the home bias of the poor foreign asset portfolios across the wealth distribution abstract this paper documents how the share of foreign stocks in us household portfolios rises with the ratio of financial wealth to non financial income this is both because wealthier households are more likely to participate in foreign asset markets and because portfolio shares of participants increase with financial wealth but decrease with non financial income a simple standard two country general equilibrium model shows that hedging of terms of trade movements and non financial income risk produces non trivial heterogeneity in portfolios across the wealth and income distribution within countries that is qualitatively in line with this evidence

capital flow controls international asset pricing and investors welfare a multi country framework this paper investigates the impact of capital flow restrictions on the pricing of securities on the optimal portfolio composition for investors of different nationalities and on their welfare under capital flow controls the equilibrium price of a security is determined jointly by its international and national risk premiums and investors acquire nationality specific portfolios along with a market wide proxy for the world market portfolio removal of investment barriers generally leads to an increase in the aggregate market value of the affected securities and all investors favor a move toward market integration introduction of different types of index funds in the world market generally increases world market integration and investor welfare in recent years the international capital markets have undergone numerous important changes that have increased the international linkage of national markets these changes include the creation of national index funds e g mexico korea taiwan india france and scandinavia and selective liberalization e g brazil india korea sweden and japan despite their potential impact on the national economies and global finance it is not clear what consequences these integrating changes entail for example is welfare increased by allowing cross border investment that is restricted to purchasing the entire national portfolio of which the national index fund is a class unfortunately with the exception of subrahmanyam 1975a who studies the pricing and welfare effects of fully integrating heretofore completely segmented markets other international asset pricing models that incorporate capital flow restrictions for instance black 1974 stulz 1981b lessard et al 1983 errunza and losq 1985 cooper and kaplanis 1986 and eun and janakiramanan 1986 analyze the pricing but not the welfare effects of investment barriers to analyze systematically the welfare implications of various structural changes in the current market environment this paper follows the lead of subrahmanyam and recasts the analysis in two important respects

an institution based view of international business strategy a focus on emerging economies leveraging the recent research interest in emerging economies this perspective paper argues that an institution based view of international business ib strategy has emerged it is positioned as one leg that helps sustain the strategy tripod the other two legs consisting of the industry and resource based views we then review four diverse areas of substantive research 1 antidumping as entry barriers 2 competing in and out of india 3 growing the firm in china and 4 governing the corporation in emerging economies overall we argue that an institution based view of ib strategy in combination with industry and resource based views will not only help sustain a strategy tripod but also shed significant light on the most fundamental questions confronting ib such as what drives firm strategy and performance in ib

learning and control in a changing economic environment abstract in this paper we investigate optimal bayesian learning and control with lagged dependent variables and time varying unknown parameters we assess both the performance of alternative decision rules as in the computationally oriented dual control literature as well as the dynamics of learning and convergence of beliefs as in the more theoretically oriented bayesian learning literature our numerical results indicate that the optimal decision rule involves a noticeable degree of experimentation for moderate to large levels of uncertainty in most situations though the optimal rule will remain less activist than a certainty equivalent rule and induce gradualism exceptions occur when the process to be controlled is near the deterministic steady state in this situation we find that the decision maker will repeatedly undertake costly experiments the extent of optimal experimentation is lower if the unknown parameter is perceived to vary over time in contrast to the fixed parameter case however parameter uncertainty is continually renewed and the incentive to experiment never ceases

home bias and cross border taxation abstract the relationship between cross border taxation and free float home bias is examined this explicitly recognizes that insider shares are unavailable to foreigners other important explanations for home bias information asymmetry behavioural and governance issues are controlled when examining the impact of cross border tax variables in our sample of countries about sixty percent eighty percent withhold taxes on realized capital gains dividends of foreign investors and about thirty percent of the mature economies provide imputation of taxes paid on dividend income by domestic corporations dividend imputation is a statistically significant impediment to cross border equity flows a tax credit variable for foreign taxes paid on dividends is constructed and found to be statistically significant in reducing home bias a relatively high foreign tax rate that cannot be offset by tax credits is found to significantly increase home bias these results hold for float adjusted home bias and traditional international portfolio home bias

