some aspects of the taxation of capital gains abstract the analysis of the effects of capital gains taxation requires a careful modelling both of the details of the tax code and the imperfections in the capital market under the standard assumptions concerning perfect capital markets and under the standard idealizations of the tax code there are several strategies by which rational investors can avoid note only all taxes on their capital income but also all taxes on their wage income these strategies leave individuals consumption and bequests in each state of nature and at each date unchanged from what they would have been in the absence of taxes although certain detailed provisions of the tax code may limit the extent to which rational investors can avail themselves of these tax avoidance activities there are ways in a perfect capital market by which the effects of these restrictions can be ameliorated accordingly any analysis of the effects of capital taxation must focus on imperfect capital markets if individuals face limitations on the amounts which they can borrow and or if there are limitations on short sales then under some circumstances there is a locked in effect individuals do not sell securities which they would have sold in the absence of taxation but under other circumstances individuals are induced to sell securities that they otherwise would have held in order to take advantage of the asymmetric treatment of short term losses and long term gains a policy of realizing gains as soon as they become eligible for long term treatment dominates the policy of postponing the realization of capital gains provided the gains are not too large a simple general equilibrium model is constructed within which it is shown that the taxation of capital gains may increase the volatility of asset prices and lead individuals not to trade when they otherwise would while the analysis casts doubt on the significance of the welfare losses resulting from these exchange inefficiencies there are circumstances in which the tax leads to production inefficiencies e g terminating projects at other than the socially optimal date finally we argue that the focus of some recent policy debates on the short run revenue impact of a decrease in the tax rate on capital gains is misplaced even when the short run revenue impact is positive consumption may increase thus exacerbating inflationary pressures and private savings may decrease thus leading to a lower level of investment in the private sector moreover there is some presumption that the long run revenue impact is negative our analysis has some important implications for empirical research in particular it suggests that the impact of the tax is not adequately summarized by a single number such as the effective tax rate representing the average ratio of tax payments to capital gains moreover the impact of the tax cannot be assessed by looking only at reported capital gains and losses

marriage market divorce legislation and household labor supply this paper provides a theoretical framework for analyzing the impact of the marriage market and divorce legislation on household labor supply in our approach the sex ratio in the marriage market and the rules governing divorce are examples of distribution factors these factors are defined as variables that affect the household members bargaining position but not preferences or the joint budget set we extend the collective labor supply model developed by chiappori to allow for distribution factors we show that our model imposes new restrictions on the labor supply functions and eases the identification of individual preferences and the intrahousehold decision process the model is estimated using psid data for the year 1988 our results do not reject the restrictions imposed by the model also the sex ratio and divorce laws deemed favorable to women are found to affect labor supply behavior and the decision process in the directions predicted by the theory and to have sizable effects

underemployment irreversibilities and growth under trade unionism the effects of irreversibility and uncertainty are analyzed in a unionized economy with overlapping generations irreversible decisions about technology and physical and human capital are made under uncertainty and generate underutilization of labor and equipment not only over the convergence path but also at steady state the related inefficiency negatively affects the accumulation process by reducing the per capita capital stock at teady state the effect of union power on capital is ambiguous and depends crucially on the presence of irreversible decisions

capital taxation and accumulation in a life cycle growth model almost all of the serious economic work on savings decisions within the past decade has relied on some variant of the life cycle hypothesis in which savings arise out of individual choices of an optimum lifetime consumption path this paper reexamines the incidence and welfare consequences of capital income taxes within a realistic life cycle model the results suggest that the elimination of capital income taxation would have very substantial economic effects for example a complete shift to consumption taxation might raise steady state output by as much as 18 percent and consumption by 16 percent the long run welfare gain from such a shift would for plausible parameter values exceed 150 billion annually stated somewhat differently shifting to consumption taxation would raise the lifetime utility of the representative consumer by the equivalent of about six years income in the new steady state these estimates dwarf estimates of the static welfare cost of taxation and significantly exceed even extreme previous estimates of the dynamic loss this study departs from earlier analyses of the effects of taxes on capital income in several respects probably the most important difference between this treatment and most preceding ones lies in the assumptions about the interest elasticity of saving it is shown below that the common two period formulation of saving decisions yields quite misleading results a more realistic model of life cycle savings demonstrates that for a wide variety of plausible parameter values savings are very interest elastic this implies that shifting away from capital income taxation would significantly increase capital formation making possible long run increases in consumption many studies of the welfare effects of capital income taxation have ignored the general equilibrium effects of increased capital formation in an economy with life cycle savings there is no presumption that the undistorted growth path corresponds to any sort of social optimum as peter diamond has shown life cycle savings can lead to a steady state capital intensity either greater or less than the golden rule level more generally it is clear that there is no reason to believe that a life cycle economy will maximize any particular intertemporal social welfare function a fundamental tenet of welfare evaluation is that preexisting distortions must be considered in evaluating the consequences of tax changes the results presented in this paper take explicit account of the nonoptimal character of the no tax steady state this explains in large part why such a sizeable welfare effect of capital taxes is found in an economy far from the golden rule level of capital intensity there are substantial gains in steady state consumption achievable through increased capital formation section i of the paper examines the aggregate savings function in a continuous time life cycle framework the second section clarifies the differences between wage and consumption taxes an aggregate production function is added to complete the model in the third section the effects of changes in capital taxes on both steady state incidence and welfare are considered within a general equilibrium framework the final section of the paper discusses some implications of the results and suggests areas which appear to warrant further study assistant professor of economics massachusetts institute of technology and research analyst national bureau of economic research i am grateful to alan auerbach martin feldstein laurence kotlikoff to the participants in the nber workshop on business taxation and to the harvard public finance seminar for useful discussions james poterba and james buchal performed the numerical calculations

dynamic perspectives on agricultural policy issues among the innovators fred waugh was one of the most prolific he made pioneering contributions in linear programming statistics and econometrics demand analysis the welfare effects of price risk and the analysis and explanation of commodity cycles as a research leader mentor and teacher at the usda he left his mark on the work of later generations of researchers i find myself no exception as will become clear from what i have to say in this paper even though i never met him in person my work has been influenced by what he wrote and by what his students wrote and taught among the many topics that interested waugh were the dynamics of free market behavior and the implications for policy formation in this paper i consider models of markets in which the dynamics run in two directions forward from current conditions to expectations of future prices and back from price expectations to current decisions both types of linkages can be crucial in competitive models of agricultural production in which land has a prominent role as the quintessential fixed asset a central challenge of market analysis from waugh s time till now has been to infer from market observations whether markets are behav

