short run strategies for attracting foreign direct investment this paper empirically investigates the effectiveness and feasibility of two fdi policies fiscal incentives and deregulation aimed at improving the attractiveness of a country in the short run using disaggregated data on sales by us mnes foreign affiliates in 43 developed and developing countries over the 1982 94 period results show that the provision of fiscal incentives or the deregulation of the labour market would exert a positive impact on total fdi given the drawbacks frequently associated with the use of incentive packages economy wide policies which ease firing procedures and reduce severance payments would certainly be the best policy option this paper also highlights the different aggregation and omitted variable biases that have affected results of previous studies and provides some support to recent theoretical models of fdi by showing that third country effects and spatial interdependence influence respectively the location of export platform fdi and vertical fdi

pressure groups and public expenditures the flypaper effect reconsidered a model of government budgeting is developed in which lobbying by interest groups can divert the allocation of funds away from the one preferred by the median voter the model is applied to state and local governments to show that the flypaper effect the tendency for lump sum grants to increase public expenditures by more than an equivalent increase in the community s pretax income can be explained without the customary assumption of voter fiscal illusion furthermore the model predicts variation in the extent of the flypaper effect among expenditure categories as found in previous empirical studies

fiscal structures and economic growth international evidence i introduction a large and growing body of literature searches for the determinants of economic growth employing cross country regression analysis e g kormendi and meguire 1985 grier and tullock 1989 barro 1990 1991 1992 romer 1989 1990 levine 1991 and levine and renelt 1992 1 the cross country regression approach implicitly assumes that the growth process possesses similar structural properties across the countries in the sample structural differences be they political economic social or other between countries therefore do not condition the growth process or if they do then the effects are randomly distributed with zero mean if structural differences between countries do matter significantly and non randomly in the growth process then the existing cross country research is potentially flawed attempts are sometimes made to control for such differences by including dummy variables for different regions of the world e g dummy variables for african latin american and other groups of countries within the literature on the determinants of economic growth some papers e g landau 1983 1985 1986 kormendi and meguire 1985 ram 1986 koester and kormendi 1989 barth keleher and russek 1990 easterly and rebelo 1993 and fischer 1993 consider the effects if any of government expenditure and revenue on economic growth overall the findings of these studies paint a mixed picture the relationship between growth and government is sometimes significant and positive sometimes significant and negative and sometimes not significant although these studies consider many different fiscal variables they do not as a rule examine the effects of these fiscal variables in a systematic way that controls for the mode of financing they generally overlook for example how an increase in government consumption expenditure is financed is it with higher taxes and which taxes or is it with lower spending and which spending finally is it with a larger deficit controlling for these factors may lead to different findings about the effect of an increase in government consumption expenditure on economic growth borrowing from some work on the effect of fiscal structure on national economic growth within the united states in helms 1985 mofidi and stone 1990 and miller and russek 1993 we introduce the government budget constraint into the regression equations that examine the determinants of economic growth as a result we directly address the three financing questions raised in the previous paragraph in this framework we consider the growth process using pooled times series cross section data and comparing the results from fixed and random effects econometric techniques 2 these techniques attempt to accommodate structural differences between countries and across time we also compare the performance of the more standard ordinary least squares regression approach with that of the fixed and random effect models ii an overview of international fiscal structures before presenting our model and statistical findings a brief overview of the growth and fiscal characteristics of the countries in our sample provides some additional information for those not familiar with the data which otherwise would not be revealed by our analysis 3 this information can contribute in a limited way to the debate about the effects of government on economic growth although it is not a substitute for modeling the growth process for the sample as a whole the growth rate of real per capita gross domestic product gdp averaged 1 35 per year during 1975 to 1984 with a coefficient of variation of 3 52 by comparison the average growth rate in the united states was 1 45 the five fastest growth countries were botswana 6 72 indonesia 4 19 korea 6 32 sri lanka 3 20 and thailand 4 31 the five slowest growth countries were el salvador 1

does corruption cause encumbered business regulations an iv approach in this research we attempt to understand the effects of corruption on business regulations measured by number of procedures time and costs involved in satisfying governmental requisites using two stage least squares 2sls methods we lessen the problems associated with endogeneity and uncovered the existence of a robust positive statistically significant and quantitatively large direction channel from corruption to encumbered business regulations these results suggest the need to deter corruption in order to improve business regulations the quest to reduce corruption worldwide acquires new relevancy given the findings of djankov et al 2006 that countries with simple and transparent regulations grow faster

on the relationship between corruption and migration empirical evidence from a gravity model of migration this paper shows the relationship between corruption and migration in particular countries with much corruption are shown to encourage emigration and discourage immigration because they provide worse and unpredictable economic conditions more insecurity and a lower quality of life this hypothesis is confirmed empirically with a cross sectional dataset with bilateral migration data covering 230 countries well known implications of the gravity model are confirmed here larger populations a common language and a common border increase migration while distance between two countries decreases migration furthermore education gdp per capita inflation in the destination country as well as corruption and education in the origin country can robustly explain migration corruption thus appears to be a push factor of migration

the hidden transformation the changing role of the state after the collapse of communism in central and eastern europe this article reviews the state s role in the transition economies of central and eastern europe among the countries poland is perceived as the leader because it was the first economy to emerge from the decline following the transition as well the only eu member state to survive the crisis without a recession this success is often attributed to the high quality of government however we show that this popular perception is false and that state malfunctions on numerous fronts may soon impede polish growth prospects in poland the only bright spot is the quality of the financial supervision which should serve as a role model for other countries we attribute the malfunctions to the eu accession period that resulted in an unchecked growth of the government and contributed to the weakening of political and legal institutions copyright 2011 oxford university press

the illusion of fiscal illusion unsticking the flypaper effect recognizing that it is difficult to prove a negative this paper marshals evidence in support of the hypothesis that the widely documented flypaper effect of federal grants to state and local governments is purely a statistical artifact a review of previous studies and a monte carlo investigation suggest that the use of an inappropriate functional form may generate an illusory flypaper effect a local expenditure equation is then estimated in alternative specifications with ten years of state level data empirical results confirm the sensitivity of the flypaper effect to specification and tests of fit unambiguously favor one functional form that specification yields no statistical evidence of a flypaper effect

