macroeconomic experiences and risk taking of euro area households abstract this paper studies to what extent the experiences of households shape their willingness to take financial risks it starts by extending the u s evidence of malmendier and nagel 2011 to euro area households and shows that experienced stock market returns matter in a statistically significant and economically substantial fashion better experiences make households more willing to take financial risk and increase their stock market participation even if euro area households seem to be discounting the past more quickly than those in the united states subsequently the paper moves on to show that there are additional effects stemming from the experience of stock market crashes which are different from those of stock market booms crashes stay in household s memory and lower stock market participation whereas booms raise participation but their effect eventually fades out furthermore households in countries that witnessed a particularly severe 2008 stock market crash give substantially more weight to the most recent experience suggesting that in these countries an even more pronounced underinvestment in the stock market should be expected in the years to come

will business cycles in the euro area converge a critical survey of empirical research this survey of business cycle synchronization in the european monetary union focuses on two issues have business cycles become more similar and which factors drive business cycle synchronization we conclude that business cycles in the euro area have gone through periods of both convergence and divergence still there is quite some evidence that during the 1990s business cycle synchronization in the euro area has increased higher trade intensity is found to lead to more synchronization but the point estimates vary widely the evidence for other factors affecting business cycle synchronization is very mixed

is tiger woods loss averse persistent bias in the face of experience competition and high stakes although experimental studies have documented systematic decision errors many leading scholars believe that experience competition and large stakes will reliably extinguish biases we test for the presence of a fundamental bias loss aversion in a high stakes context professional golfers performance on the pga tour golf provides a natural setting to test for loss aversion because golfers are rewarded for the total number of strokes they take during a tournament yet each individual hole has a salient reference point par we analyze over 2 5 million putts using precise laser measurements and find evidence that even the best golfers including tiger woods show evidence of loss aversion jel d03 d81 l83

bank risk taking securitization supervision and low interest rates evidence from the euro area and the u s lending standards using a unique dataset of the euro area and the u s bank lending standards we find that low monetary policy short term interest rates soften standards for household and corporate loans this softening especially for mortgages is amplified by securitization activity weak supervision for bank capital and low monetary policy rates for an extended period conversely low long term interest rates do not soften lending standards finally countries with softer lending standards before the crisis related to negative taylor rule residuals experienced a worse economic performance afterward these results help shed light on the origins of the crisis and have important policy implications the author 2011 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oup com oxford university press

target setting in tournaments theory and evidence from china motivated by the prevalence of economic targets at all levels of territory administration in china this article proposes a tullock contest model to study optimal target setting in a multi layered tournament based organisation in our model targets are used by upper level officials to convey the importance of economic growth and incentivise subordinates in the tournaments our model predicts a top down amplification of economic growth targets along the jurisdiction levels which explains the observed pattern in china using both provincial and prefectural level data we test the model predictions and find consistent evidence

forecasting macro variables with a qual var business cycle turning point index one criticism of vector autoregression var forecasting is that macroeconomic variables tend not to behave as linear functions of their own past around business cycle turning points a large amount of literature therefore focuses on nonlinear forecasting models such as markov switching models which only indirectly capture the relation with turning points this article investigates a direct approach to using information on turning points from the national bureau of economic research nber chronology to model and forecast macroeconomic data our qual var model includes a truncated normal latent business cycle index that is negative during nber recessions and positive during expansions we motivate our forecasting exercise by demonstrating that if starting from a linear specification a truncated normal variable is an omitted variable then forecasts of the remaining variables will become nonlinear functions of their own past we apply the qual var model to recursive out of sample forecasting and find th

predicting turning points through the integration of multiple models a new method for forming composite turning point or other qualitative forecasts is proposed rather than forming composite forecasts by the standard bayesian approach with weights proportional to each model s posterior odds weights are assigned to the individual models in proportion to the probability of each model s having the correct turning point prediction these probabilities are generated by logit models estimated with data on the models past turning point forecasts an empirical application to gross national product gross domestic product forecasting of 18 organization for economic cooperation and development countries demonstrates the potential benefits of the procedure

