foreign exchange shocks and gasoline consumption abstract in an open economy the foreign exchange rate fer influences incentives for the cross border shopping of gasoline as well as the opportunity cost of using vehicles and the relative attractiveness of home versus foreign travel using monthly regional level data of gasoline consumption in iran we estimate the impact of exchange rate shocks both in level and volatility on gasoline demand we find that positive exchange rate shocks have a negative impact on total gasoline consumption as well as on vehicle users demand in both short run and long run furthermore we find that in the periods that fer is less volatile the responsiveness of gasoline demand to a change in fer is more pronounced

demand elasticities for food products in brazil a two stage budgeting system the object of this article is to estimate demand elasticities for a basket of staple food important for providing the caloric needs of brazilian households these elasticities are useful in the measurement of the impact of structural reforms on poverty a two stage demand system was constructed based on data from household expenditure surveys pof produced by ibge the brazilian bureau of statistics in 1987 88 and 1995 96 we have used panel data to estimate the model and have calculated income own price and cross price elasticities for eight groups of goods and services and in the second stage for 11 sub groups of staple food products we estimated those elasticities for the whole sample of consumers and for two income groups

oil and natural gas prospects in south america can the petroleum industry pave the way for renewables in brazil abstract a large share of brazil s current investments is concentrated in the development of petroleum resources in new frontiers perspectives for large offshore pre salt fields are particularly good however challenges are also huge on one hand pre salt resources development will draw vast amounts of economic and human resources and pose significant macroeconomic risks on the other hand the petroleum industry can generate multiplicative effects into the country s economy and even more importantly generate rents that can be diverted towards the promotion of renewable energy sources this paper simulates the rent generation of brazil s petroleum development up to 2030 according to the country s current fiscal regime projections of petroleum supply and a probability analysis of brent price evolution and assesses how these economic resources if properly allocated can pave the way for an increased use of renewables in brazil findings show that an ambitious energy innovation program based on a target oriented agency plus a program for solar development would cost less than half the minimum average annual petroleum rent free for investing in renewables between 2013 and 2030 the remaining budget could improve the security of ethanol fuel supply by avoiding the negative impacts of sugar prices spikes on brazil s ethanol production

electricity demand response to price changes the portuguese case taking into account income differences abstract in this paper we study the behavior of electricity use in portuguese households using microdata from five independent surveys our sample covers the period from 1989 to 2010 which was characterized by major changes in the country we adopt the pseudo panel methodology creating 350 cohorts based on the size of the household the type of location rural or urban the region and the income quintile our results show relatively high medium long run own price elasticities indicating that an increase in the electricity price due to for instance policy intervention would in fact decrease electricity use cross price elasticities indicate that electricity and gas are substitutes additionally the income quintiles analysis shows significant differences in the elasticities depending on the income group hence political interventions in the electricity sector may have important redistributive effects

the demand for gasoline abstract sufficient time must be allowed to elapse to assess fully the response of gasoline demand to price changes hitherto empirical work on the subject has generally not examined the period beyond 1975 moreover the extant time series studies concentrate almost exclusively on the usa this study extends both the observation period and the country coverage a vehicle stock adjustment model is estimated via its reduced form without explicit consideration of the vehicle stock itself however the estimation procedure incorporates the structure by way of constraints on the parameters cross section analysis offers additional evidence concerning the truly long run price elasticity the results suggest that there is no need to resort to elaborate models to explain adequately gasoline demand gasoline demand exhibits a long run price elasticity near unity with time lags exceeding six years while there is tentative evidence that the duration of these lags is not fixed

income generating effects of biofuel policies a meta analysis of the cge literature abstract while the production of biofuels has expanded in recent years findings in the literature on its impact on economic growth and development remain contradictory this paper presents a meta analysis of computable general equilibrium cge studies published between 2006 and 2017 on the effect of biofuel production on economic development worldwide using 30 cge studies we found that biofuel supportive policies generated significant impacts on gdp and household incomes cge studies included in our database reported an average 0 25 percentage point increase in gdp and a 0 49 percentage point increase in household incomes we also found that results were driven by several key features of the cge studies included in our database we investigated features such as biofuel type geographic area and characteristics of the cge models employed we found that biofuel expansion has heterogeneous effects in developed versus emerging countries simulations on longer time periods and in multi country studies led to results that indicate higher impacts of biofuel expansion on gdp growth and household incomes moreover simulations with an increase in agricultural productivity indicate positive welfare impact gains unlike simulations with land expansion lastly we found that biodiesel development leads to higher welfare impact gains than that of bioethanol

the future of oil and bioethanol in brazil abstract this work compares the return on investments roi of oil versus biofuels in brazil although several renewable energy sources might displace oil the country s forte is sugarcane biofuels in our analysis we carry out simplified benefit cost analyses of producing oil fields pre salt oil fields without and with enhanced oil recovery a business as the usual ethanol scenario and a high ethanol scenario excluding the roi from existing oil fields which is the highest when the discount rate is 4 or more the roi of the high ethanol scenario is greater than that of the roi of pre salt oil considering a us 40 t co2 tax the high ethanol scenario s roi is greater than the pre salt oil s roi if a discount rate of 2 or more is adopted moreover the high ethanol scenario throughput up to 2070 compares to 97 of the pre salt oil reserve without eor and demands 78 of its investment pre salt oil production declines beyond 2042 when the country might become a net oil importer in contrast ethanol production reaches 2 1 million boe per day and another 0 9 million boe of fossil demand is displaced through bioelectricity yielding a total of 3 million boe 62 of the country s oil demand

semiparametric estimation and consumer demand this paper considers the implementation of semiparametric methods in the empirical analysis of consumer demand the application is to the estimation of the engel curve relationship and uses the british family expenditure survey household composition is modelled using an extended partially linear framework this is shown to provide a useful method for pooling non parametric engel curves across households of different demographic composition c 1998 john wiley sons ltd

