house price dynamics with dispersed information abstract we use a user cost model to study how dispersed information affects the equilibrium house price in the model agents are disparately informed about local economic conditions consume housing services and speculate on price changes optimists who expect high house price growth buy in anticipation of capital gains pessimists who expect capital losses prefer to rent because of short selling constraints on housing pessimistic expectations are not incorporated in the price of owned houses and the equilibrium price is higher and more volatile relative to the benchmark case of common information we present evidence supporting the model s predictions in a panel of us cities

wheat from chaff meta analysis as quantitative literature review abstract this paper presents and develops a quantitative method of literature reviewing and evaluating empirical research meta regression analysis or mra economics is theory driven yet we must learn empirically if economics is to advance mra offers a more objective statistical method to summarize our empirical knowledge and to explain the wide study to study variation in economic research mra is used to assess the evidence for ricardian equivalence and its findings are contrasted to those of conventional narrative review furthermore mra establishes a platform from which to distinguish genuine empirical effect from the exploitable specification error that infests applied econometrics

how does political connection affect firm financial distress and resolution in china we examine the impact of political connections on firm performance financial distress and its resolution in china a country where government influence over stock markets has been demonstrated to

betting on hitler the value of political connections in nazi germany this paper examines the value of connections between german industry and the nazi movement in early 1933 drawing on previously unused contemporary sources about management and supervisory board composition and stock returns we find that one out of seven firms and a large proportion of the biggest companies had substantive links with the national socialist german workers party firms supporting the nazi movement experienced unusually high returns outperforming unconnected ones by 5 to 8 between january and march 1933 these results are not driven by sectoral composition and are robust to alternative estimators and definitions of affiliation

conflict cooperation and commerce the effect of international political interactions on bilateral trade flows the public choice approach to political economy is employed to gain insight into the connection between international politics and trade flows a model is constructed in which importers are assumed to be rational utility maximizers who seek to satisfy international security as well as economic welfare objectives this model of bilateral trade flows reflects contemporary theory in the field of international economics and it explicitly incorporates the general foreign policy orientation of importers among its determinants the model is tested in 16 annual crosssectional estimations 1960 75 for a complete network of 25 countries the findings show considerable support for the hypothesis that trade flows are significantly influenced by broad political relations of amity and enmity between nations the author concludes that nations adjust trade ties to satisfy security as well as economic welfare goals and that a formal political economy of trade should reflect this fact

the dynamic correlation and volatility of real estate price and rental an application of msv model this article investigates the dynamic conditional correlation between price and rental among four types of real estate markets namely housing retail office and factory in the case of hong kong from january 1993 to december 2008 the dynamic conditional correlation multivariate stochastic volatility dcc msv model and bayesian markov chain monte carlo mcmc are employed to capture the volatility and time varying correlation of property price and rental in each market the empirical results demonstrate that the volatilities of price are significantly larger than those of rental for each type of real estate markets throughout the whole sample period besides the findings indicate that the correlations between price and rental are time varying and the average correlation in the housing market is much larger than those in the other three markets also the conditional correlations in the factory market are the most volatile while those in the office market are relatively stable additionally two pa

bias in the post ipo earnings forecasts of affiliated analysts evidence from a chinese natural experiment investment banks and issuers of chinese domestic ipos became fully responsible for ipo offer prices only on june 10 2009 before this regulatory reform the optimistic bias in post ipo earnings forecasts is highly comparable across affiliated and unaffiliated analysts afterward the forecasts of affiliated analysts are 33 percentage points more positively distorted on average in the first 90 days after an ipo this relative forecast bias even increases to 63 percentage points and enlarges further when the issuer s stock price drops in the aftermarket affiliated analysts distort especially their forecasts for fiscal years further away from the forecast release date

agglomeration adjustment and state policies in the location of foreign direct investment in the united states abstract using u s state level data we show that agglomeration externalities influence the level of foreign invested capital in a location our empirical model allows the separation of agglomeration effects from the rate of capital stock adjustment two forces that previous research has conflated we estimate an agglomeration elasticity of investment of 0 11 to 0 15 with respect to same source country investment lower than previous estimates we also investigate the influence of state policies and find that although general investment incentives do not affect the location of fdi targeted policies such as unitary taxation and state foreign offices influence investment

export promotion agencies do they work abstract the number of national export promotion agencies epas has tripled over the last two decades while more countries made them part of their export strategy studies criticized their efficacy in developing countries epas were retooled partly in response to these critiques this paper studies the impact of today s epas and their strategies based on new survey data covering 103 developing and developed countries results suggest that on average they have a statistically significant effect on exports our identification strategies highlight the importance of epa services for overcoming foreign trade barriers and solving asymmetric information problems associated with exports of heterogeneous goods there are also strong diminishing returns suggesting that as far as epas are concerned small is beautiful