mixed frequency var models with markov switching dynamics this paper extends the markov switching vector autoregressive models to accommodate both the typical lack of synchronicity that characterizes the real time daily flow of macroeconomic information and economic indicators sampled at different frequencies the results of the empirical application suggest that the model is able to capture the features of the nber business cycle chronology very accurately

what do the leading indicators lead the authors find that the composite leading index cli is useful for forecasting gross national product gnp both in sample and in an out of sample real time exercise they propose a nonlinear specification in which cyclical shifts of the cli precede those in gnp however the authors find that better forecasts are provided by a simple linear relation between current gnp growth and the growth rate of the cli during the previous quarter along with an error correction term corresponding to the previous quarter s logarithmic difference between the level of the cli and the level of gnp copyright 1996 by university of chicago press

are european business cycles close enough to be just one abstract we propose a comprehensive methodology to characterize the business cycle comovements across european economies and some industrialized countries without imposing any given model but trying to leave the data speak we develop a novel method to show that there is no evidence of a european economy that acts as an attractor to the other economies of the area we show that the establishment of the monetary union has not significantly increased the level of comovements across euro area economies finally we are able to explain an important proportion of the distances across their business cycles using macrovariables related to the structure of the economy to the directions of trade and to the size of the public sector

do european business cycles look like one abstract this paper provides a comprehensive framework to analyze business cycle features other than synchronization we use stationary bootstrap and model based clustering methods to analyze similarities and differences among the european cycles we find evidence that the length deep and shape of cycles differ across european countries and that these differences are not decreasing over time finally even though we find some correlation between business cycle synchronization and characteristics there is important information in the characteristics that is not captured by the synchronization measures

predicting u s business cycle regimes this article examines the use of logistic classification methods for the identification and prediction of postwar u s business cycle expansion and contraction regimes as defined by the national bureau of economic research nber reference turning point dates we present a coherent theoretical framework for this task using measures of discriminatory information the analysis encompasses model selection parameter estimation and classification decision rules we examine the performance of logistic procedures in reproducing the nber regime classifications and in predicting one and three months ahead using leading indicator variables our models are shown to provide substantially more accurate business cycle regime predictions than markov switching specifications

tournaments and office politics evidence from a real effort experiment in many environments tournaments can elicit more effort from workers except perhaps when workers can sabotage each other because it is hard to separate effort ability and output in many real workplace settings the empirical evidence on the incentive effect of tournaments is thin there is even less evidence on the impact of sabotage because real world acts of sabotage are often subtle manifestations of subjective peer evaluation or office politics we discuss a real effort experiment in which effort quality adjusted output and office politics are compared under piece rates and tournaments our results suggest that tournaments increase effort only in the absence of office politics competitors are more likely to sabotage each other in tournaments and as a result workers actually provide less effort simply because they expect to be the victims of sabotage adjusting output for quality with the rating of an independent auditor shrinks the incentive effect of the tournament even further since output tends to become more slipshod

do tournaments have incentive effects much attention has been devoted to studying models of tournaments or situations in which an individual s payment depends only on his or her output or rank relative to that of other competitors academic interest derives from the fact that under certain sets of assumptions tournaments have desirable normative properties because of the incentive structures they provide our paper uses nonexperimental data to test whether tournaments actually elicit effort responses we focus on professional golf tournaments because information on the incentive structure prize distribution and measures of individual output players scores are both available we find strong support for the proposition that the level and structure of prizes in pga tournaments influence players performance

asymmetric phase shifts in u s industrial production cycles abstract we identify cyclical turning points for 74 u s manufacturing industries and uncover new empirical regularities a industries tend to comove between expansion and contraction phases over the business cycle b clusters of industry turning points are highly asymmetric between peaks and troughs troughs are much more concentrated and sharper than peaks c the temporal pattern of phase shifts across industries supports the spillovers through input output linkages and d macroeconomic shocks such as unanticipated changes in monetary policy government spending oil prices and financial conditions are significant drivers of industrial phase shifts

