wages and productivity growth in a dynamic monopoly abstract this paper studies the intertemporal problem of a monopolistic firm that engages in productivity enhancing innovations to reduce labor costs the optimal innovation policy is not monotone and the rate of productivity growth is the highest when the firm s size is in some intermediate range as long as its initial productivity is not too low the firm eventually reaches a steady state where the rate of productivity growth is identical to the rate of wage growth productivity dependent wage differentials do not affect productivity growth in the steady state they increase however the firm s long run equilibrium cost level

the growth of business firms facts and theory we refer to the framework developed by ijiri and simon 1977 and to the notion of independent submarkets sutton 1998 to provide a simple candidate explanation for the shape of the firm growth distribution based on a model of proportional growth at the level of both the introduction of new products by firms and their size dynamics we exploit the features of a unique longitudinal data set which covers the entire distribution of products and firms in the worldwide pharmaceutical industry to test the model at different levels of aggregation as well as at different time lags econometric investigations show that the model s predictions are in good agreement with empirical evidence jel l11 l65

defensive strategies in the quality ladders abstract this paper analyses the potentially defensive behaviour of patent race winners and the ensuing effect on aggregate r d effort we propose a quality ladder model where leaders strategically acquire a technology advantage and are able to innovate in this context product market regulation by affecting this strategic behaviour may have either a positive or negative effect on aggregate r d intensity the negative effect is likely to pertain in liberal markets whereas the positive influence arises in more regulated environments and can be stronger for larger jumps in innovation these steady state equilibrium outcomes are consistent with the puzzling patterns in data from manufacturing industries in 14 oecd countries over the 1987 2003 period

bubbles and experience an experiment we investigate the occurrence of bubble crash pricing patterns in laboratory financial markets with a mixture of experienced and inexperienced traders we find that even with a minority of experienced traders bubbles are substantially abated

product innovation and firm growth evidence from the integrated circuit industry applied research on growth and innovation seems to suggest that successful innovations do not significantly enhance firm growth this paper tests the hypothesis that the level of observation at which applied research is typically conducted hampers identification of a significant association between innovation and sales growth rates exploiting a unique data set we find that product innovations commercialized in the immediate past positively affect the corporate revenue streams of semiconductor companies

firm size and economic growth abstract in a sample of more than 700 us cities the average size of manufacturing and retail firms is negatively and robustly associated with subsequent growth rates of median household income wholesale and service firms display less consistent associations

do regulations work a comprehensive analysis of price limits and trading restrictions in experimental asset markets with deterministic and stochastic fundamental values abstract we examine how traders react to two prominent stock market regulations under a constant fundamental value fv process price limits and trading restrictions significantly reduce the price level and mispricing size when traders are inexperienced under a markov process fv there is no evidence for these regulations to reduce mispricing the novel markov process also serves as a testbed for several financial hypotheses related to the regulations we find that price limits do not improve reactions to market news and the binding of price limits magnifies the momentum in the price movements these findings suggest that the scope of these regulations is limited and that they can backfire in some market environments

bubbles crashes and endogenous expectations in experimental spot asset markets1 spot asset trading is studied in an environment in which all investors receive the same dividend from a known probability distribution at the end of each of t 15 or 30 trading periods fourteen of twenty two experiments exhibit price bubbles followed by crashes relative to intrinsic dividend value when traders are experienced this reduces but does not eliminate the probability of a bubble the regression of changes in mean price on lagged excess bids number of bids minus the number of offers in the previous period p pt a f b 1 o l supports the hypothesis that a e d the one period expected value of the dividend and that f 0 where excess bids is a surrogate measure of excess demand arising from homegrown capital gains losses expectations thus when bt 1 o goes to zero we have convergence to rational expectations in the sense of fama 1970 that arbitrage becomes unprofitable the observed bubble phenomenon can also be interpreted as a form of temporary myopia tirole 1982 from which agents learn that capital gains expectations are only temporarily sustainable ultimately inducing common expectations or priors tirole 1982 four of twenty six experiments all using experienced subjects yield outcomes that appear to the chart s eye to converge early to rational expectations although even in these cases we get 0 and small price fluctuations of a few cents that invite scalping

