variations in trading volume return volatility and trading costs evidence on recent price formation models patterns in stock market trading volume trading costs and return volatility are examined using new york stock exchange data from 1988 intraday test results indicate that for actively traded firms trading volume adverse selection costs and return volatility are higher in the first half hour of the day this evidence is inconsistent with the admati and pfleiderer 1988 model which predicts that trading costs are low when volume and return volatility are high interday test results show that for actively traded firms trading volume is low and adverse selection costs are high on monday which is consistent with the predictions of the foster and viswanathan 1990 model academics investors and regulators alike are now intensively focused upon understanding the volatility of asset returns and its relation to trading volume this interest was undoubtedly piqued by the market break of october 1987 a time during which volatility and trading volume reached unprecedented levels but even beforehand researchers observed regular differences in the return process for various hours of the day and days of the week research concerning temporal patterns in stock market volatility and volume falls in two groups studies that document observed patterns and studies that develop models to predict patterns among the studies in the first group are oldfield and rogalski 1980 french and roll 1986 stoll and whaley 1990 harris 1986 and wood mcinish and ord 1985 who report evidence on seasonalities in daily and weekly return variances among the regularities that have been documented using interday data is that volatility is higher when the market is open than when it is closed oldfield and rogalski 1980 french and roll 1986 and stoll and whaley 1990 for example point out significant differences in return volatility between trading

sons daughters and parental behaviour the prevalence of son preference and its implications for family behaviour in developing countries have received a great deal of scholarly attention but child gender bias is believed to be empirically unimportant in wealthy non traditional societies studies by sociologists and psychologists during the past 30 years however have documented consistent discrepancies between the behaviour of parents of sons and parents of daughters boys tend to increase marital stability and marital satisfaction relative to girls and fathers spend more time with and are more involved with sons than daughters in recent years economists have begun to contribute to the child gender literature re examining the effects of sons and daughters on family structure and parental involvement with larger samples and greater concern for possible sources of selection bias other economic outcomes such as market work and earnings have also been studied and some investigators have exploited the randomness of child gender as a source of exogenous variation in parental behaviour in general recent results suggest that child gender does affect family stability and the time allocation of parents but it is not clear whether these responses reflect parental preferences for boys rather than girls or differences in the constraints parents face copyright 2005 oxford university press

fiscal structures and economic growth international evidence i introduction a large and growing body of literature searches for the determinants of economic growth employing cross country regression analysis e g kormendi and meguire 1985 grier and tullock 1989 barro 1990 1991 1992 romer 1989 1990 levine 1991 and levine and renelt 1992 1 the cross country regression approach implicitly assumes that the growth process possesses similar structural properties across the countries in the sample structural differences be they political economic social or other between countries therefore do not condition the growth process or if they do then the effects are randomly distributed with zero mean if structural differences between countries do matter significantly and non randomly in the growth process then the existing cross country research is potentially flawed attempts are sometimes made to control for such differences by including dummy variables for different regions of the world e g dummy variables for african latin american and other groups of countries within the literature on the determinants of economic growth some papers e g landau 1983 1985 1986 kormendi and meguire 1985 ram 1986 koester and kormendi 1989 barth keleher and russek 1990 easterly and rebelo 1993 and fischer 1993 consider the effects if any of government expenditure and revenue on economic growth overall the findings of these studies paint a mixed picture the relationship between growth and government is sometimes significant and positive sometimes significant and negative and sometimes not significant although these studies consider many different fiscal variables they do not as a rule examine the effects of these fiscal variables in a systematic way that controls for the mode of financing they generally overlook for example how an increase in government consumption expenditure is financed is it with higher taxes and which taxes or is it with lower spending and which spending finally is it with a larger deficit controlling for these factors may lead to different findings about the effect of an increase in government consumption expenditure on economic growth borrowing from some work on the effect of fiscal structure on national economic growth within the united states in helms 1985 mofidi and stone 1990 and miller and russek 1993 we introduce the government budget constraint into the regression equations that examine the determinants of economic growth as a result we directly address the three financing questions raised in the previous paragraph in this framework we consider the growth process using pooled times series cross section data and comparing the results from fixed and random effects econometric techniques 2 these techniques attempt to accommodate structural differences between countries and across time we also compare the performance of the more standard ordinary least squares regression approach with that of the fixed and random effect models ii an overview of international fiscal structures before presenting our model and statistical findings a brief overview of the growth and fiscal characteristics of the countries in our sample provides some additional information for those not familiar with the data which otherwise would not be revealed by our analysis 3 this information can contribute in a limited way to the debate about the effects of government on economic growth although it is not a substitute for modeling the growth process for the sample as a whole the growth rate of real per capita gross domestic product gdp averaged 1 35 per year during 1975 to 1984 with a coefficient of variation of 3 52 by comparison the average growth rate in the united states was 1 45 the five fastest growth countries were botswana 6 72 indonesia 4 19 korea 6 32 sri lanka 3 20 and thailand 4 31 the five slowest growth countries were el salvador 1

banking development socioeconomic structure and income inequality abstract using rich unique data from the italian local credit markets provinces this paper investigates the impact of local banking development on income inequality and the role of the socioeconomic structure in this link exploiting the italian historical banking regulation to instrument for the local presence of bank branches we find that local banking development mitigates income inequality however the finance inequality nexus manifests itself only in relatively advanced areas when we study the structural channels of influence we uncover evidence that banking development can reduce inequality by affecting geographical mobility and urbanization while it has modest effects through the development of material infrastructures and human capital

what type of finance matters for growth bayesian model averaging evidence this paper examines the effect of finance on long term economic growth using bayesian model averaging to address model uncertainty in cross country growth regressions the literature largely focuses on financial indicators that assess the financial depth of banks and stock markets these indicators are examined jointly with newly developed indicators that assess the stability and efficiency of financial markets once the finance growth regressions are subjected to model uncertainty the results suggest that commonly used indicators of financial development are not robustly related to long term growth however the findings from the global sample indicate that one newly developed indicator the efficiency of financial intermediaries is robustly related to long term growth

