political cycles and economic performance in oecd countries empirical evidence from 1951 2006 this paper examines whether electoral motives and government ideology influence short term economic performance i employ data on annual gdp growth in 21 oecd countries over the 1951 2006 period and provide a battery of empirical tests in countries with two party systems gdp growth is boosted before elections and under leftwing governments in the first two years of a legislative period these findings indicate that political cycles are more prevalent in two party systems because voters can clearly punish or reward political parties for governmental performance my findings imply that we need more elaborate theories of how government ideology and electoral motives influence short term economic performance

estimation of a taiwan monetary reaction function with time varying parameters this paper employs a nonlinear kalman filter to examine the time varying responses of taiwan s monetary policy in the presence of a limited dependent variable the kalman filtered parameters reveal that the responses are not constant but change over time furthermore a counter cyclical reaction function is identified and a stronger than usual discretionary policy during the recessions is found

money growth output gaps and inflation at low and high frequency spectral estimates for switzerland abstract while central banks generally have abandoned monetary targeting many continue to attach weight to monetary aggregates in setting policy this raises the issue of how money can be combined with other variables when analysing inflation we decompose inflation in switzerland into two frequency bands and show that inflation is granger caused by monetary factors at low frequencies defined as those corresponding to periodicities of more than 4 years but is granger caused by the output gap at high frequencies we also estimate phillips curve models that are augmented by the low frequency components of the monetary factors

testing the liquidity effect with equilibrium interest rate we examine the existence of liquidity effects by using the equilibrium interest rates estimated from the disequilibrium analysis instead of the observed interest rate the use of equilibrium interest rates allows us to take the growth rate in the money supply as being exogenous and circumvent the identification problem away following the traditional ar model and the method proposed by hamilton 1997 we obtain evidences showing the negative relationship between the equilibrium interest rate and the growth rate in money supply

reemployment probabilities and returns to matching the assumption of constant returns in the matching function embodied in most bilateral search models is crucial to ensure the uniqueness of the unemployment rate along a steady state growth path this article explores the empirical viability of this assumption by estimating individual reemployment probabilities on a sample of unemployment entrants i apply hazard models to survey data on both completed and uncompleted unemployment durations the hypothesis of constant returns to matching is not rejected on the basis of the evidence that the job finding hazard depends only on local labor market tightness and is independent of its size

banking activities and local output growth does distance from centre matter ozyildirim s and onder z banking activities and local output growth does distance from centre matter regional studies in this paper the relation between local banking activities and local output growth is empirically studied in turkey during the period 1991 2000 although there is no legal restriction against regional banking the banking sector is spatially concentrated in turkey in this institutional structure the distance between headquarters and the local branches is argued to affect the role of financial intermediation in the development of provincial prosperity empirical findings suggest that banking activities have a significant positive impact on the per capita local output growth of regions especially on those that are distant from the financial centre however when bank loans are adjusted to the size of the local economy provincial gross domestic product gdp the relation between banking activities and the output per capita is found to be negative suggesting that these loans are us

discrimination in an equilibrium search model i construct an equilibrium search model where some employers have a distaste for hiring minority workers and show that this bias results in economic discrimination against minority workers although only unprejudiced firms hire minority workers minority workers receive lower wages than workers not facing discrimination whenever any employers in the market have a distaste for minority workers one implication of the model is that gender or racial wage differentials understate the utility loss from discrimination in addition the wages of minority workers increase when their proportion increases in the labor market

the identification of monetary policy disturbances explaining the liquidity puzzle abstract this paper examines recent work on the identification of monetary policy disturbances its main finding is that the empirical anomalies found in the literature reflect a failure to properly address the federal reserve s policy of accommodating reserve demand shocks a new method of identifying monetary policy using nonborrowed reserves is proposed using this specification policy has a strong persistent liquidity effect regardless of subsample policy granger causes output even in the presence of interest rates explaining approximately 49 of the variance in output at a two year horizon and the residual explanatory power of interest rates for output is negligible

urban development in the united states 1690 1990 the united states transformed itself from a rural to an urban society over the last three cen turies after a century of unremarkable growth the pace of urbanization was historically un precedented between the nineteenth and the early twentieth centuries in the twentieth century the urban population continued to increase but in a much more dispersed manner as the sub urban population increased throughout these developments cities also exhibited considerable variation in their population sizes this paper finds that the pace and pattern of u s urban development are explained by changes in regional comparative advantage and in economies in transportation and local public goods which in turn were determined by the changes in the economic structures of cities this paper also finds that cities varied considerably in size because the larger cities reduced market transaction costs associated with coordinating greater geograph ic division of labor

on the political economy of national tax revenue forecasts evidence from oecd countries sustainable budgets are important quality signals for the electorate politicians might thus have an incentive to influence tax revenue forecasts which are widely regarded as a key element of national budget plans looking at the time period from 1996 to 2012 we systematically analyze whether national tax revenue forecasts in 18 oecd countries are biased due to political manipulation drawing on theories from the field of political economy we test three hypotheses using panel estimation techniques we find support for partisan politics left wing governments seem to produce more optimistic or less pessimistic tax revenue forecasts than do right wing ones contrary to the theoretical prediction based on the common pool problem we find that more fragmented governments and parliaments tend to produce more pessimistic or less optimistic tax revenue forecasts we find no empirical evidence that political business cycles play a role in tax revenue forecasts

