the importance of group coverage how tax policy shaped u s health insurance in 1954 the internal revenue service stipulated that employer contributions to the health insurance plans of their employees were to be excluded from employee taxable income today the tax subsidy is major feature of the u s health care market this paper examines the initial effects of the tax subsidy on the demand for health insurance using previously unexamined data from 1953 and 1958 results suggest that the tax subsidy increased the growth of group insurance particularly among union members and employed persons this is a critical effect because group insurance is not only less expensive than individual insurance but it is also easier to obtain and households with access to group health insurance are far more likely to purchase health insurance coverage than those without similar access by increasing access to group insurance the tax subsidy fostered an increase in the purchase of group health insurance by people who may not have purchased individual coverage and generated institutional change as it cemented an employment based system of group health insurance in the united states this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the role of investment specific technological change in the business cycle this is a quantitative investigation of the importance of technological change speci c to new investment goods for postwar us aggregate uctuations a growth model that incorporates this form of technological change is calibrated to us data and simulated using the relative price of new equipment to identify the process driving investmentspeci c technology shocks the analysis suggests that this form of technological change is the source of about 30 of output uctuations 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

does it pay for women to volunteer this article estimates the economic and noneconomic returns to volunteering for prime aged women estimates of a dcdp model indicate that an extra year of volunteer experience increases wage offers by 8 5 in future part time work and by 2 6 in future full time work on average working for free increases lifetime earnings by 16 7 the economic returns to volunteering are more important than the noneconomic returns in increasing lifetime utility the model also reveals an adverse selection mechanism into volunteering that helps explain why reduced form regressions of the returns to working for free will likely be downward biased

unemployment insurance and male unemployment duration in canada a model of unemployment duration is estimated with weekly micro data on canadian men entitlement provisions in the unemployment insurance program and demand conditions are found to have a significant effect on the probability of leaving unemployment the probability of a worker leaving unemployment declines with the duration of unemployment holding unemployment insurance entitlement constant when entitlement is allowed to vary the probability of leaving first falls and then generally rises with unemployment duration these results are robust with respect to allowing for person specific unobserved heterogeneity and alternative specifications of duration dependence

measuring permanent responses to capital gains tax changes in panel data the authors use panel data and information about differences in state tax rates to separate the effects of transitory and permanent tax rate changes on capital gains realizations behavior the estimated effect of permanent change is substantially smaller than the effect of transitory change the difference is even larger than differences between estimates from past micro data studies which have primarily measured the transitory effect and time series studies which have primarily measured the permanent effect the authors results resolve a long standing conflict between micro data and time series studies of how marginal tax rates affect capital gains realizations behavior copyright 1994 by american economic association

cyclical factor utilization abstract we introduce procyclical labor and capital utilization as well as costs of rapidly increasing employment into a business cycle model plausible variations in factor utilization enable us to explain observed variability of real gnp with considerably smaller economy wide disturbances the costs of adjustment create very interesting and realistic lead and lag relationships employment does not peak until a full quarter after output workweeks effort capital utilization and productivity all sharply lead the business cycle

