some nonlinear tax effects on asset values and investment decisions under uncertainty abstract tax system nonlinearities are often ignored but with uncertainty may have important implications for the magnitude and direction of tax effects this paper studies a particular nonlinear tax rule the policy subsidizes asset values but may discourage some investments and encourage earlier shutdown of some projects the marginal effective tax rate varies with project risk furthermore a corporate cash flow tax can encourage investment due to interactions with the nonlinear policy the paper also presents a general statement of the stochastic equilibrium valuation method which can be used to analyze other nonlinear taxes numerical examples demonstrate computational feasibility

s based taxation under default risk abstract this article studies the characteristics of a s based tax system under default risk in particular we show that its neutrality properties depend on whether debt is protected or unprotected in the former case this system is neutral in the latter case where default timing is optimally chosen by shareholders the s based system is neutral with respect to real decisions only if the firm s and the lender s tax rate are equal however the shareholders decision to default is always distorted

the effect of market segmentation with demand leakage between market segments on a firm s price and inventory decisions abstract in this paper we address the simultaneous determination of price and inventory replenishment in a newsvendor setting when the firm faces demand from two or more market segments in which the firm can set different prices we allow for demand leakage from higher priced segments to lower priced segments and assume that unsatisfied demand can be backlogged we examine the case where the demands occur concurrently without priority and are met from a single inventory we consider customer s buy down behavior explicitly by modeling demand leakage as a function of segment price differentiation and characterize the structure of optimal inventory and pricing policies

pricing and the news vendor problem a review with extensions in the newsvendor problem a decision maker facing random demand for a perishable product decides how much of it to stock for a single selling period this simple problem with its intuitively appealing solution is a crucial building block of stochastic inventory theory which comprises a vast literature focusing on operational efficiency typically in this literature market parameters such as demand and selling price are exogenous however incorporating these factors into the mode l can provide an excellent vehicle for examining how operational problems interact with marketing issues to influence decision making at the firm level in this paper we examine an extension of the newsvendor problem in which stocking quantity and selling price are set simultaneously we provide a comprehensive review that synthesizes existing results for the single period problem and develop additional results to enrich the existing knowledge base we also review and develop insight into a dynamic inventory extension of this problem and motivate the applicability of such models

optimal fences and joint price and inventory decisions in distinct markets with demand leakage abstract this paper evaluates the simultaneous determination of price and inventory replenishment when a firm faces demand from distinct market segments a firm utilizes fences such as advance or nonrefundable payment to maintain separation of its market segments however fences are imperfect and allow a degree of demand leakage from the higher priced to the lower priced market segment we investigate the optimal structure of joint price and inventory decisions with fencing and demonstrate that more segments is not necessarily better especially when demand uncertainty is high in the presence of lost sales we also show the impact of imperfect fences on the firm s profitability and evaluate how fencing costs affect the optimal fencing decision

joint optimal determination of process mean production quantity pricing and market segmentation with demand leakage abstract the selection of an optimal process mean is an important problem in production planning and quality control research most of the previous studies in the field have analyzed the problem for a fixed exogenous price however in many realistic situations besides product quality product pricing is a paramount factor that determines the purchase behavior in the market in the experts opinion an integrated framework that incorporates pricing as a decision tool could significantly improve a firm s profitability most of the manufacturing firms yield products with distinguishable characteristics and therefore it is desirable to sell these products on the market at differentiated prices whereas the market segmentation achieved using differentiated prices is often imperfect a firm may experience demand leakages thus an optimal price decision must incorporate demand leakage effects for the firm to benefit from its differentiated pricing strategy in this paper these issues are addressed by proposing an optimal framework for joint determination of process mean pricing production quantity and market segmentation using differentiated pricing this research discusses a production process that manufactures multi class grade products based on their quality attribute the products are sold in primary and secondary market at differentiated prices while experiencing demand leakages the nonconforming items are reworked at an additional cost mathematical models are developed to address the problem under both price dependent deterministic and stochastic demand situations we propose a harmony search meta heuristic for solving the models a numerical experimentation is presented to study the significance of the proposed integrated decision framework

dollar vs percentage markup pricing schemes under a dominant retailer abstract we investigate two very common pricing schemes for a stackelberg dominant retailer percentage markup and dollar markup we show that when a dominant retailer switches from dollar to percentage markup the channel s overall pie and the retailer s pie piece are both enlarged in contrast the manufacturer will be forced to levy a lower wholesale price thus receiving a smaller pie piece despite the larger pie the preceding statements hold regardless of whether the demand is deterministic or stochastic however the effects of switching to percentage markup on the retail price and sales volume will depend not only on whether the demand is stochastic but also on the assumed demand curve shape and on whether demand stochasticity is additive or multiplicative besides presenting a comprehensive set of answers on the comparative performance of dollar and percentagemarkups our results also highlight the often overlooked importance of choosing between i dollar and percentage markup and ii the formats of the assumed stochasticity and demand curves

