asset pricing implications of pareto optimality with private information we compare the empirical performance of a standard incomplete markets asset pricing model with that of a novel model with constrained pareto optimal allocations we represent the models stochastic discount factors in terms of the cross sectional distribution of consumption and use these representations to evaluate the models empirical implications the first model is inconsistent with the equity premium in the united states united kingdom and italy the second model is consistent with the equity premium and the risk free rate in all three countries if the coefficient of relative risk aversion is roughly 5 and the quarterly discount factor is less than 0 5

job displacement risk and severance pay abstract this paper is a quantitative equilibrium study of the insurance role of severance pay when workers face displacement risk and markets are incomplete a key feature of our model is that in line with an established empirical literature job displacement entails a persistent fall in earnings upon re employment due to the loss of tenure the model is solved numerically and calibrated to the us economy in contrast to previous studies that have analyzed severance payments in the absence of persistent earning losses we find that the welfare gains from the insurance against job displacement afforded by severance pay are sizable

risk sharing by households within and across regions and industries abstract cochrane 1991 journal of political economy 99 957 976 and mace 1991 journal of political economy 99 928 956 test if risk sharing across households is complete in the sense that household consumption moves one for one with aggregate consumption in their studies the source of income risk is idiosyncratic and agents can share risk across the entire economy using a sample of households from the panel study on income dynamics psid we explore whether households share the risk associated with their industries and regions across households in other regions and industries we find that a large fraction of risk faced by households is not shared across regions and industries

trends in household saving don t justify tax incentives to boost saving despite diverse trends in household saving in oecd countries many governments are introducing tax incentives designed to boost saving by particular groups such schemes have been justified by many trends including increasing income inequality ageing populations and greater cross border competition it is dangerous however to base policy on what is happening to aggregate household saving alone first personal saving should be viewed within a lifecycle context saving may look inadequate today but households may already have made plans to redress this in future second data on aggregate saving conceal significant differences between different household groups only disaggregation yields reliable inferences on which policy can be based in particular it is impossible to assess the consequences of demographic changes without analysis that distinguishes between different generations we reassess household saving by computing the evolution of lifetime profiles of consumption income and saving of different cohorts over time and then analyse the effect of demographic and other changes we find little evidence for the assertion that tax incentives to promote national saving are needed now to stave off a future drought in household saving

income dynamics and life cycle inequality mechanisms and controversies this study focuses on the transmission of inequality over the working life a model of constrained intertemporal choice is used to provide structure to the distributional dynamics of wages earnings income and consumption the mechanisms used to insure labour market shocks are examined in a partial insurance setting where the manner and scope for insurance depends on the access to credit the information available to consumers and the durability of income shocks drawing on recent research family labour supply the credit market and the tax system are all shown to play a key role these mechanisms vary in importance across different points of the life cycle and the business cycle 2014 the author s the economic journal published by john wiley sons ltd on behalf of royal economic society

earnings instability and earnings inequality of males in the united states 1967 1991 although much research has focused on recent increases in annual earnings inequality in the united states the increases could have come from either of two sources the distribution of lifetime earnings could have become more unequal or the receipt of lifetime earnings could have become more unstable based on an analysis of the 1968 92 panel study of income dynamics we find that lifetime earnings inequality increased during the early 1980s and that earnings instability increased during the 1970s we also examine how these trends are related to changes in the distribution of wages and hours and the returns to education

computing multi period information constrained optima this paper presents a detailed theoretical derivation and justification for methods used to compute solutions to a multi period including infinite period continuum agent unobservedeffort economy actual solutions are displayed illustrating cross sectional variability in consumption and labour effort in the population at a point in time and variability for a typical individual over time the optimal tradeoff between insurance and incentives is explored and the issue of excess variability is addressed by consideration of the analogue full information economy and various restricted contracting regimes

has consumption inequality mirrored income inequality we revisit to what extent the increase in income inequality since 1980 was mirrored by consumption inequality we do so by constructing an alternative measure of consumption expenditure using a demand system to correct for systematic measurement error in the consumer expenditure survey our estimation exploits the relative expenditure of high and low income households on luxuries versus necessities this double differencing corrects for measurement error that can vary over time by good and income we find consumption inequality tracked income inequality much more closely than estimated by direct responses on expenditures jel d31 d63 e21