household debt and the tax reform act of 1986 prior to the tax reform act of 1986 tra 86 interest paid on all types of household debt was deductible from income before the payment of taxes in 1986 congress changed the law to phase out the deductibility of consumer interest over a five year period congress believed deductibility of interest provided an incentive to invest in consumer durables rather than assets which produce taxable income and therefore an incentive to consume rather than save by phasing out the present deductibility of personal interest congress intended to eliminate from the prior tax law a significant disincentive to saving joint committee on taxation jct 1987 p 263 the other goal of the provision was to raise 9 6 billion per year in tax revenue by 1991 because congress determined that encouraging home ownership is an important policy goal achieved in part by providing a deduction for residential mortgage interest it chose to retain the residential mortgage interest deduction jct 1987 pp 263 64 thus mortgage interest was fully deductible for interest paid on debt secured by a taxpayer s first or second residence up to his basis in the residence the omnibus budget reconciliation act of 1987 obra 87 changed the law so that interest paid was fully deductible on up to 1 million in acquisition debt and 100 000 in home equity debt 2 debt is categorized as acquisition debt if it is used for the purchase or improvement of a home home equity debt includes all other debt secured by a home by keeping the mortgage interest deduction congress may have provided a loophole that some taxpayers could exploit there was no restriction on the use of home equity debt and taxpayers who owned homes could borrow against their home equity to pay for the same purchases they had previously funded with consumer loans homeowners were given an incentive to shuffle their portfolios away from consumer debt into mortgage debt the widespread introduction of home equity lines of credit in the mid 1980 s which may have been spurred in part by the change in tax law provided an inexpensive and flexible method for households to make this shift 3 measuring the extent of portfolio shuffling is important for understanding whether households view mortgage and consumer debt as close substitutes clearly the substitution of mortgage debt for consumer debt undermines the goals of congress to boost saving and increase revenue moreover homeowners already have substantial tax preferences through the lack of taxes on the imputed income from housing and the preferential tax treatment of capital gains on their principal residence the ability to use deductible mortgage debt to finance consumer purchases provides homeowners another tax advantage relative to renters figure 1 plots the percentage change in putnam investments one post office square bos on ma 02109 e mail dean maki putnaminv com this paper was completed while i was on the staff of the board of governors of the federal reserve system financial support from the stanford institute for economic policy research and the lynde and harry bradley foundation is gratefully acknowledged i would like to thank john shoven orazio attanasio john pencavel tim bresnahan anne royalty doug bernheim al teplin craig furfine martha starrmccluer raphael bostic len burman julia coronado two anonymous referees seminar participants and the financial institutions research review group for helpful comments the views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of putnam investments or the federal reserve board or its staff 1 in this paper consumer interest refers to interest paid on consumer loans that are not secured by a residence 2 under tra 86 interest paid on qualified educational and medical debt secured by a home was also deductible even if this debt exceeded the household s basis this provision was not renewed in obra 87 under obra 87 home equity debt also could not exceed the difference between the fair market value of the home and the amount of acquisition debt even if this difference was less than 100 000 3 of course homeowners can also increase their mortgage debt by taking out a traditional home equity loan by taking cash out when refinancing their mortgage or by taking out a larger mortgage when they durchase a home

does the public employment service affect search effort and outcomes in this paper we examine the disincentive effects of the public employment service on the search effort of unemployed workers and on their exit rate from unemployment for that purpose we specify a structural search model with fixed and variable costs of search in which unemployed workers select their optimal search intensity given the exogenous arrival rate of job contacts coming from the public employment agency because the theoretical effect of an increase in this exogenous job contact arrival rate on the structural exit rate from unemployment is ambiguous we estimate this model using individual unemployment duration data our results show that the exit rate from unemployment increases with the arrival rate of job contacts obtained by the public employment service especially for low educated and low skilled workers they also show that the search effort is more costly for low educated women and low skilled adult unemployed workers this last result suggests that a public employment agency that matches searchers and employers is beneficial in the sense that it saves searchers in terms of search costs they would otherwise bear

the determinants of black white differences in early employment careers search layoffs quits and endogenous wage growth this paper studies the transition from school to full time employment and subsequent labor mobility during the first five postschooling years for several recent cohorts of black and white male terminal high school graduates using unique data from the 1979 youth cohort of the national longitudinal surveys of labor market experience a constrained optimization model of labor force dynamics is implemented empirically integrating features of models previously described in the literature the estimates of the model provide quantitative evidence on underlying structural differences in labor market constraints faced by blacks and whites for example while blacks have overall a substantially smaller wage return to work experience and face a less disperse wage offer distribution blacks face a higher probability of receiving job offers

estimating a structural search model the transition from school to work this paper presents a finite horizon search model that is econometrically implemented using all of the restrictions impli ed by the theory following a sample of male high school graduates fr om the youth cohort of the national longitudinal surveys from graduat ion to employment search parameters are estimated reservation wages and offer probabilities are estimated to be quite low simulations a re performed of the impact of changing the parameters on the expected duration of unemployment copyright 1987 by the econometric society

