animal spirits and credit cycles in this paper we extend the behavioral macroeconomic model as proposed by de grauwe 2012 to include a banking sector the behavioral model takes the view that agents have limited cognitive abilities as a result it is rational to use simple forecasting rules and to subject the use of these rules to a fitness test agents are then driven to select the rule that performs best the behavioral model produces endogenous and self fulfilling movements of optimism and pessimism animal spirits our main result is that the existence of banks intensifies these movements creating a greater scope for booms and busts thus banks do not create but amplify animal spirits we find that increases in the equity ratios of banks tend to reduce the importance of animal spirits over the business cycle the other policy conclusion we derive from our results is that the central bank has an important responsibility for stabilising output output stabilization is an instrument to tame the animal spirits this has the effect of improving the trade off between inflation and output volatility

arbitrage and the savings behavior of state governments the federal tax code creates strong incentives for tax arbitrage on the part of state governments this arbitrage activity is illegal and previous research has typically assumed that the constraint against arbitrage activity is binding this paper explicitly tests this proposition by considering whether financial asset holdings increase as the yield spread between taxable and tax exempt securities rises using a data set on 40 state governments over a seven year period i find that there is a significant response to changes in the yield spread one implication of these results is that the tax reform act of 1986 which made even greater efforts to curb arbitrage activity is likely to be ineffective copyright 1990 by mit press

pre reformation roots of the protestant ethic we hypothesize that cultural appreciation of hard work and thrift the protestant ethic according to max weber had a pre reformation origin the proximate source of these values was according to the proposed theory the catholic order of cistercians in support we rst document an impact from the order on growth within the epicenter of the industrial revolution english counties that were more exposed to cistercian monasteries experienced faster productivity growth from the 13th century onwards consistent with a cultural in uence this impact is also found after the monasteries were dissolved in the 1530s second we nd that the values emphasized by weber are relatively more pervasive in european regions where cistercian monasteries were located historically and that the legacy of the cistercians can be detected in present day employment rates across european sub regions

the political economy of churches in denmark 1300 2015 this paper reports new time series for the numbers and sizes of churches in denmark over a 715 year period per capita the new series are termed church densities a pattern emerges in the series that corresponds to the main development in the economy until 1750 the economy was in the traditional steady state where church densities were high and did not decline substantially modern development set in after 1750 since then church densities have declined more than five times moreover capacity utilization of church rooms has declined which means that the reduction in the demand for churches must have been even larger we argue that this large decline is caused by a fall in religiosity that is caused by economic development as measured by the rise in incomes in parallel with similar transitions in other sectors e g the agricultural transition it is termed the religious transition

common trends the government s budget constraint and revenue smoothing abstract the requirement that the government s budget be balanced in present value terms is shown to be equivalent to the condition that government expenditures inclusive of interest tax receipts and seignorage be cointegrated the condition is in fact stronger requiring that the deficit inclusive of interest be stationary stationarity of the net of interest deficit is neither necessary nor sufficient for intertemporal budget balance however it does have implications for barro s tax smoothing hypothesis data for the period 1890 1986 are consistent with intertemporal budget balance but not with tax smoothing

religiosity and earnings management international evidence from the banking industry using an international sample of banks we study how differences in religiosity across countries affect earnings management given that religiosity is a major source of morality and ethical behavior it may reduce excessive risk taking and act as deterrence for earnings manipulations therefore we predict lower earnings management in societies that have higher religiosity consistent with expectations our cross country analysis indicates that religiosity is negatively related to income increasing earnings management for loss avoidance and just meeting or beating prior year s earnings we also find that religiosity reduces income increasing earnings management through abnormal loan loss provisions in additional tests we document that religiosity increases the information value of bank earnings with both earnings persistence and cash flow predictability being enhanced by higher religiosity for the crisis period analysis i e 2007 2009 our evidence shows that banks in countries with higher religiosity exhibit lower probability of reporting asset deterioration and lower probability of having poor performance

retailer pricing strategy and consumer choice under price uncertainty this research examines how consumers choose retailers when they are uncertain about store prices prior to shopping simulating everyday choice participants made successive retailer choices where on each occasion they chose a retailer and only then learned product prices the results of a series of studies demonstrated that participants were more likely to choose a retailer that offered an everyday low pricing strategy edlp or that offered frequent small discounts over a retailer that offered infrequent large discounts this choice advantage for the retailer that was cheaper more often manifested even when its average price was judged to be higher the same results were obtained when choices were made a day apart when price feedback was only given for the chosen retailer and when price feedback was given for both retailers participant s expectations of future prices but not their judgments of retailer s past average prices predicted their subsequent retailer choice

political economy of agricultural policy in this article i focus on the findings from this study on the political economy of agricultural policy as they inform questions about the political economy of agricultural pricing primarily but not exclusively in developing countries to do so first i provide some background data on the comparative study i sketch the various stylized facts that were believed at the time and contrast them with the regularities that emerged from the comparative study finally i indicate some of the systematic empirical regularities and suggest the political economy conclusions which emerge from them

the u s evidence on optimal taxation over time abstract this paper considers a tax rule in which a uniform tax rate over time becomes optimal its implications are that 1 changes in the tax rate should arise only when there are changes in permanent government expenditures and 2 no variable other than permanent government expenditures should be of any value in predicting the tax rate these implications are tested using u s data for 1937 82 empirical results of the tests reveal that in addition to responding to permanent government expenditures the tax rate also responds to temporary defense purchases the general price level and a time trend

pattern based expectations international experimental evidence and applications in financial economics abstract we study how subjects extrapolate simple patterns in financial time series in order to develop a descriptive model of actual agent behavior the laboratory experiment for this analysis was conducted in germany and japan statistical analyses indicate considerable similarity in expectations formation across cultures and document that agents expectations are at variance with the notion of standard trend extrapolation the paper then proposes a method for computing expectations for any economic time series based on the experimental data such pattern based expectations are shown to explain stock prices and the dynamics of the forward discount on the foreign exchange market

does public insurance crowd out private insurance the cost of expanding public sector health programs depends critically on the extent to which public eligibility will cover just the uninsured or will crowd out existing private insurance coverage we estimate the extent of crowd out arising from the expansions of medicaid to pregnant women and children over the 1987 1992 period we estimate that approximately 50 percent of the increase in medicaid coverage was associated with a reduction in private insurance coverage this occurred largely because employees took up employer based insurance less frequently there is also some evidence that employers contributed less for insurance and that workers dropped coverage of dependents

