domestic responses to capital market internationalization under the gold standard 1870 1914 the internationalization of capital markets that occurred during the era of the classical gold standard 1870 1914 was part of a broader set of trends that threatened to drain local markets from capital and channel that capital to the national financial center and from there toward other national financial centers still internationalization was neither inevitable uniform nor irreversible but was a political choice informed by redistributional considerations between rival domestic interests and decided by politically dominant coalitions the domestic institutional structure in each country determined the composition of the politically dominant coalition decentralized structures allowed potential losers to curb public policies favorable to capital market internationalization whereas centralized structures allowed expected winners to promote such policies as a result economies with centralized states ended up being the most dependent on the international capital market whereas economies with decentralized states took a less active part in the globalization of finance

key findings from the core north american scenarios in the emf34 intermodel comparison abstract within canada mexico or the united states policy making organizations are evaluating energy markets and energy trade within their own borders often by ignoring how these countries energy systems are integrated with each other these analytical gaps provided the main motivation for the energy modeling forum emf 34 study on north american energy integration and trade this paper compares north american results from 17 models and discusses their policy motivation oil and natural gas production in the three major countries are modestly sensitive to crude oil and natural gas price changes although these elasticities are below unity carbon taxes displace coal and some natural gas with renewables within all three power markets lower natural gas prices replace coal and some renewables with natural gas within electric generation higher intermittent renewable penetration in the power sector displaces coal and some natural gas a key conclusion is that much remains to be done in integrating future analyses and in sharing and improving the quality and consistency of the underlying data

renewable electricity policies heterogeneity and cost effectiveness abstract renewable electricity policies promote investment in renewable electricity generators and have become increasingly common around the world because of intermittency and the composition of other generators in the power system the value of certain renewable particularly wind and solar varies across locations and technologies this paper investigates the implications of this heterogeneity for the cost effectiveness of renewable electricity policies a simple model of the power system shows that renewable electricity policies cause different investment mixes policies also differ according to their effect on electricity prices and both factors cause the cost effectiveness to vary across policies we use a detailed long run planning model that accounts for intermittency on an hourly basis to compare the cost effectiveness for a range of policies and alternative parameter assumptions the differences in cost effectiveness are economically significant where broader policies such as an emissions price outperform renewable electricity policies

environmental accounting for pollution in the united states economy this study presents a framework to include environmental externali ties into a system of national accounts the paper estimates the air pollution damages for each industry in the united states an inte grated assessment model quantifies the marginal damages of air pol lution emissions for the us which are multiplied times the quantity of emissions by industry to compute gross damages solid waste com bustion sewage treatment stone quarrying marinas and oil and coal fired power plants have air pollution damages larger than their value added the largest industrial contributor to external costs is coal fired electric generation whose damages range from 0 8 to 5 6 times value added jel e01 l94 q53 q56

what should we expect from innovation a model based assessment of the environmental and mitigation cost implications of climate related r d abstract this paper addresses two basic issues related to technological innovation and climate stabilization objectives can innovation policies be effective in stabilizing climate to what extent can innovation policies complement carbon pricing taxes or permit trading and improve the economic efficiency of a mitigation policy package to answer these questions we use an integrated assessment model with multiple externalities and an endogenous representation of the technical progress in the energy sector we evaluate a range of innovation policies both as stand alone and in combination with other mitigation policies our analysis indicates that innovation policies alone are unlikely to stabilize global concentration and temperature as for the benefits of combining climate and innovation policies we find efficiency gains of 10 6 usd trillions in net present value terms for a stringent climate policy and 30 3 usd trillions for a milder one however such gains are reduced when more plausible sub optimal global innovation policy arrangements are considered

