1982 wee divested within a period of ten years the empirical findings indicate that foreign divestment is inversely related to economic growth in the host country and that the propensity to divest is significantly higher for subsidiaries that had been acquired than for greenfield establishments also related horizontal subsidiaries are less likely to be divested than unrelated non horizontal subsidiaries

disinflation with imperfect credibility abstract this paper presents a theory of the real effects of disinflation as in new keynesian models price adjustment iis staggered across firms as in new classical models credibility is imperfect the monetary authority may not complete a promised disinflation the combination of imperfect credibility and staggering yields more plausible results than either of these assumptions alone in particular an announced disinflation reduces expected output if credibility is sufficiently low

foreign direct investment mode choice entry and establishment modes in transition economies in this study we bridge two streams of foreign direct investment literature specifically studies on establishment mode choice i e the choice between an acquisition and a greenfield establishment and studies on entry mode choice i e the choice between a wholly owned outlet and a subsidiary with shared ownership we arrive at a conceptual synthesis for an examination of the effects of the same predictors on the dual entry establishment mode choice made in the context of a single foreign investment we demonstrate that a parent firm s technological intensity international strategy and experience determine both establishment and entry mode choices moreover we apply williamson s new institutional economics to investigate the influence of institution building on multinational enterprises dual investment choice in the context of transition economies we test empirically the possible moderating effect of a host country s institutional environment we conclude that the degree of the host country s institutional advancement moderates the effect of both technological intensity and international strategy on the establishment and entry mode choice

environmental investment and policy with distortionary taxes and endogenous growth abstract recent studies consider public r d spending that affects abatement knowledge and endogenous growth distortionary taxes that affect capital formation pollution taxes that affect environmental degradation and regeneration that restores natural capital our model combines all those elements the combination affects prior results focusing on two parameters the need for distorting taxes and productivity of abatement knowledge relative to pollution first these two extensions can reverse prior findings that pollution tax revenue is always enough to pay for public r d second tax distortions and externalities alter prior findings that the ratio of public to private capital depends only on output elasticities third dynamics affect prior static findings about other public spending crowding out environmental public goods fourth a greater need for public spending can lead to greater increases in distorting taxes or pollution taxes fifth greater environmental regulation can mean growth is higher or lower even if welfare is higher

foreign entry cultural barriers and learning this paper examines the longevity of foreign entries hypotheses are developed on the mode start ups vs acquisitions and ownership structure wholly owned vs joint ventures in relation to cultural distance the hypotheses are tested within a framework of organizational learning using data on 225 entries that 13 dutch firms carried out from 1966 onwards results show that the presence of cultural barriers punctuates an organization s learning cultural distance is a prominent factor in foreign entry whenever this involves another firm requiring the firm to engage in double layered acculturation we also identify locational paths of learning the longevity of acquisitions is positively influenced by prior entries of the firm in the same country similarly the longevity of foreign entries in which the firm has a majority stake improves whenever the expanding firm engaged in prior entries in the same country and in other countries in the same cultural block

why and how fdi stocks are a biased measure of mne affiliate activity many international business ib studies have used foreign direct investment fdi stocks to measure the aggregate value adding activity of multinational enterprises mne affiliates in host countries we argue that fdi stocks are a biased measure of that activity because the degree to which they overestimate or underestimate affiliate activity varies systematically with host country characteristics first most fdi into countries that serve as tax havens generate no actual productive activity thus fdi stocks in such countries overestimate affiliate activity second fdi stocks do not include locally raised external funds funds widely used in countries with well developed financial markets or volatile exchange rates resulting in an underestimation of affiliate activity in such countries finally the extent to which fdi translates into affiliate activity increases with affiliate labor productivity so in countries where labor is more productive fdi stocks also result in an underestimation of affiliate activity we test these hypotheses by first regressing affiliate value added and affiliate sales on fdi stocks to calculate a country specific mismatch and then by regressing this mismatch on a host country s tax haven status level of financial market development exchange rate volatility and affiliate labor productivity all hypotheses are supported implying that fdi stocks are a biased measure of mne affiliate activity and hence that the results of fdi data based studies of such activity need to be reconsidered

optimal disinflationary paths abstract this paper characterizes optimal monetary policy in the context of a general equilibrium model with optimizing agents and staggered price setting starting from a steady state with positive inflation a rapid disinflation is desirable when announcements of future monetary policy are fully credible disinflationary policy yields substantial losses in output and employment when the monetary authority lacks credibility nevertheless the benefits of disinflation still exceed the costs disinflation often fails to be welfare improving however when lost seignorage revenues must be replaced using other distortionary taxes

gravity and culture in foreign portfolio investment abstract using panel regression estimates from the imf s cpis survey of foreign debt and equity portfolios across 174 originating and 50 destination countries from 2001 to 2007 we clarify the role of culture and extend the set of cultural variables that have been investigated in gravity models of foreign portfolio investment fpi incorporating hofstede s cultural dimensions of individualism masculinity power distance and uncertainty avoidance we show how cultural traits in both originating and destination countries as well as the cultural distances that separate them interact with geographic distance and other gravity variables to determine global fpi patterns we find hitherto unreported effects and show that while gravity always deters fpi aspects of culture and cultural distance can offset this by supporting fpi

