convergence in adaptation to climate change evidence from high temperatures and mortality 1900 2004 author s barreca a clay k deschenes o greenstone m shapiro js abstract this paper combines panel data on monthly mortality rates of us states and daily temperature variables for over a century 1900 2004 to explore the regional evolution of the temperature mortality relationship and documents two key findings first the impact of extreme heat on mortality is notably smaller in states that more frequently experience extreme heat second the difference in the heat mortality relationship between hot and cold states declined over 1900 2004 though it persisted through 2004 continuing differences in the mortality consequences of hot days suggests that health motivated adaptation to climate change may be slow and costly around the world

central bank transparency and cross border banking abstract we analyze the effect of central bank transparency on cross border bank activities based on a panel gravity model for cross border bank claims for 21 home and 47 destination countries from 1998 to 2010 we find strong empirical evidence that a rise in central bank transparency in the destination country on average increases cross border claims using interaction models we find that the positive effect of central bank transparency on cross border claims is only significant if the central bank is politically independent and operates in a stable economic environment central bank transparency and credibility are thus considered complements by banks investing abroad

climate change and birth weight there is a growing consensus that emissions of greenhouse gases due to human activity will alter the earth s climate most notably by causing temperatures precipitation levels and weather variability to increase the design of optimal climate change mitigation policies requires estimates of the health and other benefits of reductions in greenhouse gases current evidence on the magnitude of the direct and indirect impacts however is considered insufficient for reliable conclusions a j mcmichael et al 2003 1 in addition to the overall predicted warming trend one important feature of many global climate change forecasts is an increased incidence of very high and low temperatures to provide evidence of the potential benefits of greenhouse gas reductions this paper documents whether the temperature variation predicted to be part of climate change including extreme high and low temperatures historically has had negative health consequences through its effect on babies while in utero using individual level data on more than 37 1 million births we find that exposure to extreme hot temperatures during pregnancy leads to lower birth weight we combine this

weather variations and international trade in this paper i investigate the effect of weather variations in the exporter and importer countries separately as well as a the difference between weather variations in both countries on bilateral trade flows the analysis is done at the country sectoral and product levels worldwide and over the 1992 2014 period i find a negative effect of temperature variations in the exporter country and in the difference between exporter and importer countries on bilateral trade at the country level at the product level both negative and positive effects arise but the negative effect of temperature dominates the temperature effects are on the agricultural and manufacturing sectors especially in the textile and metals sectors i show that possible channels are the impact of temperature on output and labour productivity the negative impacts are larger in exporter countries that are closer to the equator that have lower quality of institutions and that export to more remote countries if countries are able to adapt to climate change the long term effects of temperature variations should be lower than the contemporaneous effect nevertheless my results on the long term effects analysis do not support this hypothesis suggesting no or very low adaptation moreover the negative effect of temperature is persistent and cumulative through several years after the temperature shock concerning precipitation variation effects they are found mainly at the product level with the positive effect dominating for the affected products

the bubble game an experimental study of speculation we propose a bubble game that involves sequential trading of an asset commonly known to be valueless because no trader is ever sure to be last in the market sequence the game allows for a bubble at the nash equilibrium when there is no cap on the maximum price we run experiments both with and without a price cap structural estimation of behavioral game theory models suggests that quantal responses and analogy based expectations are important drivers of speculation

do depositors punish banks for bad behavior market discipline deposit insurance and banking crises this paper empirically investigates two issues largely unexplored by the literature on market discipline we evaluate the interaction between market discipline and deposit insurance and the impact of banking crises on market discipline we focus on the experiences of argentina chile and mexico during the 1980s and 1990s we find that depositors discipline banks by withdrawing deposits and by requiring higher interest rates deposit insurance does not appear to diminish the extent of market discipline aggregate shocks affect deposits and interest rates during crises regardless of bank fundamentals and investors responsiveness to bank risk taking increases in the aftermath of crises

the travels of a bank deposit in turbulent times the importance of deposit insurance design for cross border deposits we examine the impact of the existence on an explicit deposit insurance di scheme and its design features on bilateral cross border deposits cbd in a gravity model setting we find that both the absolute quality of a country s di and its relative quality vis a vis other countries di generally affect depositor behavior however during systemic banking crises cross border depositors primarily seek countries with the best di schemes similarly during the 2008 2009 great financial crisis the emergency actions taken by the governments which supply and maintain these safe havens have led to substantial relocations of cbd jel f34 g18

financial expertise as an arms race we show that firms intermediating trade have incentives to overinvest in financial expertise in our model expertise improves firms ability to estimate value when trading a security expertise creates asymmetric information which under normal circumstances works to the advantage of the expert as it deters opportunistic bargaining by counterparties this advantage is neutralized in equilibrium however by offsetting investments by competitors moreover when volatility rises the adverse selection created by expertise triggers breakdowns in liquidity destroying gains to trade and thus the benefits that firms hope to gain through high levels of expertise

cross border banking credit access and the financial crisis abstract we study the sensitivity of credit supply to bank financial conditions in 16 emerging european countries before and during the financial crisis we use survey data on 10 701 applicant and non applicant firms that enable us to disentangle effects driven by positive and negative shocks to the banking system from demand shocks that may vary across lenders we find strong evidence that firms access to credit was affected by changes in the financial conditions of their banks during the crisis firms were more credit constrained if they were dealing with banks that experienced a decline in equity and tier 1 capital as well as losses on financial assets we also find that access to credit reflects the balance sheet conditions of foreign parent banks the effect of positive and negative shocks to a bank is greater for riskier firms and firms with fewer tangible assets

financial crises and the composition of cross border lending abstract we examine the composition and drivers of cross border bank lending between 1995 and 2012 distinguishing between syndicated and non syndicated loans we show that on balance sheet syndicated loan exposures which account for almost one third of total cross border loan exposures increased during the global financial crisis due to large drawdowns on credit lines extended before the crisis our empirical analysis of the drivers of cross border loan exposures in a large bilateral dataset leads to three main results first banks with lower levels of capital favor syndicated over other kinds of cross border loans second borrower country characteristics such as level of development economic size and capital account openness are less important in driving syndicated than non syndicated loan activity suggesting a diversification motive for syndication third information asymmetries between lender and borrower countries became more binding for both types of cross border lending activity during the recent crisis