a damped diffusion framework for financial modeling and closed form maximum likelihood estimation abstract asset price bubbles can arise unintentionally when one uses continuous time diffusion processes to model financial quantities we propose a flexible damped diffusion framework that is able to break many types of bubbles and preserve the martingale pricing approach damping can be done on either the diffusion or drift function oftentimes certain solutions to the valuation pde can be ruled out by requiring the solution to be a limit of martingale prices for damped diffusion models monte carlo study shows that with finite time series length maximum likelihood estimation often fails to detect the damped diffusion function while fabricates nonlinear drift function an alternative method based on ait sahalia s specification test on parametric models is proposed

empirical patterns of firm growth and r d investment a quality ladder model interpretation we present a partial equilibrium model of endogenous firm growth with r d investment and stochastic innovation as the engines of growth drawing on the quality ladder models in the macro growth literature and the literature on patent races and the discrete choice models of product differentiation the model fits a number of empirical patterns well including i a skewed size distribution of firms with persistent differences in firm sizes ii firm growth independent of firm size as stated in the so called gibrat s law and iii r d investment proportional to sales

firm growth and liquidity constraints a dynamic analysis using a large unbalanced panel data set of portuguese manufacturing firms surviving over the period from 1990 to 2001 the purpose of this paper is to examine whether liquidity constraints faced by business firms affect firm growth we use a gmm system to estimate a dynamic panel data model of firm growth that incorporates cash flow as a measure of liquidity constraints and persistence of growth the model is estimated for all size classes including micro firms our findings reveal that smaller and younger firms have higher growth cash flow sensitivities than larger and more mature firms this is consistent with the suggestion that financial constraints on firm growth may be relatively more severe for small and young firms nevertheless the same finding can be interpreted in a different way if we consider the more recent literature which interpret the higher investment cash flow sensitivity of younger and smaller firm in absence of financial market imperfection as the outcome of these firms reaction to the fact that realisation of their cash flows reveals them the direction to go in presence of uncertainty of their growth prospect besides firms that were small and young at the beginning of the sample period exhibited more persistent growth than those that were large and old finally these results have significant policy implications

measuring innovative performance is there an advantage in using multiple indicators abstract the innovative performance of companies has been studied quite extensively and for a long period of time however the results of many studies have not yet led to a generally accepted indicator of innovative performance or a common set of indicators so far the variety in terms of constructs measurements samples industries and countries has been substantial this paper studies the innovative performance of a large international sample of nearly 1200 companies in four high tech industries using a variety of indicators these indicators range from r d inputs patent counts and patent citations to new product announcements the study establishes that a composite construct based on these four indicators clearly catches a latent variable innovative performance however our findings also suggest that the statistical overlap between these indicators is that strong that future research might also consider using any of these indicators to measure the innovative performance of companies in high tech industries

rational expectations and the aggregation of diverse information in laboratory security markets the idea that markets might aggregate and disseminate information and also resolve conflicts is central to the literature on decentralization hurwicz 1972 and rational expectations lucas 1972 we report on three series of experiments all of which were predicted to have performed identically by the theory of rational expectations in two of the three series one in which participants trade a complete set of arrow debreu securities and a second in which all participants have identical preferences double auction trading leads to efficient aggregation of diverse information and rational expectations equilibrium failure of the third series to exhibit such convergence demonstrates the importance of market institutions and trading instruments in achievement of equilibrium

market for information experimental evidence predictions of the noisy rational expectations equilibrium ree model are found to be relatively accurate for both asset and information markets in the laboratory when information about an asset s uncertain dividend is sold to a fixed number of highest bidders prices allocations efficiency and distribution of profit predictions of the full revelation ree model in the asset market dominate the predictions of the walrasian model demand for information shifts to the left and its price declines close to zero when the price of information is fixed at a relatively high level the number of informed agents and the informativeness of the asset market tends to adjust to permit the informed agents to recover their investment in information

