balancing skilled with unskilled migration in an urbanizing agricultural economy summary in the early stages of economic development the migration of unskilled workers contributes to labor intensive manufacturing production in middle income countries however the migration of skilled workers becomes the more important factor in economic progress evaluating the skill content of migration patterns therefore is essential to understanding migration s economic implications for this purpose we investigate the determinants of skilled and unskilled migration decisions in vietnam rural higher education is shown to promote knowledge intensive production by encouraging skilled individuals to migrate to cities in complementary fashion commercial farm development helps alleviate urban overcrowding by encouraging unskilled individuals to remain at home

tax spend spend tax or fiscal synchronization a wavelet analysis in this article we use wavelet methodology to analyse the long term relationship between spending and taxes unlike the standard methodology that utilizes unit roots and cointegration with or with

evaluating the economic impact of international remittances on developing countries using household surveys a literature review abstract this literature review covers 50 recent empirical studies of the economic impact of international remittances on the developing world that are based on household survey data it begins by reviewing the considerable methodological problems confronting economic work on international remittances and then examines the strengths and weaknesses of various economic studies of the impact of remittances in the developing world on such outcomes as poverty and inequality health and education investment and savings labour supply and participation and economic growth it finds that while international remittances generally have a positive impact on poverty and health in the developing world remittances can have negative effects on labour supply education and economic growth

common trends the government s budget constraint and revenue smoothing abstract the requirement that the government s budget be balanced in present value terms is shown to be equivalent to the condition that government expenditures inclusive of interest tax receipts and seignorage be cointegrated the condition is in fact stronger requiring that the deficit inclusive of interest be stationary stationarity of the net of interest deficit is neither necessary nor sufficient for intertemporal budget balance however it does have implications for barro s tax smoothing hypothesis data for the period 1890 1986 are consistent with intertemporal budget balance but not with tax smoothing

market clearing with stochastic security part i formulation the first of this two paper series formulates a stochastic security constrained multi period electricity market clearing problem with unit commitment the stochastic security criterion accounts for a pre selected set of random generator and line outages with known historical failure rates and involuntary load shedding as optimization variables unlike the classical deterministic reserve constrained unit commitment here the reserve services are determined by economically penalizing the operation of the market by the expected load not served the proposed formulation is a stochastic programming problem that optimizes concurrently with the pre contingency social welfare the expected operating costs associated with the deployment of the reserves following the contingencies this stochastic programming formulation is solved in the second companion paper using mixed integer linear programming methods two cases are presented a small transmission constrained three bus network scheduled over a horizon of four hours and the ieee reliability test system scheduled over 24 h the impact on the resulting generation and reserve schedules of transmission constraints and generation ramp limits of demand side reserve of the value of load not served and of the constitution of the pre selected set of contingencies are assessed

north american migration returns to skill border effects and mobility costs utilizing a utility maximizing roy type discrete choice model of worker location in canadian provinces and u s states that incorporates returns to skill amenities fixed costs distance langua

do external grants to district governments discourage own revenue generation a look at local public finance dynamics in ghana summary using rich panel data on all of ghana s districts local public finances over 11 years this paper investigates the way that intergovernmental and other transfers to local governments affect local governments incentives to collect internally generated revenues and funds igf we find that despite an incentive scheme built into one of the major intergovernmental grants the flow of all grants taken together discourages rather than encourages igf this is reflected both in the depressing effect of transfers on igf levels as well as on igf growth

seasonal migration and agricultural production in vietnam abstract when markets are incomplete migration can have multiple effects on agricultural production i use instrumental variables techniques to explore the effects of seasonal migration on agricultural production in rural vietnam during the 1990s using network variables specific to vietnam as instruments i find that migrant households in north vietnam appear to move out of rice production and into the production of other crops inputs used by migrant households decrease relative to similar non migrant households the evidence is consistent with a shift from labor intensive into land intensive crops rather than productivity changes or the use of additional capital in production

panel data modelling and the tax spend controversy in the euro zone this article attempts to differentiate between the debatable tax and spend spend and tax fiscal synchronization and institutional separation hypotheses in order to explore empirically the interplay between public expenditures and public revenues in the economic and monetary union emu member states for this purpose panel data models are derived to test the validity of the four hypotheses in emu countries a notable characteristic of this article is that the four hypotheses are tested by dividing emu countries into various subgroups and using disaggregated data for government expenditures and revenues seeking for the robustness of the empirical evidence the panel data methods of generalized two stage least squares gtsls and generalized method of moments gmm are accordingly applied to identify the relationship between public outlays and taxation receipts gtsls and gmm results strongly support the fiscal synchronization hypothesis implying that budget decision making is significantly influenced b

co integration and error correction models the temporal causality between government taxes and spending several interesting papers have recently considered whether government taxes granger cause government spending or vice versa the findings based on standard granger 6 causality tests are not consistent manage and marlow 10 conclude that when evidence of one way causality exists federal taxes granger cause federal spending while anderson wallace and warner 1 conclude that the evidence supports one way causality in the opposite direction ram 11 reexamining the issue concludes that taxes granger cause spending at the federal level but that spending granger causes taxes at the state and local level von furstenberg green and jeong 13 in another related article examine the tax and spend spend and tax causality issue using a more general vector autoregressive var model they introduce in addition to federal taxes and spending two economic variables the gnp gap and the inflation rate decompose federal spending into several categories and remove the effects of automatic stabilizers when appropriate they find little evidence that taxes granger cause spending and limited evidence that spending causes taxes a finding which corresponds most closely to that of anderson wallace and warner 1 our purpose is to reconsider the causality issue with the aid of co integration and errorcorrection modeling our analysis illustrates with a specific example how sources of causality can be neglected in standard granger causality tests moreover addressing the question of temporal causality between government taxes and spending provides insight as to how different policies might or might not help control the growth of government the results of our estimating various co integration and error correction models with quarterly data suggest bi directional causality between government taxes and spending both for the federal and state and local sectors this finding counters the conclusions of previous studies when annual data are used however our

