progressive taxation and income inequality in dynamic competitive equilibrium abstract this paper establishes the existence of a non degenerate distribution of income in a simple dynamic economy when agents who are heterogeneous in their rates of impatience face a progressive tax system in this dynamic setting income inequality can vary positively with the degree of tax progressivity moreover the inherent heterogeneity in agents behavior can explain why measures of inequality such as the standard deviation of income or atkinson s gini tend to be dynamically much more sluggish than aggregate measures such as total income finally the adjustment in the degree of inequality resulting from an exogenous change in tax policy may take some time before becoming effective this result also arises from agents asymmetric responses to policy changes

toward a unified theory of the csp cfp link this article proposes a unified theory of the relationship between corporate social performance csp and corporate financial performance cfp the theory provides a framework for rationalizing the various and contradictory findings in past empirical research the theory is based on the parallels between the business and csr domains and thus draws on models from economics

premia for correlated default risk abstract using data on corporate default experience in the u s and market rates of cdx index and tranche swaps of various maturities we estimate reduced form models of correlated default timing in the cdx high yield and investment grade portfolios under actual and risk neutral probabilities the striking contrast between the estimated processes followed by the actual and risk neutral arrival intensities of defaults and between the parameters governing the actual and risk neutral dynamics of the risk neutral intensities indicates the presence of substantial default risk premia in cdx swap market rates the effects of risk premia on swap rates covary strongly across maturities and depend on general stock market volatility and several measures of credit spreads large moves in the effects of these premia on swap rates have natural interpretations in terms of economic and financial market developments during the sample period april 2004 to october 2007 our results suggest that a large portion of the movements in cdx swap market rates observed during the sample period may be caused by changing attitudes toward correlated default risk rather than changes in the economic factors affecting the actual risk of clustered defaults which ultimately governs swap payoffs

reforming taxes and raising revenue part of the fiscal solution this paper reviews the fiscal outlook in the united states discusses why revenue increases are a critical aspect of any enduring fiscal solution and outlines constructive policies to reform the tax system and simultaneously raise revenues in particular this paper highlights the merits of curtailing income tax expenditures introducing a value added tax and imposing levies on consumption and production of non renewable energy copyright 2011 oxford university press

evaluating interval forecasts a complete theory for evaluating interval forecasts has not been worked out to date most of the literature implicitly assumes homoskedastic errors even when this is clearly violated and proceed by merely testing for correct unconditional coverage consequently i set out to build a consistent framework for conditional interval forecast evaluation which is crucial when higher order moment dynamics are present the new methodology is demonstrated in an application to the exchange rate forecasting procedures advocated in risk management

dynamic factor models with macro frailty and industry effects for u s default counts the credit crisis of 2008 we develop a high dimensional nonlinear and non gaussian dynamic factor model for the decomposition of systematic default risk conditions into latent components for 1 macroeconomic financial risk 2 autonomous default dynamics frailty and 3 industry specific effects we analyze discrete u s corporate default counts together with macroeconomic and financial variables in one unifying framework we find that approximately 35 of default rate variation is due to systematic and industry factors approximately one third of this systematic variation is captured by the macroeconomic and financial factors the remainder is captured by frailty 40 and industry 25 effects the default specific effects are particularly relevant before and during times of financial turbulence we detect a build up of systematic risk over the period preceding the 2008 credit crisis this article has online supplementary material

exploring the sources of default clustering abstract we study the sources of corporate default clustering in the united states we reject the hypothesis that firms default times are correlated only because their conditional default rates depend on observable and latent systematic factors by contrast we find strong evidence that contagion through which the default by one firm has a direct impact on the health of other firms is a significant clustering source the amount of clustering that cannot be explained by contagion and firms exposure to observable and latent systematic factors is insignificant our results have important implications for the pricing and management of correlated default risk

can progressive taxation account for cross country variation in labor supply abstract the difference between average hours worked in the us and average hours worked in continental european countries has been increasing since the early 1970s to explain this phenomenon this paper develops an endogenous growth model with two key properties agents are heterogeneous in their rates of time preference and labor skills and the model incorporates progressive income taxes the model is calibrated to us and german data for the periods 1971 1974 and 1986 1989 our findings suggest that the degree of progressivity is a major factor in explaining the patterns of the us and german labor supply over time predictions of the model also match the distributional trends in both countries during this time period

unfunded liabilities and uncertain fiscal financing we develop a rational expectations framework to study the consequences of alternative means to resolve the unfunded liabilities problem the projected exponential growth in federal social security medicare and medicaid spending with no known plan for financing the transfers resolution requires specifying a probability distribution for how and when monetary and fiscal policies will change as the economy evolves through the 21st century beliefs based on that distribution determine the existence of and the nature of equilibrium we consider policies that in expectation combine reaching a fiscal limit some distorting taxation modest inflation and some reneging on the government s promised transfers in the equilibrium inflation targeting monetary policy and debt targeting tax policy cannot anchor expectations on those target variables expectational effects are always present but need not have large impacts on inflation and interest rates in the short and medium runs in the economy s stationary distribution the capital stock may grow or shrink and substantial probability falls on little or no reneging

