the tail index of exchange rate returns in the literature on the empirical distribution of foreign exchange rates there is now consensus that exchange rate yields are fat tailed three problems however persist 1 which class of distribution functions is most appropriate 2 are the parameters of the distribution invariant over subperiods 3 what are the effects of aggregation over time on the distribution in this paper we employ extreme value theory to shed new light on these questions we apply the theoretical results to ems data

heterogeneous information arrivals and return volatility dynamics uncovering the long run in high frequency returns recent empirical evidence suggests that the interdaily volatility clustering for most speculative returns are best characterized by a slowly mean reverting fractionally integrated process meanwhile much shorter lived volatility dynamics are typically observed with high frequency intradaily returns the present article demonstrates that by interpreting the volatility as a mixture of numerous heterogeneous short run information arrivals the observed volatility process may exhibit long run dependence as such the long memory characteristics constitute an intrinsic feature of the return generating process rather than the manifestation of occasional structural shifts these ideas are confirmed by our analysis of a one year time series of fiveminute deutschemark u s dollar exchange rates among the most puzzling issues is the behavior of volatility while the general properties of volatility remain elusive perhaps the most intriguing feature revealed by empirical work on volatility is its long persistence such behavior has sparked a search almost akin to that for the holy grail for the perfect garch model but the underlying question of why such volatility persistence endures remains unanswered we conjecture that the ability to analyze higher frequency data may be particularly useful in pursuing this issue goodhart and o hara 1997 the pronounced volatility clustering is arguably one of the most striking features of financial price series recorded at daily or weekly intervals and a large body of literature seeking to characterize this aspect of speculative returns has emerged over the past decade 1 at the same time convincing theoretical explanations for the underlying sources of long run persistence in volatility remain elusive the recent advent of comprehensive high frequency andersen is from the j l kellogg graduate school of management of northwestern university bollerslev is from the university of virginia and is a research associate at the national bureau of economic research we gratefully acknowledge the financial support provided by a research grant from the institute for quantitative research in finance the q group special thanks are due to olsen and associates for making the intradaily exchange rate quotes and reuter s news tape available we have received valuable comments from wake epps clive w j granger stephen f gray j huston mcculloch as well as seminar participants at the december 1996 triangle econometrics workshop the 1997 afa meetings in new orleans academia sinica the wharton school usc and georgetown and york universities we remain fully responsible for the content 1 see bollerslev chou and kroner 1992 for a survey of this literature using arch type

assessing the short term revenue impacts of residential pv systems on electricity customers retailers and network service providers abstract falling costs and supportive government policies have seen remarkable growth in residential photovoltaic systems in jurisdictions around the world while there have been detailed studies of the financial attractiveness of pv for home owners under different policy and retail market arrangements there has been less consideration of the impacts of such systems on some other key industry participants in this paper we undertake an investigation of the annual short term revenue impacts of pv systems for those households installing them for their electricity retailers and network service providers nsps and for all electricity customers more in general in the australian state of nsw we use actual half hourly pv generation and electricity consumption for 80 households in sydney to estimate the real world impacts of a range of former current and possible future pv policy and retail tariff arrangements including gross and net feed in tariffs fit we found that the short term revenue impacts differ significantly for different commercial arrangements and are highly variable and largely driven by the pv performance and its match with household consumption patterns results highlight that current net metering policies in australia with low net fit rates may provide only moderate revenue incentives to households yet quite adverse revenue impacts on nsps and retailers depending on the level of pv export while nsp short term revenue losses will likely involve increasing electricity tariffs in the longer term losses for retailers may add risks to the profitability of household customers with pv the challenge for policy makers is to facilitate socially valuable pv deployment whilst appropriately managing the impacts on all key electricity industry stakeholders