geographic reallocation and unemployment during the great recession the role of the housing bust abstract we provide a spatial general equilibrium model of migration and job searching to study the role the housing bust played in mobility rates and labor market outcomes we estimate the parameters governing the migration decisions of households using data on state level migration and labor market patterns from 1991 to 2007 and use the estimated model to characterize the effects of the housing market collapse on labor market outcomes our analysis suggests that the housing bust is responsible for 12 of the increase in unemployment as it reduces workers reallocation and forces more homeowners to look for jobs in areas with lower job finding rates

protection or expropriation politically connected independent directors in china abstract this paper empirically investigates politically connected independent directors among chinese listed firms using 7487 firm year observations from the shanghai stock exchange during the period of 2003 2012 we distinguish between privately controlled firms and state controlled firms we find that the value effect and incentives of appointing independent directors with political ties are shaped by a firm s ownership structure more exactly chinese listed privately controlled firms with a large fraction of politically connected independent directors tend to outperform their non connected counterparts due to the ease of access to external debt financing and more subsidies from the government however the appointment of politically connected independent directors also enlarges the magnitude of related party transactions with the controlling party in listed privately controlled firms in contrast having politicians as independent directors does not help to add value to listed state controlled firms especially firms controlled by the local government due to the expropriation of minority investors via more related party transactions and more severe over investment problems

why do firms hide bribes and unofficial activity after communism abstract our survey of private manufacturing firms finds the size of hidden unofficial activity to be much larger in russia and ukraine than in poland slovakia and romania a comparison of cross country averages shows that managers in russia and ukraine face higher effective tax rates worse bureaucratic corruption greater incidence of mafia protection and have less faith in the court system our firm level regressions for the three eastern european countries find that bureaucratic corruption is significantly associated with hiding output

house prices and marital stability we investigate the effect of house price changes on divorce using data for 1991 2010 from the current population survey and the federal housing finance agency our findings suggest that changing house prices significantly affect the share of a cohort that is divorced and that these effects are asymmetric with respect to housing gains versus losses in addition we find differential effects for groups that are more likely to be homeowners versus renters some of this evidence is consistent with homeowners being locked into their homes and hence marriages by increased transactions costs in down markets

equity and time to sale in the real estate market evidence from the boston condominium market of the early 1990s reveals that an owner s equity position determines his experience as a seller an owner of a property with a high loan to value ratio sets a higher asking price has a higher expected time on the market and if he sells receives a higher price than an owner with proportionately less debt the down payment requirement for purchasers but not incumbent owners provides a simple explanation for this phenomenon among owner occupants the results provide supporting evidence for equity based aggregate theories of price volume movements in the housing market copyright 1997 by american economic association

ask prices offers and time to sale in an online exchange i introduction in this article we consider the role served by the ask price posted by sellers in an online exchange for used computers the functional role served by the ask price in this exchange is similar to that in other bilateral exchange settings the ask price is not binding and essentially serves as a starting point for negotiations furthermore every offer that we observe by buyers lies well below the ask price this type of bargaining institution is common in online marketplaces and also in markets for used cars housing and goods sold through want ads placed in newspapers the general finding of empirical literature examining these other markets is that ask prices convey information a high ask price may indicate a desire by the seller to hold out for a higher offer in such a setting ask price dispersion may arise if sellers trade off higher prices against the likelihood of making a sale high ask prices will then lead to higher sale prices on average but longer time on the market the standard justification for the inverse relationship between ask prices and time on the market is that a seller asking a high price will receive fewer offers if search by buyers is costly most of the existing findings in support of this view have focused on real estate markets as an empirical matter it is not clear that ask prices should play a similar role in the online setting that we examine although the notion that sellers have differing reservation prices seems plausible if the market is characterized by perfect information and costless search then ask prices will serve no functional role this is important because there is a general anecdotal view that online markets serve as sufficiently effective mechanisms for information transmission that search is costless in such a setting an initial ask price posted by the seller would be irrelevant one caveat to this view is that although information is readily available online it may be costly to process the used computers sold on this exchange are complex products that differ on a number of dimensions viewing the large amount of information available and forming an estimate of willingness to pay in such a situation is a nontrivial task though the cost in terms of time and effort required to process this information does not fall as neatly within the imperfect information paradigm as does the housing market it is clearly analogous the search costs involved in visiting and walking through a house for sale are substantial but relative to the value of the house they may be no larger than the costs of viewing and assessing the characteristics of a used computer it is possible then that the immediate access to information online may not eliminate search costs one contribution of our research therefore is an assessment of the extent to which online markets can be thought of as search markets our approach is to see whether the relationship between ask prices offers and time to sale on the exchange is similar to that in other markets characterized by costly search our data differ in some key ways from that available in more traditional settings for example data regarding the number of offers a given property receives are rarely available in housing markets nor in many cases is the sequence of offers for a given property observable in our case we observe the number of offers made and the level of each offer a disadvantage of our data is that we do not observe final transaction prices because once computers are sold they are removed from the publicly available listings on the exchange thus we cannot directly estimate the relationship between ask prices and sale prices we can however estimate the relationship between the ask price and the level of the highest outstanding i e rejected offer that the computer received this allows us to test the implication that sellers with high ask prices are more likely to reject offers of a given level