entry size distribution scale and scope economies in the life insurance industry existing empirical studies in the life insurance industry in the united states and canada find evidence of economies of scale in at least some aspects of the production of life insurance with consequent implications for the efficiency of life insurance markets however these empirical results are inconsistent with the institutional facts in the industry first overall economies of scale houston and simon 1970 are at odds with the evidence that over a substantial period of time the life insurance market in canada and the united states has supported a large and growing number of independent firms of vastly different sizes 1 second if economies of scale account for the differences in firm size with small firms ex

r d and the growth of firms empirical analysis of a panel of italian firms abstract this paper deals with the growth of firms and with their innovative activities the main hypothesis of the paper maintains that firms with a strong commitment to r d have a higher rate of growth because they succeed in the product market after a review of the related literature the paper presents an econometric analysis of the r d growth of firms relation based on a database of italian firms data on a sample of 500 firms with time series in the range 1989 1997 were drawn from the mediocredito survey of italian manufacturing descriptive analysis shows that the sales growth rate of firms with r d is higher than that of firms without r d econometric analysis is performed in two steps first we apply a panel unit root test im k pesaran h shin y 1997 testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels dae university of cambridge mimeo to verify whether the firm size significantly affects firm growth the test confirms gibrat s law that firm size has a stochastic trend second we explore whether there are variables with stochastic trends that could account for firm size according to our estimates the growth rate of firms is positively correlated with research intensity in these estimates a further interesting result is that investment in ict is not significant or shows a parameter with negative sign

the medium term effect of r d on firm growth this study analyses the effect of r d expenditure on firm employment growth in the medium term using six cross sectional waves of an innovation survey conducted in the netherlands in all sectors the analysis is focused on firms having positive r d expenditure and investigates whether higher investments in r d in proportion to firm turnover translate into higher medium term growth rates comparisons with growth on a shorter term are conducted by following the firm size evolution since the r d investment for five consecutive years and allowing for firm exit at all time terms quantile regression techniques indicate that a higher r d has a positive effect on high growers and allows a higher number of firms to be high growers still once a firm invests in r d even if a higher investment makes the firm more likely to have a very good performance it does not make it less likely to have a bad one

underreaction to fundamental information and asymmetry in mispricing between bullish and bearish markets an experimental study abstract in contrast to existing literature we implement experimental asset markets with fluctuating fundamental values following a stochastic process therefore we can measure traders behavior in both bullish and bearish markets we observe underreaction of price changes to changes in fundamental value which induces overvaluation in bearish and undervaluation in bullish markets we also find an asymmetry between markets with bullish fundamental values and those with bearish ones as the former markets show a higher degree of informational efficiency the reason for the observed underreaction lies in the relatively large volatility of the underlying fundamental value process

measuring abnormal performance do stocks overreact abstract a highly controversial issue in financial economies is whether stocks overreact in this paper we find an economically important overreaction effect even after adjusting for size and beta in portfolios formed on the basis of prior five year returns extreme prior losers outperform extreme prior winners by 5 10 per year during the subsequent five years although we find a pronounced january seasonal our evidence suggests that the overreaction effect is distinct from tax loss selling effects interestingly the overreaction effect is substantially stronger for smaller firms than for larger firms returns consistent with the overeaction hypothesis are also observed for short windows around quarterly earnings announcements

information spillovers margins scale and scope with an application to canadian life insurance a model of the production of life insurance services is developed the focus is on price setting ability and the cost advantages from size and diversity the model characterizes insurers decisions on the face value and number of policies and the number of insurance lines the model is applied to canadian life insurance firms unit revenue cost margins average from 13 per cent to 40 per cent across lines of insurance these margins emanate from information spillovers generated by marketing activities cost advantages due to size are small but are substantial from diversity returns to scale average from 1 13 to 1 40 while returns to scope from offering multiple insurance lines average from 70 per cent to 100 per cent