dynamics of global business cycle interdependence abstract in this paper we provide a comprehensive analysis of the time varying interdependence among the economic cycles of the major world economies during the post great moderation period we document a significant increase in the global business cycle interdependence occurred in the early 2000s such increase is mainly attributed to the emerging market economies since their business cycles became more synchronized with the rest of the world around that time moreover we find that the increase in global interdependence is highly related to decreasing differences in sectoral composition among countries

quitters never win the adverse incentive effects of competing with superstars internal competition may motivate worker effort yet the benefits of competition may depend critically on workers relative abilities large skill differences may reduce efforts i use panel data from professional golf tournaments and find that the presence of a superstar is associated with lower performance on average golfers first round scores are approximately 0 2 strokes worse when tiger woods participates relative to when woods is absent the overall tournament effect is 0 8 strokes the adverse superstar effect varies with the quality of woods s play there is no evidence that reduced performance is attributable to media attention intensity or risky strategy adoption

this is what the leading indicators lead we propose an optimal filter to transform the conference board composite leading index cli into recession probabilities in the us economy we also analyse the cli s accuracy at anticipating us output growth we compare the predictive performance of linear var extensions of smooth transition regression and switching regimes probit non parametric models and conclude that a combination of the switching regimes and non parametric forecasts is the best strategy at predicting both the nber business cycle schedule and gdp growth this confirms the usefulness of cli even in a real time analysis copyright 2002 john wiley sons ltd

multiple prize contests the optimal allocation of prizes abstract multiple prize contests are important in various fields of economics ranging from rent seeking over labour economics patent and r d races to tendering for governmental projects hence it is crucial to understand the incentive effects of multiple prizes on effort investment this survey attempts to outline compare and evaluate the results from the literature while a first prize always results in a positive incentive to invest effort second and later prizes lead to ambiguous effects depending on the objective function the characteristics of the individuals and the type of contest a different prize allocation is optimal

the predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in europe and the united states implications for the european central bank abstract this paper examines the relationship of the term structure of interest rates to monetary policy instruments and to subsequent real activity and inflation in both europe and the united states the results show that monetary policy is an important determinant of the term structure spread but is unlikely to be the only determinant in addition there is significant predictive power for both real activity and inflation the yield curve is thus a simple and accurate measure that should be viewed as one piece of useful information which along with other information can be used to help guide european monetary policy

predicting u s recessions financial variables as leading indicators this paper examines the out of sample performance of various financial variables as predictors of u s recessions series such as interest rates and spreads stock prices and monetary aggregates are evaluated individually and in comparison with other financial and nonfinancial indicators the analysis focuses on out of sample performance from one to eight quarters ahead results show that stock prices are useful with one to three quarter horizons as are some well known macroeconomic indicators beyond one quarter however the slope of the yield curve emerges as the clear individual choice and typically performs better by itself out of sample than in conjunction with other variables

business cycle stylized facts and inventory behaviour new evidence for the euro area abstract the purpose of this paper is for the first time to use business tendency survey data first to identify new facts that are useful for the interpretation of the decline in the volatility of real activity in the euro area and second to test the inventory management hypothesis as an explanation for the great moderation in europe we present stylized facts from the business tendency data on series for inventories current production current orders and expected production for the euro area emphasizing the decline in the volatility of the series further we investigate whether the decline in inventory volatility can be attributed to an endogenous change in the persistence of shocks to the accumulation dynamics of inventories or to an exogenous change in the shocks hitting the inventory optimisation process our results at euro level generally indicate that there is no evidence of a break in the inventory accumulation process on the contrary the impact of exogenous shocks on inventory volatility appears to be steadily declining over time beginning from the mid 1980s

