market entry strategy under firm heterogeneity and asymmetric payoffs how should a firm decide whether or not to enter an untested market when a competing firm is vying for the same market should a firm always speed to the market in an effort to capitalize on pioneering advantages we address those questions by developing a simple game theoretical model that captures the most essential factors in a firm s market entry decision such as market uncertainty firm heterogeneity competition cannibalization and order of entry effects our analysis shows that in a competitive context both pioneering advantages and laggard s disadvantages can motivate a firm to speed to an untested market therefore pioneering advantages alone are not an adequate guide for a firm to formulate its market entry strategy the optimal decision may call for a firm to be a prudent laggard when pioneering advantages to the firm are substantial or to become a market pioneer when facing pioneering disadvantages we characterize different patterns of market entry as equilibrium outcomes for different configurations of the market reward structure and offer a conceptual framework for formulating market entry strategies that go beyond the conventional dichotomy speed or wait we show that the paradoxical phenomenon of disadvantaged pioneers can arise in a competitive context as the outcome of rational firms making rational choices to show that pioneering advantages alone are not the right litmus test for market entry decisions we apply our general framework to a concrete case where consumer preference or the premium that consumers are willing to pay for the pioneering brand gives rise to pioneering advantages and laggard s disadvantages we conclude that the firm with a larger pioneering premium may choose to wait while a firm with a smaller pioneering premium speeds to the market our analysis also sheds light on empirical research on pioneering advantages because firms may race into a market solely to avoid laggard s disadvantages rather than to capture pioneering advantages pioneers are not necessarily the firms best positioned to establish exploit and maintain pioneering advantages therefore it is not surprising that a significant percentage of pioneers fail as documented by recent empirical research our normative investigation further suggests that this predicament in empirical research will not disappear even if we have complete data use the right measurements and employ perfect statistical techniques therefore it is perhaps more fruitful to redirect our research effort in the search for pioneering advantages finally we extend our analysis to incorporate the effect of cannibalization on an incumbent firm s market entry strategy we conclude that cannibalization can motivate an incumbent firm to wait as the conventional wisdom suggests but it can also be an impetus for a firm to become a market pioneer we offer supporting evidence for our analysis and discuss managerial implications of our conclusions

credible spatial preemption it is often argued that incumbent firms may deter entry by preemptive investment in new goods we show that these conclusions are reversed when multiproduct incumbentfirms may exit in response to entry once entrants are in an industry an incumbent will often want to withdraw some goods to prevent competition with the entrant from reducing profits on other goods such a reaction makes entry more attractive to a potential entrant the equilibrium industry structure is less likely to be monopolistic as the goods are better substitutes as exit costs are low and as the competition between producers of the same good is more intense

r d marketing and the success of next generation products this paper studies dynamic competition in markets characterized by the introduction of technologically advanced next generation products firms invest in new product effort in an attempt to attain industry leadership thus securing high profits and benefiting from advantages relevant for the success of future product generations the analysis reveals that when the current leader possesses higher research and development r d competence it tends to investmore in r d than rivals and to retain its lead position the leader s investment exhibits an inverse u pattern as this advantage increases in contrast when the leader enjoys an advantage that originates from the persistence of reputation it investsless than its followers now followers investment exhibits an inverse u pattern as reputation advantage increases depending on the extent of leader reputation industry structure can either exhibit frequent leadership shifts or prolonged incumbent dominance the basic framework is extended to allow investments in additional marketing variables e g advertising interestingly the leader takes advantage of strong demand for its current product by focusing more on advertising whereas the follower expends more on r d by shedding light on the implications of industry position for investment incentives and market evolution the analysis provides valuable insights for formulating marketing strategy in fast paced high tech business environments

market motives distinctive capabilities and domestic inertia a hybrid model of innovation generation the authors develop and test a model of innovation in which the generative process of innovation is fostered by a balance of three forces market motives distinctive capabilities and domestic ine

is purchasing power parity overvalued the purpose of this paper is to re examine the hypothesis of long run purchasing power parity among industrial countries under the current float using the panel data approach we propose a new finite sample panel data unit root test procedure that allows for a general serial correlation structure and arbitrary contemporaneous correlation in model innovations across countries this procedure is then applied to the recently developed panel data unit root tests of im pesaran and shin 1996 and of maddala and wu 1999 the test results show sufficient evidence against the unit root null for most samples by comparing our results with the existing ones in the literature we found that the method of assuming a restrictive serial correlation structure tends to weaken evidence against the unit root null