public expenditures and growth the article explores the effects of public expenditures on growth among 73 countries over the 1970 89 period while much of the literature attributes weak growth to public investment and social expenditures which inhibit growth through crowding out and rent seeking the article highlights the contributions that public investment and social expenditures may make to growth the article s econometric analysis suggests that crowding out and rent seeking concerns may have been overstated in the literature

the financial development and growth nexus a meta analysis this is the accepted manuscript the final version is available from wiley at http onlinelibrary wiley com doi 10 1111 joes 12086 abstract

financial development and economic growth a meta analysis we analyze 1334 estimates from 67 studies that examine the effect of financial development on economic growth taken together the studies imply a positive and statistically significant effect but the individual estimates vary widely we find that both research design and heterogeneity in the underlying effect play a role in explaining the differences in results studies that do not address endogeneity tend to overstate the effect of finance on growth while the effect seems to be weaker in less developed countries the effect decreases worldwide after the 1980s our results also suggest that stock markets support faster economic growth than other financial intermediaries

private sector shrinkage and the growth of industrialized economies reply further tests and thoughts on the oecd data lead me to conclude that if anything my 1986 paper underestimated the magnitude of the inverse relation between economic growth and government size if one takes the nominal based measure of government scale as advised by saunders the significance levels coefficient magnitudes and goodness of fits improve over what i found with my initial investigation i would suggest that saunders reconsider his reluctance to believe that the size of the public sector is unrelated to economic growth in oecd countries over this time period

openness external risk and volatility implications for the compensation hypothesis a central assumption in the globalization literature is that economic openness generates economic insecurity and volatility based on this assumption schol ars of international political economy have proposed the compensation hypothesis which claims that globalization bolsters rather than undermines the welfare state by increasing public demand for social protection against externally generated eco nomic instability the openness volatility link is dubious however on both theoret ical and empirical grounds in this study i revisit the volatility assumption focusing on a crucial difference between openness and external risk in their effect on volatil ity my statistical analysis of a panel data set from 175 countries 1950 2002 finds a consistent effect of external risk on volatility of the major economic aggregates but a largely insignificant effect of openness these findings suggest that economic volatility may be a mistaken link in explaining the openness spending nexus calling for further research on the causal mechanisms linking the two the general growth of government in the post world war ii era is one of the most important empirical regularities in political science measured by general govern ment consumption or sectoral expenditures government size grew dramatically during most of the postwar period intrigued by this phenomenal government growth political scientists offered numerous accounts some viewing this growth as a corollary of economic phenomena such as modernization industrialization income distribution or fiscal illusion and others attributing government growth to political causes such as bureaucratization interest group politics and electoral competition 1

understanding the family gap in pay for women with children as the gender gap in pay between women and men has been narrowing the family gap in pay between mothers and nonmothers has been widening one reason may be the institutional structure in the united states which has emphasized equal pay and opportunity policies but not family policies in contrast to other countries that have implemented both the authors now have evidence on the links between one such family policy and women s pay recent research suggests that maternity leave coverage by raising women s retention after childbirth also raises women s levels of work experience job tenure and pay

inflation and growth stories short and tall this paper reviews the stories that economists tell about the growth effects of inflation informal accounts are common but there are few models that get to grips with the effects that are probably central partly as a result of this and partly as a result of many econometric problems much of the empirical evidence remains unconvincing the paper assesses the various contributions and suggests possible improvements

multivariate tests of the zero beta capm abstract a cross sectional regression test csrt of the capm is developed and its connection to the hotelling t2 test of multivariate statistical analysis is explored algebraic relations between the csrt the likehood ratio test and the langrange multiplier test are derived and a useful small sample bound on the distribution function of the csrt is obtained an application of the csrt suggests that the crsp equally weighted index is inefficient but that the inefficiency is not explained by a firm size effect from february to december

public sector and economic growth the greek experience over the past two decades there has been an increase in the relative size of the public sector accompanied by a decline in the growth performance of the greek economy in an attempt to highlight the contribution of the government size to growth an analytical framework is developed incorporating the possibility that marginal factor productivities are not equal in the public and private sectors econometric analysis utilizing this framework points to a negative relationship between government size and economic growth this seems to derive in part from intersectoral diseconomies generated by the growing share of deft financed government activities

electoral competition and the growth of public spending in 13 industrial democracies 1950 to 1983 this article examines a theoretically important issue that has received surprisingly little attention whether the process of democratic competition for public office has fueled the growth of domestic spending in the capitalist democracies since world war ii probably because it is difficult to measure electoral competition in multiparty systems existing comparative studies of public spending either ignore this question or use dubious measures of electoral competition this study presents and tests some conceptually more appealing measures of competition the results show a strong robust relationship between improved indicators of electoral competition and the growth of domestic spending from 1950 to 1973 and 1973 to 1983 the study concludes by analyzing the implications of the findings for economic performance in the capitalist democracies and for the democratic management of fiscal policy

on multivariate tests of the capm abstract this paper evaluates the power of multivariate tests of the capital asset pricing model the results indicate that when employing an unspecified alternative hypothesis the ability of the tests to distinguish between the capm and other pricing models is poor an upper bound is derived for the distance the alternative distribution of the test statistic can be from the null distribution when the deviations from the capm are due to missing factors this upper bound explains the low power of the tests

accommodating public expenditure policies the case of fast growing asian economies abstract it is widely believed that the exceptional economic performances of the east asian economies are attributable as much to the visible hand of the state as to the invisible hand of the market this paper analyzes the experiences of japan south korea singapore and taiwan in implementing a key instrument of state intervention namely public expenditure policy the analysis shows that these economies could achieve high standards of physical and social infrastructure even with relatively low spending the key features of complementary spending policy include emphasis on macroeconomic stability cost effective spending involvement of private sector in providing quasi public goods minimum distortions in the labor markets and human resource development to achieve a broad based development

