on monoculture and the structure of crop rotations an issue when seeking to identify rotation choice is persistence in yield enhancement and input saving carry over effects focusing on carry over length and the monoculture decision we use quasi convexity of choice functions to develop price independent and price dependent principles concerning rotation structure iowa corn soybean rotation data suggest corn has one year memory for corn soybeans in the prior year is yield increasing 16 5 bu ac and nitrogen saving 51 lb ac the hypothesis that soybean has two year memory cannot be rejected corn in the prior year two years increases yield by 7 bu ac 11 6 bu ac we simulate to find price and practice subsidy levels that support different rotations

economic hysteresis in hog production german hog production only responds in a very limited way to price fluctuations in the pork market the hog production concentrates on a few regions though it is not bound to special natural conditions such as soil quality furthermore the volume of production does not vary over time relatively high market risks sunk costs and the flexibility of the decision maker to defer investments characterize decision problems in hog production thus the real option approach is chosen to explain the inertia in production capacity by the use of panel data of specialized hog farms from the german farm accountancy data network an empirical investment model is estimated formally the model has the structure of a generalized ordered probit model this approach allows to test for economic hysteresis in the adjustment of hog production capacity the results confirm that uncertainty and flexibility widen the optimal range of inaction

the labour market in the new information economy the extension of information and communication technologies to economic activity is changing the labour market in important ways this article shows that computerization and use of the internet are associated with greater hours worked as well as higher wages that it occupations are rapidly increasing their share of employment that job search and recruitment are moving rapidly to the web with consequences for matching employers and employees and possibly most important of all that trade unions have begun to use the internet as a tool for servicing members and carrying their message to the public raising the possibility of a major change in the nature of the union movement

skill biased technological change and rising wage inequality some problems and puzzles the recent rise in wage inequality is usually attributed to skill biased technical change sbtc associated with new computer technologies we review the evidence for this hypothesis focusing on the implications of sbtc for overall wage inequality and for changes in wage differentials between groups a key problem for the sbtc hypothesis is that wage inequality stabilized in the 1990s despite continuing advances in computer technology sbtc also fails to explain the evolution of other dimensions of wage inequality including the gender and racial wage gaps and the age gradient in the return to education

input demand under yield and revenue insurance previous studies disagree on the effects of insurance on fertilizer application rates the effect of increased fertilizer on the probability of low yields primarily determines whether fertilizer and insurance are substitutes or complements we estimate conditional distributions of corn yields to determine if the technical relationship between yields and fertilizer supports the hypothesis that insurance increases optimal application rates our results indicate no support for this hypothesis at all nitrogen fertilizer rates and reasonable levels of risk aversion nitrogen fertilizer and insurance are substitutes suggesting that those who purchase insurance are likely to decrease nitrogen fertilizer applications

modeling conditional yield densities given the increasing interest in agricultural risk many have sought improved methods to characterize conditional crop yield densities while most have postulated the beta as a flexible alternative to the normal others have chosen nonparametric methods unfortunately yield data tends not to be sufficiently abundant to invalidate many reasonable parametric models this is problematic because conclusions from economic analyses which require estimated conditional yield densities tend not to be invariant to the modeling assumption we propose a semiparametric estimator that because of its theoretical properties and our simulation results enables one to empirically proceed with a higher degree of confidence copyright 2003 oxford university press

the effects of crop yield insurance designs on farmer participation and welfare the performance of individual farm yield and area yield crop insurance programs is evaluated for a representative iowa corn farm using numerical optimization of expected utility and simulation techniques several different contract design features are studied including the nature of the yield index which triggers insurance payouts alternative restrictions on coverage levels and alternative pricing structures performance is evaluated in terms of impacts on farmer participation and welfare and is examined in a portfolio setting where futures and options are also available to farmers the relative performance of different crop insurance designs is found to be particularly sensitive to restrictions on coverage levels the size of premium loadings and the degree to which individual farm yields are correlated with area yields

house price uncertainty timing of development and vacant land prices evidence for real options in seattle abstract recent theoretical work suggests that land development exercises a real option this paper utilizes a rich data set of parcel characteristics and real property transactions for the seattle area to tests two predictions of real options with respect to land markets greater price uncertainty should delay the timing of development and raise land prices i find evidence in support of both predictions a one standard deviation increase in uncertainty lowers the likelihood of development by 11 percent and raises vacant land prices by 1 6 percent these findings suggest that developers consider their real option to future buildings when deciding to invest

the impacts of different farm programs on cash rents county level annual observations for iowa from 1996 through 2000 were used to measure the impacts of farm program payments on cash rental rates the econometric analysis explicitly incorporates spatial autocorrelation cash rental rates were found to increase by almost one dollar per acre for each additional dollar per acre paid for market loss assistance and production flexibility contracts whereas conservation reserve program payments appear to exert no effect on cash rental rates a counterintuitive finding that warrants further examination is the small but negative impact of deficiency payments on cash rental rates

