wind energy in malaysia past present and future in recent years the malaysian government has attempted to develop renewable energy re through newly introduced regulatory supports after 30 years of failure to achieve a greater than one percent non hydroelectric re share in the total power mix the government is currently assessing the onshore wind energy potential in malaysia to determine the possibility of including wind energy in its fit scheme however wind energy development in this low energy location is not as straightforward as it would seem many previous wind studies in malaysia have relied on poor data and simplistic or inadequate methodologies resulting in grossly inaccurate estimates of wind potential moreover two wind turbine generator demonstration projects executed by the government have failed however above all the greatest factor impairing the progress of re development in malaysia is the weak and uncertain political support of these efforts this lack of robust support is particularly true where fossil fuels are still heavily subsidised amid the subsidy reform in 2013 a review of global wind energy development shows that successful projects depend heavily on a sound and robust regulatory framework supported by strong and consistent political will this dependence is not observed in malaysia where the government continues to subsidise private independent fossil fuel power producers but levies taxes on electricity consumers to fund re development these levies do not effectively support re development given the magnitude of the re fund compared to fossil fuel subsidies in the absence of strong and sincere political will the progress of re development in malaysia has been notably slow as a result the prospect of wind energy development in malaysia currently remains vague this paper discusses the above issues in detail and recommends selected regulatory mechanisms based on the global experience of supporting re development in malaysia

the inequalities of public utility products in china from the perspective of the atkinson index abstract the chinese households make up approximately a quarter of the world s total compared with its size of population china s reserves of natural resources are relatively limited with the actual concerns about sustainable development in china we should pay more attention to the unequal distribution of energy which may result low efficiency and wasting of energy therefore how to best allocate the scarce public utility products pups for the household usage should be closely addressed in terms of equity and efficiency based on the micro household level data from crecs which investigated in 2013 in different scales city all over the country we measure the distribution of pups consumption quantitatively and evaluate the inequality of household income expenditures on electricity gas and water in the china s residential sector by using the atkinson index the results show that the atkinson index of households total pups consumption in medium scale city is equal to 0 0261 which is 83 0 higher than that of large scale city and 35 6 higher than that of small scale city it indicates that the inequalities of pups and income are greater in medium scale cities than in large scale and small scale cities considering the sustainability of pups we suggest further reform in china s public utility sectors the government should take more consideration on equality and efficiency of distribution and ensure that people have equal living standards especially for the low income households who serve as the main anchor for the sustainable development of china

on the dynamics of demand for leisure and the production of health our article develops and estimates a structural model of household health production that jointly determines the demand for leisure and the demand for consumption for elderly males we use a stochastic dynamic programming framework based on the assumption that an individual maximizes lifetime utility subject to budget and time constraints and a health production function by choosing hours of leisure and levels of consumption of health related and health neutral goods and services moreover we use a very comprehensive health index that combines four scales measuring a variety of dimensions in the quality of life the euler equations derived from our model are estimated using data from six biennial panels of the retirement history survey

market share market value and innovation in a panel of british manufacturing firms this paper examines the empirical relationship between technological innovations market share and stock market value new developments in the estimation of dynamic count data models are used to control for unobserved firm specific heterogeneity we find a robust and positive effect of market share on observable headcounts of innovations and patents although increased product market competition in the industry tends to stimulate innovative activity furthermore the impact of innovation on market value is larger for firms with higher market shares we argue that our results are consistent with models where high market share firms have incentives to pre emptively innovate

study on the optimal supervision strategy of government low carbon subsidy and the corresponding efficiency and stability in the small world network context abstract the optimal strategy for the government to supervise low carbon subsidy is studied in this paper as well as the problem of supervision efficiency and supervision stability firstly the evolutionary game models are constructed in un supervision and supervision cases respectively based on agents of the government and enterprises and three supervision strategies and related rules are given secondly the supervision efficiency and supervision stability are discussed based on the established small world network model then the optimal supervision strategy and the corresponding optimal supervision probability are obtained moreover parameter sensitivity analysis is carried out based on benefit stability the simulation results show that 1 the optimal strategy for the government to supervise low carbon subsidy is random supervision of enterprises who declare high subsidy with the optimal probability of supervision 0 48 and the overall optimal supervision probability 0 24 2 the supervision efficiency and supervision stability can not achieve at the same time however in order to maximize the revenues of both agents the measure of efficiency first and stability second can be considered 3 when there is more noise in the environment the average revenues of both agents are lower and the benefit stability is worse when the supervision cost is higher the result is the same as the case with more noise in the environment however the increase in punishment cost does not necessarily lead to the increase in revenue when punishment cost increases to a certain extent and continues to increase the revenues of both agents reduce first and then increase and the benefit stability becomes worse first and then better finally the related policy recommendations and future work are presented

asymmetric loss and herding behaviour of exchange rate forecasters evidence from south africa this study examines the asymmetry of the loss function for private forecasters in exchange rate forecasts of the south african rand it tests rationality under the possibility of an asymmetric loss function the results indicate less evidence of asymmetry for a horizon of 1 month but considerable evidence of asymmetry for a horizon of 3 months however the shapes of the distributions formed by estimated asymmetry parameters of sub samples for each forecaster are symmetric regardless of the forecast horizons which implies that these forecasters do not herd or antiherd in fact the results of our empirical herding test show that forecasters neither herd nor antiherd which is in sharp contrast to recent findings on antiherding for foreign exchange rates in emerging market economies our findings provide consistent evidence for a recent suggestion that antiherding might result in the rejection of rationality even under asymmetric loss functions our findings also suggest that central bank transparency m

