equilibrium unemployment search behaviour and unemployment persistency unemployment persistency and high equilibrium unemployment is often assumed to be caused by rigidities and low search efficiency in the labour market especially in european welfare states with generous income replacement schemes these arguments are tested on data from sweden an old welfare state with a long period of full employment that has changed into a situation with high unemployment data show a clear and very strong unemployment duration dependency but it is not possible to prove that this is a result of low employability among the long term unemployed getting a job is most of all associated with relative qualifications recall expectations and local labour market conditions and not with search behaviour or high wage demands it is argued that unemployment duration when unemployment is high can best be understood as a selection process rather than a search process and that econometric estimations of equilibrium unemployment are too pessimistic about the potential for an expansive economic policy it is also argued that an active labour market policy is a more efficient compliment to such a policy than changes in income replacement ratios copyright 2001 by oxford university press

linking permit markets multilaterally we formally study the determinants magnitude and distribution of efficiency gains generated in multilateral linkages between permit markets we provide two novel decomposition results for these gains characterize individual preferences over linking groups and show that our results are largely unaltered with strategic domestic emissions cap selection or when banking and borrowing are allowed using the paris agreement pledges and power sector emissions data of five countries which all use or considered using both emissions trading and linking we quantify the efficiency gains we find that the computed gains can be sizable and are split roughly equally between effort and risk sharing

bankable permits for the control of environmental pollution abstract intertemporal trading of emission permits banking is often identified as one of three promising market mechanisms for controlling pollution along with averaging and trading surprisingly the efficiency properties of permit banking systems have not been investigated using a simple optimal control model this paper investigates firms incentives for banking or borrowing emission permits and compares the emission and output streams firms would choose with the socially optimal solution we find that in many cases firms will suboptimally choose excessive damage and output levels in early periods and correspondingly too few in later periods if given the opportunity to freely move emissions between time periods we propose a simple alternative trading scheme we term modified banking that counters this problem and should be no more difficult for an environmental authority to implement than a straigth banking system

place to place migration in colombia the determinants of lifetime and recent place to place migration in colombia are investigated using unpublished data from the 1973 census the data cover 12 zones rural and urban segments of 6 regions and are analyzed for the population as a whole and for eight specific demographic groups including four educational categories and the two sexes the basic proposition is that areas economic opportunities play a central role in determining the spatial allocation of the population the results give strong support to the economic model of migration overall and in explaining differences in migration behavior among demographic groups excerpt

employability adaptability and flexibility changing labour market prospects 2000 employability adaptability and flexibility changing labour market prospects regional studies vol 34 no 7 pp 599 600

flexibility in the market for international carbon credits and price dynamics difference with european allowances the paris agreement establishes a mechanism to allow a party to benefit from greenhouse gases emissions reductions conducted in a host party to fulfil its nationally determined contribution in this context the objective of this paper is to improve the understanding of carbon offsets price dynamics in comparison with regular carbon markets allowances we combine a cointegration approach with risk premium considerations to compare the price dynamics of european union allowances eua and certified emission reductions cer in the second phase of the european carbon market by taking account of breaks identified in the series we find that while the eua and cer returns present comparable dynamics the long term relationships between the price of these two types of permits and their drivers differ significantly given the impact of energy prices positive for coal and negative for gas on the cer price we suggest the existence of a supply side effect for credits we find that the price elasticity of allowances with regard to the coal and gas prices is negative in time periods of low economic activity and positive in the rest of the time we explain the latter by the fact that the market is not tight and the former by the effect of the economic activity on the price of commodities and energy

determinants of internal migration in israel expected returns and risks a multinomial logit model of place to place migration focusing on economic geographic and demographic factors is applied to empirical data on inter regional migration in israel in 1980 it explains 75 of the cross sectional variance in the data the results presented in this paper depart from previous empirical work due to its industrialized context and its focus on risk aversion as a determinant of the migration decision the results support the harris todaro 1970 hypothesis and indicate that regional similarities in the structure of industrial employment promote migration

an emission saved is an emission earned an empirical study of emission banking for light duty vehicle manufacturers abstract this paper presents results of an empirical study of emission banking for light duty vehicle manufacturers an intertemporal model of manufacturers choices is combined with econometrically estimated abatement cost functions to simulate the cost savings and emission effects of an averaging trading and banking marketable permit system relative to command and control regulations while the cost savings of such a system are estimated to be modest the intertemporal emission effects may be sizable the sensitivity of the results to discount rates abatement cost functions and model specifications is also explored