does the federal reserve affect asset prices abstract the federal reserve is probably one of the institutions most closely monitored by investors this indicates that investors believe the actions of the fed have implications for asset prices to this date the trading activities of the fed in the financial markets have not been examined to see how the fed influences asset prices using daily data on open market operations omos and asset prices this study fills this void one finding of the paper is that omos granger cause both short and long term interest rates furthermore the sign of the relationship confirms the existence of the liquidity effect given that its trades represent a small portion of the market volume how the fed influences bond prices is a puzzle the only reasonable explanation is that the fed s trades have high information content judging by the impulse response paths the reaction of interest rates to open market operations is fast additionally it appears that monetary policy has a lasting impact on interest rates

search sorting and urban agglomeration studies have suggested that urban agglomeration enhances productivity by facilitating the firm worker matching process this article develops a model that formalizes this notion and demonstrates that when firm capital and worker skill are complementary in production urban agglomeration will tend to generate more efficient yet segregated matches as a result not only will local market size be positively associated with average productivity it will also generate greater between skill group wage inequality and a higher expected return to skill acquisition recent data from the counties and metropolitan areas of the united states is consistent with each of these implications

rethinking the liquidity puzzle application of a new measure of the economic money stock historically attempts to solve the liquidity puzzle have focused on narrowly defined monetary aggregates such as non borrowed reserves the monetary base or m1 many of these efforts have failed to find a short term negative correlation between interest rates and monetary policy innovations more recent research uses sophisticated macroeconomic and econometric modeling however little research has investigated the role measurement error plays in the liquidity puzzle since in nearly every case work investigating the liquidity puzzle has used one of the official monetary aggregates which have been shown to exhibit significant measurement error this paper examines the role that measurement error plays in the liquidity puzzle by i providing a theoretical framework explaining how the official simple sum methodology can lead to a liquidity puzzle and ii testing for the liquidity effect by estimating an unrestricted var

cities matching and the productivity gains of agglomeration abstract the striking geographical concentration of economic activities suggests that there are substantial benefits to agglomeration however the nature of those benefits remains unclear in this paper we take advantage of a new data set to quantify the role of one of the main contenders the matching of workers and jobs we show that thicker urban labor markets are associated with more assortative matching in terms of worker and firm quality when we estimate establishment level production functions we also find evidence of complementarities between worker and firm quality putting together the production and matching relationships we show that production complementarity and assortative matching is an important source of the urban productivity premium

the vanishing liquidity effect of money on interest analysis and implications for policy this paper seeks to re examine the effects of money on interest rates the earlier literature on this topic determined fairly well the pattern of response of interest rates to changes in money growth the notable studies of cagan 1972 cagan and gandolfi 1969 and gibson 1970 served to establish the professions stylized pattern as presented in section i section ii presents new evidence on the subject and finds that the old empirical generalizations no longer hold specifically the results suggest that the initial liquidity effect of faster money growth is likely to be offset within the month following the monetary policy change sections iii and iv investigate the reasons for the changing pattern of monetary effects on interest rates and discuss the policy implications of the new pattern

federal reserve operating procedures a survey and evaluation of the historical record since october 1979 comment william poole has produced another thoughtful and thought provoking paper two major conclusions emerge from his work first the instability of growth in m1b since october 1979 can be attributed largely to a reluctance by the federal reserve to permit wide enough swings in the federal funds rate second to correct this problem and to promote greater stability in financial markets and the economy the fed ought to replace lagged with contemporaneous reserve accounting and reform the discount window they should then begin to hit a nonborrowed base or reserves target that grows at a steady rate i will organize my comments around these two conclusions i will not comment directly on the other excellent paper in this session by ralph c bryant i will refer to some of bryant s empirical work though in my discussion of the poole paper poole attributes the continued extensive volatility of m1b growth since october 1979 to efforts by the federal reserve to smooth interest rates he concedes that the fed really has let go the federal funds rate to a very considerable extent but he believes that variability in m1b growth over tonger periods is due primarily to the important role accorded interest rates in federal reserve policy making italics mine he cites four reasons for believing that the post october 1979 targeting procedures qualitatively are not very different from the federal funds targeting procedure followed earlier of the four the most interesting and empirically verifiable is that in nearly one third of the weeks since october 1979 the federal funds rate has averaged within 100 basis points of either the bottom or the top of the widened target range during these weeks the constraint on the funds rate might have prevented the fed from hitting its nonborrowed reserves target poole in fact accepts this view uncritically

cash setting the call loan rate and the liquidity effect in canada in this paper we use the vector autoregression method to examine the effects of monetary policy in canada including in particular the empirical evidence of the liquidity effect we use the excess cash reserves of the chartered banks and the surprise component of excess cash reserves as measures of liquidity shocks to monetary policy are measured by the orthogonalized innovations to the liquidity variables and by the orthogonalized innovations to the call loan rate we find that the effects of these shocks conform to monetary policy shocks and the results support the presence of the liquidity effect in canada

