representing the influence of multiple social interactions on monthly tourism participation behavior abstract based on japanese panel data derived from 12 monthly waves and 1253 questionnaires the study examines the impact of social interactions on tourism participation social interactions are classified into three types namely endogenous exogenous and correlated effects it is empirically confirmed that endogenous social effects have significant influences on tourism participation behavior for example it is found that interactions with people of the same income groups an example of endogenous social effects are generally significant across most months of the year however it is worth noting that endogenous social effects will be overestimated if the correlated social effect is not taken into account the results suggest that social multiplier effects can be discerned that have potential implications for promotion and management of tourism participation rates

theoretical and empirical advantages of truncated count data estimators for analysis of deer hunting in california truncated poisson and truncated negative binomial count data models as well as standard count data models ols nonlinear normal and truncated nonlinear normal mle were used to estimate demand for deer hunting in california the truncated count data estimators and their properties are reviewed a large sample n 2223 allowed random segmenting of the data into specification estimation and out of sample prediction portions statistics of interest are therefore unbiased by the specification search and the prediction results allow comparison of the statistical models robustness the new estimators are found to be more appropriate for estimating and predicting demand and social benefits than the alternative estimators based on a variety of criteria

an adverse selection model of optimal unemployment insurance abstract we ask whether offering a menu of unemployment insurance contracts is welfare improving in a heterogeneous population we adopt a repeated moral hazard framework as in shavell and weiss 1979 supplemented by unobserved heterogeneity about agents job opportunities our main theoretical contribution is a quasi recursive formulation of our adverse selection problem including a geometric characterization of the state space our main economic result is that optimal contracts for bad searchers tend to be upward sloping due to an adverse selection effect this is in contrast to the well known optimal decreasing time profile of benefits in pure moral hazard environments that continue to be optimal for good searchers in our model

joint recreation choices and implied values of time a model of joint recreation quantity choices is developed individuals choose both total time spent at distant sites and the number of trips taken implicitly choosing average on site time the model permits nonzero marginal utility of travel makes on site time endogenous and is linear in the constraints the scarcity value of time is analyzed without assuming the marginal utility of work time is zero a partially testable assumption about relative marginal values of travel and on site time yields nonparametric calculations of the scarcity value of time and marginal values of trips and days on site from people s observed optimal quantity choices

endogenous on site time in the recreation demand model careful modeling of on site time may substantially improve estimates of the bene fits of recreational visits using the travel cost method especially when on site time is endoge nous this paper reviews the theory of endoge nous on site time and shows how the theory may apply to the random utility model rum an empirical example of a two level nested choice model of sport fishing in southcentral alaska il lustrates a discussion of the relative advantages of the different ways to specify endogenous on site time jel q26

income inequality and co2 emissions in the g7 1870 2014 evidence from non parametric modelling abstract we examine whether income inequality effected carbon emissions in what are now the world s wealthiest countries over the period 1870 2014 employing a non parametric panel estimation method with cross sectional and time varying coefficients we find that the relationship between income inequality and co2 emissions is highly non linear in terms of signs and significance the nonparametric coefficient function for income inequality is found to vary over the period 1870 2014 income inequality exhibits a significant positive effect from 1870 to 1880 and a significant negative impact from 1950 to 2000 on co2 emissions we also find that for extended periods between 1881 and 1949 and between 2000 and 2014 there is no significant relationship between the two variables

possibilities for including the opportunity cost of time in recreation demand systems recreation demand modelers have attempted to identify and incorporate the opportunity cost of an individual s time in travel and on site in the model larson 1993b focused on the value of leisure time in a model where individuals face a fixed work week in this paper we examine the connection between labor supply and recreation demands and focus on conditional demand systems we illustrate that corner solution models are not needed to explain several interesting time related recreation issues

computing multi period information constrained optima this paper presents a detailed theoretical derivation and justification for methods used to compute solutions to a multi period including infinite period continuum agent unobservedeffort economy actual solutions are displayed illustrating cross sectional variability in consumption and labour effort in the population at a point in time and variability for a typical individual over time the optimal tradeoff between insurance and incentives is explored and the issue of excess variability is addressed by consideration of the analogue full information economy and various restricted contracting regimes

the macro and asset pricing implications of rising italian uncertainty evidence from a novel news based macroeconomic policy uncertainty index abstract we develop a new monthly and daily index of economic policy uncertainty for italy based on articles from the sole 24 ore a popular italian business daily newspaper var investigations document that an unexpected rise in the sole 24 ore news based epu index epu24 has mild effects on the real economic activity cross sectional asset pricing tests then show that both monthly and daily epu24 shocks command a positive risk premium a standard event study finally indicates the presence of statistically significant positive cumulative abnormal returns cars in the energy sector following different categories of policy related events negative and significant cars in the financial sector are instead found to be generated by international related events and political elections