unveiling the heterogeneous effect of energy taxes and income on residential energy consumption abstract the paper investigates the effect of energy taxes in the european union eu across different levels of residential final energy consumption rfec in the period 2005 2016 the analysis is based on quantile panel regression models that directly and indirectly consider energy taxes more precisely the developed models provide a multivariate framework for evaluating their effects and at the same time for validating the existence of the energy environmental kuznets curve ekc across the selected quantiles the results unveil significant heterogeneity in the rfec responses across quantiles specifically in less energy consuming eu countries an increase in energy taxes and energy prices influences stronger rfec and the rebound effect of real income and tertiary education is greater than in their more energy consuming peers moreover in the former the energy ekc hypothesis holds while in the latter its existence is not clear as well as the rebound effect caused by highly educated people consequently eu energy policy aiming at achieving energy and environmental targets has to consider the heterogeneity in rfec since the outcomes might be different for different energy consuming groups of countries

tricks with hicks the easi demand system we invent implicit marshallian demands which combine desirable features of hicksian and marshallian demands we propose and estimate the exact affine stone index easi implicit marshallian demand system like the almost ideal demand aid system easi budget shares are linear in parameters given real expenditures however unlike the aid easi demands can have any rank and its engel curves can have any shape over real expenditures easi error terms equal random utility parameters to account for unobserved preference heterogeneity easi demand functions can be estimated using gmm or three stage least squares and like aid an approximate easi model can be estimated by linear regression

the use and abuse of meta analysis in environmental and natural resource economics an assessment motivated by the 2006 report of a work group appointed by the environmental protection agency epa this paper examines the present state of meta analysis in environmental economics and offers recommendations for its future use to this end we summarize and assess 140 meta analyses from 125 published and unpublished studies covering 17 topical categories in environmental and resource economics first we provide several generic meta analysis models as reference points and discuss major estimation issues five econometric issues are identified as part of a complete analysis 1 sample selection criteria 2 basic data summary 3 primary data heterogeneity 4 heteroskedasticity and 5 non independence of multiple observations from primary studies second a tabular summary is presented for the 140 meta analyses with respect to estimation methods third a narrative summary is presented for 19 meta analyses including the three value of statistical life studies examined by the epa work group and one analysis from each of 16 other categories fourth we offer a set of best practice guidelines for future meta analyses in this and other areas of economics last the paper comments on the use of meta analytic methods for benefit transfers of environmental values

price and income elasticities of oil demand in mauritius an empirical analysis using cointegration method abstract there are no studies that quantify the effects of price and income on the demand of fuel oil gasoline and diesel oil in mauritius in line with increasing retail prices for these commodities there is no estimation of the effect that increasing price income and other variables like electricity and vehicle stock have on demand of petroleum products which affects effective policymaking in this area this study uses an ardl ecm model to determine consumer response on petroleum demand when price and income in mauritius changes the study determines the income and price elasticities of demand which is a needed parameter in transportation and taxation policies it was found that gasoline is price and income inelastic in the short run diesel oil is income inelastic in the long run and fuel oil is inelastic in the short run but becomes elastic in the long run other variables being not significant the effect of rising electricity consumption on fuel oil demand was to a ratio of 1 1 1 on average vehicle stock is estimated to cause unprecedented increase in gasoline demand by nearly 3 1 on average results are essential for transportation and energy taxation policymaking

fuel taxes an important instrument for climate policy abstract this article shows that fuel taxes serve a very important role for the environment and that we risk a backlash of increased emissions if they are abolished fuel taxes have restrained growth in fuel demand and associated carbon emissions although fuel demand is large and growing our analysis shows that it would have been much higher in the absence of domestic fuel taxes people often assert that fuel demand is inelastic but there is strong research evidence showing the opposite the price elasticity is in fact quite high but only in the long run in the short run it may be quite inelastic which has important implications for policy makers had europe not followed a policy of high fuel taxation but had low us taxes then fuel demand would have been twice as large hypothetical transport demand in the whole oecd area is calculated for various tax scenarios and the results show that fuel taxes are the single most powerful climate policy instrument implemented to date yet this fact is not usually given due attention in the debate

inter fuel substitution in european industry a random utility approach on industrial heat demand abstract as the majority of industrial emissions stems from heat generation the choice of fuel is next to energy efficiency one of the tools to influence climate impact and security of supply in industrial energy use at the same time the choice of fuel is not only a matter of price but of the furnace it is used in top down models often struggle to include technological explicitness which is especially important to represent the heterogeneous structure of industrial energy demand in this paper an approach to apply a discrete choice model to industrial high temperature energy demand is presented the model s parameters are estimated based on observed fuel choices the model exhibits an average coefficient of determination of 0 45 when compared to a constant fuel use from 2002 to 2013 in major countries of the european union results suggest that energy carriers are perceived very differently by industrial consumers

from frugal jane to wasteful john a quantile regression analysis of swiss households electricity demand abstract in this article we investigate the heterogeneity in the responsiveness of swiss household electricity demand to changes in prices and income we focus on segments of consumers with different intensities of electricity consumption by using a panel quantile regression approach this estimation strategy is applied to a rich micro level longitudinal data set of 3880 observations from more than 1400 households matched with a unique price data set extracted from the swiss electricity regulator s online sources while the findings show an inelastic electricity demand across all groups an interesting pattern of variation emerges between lower and upper quantiles of electricity demand respectively frugal and intensive users results show that households in the first conditional quartile and at the median react significantly to changes in prices while those at the lowest quantile and upper quantiles exhibit insignificant price elasticities the main policy implications of this work concern the design of price based measures for reducing electricity consumption in the residential sector and the possibility of accounting for individual responses in tailoring policies for specific consumer segments

what have we learned about policy and growth from cross country regressions economists have been seeking to comprehend why some countries are rich and others poor for well over 200 years a better understanding of the national policies associated with long run growth would both contribute to our ability to explain cross country differences in per capita incomes and provide a basis for making policy recommendations that could lead to improvements in human welfare recently economists have used cross country regressions to search for empirical linkages between longrun growth and indicators of national policies e g roger kormendi and philip meguire 1985 robert j barro 1991 the large cross country growth literature has identified various fiscal monetary trade exchange rate and financial policy indicators that are significantly correlated with longrun growth yet levine and david renelt 1992 show that many of these findings are fragile to small alterations in the conditioning information set that is small changes in the right hand side variables produce different conclusions regarding the relationship between individual policies and growth in this paper we take stock of what the profession has learned from cross country regression studies of policy and long run growth i limitations

