causalities between co2 electricity and other energy variables during phase i and phase ii of the eu ets the topic of this article is the analysis of the interplay between daily carbon electricity and gas price data with the european union emission trading system eu ets for co2 emissions in a first step we have performed granger causality tests for phase i of the eu ets january 2005 until december 2007 and the first year of phase ii of the eu ets 2008 the analysis includes both spot and forward markets given the close interactions between the two sets of markets the results show that during phase i coal and gas prices through the clean dark and spark spread impacted co2 futures prices which in return granger caused electricity prices during the first year of the phase ii the short run rent capture theory in which electricity prices granger cause co2 prices prevailed on the basis of the qualitative results of the granger causality tests we obtained the formulation testable equations for quantitative analysis standard ols regressions yielded statistically robust and theoretically coherent results

stochastic convergence in per capita fossil fuel consumption in u s states abstract this study examines the stochastic convergence of per capita fossil fuel consumption across u s states including the district of columbia utilizing lm and rals lm unit root tests with allowance for endogenously determined structural breaks our results indicate that with the exception of nevada the evidence from two break and one break lm and rals lm unit root tests rejects the null hypothesis of a unit root in the relative per capita fossil fuel consumption in the u s this finding indicates the presence of stochastic convergence in relative per capita fossil fuel consumption in the u s states

conditional convergence in australia s energy consumption at the sector level abstract we examine the convergence of energy consumption per capita at the sector level in australia over the period 1973 74 to 2013 14 to do so we employ recently developed lm and rals lm unit root tests that accommodate up to two endogenously determined structural breaks we find support for energy consumption per capita convergence for six of seven sectors in australia

growth and environmental quality testing the double convergence hypothesis abstract this paper discusses the double convergence hypothesis dch that the uncritical analysis of the so called environmental kuznets curve ekc implicitly implies according to the ekc empirical evidence would support the hypothesis that economic growth through a deterministic sequence of phases would produce cross country convergence in per capita output and as a by product convergence in the demand for environmental quality however factual analysis seems to reject the general hypothesis of convergence in per capita output limiting the validity of such an assessment to the case of homogeneous groups of countries this is why to test the dch the paper focuses on the original group of oecd countries for which the economic convergence turned out to be true this allows us to verify whether green and convergence follows as a consequence of economic convergence the paper also tests for a more equitable distribution of protection policies among countries unlike other studies which do not make the dch explicit and have focused on pollutant emissions this research explicitly tests for the double convergence using as a proxy for the demand for environmental quality the territory set aside for protected areas the results confirm that for the selected homogenous group of countries growth has accompanied the demand for environmental quality this happens both in terms of conditional and stochastic convergence

integration of carbon risks and opportunities in enterprise risk management systems evidence from australian firms this study addresses managerial perceptions of risks and opportunities related to carbon pricing and emission management and the factors that affect the extent to which carbon related risks and opportunities are integrated into the organisation s formal enterprise risk management erm system we assess the role played by internal governance features resource availability managerial perceptions on competitive pressures and industry type on the inclusion of carbon risks within the erm system based on survey responses from 96 senior managers in australian carbon intensive firms i e firms listed in the 2009 publication of data under section 24 of the national greenhouse and energy reporting nger act 2007 we find that the extent of carbon risk integration is positively associated with the existence of a formal carbon strategy senior management involvement internal audit oversight resource personnel and funds availability and energy sector membership the paper also provides several insights into the perceptions of risks and opportunities confronting an organisation as a result of carbon pricing mechanism

are shocks to ecological footprint in oecd countries permanent or temporary abstract the main goal of this study is to check the unit root properties of the ecological footprint and its six subcomponents cropland footprint grazing land footprint fishing grounds footprint forest land footprint built up land footprint and carbon footprint in 25 oecd the organisation for economic co operation and development countries during the period 1961 2013 this study uses a new stationarity test with sharp and smooth breaks in the panel setting developed by bahmani oskooee et al 2014 empirical findings demonstrate that the fishing grounds footprint does not have mean reverting behavior while the remaining ecological indicators display stationary properties under the assumption of both homogenous and heterogeneous long run variance therefore if policymakers decide to decrease the size of the fishing grounds footprint they will not face stiff resistance in addition to the panel results the univariate stationarity test results can also help policymakers in each country design effective emission reduction policies

