an earnings prediction approach to examining intercompany information transfers abstract we assess potential information transfers by examining the association between the earnings announcements of early and late announcers in an industry our earnings prediction models are statistically significant much more frequently than would be expected by chance the models suggest potential positive information transfers on average but there is substantial cross industry variation in the strength of this relation we find that the greatest price reactions by nonannouncers to same industry earnings announcements occur in industries with the greatest earnings comovement

scale and scope economies at large banks including off balance sheet products and regulatory effects 1984 1991 this paper examines the impact of the risk based capital rbc requirements on bank cost efficiencies we take into consideration both on and off balance sheet obs products and allow product mixes to differ across banks and to vary over time our empirical results suggest that the cost structures of large banks are significantly different during the pre rbc and post rbc periods that is the rbc change seemed to reduce the optimal bank size that achieves maximum scale and scope economies so that some of the large banks that previously were efficient became too large and inefficient the results suggest that regulations that encourage large banks to expand their production and product mixes any further will likely result in a less efficient banking industry

unexpected earnings and intraindustry information transfers further evidence this paper provides evidence on the association between unexpected quarterly earnings information and the contemporaneous stock price behavior of announcing and nonannouncing firms in the same industry prior research provides evidence consistent with a positive sign and magnitude relation between the unsystematic stock returns of announcing and nonannouncing firms at earnings release dates i e information transfers foster 1981 and clinch and sinclair 1987 as these studies emphasize however such an association may arise from misspecification of the stock return generating process to address this issue we use unexpected earnings not announcing firms unsystematic stock returns in tests of information transfers evidence consistent with information transfers when unexpected earnings are used as a proxy for the informativeness of earnings would reduce the likelihood of information transfers attributable to returns model misspecification and would support the hypothesis that unexpected earnings and not some unspecified information item drive information transfers at earnings release dates we find a positive sign and magnitude relation between the contemporaneous unsystematic stock returns of announcing and nonannouncing firms at earnings release dates and between unexpected earnings of announcing firms and unsystematic stock returns of nonannouncing

discussion of voluntary disclosure choice and earnings information transfer pownall and waymire s paper prompted a general discussion of information transfer research particularly its motivation and methodology this summary begins with a brief introduction to information transfer research it then considers motivation and methodology since the discussion related both to pownall and waymire s research specifically and to information transfer research generally these discussion comments extend to both as well

measuring noise in inventory models this paper has two purposes one is to assess different models of inventory behavior in terms of their ability to approximate the realized data we do this initially for the pure production smoothing model and then for a sequence of generalizations our analysis both performs specification tests as well as measures the deviations of the data from each null model through use of a noise ratio statistic a second purpose is to explore whether observed cost shocks in particular raw materials prices help explain inventory movements we find that the production smoothing model of inventories augmented by buffer stock motives stockout avoidance motives and observed cost shocks well approximates monthly data

understanding the cyclical nature of financial intermediation costs intermediation costs i e all noninterest bank expenses are counter cyclical and their changes have significant effects at the country level however the literature is silent on what drives their cyclicality previous studies have examined costs using cross sectional or low frequency data and thus cannot capture dynamic macroeconomic effects across time we fill this gap by examining u s intermediation costs using a quarterly bank level dataset from 1993 through 2012 this data set allows for the separation of microeconomic and macroeconomic factors affecting the cyclicality of costs the analysis shows that house prices are the main driving source of this counter cyclicality because housing is used as collateral a price decline leads banks to increase their operating costs for monitoring screening and litigation costs which cause a credit crunch in the economy

a welfare analysis of canadian chartered bank mergers an econometric model of canada s five largest banks is estimated using time series data from 1976 to 1996 the principal findings are that chartered bank technology is characterized by increasing returns to scale scale efficiency is sufficiently large to offset the consequences of reduced competition that might have arisen from a merger between bank of montreal and royal bank of canada canadian imperial bank of commerce and toronto dominion bank or both the estimated model predicts that all the mergers proposed in 1998 would have led to slightly lower prices and consequently to an increase in consumer welfare une analyse de bien etre des fusions des banques a charte canadiennes l auteur calibre un modele econometrique des cinq plus grandes banques a charte au canada a l aide de series chronologiques de 1976 a 1996 les principaux resultats montrent que la technologie des banques a charte a des rendements croissants a l echelle ces rendements a l echelle sont suffisamment importants pour compenser les effets de reduction de la concurrence qui auraient pu se produire en consequence de la fusion de la banque de montreal et la banque royale de la banque imperiale de commerce et de la banque toronto dominion ou des deux le modele suggere que toutes les fusions proposees en 1998 auraient entraine des prix legerement plus bas et en consequence un accroissement dans le niveau de bien etre des consommateurs

monetary policy and inventory investment in greek manufacturing industry the paper reports an attempt to estimate the role of greek monetary policy in inventory investment in manufacturing interest and inflation rate expectations exercise a significant influence expected fluctations in the exchange rate for the first time examined are of major importance especially for stocks of raw materials which are mostly imported being strongly affected by monetary variables inventory investment can play a major role as a transmission channel of monetary policy changes to the greek economy

market based empirical research in accounting a review interpretation and extension a decade and a half of the most concerted and ambitious research effort in accounting history is evaluated here it is the search into the relationship between publicly disclosed accounting information and the consequences of the use of this information by the major group of usersequity investors as such consequences are reflected in characteristics of common stocks traded in major exchanges this research effort known as market based accounting research mbar obtained its impetus from major developments in finance theory during the late 1950s and early 1960s these were the portfolio selection theory and its offspring the capital asset pricing model capm and the concept of informationally efficient capital markets ecm subsequent developments in information economics agency theory and optimal incentive signaling models were quickly incorporated into mbar while the impetus to this line of research came from other disciplines accounting was not only a beneficiary but also to a modest extent a benefactor mbar is relevant to the study of capital market efficiency the capm information economics and regulation this contribution distinguishes mbar from most accounting areas whose contributions to other disciplines are negligible in