fiscal decentralization and government size numerous studies have attempted to model the possible factors contributing to universal growth in public sectors this paper analyzes one device that appears capable of controlling some of that growth fiscal decentralization the results reported here also support the use of monopoly government assumptions in models of public policy

monetary co operation and economic growth in africa comparative evidence from the cfa zone countries this article compares economic growth performance of ten african countries all members of the cfa monetary zone with that of 23 non zone sub saharan african ssa countries our descriptive results suggest that overall african economies have experienced similar growth trends which are higher in the 1970s than the 1980s however contrary to previous studies disaggregated comparison of the cfa with the ssa indicate that no significant growth differences exist between these economies moreover our empirical findings suggest that monetary expansion and capital formation have positive impacts on output growth whereas inflation and government spending show negative effects in sum although participating in a monetary union has not necessarily resulted in faster output growth it has enabled the cfa countries to better control price fluctuations and monetary expansion

inflation thresholds and the finance growth nexus abstract the robustness of the cross sectional relationship between the size of a country s financial sector and its rate of economic growth is by now well established in this article we examine whether the strength of this relationship varies with the inflation rate using five year averages of standard measures of financial development inflation and growth for 84 countries from 1960 to 1995 a series of rolling panel regressions show that there is an inflation threshold for the finance growth relationship that lies between 13 and 25 percent when inflation exceeds the threshold finance ceases to increase economic growth we also find that the level of financial depth varies inversely with inflation in low inflation environments and that disinflation is associated with a positive effect of financial depth on growth

gender and ethnicity married immigrants in britain in this paper we investigate the economic activity of married or cohabiting female immigrants in britain we distinguish between two immigrant groups foreign born females who belong to an ethnic minority group and their husbands and foreign born white females and their husbands we compare these to native born white women and their husbands our analysis deviates from the usual mean analysis and investigates employment hours worked and earnings for males and females as well as their combined family earnings along the distribution of husbands economic potential we analyse the extent to which economic disadvantage may be reinforced at the household level and investigate the extent to which it can be explained by differences in observable characteristics we find that white female immigrants and their husbands have an overall advantage in earnings over white native born both individually and at the household level minority immigrants do less well in particular at the lower end of the husbands economic potential distribution this is mainly due to the low employment of both genders which leads to a disadvantage in earnings intensified at the household level only part of this differential can be explained by observable characteristics

gender and student achievement in english schools in the uk there is a marked gender gap in the educational attainment of boys and girls at the end of compulsory education 10 per cent fewer boys achieve 5 or more good gcses this gap is by no means confined to gcse it is evident at all key stages furthermore some indicators suggest that the gap has widened over time in this paper we document the evolution of the gender gap at various stages of compulsory education in england we consider the importance of some possible explanations for the gender gap in particular factors that may explain the observed changes over time analysis of this issue is important in the context of research on the gender wage gap however it also raises policy relevant issues in relation to whether changes in the school system can effect a change in the gender gap in educational achievement we find that it is in secondary school rather than primary school where the gender gap has widened most noticeably over time controlling for attainment at the end of primary school makes very little difference to the measured gender gap at age 16 we consider the potential role of school based factors school inputs teaching practice and the examination system we show that the average gender differential cannot be explained by factors that vary across schools i e it cannot be attributed to heterogeneity across schools in how they use inputs however this does not mean that teachers cannot influence the gender gap in attainment we show that the introduction of the literacy hour and numeracy hour in primary schools made a difference to the gender gap in english and maths respectively at key stage 2 however these strategies are too recent to have made an impact on the gender gap observed in secondary school the timing of the emergence of the gender gap in secondary school coincides with the change in examination system from o levels to gcses we argue that the importance of coursework in the gcse examination is likely to be a key explanation for the emergence of the gender gap at age 16 another very important explanation may be a gender differential in skills that are taught and tested in different types of system as well as the mode of assessment we also consider the potential role of social and economic changes that would influence the relative achievement of boys and girls at age 16 however the most compelling explanation to explain the specific timing of the gender gap at this age in the england comes from the change in examination system taken together with the evidence on the literacy and numeracy strategies this shows that education policy can most definitely have an impact on the gender gap in achievement whether this is intended or not

government and growth cross sectional evidence economic theory suggests that government contributes to total economic growth in two ways positively through the provision of pigovian public goods and services and negatively through the inefficient provision of such goods and services and the distortionary effects attendant with their provision this paper develops a model that differentiates the two effects and empirically tests the model for a sample of forty eight countries evidence suggests that the net effect of government on growth is positive but that the negative effects are not insignificant though growth in government output contributes to total economic growth at the margin this is approximately offset by distortionary effects attendant with increases in the relative size of government

urban economic growth in china theory and evidence this paper analyses the relationship between per capita gdp growth and investment foreign direct investment labour force growth government expenditure and urban infrastructure based on the data

gender role attitudes and the labour market outcomes of women across oecd countries this paper uses data from the world value surveys 1990 1995 1999 to investigate the impact of gender role attitudes and work values on women s labour market outcomes across 25 oecd countries anti egalitarian views are found to display the strongest negative association with female employment rates and the gender pay gap these views are however softening among recent cohorts on the other hand perceptions of women s role as homemakers which are likely formed in youth and linked to religious ideology are more persistent over time they could be implicated in the recent slowdown of the gender convergence in pay finally the unavoidable clash between family values and egalitarian views that takes the form of an inner conflict for many women the so called mother s guilt is another obstacle in the path towards greater gender equality in the labour market copyright 2005 oxford university press

aggregation of test statistics an evaluation of the evidence on contracting and size hypotheses abstract more powerful tests of a theory of choice of accounting methods and the effect of changes in these choices on equity values are provided the power increase comes from efficiently aggregating results across studies one conclusion is that at least six variables common to more than one study have explanatory power these variables are managerial compensation leverage size risk and constraints on interest coverage and dividends another conclusion is that the posterior probability that the theory taken as a whole has explanatory power is close to one this conclusion includes the effect of variables that only appear in one study

