ungarbled earnings and dividends an analysis and extension of the beaver lambert and morse valuation model abstract this paper examines the beaver lambert and morse 1980 valuation model that capitalizes ungarbled earnings the analysis identifies the model s unspecified capitalization factor and it emphasizes that a complete model of ungarbled earnings must focus on the joint stochastic behavior of earnings and dividends it is shown that expected ungarbled earnings scaled for a constant equal expected dividends except for the scale factor no apparent economic reasons suggest that ungarbled earnings are any different from dividends

discussion of analyst following and institutional ownership beginning with beaver 1968 and ball and brown 1968 researchers have commented on the notion that firms differ in how much information is available to their investors firm size was first conjectured and later shown in several studies to be correlated with the availability of predisclosure information 1 o brien and bhushan extend this literature by examining whether changes in firm size cause changes in the number of analysts following a firm or whether the association between analyst following and firm size is due to the correlation between firm size and other variables they do so by simultaneously modeling analysts decisions concerning which firms to follow and institutions decisions concerning which firms to hold in their portfolios in her presentation o brien emphasized that they are not testing an equilibrium model of analysts and institutions behavior but rather conducting an exploratory investigation into the endogenous and exogenous factors influencing how much information is available about a firm the conference discussion focused primarily on two areas the incentives of analysts and institutions and the empirical procedures and results of the paper my discussion is structured around these two areas as well

the effect of reporting restructuring charges on analysts forecast revisions and errors abstract the frequency and magnitude of restructuring charges have drawn the attention of various groups of users of accounting information prior studies on restructuring charges have focused on the market s response to the announcement of the charge in contrast we examine the charges from the perspective of financial analysts we provide evidence that analysts expect declining performance for restructuring firms in the short run but possible improvement over the longer term when we examine forecast errors in the year following the charge we find evidence that the analysts accuracy has declined and despite the downward revision analysts are still optimistically biased

what determines bits abstract similar to bilateral or regional preferential trade agreements ptas bilateral investment treaties bits have proliferated over the past 50 years the purpose of this study is to provide the first systematic empirical analysis of the economic determinants of bits and of the likelihood of bits between pairs of countries using a qualitative choice model in a manner consistent with explaining ptas we develop the econometric specification for explaining the two based upon a general equilibrium model of world trade and foreign direct investment with three factors two products and trade and investment costs among multiple countries in the presence of national and multinational firms the empirical model for bits and ptas is bivariate in nature and supports a set of hypotheses drawn from the general equilibrium model using the preferred empirical model for a sample of 12 880 country pairs in the year 2000 we predict correctly 88 of all pairs with a bit and a pta 81 with a bit but no pta and 84 with a pta but no bit

short run strategies for attracting foreign direct investment this paper empirically investigates the effectiveness and feasibility of two fdi policies fiscal incentives and deregulation aimed at improving the attractiveness of a country in the short run using disaggregated data on sales by us mnes foreign affiliates in 43 developed and developing countries over the 1982 94 period results show that the provision of fiscal incentives or the deregulation of the labour market would exert a positive impact on total fdi given the drawbacks frequently associated with the use of incentive packages economy wide policies which ease firing procedures and reduce severance payments would certainly be the best policy option this paper also highlights the different aggregation and omitted variable biases that have affected results of previous studies and provides some support to recent theoretical models of fdi by showing that third country effects and spatial interdependence influence respectively the location of export platform fdi and vertical fdi

the information content of security prices a second look abstract beaver lambert and morse 1980 employ a regression of percentage change in prices on percentage change in earnings in which data are grouped by the dependent variable reverse regression offers a more intuitive and direct way to assess the information content of security prices the objective of beaver et al while grouping is asymptotically equivalent reverse regression is a more efficient way of examining the incremental explanatory power of lagged values of percentage change in price with respect to accounting earnings

volatility spread and stock market response to earnings announcements abstract using a broad sample of earnings announcements we find a monotonic increase in the spread between call and put implied volatilities as it gets closer to the earnings announcement date the steady build up of volatility spread in the days leading up to the announcement date coupled with the predictive power of cumulative abnormal implied volatility spread on subsequent announcement returns suggests that informed traders are the driving force behind the option market activities prior to earnings announcements such informed trading as proxied by the abnormal implied volatility spread increases rather than decreases the stock market response to earnings announcements after controlling for an array of firm and announcement characteristics this effect is most pronounced when the pre earnings option trading volume is heightened overall our findings lend strong support to the notion that informed options trading immediately before earnings announcements helps alleviate the stock market under reaction to earnings announcements and make it closer to a complete response

information in prices about future earnings abstract stock return over a period reflects the market s revision in expectation of future earnings accounting earnings over the same period however have limited ability to reflect such revised expectations therefore returns anticipate earnings changes and the earnings response coefficient from a regression of returns on contemporaneous earnings changes is biased toward zero we reduce this bias by including leading period returns in price earnings regressions the resulting estimated earnings response coefficient magnitudes suggest that the capital market on average views earnings changes to be largely permanent this is consistent with the random walk time series property of annual earnings

is foreign aid a vanguard of foreign direct investment a gravity equation approach summary this paper investigates whether and how foreign aid facilitates foreign direct investment fdi flows into less developed countries we employ a large data set of source recipient country pairs and conduct gravity equation type estimation our empirical methodology enables us to examine an effect through which aid from a donor country promotes fdi from the same donor in particular which we call a vanguard effect we find that foreign aid in general does not have any significant effect on fdi however when we allow for differences in the size of aid effects across donor countries we find robust evidence that foreign aid from japan in particular has a vanguard effect i e japanese aid promotes fdi from japan but does not attract fdi from other countries

exchange rate regimes and fdi in developing countries a propensity score matching approach abstract theory suggests that regimes of relatively fixed exchange rates encourage inward foreign direct investment fdi relative to regimes of more flexible exchange rates we use propensity score matching psm to investigate the relationship between the exchange rate regimes of 70 developing countries and fdi into such countries using de facto regime classifications we include a large number of variables in the logit equation that estimates the propensity score the probability of regime choice we also use general to specific modeling to get alternative parsimonious versions based on four matching procedures the average treatment effects suggest with overall modest statistical significance that relatively fixed de facto regimes do encourage fdi compared with relatively floating regimes in addition the estimated effects are sometimes economically large

