does product market competition increase strike activity evidence from the uk although many studies have examined the effect of labour market characteristics macroeconomic fluctuations and workplace level factors on strike activity much less is known about industry level determinants of industrial conflict and in particular the role of product market competition i examine the effect of competition on strike activity using evidence from a natural experiment of policy reform the introduction of cartel legislation in the uk in the late 1950s my econometric analysis which takes advantage of the fact that different industries were affected to varying degrees by cartel policy establishes that both the number of strikes and the number of working days lost as a result of strikes increased significantly when competition intensified after the abolition of cartels i propose an interpretation of these results with reference to theoretical models of bargaining with asymmetric information

imperfect information and strikes an analysis of canadian experience 1967 82 to test their hypothesis that the propensity to strike is affected less by the actual balance of bargaining power than by the parties uncertainty about their relative power the authors perform a probit analysis of data on 1 871 collective agreements negotiated in the canadian manufacturing sector between 1967 and 1982 they find consistent with their hypothesis that some characteristics of individual bargaining units the relevant industries and the economy as a whole that affect both the quantity and reliability of information needed to assess relative bargaining power do have significant value in predicting strike incidence across industries and over time

employment rents and the incidence of strikes a new measure of labor market tightness on workers behavior the employment rent is modeled as a determinant of workplace conflict an empirical estimate of the employment rent workers expected cost of job loss is calculated it is argued that the cost of job loss affects strike incidence this relationship is tested by estimating an econometric model of strike incidence for the united states from 1955 to 1983 the cost of job loss is shown to explain a large percentage of the variation in strike incidence the cost of job loss is a far superior explanatory variable than the unemployment rate which is commonly used in strike models copyright 1987 by mit press

structural workshop paper discrete choice models of consumer demand in marketing marketing researchers have used models of consumer demand to forecast future sales to describe and test theories of behavior and to measure the response to marketing interventions the basic framework typically starts from microfoundations of expected utility theory to obtain an econometric system that describes consumers choices over available options and to thus characterize product demand the basic framework has been augmented significantly to account for quantity choices to accommodate purchases of several products on a single purchase occasion multiple discreteness and multicategory purchases and to allow for asymmetric switching between brands across different price tiers these extensions have enabled researchers to bring the analysis to bear on several related marketing phenomena of interest this paper has three main objectives the first objective is to articulate the main goals of demand analysis forecasting measurement and testing and to highlight several considerations associated with these goals our second objective is to describe the main building blocks of individual level demand models we discuss approaches built on direct and indirect utility specifications of demand systems and we review extensions that have appeared in the marketing literature the third objective is to explore a few emerging directions in demand analysis including considering demand side dynamics combining purchase data with primary information and using semiparametric and nonparametric approaches we hope researchers new to this literature will take away a broader perspective on these models and see the potential for new directions in future research

incentives pay and performance a study of australian employees the paper analyses the determinants of self reported work effort using a 1988 survery of australian employees while controlling for the endogeneity of the firm s choice of incentives and pay it is found that direct incentive schemes have predicted effects and the efficiency wage hypothesis is supported pay and work effort are positively correlated two efficiency wage models are tested akerlof s gift exchange model and work discipline arguments regarding monitoring difficulties and threats of dismissal the latter argument is broadly consistent with the data

optimal design of pro conservation incentives abstract payments for environmental services pes schemes have become an increasingly accepted and popular mode for governmental and non governmental agencies to use in addressing local and regional declines in ecosystem services in pes schemes payments can either be tied to indicators of actions for service provision or to indicators of the generated service itself performance payments are synonymous for this second group i e payments are completely contingent on the procurement of an environmental good or service such a focus raises several practical issues during implementation we review and translate key aspects of the economic theory of incentives into the context of performance payment schemes with special attention paid to two practical issues risks outside the individual s control and distortion in the measurement of environmental services four different incentive payment approaches are presented and the effects of risk and distortion on optimal incentives are discussed the investigation of each payment approach is accompanied by a discussion of examples from the field

an analysis of the relation between the stewardship and valuation roles of earnings in this paper we seek a deeper understanding of how accounting information is used for valuation and incentive contracting purposes we explore linkages between weights on earnings in compensation contracts and in stock price formation a distinction between the valuation and incentive contracting roles of earnings in paul 1992 produces the null hypothesis that valuation earnings coefficients vecs and compensation earnings coefficients cecs are unrelated our empirical analyses of the relations between earnings and both stock prices and executive compensation data at the firm and industry levels over the period 1971 2000 rejects paul s 1992 hypothesis of no relation we also document an increasing weight over time on other public performance information captured by stock returns in the determination of cash compensation specifically we find that the incentive coefficient on returns is significantly higher in the second of two equal sample subperiods relative to the incentive coefficient on earnings

a factor analytic probit model for representing the market structure in panel data internal market structure analysis infers both brand attributes and consumer preferences for those attributes from preference or choice data the authors exploit a new method for estimating probit models from panel data to infer market structures that can be displayed in few dimensions even though the model can represent every possible vector of purchase probabilities

endogeneity in brand choice models applications of random utility models to scanner data have been widely presented in marketing for the last 20 years one particular problem with these applications is that they have ignored possible correlations between the independent variables in the deterministic component of utility price promotion etc and the stochastic component or error term in fact marketing mix variables such as price not only affect brand purchasing probabilities but are themselves endogenously set by marketing managers this work tests whether these endogeneity problems are important enough to warrant consideration when estimating random utility models with scanner panel data our results show that not accounting for endogeneity may result in a substantial bias in the parameter estimates