a theory of disclosure in speculative markets this paper presents a theory of disclosure in a market where investors have heterogeneous beliefs and face short sale constraints assets trade above fundamentals reflecting the value of the option to sell to more optimistic investors in the future the initial seller has an incentive to commit to an imprecise disclosure policy despite the negative effect this has on the fundamental value of the asset in order to increase the potential for disagreement and hence the magnitude of the speculative premium i show that there is a strategic complementarity between sellers in their disclosure decisions this explains why financial misreporting and episodes of speculation occur together in waves and demonstrates that the endogenous choice of imprecise disclosure amplifies the extent to which assets are overpriced this paper was accepted by amit seru finance

economic cost scale efficiency and competitive viability in banking this paper addresses the issue of the competitive viability of banks of different scales and scopes of operation and the implications that this may have for the evolving structure of the banking and financial services industry unlike previous papers this paper is the first to include both production and opportunity costs in an empirical evaluation of bank efficiency no consistent evidence is reported to suggest that banking organizations can achieve further gains in either production or economic efficiency by expanding beyond 2 billion dollars of total assets thus it is likely that smaller less diversified banking organizations will remain competitively viable copyright 1996 by ohio state university press

measuring the convexity of the cost function abstract in this paper i argue that as might be expected the initial assumption made about the cost function will influence the empirical results obtained regarding the convexity i show that this expectation is supported empirically by estimating the parameters of two quadratic cost functions the first is that function which has been traditionally used in the literature the second is a simplified version of the quadratic cost function where the cost of changing the level of output is dropped since the evidence in the literature suggest that this variable has no significant effect on cost using physical product monthly data for 24 industries we find that the conclusion reached regarding the convexity of the cost function depends on the assumption we make regarding the cost function i further find that the simplified function is consistent with the observed behavior of production and sales while the traditional cost function is inconsistent with that behavior

seasonality aggregation and the testing of the production smoothing hypothesis one of the leading hypotheses concerning the dynamics of production over time is the production smoothing hypothesis given a planning horizon which spans a number of production periods the firm need not produce in each period an amount equal to expected sales rather resorting to inventory accumulation and liquidation the firm may follow a production plan temporally smoother than the path of demand if firms faced with convex cost functions chose to smooth the rate of output in order to minimize costs one would expect to observe that the rate of output would vary less than the rate of sales with variations in inventory stocks absorbing some of the fluctuations in sales recently work on the testing of the production smoothing hypothesis has cast doubt on its empirical validity the evidence presented by alan blinder seems to indicate that the variance of production exceeds that of sales in seven out of eight two digit retail industries 1981 and in eighteen out of twenty two digit manufacturing industries 1983 and 1986 the purpose of this paper then is to examine the validity of such tests when seasonally adjusted aggregated data are used the evidence presented show that the relative size of the variances of the seasonally adjusted production and sales does not provide valid tests of the production smoothing hypothesis in addition aggregating over firms where the seasonal patterns differ may also distort tests of production smoothing blinder realized that the use of seasonally adjusted data may not provide an adequate test of the hypothesis stating had they been available i would have preferred to use data that were not seasonally adjusted since the production smoothing model presumably applies to seasonal fluctuations in sales however such data are not available 1983 fn 19 in this paper i focus on the cement industry because the unadjusted disaggregated data are available for the direct testing of the conjecture that aggregate seasonally adjusted data mask production smoothing phenomenon aggregate monthly data on five other industries will also be examined

big bank mergers in europe an analysis of the cost implications this paper examines the cost implications from hypothetical cross border bank mergers in the eu in light of recent claims that substantial cost savings could be expected as the result of the eu s single market programme for financial services in fact our results suggest only limited opportunities for costs saving from big bank mergers and indicate that such mergers are more likely to result in an increase in total costs while there is a large variation in the simulated cost outcomes the greatest opportunities for cost savings would appear to be generated by mergers between german and italian banks in contrast mergers between french and german banks appear likely to result in substantial cost increases although the overall findings suggest limited benefits from cross border mergers between large banks this may be a reflection of the methodology merger simulations are carried out hypothetically ignoring any prior information about the pairings we assume no premiums or merger costs and no further synergies resulting from such things as branch closures or a restructuring of the product mix these assumptions may cause us to understate the potential reduction in total costs resulting from large bank mergers and therefore our estimates provide the most pessimistic of total cost reduction outcomes in conclusion the substantial variation of cost outcomes generated suggests that large banks seeking economies through cross border mergers should select potential partners with great care

the dominance of inefficiencies over scale and product mix economies in banking abstract this study measures and analyzes inefficiencies for all u s banks in 1984 inefficiencies are measured relative to a thick frontier cost function and are found to dominate measured scale and product mix economies most inefficiencies are operational in nature involving the overuse of physical inputs rather than financial involving overpayment of interest also technical inefficiencies proportionate overuse of all inputs dominate allocative inefficiencies improper mix of inputs these results suggest that competitive pressures in banking from deregulation will be focused primarily on banks that do not control costs rather than on those of a particular size or product mix

