inflation tax rates and investment with endogenous financial behavior since modigliani and miller s 24 famous article there has been an extensive theoretical debate over the role of corporate financial policy in determining real investment 3 5 8 13 22 27 28 auerbach 1 and feldstein green and sheshinski 9 assume that an interior debt to total capital ratio exists at the firm level which minimizes the cost of funding investment this position can be theoretically justified if one allows for the presence of default risk with incomplete financial markets 3 bankruptcy costs 5 13 or corporate tax shield substitutes for debt 5 miller 22 on the other hand downplays the importance of capital market imperfections and argues that while in an economy with personal and corporate taxes an interior corporate sector debt ratio will exist at the firm level the choice of financial mix remains irrelevant despite the theoretical attention devoted to this topic virtually no attempts have been made to establish an empirical model for the debt ratio such a model could prove useful in explaining asset yields and real investment or more ambitiously in testing the alternative theories of financial policy determination mentioned above the lack of effort in this area is surprising since many economists apparently believe that the debt ratio is quite important in determining real capital formation and resource allocation 7 10 11 12 20 26 theory alone cannot be used to support this contention since even if one does not accept the modigliani miller reasoning and believes instead that financial policy is chosen optimally the effect of a change in financial policy on the cost of funds will be approximately to the first order zero this is a direct consequence of the envelope theorem which states that a marginal change in a choice variable leaves the objective function unchanged only an empirical study of discrete changes can determine the importance of financial policy for real investment in a recent study 25 we estimated a reduced form model of the corporate sector debt ratio the evidence in that paper supports the notion that increases in the nominal interest rate will encourage firms to increase their debt ratio due to the tax advantages of bond financing and that

agricultural price instability a survey of competing explanations and remedies there are two explanations for agricultural price dynamics one follows cobweb logic and models fluctuations driven by expectation errors but emphasises that these expectations create complex dynamics and possibly chaos the other stems from the rational expectations tradition of dynamics driven by real shocks the empirical evidence tends to support the latter but is not conclusive the rational expectations model generates an optimal dynamic path from which no improvement can be expected from public intervention however if we take account of all the potential market failures in agricultural markets and especially in developing countries this conclusion might require some qualifications although an appropriate policy design for stability has still to be achieved this paper surveys the positive and normative literature on agricultural prices highlighting empirical evidence and identifying remaining unresolved issues

a quantitative evaluation of payroll tax subsidies for low wage workers an equilibrium search approach abstract phelps phelps e 1994 low wage employment subsidies versus the welfare state american economic review 84 54 58 presented the case for a low wage subsidy policy since the mid 1990s france has experimented with this strategy this paper evaluates the effect of this policy on employment and also on output and welfare we construct an equilibrium search model incorporating wage posting and specific human capital investment where unemployment and the distribution of both wages and productivity are endogenous we estimate this model using french data numerical simulations show that the prevailing minimum wage allows a high production level to be reached by increasing training investment even though the optimal minimum wage is lower we show that payroll tax subsidies enhance welfare more than a reduction in the minimum wage when they are spread over a large range of wages in order to avoid specialization in low productivity jobs

the determinants of aggregate creditors voluntary liquidations this article investigates the determinants of creditors voluntary liquidations cvls an area of research that has received comparatively scant attention in the literature despite the fact that at least in the uk this form of insolvency has consistently comprised the majority of company failures it develops an equilibrium correction model ecm to explain variations in the aggregate number of cvls in england and wales between 1963 and 1995 this is then subjected to out of sample testing over the subsequent 10 year period the results indicate that in both the short run and the long run changes in the level of liquidations can be explained by two main explanatory variables namely the nominal after tax cost of borrowing and changes in the overall level of economic activity in addition confirmatory evidence is provided for the dampening effect of the 1986 insolvency act on the number of liquidations the model retains its forecasting accuracy in the out of sample period although there is possibly s

spot and futures prices of nonstorable commodities under rational expectations the paper examines the effect of the presence of a commodity futures market upon the price formation process in a stochastic rational expectations framework an optimizing model with price uncertainty and risk aversion is used in order to solve equilibrium distributions of prices for nonstorable commodities the existence of futures trading does not affect the degree of short term spot price fluctuations however if the commodity market disturbance that originates from stochastic consumption demand is serially dependent then the long term price variation is smaller with a futures market than without it futures prices fluctuate less variably over time than spot and expected prices finally there exists a futures intervention rule whereby the authority can stabilize spot prices and raise the overall welfare of society

the interrelationships between births and deaths this paper provides a preliminary study of the way in which the births and deaths of firms interactover time it uses the retailing sector as a case study although the results also have relevance for other sectors section i of the paper introduces the background to the paper section ii provides a non mathematical theoretical framework for analysing the births deaths interrelationship it identifies three separate types of effect operative in these interrelationships the competition multiplier and marshall life cycle effects the data used in this study value added tax registrations and deregistrations and their limitations are considered in section iii section iv presents the preliminary empirical results this section utilises panel data vector autoregression techniques to identify the salient birth death relationships the final section concludes the paper and draws out possible policy conclusions it also suggests avenues for further work

transitory shock or structural shift the impact of the early 1980s recession on british regional unemployment this paper examines the impact of the early 1980s recession on regional unemployment in britain more specifically it seeks to evaluate the hypothesis that this recessionary shock was so severe that it caused an upward structural shift in the underlying mean unemployment rates of the regions this proposition is analysed using dickey fuller tests for difference versus trend stationarity and the augmented structural shift and trend break time series models developed by perron the results suggest that the apparent stochastic non stationarity in regional unemployment over the period 1965 95 is in fact due to an upward structural shift in regional mean unemployment rates in 1980 furthermore the nature of this shift appears to have differed as between the northern and southern regions of the country

