the impact of uncertainty shocks in emerging economies abstract a recent strand of research proposes that sudden jumps in uncertainty generate rapid drops and recoveries in real macroeconomic variables that drive the business cycle using an empirical model we find substantial heterogeneity in reactions to these shocks across countries in comparison to the u s and other developed countries emerging economies suffer much more severe falls in investment and private consumption following an exogenous uncertainty shock take significantly longer to recover and do not experience a subsequent overshoot in activity we provide evidence that the dynamics of investment and consumption are correlated with the depth of financial markets we control for the potential role of a credit channel and estimate that it can account for up to one half of the increased fall in investment generated by uncertainty shocks among emerging economies with less developed financial markets in this context monetary and fiscal policy actions that alleviate the impact of credit constraints facing firms may reduce the impact of uncertainty shocks in these economies

currency risk factors in a recursive multicountry economy we study a risk sharing model featuring multiple countries with recursive prefer ences defined over bundles of consumption goods whose supply is subject to both global and local short and long run shocks first we quantify the extent of con tagion and insurance possibilities as we vary the number of countries in the econ omy second we introduce persistent heterogeneous exposure to global long run news shocks and analyze the properties of several carry trade strategies in the context of our model lustig et al 2011 hml fx and della corte et al 2013 hml na the average excess returns of these strategies can be rationalized in a recursive risk sharing scheme with long run global shocks to output growth

investment prices and exchange rates some basic facts this paper documents four basic facts about investment goods and investment prices first investment has a very significant nontradable component in the form of construction services second distributions services wholesaling retailing and transportation are much less important for investment than for consumption third the import content of investment is much larger than that of consumption finally in the aftermath of three large devaluations the rate of exchange rate pass through is perhaps not surprisingly highest for imported equipment and lowest for construction services jel f41

a unified approach to bermudan and barrier options under stochastic volatility models with jumps abstract many financial assets such as currencies commodities and equity stocks exhibit both jumps and stochastic volatility which are especially prominent in the market after the financial crisis some strategic decision making problems also involve american style options in this paper we develop a novel fast and accurate method for pricing american and barrier options in regime switching jump diffusion models by blending regime switching models and markov chain approximation techniques in the fourier domain we provide a unified approach to price bermudan american options and barrier options under general stochastic volatility models with jumps the models considered include heston hull white stein stein scott the 3 2 model and the recently proposed 4 2 model and the hypergeometric model with general jump amplitude distributions in the return process applications include the valuation of discretely monitored contracts as well as continuously monitored contracts common in the foreign exchange markets numerical results are provided to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method

the american put option valued analytically an analytic solution to the american put problem is derived herein the hedge ratio and other derivatives of the solution are presented the formula derived implies an exact duplicating portfolio for the american put consisting of discount bonds and stock sold short the formula is extended to consider put options on stocks paying cash dividends a polynomial expression is developed for evaluating these formulae values and hedge ratios for puts on both dividend and nondividend paying stocks are calculated tabulated and compared with values derived by numerical integration and binomial approximation as with european options evaluating an analytic formula is more efficient than approximating the stock price process or the partial differential equation by binomial or finite difference methods finally applications of this american put solution are discussed

measuring global and country specific uncertainty abstract motivated by the literature on the capital asset pricing model we decompose the uncertainty of a typical forecaster into common and idiosyncratic uncertainty using individual survey data from the consensus forecasts over the period of 1989 2014 we develop monthly measures of macroeconomic uncertainty covering 45 countries and construct a measure of global uncertainty as the weighted average of country specific uncertainties our measure captures perceived uncertainty of market participants and derives from two components that are shown to exhibit strikingly different behavior common uncertainty shocks produce the large and persistent negative response in real economic activity whereas the contributions of idiosyncratic uncertainty shocks are negligible

international risk cycles abstract recent work in international finance suggests that exchange rate puzzles can be accounted for if 1 aggregate uncertainty is time varying and 2 countries have heterogeneous exposures to a world aggregate shock we embed these features in a standard two country real business cycle framework and calibrate the model to equity risk premia in low and high interest rates countries unlike traditional real business cycle models our model generates volatile exchange rates a large currency forward premium excess comovement of asset prices relative to quantities and an imperfect correlation between relative consumption growth and exchange rates our model implies however that high interest rate countries have smoother quantities equity returns and interest rates than low interest rate countries contrary to the data