seasonalities in security returns the case of earnings announcements abstract we document a seasonal pattern in stock returns around quarterly earnings announcement dates small firms show large positive abnormal returns and a sizable increase in the variability of returns around these dates only part of the large abnormal returns can be accounted for by the tendency of firms with good news to announce early large firms show no abnormal returns around announcement dates and a much smaller increase in variability

does consumer irrationality trump consumer sovereignty scholars working on the border of economics and psychology have documented many contexts in which individual decision making is unreliable and might be improved by paternalistic interventions against this mounting body of negative evidence economists default belief in consumer sovereignty has been motivated primarily by theory rather than evidence the goal of the present study is to see whether there is direct evidence supporting economists faith in consumer sovereignty in a simple context we address this question by presenting direct evidence that consumers own purchases generate between 10 and 18 more value per dollar spent than items received as gifts

multiple faces of preferential market access their causes and consequences this paper suggests an integrated approach to study selection into and consequences of five modes of preferential economic integration agreements peias goods trade agreements gtas services trade agreements stas double taxation treaties dtts bilateral investment treaties bits and currency unions as well as currency pegs cuas a detailed descriptive analysis reveals typical integration patterns with dtts and bits often being first steps towards deeper integration we consider the effects of peias on bilateral goods trade services trade and fdi and provide conclusive evidence that single and combined peias are associated with positive effects not only on single outcome but typically on all outcomes investment liberalization through dtts and bits seems to be particularly beneficial since concluding them alone or in any combination with other agreements encourages goods trade even more than the liberalization of goods trade per se peter egger and georg wamser

how trade and investment agreements affect bilateral foreign direct investment results from a structural gravity model the paper develops a new stand alone structural gravity model for explaining bilateral fdi patterns we employ the model to analyse the impact of preferential trade agreements ptas bilateral investment treaties bits and other policies on bilateral foreign direct investment fdi we use the unctad global database on bilateral fdi stocks and flows to control for the heterogeneous nature of ptas we employ two different indicators of pta depth we find that on average signing a pta increases bilateral fdi stocks by around 30 nevertheless we also find that deeper or comprehensive ptas e g including provisions on investment public procurement and intellectual property rights provisions do not have a significantly different impact than signing regular ptas belonging to the eu single market on the other hand has a strong impact and increases bilateral fdi by around 135 and signing a bit has an effect that is comparable to signing a pta

empirical asymmetries in foreign direct investment and taxation abstract this paper assesses the sensitivity of the operations of multinational corporations mncs to host country taxation the empirical analysis is based on two different measures of mnc activity by u s majority owned foreign affiliates panel data for aggregate real gross product in manufacturing that originates in a given host country and micro data for a single year regarding the likelihood of a firm locating in a given host country the empirical estimates indicate that investment geared toward export markets rather than the domestic market is particularly sensitive to host country taxation that this sensitivity appears to be greater in developing countries than developed countries and that it is becoming greater over time

predisclosure information firm capitalization and security price behavior around earnings announcements several studies on the relationship between earnings reports and security price behavior provide evidence suggesting that a significant portion of the information revealed through earnings reports is reflected in security prices prior to the report month e g ball and brown 1968 and brown and kennelly 1972 this has been attributed at least partly to the existence of other more timely sources of information which allow market agents to forecast earnings prior to their release the evidence above reflects an average finding across all firms one question of interest is whether there are significant systematic crosssectional differences in the security price reactions to earnings announcements of firms which are associated with specific firm characteristics that lead to differential amounts of predisclosure information this study focuses on firm size capitalization as one such characteristic a firm

operational flexibility and market valuation of earnings this paper examines the association between the stock returns and accounting earnings of firms that have different levels of operational flexibility operational flexibility is a firm s ability to respond profitably to environmental fluctuations by shifting factors of production within a multinational network of subsidiaries the geographic breadth and depth of a firm s multinational network are used as indicators of operational flexibility we find a significantly greater coefficient relating stock returns and accounting earnings for multinational firms that operate in many countries but limit their concentration in any one foreign country than for other multinational firms or domestic firms this coefficient is significantly smaller for multinational firms whose foreign subsidiaries are highly concentrated in a few countries when all multinational firms are pooled together we find their earnings returns association does not differ from that of domestic firms copyright 1999 john wiley sons ltd

in search of substitution between foreign production and exports abstract are foreign production and exports substitutes or complements standard theory of the multinational corporation mnc assumes substitution while previous empirical work examining the relationship has generally found strong evidence of complementarity this study examines product level data which more closely fits the assumption of a single product firm often used in mnc theory and finds substantial evidence for both a substitution and a complementarity effect between affiliate production and exports with japanese automobile parts for the us market i also test for and find evidence of substitution using product level data on a set of japanese produced final consumer goods

accounting measurement price earnings ratio and the information content of security prices a number of papers for example beaver lambert and morse 1980 beaver lambert and ryan 1987 collins kothari and rayburn 1987 and freeman 1987 have documented that stock prices lead accounting earnings these investigations have led to the conclusions that prices provide information about earnings ahead of time and that earnings capture events that affect security prices with a lag the study of p e ratios has supported those conclusions and also produced additional insights beaver and morse 1978 have shown that pie ratios not only predict future earnings changes but they also identify transitory aspects of current earnings investors utilize other information in setting prices which provides both a prediction of future earnings and an indication of whether current earnings are representative of future earnings thus a comparison of price to earnings in a p e calculation can indicate the extent to which current earnings are transitory 1 in this paper we show that information in prices that leads future earnings is contained in financial statements while accrual accounting

incentive aligned conjoint analysis abstract because most conjoint studies are conducted in hypothetical situations with no consumption consequences for the participants the extent to which the studies are able to uncover true consumer preference structures is questionable experimental economics literature with its emphasis on incentive alignment and hypothetical bias suggests that more realistic incentive aligned studies result in stronger out of sample predictive performance of actual purchase behaviors and provide better estimates of consumer preference structures than do hypothetical studies to test this hypothesis the authors design an experiment with conventional hypothetical conditions and parallel incentive aligned counterparts using chinese dinner specials as the context the authors conduct a field experiment in a chinese restaurant during dinnertime the results provide strong evidence in favor of incentive aligned choice conjoint analysis in that incentive aligned choice conjoint outperforms hypothetical choice conjo