a simultaneous equations analysis of urban development migration and industrial growth in israel s new towns abstract this study analyzes recent patterns of development of israel s new towns through application of a simultaneous equations econometric model this approach enables us to specify and test causal interactions among migration industrial investment employment and other structural and policy variables affecting urban development our results affirm the importance of economic opportunity agglomeration effects population socioeconomic and ethnic composition and access in determining migration flows at the same time unemployment and investment indices are affected by local labor market conditions government incentives and regional development effects as well as by population composition and migration flows policy implications of the analysis are considered

the recent performance of the uk labour market century there is no question that one of the major challenges facing any industrialised country is to ensure that its labour market operates so as to enable people who want to work to do so at a reasonable rate of pay so this will be our focus in what follows in fact we consider two major issues the first refers to the performance of the labour market from the macroeconomic point of view and this we cover in section 2 here we look at unemployment and inflation explaining why recent history from this perspective looks relatively benign and asking about the future consequences of some of the significant policy changes since 1997 the second major issue dealt with in section 3 concerns the imbalances in the labour market across different skill groups focusing particularly on the problem of worklessness facing the unskilled again we attempt to analyse why this problem has arisen and the main thrust of recent policy in attempting to resolve it we then conclude with a summary of what we have learned

market design in cap and trade programs permit validity and compliance timing abstract cap and trade programs have considerable heterogeneity in permit validity and compliance timing for example permits have different validities across time e g banking borrowing and seasons and space e g zonal restrictions and compliance timing can be annual in overlapping cycles or in multi year periods we discuss nine prominent cap and trade programs along these dimensions and construct a general model of permit validity and compliance timing we derive sufficient conditions under which abatement is invariant to compliance timing i e compliance timing cannot smooth abatement cost shocks under these conditions i expected compliance costs are invariant ii the variance of compliance costs increases with the delayed compliance iii equilibrium prices may not be unique and iv the delayed compliance equilibrium may rely on degenerate prices not determined by marginal abatement costs we demonstrate the model s broad applicability by illustrating different types of temporal permit validity

the economics of pollution permit banking in the context of title iv of the 1990 clean air act amendments abstract this paper presents a model of the collective emission permit banking behavior of electricity generating units affected by title iv of the clean air act amendments of 1990 a rigorous treatment of the constraint that pollution permits cannot be borrowed from future allocations is introduced this approach enables an analysis of the impact of future changes in electricity demand regulations and technologies on the present permit price and emissions level the effect of uncertainty on the banking behavior is also explored

fishing in different pools job search strategies and job finding success in canada in the early 1980s this article examines the job search methods of jobless workers and emphasizes sample selectivity in choice of job search strategies especially use of public employment agencies longitudinal data from the labour force survey of canada for 1981 1983 and 1986 indicate that job search methods change with the business cycle and that many people find jobs without any reported search the determinants of job search success also vary substantially over the business cycle implying a substantial social return to public employment agencies at the 1983 trough of the recession but no noticeable benefits when aggregate unemployment is relatively low

the geographical concentration of labour market disadvantage this paper argues that british welfare to work policies are inadequate given the geographical concentration of worklessness in northern regions and in cities and former coalfields while unemployment has been converging geographically inactivity has not all the welfare to work target groups youth unemployed long term unemployed lone parents the long term sick and partners of the unemployed have closely similar geographical distributions official arguments that there are adequate job vacancies everywhere are shown to be flawed the geography of worklessness is largely explained by the weakness of adjustment through migration and commuting to the loss of jobs in manufacturing and mining the cities being particularly affected by urban rural manufacturing shift policy needs to promote more relevant employment in high unemployment areas through increased spending on derelict land reclamation transport and other infrastructure the case for more supportive policies towards manufacturing should also be considered

old industrial regions and employability inactivity has been growing across the developed world and is especially high in old industrial areas a general move towards more flexible labour markets and the restructuring in these regions ove

public employment agencies and unemployment spells reconciling the experimental and nonexperimental evidence econometric evidence strongly suggests that unemployed job seekers who use the services of a public employment agency pea have longer unemployment spells than those choosing alternative search methods yet in some well designed u s experiments increased use of pea services has been associated with faster transitions intojobs the author argues that the nonexperimental studies may be biased toward finding a positive relationship between unemployment spell duration and pea use because they ignore the possibility that peas are chosen by manyjobseekers only after other search methods have been tried unsuccessfully and a period of unemployment has elapsed an analysis of u k survey data with information on the timing of pea use in 1987 88 supports that hypothesis

