the high scope perry preschool program cost benefit analysis using data from the age 40 followup this paper presents an updated cost benefit analysis of the high scope perry preschool program using data on individuals aged 40 children were randomly assigned to a treatment or control group program costs are compared against treatment impacts on educational resources earnings criminal activity and welfare receipt net present values are calculated for participants the general public and society the treatment group obtains significantly higher earnings for the general public higher tax revenues lower criminal justice system expenditures and lower welfare payments easily outweigh program costs they repay 12 90 for every 1 invested however program gains come mainly from reduced crime by males

state dependent pricing invoicing currency and exchange rate pass through abstract we analyze exchange rate pass through and volatility of import prices in a dynamic framework where firms are subject to menu costs and decide on price adjustments in response to exchange rate innovations the exchange rate pass through and import price volatility then depend on the invoicing currency in combination with functional forms of cost and demand functions in particular there is lower pass through less frequent price adjustments and lower price volatility when prices are set in the importer s currency than when prices are set in the exporter s currency

exchange rate pass through and the welfare effects of the euro this article explores the implications of the european single currency within a simple sticky price intertemporal model we focus on the question of how the euro may change the sensitivity of consumer prices in europe to exchangerate changes our central conjecture is that the acceptance of the euro will lead european prices to become more insulated from exchange rate volatility we find that this affects both the volatility and levels of macroeconomic aggregates in both the u s and europe we find that european welfare is enhanced and the u s shares in europe s good fortune

revisiting the importance of non tradable goods prices in cyclical real exchange rate fluctuations abstract in an influential paper engel 1999 argues that essentially all the fluctuations in the real exchange rate can be attributed to fluctuations in the relative price of traded goods and that only a small part of the fluctuations can be attributed to changes in the relative price of non tradables we revisit this important issue and our main finding suggests that the relative distribution wedge i e the relationship between traded goods prices at the dock and the retail prices of those goods is key to understanding real exchange rate fluctuations importantly our results suggest that variations in the relative wedge are driven by fluctuations in mark ups and not in distribution costs

twin dollarization and exchange rate policy abstract this paper develops a small open economy general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities to study twin dollarization in east asian economies a phenomenon where firms borrow in us dollars and also set export prices in us dollars in this model we endogenize both the currency of liability denomination and the currency of export pricing we show that a key factor that affects firms dollarization decisions is exchange rate policy twin dollarization is an optimal strategy for all firms when exchange rate flexibility is limited which implies that a fixed exchange rate regime may lead to an equilibrium with twin dollarization furthermore we find that twin dollarization can reduce the welfare loss caused by the fixed exchange rate regime as it helps to cushion the economy against domestic nominal risk

network effects homogeneous goods and international currency choice new evidence on oil markets from an older era conventional wisdom has it that network effects are strong in markets for homogenous goods leading to the dominance of one settlement currency in such markets the dominance of the us dollar in global oil markets is said to epitomize this phenomenon we question this presumption with evidence for earlier periods showing that several national currencies have simultaneously played substantial roles in global oil markets european oil import payments before and after world war ii were split between the dollar and non dollar currencies mainly sterling differences in use of the dollar across countries were associated with trade linkages with the united states and the size of the importing country that several national currencies could simultaneously play a role in international oil settlements suggests that a shift from the current dollar based system toward a multipolar system in the period ahead is not impossible

reducing drunken driving which policies are most effective traffic fatalities are the leading cause of accidental deaths and the leading cause of all deaths for people between the ages of 16 and 25 4 a major cause of traffic accidents is drunken driving reed 12 estimates that the annual number of deaths could be reduced by 12 000 if all drunken driving were eliminated recently increased attention has been directed toward finding ways to reduce the incidence of drunken driving this paper evaluates the relative effectiveness of several policies in terms of reduced fatalities these policies include raising the minimum legal drinking age increasing legal sanctions and enforcement and increasing the price and reducing the availability of alcoholic beverages most studies have focused on a single policy studies by cook 3 mccornac 7 and williams et al 16 examined the effect of raising the minimum legal drinking age their results indicate that auto fatalities have fallen in states where the minimum legal drinking age has been increased ross 13 and votey 15 both examined the drunken driving deterrence policies in scandanavian countries ross was unable to show that they had any effect on behavior using a more sophisticated model votey concluded that the severe deterrence policies reduced the incidence of drunken driving cook and tauchen 2 found that increasing taxes on alcoholic beverages reduced consumption and led to fewer auto fatalities and a lower incidence of cirrhosis death

distribution capital and the short and long run import demand elasticity the elasticity of substitution between home and foreign goods is one of the most important parameters in international economics the international macro literature which is primarily concerned with short run business cycle fluctuations assigns a low value to this parameter the international trade literature which is more concerned with long run changes in trade flows following a change in relative prices assigns a high value to this parameter this paper constructs a model where this discrepancy between the short and long run elasticities is due to frictions in distribution goods need to be combined with a local non traded input distribution capital which is good specific home and foreign goods may be close substitutes but if distribution capital is slow to adjust then agents cannot shift their consumption in the short run following a change in relative prices and home and foreign goods appear as poor substitutes in the short run in the long run this distribution capital can be reallocated and agents can shift their purchases following a change in relative prices thus the observed substitutability gets larger as time passes

price dispersion and the border effect abstract cross country price differences could reflect regional market segmentation within countries or national segmentation at the border in a search based model of price setting identifying national versus regional segmentation requires data on regional trade flows a calibration to u s and canadian data implies predominantly regional frictions u s producers are three times more likely to sell in their home region than another u s region and canadian producers are seven times more likely to sell in their home region than another canadian region frictions vis a vis foreign regions are only slightly higher models that ignore regional segmentation can misstate the severity of frictions at the border