place space and geographical exposure foreign subsidiary survival in conflict zones this study focuses on the role of geography in foreign subsidiary survival in host countries afflicted by political conflict we argue that survival is a function of exposure to conflicts and depends on the characteristics of place the conflict zone and space geographic concentration and dispersion of other home country firms the roles of place and space are explored using street level analysis of geographic information systems data for 670 japanese multinational enterprises mne subsidiaries in 25 conflict afflicted host countries over 1987 2006 through dynamic modeling of conflict zones as stretchable and shrinkable places relative to subsidiary locations we develop a means of characterizing a foreign subsidiary s exposure to multiple threats in its geographic domain our results show that greater exposure to geographically defined threats in both a static and a dynamic sense reduces the likelihood of mne survival the findings indicate moreover that both concentration and dispersion with other firms affect survival however the effects depend on where the firm is spatially located whether the firm is in a conflict zone and with whom home country peers or sister subsidiaries

economic growth and energy consumption causal nexus viewed through a bootstrap rolling window one puzzling results in the literature on energy consumption economic growth causality is the variability of results particularly across sample periods sample sizes and model specification in order overcome these issues this paper analyzes the causal links between energy consumption and economic growth for g 7 countries using bootstrap granger non causality tests with fixed size rolling subsamples the data used includes annual total energy consumption and real gross domestic product gdp series from 1960 to 2006 for g 7 countries excluding germany for which the sample period starts from 1971 using the full sample bootstrap granger causality test we find that there is predictive power from energy consumption to economic growth only for canada however parameter instability tests show that none of the estimated models have constant parameters and hence the full sample results are not reliable analogous to the full sample results the results obtained from the bootstrap rolling window estimation indicate no consistent causal links between energy consumption and economic growth we however find that causal links are present between the series in various subsamples furthermore these subsample periods correspond to significant economic events indicating that the findings are not statistical artefacts but correspond to real economic changes our results encompass previous findings and offer an explanation to varying findings

determinants of export orientation of foreign production by u s multinationals an inter country analysis this paper examines the role of structural and policy factors in explaining a country s attractiveness as a base for export oriented production by u s mnes empirical analysis finds wage rates and industrial capability to be important determinants of export oriented production attracted by a country exports generated by relocation are found to be dependent upon intra firm imports u s mnes are found to be using their hosts as export bases more selectively

effects of carbon taxes in an economy with prior tax distortions an intertemporal general equilibrium analysis abstract this paper analyzes the costs of carbon taxes in a model that recognizes interactions between this tax and pre existing taxes first we examine the extent to which costs of a u s carbon tax are reduced when its revenues finance cuts in income taxes such use of revenues significantly reduces but does not eliminate the overall policy costs the positive overall costs reflect the carbon tax s focus on intermediate inputs and its relatively narrow base in comparison with income taxes we also examine the sensitivity of the carbon tax s costs to the level of pre existing taxes for any given use of revenues welfare costs rise significantly with pre existing tax rates indicating that models disregarding pre existing taxes may substantially understate the costs of new environmental tax initiatives

global economic activity and crude oil prices a cointegration analysis abstract this paper empirically investigates the cointegrating relationship between crude oil prices and global economic activity the kilian economic index is used as an indicator of global economic activity based on a supply demand framework and the cointegration theory we find that real futures prices of crude oil are cointegrated with the kilian economic index and a trade weighted us dollar index and crude oil prices are influenced significantly by fluctuations in the kilian economic index through both long run equilibrium conditions and short run impacts we also develop an empirically stable data coherent and single equation error correction model ecm which has sensible economic properties empirical results based on the ecm show that the adjustment implied by a permanent change in the kilian economic index is a relatively drawn out process

foreign direct investment in the united states an analysis by country of origin given the large size and rapid growth of foreign direct investment in the united states this subject is a central concern of u s firms and u s government policymakers this study explores the factors that contribute to the explanation of fdi in the united states by country of origin of investment evidence from the past twelve years shows that the main significant positive influences are home country s exports to the united states and home country market size significant negative influences include the home country s imports from the united states the cultural and geographic distances of the home country from the united states and the exchange rate fx

oil prices and the terms of trade abstract the combination of substantial terms of trade variability and unstable correlation patterns of trade prices with output and trade volumes has led some to suggest a break in the link between trade volumes and prices we find that oil accounts for much of the variation in the terms of trade over the last twenty five years and its quantitative role varies significantly over time and since our dynamic general equilibrium model predicts that the economy responds differently to oil supply shocks than to other shocks changes in their relative importance helps to account for the unstable correlations in the data