can the markov switching model forecast exchange rates abstract a markov swirching model is fit for 18 exchange rates at quarterly frequencies the model fits well in sample for many exchange rates by the mean squared error criterion the markov model does not generate superior forecasts to a random walk or the forward rate there appears to ne some evidence that the forecasts of the markov model are superior at predicting the direction of change of the exchange rate

defensive marketing strategies this paper analyzes how a firm should adjust its marketing expenditures and its price to defend its position in an existing market from attack by a competitive new product our focus is to provide usable managerial recommendations on the strategy of response in particular we show that if products can be represented by their position in a multiattribute space consumers are heterogeneous and maximize utility and awareness advertising and distribution can be summarized by response functions then for the profit maximizing firm it is optimal to decrease awareness advertising it is optimal to decrease the distribution budget unless the new product can be kept out of the market a price increase may be optimal and even under the optimal strategy profits decrease as a result of the competitive new product furthermore if the consumer tastes are uniformly distributed across the spectrum a price decrease increases defensive profits it is optimal at the margin to improve product quality in the direction of the defending product s strength and it is optimal at the margin to reposition by advertising in the same direction in addition we provide practical procedures to estimate 1 the distribution of consumer tastes and 2 the position of the new product in perceptual space from sales data and knowledge of the percent of consumers who are aware of the new product and find it available competitive diagnostics such as the angle of attack are introduced to help the defending manager this article was originally published in marketing science volume 2 issue 4 pages 319 360 in 1983

disentangling pioneering cost advantages and disadvantages existing literature discusses a number of possible pioneering cost advantages and disadvantages in this paper we empirically test three different sources of long term pioneering cost advantage experience curve effects preemption of input factors and preemption of ideal market space and three different sources of pioneering cost disadvantage imitation vintage effects and demand orientation we disentangle these sources by breaking total cost of a business unit into three different components purchasing production and selling general and administrative sg a costs and identifying conditions that intensify or reduce the effect of the proposed source using two samples of business units one for consumer goods and one for industrial goods we find support for five of the six sources of pioneering cost advantage and disadvantage in both samples while the advantage due to preemption of ideal market space is limited to the consumer goods sample the unconditional analysis shows a pioneering purchasing cost advantage but even larger pioneering production and sg a cost disadvantages the complexity of our obtained findings suggests that managers need to think carefully about their particular conditions before making assumptions about the cost and therefore profit implications of a pioneering strategy

deconstructing the pioneer s advantage examining vintage effects and consumer valuations of quality and variety several studies have demonstrated an order of entry effect on market share suggesting that pioneers outperform later entrants however other research has pointed out the limitations of these studies and found evidence that many pioneers fail or have low market share given this background the purpose of this research is to understand the conditions under which pioneers are more likely and also less likely to have an advantage we propose a game theoretic model that includes important sources of pioneer advantages as well as disadvantages specifically we incorporate a pioneer advantage due to preemption in markets with heterogeneous tastes in addition we incorporate a potential pioneer disadvantage due to technology vintage effects where later entrants utilizing improved technology can have lower costs and higher quality the model allows us to evaluate the extent of vintage effects necessary to overcome a pioneer s advantage key relationships are found between the magnitude of the pioneer advantage or disadvantage and consumer valuations of product attributes e g variety and quality we empirically validate the model with vintage effect data in 36 product categories and measures of consumer valuations of product variety and quality for 12 of these 36 categories the results show that pioneers do better in product categories wherevariety is more important and worse in categories where productquality is more important pioneers in categories with high vintage effects are shown to have lower market shares and higher failure rates similar results appear when analyzing persistence of market leadership over time further validating our model s major implications we also present two case studies that illustrate key elements of the model

a new venture s optimal entry time abstract we formulate a model of the decision of when a new venture should enter the market based on the uncertain evolution over time of environmental volatility and market competition we characterize the performance maximizing time to enter the market and show how this entry time is affected by changes in the business environment by further focusing our modeling assumptions we are able to translate our time based criteria into environmental terms and propose that management set a target environment level that must be met before entering the market we also demonstrate that management should adjust this target over time to respond to changes in the business context this modeling feature is important because it allows for a better assessment of when to enter a market based on future performances we translate the model s theoretical insights into testable propositions and explore possible ways to operationalize these for empirical testing

efficiency effects of exclusive territories evidence from the indiana beer market the welfare effects of vertically imposed exclusive territories and the appropriate antitrust policy toward them have long been debated this paper sheds light on the exclusive territory controversy by examing the effects of indiana s 1979 ban on the grant of exclusive territories to beer wholesalers using time series data for 1948 1990 we find the ban reduced beer consumption in indiana by 6 percent coupled with previous evidence that indiana s ban reduced price our results suggest that exclusive territories in the beer industry increase demand and enhance welfare by stimulating the provision of dealer services