unsystematic security price movements management earnings forecasts and revisions in consensus analyst earnings forecasts empirical evidence suggests that information about a firm s future earnings prospects is important to investors griffin 1976 givoly and lakonishok 1979 1980 and imhoff and lobo 1984 reported statistically significant abnormal stock returns before at and after announcements of analyst earnings forecast revisions in addition imhoff and lobo documented positive correlation between the magnitudes of the forecast revisions and the abnormal returns these findings are consistent with the hypothesis that investors find analyst forecast revisions informative another source of information about future earnings is projections from corporate officials several studies have found unsystematic stock price changes prior to and or immediately surrounding the public release of management earnings forecasts e g foster 1973 nichols and tsay 1979 patell 1976 jaggi 1978 penman 1980 and waymire 1984 the conclusion from this research is that management forecasts also convey information to investors

market assessment of industry and firm earnings information abstract this study examines the timing of security returns associated with industry wide earnings and firm specific earnings we predict and find that returns associated with differences in performance across industries begin and end earlier than returns associated with differences in firm specific performance within industries to earn abnormal profits a trading strategy based on forecasts of future earnings would require earlier predictions of industry wide earnings than of firm specific earnings

a study of bank efficiency taking into account risk preferences abstract i use the stochastic cost frontier approach to investigate efficiency of banks operating in the third federal reserve district accounting for the quality and riskiness of bank output in addition to the mean and mode of the conditional distribution of the one sided error term i calculate confidence intervals for the inefficiency measures based on the conditional distribution the results indicate that third district banks are operating at cost efficient output levels and product mixes but are not efficiently using their inputs the second part of the article relates the inefficiency measures to several correlates

scale economies and cost complementarities in commercial banks on and off balance sheet activities abstract bank off balance sheet obs activities have grown dramatically and have become significantly important especially at large banks we investigate whether failure to incorporate obs products may lead to a misspecification problem models that exclude deposits from the output specification suggest economies of scale which vanish when deposits are included we find that inclusion of obs products has little effect on the scale economies measures with only a few exceptions the results provide no evidence of cost complementarities in joint production the tremendous growth of bank obs activities in the 1980s may be explained by the very small approximately zero pecuniary cost of these activities

traditional and nontraditional banking an information theoretic approach abstract this paper uses a multiproduct approach to analyze the costs of a sample of large banks where bank outputs are measured to account for the different types of information produced by banks diseconomies of scope are found between traditional banking activities of originating and monitoring loans and nontraditional activities of loan selling and buying this suggests maintaining fire walls between commercial bank functions and investment bank functions after the glass steagall act is repealed will not sacrifice joint production economies it also suggests that arguments for repeal of the act based on the existence of such economies are ill founded

invited remarks ball and brown 1968 it is a great honor for me to be at this conference and speaking to you today nick dopuch was not all that explicit when it came to a topic for this last session nick said talk about anything you like i interpreted that to mean i should talk in general terms about my early work with ray ball and its influence on the accounting literature and in particular about a paper we wrote about 20 years ago which is now commonly referred to simply as ball and brown 1968 i begin by covering the paper itself the antecedent conditions why the paper was written what we attempted to do in the paper and what was novel as far as we were concerned next i give my view of the main strands in the accounting literature since 1968 that are related to our work i conclude by offering a few thoughts on directions that the capitalmarkets based accounting literature might take in the years ahead

banks as multioutput oligopolies an empirical evaluation of the retail and corporate banking markets the distinction between retail and corporate banking markets is of much importance in real life banking organizations the two markets differ with respect to concentration the importance of informational asymmetries and the extent of customer mobility within a standard conjectural variation model estimated on cost efficient banks as well as on the full sample of banks the authors empirically characterize the strategic behavior in each of these markets and also focus on cross market interactions to see whether initial moves in one market affect the equilibrium in the other market they compare their findings to the predictions that would follow from merely considering concentration ratios such as the herfindahl index

product line deregulation and the cost structure of us savings and loan associations recent legislative actions restrict thrift powers which were broadened by deregulatory actions in the early 1980s using nationwide data for savings and loans s ls evidence is found that these restrictions may rise intermediation costs for s ls by limiting their ability to exploit economies of scope between mortgage related and other outputs in addition economies of scale for a wide size range of s ls are found evidence is also found to suggest that insolvent s ls have higher costs for the same level of outputs than solvent s ls

real output of bank services what counts is what banks do not what they own the measurement of bank output a difficult and contentious issue has become even more important in the aftermath of the devastating financial crisis of recent years in this paper we argue that models of banks as processors of information and transactions imply a quantity measure of bank service output based on transaction counts instead of balances of loans and deposits compiling new and comparable output measures for the united states and a range of european countries we show that our counts based output series exhibit significantly different growth patterns from those of our balances based output series over the years 1997 to 2009 since the u s official statistics rely on counts while european statistics rely on balances this implies a potentially considerable bias in the estimate of bank output growth in europe vis avis that in the united states

scale elasticity versus scale efficiency in banking in the early bank cost literature many of the studies found scale elasticities significantly different from unity as a result the authors suggested that changes in industry structure could produce cost savings through increased efficiency recent bank cost studies improved upon previous methodologies by utilizing flexible functional forms accounting for multiproduct production processes estimating scale measures at both the branch and firm level distinguishing between branch and unit bank technologies resulting from regulatory restrictions etc the typical finding from the recent studies is that relatively minor scale economies exist in banking since the scale elasticity measure differs little from a value of unity this reported finding is usually followed by a general statement that banks operate relatively efficiently with respect to the scale of production and that the potential cost gains from exploiting scale advantages via merger or growth activities appear to be relatively minor the implication from the conclusions drawn by the authors of numerous studies is that scale elasticity and scale efficiency are essentially synonymous the derivation of one automatically provides an accurate or approximate value for the other the purpose of this article is to bring attention to a common confusion in the literature between two relatively straightforward concepts scale elasticity and scale efficiency the bank production process is one of the most extensively researched aspects of bank behavior until recently however studies have not typically evaluated scale efficiency instead scale elasticity estimates have been used as a proxy for efficiency and elasticity measures close to 1 0 are taken to imply that scale inefficiency is trivial scale inefficiency is typically assumed to be linearly

