is the energy led growth hypothesis valid new evidence from a sample of 85 countries abstract the energy growth literature contains a large number of discussions on the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth the central debate focuses on whether energy consumption contributes or not to economic growth since it has direct implications for the formulation of strategic policies nevertheless current studies cannot provide a conclusive suggestion due to mixed causality results this inconclusive evidence is potentially attributed to model specifications and the stage of economic development of the countries under investigation hence this study attempts to empirically re investigate the validity of the energy led growth hypothesis using a different model specification and different stages of economic development for 85 selected countries around the globe overall although the causality results are mixed among countries we do find a systematic pattern in particular granger causality models with three and four variables are more likely to support the hypothesis compared to their counterparts that contain only two variables in addition both developed and developing countries are more likely to support the energy led growth hypothesis compared to the less developed or low income countries therefore causality results are very sensitive to the choice of the model specification along with the stages of economic development finally energy conservation policies should only focus on low income countries as these policies may not retard the process of economic growth

disaggregate energy consumption employment and income in turkey the purpose of this paper is to contribute to literature on energy consumption and economic growth relationship by examining how much of the variance in national income growth can be explained by the growth of different sources of energy consumption and employment in turkey we use the recently developed generalized forecast error variance decomposition technique of koop et al j econom 74 1996 119 and pesaran and shin econ lett 58 1998 17 to determine the information content of the growth rate of energy consumption waste seems to have the largest initial impact followed by oil however over a 3 year horizon lignite appears to explain the largest forecast error variance of gdp the total energy consumption explains 21 of forecast error variance of gdp energy consumption appears to be almost as important as employment in turkey therefore policy makers may be interested in identifying the energy dependencies of economic growth in allocating the energy investment budget

does money matter in canada evidence from a vector error correction model this paper investigates the statistical properties of a set of canadian and u s economic time series and uses the data to address the question of the importance of monetary variables in canadian business cycle fluctuations the individual time series are found to contain unit roots but the data reveal the existence of several economically meaningful cointegrating vectors a multivariate vector error correction model is estimated and canadian velocity which appears as an error correction term is significant in the canadian output equation this supports the contention that monetary variables have predictive content for real output copyright 1989 by mit press

energy and economic growth in the usa a multivariate approach abstract this paper examines the causal relationship between gdp and energy use for the period 1947 90 in the usa the relationship between energy use and economic growth has been examined by both biophysical and neoclassical economists in particular several studies have tested for the presence of a causal relationship in the granger sense between energy use and economic growth however these tests do not allow a direct test of the relative explanatory powers of the neoclassical and biophysical models a multivariate adaptation of the test vector autoregression var does allow such a test a var of gdp energy use capital stock and employment is estimated and granger tests for causal relationships between the variables are carried out although there is no evidence that gross energy use granger causes gdp a measure of final energy use adjusted for changing fuel composition does granger cause gdp

energy consumption and economic growth evidence from the commonwealth of independent states abstract this study examines the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for eleven countries of the commonwealth of independent states over the period 1991 2005 within a multivariate panel data framework based on pedroni 1999 pedroni 2004 heterogeneous panel cointegration test and corresponding error correction model cointegration is present between real gdp energy consumption real gross fixed capital formation and labor force with the respective coefficients positive and statistically significant the results of the error correction model reveal the presence of unidirectional causality from energy consumption to economic growth in the short run while bidirectional causality between energy consumption and economic growth in the long run thus the results lend support for the feedback hypothesis associated with the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth

the long term relationships among china s energy consumption sources and adjustments to its renewable energy policy abstract to reduce its consumption of coal and oil in its primary energy consumption china promotes the development of renewable energy resources i have analysed the long term relationship among china s primary energy consumption sources changes in coal consumption lead those in the consumption of other energy sources in the long term coal and oil fuels substitute for each other equally the long term elasticities of china s coal consumption relative to its hydroelectricity consumption were greater than one and nearly equal during the two sample periods therefore increased hydroelectricity consumption did not imply a reduction in coal consumption china holds abundant hydroelectricity wind and solar energy potential china must prevent an excessive escalation of its economy and resultant energy demand to realise a meaningful substitution of coal with hydroelectricity moreover china must develop and use wind and solar energy sources natural gas can be a good substitute for coal given its moderate price growth and affordable price levels

considering the effect of biomass energy consumption on economic growth fresh evidence from brics region abstract this paper investigates the relationship between biomass energy consumption and economic growth by incorporating capital and trade openness in production function for the case of brics countries in doing so unit root and cointegration tests have been used in order to examine unit root properties and long run relationship between the series for the period of 1991q1 2015q4 the results confirm the presence of long run equilibrium relationship between the variables moreover biomass energy consumption stimulates economic growth capital increments economic growth and trade openness spurs economic growth the feedback effect exists between biomass energy consumption and economic growth trade openness granger causes economic growth capital and biomass energy consumption the policy to adopt biomass as the primary source of renewable energy helps brics countries to achieve sustainable development goal in both short run and long run however the key innovative point of this study is to establish the sign for granger causality test

causal relationship between energy consumption and gdp growth revisited a dynamic panel data approach abstract this paper uses the panel data of energy consumption and gdp for 82 countries from 1972 to 2002 based on the income levels defined by the world bank the data are divided into four categories low income group lower middle income group upper middle income group and high income group we employ the gmm sys approach for the estimation of the panel var model in each of the four groups afterwards the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is tested and ascertained we discover a in the low income group there exists no causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth b in the middle income groups lower and upper middle income groups economic growth leads energy consumption positively c in the high income group countries economic growth leads energy consumption negatively after further in depth analysis of energy related data the results indicate that in the high income group there is a great environmental improvement as a result of more efficient energy use and reduction in the release of co2 however in the upper middle income group countries after the energy crisis the energy efficiency declines and the release of co2 rises since there is no evidence indicating that energy consumption leads economic growth in any of the four income groups a stronger energy conservation policy should be pursued in all countries

cointegration and causality between electricity consumption and gdp empirical evidence from malawi abstract the granger causality gc and error correction ecm techniques were applied on 1970 1999 data for malawi to examine cointegration and causality between electricity consumption kwh and respectively overall gdp agricultural gdp agdp and non agricultural gdp ngdp cointegration was established between kwh and respectively gdp and ngdp but not with agdp the gc results detect bi directional causality between kwh and gdp suggesting that kwh and gdp are jointly determined but one way causality running from ngdp to kwh the ecm results detect causality running one way from gdp also from ngdp to kwh suggesting that a permanent rise in gdp may cause a permanent growth in electricity consumption