review on malaysia s national energy developments key policies agencies programmes and international involvements this paper aims to present a review on malaysia s national energy developments by looking at various angles in terms of renewable energy and energy efficiency energy demand and consumption by sectors are presented as well as the fuel mix in electricity generation key energy policies implemented from the incorporation of malaysia s national oil company petronas in 1974 until the national green technology policy 2009 and a future policy will be addressed the roles of key players as well as important agencies in energy development are briefly presented key programmes in energy development such as malaysian industrial energy efficiency improvement project small renewable energy power programme and building energy efficiency programme are discussed as well as successful initiatives from the programmes malaysia s international involvements towards reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and carbon emissions especially montreal protocol and kyoto protocol are highlighted as a conclusion malaysia is aware of its role in formulating its national energy development policies sensitive towards the country s development towards the environment and utilization of energy resources as well as conscientious and responsive towards the call for sustainable development in promoting renewable energy and energy efficiency

embracing new agriculture commodity through integration of java tea as high value herbal crops in solar pv farms abstract integration of agriculture and renewable energy resources rer is currently a hot topic discussed worldwide based on the need for green energy and sustainable economy the decreasing trend of global market value for the traditional agricultural commodity such as rubber and palm oil really affected the gross national income gni and thus the government of malaysia outlined a number of strategic thrusts to boost economic growth herbal products have been given sufficient rooms for extension as the first approved entry point projects epp1 driver of sustainability orthosiphon stamineus also known as java tea is among the five commercialize high value herbal crops hvhc and chosen to be deployed under pv arrays based on its sustainability and potential market value the financial analysis is based on 3 months harvesting cycle with reference to the harvesting coefficience p c and realistic cash flow the internal rate of return irr is valued at 15 74 that benchmarks positive net return for herbal producers the cash functions based on return on investment roi can be achieved after 10 months cycle of production with net present value npv of rm8 863 59 this initiative flows in line with the cleaner production cp concept of efficient usage of natural resources to minimize waste and pollution the concept of agro technology integration is presented with strong financial return for the unused space under pv arrays configured for large scale pv farms

unemployment institutions and reform complementarities re assessing the aggregate evidence for oecd countries there is no or limited consensus on the quantitative impact of institutions on unemployment which has led some to question the case for structural reforms recent studies suggest also that institutions interact with each other and cannot be analysed in isolation in this paper we estimate a standard reduced form model to explore the institutional determinants of unemployment and assess its robustness using a large battery of robustness checks we show that although the impact of each individual policy varies across countries due to policy interactions the simple linear model can be used to draw inferences for countries with an average mix of institutions the model is then extended to encompass systemic interactions in which individual policies interact with the overall institutional framework we find relatively robust evidence of broad reform complementarities

residential energy efficiency and distributed generation natural partners or competition abstract residential energy efficiency and distributed generation seem to be natural partners in our journey towards a more sustainable energy future a growing range of energy efficient consumer technologies and extraordinary declines in photovoltaics system prices has seen household electricity demand fall whilst a growing proportion of the remaining load is provided by household self generation australia is a particularly interesting example of these developments with around 15 of households now possessing a pv system while per capita household demand has also fallen markedly however existing retail electricity tariffs and regulatory arrangements can create mixed incentives for households contemplating both pv and energy efficiency options and for their network service providers this is certainly the case in australia with net metering arrangements that value self consumption of pv far more than pv exports to the grid there are also complex benefits for the electricity network created by these household energy resources that can be significant in this paper we use real household load and pv data from sydney households to model the potential implications of existing electricity tariff arrangements on the financial attractiveness of pv and energy efficiency we model these options separately and in combination for both households implementing these options and their network service providers our results highlight how inappropriate tariffs may well adversely impact on the value that the combination of energy efficiency and pv offers not only to households but also to their network service providers and suggest ways that such impacts might be ameliorated by acknowledging the benefits that these resources can offer to the electricity network

renewable energy support mechanisms in the gulf cooperation council states analyzing the feasibility of feed in tariffs and auction mechanisms renewable energy will be a crucial ingredient in the transition to a more sustainable future the renewable energy sector requires a variety of financial support mechanisms in order to further consolidate and expand currently the most prominent renewable energy support mechanisms are feed in tariffs and renewable energy auctions although these mechanisms have been used and analyzed extensively in western countries and more recently economies in transition they have rarely been examined in the arab gulf region yet particularly the gulf cooperation council gcc states have undertaken important steps towards renewable energy adoption which could be greatly facilitated with the use of financial support mechanisms this paper analyzes the feasibility of feed in tariffs and renewable energy auctions adoption in gcc based on an extensive meta analysis of the literature on these two mechanisms in both developed and developing countries the paper identifies a set of conditions necessary for success and evaluates the presence of favorable these conditions in the gcc context our findings reveal that while conditions that would ensure political feasibility are largely absent for both types of mechanisms auctions could be a more successful strategy at the moment