a decade s debate on the nexus between corporate social and corporate financial performance a critical review of empirical studies 2002 2011 abstract theoretical discussions and empirical studies on the nexus between corporate social responsibility corporate social performance and corporate financial performance have never ceased since the origin of the concepts the development trajectories of such studies should be articulated with a view to informing practical corporate social responsibility applications and theoretical studies in the future this paper presents a critical review of relevant empirical research articles on the nexus between corporate social performance and corporate financial performance published during the ten year period from 2002 to 2011 using mixed methods of content analyses and statistical analyses the paper reviews 84 empirical studies of this kind published during the period the results indicate that despite the enormous amount of previous studies the corporate social performance and corporate financial performance nexus is a line of inquiry that remains inconclusive the pattern of corporate social performance corporate financial performance relationship research in the decade examined has shifted towards exploring the linkages between specific aspects of the two constructs the positive relationships between these specific aspects in dual directions are confirmed by most of the studies examined in this paper the paper also examines the impact of time and space change on the corporate social performance corporate financial performance nexus the findings show that researchers have gradually recognized that the relationship is not static but changes over time furthermore the paper finds that corporate social responsibility has been increasingly debated in developing countries and in specified industrial settings the review concludes that to explore the corporate social performance corporate financial performance nexus by contextualizing it in a specified community and or examine its dynamics is a promising research area that can yield significant academic and practical values

an empirical model of labor supply in a life cycle setting this paper formulates and estimates a structural intertemporal model of labor supply using theoretical characterizations derived from an economic model of lifetime behavior a two step empirical analysis yields estimates of intertemporal and uncompensated substitution effects which provide the information needed to predict the response of hours of work to life cycle wage growth and shifts in the lifetime wage path

tax progressivity and tax incidence of the rich and the poor with the labor supply being flexible a revenue neutral increase in the tax progressivity decreases the tax incidence of the rich and increases the tax incidence of the poor if the tax scheme is highly progressive

the curvilinear relationship between corporate social performance and corporate financial performance evidence from the international construction industry abstract the intellectual debate concerning the nexus between corporate social performance csp and corporate financial performance cfp is incessant in recent years the debate has explored more dynamic links one of which is the curvilinear relationship between the two constructs it argues that the relationship between csp and cfp can be better captured by a u shape at a low level of csp companies are not able to cultivate social activities to achieve tangible financial benefits but after passing an inflection point csp will gradually turn into financial benefits that can offset the costs involved this research empirically tests the curvilinear relationship between csp and cfp in the context of the international construction industry using a panel data set of 30 international construction companies and 210 firm year observations over the sample period from 2007 to 2013 the curvilinear relationship of csp on return on assets and earnings per share as specific cfp measures is strongly supported this empirical finding demonstrates an opportunity for executives of international construction companies to capitalize on their social responsibility efforts and create a win win situation between csp and cfp

earnings test non actuarial adjustments and flexible retirement abstract in response to the challenges of increasing longevity many countries have introduced flexibility reforms for their public pension systems a key measure of these reforms is the abolishment of earnings tests it is claimed that these reforms increase labor supply and therefore the financial sustainability of pension systems we build a simulation model to show that abolishing an earnings test may indeed create more labor supply but simultaneously reduce the average claiming age when adjustments remain less than actuarial as is the case in most european pension systems flexibility reforms may therefore worsen rather than improve the sustainability of public pension systems

growth effects of flat rate taxes recent estimates of the potential growth effects of tax reform vary wildly ranging from zero to eight percentage points using an endogenous growth model we assess which model features and parameter values are important for determining the quantitative impact of tax reform we find that the critical parameters are factor shares depreciation rates the elasticity of intertemporal substitution and the elasticity of labor supply the elasticities of substitution in production on the other hand are relatively unimportant the quantitative estimates in several recent papers are compared with each other and with some of the evidence from u s experience we find that robert lucas s conclusion that tax reform would have little or no effect on the u s growth rate is theoretically robust and consistent with the evidence

economic effects of fundamental tax reform brookings institution the tax system profoundly affects countless aspects of private behavior it is a powerful policy influence on the distribution of income and it is the one aspect of government that almost every citizen cannot avoid with tax reform high on the political agenda this book brings together studies of leading tax economists and lawyers to assess the various reform proposals and examine the effects of tax reform in several distinct areas together these studies and comments on them present a balanced evaluation of professional opinion on the issues that will be critical in the tax reform debate the book addresses annual and lifetime distributional effects saving investment transitional problems simplification home ownership and housing prices charitable groups international taxation financial intermediaries and insurance labor supply and health insurance

variable selection and corporate bankruptcy forecasts abstract we investigate the relative importance of various bankruptcy predictors commonly used in the existing literature by applying a variable selection technique the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator lasso to a comprehensive bankruptcy database over the 1980 2009 period lasso admits the majority of campbell et al 2008 predictive variables into the bankruptcy forecast model interestingly by contrast with recent studies some financial ratios constructed from only accounting data also contain significant incremental information about future default risk and their importance relative to that of market based variables in bankruptcy forecasts increases with prediction horizons moreover lasso selected variables have superior out of sample predictive power and outperform 1 those advocated by campbell et al 2008 and 2 the distance to default from merton s 1974 structural model