stochastic security for operations planning with significant wind power generation in their attempt to cut down on greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation several countries are committed to install wind power generation up to and beyond the 10 20 penetration mark however the large scale integration of wind power represents a challenge for power system operations planning because wind power 1 cannot be dispatched in the classical sense and 2 its output varies as weather conditions change this warrants the investigation of alternative short term power system operations planning methods capable of better coping with the nature of wind generation while maintaining or even improving the current reliability and economic performance of power systems to this end this paper formulates a short term forward electricity market clearing problem with stochastic security capable of accounting for nondispatchable and variable wind power generation sources the principal benefit of this stochastic operation planning approach is that when compared to a deterministic worst case scenario planning philosophy it allows greater wind power penetration without sacrificing security

rural urban migration household vulnerability and welfare in vietnam summary this paper investigates the interaction of migration vulnerability to poverty and welfare of rural households in three provinces in central vietnam it addresses three questions 1 to what extent do shocks motivate rural household members to move to urban areas 2 are migrants in the new urban settings better off in terms of working conditions and quality of life and 3 what is the effect of migration on rural household s welfare and vulnerability to poverty the analysis uses panel data of 2200 households from rural vietnam covering the period 2007 2010 and a tracking survey of 299 migrants from 2010 the empirical evidence from a probit model shows that migration especially migration for employment is a livelihood support strategy for households exposed to agricultural and economic shocks migration for education is more likely observed among households with higher human capital and being financially better off nevertheless the probability of migration decreases with the employment opportunity in the village migrants perceive themselves to be better off at the place of destination but income losses from shocks of their rural households may reduce their employment quality the results from difference in difference specifications with propensity score matching techniques suggest that migration has positive income growth effects and that these effects are more pronounced in provinces with fewer job opportunities these effects help not only migrant households moving out of poverty but it also improves the poverty situation in rural areas

budget deficits and national saving are politicians exogenous during the thirty five year period following world war ii the federal budget deficit averaged less than one percent of net national product never once exceeding five percent for the five year period from 1982 86 the budget deficit never once fell below five percent of net national product there have been some modest cutbacks recently and the deficit is likely to fall to about four percent of net national product in 1988 further declines are now projected in the congressional budget office 1988 baseline forecast of the implications of present policies but both 1988 presidential candidates suggested many more policies that would increase than decrease the deficit these numbers indicate that after years of relative abstinence the united states has experimented with persistent budget deficits on a rather massive scale in the 1980s economists have generally been quite critical of this fiscal policy though there are at least three respectable minority views arguing that federal deficits are not so bad and quite possibly better than likely corrective measures the rationale for economists general opposition comes from those who hold what is called the neoclassical view of deficits according to this view if the united states should be treated as a closed economy persistent deficits will raise interest rates and lower investment if the united states should be treated as a small open economy persistent deficits will leave real interest rates and investment unchanged but the drop in national saving would be financed by higher foreign borrowing accomplished through a rise in the dollar and a drop in net exports either way net national saving falls and consumption rises at the expense of some combination of investment and net exports as a result living standards are higher in the present but lower in the future compared to what they would be in a world of no deficits

market clearing with stochastic security part ii case studies this paper analyzes the market clearing formulation with stochastic security developed in its companion paper through two case studies solved using mixed integer linear programming techniques the generation and reserve schedules as well as the nodal prices of energy and security are assessed under various conditions such as a line flow limits b when nonspinning reserve is excluded from the formulation c demand side valuation of energy not served d generator ramping limits and e the set of pre selected contingencies

two stage stochastic programming model for market clearing with contingencies planning for contingencies typically results in the use of more expensive facilities before disruptions it leads to different prices and energy availability at various network locations depending on how the contingency analysis is performed in this paper we present a two stage stochastic programming model for incorporating contingencies the model is computationally demanding and made tractable by using an interior point log barrier method coupled with benders decomposition the second stage optimal recourse function rf defines the most economically efficient actions in the post contingency state for returning the system back to normal operating conditions the approach is illustrated with for two examples small with 8 buses 11 branches and ieee medium scale with 300 buses 411 branches

uncertainty management in the unit commitment problem uncertainty in power systems operations has been traditionally managed by multistage decision making and operating reserve requirements a familiar example of multistage decisions is day ahead unit commitment and real time economic dispatch an alternate approach for managing uncertainty is a stochastic formulation which allows the explicit modeling of the sources of uncertainty this paper compares stochastic and reserve methods and evaluates the benefits of a combined approach for the efficient management of uncertainty in the unit commitment problem numerical studies show that unit commitment solutions obtained for the combined approach are robust and superior with respect to the traditional approach in terms of both economics and reliability metrics

the revenues expenditures nexus panel data evidence from swedish municipalities this paper examines the dynamic relationship between local government revenues and expenditures in sweden results from a panel of 265 municipalities covered over the time period 1974 87 show that i expenditures cause revenues while revenues do not cause expenditures ii intergovernmental grants both cause and are caused by expenditures and revenues iii lags of four years are needed to describe the dynamics among the fiscal variables and iv the parameters of the expenditures equation are time varying these results cast doubt on static modeling of local government activities and on models imposing time invariant parameters without ever testing for it

