exchange rates and unfair trade an examination of the changing country pattern of dumping and subsidy complaints by u s companies over time suggests that exchange rate fluctuations are a significant factor in determining case filings especially against japanese companies the inverse relationship observed between filings and the real external value of the u s dollar is consistent both with the traditional or technical interpretation of dumping and subsidy cases and with the view that they are promoted by rent seeking activities of lawyers and economists representing petitioners while this result says nothing about the merits of any particular case it cautions that the prevalence of unfair trade is not exogenous with respect to broader macroeconomic considerations copyright 1989 by mit press

real exchange rate overvaluation and wto dispute initiation in developing countries why and when do developing countries file trade disputes at the world trade organization wto although financial conditions have long been considered an important driver of trade policy they have been largely absent from the literature on trade disputes we argue that developing country governments bring more trade dispute to the wto when overvalued real exchange rates put exporters at a competitive disadvantage this dynamic is most prevalent in countries where large foreign currency debt burdens discourage nominal currency devaluations that would otherwise serve exporters interests our findings provide an explanation for differences in dispute participation rates among developing countries and also suggest a new link between exchange rate regimes and trade policy

self enforcing trade agreements evidence from time varying trade policy the bagwell and staiger 1990 theory of cooperative trade agreements predicts new tariffs i increase with imports ii increase with the inverse of the sum of the import demand and export supply elasticities and iii decrease with the variance of imports the authors find us import policy during 1997 2006 to be consistent with this theory a one standard deviation increase in import growth the inverse of the sum of the import demand and export supply elasticity and the standard deviation of import growth changes the probability that the us imposes an antidumping tariff by 35 percent by 88 percent and by 76 percent respectively

exchange rates and industry demands for trade protection the recent confrontation between china and the united states over currency policy illustrates a broader phenomenon exchange rate misalignments tend to spill over into trade policy although previous studies have shown that aggregate protectionist activity is positively related to the level of the real effective exchange rate we explore this relationship at the industry level several industry specific characteristics determine the protectionist response to exchange rate changes including the degree of exchange rate pass through the level of import penetration and the share of imported intermediate inputs in total industry inputs we find that the marginal effect of currency appreciation on the number of industry level antidumping petitions is positive and significant only for industries with high pass through therefore exchange rates appear to induce demands for trade barriers only in industries where competitiveness is directly harmed by currency appreciation

false friends empirical evidence on trade policy substitution in regional trade agreements in this paper we examine the interplay of regional economic integration and the use of bilateral antidumping ad measures our empirical analysis brings three central findings to light i we find that regional trade agreements rtas generally reduce the likelihood of ad activity among integration partners ii in addition an improvement in the tariff treatment between trading partners regardless of whether expressed as the directly faced tariff or as a tariff margin generally leads to a lower likelihood of bilateral ad and iii regarding the interaction of both events however a reciprocally higher tariff margin between integration partners leads to a higher likelihood of bilateral ad than an equal tariff margin among non integration trading partners the latter effect seems to be primarily driven by those rtas with a participation of south countries

anti dumping what are the numbers to discuss at doha while tariff barriers have decreased worldwide through various gatt rounds anti dumping has surged to play a crucial role as the most important non tariff barrier after much debate and opposition anti dumping is on the agenda of the doha round of multilateral trade negotiations and it is one of the most important issues especially for developing countries as they are the main targets of this policy instrument with this prospect it is important to assess the relevance of anti dumping not only by focusing on traditional users but by analysing the experience of new users which are now major players in the field this paper improves upon existing studies by providing a comprehensive assessment on the use of anti dumping first data on the time pattern of worldwide implementations of anti dumping laws are presented this time profile shows interesting relationships with legal developments in gatt and wto dispositions second usual sources of data are complemented with various other sources this allows the inclusion of recent heavy users like china russia taiwan and ukraine which are ignored in similar studies but important for their trade volumes this enlarged and updated dataset shows that new users are even more important than previously thought with implications for the doha negotiations

does antidumping use contribute to trade liberalization in developing countries some supporters of antidumping have argued that this procedure serves as a kind of safety valve for protectionist pressure in this paper we investigate whether there is empirical evidence that the use of antidumping actions has contributed to ongoing tariff reductions over the period 1988 to 2004 in a sample of 23 developing countries some of which have become aggressive users of antidumping in recent years the evidence is not supportive of the safety valve argument for these countries instead evidence suggests that past use of antidumping may have led to less rather than more trade liberalization