temperature shocks and welfare costs abstract this paper examines the welfare implications of rising temperatures using a standard var we empirically show that a temperature shock has a sizable negative and statistically significant impact on tfp output and labor productivity we rationalize these findings within a production economy featuring long run temperature risk in the model macro aggregates drop in response to a temperature shock consistent with the novel evidence in the data such adverse effects are long lasting over a 50 year horizon a one standard deviation temperature shock lowers both cumulative output and labor productivity growth by 1 4 percentage points based on the model we also show that temperature risk is associated with non negligible welfare costs which amount to 18 4 of the agent s lifetime utility and grow exponentially with the size of the impact of temperature on tfp finally we show that faster adaptation to temperature shocks results in lower welfare costs these welfare benefits become substantially higher in the presence of permanent improvements in the speed of adaptation

what do we learn from the weather the new climate economy literature a rapidly growing body of research applies panel methods to examine how temperature precipitation and windstorms influence economic outcomes these studies focus on changes in weather realizations over time within a given spatial area and demonstrate impacts on agricultural output industrial output labor productivity energy demand health conflict and economic growth among other outcomes by harnessing exogenous variation over time within a given spatial unit these studies help credibly identify i the breadth of channels linking weather and the economy ii heterogeneous treatment effects across different types of locations and iii nonlinear effects of weather variables this paper reviews the new literature with two purposes first we summarize recent work providing a guide to its methodologies datasets and findings second we consider applications of the new literature including insights for the damage function within models that seek to assess the potential economic effects of future climate change jel c51 d72 o13 q51 q54

uncertainty and cross border banking flows abstract while global uncertainty measured by the vix has proven to be a robust global push factor of international capital flows there has been no systematic study assessing the role of uncertainty in driving bilateral capital flows this paper examines the effects of higher country specific uncertainty on cross border banking flows using data from the bank for international settlements locational banking statistics the bilateral structure of this data allows disentangling supply factors from demand factors thereby helping identify the effect of higher uncertainty on cross border banking flows from other confounding factors the results of this analysis suggest that i uncertainty in a source country domestic economy is both a lender specific push and pull factor that robustly predicts a decrease in outflows cross border lending and inflows cross border borrowing ii the decline in cross border borrowing is larger than the decline in cross border lending that is the net cross border position of the banking sector increases iii despite a decline in cross border bank lending in the absolute sense the share of cross border bank lending in total bank lending increases suggesting a portfolio rebalancing iv this rebalancing occurs only when banks are lending to borrowers in advanced economies but not to those in emerging market economies

interest rate pass through in the emu new evidence from nonlinear cointegration techniques for fully harmonized data this study puts the monetary transmission process in the eurozone between 2003 and 2011 under closer scrutiny for this purpose we investigate the interest rate pass through from money market to various loan rates for up to twelve countries of the european monetary union applying different cointegration techniques we first test for a long run relationship between loan rates and the euro overnight index average eonia based on these findings we allow for different nonlinear patterns for short run dynamics of loan rates our investigation contributes to the literature in mainly two ways on the one hand we use fully harmonized data stemming from the ecb s mfi interest rate statistics in addition we consider smooth transition models as an extension of conventional threshold models our results point to considerable differences in the size of the pass through with respect to either different loan rates or countries in the majority of cases the pass through is incomplete and the dynamics of loans adjustment are different for reductions and hikes of money market rates

does trade cause capital to flow evidence from historical rainfall abstract we use a historical quasi experiment to estimate the causal effect of trade on capital flows we argue that fluctuations in regional rainfall within the ottoman empire capture the exogenous variation in exports from the empire to germany france and the u k during the period of 1859 1913 the identification is based on the following historical facts first only surplus production was allowed to be exported from the empire provisionistic policy second different products grown in different regions were subject to variation in regional rainfall third different bundles of products were exported to germany france and the u k by the empire using the export bundle weighted regional rainfall as an instrument for ottoman exports to each country our instrumental variable regression suggests the following when a given region of the empire received more rainfall than others the resulting surplus production was exported more to countries that historically imported more of those products and this leads to higher foreign investment by those countries in the empire our findings support theories predicting complementarity between trade and finance in which causality runs from trade to capital flows

the geography of trade in goods and asset holdings gravity models have been widely used to describe bilateral trade in goods portes and rey portes r rey h 2005 the determinants of cross border equity flows journal of international economics 65 2 269 296 applied this framework to cross border equity flows and found that distance which proxies information asymmetries is a surprisingly very large barrier to cross border asset trade we adopt a different point of view and explore the complementarity between bilateral trade in goods and bilateral asset holdings in a simultaneous gravity equations framework providing different instruments for both endogenous variables we show that a 10 increase in bilateral trade raises bilateral asset holdings by 6 to 7 the reverse causality is also significant albeit smaller controlling for trade the impact of distance on asset holdings is drastically reduced keywords gravity models international finance international trade simultaneous equations

preemption and rent equalization in the adoption of new technology we study the adoption of a new technology to illustrate the effects of preemption in games of timing we show that the threat of preemption equalizes rents in a duopoly but that this result does not extend to the general oligopoly game if the gain to preemption is sufficiently small then the optimal symmetric outcome which involves late adoption is an equilibrium this contrasts with reinganum s result that in precommitment equilibria there must be diffusion we develop a new and richer formalism for modeling games of timing which permits a continuoustime representation of the limit of discrete time mixed strategy equilibria

learning in crowded markets abstract we present a novel entry game with endogenous information acquisition to study the welfare effects of opacity and competition potential entrants to an opaque market are uncertain about their competitive advantage relative to other investors i e their type they construct optimal costly signals to learn about their types where the marginal cost of learning captures the opacity of the market in general the individually optimal entry and learning decisions are socially suboptimal players over invest in learning and more opaque markets are associated with more crowding nevertheless more opaque markets might still lead to higher welfare by implying a better trade off between the degree of crowding and the total cost of learning similarly decreasing the share of smart investors in the market might also improve welfare however fierce competition is always detrimental to welfare as it leads to more wasteful learning without changing the level of crowding

endogenous information acquisition in coordination games in the context of a beauty contest coordination game in which payoffs 1 depend on the quadratic distance of actions from an unobserved state variable and 2 from the average action players choose how much costly attention to pay to vari 3 ous informative signals each signal has an underlying accuracy how precisely it 4 identifies the state and a clarity how easy it is to understand the unique linear 5 equilibrium has interesting properties the signals which receive attention are the 6 clearest available even if they have poor underlying accuracy the number of sig 7 nals observed falls as the complementarity of players actions rises and if actions 8 are more complementary the information endogenously acquired in equilibrium 9 is more public in nature the consequences of rational inattention constraints on 10