business cycles indicators and forecasting acknowledgments introduction james h stock and mark w watson 1 twenty two years of the nber asa quarterly economic outlook surveys aspects and comparisons of forecasting performance victor zarnowitz and phillip braun comment allen sinai 2 a procedure for predicting recessions with leading indicators econometric issues and recent experience james h stock and mark w watson comment kenneth f wallis 3 estimating event probabilities from macroeconometric models using stochastic simulation ray c fair comment james d hamilton 4 a nine variable probabilistic macroeconomic forecasting model christopher a sims comment pierre perron 5 why does the paper bill spread predict real economic activity benjamin m friedman and kenneth n kuttner comment ben s bernanke 6 further evidence on business cycle duration dependence francis x diebold glenn d rudebusch and daniel e sichel comment bruce e hansen 7 dynamic index models for large cross sections danny quah and thomas j sargent comment john geweke 8 modelling non linearity over the business cycle clive w j granger timo terdsvirta and heather anderson comment andrew harvey contributors author index subject index

dynamic limited dependent variable modeling and u s monetary policy i estimate using real time data a forward looking monetary policy reaction function that is dynamic and that also accounts for the fact that there are substantial restrictions in the period to period changes of the fed s policy instrument i nd a substantial contrast between the periods before and after paul volcker s appointment as fed chairman in 1979 both in terms of the fed s response to expected in ation and in terms of its response to the perceived output gap in the pre volcker era the fed s response to in ation was substantially weaker than in the volcker greenspan era conversely the fed seems to have been more responsive to real activity in the pre volcker era than later

dissecting the cycle a methodological investigation following burns and mitchell we define the cycle as a pattern in the level of aggregate economic activity an algorithm to locate turning points is developed as is a new measure of pro cyclicality a link between turning points and the moments of the series is established thereby providing the statistical foundation that burns and mitchell s work lacked using these tools we are able to dissect cycles in terms of the contributions made by trend growth volatility serial correlation and non linear effects we dissect several models and find little evidence that certain non linear effects are important to the nature of business cycles

an institutional approach to the rationality of expectations the issue of expectations is an important one to modern macroeconomic theory despite considerable efforts in recent times the process by which economic expectations are actually formed is still not well understood there are several possible explanations for this one of the more important is that an investigation of the forecasting industry which contributes in a major way to expectations formation has never been carried out as a result and because it is after all an industry like any other a study of the aggregate economic forecasting in canada was undertaken using the now familiar scp paradigm such a relatively careful institutional examination of the uses and production of one of the most important elements going to make up economic expectations gives strong evidence of rational economic processes at work economic theory is therefore correct to treat expectations as rational

federalism as a commitment to reserving market incentives the authors advance a new perspective in the study of federalism their approach views federalism as a governance solution of the state to credibly preserving market incentives market incentives are preserved if the state is credibly prevented from compromising on future economic success and from bailing out future failures the salient features of federalism decentralization of information and authority and interjurisdictional competition help provide credible commitment or these purposes in addition the authors suggest that some federalism are self sustaining

financial development and corporate growth in the eu single market the establishment of the eu 15 single market in 1993 brought about a high degree of similarity in firms growth opportunities across countries while substantial diversity existed in the development of national financial markets we compare within industry growth rates of similar single market firms facing financial systems of different depth and institutional quality as of 1993 moving from the least to the most developed financial market within the eu 15 boosts firms annual value added growth by about three percentage points our results also suggest that the growth gap due to initially underdeveloped financial systems was closed by 2003

european business cycles new indices and their synchronicity this article presents a new business cycle index that allows for cycle to cycle comparisons of the depth of recessions within a country cross country comparisons of business cycle correlation and simple aggregation to arrive at a measure of a european business cycle the data augmentation implied by gibbs sampling generates posterior distributions for a latent coincident business cycle index subsample correlations between an aggregated europe index and the national business cycle indices from france germany and italy are consistent with the claim that the european economies are becoming more harmonized