inflation and asset returns in a monetary economy postwar u s data are characterized by negative correlations between real equity returns and inflation and by positive correlations between real equity returns and money growth these patterns are closely matched quantitatively by an equilibrium monetary asset pricing model the model also implies negative correlations between expected asset returns and expected inflation and it predicts that the inflationasset return correlation will be more strongly negative when inflation is generated by fluctuations in real economic activity than when it is generated by monetary fluctuations the co movements of real asset returns inflation and money growth have been studied extensively over the past fifteen years table i displays some of the statistical properties of these series using quarterly u s data from 1959 to 1990 note first the significantly negative correlation between real equity returns and inflation note also the negative correlation between inflation and the ex post real return to nominally riskless bonds while this fact is not particularly surprising numerous studies conclude that the correlations between ex ante real asset returns and expected inflation are also negative 2 in contrast to these patterns the correlation between money growth and real equity returns is weakly positive in the data while the correlation between money growth and the real bond return is virtually zero initially these empirical patterns were viewed as anomalies negative correlations between inflation and ex post real stock returns contradict the traditional view that equities ought to act as an inflation hedge 3 negative correlations between expected inflation and ex ante real returns violate the

towards a sustainable electrification in ghana a review of renewable energy deployment policies abstract ghana has been facing perennial power rationing over the years due to fuel supply challenges the country s energy system is likely to suffer additional strain from rising energy demand fueled by population growth rapid urbanization and economic development fortunately there are enormous renewable energy resources which can provide sustainable electrification as backbone to socioeconomic development while curbing global warming ghana s energy strategy targets 100 access to electricity and 10 share of sustainable power in national generation mix by 2020 despite the existence of numerous policies and a renewable energy act current contribution of non conventional renewable energy to electricity generation is less than 1 the right mix of policies to address the unique domestic conditions and achieve its specific development goals remains insufficient this study reviews the regulatory framework financing incentives and other provisions of ghana s renewable energy act it critically examines the policy s strengths weaknesses opportunities and treats based on comparative analysis and lessons drawn from failed and successful implementation of similar policies around the world the study also assesses the impact of policy on project development it was found that the performance of ghana s renewable energy policy on grid connected electricity has been poor compared to its target the fundamental reasons for this unsatisfactory performance may be attributed to partial implementation of policies lack of market driven support schemes lack of pricing policy framework weak grid network limited access to funds and inconsistencies in renewable energy development strategies this study proposes the following countermeasures i ghana should comprehensively harmonize renewable energy regulatory and fiscal policies with domestic electricity pricing regime ii market driven support schemes should be prioritized for cost effectiveness and minimum governmental influence these reforms can help eliminate some of the major barriers to sustainable electrification in ghana while the lessons provide a learning curve for other african countries

a time series analysis of representative agent models of consumption andleisure choice under uncertainty this paper investigates empirically a model of aggregate consumption and leisure decisions in which utility from goods and leisure is nontime separable the nonseparability of preferences accommodates intertemporal substitution or complementarity of leisure and thereby affects the comovements in aggregate compensation and hours worked these cross relations are examined empirically using postwar monthly u s data on quantities real wages and the real return on the one month treasury bill the estimated values of the parameters governing preferences differ significantly from the values assumed in several studies of real business models several possible explanations of these discrepancies are discussed

habit formation in consumer preferences evidence from panel data this paper tests for the presence of habit formation using household data a simple model of habit formation implies a condition relating the strength of habits to the evolution of consumption over time when the condition is estimated with food consumption data from the panel study on income dynamics the results yield no evidence of habit formation at the annual frequency this finding is robust to a number of changes in the specification it also holds for several proxies for nondurables and services consumption created by combining psid variables with weights estimated from consumer expenditure survey data

renewable energy policies in promoting financing and investment among the east asia summit countries quantitative assessment and policy implications many countries have implemented various policies for renewable energy development ranging from setting power purchase agreements and the legislation of renewable energy requirements to providing incentives and imposing carbon taxes the evaluation of the effectiveness of such policies however is fragmented which raises a need for a comprehensive analysis this paper aims to assess whether and how policies promoting renewable energy investment have achieved the intended goals it employs five broadly defined criteria market uncertainty profitability technology and financial resources to build an index to assess respectively if such policies have helped create a market for renewable energy maximize potential profits reduce risks relating to the investment develop and adopt new technologies and improve the access to financial resources each criterion is reflected by three indicators values of each indicator are converted into ordinal values for analysis the index not only scans comprehensively all relevant renewable energy investment policies in the east asia summit countries but also provides systematic and quantitative measures to compare the effectiveness of policies in these countries with respect to the creation of market the degree of uncertainty the potential of profitability the development and adoption of technology and the accessibility of financial resources

interpreting the results of empirical analyses of intertemporal allocation an identification problem abstract empirical analyses of household behaviour often find that behaviour is intertemporally non additive in the sense that past state variables affect current behaviour this may be because preferences are nonadditive because of habits or satiation or because budgets are non additive for example because of human capital formation or imperfections in credit markets in this note i show that there is a fundamental identification problem in that we cannot infer from observed quantities and prices whether any nonadditivity in behaviour is coming from the budget constraint or the utility function

comment sequential moment restrictions in panel data 1992 comment sequential moment restrictions in panel data journal of business economic statistics vol 10 no 1 pp 20 26