a dynamic analysis of educational attainment occupational choices and job search this article examines career choices using a dynamic structural model that nests a job search model within a human capital model of occupational and educational choices wage growth occurs in the model because workers move between firms and occupations as they search for suitable job matches and because workers endogenously accumulate firm and occupation specific human capital simulations performed using the estimated model reveal that both self selection in occupational choices and mobility between firms account for a much larger share of total earnings and utility than the combined effects of firm and occupation specific human capital

job and wage mobility with minimum wages and imperfect compliance we propose a job search model with minimum wage regulations and imperfect compliance to explain the doubling of the mean and variance of hourly earnings of white males during the first 18 years of labor market experience the model encompasses job mobility and on the job wage growth as sources of wage dynamics and is estimated by simulated generalized method of moments using data from the national longitudinal survey of youths 1979 our estimates provide a good fit for the observed levels and trends of the main job and wage mobility data and for the increase in the mean and variance of wages over the life cycle as well as for the fall in the fraction of workers paid below the minimum wage job mobility explains 40 50 of the observed wage growth increases in the minimum wage and or compliance deliver small effects on the wage distribution and the nonemployment rate

an estimable dynamic stochastic model of fertility and child mortality this paper develops a finite horizon dynamic stochastic model of discrete choice with respect to life cycle fertility within an environment where infant survival is uncertain the model yields implications for the number timing and spacing of children a tractable estimation method is developed for the linear constraint quadratic utility case that is intimately tied to the dynamic optimization problem and the method is applied to malaysian household data estimation is based on integrating the numerical solution of the dynamic programming model of behavior with a maximum likelihood procedure

tax incentives and borrowing we estimate the effect of the danish 1987 tax reform which reduced the tax rate applied to interest deductions from 73 to 50 for households with high incomes but less for households with middle or low incomes using high quality panel data we find that households responded to the reduced tax subsidy by lowering interest payments and we find that the responsiveness to the tax subsidy varies by the initial level of interest payments

factor hoarding and the propagation of business cycles shocks this paper analyzes the role of variable capital utilization rates in propagating shocks over the business cycle to this end we formulate and estimate an equilibrium business cycle model in which cyclical capital utilization rates are viewed as a form of factor hoarding we find that variable capital utilization rates substantially magnify and propagate the impact of shocks to agents environments the strength of these propagation effects is evident in the dynamic response functions of various economy wide aggregates to shocks in agents environments in the statistics that we construct to summarize the strength of the propagation mechanisms in the model and in the volatility of exogenous technology shocks needed to explain the observed variability in aggregate u s output other authors have argued that standard real business cycle rbc models fail to account for certain features of the data because they do not embody quantitatively important propagation mechanisms these features include the observed positive serial correlation in the growth rate of output the shape of the spectrum of the growth rate of real output and the correlation between the forecastable component of real output and various other economic aggregates allowing for variable capital utilization rates substantially improves the ability of the model to account for these features of the data

do people respond to tax incentives an analysis of the italian reform of the deductibility of home mortgage interests abstract before 1992 mortgage interests in italy were fully tax deductible up to 3500 euro 7000 for two cosigners in 1992 1994 the government implemented a series of tax reforms whose ultimate effect was to eliminate the relation between the after tax mortgage rate and the marginal tax rate using data from the 1989 2002 survey of household income and wealth we test if the elimination of incentives has affected the sensitivity of the decision to borrow and the amount borrowed with respect to the marginal tax rate regression analysis and difference in differences estimates indicate that tax considerations have not affected the demand for mortgage debt neither at the extensive nor intensive margin these results are consistent with lack of financial information and credit rationing during the sample period

unemployment insurance and the business cycle an equilibrium model is developed to study the interaction of the business cycle unemployment insurance and the labor market for young men in canada the model combines optimal job oer layo and recall decisions within a numerically solved and restricted bayesian nash equilibrium we consider the long run implications of changes made to unemployment insurance in canada during the 1990s the changes lead to equilibrium increases in average rates of unemployment layos and recalls eliminating ui lowers the equilibrium unemployment