money supply announcements and interest rates another view in this paper i use a new approach to analyze the impact of money supply announcements on the bond market before 1980 the only available work on this subject consisted of a few unpublished papers by conrad 1978 sivesind 1978 and urich 1979 1 more recently published papers by grossman 1981 and urich and wachtel 1981 have appeared roley 1982 extends the grossman study to incorporate data after the federal reserve policy statement of october 6 1979 both grossman and urich and wachtel are primarily concerned with the question of money market efficiency using survey data made available by money market services of san francisco and data on treasury bill yields each finds that the market responds quickly to unanticipated changes in the money supply but that anticipated changes have no effect on interest rates in addition grossman finds that when he adds other variables such as past changes in the money

financial contracting under extreme uncertainty an analysis of brazilian corporate debentures abstract economic volatility high transaction costs and fragile institutions hinder financial contracting in emerging markets these conditions characterize the economy of brazil yet a nascent corporate bond market thrives i analyze 50 brazilian indenture agreements and find that sample debentures are characterized by i features that mitigate inflation risk for investors ii contingent maturity mechanisms that provide periodic opportunities for exit or renegotiation iii a paucity of covenants that restrict the debtor s investment financing and dividend decisions and iv self enforcement mechanisms that avoid reliance on inefficient institutions analysis of these features enhances our understanding of contracting in emerging economies

environmental policy public goods and the marginal cost of public funds if private goods are perfect substitutes for public goods and environmental quality greener preferences reduce employment raise abatement and improve environmental quality if the elasticity of substitution between private goods and leisure exceeds one the tax rate increases thereby reducing private consumption however if labor supply bends backwards private utility rises while the tax rate and public consumption fall with imperfect substitution between private and public consumption greener policies boost labor supply if the substitution elasticity between private and public consumption and the elasticity of the effectiveness of public abatement are small and the labor supply curve bends backwards copyright 1994 by royal economic society

endogenous federal grants and crowd out of state government spending theory and evidence from the federal highway aid program contrary to simple theoretical predictions existing evidence suggests that federal grants do not crowd out state government spending a legislative bargaining model with endogenous grants documents a positive correlation between grant receipts and preferences for public goods this correlation has likely biased existing work against measuring crowd out to correct for such endogeneity the model motivates instruments based on the political power of state congressional delegations exploiting this exogenous variation in grants the instrumental variables estimator reports crowd out that is statistically and economically significant this endogeneity may explain the flypaper effect a nonequivalence between grant receipts and private income jel d70 h40 h77

regime changes in international real interest rates are they a monetary phenomenon in this paper we use the bai and perron 1998 2001 2003 methodology to test for multiple structural breaks in the mean real interest rate for 13 industrialized countries we find extensive evidence of structural breaks in the mean real interest rate for all 13 countries in an attempt to explain the breaks in international real interest rates we also test for multiple structural breaks in the mean inflation rate for the 13 countries once again we find extensive evidence of structural breaks in the mean inflation rate for all of the countries interestingly the breaks in inflation rates and real interest rates often coincide with increases decreases in the mean inflation rate as we move from one regime to the next typically associated with decreases increases in the mean real interest rate

active labour market policies and the efficiency of the european social fund in spanish regions abstractactive labour market policies and the efficiency of the european social fund in spanish regions regional studies this paper estimates the determinants of public expenditure on active labour market policies almps at the regional level using panel data from a sample of the 17 spanish regions 1989 2010 the estimations take into account endogeneity dynamics and spatial dependence among regions estimations outcome is interpreted with the help of a simple theoretical model of intergovernmental grants results reveal that the european social fund is not effective in its aim of promoting almp expenditure and show that rent seeking when regions compete to attract funds from a common pool provokes the opposite effect which is exacerbated in the presence of imitation

the flypaper effect under different institutional contexts the colombian case an analysis of the flypapereffect under different institutionalcontexts is carried out for colombia where during the decentralizationprocess different sub national fiscalstructures with different degrees ofautonomy to manage transfers expenditures taxes and debt havecoexisted the analysis is carried outby using panel data models andalternative functional forms theresults show that the flypaper effectis observed when sub national entitiesare highly dependent onintergovernmental transfers ananalysis of asymmetries in response totransfers shows that sub nationalauthorities try to cover the reductionin transfers when the percentage oftransfers into the total currentrevenue is high

product market competition and gender discrimination award winning work by the call for competition in the markets a partnership between the office for strategy and studies of the ministry of economy gee and the associacao mutualista montepio

can futures market data be used to understand the behavior of real interest rates this paper examines whether futures market data can be used to understand the behavior of real interest rates several ways of examining the data indicate that futures market data are not particularly informative about real interest rates not only does this evidence cast some doubt on results in previous research that make use of futures market data to draw inferences about real interest rates but it also indicates that future research on real interest rates may need to turn to a different line of attack understanding the behavior of real interest rates is a central issue in financial economics in previous research on this topic several approaches have been used to measure real interest rates in one approach real interest rates have been calculated by subtracting survey data on inflation expectations such as the livingston data from nominal interest rates the problem with survey based measures of real interest rates is that they are only as good as the survey measure of inflation expectations and there may be little incentive for the survey respondents to answer accurately an even more telling criticism of survey based measures often ignored in the literature is that the behavior of market expectations in driven by economic agents ai the margin who are eliminating unexploited profit opportunities market expectations are unlikely therefore to be well measured by the average expectations of survey respondents 2 because of doubts about survey based measures of real interest rates other

