fixing exchange rates a virtual quest for fundamentals abstract fixed exchange rates are less volatile than floating rates but the volatility of macroeconomic variables such as money and output does not change very much across exchange rate regimes this suggests that exchange rate models based only on macroeconomic fundamentals are unlikely to be very successful it also suggests that there is no clear tradeoff between reduced exchange rate volatility and macroeconomic stability

u s bilateral trade flows and exchange risk during the floating period abstract this paper tests for real exchange rate risk effects on u s bilateral trade flows during the floating period using several new as well as previously used risk measures significant negative effects occur in five of six u s import flows and in two of six u s export flows with one export flow showing a significant positive effect these results are consistent with several previous findings for aggregate u s trade two risk measures using the forward exchange rate and assuming a time varying risk premium provide marginally more significant results than the others

when do long run identifying restrictions give reliable results many recent articles have identified behavioral disturbances in vector autoregressions by imposing restrictions on the long run effects of shocks this article demonstrates that this approach will be unreliable unless the underlying economy satisfies three types of strong restrictions although many aspects of these issues have been raised before this article draws out and illustrates the implications for inferences under the long run scheme furthermore it provides strategies for dealing with the problems

signal jamming models of fraudulent misreporting and economic prospects an experimental investigation abstract this study uses experimental methodology to examine how the frequency and magnitude with which managers commit fraud varies with economic prospects boom middle and bust the experimental design is based on signal jamming equilibrium sje models of fraud in which managers make potentially inaccurate public reports and investors bid on shares under sje managers always exaggerate reports by a fixed amount up to the maximum possible report independent of the truth shareholders can perfectly correct managers reports except for the maximum possible report in contrast the results of the experiment show four robust deviations from sje predictions 1 managers exaggerate and shareholders correct reports according to dominated mixed strategies with probabilities significantly less than one 2 managers exaggerate more frequently and by more when outcomes are poor 3 shareholders adjust low reports by less than high reports and 4 shareholders correct relatively high reports by more in booms than busts even though managers reporting strategies are invariant to economic prospects

prices output and the balance of payments in an open economy with rational expectations abstract the paper outlines an open economy version of the lucas competitive equilibrium rational expectations model it analyses the determination of output prices exports imports and the exchange rate under fixed and floating exchange rate regimes where information on the current exchange rate is used to infer the current values of foreign and domestic monetary shocks output is influenced by both foreign and domestic monetary shocks but independent of systematic foreign and domestic monetary growth under both exchange rate regimes flexible exchange rates insulate the domestic economy from systematic foreign monetary growth

real and monetary determinants of real exchange rate behavior theory and evidence from developing countries abstract this paper develops a dynamic model of real exchange rate rer behavior in developing countries a three goods economy exportables importables and non tradables is considered residents of this country hold domestic and foreign assets and there is a dual exchange rate regime there is a government that consumes importables and non tradables a distinction is made between equilibrium and disequilibrium movements of the rer the determinants of real exchange rate misalignment are studied with emphasis placed on the role of devaluations and balance of payments crises the implications of the model are tested using data for 12 developing countries the results obtained are generally favorable for the model the issue of rer stationarity is also analyzed

exchange rate volatility international trade and resource allocation a perspective on recent research abstract recent research on the effects of exchange rate volatility is discussed and directions for future research are explored the need to pay more attention to the effects of diversification and firms characteristic is emphasized it is suggested that while international risk has risen substantially since floating the differential between international and domestic risk may not this could help explain the failure of international trade to fall drastically and suggests that exchange rate volatility has been more a reflection than an independent cause of underlying instability

potential pitfalls for the purchasing power parity puzzle sampling and specification biases in mean reversion tests of the law of one price the ppp puzzle is based on empirical evidence that international price differences for individual goods loop or baskets of goods ppp appear highly persistent or even nonstationary the present consensus is these price differences have a half life that is of the order of five years at best and infinity at worst this seems unreasonable in a world where transportation and transaction costs appear so low as to encourage arbitrage and the convergence of price gaps over much shorter horizons typically days or weeks however current empirics rely on a particular choice of methodology involving i relatively low frequency monthly quarterly or annual data and ii a linear model specification in fact these methodological choices are not innocent and they can be shown to bias analysis towards findings of slow convergence and a random walk intuitively if we suspect that the actual adjustment horizon is of the order of days then monthly and annual data cannot be expected to reveal it if we suspect arbitrage costs are high enough to produce a substantial band of inaction then a linear model will fail to support convergence if the process spends considerable time random walking in that band thus when testing for ppp or loop model specification and data sampling should not proceed without consideration of the actual institutional context and logistical framework of markets

sub national tax autonomy and deficits empirical results for 27 oecd countries van rompuy p sub national tax autonomy and deficits empirical results for 27 oecd countries regional studies this paper explores the impact of the revenue mix on the budgetary performances of regions and local governments in 27 organisation for economic co operation and development oecd countries from 1995 to 2010 the main data are obtained from the oecd fiscal decentralization database that distinguishes tax income according to the degree of sub national control over own resources the empirical results point to a positive impact of autonomous tax income on sub national fiscal balances in contrast to tax sharing agreements however the positive budgetary influence of tax autonomy only prevails from a minimum share of autonomous taxes in sub national own revenue