scale effects in markets with search estimates of aggregate matching functions may miss important scale effects in frictional labour markets because of the reactions of job seekers to scale we estimate a semi structural model of search and matching on a british sample of unemployed people testing for scale effects on the probability of receiving an offer and on the distribution of wage offers we find them only in wage offers but we also find that reservation wages rise to deliver higher post unemployment wages but not faster matches so aggregate matching functions should be unaffected by scale but wage equations should be showing them

rural to urban migration human capital and agglomeration a new general equilibrium model that links together rural to urban migration the externality effect of the average level of human capital and agglomeration economies shows that in developing countries unrestricted rural to urban migration reduces the average income of both rural and urban dwellers in equilibrium various measures aimed at curtailing rural to urban migration by unskilled workers can lead to a pareto improvement for both the urban and rural dwellers in addition the government can raise social welfare by reducing the migration of skilled workers to the city moreover without a restriction on rural to urban migration a government s efforts to increase educational expenditure and thereby the number of skilled workers may not increase wage rates in the rural or urban areas

stabilizing monetary injection policies abstract the primary concern of this paper is understanding how prices and interest rates respond to open market operations in a model economy developed by grossman and weiss but with more general utility functions we establish global existence of equilibrium paths and observe that prices and interest rates rise initially but thereafter oscillate around a new steady state also investigated are optimal monetary policies wherein injections take place in more than one time period and corresponding to which the equilibrium prices are most stable existence of such policies is established by mathematical analysis and its detailed structure explored by numerical simulation journal of economic literature classification numbers e50 e52

forecasting efficiency concepts and applications this article introduces the concept of forecast efficiency in which the forecast contains all information available at the time of the forecast empirical tests investigate weak efficiency where the information set is all past forecasts and where all forecast revisions and errors should be uncorrelated with past forecast revisions tests of macroeconomic energy consumption and oil price forecasts find a significant autocorrelation of forecast revisions with fifty of fifty one tests showing positive correlation of forecast revisions as opposed to zero correlation consistent with forecast efficiency copyright 1987 by mit press

a model of competition between unemployed and employed job searchers an application to the unemployment outflow rate in britain this paper proposes a model to explain the allocation of new jobs to workers the central innovation is the analysis of the competition for jobs between employed and unemployed job searchers it is argued that the endogeneity of the fraction of the employed engaging in search is a crucial determinant of the unemployment outflow rate the model is applied to the unemployment outflow rate in britain the model fits the data well and encompasses its main rival copyright 1993 by royal economic society

unemployment and nonemployment heterogeneities in labor market states abstract the determination of how to distinguish between unemployment and nonparticipation is important and controversial the conventional approach employs a priori reasoning together with self reported current behavior this paper employs an evidence based classification of labor force status using information about the consequences of the behavior of the nonemployed we find that marginal attachment defined as desiring work although not searching is a distinct labor market state lying between those who do not desire work and the unemployed furthermore important heterogeneities exist within these nonemployment states two subsets of nonparticipants both engaged in waiting display behavior similar to the unemployed

on low frequency estimates of long run relationships in macroeconomics abstract a number of recent studies have attempted to test propositions concerning long run economic relationships by means of frequency domain time series techniques that concentrate attention on low frequency comovements of variables the present paper emphasizes that many of these propositions involve expectational relationships that are not inherently related to specific frequencies or periodicities thus the association of low frequency time series test statistics with long run economic propositions is not generally warranted that such an association can be misleading is demonstrated by analysis of examples taken from notable papers by geweke lucas and summers

dynamic revenue estimation this paper considers the question of adopting dynamic revenue estimation methods which would incorporate the predicted macroeconomic effects of policies it describes the current revenue estimation process and how these estimates are used in the formation of policy it then evaluates this process as an exercise in forecasting considering not only its methodology but also its performance this evaluation illustrates some of the difficulties that would accompany attempts to use dynamic methods finally the paper relates the choice among different revenue estimation procedures to the political process and the use to which the revenue estimates are put

searching for political business cycles in germany one reslt of the revitalised literature on political business cycles is that there are signs in german data that elections and ideology have an impact however using monthly data for the period 1950 1989 and standard methods of time series analysis we reject both the nordhaus hypothesis of opportunistic cycles and the partisan approaches by hibbs ans alesina we show that some results are sensitive to the assumption of stationarity there are signs of policy cycles in m1 it is hard though to bring this in line with the rogoff hypothesis of rational opportunistic cycles because of the german institutional setting

does the ilo definition capture all unemployment the labour market status of many non working persons is at the boundary between unemployment and inactivity like the unemployed they seek and are available for work unlike them their last search action was not recent enough to meet the ilo definition of unemployment in this paper we examine by non parametric tests how the transition probabilities of these out of the labour force job seekers differ from those of the unemployed as well as the other non participants first using data from the european community household panel we show that in most eu countries these job seekers constitute a distinct labour market state second we rely on information only available in the italian labour force survey to derive a measure of search intensity which we use to break down the out of the labour force job seekers on the basis of their transition probabilities the most active are indistinguishable from the unemployed