does environmental dumping lead to delocation environmental dumping is often viewed as an instrument used by some countries in the attempt to attract foreign investments stated otherwise the delocation of firms would be a major outcome of a stiff environmental policy in this paper we study the impact of a strict anti pollution policy pursued by a government on domestic firms locational decisions and determine the main variables that interact with such a policy some preliminary welfare implications are also provided

age analysis of the impact of a carbon energy tax on the irish economy a computable general equilibrium model with specific detail in taxation and energy use is developed in this paper to quantify the impact of the implementation of energy taxation to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in ireland benchmark data combining physical energy and emissions data and economic data in the form of a social accounting matrix sam had to be compiled from various data sources because energy and pollution accounts from the seea are not available for ireland we find that the reduction target for energy related co2 emissions in ireland of 25 8 compared to 1998 levels can be achieved with a carbon energy tax of 10 15 euros per tonne of co2 though fuel switching is important in meeting the target this result is more sensitive to the possibilities for producers to substitute away from energy use welfare would fall but only by small percentages production and consumption patterns would change more significantly with a shift in demand from fuels with a high emission factor to energy sources with a lower carbon intensity and from energy to other commodities this paper confirms that a carbon energy tax leads to greater emission reductions than an equivalent uniform energy tax the latter has a stronger negative impact on the less polluting energy sectors whereas the carbon tax greatly stimulates the use of renewable energy and reduces the use of peat and coal the new sam the model and the application to energy taxes contribute to a better informed debate on environmental policy in ireland

the economic and budgetary impact of climate policy in portugal carbon taxation in a dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous public sector behavior the objective of this paper is to study hbox co 2 taxation in its dual role as a climate and fiscal policy instrument using a dynamic general equilibrium model of the portuguese economy which highlights the mechanisms of endogenous growth and incorporates a detailed modeling of public sector behavior and accounts in addition to the conventional marginal abatement cost curve we present a pair of complementary marginal abatement cost curves which highlight the impact hbox co 2 taxation has on economic performance and public debt and are therefore directly relevant to the terms of the policy debate these marginal abatement cost curves provide an effective tool for understanding the rate at which the environmental effectiveness economic costs and budgetary effects change with the tax level our results indicate that hbox co 2 taxes can be an important policy instrument for reducing emissions and promoting fiscal consolidation although this will come at a cost in terms of economic performance simulation results suggest that a tax of 17 00 euros per hbox tco 2 can satisfy existing climate policy targets the tax revenue effects together with reductions in public spending yield a 4 8 reduction in public debt these desirable outcomes come at the cost of a 1 3 reduction in gdp over the long term our analysis highlights that limiting public consumption expenditures can contribute to larger reductions in public debt albeit at a marginally greater cost to economic activity in turn reducing public investment although effective in reducing public debt produces a much larger negative economic impact this evokes an important trade off particularly pronounced in the present debates regarding austerity measures in the eu between fiscal consolidation efforts and efforts to promote convergence to eu standards of living these results further highlight that modeling assumptions with respect to public spending decision are not innocuous an exogenous trajectory for public spending suggests substantially smaller gdp effects and substantially larger public debt effects for any given emissions target

views on peak oil and its relation to climate change policy abstract definitions of fossil fuel reserves and resources and assessed stock data are reviewed and clarified semantics explain a large stake of conflict between advocate and critical voices on peak oil from a holistic sources sinks perspective limited carrying capacity of atmospheric sinks not absolute scarcity in oil resources will impose tight constraints on oil use eventually observed peaks in oil production in nearby years will result from politically imposed limits on carbon emissions and not be caused by physical lack of oil resources peak oil belief induces passive climate policy attitudes when suggesting carbon dioxide emissions will peak naturally linked to dwindling oil supplies active policies for reducing emissions and use of fossil fuels will also encompass higher energy end use prices revenues obtained from higher levies on oil use can support financing energy efficiency and renewable energy options but when oil producers charge the higher prices they can pump new oil for many decades postponing peak oil to occur while extending carbon lock in

trends in foreign direct investment flows a theoretical and empirical analysis this paper seeks to provide a rationale for changing trends in the flow and determinants of foreign direct investment fdi as a result of macro economic and firm strategy considerations we identify several factors that impact on such trends and develop propositions that could explain the phenomenon generically the study then provides preliminary empirical support for the propositions presented and outlines the path for further research needed to investigate more causal links the statistical analysis of investments by us multinational enterprises mnes reveals significant changes in the regional distribution of fdi and a change in some of its traditional determinants results show that us mnes are now making increasing investments into asia to exploit low wage levels and to secure entry into new markets

hard heads soft hearts tough minded economics for a just society introduction murphys law of economic policy needed hard heads and soft hearts striking a balance between unemployment and inflation do we know how to manage the national economy who will protect us from protectionism cleaning up the environment sometimes cheaper is better it can happen here the improbably saga of tax reform on breaking murphys law

