discovery of natural resources a class of general equilibrium models abstract when is the discovery of natural resources a curse for a country s industrialization and when is it a blessing a large literature on economic development has collected evidence on both directions this paper discusses a class of general equilibrium models that deals with natural resource discoveries and evaluates its potential to accommodate both successful and unsuccessful resource based industrialization experiences under different model settings particularly it analyzes the importance of disentangling price and quantity effects it illustrates that in closed model economies or large open economies with vertical integration between manufacturing and energy sectors the long run effect on the production of manufacturing goods will depend mainly on the equilibrium price of the natural resource good moreover the strength of the vertical integration even for small open economies determines the limits to accommodate blessing or curse type of theories

allocation of fixed transmission cost to wheeling transactions by cooperative game theory this paper describes a methodology to allocate the cost of transmission network facilities to wheeling transactions in decentralized power systems the authors propose that the responsibility placed on transmission facilities involved in each transaction be according to the transmission usage pattern their proposal incorporates the mw mile method and considers economies of scale of transmission network facilities they also incorporate a nucleolus scheme in the cooperative game theory to deal with matters of conflict the applicability of their method is demonstrated in a numerical example

transmission system management and pricing new paradigms and international comparisons the transmission system once the necessary but nearly invisible component of the electric power system is now the focus of physical electrical and financial attention of the utility and more significantly their potential suppliers customers this paper has three primary objectives the first is to present a discussion of a new paradigm for the electric power industry the second is to review transmission pricing options specifically those utilizing either long run lrmc or short run srmc marginal cost based approaches the third is to provide a review of innovative approaches to transmission asset management and finance as seen from international experience

natural resources curse or blessing are natural resources a curse or a blessing the empirical evidence suggests that either outcome is possible this paper surveys a variety of hypotheses and supporting evidence for why some countries benefit and others lose from the presence of natural resources these include that a resource bonanza induces appreciation of the real exchange rate deindustrialization and bad growth prospects and that these adverse effects are more severe in volatile countries with bad institutions and lack of rule of law corruption presidential democracies and underdeveloped financial systems another hypothesis is that a resource boom reinforces rent grabbing and civil conflict especially if institutions are bad induces corruption especially in nondemocratic countries and keeps in place bad policies finally resource rich developing economies seem unable to successfully convert their depleting exhaustible resources into other productive assets the survey also offers some welfare based fiscal rules for harnessing resource windfalls in developed and developing economies

heterogeneous information arrivals and return volatility dynamics uncovering the long run in high frequency returns recent empirical evidence suggests that the interdaily volatility clustering for most speculative returns are best characterized by a slowly mean reverting fractionally integrated process meanwhile much shorter lived volatility dynamics are typically observed with high frequency intradaily returns the present article demonstrates that by interpreting the volatility as a mixture of numerous heterogeneous short run information arrivals the observed volatility process may exhibit long run dependence as such the long memory characteristics constitute an intrinsic feature of the return generating process rather than the manifestation of occasional structural shifts these ideas are confirmed by our analysis of a one year time series of fiveminute deutschemark u s dollar exchange rates among the most puzzling issues is the behavior of volatility while the general properties of volatility remain elusive perhaps the most intriguing feature revealed by empirical work on volatility is its long persistence such behavior has sparked a search almost akin to that for the holy grail for the perfect garch model but the underlying question of why such volatility persistence endures remains unanswered we conjecture that the ability to analyze higher frequency data may be particularly useful in pursuing this issue goodhart and o hara 1997 the pronounced volatility clustering is arguably one of the most striking features of financial price series recorded at daily or weekly intervals and a large body of literature seeking to characterize this aspect of speculative returns has emerged over the past decade 1 at the same time convincing theoretical explanations for the underlying sources of long run persistence in volatility remain elusive the recent advent of comprehensive high frequency andersen is from the j l kellogg graduate school of management of northwestern university bollerslev is from the university of virginia and is a research associate at the national bureau of economic research we gratefully acknowledge the financial support provided by a research grant from the institute for quantitative research in finance the q group special thanks are due to olsen and associates for making the intradaily exchange rate quotes and reuter s news tape available we have received valuable comments from wake epps clive w j granger stephen f gray j huston mcculloch as well as seminar participants at the december 1996 triangle econometrics workshop the 1997 afa meetings in new orleans academia sinica the wharton school usc and georgetown and york universities we remain fully responsible for the content 1 see bollerslev chou and kroner 1992 for a survey of this literature using arch type

optimal pricing of non utility generated electric power the importance of an optimal pricing policy for pricing nonutility generated power is pointed out in this paper an optimal pricing policy leads to benefits for all concerned the utility industry and the utility s other customers in this paper it is shown that reliability differentiated real time pricing provides an optimal nonutility generated power pricing policy from a societal welfare point of view firm capacity purchase and hence an optimal price for purchasing firm capacity are an integral part of this pricing policy a case study shows that real time pricing without firm capacity purchase results in improper investment decisions and higher costs for the system as a whole without explicit firm capacity purchase the utility makes greater investment in capacity addition in order to meet its reliability criteria than is socially optimal it is concluded that the nonutility generated power pricing policy presented in this paper and implied by reliability differentiated pricing policy results in social welfare maximizing investment and operation decisions