earnings manipulation and the cost of capital the cost of capital the widespread use of accounting information by investors and financial analysts to help value stocks creates an incentive for managers to manipulate earnings in an attempt to influence short term stock price performance this paper examines the role of earnings management in affecting a firm s cost of capital using an agency model with multiple firms whose cash flows are correlated we demonstrate that the extent of earnings manipulation varies across the business cycle depending on a firm s earnings profile it can have stronger incentives to overstate its performance in good times or in bad times because of this dependence on the state of the economy earnings manipulation can influence a firm s cost of capital despite the forces of diversification

testing for long run purchasing power parity a time series analysis for the greek drachma abstract long run purchasing power parity ppp for six drachma bilateral exchange rates is tested by means of unit root and cointegration tests the results reject long run ppp

real exchange rate behavior abstract using random simulations with artificial data with identical sample characteristics to the long sample exchange rate data employed by lothian and taylor lothian j r and taylor m p 1996 the recent float from the perspective of the past two centuries journal of political economy 104 488 509 we show that standard unit root tests have extremely low power over sample sizes corresponding to the recent float the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is false is extremely low with 20 years or even 50 years of data and only reaches an acceptable level over much longer spans

product market competition incentives and fraudulent behavior abstract the present paper studies incentive provision in a model where a manager can affect the firm s stock price by exerting unobservable effort and through costly deceptive signalling and investigates the role product market competition plays in shaping shareholders trade off between inducing effort and fraud

empirical evidence on the insulation properties of fixed and flexible exchange rates abstract this paper investigates whether japanese output stability since the mid 1970s is attributable to the change in exchange rate regime or to the changing nature of underlying disturbances we decompose foreign and domestic influences on output movements using restrictions on the long run dynamics to identify the disturbances we find that the flexible exchange rate regime is more effective in insulating the economy from foreign disturbances than is the fixed rate regime however in the case of japan it is primarily the changing nature of the fundamental disturbances to the economy that is responsible for greater output stability since the mid 1970s

mechanism design with interdependent valuations efficiency ggagents valuations are interdependent if they depend on the signals or types of all agents under the implicit assumption that agents cannot observe their outcome decision payoffs previous literature has shown that with interdependent valuations and independent signals efficient design is impossible this paper shows that an efficient mechanism exists in an environment where first the final outcome e g allocation of the goods is determined then the agents observe their own outcome decision payoffs and then final transfers are made

incentive compatible regulation of a foreign owned subsidiary abstract transfer prices are administered charges for intra firm transfers of factors of production for a multinational firm transfer prices for international transfers provide the means to redistribute costs and increase global profits given variations in national tax and profit repatriation policies local regulation of a subsidiary may thus be necessary to limit the welfare costs of strategic transfer pricing prusa journal of international economics 1990 28 155 172 characterizes the welfare maximizing regulations for a monopoly subsidiary that induce the firm to report transfer prices truthfully we show however that it can be more efficient to implement regulations that encourage the firm to misrepresent its true transfer costs

the relation between earnings based measures in firm debt contracts and ceo pay sensitivity to earnings abstract i investigate how implicit incentives provided by earnings based debt covenants affect the structure of ceo compensation contracts this provides a new and unique view of how the ceo s incentives are shaped by not only his compensation contract but also debt contracts i find when debt contracts contain an earnings based covenant the ceo s pay sensitivity to earnings is muted additionally i find some evidence that pay sensitivity to earnings varies with earnings based covenant slack this study provides evidence consistent with shareholders rebalancing the ceo s earnings incentives in the presence of earnings based covenants thereby tilting incentives away from earnings performance

cost padding in regulated monopolies abstract this paper considers the regulated monopoly that pads or falsifies its costs to increase the cost reimbursement it receives from the regulator contrary to the standard literature on cost regulation the firm engages in cost reducing investment before it enters into a regulatory contract this pre contractual investment in cost reduction determines the firm type at the contracting stage the paper derives both the optimum incentive compatible falsification contract and the equilibrium type distribution with the distribution of cost types determined endogenously by the pre contractual investment choice an increase in the cost of falsification has two effects first there is a direct effect that reduces cost padding because it becomes more expensive to do so second there is an indirect effect that increases cost padding because the firm responds by choosing lower investments and lower investments are associated with more cost padding it is demonstrated that the direct effect will dominate and both expected levels of cost padding and expected costs for falsification will be reduced however the indirect effect increases real costs and despite the reduction in cost padding the net effect can reduce welfare it is determined that these conclusions are significantly different from those obtained when the distribution of cost types is exogenously fixed

multivariate cointegration analysis and the long run validity of ppp this paper tests the long run validity of ppp using johansen s multivariate cointegration methodology on exchange rates and domestic and foreign price levels monthly data covering the recent flexible exchange rate period of the dm vis a vis 15 currencies le ad to the following conclusion ppp seems to hold in the long run for s ix european currencies the pound lira norwegian krone schilling escudo and peseta however ppp has to be rejected for the united states and the canadian dollar as well as for the belgian franc and the danish krone nevertheless the authors analysis is more favorable to ppp as a long run property of exchange rates than the recent work applying the engle granger regression methodology copyright 1993 by mit press

the dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances we interpret fluctuations in gnp and unemployment as due to two types of disturbances disturbances that have a permanent effect on output and disturbances that do not we interpret the first as supply disturbances the second as demand disturbances demand disturbances have a hump shaped mirror image effect on output and unemployment the effect of supply disturbances on output increases steadily over time peaking after two years and reaching a plateau after five years

structural change and the macroeconomic effects of oil shocks empirical evidence from the united states and japan abstract this paper investigates whether the usa and japan have become better insulated from oil price disturbances due to more favorable structural conditions new production technologies allowing greater energy substitution the development of energy commodity markets reduced energy intensity of production more market oriented energy policies and so on we decompose the influences of oil shocks on real gnp growth and inflation movements in the context of a simultaneous equation model where identification is partly achieved by restricting the long run dynamics we find that oil shocks accounted for a greatly reduced fraction of real gnp growth and inflation variance in both countries primarily because of superior insulation characteristics rather than reduced importance of oil disturbances our estimates suggest that a similar percentage oil price hike would have exerted about one quarter the contractionary effect on real gnp and upward push in inflation in the 1980s compared with the previous two decades jel e31 e32 f30

purchasing power parity as a long run relation dickey fuller and stock watson tests of purchasing power parity ppp as a long run proposition are provided within the cointegration framework proposed by granger since different countries use different weights to construct price indices the traditional constraint that the coefficients on the price indices should be unity in the log linear ppp relation is relaxed the absence of a general ppp relation cannot be rejected at most a ppp relation is indicated in five out of fifteen country pairs that are examined even if a long run ppp relation exists it is not found to be useful in predicting future nominal exchange rates which is consistent with efficient speculative markets

an evaluation of the equilibrium value of the euro and its predecessors based on economic fundamentals abstractthis study presents constructed equilibrium exchange rates eers of the euro and its predecessors the european unit of account and the european currency unit as well as the euro s member states using a relative version of purchasing power parity ppp equilibrium the revealed patterns of over and undervaluation demonstrate how well suited the northern member states in contrast to the southern states were for the monetary union moreover a relative persistent overvaluation for greece and portugal suggests that their ambition to join the euro reduced their competitiveness the constructed eers of the euro suggest the european commission was able to set the initial value of the euro with a high degree of accuracy furthermore the eers indicate a successive strengthening of the fundamental value of the euro versus the u s dollar from 1999 to 2015 the analysis shows a close correlation between the deviations from equilibrium and the events of greece s sovereign debt crisis in addition the p

real exchange rate behavior the recent float from the perspective of the past two centuries using annual data spanning two centuries for dollar sterling and franc sterling real exchange rates we find strong evidence of mean reverting real exchange rate behavior using simple stationary autoregressive models estimated on prefloat data we easily outperform nonstationary real exchange rate models in dynamic forecasting exercises over the recent float such stationary univariate equations explain 60 80 percent of the in sample variation in real exchange rates although the degree of short run persistence may be high the econometric estimates imply a half life of shocks to the real exchange rate of about 6 years for dollar sterling and a little under 3 years for franc sterling

world business cycles under fixed and flexible exchange rates this paper studies the behavior of monthly industrial production indices during the recent periods of fixed and flexible exchange rate s the central conclusions are as follows industrial production indices are subject to stochastic trend growth the variances of the monthly growth rates are higher in the flexible exchange rate period than in the fixed exchange rate period and are related to the degree of openness and to national income more open economies tend to experience more variability while richer more diversified economies experience less and output movements have been correlated across countries under both exchange rate regimes and there is evidence of a world business cycle copyright 1988 by ohio state university press

sticky prices and time to equilibrium evidence from asia pacific trade related economies the theoretical relation between exchange rate and prices has been a difficult proposition to find supporting evidence despite many studies of developed economies using standard research methods the exchange rate to price relation appears to hold in the long run only a result consistent with sticky price hypothesis there is a need to add to this sticky price literature by examining more yet studied economies to this area of research this article presents results to support long run equilibrium in the asia pacific economies as being 5 years the methodology is used to group countries with high trade intensity within a region and value weight the resulting variables to test the theory in a regional context our positive finding on the long run equilibrium we believe helps in some ways to enrich the literature on the exchange rate behaviour of an important region for world trade

a new approach to forecasting exchange rates abstract building on purchasing power parity theory this paper proposes a new approach to forecasting exchange rates using the big mac data from the economist magazine our approach is attractive in three aspects firstly it uses easily available big mac prices as input these prices avoid several potential problems associated with broad price indexes such as the consumer price index used in conventional ppp studies secondly this approach provides real time exchange rate forecasts at any forecast horizon these high frequency forecasts could be appealing to those who want up to date exchange rate forecasts finally as our forecasts are obtained through a simulation procedure estimation uncertainty is made explicit in our framework that provides the entire distribution of exchange rates not just a single point estimate using exchange rates of six major currencies to illustrate the approach we compare the big mac forecasts with those derived from a random walk and the cpi and find some support for our approach especially at longer term horizons

the effects of real exchange rate risk on international trade abstract by assuming real profit maximization and uncertain prices as well as exchange rates we conclude that it is uncertain percentage changes in the real exchange rate that are risky in international trade empirical estimation of fourteen bilateral trade flows among industrialized countries finds a significant negative effect on trade quantity from such risk in a number of these cases the expectation variable has a positive effect in a larger number of cases significant price effects from the expectation variable are fewer and from risk are negligible