currency substitution and instability in the world dollar standard comment myron ross correctly points out in his comment that u s price inflation is better predicted by the american money supply mlus than by the broader ten country world money supply mlw over the whole statistical time series from 1960 to 1980 provided in mckinnon s 1982 article specifically he showed that american price inflation is more highly correlated with mlus lagged one or two years than with mlw similarly lagged however mckinnon s present tense assertion that in general growth in the world money supply is a better predictor of american price inflation than is american money growth applies only to the weak dollar standard of the 1970 s and early 1980 s as his preceding discussion intended but failed to indicate clearly only in this later period of volatile exchange rates and price level instability in the united states do alternative hard currencies such as the yen and deutsche mark become competitive as international stores of value and units of account hence international currency substitution associated with the ebb and flow of speculation against or for the dollar significantly destabilized the demand for mlus in the 1970 s and 1980 s and only in this later period might one expect the sum of these internationally substitutable monies ml to predict world and perhaps even american price inflation better than does mlus in contrast during the strong dollar standard of the 1950 s and 1960 s the dollar was unchallenged as international money exchange rates were by and large convincingly fixed speculation for or against the dollar was incapable of substantially altering u s interest rates or of directly affecting the demand for mlus because cyclical international influences did not then destabilize the demand for dollars mlus was by itself a fairly efficient predictor of american prices thus ross s statistical results for the period 1960 to 1980 show somewhat greater predictive strength in mlus compared to ml because the 1960 s data outweigh the dissimilar data of the 1970 s let us instead partition the sample of imf data around the year 1970 whence began the transition from fixed to fluctuating exchange rates and the maturation of alternative monetary systems in europe and japan after applying similar statistical correlation procedures to those used by ross we show a striking structural shift in the world s monetary system the explanatory power of mlw increases sharply as that of mlus declines moderately tan 1982 for the early period of 1960 to 1970 table 1 shows simple correlation coefficients between annual percentage changes in money supplies and changes in american and world wholesale price indices the mlus provides a good explanation of u s prices and of world prices one to two years hence whereas the broader definition of mlw in which mlus enters with a 50 percent weight does surprisingly poorly being insignificantly correlated with american or world prices apparently money growth in industrial countries other than the united states was not then an independent source of worldwide inflationary pressure during the strong dollar standard table 2 shows the same simple correlations between percentage changes in prices and money for the weak dollar standard of stanford university please note that a typographical error giving the last word in the original title as market appeared on the cover of the june 1982 issue of this review the title was correct in the table of contents and on the article

factor demand under conditions of product demand and supply uncertainty the paper develops a theory of factor demand under uncertainty that encompasses neo classical factor demand and keynesian effective factor demand as special cases the model allows factor demand and output to move positively with product demand even with a constant product price this in turn permits real wages to move pro cyclically in response to product demand shocks in addition the model provides a new perspective on the adding up problem which posits that total factor payments exceed output if increasing returns to scale exist and generates positive uncertainty profits that are similar in spirit to those of frank knight

the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in the asean countries abstract this paper investigates the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth among the association of south east asian nations asean 4 members namely indonesia malaysia singapore and thailand using modern time series techniques for the period 1971 2002 the results indicate that there is a bi directional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth in malaysia and singapore this means that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further electricity consumption in the two countries however uni directional causality runs from economic growth to electricity consumption in indonesia and thailand without any feedback effect thus electricity conservation policies can be initiated without deteriorating economic side effects in the two countries

the competitive firm with uncertainty in the rate of labor turnover the adoption of more sophisticated production techniques usually requires firms to increase their expenditures on worker training and to pay greater attention to the costs of labor turnover economists are beginning to explicitly incorporate both training expenditures and the rate of labor turnover into the theory of the firm at the same time they are extending the theory of the firm to cases in which the firm faces uncertainty in its environment for example uncertainty in the price of output the prices of inputs or the quantity of output that a given input mix will yield this paper seeks to extend both of these areas of research by first introducing uncertainty in the rate of labor turnover and then examining the consequences of this new form of uncertainty for optimal training expenditures the optimal wage and the optimal level of output at the firm the paper assumes that the firm can increase output by providing workers with more training and can discourage turnover by paying workers a higher wage the quantities of labor and capital that the firm employs are held constant throughout the analysis it is found that the introduction of uncertainty in the rate of labor turnover results in lower optimal expenditures for both training and wages the reduction in training also reduces the level of output per worker at the firm comparative static analysis of ceteris paribus changes in the mean and variance of the labor turnover rate are also performed an increase in the mean of the turnover rate with the variance held constant reduces the wage and the amount of training provided also an increase in the variance of the turnover rate with the mean held constant reduces the wage and the amount of training provided a number of authors have considered models of the competitive firm in which the firm must determine its output level in the presence of uncertainty sandmo 13 batra and ullah 2 hartman 7 ishii 9 ingene and yu 8 flacco 5 and many others consider the behavior of the competitive firm facing uncertainty in its output price blair 3 ratti and ullah 12 stewart 15 perrakis 11 macminn and holtman 10 and many others consider cases in which the firm faces uncertainty in its technology or factor prices in all of these models it is assumed that the firm must make its input and output decisions before the uncertainty is resolved without ex

the long run and causal analysis of energy growth openness and financial development on carbon emissions in turkey abstract the aim of this paper is to examine the causal relationship between financial development trade economic growth energy consumption and carbon emissions in turkey for the 1960 2007 period the bounds f test for cointegration test yields evidence of a long run relationship between per capita carbon emissions per capita energy consumption per capita real income the square of per capita real income openness and financial development the results show that an increase in foreign trade to gdp ratio results an increase in per capita carbon emissions and financial development variable has no significant effect on per capita carbon emissions in the long run these results also support the validity of ekc hypothesis in the turkish economy it means that the level of co 2 emissions initially increases with income until it reaches its stabilization point then it declines in turkey in addition the paper explores causal relationship between the variables by using error correction based granger causality models

nonparametric tests of utility maximization and weak separability for consumption leisure and money some of the most fundamental assumptions of economics are utility maximization and weak separability of the arguments in the represen tative consumer s utility function this paper contains results from nonparametric tests of these assumptions about consumer behavior the authors find that quarterly per capita data on consumption goods le isure and monetary assets are consistent with utility maximization further consumption goods and leisure meet necessary and sufficient conditions for weak separability additionally one grouping of relat ively liquid monetary assets meets the necessary conditions for weak separability they also test and find no evidence of homothetic prefe rences copyright 1987 by mit press

the application of neural networks to the divisia index debate evidence from three countries if monetary policy is to be effective in controlling the macroeconomy accurate measurement of the money supply is essential the conventional way of measuring the level of the money supply is to simply sum the constituent liquid liabilities of banks however a more sophisticated weighted monetary index has been proposed to take account of the varying degrees of liquidity of the short term instruments included in money inferences about the effects of money on economic activity may depend importantly on the choice of monetary index because simple sum aggregates cannot internalize pure substitution effects this hypothesis is investigated in the current paper a divisia index measure of money is constructed for the usa uk and italian economies and its inflation forecasting potential is compared with that of its simple sum counterpart in each of the three countries the powerful artificial intelligence technique of neural networks is used to allow a completely flexible mapping of the variables and a grea

one divisia money for europe in 1992 the eu monetary authorities adopted a harmonized broad money aggregate the emi was subsequently established to promote monetary policy coordination this paper considers how broad money aggregates might be used to guide eu monetary policy and whether a euro divisia monetary index might provide a better guide than a euro simple sum aggregate our findings are based on data from the uk france and germany they indicate that euromoney granger causes europrices and that the eurodivisia monetary index is a better leading indicator of euroinflation than the euro simple sum monetary aggregate

a literature survey on energy growth nexus abstract this paper provides a survey of the recent progress in the literature of energy consumption economic growth and electricity consumption economic growth causality nexus the survey highlights that most empirical studies focus on either testing the role of energy electricity in stimulating economic growth or examining the direction of causality between these two variables although the positive role of energy on growth has become a stylized fact there are some methodological reservations about the results from these empirical studies a general observation from these studies is that the literature produced conflicting results and there is no consensus neither on the existence nor on the direction of causality between energy consumption electricity consumption and economic growth as a policy implication to avoid from conflicting and unreliable results the authors may use the autoregressive distributed lags bounds test two regime threshold co integration models panel data approach and multivariate models including new variables such as real gross fixed capital formation labor force carbon dioxide emissions population exchange rates interest rates etc thus the authors should focus more on the new approaches and perspectives rather than by employing usual methods based on a set of common variables for different countries and different intervals of time

