mill political economy and women s work the sexual division of labor and the social and economic value of women s work in the home has been a problem that scholars have struggled with at least since the advent of the second wave women s movement but it has never entered into the primary discourses of political science this paper argues that john stuart mill s political economy provides innovative and useful arguments that address this thorny problem productive labor is essential to mill s conception of property and property was vital to women s independence in mill s view yet since mill thought most women would choose the career of wife and mother rather than working for wages then granting that work productive status would provide a radical and inventive foundation for women s equality mill however is ambiguous about the productive status of domestic labor and is thereby representative of a crucial failure in political economic thought as well as in egalitarian liberal thought on gender but because mill at the same time develops a conception of production that goes well beyond the narrow limits offered by other prominent political economists he offers contemporary political scientists and theorists a way to rethink the relationship of reproductive to productive labor the requirements for gender equality and the accepted categories of political economy

retrospectives classical family values ending the poor laws as they knew them poor law reform in the early 1830s provides a key example of the deep conflicts between classical liberal principles of self reliance and the realities of dependency eminent economists such as nassau senior and thomas malthus argued that the dependency of women and children calls forth and motivates its own support from the altruism of husbands and fathers like modern welfare reformers the classical economists asserted the natural necessity and sufficiency of such dependency and ignored its powerful implications for the intergenerational perpetuation of a highly illiberal inequality of opportunity

secular and cyclical responses of u s trade to income an evaluation of traditional models in the three decades since guy orcutt s 1950 classic paper evaluating empirical research on international trade flows most trade research has focused on the influence of prices in the decade since the benchmark study by houthakker and magee 1969 examination of the role of prices has accelerated although income is consistently the most significant explanatory variable in these studies it is typically introduced only as a background control variable rather than as a variable of central interest the few explicit studies of the link from income to trade either use proxies such as delivery lags and inventory ratios to investigate the dynamics of the link e g gregory 1971 and artus 1973 or decompose income into trend deviation from trend and in one instance change in deviation from trend in an attempt to separate the secular and business cycle components e g ball eaton and steuer 1966 khan and ross 1975 and dunlevy 1980 stephen magee 1975 pp 188 193 211 214 provides a persuasive rationale for at least the spirit of the second line of research arguing that trade flows respond differently to secular and business cycle income changes and that regression estimates with income in level form mix these effects time domain decomposition is now an established practice with the trend response identified with secular forces like comparative advantage hence could be positive or negative in either demand or supply the deviation from trend response with a business cycle keynesian mechanism hence is likely to be positive in demand and negative in supply and the change in deviation from trend response with a sneed of adjustment constraint hence is likely to be negative the most recent evidence bearing on these issues is provided by dunlevy 1980 who finds that the effect of the business cycle income proxy deviation fromtrend income on the supply of exports for the united states and the united kingdom is positive rather than negative evidence contradicting both theory and evidence in earlier capacity pressure studies in this paper we first evaluate traditional regression estimates of income elasticities of demand and supply for u s imports and exports from 1955 to 1979 then compare these estimates to cross spectral estimates of the secular and business cycle responses of trade to income the spectral technique is used because by definition the approach estimates separately the secular and business cycle links between trade and income if the response of trade to movements in income does differ over cycles regression estimates of income elasticities may reflect bias and instability due to cycle varying parameters regression elasticity estimates with income in trend and deviation from trend forms do provide separate estimates but the decomposition is useful only to the degree that the two variables are accurate proxies for secular and business cycle movements in income it should be emphasized that we are not using spectral analysis to detect lead lag properties since these are more directly obtained in the time domain and are relatively trivial for our sample the unique advantage of spectral analysis is that it isolates secular and business cycle components directly even when the time domain link is only contemporaneous the paper is organized as follows section ii presents and evaluates time domain estimates of standard demand and supply equations for u s imports and exports and presents caveats regarding interpretation of the trend and deviationfrom trend income variables section iii proreceived for publication march 4 1981 revision accepted for publication may 12 1982 university of oregon an earlier draft of this paper was presented at the fall 1980 north american meeting of the econometric society we acknowledge helpful comments from s y kwack john mutti and two anonymous referees we also thank john pippenger for supplying the spectral program specx68 and the university of oregon for a faculty research grant remaining errors are solely ours i application of spectral methods to investigate trade income links was first suggested by ball eaton and steuer 1966 p 503 they were unable to use the technique however because the data series available at that time were too short

