the long run effects of unemployment monitoring and work search programs experimental evidence from the united kingdom this article examines the long run effects of the restart unemployment program in the united kingdom the program aimed at the long term unemployed involved a combination of tighter monitoring of benefit eligibility rules and increased job search assistance we compare the employment behavior of a treatment group who participated in the scheme with that of a randomly chosen control group for whom participation was delayed while there is little evidence of a long term benefit for women the unemployment rate among males in the treatment group was six percentage points lower than that of the control group 5 years after the initial experiment

dual labor markets efficiency wages and search this article presents an equilibrium model of a dual labor market firms are assumed to be identical ex ante and dualism arises endogenously the dual labor market outcome is supported by efficiency wage and search considerations firms choose wage effort requirement packages optimally given optimal search and effort choice by workers and vice versa we prove existence and investigate the occurrence and nature of dual labor market equilibria

unemployment insurance and subsequent job duration job matching versus unobserved heterogeneity the relationship between unemployment insurance ui benefit duration unemployment duration and subsequent job duration is investigated using a multi state duration model with state specific unobserved heterogeneity i examine two potential explanations for the negative correlation between unemployment and job spell durations ui benefits increase job matching quality the matching effect versus unobserved heterogeneity adverse selection the matching effect is found to be weak although new jobs accepted within 5 weeks of benefit termination seem to have a higher dissolution rate the negative correlation between unemployment and job duration is mostly explained by unobserved heterogeneity various simulations indicate that increasing the maximum benefit duration by one week will raise expected unemployment duration by 1 0 to 1 5 days but will raise expected job duration by 0 5 to 0 8 day only copyright 2001 john wiley sons ltd

the long term effects of job search requirements evidence from the uk jsa reform this paper investigates long term returns from unemployment compensation exploiting variation from the uk jsa reform of 1996 which implied a major increase in job search requirements for eligibility and in the related administrative hurdle search theory predicts that such changes should raise the proportion of non claimant nonemployed with consequences on search effort and labor market attachment and lower the reservation wage of the unemployed with negative effects on post unemployment wages i test these ideas on longitudinal data from social security records llmdb using a difference in differences approach i find that individuals who start an unemployment spell soon after jsa introduction as opposed to six months earlier are 2 5 3 more likely to move from unemployment into incapacity benefits spells and 4 5 less likely to have positive earnings in the following year this latter employment effect only vanishes four years after the initial unemployment shock also annual earnings for the treated individuals are lower than for the non treated these results suggest that while tighter search requirements were successful in moving individuals off unemployment benefits they were not successful in moving them onto long lasting or better jobs with fairly long lasting unintended consequences on a number of labor market outcomes

why are the wages of job changers so procyclical evidence on wage cyclicality shows job changers have more procyclical wages than job stayers previous work argued this arises because workers gain greater access to jobs in sectors such as manufacturing that offer high wages this article argues that workers who switch jobs in booms enter temporary jobs with unemployment risk and are merely compensated for subsequent losses i demonstrate that the two explanations can be distinguished using the relationship between unemployment insurance and wage cyclicality among job changers the evidence supports the compensation hypothesis that is that job changers might not experience real gains from higher paying jobs in booms

unemployment insurance and unemployment over time an analysis with event history data using event history data this paper analyzes the distribution of reemployment spell durations conditional on the completed length of the preceding contiguous spell of unemployment the model is used to infer how unemployment insurance through unemployment duration may affect the likelihood of reentering unemployment special attention is paid to the endogeneity between unemployment and reemployment duration and the sample information contained in the fact that some individuals obtain reemployment by recall as opposed to acceptance of a new job copyright 1995 by mit press

matching workers and jobs cyclical fluctuations in match quality using national longitudinal survey of youth data on tenure and wages this article analyzes the extent to which the level of job mismatching varies over the business cycle and how it is dealt with by the labor market i find significant cyclical variation in job match quality and an internalization of the variation by the labor market through wages mismatching occurs more during recessions but is primarily captured in starting wages the evidence suggests the cyclical phenomenon is one of general mismatching rather than an increased number of stopgap jobs during recessions