economic and technical challenges of flexible operations under large scale variable renewable deployment abstract fundamental characteristics of solar and wind power have generated controversy about their economic competitiveness and appropriate techniques for assessing their value this research presents an approach to quantify the economic value of variable renewable capacity and demonstrates its dependence on renewable deployment levels regional resource endowments fleet flexibility and trade assumptions it assesses economic and technical impacts of large scale renewable penetration by linking two models representing electric sector investments and detailed operations model results for california and texas suggest that operational constraints and costs of dispatchable generators e g minimum load levels ramping limits startup costs can impact renewable integration costs but the temporal and spatial variability of solar and wind are larger determinants of their value restrictions on transmission and regional coordination in capacity planning and dispatch decrease the economic value of variable renewable energy highlighting the potential roles of market design and trade energy storage is shown to be a valuable balancing asset at higher solar and wind penetration levels but potential revenues diminish with increased storage deployment

the reductionist gamble open economy politics in the global economy international political economy ipe should transition to third wave scholarship because open economy politics oep which dominates current american ipe scholarship can generate inaccurate knowledge oep can produce inaccurate knowledge because it studies domestic politics in isolation from international or macro processes this methodological reductionism is often inappropriate for the phenomena ipe studies because governments inhabit a complex social system as a result the political choices that oep strives to explain are typically a product of the interplay between domestic politics and macro processes when oep omits causally significant macro processes from empirical models the models yield biased inferences about the domestic political relationships under investigation although scholars tolerated such errors when the gains from oep were large these errors are less tolerable now that oep has matured consequently the field should transition toward research that is nonreductionist problem driven and pluralistic

the impact of technological change on climate protection and welfare insights from the model mind abstract avoiding dangerous climate change is likely to require policies to mitigate co2 emissions that are substantially more ambitious than those currently being considered for such policies the issue of endogenous technological change becomes important both to estimate the overall costs and to identify the intertemporally cost effective combination of mitigation options in this paper we first discuss the recent literature that evaluates the potential for endogenous technological change to reduce mitigation costs and the efforts to incorporate endogenous technological change into pre existing integrated assessment models then we formulate our own integrated assessment model the model of investment and technological development mind which allows analysis of the relationship between specific mitigation options and the costs of ambitious climate protection objectives our model reveals two important results first the incorporation of technological change in a portfolio of mitigation options can reduce the costs of climate policies substantially achieving the ambitious policy goals necessary to avoid dangerous climate change becomes feasible without significant welfare losses second the different mitigation options are of different importance in achieving climate protection goals improving energy efficiency becomes too costly as a major mitigation option in the long run in the long run fossil fuels have to be substituted by renewable energy sources because a backstop technology with the potential of learning by doing has the strongest impact on reducing the welfare losses due to climate protection furthermore carbon capturing and sequestration can allow for further reduction in the costs of climate protection and can postpone the need to transform the energy system from a fossil fuel based one to a renewables one

u s energy sector impacts of technology innovation fuel price and electric sector co2 policy results from the emf 32 model intercomparison study abstract we study the impact of fuel prices technology innovation and a co 2 emissions reduction policy on both the electric power and end use sectors by comparing outputs from four u s energy economic models through the year 2050 achieving innovation goals decreases co 2 emissions in all models regardless of natural gas price due to increased energy efficiency and low carbon generation becoming more cost competitive for the models that include domestic natural gas markets achieving innovation goals lowers wholesale electricity prices but this effect diminishes as projected natural gas prices increase higher natural gas prices lead to higher wholesale electricity prices but fewer coal capacity retirements a co 2 electric power sector emissions cap influences electric sector evolution under reference technology assumptions but has little to no incremental influence when added to innovation goals long term meeting innovation goals achieves a generation mix with similar co 2 emissions compared to the co 2 policy but with smaller increases to wholesale electricity prices in the short term the relative effect on wholesale prices differs by model finally higher natural gas prices achieving innovation goals and the combination of the two increases the amount of renewable generation that is cost effective to build and operate while slowing the growth of natural gas fired generation which is the predominant generation type in 2050 under reference conditions