intertemporal cost allocation and managerial investment incentives a theory explaining the use of economic value added as a performance measure this paper provides a formal analysis of how managerial investment incentives are affected by alternative allocation rules when managerial compensation is based on accounting measures of income that include allocations for investment expenditures the main result is that there exists a unique allocation rule that always induces the manager to choose the efficient investment level the income measure created by this allocation rule is usually referred to as residual income or economic value added

contracting theory and accounting abstract this paper reviews agency theory and its application to accounting issues i discuss the formulation of models of incentive problems caused by moral hazard and adverse selection problems i review theoretical research on the role of performance measures in compensation contracts and i compare how information is aggregated for compensation purposes versus valuation purposes i also review the literature on communication including models where the revelation principle does not apply so that nontruthful reporting and earnings management can take place the paper also discusses capital allocation within firms including transfer pricing and cost allocation problems

effects of brand preference product attributes and marketing mix variables in technology product markets we develop a demand model for technology products that captures the effect of changes in the portfolio of models offered by a brand as well as the influence of the dynamics in its intrinsic preference on that brand s performance to account for the potential correlation in the preferences of models offered by a particular brand we use a nested logit model with the brand e g sony at the upper level and its various models e g mavica fd dsc etc at the lower level of the nest relative model preferences are captured via their attributes and prices we allow for heterogeneity across consumers in their preferences for these attributes and in their price sensitivities in addition to heterogeneity in consumers intrinsic brand preferences together with the nested logit assumption this allows for a flexible substitution pattern across models at the aggregate level the attractiveness of a brand s product line changes over time with entry and exit of new models and with changes in attribute and price levels to allow for time varying intrinsic brand preferences we use a state space model based on the kalman filter which captures the influence of marketing actions such as brand level advertising on the dynamics of intrinsic brand preferences hence the proposed model accounts for the effects of brand preferences model attributes and marketing mix variables on consumer choice first we carry out a simulation study to ensure that our estimation procedure is able to recover the true parameters generating the data then we estimate our model parameters on data for the u s digital camera market overall we find that the effect of dynamics in the intrinsic brand preference is greater than the corresponding effect of the dynamics in the brand s product line attractiveness assuming plausible profit margins we evaluate the effect of increasing the advertising expenditures for the largest and the smallest brands in this category and find that these brands can increase their profitability by increasing their advertising expenditures we also analyze the impact of modifying a camera model s attributes on its profits such an analysis could potentially be used to evaluate if product development efforts would be profitable

optimizing retail assortments retailers face the problem of finding the assortment that maximizes category profit this is a challenging task because the number of potential assortments is very large when there are many stock keeping units skus to choose from moreover sku sales can be cannibalized by other skus in the assortment and the more similar skus are the more this happens this paper develops an implementable and scalable assortment optimization method that allows for theory based substitution patterns and optimizes real life large scale assortments at the store level we achieve this by adopting an attribute based approach to capture preferences substitution patterns and cross marketing mix effects to solve the optimization problem we propose new very large neighborhood search heuristics we apply our methodology to store level scanner data on liquid laundry detergent the optimal assortments are expected to enhance retailer profit considerably 37 3 and this profit increases even more to 43 7 when sku prices are optimized simultaneously

an analysis of the use of accounting and market measures of performance in executive compensation contracts prior research has provided useful insights into the structure of compensation plans and their incentive effects however one important limitation of these studies is the virtual absence of any cross sectional analyses of the attributes of compensation contracts 2 this absence is related in part to the problems associated with controlling for other factors that affect compensation that is compensation contracts are

the value of precontract information about an agent s ability in the presence of moral hazard and adverse selection we analyze the expected value of information about an agent s type in the presence of moral hazard and adverse selection information about the agent s type enables the principal to sort screen agents of different types the value of the information decreases in the variability of output and the agent s risk aversion two factors that are typically associated with the severity of the moral hazard problem however the value of the information about agent type first increases but ultimately decreases in the severity of adverse selection the decrease comes about because the means available to the principal to induce effort namely the pay performance sensitivity must also be used to sort screen agents and these two goals conflict this decline in value occurs despite the monotonically increasing importance of the information in determining the principal s expected profits further we show that the peak value of information occurs at a predictable level of adverse selection these results imply that over some range the importance of the information will be increasing and the value of the information will be simultaneously decreasing in the severity of adverse selection

modeling asymmetric competition the effects of the marketing actions of one brand can be distributed among its competitors market shares in a complex manner this paper presents and illustrates methods for modeling brand competition and brand strategies in markets where competitive effects can be differentially and asymmetrically distributed we discuss the empirical specification parameter estimation and competitive strategy implications of the models proposed price and advertising competition among eleven brands of an australian household product is used to illustrate the application of these procedures

effect of strike activity on firm value the article examines the stock market s reaction to labor management problems and employee strikes a discussion is presented about various categories of strike costs and cumulative abnormal return

