the death of the pigovian tax policy implications from the double dividend debate recently economists appear to have abandoned a central precept of environmental policy optimal environmental taxes are equal to marginal environmental damage med as a consequence of labor market distortions optimal environmental taxes are now generally argued to typically lie below med and given realistic policy constraints on optimal tax reform sometimes well below med this new consensus is reflected in over a dozen papers published without rebuttal in prestigious economics journals in important survey articles and in policy oriented manuscripts how was it possible that such a radical transformation of economic thinking occurred with essentially no debate in the literature

exchange rate predictability in a changing world an expanding literature articulates the view that taylor rules are helpful in predicting exchange rates in a changing world however taylor rule parameters may be subject to structural instabilities for example in the aftermath of the global financial crisis this paper forecasts exchange rates using taylor rules with time varying parameters tvp estimated by bayesian methods focusing on the data from the crisis we improve upon the random walk for at least half and for as many as seven out of 10 of the currencies considered results are stronger when we allow the tvp of the taylor rules to differ between countries

incorporating technology buying behaviour into uk based long term domestic stock energy models to provide improved policy analysis the uk has a target for an 80 reduction in co2 emissions by 2050 from a 1990 base domestic energy use accounts for around 30 of total emissions this paper presents a comprehensive review of existing models and modelling techniques and indicates how they might be improved by considering individual buying behaviour macro top down and micro bottom up models have been reviewed and analysed it is found that bottom up models can project technology diffusion due to their higher resolution the weakness of existing bottom up models at capturing individual green technology buying behaviour has been identified consequently markov chains neural networks and agent based modelling are proposed as possible methods to incorporate buying behaviour within a domestic energy forecast model among the three methods agent based models are found to be the most promising although a successful agent approach requires large amounts of input data a prototype agent based model has been developed and tested which demonstrates the feasibility of an agent approach this model shows that an agent based approach is promising as a means to predict the effectiveness of various policy measures

green taxes can we protect the environment and improve the tax system at the same time on a cursory inspection public economics appears to provide a straightforward and compelling answer of yes to the question posed in the title to this paper as economists have long argued appropriately designed taxes can in principle at least efficiently restrain levels of polluting activities and in addition such taxes will generate revenues so that we can reduce rates on other forms of taxation that distort the functioning of the economy green taxes in short promise a double dividend they can both reduce excessive levels of pollution and increase the efficiency of the overall tax system at least so several economists have argued recently 17 20 but is this really so with the growing recognition of the enormous revenue potential of certain environmental taxes especially carbon taxes to address the problem of global warming public economists have returned to this question with a new round of research efforts directed both to understanding the properties of pollution taxes as revenue sources and to estimating their revenue potential and the magnitude of their effects on the economy and the newly emerging literature is producing some quite astonishing and very troubling findings in this paper i want to review this work and explore its implications when viewed in relation to some other research it appears to suggest that most forms of regulatory activity at least those that increase the costs of the regulated activities may have hitherto unappreciated costs of a stunning magnitude what many of us would have taken to be second order side effects of environmental and other regulatory policies can be of a magnitude that compromises to a significant extent their welfare enhancing properties having reviewed this body of work i wish also to explore some issues in the political economy of green taxes it is helpful to begin by briefly putting the issue in historical perspective

time varying dynamics of the real exchange rate an empirical analysis summary we use a time varying structural vector autoregression to investigate evolving dynamics of the real exchange rate for the uk euro area and canada we show that demand and nominal shocks have a substantially larger impact on the real exchange rate after the mid 1980s real exchange rate volatility relative to fundamentals also shows a marked increase after this point in time however there is some evidence suggesting a closer business cycle co movement of the real exchange rate and fundamentals simulations from an open economy dsge model show that these results are consistent with a decline in exchange rate pass through copyright 2012 john wiley sons ltd

consumer demand for green power and energy efficiency abstract this article examines reported willingness to pay for electric utility investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency resources using the results of deliberative polls conducted by electric utilities in texas 1 age education and salary tend to affect reported willingness to pay for utility investments in these resources intensive exposure to information about energy resource issues led to an increase in the number of respondents interested in paying a modest premium to support investments in both renewable energy resources and energy efficiency however average reported premiums actually declined following the polls as very high outlier responses moved to more reasonable values following the polls these results support the contention that informed dialogue about energy alternatives will result in broader interest in providing a modest level of support for these resources