single factor duration models in a discrete general equilibrium framework single factor duration models sfdms for valuing debt securities have gained rapid acceptance by bond practitioners in recent years but slower acceptance by academics in large measure the slower academic acceptance reflects the lack of a rigorously developed underlying economic or financial theoretic base partially as a result some sfdms have undesirable behavioral characteristics foremost among these is that they appear to be inconsistent with accepted general equilibrium conditions this paper has two purposes the first is to construct explicitly the theoretical underpinnings of the model and the second is to develop the conditions under which the model does satisfy general equilibrium conditions this is done in sections i and ii respectively

macroeconomic factors and antidumping filings evidence from four countries abstract this paper examines the relationship between antidumping filings and macroeconomic factors real exchange rate fluctuations affect the two criteria for dumping in opposite ways making the overall effect on filings ambiguous in theory examining the filing patterns of the four major users of ad law during the 1980 98 period we find that real exchange rates and domestic real gdp growth both have statistically significant impacts on filings bilateral filing data indicate that a one standard deviation real appreciation of the domestic currency increases filings by 33 we also find one standard deviation fall in domestic real gdp increases filings by 23

trade liberalization macroeconomic fluctuations and contingent protection in latin america the main purpose of this paper is to analyze the main determinants of antidumping actions in latin america from a policy perspective it would be interesting to know whether the application of trade remedy instruments was associated with episodes of a depressed level of economic activity or real exchange rate appreciations or both these developments favor the finding of industry injury and dumping practices making the case for antidumping more justifiable an alternative hypothesis is that antidumping measures have been erected simply as replacements for formal tariff protection so that there should be a negative relationship between antidumping measures and tariff levels moreover antidumping actions may be associated less with macroeconomic variables affecting injury and dumping and more with political economy type variables such as industry concentration the main purpose of this study is to investigate these hypotheses employing a very detailed database for the three main antidumping countries in latin america argentina brazil and mexico we find support for the hypothesis that in these countries contingent protection has been employed to protect domestic industries in times of macroeconomic hardship in particular real exchange rate appreciations and sluggish gdp growth is associated with increasing antidumping actions the estimated quantitative impact seems quite significant on average a real appreciation of 25 percent raises expected antidumping initiations by about 20 percent also a 4 percentage point decline in gdp raises expected antidumping activity by 27 percent besides these macrodeterminants we also investigate whether antidumping actions were established to replace protection given by regular tariffs or whether they were affected by political economy variables such as industry concentration we find some evidence consistent with the first proposition but not with the second

import protection business cycles and exchange rates evidence from the great recession this research estimates the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on import protection policies over 1988 q1 2010 q4 for five industrialized economies the united states european union australia canada and south korea there is evidence of a strong countercyclical trade policy response in the pre great recession period of 1988 q1 2008 q3 during which increases in domestic unemployment rates real appreciations in bilateral exchange rates and declines in the gdp growth rates of bilateral trading partners led to substantial increases in new temporary trade barriers it then applies this pre great recession empirical model to realized macroeconomic data from 2008 q4 2010 q4 and find it predicts a surge of new import protection during the great recession e g for the us and eu the model predicts new trade barriers would cover an additional 15 percentage points of nonoil imports well above the baseline level of 2 3 percent of import coverage immediately preceding the crisis finally the research examines why the realized trade policy response differed from model predictions while exchange rate movements played an important role in limiting new import protection during the great recession there is also evidence of one particularly important change in trade policy responsiveness i e in this period governments refrained from imposing new temporary trade barriers against foreign trading partners experiencing their own weak or negative economic growth

trade policy flexibilities and turkey tariffs antidumping safeguards and wto dispute settlement trade policy commitments to lower import tariffs and to maintain tariffs at low levels entail short and long run political economic costs and benefits empirical work examining the relationship between such commitments and the exercise of trade policy flexibilities is still relatively nascent especially for emerging economies this paper provides a rich empirically based assessment of ways that turkey exercised trade policy flexibilities during the global economic crisis of 2008 11 first and despite multilateral and customs union commitments that might limit changes to applied tariffs turkey made changes to both its applied most favored nation and preferential tariffs that cumulatively affect nearly 9 percent of manufacturing imports and 10 percent of import product lines second turkey s cumulative application of temporary trade barrier ttb policies antidumping safeguards and countervailing duties are estimated to impact by 2011 an additional 4 percent of imports and 6 percent of product lines other surprising results on turkey s use of flexibilities include extending the duration of previously imposed antidumping and safeguards beyond expected removal dates removing one ttb policy over a set of products and immediately reapplying a different ttb policy covering lengthy upstream and downstream segments of important industries and deepening discriminatory preference margins already inherent in existing preferential trade agreements