estimating the value and distributional effects of free state schooling the effects of free of charge state education on income distribution are often studied by allocating government education outlays to households assuming that these outlays equal the benefit which households attach to state schooling this paper proposes a demand analysis approach to estimating the true value of state education as perceived by consumers and uses the results to assess the inefficiency of public provision empirical analysis based on data from cyprus suggests that state schooling costs twice the amount households are willing to pay for the implications of this finding for the equality and anti poverty effects of state education are illustrated

emissions reduction scenarios in the argentinean energy sector in this paper the leap tiam ecn and gcam models were applied to evaluate the impact of a variety of climate change control policies including carbon pricing and emission constraints relative to a base year on primary energy consumption final energy consumption electricity sector development and co2 emission savings of the energy sector in argentina over the 2010 2050 period the leap model results indicate that if argentina fully implements the most feasible mitigation measures currently under consideration by official bodies and key academic institutions on energy supply and demand such as the probiomass program a cumulative incremental economic cost of 22 8 billion us 2005 to 2050 is expected resulting in a 16 reduction in ghg emissions compared to a business as usual scenario these measures also bring economic co benefits such as a reduction of energy imports improving the balance of trade a low co2 price scenario in leap results in the replacement of coal by nuclear and wind energy in electricity expansion a high co2 price leverages additional investments in hydropower by way of cross model comparison with the tiam ecn and gcam global integrated assessment models significant variation in projected emissions reductions in the carbon price scenarios was observed which illustrates the inherent uncertainties associated with such long term projections these models predict approximately 37 and 94 reductions under the high co2 price scenario respectively by comparison the leap model using an approach based on the assessment of a limited set of mitigation options predicts an 11 3 reduction the main reasons for this difference include varying assumptions about technology cost and availability co2 storage capacity and the ability to import bioenergy an emission cap scenario 2050 emissions 20 lower than 2010 emissions is feasible by including such measures as ccs and bio ccs but at a significant cost in terms of technology pathways the models agree that fossil fuels in particular natural gas will remain an important part of the electricity mix in the core baseline scenario according to the models there is agreement that the introduction of a carbon price will lead to a decline in absolute and relative shares of aggregate fossil fuel generation however predictions vary as to the extent to which coal nuclear and renewable energy play a role

fossil fuel subsidies in the pacific island context analysis of the case of kiribati abstract kiribati is highly vulnerable to climate change induced sea level rise at the same time the country is also very dependent on fossil fuel imports kiribati uses price controls and tax exemptions to make fossil fuels more affordable for low income households this study reviews the subsidies on consumption of fossil fuels specifically gasoline diesel and household kerosene in kiribati and investigates their macroeconomic fiscal distributional and environmental impact the subsidies are quantified using price gap approach over a five year period the subsidies were on average aud 4 2 million when using 2011 2015 data with 2015 tax policies this is equivalent to 2 2 per cent of kiribati gdp over 2011 2014 the average fiscal impact would have been equivalent to 3 7 per cent of government revenues and 29 per cent of government health expenditure apart from being a fiscal burden the subsidies increase greenhouse gas emissions and make kiribati even more dependent on fossil fuel imports and more vulnerable to volatility in international fuel prices no evidence was found to support the argument for using the subsidies to support low income households in fact there are signs of considerable leakages to high income households which is consistent with findings from studies in other countries

risk sharing and growth the role of precautionary savings in the education model while the risk amelioration literature suggests that risk sharing channels savings into risky but productive technologies and hence favours growth models focused on precautionary savings reverse this conclusion we solve by means of numerical techniques a model based on human capital accumulation through education and find that the increase in precautionary savings makes labour more productive in the goods sector and draws resources from education which is the growth leading activity hence we establish a result favourable to financial integration even in a model where precautionary savings play an important role

gasoline demand revisited an international meta analysis of elasticities meta analysis is used to determine if there are factors that systematically affect price and income elasticity estimates in studies of gasoline demand four econometric models are estimated using long run and short run price and income elasticity estimates from previous studies as the dependent variables explanatory variables include functional form lag structure time span national setting estimation technique and other features of the model structure elasticity estimates are found to be sensitive to the inclusion or exclusion of some measure of vehicle ownership static models appear to overestimate short run elasticities underestimate long run price elasticities but pick up the full long run income responsiveness there is variation in the elasticity of demand across countries especially in the short run and gasoline demand appears to be getting more price elastic and less income elastic over time

carbon pricing effectiveness and equity abstract the 2015 paris agreement adopted the goal of limiting the rise in global mean temperature to 1 5 2 c above pre industrial levels carbon pricing can play a key role in meeting this objective a cap and permit system or alternatively a carbon tax indexed to a fixed emission reduction trajectory not only can spur cost effective mitigation and cost reducing innovation but also crucially can ensure that emissions are held to the target level the carbon prices needed to meet this constraint are likely to be considerably higher however than existing prices and conventional measures of the social cost of carbon this poses issues of distributional equity and political sustainability that can be addressed by universal dividends funded by carbon revenues

a life cycle consistent empirical model of family labour supply using cross section data this paper estimates a utility maximising model of the joint determination of male and female labour supplies using a sample of married couples from the u k family expenditure survey the emphasis is on the estimation of within period preferences that are consistent with intertemporal two stage budgeting under uncertainty however the approach we adopt provides an alternative method of estimating certain aspects of life cycle behaviour to the fixed effects constant approach of heckman and macurdy 1980 macurdy 1981 and browning deaton and irish 1985 moreover it relaxes some of the underlying restrictions that are implicit in these constant models under uncertainty