tastes and technology in a two country model of the business cycle explaining international trade on international financial markets allows people to insure country specific risk and smooth consumption intertemporally equilibrium models of business cycles with trade on global financial markets typically yield international consumption correlations near one and excessive volatility of investment the authors incorporate nontraded goods in the model and find that the implications for aggregate consumption investment and the trade balance are consistent with business cycle properties of industrialized countries however the model driven by technology shocks alone yields counterfactual implications for comovements between consumption and prices at the sectoral level taste shocks produce price quantity relationships more consistent with the data copyright 1995 by american economic association

active learning and optimal climate policy this paper develops a climate economy model with uncertainty irreversibility and active learning whereas previous papers assume learning from one observation per period or experiment with control variables to gain additional information this paper considers active learning from investment in monitoring specifically in improved observations of the global mean temperature we find that the decision maker invests a significant amount of money in climate research far more than the current level in order to increase the rate of learning about climate change this helps the decision maker make improved decisions the level of uncertainty decreases more rapidly in the active learning model than in the passive learning model with only temperature observations as the uncertainty about climate change is smaller active learning reduces the optimal carbon tax the greater the risk the larger is the effect of learning the method proposed here is applicable to any dynamic control problem where the quality of monitoring is a choice variable for instance the precision at which we observe gdp unemployment or the quality of education

trying to explain home bias in equities and consumption investors hold a substantially larger proportion of their wealth portfolios in domestic assets than standard portfolio theory would suggest a phenomenon called equity home bias in the absence of this bias investors would optimally diversify domestic output risk using foreign equities therefore consumption growth rates would tend to co move across countries even when output growth rates do not empirically however consumption growth rates tend to have a lower correlation across countries than do output growth rates a phenomenon i call consumption home bias in this paper i discuss these two biases and their potential relationship as suggested by the literature

competitive position managerial ties and profitability of foreign firms in china an interactive perspective despite the prominence of the competitive strategy perspective it remains unclear whether foreign firms entering china can still adopt a differentiation or low cost position to achieve superior performance given the unique market and institutional environments in china alternatively should foreign firms follow conventional wisdom and actively build managerial ties with government officials and business community to enhance their performance this study develops and tests an interactive perspective that highlights the moderating effects of managerial ties on competitive position performance relationships the results indicate that though both differentiation and low cost positions foster foreign firm profitability the benefit of a differentiation position is conditional on political and business ties in different directions political ties impede and business ties strengthen the positive effect of a differentiation position on foreign firms profitability moreover foreign firms benefit from their use of business ties but their profitability suffers when they rely increasingly on the heavy use of political ties

risk taking global diversification and growth this paper develops a continuous time stochastic model in which international risk sharing can yield substantial welfare gains through its effect on expected consumption growth the mechanism linking global diversification to growth is an attendant world portfolio shift from safe low yield capital to riskier high yield capital the presence of these two types of capital captures the idea that growth depends on the availability of an ever increasing array of specialized hence inherently risky production inputs calibration exercises using consumption and stock market data imply that most countries reap large steady state welfare gains from global financial integration copyright 1994 by american economic association

interest rates and currency prices in a two country world abstract this paper is a theoretical study of the determination of prices interest rates and currency exchange rates set in an infinitely lived two country world which is subject both to stochastic endowment shocks and to monetary instability formulas are obtained for pricing all equity claims nominally denominated bonds and currencies and these formulas are related to earlier closely related results in the theories of money finance international trade

stabilization theory and policy 50 years after the phillips curve this paper discusses the impact of a w h phillips seminal work in macroeconomic stabilization policy on subsequent developments in that field we begin by reviewing the various stabilization rules adopted by phillips and show how these relate to optimal stabilization rules that emerge from linear quadratic optimization problems most of the early st abilization literature was associated with backward looking variables the development of rational expectations in the 1960 s and 1970 s posed a challenge for stabilization policy this arose from the role of forward looking inflationary expectations in the phillips curve and the effect this had on the design of optimal stabilization rules through issues such as the lucas critique and the time consistency of policy we also briefly comment on a long standing debate pertaining to the merits of fixed policy rules versus discretionary or optimal policy the latter part of the paper discusses some of the more contemporary aspects of stabilization policy thereby serving to illustrate the durability of phillips contributions

