international control of subsidies and countervailing duties the range and number of cases of administered protection in the 1 980s suggests that it has begun to play an important role in shaping international trade flows as most of such cases are brought by the united states against developing country exporters they are also a matter of concern for developing countries in the uruguay round of trade negotiations the internationally negotiated code on subsidies and countervailing duties is ambiguous in its definition of legal subsidies and thus in the appropriate use of countervailing duties because the code is applied at the national level there is considerable pressure by domestic producers on administering agents to increase the use of such protective measures through the adoption of provisional measures while the investigation is being conducted and through the interpretation of criteria for coverage given that the most successful developing countries have been those which adopt the most neutral policies toward imported and domestic goods and between sectors domestically the very biased application of the subsidies and the trade policy distortions common in the countries examined together with the frequency of countervailing actions against the subsidies suggest that developing countries would benefit from abandonment of the subsidies in september of 1986 the world s trading nations agreed to begin a new round of multilateral trade negotiations to be called the uruguay round the previous negotiations the tokyo round ended in 1979 in the six intervening years 1980 85 seven countries and the european community eec initiated 1 155 antidumping cases there were also 425 antisubsidy cases half a hundred safeguards cases and several hundred other trade practice cases resulting from national attempts to interpret and enforce various international agreements table 1 the sheer number of such cases suggests that the terms and conditions on which goods are traded across national boundaries are being affected by the outcomes of such administrative processes as much as by the gradual unrolling of the tariff reductions agreed at the tokyo round the general agreement on tariffs and trade gatt and the codes which

testing for asymmetric information in insurance markets the first goal of this paper is to provide a simple and general test of the presence of asymmetric information in contractual relationships within a competitive context we also argue that insurance data are particularly well suited to such empirical investigations to illustrate this claim we use data on contracts and accidents to investigate the extent of asymmetric information in the french market for automobile insurance using various parametric and nonparametric methods we find no evidence for the presence of asymmetric information in this market

technological activity and survival of firms abstract the paper presents new evidence on the effect of technological activity on the post entry performance of firms by comparing firm survival across technical and non technical products and over stages of differing technological activity it attempts to resolve two seemingly contradictory hypotheses that uncertainty inherent in high technological activity reduces the probability of survival and that technological activity increases the probability of entrant survival the empirical results in the context of the product life cycle framework show that entering firms enjoy a higher probability of survival in stages of high technological activity and in products that are more technical in nature however the hazard function the probability of failure conditional on age is higher for technical products reflecting the adverse effects of technical uncertainty and obsolescence of incumbent knowledge

a pure financial explanation for trade credit this paper provided a pure financial explanation for the existence of trade credit and for the values of the credit terms offered to customers two motives for extending trade credit were identified the pure operating flexibility motive arises because the opportunity to change credit policy provides the seller an efficient way to respond to fluctuations in demand this motive was eliminated from consideration in this paper by assuming constant demand the seller must hold a liquid reserve when the financial markets are imperfect and the desire to earn an excess rate of return on this reserve explains the pure financial intermediary motive for trade credit the pure financial incentive to lend this liquid reserve to customers was examined by viewing a market borrowing rate of interest that exceeds the market lending rate of interest as a hindrance to trade or equivalently as a financial market tariff this tariff imposes a wedge between the market prices paid and received for the product plus a loan and thereby inflicts a loss of surplus on the seller and buyers trade credit lending enables the seller and or the buyers to recapture at least part of this loss when the source of the tariff does not apply to direct loans to customers financial market tariffs caused by transactions costs fulfill this requirement because the trade credit lender s familiarity with its customers and product provide it with information and collection cost advantages over financial intermediaries tariffs caused by financial intermediary rents fulfill this requirement as well because the parties to a trade credit loan do not employ the services of a financial intermediary increasing opportunity costs and financial market imperfections in addition to the ones described above establish the limits of credit policy the optimal amount of accounts receivable is derived from the condition that the marginal revenue of trade credit lending is equal to the marginal cost this condition combined with factoring costs produces a unique finite optimal credit period accrual accounting for income tax purposes imposes an additional restriction because the firm is taxed on the recovery of its opportunity costs these limitations on credit policy were examined separately in this paper for clarity but they are in effect simultaneously in practice

the allocation of credit and financial collapse this paper examines the allocation of credit in a market in which borrowers have greater information concerning their own riskiness than do lenders it illustrates that 1 the allocation of credit is inefficient and at times can be improved by government intervention and 2 small changes in the exogenous risk free interest rate can cause large discontinuous changes in the allocation of credit and the efficiency of the market equilibrium these conclusions suggests a role for government as the lender of last resort

adverse selection and moral hazard in insurance can dynamic data help to distinguish a standard problem of applied contracts theory is to empirically distinguish between adverse selection and moral hazard we show that dynamic insurance data allow to distinguish moral hazard from dynamic selection on unobservables in the presence of moral hazard experience rating implies negative occurrence dependence individual claim intensities decrease with the number of past claims we discuss econometric tests for the various types of data that are typically available finally we argue that dynamic data also allow to test for adverse selection even if it is based on asymmetric learning jel d82 g22 c41 c14

