measuring the spillovers from technical advance mainframe computers in financial services measuring the social gains from recent technological advances is difficult because there are no output indexes from some important adopters measurement methods that infer the willingness to pay of theadopting industries from the derived demand curve for a new technologyovercome this difficulty the derived demand for high speed computersfor use in banks finance and insurance is shown to imply a very largesocial gain to computerization that is not captured by computer manufacturers copyright 1986 by american economic association

movements towards free trade and domestic market performance with imperfect competition this paper studies the response of a dominant domestic oligopoly to the reduction in the rate of a protective tariff the issue here is whether domestic market performance is improved through a movement toward free trade alone put another way is free trade always a substitute for competition policy we find that the lower tariff may lead to inferior domestic market performance the direction of the change and its magnitude are functions of the shape of the import supply function the degree of competition between oligopolists and whether or not entry is possible thus there is reason to believe that a strong competition policy may in some markets be complementary to freer trade

parents discount rates for child quality contemporary discussions of economic growth make human capital or knowledge accumulation its primary engine 25 human capital as the lead component of the stock of wealth defines a developed economy becker and murphy 4 show that human capital both increases and is increased by the scope of the market its rate of return rises with the size of its stock 5 human capital also plays significant roles in models of human fertility choice 40 population and environmental degradation 11 34 capital mobility 3 and endogenous technological progress 33 a substantial portion of an adult s human capital is accumulated during childhood children as children however cannot independently contract for the resources required to support investments in this human capital though nearly every society grants parents wide discretion about the nurture they provide their children little is understood about what motivates investment by one generation in another the relative importance of different investment modes or the discount rates which parents apply whatever the motivation and the mode because of the long time span between birth and adulthood parents discount rates potentially exert great leverage upon the investment decisions they make for their children knowledge of these discount rates is a prerequisite to acquiring an improved understanding of the internal decision processes of the household a collective decision unit which economics mostly treats as a black box 1 important policy questions as well as scientific accuracy and logical consistency demand knowledge of the discount rates parents apply to investments in their children healthier better educated and wealthier children have a better chance in life but there is no evident reason to suppose that intrafamily discount rates are socially optimal 2 many of the private reactions and behaviors which reinforce or temper the intended effects of public policies are internal to the household when these intended effects have a substantial temporal dimension parental discount rates will be influential for example increased public investments in children can be neutralized

does diversification destroy value evidence from the industry shocks does corporate diversification reduce shareholder value since firms endogenously choose to diversify exogenous variation in diversification is necessary to draw inferences about the causal effect we examine changes in the within firm dispersion of industry investment or diversity we find that exogenous changes in diversity due to changes in industry investment are negatively related to firm value thus diversification destroys value consistent with the inefficient internal capital markets hypothesis measurement error does not cause this finding we also find that exogenous changes in industry cash flow diversity are negatively related to firm value r 2002 elsevier science s a all rights reserved jel classification g34

estimating the effect of hierarchies on information use theory suggests that greater hierarchical distance between a subordinate and his boss makes it more di cult to share abstract and subjective information in decision making a novel data set put together from credit dossiers of large corporate loan applicants enables us to observe the information collected by loan o cers and also how it is used by the ultimate loan approving o cer we flnd that greater hierarchical geographical distance between the information collecting agent and the loan approving o cer leads to less reliance on subjective information and more on objective information by exploiting non linearities in the assignment rules that determine an applicant s hierarchical distance and using information collecting agent flxed efiects we show that our result cannot be driven by endogenous assignment of applicants we also flnd that higher frequency of interactions between the information collecting agent and loan approving o cer both over time and through geographical proximity helps mitigate the efiects of hierarchical distance on information use our results show that hierarchical distance in uences information use and highlights the importance of human touch in communication

estimating griliches k shifts griliches k shift a crucial parameter in the welfare evaluation of technological change is shown to be equal to the radial rate of technological change plus a vector of commodity bias parameters obtained from the distance function the analysis permits decomposition of sectoral productivity growth into productivity growth by commodity the k shifts estimated for wheat corn soybeans and beef in u s agriculture indicate a decrease in the marginal cost of production of corn soybeans and wheat during the 1950 1993 years

can megamergers improve bank efficiency abstract this paper uses a fitted multiproduct translog cost function to simulate mergers between pairs of us commercial banks with assets exceeding 1 billion and studies the predicted impact of such mergers on total costs thick frontier analysis reveals that variations in x efficiency dominate scale product mix and branching efficiencies ex ante financial data imply that costs could potentially be reduced in nearly half of the possible mergers except those between banks each larger than 10 billion most cost efficient mergers are across state lines apparently a result of variations in product mix

global economic integration in developing countries the role of corruption and human capital investment globalization is multifaceted and involves the interaction among businesses services governments and societies beyond national borders as a result the flow of foreign direct investment fdi international trade in goods and services and the economic interdependence of the nations of the world have been increasing at the same time much attention has been paid to the effect of corruption prevalent within many cultures and societies and its impact on the economies especially developing economies this paper examines the relationship between human capital investment the level of national corruption and the global economic integration gei of a nation in developing countries based on the data collected from over 60 countries and building on the fdi and human capital theories it was found that human capital investment and corruption are related to gei it was also found that the level of corruption moderates the relationship between human capital investment and gei of developing economies the findings of the study can help to deepen our understanding of gei and have practical implications for developing countries in terms developing human capital which plays a critical role in today s knowledge based economy