exchange rate pass through in south africa panel evidence from individual goods and services abstract this study estimates pass through for south africa using samples of final goods and services and homogenous imports estimated pass through to consumer goods prices is low roughly 16 per cent in the two years following an exchange rate change surprisingly it is somewhat higher for services deviations from long run ppp appear to disappear relatively quickly with a half life of about 16 months for imports pass through estimates are much higher averaging around 60 per cent but with wide source country variation finally there is virtually no support for a simple linear trend change in either pass through or in reversion to ppp during the sample

the role of expenditure switching in the global imbalance adjustment abstract in theory nominal exchange rate movements can lead to expenditure switching when they generate changes in the relative prices of goods across countries this paper explores whether the expenditure switching role of exchange rates has changed in the current episode of significant global imbalances we develop a multi sector two country model for the united states and the g6 countries with the rest of the world captured by exogenous price and demand shocks and estimate the model over two sub samples which cover the periods before and after the early 1990s our results indicate that both u s imports and exports have become much less responsive to exchange rate movements in recent years mainly due to changes in firms pricing behavior and global trade pattern these findings suggest that the exchange rate would have to move by a much larger amount now than in the 1970s and 1980s to reduce the u s trade deficit by a given amount

a new approach to valuing a life abstract because the issue of how to put a monetary value on a life will always be controversial this paper presents an alternative approach that can in certain circumstances avoid the use of monetary values the alternative approach uses time as the numeraire this numeraire can handle both the ex ante and ex post approaches to valuing a life after showing how a simple two period consumer choice problem can be translated into terms of time the paper considers an application that involves reformulating the data used to evaluate the 55 mph speed limit decision in the united states

symmetric pass through of tariffs and exchange rates under imperfect competition an empirical test abstract this paper examines the effect of tariffs and exchange rates on u s prices of japanese cars trucks and motorcycles in particular we test whether the long run pass through of tariffs and exchange rates are identical the symmetry hypothesis we find that this hypothesis is easily accepted in our sample we also find that the pass through relation varies across products ranging from about 0 6 for trucks to unity for motorcycles these coefficients have very different implications for trade policy we explain the results based on demand cost and institutional conditions in each industry

longer term effects of head start specially collected data on adults in the panel study of income dynamics are used to provide evidence on the longer term effects of head start an early intervention program for poor preschool age children whites who attended head start are relative to their siblings who did not significantly more likely to complete high school attend college and possibly have higher earnings in their early twenties african americans who participated in head start are less likely to have been booked or charged with a crime there is some evidence of positive spillovers from older head start children to their younger siblings language en

three questions about sunspot equilibria as an explanation of economic fluctuations it is by now well known that the sort of difference equations that characterize the equilibrium conditions of an infinite horizon competitive economy may have solutions in which the endogenous variables fluctuate in response to sunspot variables that is to random events that in fact have nothing to do with economic fundamentals and so do not directly affect the equilibrium conditions it is possible to view such sunspot equilibria as a representation of an actual phenomenon economic fluctuations not caused by exogenous shocks to fundamentals but rather by revisions of agents expectations in response to some event which revised expectations become self fulfilling early discussions of such solutions sometimes suggested that a more rigorous derivation of the requirements for equilibrium might yield additional restrictions that would eliminate the sunspot solutions from the set of true equilibria the demonstration by karl shell 1977 david cass 1981 and costas azariadis 1981 that sunspot equilibria can exist in a rigorously formulated intertemporal equilibrium model namely the overlapping generations model of samuelson has shown that this is not always the case nevertheless many economists remain skeptical about the reasonableness of the sunspot hypothesis as a possible explanation of actual economic fluctuations and for quite general reasons independent of judgments about the empirical plausibility of any particular models i discuss here three such general reasons for skepticism

evolution of reciprocity in asymmetric international environmental negotiations we study the success of generalised trigger strategies in the evolution of cooperation in international environmental negotiations where the performance of these strategies is derived from asymmetric n player prisoners dilemmas our results suggest that there exist regions in the relevant parameter space i e costs and benefits low and high tit for tat thresholds probability of continued interaction such that partial cooperation may emerge as long run attractor of the evolutionary dynamics in these asymmetric social dilemmas

exchange rates and prices the adjustment of relative prices to exchange rate movements is explained in an industrial organization approach given labor costs in the respective currencies exchange rate movements change costs for firms selling in the home market and thus disturb the industry equilibrium the extent of absolute and relative price adjustment is shown to depend on market integration product substitutability the relative number of domestic and foreign firms and the market structure the impact of exchange rates on prices is illustrated in a variety of approaches including the cournot a dixit and j stiglitz 1977 and s salop 1979 models some empirical evidence is offered in support of the theory copyright 1987 by american economic association

an empirical analysis of the renminbi exchange rates and cross border trade settlement we introduce a gravity model to the currency choice for cross border trade settlement and the heckman selection model to estimate the impact of the exchange rate on the cross border trade settlement of the renminbi rmb we analyse bilateral exchange rates using panel data of china and 182 rmb settlement countries or areas from 2009 to 2014 we find that regardless the choice stage or scale stage of rmb cross border trade settlement the appreciation of the rmb does not necessarily promote rmb cross border trade settlement this result holds when we take geographic differences into account and split the settlement of cross border trade into merchandise and service trade we further investigate the channels through which exchange rate influences the cross border trade settlement of rmb and we find that the appreciation of rmb impedes enterprises from choosing rmb as their settlement currency by reducing the scale of export to rmb settlement areas whereas it speeds up rmb cross border trade settlement by increasing the scale of china s import from rmb settlement areas we find that china s economic strength supports the development of rmb cross border trade settlement however the geographical distance between china and the rmb settlement areas may inhibit cross border trade settlement in rmb