the relationship between disclosures of corporate social performance and financial performance evidences from gri reports in manufacturing industry whether the corporate social performance affects the financial performance is still unclear in many manufacturing companies we commonly expect on one side that profitable corporations have stronger incentives to reveal information on the social performance in order to improve their publicity on the other hand companies may face the fear of rising costs due to corporate social responsibility csr activities with increasing concerns of csr it is timely to investigate the relationship between the disclosure of corporate social performance and the financial performance in this paper with the above study objective we use global reporting initiative gri reports of 75 sample companies collect evidences by applying the method of structured content analysis of the cases and attempt to identify this relationship the corporate social performance is measured by the indicators according to the gri guidelines i e within the categories of labor practices and decent work human rights society as well as product responsibility financial performance is measured by return on equity sales growth and cash flow sales ratio using statistical evaluation methods our results indicate that the categories of human rights society as well as product responsibility display a significant and positive correlation with the return on equity same conclusion also holds for many csr indicators nevertheless when examining the csr practices across different manufacturing sectors we have not observed significant differences the study results are important for understanding the development and implementation of csr practices in the manufacturing industry

accounting for endogeneity and the dynamics of corporate social corporate financial performance relationship abstract this paper examines the endogeneity problem in studies dealing with corporate social performance and financial performance relationship since randomized controlled experiments in the business research field are often unfeasible researchers rely mostly on observational data to make claims about doing good doing well arguments in response to several strong calls for additional well crafted empirical research that address endogeneity we revisit the csp cfp relationship in the airline industry to understand how endogeneity arises and how to control for it in studies based on observational panel data we exploit various approaches such as ols fixed effects fixed effects iv 2sls dynamic system gmm and gls estimators we show the appropriateness behind the use of the dynamic system gmm estimator and its benefits over the fixed effects estimator in addition we demonstrate that results in models that do not account for endogeneity lead to inflated estimations misleading interpretations and wrong theoretical propositions about the dynamic nature of csp cfp relationship

modeling financial contagion using mutually exciting jump processes we propose a model to capture the dynamics of asset returns with periods of crises that are characterized by contagion in the model a jump in one region of the world increases the intensity of jumps both in the same region self excitation as well as in other regions cross excitation generating episodes of highly clustered jumps across world markets that mimic the observed features of the data we develop and implement moment based estimation and testing procedures for this model the estimates provide evidence of self excitation both in the us and the other world markets and of asymmetric cross excitation with the us market typically having more influence on the jump intensity of other markets than the reverse we propose filtered values of the jump intensities as a measure of market stress and examine their out of sample forecasting abilities

the effects of progressive taxation on labor supply when hours and wages are jointly determined this paper extends a standard intertemporal labor supply model to account for progressive taxation as well as the joint determination of hourly wages and hours worked we show that these two factors can have implications for both estimating labor supply elasticities as well as for using these elasticities in tax analysis failure to account for wage hours ties and progressive taxation may cause the hours response to marginal tax rate changes to be understated by 5 to 30 percent for men

social security and individual welfare precautionary saving borrowing constraints and the payroll tax this paper examines the impact of social security on national saving and individual welfare in the presence of realistic capital market imperfections market failure in the private provision of annuities and restrictions on borrowing against anticipated future wages the introduction of social security increases lifetime welfare and reduces national saving if borrowing restrictions are absent however the increase in individual welfare is reduced and in some cases eliminated when borrowing constraints are taken into consideration the substantial difference suggests the importance of reexamining the proportional payroll tax finance of social security copyright 1987 by american economic association

unobserved systematic risk factor and default prediction abstract we conduct a thorough analysis on the role played by the unobserved systematic risk factor in default prediction we find that this latent factor outweighs the observed systematic risk factors and can substantially improve the in sample predictive accuracy at the firm rating group and aggregate levels thus it might be helpful to include the unobserved systematic risk factor when simulating portfolio credit losses however we also find that this factor only marginally improves out of sample model performance therefore although the models we investigated all show reasonably good ability to rank order firms by default risk accurate prediction of default rate remains challenging even when the unobserved systematic risk factor is considered

cyclicality in losses on bank loans based on unique data we show that macro variables the default rate and loss given default of bank loans share common cyclical components the innovation in our model is the distinction between loans with either severe or mild losses the variation in the proportion of these two types drives the cyclic behavior of the loss given default and constitutes the links with the default rate and macro variables these links vary according to loan and borrower characteristics during downturns the proportion of defaults with severe losses increases but the distribution of losses conditional on their being mild or severe does not change although loans are monitored more closely than bonds and are more senior the cyclical variation in their losses resembles those for bonds albeit around a lower average level this variation leads to an increase in the capital reserves required for loan portfolios

modeling the loss distribution in this paper we focus on modeling and predicting the loss distribution for credit risky assets such as bonds and loans we model the probability of default and the recovery rate given default based on shared covariates we develop a new class of default models that explicitly accounts for sector specific and regime dependent unobservable heterogeneity in firm characteristics based on the analysis of a large default and recovery data set over the horizon 1980 2008 we document that the specification of the default model has a major impact on the predicted loss distribution whereas the specification of the recovery model is less important in particular we find evidence that industry factors and regime dynamics affect the performance of default models implying that the appropriate choice of default models for loss prediction will depend on the credit cycle and on portfolio characteristics finally we show that default probabilities and recovery rates predicted out of sample are negatively correlated and that the magnitude of the correlation varies with seniority class industry and credit cycle this paper was accepted by wei xiong finance