spillovers and governance an analysis of knowledge and reputational spillovers in information technology investigating spillovers potential costs and benefits to a firm that extend beyond an individual transaction i integrate transaction cost theory and the knowledge based view of the firm in an effort to better understand the efficient governance of knowledge contracts with detailed task descriptions were associated with transactions with the potential to generate new and reusable knowledge the risk of a firm s technology spilling over to others and the risk of reputation impairing spillovers were associated with suppliers using their own employees rather than subcontractors thus results suggest that the creation and protection of knowledge are key factors in understanding governance decisions

economic development and the division of production between households and markets a model is presented in which scale economies give market production a cost advantage over household production but in which market production is limited by the extent of the market the production process is viewed as a series of stages each further refining and specializing the product of the previous stage as processing proceeds the number of intermediate goods increases and markets thin out firms specialize in the early stages of production and house holds in the later stages as an economy grows production shifts out of households and into the market several other changes associated with economic development are also accounted for

is coal desulphurisation worthwhile evidence from the market abstract the paper develops a forward looking way to estimate the economic benefits of research and development on coal desulphurisation the methodology makes use of survey based techniques pioneered in environmental economics the empirical results illustrate the difficulty of configuring desulphurised coal to meet the requirements of existing electricity generating plants in addition to estimating the returns to investment in coal desulphurisation the contributions of the paper are in extending survey based valuation to meet the needs of r d investors for intelligence about the prospective value of their investments and using robust estimation techniques to reduce the influence of outliers

information technology and its impact on productivity firm level evidence from government and private data sources 1977 1993 robert solow s quip that we see computers everywhere but in the productivity statistics has prompted a large and growing literature examining the information productivity paradox some aggregate and industry level studies have failed to detect a positive contribution to productivity growth from investments in computer technology more recent studies utilizing firm level data however have detected a significant contribution this paper confirms the results of these latter studies using u s firm level computer asset and financial data for nonagricultural firms during the period 1977 1993 from a variety of data sources including the u s census bureau s enterprise and auxiliary establishment surveys compustat and computer intelligence infocorp a market research firm our principal finding that computers especially personal computers do contribute positively to productivity growth suggests that the traditional information productivity paradox is largely a measurement problemn this is closely related to the more general problem of assessing service sector productivity because computers are used most intensively in the service sector and in the service functions of non service sector firms e g payroll and purchasing as zvi griliches 1994 noted these activities pose the greatest problems for output and productivity measurement moreover although we may see computers everywhere they represent only a tiny fraction of capital stock on about 2 of plant property and equipment so aggregate effects may be hard to detect oliner and sichel 1993 our data indicate that computers not only contributed to productivity growth during the period 1977 1993 but they yielded excess returns relative to other types of capital the data also suggest that computer productivity peaked around 1986 1987 3 that computers are complementary with skilled labour krueger 1993 and autor katz and krueger 1997 and that use of computers may permit reductions in inventory levels finally and perhaps most interesting the evidence

the division of labor local markets and worker organization the model developed here explains differences in the degree of the division of labor across local markets for example the typical doctor in one local market may treat a wider range of patients problems than his counterpart in another local market the extent of the division of labor depends on variables affecting the local demand for services two different forms of worker organization cooperation and noncooperation yield divergent results for example specialization increases with the local number of producers under cooperation but may decrease under noncooperation with the number of producers constant local demand variables affect individual specialization under noncooperation but not under cooperation

domestic and international product embodied r d diffusion abstract the paper examines the process of product embodied rd it is the fastest growing acquired technology cluster with the share of other technology clusters steady or declining the authors would like to thank two anonymous referees for their constructive comments to previous versions of this paper while absolving them from any remaining errors the views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the oecd its member countries or the central research institute of the electric power industry in japan

comparative advantage geographic advantage and the volume of trade a functional relationship between the degree of a country s comparative advantage and the volume of its net exports of any good to its trading partner is established using a model with per unit distance transportation costs between countries coasts and their interiors the greater a country s comparative advantage the deeper its exports penetrate geographically into its trading partner the internal spatial structure of a country consists of cities on a river it is shown that population sizes wage rates and residential rental rates are greatest in the port city and decline monotonically as one moves inland copyright 1991 by royal economic society

specialization and human capital incentives for specialization trade and the production of comparative advantage through investment are shown to arise from increasing returns to utilization of human capital indivisibilities imply fixed cost elements of investment that are independent of subsequent utilization hence the rate of return is increasing in utilization and is maximized by utilizing specialized skills as intensively as possible identically endowed individuals have incentives to specialize their investments in skills and trade with each other for this reason even if production technology exhibits constant returns to scale

the welfare analysis of product innovations with an application to computed tomography scanners the main goal of this paper is to put forward a methodology for the measurement of product innovations using a value metric that is equating the magnitude of innovations with the welfare gains they generate this research design is applied to the case of computed tomography scanners a revolutionary innovation in medical technology the econometric procedure centers on the estimation of a discrete choice model the nested multinominal logit which yields the parameters of a utility function defined over the changing quality dimensions of the innovative product the estimated flow of social gains from innovation is used to compute a social rate of return to r d to explore the interrelation between innovation and diffusion and to trace the time profile of benefits and costs the latter suggesting the possible occurrence of technological cycles