discussion of scheduling of spinning reserve considering customer choice on reliability the authors proposed a market model in which the energy and spinning reserve are cleared sequentially the experience has shown that this kind of market model can lead to quite undesirable situations such as price reversal problem the case of the pre 2001 california electricity market is the best example moreover by using sequential market clearing enough capacity may not be brought into the reserve market as a result post clearing market ad hoc manipulations would be required to turn on enough extra units to meet reliability targets lastly ignoring the coupling that exists between the energy and the reserve scheduling can lead to suboptimal or infeasible results

evolution toward standardized market design the evolution toward the standardized market design smd is presented in this paper with references to the market developments in new zealand australia pjm iso ne and ercot in the development of market designs two main objectives market liquidity facilitating bilateral trading and pricing efficiency facilitating congestion management have been pursued the efforts to balance the seemingly conflicting objectives led to most markets designed with a uniform or zonal pricing model introduction of locational marginal pricing and evolution of transmission rights from physical to financial form made it possible to harmonize the potentially conflicting goals in a market design the close coupling between energy and ancillary services requires that markets for these commodities be carefully coordinated different operational practices and reliability standard requirements have led to major differences in ancillary service market designs

risk constrained self scheduling of hydro wind units for short term electricity markets considering intermittency and uncertainty abstract in view of the intermittency and uncertainty associated with both the electricity production sector of restructured power system and their competitive markets it is necessary to develop an appropriate risk managing scheme so that it is desirable to trade off between optimum utilization of intermittent generation resources i e renewable energy resources uncertain market prices and related risks in order to maximize participants benefits and minimize the corresponding risks in the multi product market environment the main goal of this paper is to investigate risk management by introducing a novel multi risk index to quantify expected downside risk edr which is caused by both the wind power and market price uncertainties value at risk var method is used to assess the mentioned risk issue by the proposed weighted edr so that an optimal trade off between the profit and risk is made for the system operations also the roulette wheel mechanism is employed for random market price scenario generation wherein the stochastic procedure is converted into its respective deterministic equivalents moreover the autoregressive integrated moving average arima model is employed to characterize the stochastic wind farm wf generation by predetermined mean level and standard deviation of wind behavior as well as temporal correlation the problem is formulated as a mixed integer stochastic framework for a hydro wind power system scheduling and tested on a generation company genco

causation spending and taxes sand in the sandbox or tax collector for the welfare state causal relations between federal expenditure and taxation are analyzed using an approach based on the invariance of econometric relationships in the face of structural interventions institutional evidence for interventions or changes of regime combined with econometric tests for structural breaks are used to investigate the relative stability of conditional and marginal probability distributions for each variable the patterns of stability are the products of underlying causal order the authors find two distinct causal structures operating in the postwar era before the mid 1960s taxes appear to cause spending after the late 1960s taxes and spending are causally independent copyright 1992 by american economic association

is the budget deficit too large yes specifically we find that recent spending and taxing policies of the government if continued violate the government s intertemporal budget constraint as a result government spending must be reduced and or tax revenues must be increased these conclusions are based on tests of whether government spending and revenue are cointegrated in addition to examining real spending and revenue we also normalize these variables by real gnp and population for a growing economy these normalized measures are perhaps more pertinent we also test and find support for the hypothesis that deficits have become a problem only in recent years

using a discontinuous grant rule to identify the effect of grants on local taxes and spending when investigating the effects of federal grants on the behavior of lower level governments it is hard to defend the handling of grants as an exogenous factor federal governments often set grants based on characteristics and performance of decentralized governments in this paper we make use of a discontinuity in the swedish grant system in order to estimate the causal effects of general intergovernmental grants on local spending and local tax rates the formula for the distribution of funds is used as an exclusion restriction in an iv estimation we find evidence of crowding in where federal grants are shifted to more local spending but not to reduced local tax rates

a theory of urban growth in an economy experiencing endogenous economic growth and exogenous population growth we explore two main themes how urbanization affects efficiency of the growth process and how growth affects patterns of urbanization localized information spillovers promote agglomeration and human capital accumulation fosters endogenous growth individual city sizes grow with local human capital accumulation and knowledge spillovers and city numbers generally increase which we demonstrate is consistent with empirical evidence we analyze whether local governments can successfully internalize local dynamic externalities in addition we explore how growth involves real income differences across city types and how urbanization can foster income inequality most nonagricultural production in developed countries occurs in metropolitan areas the underlying reasons why economic activity agglomerates into cities localized information and knowledge spillover also make cities the engines of economic growth in an we gratefully acknowledge support of the national science foundation grants sbr 9422440 and sbr9730142 for this research the work has benefited from conversations with harl ryder on the dynamics of the model and from comments by gilles duranton and participants in seminars at brown colorado and texas austin and a presentation at an isit seminar sponsored by the centre for economic policy research and the national bureau of economic research

on the limitations of government borrowing a framework for empiricaltesting this paper seeks to distinguish empirically between two views on the limitations of government borrowing according to one view nothing precludes the government from running a permanent budget deficit paying interest due on the growing debt load simply by issuing new debt an alternative perspective holds that creditors would be unwilling to purchase government debt unless the government made a credible commitment to balance its budget in present value terms we show that distinguishing between these possibilities is mathematically equivalent to testing whether a continuing currency inflation might be fueled by speculation alone or is instead driven solely by economic fundamentals empirical tests which have been developed for this economic question lead us to conclude that postwar u s deficits are largely consistent with the proposition that the government budget must be balanced in present value terms this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