investment shocks and business cycles abstract the origins of business cycles are still controversial among macroeconomists this paper contributes to this debate by studying the driving forces of fluctuations in an estimated new neoclassical synthesis model of the u s economy in this model most of the variability of output and hours at business cycle frequencies is due to shocks to the marginal efficiency of investment imperfect competition and to a lesser extent technological frictions are the key to their transmission although labor supply shocks explain a large fraction of the fluctuations in hours at very low frequencies they are irrelevant over the business cycle this finding is important because the microfoundations of these disturbances are widely regarded as unappealing

effects of permanent and transitory tax changes in a life cycle labor supply model with human capital i examine effects of labor income taxation in life cycle models with human capital accumulation in this case the opportunity cost of time equals the wage plus returns to work experience this has several interesting consequences first the data appear consistent with larger labor supply elasticities than prior work suggests second contrary to conventional wisdom permanent tax changes can have larger effects on current labor supply than temporary changes third human capital dampens responses of young workers to transitory tax changes fourth labor supply elasticities increase with age fifth human capital amplifies the effect of permanent tax changes in the long run

maintenance and investment complements or substitutes a reappraisal a benchmark ak optimal growth model with maintenance expenditures and endogenous utilization of capital is considered within an explicit vintage capital framework scrapping is endogenous and the model allows for a clean distinction between age and usage dependent capital depreciation and obsolescence it is also shown than in this set up past investment profile completely determines the size of current maintenance expenditures among other findings a closed form solution to optimal dynamics is provided taking advantage of very recent development in optimal control of infinite dimensional systems more importantly and in contrast to the pre existing literature we study investment and maintenance co movements without any postulated ad hoc depreciation function in particular using impulse response experiments we find that optimal investment and maintenance do move together in the short run in response to neutral technological shocks which seems to be more consistent with the data

stochastic depreciation and the business cycle the authors study a version of the neoclassical growth model in which shocks to both aggregate productivity and the depreciation of capital generate fluctuations around the steady state growth path depreciation shocks induce an inverse comovement between average labor productivity and hours worked when the model is calibrated to u s data it generates a correlation between productivity and hours which is significantly closer to the observed value than that of standard real business cycle models furthermore the addition of depreciation shocks does not cause a deterioration of the predictions of the model concerning other comovements copyright 1994 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

job search by employed and unemployed youth analysis of data from the new youth cohort of the national longitudinal survey yields evidence that young unemployed job seekers chose higher levels of search effort as measured by number of methods used and time spent per method and lower reservation wages relative to offered wages than did comparable employed job seekers in 1981 these differences in search choices at least partly explain differences in search outcomes between the two groups unemployed searchers apparently were more likely than employed searchers to gain new employment and the wages they obtained were slightly lower the author argues that the greater search effort by unemployed job seekers is due to the higher costs of search they bear because of foregone earnings

capital maintenance and depreciation over the business cycle abstract this paper develops and estimates a stochastic general equilibrium model with capital maintenance which affects endogenously the depreciation rate of capital the estimate of maintenance series is found to track survey based measures for canada quite closely and to generate the procyclical pattern of maintenance observed in the data we use our model estimates to infer the time profile of equipment capital depreciation in canadian and us manufacturing the depreciation rate is estimated to be volatile and highly procyclical in both countries

computers obsolescence and productivity this paper develops a new technique for measuring the effect of computer usage on u s productivity growth standard national income and product accounts nipa measures of the computer capital stock which are constructed by weighting past investments according to a schedule for economic depreciation the rate at which capital loses value as it ages are shown to be inappropriate for growth accounting because they do not capture the effect of a unit of computer capital on productivity this is due to technological obsolescence machines that are still productive are retired because they are no longer near the technological frontier and anticipation of retirement affects economic depreciation using a model that incorporates obsolescence alternative stocks are developed that imply a larger computer usage effect this effect together with the direct effect of increased productivity in the computer producing sector accounted for the improvement in u s productivity growth over 1996 1998 relative to the

