habits costly investment and current account dynamics abstract we analyze the current account dynamics for a small country model with habit forming consumers and costly investment the model has several empirical and policy implications i it is consistent with stylized facts regarding the effects of productivity shocks and increases in fiscal spending and regarding the savings investment co movement ii the long run effect of a temporary shock on net foreign assets is often opposite to that of a permanent shock iii under strong habit persistence the welfare dynamics are sluggish so that a beneficial tax financed fiscal policy may have a harmful hangover effect on welfare

consumption of durable goods and tests of the permanent income hypothesis evidence from korean macro data quarterly aggregate data from korean urban households is used to test the restrictions on the vector autoregressive var representation of the permanent income hypothesis pih in testing these restrictions an alternative consumption measure is proposed which takes account of the flow of services from durable goods for comparison two commonly used measures total consumption expenditures and expenditures on non durables and services are also employed in the empirical analysis and the results show that the choice of consumption measures could have a significant effect on the results of the tests leading to a false conclusion with the improper consumption variables

limited intertemporal commitment and job design abstract the paper shows that some of the guidelines for job design that emerge from a static analysis of the multitask agency problem can be overturned in a dynamic model with limited commitment static analyses have shown that it is optimal to assign workers sole responsibility for tasks and to allocate them tasks which are as homogeneous as possible with respect to the ease of measuring performance our dynamic analysis demonstrates that it can instead be optimal to make workers jointly responsible for tasks and to make their task portfolios as similar to one another but as internally diverse as possible

performance comparisons and dynamic incentives it is well known that comparative performance information cpi can enhance efficiency in static principal agent relationships by improving the trade off between insurance and incentives in the design of explicit contracts in dynamic settings however there may be implicit as well as explicit incentives for example managerial career concerns and the ratchet effect in regulation we show that the dynamic effects of cpi on implicit incentives can either reinforce or oppose the familiar static insurance effect and in either case can be more important for efficiency the overall welfare effects of cpi are thus ambiguous and can be characterized in terms of the underlying information structure

where is the ge consumption dynamics in dsges we offer a partial equilibrium perspective on the behavior of consumption in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge models we consider a benchmark dynamic general equilibrium model and show that a standard calibration implies that the real interest rate is essentially fixed one manifestation of this feature is that with separable preferences the reaction of consumption to total factor productivity tfp shocks is flat the random walk permanent income hypothesis holds almost exactly pretty much as in a partial equilibrium consumption savings problem these results help explain the prominent role of aggregate demand and how it is achieved in modern dsge analysis

modeling recreation site choice do hypothetical choices reflect actual behavior we examine the ability of revealed preference rp site specific stated preference sp transferred sp and joint rp sp models to predict aggregate and individual recreation site choice in a holdout sample for two statistical comparisons the rp model provided the most accurate predictions of individual choices however the transferred sp model applied directly or estimated jointly with the rp data performed best in three aggregate and one individual prediction test these findings suggest that data from well designed and conducted sp surveys from one site can be combined with site specific rp data from another site to generate improved models of recreation site choice an objective of many economic studies is to construct models of choice behavior these models form the basis for welfare mea surement the models can also be used to make predictions of choice behavior that can inform policy makers of the proba ble results of changes in economic fac tors resource

collusion and renegotiation in a principal supervisor agent relationship this paper describes a principal agent relationship with a supervisor who has information about the agent the agent and the supervisor have the possibility to collude and misinform the principal from the literature we know that there exists an optimal contract which excludes collusion in equilibrium the optimal contract however is ex post inefficient and creates scope for renegotiation if renegotiation is allowed then under some parameter constellations the optimal contract is a contract which necessarily induces collusion the paper thus shows that the principal s behavior toward ex post inefficiencies may determine whether collusion occurs in equilibrium

collusion under asymmetric information when applied to groups the revelation principle postulates a bayesian nash behavior between agents their binding agreements are unenforceable or the principal can prevent them at no cost we analyze instead a mechanism design problem in which the agents can communicate between themselves and collude under asymmetric information we characterize the set of implementable collusion proof contracts both when the principal offers anonymous and nonanonymous contracts after having isolated the nexi and the stakes of collusion we proceed to a normative analysis perform some comparative statics discuss our concept of collusion proofness and provide some insights about transaction costs in side contracting

modeling discrete choices with augmented perception hurdles through creating latent perception hurdles associated with each attribute considered in a stated conjoint experiment this article describes a model that augments the conventional approach by utilizing the importance ratings provided by respondents prior to the discrete choice stage the resulting perception hurdle logit phl model has both advantages and disadvantages compared to the conditional logit cl and mixed logit models although the proposed model may not have the best within sample fit it outperforms the other two models in predicting choices in a hold out sample in addition the proposed model is also used to reveal that depending on their own characteristics and the process of the survey respondents may employ an array of different decision strategies

the estimation of surprise models and the surprise consumption function in the first part of the paper we outline a method for estimating a class of models in which news or surprises appear and expectations are formed rationally the method is an extension of the errors in variables method of mccallum and wickens as a by product some of pagan s results on the circumstances under which the commonly used two step method of estimating surprise models is efficient are shown to be a consequence of well known theorems on the efficiency of sub system estimation when a subset of equations are exactly identified in the second part of the paper the method is applied to hall s random walk model of consumption which is extended to allow for stochastic interest rates and for leisure and government spending to be substitutes for private spending the extended formulation is a great deal more successful at capturing the salient features of the data we also derive approximate restrictions across the parameters of the model due to the rational expectations hypothesis but find that they are marginally rejected by the data finally we evaluate the ability of the life cycle with rational expectations model to encompass alternative models

aggregate employment real business cycles and superior information abstract we test whether dynamic stochastic general equilibrium artificial economies associated with several labor market structures provide an adequate characterization of aggregate employment volatility and dynamics our test is robust to possible misspecifications about the information set used by economic agents to forecast future events accounting for agents superior information we find that the divisible labor indivisible labor labor adjustment costs and labor hoarding structures replicate employment volatility in contrast to the nominal wage contracts structure also the labor hoarding structure provides a substantially better account of employment dynamics