the elusive curse of oil abstract our goal is to show that contrary to the claims made in several recent papers the effect of a large endowment of oil and other mineral resources on long term economic growth of countries has been on balance positive moreover the claims of a negative effect of oil and mineral wealth on the countries institutions are called into question

volatility spillovers between oil prices and stock sector returns implications for portfolio management abstract in this article we take a recent generalized var garch approach to examine the extent of volatility transmission between oil and stock markets in europe and the united states at the sector level the empirical model is advantageous in that it typically allows simultaneous shock transmission in the conditional returns and volatilities insofar as volatility transmission across oil and stock sector markets is a crucial element for portfolio designs and risk management we also analyze the optimal weights and hedge ratios for oil stock portfolio holdings with respect to the results our findings point to the existence of significant volatility spillover between oil and sector stock returns however the spillover is usually unidirectional from oil markets to stock markets in europe but bidirectional in the united states our back testing procedures finally suggest that taking the cross market volatility spillovers estimated from the var garch models often leads to diversification benefits and hedging effectiveness better than those of commonly used multivariate volatility models such as the ccc garch of bollerslev 1990 the diagonal bekk garch of engle and kroner 1995 and the dcc garch of engle 2002

strategic generation capacity expansion planning with incomplete information to study the competitive behavior among individual generating companies gencos an incomplete information game model is proposed in this paper in which each genco is modeled as an agent each agent makes strategic generation capacity expansion decisions based on its incomplete information on other gencos the formation of this game model falls into a bi level optimization problem the upper level of this problem is the gencos own decision on optimal planning strategies and energy reserve bidding strategies the lower level problem is the iso s market clearing problem that minimizes the cost to supply the load which yields price signals for gencos to calculate their own payoffs a co evolutionary algorithm combined with pattern search is proposed to optimize the search for the nash equilibrium of the competition game with incomplete information the nash equilibrium is obtained if all gencos reach their maximum expected payoff assuming the planning strategies of other gencos remain unchanged the physical withholding of capacity is considered in the energy market and the herfindahl hirschman index is utilized to measure the market concentration the competitive behaviors are analyzed in three policy scenarios based on different market rules for reserve procurement and compensation

intelligent agents for negotiations in market games 2 application for part i see ibid vol 13 no 5 p 1103 8 1998 in competitive markets human decision makers need assistance to determine potential coalitions that they can be part of note that such coalitions are legal provided market power is not monopolized we present an approach for designing specialized intelligent software agents that perform negotiations on behalf of their human counterparts and then suggest market strategies that the human can adopt our negotiation protocol is derived from cooperative game theory however it differs from the game theory literature in requiring virtually no trustworthy information exchange between the potential coalition partners in the part i we presented the negotiation model in this paper we apply it to power markets

cost benefit reflective distribution charging methodology this paper describes the principle and implementation of a new mw mvar miles charging methodology which was developed to reflect three key cost drivers in distribution network development the distance used to support nodal real and reactive power injection withdrawal the degree of support offered by the network assets and the operating condition of the supporting assets in terms of their power factors the inclusion of the latter driver allows the developed charging methodology to reward network users who are contributing to better power factors and better network utilization while penalizing customers who worsen power factors and network utilization as a consequence the charging model is able to provide forward looking incentives for network customers to behave in a manner to better the network condition which will in turn help to reduce the cost of future network development in addition the separation of real and reactive power pricing would give network users clear indications of the cost of their reactive power draw from the network which in turn could help them to evaluate the economics in investing in reactive power compensation devices the proposed charging methodology is demonstrated on a practical eight busbar distribution system with a mixed demand and embedded generation eg this paper results from work undertaken in a project on distribution charging methodologies for western power distribution the views in this paper expressed are not those of western power distribution

modeling greenhouse gas reduction from the australian electricity sector the australian electricity sector is expected to undergo major changes to reduce the current sectoral co2 emission of 190 million tons to 96 million tons by 2050 this paper summarizes two major modeling studies that have been undertaken since 2006 to understand the full set of investment price and financial impact on existing generators especially coal based generators we have used a long term capacity and dispatch optimization model to comprehensively analyze both least cost and market led expansion of the system to accommodate alternative emission reduction targets from a shallow cut to a deep cut the modeling results demonstrate the cost of meeting the target can be over 30 billion in npv terms a mix of clean coal technologies gas and nuclear technologies is expected to displace the existing stock of conventional coal which varies significantly depending on the emission reduction target the analysis also show that mandatory renewable targets or technology standards are inefficient policies in comparison to a market based policy such as the proposed emissions trading scheme

application of games with incomplete information for pricing electricity in deregulated power pools the authors present a game theory approach to the problem of pricing electricity in deregulated marketplaces they assume that an independent operator receives bids by pool participants and defines transactions among participants by looking for the minimum price that satisfies the demand in the pool the competition among pool participants is modeled as a noncooperative game with incomplete information they assume that each pool participant knows its own operation costs but does not know his opponents operation costs the game with incomplete information is transformed into a game with complete but imperfect information and solved using the nash equilibrium idea the approach presented in this paper is geared towards providing support for pricing electricity in deregulated pools