virtuous nexus between corporate social performance and financial performance a study of construction enterprises in china abstract although business and society are thought in a vicious relationship for diminishing trust among stakeholders a few studies indicate the existence of a reciprocal nexus between corporate social performance and corporate financial performance known as the virtuous cycle despite of some empirical studies in developed countries little research has been conducted concerning the assumption in emerging markets where large companies have more responsibilities to create positive and sustainable shared values this paper aims to explore the nexus between social performance and financial performance of chinese companies for their global influential social and environmental impacts together with increasing awareness of corporate social responsibility csr a two step longitudinal design including cross lagged correlation analyses and longitudinal path analyses is applied to examine the overall and decomposed links it is found the virtuous cycle does exist in the overall and in most decomposed links within the context of large construction companies in china these findings are beneficial for interested policy makers corporate managers and the public to create shared value on csr and therefore contribute to csr improvements analysis results indicate a one year time lag to be appropriate for examining the lead lag relationship between corporate social performance and financial performance the research also inspires a potential generalisation of the virtuous cycle by similarly examining it in other industries or other countries with diverse csr contexts

marginal tax rates and income inequality in a life cycle model in this paper we perform computational counterfactual experiments to examine the quantitative impact of marginal tax rates on the distribution of income our methodology builds on previous simulation models developed by auerbach and kotlikoff and fullerton and rogers and uses an algorithm that allows us to examine marginal tax rate structures in their literal form we find that distortions associated with particular marginal tax rate structures have sizable effects on income inequality in a reasonably quantified life cycle setting in our baseline experiments the change in steady state income inequality under 1989 u s income tax rates vis a vis 1984 rates is about half as large as the change actually seen in the data over those two years when measured in terms of a monetary metric derived from gini coefficients

forecasting and decomposition of portfolio credit risk using macroeconomic and frailty factors this paper presents a dynamic portfolio credit model following the regulatory framework using macroeconomic and latent risk factors to predict the aggregate loan portfolio loss in a banking system the latent risk factors have three levels global across the entire banking system parent sectoral for the intermediate loan sectors and sector specific for the individual loan sectors the aggregate credit loss distribution of the banking system over a risk horizon is generated by monte carlo simulation and a quantile estimator is used to produce the aggregate risk measure and economic capital the risk contributions of the individual sectors and risk factors are measured by combining the hoeffding decomposition with the euler capital allocation rule for the u s banking system we find that the real gdp growth rate the global and sector wide frailty risk factors and their spillovers significantly affect loan defaults and the impacts of the frailty factors are not only economy wide but also sector specific we also find that the frailty risk factors make more significant risk contributions to the aggregate portfolio risk than the macroeconomic factors while the macroeconomic factors help to improve the accuracy and efficiency of the credit risk forecasts

impacts of corporate code of conduct on labor standards a case study of reebok s athletic footwear supplier factory in china this study examines the social impacts of labor related corporate social responsibility csr policies or corporate codes of conduct on upholding labor standards through a case study of csr discourses and codes implementation of reebok a leading branded company enjoying a high profiled image for its human rights achievement in a large taiwanese invested athletic footwear factory located in south china i find although implementation of reebok labor related codes has resulted in a race to ethical and legal minimum labor standards when notoriously inhumane and seriously illegal labor rights abuses were curbed chinese workers were forced to work harder and faster but earned less payment and the employee elected trade union installed through codes implementation operated more like a company union rather than an autonomous workers organization representing worker interests in order to explain the paradoxical effects of reebok labor related codes on labor standards i argue the result is determined by both structural forces and agency related factors embedded in industrial national and local contexts to put it shortly i find the effectiveness of reebok labor related codes is constrained not only by unsolved tension between reebok s impetus for profit maximization and commitment to workers human rights but also by hard nosed competition realities at marketplace and chinese government s insufficient protection of labor rights despite drawing merely from a single case study these findings illuminate key determinants inhibiting the effectiveness of labor related csr policies or codes in upholding labor standards and hence two possible way outs of the deadlock 1 sharing cost for improving labor standards among key players in global supply chain and 2 combining regulatory power of voluntary codes and compulsory state legislations

optimal credit swap portfolios this paper formulates and solves the selection problem for a portfolio of credit swaps the problem is cast as a goal program that entails a constrained optimization of preference weighted moments of the portfolio value at the investment horizon the portfolio value takes account of the exact timing of protection premium and default loss payments as well as any mark to market profits and losses realized at the horizon the constraints address collateral and solvency requirements initial capital position limits and other trading constraints that credit swap investors often face in practice the multimoment formulation accommodates the complex distribution of the portfolio value which is a nested expectation under risk neutral and actual probabilities it also generates computational tractability numerical results illustrate the features of optimal portfolios in particular we find that credit swap investment constraints can have a significant impact on optimal portfolios even for simple investment objectives our problem formulation and solution approach extend to corporate bond portfolios and mixed portfolios of corporate bonds and credit derivatives this paper was accepted by wei xiong finance