the dynamic links between energy consumption economic growth financial development and trade in china fresh evidence from multivariate framework analysis abstract this study investigates the relationship between energy use and economic growth by incorporating financial development international trade and capital as important factors of production function in case of china over the period of 1971 2011 the ardl bounds testing approach to cointegration was applied to examine long run relationship among the series while stationarity properties of the variables was tested by applying structural break test our empirical evidence confirmed long run relationship among the variables the results showed that energy use financial development capital exports imports and international trade have positive impact on economic growth the granger causality analysis revealed that unidirectional causal relationship running from energy use to economic growth financial development and energy use granger cause each other there is bidirectional causality between international trade and energy use the feedback relation exists between financial development and international trade there is also bidirectional causality exists between capital and energy demand financial development and economic growth and international trade and economic growth this paper makes significant contribution in energy economics and opens up new direction for policy makers to explore new and alternative sources of energy which would be helpful in meeting the rising demand of energy due to sustained rate of economic growth

the changing empirical definition of money some estimates from a model of the demand for money substitutes interest bearing checkable deposits are examined to test whether they should be included in measures of the u s money stock both divisia and traditional simple sum aggregates are constructed on the basis of tests for weak separability in a model of the demand for financial assets using nonparametric demand analysis we find that several groups of assets are compatible with aggregation theory we find empirical support for a narrow measure consisting of the components of current mia in tests based on a st louis equation and in terms of controllability a divisia aggregate performs better than the simple sum mia measure

co2 emissions energy consumption and economic growth in bric countries abstract this paper examines dynamic causal relationships between pollutant emissions energy consumption and output for a panel of bric countries over the period 1971 2005 except for russia 1990 2005 in long run equilibrium energy consumption has a positive and statistically significant impact on emissions while real output exhibits the inverted u shape pattern associated with the environmental kuznets curve ekc hypothesis with the threshold income of 5 393 in logarithms in the short term changes in emissions are driven mostly by the error correction term and short term energy consumption shocks as opposed to short term output shocks for each country short term deviations from the long term equilibrium take from 0 770 years russia to 5 848 years brazil to correct the panel causality results indicate there are energy consumption emissions bidirectional strong causality and energy consumption output bidirectional long run causality along with unidirectional both strong and short run causalities from emissions and energy consumption respectively to output overall in order to reduce emissions and not to adversely affect economic growth increasing both energy supply investment and energy efficiency and stepping up energy conservation policies to reduce unnecessary wastage of energy can be initiated for energy dependent bric countries

energy consumption and gdp causality relationship in g 7 countries and emerging markets abstract the causality relationship between energy consumption and income is a well studied topic in energy economics this paper studies the time series properties of energy consumption and gdp and reexamines the causality relationship between the two series in the top 10 emerging markets excluding china due to lack of data and g 7 countries we discover bi directional causality in argentina causality running from gdp to energy consumption in italy and korea and from energy consumption to gdp in turkey france germany and japan hence energy conservation may harm economic growth in the last four countries

energy consumption prices and economic growth in three ssa countries a comparative study in this paper we examine the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in three sub saharan african countries namely south africa kenya and congo drc we incorporate prices as an intermittent variable in a bivariate setting between energy consumption and economic growth thereby creating a simple trivariate framework using the ardl bounds testing procedure we find that the causality between energy consumption and economic growth varies significantly across the countries under study the results show that for south africa and kenya there is a unidirectional causal flow from energy consumption to economic growth however for congo drc it is economic growth that drives energy consumption these findings have important policy implications insofar as energy conservation policies are concerned in the case of congo drc for example the implementation of energy conservation policies may not significantly affect economic growth because the country s economy is not entirely energy dependent however for south africa and kenya there is a need for more energy supply augmentations in order to cope with the long run energy demand in the short run however the two countries should explore more efficient and cost effective sources of energy in order to address the energy dependency problem

stock watson dynamic ols dols and error correction modelling approaches to estimating long and short run elasticities in a demand function new evidence and methodological implications from an application to the demand for coal in mainland china in this paper robust elasticity estimates of coal demand for china are derived using annual data 1953 92 in so doing we illustrate the use of a powerful yet practically convenient and recently developed modelling procedure devised by stock and watson known as dynamic ols dols who provide evidence based on monte carlo simulations of this estimator being superior in small samples compared to a number of alternative estimators as well as being able not only to accommodate higher orders of integration but also to account for possible simultaneity within regressors of a potential demand system furthermore cointegration and error correction methods are employed to derive short run price and income elasticities estimated results are quite robust not only in terms of statistical prowess but also in terms of economic intuition and indicate that over the long run both price and income elasticities are close to unity while short run price and income elasticities are less in absolute value than their long run counterparts there seems to be some divergence in short run parameters from a subsample analysis overall results seem to imply that for china coal consumption should remain relatively constant as future modernization strategies for economic development are pursued in addition the study has clear methodological implications for estimating the long and short run elasticities in a demand function in general and in a wide variety of fields in future applied research

electricity consumption employment and real income in australia evidence from multivariate granger causality tests this paper examines the relationship between electricity consumption employment and real income in australia within a cointegration and causality framework we find that electricity consumption employment and real income are cointegrated and that in the long run employment and real income granger cause electricity consumption while in the short run there is weak unidirectional granger causality running from income to electricity consumption and from income to employment

energy consumption and economic growth in the next 11 countries the bootstrapped autoregressive metric causality approach abstract departing from previous literature using bootstrapped autoregressive metric causality approach which is more robust against non stationarity and break problems than lag augmented tests this study analyzes causal relation between economic growth and energy consumption in the next 11 countries estimating a trivariate model consisting of gdp per capita energy consumption per capita and gross capital formation it was found that the neutrality hypothesis is valid for all of the countries except for turkey these findings imply that energy conservation oriented policies should be implemented in bangladesh egypt indonesia iran korea mexico pakistan and philippines in the case of turkey a unidirectional causal nexus was found from energy consumption to economic growth since the growth hypothesis is valid energy conservation policy poses an obstacle for economic growth in turkey

risky monetary aggregates for the uk and us abstract we extend the scope of monetary aggregation beyond capital certain assets that make up central bank data sets and identify groups of assets that form monetary aggregates composed of both capital certain and risky capital uncertain assets we construct monetary aggregates for the us and uk using a superlative index and relax a key assumption of the consumption capital asset pricing model ccapm a one year planning horizon by using forecasted returns on risky assets our new risky monetary aggregates perform well in var tests we recommended exploring risky assets as providers of liquidity services in future research on this topic

tests of microeconomic foundations of a north american common currency area the movement of some members of the european union towards a common currency area is likely to spark interest in other possible common currency areas one such area of interest is a north american common currency area in this paper some results from tests of microeconomic foundations of a north american common currency area are presented these results can be viewed as favourable for the formation of a north american common currency area jel classification f33 f36 tests des fondements micro economiques d une union monetaire en amerique du nord le deplacement de certains membres de l union europeenne vers une monnaie commune va vraisemblablement susciter de l interet pour ce genre d arrangement dans d autres parties du monde un de ces autres lieux ou il y a un interet pour une union monetaire est l amerique du nord dans ce texte on presente certains resultats de tests des fondements micro economiques d une zone monetaire commune en amerique du nord ces resultats peuvent etre consideres comme favorables a la formation d une union monetaire nord americaine