business cycles synchronicity and income levels has globalisation brought us closer than ever research on business cycle linkages shows a tendency to model countries of relatively the same income levels jointly however the issue of whether these countries move along the same business cycles has not been formally investigated in the literature in this paper we take this approach and investigate whether each group of countries follows its own dynamics and is therefore subjected to the same business cycle and whether these cycles are independent of each other across income groups results indicate that high income per capita countries hics tend to be guided by stronger similarity in business cycles than countries in the middle mics and low income lics groups in search for an explanation of the business cycles synchronicity observed panel data analysis was explored the results from the robust fixed effects estimation show neither trade openness nor shocks to consumption underlie international business cycle synchronization but rather shocks to oil prices

are economic time series asymmetric over the business cycle it has long been argued that major cyclical variables such as the unemployment rate display an asymmetric behavior over various phases of the business cycle the paper provides a statistical test for this hypothesis using the framework of finite state markov processes i implement a test to see if the behavior of the unemployment rate is characterized by sudden jumps and slower drops it is argued that the framework provided in the paper can also be used to test other sample path properties of economic time series

do recessions permanently change output abstract this paper examines whether negative innovations to gnp are more or less persistent than positive innovations we find that once we allow for the impulse response of gnp to be asymmetric negative innovations to gnp are observed to be much less persistent than positive ones in particular the effect of a recession on the forecast of output is found to be negligible after only eight to twelve quarters while the effect of a positive shock is estimated to be persistent and amplified over time our results may therefore help reconcile two antagonistic views about the nature of business cycle fluctuations

inventories and the three phases of the business cycle this article demonstrates that recessions typically are followed by high growth recovery phases that push output back to its prerecession level thus postwar fluctuations in real output in the united states have consisted of three sequential phases rather than two contractions high growth recoveries and moderate growth periods following recoveries data from before world war ii also exhibit this pattern for the postwar period the three phase pattern is shown to reflect swings in inventory investment and suggests that output fluctuations have an important transitory component the evidence in this article supports delong and summers s output gaps view and friedman s plucking model view of fluctuations

the information content of capacity utilization for detrending total factor productivity abstract in the production function approach an accurate output gap assessment requires a careful evaluation of the total factor productivity tfp cycle we build a common cycle model that links tfp to capacity utilization and we show that in almost all of the pre enlargement eu countries using information about capacity utilization reduces both the total estimation error and the revisions in real time estimates of the concurrent tfp cycle compared to a univariate decomposition we also argue that relaxing the constant drift hypothesis in favour of a non linear specification helps to offset a general tendency to underestimate the tfp cycle in the last decade

high growth recoveries inventories and the great moderation we develop a dynamic factor model to compute short term forecasts of the spanish gdp growth in real time with this model we compute a business cycle index which works well as an indicator of the business cycle conditions in spain to examine its real time forecasting accuracy we use real time data vintages from 2008 02 through 2009 01 we conclude that the model exhibits good forecasting performance in anticipating the recent and sudden downturn

synchronization and diversity in business cycles a network analysis of the european union in this article we use a correlation matrix and its internal networks to analyse business cycle synchronization across europe since 2000 this methodology allows us to summarize individual country interactions and co movements while also capturing the existing heterogeneity of connectivity within the european economic system our results indicate that synchronization of the euro zone countries remained stable from 1999 until the current financial crisis after which co movements increased sharply and synchronization rose to the highest in the time sample by endogenously identifying clusters of countries with close connections in their business cycle we also refute the commonly accepted notion of identifiable core and peripheral euro zone countries

a more timely and useful index of leading indicators effectively predicting cyclical movements in the economy is a major challenge the u s leading index li has long been used to analyze and predict economic fluctuations we describe and test a new procedure for making the li more timely the new li significantly outperforms its older counterpart it offers substantial gains in real time out of sample forecasts of changes in aggregate economic activity real gdp the index of coincident indicators and industrial production and provides timely and accurate ex ante information for predicting not only business cycle turning points but also monthly changes in the economy