a microsimulation model of swedish housing demand abstract this paper presents a microsimulation model of housing demand aimed at analyzing effects of changes in tax schedules like many other countries sweden s income tax laws treat homeowners and renters asymmetrically therefore most changes in tax laws will affect housing demand and tenure choice we develop a microsimulation model which generates consistent estimates of the mean and variance of total housing demand and show that commonly used measures like analytic elasticities evaluated at mean values of the exogenous variables can yield very misleading predictions our model can be used to simulate almost any change in the tax system here we report results of three simple experiments one of which is a change in the rate at which imputed income from owner occupied housing is taxed

transaction taxes in a search model of the housing market abstract we incorporate transaction taxes in a housing market search model with endogeneous house prices and show that these taxes unambiguously create lock in effects that reduce welfare the lock in effects are larger at low vacancy rates seller taxes raise prices and buyer taxes lower them and this asymmetry helps to explain the differences in the welfare effects of the two taxes lock in effects are smaller with a buyer tax since the price reduction dampens the negative effect on search effort caused by the tax

terror as a bargaining instrument a case study of dowry violence in rural india this ethnographic study examined the sociocultural context of domestic violence and dowry in india and describes a theoretical model and econometric methodology the model was tested with survey data collected from a sub caste of 149 potter families from 3 villages in karnataka state in south india interviews were conducted among 139 adult married women and 130 married men the case studies demonstrate that violence can be used as a way to redistribute resources bargaining over dowry amounts occurs twice once before the marriage and renegotiations after the wife had moved to the husbands family domestic violence may be a weapon in order to obtain higher transfers at the renegotiation stage the model assumes that the level of dowry and the occurrence of violence are determined simultaneously hypotheses tested whether increases in husbands family wealth in the dowry paid and husbands cost of violent behavior reduces the incidence of violence tests determined whether increases in wifes familys wealth and increases in wifes human capital husbands human capital or wifes cost of violence increase violence 23 reported wife beating at some time a 10000 rupee increase in the wifes parents income increased the risk of violence by 4 a 10000 rupee increase in the husbands parents income reduced the risk of violence by 10 a 10000 rupee increase in dowry reduced the risk by 5 an additional male child reduced the risk by 11 female sterilization increased the risk by 16 findings suggest that husbands beat wives when the wifes family is rich and when dowries are small

exploring income inequality in rural coastal viet nam income inequality has been rising in parallel with the economic liberalisation process in the former centrally planned economies the opportunities for non agricultural income associated with the market liberalisation process in former centrally planned economies would seem to be important in determining inequality within the rural sector this article reviews the trends in inequality in viet nam examining differential trends and hypothesised causes inequality is important because of its relationship to other factors in the evolution of the agricultural economy such as the incidence of poverty and the sustainability of emerging income sources this article analyses income inequality based on data collected by the author in two districts in coastal northern viet nam the results demonstrate that non agricultural income sources specifically aquaculture and wage and remittance contribute more to present inequality than any other income source simulation shows that the emergence of aquaculture since the l

taxation of capital gains on owner occupied homes the paper compares taxation on realization with taxation on accrual in the context of owner occupied housing it considers a model where the utility a household derives from housing relative to other consumption varies over the life cycle as there are sizeable transaction costs housing consumption will not even in the absence of taxes be adjusted continuously but at discrete intervals the focus of the paper is on tax effects on the length of these intervals the following results are shown u taxing true economic appreciation at the same rate as imputed rental income and other capital income will lead to a shortening of the intervals if the capital gains are taxed on accrual an increase in this tax rate holding other rates constant will lead to a shortening of the intervals if the capital gains are taxed only as they are realized an increase in this tax rate holding other rates constant may either lead to a lengthening or a shortening of the holding period shortening is more likely if transaction costs are large whereas lengthening will occur if the rate of price increase is high

labor market opportunities and women s decision making power within households abstract despite the perceived importance of labor market opportunities in shaping married women s outside option and their bargaining power within households as a result this link has received very little empirical attention using longitudinal data on who makes the decision on a wide range of issues within mexican households and data from the administrative records of the mexican social security institute this paper identifies the effects of relative changes in labor market opportunities for men and women on both working and non working women s decision making power i find that increases in labor market opportunities improve women s decision making power as well as children s health using differential labor demand shocks across mexican industries caused by china s admission to the wto gives similar results

dynamic tax incidence and intergenerationally neutral reform the paper proposes a basic definition of intergenerational neutrality in the overlapping generations model when agents have a pure life cycle motive of savings the derivation of intergenerationally neutral tax effects provides a redistribution free benchmark case that isolates the relative price effects of taxes and the deadweight losses associated with them the paper clarifies the intergenerational incidence which has to be determined simultaneously with the substitution effects of taxes on savings a tax reform example demonstrates how taxes with diverging intergenerational incidence may be combined to achieve intergenerational neutrality finally the paper extends the analysis of generational tax incidence to the case of a small open economy

contraceptive supply and fertility outcomes evidence from ghana abstracttotal fertility rates in sub saharan africa are nearly double that of any other region in the world some argue that providing contraceptives has only a negligibly small impact on fertility i exploit exogenous temporary reductions in contraceptive supply in ghana resulting from cuts in us funding to examine impacts on pregnancy abortion and births women are unable to fully compensate for the 10 16 supply reduction using traditional methods for preventing pregnancy which increases by 10 only nonpoor women offset these unwanted pregnancies with induced abortion using separate data i find that poor women experience increases in realized fertility of 7 10

the effects of taxation on the selling of corporate stock and the realization of capital gains this study provides the first econometric analysis of the effect of taxation on the realization of capital gains the analysis thus extends and complements the earlier study by feldstein and yitzhaki 1978 of the effect of taxation on the selling of corporate stock the present analysis using a large new body of data obtained from individual tax returns supports the earlier finding that corporate stock sales are quite sensitive to tax rates and then shows that the effect on the realization of capital gains is even stronger

fiscal incidence in an overlapping generations model with a fixed asset abstract we analyze a model of overlapping generations with a fixed factor land malleable capital and labor we consider the dynamic effects of various fiscal policies including taxes on rent wages and creation of public debt on capital accumulation land prices and intergenerational welfare minimal assumptions uniqueness and stability imply that a land tax may initially raise land values but the upper bound is less than one half of the tax revenues assuming homothetic utility the ratio between the long run capital responses to a land tax and to a lump sum transfer of equivalent revenue from the young to the old depends solely on the share of labor

