nonmonetary effects of the financial crisis in propagation of the great depression this paper examines the effects of the financial crisis of the 1930s onthe path of aggregate output during that period our approach is complementary to that of friedman and schwartz who emphasized the monetary impact of the bank failures we focus on non monetary primarily credit related aspects of the financial sector output link and consider the problems of debtors as well as those of the banking system we argue that the financial disruptions of 1930 33 reduced the efficiency of the credit allocation process and that the resulting higher cost and reduced availability of credit acted to depress aggregate demand evidence suggests that effects of this type can help explain the unusual length and depth of the great depression this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

bank risk taking securitization supervision and low interest rates evidence from the euro area and the u s lending standards using a unique dataset of the euro area and the u s bank lending standards we find that low monetary policy short term interest rates soften standards for household and corporate loans this softening especially for mortgages is amplified by securitization activity weak supervision for bank capital and low monetary policy rates for an extended period conversely low long term interest rates do not soften lending standards finally countries with softer lending standards before the crisis related to negative taylor rule residuals experienced a worse economic performance afterward these results help shed light on the origins of the crisis and have important policy implications the author 2011 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oup com oxford university press

consequences of bank distress during the great depression the consequences of bank distress for the economy during the depression remain an area of unresolved controversy since john m keynes 1931 and irving fisher 1933 macroeconomists have argued that bank distress magnified the extent of the economic decline during the depression as the intermediaries controlling money and credit banks were in a special position to transmit their distress to other sectors but the mechanism through which banking distress mattered for the economy has been hotly contested milton friedman and anna j schwartz 1963 saw the contraction in the money multiplier driven in their view by panicked depositors withdrawals of deposits as the primary mechanism through which banking distress affected the real economy they described the mechanism transmitting banking distress to the real sector as operating at the national level through changes in the aggregate supply of money and interest rates bank distress reduced the money supply available to the public either through the closure of banks and the consequent freezing of bank deposits or the withdrawals of deposits by depositors that feared bank failure ben s bernanke 1983 building on fisher 1933 emphasized the transmission of monetary shocks via their effects on the balance sheets of borrowers and on the supply of credit by banks borrowers balance sheets were worsened by debt deflation as the result of fixed dollar debt obligations borrowers net worth and cash flow declined with the rising value of debt service costs relative to income borrowers with positive net present value projects but weak balance sheets had less internally generated retained earnings to invest and could not qualify for credit furthermore bernanke argued that the contraction of the money supply produced contraction of nominal income and prices relative to fixed debt service which weakened borrowers balance sheets and in turn weakened banks not only did firms financial distress reduce the number of qualified borrowers the contraction in banks net worth forced a reduction in the supply of bank loans to qualified borrowers many firms and individuals relied on banks for credit and as those banks suffered losses of capital due to asset value declines and contractions in deposits as depositors reacted to bank weakness by withdrawing their funds even borrowers with viable projects and strong balance sheets experienced a decrease in the effective supply of loanable funds bernanke termed the combined weakening of borrowers balance sheets and the contraction in bank credit supply a rise in the cost of credit intermediation the scarcity of perfect substitutes for the positive net present value investments of firms with weak balance sheets and for the credit supplied by existing banks implies that the weakening of firms and banks balance sheets the disappearance of banks and the contraction in surviving banks lending made it more difficult for the economy to channel funds to their best use thus what began as a contraction in aggregate demand became a contraction in aggregate supply which magnified adverse economic shocks and prolonged and deepened the depression the financial distress of firms and banks and the decline in bank lending were not only symptoms of the depression but means for magnifying the shocks that caused the depression bernanke s statistical evidence in support of this story is derived from time series analysis at the national level in calomiris graduate school of business 601 uris hall columbia university 3022 broadway new york ny 10027 and national bureau of economic research e mail cc374 columbia edu mason department of finance drexel university 3141 chestnut street philadelphia pa 19104 e mail joe mason drexel edu we thank valerie ramey david wheelock charles himmelberg steve zeldes gary gorton two referees and seminar participants at columbia university wharton northwestern university and the 2001 economic history association meetings for helpful comments on an earlier draft we gratefully acknowledge support from the national science foundation the university of illinois and the federal reserve bank of st louis