the real exchange rate abstract this essay concerns the real value of the u s relative to the g 10 i what are the dynamics of the fundamental determinants of the real exchange rate and its steady state value ii to what extent are the observed movements in the exchange rate from 1973 to 1988 due to the fundamentals iii how integrated are international capital markets iv how does the real exchange rate respond to a changes in the cyclically adjusted government budget deficit and to b changes in the marginal efficiency of investment

sectoral effects of exchange rate volatility on united states exports abstract we analyze the effects of real exchange rate volatility on the proportions of bilateral exports of nine categories of goods from the united states to seven major industrial countries using a fixed effect framework in six of the nine categories the volatility of the real exchange rate significantly affects the value of exports and in five of these categories the effect is positive these results are consistent with a model in which risk neutral firms increase supply of elastically demanded exports in response to an increase in the volatility of the real exchange rate

fiscal decentralization and economic growth abstract fiscal decentralization may indeed have a direct impact on economic growth but the theoretical underpinnings for this relationship remain largely undeveloped a fair summary of the empirical search for a direct relationship between fiscal decentralization and economic growth is that it remains an open question much less attention has been devoted in the literature to the indirect channels through which fiscal decentralization may affect economic growth we argue that much work remains to be done before policy advisors and decision makers can formulate and implement decentralization programs on the basis of improving the rate of economic growth

the economics of earnings manipulation and managerial compensation this article examines managerial compensation in an environment where managers may take a hidden action that affects the actual earnings of the firm when realized these earnings constitute hidden information that is privately observed by the manager who may expend resources to generate an inflated earnings report we characterize the optimal managerial compensation contract in this setting and demonstrate that contracts contingent on reported earnings cannot provide managers with the incentive both to maximize profits and to report those profits honestly as a result some degree of earnings management must be tolerated as a necessary part of an efficient agreement

justifying the first order approach to principal agent problems it is of interest to know when the incentive compatibility conditio n in principal agent problems can be replaced by the condition that the agent s expected utility be stationary in effort the mirrlees rogerson conditions do not work if the principal can observe more than one observable statistic also the mirrlees rogerson assumption that the distribution function of output is convex in the agent s action is unsatisfactory even in the context of the basi c model it is too restrictive the paper presents a suite of conditio ns that are applicable to the multistatistic case and replaces the objectionable convex distribution function assumption copyright 1988 by the econometric society

understanding the soft budget constraint we propose a clarification of the notion of a soft budget constraint a concept widely used in the analysis of socialist transitional and market economies our interpretation is broad enough to embrace most existing approaches to soft budget constraint phenomena and provides a classification of their causes and consequences in light of this interpretation we then review the theoretical literature on the subject and compare it with those on other dynamic commitment problems in economics

aggregate price indexes cointegration and tests of the purchasing power parity hypothesis abstract in this paper i show that cointegration tests of ppp using aggregate price indexes are not always robust to changes in relative prices i offer a method of gauging the importance of these effects and find them to be unimportant in recent rejections of ppp

real exchange rate effects of monetary shocks under fixed and flexible exchange rates abstract we analyze how the real exchange rate effects of monetary and real shocks depend on the exchange rate regime within a two country rational expectations model with confusion about money and real shocks the model demonstrates that the real exchange rate effect of unanticipated monetary shocks is negatively related to the variance of the domestically created money supply growth and that the effects of increasing domestic money variance on the real exchange rate are less under a fixed rate regime than under a flexible rate regime

quantifying loss averse tax manipulation this article presents evidence that loss aversion affects taxpayers as they file their annual tax returns and presents a framework for estimating the policy impact of this psychological phenomenon in my theoretical framework taxpayers manipulate the money paid to the tax authority through avoidance and evasion activities when taxpayers face the prospect of owing the tax authority money on tax day loss aversion generates the perception of a greater marginal utility of tax reduction and therefore motivates greater pursuit of tax reduction activities applying a bunching based identification strategy to u s tax return data i estimate that taxpayers facing a payment on tax day reduce their tax liability by 34 more than taxpayers owed a refund

the power to tax analytical foundations of a fiscal constitution preface 1 taxation in constitutional perspective 2 natural government a model of leviathan 3 constraints on base and rate structure 4 the taxation of commodities 5 taxation through time income taxes capital taxes and public debt 6 money creation and taxation 7 the disposition of public revenues 8 the domain of politics 9 open economy federalism and taxing authority 10 toward authentic tax reform prospects and prescriptions epilogue notes selected bibliography index

on the merit of equal pay performance manipulation and incentive setting abstract work performance is often difficult to assess thus leaving room for manipulation of commonly used metrics we created a laboratory workplace in which we can precisely assess both work performance along with manipulation activities using two independent experiments we show that whenever pay for performance is used manipulation is pervasive leading to both a waste of organizational resources and a weakening of incentives by contrast paying organizational members equally effectively deters manipulation attempts leading to higher organizational production

