economies of scale in energy use in adult only households the residential sector is responsible for 18 of australia s primary energy use thus improved knowledge about household energy use is vital to future energy management this study examines economies of scale in energy use and expenditure among adult only households and across three adult only household types significant economies of scale are found in all cases small households suffer a double penalty of greater per capita energy use and higher charge per unit of energy with older households the most affected the trend towards smaller average household size means that economies of scale are continually being lost offsetting gains in energy efficiency achieved through other means

an economic theory of self control the concept of self control is incorporated in a theory of individual intertemporal choice by modeling the individual as an organization the individual at a point in time is assumed to be both a farsighted planner and a myopic doer the resulting conflict is seen to be fundamentally similar to the agency conflict between the owners and managers of a firm both individuals and firms use the same techniques to mitigate the problems which the conflicts create this paper stresses the implications of this agency model and discusses as applications the effect of pensions on saving saving and the timing of income flows and individual discount rates

analysis of the residential location choice and household energy consumption behavior by incorporating multiple self selection effects abstract it is expected that the residential location choice and household energy consumption behavior might correlate with each other besides due to the existence of self selection effects the observed inter relationship between them might be the spurious result of the fact that some unobserved variables are causing both these concerns motivate us to 1 consider residential location choice and household energy consumption behavior for both in home appliances and out of home cars simultaneously and 2 explicitly control self selection effects so as to capture a relatively true effect of land use policy on household energy consumption behavior an integrated model termed as joint mixed multinomial logit multiple discrete continuous extreme value model is presented here to identify the sensitivity of household energy consumption to land use policy by considering multiple self selection effects the model results indicate that land use policy do play a great role in changing beijing residents energy consumption pattern while the self selection effects cannot be ignored when evaluating the effect of land use policy based on the policy scenario design it is found that increasing recreational facilities and bus lines in the neighborhood can greatly promote household s energy saving behavior additionally the importance of soft policy and package policy is also emphasized in the context of beijing

home energy use in nine oecd countries 1960 1980 abstract government institutions and individuals have responded to fluctuations in energy supply and price with the implementation of policies and the initiation of conservation while these activities have resulted in noticeable conservation of energy primarily through behavioural actions further savings could be achieved through the exchange of information regarding promising policies and technologies toward this end data on residential sector energy use for nine oecd countries canada denmark france west germany italy japan sweden the uk and the usa have been collected over the period 1960 1980 and have been analysed using both indicators of energy use intensity and econometric methods

intertemporal trades and problems of self control abstract this paper develops a model which explains how individuals manage self control strategies for situations in which an average level of activity per unit time is what needs controlling the focus of the model is intertemporal trades times when for example a dieter decides to eat dessert with lunch by promising himself he will forego dessert at dinner self control is managed successfully by those who learn to complete such trades the paper analyzes the process of learning about the reliability of ones strategies for intertemporal trades

determinacy of equilibrium in stationary economies with both finite and infinite lived consumers abstract we consider the determinacy of perfect foresight equilibrium near steady state equilibria of stationary infinite horizon economies the work of t j kehoe and d k levine econometrica 53 1985 433 453 is generalized by the inclusion of both infinite lived agents and overlapping generations of finite lived agents and the inclusion of production and non depreciating pure rents we show that indeterminacy is possible in robust examples and that the dimension of the indeterminacy can be as large as the number of goods per period we also discuss extreme cases in which determinacy is guaranteed

interfuel competition in france and west germany abstract this article presents a simple and practical methodology to analyse the annual evolution of an energy market the point of departure is to evaluate the effects of interfuel substitution economic growth and energy efficiency on demand for each fuel the model should permit us to evaluate the annual changes in energy mix probably one of the concepts that casts most light is the one here called available market for competition that gives an adjusted picture of interfuel substitution the model has been used to study the household and industrial energy markets of france and west germany