business cycles with distorting taxes and disaggregated capital markets abstract this paper studies a neoclassical growth model to examine the linkages between distorting corporate and personal taxes and cyclical movements of aggregates such as investments in equipment and structures suppose tax variables vary stochastically and annually we solve quarterly individual and aggregate decision rules by recursive methods and quantify the dynamic impacts on aggregates from unit changes in tax structures and individual and joint tax specifications the findings suggest that corporate income tax is the major factor leading to substantial tax effects on business cycles moreover the impact of investment tax credit for equipment on disaggregated investments is equally significant

federal credit private credit and economic activity the federal open market committee has been monitoring total domestic nonfinancial debt since early 1983 the evidence reported in this paper shows that the federal and non federal private components of the debt have significantly different impacts on economic activity thus monitoring total debt rather than its major subcomponents implies that the federal open market committee is ignoring important information contained in a more disaggregated analysis copyright 1990 by ohio state university press

forecasting the impact of renewable energies in competition with non renewable sources abstract the diffusion dynamics of traditional and clean energy systems in the energy mix are studied in a competition modeling where their interacting life cycles are jointly described competition has only been considered recently since diffusion competition models are not easy to be implemented data are represented by yearly consumptions in mtoe of traditional sources coal oil gas and nuclear systems and a selection of renewable sources hydroelectric wind and solar power for the us europe china and india from 1965 to 2014 for each case we will investigate whether the diffusion level of traditional sources sustains or prevents the spread of renewables and vice versa for the us and europe we will take into account the link between the 2008 2009 financial crisis and the slowdown in consumptions as a matter of fact the energy sector is characterized by uncertainty due to the depletion of finite energy sources the technological and economical problems of renewables and the hypothesis of shale gas as a possible bridge to renewables that could delay the spread of latter ones in this scenario six year forecasts are provided until 2020

simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity i study a simple widely applicable approach to handling the initial conditions problem in dynamic nonlinear unobserved effects models rather than attempting to obtain the joint distribution of all outcomes of the endogenous variables i propose finding the distribution conditional on the initial value and the observed history of strictly exogenous explanatory variables the approach is flexible and results in simple estimation strategies for at least three leading dynamic nonlinear models probit tobit and poisson regression i treat the general problem of estimating average partial effects and show that simple estimators exist for important special cases copyright 2005 john wiley sons ltd

co determination and innovation this paper examines the effect of the german co determination law of 1976 mitbestg on the innovative activity of german firms co determination applies to firms with 2 000 employees or more data from 1971 1976 and 1981 1990 on 148 firms are used to compare the number of patents granted to co determined firms before and after the introduction of the law several control variables are applied and in particular in order to avoid a possible bias from specific effects of firm size we compare the co determined firms with others before and after 1976 the results do not support the view that co determination slows down technological progress and reduces innovativity

determinants of international trade flows the case of developing countries abstract the question of magnitude and the time path of the trade flows to changes in the exchange rates and to changes in the price level is of emitent practical importance to assess the above proposition a distributed lag structure is imposed on the relative prices and on the effective exchange rate as the determinants of trade flows then import and export demand functions are estimated for a sample of developing countries using the almon procedure the empirical findings appeared to sustain orcutt s early conjecture that trade flows adjust differently to different price stimuli more precisely it was found that imports and exports reactions were quicker and the total response time was shorter when an exchange rate rather than relative prices caused a change in international prices

kalman filter approach to estimate the demand for international reserves a few studies have provided empirical support for the fact that the demand for international reserves experienced structural instability in 1973 and 1979 due to a change in exchange rate system and oil price shocks thus under the current managed float due to exchange rate and oil price fluctuations coefficient estimates could be time dependent after showing that indeed estimated coefficients are time dependent the kalman filter estimation method is employed and the reserve demand function for 19 industrial countries estimated the kalman filter approach incorporates the time varying properties of coefficients estimates

estimation of a censored dynamic panel data model panel data models have a long history in econometrics and have become increasingly popular in empirical economics over the past two decades panel data expand our opportunities to study more complex economic relationships by for example allowing for individual heterogeneity and dynamic feedback these goals are often achieved by including in the model individual specific effects and lagged dependent variables these two features of the dynamic panel data model however often create difficulties in estimation although much progress has been made in the linear panel data model see among others hsiao 1986 baltagi 1995 and arellano and honore 2001 for review our knowledge of general nonlinear dynamic panel data models is very limited in most nonlinear models strict exogeneity of the explanatory variables is still the key assumption the main difficulty is that with nonlinearity it is not obvious how to difference away the individual specific effects and how to use instrumental variable type techniques 2 despite these difficulties some developments have been made on estimating certain nonlinear dynamic models using the fixed effects approach for example the censored regression models honore 1993 honore and hu 2001 the sample selection models kyriazidou 2001 the discrete choice models honor6 and kyriazidou 2000 and the models with multiplicative individual effects chamberlain 1992 wooldridge 1997

effects of exchange rate flexibility on the demand for international reserves abstract we incorporate a measure of exchange rate flexibility into the standard reserve demand equation and present empirical results for the 1976 1985 period which are consistent with the work of officer 1976 and frenkel and jovanovic 1981 indicating the existence of economies of scale and the demand for reserves