optimal sticky prices under rational inattention this paper presents a model in which price setting firms decide what to pay attention to subject to a constraint on information flow when idiosyncratic conditions are more variable or more important than aggregate conditions firms pay more attention to idiosyncratic conditions than to aggregate conditions when we calibrate the model to match the large average absolute size of price changes observed in micro data prices react fast and by large amounts to idiosyncratic shocks but only slowly and by small amounts to nominal shocks nominal shocks have strong and persistent real effects we use the model to investigate how the optimal allocation of attention and the dynamics of prices depend on the firms environment jel e 3 e5 d8

satellites self reports and submersion exposure to floods in bangladesh abstract a burgeoning climate economy literature has uncovered many effects of changes in temperature and precipitation on economic activity but has made considerably less progress in modeling the effects of other associated phenomena like natural disasters we develop new objective data on floods focusing on bangladesh we show that rainfall and self reported exposure are weak proxies for true flood exposure these data allow us to study adaptation giving accurate measures of both long term averages and short term variation in exposure this is important in studying climate change impacts as people will not only experience new exposures but also experience them differently

the modern history of exchange rate arrangements a reinterpretation we develop a novel system of reclassifying historical exchange rate regimes one key difference between our study and previous classifications is that we employ monthly data on market determined parallel exchange rates going back to 1946 for 153 countries our approach differs from the imf official classification which we show to be only a little better than random it also differs radically from all previous attempts at historical reclassification our classification points to a rethinking of economic performance under alternative exchange rate regimes indeed the breakup of bretton woods had less impact on exchange rate regimes than is popularly believed

what drives international financial flows politics institutions and other determinants abstract this paper uses a large panel of financial flow data from banks to assess how institutions affect international lending first employing a time varying composite institutional quality index in a fixed effects framework the paper shows that institutional improvements are followed by significant increases in international finance second cross sectional models also show a strong effect of initial levels of institutional quality on future bank lending third instrumental variable estimates further show that the historically predetermined component of institutional development is also a significant correlate of international bank inflows the results thus suggest that institutional underdeveloped can explain a significant part of lucas lucas robert e 1990 why doesn t capital flow from rich to poor countries american economic review papers and proceedings 80 2 92 96 1990 paradox of why doesn t capital flow from rich to poor countries the analysis also does a first step towards understanding which institutional features affect international banking

no matter how it is measured income declines with global warming abstract the contemporaneous relationship between temperature and income is important because it enables economists to estimate the economic impact of global warming without assuming a structural model until recently empirical evidence generally suggests that there is a negative relationship between temperature and income and therefore global warming has an adverse impact on economic activity however nordhaus 2006 argues that the temperature income relationship depends on how income is measured we show in this paper that the results of nordhaus 2006 may be due to an omitted variable problem based on a well motivated temperature income model we find that the relationship between temperature and income is not dependent on income measurement our regression results show that the adverse impact of an increase of 1 c in temperature can be as much as a 3 decrease in total income for the g 7 nations therefore our results suggest an aggressive climate mitigation policy

knowing what others know coordination motives in information acquisition we explore how optimal information choices change the predictions of strategic models when a large number of agents play a game with strategic complementarity information choices exhibit complementarity as well if an agent wants to do what others do they want to know what others know this makes heterogeneous beliefs di cult to sustain and may generate multiple equilibria in models with substitutability agents prefer to difierentiate their information choices we use these theoretical results to examine the role of information choice in recent price setting models and to propose modeling techniques that ensure equilibrium uniqueness

the economic impacts of climate change evidence from agricultural output and random fluctuations in weather fisher et al 2012 hereafter fhrs have uncovered coding and data errors in our paper deschenes and greenstone 2007 hereafter dg we acknowledge and are embarrassed by these mistakes we are grateful to fhrs for uncovering them we hope that this reply will also contribute to advancing the literature on the vital question of the impact of climate change on the us agricultural sector fhrs main critiques of dg are as follows i there are errors in the weather data and climate change projections used by dg ii the climate change projections are based on the hadley 2 model and scenarios rather than the more recent hadley 3 model and scenarios iii standard errors are biased due to spatial correlation iv the inclusion of state by year fixed effects does not leave enough weather variation to obtain meaningful estimates of the relationship between agriculture profits and weather v storage and inventory adjustment in response to yield shocks invalidate the use of annual profit data and vi fhrs argue that a better specified hedonic model produces robust estimates unlike the results reported in dg four of these critiques have little basis and we respond to them here in the introduction specifically with respect to ii the more recent daily climate predictions were not available when we wrote dg nevertheless the most important issue is providing the reliable estimates of climate change and in this note we report estimates based on the climate model we used in dg and a more recent one that we gained access to in the meantime iii in the primary table on agricultural profits dg reports two sets of standard errors with the first clustered at the county level and the second based on a variance covariance matrix that accounts for spatial correlation using the method proposed in conley 1999 thus the claim of fhrs 2012 seems overblown nevertheless to ease comparisons of papers in this literature this note will adopt the fhrs convention of reporting estimated standard errors clustered at the county and state levels we find that inference is largely unaffected by the choice between these different assumptions about the variance covariance matrix

effective climate policies in a dynamic north south model abstract the paper develops a two region endogenous growth model with climate change affecting the countries capital stocks negatively we compare two different policies aimed at supporting less developed countries climate mitigation by developed countries which moderates the increase in stock pollution and hence capital depreciation and income transfers in the tradition of development aid under a mild set of assumptions we find that active climate policies are more efficient for developed economies and also remarkably better for developing countries than additional development aid the main reason is the difference between the two policies with respect to their effects on economic growth the results are robust with respect to possible model extensions

one money one market the effect of common currencies on trade currency unions their dramatic effect on international trade a gravity model is used to assess the separate effects of exchange rate volatility and currency unions on international trade the panel data bilateral observations for five years during 1970 90 covering 186 countries includes 300 observations in which both countries use the same currency i find a large positive effect of a currency union on international trade and a small negative effect of exchange rate volatility even after controlling for a host of features including the endogenous nature of the exchange rate regime these effects statistically significant imply that two countries sharing the same currency trade three times as much as they would with different currencies currency unions like the european emu may thus lead to a large increase in international trade with all that that entails andrew rose