unemployment insurance and male unemployment duration in canada a model of unemployment duration is estimated with weekly micro data on canadian men entitlement provisions in the unemployment insurance program and demand conditions are found to have a significant effect on the probability of leaving unemployment the probability of a worker leaving unemployment declines with the duration of unemployment holding unemployment insurance entitlement constant when entitlement is allowed to vary the probability of leaving first falls and then generally rises with unemployment duration these results are robust with respect to allowing for person specific unobserved heterogeneity and alternative specifications of duration dependence

real wages over the business cycle evidence from panel data one topic on which keynes did not disagree with classical economists was the cyclical behavior of real wages keynes 1936 as well as various classical writers predicted that real wages should move countercyclically quoting the general theory p 17 in general an increase in employment can only occur through the accompaniment of a decline in real wages thus i am not disputing this vital fact which the classical economists have rightly asserted as indefeasible this prediction is based on the premise of competition and a given short run capital stock increases in employment then correspond to more intensive use of capital and through diminishing product lower real wages for this reason evidence by dunlop 1938 and tarshis 1939 that real wages move procyclically was viewed as paradoxical both dunlop and tarshis based their findings on an observed positive correlation between real and money wages which given the procyclical movement of money wages implies a positive correlation between

unemployment benefits and work incentives the us labour market in the great recession in the midst of sharply rising long term unemployment a series of unemployment benefit ub eligibility extensions raised the regular 26 week limit to as many as 99 weeks in some states in response leading economists have invoked the laws of economics to warn that the extensions may be responsible for much of the current unemployment crisis this prediction follows directly from a neoclassical vision in which jobs are taken only to generate the income necessary for desired levels of consumption and leisure workers can price themselves into a job by lowering wage demands and benefit eligibility rules are not effectively enforced so any income replacement must reduce work incentives and increase unemployment in contrast in a keynesian institutionalist vision there is job rationing in economic downturns worker identities are often closely linked to work there is recognition of long run scarring effects of extended unemployment and ub work rules are enforced so even generous income replacement is not likely to produce much voluntary unemployment especially in recessions this paper reviews the evidence on the effects of the ub extensions of 2008 9 the case for the orthodox prediction has relied heavily on extrapolating from pre great recession findings particularly through the use of selected spike at benefit exhaustion results from the early 1980s we conclude that the more recent spike evidence the recent shifts in the beveridge curve and the labour flows data unemployment to employment evidence offer little support for the orthodox disincentive view of the current unemployment crisis in the us if ub generosity has increased unemployment it has done so more by keeping workers attached to the labour market than by reducing the incentive to work copyright 2011 oxford university press

how should responsible investors behave keynes s distinction between entrepreneurship and speculation revisited this paper deals with keynes s distinction between entrepreneurship and speculation regarding business people in general and especially investors behaviour based on keynes s thoughts about financial markets it analyses how different motivations influence the decision making process of investors and its consequences for stock markets and the real economy and clarifies that keynes s considerations are still useful for understanding contemporary developments and risks in the financial system furthermore it points out that keynes s theories and policy recommendations should be understood in the context of his moral considerations especially relating to individual responsibility of investors finally keynes s moral thoughts can be taken as a foundation for a contemporary approach to investors responsibility

unemployment insurance recall expectations and unemployment outcomes this paper empirically examines the importance of explicitly accounting for the layoff rehire process in the analysis of unemployment outcomes in the united states we find that the spells of individuals who initially expect to be recalled account for much more of the unemployment of unemployment insurance ui recipients than do spells actually ending in recall our results indicate that the recall and new job escape rates from unemployment have quite different time patterns and are often affected in opposite ways by explanatory variables we also find that the probability of leaving unemployment both through recalls and new job finding increases greatly around the time that ui benefits lapse over the past fifteen years many studies have empirically analyzed the determinants of individual unemployment spell durations in the united states much of this literature has used a job search framework in which the unemployed are viewed as permanently displaced workers who are unattached to jobs the possibility of recall to a former job a process not requiring search has been omitted from explicit consideration in the majority of these studies 2 an explicit treatment of the layoff rehire process is necessary for a proper understanding of the determinants of unemployment durations and of the impacts of unemployment policies in the united states for at least three reasons first temporary layoffs in which workers are often rehired by their original employers are a quantitatively quite important feature of the u s labor market 3 second expectations concerning the likelihood of recall are likely to affect the responses of employers and unemployed workers to labor market interventions such as reemployment bonuses and subsidies