high exchange rate volatility and low pass through abstract two specifications of an open economy model are shown to generate high exchange rate volatility and low exchange rate pass through erpt in the model price discrimination causes erpt to be incomplete in both the short and the long run in the short run a small amount of nominal rigidities is enough to reduce erpt sharply still exchange rate depreciation worsens the terms of trade consistent with the evidence possible biases from omitted variables and measurement error in the erpt empirical literature due to data limitations are investigated using model generated time series estimates of erpt coefficients can be quite different from true parameters and are sensitive to the shocks driving the economies estimates can nonetheless detect key structural features of the models

international prices costs and markup differences relative cross border retail prices in a common currency comove closely with the nominal exchange rate using product level prices and wholesale costs from a grocery chain operating in the united states and canada we decompose this variation into relative costs and markup components the high correlation of nominal and real exchange rates is driven mainly by changes in relative costs national borders segment markets retail prices respond to changes in costs in neighboring stores within the same country but not across the border prices have a median discontinuous change of 24 percent at the border and 0 percent at state boundaries jel f31 l11 l81

accounting for real exchange rates using micro data the classical dichotomy predicts that all of the time series variance in the aggregate real exchange rate is accounted for by non traded goods in the cpi basket because traded goods obey the law of one price in stark contrast engel 1999 found that traded goods had comparable volatility to the aggregate real exchange rate our work reconciles these two views by successfully applying the classical dichotomy at the level of intermediate inputs into the production of nal goods using highly disaggregated retail price data since the typical good found in the cpi basket is about equal parts traded and non traded inputs we conclude that the classical dichotomy applied to intermediate inputs restores its conceptual value

road accident external effects an empirical assessment the relationship between the number of road accidents and the volume of traffic is econometrically estimated in this paper a stratified random sample of 399 road segments covering urban and rural roads in new york state usa in 1985 is analysed no significant externality is detected on ver high volume urban roads the marginal to average accident rate ratio is 1 06 on all other roads a ratio of 0 98 is estimated these findings contrast sharply with those of vickrey who estimated a ratio of 1 5 for california freeways in 1962 the results are however consistent with the official view of both the us and uk highway authorities that no significant accident externality exists

a model of relative national price levels under pricing to market abstract this paper proposes an alternative to the balassa samuelson theory of how relative price levels between countries are determined the theory is a general equilibrium formulation of a model where pricing to market arises endogenously from firm decisions it differs from balassa samuelson in that it centers on the distinction between segmented national goods markets rather than the distinction between traded and nontraded goods the paper also explores how balassa samuelson might be updated by combining it together with pricing to market elements applied to the case of a monetary union the theory offers an alternative explanation for the inflation differentials observed in emu it implies that such differentials may be a natural and enduring feature of a monetary union in which markets for goods and labor are less than fully integrated

on what states do prices depend answers from ecuador in this paper we argue that differences in the cost structure across sectors play an important role in the decision of firms to adjust their prices we develop a menu cost model of pricing in which retail firms intermediate trade between producers and consumers an important facet of our analysis is that the labor cost share of retail production differs across goods and services in the consumption basket for example the price of gasoline at the retail pump is predicted to adjust more frequently and by more than the price of a haircut due to the high volatility in wholesale gasoline prices relative to the wages of unskilled labor even when both retailers face a common menu cost this modeling approach allows us to account for some of the cross sectional differences observed in the frequency of price adjustments across goods we apply this model to ecuador to take advantage of inflation variations and the rich panel of monthly retail prices

the effects of the unemployment insurance payroll tax on wages employment claims and denials abstract following a 13 year period when all employers in washington paid the same unemployment insurance ui tax rate washington was forced to adopt an experience rated tax system in 1985 we use this natural experiment to explore both tax incidence and the effects of experience rating we find that industry average tax rates are largely passed on to workers through lower earnings however our estimates imply that a firm can shift much less of the difference between its tax rate and the industry average rate our results also indicate that experience rating reduces turnover and ui claims and increases claim denials

the rate of return to the high scope perry preschool program abstract this paper estimates the rate of return to the highscope perry preschool program an early intervention program targeted toward disadvantaged african american youth estimates of the rate of return to the perry program are widely cited to support the claim of substantial economic benefits from preschool education programs previous studies of the rate of return to this program ignore the compromises that occurred in the randomization protocol they do not report standard errors the rates of return estimated in this paper account for these factors we conduct an extensive analysis of sensitivity to alternative plausible assumptions estimated annual social rates of return generally fall between 7 and 10 with most estimates substantially lower than those previously reported in the literature however returns are generally statistically significantly different from zero for both males and females and are above the historical return on equity estimated benefit to cost ratios support this conclusion

dynamics of the u s price distribution abstract we use microdata underlying u s consumer producer and import price indices to document how the distribution of price changes evolves over time two striking features characterize pricing across all three datasets 1 frequency of price adjustments is countercyclical 2 frequency of price adjustments is correlated with variance conversely other statistics that have received recent attention like kurtosis do not exhibit uniform patterns across our data sets what implications do our empirical results have for monetary policy using a flexible accounting framework that collapses the high dimensional distribution of price changes into a single measure of aggregate price flexibility we show that flexibility is highly variable and countercyclical