habit formation in consumer preferences evidence from panel data this paper tests for the presence of habit formation using household data a simple model of habit formation implies a condition relating the strength of habits to the evolution of consumption over time when the condition is estimated with food consumption data from the panel study on income dynamics the results yield no evidence of habit formation at the annual frequency this finding is robust to a number of changes in the specification it also holds for several proxies for nondurables and services consumption created by combining psid variables with weights estimated from consumer expenditure survey data

an equilibrium model of wealth distribution i present an explicitly solved equilibrium model for the distribution of wealth and income in an incomplete markets economy i flrst propose a self insurance model with an inter temporally dependent preference uzawa 1968 lucas and stokey 1984 and obstfeld 1990 i then derive an analytical consumption rule which captures stochastic precautionary saving motive and generates stationary wealth accumulation finally i provide a complete characterization for the equilibrium cross sectional distribution of wealth and income in closed form by developing a recursive formulation for the moments of the distribution of wealth and income using this recursive formulation i show that income persistence and the degree of wealth mean reversion are the main determinants of wealth income correlation and relative dispersions of wealth to income such as skewness and kurtosis ratios between wealth and income

testing predicted choices against observations in probabilistic discrete choice models probabilistic discrete choice models such as multinomial logit models are widely used to predict changes in market shares or total demand resulting from changes in policy variables under management control these models often are evaluated in terms of their ability to predict choices in a holdout sample this paper presents a new test for comparing predicted and observed choices the results of a monte carlo experiment indicate that the new test has good finite sample properties and high power in several circumstances likely to arise frequently in applications

toward a theory of regulation for developing countries following jean jacques laffont s lead the efficient operation and expansion of infrastructures in developing countries is crucial for growth and poverty reduction however recent reforms aimed at improving the performance of these sectors have had limited success evidence suggests that in many instances this was because the traditional regulatory theory relied on by policymakers was not suitable for the institutional context in developing countries this article surveys more recent theoretical work focusing on problems with regulation in these countries at the heart of the survey is the work of jean jacques laffont who in the last decade of his life set about developing a theoretical framework for regulation in developing countries we consider the implications of his work which focused on the key institutional limitations faced in developing countries we then discuss where experience suggests that there are important omissions from this modeling bringing in extensions and alternative approaches pursued by other authors we conclude by summarizing the key ways in which regulatory policy will be different when institutions are weak overall we find that an understanding of the institutional context and its implications are crucial when designing a regulatory framework for developing countries

measuring price elasticities of demand and supply of water entitlements based on stated and revealed preference data estimates of price elasticities of water entitlements known as permanent water or water rights in the united states are complicated by data limitations and problems of endogeneity to overcome these issues we develop an approach to generate stated preference data and combine them with revealed preference data to estimate price elasticities from various types of water entitlement sales in the southern murray darling basin australia our results suggest that price elasticities of demand and supply of high security water entitlements are inelastic in the relevant market price range between aud 1 700 to 2 100 per mega liter and that supply is relatively more inelastic than demand for lower reliability water entitlements the price elasticity of demand is estimated to be even more inelastic than high security water entitlements the price elasticity of supply for general security water entitlements is similar to high security water entitlements while the supply of low reliability water entitlements is extremely inelastic for our data set the comparison between the stated and revealed preference data provides strong evidence of support for a data fusion approach nevertheless some differences in water sale preferences were found for irrigators choosing not to sell all of their water the consistency of our results signals support for the use of this methodology in other water basins around the world

testing benefits transfer of forest recreation values over a twenty year time horizon we conduct a functional benefit transfer over 20 years of total willingness to pay based on carborne forest recreation in 52 forests using a mixed logit specification of a random utility model and geographic information systems to allow heterogeneous preferences across the population and for heterogeneity over space results show that preferences for some forest attributes such as species diversity and age as well as transport mode have changed significantly over the period updating the transfer model with present total demand for recreation improves the error margins by an average of 282 average errors of the best transfer model remain 25

permanent and transitory movements in labor income an explanation for excess smoothness in consumption many have argued that if labor income is difference stationary the permanent income hypothesis predicts that consumption should be relatively volatile in u s aggregate data labor income is well characterized as having a unit root however consumption turns out to be relatively smooth this anomaly is known as deaton s paradox i resolve deaton s paradox by providing decompositions of labor income into permanent and transitory components these preserve the univariate dynamic properties of labor income however when agents distinguish permanent and transitory movements in their labor income as the rational expectations hypothesis asserts they should the permanent income hypothesis correctly predicts the observed smoothness in consumption

international evidence on sticky consumption growth abstract this paper estimates the degree of stickiness in aggregate consumption growth sometimes interpreted as reflecting consumption habits for thirteen advanced economies we find that after controlling for measurement error consumption growth has a high degree of autocorrelation with a stickiness parameter of about 0 7 on average across countries the sticky consumption growth model outperforms the random walk model of hall 1978 and typically fits the data better than the popular mankiw 1989 model though in a few countries the sticky consumption growth and campbell mankiw models work about equally well

a closed form solution for a model of precautionary saving this paper analyses life cycle consumption plans and distinguishes between temporal risk aversion and intertemporal substitution the results assume that felicity functions are quadratic and that income follows a linear model with normally distributed errors stochastic dynamic programming then yields closed loop linear decision rules certainty equivalence no longer holds but instead households play a min max strategy against nature one finds a rationale for precautionary saving and a larger sensitivity of changes in consumption to income innovations

the theoretical developments initiated by haberler but named for pigou do not provide sufficient grounds for rejecting keynes s key theoretical proposition this paper examines a claim made in the introduction to milton friedman s presidential address to the american economic association and that is now taken for granted in orthodox economics according to friedman the theoretical developments initiated by haberler but named for pigou provide sufficient grounds for rejecting keynes s key theoretical proposition and the economics of keynes in its entirety the problem with this claim is that it turns out given the scrutiny that it clearly deserves to be false the theoretical developments initiated by haberler but named for pigou do not provide sufficient grounds for rejecting keynes s key theoretical proposition and thus the economics of keynes as a whole there is no legitimate rationale for believing in other words even in a world of flexible prices that the system will tend naturally toward a position of equilibrium at full employment

