information inequality and mass polarization ideology in advanced democracies growing polarization in the american congress is closely related to rising income inequality yet there has been no corresponding polarization of the u s electorate and across advanced democracies mass polarization is negatively related to income inequality to explain this puzzle we propose a comparative political economy model of mass polarization in which the same institutional factors that generate income inequality also undermine political information we explain why more voters then place themselves in the ideological center hence generating a negative correlation between mass polarization and inequality we confirm these conjectures on individual level data for 20 democracies and we then show that democracies cluster into two types one with high inequality low mass polarization and polarized and right shifted elites e g the united states and the other with low inequality and high mass polarization with left shifted elites e g sweden this division reflects long standing difference

examining the hayek friedman hypothesis on economic and political freedom abstract this paper examines empirically the hypothesis made famous by nobel laureates friedrich a hayek and milton friedman that societies with high levels of political freedom must also have high levels of economic freedom in our judgment the hayek friedman hypothesis holds up fairly well to historical scrutiny using data on economic and political freedom for a sample of up to 123 nations back as far as 1970 we find relatively few instances of societies combining relatively high political freedom without relatively high levels of economic freedom in addition we find that these cases are diminishing over time finally we examine several cases of countries on different economic and political freedom journeys

the eastern enlargement of the european union this paper examines the prospects and problems of eastern enlargement it argues that considerations of stability and long run prosperity are the primary reasons why the eu has promised to enlarge eastward and why the central and eastern european nations wish to join while high politics prompted this promise opposition from eu special interest groups is likely to delay fulfilment of the promise for many years if this is the case europe should create a series of intermediate steps that would permit the reintegration of europe to proceed apace if a quick enlargement does occur eu politics is likely to become much more complicated the ceecs would have many votes in the council of ministers yet they would be very different economically to the average eu incumbent

the political economy of eastern european trade with the european community why so sensitive ec trade with eastern europe jim rollo and alasdair smith despite agreements to open trade with eastern europe the european community has retained a substantial degree of protection against imports of sensitive products notably agricultural products textiles and clothing and steel this article investigates how sensitive these products really are it is true that the targeted products are important to the ec economy particularly in the poorer or declining regions yet trade with eastern europe only amounts to a very small proportion of the size of these sectors when a large increase in imports is simulated the overall effects on the community are not insignificant but are well within the range of the normal experience of economic change even without taking into account the fact that eastern markets for ec goods would also grow trade liberalization is welfare increasing particularly far eastern europe thus contingent protection which may seriously deter investment in eastern europe may simply be protectionism in any sector in which eastern europe is successful

the informal recruitment channel and the quality of job worker matches an analysis on italian survey data this article analyzes the consequences of being recruited through the informal channel in the italian labor market using data collected through a new survey implemented by institute for the development of the vocational training of workers isfol we find that while workers entering the labor market via professional ties enjoy a wage bonus and a reduction in entry times those recruited via family and friends referrals save on entry times but receive on average lower wages moreover the use of the family channel reduces the returns to education and is associated with the phenomenon of over education suggesting the existence of some mismatches between workers and jobs characteristics copyright 2011 the author 2010 published by oxford university press on behalf of associazione icc all rights reserved oxford university press

trade creation and diversion revisited accounting for model uncertainty and natural trading partner effects summary the effect of preferential trade agreements ptas on trade flows is subject to model uncertainty stemming from the diverse and even contradictory effects suggested by the theoretical pta literature the existing empirical literature has produced remarkably disparate results and the wide variety of empirical approaches reflects the uncertainty about the correct set of explanatory variables that ought to be included in the analysis to account for the model uncertainty that surrounds the validity of the competing pta theories we introduce bayesian model averaging bma to the pta literature statistical theory shows that bma successfully incorporates model uncertainty in linear regression analysis by minimizing the mean squared error and by generating predictive distributions with optimal predictive performance once model uncertainty is addressed as part of the empirical strategy we find strong evidence of trade creation trade diversion and open bloc effects our results are robust to a range of alternative empirical specifications proposed by the recent pta literature copyright 2010 john wiley sons ltd