a new carbon tax in portugal a missed opportunity to achieve the triple dividend in 2014 the portuguese government appointed a commission for environmental tax reform that formulated a carbon tax proposal designed to achieve three dividends to help portugal meet the european union s target for emissions reductions by 2030 to boost long term employment and gdp above their pre carbon tax levels and to strengthen public finances by lowering public indebtedness a key feature of this proposal was a judicious set of mixed strategies to recycle all carbon tax revenues back into the economy in this note we show how the carbon tax that the portuguese parliament eventually approved deviated from such guidelines and ultimately failed to achieve the triple dividend we argue that authorities need to quickly amend the existing legislation to avoid this misguided attempt turning into a missed opportunity to improve environmental macroeconomic and fiscal outcomes

technology and technical change in the mit eppa model potential technology change has a strong influence on projections of greenhouse gas emissions and costs of control and computable general equilibrium cge models are a common device for studying these phenomena using the mit emissions prediction and policy analysis eppa model as an example two ways of representing technology in these models are discussed the sector level description of production possibilities founded on social accounting matrices and elasticity estimates and sub models of specific supply or end use devices based on engineering process data a distinction is made between exogenous and endogenous technical change and it is shown how because of model structure and the origin of key parameters such models naturally include shifts in production process that reflect some degree of endogenous technical change as a result the introduction of explicit endogenous relations should be approached with caution to avoid double counting

the impact of institutional hazards on foreign multinational activity a contingency perspective prior studies have shown that institutional hazards in the form of formal governance deficiencies and informal cultural distance are both negatively related to the amount of foreign multinational activity in countries we argue that the strength of these negative relationships varies systematically with the type of foreign activity horizontal or vertical and the type of institutional hazard governance or cultural because institutional hazards striking vertical affiliates generally also have negative consequences for other parts of a multinational enterprise mne while those striking horizontal affiliates do not we hypothesize that institutional hazards are more negatively related to vertical foreign activity than to horizontal foreign activity since cultural hazards can generally be reduced or resolved once they materialize while governance hazards cannot we also hypothesize that the impact of governance hazards on each type of foreign activity is more negative than the impact of cultural hazards on that type of activity a panel data analysis of sales by us foreign affiliates to affiliated and local unaffiliated customers over the period 1996 2004 lends support to these hypotheses our findings thus show that the impact of institutional hazards on foreign mne activity is more complex than previously assumed

the effect of political events on united states direct foreign investment a pooled time series cross sectional analysis this paper examines the effect of political events on the manufacturing direct foreign investment mdfi decisions of u s multinational corporations the relationship between political events and nonpolitical factors and mdfi is investigated through regression analysis of pooled time series 21 years and cross sectional 24 countries data and through various tests of the homogeneity of the relationship across groups of countries the study finds that the relationship between political events in mdfi is different for less developed countries as opposed to developed countries for the less developed countries both inter nation and intra nation conflict and cooperation affect mdfi in contrast u s mdfi in developed countries appears to be affected only by inter nation conflict and cooperation

the effect of national culture on the choice of entry mode characteristics of national cultures have frequently been claimed to influence the selection of entry modes this article investigates this claim by developing a theoretical argument for why culture should influence the choice of entry two hypotheses are derived which relate culture to entry mode choice one focusing on the cultural distance between countries the other on attitudes towards uncertainty avoidance using a multinomial logit model and controlling for other effects the hypotheses are tested by analysing data on 228 entries into the united states market by acquisition wholly owned greenfield and joint venture empirical support for the effect of national culture on entry choice is found

cross border acquisition abandonment and completion the effect of institutional differences and organizational learning in the international business service industry 1981 2001 based on the concepts of north s 1990 political economy of national institutions and economic behavior we investigate how formal and informal institutional features influence the likelihood that a cross border acquisition deal will be completed as well as the time taken for its completion after announcement additionally we study how past experience with completed acquisition deals moderates the effects of institutional differences we focus on a relatively new context the pre completion stage of acquisition processes we test our hypotheses using data from 2389 announced cross border acquisition deals in the international business service industry 1981 2001 we find that differences in national formal and informal institutions explain part of the variation in the likelihood that an announced cross border acquisition deal will be completed as well as the duration of the deal making in addition organizational learning moderates the effects of institutional distance past experience with completed cross border acquisition deals increases the likelihood of a subsequent deal completion in institutionally closer environments but shortens the deal duration in institutionally distant environments

complexity context and governance in biotechnology alliances this study explores the effect of coordination needs on alliance governance we examine coordination needs that arise as a consequence of the characteristics and the context of the alliance we posit that alliance characteristics and contextual factors influence alliance form and equity investment levels we evaluate the effects of the complexity of technology transfer and strategic complexity of the alliance we also study contextual factors represented by the distance between the intellectual property protection regimes of the home countries of the participants the focal firm s prior presence in the alliance country and its primary expertise in the industry we offer contrasting predictions based on appropriation and coordination perspectives our results demonstrate support for a dominant coordination perspective with alliance characteristics and some contextual factors influencing alliance form appropriation concerns play a weaker role and receive less support