environmental protection and economic growth what do the residuals tell us conventional wisdom implies economic growth and environmental quality are incompatible policy objectives recent empirical evidence however suggests stringency of environmental regulations are only weakly or not at all associated with decreased manufacturing activity this paper uses more recent 1982 1994 state level panel data to test if environmental regulations affect manufacturing employment estimation results from our three stage sample selection panel data model suggest that state environmental regulations adversely affect job growth in three of the four industries analyzed

the information content of earnings and prices a simultaneous equations approach abstract the price earnings relation can be characterized as a system of simultaneous equations earnings and prices can behave as if they are both endogenously determined because they are jointly affected by information that is difficult to specify explicitly specification tests provide evidence that both earnings changes and price changes are endogenous the price and earnings coefficients increase from ols to joint estimation and under a restrictive set of assumptions provide increasingly similar estimates of the permanent component of earnings the evidence is consistent with the contention that a portion of the single equation bias can be mitigated via joint estimation

export platform foreign direct investment theory and evidence this paper proposes a model that accounts for export platform fdi a form of fdi that is common in the data but rarely discussed in the theoretical literature unlike the previous literature this paper s theory nests all the typical modes of supply including exports horizontal and vertical fdi horizontal and vertical export platform fdi the theory yields the testable hypothesis that a decrease in either inter regional or intra regional trade costs induces firms to choose export platform fdi the empirical analysis provides descriptive statistics that point to large proportions of third country exports of us fdi and an econometric analysis whose results are in line with the model s predictions the paper suggests policy implications for nations seeking to attract fdi

information markets and the comovement of asset prices traditional asset pricing models predict that covariance between prices of difierent assets should be lower than what we observe in the data this model generates high covariance within a rational expectations framework by introducing markets for information about asset payofis when information is costly rational investors will not buy information about all assets they will learn about a subset because information production has high flxed costs competitive producers charge more for low demand information than for high demand information a price that declines in quantity makes investors want to purchase a common subset of information if investors price many assets using a common subset of information then a shock to one signal is passed on as a common shock to many asset prices these common shocks to asset prices generate excess covariance the cross sectional and time series properties of asset price covariance are consistent with this explanation

how far away is an intangible services fdi and distance foreign direct investment fdi in services has grown significantly in recent years evidence of spatial relationships in fdi decisions have been provided for goods manufacturing by utilising physical distance based measures of trade costs this paper investigates spatial interactions for services fdi using several distance measures including physical distance genetic distance and transport time across different measures of distance the traditional determinants of outbound fdi activity remain valid for services we also find spatial interdependence for services fdi that is generally supportive of export platform fdi

the market s response to the 1974 lifo adoptions in this paper i report the results of a study of stock price reactions to lifo adoptions in 1974 and 1975 these two years were characterized by high levels of inflation and wide swings in stock prices and more than 400 firms on the new york and american stock exchanges switched to lifo previous studies see below provide conflicting results of the market s reaction to lifo adoptions these studies exhibit certain research design and small sample limitations which prevent one from resolving the issue of how the market reacts to lifo switches using a better matched pair design and a larger sample i conclude that lifo adopters suffered negative abnormal return performance during the period surrounding their annual earnings announcements while several possible explanations for this result are discussed additional research is needed to provide further insight into the nature of the market reaction to lifo adoption

the boundaries of multinational enterprises and the theory of international trade this paper begins with a review of empirical evidence on multinational firms conceptual underpinnings of a theory are developed relying in particular on the notion of knowledge capital as a mobile joint input into geographically separated production facilities this idea is embedded in a simple two country general equilibrium model that supports multinational production in equilibrium under conditions consistent with the empirical evidence the final section examines internalization and shows why certain properties of knowledge capital also imply a preference for transferring technologies internally within the firm rather than through arm s length markets

cross country services versus manufacturing activity of multinational firms in response to services versus goods policy this paper assesses the consequences of trade costs on goods and services for the distribution of foreign direct investment fdi across goods and services as well as across countries the paper employs data on the universe of german fdi abroad which are collected at the firm level and aggregated for the purpose of this paper to two sectors goods and services and 79 countries using data for the year 2005 key findings are that services trade costs as reflected in the services trade restrictiveness index and bilateral investment treaty membership are the most important policy drivers of the activity of german owned multinational firms in both goods and services an increase in services trade restrictions raises goods activity at the expense of services activity this effect is more pronounced the more important host countries in terms of the german fdi are

market structure informed trading and analysts recommendations we examine stock price behavior in response to initial coverage buy recommendations that are pre released to important clients before the stock market opens and find a strong positive valuation effect at the open on average it takes five minutes of trading for nyse amex stocks and 15 minutes for nasdaq stocks to reflect the private information contained in these analyst recommendations so when informational asymmetry is high the centralized call market is more efficient than a competitive but fragmented dealer market public news release leaves share prices unaltered overall competition among informed traders causes private information to be rapidly incorporated into stock prices

the information content of losses abstract this study hypothesizes that because shareholders have a liquidation option losses are not expected to perpetuate they are thus less informative than profits about the firm s future prospects the results are consistent with the hypothesis they also show that the documented increase in the earnings response coefficent as the cumulation period increases appears to be due exclusively to the effect of losses the liquidation option effect extends to profitable cases where earnings are low enough to make the option attractive alternating explanations for the low informativeness of losses such as mean reversal of earnings are not supported by the tests

what experimental protocol influence disparities between actual and hypothetical stated values preferences elicited in hypothetical settings have recently come underscrutiny causing estimates from the contingent valuation method to bechallenged due to perceived hypothetical bias given that the receivedliterature derives value estimates using heterogeneous experimentaltechniques understanding the effects of important design parameters onthe magnitude of hypothetical bias is invaluable in this paper we addressthis issue statistically by using a meta analysis to examine data from 29experimental studies our empirical findings suggest that on averagesubjects overstate their preferences by a factor of about 3 in hypotheticalsettings and that the degree of over revelation is influenced by thedistinction between willingness to pay and willingness to accept publicversus private goods and several elicitation methods