who leaves money on the table the role of founder identity in hong kong abstractthis study investigates the effect of corporate governance factors on the underpricing of initial public offerings ipos in hong kong and the results show that this effect is significant ipos are categorized into four subgroups based on the role of the founder 1 no founder firms companies with no specific founder 2 pure founder firms companies whose founder is neither the company s chairman of the board nor its ceo 3 founder chairman ceo firms companies whose founder is either the company s chairman of the board or its ceo and 4 founder chairman ceo firms companies whose founder is the chairman and ceo the results demonstrate a significant descending pattern for the underpricing level of the four subgroups which can be explained by the varying incentive and behaviour mechanisms that result from the various founder identities

portfolio choices for homeowners abstract in this paper i show that introducing frictions associated with housing into standard life cycle models can partially resolve the portfolio choice puzzle i calibrate a model in which a representative household endogenously transits from renting to mortgage financed homeownership the household can later adjust housing status either voluntarily or because of a forced move by paying transaction costs it is shown that homeownership crowds out stock market participation risky owner occupied housing substitutes for stocks while bonds provide liquidity young and middle aged households regardless of whether they are currently homeowners hold much less stock than predicted by traditional models without housing

share issue privatizations as financial means to political and economic ends abstract this study examines how political and economic factors affect the offer price share allocation and other terms governments choose when they privatize state owned enterprises via a public share offering using a 59 country sample of 630 share issue privatizations sips with total proceeds of over 446 billion during the period 1977 1997 we find that governments consistently underprice sip offers tilt their share allocation patterns to favour domestic investors impose control restrictions on privatized firms and typically use fixed price offers rather than book building or competitive tender offers all to further political and economic policy objectives

measuring the influence of space and time effects on time on the market this paper is concerned with spatial effects of time on the market for residential property and time varying relationships using a dataset of properties from the adelaide metropolitan area australia during the period 2002 2011 the analysis firstly considers the spatial dependence in time on the market and secondly extends the analysis to a space time model using 2sls regression the findings demonstrate the complexity in spatial analysis with results indicating a random distribution of time on the market in 86 of observations a pattern that is consistent over time spatial autocorrelation is shown to increase time on the market in the subject property while spatial error decreases time on the market in the subject property suggesting a high level of market transparency and improved liquidity the compensating or nullifying effects of both types of spatial association is shown to contribute to the random distribution observed in time on the market a strong explanatory capacity of the business cycle suggests that economic drivers are leading time on the market rather than prices abstract from author

private sector share of external debt and financial stability evidence from bank loans abstract in the last two decades the private sector has contracted a substantially larger share in the total amount of foreign currency international debt private sector share of external debt especially in developing countries in this paper i empirically examine the effect of this phenomenon on bank loan prices i find that the private sector share of external debt negatively and significantly impacts the price of bank loans this result supports the hypothesis that private sector debt contributes to international financial stability to a greater degree than sovereign debt nevertheless this impact is canceled out in the presence of fixed exchange regimes that are unsuitable with respect to fundamentals in such circumstances the private sector may take advantage of capital market distortions that are maintained by official authorities and thus exposes the country to further financial instability additional results corroborate the observation that the gain in financial stability stems from more efficient use of funds and reduced monitoring costs

too close for comfort geographic propinquity to political power and stock returns abstract we show that firm headquarters geographic proximity to political power centers state capitals is associated with higher abnormal returns consistent with the notion that this effect is rooted in social network links we find it is more pronounced in communities with high levels of sociability and political values homophily and that it dissipates when firms move their headquarters to another state finally in line with the view that investors perceive such networks to be associated with political risk we find that this effect is particularly strong when there are substantial levels of corruption dependency on government spending and politicians turnover

estimating house price indexes in the presence of seller reservation prices we analyze a bias in transaction based price indexes due to the presence of seller reservation prices we develop a model in which the ratio of sellers reservation prices to the market value affects trading volume and biases of observed transaction prices when trading volume decreases increases index returns are estimated with an upward downward bias we propose a new econometric procedure to mitigate the bias and use simulations to demonstrate the effectiveness of the procedure we construct a reserve conditional unbiased index for the los angeles housing market which substantially differs from a traditional repeat sale index

state ownership and market liberalization evidence from china s domestic m a market abstract we study how state ownership affects the post merger performance of chinese acquirers and find that state owned acquirers soes experience a significantly larger long term performance improvement following mergers compared to their non state owned nsoe counterparts when partitioning the sample period into acquisitions made prior to and following china s split share reform of 2005 we find that the post merger performance improvement of soe acquirers is largely attributed to the post reform period in which controlling shareholders converted their non tradable shares into tradable status our results are consistent with the interpretation that state intervention in the form of capital market liberalization and alleviation of governance problems combined with political connections and privileged access to financing may have a positive effect on m a performance that outweighs the inefficiency cost of state ownership in china