selection in insurance markets theory and empirics in pictures government intervention in insurance markets is ubiquitous and the theoretical basis for such intervention based on classic work from the 1970s has been the problem of adverse selection over the last decade empirical work on selection in insurance markets has gained considerable momentum this research finds that adverse selection exists in some insurance markets but not in others and it has uncovered examples of markets that exhibit advantageous selection a phenomenon not considered by the original theory and one that has different consequences for equilibrium insurance allocation and optimal public policy than the classical case of adverse selection advantageous selection arises when the individuals who are willing to pay the most for insurance are those who are the most risk averse and so have the lowest expected cost indeed it is natural to think that in many instances individuals who value insurance more may also take action to lower their expected costs drive more carefully invest in preventive health care and so on researchers have taken steps toward estimating the welfare consequences of detected selection and of potential public policy interventions in this essay we present a graphical framework for analyzing both theoretical and empirical work on selection in insurance markets this graphical approach provides both a useful and intuitive depiction of the basic theory of selection and its implications for welfare and public policy as well as a lens through which one can understand the ideas and limitations of existing empirical work on this topic

incrementality of sme loan guarantees in many countries loan guarantee programs are important elements of government policy with respect to small and medium sized enterprises smes if loan guarantee schemes are to be effective a majority of firms obtaining assistance through such a scheme ought not to be able to obtain financing from existing sources a property known as incrementality or additionality this paper describes a new approach to measuring incrementality this work uses a two stage process to estimate the incrementality of loans made under the terms of the canada small business financing csbf program first a logistic regression based model of loan outcomes essentially a credit scoring model is estimated based on a large representative sample of smes the resulting model was consistent with prior expectations and exhibited high levels of goodness of fit the model was then employed to classify a sample of firms that had received loans under the terms of the loan guarantee scheme incremental loans ought to be classified as turndowns by the model hence the proportion of loan guarantee recipients that the model classified as turndowns is a direct measure of incrementality for the csbf loan guarantee program incrementality was estimated with 95 confidence as 74 8 9 0

loan guarantees and the cost of debt evidence from china abstractin this article we examine the potential influence of loan guarantees and the nature of ownership on a company s cost of debt using data on chinese a share listed companies from 2007 to 2014 we find that guaranteeing another entity s debt significantly increases the guarantor s cost of its own debt regarding the nature of ownership our results indicate that the cost of debt for state owned enterprises soes is lower than that for non soes among soes firms controlled by the central government have lower cost of debt than firms controlled by local governments we also find some evidence that local government ownership mitigates the effects of loan guarantees on the cost of a guarantor s own debt

effect of credit guarantee policy on survival and performance of smes in republic of korea this study evaluates the effect of credit guarantee on smes at the firm level to estimate the effect of credit guarantee we analyze relations between credit guarantee the survival of guaranteed firms and their productive performance the result indicates that credit guarantee frequency enabled guaranteed firms to achieve good performances in general on the contrary the effect of guarantee amounts is ambiguous in that there is difference between the contemporary effect and the lagged effect therefore we conclude that credit guarantee satisfied partially its goal to alleviate smes difficulty in acquiring finance and to stabilize employment

testing gibrat s law for small young and innovating firms this article analyses whether small young and innovating firms have experienced a greater employment growth than other spanish firms over the period 1990 2000 the study draws upon a sample of 1272 manufacturing firms in which only 967 of the firms survived for the entire ten year period the analyses test gibrat s law both by least squares and by utilizing the procedure proposed by heckman in which a probit survival equation is first estimated to correct for sample selection bias two estimators correcting for selection bias are utilized one that incorporates the inverse mill s ratio and the other that employs maximum likelihood methods all the results reject gibrat s law and support the proposition that small firms have grown larger additionally the results show that old firms grow less than young ones and innovating activity both process and product is a strong positive factor in the firm s survival and its employment growth

foreign owned banks in the united states earning market share or buying it foreign owned u s banks have been chronically unprofitable for more than a decade the authors employ a profit efficiency model introduced by allen n berger diana hancock and david b humphrey 1993 modified to be less sensitive to variations in asset size to estimate the relative profit efficiency of 62 foreign owned and 240 u s owned banks between 1985 and 1990 their results indicate that foreign owned banks were significantly less profit efficient than were u s owned banks primarily due to foreign banks reliance on expensive purchased funds for foreign owned banks the results are consistent with a strategy of sacrificing profits in exchange for fast growth and increased market share during the 1980s copyright 1996 by ohio state university press

on the relationship between firm size and export intensity export marketing literature supports the view that firm size is positively related to export intensity although the empirical findings have been mixed a number of theoretical arguments are used to support this proposition i e international marketing economies of scale limited managerial and financial resources of small firms decisionmaker s risk perception based on a large survey of the italian manufacturing industry the article falsifies the proposition and challenges some widely held assumptions in export marketing literature