measuring and analysing the effects of short term volatility in real exchange rates this paper examines short term volatility in the real effective exchange rates of industrial countries and its impact on their imports it yields three conclusions first volatility has not diminished as markets have gained experience with floating exchange rates the trend appears to be in the opposite direction for some countries second exposure to short term volatility has differed among countries japan and sweden have experienced much more than most other industrial countries third volatility appears to depress the volume of international trade this third finding is consistent with results reported by cushman and by akhtar and hilton and challenges earlier findings by hooper and kohlhagen

identifying and testing models of managerial compensation this article analyses the identification and empirical content of the pure moral hazard pmh and the hybrid moral hazard hmh principal agent models the pmh model has hidden actions while the hmh model has hidden information in addition to hidden actions in both models agents are risk averse and principals are risk neutral the article derives the equilibrium restrictions from the optimal contract and uses the restrictions to show that the models have empirical content for any given risk aversion parameter the models other parameters are non parametrically point identified the risk aversion parameter and hence the model are however only partially identified management s ability to manipulate accounting reports arises endogenously within hmh models but not in all versions of pmh models we use our framework to investigate whether shareholders contract with management recognizing that accounting reports are susceptible to manipulation and therefore endogenous to the incentives offered to management the data reject all models in which accounting reports are verifiable furthermore the version of the pmh in which accounting reports can be manipulated is rejected if expected compensation is restricted to be positive

how common are intentional gaap violations estimates from a dynamic model this paper uses data on detected misstatements earnings restatements and a dynamic model to estimate the extent of undetected misstatements that violate gaap the model features a ceo who can manipulate his firm s stock price by misstating earnings i find the ceo s expected cost of misleading investors is low the probability of detection over a five year horizon is 13 91 and the average misstatement if detected results in an 8 53 loss in the ceo s retirement wealth the low expected cost implies a high fraction of ceos who misstate earnings at least once at 60 with 2 22 of ceos starting to misstate earnings in each year 2003 2010 inflation in stock prices across ceos who misstate earnings at 2 02 and inflation in stock prices across all ceos at 0 77 wealthier ceos manipulate less and the average misstatement is larger in smaller firms this article is protected by copyright all rights reserved

federalism and the soft budget constraint the government s incentives to bail out inefficient projects are determined by the trade off between political benefits and economic costs the latter depending on the decentralization of government two effects of federalism are derived first fiscal competition among local governments under factor mobility increases the opportunity costs of bailout and thus serves as a commitment device the competition effect second monetary centralization together with fiscal decentralization induces a conflict of interests and thus may harden budget constraints and reduce inflation the checks and balance effect the authors analysis is used to interpret china s recent experience of transition to a market economy copyright 1998 by american economic association

mode locking and international business cycle transmission abstract we investigate international business cycle synchronization business cycles in many countries have a tendency to synchronize with one another in what appears to be a world business cycle yet researchers find that trade and capital linkages are not strong enough for one country to drive business cycles in another country how is this world business cycle formed this study suggests that the world business cycle results from a mode locking phenomenon a nonlinear process by which weak coupling between oscillating systems tends to synchronize oscillations in the systems simulations and econometric analyses are performed to attempt to verify this hypothesis

arima and cointegration tests of ppp under fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes real exchange rates between the united states and its major trading partners were calculated for the bretton woods and flexible exchange rate periods unit root tests indicate that purchasing power parity performed poorly in both periods tests for cointegration reveal limited instances in which it is possible to estimate the deviations from ppp as an error correcting model the estimated error correcting models indicate that foreign but not u s prices responded to deviations from ppp frenkel s 1981b finding that purchasing power parity ppp worked better during the 1920s than the 1970s caused considerable controversy for example davutyan and pippenger 1985 contend that the socalled collapse of ppp is a result of an increase in the relative importance of real versus monetary shocks they argue that the 1970s as opposed to the 1920s was characterized by real supply shocks and the international coordination of monetary policies the argument is that ppp did not fail rather there was an increase in the volatility of those factors giving rise to deviations from ppp hakkio 1984 reestimated ppp over the 1920s and 1970s using cross country tests i e sure estimates to improve the efficiency of his estimates he was able to support the hypothesis that ppp worked better in the 1970s than in the 1920s on the other hand papers by adler and lehman 1983 dornbusch 1980 frenkel 1981a junge 1985 and krugman 1978 report findings contrary to the ppp hypothesis moreover kenen and rodrik 1986 find that the volatility of real exchange rates has increased throughout the flexible rate period this paper tries to shed some light on the importance and persistence of the observed deviations from purchasing power parity under alternative exchange rate systems while it is interesting to compare ppp in the 1920s versus the 1970s it is equally useful to compare the 1960s versus the 1970s and 1980s if real supply shocks and lack of monetary coordination are characteristic of the latter period ppp should perform better in the 1960s to illustrate the issues involved consider the following econometric model of relative purchasing power

purchasing power parity abstract this paper examines the purchasing power parity henceforth ppp using historical data and the cointegration approach the results indicate that the exchange rate is cointegrated with the wholesale price index wpi ratio but not with the consumer price index cpi ratio the cointegrating vector is close to 0 1 for the cpi based real exchange rates however we cannot reject the random walk hypothesis the findings caution us on the use of general price indexes that give a large weight to nontraded goods and are therefore subject to long run deviations from ppp

