reduction potentials of energy demand and ghg emissions in china s road transport sector abstract rapid growth of road vehicles private vehicles in particular has resulted in continuing growth in china s oil demand and imports which has been widely accepted as a major factor effecting future oil availability and prices and a major contributor to china s ghg emission increase this paper is intended to analyze the future trends of energy demand and ghg emissions in china s road transport sector and to assess the effectiveness of possible reduction measures a detailed model has been developed to derive a reliable historical trend of energy demand and ghg emissions in china s road transport sector between 2000 and 2005 and to project future trends two scenarios have been designed to describe the future strategies relating to the development of china s road transport sector the business as usual scenario is used as a baseline reference scenario in which the government is assumed to do nothing to influence the long term trends of road transport energy demand the best case scenario is considered to be the most optimized case where a series of available reduction measures such as private vehicle control fuel economy regulation promoting diesel and gas vehicles fuel tax and biofuel promotion are assumed to be implemented energy demand and ghg emissions in china s road transport sector up to 2030 are estimated in these two scenarios the total reduction potentials in the best case scenario and the relative reduction potentials of each measure have been estimated

modelling the transport sector fuel demand for developng economies abstract this paper concentrates on the transport sector of six developing countries with similar common denominators namely turkey thailand pakistan morocco tunisia and malaysia by using standard econometric techniques we analyse the evolution of oil demand for road transport in these countries in relation to independent variables such as income population price of gasoline and diesel etc unlike the treatment in the present literature on the subject gasoline and diesel consumption are estimated separately due to the high share of diesel in the total transport sector consumption on the basis of the estimation over the period 1970 1990 on a country by country basis we forecast the demand for these six countries until 2010 the results of this study indicate that the transport sector will be the driving force for energy and oil demand as part of economic growth in these developing countries its share in the future energy market structure is expected to grow consequently the pricing policies of oil products in this sector have a crucial role for shaping rational economic and energy strategies within the framework of rising environmental concern

the demand for gasoline abstract sufficient time must be allowed to elapse to assess fully the response of gasoline demand to price changes hitherto empirical work on the subject has generally not examined the period beyond 1975 moreover the extant time series studies concentrate almost exclusively on the usa this study extends both the observation period and the country coverage a vehicle stock adjustment model is estimated via its reduced form without explicit consideration of the vehicle stock itself however the estimation procedure incorporates the structure by way of constraints on the parameters cross section analysis offers additional evidence concerning the truly long run price elasticity the results suggest that there is no need to resort to elaborate models to explain adequately gasoline demand gasoline demand exhibits a long run price elasticity near unity with time lags exceeding six years while there is tentative evidence that the duration of these lags is not fixed

entry deterrence in stackelberg perfect equilibria this paper examines entry deterrence in a duopoly where the postentry game is stackelberg it is argued that in reality firms can use a broader range of precommitments than is allowed for in the literature this paper permits such precommitments and analyzes the perfect equilibria it also allows for the fact that there may be fixed costs associated not only with entry but with beginning production several interesting possibilities are explained including the existence of excess capacity and the holding of inventories even in the absence of any uncertainty copyright 1990 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

taxation of petroleum products theory and empirical evidence the domestic taxation of petroleum products is an important source of revenue in most countries however there is a wide variation of tax rates on petroleum products across countries which cannot be explained by economic theory alone this paper surveys different considerations advanced for taxing petroleum and presents petroleum tax rate data in 120 countries

world transport energy demand modelling methodology and elasticities abstract this paper presents the international energy agency s iea approach of modelling transport energy demand fuel demand which is not a demand per se is derived whenever possible from the economic activity in the transport sector and not estimated directly ie using one equation or simultaneous equation system in general the transport models employ a two step approach in the first step transport activity the sector s relevant energy service is estimated econometrically in the second step the transport activity projections are then combined with estimates of efficiency improvements car turnover rates and diesel gasoline penetration assumptions in order to arrive at projections of fuel demand the principal advantages of this approach are that the relevant energy services are modelled and that for model simulation efficiency improvements can be dealt with explicitly the effectiveness of economic instruments is a function of the reaction of consumers and businesses to income and price changes an in depth understanding of income and price elasticities of transport demand and transport energy demand is important in order to be able to assess the effectiveness of policies considered the paper also shows the underlying long term income and price elasticities for oecd and non oecd regions