firm growth and liquidity constraints a dynamic analysis using a large unbalanced panel data set of portuguese manufacturing firms surviving over the period from 1990 to 2001 the purpose of this paper is to examine whether liquidity constraints faced by business firms affect firm growth we use a gmm system to estimate a dynamic panel data model of firm growth that incorporates cash flow as a measure of liquidity constraints and persistence of growth the model is estimated for all size classes including micro firms our findings reveal that smaller and younger firms have higher growth cash flow sensitivities than larger and more mature firms this is consistent with the suggestion that financial constraints on firm growth may be relatively more severe for small and young firms nevertheless the same finding can be interpreted in a different way if we consider the more recent literature which interpret the higher investment cash flow sensitivity of younger and smaller firm in absence of financial market imperfection as the outcome of these firms reaction to the fact that realisation of their cash flows reveals them the direction to go in presence of uncertainty of their growth prospect besides firms that were small and young at the beginning of the sample period exhibited more persistent growth than those that were large and old finally these results have significant policy implications

crop yield skewness under law of the minimum technology no satisfactory motivation has been forwarded in favor of any crop yield distribution including the normal this article explores the foundations of yield distributions for the law of the minimum resource constraint technology at the plot level of analysis with independent identical uniform resource availability distributions the yield skew is positive whereas it is negative whenever the distributions are normal simulations show how asymmetries in resource availabilities determine skewness it is suggested that a negative yield skew occurs whenever production is tightly controlled so that the left tails of some resources availabilities distributions are thin irrigation may increase yield skewness copyright 2009 oxford university press

bank commercial loan markets and the role of market structure evidence from surveys of commercial lending abstract this paper seeks to test two tenets that underlie the current practice of antitrust analysis in banking the first is the view that bank commercial loan markets are local in nature and the second is the view that banks in more concentrated markets are more likely to engage in some form of noncompetitive behavior tests of both of these tenets are conducted using an extensive set of loan specific survey information not previously employed to address these issues results consistent with the existence of local banking markets and the dominance of competitive differences as an explanation for observed differences in loan rates are found

business failure of new firms an empirical analysis using a multiplicative hazards model abstract this paper investigates business failure of new firms using a multiplicative hazards model we estimate the determinants of business failure among new manufacturing firms in tokyo during the period 1986 to 1994 it is found that a new firm without sufficient capital or a sufficient size has a higher risk of business failure it is also found that the new firm tends to have more difficulty surviving in an industry characterized by a high entry rate with respect to the timing of entry the new firm that entered just before or after the collapse of the so called bubble economy has been more likely to fail furthermore we estimate a regression model based not only on age but also on calendar time by using a regression model based on calendar time it is found that the firm s age has been related to business failure

no deep pockets some stylized empirical results on firms financial constraints this paper is a survey of recent empirical work on financial constraints faced by firms it is organized as a series of stylized results which mirror what is generally understood about the severity of financial constraints and the effects that they have upon firms the review of the literature shows that a financial constraints are a widespread key concern for firms hindering their ability to carry out their optimal investment and growth trajectories and b the severity of such constraints depends on institutional and firm specific characteristics as well as on the nature of investment projects

the relationship between firm growth size and age estimates for 100 manufacturing industries this study uses a sample of all firms operating in 100 manufacturing industries to examine some aspects of firm dynamics it finds that firm growth the variability of firm growth and the probability that a firm will fail decrease with firm age it also finds that firm growth decreases at a diminishing rate with firm size even after controlling for the exit of slow growing firms from the sample gibrat s law therefore fails although the severity of the failure decreases with firm size copyright 1987 by blackwell publishing ltd

age size growth and survival uk companies in the 1980s this paper examines growth and survival amongst quoted and unquoted u k companies in the period 1975 85 and compares the results with earlier u k and u s studies an examination of death rates shows that smaller companies had higher death rates but the largest and smallest companies were least vulnerable to takeover careful attention is therefore paid to problems of sample selection bias it is shown that smaller companies grew faster than larger companies that gibrat s law does not hold amongst smaller firms that age is negatively related to growth and that these results are not an artifact of sample selection bias copyright 1994 by blackwell publishing ltd

new ventures and their credit terms using uk bank data for 466 new venture loan applications we explore the determinants of interest margin the sanctioning decision and the amount borrowed when these factors are considered simultaneously collateral levels greatly influence the size of credits to new ventures a finding consistent with existing work on firm foundation rates and assets black et al economic journal 106 60 75 1996 de meza and webb the economic journal 109 153 163 1999 evans and jovanovic journal of political economy 97 4 808 827 1989 holtz eakin et al 1994 consistent with the rand journal of economics 25 334 347 diversionary models of debt firms with larger credits enjoy discounted interest margins even when we have controlled for firm size