special purpose entities and bank loan contracting abstract in this study we show that a firm s use of special purpose entities spes is associated with unfavorable loan contract terms including higher loan rates collateral requirements and restrictive covenants further analyses suggest that the association between the use of spes and unfavorable loan contract terms is primarily due to the increase in the information risk faced by lenders as firm managers can easily use spes to manipulate earnings and hide losses specifically we find that the use of spes has a more pronounced effect on increasing the cost of loans and causing more stringent non price loan terms when managers have a stronger incentive to manipulate earnings and when banks have less knowledge about the spe sponsor firms due to the lack of prior lending relationship in addition we find that the use of spes is associated with a greater likelihood of accounting restatements and greater information asymmetry between inside managers and outside capital suppliers

the finance growth nexus evidence from bank branch deregulation this paper provides evidence that financial markets can directly affect economic growth by studying the relaxation of bank branch restrictions in the united states we find that the rates of real per capita growth in income and output increase significantly following intrastate branch reform we also argue that the observed changes in growth are the result of changes in the banking system improvements in the quality of bank lending not increased volume of bank lending appear to be responsible for faster growth

hearing the voices of the poor assigning poverty lines on the basis of local perceptions of poverty a quantitative analysis of qualitative data from participatory wealth ranking in rural south africa summary we applied a mixed methods approach to participatory wealth ranking pwr to identify the number of poor households in eight villages of rural south africa and describe how poor they are we generated a household wealth index on the basis of the ranking process and statements made on standard of living descriptions from pwr identified households as very poor poor but a bit better off or doing ok of 9 671 households 3 113 32 2 could be considered very poor or poor the paper presents a novel approach to wealth ranking that generates a rich appraisal of poverty

poverty comparisons over time and across countries in africa abstract we use demographic and health surveys dhs to compare poverty at two or more points in time within and between african countries our welfare measure is an index resulting from a factor analysis of various household characteristics durables and household heads education an advantage of this measure is that for intertemporal and intraregional comparisons we need not rely on suspect price deflators and currency conversion factors the wide availability and similarity of questionnaires of the dhs facilitate comparisons over both time and countries our results generally show declines in poverty during the previous decade largely due to improvements in rural areas

empirical studies of financial innovation lots of talk little action this paper reviews the extant empirical studies of financial innovation adopting broad criteria we could find only somewhat more than two dozen studies and since some financial innovations are examined by more than one study they cover only seventeen phenomena especially striking is the fact that only two studies offer tests of the broad hypotheses concerning the environmental conditions spurring financial innovation e g regulation taxes unstable macroeconomic conditions and ripe technologies that have been advanced in descriptive articles we offer some tentative conjectures as to why empirical studies of financial innovation are comparatively rare among our suggested culprits is an absence of accessible data we urge financial regulators to undertake more surveys of financial innovation and to make the survey data more available to researchers

research in accounting for income taxes abstract this paper comprehensively reviews the accounting for income taxes afit literature we begin by identifying four distinctive aspects of afit and briefly covering the rules surrounding afit we then review the existing studies in detail and offer suggestions for future research we emphasize the research questions that have been addressed most of which relate to whether the tax accounts are used to manage earnings and whether the tax accounts are priced by equity market participants we also highlight areas that have not received much research attention and that warrant future analysis

poverty and household size the widely held view that larger families tend to be poorer in developing countries has influenced research and policy the scope for size economies in consumption cautions against this view we find that the correlation between poverty and size vanishes in pakistan when the size elasticity of the cost of living is about 0 6 this turns out to be the elasticity implied by a modified version of the food share method of setting scales by contrast some measures of child nutritional status indicate an elasticity of unity consideration of the weight attached to child versus adult welfare may help resolve the non robustness of demographic profiles of poverty excerpt