a new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the business cycle abstract this paper introduces a general procedure for decomposition of non stationary time series into a permanent and transitory component allowing both components to be stochastic the permanent component is shown to be a random walk with drift and the transitory or cyclical component is a stationary process with mean zero the decomposition methodology which depends only on past data and therefore is computable in real time is applied to the problem of measuring and dating business cycles in the portwar u s economy we find that measured expansions and contractions are of roughly equivalent duration and that our dating of cyclical episodes tends to lead the traditional nber dating and to a lesser extent the growth cycle chronology of zarnowitz and boschan 1977

finite horizons life cycle savings and time series evidence on consumption abstract this paper develops an explicitly aggregated life cycle model which allows for finite horizons and declining individual labor supply the model can generate a common upward trend in aggregate consumption labor income and nonhuman wealth without relinquishing hall s random walk at the micro level life cycle factors are shown to imply that consumption changes should be a predictable and b smoother than in the infinite horizon model econometric evidence using postwar u s data suggests that neither consumption s predictability nor its excess smoothness can be fully accounted for by life cycle considerations

a semi parametric estimator for revealed and stated preference data an application to recreational beach visitation abstract we present a semi parametric approach for jointly estimating revealed and stated preference recreation demand models the discrete factor method dfm allows for correlation across demand equations and incorporates unobserved heterogeneity our model is a generalized negative binomial with random effects the random effect is composed of a discrete representation of unobserved heterogeneity and a factor loading that translates the heterogeneity measure into a demand effect our empirical application is to beach recreation demand in north carolina statistical evidence supports our dfm specification which imposes less restriction on model dispersion and incorporates unobserved heterogeneity in a flexible manner elasticity estimates are smaller than those derived from models with parametric specifications for unobserved heterogeneity and welfare estimates are slightly larger and less precise while parametric models clearly dominate if the specification of unobserved heterogeneity is correct the semi parametric dfm provides a flexible alternative in cases where mis specification is a potential problem

habit formation in consumption and its implications for monetary policy models this paper explores a monetary policy model with habit formation for consumers in which consumers utility depends in part on current consumption relative to past consumption the empirical tests developed in the paper show that one can reject the hypothesis of no habit formation with tremendous condence largely because the habit formation model captures the gradual hump shaped response of real spending to various shocks the paper then embeds the habit consumption specication in a monetary policy model and nds that the responses of both spending and inflation to monetary policy actions are signicantly improved by this modication jel d12 e52 e43

improving environmental valuation estimates through consistent use of revealed and stated preference information abstract environmental valuation data from stated and revealed preference methods are integrated into a unified model of preferences for environmental quality improvement that identifies the use and nonuse components of the total value estimate this articulates clearly what parts of the total value estimate come from each type of data and permits tests of whether estimated preferences satisfy weak complementarity between the environmental good of interest and related private goods the statistical advantages of using more information for the valuation problem are exploited while retaining flexibility to identify value estimates from any individual method of analysis

renegotiation and information revelation over time the case of optimal labor contracts the paper analyzes the issue of commitment in grossman and hart s model of optimal labor contracts under asymmetric information about firm profitability we extend their framework by allowing employment to vary over time at equidistant intervals when both parties can precommit ex ante not to renegotiate the contract this replicates the grossman hart outcome each subperiod when precommitment is not possible information revealed through the contract can create pareto improving renegotiation opportunities and the issue of optimal information revelation arises the paper analyzes the impact of ex post pareto improving renegotiations on the optimal contract

contract renegotiation a simple framework and implications for organization theory this paper provides a unifying framework for studying renegotiation of contracts in the presence of asymmetric information we show that interim renegotiation does not constrain the set of contracts attainable with full commitment regardless of whether renegotiation offers are made by the informed or the uninformed agent ex post renegotiation however does constrain the set of attainable contracts these constraints depend on the identity of the agent making the renegotiation offer we then show how the theory of contract renegotiation can provide insights for organization theory specifically we show how decentralization of decision making can be an optimal response to the threat of ex post renegotiation finally we show that our framework can be used to analyse the trade off between internal and external markets

multiple bgps in a growth model with habit persistence this paper establishes multiple balanced growth paths in an otherwise standard competitive growth model without externality or distortions and with households preference dependent upon how his her consumption compares to a habit stock formed by his her own past consumption the key feature in our model is that consumption forms habits in combination with existing habits this model establishes multiple equilibria because habit persistence induces an internal intertemporal complementarity effect among consumption flows with current consumption reinforcing future consumption as a result there exist two balanced growth paths with one path exhibiting low consumption and habits and high economic growth and the other path exhibiting high consumption and habits and low growth that is not necessarily a development trap both steady states are saddles but global indeterminacy arises where a high balanced growth path co exists with a low balanced growth path where the two equilibrium paths cannot be pareto ranked and history need not matter for the selection of the equilibrium path

beneficial collusion in corruption control the case of nonmonetary penalties abstract we analyze a corruption model where a principal seeks to control an agent s corruption by supplementing a costless noncollusive outside detector such as the media with a collusive internal supervisor the principal s objective is to minimize the overall costs made up of enforcement costs and social costs of corruption if the penalties on the corrupt agent and a failing supervisor are nonmonetary in nature and yet the two parties can engage in monetary side transfers the principal may stand to benefit by allowing supervisor agent collusion this benefit may even prompt the principal to actively encourage collusion by hiring a dishonest supervisor in strict preference over an honest supervisor

corruption and rent seeking the rent seeking theory was one of thefirst economic instruments developed tomodel corruption in the public sector comparing corruption with lobbying itproposes that the former is the lesser oftwo evils since lobbying entails the wastage of resources inthe competition forpreferential treatment this study showsthat the traditional rent seeking theorymisunderstands three factors first theimpact of a corrupt monopoly on the rent ssize second corruption as a motivationfor supplying preferential treatment andthird that corruption involves a narrowerrange of interests than those ofcompetitive lobbying taking these factorsinto consideration the opposite argumentis valid corruption has worse welfareimplications than alternative rent seekingactivities