productivity gains from unemployment insurance this paper argues that unemployment insurance increases labor productivity by encouraging workers to seek higher productivity jobs and by encouraging rms to create those jobs we use a quantitative model to investigate whether this eect is comparable in magnitude to the standard moral hazard eects of unemployment insurance our model economy captures the behavior of the u s labor market for high school graduates quite well with unemployment insurance more generous than the current u s level unemployment would increase by a magnitude similar to the micro estimates but because the composition of jobs also changes total output and welfare would increase as well

does reducing unemployment insurance generosity reduce job match quality abstract this paper analyzes how a change in slovenia s unemployment insurance law affected the quality of jobs workers found after periods of unemployment taking advantage the natural experiment we show through difference in differences estimation results that reducing the potential duration of unemployment benefits had no detectable effect on wages on the probability of securing a permanent rather than a temporary job or on the duration of the post unemployment job

spiraling down into corruption a dynamic analysis of the social identity processes that cause corruption in organizations to grow to date theory and research on corruption in organizations have primarily focused on its static antecedents this article focuses on the spread and growth of corruption in organizations for this purpose three downward organizational spirals are formulated the spiral of divergent norms the spiral of pressure and the spiral of opportunity social identity theory is used to explain the mechanisms of each of these spirals our dynamic perspective contributes to a greater understanding of the development of corruption in organizations and opens up promising avenues for future research

estimating a structural search model the transition from school to work this paper presents a finite horizon search model that is econometrically implemented using all of the restrictions impli ed by the theory following a sample of male high school graduates fr om the youth cohort of the national longitudinal surveys from graduat ion to employment search parameters are estimated reservation wages and offer probabilities are estimated to be quite low simulations a re performed of the impact of changing the parameters on the expected duration of unemployment copyright 1987 by the econometric society

labor market effects of unemployment insurance design with the emergence of the great recession unemployment insurance ui is once again at the heart of the policy debate in this paper we review the recent theoretical and empirical evidence on the labor market effects of ui design we also discuss policy issues related to ui design including the structure of benefits the role of liquidity constraints and the pros and cons of a ui system in which the generosity of ui benefits is varying over the business cycle finally we identify potential areas of future research

the place of portfolio management in the keynesian canon recent publications such as the two volume oxford handbook of post keynesian economics harcourt and kreisler 2013 and the elgar companion to post keynesian economics king 2012 provide authoritative summaries of the current state of the art on a very wide range of relevant topics in particular the contents pages of these books define the field as seen by adherents the obvious implication being that those topics excluded have not yet acquired the necessary status by passing appropriate academic tests of relevance and coherence inter alia the focus of this article portfolio management is on one of these omitted topics starting from the fundamental recognition of uncertainty we examine the whole range of characteristics of the keynesian approach demonstrating the coherence and applicability of its multidimensional nature in the process pointing by contrast to the one dimensional sterility of the conventional approach our general conclusion is that there is a rightful place in the keynesian canon for portfolio management by which we mean not only investment management but also speculative management where these two qualifiers are used in the keynes graham sense

the british origins of the us endowment model the us endowment model is an approach to investing popularized by yale university that emphasizes diversification and active management of equity oriented illiquid assets the writings of the british economist john maynard keynes were a considerable influence on the investment philosophy of yale s chief investment officer david swensen how did keynes gain these insights we track keynes s experiences managing the king s college cambridge endowment and show how some of the lessons he learned remain relevant to endowments and foundations today

retrospectives john maynard keynes investment innovator john maynard keynes made a major contribution to the development of professional investment management based on detailed archival research at king s college cambridge we describe keynes investment philosophy his investment performance and the evolution of his investment approach as the manager of a large educational endowment his portfolios were actively managed and unconventional he was an investment innovator both in making a substantial allocation to the then new institutional asset class of common stocks as well as in championing value investing