a disequilibrium model of the market for houses implicit selling time as a signal of optimal holding periods and buyer valuation a theoretical model is developed of house market disequilibrium price and quantity adjustments occur as the consequence of inventory adjustment in the absence of a market maker this approach reve

cross national comparison of export promotion services the views of canadian and austrian companies export promotion systems in canada and austria are contrasted and their services evaluated from a company perspective the canadian system is government based while the austrian one operates in the private sector apart from the philosophy under which these export support systems operate they differ also in strategic orientation a survey of stratified samples of exporters in canada 271 and austria 312 shows significant differences in perceived usefulness of services given similar exporter needs companies desire more tailored support as well as greater involvement of private sector institutions which are not currently providing export support overall austrian companies appear more inclined to use export support and generally seem more willing to acquire exporting know how externally compared to canadian firms conclusions are offered with respect to improving the respective export promotion systems

when and where does foreign direct investment generate positive spillovers a meta analysis local firms may attract productivity spillovers from foreign investors yet these vary with local firms awareness capability and motivation to react to foreign entry in consequence spillovers vary across countries at different levels of economic development we apply competitive dynamics theory to analyze these contextual moderators of spillovers and test hypotheses thus derived in a meta analysis of the empirical literature on spillovers our analysis suggests a curvilinear relationship between spillovers and the host country s level of development in terms of income institutional framework and human capital

what is the role of the asking price for a house abstract this paper considers the role of the asking price in housing transactions both theoretically and empirically significant fractions of housing transactions involve sales prices that are either below or above asking price which might suggest that asking price has limited relevance however many housing transactions involve a sales price exactly equal to asking price a fact that has previously drawn little notice strongly suggesting that asking price does matter the paper develops a model where asking price is neither a binding commitment nor a ceiling yet still directs buyer search and impacts sales price using novel survey data the paper provides empirical evidence consistent with asking price playing a directing role in buyer search consistent with theory this effect is stronger for more atypical houses and in bust markets

does economic diplomacy work a meta analysis of its impact on trade and investment we review the literature on economic diplomacy and provide a meta analysis of 32 empirical studies published in 1986 2011 that deal with the trade and investment impact of economic diplomacy embassies consulates other diplomatic facilities investment and export promotion offices trade and state visits controlling for differences in research design methodology time frame and manner of data we find a positive and significant effect of economic diplomacy on international economic flows with the exception of state visits and that this is true in a sample of 627 t statistics analysed with ols and for a larger sample of 963 reported significance levels analysed with logit thus illustrating robustness with respect to sample and estimation technique our analyses show that reported effects of economic diplomacy on trade and investment in individual studies are sensitive to model specification the primary studies that investigate only one source country are less likely to report significant positive effects compared to other sciences economic studies are less likely to report significantly positive effects of economic diplomacy primary studies lump embassies and consulates general into one indicator miss that these instruments differ significantly embassies consulates and agencies should thus be included as separate instruments in future research

stock splits to profit insider trading lessons from an emerging market abstract stock splits have long presented financial puzzles why are they undertaken why are they associated with abnormal returns abnormal returns particularly those coming shortly before a split s announcement date should raise strong suspicions of insider trading particularly in nations with weak regulatory structures we examined the 718 split events in the emerging stock market of vietnam from 2007 through 2011 we found evidence consistent with illegal insider trading particularly in firms that were vulnerable to insider manipulation and therefore more likely to split their stocks when vulnerable firms stocks did split they provided significant excess short term returns tellingly the abnormal returns on those stocks prior to the split announcements were also extremely high indeed higher than their abnormal post announcement returns moreover trading volume increased prior to the split announcement date this suspicious pattern is what we would expect if insiders were trading on their knowledge we propose that illegal insider trading in contexts where it is possible to escape serious penalty provides a previously undiscussed and cogent explanation for both stock splits and abnormal short term returns

length of stay for low cost tourism abstract awareness of tourists length of stay and the factors which determine that is an essential element for good planning and management at tourist destinations this article analyses to what extent the personal characteristics of the low cost tourist those of the trip and stay and those of the destination itself are significant in determining the duration of a trip to this end an econometric duration model is estimated the results obtained show that the effect of time restrictions seem to be relevant for explaining the observed differences in length of stay as well as the effects of the tourist s spending capacity prices and the differences between urban and sun and sand destinations furthermore the model also allows us to analyse changes in the likelihood of the stay being ended at a specific point in time hazard associated with changes in the explanatory variables and to obtain predicted survival times for different groups of tourists

