out of school and out of work youth in latin america a persistent problem in a decade of prosperity this paper explores the persistent shares of youth that are out of school and out of work in latin america with special attention to those in the fifteen to eighteen age range according to our calculations 18 5 percent of latin american youth in this age group 9 4 million individuals are currently neither in school nor working we present the patterns of the evolution of this group in eighteen countries across the region identifying the set of microeconomic and aggregate variables that are correlated with their dynamics we explore the relationship with the household s socioeconomic characteristics and with the structure and evolution of labor markets we identify the links with the schooling system and school dropout patterns and we verify whether the group responds to changes in the environment including overall gdp growth or to economic shocks we also explore the possibility that they are simply a transient demographic phenomenon

a multivariate cointegrated modelling approach in testing temporal causality between energy consumption real income and prices with an application to two asian ldcs unlike previous studies on the casual relationship between energy consumption and economic growth this paper illustrates how the finding of cointegration i e long term equilibrium relationship between these variables may be used in testing granger causality based on the most recent johansen s multiple cointegration tests preceded by various unit root or nonstationarity tests we test for cointegration between total energy consumption real income and price level of two asian ldcs thailand and sri lanka nonrejection of cointegration between variables rules out granger noncausality and implies at least one way of granger causality either unidirectional or bidirectional secondly by using a dynamic vector error correction model we then analyse the direction of granger causation and hence the within sample grangerexogeneity or endogeneity of each of the variables thirdly the relative strength of the causality is gauged through the dynamic variance decomposition technique by decomposing the total

energy consumption and gdp in developing countries a cointegrated panel analysis in this paper we re investigate the co movement and the causality relationship between energy consumption and gdp in 18 developing countries using data for the period 1975 to 2001 recently developed tests for the panel unit root heterogeneous panel cointegration and panel based error correction models are employed the empirical results provide clear support of a long run cointegration relationship after allowing for the heterogeneous country effect the long run relationship is estimated using a full modified ols the evidence shows that long run and short run causalities run from energy consumption to gdp but not vice versa this result indicates that energy conservation may harm economic growth in developing countries regardless of being transitory or permanent

changes in returns to education in latin america the role of demand and supply of skills using micro data for the urban areas of argentina brazil chile colombia and mexico the authors document trends in men s returns to education during the 1980s and the 1990s and estimate the role of supply and demand factors in explaining the changes in skill premia they propose a model of demand for skills with three production inputs corresponding to workers with primary secondary and university level education further the authors demonstrate that an unprecedented rise in the supply of workers having completed secondary level education depressed their wages relative to workers with primary level education throughout latin america this supply shift was compounded by a generalized shift in the demand for workers with tertiary education

energy consumption and gdp causality relationship in g 7 countries and emerging markets abstract the causality relationship between energy consumption and income is a well studied topic in energy economics this paper studies the time series properties of energy consumption and gdp and reexamines the causality relationship between the two series in the top 10 emerging markets excluding china due to lack of data and g 7 countries we discover bi directional causality in argentina causality running from gdp to energy consumption in italy and korea and from energy consumption to gdp in turkey france germany and japan hence energy conservation may harm economic growth in the last four countries

the impact of electricity supply on economic growth in sri lanka abstract yang energy econ 22 2000 309 has found a bi directional causal relationship between gross domestic product and electricity consumption in taiwan roc this study applies yang s model to examine the impact of electricity supply on economic growth in sri lanka morimoto and hope an extended cba model of hydro projects in sri lanka 2001 have found that the expected increase in economic output due to increased electricity supply parameter eo plays a crucial role in their cost benefit analysis model this study shows that the application of yang s regression analysis is one possible approach to estimate a better range for the parameter eo the estimated figure is that an extra output of rs 88 000 137 000 us1120 1740 for every 1 mw h increase in electricity supply

determinants of co2 emissions in a small open economy abstract the aim of the paper is to explore the relationship between economic development and carbon dioxide co2 emissions for a small open and industrialized country austria we test whether an environmental kuznets curve relationship also holds for a single country rather than concentrating on panel or cross section data for a set of countries a cubic i e n shaped relationship between gdp and co2 emissions is found to fit the data most appropriately for the period 1960 1999 and a structural break is identified in the mid seventies due to the oil price shock furthermore two variables are additionally significant import shares reflecting the well known pollution haven hypothesis and the share of the tertiary service sector of total production gdp accounting for structural changes in the economy emission projections derived from this single country specification support the widely held opinion that significant policy changes are asked for when implementing the kyoto protocol in order to bring about a downturn in future carbon emissions