international environmental agreements as evolutionary games this paper applies evolutionary game theory to international environmental agreements ieas contrary to stage game models barrett in j theor politics 11 519 541 1999 eur econ rev 45 1835 1850 2001 in an evolutionary equilibrium ee no signatory prefers to be outside the iea and the ee is robust to trembles with two populations there is a unique interior ee when there is decreasing returns to abatement and small asymmetry in the externality differences across populations at the interior ee transfers from the poor to the rich can increase payoffs for all nations but come at the expense of greater payoff inequality transfers can also eliminate the basin of attraction for the payoff inferior ee with decreasing returns to abatement and large asymmetry thus ieas such as the kyoto treaty predicated on the polluter pays and ability to pay principles may result in pareto inferior outcomes

exchange rate pass through and inflation a nonlinear time series analysis abstract this paper investigates the relationship between the exchange rate pass through erpt and inflation by estimating a nonlinear time series model based on a simple theoretical model of erpt determination we show that the dynamics of erpt can be well approximated by a class of smooth transition autoregressive star models using the past inflation rate as a transition variable we employ several u shaped transition functions in the estimation of the time varying erpt to us domestic prices the estimation result suggests that declines in the erpt during the 1980s and 1990s are associated with lowered inflation

exchange rate pass through at the product level we use a detailed database to investigate exchange rate pass through at the product level for a large number of countries the empirical analysis suggests that pricing behaviours are dichotomous with complete pass through in around 25 of sectors and significant pricing to market in the remaining ones average long run pass through coef ficient is close to 80 this result hides a strong heterogeneity of pass through behaviours across sectors even when composition effects are controlled for average pass through varies across importing countries the econometric analysis shows that pass through tends to be higher in volatile environments in less developed countries in weakly integrated markets jel classification f12 f31 f41

on the marginal welfare cost of taxation this paper develops a rigorous partial equilibrium analysis of the determinants of margin al welfare cost mwc of taxes on labor earnings it shows that four key parameters interact to determine the magnitude of mwc using aggregate data and plausible ranges of values for the parameters mwc can vary from under 10 percent to more than 300 percent of marginal tax revenue intermediate parameter values sugge st mwc is in the 25 50 percent range however the more extreme estimates cannot be ruled out on the basis of available evidence suggesting that mwc cannot yet be copyright 1987 by american economic association

measuring the intensity of competition in export markets abstract this paper develops an approach to measuring the intensity of competition in international markets using readily available data on destination specific values and quantities of exports at the seven digit industry level the intensity of competition a group of exporters faces in a particular export market is measured by the residual demand elasticity the group faces this elasticity is identified by exchange rate shocks which rotate the supply relation of the source country export group relative to competitors located in other countries we apply this method to german exports of beer and us exports of linerboard paper the resulting estimates of market power appear to be plausible and consistent with other indicators of competition e g market shares the number of competitors providing support for the applicability of our framework in measuring competition in international markets

hyteresis in import prices the beachhead effect this paper shows that temporary real exchange rate fluctuations can have persistent hysteretic effects on trade specifically when market entry costs are sunk sufficiently large exchange rate shocks alter domestic market structure and thereby induce hysteresis this simple result has strong implications for exchange rate theory t rade policy and estimation of trade equations empirical evidence su ggests that the recent dollar overvaluation induced hysteresis in u s import prices namely the aggregate pass through equation of exchange rates to import prices shifted in the 1980s the shift s nature and timing is broadly consistent with the hysteresis hypothesis copyright 1988 by american economic association

invoicing currency in international trade an empirical investigation and some implications for the renminbi to play the role of a unit of account an international currency must be a currency widely used to invoice international trade this paper investigates the determinants of the use of currencies in trade invoicing and evaluates the potential of the renminbi for the denomination of cross border transactions in the asia pacific region in particular we develop a simple model and establish the evidence showing that there is a convex relationship between the invoicing share of a currency and the economic size of its issuing country because of a coalescing effect and thick market externalities we use the ratio of the foreign exchange fx turnover share of a currency to the global gdp share of its issuing country as a proxy for the size of thick market externalities which we argue reflects capital account openness financial development and exchange rate stability of the country this ratio is very small for the renminbi compared with the ratios for established international currencies our quantitative analysis suggests that the renminbi can be a major invoicing currency in the region only if china sufficiently opens up its capital account and liberalises its financial sector we also draw a parallel between the renminbi and the euro and forecast the invoicing share of the renminbi in the asia pacific region if the renminbi market attained the same degree of thickness as the euro

pass through in retail and wholesale this paper studies how prices comove across products firms and locations to gauge the relative importance of retailer versus manufacturer level shocks in determining prices i make use of a large panel data set on prices for a cross section of retailers in the u s i analyze prices at the barcode or universal product code upc level for individual stores i find that only 16 of the variation in prices is common across stores selling an identical product 65 of the price variation is common to stores within a particular retail chain but not across retail chains while 17 is completely idiosyncratic to the store and product product categories with frequent temporary sales exhibit a disproportionate amount of completely idiosyncratic price variation my results suggest that most of the observed price variation arises from retail level rather than manufacturer level demand and supply shocks however the behavior of prices is difficult to relate to observed variation in costs and demand at the retail level this suggests that retail prices may vary largely as a consequence of dynamic pricing strategies on the part of retailers or manufacturers rather than static demand and supply shocks this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

do central banks respond to exchange rate movements some new evidence from structural estimation l auteure etudie l incidence des mouvements du taux de change sur la conduite de la politique monetaire en australie au canada en nouvelle zelande et au royaume uni elle elabore et estime un modele structurel d equilibre general a deux secteurs dans lequel les prix et les salaires sont rigides et les variations du taux de change se repercutent de facon limitee