the relative and complementary performance of analyst and security price based measures of expected earnings abstract this paper evaluates the relative performance of ibes consensus financial analyst forecasts and forecasts based upon the anticipatory behaviour of security prices according to two criteria a the accuracy of earnings growth predictions and b the contemporaneous association between unexpected earnings and security returns during the forecast year results are presented for firms in differing size groups measured here by market capitalization the results indicate that neither forecast source is superior to the other in terms of either criterion there is however significant complementarity of financial analyst and price based forecasts

markets gift cards the mobil oil company introduced the first retail gift card that recorded value on a magnetic strip in 1995 in under a decade such gift cards replaced apparel as the number one item sold during the christmas season this study will discuss the reasons for the strong surge in the gift card market it will then consider the value of gift cards as an intermediate option between two alternatives purchasing a physical gift which could possibly be returned or exchanged versus giving cash empirical data on the resale price of gift cards from an internet auction website provide information on the value that recipients place on gift cards suggesting that the difference between the cost of a gift card to the giver and its value to the recipient is substantial although perhaps not quite as large as the parallel gap involved in physical gifts

knowledge capital international trade and foreign direct investment a sectoral analysis the knowledge capital kc model of mnes is now a widely adopted empirical approach to explaining the location and production decisions of global firms based on both horizontal and vertical motivations while most of the existing studies have focused on highly aggregated national data we extend this model to sectoral data consisting of broad manufacturing industries and explicitly account for the dynamic nature of international investment data the empirical results from a dynamic panel data analysis indicate that that the predictions of the kc model regarding mne behavior vary by the type of industry production processes in electronics and transportation equipment are more characterized by efficient vertical specialization of r d activities and assembly while other sectors display more complex motivations

the deadweight loss of christmas comment two previous surveys used to measure the welfare implications of christmas gift giving in the united states have reached opposite conclusions joel waldfogel 1993 finds a welfare reduction of 13 percent or more associated with christmas giving curiously sara j solnick and david hemenway s 1996 henceforth sh replication of waldfogel s survey turns up just the opposite result a 214 percent welfare gain we design a series of controlled laboratory experiments to determine why the two papers arrive at opposite conclusions we do not produce our own estimate of the deadweight loss of gift giving rather our aim is to understand how and which among the differences in methodology between the two studies account for their divergent findings waldfogel 1993 surveyed 58 students enrolled in an intermediate microeconomics class about specific gifts they had received for christmas he asked recipients to estimate the amount paid by the giver for each gift received recipients were then asked to place a value on each gift they received respondents were instructed to estimate the value of a gift as the amount of cash such that you are indifferent between the gift and the cash not counting the sentimental value of the gift p 1331 waldfogel measures the welfare yield of a gift as the difference between the recipient s valuation and her cost estimate of the gift based on 278 gifts reported waldfogel finds that gifts have an average yield of 87 1 percent indicating that gifts lose about 13 percent of their value in the exchange from giver to receiver when cash gifts are excluded the average yield falls further to 83 9 percent sh were intrigued enough by waldfogel s results to replicate his study contrary to waldfogel sh find that gift giving is actually welfare improving with an average yield of 214 percent median yield 111 percent they claim that a broader subject pool than that questioned by waldfogel explains the reversal concerned that undergraduates in an intermediate microeconomics class may be unrepresentative sh administered their survey to members of the general public at train stations and airports and to staff and graduate students enrolled in a biostatistics or an economics class at the harvard school of public health they also altered the question used to elicit respondents valuations of gifts received their survey question reads as follows p 1300 aside from any sentimental value if without the giver ever knowing you could receive an amount of money instead of the gift what is the minimum amount of money that would make you equally happy the change in wording from the amount of cash such that you are indifferent to the amount of money that would make you equally happy was prompted by a concern that indifference is a technical word familiar only to economists it remains to be seen whether sh s equally happy question is substantially equivalent to the indifference version of the question or whether they have introduced a greater change than they realize an additional methodological concern is that the cost estimates always precede respondents valuations in both studies order effects are well documented in the social psychology literature cost estimates may influence valuations in particular costs may serve as a judgmental anchor upon which to base value estimates reversing the order of the questions is a technique common to survey and experimental methods in the social sciences to balance the researcher s design and offset possible order effects ruffle department of economics ben gurion university p o b 653 beer sheva 84105 israel e mail bradley bgumail bgu ac il tykocinski department of behavioral sciences ben gurion university beer sheva 84105 israel e mail oritt bgumail bgu ac il we thank tomer bakalash for research assistance and sara solnick todd kaplan three anonymous referees of this journal and seminar participants at ben gurion university universite louis pasteur and the 1998 esa meetings in mannheim for comments 1 howard schuman and stanley presser 1981 provide a good starting point in this literature

three new empirical tests of the pollution haven hypothesis when environmental regulation is endogenous the validity of existing empirical tests of the pollution haven hypothesis phh is constantly under scrutiny due to two shortcomings first the issues of unobserved heterogeneity and measurement error in environmental regulation are typically ignored due to the lack of a credible traditional instrumental variable second while the recent literature has emphasized the importance of geographic spillovers in determining the location choice of foreign investment such spatial effects have yet to be adequately incorporated into empirical tests of the phh as a result the impact of environmental regulations on trade patterns and the location decisions of multinational enterprises remains unclear in this paper we circumvent the lack of a traditional instrument within a model incorporating geographic spillovers utilizing three novel identification strategies using state level panel data on inbound u s fdi relative abatement costs and other determinants of fdi we consistently find i evidence of environmental regulation being endogenous ii a negative impact of own environmental regulation on inbound fdi in pollution intensive sectors particularly when measured by employment and iii larger effects of environmental regulation once endogeneity is addressed neighboring environmental regulation is not found to be an important determinant of fdi