is 75 of the sales promotion bump due to brand switching no only 33 is abstract several researchers have decomposed sales promotion elasticities based on household scanner panel data a key result is that the majority of the sales promotion elasticity approximately 74 on average is attributed to secondary demand effects brand switching and the remainder is attributed to primary demand effects timing acceleration and quantity increases the authors demonstrate that this result does not imply that if a brand gains 100 units in sales during a promotion the other brands in the category lose 74 units the authors offer a complementary decomposition measure based on unit sales the measure shows the ratio of the current cross brand unit sales loss to the current own brand unit sales gain during promotion the authors report empirical results for this measure they also derive analytical expressions that transform the elasticity decomposition into a decomposition of unit sales effects these expressions show the nature of the difference between the two decompositions to ga

the use of accounting and security price measures of performance in managerial compensation contracts a discussion abstract it is commonly observed that the compensation paid to senior level executives depends on both accounting and security price measures of performance the articles by kim and suh bushman and indjejikian and sloan which i have been invited to discuss examine the issue of how much weight to place on these two measures in the contract the first two papers analyze the role that earnings can play in removing the noise in stock price in a rational expectations pricing model the sloan paper analytically and empirically examines the role that earnings can play in removing macroeconomic factors from stock price

logit estimates of strike incidence from canadian contract data logit estimates of strike incidence are made based on a unique and comprehensive data set of 2 437 collective agreements the appropriate level of aggregation since that is where bargaining occurs the results are interpreted through a theoretical framework emphasizing that strikes are more likely when the joint costs of using the strike mechanism are low relative to the cost of alternative mechanisms for achieving the same purposes such functions of strikes are to generate information elicit truth telling establish reputations provide catharsis and solve intraorganizational conflict

union membership in the united states 1973 1981 this paper reports estimates of union membership gathered from may current population surveys from 1973 to 1981 the authors present data by occupation industry selected states and smsas race gender and educational attainment the paper both extends and differs from that by freeman and medoff which presents unionism estimates for the private sector for 1968 75 to facilitate longitudinal analysis this paper reports three year moving averages of occupational and industry data and annual estimates of demographic classifications the data include public sector as well as private sector workers and they exclude workers not covered by the national labor relations act also the authors provide only union membership estimates not estimates on workers covered by union contracts this paper suggests that the percentage of all workers that are unionized in the united states remained fairly constant over the 1973 81 period

accounting income stock price and managerial compensation abstract this paper employs an agency model where a manager has a two dimensional action choice to study how the information content of earnings affects the design of compensation contracts based on earnings and price price is modeled as an endogenous variable that reflects all available information including earnings two settings are contrasted in the first earnings and price reflect the same underlying information about firm value while in the second earnings reflect a subset of the information reflected in price it is shown that differences in information content substantially alter the characteristics of compensation contracts based on earnings and price

are incentive contracts rigged by powerful ceos we argue that some powerful ceos induce boards to shift the weight on performance measures toward the better performing measures thereby rigging incentive pay a simple model formalizes this intuition and gives an explicit structural form on the rigged incentive portion of ceo wage function using u s data we find support for the model s predictions rigging accounts for at least 10 of the compensation to performance sensitivity and it increases with ceo human capital and firm volatility moreover a firm with rigged incentive pay that is one standard deviation above the mean faces a subsequent decrease of 4 8 in firm value and 7 5 in operating return on assets

choice map inferring a product market map from panel data this paper describes choice map a model that infers a product market map from panel data choice map is a stochastic brand choice model a random utility quantal choice model and a multidimensional scaling procedure choice map combines the parsimony of stochastic choice models the rationale of random utility models and the ability of multidimensional scaling procedures to simultaneously infer both brand positions and consumer preferences from preference choice data choice map assumes that consumers have stationary purchase probabilities for the observational period which makes the model best suited to frequently bought mature product categories neither experimental nor survey data are required traditional mapping methods that scale such data may not yield the same structure for low involvement products as will a procedure like choice map that scales behavioral data choice map s descriptive and predictive validity exceeds that of an alternative stochastic brand choice model the dirichlet multinomial for a test data set

plant level concession bargaining the author investigates the reasons for the diversity in concession bargaining experience among plants in the meatpacking and tire industries in 1981 negotiations about one third of the plants in each industry engaged in concession bargaining and the others did not the author hypothesizes that this pattern resulted from interplant differences in the likelihood of layoffs or shutdowns measured by factors such as plant age and size relative wage level and nature of product regression analysis of the data from union and employer sources supports the author s hypothesis

combining micro and macro data in microeconometric models or panel samples to improve accuracy of estimation in this paper we show how to do this efficiently we show that the gains from use of marginal information can be substantial we also discuss how to test the compatibility of sample and marginal information

measuring market power in the ready to eat cereal industry the ready to eat cereal industry is characterized by high concentration high price cost margins large advertising to sales ratios and numerous introductions of new products previous researchers have concluded that the ready to eat cereal industry is a classic example of an industry with nearly collusive pricing behavior and intense nonprice competition this paper empirically examines this conclusion in particular i estimate price cost margins but more importantly i am able empirically to separate these margins into three sources i that which is due to product differentiation ii that which is due to multi product firm pricing and iii that due to potential price collusion the results suggest that given the demand for different brands of cereal the first two effects explain most of the observed price cost margins i conclude that prices in the industry are consistent with noncollusive pricing behavior despite the high price cost margins leading firms are able to maintain a portfolio of differentiated products and influence the perceived product quality it is these two factors that lead to high price cost margins