impacts of oil price shocks on the united states economy a meta analysis of the oil price elasticity of gdp for net oil importing economies policy makers are interested in estimates of the potential economic impacts of oil price shocks particularly during periods of rapid and large increases that accompany severe supply shocks literature estimates of the economic impacts of oil price shocks summarized by the oil price elasticity of gdp span a very wide range due to both fundamental economic and methodological factors this paper presents a quantitative meta analysis of the oil price elasticity of gdp for net oil importing countries with a focus on the united states us the full range of estimates of the oil price elasticity of gdp for the us in the data is 0 124 to 0 017 accounting for different methodologies data and other factors we employ a meta regression model that controls for key determinant factors to estimate the mean and variance of the gdp elasticity across studies we use a robust estimation technique to deal with heterogeneity of the data and well known econometric issues that confront meta analysis the resulting regression model is used to simulate the oil price elasticity of gdp for the us with a mean of 0 020 and 68 confidence interval of 0 035 to 0 006 four quarters after a shock

estimates of ghg emission reduction potential by country sector and cost abstract in this study emission reduction potentials in greenhouse gases ghg are assessed by country sector and cost using a ghg emission reduction assessment model with high resolutions with respect to region and technology and high consistency in terms of assumptions interrelationships and solution principles model analyses show that large potential reductions can be achieved at low cost in developing countries and power sectors in addition cost efficient emission reductions were evaluated for some international emission reduction targets that have been derived on the basis of the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities among developed and developing countries if 1 emission reduction measures at negative costs and below 50 tco 2 for developed countries 2 intensity improvement measures for selected sectors at negative costs and below 20 tco 2 for major developing countries and 3 all emission reduction measures with negative costs for other developing countries in 2020 are adopted then emission reductions of 8 9 14 8 and 27 7 gtco 2 eq yr compared to the technology frozen case can be expected in developed countries major developing countries and globally corresponding to a 11 decrease 40 increase and 17 increase from 2005 levels respectively large scale emission reductions can be achieved even if co 2 intensity targets for major sectors are assumed for major developing countries

best nonparametric bounds on demand responses this paper uses revealed preference inequalities to provide the tightest possible best nonparametric bounds on predicted consumer responses to price changes using consumer level data over a finite set of relative price changes these responses are allowed to vary nonparametrically across the income distribution this is achieved by combining the theory of revealed preference with the semiparametric estimation of consumer expansion paths engel curves we label these expansion path based bounds on demand responses as e bounds deviations from revealed preference restrictions are measured by preference perturbations which are shown to usefully characterize taste change and to provide a stochastic environment within which violations of revealed preference inequalities can be assessed

how serious is the aggregation problem an empirical illustration heterogeneity in consumer behaviour may create problems with aggregation across consumers if so we may not be able to make correct inferences about behaviour based on aggregated data however using micro estimates to predict aggregate demand responses to policy changes may also create a bias if not aggregated properly this may sound like a catch 22 situation but it is not as it is possible to calculate both micro and aggregate demand responses based on microdata the size of the aggregation bias is an empirical question in this article we show how to calculate theoretically consistent aggregate demand responses we use both micro and macro data for norwegian household electricity consumption to illustrate the magnitude and direction of different aggregation biases we find considerable aggregation biases in particular when estimating with macro data

the impacts of energy efficiency policies meta analysis abstract this paper attempts to quantitatively summarize the existing empirical evidence on the effects of energy efficiency policies on energy demand and on the price of associated durable goods as well as to identify the main factors that systematically affect the estimated impacts to this end a meta regression analysis of the effects of energy efficiency policies is carried out on the basis of an extensive review of the existing literature selecting those studies that analyze the impact of energy efficiency policies with respect to a business as usual setting taking into account the econometric problems associated with this type of analysis intra class correlation cross sectional dependence publication bias in pursuit of robust outcomes the results show that the studies analyzing the effects of energy efficiency policies estimate a significant impact of these policies on energy demand 10 5 8 8 and the price of related durable goods 7 9 6 the main factors that influence results are the policy instrument the targeted sector the type of country the analyzed period the consideration of free riders and the type of analysis data and publication energy demand and the sector and analyzed period price of durables

how a symmetric is the response of import demand to changes in its determinants evidence from european energy imports abstract energy imports are crucial for european countries yet little is known about determinants of their import demand we update long outdated estimates of import demand elasticities using recent data for crude and derived energy products and contribute to the debate on the asymmetry of import demand by using recent developments in econometric modelling our results have important implications for the geopolitics of energy markets in europe asymmetric income seems to be the most relevant determinant of import demand economic growth and fossil fuel consumption are correlated even in the context of the european agenda towards renewables our results suggest that european economic recovery may derail the drive for lower fossil consumption and that changes in the natural gas market may further complicate this drive especially regarding russia as the primary supplier to the eurozone

price and income elasticities of residential and industrial electricity demand in the european union this study examines the short and long run price and income elasticities of residential and industrial electricity demand in the european union between 1996 and 2016 instrumental variable models using the between estimator as well as dynamic panel models are employed to present robust estimates and to assess the impact of different methodologies on the reported elasticities the long run price elasticity of residential electricity consumption is estimated between 0 53 and 0 56 these elasticities are more inelastic than that of industrial electricity use which is reported between 0 75 and 1 01 the choice of different econometric methodologies has only moderate impact on the estimates while long run residential income elasticity estimates are moderately inelastic and estimated around 0 61 industrial electricity use tends to be closely tied to income with elasticities between 0 76 and 1 08 electricity demand in all sectors is highly price and income inelastic in the short run additionally population density temperatures and policy measures also influence sectoral electricity use the above estimates can aid the design of european energy and environmental policy

a meta analysis on the price elasticity of energy demand abstract price elasticities of energy demand have become increasingly relevant in estimating the socio economic and environmental effects of energy policies or other events that influence the price of energy goods since the 1970s a large number of academic papers have provided both short and long term price elasticity estimates for different countries using several models data and estimation techniques yet the literature offers a rather wide range of estimates for the price elasticities of demand for energy this paper quantitatively summarizes the recent but sizeable empirical evidence to facilitate a sounder economic assessment of in some cases policy related energy price changes it uses meta analysis to identify the main factors affecting short and long term elasticity results for energy in general as well as for specific products i e electricity natural gas gasoline diesel and heating oil