tail behaviour of the euro this paper empirically analyses risk in the euro relative to other currencies comparisons are made between a subperiod encompassing the final transitional stage to full monetary union with a subperiod prior to this stability in the face of speculative attack is examined using extreme value theory to obtain estimates of tail exchange rate changes the findings are encouraging the euro s common risk measures do not deviate substantially from other currencies also the euro is stable in the face of speculative pressure for example the findings consistently show the euro being less risky than the yen and having similar inherent risk to the deutsche mark the currency that it is essentially replacing

the statistical distribution of exchange rates empirical evidence and economic implications the abundant evidence that changes in exchange rates have distributions with fatter tails than the normal distribution has led researchers to consider non normal distributions including the student the stable paretian and mixtures of distributions this paper compares the empirical fits of three non normal candidates and the normal distribution for daily changes in the logarithms of exchange rates using maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters and chi square goodness of fit tests the student and mixture of two normals provide the best fits but there is evidence that the distribution parameters may vary over time

feed in tariff outlook in malaysia this paper aims to present the feed in tariff fit outlook in malaysia which is in the process of being enacted through a renewable energy re policy by the government of malaysia gom a brief in policies leading towards the re policy and the potential of each re sources under fit mechanism have been discussed the successful utilisation of re source in electricity generation and the fit implementation globally are positive indicators to implement fit in malaysia potentials of fit on biomass biogas and solid waste energy are currently very promising in malaysia but it is solar energy which is predicted to be the main re of the future surpassing all other res

okun s law across time and frequencies abstract we present the first assessment of u s okun s law across time and frequencies we use a set of continuous wavelet tools that allows for estimating okun s coefficient and the lead lag of output over unemployment at each moment and for each cyclical frequency we find similar results for the gaps and the first differences specifications at business cycles frequencies but not at lower frequencies okun s coefficient has increased in absolute value since the mid 1960s except in 1985 1995 and is not particularly sensitive to recessions the lead of output varies considerably over time and also at different frequencies we observe especially with the gaps specification that there are at least two cyclical processes relevant for the okun s relationship one at the business cycle and another at lower frequencies methods that do not take this into account are bound to mix the information embedded in both cycles

publics knowledge attitudes and behavioral toward the use of solar energy in yemen power sector abstract this paper presents the information of the public s views on the solar energy use in yemen it examines the public knowledge of attitudes and behavioral intentions that include the variables willingness to pay willingness to change and willingness to invest and then compare them a personal interview with 348 urban household and 258 rural household was performed the descriptive statistics chi square for independence odds ratios mann whitney and kruskal wallis tests were the statistical tools employed in the analysis the results showed that the citizens in both areas have a moderate level of knowledge about renewable energy resources the benefits and drawbacks of solar energy use in the power sector and the solar power technologies despite that they have highly positive attitudes towards the use of renewable energy particularly solar energy and its technologies they also accept to engage in the renewable energy activities which aim to improve the quality of the electrical service provided in the country the findings also indicate 66 55 7 and 78 4 of urban citizens are willing to pay to change and to invest compared to 70 55 4 and 75 6 of rural citizens the place of residence factor affected significantly the citizens knowledge level about renewable energy wind biomass and geothermal energy renewable energy resources the drawbacks of solar energy use in the power sector and the solar power technologies it also affected significantly the citizens attitudes towards the use of solar power technologies at home the implications for the policymakers are that elevating the knowledge and awareness of the citizens by formal and informal education and enacting effective supportive policies assists in encouraging the citizens to use renewable energies in their daily lives would lead to achieve the country s renewable energy targets for 2025