measuring human capital and its effects on wage growth ever since mincer years of labour market experience were used to approximate individual s general human capital while years of seniority were used to approximate job specific human capital this specification is restrictive because it assumes that starting wages at a new job depend only on job market experience in this paper i investigate the effects of human capital on wage growth by using a more flexible specification of the wage equation which allows for a rich set of information on past employment spells to affect the starting wages in addition i endogenize the labour mobility decision in order to illuminate the effects of human capital accumulation patterns on wage growth i compare counterfactual career paths for representative individuals copyright 2010 blackwell publishing ltd

endogenous capital depreciation and technology shocks i examine the dynamic impact of capital maintenance on key aggregates through the depreciation rate i find that two factors are crucial for the short run effects of total factor productivity and investment specific shocks i the marginal efficiency of maintenance and its connection with the rate of utilization and ii the interplay between the intertemporal effect of maintenance and the substitution effect between maintenance and utilization the latter is expressed by the relative size of the elasticity of maintenance to the hicksian elasticity of complementarity between maintenance and utilization these theoretical results suggest that to match the observed responses of the macroeconomic aggregates the sign of the cross derivative should be negative and that the relative size of the hicksian elasticity should be smaller than the maintenance elasticity of marginal depreciation finally the model suggests that the main macroeconomic aggregates react procyclically with the exception of maintenance the behavior of which depends on the type of the shock

the specification and estimation of dynamic stochastic discrete choice models a survey our main goal is to quantify the returns to a career in the united states congress we specify a dynamic model of career decisions of a member of congress and estimate this model using a newly collected dataset given estimates of the structural model we

the contributions of search and human capital to earnings growth over the life cycle abstract this paper presents and estimates a unified model where both human capital investment and job search are endogenized this unification enables us to quantify the relative contributions of each mechanism to life cycle earnings growth while investigating potential interactions between human capital investment and job search within the unified framework the expectation of rising rental rates of human capital through job search gives workers more incentive to invest in human capital in addition unemployed workers reduce their reservation rental rates and increase their search effort to leave unemployment quickly to take advantage of human capital accumulation on the job the results show both forces are important for earnings growth and the interactions are substantial human capital accumulation accounts for 50 of total earnings growth job search accounts for 20 and the remaining 30 is due to the interactions of the two

job mobility and the market for lawyers this paper studies the life cycle career choices of law school graduates using unique data from the university of michigan law school the model assumes that these graduates act according to the optimal solution of a dynamic optimization problem in which they sequentially choose among five employment sectors the employment sectors are differentiated by pecuniary and nonpecuniary returns promotion and dismissal probabilities and the extent of transferability of human capital the estimation of the model reveals a self selection mechanism based on unobserved heterogeneity in abilities and expected future returns which plays a critical role in reproducing the sector specific nonmonotonic separation hazards observed in the data the underlying self selection mechanism also has implications for policy interventions in the market for lawyers such as loan forgiveness programs

stochastic growth in the united states and euro area this paper estimates using data from the united states and the euro area a two country stochastic growth model in which both neutral and investment specific technology shocks are nonstationary but cointegrated across economies the results point to large and persistent swings in productivity both favorable and adverse originating in the united states but not transmitted to the euro area more specifically the results suggest that while the euro area missed out on the period of rapid investment specific technological change enjoyed in the united states during the 1990s it also escaped the stagnation in neutral technological progress that plagued the united states in the 1970s

the effect of job tenure on wage offers a wage offer can be either acceptable or unacceptable to a worker but in cross sectional and panel data only acceptable wage offers are observed an ols wage equation will not reveal how job tenure affects wage offers but rather will reveal how tenure affects acceptable wage offers by jointly modeling the firm s determination of the wage offer and the worker s decision to accept or reject the offer we are able to estimate the effect of job tenure on wage offers consistently in contrast to the usual ols results we find that job tenure has no statistically significant effect on wage offers

