estimating residential demand for electricity in greece abstract this paper examines the residential demand for electricity in greece the issues of structural stability price and income sensitivity of both long and short run residential demand for electricity in greece were examined employing monthly data over the period 1986 1999 the long run residential demand for electricity is estimated taking into account changes in weather conditions weighted by the size of the population employing multivariate framework analysis a long run residential demand function for electricity sensitive to real income price level and weather conditions is found to exist and the importance of short run deviations is presented using vector error correction model vecm estimation the empirical evidence suggests the presence of a stable residential demand for electricity in greece both in the long and short run periods and the policy implications of such a relationship are presented

factor demand technical change and inter fuel substitution in africa abstract the translog production function has been widely used in applied production analysis due to its flexibility and superiority over other functional forms this study develops a translog production function for a group of african countries the random effects model is estimated using generalized least squares estimator the main findings are first output in africa is driven by a more intensive use of petroleum and electricity and to a lesser extent capital labor and coal relative to technological progress second african production technology exhibits increasing returns to scale suggesting a path towards market entry barriers third technical change is scale biased and factor augmenting albeit very slow fourth all energy inputs are substitutes indicating africa s potential to proportionally switch towards cleaner fuels without adversely affecting economic growth finally and perhaps more generally the study reinforces the assertion that imposing restrictions like homotheticity homogeneity or separability on the production technology is unrealistic and should rather be a testable hypothesis within any applied analysis in view of the documented findings relevant implications for africa are discussed

elements for the development of public policies in the residential sector of mexico based in the energy reform and the energy transition law abstract mexico has entered in an important dynamic of structural changes in the energy area proof of this it is the energy reform 2013 and the energy transition law published the last december 24th 2015 thus it is important to carry out studies of the impacts of future politics in the consumption of the population so this study estimate an energy demand system using microdata collected from 97 817 households in a national households income and expenditure survey enigh acronyms in spanish encuesta nacional de ingresos y gastos de los hogares in the 20 years period from 1994 to 2014 the magnitudes of all the fuels are smaller than one indicating that electricity lpg gasoline and public transport are normal goods while lpg is the most inelastic energy source the geographic factor shows that households in the north of mexico tend to consume more gasoline whereas in the south of the country the lowest share of lpg expenditure is reported the rigorous evaluation of energy demanded in households will help policy makers to put forward more efficient reforms

aggregate demand for electricity in south africa an analysis using the bounds testing approach to cointegration abstract electricity demand in south africa has grown at a very rapid rate over the past decade as part of reform initiatives to enhance long term sustainability of the country s electricity industry south africa s authorities have in recent years sought to develop an electricity pricing framework that is cost reflective and forms the cornerstone of demand management schemes meant to foster changes in consumption behaviour and enhance efficiency in resource use the effects of any pricing policy on aggregate electricity consumption will depend on a useful understanding of the factors that influence electricity demand and the magnitude to which electricity demand responds to changes in such factors in this context this paper applies the bounds testing approach to cointegration within an autoregressive distributed lag framework to examine the aggregate demand for electricity in south africa during the period 1960 2007 the results indicate that in the long run income is the main determinant of electricity demand with electricity prices having an insignificant effect on aggregate electricity demand future pricing policies will need to ensure that electricity prices are cost reflective and enhance efficiency of electricity supply and use

on electricity consumption and economic growth in china abstract the invention and application of the electric power technology triggered the second industrial revolution in human history which marked the human society entered the age of electricity electricity provides the sustainable power for economic and social development with the rapid development of economy the electricity consumption is also increasing the increase of electricity consumption has further promoted the progress of the industrial economy in order to achieve the goal of improving the level of economic development while reducing energy consumption it is necessary to reveal the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth this study is an extensive overview of the literature surrounding this topic in this paper we focus on the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in china we first analyze the general situation of china s electricity consumption and economic development then we explore the relationship between china s electricity consumption and economic growth from three dimensions i e the time dimension the regional dimension and the industrial dimension finally we study the key issues in the research of the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth including variable selection model construction and results discussion this work suggests that the nature of the nexus in china should and can be explored from a wider perspective by developing a suitable integrated methodological framework

the non linear link between electricity consumption and temperature in europe a threshold panel approach this paper investigates the relationship between electricity demand and temperature in the european union we address this issue by means of a panel threshold regression model on 15 european countries over the last two decades our results confirm the non linearity of the link between electricity consumption and temperature found in more limited geographical areas in previous studies by distinguishing between north and south countries we also find that this non linear pattern is more pronounced in the warm countries finally rolling regressions show that the sensitivity of electricity consumption to temperature in summer has increased in the recent period

a multivariate cointegrated modelling approach in testing temporal causality between energy consumption real income and prices with an application to two asian ldcs unlike previous studies on the casual relationship between energy consumption and economic growth this paper illustrates how the finding of cointegration i e long term equilibrium relationship between these variables may be used in testing granger causality based on the most recent johansen s multiple cointegration tests preceded by various unit root or nonstationarity tests we test for cointegration between total energy consumption real income and price level of two asian ldcs thailand and sri lanka nonrejection of cointegration between variables rules out granger noncausality and implies at least one way of granger causality either unidirectional or bidirectional secondly by using a dynamic vector error correction model we then analyse the direction of granger causation and hence the within sample grangerexogeneity or endogeneity of each of the variables thirdly the relative strength of the causality is gauged through the dynamic variance decomposition technique by decomposing the total