financial development and energy consumption in central and eastern european frontier economies this study examines the impact of financial development on energy consumption in a sample of 9 central and eastern european frontier economies several different measures of financial development are examined including bank related variables and stock market variables the empirical results obtained from dynamic panel demand models show a positive and statistically significant relationship between financial development and energy consumption when financial development is measured using banking variables like deposit money bank assets to gdp financial system deposits to gdp or liquid liabilities to gdp of the three stock market variables investigated only one stock market turnover has a positive and statistically significant impact on energy consumption both short run and long run elasticities are presented the implications of these results for energy policy are discussed

the economic consequences of debilitating illness the case of multiple sclerosis the economic consequences of debilitating illness are defined and then estimated for one such illness multiple sclerosis economic losses are defined as the consumption losses to the affected household because of illness these losses are measured as the change in earnings of all family members plus the increase in gross not out of pocket medical costs earnings models are specified and estimated and gross medical costs calculated for multiple sclerosis the average annual loss to the multiple sclerosis household is 5 336 per year in 1976 dollars the estimated aggregate decline in consumption for the year 1976 was 0 656 billion lifetime costs discounting by 0 06 total 207 200 per multiple sclerosis household and 25 50 billion for society as a whole for the current 1976 pool of multiple sclerosis patients and 30 45 billion for all future multiple sclerosis patients copyright 1987 by mit press

electricity consumption and economic growth in china abstract this paper applies the error correction model to examine the causal relationship between electricity consumption and real gdp for china during 1971 2000 our estimation results indicate that real gdp and electricity consumption for china are cointegrated and there is unidirectional granger causality running from electricity consumption to real gdp but not vice versa in order to overcome the constraints on electricity consumption the chinese government has to speed up the nation wide interconnection of power networks to upgrade urban and rural distribution grids and to accelerate rural electrification

energy growth conundrum in energy exporting and importing countries evidence from heterogeneous panel methods robust to cross sectional dependence abstract this article uses the panel methods for energy exporting and importing countries that discuss the heterogeneity and cross sectional dependence in investigating the linkages between energy consumption and economic growth the findings of the study suggest that the energy consumption is an important input not only in the energy importing but also in energy exporting countries furthermore the results of the present paper suggest that the policy options should be different for the different countries in the back drop of heterogeneous slope coefficients

a non parametric analysis of personal sector decisions on consumption liquid assets and leisure this paper uses the non parametric techniques developed by varian i982 i983 and afriat i967 1973 from the theory of revealed preference see samuelson 1947 to address a number of questions of interest to those who model the determination of consumption liquid assets and leisure hours 1 the primary assumption underlying much work in this area whether it deals with highly aggregated categories such as the consumption of non durables or relatively disaggregated categories such as the consumption of energy products or food is that demand functions for consumer goods are consistent with the hypothesis that they are derived from the maximisation of a well behaved utility function subject to a relevant budget constraint the absence of liquid assets or leisure from such studies involves the implicit assumption of weak separability between consumption goods and these other goods the parametric approach then assumes a particular functional form for either the utility function indirect utility function or cost function and estimates the parameters that best describe the data however as varian i983 points out when it comes to testing hypotheses in such a framework it is always a joint hypothesis comprising both the restrictions and the choice of functional form which is being tested 2 to avoid this problem varian developed the nonparametric revealed preference approach to provide algebraic conditions which are imposed by maximising behaviour on a set of data with a finite number of observations this non parametric approach is exploited here in several ways there have been a number of studies using a parametric approach at a fairly disaggregated level to the determinants of consumers expenditure see for example deaton i974 anderson and blundell i982 and ray i984 for applications using

causal nexus between energy consumption and economic growth for high middle and low income countries using frequency domain analysis abstract this study aims to investigate the causal nexus between energy consumption and economic growth for 119 countries from all over the world having at least 30 years of available data on candidate variables including 30 high income oecd 13 high income non oecd 65 middle income and 11 low income countries the study employs granger causality in the frequency domain context for empirical analysis which allows one to examine the causal nexus over different frequencies and thus provides relatively a better picture of the causal nexus between the candidate variables in particular we examine the temporary short run as well as at permanent long run causal nexus between energy consumption and economic growth the empirical results suggest that 18 countries including 5 high income oecd 2 high income non oecd 10 middle income and 1 low income confirm the existence of feedback hypothesis 25 countries including 4 high income oecd 3 high income non oecd 14 middle income and 4 low income confirm growth hypothesis out of total 119 countries similarly 40 countries including 6 high income oecd 6 high income non oecd 27 middle income and 1 low income suggest conservation hypothesis while 36 countries comprising of 15 high income oecd 2 high income non oecd 14 middle income and 5 low income hold neutrality hypothesis between energy consumption and economic growth out of 119 countries the findings of the study suggest that an appropriate and effective public policy is required for all sample countries both in the short and long term while considering sustainable economic growth and development

energy consumption economic growth and prices a reassessment using panel vecm for developed and developing countries this paper reinvestigates the energy consumption gdp growth nexus in a panel error correction model using data on 20 net energy importers and exporters from 1971 to 2002 among the energy exporters there was bidirectional causality between economic growth and energy consumption in the developed countries in both the short and long run while in the developing countries energy consumption stimulates growth only in the short run the former result is also found for energy importers and the latter result exists only for the developed countries within this category in addition compared to the developing countries the developed countries elasticity response in terms of economic growth from an increase in energy consumption is larger although its income elasticity is lower and less than unitary lastly the implications for energy policy calling for a more holistic approach are discussed c 2006 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

the swiss payment for milk processed into cheese ex post and ex ante analysis we make use of both an ex post and an ex ante evaluation to analyze the swiss payment for milk processed into cheese this payment for each kilogram of raw milk processed into cheese is issued to milk producers through dairy processors in the ex post evaluation by applying a vector autoregressive model we estimate the effects of reductions of the payment for prices of raw milk used to produce emmentaler gruyere and industrial cheese past declines in the payment have only been partially transmitted to raw milk prices the rate of transmission is higher for milk used for the production of industrial cheese than for artisan cheeses in the ex ante impact evaluation we use a partial equilibrium model and develop a counterfactual scenario in which the payment is removed the payment for milk processed into cheese is found to have effects on cheese production and exports but also has important indirect effects on other dairy products our findings suggest that about two thirds of the payment are benefiting milk producers at the same time the overall welfare losses resulting from the elimination of the aid are smaller than the budget allocated to this measure suggesting a net welfare gain from elimination

is energy consumption sensitive to foreign capital inflows and currency devaluation in pakistan this study investigates the relationship between foreign capital inflows and energy consumption by incorporating economic growth exports and currency devaluation in energy demand function for the

sectoral energy consumption by source and economic growth in turkey this paper provides a detailed analysis of the energy consumption in turkey during the last 40 years it investigates the causal relationships between income and energy consumption in two ways first the relationship is studied at the aggregate level then we focus on the industrial sector previous findings suggest that in the case of turkey there is a unidirectional causality running from energy consumption to growth however our findings suggest that in the long run income and energy consumption appear to be neutral with respect to each other both at the aggregate and at the industrial level we also find a strong evidence of instantaneous causality which means that contemporaneous values of energy consumption and income are correlated furthermore a descriptive analysis is conducted in order to reveal the differences in the use of energy resources we conclude that energy conservation policies are necessary for environmental concerns and our empirical results imply that such policies would not impede economic growth in the long term

