may the pro poor impacts of trade liberalisation vanish because of imperfect information abstract in this paper we try to evaluate changes in welfare gains and their distribution due to trade liberalisation when imperfect information is considered the results of two versions of a computable general equilibrium cge model using the gtap database and representing goods as well as capital flows are compared in the first version a standard world cge approach is followed in the second version we included risk aversion imperfect information and production lag in the agricultural sector after a brief description of the two versions changes in welfare represented by the income of two types of household middle low and middle high in three regions europe united states rest of the world after agricultural trade liberalisation are presented theoretical and political consequences of the results are discussed

the impact of transport and transaction cost reductions on food markets in developing countries evidence for tempered expectations for burkina faso reductions in transport and transaction costs are expected to have a major effect on the functioning of food markets in developing countries for burkina faso this is a relevant issue as it may have important consequences for the food markets in urban and rural deficit areas a partial equilibrium model is presented to analyze the short term effects of reduced costs on price formation inter regional cereal trade and farmers and traders storage strategies our results show that the high expectations with regard to the direct effects of cost reductions on food prices and food availability require some nuance the effects of a reduction of transport costs will be small moreover also the unintended negative consequences on the competitive position of farmers and traders in other regions that do not profit from road construction should be taken into account finally it is concluded that only if transport and transaction costs are reduced simultaneously will both the consumers and farmers benefit significantly c 2004 elsevier b v all rights reserved

economic development institutional change and the political economy of agricultural protection an econometric study of belgium since the 19th century this empirical study uses 100 years of annual data on 11 agricultural commodities from belgium to measure the impact of structural changes coinciding with economic development and changes in political institutions on agricultural protection the analysis shows that changes in agricultural protection are caused by a combination of factors governments have increased protection and support to farmers when world market prices for their commodities fell and vice versa offsetting market effects on producer incomes other economic determinants were the share of the commodities in total consumer expenditures negative effect and in total output of the economy positive effect with belgium a small economy there was no impact of the trade position changes in political institutions have affected agricultural protection democratic reforms which induced a significant shift in the political balance towards agricultural interests such as the introduction of the one man one vote system led to an increase in agricultural protection the integration of belgian agricultural policies in the common agricultural policy in 1968 coincided with an increase in protection ceteris paribus both institutional factors related to changes in access to and information about the decision making at the eu level and structural changes in the agricultural and food economy may explain this effect

the effect of oil price increases on four oil poor developing countries a comparative analysis abstract computable general equilibrium models are used to compare for four oil poor developing countries ivory coast kenya south korea turkey the short and medium run adjustment pressures arising from the second oil price shock the results emphasize the extent of expenditure switching and expenditure and wage reduction needed to accomodate the shock in each country cross country variations in the extent of required adjustment are traced to key structural differences between the four economies

cyclical factor utilization abstract we introduce procyclical labor and capital utilization as well as costs of rapidly increasing employment into a business cycle model plausible variations in factor utilization enable us to explain observed variability of real gnp with considerably smaller economy wide disturbances the costs of adjustment create very interesting and realistic lead and lag relationships employment does not peak until a full quarter after output workweeks effort capital utilization and productivity all sharply lead the business cycle

the effects of an increase in energy efficiency on the kenya economy abstract there are reasons to believe that improved energy efficiency still is an important energy development policy despite stable oil prices abundant oil supplies and end of the cold war the political reasons are uncertainty of the current gulf situation and prevalent wars in the former eastern bloc countries increasing concern over global environmental problems the existence of imperfect energy markets and the desire for rapid economic growth in developing countries are the other reasons this paper analyses the effects of energy management policies on the kenyan economy using a computable general equilibrium model simulations show that an increase in energy efficiency leads to reduced dependence on foreign energy sources promotion of reliable domestic energy sources promotion of conservation of all forms of energy saves scarce foreign currency and preserves the environment

one money one market the effect of common currencies on trade currency unions their dramatic effect on international trade a gravity model is used to assess the separate effects of exchange rate volatility and currency unions on international trade the panel data bilateral observations for five years during 1970 90 covering 186 countries includes 300 observations in which both countries use the same currency i find a large positive effect of a currency union on international trade and a small negative effect of exchange rate volatility even after controlling for a host of features including the endogenous nature of the exchange rate regime these effects statistically significant imply that two countries sharing the same currency trade three times as much as they would with different currencies currency unions like the european emu may thus lead to a large increase in international trade with all that that entails andrew rose