beliefs about the determinants of success and employment protection abstract we show that part of the international variation in employment laws is due to different beliefs about the impact of hard work as opposed to luck and connections on success in societies where a greater proportion of people relate their life prospects to chance and connections stronger employment protection is in place the prevalence of such beliefs is likely to hamper labor market reforms

incentive effects of the u s welfare system a review the author would like to acknowledge support for prior work on this topic from the u s department of health and human services and helpful comments from three anonymous referees rebecca blank howard chernick john fitzgerald irwin garfinkel peter gottschalk edward gramlich david greenberg judith gueron james heckman v joseph hotz robert hutchens michael keane frank levy larry mead michael murray robert plotnick anuradha rangarajan philip robins howard rolston jeffrey smith and daniel weinberg all opinions and errors are those of the author alone

the medicaid notch labor supply and welfare participation evidence from eligibility expansions i assess the impact of losing public health insurance on labor market decisions of women by examining a series of medicaid eligibility expansions targeted toward young children these targeted expansions severed the historical tie between afdc and medicaid eligibility the reforms allowed a mother s earnings to increase without losing public health insurance for her young children increasing the income limit for medicaid resulted in a decrease in afdc participation and an increase in labor force participation among these women the effects were large for ever married women and negligible for never married women

not the opium of the people income and secularization in a panel of prussian counties the interplay between religion and the economy has occupied social scientists for a long time we construct a unique panel of income and protestant church attendance for 175 prussian counties in 1886 1911 the data reveal a marked decline in church attendance secularization coinciding with increasing income the cross section also shows a negative association between income and church attendance but the association disappears when using the panel structure in first differenced models of the 1886 1911 change counties with larger increases in income did not see significantly larger reductions in church attendance in panel models with county and time fixed effects counties with earlier increases in income than others did not see earlier reductions in church attendance and in panel granger causality tests initial income is not related to lower subsequent church attendance or vice versa these findings cast doubt on causal interpretations of the religion economy nexus during this important phase of secularization in prussia i concepts

trend definition or holding strategy what determines the profitability of candlestick charting abstract we ask what determines the profitability of candlestick trading strategies is it the definition of trend and or the holding strategy that one uses in candlestick charting analysis to answer this we systematically consider three definitions of trend and four holding strategies applying candlestick trading strategies to the djia component data we find that regardless of which definition of trend is used eight three day reversal patterns with a caginalp laurent holding strategy are profitable when we set the transaction cost at 0 5 and after we account for data snooping bias while the patterns with a marshall young rose holding strategy are not profitable for sensitivity analysis we also find that our results are not qualitatively changed on a lower transaction cost of 0 1 or when we conduct the subsample analyses based on three equal periods and three distinct market conditions when considering a more volatile market evidence in favor of candlestick trading strategies is strengthened

information characteristics and errors in expectations experimental evidence we design an experiment to test the hypothesis that in violation of bayes rule some people respond more forcefully to the strength of information than to its weight we provide incentives to motivate effort use naturally occurring information and control for risk attitude we find that the strength weight bias affects expectations but that its magnitude is significantly lower than originally reported controls for non linear utility further reduce the bias our results suggest that incentive compatibility and controls for risk attitude considerably affect inferences on errors in expectations

the effect of education on religion evidence from compulsory schooling laws abstract for over a century social scientists have debated how educational attainment impacts religious belief in this paper i use canadian compulsory schooling laws to identify the relationship between completed schooling and later religiosity i find that higher levels of education lead to lower levels of religious affiliation later in life an additional year of education leads to a 4 percentage point decline in the likelihood that an individual identifies with any religious tradition this is a reasonably large effect extrapolating the results to the broader population would suggest that increases in schooling could explain most of the large rise in non affiliation in canada in recent decades

instruments randomization and learning about development there is currently much debate about the effectiveness of foreign aid and about what kind of projects can engender economic development there is skepticism about the ability of econometric analysis to resolve these issues or of development agencies to learn from their own experience in response there is increasing use in development economics of randomized controlled trials rcts to accumulate credible knowledge of what works without overreliance on questionable theory or statistical methods when rcts are not possible the proponents of these methods advocate quasirandomization through instrumental variable iv techniques or natural experiments i argue that many of these applications are unlikely to recover quantities that are useful for policy or understanding two key issues are the misunderstanding of exogeneity and the handling of heterogeneity i illustrate from the literature on aid and growth actual randomization faces similar problems as does quasi randomization notwithstanding rhetoric to the contrary i argue that experiments have no special ability to produce more credible knowledge than other methods and that actual experiments are frequently subject to practical problems that undermine any claims to statistical or epistemic superiority i illustrate using prominent experiments in development and elsewhere as with iv methods rct based evaluation of projects without guidance from an understanding of underlying mechanisms is unlikely to lead to scientific progress in the understanding of economic development i welcome recent trends in development experimentation away from the evaluation of projects and toward the evaluation of theoretical mechanisms jel c21 f35 o19

federal taxation and the supply of state debt abstract this paper presents a model of debt finance at the sub national level from which municipal bond supply equations are derived federal tax considerations are shown to be important determinants of the price entering the bond supply equation using data on 40 state governments over a seven year period in the 1980s i show that federal tax rates have an important effect on the supply of municipal bonds independent of the demand side effect that is usually considered in the literature this has implications for the measurement of the tax expenditure associated with tax exempt debt

testing the positive theory of government finance researchers characterizing optimal tax policies for dynamic economies have reasoned that tax rates should follow a random walk we conduct a frequency domain examination of u s tax rates and reject the hypothesis that the first difference in the series is white noise the source of the rejection is pronounced activity of tax changes at an eight year cycle regression analysis confirms the finding that there is a cyclical component to tax changes corresponding to changes in political party administration the results suggest that the positive theory of government finance needs to be refined to incorporate features of political equilibrium