historical method in marketing research with new evidence on long term market share stability abstract several researchers have advocated historical or longitudinal approaches to study marketing phenomena although some have applied this approach more often it has been overlooked or denigrated the author argues that historical method is capable of producing scientific knowledge that is currently useful rather than simply a remembrance of the past the author presents a complete description of the historical method so researchers can use this article as a guide when applying this method the value of the method is illustrated by examining the prevailing finding in the marketing literature that market shares are stable over time although this finding is considered an empirical generalization an analysis of more than 650 brands in 100 categories raises doubts about the longevity of market share stability

market segmentation self selection and product line design the purpose of this paper is to develop a theory of market segmentation based on consumer self selection the extant theory is based on the third degree price discrimination model of pigou central assumptions of which are that the firm can directly address individual segments and isolate them by using consumer self selection i am relaxing these assumptions in the context of a monopolist designing a product line i show that this relaxation has significant implications for how the products and prices are chosen and what they look like in particular segments may be aggregated even though there are no economies of scale furthermore consumer self selection enables us to model cannibalization and competition among firms

cointegration how short is the long run abstract when testing for cointegration and faced with short sample periods it is common for researchers to turn to more frequently sampled observations that is to move from annual to quarterly or monthly data in order to increase the number of observations we argue that such a gain in the degrees of freedom is more apparent than real essentially cointegration is a long run concept and hence requires long spans of data to give tests for cointegration much power rather than merely large numbers of observations using monte carlo simulations we demonstrate this for four popular tests for cointegration

eating your own lunch protection through preemption recent discussions of management practices among successful high technology companies suggest that one key strategy for success is to eat your own lunch before someone else does the implication is that in intensely competitive or hypercompetitive markets firms with a leading position should aggressively cannibalize their own current advantages with next generation advantages before competitors step in to steal the market given the pace of technological and other types of change such strategy often requires creating next generation advantages while the current advantages are still profitable that is trading current profits for future market leadership we capture the tradeoff between a market leader s willingness to reap profits with its current set of advantages and its desire to maintain market leadership by investing in the next generation using a competitive model that determines the equilibrium launch time of a next generation advantage we find that in absence of lower launch costs for an

the monetary model strikes back evidence from the world abstract we revisit the dramatic failure of monetary models in explaining exchange rate movements using the information content from 98 countries we find strong evidence for cointegration between nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals we also find fundamentals based models very successful in beating a random walk in out of sample prediction

post entry competition in the plain paper copier market this paper reviews events in the plain paper copier ppc market immediately after xerox s monopoly ended xerox s behavior and that of a flood of ppc entrants are viewed through the lens of recent advances in the theory of entry and entry deterrence the events of the early post entry period also cast some interesting light on the theory of technological competition the modern theory of entry deterrence rests on a simple if not obvious proposition the socially worst industry performance is after entry the more monopolies there will be since the interests of the entrant and society are opposed once entry has occurred a series of papers have considered endogenous changes in the conditions of competition monopolists who make their industry more competitive conditional on entry in order to deter potential entrants there are two distinct steps in the entry deterrence argument first it must be possible for events during the monopoly period to affect postentry competition some intertemporal complication must be present either in costs or in firm specific demand if the state of the industry at the time of entry is to form important initial conditions for competition second the monopolist must find it profitable to manipulate the initial conditions by some pre entry action the general theoretical questions of entry and deterrence have been cast in quite specific terms for the problem of technological competition one view emphasizes the arrow effect kenneth arrow 1962 jennifer reinganum 1983 drew fudenberg and jean tirole because any innovation destroys some of the rents to older products and processes incumbent monopolists have a smaller incentive to innovate than potential entrants another view richard schmalensee 1983 richard gilbert and david newbery 1982 points out that the incumbent s losses from entrant s innovation create a motive for preemptive r d product introduction or patenting if incumbents are leaders and entrants followers the second view will hold independent of technology note that the difference is over the profitability of entry deterring strategies in both views the presence of valuable assets like patents or secrets provides the necessary intertemporal link events in the ppc market during the time of xerox s monopoly did have a substantial impact on the nature of competition in the early postentry period an arrow effect is evident as are other equilibrium explanations of xerox s rapid decline the alternative explanation that xerox was fat is also considered below