assessing the economic costs of a foot and mouth disease outbreak on brittany a dynamic computable general equilibrium analysis abstract outbreaks of animal diseases such as foot and mouth disease fmd are of great concern for agriculture in this paper we quantify the potential dynamic impacts of such a disease on brittany a french region with an important livestock sector in order to do this we develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium model that allows us to measure the impacts on the livestock sectors and downstream food industries we study the impacts of a fmd outbreak including the culling infected animals a temporary decline in demand and restrictions on movements of live animals and meats during the fmd outbreak period our results show that economic losses following this disease are spread over many periods even with a one time shock we also find that the impacts on the various primary sectors and downstream food sectors are quite different depending on their initial trade position our general equilibrium results show the great incidence of potential constraints affecting factor markets capital and wage constraints severely increase the aggregate costs of such disease these results challenge the definition of a simple efficient management policy for this disease

stochastic divergence or convergence of per capita carbon dioxide emissions re examining the evidence this paper revisits the time series literature on the convergence of per capita carbon dioxide co2 emissions and examines the robustness of previous results using a sample of oecd countries for the period 1950 2002 we employ a battery of stationarity and unit root tests including those that allow for cross sectional dependencies within the panel we also correct for inaccuracies in previous studies that could result in a trend stationary series being labelled as converging even if it were actually diverging from the international average the body of evidence provided by our analysis suggests that per capita co2 emissions have not converged among oecd countries during the period under consideration this finding is of importance to both climate change policy makers and to those who construct climate change models

economic failure and the role of plant age and size this paper introduces a large scale administrative panel data set on corporate bankruptcy in germany that allows for an econometric analysis of involuntary exits where previous studies mixed voluntary and involuntary exits approximately 83 of all bankruptcies occur in plants with not more than 10 employees and 61 of all bankrupt plants are not older than 5 years the descriptive statistics and regression analysis indicate substantial negative age dependence with respect to bankruptcy risk but confirm negative size dependence for mature plants only our results corroborate hypotheses stressing increasing capabilities and positional advantage both predicting negative age dependence with respect to bankruptcy risk due to productivity improvements the results are not consistent with the theories explaining age dependence via imprinting or structural inertia

on the performance of differently regulated financial institutions some empirical evidence abstract the paper raises two questions about the industrial economics of banking first why are financial market configurations so different across nations we discuss the theoretical arguments by following the sequence regulation structure performance section 2 second do the differences in regulation and structure matter section 3 provides empirical evidence pertaining to that question throughout the paper we refer to two polar cases of financial systems market m and bank b based systems as for banks we distinguish between specialised and universal banks universal banking is a particular institutional representation of b systems a first empirical test relating macroeconomic growth to financial variables suggests that these variables matter we then test with a set of 88 banks the effects of regulatory and structural variables on the level and variability of bank performance we conclude that universal banks achieve a better risk return trade off due to superior monitoring and information collection capacity

macroeconomic effects of active labour market programmes in a union wage setting model the recent western european policy debate on unemployment has emphasized the benefits of active labor market programs the authors analyze the effects on wage pressure and equilibrium employment in a union wage setting framework programs are wage reducing to the extent that they help maintain effective labor force participation but they may also weaken insider incentives for wage restraint as the disutility of layoffs becomes smaller targeting the long term unemployed is crucial for the success of active labor market policy since the welfare effects on the laid off then are more heavily discounted and employment opportunities are redistributed from insiders to outsiders copyright 1995 by royal economic society

a note on the stationarity of the primary commodities relative price index abstract the prebisch singer hypothesis of a secular decline in the relative price of primary commodities is investigated searching for the presence of a deterministic rather than stochastic trend and controlling for major structural breaks the evidence is in favour of a deterministic trend with a negative slope for the largest part of the century and a major structural break at the end of world war one

bank firm relationships financing and firm performance in germany abstract close bank firm relationships that characterize the financial systems in germany and japan are often credited for reducing agency costs and increasing access to capital thus improving the performance of firms critics of these banking systems cite the alternative possibility that conflicts of interests may also arise from both the banks multiple roles with the firm and the opportunity the banks have to use private information to shift risk or to otherwise participate in rent seeking activities we extend the empirical literature by systematically investigating the impact of bank influence on the financing choices and performance of the firm we find that bank influenced firms in germany do benefit from increased access to capital there is however no evidence to support the hypothesis of either higher profitability or growth for bank influenced firms results suggest that the interest payments to debt ratio is significantly higher for bank influenced firms which supports the hypothesis that german universal banks may engage in rent seeking activities and provides evidence of a conflicting interests between creditors and shareholders

segmented trends and non stationary time series since the influential work of charles r nelson and charles plosser 1982 many empirical studies have concluded that macroeconomic time series are difference stationary this paper proposes the segmented trend model as an alternative in which the series is the sum of a nonstationary trend and a stationary cycle and where the trend shows infrequent shifts the paper proposes tests between the difference stationary and segmented trends models and applies these to the data of nelson and plosser in general the results indicate that prices are difference stationary but quantities follow segmented trend processes copyright 1989 by royal economic society

company bankruptcies and births matter this paper constructs a simple supply orientated model of the economy in which company bankruptcies which lead to a loss of capital and births have impacts on macroeconomic variables bankruptcies will reduce output increase unemployment worsen the balance of payments and also impact upon inflation empirical work based on data from both the usa and the uk finds a significant granger causality relationship between bankruptcies and births and these four macroeconomic variables the standard granger causality regression is supplemented by non linear granger causality tests

the loan contract mechanism of financial control industry banking the style of banking under which a single bank satisfies all the external financial needs of an industry was recognised by alfred marshall i9i9 as a positive force in the development of new industries today many of marshall s reference industries have reached maturity but their industry banks continue to play an active role not only in financing their production and expansion but also in their management cable i985 prais 198i to understand the economic impact of industry banking this paper explores one aspect of it bank directed industry coordination and control