inventories and the structure of macro models the message of this paper can be summed up in two words inventories matter they matter empirically in the sense that inventory developments are of major importance in the propagation of business cycles and they matter theoretically in the sense that recognition of their existence changes the structure of a variety of theoretical macromodels in some fairly important ways this paper is mainly about the implications of inventories for the structure of theoretical macro models but i begin by demonstrating the empirical importance of inventories in business fluctuations this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

timing decisions of new product preannouncement and launch with competition abstract we develop a game theoretic model to study the timing of new product preannouncement and launch under competition we derive firms optimal timing choices and conducted a numerical analysis to evaluate the role of various factors our analytical and numerical results showed that anticipated competitor s timing choices are the most significant factors a firm should not preannounce early unless the preannouncement is effective in creating pent up demands however the preannouncement and launch should be rushed if the quality or profit margin of the new product is high and postponed if the market share of the existing product is high the market leader should preannounce earlier in a simultaneous game than in a sequential game but the opposite for the market follower data collected from the microprocessor industry validated our model

production planning horizon production smoothing and convexity of the cost functions abstract one of the productions planning models economists have used for the past four decades is the production smoothing model the model s conclusion is simple if cost functions are convex under certain conditions firm s production plans may show smaller variability than the firm s sales this is a result of the first order condition for cost minimization over the production planning horizon in a 1986 paper blinder raised doubts regarding the ability of the production smoothing model to explain the observed data some researchers e g ramey journal of political economy 99 2 1991 306 explained the inconsistency between the theory and the data by providing evidence that the cost functions are non convex in this paper i point out that the shapes of the cost functions depend on the length of the time horizon under consideration it is possible that while short run cost functions are upward sloping long run cost functions may be downward sloping because the planning horizon for firms facing seasonal demand has been shown to be one seasonal cycle the short run cost function whose shape determines the firm s production plan over the horizon need to be estimated using single planning horizon data i e a single seasonal cycle researchers who use long time series data are in effect estimating long run cost functions the slopes of which may be non positive i show further that convexity of the production cost function is neither necessary nor sufficient condition for production smoothing to be an optimal plan

unfair fair value in illiquid markets information spillover effects in times of crisis we investigate the effects of write downs on market prices and volumes under fair value accounting we also examine the prominent role that illiquidity plays in exacerbating the direct and spillove

threshold effects of financial status on the cost frontiers of financial institutions in nondynamic panels this article applies hansen s 1999 2000 threshold regression model to estimate translog cost frontiers in the hope of shedding light on the banking industry s production processes and the extent of its technical efficiency te the threshold technique allows for the existence of multiple technologies of production distinguished by an exogenous threshold variable strong evidence of multiple technologies is found in the industry irrespective of which financial indicator as constructed by factor analysis defines the threshold variable cost savings and scale economies among the various underlying technologies are compared herein we also highlight the differences between the threshold results and the conventional cost frontier

nonconvex costs and the behavior of inventories this paper explores one possible explanation for the apparent excess volatility of production relative to sales nonconvexities in the technology facing firms it is shown that if firms operate in a region of declining marginal costs then small shifts in demand can cause production to jump substantially estimates for six production to stock industries as well as the automobile industry suggest that all these industries behave as if they were operating in the region of nonconvex costs the results have important implications not only for inventory investment but also for the cyclical behavior of productivity and prices

auditor reputation the impact of critical reports issued by government inspectors in recent years u k department of trade investigations into the affairs of a specific company have sometimes been critical of the work done by its auditors and reporting accountants this article assesses the impact of this criticism on the auditor s reputation in particular it examines the stock price performance of the auditor s listed clients the results show a small wealth loss for the audit clients the article also examines the impact of the department of trade criticism on an audit firm s number of listed clients and its future audit fees compared to a control group the criticized auditors appear to suffer a small loss in market share based on number of listed clients and on audit fees the evidence suggests that criticized auditors incurred economic losses from the damage to their reputations this is consistent with models of reputation advanced in the industrial organization literature

the role of supplementary statements with management earnings forecasts we investigate managers decisions to supplement their firms management earnings forecasts we classify these supplementary disclosures as qualitative soft talk disclosures or verifiable forward looking statements we find that managers provide soft talk disclosures with similar frequency for good and bad news forecasts but are more likely to supplement good news forecasts with verifiable forward looking statements we examine the market response to these forecasts and find that bad news earnings forecasts are always informative but that good news forecasts are informative only when supplemented by verifiable forward looking statements supporting our argument that these statements bolster the credibility of good news forecasts

positive and negative information transfers from management forecasts we examine positive and negative information transfers associated with management earnings and revenue forecasts positive information transfers are due to industry commonalities whereas negative information transfers are caused by competitive shifts we argue that positive and negative intra industry information transfers offset each other and lead to an overall finding of no information transfers even though they exist we also conjecture that the type of information transfers from the same management forecast can be positive or negative based on the characteristics of the information receiver we hypothesize positive information transfers to nonrival firms and negative information transfers to rivals consistent with our prediction we find negative positive information transfers between forecasting firms and nonforecasting rival nonrival firms in the same industry through analyses using competitors identified by hoover s and 10 k reports we show more general evidence of negative information transfers to rival firms

