incentives productivity and labor contracts the relationship between age earnings profiles and worker incentives is examined by contrasting wage and salary workers with the self employed it is argued that the steepness of wage and salary workers age earnings profiles reflects the desire to provide work incentives to those workers since self employed workers do not face this agency problem they are used as a benchmark to gauge productivity empirical support of the proposition is provided and the effects of human capital accumulation are separated empirically from incentive effects the most important conclusion is that under some strong assumptions most of the slope in age earnings profiles is accounted for by the desire to provide incentives rather than by on the job training

wages experience and seniority in this paper we study the sources of wage growth we identify the contribution to such growth of general sector specific and firm specific human capital our results are interpretable within the context of a model where the returns to human capital may be heterogeneous and where firms may offer different combinations of entry level wages and firm specific human capital development we allow for the possibility that wages are match specific and that workers move jobs as a result of identifying a better match to estimate the average returns to experience sector tenure and firm specific tenure within this context we develop an identification strategy which relies on the use of firm closures our data source is a new and unique administrative data set for germany that includes complete work histories as well as individual characteristics we find positive returns to experience and firm tenure for skilled workers the returns to experience for unskilled workers are small and insignificant after 2 years of experience their returns to sector tenure are also zero however their returns to firm tenure are substantial in this paper we study the growth of wages of young workers in germany knowing the extent and reasons for individual wage growth over the life cycle is important for a number of areas in economics just to mention two examples first it is a key element to understanding and designing active labour market programmes many such programmes offer temporary and often subsidized work opportunities examples are the new deal in the u k and the swedish programmes as well as a number of programmes in germany these programmes are based on the assumption that general skills are sufficiently enhanced while working so as to render the workers employable without a wage subsidy thus the success of these programmes depends on how skills improve on the job for the target population and whether this skill enhancement is transferable across jobs second it is a key to understanding the benefits and costs of job mobility this in turn matters for a number of policy issues including the design of pension policies relating for example to final salary schemes as a result of this widespread interest a large body of empirical research has focused on obtaining estimates for the returns of experience and seniority 1 our study uses a new and unique administrative data set with a number of features that are important for our analysis and allow us to avoid many problems encountered in earlier work in this field in our model wages grow due to learning by doing which may be heterogeneous across individuals moreover since firms offer different career profiles and because we allow for match specific effects on wages investments take the form of searching for the firm with the most desirable learning by doing characteristics career structure 2

are those paid more really more productive the case of experience this study uses computerized personnel microdata on the white male managerial and professional employees at a major u s corporation to address the following question can the additional earnings which are associated with more labor market experience at a point in time really be explained by higher productivity at the same point in time our answer to this question based on both cross sectional and longitudinal information is that performance plays a substantially smaller role in explaining cross sectional experience earnings differentials and earnings growth than is claimed by those who have adopted the human capital explanation of the experience earnings profile this response depends critically on our assumption that the performance ratings which supervisors give to their white male managerial and professional subordinates adequately reflect the subordinates relative productivity in the year of assessment we present a great deal of evidence which strongly supports this assumption

financial incentives and retirement evidence from federal civil service workers we examine the retirement behavior of federal civil service workers employed by the department of defense these workers provide an interesting population for studying retirement because they face relatively simple financial incentives high quality administrative data are available and they are not covered by the social security system we find that these workers respond to their financial incentives in a similar manner to what others have found when analyzing much different retirement systems we also find no evidence of excess retirement at key ages of the social security system which does not support the existence of societal wide norms regarding retirement

personnel policies at the union bank of australia evidence from the 1888 1900 entry cohorts this article uses personnel payroll and other records from the union bank of australia to examine internal labor markets it is shown that employment was characterized by limited ports of entry impersonal rules for pay and promotion well defined career ladders shielding from the external labor market and a long term employment relationship in addition tenure within the bank was rewarded considerably more than experience elsewhere and compensation increased considerably after 25 30 years tenure these facts are partially consistent with the human capital matching and contract theory models but cannot be fully explained by any one model