electric sector policy technological change and u s emissions reductions goals results from the emf 32 model intercomparison project the energy modeling forum emf 32 study compares a range of coordinated scenarios to explore implications of u s climate policy options and technological change on the electric power sector harmonized policy scenarios including mass based emissions limits and various power sector only carbon tax trajectories across 16 models provide comparative assessments of potential impacts on electric sector investment and generation outcomes emissions reductions and economic implications this paper compares results across these policy alternatives including a variety of technological and natural gas price assumptions and summarizes robust findings and areas of disagreement across participating models under a wide range of policy technology and market assumptions model results suggest that future coal generation will decline relative to current levels while generation from natural gas wind and solar will increase though the pace and extent of these changes vary by policy scenario technological assumptions region and model climate policies can amplify trends already under way and make them less susceptible to future market changes the model results provide useful insights to a range of stakeholders but future research focused on intersectoral linkages in emission reductions e g the role of electrification effects of energy storage and better coverage of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage beccs can improve insights even further

cost trajectories of low carbon electricity generation technologies in the uk a study of cost uncertainty cost uncertainty has latterly come to be presented in the uk s department of energy and climate change decc levelised cost of electricity lcoe estimates using sensitivities high and low figures are presented alongside central estimates this presentation of uncertainty is limited in its provision of context and as an overall picture of how costs and uncertainty vary over time this study aims to address these two shortcomings two analyses are performed using reported decc lcoe estimates for three important electricity generation technologies for the uk nuclear offshore wind and coal with carbon capture and storage the first analysis composes lcoe estimate trajectories from previous years decc estimates and presents them alongside contextual data including some out turn costs the second quantifies the variability presented in the lcoe estimate trajectories for commissioning dates in the decade 2020 2030 nuclear costs are presented as both the most consistent and lowest in magnitude an imminently forecast steep fall in the lcoe of offshore wind raises questions about the timing of investment and deployment in most cases estimate variability decreases over the estimation horizon strangely suggesting greater levels of certainty for further flung commissioning dates further observations and implications for policy stemming from the analyses are discussed

nuclear reactors construction costs the role of lead time standardization and technological progress this paper provides the first comparative analysis of nuclear reactor construction costs in france and the united states studying the cost of nuclear power has often been a challenge owing to the lack of reliable data sources and heterogeneity between countries as well as the long time horizon which requires controlling for input prices and structural changes we build a simultaneous system of equations for overnight costs and construction time lead time to control for endogeneity using expected demand variation as an instrument we argue that benefits from nuclear reactor program standardization can arise through short term coordination gains when the diversity of nuclear reactors technologies under construction is low or through long term benefits from learning spillovers from past reactor construction experience if those spillovers are limited to similar reactors we find that overnight construction costs benefit directly from learning spillovers but that these spillovers are only significant for nuclear models built by the same architect engineer a e in addition we show that the standardization of nuclear reactors under construction has an indirect and positive effect on construction costs through a reduction in lead time the latter being one of the main drivers of construction costs conversely we also explore the possibility of learning by searching and find that contrary to other energy technologies innovation leads to construction costs increases

emissions pricing spillovers and public investment in environmentally friendly technologies in a second best world of below optimal pollution pricing the public return to r d may be greater than under pigouvian pricing due to excess benefits of increasing abatement or it may be lower since private actors lack the incentives to take full advantage of the new cleaner technologies this paper uses a simple model to demonstrate the interaction between environmental policies r d externalities and the social return to innovation the results indicate that strong public support for innovation in abatement technologies is only justified if at least a moderate emissions policy is in place and spillover effects are significant if emissions policy can adjust to cost changes the public role may be enhanced since private actors will prefer to avoid ratcheting social gains from innovation increase only if innovation can allow emissions to be more fully priced technology policy is more effective with fuller emissions pricing and is better viewed as a complement to than a substitute for mitigation policy

the politics of public aid to private industry the role of policy networks firms lobby for subsidies along geographic sector or factor lines and as a result receive subsidies with a local sectoral or factorwide scope this article investigates what determines the line of cleavage and thereby the scope of the subsidy the factor mobility hypothesis according to which an economic prior the degree of factor mobility determines the geometry of lobbying coalitions misses the fact that factor mobility is as much the product of policy and policymaking as it is its determinant this article argues instead that politicians maximize their chances of staying in power through the deliberate use of subsidies to structure the political debate and embed factor owners into stable policy networks individual factor owners in turn join these policy networks to lobby for monopoly rents capable of insuring them against adverse economic competition the model yields two testable hypotheses first right governments favor subsidies to capital whereas left governments favor subsidies to lab