three or two stage stochastic market clearing algorithm as the power industry considers moving from a deterministic paradigm to a stochastic one to clear the day ahead market in systems with significant stochastic production the following question arises how should a stochastic clearing algorithm be formulated our analyses indicate that a three stage stochastic approach is clearly superior to a two stage one to show this we propose a model that includes three stages the first one represents the day ahead market the second stage the intraday market and the third one the real time operation the objective is to clear the day ahead market but with a prognosis of the future the intraday market and the real time operation to assess the impact of the intraday market on the day ahead outcomes we compare the results obtained from the proposed model with those of a simpler but more common two stage model which represents the day ahead market and the real time operation

government spending and taxation what causes what in the past few years as federal deficits have risen to high nominal levels economists have argued about the effect that raising taxes ostensibly to reduce deficits might have on government spending some economists including milton friedman have argued that raising taxes will simply lead to more spending others including james buchanan and richard wagner have said that the high deficits themselves have been responsible for the growth of federal spending and that if that spending had to be financed completely by direct taxes people would demand that the federal government spend less a third group led by robert barro says that increased taxes and borrowing are results of increased government spending in section ii we briefly review various hypotheses about the relationship between federal government spending and revenues section iii describes the testing procedure used to discriminate between these hypotheses the results of four tests are presented in section iv section v contains a summary and major conclusions to foreshadow what follows we find no evidence that higher real federal taxes today lead to either higher or lower federal spending tomorrow on the other hand we find strong evidence that higher spending now will lead to higher taxes later our results support a view of the world in which the political system somehow determines how much to spend and then looks for revenue sources to finance that level of spending including direct taxation borrowing and money creation we also find evidence that real federal revenues are positively affected by real gross national product gnp real federal spending also rises with real gnp but it appears to be independent of the rate of inflation

public employment and the double role of bureaucrats bureaucrats in the government sector have a double role since they are both suppliers and demanders of public employment they are publicly employed supply labor and they have an important say in deciding the size of the municipal employment demand labor in this paper we present and estimate a theoretical model that focuses on this double role of bureaucrats the predictions from the theoretical model are supported by our empirical results the estimates based on data from swedish municipalities 1990 2002 show that wages have smaller effects on the demand for bureaucrats than on the demand for other types of public employees actually wages have no significant effect on the number of bureaucrats the municipality employs

the impact of migration on rural poverty and inequality a case study in china large numbers of agricultural labor moved from the countryside to cities after the economic reforms in china migration and remittances play an important role in transforming the structure of rural household income this article examines the impact of rural to urban migration on rural poverty and inequality in a mountainous area of hubei province using the data of a 2002 household survey since migration income is a potential substitute for farm income we present counterfactual scenarios of what rural income poverty and inequality would have been in the absence of migration our results show that by providing alternatives to households with lower marginal labor productivity in agriculture migration leads to an increase in rural income in contrast to many studies that suggest that the increasing share of nonfarm income in total income widens inequality this article offers support for the hypothesis that migration tends to have egalitarian effects on rural income for three reasons 1 migration is rational self selection farmers with higher expected return in agricultural activities and or in local nonfarm activities choose to remain in the countryside while those with higher expected return in urban nonfarm sectors migrate 2 households facing binding constraints of land supply are more likely to migrate 3 poorer households benefit disproportionately from migration

demand for locally provided public services within the median voter s framework the case of the brazilian municipalities in this paper we estimated the demand for local public spending for the brazilian municipalities within a median voter s framework the rationale for applying that framework came from the fact that in federal systems voters preferences are more likely to be reflected at the local level as the consumers of public services have a better knowledge of the benefits and costs of the local public expenditures results obtained are consistent with the theoretical background thus suggesting that this hypothesis might be useful to describe the demand for local public goods in brazil in particular the use of quantile regression permitted us to investigate the impacts of the conditioning variables on local public expenses across different expenditures classes thus allowing for heterogeneity across municipalities our results also suggest that the impact of the city size on the quality of club goods shows crowding effects as is between zero and one however in the estimated models marginal congestion slightly d

network effects and the dynamics of migration and inequality theory and evidence from mexico international migration is costly and initially only the middle class of the wealth distribution may have both the means and incentives to migrate which can increase inequality in the sending community however the migration networks formed lower the costs for future migrants which can in turn lower inequality this paper shows both theoretically and empirically that wealth has a nonlinear effect on migration and then examines the empirical evidence for an inverse u shaped relationship between emigration and inequality in rural sending communities in mexico after instrumenting we find that the overall impact of migration is to reduce inequality across communities with relatively high levels of past migration we also find some suggestive evidence for an inverse u shaped relationship among communities with a wider range of migration experiences

a security constrained bid clearing system for the new zealand wholesale electricity market this paper reports upon the mathematical models and implementation of the scheduling pricing and dispatch spd application for the new zealand electricity market nzem spd analyzes bids for energy offers reserve offers and energy demands and recognizes explicitly the effects on bid clearing due to transmission congestion network losses reserve requirements and ramp rate limits advanced lp solution methods are utilized to solve the large scale constrained optimization problem results on a 67 bus test system and the nzem are included

a single settlement energy only electric power market for unpredictable and intermittent participants we discuss a stochastic programming based method for scheduling electric power generation subject to uncertainty such uncertainty may arise from either imperfect forecasting or moment to moment fluctuations and on either the supply or the demand side the method gives a system of locational marginal prices that reflect the uncertainty and these may be used in a market settlement scheme in which payment is for energy only we show that this scheme is revenue adequate in expectation