government spending and budget deficits in the industrial economies fiscal policy nouriel roubini and jeffrey sachs this paper examines the evolution of the size of government and of budget deficits in oecd economies we highlight the rapid increase in government spending in the 1970s the sharp rise in budget deficits and public debt after 1973 and the reversal in these trends in the 1980s the increase in the size of government was associated in part with the slowdown in growth after 1973 but also reflected gradual adjustment of the ratio of spending to output towards a long run target which depends on political and institutional characteristics of the economy the political orientation of the government the degree of wage indexation and the degree of stability of the political system such factors also explain the size of budget deficits when faced with an adverse shock subsequent deficit reduction requires a measure of political consensus we note that such consensus is hard to achieve in multi party coalitions in consequence countries with such a political structure tended in consequence countries with such a political structure tended toin consequence countries with such a political structure tended to experience much more rapid increases in their debt gnp ratios

the flypaper effect what happens to a state s spending when it receives an unconditional grant from the federal government the standard theoretical analysis predicts that the increase in spending will be the same as that generated by an equivalent increase in local incomes or roughly 5 10 percent for most states in contrast numerous empirical analyses have found that spending increases by much more with some estimates near 100 percent this result is known as the flypaper effect since the money appears to stick where it hits the authors review this evidence as well as other studies that find similar behavior in firms

is inflation persistence different in reality this study examines the inflation persistence using both online and official price indexes in argentina brazil china japan germany south africa the uk and the us using fractional integration technique the main results suggest that the degree of persistence estimated by the long memory parameter is smaller when using online price indexes believed to be a more realistic measure of inflation mainly in the cases of argentina brazil china and the uk monetary policy implications are discussed

technology adoption and the investment climate survey data for 7 000 firms in 28 countries in eastern europe and central asia are used to examine the correlates of technology adoption proxied by iso certification and web use complementary inputs such as skilled labor managerial capacity research and development finance and good infrastructure are shown to be important correlates of technology adoption the link between market incentives and technology adoption is more nuanced while stronger consumer pressure is significantly associated with technology adoption competitor pressure is not suggesting that in developing economies where many input markets are imperfect it is primarily firms with rents that are able to adopt new technology foreign owned firms exhibit significantly better technology adoption outcomes but privatized firms with domestic owners do not

nominal interest rates as indicators of inflation expectations forward interest rates have become popular indicators of inflation expectations theusefulness of this indicator depends on the relative volatilty and the correlation of inflation expectations and expected real interest rates this paper studies u s and u k data using a range of different tools and data sets the forward rate rule perfoms reasonably well in spite of significant movements in the expected real interest rate the reason is that the noise that movements in the expected real interest rate add to the inflation expectations is balanced by a tendency for expected real interest rates and inflation expectations to move in opposite directions

government spending and the optimal rates of consumption and capital accumulation this paper investigates the effects of a temporary change in government expendit ure on private consumption and investment the model employed is one of a closed economy populated by infinitely lived utility maximizing individuals the analysis focuses on the implications of alternative assumptions concerning the relationship between public and private c onsumption in the household s utility function a temporary increase in government expenditure is found to reduce investment if public and private goods are edgeworth complements or independent however if they are substitutes there exists the possibility of an increase in investment

regulation and growth why some countries grow faster than others is one of the most important questions in economics solving this puzzle has the obvious appeal of improving the living standards for a significant proportion of the world population we go further towards answering this question by studying a major determinant of growth regulations governing business activity our results also have significant implications for policy they suggest that countries should put priority on reforming their business regulations when designing growth policies measures of institutions currently used in the growth literature indicate the extent of problems but not how to resolve them by contrast the indicators in the doing business database are directly linked to specific reforms for example the procedures to register a business or property can be cut by combining them at a one stop shop for businesses establishing a credit bureau or reducing mandated severance pay for workers will also improve performance on the business regulations index our findings imply that identifying and implementing such reforms can accelerate economic growth

budget spillovers and fiscal policy interdependence evidence from the states abstract this paper formalizes and tests the notion that states expenditures depend on the spending of similarly situated states we find that even after allowing for fixed state effects year effects and common random shocks among neighbors a state government s level of per capita expenditure is positively and significantly affected by the expenditure levels of its neighbors ceteris paribus a one dollar increase in a state s neighbors expenditures increases its own expenditure by over 70 cents

the effects of inflation and money supply announcements on interest rates this paper examines the impact of the money supply and inflation rate announcements on interest rates survey data on expectations of the money supply and consumer and producer price indexes are used to distinguish anticipated and unanticipated components of the announcements this distinction is used to test for the efficiency of the financial market response to the announcements of new information the results indicate that the unanticipated components of the announced changes in the producers price index and in the money supply have an immediate positive effect on short term interest rates the consumer price index announcement has no apparent effect there is no evidence of a delayed announcement effect however there is some indication of a liquidity effect of the money supply change on interest rates this takes place when reserves are changing and several weeks prior to the information announcement the effect of money supply announcements on interest rates has attracted considerable attention in both the academic literature and the financial press in the last few years it has been firmly established that unanticipated increases in the money supply lead to immediate increases in interest rates however there are several competing explanations for this phenomenon in the literature in this paper we present some additional empirical evidence which helps to distinguish between two of these hypotheses the policy anticipations and inflationary expectations hypotheses by examining the effect of money supply and inflation announcements on interest rates the positive effect on interest rates of announcements of unanticipated increases in the money supply was demonstrated by urich and wachtel 9 grossman 3 and roley 5 the announcement effect was interpreted in our earlier paper as a policy anticipations effect and has been interpreted by others e g cornell 1 as an inflationary expectations effect since both effects are in the same direction it is difficult to distinguish between them without additional evidence the policy anticipations effect is simply that an unanticipated increase in the money supply causes financial market participants to expect that the federal reserve will tighten the monetary reins in order to offset the increase in anticipation of future tightening there is a tendency for interest rates to increase the inflationary expectations effect is that an unanticipated increase