nonnormalities and tests of asset pricing theories the robustness of the multivariate test of gibbons ross and shanken 1986 to nonnormalities in the residual covariance matrix is examined after considering the relative performance of various tests of normality simulation techniques are used to determine the effects of nonnormalities on the multivariate test it is found that where the sample nonnormalities are severe the size and or power of the test can be seriously misstated however it is also shown that these extreme sample values may overestimate the population parameters hence we conclude that the multivariate test is reasonably robust with respect to typical levels of nonnormality in traditional hypothesis testing a nonrandom test maps the values of a random variable into a sample space dichotomized into regions where a hypothesis is either accepted or rejected there are three possible outcomes from this process 1 a correct decision 2 a false rejection type i error or 3 failure to reject the hypothesis when it is false type ii error of the latter two types of error an error of the first kind is usually considered less desirable so typically a level of significance is selected with low probability of type i error e g 0 05 or 0 01 and a test is chosen so as to maximize power minimize probability of type ii error for the specified level of type i error knowledge of the relative level of these two errors is critical in assimilating the results of an experiment for example if the power of a test is equal to its significance level i e a weak test rejection of the null contains zero information 2 additionally in constructing parametric tests of hypotheses it is necessary to assume some distribution for the underlying data consequently when using parametric tests rejection of the null is only equivalent to rejection of at least one of the underlying hypotheses i e the null hypothesis or the distributional assumption interestingly the size significance level and power of procedures used to test

the size of the state economic growth and the efficient utilization of national resources the motives of the state in projecting a more than minimal presence in the economy may be conceived of as benevolent or malevolent whatever the characterization of the motivation increases in the size of the government share of the economy adversely affect economic growth and the allocation of resources nations with relatively large government shares in 1960 on the whole grew more slowly than nations with relatively small state sectors interperiod increases in the size of government were associated with lower growth rates over the period the size of the government share coefficients in the regressions were of sufficiently large magnitude to conclude that the rise in the size of the government has had a substantial depressing effect on economic growth these results are consistent with those reported by landau 1983 and marlow 1986 landau did not adjust economic growth for the growth in factor endowment consequently his results overstate the adverse effect of government size

the assessment gender and the life cycle this assessment is an introduction to the oxford review of economic policy s issue on gender and the life cycle it sets the stage by providing background information on various dimensions of gender differences pointing out differences across countries as well as over time and relates this evidence to the papers that follow it further briefly reviews the articles in the issue and puts them into context

social ties within school classes the roles of gender ethnicity and having older siblings in this paper we identify the lines along which social ties between high school teenagers are primarily formed to this end we introduce interaction weights between pupils in the same school class that are a function of exogenous individual background characteristics such as gender ethnicity and having older siblings the resulting model with endogenous interactions and school specific fixed effects is estimated using data from the dutch national school youth survey nsys a survey in which in principle all pupils in a sampled class are interviewed by combining the 1992 1996 1999 and 2001 nsys data we are able to identify trends in social relationships of teenagers we find that the roles that gender and ethnicity play in how teenagers interact varies strongly across different types of behaviour for example going out shows strong within ethnicity interactions while expenditures on cell phones and on clothing exhibit mainly between girls interactions having older siblings has a minor effect on within school class social interactions there is weak evidence of decreased ethnic segregation within school classes during the decade considered

subperiod aggregation and the power of multivariate tests of portfolio efficiency abstract when testing portfolio efficiency empiricists usually perform tests using subperiods and aggregate the results in some manner although the power of individual subperiod tests has been studied previously little is known about the power of the aggregate test power is evaluated here through simulations using two different aggregation techniques aggregate power is substantially higher than that for a single subperiod for example in one scenario the aggregate power is 0 77 over a sixty year period but only 0 17 for each five year subperiod in addition the level of power depends on the method of aggregation

a note on cross country growth regressions a large and growing literature searches for the determinants of economic growth employing cross country regression analysis this approach implicitly assumes that countries possess similar structu

government size and economic growth the african experience 1960 85 1990 government size and economic growth the african experience 1960 85 applied economics vol 22 no 10 pp 1427 1435

thresholds in the finance growth nexus a cross country analysis thresholds of inflation government size trade openness and per capita income for the finance growth nexus are investigated using five year averages of standard variables for 84 countries from 1965 to 2004 the results suggest that i high inflation crowds out positive effects of financial depth on long run growth ii small government sizes hurt the finance growth nexus in low income countries while large government sizes hurt high income countries iii low levels of trade openness are sufficient for finance growth nexus in high income countries but low income countries need higher levels of trade openness for similar magnitudes of the finance growth nexus and iv catch up effects through the finance growth nexus are higher for moderate per capita income levels

thresholds of financial development in the euro area we analyse the dynamics of financial development and economic growth in the euro area as these countries went through considerably higher levels of financial development using a balanced panel data of 38 years from 1980 to 2018 we offer new evidence on the finance growth nexus we show the presence of non linearity as there is an inverted u shaped relationship between finance and growth in the long run estimating the thresholds in the finance growth nexus we notice a threshold effect at 74 86 of gdp for domestic credit 51 of gdp for stock turnover ratio and 65 of gdp for stock market capitalisation we notice that exceeding the threshold causes deceleration in economic growth as too much finance results in crowding out effect for productive economic activities the panel granger causality test results show that financial development should be associated with optimal growth performance these findings in the euro area provide some useful policy implications to the emerging and developing economies in designing their financial development strategies