import dynamics and demands for protection what kinds of changes in foreign competition lead domestic industries to seek import protection to address this question this paper uses detailed monthly u s import data to investigate changes in import composition during a 24 month window immediately preceding the filing of a petition for protection a decomposition methodology allows a comparison of imports from two groups of countries supplying the same product those that are named in the petition and those that are not the same decomposition can be applied to products quite similar to the imports in question but not subject to a petition the results suggest that industries typically seek protection when faced with a specific pattern of shocks first a persistent positive relative supply shock favors imports from named countries second a negative demand shock hits imports from all sources just prior to domestic industries petition for protection the relative supply shock is a broad one it applies both to named commodities and to the comparison product group the import demand shock by contrast is narrow hitting only named products the latter shock is also large import growth over the two year window is 15 percentage points lower in named products than in reference products with most of this gap arising in the final two quarters before the petition the negative import demand shock appears to be a key event in the run up to the filing of a petition it has been missed by previous studies using more aggregated data

wto tariff commitments and temporary protection complements or substitutes abstract there is a long held notion in the trade policy literature that traditional tariff instruments and temporary protection tp measures are substitutes despite this prediction there is only mixed empirical evidence for a link between tariff reductions and the usage pattern of antidumping safeguard and countervailing duties based on recent theoretical advances i argue in this paper that the relevant trade policy margin for implementing tp measures is instead tariff overhangs the difference between wto bound and applied tariffs lower tariff overhangs constrain countries to raise their mfn applied rates without legal repercussions independent of past tariff changes using detailed sectoral data for a sample of 30 wto member countries during the period 1996 2014 i find strong evidence for an inverse link between tariff overhangs and tp activity this result implies that tariff overhangs and tp measures are substitutes vindicating the importance of existing tariff commitments as a key determinant of alternative protection instruments

efetividade do instrumento antidumping no brasil entre 1990 e 2007 the aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of anti dumping instrument in brazil two aspects the relationship between antidumping filings and macroeconomic factors and the effects of macroeconomic variables and industry size on the likelihood of petitioner law enforcement antidumping the results showed that macroeconomic variables have no effect on the number of antidumping filings for the brazilian economy from 1990 to 2007 moreover result supports the hypothesis that adverse scenarios in the national economy and the specific characteristics of sectors petitioners for the increased probability of conclude by the application of antidumping law reducing its effectiveness

evolution in the use of antidumping mechanism after uruguay round abstract this paper analyzed how the main economies have used the antidumping measures ad after the uruguay round between 1995 and 2012 therefore some techniques were employed in order to reveal the main ad users and the trend of using this instrument associated to each one of them we also tested the hypothesis that countries could converge in terms of the number of ad cases and if spatial effects could be involved in this process finally a criterion was established and a model was estimated in order to identify countries that usually favor the most competitive sectors through ad practice the results revealed that brazil was the only heavy ad user that was counter to the general downward trend verified on the ad cases meanwhile china was not only the main target of this mechanism but the cases against this country showed a growth trend also furthermore we found that the number of ad cases opened by traditional and nontraditional users is converging finally both the index and the estimated model have indicated that turkey and the eu seem to be favoring the most competitive industries through the ad practice

the politicisation of ec anti dumping policy member states their votes and the european commission this paper examines one political economy aspect of the european communities ec anti dumping policy that has tended to be overlooked in prior studies namely the role that member states play in deciding whether to impose definitive duties on imports that have been found to be dumped and that are deemed to have injured a european industry we find that in the late 1990s numerous disagreements between member states occurred over the merits of imposing anti dumping duties these disagreements may well have been partly responsible for the strong decline in the number of european anti dumping investigations initiated after 1999

macro economic determinants of antidumping a comparative analysis of developed and developing countries abstract this study examines how macro factors influence the use of antidumping in developed and developing countries a panel data analysis of 99 countries over 1980 2000 reinforces the view that the primary jurisdiction for the antidumping law is really more political than economic furthermore it suggests that once the wto is fully enforced the use of antidumping will spread among developing countries not only due to greater liberalization pressures but also as many countries would like to create an antidumping ability so as to counter its use against them this may reverse the trade gains that liberalization may ensure to them this paper thus calls for the granting of the special and differential treatment to developing countries in this provision finally based on its findings the paper argues that future negotiations should be directed toward revising safeguard rules and replacing antidumping by this new clause