pricing energy and ancillary services in integrated market systems by an optimal power flow a detailed ac opf based formulation for procuring pricing and settling energy and ancillary service in simultaneous auctions by integrated market systems is presented the paper provides clear definitions of locational marginal prices for energy and ancillary service marginal prices in terms of lagrange multipliers the characteristics of the prices are analyzed especially when economic substitution among ancillary services is required the paper also evaluates the conditions under which opportunity costs are incurred to units that provide ancillary services it is particularly shown that the intuitive belief that the provision of regulation down service does not incur opportunity cost to the provider in general is not true

determinants and consequences of internal return migration in thailand and vietnam summary this paper draws a distinction between local return migrants who move back to their home village and regional return migrants who return to other places within their home provinces in thailand and vietnam using multinomial regressions we firstly analyze determinants of internal return migration and find that while local return migrants are lower educated than continuing migrants this negative human capital selection cannot be found for regional return migrants secondly after returning local return migrants often engage in agriculture while regional return migrants continue in nonfarm employment thereby diversifying the household income and consequently bringing potential for future economic development

energy and reserve pricing in security and network constrained electricity markets this paper analyzes some unresolved pricing issues in security constrained electricity markets subject to transmission flow limits although the notion of separate reserve types as proposed by ferc can be precisely and unambiguously defined when transmission constraints are active the very existence of separate reserve prices and markets is open to question when the prices are based on marginal costs instead we submit here that the only products whose marginal costs can be separately and uniquely defined and calculated are those of energy and security at each node thus under marginal pricing at any given network bus all scheduled reserve types should be priced not at separate rates but at a common rate equal to the marginal cost of security at that bus furthermore we argue that nodal or area reserves cannot be prespecified but must be obtained as by products of the market clearing process simulations back up these conclusions

towards full integration of demand side resources in joint forward energy reserve electricity markets this paper proposes a security constrained forward market clearing algorithm within which the inherent characteristics of demand flexibility are acknowledged when the provision of reserve from the demand side is considered in the proposed formulation we co optimize the cost of scheduling the appropriate resources to guarantee the security of the system and the expected cost of operating under any credible system state in addition we consider that consumers can offer to provide spinning reserve capacity deployable by voluntary load reductions in response to contingencies due to the load recovery effect i e since energy usage is essentially postponed when demand side reserve is deployed in post contingency states any voluntary reduction in the load has to be accompanied by a subsequent increase in demand from the initial forecast we demonstrate that the marginal value of the reserve provided by the demand can only be calculated taking into account the cost of supplying the recovery consumption flexible consumers can reduce their payments on average if energy is settled through real time prices

budget deficits rhetoric and reality w v t hatever the real or imagined ills of the economy the news media most politicians and a fair proportion of the economics profession are quick to point to the culprit the budget deficit no matter that few appear to know or care precisely what deficit they are talking about or how it is measured no matter that few bother to explain in terms of a relevant model just how government deficits may be expected to impact the economy no matter that few offer any empirical data to sustain their judgments so budget deficits cause inflation budget deficits raise interest rates budget deficits bring on the trade deficits budget deficits crowd out investment budget deficits are an irresponsible mortgage on the future and budget deficits caused the october 1987 stock market crash and now threaten further financial cataclysms is there truth in any of these assertions or does it all depend budget deficits do matter and their effects contrary to barro s ricardian equivalence theorem can be substantial as most economists have recognized for at least half a century budget deficits can however be too small as well as too large to know which you have to measure them right and you have to analyze their role in the world in which we live pure walrasian and rational expectation market clearing models may prove more useful for academic advancement than for promotion of economic health i need not repeat many of the objections to the equivalence theorem raised by bernheim and gramlich and addressed by barro in this symposium however there is

market implications and pricing of dynamic reserve policies for systems with renewables static reserve policies are used within security constrained unit commitment scuc and security constrained economic dispatch sced to ensure reliability a common policy is that 10 min reserve must exceed the largest contingency however this condition does not guarantee reliability because voltage and thermal limits can hinder reserve deliverability many operators use zonal reserve markets to ensure reserves are dispersed across the grid such zonal models attempt to anticipate transmission bottlenecks which is a difficult task when the future system state is uncertain this paper examines the market implications of dynamic reserve policies used to mitigate uncertainty from renewable resources and contingencies we study the market implications of policies recently proposed in the literature such as hourly zones within day ahead scuc and an algorithm that formally disqualifies reserves that are expected to be undeliverable a locational reserve pricing scheme is also proposed in connection with scenario based reserve disqualification analysis on the rts 96 test case shows that dynamic zones and reserve disqualification along with the proposed compensation scheme help direct reserve payments toward resources that more effectively respond to contingencies