the analytic valuation of american options no analytic solutions exists for the valuation of american options written on futures contracts and foreign currencies for which early exercise may be optimal this article formulates the american option valuation problem in economically and mathematically meaningful ways this enables us to derive valuation formulas for american options the properties associated with the optimal exercise boundary are examined and a numerical technique to implement the valuation formulas is presented article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

reference dependent preferences team relocations and major league expansion abstract professional sports teams receive large subsidies some in excess of 500 million from local governments for the construction of new facilities these subsidies cannot be explained by tangible economic benefits and estimates of the value of intangible benefits also fall short of typical subsidies in this paper we incorporate fans reference dependent preferences into a model of the bargaining between local governments and teams the model predicts that teams use relocation threats to exploit fans utility loss from team departures a negative deviation from the status quo to extract large subsidies from local governments fans loss aversion provides an explanation of the current team distribution and observed team relocation and league expansion decisions in north america the model also highlights the importance of anti trust exemptions of the leagues in creating credible relocation threats for existing teams

did the ems reduce the cost of capital we propose a dynamic arbitrage pricing theory apt multi factor model with time varying volatility for currency bond and stock returns for ten european countries over 1977 97 we exploit the cross sectional dimension of the model to construct world portfolios which when added to the original list of assets allow us to develop simple consistent methods of estimation and testing our results reject the implicit asset pricing restrictions and suggest decreases in idiosyncratic exchange rate risk tend to lower the cost of capital although the effect is small we assess the potential gains from increased stock market integration

an inverse finite element method for pricing american options abstract the pricing of american options has been widely acknowledged as a much more intriguing problem in financial engineering in this paper a convergency proved ife inverse finite element approach is introduced to the field of financial engineering to price american options for the first time without involving any linearization process at all the current approach deals with the nonlinearity of the pricing problem through an inverse approach numerical results show that the ife approach is quite accurate and efficient and can be easily extended to multi asset or stochastic volatility pricing problems the key contribution of this paper to the literature is that we have managed to provide a comprehensive convergence analysis for the ife approach including not only an error estimate of the adopted discrete scheme but also the convergence of the adopted iterative scheme which ensures that our numerical solution does indeed converge to the exact one of the original nonlinear system

the baseball players labor market reconsidered the owners wanted as few players as possible to become free agents i wasn t entirely opposed to this i didn t want as many free agent players as to flood the market what would likely produce the optimal mix of supply and demand with no history offree agent movement to study it was impossible to know which requirement would be best my gut feeling and i stress feeling was thatfive years would be better and if the choice lay between four and six years i would choose the latter the owners committee proposed six years i suggested five

the international effects of global financial uncertainty shocks abstract in this paper we study the impact of sudden rises in global financial uncertainty on small open economies to this end we extract a global factor from the realised volatilities of about 1000 risky asset returns from around the world we then analyse how shocks to this factor affect economic activity in 44 advanced and emerging small open economies by estimating local projections in a panel regression framework we find that shocks increasing global financial uncertainty have adverse consequences on output trade and unemployment while their impact on nominal variables is more heterogeneous across countries furthermore the effects are more severe in countries with a higher degree of trade or financial openness higher levels of vulnerabilities weaker institutions or during economic downturns

uncertainty shocks as second moment news shocks we provide evidence on the relationship between aggregate uncertainty and the macroeconomy identifying uncertainty shocks using methods from the news shocks literature the analysis finds that innovations in realized stock market volatility are robustly followed by contractions while shocks to forward looking uncertainty have no significant effect on the economy moreover investors have historically paid large premia to hedge shocks to realized but not implied volatility a model in which fundamental shocks are skewed left can match those facts aggregate volatility matters but it is the realization of volatility rather than uncertainty about the future that has been associated with declines