employer search training and vacancy duration we develop a model of optimal employer search strategy when information about match quality is endogenous the model is tested using four data sets two of which have not previously been used as theory predicts we find that when filling positions requiring more training employers search more intensively and extensively employers also search more extensively when hiring workers with more education and with prior experience these findings provide strong evidence of systematic variation in search strategies based on the characteristics of the positions and job applicants factors that influence employer search also affect the duration of a vacancy

the impact of informal networks on quit behavior sector disaggregation the change in the level effect accounts for only 0 35 0 41 percentage point of the 2 24 percentage point deceleration in labor productivity growth between the 1948 65 and 1973 78 periods the aggregate rate and level effects are not very sensitive to the degree of disaggregation 12versus 60 sector although some large level effects are evident within and across major industrial divisions they often cancel out in the aggregate however the level effect from the shift out of farming is quantitatively large and is close to the aggregate level effect using either 12 sector or 60 sector disaggregation although one can approximate the aggregate level effect by looking only at that for agriculture one should note that other fairly large level effects exist both within and across major industrial divisions other than agriculture

job information networks neighborhood effects and inequality this paper explores the theoretical and empirical literature to examine the use by different social groups of informal sources of information provided by friends relatives and acquaintances during job search and its consequences for the job market it also addresses the role of network structure and size the resource endowments of contacts and nature of the links between contacts to explain differences in the effects of job information networks in doing so the paper also turns to the sociology literature on job information networks and provides an economic perspective on such sociological concepts as strong versus weak ties inbreeding distance from structural holes etc the paper distinguishes between models of exogenous job information networks that is where individuals obtain job related information through a given social structure and endogenous job information networks which are social networks that result from individuals uncoordinated actions the paper pays special attention to such issues as physical and social proximity and sharing of information and discusses them in the context of the recent social interactions and neighborhood effects literature finally the paper outlines a model that integrates job information networks where interactions occur in business cycle frequencies with the dynamics of human capital formation which include the joint effects of parental community and neighborhood human capital and are set in life cycle frequencies for the purpose of organizing suggestions for future research and examining earned income inequality

do friends and relatives really help in getting a good job informal contacts are extensively used by both firms and workers to find jobs and fill vacancies the common wisdom in the economic literature is that jobs created through this channel are of better quality and pay higher wages than jobs created through formal methods this paper explores the empirical evidence for european countries using the european community household panel echp and discovers a large cross country as well as cross industry variation in the wage differentials between jobs found through informal and formal methods across countries and industries wage premiums and wage penalties to finding jobs through personal contacts are equally frequent this paper argues that such variation can be explained by looking at firms recruitment strategies in labour markets where employers invest largely in formal recruitment activities matches created through this channel are likely to be of average better quality than those created through informal networks a simple theoretical model is used to show that employers invest more in recruitment for high productivity jobs and for positions that require considerable training the empirical predictions of the theory are successfully tested using industry level data on recruitment costs

fishing in different pools job search strategies and job finding success in canada in the early 1980s this article examines the job search methods of jobless workers and emphasizes sample selectivity in choice of job search strategies especially use of public employment agencies longitudinal data from the labour force survey of canada for 1981 1983 and 1986 indicate that job search methods change with the business cycle and that many people find jobs without any reported search the determinants of job search success also vary substantially over the business cycle implying a substantial social return to public employment agencies at the 1983 trough of the recession but no noticeable benefits when aggregate unemployment is relatively low

specific investments and the eu enlargement abstract this paper analyzes a hold up problem in the eu enlargement process eu specific anticipatory investments of private firms lower the government s outside option the eu takes advantage of the applicants increased dependency and extracts more surplus through entrance conditions that benefit it and impose net costs on applicants if private firms pay less than the full entrance fee in taxes enlargement immiserizes the entrant while in practice an applicant may possess sufficient bargaining power to avoid immiserization the hold up problem reduces its potential gains from joining the eu this result suggests that previous calculations ignoring both the applicants costs of joining the eu and the dynamics of their bargaining position during the negotiations overestimate the welfare effects of membership