modelling future private car energy demand in ireland abstract targeted measures influencing vehicle technology are increasingly a tool of energy policy makers within the eu as a means of meeting energy efficiency renewable energy climate change and energy security goals this paper develops the modelling capacity for analysing and evaluating such legislation with a focus on private car energy demand we populate a baseline car stock and car activity model for ireland to 2025 using historical car stock data the model takes account of the lifetime survival profile of different car types the trends in vehicle activity over the fleet and the fuel price and income elasticities of new car sales and total fleet activity the impacts of many policy alternatives may only be simulated by such a bottom up approach which can aid policy development and evaluation the level of detail achieved provides specific insights into the technological drivers of energy consumption thus aiding planning for meeting climate targets this paper focuses on the methodology and baseline scenario baseline results for ireland forecast a decline in private car energy demand growth 0 2 compared with 4 in the period 2000 2008 caused by the relative growth in fleet efficiency compared with activity

screening in a matching market contract design under incomplete information is often analysed in a bilaterally monopolistic setting if the informed party s reservation value does not depend on its private information its type it is a standard result that the uninformed side offers low types distorted contracts to reduce the information rent left to high types we challenge this result by embedding contract design in a matching market environment we consider a market where players meet pairwise and where in each match either side may be chosen to make a take it or leave it offer as frictions become sufficiently low we find that the set of equilibria is independent of whether there is complete or incomplete information in particular all contracts are free of distortions

the limits of human development and the use of energy and natural resources the development of nations is an unquestionable requirement a lot of challenges concerning health education and economy are present a discussion on these development models has occupied the minds of decision makers in recent years when energy supply and demand is considered the situation becomes critical and the crucial question is how to improve the quality of life of developing countries based on available models of development that are related to the life style of developed countries for which the necessary use and waste of energy are present how much energy is essential to humanity for not so as to endangering the survival conditions of future generations the human development index hdi establishes the relationship among energy use economic growth and social growth here it can be seen that 75 of the world population has a significant energy consumption potential this is a strong reason to consider that the sustainable development concepts on energy policies are strategic to the future of the planet this paper deals with the importance of seeking alternative development models for human development balance natural resources conservation and environment through rational energy use concepts

an analysis of gasoline demand elasticities at the national and local levels in mexico abstract the majority of evidence on gasoline demand elasticities is derived from models based on national data since the largest growth in population is now taking place in cities in the developing world it is important that we understand whether this national evidence is applicable to demand conditions at the local level the aim of this paper is to estimate and compare gasoline per vehicle demand elasticities at the national and local levels in mexico national elasticities with respect to price income vehicle stock and metro fares are estimated using both a time series cointegration model and a panel gmm model for mexican states estimates for mexico city are derived by modifying national estimates according to mode shares as suggested by graham and glaister 2006 and by estimating a panel within groups model with data aggregated by borough although all models agree on the sign of the elasticities the magnitudes differ greatly elasticities change over time and differ between the national and local levels with smaller price responses in mexico city in general price elasticities are smaller than those reported in the gasoline demand surveys a pattern previously found in developing countries the fact that income and vehicle stock elasticities increase over time may suggest that vehicles are being used more intensively in recent years and that mexico city residents are purchasing larger vehicles elasticities with respect to metro fares are negligible which suggests little substitution between modes finally the fact that fuel efficiency elasticities are smaller than vehicle stock elasticities suggests that vehicle stock size rather than its composition has a larger impact on gasoline consumption in mexico city

pricing regulation under bypass competition we analyze optimal pricing policies in local telecommunications subject to bypass for the access of long distance carriers we first consider the case of a regulated monopoly that operates the local network and has access to an additional technology bypass more efficient for large customers we then study how competition in bypass affects the optimal nonlinear pricing policy and the resulting allocation when transfers are allowed between the regulator and the network operator bypass competition benefits consumers at the expense of the taxpayer otherwise it benefits large consumers but hurts small ones

fuel consumption in road transport a comparative study of china and oecd countries abstract energy conservation and emissions reduction have been the focus of the road transport sector due to its energy intensive and air pollution intensive nature it also embodies the imprints of human technological progress this paper compares the energy consumption of the road transport sector in china and oecd countries we used time series and panel data co integration analysis error correction model and dynamic model to study the impacts of the major influencing factors such as income income structure urbanization price and technological advancement on gasoline and diesel consumption in road transport overall china s fuel consumption is influenced mainly by investment government expenditure and demographic changes such as urbanization while the fuel consumption of oecd countries is mainly driven by household final consumption expenditure in the short run and from a dynamic perspective china s fuel consumption is less influenced by its historical consumption than current influencing factors while that of oecd countries is more affected by historical fuel consumption based on the analysis and findings of this study some policy implications are proposed