the effect of financial liberalization on capital flight in african economies summary in this paper we assess the effects of financial liberalization on capital flight in african economies a portfolio model in which capital flight is one of the assets is estimated on a sample of nine african countries for 1970 91 the estimation results suggest that financial liberalization induces a reduction in capital flight after augmenting the model with submodels for the banking sector the government sector and the external sector we conduct simulation experiments involving an interest rate deregulation a decrease in reserve requirements and a change in exchange rate policy the simulation results show that capital flight is reduced by all the three financial liberalization measures the effects however are very small considering both the estimation and simulation results we conclude that financial liberalization policies are useful in attempts to reduce capital flight in african economies but per se the policies may not be the panacea

the effectiveness of government debt and transfers as insurance abstract government debt and redistributive taxation can help people to smooth consumption when facing uninsurable individual specific risk i examine the effects that variations in public debt and transfers have on risk sharing efficiency and the distribution of resources i find that risk sharing can be improved significantly by both debt and transfers but that debt has adverse effects on equity when used in isolation debt will enhance welfare if transfers are lower than optimal however the beneficial effects of public debt vanish if transfers are used optimally

sources of earnings inequality estimates from an on the job search model of the us labor market since the early 1980s the labor market in the united states has seen a substantial increase in earnings dispersion we study the issue by developing an on the job search model of the us labor market that allows for wage and employment mobility as a result of optimal individual behavior we estimate its structural parameters on psid data at different points in time to clarify the sources of the evolution of earnings inequality and instability between 1987 and 1996 this procedure allows to compute lifetime measure of inequality on top of the usual cross sectional measure of inequality and provide counterfactual experiments that evaluate the contribution of different parameters to changes over time by taking into account some equilibrium effects we find that the increase in lifetime inequality and in cross sectional inequality have been generated by different sources and that these sources are different by skills changes in the wage offer distribution are the main determinant of the increase in inequality for skilled workers while both mobility changes and wage offer distribution changes are needed to explain changes for the unskilled

consumption heterogeneity employment dynamics and macroeconomic co movement abstract real business cycle models rely on total factor productivity tfp shocks to explain the observed co movement among consumption investment and hours however an emerging body of evidence identifies investment shocks as important drivers of business cycles this paper shows that a neoclassical model consistent with observed heterogeneity in labor supply and consumption across employed and non employed can generate co movement in response non tfp shocks estimation reveals fluctuations in the marginal efficiency of investment that explain the bulk of business cycle variance in consumption investment and hours a corollary of the model s empirical success is the labor wedge that is not important at business cycle frequencies

testing efficient risk sharing with heterogeneous risk preferences comment abstract mazzocco and saini 2012 propose and implement a test of efficient risk sharing that allows for preference heterogeneity they motivate their approach as yielding different results from those of a standard efficiency test with homogeneous preferences we show that the standard efficiency test results are misreported in their paper and that the correctly reported results do not present as compelling a case for the importance of accounting for heterogeneous preferences jel d12 d81 g22 o12 o18 r23 z13

earnings and consumption dynamics a nonlinear panel data framework we develop a new quantile based panel data framework to study the nature of income persistence and the transmission of income shocks to consumption log earnings are the sum of a general markovian persistent component and a transitory innovation the persistence of past shocks to earnings is allowed to vary according to the size and sign of the current shock consumption is modeled as an age dependent nonlinear function of assets unobservable tastes and the two earnings components we establish the nonparametric identification of the nonlinear earnings process and of the consumption policy rule exploiting the enhanced consumption and asset data in recent waves of the panel study of income dynamics we find that the earnings process features nonlinear persistence and conditional skewness we confirm these results using population register data from norway we then show that the impact of earnings shocks varies substantially across earnings histories and that this nonlinearity drives heterogeneous consumption responses the framework provides new empirical measures of partial insurance in which the transmission of income shocks to consumption varies systematically with assets the level of the shock and the history of past shocks

temptation and self control some evidence and applications this paper studies the empirical relevance of temptation and self control using household level data from the consumer expenditure survey we construct an infinite horizon consumption savings model that allows but does not require temptation and self control in preferences in the presence of temptation a wealth consumption ratio in addition to consumption growth becomes a determinant of the asset pricing kernel and the importance of this additional pricing factor depends on the strength of temptation to identify the presence of temptation we exploit an implication of the theory that a more tempted individual should be more likely to hold commitment assets such as individual retirement account ira or 401 k accounts our estimation provides empirical support for temptation preferences based on our estimates we explore some quantitative implications of this class of preferences for capital accumulation in a neoclassical growth model and the welfare cost of the business cycle