deficits government expenditures and tax smoothing in the united states 1929 1988 abstract barro s tax smoothing hypothesis tsh implies that the government runs a budget deficit whenever it anticipates the growth rate of national income to increase or the growth rate of its expenditure to decline we test this implication of the hypothesis by examining the implied cross equation restrictions on a vector autoregression var model using u s data for the period ranging from 1929 to 1988 our formal tests reject the hypothesis for the full sample period but cannot reject it for the post 1947 period further investigations show that the statistical rejection should be attributed to sharp differences in the statistical properties of the pre 1947 and the post 1947 data rather than the failure of the hypothesis itself

the transition of corruption from poverty to honesty measures of corruption and income are highly correlated across countries we use prehistoric measures of biogeography as instruments for modern income levels we find that our instrumented incomes explain the cross country pattern of corruption just as well as do actual incomes this result demonstrates that the long run causality is entirely from income to corruption hence there is a corruption transition as countries get rich corruption vanishes

a test of the theory of optimal taxation for the united states 1869 1989 a popular theory of optimal tax policies suggests that tax rates should follow a random walk this paper extends the existing empirical literature in three ways first the impact on the marginal utility of consumption when the government chooses a tax plan to smooth the distorting impact of taxes is considered second exogenous changes in the real rate of interest are incorporated into the government s optimal tax plan finally the tax elasticity of output is not constant over time allowing for these changes there is evidence that the government discounts the future attempts to smooth the distorting impact of taxes on the marginal utility of consumption and that the tax elasticity of output moves predictably during wars copyright 1993 by mit press

the flypaper effect what happens to a state s spending when it receives an unconditional grant from the federal government the standard theoretical analysis predicts that the increase in spending will be the same as that generated by an equivalent increase in local incomes or roughly 5 10 percent for most states in contrast numerous empirical analyses have found that spending increases by much more with some estimates near 100 percent this result is known as the flypaper effect since the money appears to stick where it hits the authors review this evidence as well as other studies that find similar behavior in firms

what s causing overreaction an experimental investigation of recency and the hot hand effect a substantial body of empirical literature provides evidence of overreaction in markets past losers outperform past winners in stock markets as well as in sports markets two hypotheses are consistent with this observation the recency hypothesis states that traders overweight recent information they are too optimistic about winners and too pessimistic about losers according to the hot hand hypothesis traders try to discover trends in the past record of a firm or a team and thereby overestimate the autocorrelation in the series an experimental design allows us to distinguish between these hypotheses the evidence is consistent with the hot hand hypothesis

u s deficits since world war i the tax smoothing theory suggests that deficits would respond particularly to recession temporarily high government spending and anticipated inflation my empirical estimates indicate that a relation of this type is reasonably stable in the u s since at least 1916 in particular the statistical evidence does not support the idea that there has been a shift toward a fiscal policy that generates either more real public debt on average or that generates larger deficits in response to recessions further the deficits for 1982 3 and popular projections formed in 1984 for 1984 5 are consistent with the previous structure the high values of these deficits reflect the customary response to substantial recession interacting with big government and to expected inflation

religion and work micro evidence from contemporary germany abstract using micro data from contemporary germany this paper studies the connection between protestantism and modern day labor market outcomes to address the endogeneity in self declared religion i exploit a provision in a sixteenth century peace treaty which determined the geographic distribution of catholics and protestants reduced form and instrumental variable estimates provide no evidence of an effect of protestantism on hourly wages however relative to their catholic counterparts protestants do appear to work longer hours the patterns in the data are difficult to reconcile with explanations based on institutional factors or religious differences in human capital acquisition religious differences in individuals values however can account for most of the estimated effects

predicting the next step of a random walk experimental evidence of regime shifting beliefs barberis et al j financial econ 49 1998 307 construct a model in which investors use the prevalence of past trend reversals as an indicator of the likelihood of future reversals while such regime shifting beliefs are consistent with a variety of psychological theories other contrary predictions are consistent with the same theories we report two experiments with mba student participants that strongly support the existence of regime shifting beliefs we conclude that regime shifting models can provide a useful framework for understanding market anomalies including underreactions to earnings changes and overreactions to longterm earnings trends r 2002 published by elsevier science b v

intertemporal tax smoothing and the government budget surplus canada and the united states this paper shows that if the government smooths taxes then the budget surplus should equal the present discounted value of expected changes in government expenditure this implication of the tax smoothing hypothesis imposes more stringent restrictions on the data than the more usual method of testing whether changes in tax rates follow a random walk the tax smoothing model is applied to the federal government budgets of canada and the united states and in each case receives considerable empirical support copyright 1995 by ohio state university press

fiscal news state budget rules and tax exempt bond yields abstract this paper investigates how state fiscal institutions such as balanced budget rules and restrictions on state debt issuance mediate the bond market reaction to state fiscal news we analyze data on the yields of bonds issued by different states as reported in the chubb relative value survey along with data on state budget forecasts for the period 1988 1998 we find that unexpected deficits are correlated with higher state bond yields this effect is smaller for states with tight antideficit rules than for states without these fiscal rules unexpected deficits have a particularly large effect in raising bond yields of states with tax limits these results suggest that bond market participants view fiscal institutions as relevant in assessing the risk characteristics of tax exempt bonds and that the economic significance of these institutions depends on the state s economic and fiscal circumstances

behavioral heterogeneity in u s inflation dynamics in this article we develop and estimate a behavioral model of inflation dynamics with heterogeneous firms in our stylized framework there are two groups of price setters fundamentalists and rando

budget spillovers and fiscal policy interdependence evidence from the states abstract this paper formalizes and tests the notion that states expenditures depend on the spending of similarly situated states we find that even after allowing for fixed state effects year effects and common random shocks among neighbors a state government s level of per capita expenditure is positively and significantly affected by the expenditure levels of its neighbors ceteris paribus a one dollar increase in a state s neighbors expenditures increases its own expenditure by over 70 cents

economic and security consequences of supreme values islamic societies have in contemporary times lagged western societies in income growth and human development indicators the supreme values of radical islam further de prioritize economic achievement and impose self deprivation on own populations this paper investigates the reasons for economic outcomes under islam contemporary illustrations are also provided of the self deprivation predicted from pursuit of the supreme value objectives of radical islam the self deprivation is placed in a rent seeking context