discounting and long run behavior global bifurcation analysis of a family of dynamical systems abstract this paper is concerned with the relationship between the discount rate and the nature of long run behavior in dynamic optimization models the theory is developed under two conditions the first is history independence which rules out multiple limit sets the second is a condition that avoids the reversion to a stable steady state as the discount factor is lowered once cycles have emerged these conditions appear to be the minimal restrictions that would allow analysis by a bifurcation diagram the results are illustrated by two well known examples in this literature due to sutherland and weitzman samuelson journal of economic literature classification numbers c61 d90 041

interfuel competition in the industrial sector of seven oecd countries abstract the purpose of this article is to present an analysis of interfuel substitution in the industrial sector of seven major oecd countries the united states canada japan germany france the united kingdom and italy over the 1960 1993 period translog models are used to provide estimates of price elasticities from annual data for each country results outline the weakness of price elasticities and changes in behaviour over the last 35 years and show evidence of asymmetric effects since the collapse of oil prices in 1986 substitution has stopped industrial energy demand and oil consumption have stagnated interfuel substitution is widely induced by events other than relative price changes energy policy political and institutional constraints changes in economic activity characteristics within individual country sectors

decomposition analysis of the variations in residential electricity consumption in brazil for the 1980 2007 period measuring the activity intensity and structure effects abstract introduced at the end of the 1970s to study the impacts of structural changes on electricity consumption by industry index decomposition analysis techniques have been extended to various other areas to help in the formulation of energy policies notably in developed countries however few authors have applied these techniques to study the evolution of energy consumption in developing countries in brazil the few available studies have focused only on the industrial sector in this article we apply the decomposition technique called the logarithmic mean divisia index lmdi to electricity consumption of the brazilian residential sector to explain its evolution in terms of the activity structure and intensity affects over the period from 1980 to 2007 the technique is sufficiently robust and flexible to perform this analysis by disaggregating residential consumers by consumption classes and regions of the country among the main results is measurement of the impact of government programs for income transfer and universal service on variations in residential consumption typical of developing countries

on energy coefficients and ratios abstract this paper examines the methodological issues of the debates surrounding the problem of measuring energy consumption and the use of the concept of energy coefficients it also investigates the brookes hypothesis of a development effect on energy consumption the results suggest that when energy consumption is appropriately measured the energy coefficients are very consistent and fall steadily from high values tending asymptotically to one

residential energy demand in brazil by income classes issues for the energy sector abstract due to the lack of reliable statistical information the majority of analyses concerning the structure of developing countries energy market of developing countries do not disaggregate the demand by income classes this component offers important strategies for energy planning in these countries by making it possible to quantify the portions of society which have not entered the energy market and are more affected by internal energy price rises this approach also emphasizes that the bulk of energy is consumed by a small fraction of the population while a significant proportion of households do not benefit from energy services issues such as energy conservation pricing and energy distribution and the impact of technological changes must be dealt with differently in developing countries including the characteristics of the structure of their energy markets according to income classes