technological regimes and the persistence of first mover advantages this article investigates first mover and early entrant advantages in terms of market share and its growth by analyzing a unique panel data set of korean manufacturing firms specifically this article examines the existence and persistence of first mover and early entrant advantages across different technological regimes we find that these advantages are influenced by characteristics of the firms as well as of the technological regimes under which they operate in general early entry into a market benefits a firm in terms of the size and growth rate of its market share early entrants including first movers have higher market shares except in regimes with high technological opportunity and low r d appropriability however first movers are disadvantaged in terms of market share growth except in regimes with low technological opportunities and high r d appropriability we also find that firm specific competences in r d and advertising help to maintain attenuate first mover and early entrant advantages disadvantages copyright 2011 the author 2011 published by oxford university press on behalf of associazione icc all rights reserved oxford university press

the effect of short selling on bubbles and crashes in experimental spot asset markets a series of experiments illustrate that relaxing short selling constraints lowers prices in experimental asset markets but does not induce prices to track fundamentals we argue that prices in experimental asset markets are influenced by restrictions on short selling capacity and limits on the cash available for purchases restrictions on short sales in the form of cash reserve requirements and quantity limits on short positions behave in a similar manner a simulation model based on delong et al 1990 generates average price patterns that are similar to the observed data asset market bubbles are persistent deviations of prices from fundamentals to the extent that bubbles exist they can influence investment levels and the allocation of capital and thereby have considerable economic effects in recognition of their potential importance the question of the existence and pervasiveness of bubbles has been a focus of extensive empirical investigation see e g shiller 1981 blanchard and watson 1982 diba and grossman 1988 and west 1988 these studies yield mixed results regarding the empirical relevance of bubble phenomena one source of the differences in conclusions may be that because the fundamental value of the assets cannot be observed tests of the presence of bubbles are joint tests with the particular specification of the process guiding the evolution of fundamentals also being tested the availability of short selling is widely believed to make bubble formation less likely one rationale for such a belief is the notion that the cause of asset market bubbles is a constraint on the ability of traders to speculate on future downward price movements see e g miller 1977 jarrow 1980 diamond and verrecchia 1987 or figlewski and webb 1993 in the absence of short sales traders may sell only the shares in their portfolios the availability of short sales relaxes this constraint in this paper we study empirically the effect of allowing short sales on both the incidence and magnitude of market bubbles we choose a setting in which the fundamental value of the asset is clearly and unambiguously defined and known at all times and bubbles typically occur namely we use the experimental environment that smith suchanek and williams 1988 introduce while

on the ingredients for bubble formation informed traders and communication bubbles in asset markets have been documented in numerous experiments most experiments in which bubbles occur feature a declining fundamental value this feature has been criticized for being atypical of real financial markets here we experimentally study other ingredients for bubble formation that are common in such markets namely the existence of inside information and communication among traders we find that bubbles and mirages can occur if these additional ingredients are present in particular the mere possibility that some traders are better informed than others can create bubbles surprisingly communication turns out to be counterproductive for bubble formation

nonspeculative bubbles in experimental asset markets lack of common knowledge of rationality vs actual irrationality we report the results of an experiment designed to study the role of speculation in the formation of bubbles and crashes in laboratory asset markets in a setting in which speculation is not possible bubbles and crashes are observed the results suggest that the departures from fundamental values are not caused by the lack of common knowledge of rationality leading to speculation but rather by behavior that itself exhibits elements of irrationality much of the trading activity that accompanies bubble formation in markets where speculation is possible is due to the fact that there is no other activity available for participants in the experiment

the measurement of efficiency in life insurance estimates of a mixed normal gamma error model abstract this paper make three contributions to the literature on efficiency in financial services first it presents estimates of a mixed error cost frontier in which the variances of both the normal and gamma distributions can vary with firm size second it extends the literature on life insurance scale and product mix economies by incorporating and measuring x inefficiency estimates of x inefficiency range from 35 to 50 ray scale economies exist up to 15 billion in assets third comparisons of normal gamma estimates with other methods 3 thick frontier weighted least squares half normal distributions 3 demonstrate some of their pitfalls

how much information is incorporated in financial asset prices experimental evidence we propose a new estimation method and use experimental data from multiple double auction experiments in the literature to directly estimate how much information is incorporated in financial market prices we find that public information is almost completely reflected in prices but that surprisingly little private information less than 50 is incorporated in prices our estimates therefore suggest that while semi strong informational efficiency is consistent with the data financial market prices may be very far from strong form efficiency we compare our estimates with beliefs of economists surveyed at the econometric society meetings and find that economists and finance researchers alike expect market prices to reflect considerably more private information than what we estimated