cointegration and dynamic time series models abstract this paper provides a survey of some of the recent developments in the field of econometric modelling with cointegrated time series in particular we describe the testing and estimation procedures which have become increasingly popular in the recent applied literature in addition to the two stage procedure proposed by engle and granger we consider extensions to the modelling of dynamic models with cointegrated variables such as the estimation of models with multiple cointegration vectors simultaneous systems models with seasonally integrated and cointegrated variables furthermore we illustrate the practical application of the techniques describes in the paper by means of a tutorial data set

co2 emissions energy consumption and output in france abstract this paper examines the dynamic causal relationships between pollutant emissions energy consumption and output for france using cointegration and vector error correction modelling techniques we argue that these variables are strongly inter related and therefore their relationship must be examined using an integrated framework the results provide evidence for the existence of a fairly robust long run relationship between these variables for the period 1960 2000 the causality results support the argument that economic growth exerts a causal influence on growth of energy use and growth of pollution in the long run the results also point to a uni directional causality running from growth of energy use to output growth in the short run

portfolio theory and currency substitution one of the major reasons friedman 1953 and johnson 1972 advocated flexible exchange rates was to eliminate supply side monetary substitutability which can incapacitate domestic monetary policy however contributors to the currency substitution literature including miles 1978 girton and roper 1981 and mckinnon 1982 have argued that when economic agents hold both domestic and foreign monies variations in foreign interest rates or expected future exchange rates can make domestic money demand functions unstable as economic agents shift resources in response to changes in prospective relative returns as a result they and others have claimed that flexible exchange rates may not secure domestic monetary autonomy l the major purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the conditions under which foreign and domestic monies are substitutes in demand when economic agents have motives to hold both and to contrast the determinants of currency substitutability with those of the more general concept of asset substitutability importantly it is demonstrated that the usual portfolio theoretic justification for including opportunity cost variables such as foreign interest rates foreign inflation rates or expected

scenario based forecast for the electricity demand in qatar and the role of energy efficiency improvements abstract we model the electricity consumption in the market segment that compose the qatari electricity market we link electricity consumption to gdp growth and population growth building on the estimated model we develop long range forecasts of electricity consumption from 2017 to 2030 over different scenarios for the economic drivers in addition we proxy for electricity efficiency improvements by reducing the long run elasticity of electricity consumption to gdp and population we show that electricity efficiency has a crucial role in controlling the future development of electricity consumption energy policies should consider this aspect and support both electricity efficiency improvement programs as well as a price reform

energy consumption gdp nexus heterogeneous panel causality analysis abstract existing studies examining the granger causality relationship between energy consumption and gdp use a panel of countries but implicitly assume that the panels are homogeneous this paper extends the granger causality relationship between energy consumption and gdp by taking into account panel heterogeneity for this purpose we use a large panel of 79 countries for the period 1980 2007 specifically we examine four different causal relationships homogeneous non causality homogeneous causality heterogeneous non causality and heterogeneous causality the results show that roughly seven tenths of the countries exhibit bi directional granger causality two tenths exhibit no granger causality and one tenths exhibit uni directional granger causality

an econometric study of co2 emissions energy consumption income and foreign trade in turkey abstract this study attempts to empirically examine the dynamic causal relationships between carbon emissions energy consumption income and foreign trade in the case of turkey using the time series data for the period 1960 2005 this research tests the interrelationship between the variables using the bounds testing to cointegration procedure the bounds test results indicate that there exist two forms of long run relationships between the variables in the case of first form of long run relationship carbon emissions are determined by energy consumption income and foreign trade in the case of second long run relationship income is determined by carbon emissions energy consumption and foreign trade an augmented form of granger causality analysis is conducted amongst the variables the long run relationship of co2 emissions energy consumption income and foreign trade equation is also checked for the parameter stability the empirical results suggest that income is the most significant variable in explaining the carbon emissions in turkey which is followed by energy consumption and foreign trade moreover there exists a stable carbon emissions function the results also provide important policy recommendations

renewable energy oil prices and economic activity a granger causality in quantiles analysis this paper analyzes the causal relationship between renewable energy consumption oil prices and economic activity in the united states from july 1989 to july 2016 considering all quantiles of the distribution although the concept of granger causality is defined for the conditional distribution the majority of papers have tested granger causality using conditional mean regression models in which the causal relations are linear we apply a granger causality in quantiles analysis that evaluates causal relations in each quantile of the distribution under this approach we can discriminate between causality affecting the median and the tails of the conditional distribution we find evidence of bi directional causality between changes in renewable energy consumption and economic growth at the lowest tail of the distribution besides changes in renewable energy consumption lead economic growth at the highest tail of the distribution our results also support the unidirectional causality from fluctuations in oil prices to economic growth at the extreme quantiles of the distribution finally we find evidence of lower tail dependence from changes in oil prices to changes in renewable energy consumption our findings call for government policies aimed at developing renewable energy markets to increase energy efficiency in the u s

economic growth inequality and poverty estimating the growth elasticity of poverty summary this paper uses a new data set of 126 intervals from 60 developing countries to analyze the growth elasticity of poverty that is how much does poverty decline in percentage terms with a given percentage rise in economic growth the data set is both broader in coverage and more selective in terms of quality controls than those used in the past the study finds that while economic growth does reduce poverty in developing countries the rate of poverty reduction depends very much on how economic growth is defined controlling for changes in income inequality when economic growth is measured by changes in survey mean income consumption the growth elasticity of poverty excluding eastern europe and central asia is 2 79 that is a 10 increase in the survey mean will reduce poverty 1 00 person day by 27 9 but when growth is measured by changes in gdp per capita the growth elasticity of poverty is a statistically insignificant 2 27 which is lower than has previously been estimated

atheoretical macroeconometrics a critique abstract the spurious nature of the restrictions used to identify many macroeconometric models has led some researchers to advocate a style of econometric inquiry that is less dependent on prior theoretical restrictions of the sort that were central to the approach of the cowles commission this development which we call atheoretical macroeconometrics is summarized and evaluated in the current paper it is contrasted with an updated version of the cowles commission approach we conclude that while some of the exercises of atheoretical macroeconometrics are valid those that have attracted the most attention and appear the most innovative exogeneity testing impulse response analysis and policy analysis using estimated vector autoregressions are based on incorrect analysis

is energy consumption per capita broken stationary new evidence from regional based panels abstract for the first time a new panel unit root testing procedure developed by 51 carrion i silvestre et al 2005 breaking the panels an application to gdp per capita econometrics journal 8 159 175 is applied to re investigate the stationarity of energy consumption per capita for 7 regional panel sets covering the 1971 2002 period with structural breaks and cross sectional correlations introduced into the model it becomes clear that all regional based panels of energy consumption per capita are stationary the structural breakpoints identify the likely causes of major changes in energy consumption in the past the findings underscore the importance of accounting for exogenous shocks to a series and offer several important implications for policy makers and energy economists

causality between energy consumption and output growth in the indian cement industry an application of the panel vector error correction model vecm abstract the aim of this paper is to examine the existence and direction of the causal relationship between energy consumption and output growth in the indian cement industry for the period 1979 80 to 2004 05 the most recently developed panel unit root a heterogeneous panel cointegration and panel based error correction model is applied within a multivariate framework the empirical results confirm a positive long run cointegrated relationship between output and energy consumption when heterogeneous state effects are taken into account we also found a long run bi directional relationship between energy consumption and output growth in the indian cement industry for the study period implying that an increase in energy consumption directly affects the growth of this sector and that growth stimulates further energy consumption these empirical findings imply that energy consumption and output are jointly determined and affect each other the empirical evidence also suggests the implementation of energy conservation policies oriented toward improving energy use efficiency to avoid any negative impacts of the conservation policies on the growth of this industry