the determination of spot and futures prices with storable commodities this paper analyzes the effects of futures trading in a market for a storable commodity in which producers and speculators are assumed to be risk averse and specifications of the aggregate supply and inventory demand functions are derived from explicit optimization a critical aspect is how the parameters of these functions change with the introduction of the future market as it is through these induced parameter changes that the futures market exerts its influence on the spot price the effects of the futures market on both the long run average spot price and its variance are analyzed while we are unable to draw any definitive conclusions on this issue we find that in all cases considered the futures market stabilizes the spot price as well as lowering its long run mean for many years now the question of the effects of futures trading on the stability of spot prices has been extensively debated this topic has been discussed at various levels for example farmers and agricultural interest groups have claimed that futures trading destabilizes spot prices thereby imposing welfare losses on the economy in the united states congress has decided that futures trading can cause price destabilization and has subjected futures trading to the regulation of the commodity futures trading commission at a more analytical level economists have been investigating the issue both empirically and more recently theoretically as well

the assessment productivity and competitiveness in british manufacturing this issue of the oxford review examines productivity and competitiveness in british manufac turing the simplest and most widely used measure of productivity is output per head from this definition sprout at once the horns of a dilemma for an economy facing unemployment on the present scale for a given rate of expansion of output the higher the rate of productivity growth the greater the decline in employment or at least the smaller its growth on the other hand in an economy open to international competition a high rate of productivity growth relative to that of other countries is the long term key to achieving the favourable international competitive po sition necessary to sustain growth and a low level of unemployment

the effects of inflation and real wages on employment this paper considers the effects of inflation on employment the absence of index linked loans and the possibility that errors are committed in times of inflation lead to a higher probability of bankruptcy during inflation if firms care about bankruptcy this implies a lower level of employment empirical results confirming this are presented and suggest that higher inflation has substantially contributed to the fall in employment in the united kingdom the authors also demonstrate that a negative real wage elasticity is not robust to changes in specification copyright 1987 by the review of economic studies limited

reasons for insolvency amongst small firms a review and fresh evidence the growing and diverse literature on insolvency is comprehensively and critically reviewed the limited portfolio that small firms represent in particular as regards their managerial capabilities is suggested as an added reason for the strong inverse correlation of probability of insolvency with firm size the evidence from a hitherto largely untapped source of data the reports of the british official receiver is analysed using contingency tables the most important reason for their failure given by the owners of insolvent firms is weaknesses in operational management particularly in the adequacy of their capital marked inter temporal and interregional differences are evident within the data

is relationship lending special evidence from credit file data in germany the german financial market is often characterized as a bank based system with strong bank customer relationships the corresponding notion of a housebank is closely related to the theoretical idea of relationship lending it is the objective of this paper to provide a direct comparison between housebanks and normal banks as to their credit policy therefore we analyze a new data set representing a random sample of borrowers drawn from the credit portfolios of five leading german banks over a period of five years we use credit file data rather than industry survey data and thus focus the analysis on information that is directly related to actual credit decisions in particular we use bank internal borrower rating data to evaluate borrower quality and the bank s own assessment of its housebank status to control for information intensive relationships the major results of our study support the view that housebanks are able to establish a distinct behavioral pattern consistent with the idea of long term commitment we find that housebanks do provide liquidity insurance in situations of unexpected deterioration of borrower ratings with respect to loan pricing we find no evidence for intra or intertemporal price differentiation related to housebanking

banks equity stakes and lending evidence from a tax reform abstract we study how a bank s equity stake in a borrowing firm affects lending to that firm similar to prior papers we find a positive association between a bank s equity stake in a borrowing firm and lending to that firm while such a positive cross sectional correlation may be due to equity stakes benefiting lending it may also be driven by endogeneity to distinguish the two explanations we study a german tax reform that permitted banks to sell their equity stakes tax free after the reform many banks sold their equity stakes but did not reduce lending to the firms this observation is robust to several alternative model specifications control groups and time windows our findings suggest that banks equity stakes may be less important for lending than previously thought

can entrepreneurial activity be taught quasi experimental evidence from central america summary business training is a widely used development tool yet little is known about its impact we study the effects of such a business training program held in central america to deal with endogenous selection into the training program we use a regression discontinuity design exploiting the fact that a fixed number of applicants are taken into the training program based on a pre training score business training significantly increases the probability that an applicant to the workshop starts a business or expands an existing business results also suggest gender heterogeneity as well as the presence of financial constraints

what works a meta analysis of recent active labor market program evaluations we summarize the estimates from over 200 recent studies of active labor market programs we classify the estimates by type of program and participant group and distinguish between three different post program time horizons using regression models for the estimated program effect for studies that model the probability of employment and for the sign and significance of the estimated effect for all the studies in our sample we conclude that 1 average impacts are close to zero in the short run but become more positive 2 3 years after completion of the program 2 the time profile of impacts varies by type of program with larger average gains for programs that emphasize human capital accumulation 3 there is systematic heterogeneity across participant groups with larger impacts for females and participants who enter from long term unemployment 4 active labor market programs are more likely to show positive impacts in a recession

hedging price risks of farmers by commodity boards a simulation applied to the indian natural rubber market abstract this paper investigates a hypothetical hedging scheme in a domestic commodity market under which a commodity board offers a forward contract to domestic producers and local traders and covers its commitments on an international futures exchange it is aimed to quantify welfare gains to agents in the market and costs and benefits of the board empirically the empirical work is based on the indian natural rubber market and the tokyo commodity exchange tocom for the period 1990 95 the hedging scheme is shown to increase welfare substantially particularly welfare of growers the costs of such a facility for the commodity board basis risk are negligible if the forward price offered on the domestic market is a small fraction below the international futures price the board can prevent losses at only slightly lower welfare gains