chinese investment in the eu renewable energy sector motives synergies and policy implications abstract this paper addresses three questions how have trade and investment in wind and solar sectors evolved between the eu and china in recent years is there a link between rising trade conflicts and trade and investment trends and what wider motivations and synergies can be identified in chinese investments in the eu s re sector to address these questions we analyze trade and investment data as well as qualitative data including information from media and company reports large increases in trade and investment were followed by rapid falls since 2012 13 trade tensions have not led to increases in investment rather the inverse we find that chinese investment in these two sectors is very concentrated in germany the key motivation for investment is market seeking although r d is also important especially for wind most investments are greenfield a preference that has persisted over time our qualitative analysis of several key acquisitions indicates that technology integration and the consolidation of capacities across the supply chain were key motivations in most of the cases studied we conclude with some policy orientations

bidding behavior and decision costs in field experiments i introduction positive opportunity costs of mental effort may invalidate the predictions of traditional models of rational or hyperrational agents conlisk 1996 uses deliberation costs as a recurring theme when discussing four important reasons for incorporating bounded rationality in economic models smith and walker 1993 and smith and szidarovszky 1999 present effort models that predict individual behavior will more closely match the predictions of rational behavior theories as 1 the stakes of the decision increase and 2 the decision costs decrease smith and walker 1993 find evidence of these two effects in a comprehensive review of 31 published laboratory experiments camerer and hogarth 1999 extend smith and walker s survey by examining 74 experimental papers and find evidence in favor of the cognitive effort theory noting that higher levels of incentives have the largest effects in judgment and decision tasks p 34 although the laboratory evidence is compelling there has been little verificati on of these predictions outside the laboratory 1 the present article fills this gap by examining field data from 214 multiunit sports card auctions carried out in an active marketplace on the floor of a sports card show we auctioned four types of trading cards with book values ranging from 3 to 70 providing significant variation in the stakes of the auction our auctions also included two distinct types of subjects some auctions had sports card dealers bidding against each other whereas others had individual card collectors as the participants this variation allows us to explore the second dimension of decision cost theory do dealers who commonly participate in sports card auctions and therefore likely require less effort to bid optimally bid more rationally than nondealers our measure of rational bidding comes from multiunit auction theory which predicts strategic demand reduction in uniform price auctions 2 for each type of bidder and each type of card we measure this demand reduction behavior in the uniform price auction relative to a control the multiunit vickrey 1961 auction where bidders are predicted to fully reveal their demands our sports card data generated from sales of 428 cards with a combined book value of nearly 10 000 provide two major insights first we find that the predicted strategic behavior is considerably greater when the auctioned cards have higher values second dealers exhibit more of the predicted strategic behavior than do nondealers for both lower and higher priced cards one conjecture to explain this finding is that nondealers may find that the cognitive effort required to bid strategically exceeds the benefits especially for low valued cards by contrast dealers have more experience with auctions and make their living by buying selling trading cards so their cognitive costs are likely much lower than those of nondealers these two findings are consistent with recent theoretical models of monetary rewards and decision costs and extend previous experimental evidence from the laboratory into the field ii experimental design as mentioned recent theoretical literature has suggested that demand reduction inherent in uniform price auctions with multiunit demand can induce inefficient allocations and possible reductions in auction revenue to avoid the inefficiencies associated with the uniform price auction theorists have identified an alternative mechanism the generalized vickrey auction which gives bidders a dominant strategy of revealing their true valuations for all units of the good in this multiunit vickrey auction as in the uniform price auction each bidder can submit up to n different sealed bids on individual units and the highest n bids are declared winners if a bidder submits one or more of the winning bids his or her price for the first unit equals the highest rejected bid submitted by someone else and his or her price for the kth unit equals the kth highest of the rejected bids submitted by others

conflicts of interest in the stock recommendations of investment banks and their determinants this study explores the phenomena associated with conflicts of interest particularly as they pertain to the brokerage and proprietary trading divisions of investment banks this distinguishes it from past studies which have researched conflicts of interest between underwriting and brokerage divisions we examine whether or not an investment bank issues buy recommendations to the market and buys sells the same recommended stocks through its proprietary trading division before after recommendations and if so to what extent this goes on we find that these conflicts of interest do exist and that these investment banks can profit from their recommendations in the short run

the association between accounting earnings and security returns for large and small firms abstract the differential information hypothesis advanced by atiase 1980 states that information production and dissemination by private parties for the purpose of identifying mispriced securities is an increasing function of firm size this study examines two corollaries of that hypothesis first security prices of large firms anticipate accounting earnings earlier than security prices of small firms second for a given level of unexpected earnings the cumulative abnormal returns of small firms exceed those of large firms the results are generally consistent with atiase s hypothesis

option listing and the stock price response to earnings announcements abstract we examine the effect of option listing on the immediate stock price response to earnings announcements contrary to prior studies using earlier data we find firms initiating option trading after 1986 fail to exhibit a significant decline in earnings response we then examine 420 firms initiating option trading during 1973 1993 in a series of tests controlling for market wide effects and changing firm size we find some evidence that option listing may actually increase the stock price response to earnings but no evidence listing reduces the response both longitudinal and cross sectional tests produce similar results

substitutability experience and the value disparity evidence from the marketplace abstract recent empirical evidence suggests that important disparities exist between willingness to pay and compensation demanded for the same good these results which clearly contradict closely held economic doctrines have led some influential commentators to call for an entirely new economic paradigm to displace conventional neoclassical theory this study examines the generality of these experimental findings by going to a well functioning marketplace and examining more than 350 individual decisions across two incentive compatible elicitation mechanisms the data suggest that behavior of individuals with intense experience approaches neoclassical predictions any observed wta wtp disparity amongst this group is negligible

the paradox of preferences regional trade agreements and trade costs in services abstract this paper analyzes the relationship between regional trade integration and trade costs in services industries the empirical analysis relies on the one hand on a dataset of theory consistent bilateral trade costs calculated for 55 countries over the period 1999 2009 and on the other hand on an analysis of services commitments in 66 regional trade agreements to which these countries are parties despite the proliferation of services rtas in the past decade we find that trade costs are only slightly lower due to the impact of these agreements in addition we find that the trade cost reductions that do take place tend to happen before the agreement is signed this mechanism is consistent with countries using services rtas as a way of locking in reforms finally we find that the preferential margin of services rtas is quite thin members and non members both see slightly lower trade costs when an rta is signed we discuss the possible explanations for these findings in terms of the nature of services rtas and their relationship with regulatory reform in signatory countries based on these results we argue that regionalism in the case of services seems relatively non discriminatory and does not lead to substantial trade preferences