a model of intertemporal emission trading banking and borrowing abstract this paper provides a general treatment of emission trading banking and borrowing in an intertemporal continuous time model using optimal control theory the decentralized behavior of firms is shown to lead to the least cost solution attainable under joint cost minimization explicit solutions for the time paths of emissions and permit prices are derived when firms are allowed to both bank and borrow and when firms are only allowed to bank emission permits the policy implications of emission banking and borrowing are discussed

the emergence of migration theory and a suggested new direction abstract the literature on internal labour migration is surveyed using a fourfold taxonomic scheme the potential migrant as presented in the existing literature can be viewed as a supplier of labour an investor in human capital and a consumer of regional amenities such as public goods the paper develops a fourth approach which treats the household rather than the individual as the migrating unit and which views the potential migrant as a producer of home produced commodities the continuities as well as the contrasts between the four approaches are discussed in the paper

reconnecting the long term unemployed to labour market opportunity the case for a local active labour market policy campbell m 2000 reconnecting the long term unemployed to labour market opportunity the case for a local active labour market policy reg studies 34 655 668 this paper argues that the development of a local active labour market policy can make a valuable contribution to reconnecting the long term unemployed to labour market opportunities such an approach is broadly consistent with the evolving eu and uk government policy agendas but it is argued the content and nature of local action needs to be informed by a sound understanding of the causes of long term unemployment and the lessons that can be learnt from studies of the effectiveness of previous active labour market policy interventions at national and local level a strategic framework is proposed which can be used as a means of examining current policy and as an approach to developing local policy campbell m 2000 reintegrer les chomeurs de longue duree dans le marchedu travail pour une politique en faveur d un marchedu travail actif

endogenizing the cap in a cap and trade system assessing the agreement on eu ets phase 4 in early 2018 a reform of the world s largest functioning greenhouse gas emissions cap and trade system the eu emissions trading system ets was formally approved the reform changed the main principles of the system by endogenizing the emissions cap we show that the emissions cap is now affected by the allowance demand and is therefore no longer set directly by eu policymakers as a consequence national policies that reduce allowance demand can now reduce long run cumulative emissions which is not possible in a standard cap and trade system using a newly developed dynamic model of the eu ets we show that policies that reduce allowance demand can have substantial effects on cumulative emissions after the reform model simulations also suggest that the reform reduces long run cumulative emissions and to a lesser extent reduces emissions in the short run even so the reform has a small short run impact on the currently large allowance surplus

individual wealth reservation wages and transitions into employment we investigate the relationship between financial wealth reservation wages and labor market transitions wealth is assumed to affect the level of the reservation wage and the employment probability we test for the validity of this assumption by estimating a simultaneous equations model of reservation wages labor market transitions and wealth the data used for the analysis relate to a sample of unemployed job searchers we use subjective information on the reservation wage wealth is found to have a significantly positive impact on the reservation wage the overall impact of wealth on the employment probability is negative though small

unemployment vacancies and the long term unemployed this paper is concerned with two related features of the labor market the ratio of long term to total unemployment r and the relat ionship between unemployment and vacancies the u v curve a model is developed to explain r in terms of the average probability that an unemployed person will find a job within a particular time period when the authors add the empirically confirmed hypothesis that this exit probability is lower for the long term than it is for the short term unemployed the n the model is consistent with the observed pattern of unemployment copyright 1988 by royal economic society

unemployment questions and some answers in more or less every country in the oecd unemployment was lower in the decades following the second world war than in any other period of comparable length either before or since for example in britain unemployment has exceeded 5 in every peacetime decade from 1850 onwards except for the 1950s and 1960s alternatively as we can see in table 1 p 779 average unemployment in the 1980s and 90s is higher generally much higher than in the 1960s in every country considered why this is so is one of the questions which underlies this paper a second question which is also illustrated in the unemployment numbers presented in table 1 p 779 concerns the causes of the enormous variation in unemployment rates across the oecd countries as we shall see these are difficult questions the first in particular is one for which we do not have a complete answer by this i do not mean that we do not have theories which are broadly consistent with these numbers in fact we have theories consistent with more or less any numbers what we lack is a satisfactory empirical explanation of the time series pattern of oecd unemployment in what follows we remain focused on these two questions first considering the theoretical background and then looking at some possible answers we finish with some speculative conjectures on the first question