the surprising power of age dependent taxes this paper provides a new empirically driven application of the dynamic mirrleesian framework by studying a feasible and potentially powerful tax reform age dependent labour income taxation i show analytically how age dependence improves policy on both the intratemporal and intertemporal margins i use detailed numerical simulations calibrated with data from the u s panel study of income dynamics to generate robust policy implications age dependence 1 lowers marginal taxes on average and especially on high income young workers and 2 lowers average taxes on all young workers relative to older workers when private saving and borrowing are restricted finally i calculate and characterize the welfare gains from age dependence despite its simplicity age dependence generates a welfare gain equal to between 0 6 and 1 5 of aggregate annual consumption and it captures more than 60 of the gain from reform to the dynamic optimal policy the gains are due to substantial increases in both efficiency and equity when age dependence is restricted to be pareto improving the welfare gain is nearly as large

age seniority and labour costs lessons from the finnish it revolution the bad labour market performance of the workforce over 50 indicates that an aged workforce is often a burden for firms our paper seeks to investigate whether and why this is the case by providing evidence on the relation between age seniority and experience on the one hand and the main components of labour costs namely productivity and wages on the other for a sample of plants in three manufacturing industries forest industrial machinery and electronics in finland during the it revolution in the 1990s in average industries those not undergoing major technological shocks productivity and wages keep rising almost indefinitely with the accumulation of either seniority in the forest industry or experience in the industry producing industrial machinery in these industries the skill depreciation often associated with higher seniority beyond a certain threshold does not seemingly raise labour costs in electronics instead the seniority productivity profile shows a positive relation first and then becomes negative as one looks at plants with higher average seniority this body of evidence is consistent with the idea that fast technical change brings about accelerated skill depreciation of senior workers we cannot rule out however that our correlations are also simultaneously produced by worker movements across plants the seniority earnings profile in electronics is instead rather similar to that observed for the other industries a likely symptom of the prevailing finnish wage bargaining institutions which tend to make seniority one essential element of wage determination in the end seniority matters for labour costs not age as such but only in high tech industries not in the economy at large this is well tuned with previous research on gross flows of workers and jobs in the us and other oecd countries which unveiled the productivity driving role of resource reallocation or lack thereof between plants to improve the employability of the elderly at times of fast technical change public policy should thus divert resources away from preserving existing jobs and lend more attention to the retraining of old workers to ease their reallocation away from less productive plants or plants where they have become less productive into new jobs francesco daveri and mika maliranta

asymmetric sensitivity of ceo cash compensation to stock returns a discussion abstract leone wu and zimmerman leone a wu j zimmerman j 2005 asymmetric sensitivity of ceo cash compensation to stock returns journal of accounting and economics forthcoming find that cash compensation salary and bonus is more sensitive to price decreases than to price increases the authors interpret this result as consistent with boards of directors exercising discretion to reduce costly ex post settling up in cash compensation i discuss potential alternative explanations specifically the design of bonus contracts and the placement of the upper bound and the effect of the internal revenue code section 162 m that limits the deductibility of cash compensation over one million dollars i also link their results to the managerial power and rent extraction perspective

new evidence on pensions social security and the timing of retirement using a unique dataset that links the economic and demographic information of households with the details of their pension formulas i estimate the combined effect of social security and pension benefits on the probability of retirement in a cross section of the population near retirement age the accrual rate of retirement wealth is shown to be a significant determinant of the probability of retirement simulations of extensions in pension coverage comparable to those that occurred in the early postwar period can account for one fourth of the contemporaneous decline in labor force participation rates 1998 elsevier science s a all rights reserved