determinants of international trade flows this paper models and estimates import demand and demand for export functions for 19 industrial countries although primary emphasis is placed on the period of generalized floating exchange rates 1972 through 1980 estimates are also provided for the fixed exchange rate years 1957 1970 thus making possible a comparison between the two eras aside from the conventional income and price variables the paper assesses the effect of variations in the exchange rate and in the expected exchange rate on real trade flows additionally it estimates an unrestricted lag structure of the effect of price and exchange rate variations on imports

impact of trade liberalization on import demands in india a panel data analysis for commodity groups the objectives of this study are to examine the impact of liberalization on price elasticities of imports at a commodity level for broad commodity groups and at an aggregate level for the indian economy over the period 1993 1997 liberalization is implemented by reducing tariff and non tariff barriers and relaxing exchange controls the impact of tariffs and market based exchange rate is introduced in the import price of the commodity relative price import domestic elasticities for each commodity group using panel data of six countries over five years are estimated for the indian economy relative price elasticities for each of the years at an aggregate level using data for twenty commodity groups as observations are obtained and these show that the price elasticity tends to rise with the increase in liberalization when tariff rates are reduced

an empirical evaluation of the macroeconomic effects of tarrifs abstract the macroeconomic effects of unilateral tariff changes are reviewed in a variety of theoretical models it is shown that there is no theoretical presumption about the effects of tariffs on output or the trade balance five different data sets are found to be consistent with the hypothesis that tariff changs have no significant effects on the real exchange rate the real trade balance and real output both foreign and domestic tariff rates do appear to have a negative effect on the gross volume of international trade jel f13 f40

long run price elasticities and the marshall lerner condition revisited abstract in estimating trade elasticities most previous researchers employed nonstationary data and ols or 2sls method with new developments in the literature this paper uses stationary data and johansen s cointegration analysis to provide new trade elasticities for almost 30 countries

the impact of trade liberalisation on exports imports and the balance of payments of developing countries this paper uses panel data and times series cross section analysis to estimate the effect of trade liberalisation on export growth import growth the balance of trade and the balance of payments for a sample of 22 developing countries that have adopted trade liberalisation policies since the mid 1970s we find that liberalisation stimulated export growth but raised import growth by more leading to a worsening of the balance of trade and payments to the extent that this has constrained the growth of output and living standards the findings have important implications for the sequencing and degree of liberalisation

the determinants of import demand in trinidad and tobago 1967 84 1988 the determinants of import demand in trinidad and tobago 1967 84 applied economics vol 20 no 3 pp 303 313

export response to trade liberalization in bangladesh a cointegration analysis this paper investigates the response of bangladesh s aggregate merchandise exports to a real exchange rate based trade liberalization programme during the period 1974 1995 the cointegration and error correction modelling approaches have been applied the empirical results suggest that there exists a unique long run or equilibrium relationship among real quantities of export relative export price and export weighted real effective exchange rate the short term dynamic behaviour of bangladesh s export supply has been investigated by estimating an error correction model in which the error correction term has been found to be correctly signed and statistically significant relative export price lagged two quarters real effective exchange rate predicted values of real gdp lagged one quarter and a dummy variable capturing the effects of trade liberalization programme have all emerged as important determinants of an aggregate export supply function for bangladesh the error correction model has also been

price and income elasticities of disaggregated import demand results from uecms and an application this paper presents an empirical analysis of the demand for maize milk powder butter and rice imports in cyprus using annual time series data covering the period 1975 1994 none of these products is produced in cyprus and all the necessary quantities are imported to meet domestic demand the primary objective of the paper is to derive long run price and income elasticities of import demand that can be used to analyse the impact of various policies such as the adoption of the common agricultural policy cap when and if the republic of cyprus joins the european union eu in so doing the paper takes on board some recent developments in time series econometrics the cointegration test used the bounds test is a recent test and is based on the estimation of an unrestricted error correction model uecm parsimonious models were derived using hendry s general to specific approach the estimated elasticities were subsequently used to quantify some of the implications for cyprus had the cap been ope

the determinants of import demand in pakistan abstract this paper examines the factors influencing the demand for pakistan s imports during the period from 1959 1960 to 1985 1986 a general approach is used to determine empirically the appropriate formulation of the import demand functions and leads to the choice of the loglinear form the estimated price and income elasticities are distinctly different from those of the developed and middle income countries