consensus building on the fomc an analysis of end of tenure policy preferences abstract we document a behavioral idiosyncrasy in which federal reserve bank presidents prefer tighter monetary policy at the end of their tenures this suggests that consensus building on the federal open market committee occurs by moderating the policy preferences expressed by the presidents rather than convincing them the consensus policy is superior

would a risk averse newsvendor order less at a higher selling price we model a risk averse newsvendor s decision making behavior with some commonly used classes of utility functions within the expected utility theory eut framework under fairly general conditions of eut we show that a risk averse newsvendor will order less than an arbitrarily small quantity as selling price gets larger if price is higher than a threshold value i e the optimal order quantity decreases as the selling price increases

real investment options with multiple sources of rare events abstract we value real investment options when the underlying asset follows a mixed jump diffusion process involving various types sources of rare events jumps these jumps are assumed independent of each other with each type having a log normally distributed jump size and a random poisson distributed arrival time they may represent uncertainties about the arrival and impact on the underlying investment of new information concerning technological innovation competition political risk regulatory effects and other sources an analytic solution is presented for european claims call or put options with multiple sources of jumps a discrete time markov chain methodology implemented within a finite difference scheme is proposed for the valuation of american as well as european options the approach is also applicable to financial options with multiple types of rare events the approach is illustrated through valuing complex real options with compound features involving interactions between optimal investment and subsequent operating decisions specifically we value a growth option and an extension option

a multi item newsvendor problem with preseason production and capacitated reactive production abstract given items with short life cycles or seasonal demands one can potentially improve profits by producing during the selling season especially when its production capacity is substantial we develop a two stage multi item model incorporating reactive production that employs a firm s internal capacity production occurs in an uncapacitated preseason stage and a capacitated reactive stage demands occur in the reactive stage reactive capacities are pre allocated to each item in the preseason stage and cannot be changed during the reactive stage reactive production occurs during the selling season with full knowledge of demands the objective is expected profit maximization unsatisfied demand is lost the revenue salvage value and production and lost sales costs are proportional assuming no fixed costs we present a simple algorithm for computing optimal policies for a model with fixed costs for allocating preseason stage production and reactive stage capacity to product families we characterize optimal policies and develop optimal and heuristic algorithms

the valuation of multiple claim insurance contracts this paper provides a closed form solution for the value of a multiple claim insurance contract that is subject to a deductible amount and or an upper limit on claims the solution is a time integral of european option prices the model provides three important insights first systematic risk in insurance policies is altered in the presence of deductibles and maximum indemnity levels second idiosyncratic risk affects policy valuation and the required rates of return on underwriting portfolios finally contrary to traditional actuarial intuition changes in the risk free interest rate may either increase or reduce policy values

multi stage product development with exploration value enhancing preemptive and innovation options abstract we provide a real options framework for the analysis of product development that incorporates research and exploration actions product attribute value enhancing actions with uncertain outcome as well as preemption and innovation options we derive two stage analytic formulas and propose a general multi period solution using a numerical lattice approach our analysis reveals that exploration actions are more important when the project is out or at the money near zero npv and less important for high project values in a multi stage setting exploration actions are important even for in the money projects when follow on actions exist that can enhance the expected value of the project with path dependency early actions are more valuable since they enhance the impact or reduce the cost of subsequent actions preemptive controls affecting rare event jump frequency and innovations that introduce positive jumps are more valuable for firms with higher frequency of competitive threats involving low volatility

a supply chain model with direct and retail channels abstract we study a dual channel supply chain in which a manufacturer sells to a retailer as well as to consumers directly consumers choose the purchase channel based on price and service qualities the manufacturer decides the price of the direct channel and the retailer decides both price and order quantity we develop conditions under which the manufacturer and the retailer share the market in equilibrium we show that the difference in marginal costs of the two channels plays an important role in determining the existence of dual channels in equilibrium we also show that demand variability has a major influence on the equilibrium prices and on the manufacturer s motivation for opening a direct channel in the case that the manufacturer and the retailer coordinate and follow a centralized decision maker we show that adding a direct channel will increase the overall profit our numerical results show that an increase in retailer s service quality may increase the manufacturer s profit in dual channel and a larger range of consumer service sensitivity may benefit both parties in the dual channel our results suggest that the manufacturer is likely to be better off in the dual channel than in the single channel when the retailer s marginal cost is high and the wholesale price consumer valuation and the demand variability are low