optimal managerial contracts and equilibrium security prices recent developments in economic theory have focused attention on efficient methods for providing incentives within a corporation especially to top management jensen meckling 12 have examined some implications of incentive or agency problems for corporate finance in this paper we combine a simple model of security market equilibrium with that of an optimal managerial incentive contract using results of harris raviv 8 and holmstrom 9 we provide a rationale for including security prices in the managerial incentive contracts of publicly held firms in this model we also show that non systematic diversifiable risks will be considered in the capital budgeting decisions of a managerial firm operated in the interests of its stockholders this is in contrast to the implication of the arbitrage pricing theory a similar result follows from the capital asset pricing model which abstracts from incentive problems and suggests that only systematic risks ought to be considered the optimal contract model of the corporation takes the following view of the firm since decision makers within a firm are not sole owners of the business but employed agents the decisions which they make depend on the incentives which the organization provides these incentives are embodied explicitly in employment contracts and implicitly through the threat of dismissal or effect on reputation the contract whether explicit or not describes the decision maker s anticipation of the consequences to him conditional on various observable outcomes these outcomes are used to provide information useful in determining whether he did his job properly in the simplest optimal contract scenario there is a single principal and a single agent whose decision concerns the level of effort he expends the level of effort affects the level of output of the firm but not unambiguously because the output is also governed by other stochastic elements as a result some information about the agent s level of effort can be inferred

market roll out and retailer adoption for new brands this paper proposes a descriptive model of the spatial and temporal evolution of retail distribution for new packaged goods the distribution model postulates separate processes for local market entry by manufacturers and adoption by retailers given entry of special interest is whether retail adoption occurs along a competitive network with retailers as nodes and overlapping trade areas of these retailers as links the model is calibrated on data covering the introduction of two very successful new brands in the frozen pizza category for these brands manufacturers sequentially enter markets based on spatial proximity to markets already entered spatial evolution and on whether chains in these markets adopted previously elsewhere market selection a retail chain adopts new brands based on the adoption timing of competing chains within its trade territory competitive contagion and on the fraction of its trade area in which the new brand is available trade area coverage the effects of market selection and of trade area coverage create dependencies between market entry and retail adoption because of these dependencies the attraction of a particular market as a lead market depends on its location in the geographic structure of the u s retail trade

price induced patterns of competition this research focuses on how price changes influence the observed pattern of brand competition the paper begins with a basic utility model formulation and examines the implications of three major classes of preference distributions on the expected patterns of competition a price tier model is proposed to operationalize the theory and to allow predictive testing the price tier model is estimated on 28 brands across four product categories the results show a specific asymmetric pattern of price competition higher price higher quality brands steal share from other brands in the same price quality tier as well as from brands in the tier below however lower price lower quality brands take sales from their own tier and the tier below brands but do not steal significant share from the tiers above the results are consistent with a bimodal preference distribution with the regular price indifference point being located toward the lower quality end of the preference distribution for the categories analyzed

new products the antidote to private label growth abstract as private labels pls continue to grow in power and market share product innovation has become one of the strongest weapons in the national brand nb manufacturer s arsenal in this article the author assesses when and to what extent new products change nbs market position to address this question more than 300 nb and pl introductions are analyzed using a multibreak model that quantifies the impact of product introductions on own share rival nb and pl share and category sales drawing on empirical generalizations the author finds that products introduced by leading nbs standard pls and premium pls are more likely to increase category sales than products introduced by follower nbs or economy pls new products introduced by leader and follower nbs more often boost own share thus new products help prevent the decline of nb shares with respect to competitive impact new products affect rival shares with the exception of those launched by economy pls still nbs tend to hurt rival nbs

geographic income shifting by multinational corporations in response to tax rate changes we investigate geographic income shifting by 191 u s multinational corporations in response to worldwide changes in tax rates during 1984 90 between 1984 and 1986 the united kingdom reduced corporate tax rates from a maximum of 45 to 35 and in 1985 france reduced rates from 50 to 45 following these reductions in european rates the united states reduced top corporate tax rates from 46 to 34 between 1986 and 1988 canadian rates increased between 1984 and 1986 and then decreased through 1989 beginning in 1988 numerous countries enacted tax cuts apparently in response to those that occurred earlier in other countries as discussed in section 3 differential changes in tax rates provide incentives for geographic income shifting by multinational firms we identify two subperiods during 1984 90 in which relative tax rate changes

estimating demand heterogeneity using aggregated data an application to the frozen pizza category this paper combines different aggregate level data sets to identify new product demand in consumer packaged goods cpg categories our approach augments market level time series data with widely available summaries of household purchase behavior i e brand penetration and purchase set size data we show that this augmentation is helpful in the estimation of consumer heterogeneity for instance observing a brand with relatively large shares and low penetration typically indicates that preferences are dispersed with relatively few customers liking the brand a lot whereas the combination of share and penetration is informative about heterogeneity with realistic sample sizes in isolation neither variable may lead to precise estimates of heterogeneity in addition other widely available data e g category penetration is helpful in estimating the size of the total market using a large monte carlo study the paper demonstrates the benefits of the proposed approach in estimating model parameters price elasticities and brand switching empirically the approach is used to evaluate the launch of a new national brand digiorno in the frozen pizza category the new brand is inferred to be very successful at expanding the category while avoiding cannibalization of existing company share using only standard information i e market shares to estimate the demand model leads in our data to poor estimates of the degree of consumer taste variation and of switching to a new brand