a theory of market structure with sequential entry this article sets out a theory of market structure with sequential entry we characterize the perfect nash equilibrium to the entry game in several propositions first equilibria never involve excess capacity second a sufficient statistic for the entry of any firm is that its profits are positive when computed myopically i e with no further entry third the equilibrium number of firms is the smallest number that can deter entry fourth aggregate output in equilibrium is no smaller than the limit output we calculate some explicit solutions to the model and examine comparative static properties

validating energy oriented cge models although cge models have received heavy usage they are often criticized as being insufficiently validated key parameters are often not econometrically estimated and the performance of the model as a whole is rarely checked against historical outcomes as a consequence questions frequently arise as to how much faith one can put in cge results in this paper we employ a novel approach to the validation of a widely utilized global cge model gtap e by comparing the variance of model generated petroleum price distributions driven by historical demand and supply shocks to the model with observed five year moving average price distributions we conclude that energy demand in gtap e is far too price elastic over this time frame after incorporating the latest econometric estimates of energy demand and supply elasticities we revisit the validation question and find the model to perform more satisfactorily as a further check we compare a deterministic global general equilibrium simulation based on historical realizations over the 2001 2006 period during which petroleum prices rose sharply along with growing global energy demands as anticipated by the stochastic simulations the revised model parameters perform much better than the original gtap e parameters in this global general equilibrium context

empirical assessment of the determinants of road energy demand in greece this paper attempts to cast light on the determinants of road energy demand in greece for this purpose we used cointegration techniques and vector autoregression var analysis in order to capture short run and long run dynamics for gasoline and diesel demand respectively from the empirical analysis that covers the period 1978 2003 we find that in the long run gasoline energy demand appears to be price and income inelastic while diesel demand appears to be price inelastic and income elastic we also found that the absence of close substitutes in the road sector denotes the low level of energy switching in greece

strategic entry deterrence in analyzing deterrence of large scale entry two classes of entry barriers may be distinguished an innocent entry barrier is unintentionally erected as a side effect of innocent profit maximization in contrast a strategic entry barrier is purposely erected to reduce the possibility of entry two types of innocent barriers may also be distinguished a postentry absolute advantage has the property that if entry did occur the established firm would be at a profit advantage over the entrant examples are superior technology or product design patents and lower input prices a preentry asymmetry advantage arises from the fundamental preentry asymmetry between established firm and potential entrant before the entrant makes his entry decision the established firm has already committed resources this prior existence gives first move advantages the preentry asymmetry is independent of symmetry or asymmetry in the rules the equilibrium concept of the postentry game that might ensue even if the postentry game will be played according to nash cournot or entrant as leader rules the preentry leadership

participation constraints in adverse selection models abstract this paper characterizes the optimal contract offered by an uninformed principal to an informed agent when the latter s reservation utility depends on his type the informational rent is nonmonotonic so that interior types may have a vanishing rent or be excluded from trade the paper identifies conditions for the optimal contract to be separating to be nonstochastic and to induce full participation it also discusses the nature of the solution when bunching occurs the results are applied to nonlinear pricing under price cap regulation and bypass competition and to competition in nonlinear pricing journal of economic literature classification numbers d82 d42 d23 d78 l51 l15

strategic investment and the co existence of labour managed and profit maximising firms the authors examine firm profitability in mixed duopoly equilibrium with one labor managed lm firm and one profit maximizing pm firm and with strategic investment conventional wisdom suggests that firms deviating from profit maximization will suffer forced exit in the long run the authors reverse this conclusion in mixed lm pm duopoly with strategic investment no equilibrium can have both firms making zero profits and pm profitability implies lm profitability but not the converse adverse parameter shifts would cause the pm firm to exit first empirical evidence is consistent with this prediction of robust market survivability of lm firms

contractual distortions in a market with frictions abstract this paper analyses contract design in a decentralized market environment with frictions while principals e g firms have all contractual power their market power is constrained as agents e g workers can choose to wait and search for better offers we find that results depend crucially on how market frictions affect agents utilities with type independent costs of search and waiting equilibrium contracts are always first best if agents are impatient and discount future payoffs however distortions vanish only gradually in the latter case we also characterize equilibrium offers and show that the market exhibits two types of externalities both of which are absent in the case of type independent costs of search

holding excess capacity to deter entry in a labour managed industry this paper considers the dixit model of entry deterrence and adapts it to the case in which firms are maximizing surplus per worker rather than profits the properties of this model are analogous but not identical to those of the dixit model of particular interest is the possibility that the best response functi ons may be positively sloped even though demand satisfies that a firm s marginal revenue is decreasing in rival firms output this possibil ity implies the existence of perfect equilibria in which the incumbent holds excess capacity which is not possible in the dixit model give n the above condition