foreign portfolio diversification and risk sharing we investigate income smoothing associated with international portfolio diversification by decomposing the net factor income nfi channel into interests dividends and retained earnings for oecd and eu countries we find that interest receipts and equity dividend payments contribute significantly to absorb domestic income shocks geographically concentrated portfolios and in particular biases toward eu markets have a strong negative effect on the degree of risk sharing

a general model of r d competition and policy this article constructs a model of r d with heterogeneous firms each firm s probability of success is a function of its sunk and recurrent r d expenditures the social gains from an innovation are not fully captured by the successful firm the comparison of the social optimum and the market equilibrium involves balancing spillover and crowding effects pigovian corrective policies as well as strategic policies for a subset of colluding firms are discussed

channels of interstate risk sharing united states 1963 1990 we develop a framework for quantifying the amount of risk sharing among states in the united states and construct data that allow us to decompose the cross sectional variance in gross state product into several components which we refer to as levels of smoothing we find that 39 percent of shocks to gross state product are smoothed by capital markets 13 percent are smoothed by the federal government and 23 percent are smoothed by credit markets the remaining 25 percent are not smoothed we also decompose the federal government smoothing into subcategories taxes transfers and grants to states

the solow productivity paradox what do computers do to productivity 1 you don t see computers everywhere in a meaningful economic sense computers and information processing equipment are a relatively small share of gdp and of the capital stock 2 you only thinkyou see computers everywhere government hedonic price indexes for computers fall too fast according to this position and therefore measured real computer output growth is also too fast 3 you may not see computers everywhere but in the industrial sectors where you most see them output is poorly measured examples are finance and insurance which are heavy users of information technology and where even the concept of output is poorly specified 4 whether or not you see computers everywhere some of what they do is not counted in economic statistics examples are consumption on the job convenience better user interface and so forth 5 you don t see computers in the productivity statistics yet but wait a bit and you will this is the analogy with the diffusion of electricity the idea that the productivity implications of a new technology are only visible witlh a long lag 6 you see computers everywhere but in the productivity statistics because computers are not as productive as you think here there are many anecdotes such as failed computer system design projects but there are also assertions from computer science that computer and software design has taken a wrong turn 7 there is no paradox some economists are counting innovations and new products on an arithmetic scale when they should count on a logarithmic scale

trade and the distribution of economic well being in an economy with local public goods abstract this paper models a small open economy containing many identical communities and two types of workers who are perfectly mobile across communities but not internationally competitive firms produce two tradable private goods and local governments provide residents with a single public good trade patterns differ across communities in equilibrium this observation is used to prove a modified version of the stolper samuelson theorem simply stated workers who are relatively concentrated in those communities that export a given good gain from a rise in the relative price of this good whereas the other workers lose

economies of scale and the volume of intra industry trade abstract using a model of monopolistic competition with traded and non traded goods this paper establishes a positive link between scale economies the volume of intra industry trade and the share of trade in total production these results are consistent with empirical findings

exact consumer s surplus and deadweight loss consumer s surplus is a widely used tool in applied welfare economics both economic theorists and cost benefit analysis often use consumer s surplus despite its somewhat dubious reputation the basic idea is to evaluate the value to a consumer or his willingness to pay for a change in price of a good from say pricep to pricep because price changes affect consumer welfare an evaluation of this effect is often a key input to public policy decisions yet consumer s surplus is probably the most controversial of widely used economic concepts both paul samuelson and ian little conclude that the economics profession would be better off without it it is my feeling of the situation that substantial agreement exists on the correct quantities to be measured the amount the consumer would pay or would need to be paid to be just as well off after the price change as he was before the price change the quantities correspond to john hicks compensating variation measures an alternative measure which takes ex post price change utility as the basis of comparison is hicks equivalent variation the controversy arises in the measurement of these quantities the usual measurement procedure is to use the area to the left of the marshallian market demand curve between two price levels jules dupuit originated this measure of welfare change and alfred marshall and hicks derived appropriate conditions for its use the primary condition for the area to the left of the demand curve to correspond to the compensating variation is to have constant marginal utility of income marshall gave this condition and if it holds the same quantity will be derived as the area to the left of the compensated hicksian demand curve this area to the left of the compensated demand curve is exactly what the compensating variation and equivalent variation measure thus the constant marginal utility of income is a sufficient condition for marshallian consumer s surplus to be equal to hicks consumer s surplus in this case arnold harberger s plea to use the welfare triangle as one half times the product of the price change times the quantity change to measure deadweight loss corresponds to the correct theoretical amount of welfare change in a recent paper robert willig derives bounds for the percentage difference between the correct measure of either the compensating or equivalent variation and the marshallian measure derived form the market demand curve his bounds which depend on the income elasticity of demand for the single good in the region of price change being considered as well as the proportion of the consumer s income spent on the good demonstrate that the marshallian consumer s surplus is often a good approximation to hicks consumer s surplus the fact that the proportion of the consumer s income spent matters as well as the income elasticity was first pointed out by harold hotelling willig contends that the approximation error will be less than the errors involved in estimating the demand curve thus he hopes to remove the need for apology that applied economists often need to give to theorists who remark on the inappropriateness of using marshallian consumer s surplus to measure welfare change however in this paper i show that for the case primarily considered by willig of a single price change which is also the situation in which consumer s surplus is often used in applied work no approximation is necessary professor of economics massachusetts institute of technology and research associate national bureau of economic research i would like to thank peter diamond erwin diewert daniel mcfadden robert merton robert solow hal varian joel yellin and the referees for help and comments research support from the national science foundation is acknowledged the reason that we still have two rather than one of samuelson s six measures of consumer s surplus arises from an index number problem of the correct basis for the welfare comparison i will give both measures but plan to concentrate on the compensating variation