the effect of private wealth on the retirement rate an empirical analysis theoretical models predict a positive effect of the level of private wealth on retirement in many countries there is a trend towards the introduction of more individual freedom of choice in pension schemes the level of private wealth will become an increasingly important factor in the retirement decision empirical analysis of retirement behaviour of elderly workers so far has concentrated on properties of the pension system for a sample of elderly male workers in the netherlands we empirically analyse the effect of wealth on the retirement rate we find evidence for a positive effect of wealth on early retirement the author economica 2010 the london school of economics and political science

do changes in pension incentives affect retirement a longitudinal study of subjective retirement expectations this paper investigates the responsiveness of individuals retirement decisions to forward looking measures of pension accumulations in contrast to previous research we use within person variation in retirement incentives and are able to control for unobserved heterogeneity in tastes for retirement by studying a panel of subjective retirement expectations we confirm that individuals do respond as expected to pension incentives even when we control for individual fixed effects however the magnitude of these responses differs when estimated from models based on within person versus cross sectional variation the inclusion of fixed effects reduces the response by about half

the effect of social security on labor supply a cohort analysis of the notch generation this article uses aggregate birth year calendar year level data derived from the current population survey cps to estimate the effect of social security wealth on the labor supply of older men in the 1970s and 1980s the analysis focuses on measuring the impact of the 1977 amendments to the social security act which created a substantial unanticipated reduction in social security wealth for individuals born after 1916 this differential in benefits has become known as the benefit notch results indicate that labor supply continued to decline for the notch babies who received lower social security benefits than earlier cohorts

services offshoring and its impact on productivity and employment evidence from germany 1995 2006 economists have recently recognised services offshoring as an important influence on domestic labour market outcomes services are of particular interest since their significance has grown in terms of both quantity and quality only one and a half decades ago most services were considered non tradable but the emergence and development of new information and communication technologies has made many services internationally tradable the liberalisation of international trade in services trade has further accelerated the volume of services trade our econometric estimations focus on services offshoring by german manufacturing sectors we use revised input output data from 1995 to 2006 we first estimate the impact of services offshoring on labour productivity we then measure the effects of services offshoring on labour demand the results show that services offshoring increased sectoral labour productivity but reduced german manufacturing employment the overall results suggest that labour demand decreased over 1995 2006 because labour reducing productivity and substitution effects dominated labour augmenting scale effects from services offshoring

why have the labor force participation rates of older men increased since the mid 1990s this article seeks to explain the substantial increases in older men s labor force participation rates observed since the mid 1990s using data from the united states canada and the united kingdom i exploit the cohort effects driving recent increases in older women s participation rates to identify the effect of a wife s participation decision on her husband s participation decision i then decompose the changes in older married men s participation rates demonstrating that husbands responses to increases in wives participation in the labor force can explain one fourth one half and one third of the increase in the united states canada and the united kingdom respectively

payroll tax financed social insurance with variable retirement the optimal relationship between retirement benefits and retirement age is derived the model assumes ex ante identical workers zero one labor supply no private savings wages and payroll taxes constant over life random onset of an inability to work and the impossibility of distinguishing those unable to work from those choosing retirement this formulation is meant to capture some issues for retirement programs where governments commonly do not measure disability e g ages 65 70 with intertemporally additive preferences optimal benefits rise with the age of retirement but more slowly than would be actuarially fair a nonadditive example is also considered

rich and healthy better than poor and sick an empirical analysis of income health and the duration of the pension benefit spell i analyze the relationship between duration of the pension benefit spell and pension benefit claims from the german public pension system with a special emphasis on differential results with respect to health this relationship is crucial for a potential structural pattern of redistribution between different income and health groups induced by the public pension system evidence for such redistribution from poor to rich is present for most of the specifications in my analysis the most adequate specification is partially linear does therefore not impose any parametrical restrictions between duration and benefit claims and allows for potential endogeneity the relationship i extract is clearly positive i also find that redistribution from low income individuals to individuals with high income is more pronounced the worse the health status is despite longer benefit spells for pensioners in ill health