spatial evolution of population and industry in the united states what features characterize the evolution of the u s urban system in this past century to what extent has the 500 percent increase in national urban population during 1900 1990 been accommodated by growth in numbers versus sizes of cities given the radical changes in the u s economic geography has the relative size distribution of city sizes changed significantly with say strong increases in urban concentration and primacy a popular notion as urbanization slowed after world war ii did fluctuations in city sizes and upward downward mobility of cities dampen as an arthur scale economy framework would predict brian arthur 1990 finally what natural geographic features of a city promote growth how important are climate location neighbor cities and the like an interrelated set of questions concerns the agglomeration and mobility of industrial activity within the set of cities are industries that are subject to greater scale economies both more agglomerated and less mobile for industries that are not subject to scale economies why does agglomeration occur central to answering these questions is measuring the nature and extent of scale economies this paper reports results on these two sets of issues using population census data for 1900 1990 and manufacturers census data for 1963 1992 for a selection of machinery and high tech industries

bias in omb s economic forecasts and budget proposals the office of management and budget omb annually submits the president s budget for the u s government to the congress the economic forecasts and revenue and outlay proposals contained in the budget have been criticized as biased especially during the 1980s tests for bias in one year ahead proposals for the 1963 89 period show no bias in economic forecasts and revenue estimates but substantial bias in outlay proposals most outlay proposals are consistently less than actual outcomes accounting for underprediction of the federal deficit omb outlay proposals appear to be influenced by politics republican administrations show more significant proposal biases with defense proposals higher and domestic outlay proposals lower than outcomes the office of management and budget consistently understates the deficits by resorting to the most optimistic economic assumptions it can credibly and now sometimes even incredibly employ senator james sasserwall street journal 25 january 1990

changes at the top a cross country examination over the 20th century of the rise and fall in rank of the top cities in national urban hierarchies the paper documents the evolution of rank orders for cities at the top of national urban hierarchies top 10 cities where possible ranks for the year 2000 are compared with 1950 for 74 nations and with 1900 for 52 nations covering 375 and 288 cities respectively rank correlations with the year 2000 are calculated for both years the rank order of cities in europe shows significantly less variation over time than those for the new world and developing nations consistent with the view that urban hierarchies harden as they mature changes in rank at the very top rank 1 are rare where they occur such changes can often be traced to political events that alter the direction of trade or the city s role as central place the results provide evidence both for and against locational fundamentals and cumulative causation arguments the entrenched advantages of the first big cities to emerge are undeniable but fundamentals can be undermined by political events and by technological change

planning to cheat eu fiscal policy in real time using real time data from europe s stability and convergence programs we explore how fiscal plans and their implementation in the eu are determined we find that 1 implemented budgetary adjustment falls systematically short of planned adjustment and this shortfall increases with the projection horizon 2 variability in the eventual fiscal outcomes is dominated by the implementation errors 3 there is a limited role for traditional political variables 4 stock flow adjustments are more important when plans are more ambitious and 5 most importantly both the ambition in fiscal plans and their implementation benefit from stronger national fiscal institutions we emphasize also the importance of credible plans for the eventual fiscal outcomes roel beetsma massimo giuliodori and peter wierts

monetary policy and long term interest rates an efficient markets approach abstract this paper is an application of efficient markets theory to analyze empirically the relationship of money supply growth and long term interest rates this approach has the advantage over calier research on this subject in that it imposes a theoretical structure on this relationship that flows easier interpretation of the empirical results as well as more powerful statistical tests on the interest of ascertaining the robustness of the results many different empirical tests are carried out in this paper and they uniformly do not support the preposition that increases in the money supply are correlated with declines in long rates

job information networks neighborhood effects and inequality this paper explores the theoretical and empirical literature to examine the use by different social groups of informal sources of information provided by friends relatives and acquaintances during job search and its consequences for the job market it also addresses the role of network structure and size the resource endowments of contacts and nature of the links between contacts to explain differences in the effects of job information networks in doing so the paper also turns to the sociology literature on job information networks and provides an economic perspective on such sociological concepts as strong versus weak ties inbreeding distance from structural holes etc the paper distinguishes between models of exogenous job information networks that is where individuals obtain job related information through a given social structure and endogenous job information networks which are social networks that result from individuals uncoordinated actions the paper pays special attention to such issues as physical and social proximity and sharing of information and discusses them in the context of the recent social interactions and neighborhood effects literature finally the paper outlines a model that integrates job information networks where interactions occur in business cycle frequencies with the dynamics of human capital formation which include the joint effects of parental community and neighborhood human capital and are set in life cycle frequencies for the purpose of organizing suggestions for future research and examining earned income inequality

money creation and the shadow banking system many explanations for the rapid growth of the shadow banking system in the mid2000s focus on money demand this paper asks whether the short term liabilities of the shadow banking system behave like money we rst present a simple model where households demand money services which are supplied by three types of claims deposits treasury bills and asset backed commercial paper abcp the model provides predictions for the price and quantity dynamics of these claims as well as the behavior of the banking system in terms of issuance and the monetary authority in terms of open market operations consistent with the model the empirical evidence suggests that the shadow banking system does respond to money demand