is the ipo pricing process efficient this paper investigates underwriters treatment of public information throughout the ipo pricing process two key findings emerge first public information is not fully incorporated into the initial price range while the economic magnitude of the bias is small it is puzzling because it is not clear who benefits from it further it indicates that the filing range midpoint is not an unbiased predictor of the offer price as prior literature has assumed second while public information is similarly not fully incorporated into the final offer price the small economic significance of this relation indicates that the ipo pricing process is almost efficient

asset level risk and return in real estate investments relatively little is known in the academic literature about the idiosyncratic returns of individual real estate investments though quite a few commercial properties command prices commensurate with the market values of small to medium publicly traded companies i use purchase and sale data from the national council of real estate investment fiduciaries ncreif to compute holding period price appreciation returns for commercial properties in stark contrast with liquid asset returns idiosyncratic drift and volatility estimates diverge as the holding period shrinks this puzzling phenomenon survives a variety of controls for vintage effects systematic risk heterogeneity and sample selection biases i derive an equilibrium search based illiquid asset pricing model which when calibrated fits the data very well thus a structural model of illiquidity seems crucial to a descriptive theory of real estate investment returns the model can be extended to other illiquid asset classes and used to price derivatives such as debt claims

the effect of political events on united states direct foreign investment a pooled time series cross sectional analysis this paper examines the effect of political events on the manufacturing direct foreign investment mdfi decisions of u s multinational corporations the relationship between political events and nonpolitical factors and mdfi is investigated through regression analysis of pooled time series 21 years and cross sectional 24 countries data and through various tests of the homogeneity of the relationship across groups of countries the study finds that the relationship between political events in mdfi is different for less developed countries as opposed to developed countries for the less developed countries both inter nation and intra nation conflict and cooperation affect mdfi in contrast u s mdfi in developed countries appears to be affected only by inter nation conflict and cooperation

state visits and international trade politicians travel extensively abroad for various reasons one purpose of external visits is to improve bilateral economic relations in this paper i examine the effect of state visits on international trade i use a large data set covering the travel activities of the heads of state of france germany and the united states between 1948 and 2003 my results indicate that state and official visits are indeed positively correlated with exports a typical visit is associated with higher bilateral exports by about 8 to 10 per cent holding other things constant

bookbuilding vs fixed price an analysis of competing strategies for marketing ipos we compare two mechanisms for selling ipos the fixed price method and american book building when investors have correlated information and can observe each other s subscription decisions in this environment the fixed price method is a strategy that can create cascading demand alternatively an underwriter building a book aggregates investor information into the offer price we find that bookbuilding generates higher expected proceeds but exposes the issuer to greater uncertainty and that it provides the option to sell additional shares that are not underpriced on the margin

implicit house prices variation over time and space in spain asking price has a fundamental influence on market behaviour and understanding how attributes affect the perceived price of housing this paper employs a large database of houses from the spanish housing market to estimate the role of attributes in asking price formation star methodology and glm with random effects are used to extract the price of attributes and the spatial and time pattern results show that the pricing of attributes varies by geographical region and over time with property size and economic and demographic attributes being the key variables explaining asking price formation

do political factors affect stock returns during presidential elections abstract this study investigates whether or not political factors such as government policy and political connections affected stock returns during the 2008 taiwanese presidential election we find that firms that benefitted from were threatened by the proposed three links policy of the winning party experienced positive negative stock returns during the election we use the sensitivities of firms returns to bilateral trade flows between taiwan and china to measure the government policy effect our results show that the effects of political connections weakly exist but they become more significant when the support ratio of the winning party increased in polling data we also find that only the government policy effect holds for different crash risk and corporate governance levels finally investment strategies based on both political factors can generate positive abnormal returns with respect to the fama french three factor model

externalities in economies with imperfect information and incomplete markets this paper presents a simple general framework for analyzing externalities in economies with incomplete markets and imperfect infonnation by identifying the pecuniary effects of these externalities that net out the paper simplifies the problem of determining when tax interventions are pareto improving the approach indicates that such tax interventions almost always exist and that equilibria in situations of imperfect information are rarely constrained pareto optima it can also lead to simple tests based on readily observable indicators of the efficacy of particular tax policies in situations involving adverse selection signaling moral hazard incomplete contingent claims markets and queue rationing equilibria traditional discussions of externalities have emphasized the distinction between technological externalities in which the action of one individual or firm directly affects the utility or profit ofanother and pecuniary externalities in which one individual s or firm s actions affect another only through effects on prices while the presence of technological externalities imply in general that a competitive equilibrium may not be pareto efficient pecuniary externalities hy themselves are not a source of inefficiency the fact that prices change has of course important consequences there are both distributional and allocational effects but the distribution effects net out gains for example hy firms whose prices increase are precisely offset by losses e g to individuals who must pay higher prices and there are no welfare losses from the allocation effects as long as the price changes involved are small if firms are maximizing profits and individuals are maximizing utility both facing prices that correctly refiect opportunity costs then standard envelope theorem arguments imply that changes in profits or utility induced by changes in allocations resulting from any small change in prices are negligible