executive compensation and tournament theory empirical tests on danish data this article adds to the empirical literature on tournament theory as a theory of executive compensation i test several propositions of tournament models on a rich data set containing information about 2 600 executives in 210 danish firms during a 4 year period i ask are pay differentials between job levels consistent with relative compensation is pay dispersion between levels higher in noisy environments is the dispersion affected by the number of tournament participants is average pay lower in firms with more compressed pay structures does wider pay dispersion enhance firm performance most of the predictions gain support in the data

bank rate policy under the interwar gold standard a dynamic probit model the classical gold standard occupies an almost mystical position in the literature of international finance in popular accounts the gold standard is portrayed as a remarkably durable and efficient mechanism for achieving price and exchange rate stability and for relieving balance of payments pressures the system s resilience is attributed to the willingness of nationa monetary authorities to refrain from impeding the international adjustment process when central banks intervened in financial markets it is said they did so mechanically obeying rules of the game which dictated that they reinforce the impact on domestic money and credit of changing balance of payments conditions succeeding generations of economists and historians have sought to qualify this popular view the recent contributions of bordo i98i and cooper i982 make a critical assessment of extravagant claims concerning price and exchange rate stability under the classical gold standard other authors have extended the research of bloomfield i 959 ford i962 and triffin i964 who emphasised the special conditions that permitted the classical gold standard s smooth operation and cast doubt on the tendency of national monetary authorities to adhere faithfully to rules of the game all too often scant mention is made of the interwar gold standard for it is not evident how interwar experience fits into either view certain facts are clear it is clear that the interwar standard was far from durable britain s resumption of gold payments in i925 usually is taken to mark the gold standard s resurrection just as her devaluation a mere 6 years later is taken as its demise in the interim many of the major participants suffered serious balance of payments pressures that threatened to render their exchange rates indefensible the system was anything but conducive to stability it precluded neither price nor income fluctuations as the great depression dramatically illustrated numerous explanations have been advanced for the interwar gold standard s

incentives information and organizational form we model an organization as a hierarchy of managers erected on top of a technology here consisting of a collection of plants in our framework the role of a manager is to take steps to reduce the adverse consequences of shocks that affect the plants beneath him we argue that different organizational forms give rise to different information about managers performance and therefore differ according to how effective incentives can be in encouraging a good performance in particular we show that under certain assumptions the m form multi divisional form is likely to provide better incentives than the u form unitary form because it promotes yardstick competition i e relative performance evaluation more effectively we conclude by presenting evidence that the assumptions on which this comparison rests are satisfied for chinese data

tests of the rational expectations hypothesis this paper reviews evidence on the structure of anticipation from a number of empirical studies jack muth s rational expectations hypothesis is compared with a variety of alternative models including ferber s law the implicit expectations model of edwin mills and muth s new errors in the variables model the cumulative evidence is of such strength as to compel the suspension of belief in the concept of rational expectations this implies that it is a mistake to proceed under the maintained hypothesis that expectations are rational instead it is necessary to test the sensitivity of empirical and theoretical results to alternative assumptions about the structure by which anticipations are generated copyright 1986 by american economic association

the transmission mechanism in a changing world this paper aims at improving the understanding of the transmission of shocks across countries and how this transmission may have changed over time by employing a model that allows for parameter changes across regimes we show that transmission of shocks from the us to european countries may depend on the values of transition variables such as financial prices exchange rates international capital flows trade links and monetary policy instruments we also show that transmission mechanisms estimated with the proposed models have good performance in describing the 2001 downturn in some european countries as an effect of a us shock more generally the models have a good forecasting performance over short horizons

macroeconomic forecasting using diffusion indexes this article studies forecasting a macroeconomic time series variable using a large number of predictors the predictors are summarized using a small number of indexes constructed by principal component analysis an approximate dynamic factor model serves as the statistical framework for the estimation of the indexes and construction of the forecasts the method is used to construct 6 12 and 24 monthahead forecasts for eight monthly u s macroeconomic time series using 215 predictors in simulated real time from 1970 through 1998 during this sample period these new forecasts outperformed univariate autoregressions small vector autoregressions and leading indicator models