both sides of the coin motives for corruption among public officials and business employees the aim of this study is to better understand why public officials and business employees engage in corruption insight into individual level explanations for corruption was obtained with the aid of a self report survey the results suggest that the most indicative factors of whether or not individuals are corruption prone are as follows the moral conviction they have to refrain from corruption perceptions of whether their colleagues approve of and engage in corruption and difficulties experienced in complying with the rules on corruption this result pattern was identical for public officials and business employees alike and as a consequence for both sides of corrupt acts the latter indicates that the same motives may not only underlie corruption in both private and public sectors but also the act of corruption in its active and passive forms the results of the current study do not provide strong support for the assumption that economic considerations expected costs and benefits are crucial in predicting corruption based on the findings that norms and the perceived opportunity to comply are dominant factors in explaining corruption this article focuses on the practical implications for the development of anti corruption strategies within both public and private sectors

benefit duration unemployment duration and job match quality a regression discontinuity approach summary we use a sharp discontinuity in the maximum duration of benefit entitlement to identify the effect of extended benefit duration on unemployment duration and post unemployment outcomes employment stability and re employment wages we address dynamic selection which may arise even under an initially random assignment to treatment estimating a bivariate discrete time hazard model jointly with a wage equation and correlated unobservables owing to the non stationarity of job search behavior we find heterogeneous effects of extended benefit duration on the re employment hazard and on job match quality our results suggest that the unemployed who find a job close to and after benefit exhaustion experience less stable employment patterns and receive lower re employment wages compared to their counterparts who receive extended benefits and exit unemployment in the same period these results are found to be significant for men but not for women copyright 2012 john wiley sons ltd

inter industry mobility and the cyclical upgrading of labor we investigate whether a market clearing model is consistent with industry employment and wage patterns related to the cyclical upgrading of labor we demonstrate that roy s 1951 market clearing

the role of ethical leadership versus institutional constraints a simulation study of financial misreporting by ceos this article examines the proposition that a major cause of the major financial accounting scandals that received much publicity around the world was unethical leadership in the companies and compares the role of unethical leaders in a variety of scenarios through the use of computer simulation models it shows how a combination of ceo s narcissism financial incentive shareholders expectations and subordinate silence as well as ceo s dishonesty can do much to explain some of the findings highlighted in recent high profile financial accounting scandals furthermore it shows that the nature and impact of ethical leadership depends greatly on the institutional setting and can be expected to vary greatly by country and culture in certain circumstances ethical leadership can have either a negligible or even opposite effect to that expected

interpreting panel data on job tenure tenure responses in the panel study of income dynamics psid and the national longitudinal surveys are often inconsistent with calendar time these inconsistencies pose special problems in the psid because job changes cannot be identified directly so researchers must infer them from error ridden tenure data we use alternative rules for partitioning psid data into jobs and then estimate several wage and mobility models to assess the sensitivity of parameter estimates to the partitioning method we also assess the importance of replacing raw tenure data with imputed measures that are internally consistent

flexible parametric estimation of duration and competing risk models in this paper we specify and estimate a flexible parametric proportional hazards model the model specification is flexibly parametric in the sense that the baseline hazard is non parametric while the effect of the covariates takes a particular functional form we also add parametric heterogeneity to the underlying hazard model specification we specify a flexible parametric proportional competing risks model which permits unrestricted correlation among the risks unemployment duration data are then analysed using the flexible parametric duration and competing risks specifications we find an important effect arising from the exhaustion of unemployment insurance and significantly different hazards for the two types of risks new jobs and recalls

unemployment insurance in europe unemployment duration and subsequent employment stability the disincentive effect of unemployment insurance on unemployment duration has been the focus of the empirical literature the potential effect of unemployment insurance on post unemployment outcomes which may be regarded as beneficial by improving job matching has attracted much less attention this paper provides evidence on the effect of unemployment benefits on unemployment and employment duration in europe using individual data from the european community household panel for eight countries country specific estimates based on multivariate discrete time duration models controlling for observed and unobserved individual heterogeneity suggest that although receiving benefits has an adverse effect in the sense of increasing unemployment duration there is also a positive effect by increasing subsequent employment duration this beneficial effect of unemployment insurance on employment stability is pronounced in countries with relatively generous benefit systems and for recipients who have remained unemployed for at least six months these findings are in line with theories suggesting a matching effect of unemployment insurance