effectiveness of active labor market tools in conditional cash transfers programs evidence for argentina summary this paper examines the impact of the program seguro de capacitacion y empleo sce implemented to provide support in skills upgrading job seeking and job placement to eligible beneficiaries of the argentinian conditional cash transfer program plan jefes the sce is an example of a growing trend observed in latin america where labor activation components have been increasingly included into cash transfers programs to support beneficiaries in finding more stable income opportunities despite this growing trend not enough is known regarding the effectiveness of these components especially on job quality in this context this paper sheds light on whether the provision of a comprehensive package of active labor market measures contributes to a successful labor market integration of cash transfers beneficiaries taking advantage of the panel structure of the permanent household survey and exploiting the time variation in the assignment of the program as identification strategy we apply difference in difference estimators to measure the impact on a number of labor market indicators we find that the program affects positively the job quality of participants by increasing the probability of having a formal job and raising hourly wages moreover the intervention is associated with a lower probability of having a low paid job and working an excessive number of hours these effects are however not homogeneous across all groups of participants while the program is more successful among the younger beneficiaries it does not contribute to an improvement in the labor market conditions of female beneficiaries who in fact are the majority of sce participants our results suggest that reducing dependency on monetary transfers through programs such as the sce that are rich in activation components is beneficial for participants labor market trajectories and therefore it constitutes a satisfactory exit strategy to more universal cash transfer programs

jump starting self employment evidence among welfare participants in argentina one important concern of governments in developing countries is how to phase out large safety net programs the authors evaluate the short run effects of one possible exit strategy programs that promote self employment in argentina they provide evidence that a small fraction of beneficiaries were attracted by this program overall potential participants to self employment are more likely to be female household heads and more educated beneficiaries relative to the average jefes beneficiaries using nonexperimental methods the authors show that participation in the program does affect the labor supply of participants by reducing the probability of having an outside job especially for males and increasing the total number of hours worked but the intervention fails to produce on average income gains to participating individuals and households in the short run the fact that a small subset of former welfare beneficiaries are attracted to the program coupled with the fact that only a subset of participants younger and more educated beneficiaries and with previous self employment experience benefited from participation has important implications for this intervention to represent a viable exit strategy from welfare

capital market information and industrial performance the role of west german banks in orthodox theory external capital markets play a dual role supplying various forms of investment finance and disciplining firms which are inefficient or fail to pursue profit goals an extensive literature speaks of the efficiency of external capital markets meaning that firms can make production investment decisions and investors can choose among the securities that represent ownership of firms activities under the assumption that security prices at any time fully reflect all available information fama i970 1 however this concept of efficiency is purely technical it depends critically on what information is available and we know there are problems of appropriability and failure in information markets deriving ultimately from certain peculiarities of information as a commodity arrow i962 thus another growing literature focusses on problems of achieving equilibrium in markets where agents are imperfectly or asymmetrically informed amongst other things this literature shows that informational failures of the kind in question can lead to capital rationing in loan and credit markets and the use of strict collateral requirements as screening devices jaffee and russell i976 stiglitz and weiss i98i cable and turner i983 these may then be expected to affect the efficiency of individual firms and the system as a whole capital shortage implies that some profitable investment opportunities are foregone and production choices may also be distorted by the need to satisfy additional financial constraints contrived to elicit signals of creditworthiness of the firms undertaking them similarly the disciplining role of external capital markets can be impaired by information impactedness williamson i975 and the costs of mobilising and giving effect to shareholders preferences thus in the principal agent framework developed by jensen and meckling i976 and fama i980 the degree of constraint on managerial pursuit of non profit goals as posited by managerial theorists depends on the transactions costs of stock owner intervention the result is an optimal degree of departure from cost minimising profit maximising behaviour determined by the level of transactions costs institutional factors which affect the way information is distributed amongst agents can therefore have an important bearing on allocative and technical efficiency and the west german system of industrial finance provides an in

subordination of american capital abstract to economists agency problems present challenges that can be resolved through optimal contracting or incentive mechanisms to politicians agency problems represent entitlements to be allocated among favored constituencies corporate management constitutes a powerful constituency independent of the interests of workers local communities and other corporate stakeholders the political process has for politically rational but economically dabatable reasons systematically subordinated investors desire to resolve agency problems to managers desire to be protected from capital market discipline politically explicit modes of analysis thus complement traditional tools of finance theory and improve our ability to explain capital market structure and behavior

international evidence on persistence in output in the presence of an episodic change this paper uses some newly developed methods and techniques to examine the dynamic properties of international output in the presence of a structural break we provide statistical evidence to show that the unit root test results can in some cases be sensitive to whether a one time structural break in the data is modelled exogenously or endogenously however in most cases the unit root test results remain robust to specification of the structural break exogenously or endogenously moreover we find that the null hypothesis of a unit root in output can be rejected in favour of a flexible trend alternative for a number of countries such as canada denmark france and the united states

delegated monitors large and small germany s banking system 1800 1914 banks play a greater role in the german financial system than in those of the united states or britain germany s large universal banks are admired by those who advocate bank deregulation in the united states others admire the universal banks for their supposed role in corporate governance and industrial finance many discussions distort the german banking system by overstressing one of several types of banks and ignore the competition and cooperation between the famous universal banks and other banking groups tracing the historical development of the german banking system from the early nineteenth century places the large universal banks in context

assisting the transition from workfare to work a randomized experiment randomly sampled workfare participants in a welfare dependent region of argentina were given a voucher that entitled an employer to a sizable wage subsidy a second sample also received the option of skill training while a third sample formed the control group the authors analyze the effects of this scheme on participants employment and income using double difference and instrumental variables methods to deal with potential experimental biases including selective compliance with the randomized assignment the authors find that compared with the control group voucher recipients had a significantly higher probability of employment though their current incomes were no higher the impact was largely confined to women and younger workers labor supply effects appear to have been important however training had no significant impact the experiment was cost effective in reducing the government s welfare spending since take up of the subsidy by employers was low