tax policy the interest elasticity of saving and capital accumulation numerical analysis of theoretical models increasing disillusionment with traditional empirical methods is having a major impact on research methodology which is increasingly turning to simulation analysis based on theoretical models and assumed parameter values in research on saving and wealth accumulation there have been several recent studies consisting of simulation of theoretical models based on the life cycle model a particular focus has been tax policy and capital formation which is the area of concentration of this paper the aim is to analyze in a theoretical simulation context the impact on saving and wealth of an increase in the after tax rate of return to saving generated by a cut in the tax rate on income from capital this paper suggests that such simulation analysis while instructive as to the behavior of the class of models examined and as to the critical channels of influence does not yield a theoretical presumption in favor of cutting taxes on income from capital as a means of stimulating capital formation the development of this literature derives in part from disillusionment with traditional empirical methods many such papers begin by listing a litany of the problems involved in the usual type of empirical analysis before proceeding to simulation of theoretical structures the implicit conclusion at times appears to be that because of the daunting problems of standard empirical methodology the results derived from it can be ignored and that empirical magnitudes can perhaps be discovered by deductive means the temptation to think of the precise numerical results derived from theoretical simulation as empirical can be rather strong it needs to be reemphasized that empirical magnitudes can only be determined by empirical studies in section i the theoretical structure of a zero bequest life cycle model2 is outlined and several numerical simulations of this model are presented these simulations highlight interesting and nontrivial interactions of theoretical parameters and also demonstrate the difficulty involved in attempts to develop robust aggregate implications from such a framework for instance it is argued that summers claim to have developed a prima facie theoretical case for a high interest elasticity of savings 1981a p 537 does not stand up to sensitivity analysis a small change in the assumed rate of pure time preference or in other parametric assumptions generate otherwise plausible cases in which the interest elasticity of aggregate saving is low the experiments conducted in section i are partial equilibrium in the sense that the interest rate is changed exogenously which changes savings and hence the capital stock but the feedback effect of the capital international monetary fund this paper derives from chs 2 and 3 of my doctoral dissertation completed during a research fellowship at the brookings institution financial support was received from brookings and the social science research council i am grateful to henry aaron barry bosworth maxim engers irwin friend laurence kotlikoff franco modigliani joseph pechman duncan ripley robert shiller patricia stack and my supervisor albert ando for comments and guidance on earlier drafts none of the above institutions or individuals is responsible for the views expressed or any remaining errors for example see james tobin and walter dolde betsy white lawrence summers 1978 1981a b g moore alan auerbach and laurence kotlikoff and auerbach kotlikoff and j skinner 2it is popular to establish a sharp dichotomy between life cycle models and bequest models this taxonomy ignores the frequent references to the potential significance of bequests in the writings of the originators of the life cycle hypothesis a distinction between zero bequest life cycle models and life cycle models incorporating bequests is more accurate in terms of doctrinal history see for example albert ando and franco modigliani and modigliani and richard brumberg

social security reform and national wealth recent trends in common stock prices suggest a distinction between increases in national net worth and flows of physical investment in this paper we present a simple overlapping generations model in which such differences can arise technological progress occurs exogenously yet firms own new technologies for a time we examine possible consequences for social security reform reform which increases private saving depletes part of its force raising the capitalized price of proprietary technologies a calibrated example suggests an increase in physical capital one third smaller than without inelastic factors both steady states and transition paths are considered

bargaining over babies theory evidence and policy implications it takes a woman and a man to make a baby this fact suggests that for a birth to take place the parents should first agree on wanting a child using newly available data on fertility preferences and outcomes we show that indeed babies are likely to arrive only if both parents desire one and there are many couples who disagree on having babies we then build a bargaining model of fertility choice and match the model to data from a set of european countries with very low fertility rates the distribution of the burden of child care between mothers and fathers turns out to be a key determinant of fertility a policy that lowers the child care burden specifically on mothers can be more than twice as effective at increasing the fertility rate compared to a general child subsidy

how important is parental education for child nutrition existing evidence on the impacts of parental education on child nutrition is plagued by both internal and external validity concerns in this paper we try to address these concerns through a novel econometric analysis of 376 992 preschool children from 56 developing countries we compare a naive least square model to specifications that include cluster fixed effects and cohort based educational rankings to reduce biases from omitted variables before gauging sensitivity to sub samples and exploring potential explanations of education nutrition linkages we find that the estimated nutritional returns to parental education are a substantially reduced in models that include fixed effects and cohort rankings b larger for mothers than for fathers c generally increasing and minimal for primary education d increasing with household wealth e larger in countries regions with higher burdens of undernutrition f larger in countries regions with higher schooling quality and g highly variable across country sub samples these results imply substantial uncertainty and variability in the returns to education but results from the more stringent models imply that even the achievement of very ambitious education targets would only lead to modest reductions in stunting rates in high burden countries we speculate that education might have more impact on the nutritional status of the next generation if school curricula focused on directly improving health and nutritional knowledge of future parents

capital gains taxes and asset prices capitalization or lock in this paper demonstrates that the equilibrium impact of capital gains taxes reflects both the capitalization effect i e capital gains taxes decrease demand and the lock in effect i e capital gains taxes decrease supply depending on time periods and stock characteristics either effect may dominate using the taxpayer relief act of 1997 as our event we find evidence supporting a dominant capitalization effect in the week following news that sharply increased the probability of a reduction in the capital gains tax rate and a dominant lock in effect in the week after the rate reduction became effective this paper jointly tests two effects of capital gains taxation on equity trading a demand side capitalization effect and a supply side lock in effect while previous studies have tested these effects separately to the best of our knowledge this is the first study to evaluate them jointly and empirically document the relative dominance of each effect surrounding a change in a tax rate employing an equilibrium approach we show that these effects net tax impact on asset prices is ambiguous evaluating returns and trading volume around the 1997 reduction in the capital gains tax rate we find evidence that the capitalization and the lock in effects jointly affect trading in particular the capitalization effect dominates the lock in effect in the week following an increase in the probability of a reduction in the capital gains tax rate as buyers respond to information that future capital gains tax rates will be lower the lock in effect however dominates the capitalization effect after the rate reduction actually becomes effective taxation is one of the most prevalent market frictions in financial markets affecting investors decisions and distorting the valuation of assets capital gains taxes in particular play an important role in determining an investor s trading strategies and can ultimately affect asset prices because investors