testing the martingale hypothesis in deutsche mark futures with models specifying the form of heteroscedasticity summary we examine the form of heteroscedasticity in deutsche mark futures price data and compare different specifications of the particular way that the variance is changing over time the martingale hypothesis is tested with daily and weekly rates of change of futures prices for the deutsche mark and some evidence is found against this hypothesis in analyses of daily data from 1981 to 1985 this rejection of the martingale hypothesis may be attributed to trading day effects in foreign currency prices and the resulting day of the week patterns in futures prices when the martingale hypothesis is tested with weekly data the null hypothesis is retained

growth unemployment and labour market institutions evidence from a cross section of eu regions the responsiveness of unemployment to growth is an issue of ongoing political and academic interest economic growth is supposed to be the key to increase labour demand and reduce unemployment departing from okun s law most research on the unemployment intensity of growth has focused on national disparities and the role of labour market institutions empirical evidence at the regional level is scarce we investigate differences in regional labour market responsiveness and their potential determinants for a cross section of european regions the data set covers the nuts 2 regions in the eu15 for the period 1980 to 2002 following a spatial modelling approach interaction among neighbouring labour markets is taken into account our findings point to substantial differences in labour market effects of output growth among european countries and regions both national labour market institutions and regional characteristics such as structural change explain a significant part of these disparities

the role of shocks and institutions in the rise of european unemployment the aggregate evidence two key facts about european unemployment must be explained the rise in unemployment since the 1960s and the heterogeneity of individual country experiences while adverse shocks can potentially explain much of the rise in unemployment there is insufficient heterogeneity in these shocks to explain cross country differences alternatively while explanations focusing on labour market institutions explain current heterogeneity well many of these institutions pre date the rise in unemployment based on a panel of institutions and shocks for 20 oecd nations since 1960 we find that the interaction between shocks and institutions is crucial to explaining both stylised facts

extremal analysis of currency crises in taiwan we employ extreme value theory to identify currency crises in taiwan the new approach is able to identify severe currency crises and at the same time avoid the crisis misclassification problem of markov switching models signal accounting indicates that currency crises in taiwan are preceded by rapid expansion of domestic credit and other monetary aggregates implying that financial excesses stressed by the third generation crisis model are the main causes of these currency crises

estimating the density tail index for financial time series the tail index of a density has been widely used as an indicator of the probability of getting a large deviation in a random variable most of the theory underlying popular estimators of it assume that the data are independently and identically distributed i i d however many recent applications of the estimator have been to financial data and such data tend to exhibit long range dependence we show via monte carlo simulations that conventional measures of the precision of the estimator which are based on the i i d assumption are greatly exaggerated when such dependent data are used this conclusion also has implications for estimates of the likelihood of getting some extreme values and we illustrate the changed conclusions one would get using equity return data

prudent margin levels in the finnish stock index futures market futures market officials are confronted with the difficult task of setting appropriate margin levels that must balance the costs of trader default and the benefits of increased market liquidity one way to guard against default is prudent margin setting practices designed to protect futures positions from extreme price movements the objective of this research is to extrapolate the probabilities of encountering extreme price movements by applying statistical extreme value theory to the finnish stock index futures market the extreme value technique is found to be appropriate since it generates theoretical margin violation probabilities that closely follow the empirical probability distribution the extrapolated results provide decision makers information on extreme events that have not yet occurred

solar photovoltaic in malaysia the way forward abstract this paper examines solar photovoltaic pv in malaysia first it analyzes the current energy demand in malaysia and discusses some of the national policies and the installations of solar pv in urban and rural areas in the country next the general feed in tariff fit scheme is explained indicating its potential as one of the investment options for malaysians finally the loan financing option for solar pv is presented providing examples that have been implemented in other countries as well as explaining the green technology financing scheme gtfs for companies and the proposed soft loan scheme for individual households in malaysia it also analyses the impact of the proposed interest rate to household consumers in malaysia in terms of total profit net present value and internal rate of return it is found that the fit scheme could potentially help in increasing renewable energy penetration particularly for solar pv to provide upfront capital for solar pv installation it is shown that the gtfs is a good financial source for companies while for individual home owners a soft loan facility from banking institutions is a feasible source if the interest rate is 5 or less