estimating cannibalization rates for pioneering innovations to evaluate the success of a new product managers need to determine how much of its new demand is due to cannibalizing the firm s other products rather than drawing from competition or generating primary demand we introduce a time varying vector error correction model to decompose the base sales of a new product into its constituent sources the model allows managers to estimate cannibalization effects and calculate the new product s net demand which may be considerably less than its total demand we apply our methodology to the introduction of the lexus rx300 using detailed car transaction data this case is especially interesting because the lexus rx300 was the first crossover sport utility vehicle suv implying that its demand could come from both the luxury suv and the luxury sedan categories because lexus was active in both categories there was a double cannibalization potential we show how the contribution of the different demand sources varies over time and discuss the managerial implications for both the focal brand and its competitors

earnings and price based compensation contracts in the presence of discretionary trading and incomplete contracting abstract the paper analyzes the use of reported accounting earnings and price as a basis for compensating a manager when he trades on private information and share price is set rationally based on privately held information publicly available and contractible information and publicly available but noncontractible information in addition we analyze the comparative statics of the compensation on reported earnings and price with respect to changes in the economy

strikes are more common in countries with majoritarian electoral systems strikes are more common in those oecd countries where the legislature is elected in single member districts smd than in those where it is elected by proportional representation pr furthermore more working days are lost due to industrial conflict in countries with smd i suggest a politico economic explanation for these rarely noticed empirical regularities further empirical testing including controls drawn from previous strike research reveals that they hold up in a variety of econometric specifications

taking stock collective bargaining at the turn of the century examining data from two national surveys of matched pairs of union and management lead negotiators the authors evaluate the current state of practice in labor relations and test several propositions related to the transformation of american industrial relations they find that 30 40 of the parties reported that they had introduced negotiated workplace level innovations or engaged in strategic level interactions both important aspects of transformation also nearly half of the parties reported experience with use of interest based bargaining practices at the same time relatively few parties reported relationships that were improving and views on the extent of change differed between labor and management thus there is an identifiable path supporting the transformation process but only a minority of bargaining relationships are moving down that path

the determinants of strikes in the united states 1900 1977 this study aims to assess the recent debate that has emerged in the literature over the economic and organizational political models of strikes and to propose and test a synthesis of those models as an explanation for the pattern of strike activity in the united states since 1900 the paper begins with a review of strike activity in the post 1900 period and then develops a conceptual framework incorporating six factors the size of union membership economic conditions political events institutional arrangements psychological variables and the extent of rival unionism to explain this historical pattern the second part of the paper contains a regression analysis of strike activity over the 1900 1977 period the regression results show that both the economic factors of unemployment and inflation and various noneconomic factors such as changes in union membership the outbreak of world war ii and enactment of new deal legislation are significant in explaining variations in strike activity during t

is pattern bargaining dead this paper challenges the common belief that pattern bargaining largely ended in the 1980s applying a measure of pattern bargaining the dispersion of log wages to wage data drawn from the same data set that audrey freedman used in her widely quoted studies of this subject the author shows that the extent of pattern bargaining was actually greater in 1983 than in 1977 the evidence suggests that managers perceptions of changes in the bargaining process which are the basis for freedman s claim that pattern bargaining has eroded are inconsistent with actual changes in wage patterns

optimal ceo compensation some equivalence results i study optimal managerial contracts in two contracting environments when the investment return is contractible an optimal contract combines a base salary golden parachute and bonus when the return is not contractible two types of optimal contracts are studied a contract with restricted stock and a contract with stock options these three types of contracts are equivalent they implement the same outcome and lead to the same expected payoff for the manager implying that the choice of contractual form is irrelevant in the environment i study i suggest directions of research for the relevance of different contractual forms

a dynamic analysis of market structure based on panel data internal market structure analysis infers brand positions in an attribute space from preference and choice data given a market in which consumers have heterogeneous tastes for attributes previous market structure models have adopted a static framework e g elrod 1988 chintagunta 1994 elrod and keane 1995 furthermore they assumed that consumer perceptions of brand attributes do not vary across consumers yet these approaches may render inaccurate representations of market structure if there is state dependence in consumer choice behavior this paper attempts to incorporate consumer choice dynamics into market structure models by specifying the source of choice dynamics explicitly in particular the process by which past purchases affect current choices is modeled in a framework which captures both consumer habit persistence and variety seeking behavior more specifically consumer preferences for brand attributes are modeled to depend on the attributes of brands bought on the previous purchase occasion furthermore the modeling approach adopted incorporates heterogeneity in both consumer preferences and perceptions of brand attributes the audience of this paper includes practitioners and academics interested in understanding consumer choice processes and inferring market structure from consumer choice data the proposed models are estimated on nielsen scanner panel data for margarine peanut butter yogurt and liquid detergent using simulated maximum likelihood techniques the empirical results suggest that accounting for choice dynamics improves both in sample and out of sample fit the results indicate that the average consumer is habit persistent in all the product categories studied this result is consistent with the findings of kannan and sanchez 1994 who conducted an aggregate analysis of consumer variety seeking behavior across product categories however the results obtained in this paper suggest that consumers are heterogeneous with respect to the processes by which past purchases affect current purchases these results provide strong evidence for habit persistence and variety seeking in brand attributes to be the behavioral source of consumer choice dynamics in food categories thus consumer tastes utility weights seem to be affected by the attributes of the brands consumed in the past given the empirical result that a large proportion of consumers are habit persistent this suggests that tastes are reinforced by the brand attributes consumed in the past the empirical results also show that not accounting for state dependence in market structure models for panel data may produce misleading results that is depending on consumer behavior patterns models that do not account for state dependence may distort the true nature of competition among brands more specifically the results confirm the expectation that if there is habit persistence that is if consumer tastes are reinforced by attributes of brands consumed in the past models that do not capture this choice dynamics will overestimate the distance between similar brands furthermore the policy experiments conducted suggest that 1 static models overestimate the short run impact of a price cut on the sales of the brand on promotion 2 price cuts hurt the sales of the more similar brands more and 3 free samples affect relatively less similar brands the most finally this paper studies variety seeking and habit persistence across brands over purchase occasions however variety seeking behavior may also involve the purchase of a portfolio of brands or items at a purchase occasion consumers may buy multiple items knowing that prior to the next trip they may want to consume different items simanson 1990 walsh 1995 this type of behavior can be modeled within the context of dynamic expected utility maximization with forward looking consumers the development and estimation of market structure models that include forward looking consumers who maximize expected utility over a planning horizon incorporating their future tastes and needs and shopping for an inventory of brands remain an important future research issue