banks regional development disparity and growth evidence from turkey in this paper we analyse the impact of credits provided by banks on provincial growth in turkey where state owned banks have an implicit role of reducing disparity by allocating loans in underdeveloped regions that are ignored by private banks we find a paradoxical effect of state owned banks on regional development their credits contribute significantly to the growth of more developed provinces whereas they fail to encourage the well being of less developed provinces on the other hand credits provided by private banks in general positively impact the per capita real gross domestic product gdp in both developed and less developed provinces contrary to their purpose of existence our results suggest that state owned banks did not reduce economic disparity among turkish provinces in the trade off between growth and income disparity our results suggest that state owned banks should improve their lending behaviour especially in the less developed regions in order to broaden their development role to the whole economy copyright the author 2009 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

does city structure affect job search and welfare we develop a model in which workers search efficiency is negatively affected by access to jobs workers location in a city is endogenous and reflects a trade off between commuting costs and the surplus associated with search different configurations emerge in equilibrium notably the unemployed workers may reside far away segregated city or close to jobs integrated city we prove that there exists a unique and stable market equilibrium in which both land and labor markets are solved for simultaneously we find that despite inefficient search in the segregated city equilibrium the welfare difference between the two equilibria is not so large due to differences in commuting costs we also show how a social planner can manipulate wages by subsidizing taxing the transport costs and can accordingly restore the efficiency

over optimism in forecasts by official budget agencies and its implications the paper studies forecasts of real growth rates and budget balances made by official government agencies among 33 countries in general the forecasts are found i to have a positive average bias ii to be more biased in booms and iii to be even more biased at the 3 year horizon than at shorter horizons this over optimism in official forecasts can help explain excessive budget deficits especially the failure to run surpluses during periods of high output if a boom is forecasted to last indefinitely retrenchment is treated as unnecessary many believe that better fiscal policy can be obtained by means of rules such as ceilings for the deficit or better yet the structural deficit but we also find iv countries subject to a budget rule in the form of euroland s stability and growth pact sgp make official forecasts of growth and budget deficits that are even more biased and more correlated with booms than do other countries this effect may help explain frequent violations of the sgp the question becomes how to overcome governments tendency to satisfy fiscal targets by wishful thinking rather than by action chile in 2000 created structural budget institutions that may have solved the problem independent expert panels insulated from political pressures are responsible for estimating the long run trends that determine whether a given deficit is deemed structural or cyclical the result is that chile s official forecasts of growth and the budget have not been overly optimistic even in booms unlike many countries in the north chile took advantage of the 2002 7 expansion to run budget surpluses and so was able to ease in the 2008 9 recession

selection on observed and unobserved variables assessing the effectiveness of catholic schools in this paper we measure the effect of catholic high school attendance on educational attainment and test scores because we do not have a good instrumental variable for catholic school attendance we develop new estimation methods based on the idea that the amount of selection on the observed explanatory variables in a model provides a guide to the amount of selection on the unobservables we also propose an informal way to assess selectivity bias based on measuring the ratio of selection on unobservables to selection on observables that would be required if one is to attribute the entire effect of catholic school attendance to selection bias we use our methods to estimate the effect of attending a catholic high school on a variety of outcomes our main conclusion is that catholic high schools substantially increase the probability of graduating from high school and more tentatively attending college we find little evidence of an effect on test scores

the permanent effects of transportation revolutions in poor countries evidence from africa we exploit the construction and eventual demise of the colonial railroads in africa to study the impact of transportation investments in poor countries using ghana and sub saharan africa as a whole we assembled new data on railroads and cities spanning over one century to show that i railroads had large effects on the spatial distribution and aggregate level of economic activity during the colonial period as they constituted a transportation revolution in a context where no modern transportation technology previously existed ii these effects have persisted to date although railroads collapsed and road networks expanded considerably in the post independence period the analysis contributes to our understanding of the heterogeneous impact of transportation investments it shows that initial investments may have a large effect in poor countries with basic infrastructure as the countries develop increasing returns may then solidify their spatial distribution and subsequent investments may have a smaller effect on local economic development

wages rents and the quality of life this study focuses on the role of wages and rents in allocating workers to locations with various quantities of amenities the theory demonstrates that if the amenity is also productive then the sign of the wage gradient is unclear while the rent gradient is positive the theory is extended to include the housing market and nontraded goods these extensions require little modification of the conclusion the empirical work on wages shows that the regional wage differences can be explained largely by these local attributes with the use of site price data implicit prices are estimated and quality of life rankings for the cities are computed

in search of the liquidity effect abstract a short run negative relationship between monetary aggregates and interest rates the liquidity effect is central to discussions of monetary policy this paper searches for this empirical relationship we investigate whether the characterization of the liquidity effect is sensitive to i changes in sample period ii conditioning the correlations on past information iii assuming money growth is exogenous and iv treating monetary changes as anticipated or unanticipated the correlations change substantially in each case we conclude that the traditional analysis and modern models which rely completely on demand side behavior cannot explain the observed correlations a successful characterization of the liquidity effect requires identification of both private and policy behavior

job search in thick markets abstract i analyze empirically the effects of urban and industrial agglomeration on both search behavior and the efficiency of matching the analysis is based on a unique panel data set from the italian labor force survey micro data covering 520 randomly drawn local labor market areas 66 of the total over the four quarters of 2002 i compute transition probabilities from non employment to employment by jointly estimating the probability of searching and the probability of finding a job conditional on having searched i then test whether these are affected by market size industrial variety and or industry specialization the main results indicate that market size and industry specialization raise job seekers chances of finding employment conditional on having searched while industrial variety is not significantly different from zero finally the effect of agglomeration on non employed individuals search behavior cannot be significantly distinguished from zero