policy watch the repeal of glass steagall and the advent of broad banking enactment of the gramm leach bliley act glba in november 1999 effectively repealed the long standing prohibitions on the mixing of banking with securities or insurance businesses and thus permits broad banking we attribute repeal of these prohibitions to the increasingly persuasive evidence from academic studies of the pre glass steagall era the recent favorable experience in the united states following partial deregulation of banking activities the experience of banking systems abroad with broader scopes for banking activities and rapid technological change in telecommunications and data processing how regulators will in practice coordinate their efforts so that the safety and soundness of the banking system is maintained efficiently remains to be seen

a partial adjustment approach to evaluating and measuring the business value of information technology abstract in this paper we develop a partial adjustment approach based on the theory of partial adjustment to assess the value of information technology we also propose a performance measure derived from the approach the constrained structural or implicit and unconstrained non structural or explicit models derived from the approach are fitted into a set of panel data at the country level covering the period from 1993 to 2006 for a sample of 12 countries including the g7 nations and are estimated by the seemingly unrelated regression estimation the results produced by the models are robust with respect to the choice of the production function representing the true desired or maximum output and challenge the widely held belief that the productivity paradox has disappeared and the view that the productivity paradox exists in developing economies only the proposed approach compares favorably with the time varying stochastic production frontier approach since it is easier and simpler to apply but unlike the non parametric data envelopment analysis approach it is parametric

the human capital stock a generalized approach this paper presents a new framework for human capital measurement the generalized framework can i substantially amplify the role of human capital in accounting for cross country income dierences and ii reconcile the existing con ict between regression and accounting evidence in assessing the wealth and poverty of nations one natural interpretation emphasizes dierences across economies in the acquisition of advanced knowledge by skilled workers

an empirical model of mainframe computer investment this paper introduces a dynamic model of investment decisions in mainframe computer systems i estimate and test the model using detailed micro data from a company in the telecommunications industry the model accounts for technological depreciation which distinguishes computers from other investment goods where physical depreciation is typically a key factor underlying replacement investment decisions the company increased its installed mainframe computer capacity by over 30 fold over the 10 year sample period part of this growth was undoubtedly due to the huge increase in performance and the corresponding drop in the per unit cost of processing capacity of mainframes a consequence of moore s law however there was also tremendous growth in the need for computers for billing account processing and other tasks due to the rapid growth in the telecommunications industry over this same time period i estimate the unknown parameters of the investment model using a nonlinear least squares nested fixed point algorithm nls nfxp which solves the bellman equation underlying the dynamic model of investment and replacement of mainframe computers by nonlinear least squares i demonstrate that it is feasible to estimate this model on an ordinary pc whereas standard discretization approaches to solving the firm s optimal investment policy might not even be feasible using supercomputers i show that the estimated model fits the data very well and accurately captures the large growth in installed mainframe capacity the timing and magnitude of replacement investment as well as periodic upgrades of existing mainframe units i use the model to decompose how much of the 30 fold increase in mainframe computer capacity is due to moore s law i e the huge drop in the unit cost of installed mainframe capacity and how much is due to the growth in demand for services of mainframes due to the rapid growth in demand for telecommunications services particularly cell phone accounts by the firm s customers copyright 2010 john wiley sons ltd

computerisation and wage dispersion an analytical reinterpretation the rich countries have recently seen a dramatic rise in income inequality all the more surprising because the long term trend had been toward equality this paper examines one of the leading explanations computerisation in the workplace i offer a theory of computers impact on white collar work which goes far toward explaining the timing form and locus of recent labour market changes the theory looks at the bureaucratic and organisational applications of computers that have been first largest and most influential they have two effects on firms demand for labour at different skill levels

why do rich countries prefer free trade over free migration the role of the modern welfare state abstract according to traditional trade theory heckscher ohlin free trade and free migration are equivalent measures of economic integration leading both to an equalization of factor prices this prediction is in sharp opposition to the observed preference of rich countries for free trade over free migration we provide an explanation for this inconsistency the redistribution policies in the countries social welfare in countries with a relatively small number of low skilled native workers is higher with free trade than with free migration due to redistribution of income towards immigrating workers

images of globalisation in the mass media increasing flows of goods capital and labour across various national borders have signalled the ever increasing integration or globalisation of international markets the impacts of globalisation are complex and multidimensional and have been intensely debated in the academic literature likewise globalisation and its impacts have also gained attention in the mass media yet findings on the way globalisation has been portrayed in the mass media are mixed in this paper we examine the conceptual evolution and overall progression of tone of globalisation coverage in the associated press from 1984 to 2004 we find that ap reporters have weaved a number of key themes in their stories growth and efficiency poverty employment environment and migration among others more over we find balance in reporting to the extent that both sides of an argument are presented in an article however in absolute terms reporting is skewed in favour or against a specific issue depending on story narrative employed our empirical results go some way to reconciling why news organisations feel they present balanced and objective coverage while proponents and opponents on a specific issue feel that coverage is biased one way or the other