how many paychecks an example of a self imposed constraint i introduction the case of ulysses and the sirens is one of the most interesting puzzles for the model of rational behavior 1 ulysses knew enough about himself to know that he would not be able to control his behavior when under the spell of the sirens so he had himself bound to the mast had wax put into the ears of his crew and instructed them to completely disregard any gestures he might make it is reasonable to ask if ulysses knew enough to know that he would lose control when under the spell of the sirens why didn t he know enough to maintain control more generally if you are rational enough to know you are going to be irrational why can t you stop the irrationality apparently things are not so simple psychiatrist george ainslie 1975 1992 argues based upon a large body of experimental evidence in psychology that individuals have an inherent tendency to be myopic and this leads them to have to develop rules of behavior which limit options given the story of ulysses the process of imposing such constraints on oneself is sometimes called binding the christmas club is the traditional example of a self imposed constraint 2 the local credit union offers an account which has all of the attributes of the normal savings account and the added characteristic that the account holder cannot make any withdrawals until a specified date close to christmas given that the lack of flexibility inherent in the christmas club is combined with no compensating advantage of any sort e g higher interest rates standard analysis suggests the christmas club would have no takers but in fact there are many christmas club members 3 apparently a large number of individuals feel they cannot trust themselves to save money for christmas shopping in a normal savings account the christmas club gives them a way of tying their hands it is a self imposed constraint in this paper i examine behavior which might also be an example of a self imposed constraint at the college of william and mary a full time faculty member has the option of receiving her salary in eighteen equal payments over the nine month academic year or in twenty four equal payments over the entire year starting in september the twenty four month option has the look of a self imposed constraint 4 the faculty member who takes this option is foregoing interest earnings from a simple plan which deposits eighteen payments earns interest and finances the summer perhaps the faculty members who elect the twenty four payment option are like ulysses they know enough to know that they will not follow the plan they know enough to make a preference for the twenty four payment option is not necessarily evidence of a self imposed constraint taking eighteen payments squirreling away some of each payment and financing one s summer expenditures from what had accumulated during the academic year is a costly endeavor therefore a standard economic model based on transactions costs could also explain a preference for the twenty four payment option the purpose of this paper is to present a test of these two models ii theoretical analyses of the choice of the twenty four payment option a standard economic model the task at hand is to explain the demand for the twenty four payment option as compared to the eighteen payment option since the total salary is the same in both cases at any nonzero interest rate the present value of the eighteen payment option dominates the present value of the twenty four payment option this suggests that on a strict basis of economic rationality there would be no takers for the twenty four payment option at william and mary however over 67 percent of the faculty choose the twenty four payment option there is however a clear difficulty with simply comparing present values in this case such a comparison implicitly assumes that trips to the bank are costless a complete model should consider transactions costs

determinacy of equilibria in dynamic models with finitely many consumers abstract we consider a production economy with a finite number of heterogeneous infinitely lived consumers we show that if the economy is smooth enough equilibria are locally unique for almost all endowments we do so by converting the infinite dimensional fixed point problem stated in terms of prices and commodities into a finite dimensional negishi problem involving individual weights in a social value function by adding artificial fixed factors to utility and production functions we can write the equilibrium conditions equating spending and income for each consumer entirely in terms of time zero factor endowments and derivatives of the social value function

electricity output ratio and sectoral electricity use the case of east and southeast asian developing countries abstract continuing a recent line of investigation the relationship between electricity use and economic growth and the changes in the sectoral composition of electricity consumption are examined for eight developing countries in east and southeast asia it is found that the relative rate of growth of electricity consumption to gdp declined over time and there were no systematic variations in the sectoral composition of electricity use both over time and across countries

introduction to intertemporal equilibrium theory indeterminacy bifurcations and stability institute of economic research kyoto university yoshida honmachi sakyoku kyoto 606 japannishimura kier kyoto u ac jpthis paper provides an overview of the basic concepts of intertemporal equi librium theory and discusses the frameworks and techniques used in this subject it then goes on to introduce the main themes discussed in the papers included inthis symposium issue journal of economic literature classification numbers c61 d90 o41

comparative statics and perfect foresight in infinite horizon economies does a pure exchange economy with an infinite time horizon have determinate perfect foresight equilibria when there is a finite number of infinitely lived agents equilibria are generically determinate this is not true with overlapping generations of finitely lived agents we ask whether the initial conditions together with the requirement of convergence to a steady state locally determine an equilibrium price path in this framework there are many economies with isolated equilibria many with continua of equilibria and many with no equilibria at all with two or more goods in every period not only can the price level be indeterminate but relative prices as well furthermore such indeterminacy can occur whether or not there is fiat money and whether or not the equilibria are pareto efficient this paper considers whether infinite horizon economies have determinate perfect foresight equilibria this question is of crucial importance if instead equilibria are locally indeterminate not only are we unable to make comparative static predictions but the agents in the model are unable to determine the consequences of unanticipated shocks the idea underlying perfect foresight is that agents expectations should be the actual future sequence predicted by the model if the model does not make determinate predictions the concept of perfect foresight is meaningless we consider two extreme cases the first with a finite number of infinitely lived consumers and the second with an infinite number of finitely lived consumers an overlapping generations model both are models of stationary pure exchange economies no production including the storage of goods between periods can occur these models are unrealistic but are the easiest to study extensions of the results of this paper to models with production infinitely lived assets and mixtures of the two types of consumers are presented by muller and woodford 29 when there is a finite number of infinitely lived consumers we argue that equilibria are generically determinate this is because the effective number of equations determining equilibria is not infinite but equal to the number of agents minus one and must determine the marginal utility of income for all but one agent generically near an equilibrium these equations are independent and exactly determine the unknowns when there are infinitely many overlapping generations this reasoning breaks down an infinite number of equations is not necessarily sufficient to determine