combining revealed preference data with stated preference data a latent class approach a substantial literature exists combining data from revealed preference rp and stated preference sp sources aimed either at testing for the convergent validity of the two approaches used in nonmarket valuation or as a means of drawing on their relative strengths to improve the ultimate estimates of value in doing so it is assumed that convergence of the two elicitation approaches is an all or nothing proposition i e the rp and sp data are either consistent with each other or they are not the purpose of this paper is to propose an alternative framework that allows for possible divergence among individuals in terms the consistency between their rp and sp responses in particular we suggest the use of a latent class approach to segment the population into two groups the first group has rp and sp responses that are internally consistent while the remaining group exhibits some form of inconsistent preferences an em algorithm is employed in an empirical application that draws on the alberta and saskatchewan moose hunting data sets used in earlier combined rp and sp exercises the empirical results suggest that somewhere between one third and one half the sample exhibits consistent preferences we also examine differences in welfare estimates drawn from the two classes

multicointegration in us consumption data the present study tests for the existence of multicointegration between real per capita private consumption expenditure and real per capita disposable personal income in the usa in doing so the study exploits the fact that the flows of disposable income and consumption expenditure on the one hand and the stock of consumers wealth which can be considered as cumulative past discrepancies between the flows of income and expenditure on the other hand can be thought of as a stock flow model in which multicointegration is likely to occur recently developed i 2 techniques are applied for testing for multicointegrating relations and find supporting evidence for the existence of multicointegration in us consumption data

saving and income smoothing evidence from panel data abstract in this paper we use data from a panel of dutch households to investigate the behavior of savings as in campbell 1987 we examine whether the pattern of savings is consistent with the predictions of the rational expectations permanent income model we consider one important prediction of the model whether savings anticipate future income changes we test the predictions of the permanent income model in several ways first we propose some informal tests that exploit directly the information on expected future income changes available in the data we then perform a test of the model by setting up a vector autoregression var in terms of savings and income changes and by using euler equations expressed in terms of savings the empirical evidence shows that in all the specifications used in this paper the permanent income model is rejected contrary to the evidence from u s macro data we do not find that the excess sensitivity of consumption to income is responsible for the rejection of the model

imperfect insurance and differing propensities to consume across households abstract this paper extends previous tests of consumption insurance by splitting the sample to examine whether the marginal propensity to consume mpc out of idiosyncratic income shocks is larger for low wealth households than it is for high wealth households using data from the psid i find 1 the mpc of low wealth households is higher than that of high wealth households there are indications that both precautionary savings behavior and liquidity constraints contribute to this difference 2 splitting the data using two different measures of wealth indicates that households perceive housing equity as illiquid 3 when low wealth households are split into two subgroups the mpc of the very low wealth group is smaller reflecting the insurance aspects of means tested safety net programs

testing the life cycle hypothesis with a norwegian household panel this article reports the results of progressive refinements in the models used to test the permanent income hypothesis these tests are undertaken with a household panel constructed from diaries by the norwegian central bureau of statistics the data combine detailed expenditure and price information with income and wealth data from the government s tax files for 1975 1977 using a model that takes account of relative price change and demographic variables recognizes the effects of durables and incorporates explicit recognition of the effects of differences in the timing of observations or income innovations and spending the results indicate that the data are consistent with the permanent income life cycle hypothesis

the contributions of angus deaton angus deaton was awarded the 2015 sveriges riksbank prize in economic sciences in memory of alfred nobel for his analysis of consumption poverty and welfare this article reviews his contributions to economics

perceptions versus objective measures of environmental quality in combined revealed and stated preference models of environmental valuation abstract this study examines perceptions and objective attribute measures in discrete choice models of recreation site choice behavior these forms of attribute measurement are examined in individual and combined revealed preference stated preference models our results suggest that the model based on perceptions slightly outperforms the models based on objective attribute measures however issues such as the definition of the choice set and the measurement of welfare present significant challenges when using perceptions data

does buffer stock saving explain the smoothness and excess sensitivity of consumption one of the lasting contributions to modernday consumer theory is the idea that consumption is determined by the expected value of lifetime resources or permanent income the modern day specification of this concept is typically presented as a special case of intertemporalchoice theory where felicity functions are quadratic labor income is stochastic there are no restrictions on borrowing consumers have infinite horizons and expectations are formed rationally we refer to this model as the permanentincome hypothesis pih although the pih has considerable intuitive appeal a series of influential papers published after its inception revealed two notable discrepancies between the model s predictions and aggregate data first the model predicts that consumption growth should be more volatile than income growth if aggregate income growth has positive serial correlation as the quarterly data suggest it does yet aggregate consumption growth is in fact much smoother than aggregate income growth angus deaton 1987 john y campbell and deaton 1989 jordi gali 1991 second the pih predicts that consumption changes should be orthogonal to predictable or lagged income changes yet the coffelation between consumption growth and lagged income growth has been found to be one of the most robust features of aggregate data for example marjorie a flavin 1981 alan s blinder and deaton 1985 campbell and n gregory mankiw 1989 orazio p attanasio and guglielmo weber 1993 thus aggregate consumption growth has been described as exhibiting two puzzles it is both excessively smooth relative to current labor income growth and excessively sensitive to lagged labor income growth 2 in response to these and other empirical anomalies researchers have recently sought out modifications of the pih framework chief ludvigson federal reserve bank of new york 33 liberty street new york ny 10045 michaelides university of cyprus p o box 20537 1678 nicosia cyprus a previous version of this paper appeared under the title can we explain the consumption excesses yet aggregate consumption implications of buffer stock saving behavior for many helpful comments we thank orazio attanasio dave backus ben bernanke john y campbell christopher carroll todd clark angus deaton pierreolivier gourinchas bo honore james kahn martin lettau costas meghir christina paxson steve pischke andrew samwick christopher sims mark watson guglielmo weber michael woodford steve zeldes and two anonymous referees conference participants at the national bureau of economic research summer workshop on the aggregate implications of microeconomic consumption behavior july 1998 the tmr workshop on saving and pensions center tilburg university march 1999 and the new york area macroeconomics workshop october 1998 seminar participants at columbia university insead the new york federal reserve university college london london business school city university business school university of cyprus tel aviv university and jeffrey brown for excellent research assistance the views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the federal reserve bank of new york or the federal reserve system any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the authors 1 note that the important insight of danny quah 1990 that individuals may be better able than econometricians to distinguish short run from long run innovations to their income cannot resolve the excess smoothness puzzle laid out in campbell and deaton 1989 these authors show that in the context of the pih excess sensitivity and excess smoothness are the same phenomena in addition campbell 1987 demonstrates that superior information of the type emphasized by quah will show up in households saving behavior and using this information allows the econometrician to control for the agent s private information when predicting income since excess sensitivity is well established and controlling for saving does not eliminate it see campbell and deaton 1989 the observed smoothness of consumption cannot be explained by superior information on the part of permanent income consumers see deaton 1992 for further discussion 2 philippe bacchetta and stefan gerlach 1997 and ludvigson 1999 document another kind of excess sensitivity the correlation between consumption growth and predictable changes in consumer credit although we do not explore these findings here ludvigson finds that a bufferstock model with time varying liquidity constraints can replicate such a correlation