stochastic divergence or convergence of per capita carbon dioxide emissions re examining the evidence this paper revisits the time series literature on the convergence of per capita carbon dioxide co2 emissions and examines the robustness of previous results using a sample of oecd countries for the period 1950 2002 we employ a battery of stationarity and unit root tests including those that allow for cross sectional dependencies within the panel we also correct for inaccuracies in previous studies that could result in a trend stationary series being labelled as converging even if it were actually diverging from the international average the body of evidence provided by our analysis suggests that per capita co2 emissions have not converged among oecd countries during the period under consideration this finding is of importance to both climate change policy makers and to those who construct climate change models

a comparison of var and cvar constraints on portfolio selection with the mean variance model in this paper we analyze the portfolio selection implications arising from imposing a value at risk var constraint on the mean variance model and compare them with those arising from the imposition of a conditional value at risk cvar constraint we show that for a given confidence level a cvar constraint is tighter than a var constraint if the cvar and var bounds coincide consequently a cvar constraint is more effective than a var constraint as a tool to control slightly risk averse agents but in the absence of a risk free security has a perverse effect in that it is more likely to force highly risk averse agents to select portfolios with larger standard deviations however when the cvar bound is appropriately larger than the var bound or when a risk free security is present a cvar constraint dominates a var constraint as a risk management tool

hedging crude oil using refined product a regime switching asymmetric dcc approach abstract in this paper we explore the strategy on hedging crude oil using refined product we develop a regime switching asymmetric dcc rs adcc model by taking into account both of regime switching and asymmetry in correlations our out of sample findings indicate that rs adcc displays greater hedging effectiveness than some conventional multivariate garch heating oil can better hedge crude oil than gasoline

convergence in per capita energy use among oecd countries abstract unlike previous studies which mainly focus on the integration properties of energy consumption and production this study examines the convergence of per capita energy use among 25 oecd countries over the period 1960 to 2010 in particular newly developed lm and rals lm unit root tests with allowance for two endogenously determined structural breaks are employed the results indicate significant support for per capita energy use convergence among oecd countries

futures hedging effectiveness under the segmentation of bear bull energy markets abstract this article undertakes eight hedging models regression md garch bekk garch ccc garch ecm md ecm bekk ecm ccc and state space models to investigate hedging effectiveness of different price scenarios in energy futures markets different models have systematically evidenced that hedging effectiveness is higher in an increasing pattern termed bull markets than in a decreasing pattern termed bear markets for crude oil and gasoline futures that is findings show asymmetric hedging performance between upward and downward price trends consistently from the most popular hedging models in literature out of sample examination also suggests that the ranking of hedging effectiveness of different hedging models is not parallel in different price patterns across futures contracts implying that investors should adjust their hedging strategies accordingly

club convergence in carbon dioxide emissions we examine convergence in carbon dioxide emissions among 128 countries for the period 1960 2003 by means of a new methodology introduced by phillips and sul econometrica 75 6 1771 1855 2007a contrary to previous studies our approach allows us to examine for evidence of club convergence i e identify groups of countries that converge to different equilibria our results suggest convergence in per capita co2 emissions among all the countries under scrutiny in the early years of our sample however there seem to be two separate convergence clubs in the recent era that converge to different steady states interestingly we also find evidence of transitioning between the two convergence clubs suggesting either a slow convergence between the two clubs or a tendency for some countries to move from one convergence club to the other

hedging strategy for ethanol processing with copula distributions it has become important for ethanol producers to hedge input and output price risks the purpose of this paper is to analyze an ethanol producing firm s strategy to reduce price risks for inputs and outputs corn is the primary input and the outputs are ethanol corn oil distillers dried grains ddgs and renewable identification numbers rins a theoretical model is developed including margins and risk is measured using value at risk var an empirical model is developed and extended to var using copulas to analyze the marginal distribution and dependence structure for input and output prices on margins efficient frontier curves analyzing var with and without copula are discussed the results compare varying risk strategy measures for long corn short corn and combining short and long corn sensitivity analyses are conducted for functional changes in the margin as a result of ethanol price changes

