relaxing intertemporal separability a rational habits model of labor supply estimated from panel data this article relaxes the assumption of separability of preferences over time that although implausible is usually maintained in life cycle labor supply models an empirically tractable rational habits model is specified and estimated on the basis of a 10 year sample of men from the michigan panel of income dynamics the effect of past hours of work in determining current hours decisions is found to be very important and well determined having allowed for permanent individual differences and for time effects

output dynamics in real business cycles models the time series literature reports two stylized facts about output dynamics in the united states gnp growth is positively autocorrelated and gnp appears to have an important trend reverting component this paper investigates whether current real business cycle rbc models are consistent with these stylized facts many rbc models have weak internal propagation mechanisms and must rely on external sources of dynamics to replicate both facts models that incorporate labor adjustment costs are partially successful they endogenously generate positive autocorrelation in output growth but they need implausibly large transitory shocks to match the trend reverting component in output

asymmetric shocks and monetary policy in a currency union we analyze the conduct of monetary policy in a currency union in the face of asymmetric shocks in particular we compare the stabilization properties of a currency union versus alternative exchange rate arrangements the relative performance of a currency union is shown to depend on the extent of economic integration in patterns of consumption and production and on the relative weights placed on price stability versus employment stability in the monetary authority s objective function jel classification f33 f40

stabilization policy in a currency union abstract we show that the monetary authority of a currency union chooses to do nothing in the face of an asymmetric shock generating inefficiently high inflation and employment fluctuations in the member countries moreover adjustment is equivalent to that under a mckinnon rule

is the european community an optimal currency area optimal taxation versus the cost of multiple currencies the authors propose a view of optimal currency areas that is based on the principles of public finance inflation taxes are distortionary and an optimal spreading of tax distortions may require high inflation in one region and low inflation in another each region would need its own currency to do this on the other hand multiple currencies imply valuation and currency conversion costs which impede trade between regions this tradeoff is explored in the context of the european community s debate over a common currency using a two country variant of robert lucas and nancy stokey s cash in advance model copyright 1990 by american economic association

banking efficiency and competition in low income countries the case of uganda there is a concern that the state dominated inefficient and fragile banking systems in many low income countries especially sub saharan africa are a major hindrance to economic growth in this context this article systematically analyses the impact of the far reaching banking sector reforms undertaken in uganda on banking sector competition and efficiency using models of banking competition and efficiency that have been predominantly estimated in industrial countries we find that the level of competition has significantly increased and has been associated with a rise in efficiency of the sector moreover on average larger banks and foreign owned banks are more efficient than others while smaller banks have fallen back in efficiency with the increase in competitive pressures

time to build and aggregate fluctuations some new evidence this paper presents maximum likelihood estimates and tests of a model similar to one kydland and prescott 1982 suggested for this purpose it derives equilibrium laws of motion for a set of aggregate variables as functions of the model s parameters and the innovation to the technology shock the paper shows that a single unobservable index can explain the variability in the observed series but identifying the single index with the innovation to the technology shock implies that per capita hours is not well explained it also shows that time separable preferences with respect to leisure are consistent with the data copyright 1989 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

a time series analysis of representative agent models of consumption andleisure choice under uncertainty this paper investigates empirically a model of aggregate consumption and leisure decisions in which utility from goods and leisure is nontime separable the nonseparability of preferences accommodates intertemporal substitution or complementarity of leisure and thereby affects the comovements in aggregate compensation and hours worked these cross relations are examined empirically using postwar monthly u s data on quantities real wages and the real return on the one month treasury bill the estimated values of the parameters governing preferences differ significantly from the values assumed in several studies of real business models several possible explanations of these discrepancies are discussed

on intertemporal substitution and aggregate labor supply in this paper the author presents an econometric investigation of t he implications of the intertemporal substitution hypothesis for aggregate employment in the united states the tests are based on a version of the hypothesis with time separable preferences on the basis of the evidence produced the hypothesis is quite successful in explaining fluctuations in aggregate employment although almost totally unsuccessful in accounting for fluctuations in employee hours these findings suggest that the hypothesis might have an important role to play in macroeconomic modeling although they contradict attempts to account for aggregate fluctuations solely in terms of continuous competitive equilibrium in labor markets copyright 1987 by university of chicago press

a fundamental asymmetry of asymmetric shocks a simple n country specific factor type model with imperfectly mobile labour is developed it is shown that the effects of country specific productivity shocks hitting a small country have fundamentally asymmetric effects a positive shock will be accommodated by a moderate wage increase and sizeable in migration whereas a negative shock will be accommodated by a significant decrease in wages and moderate out migration it is argued that the results of the model are consistent with the recent irish experience the welfare effects of small economic fluctuations are also discussed c 2002 elsevier b v all rights reserved