seventy five years of investing for future generations university endowments invest for future generations so their strategy should reflect their long horizon we researched whether they really do behave like long term investors we examined the behav

keynes meets markowitz the trade off between familiarity and diversification we develop a model of portfolio choice to nest the views of keynes who advocates concentration in a few familiar assets and markowitz who advocates diversification we use the concepts of ambiguity and ambiguity aversion to formalize the idea of an investor s familiarity toward assets the model shows that for any given level of expected returns the optimal portfolio depends on two quantities relative ambiguity across assets and the standard deviation of the expected return estimate for each asset if both quantities are low then the optimal portfolio consists of a mix of familiar and unfamiliar assets moreover an increase in correlation between assets causes an investor to increase concentration in familiar assets flight to familiarity alternatively if both quantities are high then the optimal portfolio contains only the familiar asset s as keynes would have advocated in the extreme case in which both quantities are very high no risky asset is held nonparticipation this paper was accepted by brad barber teck ho and terrance odean special issue editors

do unemployment benefits promote or hinder job reallocation abstract according to recent and largely untested theories unemployment benefits ubs could improve the extent and quality of job reallocation even at the cost of increasing unemployment in this paper we use a new set of yearly panel data from a large number of countries to evaluate empirically the relationship between unemployment benefits and job reallocation unlike previous work assessing the effects of ubs on labor market stocks we focus on flows and rely on policy experiments notably the introduction from scratch of unemployment benefits in many countries we exploit the longitudinal nature of our data to lessen the potentially important selection endogeneity and omitted variable problems we find a positive sizable and significant effect of the introduction of ubs on job reallocation arising mainly from the job destruction margin although this effect fades away over time these findings appear to be robust to changes in the countries in the sample control variables or estimation methods we discuss to what extent our results are consistent with equilibrium matching models with or without endogenous sorting of workers into jobs providing entitlement to ubs and stochastic job matching

the impact of unemployment insurance generosity on match quality distribution abstract this paper investigates the impact of unemployment insurance ui generosity on the distribution of match tenure we show that more generous ui increases expected tenure reducing the mass of the lower tail of match duration and increasing the duration of matches available this impact is differentiated across education levels with the larger benefits accruing to the less educated

the match quality gains from unemployment insurance this paper assesses the benefits of unemployment insurance ui by measuring its effect in match quality we note that ui generosity should affect the decision to match or not and should therefore have some effect on match quality using nlsy data we analyze the relationship between postunemployment job tenure and measures of the state level ui generosity and the unemployment rate at the time the job is started we show that greater ui generosity leads to longer job tenure furthermore we find some evidence that this effect is more pronounced during busts ui having a limited dampening effect on the cyclical variation in match quality

cyclical fluctuations and sectoral reallocation evidence from the psid abstract this paper documents the correlation between permanent sectoral reallocation and the business cycle using data from the michigan panel study of income dynamics we find that the outflow of workers from goods to services accelerates during recessions the flow from services to stable employment in surables accelerates during booms we also document the contribution of sectoral reallocation to total unemployment permanent switchers account for about a quarter of the total weeks of unemployment during booms this proportion rises to nearly 40 duing recessions

some estimates of the effects of unemployment insurance on re employment duration abstract this paper examines how re employment spell durations are affected by the potential unemployment benefit period an ex ante notion and benefit exhaustion an ex post notion the extent to which benefit duration affects re employment duration is found to depend on the nature of the separation

unemployment compensation and high european unemployment a reassessment with new benefit indicators generous unemployment benefits lie at the heart of the conventional explanation for persistent high unemployment the effects of benefit generosity on work incentives are more ambiguous in a broader behavioural framework in which workers get substantial disutility from unemployment given income and know that unemployment has scarring effects in the future the micro evidence suggests modest effects of changes in generosity but there are reasons to doubt that the impacts on national unemployment rates are consequential the empirical case for the orthodox prediction comes from cross country regressions on the oecd s gross replacement rate grr but the published evidence is mixed and we find little support in the pattern of annual changes in the grr and the unemployment rate for oecd countries over the last three decades we take advantage of new and much improved net replacement indicators from the oecd which show little correlation with either the grrs or with unemployment and employment rates we conclude that the available evidence does not offer compelling support for the conventional view