environmental policy public finance and the labour market in a second best world abstract environmental and tax policies and the optimal provision of clean and dirty public goods are analysed within the context of a second best framework of optimal taxation households consume both clean and dirty commodities degradation of the natural environment occurs due to the consumption of dirty private and public goods but can be offset when the government engages in abatement activities increased environmental concern implies a higher dirt tax a lower tax on labour less employment more public abatement and a cleaner environment if the elasticity of substitution between private consumption commodities and leisure is large and that between clean and dirty goods is small public consumption may expand while private consumption contracts otherwise public consumption falls

carbon taxation when climate affects productivity optimal carbon taxation is evaluated in a model where climate change affects productivity with a numerical us economy model with preexisting taxes the optimal carbon tax is found to exceed marginal social damage by 53 percent and marginal private damage the sum of households marginal willingness to pay by 73 percent the welfare gain from optimal carbon taxation is estimated at 3 58 billion per year when marginal damages are 40 ton employment also increases setting the carbon tax at the pigouvian rate raises welfare by only 3 17 billion the contrasting results in the tax interaction literature are due to the use of marginal private damage when applied to amenity externalities

effects of carbon taxes in an economy with prior tax distortions an intertemporal general equilibrium analysis abstract this paper analyzes the costs of carbon taxes in a model that recognizes interactions between this tax and pre existing taxes first we examine the extent to which costs of a u s carbon tax are reduced when its revenues finance cuts in income taxes such use of revenues significantly reduces but does not eliminate the overall policy costs the positive overall costs reflect the carbon tax s focus on intermediate inputs and its relatively narrow base in comparison with income taxes we also examine the sensitivity of the carbon tax s costs to the level of pre existing taxes for any given use of revenues welfare costs rise significantly with pre existing tax rates indicating that models disregarding pre existing taxes may substantially understate the costs of new environmental tax initiatives

optimal environmental taxation from society s perspective much has been made recently of comparisons between the optimal environmental tax and the marginal social damage from pollution when moving from a first best setting to a second best setting involving distortionary taxes bovenberg and de mooij parry bovenberg and goulder generally speaking the recent literature observes that results for a first best setting may not be valid in a secondbest setting the present analysis finds that this same general theme applies when defining social values and in particular when expressing the social marginal rate of substitution mrs between the environment and income on which the definition of marginal social damage msd is based we find that a commonly used expression for msd involving the sum of individuals private marginal rates of substitution between the environment and income is only equal to the social mrs at the first best optimum in a second best setting with distortionary taxes this expression is no longer equal to the social mrs and thus does not provide a consistent measure of relative values from society s perspective when msd is defined based on general analytical expressions for the social mrs ones that are valid in both first best and secondbest settings the optimal environmental tax is found generally to rise above msd as we move from a first best to a second best setting these results are fully consistent with the intuition of revenue recycling and the double dividend

the present value criterion and environmental taxation the suboptimality of first best decision rules this paper examines the links between environmental taxes and distortionary taxation in a dynamic model of climate change and economic growth under first best conditions labor and capital would remain untaxed and carbon dioxide emissions would be taxed at a rate equal to the present value marginal cost they impose on future society setting the discount rate equal to the marginal productivity of capital under secondbest conditions however this decision rule substantially understates optimal emissions taxes when the resulting revenues are used to provide targeted cuts in distortionary taxes conversely relatively low emissions taxes are economically justified given lump sum revenue recycling

changing monetary policy rules learning and real exchange rate dynamics when the exchange rate is priced by uncovered interest parity and central banks set nominal interest rates according to a reaction function such as the taylor rule the real exchange rate will be determined by expected inflation and the output gap or the unemployment gap of the home and foreign countries this paper examines the implications of these taylor rule fundamentals for real exchange rate determination because the true parameters in central bank policy rules are unknown to the public and change over time the model is presented in the context of a least squares learning environment this simple learning model captures the volatility and the major swings in the real deutschemark euro dollar exchange rate from 1976 to 2007