industrialization electricity consumption and co2 emissions in bangladesh this paper investigates the relationship between industrialization electricity consumption and co2 emissions in case of bangladesh using quarter frequency data over the period of 1975 2010 the ar

electricity consumption real gdp causality nexus evidence from a bootstrapped causality test for 30 oecd countries the goal of this paper is to examine any causal effects between electricity consumption and real gdp for 30 oecd countries we use a bootstrapped causality testing approach and unravel evidence in favour of electricity consumption causing real gdp in australia iceland italy the slovak republic the czech republic korea portugal and the uk the implication is that electricity conservation policies will negatively impact real gdp in these countries however for the rest of the 22 countries our findings suggest that electricity conversation policies will not affect real gdp

economic growth and electricity consumption in cote d ivoire evidence from time series analysis this paper examines the causal relationship between the electric power industry and the economic growth of cote d ivoire using the data from 1971 to 2008 a test was conducted for the cointegration and granger causality within an error correction model results from these tests reveal a bidirectional causality between per capita electricity consumption and per capita gdp a unidirectional causality running from electricity consumption to industry value added appears in the short run economic growth is found to have great effects on electricity consumption and a reverse causality from electricity to economic growth may also appear in the long run there is a unidirectional causality between electricity and both gdp and industry value added from these findings we conclude that the country will be energy dependent in the long run and must therefore secure the production network from shortfalls to ensure a sustainable development path accordingly government should adopt policies aimed at increasing the investment in the sector by stepping up electricity production from existing and new energy sources

a literature survey on energy growth nexus abstract this paper provides a survey of the recent progress in the literature of energy consumption economic growth and electricity consumption economic growth causality nexus the survey highlights that most empirical studies focus on either testing the role of energy electricity in stimulating economic growth or examining the direction of causality between these two variables although the positive role of energy on growth has become a stylized fact there are some methodological reservations about the results from these empirical studies a general observation from these studies is that the literature produced conflicting results and there is no consensus neither on the existence nor on the direction of causality between energy consumption electricity consumption and economic growth as a policy implication to avoid from conflicting and unreliable results the authors may use the autoregressive distributed lags bounds test two regime threshold co integration models panel data approach and multivariate models including new variables such as real gross fixed capital formation labor force carbon dioxide emissions population exchange rates interest rates etc thus the authors should focus more on the new approaches and perspectives rather than by employing usual methods based on a set of common variables for different countries and different intervals of time

global warming and energy demand list of tables list of figures list of contributors preface 1 global warming and energy elasticities terry barker paul ekins and nick johnstonepart 1 estimating long term energy elasticities 2 alternative approaches to estimating long run energy demand elasticities an application to asian developing countries ron smith and m hashem pesaran 3 a survey of international energy elasticities neil manning and jago atkinson 4 long run demand elasticities for gasoline thomas sterner and mikael franzen 5 responses of energy demand in uk manufacturing to the energy price increases of 1973 and 1979 80 alan ingham 6 elasticities for oecd aggregate final energy demand lakis vouyoukas 7 modelling uk energy demand derek hodgson and keith millerpart ii energy the economy and greenhouse gas abatement 8 endogenous technological progress in fossil fuel demand laurence boone stephen hall david kemball cook and clare smith 9 uk energy price elasticities and their implications for long term co2 abatement terry barker 10 price elasticity and market structure overcoming obstacles to ensure energy efficiency tim jackson 11 rethinking the use of energy elasticities stefan p schleicher 12 revisiting the costs of co2 abatement paul ekins 13 asymmetrical price elasticities of energy demand michael grubb14 conclusions terry barker paul ekins and nick johnstone bibliography index

are fluctuations in coal consumption per capita temporary evidence from developed and developing economies abstract this paper investigates the unit root properties of coal consumption per capita for the 47 developed and developing countries for 1965 2010 period to examine the stationary properties of coal consumption per capita lagrange multiplier lm unit root test with one break and two breaks crash model has been utilized according to empirical results the coal consumption is stationary in almost all the countries analyzed thus if the coal consumption is mean or trend reverting then it follows that the series will return to its mean value or trend path and it might be possible to forecast future movements in the coal consumption based on past behaviors of the series for the policy makers it is not necessary to pay attention to coal consumption excepting for indian and italian however for the researchers it is important to take into account the stationarity property of coal consumption and also structural breaks should be modeled in their future studies

macroeconomic factors and microlevel bank behavior we analyze the link between banks and the macroeconomy using a model that extends a macroeconomic var for the u s with a set of factors summarizing conditions in about 1 500 commercial banks we investigate how macroeconomic shocks are transmitted to individual banks and obtain the following main findings backward looking risk of a representative bank declines and bank lending increases following expansionary shocks forward looking risk increases following an expansionary monetary policy shock there is however substantial heterogeneity in the transmission of macroeconomic shocks which is due to bank size capitalization liquidity risk and the exposure to real estate and consumer loans

short and long run elasticities in energy demand a cointegration approach abstract short and long run energy demand elasticities are estimated on danish annual data for 1948 1990 energy consumption the real price of energy and real gdp appear to be non stationary variables cointegration and error correction methods are therefore applied all estimated parameters have the expected signs and magnitudes and no evidence is found of a structural break in energy demand caused by the increases in real energy prices since 1973 74