a cost benefit analysis of hearing aids including the benefits of reducing the symptoms of dementia we carried out a cba of hearing aids has in which we estimated the direct utility benefits and included the indirect utility benefits working through a reduction in dementia symptoms the benefits methodology involved using qalys as the outcome measure and then applying the price of a qaly to convert the outcome measure into monetary terms the price of a qaly was derived from an age specific vsl estimate the effects of has on utility were estimated from a fixed effects regression on a large national panel data set provided by nacc where we used a negative proxy for the qol we also used a fixed effects regression for the estimate of the indirect benefits involving has reducing dementia symptoms we found that the total benefits mainly coming from the direct benefits were extremely large relative to the costs with benefit cost ratios over 30

imported inputs and invoicing currency choice theory and evidence from uk transaction data a significant proportion of international trade is in intermediate goods this paper considers theoretically and empirically how exporters dependence on imported inputs affects their choice of invoicing currency the model predicts that exporters that depend more on foreign currency denominated inputs are less likely to price in their home currency i test this and other theoretical results using a novel dataset that covers uk trade transactions with non eu countries i find considerable support for the model s predictions a 10 percentage point higher share of foreign currency denominated inputs is associated with a 20 percentage point higher probability of pricing in the same foreign currency relative to the producer s currency

five facts about prices a reevaluation of menu cost models are price decreases 3 the frequency of price increases covaries strongly with inflation whereas the frequency of price decreases and the size of price increases and price decreases do not 4 the frequency of price change is highly seasonal it is highest in the first quarter and then declines 5 we find no evidence of upwardsloping hazard functions of price changes for individual products we show that the first second and third facts are consistent with a benchmark menu cost model whereas the fourth and fifth facts are not

border prices and retail prices abstract we analyze retail prices and at the dock import prices of specific items in the bureau of labor statistics bls cpi and ipp databases using both databases simultaneously to identify items that are identical in description at the dock and when sold at retail this identification allows us to measure the distribution wedge associated with bringing traded goods from the point of entry into the united states to their retail outlet we find that overall u s distribution wedges are 50 70 around 10 to 20 percentage points higher than that reported in the literature we discuss the implications of this for measuring the size of the pure tradeables sector exchange rate pass through and real exchange rate determination we find that distribution wedges are very stable over time but there is considerable variation across items there is some variation across the country of origin for the imported item for our major trading partners but not as much as the cross item variation we also investigate the determinants of distribution wedges finding that wedges do not vary systematically with exchange rates but are related to other features of the micro data

speeding coordination and the 55 mph limit do laws coordinate or restrain a number of recent papers discuss the optimality of the 55 mph national maximum speed limit nmsl and evaluate the tradeoff of timelost vs lives saved resulting from the lowered speed james jondrow et al 1983 dana kamerud 1983 thomas forester et al 1984 these papers all implicitly accept the conventional wisdom speed kills slower is safer this conventional wisdom leads to laws designed as limits on behavior whereas the crucial element is often coordination people need to do the right things at the right time in relation to what others are doing thomas schelling 1978 p 121 there are indeed some traffic laws that establish conventions of expected conduct we ask that motorists drive to the right not because driving on the left is evil but because it is important that the direction of flow be commonly agreed upon likewise traffic lights are best viewed as a coordinating device allowing free flow to alternating lanes of traffic to reduce the confusion and loss of time in unsignalized intersections for peculiar historical reasons speed laws evolved as limits on driver behavior rather than as signaling devices meant to coordinate it guided by the limit rationale police concentrate on those drivers who exceed the legal speed and tend to ignore those drivers who disrupt coordination by traveling much slower than the norm this paper tests these differing views of the law by examining the current effects of the 55 mph nmsl should it be viewed as a coordinating mechanism or a limiting mechanism i measure the effects of limit defying behavior speeding and absence of coordination speed variance on the fatality rate based on analysis of 1981 and 1982 state cross section data i find that there is no statistically discernable relationship between the fatality rate and average speed though there is a strong relationship to speed variance when most cars are traveling at about the same speed whether it is a high speed or a low one the fatality rate will be low presumably because the probability of collision will be low variance kills not speed

can international environmental cooperation be bought in this paper a two stage game of international environmental agreement formation with asymmetric countries is analytically solved the equilibrium of the game makes it possible to determine the size and composition of a stable agreement two cases are studied in the first case countries differ only in abatement costs while in the second case they differ in environmental damages in both cases two different institutional settings one without transfers and another with transfers are considered the results establish that the asymmetry assumption has no important effects on the scope of cooperation in comparison with the symmetric case if transfers are not used or abatement costs represent the only difference among countries however when the only difference is in environmental damages the level of cooperation that can be bought through a self financed transfer scheme increases with the degree of asymmetry

pass through of exchange rates and purchasing power parity abstract in this paper we develop and test two hypotheses about purchasing power parity ppp the first is that changes in the price of traded goods relative to domestic substitutes will affect the ppp relation due to the partial pass through of exchange rates the second is that ppp should hold on forward rather than spot exchange rates due to hedging by firms which implies that the interest rate differential should enter the ppp relation for spot rates using quarterly data for several countries we find support for both these hypotheses though the magnitude of the interest rate effect is very small

pricing of exports and exchange rate uncertainty this paper examines the implications of different pricing cum invoicing strategies available to an exporting firm that sells its product in domestic and foreign markets when the exchange rate is uncertain the firms decisions are made sequentially throughout the decision making process the firm receives new information about the distribution of the random exchange rate the information arrives after output decisions have been made but before setting prices and allocating sales the authors state conditions that lead to the dominance of invoicing exports in the importer s currency over the alternative invoicing strategies copyright 1991 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