insecurity and the pattern of trade an empirical investigation corruption and imperfect contract enforcement dramatically reduce international trade this paper estimates the reduction using a structural model of import demand in which insecurity acts as a hidden tax on trade we find that inadequate institutions constrain trade as much as tariffs do we also find that omission of indices of institutional quality biases the estimates of typical gravity models obscuring a negative relationship between per capita income and the share of total expenditure devoted to traded goods finally we argue that cross country variation in the effectiveness of institutions and the consequent variation in the prices of traded goods offer a simple explanation for the stylized fact that high income capital abundant countries trade disproportionately with each other

immigrant links to the home country empirical implications for u s bilateral trade flows immigrants ties to their home countries can play a key role in fostering bilateral trade linkages immigrant ties include knowledge of home country markets language preferences and business contacts that have the potential to decrease trading transaction costs empirical results for the united states suggest that immigrant links have historically been important in increasing bilateral trade flows with immigrants home countries copyright 1994 by mit press

the effects of energy taxes on the kenyan economy a cge analysis abstract the paper utilizes a computable general equilibrium model to evaluate the impact of the second oil price shock and consequent energy tax policies on the kenyan economy simulations show that dramatic change in energy prices and consequent changes in domestic energy consumption generate sequential feedbacks in the production process and affect economic structures terms of trade deteriorate the balance of payments deficit increases and national income falls energy import tariffs and a sales tax are effective policy instruments in controlling energy consumption and increasing government revenue both energy policies have net negative effects on other economic activities similar to those observed under the oil price shock as long as there are no other economically feasible sources of energy supplies there are economic losses associated with less petroleum product consumption in a net oil importing developing economy with oil intensive production technology

trade law and product complexity abstract how does the quality of national institutions that enforce the rule of law influence international trade anderson and marcouiller argue that bad institutions located in the importer s country deter international trade because they enable economic predators to steal and extort rents at the importer s border we complement this research and show how good institutions located in the exporter s country enhance international trade in particular trade in complex products whose characteristics are difficult to fully specify in a contract we argue that both exporter and importer institutions affect international as well as domestic transaction costs in complex and simple product markets international transaction costs are a part of the costs of trade domestic transaction costs affect complex and simple products differently thereby changing a country s comparative advantage in producing such goods we find ample empirical evidence for these predictions countries that have good institutions tend to

gcc energy demand outlook to 2000 abstract energy production and consumption patterns in the gcc countries are analyzed based on this analysis the demand for energy is estimated econometrically and forecast to 2000 concluding that the gcc has the potential to be a major supplier of oil and gas for many years

informal export barriers and poverty the author investigates the poverty impacts of informal export barriers like transport costs cumbersome customs practices costly regulations and bribes he models these informal barriers as export taxes that distort the efficient allocation of resources in low income agricultural economies this distortion lowers wages and household agricultural income thereby leading to higher poverty the author investigates the poverty impacts of improving export procedures in moldova this is a unique case study poverty is widespread half of the moldovan population lives in poverty the country is very open and relies on agricultural exports for growth formal trade barriers are fairly liberalized and informal export barriers are common and widespread the author finds that improving export practices would benefit the average moldovan household across the whole income distribution for example halving informal export barriers would cause poverty to decline from 48 3 percent of the population to between 43 3 and 45 5 percent potentially lifting 100 000 180 000 individuals out of poverty

currency unions and trade how large is the treatment effect currency unions and trade what can the data say the impact of a common currency on trade can be grossly mismeasured if countries that belong to currency unions are systematically different from those that do not and if the relationship between trade and its observable determinants is complex i argue that such complications are plausible and likely to distort the empirical results of a recent economic policy paper by andrew rose issue 30 2000 pp 7 45 using techniques designed to be robust in this situation i find that the effects of common currency on international trade are considerably less dramatic and much less precisely estimated torsten persson i have always maintained that the measured effect of a single currency on trade appears implausibly large but i am not convinced by torsten persson s diagnosis and proposed solution i apply a variety of estimation techniques to a new larger data set where many more instances of currency union creation and abandonment make it possible to rely on time series as well as cross sectional evidence the results are similar to my earlier ones the effect of a single currency on trade is large andrew rose