loan guarantees costs of default and benefits to small firms abstract governments of most countries seek to encourage small and medium sized enterprise sme growth and the job creation that many believe is fostered by such growth substantive growth usually requires expansion capital it is often perceived that compared with larger firms smes face disproportionately less access to the debt capital they need for start up growth and survival consequently governments and trade associations have often intervened in credit markets by taking on the role of guarantor of loans that financial institutions advance to smes for example the small business administration in the united states provides guarantees of loans made by banks to qualifying small firms similar schemes are in effect in among other countries canada japan the u k korea and germany trade associations take on such roles in france spain and other nations loans that support the expansion of small enterprises may convey significant benefits to the borrowing firms and through job creation and retention to the rest of society however to the extent that some borrowers are unable to meet the repayment obligations of their debt guarantors also face material real costs of honoring their guarantee to the lenders loan guarantee programs are designed in a variety of ways often these programs do not appear to reflect guidance from economic theory or experience this paper draws on empirical evidence to compare costs with benefits in addition it uses the results and economic theory to provide some guidance for the design of loan guarantee programs finally the study shows that loan guarantee programs can be an effective means of supporting start up growth and survival of new and risky enterprises the work finds that substantial total and incremental job creation may be attributed to the canadian loan guarantee program the paper reviews previous attempts to conduct cost benefit analyses of loan guarantee programs it finds wide variation internationally in default rates published data suggests default rates vary from less than 5 germany to more than 40 u k the empirical analysis reported here focuses on the canadian implementation of loan guarantees the small business loans act sbla findings include 1 loan guarantees granted under the terms of the sbla provide an extremely efficient means of job creation with very low estimated costs per job 2 default rates are higher for newer firms increase with the amount of funds borrowed and vary widely by sector borrowers in the retail and accommodation and food and beverage sectors were significantly more likely to default than borrowers in other sectors and 3 the widening eligibility to larger firms and to larger loans may not be well advised and is inconsistent with the goals of the program moreover reducing the loan ceiling would arguably discourage fraudulent applications while servicing those smes most in need of early stage capital in addition analysis of the lenders motives suggests that default rates on the portfolio of guaranteed loans and therefore the costs of honoring guarantees are particularly sensitive to the level of the guarantee small reductions in the level of the guarantee for example guaranteeing 80 of principal and accrued interest instead of 85 could lead to substantial reductions in default rates debate persists in economic theory about whether or not government intervention in the credit market is warranted in spite of the findings that loan guarantees seem to make positive contributions further analysis of these issues is advised

state conditional fertilizer yield response on western kenyan farms 15 16 17 we acknowledge with gratitude support from the rockefeller foundation the united states agency for 18 international development usaid leadership enhancement in agriculture program leap and the 19 coupled natural and human systems program of the biocomplexity initiative of the national science 20 foundation through grant bcs 0215890 the world agroforestry center icraf graciously hosted 21 the lead author for part of the research and provided soil test results we are also grateful to james

information or regulation what drives the international activities of commercial banks information costs and regulatory barriers distinguish international financial markets from national ones using panel data on bilateral assets and liabilities of commercial banks i empirically determine the impact of information costs and regulations and i isolate intra eu financial linkages i confirm that information costs and regulations are important factors influencing international asset choices of banks but their relative importance differs among countries

where do financial constraints originate from an empirical analysis of adverse selection and moral hazard in capital markets despite the voluminous and growing literature on financial constraints the origins of the constraints are hardly ever empirically analyzed this paper offers such an analysis we study in particular the empirical prevalence of adverse selection and moral hazard in capital markets using a unique survey data on finnish small and medium sized enterprises smes the survey data suggest that adverse selection is empirically more prevalent than moral hazard in the capital markets that the smes face we also find that of the variables indicating the presence of adverse selection and moral hazard the former has more explanatory power in regressions modeling the availability of external finance to the smes than the latter finally we document that our proxies for adverse selection and moral hazard are inversely related to the age of firms just like peter diamond s 1989 model predicts

information asymmetry in small and medium enterprise credit guarantee schemes evidence from japan in this article we investigate whether there is adverse selection and or moral hazard in credit guarantee schemes for small and medium enterprises smes in japan as credit guarantee corporations

asymmetric information in insurance general testable implications several recent articles on empirical contract theory and insurance have tested for a positive correlation between coverage and ex post risk as predicted by standard models of pure adverse selection or pure moral hazard we show here that the positive correlationproperty can be extended to general setups competitive insurance markets and cases where risk aversion is public we test our results on a french dataset our tests confirm that the estimated correlation is positive they also suggest the presence of market power

r d in smes a paradox this paper has three objectives 1 to survey the relevant literature addressing the apparent paradox of research development investments carried out within small and medium enterprises 2 to provide focused summaries of the articles in this special issue 3 to draw some general conclusions in terms of policy implications

testing day s conjecture that more nitrogen decreases crop yield skewness whilecontroversysurroundsskewnessattributesoftypicalyielddistributions abetterunderstandingis importantforagriculturalpolicyassessmentandforcrop insuranceratesetting day 1965 conjectured that crop yield skewness declines with an increase in nitrogen use at low levels but not at higher levels employing four corn yield experimental plot datasets we investigate the conjecture by introducing a a flexible bayesian extension of the just pope technology to incorporate skewness and b a quantilebased measure of skewness shift bayesian estimation provides strong evidence in favor of negative skewnessatcommercialnitrogenratesandforday sconjecture therewasweakerevidenceinfavorof positively skewed cotton yield and little evidence in favor of the conjecture the results are confirmed by the quantile based measure we also find evidence that skewness becomes more negative upon moving from corn after corn to corn after soybean