testing for convergence in carbon dioxide emissions using a bayesian robust structural model we address international convergence in carbon dioxide emissions per capita and per value added derived from emission inventories based on production and consumption patterns we propose a bayesian structural model that accounts for heteroscedasticity and endogeneity between emissions and economic growth and tests for the existence of group specific convergence via shrinkage priors we find evidence for country specific conditional convergence in all emission inventories implying a half life of 2 7 3 1 years for production based emissions and 3 6 4 7 years for consumption based emissions when testing for global convergence without allowing for individual specific convergence paths the half life of hbox co 2 per capita increases to 15 26 years whereas emission intensities show a half life of 44 45 years our results highlight the current incompatibility between emission targets and economic growth and the need for faster diffusion of green technologies moreover there is no evidence for specific convergence dynamics in the european union the oecd or the countries that are subject to binding emission constraints specified in the kyoto protocol the institutional frameworks implemented in industrialized countries did not induce faster convergence among developed economies

stoking the fires co2 emissions and economic growth abstract we examine the relationship between economic development and carbon dioxide emissions a greenhouse gas central to global warming predictions estimates derived from global panel data suggest a diminishing marginal propensity to emit mpe carbon dioxide as gdp per capita rises despite this global carbon dioxide emissions growth will continue at 1 8 percent per annum for the foreseeable future a result that is not sensitive to average output growth instead emissions growth continues because output and population will grow most rapidly in lower income nations with high mpes this latter feature emphasizes the distributional consequences of policies to reduce emissions

convergence in carbon dioxide emissions among industrialised countries revisited this paper examines the existence of stochastic and deterministic convergence of carbon dioxide co2 emissions in 23 countries over the period 1960 2002 for that purpose we conduct unit root testing by employing the recently developed panel stationarity test of carrion i silvestre et al carrion i silvestre j l del barrio castro t lopez bazo e 2005 breaking the panels an application to the gdp per capita econometrics journal 8 159 175 which assumes a highly flexible trend function by incorporating an unknown number of structural breaks we accommodate general forms of cross sectional dependence as well as control for finite sample bias through bootstrap methods overall our analysis provides strong evidence supporting both stochastic and deterministic convergence in co2 emissions thus confirming strazicich and list strazicich m c list j a 2003 are co2 emission levels converging among industrial countries environmental and resource economics 24 263 271 and westerlund and basher westerlund j basher s a 2007 testing for convergence in carbon dioxide emissions using a century of panel data environmental and resource economics forthcoming findings of convergence

value at risk estimation of energy commodities a long memory garch evt approach abstract in this paper we evaluate value at risk var and expected shortfall es for crude oil and gasoline market we adopt three long memory models including figarch hygarch and fiaparch to forecast energy commodity volatility by capturing some volatility stylized fact such as long range memory heteroscedasticity asymmetry and fat tails then we consider extreme value theory which concentrates on the tail distribution rather than the entire distribution evt is considered as a potential framework for the separate treatment of tails of distributions which allows for asymmetry our results show that the fiaparch model with extreme value theory performs better in predicting the one day ahead var using the fitted long memory garch model and a simulation approach to estimate var for horizons over than one day backtesting results show that our approach still performs for lower estimation frequencies overall our findings confirm that taking into account long range memory asymmetry and fat tails in the behavior of energy commodity prices returns combined with filtering process such as evt are important in improving risk management assessments and hedging strategies in the high volatile energy market

is there convergence in per capita renewable energy consumption across u s states evidence from lm and rals lm unit root tests with breaks abstract given the federal and state policy initiatives to curb fossil fuel consumption and expand the use of renewable energy sources in the u s this study investigates the convergence properties of per capita renewable energy consumption across u s states including the district of columbia in addition to cross sectional tests of and convergence our study employs lm and rals lm unit root tests with endogenously determined structural breaks to test for stochastic convergence traditional cross sectional tests indicate that both and convergence of per capita renewable energy consumption exists across u s states moreover our results also provides clear support for stochastic convergence of per capita renewable energy consumption for a majority of u s states including the district of columbia once allowance is made for structural breaks