to spray or not to spray pesticides banana exports and food safety how governments regulate food safety and environmental protection including pesticide residue levels has important implications for trade the world trade organization wto ministerial held in doha qatar in november 2001 included statements on standards and their impact on market access for developing countries these issues will continue to be important in trade policy dialogues it is assumed and evidence from recent analysis confirms that food safety standards can affect the ability of agricultural producers to meet regulatory standards set by importing countries the authors explore a fundamental question in food safety and environmental standards do regulations on pesticide have an effect on trade they examine regulatory data from 11 oecd importing countries and trade data from 19 exporting countries the results suggest that a 10 percent increase in regulatory stringency tighter restrictions on the pesticide chlorpyrifos leads to a decrease in banana imports by 14 8 percent this represents a significant impact on trade and affect prospects of developing countries who continue to rely on exports of agricultural commodities such as bananas the findings also suggest that the lack of consensus on international standards and divergent national regulations on pesticides is costly for example the authors estimate that if the world were to adopt a standard at a level of regulatory stringency suggested by codex the body charged with setting global standards in this area in contrast with one set at the level in place in the european union there would be a u s 5 3 billion loss in world exports

saving two in a billion quantifying the trade effect of european food safety standards on african exports abstract a growing concern over health risks associated with food products has prompted close examination of sanitary and phytosanitary standards in industrialized countries this paper quantifies the impact of a new harmonized aflatoxin standard set by the eu on food exports from africa we employ a gravity model to estimate the impact of changes in differing levels of protection based on the eu standard in contrast to those suggested by international standards the analysis is based on trade and regulatory survey data for 15 european countries and nine african countries between 1989 and 1998 our results suggest that the implementation of the new aflatoxin standard in the eu will have a negative impact on african exports of cereals dried fruits and nuts to europe the new eu standard which would reduce health risk by approximately 1 4 deaths per billion a year will decrease these african exports by 64 or us 670 million in contrast to regulation set through an international standard

energy demand in greece abstract this paper examines the impact of the two energy crises 1973 74 and 1978 79 on energy demand in greece initially some specific characteristics of energy consumption patterns before and after 1973 are presented and compared then demand parameters for hydroelectric energy liquid fuels and solid fuels were estimated using data for the period 1963 1984 and alternative econometric methods ols 2sls fiml to ensure that estimates do not vary across different estimation methods appropriate tests were used to examine whether a structural change in energy demand has occured following either of the two crises the results indicate that while consumption patterns may be different due to price and income changes after the crises the parameters of energy demand in greece have remained unchanged

informal barriers and agricultural trade does monetary integration matter eu enlargement and the recent sovereign debt crisis of euro zone countries have revived the debate around the european monetary union emu in this article we ask how informal barriers to agricultural and food trade have changed since the introduction of the common european currency and whether this evolution can be attributed to monetary integration we focus on the foreign trade of the 11 emu founder countries over a nine year period covering the creation of the emu and find a diminishing marginal trade impact of both information and institutional barriers we find a lower level of trade barriers but cannot attribute this outcome to the introduction to the euro

effect of oil price increases on developing countries a comment in a recent paper dick et al 2 argued that differences in the impact of the second oil price shock on gdp in four selected developing countries were mainly determined by the openness of each country s economy this comment suggests that for the countries in question the cost share of oil in gdp is likely to be the more significant variable

a gravity model analysis of meat trade policies abstract the conventional gravity model is revised for a single commodity and applied to meat markets to determine factors affecting trade flows of meat this study demonstrates that the gravity model for a single agricultural commodity can be parameterized more effectively by using time series and cross section data rather than cross section data alone this study reveals that trade policies and subsidies used by exporting and importing countries livestock production capacity in countries and distances play an important role in determining trade flows of meat long term agreements achieve the highest performance toward enhancing international meat trade import quotas and the hoof and mouth disease on beef greatly impair meat trade