a duopolistic model of dynamic competitive advertising abstract this paper proposes a differential game model of competitive advertising decisions for non durable products by extending the lanchester model and the deal model of competitive advertising in the literature the proposed model is compared empirically with the lanchester model for model fitting and forecast accuracy it is shown that the model is suitable for an actual market and out performs the lanchester model in forecast accuracy the model provides a sensible modeling alternative to the lanchester model for the study of dynamic competitive advertising decisions necessary and sufficient conditions for open loop and closed loop nash equilibrium solutions to the model are discussed a numerical algorithm for open loop and closed loop nash strategies to the model is developed

determinants of international trade flows the case of developing countries abstract the question of magnitude and the time path of the trade flows to changes in the exchange rates and to changes in the price level is of emitent practical importance to assess the above proposition a distributed lag structure is imposed on the relative prices and on the effective exchange rate as the determinants of trade flows then import and export demand functions are estimated for a sample of developing countries using the almon procedure the empirical findings appeared to sustain orcutt s early conjecture that trade flows adjust differently to different price stimuli more precisely it was found that imports and exports reactions were quicker and the total response time was shorter when an exchange rate rather than relative prices caused a change in international prices

trade liberalisation and export performance in selected developing countries this article examines the impact of trade liberalisation on export growth for a sample of 22 developing economies the research applies dynamic panel data models based on fixed effects and generali

analysis of global bifurcations in a market share attraction model in this paper we demonstrate how the global dynamics of an economic model can be analyzed in particular as an application we consider a market share attraction model widely used in the analysis of interbrand competition in marketing theory we analyze the local and global dynamic properties of the resulting two dimensional noninvertible dynamical system in discrete time the main result of this paper is given by the study of some global bifurcations that change the structure of the attractors and their basins these bifurcations are investigated by the use of critical curves a powerful tool for the analysis of the global properties of noninvertible two dimensional maps 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved jel classixcation e32 m30

pulsation in a competitive model of advertising firm s cost interaction the literature reveals contradiction between theoretical results superiority of uniform policy under a concave advertising response function and empirical results concavity of the advertising response function and the superiority of a pulsation policy to reconcile the above difference this paper offers a resolution based on 1 the concavity of the advertising response function 2 the convexity of the firm s cost function and 3 over advertising the resolution is reached upon maximizing the net profit per unit time over the infinite planning horizon subject to an exogenous advertising budget constraint theoretical results for monopolistic markets are found mostly generalized to competitive markets a numerical example is introduced to gain more insight into the theoretical findings and an approach is introduced and implemented to empirically assess the shape of a firm s cost function and the advertising policy to be employed

real and nominal effective exchange rates for developing countries 1973 1 1997 3 the international monetary fund construct and publish real and nominal effective exchange rate data mostly for developed countries in this paper real and nominal effective rate data for developing countries are constructed application of the kpss test to real effective rate data reveals that ppp holds in most countries

estimates of a traditional aggregate import demand model for five countries abstract in this paper we show for five advanced economics that if the variables in the aggregate import demand relationship are best described as non stationary integrated process then the traditional estimates of the income and price elasticity will be subject to substantial upward bias

a model of advertising competition using a dynamic model of advertising rivalry between competitors in a duopoly the author obtains analytical results for the case of pure market share rivalry in a mature market a more general mod

trade liberalization and trade performance of environmental goods evidence from asia pacific economic cooperation members in this article we study the impact of trade liberalization including reductions in both tariff and nontariff trade barriers on environmental goods egs exports using bilateral trade data from 20 asia pacific economic cooperation members we find that tariff reduction in an exporting country has a larger positive impact on its exports of egs than tariff reduction in an importing country our results also show that a lower nontariff barrier in an importing country increases its imports of egs a considerable amount of heterogeneity also exists in subsample results based on countries income levels

making nama work supporting adjustment and development nama liberalisation alone will not be sufficient to achieve the development goals of the doha round the structure of developing countries economies and weaknesses in their infrastructure and institutions mean that adjustment to liberalisation is often costly and export responses slow to make nama work developing countries will need technical and financial support to raise their ability to adapt to greater openness and globalisation pressures and to increase their export capabilities although developing countries should decide how to raise their ability to adjust and to increase exports bilateral donors and multilateral agencies will need to fund nama support programmes the wto however is not the appropriate or competent international agency to provide or disburse such funding it can provide technical advice and offers a negotiating vehicle for industrial countries to signal that the development aims of the doha round are recognised in substantive terms if industrial countries support developing countries nama related adjustment costs in addition to offering nama tariff cuts the chances of a successful doha agreement and genuine pro development outcomes will be boosted significantly