independent fiscal agencies abstract there has been a considerable literature regarding the incentives of policymakers as a prime reason for persistent fiscal deficits and a variety of fiscal rules have been proposed as a remedy however the often inadequate flexibility of rules and the success of policy delegation in the monetary realm have motivated a small but growing number of studies that suggest delegating some aspects of fiscal policy to what will here be called independent fiscal agencies this paper surveys the related literature with a focus on three aspects the motivation for the establishment of such agencies their potential design and the experience with these types of institutions

testing the rationality of state revenue forecasts recent revenue shortfalls in several states focus attention on the question of whether states do a good job of forecasting revenues in modem economics forecasts are eval uated on the basis of whether or not they are rational do the forecasts optimally incorporate all available information this paper develops a method for testing the rationality of state revenue forecasts and applies it to the analysis of data from new jersey massachusetts and maryland one of our main findings is that in all three states the forecasts of own revenues are systematically biased downward tn 1985 the 50 states raised 349 billion in revenues from their own sources and received 84 billion in grants from the federal government u s bureau of the census 1987 p 266 state governments are clearly important players in the u s system of public finance and the efficiency with which they conduct their financial affairs has an important impact on consumer welfare one important determinant of a state s ability to con duct reasonable fiscal policies is the quality of its revenue forecasts sensible deliberations about ex penditures cannot be made in the absence of good forecasts indeed in the presence of con stitutional or statutory provisions for balanced budgets unanticipated changes in revenues can wreak havoc not only on proposals that are sched uled for funding but on plans that have already been put into effect as well in recent months two powerful governors michael dukakis of massachusetts and mario cuomo of new york have suffered major politi cal embarrassments because actual revenues fell substantially short of the predictions in their re spective states such episodes focus attention on the question of whether states do a good job of forecasting revenues in modem economics fore casts are evaluated on the basis of whether or not they are rational do the forecasts optimally incorporate all information that is available at the time they are made although there is a large literature on state revenue forecasting methods that literature focuses mostly on state budgetary institutions forecasts themselves are evaluated only in an informal fashion 1 although the theory and econometric methods of rational expectations have been used to evaluate forecasts made by households and businesses 2 these powerful tools have not been applied to state government fore casts this paper applies these methods to the problem of state revenue forecasting and as an example uses them to analyze data from new jersey massachusetts and maryland the results cast light not only on the question of rationality per se but on issues such as the impact of political factors on forecasts section ii presents the conceptual framework for testing rational expectations the relevant in stitutional issues and data are described in section iii the results are discussed in section iv we find that in all three states forecasts of own rev enues are systematically biased downward section v concludes with a summary

the effect of money shocks on interest rates in the presence of conditional heteroskedasticity most current empirical work finds no evidence that money shocks lower interest rates we show that these nonresults are mainly due to a failure to model the conditional heteroskedasticity of interest rates autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity arch models find a significant liquidity effect where ordinary least squares ols models do not the existence of a liquidity effect is found using different models and sample periods when arch models are used in estimation but never when ols is employed

has the effect of money shocks on interest rates really vanished further evidence of the liquidity effect the liquidity effect of money shocks on the short term interest rate has been an integral part of traditional macroeconomic policies and has witnessed renewed interest in recent years the paper reports contrary to some previous work extensive evidence of the effect in several non g7 countries using the single equation distributed lag garch p q estimation and the systems var estimation the liquidity effect is shown to be alive and well in a sample of nine countries and this will shed much light on policy implications

what should fiscal councils do fiscal watchdogs so called fiscal councils have been proposed as a method to counter deficit bias of fiscal policy the paper analyses theoretically what role fiscal councils could play and surve

monetary policy and short term interest rates an efficient markets rational expectations approach this paper is an application of efficient markets rational expectations theory to analyze empirically the relationship of money supply growth and short term interest rates a hotly debated issue in the literature this approach has the advantage over earlier research on this subject in that it imposes a theoretical structure that allows easier interpretation of the empirical results as well as more powerful statistical tests the empirical results uniformly do not support the proposition that increases in money growth are correlated with declines in short rates the relationship between money supply growth and nominal interest rates is a hotly debated issue in the literature one view associated with keynesian structural macromodels has an increase in money growth leading at least in the short and medium runs to a decline in interest rates 2 an alternative view associated with milton friedman 6 7 indicates that interest rates might rise in response to higher money growth because there is a rise in inflationary expectations and hence a rise in interest rates through a fisher 5 effect

the attenuation of human capital spillovers abstract this paper uses 2000 census data to estimate the relationship of agglomeration and proximity to human capital to wages the paper takes a geographic approach and focuses on the attenuation of agglomeration and human capital effects differencing and instrumental variable methods are employed to address endogeneity in the wage agglomeration relationship and also to deal with measurement error in our agglomeration and human capital variables three key results are obtained first the spatial concentration of employment within five miles is positively related to wage second the benefits of spatial concentration are driven by proximity to college educated workers an instance of human capital spillovers third these effects attenuate sharply with distance