government expenditures and revenues evidence from asymmetric modeling 1 introductionexamining the empirical relationship between government revenues and expenditures is a crucial step in understanding the future path of the budget deficit four alternative explanations have been used to describe the relationship between these variables in the budgetary process i the tax and spend hypothesis ii the spend and tax hypothesis iii the fiscal synchronization hypothesis and iv the institutional separation hypothesis the issue of which hypothesis best describes the nature of the budgetary process has yet to be resolved in the literature however existing research has implicitly assumed that the state of the budget and whether or not the budget deficit or surplus is worsening or improving does not matter we argue that government decision makers may take these factors into account when determining expenditures and tax policy as such this article reexamines the tax spend debate by using a more robust econometric technique that allows for asymmetry in the relationship between revenues and expenditures until now the empirical evidence on the tax spend debate has focused almost exclusively on two conventional econometric techniques depending on the cointegrating properties between revenues and expenditures these techniques are based on either variations of the unrestricted vector autoregression uvar or the vector autoregression error correction model ecm 1 if for example the two budgetary variables are not cointegrated then the application of causality2 tests requires the use of stationary variables in the uvar model 3 on the other hand if the two budgetary variables are cointegrated then the application of causality tests requires an ecm specification it is important to note that the ecm specification implicitly assumes that the adjustment process of expenditures and revenues due to disequilibrium between the variables is strictly symmetric indeed if the adjustment is asymmetric then the symmetric adjustment implicitly assumed in the conventional techniques to ascertain causality implies model misspecification this specification error may lead to misguided and perhaps inappropriate fiscal policy decisions accurate estimation of the revenue and expenditure process is especially important as changes in taxes and spending alter incentives for work investment and productive activity cea 2004 thus the anticipated behavioral responses of households and businesses may be better captured by more general models that allow for asymmetry in the tax spend relationship to this end this article examines the existence of cointegration between revenues and expenditures and the corresponding ecm specification by using the recently developed techniques of asymmetric modeling in particular we employ the threshold autoregression tar and momentum threshold autoregression m tar models developed by enders and granger 1998 and enders and siklos 2001 within the context of these models we shed new light on whether budget surpluses versus budget deficits or an improving budget versus a worsening budget have asymmetric effects on the dynamic behavior of expenditures and revenues there is an a priori rationale for modeling asymmetry in the budget and for the response of its components to disequilibrium this rationale can be categorized into four factors first the fiscal policymakers may respond differently to a deviation of the deficit or surplus from its long run trend one would expect for example that the response would be more aggressive if the deficit was greater than its long run trend than if it was less than its trend second it is widely acknowledged that there is a very close connection between the budget and the business cycle through automatic fiscal stabilizers and discretionary fiscal measures to the extent that the business cycle is asymmetric the associated change in the budget may also be asymmetric

the revenues expenditures nexus evidence from local government data this paper examines the intertemporal linkages between local government expenditures and revenues the main results that emerge from an analysis of fiscal data from 171 municipal governments over the period 1972 80 are that 1 one or two years are sufficient to summarize the relevant dynamic interrelationships 2 there are important intertemporal linkages between expenditures taxes and grants and 3 past revenues help predict current expenditures but past expenditures do not alter the future path of revenues this last finding is contrary to results that have emerged from previous analyses of federal fiscal data copyright 1989 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

stochastic optimization of sub hourly economic dispatch with wind energy we present a stochastic programming framework for a multiple timescale economic dispatch problem to address integration of renewable energy resources into power systems this framework allows certain slow response energy resources to be controlled at an hourly timescale while fast response resources including renewable resources and related network decisions can be controlled at a sub hourly timescale to this end we study two models motivated by actual scheduling practices of system operators using an external simulator as driver for sub hourly wind generation we optimize these economic dispatch models using stochastic decomposition a sample based approach for stochastic programming computational experiments conducted on the ieee rts96 system and the illinois system reveal that optimization with sub hourly dispatch not only results in lower expected operational costs but also predicts these costs with far greater accuracy than with models allowing only hourly dispatch our results also demonstrate that when compared with standard approaches using the extensive formulation of stochastic programming the sequential sampling approach of stochastic decomposition provides better predictions with much less computational time

pricing energy and reserves using stochastic optimization in an alternative electricity market this paper presents a stochastic linear programming model that can be used for pricing in electrical energy and reserve markets it addresses capacity energy and reserve dispatch problems that may arise from n 1 contingency scenarios possible market solutions focusing on generator compensation using real time day ahead and hybrid schemes are enumerated along with opportunities for consumer pricing and transmission costing this model is illustrated on a 6 bus test system as well as a larger 66 bus system representing the ontario network a key difference among schemes is the degree of risk to the generators measured by variance in profit

do revenues or expenditures respond to budgetary disequilibria the post world war ii increase in the size of the federal government has led to a number of theoretical and empirical investigations of the sources of this growth in particular economists have questioned whether increases in the size of the federal budget tend to be initiated by changes in expenditures followed by revenue adjustments by the reverse sequence or both friedman for example argues that governments adjust expenditures to the level of revenues so that control of taxation is essential to limit growth in government 13 alternatively the spend and tax model posits that revenues will be adjusted to finance any politically chosen level of expenditures a third perspective reflecting the institutional separation of allocation and taxation functions of the federal government hypothesizes the independent determination of revenues and expenditures the goal of this investigation is to test these three alternative theories of the budgetary process for the united states

the new economics of labor migration this paper reviews selected theoretical and empirical developments in the field of labor migration economics the migration behavior of individuals differs in accordance with their perceived relative deprivation those who are relatively more deprived tend to have stronger incentive to migrate than those who are relatively less deprived moreover a reference group characterized by more income inequality is likely to generate more relative deprivation highly skilled workers are also more likely to migrate migration decisions are often made jointly by the migrant and nonmigrant with a contractual arrangement regarding the sharing of costs and returns the exchange of commitments to share income provides coinsurance of particular interest are the determinants of the speed of adoption of migration as an innovation and the characteristics associated with the delay in the adoption of innovation new econometric techniques including techniques for the analysis of qualitative dependent variables techniques that correct for sample selection bias and those for the analysis of longitudinal data have substantially benefited empirical research in this area new methods that can correct for the biased estimate of the wages particular individuals would receive at 2 or more locations at the same point in time allow researchers to test locational decsion making models estimates of these structural models of labor migration support the hypothesis that individuals respond to income incentives in making the decsion to migrate further research is needed on the pazzling observation that migrant workers earn less than native born workers with similar characteristics during the 1st few years after migration but more thereafter other topics that need further research include the macroeconomic effects of migration the microeconomic and macroeconomic relationships between aging and labor migration and the migration behavior of dual earner families