choice set heterogeneity and the role of advertising an analysis with micro and macro data abstract the authors show how to use microlevel survey data from a tracking study on brand awareness in conjunction with data on sales and advertising expenditures to improve the specification estimation and interpretation of aggregate discrete choice models of demand in a departure from the commonly made full information assumption they incorporate limited information in the form of choice sets to reflect that consumers may not be aware of all available brands at purchase time they find that both the estimated brand constants and the price coefficient are biased downward when consumer heterogeneity in choice sets is ignored these biased estimates can lead firms to make costly price setting mistakes in addition the tracking data enable the authors to identify separately two processes by which advertising influences market shares they find that advertising has a direct effect on brand awareness inclusion in choice set in addition to its effect on consumer preferences increase in utility this

bargaining theory inflation and cyclical strike activity in manufacturing this paper presents a theoretical and empirical analysis of cyclical movements in strike activity the first part of the paper develops a bargaining model that demonstrates the crucial role of limi

do welfare benefits cause the welfare caseload analyses of the welfare system generally examine one of five competing models 1 the work disincentive model 2 the human capital model 3 the macroeconomic model 4 the public choice model or 5 the cost of job loss model this paper employs the granger causality concept and the multiple rank f statistic to test the implications of all five of these models simultaneously the results offer modest support to all but the macroeconomic model the relationships among welfare benefits caseloads and labor market conditions appear to be too complex to be fully captured by a single model

a simultaneous equations model of coffee brand pricing and advertising this paper explores the relationship between a differentiated brand s market share and its price in the con text of a model that recognizes the endogeneity of the brand s advertising behavior and pricing decisions the empirical analysis suggests that general foods charged higher prices for its regular grind maxwell house coffee in geographic areas where the brand s market share was relatively large available cross sectional time series data and company documents sug gest that this empirical relationship is attributable to the preference grocery retailers have for putting dominant coffee brands on special rather than cross sectional variations in costs market concentration or consumer tastes i introduction r his paper explores the relationship between a differentiated brand s market share and its price in the context of a model that recognizes the endogeneity of the brand s advertising behav ior and pricing decisions by using price as the measure of economic performance rather than accounting profits and by recognizing that adver tising is determined simultaneously with price the empirical tests reported here avoid some of the more serious problems of structure perfor mance studies moreover by focusing on the rela tionship between a single brand s market share and price this study analyzes the unilateral mar ket power of a differentiated brand as well as the effect of market wide concentration on a brand s prices the empirical analysis focuses on the hypothe sis that the general foods corporation charged higher prices for its regular grind maxwell house coffee in geographic areas where the brand s market share was large during the 1970s we identify a statistically significant positive relation ship between maxwell house s wholesale price

a contracting perspective on earnings quality abstract this paper analyzes the impact of signal to noise ratios and the autocorrelation of a performance measure on the principal s welfare in dynamic agencies with renegotiation we consider the impact of changes in the persistent transitory and reversible components of accounting earnings on its usefulness in valuation versus contracting increasing the persistent components and reducing the reversible components are generally desirable for valuation but not for contracting eliminating transitory components of earnings is generally desirable for valuation but not necessarily for contracting we discuss the contracting implications of differences in the autocorrelations of accounting earnings versus stock returns

the specification of econometric strike models a varma approach in the case of macro econometric strike models classical regression techniques do not deal with important specification issues 1 the question of causality between strikes and other variables 2 the choice of appropriate lag structures and 3 omitted variable bias moreover since rational bargainers would tend to avoid previous bargaining mistakes the determinants of strike activity in a given period may not apply in subsequent periods this study attempts to model post war us strike behaviour beacuse of the spurious regression problems vector autoregressive moving average varma techniques are preferred to standard regression methods for the early post war period strikes are successfully modelled in terms of unemployment and wage and price inflation there is no feedback from strikes to the other variables contrary to the predominant view that us strikes are more frequent when real wage increases are small increasing rates of wage change both real and nominal lead to more strikes for t