the welfare effects of environmental taxation recent literature has investigated whether the welfare gains from environmental taxation are larger or smaller in a second best setting than in a first best setting this question has mainly been addressed indirectly by asking whether the second best optimal environmental tax is higher or lower than the first best pigouvian rate even this indirect question has itself been approached indirectly comparing the second best optimal environmental tax to a proxy for its first best value marginal social damage msd on closer examination however msd becomes ambiguously defined and variable in a second best setting making it an unreliable proxy for the pigouvian rate given these observations the current analysis reevaluates these welfare questions and finds that when compared directly to its first best value the second best optimal environmental tax generally rises with increased revenue requirements even in cases where the second best environmental tax is lower than its first best value the welfare gains may be greater than in a first best setting these results suggest that the marginal fiscal benefit revenue recycling effect exceeds the marginal fiscal cost tax base effect over a range of environmental tax rates that for benchmark models extends above the first best pigouvian rate these findings reinforce the intuition that environmental policy complements rather than competes with the provision of other public goods

do customer information programs reduce household electricity demand the irish program abstract we study empirically the effectiveness of a customer information program to decrease energy demand by increasing efficient electricity use this demand side management dsm program aims at reducing the lack of information on the customers side that is documented in related literature we study the irish dsm program which is particularly well suited to investigate this issue as strategic behavior is ruled out in this setting for both customers and suppliers on the customers side because information programs allow only for a limited substitution of own effort on the producers side because the specificity of the irish case left no room for strategic behavior we find that providing customers with information reduced overall electricity demand by roughly 7 as well as reducing demand fluctuations over the year further we find that the dsm program had a larger impact upon long run demand with consumers short run demand behavior not being changed significantly

justifying the first order approach to principal agent problems it is of interest to know when the incentive compatibility conditio n in principal agent problems can be replaced by the condition that the agent s expected utility be stationary in effort the mirrlees rogerson conditions do not work if the principal can observe more than one observable statistic also the mirrlees rogerson assumption that the distribution function of output is convex in the agent s action is unsatisfactory even in the context of the basi c model it is too restrictive the paper presents a suite of conditio ns that are applicable to the multistatistic case and replaces the objectionable convex distribution function assumption copyright 1988 by the econometric society

pollution taxes and revenue recycling abstract discussions of environmental policy and the tax system have emphasized the value of pollution tax revenues which can be used to reduce other tax distortions in the economy however by raising private marginal production costs environmental taxes also tend to reduce gdp and exacerbate the welfare costs of conventional taxes for environmental taxes in consumption goods industries the net welfare change from these two effects is negative unless this good is a relatively weak substitute for leisure an estimate for the optimal pollution tax with full revenue recycling is 63 to 78 of marginal environmental damages

accounting for exchange rate variability in present value models when the discount factor is near 1 a well known stylized fact about nominal exchange rates among low inflation advanced countries particularly u s exchange rates is that their logs are approximately random walks michael i mussa 1979 is most frequently cited for observing this regularity in a famous pair of papers richard a meese and kenneth rogoff 1983a b found that the structural models of the 1970 s could not beat a random walk in explaining exchange rate movements recently some authors menzie chinn and meese 1995 nelson mark 1995 mark and donggyu sul 2001 have argued that the models can outforecast the random walk at long horizons but a comprehensive recent study by yin wong cheung et al 2003 documents that no model consistently outperforms a random walk why one obvious explanation is that the macroeconomic variables that determine the exchange rate themselves follow random walks if the log of the nominal exchange rate is a linear function of forcing variables that are random walks then it will inherit the random walk property the problem with this explanation is that the economic fundamentals proposed in the most popular models of exchange rates do not in fact follow simple random walks one resolution to this problem is that there may be some other fundamentals ones that have been proposed in some models but are not easily measurable or ones that have not yet been proposed at all that are important in determining exchange rates if these unobserved fundamentals follow random walks and dominate the variation in exchange rate changes then exchange rates will nearly be random walks even if the standard observed fundamentals are not in engel and west 2003a hereinafter ew we propose an alternative explanation we consider linear models of the exchange rate that are in the asset market approach to exchange rates these models emphasize the role of expectations of future economic fundamentals in determining the current exchange rate the exchange rate expressed as the home currency price of foreign currency in this paper can be written as a discounted sum of the current and expected future fundamentals