combining revealed and stated preference data to estimate the nonmarket value of ecological services an assessment of the state of the science this paper reviews the marketing transportation and environmental economics literature on the joint estimation of revealed preference rp and stated preference sp data the rp and sp approaches are first described with a focus on the strengths and weaknesses of each recognizing these strengths and weaknesses the potential gains from combining data are described a classification system for combined data that emphasizes the type of data combination and the econometric models used is proposed a methodological review of the literature is pursued based on this classification system examples from the environmental economics literature are highlighted a discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of each type of jointly estimated model is then presented suggestions for future research in particular opportunities for application of these models to environmental quality valuation are presented

adverse selection and renegotiation in procurement as was shown by dewatripont optimal long term contracts are generally not sequentially optimal the parties ex post renegotiate them to their mutual advantage this paper fully characterizes the equilibrium of a simple two period procurement situation and studies the extent to which renegotiation reduces ex ante welfare i a central result is that like in the non commitment case the second period allocation is optimal for the principal conditionally on his posterior beliefs about the agent ii the first period allocation exhibits an increasing amount of pooling when the discount factor grows iii with a continuum of types it is never optimal to induce full separation the paper also analyzes whether renegotiated long term contracts yield outcomes resembling those under either unnegotiated long term contracts or a sequence of short term contracts and it links the analysis with the multiple unit durable good monopoly problem

why is consumption so smooth for thirty years it has been accepted that consumption is smooth because permanent income is smoother than measured income this paper considers the evidence for the contrary position that permanent income is in fact less smooth than measured income so that the smoothness of consumption cannot be straightforwardly explained by permanent income theory the paper argues that in postwar u s quarterly data consumption is smooth because it responds with a lag to changes in income

measuring and understanding behavior welfare and poverty angus deaton delivered his prize lecture on tuesday 8 december 2015 at the aula magna stockholm university these are the lecture slides this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

do tax cuts generate twin deficits a multi country analysis we study the eects of tax shocks on the budget and external deficits for 16 industrialized countries over the post 1975 period our structural approach is based on a tractable small open economy model where a tax cut generates a budget deficit in turn the budget deficit aects the external deficit by two distinct channels the demographic channel works through the overlapping generation structure of the model the forecasting channel works through the dynamic structure of the model our empirical analysis documents that tax shocks generate significant positive comovements between the budget and external deficits we also find that both the demographic and forecasting channels are important to explain the comovements

consumers are not ricardian evidence from nineteen countries i introduction in conventional macroeconomic analysis government debt affects the economy because households view it as net wealth the larger the government debt is the wealthier households feel and the more they consume in principle however households need not view government debt as net wealth david ricardo pointed out that they might conceivably treat the future taxes servicing the government debt as exactly offsetting it 1 robert barro 1974 has shown that maximizing households will actually do so if they accurately anticipate future taxes if they face perfect capital markets and if they have effectively infinite horizons ricardian equivalence is said to hold if households do treat future servicing taxes as an exact offset to the government debt many empirical papers on consumption have investigated whether ricardian equivalence is consistent with observation kochin 1974 barro 1978 tanner 1979 seater 1982 kormendi 1983 aschauer 1985 seater and mariano 1985 kormendi and meguire 1986 1990 leiderman and razin 1988 evans 1988 and evans and hasan 1993 have reported evidence consistent with ricardian equivalence by contrast blinder and deaton 1985 feldstein 1978 1982 boskin and kotlikoff 1985 modigliani and sterling 1986 1990 and feldstein and elmendorf 1990 have reported evidence inconsistent with ricardian equivalence unfortunately most of these studies do not estimate regression equations that derive from well specified theoretical models nesting both ricardian equivalence and an alternative theory in which budget deficits and current taxes are not equivalent consequently their results are often hard to interpret moreover these studies consider the data for only one country typically the united states as a result the tests that are performed may not have much power to distinguish an economy for which ricardian equivalence would be a good approximation from one for which it would be a bad approximation olivier blanchard 1985 has provided one of the few models in the literature that tractably nests ricardian equivalence and an alternative in which households view government debt as net wealth depending upon whether a crucial parameter is zero or positive households have infinite horizons internalize all future generations and exhibit ricardian behavior or have finite horizons are at least somewhat disconnected from future generations and exhibit non ricardian behavior that strengthens as the parameter becomes larger the model has testable implications that this paper examines using annual data for nineteen countries when the data for the countries are pooled the tests have sufficient power not only to reject ricardian equivalence in favor of blanchard s alternative but also to yield a precise estimate of the deviation from ricardian equivalence this estimated deviation is approximately what one would expect if capital and insurance markets were perfect and households did not have altruistic bequest motives the deviation is however also economically unimportant for many purposes the rest of the paper is organized as follows section ii lays out blanchard s model and derives the testable implications of ricardian equivalence section iii tests these implications section iv summarizes the findings of the paper and interprets them ii empirical implications of ricardian equivalence in the stochastic variant of blanchard s model formulated in this section the economy is inhabited by a constant population of households that have finite horizons and face perfect capital and insurance markets 2 each household has a finite horizon because it has a probability p of dying each period and being replaced by another household from which it is entirely disconnected with the population normalized to unity the number of households born 0 1 2 periods earlier is always p p 1 p p 1 p sup