pooling risk among countries suppose that international sharing risk worldwide or with large numbers of countries were costly how much risk sharing could be gained in small sets or pools of countries to answer this question we compute the means and variances of poolwide gross domestic product growth for all possible pools of any size drawn from a sample of 74 countries and compare them with the means and variances of consumption growth in each country individually from the difference we infer potential diversification and welfare gains as much as two thirds of the first best full worldwide welfare gains can be obtained in groupings of as few as seven countries the largest potential gains arise from pools consisting of countries in different regions and including countries with weak institutions we argue that international risk sharing fails to emerge because the largest potential gains are among countries that do not trust each other s willingness and ability to abide by international contractual obligations

why do stocks and consumption imply such different gains from international risk sharing abstract estimates of the gains to international risk sharing based upon stock returns tend to find dramatically higher gains than do estimates from consumption based models in this paper i examine the reasons for these differences using a common theoretical framework for both approaches i find that the differences are largely due to the much higher variability of stock returns and its implied intertemporal substitution in marginal utility also contrary to conventional wisdom the differences in gains from the two approaches do not arise from treating stock returns as exogenous rather than endogenous

home bias in equity portfolios inflation hedging and international capital market equilibrium we test whether the home bias in equity portfolios is caused by investors trying to hedge inflation risk the empirical evidence is consistent with this motive only if investors have very high levels of risk tolerance and equity returns are negatively correlated with domestic inflation we then develop a model of international portfolio choice and equity market equilibrium that integrates inflation risk and deadweight costs using this model we estimate the levels of costs required to generate the observed home bias in portfolios consistent with different levels of risk aversion for a level of risk aversion consistent with standard estimates of the domestic equity market risk premium these costs are about a few percent per annum greater than observable costs such as withholding taxes thus the home bias cannot be explained by either inflation hedging or direct observable costs of international investment unless investors have very low levels of risk aversion article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

taking gravity online the role of virtual proximity in international finance abstract this paper analyses international patterns of bilateral portfolio equity and debt investment in a gravity model framework we contribute to the literature by exploring the role of virtual proximity measured by bilateral internet hyperlinks between countries as a novel proxy for cross border information flows and cultural proximity more generally our findings show that bilateral portfolio investment is significantly affected by virtual proximity indicating that countries which are more closely connected in terms of web content are more integrated financially the effect is stronger for equity than for debt investment highlighting the larger information sensitivity of equity investments and is largest for investments among advanced economies moreover including virtual proximity in estimations reduces the importance of traditionally used proxies for information asymmetries and cultural proximity

relational ties or customized contracts an examination of alternative governance choices in china as business transactions become more complex in china an increasingly market driven economy are managers more likely to employ relational ties or contracts consistent with the view that personal institutions govern transactions in china our analysis of 361 buyer supplier exchanges indicates that managers rely more on relational ties as asset specificity and uncertainty increase we also find some support that impersonal institutions govern market transactions as uncertainty increases managers craft more customized contracts surprisingly there is no association between contracts and asset specificity these results hold for both local and foreign firms journal of international business studies 2008 39 526 534 doi 10 1057 palgrave jibs 8400363

international portfolio nondiversification and exchange rate variability abstract incomplete international portfolio diversification is implied by an equilibrium models of exchange rates with nontraded goods the model can also explain the greater correlation between consumption and income within a country than between consumption across countries nontraded goods make more stringent the elasticity conditions required to explain exchange rate variability resulting from current productivity disturbances though not from disturbances to fiscal policies or the prospective return to investment the model is also consistent with international real interest rate differentials changes over time in the current account and relative wealth across nations and observed time series properties of exchange rates