the determinants of cross border equity flows abstract we explore a new panel data set on bilateral gross cross border equity flows between 14 countries 1989 1996 we show that a gravity model explains international transactions in financial assets at least as well as goods trade transactions gross transaction flows depend on market size in source and destination country as well as trading costs in which both information and the transaction technology play a role distance proxies some information costs and other variables explicitly represent information transmission an information asymmetry between domestic and foreign investors and the efficiency of transactions the geography of information is the main determinant of the pattern of international transactions while there is weak support in our data for the diversification motive once we control for the informational friction we broaden the scope of our results by presenting some evidence linking the results on equity transactions to equity holdings

climate change green growth and aid allocation to poor countries with serious impacts of climate change looming in a few decades but current poverty still high in the developing world we ask how to spend development aid earmarked for the poor poverty reduction tends to be strongly linked to economic growth but growth impacts the environment and increases co2 emissions so can greener growth that is more climate resilient and less environmentally damaging deliver large scale poverty reduction can aid be used for effective poverty reduction now without affecting carbon emissions substantially we argue that there are bound to be trade offs between emissions reductions and a greener growth on the one hand and growth that is most effective in poverty reduction we argue that development aid earmarked for the poorest countries should only selectively pay attention to climate change and remain focused on fighting current poverty reduction including via economic growth not least as future resilience of these countries and their population will depend on their ability to create wealth and build up human capital now the only use for development aid within the poorest countries for explicit climate related investment ought to be when the investments also contribute to poverty reduction now including for increasing resilience to current impacts of environmental shocks or when the investments done now have serious intertemporal lock in problems so that they have implications also for when climate change bites by 2050 in our conclusions we offer a series of concrete principles to judge development spending

the impact of global warming on agriculture a ricardian analysis reply we measure the economic impact of climate on land prices using cross sectional data on climate farmland prices and other economic and geophysical data for almost 3 000 counties in the united states we find that higher temperatures in all seasons except autumn reduce average farm values while more precipitation outside of autumn increases farm values applying the model to a global warming scenario shows a significantly lower estimated impact of global warming on u s agriculture than the traditional production function approach and in one case suggests that even without co sub 2 fertilization global warming may have economic benefits for agriculture 16 refs 5 figs 5 tabs

why the far distant future should be discounted at its lowest possible rate abstract a critical feature of the distant future is currently unresolvable uncertainty about what will then be the appropriate rate of return on capital to use for discounting this paper shows that there is a well defined sense in which the lowest possible interest rate should be used for discounting the far distant future part of any investment project some implications are discussed for evaluating long term environmental projects or activities like measures to mitigate the possible effects of global climate change

uncertainty and climate change uncertainty is pervasive in analysis of climate change how should economists allow for this and how have they allowed for it this paper reviews both of

the role of regulatory arbitrage in u s banks international lending flows bank level evidence this paper examines how cross border differences in the stringency of bank regulations affect u s banks international activities the analysis relies on a unique bank level dataset on the globally most active u s banks balance sheet as well as their cross border foreign affiliate lending and foreign market entry choices in 82 foreign countries in the 2003 2013 period results show that u s banks are significantly more likely to enter foreign markets with relatively laxer bank capital and disclosure requirements and exit foreign markets with relatively stricter deposit insurance schemes and more restrictions on activities banks substitute away from foreign affiliate lending via subsidiaries in the foreign country towards cross border lending originating from the u s in foreign countries with more powerful and independent bank regulators and limits on activities

europe 1992 issues and prospects for the financial markets financial markets vittorio grilli one potential effect of the integration of european financial markets concerns the geographical location of financial hot spots it is likely that liberalization will tend to promote countries with already large and well developed international financial markets attracting the residents of smaller countries these markets will become larger and more liquid and thus even more appealing it is very unlikely that other european countries could design policies apt to threaten london s supremacy as the main european financial centre while the article focuses on the market for bank deposits similar considerations apply to other financial markets it appears that a large part of cross country bank deposits are explained by country specific factors such as particular institutional arrangements in the areas of capital controls tax regulations and secrecy laws however the relative importance of these factors varies between inter bank deposits and non bank deposits taxation and banking secrecy matter for non bank deposits while the very size of the economy influences inter bank deposits finally imperfect competition and switching costs imply that more intense competition wilt be felt primarily in the market for large deposits small deposit contracts will probably be unaffected by liberalization at least in the short run

climate change and uneven development in this paper using a theoretical model with endogenous capital depreciation we study the effects of climate change and adaptation on long run development we show that climate change affects economic growth depending on climate exposure and adaptation efficiency which are asymmetric between different countries poor countries are likely to be hurt more because of the negative effects of climate change on the rate of depreciation of the assets that represent the engine of growth these asymmetries generally induce growth deficits and unsustainability traps in less developed economies

market discipline by thrift depositors this paper tests for the presence of depositor discipline by examining the effect of depository institutions risk on the pricing and growth of uninsured deposits the study analyzes a large panel of thrifts that includes detailed information on interest rate schedules this information allows the authors to develop a time consistent risk profile for thrifts their empirical findings support the presence of market discipline riskier banks are found to pay higher interest rates but attract smaller amounts of uninsured deposits the authors also find that qualitative results are similar for fully insured deposits although statistical significance is substantially lower

climate policy under sustainable discounted utilitarianism empirical evaluation of policies to mitigate climate change has been largely confined to the application of discounted utilitarianism du du is controversial both due to the conditions through which it is justified and due to its consequences for climate policies where the discounting of future utility gains from present abatement efforts makes it harder for such measures to justify their present costs in this paper we propose sustainable discounted utilitarianism sdu as an alternative principle for evaluation of climate policy unlike undiscounted utilitarianism which always assigns zero relative weight to present utility sdu is an axiomatically based criterion which departs from du by assigning zero weight to present utility if and only if the present is better off than the future using the dice integrated assessment model to run risk analysis we show that it is possible for the future to be worse off than the present along a business as usual development path consequently sdu and du differ and willingness to pay for emissions reductions is sometimes significantly higher under sdu than under du under sdu stringent schedules of emissions reductions increase social welfare even for a relatively high utility discount rate

a regional dynamic general equilibrium model of alternative climate change strategies outcomes and noncooperative equilibria this study finds that cooperative policies show much higher levels of emissions reductions than do noncooperative strategies that there are substantial differences in the levels of controls in both the cooperative and the noncooperative policies among different countries and that high income countries may be the major losers from cooperation jel h41 q4 q2 q20