are state and provincial governments tax smoothing evidence from panel data the theory of debt examined here is known variously as efficient taxation over time optimal taxation over time the equilibrium approach to fiscal policy or tax smoothing tax smoothing results when an efficient government fixes tax rates today to minimize the costs of taxation over time given the long run constraint of a balanced budget if the marginal costs of taxation are an increasing function of the amount of resources taxed i e the tax rate then minimization of the total costs of taxation implies that the planned tax rate will be constant over time tax rate changes will be unpredictable and the tax rate will behave as a random walk efficient governments will not adjust tax rates to accommodate temporary changes in expenditures and revenues instead governments will minimize tax rate changes by tax smoothing smoothing tax rates implies that temporary changes in government spending and output result in deficits and surpluses therefore tax smoothing provides a theory of government debt the model is primarily due to barro 1 the goal of this paper is to contribute to our understanding of government debt the focus of this paper is on state and provincial debt or what is generally referred to as state and local debt nearly every state government in the united states has a balanced budget rule however balanced budget rules are not sufficient to rule out tax smoothing as state governments could build up budget surpluses in good times to smooth budgets over the business cycle if state governments are smoothing tax rates then their budget surpluses are endogenous contrary to the state governments provincial governments in canada have no balanced budget rules if provincial governments are smoothing tax rates it could explain the behavior of their budget deficits and surpluses as shown by barro tax smoothing implies that the overall tax rate behaves as a random walk and the tax rate would be a nonstationary time series with a unit root this study examines the tax smoothing hypothesis in two ways first the random walk implication is examined directly by testing the null hypothesis that the tax rate time series has a unit root second if the tax rate behaves as a random walk then changes in the tax rate should be unpredictable from past information if past information can predict tax rate changes this would provide evidence in favor of an alternative hypothesis a rejection of tax smoothing suggests that state and provincial tax rates respond to current

increasing financial inclusion in the muslim world evidence from an islamic finance marketing experiment low utilization of household credit in developing countries may be partially due to religious considerations in a randomized marketing experiment in jordan this paper estimates the effect of sharia compliant loan features on demand for credit to comply with islamic law the sharia compliant product uses a bank fee rather than an interest payment structure while keeping the rest of the product features very similar sharia compliance increased the application rate for loans from 18 percent to 22 percent an increase in demand that is equivalent to a 10 percent decrease in interest rates this study also randomly varied the price of the sharia compliant loan and finds that less religious individuals are twice as elastic with respect to price as the more religious by comparing reasons for refusal across treatment groups this paper estimates that survey measures that try to assess the importance of religious objections to conventional credit overestimate the importance of this type of objection by a third

religion religiosity and educational attainment evidence from the compulsory education system in england this paper investigates the effect of religion on the educational attainment of pupils in their final year of compulsory education in england the results show that pupils that identify with any re

values and marginal preferences in international business in a recent paper in this journal maseland and van hoorn argued that values surveys tend to conflate values and marginal preferences this assertion has been challenged by brewer and venaik who claim that the wording of most survey items does not suggest that these elicit marginal preferences this commentary responds to their claim and restates our original argument we stress that the distinction between values and marginal preferences is a conceptual rather than a semantic issue conflation of the two is a problem of stated preferences methods in general regardless of question formats what is more we argue that support for the marginal preferences interpretation of values survey data does not come from the specific wording of questions used in surveys but from a growing number of paradoxical relations between values ratings and outcomes in values research implications are twofold first we argue that in order to measure values we need to look at alternatives to the stated preferences approach such as revealed preferences and experienced preferences of which the latter seems most promising second we find that values surveys eliciting marginal preferences are useful for understanding and predicting differences in behavior in a given context

economic literacy and inflation expectations evidence from a laboratory experiment we present experimental evidence of a link between economic literacy and inflation forecast accuracy the experiment investigates two channels through which economic literacy may enable better forecasts i choice of information and ii use of information more literate subjects choose more relevant information and use the given information more effectively starting from a 10th percentile score the boost in literacy from taking an economics course predicts a 0 64 standard deviation decline in mean absolute forecasting error our findings suggest that a significant portion of demographic heterogeneity in inflation expectations observed in survey data may be driven by heterogeneity in economic literacy

optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital abstract this paper is concerned with the structure and time consistency of optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital in a dynamic context optimal taxation means distributing tax distortions over time in a welfare maximizing way for a barter economy our main finding is that with debt commitments of sufficiently rich maturity structure an optimal policy if one exists is time consistent in a monetary economy the idea of optimal taxation must be broadened to include an inflation tax and we find that time consistency does not carry over an optimal inflation tax requires commitment by rules in a sense that has no counterpart in the dynamic theory of ordinary excise taxes the reason time consistency fails in a monetary economy is that nominal assets should from a welfare maximizing point of view always be taxed away via an immediate inflation in a kind of capital levy this emerges as a new possibility when money is introduced into an economy without capital

time varying arbitrage and dynamic price discovery abstract we introduce time varying measures of price discovery based on underlying profit maximizing behavior by combining the heterogeneous agent modelling literature with the market microstructure literature we set up a heterogeneous agent model with arbitrageurs and trend chasers chartists and allow agents to switch between the strategies conditional on recent forecasting performance estimation of the model on canadian us cross listed stocks on high frequency data shows that there is significant heterogeneity and switching causing ample variation in the information processing capacity of markets

the intergenerational transmission of risk and trust attitudes recent theories endogenize the attitude endowments of individuals assuming that they are shaped by the attitudes of parents and other role models this paper tests empirically for the relevance of three aspects of the attitude transmission process highlighted in this theoretical literature 1 transmission of attitudes from parents to children 2 an impact of prevailing attitudes in the local environment on child attitudes and 3 positive assortative mating of parents which enhances the ability of a parent to pass on his or her attitudes to the child we focus on two fundamentally important attitudes willingness to take risks and willingness to trust others we find empirical support for all three aspects providing an empirical underpinning for the literature an investigation of underlying mechanisms shows that socialization is important in the transmission process various parental characteristics and aspects of family structure are found to strengthen the socialization process with implications for modeling the socialization production function and for policies focused on affecting children s non cognitive skills the paper also provides evidence that the transmission of risk and trust attitudes affects a wide variety of child outcomes implying a potentially large total effect on children s economic situation