estimating the performance effects of business groups in emerging markets business groups confederations of legally independent firms are ubiquitous in emerging economies yet very little is known about their effects on the performance of affiliated firms we conceive of business groups as responses to market failures and high transaction costs in doing so we develop hypotheses about the effects of group affiliation on firm profitability affiliation could either boost or depress firm profitability and members of a group are likely to earn rates of return similar to other members of the same group using a unique data set compiled largely from local sources we test for these effects in 14 emerging markets argentina brazil chile india indonesia israel mexico peru the philippines south africa south korea taiwan thailand and turkey we find evidence that business groups indeed affect the broad patterns of economic performance in 12 of the markets we examine group affiliation appears to have as profound an effect on profitability as does industry membership yet strategy scholars have a much clearer grasp of industries than of groups moreover membership in a group raises the profitability of the average group member in several of the markets we examine this runs contrary to the wisdom conventional in advanced economies that unrelated diversification depresses profitability overall our findings suggest that the roots of sustained differences in profitability may vary across institutional contexts conclusions drawn in one context may well not apply to another copyright 2001 john wiley sons ltd

the effect of the thatcher government on company liquidations an econometric study the findings from an econometric study of company liquidations in teh uk economy are presented the aim is to build on previous macroeconomic analysis of business failure in order to explore to what extent the impact of the thatcher government did represent a clear break in the determination of company liquidations while it is possible to construct a model which performs reasonably well in statistical terms prior to 1980 clear evidence is found of a structural break associated with the new attitude towards business failure brought in by the conservative government there is also strong evidence that company liquidations have become much more sensitive to the state of the business cycle the model estimated gives a prominent role to the current level of company profitability and to the growth in liquidity liquidity is measured by two alternative proxy variables the rate of growth of broad money and the flow of bank lending to the company sector the model is consistent with a cash flow that short term

inflation bankruptcy default premia and the stock market in this paper we explore some of the possibilities and argue that in the absence of index linked loans higher inflation implies higher liquidation rates and default premia this would also be one possible reason why higher inflation would depress share values our evidence also suggests that the modigliani and cohn 1979 valuation errors hypothesis is extremely important in order to see why higher inflation might lead to more bankruptcies consider the following example suppose that the real interest rate p is i and that a firm has borrowed iooo if there is no inflation the firm s interest payments are io now suppose that inflation p rises to io and that the nominal interest rate r is given by the formula i r i p i fi then r rises to i i i and total interest payments to i i i hence at a time when revenue has risen by only io interest payments rise elevenfold and this creates cashflow problems for the firm index linked debt would avoid this problem because the principal could be indexed and would rise to i ioo leaving the firm to only pay li i in interest

finance innovation and industrial change abstract this paper investigates the impact financial structures upon industrial dynamics whenever the system is permanently characterized by unexploited opportunities for innovation highly bounded rationality and trial and error search processes in these circumstances it is argued specific financial set ups such as market based vs credit based mechanisms of allocation control and ownership transfer are likely to exert different influences on the rates and modes of industrial innovation relatedly one suggests some hypotheses on the links between financial systems and features of industrial evolution and some tentative taxonomies

twenty years of rising inequality in u s lifetime labour income values in this paper we study the evolution of lifetime labour income inequality by constructing present value life cycle measures that incorporate both earnings and employment risk we find that even though lifetime income inequality is 40 less than earnings inequality the total increase in lifetime income inequality over the past 20 years is the same as earnings inequality while the total increase is the same the pathways there differ with earnings inequality experiencing a steady increase and lifetime income inequality increasing in spurts particularly in the latter half of the 1990s finally we find the changes in lifetime income inequality are primarily driven by changes in earnings mobility and changes in the earnings distribution itself changes in employment risk and the composition of the sample such as the shift toward attaining more education and the ageing population do not play a large role 2004 the review of economics studies limited

u s farm policy and the volatility of commodity prices and farm revenues a dynamic three commodity rational expectations storage model is used to compare the impact of the federal agricultural improvement and reform fair act of 1996 with a free market policy and with pre fair policies results suggest that fair did not lead to significant increases in long run price volatility or revenue volatility the main impact of pre fair relative to the free market regime was to substitute government storage for private storage in a way that did little to support prices or to stabilize farm incomes results also indicate that u s grain market volatility in 1995 2000 was due to fundamental market forces and not to fair copyright 2002 oxford university press

the trend behavior of alternative income inequality measures in the united states from 1947 1990 and the structural break this article tests the hypothesis that the time series process of income inequality has experienced a structural break the timing of the structural break is treated as an unknown parameter to be estimated from the data because it is not possible to associate a single episodic policy event with the break year and to avoid bias in favor of a unit root hypothesis if the break was near the selected year for several measures of income inequality a segmented trend model is more appropriate to account for the fundamentals affecting the behavior of income inequality as opposed to a stochastic trend model

international evidence on shock persistence structural change nonlinearities and subsample robustness testing for unit roots and the related issue of measuring shock persistence has attracted considerable theoretical and applied econometric interest the issue of the size of the random walk component raised by cochrane journal of political economy 96 893 920 1988 has been extended in the work of other authors leung economics letters 40 435 44 1992 in particular considers the effects of structural breaks on measures of persistence in this paper we consider new results for the effects of structural change nonlinearities and subsample robustness on spectral based measures of persistence illustrating the potential problems via an updated and extended version of the cogley journal of political economy 98 501 18 1990 data set we find that significant structural breaks exist in the majority of the series investigated furthermore measured persistence differs markedly across distinct periods with the assumption of common growth rates over very long periods leading on occasions to potentially