an examination of the dynamic behaviour of local governments using gmm bootstrapping methods an examination of the dynamic behavior of local governments using gmm bootstrapping methods

load following reserves procurement considering flexible demand side resources under high wind power penetration the variable and uncertain nature of the leading renewable energy resources such as wind power generation imposes the development of a sophisticated balance mechanism between supply and demand to maintain the consistency of a power system in this study a two stage stochastic programming model is proposed to procure the required load following reserves from both generation and demand side resources under high wind power penetration besides a novel load model is introduced to procure flexible reserves from industrial clients load following reserves from load serving entities lse are also taken into account as well as network constraints load shedding and wind spillage the proposed methodology is applied to an illustrative test system as well as to a 24 node system

the causal relation between federal expenditures and receipts federal expenditures have consistently exceeded federal revenues since 1970 in fact the federal government has seen a surplus in only five years since 1950 the symptoms of such fiscal imbalance are of course budget deficits while budget deficits are nothing new in u s history the recent and projected size of the deficit during peacetime nonrecessionary years has been the cause of much concern to academics the news media and politicians this preoccupation with federal deficits has produced a variety of policy proposals to deal with them

economic valuation of reserves in power systems with high penetration of wind power this paper proposes a methodology to determine the required level of spinning and nonspinning reserves in a power system with a high penetration of wind power the computation of the required reserve levels and their costs is achieved through a stochastic programming market clearing model spanning a daily time horizon this model considers the network constraints and takes into account the cost of both the load shedding and the wind spillage the methodology proposed is illustrated using an example and a realistic case study some conclusions are finally drawn

beyond the purchasing power parity testing for cointegration and causality between exchange rates prices and interest rates abstract this paper reexamines the causality between the dollar and the yen in a multivariate framework with the aid of cointegration and error correcting modeling for the 1951 94 period the phillips perron tests and johansen s tests are performed while causality from interest rates to exchange rates is found in the short run no causality between prices and exchange rates is found in the short run however causality is found running from relative prices to exchange rates along with interest rates between the u s and japan in the long run which supports the long run ppp hypothesis

the swiss reserve market stochastic programming in practice this paper presents the evolution and design of the swiss reserve market and describes its two stage stochastic market clearing model in switzerland the reserve market comprises weekly and daily auctions the decision making problem is to determine the amount of reserves that should be procured in each market stage the stochasticity stems from daily offers which are not available at the beginning of the week when the first stage decisions are made the new market clearing model minimizes expected procurement costs of reserves while taking reserve dimensioning criteria and market properties into consideration since the last week of january 2014 this model has been clearing the reserve market in switzerland to our knowledge this is the first real world implementation of a stochastic market clearing model in electricity markets

a stochastic programming model for a day ahead electricity market with real time reserve shortage pricing we present a multi period stochastic mixed integer programming model for power generation scheduling in a day ahead electricity market the model considers various scenarios and integrates the idea of reserve shortage pricing in real time instead of including all the possible scenarios we parsimoniously select a certain number of scenarios to limit the size of the model as realistic size models are still intractable for exact methods we propose a heuristic solution methodology based on scenario rolling that is capable of finding good quality feasible solutions within reasonable computation time

tax and spend spend and tax or fiscal synchronization new evidence for ten countries cointegration and vector autoregression are used to test the tax and spend spend and tax and fiscal synchronization for ten countries using annual time series data over the period 1951 to 1996 three of them are part of the newly industrialized countries of asia south korea taiwan and thailand and seven are industrialized countries australia canada japan new zealand south africa uk and the usa this paper includes gdp as a control variable into the model like baghestani and mcnown 1994 ross and payne 1998 and koren and stiassny 1998 the johansen 1988 and johansen and juselius 1990 cointegration test results indicate that these three variables are cointegrated with two cointegrating vectors for south korea one vector for australia canada south africa taiwan uk and the usa and no vector for japan new zealand and thailand the results from granger causality tests suggest unidirectional causality running from revenues to spending supporting the tax and spend hypoth

using a system model to decompose the effects of influential factors on locational marginal prices locational marginal prices lmps are influenced by various factors such as load uncertainty thermal limit capacity reserve and market power we build a system model to quantitatively analyze the effects of these individual factors and their interactions on the mean and standard deviation of the lmps assuming that the factors are either active or inactive according to the sensitivity analysis results from convex quadratic programming lmps are piecewise linear functions of demand variation which is a key property used in the computation this paper attempts to answer the following types of questions 1 to what extent does market power raise the lmps above the marginal cost 2 what effects will generation or transmission capacity expansion have on relieving high lmps under high demand scenarios an ieee 30 bus test system is used as an example to demonstrate our approach

security constrained unit commitment for simultaneous clearing of energy and ancillary services markets this paper introduces a security constrained unit commitment scuc model with emphases on the simultaneous optimization of energy and ancillary services markets benders decomposition is used to decouple the scuc into a unit commitment uc master problem and hourly network security checking subproblems lagrangian relaxation is used to decouple the uc problem into individual single unit commitment problems dynamic programming is used to find the optimal commitment decision a simultaneous marginal curve algorithm is proposed to find the optimal values of energy and ancillary services a six bus system with three units and the ieee 118 bus system with 54 units are analyzed to illustrate the proposed model