the impact of mortgage interest rate subsidies on household borrowing abstract the responsiveness of household borrowing to changes in the interest rate is a crucial parameter for assessing public policies aimed at promoting saving we estimate the effect on household borrowing of a reform of a program that subsidized interest rates on mortgages signed by medium and low income households the reform established a ceiling in the price of the house that could be financed with the program first we use triple difference estimators exploiting the fact that the reform should affect most the borrowing behavior of eligible individuals living in high price areas and estimate that the elasticity of the probability getting a loan to the interest rate lies between 2 8 and 1 3 second we document that after the reform the distribution of loan sizes became more concentrated at the discontinuity point of the budget constraint of eligible individuals both findings are consistent with a negative response of household borrowing to increases in interest rates

house price appreciation liquidity constraints and second mortgages abstract this paper analyzes how households use second mortgages in response to shocks to housing wealth two related questions are examined do households use home equity in response to house price appreciation are liquidity constraints important for homeowners a theoretical model shows that liquidity constrained households respond more strongly to house price changes than unconstrained households using psid i find noteworthy differences in borrowing patterns of homeowners by the ratio of wealth to income low wealth to income homeowners exhibit a strong reaction to house price appreciation whereas high wealth to income ones do not the results indicate the importance of liquidity constraints among homeowners

patents as options some estimates of the value of holding european patent stocks in many countries holders of patents must pay an annual renewal fee in order to keep their patents in force this paper uses data on the proportion of patents renewed and the renewal fees faced by post world war ii cohorts of patents in france the united kingdom and germany in conjunction with a model of patent holders renewal decisions to estimate the returns earned from holding patents in these countries since patents are often applied for at a nearly stage in the innovation process the model allows agents to be uncertain about the sequence of returns that will be earned if the patent is kept inforce formally then the paper presents and solves a discrete choice optimal stochastic control model derives the implications of the model on aggregate behaviour and then estimates the parameters of the model from aggregate data the estimates enable a detailed description of the evolution of the distribution of returns earned from holding patents over their life spans and calculations of both the annual returns earned from holding the patents still in force or the patent stocks in the alternative countries and the distribution of the discounted value of returns earned from holding the patents in a cohort this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the long term effects of youth unemployment using nlsy data we examine the long term effects of youth unemployment on later labor market outcomes involuntary unemployment may yield suboptimal investments in human capital in the short run a theoretical model of dynamic human capital investment predicts a rational catch up response using semiparametric techniques to control for the endogeneity of prior behavior our estimates provide strong evidence of this response we also find evidence of persistence in unemployment combining our semiparametric estimates with a dynamic approximation to the lifecycle we find that unemployment experienced as long ago as ten years continues to affect earnings adversely despite the catch up response

real business cycles in this paper we demonstrate how certain very ordinary economic principles lead maximizing individuals to choose consumption production plans that display many of the characteristics commonly associated with business cycles our explanation is entirely consistent with i rational expectations ii complete current information iii stable preferences iv no technological change v no long lived commodities vi no frictions or adjustment costs vii no government viii no money and ix no serial dependence in the stochastic elements of the environment we also provide a completely worked out example of the type of artificial economy we have in mind the time series properties of the example exhibit some major features of observed business cycles although this type of model may not be capable of explaining all of the regularities in actual business cycles we believe that it provides a useful well defined benchmark for assessing the relative importance of factors e g monetary disturbances

the effect of individual retirement accounts on household consumption and national saving a major debate exists on whether expanding tax favoured savings accounts such as individual retirement accounts iras will increase national savings much of the empirical debate has centred on whether ira contributions before the tax reform act of 1986 represented new savings or merely reshuffled assets we find no evidence that households financed their ira contributions from reductions in consumption at least initially we find evidence that households financed their ira contributions from existing savings or from saving that would have been done anyway our results indicate that at most 9 of ira contributions represented net additions to national saving

redistributive taxation and personal bankruptcy in u s states abstract personal bankruptcy regulation and redistributive taxes and transfers vary considerably across u s states and over time our hypothesis is that both policies are imperfect substitutes in insuring consumption of risk averse agents in incomplete markets exploiting data variation over time for 18 u s states for the period 1980 2003 we find considerable support for this hypothesis redistributive taxation and bankruptcy exemptions are negatively correlated and both policies are associated with more equal consumption growth