detrending and business cycle facts a user s guide this note argues that it is hardly the case that the profession is fully aware that the application of di erent filters to the data leads to di erent outcomes and that we have enough evidence to claim that these di erences are unimportant to evaluate the fit models to the data 1998 elsevier science b v all rights reserved jel classification b41 e32

the competitive conditions in the oecd manufacturing industry the goal of this study was to assess the intensity of competition in the oecd manufacturing industry by using the panzar and rosse index over the period 1970 2011 for this purpose we use the fully modified ols method and second generation unit root analysis to investigate the level of competition across two digit manufacturing sectors the results are robust and consistent with similar studies leading to the rejection of perfect collusion and perfect competition while providing evidence in favour of monopolistic competition similarly to other empirical studies h statistics are shown to be heterogeneous across manufacturing sectors we argue that more concentrated sectors such as food and beverages motor vehicles and furniture have low levels of h statistic being thus less competitive than other industries i e computers transportation equipment printing and chemicals where the h statistic is closer to unity lastly our analysis will be a useful policy tool to achieve structural micro economic

time to build and aggregate fluctuations abstract this paper studies the contribution of time to build to the explanation of business cycle phenomena using a simple version of the neoclassical model the analysis shows that it is not evident that multiperiod construction is crucial to the theory of fluctuations

indivisible labor and the business cycle abstract a growth model with shocks to technology is studied labor is indivisible so all variability in hours worked is due to fluctuations in the number employed we find that unlike previous equilibrium models of the business cycle this economy displays large fluctuations in hours worked and relatively small fluctuations in productivity this finding is independent of individuals willingness to substitute leisure across time this and other findings are the result of studying and comparing summary statistics describing this economy an economy with divisible labor and post war u s time series

indeterminacy and increasing returns abstract we investigate properties of the one sector growth model with increasing returns under two organizational structures capable of reconciling the existence of aggregate increasing returns with competitive behavior by firms the first involves input externalities the second involves monopolistic competition we show for parameters in close accord with recent literature on real business cycles that the model displays an indeterminate steady state that can be exploited to generate a model of business fluctuations driven by self fulfilling beliefs in our first class of models growth is generated by exogenous increases in factor productivity in the second class the marginal product of capital is large enough for endogenous growth journal of economic literature classification numbers e00 e3 o40

bargaining a monetary union abstract two governments bargain over the benefits of a monetary union in a cash in advance world a novel feature of the model is that because households trade every period market behavior affects and is affected by the government negotiations as a result in addition to objective costs of delay market expectations about the bargaining outcome emerge as crucial determinants of a monetary union there is a continuum of bargaining outcomes indexed by market expectations some outcomes imply that the monetary union is delayed for an arbitrary number of periods journal of economic literature classification numbers f4 c7

competition and efficiency in the dutch life insurance industry the lack of available prices in the dutch life insurance industry makes competition an elusive concept that defies direct observation therefore this article investigates competition by analysing several factors which may affect the competitive nature of a market and various indirect measurement approaches after discussing various supply and demand factors which may constitute a so called tight oligopoly we establish the existence of scale economies and the importance of cost x inefficiency since severe competition would force firms to exploit available scale economies and to reduce x inefficiencies both scale economies and x inefficiencies turn out to be substantial although more or less comparable to those found for insurers in other countries and to other financial institutions further we apply the boone indicator a novel approach to measuring the effects of competition this indicator points to limited competition in comparison to other sectors in the netherlands further investigations of submarkets should reveal where policy measures in order to promote competition might be appropriate

can a real business cycle model pass the watson test abstract watson 1993 measures of fit for calibrated models journal of political economy 101 6 1011 1041 proposes a procedure for evaluating the fit of a dynamic equilibrium business cycle model under watson s criterion the standard real business cycle rbc model fails dramatically in reconciling the dynamics of the model with the data this inability to account for the dynamics of us aggregate data remains a major challenge to rbc theory this paper demonstrates that reasonable modifications can bring rbc theory into closer conformity with the data the empirical results indicate that when habit formation on leisure choice and employment externality are incorporated into the analysis the striking spectral density differentials documented by watson virtually vanish at business cycle frequencies

competition in the turkish banking industry this study employs the panzar rosse h statistic to assess the competitive environment of the turkish banking industry over the period 1990 to 2000 the results indicate that for the period under consideration bank revenues behaved as if they were earned under conditions of monopolistic competition therefore the observed high profitability of the turkish banking sector does not seem to be an indication of an increase in monopoly power the liberalization process and deregulation measures appear to have beneficial effects on competition

