optimal simple monetary and fiscal rules under limited asset market participation the combination of limited asset market participation and consumption habits generates indeterminacy for empirically plausible calibrations of a business cycle model characterized by price and nominal wage rigidities equilibrium determinacy is restored by demand management policies based on simple fiscal rules in this regard fiscal control of nominal income growth is particularly effective in addition the complementarity between the taylor rule and the fiscal feedback on nominal income growth produces relatively large welfare gains limiting both aggregate and intragroup volatilities

how does parental leave affect fertility and return to work evidence from two natural experiments this paper analyzes the effects of changes in the duration of paid job protected parental leave on mothers higher order fertility and postbirth labor market careers identification is based on a major austrian reform increasing the duration of parental leave from one year to two years for any child born on or after july 1 1990 we find that mothers who give birth to their first child immediately after the reform have more second children than prereform mothers and that extended parental leave significantly reduces return to work employment and earnings also decrease in the short run but not in the long run fertility and work responses vary across the population in ways suggesting that both cash transfers and job protection are relevant increasing parental leave for a future child increases fertility strongly but leaves short run postbirth careers relatively unaffected partially reversing the 1990 extension a second 1996 reform improves employment and earnings while compressing the time between births

differences in social capital between 54 western european regions beugelsdijk s and van schaik t 2005 differences in social capital between 54 western european regions regional studies 39 1053 1064 based on the extant literature a newly developed index measuring social capital at the regional level in europe is presented it is shown that there are large regional differences on this social capital index it was tested if higher scores on this social capital index correlate with higher levels of economic development and regional economic growth in 54 western european regions though further research is required these preliminary results suggest a positive relationship exists between social capital and regional economic development the paper concludes with suggestions for future empirical research

intra household allocation of parental leave we introduce childcare sharing in a collective model of household behavior to investigate which factors make spouses increase or decrease their share of parental leave the concern about future consumption motivates parents to invest in their human capital and to limit their leave duration using relative income and the age difference between spouses as distribution factors we cannot reject pareto efficiency in childcare sharing higher relative incomes and larger age differences shift the conditional leave allocation towards the relatively poorer and younger partner respectively households with higher total income purchase more professional childcare

cyclical effects of government s employment and goods purchases distinguishing between the goods purchase and employee compensation components of government spending is important shocks to government goods purchases and shocks to government employment have the opposite effects on private output private employment and private investment moreover with this distinction in place quantitative analysis reveals that government spending is no longer a significant driving source of the u s business cycle on the contrary the components of government spending are procyclical in the u s data primarily because of their positive responses to the output fluctuations generated by technology shocks copyright 1998 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

optimal fiscal feedback on debt in an economy with nominal rigidities we examine the impact of different degrees of fiscal feedback on debt in an economy with nominal rigidities where monetary policy is optimal we look at the extent to which different degrees of fiscal feedback enhances or detracts from the ability of the monetary authorities to stabilise output and inflation using an objective function derived from utility we find the optimal level of fiscal feedback to be small there is a clear discontinuity in the behaviour of monetary policy and welfare either side of this optimal level as the extent of fiscal feedback increases optimal monetary policy becomes less active because fiscal feedback tends to deflate inflationary shocks however this fiscal stabilisation is less efficient than monetary policy and so welfare declines in contrast if fiscal feedback falls below some critical value either the model becomes indeterminate or optimal monetary policy becomes strongly passive and this passive monetary policy leads to a sharp deterioration in welfare

the taylor principle fights back part ii abstract the existing literature holds that the taylor principle often leads to indeterminacy in new keynesian models that allow for capital accumulation and limited asset market participation this conclusion is special however to the case of continuous full employment when the assumption of perfect wage flexibility is relaxed very slightly so that the labor market clears quickly but not instantaneously determinacy is the norm the threat of indeterminacy is limited to a tiny irrelevant corner of the parameter space where the elasticity of labor supply is unusually high and real wage adjustment is unbelievably fast everywhere else the taylor principle guarantees a unique rational expectations equilibrium the dramatic difference in results reflects the sensitivity of the monetary transmission mechanism to the speed of adjustment in the labor market

government spending shocks and rule of thumb consumers with steady state inequality in the body of literature concerning fiscal policy a central result is that government spending might stimulate private consumption because only some households save while others spend their entire income each period although such heterogeneity naturally causes inequality this complication is commonly avoided by assuming that transfers redistribute steady state wealth i show that this steady state assumption drives short run results without redistribution the equilibrium is indeterminate and the labor market structure that is imposed to support the expansive result is theoretically inconsistent on a more positive note i propose a labor market formulation under which the expansive effects of government spending might arise