determinacy of equilibrium in an overlapping generations model with heterogeneous agents abstract we study the determinacy of perfect foresight equilibrium near a steady state in an overlapping generations model with production and both altruistic and non altruistic agents having distinct utility functions the proportion of each type of consumer is exogenously given our main results show that when there are positive stationary bequests some standard assumptions on preferences and technology rule out local indeterminacy for any positive value of the proportions in the particular case of a separable utility function for altruistic agents we prove that the determinacy property does not depend on the size of the infinite lived altruistic dynasties journal of economic literature classification numbers c62 d91 o21 o41

procrastination and obedience in this lecture i shall focus on situations involving repeated decisions with time inconsistent behavior although each choice may be close to maximizing and therefore result in only small losses the cumulative effect of a series of repeated errors may be quite large thus in my examples decision makers are quite close to the intelligent well informed individuals usually assumed in economic analysis but cumulatively they make seriously wrong decisions that do not occur in standard textbook economics this lecture discusses and illustrates several pathological modes of individual and group behavior procrastination in decision making undue obedience to authority membership of seemingly normal individuals in deviant cult groups and escalation of commitment to courses of action that are clearly unwise in each case individuals choose a series of current actions without fully appreciating how those actions will affect future perceptions and behavior the standard assumption of rational forwardlooking utility maximizing is violated the nonindependence of errors in decision making in the series of decisions can be explained with the concept from cognitive psychology of undue salience or vividness for example present benefits and costs may have undue salience relative to future costs

evolution of an aging society and effect on residential energy demand the development of an aged society paired with a growing number of elderly households is expected to increase residential energy demand this study is designed to analyze various factors which determine the energy demand of elderly households and to predict the future of residential energy consumption in an aging society in addition comparing the factors with those in western countries which contain a population of increasing age we try to clarify characteristics of the elderly and residential energy demand then propose possible future subjects for study

conservation potential of compact fluorescent lamps in india and brazil abstract we evaluate the conservation potential of compact fluorescent lamps cfls for managing the rapidly increasing electrical energy and peak demand in india and brazil the analysis is undertaken from the three separate perspectives of the national economies the consumers and the utilities we find that because residential electricity is subsidized the consumers have little or no incentive to purchase and install the cfls unless they too are subsidized however the benefits of cfl installation to the utility are so large that subsidizing them is a paying proposition for the utility in almost all cases we then explore the barriers to immediate large scale introduction of these lamps in the two countries specific technical and marketing problems are identified and discussed which would require solution before such an introduction can be attempted lastly we list the range of policy instruments in addition to a subsidy scheme that can be used for promoting the diffusion of these lamps in the domestic and commercial sectors

introduction to a general equilibrium approach to economic growth abstract endogenous growth theory has had some success in explaining the observed data related to the process of economic growth however the results of the models in this literature are typically very sensitive to their micro economic structure it is therefore important to understand how the growth process behaves under more general specifications of such features as the number of commodities the number and preferences of consumers the factors of production and the financial and information structures in other words valuable insights can be gained by integrating growth theory into the framework of general equilibrium theory the summary of the papers in this volume focuses on seven issues that are crucial to this integration and highlights the contributions of the papers to the resolution of these issues journal of economic literature classification numbers c61 d50 d90 f43 o30 o41

an indirect utility model of car ownership and private car use abstract in this paper a model is developed for the simultaneous determination of private car ownership and private car use measured as the annual number of kilometers this model is a micro economic utility model in which the fixed and variable car costs enter through the budget restriction this allows us to do micro simulations of increasing those costs which is a policy issue in the netherlands it turns out that in this model both fixed and variable car costs are effective measures for reducing traffic growth the former working primarily through decreasing car ownership levels the latter having a more direct effect on car use