is there an empirical link between trade liberalisation and export performance abstract a panel data approach is used to investigate both the steady state and the transitional impact of trade liberalisation on export performance within a sample of selected oecd countries the results find trade policy to be a largely insignificant determinant of export performance domestic competitiveness and world demand are found to be the most consistent drivers of export performance in both forms of the model for the sample countries with domestic demand having a significant negative impact in the dynamic model

trade and consumption of energy varieties empirical analysis of selected west africa economies abstract this paper examined the relationship between consumption of energy varieties total electricity and road transport and trade export and import in selected west african countries data spanning 1971 to 2010 was used to estimate vector error correction models vecm for 6 countries based on data availability empirical analysis showed that there is insignificant linkage between consumption of energy varieties and export of benin however there is a one way positive linkage running from energy varieties to import of the country for cote d ivoire energy varieties have insignificant relationship with export and import however while inverse relationship runs from export to both electricity and road transport energy consumption positive direct association runs from import to total energy and transport energy consumption with respect to ghana positive causality runs from electricity and road transport energy consumption to export however there is a significant positive feedback effect between import and electricity as well as road transport energy consumption for nigeria there is a significant positive link running from both electricity and road transport energy consumption to export and import senegal s case suggests a bi directional inverse linkage between export and total energy consumption for togo both export and import are insignificantly linked with energy use these mixed findings generate different policy implications across the selected west african countries which are well articulated in the paper

on the superiority of pulsing under a concave advertising market potential function abstract the authors study the superiority of advertising pulsing policy turning advertising on and off in a cyclic fashion over its uniform constant spending counterpart that costs the same under the assumption that sales dynamics follow a modified vidale wolfe aggregate advertising model the authors show that pulsing can be superior if the product of the concave market potential function and the linear or concave advertising response function is convex in advertising similar to previous studies in the literature the average undiscounted profit over the infinite planning horizon is considered as a performance measure according to which alternative advertising pulsation policies are compared employing a well known data set relating advertising to sales the above convexity requirement is empirically supported and the superiority of pulsing is established numerically the performance of the proposed model is found to be superior to two rival models using a one step ahead forecasting procedure the analytical findings of the study are documented into six theoretical results for which proofs are relegated to a separate appendix managerial implications of the study and directions for future research are also discussed

agoa and apparel who captures the tariff rent in the presence of preferential market access he african growth and opportunity act agoa was signed by presidentclinton in may 2000 and quickly became one of the most high pro lespecial and differential treatment sdt programmes implemented agoaintends to encourage higher levels of trade and direct investment in support ofpositive economic and political developments throughout sub saharan africa us congress 2000 thirty six countries were designated to be eligible for theagoa preferences for 2003 the main feature of agoa like other sdt programmes such as the unitedstates version of the generalised system of preferences gsp is the duty freeaccess granted to certain products however agoa goes beyond the standardgsp provisions and includes a wide range of textiles and apparel in the list ofproducts to receive preferential market access the trade data indicate that asmall group of apparel exporters have been the main bene ciaries of agoapreferences so far and there has not been signi cant change in the exports of anyother product from the eligible countries in this paper we analyse the impact of agoa s preferences on prices re ceived by apparel exporters in a perfectly competitive market with homogeneousgoods exporters who enjoy duty free access should bene t from a price increase

why trade liberalisation is good for growth there are three titles that might have been assigned for this paper 1 why is growth so rapid with outer oriented trade strategies 2 do countries with outer oriented trade strategies grow faster and 3 the one actually assigned they are not the same of the three the first is probably the most difficult to answer the second is a factual question and the empirical demonstration is straightforward sachs and warner 1995 the third by focussing on trade liberalisation implies that developing countries have highly restrictive trade regimes and thus asks if a move away from those regimes is good for growth it is far easier to show why especially over time liberalising a restrictive trade regime is conducive to more rapid growth than it is to show why outer oriented trade strategies have been so highly successful trade strategies and development strategies are closely related and it is useful to start by defining a few terms an import substitution is industrialisation strategy was adopted by most developing countries in the years following the second world war in most cases those countries were then predominantly agricultural and exporters of primary commodities the belief then was that rapid industrialisation was the essential if not the sole feature of economic growth and that only by domestically producing goods then imported could developing countries industrialise 1 under is it was intended to provide protection to new industries during their developmental period until they could compete with their counterparts in industrialised countries in practice the is strategy pulled most new resources into import competing activites with a number of negative consequences discussed later and one result was that export earnings grew less rapidly than the demand for foreign exchange and usually less rapidly even than real gdp an almost universal policy response was then to impose restrictive import licensing in response to foreign exchange shortage the stated reasons for this were the need to conserve scarce foreign exchange for essential developmental needs the outcome was of course a restrictive trade regime for reasons to be discussed below as is strategies continued trade regimes increased in restrictiveness and growth slowed hence to discuss trade liberalisation is to address the removal or at least reduction of incentives for is industrialisation and because again to be discussed below growth spurred under an is industrialisation strategy slows