rule of thumb consumers productivity and hours in this paper we study the transmission mechanism of productivity shocks in a model with rule of thumb consumers in the literature this nancial friction has been studied only with reference to scal shocks we show that the presence of rule of thumb consumers is also very helpful in accounting for recent empirical evidence on productivity shocks rule of thumb agents together with nominal and real rigidities play an important role in reproducing the negative response of hours and the delayed responses of output and

endogenous growth decline in social capital and expansion of market activities abstract we model in an endogenous growth set up the hypotheses that the expansion of market activities weakens social capital formation and that firms can invest in formal mechanisms of control and enforcement to substitute for social capital trust work ethics honesty the model shows that the economy tends to grow faster when it is relatively poorer in social capital and that perpetual growth can be consistent with the progressive erosion of social capital these results may help to reconcile putnam s claim that social capital has declined in the u s with the satisfactory growth performance of the u s over the same period

vector autoregressions and reduced form representations of dsge models abstract the performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models is often tested against estimated vars this requires that the data generating process consistent with the dsge theoretical model has a finite order var representation this paper discusses the assumptions needed for a finite order var p representation of a dsge model to exist when a var p is only an approximation to the exact infinite order var the truncated var p may return largely incorrect estimates of the impulse response function the results do not hinge on small sample bias or on incorrect identification assumptions but the bias introduced by truncation can lead to bias in the identification of the structural shocks identification strategies that work in the exact var representation perform poorly in the truncated var

worktime regulations and spousal labor supply we study interdependencies in spousal labor supply by exploiting the design of the french workweek reduction which introduced exogenous variation in one s spouse s labor supply at constant earnings treated employees work on average two hours less per week husbands of treated women respond by reducing their labor supply by about half an hour consistent with substantial leisure complementarity and specifically cut the non usual component of their workweek leaving usual hours unchanged women s response to their husband s treatment is instead weak and rarely statistically significant possibly due to heavier constraints in the organization of their workweek

parental leave a policy evaluation of the swedish daddy month reform abstract many governments are making attempts to increase fathers share of parental leave in order to correct for unequal labor market outcomes using swedish data we ask whether fathers can be encouraged to take more parental leave in order to mitigate the negative consequences of mothers career interruptions the unique data stem from a reform of parental leave resulting in a clean natural experiment data comprise all children born before control group and after treatment group the date of implementation of the reform in cohorts of up to 27 000 newborns mothers and fathers we find strong short term effects of the incentives on male parental leave but no behavioral effects in the household fathers in the treatment group do not take larger shares of the leave taken for care of sick children which is our measure for household work we also investigate a second data set on fathers and mothers long term wages and employment without finding evidence for substantial effects of the reform

social capital access and entrepreneurship we investigate the effect of social capital access on entrepreneurship social capital helps entrepreneurs to overcome resource constraints this is especially important in small communities where we often see a lack of market oriented institutions such as venture capital firms entrepreneurs gain access to social capital via club memberships combining differences in the number of individual club memberships with differences in the importance of social capital across communities we identify a causal small community mark up effect of individual club memberships on entrepreneurship assuming that unobserved heterogeneity that might influence both the individual s selection into clubs and the occupational choice to be an entrepreneur is independent of community size we find that the effect of club membership on the propensity to be an entrepreneur is 2 6 percentage points larger in small communities than in large communities robustness tests support the validity of our identifying assumption and results

fiscal policy and monetary integration in europe fiscal policy economists policy makers and the media often argue that the maastricht treaty and the stability and growth pact make it difficult for governments of emu countries to stabilize their economies with appropriate fiscal policy and to provide adequate public investment our empirical analysis offers little support to this view discretionary budget deficits have actually become more counter cyclical in emu countries after the maastricht treaty as well as in the other eu and non eu industrialized countries we study and while public investment has declined recently in emu countries a similar tendency is apparent in other countries and started well before the maastricht treaty was signed jordi gali and roberto perotti

does unemployment insurance crowd out spousal labor supply previous research on unemployment insurance ui has emphasized the program s effect on individual search behavior this state contingent income may also reduce the labor supply of family members during the unemployment spell we investigate this question within the context of wives labor supply responses to their husbands unemployment spells we find strong crowdout of this form of family self insurance our estimates imply that for each dollar of ui receipt wives earn up to 73 cents less the reduction in spousal hours of work is over 40 as large as previous estimates of the effect of ui on search time of husbands