women empowerment and economic development women empowerment and economic development are closely related in one direction development alone can play a major role in driving down inequality between men and women in the other direction empowering women may benefit development does this imply that pushing just one of these two levers would set a virtuous circle in motion this paper reviews the literature on both sides of the empowerment development nexus and argues that the interrelationships are probably too weak to be self sustaining and that continuous policy commitment to equality for its own sake may be needed to bring about equality between men and women

how burdensome are capital gains taxes abstract this paper uses capital gain realization data from individual tax returns to evaluate recent claims that sophisticated portfolio strategies permit investors to avoid capital gains taxes the results suggest important investor heterogeneity twenty percent of taxpayers with capital gains or losses face binding loss offset constraints another significant group of investors evades the capital gains tax prior to recent legislative changes forty percent of capital gains were unreported finally about forty percent of capital gains accrue to investors who report capital gains and face significant tax burdens as the traditional analysis of the capital gains tax suggests

do husbands and wives pool their resources evidence from the united kingdom child benefit common preference models of family behavior imply income pooling a restriction on family demand functions such that only the sum of husband s income and wife s income affects the allocation of goods and time testing the pooling hypothesis is difficult because most family income sources are not exogenous to the allocations being analyzed in this paper we present an alternative test based on a natural experiment a policy change in the united kingdom that transferred a substantial child allowance to wives in the late 1970s using family expenditure survey data we find strong evidence that a shift toward greater expenditures on women s clothing and children s clothing relative to men s clothing coincided with this income redistribution

monetary policy taxes and the business cycle this paper analyzes the interaction of inflation with the tax code and its contribution to aggregate fluctuations we find significant effects operating through the tax on realized nominal capital gains a tax on nominal bond income magnifies these effects our innovation is to combine monetary policy shocks with non indexed taxes in a model where the central bank implements policy using an interest rate rule monetary policy had important effects on the behavior of the business cycle before 1980 because policymakers did not exert effective control over inflation monetary policy reform around 1980 led to better control and with more stable inflation the effect of the interaction between monetary policy and the nominal capital gains tax has become negligible

peasant rationality individuals groups cultures abstract t w schultz s use of evidence in support of his thesis of peasant rationality is selective and unrepresentative even of the studies quoted peasants cannot be rational in the schultz allocational sense because they lack sufficient information and live in a world of uncertainty many studies show that personality and individual circumstances rule out uniform predictable responses to price and profit incentives the works of scott and popkin on collective peasant action and its basis in individual interest are reviewed lastly the importance of custom and culture in peasant decision processes is shown

the incidence of a tax on pure rent in a small open economy this paper analyzes the effects of a land rent tax on capital formation and foreign investment in a life cycle small open economy with endogenous labor leisure choices the consequences of land taxation critically depend on how the tax proceeds are used by the government a land tax depresses capital formation crowds out foreign investment and increases national wealth and consumption when the land tax revenues are distributed as lump sum payments if the proceeds from land taxation are used to finance unproductive government expenditure the land tax will be neutral in its effects on the capital stock nonhuman wealth and labor when the tax revenues are used to reduce labor taxes the land rent tax spurs nonhuman wealth accumulation and ambiguously affects the capital stock and labor

capital gains taxation and residential mobility in sweden abstract theoretical studies have shown that capital gains taxes in the housing market may create lock in effects but so far no empirical evidence has been presented regarding the size of these effects for a panel of swedish house owners in 1984 1990 we show that lock in effects only appear for households with income reductions the size of these lock in effects crucially depends on the magnitude of the income loss the theoretical model and features of the swedish tax system imply that lock in effects depend on the degree of mismatch in the current residence and whether the households buy up or buy down

mine yours or ours the efficiency of household investment decisions an experimental approach we conduct an experiment to measure the relative importance of key factors that influence the efficiency of household investment decisions we find that both for men and women their spouse s access to information does not affect efficiency however they are willing to sacrifice much efficiency for greater personal control over household income intriguingly even when spouses control over household income is exogenously assigned inefficiency persists as a wife s assigned share increases husbands undercut their own income to reduce hers this self destructive and spiteful behavior is best explained by non economic factors such as identity seldom emphasized in mainstream household economic models

inflation and capital accumulation under a finite horizon abstract the effect of inflation on demand for capital and the aggregate capital labor ratio is investigated in a finite horizon utility maximization model it is shown that deriving saving and asset choice decisions from utility maximization does not in itself lead to superneutrality independence of steady state capital labor ratio from the rate of monetary growth as in the work of sidrauski and that a finite horizon is crucial in explaining this difference it is further shown that it is possible under very general conditions to show that increases in the rate of inflation will increase the aggregate capital labor ratio allowing us to extend the mundell tobin effect to a wider class of models

the present state of institutional economics after articulating the institutionalist paradigm and its principal facets the article examines the present status converging interests and possible future of institutional economics emphasis is on related schools of thought and especially european and other developments along evolutionary and holistic lines of analysis and on a new generation of u s and especially european authors among more specific themes are the importance of power technology social change social control organizations and institutions in governing economic performance the work of european authors is expected to become increasingly important owing to their concern with subject matter and policy issues rather than sectarian questions c 1995 academic press ltd copyright 1995 by oxford university press

capitalization of capital gains taxes evidence from stock price reactions to the 1997 rate reduction abstract we empirically document that stock prices moved inversely with dividend yields during the may 1997 week when the white house and congress agreed on a budget accord that included a reduction in the capital gains tax rate the findings are consistent with equity prices capitalizing expected capital gains taxes two scenarios are possible first to the extent returns are expected to be taxed as capital gains a reduction in the expected capital gains tax rate enhances market value second to the extent individuals hold a stock a reduction in the expected personal capital gains tax rate increases market value

endogenous childlessness and stages of development abstract although developing countries are characterized by high average fertility rates they are as concerned by childlessness as developed countries beyond natural sterility there are two main types of childlessness one driven by poverty and another by the high opportunity cost of child rearing we measure the importance of the components of childlessness with a structural model of fertility and marriage deep parameters are identified using census data from 36 developing countries as average education increases poverty driven childlessness first decreases to a minimum and then the opportunity driven part of childlessness increases we show that neglecting the endogenous response of marriage and childlessness may lead to a poor understanding of the impact that social progress such as universal primary education may have on completed fertility the same holds for family planning closing the gender pay gap and the eradication of child mortality