linking soy oil demand from the us renewable fuel standard to palm oil expansion through an analysis on vegetable oil price elasticities abstract the united states us renewable fuel standard and california s low carbon fuel standard support the use of soy biodiesel and renewable diesel in the transport fuel supply for climate mitigation however linkages between the markets for soy oil and palm oil which is associated with very high land use change emissions could negatively affect the climate performance of soy based biofuels this study estimates the own and cross price elasticities for the supply of soy and palm oils in the us using country level data from 1992 to 2016 under rational expectations through a seemingly unrelated regressions system of equations we find a positive cross price elasticity of palm oil import with respect to soy oil price and a positive reaction of supply of soy oil to increase in prices of palm oil these results suggest that us biofuel policies may underestimate substitution between soy and palm oils and thus overestimate the climate benefits from soy based biofuel

economic growth and human capital accumulation simultaneity and expanded convergence tests abstract earlier economic growth studies are extended to account for simultaneity between economic growth and human capital accumulation the speed of income convergence and contribution of human capital to economic growth are underestimated if contemporaneous human capital growth effects are ignored

consumer responses to gasoline price and non price policies abstract gasoline consumption in emerging economies have been rising rapidly due to economic growth and increasing urbanization rate in recent years however the development has brought about new socio economic and environmental challenges leading governments to adopt various policies to control the trend although the impacts of price changes on gasoline consumption are well researched in the literature studies on different policies in a specific country is limited in this paper we investigate the impact of three distinct policies price reform rationing and fuel efficiency on consumer responses in iran we estimate price income and efficiency elasticities across household characteristics income groups and provinces using the aids model and the household expenditures data for the period 2005 2016 the results show that the average price elasticity is 76 however it varies across household characteristics time and space the price responses are greater in provinces neighbouring the countries with high price differentials and welfare losses of price reform are more sever for lower income families the estimated elasticities under different policy regimes show that energy price reform has led to significantly higher elasticities while rationing has led to decreased elasticities the more stringent efficiency regulation and increasing imports of fuel efficient cars have also increased elasticities

time varying income and price elasticities for energy demand evidence from a middle income panel abstract we estimate time varying income and price elasticities for energy demand for a 26 country middle income balanced panel that spans 1996 2014 to do so we employ a recently developed local linear dummy estimation method to estimate the trend and coefficient functions we find that the price elasticity for energy demand is either insignificant or positive and small while the income elasticity for energy demand behaves in a non linear fashion over time it is always less than unity and is generally within 0 6 0 8 a gdp elasticity of less than one suggests that these middle income countries are on the right hand side of an inverted u energy intensity gdp path that is consistent with the dematerialization process also this finding suggests that energy intensity but not energy consumption in these countries will fall with economic growth hence intensity based targets may be met in a business as usual setting but aggregate or per capita based carbon emissions targets would likely require policy interventions

education and economic growth a meta regression analysis summary this paper surveys the literature which examines the effect of education on economic growth specifically we apply meta regression analysis to 57 studies with 989 estimates and show that there is substantial publication selection bias toward a positive impact of education on growth once we account for this the genuine growth effect of education is not homogeneous across studies but varies according to several factors specifically it is attributed to differences in education measurement and study characteristics mainly model specification as well as type of data used and the quality of research outlets where studies are published e g academic journals vs working papers

welfare comparison under exact aggregation new econometric model of aggregate consumer behavior in the united states and to apply this model to the analysis of impacts of alternative economic policies on the welfare of individual consuming units the model incorporates time series data on quantities consumed prices the level and distribution of income and demographic characteristics of the population it also incorporates cross section data on the allocation of consumer expenditures for households with different demographic characteristics our econometric model is based on the theory of exact aggregation developed by lau 1977a c this theory makes it possible to dispense with the notion of a representative consumer in constructing models of aggregate consumer behavior one of the most remarkable implications of lau s theory of exact aggregation is that systems of demand functions for individuals with common demographic characteristics can be recovered uniquely from the system of aggregate demand functions using the individual demand functions we can analyze the impact of economic policy on consumer welfare

gasoline and diesel demand in the eu implications for the 2030 emission goal abstract methodologically consistent demand estimates are necessary to analyze and forecast the effect of a common fuel policy across the eu 28 this study estimates short run and long run price and income elasticities for gasoline and diesel demands using the ardl bounds approach that also tests the existence of a long run relationship using data from 1978 to 2013 the results show that elasticity estimates between the eu 28 countries vary and the estimated long run elasticities are higher than their short run counterparts which is in line with expectations based on the existing literature the short run and long run income elasticities of gasoline and diesel demand are found to be more elastic than their price equivalents implying that if a charge on fuel is designed to decrease emissions by increasing the price the charge needs to rise at a higher rate than income an analysis of the eu s 2030 emission and fuel consumption reduction targets using the estimated long run elasticities shows that with the current tax scheme it cannot be guaranteed that emission targets will be achieved and thus a more stringent fuel tax policy is essential

meta regression analysis a quantitative method of literature surveys abstract pedagogically literature reviews are instrumental they summarize the large literature written on a particular topic give coherence to the complex often disparate views expressed about an issue and serve as a springboard for new ideas however literature surveys rarely establish anything approximating unanimous consensus ironically this is just as true for the empirical economic literature to harmonize this dissonance we offer a quantitative methodology for reviewing the empirical economic literature meta regression analysis mra is the regression analysis of regression analyses mra tends to objectify the review process it studies the processes that produce empirical economic results as though they were any other social scientific phenomenon mra provides a framework for replication and offers a sensitivity analysis for model specification in this brief essay we propose a new method of reviewing economic literature mra and discuss its potential

the contributions of angus deaton angus deaton was awarded the 2015 sveriges riksbank prize in economic sciences in memory of alfred nobel for his analysis of consumption poverty and welfare this article reviews his contributions to economics