capabilities as real options strategy research consists of a balance between positive and normative theory normative theories suggest particular heuristics or cognitive representations to find appropriate solutions heuristics permit faster solutions to real time problems they also suffer from the potential of negative transfer to inappropriate applications the theory of real options provides the appropriate heuristic framing of competencies and exploratory search a real options approach marries the theory of financial options to foundational ideas in strategy organizational theory and complex systems we join these approaches to identify three pairs of concepts scarce factor and the underlying asset in option theory inertia and irreversibility and the ruggedness of landscape and option values strategic theories of resources largely define a core competence as unique and nonimmutable in doing so this definition has wrongly forgotten barney s initial insight into scarce factor markets as determining the valuation of a competitive asset financial theory of real options derives its heuristics of investing in exploratory search by inferring future value of today s investments from market prices we apply the three conceptual pairs to the evaluation of capabilities as real options through a formal descriptive model the valuation of core capabilities is derived from observing the price dynamics of correlated strategic factors in the market because of inertia managers cannot easily adjust the wrong set of organizational capabilities to the emergence of market opportunities however firms that have made investments in capabilities appropriate to these opportunities are able to respond from this description we define core competence as the choice of capabilities that permits the firm to make the best response to market opportunities the heuristic framing of capabilities as real options guides the normative evaluation of the balance between exploitation and exploration

the newsvendor problem with an in season price adjustment consider a retailer stocking a seasonal item facing a stochastic demand where information about the demand becomes more accurate as the selling season progresses the retailer places orders before the start of the season and in season reorders are not possible this article extends the classical newsvendor model by allowing the retailer to make an in season price adjustment after conducting a review and using the realized demand to obtain an accurate estimate of the remaining demand our results include answers to the following questions what price should the retailer choose how much should the retailer have ordered at the start of the season given the option of adjusting prices in season this model was motivated by a problem in car rental revenue management and has applications in perishable assets revenue management parm where price adjustments are needed towards the end of the selling season

revenue management under a general discrete choice model of consumer behavior customer choice behavior such as buy up and buy down is an important phenomenon in a wide range of revenue management contexts yet most revenue management methodologies ignore this phenomenon or at best approximate it in a heuristic way in this paper we provide an exact and quite general analysis of this problem specifically we analyze a single leg reserve management problem in which the buyers choice behavior is modeled explicitly the choice model is very general simply specifying the probability of purchase for each fare product as a function of the set of fare products offered the control problem is to decide which subset of fare products to offer at each point in time we show that the optimal policy for this problem has a quite simple form namely it consists of identifying an ordered family of efficient subsets s 1 s m and at each point in time opening one of these sets s k where the optimal index k is increasing in the remaining capacity x and decreasing in the remaining time that is the more capacity or less time available the further the optimal set is along this sequence we also show that the optimal policy is a nested allocation policy if and only if the sequence of efficient sets is nested that is s 1 s 2 s m moreover we give a characterization of when nesting by fare order is optimal we also develop an estimation procedure for this setting based on the expectation maximization em method that jointly estimates arrival rates and choice model parameters when no purchase outcomes are unobservable numerical results are given to illustrate both the model and estimation procedure

option pricing when the underlying asset earns a below equilibrium rate of return a note in their classic paper black and scholes 2 present two derivations of the european call option pricing formula the first which we will refer to as the replication derivation relies on the fact that the returns from the option can be replicated by holding a continuously revised position in the underlying asset and bonds this implies that if an option is not priced according to the blackscholes formula there is a sure profit to be made by some combination of either short or long sales of the option and underlying asset this argument is seemingly independent of considerations relating to capital market equilibrium the second derivation which we will call the equilibrium derivation evolves from the requirement that the option earn an expected rate of return commensurate with the risk involved in holding the option as an asset this note considers the pricing of a call option on an asset which earns an expected rate of return lower than that necessary to induce investors to hold it we show in this case that even if the replication strategy is feasible it is inefficient a consequence of this is that the correct option pricing formula is different than the black scholes formula unlike the black scholes formula our formula requires as an input the difference between the expected rate of return on the underlying asset and that expected rate of return which would be required to induce holding of the asset other papers have made a similar point constantinides 3 and cox et al 4 have argued that in equilibrium the prices of traded contingent claims must satisfy a partial differential equation which is identical to the black scholes partial differential equation only when the underlying asset pays no dividends and earns a rate of return sufficient to induce holding of the asset more recently ingersoll 5 has noted that commodities often pay a nonpecuniary service yield the value of which must be taken into account in deriving the option price none of these authors however explain why the black scholes formula is sometimes inappropriate the purpose of this note is to demonstrate why the black scholes formula needs modification even if replication is feasible we provide an intuitive derivation of the correct formula and discuss why divergences of the equilibrium price from the black scholes formula do not result in arbitrage opportunities