estimating the benefit incidence of an antipoverty program by propensity score matching this brief summarizes the results of a gender impact evaluation study entitled estimating the benefit incidence of an antipoverty program by propensity score matching conducted between 1997 and 1998 in argentina the study observed that the average direct gain to the participant is found to be about half the gross wage over half of the beneficiaries are in the poorest decile nationally and 80 percent are in the poorest quintile the propensity score matching psm estimator is reasonably robust to a number of changes in methodology participants are more likely to be poor than non participants participants are less well educated live in poorer neighborhoods and are more likely to be members of neighborhood associations and political parties average gains are similar between men and women but are higher for younger workers funding for the study derives from the world bank research committee

the effect of monetary policy on corporate bankruptcies evidence from the united states in this article we study the relationship between monetary policy and corporate bankruptcies in the usa the main hypothesis is that an increase in the monetary base or a decrease in the federal f

on financial innovations and credit market evolution abstract this paper examines the role of financial innovations in the economic development process it discusses the place of policy intervention in the financial development of developing countries and through a case study of an innovative bank illustrates the nature and characteristics of the financial innovations necessary for financing small enterprises and mobilizing resources from low and middle income groups such financial innovations are shown to reduce transaction costs and risk and as a result to bring about widening deeping and intergration of capital markets this process accelerates economic development through a favorable impact on savings investment and output

the simultaneous determination of spot and futures prices in a simple model with production risk this paper deals with properties of a rational expectations equilibrium when there is futures trading a simple two good model is analyzed where one of the goods is produced subject to production risk although the futures market provides insurance against price risk to producers it is income risk that concerns them whether they hedge in equilibrium is shown to depend on the price and income elasticity of demand for their output as well as on the degree to which consumers the other party in the futures transaction are risk averse

the effect of inflation on stock prices international evidence paper presented at the september l980 meetings of the american economic and american finance associations in denver colorado

active labour market programmes in latin america and the caribbean evidence from a meta analysis abstractwe present a systematic review and meta analysis of impact evaluations of active labour market programmes almps in latin america and the caribbean lac we extract 296 impact estimates f

a theory of commodity price fluctuations this paper studies the price fluctuations of storable commodities that are traded in open markets and are subject to random shocks to demand or more particularly to supply it relaxes the common assumption that the shocks are identically and independently distributed in favor of temporally dependent and periodic disturbances the existence of a unique stationary rational expectations equilibrium is demonstrated for each of the models analyzed and testable implications of the models are derived an illustrative empirical investigation is then undertaken for the model with periodic disturbances using monthly time series observations for seven commodities over the period 1960 93

modeling the market and welfare effects of mexico s agriculture by contract program agriculture by contract hbox a times hbox c is the main mexican government program aimed at mitigating price risks for agricultural producers in mexico hbox a times hbox c has unique features involving forward contracts and the provision of basis subsidies and subsidized exchange traded futures options for both producers and intermediaries a simulation model is developed to analyze the market and welfare effects of hbox a times hbox c when applied to corn results show that hbox a times hbox c exerts substantial impacts and causes large transfers across sectors even if hbox a times hbox c reduced intermediaries market power to the largest extent feasible results indicate that it would still cause important losses in aggregate welfare

bankruptcies firm size and unemployment a big bang theory of economic cycles this paper analyses the impact of bankruptcies on unemployment in an economy characterised by no substitutability of labour a computer simulation model is used to analyse its properties spectral analysis reveals the existence of cycles in unemployment it is found that average unemployment tends to be lower the more flexible are wages and interest rates provided both move anticyclically and the more rapid is the speed with which existing firms expand an economy characterised by small firms is found to be more stable with a tendency to a longer cycle than one characterised by large firms however given the assumptions we have made it is also likely to be characterised by higher average unemployment

hysteresis and instability in the natural rate of unemployment in this paper it is pointed out that the long run phillips curve genus contains upward and downward sloping species as well as the vertical species two models are used in one the rate of inflation helps determine the natural rate of unemployment as proposed by friedman in the other the process of moving from one inflation rate to another helps shape the natural rate according to the hysteresis effect proposed by phelps in both cases the resulting models are unstable implying that a vertical long run phillips curve will not be regained if disturbed

small business failure and external risk factors unlike much of the previous literature which has generally focused on internal risk factors this study seeks to explore the impact of macro economic factors on small business mortality the results suggest that economic factors appear to be associated with between 30 and 50 of small business failures depending on the definition of failure used as expected failure rates were positively associated with interest rates where failure was defined as bankruptcy and the rate of unemployment where failure was defined as discontinuance of ownership however somewhat unexpectedly failure rates were found to be positively associated with lagged employment rates where failure was defined as to prevent further losses and with current and lagged retail sales where failure was defined as either failed to make a go of it discontinuance of ownership or discontinuance of business this indicates that a strengthening economy may provide the trigger for an increase in voluntary business exits as individual proprietors seek to maximize the returns available to them on both their financial and human capital

real exchange rates under the gold standard can they be explained by the trend break model abstract we investigate whether real exchange rates under the gold standard can be modeled as stationary around a broken trend using both conventional unit root and sequential trend break tests we clearly reject the unit root null for 14 of the 16 exchange rates studied by diebold husted and rush journal of political economy 1991 99 and provide some evidence against a unit root for another we interpret our results as being complementary to the evidence for fractional integration found by diebold husted and rush in both cases the unit root null can be decisively rejected if the alternative is more flexible than a deterministic trend without breaks

competitive storage and commodity price dynamics by buying cheap and selling dear risk neutral commodity speculators can smooth commodity prices and induce serial dependence in price even when none would exist under a simple process of supply and demand commodity prices are variable and strongly positively correlated from one year to the next the variability is often explained by supply factors and the autocorrelation by the activities of speculators we show that this explanation is not consistent with the evidence speculation can substantially increase autocorrelation for prices that are weakly autocorrelated in its absence but not to the high levels that are observed in the data