the impacts of structural oil shocks on macroeconomic uncertainty evidence from a large panel of 45 countries abstract using local projection methods this paper employs monthly panel data from 1989 to 2017 to examine both linear and nonlinear impulse responses of macroeconomic uncertainty to structural shocks to global oil production aggregate demand oil market specific demand and speculative demand in a large group of 45 economies we find that both oil supply and demand shocks are important drivers of uncertainty there is strong evidence that the impacts of oil price shocks on macroeconomic uncertainty are regime dependent and contingent on the states of investor sentiments and perceived volatility in financial markets the responses of economic uncertainty to oil shocks especially demand side shocks appear to experience a dramatic change in the post global financial crisis period

a divisible search model of fiat money this paper extends the kiyotaki wright search model of fiat money to allow for divisible money and goods the extension allows me to examine the standard issues in monetary economics such as the neutrality and superneutrality of money by severing the artificial link in the kiyotaki wright model between the money supply and the number of money holders it is shown that money is neutral but not superneutral money growth generates a trading opportunity effect it changes the fraction of different agents in the economy and hence changes the probability with which agents have a successful match in addition money growth has a negative effect on the real money balance that is familiar in walrasian monetary models the balance of the two effects can imply a positive optimal money growth rate

repeated insurance relationships in a costly state verification model with an application to deposit insurance abstract we consider the problem of an insurer who enters into a repeated relationship with a set of risk averse agents in the presence of ex post verification costs the insurer wishes to minimize the expected cost of providing these agents a certain expected utility level we characterize the optimal contract between the insurer and the insured agents we then apply the analysis to the provision of deposit insurance our results suggest in a deposit insurance context that it may be optimal to utilize the discount window early on and to make deposit insurance payments only later or not at all

income and the substitution pattern between domestic and international tourism demand this article analyses the role of income in the decision of participating in the tourism demand within 1 year the tourists who are participating can travel to domestic destinations only abroad destinations only or to both of them such a substitution pattern is modelled using a bivariate probit model the analysis is carried out to the regional level using a survey conducted in 15 european eu 15 countries in addition to the traditional socioeconomic variables the analysis adds new variables to the outbound tourism demand modelling such as the attributes of the place of residence the results show that tourism demand is income elastic however there are marked differences in the income elasticities of the probabilities of travelling domestically or abroad above certain income threshold the substitution pattern between destinations takes part the probability of travelling domestically only remains constant whereas the probability of travelling abroad keeps growing additionally the article prov

a bivariate count data model for household tourism demand households choice of the number of leisure trips and the total number of overnight stays is empirically studied using swedish tourism data a bivariate hurdle approach separating the participation to travel and stay the night or not from the quantity the number of trips and nights decision is employed the quantity decision is modelled with a bivariate mixed poisson lognormal model allowing for both positive as well as negative correlation between count variables the observed endogenous variables are drawn from a truncated density and estimation is pursued by simulated maximum likelihood the estimation results indicate a negative correlation between the number of trips and nights in most cases own price effects are as expected negative while estimates of cross price effects vary between samples copyright 2005 john wiley sons ltd

time varying income and price elasticities for energy demand evidence from a middle income panel abstract we estimate time varying income and price elasticities for energy demand for a 26 country middle income balanced panel that spans 1996 2014 to do so we employ a recently developed local linear dummy estimation method to estimate the trend and coefficient functions we find that the price elasticity for energy demand is either insignificant or positive and small while the income elasticity for energy demand behaves in a non linear fashion over time it is always less than unity and is generally within 0 6 0 8 a gdp elasticity of less than one suggests that these middle income countries are on the right hand side of an inverted u energy intensity gdp path that is consistent with the dematerialization process also this finding suggests that energy intensity but not energy consumption in these countries will fall with economic growth hence intensity based targets may be met in a business as usual setting but aggregate or per capita based carbon emissions targets would likely require policy interventions

oil prices and economic policy uncertainty evidence from a nonparametric panel data model abstract we examine the relationship between oil prices and economic policy uncertainty in g7 countries to do so we employ a nonparametric panel data technique that allows the trend and coefficient functions to evolve as unknown time varying functional forms we also estimate country specific and common trend functions allowing them to evolve over time using monthly data from g7 countries over the period 1997 01 2018 06 we find that the effect of oil prices on economic policy uncertainty is time varying our results show that the estimated time varying coefficient function of the oil price was negative in years in which increases in oil prices were driven by a surge in global aggregate demand further our nonparametric local linear estimates show that the country specific and common trend functions are increasing over time our findings are robust to endogeneity and alternative specifications