the adjustment of canadian import demand to changes in income prices and exchange rates the paper provides estimates of the sensitivity of canadian import demand to changes in income prices and exchange rates the model specification allows for the con sideration of long run elasticities as well as the dynamics of short run adjustment of imports to changes in these variables the estimated long run elasticities obtained are similar to those in previous studies it is also shown that canadian imports react quickly to changes in either foreign or domestic prices but that the reaction to changes in exchange rates is much slower

the effects of trade liberalization on imports in selected developing countries abstract this paper analyses the impact of the reduction of tariff and nontariff barriers on the imports of 22 selected developing countries utilizing dynamic panel data techniques domestic income and relative prices are found to be significant determinants of import growth in addition the results indicate that import duties reduce import growth but the effect varies according to the region and the type of trade policy regime existing in the country the results also show that the elimination of trade policy distortions has a strong positive impact on import growth finally it is found that income and price elasticities are higher as a result of trade policy reform

import demand and non tariff barriers the impact of trade liberalization abstract prediction of import response following liberalization measures is a particularly arduous task when extensive quantitative restrictions on imports are present quotas affect the responsiveness of imports to real exchange rates tariffs and activity levels and the combined effects of quotas and other variables are hard to gauge when data are only available for the constrained regime in this paper we show that theoretical results cannot unambiguously sign the effect of quotas on import responsiveness we also estimate on moroccan data import demand equations that take explicit account of the presence of quotas the results suggest that quantity restrictions had a significant impact not only on the level of imports but on their sensitivity to income and price variations as well by estimating the demand for foreign goods under rationing we are also able to predict the behavior of imports in response to the elimination of tariff and non tariff barriers to trade

bilateral trade elasticities this paper estimates income and price elasticities for bilateral world trade in addition to testing the properties of the error terms the dynamic specification and the assumption of parameter constancy the analysis presents the first application of the bank spectrum estimator to bilateral trade flows for all countries the paper finds that bilateral trade elasticities exhibit enough of a dispersion to suggest that the direction of trade is sensitive to changes in income and prices using the bilateral elasticities as raw data the analysis obtains the associated multilateral estimates and finds that they are both consistent with the literature and suitable to addressing questions involving multilateral trade but the evidence also reveals that sole reliance on multilateral elasticities conceals valuable information for both policy applications and empirical analyses of international trade copyright 1990 by mit press

determinants of the demand for imports of venezuela abstract in this study we use disaggregated annual data to estimate real income and relative price elasticities of demand for imports of venezuela after comparing our estimates with those of previous studies we conclude that 1 venezuela has made progress in developing domestic substitutes for imports and 2 the degree of openness in venezuela increased after 1961 we also find evidence that during the period 1974 1979 the increase in the market value of venezuela s oil reserves led to an increase in all categories of imports

income and price elasticities for exports of developing countries income and price elasticities for non oil exports of non opec developing countries play an imp ortant role in the development of policy responses to the debt crisis these elasticities are estimated for the major standard internation al trade classification commodity groups based on two stage least sq uares and quarterly data for 1973 to 1984 the income elasticity for non oil exports ranges between 1 4 and 1 9 the analysis also tests t he properties of the error term the dynamic specification and para metric stability the sensitivity of the results is assessed using sh iller s lags and band spectrum estimation copyright 1988 by mit press

optimal advertising strategies this paper considers advertising policies for a very general class of response functions it is shown that if a pulsing policy is used awareness or sales eventually settle down to a steady cycle and the average response over the cycle is a decreasing function of the length of the cycle when response shows increasing returns to scale it is possible in theory to use a device called chattering to replace the true response by a straight line which lies above the true response in the region in which chattering is used a numerical example is given to show how the optimal policy can be computed when part of the response is linear and the results obtained are compared with those of the best practicable approximation to chattering it is shown that the problem of maximising awareness or sales subject to a budget constraint is structurally identical with maximising profit after advertising with or without a constraint in either case it is possible that for part of the time the optimal policy involves chattering