valuation and management of fishing resources under price uncertainty the traditional expected net present value methods cannot properly capture the management flexibility and strategic value aspects of a fishery and may understate its value instead this paper develops a real options model to conceptualize and evaluate fishery exploitation flexibility specifically general models to value the opportunity to either exploit or invest in a fishery are presented they suffice to determine not only these values but also the optimal policy for opening closing delaying and setting its harvest rate the sustainable case in which the harvest rate equals the natural net growth function is also considered concerning the exploitation decision it is found that as could be expected the higher the resource price the higher the value of this opportunity in both models general and sustainable however the resource stock affects both models differently as to the investment opportunity its value is always lower than the exploitation opportunity because of investment costs finally numerical simulations are run in order to illustrate the nature of the solution sensitivity analysis concerning the influence of the tax rate convenience yield risk free interest rate and price volatility on the value of the fishery is also reported

the learning curve and optimal production under uncertainty this article examines the implications of the learning curve in a world of uncertainty we consider a competitive firm whose costs decline with cumulative output because the price of the firm s output evolves stochastically future production and cumulative output are unknown and are contingent on future prices and costs we derive an optimal decision rule that maximizes the firm s market value produce when the price exceeds a critical level which is a declining function of cumulative output we show how the shadow value of cumulative production the total value of the firm and the decision to produce depend on the volatility of the price and other parameters uncertainty increases the critical price required for the firm to produce but also increases the value of thefirm thus during periods of high volatility firms facing a learning curve ought to be producing less but are worth more

an integrated revenue management framework for a firm s greening pricing and inventory decisions abstract there is a growing interest on developing efficient ways of incorporating environmental considerations into business practices in order to meet both consumers demand for green products services and the firms sustainable profitability the main contribution of this article is in developing an integrated revenue management framework to address a firm s greening investment effort pricing and inventory decisions it is assumed that the firm inaugurates a green product along with its existing product even though the firm offers both the green and regular product at differentiated prices the market segmentation as a result of this price differentiation is regarded as imperfect this imperfect market segmentation causes a demand leakage mainly due to the heterogeneity among the customers willingness to pay these effects are included in our proposed model and simplified analytical solutions are developed to solve the same additional scenarios where a firm experiences a price dependent stochastic demand with an unknown distribution is also modeled this scenario is addressed using a distribution free approach based on scarf s rule the performance of the proposed methods and the significance of the modeling framework are finally corroborated through several simulations this analysis provides a sustainable environment production and retailing framework while still augmenting profitability using fundamental tools from revenue management

selling to the newsvendor with a forecast update analysis of a dual purchase contract we consider a supply chain in which a manufacturer sells to a procure to stock retailer facing a newsvendor problem with a forecast update under a wholesale price contract the retailer waits as long as she can and optimally places her order after observing the forecast update we show that the retailer s wait and decide strategy induced by the wholesale price contract hinders the manufacturer s ability to 1 set the wholesale price and maximize his profit 2 hedge against excess inventory risk and 3 reduce his profit uncertainty to mitigate the adverse effect of wholesale price contract we propose the dual purchase contract through which the manufacturer provides a discount for orders placed before the forecast update we characterize how and when a dual purchase contract creates strict pareto improvement over a wholesale price contract to do so we establish the retailer s optimal ordering policy and the manufacturer s optimal pricing and production policies we show how the dual purchase contract reduces profit variability and how it can be used as a risk hedging tool for a risk averse manufacturer through a numerical study we provide additional managerial insights and show for example that market uncertainty is a key factor that defines when the dual purchase contract provides strict pareto improvement over the wholesale price contract

the impact of assets in place on corporate financing and investment decisions abstract in a dynamic setting with asymmetric information we consider firms debt equity choice and investment timing we extend recent research by adding an abandonment option and assets in place and we show that these extensions make debt more attractive this implies e g that mature firms with larger assets in place mainly use debt financing whereas young high growth firms without assets in place frequently use equity financing and signal their type by early investment simulation analyses confirm this and our model is thus able to explain empirical patterns which contradict the static pecking order theory

quotas as options valuation and equilibrium implications abstract this paper presents formulae for the values of quota licenses in stochastic environments that are based on observable parameters and examines the impact of parameter changes on domestic equilibrium we show that the option pricing methodology currently used widely in the finance literature may be applied to the valuation of licenses in a potentially wide range of market environments

