how firms respond to financial restatement ceo successors and external reactions although past studies have paid considerable attention to firms reputations few have investigated the actions that firms take following a reputation damaging event we identify firms involved in financial earnings restatements and examine whether naming a successor ceo with specific qualities serves to signal the seriousness of a firm s efforts to restore its reputation using theories of market signaling we argue that attributes of successor ceos significantly influence the reactions of key external constituencies in particular firms with more severe restatement tend to name successors who have prior ceo or turnaround experience and a more elite education the naming of such successors results in more positive reactions from the stock market financial analysts and mass media we argue that these attributes send messages to stakeholders and the broader public about the ceo s credibility and the firm s efforts

saving and growth evidence from micro data abstract this paper examines whether the observed cross country correlation between aggregate saving rates and economic growth can be explained by models in which higher growth increases saving rates rather than the other way around there are two explanations why higher growth might increase saving first life cycle theory implies that higher growth will increase the life time wealth of younger savers relative to older dissavers thereby increasing the aggregate saving rate second models of consumption with habit formation imply that consumption responds slowly to unexpected income growth so unanticipated growth can produce a higher saving rate at least in the short run i assess these explanations using time series of cross sections of household surveys from four countries the us britain taiwan and thailand i find evidence that higher growth will produce only small increases in aggregate saving rates

do investors see through mistakes in reported earnings this study investigates whether investors see through materially misstated earnings and whether they anticipate earnings restatements for firms that restate at least one annual report we find that investors are misled by mistakes in reported earnings at the time of initial earnings announcements investors react positively to the component of the favorable earnings surprise that will subsequently be restated and they attach the same valuation to it as to the true earnings surprise we also find that investors anticipate the subsequent downward restatements and start marking stock prices down several months before a restatement announcement so that the full impact of a restatement is about three times as large as the restatement announcement effect indeed we show that investors punish restating firms because the stock price gains that shareholders enjoy when firms initially announce overstated earnings are more than reversed by the time of the restatement announcement

the reaction of household consumption to predictable changes in social security taxes the key implication of rational expectations and the basic life cycle permanent income hypothesis that predictable changes in income have no effect on the growth rate of consumption expenditures is examined this implication is important for understanding the effectiveness and optimal timing of fiscal policy the causes and propagation of business cycles and the effects of income fluctuations on the growth rate of the economy using household level consumption data from the consumer expenditure survey whether expenditures on nondurable goods increase contemporaneously with predictable changes in social security tax withholding is tested it is found that households do change their consumption expenditures in response to the predictable fluctuations in income induced by the social security tax system

health insurance and savings over the life cycle a semiparametric smooth coefficient estimation individuals save for future uncertain health care expenses this is less efficient than pooling health risk through insurance the provision of comprehensive health insurance may raise welfare by providing the missing market to smooth out consumption through the life cycle we employ a semiparametric smooth coefficient model to examine the effects of the introduction of the national health insurance in taiwan in 1995 on savings and consumption over the life cycle the idea is to estimate the coefficients of health insurance which vary with age our results suggest that younger households are more sensitive to the risk reductions and that they demonstrate a greater response in the reduction of their precautionary saving copyright 2004 john wiley sons ltd

social security and private saving new time series evidence in an important article in the journal of political economy martin feldstein 1974 estimated that the introduction of the social security system had reduced personal saving by 50 percent with serious consequences for capital formation and output his conclusion was based on a consumer expenditure function estimated with u s time series data and incorporating a social security wealth variable of his construction this paper presents new evidence that casts considerable doubt on feldstein s conclusion first the social security wealth variable used by feldstein was seriously flawed as a result of a computer programming error simply correcting this error substantially changes the estimated effect of social security on saving second the statistical evidence depends upon assumptions which are embedded in the construction of the social security wealth variable assumptions that are not demonstrably preferable and are in some cases inferior to alternative assumptions these assumptions relate first to how individuals form their expectations about the social security benefits they expect to receive and the social security taxes they expect to pay and second to estimates of the number of workers dependent wives and surviving

the effect of social security on labor supply a cohort analysis of the notch generation this article uses aggregate birth year calendar year level data derived from the current population survey cps to estimate the effect of social security wealth on the labor supply of older men in the 1970s and 1980s the analysis focuses on measuring the impact of the 1977 amendments to the social security act which created a substantial unanticipated reduction in social security wealth for individuals born after 1916 this differential in benefits has become known as the benefit notch results indicate that labor supply continued to decline for the notch babies who received lower social security benefits than earlier cohorts