our fans in the north the demand for british rugby league this paper reports the results of estimating a single equation model of an attendance function for british rugby league over the seasons 1982 83 to 1990 91 the data are panel data covering virtually every team which played in the two division league over the nine year time period diagnostic tests indicate that the appropriate model is a semilog random effects model where the dependent variable is league attendance weighted by population the major results are as follows there are significant positive relationships between league attendance and various measures of team success although the direction of causality is moot team quality as proxied by the two divisions and the economic quality of team location as proxied by the unemployment rate but there is no discernible relationship between league attendance and either success in nonleague trophy competitions or measures of exceptional player quality

learning asymmetries in real business cycles when a boom ends the downturn is generally sharp and short when growth resumes the boom is more gradual our explanation rests on learning about productivity when agents believe productivity is high they work invest and produce more more production generates higher precision information when the boom ends precise estimates of the slowdown prompt decisive reactions investment and labor fall sharply when growth resumes low production yields noisy estimates of recovery noise impedes learning slows recovery and makes booms more gradual than downturns a calibrated model generates growth rate asymmetry similar to macroeconomic aggregates fluctuations in agents forecast precision match observed countercyclical errors of forecasters

a moving boundary approach to american option pricing this paper describes a method to solve the free boundary problem that arises in the pricing of american options most numerical methods for american option pricing exploit the representation of the option price as the expected pay off under the risk neutral measure and calculate the price for a given time to expiration and stock price they do not solve the related free boundary problem explicitly the advantage of solving the free boundary problem is that it provides the entire price function as well as the optimal exercise boundary explicitly our approach which we term the moving boundary approach is based on using a boundary guess and the value associated with the guess to construct an improved boundary it is also shown that on iteration the sequence of boundaries converge monotonically to the optimal exercise boundary examples illustrating the convergence behavior as well as discussions providing insight into the method are also presented finally we compare runtimes and speeds with other methods that solve the free boundary problem and compute the optimal boundaries explicitly like the front fixing method penalty method method based on the integral representations and the method by brennan and schwartz 1977 the valuation of american put options journal of finance 32 2 449 462

international business cycles world region and country specific factors the paper investigates the common dynamic properties of business cycle fluctuations across countries regions and the world we employ a bayesian dynamic latent factor model to estimate common components in macroeconomic aggregates output consumption and investment in a 60 country sample covering seven regions of the world the results indicate that a common world factor is an important source of volatility for aggregates in most countries providing evidence for a world business cycle we find that region specific factors play only a minor role in explaining fluctuations in economic activity we also document similarities and differences across regions countries and aggregates jel f41 e32 c11 c32

convergence and biases of monte carlo estimates of american option prices using a parametric exercise rule abstract this paper presents an algorithm for pricing american options using monte carlo simulation the method is based on using a parametric representation of the early exercise decision it is shown that as long as this parametric representation subsumes all relevant stopping times error bounds can be constructed using two different estimates one which is biased low and one which is biased high both are consistent and asymptotically unbiased estimators of the true option value results for high dimensional american options confirm the viability of the numerical procedure the convergence results of the paper shed light into the biases present in other algorithms proposed in the literature

evaluation of american option prices in a path integral framework using fourier hermite series expansions abstract in this paper we review the path integral technique which has wide applications in statistical physics and relate it to the backward recursion technique which is widely used for the evaluation of derivative securities we formulate the pricing of equity options both european and american using the path integral framework discretising in the time variable and using expansions in fourier hermite series for the continuous representation of the underlying asset price we show how these options can be evaluated in the path integral framework for american options the solution technique facilitates the accurate determination of the early exercise boundary as part of the solution additionally the continuous representation of the state variable allows the relatively accurate and efficient evaluation of the option prices and the delta hedge ratio

measuring the natural rate of interest international trends and determinants abstract u s estimates of the natural rate of interest the real short term interest rate that would prevail absent transitory disturbances have declined dramatically since the start of the global financial crisis for example estimates using the laubach williams 2003 model indicate the natural rate in the united states fell to close to zero during the crisis and has remained there into 2016 explanations for this decline include shifts in demographics a slowdown in trend productivity growth and global factors affecting real interest rates this paper applies the laubach williams methodology to the united states and three other advanced economies canada the euro area and the united kingdom we find that large declines in trend gdp growth and natural rates of interest have occurred over the past 25 years in all four economies these country by country estimates are found to display a substantial amount of comovement over time suggesting an important role for global factors in shaping trend growth and natural rates of interest