credit booms and lending standards evidence from the subprime mortgage market this paper links the u s subprime mortgage crisis to demand side factors that contributed to the rapid expansion of the u s mortgage market we show that denial rates were relatively lower in areas that experienced faster credit demand growth and that lenders in these high growth areas attached less weight to applicants loan to income ratios the results are robust to controlling for supply side factors including house price appreciation mortgage securitization and other economic fundamentals and to several robustness tests controlling for endogeneity the results are consistent with the notion that a relaxation of lending standards triggered by an increased demand for loans contributed to the boom and the ensuing crisis together with other supply side explanations these findings shed new light on the relationship between credit booms and financial instability

do lenders favor politically connected firms rent provision in an emerging financial market corruption by the politically connected is often blamed for economic ills particularly in less developed economies using a loan level data set of more than 90 000 rms that represents the universe of corporate lending in pakistan between 1996 and 2002 we investigate rents to politically connected rms in banking classifying a rm as political if its director participates in an election we examine the extent nature and economic costs of political rent provision we nd that political rms borrow 45 percent more and have 50 percent higher default rates such preferential treatment occurs exclusively in government banks private banks provide no

market thickness and the impact of unemployment on housing market outcomes abstract a search and matching model is developed to study how unemployment influences the housing market in the presence of the thick market effect a structural estimation of the model is conducted based on texas city level data that covers three years 1990 2000 and 2010 simulations help clarify how much the thick market effect amplifies the impact of unemployment a three percentage point increase in the unemployment rate lowers the price by 10 74 and reduces the transaction volume by 5 49 incorporating a feedback mechanism from housing prices to unemployment strengthens the amplification magnitude of the thick market effect

does trade still follow the flag t he economic ties between any two nations are frequently affected by a warming or cooling of bilateral diplomatic relations but there is little to be found in modern economics or political science that helps us understand the connections between international politics and commerce the notion that international economics could be studied in isolation from its political underpinnings or consequences would have been quite alien to mercantilist thinkers in the eighteenth century or to the critics or advocates of imperialism in the nineteenth that economics and politics were inextricably intertwined was taken as a matter of course indeed trade follows the flag was central to these people s understanding of world politics and international economics intellectual trends over the past century radically changed this worldview the ascendancy of liberalism in economic thought brought with it a compartmentalization of disciplines that may now be eroding but we are left with theories of international politics and economics that are very weakly bridged the objective of this study is to map one of the many connections between international politics and commercial ties specifically i seek to identify and measure the effect of changes in state to state diplomatic relations on trade flows between those nations theoretical underpinnings of my effort are in the tradition of public choice political economy frey 1984 because i treat importers as rational utility maximizers and their behavior as determined by preferences pursued within a context of specified constraints the model i put forward is wholly consistent with contemporary neoclassical trade theory but i extend the economists notion of welfare and contend that importers take account not only of the price and quantity of goods and services but of the place of origin of these products and the political relationship between the importing and the exporting nation they do so essentially for traditional security reasons that is importers are motivated to manage their trade relations in ways that minimize risks of disruption in supply or the possibility of hurting friends or

economic development as self discovery in the presence of uncertainty about what a country can be good at producing there can be great social value to discovering costs of domestic activities because such discoveries can be easily imitated we develop a general equilibrium framework for a small open economy to clarify the analytical and normative issues we highlight two failures of the laissez faire outcome there is too little investment and entrepreneurship ex ante and too much production diversification ex post optimal policy consists of counteracting these distortions to encourage investments in the modern sector ex ante but to rationalize production ex post we provide some informal evidence on the building blocks of our model

spatial lock in do falling house prices constrain residential mobility abstract falling house prices have caused numerous homeowners to suffer capital losses those with little home equity may be prevented from moving because of imperfections in housing finance markets the proceeds from the sale of their home may be insufficient to repay their mortgage and provide a down payment on a new home a data set of mortgages is used to examine the magnitude of these constraints estimates show that average mobility would have been 24 higher after 3 years had house prices not declined and after 4 years it would have been 33 higher among those with high initial loan to value ratios the differences are even greater

ipo mechanisms monitoring and ownership structure1 this paper analyzes the e ect of di erent ipo mechanisms on the structure of share ownership and explores the role of underpricing and rationing in determining investors shareholdings we focus on the agency problem that results when large institutions are the only investors capable of monitoring the firm whereas small shareholders free ride on these activities the major conclusion is that some well known aspects of ipos may be explained as rational responses by the issuer to the existence of regulatory constraints in public capital markets there is a two stage o ering mechanism in which the investment banker acting in the interests of the issuer optimally rations the allotment of shares to small investors in order to capture the benefits associated with better monitoring by institutions importantly in our model the existence of underpricing and oversubscription is an indication that the issuer has received a higher ex ante price than would have been obtained through a competitive walrasian type o ering process 1998 elsevier science s a all rights reserved jel classification g24 g32 g38