inequality and the us import demand function in this paper we build a model of trade in vertically differentiated products and find that income inequality can affect the demand for imports even in the presence of homothetic preferences the empirical importance of changes in inequality on the demand for imports is then assessed by examining panel data for 36 developing and developed countries for the 1980 1997 period we find significant evidence supporting our prediction that inequality has a large influence on the demand for imports moreover we find that in line with the predictions of our theoretical model this influence is positive for high income countries countries that produce the high quality variety of the vertically differentiated product and negative for low income countries countries that produce the low quality variety of the vertically differentiated product

a maximin procedure for the optimal insertion timing of ad executions it has been recommended that dominant brands should not suffer from long periods with little or no advertising for such brands in a product category which is not subject to seasonality it is important not to let the minimum effectiveness level fall too low toward this end we present an analytical model for determining the optimal insertion timing pattern of a long run ad campaign which consists of a number of varying executions we develop a computational procedure to calculate the time between the insertions within a pulse in order to maximize the minimum effectiveness level at any point in time the focus of the procedure is to provide conceptual insights and on benchmark solutions which can reduce the computational burden of simulations rather than on providing an exact solution we also provide a theoretical justification for the two common economic axioms of nonsatiation and diminishing marginal returns in the context of an advertising model with exponential forgetting

on continuous time optimal advertising under s shaped response continuous time monopolistic models of advertising expenditure that rely on strict response concavity have been shown to prescribe eventual spending at a constant rate however analyses of discrete analogs have suggested thats shaped response convexity for low expenditure levels may allow for the periodic optima encountered in actual practice casting the dynamic between advertising and sales in a common format an autonomous first order relationship the present paper explores extensions along three dimensions an s shaped response function the value of the discount rate and the possibility of diffusion like response supplementing the treatment by mahajan and muller 1986 a flexible class of s shaped response models is formulated for which it is demonstrated that in contrast to findings in the literature on discretized advertising models continuous periodic optima cannot be supported further a set of conditions on the advertising response function are derived that contains and extends that suggested by sasieni 1971 collectively these results both suggest a set of baseline properties that reasonable models should possess and cast doubt on the ability of first order models to capture effects of known managerial relevance

did the world bank drive tariff reforms in eastern africa this paper explores tariff reform in ethiopia kenya tanzania and uganda between the early 1990s and early 2000s tariffs were reformed in an across the board manner consistent with implementing world bank programs the average tariff was reduced and the dispersion of tariffs was compressed with the highest tariffs being eliminated there is limited evidence of political economy influences on the cross sector pattern of tariffs and reforms except for a tendency to offer greater protection to larger manufacturing sectors in all countries except uganda the technocratic reforms have diluted relative protection and political economy influences in all the four countries

trade diversion under selective preferential market access through its diverse trade preference schemes the european union provides different groups of developing countries with different degrees of market access this paper is the first to demonstrate empirically that such staggered market access induces sizable trade diversion to the detriment of relatively less preferred beneficiary countries in particular preferences granted to african caribbean and pacific economies are shown to impair the export performance of seven developing countries whose products only qualify for basic preferences under the generalized system of preferences exports to the european union decline by about 30 percent if the african caribbean and pacific tariff falls by 10 percentage points in terms of forgone trade volume losses for these relatively disadvantaged countries amount on average to 9 percent of their total trade with the european union depending on the country and its main exports these intra developing country distortions are driven by highly substitutable often labor intensive commodities

terms of trade shocks and the current account in small island developing states abstract the paper investigates the dynamic relationship between external and internal shocks and the current account in selected small islands developing states external shocks defined as terms of trade fluctuations explain a significant proportion of the variation in the current account balances the external shocks have a temporary negative impact on the current account balances with a subsequent improvement generating a j curve type reaction in contrast real output shocks have a positive and significant effect on the current account