institutional forces and organizational culture in china effects on change schemas firm commitment and job satisfaction this paper examines the effects of institutional forces on change schemas of senior managers mid level managers and front line workers of different types of firms in china we postulate that several socio economic forces including regional economic prosperity firm type state owned and foreign invested within firm ranks and organizational cultures are at work the cognitive differences among people in local and foreign firms operating in similar contexts are examined through a survey of 3 960 managers and workers we test hypotheses that relate various institutional forces on how individuals perceive evaluate and infer future changes that challenge them we also examine the effects of individual change schema on firm commitment and job satisfaction two indicators that may mediate future changes in these firms

commodity trade and international risk sharing how much do financial markets matter abstract this paper evaluates the social gains from international risk sharing in some simple general equilibrium models with output uncertainty a simulation model calibrated to selected moments of u s and japanese data estimates the incremental loss from a ban on international portfolio diversification to be on the order of 0 20 percent of output per year even the theoretical gains from asset trade may disappear under alternative sets of assumptions on preferences and technology the paper argues that the small magnitude of potential trade gains may help explain the apparently inconsistent findings of empirical studies on the degree of international capital mobility

immigration and equity home bias abstract why do investors hold such large positions in domestic equity when there are gains to be made from international diversification this equity home bias puzzle has received considerable attention in the literature with asymmetric information on domestic and foreign assets whether by individual choice or by market imperfection emerging as the most plausible explanation what happens when we consider a subset of investors whose information sets are closer to investors in foreign countries i assess the relationship between immigration and equity home bias and find that inward migration is positively correlated with increased foreign equity positions and reduced home bias looking across income groups outward migration reduces home bias for relatively rich countries but may actually increase home bias when migration occurs to or from a developing country these results suggest that immigration generates a positive externality of increased information flows for developed countries but not for developing nations the effects of immigration on investment are strongest within the euro zone suggesting that this positive externality of immigration is largest when barriers to portfolio diversification such as currency risk are lowest

china s transition and its implications for international business this paper focuses on institutional change as the central and most consequential contextual aspect of china s transition identification of key characteristics of china s emergent institutions leads to propositions on their relevance for international business practice china s transition also raises issues for theory development including the way that transition is modeled the need to draw upon multiple perspectives and the concomitants of a contextual approach

the effects of customer and competitor orientations on performance in global markets a contingency analysis should companies adjust their orientations toward customers or toward competitors in global markets to answer this question we use contingency theory and examine how the effects of customer and competitor orientations on performance are moderated by different environmental conditions our results from the global hotel industry indicate that a customer orientation works better in economically developed markets as well as in markets with good local business conditions greater resource availability and demanding customers in contrast a competitor orientation is more effective in markets that are economically developing have poor local business conditions and face resource scarcity

optimal financial market integration and security design 1 we study 2 period pure exchange capital asset pricing model capm economies with incomplete financial markets and restricted participation we characterize the optimal financial market structure and efficient innovations consisting of both the introduction of new assets and the integration of segmented markets welfare gains from innovations are maximal when the endowments of affected agents are negatively correlated uncoordinated innovations lead to efficient market structures if all assets have identical participation structure or the markets being integrated trade identical assets however coordination failure in the introduction of new assets may result when assets have participation structures that overlap only partially

adapting to radical change strategy and environment in piece rate adoption during china s transition adaptation to radical change is central to research in organization theory and some of the most dramatic examples of environmental change have occurred recently in transition economies such as china i take advantage of change during china s economic reform to study the relative importance of organizational and environmental factors in producing innovative managerial response i find that strategic choice predicted innovation in the early stages of reform but environmental factors increased in salience over time intrafirm support communist party connections and a market orientation produced innovation early in reform simple imitation of others was also salient in early years as reform progressed managers increasingly imitated other profitable firms and drew on their own experience my results inform an understanding of both the process by which innovation occurs and firm behavior in transition economies

do trade costs in goods market lead to home bias in equities abstract two of the main puzzles in international economics are the consumption and the portfolio home biases we solve for international equity portfolios in a two country two good stochastic equilibrium model with trade costs in goods markets we show that introducing trade costs as suggested by obstfeld and rogoff obstfeld m rogoff k 2000a the six major puzzles in international macroeconomics is there a common cause nber macroeconomics annual 15 is not sufficient to explain these two puzzles simultaneously on the contrary we find that trade costs create a foreign bias in portfolios for reasonable parameter values this result is robust to the addition of non tradable goods for standard calibrations of the preferences