how do federal regulations affect consumer prices an analysis of the regressive effects of regulation this study is the first to measure the impact of federal regulations on consumer prices by combining consumer expenditure and pricing data from the bureau of labor statistics industry supply chain data from the bureau of economic analysis and industry specific regulation information from the mercatus center s regdata database we determine that regulations promote higher consumer prices and that these price increases have a disproportionately negative effect on low income households specifically we find that the poorest households spend larger proportions of their incomes on heavily regulated goods and services prone to sharp price increases while the literature explores other specific costs of regulation noting that higher consumer prices are a probable consequence of heavy regulation this study is the first to provide a thorough empirical analysis of that relationship across industries irrespective of the reasons for imposing new regulations these results demonstrate that in the aggregate the negative consequences are significant especially for the most vulnerable households

some evidence on the effect of the separation of spending and taxing decisions it is often argued that separation of public spending and taxing decisions engenders in the voter overoptimistic hopes that someone else will bear the cost of public services thereby inducing an increase in the size of government but are perceived tax prices systematically and persistently reduced by separation although in stock markets all agents expectations may be unbiased they may or may not be unbiased in political markets this paper analyzes the separation created in federal states when the central government finances local expenditures evidence from a dynamic decisive voter model is presented that indicates that the separation introduced by federal grants to canadian provinces did in fact reduce the perceived tax price of provincial public services and raise provincial expenditures the results suggest also that the effect of separation diminished over time

learning from trading the incorporation of diverse information into asset prices is empirically examined in an actual securities market with multiple rounds of trade using prices of israeli index and nominal bonds of equal maturity we calculate implied expectations of inflation that has already occurred butfor which the official statistic has not yet been announced learning is defined as the convergence of these expectations to the actual level of infzation in the period after the end of the month but before the announcement of the official statistic wefind that the variance of the injiation expectation errors decreases with trading days in this period the decline in the variance suggests that investors learn by repeatedly observing prices about the distribution of other investors information we also find a positive relation between the dispersion of relative price changes and the size of the inflation expectation errors on thefirst round of trade the correlation diminishes as

the relation between stock prices and inflationary expectations the international evidence this paper provides empirical evidence on the relation between stock returns and inflationary expectations for nine countries over the period 1971 80 the fisherian assumption that real returns are independent of inflationary expectations is soundly rejected for each major stock market of the world using interest rates as a proxy for expected inflation our data provide consistent support for the geske and roll model whose basic hypothesis is that stock price movements signal negative revisions in inflationary expectations finally a weak real interest rate effect was found for some of these countries

a simple adaptive measure of core inflation this paper proposes a new measure of core inflation and compares it with several existing measures the new measure is adaptive and is designed to track sudden and persistent movements in inflation such as those arising from changes in monetary policy regimes the adaptive measure filters out transients more effectively than existing measures and it is a superior predictor of locally mean reverting components of inflation

when do tips prices adjust to inflation information this event study of market efficiency found that prices of treasury inflation protected securities tips adjust to inflation information without delay during the u s consumer price index cpi survey period and even before the beginning of the survey period the cumulative effect of unexpected inflation on the tips holding period returns peaks at the end of the survey period after the cpi announcement there is no discernible price adjustment

short term interest rates as predictors of inflation on testing the hypothesis that the real rate of interest is constant in an innovative and provocative paper in this review eugene fama presents evidence which appears to be consistent with the joint hypothesis that the real rate of interest ignoring taxes is a constant and that the market for u s treasury bills is efficient in the sense of embodying rational expectations those findings are strikingly at variance with a long list of previous studies which seemed to support the view that the real rate of interest varies over time and can be related to economic variables such as real output monetary policy and so forth 2 the methodologies which lead to these contradictory conclusions are quite different previous studies had followed the lead of irving fisher by relating nominal interest rates to distributed lags on past rates of inflation 3 these distributed lags are generally interpreted as approximations to the market s expected rate of inflation and thus any remaining variation is attributed to variation in the real rate 4 fama s methodology on the other hand draws on the fact that the difference between the market interest rate and the subsequently observed rate of inflation the ex post real interest rate consists by definition of the ex ante real interest rate plus a pure forecasting error 5 the hypothesis of market efficiency implies that these forecasting errors must be serially random thus observing ex post real rates is equivalent to observing ex ante real rates with random measurement error these errors of course confound the problem of identifying variation in the ex ante real rate in this paper we will argue that the relative magnitude of these measurement errors is such that the tests carried out by fama were not powerful enough to reject the joint hypothesis that the ex ante real rate is a constant and expectations are rational more powerful tests which are presented in this paper using the same data do lead to rejection of that hypothesis of course rejection

the role of regulation on entry evidence from the italian provinces this paper studies the effects of differences in local administrative burdens in italy in the years 2005 2007 preceding a major reform that sped up firm registration procedures combining regulatory data from a survey on italian provinces before the reform costs and time to start a business with industry level entry rates of limited liability firms it explores the effects of regulatory barriers on the average of the annual entry rates across industries with different natural propensities to enter the market the estimates of the cross sectional analysis show that lengthier and to some extent more costly procedures reduced entry in sectors with naturally high entry a one day delay in registration procedures reduces the entry rate in highly dynamic sectors by more than 1 percent these results hold when i include measures of local financial development and of efficiency of bankruptcy procedures are included

money supply announcements interest rates and foreign exchange abstract this paper presents a test of the joint hypothesis that money supply announcements affect the real interest rate and that changes in the real interest rate affect the exchange rate in the short run the test results are consistent with the joint hypothesis for example it is found that announcement of an unexpected jump in the money supply is accompanied by an increase in interest rates and an appreciation of the dollar if the rise in interest rates was entirely due to higher inflationary expectations the dollar should not appreciate