strategic choices in polygamous households theory and evidence from senegal this paper proposes a strategic framework to account for fertility choices in polygamous households a theoretical model specifies the main drivers of fertility in the african context and describes how the fertility of one wife might impact the behavior of her co wives it generates predictions to test for strategic interactions exploiting original data from a household survey and the demographic and health surveys in senegal empirical tests show that children are strategic complements one wife raises her fertility in response to an increase by the other wife because children are the best claim to resources controlled by the husband this result is the first quantitative evidence of a reproductive rivalry between co wives it suggests that the sustained high level of fertility in africa does not merely reect women s lack of control over births as is often argued but also their incentives to have many children this paper also contributes to the literature on household behavior as one of the few attempts to open the black box of non nuclear families

the effect of capital gains taxes on the initial pricing and underpricing of ipos we investigate the extent to which capitalization of expected capital gains taxes and the lock in effect induced by the capital gains tax rate differential simultaneously impact the pricing and underpricing of initial public offerings ipos using a large sample of ipos from 1987 to 2010 we estimate regressions of offer prices and first day underpricing on tax rates supporting tax capitalization ipo offer prices decrease in long term capital gains taxes supporting lock in ipo underpricing increases in the long term and short term tax rate differential these effects are consistent with capital gains taxes simultaneously reducing ipo proceeds and exacerbating ipo underpricing

capital income taxation in a two commodity life cycle model the role of factor intensity and asset capitalization effects this paper discusses the impact of changes in capital income taxation in a two commodity life cycle general equilibrium growth model in contrast to the solow swan one commodity framework which has been used in previous life cycle policy simulation summers 1981 auerbach et al 1983 auerbath and kotlikoff 1983 1987 we use a two commodity uzawa 1961 1963 type model consumption and capital goods are separately identitied with an endogenously determined relative price between them as a result both asset capitalization effects changes in the relative price of capital and consumption goods and factor intensity effects across sectors are captured calculations with the model suggest that both of these effects

effects of capital gains taxation on life cycle investment and portfolio management we examine the impact of capital income taxation both accrual forms of taxation and taxation of realized capital gains on total savings and the demand for corporate financial instruments we find that investors may hold both debt and equity in the face of effective collection of capital gains taxation even in a flat tax system we also find that the two taxes will have substantially different effects on saving and consumption behavior making it unlikely that the tax structure can be summarized by any single equivalent accrual tax rate this paper examines the impact of income taxation on the demand for various corporate financial instruments focusing on unique features due to taxation of realized capital gains we take a life cycle view of investment behavior and examine how accrual and realization taxation jointly affect an individual s allocation of intertemporal resources we shall consider the impact on his demand for debt and equity showing that taxation of realized capital gains generates an intrapersonal tax clientele effect at any one point of time an individual will strictly prefer either to buy debt or equity but that choice may be different at different ages therefore many individuals will simultaneously hold both debt and equity we also find that any attempt to measure the effective capital gains tax rate will be difficult and that existing approaches appear flawed since they do not correspond to the pattern of distortions which we find in this explicit model of asset demand and saving this analysis deviates from earlier work on capital gains taxation in several substantial dimensions whereas much of the capital gains taxation literature focuses on how capital gains tax regulations generate arbitrage opportunities in perfect capital markets the analysis used below essentially assumes effective enforcement of the intent of capital gains taxation this is desirable since contrary to the perfect capital market implication capital gains tax revenues are nontrivial therefore in examining the nature of asset demand and choice it is reasonable to assume somewhat effective collection of the capital gains tax liabilities our analysis will assume completely effective enforcement to highlight the impact of capital gains taxation it will be clear that several types of leakages will not substantially alter the qualitative conclusions

contraception as development new evidence from family planning in colombia there has been considerable debate in the last decade about whether or not family planning programmes in developing countries reduce fertility or improve socio economic outcomes this article provides new evidence by studying the expansion of one of the worlds oldest and largest family planning organisations profamilia of colombia it finds that family planning explains less than 10 of colombias fertility decline during its demographic transition as in wealthy countries however lowering the costs of first birth postponement produced important socio economic gains enabling young women to obtain more education and to work more and live independently later in life

payment mechanisms and antipoverty programs evidence from a mobile money cash transfer experiment in niger abstractcash transfers have become an increasingly important component of social protection policies in both developed and developing countries while such programs are often implemented electronically in developed countries in many developing countries with weak financial infrastructure such transfers are distributed manually resulting in significant costs to program recipients and the public sector alike the introduction of mobile money systems in many developing countries offers new opportunities for distributing cash transfers using data from a randomized experiment of a mobile money cash transfer program in niger we find evidence of benefits of this new system household diet diversity was 9 16 higher among households who received mobile transfers and children ate an additional one third of a meal per day these results can be partially attributed to time savings associated with mobile transfers as program recipients spent less time traveling to and waiting for their transfer they are also

institutional ecological economics abstract new institutional economics and its forerunners have we argue made important contributions to the evolving agenda of ecological economics the conceptualisation of environmental problems as instances of interdependence and the acknowledgement of positive transaction costs are key insights into the nature of environmental problems we also discuss how plurality of behavioural motivations and limited cognitive capacity have important implications for environmental decision making and its analysis we show how evolutionary and collective action theories offer complementary takes on the choice and change of environmental governance institutions and how the concept of social capital can enrich analyses of environmental governance we conclude that an emerging institutional ecological economics has the greatest relative advantage in analysing the design implementation and effectiveness of environmental governance solutions

intra household experiments a survey experiments with family groups are rare but since many decisions are taken at the household level or occur within the household it is an important area to investigate this paper provides a survey of the recent experimental work on intra household decision making i discuss some of the challenges involved in doing experiments with couples and families and consider major areas that remain yet to be explored while general themes from the research are still emerging four results repeatedly occur 1 the absence of efficiency in intra household decisions 2 joint decisions that are not a convex combination of individual decisions 3 individual behaviour is affected by opportunities for hiding actions from spouses and 4 deviations from standard models of microeconomics in line with those seen in the anomalies literature of individual decision making

optimal stock trading with personal taxes implications for prices and the abnormal january returns abstract the tax law confers upon the investor a timing option to realize capital losses and defer capital gains with the tax rate on long term gains and losses being about half the short term rate the law provides a second timing option to realize losses short term and gains long term if at all our theory and simulation over the 1962 1977 period establish that taxable investors should realize long term gains in high variance stocks and repurchase stock in order to realize potential future losses short term tax trading does not explain the small firm anomaly but predicts a seasonal pattern in trading volume which maps into a seasonal pattern in stock prices the january anomaly only if investors are irrational or ignorant of the price seasonality