optimality of debt under flexible information acquisition we study the optimality of debt through the interaction between se curity design and information acquisition an impatient seller designs an asset backed security and a buyer decides whether to buy it to provide liquidity facing dierent securities the buyer has incentives to acquire in formation from dierent aspects of the fundamental which in turn aects security design speci cally the buyer bene ts from information acqui sition at the expense of the seller through adverse selection the seller hence deliberately designs the security to induce the buyer to acquire the information least harmful to the seller s interest since securities can be designed in arbitrary ways the resulting incentive to acquire information is very exible thus we introduce exible information acquisition to capture this interaction we show that debt is uniquely optimal com pared with the security design literature we neither assume monotonicity of the feasible securities nor impose various distributional assumptions on the fundamental or information structures fixed aggregate cash ow and homogeneous information cost are two key factors driving the results jel d86 d82 g32

extreme weather and civil war does drought fuel conflict in somalia through livestock price shocks climate change leads to more frequent and more intense droughts in somalia in a global context weather shocks have been found to perpetuate poverty and fuel civil conflict by relating regional and temporal variations in violent conflict outbreaks and drought incidence and severity we show that this causality is also valid for somalia at the local level we find that livestock price shocks drive drought induced conflicts through reducing the opportunity costs of conflict participation our estimation results indicate that a temperature rise of around 3 2 degree celcius corresponding to the median ipcc scenario for eastern africa by the end of the century would lower cattle prices by about 4 percent and in turn increase the number of violent conflict by about 58 percent hence climate change will further aggravate somalia s security challenges and calls for decisive action to strengthen both drought and conflict resilience especially in pastoralist and agropastoralist livelihoods

modeling climate feedbacks to electricity demand the case of china this paper is an empirical investigation of the effects of climate on the use of electricity by consumers and producers in urban and rural areas within china it takes advantage of an unusual combination of temporal and regional data sets in order to estimate temperature as well as price and income elasticities of electricity demand the estimated positive temperature electric power feedback implies a continually increasing use of energy to produce electric power which in china is primarily based on coal in the absence of countervailing measures this will contribute to increased emissions increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and increases in greenhouse warming

what are cities worth land rents local productivity and the total value of amenities abstract this paper models how to use widely available data on wages and housing costs to infer land rents local productivity and the total value of local amenities in the presence of federal taxes and locally produced nontraded goods i apply the model to u s metropolitan areas with the aid of visually intuitive graphs the results improve measures of productivity and feature large differences in land rents wage and housing cost differences across metropolitan areas are accounted for more by productivity than quality of life differences regressions using individual amenities reveal that the most productive and valuable cities are typically coastal sunny mild educated and large

learning and capacity expansion under demand uncertainty a competitive dynamic model of entry into a new industry is set up and both its positive and normative aspects are studied the main assumptions are that entry is sequential that it occurs under imperfect information on the size of the market and that better information becomes available as time goes on the gradual improvement in information is due to the fact that later waves of entrants are able to observe the profitability of earlier entrants the major results reported here under suitable restrictions are that the equilibrium rate of entry is monotonically decreasing over time and that at any given point in time it is smaller than the socially optimal one when a new market opens as a result of a product being newly invented for instance or when an existing market starts to expand uncertainty with respect to its size is likely to prevail as a result of this uncertainty entry of firms into such markets typically will occur in waves some firms will enter initially while others will wait to see the consequences of that initial entry if the experience of early entrants is favourable entry will continue otherwise entry will cease hence with the introduction of a new product two phases are associated the growth phase typified by positive operating profits for existing firms and expansion of productive capacity due to entry of new firms and the mature phase typified by erosion of profits and fixed total productive capacity empiricists estimating the time pattern of investments during the growth phase have found an s shaped diffusion curve see mansfield 1986 and gort and klepper 1982 the purpose of the present paper is to theoretically characterize these time patterns and to investigate their welfare properties any attempt to model the type of entry described above must account for differences in both entry dates and resultant earnings in other words the theory must explain why the realized earnings of different cohorts of firms are not equal often such ex post differences are reconciled by assuming heterogeneity with respect to some latent underlying characteristic managerial ability for instance and attributing differences in earnings to differences in that characteristic in this paper instead earning differentials are attributable to luck only ex ante all firms are technologically identical and equally capable of forecasting market prospects and rationally acting upon those forecasts ex post some firms turn out to have entered at the right time and are for that reason more profitable the model developed in this paper analyzes a parametric example of a sequential entry problem in which the uncertainty over market size is gradually resolved over time in a bayesian setting in an environment of perfect competition and constant returns toscale a free entry equilibrium concept is introduced and the aggregate implications of the time path of investments are derived i then compare this actual time path to the optimum this comparison is interesting because the equilibrium is analysed under the

policy analysis of the greenhouse effect an application of the page model abstract in this paper we introduce a comprehensive model for policy analysis of the greenhouse effect page we apply the page model to assess the merits of policies to prevent global warming by controlling the emissions of greenhouse gases and policies to adapt to any global warming that occurs the results confirm that it is difficult to overcome the problem of global warming by taking preventive action alone the argument for introducing an aggressive adaptive policy is very strong we calculate the valuation that would have to be placed upon non economic environmental and social impacts for a combined strategy of preventive and adaptive policies to be considered a worthwhile option both for individual regions and for the world as a whole we also show that uncertainties in all four groups of inputs to the model scientific costs of control costs of adaptation and valuation of impacts have a great influence on the costs and impacts of the combined strategy

will u s agriculture really benefit from global warming accounting for irrigation in the hedonic approach will u s agriculture really benefit from global warming accounting for irrigation in the hedonic approach wolfram schlenker w michael hanemann and anthony c fisher there has been a lively debate about the potential impact of global climate change on u s agriculture most of the early agro economic studies predict large damages see for example richard m adams 1989 harry m kaiser et al 1993 and adams et al 1995 in an innovative paper robert mendelsohn william d nordhaus and daigee shaw 1994 hereafter mns propose a new approach using the variation in temperature and precipitation across u s counties to estimate a reduced form hedonic equation with the value of farmland as the dependent variable a change in temperature and or precipitation is then associated with a change in farmland value which can be interpreted as the impact of climate change adams et al 1998 characterize the hedonic approach as a spatial analogue approach and acknowledge that the strength of the spatial analogue approach is that structural changes and farm responses are implicit in the analysis freeing the analyst from the burden of estimating the e ects of climate change on particular region speci c crops and farmer responses on the other hand one of the potential disadvantages of the hedonic approach is that it is a partial equilibrium analysis i e agricultural prices are assumed to remain constant 1 while year to year uctuations in annual weather conditions certainly have the potential to impact current commodity prices especially for crops produced only in a relatively localized area such as citrus fruits which are grown mainly in california and florida changes in long run weather patterns i e changes in climate might have a smaller e ect on commodity prices because of the greater potential for economic adaptation particularly shifts in growing regions 2 the hedonic approach as implemented by mns predicts that existing agricultural land on average might be more productive and hence result in bene ts for u s farmers 3 the hedonic approach has received considerable attention in our judgment in part because the conclusions are at variance with those of some other studies