distance to retirement and older workers employment the case for delaying the retirement age this paper presents empirical evidence and a theoretical foundation in favor of the view that the retirement age decision affects older workers employment prior to retirement to the extent that there are search frictions on the labor market the return on jobs is determined by their expected duration the time to retirement is then key to understanding older workers employment countries with a retirement age of 60 are indeed characterized by lower employment rates for workers aged 55 59 based on the french labor force survey we show that the likelihood of employment is significantly affected by the distance to retirement in addition to age and other relevant variables we then extend mccall s job search model by explicitly integrating life cycle features with the retirement decision using simulations we show that the distance effect in interaction with the generosity of unemployment benefits and the depressed demand for older workers explains the low rate of employment just before the eligibility age for the social security pension finally we show that implementing actuarially fair schemes not only extends the retirement age but also encourages a more intensive job search by older unemployed workers jel j22 j26 h55

future social security entitlements and the retirement decision abstract a critical question for social security policy is how program incentives affect retirement behavior we use the health and retirement survey hrs to examine the impact of social security incentives on male retirement we implement forward looking models whereby individuals consider the incentives to work in all future years we find that forward looking incentive measures for social security are significant determinants of retirement we also find that private pension incentives have roughly similar effects our findings suggest that social security policies that increase the incentives to work at older ages can significantly reduce the labor force exit rate of older workers

the labor contract and true economic pension liabilities most pension covered workers in the united states are covered solely or primarily by defined benefit plans in these plans workers are typically promised a pension that is proportional to their years of service in the firm and their final wage depending upon how workers pay for it the existence of a pension in the labor contract may play either an important role or no role at all in the worker firm relationship this paper addresses the issue how workers pay for the cumulating pension benefit over their tenure cycle in the firm and derives several economic implications for the worker firm contract while the theory itself has ambiguous implications the data confirm the longstanding presumption that pensions offer strong incentives for the worker to complete the normal tenure cycle in the firm not to quit early but if this intuitive notion is accepted it is shown that a perhaps less intuitive notion is also true firms make workers longterm bondholders in the firm the same flow of worker pension savings that tie workers to the firm are not accounted for in the pension trust fund pension plans are significantly underfunded in a true economic sense this is a peculiar characteristic of the labor contract which raises several unanswered questions the paper also shows that the nature of the pension contract can play an important role in determining the wage service profile and the capitalized value of the firm recent contributions to the literature pose an interesting and unconventional view of pensions one which leads to the conclusion that pensions play a relatively minor role in the worker firm contract the argument has been implicitly made by burt barnow and ronald ehrenberg 1979 and william sharpe 1976 but has recently been stated more directly by jeremy bulow 1982 2 in essence their views rest on a legal interpretation of pension liabilities namely since the firm can legally terminate its pension plan anytime the firm s pension liabilities cannot exceed the present value of the nominal pension promises it would owe workers if the firm terminated the plan immediately if workers believe the firm will exercise its legal right it is intuitively apparent and easy to show that workers will deposit only that amount of compensation into the pension plan that they expect to receive upon immediate termination using this interpretation of pension plan liabilities pensions have no influence on whether the worker leaves or remains in the firm moreover it will be shown that if the pension contract is written in nominal terms reflecting the legal view workers are not bondholders in the firm pension plans are excessively overfunded an alternative view is that the pension plan is an implicit contract between the worker and the firm see for example jack treynor 1977 an implicit contract theory implies that workers anticipating careers with a firm will consider the package of wage and pension benefits they expect to collect over their life cycle it is shown that these expectations lead quite directly to several implications that the pension contract is written in real terms that firms intend to meet their pension promises and that the firm will re u s department of labor s 4521 washington d c 20210 the views expressed in this paper are my own and do not necessarily represent the views of the department of labor the paper has substantially benefited from the comments of pauline ippolito and discussions with jeremy bulow i am also indebted to robert clark gary fields alan gustman olivia mitchell james pesando john turner michael ward and participants at the labor relations workshop at cornell university and the law and economics workshop at the university of chicago for comments see my 1985a book 2 the argument is also implicit in other related papers see for example martin feldstein and randall morck 1982