accounting earnings and top executive compensation abstract this paper investigates the role of accounting earnings in top executive compensation contracts it provides evidence in support of the hypothesis that earnings based incentives help shield executives from market wide factors in stock prices the paper demonstrates that earnings reflect firm specific changes in value but are less sensitive to market wide movements in equity values as a result the inclusion of earnings based performance measures in executive compensation contracts helps shield executives from fluctuations in firm value that are beyond their control the hypothesis is shown to explain cross sectional variation in the use of earnings based incentives

effects of union organization on strike incidence in eu companies the author reinvestigates the relationship between the organizational power of trade unions and strikes based on data from the european company survey 2009 ecs 2009 and the institutional characteristics of trade unions wage setting state intervention and social pacts ictwss database which include more than 5 000 firms across all 27 european union eu member states he shows that the incidence of strikes is higher in companies for which workplace union membership is high the number of workplace unions is high and unions dominate establishment level works councils these factors interact to affect strike incidence in addition the company level effects of union organization on strike incidence vary across countries these country differences can partially be explained by differences in national trade union systems such as decentralization and membership density

incentive efficiency of compensation based on accounting and market performance abstract this paper analyzes how earnings and price are used in executive compensation contracts risk averse shareholders collectively design a contract and individually trade in the stock market in the optimal linear contract the use of earnings and price depends critically on incentive efficiency i e how precisely the measures convey the true outcome the relative weight of price to earnings exaggerates the true relative importance of price because price impounds traders overall information while its informational value lies in the incremental information it provides the use of price allows shareholders to share trading risks with managers

incomes policies inflation and strikes in nigeria 1950 1985 an empirical investigation the effects of incomes policies and inflation on the incidence of strikes in nigeria for the 1950 1985 period are examined studies have analysed extensively the determinants of strike activity in developed countries however relatively little empirical analysis of strike determinants in less developed countries exists an attempt is made to fill this gap by including key economic organizational and institutional variables into a model that is capable of predicting the variations in strikes in nigeria a developing country with a growing unionized sector the estimated results of the model show that strikes in nigeria are positively influenced by the level of inflation the level of union membership incomes policies and time trend

aggregation and linearity in the provision of intertemporal incentives we consider the problem of providing incentives over time for an agent with constant absolute risk aversion the optimal compensation scheme is found to be a linear function of a vector of n accounts which count the number of times that each of the n kinds of observable events occurs the number n is independent of the number of time periods so the accounts may entail substantial aggregation in a continuous time version of the problem the agent controls the drift rate of a vector of accounts that is subject to frequent small random fluctuations the solution is as if the problem were the static one in which the agent controls only the mean of a multivariate normal distribution and the principal is constrained to use a linear compensation rule if the principal can observe only coarser linear aggregates such as revenues costs or profits the optimal compensation scheme is then a linear function of those aggregates the combination of exponential utility normal distributions and linear compensation schemes makes computations and comparative statics easy to do as we illustrate we interpret our linearity results as deriving in part from the richness of the agent s strategy space which makes it possible for the agent to undermine and exploit complicated nonlinear functions of the accounting aggregates

managerial expertise private information and pay performance sensitivity this paper characterizes optimal pay performance sensitivities of compensation contracts for managers who have private information about their skills and those skills affect their outside employment opportunities the model presumes that the rate at which a manager s opportunity wage increases in his expertise depends on the nature of that expertise i e whether it is general or firm specific the analysis demonstrates that when managerial expertise is largely firm specific general the optimal pay performance sensitivity is lower higher than its optimal value in a benchmark setting of symmetric information furthermore when managerial skills are largely firm specific general the optimal pay performance sensitivity decreases increases as managerial skills become a more important determinant of firm performance unlike the standard agency theoretic prediction of a negative trade off between risk and pay performance sensitivity this paper identifies plausible circumstances under which risk and incentives are positively associated in addition to providing an explanation for why empirical tests of risk incentive relationships have produced mixed results the analysis generates insights that can be useful in guiding future empirical research

longitudinal analysis of strike activity this article presents an empirical study of strike activity in a panel of contract negotiations for some 250 firm and union pairs evidence is presented on two sources of variation in dispute rates changes in the characteristics of the collective bargaining agreement that affect subsequent strike outcomes and the effects of lagged strikes on the incidence and duration of subsequent disputes strike probabilities are significantly affected by the duration and expiration month of the previous agreement dispute rates are also increased by the occurrence of a short strike during the previous negotiations and reduced by the occurrence of a long strike

is pattern bargaining dead a discussion in her article is pattern bargaining dead kathryn j ready suggests that pattern bargaining actually strengthened during the period 1977 83 a period commonly thought to mark a sharp decline in union bargaining power and settlements ready s conclusion that hourly wages were more similar across a sample of union firms in 1983 than in 1977 is used to suggest that perhaps unions are still able to enforce pattern bargaining and therefore that their bargaining power did not in fact collapse as is commonly assumed indeed if they are more able to enforce patterns perhaps their power has actually increased this conclusion bears closer scrutiny because it runs counter to a considerable body of evidence on contemporary collective bargaining pattern bargaining refers to relationships between sets of negotiations for example an agreement with one employer may form the basis for bargaining with other firms in the same industry or in some cases across industries unions and their bargaining power have generally