evolution of economy and environment an application to land use in lowland vietnam abstract this paper analyses the interactions between land use institutions and culture in the context of climatic extremes in vietnam although there has been a long history of examining the evolutionary nature of markets and institutions within an institutional economics framework developing the institutional economic approach to include society environment interactions allows examination of processes which facilitate and constrain economic development for example this approach is used here to explain adaptation processes whereby climatic risk affects collective responses these responses form an evolutionary link between institutions culture resources and the physical environment the paper argues that historically climatic risks have been a factor in technological and political response within the agrarian society of vietnam in the sense that climatic extremes have acted as triggers to some significant social upheavals in the past century the impacts of colonialism political change and related changes in social organisation have significantly altered the social basis of resilience to climate extremes

endogenous fertility ricardian equivalence and debt management policy abstract the paper develops a model in which dynastic families optimally determine fertility government debt represents a tax on future generations and on childbearing the ricardian equivalence hypothesis does not hold debt is welfare reducing in that it distorts the fertility decision an increase in government debt induces a decline in fertility and an increase in the steady state capital labor ratio if a government inherits an existing stock of debt the first best policy is to eliminate the debt immediately in other situations the optimal debt management policy will not in general entail a total elimination of the debt

efficient intra household allocations a general characterization and empirical tests the neoclassical theory of demand applies to individuals yet in empirical work it is usually taken as valid for households with many members this paper explores what the theory of individuals implies for households that have more than one member we make minimal assumptions about how the individual members of the household resolve conflicts all we assume is that however decisions are made outcomes are efficient we refer to this as the collective setting we show that in the collective setting household demands must satisfy a symmetry and rank condition on the slutsky matrix we also present some further results on the effects on demands of variables that do not modify preferences but that do affect how decisions are made we apply our theory to a series of surveys of household expenditures from canada the tests of the usual symmetry conditions are rejected for two person households but not for one person households we also show that income pooling is rejected for two person households we then test for our collective setting conditions on the couples data none of the collective setting restrictions are rejected we conclude that the collective setting is a plausible and tractable next step to take in the analysis of household behavior

coevolution in water resource development the vicious cycle of water supply and demand in athens greece abstract this paper adopts a coevolutionary perspective to criticize the dominant narratives of water resource development such narratives of progress portray a sequence of improving water technologies that overcame environmental constraints supplying more water to satisfy the demands of growing populations for better living water supply appears as the response to an insatiable demand exogenous to the water system instead as the history of water in athens greece illustrates water supply and demand in fact coevolve new supply generating higher demands and in turn higher demands favouring supply expansion over other alternatives this vicious cycle expands the water footprint of cities degrading environments and communities in the countryside far from being predetermined and inevitable as progressive narratives wants it water resource development has been contingent on geographical and environmental conditions institutional struggles accidents experiments and external geo political and technological forces in the last part of this paper i discuss the policy implications of this coevolutionary reframing with respect to a the transition to a soft water path

transaction costs capital gains taxes and housing demand abstract the paper considers the effect of transaction costs particularly in the form of capital gains taxes on the aggregate demand for owner occupied housing the framework is an overlapping generations model where consumers can avoid the transaction costs taxes by keeping the same house for both periods of life the first part of the paper analyzes the consumer s choice problem it distinguishes between costs that are fixed irrespective of the size of the house bought or sold and costs such as capital gains taxes that are related to the house value it is shown that higher transaction costs have lock in effects inducing consumers to keep the same house for both periods also it is found that under a wide variety of circumstances the amount of housing demanded will increase as the household is being locked in finally the paper looks at the effects on aggregate demand from an increase in capital gains taxes it is shown that an increased rate of taxation decreases demand for low tax rates but for high tax rates when lock in effects become important one generally gets the opposite effect high tax rates tend to increase housing demand

free primary education fertility and women s access to the labor market evidence from ethiopia this article investigates the causal relationship between women s schooling and fertility by exploiting variation generated by the removal of school fees in ethiopia the increase in schooling caused by the reform is identified using both geographic variation in the intensity of its impact and temporal variation generated by the timing of the implementation the model finds that the removal of school fees led to an increase in schooling for ethiopian women and that each additional year of schooling led to a reduction in fertility an investigation of the underlying mechanisms linking schooling and fertility finds that the decline in fertility is associated with an increase in labor market opportunity and a reduction in women s ideal number of children

spousal control and intra household decision making an experimental study in the philippines i elicit causal effects of spousal observability and communication on financial choices of married individuals in the philippines when choices are private men put money into their personal accounts when choices are observable men commit money to consumption for their own benefit when required to communicate men put money into their wives account these strong treatment effects on men but not women appear related more to control than to gender men whose wives control household savings respond more strongly to the treat ment and women whose husbands control savings exhibit the same response changes in information and communication interact with underlying control to produce mutable gender specific outcomes

household bargaining over fertility theory and evidence from malaysia we develop and test a model of household bargaining over fertility when transfers between spouses are possible the model makes precise how the fertility preferences of each spouse translate into fertility outcomes we show this depends on whether or not spouses can commit to their future actions within marriage if couples bargain with commitment fertility outcomes take account of both spouses fertility preferences and do not depend on the threat point in marital bargaining if couples bargain without commitment the influence of each spouse s fertility preference on fertility outcomes depends on the relevant threat point in marital bargaining and the distribution of bargaining power we test the models using household data from the malaysia family life survey this data set contains information on each spouse s desired fertility level as well as fertility outcomes we exploit differences in threat points in marital bargaining across ethnic groups to help identify the underlying bargaining model the evidence suggests couples bargain without commitment

dynamic asset pricing effects and incidence of realization based capital gains taxes abstract many analyses of capital gains taxation assume that realization based taxes are economically similar to accrual based taxes in equilibrium however the distinctive implications of realization taxes for asset trading through the lock in effect are associated with distinctive dynamic asset pricing effects asset prices are increased by the current realization tax to partly offset the sale disincentive that the tax would otherwise impose the resulting division of the tax burden between buyers and sellers of assets is similar to traditional public finance models of excise tax incidence in product markets