do parents benefit it from school health risk reduction the choice experiment method was applied to determine parent s preferences and monetaryvalues of risk reductions on three related health issues in school lead contamination inschool drinking water diarrhea from food contamination and accident from outdoor playground data were obtained from face to face interview of 672 respondents in three regions ofthailand lead contamination is the greatest concern among parents as reflected by thelargest coefficients of risk reduction levels and the highest amount of monetary values elicitedfrom parent s preferences the other two issues are considered of equal importance however parents seem insensitive to the changes of risk reductions of these two issues revealingthe scope insensitivity given the scope insensitivity choice experiment may be seen as apromising method to determine preferences and monetary values of health related issuesthat have no appropriate or precise financial proxy available keywords non market valuation safety in school health risk reduction jel classification d61 i10 i31

income tax compliance in a principal agent framework previous analyses have modeled income tax evasion as a portfolio problem deriving the optimal consumption of the risky asset unreported income under the assumption of a fixed probability of detection the purpose of this paper is to examine some of these issues in tax compliance starting from a different set of assumptions in particular we compare alternative audit policies to the standard random audit policy we focus on an audit cutoff policy in which an agent triggers an audit if his or her reported income is too low and is not audited if reported income is sufficiently high this paper establishes two major results first random audit rules are weakly dominated by audit cutoff rules it can be shown given lump sum taxes and fines that these audit cutoff rules are the least cost policies which induce truthful reporting of income second the dominance of audit cutoff rules over random audit rules holds for lump sum as well as proportional taxation in fact the equilibrium consequences of the two are equivalent

valuing water quality as a function of water quality measures employing a unique and rich data set of water quality attributes in conjunction with detailed household characteristics and trip information we develop a mixed logit model of recreational lake usage and undertake thorough model specification and fitting procedures to identify the best set of explanatory variables and their functional form for the estimated model our empirical analysis shows that individuals are responsive to the full set of water quality measures used by biologists to identify the impaired status of lakes thus changes in these quality measures are not simply a scientific exercise but they also translate into changes in the recreational usage patterns and well being of individual households willingness to pay wtp estimates are reported based on improvements in these physical measures

credit and efficiency in centralized and decentralized economies we study a credit model where because of adverse selection unprofitable projects may nevertheless be financed indeed they may continue to be financed even when shown to be low quality if sunk costs have already been incurred we show that credit decentralization offers a way for creditors to commit not to refinance such projects thereby discouraging entrepreneurs from undertaking them initially thus decentralization provides financial discipline nevertheless we argue that it puts too high a premium on short term returns the model seems pertinent to two issues soft budget constraint problems in centralized economies and differences between anglo saxon and german japanese financing practices

a comment on durable goods consumption abstract this paper examines the time series behavior of durables nondurables and services consumption expenditure of six oecd countries following caballero s approach in each country durables expenditure exhibits greater reversion than nondurables and services when lower frequencies of the series are examined the results reject the frictionless pih as a model for durable goods consumption however they strongly support mankiw s hypothesis on the nature of durable goods consumption

consumption innovation persistence and the excess smoothness debate based on studies using us data consumption is too smooth relative to the implications of the rational expectations permanent income hypothesis repih of consumption we examine this and a number of related methodologicalissues for the uk using maximum likelihood estimation mle of an autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average arfima model of the income process we conclude that an innovation to income has a persistent effect on consumption and that in contrast to the findings from us studies consumption is too volatile compared to the repih model further mle is substantially more efficient than the semi parametric method of estimating arfima models which has previously been used in this area

current account dynamics under information rigidity and imperfect capital mobility abstract the current account in developed countries is highly persistent and volatile in comparison to their output growth the standard intertemporal current account model with rational expectations re fails to explain the observed current account and consumption dynamics the re model extended with imperfect capital mobility by shibata and shintani 1998 can account for the consumption dynamics but only at the cost of the explanatory power for the volatility of the current account this paper replaces re in the intertemporal current account model with sticky information si in which consumers are inattentive to shocks to their income the si model can better explain a persistent and volatile current account than the re model but it overpredicts the persistence of changes in consumption the si model extended with imperfect capital mobility explains both the current account and consumption provided that sufficiently high degrees of information rigidity and imperfect capital mobility are considered

has federal budget deficit policy changed in recent years this paper applies new tests for parameter instability in cointegrated regression models to the u s federal government s intertemporal budget constraint in order to detect whether there has been a regime change in spending and taxing policies some researchers have argued that fiscal policy under presidents reagan and bush moved the u s deficit onto an unsustainable path my results suggest that government deficit policy in the 1980s was not significantly different from policies during the three earlier decades however a diverging debt gnp ratio suggests that the government will run into problems marketing its debt if current policy continues

identifying demand parameters in the presence of unobservables a combined revealed and stated preference approach we develop a combined revealed and stated preference approach to identify discrete choice demand parameters in the presence of unobserved determinants of choice our approach overcomes difficulties associated with small choice sets multicollinearity and endogeneity that arise with revealed preference approaches to illustrate our framework we revisit two canadian moose hunting datasets our empirical results suggest the potential gains from fusing revealed and stated preference data but they also suggest its limitations when the data generating processes for the data sources differ

contracts under wage compression a case of beneficial collusion this paper considers a principal agent model with adverse selection and limited wage discrimination under wage compression an agent may have an incentive to free ride on other agents by manipulating his private information when collusion among the agents is not possible the principal distorts the output schedule to reduce information rent associated with the free riding opportunity under collusion however the principal can reduce the information rent by inducing side contracts among the agents thus partly removing the distortion in the output schedule we show that side contracts among the agents take place in equilibrium and that the prospect of collusion is beneficial

ricardian equivalence in the presence of capital market imperfections abstract it is a common claim that ricardian equivalence fails if capital markets are imperfect the validity of this claim is examined for the case of informationally imperfect capital markets we present three alternative models of adverse selection and analyze the effects of debt finance in these models it is shown that a debt financed tax cut can lead to pareto improvement in some cases in the theoretically most preferable model however ricardian equivalence survives in spite of genuine imperfections in the capital market the results point to the importance of specifying the exact nature of imperfection