measuring efficiency at u s banks accounting for heterogeneity is important abstract estimates of bank cost efficiency can be biased if bank heterogeneity is ignored i compare x inefficiency derived from a model constraining the cost frontier to be the same for all banks in the u s and a model allowing for different frontiers and error terms across federal reserve districts i find that the data reject the single cost function model x inefficiency measures based on the single cost function model are on average higher than those based on the separate cost functions model the distributions of the one sided error terms are wider for the single cost function model than for the separate cost functions model and the ranking of districts by the level of x inefficiency differs in the two models the results suggest it is important when studying x inefficiency to account for differences across the markets in which banks are operating and that since x inefficiency is by construction a residual it will be particulary sensitive to omissions in the basic model

the economic side effects of dangerous drug announcements immediately prior to the passage of the 1962 food and drug administration amendments there were a number of drugs recalled from markets worldwide announcements about the dangerous side effects of these drugs were associated with lower share prices for their manufacturers and the industry as a whole we perform several analyses to sort out alternative explanations for the observed declines we find that dangerous drug announcements had no effect on the sales of other drugs and did not affect the share values of european drug makers doing little business in the united states we also find that share price reductions associated with recalls in the 1970s and 1980s were confined to the manufacturers of the recalled drugs these patterns are consistent with the hypothesis that drug company shareholders viewed the recalls in the early 1960s as signals of an increase in the cost of compliance with new and more stringent drug testing requirements

an examination of cost structure and production performance of commercial banks in singapore abstract this paper uses a parametric approach in the framework of a translog cost function and a non parametric approach in the framework of linear programming to examine production performance and cost structure of a sample of singaporean commercial banks the results of the parametric methodology suggest that the average cost curve of these banks is u shaped and there are economies of scale for small and medium size banks further analysis provides evidence of economies of scope for all banks regardless of their size the non parametric results indicate that the singaporean banks could have reduced cost by 43 had they all been overall efficient the sources of this cost inefficiency seem to be caused equally by allocative and technical inefficiencies

how important is the financial media in global markets this article studies differences in the information content of 870 000 news announcements in 56 markets around the world in most developed markets a firm s stock price moves much more on days with public news about the firm in contrast in many emerging markets volatility is similar on news and non news days we examine several hypotheses for our findings cross country differences in stock price reactions are best explained by insider trading followed by differences in the quality of the news dissemination mechanism our findings are useful for quantifying the extent of insider trading and how the financial media affects international markets jel g14 g15 public news announcements are a major mechanism for disseminating information to investors each day the financial media releases thousands of articles covering companies in markets worldwide investors use this news to estimate assets fundamental values despite the perceived importance of the

managers earnings forecasts and intra industry information transfers abstract the effect that voluntarily disclosed managers earnings forecasts have on the security prices of the announcing firms and other firms in the same industry is examined the results are consistent with information content in managers forecasts and with information transfer between forecast firms and other firms in the industry these inferences are drawn from firms abnormal returns computed from single and two index pricing models where the latter includes market and industry indexes interestingly while a positive information transfer is evident with market model residuals once industry cross sectional covariation in firms returns is removed no directional relation is apparent

sluggish quantity adjustment in a non clearing market a disequilibrium econometric application to the loan market the paper argues that the estimated speed of price adjustment in a disequilibrium econometric model is likely to be biased if allowance is not made for quantity adjustment inertia on both sides of the market furthermore if the model estimated is static rather than dynamic then in certain circumstances an excess demand regime may be mistaken for one of excess supply and vice versa in an empirical application to the loan market for the clearing banks in ireland we can claim to have obtained some support for this belief

do consumers pay for one stop banking evidence from an alternative revenue function abstract in providing financial services jointly banks may reduce costs due to complementarities in production cost economies of scope or raise revenues from complementarities in consumption revenue economies of scope cost economies of scope between bank deposits and loans have been found to be small revenue economies of scope are investigated here for the first time and found to be insignificant over 1978 1990 for both small and large banks and for those on or off the revenue efficient frontier the lack of complementarities between deposits and loans where benefits are most likely to occur suggests that claims of important synergies from an expansion of banking powers be taken with caution

an examination of cost subadditivity and multiproduct production in large u s banks this paper examines the subadditivity of costs for a sample of the largest commercial banks in the u s we introduce into the bank production literature the grid approach developed by evans and heckman 1984 we estimate two models of the bank cost function one where deposits are treated as outputs while in the other deposits are treated as inputs the models are estimated using the commonly used translog and the more flexible miniflex laurent viewed narrowly the findings imply that cost complementarities are not the raison d etre for multiproduct production in the largest commercial banks subadditive costs however are sufficient but not necessary for multiproduct production it is quite possible for multiproduct production to be optimal when output are produced independently levy and haber 1986 and teece 1980 1982 it is only required that inputs be shareable as opposed to joint copyright 1990 by ohio state university press

overreaction to intra industry information transfers prior research has documented that earnings announcements provide information not only about the announcing firm but also about other firms in the same industry we document a stock market anomaly associated with this phenomenon of intra industry information transfers by showing that the stock price movements of late announcers in response to earnings reported by early announcers are negatively related to subsequent price responses of late announcers to their own earnings reports apparently the stock market overestimates the intra industry implications of early announcers earnings for late announcers earnings and that overestimation is corrected when late announcers disclose their earnings

bank capitalization and cost evidence of scale economies in risk management and signaling we amend the standard cost model to account for the role of financial capital in banking the cost function is conditioned on the level of capital but we model the demand for financial capital so that it can serve as a cushion against insolvency for potentially risk averse managers and as a signal of risk for less informed outsiders scale economies are then computed without assuming that the bank chooses a level of capitalization that minimizes cost we find evidence of substantial scale economies and that bank managers are risk averse and use the level of financial capital to signal the level of risk