trade credit and credit rationing asymmetric information between banks and firms can preclude financing of valuable projects trade credit alleviates this problem by incorporating in the lending relation the private information held by suppliers about their customers incentive compatibility conditions prevent collusion between two of the agents e g the buyer and the seller against the third e g the bank consistent with the empirical findings of petersen and rajan 1995 firms without relationships with banks resort more to trade credit and sellers with greater ability to generate cash lows provide more trade credit finally small firms react to monetary contractions by using trade credit consistent with the empirical results of nilsen 1994 article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

the economic impact of the canada small business financing program this paper investigates the economic impact of the canada small business financing program csbfp using the 2004 edition of the survey on financing of small and medium enterprises to avoid the usual self selection problem associated with voluntary participation in such programs the financing behavior of the business and its intention to grow are used as control variables based on this analysis participation in the csbfp would have increased growth in salary employment and revenues by 12 12 and 7 percentage points respectively between 2004 and 2006 furthermore csbfp would have induced around 5 000 jobs approximately 3 8 of those created in that time span by small private businesses

new firm survival industry strategy and location abstract how important is the physical location of a new firm for its chances of survival location of a new firm whether in urban metro or rural vicinities can have important impacts on performance outcomes urban locations often contain a wealth of diverse resources but may also have a greater number of competitors rural locations may lack diversity but can enable the firm to exploit a niche with limited competition we suggest that a simple examination of new firm location will not adequately predict survival chances rather the impact on location of the new firm will be influenced by the industry in which the new firm operates and by the strategy the new firm pursues the industry of the new firm is examined by focusing on where the new firm is located in the value chain we predict that a new firm upstream in the industry value chain will have better chances of survival than new firms downstream in the industry value chain new firms with broadly focused strategies are hypothesized to have greater survival chances than new firms strategically positioned to exploit a narrow market focus and we predict that new firms in urban locations will have greater chances for survival than new firms in rural locations

financial and legal constraints to growth does firm size matter using a unique firm level survey database covering 54 countries we investigate the effect of financial legal and corruption problems on firms growth rates whether these factors constrain growth depends on firm size it is consistently the smallest firms that are most constrained financial and institutional development weakens the constraining effects of financial legal and corruption obstacles and it is again the small firms that benefit the most there is only a weak relation between firms perception of the quality of the courts in their country and firm growth we also provide evidence that the corruption of bank officials constrains firm growth

a more complete conceptual framework for sme finance abstract we propose a more complete conceptual framework for analysis of sme credit availability issues in this framework lending technologies are the key conduit through which government policies and national financial structures affect credit availability we emphasize a causal chain from policy to financial structures which affect the feasibility and profitability of different lending technologies these technologies in turn have important effects on sme credit availability financial structures include the presence of different financial institution types and the conditions under which they operate lending technologies include several transactions technologies plus relationship lending we argue that the framework implicit in most of the literature is oversimplified neglects key elements of the chain and often yields misleading conclusions a common oversimplification is the treatment of transactions technologies as a homogeneous group unsuitable for serving informationally opaque smes and a frequent misleading conclusion is that large institutions are disadvantaged in lending to opaque smes

comparative analysis of firm demographics and survival evidence from micro level sources in oecd countries in this paper we present cross country evidence on firm size distribution firm demographic and post entry performance for 10 oecd countries we use harmonized firm level data drawn from business registers or social security records these data enable international comparisons and the identification of idiosyncratic country effects while average firm size differs across countries due to both sectoral specialization and within sector characteristics we find similar degrees of firm churning across countries in most of them about 20 of firms enter and exit most markets every year and about 20 40 of entering firms fail within the first 2 years of life however post entry growth of successful entrants is much higher in the usa than in europe which may be indicative of barriers to firm growth as opposed to barriers to entry

partial credit guarantees and firm performance evidence from colombia this paper studies the effect of government backed partial credit guarantees on firms performance in colombia these guarantees are automatically granted by the national guarantee fund ngf to firms without enough collateral to lift their credit constraints we put together a panel of firms covering the period 1997 2007 that allows us to control for observed and unobserved firm characteristics potentially affecting both the selection of firms into the program and firms performance we find that firms that gain access to credit backed by the ngf were able to grow in terms of both output and employment however we do not find any effect on productivity wages or investment

integrating agronomic principles into production function specification a dichotomy of growth inputs and facilitating inputs this article presents a general conceptual framework for integrating agronomic principles into economic production analysis we categorize inputs in crop production into growth inputs and facilitating inputs based on this dichotomy we specify an asymmetric production function the robustness of the asymmetric framework is tested using crop level panel data on potato production in the netherlands the test results do not reject the proposed framework and the asymmetric specification better represents the underlying production technology

new firm survival new results using a hazard function a limitation of audretsch s 1991 study of new firm survival was the level of aggregation to industries this precluded linking establishment specific characteristics such as organizational structure and size to post entry performance the purpose of this paper is to relate the post entry performance of individual establishments not only to their technological and market structure environments but also to establishment specific characteristics we do this by estimating a hazard duration function for more than 12 000 individual establishments in u s manufacturing started in 1976 by tracking their subsequent performance over a ten year period we conclude that establishment specific characteristics which audretsch was not able to capture in his earlier study play an important role in shaping the exposure to risk confronting new establishments copyright 1995 by mit press