the life cycle model of consumption and saving a central implication of life cycle models is that agents smooth consumption we review the empirical evidence on smoothing at frequencies from within the year up to across a lifetime we find that life cycle models particular those which incorporate realistic features of markets and goods have more empirical successes than failures we also show that some apparent deviations from theoretical predictions imply very small welfare losses for agents finally we emphasize that the coherence of life cycle models imposes an important discipline when incorporating new features into models

economic aspects of optimal disability benefits this paper analyzes optimal disability and retirement or welfare benefits with imperfect disability evaluation with some able workers judged disabled and some disabled workers judged able thus the levels of both disability and retirement benefits affect labor supply with anyone not working eligible for retirement benefits we analyze the optimal structure of benefits for a given disability screening mechanism and briefly consider the problem of optimal evaluations of disability evidence in the united states there is an overlap in eligibility for disability and retirement portions of social security more generally welfare is sometimes available to people denied disability benefits

the effects of health wealth and wages on labour supply and retirement behaviour this paper estimates a life cycle model of labour supply retirement and savings behaviour in which future health status and wages are uncertain individuals face a fixed cost of work and cannot borrow against future labour pension or social security income the method of simulated moments is used to match the life cycle profiles of labour force participation hours worked and assets that are estimated from the data to those that are generated by the model the model establishes that the tax structure of the social security system and pensions are key determinants of the high observed job exit rates at ages 62 and 65 removing the tax wedge embedded in the social security earnings test for individuals aged 65 and older would delay job exit by almost one year by contrast social security benefit levels health and borrowing constraints are less important determinants of job exit at older ages for example reducing social security benefits by 20 would cause workers to delay exit from the labour force by only three months

delayed payment contracts and a firm s propensity to hire older workers there are jobs for which firms employ older workers but tend not to hire new older workers this may be attributable in part to implicit contracts that discourage worker shirking and malfeasance by shifting compensation to the end of the contract such delayed payment contracts can introduce a form of fixed costs into the employment relationship much as with hiring and training costs these fixed costs lead firms to hire primarily young long term workers while firms employ older workers workers who are serving out the last years of their contract they tend not to hire them this paper presents empirical evidence that is consistent with this argument

the labeling effect of a child benefit system child benefit systems exist in many countries while they show a lot of differences in terms of eligibility rules amounts involved and implementation tax deduction tax credit or direct benefit the common motivation for their existence is to increase children s welfare in the dutch child benefit system the case i focus on in this paperone of the parents usually the mother is entitled to an untaxed child benefit amount which only depends on the child s age and the number of children in the household thus child support does not depend on household income marital status or labor market status as a result child benefit is exogenous to the household given the presence of children this is in contrast with the situation in many other countries including germany france the united kingdom and the united states where government provided child support is partly means tested see jonathan bradshaw et al 1993 in the netherlands child benefit is generally a nonnegligible addition to the household income the median share of child benefit in the total net income of households with children is 8 percent on the national level expenditures on child benefits amount to 1 2 percent of gnp the use of the child benefit is completely at the discretion of the parent there are no legal requirements that a certain amount be spent on particular goods or services nor does the government provide any guidelines regarding expenditure on children a policy question that arises is to what extent children benefit from child benefits standard microeconomic demand theory allows no role for effects of the composition of income given the fungibility of income sources it is only the sum of income components that is relevant in explaining expenditure patterns thus within that framework the answer would be that the marginal propensity to consume child goods from one guilder of child benefits is no different than from one guilder of any other income source in the more general class of gametheoretic models of household behavior however the composition of household income will generally affect expenditure patterns see e g shelly j lundberg and robert a pollak 1993 and martin browning et al 1994 if fathers and mothers have different preferences and mothers have control over child benefits the effect of child benefits on expenditures will differ from the effect of other income sources lundberg et al 1997 provide empirical evidence showing that a transfer of control over child benefits from fathers to mothers in the united kingdom due to a change in legislation resulted in a significant increase in expenditures on child clothing daniela del boca and christopher j flinn 1994 have analyzed the effect of income composition on expenditure decisions of divorced mothers they find that the coefficients associated with child support and alimony income differ from those for other income in engel curves for expenditures on childspecific goods their results can be explained in terms of a noncooperative nash model in which the child support transfer decisions of the noncustodial father and the expenditure decisions of the mother are determined simultaneously in contrast to del boca and flinn s analysis in which child support is a decision variable the present paper focuses on the possible differential effect of government provided child support which is truly exogenous in this paper i analyze the effects of child benefits on expenditures by running regressions in which child benefit enters as a separate explanatory variable the enipirical analysis is based on a time series of 17 cross section consumer expenditure surveys in the netherlands covering the period 1978 through 1994 it is important to note that in a single cross section it department of economics university of groningen p o b 800 9700 av groningen the netherlands e mail p kooreman eco rug nl i am indebted to two anonymous referees for constructive comments helpful comments were also provided by rob alessie maarten allers chris bojke werner de bondt bert schoonbeek and tom wansbeek i thank vincent linderhof for organizing the data financial support was provided by the dutch organization for scientific research nwo homes project grant