differences between foreign exchange rate regimes the view from the tails abstract in the literature on the empirical unconditional distribution of foreign exchange rate returns there is indication that the type of distribution function is related to the form of exchange rate regime the analysis has been hampered by the nonnestedness of alternative distribution models the paper investigates the issue by means of extremal analysis which allows for a unified treatment in particular we try to sort out whether apparent distributional differences are due to differences in techniques or in regimes jel f31 f33

an evaluation of the installation of solar photovoltaic in residential houses in malaysia past present and future abstract this paper examines solar energy development in malaysia particularly in relation to the installation of solar photovoltaic pv in residential houses it analyzes the past activities related to solar energy in malaysia in terms of research and developments r ds the implementations used as well as the national policies for the past 20 years which have pushed the installation of pv in the country the feed in tariff fit scheme is discussed showing comparative cost benefit analysis between the pv installation in houses in the united kingdom uk and malaysia and with other investment schemes available in malaysia to investigate the awareness of renewable energy policies and incentives a preliminary survey of the public opinion in malaysia has been carried out and an evaluation of public willingness to invest in the fit scheme by installing the pv on their houses is presented the cost benefit analysis shows that the proposed fit programme is capable of generating good return on investment as compared to the one in the uk but the return is lower than other investment tools the survey suggests that most malaysians are unaware of the government s incentives and policies towards renewable energies and are not willing to invest in the fit scheme

mixed diffusion jump process modeling of exchange rate movements this study demonstrates that the mixed diffusion jump process is superior to the stable laws or a mixture of normals as a model of exchange rate changes for the british pound french franc and the we st german mark relative to the united states dollar the parameter value s for the mixed diffusion jump process are dependent on the monetary policy regime in force in the united states with the estimates for the franc and mark being intertemporally similar but different from the pound copyright 1988 by mit press

modeling heteroscedasticity in daily foreign exchange rates this article estimates autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic arch and generalized arch garch models for five foreign currencies using 10 years of daily data a variety of arch and garch specifications a number of nonnormal error densities and a comprehensive set of diagnostic checks it finds that arch and garch models can usually remove all heteroscedasticity in price changes in all five currencies goodness of fit diagnostics indicate that exponential garch with certain nonnormal distributions fits the canadian dollar extremely well and the swiss franc and the deutsche mark reasonably well only one nonnormal distribution fits the japanese yen reasonably well none fit the british pound

product market reforms labour market institutions and unemployment we analyze the impact of product market competition on unemployment and wages and how this depends on labour market institutions we use differential changes in regulations across oecd countries over the 1980s and 1990s to identify the effects of competition we find that increased product market competition reduces unemployment and that it does so more in countries with labour market institutions that increase worker bargaining power the theoretical intuition is that both firms with market power and unions with bargaining power are constrained in their behaviour by the elasticity of demand in the product market we also find that the effect of increased competition on real wages is beneficial to workers but less so when they have high bargaining power intuitively real wages increase through a drop in the general price level but workers with bargaining power lose out somewhat from a reduction in the rents that they had previously captured

the probability distribution of foreign exchange price changes tests of candidate processes this study investigates empirically candidate processes for characterizing foreign exchange price changes measured over limited horizons extant empirical studies find distributions of exchange returns too long tailed and leptokurtic to satisfy normality four processes are investigated here because of their potential to model o bserved discontinuities in exchange rates and nonstationary sample moments as well as their economic appeal the results favor a mixed jump model for all six major trading currencies tested copyright 1988 by mit press

distribution properties of latin american black market exchange rates abstract this paper conducts a statistical analysis of the distribution properties of black market exchange rate changes for 12 latin american currencies the infinite variance stable law hypothesis is tested using a regression type technique to estimate the parameters of the stable paretian distribution strong evidence is found supporting this hypothesis a separate analysis of extreme observations using a robust statistical procedure further supports these findings

fixed versus flexible exchange rates and measurement of exchange rate instability comment this paper comments on brodsky 1984 in which he refers to my november 1981 article the paper reiterates the point that the standard deviation cannot be used to draw statistical inferences when the underlying distribution is non normal stable paretian in such a case both the scale and characteristic exponent have to be considered