mismatch in local labour markets in central scotland the neglected role of demand this paper presents a model of mismatch unemployment in two local labour markets in scotland a total of seven possible sources of such unemployment are identified and examined within the context of a predominantly urban area and a mixed urban rural area these are contiguous travel to work areas ttwas the paper attempts to identify what causes recruitment difficulties and discusses the extent to which the problem is demand induced a survey of employer practices and attitudes is followed up by multiple regression analysis to determine the effect of these practices on vacancy duration the analysis shows that there are certain recruitment practices and inherent characteristics of employers which result in job offers that are either unattractive or inaccessible to the unemployed it is argued that design of policy for implementation at the local level needs to take account more explicitly of the demand side of the local labour market than has so far been evident in the uk approach to the skill mismatch issue

are the unemployed unemployable abstract this paper develops a matching model of the labor market under wage rigidity when hiring decisions are irreversible there are two types of workers the skilled and the unskilled the model is used to analyze whether technological advances may have increased unemployment it is shown that it is likely to be so if they are associated with an increase in the productivity and or the supply of skilled workers relative to unskilled workers these effects are stronger when hiring decisions are more irreversible

on migration and risk in ldcs the authors develop the hypothesis that aversion to risk rather than expectations of higher income is the primary motivation for rural urban migration in developing countries this hypothesis maintains that an optimizing risk averse small farmer family will try to place a family member in the urban sector in order to diversify its income portfolio an additional hypothesis related to risk is also considered at the individual rather than the family level annotation

business cycles and compositional variation in u s unemployment in this article we study u s unemployment dynamics using grouped unemployment data from the current population survey over the period 1968 1992 we estimate a model that traces variation in these unemployment data both over time and between demographic groups back to the underlying variation in the inflow and the outflow in turn we model the outflow as a transition process in which we allow the exit probabilities to depend on calendar time duration and demographic group we use the estimation results to provide a decomposition of aggregate u s unemployment dynamics in various incidence and duration components

the concept of employability the concept of employability plays a crucial role in informing labour market policy in the uk the eu and beyond this paper analyses current and previous applications of the term and discusses its value as an exploratory concept and a framework for policy analysis it then traces the development of the concept discusses its role in current labour market and training strategies with particular reference to the uk and seeks to identify an approach to defining employability that can better inform labour market policy by transcending explanations of employment and unemployment that focus solely on either supply side or demand side factors although the literature offers a range of definitions of employability many policy makers have recently used the term as shorthand for the individual s employability skills and attributes it is argued that this narrow usage can lead to a hollowing out of the concept of employability the paper concludes by presenting a broad framework for analysing employability built around individual factors personal circumstances and external factors which acknowledges the importance of both supply and demand side factors

flexibility premium of emissions permits abstract investments in abatement technology are often characterised by irreversibility and significant implementation lags whereas emissions permits can be traded at any time as such abatement and emissions permit trading systems are hardly perfect substitutes we formally study the flexibility of emissions permits and propose a unified framework to rationalise the impact of both investment divestment lags and irreversibility in relation to the price of emissions permits using option pricing concepts we reformulate the technology adoption problem in terms of the technology s characteristics irreversibility and implementation lags and offer a conceptual quantification of the flexibility premium of emissions permits

labour underutilisation in metropolitan labour markets in australia individual characteristics personal circumstances and local labour markets there has been a growing awareness that the issue of labour market disadvantage is substantially greater than merely considering unemployment and the ability to find a job there is an increasing l

extending employability or solving employers recruitment problems demand led approaches as an instrument of labour market policy for years labour market policy in the uk has been dominated by activation measures that seek to increase employment levels among the unemployed this supply side focus emphasises individual charac

banking and back loading emission permits in this article we focus on the so called back loading policy adopted by the european commission to increase the carbon market price this environmental measure consists of removing a share of the allowances allocated for a given period in order to reallocate some or all of them later on to analyze the impact of the permits back loading we determine the co2 price equilibrium with and without the policy measure considering not only the market for permits but also the output market of regulated sectors we propose a two period model where the market for permits is perfectly competitive and the output market can be either competitive or oligopolistic first we define the condition under which banking from one period to another is optimal this condition that is the absence of arbitrage opportunities aoa depends not only from the period initial allocation but also on production market fundamentals when this condition is satisfied the market for emission is shown intertemporally efficient second we point out that the back loading measure may create inefficiencies or leave unaffected the permits price if it alters the aoa