the dynamic adjustment of local government budgets does spain behave differently the aim of this article is to analyse whether spanish municipalities adjust in response to budget shocks and if so which elements of the budget they are more likely to adjust the methodology we use to answer these questions is a vector error correction model vecm estimated with data from a panel of spanish municipalities during the period 1988 to 2006 our results confirm that spanish municipalities do indeed make adjustments in response to fiscal shocks i e the deficit is stationary in the long run we compare our results with those obtained for us and germany to evaluate if the viability of local finance depends on the institutional arrangement and to analyse how it affects the adjustment patterns we observe that grants have a more important role in the adjustment process in environments where either they have an equalization objective or where there is no clear rule that determines their distribution this fact can generate a moral hazard problem governments tend to spend more due to the exp

electricity market clearing with improved scheduling of stochastic production abstract in this paper we consider an electricity market that consists of a day ahead and a balancing settlement and includes a number of stochastic producers we first introduce two reference procedures for scheduling and pricing energy in the day ahead market on the one hand a conventional network constrained auction purely based on the least cost merit order where stochastic generation enters with its expected production and a low marginal cost on the other a counterfactual auction that also accounts for the projected balancing costs using stochastic programming although the stochastic clearing procedure attains higher market efficiency in expectation than the conventional day ahead auction it suffers from fundamental drawbacks with a view to its practical implementation in particular it requires flexible producers those that make up for the lack or surplus of stochastic generation to accept losses in some scenarios using a bilevel programming framework we then show that the conventional auction if combined with a suitable day ahead dispatch of stochastic producers generally different from their expected production can substantially increase market efficiency and emulate the advantageous features of the stochastic optimization ideal while avoiding its major pitfalls a two node power system serves as both an illustrative example and a proof of concept finally a more realistic case study highlights the main advantages of a smart day ahead dispatch of stochastic producers

stochastic multiobjective market clearing of joint energy and reserves auctions ensuring power system security in this paper a stochastic multiobjective framework is proposed for day ahead joint market clearing the proposed multiobjective framework can concurrently optimize competing objective functions including augmented generation offer cost and security indices overload index voltage drop index and voltage stability margin besides system uncertainties including generating units and branches contingencies and load uncertainty are explicitly considered in the stochastic market clearing scheme the solution methodology consists of two stages which firstly employs roulette wheel mechanism and monte carlo simulation mcs for random adaptive 24 h scenario generation wherein the stochastic multiobjective market clearing procedure is converted into its respective deterministic equivalents scenarios in the second stage for each deterministic scenario a multiobjective mathematical programming mmp formulation based on the epsiv constrained approach is implemented for provision of spinning reserve sr and nonspinning reserve nsr as well as energy the mmp formulation of the market clearing process is optimized while meeting ac power flow constraints and expected interruption cost eic the ieee 24 bus reliability test system rts 24 bus is used to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method

inter provincial migration and inequality during vietnam s transition abstract vietnam s economic boom during the transition to a market economy has centered on very rapid growth in some sectors and provinces yet poverty has diminished across the entire country with capital investments highly concentrated by province and sector geographic labor mobility may be critical in spreading the gains from growth conversely rising income inequality may be attributable in part to impediments to migration we first use census data to investigate migration patterns and determinants we then examine the role of migration as an influence on income ratios between pairs of provinces the former analysis robustly confirms economic motives for migration but also suggests the existence of poverty related labor immobility at the provincial level examination of income ratios between pairs of provinces reveals that the impact of migration on inequality can be either negative or positive a robust inequality reducing impact of migration is found for migration flows into provinces where most of vietnam s trade oriented industrial investments are located

measuring the importance of oil related revenues in total fiscal income for mexico revenues from oil exports are an important part of government budgets in mexico a time series analysis is conducted using monthly data from 1990 to 2005 examining three different specifications to determine how international oil price fluctuations and government income generated from oil exports influence fiscal policy in mexico the behavior of government spending and taxation is consistent with the spend tax hypothesis the results show that there is an inverse relationship between oil related revenues and tax revenue from non oil sources fiscal policy reform is urgently needed in order to improve tax collection as oil reserves in mexico become more and more depleted

self selection and internal migration in the united states abstract within the conceptual framework of the roy model this paper provides an empirical analysis of internal migration flows using data from the national longitudinal survey of youth the theoretical approach highlights regional differences in the returns to skills regions that pay higher returns to skills attract more skilled workers than regions that pay lower returns our empirical results suggest that interstate differences in the returns to skills are a major determinant of both the size and skill composition of internal migration flows persons whose skills are most mismatched with the reward structure offered by their current state of residence are the persons most likely to leave that state and these persons tend to relocate in states which offer higher rewards for their particular skills

uncertainty marginal price transmission reserve and day ahead market clearing with robust unit commitment the increasing penetration of renewable energy in recent years has led to more uncertainties in power systems these uncertainties have to be accommodated by flexible resources i e upward and downward generation reserves in this paper a novel concept uncertainty marginal price ump is proposed to price both the uncertainty and generation reserve at the same time the energy is priced at locational marginal price lmp a novel market clearing mechanism is proposed to credit the generation and reserve and to charge the load and uncertainty within the robust unit commitment in the day ahead market we derive the umps and lmps in the robust optimization framework ump helps allocate the cost of generation reserves to uncertainty sources we prove that the proposed market clearing mechanism leads to partial market equilibrium we find that transmission reserves must be kept explicitly in addition to generation reserves for uncertainty accommodation we prove that transmission reserves for ramping delivery may lead to financial transmission right ftr underfunding in existing markets the ftr underfunding can be covered by congestion fund collected from uncertainty payment in the proposed market clearing mechanism simulations on a six bus system and the ieee 118 bus system are performed to illustrate the new concepts and the market clearing mechanism