effectiveness of rca institutions to limit local externalities using foreclosure data to test covenant effectiveness residential community associations rcas are said to be an efficient institutional agreement to limit local spillovers while several studies have identified a positive marginal effect of rca rules none have explicitly measured the effectiveness of these institutions to limit local externalities this study measures this effectiveness by estimating how the direct and spillover price impacts caused by foreclosure differ by rca status using a spatial hedonic model that controls for selection bias using propensity score methods and coarsened exact matching we find that foreclosed rca properties experience smaller direct foreclosure discounts and produce smaller spill over effects than their non rca counterparts

signalling by underpricing in the ipo market abstract empirical evidence suggests the existence of hot issue markets for initial public offerings in certain periods and in certain industries new issues are underpriced and rationing occurs this paper develops a model consistent with this observation which assumes the firm itself best knows its prospects in certain circumstances firms with the most favorable prospects find it optimal to signal their type by underpricing their initial issue of shares and investors know that only the best can recoup the cost of this signal from subsequent issues

redlining in boston do mortgage lenders discriminate against neighborhoods historically lenders have been accused of redlining minority neighborhoods as well as refusing to lend to minority applicants considerable bank regulation is designed to prevent both actions however the strong correlation between race and neighborhood makes it difficult to distinguish the impact of geographic discrimination from the effects of racial discrimination previous studies have failed to untangle these two influences in part because of severe omitted variable bias the data set in this paper allows the distinct effects of race and geography to be identified and it shows that the evidence for redlining is weak

the social and private micro level consequences of homeownership abstract this paper reviews the literature that describes the micro level economic and social consequences of homeownership we adopt an interdisciplinary approach and include studies from economics sociology geography political science psychology and other disciplines our focus is on the set of consequences of homeownership in developed countries our list of potential outcomes of homeownership includes the impact on household wealth and portfolio choice mobility labor force participation urban structure and segregation home maintenance political and social activities health demographics self esteem and child outcomes there is substantial evidence that homeownership has important effects on some household behaviors and outcomes however we find that much of the past 30 year s literature on consequences of homeowning is deficient from a theoretical or econometric perspective we suggest solutions and identify research gaps present in the literature

estimates of the impact of crime risk on property values from megan s laws abstract we estimate the willingness to pay for reductions in crime risk using the location and move in dates of sex offenders we find significant effects of sex offenders locations that are geographically localized house prices within 0 1 miles of a sex offender fall by 4 percent on average we then use this finding to estimate the costs to victims of sexual offenses and find costs of over 1 million per victim far greater than previous estimates however we cannot reject the alternative hypotheses that individuals overestimate risks posed by offenders or that living near an offender poses significant costs exclusive of crime risk jel k42 r23 r31

the cyclical behavior of the beveridge curve in the housing market abstract this paper develops a business cycle model of the housing market with search frictions and entry of both buyers and sellers the housing market exhibits a well established cyclical component which features three stylized facts prices move in the same direction as sales and the number of houses for sale but opposite to the time it takes to sell a house these stylized facts imply that in the data housing vacancies and the number of buyers are positively correlated i e that the beveridge curve is upward sloping a baseline search and matching model of the housing market is unable to match these stylized facts because it inherently generates a downward sloping beveridge curve with free entry of both buyers and sellers our model reproduces the positive correlation between prices sales and vacancies and matches the stylized facts qualitatively and quantitatively

player and referee roles held jointly the effect of state ownership on china s regulatory enforcement against fraud this article examines the impact of the prevailing state ownership in the chinese stock market on corporate governance and the financial regulatory system respectively as the internal and external monitoring mechanisms to deter corporate fraud and protect investors in line with the literature that state ownership exaggerates the agency problem we find that the retained state ownership in privatised firms increases the incidence of regulatory enforcements against fraud for the state owned enterprises soes however larger state ownership is associated with a lower incidence of enforcement actions this is attributed to the mutual political affiliation of the fraudulent soes and the regulatory commission a new regulation solutions for listed firm checks promulgated in march 2001 has mitigated this effect by empowering the regulatory commission to increase the severity of regulatory conditions our evidence confirms the improvement in the regulatory environment and investor protection in the chinese stock market brought about by the regulatory reform and development

political connections and the process of going public evidence from china abstract we examine how political connections impact the process of going public specifically we test how political connections impact the pricing of the newly offered shares the magnitude of underpricing and the fixed cost of going public based on the experience of the newly public firms from chinese security markets and using multiple measures of political connections we find robust evidence that the issuing firms with political connections reap significant preferential benefits in the process of going public to be specific we find that firms irrespective of their ownership status with greater political connections have relatively higher offering price lower underpricing and lower fixed costs during the going public process