analysis of the policy effects of downstream feed in tariff on china s solar photovoltaic industry abstract the chinese government initiated the feed in tariff fit policy for downstream power generation in august 2013 the effectiveness of the downstream fit policy has attracted the attention of academia and government using the quarterly data of listed solar pv companies between 2009 and 2015 this paper provides an empirical analysis regarding the effects of the downstream fit policy we find that 1 the fit policy has significantly enhanced the inventory turnover of listed pv firms and improved their profitability 2 the fit policy has significant effects on the inventory turnover of midstream companies and mixed industry chain companies mainly engaged in downstream operations 3 fit policy is more favorable towards increasing the inventory turnover of private enterprises our results indicate that the fit policy can have substantial effects on the sustainable development of china s solar photovoltaic industry

estimation of fractional dependent variables in dynamic panel data models with an application to firm dividend policy fractional dependent variables and models with state dependence arise in many economic applications however estimating models with fractional dependent variables is complicated by the presence of two corner solution outcomes when coupled with a dynamic panel data setting estimating quantities of interest can be quite complex or computationally difficult this article demonstrates a method for estimating fractional response variables which is easy to implement and presents an application of the technique to the determination of firm dividend policy the estimation demonstrates that neglecting dynamics unobserved heterogeneity or the doubly censored nature of the dependent variable can generate misleading conclusions

saving growth and investment a macroeconomic analysis using a panel of countries this paper provides a descriptive analysis of the long and short run correlations among saving investment and growth rates for 123 countries over the period 1961 94 three results are robust across data sets and estimation methods i lagges saving rates are positively related to investment rates ii investment rates granger cause growth rates with a negative sign iii growth rates granger cause investment with a positive sign

children as income producing assets the case of teen illegitimacy and government transfers this paper develops a classical model of the teen fertility decision in the presence of public income transfers the theoretical model predicts that welfare payments will encourage fertility holding constant other economic opportunities and that better economic opportunities will discourage fertility considering the possible simultaneity of illegitimacy rates and benefit levels due to the collective choice process the authors confirm the theoretical models predictions with state level data from 1980 through 1990 the authors find that including fixed effects in the regression to control for unobserved differences between states does not sufficiently control for endogeneity after controlling for endogeneity real welfare benefits are strongly and robustly related to teen illegitimacy the point estimates of the elasticity with respect to changes in the illegitimacy rate are around 1 3 for white teens and 2 1 for black teens real wages for women with a high school education or less are negatively related to teen illegitimacy for white teens with an elasticity of around 0 4 finally male wages appear to have little effect on the illegitimacy rate for white teens but appear negatively correlated with the illegitimacy rate for black teens in some model specifications authors

wind turbine manufacturing in china a review abstract domestic wind turbine manufacturing sector in china has experienced development stages starting from scratch to mass production during the 11th fyp period 2006 2010 the main goal of wind power policy in china is to promote the commercialization of wind power by large scale deployment of wind farms this goal has been realized to a great extent and now the cost of wind power generation is nearly comparable to coal fired power generation in china the industry policy which devotes to mass production of domestic wind turbines is also largely successful the purpose of the paper is to provide an overview on wind turbine manufacturing sector in china the policy evolution in different stages achievements and challenges pertinent to the sector are addressed in the paper key findings are that the misleading industry policy which provides strong incentive to blind entrance and competition for scale and price and restrains innovation as well is the key obstacle for the sustainable development of the sector deficient technology standard and qualification system and the misplaced franchise bidding system also indulge vicious competition and oversupply creating a level playground for all turbine supplies providing strong incentive to innovative manufacturers establishing thorough and practicable standard and qualification system and fine tuning the directive of the franchise bidding system towards technology and service are the primary policy implications proposed by our study

optimal instruments in time series a survey abstract this article surveys estimation in stationary time series models using the approach of optimal instrumentation we review tools that allow construction and implementation of optimal instrumental variables estimators in various circumstances in single and multiperiod models in the absence and presence of conditional heteroskedasticity by considering linear and non linear instruments we also discuss issues adjacent to the theme of optimal instruments the article is directed primarily towards practitioners but econometric theorists and teachers of graduate econometrics may also find it useful

technology choice for reducing nox emissions an empirical study of chinese power plants abstract this study investigates the choices of denitration technology in the chinese thermal power sector using a multinomial logit model of the choices among 1135 boilers in thermal power plants operating in china in 2013 we analyze how the choices were influenced by government policies the stringency of national standards and subsidies for using specific technology the results are as follows first china s 12th five year plan might make it more attractive for plants to choose the cheapest denitration technology among the three options examined in this study second technology choices differed significantly by region before the 12th five year plan period these differences have disappeared perhaps due to the economic development across all regions of china third electricity price subsidies offered to plants that use denitration equipment might affect their technology choice these results suggests that plants might choose the cheapest technology available in order to lower investment costs

entry and patenting in the software industry to what extent are firms kept out of a market by patents covering related technologies do patents held by potential entrants make it easier to enter markets we estimate the empirical relationship between market entry and patents for 27 narrowly defined categories of software products during the period 1990 2004 controlling for demand market structure average patent quality and other factors we find that a 10 increase in the number of patents relevant to market reduces the rate of entry by 3 8 and this relationship intensified following expansions in the patentability of software in the mid 1990s however potential entrants with patent applications relevant to a market are more likely to enter it finally patents appear to substitute for complementary assets in the entry process because patents have both greater entry deterring and entry promoting effects for firms without prior experience in other markets this paper was accepted by bruno cassiman business strategy