r d and ceo departure date do financial incentives make ceos more opportunistic the purpose of this article is to examine whether research and development r d expenditure is biased downward because of self serving behavior of highly incentivized managers this offers an insight into the general relationship between incentives and opportunism using instrumental variables and panel data methods for a sample of high r d spenders in the uk we examine whether r d is reduced in cases of imminent departure of the ceo results show evidence for this but only for the sample above the median in intensity of stock and options in the compensation package this suggests that opportunism is enhanced by inappropriately strong incentives the main results are robust to the inclusion of a number of corporate governance variables jel classification g30 o30

efficiency of experimental security markets with insider information an application of rational expectations models the study reports on the ability of competing models of market information integration and dissemination to explain the behavior of simple laboratory markets for a one priced security returns to the security depended upon a randomly drawn state of nature some agents insiders whose identity was unknown to other agents knew the state before the markets opened with replication of market conditions the predictions of a fully revealing rational expectations model are relatively accurate prices adjusted immediately to near rational expectations prices profits of insiders were virtually indistinguishable from non insiders and efficiency levels converged to near 100 percent

establishment size and local employment growth in a sample of more than 2000 u s counties smaller average establishment size is generally associated with faster subsequent growth rates of sectoral employment both within and across sectors the estimated effects are large in magnitude and thus economically important and are consistent with several theories previously developed these findings contribute toward a more precise understanding of the role of small businesses in economic growth and labor markets

fat tails and volatility clustering in experimental asset markets abstract this paper presents results from experimental asset markets with asymmetric fundamental information we observe leptokurtic returns and a slowly decaying autocorrelation function of absolute returns in contrast to results from heterogeneous agent models hams we find that noise has no significant influence on the emergence of fat tails instead we observe a significantly positive relationship between the degree of heterogeneity of fundamental information and absolute returns which suggests that heterogeneous fundamental information is the source of fat tails with respect to volatility clustering we discover an intra periodical pattern where absolute returns decrease after the arrival of new asymmetric fundamental information

j shaped returns to timing advantage in access to information experimental evidence and a tentative explanation abstract the question of how useful information is in financial markets has been discussed for decades and is still unresolved in this paper we challenge the widely held belief that additional information is never a disadvantage we present results from experimental financial markets with asymmetrically informed traders in all treatments we conduct we find a j shaped distribution of returns while the best informed outperform all others average informed traders have significantly lower returns than the least informed this can mainly be attributed to trend reversals in the fundamental information prices in our markets do not reflect ree but rather naive trader equilibrium

testing a model of exploration and exploitation as innovation strategies we suggest a structural model that specifies firm growth as a function of firm specific parameters market specific parameters and competition for purchasing power the model distinguishes between two firm innovation strategies exploration and exploitation on the basis of a set of simulations of this model we derive a number of empirically testable hypotheses a subset of these have already found support in the empirical literature we take these as evidence in favor of the explanatory power of the model in addition we are able to derive further testable propositions on the interaction of firm demographic processes innovative behavior and market structure that go beyond the existing literature and that we suggest for further research we conclude that the approach chosen here provides a fruitful pathway for further research

is more information always better experimental financial markets with cumulative information abstract we study the value of information in financial markets by asking whether having more information always leads to higher returns we address this question in an experiment where information about an asset s intrinsic value is cumulatively distributed among traders we find that only the very best informed traders i e insiders significantly outperform less informed traders however there is a wide range of information levels from zero information to above average information levels where additional information does not yield higher returns the latter result implies that the value of additional information need not be strictly positive

proactive r d management and firm growth a punctuated equilibrium model the external environment is characterized by periods of relative stability interspersed with periods of extreme change implying that high performing firms must practice exploration and exploitation in order to survive and thrive in this paper we posit that r d expenditure volatility indicates the presence of proactive r d management and is evidence of a firm moving from exploitation to exploration over time this is consistent with a punctuated equilibrium model of r d investment where shocks are induced by reactions to external turbulence using an unbalanced panel of almost 11 000 firm years from 1997 to 2006 we show that greater fluctuations in the firm s r d expenditure over time are associated with higher firm growth developing a contextual view of the relationship between r d expenditure volatility and firm growth we find that this relationship is weaker among firms with higher levels of corporate diversification and negative among smaller firms and those in slow clockspeed industries