commercialization and the balance of women s dual roles in non income pooling west african households barked on structural adjustment programs of which agricultural liberalization has been a major component as previously depressed farmgate prices are allowed to rise increasing incentives for farm households to produce marketed crops such liberalization has the side effect of accelerating commercialization through raising households real incomes it is expected to improve rural peoples physical well being both women and men in west african farm

inefficiency of male and female labor supply in agricultural households evidence from uganda this article analyzes the efficiency of the intra household allocation of female and male labor inputs in agricultural production in a collective household model spouses optimal on farm labor supply is such that the marginal rate of technical substitution between male and female labor is equated over different crops using the uganda national household survey 2005 06 we test whether this condition holds by estimating production functions and controlling for endogeneity using a method proposed by gandhi navarro and rivers 2009 we find that women are less productive than men that there is more female labor input on low productivity parcels and that men are relatively more productive on female controlled plots compared with male controlled plots total farm output could be higher and pareto improvements could be possible if male labor was reallocated to female controlled plots and or female labor was reallocated to male controlled plots

the economic effects of social security toward a reconciliation of theory and measurement abstract in this paper we argue that actuarial valuation of social security benefit streams is theoretically inconsistent with the assumption of pure life cycle motives instead we show that the simple discounted value of future benefits ignoring the possibility of death is often a good approximation to the relevant concept of value this observation motivates a re examination of existing empirical evidence concerning the economic effects of social security we focus our attention on studies of distributional equity and personal saving behavior in both cases we argue that the use of simple rather than actuarial discounting of survival contingent income streams produces results that differ dramatically from previous findings specifically estimates based on actuarial valuation may overstate the importance of redistribution between and within generations and may understate the depressive effect of social security on personal wealth accumulation by a factor of three or more

do consumers respond to future income shocks evidence from social security reform in taiwan abstract a prediction of the basic permanent income hypothesis life cycle model is that an unexpected increase in future income produces an immediate increase in current consumption this paper tests that prediction using data from taiwan the 1985 labor standards law granted all employees in covered industries a windfall retirement severance benefit my results indicate that consumption did not increase immediately for those who were granted the windfall relative to those who received no windfall moreover consumption for those receiving a greater windfall did not increase relative to those who were granted less

how does future income affect current consumption this paper tests a straightforward implication of the basic life cycle model of consumption that current consumption depends on expected lifetime income the paper projects future income for a panel of households and finds that consumption is closely related to projected current income but unrelated to predictable changes in income however future income uncertainty has an important effect consumers facing greater income uncertainty consume less the results are consistent with buffer stock models of consumption like those of deaton 1991 or carroll 1992a 1992b where precautionary motives greatly reduce the willingness of prudent consumers to consume out of uncertain future income

how common are intentional gaap violations estimates from a dynamic model this paper uses data on detected misstatements earnings restatements and a dynamic model to estimate the extent of undetected misstatements that violate gaap the model features a ceo who can manipulate his firm s stock price by misstating earnings i find the ceo s expected cost of misleading investors is low the probability of detection over a five year horizon is 13 91 and the average misstatement if detected results in an 8 53 loss in the ceo s retirement wealth the low expected cost implies a high fraction of ceos who misstate earnings at least once at 60 with 2 22 of ceos starting to misstate earnings in each year 2003 2010 inflation in stock prices across ceos who misstate earnings at 2 02 and inflation in stock prices across all ceos at 0 77 wealthier ceos manipulate less and the average misstatement is larger in smaller firms this article is protected by copyright all rights reserved

informal capital sources and household investment evidence from taiwan abstract the purpose of this paper is to investigate the importance of informal financial channels in capital accumulation by household investors the focus is on the link between borrowing from informal financial institutions and households investment in capital stock the empirical evidence is drawn from micro data from taiwan for the period 1977 1992 during this period taiwan emerged rapidly as an industrialized economy despite of its relatively underdeveloped formal financial sector the data show that informal financial channels were heavily relied on by small business entrepreneurs in taiwan it is found that informal financial institutions as a source of funds are important for small investors capital accumulation