have air pollutant emissions converged among u s regions evidence from unit root tests previous studies of income distribution have found evidence indicating that incomes across u s regions have converged supporting the prediction of the neoclassical growth model a potential shortcoming in these studies is that only one measure of well being is considered a measure of wealth linked to incomes or production this paper examines whether income convergence was accompanied by air pollutant emission convergence results from unit root tests provide some evidence that indicators of environmental quality have converged across u s regions during the 1929 1994 period

the persistence and inefficiency of property tax finance of local public expenditures abstract i both characterize and evaluate equilibrium outcomes in multiple jurisdiction economies with property and land taxation but where direct taxation of residents is not possible the model contains perfectly mobile capital and population and competitive entrepreneurial governments that choose local taxes and expenditures to maximize after tax land rent when the cost of public goods is proportional to population the property tax emerges as the sole source of local finance even though the land tax has no deadweight loss it is shown that equilibria are not constrained efficient in general hence decentralized decision making is not consistent with the best use of the available tax instruments

do local governments use their tax bases efficiently abstract this paper analyzes an economy with multiple governments and with mobility of individuals across jurisdictions where each government is constrained to raise revenue for public expenditures using distortionary taxes a government is said to be competitive if the total benefits and costs of its decisions including the excess burden are perceived to be internalized the competitive equilibrium allocations are not constrained efficient in general there exists another set of distortionary taxes and public expenditures such that when private sector behavior adjusts to maintain equilibrium all individuals in the economy are better off thus competitive decentralized decision making does not lead to an efficient use of the available tax instruments it is also shown that the source of the failure can be interpreted as a missing market and the form of the best decentralized remedy which involves pricing the tax base is derived

the narrow moving band the dutch disease and the competitive consequences of mrs thatcher notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies abstract this paper presents a model of trade in which comparative advantage instead of being determined by underlying attributes of countries evolves over time through learning by doing in this model arbitrary patterns of specialization once established tend to become entrenched over time the model sheds light on three widely held views that do not make sense in more conventional models first is the view that temporary protection of selected sectors can permanently alter the pattern of comparative advantage in the protecting country s favor second is the view that seemingly favorable developments such as the discovery of exportable natural resources may lead to a permanent loss of other sectors and reduce welfare in the long run third is the possibility that a temporary overvaluation of a currency due to tight money can lead to a permanent loss of competitiveness in some sectors

estimating multiple discrete choice models an application to computerization returns buyers in many markets face multiple discrete choices they can purchase multiple units as well as multiple brands at the same time this paper presents a multiple discrete choice model for the analysis of differentiated products demand users maximize profits by choosing the number of units of each brand they purchase i estimate the model using micro level data on the demand for personal computers i use the estimated demand structure to assess the welfare gains from computerization and technological innovation in peripherals the estimated return on investment in personal computers is 92 moreover a 10 increase in the performance to price ratio of microprocessors leads to a 2 2 gain in the estimated user surplus the personal computer pc market is of interest to industrial organization economists because of its size the continual technological change and above all because of the farreaching implications of pcs on the economy as a whole several distinct features make pc demand difficult to model pcs are a differentiated durable good in constant technological evolution moreover buyers make multiple discrete choices firms according to our data spread their purchases of pcs over different brands at the same time they buy pcs in blocks several units of each brand that they have chosen the aim of the paper is to present a model that captures these features and to use this model to estimate the welfare gains from computerization classical discrete choice models allow one choice among mutually exclusive alternatives in contrast the proposed framework allows users to demand multiple units and multiple brands the model can be applied to other cases of multiple discrete choices e g the composition of airline fleets car holdings per household the fields of the faculty in economics departments household cereals consumption or any other good consumed in more than one variety during a relevant time period although pervasive multiple discrete choice problems have received little attention because of their complexity a central issue regarding the pc market is the current controversy in the economics literature about the computerization puzzle this puzzle stems from the empirical finding that computerization has had no effect on firm productivity griliches and siegel 1991 and morrison and berndt 1990 contrary to those results hendel 1994 and lichtenberg 1995 using more disaggregate data than most previous studies report excess returns to computerization this indicates that data aggregation may have created the computerization puzzle in this paper i present a model consistent with the basic

do insurance activities enhance the performance of financial services holding companies stiroh and rumble 2006 and yeager et al 2007 have argued that extension of banks into nonbanking activities produces no diversification benefits for financial services holding companies fshcs eligible to consolidate banking and insurance products we investigate the effect of aggregate nonbank activities as well as two main areas of insurance business namely agency and underwriting enterprise on the risk adjusted performance of fshcs our sample includes a quarterly panel data of fshcs over the period 2003 2011 we find that the effect of fshcs entry into agency insurance activities on their risk adjusted returns is dependent on their size it is positive for fshcs in the top quartile of our sample assets greater than 4 495 billions but negative for smaller and mid size fshcs the effect of underwriting insurance activities on risk adjusted returns is generally negative or statistically insignificant except for some of the largest size firms

factor movements and commodity trade as complements abstract several models are presented in which factor mobility leads to an increase in the volume of world trade the models share the common characteristic that the basis for trade is something other than differences in relative factor endowments these alternative bases for trade include returns to scale imperfect competition production and factor taxes and differences in production technology taken together the models suggest a more general idea the widely held notion that trade in goods and factors are substitutes is in fact a rather special result which is a general characteristic only of factor proportions models