on the origins of gender roles women and the plough the study examines the historical origins of existing cross cultural differences in beliefs and values regarding the appropriate role of women in society we test the hypothesis that traditional agricultural practices influenced the historical gender division of labor and the evolution of gender norms we find that consistent with existing hypotheses the descendants of societies that traditionally practiced plough agriculture today have less equal gender norms measured using reported gender role attitudes and female participation in the workplace politics and entrepreneurial activities our results hold looking across countries across districts within countries and across ethnicities within districts to test for the importance of cultural persistence we examine the children of immigrants living in europe and the united states we find that even among these individuals all born and raised in the same country those with a heritage of traditional plough use exhibit less equal beliefs about gender roles today jel codes d03 j16 n30 copyright 2013 oxford university press

the size of human capital externalities cross country evidence human capital accumulation is usually held to generate positive externalities however the empirical evidence on human capital externalities has been scarce and inconclusive the missing evidence appears to be caused by misleading comparisons between private and social rates of return by incorrect interpretations of regression coefficients or by an inappropriate level of aggregation our own estimates point to relatively robust empirical evidence for a human capital externality that is about twice as large as a benchmark estimate which is derived from a standard parameterization of a simple growth model we ponder a possible causal link from human capital to social capital in the context of alternative views of long run development and argue that the grand transition view paldam 2002 is compatible with the existence of a large human capital externality

the religious transition a long run perspective we use factor analysis to derive a robust measure of religiosity from items reported in five waves of the world value survey our measure of religiosity is negatively correlated with per capita income development apparently causes religiosity to fall to about half its pre modern level most components of the demand for religion are reduced by development the supply of religion declines once churches lose control over the institutions providing collective goods like education health and social security these goods used to be supplied by churches jointly with religious services but tend to be supplied by the state with rising levels of development aspects of supply and demand are integrated in a ces production function framework that can explain the direction of causality in the observed negative correlation between income and religiosity

government spending interest rates prices and budget deficits in the united kingdom 1701 1918 abstract the british data from the early 1700s through wwi provide an unmatched opportunity for studying temporary changes in government purchases temporary increases which appeared mainly as wartime spending raised long term interest rates but significantly increased the growth rates of money and prices only during suspensions of the gold standard 1797 1821 and 1914 1918 temporary changes in military spending accounted for the bulk of budget deficits over the sample of more than 200 years i found only two major non war deficits one associated with compensation payments to slaveowners in 1835 1936 and the other with a dispute over the income tax in 1909 1910 interest rates did not react much to these exogenous deficits

religion and economy religion has a two way interaction with political economy with religion viewed as a dependent variable a central question is how economic development and political institutions affect religious participation and beliefs with religion viewed as an independent variable a key issue is how religiosity affects individual characteristics such as work ethic honesty and thrift and thereby influences economic performance in this paper we sketch previous studies of this two way interaction but focus on our ongoing quantitative research with international data

elections and aggregation interpreting econometric analyses of local governments this paper analyzes the provision of local government service under the assumption that fiscal policy is set by local officials in order to maximize the expected number of votes in the next election the model includes both the widely used median voter model and the average voter model as special cases further it is a convenient framework for empirical analyses numerical simulations indicate that the vote maximization model is capable of producing levels of government spending either greater or less than those predicted by the median voter model while exhibiting similar responses to changes in incomes grants prices etc thus the model captures the advantages of the median voter model without its objectionable features many avenues for further work remain i will mention briefly only a few of the most obvious the first is to make housing prices endogenously determined within the model in this way one could examine the role of both fiscal incentives capitalization and political incentives votes in the determination of optimal policies a second extension is to introduce explicitly the possibility of a mobile population and examine in the spirit of tiebout 1956 the effects of voting with your feet within the vote maximization framework the possibilities include both setting policies that de facto concede exit of some fraction of the current residents and or setting policies to attract new residents with particular characteristics another extension is to look at decisions over time despite widespread agreement upon the usefulness of the life cycle model of private consumption the median voter is essentially static it seems a minimal extension to include both government and private consumption in an intertemporal framework unfortunately the median voter may change over time making implementation of the median voter model problematic at best in practice intertemporal issues are important emphasizing the absence of an acceptable framework it is often suggested that elected officials will choose inappropriate intertemporal fiscal policies in response to the short run focus of the electoral process for example it appears plausible that officials will borrow in order to finance higher levels of spending and or lower taxes in the present because future residents are not present to vote against these policies the electoral process produces incorrect incentives in the same way this line of reasoning suggests that officials will undertake too little infrastructure investments because the benefits accrue to future residents one countervailing force is the effects of property capitalization to the extent that the local housing market correctly capitalizes future taxes and services into housing values current residents will be affected by inefficient policies and may use the electoral process to provide correct signals to officials there is another possibility as well to the extent that current officials recognize that inefficient current policies reduce the probability of future re election they have an incentive even in the absence of perfect capitalization to adopt intertemporally appropriate tax and spending policies intuitively the official must care about re election what if the particular individual chooses not to run for office again then to the extent that political parties or machines cause the individual to value the election of his successor i e to the extent that political legacies are important the adopted policies may satisfy the conditions for intertemporal efficiency the vote maximization approach provides a framework in which to analyze these issues lastly one could extend the model to situations in which officials care not only about election but also about the policies themselves this provides not only a different tradeoff between the tastes of the public and private sector but also a natural incentive for officials to seek re election

do credit markets discipline sovereign borrowers evidence from u s states the degree to which credit markets discipline sovereign borrowers is investigated by estimating the supply curve for debt faced by u s states the results generally support an optimistic view of the market discipline hypothesis with credit markets providing incentives for sovereign borrowers to restrain borrowing while the risk premium on bond yields is estimated to increase only gradually at low levels of debt this effect appears to become much larger as debt rises there is also some evidence that credit markets may withhold access to credit at very high levels of debt copyright 1995 by ohio state university press