a complete solution to a class of principal agent problems with an application to the control of a self managed firm this paper considers a class of principal agent problems which have the following features 1 there is adverse selection because the principal ignores the value of one parameter of the agent s true characteristics 2 leaving aside the information parameter the principal s welfare as well as the agent s welfare depend on two types of variables observable to both of them the first ones possibly multidimensional are called action variable s and the second one which is one dimensional has in general the meaning of a money transfer 3 the principal is a stackelberg leader of the two person game he can commit himself to decision rules which are admissible on informational grounds he optimizes within the adequate class taking into account besides the agent s reaction one constraint which has generally the meaning of an individual rationality constraint and sometimes of a feasibility constraint the optimization is limited to the class of non stochastic mechanisms 4 the problem can also receive an alternative interpretation the principal faces a continuum of agents of unknown characteristics the distribution being known however stylized principal agent problems of this type have often been considered in the economic literature in particular the reader will later be able to recognize that the standard income tax model a la mirrlees 1971 the quality or quantity choice model of the monopolist a la mussa and rosen 1978 or maskin and riley 1982 and the model of government regulation of the private monopolist of baron and myerson 1982 all belong to

the overvaluation of renminbi undervaluation we evaluate whether the renminbi rmb is misaligned relying upon conventional statistical methods of inference a framework built around the relationship between relative price and relative output levels is used we find that once sampling uncertainty and serial correlation are accounted for there is little statistical evidence that the rmb is undervalued even though the point estimates usually indicate economically significant misalignment the result is robust to various choices of country samples and sample periods as well as to the inclusion of control variables

the influence of unrelated and related diversification on fraudulent reporting this study suggests that unrelated diversification has a positive influence on the probability of fraudulent reporting whereas related diversification has a negative influence on the probability of fraudulent reporting the strength of the influence of these corporate level strategies is contingent on the moral character of the firm unrelated diversification provides opportunity for financial innovation within the firm s internal capital market which can result in fraudulent reporting this is more likely when the moral character of the firm is driven by a conscienceless financial self interest motive as implied by the firm s contempt toward the larger community in terms of damage inflicted on the interests of people outside the firm in contrast related diversification where product divisions focus on mutual sharing and monitoring of operational activities can reduce the probability of fraudulent reporting this is more likely when constituents within the firm view themselves as moral citizens as implied by the firm s benevolence toward the larger community hence while unrelated diversification focuses the energies of managers within the firm on financial manipulation related diversification focuses these energies on productive purposes

business cycles and the exchange rate system some international evidence this paper investigates the differences in time series behavior of key economic aggregates under alternative exchange rate systems we use a postwar sample of 49 countries to compare the behavior of output consumption trade flows government consumption spending and real exchange rates under alternative exchange rate systems pegged floating and cooperative systems such as the ems we then examine evidence from two particular episodes involving canada and ireland of changes in the exchange rate system aside from greater variability of real exchange rates under flexible than under pegged nominal exchange rate systems we find little evidence of systematic differences in the behavior of macroeconomic aggregates or international trade flows under alternative exchange rate systems these results are of interest because a large class of theoretical models implies that the nominal exchange rate system has important effects on a number of macroeconomic quantities

competition for talent under performance manipulation abstract we study the effects of introducing competition for ceos assuming that the talent of ceos is not observable and that they can misreport their performance without competition for talent firms maximize their profits by offering inefficiently low powered incentive contracts competition for talent removes those inefficiencies but it leads to excessively high powered incentive contracts causing efficiency losses that can be more severe than the inefficiencies that competition mitigates if misreporting is not a concern however then competition for talent has unambiguously positive effects on efficiency

designing tax policy in federalist economies an overview abstract the emerging economic federations of the european union russia and south africa along with the established federations in australia canada and the united states confront the task of designing the institutions for federal fiscal policy this paper reviews the literature on the design of tax policy in federalist economies we conclude that taxation by lower level governments can lead to significant economic inefficiencies and inequities the usual assignment view of federalis recommends central government policies for example resident based taxation or grants in aid to correct these failures these recommendations assume that the central government will act as a benevolent social planner the political economy view of federalism suggests that this assumption is in error and that additional federalist institutions must be considered alternative legislative structures and constitutional rules are considered

the impact of exchange rate deviations from relative ppp equilibrium on the u s demand for foreign equities abstract applying fixed effects panel data this study investigates the impact of u s dollar exchange rate movements during different exchange rate states overvaluation and undervaluation on the monthly real gross and real net purchases of foreign equities by u s residents over the post plaza accord period the foreign equities come from 22 developed and 25 developing countries previous research has posited two alternative hypotheses regarding the relationship between exchange rates and foreign investment these are the wealth effect and the profit oriented effect the evidence herein suggests that these two hypotheses coexist we find robust evidence for a negative relationship between the exchange rate movements of an undervalued u s dollar and the demand for foreign equities for developed countries the wealth effect dominates the profit oriented effect when the u s dollar is overvalued while for developing countries the profit oriented effect dominates the wealth effect the results emphasize the importance of considering exchange rate states derived from a relative ppp equilibrium when analyzing u s allocations to foreign equities the findings with respect to the macroeconomic control variables are mainly in agreement with the predictions of international financial theory some of the results however disappear or become inconclusive for the period after the bankruptcy of lehman brothers this may be explained by the increased uncertainty in international financial markets following this unprecedented event the findings are robust with respect to different constructed equilibrium exchange rates