on the effects of barriers to international investment a simple model is presented in which it is costly for domestic investors to hold foreign assets the implications of the model for the composition of optimal portfolios at home and abroad are derived it is shown that all foreign assets with a beta larger than some beta plot on either one of two security market lines some foreign assets with a beta smaller than are not held by domestic investors even if their expected return is increased slightly while it is obviously not true that asset markets are completely segmented between countries there is evidence of barriers to international investment although reality seems to lie in that grey area between complete segmentation and no segmentation at all most international asset pricing models are concerned with the extreme case of no barriers to international investment no effort seems to have been made to study the effect on portfolio choice of such barriers which make it costly to hold foreign securities as opposed to domestic securities but which do not in general render international diversification so onerous that investors avoid foreign securities completely casual empiricism suggests that models without barriers to international investment should be suspect those models cannot explain why it appears that in every country investors on average hold more domestic securities than would be required if they held the world market portfolio 2 this paper constructs a model of international asset pricing in which there is a cost associated with holding either long or short risky foreign securities for the sake of simplicity in most of the paper we assume that while domestic investors face barriers to international investment foreign investors face no such barriers it turns out that nothing significant is lost with such an assumption the main conclusions of this paper for the case in which foreign investors face no barriers to international investment are 1 in the presence of barriers to international investment some risky foreign

the determinants of cross border equity flows abstract we explore a new panel data set on bilateral gross cross border equity flows between 14 countries 1989 1996 we show that a gravity model explains international transactions in financial assets at least as well as goods trade transactions gross transaction flows depend on market size in source and destination country as well as trading costs in which both information and the transaction technology play a role distance proxies some information costs and other variables explicitly represent information transmission an information asymmetry between domestic and foreign investors and the efficiency of transactions the geography of information is the main determinant of the pattern of international transactions while there is weak support in our data for the diversification motive once we control for the informational friction we broaden the scope of our results by presenting some evidence linking the results on equity transactions to equity holdings

stochastic control for economic models past present and the paths ahead abstract on the 30th anniversary of a meeting between engineers and economists at princeton university to discuss the potential application of stochastic control methods to economics this paper provides a review of past present and paths ahead the events surrounding some of the key developments of the past are described along with a discussion of the present state of the research and of paths for future research the paper is structured around the primary methods for solving quadratic linear economic stochastic control models namely open loop classical control handcrafted feedback rules optimal feedback min max control optimal feedback rules with parameter uncertainty and dual control the paper also includes a discussion of software developments in economic stochastic control modeling

caution and probing in a macroeconomic model abstract this paper reports on the application of an adaptive dual control technique to a small macroeconometric model of the u s economy both monetary and fiscal policy variables are used in the model the experiments find that probing and active learning will occur in small macroeconometric models but that unrealistically high terminal period penalties on state deviations are required before it appears

repatriation of debt in the euro crisis with the beginning of the euro crisis the long standing trend of european financial integration reversed investors unwound cross border positions of debt obligations and increased holdings of locally issued debt in other words debt obligations were repatriated we use data on bank portfolios to document three new empirical regularities of the financial disintegration i repatriation affected mainly debt of crisis countries ii repatriation affected mainly public debt iii the public debt of crisis countries that was not repatriated was reallocated to large and politically influential countries within the euro area we read these results in light of standard theories of cross border portfolio allocation and argue that the sum of these patterns constitutes evidence for the secondary market theory of public debt

segmentation and time of day patterns in foreign exchange markets abstract this paper sheds light on a puzzling pattern in spot foreign exchange markets domestic currencies appreciate depreciate systematically during foreign domestic working hours this phenomenon spans many years and several exchange rates and overrides calendar effects we argue that it is mainly due to liquidity and inventory patterns that emerge from the combination of two factors domestic agents tend to be net buyers of foreign currency and to trade mostly in their country s working hours the prevalence of domestic foreign traders demanding the counterpart currency during domestic foreign working hours implies sell price buy price pressure on the domestic currency during domestic foreign working hours