active labor market policy evaluations a meta analysis this article presents a meta analysis of recent microeconometric evaluations of active labour market policies we categorise 199 programme impacts from 97 studies conducted between 1995 and 2007 job search assistance programmes yield relatively favourable programme impacts whereas public sector employment programmes are less effective training programmes are associated with positive medium term impacts although in the short term they often appear ineffective we also find that the outcome variable used to measure programme impact matters but neither the publication status of a study nor the use of a randomised design is related to the sign or significance of the programme estimate

what makes german banks different the past few years have seen a revival in the academic debate over the economic functions of german banks this paper takes the position that large non financial firms have become highly autonomous of the banks and the corporate governance role of banks while still important is much less significant than widely presumed german banks however do fulfill certain economic functions to a greater degree and in a different manner than banks in other countries these bank functions of long term commercial financing comprehensive management consulting and supporting diversified quality production strategies are made possible by the institutional character of the banking system itself and the institutional context in which it operates a complex web of government laws regulations and government financial aid combine with bank group competition to create an extensive and successful financial support system for german smes this system faces various adjustment challenges from international financial market integration to eu regulatory harmonization but it has thus far managed to adapt while sustaining its core functions

does bank affiliation mitigate liquidity constraints evidence from germany s universal banks in the pre world war i period this paper compares two similar samples of mining and steel corporations in pre world war i germany one sample consists of corporations that were affiliated to one or more of the german universal banks and the second sample consists of companies that had to rely on other sources of finance statistical analysis conducted in the framework of a linear fixed effects model indicates that the non affiliated companies were liquidity constrained the paper also sets out the corporate control structure as laid down in the trade law reform of 1884 and traces the origins of the current german dual board system as well as the origins of several other aspects of the institutions that tied the german banking system to industrial concerns

insolvency in agriculture bad managers or the common agricultural policy bad management is often blamed for the failure of firms yet an empirical investigation of the annual rate of insolvency in agriculture and horticulture in england and wales revealed a relationship with the price of land the rate of insolvency was negatively related to the current price of land but the lag structure estimated suggests that the rate of insolvency could be positively related to the land price two years previously this result is in accordance with a theoretical model which shows that the optimal gearing strategy under rising land prices induces farmers to increase their indebtedness since common agricultural policy price support has become capitalized into land prices this suggests that some of the insolvency in agriculture and horticulture was the result of previous agricultural policy the results do however underline farm management advice that farmers should beware of relying on capital gains to remain in business

financing the german mittelstand this paper describes how the german mittelstand or small and medium sized enterprises are financed in germany the role of the german mittelstand both in a static and in a dynamic framework is described and contrasted with that of the same size group in other leading industrialised countries we find that in general the mittelstand has played a mmore important role in germany than in other industrialised nations such as the united states or the united kingdom the traditional success of the german mittelstand is partly attributable to a system of finance that is richly layered by complementary institutions designed to meet the financial needs of both large and smaller enterprises however we find evidence that even under the german system of finance liquidity constraints exist and are greater for smaller firms the german system of finance moreover seems particularly deficient in the channeling of funds to new firm startups in the newer industries

does firm size matter evidence on the impact of liquidity constraints on firm investment behavior in germany abstract this paper examines the link between liquidity constraints and investment behavior for german firms of different sizes from 1970 to 1986 results indicate that medium sized firms appear to be more liquidity constrained in their investment behavior than either the smallest or largest firms in the study suggesting that the unique german infrastructure designed to assist the small firm has indeed succeeded in alleviating to some degree such liquidity constraints findings also support the hypothesis that the emerging competition and internationalism which characterized the german financial markets in the 1980s have been improving access to capital for some groups of firms

when grilli and yang meet prebisch and singer piecewise linear trends in primary commodity prices abstract in this study we test the prebisch singer hypothesis on the secular decline of relative primary commodity prices with the extended grilli and yang 1988 data set ending at 2010 rather than asking whether it holds for the whole sample period we examine if the hypothesis holds sometimes during the sample period by estimating the piecewise linear trends of primary commodity prices we employ the new l1 trend filtering proposed by kim et al 2009 to estimate the piecewise linear trends we find that the prebisch singer hypothesis holds sometimes but not always for many of the primary commodities in the grilli yang data the strength of the prebisch singer hypothesis has become substantially weaker recently as the relative prices of many primary commodities have increased sharply since around 2000

increasing returns and the foundations of unemployment theory current approaches to macroeconomic theory divide roughly into two basic schools of thought one approach typically associated with rational expectations views the economy as basically at or near walrasian market clearing equilibrium in which case it becomes very difficult to explain away convincingly the undeniable persistence at times of involuntary unemployment another approach views the underemployed economy as being in a state of temporary fixed price disequilibrium in which case aside from having to repress suspicions that the essence of effective demand failure might not have to do with prices fixed at wrong values there is a lot of rationalising to be done about why profitable adjustments are so slow this paper argues that something like an internally consistent theory of steady state involuntary unemployment is possible and even plausible the cornerstone of this third approach is increasing returns to scale which blocks unemployed agents from breaking out of a low level equilibrium trap unless there is overall coordination or stimulation a simple model is presented which contains the basic ideas

the effect of bank monitoring on the investment behavior of spanish firms abstract there is a large body of theoretical work that shows that information problems in the capital market have important effects on both the financial structure and the investment policy of the firm these information problems arise when debt and equity are diffusely held and no individual investor has an incentive to monitor the firm we test the hypothesis that banks can compensate for capital market imperfections due to asymmetric information we find that the neoclassical investment model cannot be rejected for a sample of spanish firms with a close bank relationship while it is rejected for the subsample made up of the remaining firms an augmented model incorporating borrowing constraints yields the opposite results these results suggest that banks may play a role in alleviating capital market imperfections in spain