consumption and portfolio choice under internal multiplicative habit formation this paper explores the optimal consumption and investment behavior of an individual who derives utility from the ratio between his consumption and an endogenous habit we obtain closed form policies under general utility functionals and stochastic investment opportunities by developing a nontrivial linearization to the budget constraint this enables us to explicitly characterize how habit formation affects the marginal propensity to consume and optimal stock bond investments we also show that in a setting that combines habit formation with epstein zin utility consumption no longer grows at unrealistically high rates at high ages and investments in risky assets decrease

precautionary saving an explanation for excess sensitivity of consumption the permanent income hypothesis under certainty equivalence yields a martingale consumption process empirically this hypothesis is rejected because consumption is excessively sensitive to anticipated income one approach to account for excess sensitivity is to relax certainty equivalence by using utility functions that induce precautionary saving this article analyzes a hyperbolic absolute risk aversion utility function empirically some reasonable parameterizations of this specification allow one to match the excess sensitivity associated with the data these parameterizations also permit one to account for the excess smoothness problem excess sensitivity and excess smoothness however do not reflect the same phenomenon

collusion and renegotiation in hierarchies a case of beneficial corruption corruption opportunities arise when a principal delegates enforcement or audit authority to a supervisor the supervisor may then strike a deal with the agent she is supposed to monitor and conceal important information from the principal corruption imposes a constraint on governance and appears therefore to be harmful for the principal we show that this need not be the case in our model the prospect of corruption can make the principal better off the reason is that the collusion possibility generates dynamic effects which in cases where only limited intertemporal commitments can be made may be beneficial for the principal

the market value and maturity structure of government of canada debt 1967 83 the market value and maturity structure of outstanding government of canada debt are calculated at monthly frequency for the 1967 to 1983 period the data are disaggregated into general public chartered bank and government holdings the time series behaviour of market value and par value measures are examined to determine whether par value is a reasonable approximation for market value market value data are also used to construct an alternative measure of the deficit flow which is compared with conventional measures of the deficit la valeur au marche et la structure d echeances de la dette du gouvernement du canada 1967 83 la valeur au marche et la structure d echeances de la dette du gouvernement du canada sont calculees par les auteurs pour chaque mois au cours de la periode de 1967 a 1983 on a ventile les resultats en portions detenues par le grand public par les banques a charte et par le gouvernement les auteurs examinent ensuite la chronique des mesures de valeurs au march6 et de valeurs au pair afin de determiner si la valeur au pair est une bonne approximation de la valeur au marche on se sert alors des donnees precisant la valeur au marche pour construire un indicateur de rechange du d6ficit qu on peut alors comparer aux mesures conventionnelles du deficit

the efficient allocation of consumption under moral hazard and hidden access to the credit market in this paper we describe the properties of the optimal allocation of consumption in a world with moral hazard and hidden borrowing and lending we discuss how and under what conditions the efficient allocation can be distinguished from that of the permanent income self insurance model we also compare our allocation with the complete markets full information case and with the standard moral hazard model with monitorable and fully contractible asset holdings jel d82 e21 jel d82 e21 jel d82 e21 jel d82 e21

testing the permanent income hypothesis the evidence from canadian data this paper investigates whether there are variants of the permanent income model that are consistent with seasonally unadjusted quarterly postwar canadian data the analysis is based on a misspecification test equation which nests the standard permanent income model the results obtained are somewhat unfavourable to the permanent income hypothesis the same results also apply to more general models in which the real interest rate is time varying and the utility function is non separable in consumption and the stock of durable goods un test de l hypothese du revenu permanent resultats derives a partir des donnees cana diennes ce memoire presente les resultats d une enquete pour etablir s il existe un ou des variantes du modele du revenu permanent qui soient compatibles avec les donnees trimestrielles canadiennes non desaisonnalisees pour la periode de l apres seconde guerre mondiale l analyse est fondee sur une equation qui encastre le modele de revenu perma nent standard mais qui est enrichie pour tester la specification de l 6equation les resultats obtenus sont quelque peu defavorables a l hypothese du revenu permanent les memes resultats s appliquent aussi a des modeles plus generaux dans lesquels le taux d interet reel

are consumers ricardian evidence for the united states this paper derives three empirical implications of a well specified model of consumer behavior a model that nests both ricardian equivalence and an alternative non ricardian theory ricardian equivalence is then tested against this alternative the tests reveal that ricardian equivalence cannot be rejected

renegotiation of sales contracts this paper studies moral hazard contracts that may be renegotiated after an agent chooses an unobservable effort unlike in previous models a contract here contains only one compensation scheme and the agent has all the bargaining power in the renegotiation stage using a relatively weak forward induction refinement all equilibria are shown tb be second best efficient renegotiation occurs in every equilibrium if the effort set is rich the only equilibrium initial contract is a sales contract i e a scheme which sells the project to the agent this captures the idea that a party the principal who has an inherently weak renegotiation position will sometimes insist on a simple initial contract

the transferability of benefit transfer contingent valuation of water quality improvements in costa rica abstract identical contingent valuation studies of willingness to pay wtp for improvements in coastal water quality were conducted in the town of jaco and city of puntarenas on the pacific coast of costa rica several common hypotheses for benefit transfer reliability were tested for the transfer of wtp estimates between the two communities as well as between districts within puntarenas this study finds no basis for the claim that the reliability of benefit transfer increases with proximity between the study site where wtp estimates are taken from and the policy site estimates are transferred to the claim that transfer of wtp adjusted by the benefit function outperforms transfers of unadjusted or simple income adjusted wtp is rejected for this particular study results also show that census type socio economic site characteristics are necessary but not sufficient to explain site specific differences in wtp the trade offs in designing valid and reliable benefit transfer studies with transferable results are discussed

how forward looking are consumers further evidence for the united states this paper extends a standard model of consumption to test for the existence of myopic consumers the extended model includes rule of thumb consumers as well as consumers who are assumed to solve a dynamic programming problem the model allows this second set of consumers however to be boundedly rational for a variety of reasons they may be unable to fully account for their future uncertain labor income the model predicts that this inability to correctly value future resources leads to the breakdown of the simple permanent income hypothesis and that consumption responds to predictable changes in income using data for the united states for the period 1951 1990 the paper finds evidence of such myopic behavior