relative wage movements and the distribution of consumption we analyze how relative wage movements among birth cohorts and education groups affected the distribution of household consumption and economic welfare our empirical work draws on the best available cross sectional data sets to construct synthetic panel data on u s consumption labor supply and wages during the 1980s we find that low frequency movements in the cohort education structure of pretax hourly wages among men drove large changes in the distribution of household consumption the results constitute a spectacular failure of between group consumption insurance a failure not explained by existing theories of informationally constrained optimal consumption behavior a welfare analysis indicates that the cost of between group consumption variability is larger than the cost of aggregate consumption variability by two orders of magnitude

testing efficient risk sharing with heterogeneous risk preferences previous papers have tested e cient risk sharing under the assumption of identical risk preferences in this paper we show that if in the data households have heterogeneous risk preferences the tests proposed in the past reject e ciency even if households share risk e ciently to address this issue we propose a method that enables one to test e ciency even when households have difierent preferences for risk the method is composed of three tests the flrst one can be used to determine whether in the data under investigation households have homogeneous risk preferences the second and third test can be used to evaluate e cient risk sharing when the hypothesis of homogeneous risk preferences is rejected we use this method to test e cient risk sharing in rural india using the flrst test we strongly reject the hypothesis of identical risk preferences we then test e ciency with and without the assumption of preference homogeneity in the flrst case we reject e cient risk sharing at the village and caste level in the second case we still reject e ciency at the village level but we cannot reject this hypothesis at the caste level this flnding suggests that the relevant risk sharing unit in rural india is the caste and not the village

experimental identification of asymmetric information evidence on crop insurance in the philippines abstract i study asymmetric information in crop insurance in the philippines using a two level randomized field experiment and incentivized preference elicitation in this first experimental study of moral hazard in non health insurance preventable damages double on randomly insured plots among farmers with high trust in the insurance provider farmers prefer insurance on plots that are at risk of floods and crop diseases a sign of classic adverse selection and plots that are far away from home a sign of selection on anticipated moral hazard behavior resulting in 72 higher payouts on preferred plots overcoming these challenges requires leveraging new technologies

household debt and income inequality 1963 2003 i construct an economy with heterogeneous agents that mimics the time series behavior of the earnings distribution in the united states from 1963 to 2003 agents face aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks and accumulate real and financial assets i estimate the shocks that drive the model using data on income inequality aggregate income and measures of financial liberalization i show how the model economy can replicate two empirical facts the trend and cyclical behavior of household debt and the diverging patterns in consumption and wealth inequality over time while business cycle fluctuations can account for the short run changes in household debt its prolonged rise of the 1980s and the 1990s can be quantitatively explained only by the concurrent increase in income inequality

human capital risk contract enforcement and the macroeconomy we use data from the survey of consumer finance and survey of income program participation to show that young households with children are under insured against the risk that an adult member of the household dies we develop a tractable macroeconomic model with human capital risk age dependent returns to human capital investment and endogenous borrowing constraints due to the limited pledgeability of human capital limited contract enforcement we show analytically that consistent with the life insurance data in equilibrium young households are borrowing constrained and under insured against human capital risk a calibrated version of the model can quantitatively account for the life cycle variation of life insurance holdings financial wealth earnings and consumption inequality observed in the us data our analysis implies that a reform that makes consumer bankruptcy more costly like the bankruptcy abuse prevention and consumer protection act of 2005 leads to a substantial increase in the volume of both credit and insurance

what drives consumption booms consumption booms have been common in both industrial and developing countries and several explanations have been offered for their occurrence these include economy wide wealth effects associated with favorable movements in the terms of trade or euphoric expectations triggered by macroeconomic reforms ricardian effects associated with fiscal stabilization lending booms following financial liberalization and a variety of distortions in inter temporal relative prices using a large cross country sample of booms this article assesses how widely applicable these explanations are the key finding is that wealth effects linked to favorable movements in the terms of trade and anticipated improvements in macroeconomic performance seem to have been more important empirically than explanations relying primarily on fiscal phenomena or distortions in inter temporal relative prices

partial insurance and investments in children this article studies the impact of permanent and transitory shocks to income on parental investments in children we use panel data on family income and an index of investments in children from the children of the national longitudinal survey of youth we find that there is partial insurance of parental investments against permanent income shocks but the magnitude of the estimated responses is small we cannot reject the hypothesis of full insurance against temporary shocks another interpretation of our findings is that insurance possibilities are limited but the fact that skill is a non separable function of parental investments over time results in small reactions of these investments to income shocks especially at later ages