vocational training and gender wages and occupational mobility among young workers this paper investigates the relationship between the gender wage gap the choice of training occupation and occupational mobility we use longitudinal data for young workers with apprenticeship training in west germany workers make occupational career choices early during their careers and women and men pursue very different occupational careers we reconsider whether through occupational segregation women are locked in low wage careers kunze 2005 or whether they can move up to higher wage paths through mobility we furthermore investigate whether patterns have changed across cohorts during the period 1975 and 2001 and whether effects vary across the distribution the main results are first while there exists a persistent gender wage gap over experience the gap has decreased over time second in the lower part of the wage distribution the gap is highest and it increases with experience third occupational mobility is lower for women than for men and the wage gains due to occupational mobility are higher for men than for women especially in the lower part of the wage distribution we conclude that occupational mobility has reduced the gender wage gap but lock in effects are still stronger for women compared to men

government special interest groups and economic growth in descending order of robustness and strength the four major conclusions are i the experience of industrial countries in the postwar period indicates that a large welfare state has been associated with a high rate of economic growth ii the olson thesis that powerful special interest groups impede growth receives empirical support iii the relation between growth and the welfare state is non linear with increases in the size of the welfare state beyond some critical level one sixth of gdp according to our estimates resulting in reductions rather than increases in the growth rates and iv the strength of the growth promoting properties of the welfare state is positively related to the strength of special interest groups as proxied by the proportion of the work force unionized one possible interpretation of these results runs as follows a large welfare state may retard economic growth by reducing the incentives to work to save to move and to change on the other hand in a situation where special interest groups have aquired significant power to block change if they so desire the welfare state which offers assistance to those who are the victims of change may play a growth enhancing role in reducing the incentive to block change the fourth conclusion just stated supports this view the welfare state may also foster economic growth through favourable effects on social consensus political stability and labour management relations the results suggest that the growth promoting forces predominate as long as the welfare state is not too large but beyond a certain point which corresponds more or less to the median situation among developed countries today the growth retarding elements come to the fore

economic freedom government policy and the trade off between equity and economic growth this study investigates the role that economicfreedom plays in economic growth and in the distribution in marketincome the role of government policy in advancingeconomic progress and in promoting income equality and the effectthat the rate of economic progress has on thedistribution of market income structural and reduced formmodels are estimated that reveal that economic freedompromotes both economic growth and equity and that there is apositive but relatively small trade off between growth andincome inequality

openness and the finance growth nexus abstract rajan and zingales 2003 hypothesize that openness trade and financial is a crucial determinant of financial development the main policy implication emerging from this hypothesis is that openness should be promoted as a means of facilitating economic growth through financial development while subsequent research confirms that openness affects financial development we study whether finance continues to be growth promoting as economies become increasingly open a key implicit assumption behind the policy recommendation using data from 78 economies for the period 1981 2006 we find that very high levels of financial openness generally erode the growth promoting role of financial development while high trade openness strengthens it these worldwide findings by and large hold for subsamples of sub saharan african latin american and oecd economies notable exceptions are the invariance of the finance growth fg nexus on trade openness in oecd economies and the positive effect of financial openness on the fg link in latin american economies

government and economic growth a non linear relationship recently various authors have examined the relationship between growth in government size and total economic growth in each case the authors permitted only a monotonic relationship this paper examines the issue of a non linear relationship between growth in government and overall growth in the economy

government expenditure corruption and total factor productivity abstract this paper classifies government expenditures into three types and constructs a theoretical framework to explore the influences of government expenditures and corruption on total factor productivity it then establishes a dynamic spatial autoregressive model and a panel threshold model to test the theoretical hypotheses based on provincial panel data from 2007 to 2014 the results illustrate that u shape curve relationships exist between government expenditures of administrative service investment development safeguard governance and total factor productivity and that the relationship between the government expenditure structure and total factor productivity follows an inverted u shape curve in addition the findings suggest that increased corruption levels can directly reduce regional total factor productivity and that the effects of the proportions of administrative service expenditures investment development expenditures and safeguard governance expenditures on total factor productivity have a single corruption threshold increasing the proportions of government expenditures could improve the total factor productivity up until the threshold value

government and economic growth in the less developed countries an empirical study for 1960 1980 adam smith founded modern economics with a powerful argument that free markets are the best route to prosperity and economic growth his conclusion has been studied and debated by economists ever since including nobel prize winners friedman hayek kuznets lewis myrdal and schultz whatever economists have concluded since world war ii the majority of the less developed countries seem to have opted for extensive government regulation of the private sector and for a large public sector has the large government role slowed or accelerated the growth of ldcs obviously this is an important issue this study looks at government expenditure revenue raising and regulation greater emphasis is put on expenditure because 1 the revenue raised is presumably a function of the level of expenditure and 2 there are few internationally comparable measures of regulation there are virtually no empirical studies of the general impact of government on economic growth an extensive literature search turned up only three papers gemmell analyzed the impact of nonmarket sector growth on various measures of macroeconomic performance for 27 ldcs and developed countries for 1960 and 1970 he drew no general conclusions about the relation between the size of the nonmarket sector and economic growth marsden found a negative relation between tax gdp ratios and economic growth for a cross section of 20 ldcs and developed countries for the 1970 79 period 2 i found a negative relationship between the share of government consumption expenditure in gdp and the growth of per capita gdp for a cross section of 96 ldcs and developed countries over various time periods between 1961 and 1976 3 this paper extends the approach used in my 1983 article

economic growth and alternative deficit reducing tax increases and expenditure cuts a cross sectional study this paper assesses empirically the relative desirability of alternative deficit reducing tax increases and expenditure cuts in terms of their individual impact on economic growth using cross sectional data for a sample of 21 developed countries for the period 1972 81