age dependent employment protection this paper examines the age related design of firing taxes by extending the theory of job creation and job destruction to account for a finite working life time we first argue that the potential employment gains related to employment protection are high for older workers as they are magnified by the proximity to retirement but higher firing taxes for these workers increase job destruction rates for the younger generations furthermore from a normative standpoint when firms cannot ex ante age direct their search the impact of each generation of unemployed workers on the average return on vacancies makes the internalization of the search costs for the other generations imperfect through the ex post nash bargaining process we show that the first best age profile of firing taxes is typically hump shaped partially in contradiction with existing policies in some european countries taking into account the fact that the human capital of older workers is more specific than general tends to exacerbate these results

what are occupational pension plan entitlements worth in britain the acquisition of rights by workers in private pension plans underpins retirement behaviour recruitment policy and wage structure but there is controversy as to how these individual pension rights should be valued the paper combines four data sets to calculate pension entitlements for a sample of 3000 british workers in 1987 expected scheme tenure is a key variable in valuation younger workers and women face greater initial uncertainty as to their pension outcomes which is resolved as job tenure lengthens given the distribution of tenure durations many employees would obtain higher returns in defined contribution schemes than in a typical final salary defined benefit plan

how social security and medicare affect retirement behavior in a world of incomplete markets this paper provides an empirical analysis of how the u s social security and medicare insurance system affect the labor supply of older males in the presence of incomplete markets for loans annuities and health insurance we estimate a detailed dynamic programming dp model of the joint labor supply and social security acceptance decision focusing on a sample of males in the low to middle income brackets whose only pension is social security the dp model delivers a rich set of predictions about the dynamics of retirement behavior and comparisons of actual vs predicted behavior show that the dp model is able to account for wide variety of phenomena observed in the data including the pronounced peaks in the distribution of retirement ages at 62 and 65 the ages of early and normal eligibility for social security benefits respectively we identify a significant fraction of health insurance constrained individuals who have no form of retiree health insurance other than medicare and who can only obtain fairly priced private health insurance via their employer s group health plan the combination of significant individual risk aversion and a long tailed pareto distribution of health care expenditures implies that there is a significant security value for these individuals to remain employed until they are eligible for medicare coverage at age 65 overall our model suggests that a number of heretofore puzzling aspects of retirement behavior can be viewed as artifacts of particular details of the social security rules whose incentive effects are especially strong for lower income individuals and those who do not have access to fairly priced loans annuities and health insurance