market equilibrium under incomplete and imperfect information in bilateral electricity markets in contrast to the centralized pool model bilateral markets present a decision making situation in which information plays a major role along with the physical and operative constraints of the network we propose a model that includes network constraints for competitive bilateral electricity markets based on an evolutionary bipartite complex network in which the nodes and weighted links represent the players and transactions respectively the strong stable equilibrium of the network is applied to detect possible market equilibria obtained through a dynamic game with incomplete and imperfect information in which the players form an evolutionary network while trying to maximize their own utilities the model is conceptually illustrated with a four bus test system and then applied to the ieee30 test system to analyze the impact of the transmission network and information on the equilibria and market performance

nash equilibrium bidding strategies in a bilateral electricity market this paper examines bidding strategies in a bilateral market in which generating companies submit bids to loads a load accepts electricity delivery from the generator with the lowest bid at its bid price as long as this price is not higher than the load s willingness to pay necessary and sufficient conditions of nash equilibrium ne bidding strategy are derived based on a generic generating cost matrix and the loads willingness to pay vector the study shows that in any ne efficient allocation is achieved furthermore all nash equilibria are revenue equivalent for the generators based on the necessary and sufficient conditions this problem is formulated as an optimal assignment problem network optimization techniques are applied to calculate ne bid prices for the generators

advanced pricing in electrical systems i theory this paper sets forth a comprehensive theory for the real time pricing of electricity that includes selected ancillary services and extends the theory to incorporate constraints on power quality and environment impact that often influence the operation of a power system this paper is part i of a two paper set it sets forth the mathematical development of the extended model for real time pricing the formulation is novel in that it combines the dynamic equations for load frequency control with the static equations of a constrained optimal power flow part ii derives optimal nodal specific real time prices for both real and reactive power the prices derived include additive premia or opportunity costs reflecting the effects of voltage regulation maintenance of generation and transmission reserves regulation of frequency and tie line flows removal and or control of power harmonics and others

climatic fluctuations and the diffusion of agriculture this research examines the climatic origins of the diffusion of neolithic agriculture across countries and archaeological sites the theory suggests that a foraging society s history of climatic shocks shaped the timing of its adoption of farming specifically as long as climatic disturbances did not lead to a collapse of the underlying resource base the rate at which hunter gatherers were climatically propelled to experiment with their habitats determined the accumulation of tacit knowledge complementary to farming consistent with the proposed hypothesis the empirical investigation demonstrates that conditional on biogeographic endowments climatic volatility has a hump shaped effect on the timing of the adoption of agriculture

calculating short run marginal costs of active and reactive power production proper pricing of active and reactive power is an important issue for economic and secure operations of power systems in an open transmission access ota environment this paper presents a flexible formulation for this purpose the proposed formulation identifies an important price component for reactive power which is fundamentally different from those existing in the literature this makes the pricing of reactive power more understandable the proposed approach is efficient for real time application and allows for carrying out active and reactive power pricing simultaneously or independently through the use of the decoupled optimal power flow formulation price signals derived from this approach are quite meaningful from an engineering point of view in addition the proposed approach can be easily extended to evaluate nugs and wheeling transactions the paper includes test results on the 30 and 118 bus ieee standard systems

wheeling rates of reactive power flow under marginal cost pricing wheeling is the transmission of electrical power and reactive power from a seller to a buyer through a transmission network owned by a third party the wheeling rate is an area of intense research in view of increased deregulation this paper uses a wheeling rate based on marginal cost pricing and implemented using a modification of the optimal power flow opf a case study based on the ieee 30 bus system illustrates the magnitudes and ranges that wheeling rates might have in different circumstances special attention is paid to reactive wheeling which cannot be analyzed with a dc model used by previous authors the ratio of wheeling rates between real and reactive flow shows the importance of the latter the paper also discusses the significance of this for the trade off between paying for reactive wheel or investing in compensating plant

using game theory to analyze electric transmission pricing policies in the united states abstract us public policy towards the private electric power industry is moving away from restrictive regulation and towards promotion of competition alternative policies concerning access to and pricing of transmission are now being discussed similar issues may arise in europe as trade barriers fall our purpose is to show how game theory can help illuminate that debate and identify desirable policies game theory models are used to estimate the possible effects of various policies upon productive efficiency and the distribution of gains among sellers transmitters and buyers of power static cooperative models are used to calculate the possible outcomes of short run transmission games long run games in which the amount of transmission capacity is a decisition variable are modeled as dynamic noncooperative stackelberg games one conclusion is that under some conditions price regulation and mandatory access could hurt power buyers by removing incentives for building transmission capacity another conclusion is that under a system of voluntary access and price regulation it may be better to allow wheeling prices to exceed the marginal cost of transport rather than to risk losing the benefits of cooperation

reliability differentiated pricing of spinning reserve this paper derives the spinning reserve pricing policy implied by the reliability differentiated pricing model and illustrates the importance of such a pricing policy the purchase of additional spinning reserve capacity at the prices derived leads to benefits for the customers through reduced real and reactive power prices and improved reliability of the power system and for the power system as a whole through reduced societal costs and less investment in system reinforcements the magnitudes and behavior of the optimal prices for real and reactive spinning reserve are illustrated in two case studies one case study determines reliability differentiated prices of real and reactive power for a sample four area power system with and without spinning reserve purchase and the optimal purchase prices for both real and reactive power spinning reserve capacities the results of this case study show that when reliability differentiated pricing is extended to both real and reactive power reserve it leads to benefits for customers and the power system as a whole a second case study examines the locational dependence of optimal prices for real and reactive reserves on the operating status of equipment in the 24 bus ieee reliability test system it is concluded that even small amounts of reliable reserve capacity purchase from neighboring electric utilities can improve the reliability of the power system and lower expected real and reactive power prices leading to gains in social welfare