the workweek of capital and its cyclical implications abstract the neoclassical growth model studied in the kydland and prescott time to build paper is modified to permit the capital utilization rate to vary the effect of this modification is to increase the amplitude of the aggregate fluctuations predicted by theory as the equilibrium response to technological shocks if following solow the changes in output not accounted for by changes in the labor and tangible capital inputs are interpreted as being the technology shocks the statistical properties of the fluctuations in the postwar united states economy are close in magnitude and nature to those predicted by theory

job matching and occupational choice this paper presents a model of job matching the generalizes the existing literature by allowing for different jobs types or occupations such differences affect the value of job specific experience inducing a career profile where certain types are sampled before others more specifically the analysis shows that it is optimal for the young and inexperienced to gravitate toward jobs exhibiting a certain kind of risk then after deriving the equilibrium job turnover rate for an economy in which people do not switch occupations panel data are used to estimate its underlying parameters the hypothesis that people do not switch occupations is rejected against the alternative that they do thus providing empirical support for the theoretical extension undertaken here

does a foot in the door matter white nonwhite differences in the wage return to tenure and prior workplace experience author affiliation arthur h goldsmith department of economics washington and lee university lexington va 24450 usa goldsmitha wlu edu corresponding authordarrick hamilton milano the new school of management and urban policy 72 fifth avenue new york ny 10011 usa hamiltod newschool eduwilliam darity jr department of economics university of north carolina at chapel hill chapel hill nc 27514 usa darity unc edu this work is supported by grant 0213838 from the national science foundation acknowledgment we are grateful for suggestions provided by barry hirsch and seminar participants at bond university gold coast australia in addition we are grateful for comments from julie hotchkiss co editor for this journal and two anonymous referees this paper was presented at the 2004 southern economic association meetings 1 overviewthere is an extensive literature documenting the lower wages of black and latino workers relative to white workers in the united states the explanations for these racial and ethnic wage disparities have ranged from differential accumulation of human capital to labor market discrimination 1 farmer and terrell 1996 and more recently lewis and terrell 2001 extend this literature by advancing a hypothesis which we summarize as the theory of ability misperception this hypothesis explains how group membership may differentially influence the gains associated with workplace experience and hence the relative wages of black and latino workers over the course of their working lifecycle their basic idea is twofold first employers believe nonwhite employees acquired fewer skills on prior jobs than white workers thus employers will reward additional experience with prior employers to a greater extent for white workers than for nonwhite workers we refer to this hypothesis as proposition 1 this first proposition falls under the umbrella of statistical discrimination which explains wage inequality as a result of employers offering nonwhite workers lower wages as a result of employer reliance on their perception that the distribution of skills for nonwhite workers is worse than that of white workers second as employers directly observe nonwhite workers on the job they come to realize that their perceptions concerning the distribution of skills for nonwhite workers were incorrect and consequently they have underrated the ability of nonwhite employees this learning leads employers to update their assessment of the relative productivity of nonwhite workers therefore racial ethnic differences in the return to additional tenure or seniority with the current employer will be smaller than the racial ethnic difference in the return to prior experience when proposition 1 holds this prediction constitutes proposition 2 of the theory of ability misperception in addition we introduce a third proposition or a strong form of proposition 2 which suggests that the returns to additional tenure for nonwhite employees will actually exceed that of white employees thus proposition 2 requires that the difference in returns to additional tenure with the current employer between nonwhite and white workers be smaller than the difference in returns to prior experience while proposition 3 requires that nonwhite workers actually receive a higher return for tenure the purpose of this paper is to advance the existing empirical literature aimed at evaluating the validity of the propositions central to the theory of ability misperception using data drawn from the multi city study of urban inequality mcsui if farmer and terrell 1996 and lewis and terrell 2001 are correct that employers underestimate the skills of nonwhite workers before directly observing them at the worksite then many capable nonwhite applicants will be denied work and if employed will suffer undue economic losses