computers productivity and input substitution i introduction the last two decades has been a puzzling time for many productivity analysts while computer prices fell at extraordinary rates and firms invested hundreds of billions of dollars in new computer equipment aggregate productivity growth remained sluggish this computer productivity paradox has generated a large literature that examines the economic impact of the computer revolution 1 this paper offers a simple solution to the computer productivity paradox by making careful distinction between computers as an output from one sector and an input to other sectors data for 35 manufacturing and service sectors for 1947 1991 show that sectoral differences are crucial in understanding the impact of computers aggregate analysis is inappropriate since it obscures basic distinctions between a shifting production function in the computer producing sector multi factor productivity growth and movements along production functions in the computer using sectors substitution and capital accumulation once these differences are isolated the growth impact of computers is readily observable the computer producing sector experienced fundamental technological progress and now produces cheaper better computers the sectoral data show this as rapid multi factor productivity mfp growth for 1973 1991 although aggregate mfp growth remains below historic averages the computer producing sector has clearly done its part mfp growth in this sector is many times the economy average and has contributed over one third of aggregate mfp growth for 19811991 the sectoral detail shows that the slowdown in aggregate productivity would have been much more severe were it not for such large mfp gains in the computer producing sector for the other sectors of the economy computers affect growth in a more traditional although less glamorous way when the price of real computing power fell so dramatically in the 1970s and 1980s firms responded by substituting away from relatively expensive labor and non computer capital and investing heavily in cheap computers for these sectors the computer revolution affects output growth not by raising mfp but by inducing firms to accumulate computers at extraordinary rates real computer services for example grew in excess of 20 per year in 14 out of 35 sectors for 1973 1991 although virtually all sectors are rapidly accumulating computer equipment computers remain small in levels in 1991 for example computer investment was only 10 of private fixed investment so the growth contribution of computers remains small relative to sectoral aggregates of labor and non computer capital the rapid rates of accumulation however are clearly making computers a more important source of growth across sectors with this heavy investment also came the wide spread expectation that computers would fundamentally alter the way firms operate and lead to higher mfp the reality has been very different as the most computer intensive sectors show steep declines in mfp growth after 1973 with three quarters of all computers concentrated in three service sectors trade fire and other services however this finding must be interpreted with caution as griliches 1994 notes output in these sectors is largely unmeasurable and thus mfp growth will be understated nonetheless it is quite reasonable that even computer using sectors where output is easier to measure show no mfp gains computer investment creates a capital input that enters the production function like any other purchased input since constant quality deflators embody productivity improvements in investment the direct impact is seen through the rapid capital accumulation only if the adoption of computers leads to production externalities or spillovers would computer investment also increase mfp growth the data however show no evidence of this ii computers and growth the national statistics most clearly show the computer revolution in the investment data

globalization trade and income my purpose in this paper is to address two questions that confront our discipline repeatedly these days first what is a useful classification of the symptoms and the determinants of globalization a phase used in a remarkable variety of contexts to economists globalization is generally thought of as the increasing internationalization of the production distribution and marketing of goods and services the term is used less precisely in the popular literature perhaps best exemplified by kenichi ohmae s book the borderless world and when used loosely it invokes a wide variety of political sociological environmental and economic trends that are the concern of media attention almost daily however one defines globalization it is surely a development that is having a profound impact on the subject of economics as a whole and ought to have on the field of international economics in particular my second purpose is to ask how globalization is affecting our profession s view of theory and empirical work in international economics traditional trade theory was concerned with a set of fairly well defined questions regarding the determinants of trade the pattern of trade and the welfare consequences of various trade policy instruments the last two decades and perhaps the last decade in particular has led to a much wider interpretation of what living in an open economy means the change that is occurring on a wide range of economic social scientific and

nimby taxes matter the case of state hazardous waste disposal taxes this paper links the theoretical and empirical literatures on interjurisdictional tax and regulatory competition focusing on the case of state hazardous waste disposal taxes it begins by demonstrating that local environmental taxes can be inefficient and that the inefficiency depends on the tax elasticity of polluters responses the paper then uses panel data from the toxics release inventory to estimate the magnitude of the tax elasticities and to demonstrate the empirical relevance of the theoretical inefficiency of local taxes 1999 elsevier science s a all rights reserved

investigating and comparing the dynamic patterns of the business value of information technology over time abstract the long debated issue of the business value of information technology it to the firm country has received a great deal of attention in the literature but the studies have rarely examined the dynamic patterns of the it value as measured by the firm s productive efficiency over time the objective of this paper is to apply the three factor constant elasticity of substitution ces time varying stochastic production frontier models and use the same data set as used in several previous studies to investigate the dynamic patterns of it value over time in connection with the issues of inputs substitution and complement and the productivity paradox this paper adopts two analytical skills collective and individual to analyze the empirical results collectively we find that the dynamic patterns of it value are closely related to the substitution and complement of three inputs and the it productivity paradox individually we identify five common dynamic patterns of the it value measured by productive efficiency and interpret their implications for the productivity paradox as summarized in a two by two matrix of practical applications and strategies this matrix accounts for four different scenarios of the relationship between the average productive efficiency and the it productivity paradox illustrates some practical applications by the analytical results and provides some business insights and managerial strategies for it decision makers and po is managers this represents a new contribution to the understanding of the dynamic influence of it investments upon the value of it over time