on site time in the demand for recreation the standard travel cost model has treated on site time ambiguously over the years this paper shows how to handle on site time by exploring the implications of two assumptions in the travel cost model first people choose the amount of time that they spend on a site and second the time spent on site is exogenous this paper uses a duality result to show that when on site time is chosen the standard travel cost demand function takes a particularly simple form with slight modification standard estimation and welfare calculations continue to hold

payments systems design in deterministic and private information environments abstract the first setup we study is a deterministic model with spatial separation where we consider alternative payments systems institutions and their implications for allocation and welfare a payments system with period by period settlement in outside money improves on decentralized exchange an efficient allocation is supported by a payments system where settlement is not imposed in the second model there is random matching and unobserved productivity shocks and preference shocks we explore how risk should be shared optimally in this economy and interpret the results in terms of how actual payments systems should operate journal of economic literature classification numbers e4 e5

comment on the distribution of money balances and the nonneutrality of money by aleksander berentsen gabriele camera and christopher waller an example is constructed to illustrate some points about the berentsen camera waller article followed by some comments

price and volatility linkages between international reits and oil markets abstract this study analyzes price and volatility transmissions between nineteen real estate investment trusts reits and the oil markets the reits data represents a variety of countries at different stages of their development and the expanded analytical approach includes accounting for structural shifts as gradual processes as opposed to strictly abrupt processes typically assumed in the literature oil prices are found to primarily predict reits prices in mature reits markets but the feedback from reits to oil prices is weak from the perspective of volatility strong evidence of bidirectional transmission in majority of the markets is observed our results are in general robust to a shorter common sample period of the various countries this study further demonstrates the importance of accounting for gradual smooth structural shifts for price transmission analysis

an analysis of households appraisal of their budget constraints for potential participation in tourism abstract this paper examines the importance of households budget constraints as a barrier to participation in tourism for this purpose a sample of spanish households drawn from the european community household panel was analysed this survey gathers data on the economic and socio demographic situation of all adult household members more specifically it includes a question on each household s capacity to afford a week s yearly holiday the aim of this question is to assess whether households have sufficient financial resources to participate in tourism the results of the analysis demonstrate that budget constraints on tourist travel are binding for a significant percentage of spanish households the results also show that this type of constraint is not only conditioned by the level of income but by a more complex appraisal that also includes other financial variables such as households saving capacity or the unemployment status of its members furthermore non financial variables such as the level of education age and barriers associated with poor health status all help to determine the degree of importance with which households perceive their budget constraints

a theory of financing constraints and firm dynamics there is widespread evidence supporting the conjecture that borrowing constraints have important implications for firm growth and survival in this paper we model a multiperiod borrowing lending relationship with asymmetric information we show that borrowing constraints emerge as a feature of the optimal long term lending contract and that such constraints relax as the value of the borrower s claim to future cash flows increases we also show that the optimal contract has interesting implications for firm dynamics in agreement with the empirical evidence as age and size increase mean and variance of growth decrease and firm survival increases

communication commitment and growth abstract we study the effect on the growth of an economy of alternative financing opportunities in a stochastic growth model with incentive constraints efficient accumulation mechanisms are designed and computed for economies that differ in their incentive structure we show that when borrowing is subject to information constraints there is a computable efficient transfer mechanism that does not affect capital accumulation and investment patterns even though consumption patterns and the distribution of wealth are affected in contrast enforcement constraints can severely reduce the outside financing opportunities and affect investment patters and economic growth we adapt numerical algorithms for obtaining numerical solutions of these models

the equivalence of lending equilibria and signalling based insurance under asymmetric information i present a model in which a continuum of individuals have stochastic idiosyncratic income shocks complete insurance is physically feasible but unattainable due to an information asymmetry income shocks are observable only by the individuals receiving them any insurance institution must therefore rely on self reporting of income innovations two ways of achieving incentive compatible self reporting are presented the first is a debt market with an explicit lending restriction the second is an insurance contract that linearly filters a signal transmitted by individuals the two are then demonstrated to be identical equilibrium consumption fluctuates in a random walk which is inefficient given the physical potential for complete insurance but is efficient given the information constraints the results are complementary to those of green 1987 but permit more general stochastic processes of income to be analyzed serial correlation of income reduces the efficiency of the insurance