a bibliometric review energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in the residential sector residential sector has been one key sector for reducing its greenhouse gas emissions due to its significant contribution to global warming researchers in different countries have studied household energy consumption patterns and greenhouse gas emissions in order to promote low carbon lifestyles however few review papers have been published in this regard leading to a lack of systematic understanding on the related research achievements hence by using a bibliometric approach this paper aims to review the existing literature and examine the evolution of such a field so that the research trends can be uncovered including popular research methods citation analysis is performed to assess the influence of most productive journals countries territories and authors network analysis is also conducted to evaluate the relationship among different countries territories authors and keywords research outcomes of this paper present a comprehensive research picture on residential energy consumption and corresponding greenhouse gas emissions ree related papers published from 1997 to 2016 the most productive journals countries territories authors are also analyzed based on citation analysis and network analysis in addition results also revealed that behavioral analysis input output analysis life cycle assessment and cost benefit analysis are the most commonly used methods in this field results obtained from this study can provide valuable information for researchers interested in the ree related field

the behavioural economics of climate change this paper attempts to bring some central insights from behavioural economics into the economics of climate change in particular it discusses i implications of prospect theory the equity premium puzzle and time inconsistent preferences in the choice of discount rate used in climate change cost assessments and ii the implications of various kinds of social preferences for the outcome of climate negotiations several reasons are presented for why it appears advisable to choose a substantially lower social discount rate than the average return on investments it also seems likely that taking social preferences into account increases the possibilities of obtaining international agreements compared to the standard model however there are also effects going in the opposite direction and the importance of sanctions is emphasized

when can carbon abatement policies increase welfare the fundamental role of distorted factor markets abstract this paper employs analytical and numerical models to assess the welfare effects of a revenue neutral carbon tax and nonauctioned carbon emissions permits taking into account preexisting tax distortions in factor markets the presence of preexisting taxes significantly raises the general equilibrium costs of both policies this cost increase is much greater under emissions permits since this policy does not generate revenues to reduce distortionary taxes under our central estimates emissions permits cannot increase welfare unless environmental damages exceed about 18 per ton of carbon in contrast an appropriately scaled carbon tax is welfare improving so long as environmental damages are positive

optimal environmental taxation in the presence of other taxes general equilibrium analyses this paper examines the optimal setting of environmental taxes in economies where other distortionary taxes are present we employ analytical and numerical models to explore the degree to which in a second best economy optimal environmental tax rates differ from the rates implied by the pigovian principle according to which the optimal tax rate equals the marginal environmental damages both models indicate contrary to what several analysts have suggested that the optimal tax rate on emissions of a given pollutant is generally less than the rate supported by the pigovian principle moreover the optimal rate is lower the larger are the distortions posed by ordinary taxes numerical results indicate that previous studies may have seriously overstated the size of the optimal carbon tax by disregarding pre existing taxes this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

increasing carbon and material productivity through environmental tax reform abstract environmental tax reform etr a shift in taxation towards environmental taxes has been implemented on a small scale in a number of european countries this paper first gives a short review of the literature about etr an appendix briefly describes the model used for a modelling exercise to explore through scenarios with low and high international energy prices the implications of a large scale etr in the european union sufficient to reach the eu s emission reduction targets for 2020 the paper then reports the results of the exercise the etr results in increased carbon and materials but reduced labour productivity with the emission reductions distributed across all sectors as a reduction in the demand for all fossil fuels there are also small gdp increases for most but not all eu countries for all the scenarios and for the eu as a whole both the environmental and macroeconomic outcomes are better with low than with high energy prices because the former both increases the scale of the etr required to reach the targets and reduces the outflow of foreign exchange to pay for energy imports etr emerges from the exercise as an attractive and cost effective policy for environmental improvement