implications of fossil fuel constraints on economic growth and global warming abstract energy security and global warming are analysed as 21st century sustainability threats best estimates of future energy availability are derived as an energy reference case erc an explicit economic growth model is used to interpret the impact of the erc on economic growth the model predicts a divergence from 20th century equilibrium conditions in economic growth and socio economic welfare is only stabilised under optimistic assumptions that demands a paradigm shift in contemporary economic thought and focused attention from policy makers fossil fuel depletion also constrains the maximum extent of global warming carbon emissions from the erc comply nominally with the b1 scenario which is the lowest emissions case considered by the ipcc the ipcc predicts a temperature response within acceptance limits of the global warming debate for the b1 scenario the carbon feedback cycle used in the ipcc models is shown as invalid for low emissions scenarios and an alternative carbon cycle reduces the temperature response for the erc considerably compared to the ipcc predictions our analysis proposes that the extent of global warming may be acceptable and preferable compared to the socio economic consequences of not exploiting fossil fuel reserves to their full technical potential

trade linkages and macroeconomic effects of the price of oil in this paper we assess the impact of oil price shocks on oil producer and oil consuming economies var models for different countries are linked together via a trade matrix as in abeysinghe 2001 as expected we find that oil producers here russia and canada benefit from oil price shocks for example a large oil shock leading to a price increase of 50 boosts russian gdp by about 6 however oil producers are hurt by indirect effects of positive oil price shocks as economic activity in their exporter countries suffers for oil consumers the effects are more diverse in some countries output falls in response to an oil price shock while other countries seem to be relatively immune to oil price changes finally indirect effects are also detected for oil consumer countries those countries which trade more with oil producers gain indirect benefits via higher demand from oil producing countries in general the largest negative total effects from positive oil price shocks are found for japan china the usa finland and switzerland while other countries in our sample seem to have fared quite well during recent positive oil price shocks the indirect effects are negative for russia finland germany and netherlands

does the time consistency problem explain the behavior of inflation in the united states abstract this paper derives the restrictions imposed by barro and gordon s theory of time consistent monetary policy on a bivariate time series model for inflation and unemployment and tests those restrictions using quarterly us data from 1960 through 1997 the results show that the data are consistent with the implications of the theory for the long run behavior of the two variables indicating that the theory can explain the initial rise and subsequent fall of inflation over the past four decades the results also suggest that the theory must be extended to account more fully for the short run dynamics that appear in the data

time consistent policy and persistent changes in inflation abstract this paper presents a model of dynamically consistent monetary policy that explains changes in inflation over time in the model as in the postwar united states adverse supply shocks trigger increases in inflation high inflation persists until a tough policymaker causes a recession to disinflate the paper also proposes an approach to selecting a unique equilibrium in infinite horizon models of monetary policy

buying greenhouse insurance the economic costs of carbon dioxide emission limits in recent years a growing concern that the increasing accumulation of greenhouse gases will lead to undesirable changes in global climate has resulted in a number of proposals both in the united states and internationally to set physical targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions but what will these proposals cost based on the authors earlier ground breaking work buying greenhouse insurance outlines a way to think about greenhouse effect decisions under uncertainty it describes an insightful model for determining the economic costs of limiting carbon dioxide emissions produced by burning fossil fuels and provides a solid analytical base for rethinking public policy on the farreaching issue of global warming manne and richels present region by region estimates of the costs that would underlie an international agreement using a computer model known as global 2100 they analyze the economic impacts of limiting c02 emissions under alternative supply and conservation scenarios the results clearly indicate that a reduction in emissions is not the sole policy response to potential climate change following a summary of the greenhouse effect its likely causes and possible consequences manne and richels take up issues that concern the public at large they provide an overview of global 2100 look at how the u s energy sector is likely to evolve under businessas usual conditions and under carbon constraints and describe the concept of greenhouse insurance they consider possible global agreements including an estimate of benefits that might result from trading in an international market in emission rights they conclude with a technical description directed toward modeling specialists alan manne is professor of operations research at stanford university richard richels is director of the energy analysis and planning department at the electric power research institute

explaining the national cultural distance paradox past studies of the relationship between national cultural distance and entry mode choice have produced conflicting results some scholars find cultural distance associated with choosing wholly owned modes others find cultural distance linked to a preference for joint ventures in this paper we provide both theoretical and empirical evidence to explain the discrepant findings and thus help to resolve the national cultural distance paradox

governance and uncertainty the trade off between administrative control and commitment this study elaborates upon the motives for initiating equity based collaborations vs acquisition of another firm already having a desired technology we characterize both minority direct investments and joint ventures as options to defer either internal development or acquisition of a target firm in domains where learning about growth opportunities dominates investment activity this incremental mode of governance economizes on the cost of committing resources to a technology with an uncertain value using a sample of 402 transactions in the biotechnology industry we find strong support for the theoretical model the findings suggest that the cost of commitment in the face of technological uncertainty may offset the administrative benefits of hierarchical governance 1998 john wiley sons ltd