effective tax rates in macroeconomics cross country estimates of tax rates on factor incomes and consumption abstract this paper proposes a method for computing tax rates using national accounts and revenue statistics using this method we construct time series of tax rates for large industrial countries the method identifies the revenue raised by different taxes at the general government level and defines aggregate measures of the corresponding tax bases this method yields estimates of effective tax rates on factor incomes and consumption consistent with the tax distortions faced by a representative agent in a general equilibrium framework these tax rates compare favorably with existing estimates of marginal tax rates and highlight important international differences in tax policy

the general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy estimates for the euro area abstract this paper describes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model featuring a fraction of non ricardian agents in order to estimate the effects of fiscal policy in the euro area the model takes into account distortionary taxation on labor and capital income and on consumption while expenditures are broken down into purchases of goods and services compensation of public employees and transfers to households a newly computed quarterly data set of fiscal variables is used our results point to the prevalence of mild keynesian effects of public expenditures in particular although innovations in fiscal policy variables tend to be rather persistent government purchases of goods and services and compensations for public employees have small and short lived expansionary effects on private consumption while innovations in transfers to households show a slightly more sizeable and lasting effect the effects are more significant on the revenue side decreases in labor income and consumption tax rates have sizeable effects on consumption and output while a reduction in capital income tax favors investment and output in the medium run finally our estimates suggest that fiscal policy variables contribute little to the cyclical variability of the main macro variables

public and private sector wages interactions in a general equilibrium model it is common wisdom that public sector wages are not determined in the same way as private sector wages at the same time the empirical evidence available for oecd countries finds a strong positive correlation between public and private sector wages in this paper we develop a model that is consistent with a political economy view of the determination of public sector wages and employment while being consistent with the said empirical evidence public finance constraints are crucial in booms governments expand employment and wages while in downturns lack of tax revenues forces the government to cut back the wage bill

constructing and estimating a realistic optimizing model of monetary policy abstract a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model with real and nominal both price and wage rigidities succeeds in capturing some key nominal features of u s business cycles additive technology shocks as well as multiplicative shocks are introduced and shown to be crucial monetary policy is specified as an interest rate targeting rule following developments in the structural vector autoregression var literature the interaction between real and nominal rigidities is essential to reproduce the liquidity effect of monetary policy the model is estimated by maximum likelihood on u s data and its fit is comparable to that of an unrestricted first order var besides producing reasonable impulse responses and second moments this model replicates a feature of u s business cycles never captured by previous research with dsge models that an increase in interest rates predicts a decrease in output two to six quarters in the future

the effect of child care costs on married women s labor force participation the effect of child care costs on the probability that married women with children will participate in the labor market is examined child care costs are estimated using a generalized tobit specification corrected for selection estimates of a structural probit model of labor force participation provide evidence to support the prediction that increased child care costs lower the probability of participation it is also shown that the lower rate of labor force participation among mothers of preschoolers is entirely the result of the higher child care costs faced by these women and endogeneity of the number of young children in the participation equation copyright 1992 by mit press

residential mobility and social capital abstract this paper empirically investigates the role of social capital in households residential mobility behavior by considering its spatial dimension this study focuses on a household s social ties with people living nearby which we refer to as its local social capital local social capital may deter residential mobility because the resources stemming from them are location specific and will be less valuable if a household moves we conjecture that a household s possession of local social capital has a negative effect on its residential mobility and this negative effect of local social capital may be stronger on long distance mobility than on short distance mobility our empirical investigation is based on data from the panel study of income dynamics we obtain evidence which is supportive of these conjectures

peer effects in program participation the influence of peers could play an important role in the take up of social programs however estimating peer effects has proven challenging given the problems of reflection correlated unobservables and endogenous group membership we overcome these identification issues in the context of paid paternity leave in norway using a regression discontinuity design our approach differs from existing literature which attempts to measure peer effects by exploiting random assignment to peer groups in contrast we study peer effects in naturally occurring peer groups but exploit random variation in the price of a social program for a subset of individuals fathers of children born after april 1 1993 in norway were eligible for one month of governmental paid paternity leave while fathers of children born before this cutoff were not there is a sharp increase in fathers taking paternity leave immediately after the reform with take up rising from 3 to 35 while this quasirandom variation changed the cost of paternity leave for some fathers and not others it did not directly affect the cost for the father s coworkers or brothers therefore any effect on the brother or the coworker can be attributed to the influence of the peer father in their network our key findings on peer effects are four fold first we find strong evidence for substantial peer effects of program participation in both workplace and family networks coworkers and brothers are 11 and 15 percentage points respectively more likely to take paternity leave if their peer father was induced to take up leave by the reform second the most likely mechanism is information transmission about costs and benefits including increased knowledge of how an employer will react third there is essential heterogeneity in the size of the peer effect depending on the strength of ties between peers highlighting the importance of duration intensity and frequency of social interactions fourth the estimated peer effect gets amplified over time with each subsequent birth exhibiting a snowball effect as the original peer father s influence cascades through a firm our findings demonstrate that peer effects can lead to long run equilibrium participation rates which are substantially higher than would otherwise be expected