time saving innovations time allocation and energy use evidence from canadian households abstract time and energy are major inputs into the production of household goods and services as a result the market penetration of time saving technologies for general household use is expected to affect both a household s i allocation of time across home production and leisure activities and ii energy use for example with a household s adoption of a microwave or a dishwasher cooking food and washing dishes will require less time and therefore in home meal preparation may increase households with microwaves or dishwashers may also opt to spend more time undertaking other production activities inside or outside the home or engage in more leisure watching tv reading exercising to the extent that time is reallocated from less to more energy intensive activities in the home residential energy use will increase as households adopt appliances that embody time saving technology furthermore an adoption of time saving technologies for basic household chores such as meal preparation and laundry can impact energy use due to the fact that many time saving technologies are more energy intensive than alternative technologies that require larger time commitments in this paper we use the canadian survey of household energy use data from 2003 to examine the extent to which ownership of products that embody time saving innovations affects time allocation and energy use at the household level

self command in practice in policy and in a theory of rational choice an increasingly familiar occurrence for obstetricians is being asked by patients to withhold anesthesia during delivery the physician often proposes that a facemask be put beside the patient who may inhale nitrous oxide as she needs it but some determined patients ask that no such opportunity be provided if gas is available they will use it and they want not to be able to the request is interesting for decision theory and raises questions of ethics policy and physician responsibility even if the woman is merely making a mistake if she simply does not know how painful labor will be and how glad she will be even in retrospect if the pain is relieved but some women who make this request have had earlier deliveries during which they demanded anesthesia and received it they are acquainted with the pain they anticipate asking for relief and they want it withheld when they do they expect to regret afterwards any recourse to anesthesia this particular instance of attempted selfdenial has features that are special but many that are common the woman is so far as we know in good health physically and mentally she anticipates a transient period when her usual values and preferences will be suspended or inaccessible she has reasons for wanting to frustrate her own wishes at the critical time she needs cooperation she may ratify her choice afterward by expressing herself grateful that no anesthesia was offered even when requested there are ethical dilemmas and legal issues and there is conflict if say the husband disagrees with the physician in the delivery room about what his wife really wants

oil supply disruptions and modelling methodologies the role of lp models abstract this paper has three main objectives first an argument is made that oil vulnerability is not a problem of the past but remains a significant concern for all oil consuming countries especially beyond 1990 second it is suggested that the severity of past disruptions can be attributed in part to physical and institutional constraints that prevented the oil market from reacting quickly to what were relatively minor supply disruptions the currently changing structure of the world oil market in particular the evolving sales agreements under which an increasing percentage of world oil is traded and the vertical integration of major opec members into areas such as refining could decrease the ability of the market to adjust to future disruptions third it is suggested that linear programming lp models offer unique capabilities in assessing the degree to which the world and domestic oil markets could adjust to short term supply disruptions given constraints on transport trade and refining possibilities imposed by the physical structures of those market sectors or by control of those sectors by increasingly powerful producing countries the assessment of this flexibility will help pinpoint areas needing attention and also contribute indirectly to the evaluation of short run demand elasticities for world oil the us department of energy s petroleum allocation pal model is used as an example of one lp model that can address such issues

a spatial temporal model of human capital accumulation abstract we develop an overlapping generations model of human capital accumulation and analyze its spatial and temporal properties the interplay between local spillovers of human capital and global market participation partitions the society into socio economic classes we focus upon stationary equilibria and show that a large class of them are locally stable stationary equilibria can be homogeneous where the human capital distribution is degenerate or stratified with a distinct spatial pattern of human capital distribution we provide several examples and specify conditions under which equilibria are sensitive to the spatial structure of the society we illustrate our results by numerical simulations journal of economic literature classification numbers d90 i21 j24 o15