socioeconomic stratification by wealth ranking is it valid abstract this paper validates a rapid rural appraisal wealth ranking technique using standard socioeconomic indicators from a household survey in rural bangladesh key informants stratified 1 637 households into three wealth groups according to a number of broad criteria and a questionnaire was subsequently administered to each household health demographic and economic variables derived from the questionnaire were found to differ significantly according to wealth group analysis supports the construct validity and empirical validity of the wealth ranking technique as a means of stratifying households by socioeconomic status the requirements for external validity as assessed through the comparison of findings with similar studies elsewhere in south asia are also satisfied

housing price booms and crowding out effects in bank lending analyzing the period 1988 2006 we document that banks that are active in strong housing markets increase mortgage lending and decrease commercial lending firms that borrow from these banks have significantly lower investment this is especially pronounced for firms that are more capital constrained or borrow from more constrained banks various extensions and robustness analyses are consistent with the interpretation that commercial loans were crowded out by banks responding to profitable opportunities in mortgage lending rather than with a demand based interpretation the results suggest that housing prices appreciations have negative spillovers to the real economy which were overlooked thus far received november 29 2016 editorial decision january 12 2018 by editor david hirshleifer authors have furnished an internet appendix which is available on the oxford university press web site next to the link to the final published paper online

are bank holding companies a source of strength to their banking subsidiaries i document evidence that a bank affiliated with a multi bank holding company mbhc is significantly safer than either a stand alone bank or a bank affiliated with a one bank holding company not only does mbhc affiliation reduce the probability of future financial distress but distressed affiliated banks are also more likely to receive capital injections recover more quickly and are less likely to fail over the next year moreover the measured benefits of affiliation are much larger than those that existed before recent reforms of bank holding company regulation suggesting that much of the observed benefit can be attributed to regulation and not the market

credit supply and the price of housing we show that since 1994 branching deregulations in the u s have signi cantly af fected the supply of mortgage credit and ultimately house prices with deregulation the number and volume of originated mortgage loans increase while denial rates fall but the deregulation has no eect on a placebo sample formed of mortgage compa nies that should not be aected by the regulatory change this sharpens the causal interpretation of our results deregulation acts to relax access to mortgage credit and pushes the demand for house ownership outwards interestingly the fraction of securi tized mortgage loans remains unchanged through the process we nd evidence house prices rise with branching deregulation and particularly in metropolitan areas where construction is inelastic for topographic reasons we document these results in a large sample of counties across the u s we also focus on a reduced cross section formed by counties on each side of a state border where a regression discontinuity approach is possible our conclusions are strengthened jel classi cation numbers g21 g10 g12

systemic risks and the too big to fail problem the financial crisis of 2007 9 resulted in state intervention in financial markets around the world and the state became a major shareholder in many banks while state bailouts were politically sensitive policy makers had little alternative but to supply funds to financial institutions that were viewed as too big to fail or tbtf in this paper i review the history of and the rationale for the tbtf policy i argue that from a policy perspective the most important costs of the tbtf problem are incurred ex ante in the form of distorted incentives that arise as a consequence of distortions to the capital markets and to the choice of banks scale and scope i argue that it is impossible credibly to withdraw the tbtf policy and hence that it should be managed so as to minimize the costs of these distortions in this context i discuss the role of policy in institutional design in the restriction of bank scope and in designing appropriate capital regulations

using an asset index to assess trends in poverty in seven sub saharan african countries summary using comparable nationally representative surveys and extending the work of sahn d e stifel d c 2000 poverty comparisons over time and across countries in africa world development 28 12 2123 2155 an asset index is used to investigate changes in poverty in seven african countries poverty declined in five of the seven countries improvements in the asset index are driven by progress in the accumulation of private assets while access to public services has deteriorated however the method has some shortcomings assets are slow changing and discrete the index therefore may not capture changes in well being accurately the poor discrimination ability of the index at the lower end of the scale also makes it an inappropriate tool for studying ultra poverty

the real effects of banking shocks evidence from oecd countries abstract this paper studies the impact of shocks to banks balance sheets on real economic activity the sample consists of 18 oecd countries observed annually from 1979 to 2003 using the rajan zingales method i find that industries that depend more heavily on external finance respond more strongly to bank income shocks suggesting that banking shocks propagate to the real economy the bank effect lasts for 2 years but it is economically significant mainly for large shocks which are relatively rare similar findings are obtained by comparing durable versus non durable goods and by estimating aggregate bank effects