the fiscal state dependent effects of capital income tax cuts abstract using the post wwii data of u s federal corporate income tax changes within a smooth transition var this paper finds that the output effect of capital income tax cuts is government debt dependent it is less expansionary when debt is high than when it is low to explore the mechanisms that can drive this fiscal state dependent tax effect the paper uses a dsge model with regime switching fiscal policy and finds that a capital income tax cut is stimulative to the extent that it is unlikely to result in a future fiscal adjustment as government debt increases to a sufficiently high level the probability of future fiscal adjustments starts rising and the expansionary effects of a capital income tax cut can diminish substantially whether the expected adjustments are through a policy reversal or a consumption tax increase also a capital income tax cut need not always have large revenue feedback effects as suggested in the literature

limited asset market participation and the consumption real exchange rate anomaly under efficient consumption risk sharing as assumed in standard international business cycle models a country s aggregate consumption rises relative to foreign consumption when the country s real exchange rate depreciates yet empirically relative consumption and the real exchange rate are essentially uncorrelated i show that this consumption real exchange rate anomaly can be explained by a simple model in which a subset of households trade in complete financial markets while the remaining households lead hand to mouth htm lives htm behavior also generates greater volatility of the real exchange rate and of net exports which likewise brings the model closer to the data

the rise of risk based pricing of mortgage interest rates in italy abstract this paper assesses how much mortgage interest rates in italy are priced on credit risk as proxied by the probability of household mortgage delinquency estimated using the eu silc database owing to data availability we restrict the analysis of mortgage pricing to italian households consistent with the more widespread use of credit scoring estimates indicate that italian lenders have increasingly priced mortgage interest rates on household credit risk for mortgages granted between 2000 and 2007 we find that a 1 point increase in the probability of default is associated with a 21 basis point rise in mortgage interest rates lower than the 38 basis point premium edelberg 2006 estimated for the us at the end of the 1990s

employment protection and labor productivity abstract current theoretical predictions of how employment protection affects firm productivity are ambiguous in this paper i study the effect of employment protection rules on labor productivity using swedish register data a reform of employment protection rules in 2001 enabled small firms with fewer than eleven employees to exempt two workers from the seniority rules i treat this reform as a natural experiment my results indicate that increased labor market flexibility increases labor productivity this increase is explained by total factor productivity and capital intensity rather than the educational level of workers

efficient intra household allocations a general characterization and empirical tests the neoclassical theory of demand applies to individuals yet in empirical work it is usually taken as valid for households with many members this paper explores what the theory of individuals implies for households that have more than one member we make minimal assumptions about how the individual members of the household resolve conflicts all we assume is that however decisions are made outcomes are efficient we refer to this as the collective setting we show that in the collective setting household demands must satisfy a symmetry and rank condition on the slutsky matrix we also present some further results on the effects on demands of variables that do not modify preferences but that do affect how decisions are made we apply our theory to a series of surveys of household expenditures from canada the tests of the usual symmetry conditions are rejected for two person households but not for one person households we also show that income pooling is rejected for two person households we then test for our collective setting conditions on the couples data none of the collective setting restrictions are rejected we conclude that the collective setting is a plausible and tractable next step to take in the analysis of household behavior

economics and identity this paper considers how identity a person s sense of self affects economic outcomes we incorporate the psychology and sociology of identity into an economic model of behavior in the utility function we propose identity is associated with different social categories and how people in these categories should behave we then construct a simple game theoretic model showing how identity can affect individual interactions the paper adapts these models to gender discrimination in the workplace the economics of poverty and social exclusion and the household division of labor in each case the inclusion of identity substantively changes conclusions of previous economic analysis