identifying the causal effect of income on religiosity using the earned income tax credit abstract how do economic conditions income and the generosity of social insurance affect religious behavior this paper provides novel evidence for the united states using variation in earned income tax credit benefits across states over time and by number of children in the raw data income and religiosity have a trivial relationship in contrast the instrumental variables strategy shows that increases in income from the eitc are found to sizably reduce religious attendance among low income individuals among individuals who attend the results indicate that an additional 1000 in annual income is associated with a decrease of roughly 1 service per year as compared to an average of 16 services per year the effect arises mainly along the intensive margin decreasing devout behavior and increasing more marginal attendance but having little impact on whether an individual participates at all or on beliefs there are also minimal effects on the occurrence and amount of contributions to religious organizations the results extend our understanding of the determinants of religiosity the relationship between governmental income support and religious behavior and the social effects of the earned income tax credit

religiosity and income a panel cointegration and causality analysis abstractin this article we examine the long run relationship between religiosity and income using retrospective data on church attendance rates for a panel of countries from 1930 to 1990 we employ panel cointegration and causality techniques to control for omitted variable and endogeneity bias and test for the direction of causality we show that there exists a negative long run relationship between the level of religiosity measured by church attendance and the level of income measured by the log of gdp per capita the result is robust to alternative estimation methods potential outliers different samples different measures of church attendance and alternative specifications of the income variable long run causality runs in both directions higher income leads to declining religiosity and declining religiosity leads to higher income

can one day candlestick patterns be profitable on the 30 component stocks of the djia abstractwe set out in this study to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the profitability of every possible 1 day candlestick pattern using data on the 30 component stocks of the dow jones industrial average index our study involves a very lengthy sample period running from january 1974 to december 2009 with the results revealing a noticeable increase in the predictive power of 1 day candlestick patterns from 1992 onwards our evidence shows that several of the patterns may well prove to be profitable for the dow jones industrial average stocks the robustness of our results is subsequently confirmed based upon a bootstrap analysis

the bicausal relation between religion and income in this article the relation between religion and income is investigated using a micro dataset for the netherlands religion is measured by religious membership and by participation instead of estimating a religion equation and an income equation separately joint regression is preferred since this generally yields more efficient estimates following the single equation approach both religious measures are found to decrease income significantly and income is found to affect religion negatively however these cross effects become insignificant once the equations are estimated simultaneously in contrast the effects of socio economic characteristics on religion and income hardly differ between the approaches

why did the netherlands develop so early the legacy of the brethren of the common life this research establishes a link between the brethren of the common life bcl a religious community founded by geert groote in deventer in the late fourteenth century and the early economic development of the netherlands the bcl stimulated human capital accumulation the historical analyses show that the bcl contributed to the high rates of literacy to the high level of book production and to city growth in the netherlands these findings are supported by a set of ols regressions and further corroborated by 2sls estimates that use distance from deventer as an instrument for the presence of the bcl

secularization and long run economic growth in a consumer culture the consumer not christ is king skye jethani i introduction this paper proposes a novel theory of identity choice and endogenous economic growth in which secularization is both cause and consequence of successful economic development it contributes to the literature on the fundamentals of economic growth acemoglu 2009 by proposing a theory of how culture driven by economic change may change rapidly and where cultural change in turn drives further economic development the core idea is that through abandoning their religious identity their strife for salvation from the dire situation on earth individuals are able to derive more pleasure from material possessions and consumption activities the prospect of pleasure in this world motivates them to work harder and save more for future consumption increasing labor supply and capital accumulation induces technological progress and income growth which entices further individuals to abandon religion in order to derive more pleasure from material possessions which motivates them to supply more labor and capital etc through this feedback loop the economy takes off when religiosity declines and industrialization is observed in conjunction with secularization following the literature i define religious as believing in a god or a group of gods and following the rules of a religion mckendrick brewer and plumb 1982 although the proposed theory is perhaps more general the paper focuses on economic and religious developments of the western world which means it focuses on christian beliefs i define as the core creed of christian religion that through belief in and acceptance of the death and resurrection of jesus christ sinful humans can be reconciled with god and thereby are offered salvation and the promise of eternal life metzger and coogan 1993 the christian church is the agent specialized in promoting the desire for these immaterial heavenly values and goals ekelund et al 1997 i define as religious identity the self identification with christian religious values in section ii i argue that individuals identify with either immaterial self transcendence values religion or with material self enhancement values materialism i argue that individuals using individual possessions or consumption activities as identity fixers have chosen a secular materialistic identity i define as secularization the decline in the social significance of religion manifested by the decline in the number of religious people individuals identifying with religion measured by declining church attendance bruce 2011 most scholars of religion agree that for christians church attendance is a good measure of religiosity brierley 1999 bruce 2011 warner 2010 attending the sunday service was obligatory for protestants of most denominations as well as for members of the anglican church and deliberate failure to attend sunday mass is still considered to be a grave sin according to catholic canon law in the economists language church attendance is a revealed preference because church is the only place where sins can be forgiven not attending shows a loss of interest in salvation and eternal life the main goods offered by the church attendance is strongly but not perfectly correlated with adherence in particular attendance declines before membership declines bruce 2011 moreover there exists a temporary phase of fuzzy fidelity in which many individuals claim that while religion is not important in their life they continue to consider themselves christians and occasionally appear in church voas 2008 this temporary state is not explicitly taken into account in the theory below but considered to be best described by a secular identity as industrialization secularization is a general phenomenon observed throughout the western world the first data point however is only observed in 1851 for england when church attendance was about 60 brierley 1999

introduction to the economics of religion after a very long hiatus economists have begun again to study the relationship between economics and religion this article seeks to summarize and evaluate the principal themes and empirical findings that have appeared in some 200 recent papers on the economics of religion although some of the research concerns the economic consequences of religiosity most applies standard economic theory to the study of individual religious activity the characteristics of religious groups and the impact of regulation and competition on religious markets

the bull of wall street experimental analysis of testosterone and asset trading growing evidence shows that biological factors affect individual financial decisions that could be reflected in financial markets testosterone a chemical messenger especially influential in male

the multidimensional effects of religion on socioeconomic development a review of the empirical literature religion plays a fundamental role in most people s lives with profound implications for socioeconomic development this survey provides a comprehensive and systematic overview of the causal mechanisms between religion and development discussed and tested in the economics literature and reviews quantitative empirical evidence on the actual effects of religion on economic and social dimensions of development we start by disaggregating the concept of religion into four religious dimensions and propose a framework to conceptualize causal mechanisms numerous mechanisms are possible but only a few uncontested findings exist religion is ambivalent vis a vis development although religious ideas can foster certain forms of human capital acquisition and labor market participation scholars have found a negative relationship between religious dimensions and both income and gender equality as well as innovation activities religious identity is also a source of labor market discrimination and has ambivalent effects on economic growth and social cohesion methodological challenges refer to the availability of fine grained data especially for developing countries the use of concepts and definitions and the lack of causal inference