government control or low carbon lifestyle analysis and application of a novel selective constrained energy saving and emission reduction dynamic evolution system abstract this paper explores a novel selective constrained energy saving and emission reduction eser dynamic evolution system analyzing the impact of cost of conserved energy cce government control low carbon lifestyle and investment in new technology of eser on energy intensity and economic growth based on artificial neural network the quantitative coefficients of the actual system are identified taking the real situation in china for instance an empirical study is undertaken by adjusting the parameters of the actual system the dynamic evolution behavior of energy intensity and economic growth in reality are observed with the results in perfect agreement with actual situation the research shows that the introduction of cce into eser system will have certain restrictive effect on energy intensity in the earlier period however with the further development of the actual system carbon emissions could be better controlled and energy intensity would decline in the long run the impacts of cce on economic growth are positive government control and low carbon lifestyle play a decisive role in controlling eser system and declining energy intensity but the influence of government control on economic growth should be considered at the same time and the controlling effect of low carbon lifestyle on energy intensity should be strengthened gradually while the investment in new technology of eser can be neglected two different cases of eser are proposed after a comprehensive analysis the relations between variables and constraint conditions in the eser system are harmonized remarkably a better solution to carry out eser is put forward at last with numerical simulations being carried out to demonstrate the results

labor supply and the double dividend abstract a series of recent articles have argued that environmental taxes and cap and trade permit systems generate large distortions in the labor market the claim is made that the higher prices for dirty goods induced by these incentive based systems generate a tax interaction effect leading to reductions in labor supply that are generally on net welfare reducing for this reason it is argued a double dividend seldom exists however price level increases both by lowering family income and by reducing cross spousal wage substitution effects will tend to have offsetting positive impacts on labor supply these effects are large enough to convert negative labor supply responses to rising prices into positive ones the empirical literature also supports a positive relationship between price level increases and labor supply these observations cast doubt on a central critical assumption underlying the critique of the double dividend in the tax interaction effect literature

the impact of household behavioral changes on ghg emission reduction in lithuania abstract it is commonly understood that households must change their behavior to reduce problems related increased energy consumption and climate change therefore in the search of cheap ghg emission reduction measures households are an important target group because they are responsible for more than 20 of total energy consumption in developed countries in addition waste management and responsible consumption of products are the key issues in ghg emission reduction the aim of the paper is to assess ghg emission reduction potential in households in terms of behavioral changes towards sustainable consumption the review of literature on analysis of households behavioral changes impact on ghg emission reduction was performed the daily survey of household agenda and energy use records were performed in lithuania for two scenarios baseline and ghg emission reduction scenario including energy saving ghg emission reduction potential in household was assessed based on daily survey data and energy consumption records by applying carbon calculator based on modified coefficients evaluated ghg emission reduction potential in households was compared with ghg emission reduction potentials in other sectors of lithuania based on analysis performed in the paper the tools to promote household behavioral changes towards sustainable consumption were proposed

revenue raising vs other approaches to environmental protection the critical significance of pre existing tax distortions using analytical and numerical general equilibrium models we show that preexisting factor taxes produce a tax interaction effect that increases the costs of pollution taxes and quotas under policies that raise revenue and recycle it through cuts in marginal factor tax rates this effect is partially offset by a revenue recycling effect grandfathered pollution quotas such as those used under the 1990 clean air act amendments to regulate electric utilities so2 emissions do not benefit from this offset preexisting taxes raise this regulation s cost by over 70 more than half of this additional cost could be avoided by auctioning quotas and exploiting the revenue recycling effect

would developing country commitments affect us households support for a modified kyoto protocol abstract would us households be willing to pay more to support a modified kyoto protocol mkp if developing countries had binding future limits on greenhouse gas production we explore this question using data from a unique set of national internet samples and web based surveys using an advisory referendum format the contingent valuation method is applied to estimate annual household willingness to pay wtp for us senate ratification of the kyoto protocol for a split sample treatment the basic kyoto protocol bkp control group versus a mkp that includes limits on future greenhouse gas production for major developing countries treatment group the results indicate that the treatment significantly increases the probability of a yes vote on the advisory referendum econometric modeling results provide evidence that the mkp significantly increases us households median wtp to support the treaty