asymmetric size dependent effects of the output gap on inflation us evidence from the last half a century this article examines asymmetric size and sign dependent effects of the output gap on the us quarterly inflation rate using data from the last half a century 1959q2 2013q1 consistent with previous studies it is found that the consumer price index is cointegrated with the unit labour cost and the price of oil a short run dynamic model is then estimated in which variations in the output gap are divided into three groups large positive large negative and small medium positive negative the results provide convincing evidence that only sufficiently large positive or negative variations of the output gap can significantly influence inflation put otherwise relatively small to medium changes in the output gap exert no significant impact on inflation and if not separated they can somewhat obscure the significant effects associated with large variations of the output gap this study can lead to greater consensus on the inflation output gap nexus the findings remain robust despite the use of differen

are wages habit forming evidence from micro data although utility functions play a central role in economics the axiom that utility depends only on the absolute levels of its arguments is rarely tested this paper uses panel data on 2000 british employees who remain with the same employer and who are not promoted from one wave to the next it is shown that one important measure of well being overall job satisfaction is strongly positively correlated with the change in the worker s pay between waves but is unrelated to the current level of pay empirical tests suggest that a reference dependent satisfaction function where individual well being depends on current pay relative to past pay is more consistent with these regression results than are productivity or agency explanations of increasing wage profiles some evidence is presented of greater job satisfaction effects of pay rises for lower paid less well educated and younger workers these results provide some micro evidence consistent with the theory widespread in social science of habituation individuals may become used to any given level of consumption or income as such they tie in with the finding that a country s well being as measured by the average happiness of its citizens is only weakly correlated with its per capita gnp

seniority and efficiency the role of seniority in efficient compensation and employment arrangements between a firm and its labor pool is examined seniority is treated as an endogenous factor in a dynamic model with uncertainty nonseparability over time in preferences and production emerges as a pivotal aspect of seniority provisions in efficient allocations the analysis focuses on two dynamic factors that have been emphasized in the literature nonseparable worker preferences in leisure and a learning by doing process of human capital accumulation copyright 1992 by the editors of the scandinavian journal of economics

long term care utility and late in life saving older wealth holders spend down assets much more slowly than predicted by classic life cycle models this paper introduces health dependent utility into a model with incomplete markets in which pre

low or no subsidy proposing a regional power grid based wind power feed in tariff benchmark price mechanism in china abstract the chinese government plans to adopt a low or no subsidy policy mechanism on renewable energy power development in the future to achieve a balance between reducing financial burden on the government and ensuring profitability of investors as well as to account for the regional differences in china a novel regional wind power grid feed in tariff benchmark price mechanism by net present value npv method and real option ro method is proposed in this paper the results voice support on the appropriateness of gradually decreasing the wind feed in tariff fit benchmark price to as low as the coal fired fit the proposed fit price level is presented as a price range on the basis of a guaranteed internal rate of return irr falls in between 8 to 15 for wind power investors the results indicate that the current fit price should be readjusted and redistributed although the fit price in central and south china grids is recommended to be relatively high the npv of wind farm project value in six regional grids are at the same level

the impact of government subsidies and enterprises r d investment a panel data study from renewable energy in china in this research we aim to understand the influence of government subsidies on enterprises research and development r d investment behavior particularly in china s renewable energy sector we are also interested in examining how the attributes of enterprise ownership act as a moderating variable for the relationship between government subsidies and r d investment behavior three classical panel data analysis models including the pooled ordinary least squares ols model the fixed effect model and the random effect model are employed we find that government subsidies have a significant crowding out influence on enterprises r d investment behavior and that the influence is further moderated by the attributes of enterprise ownership moreover a panel threshold regression model is used to demonstrate how the influence of government subsidies on enterprises r d investment behavior will change when government subsidies increase two thresholds 0 6 and 10 1 are identified we recommend that relevant government departments should motivate enterprise r d investment behavioral intention by increasing subsidies within a certain range different attributes of enterprise ownership should also be considered as part of policy reform and re structuring relating to government subsidies

the square root law uncertainty and international reserves under alternative regimes canadian experience 1950 1976 abstract a transactions precautionary model of demand for international reserves is developed and tested against canadian data the results indicate that i the demand for reserves is characterized by economies of scale with respect to the volume of transactions that are invariant to the exchange rate regime but ii structural change took the form of a relatively larger responsiveness of reserves holdings under fixed rates to a measure of permanent variability in transactions

the sensitivity of an empirical model of married women s hours of work to economic and statistical assumptions this study undertakes a systematic analysis of several theoretic and statistical assumption s used in many empirical models of female labor supply using a singl e data set psid 1975 labor supply data the author is able to replic ate most of the range of estimated income and substitution effects fo und in previous studies in this field he undertakes extensive specif ication tests and finds that most of this range should be rejected du e to statistical and model misspecifications the two most important assumptions appear to be the tobit assumption used to control for sel f selection into the labor force and exogeneity assumptions on the wi fe s wage rate and her labor market experience copyright 1987 by the econometric society

intertemporal preferences and labor supply in this paper the authors examine whether nonseparable preference structures ar e important in characterizing life cycle labor supply using longitud inal data on prime age males from the panel study of income dynamics they estimate a model of life cycle leisure and consumption under un certainty in which intertemporal preferences are allowed to be nonsep arable in leisure the model tests several alternative specifications considered in the literature they investigate the robustness of the ir findings to certain forms of population heterogeneity and types of model misspecification across alternative specifications the autho rs find that the standard assumption of intertemporally separable pre ferences for leisure is not consistent with the data copyright 1988 by the econometric society