economies of diversification in the banking industry abstract this paper defines a new measure economies of diversification to examine the cost effect of product line expansion this measure is a special case of expansion path subadditivity and contains economies of scope as a special case a nonparametric frontier technique which isolates the effects of inefficiency and scale is used to measure economies of diversification applied to a set of 468 u s depository institutions operating in 1984 we find slight diseconomies of diversification diseconomies of diversification and inefficiency due to the overutilization of resources are found to be more important determinants of bank costs than is the failure to operate at optimal scale

production smoothing evidence from physical product data we reconsider the paradox that the variance of production often exceeds the variance of shipments a result that casts doubt on the production smoothing model of inventory behavior most studies of production smoothing have analyzed two digit sic dollar value data from commerce department surveys in contrast this paper examines disaggregated physical product data and finds that production is smoother than shipments in about two thirds of the 38 industry or product groupings considered however doubts about the model persist most notably euler equation estimates of the model s cost parameters are usually imprecise and often do not have the signs postulated by production smoothing models

comparison of two empirical cost functions abstract in this paper we compare two hypotheses regarding the cost function that have been used in past studies of production smoothing the two hypotheses tested are not nested the comparison is done using two types of tests designed for non nested hypotheses the j test of davidson and mckinnon and the encompassing test each of the models was capable of explaining much of the observed monthly output variations in the twenty four industries studied yet the j test leads us to reject both models the results of the encompassing test however indicate that each of the models contributes significantly to the explanation of output variation after accounting for the contribution of the alternative model

state passage of interstate banking legislation an analysis of firm legislative and economic characteristics abstract forty nine states and the district of columbia enacted legislation reducing interstate banking restrictions between july 1982 and april 1993 for these 50 banking bills deregulation increased the average price of bank stocks returns vary cross sectionally by firm characteristics regulatory features and economic conditions returns are positively related to the characteristics of acquisition targets furthermore returns are positively related to legislative features that increase the bargaining power of potential targets and economic conditions that are likely to encourage bank acquisition these findings are consistent with the relaxation of geographic restrictions increasing activity in the corporate control market

investment in finished goods inventories an analysis of adjustment speeds it is well known that fluctuations in inventory investment are a major source of fluctuations in gross national product this has stimulated numerous empirical studies designed to understand the causes of changes in inventory investment these studies include those for example michael lovell that utilize a flexible accelerator model of inventory behavior as well as those for example david belsley that utilize the linear decision rule approach to optimal inventory holding the latter approach however can be interpreted in terms of a flexible accelerator model see j c r rowley and p k trivedi for a survey of the literature recently several authors for example martin feldstein and alan auerbach observed that these studies yield very implausible empirical results the basic difficulty is that the estimates of the speed with which firms close gaps between desired and actual inventory stocks are very low often the estimated speed of adjustment is less than 10 percent per quarter as feldstein and auerbach stress this is extremely implausible when even the largest swings in inventories in a given quarter amount to less than one day s production the purpose of this paper is to undertake an analysis of adjustment speeds for finished goods inventory investment in our empirical work we utilize a modified flexible accelerator model of inventory investment 1 like the conventional flexible accelerator the model permits firms to close a fraction of the gap between desired and actual inventories in any period the relevant fraction is of course the adjustment coefficient and it may vary in principle between zero and unity our model differs from the conventional model in assuming that the desired stock of finished goods inventories depends on the normal levels of exogenous variables that firms must forecast to make decisions on inventory holdings these include not only the normal level or orders or demand which is a standard explanatory variable in the empirical literature but also the normal levels of real factor input prices and real interest rates in addition we permit the normal levels to change relatively slowly in response to changes in past levels of orders real factor input prices and real interest rates our objective is to investigate whether the slow adjustment speeds that have been estimated in the literature are due to the use of models which contain an incomplete menu of exogenous variables to determine desired inventories and pay inadequate attention to lags in the adjustment of normal levels of exogenous variables

the intra industry effects of going private transactions we demonstrate that bids to take firms private generate significantly positive valuation effects for industry rivals of target firms these valuation effects cannot reflect either synergy or monopoly since no consolidation of operating firms is involved in such transactions participation by buyout specialists in the bid does not significantly affect these gains bids by outsiders and bids by incumbent managers generate similar valuation effects for industry rivals the effect on share prices of industry rivals is inversely related to the capitalized values of rival firms relative to the target firm we also report valuation effects for target firms we examine the implications of going private bids for the valuation of horizontal rivals of target firms we hypothesize that going private transactions reflect in part private information held by the bidder about the target firm we argue that if the financial market perceives that elements of this private information are industry wide rather than firm specific the value of the target firm s horizontal rivals should change in response to the goingprivate bid announcement 1 unlike interfirm mergers and acquisitions going private transactions do not involve a consolidation of separate operating firms consequently changes in the value of rival firms induced by goingprivate bids are due neither to the demonstration of synergies associated with a consolidation of operating firms nor to the effects of induced monopoly or collusion 2 we also report valuation effects on target firms we find that announcements of going private bids generate statistically significant positive intra industry effects industry rivals of targets of goingprivate bids receive a positive 2 day average excess return of 1 32 which is statistically significant the average 2 day excess return to target firms is 17 35 and is statistically significant we test whether participation of

can the production smoothing model of inventory behavior be saved the production smoothing model of inventory behavior has a long and venerable history and theoretical foundations that seem very strong yet certain overwhelming facts seem not only to defy explanation within the production smoothing framework but actually to argue that the basic idea of production smoothing is all wrong most prominent among these is the fact that the variance of detrended production exceeds the variance of detrended sales this paper first documents the stylized facts then it derives the production smoothing model rigorously and explains how the model can be amended to make it consistent with the facts finally it reviews the theoretical and empirical evidence and tries to draw some tentative conclusions