do liquidity constraints matter in explaining firm size and growth some evidence from the italian manufacturing industry the paper investigates whether liquidity constraints affect firm size and growth dynamics using a large longitudinal sample of italian manufacturing firms we run standard panel data gibrat regressions suitably expanded to take into account liquidity constraints proxied by cash flow scaled by firm sales moreover we characterize the statistical properties of fi rms size growth age and scaled cashflow distributions pooled data show that i liquidity constraints engender a negative statistically significant effect on growth once one controls for size ii smaller firms grow more and experience more volatile growth patterns after controlling for liquidity constraints iii the stronger liquidity constraints the more size negatively affects firm growth we find that pooled size distributions depart from log normality and growth rates are well approximated by fat tailed tent shaped laplace densities we also study the evolution of growth size distributions over time our exercises suggest that the strong negative impact of liquidity constraints on firm growth which was present in the pooled sample becomes ambiguous when one disaggregates across years finally firms who were young and strongly liquidity constrained at the beginning of the sample period grew persistently more than those who were old and weakly liquidity constrained

futures contracting and dividend uncertainty in experimental asset markets prices in experimental asset markets tend to bubble and then crash to dividend value at the end of the asset s useful life explanations for this phenomenon are 1 that participants cannot form reliable future price expectations or 2 dividend risk aversion we report the results of experiments to test these hypotheses in one experimental series a futures market is introduced so that participants can obtain information on future share prices in another series of experiments the per period dividend is known with certainty the futures market treatment reduced the bubble the certain dividend treatment had little effect on the character of bubbles with inexperienced traders copyright 1995 by university of chicago press

individual expectations limited rationality and aggregate outcomes recent studies suggest that the type of strategic environment or expectation feedback can have a large impact on whether the market can learn the rational fundamental price we present an experiment where the fundamental price experiences large unexpected shocks markets with negative expectation feedback strategic substitutes quickly converge to the new fundamental while markets with positive expectation feedback strategic complements do not converge but show underreaction in the short run and overreaction in the long run a simple evolutionary selection model of individual learning explains these differences in aggregate outcomes

rational expectations equilibrium with conditioning on past prices a mean variance example abstract the paper uses an intertemporal mean variance model of the market for a dividend paying risky asset to analyse rational expectations equilibria when all agents condition their expectations on past rather than current prices the main result shows that if the time span between successive market periods is short the market will approximate full informational efficiency arbitrarily closely yet the returns to being informed are bounded away from zero this contrasts with the grossman stiglitz proposition that markets cannot come close to informational efficiency if the acquisition of information is costly

three minimal market institutions with human and algorithmic agents theory and experimental evidence we define and examine the performance of three minimal strategic market games sell all buy sell and double auction in laboratory relative to the predictions of theory unlike open or partial equilibrium settings of most other experiments these closed exchange economies have limited amounts of cash to facilitate transactions and include feedback general equilibrium theory since it abstracts away from market mechanisms and has no role for money or credit makes no predictions about how the paths of convergence to the competitive equilibrium may differ across alternative mechanisms

informed speculation with imperfect competition competitive rational expectations models have the unsatisfactory property dubbed the schizophrenia problem by hellwig that each trader takes the equilibrium price as given despite the fact that he influences that price an examination of information aggregation in a non competitive rational expectations model using a nash equilibrium in demand functions shows that the schizophrenia problem is avoided by having each trader take into account the effect his demand has on the equilibrium price given a distribution of private information across traders prices reveal less information than in the competition equilibrium and prices no longer become fully informative in the limit as noise trading vanishes or as traders become risk neutral with small traders the model may become one of monopolistic competition not perfect competition in contrast to the competitive model a reasonable model of endogenous acquisition of costly private information is obtained even when traders are risk neutral