citicorp travelers group merger challenging barriers between banking and insurance abstract the citicorp travelers group merger increased the prospects for new legislation to remove the barriers between banking and insurance resulting in a positive wealth effect for institutions most likely to gain from deregulation analysis of abnormal returns surrounding the merger show that life insurance companies and large banks excluding citicorp and travelers group have significant stock price increases while the returns of small banks health insurers and property casualty insurers are insignificantly different from 0 this analysis provides evidence that investors expect large banks and insurance companies to receive significant benefits from recent congressional legislation removing barriers to bancassurance

technological and organisational change in a process of industrial rejuvenation the case of the italian cotton textile industry the coevolution of technological and organizational change shapes modernization in mature industries only large vertically integrated managerial firms can bear the delays between the adoption of new information technologies and their positive effects on productivity growth a feature of the italian cotton industry is the highly specialized colocalized family owned small firm that is functionally organized it emerged in the 1970s to cope with the introduction of technological changes such as shuttleless looms and open end spinning this structure risks delaying the successful implementation of technological innovations an industrial policy aimed at the adoption of both technological and organizational change could counterbalance the trend toward decline copyright 1998 by oxford university press

increasing returns to scale and the pattern of trade abstract when realization of increasing returns to scale irs requires geographic concentration formation of cities whose optimal size is limited by commutation costs results if this size is small relative to the population of a country then efficiency of city formation rather than country size dictates comparative advantage with respect to irs goods under restrictive assumptions it can even be shown in a ricardian model with cities that ratios of labor requirement coefficients alone rank goods in comparative advantage order so that country size and the degree of increasing returns displayed by any good are irrelevant to the pattern of trade

imperfect mobility and local government behaviour in an overlapping generations model abstract this paper reconsiders the implications of land value maximizing local governments in an overlapping generations model with imperfect mobility specifically residents develop an attachment to place or location specific capital once they reside in a town for a single time period the analysis shows that attempts by governments to capture the resulting rents from less mobile individuals create inefficient migration leave all workers worse off in an ex ante sense and place relatively high burdens on those workers who have high migration costs public good levels are also inefficiently chosen

does product complexity matter for firms output volatility abstract with this paper we provide the first micro level evidence on the linkage between firm complexity and volatility by defining product complexity a la hausmann and hidalgo 2009 we find that a higher complexity level of a firm s product basket is associated to a reduction of its output fluctuations this evidence is robust to the control for omitted variables sample selection and to the use of alternative volatility and complexity indicators across similar firms active in different sectors and regions both technological factors and product market conditions explain the effect of complexity on volatility however within narrowly defined sectors and locations the complexity volatility nexus fully reflects the role of the human capital content of firms product baskets

risk sharing role of foreign aid in developing countries abstractthe effects of foreign aid on economic growth have been extensively investigated over the past 40 years however even though foreign aid can be a significant source of insurance against do

innovation r d cooperation and labor recruitment evidence from finland this article investigates the role played by one type of firm interaction namely rd rd and labor acquisition appears to be only of limited importance for innovation

imperfect tax competition for profits asymmetric equilibrium and beneficial tax havens abstract we present a model of tax competition for real investment and profits and show that the presence of tax havens in some cases increases the tax revenue of countries in the first part of the paper we argue that tax competition for profits is likely to be imperfect in the sense that the jurisdiction with the lowest tax rate does not necessarily attract all shifted profits under this assumption tax competition between a large number of identical countries may lead to either a symmetric equilibrium with no profit shifting or an asymmetric equilibrium where firms shift profits from high tax to low tax countries in the second part of the paper we introduce tax havens starting from a symmetric equilibrium tax havens unambiguously reduce the tax revenue of countries due to a leakage effect tax havens attract tax base from countries and a competition effect the optimal response to the increased tax sensitivity of tax bases involves a reduction of tax rates starting from an asymmetric equilibrium however tax havens also raise the tax revenue of countries through a crowding effect tax havens make it less attractive to compete for profits and thus induce low tax countries to become high tax countries we demonstrate that the latter effect may dominate the former effects so that countries on balance benefit from the presence of tax havens

comparative advantage complexity and volatility abstract less developed countries tend to experience higher output volatility a fact that is in part explained by their specialization in more volatile sectors this paper proposes theoretical explanations for this pattern of specialization with the complexity of the goods playing a central role specifically less developed countries with lower institutional ability to enforce contracts or alternately with low levels of human capital will specialize in less complex goods which are also characterized by higher levels of output volatility we provide novel empirical evidence that less complex industries are indeed more volatile

the microeconomics of manufacturing modernization programs abstract manufacturing modernization programs are designed to improve the competitiveness of small and medium sized manufacturers by accelerating their use of best practice technologies justification for these programs is most often cast in terms of past slow rates of adoption international economic competitiveness and market failures in the provision of information these frameworks however do not adequately address policy and programmatic issues related to program design financing and program evaluation using a microeconomic model based on the firm and industry level effects of these programs we examine the importance of spillover benefits from modernization efforts both horizontal spillovers to rivals of program clients and vertical spillovers to clients customers and the implications for these policy and programmatic issues