if agricultural land taxation is so efficient why is it so rarely used the land tax enjoys a distinguished pedigree in the theoretical literature on tax efficiency yet it is rarely used as a serious revenue source in rural areas of developing countries this article considers three drawbacks of the land tax relative to taxes on exports or marketed output 1 capitalization effects of the land tax impose a large burden on the current generation 2 land taxation increases the riskiness of net farmer income and 3 administration of the land tax entails costly informational requirements this article demonstrates that only the second and third drawbacks are valid economic arguments against the land tax simulations based on an economic model of farm behavior suggest that farmers may still prefer a land tax to an export tax despite the increased uncertainty of their after tax income administrative costs are therefore the best explanation of the weak link between the theoretical and practical aspects of land taxation

fertility at work children and women s labor market outcomes in urban ghana abstract while it is commonly assumed that fertility decreases female labor supply i show theoretically that fertility can increase female labor supply if returns to financial inputs in children are sufficiently high compared to returns to time investments using six rounds of a panel survey from urban ghana i find evidence of countervailing effects behind a net zero effect of young children on women s hours of work labor supply on the extensive margin drops but women who remain in the labor force increase their hours in response to a child women s labor supply particularly increases in response to a young child if there are older siblings or other adults in the household by contrast men s labor supply does not change in response to young children

the optimal trading and pricing of securities with asymmetric capital gains taxes and transaction costs this article explores the optimal trading and pricing of taxable securities with asymmetric capital gains taxes and transaction costs in the long term region investors realize all gains below some critical cutoff level which we derive analytically in the short term region investors defer all gains and depending upon the time remaining in the short term region may also defer small losses contrary to common intuition deferral of short term losses can be optimal even without transaction costs the value of tax timing is considerably bigger under the optimal trading strategy than under alternative strategies previously analyzed the impact of offset rules is also explored article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

alimony rights and intrahousehold allocation of resources evidence from brazil can family policy affect well being of individuals without altering the resources available to their families this article examines the extension of alimony rights and obligations to cohabiting couples in brazil for women in intact relationships alimony rights upon dissolution should improve outside options strengthening their negotiating positions and increasing their influence over intrahousehold allocation of resources robust econometric evidence indicates that more decision power in the hands of women impacts hours worked by female adults and investments in the education of children this suggests that family policy and models of family decision making should take intrahousehold heterogeneity of preferences into account

housing and endogenous long term growth abstract in this paper we develop an endogenous growth model where housing plays a role as a consumption and an investment good for households as an input to production and as a production sector we show that the long term endogenous growth rate for the economy while not affected by housing related preference parameters depends critically on housing related production parameters the key modeling assumption is that housing and other assets in the economy are not perfect substitutes with this we can show that the endogenous long term growth rate depends on the relative price of housing and other types of capital accordingly the effects of productivity shocks on growth can be understood through their effects on the relative asset price and the corresponding changes in capital intensity we show that productivity shocks to the three sectors of production manufacturing construction and educational and training activities have positive effects on long term growth for reasonable parameter values however the responsiveness of the long term growth rate to shocks in construction is greater than responsiveness to shocks in manufacturing

contraception and the demographic transition inspired by the historical english experience we modify the beckerian paradigm of fertility by incorporating costly societal influence on contraception heterogeneous generationally linked households choose between traditional and modern contraception the modern has a higher fixed but lower variable cost of averting childbirths initially the rich adopt the modern which unleashes society wide diffusion eventually everyone switches lowering fertility further and across households hastening the switch is falling child mortality quantitative experiments suggest contraception was a vital link between the historical mortality and fertility transitions though not the latter s proximate cause implications for more recent transitions are discussed

intra household resource allocation an inferential approach if household income is pooled and then allocated to maximize welfare then income under the control of mothers and fathers should have the same impact on demand with survey data on family health and nutrition in brazil the equality of parental income effects is rejected unearned income in the hands of a mother has a bigger effect on her family s health than income under the control of a father for child survival probabilities the effect is almost twenty times bigger the common preference or neoclassical model of the household is rejected if unearned income is measured with error and income is pooled then the ratio of maternal to paternal income effects should be the same equality of the ratios cannot be rejected there is also evidence for gender preference mothers prefer to devote resources to improving the nutritional status of their daughters fathers to sons

don t tell on me experimental evidence of asymmetric information in transnational households although most theoretical models of household decision making assume perfect information empirical studies suggest that information asymmetries can have large impacts on resource allocation i demonstrate the importance of these asymmetries in transnational households where physical distance between family members can make information barriers especially acute i implement an experiment among migrants in washington dc and their families in el salvador that examines how information asymmetries can have strategic and inadvertent impacts on remittance decisions migrants make an incentivized decision over how much of a cash windfall to remit and recipients decide how they will spend a remittance migrants strategically send home less when their choice is not revealed to recipients recipients make spending choices closer to migrants preferences when the migrants preferences are shared regardless of whether or not the spending choices are revealed to the migrants suggesting that recipients choices are inadvertently affected by imperfect information

more power to the pill the impact of contraceptive freedom on women s life cycle labor supply the release of enovid in 1960 the first birth control pill afforded u s women unprecedented freedom to plan childbearing and their careers this paper uses plausibly exogenous variation in state consent laws to evaluate the causal impact of the pill on the timing of first births and extent and intensity of women s labor force participation the results suggest that legal access to the pill before age 21 significantly reduced the likelihood of a first birth before age 22 increased the number of women in the paid labor force and raised the number of annual hours worked

household bargaining and excess fertility an experimental study in zambia we posit that household decision making over fertility is characterized by moral hazard due to the fact that most contraception can only be perfectly observed by the woman using an experiment in zambia that varied whether women were given access to contraceptives alone or with their husbands we find that women given access with their husbands were 19 less likely to seek family planning services 25 less likely to use concealable contraception and 27 percent more likely to give birth however women given access to contraception alone report a lower subjective well being suggesting a psychosocial cost of making contraceptives more concealable

separate spheres bargaining and the marriage market this paper introduces the separate spheres bargaining model a new model of distribution within marriage it differs from divorce threat bargaining models e g manser brown mcelroy horney in that the threat point is not divorce but a noncooperative equilibrium within marriage this noncooperative equilibrium reflects traditional gender roles the predictions of our model thus differ from those of divorce threat bargaining models in the separate spheres model cash transfer payments to the mother and payments to the father can but need not imply different equilibrium distributions in existing marriages in the long run the distributional effects of transfer policies may be substantially altered by changes in the marriage market equilibrium