hayek and socialism friedrich a hayek was a life long opponent of socialism three of his contributions are surveyed and placed within historical context his debates in the 1930s with the market socialists his political critique of socialism in the road to serfdom and his evolutionary arguments against rationalist constructivists recent discussions that use the economics of information to analyze the prospects for socialism are also reviewed it is argued that theorists working in the economics of information have not recognized just how far hayek s conceptualization of the appropriate theoretical constructs for economics deviates from those of mainstream economists as such they have misunderstood what may constitute an independent set of arguments against socialism

with a little help from my friends quality of social networks job finding and job match quality this paper studies the effect of network quality on job finding and job match quality using longitudinal data and a direct measure of network quality which is based on the employment of friendship ties various identification strategies provide robust evidence that a higher number of employed contacts increases the job finding rate network quality also increases wages for high skilled workers forming networks with non familial contacts instead for low skilled workers more employed familial contacts lead to a negative but not significant effect on wages these findings reconcile previous mixed evidence of network effects on wages indicating heterogeneity by skill level and relationship type

a better job thanks to personal networks an evaluation for migrants who arrived in france before age 18 it is more difficult for migrants than natives to find a job in their host country so many of them have to accept at least temporarily a job that is below their level of qualification this repr

informal job search and black youth unemployment in this paper i analyze how young black and white unemployed jobseekers use various methods of search and the employment outcomes which result from their use the focus is on distinguishing informal search methods i e friends and relatives or direct application without referral from more formal ones in analyzing racial differences the results show that the two informal methods of search account for about 90 of the difference in employment probabilities between white and black youth this also accounts for 57 71 of the difference in unemployment rates between the two furthermore most of these results reflect differences in the ability of these methods to generate job offers as opposed to differences in search effort or job acceptance rates however our ability to explain these differences through personal family and household characteristics was generally quite limited this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

hayek samuelson and the logic of the mixed economy abstract in 1980 friedrich hayek wrote to paul samuelson complaining about the role that economics had played in discrediting the thesis of hayek s the road to serfdom in the 11th edition of economics samuelson had written that each step away from the market system and towards the social reform of the welfare state is inevitably a journey that must end in a totalitarian state given the apparent prevalence of this reading of hayek s thesis we assess the dispute over hayek s inevitability thesis and whether hayek s complaints were justified

social capital and finding a job do contacts matter does social capital affect labor market outcomes the prevalent use of job contacts to find work suggests that who you know is an important means of getting a good job network theories of social capital argue that well connected workers benefit because of the job information and influence they receive through their social ties although a number of studies have found a positive relationship between measures of social capital and wages and or occupational prestige little is known about the causal effect of social networks on labor market outcomes four data sets are used to reassess findings on the role of social capital in the labor market a test of causality is proposed based on the argument that if social capital variables do have a causal effect on job outcomes then workers with high levels of social capital should be more likely to use contacts to find work all else being equal results suggest that much of the effect of social capital in the existing literature reflects the tendency for similar people to become friends rather than a causal effect of friends characteristics on labor market outcomes

managing the evolution of multilateralism author s downs george w rocke david barsoom peter n abstract in the past five years a relatively extensive literature has emerged that explores the demand for multilateral cooperation that is those factors that motivate states to develop or resist developing formal institutions that operate to increase interstate economic military or environmental cooperation 1 these factors include the transaction costs associated with ad hoc and multiple bilateral arrangements increased interstate trade the diffusion of liberal trade theory information about the costs of environmental degradation and trends in elite ideology to date however our understanding of the supply side of multilateralism the standards that are set for admission the order and speed with which candidate states are admitted and the impact of expansion on cooperation and future evolution has been relatively undeveloped 2 partly as a result theorists have had little to say about how multilateral institutions are likely to evolve or what the policy consequences of their expansion will be 3 supply side issues are important because multilateral organizations usually do not spring forth full blown they grow instead of forming an inclusive agreement that is one that covers nearly all of the states that its designers eventually hope to include many multilateral organizations start out with substantially smaller memberships and generally expand over time we argue that among the many possible explanations for the choice of this design strategy there is a rational choice argument