public choice and economic aid a major development in the analysis of government economic policies in the developed countries has been the rise of the public choice school the essence of this approach is the application of the same basic assumptions that are used in the study of consumers and producers to political decision makers in the public choice approach decision makers in the public sector are assumed to be trying to maximize their personal benefits similarly to consumers and firms imputing utility maximizing behavior to public sector decision makers does not automatically lead to the conclusion that they will not act in the general interest rather whether they do or not becomes a question of the system of rewards and constraints they face as adam smith demonstrated for firms self interested parties will act in the general interest if properly constrained and rewarded however the public choice approach does imply that public sector decision makers will act in the general interest only if the constraints and incentives on their behavior make serving the general interest also in their interest it would appear that development economics which is highly concerned with government policies could benefit from the application of the public choice perspective this article attempts to do this with respect to the effectiveness of economic aid in promoting economic growth there is an extensive literature that discusses theoretically the effectiveness of aid and a more modest literature that attempts to estimate empirically the impact of aid on growth the literature was recently surveyed by r riddell he surveys the views of the major proponents and critics of aid marxist critics of aid reject the market and the notion of a neutral state pursuing the general interest there seem to be no studies of aid that adopt the public choice approach which both accepts the efficiencies of the market as an instrument for economic growth and also assumes government officials are utility

openness in services trade and economic growth abstract we examine the relationship between openness in services trade both telecommunication and financial and economic growth via the threshold regression model to test for a differential impact between low and high income countries results confirm the existence of a two regime split

government size and economic growth a new framework and some evidence from cross section and time series data a study of the impact of government size on economic performance and growth is important theoretically one point of view suggests that a larger government size is likely to be detrimental to efficiency and economic growth because for example i government operations are often conducted inefficiently ii the regulatory process imposes excessive burdens and costs on the economic system and iii many of government s fiscal and monetary policies tend to distort economic incentives and lower the productivity of the system at the other extreme one can identify some points of view that assign to the government a critical role in the process of economic development and could argue that a larger government size is likely to be a more powerful engine of economic development there are several arguments on which the latter point of view is based these include besides others i role of the government in harmonizing conflicts between private and social interests ii prevention of exploitation of the country by foreigners and iii securing an increase in productive investment and providing a socially optimal direction for growth and development

explaining differences in state growth catching up versus olson in this paper we have tested various explanations for differences in rates of economic growth across states we found no evidence consistent with olson s hypothesis that differences in state age a proxy for the strength of special interest groups can explain differences in state growth furthermore our results indicate that a regression containing only initial income explains most of the variation in the growth of state income in sum a good part of the more rapid growth of southern and other fast growing states is simply a convergence to the national average this convergence is an expected result of basic economic theory given free trade in goods and factors our results are however not necessarily a rejection of the olson hypothesis it may well be that the hypothesis should only be applied to comparisons between nation states not to comparisons between political divisions of the same nation state the institutional and political similarities of the american states may swamp the differences and make the olson hypothesis inapplicable the tendencies cited by olson may indeed be present in the american economy but their differential effect is much too small to explain any of the variation in economic performance across states

consistent estimates of the impact of special interest groups on economic growth empirical studies designed to testolson s 1982 theory of institutional sclerosis aretypically forced to rely upon proxies to measure theability of special interest groups to engage inredistributive activities which in turn areexpected to hinder economic growth this note showsthat reliance on proxies biases the estimates towardzero here instrumental variable routines areutilized which increase the estimated impact ofspecial interests on the economy

what is happening to the impact of financial deepening on economic growth i introduction among the strongest elements of the modern economists canon is that financial sector development has a significant impact on economic growth a generation ago economists like goldsmith 1969 1 and mckinnon 1973 began to draw attention to the benefits of financial structure development and financial liberalization by the early 1990s mckinnon 1991 12 could write with confidence that now however there is widespread agreement that flows of saving and investment should be voluntary and significantly decentralized in an open capital market at close to equilibrium interest rates since the 1990s a burgeoning empirical literature has illustrated the importance of financial sector development for economic growth despite the growing consensus however we find that the link between finance and growth in cross country panel data has weakened considerably over time at the very time that financial sector liberalization spread around the world the influence of financial sector development on economic growth has diminished the seminal empirical work that established the growth finance link is king and levine 1993 which extended the cross country framework introduced in barro 1991 by adding financial variables such as the ratios of liquid liabilities or claims on the private sector to gross domestic product gdp to the standard growth regression they found a robust positive and statistically significant relationship between initial financial conditions and subsequent growth in real per capita incomes for a cross section of about 80 countries in the subsequent decade numerous empirical studies expanded upon this using both cross country and panel data sets for the post 1960 period 2 in this paper we reexamine the core cross country panel result and find that the impact of financial deepening on growth is not as strong with more recent data as it appeared in the original panel studies with data for the period from 1960 to 1989 we consider various explanations for this clear shift first we suggest that financial deepening has a positive effect on growth if not done to excess rapid and excessive deepening as manifested in a credit boom can be problematic even in the most developed markets because it can both weaken the banking system and bring inflationary pressures we test this hypothesis by looking at the finance growth nexus among countries that have or have not experienced financial sector crises we find that once crisis episodes are removed the finance growth relationship remains intact its weakening over time thus seems to be a result of an increased incidence of crises in later years our second and related hypothesis is that the widespread liberalization of financial markets that occurred in the late 1980s and early 1990s made financial deepening less effective this is reminiscent of robert lucas s 1975 critique of econometric policy evaluation advanced three decades ago policies that have promoted and or forced increases in financial depth over the past two decades may have altered the basic structural relationship between finance and growth this could occur if the observed benefits of financial deepening led many countries to liberalize before the associated legal and regulatory institutions were sufficiently well developed as a consequence the impact of financial deepening on growth would become smaller our evidence does not indicate that recent liberalizations are responsible for the breakdown of the finance growth link however there may be an indirect link as premature financial development can lead to financial crises that have real effects third we examine the role of global equity markets that have grown in importance and prominence in the years over which the finance growth relationship disappeared however we do not find any evidence to suggest that equity market growth has substituted for the role of credit markets and banks in particular