energy and national income in korea further evidence on the role of omitted variables abstract results of this paper indicate that the real oil price is a major determinant of real national income and energy consumption the combined effects of real money and real government expenditure on real income and energy consumption are also substantial a lack of causality or the causality between energy and real income in prior studies is due to the omitted variables results also confirm that the two oil price shocks combined adversely affected real national income

interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts the effects of monetary policy existing theory and evidence on the effects of monetary policy are reviewed substantial room for disagreement among economists remains new evidence based on multivariate time series studies of several countries is presented while certain patterns in the data consistent with effective monetary policy are strikingly similar across countries others particularly the tendency of interest rate increases to predict high inflation are harder to reconcile with effective monetary policy

residential electricity demand dynamics in turkey abstract this article provides fresh empirical evidences for the income and price elasticies of the residential energy demand both in the short run and long run for turkey over the period 1968 2005 using the bounds testing procedure to cointegration the computed elasticities of income and price are consistent with the previous studies and as expected the long run elasticities are greater than the short run elasticities an augmented form of granger causality analysis is implemented among residential electricity income price and urbanization in the long run causality runs interactively through the error correction term from income price and urbanization to residential energy but the short run causality tests are inconclusive the parameter stability of the short run as well as long run coefficients in the residential energy demand function are tested the results of these tests display a stable pattern

an empirical analysis of energy demand in namibia abstract using a unique database of end user local energy data and the recently developed autoregressive distributed lag ardl bounds testing approach to cointegration we estimate the long run elasticities of the namibian energy demand function at both aggregated level and by type of energy electricity petrol and diesel for the period 1980 2002 our main results show that energy consumption responds positively to changes in gdp and negatively to changes in energy price and air temperature the differences in price elasticities across fuels uncovered by this study have significant implications for energy taxation by namibian policy makers we do not find any significant cross price elasticities between different fuel types

the dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances we interpret fluctuations in gnp and unemployment as due to two types of disturbances disturbances that have a permanent effect on output and disturbances that do not we interpret the first as supply disturbances the second as demand disturbances demand disturbances have a hump shaped mirror image effect on output and unemployment the effect of supply disturbances on output increases steadily over time peaking after two years and reaching a plateau after five years

long and short run elasticities of residential electricity consumption in china a partial adjustment model with panel data abstractwhile it has stabilized in developed world the per capita residential electricity consumption rec in developing countries such as china is growing very rapidly and this trend is very likely to continue built upon a provincial level panel data we employ a partial adjustment model to investigate the future trend of rec in china and factors that affect it we estimate the income and price short term and long term elasticities for urban and rural china respectively and compare the results with rec studies in other countries or regions the findings provide useful information to understand how the rec would grow in china as household income increases and how effective that price could be as an intervention tool

inflation forecast targeting implementing and monitoring inflation targets abstract inflation targeting is shown to imply inflation forecast targeting the central bank s inflation forecast becomes an explicit intermediate target inflation forecast targeting simplifies both implementation and monitoring of monetary policy the weight on output stabilization determines how quickly the inflation forecast is adjusted towards the inflation target money growth or exchange rate targeting is generally inferior than inflation targeting and leads to higher inflation variability commitment to target rules may be better than commitment to instrument rules

electricity consumption and economic growth in burkina faso a cointegration analysis abstract this study empirically establishes the direction of causality between electricity consumption and economic growth in burkina faso for the period 1968 2003 the bounds test yields evidence of cointegration between electricity consumption gdp and capital formation when electricity consumption and gdp are used as dependent variable causality results indicate that there is no significant causal relationship between electricity consumption and investment estimates however detect in the long run a bidirectional causal relationship between electricity use and real gdp there is also evidence of a positive feedback causal relationship between gdp and capital formation burkina faso is therefore an energy dependent country it is also a country in which electricity consumption is growing with the level of income all of this shows that electricity is a significant factor in socio economic development in burkina faso as such energy policy must be implemented to ensure that electricity generates fewer potential negative impacts

can higher inflation reduce real interest rates in the long run this paper describes a simple general equilibrium model in which a permanent easing of monetary policy engineered via open market purchases may produce a permanent decrease in the real interest rate and a permanent increase in the inflation rate under somewhat stronger assumptions the nominal interest rate may also decline est ce qu une inflation plus forte peut reduire les taux d interet reels a long terme ce m6moire pr6sente un modele d 6quilibre g6n6ral simple dans lequel un adoucissement per manent de la politique mon6taire engendr6 par des op6rations d open market peut pro duire une chute permanente du taux d int6ret r6el et un accroissement permanent du taux d inflation dans le cadre de postulats plus contraignants le taux d interet nominal peut meme chuter

causal relationship between energy consumption and gdp revisited the case of korea 1970 1999 abstract causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is investigated applying a multivariate model of capital labor energy and gdp usual btu energy aggregate is substituted with a divisia aggregate in an attempt to mitigate aggregation bias to test for granger causality in the presence of cointegration among the variables we employ a vector error correction model rather than a vector autoregressive model empirical results for korea over the period 1970 1999 suggest a long run bidirectional causal relationship between energy and gdp and short run unidirectional causality running from energy to gdp the source of causation in the long run is found to be the error correction terms in both directions

inflation dynamics and the cost channel of monetary transmission evidence from vector autoregressions indicates that the impact of interest rate shocks on macroeconomic aggregates can substantially be affected by the so called cost channel of monetary transmission in this paper we apply a structural approach to examine the relevance of the cost channel for inflation dynamics in g7 countries we augment the so called hybrid new keynesian philips curve by letting firms costs for external funds rise with the short run nominal interest rate our estimates reveal that the magnitude of this cost channel strongly varies between countries including member countries of the emu in accordance with differences in their financial systems simulations of a new keynesian model further show that the presence of the cost channel substantially affects the transmission of monetary policy shocks in particular the inflation response