the effect of labour relations legislation on strike incidence the impact on strike incidence of nine labour relations policy variables representing legislation in eleven canadian jurisdictions is estimated using logit analysis of 3 347 individual collective agreements mandatory strike votes compulsory dues check off and compulsory conciliation boards are associated with significantly lower strike probabilities prohibition of replacement workers and employer initiated strike votes are associated with significantly higher strike probabilities no significant association was found between strike incidence and the length of cooling off period following conciliation and negotiated or automatic reopeners policy impacts are interpreted in a framework emphasizing the influence of asymmetric inforrnation and joint costs on strikes

collective bargaining in small firms preliminary evidence of fundamental change this analysis of 481 negotiations in michigan over the period 1987 91 suggests that fundamental changes may have occurred recently in collective bargaining in small firms only 33 of the negotiations conformed to the traditional model of arm s length collective bargaining the balance involved either highly contentious or highly cooperative relations further in only one sixth 17 of the cases was the contract settled within one week before or after the contract expiration delays were more common and longer in negotiations in which settlements were implemented unilaterally by management over labor s objections than in cases involving strikes concessions figured prominently in the majority of the negotiations in the sample with a shift from wage to benefit concessions occurring during the period examined

the worker discipline effect a disaggregative analysis the authors test for the presence of a worker discipline effect wherein macroeconomic conditions influence worker effort and examine interindustry variation in its strength an employment function analysis is first used to find evidence of a worker discipline effect in the majority of u s three digit manufacturing industries a factor analysis of industry firm and labor market characteristics is then used to identify several underlying factors by which industries can be distinguished the authors find that the strength of the worker discipline effect is positively and significantly correlated with the degree to which industries have secondary characteristics copyright 1990 by mit press

endogeneity and heterogeneity in a probit demand model estimation using aggregate data two issues that have become increasingly important while estimating the parameters of aggregate demand functions to study firm behavior are theendogeneity of marketing activities typically price andheterogeneity across consumers in the market under consideration ignoring these issues in the estimation of the demand function parameters can lead to biased and inconsistent estimates for the effects of marketing activities endogeneity and heterogeneity have achieved prominence in large measure because of the increasing popularity of logit models to characterize demand functions usingaggregate data the logit model accounts for purchase incidence and brand choice by including a no purchase alternative in the consumer s choice set this allows for category sales to change as a function of the marketing activities of brands in the category there are three issues with using the logit model with the no purchase option to characterize demand when studying competitive interactions among firms 1 the marketing literature dealing with brand choice behavior at the consumer level has found that the iia restriction is not appropriate as each brand in the choice set is more similar to some brands than it is to others 2 studies have found that the purchase incidence decision is distinct from the brand choice decision hence it may not be appropriate to model the no purchase decision as just another alternative in the choice set with the iia restriction holding across all brands and the no purchase option 3 even if the distinction between the purchase incidence and brand choice decisions is accounted for via for example a nested logit specification accounting for the purchase incidence decision with aggregate data requires assumptions for computing the share of the no purchase alternative which is otherwise unobserved in this paper we propose a probit model as an alternative to the logit model to specify the aggregate demand functions of firms competing in oligopoly markets the probit model avoids the iia property that affects the logit model at the individual consumer level furthermore the probit model can naturally account for the distinction between the purchase incidence and brand choice decisions due to the general covariance structure assumed for the utilities of the alternatives we demonstrate how the parameters of the proposed model can be estimated using aggregate time series data from a product market in the estimation we account for the endogeneity of marketing variables as well as for heterogeneity across consumers our results indicate that both endogeneity as well as heterogeneity need to be accounted for even after allowing for a non iia specification at the individual consumer level specific to our data we also find that ignoring endogeneity has a bigger impact on the estimated price elasticities than ignoring the effects of heterogeneity a comparison of the elasticities obtained from the probit model with those from the corresponding logit specification indicates that therange of elasticities obtained from the probit model across brands is larger than that obtained from the logit the results have implications for issues such as firm level pricing in addition to specifying a probit model and providing comparisons with the logit model the paper also addresses the third issue raised above we propose a simple alternative to the purchase incidence brand choice specification by decomposing the demand for a brand into a category demand equation and a conditional brand choice share equation we provide a comparison of results from this specification to those from the specification that includes the no purchase alternative and find that estimated elasticities are sensitive to the specification used we also estimate the demand function parameters using a traditional specification such as the double logarithmic model here we find that the estimated elasticities could be signed in such a manner as to be not useful for firm level pricing decisions one of the key limitations of the proposed model is that while it accounts for the purchase incidence and brand choice decisions of households it does not account for differences across consumers in their purchase quantities the model and analysis are best suited for product categories in which consumers typically make single unit purchases another limitation is more practical in nature while recent advances have been made in computing probit probabilities it could nevertheless be a challenge to do so when the number of alternatives is large

the determinants of strike incidence and severity a micro level study this paper investigates the determinants of strike incidence and severity during labor contract negotiations the author develops a model that considers the forces influencing both unions willingness to strike and employers willingness to take a strike and estimates it using data describing 1 050 negotiations in u s manufacturing during the 1971 80 period the results indicate that strike incidence is influenced by the gender composition of the labor force demand fluctuations in the product market location in a right to work state the number of workers in the bargaining unit union density in the industry and the extent to which wages kept pace with inflation over the prior contract period on the other hand neither the local unemployment rate when negotiations began nor the inflation rate over the term of the expiring contract influenced strike incidence or severity in this sample