environmentally sustainable household consumption from aggregate environmental pressures to priority fields of action unsustainable consumption patterns of the north or rather of the global affluent consumers class have been identified by agenda 21 as one of the key driving forces behind the unsustainable development however neither accounting based on the system of national accounts sna nor household economics provide the proper instruments to assess the environmental impact of household decision making eco efficiency assessments as familiar in the business sector provide no appropriate tool for households as an alternative an environmental space based assessment scheme is suggested covering the major pressures on the environment caused by household decisions the methodology is used twice once to analyse the environmental relevance of the main activity clusters of household consumption and once to identify the dominant acts of consumption within each cluster the latter provide the basis for deriving environmental performance indicators a rough analysis of household influence potentials permits to identify housing eating and mobility as the three priority fields for action for minimising the environmental impact of households extending the influence analysis actor matrixes are derived allocating influence and thus responsibility for environmental pressures to different groups of economic agents

the perils of taylor rules abstract since john taylor s 1993 carnegie rochester conf ser publ policy39 195 214 seminal paper a large literature has argued that active interest rate feedback rules that is rules that respond to increases in inflation with a more than one for one increase in the nominal interest rate are stabilizing in this paper we argue that once the zero bound on nominal interest rates is taken into account active interest rate feedback rules can easily lead to unexpected consequences specifically we show that even if the steady state at which monetary policy is active is locally the unique equilibrium typically there exist an infinite number of equilibrium trajectories originating arbitrarily close to that steady state that converge to a liquidity trap that is a steady state in which the nominal interest rate is near zero and inflation is possibly negative journal of economic literature classification numbers e52 e31 e63

optimal environmental management in the presence of irreversibilities abstract we consider an environment of a fixed size that can be converted to another use this conversion can be made in steps but it is irreversible the future benefits per unit from the original use and from the alternative use follow a diffusion process for a fairly general case we show that the value function must be the unique viscosity solution to the associated hamilton jacobi bellman equation we also exhibit several properties of the solution for the case of constant relative risk aversion between 0 and 1 and a log linear diffusion for the benefits journal of economic literature classification numbers c61 d90 q30

a quantile approach to assess the effectiveness of the subsidy policy for energy efficient home appliances evidence from rizhao china abstract a one year subsidy program for energy efficient home appliances has been implemented in china we construct a dataset consisting of participant and non participant households in both urban and rural areas of rizhao city by applying a quantile regression and counterfactual analysis this study disentangles the impact of this subsidy program and inherent household attributes on per capita residential electricity consumption first contrary to the mean regression the elasticity of electricity consumption to household s income age education and energy saving awareness varies markedly across the electricity consumption distribution and shows discrepancy between urban and rural areas second while inherent household attributes are identified as a primary determinant to the changes in residential electricity consumption the effect induced by the subsidy incentive is more significant at the middle of the electricity consumption distribution than at the tails third there are significant rebound effects that lead to overall increase in household electricity consumption our results suggest that the disparity between urban and rural regions and targeted consumer behavior changes should be taken into account to ensure the effectiveness of a future energy efficient subsidy program

understanding the energy gdp elasticity a sectoral approach abstract this paper uses per capita data for 132 countries over 1960 2010 to estimate elasticities of sectoral energy use with respect to national gross domestic product gdp we estimate models in both levels and growth rates and use our estimates to sectorally decompose the aggregate energy gdp elasticity our estimates show that residential energy use is very inelastic to gdp if primary solid biofuels are counted in energy use tallies especially at low income levels residential use of electricity is more tightly linked to gdp as is energy use by the transportation industrial and services sectors agriculture typically accounts for a small share of energy use and has a modest energy gdp elasticity the aggregate energy gdp elasticity tends to be higher for countries at higher income levels in large part because traditional use of primary solid biofuels is less important gasoline prices winter temperature population and land area are among other factors influencing sectoral energy use

intertemporal separability in overlapping generations models abstract in a pure exchange overlapping generations model with many goods but a single consumer with preferences separable between two periods of life there are generically finitely many equilibria in which money has no value if money has value then generically there is at most one dimension of indeterminacy this property does not generalize to a model with many consumers and general preferences it is shown why a separable representative consumer implies such strong conclusions it is also shown that the absence of income effects leads to similar results