tests of the fisher hypothesis with international data theory and evidence the fisher hypothesis 7 8 states that nominal interest rates adjust fully to expected inflation for years tests of this hypothesis followed fisher 8 in regressing nominal rates on a distributed lag of past inflation which was used as a proxy for the expected rate of inflation see roll 15 for references fisher eventually concluded that nominal rates do not fully reflect expected inflation saying that when the cost of living is not stable the rate of interest takes the appreciation and depreciation into account to some extent but only slightly and in general indirectly 1 fisher attributed this to money illusion in more recent years other researchers have explained the non neutrality of inflation on grounds of general equilibrium sargent 16 and taxes darby 3 and feldstein 6 a new method of testing the fisher hypothesis was introduced by fama 4 he concluded that interest rates set in u s financial markets are informationally efficient fama s work highlighted the two separate although not always distinguishable elements in the fisher hypothesis 1 the effect of expected inflation on the expected real rate and 2 the question of whether or not the nominal rate reflects a rational forecast of expected inflation to test the informational efficiency of nominal rates fama 4 assumed a constant expected real rate arguing in the later paper that the efficiency test is robust with respect to the assumption of the constancy of the expected real rate this assumption has come under severe criticism carlson 2 nelson and schwert 14 on the grounds that the efficiency results are not verifiable given the actual behavior of realized real rates summers 17 extended the study of interest rates to the period 1860 to 1979 using both fisher s and fama s methods and found that the results are less favorable for the fisher hypothesis in a more recent study fama and gibbons 5 tested the fisher hypothesis using a procedure developed by ansley 1 which assumes that the expected real rate follows a random walk they concluded that nominal rates fully reflect expected inflation at the same time that the expected real rate adjusts to it this paper examines the question of whether international interest rates reflect expected inflation in their respective countries in doing so we expand on the previous work of kane and rosenthal 11 we show that although fama 4 introduced a bias into his tests his general approach was correct we then present simple time series tests and show that they fail for eurocurrency rates

market rationality tests based on cross equation restrictions abstract the information used by researchers in cross equation tests of rational expectations may be a small subset of the information available to the market such tests produce consistent estimates but have low power we develop a mechanism for dealing with this problem and use the procedure to perform cross equation tests on predictions from the football betting market the tests fail to reject rationality we provide evidence that market predictions from betting markets are not formed rationally it appears therefore that cross equation tests have low power even if the information sets used by the researcher and the market are approximately the same

the impact of business environment reforms on new registrations of limited liability companies panel data for 91 countries are used to study how the ease of registering a business and the magnitude of registration reforms affect new registrations of limited liability companies llcs the costs days and procedures required to start a business are found to be important predictors of new llc registration panel regressions also show important synergies in multiple reforms of two or more business environment indicators these results are consistent with the intuition that to be effective reforms should be sufficiently large so that the costs of registration are lower than the expected benefits in addition countries with relatively weaker business environments prior to reforms require relatively larger reforms to impact the number of newly registered llcs

on the accuracy of time series interest rate and survey forecasts of inflation there has been much work examining and evaluating different methodologies in forecasting inflation for example fama 1975 1977 develops an interest rate model to predict the 1 monthahead rate of inflation using the cpi fama and gibbons 1982 1984 modify the interest rate model to account for a nonconstant real rate of interest and compare it to a univariate timeseries forecasting model and to the livingston forecasts carlson 1977a 1977b and others also analyze the consensus forecasts from the livingston survey pertaining to multiperiod forecasts of inflation pearce 1979 considered the livingston survey and time series forecasts our purpose in this paper is to investigate further the relative forecasting ability of three different methodologies in contrast to previous studies that have generally used the cpi to measure inflation our analysis uses the implicit gnp deflator this modification is motivated largely by the fact that calculations of the cpi inflat n rate often are distorted greatly by changes in relative prices e g blinder 1980 fischer 1981 this paper compares the accuracy of three different inflation forecasting procedures these include a univariate time series model an interest rate model based on the methodology of fama and gibbons and the median forecasts derived from the american statistical association national bureau of economic research survey the evidence presented is based on ex ante forecasts of quarterly inflation rates using the gnp deflator for the period 1970 11984 11 based on the evidence presented the general conclusion is that the survey forecasts provide the most accurate inflation forecasts

regulatory policy oecd experience and evidence in the past 20 years a key topic of public sector reform in oecd countries has been the emergence of regulatory policy during this period the nature of regulation has undergone profound and rapid change this paper reviews the development of regulatory policy in oecd countries over the last quarter century it identifies a range of tools and institutions that have been used by oecd countries to develop high quality regulation the analysis attempts to show that while there is considerable commonality on broad objectives of regulatory policy considerably diversity remains in the implementation of regulatory policy across oecd countries copyright 2006 oxford university press

are tax effects important in the long run fisher relationship evidence from the municipal bond market are nominal bonds appropriately discounted for taxes empirical estimnates of the response of nominal interest rates to changes in inflation the fisher effect have failed to produce a definitive answer four reasons have been put forward as possible explanations i tobin effects ii fiscal illusion iii peso problems and iv different estimators utilizing data on taxable and tax exempt bond interest rates and several different estimators we find that the fisher effect estimates are always larger for the taxable bond relative to the tax exempt bond suggesting that fiscal illusion and different estimators cannot account for the previous results how economic agents respond to the tax burdens of assets with different tax treatment is an important issue at both the level of the individual micro and the aggregate economy macro one clear source of evidence would appear to be the market for high quality debt trading in both taxable and tax exempt debt occurs on a daily basis the response of the rates of return on taxable and tax exempt debt to changes in expected inflation are described by the fisher relationship the fisher relationship is one of the oldest equilibrium relationships in financial economics fisher s original proposition was that if the real rate of interest is relatively constant over time a fully perceived change in the purchasing power of money as proxied by the inverse of the rate of inflation would be accompanied by a proportional increase in the nominal interest rate darby 1975 points out that when nominal interest income is taxed as are interest payments on u s treasury bills the fisher relationship implies a response from nominal interest rates that is greater than the change in expected inflation in order to maintain the constant ex ante real interest rate summers 1983 suggests that given average marginal tax rates in the united states the appropriate value of the fisher effect is 1 3 to 1 5 for tax exempt bonds the original fisher specification should be a good approximation implying a fisher effect close to unity in a seminal paper fama 1975 presents evidence to support the hypothesis that changes in nominal