in search of welfare improving gifts gift giving is thought to decrease welfare recipients are sometimes stuck with gifts they would not have purchased because the giver does not perfectly know the recipient s preferences and in kind gifts cannot be costlessly refunded such gifts are welfare reducing compared to giving cash if in addition recipients possess full information as to which stores carry their desired goods and the ability to reach these stores costlessly we replace these two latter assumptions with the more realistic assumptions of uncertainty about the location of goods and search costs in contrast to existing economic models gifts in our model enhance expected welfare moreover gift giving cannot be replaced by a profit maximizing trader nor the introduction of nearby specialty stores carrying gift goods we use our model to explain a number of stylized facts about gift giving the organization of retail trade and in kind government transfers 2008 elsevier b v all rights reserved

firm size and the information content of prices with respect to earnings abstract beaver lambert and morse 1980 suggest that prices may be useful in forecasting future earnings we explore the information content of prices with respect to earnings by focusing on firm size and its relation to the predictive accuracy of price based earnings forecasts firm size proxies for the amount of information and for the number of traders and professional analysts processing the available information about an enterprise our empirical results are consistent with the hypothesis that price based earnings will outperform univariate time series forecasts by a greater margin for larger firms than for smaller firms

the impact of bilateral investment treaties on fdi dynamics this paper investigates the impact of bilateral investment treaties bits on foreign direct investment fdi in transition countries fdi stocks are characterised by sluggish adjustment and a dynamic pattern this leads to biased estimates of the contemporaneous impact of bits on fdi in static models in our application the contemporaneous short run impact of bits amounts to 4 8 per cent and the long run effect to 8 9 per cent in the preferred model copyright 2007 the authors journal compilation blackwell publishing ltd 2007

fair value disclosures by bank holding companies abstract this paper examines the value relevance of fair value data disclosed under sfas 107 by banks for 1992 and 1993 collectively the evidence suggests differences between fair and book values of financial instruments are associated with market to book ratios however fair value disclosures for financial instruments other than securities are value relevant only in limited settings in addition only in 1992 are fair value variables associated with market to book ratios after incorporating existing historical cost information further analysis suggests the weaker 1993 results are not necessarily due to increased measurement error in fair value numbers

how low business tax rates attract mne activity municipality level evidence from germany most existing empirical evidences on the impact of profit taxation on multinational firm activity are based on cross country data one major drawback of such data is that countries differ not only with regard to taxes but also with other dimensions which might be hard to capture by means of observable characteristics we compile a database of more than 11 000 municipalities in germany to analyze the sensitivity of location decisions of foreign mnes in germany with respect to business tax rates which are levied directly by the municipalities we find that higher business tax rates have a negative effect on three alternative measures of mne activity after controlling for other determinants of firm location decisions the number of foreign mnes mne employment and mne fixed assets our results suggest that tax competition among regional entities for foreign investors is a game of a few in cross section instrumental variable regressions a one percent reduction of the municipal business tax rate equivalent to a decline by about 0 14 percentage points leads to an increase in the number of legally independent foreign owned firms by about 0 45 the average municipality would have to reduce its business tax rate by about 2 2 percentage points or 15 from its average level to attract one foreign mne hence municipalities need to be attractive in other dimensions to be able to use tax instruments to attract foreign firms at the margin

the impact of eu preferential trade agreements on foreign direct investment although north south preferential trade agreements ptas are expected to affect foreign direct investment fdi there is not much evidence to date on the impact of eu ptas on the pattern of fdi the aim of this study is to assess the impact of eu ptas on the outward stocks of fdi of the eu we estimate a model based on the knowledge capital theory of the multinational enterprise over the period 1995 2005 using a sample of 173 host countries explanatory variables include measures of the level of bilateral protection and a dummy to capture the impact of deep integration provisions of ptas a dynamic panel model with fixed effects is used in order to take into account the dynamic behaviour of fdi and the heterogeneity bias results show that eu fdi is both horizontal and vertical the level of eu protection affects fdi negatively while the impact of the tariffs applied by host countries varies across groups of partner countries deep integration provisions affect eu fdi positively

profit taxation and the mode of foreign market entry abstract this paper studies the role of profit taxation for an international firm s decision upon how to penetrate a foreign market through exports or through foreign direct investment fdi and local supply we show that with harmonized taxes the international firm may choose fdi even though this has welfare costs from a global point of view with tax competition the host country can enforce exporting instead of fdi this leads to a nash equilibrium associated with higher world welfare than harmonized taxes thus because of the effect on entry mode tax competition provides heretofore unexplored benefits as compared to tax harmonization

modeling gift choice the effect of uncertainty on price sensitivity abstractgift giving generates high revenues for retailers it is also marked with significant welfare or deadweight loss in that givers tend to pay more than the receivers valuation previous research has attributed this discrepancy to givers inaccurate predictions of the receivers preferences this research demonstrates that reduced price sensitivity is another important source of the deadweight loss givers use gift prices to signal the importance of their relationship with the receiver in order to demonstrate this mechanism the authors develop a new bayesian gift choice model that captures both preference predictions as well as the signaling value of price the model is estimated on two choice based conjoint studies for gift giving that allow for the manipulation of the giver s uncertainty about the receiver s preferences both studies show the strong signaling value of price especially when givers are uncertain about receivers preferences decomposition of the deadweight loss shows that the s

evolution of bilateral capital flows to developing countries at intensive and extensive margins motivated by the rise in capital flows to low income countries lics we examine the nature of these flows and the factors affecting foreign investors decision recognizing the presence of fixed investment costs we analyze capital flows at both intensive and extensive margins to fix ideas we resort to the gravity literature for the estimating relationships which we embed into a two tier econometric framework with cross sectional dependence our main finding is that market entry costs are statistically and economically very detrimental to lics we also obtain the gravity type relationship for the destination income unconditionally but not after conditioning on relevant variables as well as establish labor productivity as a robust attractor of capital inflows