simple tests of distributional effects on macroeconomic equations the presence of distributional effects in macroeconomic equations is shown to coincide with nonlinearity in micro behavioral relationships parameters estimated with aggregate data as in representative agent models contain distributional biases that are not measurable using aggregate data alone tests for distributional effects and other measures of the extent of aggregation problems are derived using distributional data observed over time significant distributional effects are noted for a model of annual aggregate u s commodity expenditure data a static model that accommodates individual heterogeneity is found to be statistically equivalent to a simply dynamic model that accommodates first order autocorrelation

how revealing is revealed preference this lecture address the following two key criticisms of the empirical application of revealed preference theory when the rp conditions do not reject they do not provide precise predictions and when they do reject they do not help characterize the nature of irrationality or the degree direction of changing tastes recent developments in the application of rp theory are shown to have rendered these criticisms unfounded a powerful test of rationality is available that also provides a natural characterization of changing tastes tight bounds on demand responses and on the welfare costs of relative price and tax changes are also available and are shown to work well in practice

carbon tax incidence on household demand effects on welfare income inequality and poverty incidence in thailand abstract studying the impact of a carbon tax on household demand can be relevant in terms of securing public acceptance of a carbon tax and clarifying the implications for policy design this paper aims to fill a gap in the academic literature by simulating carbon tax scenarios and estimating distributional effects of the tax on household welfare income inequality and poverty rates based on household consumption in thailand the study employs a microsimulation model incorporating the economy wide effects of the tax on prices and consumers behavioral responses to changes in prices the results indicate that a carbon tax is progressive in thailand under revenue recycling scenarios by expanding social transfer programs when carbon tax revenues are recycled through pensions for elderly people the carbon tax could reduce the poverty rate and improve the welfare of households in the lowest quintile the results imply that the distributional impacts of environmental taxes could result in favorable outcomes for income inequality and poverty reduction in developing countries

human capital and economic growth tests based on the international evaluation of educational achievement abstract using the secondary school science achievement scores obtained by the international association for the evaluation of educational achievement this paper provides more direct tests than others on the effect of human capital on economic growth bearing important implications for theory and olicy

power markets in transition decarbonization energy efficiency and short term demand response abstract energy efficiency and short term demand response are key issues in the decarbonization of power markets however their interaction and combined impact on market prices as well as on the supply side is yet to be understood we develop a framework to implement short term demand response and investments in energy efficiency in detailed partial equilibrium power market models we quantify our results using the eu regen model for the european power market under an 80 emission reduction target energy efficiency contributes only 11 of carbon emission reductions intermittent renewable energies such as wind and solar power account for the major share of 53 in comparison to a scenario without short term demand response and energy efficiency investments 70 gw gas power is decommissioned immediately and 180 gw less gas capacity is needed in 2050 which underlines the need for immediate action by policy makers to avoid locking the eu power market into an inefficient path

review of key international demand elasticities for major industrializing economies abstract this paper conducts a selective review of various estimates for energy demand responses focused specially upon lower income industrializing economies rather than richer mature nations it emphasizes recent trends from empirical studies that have been published after 2000 emphasis is placed on the five major emerging or transitional economies in brazil china india mexico and russia although other important nations like chile and south korea are also discussed when studies are available the review focuses attention on the long run responses to changes in prices and income after capital stock turnover has been completed the terminology often refers to elasticities or the percentage change in energy use divided by the percentage change in price or income holding constant all other factors that could influence energy use decisions estimates cover petroleum products natural gas and electricity although the available studies often ignore coal they also include the economy wide impacts real gdp to price changes most studies have focused upon household and transportation use of liquid fuels many fewer studies have investigated fuels used by industry or commerce or for electric generation based upon the available estimates price and income elasticities for liquid fuels are generally less than one unity for many countries and sectors except for the long run income effect for transportation purposes which can range widely by country between 0 24 and 1 75 while averaging 0 94 for all countries

leaving oil underground in ecuador the yasuni itt initiative from a multi criteria perspective abstract the ecuadorian proposal to keep 846 million barrels of crude oil in the yasuni national park underground for the purposes of avoiding co2 emissions and to protect both the biological diversity and the indigenous peoples in isolation who inhabit this area of the amazon is evaluated from a multi criteria analysis the main purpose of the paper is to compare this policy option with other alternatives across different values an analytical framework is used that recognises the inherent complexity of a problem of this nature in which the financial values are indeed relevant for policy but other values are also relevant the economic in a broad sense social environmental cultural and political the results confirm that from a financial standpoint extracting the oil is preferable but by incorporating the non monetary values into the multi criteria decision process one can plausibly defend the yasuni itt initiative as the most desirable policy option indeed the social and environmental benefits or criteria signalling an economic transition towards a model based on renewable sources of energy along with the protection of critical environmental and social capital make up for the financial gap

estimation of elasticities for electricity demand in brazilian households and policy implications abstract this paper aims to identify the demand elasticity in energy consumption by brazilian families by using an original household level sample we are the first to identify the average price and income elasticities for brazil we also investigate heterogeneous effects across different quantiles through a quantile regression qr analysis finally we extend the results of the qr analysis and combine them with aggregated data to assess the effects of two price policies a cross subsidy and the recently adopted tariff flags the primary data comes from the household budget survey pof for two periods 1998 99 and 2008 13 conducted in the metropolitan area of sao paulo the price and income elasticities range from 0 46 to 0 56 and from 0 20 to 0 32 respectively the qr results indicate that households behavioral response to a price increase is non uniform across groups and that the reaction is stronger for the lower quantiles additionally tariff flags lead to a more significant reduction in consumption for the low income residences therefore representing a regressive policy on the other hand a cross subsidy that increases the energy price to ordinary residences by 1 could mean a decrease in electricity prices of between 7 5 and 12 4 to low income families

the effects of male and female labor supply on commodity demands we examine the effects of male and female labor supply on household demands and present a simple and robust test for the separability of commodity demands from labor supply using data on individual households from six years of the uk fes we estimate a demand system for seven goods which includes hours and participation dummies as conditioning variables allowance is made for the possible endogeneity of these conditioning labor supply variables we find that separability is rejected furthermore we present evidence that ignoring the effects of labor supply leads to bias in the parameter estimates