social security benefits consumption expenditure and the life cycle hypothesis this paper examines the impact of changes in social security benefits on aggregate consumption expenditure under the null hypothesis there should be no contemporaneous effect at the monthly frequency because increases in benefits have always been announced at least 6 weeks prior to payment the paper develops overwhelming evidence contrary to the null that benefits have affected aggregate spending the results have strong implications for several important issues including ricardian equivalence government policy irrelevance and the excess sensitivity of consumption to changes in income

national health insurance and precautionary saving evidence from taiwan abstract by reducing uncertainty about future medical expenses comprehensive health insurance can reduce households precautionary saving we examine this effect using taiwan micro data spanning the 1995 introduction of national health insurance the effects of national health insurance are identified using employment based variation in prior insurance coverage replacement of the households prior insurance coverage with national health insurance is exogenous to the household so our estimates are not subject to selection bias compared with the preceding government insurance programs national health insurance reduced saving by an average of 8 6 13 7 with the largest effects for households with the smallest saving

preference heterogeneity power and intrahousehold decision making in rural malaysia abstract this paper examines conjugal household responsibilities roles preference heterogeneity and intrahousehold power relations in rural malay families its three major contributions are to provide an effective initial indicator of separate spheres within the family develop and implement a method for measuring the extent of conjugal preference heterogeneity and illustrate the value of combining this direct measure of preference heterogeneity with a measure of power in estimating household expenditure patterns for three major items food schooling and housing improvement these three measurement innovations applied to the rural malaysia context demonstrate the potential for more direct efforts to model and measure intrahousehold decisions

the life cycle model of consumption and saving a central implication of life cycle models is that agents smooth consumption we review the empirical evidence on smoothing at frequencies from within the year up to across a lifetime we find that life cycle models particular those which incorporate realistic features of markets and goods have more empirical successes than failures we also show that some apparent deviations from theoretical predictions imply very small welfare losses for agents finally we emphasize that the coherence of life cycle models imposes an important discipline when incorporating new features into models

characteristics of firms correcting previously reported quarterly earnings abstract this paper analyzes economic characteristics of firms that correct previously reported quarterly earnings the basic findings are that relative to their industry the sample correcting firms are smaller less profitable have higher debt are slower growing and face more serious uncertainties their average stock returns between the issuance of erroneous quarterly reports and their correction are negative also correction disclosure frequently precedes sec or stockholder suits against firm management results are consistent with predictions based on the economic interests of management and their auditors

further evidence of excess sensitivity of consumption nonseparability among goods and heterogeneity across households the standard theoretical framework for analysing households intertemporal decisions is the life cycle permanent income model among its implications testing the model allows to analyse the response of consumption to fiscal policy however the empirical literature with microdata has yielded mixed results this article examines the sensitivity of the results to the assumption of separability among goods and of homogeneity across households for that purpose we test a rational expectations permanent income model with household data drawn from the spanish family expenditure survey this survey contains detailed information on total expenditure and the income presents large exogenous quarterly changes due to an institutional feature the article shows that assuming separability among commodities biases the test against the model when separability is not imposed we show that the rejection of the model depends on heterogeneity across households in terms of their members being unemployed or not for those

the mobilization of women s labor for cash crop production a game theoretic approach in the last decade or so economists have modeled phenomena such as household labor supply fertility behavior and child survival rates using the household as the unit of analysis this paper presents data that call into question the assumption that the household is a joint decision making unit which maximizes a neoclassical household utility function the data come from a study of the mobilization of women s labor by their husbands for irrigated rice production in north cameroon the first section of this paper describes briefly the massa rice and sorghum farming system and then considers the relationship between the amount of compensation women receive from their husbands for their labor on rice production and the amount of labor they allocate to rice production the findings suggest that a bargaining model may describe the intrahousehold relations of production and distribution better than the neoclassical model the second section specifies a nash bargaining model and contrasts it with the neoclassical model of the household using the bargaining framework the third section explores in more detail possible explanations of the allocative inefficiency which seems to characterize many of the rice cultivating households

are workers permanently scarred by job displacements this paper investigates whether workers suffer lasting scars following job displacements using david t ellwood s 1982 terminology scars represent persistent effects whereas blemishes are transitory adjustments which dissipate over time more precisely dislocated individuals are defined as scarred if they continue to earn less or to be unemployed more than their nondisplaced counterparts even after the conclusion of a several year adjustment period