bilateral trade flows the linder hypothesis and exchange risk bilateral trade flows are used to examine the linder hypothesis and the effect of exchange rate variability in a gra vity type trade model derived from an underlying demand and supply mo del a behavioral model is used to justify examining these issues joi ntly the model performs well empirically using a sample of seventeen countries for the period 1974 82 the authors find overwhelming supp ort for the linder hypothesis and this version of the gravity model moreover they find strong support for the hypothesis that increased exchange rate variability affects bilateral trade flows copyright 1987 by mit press

what does ceos pay for performance reveal about shareholders attitude toward earnings overstatements if overstatements were a symptom of the agency conflict pay for performance sensitivities should have increased in response to the additional penalties for misreporting imposed by sox our finding of their decrease is inconsistent with the view that overstatements were an unintended consequence of incentive pay prior to 2002 to corroborate our interpretation we show that i ceo pay for performance sensitivities are higher among firms whose shareholders stand to benefit from overstatements ii this cross sectional relationship weakens significantly after sox and iii the within firm decrease in pay for performance sensitivity is most pronounced among firms with high pre sox shareholder benefits from overstatements

long run purchasing power parity during the recent float abstract this paper examines the relevance of long run purchasing power parity ppp which allows for measurement errors during the recent floating exchange rate period previous empirical studies generally fail to find support for long run ppp over this period in this paper in this paper the cointegration property of exchange rates and prices is examined using maximum likelihood procedure and we find significant evidence favorable to long run ppp further tests for symmetry and proportionality indicate that these two conditions are not generally with the data the results support the hypothesis of long run ppp with measurement errors in prices

are you a good employee or simply a good guy influence costs and contract design we develop a principal agent model with a moral hazard problem in which the principal has access to a hard signal the level of output and a soft behavioral signal the supervision signal about the agent s level of effort in our model the agent can initiate influence activities and manipulate the behavioral signal these activities are costly for the principal as they detract the agent from the productive task we show that the agent s ability to manipulate the behavioral signal leads to low powered incentives and increases the cost of implementing the efficient equilibrium as a result interestingly the fact that manipulation activities entail productivity losses may lead to the design of influence free contracts that deter manipulation and lead to high powered incentives this result implies that the optimal contract and whether manipulation is tolerated in equilibrium or not depends on the magnitude of the productivity based influence costs we show that it may be optimal for the principal not to supervise the agent even if the cost of supervision is arbitrarily low

optimal contracts under costly state falsification we examine an exchange economy with two agents one risk neutral with a certain endowment and a second risk averse with a random endowment the realization of the endowment is public but can be falsified by the second agent at a cost for a broad class of falsification cost functions the optimal no falsification contract is noncontingent on a left hand interval and strictly increasing with a slope strictly less than one on a right hand interval under a mild further restriction optimal no falsification contracts are in addition piece wise linear optimal contracts may in general require falsifying the state but for a set of the highest endowment realizations there is no falsification we find simple conditions under which the optimal contract is a no falsification contract the model has applications that include financial insurance and employment contracts and tax policy

fixed exchange rates and trade abstract a classic argument for a fixed exchange rate is its promotion of trade empirical support for this however is mixed while one branch of research consistently shows a small negative effect of exchange rate volatility on trade another more recent branch presents evidence of a large positive impact of currency unions on trade this paper helps resolve this disconnect our results which use a new data based classification of fixed exchange rate regimes show a large significant effect of a fixed exchange rate on bilateral trade between a base country and a country that pegs to it these results suggest an economically relevant role for exchange rate regimes in trade determination since a significant amount of world trade is conducted between countries with fixed exchange rates

fiscal decentralization and intergovernmental fiscal relations a cross country analysis abstract fiscal decentralization consists primarily of devolving revenue sources and expenditure functions to lower tiers of government by bringing the government closer to the people fiscal decentralization is expected to boost public sector efficiency as well as accountability and transparency in service delivery and policy making decentralization also entails greater complexity in intergovernmental fiscal relations and coordination failures in fiscal relations are likely to have a bearing on fiscal positions nationally and subnationally evidence provided in this paper for a sample of 30 countries suggests that coordination failures in intergovernmental fiscal relations are likely to result in a deficit bias in decentralized policy making particularly in the case of developing countries which may not meet important requirements for successful decentralization

purchasing power parity price indices and exchange rate forcasts abstract this paper addresses the issue of using aggregate price indices for purchasing power parity ppp tests and the fitness of ppp as a model for exchange rate forecasting compared with consumer price index cpi and wholesale price index wpi the price index of traded goods tpi appears to be a more appropriate price index for both ppp tests and exchange rate forecasting it performs better in the tests and provides superior exchange rate forecasts both within and out of sample while the half life of the estimated deviations from ppp is about two years for the cpi and wpi based real exchange rates it is only one year for the tpi based real exchange rates

the theory of moral hazard and unobservable behaviour part i principal agent models are studied in which outcomes conditional on the agent s action are uncertain and the agent s behaviour therefore unobservable for a model with bounded agent s utility conditions are given under which the first best equilibrium can be approximated arbitrarily closely by contracts relating payment to observable outcomes for general models it is shown that the solution may not always be obtained by using the agent s first order conditions as constraint general conditions of lagrangean type are given for problems in which contracts are finite dimensional 1 the moral hazard situation