intertemporally separable overlapping generations economies abstract intertemporally separable overlapping generations economies typically have a sequentially finite number of equilibria though the equilibrium set may even with probability 1 be uncountable

energy output ratios and sectoral energy use the case of southeast asian countries abstract the relation between energy consumption and output is studied for six developing economies in southeast asia the changing structure of energy demands by consuming sectors and the effects of this on energy output ratios are analysed it is found that the commercial energy output ratio increased for most of the period between 1960 and 1982 the five factors responsible for the increasing ratio of commercial energy to output ratio were the rising share of industrial output in gdp the substitution of commercial for non commercial fuels the strong demand for transportation energy use the rise in electricity demand in the household commercial sector and the expansion of the energy conversion industries there were systematic variations in the composition of energy uses by sectors both over time and across countries the basic features observed at a sectoral level also support the validity of the five factors mentioned above

the duration of the smoking habit i introduction most smokers smoke out of habit once the habit is ended many of smoking s most harmful effects decline rather quickly preventing and ending cigarette addiction is therefore the straightest path toward preventing the health damage done by cigarette smoking consequently the related questions of why people start smoking and why they quit are central to formulating and evaluating effective antismoking policies duration or hazard models are designed to measure the probability of transition between states and are thus ideal for investigating the structural determinants of the transition between addiction and non addiction nevertheless most previous work in the economics literature uses the aggregate smoking participation rate defined as the percentage of people who currently smoke or an individual s probability of participation rather than a hazard rate to measure the attractiveness of habitual smoking this paper models the hazard rates of both starting and quitting the cigarette smoking habit the starting hazard rate is the probability that an individual will start smoking in a given time period conditional on being a nonsmoker until then the quitting hazard rate is the probability of quitting smoking in a given time period conditional on being a smoker since the starting date both of these rates should rise and fall in response to changes in the attractiveness of smoking the two rates will respond differently to different stimuli since the starting hazard reflects the point of view of nonsmokers and the quitting hazard reflects the point of view of smokers hazard or duration models possess several advantages over smoking participation models most obviously smoking participation rates cannot directly distinguish between increased starting rates and decreased quitting rates but the hazard models can also in a participation rate model it is difficult to control for the effect of the duration of the habit whereas duration models are designed specifically to allow for and measure the dependence of the hazard rate on duration another advantage is that the participation rate at any one time will oversample the number of long term smokers relative to those who had a short term habit whereas a duration model is designed to avoid this source of bias one drawback however is that because of their inherent panel nature the data requirements of duration models are somewhat more difficult to satisfy as shall be seen the only previous work in the economics literature that estimates the hazard rate of starting smoking is douglas and hariharan 1994 my paper improves upon douglas and hariharan in at least three important ways first it estimates the hazard rate of quitting smoking as well as that of starting second it takes into account variation in state level regulation third its time varying covariate model allows hazard rates to respond dynamically to changes in cigarette price regulation and information variables the use of time varying covariates is important because it brings the empirical model into much closer accord with theory the decision whether or not to start or quit smoking is an ongoing decision made one day at a time on the basis of current information the hazard of starting is greatest when the cost of the habit appears lowest and its benefit appears highest this comparison of cost and benefit changes through time as price information income and life cycle variables change while douglas and hariharan 1994 used price information from the potential smoker s most vulnerable age on the theory that its marginal effect is greatest at that time the model used in this paper allows each individual s hazard rate to respond to changes in price and public information as they occur the leading theoretical model of the decision to smoke is the rational addiction model of becker and murphy 1988 which assumes that consumers of addictive goods begin smoking only after fully weighing the costs and benefits of the habit

energy use and appliance ownership in ireland abstract this paper examines household energy use and appliance ownership in ireland logit regression analyses on a large micro dataset reveal how household characteristics can help explain the ownership of energy using appliances using ols regression models we explore the factors affecting residential energy demand conditional on appliance ownership results suggest that the methods of space and water heating employed by a household are even more important than electrical appliances in explaining domestic energy usage however the stock of appliances must be included in such models so that results will not be biased the methods employed in this paper can be easily adopted for studies of household energy use in other countries where household expenditure survey data are available