bank capital regulation in a barrier option framework abstract the barrier options theory of corporate security valuation is applied to the contingent claims of a regulated bank the regulator insurer of a bank owns a down and in call option on the bank assets which can be balanced against the expected coverage cost raising the regulatory barrier critical asset level triggering bank closure leads to a transfer of wealth from stockholders to the insurer and reduces stockholder incentives to increase asset risk empirical tests on a sample of 152 one bank holding companies show that regulatory barriers are priced in the stock market and are inversely related to tier 1 leverage ratios

financial integration housing and economic volatility abstract the great recession illustrates the sensitivity of the economy to housing this paper shows that financial integration fostered by securitization and nationwide branching amplified the positive effect of housing price shocks on the economy during the 1994 2006 period we exploit variation in credit supply subsidies across local markets from government sponsored enterprises to measure housing price changes unrelated to fundamentals using this instrument we find that house price shocks spur economic growth the effect is larger in localities more financially integrated through both secondary loan market and bank branch networks financial integration thus raised the effect of collateral shocks on local economies increasing economic volatility

cyclicality of credit supply firm level evidence abstract we quantify fluctuations in bank loan supply in the time series by studying firms substitution between loans and bonds using firm level data any firm that raises new debt must have a positive demand for external funds conditional on the issuance of new debt we interpret firms switching from loans to bonds as a contraction in bank credit supply we find strong evidence of this substitution at times that are characterized by tight lending standards depressed aggregate lending poor bank performance and tight monetary policy we show that this substitution behavior has strong predictive power for bank borrowing and investments by small firms

economies of scale household size and the demand for food household scale economies are plausibly attributed to shared household public goods that make larger households better off at the same level of per capita resources larger households should therefore have higher per capita consumption of private goods such as food provided that they do not substitute too much toward the effectively cheaper public goods the evidence shows exactly the opposite data from rich and poor countries indicate that at constant per capita total expenditure the per capita demand for food decreases with household size and that it does so most in the poorest countries where substitution should be the least

estimating the scale and geography of global poverty now and in the future how much difference do method and assumptions make summary estimates of the historic and future scale and location or geography of global poverty by income expenditure have a long and contentious history in recent projections made on global poverty methods and assumptions vary so widely it is impossible to compare studies in a systematic way even on their estimates of current poverty in light of this we discuss the methodological issues arising and use a custom built model to provide a new consistent set of long run estimates of global poverty to show the impact of different methods and assumptions on the scale and location of global poverty

income and wealth heterogeneity in the macroeconomy how do movements in the distribution of income and wealth affect the macroeconomy we analyze this question using a calibrated version of the stochastic growth model with partially uninsurable idiosyncratic risk and movements in aggregate productivity our main finding is that in the stationary stochastic equilibrium the behavior of the macroeconomic aggregates can be almost perfectly described using only the mean of the wealth distribution this result is robust to substantial changes in both parameter values and model specification our benchmark model whose only difference from the representative agent framework is the existence of uninsurable idiosyncratic risk displays far less cross sectional dispersion and skewness in wealth than u s data however an extension that relies on a small amount of heterogeneity in thrift does succeed in replicating the key features of the wealth data furthermore this extension features aggregate time series that depart significantly from permanent income behavior

the effect of bank failures on economic activity evidence from u s states in the early 20th century this paper provides evidence documenting the existence of a bank failure channel the magnifying effect of bank failures on economic distress using state level quarterly time series from 1900q1 to 1929q4 we estimate a vector autoregression model of bank failures for each state the forecast error variance decompositions are used to construct a categorical measure of the bank failure channel we examine the influence of regulatory variables economic conditions and banking conditions on the degree to which bank failures propagate distress state sponsored deposit insurance and minimum capital requirements are important for explaining the likelihood of having a bank failure channel