time changed birth processes and multiname credit derivatives a credit investor such as a bank granting loans to firms or an asset manager buying corporate bonds is exposed to correlated corporate default risk a multiname credit derivative is a financial security that allows the investor to transfer this risk to the credit market in this paper we study the valuation and risk analysis of multiname derivatives to capture the complex economic phenomena that drive the pricing of these securities we introduce a time changed birth process as a probabilistic model of correlated event timing the self exciting property of a time changed birth process captures the feedback from events that is often observed in credit markets the stochastic variation of arrival rates between events captures the exposure of firms to common economic risk factors we derive a closed form expression for the distribution of a time changed birth process and develop analytically tractable pricing relations for a range of multiname derivatives valuation problems we illustrate our results by calibrating a tranche forward and option pricer to market rates of index and tranche swaps

credit contagion from counterparty risk standard credit risk models cannot explain the observed clustering of default some times described as credit contagion this paper provides the first empirical analysis of credit contagion via direct counterparty effects we find that bankruptcy announce ments cause negative abnormal equity returns and increases in cds spreads for credi tors in addition creditors with large exposures are more likely to suffer from financial distress later this suggests that counterparty risk is a potential additional channel of credit contagion indeed the fear of counterparty defaults among financial institu tions explains the sudden worsening of the credit crisis after the lehman bankruptcy in september 2008

forecasting bankruptcy more accurately a simple hazard model i argue that hazard models are more appropriate than single period models for forecasting bankruptcy single period models are inconsistent while hazard models produce consistent estimates i describe a simple technique for estimating a discrete time hazard model i find that about half of the accounting ratios that have been used in previous models are not statistically significant moreover market size past stock returns and idiosyncratic returns variability are all strongly related to bankruptcy i propose a model that uses both accounting ratios and market driven variables to produce out of sample forecasts that are more accurate than those of alternative models copyright 2001 by university of chicago press

the role of intergenerational transfers in aggregate capital accumulation this paper uses historical u s data to directly estimate the contribution of intergenerational transfers to aggregate capital accumulation the evidence presented indicates that intergenerational transfers account for the vast majority of aggregate u s capital formation only a negligible fraction of actual capital accumulation can be traced to life cycle or hump savings a major difference between this study and previous investigations of this issue is the use of more accurate longitudinal age earnings and age consumption profiles these profiles are simply too flat to generate substantial life cycle savings this paper suggests the importance of and need for substantially greater research and data collection on intergenerational transfers life cycle models of savings that emphasize savings for retirement as the dominant form of capital accumulation should give way to models that illuminate the determinants of intergenerational transfers

social security reform and intertemporal smoothing abstract this paper examines the welfare and distributional impact of switching from a defined benefit pension system like social security to a defined contribution system of personal retirement accounts pras while such a switch would do away with the transfers that low wage workers receive through social security it would have the benefit of reducing labor supply distortions moreover a particular kind of pra suggested in this paper one that has very low or zero contribution rates early in life substantially enhances life cycle patterns of consumption and labor supply by making more resources available to credit constrained young workers simulations of a life cycle model show that in welfare terms these pras significantly outperform conventional pras because of this enhanced intertemporal smoothing

wealth inequality and altruistic bequests this paper examines the role of bequests and inter vivos gifts in the u s economy considering their importance in determining i the economy s aggregate capital stock ii the distribution of private net worth and iii public policy outcomes and options it focuses on several recent calibrated simulations this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

credit default swaps and the credit crisis many observers have argued that credit default swaps contributed significantly to the credit crisis of particular concern to these observers are that credit default swaps trade in the largely unregulated over the counter market as bilateral contracts involving counterparty risk and that they facilitate speculation involving negative views of a firm s financial strength some observers have suggested that credit default swaps would not have made the crisis worse had they traded on exchanges i conclude that credit default swaps did not cause the dramatic events of the credit crisis that the over the counter credit default swaps market worked well during much of the crisis and that exchange trading has both advantages and costs compared to over the counter trading though i argue that eliminating over the counter trading of credit default swaps could reduce social welfare i also recognize that much research is needed to understand better and to quantify the social gains and costs of derivatives in general and credit default swaps in particular

on correlation and default clustering in credit markets we establish markovian models in the heath jarrow and morton 1992 paradigm that permit an exponential affine representation of riskless and risky bond prices while offering significant flexibility in the choice of volatility structures estimating models in our family is typically no more difficult than in the workhorse affine family besides diffusive and jump induced default correlations defaults can impact the credit spreads of surviving firms allowing for a greater clustering of defaults numerical implementations highlight the importance of incorporating interest rate credit spread correlations credit spread impact factors and the full credit spread curve when building a unified framework for pricing credit derivatives the author 2010 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oxfordjournals org oxford university press

tax reform and adjustment costs the impact on investment and market value this paper provides an effective tax rate measure that is valid in the presence of adjustment costs and anticipated tax changes and a measure of the impact of tax changes on market value that may be decomposed into the effects on discounted pure profits and normal returns to capital changes in the value of capital may in turn be decomposed further into changes in the marginal value of new capital and changes in the relative value of new and existing capital these new measures are used to evaluate tax changes similar to those introduced by the recent u s tax reform copyright 1989 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