fiscal policy profits and investment this paper evaluates the effects of fiscal policy on investment using a panel of oecd countries we find a sizeable negative effect of public spending and in particular of its wage component on profits and on business investment this result is consistent with different theoretical models in which government employment creates wage pressure for the private sector various types of taxes also have negative effects on profits but interestingly the effects of government spending on investment are larger than those of taxes our results can explain the so called non keynesian i e expansionary effects of fiscal adjustments jel e22 e62

the savers spenders theory of fiscal policy the macroeconomic analysis of fiscal policy is usually based on one of two canonical models the barro ramsey model of infinitely lived families or the diamond samuelson model of overlapping generations this paper argues that neither model is satisfactory and suggests an alternative in the proposed model some consumers plan ahead for themselves and their descendants while others live paycheck to paycheck this model is easier to reconcile with the essential facts about consumer behavior and wealth accumulation and it yields some new and surprising conclusions about fiscal policy

tax reform and labour market performance in the euro area a simulation based analysis using the new area wide model in this paper we employ a calibrated two country version of the new area wide model nawm developed at the european central bank to examine the potential benefits and spillovers of reducing labour market distortions caused by euro area tax structures our analysis shows that lowering tax distortions to levels prevailing in the united states would result in an increase in hours worked and output by more than 10 at the same time tax reductions would have positive spillovers to the euro area s trade partners bolstering the case for tax reforms from a global perspective finally we illustrate that in the presence of heterogeneous households distributional effects may be of importance when gauging the impact of tax reforms

direct and cross effects of employment protection the case of parental childcare i examine whether employment protection affects the willingness of working parents to provide childcare using a reform that made it easier for employers to dismiss workers in small firms i find that softer employment protection reduces the use of temporary parental leave among directly treated fathers in addition i find that households respond to an increase in the dismissal risk by reducing temporary parental leave for the indirectly treated spouse spousal labor supply can thus serve as informal insurance against adverse income shocks

bowling alone a review essay abstract this paper is a critical review of robert putnam s influential analysis of social capital in america bowling alone the review argues that bowling alone reflects many of the strengths and weaknesses of the social capital literature like this literature bowling alone describes a remarkable number of facts concerning community life in america at the same time the book suffers from many of the conceptual problems and empirical weaknesses that have plagued the social capital literature i conclude that bowling alone does not succeed in establishing the importance of social capital in understanding various socioeconomic phenomena it purports to explain

causal parameters and policy analysis in economics a twentieth century retrospective the major contributions of twentieth century econometrics to knowledge were the definition of causal parameters within well defined economic models in which agents are constrained by resources and markets and causes are interrelated the analysis of what is required to recover causal parameters from data the identification problem and clarification of the role of causal parameters in policy evaluation and in forecasting the effects of policies never previously experienced this paper summarizes the development of these ideas by the cowles commission the response to their work by structural econometricians and var econometricians and the response to structural and var econometrics by calibrators advocates of natural and social experiments and by nonparametric econometricians and statisticians this paper considers the definition and identification of causal parameters in economics and their role in econometric policy analysis it assesses different research programs designed to recover causal parameters from data at the beginning of this century economic theory was mainly intuitive and empirical support for it was largely anecdotal at the end of the century economics has a rich array of formal models and a high quality database empirical regularities motivate theory in many areas of economics and data are routinely used to test theory many economic theories have been developed as measurement frameworks to suggest what data should be collected and how they should be interpreted econometric theory was developed to analyze and interpret economic data most econometric theory adapts methods originally developed in statistics the major exception to this rule is the econometric analysis of the identification problem and the companion analyses of structural equations causality and economic policy evaluation although an economist did not invent the phrase correlation does not imply causation 1 economists clari

european inflation dynamics abstract we provide evidence on the fit of the new phillips curve npc for the euro area over the period 1970 1998 and use it as a tool to compare the characteristics of european inflation dynamics with those observed in the u s we also analyze the factors underlying inflation inertia by examining the cyclical behavior of marginal costs as well as that of its two main components namely labor productivity and real wages some of the findings can be summarized as follows a the npc fits euro area data very well possibly better than u s data b the degree of price stickiness implied by the estimates is substantial but in line with survey evidence and u s estimates c inflation dynamics in the euro area appear to have a stronger forward looking component i e less inertia than in the u s d labor market frictions as manifested in the behavior of the wage markup appear to have played a key role in shaping the behavior of marginal costs and consequently inflation in europe