a unified framework for monetary theory and policy analysis search theoretic models of monetary exchange are based on explicit descriptions of the frictions that make money essential however tractable versions of these models typically make strong assumptions that render them ill suited for monetary policy analysis we propose a new framework based on explicit micro foundations within which macro policy can be studied the framework is analytically tractable and easily quantifiable we calibrate the model to standard observations and use it to measure the cost of inflation we find that going from 10 percent to 0 percent inflation is worth between 3 and 5 percent of consumption much higher than previous estimates

on efficient distribution with private information this paper is a study of the dynamics of the efficient distribution of consumption in an exchange economy with many consumers each of whom is subject to private idiosyncratic taste shocks we propose a recursive method for finding feasible allocations that are incentivecompatible and that are pareto optimal within this set the method is applied to several parametric examples we find that in an efficient allocation the degree of inequality continually increases with a diminishing fraction of the population receiving an increasing fraction of the resources we discuss the extent to which these allocations can be decentralized via market arrangements this paper is a study of the dynamics of the efficient distribution of consumption in an exchange economy with private information the economy we study has a constant endowment flow of a single non storable consumption good which is to be allocated each period among a large number of consumers each period these consumers experience unpredictable idiosyncratic privately observed taste shocks affecting their marginal utility of current consumption efficiency dictates that more resources be allocated to those consumers who in any given period have a high marginal utility of current consumption

repeated principal agent relationships with lending and borrowing abstract it is shown optimal long term contracts are strictly better than a series of unrelated short term contracts for two reasons long term contracts allow risk to be spread over time and the agent s intertemporal choices provide information about the unobservable random variable

a bivariate zero inflated count data regression model with unrestricted correlation abstract this paper proposes a computationally simple bivariate zero inflated count data regression model with an unrestricted correlation pattern an application to data with excess of zeros on the demand for health services is given

intertemporal distortions in the second best we consider a very general class of public nance problems that encompasses ramsey models of optimal taxation as well as economies with limited commitment private information and political economy frictions we identify a su cient condition to rule out permanent intertemporal distortions at the optimum if there exists an admissible allocation that converges to the rst best steady state then all intertemporal distortions are temporary in the second best we analyze a series of applications to illustrate the signi cance of this result

income fluctuation and asymmetric information an example of a repeated principal agent problem we examine a simple repeated principal agent model with discounting there are a risk averse borrower with an unobservable random income and a risk neutral lender the efficient contract is characterized it tends to the first best constant consumption contract as the discount factor tends to one and the time horizon extends to infinity if the time horizon is infinite and the contract is legally enforceable the borrower s utility becomes arbitrarily negative with probability one if the borrower has constant absolute risk aversion consumption is transferred between any two states at a constant interest rate which is less than the rate of time preference

on repeated moral hazard with discounting in this paper we analyze optimal contracts in an infinitely repeated agency model in which both the principal and agent discount the future we show that there is a stationary representation of the optimal contract when the agent s conditional discounted expected utility is used as a state variable this representation reduces the multi period problem to a static variational problem which can be analyzed using standard variational techniques this reduction is used to obtain several properties of the contract

political economy of mechanisms we study the optimal mirrlees taxation problem in a dynamic economy in contrast to the standard approach where the taxation mechanism is operated by a benevolent planner with full commitment power we focus on economies in which policy decisions are made by self interested politicians who cannot commit to policies the society controls politicians using elections we show that the provision of incentives to politicians can be partly separated from redistribution across agents and that political economy constraints can be modeled as introducing additional aggregate distortions in the dynamic mirrlees problem we provide conditions under which the political economy distortions persist or disappear in the long run if the politicians are as patient as the agents the best sustainable mechanism leads to an asymptotic allocation where the aggregate distortions arising from political economy disappear in contrast when politicians are less patient than the citizens positive aggregate labor and capital taxes remain even asymptotically we conclude by providing a brief comparison of centralized

international lending with moral hazard and risk of repudiation in this paper i examine the constrained optimal pattern of capital flows between a lender and a borrower in an environment in which there are two impediments to forming contracts the first impediment to contracting arises from the assumption that lenders cannot observe whether borrowers invest or consume borrowed funds this assumption leads to a moral hazard problem in investment the second impediment arises from the assumption that the borrower as a sovereign nation may choose to repudiate his debts the optimal contract is shown to specify that the borrowing country experience a capital outflow when the worst realizations of national output occur this seemingly perverse capital outflow forms a necessary part of the optimal solution to the moral hazard problem in investment