the evolution of price dispersion in the european car market car prices in europe are characterized by large and persistent differences across countries the purpose of this paper is to document and explain this price dispersion using a panel data set extending from 1980 to 1993 we first demonstrate two main facts concerning car prices in europe i the existence of significant differences in quality adjusted prices across countries with italy and the u k systematically representing the most expensive markets 2 substantial year to year volatility that is to a large extent accounted for by exchange rate fluctuations and the incomplete response of local currency prices to these fluctuations these facts are analysed within the framework of a multiproduct oligopoly model with product differentiation the model identifies three potential sources for the international price differences price elasticities generating differences in markups costs and import quota constraints local currency price stability can be attributed either to the presence of a local component in marginal costs or to markup adjustment that is correlated with exchange rate volatility the latter requires that the perceived elasticity of demand is increasing in price we find that the primary reason for the higher prices in italy is the existence of a strong bias for domestic brancs that generates high markups for the domestic firm fiat in the u k higher prices are mainly attributed to better equipped cars and or differences in the dealer discount practices the import quota constraints are found to have a significant impact on japanese car prices in italy france and the u k with respect to local currency price stability a large percentage of the documented price inertia can be attributed to local costs and a smaller fraction to markup adjustment that is indicative of price discrimination based on these results we conjecture that the emu will substantially reduce the year to year volatility observed in the car price data but without further measures to increase european integration it will not completely eliminate existing cross country price differences

network effects and welfare cultures we empirically examine the role of social networks in welfare participation using data on language spoken at home to better infer networks within an area our empirical strategy asks whether being surrounded by others who speak the same language increases welfare use more for those from high welfare using language groups this methodology allows us to include local area and language group fixed effects and to control for the direct effect of being surrounded by one s language group these controls eliminate many of the problems in previous studies the results strongly confirm the importance of networks in welfare participation

price discrimination and markups in export markets abstract imperfect competition in international markets is one of the key explanations for why prices of similar goods might differ among destination countries this paper develops an empirical model to examine the presence of price discrimination stemming from imperfect competition in the international market for a country s exports the model is used to examine the export behavior of taiwanese exporters of footwear the generalized supply relation allows identification of deviations from competitive pricing in each export market in addition the model provides insights into the extent of exchange rate pass through finally the model is modified in order to estimate the effect of the voluntary export restraint imposed in the u s on footwear imports from taiwan

explaining the exchange rate pass through in different prices abstract this paper examines the performance of a variety of new open economy macroeconomic models in explaining the exchange rate pass through in a wide range of prices quantitative versions of different models are used to derive the dynamic response of various prices to an exchange rate shock predicted responses are compared with the evidence based on var models to examine how well different models fit the data the results show that the best fitting model incorporates a number of features highlighted by different strands of the literature sticky prices sticky wages distribution costs and a combination of local lcp and producer currency pricing pcp

the negative income tax and the evolution of u s welfare policy the negative income tax proposed by milton friedman represents one of the fundamental ideas of modern welfare policy however the academic literature has raised two difficulties with it one challenging its purported work incentives and the other suggesting the possible superiority of work requirements in addition work requirement approaches have gained ground in actual u s welfare policy over the last 30 years and the number of different programs has proliferated another development counter to the negative income tax on the other hand the earned income tax credit has produced a negative income tax like program on a vast scale

exchange rates and traded goods prices abstract this paper presents a partial equilibrium model of the determination of domestic and export prices by a monopolistic competitive firm the model stresses the role of exchange rate uncertainty and expectations the most important result of the analysis is that the stochastic properties of deviations from the law of one price are crucially affected by the currency of denomination of export prices using data on domestic and dollar export prices of japanese goods i find that deviations from the law of one price are due to exchange rate surprises but also to price staggering and ex ante price discrimination

exchange rate pass through when market share matters the authors investigate the pass through from exchange rates to import prices when firms future demands depend on their current market shares they show that profit maximizing foreign firms may either raise or lower their dollar export prices when the dollar appreciates temporarily i e the pass through may be perverse and that current import prices may be more sensitive to expected future exchange rates than to current exchange rates they present evidence that suggests the behavior of expected future exchange rates may provide a clue to the puzzling recent behavior of u s import prices copyright 1989 by american economic association

effects of a mandatory local currency pricing law on the exchange rate pass through abstract this paper discusses whether law 28300 of 2004 that required peruvian firms to express their prices in peru s currency in a context of high price dollarization affected the exchange rate pass through erpt we hypothesize that the enactment of the law introduced menu costs for firms that used to set their prices in dollars prompting several of them to make a permanent switch to pricing in local currency using disaggregated consumer price index cpi data we find that following passage of the law the erpt was completely offset for non durable goods with dollarized prices and partially offset for durable goods with dollarized prices these effects may vary due to differences in imported component shares market power and markup pricing

goods prices and exchange rates what have we learned import prices typically change by a smaller proportion than the exchange rate between the exporting and importing country recent research indicates that common currency relative prices for similar goods exported to different markets are highly correlated with exchange rates between those markets this evidence suggests that incomplete pass through is a consequence of third degree price discrimination while distance matters for market segmentation borders have independent effects the source of the border effect has not been clearly identified furthermore there is little evidence yet to suggest substantial market power is implied by the observed price discrimination