risk pooling precautionary saving and consumption growth in this paper we model the evolution of income risk and consumption growth we decompose the time series innovation of the income process into its common and cohort specific components from these we compute conditional variances which are used as separate risk terms in a consumption growth equation using a long series of british household data we exploit the time series variation to identify precautionary saving effects and find strong evidence of their importance specifically after allowing for demographic and labour market status there is an independent role for income risk in explaining consumption growth rather than the component that is common across cohorts however it is the cohort specific element that is important in determining changes in consumption growth this result points to a failure of between cohort insurance mechanisms

insurance and opportunities a welfare analysis of labor market risk abstract using a model with constant relative risk aversion preferences endogenous labor supply and partial insurance against idiosyncratic wage risk this paper provides an analytical characterization of three welfare effects a the welfare effect of a rise in wage dispersion b the welfare gain from completing markets and c the welfare effect from eliminating risk the analysis reveals an important trade off for these welfare calculations on the one hand higher wage uncertainty increases the cost associated with missing insurance markets on the other hand greater wage dispersion presents opportunities to raise aggregate productivity by concentrating market work among more productive workers welfare effects can be expressed in terms of the underlying parameters defining preferences and wage risk or alternatively in terms of changes in observable second moments of the joint distribution over individual wages consumption and hours

female labour supply and household employment shocks maternity leave as an insurance mechanism this paper investigates the role of unpaid maternity leave in providing household insurance against paternal employment shocks the main outcome is the timing of a mothers return to work after having a child exploiting the us family and medical leave act we find that mothers eligible for maternity leave speed up their return to work in response to a paternal shock with the conditional probability of being in work 49 higher than in households with no unpaid maternity leave further evidence is provided on the insurance role of unpaid maternity leave through i no significant interaction between paid maternity leave and the paternal shock and ii smoothing of consumption effects of the shock for households covered by unpaid leave

on testing for full insurance using consumer expenditure survey data in a recent issue of this journal mace 1991 presented empirical evidence in support of the hypothesis that u s households engage in full risk sharing the data used were taken from the u s consumer expenditure survey cex for the years 1980 84 full insurance implies that household level consumption should be perfectly correlated with aggregate consumption but uncorrelated with householdlevel changes in income mace s surprising result was that at least for one functional specification household level income changes whether measured directly by changes in reported income or proxied by employment change dummies seemed to have no statistically significant effect on consumption this comment demonstrates that this result was due to measurement error in key variables

village and larger economies the theory and measurement of the townsend thai project i have spent close to 20 years cataloging transactions between households in thai villages along with a research team just this past summer we documented a number of ways in which even relatively poor villages have money markets not dissimilar in some ways from new york financial markets with borrowing and repayment passing along links in credit chains in another project we have been looking at month by month school attendance grade level completion and graduation for children in these villages following them from birth to graduation the townsend thai project is a theory based data collection endeavor measuring and mapping village and larger economies into general equilibrium frameworks this paper reviews a number of findings implications applications and lessons learned and considers next steps

what can we learn about household consumption expenditure from data on income and assets abstract a major difficulty faced by researchers who want to study the consumption and savings behavior of households is the lack of reliable panel data on household expenditures one possibility is to use surveys that follow the same households over time but such data are rare and they typically have small sample sizes and face significant measurement issues an alternative approach is to use the accounting identity that total household spending is equal to income plus capital gains minus the change in wealth over the period the goal of this paper is to examine the advantages and difficulties of using this accounting identity to construct a population panel data with information on household expenditure to derive such measures of consumption expenditure we combine several data sources from norway over the period 1994 2014 this allows us to link tax records on income and wealth to other administrative data with information on financial and real estate transactions using this data we derive household expenditure from the accounting identity before assessing the sensitivity of this measure of consumption expenditure to the assumptions made and the data used we then compare our measures of household expenditure to those reported in expenditure surveys and to the aggregates from national accounts we also illustrate the research opportunities arising from the derived measures of consumption expenditure through two applications the first is an examination of how relative wage movements among birth cohorts and education groups affected the distribution of household expenditure while the second is a study of the transmission of income shocks to household consumption