common failings how corporate defaults are correlated we test the doubly stochastic assumption under which firms default times are correlated only as implied by the correlation of factors determining their default intensities using data on u s corporations from 1979 to 2004 this assumption is violated in the presence of contagion or frailty unobservable explanatory variables that are correlated across firms our tests do not depend on the time series properties of default intensities the data do not support the joint hypothesis of well specified default intensities and the doubly stochastic assumption we find some evidence of default clustering exceeding that implied by the doubly stochastic model with the given intensities why do corporate defaults cluster in time several explanations have been explored first firms may be exposed to common or correlated risk factors whose co movements cause correlated changes in conditional default probabilities second the event of default by one firm may be contagious in that one such event may directly induce other corporate failures as with the collapse of penn central railway in 1970 third learning from default may generate default correlation for example to the extent that the defaults of enron and worldcom revealed accounting irregularities that could be present in other firms they may have had a direct impact on the conditional default probabilities of other firms our primary objective is to examine whether cross firm default correlation that is associated with observable factors determining conditional default probabilities the first channel on its own is sufficient to account for the degree of time clustering in defaults that we find in the data

affine modeling of credit risk pricing of credit events and contagion we propose a discrete time affine pricing model that simultaneously allows for i the presence of systemic entities by departing from the no jump condition on the factors conditional distribution

consumption retirement and social security evaluating the efficiency of reform that encourages longer careers abstract this paper proposes and analyzes a social security reform in which individuals no longer face the oasi payroll tax after say age 54 or a career of 34 years and their subsequent earnings have no bearing on their benefits we first estimate parameters of a life cycle model our specification includes non separable preferences and possible disability it predicts a consumption expenditure change at retirement we use the magnitude of the expenditure change together with households retirement age decisions to identify key structural parameters the estimated magnitude of the change in consumption expenditure depends importantly on the treatment of consumption by adult children of the household simulations indicate that the reform could increase retirement ages one year or more equivalent variations could average more than 4000 per household and income tax revenues per household could increase by more than 14 000

financial networks and contagion we study cascades of failures in a network of interdependent financial organizations how discontinuous changes in asset values e g defaults and shutdowns trigger further failures and how this depends on network structure integration greater dependence on counterparties and diversification more counterparties per organization have different nonmonotonic effects on the extent of cascades diversification connects the network initially permitting cascades to travel but as it increases further organizations are better insured against one another s failures integration also faces trade offs increased dependence on other organizations versus less sensitivity to own investments finally we illustrate the model with data on european debt cross holdings jel d85 f15 f34 f36 f65 g15 g32 g33 g38 globalization brings with it increased financial interdependencies among many kinds of organizations governments central banks investment banks firms etc that hold each other s shares debts and other obligations such interdependencies can lead to cascading defaults and failures which are often avoided through massive bailouts of institutions deemed too big to fail recent examples include the us government s interventions in aig fannie mae freddie mac and general motors and the european commission s interventions in greece and spain although such bailouts circumvent the widespread failures that were more prevalent in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries they emphasize the need to study the risks created by a network of interdependencies understanding these risks is crucial to designing incentives and regulatory responses which defuse cascades before they are imminent in this paper we develop a general model that produces new insights regarding financial contagions and cascades of failures among organizations linked through a network of financial interdependencies organizations values depend on each other e g through cross holdings of shares debt or other liabilities if an

supplier integration green sustainability programs and financial performance of fashion enterprises under global financial crisis abstract fashion business is sensitive to economic situations and supplier integration si and green sustainability programs gsp are two timely issues in the fashion industry undoubtedly both si and gsp require significant resources and continuous commitment which affect cash flows and resource allocation of the fashion enterprises how si and gsp affect the financial performance of the fashion enterprises under the global financial crisis is hence an important issue motivated by the above relationship and based on publicly available data this study aims to explore empirically i the impact of si and gsp adoption on the financial performance of fashion enterprises ii the ability of si and gsp adoption to alleviate adversity owing to financial crisis and iii the moderating effect brought by fashion content on the above relationships the findings reveal that i both si and gsp adoption can significantly improve the financial performance of the fashion enterprises ii both si and gsp adoption help to mitigate the adverse effect of financial tsunami on the fashion enterprise s financial performance and iii fashion content has a moderating effect for fashion enterprises which sell fashionable items i e fashionable group to increase profits through a higher level of si or executing gsp to act against financial tsunami managerial implications and insights are discussed

systemic risk in financial systems we consider default by firms that are part of a single clearing mechanism the obligations of all firms within the system are determined simultaneously in a fashion consistent with the priority of debt claims and the limited liability of equity we first show via a fixed point argument that there always exists a clearing payment vector that clears the obligations of the members of the clearing system under mild regularity conditions this clearing vector is unique next we develop an algorithm that both clears the financial system in a computationally efficient fashion and provides information on the systemic risk faced by the individual system firms finally we produce qualitative comparative statics for financial systems these comparative statics imply that in contrast to single firm results even unsystematic nondissipative shocks to the system will lower the total value of the system and may lower the value of the equity of some of the individual system firms