is there a link between executive equity incentives and accounting fraud we compare executive equity incentives of firms accused of accounting fraud by the securities and exchange commission sec during the period 1996 2003 with two samples of firms not accused of fraud we measure equity incentives in a variety of ways and employ a battery of empirical tests we find no consistent evidence that executive equity incentives are associated with fraud these results stand in contrast to assertions by policy makers that incentives from stock based compensation and the resulting equity holdings increase the likelihood of accounting fraud

accounting for u s real exchange rate changes this study measures the proportion of u s real exchange rate movements that can be accounted for by movements in the relative prices of nontraded goods the decomposition is done at all possible h

overstatement and rational market expectation abstract when an agent overstates his her true performance a rational market can still correctly guess the true performance this paper shows however that such rational market expectation and a profit maximizing principal can exacerbate the lack of productive effort by the agent

chinese trade price and yuan s valuation this paper studies how the major economic events would have affected chinese yuan s nominal exchange rate against us dollar from 1989 to 2013 the traditional average treatment effect estimation methods cannot be used to consistently estimate yuan s pegged exchange rate we develop a new estimation strategy by combining a novel panel data method proposed by hisao ching and wan and the purchasing power parity theory based on this new estimation strategy we find that during the period of pegging to us dollar chinese yuan were undervalued before the 1997 asian financial crisis the pegged exchange rate regime starting from january 1994 made the yuan undervalued by 2 62 china s accession to wto caused yuan undervalued by 36 60 after the reform of chinese exchange rate policy in july 2005 the undervaluation of the yuan was reduced to only 0 76 yuan was undervalued again by 20 43 because of 2008 china s economy stimulus package the policy reform in june 2010 made yuan overvalued by 14 40 we conclude that chinese fixed exchange rate policy indeed undervalued the yuan especially after its accession to wto the recent reforms of chinese exchange rate policy made progresses in re evaluating the yuan

corporate tax evasion with agency costs this paper examines corporate tax evasion in the context of the contractual relationship between the shareholders of a firm and a tax manager who possesses private information regarding the extent of legally permissible reductions in taxable income and who may also undertake illegal tax evasion using a costly state falsification framework we characterize formally the optimal incentive compensation contract for the tax manager and in particular how the form of that contract changes in response to alternative enforcement policies imposed by the taxing authority the optimal contract may adjust to offset at least partially the effect of sanctions against illegal evasion and we find a new and policy relevant non equivalence result penalties imposed on the tax manager are more effective in reducing evasion than are those imposed on shareholders

a panel data approach for program evaluation measuring the benefits of political and economic integration of hong kong with mainland china summary we propose a simple to implement panel data method to evaluate the impacts of social policy the basic idea is to exploit the dependence among cross sectional units to construct the counterfactuals the cross sectional correlations are attributed to the presence of some unobserved common factors however instead of trying to estimate the unobserved factors we propose to use observed data we use a panel of 24 countries to evaluate the impact of political and economic integration of hong kong with mainland china we find that the political integration hardly had any impact on the growth of the hong kong economy however the economic integration has raised hong kong s annual real gdp by about 4 copyright 2011 john wiley sons ltd

is honesty the best policy curtailing insurance fraud through optimal incentive contracts an incentive contracting approach is used to characterize optimal contracts when insured individuals possess private information about their losses and are able to misrepresent permanently their loss magnitudes by engaging in the falsification of claims we demonstrate that efficient agreements necessarily induce some falsification but that the extent of such claims inflation is mitigated partially by an indemnification schedule that overcompensates small losses while overpaying larger ones the differential costs of generating insurance claims through falsification provide an avenue by which the heterogencous insureds can credibly signal their underlying losses and are exploited in an optimal contract to implement loss contingent insurance payments

an empirical examination of long run purchasing power parity using cointegration techniques this paper presents an empirical analysis of long run purchasing power parity ppp for five major exchange rates using recently developed econometric techniques on the cointegration of economic time series our empirical results are extremely unfavourable to the ppp hypothesis as a long run equilibrium condition even with an allowance made for measurement error and or tranportation costs in particular we are unable to reject the hypothesis of non cointegration of the exchange rate and relative prices for any of the countries concerned far from finding a stable long run proportionality between exchange rates and relative prices our results therefore suggest that they tend to drift apart without bound

testing the relative purchasing power parity hypothesis the case of korea abstractthis study examines the relative purchasing power parity ppp hypothesis using the data from the korean won us dollar and the korean won japanese yen foreign exchange markets we extract proxies for inflation from stock market returns of korea the united states and japan based on the method used by chowdhry roll and xia in 2005 we explicitly test the relative ppp hypothesis in light of the short run price volatility using monthly bimonthly and quarterly data from 1 january 1998 to 31 december 2012 our findings suggest that the empirical test results from the entire sample period do not support the relative ppp hypothesis however the results from the sample period excluding the asian financial crisis period show that the relative ppp hypothesis holds for the korean won us dollar market with a moderate magnitude of inflation impact but not for the korean won japanese yen market abrupt changes in exchange rates during the crisis period may have affected the relationship between inflation an