analysing gasoline demand elasticities a survey this paper is a survey of studies on gasoline demand although there are very many dxerent studies in this eld which sometimes appear to arrive at contradictory results we find that with proper stratification of studies by model and data type much of the contict turns to consensus in this survey we classtfy studies by data type and by ten d erent categories of model and with the exception of estimates on seasonal data which tend to be unstable and of certain inappropriate model formulations we find a fair degree of agreement concerning average short run and even long run income and price elasticities

estimating the demand for gasoline in developing countries senegal abstract this paper estimates the aggregate demand for gasoline in senegal from 1970 to 2008 the long term and short term elasticities of demand with respect to gasoline prices and income are of paramount interest in this study in senegal rising food prices unemployment and shortage of electric supply are always associated with the spiking cost of world oil prices to understand the external shocks of world oil price and demand for gasoline in senegal this study tested a log linear model against the linear model of the demand for oil function with lagged dependent variables as an explanatory variable here the linear specification of the demand for oil is rejected in this study in favor of the log linear the natural log transformation is typical when using high frequency data and significantly reduces skewness and kurtosis generally in this study i found that short run elasticity is smaller than long run elasticity and gasoline demand is inelastic with respect to both price and income for both the short and long runs in senegal this is why researcher like moosa posits that this assertion can be rationalised on the grounds that oil is such an important commodity that does not have close substitutes at least for its uses 1998 p 3

regulation competition and liberalization in many countries throughout the world regulators are struggling to determine whether and how to introduce competition into regulated industries this essay examines the complexities involved in the liberalization process while stressing the importance of case specific analyses this essay distinguishes liberalization policies that generally are procompetitive from corresponding anticompetitive liberalization policies

holding idle capacity to deter entry in this journal dixit i980 carefully analysed the extent to which an established firm facing a prospective entrant might make an investment in capacity beyond that which is optimal for its pre entry output in his model both the established firm and prospective entrants understand that a quantity setting nash equilibrium would be established in any post entry game dixit showed that spence i977 had studied an imperfect equilibrium that is an equilibrium that depended upon a threat that was not credible to obtain his result that firms might hold excess capacity to deter entry in a perfect equilibrium a firm would not wish to install capacity that would be left idle if entry did not occur dixit s conclusion however depends on his assumption that each firm s marginal revenue is always decreasing in the other s output this is quite a restrictive assumption for example it is never satisfied in the relevant range for economists second favourite demand curve constant elasticity demand the basic point is unchanged if the firms anticipate price competition with differentiated products rather thanquantity competition in any post entry game under quite plausible conditions rational firms facing rational potential entrants may install capacity that will certainly be left idle we are thus able to rehabilitate spence s original proposition in a perfect equilibrium setting

capacity output and sequential entry two crucial assumptions frequently made in industrial organization are that an established firm deters entry either by a constant high output the sylos postulate or by high excess capacity the excess capacity hypothesis these assumptions may be an accurate description of the observed conduct of firms in some industries however when the rules of the post entry game are clearly specified the optimal output and investment strategies of an established firm may depart considerably from these behavioral assumptions because of this possible inconsistency with rational behavior any conclusions about the formation of industry based upon either assumption are highly suspect what is more these assumptions avoid the main issue of whether entry deterrence is worthwhile at all this paper presents a dynamic model of entry in which established firms pursue a cournot nash alternatively stackelberg strategy toward a potential entrant the entrant behaves in cournot nash fashion and chooses output on the basis of expected postentry profits at the equilibrium of the post entry game within this framework a constant output entry deterring strategy would involve maintenance of an entry deterring output level before and after entry is threatened an excess capacity entry deterring strategy would involve holding excess capacity at an entry deterring level and increasing output to that level after entry is threatened special conditions are presented under which the sylos postulate or the excess capacity hypothesis will accurately describe optimal entry deterring strategies in addition special conditions are examined under which the established firm maintains a constant output or holds pre entry excess capacity when large scale entry does in fact take place the analysis shows that in general established firm reactions to entry are quite different from these special cases the sylos postulate see joseph bain paolo sylos labini franco modigliani 1958 asserts not only that potential entrants expect established firms to maintain their output constant as entry occurs but that established firms keep output constant at a level that deters entry whether or not it is profitable to do so hailed as a welcome major breakthrough on the oligopoly front modigliani 1958 the sylos postulate underlies many papers in the large theoretical and empirical literature on limit pricing yet the sylos postulate ignores both the strategic interaction between firms and the dynamic aspects of entry 2 unless the established firm s monopoly output exceeds the entrydeterring level the established firm with a general cost function able to choose an entry deterring output level will instead always desire a lower output level before entry for the special case where capacity is an upper bound on output and the established firm is a stackelberg leader in the post entry game