health care expenditure and gdp are they broken stationary in this paper we analyse the stationarity of the real per capita health care expenditure hce and real per capita gdp for a sample of oecd countries allowing for the presence of multiple structural breaks one novelty of the paper is that it permits the presence of structural breaks that affect both the level and the slope of the time series after the cross section dependence is accounted for we have found that these variables can be characterised as stationary processes evolving around a broken trend

energy gdp relationship revisited an example from gcc countries using panel causality abstract this work investigates the causality relationship between gross domestic product gdp and energy consumption in the six countries of the gulf cooperation council gcc recently developed panel cointegration and causality techniques are used to uncover the direction of energy gdp causality in the gcc empirical results indicate a unidirectional causality running from gdp to energy consumption evidence shows no support for the hypothesis that energy consumption is the source of gdp growth in the gcc countries such results suggest that energy conservation policies may be adopted without much concern about their adverse effects on the growth of gcc economies

the distributional impacts of indonesia s financial crisis on household welfare analyzing the distributional impacts of economic crises is an ever more pressing need if policymakers are to intervene to help those most adversely affected they need to identify those who have been hurt most and estimate the magnitude of the harm they have suffered they must also respond in a timely manner this article develops a simple methodology for measuring these effects and applies it to analyze the impact of the indonesian economic crisis on household welfare using only pre crisis household information it estimates the compensating variation for indonesian households following the 1997 asian currency crisis and then explores the results with flexible nonparametric methods it finds that virtually every household was severely affected although the urban poor fared the worst the ability of poor rural households to produce food mitigated the worst consequences of the high inflation the distributional consequences are the same whether or not households are permitted to substitute toward relat

schools skills and synapses american society is polarizing proportionately more american youth are graduating from college than ever before at the same time american born youth are graduating from high school at lower rates than 40 years ago this paper reviews and interprets these trends the origins of inequality are examined and policies to alleviate it are analyzed families play a powerful role in shaping adult outcomes the accident of birth is a major source of inequality recent research by cunha and heckman 2007a 2008b shows that about half of the inequality in the present value of lifetime earnings is due to factors determined by age 18 compared to 50 years ago relatively more american children are being born into disadvantaged families where investments in children are smaller than in advantaged families policies that supplement the child rearing resources available to disadvantaged families reduce inequality and raise productivity

causal relationship between energy consumption and gdp revisited the case of korea 1970 1999 abstract causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is investigated applying a multivariate model of capital labor energy and gdp usual btu energy aggregate is substituted with a divisia aggregate in an attempt to mitigate aggregation bias to test for granger causality in the presence of cointegration among the variables we employ a vector error correction model rather than a vector autoregressive model empirical results for korea over the period 1970 1999 suggest a long run bidirectional causal relationship between energy and gdp and short run unidirectional causality running from energy to gdp the source of causation in the long run is found to be the error correction terms in both directions

a note on the causal relationship between energy and gdp in taiwan abstract this paper re examines the causality between energy consumption and gdp by using updated taiwan data for the period 1954 1997 as a secondary contribution we investigate the causal relationship between gdp and the aggregate as well as several disaggregate categories of energy consumption including coal oil natural gas and electricity applying granger s technique we find bidirectional causality between total energy consumption and gdp we find further that different directions of cause exist between gdp and various kinds of energy consumption

electrical energy usage over the business cycle causality from macroeconomic conditions to electrical usage overall and in the residential commercial industrial and other sectors is examined the paper shows that changes in macroeconomic conditions cause significant changes in electrical usage in the commercial and industrial sectors and overall in addition the paper shows that causality occurs at business cycle frequencies and that there are asymmetries over the business cycle an implication is that forecasts used to assess the probability of exceeding capacity constraints should incorporate forecasts of macroeconomic conditions asymmetries over the cycle and how the commercial and industrial sectors will respond to such changes