the growth of temporary services work the temporary help services industry which provides client firms with workers on an as needed basis has expanded at a phenomenal rate over the last 20 years since 1972 the industry s employment has grown at an annual rate of over 11 percent and its share of total u s employment has risen from under 0 3 percent in 1972 to more than 1 8 percent in 1995 the growth of the temporary services industry has fueled controversy some analysts fear that temporary workers may become locked into a labor market underclass with low wages no benefits negligible job security little training and no possibility for advancement others challenge such claims and point to efficiencies created by temporary employment relationships this article will examine the growth of the temporary services industry and discuss the quality of temporary services jobs how such jobs fit into workers careers and some of the forces that may be driving the growth of temporary services work

revisiting the okun relationship our article revisits the okun relationship between observed unemployment rates and output gaps we include in the relationship the effect of labour market institutions as well as age and gender effects our empirical analysis is based on 20 oecd countries over the period 1985 2013 we find that the share of temporary workers which includes a high and rising share of young workers played a crucial role in explaining changes in the okun coefficient the impact of the output gap on the unemployment rate over time the okun coefficient is not only different for young prime age and older workers but also it decreases with age from a policy perspective it follows that an increase in economic growth will not only have the desired outcome of reducing the overall unemployment rate but it will also have the distributional effect of lowering youth unemployment

testing okun s law theoretical and empirical considerations using fractional integration abstractfull employment remains at the center of any economic policy following okun s conclusion regarding the trade off relation between unemployment and real gross national product growth new s

how the european central bank decided its early monetary policy the main goal of this paper is to detect the mechanisms that should rationally stimulate the decision making policies of the european central bank ecb this is carried out under the framework of theoretical principles of interest rate rules firstly we deduce a set of logically advisable guidelines for the strategy actually developed by this central bank then we contrast a wide set of hypotheses with reference to those variables the ecb takes into account on deciding its monetary policy with a flexible treatment regarding the number of months of advance or delay in the explanatory variables the results lead us to the conclusion that the ecb besides adopting a smooth strategy especially bears in mind the expected core inflation rate with a reaction coefficient adjusted to that initially proposed by taylor the economic growth rate though it has a significant positive coefficient matters relatively little and is backward looking finally we evaluate up to what point the behaviour of the ecb is a

statistical distributions and the identification of currency crises abstract we use extreme value theory to identify periods of currency crisis for a broad cross section of asian european and latin american countries we argue that our methodology improves upon the more conventional methodology for defining currency crises because fewer parametric assumptions need to be satisfied we compare the incidence of currency crises using the conventional method with the incidence obtained using our method we conclude that identifying currency crises using extreme value theory is a good alternative to the conventional method

robust tests of forward exchange market efficiency with empirical evidence from the 1920s summary this paper provides a robust statistical approach to testing the unbiasedness hypothesis in forward exchange market efficiency studies the methods we use allow us to work explicitly with levels rather than differenced data they are statistically robust to data distributions with heavy tails and they can be applied to data sets where the frequency of observation and the futures maturity do not coincide in addition our methods allow for stochastic trend non stationarity and general forms of serial dependence the methods are applied to daily data of spot exchange rates and forward exchange rates during the 1920s which marked the first episode of a broadly general floating exchange rate system the tail behaviour of the data is analysed using an adaptive data based method for estimating the tail slope of the density the results confirm the need for the use of robust regression methods we find cointegration between the forward rate and spot rate for the four currencies we consider the belgian and french francs the italian lira and the us dollar all measured against the british pound we find support for a stationary risk premium in the case of the belgian franc the italian lira and the us dollar and we find support for the simple market efficiency hypothesis where the forward rate is an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate and there is a zero mean risk premium in the case of the us dollar

margin exceedences for european stock index futures using extreme value theory abstract futures exchanges require a margin requirement that ensures their competitiveness and protects against default risk this paper applies extreme value theory in computing unconditional optimal margin levels for a selection of stock index futures traded on european exchanges the theoretical framework focuses explicitly on tail returns thereby properly accounting for large levels of risk in measuring prudent margin levels the paper finds that common margin requirements are sufficient for each contract with the exception of the norwegian obx index in providing equitable costs for traders in addition the paper shows the underestimation bias in margin levels that are calculated assuming normality differing margin requirements reflect the unconditional and conditional trading environments