bank regulation and the credit crunch abstract this study investigates the direct link between regulatory enforcement actions and the shrinkage of bank loans to sectors likely to be bank dependent we partition the shrinkage due to loan supply into the component due to explicit regulatory enforcement actions and that due to a voluntary response by bank management to low capital to asset ratios we find that banks with formal actions shrink at a significantly faster rate than those without even after controlling for differences in capital to asset ratios furthermore much of the reduced lending has been in categories containing primarily loans to bank dependent borrowers

why do most firms die young a model is developed to explain why most firms die in the first few years of trading a risk averse entrepreneur with initial capital endowment faces a brownian motion in net worth over time to balance return profits growth and risk variance of profits she adopts a portfolio strategy choosing market positioning to achieve an optimal combination of risk and return at each instant given her financial and human capital endowments and attitude towards risk failure occurs when the firm s value falls below the opportunity cost of staying in business the resulting distribution of failure is inverse gaussian implying for specific parameter values a positively skewed failure curve of the type observed in practice in addition the model presents a novel measure of management human capital mhc which implies that high mhc entrepreneurs will have higher absolute and marginal profits growth than low mhc entrepreneurs at given levels of risk

a strong test of the von liebig hypothesis department of agricultural and resource economics and polij y1 division of agriculture and natural resources iversity of california at berkeley working paper no 860 a strong test of the v on liebig hypothesis by peter berek jacqueline geoghegan and stephen stobs california agricultural experiment station giannini foundation of agricultural economics october 1998

why do entrepreneurs use franchising as a financial tool an agency explanation abstract when and why one type of entrepreneur franchisor attracts to its ventures another type of entrepreneur franchisees instead of passive investors is a central concern in entrepreneurship literature based on the informativeness principle of the principal agent model we claim that franchisees are not such an expensive financial tool as has been argued in the literature because their compensation return is more efficiently designed it directly depends on variables which are under franchisees control we therefore link agency and financial explanations for franchising most of our findings show that once the agency argument is controlled for the higher the cost of alternative funds for the franchisor estimated through different variables the more the franchisor will rely on expansion through franchising as opposed to company ownership we interpret this as a clue that franchising is also used as a financial capital source

evaluation of credit guarantee policy using propensity score matching in this article we evaluate the effect of the credit guarantee policy by comparing a large sample of guaranteed firms and matched non guaranteed firms from 2000 to 2003 the sample firms are compared with respect to growth rates of different performance indicators including productivity sales employment investment r d wage level and the survival of firms in the post crisis period in order to avoid the selectivity problem propensity score matching methodologies are adopted results suggest that credit guarantees influenced significantly firms ability to maintain their size and increase their survival rate but not to increase their r d and investment and hence their growth in productivity moreover due to the adverse selection problem firms with lower productivity were receiving guarantees

evaluating guarantee fees for loans to small and medium sized enterprises governments all over the world regard loan guarantee schemes lgs as one of the most regularly used and relatively effective mechanisms to support small and medium sized enterprises smes financially by facilitating their access to debt capital due to its nature of involving implicit indirect subsidization a lgs is mostly evaluated in terms of the economic and social benefits created such as generation of export revenues and creation of employment opportunities although most government sponsored programs do not set up clear cut definitions for how to evaluate those benefits and what targets should be achieved they do have an initial aim of self financing since guarantee fees premiums represent the largest cash inflow for a guarantor and the most critical index to indicate a borrower s credit status this paper proposes a methodology that specifically aims for this self financing target by meeting at least default costs with income from premiums this is done by actuarially determining a guarantee fee for each loan based on market based information and risk neutrality concepts empirical evidence shows that real cash outflows costs of honoring defaults are very close to estimated cash inflows total guarantee fees which indicates that the objective of meeting budget constraints is achieved

the role of small firms in the technology development of china science technology s t is high on the chinese policy agenda and the country aims at becoming an innovation driven economy small firms have been important in technology development in other east asian countries but the situation in chinese small firms has been far less explored we examine how much s t has been accounted for by small firms and how their s t intensity differs across industries and ownership groups we also analyse how various firm characteristics differ over size categories and s t status this study is based on newly processed micro level data provided by the national bureau of statistics with information on a large number of s t indicators for manufacturing firms in china in 2000 and 2004 our results suggest that the role of small firms in chinese s t is similar to that in many other countries they account for a comparably small share of total s t and most small firms are not engaged in any s t however those small firms that do engage in s t tend to be more s t intensive and have a higher output in terms of patents than larger chinese s t firms

trade policies and the highly indebted countries in the early 1980s faced with a mounting debt crisis most highly indebted developing countries increased trade barriers to save foreign exchange but in the last three to four years they have reversed course almost all of these countries have undergone real devaluations and many have undertaken significant liberalizations so much so that some bolivia costa rica jamaica mexico morocco and uruguay are less protectionist than before the debt crisis but industrial countries have imposed new nontariff barriers against imports from highly indebted countries canada australia the european community and the united states have greatly increased the use of countervailing duties and antidumping actions this makes it more difficult for highly indebted countries to pay off their debts and ultimately rebounds on creditor governments and banks