the distributional impacts of indonesia s financial crisis on household welfare a rapid response methodology analyzing the distributional impacts of economic crises is an ever more pressing need if policymakers are to intervene to help those most adversely affected they need to identify those who have been hurt most and estimate the magnitude of the harm they have suffered they must also respond in a timely manner this article develops a simple methodology for measuring these effects and applies it to analyze the impact of the indonesian economic crisis on household welfare using only pre crisis household information it estimates the compensating variation for indonesian households following the 1997 asian currency crisis and then explores the results with flexible nonparametric methods it finds that virtually every household was severely affected although the urban poor fared the worst the ability of poor rural households to produce food mitigated the worst consequences of the high inflation the distributional consequences are the same whether or not households are permitted to substitute toward relatively cheaper goods households with young children may have suffered disproportionately large adverse effects

are oil shocks inflationary asymmetric and nonlinear specifications versus changes in regime this paper identifies a structural break in core u s inflation phillips curves such that oil prices contributed substantially before 1981 but since that time pass through has been negligible this characterization is robust to a variety of re specifications and fits the data better than asymmetric and nonlinear oil price alternatives evidence does not support the hypotheses that declining energy intensity or deregulation of energy producing and consuming industries played an important role monetary policy did not itself become less accommodative of oil shocks but may have helped create a regime where inflation is less sensitive to price shocks more generally

equity markets and growth cross country evidence on timing and outcomes 1980 1995 abstract the rapid expansion of organized equity exchanges in both emerging and developed markets has prompted policymakers to raise important questions about their macroeconomic impact yet the need to focus on recent data poses implementation difficulties for econometric studies of dynamic interactions between stock markets and economic performance in individual countries this paper overcomes some of these difficulties by applying recent developments in the analysis of panels with a small time dimension to estimate vector autoregressions for a set of 47 countries with annual data for 1980 1995 after describing recent theories on the role of stock markets in growth and considering a pure cross sectional empirical approach our panel vars show leading roles for stock market liquidity and the intensity of activity in traditional financial intermediaries on per capita output the findings underscore the potential gains associated with developing deep and liquid financial markets in an increasingly global economy

the asymmetry of the impact of oil price shocks on economic activities an application of the multivariate threshold model this paper applies the multivariate threshold model to investigate the impacts of an oil price change and its volatility on economic activities changes in industrial production and real stock returns the statistical test on the existence of a threshold effect indicates that a threshold value does exist using monthly data of the us canada and japan during the period from 1970 to 2002 we conclude i the optimal threshold level seems to vary according to how an economy depends on imported oil and the attitude towards adopting energy saving technology ii an oil price change or its volatility has a limited impact on the economies if the change is below the threshold levels iii if the change is above threshold levels it appears that the change in oil price better explains macroeconomic variables than the volatility of the oil price and iv if the change is above threshold levels a change in oil price or its volatility explains the model better than the real interest rate

disaggregated industrial energy consumption and gdp the case of shanghai 1952 1999 abstract this paper investigates the causal relationship between various kinds of industrial energy consumption and gdp in shanghai for the period 1952 1999 using a modified version of the granger 1969 causality test proposed by toda and yamamoto j econ 66 1995 225 the empirical evidence from disaggregated energy series seems to suggest that there was a uni directional granger causality running from coal coke electricity and total energy consumption to real gdp but no granger causality running in any direction between oil consumption and real gdp

a multivariate cointegration analysis of the role of energy in the us macroeconomy abstract this paper extends my previous analysis of the causal relationship of gdp and energy use in the usa in the post war period a majority of the relevant variables are integrated justifying a cointegration analysis the results show that cointegration does occur and that energy input cannot be excluded from the cointegration space the results are plausible in terms of macroeconomic dynamics the results are similar to my previous granger causality results and contradict claims in the literature based on bivariate models that there is no cointegration between energy and output

energy consumption and gdp revisited a panel analysis of developed and developing countries this paper applies a new panel data stationarity testing procedure first developed by carrion i silvestre et al 2005 econometrics journal 8 159 175 with panel vars that employ the generalized method of moment techniques in order to re investigate the dynamic interactions between energy consumption per capita lec and real gdp per capita lry in 22 developed and 18 developing countries when multiple breaks in the series are taken into account there is convincing evidence of panel stationarity for lec and lry in both groups the energy crises evidently had a substantive impact on both lec and lry in all sample countries furthermore our panel vars attest to bidirectional causality between lec and lry in developed countries but there is uni directional causality from lry to lec in developing countries finally from the orthogonalized impulse response functions all of the variables in the panel vars have a positive effect on each other but their impact is greater and more persistent in developing countries some important policy implications do emerge