a load flow based method for calculating embedded incremental and marginal cost of transmission capacity this paper describes the principles of a load flow based method for allocating the cost of transmission capacity the method estimates the usage of each transmission facility with cost defined on a per facility basis embedded incremental and marginal cost of transmission capacity are defined and compared to each other a discussion of other load flow based methods and their application to marginal cost is included

oil prices and the terms of trade abstract the combination of substantial terms of trade variability and unstable correlation patterns of trade prices with output and trade volumes has led some to suggest a break in the link between trade volumes and prices we find that oil accounts for much of the variation in the terms of trade over the last twenty five years and its quantitative role varies significantly over time and since our dynamic general equilibrium model predicts that the economy responds differently to oil supply shocks than to other shocks changes in their relative importance helps to account for the unstable correlations in the data

game theory approach to use of noncommercial power plants under time of use pricing the authors use the game theory approach for evaluating the impact of the introduction of customer owned noncommercial power plants ncp when time of use pricing is used various results from this analysis are derived some of which are that the conflict between ncp customer and the supplier forces the supplier to reduce the price of ncp customers perception of the situation in which they are involved in plays an important role in this conflict the game model analysis presented provides a detailed quantitative information on electricity prices and on the ways of using ncp

a continuous strategy game for power transactions analysis in competitive electricity markets this article presents a game theory application for analyzing power transactions in a deregulated energy marketplace such as poolco where participants especially generating entities maximize their net profits through optimal bidding strategies i e bidding prices and bidding generations in this article the electricity market for power transactions is modeled as a noncooperative game with complete information where the solution is determined in a continuous strategy domain having recourse to the nash equilibrium idea in order to provide more apprehensible analysis we suggest a new hybrid solution approach employing a two dimensional graphical approach as well as an analytical method finally the proposed approach is demonstrated on a sample power system

transmission congestion management in an electricity market managing transmission congestion in an unbundled electric power system poses a challenge to an independent system operator iso this paper considers an open transmission dispatch environment in which pool and bilateral multilateral dispatches coexist and proceeds to develop a congestion management strategy for this scenario prioritization of electricity transactions and related curtailment strategies are explored and a mechanism for coordination between market participants to achieve additional economic advantages is described

the dutch disease a disease after all many third world oil producers are encountering serious problems in building up a diversified export base while west european oil and gas producers netherlands united kingdom are suffering a decline in their traded goods manufacturing sector induced by real wage pressures it is becoming increasingly clear that high but temporary oil revenues may be somewhat ora mixed blessing the quip of the economist notwithstanding the mechanism behind this unbalance is clear enough part of the oil revenues is spent on non traded goods which leads to a real appreciation i e a rise in the relative price of non traded goods in terms of traded goods this in turn draws resources out of the non oil traded sector into the non traded goods producing sector corden and neary 1982 van wijnbergen 1980 one may say that this is an efficient response to the increase in income from oil production the united kingdom mexico egypt simply should move into oil derived industries and non traded goods and forget about their manufacturing sector until oil reserves are exhausted however many developing countries are hesitant to take this advice after all the post world war ii success stories in economic development involve without exception countries that promoted their traded goods sector aggressively moreover it is a well established stylised fact that technological progress is faster in the traded non sheltered sectors of an economy than in the non traded sector balassa 1964 is an early reference considering the hypothesis that technological progress rather than taking place exogenously with the passage of time is a function of accumulated experience the concern of countries like egypt mexico or indonesia is much easier to understand since solow 1957 and denison 1962 it is known that capital accumulation explain only a small part of economic growth if most of economic growth is caused by learning by doing induced technologica

optimal active reactive power dispatch under competition via bilevel programming this paper proposes an active reactive power dispatch procedure that is expressed via a bilevel optimization problem whose upper and lower level criteria are respectively the minimum opportunity cost and minimum offered price of active power it analyzes the impact of minimizing such criteria on system operation and it investigates the behavior of marginal prices and opportunity costs and their use in mechanisms to compensate generators for power provision the bilevel problem is solved using a version of interior point methods derived for mathematical programs with complementarity constraints results obtained with three test systems are analyzed

a security constrained bid clearing system for the new zealand wholesale electricity market this paper reports upon the mathematical models and implementation of the scheduling pricing and dispatch spd application for the new zealand electricity market nzem spd analyzes bids for energy offers reserve offers and energy demands and recognizes explicitly the effects on bid clearing due to transmission congestion network losses reserve requirements and ramp rate limits advanced lp solution methods are utilized to solve the large scale constrained optimization problem results on a 67 bus test system and the nzem are included

resources innovation and growth in the global economy the relative performance of open economies is analyzed in an endogenous growth model with asymmetric trade a resource rich country trades resource based intermediates for final goods produced by a resource poor economy the effects of an increase in the resource endowment depend on the elasticity of substitution between resources and labor in intermediates production under substitution complementarity the resource boom generates higher lower income lower higher employment in the primary sector and faster slower growth in the resource rich economy in the resource poor economy the shock induces a higher lower relative wage and positive negative growth effects that are exclusively due to trade