good day sunshine stock returns and the weather psychological evidence and casual intuition predict that sunny weather is associated with upbeat mood this paper examines the relationship between morning sunshine in the city of a country s leading stock exchange and daily market index returns across 26 countries from 1982 to 1997 sunshine is strongly significantly correlated with stock returns after controlling for sunshine rain and snow are unrelated to returns substantial use of weather based strategies was optimal for a trader with very low transactions costs however because these strategies involve frequent trades fairly modest costs eliminate the gains these findings are difficult to reconcile with fully rational price setting

climate and the emergence of global income differences the latitude gradient in comparative development is a striking fact as one moves away from the equator economic activity rises while this regularity is well known it is not well understood in the present paper we take a step towards unpacking this gradient perhaps the strongest correlate with absolute latitude is the intensity of ultraviolet radiation uv r which epidemiological research has shown to be a cause of a wide range of diseases we establish that uv r is strongly and negatively correlated with economic activity both across and within countries we propose and test a mechanism that links uv r to current income differences via the impact of disease ecology on the timing of the take off to sustained growth

empirical studies on agricultural impacts and adaptation abstract agricultural production is heavily dependent on weather outcomes and hence climate change has the potential to significantly alter the sector s productivity both reduced form studies as well as integrated assessment models have found that the agricultural sector might experience significant impacts we discuss the advantages of empirical reduced form studies and their link and potential usefulness to integrated assessment models we further discuss challenges facing empirical studies and recent research that looks at the longer term changes in climate and attempts to measure adaptation

winter blues a sad stock market cycle and god said let there be light and there was light and god saw that the light was good genesis 1 3 depression has been linked with seasonal affective disorder sad a condition that affects many people during the seasons of relatively fewer hours of daylight experimental research in psychology has documented a clear link between depression and lowered risktaking behavior in a wide range of settings including those of a financial nature through the links between sad and depression and between depression and risk aversion seasonal variation in length of day can translate into seasonal variation in equity returns based on supportive evidence from psychology which suggests sad is linked closely with hours of daylight we consider stock market index data from countries at various latitudes and on both sides of the equator we model differences in the seasonal variation of daylight across coun

temperature and income reconciling new cross sectional and panel estimates this paper presents novel evidence and analysis of the relationship between temperature and income first using sub national data from 12 countries in the americas we provide new evidence that the negative cross country relationship between temperature and income also exists within countries and even within states second we provide a theoretical framework for reconciling the substantial negative association between temperature and income in the cross section with the even stronger short run effects of temperature estimated by panel models the theoretical framework suggests that half of the negative short term effects of temperature may be offset in the long run through adaptation this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

climatic factors as determinants of international migration we examine environmental change as a potential determinant of international migration we distinguish between unexpected short run factors captured by natural disasters as well as long run climate change and climate variability captured by deviations and volatilities of temperatures and rainfall from and around their long run averages starting from a simple neo classical model we use a panel dataset of bilateral migration flows for the period 1960 2000 that allows us to control for numerous time varying and time invariant factors we find no direct impact of climatic change on international migration across our entire sample these results are robust when conditioning on characteristics of origin countries as well as when further considering migrants returning home and the potential endogeneity of our network variable in contrast there is evidence of indirect effects of environmental factors going through wages we further find strong evidence that natural disasters beget greater flows of migrants to urban environs

are international deposits tax driven abstract this paper investigates the impact of tax policy on international depositing non bank international deposits are shown to be positively related to interest income taxes and to the presence of domestic bank interest reporting this suggests that international deposits are in part intended to facilitate tax evasion at present only part of international interest flow are covered by either non resident interest withholding taxes or international exchange of information this incomplete coverage may be a reason that these policies currently appear to have little impact on international depositing

using weather variability to estimate the response of savings to transitory income in thailand this paper measures the extent to which farmers are able to use savings and dissavings to smooth consumption in response to unexpected shocks to income time series information on regional rainfall is used to construct estimates of transitory income due to rainfall shocks the relationship between these measures of transitory income and savings indicates that farm households save a significantly higher fraction of transitory income than nontransitory income jel d91 016 the incomes of farm households in developing countries are notorious for being both low and uncertain policies that increase the incomes of farmers may well be different

can cultural norms reduce conflicts confucianism and peasant rebellions in qing china abstract can culture mitigate conflicts triggered by economic shocks in light of the extraordinary emphasis that confucianism places on subordination and pacifism we examine its role in possibly attenuating peasant rebellion within the historical context of china circa 1651 1910 our analysis finds that while crop failure triggers peasant rebellion its effect is significantly smaller in counties characterized by stronger confucian norms as proxied by confucian temples and chaste women this result remains robust after controlling for a long list of covariates and instrumenting confucian norms using ancient confucian sages 500 b c a d 550 to address concerns of measurement error and reverse causality

the great retrenchment international capital flows during the global financial crisis the current crisis saw an unprecedented collapse in international capital flows after years of rising financial globalization we identify the stylized facts and main drivers of this development the retrenchment in international capital flows is a highly heterogeneous phenomenon first across time being especially dramatic in the wake of the lehman brothers failure secondly across types of flows with banking flows being the hardest hit due to their sensitivity of risk perception and thirdly across regions with emerging economies experiencing a shorter lived retrenchment than developed economies our econometric analysis shows that the magnitude of the retrenchment in capital flows across countries is linked to the extent of international financial integration its specific nature with countries relying on bank flows being the hardest hit as well as domestic macroeconomic conditions and their connection to world trade flows gian maria milesi ferretti and cedric tille