fixed versus variable rate loans this paper discusses the nature of fixed and variable loan contracts and derives the conditions which determine the optimal quantity of each the results indicate that the payoff functions are quite different and dependent upon the project financed the appropriate conditions for the allocation of loan terms to a set of borrowers are then developed finally the analysis derives the optimal portfolio frontier and risk return trade off for the banking firm here it is demonstrated that the solution is unlikely to be at a point of zero interest rate risk

the march of an economic idea protectionism isn t counter cyclic anymore conventional wisdom holds that protectionism is counter cyclic tariffs quotas and the like grow during recessions while that may have been a valid description of the data before the first world war it is now inaccurate since the second world war protectionism has not been counter cyclic tariffs and non tariff barriers simply do not rise systematically during downturns i document this new stylised fact with a panel of data covering over 180 countries and 40 years using over a dozen measures of protectionism and six of business cycles i test and reject a number of potential reasons why protectionism is no longer counter cyclic a diagnosis of exclusion leads me to believe that modern economics may well be responsible for the decline in protectionism s cyclic behaviour economists are more united in their disdain for protectionism than virtually any other concept this in turn leaves one optimistic that the level of protectionism will continue to decline along with its cyclicality andrew k rose

going multinational under exchange rate uncertainty abstract we analyze a model where an exporting firm competes a la cournot in a foreign market the firm faces exchange rate uncertainty and has the option to invest abroad the paper contributes four results first real option pricing techniques are used to derive the optimal timing rule of the investment and the price of the firm and foreign competitors second the sunk cost of entry into the foreign market introduces hysteresis in direct investment flows we find that the degree of hysteresis grows with the number of firms in the industry third we determine the conditions under which dumping may appear and the role of fdi in precluding this type of dumping fourth tariffs have the well known fdi inducing effect more so in less competitive markets and are more effective at deterring delocation furthermore a tariff might have the effect of triggering dumping

bank loan commitments and interest rate volatility bank loan commitments are examined in the context of option pricing models and a valuation formula is obtained the partial takedown phenomenon which is both distinctive and vexatious is considered in detail finally estimates of the value of u s bank loan commitments and their sensitivity to interest rate changes are provided

taking stock of antidumping safeguards and countervailing duties 1990 2009 antidumping safeguards countervailing duties 1990 2009 this article examines the evolving cross country use of antidumping safeguard and countervailing duty policies temporary trade barriers ttbs over the period 1990 2009 i construct two new measures of imported products subject to the combined use of these ttbs before applying these measures to new data drawn from the world bank s temporary trade barriers database i then establish a number of facts regarding trends in historical use to benchmark against policy activity during the global economic crisis of 2008 09 the 2008 09 economic shock mostly accentuates patterns and trends already visible in the precrisis data e g while the major users of such policies overall combined to increase the product lines subject to ttbs by 25 per cent during the crisis this was driven almost entirely by developing economies which increased their product coverage by 40 per cent perhaps surprisingly recession affected high income economies increased their stock of product coverage by only 5 per cent during the crisis a muted policy response consistent with earlier trends in which major developed economies like the united states and eu reduced the stock of imported products they subject to ttbs to 2007 levels that were only 50 per cent as high as their within period peak furthermore a previously unidentified feature of the data is that a much larger share of china s exported products to other developing economies is subject to foreign imposed antidumping than its exports to developed economies the evidence confirms this feature is shared by a number of other major developing economy exporters deepening concern that these discriminatory trade barriers are increasingly a south south phenomenon finally i also clarify emerging trends in countervailing duty anti subsidy use across countries

miller s equilibrium shareholder leverage clienteles and optimal capital structure the purpose of this paper is twofold first we examine the individual portfolio decisions when income from stocks and bonds is taxed at different rates second a rationale for the existence of risky debt in the presence of leverage related costs and differential personal income taxation is provided previous studies on capital structure with differential personal income taxation have ignored either the portfolio risk consideration and or the possibility of losing personal and corporate interest tax shields due to insufficient taxable earnings e g 8 2 3 14 13 6 7 1 9 19 20 21 23 in section i of this paper both the portfolio risk consideration and the possibility of losing personal and corporate interest tax shields are explicitly introduced this enables us to provide a rationale for the shareholder leverage clientele phenomenon within a mean variance framework we also demonstrate a non corner solution for the optimal corporate capital structure in a tax environment similar to that of miller s debt and taxes 14 in sections ii and iii of this paper miller s world is further modified to include risky debt and the attendant costs we re examine and synthesize recent studies on the theory of optimal capital structure which have appeared since the publication of debt and taxes e g 4 6 7 13 19 20