cost estimates for nuclear power in the uk abstract current uk government support for nuclear power has in part been informed by cost estimates that suggest that electricity from new nuclear power stations will be competitive with alternative low carbon generation options the evidence and analysis presented in this paper suggests that the capital cost estimates for nuclear power that are being used to inform these projections rely on costs escalating over the pre construction and construction phase of the new build programme at a level significantly below those that have been experienced by past us and european programmes this paper applies observed construction time and cost escalation rates to the published estimates of capital costs for new nuclear plant in the uk and calculates the potential impact on levelised cost per unit of electricity produced the results suggest that levelised cost may turn out to be significantly higher than expected which in turn has important implications for policy both in general terms of the potential costs to consumers and more specifically for negotiations around the level of policy support and contractual arrangements offered to individual projects through the proposed contract for difference strike price

phoenix risen the resurrection of global finance of all the many changes of the world economy since world war ii few have been nearly so dramatic as the resurrection of global finance a review of five recent books suggests considerable diversity of opinion concerning both the causes and the consequences of financial globalization leaving much room for further research competing historical interpretations stressing the contrasting roles of market forces and government policies need to be reexamined for dynamic linkages among the variables they identify likewise impacts on state policy at both the macro and micro levels should be explored more systematically to understand not just whether constraints may be imposed on governments but also how and under what conditions and what policymakers can do about them finally questions are also raised about implications for the underlying paradigm conventionally used for the study of international political economy and international relations more generally

the impact of r d on innovation for wind energy in denmark germany and the united kingdom this paper examines the impact of public research and development r d support on cost reducing innovation for wind turbine farms in denmark germany and the united kingdom uk first we survey the literature in this field the literature indicates that in denmark r d policy has been more successful than in germany or the uk in promoting innovation of wind turbines furthermore such studies point out that subsidy induced capacity expansions were more effective in the uk and denmark in promoting cost reducing innovation than in germany the second part of the paper describes the quantitative analysis of the impact of r d and capacity expansion on innovation this is calculated using the two factor learning curve 2flc model in which investment cost reductions are explained by cumulative capacity and the r d based knowledge stock time series data were collected for the three countries and organized as a panel data set the parameters of the 2flc model were estimated focusing on the homogeneity and heterogeneity of the parameters across countries we arrived at robust estimations of a learning by doing rate of 5 4 and a learning by searching rate of 12 6 the analysis underlines the homogeneity of the learning parameters enhancing the validity of the 2flc formulation

the market value of variable renewables the effect of solar wind power variability on their relative price this paper provides a comprehensive discussion of the market value of variable renewable energy vre the inherent variability of wind speeds and solar radiation affects the price that vre generators receive on the market market value during windy and sunny times the additional electricity supply reduces the prices because the drop is larger with more installed capacity the market value of vre falls with higher penetration rate this study aims to develop a better understanding on how the market value with penetration and how policies and prices affect the market value quantitative evidence is derived from a review of published studies regression analysis of market data and the calibrated model of the european electricity market emma we find the value of wind power to fall from 110 of the average power price to 50 80 as wind penetration increases from zero to 30 of total electricity consumption for solar power similarly low value levels are reached already at 15 penetration hence competitive large scale renewable deployment will be more difficult to accomplish than as many anticipate

the origins of central banking solutions to the free rider problem certain domestic institutions are sources of international power by way of their abilities to encourage investment and to mobilize social resources in wartime for example states with democratic institutions almost always win the wars they e ght a regularity known as the democratic advantage 1 this result is intriguing since it rests on intuition about the effects of military competition on domestic institutions rivalry among states may put pressure on sovereigns to provide the political foundations for secure markets in order to enlarge future military capabilities in this article i address the role of war in inducing domestic institutions that allowed governments to credibly commit to promises to pay their debts a probable source of democracies edge in war rather than investigate the entire range of protections affected by democratic institutions a life s endeavor as the work of douglass north attests i focus on a single e nancial element of the reforms the innovation of central banking britain s superior e nancial economic and military performance after 1689 rested in large part on the establishment of the bank of england 2 the central bank provided a commitment technology that improved the government s ability to borrow a need impelled by intense military competition 3 my motivation derives from puzzles concerning the origins and the diffusion of credibility enhancing institutions like central banks institutions resolve collective action problems but institutions themselves are public goods meaning that their origins are subject to the same dilemmas they are meant to resolve 4 what then explains the incentives of self interested and free riding individuals to contribute to