sticking to fiscal plans the role of institutions the rules based fiscal framework of the emu relies heavily on the development of medium term fiscal plans by the eu governments in this paper i present an empirical analysis of the deviations from the plans presented in the annual stability and convergence programs i focus on projections for real gdp growth and general government balances revenues and spending at different time horizons i show that deviations from the projections presented in these programs since 1999 can be explained by institutional factors i e the form of fiscal governance and the stringency of fiscal rules

testing the rationality of price forecasts new evidence from panel data this paper tests the rationality of individual price forecasts in a panel of professional forecasters here unlike in most previous studies rationality is not rejected the results here differ because 1 using individual forecasts avoids aggregation bias 2 comparison of forecasts to initial data avoids bias due to data revision 3 the professional forecasters have economic incentives to state their expectations accurately and 4 a new covariance matrix estimator consistent when forecast errors are correlated across individuals is used copyright 1990 by american economic association

money and interest in a cash in advance economy the authors analyze an aggregative general equilibrium model in which the use of money is motivated by a cash in advance constraint applied to purchases of a subset of consumption goods the system is subject to both real and monetary shocks which are economy wide and observed by all they develop methods for verifying the existence of characterizing and explicitly calculating equilibria copyright 1987 by the econometric society

cross section estimation of the matching function evidence from england and wales this paper analyses how the levels of unemployment and vacancies affect the rate at which unemployed workers find employment the worker firm matching function in particular we test the robustness of previous empirical work by checking whether we obtain the same estimated function using cross section data rather than aggregate time series data we find strong evidence of constant returns to scale similar to previous work we also find larger cities have higher wages this provides indirect support for increasing returns but where those returns are taken in the form of better quality matches

breakthrough inventions and migrating clusters of innovation abstract we investigate the speed at which clusters of invention for a technology migrate spatially following breakthrough inventions we identify breakthrough inventions as the top 1 of us inventions for a technology during 1975 1984 in terms of subsequent citations patenting growth is significantly higher in cities and technologies where breakthrough inventions occur after 1984 relative to peer locations that do not experience breakthrough inventions this growth differential in turn depends on the mobility of the technology s labor force which we model through the extent that technologies depend upon immigrant scientists and engineers spatial adjustments are faster for technologies that depend heavily on immigrant inventors the results qualitatively confirm the mechanism of industry migration proposed in models like duranton duranton g 2007 urban evolutions the fast the slow and the still american economic review 97 197 221

residential mobility housing equity and the labour market henley a g 1998 residential mobility housing equity and the labour market economic journal 108 447 414 427

the fed and interest rates a high frequency identification we measure monetary policy shocks as changes in the fed funds target rate that surprise bond markets in daily data these shock series avoid the omitted variable time varying parameter and orthogonalization problem of monthly vars and do not impose the expectations hypothesis we find surprisingly large and persistent responses of bond yields to these shocks 10 year rates rise as much as 8 10 of a percent to a one percent target shock the usual view that monetary policy only temporarily raises long term rates and influences inflation would lead one to predict a negative long rate response this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the migration of technical workers using panel data on the danish population we estimated the revealed preferences of scientists and engineers for the places in which they choose to work our results indicate that these technical workers exhibit substantial sensitivity to differences in wages but that they have even stronger preferences for living close to family and friends the magnitude of these preferences moreover suggests that the greater geographic mobility of scientists and engineers relative to the population as a whole stems from more pronounced variation across regions in the wages that they can expect these results remain robust to estimation on a sample of individuals who must select new places of work for reasons unrelated to their preferences those who had been employed at establishments that discontinued operations

improving fiscal policy in the eu the case for independent forecasts are official output forecasts biased we point out that official forecasts of output dynamics are crucial to the assessment of cyclically adjusted budget balances and provide evidence that in some euro area countries biased forecasts have played a thus far neglected role in generating excessive deficits we suggest that the forecast bias may be politically motivated and that forecasts produced by an independent authority would be better than in house ministry of finance forecasts for the purpose of monitoring budget formation and budget outcomes lars jonung and martin larch

the return of the liquidity effect a study of the short run relation between money growth and interest rates in this article i use band pass filters to investigate the short run relationship between money growth and interest rates i find a negative correlation between short run movements in money growth and interest rates which i interpret as evidence that the liquidity effect dominates the anticipated inflation effect

an empirical index for labor market density we derive a structural index for labor market density based on the ellison glaeser index for industry concentration the labor market density index serves as a proxy for the number of workers that are potentially available for jobs in a particular area the index is based on observed home work location patterns it is particularly useful for testing theories where the scale of the market matters we apply this index to a standard wage equation and find that it explains almost half of the cross region wage variance

the federal reserve s operating procedure nonborrowed reserves borrowed reserves and the liquidity effect abstract recently a number of researchers christiano and eichenbaum 1992 christiano et al 1996a b 1997 evans and marshall 1998 strongin 1995 pagan and robertson 1995 brunner 1994 claim to have found evidence of a statistically significant liquidity effect in a recursive structural var using nonborrowed reserves nbr it is claimed that innovations to nbr reflect the exogenous policy actions of the fed this paper argues that the opposite is true specifically i show that the fed has an incentive to offset bank initiated discount window borrowing when it implements the federal open market committee s policy directive and that it has done so since the late 1950s this practice has created a negative contemporaneous covariance between nbr and the funds rate that has been incorrectly attributed to the liquidity effect by showing that these models capture the endogenous response of the fed to bank borrowing on nbr rather than the effect of exogenous policy actions on the funds rate this paper also resolves the puzzle of the vanishing liquidity effect noted by pagan and robertson 1995 and christiano 1995