micro macro and strategic forces in international trade invoicing synthesis and novel patterns abstract the currency used in invoicing international trade matters for the impact of exchange rate movements in the presence of price rigidities we present stylized facts on specific macro micro and other drivers of invoicing based on 45 million canadian import transactions four main results emerge first a large share of invoicing takes place in vehicle currencies that are neither the exporters nor the importers second we document a novel link between the size of individual transactions and invoicing both the absolute value of a transaction and its relative size at the industry level matter third the exchange rate plays an important role along three dimensions exchange rate volatility exchange rate regime and currency transaction volumes in foreign exchange markets finally we confirm the role of the market share of an exporting country at the industry level our results identify the most salient patterns in order to guide further developments in theoretical models of invoicing currency choice

import prices and invoice currency evidence from chile abstract we use transaction level customs data to document that a large majority of chilean imports are invoiced in dollars regardless of country of origin and sector we study the implications of this fact for the determination of exchange rate pass through erpt to border prices we find that the special role of the dollar in international trade has real effects but bilateral exchange rates with respect to exporter currencies also matter in the medium term in particular exchange rate fluctuations against the dollar account for most of the erpt in the short run and are still relevant after two years however the cumulative erpt with respect to the exporter country s currency increases with time and after two years accounts for most of the erpt to border prices

the value of a year s general education for reducing the symptoms of dementia we present a method for estimating the benefits of years of education for reducing dementia symptoms based on the cost savings that would accrue from continuing independent living rather than relyi

tax avoidance and the deadweight loss of the income tax traditional analyses of the income tax greatly underestimate deadweight losses by ignoring its effect on forms of compensation and patterns of consumption the full deadweight loss is easily calculated using the compensated elasticity of taxable income to changes in tax rates because leisure excludable income and deductible consumption are a hicksian composite good microeconomic estimates imply a deadweight loss of as much as 30 of revenue or more than ten times harberger s classic 1964 estimate the relative deadweight loss caused by increasing existing tax rates is substantially greater and may exceed 2 per 1 of revenue

pricing to market currency invoicing and exchange rate pass through to producer prices abstract in this paper we examine producer prices to shed light on a number of outstanding issues in the understanding of price adjustment in the face of fluctuating exchange rates first we provide results that link two closely related literatures on firm characteristics and exchange rate pass through and currency of invoicing and pass through we show that there is significant within and across industry heterogeneity in the currency of invoice of exports of canadian goods to the u s and further in the degree of pass through to producer prices next we exploit the fact that we observe firms that sell the same good to both the domestic and export markets often in different currencies to difference out the common marginal cost component of the prices this allows us to relate markups to exchange rate movements and we find evidence that pricing to market is most prominent when firms are setting export prices in u s dollars

international dimensions of optimal monetary policy abstract this paper provides a baseline general equilibrium model of optimal monetary policy among interdependent economies with monopolistic firms and nominal rigidities an inward looking policy of domestic price stabilization is not optimal when firms markups are exposed to currency fluctuations such a policy raises exchange rate volatility leading foreign exporters to charge higher prices vis a vis increased uncertainty in the export market as higher import prices reduce the purchasing power of domestic consumers optimal monetary rules trade off a larger domestic output gap against lower consumer prices optimal rules in a world nash equilibrium lead to less exchange rate volatility relative to both inward looking rules and discretionary policies even when the latter do not suffer from any inflationary or deflationary bias gains from international monetary cooperation are related in a non monotonic way to the degree of exchange rate pass through

does exchange rate stability increase trade and welfare we develop a simple general equilibrium framework to study the effect of the exchange rate system on trade and welfare an important feature of the model is deviations from purchasing power parity caused by rigid price setting in buyers currency we find the following first exchange rate stability is not necessarily associated with more trade in a simple benchmark model with separable preferences and only monetary shocks trade is unaffected by the exchange rate system consistent with most evidence second both trade and welfare can be higher under either exchange rate system depending on preferences and on the monetary policy rules followed under each system finally in general there is no one to one relationship between the levels of trade and welfare across exchange rate systems

accounting for incomplete pass through recent theoretical work has suggested a number of potentially important factors in causing incomplete pass through of exchange rates to prices including markup adjustment local costs and barriers to price adjustment we empirically analyze the determinants of incomplete passthrough in the coee industry the observed pass through in this industry replicates key features of pass through documented in aggregate data prices respond sluggishly and incompletely to changes in costs we use microdata on sales and prices to uncover the role of markup adjustment local costs and barriers to price adjustment in determining incomplete pass through using a structural oligopoly model that nests all three potential factors the implied pricing model explains the main dynamic features of short and long run pass through local costs reduce long run pass through by a factor of 59 relative to a ces benchmark markup adjustment reduces pass through by an additional factor of 33 where the extent of markup adjustment depends on the estimated super elasticity of demand the estimated menu costs are small 0 23 of revenue and have a negligible eect on long run pass through but are quantitatively successful in explaining the delayed response of prices to costs we nd that delayed passthrough in the coee industry occurs almost entirely at the wholesale rather than the retail level

market structure and cost pass through in retail abstract we examine the extent to which vertical and horizontal market structure can together explain incomplete retail pass through to answer this question we use scanner data from a large u s retailer to estimate product level pass through for three vertical structures national brands private label goods not manufactured by the retailer and private label goods manufactured by the retailer our approach circumvents issues associated with internal firm prices and demonstrates that accounting for horizontal market structure is important for measuring the effects of vertical integration and reduced double marginalization on pass through