discretionary monetary policy and inflation persistence rational expectations models of staggered price wage contracts have failed to replicate the observed persistence in inflation and unemployment during disinflationary periods the current literature on this persistency puzzle has focused on augmenting the nominal contract model with imperfect credibility and learning in this paper i re examine the persistency puzzle by focusing on the discretionary nature of monetary policy i show that when the central bank is allowed to re optimize a quadratic loss function each period imperfect credibility and learning even in the absence of staggered contracts can generate a significant amount of inflation persistence and employment losses during a disinflationary period

what makes and what does not make a real option a study of equity shares in international joint ventures this paper examines the boundaries of real options logic with an application to joint ventures jvs we distinguish between forms of uncertainty that are resolved endogenously and those that are resolved exogenously and theorize that only exogenous uncertainty will have the impact predicted by real options theory on a foreign investor s choice of how large an equity share to take in a jv we theorize that macroeconomic and institutional variables generate exogenous uncertainty whereas by contrast cultural distance and choices pertaining to corporate scope and product or process development activities involve endogenous sources of uncertainty that investors can both assess and act upon without having to wait and see using a sample of 6472 sino foreign jvs we find support for our predictions we discuss and implement proper methods to test for the existence of null effects as is relevant to establish the boundaries of a theory such as real options theory we draw implications for research and practice on jvs specifically equity share decisions which deserve more attention and real options including suitable uses and desirable extensions of the concept

a lower vat rate on electricity in portugal towards a cleaner environment better economic performance and less inequality abstract this article addresses the budgetary economic distributional and environmental impact of increasing the vat on electricity in portugal the analysis is carried out in the context of a new multi sector multi household dynamic general equilibrium model simulation results suggest that a permanent increase from 6 to 23 improves the public budget and albeit marginally co2 emissions but it leads to detrimental economic and distributional effects as the economy in portugal begins to recover after the great financial crisis and the budgetary situation becomes less constraining pressure is mounting for this vat increase to be reversed this mixed bag of results is an important element for the debate reverting to a lower vat is desirable as it would improve economic performance and have positive distributional effects the question is how to compensate for the loss of tax revenues to offset the adverse budgetary effects of a lower vat we consider several revenue raising strategies our simulation results suggest that an offsetting increase in either the general vat tax rate or the tax on petroleum products would yield more favorable effects from all relevant perspectives economic distributional and environmental while mostly keeping intact the budgetary benefits

union wage settlements during a disinflation this paper examines the role of union wage contracts in the persistence of inflation and the implication of these contracts for the problem of disinflation in the united states a quantitative model of overlapping con tracts explicitly oriented toward the major union sector is developed the model takes account of expectations of future wage price and employment conditions as in more aggregated models that have been used in macroeconomic research in addition the distribution of workers according to contract length as well as deferred wage increases and escalator clauses are explicitly used in the model the main aim of the model is to determine the constraints which these contracts impose on disinflation paths the model indicates that the maximum speed of disinflation is extremely slow in the early phases if a rise in unemployment is to be avoided but increases considerably before the new lower rate of inflation is reached the disinflation path is considerably slower than that observed after hyperinflation periods however the existence of a path of inflation reduction raises questions about whether the institution of union wage con tracts is really the direct cause of costly disinflations or whether their influence works indirectly by raising credibility problems about a monetary disinflation this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the state as strategist in international business research no matter what strategy managers choose cross national differences in states strategic capabilities and objectives affect multinational corporations capabilities to manage interdependent operations in this paper we develop four attribute dimensions along which states strategic economic capabilities vary we then apply these dimensions to show how they contribute to familiar international business models of managerial process mnc strategy and organizational structure and country competitiveness