large demographic shocks and small changes in the marriage market between 1958 and 1961 china experienced one of the worse famines in her history birth rates fell during these years and recovered immediately afterwards the famine also adversely affected the health of these cohorts this paper provides non parametric estimates of the total effects of the famine on the marital behaviour of famine affected cohorts in the rural areas of sichuan and anhui these reduced from estimates incorporate general equilibrium and heterogeneous treatment effects two important components of equilibrium marital behaviour next the paper uses a structural model of the marriage market the choo siow model to decompose observed marital outcomes into quantity and quality effects of the famine the structural estimates show that the famine substantially reduced the marital attractiveness of the famine born cohort the conclusion is that the small observed changes in marriage rates of the famine born cohorts are due to a substantial decline in their marital attractiveness controlling for changes in educational attainment does not change the conclusion

economic effects of land taxes in an inflationary economy abstract we investigate the incidence of land taxes using a monetary overlapping generations model the real price of land may be raised with a land tax even when the elasticity of saving with respect to the interest rate is positive we may have the crowding out case which is induced by the substitution from capital and land to money the capital loss suffered by older generations holding land during the transition to a land tax may be partially offset by a gain in money balances as inflation abates

cultural endowments and economic development what can we learn from anthropology this article discusses a pattern model used to map the general equilibrium relationship relationship between resource endowments cultural endowments technology and institutions one advantage of the pattern model is that helps to identify areas of ignorance our capacity to model and test the relations between resource endowments and technical change is relatively strong our capacity to model and test the relations between cultural endowments and either technical or institutional change is relatively weak a second advantage of the model is that it is useful in identifying the components that enter into other attempts to account for secular economic and social change failure to analyze historical change in a general equilibrium context tends to result in a unidimensional perspective on the relations bearing on technical and institutional change for example historians working within the marxist tradition often tend to view technical change as dominating both institutional and cultural change cultural endowments including religion and ideology exert at least some influence on the supply of institutional innovation cultural endowments make some forms of institutional change less costly to establish and impose severe costs on others there are a number of reasons that one might look to the field of anthropology for guidance in attempting to understand the sources and impact of cultural endowments on economic development one is that anthropology has traditionally embraced a broad conception of culture ethnographic research through its examination of alternative culture patterns has made substantial contributions to institutional reform

the dynamic efficiency cost of not taxing housing traditional welfare cost estimates of tax subsidies for owner occupied housing are less than 0 5 of gnp in the united states and canada this paper argues that these static measures understate the true cost of the tax subsidy increasing the capital income tax makes untaxed housing more valuable delivering a windfall bonus to existing homeowners at the expense of future generations this intergenerational transfer has real efficiency effects in the presence of pre existing tax distortions when housing is in fixed supply the dynamic efficiency cost of preferential tax treatment for housing is as much as 2 2 of gnp or 120 billion dollars in 1990

unitary or noncooperative intrahousehold model evidence from couples in uganda we present an overview of the evidence regarding the unitary collective and non cooperative models of household decision making and discuss how they can affect individual and household welfare we then discuss the results of an artefactual experiment conducted in uganda with spouses in order to test whether household members maximize common preferences or instead are willing to pay a significant cost to hide money from their spouse we find that both the unitary and non cooperative models exist in the intra household decision making process and that a one size fits all model of household decision making is unlikely to be satisfactory

education and household welfare abstractusing census data from nepal we examine how the partial derivatives of predicted household welfare vary with parental education we focus on fertility child survival schooling and child labor female education is not as strongly associated with beneficial outcomes as is often assumed male education often matters more and part of the association between female education and welfare is driven by marriage market matching with more educated men controlling for the average education of parental cohorts does not change this finding but when we use educational rank to proxy for unobserved ability and family background the positive association between female education and beneficial outcomes becomes weaker or is reversed for women the association between educational rank and outcomes is strong women who obtain more schooling than their peers in school have fewer children and educate them better in contrast for men the statistical association between education and household welfare remains str

lump sum taxation and the superneutrality and optimum quantity of money in life cycle growth models abstract the question of superneutrality and the optimum quantity of money is addressed in a model where money services enter the utility function and where individuals have finite lives it is demonstrated that the existing result in the literature regarding a positive relationship between money creation and the steady state capital intensity and welfare is not due to monetary policy per se on the contrary this is shown to arise because of the intergenerational wealth effects embedded in the manner in which money is created assuming that preferences are separable between consumption goods and real balances and that the consumption goods are normal it is proved that i money is superneutral and ii any other money supply rule is pareto inferior to the chicago rule provided that the government also embarks on a policy of wealth redistribution across generations through the imposition of appropriate lump sum taxes and transfers

redistributive taxation in a simple life cycle model an overlapping generations model with rich and poor life cycle planners is developed positive aspects of redistributive capital and labor taxation are then analyzed the conditions required for feldstein s result that the long run capital labor ratio is invariant to wage taxations are discussed the utility frontier is shown to generally have a slope with an absolute value different from one in the neighborhood of a no tax equilibrium labor income is clearly a more efficient base for long run redistribution only if the economy is dynamically inefficient and the rich household benefits from an increase in the gross interest rate even in this case the labor income base may not be considered more desirable when transitional effects are considered copyright 1989 by the london school of economics and political science

intrahousehold bargaining female autonomy and labor supply theory and evidence from india standard models of labor supply predict that unearned income decreases labor supply we propose an alternative noncooperative household model in which a woman s unearned income improves her autonomy within the household which raises her gains from working and can increase her labor supply we find empirical support for this model using women s exposure to the hindu succession act in india as a source of exogenous variation in their unearned income exposure to the hindu succession act increases a woman s labor supply by between 3 8 and 6 1 percentage points particularly into high paying jobs autonomy increased by 0 17 standard deviations suggesting that control of income is a potential channel for these effects thus policies that empower women can have an additional impact on the labor market which can further reinforce autonomy increases

how women s rights affect fertility evidence from nigeria using data from the demographic and health surveys dhs this paper estimates the effect on fertility of a legal reform in nigeria in 1999 that lowered the value of women s testimony in court i find that the yearly probability of giving birth of women exposed to the reform did not change in general for women exposed to the enforced reform this probability increased by at least 0 04 using stated preferences on fertility i find that fertility increased among women who want fewer children than their husband does but decreased among women who want more children than their husband does i examine the hypothesis that the reform increased for women the value of being married and hence decreased their intra household bargaining power consequently shifting fertility decisions in the direction of husbands preferences jel j13 j18 k10