comparative national balance sheets a study of twenty countries 1688 1978 raymond w goldsmith has combined his experience good sense and flair with figures to construct this groundbreaking comparative study of the balance sheets of twenty of the largest nations a pioneer in the field of national accounts goldsmith now presents a work that will be a valuable tool in tracking the economic progress of and between nations the majority of the balance sheets were created especially for this project their components gleaned from fragmentary and heterogeneous data there are approximately 3 500 entries each measuring the value of one type of tangible or financial asset or liability at a given date goldsmith s estimates are keyed to fifteen benchmark dates in the economic progress of the cited nations and for twelve nations he was able to construct balance sheets dating back to the nineteenth century or earlier combined worldwide balance sheet are included for 1950 and 1978 comparative national balance sheets will provide an essential basis for the quantitative analysis of the long term financial development of these nations in addition to national balance sheets for all large countries except brazil and china sectoral balance sheets for france germany great britain india japan and the united states in the postwar period are also included

capital mobility and the origins of stock markets i illustrate the accepted though hardly researched idea that political institutions play a role in locking in factor specificity across sectors space and borders i use the emergence of modern capital markets in the nineteenth century a process that threatened to redeploy financial resources away from land and traditional sectors to heavy industry as a test case to ascertain the degree of domestic financial capital mobility in nine advanced industrialized countries the main finding is that cross national variations in financial capital mobility holding constant the level of economic development reflect the degree of state centralization

hybrid renewable energy support policy in the power sector the contracts for difference and capacity market case study abstract the article employs qualitative methods in contextualizing and conceptualizing the hybrid renewable energy support policy it claims that hybrid policies may combine distinct mechanisms to drive desirable objectives better than traditional policies a policy cycle helps to frame the united kingdom s contracts for difference and capacity market cfd cm scheme as a case study the cfd cm policy emerged to address environmental and energy challenges through the deployment of renewable energy re in a low carbon economy employing liberalization environmental protection is foremost in this scheme the policy combines and improves on the elements of feed in tariff fit and quota obligation qo and strives to solve the problems of these traditional policies it addresses regulatory uncertainty under fit by employing private law mechanics to guarantee above loss reward for low carbon generation and addresses market uncertainty under qo by incentivizing the capacity to supply future low carbon energy based on projected demand hence creating a predictable and stable market it also accommodates other important commitments overall the cfd cm scheme is a hybrid policy that engages the energy market mainly for advancing the end goal of environmental protection to thrive however it needs to meet private sector interests substantially

the political economy of international trade enduring puzzles and an agenda for inquiry a similar set of concepts has been central to the literatures on the formation of trade policy coalitions and the new economics of institutions the political and economic consequences of the degree to which assets are specific to a particular economic activity in this survey the authors take the necessary first step of summarizing the main findings of these two literatures and then suggest ways in which the issue might be joined in addition to providing a more coherent understanding of the findings of these two literatures and some new directions for them the authors show that many puzzles remain in the field of trade politics puzzles for which there are no appealing answers or where there are answers no strong evidence in support of them this essay then in addition to being a theoretical review of the literature puts forward an agenda for future study of international trade politics

democracy and international trade britain france and the united states daniel verdier 1860 1990 princeton university press princeton 1994 pp xx 387 45 00