an east asian model of economic development japan taiwan and south korea the east asian model of economic development focuses on 5 shared characteristics that seem significant in the contemporary economic development of japan taiwan and korea they are economic characteristics and include 1 high investment ratios 2 small public sectors 3 competitive labor markets 4 export expansion and 5 government intervention in the economy large and efficient investments in human capital and well developed capacities to absorb new technology are 2 other economic features shared by the three one could add overcrowding high man land ratios and scarcity of natural resources though these are handicaps rather than sources of economic strength it is possible however that virtue springs from necessity and that ample arable land or abundant natural resources mainly permit governments to postpone the difficult decisions needed to promote development rather than provide the wherewithal needed to finance development other noneconomic characteristics of the three such as ethnic and linguistic homogeneity relatively compact geography manageable population size and the confucian tradition have not been considered in the model even though they have undoubtedly influenced labor productivity savings behavior and other aspects of economic performance whether the east asian model ought to be followed depends on whether current and foreseeable circumstances are sufficiently like those faced by the three to justify using the same policies that they used applicability of the east asian model should also depend on whether the strategy employed by the three has been responsible for their economic success 2 aspects of the east asian models policy features are noteworthy 1 the policies typically work by influencing rather than replacing private market decisions and 2 the public expects government to intervene to influence economic growth

public expenditure and national income causality further evidence on the role of omitted variables whether changes in public expenditure growth help predict changes in national income growth and or vice versa remains an important issue of sustained interest in the empirical public finance literature in recent years attention has mainly been confined to two specific areas namely estimation of the impact of the public sector on output growth by means of regression analysis and causality testing unfortunately the outcome of both types of analysis has been inconclusive focussing on the impact studies we note that a number of empirical investigations have attempted to measure the effect of the size of the public sector on overall economic growth for instance ram 19 utilizing a two sector model found that growth of government size has a positive effect on economic growth landau 14 15 however presented opposite evidence indicating that the government sector expansion led to a decline in output growth for many dcs and ldcs since 1960 in a recent study barth keleher and russek 4 estimated variants of ram s models with data for 30 countries their empirical results largely support a negative relationship between the scale of government and aggregate economic activity furthermore using the hausman procedure they rejected the hypothesis that the independent variables namely real government spending or other measures of the scale of the government depending on the specification in the regression equations are exogenous this strongly suggests that the conclusions reached by

does too much government spending depress the economic development of transition economies evidences from dynamic panel threshold analysis abstractthis paper investigates the relationship between government size and economic growth and determines the optimal level of government spending to maximize economic growth the paper applies a

keynes versus wagner public expenditure and national income for three african countries the public expenditure income hypothesis has long been debated in economics following keynes public expenditure is seen as an exogenous factor to be used as a policy instrument to influence growth on the other hand wagner argues that expenditure is an endogenous factor or an outcome not a cause of growth in national income the purpose of this paper is to apply both the granger and holmes hutton statistical procedures to test the income expenditure hypothesis for three african countries ghana kenya and south africa we find that the hypothesis of public expenditure causing national income is not supported by the data for these african countries

economic growth and the expanding public sector a reexamination utilizing a granger causality approach the authors test whether there has been a causal rela tion between public sector growth and real economic growth rates for the oecd countries special emphasis is laid on feedback effects from economic growth to government growth that result from macroeconomic policy the authors find that government growth has had mixed effects on economic growth rates positive for some countries and negative f or others however for the majority of the oecd countries there was no discernable impact of government growth on the rate of real econo mic growth copyright 1988 by mit press

trade openness and economic growth a cross country empirical investigation abstract this paper demonstrates that trade liberalization does not have a simple and straightforward relationship with growth using a large number of openness measures for a cross section of countries over the last three decades we use two groups of trade openness measures the regression results for numerous trade intensity ratios are mostly consistent with the existing literature however contrary to the conventional view on the growth effects of trade barriers our estimation results show that trade barriers are positively and in most specifications significantly associated with growth especially for developing countries and they are consistent with the findings of theoretical growth and development literature

take the money and run political turnover rent seeking and economic growth abstract we find a negative and significant relationship between gubernatorial turnover and u s state economic growth although our finding of an inverse relationship between growth and political instability may seem to contradict olson s 1982a famous hypothesis regarding the growth retarding nature of political stability such constitutional political changes were not primarily what olson had in mind we argue that enhanced political turnover is associated with more rent seeking since payoffs to focusing on special interest redistributive policies vs general growth enhancing ones are greater for less durable regimes therefore we interpret our evidence as supportive of olson s broader argument concerning the negative affect of rent seeking behavior on growth

evidence on economic growth and government size the purpose of this article is to explore the effect of government size on economic growth in the united states using time series data over the period 1950 to 1998 a multi equation model is developed to examine the relationship between economic growth and government size the results indicate that government size has a significant and negative effect on economic growth

trade size order imbalance and the volatility volume relation abstract this paper examines the roles of the number of trades size of trades and order imbalance buyer versus seller initiated trades in explaining the volatility volume relation for a sample of nyse and nasdaq stocks our results reconfirm the significance of the size of trades beyond that of the number of trades in the volatility volume relation on both markets after controlling for the return impact of order imbalance the volatility volume relation becomes much weaker for nyse stocks the order imbalance in large trade size categories affects the return more than in smaller size categories for nasdaq stocks the largest return impact comes from the order imbalance in maximum sized small order execution system soes trades

multivariate tests of asset pricing the comparative power of alternative statistics this paper examines estimation issues associated with multivariate tests of asset pricing two issues are considered 1 the constraint that the sample size n must be less than the time series t and 2 the relative effect on power of using the multivariate statistic versus a univariate counterpart we find that an alternative statistic that allows for large n does not dominate the usual portfolio tests more notably we find that the power of a simple diagonal statistic usually dominates the multivariate statistic for cases considered inthis study