the relationship between energy and gnp further results this paper reexamines the casuality between gnp and energy consumption by using updated us data for the period 1947 1979 as a secondary contribution we investigate the causal relationship between energy consumption and employment applying sims technique we find no causal relationship between gnp and energy consumption we find further that there is a slight unidirectional flow running from employment to energy consumption economic interpretations of the empirical results are also presented

admissible monetary aggregates for the euro area we use the fleissig and whitney fleissig a r whitney g a 2003 a new pc based test for varian s weak separability conditions journal of business and economics statistics 21 1 133 144 weak separability test to determine admissible levels of monetary aggregation for the euro area we find that the euro area monetary assets in m2 and m3 are weakly separable and construct admissible divisia monetary aggregates for these assets we show that real growth of the admissible divisia aggregates enters the euro area is curve positively and significantly for the period from 1980 to 2005 out of sample we show that divisia m2 and m3 appear to contain useful information for forecasting euro area inflation

disaggregated industrial energy consumption and gdp the case of shanghai 1952 1999 abstract this paper investigates the causal relationship between various kinds of industrial energy consumption and gdp in shanghai for the period 1952 1999 using a modified version of the granger 1969 causality test proposed by toda and yamamoto j econ 66 1995 225 the empirical evidence from disaggregated energy series seems to suggest that there was a uni directional granger causality running from coal coke electricity and total energy consumption to real gdp but no granger causality running in any direction between oil consumption and real gdp

on energy consumption and gdp studies a meta analysis of the last two decades abstract the relationship between energy consumption and gdp growth has been intensely examined in multiple frameworks set by various methods and countries this paper is a meta analysis of 51 studies published in the last two decades with worldwide data since 1949 on the relationship between energy consumption and gdp growth the aim is to systemize some of the factors that cause the variation of results in these studies our results yield evidence that the long run elasticity of gdp growth with respect to energy consumption is not independent of the method employed for cointegration the data type and the inclusion of variables such as the price level or capital in the cointegration equation also 1 increase in capital increases the elasticity of gdp with respect to energy consumption by 0 85

a multivariate cointegration analysis of the role of energy in the us macroeconomy abstract this paper extends my previous analysis of the causal relationship of gdp and energy use in the usa in the post war period a majority of the relevant variables are integrated justifying a cointegration analysis the results show that cointegration does occur and that energy input cannot be excluded from the cointegration space the results are plausible in terms of macroeconomic dynamics the results are similar to my previous granger causality results and contradict claims in the literature based on bivariate models that there is no cointegration between energy and output

the energy gdp nexus addressing an old question with new methods abstract this paper reassesses the causal relationship between per capita energy use and gross domestic product while controlling for capital and labour productivity inputs in a panel of 30 oecd countries over the past 40 years the paper uses panel unit root and cointegration testing and specifies an appropriate vector error correction model to analyse the nexus between income and energy use in doing so we contribute to an old debate using modern tools that shed a new light there is some evidence that over the very short run bidirectional causality exists our results also show a strong unidirectional causality running from capital formation and gdp to energy usage in the long run the reverse causality found in recent work is lost we then show that we can reproduce these earlier results in our data if we reproduce a slightly misspecified model for the engle granger two step procedure used in these earlier papers our findings thus imply that results are very sensitive to model misspecification and careful testing of specifications is required our results have some strong policy implications they suggest that policies aimed at reducing energy usage or promoting energy efficiency are not likely to have a detrimental effect on economic growth except over the very short run

causality between trade openness and energy consumption what causes what in high middle and low income countries abstract this paper explores the relationship between trade openness and energy consumption using data of 91 high middle and low income countries the study covers the period of 1980 2010 we have applied panel cointegration to examine long run relationship between the variables the direction of causal relationship between trade openness is investigated by applying homogenous non causality homogenous causality and heterogeneous causality tests our variables are integrated at i 1 confirmed by time series and panel unit root tests and cointegration is found between trade openness and energy consumption the relationship between trade openness and energy consumption is inverted u shaped in high income countries but u shaped in middle and low income countries the homogenous and non homogenous causality analysis reveals the bidirectional causality between trade openness and energy consumption this paper opens up new insights for policy makers to design a comprehensive economic trade and policies for sustainable economic growth in long run following heterogeneous causality findings

energy income causality in oecd countries revisited the key role of capital stock abstract this paper applies a recent advance in panel analysis to estimate the panel cointegration and panel vector error correction models for a set of 22 oecd countries using annual data covering the period 1960 2001 we investigate the relationship between energy consumption and income using an aggregate production function and controlling for the capital stock as well as by exploring the dynamic directions of the causality among these three variables we firstly obtain solid and convincing evidence of a fairly strong long run equilibrium relationship among them secondly it is found that the capital stock is much more productive than energy consumption third it is observed that neglecting the impact of the capital stock on income tends to overestimate the effect of energy consumption finally the panel causality test shows bi directional causal linkages exist among energy consumption the capital stock and economic growth overall the findings reveal that the capital stock plays a critical role in realizing the dynamic relationship between energy and income

correlation analysis of co 2 emissions material stocks and economic growth nexus evidence from chinese provinces abstract a better understanding of the economy material emissions nexus is fundamental in order to reveal the interactions between human development and the natural environment and more importantly to design integrated de carbonization and de materialization policies in this paper we conducted a decoupling analysis of fossil fuel induced co2 emissions and in use material stocks in infrastructure to economic growth at the provincial level in china and investigated the trilateral causal relationships among the three indicators the results show that the average elasticity of co2 emissions and material stocks to economic growth was smaller than 1 representing a status of relative decoupling however in many less developed provinces in central and western china we observed increasing trends of elasticity in the past three decades which suggest their economic growth became more tightly linked to co2 emissions and the accumulation of material stocks granger tests suggest that in the long run there existed a unidirectional causality running from co2 emissions economic growth and urbanization to material stocks in the short run a bi directional causality between co2 emissions and economic growth and a unidirectional causality from material stocks to co2 emissions were detected policy implications for the de carbonization and de materialization transition include enhancing renewable energy utilization upgrading industries to less carbon intensive ones developing compact cities prolonging the lifespan of infrastructure and strengthening the life cycle carbon management of infrastructure

comparisons of decoupling trends of global economic growth and energy consumption between developed and developing countries abstract the development of economy in developing countries is expected to contribute mostly to the growth of world energy consumption using environment impact gdp technology igt decoupling model we carry out a comparative study on the decoupling trends of economic growth and energy consumption for both developed and developing countries in past five decades 1965 2015 the results indicate that the decoupling indices of developed countries are superior to that of developing countries the specific performances are 1 the decoupling indices of developed countries are shown to be stable and tend to approximate absolute decoupling 2 the decoupling indices of developing countries fluctuate in the relative decoupling interval on this basis this research employs grey relational analysis gra to explore the reasons resulting in the difference of decoupling indices from the perspective of technical progress industrial structure and economic growth pattern the findings show that in developed countries technical progress factor exerts greatest influence on decoupling indices followed by industrial structure and economic growth pattern in developing countries industrial structure and economic growth pattern have greater impact on decoupling indices than technical progress based on research conclusion this research offers developing countries relevant policy suggestions for energy saving and emission reduction in the future