a macroeconomic analysis of energy subsidies in a small open economy we construct a dynamic model of a small open economy to analyze the effects of large energy subsidies the model includes domestic energy production and consumption trade in energy at world market prices as well as private and public sector production the model is calibrated to egypt and used to study reforms such as reductions in energy subsidies with corresponding reductions in various tax instruments or increases in infrastructure investment we calculate the new steady states transition paths to the new steady state and the size of the associated welfare losses or gains our main results for a 15 cut in energy subsidies are 1 steady state gross domestic product drops in most of our experiments as less energy is used in production 2 steady state consumption rises in most of our experiments 3 welfare can rise by as much as 0 6 in consumption equivalent terms 4 the largest gains in terms of output and of welfare can be obtained when savings from energy subsidy cuts are used to fund additional infrastructure investment jel e21 e63 h55 j26 j45 to understand the effects of subsidies and taxes on an energy sector and on consumption in a given country requires establishing a complete picture of the market in which it operates and of the various policies past and present that have applied to it iea 2010c 11 1 introduction a report by the international energy agency iea 2010a in 2010 identified 37 countries that together account for 95 of global subsidized fossil fuel consumption and found that total fuel consumption subsidies were about 557 billion in 2008 a stark increase from 342 billion in 2007 countries with the highest subsidies for energy turn out to be smaller oil producing countries like iran 65 billion in subsidies in 2009 20 of gross domestic product gdp saudi arabia venezuela and egypt iea 2010b the underpricing of energy can lead to excess consumption of energy that together with the need to finance these subsidies can have adverse economic effects both intra and intertemporally energy subsidies may therefore have large adverse effects on capital accumulation economic growth and hence welfare especially for future generations the iea estimates that many countries forgo faster growth of up to 2 6 by subsidizing energy iea 2010c since 2008 many major oil subsidizing countries have started to bring their prices in line with world market prices among them china russia india and indonesia many of the concerns about the inefficiency of energy subsidies have focused on environmental aspects and green house gas ghg emissions in particular the iea 2010c estimates that a world wide reduction of fuel subsidies could decrease ghg emissions in the long run by around 10 there are relatively few studies of the short term and long term macroeconomic effects of reductions in energy subsidies these effects are complex and require an explicit dynamic modeling approach there are many interrelated effects 1 phasing out energy subsidies alters the price of energy relative to other consumption goods and hence not only the quantity demanded for energy but also the demand for other goods 2 the degree of complementarity substitutability between these consumption goods together with the expectations of the time path for the phase out influences savings behavior and thus capital accumulation of households 3 changing energy subsidies influences use of energy in production whether energy is a complement or a substitute to other factors of production influences total output and marginal products of all factors of production 4 changes in factor payments influence household income and thus consumption and savings behavior 5 phasing out energy subsidies allows for other changes in the government budget such as changes in tax rates or other government expenditures which in turn will influence firm and household behavior

environmental risks and joint venture sharing arrangements multinational enterprises mnes have responded to the open door policies of socialist countries in recent years by investing in their economies through joint ventures mnes must formulate their investment strategies to control and manage the environmental risks peculiar to a traditional centrally planned economy cpe in which contextual and transactional environments are blurred joint venture sharing arrangements may be structured to control exposures to uncertainties and to align the interests of transactional parties mostly state owned enterprises to those of the venture this study tests the hypothesis that a foreign investor s share in a joint venture in a cpe is inversely correlated with 1 the amount of uncertainties and risks and 2 the external dependency of the venture on the contextual and transactional relationships of the host country the hypothesis is supported by empirical evidence from data on american joint ventures in china

globalization and location choice an analysis of us multinational firms in 1980 and 2000 in this paper we examine foreign location choices of the top 100 us multinational corporations mncs in 1980 and 2000 we first ask whether there has been a change in mnc foreign location choice in this two decade period second we explore the underlying reasons of location change by focusing on country level factors accounting for firm industry and regional level explanations our findings suggest first that the extent of mncs activities around the globe is more extensive than assumed by regionalists arguments and well beyond ohmae s triad but still less widespread than claimed by the globalists the two main traditions within the globalization regionalization debate second we uncover an interesting de location pattern in this period third we develop an integrative framework where both economic and institutional cultural arguments are shown to influence mncs foreign location choice in different ways we conclude with a discussion of our findings and provide suggestions for future research

on inflation and output with costly price changes a simple unifying result this paper determines the real effects of credible disinflation when price setting is staggered the results are surprising a fairly quick disinflation causes a boom this finding suggests that nominal price rigidity alone does not explain why disinflation is costly in actual economies this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the intergovernmental network of world trade igo connectedness governance and embeddedness membership in certain intergovernmental organizations igos such as the world trade organization has long been argued to stimulate trade yet evidence linking igos to trade is mixed the authors argue that identifying the influence of igos requires attention not only to the institutions igos enact but also to the network through which they enact them this approach allows them to demonstrate that trade between two countries increases by an average of 58 with every doubling of the strength of igo connection between the countries they also contribute to debates regarding the mechanisms through which structural relationships influence economic behavior by showing that substantial trade benefits occur not only through economic igos but also through igos that were formed for social and cultural purposes and that connections through igos that are organizationally strong have more impact than those through minimalist igos

governance infrastructure and us foreign direct investment this paper examines the statistical importance of governance infrastructure as a determinant of us foreign direct investment fdi in broad terms governance infrastructure represents attributes of legislation regulation and legal systems that condition freedom of transacting security of property rights and transparency of government and legal processes our econometric analysis uses a two stage estimation procedure in the first stage the probability that a country is an fdi recipient is estimated the results indicate that countries that fail to achieve a minimum threshold of effective governance are unlikely to receive any us fdi countries that receive no us fdi are typically countries that do not promote free and transparent markets that have ineffective governments and that often have legal systems that are not rooted in english common law in the second stage the analysis is restricted to those countries that did receive fdi flows the estimated equations focus on the determinants of the amount of fdi received given that a country is a recipient of us fdi governance infrastructure including the nature of the legal system is an important determinant of the amount received