planning media schedules in the presence of dynamic advertising quality a key task of advertising media planners is to determine the best media schedule of advertising exposures for a certainbudget conceptually the planner could choose to do continuous advertising i e schedule ad exposures evenly overall weeks or follow a strategy of pulsing i e advertise in some weeks of the year and not at other times previous theoretical analyses have shown that continuous advertising is optimal for nearly all situations however pulsing schedules are very common in practice either the pract ice of pulsing is inappropriate or extant models have not adequately conceptualized the effects of advertising spending over time this paper offers a model that shows pulsing strategies can generate greater total awareness than the continuous advertising when the effectiveness of advertisement i e adquality varies overtime specifically ad quality declines because of advertising wearout during periods of continuous advertising and it restores due to forgetting effects during periods of no advertising such dynamics make it worth while for advertisers to stop advertising when ad quality becomes very low and wait for ad quality to restore beforestarting the next burst again as is common in practice based on the extensive behavioral research on advertising repetition and advertising wearout we extend the classical nerlove and arrow 1962 model by incorporating the notions of repetition wearout copy wearout and ad quality restoration repetition wearout is a result of excessive frequency beca use ad viewers perceive that there is nothing new to be gained from processing the ad they withdraw their attention or they become unmotivated to react to advertising information copy wearout refers to the decline inad quality due to passage of time independent of the level of frequency ad quality restoration is the enhancement of ad quality during media hiatus as a consequence of viewers forgetting the details of the advertised messages thus making ads appear like new when reintroduced later the proposed model has the property that when wearout effects are present a strategy of pulsing is superior to continuous advertising even when the advertising response function is concave this is illustrated by a numerical example that compares the total awareness generated by a single concentrated pulse of varying duration blitz schedules and continuous advertising the even schedule this property can be explained by the tension between the pressure to spend the fixed media budget quickly to avoid copy wearout and the opposing pressure to spread out the media spending over time to mitigate repetition wearout the proposed model is empirically tested by using brand level data from two advertising awareness tracking studies that also include the actual spen ding schedules the first data set is for a major cereal brand while the other is for a brand of milk chocolate such advertising tracking studies are now a common and popular means for evaluating advertising effectiveness in many markets e g millward brown narketmind in the empirical tests the model parameters are estimated by using the kalman filter procedure which is eminently suited for dynamic models because it attends to the intertemporal dependencies in awareness build up and decay via the use of conditional densities the estimated parameters are statistically significant have the expected signs and are meaningful from both theoretical and managerial viewpoints the proposed model fits both the data sets rather well and better than several well known advertising models namely the vidale wolfe brandaid litmus and trackermodels but not decisively better than the nerlove arrow model however unlike the nerlove arrow model the proposed model yields different total awareness for different strategies of spending the same fixed budget thus allowing media planners to discriminate among several media schedules given the empirical support for the model the paper presents an implementable approach for utilizing it to evaluate large numbers of alternative media schedules and determine the best set of media schedules for consideration in media planning this approach is based on an algorithm that combines a genetic algorithm with the kalman filter procedure the paper presents the results of applying this approach in the case studies of the cereal and milk chocolate brands the form of the best advertising spending strategies in each case was a pulsing strategy and there were many schedules that were an improvement over the media schedule actually used in each campaign

elasticities of import demand and economic development the irish experience abstract in their paper on venezuela melo and vogt suggested two hypotheses concerning the relationship between the elasticities of import demand and economic development in this paper these hypotheses are tested in relation to the experience of the republic of ireland which it is argued closely approximated the conditions described by the melo vogt hypotheses both hypotheses are rejected in the case of the republic of ireland where it is argued special factors such as the nature of the development strategy pursued and proximity to a large dominant trading partner undetermined the conditions underlying the melo vogt hypotheses

liberalising foreign trade through rose tinted glasses the foreign trade sector has a crucial role to play in economic development trade has variously been described as the engine or handmaiden of growth this key role has stimulated a great deal of interest in the links between trade and growth with the links between trade orientation and exports and exports and growth receiving particularly close attention alongside this time series work there have been a number of multi country studies of trade policy in developing countries those of krueger i 98 i and balassa i 982 are perhaps the best known most of this work has been directed at two questions first what does the structure of protection look like in a given developing country second are there clear links between the structure of protection trade orientation and economic performance it is widely believed in developing countries that the major lending agencies the world bank in particular perceive a clear link between trade orientation and economic performance and that this explains why around three quarters ofall conditions which attach to structural adjustment loans sals feature reform of trade policy the editors of liberalising foreign trade demetrious papageorgiou michael michaely and armeane choksi all of whom are on the world bank staff clearly believe this to be the case judging from their opening statement the benefits of open trading have by now been sufficiently demonstrated and described by economic historians and analysts in this study we take them for granted and turn our minds from the whether to the how vol i p vii in other words it is the timing phasing and sequencing involved in the design and implementation of a trade liberalisation policy that forms the subject matter of the present study vol 7 p i liberalising foreign trade is a world bank organised study which describes and evaluates 36 liberalisation episodes in i 9 countries during the period i950 i982 the study is ambitious in scale28 authors 3 editors 7 volumes and almost 3 ooo pages of text it is the most comprehensive cross country analysis of liberalisation episodes undertaken from a policy perspective a study of this scale is potentially of considerable interest given the liberalisations