explaining the duration of exchange rate pegs abstract this paper is an empirical investigation of the duration of exchange rate pegs in 16 latin american countries and jamaica we identify factors that influence peg duration using logit analysis the real exchange rate and the level of international liquidity are significant determinants of the monthly likelihood of devaluation structural variables such as the openness of an economy and its geographical trade concentration and political variables such as changes in the executive also significantly affect the likelihood of a devaluation there is some evidence that the likelihood of a devaluation first rises and subsequently declines during the first year of a peg

efficiencies without economists the early years of resale price maintenance resale price maintenance rpm continues to be a contentious topic both in economics and in antitrust during the 1980s economists derived new efficiency motivations for rpm while the supreme court reaffirmed the decades old per se ban on its use and congress threatened to extend that ban in the 1990s after several years of federal inactivity during the reagan administration the federal trade commission ftc has once again begun bringing rpm cases while economists have proposed a number of different efficiency explanations for rpm such theorizing has been performed largely without the help of businesses that actually use rpm with little practical evidence such hypotheses have been subject to substantial criticism of course since rpm has been per se illegal businesses may be reluctant to admit that they are engaged in the practice which would appear to be a necessary condition for generating an efficiency defense this article seeks to find out why businesses may believe that they benefit from rpm it does so by examining which efficiency rationales were advanced by firms during a critical time for rpm in the united states 1915 to 1917 these rationales drawn largely from previously unexplored materials are then examined in the light of current economic theory there are two basic sources for these rationales the first is three hearings on rpm held in 1915 1916 and 1917 in the u s house of representatives on a bill to legalize certain forms of rpm the second is the transcript of seven days of hearings the ftc held in 1917 to discuss efficiency motivations for rpm section ii explains several economic theories that have been posited for rpm and briefly discusses the critiques of these theories that have arisen in the legal and economic communities section iii examines federal rpm case law prior to 1918 and posits efficiency rationales from section ii to match the products involved in the case law section iii also discusses the uncertainty in the case law during the period 1908 to 1917 and the concepts behind the various judicial decisions section iv presents the efficiency arguments made during this period of legal uncertainty

imitation costs and patents an empirical study it has long been recognised that the costs of imitating new products have an important effect on the incentives for innovation in a market economy as arrow i962 and others have pointed out if firms can imitate an innovation at a cost that is substantially below the cost to the innovator of developing the innovation there may be little or no incentive for the innovator to carry out the innovation in their discussions of the innovation process economists frequently have called attention to the major role played by the costs of imitation but there has been little or no attempt to measure these costs to test various hypotheses concerning the factors influencing them or to estimate their effects in this paper we report some findings of what seems to be the first study of this topic in addition we present data regarding the effects of patents on imitation costs and on the rate of innovation

the influence of local search and performance heuristics on new design introduction in a new product market abstract this study develops and tests three sets of predictions concerning new design introduction during the initial period of ferment in a new product market we root our predictions most directly in the evolutionary economic concepts of local search and performance heuristics first we argue that new entrants will introduce most designs that are new to a product market during an initial period of ferment second we argue that local search will lead most product market incumbents that introduce second or subsequent designs after their entry to introduce designs that are similar to those incorporated in their existing products third we argue that firms selling products based on designs that are losing aggregate share in the market will be likely to introduce products based on new designs while firms losing market share to firms that are selling the same design are unlikely to introduce new designs our empirical analysis examines the magnetic resonance imaging mri subfield of the diagnostic imaging equipment industry between 1980 and 1986 a period that begins with the introduction of the first mri design and ends with the emergence of widely accepted design characteristics the results support the argument that local search and performance heuristics along with other market factors and business characteristics influence design introduction during a period of ferment

portfolio choice in research and development we analyze the effects of a winner take all patent mechanism on the riskiness of the research strategies chosen by competingfirms as well as on thefirms incentives to duplicate research projects nash equilibrium choices are compared with the social optimum in a oneshot simultaneous move game in which competitors choose the riskiness or correlation of their research performances we show that neither society nor firms have any preference for correlation per se while the divergence between social and privately optimal levels of risk depends on skewness characteristics of the probability distribution over discovery dates and on levels of risk aversion

a high tech product market share model with customer expectations in a product category based on dynamic technology new products enter the market in rapid succession and the competitive situation changes almost daily because technological features of available products tend to improve while prices tend to decline customers develop expectations that may influence their purchase decisions we model the impact of customer expectations regarding price and technology on product market share in the personal computer industry finding significant nonlinear effects of both these effects are observed when actual product price and or technology differ from expectations by a threshold amount our results suggest implementable implications for high tech product managers in particular price and technology should meet but not exceed customer expectations this does not mean that managers should strive for mediocrity rather continuous improvement should be implemented so that product development efforts lead customer expectations