carbon risk and optimal retrofitting in cement plants an application of stochastic modelling montecarlo simulation and real options analysis abstract the cement sector is highly intensive in co2 emissions and is the second biggest industrial sector in terms of emissions after the electricity generation sector it emits co2 from the combustion of fossil fuels the calcination process and indirectly from electricity consumption the ambitious climate change policy in the eu means that carbon prices and fuel prices are two very important sources of uncertainty that may affect the competitiveness of the sector this paper focuses on understanding the risk associated with the future price of european union emission trading system allowances this is done by modelling a stochastic process with parameters calculated using market prices risks are valued with the expected shortfall and value at risk measures over the lifetime of a plant using montecarlo simulation two well known risk measures in financial economics risks are greater and returns lower in the wet process than in the dry one the paper includes a sensitivity analysis of the effects arising from changes in the prices of allowances as a consequence of a hypothetical drastic change in climate policy including jumps withdrawing of free emission allowances and changes in future carbon prices in this case impacts will also be higher in the wet process finally the paper illustrates the optimal conditions for retrofitting a wet cement plant to convert it to a dry cement plant under uncertainty of the price of carbon allowances this is done using real options analysis the trigger price is 114 million for a plant with remaining lifetime of 25 years and a production of one million tonnes

have air pollutant emissions converged among u s regions evidence from unit root tests previous studies of income distribution have found evidence indicating that incomes across u s regions have converged supporting the prediction of the neoclassical growth model a potential shortcoming in these studies is that only one measure of well being is considered a measure of wealth linked to incomes or production this paper examines whether income convergence was accompanied by air pollutant emission convergence results from unit root tests provide some evidence that indicators of environmental quality have converged across u s regions during the 1929 1994 period

value at risk estimations of energy commodities via long memory asymmetry and fat tailed garch models abstract in this paper we evaluate the value at risk var and the expected shortfalls for some major crude oil and gas commodities for both short and long trading positions classical var estimations as well as riskmetrics and other extensions to cases considering for long range memory asymmetry and fat tail in energy markets volatility were conducted we computed the var for three arch garch type models including figarch fiaparch and hygarch these models were estimated in the presence of three alternative innovation s distributions normal student and skewed student our results show that considering for long range memory fat tails and asymmetry performs better in predicting a one day ahead var for both short and long trading positions moreover the fiaparch model outperforms the other models in the var s prediction these results present several potential implications for energy markets risk quantifications and hedging strategies

eco efficiency and convergence in oecd countries this paper assesses the convergence in eco efficiency of a group of 22 oecd countries over the period 1980 2008 in doing so three air pollutants representing the impact on the environment of economic activities are considered namely carbon dioxide text co 2 nitrogen oxides text no mathrm x and sulphur oxides text so mathrm x furthermore eco efficiency scores at both country and air pollutant specific level are computed using data envelopment analysis techniques then convergence is evaluated using the recent approach by phillips and sul econometrica 75 1771 1855 2007 which tests for the existence of convergence groups first we find that eco efficiency has improved over the period with the exception of text no mathrm x emissions second switzerland is the most eco efficient country followed by some scandinavian economies such as sweden iceland norway and denmark in contrast southern european countries such as portugal spain and greece in addition to hungary turkey canada and the united states are among the worst performers finally we find that both the most eco efficient countries and the worst tend to form clubs of convergence

engendering social capital women workers and rural urban networks in indonesia s crisis recent approaches to social capital have cautioned against the view that social networks are resources to be called upon in times of crisis we contribute a feminist perspective to this argument and call attention to the gendered power relations of social capital and social networks we draw on field studies that examine women migrants rural urban networks in two regions of indonesia during the 1997 99 economic crisis period our findings direct attention toward the gender specific limitations of social capital as a resource for development and identify some ways in which the costs and benefits of social capital are organized by gender

dynamic hedge ratio estimations in the european union emissions offset credit market following the introduction of the european union emissions trading scheme in 2005 the size of the carbon market has been growing at a tremendous rate to meet the emissions reduction targets the regulated parties can choose to participate in the allowance based market by purchasing the spot allowances commencing in 2008 the regulated parties are also allowed to purchase the offset credits to meet their allowance limit given the risky nature of the offset credits this paper evaluates the hedging performance of dynamic hedge ratios for the carbon offset credit certified emissions reduction market in the eu ets to the best of our knowledge this paper is the first attempt to evaluate the hedging performance of dynamic and constant hedge ratios in the carbon offset credit market based on the variance reduction and utility improvement measurements the findings generally support the use of static hedge ratios over the more sophisticated dynamic hedge ratios