risk analysis of collateralized debt obligations collateralized debt obligations which are securities with payoffs that are tied to the cash flows in a portfolio of defaultable assets such as corporate bonds play a significant role in the financial crisis that has spread throughout the world insufficient capital provisioning due to flawed and overly optimistic risk assessments is at the center of the problem this paper develops stochastic methods to measure the risk of positions in collateralized debt obligations and related instruments tied to an underlying portfolio of defaultable assets it proposes an adaptive point process model of portfolio default timing a maximum likelihood method for estimating point process models that is based on an acceptance rejection resampling scheme and statistical tests for model validation to illustrate these tools they are used to estimate the distribution of the profit or loss generated by positions in multiple tranches of a collateralized debt obligation that references the cdx high yield portfolio and the risk capital required to support these positions

reviews of the 2006 economic report of the president the u s tax system in international perspective a review of the 2006 economic report of the president s tax chapter 1 alan j auerbach university of california berkeley and nber april 12 2006 what can you say about a tax reform proposal that died this was the challenge facing the writers of the chapter on taxation for the 2006 economic report of the president hereafter erp one year ago the erp included a chapter entitled options for tax reform that began with the section heading why do we need tax reform and proceeded to lay out the available options that it suggested could make the u s tax system simpler more equitable and efficient in making the case for tax reform that chapter set the stage for the impending work of the president s advisory panel on tax reform while being careful to leave the president s options open until the panel reported the 2005 chapter twice included the phrase the president has not endorsed any specific proposal and this chapter does not advocate the adoption of any particular prototype for reform in case the reader didn t get the message the first two times the chapter concluded with a reminder that the president has not endorsed any specific proposal 2 that was then in november 2005 the tax reform panel issued its report so one might have anticipated a follow up chapter in this year s erp evaluating the panel s i am grateful to rosanne altshuler bill gale kevin hassett and joel slemrod for comments on an earlier draft slemrod 2005 provides a critical evaluation of the 2005 chapter

counterparty risk and the pricing of defaultable securities motivated by recent financial crises in east asia and the united states where the downfall of a small number of firms had an economy wide impact this paper generalizes existing reduced form models to include default intensities dependent on the default of a counterparty in this model firms have correlated defaults due not only to an exposure to common risk factors but also to firm specific risks that are termed counterparty risks numerical examples illustrate the effect of counterparty risk on the pricing of defaultable bonds and credit derivatives such as default swaps it has been well documented in moody s reports on historical default rates of corporate bond issuers that the number of defaults the number of credit rating downgrades and credit spreads are all strongly correlated with the business cycle this has motivated reduced form models such as duffie and singleton 1999 and lando 1994 1998 which assume that the intensity of default is a stochastic process that derives its randomness from a set of state variables such as the short term interest rate this approach has the convenient features that conditioning on the state variables defaults become independent events and default correlation arises due to the common inf luence of these state variables on the other hand a default intensity that depends linearly on a set of smoothly varying macroeconomic variables is unlikely to account for the clustering of defaults around an economic recession this is evident from a casual inspection of the exhibits in the latest moody s report see keenan 2000 within the usual affine framework one can model the state variables as jump diffusions see duffie pan and single

macroeconomic effects of corporate default crisis a long term perspective abstract using an extensive data set on corporate bond defaults in the us from 1866 to 2010 we study the macroeconomic effects of bond market crises and contrast them with those resulting from banking crises during the past 150 years the us has experienced many severe corporate default crises in which 20 50 of all corporate bonds defaulted although the total par amount of corporate bonds has at times rivaled the amount of bank loans outstanding we find that corporate default crises have far fewer real effects than do banking crises these results provide empirical support for current theories that emphasize the unique role that banks and the credit and collateral channels play in amplifying macroeconomic shocks

intergenerational transfers and the accumulation of wealth h t ouseholds acquire wealth from two sources they save out of income they have earned and they receive transfers from other people the first method of wealth accumulation goes under the name of life cycle saving in which people save during their working lives and dissave after retirement the second involves either an inter vivos transfer that is a transfer between living people or a bequest a transfer that occurs at the death of the donor while inter vivos transfers and bequests will arise in dynastic models where preferences include a taste for the well being of one s descendents few empirical life cycle models reflect these concerns indeed a sharp debate has arisen over the ability of the simple life cycle model to explain observed wealth accumulation understanding the relative sizes of these sources of wealth accumulation affects a variety of issues for example the effects of government debt social insurance public transfer programs estate taxes and incentives for charitable giving depend to some extent on the magnitude and nature of private saving and transfers of wealth analyses of the inequality of wealth may depend on whether most of wealth is earned or received as transfers appropriate policies for encouraging private saving may look rather different depending on whether most saving is to be consumed later in life or passed along to the next generation finally evidence on transfer patterns relates to more fundamental