insurance and opportunities the welfare implications of rising wage dispersion this paper develops a series of heterogeneous agents economies in order to characterize analytically the welfare implications of changes in the uncertainty in individual labor productivity we perform two types of welfare calculations first we compute the welfare consequences of a rise in labor market risk given a particular asset market structure complete markets incomplete markets autarky second we compute the expected gain from completing markets starting from autarky or incomplete markets for a given level of wage dispersion we are able to derive intuitive closed form expressions for these welfare eects which depend only on preference parameters and the size of the change in wage dispersion a higher level of productivity dispersion has always two eects it tends to reduce welfare in presence of partial insurance but it also tends to improve production opportunities in presence of flexible labor supply we can separate analytically the insurance and the opportunity components we quantify the welfare consequences of the rise in wage inequality observed in the united states over the past three decades as roughly 3 of lifetime consumption moreover we calculate that completing the asset markets given the current level of inequality would lead to a welfare improvement equivalent to 35 of lifetime consumption

twenty years of rising inequality in u s lifetime labour income values in this paper we study the evolution of lifetime labour income inequality by constructing present value life cycle measures that incorporate both earnings and employment risk we find that even though lifetime income inequality is 40 less than earnings inequality the total increase in lifetime income inequality over the past 20 years is the same as earnings inequality while the total increase is the same the pathways there differ with earnings inequality experiencing a steady increase and lifetime income inequality increasing in spurts particularly in the latter half of the 1990s finally we find the changes in lifetime income inequality are primarily driven by changes in earnings mobility and changes in the earnings distribution itself changes in employment risk and the composition of the sample such as the shift toward attaining more education and the ageing population do not play a large role 2004 the review of economics studies limited

decreasing relative risk aversion risk sharing and the permanent income hypothesis this article develops a method for testing the risk sharing hypothesis rsh against various versions of the permanent income hypothesis pih while allowing for heterogeneity in risk preferences across households using 1 year and longer differences in household total nondurable consumption data from indian villages we find evidence that favors the rsh over the pih at the village level

the macroeconomic implications of rising wage inequality in the united states in recent decades american workers have faced a rising college premium a narrowing gender gap and increasing wage volatility this paper explores the quantitative and welfare implications of these changes the framework is an incomplete markets life cycle model in which individuals choose education intrafamily time allocation and savings given the observed history of the u s wage structure the model replicates key trends in cross sectional inequality in hours worked earnings and consumption recent cohorts enjoy welfare gains on average as higher relative wages for college graduates and for women translate into higher educational attainment and a more even division of labor within the household

testing for full insurance using exogenous information we strongly reject the full insurance hypothesis using testing variables that are not decision variables for the households under investigation we find that households are not insured against changes in the unemployment rate associated with the household head s occupational category using this exogenous information we also investigate the appropriateness of exogeneity assumptions on idiosyncratic variables that have been used as testing variables in the full insurance literature it is shown that several exogeneity assumptions made in the existing literature are potentially problematic

consumption risk sharing in italy this paper analyses the issue of consumption risk sharing in the 20 italian regions during the period 1983 94 the tests proposed allow for regional specific departures from the hypothesis of complete risk sharing and for the existence of non separabilities among groups of commodities empirical evidence suggests the rejection of the hypothesis of complete consumption risk sharing

full insurance in the presence of aggregate uncertainty this paper tests implications of full consumption insurance the object is to determine how much mileage can be obtained from a model with complete markets with such features as private information or liquidity constraints omitted the implication exploited is that individual consumption responds to aggregate risk but not to idiosyncratic risk the test involves regressing the change in household consumption onto the change in aggregate consumption and other right hand side variables such as the change in household income and change in employment status all variables other than the change in aggregate consumption are predicted to be insignificant in explaining the change in household consumption with observations on consumption and income for 10 695 households from the consumer expenditure survey the results are mixed the results for one specification exponential utility are mostly consistent with full consumption insurance the results for the other specification power utility are not

consumption and labor supply with partial insurance an analytical framework we develop a model with partial insurance against idiosyncratic wage shocks to quantify risk sharing closed form solutions are obtained for equilibrium allocations and for moments of the joint distribution of consumption hours and wages we prove identification and demonstrate how labor supply data are informative about risk sharing the model estimated with us data over the period 1967 2006 implies that i 39 percent of permanent wage shocks pass through to consumption ii the share of wage risk insured increased until the early 1980s and iii preference heterogeneity is important in accounting for observed dispersion in consumption and hours jel e21 e23 e31 e52