divergence in state level per capita carbon dioxide emissions this paper addresses the question of whether income convergence is sufficient for per capita carbon dioxide co2 emissions convergence by focusing on a set of advanced economies the u s states i undertake a variety of cross sectional and stochastic convergence tests with two novel measures of 1960 to 1999 state level co2 emissions per capita production pre electricity trade co2 and consumption post electricity trade co2 and with income per capita although incomes continue to converge i find stark divergence in production co2 per capita and no evidence of convergence for consumption co2 per capita forecasts of future distributions show little convergence in emissions

markov switching garch models for bayesian hedging on energy futures markets abstract effective hedging strategies on oil spot and future markets are relevant in reducing price volatility for investors energy traders and companies operating in the oil markets a new bayesian multi chain markov switching garch model for dynamic hedging in energy futures markets is developed it builds on the construction of a system of simultaneous equations for the return dynamics on the hedged portfolio and the futures the implication of our model for portfolios allocation and energy trading are manyfold first our formulation allows for an easy identification of the different states of the discrete processes as volatility regimes secondly the use of regime switching models with multiple chains allows for an effective way to reduce risk furthermore correlated chains are more flexible than single chain models since they account for co movement in the volatility regimes of different markets thus they should be preferred in turbulent periods e g financial crisis finally the combination of the expected utility framework with the regime switching structure allows us to define a robust minimum variance hedging strategy changes in the optimal hedging strategies before and after the financial crisis are evidenced when the proposed robust hedging strategy is applied to crude oil spot and futures markets it is therefore recommended that many and different models should be used in place of a single one in energy risk hedging since they could perform differently in various phases of the market

causes of the eu ets price drop recession cdm renewable policies or a bit of everything new evidence the price of eu allowances euas in the eu emissions trading scheme eu ets fell from almost 30 tco2 in mid 2008 to less than 5 tco2 in mid 2013 the sharp and persistent price decline has sparked intense debates both in academia and among policy makers about the decisive allowance price drivers in this paper we examine whether and to what extent the eua price drop can be justified by three commonly identified explanatory factors the economic recession renewable policies and the use of international credits capitalizing on marginal abatement cost theory and a broadly extended data set we find that only variations in economic activity and the growth of wind and solar electricity production are robustly explaining eua price dynamics contrary to simulation based analyses our results point to moderate interaction effects between the overlapping eu ets and renewable policies the bottom line however is that 90 of the variations of eua price changes remains unexplained by the abatement related fundamentals together our findings do not support the widely held view that negative demand shocks are the main cause of the weak carbon price signal in view of the new evidence we evaluate the eu ets reform options which are currently discussed

a markov regime switching approach for hedging energy commodities abstract this paper estimates constant and dynamic hedge ratios in the new york mercantile exchange oil futures markets and examines their hedging performance we also introduce a markov regime switching vector error correction model with garch error structure this specification links the concept of disequilibrium with that of uncertainty as measured by the conditional second moments across high and low volatility regimes overall in and out of sample tests indicate that state dependent hedge ratios are able to provide significant reduction in portfolio risk

unconditional return disturbances a non parametric simulation approach abstract simulation methods are extensively used in asset pricing and risk management the most popular of these simulation approaches the monte carlo requires model selection and parameter estimation in addition these approaches can be extremely computer intensive historical simulation has been proposed as a non parametric alternative to monte carlo this approach is limited to the historical data available in this paper we propose an alternative historical simulation approach given a historical set of data we define a set of standardized disturbances and we generate alternative price paths by perturbing the first two moments of the original path or by reshuffling the disturbances this approach is either totally non parametric when constant volatility is assumed or semi parametric in presence of garch 1 1 volatility without a loss in accuracy it is shown to be much more powerful in terms of computer efficiency than the monte carlo approach it is also extremely simple to implement and can be an effective tool for the valuation of financial assets we apply this approach to simulate pay off values of options on the s p 500 stock index for the period 1982 2003 to verify that this technique works the common back testing approach was used the estimated values are insignificantly different from the actual s p 500 options payoff values for the observed period