growth cycles and market crashes abstract market booms are often followed by dramatic falls to explain this requires an asymmetry in the underlying shocks a straightforward model of technological progress generates asymmetries that are also the source of growth cycles assuming a representative consumer we show that the stock market generally rises punctuated by occasional dramatic falls with high risk aversion bad news causes dramatic increases in prices bad news does not correspond to a contraction of existing production possibilities but to a slowdown in its expansion this economy provides a model of endogenous growth cycles in which recoveries and recessions are dictated by the adoption of innovations journal of economic literature classification numbers o40 g12 o41 o30

on intertemporal selfishness how the perceived instability of identity underlies impatient consumption how does the anticipated connectedness between one s current and future identity help explain impatience in intertemporal preferences the less consumers are closely connected psychologically to their future selves the less willing they will be to forgo immediate benefits in order to ensure larger deferred benefits to be received by that future self when consumers measured or manipulated sense of continuity with their future selves is lower they accept smaller sooner rewards wait less in order to save money on a purchase require a larger premium to delay receiving a gift card and have lower long term discount rates

the structure of electricity demand in the brazilian household sector abstract the present structure of residential electricity demand is analysed by electricity consumption classes and end uses nearly 70 of households consume less than 150 kwh month and are responsible for 35 of total residential demand other determinants of electricity use such as income and place of residence are also discussed it is found that electricity demand is increasing faster than income as the country reaches appliances saturation in upper consumption levels water heating and refrigeration account for the major part of residential consumption residential conservation efforts have started introducing more efficient lighting equipment and refrigerators but further work will have to be done to speed up the diffusion of efficient technology at costs that can be paid by consumers

oil trends and prices in the next decade an aggregate analysis abstract in 1973 the oecd required about 0 5 tonnes of oil for the production of 1000 of output ten years after in 1983 for the production of output the requirements for oil had dropped to slightly over 0 3 tonnes this dramatic decline in the oil intensity of the oecd economy has led to a new era of oil oversupply marked by soft oil prices and uncertainty about the future market for petroleum products

a cross sectional analysis of energy output correlation abstract the nature of the correlation between energy consumption and output is examined based on cross sectional data for 100 countries the bias in the correlation due to the use of nominal income and to the convention adopted in measuring non commercial energy consumption is analysed it is found that when real income is used and non commercial energy consumption measured in commercial energy replacement value the cross sectional energy elasticity increases rapidly from about unity for the low income developing countries to between 1 6 and 1 8 for the high income developing countries and declines marginally thereafter in the industrial country income range the results show certain disparity on energy output ratio across countries with higher income countries consuming disproportionately more energy per unit of real output

representing in home and out of home energy consumption behavior in beijing abstract it is expected that in home and out of home energy consumption behavior in a household might be correlated with each other probably due to the existence of household budget constraints ownership and usage of energy saving technologies for in home appliances or vehicles might lead to the increase in out of home or in home energy consumption it is therefore necessary to jointly represent in home and out of home energy consumption in the same modeling framework with this consideration we first build a new type of energy consumption model based on the multiple discrete continuous extreme value mdcev modeling framework next we conducted a questionnaire survey in beijing in 2009 and successfully collected the information about households energy consumption ownership usage of in home appliances and vehicles and households and their members attributes from 1014 households throughout an empirical analysis it is confirmed that the mdcev model is effective to simultaneously describe the in home and out of home energy consumption behavior in addition it is revealed that a set of household and personal attributes affect the ownership and usage of in home appliances and vehicles furthermore it is shown that the unobserved factors play a much more important role in explaining energy consumption behavior than the observed attributes of households and their members

distributional effects of alternative vehicle pollution control policies abstract previous work shows that policies that subsidize new vehicles and tax size miles or gasoline efficiently reduce pollution less is known about their distributional effects this paper examines distributional effects by estimating the joint demand for vehicles and miles using the consumer expenditure survey greater price responsiveness among low income households enhances progressivity of gas or miles taxes across lower incomes and mitigates regressivity across upper incomes taxes on engine size or subsidies to new vehicles are significantly more regressive than gas or miles taxes