short and long run elasticities in us residential electricity demand a co integration approach abstract co integration techniques show promise in the analysis of short and long run effects of economic variables on energy use we use these techniques to develop an error correction model of annual us residential electricity demand we construct equipment stock indices and estimate the model for 1949 1993 our analysis suggests a structural shift in consumption during the 1960s we discuss reasons for this shift report the short and long run elasticities provide forecasts for 1994 1995 and compare the model s forecasts with other published forecasts

is energy consumption per capita broken stationary new evidence from regional based panels abstract for the first time a new panel unit root testing procedure developed by 51 carrion i silvestre et al 2005 breaking the panels an application to gdp per capita econometrics journal 8 159 175 is applied to re investigate the stationarity of energy consumption per capita for 7 regional panel sets covering the 1971 2002 period with structural breaks and cross sectional correlations introduced into the model it becomes clear that all regional based panels of energy consumption per capita are stationary the structural breakpoints identify the likely causes of major changes in energy consumption in the past the findings underscore the importance of accounting for exogenous shocks to a series and offer several important implications for policy makers and energy economists

tight money policies and inflation revisited in this paper we reconsider the link between tight money policies and inflation in the spirit of sargent and wallace s 1981 influential paper some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic a standard neoclassical model with capital bonds and return dominated currency is used the potential for tight money policies to be inflationary unpleasant arithmetic exists even when the real interest rate is below the growth rate of the economy additionally the likely observability of unpleasant arithmetic in real world economies is shown to depend crucially on the type of monetary policy rule that is used jel classification e52 e63 un autre coup d il sur la relation entre politiques monetaires restrictives et inflation ce memoire re examine la relation entre politiques monetaires restrictives et inflation dans l esprit du travail de sargent et wallace 1981 some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic les auteurs utilisent un modele neo classique standard avec capital debentures et une monnaie dont les rendements sont domines par ceux d autres reservoirs de valeur la possibilite que les politiques monetaires restrictives soient inflationnistes existe meme quand le taux d interet reel est plus petit que le taux de croissance de l economie de plus on montre que l obtention de ces resultats deplaisants dans les economies concretes depend fondamentalement du type de regle monetaire qu on utilise

is reserve ratio arithmetic more pleasant does it matter in a revenue neutral setting if the government changes the inflation tax base or the inflation tax rate we answer this question within the context of an overlapping generations model in which government bonds capital and cash reserves coexist we consider experiments that parallel those studied in sargent and wallace s unpleasant monetarist arithmetic the government uses seigniorage to service its debt choosing between changing either the money growth rate the inflation tax rate or the reserve requirement ratio the inflation tax base in the former case we obtain standard unpleasant arithmetic in the long run a permanent open market sale results in higher money growth and higher long run inflation somewhat surprisingly it turns out that for a given money growth rate lower reserve requirements fund the government s interest expense associated with the lower reserve requirements is lower long run inflation and higher welfare compared with the money growth case the broad message is that reserve ratio arithmetic can be pleasant even when money growth arithmetic is not

house prices borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle i develop a general equilibrium model with sticky prices credit constraints nominal loans and asset prices changes in asset prices modify agents borrowing capacity through collateral value changes in nominal prices affect real repayments through debt deflation monetary policy shocks move asset and nominal prices in the same direction and are amplified and propagated over time the financial accelerator is not constant across shocks nominal debt stabilises supply shocks making the economy less volatile when the central bank controls the interest rate i discuss the role of equity debt indexation and household and firm leverage in the propagation mechanism finally i find that monetary policy should not target asset prices as a means of reducing output and inflation volatility

output and substitution elasticities of energy and implications for renewable energy expansion in the ecowas region abstract this study estimates output and substitution elasticities of renewable energy and nonrenewable energy for the economic community of west african states ecowas and discusses implications for expanding the former the results show that nonrenewable energy promises greater benefits for ecowas economic transition with output elasticities averaging between 0 052 0 579 and 0 055 to 0 223 for nonrenewable energy and renewable energy respectively overall estimated technological progress is low 0 5 to 2 6 the bulk coming from input efficiency substitution elasticities 0 02 0 94 suggest potential for switching towards renewable energy notwithstanding scale economics and sitting problems inherent in renewable power generation challenge the opportunities for energy substitution a sustainable policy solution therefore appears to be one favoring scaled and efficient electricity generation from fossil energy in the short run with a gradual switch towards renewable power in the long run in general the applied model provides insights that energy efficiency enhances sustainable growth by propelling technological advancement especially when technical change is scale biased and factor augmenting the study also provides insights that impacts of exogenous shocks to inputs are temporary and hence do not jeopardize efforts aimed at scaling output through increased and efficient use of labor capital and energy especially nonrenewable energy