growth effects of shifting from a graduated rate tax system to a flat tax i introduction recently the debate concerning fundamental u s tax reform has led to a number of proposals that involve a shift toward a consumption based system 1 one such proposal is the so called flat tax of hall and rabushka 1995 the flat tax would apply a single tax rate to all labor income above a given threshold and to all capital income after fully expensing investment expenditures hall and rabushka 1995 argue that the adoption of their proposal would provide an enormous boost to the u s economy by dramatically improving incentives to engage in productive activities and would save taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars in compliance and administration costs 2 in this article we develop a quantitative general equilibrium model to assess the growth effects of adopting a flat tax plan similar to the one proposed by hall and rabushka 1995 the model captures many of the features of the current u s tax code such as graduated personal tax rates a standard personal deduction separate tax rates applied to personal and business income double taxation of business income and differential tax treatment of physical and human capital under appropriate parameter settings the model can exhibit either endogenous or exogenous long run growth our choice of functional forms facilitates a closed form solution to the model this allows us to characterize explicitly the economy s transition path following the reform a central issue in the debate over fundamental tax reform is the effect that such a reform would have on economic growth the present analysis builds on the work of stokey and rebelo 1995 who use an endogenous growth framework to identify the key model features and parameters that are important for determining the quantitative impacts of distortionary taxes on long run growth 3 our study differs from theirs and the bulk of the dynamic tax literature in one fundamental respect here we evaluate the growth effects of shifting from a graduatedrate tax system to a flat rate system stokey and rebelo 1995 consider only flat rate systems in which the marginal tax rate is equal to the average tax rate we approximate the graduated rate tax system in the u s economy by an empirical tax rate function that allows the personal tax rate to depend positively on household taxable income in equilibrium household decisions are influenced by both the level and slope of the tax schedule to implement the flat tax reform we shift the parameters of the tax rate function to flatten the marginal tax schedule while maintaining revenue neutrality our methodology treats the hall rabushka proposal as one that in effect moves a representative household from one tax rate schedule to another we view this setup as a reasonable approximation to gauge the growth effects of tax reform at the macro level a more elaborate setup would of course allow for household heterogeneity at a given point in time in this regard we note that caucutt et al 2003 have recently examined the growth effects of graduated rate taxes in a two period overlapping generations model that includes both skilled and unskilled agents in their model a flatter tax schedule increases the fraction of skilled agents in the economy the share of total output devoted to education rises accordingly and the economy s long run growth rate is observed to increase the quantitative implications of their model are difficult to compare to ours however because their two period framework implies a very long time horizon between household decisions about 30 years moreover their model abstracts from many of the features of the u s tax code that we include here in addition to examining the consequences of flattening the marginal tax schedule we investigate the growth effects attributable to other parts of the flat tax proposal such as allowing full investment expensing eliminating the double taxation of business income and increasing the standard personal deduction

simulating fundamental tax reform in the united states this paper uses a new large scale dynamic life cycle simulation model to compare the welfare and macroeconomic effects of transitions to five fundamental alternatives to the u s federal income tax including a proportional consumption tax and a flat tax the model incorporates intragenerational heterogeneity and a detailed specification of alternative tax systems simulation results project significant long run increases in output for some reforms for other reforms namely those that seek to insulate the poor and initial older generations from adverse welfare changes long run output gains are modest

caviar conditional autoregressive value at risk by regression quantiles value at risk var has become the standard measure of market risk employed by financial institutions for both internal and regulatory purposes var is defined as the value that a portfolio will lose with a given probability over a certain time horizon usually one or ten days despite its conceptual simplicity its measurement is a very challenging statistical problem and none of the methodologies developed so far give satisfactory solutions interpreting the var as the quantile of future portfolio values conditional on current information we propose a new approach to quantile estimation which does not require any of the extreme assumptions invoked by existing methodologies such as normality or i i d returns the conditional autoregressive value at risk or caviar model moves the focus of attention from the distribution of returns directly to the behavior of the quantile we specify the evolution of the quantile over time using a special type of autoregressive process and use the regression quantile framework introduced by koenker and bassett to determine the unknown parameters since the objective function is not differentiable we use a differential evolutionary genetic algorithm for the numerical optimization utilizing the criterion that each period the probability of exceeding the var must be independent of all the past information we introduce a new test of model adequacy the dynamic quantile test applications to simulated and real data provide empirical support to this methodology and illustrate the ability of these algorithms to adapt to new risk environments

a study of management perceptions of the impact of corporate social responsibility on organisational performance in emerging economies the case of dubai although a number of studies have shown that corporate social responsibility csr activities often lead to greater organisational performance in western developed economies researchers are yet to examine the strategic value of csr in emerging economies using survey data from 280 firms operating in dubai this study examines the link between csr activities and organisational performance the results show that csr has a positive relationship with all three measures of organisational performance financial performance employee commitment and corporate reputation these results reinforce the accumulating body of empirical support for the positive impact of csr on performance and challenge the dominant assumption that given the weak institutional framework in emerging economies csr activities drain resources and compromise firms competitiveness

the corporate social performance financial performance link strategic managers are consistently faced with the decision of how to allocate scarce corporate resources in an environment that is placing more and more pressures on them recent scholarship in strategic management suggests that many of these pressures come directly from sources associated with social issues in management rather than traditional arenas of strategic management using a greatly improved source of data on corporate social performance this paper reports the results of a rigorous study of the empirical linkages between financial and social performance corporate social performance csp is found to be positively associated with prior financial performance supporting the theory that slack resource availability and csp are positively related csp is also found to be positively associated with future financial performance supporting the theory that good management and csp are positively related 1997 by john wiley sons ltd