on efficient distribution with private information this paper is a study of the dynamics of the efficient distribution of consumption in an exchange economy with many consumers each of whom is subject to private idiosyncratic taste shocks we propose a recursive method for finding feasible allocations that are incentivecompatible and that are pareto optimal within this set the method is applied to several parametric examples we find that in an efficient allocation the degree of inequality continually increases with a diminishing fraction of the population receiving an increasing fraction of the resources we discuss the extent to which these allocations can be decentralized via market arrangements this paper is a study of the dynamics of the efficient distribution of consumption in an exchange economy with private information the economy we study has a constant endowment flow of a single non storable consumption good which is to be allocated each period among a large number of consumers each period these consumers experience unpredictable idiosyncratic privately observed taste shocks affecting their marginal utility of current consumption efficiency dictates that more resources be allocated to those consumers who in any given period have a high marginal utility of current consumption

a simple test of consumption insurance are consumers effectively insured against idiosyncratic shocks to income or wealth either by formal institutions such as charities private insurance and government programs or by informal mechanisms such as gifts and loans from relatives friends and neighbors under full insurance consumption growth should be cross sectionally independent of idiosyncratic variables that are exogenous to consumers this proposition is tested by cross sectional regressions of consumption growth on a variety of exogenous variables full insurance is rejected for long illness and involuntary job loss but not for spells of unemployment loss of work due to strike and an involuntary move

income risk macroeconomic and demographic change and economic inequality in japan abstract using an olg model with heterogeneous households we investigate the relationship among income risk macroeconomic and demographic changes and economic inequality between 1980 and 2000 in japan by decomposing the primary factors in earnings and consumption inequality into macroeconomic variables and the demographic variable we find that our model replicates the evolution of economic inequality in japan by performing counterfactual simulations we demonstrate that two factors changes in time varying macroeconomic factors and the unexpected decline in the total factor productivity growth rate played important roles in the increase in earnings and consumption inequality in the 1990s

the wealth distribution in bewley economies with capital income risk abstract we study the wealth distribution in bewley economies with idiosyncratic capital income risk we show analytically that under rather general conditions on the stochastic structure of the economy a unique ergodic distribution of wealth displays a fat tail

intertemporal choice and consumption mobility the theory of intertemporal consumption choice makes sharp predictions about the evolution of the entire distribution of household consumption not just about its conditional mean in the paper we study the empirical transition matrix of consumption using a panel drawn from the bank of italy survey of household income and wealth we estimate the parameters that minimize the distance between the empirical and the theoretical transition matrix of the consumption distribution the transition matrix generated by our estimates matches remarkably well the empirical matrix both in the aggregate and in samples stratified by education our estimates strongly reject the consumption insurance model and suggest that households smooth income shocks to a lesser extent than implied by the permanent income hypothesis jel d52 d91 i30

the labour market and economic risk friend or foe this paper examines the twofold role of the labour market in household economic risk management as a source of household consumption risk and as an instrument for insuring consumption against contingencies it outlines a framework for analysing this twofold role of the labour market and uses data from the british household panel survey 1991 1996 to explore this empirically it identifies the relative importance of the labour market and other factors in producing changes in the financial situation of individuals it also implements full insurance tests of whether unemployment and other external shocks to the household are correlated with consumption growth it concludes that labour market factors are a dominant source of change in individuals financial situation with a predominantly positive effect on the financial situation of the better off and a predominantly negative impact on the financial situation of the less well off it also finds that households are unable to fully insure their consumpti

an international comparison of lifetime inequality how continental europe resembles north america we compare earnings inequality and mobility across the united states canada france germany and the united kingdom during the late 1990s a flexible model of earnings dynamics that isolates positional mobility within a stable earnings distribution is estimated earnings trajectories are then simulated and lifetime annuity value distributions are constructed earnings mobility and employment risk are found to be positively correlated with base year inequality taken together they produce more equalization in countries with high cross section inequality such that the countries in our sample have more similar lifetime inequality levels than cross section measures suggest

the efficient allocation of consumption under moral hazard and hidden access to the credit market in this paper we describe the properties of the optimal allocation of consumption in a world with moral hazard and hidden borrowing and lending we discuss how and under what conditions the efficient allocation can be distinguished from that of the permanent income self insurance model we also compare our allocation with the complete markets full information case and with the standard moral hazard model with monitorable and fully contractible asset holdings jel d82 e21 jel d82 e21 jel d82 e21 jel d82 e21