ethnicity productivity and salary player compensation and discrimination in the national hockey league the paper considers the impact of potential minority francophone american european ethnic language culture discrimination on salary determination in the national hockey league using player salary data for the 1989 90 season a regression model of salary determination is constructed which includes variables measuring productivity skills market structure and allows for several ethnic influences including minority discrimination ethnically shaped consumer preferences and reservation wages the basic conclusion is that wages are principally determined by productivity and market structure and the only evidence of discrimination is found in the ethnically influenced consumer preference of american as opposed to canadian teams

rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets this paper argues that globalization may promote contagion by weakening incentives for gathering costly information and by strengthening incentives for imitating arbitrary market portfolios in the presence of short selling constraints the gain of gathering information at a fixed cost may diminish as markets grow moreover if a portfolio manager s marginal cost for yielding below market returns exceeds the marginal gain for above market returns there is a range of optimal portfolios in which all investors imitate arbitrary market portfolios and this range widens as the market grows numerical simulations suggest that these frictions can have significant implications for capital flows in emerging markets

uncertainty financial frictions and nominal rigidities a quantitative investigation are uncertainty shocks a major source of business cycle fluctuations this paper studies the effect of a mean preserving shock to the variance of aggregate total factor productivity macro uncertainty and to the dispersion of entrepreneurs idiosyncratic productivity micro uncertainty in a financial accelerator dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with sticky prices it explores the different mechanisms through which uncertainty shocks are propagated and amplified the time series properties of macro and micro uncertainty are estimated using u s aggregate and firm level data respectively while surprise increases in micro uncertainty have a larger impact on total output than macro uncertainty these can only account for a small but nontrivial share of output volatility

slow to hire quick to fire employment dynamics with asymmetric responses to news this paper studies models of rms that adjust asymmetrically to private signals and uses census data to assess predictions at the establishment level when rms hiring decisions respond more to bad signals than to good signals both aggregate volatility and the cross sectional dispersion of employment growth are countercyclical responses to measured technology shocks and the time series behavior of skewness are consistent with the mechanism even in the absence of physical adjustment costs and with homoskedastic shocks to fundamentals information processing under knightian uncertainty generates asymmetric adjustment

estimating quadratic variation using realized variance this paper looks at some recent work on estimating quadratic variation using realised variance rv that is sums of m squared returns this econometrics has been motivated by the advent of the common availability of high frequency financial return data when the underlying process is a semimartingale we recall the fundamental result that rv is a consistent as m estimator of quadratic variation qv we express concern that without additional assumptions it seems difficult to give any measure of uncertainty of the rv in this context the position dramatically changes when we work with a rather general sv model which is a special case of the semimartingale model then qv is integrated variance and we can derive the asymptotic distribution of the rv and its rate of convergence these results do not require us to specify a model for either the drift or volatility functions although we have to impose some weak regularity assumptions we illustrate the use of the limit theory on some exchange rate data and some stock data we show that even with large values of m the rv is sometimes a quite noisy estimator of integrated variance

financial development and the instability of open economies this paper introduces a framework for analyzing the role of financial factors as a source of instability in small open economies our basic model is a dynamic open economy model with a tradeable good produced with capital and a country specific factor we also assume that firms face credit constraints with the constraint being tighter at a lower level of financial development a basic implication of this model is that economies at an intermediate level of financial development are more unstable than either very developed or very underdeveloped economies this is true both in the sense that temporary shocks have large and persistent effects and also in the sense that these economies can exhibit cycles thus countries that are going through a phase of financial development may become more unstable in the short run similarly full capital account liberalization may destabilize the economy in economies at an intermediate level of financial development phases of growth with capital inflows are followed by collapse with capital outflows on the other hand foreign direct investment does not destabilize

why does bad news increase volatility and decrease leverage a recent literature shows how an increase in volatility reduces leverage however in order to explain pro cyclical leverage it assumes that bad news increases volatility that is it assumes an inverse relationship between first and second moments of asset returns this paper suggests a reason why bad news is more often than not associated with higher future volatility we show that in a model with endogenous leverage and heterogeneous beliefs agents have the incentive to invest mostly in technologies that become more volatile in bad times agents choose these technologies because they can be leveraged more during normal times together with the existing literature this explains pro cyclical leverage the result also gives a rationale to the pattern of volatility smiles observed in stock options since 1987 finally the paper presents for the first time a dynamic model in which an asset is endogenously traded simultaneously at different margin requirements in equilibrium