the long term impact of transmission pricing transmission pricing has been one of the major issues on the ongoing debate about deregulation and privatization many papers have dealt with the static nature of the tariff using the incremental and the embedded cost approaches however few of them have focused on the dynamic aspects of the tariff and therefore on its impact on the long term expansion planning of both generation and transmission the main target of this paper is to address some interesting topics about the effect of the transmission pricing methods on system cost in this new environment where generation is treated as an open market and transmission as a monopoly some examples with the brazilian power system illustrate the main points shown in this paper

transaction analysis in deregulated power systems using game theory the electric power industry is in transition to a deregulated marketplace for power transactions in this environment all power transactions are made based on price rather than cost a regional power pool is noted as the most straightforward path to a deregulated electricity marketplace however many questions remain unanswered regarding the economics of power pool participation in a deregulated energy marketplace participants are interested in maximizing their own profits regardless of the system wide profits it is perceived that competition will reduce the price of electricity for retail customers however the key issue for participants is related with the price definition to remain competitive in this paper the authors use game theory to simulate the decision making process for defining offered prices in a deregulated environment the outcome of this study may be used by power pool coordinators to discourage unfair coalitions a modified ieee 30 bus power system is used as a deregulated power pool to illustrate the main features of the proposed method

a wavelet analysis of mean and volatility spillovers between oil and brics stock markets this paper investigates the spillover effects of volatility and shocks between oil prices and the brics stock markets using multivariate approach and wavelet analysis at different time horizons hence we combine a multivariate arma garch model and wavelet multiresolution analysis to study this phenomenon a bivariate arma 1 1 garch 1 1 cdcc student t model was joined with modwt filter to capture a broad range of possible spillover effects in mean and variances of level prices at various time horizons generally empirical results provide strong evidence of time varying volatility in all markets under study however our proposed approach shows that oil price and stock market prices are directly affected by their own news and volatilities and indirectly affected by the volatilities of other prices and wavelet scale the results show also that mean and volatility spillover effects was decomposed into many sub spillovers on different time scales according to heterogeneous investors and market participants the practical implications of this study are critical innovative and useful for the local and international investors and also for the portfolio managers they can utilize this study to formulate the optimal oil bricks stock portfolios as well as lead to more accurate predictions of volatility spillovers patterns also in developing their hedging strategies

price risk and hedging strategies in nord pool electricity market evidence with sector indexes abstract electricity markets become more competitive due to their liberalization therefore electricity prices are considerably more volatile compared to other commodity prices as the electricity is an integral part of production and economic growth processes the electricity price may influence the stock market through affecting the real output and consequently the sum of cash flows hence investors are facing electricity price risks and need to protect their benefits this paper investigates the impacts of electricity market variations on the nordic stock market returns using hourly observations of electricity spot prices pairwise in aggregate market index and some sector indexes our sample is divided into three sub periods according to the electricity volatility structure a generalized long memory model is adopted to estimate the conditional mean of the studied time series and the figarch process is used to model the conditional variance thereafter a var c dcc figarch cvar and cvar models are applied to assess electricity market exposure moreover in order to evaluate the optimal portfolio we calculated the optimal portfolio weights the optimal hedge ratios and the hedge effectiveness index of the electricity market commodity in several sectors stock portfolios our results show evidence of long run dependence between electricity market returns and sectoral stock market returns and they indicate that the tail dependence is significant and varies across sectors and over periods finally the optimal weights and hedge ratios for electricity stock portfolio holdings are sensitive to the considered sectors therefore electricity market commodities can be adopted to diversify and hedge against stock market risks

the narrow moving band the dutch disease and the competitive consequences of mrs thatcher notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies abstract this paper presents a model of trade in which comparative advantage instead of being determined by underlying attributes of countries evolves over time through learning by doing in this model arbitrary patterns of specialization once established tend to become entrenched over time the model sheds light on three widely held views that do not make sense in more conventional models first is the view that temporary protection of selected sectors can permanently alter the pattern of comparative advantage in the protecting country s favor second is the view that seemingly favorable developments such as the discovery of exportable natural resources may lead to a permanent loss of other sectors and reduce welfare in the long run third is the possibility that a temporary overvaluation of a currency due to tight money can lead to a permanent loss of competitiveness in some sectors

endogenous growth and property rights over renewable resources abstract we study how different regimes of access rights to renewable natural resources namely open access versus full property rights affect sustainability growth and welfare in the context of modern endogenous growth theory resource exhaustion may occur under both regimes but is more likely to arise under open access moreover under full property rights positive resource rents increase expenditures on manufacturing goods and temporarily accelerate productivity growth but also yield a higher resource price at least in the short to medium run we characterize analytically and quantitatively the model s dynamics to assess the welfare implications of differences in property rights enforcement

a reactive power capacity market using annual auctions this paper presents a new approach to design reactive power capacity markets under this approach annual auctions to procure reactive power capacity are conducted by the system operator two products are defined reactive power generation and absorption capacity which can be supplied by different independent var sources such as generators svcs capacitor banks and shunt reactors reactive power capacity is allocated using an optimization algorithm that matches capacity bids and system reactive power needs for peak and low demand hours the reactive power requirements are calculated taking into account system contingencies and the dynamic performance of the var sources under these situations another key proposal of the paper is the distribution of costs of the reactive power capacity market to the agents responsible for contingencies according to the use of the service by each market participant this remuneration approach provides fair and efficient economic signals to all market participants the applicability of the approach is illustrated with two case studies