a regime switching approach for hedging tanker shipping freight rates tanker shipping is the primary means for the transportation of petroleum and petroleum products around the world and thus plays a crucial role in the energy supply chain however the high volatility of tanker freight rates has been a major concern for market participants and led to the development of the tanker freight derivatives in the form of forward freight agreements ffas the aim of this paper is to investigate the performance of these instruments in managing tanker freight rate risk using a data set for six major tanker routes covering the period between 2005 and 2013 we examine the effectiveness of alternative hedging methods including a bivariate markov regime switching garch model in hedging tanker freight rates the regime switching garch specification links the concept of equilibrium freight rate determination underlying different market conditions and the dynamics of the conditional second moments across high and low volatility regimes overall we find evidence supporting the argument that the tanker freight market is characterized by different regimes however while the use of a regime switching model allows for a significant improvement in the performance of the hedge in sample out of sample results are mixed

are co2 emission levels converging among industrial countries time paths of carbon dioxide emissions intwenty one industrial countries are examinedfrom 1960 1997 to test for stochastic andconditional convergence both panel unit roottests and cross section regressions areperformed overall we find significantevidence that co2 emissions haveconverged

modeling and forecasting the volatility of carbon dioxide emission allowance prices a review and comparison of modern volatility models abstract the launch of the markets for carbon dioxide emission allowances was guided by the aim to use the supposedly efficient price formation mechanism of an organized exchange to optimally allocate a certain quantity of emissions among potential polluters while this introduction of a centralized trading arrangement should have helped to achieve required emission reductions with a minimum of economic losses from the viewpoint of market participants it has raised concerns about appropriate risk management provisions to cope with the fluctuations of time varying allowance prices the present review provides an overview over state of the art models for price volatility expanding the scope from relatively simple garch type models to models with long term dependence and regime switches including the relatively recent class of so called multifractal models we provide a comparative application of these models to carbon dioxide emission allowance prices from the european union emission trading scheme and evaluate their performance with up to date model comparison tests based on out of sample forecasts of future volatility and value at risk

eua and scer phase ii price drivers unveiling the reasons for the existence of the eua scer spread abstract this article studies the price relationships between eu emissions allowances euas valid under the eu emissions trading scheme eu ets and secondary certified emissions reductions scers established from primary cers generated through the kyoto protocol s clean development mechanism cdm given the price differences between euas and scers financial and industrial operators may benefit from arbitrage strategies by buying scers and selling euas i e selling the eua scer spread to cover their compliance position as industrial operators are allowed to use scers towards compliance with their emissions cap within the european system up to 13 4 our central results show that the spread is mainly driven by eua prices and market microstructure variables and less importantly as we would expect by emissions related fundamental drivers this might be justified by the fact that the eu ets remains the greatest source of cer demand to date

hedging emerging market stock prices with oil gold vix and bonds a comparison between dcc adcc and go garch while much research uses multivariate garch to model volatility dynamics and risk measures one particular type of multivariate garch model go garch has been underutilized this paper uses dcc adcc and go garch to model volatilities and conditional correlations between emerging market stock prices oil prices vix gold prices and bond prices a rolling window analysis is used to construct out of sample one step ahead forecasts of dynamic conditional correlations and optimal hedge ratios in most of the situations we study oil is the best asset to hedge emerging market stock prices hedge ratios from the adcc model are preferred most effective for hedging emerging market stock prices with oil vix or bonds hedge ratios estimated from the go garch are most effective for hedging emerging market stock prices with gold in some instances these results are reasonably robust to choice of model refits forecast length and distributional assumptions

greenhouse gases emissions growth and the energy mix in europe the importance of energy on greenhouse gases ghg emissions is reflected by the fact that 65 of said emissions in the world are currently due to the use and production of energy however most empirical emission models are found within the environmental kuznetz curve ekc framework which focuses on the relationship between emissions and economic development ang s 2007 2008 papers are some of the exceptions that simultaneously study the relationship between emissions growth and energy with respect to ang s research we contribute on two important aspects first while ang uses a particular country as the study and use time series techniques we take advantage of a panel data set of 24 european countries between 1990 and 2006 and use a dynamic panel data dpd framework second the impact of energy consumption on emissions would depend on the primary energy mix and on the final use of this energy and we consider both factors in the model