trade capital mobility and tax competition this paper examines a system of governments national state or local that finance public expenditures with taxes on mobile capital e g a property tax unlike previous research on tax competition explicit consideration is given to the general equilibrium determination of the prices at which goods are traded between regions the analysis identifies inefficiencies in government behavior that are not apparent in models in which the terms of trade are exogenously given capital taxation is shown to create an inefficient distribution of public good outputs across regions accompanied by an inefficient pattern of trade a model is presented in which the chosen levels of public good outputs differ across regions containing identical residents and production possibilities there is a wasteful diversity of public good supplies

home bias and international risk sharing twin puzzles separated at birth abstract we document that international home bias in debt and equity holdings declined during the period 1993 2003 at the same time as international risk sharing increased using panel data regressions for oecd countries we demonstrate that less home bias is associated with more international risk sharing more generally we show that more financial integration is associated with more risk sharing when we measure financial integration as the ratio of foreign assets to gross domestic product our results indicate that risk sharing and international financial integration are closely related empirical phenomena

do financial conglomerates create or destroy value evidence for the eu there is an ongoing debate about whether firm focus creates or destroys shareholder value earlier literature has shown significant diversification discounts firms that engage in multiple activities are valued lower various factors are important in determining the size of the discount for example cross subsidization and agency problems the existing literature however generally focuses on non financial firms or on banks combining investment and commercial banking our paper focuses specifically on the valuation of bank insurance conglomerates we find no universal diversification discount but significant variability the discount is explained by the size increasing the familiarity with the conglomerate business model decreasing and the risk profile decreasing our results are robust to the historical origin the merger record and the age of the conglomerate as well as peer group specification and outlier elimination

trade in a tiebout economy the purpose of this paper is to explore both the positive and normative aspects of commodity trade in a tiebout economy by tiebout economy i mean an economy with a large number of small regions for example communities or states and no impediments to the mobility of individuals between these regions this type of economy has received widespread attention since the appearance of charles tiebout s classic 1956 article on local public goods in part because it bears a close relation to the standard competitive model this relation suggests that tiebout economies may serve as an

risk sharing from international factor income explaining cross country differences access to world capital markets and net investment income flows between countries help protect national income from country specific output shocks i empirically study what factors explain cross country differences in the extent of risk sharing from international factor income an index of investor protection is the leading causal variable for the estimated amount of risk sharing over the 1985 to 2004 period improving investor protection in russia to denmark s level implies five times larger risk sharing compared to the sample average these results indicate one possible way to reap large potential benefits from international risk sharing

analyzing the relationships between information technology inputs substitution and national characteristics based on ces stochastic frontier production models abstract this research examines four interrelated issues at the country level the value of information technology it inputs substitution and complement the complementarity phenomenon created by it and national characteristics and the productivity paradox jointly and critically from a global perspective using the so called productive efficiency as the performance measure to that end we develop the three factor constant elasticity of substitution ces stochastic production frontier model and apply it to a set of panel data from 15 countries over the period 1993 2003 along with the traditional two factor ces models within the one and two equation frameworks in the two equation setting six national characteristics are selected as the contributing factors of the productive efficiency the findings include i the value of it as measured by the productive efficiency is duly recognized ii the productivity paradox is found to be absent from the production process in a majority of developed and developing countries considered rejecting the existing argument that the paradox exists only in developing economies but does not exist in developed countries however the developed countries have used it capital in their production systems more productively efficiently than the developing nations iii traditional capital non it capital traditional labor and it capital are not pairwise substitutable contrary to the notion that they are pairwise substitutable at the firm level iv constant returns to scale as commonly assumed are not supported by the data v different national characteristics affect a country s output represented by gross domestic product or gdp and its productive efficiency differently and vi the complementarity phenomenon is observed in most of the countries developed and developing under study

computing productivity firm level evidence we explore the effect of computerization on productivity and output growth using data from 527 large us firms over 1987 1994 we find that computerization makes a contribution to measured productivity and output growth in the short term using one year differences that is consistent with normal returns to computer investments however the productivity and output contributions associated with computerization are up to five times greater over long periods using five to seven year differences the results suggest that the observed contribution of computerization is accompanied by relatively large and time consuming investments in complementary inputs such as organizational capital that may be omitted in conventional calculations of productivity the large long run contribution of computers and their associated complements that we uncover may partially explain the subsequent investment surge in computers in the late 1990s

a political economic analysis of labor migration and income redistribution we present a two country political economic model of income redistribution with internationally mobile labor migration can be exogenous and or endogenous i e determined by labor income differentials political influence is determined by the size and homogeneity of the groups where the latter can be affected by immigration we show that immigration can increase the transfers to and the income of the mobile group we also investigate the possibility of migration regulation tax transfer policy competition and coordination and finally coordination of regulation policies it is shown that the selection of any of those regimes will depend on the particular distribution of political influence among the relevant social groups in the two countries

the structure of technology in a multioutput branch banking firm we formulate and estimate a multioutput bank s cost function amenable for distinguishing between economies of scale and economies of network density we find significant returns to network density especially for smaller banks diseconomies of scale are found for the larger banks whereas the hypothesis of constant returns to scale could not be rejected for the smaller banks

the division of labor coordination costs and knowledge this paper considers specialization and the division of labor a more extensive division of labor raises productivity because returns to the time spent on tasks are usually greater to workers who concentrate on a narrower range of skills the traditional discussion of the division of labor emphasizes the limitations to specialization imposed by the extent of the market we claim that the degree of specialization is more often determined by other considerations especially emphasized are various costs of coordinating specialized workers who perform complementary tasks and the amount of general knowledge available