analysing gasoline demand elasticities a survey this paper is a survey of studies on gasoline demand although there are very many dxerent studies in this eld which sometimes appear to arrive at contradictory results we find that with proper stratification of studies by model and data type much of the contict turns to consensus in this survey we classtfy studies by data type and by ten d erent categories of model and with the exception of estimates on seasonal data which tend to be unstable and of certain inappropriate model formulations we find a fair degree of agreement concerning average short run and even long run income and price elasticities

energy contribution to latin american indcs analyzing sub regional trends with a times model central and south america and the caribbean countries share energy and climate features that are quite different from the rest of the world including a highly renewable energy mix and very high renewable energy potentials along with high deforestation and degradation rates which call for regional answers to regional issues this paper assesses the impact of national contributions to the united nations framework convention on climate change using an energy prospective model from the markal times family this approach enables a bottom up comparison between past pledges nationally appropriate mitigation actions and the nationally determined contributions ndcs agreed on at cop21 long term economic optimization leads to decarbonizing the power sector even in the absence of climate constraints stringent climate policies as modeled here achieve emission reductions of 40 below the current baseline by 2050 ndcs produce stronger emission reductions than namas at regional scale however the first contributor to emission reductions in absolute terms in latin america is the agriculture forestry and other land use afolu sector not energy

the environmental paradox in generation how south america is gradually becoming more dependent on thermal generation there has been an increasing focus on global warming emission of green house gases ghg and the problems this might create in this article we review the trend in sustainable and renewable electricity generation in south america where the generation portfolio increasingly depends on thermal generation in particular gas south america is a region that has relatively low emissions but the current development is not desirable in environmental terms we analyze the underlying reasons for this development which is related to security of supply deregulation and the cost of renewable energy we review and discuss the policies to promote renewables in the region we analyze the potential advantages and drawbacks of different types of market interventions such as direct subsidies that create potentially strong market distortions more sophisticated market interventions that might be less intrusive but not necessarily as effective as e g firm energy markets we also review market based solutions such as the clean market mechanism and its potential and the use of renewable electricity in non interconnected zones which might be one of the most economically attractive applications of renewables however without a stronger and more aggressive intervention from the governments in the region it is unlikely that the increase in thermal generation can be stopped

elasticities of transport fuels at times of economic crisis an empirical analysis for spain abstract this paper provides an updated calculation of the price and income responsiveness of spanish consumers of transport fuels with an explicit exploration of the effects of the recent economic crisis we examine separate gasoline and diesel demand models using a set of estimators on a panel of 16 spanish regions over the period 1999 2015 the paper confirms the persistence of low own price elasticities both for diesel and gasoline in the short and long runs it also shows that the crisis of 2008 2013 slightly increased the price elasticity of demand for transport fuels with a higher effect on diesel than on gasoline by contrary the crisis slightly reduced the income elasticity of transport fuel demand given the intensity and length of the economic recession in spain the results of this paper may be useful to anticipate the effects of domestic public policies that impact transport fuel prices as well as to advance some of the potential consequences of crises elsewhere

a meta analysis of the price elasticity of gasoline demand a sur approach abstract automobile gasoline demand can be expressed as a multiplicative function of fuel efficiency mileage per car and car ownership this implies a linear relationship between the price elasticity of total fuel demand and the price elasticities of fuel efficiency mileage per car and car ownership in this meta analytical study we aim to investigate and explain the variation in empirical estimates of the price elasticity of gasoline demand a methodological novelty is that we use the linear relationship between the elasticities to develop a meta analytical estimation approach based on a seemingly unrelated regression sur model with cross equation restrictions this approach enables us to combine observations of different elasticities and thus increase our sample size furthermore it allows for a more detailed interpretation of our meta regression results the empirical results of the study demonstrate that the sur approach leads to more precise results i e lower standard errors than a standard meta analytical approach we find that with mean short run and long run price elasticities of 0 34 and 0 84 respectively the demand for gasoline is not very price sensitive both in the short and the long run the impact of a change in the gasoline price on demand is mainly driven by responses in fuel efficiency and mileage per car and to a slightly lesser degree by changes in car ownership furthermore we find that study characteristics relating to the geographic area studied the year of the study the type of data used the time horizon and the functional specification of the demand equation have a significant impact on the estimated value of the price elasticity of gasoline demand

the welfare effects of unprecedented electricity price hikes in zambia abstract this paper simulates the real household expenditure effects of large electricity price increases in zambia first we find that electricity subsidies are highly regressive the richest household quintile receives over 60 of the subsidies while the poorest quintile receives less than 1 second our partial equilibrium simulations of the welfare effects of a 75 electricity price increase show that the poorest households would experience a 3 times larger percentage loss in real expenditure compared to the wealthiest households naturally these adverse effects lead to an increase in poverty however we find that transferring the fiscal savings realised from the complete elimination of electricity subsidies to the poor reduces extreme poverty significantly this budget neutral strategy is particularly attractive for zambia and other sub saharan economies currently battling the twin challenges of widening budget deficits and high extreme poverty

a meta analysis on the price elasticity and income elasticity of residential electricity demand abstract price elasticity and income elasticity can quantitatively measure the impact of price volatility and income diversity on household electricity demand to analyze household electricity demand and better identify the main factors affecting residential electricity demand elasticity in previous literature a meta analysis based on a comprehensive and systematic summary of 103 articles is presented in this study the influencing factors are identified with a weighed least squares wls linear regression model to evaluate their strength the price elasticities and income elasticities are discussed from three dimensions namely short term long term and unmarked the results show that residential electricity demand is almost price inelastic and income inelastic in the short term but in the long term some residential electricity demand is price elastic and income elastic the results also reveal that residential electricity demand elasticity is affected by many factors such as time interval and sample period these conclusions can support the formulation of more effective electricity price and energy policy