information sharing market competition and antitrust intervention a lesson from the italian insurance sector by means of an application of the rosse panzar methodology we assess the degree of competition in the italian car insurance market in order to evaluate the considerable fine that is imposed on 39 companies by the italian antitrust authority iaa in 2000 for their supposed anticompetitive behaviour due to a longstanding information exchange through a third independent company our results show that this group of firms has earned revenues as if under monopoly or collusive oligopoly conditions therefore endorsing the decision of iaa

swedish business cycles 1861 1988 abstract we examine swedish business cycle data for 1861 1988 in the time domain as well as in the frequency domain there is evidence of a business cycle in the form of considerable spectral mass for cycles between three and eight years the variability of the series varies considerably over time for most series it is highest in the inter war period relative variability is fairly stable over time cross section ratios between moving standard deviations for the series do not change much comovements are also stable over time correlation coefficients do not change much either

information sharing in credit markets we present a model with adverse selection where information sharing between lenders arises endogenously lenders incentives to share information about borrowers are positively related to the mobility and heterogeneity of borrowers to the size of the credit market and to advances in information technology such incentives are instead reduced by the fear of competition from potential entrants in addition information sharing increases the volume of lending when adverse selection is so severe that safe borrowers drop out of the market these predictions are supported by international and historical evidence in the context of the consumer credit market a large body of literature on credit markets has shown that asymmetric information may prevent the efficient allocation of lending leading to credit rationing e g jaffee and russell 1976 stiglitz and weiss 1981 or to a wedge between lending and borrowing rates e g king 1986 in this literature informational asymmetries are taken to be exogenous lenders fail to observe some relevant characteristic or action of potential borrowers and have no way of learning about it in some countries however lenders can improve their knowledge about new customers by exchanging information with other lenders through information brokers generally known as credit bureaus the latter collect file and distribute the information voluntarily supplied by their members and operate on the principle of reciprocity lenders who do not provide data are denied access to the bureau s files in other countries instead these institutions do not exist the literature offers no guide to identify the factors that lead to endogenous communication between lenders this paper is an attempt to fill the gap information sharing is important for a number of reasons it may increase the degree of competitiveness within credit markets vives 1990 improve

participation in a currency union in any voluntary cooperative agreement the potential gain from deviation should determine the minimum influence required over common decision making this paper begins by observing that a highly asymmetric distribution of power between two partners is not sustainable if the choice variables are strategic substitutes it then studies a simple general equilibrium model of a monetary union and shows that a small economy will not take part in the agreement unless it can secure influence that is more than proportional to its size and a transfer of seigniorage revenues in its favor copyright 1992 by american economic association

cyclical patterns in aggregate economic activity of slovene economy this paper studies cyclic patterns in the slovene economy with spectral analysis it examines if the transition in slovenia was marked by a statistically significant movement of aggregate economic activity which corresponds to the definition of business cycle proposed by mitchell and burns 1946 it finds that in the period 1992 2000 a statistically significant cyclic component is present the cyclic component oscillates with the frequency of 33 3 months the results obtained in this paper suggest that in the observed period two full length cycles can be identified

monetary and fiscal policies interaction in monetary unions in this paper the literature on the interaction between monetary and fiscal policies in a monetary union is surveyed by adopting the concept of symbiosis as a starting point the paper highlights the importance of uncertainty policy makers preferences and targets then the role of commitment to policy rules and coordination is addressed the analysis also focuses on the importance of the data considered for the generation of the policy mix as a final step the paper discusses the main results in the literature on public debt management in a monetary union all the reported theoretical results are then adopted to retrieve policy and institutional implications for the european monetary union

free riding convergence and two speed monetary unification in europe this paper shows that two speed monetary unification carries a danger low inflation countries in europe have an interest in delaying entry of the high inflation country because it would raise the average inflation rate however this country might refuse to join when the first group find it qualified to that is when convergence has taken place this is because the high inflation country can employ its monetary policy to stabilize against shocks given that the currency union members have optimally chosen a lower inflation rate hence a tradeoff exists between the necessity for convergence and the free rider problem

establishing a central bank issues in europe and lessons from the us list of figures list of tables preface list of conference participants 1 introduction part i the design of a central bank 2 designing a central bank for europe a cautionary tale from the early years of the federal reserve system 3 the european central bank reshaping monetary politics in europe 4 the ecb a bank or a monetary policy rule part ii transition from national central banks to a european central bank 5 hard erm hard ecu and european monetary union 6 voting