change in consumer sensitivity to electricity prices in response to retail deregulation a panel empirical analysis of the residential demand for electricity in the united states abstract about ten years have passed since the deregulation of the u s retail electricity market and it is now generally accepted that the available data is adequate to quantitatively assess and compare conditions before and after deregulation this study therefore estimates the changes in price elasticity in the residential electricity market to examine the changes if any in household sensitivity as a result of retail electricity market deregulation policies to residential electricity rates specifically six types of panel data are prepared based on three cross sections all states except for alaska and hawaii and the district of columbia deregulated states and non deregulated states and two time series the period before deregulation and the period after deregulation the panel empirical analysis techniques are used to determine whether or not the variables are stationary and to estimate price elasticity we find that there is no substantial difference in the price elasticity between deregulated and non deregulated states for both periods before deregulation and after deregulation thus it can be said that the deregulation of the retail electricity market has not made consumers more sensitive to electricity rates and that retail deregulation policies are not the cause of price elasticity differences between deregulated and non deregulated states

energy growth conundrum in energy exporting and importing countries evidence from heterogeneous panel methods robust to cross sectional dependence abstract this article uses the panel methods for energy exporting and importing countries that discuss the heterogeneity and cross sectional dependence in investigating the linkages between energy consumption and economic growth the findings of the study suggest that the energy consumption is an important input not only in the energy importing but also in energy exporting countries furthermore the results of the present paper suggest that the policy options should be different for the different countries in the back drop of heterogeneous slope coefficients

energy models for demand forecasting a review abstract energy is vital for sustainable development of any nation be it social economic or environment in the past decade energy consumption has increased exponentially globally energy management is crucial for the future economic prosperity and environmental security energy is linked to industrial production agricultural output health access to water population education quality of life etc energy demand management is required for proper allocation of the available resources during the last decade several new techniques are being used for energy demand management to accurately predict the future energy needs in this paper an attempt is made to review the various energy demand forecasting models traditional methods such as time series regression econometric arima as well as soft computing techniques such as fuzzy logic genetic algorithm and neural networks are being extensively used for demand side management support vector regression ant colony and particle swarm optimization are new techniques being adopted for energy demand forecasting bottom up models such as markal and leap are also being used at the national and regional level for energy demand management

monetary policy arithmetic reconciling theory with evidence empirical evidence indicates that in countries with low inflation rates a permanent decrease in inflation rate either has no impact on capital stock and output superneutrality or causes them to fall moderately existing budget arithmetic models of monetary policy cannot deliver superneutrality in this paper we conduct a budget arithmetic analysis of monetary policy using a money demand specification money in the utility function that is new to this literature we find that one simple assumption about utility from money delivers superneutrality while a more general assumption delivers departures from superneutrality in the direction consistent with the evidence jel classification e60 e13

can african countries efficiently build their economies on renewable energy abstract the translog production model is estimated to provide insights on the effectiveness of renewable energy for africa the analysis shows that capital labor renewable energy and nonrenewable energy drive output in african countries with renewable energy being a higher driver of growth than the conventional fossil fuels over the sample period this finding is reflective of the fact that renewable sources like wind hydro and solar account for a greater share of power generation in most african countries output elasticities computed for both energy types reaffirm the results and suggest that eastern and central african countries are more renewable energy dependent than the other three regions in addition technological progress is driven mainly by the efficiency with which various factors and energy inputs are used while africa has great potential of facing out conventional fossil energy the discussion provided in this study suggests that such transition is limited in practice due to issues of scale economics and sitting problems

impulse response analysis of cointegrated systems abstract impulse response or dynamic multiplier analysis of vector autoregressive systems with cointegrated variables is considered the asymptotic distribution of the responses estimated with johansen s 1988 maximum likelihood procedure is derived the results are illustrated with an analysis of a west german money demand system the investigation shows that a direct interpretation of the cointegration relations may be difficult or misleading thereby the virtue of impulse response analysis for applied work is illustrated

energy consumption and gdp causality a three step analysis for emerging european countries abstract the established european targets should play a leading role in the complex economic process of energy consumption and the emerging countries have to consider their implications for adjusting the energy policies at national level this paper develops investigations on the causality relationship between energy consumption and gdp in the context of emerging european countries covering the period 1980 2013 this research covers the limits identified by previous researchers by detailing the energy consumption by sources and by referring to five emerging countries in europe unlike most of the previous studies it has a double approach long and short run bidirectional relationships a detailed analysis on the impact of economic growth on the energy consumption by country is conducted in order to contribute to the enrichment of the research field towards this objective a three step analysis is performed stationarity cointegration and causality tests are considered the empirical study shows mixed results there is a balance in confirming conservation growth and neutrality hypotheses in some specific cases results imply that energy consumption and economic growth are jointly determined however a comparative analysis for different significance levels draws attention on the differences in judgment of results for this type of studies discussions on the results in terms of causality are conducted in order to identify future trends for research

energy conservation policies growth and trade performance evidence of feedback hypothesis in pakistan this study investigates the relationship between energy consumption and trade openness in pakistan by using the annual time series data for the period of 1973 2011 our main results show i the presence of long run link between energy consumption and trade performance ii positive impact of gross domestic product exports and imports on energy consumption iii bidirectional causal relationship between exports and energy consumption and also be tween imports and energy demand and iv bidirectional causality between gross domestic product and energy consumption points to the presence of feedback hypothesis in pakistan we therefore note that energy conservation policies will reduce the trade performance which in turn leads to the decline in economic growth in pakistan the present study may guide policymakers in formulating a conclusive energy and trade policies for sustainable growth for long span of time

the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in the asean countries abstract this paper investigates the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth among the association of south east asian nations asean 4 members namely indonesia malaysia singapore and thailand using modern time series techniques for the period 1971 2002 the results indicate that there is a bi directional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth in malaysia and singapore this means that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further electricity consumption in the two countries however uni directional causality runs from economic growth to electricity consumption in indonesia and thailand without any feedback effect thus electricity conservation policies can be initiated without deteriorating economic side effects in the two countries