cost efficiency in bangladesh banking does financial reform matter abstractthis article estimates the cost efficiency of the commercial banks of bangladesh in the context of financial reform employing the single stage stochastic frontier analysis sfa model the study uses a unique balanced panel data set comprising bank level annual data from the dominant commercial banks in bangladesh for the period 1983 2012 the results show that bank cost has fallen due to financial deregulation our results from the data envelopment analysis do not vary significantly that we obtained from the sfa in addition the presence of politically linked directors on the bank board has an adverse effect on efficiency these findings suggest that further reforms aiming at removing all sorts of political influence should continue to ensure competitive environment in order to achieve cost efficiency in the financial sector of the country

inventories and short run output stabilization empirical studies of the role played by production smoothing in determining inventory behavior have accounted for the production smoothing effect by the introduction of seasonal dummy variables and or the change in output as additional variables in the inventory equation lovell 7 192 93 has reviewed the empirical results of the studies by johnston modigliani and sauerlender and mills and also reported the results of his own investigation of the production smoothing effect the results of these studies lend very weak support to the empirical usefulness of the hypothesis on the other hand ghali 4 149 57 has produced some evidence strongly supporting the role of production smoothing in this paper a simple model of inventory behavior is developed under the assumption that the cost functions facing the firm are quadratic the model includes both the production smoothing and the buffer stock motives for holding stocks of finished goods the model is applied to monthly data for six industries and to ten pooled time seriescross section samples on one of the industries the results lend strong support to the effect of production smoothing on inventory behavior in the concluding section it is shown that the flexible accelerator model of inventory behavior is a special case of the production smoothing model developed modigliani 10 a summary of the results reported in this paper was presented at the first international symposium on inventories hungarian academy of science budapest august 1980 i am indebted to a referee of this journal and to my colleagues edwin fujii and burnham campbell for valuable comments and suggestions

cross firm real earnings management cross firm real earnings management our analysis is rooted in the notion that stockholders can learn about the fundamental value of any firm from observing the earnings reports of its rivals we argue that such intra industry information transfers which have been broadly documented in the empirical literature may motivate managers to alter stockholders beliefs about the value of their firm not only by manipulating their own earnings report but also by influencing the earnings reports of rival firms managers obviously do not have access to the accounting system of peer firms but they can nevertheless influence the earnings reports of rival firms by distorting real transactions that relate to the product market competition we demonstrate such managerial behavior which we refer to as cross firm real earnings management and explore its potential consequences and interrelation with the practice of accounting based earnings management within an industry setting with imperfect non proprietary accounting information this article is protected by copyright all rights reserved

estimating the linear quadratic inventory model maximum likelihood versus generalized method of moments abstract we compare generalized method of moments gmm and maximum likelihood ml estimators of the parameters of a linear quadratic inventory model using nondurable manufacturing data and monte carlo simulations data based gmm estimates for five normalizations vary widely generally rejecting the model the ml estimate generally supports the model monte carlo experiments reveal that the gmm estimates are often biased apparently due to poor instruments statistically insignificant economically implausible and dynamically unstable the ml estimates are generally unbiased even in misspecified models statistically significant economically plausible and dynamically stable asymptotic standard errors for ml are 3 to 15 times smaller than for gmm

intraindustry information transfers associated with management forecasts of earnings this study documents information transfers associated with the sign and magnitude of the changes in earnings expectations conveyed by management forecasts that is the management forecast of one firm discloser generates unexpected price reactions for firms nondisclosers similar to the forecaster the results are consistent with information transfers documented for releases of actual earnings foster 1981 and sales announcements olsen and dietrich 1985 1 these results build on prior management forecast research that has documented a link between the sign and magnitude of the changes in earnings expectations conveyed by management forecasts and the unexpected share returns price reactions of forecasting firms ajinkya and

evaluating the cost efficiency of the italian banking system what can be learned from the joint application of parametric and non parametric techniques abstract research on bank efficiency has developed in two separate streams econometric studies and data envelopment analysis a linear programming technique these two branches of literature have developed quickly but separately in this paper these two approaches have been tested on a common panel of 270 italian banks and this has suggested the following i econometric and linear programming results do not differ dramatically when based on the same data and conceptual framework ii when differences arise they can be explained by going back to the intrinsic features of the models moreover some findings on italian banks may be of interest also to the international reader i efficiency scores show a high variance ii the banking system is split in two between northern and southern banks iii there is a direct rather than inverse relationship between productive efficiency and asset quality iv the efficiency of italian banks did not increase over the period 1988 1992

international comparison of bank production characteristics and technological change in this paper we conduct an international comparison of bank production and technological characteristics the comparison is performed using novel evidence on changes in labour demand over the period 1980 89 for banks headquartered in canada france west germany italy japan and the united states the results suggest that there is relatively low substitutability of labour for capital in the production process of these banking organizations significant scale economies were found with regards to the expansion of output and the concomitant increase in labour in addition technological change operated to lower the quantity of inputs needed to produce a given level of outputs and increased the minimum efficient size bank over the sample period many of the production characteristics and technology effects varied significantly across countries these findings imply that intercountry differences in production characteristics and technological change should be explicitly recognized in bank strategic planning