the minimum cvar strategy with semi parametric estimation in carbon market hedging problems abstract effective hedging strategies are important in reducing price volatility risk for business investors and companies participating into carbon markets in this paper we investigate the risk triggered by price fluctuation of european union allowance eua a semi parametric approach with cornish fisher expansion which approximates the quantile using the higher moments of the distribution is provided to estimate hedging ratios using cvar as risk objective function the approach can successfully capture the features of higher moments with the heavy tailed and higher kurtosis distribution of the eua returns which tends to be neglected the hedging performances of minimum cvar model we proposed and the conventional minimum variance model are evaluated and compared our empirical results show that minimum cvar hedging strategy generally outperforms the other in sample using all the effectiveness criteria while it is not consistent out of sample the proposed semi parametric minimum cvar strategy with cornish fisher expansion is advisable in carbon market hedging problems

global convergence in per capita co2 emissions national social science foundation of china 12zd059 ministry of education 10gbj013 new huadu business school research fund

energy risk management and value at risk modeling abstract the value of energy trades can change over time with market conditions and underlying price variables the rise of competition and deregulation in energy markets has led to relatively free energy markets that are characterized by high price shifts within oil markets the volatile oil price environment after opec agreements in the 1970s requires a risk quantification value at risk has become an essential tool for this end when quantifying market risk there are various methods for calculating value at risk the methods we introduced in this paper are historical simulation arma forecasting and variance covariance based on garch modeling approaches the results show that among various approaches the hsaf methodology presents more efficient results so that if the level of confidence is 99 the value at risk calculated through hsaf methodology is greater than actual price changes in almost 97 6 percent of the forecasting period

hedging strategies in energy markets the case of electricity retailers as market intermediaries electricity retailers buy electricity from the wholesale market or self generate for re sale on the retail market electricity retailers are uncertain about how much electricity their residential customers will use at any time of the day until they actually turn switches on while demand uncertainty is a common feature of all commodity markets retailers generally rely on storage to manage demand uncertainty on electricity markets retailers are exposed to joint quantity and price risk on an hourly basis given the physical singularity of electricity as a commodity in the literature on electricity markets few articles deal on intra day hedging portfolios to manage joint price and quantity risk whereas electricity markets are hourly markets the contributions of the article are twofold first we define through a var and cvar model optimal portfolios for specific hours 3 am 6 am 12 pm based on electricity market data from 2001 to 2011 for the french market we prove that the optimal hedging strategy differs depending on the cluster hour secondly we demonstrate the significantly superior efficiency of intra day hedging portfolios over daily therefore weekly and yearly portfolios over a decade 2001 2011 our results clearly show that the losses of an optimal daily portfolio are at least nine times higher than the losses of optimal intra day portfolios

risk spillovers across the energy and carbon markets and hedging strategies for carbon risk this study examines the risk spillovers between energy futures prices and europe based carbon futures contracts we use a markov regime switching dynamic correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity ms dcc garch model in order to capture the time variations and structural breaks in the spillovers we further evaluate the optimal weights hedging effectiveness and dynamic hedging strategies for the ms dcc garch model based on both the regime dependent and regime independent optimal hedge ratios we finally complement our analysis by examining the in and out of sample hedging performances for alternative strategies our results mainly show significant volatility and time varying risk transmission from energy markets to carbon market we also find that spot and futures segments of the emission markets exhibit time varying correlations and volatile hedging effectiveness the subsample estimates show significant changes in the hedge effectiveness over the different phases of the european carbon market these results have important investment and policy implications

investment under uncertain climate policy a practitioners perspective on carbon risk this paper introduces the concept of payment probability as an important component of carbon risk the financial risk associated with co2 emissions under uncertain climate policy in modeling power plant investment decisions most existing literature uses the expected carbon price e g the price of traded permits or carbon tax as a proxy for carbon risk in contrast this paper identifies expected carbon payment as a more accurate measure of carbon risk as perceived by industry practitioners this measure of carbon risk incorporates both expected price and the probability that this price would actually be faced in the case of a particular investment this concept helps explain both the surge of activity in 2005 2006 and the subsequent decline in interest in coal fired power plant development in the u s the data for this case study comes from an extensive online survey of 700 u s energy professionals completed in 2006 as well as interviews conducted with industry representatives from 2007 to 2009 by analyzing industry views on policy uncertainty and future carbon legislation we gain a better understanding of investor attitudes toward carbon risk this understanding will help policy makers design better incentives for investing in low carbon technologies