exploring the effects of energy consumption on output per worker a study of albania bulgaria hungary and romania in this article we explore the long run cointegration between output capital and energy consumption in per worker terms for albania bulgaria hungary and romania we use the augmented solow 1956 model and the ardl bounds procedure pesaran et al 2001 to examine the short run and long run effects of energy and capital on output in per worker terms we also conduct causality test using the toda and yamamoto 1995 non causality procedure our results show the existence of long run cointegration between output per worker and energy per worker for all the four countries we find that energy per worker have a dynamic short run positive effect in albania 0 37 bulgaria 0 25 hungary 0 36 and romania 0 68 and a long run positive effect in bulgaria 0 32 and romania 0 63 which duly indicate that energy consumption has a momentous long run effect in these two countries the causality results indicate a unidirectional causation from output per worker to energy per worker for all the four countries and from capital per worker to energy per worker for albania and romania consequently a balance between effective energy consumption and sound energy conservation policies are likely to support economic growth in the four countries

energy consumption real income and temporal causality results from a multi country study based on cointegration and error correction modelling techniques abstract unlike previous studies on the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth this paper illustrates how the finding of cointegration i e long term equilibrium relationship between these variables may be used in testing granger causality based on the most recent johansen s multivariate cointegration tests preceded by various unit root or non stationarity tests we test for cointegration between total energy consumption and real income of six asian economies india pakistan malaysia singapore indonesia and the philippines non rejection of cointegration between variables rules out granger non causality and imples at least one way of granger causality either unidirectional or bidirectionial secondly by using a dynamic vector error correction model we then analyse the direction of granger causation and hence the within sample granger exogeneity or endogeneity of each of the variables thirdly the relative strength of the causality is gauged through the dynamic variance decomposition technique by decomposing the total impact of an unanticipated shock to each of the variables beyond the sample period into proportions attributable to shocks in the other variables including its own in the bivariate system results based on these tools of methodology indicate that while all pair wise relationships shared common univariate integrational properties only relationships for three countries india pakistan and indonesia were cointegrated for these countries temporal causality results were mixed with unidirectional causality from energy to income for india exactly the reverse for indonesia and mutual causality for pakistan the vdcs were not inconsistent with these results and provided us with an additional insight as to the relatively more dominant direction of causation in pakistan simple bivariate vector autoregressive models for the three non cointegrated systems did not indicate any direction of causality significantly in either direction

the canadian u s exchange rate evidence from a vector autoregression a vector autoregression is used to elicit the empirical facts co ncerning exchange rate movements the author finds 1 the exchange rate relati ve price levels and trade balances are closely related 2 most other lagged v ariables have no perceptible influence in theexchange rate equation 3 exchan ge rate innovations are negativelycorrelated with innovations in output and pri ces positively with innovations in the balance of trade and almost not at all with innovations in money and 4 impulses in money trade balances and govern ment spending are followed by opposing future movements in theexchange rate and the price level taken as a whole the evidence suggests that exchange rate cha nges may be associated with real rather than monetary shocks copyright 1986 by mit press

lag length selection and tests of granger causality between money and income one of the most widely accepred relationships in macroeconomics is the positive relationship between the rate of growth of the money supply and the rate of growth of income a diversity of opinion arises however with the attempt to identify a causal relationship between these variables while friedman and schwartz 1963 initiated the empirical investigation of money income causality sims 1972 made the most significant contribution to this literature with a practical application of the criterion developed by granger 1969 for identifying a causal relationship since the appearance of sims s approach and an alternative one advanced by sargent 1976 many researchers have applied these techniques to the investigation of the causal relationship between money and income l with two exceptions hsiao 1981 and mcmillin and fackler 1984 these researchers have arbitrarily chosen the lengths of their distributed lags the purpose of this paper is to test for granger causality between money and income this paper differs from previous work in that considerably more attention is focused on the effect of the lag specification on the test results in particular we investigate the extent to which rules of thumb arbitrary lag specifications and

contestable markets under uncertainty in this article we present a model of a market which is ex post contestable we show that in a market characterized by uncertainty a firm will face a tradeoff between efficiency and flexibility and generally will make some precommitments to take advantage of ex ante technologies we show that in the face of potential entry the incumbent will increase his precommitments and in so doing will affect the probability of entry the degree of market contestability is therefore endogenously determined by the choice of precommitments the extent to which precommitments will be used to affect entry probabilities is shown to depend on the efficiency of ex ante production adjustment costs and the degree of uncertainty in particular we show that the market becomes more contestable as the relative efficiency of ex post production increases and as market conditions become more uncertain

monetary integration and currency substitution in the ems the case for a european monetary aggregate abstract this paper examines the phenomenon of cross currency substitution and the validity of monetary aggregation within the european monetary system using non parametric methods which exploit the relationship between intergroup substitution and separability the separability property is tested using the methodology developed by varian the nonparametric approach to demand analysis econometrica 50 945 974 1982 nonparametric tests of consumer behaviour review of economic studies 51 99 110 1983 and is violated in the case of most european countries suggesting that the hypothesis of zero currency substitution which forms the basis of national monetary aggregation should be rejected the results do however validate the use of monetary aggregates for the ems as a whole and i use a standard parametric demand for money approach to compare the performance of an ems divisia index with that of simple sum aggregates during the 1980s and 1990s

government expenditure and energy intensity in china the recent economic stimulus package of china has raised growing concern about its potential impact on energy demand and efficiency to what extent does such expansion of government expenditure influence energy intensity this question has not been well answered by the previous research using provincial panel data this paper provides some evidence of a link between government expenditure and energy intensity in china the empirical results demonstrate that the expansion of government expenditure since asian financial crisis has exerted a significant influence on energy intensity an increase in government expenditure in china leads to an increase in energy intensity further analysis compares such relationships in different economic situations the comparison shows that such positive effect of government expenditure remains significant after the alteration in economic situation therefore the results suggest introducing some measures to consolidate china s existing gains in energy efficiency the analysis also explains why the downward trend in energy intensity is reversed in china since 2002

modeling the ecu against the u s dollar a structural monetary interpretation the proposal that a reformed international monetary system be designed around currency blocs has gained some popularity of late in europe the formation of the euro formalizes the existence of a dm based currency block little academic research has been conducted however on the properties of composite currencies such as the euro in this article we examine the properties of the precursor to the euro namely the ecu against the u s dollar using a monetary framework the article has several novel features our modeling strategy involves starting with underlying equilibrium conditions rather than a final reduced form uses divisia money rather than the more conventional simple sum money interprets in an economic sense the long run relationships and produces an appealing forecasting performance

dynamics of electricity consumption oil price and economic growth global perspective this study uses the data from 157 countries from 1960 to 2014 to analyze the relationship between economic growth electricity consumption oil prices capital and labor the economic growth of developing countries with industrial infrastructure has a more significant association with electricity consumption than oil prices we use oil prices and electricity consumption jointly to study highly predictive observations for economic growth the data are categorized by income oecd and regional levels the panel cointegration long run parameter estimation and pool mean group tests are used to analyze the cointegration and short run and long run relationships between the variables the empirical results indicate the presence of cointegration between the variables the presence of feedback effects between electricity consumption and economic growth oil prices and economic growth is valid these findings confirm that in spite of the oil prices developing countries rely heavily on electricity consumption for economic growth in the short run growth and feedback effects suggest that more vigorous electricity policies should be implemented to attain sustainable economic growth for the long term