unobserved tax avoidance and the tax elasticity of fdi abstract this paper investigates the tax responsiveness of multinational firms investment decisions in foreign countries distinguishing firms that are able to avoid taxes avoiders from those that are not non avoiders from a theoretical point of view the tax responsiveness of firms crucially depends on this distinction empirically however a firm s ability to avoid profit taxes is inherently unobservable to the researcher to address this problem we use a finite mixture modeling approach which allows us to distinguish avoiders from non avoiders stochastically from a mixture of distributions of the two types of firms using panel data on the universe of foreign affiliates of german multinational firms over the years 1999 2010 we find that investments of tax avoiders do not respond to host country profit taxes at all while those of non avoiders do about 11 of the affiliates are estimated to be able to avoid taxes these investments account for about 58 of the stock of foreign fixed assets held by german multinational firms abroad a one percentage point increase in the statutory corporate profit tax rate of a host country is found to reduce the fixed assets of non avoiders in that host country by 0 81

determinants of the informativeness of analyst research abstract we examine cross sectional determinants of the informativeness of analyst research i e their effect on security prices controlling for endogeneity among the factors affecting informativeness analyst reports are more informative when the potential brokerage profits are higher e g high trading volume high volatility and high institutional ownership and lower when information processing costs e g more business segments are high we also find that the informativeness of analyst research and informativeness of financial statements are complements

the trade off between foreign direct investments and exports the role of multiple dimensions of distance to serve foreign markets firms can either export or set up a local subsidiary through horizontal foreign direct investment fdi the conventional proximity concentration theory suggests that fdi substitutes for trade if distance between countries is large while exports become more important if scale economies in production are large this paper investigates empirically the effect of different dimensions of distance on the choice between exports and fdi we find that different dimensions of distance affect exports and fdi differently there is clear evidence of a proximity concentration trade off in geographical terms the share of fdi sales in total foreign sales increases with geographical distance the positive relation between import tariffs and fdi intensity provides further evidence for a trade off resulting from trade costs on the other hand the share of fdi decreases with language differences and cultural and institutional barriers the latter dimensions of distance thus affect fdi more strongly than exports 2011 blackwell publishing ltd

association between accounting performance measures and stock prices a test of the life cycle hypothesis abstract this paper posits that stock market response to two accounting performance measures sales growth and capital investment is a function of firm life cycle stage firms are grouped into various life cycle portfolios using dividend payout sales growth and age as predicted the empirical results indicate a monotonic decline in the response coefficients of unexpected sales growth and unexpected capital investment from the growth to the stagnant stages additional analysis suggests that this relation is not driven by a firm size effect risk differences or measurement error in the proxies for performance measures

prediction performance of earnings forecasts the case of u s multinationals prior accounting research has provided evidence of the information content of a company s actual or predicted accounting earnings prior studies have also found that factors such as firm size industry or systematic risk influence the accuracy of the earnings predictions this study investigates the accuracy and the consensus among forecasters of earnings estimates for u s domestic and u s multinational corporations companies were classified into a domestic or multinational type for this research following the criteria established by statement of financial accounting standards no 14 for required disclosure of foreign operations the empirical results indicate that the accuracy of earnings forecasts is significantly lower for purely domestic firms than for u s based multinationals likewise the level of consensus in earnings estimates submitted by financial analysts is significantly lower for u s domestic than for u s multinational firms

predicting accounting misconduct the role of firm level investor optimism motivated by a large literature on how firm specific resources such as leadership and management skills strategies organizational capabilities and intellectual properties drive firm performance we propose and find that heterogeneity in investor optimism regarding firm specific attributes plays a very important role in influencing the managerial propensity to manipulate financial statements when firm level investor optimism is moderate the incidence of accounting misconduct increases but it decreases when investors are highly optimistic further market reaction to the announcement of financial restatements is more negative when investors held more optimistic firm specific beliefs at the time of initial misstatement these findings are robust to alternative firm specific optimism measures linked to analysts general investors and unsophisticated individual investors controls for market wide consumer sentiment unexplained by macroeconomic factors economy wide and industry level optimism potential selection bias and reverse causality our analysis highlights the importance of firm level investor optimism in predicting preventing and detecting accounting misconduct

international differences in the timeliness conservatism and classification of earnings in this paper we analyze differences in the timeliness of income recognition between the u s and u k gaap financial reporting regimes building on previous work in the area we focus on the links between current reported earnings and current and past changes in market value in the light of basu 1997 we present a formal model in which the response of reported earnings to changes in market value varies according to whether the value change is good news or bad this model yields a number of insights with regard to the definition and measurement of earnings conservatism we also report evidence indicating that controlling for cross jurisdictional classification differences affects comparisons of earnings timeliness and earnings conservatism specifically we find that apparent differences in conservatism between the u s and u k accounting regimes are sensitive to the inclusion or exclusion of extraordinary items in u k accounting earnings recent research documents significant variation in the information content of earnings across international gaap regimes e g alford et al tlancaster university tuniversity of manchester the research support of the eco

fdi in space spatial autoregressive relationships in foreign direct investment abstract there are a number of theoretical reasons why foreign direct investment fdi into a host country may depend on the fdi in proximate countries such spatial interdependence has been largely ignored by the empirical fdi literature with only a couple recent papers accounting for such issues in their estimation this paper conducts a general examination of spatial interactions in empirical fdi models using data on us outbound fdi activity we find that estimated relationships of traditional determinants of fdi are surprisingly robust to inclusion of terms to capture spatial interdependence even though such interdependence is estimated to be significant however we find that both the traditional determinants of fdi and the estimated spatial interdependence are quite sensitive to the sample of countries one examines