preferential trade agreements and antidumping protection abstract are preferential trade agreements ptas stumbling blocks or building blocks towards multilateral trade liberalization we address this question by investigating the effects of the negotiation and implementation of ptas on the use of antidumping ad i e the most common form of contingent trade protection by member countries against non members as there has been a concurrent surge in regionalism and ad activity since the 1990s theoretically derived empirical predictions are supported by the empirical analysis based on the 15 most intense users of ad the results demonstrate that both the negotiation and the implementation of ptas lead to fewer ad measures against non member countries except for members of customs union agreements in force facing large import surges from non members thus our results highlight a building block effect of ptas on multilateral trade cooperation when it comes to ad protection

bank income taxes and interest rate risk management a note banks and other financial institutions are concerned with the management of their interest rate risk in the frictionless markets of most finance theory however one interest rate risk management policy is just as good as another hence the finance literature does not provide convincing reasons for managers to want to control interest rate risk consequently the literature has provided little guidance on what to control how far to go with this control or on how to explain differences in interest rate risk exposure among banks given frictionless markets shareholder indifference to the bank s interest rate risk policy plus management s preference to reduce risk could lead to policies that reduce or eliminate exposure to interest rate risk i e to immunization strategies however if part of the reason for the existence of banks is the provision of maturity intermediation services managers who avoid exposure to interest rate risk are likely to come out second best to managers who choose asset and liability portfolios that do expose the bank s shareholders to this risk in this note we develop and analyze a model of bank decisions in which tax considerations induce banks to control interest rate risk in the u s banks have many opportunities to shield current income against federal and state taxation foreign tax credits investment tax credits and investment in tax exempt securities are three examples the tax position of a bank can be thought of as a stock of nonsaleable tax shields usable in the current or in future years the tax shields are an asset and if the bank s income falls below some level then the value of that asset will be reduced either by the loss of tax shielding opportunities or by the postponement of their realization 2 this note treats the bank tax position similarly to the models discussed by brennan and schwartz 2 miller 8 deangelo and masulis 4 and kim 6 however our interest is in the effect of tax shields on risk taking by financial institutions rather than a concern with capital structure decisions 3

differences in the determinants and targeting of antidumping china and india compared despite both being developing countries china and india have markedly contrasting patterns in their use and targeting of antidumping ad measures we explore the factors driving ad use by these two countries considering in turn macroeconomic strategic and other determinants we find more regular or systematic features of ad use by china while india displays a less systematic pattern of ad use economic growth ad club effect and fta participation are shown to constrain ad use by china compared to india ad use by china is also more sensitive across industries furthermore china targets developed countries more than developing countries while india is less discriminating with respect to the country type it targets

goods prices and exchange rates what have we learned import prices typically change by a smaller proportion than the exchange rate between the exporting and importing country recent research indicates that common currency relative prices for similar goods exported to different markets are highly correlated with exchange rates between those markets this evidence suggests that incomplete pass through is a consequence of third degree price discrimination while distance matters for market segmentation borders have independent effects the source of the border effect has not been clearly identified furthermore there is little evidence yet to suggest substantial market power is implied by the observed price discrimination

taking stock of antidumping safeguards and countervailing duties 1990 2009 this article examines the evolving cross country use of antidumping safeguard and countervailing duty policies temporary trade barriers ttbs over the period 1990 2009 i construct two new measures of imported products subject to the combined use of these ttbs before applying these measures to new data drawn from the world bank s temporary trade barriers database i then establish a number of facts regarding trends in historical use to benchmark against policy activity during the global economic crisis of 2008 09 the 2008 09 economic shock mostly accentuates patterns and trends already visible in the precrisis data e g while the major users of such policies overall combined to increase the product lines subject to ttbs by 25 per cent during the crisis this was driven almost entirely by developing economies which increased their product coverage by 40 per cent perhaps surprisingly recession affected high income economies increased their stock of product coverage by only 5 per cent during the crisis a muted policy response consistent with earlier trends in which major developed economies like the united states and eu reduced the stock of imported products they subject to ttbs to 2007 levels that were only 50 per cent as high as their within period peak furthermore a previously unidentified feature of the data is that a much larger share of china s exported products to other developing economies is subject to foreign imposed antidumping than its exports to developed economies the evidence confirms this feature is shared by a number of other major developing economy exporters deepening concern that these discriminatory trade barriers are increasingly a south south phenomenon finally i also clarify emerging trends in countervailing duty anti subsidy use across countries