does industrial structure explain the benefits of international diversification abstract we examine the influence of industrial structure on the cross sectional volatility and correlation structure of country index returns for 12 european countries between 1978 and 1992 we find that industrial structure explains very little of the cross sectional difference in country return volatility and that the low correlation between country indices is almost completely due to country specific sources of return variation diversification across countries within an industry is a much more effective tool for risk reduction than industry diversification within a country

is local bias a cross border phenomenon evidence from individual investors international asset allocation abstract extant literature consistently documents that investors tilt their domestic equity portfolios towards regionally close stocks local bias we hypothesize that individual investors local bias is not limited to the domestic sphere but instead also determines their international investment decisions our results confirm the presence of a cross border local bias specifically we show i that the stockholdings of individual investors living within regional proximity to a foreign country display a significantly lower foreign investment bias towards investment opportunities in that country and ii that this drop in foreign investment bias levels is disproportionately driven by investments in regionally close neighbor country companies the impact of cross border local bias on investors bilateral foreign equity investments is economically significant and holds even after controlling for previously identified explanations of international asset allocation

the impacts of immigrants and institutions on bilateral tourism flows abstract in this paper we use data on recent bilateral tourism flow from 34 organisation for economic co operation and development oecd countries to 52 middle to low income countries for the period 1995 2010 to determine whether immigration trade and institutional quality play a role in driving oecd nationals to visit immigrant source countries except for the african countries the results show that immigrants residing in oecd countries have a positive advertising effect for their home country inducing tourism flows from oecd countries we also find that the quality of institutions along with freedom and civil liberty indices are important in selecting tourism destinations a massive 8 of the variation in tourism flows can be accounted for by these factors these results hold for the subsample and the whole sample with two exceptions european and african destinations we posit that this feature of the data exists because european african countries are so similar to each other and small differences in the indexes do not matter at the top bottom of the distribution by controlling for gravity and macroeconomic stability variables we also show that the trade flows between countries among other factors play a crucial and stable role on tourism flows dynamic panel data estimation is used to account for the influence of repeat visits and support our findings

model misspecification and underdiversification in this paper we study intertemporal portfolio choice when an investor accounts explicitly for model misspecification we develop a framework that allows for ambiguity about not just the joint distribution of returns for all stocks in the portfolio but also for different levels of ambiguity for the marginal distribution of returns for any subset of these stocks we find that when the overall ambiguity about the joint distribution of returns is high then small differences in ambiguity for the marginal return distribution will result in a portfolio that is significantly underdiversified relative to the standard mean variance portfolio

the decoupling of emerging economies theoretical and empirical puzzle with the growing importance of the emerging economies ees in the international scene a lively debate has begun on whether the national economic cycles are converging or the cycles of ees and advanced economies aes are becoming disconnected the so called hypothesis of decoupling of ees from the aes given the important practical implications that decoupling could have for example on the definition of national and international economic policies and on business strategies aimed at investment diversification and risk management the question kindles not only the interest of academics but also policymakers and practitioners are very interested in the issue the decoupling question has been long debated in different circles and from different points of view this survey aims to retrace the steps of this debate and to provide some suggestions for future empirical researches

nontraded goods nontraded factors and international non diversification abstract can the presence of nontraded consumption goods or nontraded factors of production explain the high degree of home bias displayed by investor portfolios we find that the answer is no so long as individuals have access to free international trade in financial assets in particular it is never optimal to exhibit home bias with respect to domestic traded good equities by contrast holdings of nontraded good equities in an optimal portfolio will depend sensitively on the elasticity of substitution between traded and nontraded goods

labour market institutions and household consumption insurance within oecd countries this paper tests empirically whether the effect of idiosyncratic income shocks on aggregate consumption depends on institutional features of national labour markets the results show that in a sample of 15 oecd countries institutional heterogeneity is a significant determinant of the response of household consumption to country specific income shocks this is consistent with the idea that institutionally provided social insurance may help increase income stability when people differ in their ability to access financial markets and smooth consumption fluctuations