the impact of climate conditions on economic production evidence from a global panel of regions abstract we present a novel data set of subnational economic output gross regional product grp for more than 1500 regions in 77 countries that allows us to empirically estimate historic climate impacts at different time scales employing annual panel models long difference regressions and cross sectional regressions we identify effects on productivity levels and productivity growth we do not find evidence for permanent growth rate impacts but we find robust evidence that temperature affects productivity levels considerably an increase in global mean surface temperature by about 3 5 c until the end of the century would reduce global output by 7 14 in 2100 with even higher damages in tropical and poor regions updating the dice damage function with our estimates suggests that the social cost of carbon from temperature induced productivity losses is on the order of 73 142 tco2 in 2020 rising to 92 181 tco2 in 2030 these numbers exclude non market damages and damages from extreme weather events or sea level rise

a review of the stern review on the economics of climate change how much and how fast should we react to the threat of global warming the stern review argues that the damages from climate change are large and that nations should undertake sharp and immediate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions an examination of the review s radical revision of the economics of climate change finds however that it depends decisively on the assumption of a near zero time discount rate combined with a specific utility function the review s unambiguous conclusions about the need for extreme immediate action will not survive the substitution of assumptions that are consistent with today s marketplace real interest rates and savings rates

fdi versus exports evidence from german banks abstract we use a new bank level dataset to study the fdi versus exports decision for german banks we extend the literature on multinational firms in two directions first we simultaneously study fdi and the export of cross border financial services second we test recent theories on multinational firms which show the importance of firm heterogeneity helpman e melitz m j yeaple s r 2004 export versus fdi american economic review 94 1 300 316 our results show that fdi and cross border services are complements rather than substitutes heterogeneity of banks has a significant impact on the internationalization decision more profitable and larger banks are more likely to expand internationally than smaller banks they have more extensive foreign activities and they are more likely to engage in fdi in addition to cross border financial services

the sectoral and regional economic consequences of climate change to 2060 this paper presents a new detailed global quantitative assessment of the economic consequences of climate change i e climate damages to 2060 the analysis is based on an assessment of a wide range of impacts changes in crop yields loss of land and capital due to sea level rise changes in fisheries catches capital damages from hurricanes labour productivity changes and changes in health care expenditures from diseases and heat stress changes in tourism flows and changes in energy demand for cooling and heating a multi region multi sector dynamic computable general equilibrium model is used to link different impacts until 2060 directly to specific drivers of economic growth including labour productivity capital stocks and land supply as well as assess the indirect effects these impacts have on the rest of the economy and on the economies of other countries it uses a novel production function approach to identify which aspects of economic activity are directly affected by climate change the model results show that damages are projected to rise twice as fast as global economic activity global annual gross domestic product losses are projected to be 1 0 3 3 by 2060 of the impacts that are modelled impacts on labour productivity and agriculture are projected to have the largest negative economic consequences damages from sea level rise grow most rapidly after the middle of the century damages to energy and tourism are very small from a global perspective as benefits in some regions balance damages in others climate induced damages from hurricanes may have significant effects on local communities but the macroeconomic consequences are projected to be very small net economic consequences are projected to be especially large in africa and asia where the regional economies are vulnerable to a range of different climate impacts for some countries in higher latitudes economic benefits can arise from gains in tourism energy and health the global assessment also shows that countries that are relatively less affected by climate change may reap trade gains

implications of rational inattention abstract a constraint that actions can depend on observations only through a communication channel with finite shannon capacity is shown to be able to play a role very similar to that of a signal extraction problem or an adjustment cost in standard control problems the resulting theory looks enough like familiar dynamic rational expectations theories to suggest that it might be useful and practical while the implications for policy are different enough to be interesting

deposit insurance and international bank liabilities abstract this paper examines the responsiveness of external bank liabilities to deposit insurance policies for a sample of developed countries external bank liabilities held by non banks are found to increase after the introduction of explicit deposit insurance deposit insurance schemes tend to exclude interbank deposits from coverage and the response of external interbank liabilities to deposit insurance appears to be varied neither external non bank nor external interbank liabilities are found to be materially affected by deposit insurance design this suggests that international competition in the area of deposit insurance design as possible under the eu deposit insurance directive of 1994 would be fruitless

temperature shocks and establishment sales combining granular daily data on temperatures across the continental united states with detailed establishment data from 1990 to 2015 we study the causal impact of temperature shocks on establishment sales and productivity using a large sample yielding precise estimates we do not find evidence that temperature exposures significantly affect establishment level sales or productivity including among industries traditionally classified as heat sensitive at the firm level we find that temperature exposures aggregated across firm establishments are generally unrelated to sales productivity and profitability our results support existing findings of a tenuous relation between temperature and aggregate economic growth in rich countries

climate shocks and international trade evidence from china abstract this paper examines the impacts of climate shocks on international trade in china we find that there are substantial climate effects on exports but only little impacts on imports poorer warmer and non coastal cities suffer more from a warming climate

temperature shocks and the cost of equity capital implications for climate change perceptions financial market information can provide an objective assessment of losses anticipated from temperature changes in an apt model in which temperature shocks are a systematic risk factor the risk premium is significantly negative loadings for most assets are negative and asset portfolios in more vulnerable industries have stronger negative loadings on a temperature shock factor weighted average increases in the cost of equity capital attributed to uncertainty about temperature changes are 0 22 percent implying a present value loss of 7 92 percent of wealth these costs represent a new channel that may contribute to cost of climate change assessment

foreign activities of u s banks since 1997 the roles of regulations and market conditions in crises and normal times abstract using a unique newly constructed dataset on u s banks foreign activities since 1997 this paper examines how bank market and regulatory conditions in the u s and host countries affect u s banks choices of which foreign markets to enter and how much claims and liabilities to take on there using a two stage structural estimation framework the determinants of foreign market entry exit cross border claims and foreign affiliate claims and liabilities choices are examined in 107 host countries around the world it is shown that 1 the health of the balance sheet is the primary driver of foreign market entry exit choices especially so during the subprime crisis while host market and regulatory conditions play important roles in the choice of claims liabilities volumes 2 banks choose their foreign activities during banking and market crises differently than they do in normal times and 3 in addition to bank size previous experience with managing a global lending network significantly increases the intensity of banks foreign involvement structural estimates of the costs of foreign market entry exit and host market regulatory stringency are also derived

financial crises and cross border banking new evidence the surge in cross border banking prior to global financial crises took place not only in the interbank market but also in the retail market e g between banks and their private customers abroad we utilize confidential data to estimate for the first time the effects of banking currency and twin crises on the geography of cross border deposits and loans we show that each crisis type has its own specific effects that these effects themselves lead to sustained increases in cross border banking and that they are different for cross border loans and deposits respectively