inflation drag or taxation in drag responsible for the rising share of government in australian gdp i am sure that these results will be by no means the last word possible many other influences have been neglected nonetheless they are quite striking and appear to indicate that price level effects inflation have been a major if not the major influence in terms of raising the shares of government revenue and expenditure in gdp over the period 1949 50 to 1987 88 in australia this inflation drag which is really taxation in drag has only been able to operate because of a combination of a highly progressive personal taxation system and the absence for most of this period of any inflation indexation of the tax system i postulate that the primary cause is a high demand from certain segments of the community and special interest groups for greater government outlays and transfer payments however these demands may not in themselves be enough to achieve the objectives of these groups unless combined with rational voter ignorance about the real price to be paid for these activities in terms of higher taxes and future taxes to pay the accumulated deficits a high inflation rate makes it possible for real government expenditures to rise greatly while at the same time the government announces notional tax cuts which may be incorrectly perceived by voters as real tax cuts particularly since the early to middle 1970s australian governments have not had to rely on announcing tax increases to finance rapidly growing real levels of expenditure this has lowered the perceived cost of these programs and facilitated the rapidly rising share of government revenue and expenditure in gdp a sign of some voter disenchantment with ever rising expenditure shares has come in the last year or two as the hawke keating government has been successful in actually slightly lowering the expenditure share one obvious reform which would force governments to be more honest with voters is complete inflation indexation of tax brackets and capital income however as the experimentation with inflation indexation by the fraser government showed no government is likely to voluntarily persist with even partial let alone complete tax indexation to introduce and maintain such a measure some sort of tax constitution as explored by brennan and buchanan 1980 1985 may be desirable since the likelihood of achieving such reform via a constitutional referendum seems remote a promising alternative is the various flat tax proposals such as the hall and rabushka 1985 scheme any scheme which brings average and marginal tax rates into greater equality not only forces politicians to be more honest and open about the consequences of expenditure increases but it also unequivocally improves the efficiency of the tax system via the lowering of work disincentive effects swan 1982 1984 and the excess burden of taxation for a given overall government tax take there cannot be any aggregate income effect offsetting the favourable substitution effect from lowering marginal tax rates when the average level of taxes is raised there is a potential role for income effects since individuals who have been made worse off by tax increases may be motivated to work more to maintain their income higher government expenditure does not necessarily provide higher benefits from public goods to offset lower personal after tax income it is interesting that supporters of big government such as wilenski 1986 30 should use the income effect argument to claim that the effect of taxes on work incentives is an empirical matter since he is in effect conceding that the higher government expenditure which results from higher taxes does not necessarily compensate taxpayers for the burden of these higher taxes i e that the income effect exists and is unfavourable a more fundamental line of attack on the rational ignorance of voters which may be the root cause of many weaknesses displayed by so called democratic governments has only been hinted at here such fundamental reforms may involve the institution of well informed middle persons between voters and governments fostered by revolutionary proposals such as markets in votes and payments for votes instead of the present penalties for failing to vote

the composition of public expenditure and economic growth abstract noting that the literature has focused on the link between the level of public expenditure and growth we derive conditions under which a change in the composition of expenditure leads to a higher steady state growth rate of the economy the conditions depend not just on the physical productivity of the different components of public expenditure but also on the initial shares using data from 43 developing countries over 20 years we show that an increase in the share of current expenditure has positive and statistically significant growth effects by contrast the relationship between the capital component of public expenditure and per capita growth is negative thus seemingly productive expenditures when used in excess could become unproductive these results imply that developing country governments have been misallocating public expenditures in favor of capital expenditures at the expense of current expenditures

does one size fit all a reexamination of the finance and growth relationship abstract recent research has found a strong positive effect of a country s financial development on economic growth we propose that this relationship may vary according to the level of financial development divided in three regions in the low region countries with very low levels of financial development additional improvements in financial markets have an uncertain effect on growth in the intermediate region financial development has a large positive effect on growth finally in the high region the effect is positive but smaller we examine a panel of 74 countries using generalized method of moments gmm dynamic panel techniques and find support for the different regions

government size and growth a survey and interpretation of the evidence the literature on the relationship between the size of government and economic growth is full of seemingly contradictory findings this conflict is largely explained by variations in definitions and the countries studied an alternative approach of limiting the focus to studies of the relationship in rich countries measuring government size as total taxes or total expenditure relative to gdp and relying on panel data estimations with variation over time reveals a more consistent picture the most recent studies find a significant negative correlation an increase in government size by 10 percentage points is associated with a 0 5 to 1 percent lower annual growth rate we discuss efforts to make sense of this correlation and note several pitfalls involved in giving it a causal interpretation against this background we discuss two explanations of why several countries with high taxes seem able to enjoy above average growth one hypothesis is that countries with higher social trust levels are able to develop larger government sectors without harming the economy another explanation is that countries with large governments compensate for high taxes and spending by implementing market friendly policies in other areas both explanations are supported by ongoing research

economic growth and the quantity and distribution of education a survey the focus of this survey is to discuss different attempts at incorporating the distributional dimension of human capital into the theoretical and empirical growth framework we present a series of models which deviate from the direct link between the aggregate or average level of human capital and economic growth in that they introduce the distribution of education as a new element in explaining the relationship under investigation after surveying the theoretical literature we present recent empirical work on the relation between economic performance and the average level as well as the distribution of education respectively

government expenditure and economic growth a cross country study this paper examines the relationship between the share of government consumption expenditure in gdp and the rate of growth of real per capita gdp the work of the u n international comparison project has recently made available new estimates for over 100 countries of both per capita gdp and the share of government consumption these new estimates are based on direct price comparisons rather than exchange rate conversions as a result the statistics for different countries are more comparable and cross country studies will be more reliable

do cio it budgets explain bigger or smaller governments theory and evidence from u s state governments given the recent concern on big governments and rising budget deficits in the united states and european nations there has been a fundamental economic debate on the proper boundary and role of governments in a society inspired by this debate we study the relationship between information technology it and government size drawing on a broad range of the literature from multiple disciplines such as information systems industrial organization and political sciences we present several theoretical mechanisms that explain the impact of it on government expenditures using a variety of data on it spending and state government expenditures we find that greater it investments made by a state chief information officer cio are associated with lower state government spending it is estimated that on average a 1 increase in state cio budgets is associated with a reduction of as much as 3 49 in state overall expenditures this study contributes to the literature by identifying a key technological factor that affects government spending and showing that it investments can be a means to restrain government growth