the market impact of trends and sequences in performance new evidence bloomfield and hales 2002 find strong evidence that experimental market subjects are influenced by trends and patterns in a manner supportive of the shifting regimes model of barberis shleifer and vishny 1998 we subject the model to further empirical scrutiny using the football wagering market as our price laboratory sports betting markets have several advantages over traditional capital markets as an empirical setting and commonalities with traditional markets allow for useful insights we find scant evidence that investors behave in accordance with the model barberis s hleifer and vishny 1998 develop a model of investor sentiment that is consistent with two pervasive empirical anomalies that have been the focus of much research in finance momentum in returns and reversals in returns 1 the model is motivated by evidence documented by cognitive psychologists on two systematic biases that arise when people form beliefs namely conservatism and representativeness 2 these biases are captured in a regimeshifting framework in which the earnings process follows a random walk but investors hold the flawed belief that the process switches between a reversal regime in which earnings changes tend to reverse themselves in sign and a continuation regime in which earnings changes are followed by changes of the same sign a key feature of the model is that investors look at the frequency of past performance reversals to determine which regime currently governs performance a recent paper by bloomfield and hales 2002 reports results of laboratory experiments with mba student participants which support the existence of

which countries have state religions among 188 countries 72 had no state religion in 2000 1970 and 1900 58 had a state religion throughout and 58 had 1 or 2 transitions we use a hotelling spatial competition model to analyze the likelihood that the religion market would be monopolized similar forces influence a government s decision to establish a state religion consistent with the model the probability of state religion in 1970 and 2000 is increasing with the adherence rate to the main religion has a nonlinear relation with population and has little relation with per capita gdp the probability of state religion decreases sharply under communism but lagged communism has only a weak effect with costly adjustment for institutions the probability of state religion in 1970 or 2000 depends substantially on the status in 1900 this persistence is much stronger for countries with no major regime change than for countries with such a change

investor expectations earnings management and asset prices abstract this paper examines the implications of investor expectations for the joint determination of earnings manipulation and asset prices three alternative models of investor expectations are studied constant gain learning regime shifting beliefs and accounting information system ais beliefs i use the simulated method of moments smm to estimate the most plausible model that matches the actual data ais beliefs and regime shifting beliefs are shown to best explain the empirical moments of 63 and 32 of s p 500 firms respectively regression analysis suggests that the three models offer different predictions on the existence and magnitude of several empirical regularities including a positive earnings response coefficient the discretionary accruals anomaly and return momentum

modelling house price volatility states in the uk by switching arch models this article analyses investment risk in the housing market by examining volatility properties of house prices for the uk we use both arch and garch models to estimate price conditional heteroscedasticity and find evidence of a time varying property in the volatilities of the house price series we then use the swarch model and find there are three volatility states in the price series our estimations suggest the uk housing markets are relatively stable and different states do not switch very often the magnitude of high price volatility is as high as 20 99 times of the low volatility for the older housing market and 14 times of the low volatility for the new housing market in addition the older housing market is less efficient than the new housing market since the impacts of events on the volatility state of the older house prices is more lasting than in new housing market

inflation targeting recursive inattentiveness and heterogeneous beliefs in this paper we consider a scenario in which the monetary authority provides an explicit in ation target in order to anchor private sector expectations and align them with policy objectives in this context a biased perception of the target may arise due to imperfect information ows and idiosyncrasies in information processing lead to heterogenous beliefs about the target we allow private sector expectations to be revised over time as new information becomes available and the direction of change is determined by the distance between agents beliefs and actual realizations of macro variables the recursive choice between alternative predictors is modeled as an optimization problem under rational inattention within this framework we investigate whether a simple interest rate rule can steer the economy toward the targeted equilibrium our ndings suggest that standard policy advices i e ensure determinacy under rational expectations may not be sucient to reach the target instead a sound monetary policy should be ne tuned to ensure that the signal sent by realizations of macro variables can correct biased agents beliefs

explaining dispersion in foreign exchange expectations a heterogeneous agent approach this paper combines survey forecasts with a heterogeneous agent model to examine the dispersion of expectations of participants in the foreign exchange market we find distinct variations in the level of dispersion and document that dispersion arises because of the combined effect of market participants holding private information and attaching different weights to fundamental technical and carry trade analyses we estimate a heterogeneous agent model on the survey forecasts and show that the weight attached to the three forecast rules is adjusted over time in response to the relative importance of the rules in the actual foreign exchange market the weights are related to market circumstances the switching model is finally shown to outperform the random walk model in an out of sample forecast exercise

do women supply more public goods than men preliminary experimental evidence from matrilineal and patriarchal societies francine d blau cornell university janet m currie columbia university charles a holt university of virginia steffen andersen porcelaeenshaven 16 a 1 dk 2000 frederiksberg tel 45 3815 2591 fax 45 3815 2576 e mail sa eco cbs dk erwin bulte warandelaan 2 5037 ab tilburg the netherlands tel 31 13 466 2707 erwin bulte wur nl uri gneezy otterson hall room 4s136 9500 gilman dr 0553 la jolla ca 92093 0553 phone 858 534 4312 fax 858 534 0745 ugneezy ucsd edu john a list corresponding author 1126 east 59

individual reaction to past performance sequences evidence from a real marketplace we use novel data on individual activity in a sports betting market to study the effect of past performance sequences on individual behavior in a real market the idiosyncratic nature of risk in this market and the revelation of assets true terminal values enables us to disentangle whether behavior is caused by sentiment or by superior information about market mispricings and to cleanly test two prominent theories of momentum and reversals the regime shifting model of barberis et al barberis n shleifer a vishny r 1998 a model of investor sentiment j financial econom 49 3 307 343 and the gambler s hot hand fallacy model of rabin rabin m 2002 inference by believers in the law of small numbers quart j econom 117 3 775 816 furthermore our long panel enables us to study the prevalence across individuals of each type of behavior we find that i three quarters of individuals exhibit trend chasing behavior ii seven times as many individuals exhibit behavior consistent with barberis et