serial correlation and the fixed effects model this paper generalizes the durbin watson type statistics to test the ols residuals from the fixed effects model for serial independence also generalized are the tests proposed by sargan and bhargava for the hypothesis that the residuals form a random walk a method for efficient estimation of the parameters is also developed finally an earnings function is estimated using the michigan survey of income dynamics in order to illustrate the uses of the tests and the estimation procedures developed in this paper

real and nominal effects of central bank monetary policy abstract we examine the impact of monetary policy using israeli data on nominal and indexed bonds which allow us to decompose nominal interest rates into inflation expectations and ex ante real interest rates we find that a monetary policy shock introduced by raising the overnight rate the bank of israel charges member banks raises real interest rates but lowers inflation expectations long term real interest rates are less impacted than short term rates lastly monetary shocks affect the exchange rate between the israeli currency and the us dollar our estimates are robust to numerous modifications to the basic var model

the effect of competition on executive compensation and incentives evidence from a quasi natural experiment the research was partially funded by fundacao para a ciencia e a tecnologia through the applied microeconomics research unit nima award no pest oe ege ui3181 2014

crop insurance adjusted panel data envelopment analysis efficiency measures the swamy arora panel data envelopment analysis model is presented to estimate crop insurance adjusted eciency based on an alternative two way

the flypaper effect identifying areas for further research the flypaper effect literature dates back three decades it is overwhelmingly neo classical in approach attempting to improve the median voter demand model and or temper it with public choice supply side perspectives whilst this approach provided valuable early substantial analytical insights more recent papers seem to have contributed only marginally to an understanding of the flypaper effect if indeed it exists at all hence as well as providing a long overdue comprehensive review of the literature on the flypaper effect this paper identifies more productive avenues for further research

the regulation of labor author s botero juan djankov simeon la porta rafael lopez de silanes florencio shleifer andrei abstract we investigate the regulation of labor markets through employment collective relations and social security laws in 85 countries we find that the political power of the left is associated with more stringent labor regulations and more generous social security systems and that socialist french and scandinavian legal origin countries have sharply higher levels of labor regulation than do common law countries however the effects of legal origins are larger and explain more of the variation in regulations than those of politics heavier regulation of labor is associated with lower labor force participation and higher unemployment especially of the young these results are most naturally consistent with legal theories according to which countries have pervasive regulaory styles inherited from the transplantation of legal systems

the flypaper effect and other anomalies abstract i develop a model in which income both in its own right and as a proxy for other socioeconomic characteristics is an input in the production function for local public services the most obvious example is education though there are other applications as well the comparative statics results from this model yield the following results 1 the observed flypaper effect the tendency for local government to spend a higher fraction of unrestricted grants than income of residents may be due at least in part to the fact that own income but not grants is a substitute for purchased inputs in the technology hence the propensity to spend on purchased inputs out of own income is lower than out of grants 2 the income elasticity of demand for public sector output may be higher than the observed income elasticity of demand for purchased inputs 3 equalization of educational opportunity via wealth neutrality as suggested by feldstein requires major changes in education finance once we recognice the distinction between purchased inputs and output

information aggregation inflation and the pricing of indexed bonds using daily prices of indexed bonds between 1970 and 1979 we test whether announcements of the israeli cpi contain information that is not already reflected in bond prices the results indicate that bond prices reflect about 85 percent of the new information about inflation as it occurs i e when the central bureau of statistics samples prices the announcement of the cpi 15 days after the end of the sampling period causes the remaining 15 percent adjustment in bond prices this evidence raises questions about the empirical importance of misperceptions about inflation as a source of nonneutrality in monetary policy

the real thing a dynamic profile of the term structure of real interest rates and inflation expectations in the united kingdom 1982 89 this article estimates real interest rates and inflation expectations from market observable data without assuming anything about the form of agents expectation formation mechanism by examining prices of index linked and conventional gilt edged securities form the u k bond market real interest rates and inflation expectations are computed quarterly beginning 1982 2 for up to fourteen maturities ranging from 1988 to 2024 copyright 1990 by the university of chicago

macroeconomic announcements and price discovery in the foreign exchange market this study shows that the dominance of the overlapping trading hours of london and new york in the price discovery of the eur usd and usd jpy markets only applies on days with u s announcements different from cai et al 2008 and wang and yang 2011 we highlight the informational advantage of local traders at the arrival of macroeconomic announcements in the local market and find that macroeconomic announcements affect the pattern of price discovery across different markets consistent with chen and gau 2010 and jiang et al 2012 we also examine changes in information shares before and after the announcement a significant increase in price discovery before the announcement suggests the possibility of information leakage while enhanced price discovery efficacy after the announcement suggests that prices gradually adjust to new information not just immediately respond to the arrival of announcements

the adjustment of stock prices to information about inflation this paper analyzes the reaction of stock prices to the new information about inflation based on daily returns to the standard and poor s composite portfolio from 1953 78 it seems that the stock market reacts negatively to the announcement of unexpected inflation in the consumer price index c p i although the magnitude of the reaction is small it is interesting to note that the stock market seems to react at the time of announcement of the c p i approximately one month after the price data are collected by the bureau of labor statistics

futures markets and the fluctuations in inflation monetary growth and asset returns inflation and nominal interest rates have been volatile in recent years futures contracts in price indices would help in this environment by enhancing information about prices and by providing a convenient means for people to hedge against inflation there is some evidence that the availability of these instruments would encourage investment and reduce the mean real rate of return on long term bonds indexed bonds which are now significant in britain serve a similar purpose in the absence of such bonds there would be a market for price index futures although the volume of trading would probably be modest this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

do federal grants boost school spending evidence from title i abstract one of the federal government s main elementary and secondary education programs is title i which allocates money for compensatory education to school districts based on child poverty i use sharp changes in per pupil grant amounts surrounding the release of decennial census data to identify effects of title i on state and local education revenue and how much the program ultimately increases spending by recipient school districts i find that state and local revenue efforts initially are unaffected by title i changes but that local governments substantially and significantly crowd out changes in title i within in a 3 year period