traditional wealth modern goods and demographic behavior in rural senegal summary the study investigates the relationships of demographic indicators fertility mortality marriage education with modern and traditional wealth in rural senegal data were based on rural households interviewed in the 2011 dhs survey an absolute wealth index was computed from a list of 15 modern goods a traditional wealth index was computed from data on land and livestock per capita modern wealth was always associated with modern demographic behavior lower fertility lower mortality higher age at marriage higher level of education whereas traditional wealth was not associated with fertility and mortality and was negatively associated with marriage and education

firms off balance sheet and hybrid debt financing evidence from their book tax reporting differences we match large u s corporations tax returns during 1989 2001 to their financial statements to construct a firm level proxy of firms use of off balance sheet and hybrid debt financing we find that firms with less favorable prior period standard poor s s p bond ratings or higher leverage ratios in comparison to their industry report greater amounts of interest expense on their tax returns than to investors and creditors on their financial statements these between firm results are consistent with credit constrained firms using more structured financing arrangements our within firm tests also suggest that firms use more structured financing arrangements when they enter into contractual loan agreements that provide incentives to manage debt ratings specifically we find that after controlling for s p bond rating and industry adjusted leverage our sample firms report greater amounts of interest expenses for tax than for financial statement purposes when they enter into performance pricing contracts that use senior debt rating covenants to set interest rates furthermore we find that the greatest book tax reporting changes occur when firms become closer to violating these debt rating covenants these latter findings are consistent with firms contractual debt covenants influencing their use of off balance sheet and hybrid debt financing

the employment effects of credit market disruptions firm level evidence from the 2008 9 financial crisis this article investigates the effect of bank lending frictions on employment outcomes i construct a new data set that combines information on banking relationships and employment at 2 000 nonfinancial firms during the 2008 9 crisis the article first verifies empirically the importance of banking relationships which imply a cost to borrowers who switch lenders i then use the dispersion in lender health following the lehman crisis as a source of exogenous variation in the availability of credit to borrowers i find that credit matters firms that had precrisis relationships with less healthy lenders had a lower likelihood of obtaining a loan following the lehman bankruptcy paid a higher interest rate if they did borrow and reduced employment by more compared to precrisis clients of healthier lenders consistent with frictions deriving from asymmetric information the effects vary by firm type lender health has an economically and statistically significant effect on employment at small and medium firms but the data cannot reject the hypothesis of no effect at the largest or most transparent firms abstracting from general equilibrium effects i find that the withdrawal of credit accounts for between one third and one half of the employment decline at small and medium firms in the sample in the year

empirical tax research in accounting this paper traces the development of archival microeconomic based empirical income tax research in accounting over the last 15 years the paper details three major areas of research i the coordination of tax and non tax factors ii the effects of taxes on asset prices and iii the taxation of multijurisdictional international and interstate commerce methodological concerns of particular interest to this field also are discussed the paper concludes with a discussion of possible directions for future research r 2001 elsevier science b v all rights reserved jel classification m41 h25 k34 g32 f23

credit crunch caused by bank failures and self selection behavior in lending markets this study investigates how bank failures affect the real economy from the lenders perspective using experimental settings of unique bank failures in japan this paper identifies the credit crunch effect by bank failures the main findings are the following first bank failures decrease the investments of the client firms by approximately 30 second the high investment growth level firms deal with unhealthy banks these choices generate a self selection bias of 30 80 third there is no evidence that bank failure shock is related to the firms accessibility to other financial sources

deposit insurance and subsidized recapitalizations the 2007 2009 financial crisis saw a vast expansion in deposit insurance guarantees around the world and yet our understanding of the design and consequences of deposit insurance schemes is in its infancy we provide a new rationale for the provision of deposit insurance in our model the banking sector exhibits both adverse selection and moral hazard which implies that the social benefits of bank monitoring must for incentive reasons be shared between depositors and banks consequently socially too few deposits are made in equilibrium deposit insurance or equivalently bank recapitalization corrects this market failure we find that deposit insurance should be funded not by banks or depositors but out of general taxation the optimal level of deposit insurance varies inversely with the quality of the banking system hence when the soundness of the financial sector is uncertain governments should consider supporting deposit insurance schemes and undertaking subsidized recapitalizations