non parametric tests of consumer behaviour the neoclassical model of consumer behaviour postulates that a consumer s choice behaviour can be described as deriving from utility maximization subject to a budget constraint one is then naturally led to ask what this model implies about observed behaviour this question has been addressed from two quite distinct approaches the first approach originating in the work of slutsky 1915 and antonelli 1886 derives necessary and sufficient conditions involving the derivatives of the demand functions the second approach originating in the work of samuelson 1938 1947 1948 derives algebraic conditions on the demand functions implied by maximizing behaviour

the interdependent relationship between sectoral productivity and disaggregated energy consumption in malaysia markov switching approach abstract this study examines the interdependent relationship between sectoral productivity and disaggregated energy consumption in malaysia by employing the markov switching technique several outcomes are reached firstly the regime movement of gdp during regime 2 is influenced by disaggregated energy consumption secondly industrial and manufacturing productivity of regime 1 and regime 2 responded with disaggregated energy consumption finally the regimes carbon emissions depend on both of manufacturing and industrial productivity this study recommends efficient consumption of energy and the use of green technology in order to minimise energy consumptions and environment pollution

the impact of human behavior on ecological threshold positive or negative grey relational analysis of ecological footprint energy consumption and environmental protection human behavior has the positive and negative impact on ecosystem to study the interaction between ecosystem and behavior system per capita energy ecological footprint eef is selected as the ecosystem threshold elasticity coefficient of environmental investment ecei and elasticity coefficient of energy consumption ecec represent the positive and negative human impact on ecosystem respectively it takes shanghai china as the empirical area to implement grey relational analysis of per capita eef consist of coal coke fuel oil and electricity ecec and ecei from 1978 to 2010 the grey correlation coefficients show that negative behavior of energy consumption has the closer influence on the ecosystem than positive behavior of environmental protection electricity is the most significant factor of the energy consumption and the highest sensitive indicator to the environmental capital input output from the perspective of government policy energy saving is more efficient than emission reduction reducing the negative activities is imminent in the current process of development

a flexible multistage demand system based on indirect separability the notion of indirect separability is exploited to derive a new multistage demand system the model allows a consistent parameterization of demand relations at various budgeting stages and it fulfills the requirement of flexibility while satisfying separability globally two propositions are derived to characterize flexible and separable functional forms which lead to the specification of a flexible and separable translog fast demand system the model is particularly attractive for modeling large complete demand systems and is illustrated with an application

energy consumption and economic growth the case of oil exporting countries this paper examines the causal relationship between the per capita energy consumption and the per capita gdp in a panel of 11 selected oil exporting countries by using panel unit root tests and panel cointegration analysis the results show a unidirectional strong causality from economic growth to energy consumption for the oil exporting countries the findings have practical policy implications for decision makers in the area of macroeconomic planning in most major oil exporting countries government policies keep domestic prices bellow free market level resulting in high levels of domestic energy consumption the results imply that the energy conservation through reforming energy price policies has no damaging repercussions on economic growth for this group of countries

electricity demand and conservation potential in the chinese nonmetallic mineral products industry newhuadu business school research fund ministry of education foundation 10jzd0018 10jbg013 china sustainable energy program g 1103 13921 national social science foundation 09zd050

energy consumption and economic growth in vietnam abstract this study attempts to analyse the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in vietnam using the neoclassical solow growth framework for the 1971 2011 period the concept and methods of cointegration and granger causality are used to establish the relationship between the variables of interest our results confirm the existence of cointegration among the variables in particular energy consumption fdi and capital stock were found positively influence economic growth in vietnam the granger causality test revealed unidirectional causality running from energy consumption to economic growth hence vietnam is an energy dependent economy and any energy or environment policy drawn up in an attempt to conserve energy will jeopardise the process of economic development in vietnam for this reason the renewable energy policy should be given attention to provide sufficient supplies of energy to speed up economic expansion investment in r d may be required to incentivise private public institutions to engage in this innovation while the awareness for energy saving policy among public could be integrated to meet social economic development

advantage to a risk neutral firm of flexible resources under demand uncertainty this paper shows that flexible resources resources that can be resold or switched between productive processes are valuable to firms facing uncertain demand it is assumed that the firm must make its input purchase decision before the demand for its final product is known it is this differential in timing of the purchase of inputs versus selling of outputs which is the special problem confronted in this paper and which makes the existence of a flexible resource valuable to the firm stigler in a 1939 article recognized that in a risky environment there are advantages to resources which are flexible but did not provide an optimizing model in his analysis 4 others such as turnovsky 5 appelbaum and lim 1 sheppard 3 and epstein 2 have examined this timing problem and have recognized as we do that in a market characterized by uncertainty a firm will face a trade off between efficiency and flexibility 1 39 however the issue of the advantage of flexible resources under uncertainty has not been directly examined usually because the focus has been on outputs rather than inputs 1 or on attitudes toward risk even when input choice is responsive to uncertainty as in epstein 2 the inputs are not flexible in our sense because it is only the timing of input purchase which is flexible not the uses to which inputs can be assigned of the several ways uncertainty in demand can be conceptualized for the firm these papers have commonly considered a situation where it is the product price which is uncertain 2 5 in contrast this paper assumes that while price is known the quantity demanded is uncertain this allows us to consider a slightly different kind of firm from the previous work the firm is assumed to be a pure price taker it might be in an oligopolistic industry where total industry demand is known but the market share for each firm has yet to be revealed 2 or the firm might be in a regulated industry where prices are set and all market adjustments come on the quantity side

energy conservation and sustainable economic growth the case of latin america and the caribbean this study examines the causal relationships among energy consumption economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions in twenty countries from latin america and the caribbean region the methodology includes the use of phillips and perron pp tests a cointegration model with vector error correction modeling vecm and vector autoregression var with granger causality the study concludes that of the twenty countries analyzed only in four of them will it be possible to implement energy conservation polices without affecting their economic growth four others are not able to consider an energy conservation policy with economic growth and the other twelve should focus on their economic growth before adopting any conservation policies energy efficiency was found in this region especially in the countries which have both cointegration and short term equilibrium

money growth volatility and the macroeconomy this study analyzes the effects of variability in money growth on the macroeconomy for the period 1961 1 1984 4 within the context of a vector autoregressive model that contains variables typically included in a small macro model variance decompositions and historical decompositions are used to assess the impact of money growth variability the variance decompositions suggest substantial effects of money growth variability on the long term interest rate output and the price level historical decompositions for 1979 4 1984 4 suggest substantial effects of money growth variability on the interest rate and output but smaller effects on the price level are found copyright 1988 by ohio state university press

the influence of energy consumption of china on its real gdp from aggregated and disaggregated viewpoints abstract this paper investigated the causal relationship between energy consumption and gross domestic product gdp in china at both aggregated and disaggregated levels during the period of 1978 2009 by using a modified version of the granger 1969 causality test proposed by toda and yamamoto 1995 within a multivariate framework the empirical results suggested the existence of a negative bi directional granger causality running from aggregated energy consumption to real gdp at disaggregated level of energy consumption the results were complicated for coal empirical findings suggested that there was a negative bi directional granger causality running from coal consumption to real gdp however for oil and gas empirical findings suggested a positive bi directional granger causality running from oil as well as gas consumption to real gdp though these results supported the feedback hypothesis the negative relationship might be attributed to the growing economy production shifting towards less energy intensive sectors and excessive energy consumption in relatively unproductive sectors the results indicated that policies with reducing aggregated energy consumption and promoting energy conservation may boost china s economic growth