comparing contingent valuation and averting expenditure estimates of the costs of irregular water supply abstract we compare two methods contingent valuation and averting expenditures to measure the demand for improved water reliability in urban jordan traditionally averting expenditures a revealed preference measure have been considered a lower bound for demand relative to contingent valuation a stated preference measure estimates we develop a theoretical model to show that this relationship critically depends on household perceptions in our setting this insight is important because households appear to have relatively low confidence in both the reliability and quality of existing water supplies even though water quality tests suggest that utility water is safe to drink from a microbial perspective averting expenditures which reach 4 of monthly expenditures on average include substantial purchases of non network water sourced from water shops or tankers as well as costs in terms of water collection time storage and in home treatment in contrast the contingent valuation responses while correlated with coping costs reveal low willingness to pay for increases in water reliability from the utility network we attribute this departure from the traditional relationship between averting expenditures and contingent valuation to the lack of household confidence in the quality of utility provided water our study thus adds to previous evidence in the literature which points to the importance of consumer perceptions in determining demand for environmental improvements

blanchard s model of consumption an empirical study this article derives several empirically testable implications for blanchard s consumption model which has been widely used in analytical macroeconomic research cointegration methods are applied the parameter that measures the life horizon of households is estimated and the consumption model is tested quarterly canadian data are used there is no empirical evidence against the assumption that households behave as if they live forever within blanchard s framework blanchard s model of consumption is strongly rejected by the data however

international evidence on the persistence of economic fluctuations abstract this paper presents new evidence on the persistence of fluctuations in real gnp we estimate two measures of persistence nonparametrically using post war quarterly data from canada france germany italy japan the united kingdom and the united states we compare these estimates with monte carlo results from various ar 2 processes for six out of seven countries the point estimates indicate that a 1 shock to output should change the long run unvariate forecast of output by well over 1 low order arma models yield similar conclusions finally we examine the persistence in relative outputs of different countries

the timing of purchases and aggregate fluctuations we study the cyclical effects of the timing of durable goods purchases in a general equilibrium model in which both durable and non durable goods are consumed and the durable good is lumpy at the microeconomic level the timing of durable goods purchases supplies some insulation for nondurable consumption over the cycle at the macroeconomic level the timing decisions tend to amplify and propagate wealth and income shocks our model also allows for endogenous price determination when the price of the durable changes due to inflexibility of workers between sectors the effect of adverse shocks is even stronger and longer copyright 2005 wiley blackwell

risk sharing and industrial specialization regional and international evidence the authors provide empirical evidence that risk sharing enhances specialization in production to the best of their knowledge this well established and important theoretical proposition has not been tested before the empirical procedure is summarized as follows first the authors construct a measure of specialization in production and calculate an index of specialization for each of the european community ec and non ec oecd countries u s states canadian provinces japanese prefectures latin american countries and regions of italy spain and the united kingdom then they estimate the degree of capital market integration a measure of risk sharing within each of these groups of regions the ec countries the non ec oecd countries the united states canada japan italy spain and the united kingdom and rely on another author s estimate for latin america finally they perform a regression of the specialization index on the degree of risk sharing controlling for relevant economic variables they find a positive and significant relation between the degree of specialization of individual members of a group of countries provinces states or prefectures and the amount of risk that is shared within the group the authors perform regressions using variables such as shareholder rights and the size of the financial sector relative to gdp as instruments for the amount of inter regional risk sharing these regressions confirm that risk sharing facilitated by a favorable legal environment and a developed financial system is a direct causal determinant of industrial specialization this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the deaton paradox in a long memory context with structural breaks this article contributes to the permanent income hypothesis pih and excess consumption smoothness debate in the context of fractional integration we show that the excess consumption smoothness result is a consequence of the quarterly data frequency commonly employed in the empirical work in fact the i 1 hypothesis is rejected for the income process with monthly data in favour of a fractional integration order lower than 1 moreover if a structural break is taken into account we observe a substantial reduction in the degree of consumption smoothness especially after the break found in 1975

testing the stochastic implications of the life cycle permanent income hypothesis using uk regional time series data this paper applies exclusion tests of the pure life cycle permanent income hypothesis lcpih to time series data on each of the eleven standard regions of the uk data are annual and extend from 1975 to 1994 the results obtained suggest that there are considerable differences in consumption behaviour across the regions theory has indicated that a departure of consumption behaviour from that predicted by the lcpih can occur because of a change in unemployment consequently a comparison is undertaken of the empirical results obtained for the eleven regions and the respective unemployment movements following this comparison it is possible to conclude that the contrasting unemployment experiences of the regions of the uk have contributed significantly to yet cannot account for fully the observed differences in consumption behaviour

induced uncertainty market price of risk and the dynamics of consumption and wealth abstract in this paper we examine the implications of model uncertainty or robustness rb for consumption and saving and the market price of uncertainty under limited information processing capacity rational inattention or ri first we show that ri by itself creates an additional demand for robustness that leads to higher induced uncertainty facing consumers second if we allow capacity to be elastic rb increases the optimal level of attention third we explore how the induced uncertainty composed of i model uncertainty due to rb and ii state uncertainty due to ri affects consumption and wealth dynamics the market price of uncertainty and the welfare losses due to incomplete information we find that induced uncertainty can better explain the observed consumption income volatility and market price of uncertainty low attention increases the effect of model misspecification

a comparison of stated preference methods for environmental valuation this paper presents an empirical comparison of contingent valuation cvm and choice experiments which are used to value environmental quality changes both of these methods require individuals to state their preferences for environmental qualities however choice experiments differ from cvm in that environmental attributes are varied in an experimental design which requires respondents to make repeated choices between bundles of attributes the empirical application involved the effect of environmental quality changes arising from forest management practices on recreational moose hunting values significant differences were found between the values derived from the two methods however detailed examination of the implied choice behaviour suggested that respondents ignored substitute recreation areas in the cvm question restricting the choice experiment model to consider only the one site where quality was varied resulted in welfare estimates similar to the cvm model this highlights the importance of substitutes in environmental valuation and suggests that choice experiments may be more appropriate than cvm in some cases