real wages and the business cycle the objectives of this review are threefold 1 to characterize the empirical literature on the cyclical behavior of real wages 2 to identify the sources of the differences in results across studies and 3 to enumerate key factors that determine the cyclicality of real wages given a host of measurement and methodological issues drawing firm conclusions is difficult but several generalizations can be made the estimated cyclicality of real wages depends crucially on the time period of analysis and the choice of whether to examine the production or the consumption wage composition effects play an important but complicated role as well

on keynes as an investor as keynes himself admitted in 1938 his approach to portfolio management changed dramatically during the course of his career he abandoned speculation in favour of investment namely a careful selection of a few investments having regard to their cheapness and potential intrinsic value over a period of years ahead in other words he was applying the margin of safety a concept we particularly associate nowadays with benjamin graham who incorporated it inter alia into his magnum opus of 1934 security analysis an examination of the writings of keynes on the one hand and graham on the other reveals considerable overlap between not to say unity of their respective conceptions such is their complementarity that it is reasonable to speak of a keynes graham schema we conclude that this is the natural starting point for the 2011 kay review of uk equity markets as it should have been for the myners review of uk institutional investment a decade ago copyright oxford university press

j m keynes s investment performance a note aside from his contribution to the development of economic theory john maynard keynes is reputed to have had extraordinary skills as an investor in the stock market there has been no evidence to date however to support this widely accepted legend the purpose here is to examine empirically the investment performance of john maynard keynes in particular as first bursar of the chest fund at king s college cambridge over the period from 1927 to 1945 on the basis of modern performance evaluation measures the evidence indicates that keynes was an outstanding portfolio manager beating the market by a large margin

a general formula for the optimal level of social insurance in an influential paper baily 1978 showed that the optimal level of unemployment insurance ui in a stylized static model depends on only three parameters risk aversion the consumption smoothing benefit of ui and the elasticity of unemployment durations with respect to the benefit rate this paper examines the key economic assumptions under which these parameters determine the optimal level of social insurance i show that a baily type expression with an adjustment for precautionary saving motives holds in a general class of dynamic models subject to weak regularity conditions for example the simple reduced form formula derived here applies with arbitrary borrowing constraints durable consumption goods private insurance arrangements and search and leisure benefits of unemployment

cash on hand and competing models of intertemporal behavior new evidence from the labor market this paper presents new tests of the permanent income hypothesis and other widely used models of household behavior using data from the labor market we estimate the excess sensitivity of job search behavior to cash on hand using sharp discontinuities in eligibility for severance pay and extended unemployment insurance ui benefits in austria analyzing data for over one half million job losers we obtain three empirical results 1 a lump sum severance payment equal to two months of earnings reduces the job finding rate by 8 12 on average 2 an extension of the potential duration of ui benefits from 20 weeks to 30 weeks similarly lowers job finding rates in the first 20 weeks of search by 5 9 and 3 increases in the duration of search induced by the two programs have little or no effect on subsequent job match quality using a search theoretic model we show that estimates of the relative effect of severance pay and extended benefits can be used to calibrate and test a wide set of intertemporal models our estimates of this ratio are inconsistent with the predictions of a simple permanent income model as well as naive rule of thumb behavior the representative job searcher in our data is 70 of the way between the permanent income benchmark and credit constrained behavior in terms of sensitivity to cash on hand

changing consequences of job separation in the united states using the panel study of income dynamics the author examines the consequences of job loss between the periods 1976 81 and 1986 91 he finds stability in the overall incidence of job separation but a statistically significant increase in the incidence of involuntary job loss relative to quits for older workers he also finds that the consequences of involuntary job loss worsened the reemployment rate of workers who experienced involuntary job loss dropped from 67 in 1976 81 to 62 in 1986 91 and among those who found new jobs the odds of receiving a large wage cut rose from 9 in 1976 81 to 17 in 1986 91