policy and non policy determinants of u s equity foreign direct investment this study examined the effects of policy and non policy variables on the location of new u s direct investment abroad as distinct from reinvested earnings of existing affiliates using 1977 and 1982 benchmark data the data revealed statistically significant effects for investment incentives positive performance requirements negative and host country effective tax rates negative with interesting differences between the two time periods and between developed versus developing countries significance was also found for non policy variables such as political stability cultural distance gdp per capita and infrastructure

conceptualizing and measuring distance in international business research recurring questions and best practice guidelines distance is a central concept in international business research yet there is debate about the construct as well as its operationalization in this editorial we address three of the most important recurring questions posed by authors editors and reviewers by examining the theory methods and data of distance research we discuss 1 how to theorize on distance and 2 what method and 3 what data to use when constructing a distance index we develop practical recommendations grounded in theory illustrating and supporting them by calculating cross country distance indices for all available country pairs and two of the most used distance indices cultural and institutional we show that whereas a specific method to calculate distance may matter to some extent the choice for a specific cultural or institutional framework to measure cultural or institutional distance has a major impact on country pair distances overall this editorial highlights the importance of matching data and method to the theoretical argument

on the environmental economic and budgetary impacts of fossil fuel prices a dynamic general equilibrium analysis of the portuguese case abstract this paper examines the influence of fossil fuel prices on carbon dioxide emissions economic activity and the public sector account in portugal it uses a dynamic general equilibrium model which highlights the mechanisms of endogenous growth and includes a detailed modeling of the public sector fuel price scenarios are based on forecasts by the us department of energy doe us the international energy agency iea oecd and ihs global insight inc the differences in relative fuel prices among the three scenarios lead to substantially different environmental impacts higher fuel prices in the doe us scenario lead to a 10 2 reduction in the policy effort required to meet the eu 2020 emission targets while relative price changes in the iea oecd scenario result in a 19 2 increase in the required policy effort and decreasing fuel prices increase the emissions deficit by 95 9 under the ihs scenario in terms of the long term economic impacts our results suggest a 2 2 reduction in gdp in the doe us scenario and 1 9 in the iea oecd scenario and an increase of 1 4 in the ihs scenario as to the budgetary impact higher fuel prices lead to lower tax revenues which coupled with a reduction in public spending translates to lower public deficits from a methodological perspective our results highlight the importance of the mechanisms of endogenous growth a scenario of higher fuel prices would under exogenous economic growth assumptions result in larger baseline emissions growth substantially smaller economic effects and rather different budgetary effects from a policy perspective our results highlight the importance of fossil fuel prices in defining the level of policy intervention required for compliance with international and domestic climate change legislation

the construct of institutional distance through the lens of different institutional perspectives review analysis and recommendations this paper presents a review and critique of the 20 year old literature on institutional distance which has greatly proliferated we start with a discussion of the three institutional perspectives that have served as a theoretical foundation for this construct organizational institutionalism institutional economics and comparative institutionalism we use this as an organizing framework to describe the different ways in which institutional distance has been conceptualized and measured and to analyze the most common organizational outcomes that have been linked to institutional distance as well as the proposed explanatory mechanisms of those effects we substantiate our qualitative review with a meta analysis which synthesizes the main findings in this area of research building on our review and previous critical work we note key ambiguities in the institutional distance literature related to underlying theoretical perspectives and associated mechanisms distance versus profile effects and measurement we conclude with actionable recommendations for improving institutional distance research

theoretical foundations of emerging economy business research in probing theoretically into central and eastern europe transactions resources and institutions we outlined the contributions of research in central and eastern europe cee to theoretical debates in business research in this retrospective we reflect upon the evolution of the field over the past decade with the fading impact of cee s distinct shared history we suggest that cee best be analyzed as emerging economies rather than as a distinct geographic entity emerging economy business research is converging on common themes and shared theoretical ideas while identifying critical variations that constrain generalizations among and beyond emerging economies this research thus highlights the need to develop a better understanding of the boundary conditions of scholarly theories of business knowledge over the past decade the institution based view has emerged from distinct intellectual traditions in institutional economics organizational theory and the analysis of business government bargaining research in these converging lines of theorizing places contextual variations at the center of explanations of business phenomena around the world we suggest that the institution based view is evolving toward a paradigm and offer suggestions on how to advance this research agenda further in particular by exploring how firms engage with different sets of potentially conflicting institutions at multiple levels and locations

endogenous technological change in climate change modelling this article investigates the impact on optimal co2 abatement and carbon tax levels of introducing endogenous technological change in a macroeconomic model of climate change we analyse technological change as a function of cumulative capacity as incorporated recently in energy systems models our calculations confirm that including endogenous innovation implies earlier emission reduction to meet atmospheric carbon concentration constraints however the effect is stronger than suggested in the literature moreover the development of non fossil energy technologies constitutes the most important opportunity for emission reductions optimal carbon tax levels reducing fossil energy use are lower than usually advocated