energy consumption in china past trends and future directions abstract in 2003 china s energy consumption amounted to 1678 million tonnes coal equivalent mtce making china the world s second largest consumer behind only the united states china is now also one of the largest oil importers in the world with an economy that is expected to maintain a rate of growth of 7 8 for decades china s role in the world energy market becomes increasingly influential this makes it important to predict china s future demand for energy the objective of this paper is to apply the bayesian vector autoregressive methodology to forecast china s energy consumption and to discuss potential implications the results of this paper suggest that total energy consumption should increase to 2173 mtce in 2010 an annual growth rate of 3 8 which is slightly slower than the average rate in the past decade the slower growth reflects expected slower economic growth and a decline in energy consumption due to structural changes in the chinese economy

structural breaks energy consumption and economic growth revisited evidence from taiwan abstract this paper studies the stability between energy consumption and gdp for taiwan during 1954 2003 we use aggregate as well as various disaggregate data of energy consumption including coal oil gas and electricity to employ the unit root tests and the cointegration tests allowing for structural breaks our main findings are first though gas consumption seems to have structural breaks in the 1960s after considering the structural breaks the series is a stationary variable when taiwan adopted its expansionary export trade policy second we find that different directions of causality exist between gdp and various kinds of energy consumption the empirical result shows unanimously in the long run that energy acts as an engine of economic growth and that energy conservation may harm economic growth third the cointegration between energy consumption and gdp is unstable and some economic events may affect the stability overall we do find the structural breakpoints and they look to match clearly with the corresponding critical economic incidents

when to invest in carbon capture and storage technology a mathematical model abstract we present two models of the optimal investment decision in carbon capture and storage technology ccs one where the carbon price is deterministic based on the newly introduced carbon floor price in great britain and one where the carbon price is stochastic based on the ets permit price in the rest of europe a novel feature of this work is that in both models investment costs are time dependent which adds an extra dimension to the decision problem our deterministic model allows for quite general dependence on carbon price and consideration of time to build and simple calculus techniques determine the optimal time to invest we then analyse the effect of carbon price volatility on the optimal investment decision by solving a bellman equation with an infinite planning horizon we find that increasing the carbon price volatility increases the critical investment threshold and that adoption of this technology is not optimal at current prices in agreement with other works however reducing carbon price volatility by switching from carbon permits to taxes or by introducing a carbon floor as in great britain would accelerate the adoption of carbon abatement technologies such as ccs

structural break unit root and the causality between energy consumption and gdp in turkey abstract this paper tries to investigate a series of unit root and causality tests to detect causality between the gdp and energy consumption in turkey employing hsiao s version of granger causality method for the 1950 2000 period the conventional unit root tests indicate the series are i 1 whereas the endogenous break unit root tests proposed by zivot and andrews zivot e and andrews d w k 1992 further evidence on the great crash the oil price shock and the unit root hypothesis journal of business and economics statistics 10 251 270 and perron perron p 1997 further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables journal of econometrics 80 355 385 reveal that the series are trend stationary with a structural break therefore it is inappropriate to take the first difference of the data to achieve stationarity the main conclusion of this study is that there is no evidence of causality between energy consumption and gdp in turkey based on the detrended data

finance and the sources of growth the authors evaluate whether the level of development in the banking sector exerts a causal impact on economic growth and its sources total factor productivity growth physical capital accumulation and private saving they use 1 a pure cross country instrumental variable estimator to extract the exogenous component of banking development and 2 a new panel technique that controls for country specific effects and endogeneity they find that banks do exert a large causal impact on total factor productivity growth which feeds through to overall gdp gross domestic product growth the long run links between banking development and both capital growth and private savings are more tenuous

stationarity of health expenditures and gdp evidence from panel unit root tests with heterogeneous structural breaks this paper re examines the stationarity of national health care expenditures and gdp in a panel setting utilizing data from 20 oecd countries over the period from 1960 to 1997 previous research in this area has recognized the drawback of not allowing for structural breaks in their unit root tests and noted that their empirical results may not be robust we advance the literature by utilizing a recently developed panel lm unit root test that allows for heterogeneous level shifts in contrast to previous analyses that did not consider breaks our results reject the unit root null hypothesis for both series