equity home bias and corporate disclosure abstract i show that more comprehensive corporate disclosure reduces investors uncertainty about domestic companies payoffs at no cost thereby decreasing investors equity home bias toward a country since investors should base their investment decisions on valid and easily interpretable company information only more comprehensive disclosure will reduce the home bias only if domestic securities law is sufficiently stratified and domestic companies use international accounting standards using panel data for 38 countries from 2003 to 2008 i find that more comprehensive disclosure reduces investors home bias though significantly only for countries that sufficiently enforce their securities law and implement international accounting standards

foreign institutional investment is governance quality at home important abstract this paper examines the investment preferences of foreign institutional investors investing in the u s market we analyse both firm and country level determinants that influence the foreign institutional investors allocation choices at the country level we find that the governance quality in a foreign institutional investor s home country is a determinant of their decision to invest in the u s market our findings indicate that investors who come from countries with governance setups similar to that of the u s invest more in the united states the investment levels though are more pronounced for countries with governance setups just below that of the u s our results are consistent with both the flight to quality and familiarity arguments and help reconcile prior contradictory empirical evidence at the firm level we present unequivocal evidence in favour of the familiarity argument foreign institutional investors domiciled in countries with high governance quality prefer to invest in u s firms with high corporate governance quality this effect is primarily driven by grey non monitoring institutional investors

welfare gains from international risksharing abstract this paper uses consumption data to compute yet unexploited welfare gains that can be achieved through risksharing among twenty oecd countries there is both aggregate national consumption risk and nondiversifiable individual specific risk countries engage in an optimal risksharing arrangement to pool risk associated with the aggregate consumption endowment streams welfare gains are associated with reduced consumption variability and with the international pricing of the consumption streams of individual countries the paper considers the standard vnm time additive preferences as well as nonexpected utility and habit formation preferences large unexploited gains are found under all sets of preferences leading to an international risksharing puzzle

the effect of emergency liquidity assistance ela on bank lending during the euro area crisis abstract we examine the impact of emergency liquidity assistance ela on bank lending in eleven euro area countries during the financial crisis with the intensification of the crisis ela took on a pivotal role in some countries however assessments of the quantitative impact of ela in the literature are non existent we estimate a structural panel model for the determination of bank lending which includes the amount of ela received by each bank allowing us to investigate the direct effect of ela on lending our model corrects a mis specification found in the prototype model used in the literature we then undertake a var analysis which allows us to address the effect of ela on gdp finally we examine spillover effects among banks indicating that ela generated positive spillovers to other banks

the ability of global stock exchange mechanisms to mitigate home bias evidence from euronext this paper examines the effects on equity home bias of two mechanisms adopted by euronext when it was formed by the merger of four european countries stock exchanges in 2002 the two structural mechanisms are the integration of trading platforms across the four predecessor exchanges and the creation of named segments of the integrated exchange on which firms could voluntarily list by precommitting to enhanced disclosure and transparency employing a difference in differences research design using other european union companies as a control group we document that the integration of the euronext market was associated with a reduction in home bias for firms listed on the named segments of the euronext exchange but not for the nonsegment euronext firms our results suggest that the reduction in transaction costs from the integration of the trading platforms did not make the nonsegment euronext firms more attractive to the specific investors for whom the transaction costs were reduced on the other hand the decrease in information costs due to the precommitments to enhanced transparency made the segment firms more attractive to all categories of foreign investors consistent with the information costs hypothesis this paper was accepted by mary barth accounting

what can explain the apparent lack of international consumption risk sharing recent research in international business cycles finds that international consumption comovements do not match the risk sharing predictions of standard complete markets models in this paper i ask whether two different types of explanations can help explain this result 1 nonseparabilities between tradables and nontradable leisure or goods and 2 the effects of capital market restrictions on consumption risk sharing i find that risk sharing cannot be resolved by either explanation alone however when i allow for both nonseparabilities and certain market restrictions risk sharing among unrestricted countries cannot be rejected this evidence suggests that a combination of these two effects may be necessary to explain consumption risk sharing across countries