the latent demand for bank debt characterizing discouraged borrowers concerns that small firms encounter credit constraints are well entrenched in the literature despite widespread empirical evidence that a relatively small proportion of small firms have their loan applications rejected however many firms may be discouraged from applying for fear of rejection these businesses are the focus of this paper based on responses to a large scale postal survey of uk small and medium sized enterprises smes we find that twice as many businesses were discouraged from applying for a bank loan than had their loan request denied more particularly we observe a number of distinguishing characteristics of discouraged borrowers relative to applicants these include strategy sector prior entrepreneurial experience and banking relationships the implications of our findings for policy and future research are briefly discussed

the cost of growth small firms and the pricing of bank loans drawing upon data from the 2007 uk survey of sme finance the current analysis is concerned with the extent to which growth firms are discriminated on price in loan markets or more simply the extent to which growth firms pay more for credit given relatively small turndown rates historically vos et al in j bank finance 31 9 2648 2672 2007 higher credit prices may be a more substantial growth constraint than the access to finance issues that have dominated the academic literature to date to this end we observe inter alia that firms who have recorded recent high growth are more likely to pay higher interest rates for the loan they obtained moreover small sized firms who intend to grow through the introduction of new products exhibit a higher probability of paying more for credit than their peers finally acknowledging that banks are not risk funders we discuss the potential policy implications of these findings

updating a credit scoring model based on new attributes without realization of actual data abstract funding small and medium sized enterprises smes to support technological innovation is critical for national competitiveness technology credit scoring models are required for the selection of appropriate funding beneficiaries typically a technology credit scoring model consists of several attributes and new models must be derived every time these attributes are updated however it is not feasible to develop new models until sufficient historical evaluation data based on these new attributes will have accumulated in order to resolve this limitation we suggest the framework to update the technology credit scoring model this framework consists of ways to construct new technology credit scoring model by comparing alternative scenarios for various relationships between existing and new attributes based on explanatory factor analysis analysis of variance and logistic regression our approach can contribute to find the optimal scenario for updating a scoring model

information sharing in credit markets we present a model with adverse selection where information sharing between lenders arises endogenously lenders incentives to share information about borrowers are positively related to the mobility and heterogeneity of borrowers to the size of the credit market and to advances in information technology such incentives are instead reduced by the fear of competition from potential entrants in addition information sharing increases the volume of lending when adverse selection is so severe that safe borrowers drop out of the market these predictions are supported by international and historical evidence in the context of the consumer credit market a large body of literature on credit markets has shown that asymmetric information may prevent the efficient allocation of lending leading to credit rationing e g jaffee and russell 1976 stiglitz and weiss 1981 or to a wedge between lending and borrowing rates e g king 1986 in this literature informational asymmetries are taken to be exogenous lenders fail to observe some relevant characteristic or action of potential borrowers and have no way of learning about it in some countries however lenders can improve their knowledge about new customers by exchanging information with other lenders through information brokers generally known as credit bureaus the latter collect file and distribute the information voluntarily supplied by their members and operate on the principle of reciprocity lenders who do not provide data are denied access to the bureau s files in other countries instead these institutions do not exist the literature offers no guide to identify the factors that lead to endogenous communication between lenders this paper is an attempt to fill the gap information sharing is important for a number of reasons it may increase the degree of competitiveness within credit markets vives 1990 improve

is subsidizing entry an optimal policy public subsidies in support of new firm foundation are among the most frequently used instruments of industrial policy in the euro zone this paper analyses their effectiveness and efficiency vis a vis some features of the overall process of industry dynamics in italian manufacturing to this end the survival and growth patterns of new small firms are investigated using a unique dataset on electrical and electronic engineering in italy as regards survival our results confirm the findings of other studies namely that the hazard rates are particularly high in the early stages of firm s life cycle as far as growth is concerned the study s main finding is that gibrat s law fails to hold in the years immediately following start up when smaller firms must rush in order to achieve a size large enough to enhance their likelihood of survival conversely in later stages of firm s life cycle the law cannot be rejected these results radically question the use of subsidies as an optimal policy for the support of new entries since the subsidy brings about a major bias in the process of market selection including substitution and deadweight effects and hampers the post entry scale adjustment of newborn firms

cost of capital and public loan guarantees to small firms in this paper we study the determinants of the spread charged by banks under a uk policy intervention scheme aimed at supporting access to the credit market for small firms through guarantee backed loans we exploit a unique dataset containing data on 29 266 guarantee backed loans under the uk sflg scheme over the period 2000 to 2005 results suggest that lower spreads are offered for loans of larger amounts and higher durations for service firms for larger firms and for those located in the most advanced regions higher spreads are applied to high tech manufacturing firms and to loans issued for working capital purposes we also find that the presence of other extant debt is associated with a relatively higher spread and that this effect is especially significant for the subset of firms that have reached a maximum debt capacity based on collateralized assets further we also find that the higher the incidence of the publicly guaranteed debt over the total amount of outstanding loans the lower on average the spread however an increase in the guaranteed coverage leads to a contraction in the spread only for loans aimed at covering working capital needs rather than investments