hierarchies and markets abstract whereas previous empirical studies have found performance gains from the adoption of multidivisional organization in u s and u k companies this paper reports a reduction in profitability for german m form firms for several years following reorganization with no sign of an eventual positive gain these results emerge from a cross section analysis of 48 among the top 100 german companies we suggest the constrasting results may flow from certain legal and institutional features not present in the u s and u k attenuating potential gains and enlarging short run transactions costs these include the role of the banks the relative concentration of shareholdings and the dual system of company boards

macroeconomic determinants of corporate failures evidence from the uk previous studies on the relationship between macroeconomic aggregates and business failures have been restricted to the description of the short run relationships among the variables this paper uses an error correction model ecm to investigate the determinants of uk corporate failures by modelling the short run and long run behaviours of corporate failure rates in relation to macroeconomic phenomena over the period 1966 1999 the findings indicate that failure rates are associated with interest rates credit profits price and corporate birth rates both in the short run and in the long run of these macroeconomic variables interest rate appears to be an important factor influencing failure rates and can be used as a feasible policy instrument to reduce the incidence of corporate failures the impact of the insolvency act 1986 has also been examined and its mitigating effect on corporate failures has been identified

output consumption and the stock market implications for european convergence this paper investigates the nature of the relationship between output and stock prices and consumption and stock prices with respect to the different financial structures that exist primarily in the european union eu evidence is found of a long run relationship for both relationships with the exception of germany and to an extent france which is argued is due to their bank dominated financial systems kalman filter estimates reveal that both relationships have increased in strength although little evidence is found of any convergence in the strength of the relationship across the eu

the efficient estimation of econometric models with rational expectations the efficient estimation of econometric models with rational expectations by the substitution method usually entails the use of a non linear simultaneous equations estimator and hence is not very attractive computationally it is shown that for a wide class of problems efficient estimates can also be obtained with standard estimation methods if instead an errors in variables approach is used for many other problems although not providing fully efficient estimates because rationality is not imposed the errors in variables method will still have a strong appeal because otherwise it uses all of the structural information in the model unlike the substitution method when an incomplete information set is used it guarantees consistent estimates and it is easy to compute

corporate governance and equity prices evidence from the czech and slovak republics the 1992 czechoslavakia mass privatization program involving about 1 500 eneterprises and implemented through a voucher scheme with competitive bidding was a bold step in changing the ownership and governance of a large part of the economy it represents a clear test case of one approach and other countries may benefit from its lessons at the time much skepticisism was voiced about mass privatization it would lead to diffuse ownership and no effective corporate governance would result but innovative forces led to the emergence of investment funds that collected much of the individuals voucher points leading to a much more concentrated ownership structure it has been expected that this concentrated ownership would lead to improved corporate governance but the jury is still out so far only limited and largely anecdotal evidence is available on the impact investment funds have on the way firms are being managed too little time has passed and too many shocks have occurred for example the split of the czech and slovak republics to expect to find discernible changes in corporate governance on measures of actual firm performance an alternative approach is to investigate whether firms that ended up with more concentrated ownership and possibly improved governance sell for higher prices either in the last voucher round or in the secondary market since then in a forward looking financial market one can expect prices to incorporate the effects of better ownership on future firm performance and associated dividends to shareholders put differently one would expect that two firms with different shareholding structures but otherwise identical would trade at different prices with the firm with a more concentrated ownership and presumably better corporate governance trading at a higher price on a cross sectional basis ownership structure may thus be significant in explaining relative share prices the author explores this line of reasoning controlling for a number of firm and sector specific variables he finds 1 majority ownership by a domestic or foreign investor has a positive influence on firm prices 2 firms with many small owners have lower prices 3 ownership by many small scale investors makes it easier for any single investor to establish effective control but such control does not necessarily translate into higher prices the author also provides two possible explanations of why higher prices appear to be associated only with majority ownership by a single investor he finds 1 the corporate legal framework and the difficulty in collecting proxy votes in the czech and slovak republics may prevent a small investor from making the necessary changes in the way firms are managed thus keeping prices low and 2 commercial banks are both managers of invesment funds and creditors of individual firms funds managers may face conflicts of interest and not be interested in increasing the value of equity alone but also the value of credits this could explain why prices are relatively lower for those firms in which investment funds have effective control

do futures benefit farmers simulations are used to analyze welfare and market and farm level effects of making futures available to producers of a storable commodity key features of the model are the explicit consideration of dynamic impacts due to inventories and of aggregate market effects associated with futures adoption by some producers application to the natural rubber market shows that futures availability can lead to sizeable market and farm level effects futures availability enhances consumer welfare reduces non adopter welfare and yields important welfare gains for adopters when their market share is small and welfare losses when they account for a sufficiently large market share

a dynamic analysis of mortgage arrears in the uk housing market summary the uk economy has enjoyed an unprecedented period of positive economic growth since the early 1990s the absence of recession for more than a decade has been accompanied by a sustained decline in the level of mortgage arrears as reported by major lenders this paper seeks to examine the factors which have driven the reduction in mortgage arrears and in doing so identify those factors which are most likely to cause arrears to increase in the future should economic conditions deteriorate the paper employs the johansen methodology to test for the presence of multiple cointegrating vectors an error correction model is estimated in order to examine long run and short run dynamics in mortgage arrears in line with previous research concerning the causes of mortgage arrears the results presented here emphasise the importance of changes in the rate of unemployment loan income and debt service ratios more importantly our results highlight the statistical significance of unwithdrawn housing equity as an explanatory variable with respect to mortgage arrears

bad luck and fixed costs in personal bankruptcies this paper applies a model of industrial equilibrium to determine the effects of demand and cost variables on the bankruptcy rate of unincorporated businesses in four industries when there are stochastic cost and demand shocks the results suggest that different processes are relevant for firms whose fixed costs are associated with fixed capital assets and with working capital in contrast to earlier work on the corporate sector real and nominal interest rates have either small or unexpected effects copyright 1989 by royal economic society