petroleum taxation under uncertainty contingent claims analysis with an application to norway abstract contingent claims analysis provides a useful tool for analysing the value of tax claims and of companies after tax values under uncertainty the method is presented and applied to the analysis of how norwegian petroleum taxes affect company behaviour few results can be derived analytically a numerical approach is suggested with a stylized description of production possibilities the norwegian taxes are found to have strong distortionary effects the relation to other methods and problems connected with the application are discussed

debt policy and the rate of return premium to leverage equilibrium in the market for real assets requires that the price of those assets be bid up to reflect the tax shields they can offer to levered firms thus there must be an equality between the market values of real assets and the values of optimally levered firms the standard measure of the advantage to leverage compares the values of levered and unlevered assets and can be misleading and difficult to interpret we show that a meaningful measure of the advantage to debt is the extra rate of return net of a market premium for bankruptcy risk earned by a levered firm relative to an otherwise identical unlevered firm we construct an option valuation model to calculate such a measure and present extensive simulation results we use this model to compute optimal debt maturities show how this approach can be used for capital budgeting and discuss its implications for the comparison of bankruptcy costs versus tax shields

investment decisions in hog finishing an application of the real options approach in this paper option pricing theory is applied to an investment problem in hog production a stochastic simulation model capable of pricing american type options is developed this is achieved by recursive calculation of the exercise frontier the model is used to determine the investment trigger and the disinvestment trigger for a pig fattening barn under german market conditions it turns out that the investment trigger taking into account the value of waiting in an uncertain environment can be considerably higher compared to classical investment criteria such as the net present value this offers an explanation as to why farmers are indeed reluctant to invest in hog production another finding is the sensitivity of the option prices with respect to the stochastic process that is assumed for revenues and variable costs of the production activity

a risk tolerance analysis for a joint price differentiation and inventory decisions problem with demand leakage effect abstract price differentiation is a commonly used practice in revenue management rm to improve a firm s profitability however most studies in the literature have considered a risk neutral firm to demonstrate the benefits of price differentiation the main contribution of this paper is in considering several important objectives while determining the optimal product prices and order production quantities for a risk adjusted firm with demand leakage effects in the presence of a price dependent stochastic demand the objectives considered include the maximization of a firm s expected profit and maximizing the probability of exceeding the risk adjusted expected revenue closed form expressions for optimal product prices and production quantities are derived for several of these objectives a numerical study is also presented to calibrate the impact of a firm s risk tolerance and other factors such as demand leakage market demand variability on the firm s profitability and its optimal decision

the relation between forward prices and futures prices abstract this paper consolidates the results of some recent work on the relation between forward prices and futures prices it develops a number of propositions characterizing the two prices these propositions contain several testable implications about the difference between forward and futures prices many of the propositions show that equilibrium forward and futures prices are equal to the values of particular assets even though they are not in themselves asset prices the paper then illustrates these results in the context of two valuation models and discusses the effects of taxes and other institutional factors

an integrated approach to price differentiation and inventory decisions with demand leakage abstract price differentiation is among widely practiced tools in revenue management rm in which a seller offers same or slightly different products or services at different prices to its customers earlier research studies have shown that the benefits from price differentiation are evident when the market segmentation is assumed to be perfect in a perfect market segmentation customers associated with a market segment do not move between market segments however it is not uncommon to observe that a market segmentation a firm operates in is seldom prefect and due to imperfect segmentation customers move between market segments which is also referred to as demand leakage in addition the firms predominantly experience stochastic demand and thus a firm experiences both the short sales and leftovers due to demand uncertainty this research proposes a model to address the issue of an optimal market segmentation using price differentiation as a tool we also establish an integrated framework for pricing order and production quantity allocation decisions in each market segment when a firm experiences demand leakage from one market segment to another and faces price dependent stochastic demand the model is analyzed to determine an optimal decision framework on pricing order quantity allocation and market segmentation using the proposed price differentiation due to the complexity of the problem both the hierarchical and joint optimization approaches are developed a simplified closed form optimal solution to the problem is outlined in the case of hierarchical approach the model is also analyzed for a situation in which the distribution of the price dependent stochastic demand is unknown and a distribution free approach is utilized to address the problem it is identified that the use of distribution free approach also results in a closed form optimal solution to the problem a numerical study is presented to demonstrate the performance of the model and solution approaches the benefits of the optimal market segmentation using a differentiation price are also highlighted along with the proposed integrated optimal decision framework when a firm experiences demand leakage