measuring global gasoline and diesel price and income elasticities abstract price and income elasticities of transport fuel demand have numerous applications they help forecast increases in fuel consumption as countries get richer they help develop appropriate tax policies to curtail consumption help determine how the transport fuel mix might evolve and show the price response to a fuel disruption given their usefulness it is understandable why hundreds of studies have focused on measuring such elasticities for gasoline and diesel fuel consumption in this paper i focus my attention on price and income elasticities in the existing studies to see what can be learned from them i summarize the elasticities from these historical studies i use statistical analysis to investigate whether income and price elasticities seem to be constant across countries with different incomes and prices although income and price elasticities for gasoline and diesel fuel are not found to be the same at high and low incomes and at high and low prices patterns emerge that allow me to develop suggested price and income elasticities for gasoline and diesel demand for over one hundred countries i adjust these elasticities for recent fuel mix policies and suggest an agenda of future research topics

meta analysis of empirical evidence on energy poverty the case of developing economies abstract energy poverty has evolved as an important issue of research from academic and policy perspectives during the last two decades the energy poverty estimates exhibit widespread variations across regions methodologies and datasets making the task of energy and development policies challenging the variations in energy poverty estimates necessitate a systematic and rigorous analysis of these empirical studies to obtain a true measure of energy poverty the present study conducts a meta analysis of 30 studies and 103 estimates of energy poverty on average 71 1 percent of the population in the overall sample studies has been identified as energy poor high i square statistic values suggest heterogeneity bias in the sample studies therefore analysis at the subgroup level has been conducted meta regression analysis of overall sample and subgroups has identified type of methodology citations impact factor of the journal regional dummies average key crude oil price and gross domestic product as significant factors that explain heterogeneity in the energy poverty effect sizes we recommend inclusion of local and regional factors in assessment of energy poverty for developing a uniform methodology to assess energy poverty across developing economies

what do we learn about consumer demand patterns from micro data the aim of this paper is to assess the importance of using micro level data in the econometric analysis of consumer demand to do this we utilize a time series of repeated cross sections covering some 4 000 households in each of 15 years employing a number of different aggregation procedures we conclude that aggregate data alone are unlikely to produce reliable estimates of structural price and income coefficients however once certain aggregation factors as well as trend and seasonal components are included an aggregate model is not necessarily outperformed across all demand equations in terms of forecasting ability jel d12 c52 c31 the purpose of this paper is to develop a complete consumer demand system based on a time series of individual household data and to use it to measure the biases introduced into the study of consumer de mand behavior when aggregate data are used in place of the appropriate microeco nomic data we assess the suitability of ag gregate data through the impact on income and price elasticities and by evaluating the ability of both micro and aggregate based models to forecast aggregate consumer de mand the biases introduced by the use of aggregate data depend upon the way that household characteristics interact with in come and price effects and on departures of demand systems from linearity we explore the structure of microeconomic demand sys tems and the role of household characteris tics in the behavior of consumer demand both for the light this may shed on the pattern of future demands and for the im plications this behavior has for issues of aggregation consumer demand patterns typically found in micro data sets vary considerably across households with different household characteristics and with different levels of income we model this variability by making intercept and slope parameters in the budget share equations of our demand sys tem depend on household characteristics and by allowing for nonlinear total log expenditure terms in fact in theory consistent demand systems it is total ex penditure rather than disposable income that is allocated across goods we find that this general framework leads to a well specified data coherent demand system which is a quadratic extension of the popu lar almost ideal model of angus s deaton and john muellbauer 1980 the micro level estimates are shown to be sensitive to the treatment of endogeneity of total expen diture and to the specification of interaction terms with household characteristics in ad dition this specification is also shown to possess many attractive features for the evaluation of aggregate models

estimation of complete demand systems from household budget data the linear and quadratic expenditure systems in this paper we explore two issues in empirical demand analysis the estimation of complete systems of demand equations using household budget data section i and the incorporation of demographic characteristics into such systems section ii although there are numerous studies which use time series data to estimate complete demand systems and many which estimate engel curves from household budget data there are virtually none which combine budget data from different periods to estimate complete systems since each budget study corresponds to a single price situation one might conjecture that estimation of complete systems would not be possible unless budget studies were available from a large number of periods this is incorrect in section i we argue that interesting complete demand systems can be estimated from a small number of budget studies despite the limited price variability represented in such data to demonstrate this we use budget study data for two periods to estimate a pair of related demand systems the familiar linear expenditure system les and a quadratic expenditure system qes a generalization of les in which the demand equations are quadratic in total expenditure the inclusion of demographic variables in the analysis of household consumption patterns is desirable because there are likely to be systematic differences in the consumption behavior of households with different demographic characteristics but the effects of demographic characteristics have seldom been studied within the framework of complete demand systems in section ii we propose translating as a general method for incorporating demographic variables into complete systems of demand equations this method has not previously been discussed as a general technique for bringing demographic variables into demand systems although it has been employed in several studies to improve the estimates of the les and the qes presented in section i we reestimate these two systems using translating to incorporate family size

one for all the impact of different types of energy feedback and goal setting on individuals motivation to conserve electricity abstract we investigate how different types of energy feedback combined with goal setting impact on consumers motivation to conserve electricity using an online survey we test the influence of energy feedback in physical units kwh monetary values eur and environmental values avoided co2 emissions we asked participants to set themselves either a high low or no energy conservation goal in addition we assess the respondents value types hedonic egoistic altruistic and biospheric to test predictions derived from goal framing theory in general individuals scoring high on biospheric values were more motivated to conserve electricity and their motivation did not increase in response to setting an energy conservation goal individuals with egoistic values seem less willing to reduce their electricity consumption unless in the monetary feedback or high goal conditions a high conservation goal was only found to be effective in combination with monetary feedback it increased the motivation to save electricity by 6 7 percentage points in comparison to the low goal condition and 6 6 percentage points in comparison to the control condition

a new international database on education quality 1965 2010 the aim of this paper is to propose a new database allowing a comparative evaluation of the relative performance of schooling systems around the world we measure this performance through pupils achievement in standardized tests we merge all existing regional and international student achievement tests by using a specific methodology compared to other existing databases our approach innovates on several ways especially by including regional student achievement tests and intertemporal comparable indicators we provide a dataset of indicators of quality of student achievement iqsa for 103 countries areas in primary education and 111 countries areas in secondary education between 1965 and 2010