the measurement of unemployment an empirical approach although the unemployment rate is one of the most widely cited and closely monitored economic statistics the definition and measurement of unemployment remain controversial an important issue is whether non employed persons who display a marginal attachment to the labor force for example those who are available for and desire work but are not searching for work should be classified as unemployed or non participants although this issue has been extensively debated it has never been tested empirically this paper carries out empirical tests of this and related hypotheses using a unique longitudinal data set from canada we find within the marginally attached a waiting group whose behavior indicates that they would be more appropriately classified as unemployed rather than out of the labor force the remainder of the marginally attached exhibit behavior between that of the unemployed and the balance of non participants suggesting that the desire for work among non searchers conveys substantial information about labor force attachment and future employment status our methods also apply to heterogeneity within the unemployed and we investigate behavioral variation linked to differences in job search methods and reasons for entry into unemployment although those using passive job search do exhibit behavior somewhat distinct from active searchers our results reject the practice of classifying passive job searchers as out of the labor force overall our results indicate that the non employed are very heterogeneous so that any single division into unemployment and out of the labor force is unlikely to fully capture the variety of degrees of labor force attachment this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

bond yields and the federal reserve bond yields respond to policy decisions by the federal reserve and vice versa to learn about these responses i model a high frequency policy rule based on yield curve information and an arbitrage free bond market in continuous time the fed s target is a pure jump process jump intensities depend on the state of the economy and the meeting calendar of the federal open market committee the model has closed form solutions for yields as functions of a few state variables introducing monetary policy helps to match the whole yield curve because the target is an observable state variable that pins down its short end and introduces important seasonalities around fomc meetings the volatility of yields is snake shaped which the model explains with policy inertia the policy rule crucially depends on the two year yield and describes fed policy better than taylor rules

systematic risk over various frequency bands an empirical analysis of returns on size ranked portfolios abstract this paper finds negative risk premia for market betas obtained from some of the high frequency components of portfolio returns and value weighted market returns the size effect is likely to be more pronounced for the high frequency components

political biases despite external expert participation an empirical analysis of tax revenue forecasts in germany this paper explores whether and how political biases arise in an institutional setting where revenue forecasting is delegated to a body that includes experts from institutions neither part of nor controlled by the government the empirical analysis focuses on the performance of german federal tax revenue forecasts in the preparation of which the advice of external experts has a long tradition as an institutional safeguard while on average revenue forecasts turn out to be unbiased the results show that the government exerts an influence in particular optimism pessimism in the government s gdp forecast helps to explain why the revenue forecast turns out too optimistic pessimistic in addition governmental estimates of the revenue effects of tax law changes are found to contribute to forecast errors

interest rates and exchange rates under money supply targets the swiss evidence abstract short term effects of monetary policy on interest rates and exchange rates are evaluated with monthly and daily data for switzerland from 1974 to 1991 during this period the swiss national bank generally pursued a policy of targeting the money supply some evidence in favor of liquidity effects on interest rates is found the influence of changes in monetary aggregates is however not very strong both in terms of magnitude and explanatory power and depends on the time period investigated exchange rates do not react systematically to monetary policy actions

the effects of money growth on inflation and interest rates across spectral frequency bands band spectral regression techniques are used to identify the frequency bands that are most important in the relationships between money growth and inflation and between money growth and the nominal interest rate the results show that cycles in the growth rate of m1 from one to two years long produce higher frequency cycles in inflation and two distinct sets of higher frequency cycles in changes in the nominal interest rate the results support models where predictable changes in money growth produce liquidity and anticipated inflation effects on nominal interest rates copyright 1994 by ohio state university press

long and short term interest rates in a risky world abstract the paper develops and tests a general equilibrium model in which variability or risk affects the choice of portfolios our measures of variability include only the variability of unanticipated growth in monetary and non monetary aggregates and our tests use data ending with the change in federal reserve procedures in october 1979 we find that increased variability of unanticipated money growth raises demands for debt and money and reduces the demand for real capital interest rates on both short and long term debt rise by a risk premium we estimate the size of the risk premium before and after the october 1979 change and we show that the change in federal reserve procedures moved the economy to a less efficient point

two illustrations of the quantity theory of money of two central implications of the quantity theory of money that a given change in the rate of change in the quantity of money induces i an equal change in the rate of price inflation and ii an equal change in nominal rates of interest the illustrations were obtained by comparing moving averages of the three variables in question using quarterly u s time series for the period 1953 77 readers may find the results of interest as additional confirmation of the quantity theory as an example of one way in which the quantity theoretic relationships can be uncovered via atheoretical methods from time series which are subject to a variety of other forces or as a measure of the extent to which the inflation and interest rate experience of the postwar period can be understood in terms of purely classical monetary forces the theoretical background of the study is reviewed very briefly as it is familiar material in the next section the data processing methods are described and rationalized in section ii the illustrations