distribution dynamics of co2 emissions this paper uses nonparametric methods to examine the convergence in co2 emissions per capita on a sample of 100 countries for the period 1966 1996 industrial countries show a convergence pattern however there is little evidence of convergence for the whole sample

convergence of carbon dioxide performance across swedish industrial sectors an environmental index approach the overall objective of the paper is to analyze convergence of co2 emission intensity across manufacturing sectors in sweden our approach differs from previous work on carbon convergence in that

convergence of per capita sulphur dioxide emissions across us states this study examines the stochastic conditional convergence of sulphur dioxide so2 emissions using the residual augmented least squares lagrange multiplier rals lm unit root test with structural breaks this procedure allows the data to account for trend breaks and nonnormal errors that have been ignored or deemphasized in previous studies the study finds that per capita sulphur dioxide emissions exhibits stochastic conditional convergence across us states

are shocks to ecological balance permanent or temporary evidence from lm unit root tests abstract ecological balance can be described as the difference between ecological footprint and biocapacity it is an important indicator of sustainable and environmental development in this regard the current study aims to determine whether policies on ecological balance are effective in g7 and e7 countries covering the period of 1961 2016 to this end we use the lagrange multiplier lm unit root test lm unit root test with structural breaks and fourier lm unit root test as well as more powerful versions of these tests to investigate the stationarity of the ecological balance we also examine the effectiveness of policies regarding ecological footprint and biocapacity the empirical results obtained from both linear and non linear unit root tests show that ecological balance is stationary in germany italy japan the us china india indonesia mexico and turkey while it is non stationary in the remaining five countries however the findings based on the structural break unit root tests suggest that ecological balance is stationary in more countries finally the overall results indicate that shocks to the ecological balance in g7 countries have a more permanent effect than in e7 countries therefore g7 countries can better apply environmental protection policies than e7 countries can in the long term in brazil canada france russia and the uk environmental policies can be effectively implemented to regulate ecological balance

a utility based approach to energy hedging abstract a key issue in the estimation of energy hedges is the hedgers attitude towards risk which is encapsulated in the form of the hedgers utility function however the literature typically uses only one form of utility function such as the quadratic when estimating hedges this paper addresses this issue by estimating and applying energy market based risk aversion to commonly applied utility functions including log exponential and quadratic and we incorporate these in our hedging frameworks we find significant differences in the optimal hedge strategies based on the utility function chosen

optimal hedging in the us natural gas market the effect of maturity and cointegration abstract we use the us natural gas market as the rich experimental context to test multiple features of hedging performances first we compare the hedging effectiveness of a single futures contract i e henry hub used for hedging six different physical price positions second we examine the performance of hedging when one uses a futures contract with time to maturity beyond the hedging horizon i e a non matching hedging strategy finally we quantify the effect of accounting for cointegration and also the time varying volatility in the calculation of optimal hedge ratios as a robustness check we conduct our analysis using both ex ante out of sample and ex post in sample methods our findings suggest that using longer maturity contracts may improve the hedging effectiveness we also find that accounting for cointegration and time varying prices has minimal effect on the hedge ratio and hedging effectiveness for almost all physical prices our findings can inform businesses exposed to commodity price risks in on making better risk management decisions

coevolution of policy market and technical price risks in the eu ets within the eu there have been calls for governments to provide greater certainty over carbon prices even though it is evident that their price risk is not entirely due to policy uncertainty we develop a stochastic simulation model of price formation in the eu ets to analyse the coevolution of policy market and technology risks under different initiatives the current situation of a weak 20 overall abatement target motivates various technology support interventions elevating policy uncertainty as the major source of carbon price risk in contrast taking a firm decision to move to a more stringent 30 cap would leave the eu ets price formation driven much more by market forces than by policy risks this leads to considerations of how much risk mitigation by governments would be appropriate and how much should be taken as business risk by the market participants