dealing with resource disadvantage generic strategies for smes this paper identifies three generic strategies for smes taking into account explicitly their resource disadvantage in addition to the much advocated niching strategy we show that smes can free ride on the bigger firm s market development efforts and or they can form strategic alliances to force accommodation by the bigger rivals contrary to conventional arguments we show that success in niching is not conditional upon the continued ignorance of the niche by the bigger firms it is also not true that the smes must have a cost advantage vis a vis the bigger firms in order to niche or to free ride successfully the bigger firms faced with entry into their markets by smes encounter the classical chain store paradox the three generic strategies proposed here are designed to force accommodation by the bigger firms

monetary models of dollar yen euro nominal exchange rates dead or undead the predictions of the models were based on ex post realised values of the explanatory variables in other words the standard exchange rate models we estimated exhibited extremely poor out of sample fit 2 at the time these nihilistic results seemed quite radical since there was widespread optimism about the potential of monetary models especially sticky price monetary models to explain how flexible exchange rates function after all the main cornerstones of monetary exchange rate models were relatively noncontroversial long run purchasing power parity or some variant of ppp and a presumption that there is a strong long run connection between money growth and inflation today the meese and rogoff 1983a results no longer seem quite so crazy despite longer data sets on modern floating rates and the application of more sophisticated econometric techniques researchers have continued to find it very frustrating to firmly demonstrate any systematic relationship between exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals at least for the cross rates between the dollar dm euro and yen it is true that researchers have occasionally found particular sub samples where certain models seem to perform noticeably better than the random walk model but as a rule these results wilt under sustained out of sample testing surveying the evidence in their survey for the handbook of international economics frankel and rose 1995 conclude that numerous attempts to overturn the meese and rogoff 1983a results have failed

when to adopt a service innovation nash equilibria in a competitive diffusion framework abstract we study the optimal timing of adoption of a service innovation that a new entrant firm brings to a market populated by two incumbent firms our analysis is based on a model of competitive diffusion dynamics that extends the monopolistic bass model to include customer churn processes as well as a potential market expansion driven by the innovation we obtain expressions for the time trajectories of the customer bases i e the numbers of customers that use old and new service processes for the competing firms as well as sharper closed form characterizations for the setting with a stable market and homogeneous imitation process in modeling competitive dynamics we consider settings where incumbents anticipate a potential failure of the innovation we use the trajectories for the customer bases to model an optimal adoption response problem faced by one of the incumbent firms when the adoption time for the other incumbent can be anticipated or is pre announced and analyze this problem in the absence of market expansion or intra generational customer churn using the optimal response results we provide the nash equilibrium analysis of the adoption decisions by competing incumbent firms and derive sufficient conditions for the now now now never and never never adoption equilibria we use the trading volume data from the foreign exchange markets to estimate the parameters of the competitive diffusion dynamics for our model and to conduct a numerical investigation of the impact of the uncertainty associated with the success of the innovation on the incumbents nash equilibrium adoption times

new organizational forms and strategies for managing in hypercompetitive environments strong forces of change globalization demographic shifts e g aging population and declining fertility rates advances in information technology demassification of society and hypercompetition are reshaping the competitive landscape worldwide as a result companies in most industries are not only undergoing rapid and radical change but are also experiencing a fundamental shift in the rules of competition and the way the game of competition is played the old genteel stable oligopolies that defined competition during the 20th century are rapidly restructuring in their place are emerging markets fraught with uncertainty diverse global players rapid technological change widespread price wars and seemingly endless reorganization that transition is occurring not only in the united states but also in europe latin america and asia in this issue we demonstrate that as predicted by those early researchers a dramatic and far reaching shift has occurred in the nature of competition in most ind

market incumbency and technological inertia this paper uses a case study and a simple mathematical model to study the link between the incumbency and incentives to innovate and introduce drastically new products it identifies the conditions under which fears of self cannibalization are particularly likely to lead incumbents to soft pedal such innovations

a diffusion theory model of adoption and substitution for successive generations of high technology products this study deals with the dynamic sales behavior of successive generations of high technology products new technologies diffuse through a population of potential buyers over time therefore diffusion theory models are related to this demand growth furthermore successive generations of a technology compete with earlier ones and that behavior is the subject of models of technological substitution building upon the bass bass f m 1969 a new product growth model for consumer durables management sci 15january 215 227 diffusion model we develop a model which encompasses both diffusion and substitution we demonstrate the forecasting properties of the model by estimating parameters over part of the data and projecting shipments for later periods