job contact networks abstract many workers hear about or obtain their jobs through friends and relatives the aim of this paper is twofold first we relate both individual and aggregate labor market outcomes to the network structure of personal contacts second we study strategic network formation to this purpose we develop a model specifying at the individual level both the decision to form contacts with other agents and the process by which information about jobs is obtained and transmitted we show that equilibrium networks always exist and that only moderate levels of network asymmetry can be sustained at equilibrium also we establish a general non monotonicity result on information flow and unemployment with respect to network size in symmetric networks

hiring through referrals abstract an equilibrium search model of the labor market is combined with a social network the key features are that the workers network transmits information about jobs and that wages and firm entry are determined endogenously empirically the inter industry variation in aggregate matching efficiency is attributed to variation in referral use the model predicts that the efficiency of the aggregate matching function is pro cyclical which is consistent with empirical evidence

an empirical model of transfers within a federation with an application to the european union abstract we construct a stylized model of transfers within a federation and apply it to the european union our approach differs from that of most of the existing literature in that we fix the preferences for redistribution of resources among a federation s members rather than fix the current budgetary rules or modify them on the basis of assumed scenarios the model is tested successfully by assessing its ability to predict the effects of the last 1995 enlargement on the european budget we then use the estimated model to predict the reallocation of the union s net transfers after the upcoming eastern enlargement our estimates of transfers to the incoming member states exceed those of the rest of the literature our results can be interpreted in one of two ways first either the european union in its collective decision making process that in the future will include the five incoming countries as voting members will institute new rules and programs to further reduce the regional disparities in income or second if the current rules and programs are maintained then the eastern enlargement would result in a reduction in the depth of the union the approach we introduce can be more generally applied to the analysis of other intergovernmental or international organizations

the effects of social networks on employment and inequality we develop a model where agents obtain information about job opportunities through an explicitly modeled network of social contacts we show that employment is positively correlated across time and agents moreover unemployment exhibits duration dependence the probability of obtaining a job decreases in the length of time that an agent has been unemployed finally we examine inequality between two groups if staying in the labor market is costly and one group starts with a worse employment status then that group s drop out rate will be higher and their employment prospects will be persistently below that of the other group

old boy networks as screening mechanisms this paper studies a fulfilled expectations equilibrium in situations in which intermediaries provide personal opinions on the likelihood of success of personnel projects or investments each referee must recommend some candidates from a group of people about whom he has private information the employer uses the recommendations to choose the workers using his expectations about the quality of the recommended and the nonrecommended applicants although the referees use their information strategically the competition among them produces optimal use of the information in the sense that employers make the same choices in equilibrium as they would if they had the same information as the referees

search hiring strategies and labor market intermediaries labor market intermediaries play an important role in turnover in many labor markets this paper analyzes one class of such intermediaries namely search firms we first model the hiring decision of the firm in both succession and replacement planning we show that employers will in equilibrium use search firms to find new hires even where the search firms have no technological advantage in search this can be interpreted as being due to the search firms ability to diversify away sampling risk

eu enlargement and the world trade system abstract the paper considers the possible enlargement of the eu towards the cee and the mediterranean and the implications for the rest of the world it suggests that with some variable geometry the eu could expand to more than 20 by the end of the century and to beyond 25 by 2010 it concludes that while trade diversion costs are likely to be low the main costs to the rest of the world will be associated with a more inward looking eu and the difficulties of decision making in particular

some contacts are more equal than others informal networks job tenure and wages the explanation typically given for longer tenure among workers who use informal contacts to find jobs is that relatives and friends reduce uncertainty about the quality of the match between worker and employer an alternative explanation is that workers rely on informal information sources as a last resort such workers remain at their current jobs mainly because they have few alternative choices rather than because of better match quality this article shows that the two different explanations are simultaneously valid for different types of contacts and can account for differences in the wage effects of job contacts

matchmaker matchmaker the effect of old boy networks on job match quality earnings and tenure firms often view job applicant referrals from current employees as more informative than direct applications or referrals through formal labor market intermediaries such as placement firms we argue that old boy networks reduce employers uncertainty about worker productivity using jovanovic s job matching model we show that workers hired through the old boy network should 1 earn higher initial salaries 2 experience lower subsequent wage growth on the job and 3 stay on the job longer than otherwise comparable workers hired from outside the network we find considerable support for this theory using data from the 1972 survey of natural and social scientists and engineers