information in online labour markets online labour markets are virtual platforms that solve information problems to enable gains from trade in remote labour services they make employers and workers aware of each other and allow them to communicate contract and produce remotely recent research suggests however that organizing production to include remote work remains challenging because employers and workers in these markets continue to lack information that is less easily communicated employers appear unable to accurately anticipate the full costs and benefits to them of using the market prior to entry and continue to have difficulty evaluating worker applications even when experienced in these markets information is particularly incomplete when wage arbitrage opportunity is greatest

information technology and the changing workplace in canada firm level evidence recent advances in information and communication technology ict have had dramatic effects on both individual and workplace performance use of computers and the internet as general purpose technologies has spread rapidly across all sectors of the economy transforming business organization increasing competition and fostering innovation understanding the influence of ict on the dynamics of the workplace requires information on both demand and supply sides of the labor market but it is only recently that the study of both sides of the market has become feasible using linked employer employee data in this article we investigate the effects of new technology on firm productivity using the rich canadian workplace and employee survey for the period 1999 2003 we apply a mixed regression model which includes both firm and employee characteristics as well as their interactions with computer use our model allows us to control for unobserved heterogeneity at higher levels along many dimensions our findings indicate that computer use by employees has a positive and significant effect on the productivity of firms that the effect has not lost its momentum and that spillover effects are not significant moreover human capital enhances the effect of computer use on productivity but organizational changes do not interact with computer use in our sample period copyright 2011 the author 2011 published by oxford university press on behalf of associazione icc all rights reserved oxford university press

a real options analysis of coffee planting in vietnam vietnam grew from an insignificant to the world s second largest coffee producer during the 1990s to understand this growth this article examines vietnamese coffee growers investment decisions using real options theory the study finds that producers with variable costs of 19 cents lb and total cost of 29 3 cents lb would enter coffee production at a coffee price of 47 cents lb and exit at a coffee price of 14 cents lb most vietnamese growers appear to be sufficiently efficient to continue producing coffee even at relatively depressed price levels

the planting real option in cash rent valuation after entering into a farmland cash rent contract in the fall a tenant farmer has flexibility over the spring crop choice and the input application level failure to account for these options will bias estimates of what farmers should pay to rent land applying monte carlo simulation methods this study investigates the option values for these choices a multivariate gaussian copula mgc is employed to account for dependence among yields and prices results show that the average cash rent valuation for the real option approach is 33 6 higher than that for the conventional net present value npv method in which the input intensity option is 0 9 crop planting sequence is shown to impact the real option value

technology and the labour market the assessment this article reviews the evidence on how technology will affect labour markets in advanced democracies over the next 10 15 years in addition to assessing evidence on the impact of technology on the aggregate number of jobs we take a wider view to consider how the digital revolution will affect the quality and composition of jobs how and where we work and whether labour is supplied as part of a larger firm or as a self employed micro entrepreneur this assessment further aims to situate the papers covered in this issue of the oxford review of policy within the broader literature

gains from corporate headquarters relocations evidence from the stock market abstract this paper provides empirical evidence on investors perceptions of the relative advantages and costs of spatial agglomeration specifically we examine the stock price effects of headquarters relocations the stock market reaction is significantly positive when relocation decisions are attributed to cost savings indicating that cost savings available at less centralized locations outweigh any loss of enhancements associated with spatial clustering at urban centers in contrast decisions prompted by managerial self interest and desire for luxurious offices elicit an adverse reaction from investors

pricing commodity options when the underlying futures price exhibits time varying volatility standard commodity option pricing models assume proportional changes in the underlying futures price are i i d normal empirical evidence suggests commodity futures price movements exhibit excess kurtosis and time varying volatility this paper presents option pricing models when time varying volatility and excess kurtosis in the underlying futures price can be modeled as a garch process empirical results suggest that the garch option pricing model outperforms the standard black option pricing model which uses historical volatilities a closed form approximation model using a variance forecast generated from the estimated garch process also outperforms black s model and in many cases the general garch model as well

futures hedging under price basis and production risk we consider the hedging problem of a firm that has three sources of risk price basis and yield uncertainty an exact solution for the optimal futures hedge is derived under the assumption that the three random variables are jointly normally distributed and that utility is of the cara type unlike the mean variance approximation applied in previous research we show that the optimal hedge does depend on risk attitudes even when the agent perceives the futures price as being unbiased the theoretical results are applied empirically to the problem of hedging soybean production in iowa the exact solution relying on cara and normality is compared with numerical solutions under lognormal distributions and crra utility

make money surfing the web the impact of internet use on the earnings of u s workers much research on the digital divide presumes that adults who do not use the internet are economically disadvantaged yet little research has tested this premise after discussing several mechanisms that might produce differences in earnings growth between workers who do and do not use the internet we use data from the current population survey to examine the impact of internet use on changes in earnings over 13 month intervals at the end of the internet boom our analyses reveal robustly significant positive associations between web use and earnings growth indicating that some skills and behaviors associated with internet use were rewarded by the labor market consistent with human capital theory current use at work had the strongest effect on earnings in contrast to economic theory which has led economists to focus exclusively on effects of contemporaneous workplace technology use workers who used the internet only at home also did better suggesting that users may have benefited from superior