from earnings inequality to consumption inequality this paper studies the paths from inequality in earnings to inequality in household consumption we show that careful study of the evolution of the variances and covariances of earnings and consumption within cohorts across time can identify permanent and transitory shocks we present an application to the evolution of inequality in the united kingdom we extend previous results to recognise separate earnings of partners in couples

labor market trends and the changing value of time abstract during the past two decades households experienced increases in their average wages and expenditures alongside with divergent trends in their wages expenditures and time allocation we develop a model with incomplete asset markets and household heterogeneity in market and home technologies and preferences to account for these labor market trends and assess their welfare consequences using micro data on expenditures and time use we identify the sources of heterogeneity across households document how these sources have changed over time and perform counterfactual analyses given the observed increase in leisure expenditures relative to leisure time and the complementarity of these inputs in leisure technology we infer a significant increase in the average productivity of time spent on leisure the increasing productivity of leisure time generates significant welfare gains for the average household and moderates negative welfare effects from the rising dispersion of expenditures and time allocation across households

reversal of fortunes the rise and fall of lifetime earnings of iranian men abstractthe islamic revolution of 1979 the 8 year war with iraq 1980 88 and the collapse of oil prices in 1986 dealt huge blows to iran s economy in this article we use a pseudopanel constructed from annual multiple surveys during 1984 2004 to analyze changes in cohort earnings and consumption through these tumultuous times using well known techniques we decompose the changes in median cohort earnings of men into cohort age and year effects our results show that cohorts born before 1950 who were well into their careers at the time of the revolution enjoyed a steady increase in lifetime earnings however those born after the mid 1960s who started their careers during the revolution and the war with iraq experienced losses relative to previous cohorts in contrast to earnings per capita expenditures do not indicate a declining cohort trend for younger cohorts when we restrict the year effects to cyclical variation only the cohort effects show a rising trend we interpret the difference in

cost of business cycles with indivisibilities and liquidity constraints it is almost universally agreed that individuals face incomplete insurance markets and cannot perfectly insure against the idiosyncratic risk in this paper simple general equilibrium models with incomplete insurance markets are examined in order to assess the impact of imperfect insurance on the magnitude of the welfare costs of business cycles two versions of incomplete insurance markets are considered and certain statistical properties of the equilibrium stochastic processes in these environments are compared with those of a perfect insurance economy

debt crises and risk sharing the role of markets versus sovereigns debt crises and risk sharing role of markets versus sovereigns using a variance decomposition of shocks to gross domestic product gdp we quantify the role of international factor income international transfers and saving in achieving risk sharing during the recent european crisis we focus on the subperiods 1990 2007 2008 2009 and 2010 and consider separately the european countries hit by the sovereign debt crisis in 2010 we decompose risk sharing from saving into contributions from government and private saving and show that fiscal austerity programs played an important role in hindering risk sharing during the sovereign debt crisis

information constrained insurance the revelation principle extended abstract private information induced incentive constraints can cause allocations to diverge from full information optimal allocations often in the direction of limited insurance but can bring unanticipated anomalies related plausible contract exclusion restrictions can be damaging in welfare terms more generally private information optimal allocations can be sensitive to the information structure suggesting that the latter be specified with an eye toward realism as well as tractability in an effort to make tractability less of a constraint the paper shows how two apparently difficult information structures a costly state verification environment and a multiperiod multilateral private information environment can be handled theoretically by revelation principle methods the paper also shows how solutions can be generated numerically

do stockholders share risk more effectively than nonstockholders abstract this paper analyzes the extent of risk sharing among stockholders and nonstockholders to evaluate the empirical importance of market incompleteness it is essential to determine whether idiosyncratic shocks are important for the wealthy who have access to better insurance opportunities but also face different risks than the average household we study a model where each period households decide whether to participate in the stock market by paying a fixed cost due to this endogenous entry decision the testable implications of perfect risk sharing take the form of a sample selection model which we estimate using a semiparametric gmm estimator proposed by kyriazidou 2001 using data from psid we strongly reject perfect risk sharing among stockholders but perhaps surprisingly do not find evidence against it among nonstockholders this result appears to be robust to several extensions this finding suggests further focus on risk factors that primarily affect the wealthy such as entrepreneu

quantitative asset pricing implications of endogenous solvency constraints we study the asset pricing implications of an economy where solvency constraints are endogenously determined to deter agents from defaulting while allowing as much risk sharing as possible we solve analytically for efficient allocations and for the corresponding asset prices portfolio holdings and solvency constraints for a simple example then we calibrate a more general model to u s aggregate as well as idiosyncratic income processes we find equity premia risk premia for long term bonds and sharpe ratios of magnitudes similar to the u s data for low risk aversion and a low time discount factor article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