booming sector and de industrialisation in a small open economy this paper presents a theoretical analysis of the dutch disease the phenomenon whereby a boom in one traded goods sector squeezes porfitability in other traded goods sectors both by directly bi

resource abundance growth and welfare a schumpeterian perspective abstract this paper takes a new look at the long run implications of resource abundance it develops a schumpeterian model of endogenous growth that incorporates an upstream resource intensive sector and yields an analytical solution for the transition path it then derives conditions under which as the economy s endowment of a natural resource rises i growth accelerates and welfare rises ii growth decelerates but welfare rises nevertheless and iii growth decelerates and welfare falls which of these scenarios prevails depends on the response of the natural resource price to an increase in the resource endowment the price response determines the change in income earned by the owners of the resource the households and thereby the change in their expenditure on manufacturing goods since manufacturing is the economy s innovative sector this income to expenditure effect links resource abundance to the size of the market for manufacturing goods and drives how re source abundance affects incentives to undertake innovative activity

aid and the dutch disease macroeconomic management when everybody loves you abstract countries that undertake serious and sustained programs of stabilization and structural adjustment should expect to attract significant new inflows of capital from donor countries and international institutions while apparently beneficial those flows can work at crosspurpose with other goals of the policy reforms in particular abundant foreign exchange loans can force an appreciation of the real exchange rate often through domestic inflation rather than a nominal appreciation in addition since the government is almost always the recipient of these loans it can crowd out the private sector if it increases its aggregate demand for domestic goods and services if the crowding out is accomplished by tight monetary policy it will fall primarily on private investment rather than consumption this paper shows that both of these problems have surfaced in ghana a country that has become a favorite of donors after demonstrating a serious commitment to policies promoted by the world bank and international monetary fund the paper also suggests modifications in macroeconomic policy that would help lower inflation and boost private investment

wheeling of power under deregulated environment of power system a bibilographical survey the power industry is moving rapidly from regulated conventional setup to a deregulated environment there is an urgent need to keep a track of international experiences and activities taking place in this emerging field this paper gives a bibliographical survey and general backgrounds of research and development in the field of power system wheeling under deregulated environment based on over 170 published articles wheeling in general and the establishment of wheeling rate in particular are subjects of extensive debate today this will be very much useful for all countries especially those developing countries which are moving toward the unbundling of electricity supply industry esi the collected literature have been divided into many section so that new researchers do not face any difficulty for obtaining literature particularly in the area of wheeling of power under deregulated environment

optimal multi area wheeling an important consideration in wheeling is where a transaction involves several parties that is multi area wheeling power from seller to buyer flows through several intermediate utilities each utility represents an individual control area engaged in part of a more complex wheeling transaction individual wheeling rates then have to be computed for each area the question of how much energy should be transported through each path and what wheeling price should be paid is then an issue of importance this is formulated as a nonlinear optimisation program with linear constraints and solved by a gradient projection method the availability of facts capability to implement the optimal wheeling strategy once determined is assumed in this paper

marginal pricing of transmission services a comparative analysis of network cost allocation methods a strict marginal network pricing policy is not able to generate enough revenues to recover the cost of the primary transmission service other related network services are ignored here this cost recovery problem requires the stipulation of a complementary charge which completes the network marginal revenues this paper evaluates numerically and qualitatively three different allocation methods of the complementary charge marginal participation factors mean participation factors and benefit factors the evaluation has been applied to the spanish electrical system model

evaluation of wheeling and nonutility generation nug options using optimal power flows the application of optimal power flow for the evaluation of wheeling and nonutility generation nug related options is presented both wheeling and nug options affect vital attributes such as system security voltage profile losses and var reserves these options put a strain on the existing transmission system and may restrict economic utility dispatching optimal power flows may be used to determine the best control settings to accommodate wheeling or nug options so as to maintain system security while minimizing losses or production cost short term marginal wheeling costs may be derived using optimal power flows case studies involving the northeast utilities and ieee test systems are presented these cases show that optimal power flows can be used effectively to address a broad range of wheeling or nug related planning issues

learning by doing and the dutch disease this paper develops a model of learning by doing and the dutch disease that extends the earlier literature in two ways first it is assumed that both the traded and the non traded sector can contribute to learning second it is assumed that there are learning spillovers between the sectors it is shown that within such a model a foreign exchange gift results in a real exchange rate depreciation in the long run due to a shift in the steady state relative productivity between the traded and the non traded sector in contrast to standard models of the dutch disease production and productivity in both sectors may go up or down the conditions for the different cases are worked out

cost of wheeling methodologies the cost of wheeling and the methodology by which it is computed is a high priority problem throughout the power industry due to the growth in transmission facilities the cost differentials between utility companies and the dramatic growth in nonutility generation capacity this paper contains descriptions and summaries of computational procedures and data requirements of four embedded cost methodologies two long run incremental cost methods and the short run marginal cost method four methodologies are also presented for allocating the wheeling costs among a number of wheels when simultaneously present on a company s system as required for the standard long run incremental cost method