an optimal financial response to variable demand this paper develops a positive theory of trade credit based on its use as a financial response to deterministic variations in demand the operating alternatives to trade credit which include the use of storage or additional capacity are modeled using results from the peak load pricing literature the paper shows that the extension of credit partitions the buyer s inventory cost and permits specialization at incurring the components of this cost this specialization is economical when the seller has an advantage at incurring the financial cost and does not have an advantage at incurring the operating cost of accommodating variable demand conditions that provide these necessary and sufficient cost relationships are described the paper also shows that a reduction in costs rather than an increase in revenues is the source of both the buyer s and seller s increase in wealth

intra industry effects of bank privatization a clinical analysis of the privatization of the commonwealth bank of australia abstract this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the effects of the privatization of the commonwealth bank of australia cba on the bank s performance and that of the rival banks first we find that the major rival banks reacted negatively to the privatization announcements although the initial partial privatization and the final full privatization announcements elicited stronger stock market reaction from the rival banks second we find that the cba s long term stock market performance improved markedly as the proportion of government ownership decreased with the bank s cumulative abnormal returns being 50 more than those of its rivals three years after the bank had been fully privatized also the cba has not only been very efficient in reducing cost and improving its profitability in the post privatization period it has outperformed its rivals on almost all the operating performance measures and has become the most profitable bank in australia a particularly noteworthy finding is that the improvements in the cba s operating and stock market performance and the rival banks reaction to the partial and full privatization announcements were strongest after the bank had been fully privatized the implication of the results for governments contemplating privatization of state owned enterprises is that full privatization is necessary in order to achieve strong gains in efficiency profitability and stock market performance

institutional lending to knowledge based businesses abstract knowledge based businesses kbbs are vital to economic development and revitalization in many regions especially in areas that have experienced a decline in traditional industries while much attention has been devoted to various aspects of traditional small firm financing there is a paucity of empirical research to explain how new knowledge based firms are externally financed the current study researches institutional strategies structures and risk assessment practices of chartered banks and government agencies in a peripheral region of canada it examines the extent to which these institutions have modified traditional lending approaches and practices to meet the needs of knowledge based firms the study explores the existence of institutional lending cultures through an empirical investigation of risk assessment practices employed by account managers two business proposals one for a knowledge based firm and one for a more traditional firm were presented to account managers in chartered banks and government agencies for initial review and subsequent due diligence and risk assessment verbal protocols and interview data obtained at three stages of the due diligence process were analyzed using standard multivariate techniques and consensus analysis ca ca a tool developed to measure cultural agreement in cognitive anthropology was employed to assess the level of agreement among lenders with respect to risk assessment overall the study findings confirm that specialized strategies structures and processes for lending to kbbs are only partially developed are still evolving and are considerably diverse in both the banking and government sectors furthermore the level of agreement among lenders develops during the course of the due diligence process results confirm consensus and the existence of a lending culture sensitive to the needs of kbbs among a select but important subgroup knowledge based lending specialists the paper discusses the implications of these findings for researchers entrepreneurs in search of capital and policy makers seeking to develop new business opportunities for regional economic development

the extent of nontariff barriers to industrial countries imports this paper examines the extent of non tariff barriers to sixteen industrial countries visible imports using three alternative measures it shows that governmental commodity specific border measures affect over 27 of all imports and over 34 of imports from developing countries it also shows that during the period 1981 83 ntbs became significantly more extensive detailed statistics reveal considerable variations in ntb coverage by commodity type of barrier importer and exporter the data on which these conclusions are based are compiled from official information at the finest level of disaggregation they are described in the paper

the survival of new plants start up conditions and post entry evolution abstract this paper examines the longevity of entrants we find size to be an important determinant of the chances of survival this being particularly relevant to de novo entrants as compared with entry by established firms current size is also found to be a better predictor of failure than initial size moreover our findings indicate that after controlling for size differences past growth matters for survival suggesting a partial adjustment process for firm size in the post entry period finally new plants are more likely to live longer if they enter growing industries or industries with little entry activity

does local financial development matter we study the effects of differences in local financial development within an integrated financial market we construct a new indicator of financial development by estimating a regional effect on the probability that ceteris paribus a household is shut off from the credit market by using this indicator we find that financial development enhances the probability an individual starts his own business favors entry of new firms increases competition and promotes growth as predicted by theory these effects are weaker for larger firms which can more easily raise funds outside of the local area these effects are present even when we instrument our indicator with the structure of the local banking markets in 1936 which because of regulatory reasons affected the supply of credit in the following 50 years overall the results suggest local financial development is an important determinant of the economic success of an area even in an environment where there are no frictions to capital movements

causal effect of credit guarantees for small and medium sized enterprises evidence from italy we evaluate the effectiveness of a partial credit guarantee program implemented in a large italian region that aimed to improve the access to credit of small and medium enterprises using unique microdata from a broad set of firms we show that the policy increased the long term loans for beneficiary firms while the total volume of bank loans was unaffected furthermore targeted firms benefited from a substantial decrease in interest rates however there is some evidence that firms are more likely to default as a consequence of the treatment conversely the results do not point to any significant effect on investments