interactions between flows of human resources in functional regions and flows of inventories in dynamic processes of global supply chains abstract according to the ageing report 2015 ec 2015 the number of workers in europe will decline for 20 million by 2060 the question thus arises how this shrinking pool of workers unequally dispersed in the european regions will influence the competitiveness and profitability of global supply chains and location of the production and distribution nodes within the human resource market commuting costs are compensated thus influencing wage rates and or land rent capitalised in the value of residential properties these aspects influence the total costs of human resources in the activity cells of supply chains and the stream of profit achieved in a chain the corporation whose activity cells are located in the local area which is a net importer of human resources has to pay higher average wages than the corporation whose facilities are located in the district from which the labour is exported if higher wages do not cover these differences they create incentives to commute into other functional regions the edges of the functional regions are the lines from which human resources are indifferent regarding commuting to a given central place where the activity cell is located or in the competing central place these indifference curves move as relative wages change therefore those planning the location and intensity of activities in the nodes of a supply chain should consider the influence of the required level of wages which depends on the spatial dispersion of dwellings of workers so the intensity of the flow of items inventories in the process and intensity of the inflow of human resources interact in the area in which the activity cell is located and influence the profit of corporations therefore our aim is to present an innovative approach to the integration of the gravity model of spatially dispersed human resources with the supply systems described by extended mrp theory here the dynamics of delineation of functional regions is assumed to respond immediately to the changes in the differences between wages and commuting costs which is also a novelty of this compound model in our study these two analytical models interact and merge in the compact form for studying the profitability of activities under the volatile intensity of the production flows this represents a new approach to the evaluation of the present value of chain our method enables us to evaluate an expected long term stream of profit this is an important tool for managers and owners who might have different options regarding where to place and invest in an activity cell they can forecast the influences of the localities and wages on the profit stream before deciding to open or to close and to intensify or not their activities in the particular central place of a functional region

east asia s anti dumping problem east asia accounts for a large and growing share of worldwide anti dumping ad activity east asian countries have long been the main targets of ad actions accounting for about one third of all ad actions during the 1980s more than 40 per cent of all ad actions during the 1990s and almost 50 per cent of all ad actions in recent years after controlling for factors that might influence filings such as the exchange rate and trade volume it is found that east asian countries are subject to about twice as many cases as either north american or western european countries moreover the trend in filings against east asian countries is increasing meaning that in recent years the propensity for countries to direct their ad filings against east asian countries is growing one concern is that the growing intensity of ad use against east asia is driven by china prc importantly but a rising propensity is found even excluding china prc

on the determinants of corporate hedging finance theory indicates that hedging increases firm value by reducing expected taxes expected costs of financial distress or other agency costs this paper provides evidence on these hypotheses using survey data on firm s use of forwards futures swaps and options combined with computstat data on firm characteristics of 169 firms in the sample 104 firms use hedging instruments in 1986 the data suggest that firms which hedge face more convex tax functions have less coverage of fixed claims are larger have more growth options in their investment opportunity set and employ fewer hedging substitutes

antidumping cases in the us chemical industry a panel data approach factors motivating the decision to file an antidumping petition are analyzed with data from 1976 88 for the u s chemical industry the incidence of antidumping filings is related to disaggregate levels of and changes in macroeconomic variables in a count model framework import penetration number of employees price cost margins the chemical production index and dumping margins all significantly influence the filing decision while average wages the capital to shipments ratio and the new capital expenditures to shipments ratio do not there is also evidence that antidumping filings increased significantly following implementation of the trade agreements act of 1979 copyright 1994 by blackwell publishing ltd

exchange rates and oligopoly abstract the purpose of this paper is to explain empirical observations concerning the impact of exchange rate changes on industrial prices as exchange rates change the pass through into industrial prices is often incomplete and sometimes it goes into the wrong direction i e the prices in the depreciating country decrease while those in the appreciating country increase the latter is called perverse pass through the usual context for such observations is one of segmented markets and imperfect competition we consider the simplest model with these characteristics two duopolistic firms which both operate in two countries the markets of the two countries are separate and each of the firms produces its good in one of these countries we study the effect of an exchange rate change on the prices in each country and on the level of sales and of profits of each of the firms when strong restrictions such as constant marginal costs are imposed prices move in the right direction in response to an exchange rate change however with general cost and demand structures even in this simple model it is possible for prices in both countries to move in perverse directions