long term wage fluctuations with industry specific human capital exploiting long term interindustry demand shifts this article provides evidence that 1 industry level wages do not respond to industry demand conditions 2 at the industry level the employment of young workers responds more to demand shifts than does the employment of experienced workers and 3 the postdisplacement wages of displaced workers are strongly affected by demand in their predisplacement industries these findings are consistent with a model in which worker s investments in industry specific skills pose a barrier to interindustry labor mobility and wages do not respond to spot labor market conditions

female labor supply as insurance against idiosyncratic risk in this paper we explore the role of female labor supply as an insurance mechanism against idiosyncratic earnings risk within the family we use a life cycle model in which a unitary family makes consumption saving and labor supply decisions additional uncertainty increases female participation rates this effect on participation is greatest when the ability to borrow and hence to smooth consumption is limited we calculate the welfare cost of increases in uncertainty and show that the welfare cost is greater when households are unable to adjust female labor supply jel j22 d91

the role of food stamps in consumption stabilization although the food stamp program is the largest universal entitlement program in the social safety net little is known about its stabilizing role in household income and consumption using data from the panel study of income dynamics spanning 1980 99 we estimate the volatility of income with and without food stamps coupled with a variance decomposition of consumption among families at high ex ante risk of food stamp participation food stamps reduced income volatility by about 12 percent and food consumption volatility by about 14 percent there was however a marked decline in consumption smoothing benefits of the program in the early 1990s relative to the 1980s

redistributive taxation and personal bankruptcy in u s states abstract personal bankruptcy regulation and redistributive taxes and transfers vary considerably across u s states and over time our hypothesis is that both policies are imperfect substitutes in insuring consumption of risk averse agents in incomplete markets exploiting data variation over time for 18 u s states for the period 1980 2003 we find considerable support for this hypothesis redistributive taxation and bankruptcy exemptions are negatively correlated and both policies are associated with more equal consumption growth

are rainfed agricultural households insured evidence from five villages in vidarbha india there are several studies on risk and insurance in village economies in the developing world however there is a lack of evidence for recent decades in spite of profound changes including structural transformation and widespread market liberalization in most regions in this paper i use primary panel data from five rainfed villages in a high risk region of india and find evidence of considerable exposure as well as vulnerability to idiosyncratic and covariate risks further there is significant wealth differentiated heterogeneity in vulnerability the findings help identify the scope of public policy in improving risk management in rainfed agriculture

risk sharing and industrial specialization regional and international evidence the authors provide empirical evidence that risk sharing enhances specialization in production to the best of their knowledge this well established and important theoretical proposition has not been tested before the empirical procedure is summarized as follows first the authors construct a measure of specialization in production and calculate an index of specialization for each of the european community ec and non ec oecd countries u s states canadian provinces japanese prefectures latin american countries and regions of italy spain and the united kingdom then they estimate the degree of capital market integration a measure of risk sharing within each of these groups of regions the ec countries the non ec oecd countries the united states canada japan italy spain and the united kingdom and rely on another author s estimate for latin america finally they perform a regression of the specialization index on the degree of risk sharing controlling for relevant economic variables they find a positive and significant relation between the degree of specialization of individual members of a group of countries provinces states or prefectures and the amount of risk that is shared within the group the authors perform regressions using variables such as shareholder rights and the size of the financial sector relative to gdp as instruments for the amount of inter regional risk sharing these regressions confirm that risk sharing facilitated by a favorable legal environment and a developed financial system is a direct causal determinant of industrial specialization this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

heterogeneous life cycle profiles income risk and consumption inequality was the increase in income inequality in the us due to permanent shocks or merely to an increase in the variance of transitory shocks the implications for consumption and welfare depend crucially on the answer to this question we use consumer expenditure survey cex repeated cross section data on consumption and income to decompose idiosyncratic changes in income into predictable life cycle changes transitory and permanent shocks and estimate the contribution of each to total inequality our model fits the joint evolution of consumption and income inequality well and delivers two main results first we find that permanent changes in income explain all of the increase in inequality in the 1980s and 1990s second we reconcile this finding with the fact that consumption inequality did not increase much over this period our results support the view that many permanent changes in income are predictable for consumers even if they look unpredictable to the econometrician consistent with models of heterogeneous income profiles