semiparametric bayesian inference for dynamic tobit panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity summary this paper develops semiparametric bayesian methods for inference of dynamic tobit panel data models our approach requires that the conditional mean dependence of the unobserved heterogeneity on the initial conditions and the strictly exogenous variables be specified important quantities of economic interest such as the average partial effect and average transition probabilities can be readily obtained as a by product of the markov chain monte carlo run we apply our method to study female labor supply using a panel data set from the national longitudinal survey of youth 1979 copyright 2008 john wiley sons ltd

the effects of health insurance and self insurance on retirement behavior this paper provides an empirical analysis of the effects of employer provided health insurance medicare and social security on retirement behavior using data from the health and retirement study we estimate a dynamic programming model of retirement that accounts for both saving and uncertain medical expenses our results suggest that medicare is important for understanding retirement behavior and that uncertainty and saving are both important for understanding the labor supply responses to medicare half the value placed by a typical worker on his employer provided health insurance is the value of reduced medical expense risk raising the medicare eligibility age from 65 to 67 leads individuals to work an additional 0 074 years over ages 60 69 in comparison eliminating 2 years worth of social security benefits increases years of work by 0 076 years

intertemporal substitution in labor supply evidence from micro data the sensitivity of the supply of labor to intertemporal variation in the wage is an important issue in macroeconomics the analysis of social security and pensions and the study of life cycle patterns of work this paper explores two approaches to the measurement of intertemporal substitution that have appeared in the literature the first approach is to use consumption to control for wealth and unobserved expectations about future wages in the labor supply equation the second approach is to estimate a first difference equation for hours in which labor supply from the previous period serves as a control for wealth and wage expectations the results indicate that intertemporal substitution elasticity for married men is positive but small

dynamic hours of work functions for husbands wives and single females hours of work equations are derived from the constrained maximization of a utility function that is not separable over time and that varies with a household s demographic structure these equations are fitted to observations on wage rates nonlabor income and other variables for husbands wives and unmarried women the dependence of each household s current work and consumption behavior upon its work and consumption behavior in the past is examined closely and different interpretations of the relationship are confronted with the data

correlated jumps in crude oil and gasoline during the gulf war this article employs a bivariate poisson jump model to investigate the relationship between the volatility of crude oil and gasoline especially during the period of the gulf war we find that greater jumps occurring in crude oil returns will appear in gasoline returns at the same time but the magnitude of the co movements in volatility falls the covariance is relatively smaller in the second gulf war vs the first conflict the volatility of crude oil is of significantly high levels during periods of the war yet the volatility of gasoline is not as sensitive as crude oil particularly in the second conflict furthermore the jump that occurred by the war did not lead both spot prices to a high persistent level for a long period which fits the feature of the jump models all these findings are important to market traders and hedging strategies

government subsidies for the chinese photovoltaic industry abstract since 2009 the subsidy for large scale photovoltaic pv power plants had been launched which effectively promoted the development of pv industry at the same time negative effects like serious oversupply of pv industry were brought about by these large scale governmental subsidies although governmental subsidy strongly supports the china pv companies few of them have competitiveness in the global market this dramatically conflictive phenomenon attracted many researchers attentions in recent years however investigations on the best entry and exit occasions of governmental subsidies for the pv industry were rarely reported in previous studies therefore based on the existing division method of enterprise development model classification of 72 pv companies listed in shanghai and shenzhen stock exchanges in china was firstly carried out in this paper this is followed by studying the influence of governmental subsidies on the indexes of different stages of enterprise development finally a conclusion was drawn that the governmental subsidies at early exploratory stage can maximize the social and economic effects suggesting the best entry occasion and subsidies at intermediate stage and mature stage have little effects on its turnover and aggravate the overcapacity of pv supply suggesting a suitable exit occasion

decomposition analysis of patenting in renewable energy technologies from an extended lmdi approach perspective based on three five year plan periods in china abstract renewable energy technological innovation is greatly influenced by renewable energy markets and policies in this regard the paper decomposes nine influencing factors of patents of a specific renewable energy technology using the extended logarithmic mean divisia index lmdi method from 2001 to 2015 the differences in a specific renewable energy technological innovation and development during the three five year plan periods is prioritized at the national level the contribution of the increase in patents of renewable energy technologies mainly lies in the patents of solar energy technology and wind energy technology but during the 12th five year plan period the increments of their patent counts significantly decline due to priority given to the development of innovation in a specific renewable energy technology the improvement in the efficiency of r d spending the increases in the share of r d spending and the share of renewable energy low carbon economy concept advocacy and carbon scale expansion the patent counts of a specific renewable energy technology will increase additionally the factors affecting innovation in a specific renewable energy technology at the different economic development levels as well as different resource distribution levels are investigated

medicaid insurance in old age the old age provisions of the medicaid program were designed to insure retirees against medical expenses we estimate a structural model of savings and medical spending and use it to compute the distribution of lifetime medicaid transfers and medicaid valuations across currently single retirees compensating variation calculations indicate that current retirees value medicaid insurance at more than its actuarial cost but that most would value an expansion of the current medicaid program at less than its cost these findings suggest that for current single retirees the medicaid program may be of the approximately right size