the fisher hypothesis under different monetary regimes we examine the relation between inflation and nominal interest rates under the various monetary regimes in effect in the united states since the turn of the century our data include a newly constructed time series of short term municipal bond yields observed annually since 1902 the results generally support the hypothesis that after tax nominal yields adjust point for point with rationally forecasted inflation for the postwar years but strongly reject that hypothesis for the preceding years we suggest and offer supporting evidence that the difference between the two subperiods may be attributable to differences in the optimal forecasting technique for each era when forecasting is a costly endeavor

relative price variability real shocks and the stock market in this paper we investigate the effects of relative price variability on output and the stock market and gauge the extent to which inflation proxies for relative price variability in stock return inflation regressions the evidence shows that the negative stock returninflation relations proxy for the adverse effects of relative price variability on economic activity particularly during the seventies when the u s experienced oil supply shocks hence it appears that inflation spuriously affects the stock market in two ways the aggregate output link of fama 1981 and the supply shocks reflected in relative price variability a number of papers have attempted to explain the anomalous negative relations between stock returns and inflation witnessed in the post war period one hypothesis that has held up well in light of empirical evidence suggests that the negative relation between stock returns and unexpected inflation simply reflects the more fundamental positive relation between stock returns and future real variables see e g fama 1981 geske and roll 1983 and kaul 1987 1989 in this paper we investigate the effects of relative price variability on output and the stock market and gauge the extent to which inflation proxies for relative price variability in stock return inflation regressions first relative price variability can have detrimental effects on output and employment see e g friedman 1977 and barro 1976 second absolute relative price confusion models of the lucas 1973 type suggest that monetary shocks can induce a positive relation between inflation and relative price variability see e g cukierman 1983 hence the negative stock return inflation relations could simply be a reflection of the negative effects of relative price variability on the stock market we use data for the 1947 1985 period to test the various links of our hypothesis the results indicate that relative price variability is positively related to both expected and unexpected inflation measures relative price variability also has a significant negative effect on output and the stock market more importantly

between development and social policies the impact of european structural funds in objective 1 regions rodriguez pose a and fratesi u 2004 between development and social policies the impact of european structural funds in objective 1 regions reg studies 38 97 113 european regional support has grown in parallel with european integration the funds targeted at achieving greater economic and social cohesion and reducing disparities within the european union eu have more than doubled in relative terms since the end of the 1980s making development policies the second most important policy area in the eu the majority of the development funds have been earmarked for objective 1 regions i e regions where gdp per capita is below the 75 threshold of the eu average however the european development policies have come under increasing criticism based on two facts the lack of upward mobility of assisted regions and the absence of regional convergence this paper assesses using cross sectional and panel data analyses the failure so far of european development policies to fulfil their objective of de

do forest assets hedge inflation forest assets are commonly viewed as good hedges against inflation the view is based largely however on anecdotal evidence rather than empirical analysis this paper examines the historical relationship between forestry returns and inflation the results suggest that forests in the u s west and south have been superior hedges against higher than anticipated inflation forests in the northeast have been less effective inflation hedges the results also indicate that western and southern forests have been overvalued during periods of relatively high expected inflation markets for forests in the northeast however have been relatively efficient processors of inflation expectations

estimation of the specification error in the fisher equation this paper asks how false is the fisher hypotheis previous work has asked is the fisher hypothesis true the framework here characterizes the specification error in the the fisher equation as model noise following durlauf and hall 1988 1989a 1989b the noise provides a metric for the specification error for the post war period to october 1979 the variance of the noise is small while after that date it is apparently large that is using a method that contains many previous tests of the fisher effect in explaining nominal in explaining nominal interest rate movements mishkin 1991 has criticized this consensus as reflection a common stochastic trend in inflation and nominal interest rates prior to october 1979 the test here is immune to this criticism as i use the ex post real interest rate as the regressand and show that at least prior to october 1979 it obeys a sationary process

an evaluation of eu regional policy do structural actions crowd out public spending motivated by the lack of success of previous studies trying to estimate the impact of the european cohesion policy this paper brings an unexplored issue to light transfers that are intended to finance public investment in key areas for growth might be crowded out by subsidized governments to alternative uses in fact using annual data from fifteen member countries 1993 2005 we conclude that public investment in the member countries makes up around 60 of the increase in eu funds the limited role of the european commission in the allocation of the funds could partially explain this result

inflation and real interest rates on assets with different risk characteristics given the importance of ex ante real interest rates to economic decision making it is no surprise that much empirical research focuses on them 1 several recent studies find that the ex ante real returns for short term u s treasury securities are not constant and are negatively correlated both with inflation and with nominal interest rates this paper examines the extent to which these findings hold for assets of longer maturity are robust with respect to the choice of price index and are stable over time we expand the set of assets studied to include those of longer maturity both publicly and privately issued for two reasons first their ex ante real returns may differ substantially from that of a short term nominally riskless security second because longer maturity assets have risk characteristics closer to capital their ex ante real returns are potentially more relevant for investment and savings decisions we explore the use of various price indices because the index used in most studies the consumer price index severely overstates inflation during the 1970s as a result of its inappropriate treatment of residential housing costs 2 this overstatement casts doubt on an important finding of previous studies that there are long stretches of time during the 1970s when ex ante real rates are significantly negative given the existence of holding costs for the goods relevant to most price indices and the absence of a riskless real return no arbitrage conditions are violated by a negative ex ante real rate however its persistence is problematical because asset holders are typically assumed to have a positive rate of time preference which ensures a positive ex ante real rate in the long run we find that before 1979 a negative relationship of ex ante real rates both with inflation and with nominal interest rates appears for the longer maturity assets as well as the short term nominally riskless asset indeed the relationship grows

real interest rates and inflation an ex ante empirical analysis we develop a method of measuring ex ante real interest rates using prices of index and nominal bonds employing this method and newly available data we directly test the fisher hypothesis that the real rate of interest is independent of inflation expectations we find a negative correlation between ex ante real interest rates and expected inflation this contradicts the fisher hypothesis but is consistent with the theories of mundell and tobin darby and feldstein and stulz we also find that nominal interest rates include an inflation risk premium that is positively related to a proxy for inflation uncertainty