reserve requirements and optimal seigniorage abstract this note presents a model of optimizing agents who chose to hold deposits at financial intermediaries which are required to hold fractional reserves of fiat money when the stock of fiat money is expanded the reserve requirement functions as a tax on deposits the combination of reserve requirements and inflation results in a lower steady state utility than a direct tax on deposits the optimal monetary policy when reserves are required is to minimize reserve requirements and inflate without limit the stock of fiat money

the role of economic theory in modelling the long run this argues for a closer link between the modelling of the long run relations in applied economics and the intertemporal equilibrium notion from economic theory this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

optimal interest rate smoothing this paper considers the desirability of the observed tendency of central banks to adjust interest rates only gradually in response to changes in economic conditions it shows in the context of a simple model of optimizing private sector behaviour that assignment of an interest rate smoothing objective to the central bank may be desirable even when reduction of the magnitude of interest rate changes is not a social objective in itself this is because a response of policy to irrelevant lagged variables may be desirable owing to the way it steers private sector expectations of future policy

electricity consumption and economic growth in transition countries a revisit using bootstrap panel granger causality analysis abstract the purpose of this paper is to revisit the granger causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth for 15 transition economies for the period 1975 2010 using a bootstrap panel causality approach that allows for both cross sectional dependency and for heterogeneity across countries applying this approach we found a unidirectional causality running from electricity consumption to economic growth only in belarus and bulgaria from economic growth to electricity consumption in the czech republic latvia lithuania and the russian federation bidirectional causality only in ukraine while no granger causality in any direction in albania macedonia moldova poland romania serbia slovak republic and slovenia these results show that there is a limited support for the electricity led growth hypothesis nevertheless these different findings provide important implications for energy strategies and policies for transition countries

electricity demand and conservation potential in the chinese nonmetallic mineral products industry newhuadu business school research fund ministry of education foundation 10jzd0018 10jbg013 china sustainable energy program g 1103 13921 national social science foundation 09zd050

estimation of tourism induced electricity consumption the case study of balearics islands spain tourism has started to be acknowledged as a significant contributor to the increase in environmental externalities especially to climate change various studies have started to estimate and compute the role of the different tourism sectors contributions to greenhouse gas ghg emissions these estimations have been made from a sectoral perspective assessing the contribution of air transport the accommodation sector or other tourism related economic sectors however in order to evaluate the impact of this sector on energy use the approaches used in the literature consider tourism in its disaggregated way this paper assesses the electricity demand pattern and investigates the aggregated contribution of tourism to electricity consumption using the case study of the balearic islands spain using a conventional daily electricity demand model including data for daily stocks of tourists the impact of the different population growth rate scenarios on electricity loads is also investigated the results show that in terms of electricity consumption tourism cannot be considered a very energy intensive sector

optimal monetary policy with the cost channel in the standard new keynesian framework an optimizing policy maker does not face a trade off between stabilizing the inflation rate and stabilizing the gap between actual output and output under flexible prices an ad hoc exogenous cost push shock is typically added to the inflation equation to generate a meaningful policy problem in this paper we show that a cost push shock arises endogenously when a cost channel for monetary policy is introduced into the new keynesian model a cost channel is present when firms marginal cost depends directly on the nominal rate of interest besides providing empirical evidence for a cost channel we explore its implications for optimal monetary policy we show that its presence alters the optimal policy problem in important ways for example both the output gap and inflation are allowed to fluctuate in response to productivity and demand shocks under optimal monetary policy

are shocks to energy consumption permanent or temporary evidence from 182 countries this article applies univariate and panel data unit root tests to annual panel data for 182 countries over the period 1979 2000 to examine the stationarity properties of per capita energy consumption the univariate unit root test can only reject the unit root null for 56 countries or 31 of the sample at the 10 level or better however univariate unit root tests have low power with short spans of data and therefore failure to reject the unit root null should be treated with caution when we apply the panel data unit root test we find overwhelming evidence that energy consumption is stationary we discuss the policy implications of these findings and offer suggestions for future research

residential energy demand in the united states analysis using static and dynamic approaches abstract the residential sector is the main consumer of energy in the united states and reducing energy consumption is an important goal for policymakers in each state to know how reducing residential energy demand could be achieved this study develops a set of static and dynamic models to investigate and identify the impact of socio economic and demographic characteristics building age energy prices and weather conditions on residential energy demand at the state level from 2005 to 2013 next this study proposes two alternative scenarios to reduce residential energy demand based on the most precise model for every 10 000 dollars of per capita income in each state 1 increasing residential electricity price by 1 cent per kw h and 2 decreasing average building age by 1 in the first scenario the findings indicate that annual residential electricity demand would decrease by 7 3 on average with the highest reductions in washington 11 9 north dakota 10 9 and idaho 9 7 in the second scenario residential gas demand would decrease by an average of 15 8 annually with the highest reduction in connecticut 33 2 followed by new york 33 0 and massachusetts 30 7 these proposed scenarios assist policymakers in optimizing decisions and investments to reduce residential energy consumption