overall review of renewable energy subsidy policies in china contradictions of intentions and effects abstract china is vast abundant and particularly plentiful in energy sources due to which it has obtained remarkable achievements on economy however its energy structure is too simple to support the sustainable development of economy as coal still contributes to the majority of energy consumption in china as a consequence renewable energy law was enacted in 2005 and chinese government announced a series of policies to boom renewable energy industry subsidy policy is one of the major forms of these policies this paper aims to present these subsidy policies and to analyze their effects according to relative data in energy industry 2005 2013 to find out the deficiencies and enlighten possible policy improvements the original intentions and abstracts of 5 different levels of subsidy related policies are summarized and the effects in reality are attentively analyzed it can be concluded that subsidy policies have different short term effect on different renewable energies and they all show some negative effect to a certain extent 6 core problems are summarized in this paper and remedy strategies are suggested

did oil prices trigger an innovation burst in biofuels abstract this paper documents an innovation burst in biofuels in the second half of the years 2000s and empirically confronts it to the massive variations of oil prices between 1985 and 2009 our results show that increases in oil prices greatly spurred innovation in biofuels the elasticity of the number of patent families in biofuels with respect to oil prices is greater than 1 and holds both at the country and at the firm level we find that the effect cannot be caused by the contagion of oil prices to cereal prices an important input for biofuels similarly we find that the effect is very specific no such effect is found substituting oil prices with electricity prices or substituting biofuel patents with biotechnology or environment related patents delving into applicants sectors suggests that specialized biofuel firms were less responsive to oil price variations than diversified firms

estimating life cycle labor supply tax effects we present an econometrically tractable life cycle labor supply model for panel data including intertemporally progressive taxes on uncertai wage and nonwge incomes our two stage fixedeffects generalized method of moments approach first extimates intretemporal and then intertemporal preferences specification testing domonstrates the value of incorporating joint progressive taxation of labor and nonlabor incomes results for prime age men emphasize the roles played by hourly wage endogeneity worker specific effects the measure of the rate of pay and intemporal budget constaint nonseparability simulations indicate that recent tax reform while not self financing stimulated made labor supplied by about 3 percent and reduced deadweight loss about 16 percent

instrumental variables procedures for estimating linear rational expectations models abstract this paper illustrates how to use instrumental variables procedures to estimate the parameters of a linear rational expectations model these procedures are appropriate when disturbances are serially correlated and the instrumental variables are not exogenous we compare our procedures to some alternative estimators that estimate free parameters from restrictions implied by the euler equations the procedures are applicable to a variety of linear rational expectations models several examples of which we cite

household choices in equilibrium this paper is an empirical investigation of equilibrium restrictions on household consumption and male labor supply it exploits a simple factor structure rationalized by two assumptions that household allocations are pareto optimal and that the labor market is competitive the paper estimates household preferences and tests how well this parsimonious factor structure represents panel data on married couples and time series data on asset returns most of the estimates are roughly comparable to those found in previous work no evidence against the simple factor representation is found and the intertemporal capital asset pricing model is not rejected copyright 1990 by the econometric society

gmm estimation of a money in the utility function model the implications of functional forms this paper studies consumer demand for real balances by allowing money to enter directly into an aggregate utility function as an asset that provides liquidity services the essay extends existing literature by investigating a money in the utility function model under a variety of specifications of the representative agent s objective function the empirical analysis employs the generalized method of moments technique to estimate the coefficients of the euler equations derived from the structural model the parameter estimates are compared across specifications of the utility function and across data sets the results provide some support for the view that the liquidity services provided by real balances contribute to utility

evaluating japanese corporate executives forecasts under an asymmetric loss function abstract we examine asymmetry in the loss function of japanese corporate executives in their output growth forecasts and test for rationality of the forecasts under the assumption of a possibly asymmetric loss function we find evidence of asymmetry and support for rationality under an asymmetric loss function

does self fulfilment of the inflation expectation exist abstractthis study examines the causal relationship between the actual and expected inflation in the u s using the bootstrap granger full sample causality test and sub sample rolling window estimation test to illustrate the self fulfilment of inflation expectations the full sample result indicates that there is a bidirectional causality between the actual and expected inflation showing the possibility of self fulfilment of inflation expectations which illustrates that inflation is driven by inflation expectation however considering structural changes in two series we find that the short run causal nexus between the actual and expected inflation using full sample data are fraudulent by adopting a time varying rolling window approach to revisiting the dynamic causal relationships this article identifies that the actual inflation has both positive and negative impacts on the expected inflation in distinct sub periods nevertheless inflation expectation exerts only negative effects on the actual inf

measuring consumer switching costs in the television industry in this article i develop and estimate a model of dynamic consumer behavior with switching costs in the market for paid television services i estimate the parameters of the structural model using data on cable and satellite systems across local us television markets over the period 1992 2006 the results suggest switching costs range from 159 to 242 for cable and from 212 to 276 for satellite providers in 1997 dollars using a simple dynamic model of cable providers i demonstrate that switching costs of these magnitudes can significantly affect the firms optimal strategies

generalized method of moments and macroeconomics we consider the contribution to the analysis of economic time series of the generalized method of moments estimator introduced by hansen we outline the theoretical contribution conduct a small scale literature survey and discuss some ongoing theoretical research

moment conditions for fixed effects count data models with endogenous regressors abstract this note shows that moment conditions originally proposed by wooldridge 1991 wooldridge j m 1991 multiplicative panel data models without the strict exogeneity assumption working paper 574 mit department of economics can be used for the consistent estimation of parameters in fixed effects count data models with endogenous regressors