an empirical examination of the structural stability of disaggregated u s import demand we present three related types of evidence on u s import demand first aggregate import demand is reestimated for comparison with previous research second we provide updated estimates of import demand for five economic classes crude foods crude materials manufactured foods semi manufactures and finished manufactures finally each of these import demand functions is tested for any evidence of structural instability and in those cases where instability is detected the demand equations are reestimated along the lines suggested by the stability tests copyright 1989 by mit press

recent developments in dynamic advertising research a variety of continuous time differential functions have been developed to investigate dynamic advertising problems in business and economics fields since major dynamic models appearing before 1995 have been reviewed by a few survey papers we provide a comprehensive review of the dynamic advertising models published after 1995 which are classified into six categories i nerlove arrow model and its extensions ii vidale wolfe model and its extensions iii lanchester model and its extensions iv the diffusion models v dynamic advertising competition models with other attributes and vi empirical studies for dynamic advertising problems for each category we first briefly summarize major relevant before 1995 models and then discuss major after 1995 models in details we find that the dynamic models reviewed in this paper have been extensively used to analyze various advertising problems in the monopoly duopoly oligopoly and supply chain systems our review reveals that the diffusion models have not been used to analyze advertising problems in supply chain operations which may be a research direction in the future moreover we learn from our review that very few publications regarding dynamic advertising problems have considered the supply chain competition we also find that very few researchers have used the diffusion model to investigate the dynamic advertising problems with product quality as a decision variable and the pricing decision has not been incorporated into any extant lanchester model the paper ends with a summary of our review and suggestions on possible research directions in the future

on the generalizability of advertising pulsation monopoly results to an oligopoly this paper introduces for the first time an analytical framework for modeling and analyzing sales response to advertising pulsation for competitive markets of mature products in continuous time for discrete piecewise policies that allow unequal cycle lengths employing a nash equilibrium solution concept this study supported with numerical analysis demonstrates that there is an oligopolistic as opposed to a monopolistic justification for advertising at a constant rate in the presence of concave response functions or advertising according to a pulsing policy in the presence of s shaped response functions the article employs a modeling framework whereby each of a set of competitors responses to advertising spending is governed mainly by lanchester type response is used to analyze the game resulting from cyclical advertising policies that are strictly adhered to by all players a non discounted averaged performance is used to assess the purported optimality of different variants of piecewise constant policies

tariff liberalisation and the growth of world trade a comparative historical analysis of the multilateral trading system the aim of this study is to assess the relationship between tariff barriers and world trade growth from a comparative and historical perspective and at the same time derive some useful indications for the evaluation of the effectiveness of the current multilateral trading system in promoting world trade the distinguishing feature of this work is the complex reconstruction of the historical series for the period 1870 2000 on the tariffs and trade of 23 countries thus constituting a good proxy of world trade for the period considered accounting for over 60 per cent the study of the relationship between tariff liberalization and trade growth was made through an empirical analysis using panel data and time series the empirical results whilst confirming the existence of a long term relationship at world level between tariff reductions and trade growth demonstrate how this substantial and significant relationship in the period prior to world war ii gradually lost importance and significance from 1950 onwards this result does not controvert the role that the gatt wto system has played in trade liberalization but would confirm the arguments of those sustaining the importance of the presence of a formalized multilateral trading system not so much in tariff liberalization but in building a virtuous process of international coordination of trade policies and to ensure a fairer and fuller participation in world trade

the econometrics of elasticities or the elasticity of econometrics an empirical analysis of the behavior of u s imports fifty years of econometric modeling of u s import demand assumes that trade elasticities are autonomous parameters that both cross price effects and simultaneity biases are absent and that expenditures on domestic and foreign goods can be studied independently of each other to relax these assumptions the paper assembles a simultaneous model explaining bilateral u s import volume and prices spending behaves according to the rotterdam model which by design embodies all the properties of utility maximization and does not treat trade elasticities as autonomous parameters pricing behaves according to the pricing to market hypothesis which recognizes exporters incentives to discriminate across export markets parameter estimation relies on the full information maximum likelihood fiml approach and uses bilateral price data for 1965 1987 according to the evidence treating trade elasticities as autonomous parameters and ignoring the statistical implications of simultaneity and optimization biases the structural estimates and undermines our effectiveness in addressing questions relevant to economic interactions among nations