residential electricity consumption in seattle abstract recent empirical research for different regions of the united states indicates that residential electricity may be an inferior good whose consumption is negatively correlated with income that is a provocative result that runs counter to what many earlier econometric studies indicate given that it makes sense to examine how electricity consumption behaves in different regional service areas even if residential electricity is an inferior good whose usage declines as income rises there is no guarantee that this will be the case across all service areas this study examines residential electricity consumption for seattle washington the largest metropolitan economy in the northwestern region of the united states results from a dynamic error correction modeling approach indicate that residential electricity consumption reacts in statistically significant manners to changes in real price real income and cold weather in the short run residential electricity is a normal good in this metropolitan economy in the long run residential electricity appears to be an inferior good in seattle all else equal whenever real per capita income growth exceeds 1 2 per capita residential electricity usage declines in seattle

an international literature survey on energy economic growth nexus evidence from country specific studies in this paper an extensive review of the rapidly growing in the literature on the nexus between economic growth and four types of energy consumption total energy consumption electricity consumption nuclear consumption and renewable consumption the various hypotheses associated with the causal interaction between these variables along with a survey of the empirical literature are also discussed the survey focuses on country coverage periods modeling techniques and empirical conclusions a general observation from these studies that results are found to be sensitive to methodology and type of energy considered the empirical results for the specific countries surveyed show that i for energy consumption growth nexus 29 supported the growth hypothesis 27 the feedback hypothesis 23 the conservation hypothesis and 21 the neutrality hypothesis ii for the electricity consumption growth nexus 40 supported the growth hypothesis 33 the feedback hypothesis and 27 conservation hypothesis iii for the nuclear consumption growth nexus 60 supported the neutrality hypothesis and 40 the growth hypothesis and iv for the renewable consumption growth nexus 40 supported the neutrality hypothesis 40 the conservation hypothesis and 20 the growth hypothesis these mixed results may be attributed to the different used data selected variables and econometric approaches undertaken

literature survey on the relationships between energy environment and economic growth abstract the aim of this study is to exhibit an exhaustive survey which is related to the great flight of the literature of energy environment growth nexus at the individual and regional scale studies covering the period from 1978 to 2014 the survey takes into consideration the sample country region etc periods covering econometric strategies and conclusions our survey is based on the causality direction among i the energy use variables electricity nuclear renewable and non renewable and output growth ii between economic growth and environment and between the three variables at the same time globally these surveys provide paradoxical and not conclusive results which energy consumption can boost economic growth through the productivity enhancement and it can boost also the environmental damages through the enhancement of pollutant emissions our survey sheds more the lights on the energy environment growth literature by giving an extensive listing 1978 2014 of these causal linkages among the energy use variables environment and economic growth for both individual and collective cases there is a unanimous consensus about the importance of dealing with such dynamic relationship which is seems to be a cornerstone element in setting any ambition strategies energy ecological and economics

energy income causality in oecd countries revisited the key role of capital stock abstract this paper applies a recent advance in panel analysis to estimate the panel cointegration and panel vector error correction models for a set of 22 oecd countries using annual data covering the period 1960 2001 we investigate the relationship between energy consumption and income using an aggregate production function and controlling for the capital stock as well as by exploring the dynamic directions of the causality among these three variables we firstly obtain solid and convincing evidence of a fairly strong long run equilibrium relationship among them secondly it is found that the capital stock is much more productive than energy consumption third it is observed that neglecting the impact of the capital stock on income tends to overestimate the effect of energy consumption finally the panel causality test shows bi directional causal linkages exist among energy consumption the capital stock and economic growth overall the findings reveal that the capital stock plays a critical role in realizing the dynamic relationship between energy and income

some even more unpleasant monetarist arithmetic does monetizing a deficit always result in a higher rate of inflation than bond financing the same deficit t j sargent and n wallace 1981 produced conditions under which the answer was negative unpleasant monetarist arithmetic subsequent authors have challenged the empirical validity of these conditions the authors develop a model similar to that of sargent and wallace and modify it to allow for financial intermediation in the presence of reserve requirements unpleasant arithmetic arises even when the real rate of growth exceeds the real return on bonds moreover under empirically plausible restrictions there exists a unique equilibrium no laffer curve considerations arise

an empirical analysis of electricity consumption in cyprus abstract the paper presents the first empirical analysis of electricity consumption in cyprus using annual data from 1960 to 2004 we have examined electricity use in the residential and the services sectors which are the fastest growing electricity consumers in the island and its interaction with income prices and the weather the analysis was performed with the aid of time series analysis techniques such as unit root tests with and without a structural break in levels cointegration tests vector error correction models granger causality tests and impulse response functions results show long term elasticities of electricity use above unity for income and of the order of 0 3 to 0 4 for prices in the short term electricity consumption is rather inelastic mostly affected by weather fluctuations granger causality tests confirm exogeneity of electricity prices and bidirectional causality between residential electricity consumption and private income the commercial sector is less elastic and reverts faster to equilibrium than the residential sector despite the relatively small sample size results reported here are quite robust and can be used for forecasts and policy analyses

monetary policy arithmetic for a deflationary economy abstract this paper characterizes general properties of an economy that experiences deflation by investigating the long run government budget constraint a sufficient condition for deflation in an economy under a balanced budget is that the nominal interest rate is below the output growth rate with a primary deficit deflation occurs in a liquidity trap if the government is heavily in debt simple budget arithmetic reveals that it is never possible to finance a negative currency seigniorage by rolling over the public debt