on the construction of marginal federal personal and social security tax rates in the u s abstract in this article i correct and extend my earlier series on marginal federal personal income tax rates i also construct a measure of the marginal social security tax rate and add this to the income tax rate to obtain a measure of the effective marginal tax rate on income due to federal taxes finally i compare my series on marginal income tax rates and its method of construction with those of barro and sahasakul

what does the term structure tell us about future inflation abstract this empirical analysis indicates that for maturities of six months or less the term structure of nominal interest rates provides almost no information about the future path of inflation but does provide information about the term structure of real interest rates however as maturities lengthen to nine and twelve months the nominal term structure begins to contain information about future inflation but ceases to provide information about the real term structure these results are explained by differences in the relative variability of expected future inflation changes and real term structure slopes at different points in the term structure

free trade agreements and foreign direct investment the role of endogeneity and dynamics this article studies the impact of free trade agreements fta on outbound foreign direct investment fdi from one perspective fta may promote fdi since fta aim to promote economic activity between countries however lower trade barriers may lower the incentive of firms to conduct fdi therefore the net impact is an empirical question using a panel of countries for the years 1990 2006 this article effectively controls for participation in an fta when analyzing the impact on outbound fdi the lengthy time series also allows us to examine effectively the dynamic nature of the relationship failing to account for endogeneity and dynamics would likely generate inaccurate conclusions regarding the impact of fta on outbound fdi our analysis finds that outbound fdi is either unrelated to participation in an fta or is negatively affected

is biomass power a good choice for governments in china abstract to fulfill the target of emissions reduction the chinese government has made many efforts to develop renewable energy biomass power can provide stable power supply avoid wasting straw resources and protect rural environment at the same time however the development of renewable power requires subsidies from the government but increased subsidies placed heavy burden on the governments whereas these governments want to develop renewable energy with minimum costs this paper attempts to answer the question that whether the development of biomass power is a good choice for local governments in china for this purpose the goal of emissions reduction and subsidies of renewable energy powers were discussed the main conclusion is that although the subsidies for biomass power were slightly higher than those for wind power biomass power is a good choice for governments considering other benefits especially for regions with rich agricultural and forest residues in the future regional and local conditions should be considered in the planning of biomass power development

a framework for estimating dynamic unobserved effects panel data models with possible feedback to future explanatory variables abstract i show how to construct the likelihood function for the conditional maximum likelihood estimator in dynamic unobserved effects models where not all conditioning variables are strictly exogenous the method for handling the initial conditions problem appears to be novel and offers a flexible relatively simple alternative to existing methods

measuring the average marginal tax rate from the individual income tax the economic effects of taxation depend on the configuration of marginal tax rates we consider here the appropriate measure of a marginal tax rate for the federal individual income tax which has a graduated rate structure and allows for numerous legal and illegal deductions from total income our conclusion is that the explicit marginal rate from the tax schedule is the right concept for many purposes hence we construct approximately weighted averages of these marginal tax rates for 1916 80 when weighted by adjusted gross income the arithmetic average of marginal tax rates is 5 in 1920 2 in 1930 6 in 1940 20 in 1950 23 in 1960 24 in 1970 and 30 in 1980 we also discuss the dispersion of marginal tax rates as well as the behavior of average tax rates and deductions from taxable income one noteworthy result concerns the fraction of adjusted gross income that accrues to families that face a marginal tax rate of at least 35 this fraction quadruples from 1964 to 1980 this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

estimating the innovation function from patent numbers gmm on count panel data the purpose of this paper is to estimate the patent equation an empirical counterpart to the knowledge production function innovation output is measured through the number of european patent applications and the input by research capital in a panel of french manufacturing firms estimating the innovation function raises specific issues related to count data using the framework of models with multiplicative errors we explore and test for various specifications correlated fixed effects serial correlations and weak exogeneity we also present a first extension to lagged dependent variables 1997 john wiley sons ltd

the permanent income hypothesis and consumption durability analysis based on japanese panel data the permanent income hypothesis with durability of commodities is tested on a panel of about 2 000 japanese households for several commodity groups under static expectations about real interest rates and for some class of utility functions consumption which is a distributed lag function of current and past expenditure follows a martingale main empirical results are i the durability of commodities usually classified as services is substantial ii the hypothesis applies to about 85 percent of the population consisting of wage earners and iii income changes explain only a small fraction of the movements in expenditure

cost structure customer profitability and retention implications of self service distribution channels evidence from customer behavior in an online banking channel this paper uses the context of online banking to investigate the consequences of using self service distribution channels to alter customer interactions with the firm using a sample of retail banking customers observed over a 30 month period at a large u s bank we test whether changes in service consumption cost to serve and customer profitability are associated with the adoption of online banking we find that customer adoption of online banking is associated with 1 substitution primarily from incrementally more costly self service delivery channels automated teller machine and voice response unit 2 augmentation of service consumption in more costly service delivery channels branch and call center 3 a substantial increase in total transaction volume 4 an increase in estimated average cost to serve resulting from the combination of points 1 3 and 5 a reduction in short term customer profitability however we find that use of the online banking channel is associated with higher customer retention rates over one two and three year horizons the documented relationship between the use of online banking and customer retention remains positive even after controlling for self selection into the online channel we also find evidence that future market shares for our sample firm are systematically higher in markets with high contemporaneous utilization rates for the online banking channel this finding holds even after controlling for contemporaneous market share suggesting it is not simply the result of increased market power leading to the acquisition of online banking customers