are banks really special new evidence from the fdic induced failure of healthy banks the fdic used cross guarantees in order to close 38 subsidiaries of first republicbank corporation in 1988 and 18 subsidiaries of first city bankcorporation in 1992 when lead banks from each of these texas based bank holding companies were declared insolvent i use this plausibly exogenous failure of otherwise healthy subsidiary banks as a natural experiment in order to study the impact of bank failure on local area real economic activity the resolution of these institutions was associated with a significant decline in failed bank lending that led to a permanent reduction in real county income of about 3 percent jel codes e5 g18 g33 keywords bank failures cross guarantee uniqueness of banks

tax planning regulatory capital planning and financial reporting strategy for commercial banks we test whether banks investment and financing policies can be explained by tax status we document changes in bank holdings of municipal bonds in response to changes in tax rules relating to deductibility of interest expense we also document an association between banks marginal tax rates and their investment and financing decisions which is consistent with the existence of tax clienteles however banks do not sort themselves perfectly into investment and financing clienteles because of adjustment costs we posit specific types of transaction cost impediments to tax planning and document that banks apparently trade off these costs against tax planning benefits article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

cephalon inc taking risk management theory seriously cephalon inc a biotech firm bought call options on its own stock to meet its conditional cash flow needs we analyze this decision by using the cash flow hedging concepts of froot et al 1993 journal of finance 5 1629 1658 we identify the managerial analyses necessary to apply this theory and discuss managerial considerations absent from the theory we find that managers consider deadweight costs of risk management which theory tends to ignore theory provides little guidance in how to measure these and other deadweight costs finally uncertainty about the availability of external financing and accounting considerations are critical considerations by managers

how big a problem is too big to fail a review of gary stern and ron feldman s too big to fail the hazards of bank bailouts this review essay examines whether too big to fail is as serious a problem as gary stern and ron feldman contend this essay argues that stern and feldman overstate the importance of the too big to fail problem and do not give enough credit to the fdicia legislation of 1991 for improving bank regulation and supervision however this criticism of the stern and feldman book does not detract from many of its messages the policy recommendations in their book have merit even if the too big to fail problem is currently not that serious because these policies make it less likely that a banking crisis will occur even if driven by other factors

motives for forming research development financing organizations abstract we study the decision to fund r d through a separate financing organization an rdfo that takes the form of either a limited partnership or a corporation the rdfo offers tax and financial reporting benefits as a form of external funding it also creates moral hazard and adverse selection problems information costs using convertible debt as a comparative form of external funding we find that debt related but not equity related financial reporting benefits affect the decision to form rdfos the evidence is mixed on whether taxes influence the formation decision and the information costs of rdfos restrict their use

capital regulation and the macroeconomy empirical evidence and macroprudential policy abstract we present new evidence on the macroeconomic effects of changes in microprudential bank capital requirements using confidential regulatory data from the basel i and ii regimes in the united kingdom our central result is that an increase in capital requirements lowered lending to firms and households reduced aggregate expenditure and raised credit spreads a financial accelerator effect is found to have amplified the macroeconomic responses to shifts in bank credit supply results from a counterfactual experiment that links capital requirements to house prices and mortgage spreads indicate that tighter macroprudential policy would have had a moderating effect on house price and mortgage lending growth in the early 2000s with easier monetary policy acting to offset its contractionary effects on output

explicit and implicit tax effects of the r d tax credit this paper investigates the effects of the 1981 research and development r d tax credit first by examining the impact of the credit on the level of r d investment and second by estimating the magnitude of the implicit tax created by the credit the two effects are interrelated because an increase in the level of r d investment will increase the demand for r d inputs thus reducing the pretax rate of return from r d activity 1 i test the credit s investment effect using a time series r d spending model that includes both factors from the industrial organization literature to control for nontax effects and an r d credit usability variable to capture the incentive created by the credit previous research has produced mixed evidence on whether the credit had any positive