the costs of wheeling and optimal wheeling rates wheeling is the transmission of electrical energy from a buyer to a seller through a transmission network owned by a third party this paper provides a theoretically sound yet practical to implement basis for setting wheeling rates these wheeling rates are based on marginal costs determined by losses and effects of line flow and voltage magnitude constraints adjusted up or down as necessary to account for embedded capital costs i e revenue reconciliation simple numerical examples are provided to illustrate interesting phenomena such as negative wheeling rates which yield positive net revenue comparisons with present day wheeling rates show that major differences exist the wheeling rates of this paper yield a no lose situation for the buying selling and wheeling utilities

optimization based inter utility power purchases effective power transaction decisions can result in significant savings since marginal generation costs of neighboring utilities could be quite different transactions however are coupled with the scheduling of units through system demand and reserve requirements and are confined by many accustomed rules how to make effective transaction decisions is therefore a very difficult problem in this paper an optimization based method for the integrated consideration of power purchase transactions and the scheduling of thermal units is presented based on the augmented lagrangian decomposition and coordination method after the system wide demand and reserve requirements are relaxed by using lagrange multipliers and penalty coefficients the overall problem is decomposed into purchase and thermal subproblems for a purchase subproblem the optimal purchase level for each purchase interval is first determined the subproblem is then efficiently solved by using the dynamic programming approach without discretizing purchase levels thermal subproblems are solved by extending the author s previous method the multipliers and penalty coefficients are then updated at the high level so that system demand and reserve requirements are gradually satisfied over iterations numerical testing results based on modified northeast utility s data show that the algorithm is efficient and significant savings can be obtained

oil prices stock markets and portfolio investment evidence from sector analysis in europe over the last decade this article extends the understanding of oil stock market relationships over the last turbulent decade unlike previous empirical investigations which have largely focused on broad based market indices national and or regional indices we examine short term linkages in the aggregate as well as sector by sector levels in europe using different econometric techniques our main findings suggest that the reactions of stock returns to oil price changes differ greatly depending on the activity sector in the out of sample analysis we show that introducing oil asset into a diversified portfolio of stocks allows to significantly improve its risk return characteristics

decomposition model and interior point methods for optimal spot pricing of electricity in deregulation environments in this paper an integrated optimal spot pricing model is presented first the proposed model includes the detailed derivation of optimal nodal specific real time prices for active and reactive powers and the method to decompose them into different components corresponding to generation loss and many selected ancillary services such as spinning reserve voltage control and security control the features of the proposed model are discussed in relationship to existing pricing models and classical economic dispatch the model is then implemented by modifying existing newton opf methods through interior point algorithms which can effectively avoid go no go gauge i e highly volatile in the calculation of spot prices case studies on 5 bus and ieee 30 bus systems are reported to illustrate the proposed method

reactive power as an ancillary service this paper addresses the problem of reactive power procurement by an independent system operator iso in deregulated electricity markets a reactive bid structure is proposed in the context of a reactive power market based on the reactive power price offers and technical constraints involved in reactive power planning a two tier approach is developed to determine the most beneficial reactive power contracts for the iso the reactive capability of a generator and therefore the opportunity costs in providing reactive power is also included in the model uncertainty in reactive demand and in reactive bids of participating parties is incorporated through monte carlo simulations and the expected reactive power procurement plan for the iso is hence determined the cigre 32 bus network approximately representing the swedish system is used for the studies

feasibility assessment of simultaneous bilateral transactions in a deregulated environment a large number of transmission transactions is expected to take place with the introduction of competition into the electricity industry these transactions need to be evaluated ahead of their scheduling time to check their feasibility with regard to the system conditions at the time of scheduling transmission system operators would have to honor and execute only transactions as far as the system design and system operating conditions permit this paper describes a method for assessing the feasibility of simultaneous bilateral transactions with regard to the system economic dispatch and transmission system constraints transactions are classified into feasible and unfeasible feasible transactions can be accommodated without violating the system economic dispatch and transmission network constraints unfeasible transactions violate transmission network constraints and can not be accommodated fully without altering the system economic dispatch the assessment method provides information on where and how much generation is to be rescheduled in order to accommodate an unfeasible transaction such information will be useful in deciding whether a particular unfeasible transaction is worth serving or not the ieee reliability test system rts is used to illustrate the assessment method

an energy brokerage system with emission trading and allocation of cost savings an energy brokerage system can achieve lower emission levels for interconnected electric utilities in a cost effective way the paper presents a linear programming formulation of an energy brokerage system in an operational planning framework emission trading among utilities is envisaged to achieve emission reduction targets the power and emission buy sell quotes for individual utilities are computed and communicated to a central broker the broker determines the power and emission interchange schedule which maximizes the power system savings for all participating utilities the shapley value criterion is proposed for allocation of cost savings among the utilities this criterion reflects the true marginal contribution of a utility to the aggregate system savings and hence is superior to the existing methods of cost savings allocation