statutes versus enforcement the case of the optimal speed limit an important literature has evolved which considers the optimal tradeoff between the probability and magnitude of fines see gary s becker 1968 a mitchell polinsky and steven shavell 1979 the conclusion of this literature is that under risk neutrality efficiency dictates that the probability of catching an individual engaging in an externality generating activity should be set as low as possible while the fine should be as high as possible limited only by the wealth of the perpetrator similar considerations apply to the setting of statutes versus enforcement activity although we shall return to caveats to this approach in concluding remarks there have been occasional cases where at least implicit tradeoffs apparently have been made such as the 1 000 fines for littering recently raised from 500 in many states though scarcely ever enforced such cases are however usually consigned to activities generating externalities that are difficult or impossible to effectively enforce in any event in the more general case those setting standards seldom consider enforcement efforts perhaps tacitly assuming full compliance we consider here some implications of the separation of statute setting and enforcement efforts for the topical issue of establishing highway speed limits in section i while more general social implications close the paper in section ii i statutes enforcement effort and average speed

in which currency should exporters set their prices this paper studies the choice of price setting currency for an exporter faced with the choice of setting price in his own in the importers or a third currency under exchange rate uncertainty we establish that sufficient conditions on demand and cost functions for exchange rate pass through to be less than unity under certainty are also sufficient conditions for price setting in the importer s currency to yield the highest expected profit under exchange rate uncertainty under the same conditions on demand and cost functions setting price in the importer s currency maximizes expected utility when risk aversion and forward currency markets are introduced

homo moralis preference evolution under incomplete information and assortative matching what preferences will prevail in a society of rational individuals when preference evolution is driven by the resulting payoffs we show that when individuals preferences are their private information a convex combination of selfishness and morality stands out as evolutionarily stable we call individuals with such preferences homo moralis a t one end of the spectrum is homo oeconomicus who acts so as to maximize his or her own payoff at the opposite end is homo kantiensis who does what would be the right thing to do in terms of payoffs if all others would do likewise we show that the stable degree of morality the weight placed on the moral goal is determined by the degree of assortativity in the process whereby individuals are matched to interact

a structural approach to explaining incomplete exchange rate pass through and pricing to market the continuing depreciation of the dollar against other major currencies coupled with concerns about the impact of china s exchangerate policy on domestic prices has spurred new interest in the exchange rate pass through literature a recent study by economists at the federal reserve board of governors see mario marazzi et al 2005 attracted wide attention by documenting a steady decline over the past decade in the pass through of exchange rates into us import prices this finding was later challenged by a study published by the federal reserve bank of new york hellerstein deirdre daly and christina marsh 2006 which demonstrated that the finding of such a decline depends crucially on the specification of the pass through regression and in particular the inclusion of commodity prices this exchange highlights the need to understand the structural determinants of exchange rate pass through not only because such understanding is important when trying to forecast future pass through patterns but also because it provides guidance regarding the specification of the appropriate reduced form regression and more generally measurement of pass through the increased availability of micro data on prices and quantities means that research uncovering these determinants is more promising than sources of international price stickiness

accounting for u s real exchange rate changes this study measures the proportion of u s real exchange rate movements that can be accounted for by movements in the relative prices of nontraded goods the decomposition is done at all possible h

early and late human capital investments borrowing constraints and the family we develop a dynastic human capital investment framework to study the importance of family borrowing constraints and uninsured labor market risk as well as the process of intergenerational ability

frequency of price adjustment and pass through we empirically document using u s import prices that on average goods with a high frequency of price adjustment have a long run pass through that is at least twice as high as that of low frequency adjusters we show theoretically that this relationship should follow because variable mark ups that reduce long run pass through also reduces the curvature of the proflt function when expressed as a function of the cost shocks making the flrm less willing to adjust its price lastly we quantitatively evaluate a dynamic menu cost model and show that the variable mark up channel can generate signiflcant variation in frequency equivalent to 37 of the observed variation in the data on the other hand the standard workhorse model with constant elasticity of demand and calvo or state dependent pricing has di culty matching the facts

a cost benefit analysis of the 55 mph speed limit this article presents the results of an empirical study which estimates the number of reduced fatalities as a result of the imposed 55 mph speed limit time series data for the us from 1952 to 1979 is employed in a regression model capturing the relation between fatalities average speed variability of speed and the speed limit also discussed are the alternative approaches to valuing human life and the value of time provided is a series of benefit cost ratios based on alternative measures of the benefits and costs from life saving the paper concludes that the 55 mph speed limit is not cost efficient unless additional time on the highway is valued significantly below levels estimated in the best reasearch on the value of time 12 references 1 table

analysis on the determinants of currency invoicing in korean trade we investigate the determinants of currency invoicing in trade using import and export transactions data between korea and its 30 major trading partners from 2000 to 2013 we find a noticeably different pattern of currency invoicing from advanced countries for example a large market share of korean exporters in partner countries does not guarantee more use of the korean won in currency invoicing this might be attributed to a low degree of korean won s internationalisation and the strong coalescing effect we also observe that the higher the level of industry product differentiation the weaker the coalescing motive in addition we verify that the share of invoicing in the currency of korea s trading partner tends to be higher when the partner country has i a larger trade volume ii higher level of financial development iii lower inflation and lower price volatility and iv its own currency with lower transaction costs

equivalence results for optimal pass through optimal indexing to exchange rates and optimal choice of currency for export pricing firms sometimes write price lists or catalogs for their exports so they set prices for a period of time and do not adjust prices during that interval in response to changes in their environment the firm sets the price either in its own currency or the importer s currency this paper draws a simple link between the choice of currency and the pricing decision of a firm that changes prices in response to all shocks specifically if the latter firm s price has a lower variance in terms of its own currency than the importer s currency then the firm with a price list will set the price in its own currency and otherwise it will set price in the foreign currency this relationship is established by consideration of the firm with a price list as a special case of a firm that indexes its export price to the exchange rate jel f4 f1