inventories layoffs and the short run demand for labor this paper presents a theoretical and empirical analysis of the short run employment layoff and inventory strategies of firms on average more than two thirds of all layoffs in american manufacturing end in a rehire by the employer of origin martin feldstein 1975 david lilien 1980 these temporary layoffs have recently accounted for about half of all ongoing employer initiated spells of unemployment in that sector see table 1 and have led to a revised interpretation both of the involuntary nature of these separations costas azariadis 1975 feldstein 1976 martin baily 1977 and of the durability of employment relationships evidently a significant proportion of unemployed workers know that the conditions that generated their separations are temporary and so they expect to be recalled within some reasonable time the point of departure for this paper is in interpreting these findings as evidence of a privately and socially efficient stock of excess capacity held against contingent future demands that is as an inventory of a productive input this view leads to empirically refutable hypotheses regarding both the role of temporary layoffs and the circumstances under which they will be important in particular both excess capacity idle resources and inventories are devices by which firms may economize on the costs of rapid adjustments when faced with unstable market conditions george stigler 1939 in such an environment the demands for layoffs and for other buffer stocks are jointly determined elements of long run technology the choice among alternative stocks will depend on relative profitabilities and firms may choose to hold stocks of inputs as a substitute for inventory accumulation especially if the costs of varying capacity or of storage are important this reasoning implies that i the structure of short run employment and layoff decisions will vary across firms and industries and ii differences in these structures will be systematically related to the role of inventories in firms dynamic strategies some perspective is warranted at least since charles holt et al 1960 economists have recognized the production smoothing role of inventories and the necessity of predicting future demand in making current decisions david belsley 1969 gerald childs 1967 michael ward 1978 similarly one of the contributions of recent work on implicit labor contracts is in viewing the exchange of labor services as a bilateral and durable commitment both these lines of analysis are concerned with the methods firms use to respond to fluctuating demand yet the underlying interrelated nature of employment and inventory decisions has rarely been recognized roger miller 1968 m ishaq nadiri and sherwin rosen 1973 r g crawford 1979 robert hall 1972 this paper aims to provide a framework for evaluating these decisions and in so doing to explain some interesting features of observed labor markets the notion of substitution between inventories of human and physical capital suggests a more disaggregated look at the data table 2 shows the importance of temporary layoffs in the distribution of unemployment among manufacturing industries it reports layoff and total unemployment rates for twelve representative industries over the period 197376 and average layoff rates and recall frequencies for 1958 76 among all 21 twodigit manufacturing industries the correlation between layoff and rehire rates is 6 and the table illustrates this evidently industries with larger than normal layoff rates also tend to have larger rehire frequencies from firm initiated spells of unemployment this university of chicago i am indebted to gary becker robert cotterman sherwin rosen jose scheinkman michael ward finis welch the managing editor and an anonymous referee for discussions and comments at various stages the usual disclaimer applies

a positive theory of flexibility in accounting standards abstract we develop a positive theory of accounting standards when standards generate network externalities and differ in the amount of reporting discretion or flexibility they provide firms we evaluate expected value maximizing firms preferences between two standards regimes rigid and flexible as the number of firms subject to each standard varies as the organization of the securities market varies and as the mapping from the underlying economics of the firms transactions to the accounting reports produced under the two standards vary we also compare firms preferences between the two regimes to the preferences of profit maximizing traders in the firms securities

intra industry information transfers associated with earnings releases abstract the impact that a firm s earnings releases have on the stock prices of other firms in its industry is examined for an identifiable sub set of firms the results are consistent with a significant information transfer occurring between the earnings release firm and the other firms in its industry this subset is identified by examining the impact of the release on the stock price of the announcing firm the magnitude of this impact is more significant for a sample of firms which have a larger percentage of their revenues in the same line of business as the earnings release firm vis a vis a sample with a lower percentage of their revenues from the same line of business alternative interpretations of the empirical results are also discussed the research findings have implications for information content and market efficiency research and for research on policy issues associated with disclosure regulation

discussion of when does the peer information environment matter abstract shroff et al 2017 examine whether a richer peer information environment reduces the cost of capital for firms with limited firm specific information and whether this effect decreases as firm specific information becomes more prevalent although much of the evidence supporting their hypotheses is based on a small highly idiosyncratic sample of firms issuing initial public debt the authors provide corroborating evidence using samples of ipo and seo firms however two research design choices make it difficult to discern the nature of the peer information that substitutes for firm information hence the implications of the findings for disclosure regulation are limited

intra industry information releases a recursive systems approach abstract this paper investigates the extent of intra industry information transfers associated with the half yearly earnings announcements of a sample of australian firms the omitted factor interpretation of foster s 1981 results is examined using a recursive systems specification of the return generating process to model extra market return covariation in cross section although some aspects of the results do appear sensitive to the alternative methodologies the overall conclusion is consistent with foster 1981 and supports the existence of intra industry information transfers associated with firms earnings releases

an empirical analysis of the effect of monetary disequilibria in open economies abstract a dynamic disequilibrium simultaneous equation econometric model for france and west germany is set up estimated and simulated to consider the ways in which disequilibrium in the money markets is eliminated the results provide suggestive evidence to support the monetary approach to the balance of payments

differential intra industry information transfer associated with management earnings forecasts abstract this study proposes that the amount of information about one firm conveyed by management forecasts of another firm in the same industry depends on the earnings covariance between the two firms and the forecast firm s earnings variance the covariance reflects the competitive relation between the firms and the variance represents noise contained in forecasts when both variance and covariance are included in regressions nonforecast firms abnormal returns are associated with forecast firms abnormal returns when they are excluded no such association is observed the results are similar but much weaker when the independent variable is unexpected management forecasts

aggregation and testing of the production smoothing hypothesis this paper examines the aggregate implications of the production smoothing model the analysis indicates that aggregation can be a source of bias distorting tests of production smoothing based on the relative variance of production and sales it is shown that depending upon the relative variability of different types of market shocks firms face the aggregation bias can be so severe as to render the test of the production smoothing hypothesis invalid copyright 1991 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association