hedging strategies in energy markets the case of electricity retailers as market intermediaries electricity retailers buy electricity from the wholesale market or self generate for re sale on the retail market electricity retailers are uncertain about how much electricity their residential customers will use at any time of the day until they actually turn switches on while demand uncertainty is a common feature of all commodity markets retailers generally rely on storage to manage demand uncertainty on electricity markets retailers are exposed to joint quantity and price risk on an hourly basis given the physical singularity of electricity as a commodity in the literature on electricity markets few articles deal on intra day hedging portfolios to manage joint price and quantity risk whereas electricity markets are hourly markets the contributions of the article are twofold first we define through a var and cvar model optimal portfolios for specific hours 3 am 6 am 12 pm based on electricity market data from 2001 to 2011 for the french market we prove that the optimal hedging strategy differs depending on the cluster hour secondly we demonstrate the significantly superior efficiency of intra day hedging portfolios over daily therefore weekly and yearly portfolios over a decade 2001 2011 our results clearly show that the losses of an optimal daily portfolio are at least nine times higher than the losses of optimal intra day portfolios

congestion influence on bidding strategies in an electricity market much of the research on bidding strategies in an electricity market has focused on idealized situations where participants have limited market power and the transmission system is not constrained yet congestion may act to effectively give a bidder market power and consequently the ability to influence the market clearing price in such a noncompetitive situation the bidding strategies of market participants will change in this paper the electrical power market is modeled as an oligopoly market and the cournot quantity model is applied to the bidding strategy problem the bidding process with congestion management is modeled as a three level optimization problem a statistical methodology is then proposed as a solution for large systems

benefit optimization of centralized and decentralized power systems in a multi utility environment the objective is to examine the theoretical bases for benefit optimization in centralized and decentralized electric power systems in a centralized single control power system cost revenue and profit are used as system performance criteria for benefit optimization and the conditions are compared the results show that conventional cost minimization is not necessarily equivalent to benefit optimization based on other criteria in a decentralized multi utility power system benefit optimization and its allocation are investigated at the unconstrained economic optimum economic optimum with constraints and conditions under which the solution is an economic suboptimum the data from the epri regional systems are used to show practical examples of the benefit allocation with wheeling transactions although some rules are better for society than others there still is not one right answer to determine the rules for benefit optimization

transmission analysis by nash game method this paper describes an open access transmission method for maximizing profits in a power system the proposed method is based on the nash bargaining game for power flow analysis in which each transaction and its optimal price are determined to optimize the interests of individual parties transmission losses are considered by the proposed method and test cases and results are discussed to present the merits of the proposed method

industrialization and environmental externalities in a solow type model in this paper we examine the role played by environmental externalities in shaping the dynamics of an economy with two sectors a farming sector and an industrial one free inter sectoral labor mobility and heterogeneous agents workers farmers and industrial entrepreneurs we find that in the presence of the environmental pressure of the economic activity of the industrial sector the stability properties of the equilibria and their features in terms of environmental preservation welfare outcomes and sectoral allocation of labor are sensitive to the level of carrying capacity we show that an endogenous process of industrialization associated with a reduction in farmers workers welfare can emerge

optimal hedging under biased energy futures markets abstract optimal futures hedging positions for those agents trying to maximize their expected utility will depend on their view about the evolution of the market and on how risk adverse they are the most risk adverse agents will probably decide to full cover their positions but when a futures bias exists hedgers with moderate or low degree of risk aversion can alter their strategy depending on the expected gains in futures markets in our application to the uk natural gas market we find a statistically significant time varying negative futures bias that can be forecasted with confidence as a result of this bias most effective and best performing hedging strategies for moderate risk averse agents are those involving short long hedging in winter summer with a hedging ratio above below the minimum variance hedge ratio these findings are of great interest to practitioners in the uk natural gas markets and the methodology can be extrapolated to other energy markets

solving three player games by the matrix approach with application to an electric power market in models of imperfect competition of deregulated electricity markets the key task is to find the nash equilibrium ne the approaches for finding the ne have had two major bottlenecks computation of mixed strategy equilibrium and treatment of multiplayer games this paper proposes a payoff matrix approach that resolves these bottlenecks the proposed method can efficiently find a mixed strategy equilibrium in a multiplayer game the formulation of the ne condition for a three player game is introduced and a basic computation scheme of solving nonlinear equalities and checking inequalities is proposed in order to relieve the inevitable burden of searching the subspace of payoffs several techniques are adopted in this paper two example application problems arising from electricity markets and involving a cournot and a bertrand model respectively are investigated for verifying the proposed method the proposed method outperforms a publicly available game theory software for the application problems

opf for reactive pricing studies on the ngc system retail transmission services like those being provided by the national grid company ngc in england and wales pose new challenges for the pricing of reactive power supply a reactive power market approach has been proposed by ngc and continues to be evaluated such an approach includes a novel requirement for transmission constrained economic dispatch of var a problem in the security constrained optimal power flow opf class the problem formulations handled by the opf package in use could not accommodate ngc s requirements this paper describes the reactive pricing problem being addressed the modeling requirements and the resulting extensions made to the opf formulation and package it discusses the test results obtained to date on the ngc system

capacity and energy only markets under high renewable penetration this paper presents a multi nodal intertemporal cournot gaming model with transmission constraints and uses it to simulate energy only and capacity energy market designs in the presence of uncertainties stemming from intermittent renewable power generation both market paradigms are compared to a competitive benchmark in order to determine which one performs better in a concentrated market with significant penetration of wind and solar generation as a specific example the model is applied to the south australian zone of the australian national electricity market nem the simulation results for the time interval 2013 2030 show that the capacity energy market has the potential to induce significant new capacity and push prices much closer to the competitive level in contrast to the current energy only market design