an empirical examination of heterogeneity and switching in foreign exchange markets using a unique dataset of survey expectations this paper examines the extent to which the classical fundamentalist chartist dichotomy is valid for the foreign exchange market by applying a recursive selection algorithm 1 respondents are classified into the two groups and 2 the forecasting models are endogenously determined within the groups a large part of the variation in expectations can be explained by the fundamentalist chartist distinction switching however takes place between a naive and a sophisticated model that consists of both fundamentalist and chartist elements the sophisticated model is increasingly used as the forecast horizon increases

losers winners and biased trades when faced with sequential information consumers tend to fall prey to one of two well known heuristics the hot or cold hand and the gambler s fallacy the authors relate these two traditionally separate heuristics to differences in accepting buy versus rejecting sell decisions they identify trend length as a contextual moderating variable and show an asymmetry between buying and selling frames when applied to a stock market context a consistent finding is that consumers prefer to buy past winners and sell past losers even when neither should be preferred this behavior violates the normative rule of buy low and sell high

from farmers to merchants conversions and diaspora human capital and jewish history from the end of the second century ce judaism enforced a religious norm requiring fathers to educate their sons we present evidence supporting our thesis that this change had a major influence on jewish economic and demographic history first the high individual and community cost of educating children in subsistence farming economies 2nd to 7th centuries prompted voluntary conversions of jews that account for a share of the reduction from 4 5 to 1 2 million second the jewish farmers who invested in education gained the comparative advantage and incentive to enter skilled occupations during the urbanization in the abbasid empire in the near east 8th and 9th centuries and they did select themselves into these occupations third as merchants the jews invested even more in education a precondition for the mailing network and common court system that endowed them with trading skills demanded all over the world fourth the jews generated a voluntary diaspora within the muslim empire and later to western europe fifth the majority of world jewry lived in the near east when the mongol invasions in the 1250s brought this region back to a subsistence farming economy in which many jews found it difficult to enforce the religious norm and hence converted as it had happened centuries earlier jel j1 j2 n3 o1 z12 z13

stabilisation policy rational expectations and price level versus inflation targeting a survey we survey literature comparing inflation targeting it and price level targeting pt as macroeconomic stabilisation policies our focus is on new keynesian models and areas that have seen significant developments since ambler s 2009 price level targeting and stabilisation policy a survey journal of economic surveys 23 5 974 997 survey optimal monetary policy the zero lower bound financial frictions and transition costs of adopting a pt regime ambler s conclusion that pt improves social welfare in new keynesian models is fairly robust but we note an interesting split in the literature pt consistently outperforms it in models where policymakers commit to simple taylor type rules but results in favour of pt when policymakers minimise loss functions are overturned with small deviations from the baseline model since the beneficial effects of pt appear to hang on the joint assumption that agents are rational and the economy new keynesian we discuss survey and experimental evidence on rational expectations and the applied macro literature on the empirical performance of new keynesian models overall the evidence is not clear cut but we note that new keynesian models can pass formal statistical tests against macro data and that models with rational expectations outperform those with behavioural expectations i e heuristics in direct statistical tests we therefore argue that policymakers should continue to pay attention to pt

religion and earnings is it good to be an atheist with religious parental background abstract using german employee data we find that being raised by two religious parents and having no current religious affiliation is associated with higher earnings this conforms to the hypothesis that people who are raised religiously and reject religion as adults are economically more successful as they combine a strong internalized work ethic with an increased interest in present consumption as opposed to afterlife consumption

the spirits of capitalism and socialism the world values survey contains an item on ownership which is polled 200 times in 92 countries at the four waves of 1990 1995 2000 and 2005 these polls are developed into the cs score that measures the aggregate mass support for capitalism and socialism four hypotheses are advanced and tested to explain the wide variation in the 200 cs scores it is due to the cross country distribution of income and consequently the west stands out as the most capitalist minded area of the world institutions of the country such as legal quality the left right dimension in politics and cultural differences

health insurance eligibility utilization of medical care and child health two economists applied data from the current population survey and the national health interview survey and state level data on child mortality to a simulation model of utilization of medical care that varies only with the states legislative environment to examine the utilization of medical care and health effects of medicaid eligibility on low income children the models took into consideration the recent expansions of medicaid to low income children 38 of those ineligible for medicaid in 1984 who became eligible due to changes during 1984 1992 were uninsured between 1984 and 1992 expansions of the medicaid program increased the proportion of children eligible for medicaid almost two fold 16 1 vs 31 2 yet coverage rates were always lower than eligibility rates 13 2 vs 16 1 in 1984 and 20 3 vs 31 2 in 1992 and the increase in coverage rates was only about 50 of the increase in eligibility rates during 1984 1992 the probability that a child was eligible for medicaid increased the probability of health insurance coverage by 29 77 when the model considered bias in variables e g a recession in a state the take up rate was only 22 73 nevertheless medicaid markedly increased use of medical care for example eligibility for medicaid increased the likelihood of making a visit to a physicians office in the last two weeks by about 50 it also increased the probability of a child visiting the hospital suggesting inefficiency in the way that providers deliver care to medicaid enrollees medicaid eligibility had a significant effect on reducing child mortality the 15 1 percentage point increase in eligibility during 1984 1992 reduced child mortality by 4 5 when the researchers examined parent assessed subjective health measures medicaid eligibility had no effect on child health medicaid eligibility reduced race and education based disparities in the number of visits and racial differences in mortality yet it may actually intensify current disparities in health care delivery site

u s states the medicaid program and tax smoothing this paper tests the tax smoothing theory by focusing on its implication that a change in permanent government spending should result in an equal sized change in the tax rate the effect of medicaid a state administered federal and state funded medical insurance program for the poor on state tax rates is investigated the medicaid program provides a natural experiment for this test as states are required to cover certain groups in order to receive federal matching money additionally during the 1980s a series of federal mandates greatly increased state medicaid expenditures two stage least squares is used on a panel of u s states 1978 1994 to test whether changes in permanent state medicaid expenditures resulted in equal sized tax rate changes tax smoothing as a positive theory of state government behavior is rejected additionally it is found that this rejection cannot be attributed to the stringency of balanced budget rules