the unequal enforcement of liberalization evidence from russia s reform of business regulation we document the unequal enforcement of liberalization reform of business regulation across russian regions with different governance institutions which leads to unequal effects of liberalization national liberalization laws were enforced more effectively in subnational regions with more transparent government a more informed population a higher concentration of industry and stronger fiscal autonomy as a result liberalization had a substantial positive effect on the performance of small firms and the growth of the official small business sector in regions with stronger governance institutions in contrast in regions with weaker governance institutions we observe no effect of reform and in some cases even a negative effect

inflation or disinflation evidence from maturing us treasury inflation protected securities the prices of maturing us treasury inflation protected securities tips during the last 6 month coupon period reveal whether the market is anticipating an inflationary or disinflationary regime against the benchmark of the treasury bill yield to adjust for the time value of money maturing tips prices represent a sequence of updated forecasts of the consumer price index cpi to be used to determine the final single cash flow on the maturity date under the assumption of risk neutrality the sequence of forecasts is modelled as a martingale generalized method of moments and regression analysis are used to test two martingale properties of the cpi forecasts 1 the unconditional mean of daily changes in the cpi forecasts is zero and 2 serial correlations of the daily changes in the cpi forecasts are zero the test statistics reject both martingale properties of the cpi forecasts implied in maturing tips prices a persistent upward movement of the cpi forecasts toward the actual target cpi during the

investment climate and firm productivity an application to vietnamese manufacturing firms abstractthe fundamental aspect of a national competitive advantage is a good investment climate understanding the role of the investment climate in generating firm productivity has received extensive attention by policymakers and economists in many countries the article studies the effect of different dimensions of the investment climate on firm productivity using a large dataset of vietnamese manufacturing firms the article finds that deficiencies in the investment climate are prejudicial to firm productivity and competition furthermore in examining the effect of corruption in association with the quality of the business environment the study also investigates the possibility that corruption may compensate firms for a bad investment climate or at least may neutralize the negative impact of inefficient government regulations in other words corruption acts as speed money to improve the efficacy of the provision of public services or provides leeway for entrepreneurs to bypass the inefficient reg

is there a unit root in the inflation rate evidence from sequential break and panel data models summary using sequential trend break and panel data models we investigate the unit root hypothesis for the inflation rates of thirteen oecd countries with individual country tests we find evidence of stationarity in only four of the thirteen countries the results are more striking with the panel data model we can strongly reject the unit root hypothesis both for a panel of all thirteen countries and for a number of smaller panels consisting of as few as three countries the non rejection of the unit root hypothesis for inflation is very fragile to even a small amount of cross section variation 1997 john wiley sons ltd

a new index of the business environment for microfinance this paper describes a new index of the quality of the business environment for microfinance institutions the global microscope on the microfinance business environment regressions are used to validate the index by linking it and its subcomponents to microfinance outcomes the main findings are that the components of the index related to the supporting institutional framework are strongly linked to measures of microfinance penetration such as microfinance borrowers as a share of total population components related to the framework for regulation and supervision are more strongly linked to outcomes at the microfinance institution level including loan portfolio quality financial self sufficiency average loan size and the share of lending to women many but not all of these relationships are robust to using instrumental variables estimation in which a country s general stringency with respect to financial regulation is used as an instrument for the index and its components

deals and delays firm level evidence on corruption and policy implementation times whether demands for bribes for particular government services are associated with expedited or delayed policy implementation underlies debates around the role of corruption in private sector development the grease the wheels hypothesis which contends that bribes act as speed money implies three testable predictions first on average bribe requests should be negatively correlated with wait times second this relationship should vary across firms with those with the highest opportunity cost of waiting being more likely to pay and facing shorter delays third the role of grease should vary across countries with benefits larger where regulatory burdens are greatest the data are inconsistent with all three predictions according to the preferred specifications ceteris paribus firms confronted with demands for bribes take approximately 1 5 times longer to get a construction permit operating license or electrical connection than firms that did not have to pay bribes and respectively 1 2 and 1 4

we voted for this abstract this paper examines two institutional factors that influenced school spending in missouri during the 1970s first the retirement of a bond issue is usually accompanied by an increase in the operating tax rate which requires voter approval the retirement of a bond issue does not reduce but apparently obscures the cost of a tax increase in addition a change in assessment practices in 1975 allowed some districts to increase their effective operating rates without voter approval each of these factors led to substantial tax increases in the affected districts

entry regulation and business start ups evidence from mexico the authors estimate the effect on business start ups of a program that significantly speeds up firm registration procedures the program was implemented in mexico in different municipalities at different dates authors estimates suggest that new start ups increased by about 4 percent in eligible industries and the authors present evidence that this is a causal effect most of the effect is temporary concentrated in the first 10 months after implementation the effect is robust to several specifications of the benchmark control group time trends the authors find that the program was more effective in municipalities with less corruption and cheaper additional procedures

estimating the fisher effect and the stochastic money growth process this paper demonstrates that a change in the stochastic process generating money can alter the relationships between money and inflation and between inflation and interest rates the extent to which inflation is forecastable is shown to depend significantly on the extent to which money is forecastable thus the greater the persistence and forecastability of money the greater the likelihood of observing a statistically significant fisher effect us data over the 1953 86 period are used to demonstrate that instability in the fisher effect coincides with changes in the stochastic process generating money there is a significantly stronger fisher effect during a subsample in which money and hence inflation are more predictable

information aggregation in a noisy rational expectations economy abstract this paper analyzes a general equilibrium model of a competitive security market in which traders possess independent pieces of information about the return of a risky asset each trader conditions his estimate of the return both on his own private source of information and price which in equilibrium serves as a noisy aggregator of the total information observed by all traders a closed form characterization of the rational expectations equilibrium is presented a counter example to the existence of fully revealing equilibrium is developed