macroeconomic uncertainty indices based on nowcast and forecast error distributions abstract we propose new indices to measure macroeconomic uncertainty the indices measure how unexpected a realization of a representative macroeconomic variable is relative to the unconditional fo

fluctuations in uncertainty this review article tries to answer four questions i what are the stylized facts about uncertainty over time ii why does uncertainty vary iii do fluctuations in uncertainty matter and iv did higher uncertainty worsen the great recession of 2007 2009 on the first question both macro and micro uncertainty appears to rise sharply in recessions on the second question the types of exogenous shocks like wars financial panics and oil price jumps that cause recessions appear to directly increase uncertainty and uncertainty also appears to endogenously rise further during recessions on the third question the evidence suggests uncertainty is damaging for short run investment and hiring but there is some evidence it may stimulate longer run innovation finally in terms of the great recession the large jump in uncertainty in 2008 potentially accounted for about one third of the drop in gdp

location and survival in the national hockey league a model of professional sport franchises is introduced and used to explore the locational and other determi nants of profitability particular attention is paid to the effect of location on attendance market power and long run team quality whe n estimated using data for the national hockey league in 1977 78 the model indicates that location has an effect on each of these and tha t their combined effect on profitability is effective in explaining p rior and subsequent decisions concerning league expansion and franchi se relocation a number of other matters are also addressed includin g league arguments for antitrust exemption and league policies to res trict expansion copyright 1988 by blackwell publishing ltd

on going south the economics of survival and relocation of small market nhl franchises in canada this paper considers the issue of team viability and professional franchise relocation a problem common to all major sports leagues in north america specifically using the national hockey league in the 1990s as the analytical vehicle the proposition that the viability of canadian small market franchises smf is in doubt because of a combination of inadequate revenue due to the quality of their locations and escalating salary cost is examined using game by game data for the 1989 90 season revenue costs and profits by team were estimated and it was concluded that canadian smf are indeed an endangered species several alternatives which might rectify the problem are considered revenue sharing salary caps public subsidy but none are as attractive or as realistic as relocating south to us cities the behaviour of smf in the 1990s is consistent with this prognosis

assessing international commonality in macroeconomic uncertainty and its effects this paper uses a large vector autoregression var to measure international macroeconomic uncertainty and its effects on major economies using two datasets one with gdp growth rates for 19 industrialized countries and the other with a larger set of macroeconomic indicators for the u s euro area and u k using basic factor model diagnostics we first provide evidence of significant commonality in international macroeconomic volatility with one common factor accounting for strong comovement across economies and variables we then turn to measuring uncertainty and its effects with a large var in which the error volatilities evolve over time according to a factor structure the volatility of each variable in the system reflects time varying common global components and idiosyncratic components in this model global uncertainty is allowed to contemporaneously affect the macroeconomies of the included nations both the levels and volatilities of the included variables in this setup uncertainty and its effects are estimated in a single step within the same model our estimates yield new measures of international macroeconomic uncertainty and indicate that uncertainty shocks surprise increases lower gdp and many of its components adversely affect labor market conditions lower stock prices and in some economies lead to an easing of monetary policy

international real business cycles we ask whether a two country real business cycle model can account simultaneously for domestic and international aspects of business cycles with this question in mind we document a number of discrepancies between theory and data the most striking discrepancy concerns the correlations of consumption and output across countries in the data outputs are generally more highly correlated across countries than consumptions in the model we see the opposite

precautionary saving in the small and in the large the theory of precautionary saving is shown to be isomorphic to the arrow pratt theory of risk aversion making possible the application of a large body of knowledge about risk aversion to precautionary saving and more generally to the theory of optimal choice under risk in particular a measure of the strength of the precautionary saving motive analogous to the arrow pratt measure of risk aversion is used to establish a number of new propositions about precautionary saving and to give a new interpretation of the dreze modigliani substitution effect copyright 1990 by the econometric society