asset specificity and the political behavior of firms lobbying for subsidies in norway previous research into endogenous trade policy has described extensively the political incentives of firms with specific assets but no studies have shown directly that firms behave as predicted we adopt insights from transaction costs economics to develop measures of asset specificity and to investigate how variation in these measures affects the political behavior of firms in particular we examine the lobbying choices of norwegian firms in the 1980s given available subsidy funds from norway s oil boom and some government decisions in the 1970s firms with more specific assets faced potentially greater losses from adjusting to new activities in the face of competitive pressures and thus had greater incentives to lobby for subsidies to protect themselves joint contacting of parliament and government on behalf of firm interests by representatives of both management and labor should be particularly likely where firms had specific assets data analysis shows that asset specificity as indicated by r d intensity and job immobility predicts joint contacting independently of plausible alternative explanatory variables like firm size and export orientation

electric sector capacity planning under uncertainty climate policy and natural gas in the us abstract this research investigates the dynamics of capacity planning and dispatch in the us electric power sector under a range of technological economic and policy related uncertainties using a two stage stochastic programming approach model results suggest that the two most critical risks in the near term planning process of the uncertainties considered here are natural gas prices and the stringency of climate policy stochastic strategies indicate that some near term hedging from lower cost wind and nuclear may occur but robustly demonstrate that delaying investment and waiting for more information can be optimal to avoid stranding capital intensive assets hedging strategies protect against downside losses while retaining the option value of deferring irreversible commitments until more information is available about potentially lucrative market opportunities these results are explained in terms of the optionality of investments in the electric power sector leading to more general insights about uncertainty learning and irreversibility the stochastic solution is especially valuable if decision makers do not sufficiently account for the potential of climate constraints in future decades or if fuel price projections are outdated

invested interests the politics of national economic policies in a world of global finance capital moves more rapidly across national borders now than it has in at least fifty years and perhaps in history this article examines the effects of capital mobility on different groups in national societies and on the politics of economic policymaking it begins by emphasizing that while financial markets are highly integrated within the developed world many investments are still quite specific with respect to firm sector or location it then argues that contemporary levels of international capital mobility have a differential impact on socioeconomic groups over the long run increased capital mobility tends to favor owners of capital over other groups in the shorter run owners and workers in specific sectors in capital exporting countries bear much of the burden of adjusting to increased capital mobility these patterns can be expected to lead to political divisions about whether or not to encourage or increase international capital market integration the article then demonstrates that capital mobility also affects the politics of other economic policies most centrally it shifts debate toward the exchange rate as an intermediate or ultimate policy instrument in this context it tends to pit groups that favor exchange rate stability against groups that are more concerned about national monetary policy autonomy and therefore less concerned about exchange rate stability similarly it tends to drive a wedge between groups that favor an appreciated exchange rate and groups that favor a depreciated one these divisions have important implications for such economic policies as european monetary and currency union the dollar yen exchange rate and international macroeconomic policy coordination

value of technology in the u s electric power sector impacts of full portfolios and technological change on the costs of meeting decarbonization goals abstract power sector decarbonization is an important pillar of climate mitigation efforts but perspectives differ about the relative competitiveness of generation technologies and how limited portfolio approaches e g where non renewable generation options are prohibited could alter the costs and likelihoods of reaching emissions reduction goals the existing literature on impacts of technological availability and cost on electric sector planning typically use models that do not have sufficient technological spatial and temporal detail to adequately resolve the economic competitiveness of variable renewable energy vis a vis dispatchable generators using a state of the art energy economic model this work examines impacts of technological availability and advanced generation technologies on u s electricity market outcomes across a range of regional market and policy contexts we show that decarbonization costs are 11 76 higher as technological options are removed from consideration incremental compliance costs for a 95 co2 reduction below 2005 levels are roughly twice as high when new nuclear carbon capture equipped units and transmission are not allowed however the economic and technical implications of limited portfolios depend on the market and policy contexts e g costs are higher with stringent targets more extensive end use electrification and lower gas prices and the costs and capabilities of the remaining options the analysis demonstrates how lower temporal and spatial resolution models likely understate the value of technology by omitting key economic and technical features of high variable renewable pathways additionally the analysis quantifies how technological change can lower costs of emissions reductions by 7 73 and how low cost battery storage can provide a hedge against higher costs when technological portfolios are limited