decentralization duplication and delay we argue that although decentralization has advantages in finding low cost solutions these advantages are accompanied by coordination problems which lead to delay or duplication of effort or both consequently decentralization is desirable when there is little urgency or a great deal of private information but it is strictly undesirable in urgent problems when private information is less important we also examine the effect of large numbers and find that coordination problems disappear in the limit if distributions are common knowledge

foreign banks and foreign currency lending in emerging europe based on survey data from 193 banks in 20 countries we provide the first bank level analysis of the relationship between bank ownership bank funding and foreign currency fx lending across emerging europe our results contradict the widespread view that foreign banks have been driving fx lending to retail clients as a result of easier access to foreign wholesale funding our cross sectional analysis shows that foreign banks do lend more in fx to corporate clients but not to households moreover we find no evidence that wholesale funding had a strong causal effect on fx lending for either foreign or domestic banks panel estimations show that the foreign acquisition of a domestic bank does lead to faster growth in fx lending to households however this is driven by faster growth in household lending in general not by a shift towards fx lending

information acquisition and welfare we study information acquisition in a flexible framework with strategic complementarity or substitutability in actions and a rich set of externalities that are responsible for possible wedges between the equilibrium and the efficient acquisition of information first we relate the in efficiency in the acquisition of information to the in efficiency in the use of information and explain why efficiency in the use is no guarantee of efficiency in the acquisition next we show how the acquisition of private information affects the social value of public information i e the comparative statics of equilibrium welfare with respect to the quality of public information finally we illustrate the implications of the results in a monetary economy with price rigidities and dispersed information about productivity shocks

a review of the stern review on the economics of climate change the stern review calls for immediate decisive action to stabilize greenhouse gases because the benefits of strong early action on climate change outweighs the costs the economic analysis supporting this conclusion consists mostly of two basic strands the first strand is a formal aggregative model that relies for its conclusions primari ly upon imposing a very low discount rate concerning this discount rate aspect i am skeptical of the review s formal analysis but this essay points out that we are actual ly a lot less sure about what interest rate should be used for discounting climate change than is commonly acknowledged the review s second basic strand is a more intuitive argument that it might be very important to avoid possibly large uncertain ties that are difficult to quantify concerning this uncertainty aspect i argue that it might be recast into sound analytical reasoning that might justify some of the review s conclusions the basic issue here is that spending money to slow global warming should perhaps not be conceptualized primarily as being about consump tion smoothing as much as being about how much insurance to buy to offset the small change of a ruinous catastrophe that is difficult to compensate by ordinary savings

trends in rainfall and economic growth in africa a neglected cause of the african growth tragedy abstract we examine the role of rainfall trends in poor growth performance of sub saharan african nations relative to other developing countries using a new cross country panel climatic data set in an empirical economic growth framework our results show that rainfall has been a significant determinant of poor economic growth for african nations but not for other countries depending on the benchmark measure of potential rainfall we estimate that the direct impact under the scenario of no decline in rainfall would have resulted in a reduction of between around 15 and 40 of today s gap in african gdp per capita relative to the rest of the developing world

is full banking integration desirable abstract we analyze the links between banking integration and economic development for a sample of oecd countries we measure banking integration considering indicators that merge not only openness but also connectedness with other banking systems we plug these indicators into income regressions also controlling for other relevant variables considered by the literature in contrast to previous initiatives this second stage explicitly takes into account the differing levels of economic development of the countries in our sample since the benefits of enhanced banking integration might not be generalizable to this end we implement quantile regression also considering the presence of endogenous regressors results show that bank connectedness is more important for economic development than bank openness but the combined effect i e banking integration overall is positive and significant the quantile regression models used in the second stage show that the effects are stronger for the poorest economies

the determinants of u s banks international activities abstract this paper develops a model and structural dynamic estimation of bank behavior to map the relationship between u s banks choices of foreign banking activities and bank and foreign market traits this estimation framework is applied to a unique bank level dataset compiled from regulatory sources covering u s banks foreign activities in 83 host markets over the 2003 2013 period bank traits are better able to explain the evolving patterns of foreign banking than host market characteristics after controlling for these traits the post financial crisis period shows a structural shift away from cross border claims towards foreign affiliate activities structural estimates of foreign market entry costs and regulatory attitudes towards risk are derived simulation exercises confirm the strong impact of banks and regulators risk stance on bank profits and portfolio composition

market discipline and deposit insurance cross country evidence presented in this paper suggests that explicit deposit insurance reduces required deposit interest rates while at the same time it lowers market discipline on bank risk taking internationally deposit insurance schemes vary widely in their coverage funding and management this reflects that there are widely differing views on how deposit insurance should optimally be structured to inform this debate we use a newly constructed data set of deposit insurance design features to examine how different design features affect deposit interest rates and market discipline

the impact of climate risk on firm performance and financing choices an international comparison increasingly adverse climatic conditions have created greater systematic risk for companies throughout the global economy few studies have directly examined the consequences of climate related risk on financing choices by publicly listed firms across the globe we attempt to do so using the global climate risk index compiled and published by germanwatch kreft eckstein 2014 which captures at the country level the extent of losses from extreme weather events as expected we find the likelihood of loss from major storms flooding heat waves etc to be associated with lower and more volatile earnings and cash flows consistent with policies that attempt to moderate such effects we show that firms located in countries characterized by more severe weather are likelier to hold more cash so as to build financial slack and thereby organizational resilience to climatic threats those firms also tend to have less short term debt but more long term debt and to be less likely to distribute cash dividends in addition we find that certain industries are less vulnerable to extreme weather and so face less climate related risk our results are robust to using an instrumental variable approach a propensity score matched sample and path analysis and remain unchanged when we consider an alternative measure of climate risk finally our conclusions are invariant to the timing of financial crises that can affect different countries at different times

income and health in tanzania an instrumental variable approach there is a substantial debate over the direction of the causal relation between income and health this is important for our understanding of the health production process and for the policy debate over improving healthcare we instrument income with rainfall measurements by matching satellite information on timing and positioning of 21 rainfall stations to longitudinal data 1991 94 of over 4 000 individuals in 51 villages in tanzania a 10 increase in income reduces the number of illnesses by 0 02 we also find that a 10 increase in income implies an increase of about 0 1 vaccinations of children under six