the incremental information content of replacement cost earnings abstract the study explores the incremental explanatory power of replacement cost earnings variables derived from asr 190 data with respect to explaining cross sectional differences in security returns as such the study is a natural extension of previous research including analyses of the effect of security returns of asr 190 data at the time of disclosure investigations of cross sectional relationships between security returns and historical cost earnings and studies of multiple signals the basic finding is that pre holding gain net income provides no incremental explanatory powerm given knowledge of historical cost earnings however the converse does not hold taken together the findings are consistent with the contention that pre holding gain net income is a garbled version of historical cost earnings the basic finding is robust under several extensions of the initial research design the research design incorporates a two stage approach which permits a determination of the incremental explanatory power of collinear variables the findings are in contrast to those of a previous study by easman et al 1979 the nature of the difference in research design inducing the difference is identified potential reasons for the difference in findings are provided

earnings announcements and competing information abstract we investigate whether competing information primarily analyst reports reduces the usefulness of earnings announcements inconsistent with the view that information in analyst reports substitutes for earnings announcements we find a positive relation between absolute abnormal returns to the two types of disclosures this positive relation also characterizes subsequent period analyst reports relative to current period earnings announcements we also find that aggregate absolute reactions to both types of disclosures increased over 1986 1995 as a whole these results provide little support for the view that the informativeness of earnings announcements is eroded by competing information in the form of analyst reports

free trade agreements and foreign direct investment the role of endogeneity and dynamics this article studies the impact of free trade agreements fta on outbound foreign direct investment fdi from one perspective fta may promote fdi since fta aim to promote economic activity between countries however lower trade barriers may lower the incentive of firms to conduct fdi therefore the net impact is an empirical question using a panel of countries for the years 1990 2006 this article effectively controls for participation in an fta when analyzing the impact on outbound fdi the lengthy time series also allows us to examine effectively the dynamic nature of the relationship failing to account for endogeneity and dynamics would likely generate inaccurate conclusions regarding the impact of fta on outbound fdi our analysis finds that outbound fdi is either unrelated to participation in an fta or is negatively affected

measuring the interdependence of multinational firms foreign investments earlier work found evidence for geographic linkages of aggregate foreign direct investment across countries and country pairs from a theoretical point of view such linkages at the macroeconomic level may root in between firm as well as within firm linkages and originate from information spillovers across or within firms in exploring unknown markets and vertical linkages between production plants across different locations within the firm we use data on the universe of german multinational enterprises mnes to empirically explore how marginal investments at one foreign affiliate depend on investments at other affiliates within the same mne the empirical approach employs two channels or modes of cross affiliate interdependence mere geography capturing horizontal linkages through correlated learning and horizontal competition within the firm and input output relationships within or across industries which capture vertical linkages adding to earlier findings at the aggregate level we find evidence of a significant interdependence of investments within the firm in the firm level data at hand vertical linkages appear to be more important than horizontal ones investments at one location tend to stimulate investments at other locations of the same mne particularly if input linkages are strong the opposite seems to be true for output linkages beyond vertical linkages mere geographic proximity matters only to a minor extent this suggests that evidence of linkages through geographic closeness at aggregate data levels accrue mainly to reasons of vertical linkages within networks of affiliates jel c31 d22 f21 f23 f68 g31 h32

institutional differences and the direction of bilateral foreign direct investment flows are south south flows any different than the rest we explore the asymmetric effects of institutional differences on bilateral foreign direct investment fdi flows conditional on countries development levels previous experiences of foreign investors and bilateral trade relations the empirical results using bilateral fdi data from 134 countries during 1990 2009 suggest that institutional differences create entry barriers for foreign investors only in north south and south north directions and more so for the former furthermore southern investors appear to have a comparative advantage in institutionally different developing countries finally we find no evidence that investor experiences in other institutionally different countries or existing trade linkages negate the negative effect of institutional distance

wealth information acquisition and portfolio choice i solve with an approximation a grossman stiglitz economy under general preferences thus allowing for wealth effects because information generates increasing returns decreasing absolute risk aversion in conjunction with the availability of costly information is sufficient to explain why wealthier households invest a larger fraction of their wealth in risky assets one no longer needs to resort to decreasing relative risk aversion an empirically questionable assumption furthermore i show how to distinguish empirically between these two explanations finally i find that the availability of costly information exacerbates wealth inequalities copyright 2004 oxford university press

firm characteristics and analyst following abstract this paper examines the major determinants of the number of analysts following a firm a simple model of analyst following is proposed and several firm characteristics are suggested that are likely to influence the extent of a firm s analyst following by either affecting the aggregate demand for or supply of analyst services or both for the firm almost all of these characteristics are found to be strongly significant in affecting the extent of analyst following of firms and the empirical results generally accord well with economic intuition

a knowledge and physical capital model of international trade flows foreign direct investment and multinational enterprises abstract this paper addresses two important issues at the nexus of the literatures on international trade foreign direct investment fdi foreign affiliate sales fas and multinational enterprises mnes first the introduction of a third internationally mobile factor physical capital to the standard 2 2 2 knowledge capital model of mnes with skilled and unskilled labor allows us to resolve fairly readily the puzzle in the modern mne literature that foreign affiliate sales among two identical economies completely displace their international trade intra industry trade and intra industry fdi and fas can coexist for national and multinational firms with identical productivities in identical countries second the introduction also of a third country to the model suggests a formal n country theoretical rationale for estimating gravity equations of bilateral fdi flows and fas in a manner consistent with estimating gravity equations for bilateral trade flows

the impact of cash flow volatility on discretionary investment and the costs of debt and equity financing abstract we show that higher cash flow volatility is associated with lower average levels of investment in capital expenditures r d and advertising this association suggests that firms do not use external capital markets to fully cover cash flow shortfalls but rather permanently forgo investment cash flow volatility also is associated with higher costs of accessing external capital moreover these higher costs as measured by some proxies imply a greater sensitivity of investment to cash flow volatility thus cash flow volatility not only increases the likelihood that a firm will need to access capital markets it also increases the costs of doing so

information aggregation in a noisy rational expectations economy abstract this paper analyzes a general equilibrium model of a competitive security market in which traders possess independent pieces of information about the return of a risky asset each trader conditions his estimate of the return both on his own private source of information and price which in equilibrium serves as a noisy aggregator of the total information observed by all traders a closed form characterization of the rational expectations equilibrium is presented a counter example to the existence of fully revealing equilibrium is developed