institutional investors political connections and the incidence of regulatory enforcement against corporate fraud we investigate two under explored factors in mitigating the risk of corporate fraud and regulatory enforcement against fraud namely institutional investors and political connections the role of institutional investors in the effective monitoring of a firm s management is well established in the literature we further observe that firms that have a large proportion of their shares held by institutional investors have a lower incidence of enforcement actions against corporate fraud the importance of political connections for enterprises whether in a developed market such as the united states or an emerging market such as china has been established by previous studies however we find evidence of another positive effect of political connections they may reduce the incidence of enforcement action against corporate fraud we also find that political connections play a more significant role in reducing regulatory enforcement incidents against non state owned enterprises and firms in weaker legal environments whereas institutional ownership plays a more important role in reducing regulatory enforcement incidents against state owned enterprises

a european cross country comparison of the impact of homeownership and transaction costs on job tenure de graaff t and van leuvensteijn m a european cross country comparison of the impact of homeownership and transaction costs on job tenure regional studies this paper looks at the impacts across european countries of homeownership and transaction costs on job tenure the analysis is based on a representative household sample of fourteen european countries covering the period 1994 2001 these data are merged with country specific transaction tax data and aggregate homeownership rates similar to previous microeconomic studies the results indicate that homeownership reduces job mobility as well as the probability of becoming unemployed or economically inactive it is found however that this effect is severely mitigated by two factors first it decreases when aggregate homeownership rates are higher thus homeowners have larger job tenures but more so in countries with low homeownership rates second transaction costs on the housing market are positively associated with the probability of becoming

wildfire risk salience housing demand abstract in this paper we develop a parsimonious model that links underlying changes in location specific risk perceptions to housing market dynamics given estimates of both the price and quantity effects induced by shocks to agents beliefs the model allows us to draw inferences about the underlying changes in risk perceptions that gave rise to observed housing market dynamics we apply the model s predictions to an empirical analysis of the influence of severe wildfires on housing prices and sales rates in the front range of colorado interpreted in the context of the model our empirical results suggest that natural disasters lead to significant but short lived increases in risk perceptions

public offerings of state owned and privately owned enterprises an international comparison we compare initial offer prices in privatizations to initial prices in public offerings of private companies the evidence indicates that government officials in the united kingdom underprice ipos significantly more than their private company counterparts in canada and malaysia however the opposite is true there does not appear to be a general tendency for privatizations to be underpriced to a greater degree than private company ipos we provide additional evidence on the determinants of privatization initial returns our findings indicate that initial returns are significantly higher in relatively primitive capital markets and for privatized companies in regulated industries

a political economic model of u s bilateral trade a bstract interrelationships between economics and politics have long been recognized by scholars in the field of international relations this paper attempts to identify and quantify the factors aflecting bilateral trade flows between the united states and other countries by developing a gravity type model the model includes economic and political variables and is tested using data for sixty six u s trading partners results indicate that pure economic variables which reflect market forces are not the only factors affecting u s bilateral trade semi cconomic and international political factors are also important

the home selling problem theory and evidence this paper formulates and solves the problem of a homeowner who wants to sell their house for the maximum possible price net of transactions costs including real estate commissions the optimal selling strategy consists of an initial list price with subs equent weekly decisions on how much to adjust the list price until the home is sold or withdrawn from the market the solution also yields a sequence of reservation prices that determine whether the homeowner should accept bids from potential buyers who arrive stochastically over time with an expected arrival rate that is a decreasing function of the list price this model was developed to provide a theoretical explanation for list price dynamics and bargaining behavior observed for a sample of homeowners in england in a new data set introduced by

house price shocks negative equity and household consumption in the united kingdom we examine the impact of unanticipated housing capital gains on consumption behavior using data from the british household panel survey and county level house price data we condition the models on household financial expectations and on household real financial capital gains imputed from the family resources survey we find a marginal propensity to consume out of unanticipated shocks to housing wealth of 0 01 omitting the measure of financial expectations biases the results upward we find little evidence of heterogeneity in responses of young and old homeowners but differences between owners and renters we also find asymmetric behavior between house price rises and falls and a disproportionate impact on saving if the household had negative housing equity at the start of the period jel d91 e21 r31 c 2010 by the european economic association

nominal loss aversion housing equity constraints and household mobility evidence from the united states abstract this paper exploits the recent variation in us house prices to examine the effect of equity constraints and nominal loss aversion on household mobility detailed data from the 1985 1996 national longitudinal survey of youth nlsy79 were matched with house price data from 149 metropolitan areas to estimate instrumental variables linear probability and semi parametric proportional hazard models of intra metropolitan mobility household mobility is significantly influenced by nominal loss aversion there is little evidence that low equity because of fallen house prices constrains mobility

a more timely house price index using listings data we construct a new repeat sales house price index that describes house values at the contract date when the price is determined rather than the closing date when the property is transferred we showthat this difference in timing helps explain several puzzles about house prices including their strong short term serial correlation and their weak correlation with stock prices and macroeconomic news shocks in addition we showthat a variant of our index that relies exclusively on listings data for recent transactions accurately reveals trends in house prices several months before existing price indexes like case shiller become available