futures markets and production decisions this paper investigates the use of futures prices in making production decisions we derive a preference independent production rule for firms that face both demand and production uncertainty this rule is compared to a simple marginal cost equals future price rule which previously has been suggested for firms with deterministic output data for agricultural producers are used to examine the importance of output uncertainty in the determination of the proper production rule our analysis suggests that for many crops the simple rule is sufficiently accurate to be a useful guide to production

applying the copula approach to sample selection modelling the limited availability of tractable multivariate distributions undermines the validity of the standard parametric approach to sample selection modelling copula distributions can be very useful in situations where the applied researcher has a prior on the distributional form of the margins since the modelling of the latter is separated from that of the dependence structure the present article first presents an application to female work data afterwards the approach is analysed in an application to contingent valuation data on recreational values of forests it is shown that the copula approach is especially beneficial in case of strong departures from the hypothesis of normality

investment decisions in hog finishing an application of the real options approach in this paper option pricing theory is applied to an investment problem in hog production a stochastic simulation model capable of pricing american type options is developed this is achieved by recursive calculation of the exercise frontier the model is used to determine the investment trigger and the disinvestment trigger for a pig fattening barn under german market conditions it turns out that the investment trigger taking into account the value of waiting in an uncertain environment can be considerably higher compared to classical investment criteria such as the net present value this offers an explanation as to why farmers are indeed reluctant to invest in hog production another finding is the sensitivity of the option prices with respect to the stochastic process that is assumed for revenues and variable costs of the production activity

the returns to computer use revisited have pencils changed the wage structure too are the large measured wage differentials for on the job computer use a true return to computer skills or do they just reflect that higher wage workers use computers on their jobs we examine this issue with three large cross sectional surveys from germany first we confirm that the estimated wage differential associated with computer use in germany is very similar to the u s differential second we also measure large differentials for on the job use of calculators telephones pens or pencils or for those who work while sitting down we argue that these findings cast some doubt on the literal interpretation of the computer use wage differential as reflecting true returns to computer use or skill

a real options approach to the valuation of a forestry investment abstract the theory of real options is used to model the optimal tree harvesting decision the value of the option to harvest is estimated using a dynamic programming approach and a general numerical solution technique suitable for any type of stochastic process for prices the conditions under which the optimal harvest time is independent of price are examined in addition the impact of assuming future lumber prices are mean reverting is considered it is found that option value and optimal cutting time are significantly different under the mean reversion assumption compared to geometric brownian motion

the hedging role of options and futures under joint price basis and production risk this paper analyzes the optimal production and hedging decisions for firms facing futures price basis and production risk assuming futures and options can be used using constant absolute risk aversion utility and normal distributions the authors derive an exact solution and show that joint production and price risk lead to a hedging role for options risk averse firms that can use each hedging instrument will generally have higher expected output using iowa data for soybeans the parameters of the joint distribution of future prices cash prices and yields are estimated and the results are used to approximate optimal hedging decisions for soybean producers copyright 1995 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

on solving the multirotational timber harvesting problem with stochastic prices a linear complementarity formulation this article develops a two factor real options model of the harvesting decision over infinite rotations assuming a known stochastic price process and using a rigorous hamilton jacobi bellman methodology the harvesting problem is formulated as a linear complementarity problem that is solved numerically using a fully implicit finite difference method this approach is contrasted with the markov decision process models commonly used in the literature the model is used to estimate the value of a representative stand in ontario s boreal forest both when there is complete flexibility regarding harvesting time and when regulations dictate the harvesting date

emulation inequality and work hours was thorsten veblen right we investigate the manner in which a desire to emulate the rich influences individuals allocation of time between labour and leisure greater inequality inducing longer work hours as a result data on work hours in ten countries over the period 1963 98 show that greater inequality is indeed associated longer work hours these veblen effects are large and the estimates are robust using country fixed effects and other specifications because consumption inequality is a public bad a social welfare optimum cannot be implemented by a flat tax on consumption but may be accomplished by more complicated progressive consumption taxes at the close of the nineteenth century thorsten veblen proposed what he termed pecuniary emulation as the foundation of a theory of consumption spending he maintained is driven by relative status considerations that is by the desire to be a particular type of person as much as bythedesire to enjoytheconsumer goodsper se the joneses with whom one had to keep up were not the neighbours but the rich theirleveloflivingbecamethenever attainableobjectiveinaconsumptionarmsrace among the less well to do in the theory of the leisure class he wrote the motive is emulation the stimulus of an invidious comparison especially in any community in which class distinctions are quite vague all canons and reputability and decency and all standards of consumption are traced back by insensible gradations to the usages and thoughts of the highest social and pecuniary class the wealthy leisure class 1934 p 81 while valued by some economists as capturing common sense aspects of consumption as a form of status seeking veblen s view of social preferences was soon eclipsed by the simpler and more tractable neoclassical theory of the consumer relegated to the underworld of economics veblen s ideas have nonetheless resonated over the ensuing years in the writing of duesenberry 1949 leibenstein 1950 and galbraith 1958 at the middle of the past century and schor 1998