a note on the theory and measurement of trust in explaining differences in economic growth this paper takes issue with the trend to attribute differences in economic growth rates to differences in interpersonal trust i discuss the world values survey wvs measure that is used to operationalise trust at the macro level i hypothesise that there is a mismatch between the theoretical argument and the empirical operationalisation of trust instead of measuring trust the wvs measure may instead proxy the well functioning of institutions i provide circumstantial evidence for this thesis by a principal components analysis of trust and institutions and a robustness test of zak and knack s 2001 trust and growth economic journal vol 111 295 321 seminal study on trust and economic growth

fiscal policy in the new neoclassical synthesis we analytically derive the cyclical effects of fiscal policy shocks in a new neoclassical synthesis model price stickiness has the consequence that a rise in government demand affects labor demand while at the same time the usual wealth effect boosts labor supply the strength of the demand effect depends on the response of the real interest rate governed by the monetary policy regime when the central bank controls money growth fiscal expansions are deflationary and might even be contractionary whereas output wages and inflation can increase when the rise in the real interest rate is dampened by an interest rate rule however price stickiness alone is not sufficient to explain a rise in consumption as predicted by keynesian theory

repeated games played by overlapping generations of players the present paper tries to explain cooperative behaviour in an organization run by a sequence of long but finitely lived agents we show that the folk theorem holds for infinitely repeated games with overlapping generations of finitely lived players any mutually beneficial outcome can approximately be sustained if the player s life span and the overlapping periods are long enough the result is stronger than the usual folk theorems in that it employs no assumption on the stage game such as the full dimensionality of payoff set or multiplicity of equilibria

identification of endogenous social effects the reflection problem this paper examines the reflection problem that arises when a researcher observing the distribution of behaviour in a population tries to infer whether the average behaviour in some group influences the behaviour of the individuals that comprise the group it is found that inference is not possible unless the researcher has prior information specifying the compisition of reference groups if this information is available the prospects for inference depend critically on the population relationship between the variables defining reference groups and those directly affecting outcomes inference is difficult to implossible if these variables are functionally dependent or are statistically independent the prospects are better if the variables defining reference groups and those directly affecting outcomes are moderately related in the population

fiscal policy in general equilibrium this paper studies four classic fiscal policy experiments within a quantitatively restricted neoclassical model the authors main findings are as follows 1 permanent changes in government purchases can lead to short run and long run output multipliers that exceed one 2 permanent changes in government purchases induce larger effects than temporary changes 3 the financing decision is quantitatively more important than the resource cost of changes in government purchases and 4 public investment has dramatic effects on private output and investment these findings stem from important dynamic interactions of capital and labor absent in earlier equilibrium analyses of fiscal policy copyright 1993 by american economic association

can public spending boost private consumption this paper analyses the effects on private consumption from an increase in productive and unproductive public spending a new keynesian model incorporating price and wage rigidities monetary policy and various fiscal rules is developed and estimated using bayesian techniques to capture the key cyclical characteristics of the us economy we find that price and wage rigidities along with a positive shock to the part of public spending that is productive are suficient to boost private consumption moreover we show that this initial positive reaction of private consumption is adequate to create a positive present value consumption multiplier for more than five years finally we show that our main results remain robust to changes in the monetary rule and the various methods of deficit financing

career interruptions and subsequent earnings a reexamination using swedish data this paper reexamines the link between career interruptions and subsequent wages using a rich new swedish dataset we are able to disaggregate time out of work into several components regressing

fiscal policy pricing frictions and monetary accommodation this paper empirically investigates whether the theoretical conditions for government expenditure expansions to be effective hold for the data we ask whether the necessary conditions for fiscal effectiveness are relevant on average and in special circumstances that capture features of the recent crisis fiscal policy can be an effective countercyclical tool if monetary policy accommodates the fiscal expansion if expectations about future output growth and inflation are constant and if structural relationships are invariant to the policy change recent expansions are unlikely to produce large output multipliers or have important debt or inflation effects credible deficit and debt reduction schemes can produce sizeable output multipliers fabio canova and evi pappa

dynamic scoring a back of the envelope guide abstract this paper uses the neoclassical growth model to examine the extent to which a tax cut pays for itself through higher economic growth the model yields simple expressions for the steady state feedback effect of a tax cut the feedback is surprisingly large for standard parameter values half of a capital tax cut is self financing the paper considers various generalizations of the basic model including elastic labor supply general production technologies departures from infinite horizons and non neoclassical production settings it also examines how the steady state results are modified when one considers the transition path to the steady state