measuring the reaction of monetary policy to the stock market movements in the stock market can have a significant impact on the macroeconomy and are therefore likely to be an important factor in the determination of monetary policy however little is known about the magnitude of the federal reserve s reaction to the stock market in part because the simultaneous response of equity prices to interest rates makes it difficult to estimate this paper uses an identification technique based on the heteroskedasticity of stock market returns to measure the reaction of monetary policy to the stock market we find a significant policy response with a 5 percent rise fall in the s p 500 index increasing the likelihood of a 25 basis point tightening easing by about a half

the relationship between energy consumption energy prices and economic growth time series evidence from asian developing countries this paper estimates the causal relationships between energy consumption and income for india indonesia the philippines and thailand using cointegration and error correction modelling techniques the results indicate that in the short run unidirectional granger causality runs from energy to income for india and indonesia while bidirectional granger causality runs from energy to income for thailand and the philippines in the case of thailand and the philippines energy income and prices are mutually causal the study results do not support the view that energy and income are neutral with respect to each other with the exception of indonesia and india where neutrality is observed in the short run c 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved jel classifications c22 q43 q48

energy demand substitution and environmental taxation an econometric analysis of eight subsectors of the danish economy abstract this research contains an econometric analysis of energy demand in trade and industry which allows for substitution between electricity and other energy carriers when relative prices change the presence of substitution suggests that taxation can be a means of changing the energy input mix in a more environmental friendly direction for eight subsectors of the danish economy time series 1966 2011 are modeled by means of partial cointegrated vars long run demand relations are identified for all subsectors and robust price elasticities are supported in five cases the results are used in a small impulse response experiment which suggests a potential for taxation to induce substitution of electricity for fossil based energy

estimating residential demand for electricity in the united states 1965 2006 abstract this paper examines the residential demand for electricity in the us economy as a function of the per capita income the price of electricity the price of oil for heating purposes the weather conditions and the stock of occupied housing over the period 1965 2006 this paper has two novelties first the occupied stock of houses as a proxy for the stock of electrical appliances and second the identification of a possible equilibrium relationship among the variables is ascertained through the recently advanced ardl approach to cointegration our empirical findings give support to a stable long run relationship implying also short run and long run elasticities whose size and sign are comparable to other similar studies

house prices and stock prices different roles in the us monetary transmission mechanism we analyze the role of house prices and stock prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the us using a structural vector autoregressive model if we allow the interest rate and asset prices to react simultaneously to news we find different roles for house prices and stock prices in the monetary transmission mechanism following a contractionary monetary policy shock stock prices fall immediately while the response in house prices is more gradual regarding the systematic response in monetary policy stock prices play a more important role than house prices as a consequence house prices contribute more than stock prices to fluctuations in gross domestic product and inflation

towards a household model of uk domestic energy demand abstract most existing analyses of domestic energy demand in the uk are conducted at the aggregate level the paper argues the case for modelling at the level of the individual household some results are presented from a microeconometric model estimated using microdata on some 90 000 uk households separate equations are estimated for gas demand electricity demand for households with a gas supply and electricity demand for those without price and income elasticities are presented these show considerable variation with household characteristics

identifying monetary policy shocks with changes in open market operations abstract in this paper we reexamine the effects of monetary policy shocks by exploiting the information contained in open market operations a sticky price model is developed where money is the counterpart of securities deposited at the central bank the model s solution reveals that a rise in central bank holdings of open market securities can be interpreted as a monetary expansion estimates of vector autoregressions for us data are further provided showing that reactions to an unanticipated rise in open market securities are consistent with common priors about a monetary expansion i e a decline in the federal funds rate a rise in output and inertia in price responses compared to federal funds rate shocks prices do not exhibit a puzzling behavior and a larger fraction of the gdp forecast error variance can be attributed to open market shocks however the explanatory power of the latter has decreased since federal funds rate targets have been announced

will disruptions in opec oil supply have permanent impact on the global oil market abstract opec has long been a major stakeholder and strong player in the global energy market especially in the petroleum sub sector in recent time however there have been questions over the influence of opec in the sub sector due to changing petroleum production landscape specifically as a result of the discovery of unconventional energy resources in north america and emergence of non opec petroleum producing and exporting countries this development could have significant effect on the global energy market and the macro economy of opec member countries the stationarity or otherwise of opec oil production supply has important implications for determining whether fluctuations in opec market supply has temporary or permanent effect using the zivot andrews structural break stationarity test and production data of opec member countries from 1980 to 2011 this paper investigates whether fluctuations in opec market supply has temporary or permanent effect the empirical analysis shows that for only 5 opec members nigeria saudi arabia ecuador kuwait and uae is the hypothesis of unit root rejected this implies that for the five 5 opec members the effects of shocks to oil production are not permanent and future pattern of oil production can be predicted following past trend the practical implication of this finding is that opec production quota strategy may not have long term impact on the global oil market thus the cartel needs to improve oil production policy coordination among members and ensure strict adherence to production quota while also stressing the need for diversification in member countries

energy and output dynamics in bangladesh the relationship between energy consumption and output is still ambiguous in the existing literature the economy of bangladesh having spectacular output growth and rising energy demand as well as energy efficiency in recent decades can be an ideal case for examining energy output dynamics we find that while fluctuations in energy consumption do not affect output fluctuations movements in output inversely affect movements in energy use the results of granger causality tests in this respect are consistent with those of innovative accounting that includes variance decompositions and impulse responses autoregressive distributed lag models also suggest a role of output in bangladesh s energy use hence the findings of this study have policy implications for other developing nations where measures for energy conservation and efficiency can be relevant in policymaking