information immobility and the home bias puzzle many argue that home bias arises because home investors can predict home asset payoffs more accurately than foreigners can but why does global information access not eliminate this asymmetry we model investors endowed with a small home information advantage who choose what information to learn before they invest surprisingly even when home investors can learn what foreigners know they choose not to investors profit more from knowing information others do not know learning amplifies information asymmetry the model matches patterns of local and industry bias foreign investments portfolio outperformance and asset prices finally we propose new avenues for empirical research

evaluating risky consumption paths the role of intertemporal substitutability abstract in dynamic stochastic welfare comparisons a failure clearly to distinguish between risk aversion and intertemporal substitutability can result in misleading assessments of the impact of risk aversion on the welfare costs of consumption risk changes the problem arises in any setting in which uncertainty is propagated over time notably but not exclusively in economies with stochastic consumption trends regardless of the preference setup adopted an increase in risk aversion amplifies the per period costs of risks the weights consumers use to cumulate the per period costs of risks with persistent effects should however depend on intertemporal substitutability as well as on risk aversion under time separable expected utility preferences an increase in the period utility function s curvature therefore alters the welfare effect of risk for reasons that are in part unrelated to risk aversion to illustrate these points i reconsider lucas s estimate of the cost of consumption instability for the postwar united states

are correlations of stock returns justified by subsequent changes in national outputs abstract in an integrated world capital market the same pricing kernel is applicable to all securities we apply this idea to the stock returns of different countries we investigate the underlying determinants of cross country stock return correlations first we determine for a given measured degree of commonality of country outputs what should be the degree of correlation of national stock returns we propose a framework that contains a statistical model for output and an intertemporal financial market model for stock returns we then attempt to match the correlations generated by the model with measured correlations our results show that under the hypothesis of market segmentation the model correlations are much smaller than observed correlations however assuming world markets are integrated our model correlations can be matched with observed correlations

diagnosing measurement equivalence in cross national research many researchers have pointed out that it is necessary to ensure measurement equivalence in cross national comparative research three aspects of measurement equivalence translation metric and calibration equivalence are necessary to establish the cross national reliability and validity of items used to measure theoretical constructs this paper discusses these issues and proposes two recently developed empirical techniques multiple group lisrel and optimal scaling for use in diagnosing cross national measurement equivalence these techniques are illustrated by reanalysis of a pioneering u s and japanese study the two techniques yield convergent results indicating measurement equivalence for some but not all ordinal level items under consideration the findings demonstrate that the proposed methods are useful diagnostic tools for exploring measurement equivalence several suggestions for reducing the likelihood of problems with measurement equivalence and a number of methods for dealing with items where lack of equivalence persists are also discussed

asset pricing puzzles and incomplete markets the representative agent theory of asset pricing is modified to incorporate heterogeneous agents and incomplete markets the model features two types of agents who differ up to a nontradable idiosyncratic component in their endowment processes numerical solutions indicate that individuals are able to diversify a substantial portion of their idiosyncratic income risk through riskless borrowing and lending alone restrictions on the variability of intertemporal marginal rates of substitution hansen and jagannathan 1991 are used to argue that incomplete markets as modeled here cannot account for the properties of asset returns that are anomalous from the perspective of representative agent theory a large literature in financial economics has investigated the extent to which variants of the lucas 1978 general equilibrium theory of asset pricing can account for the joint behavior of aggregate u s consumption and asset returns by and large this literature has concluded that a theory based upon frictionless arrow debreu markets and or a representative agent makes strongly counterfactual predictions regarding even the simple unconditional properties of this relationship mehra and prescott 1985 for instance show that the theory drastically underpredicts the average excess rate of return on u s stocks the so called equity premium puzzle weil 1989 points out as did mehra and prescott that the magnitude of the average risk free rate is far below that predicted by the theory this has been dubbed the risk free rate puzzle numerous authors including grossman melino and shiller 1987 and backus gregory and zin 1989 show that the theory cannot account for term premia inherent in the yield curve hodrick 1987 surveys a large literature which documents the theory s shortcomings in accounting for excess expected returns in foreign exchange markets the notion that the representative agent model cannot account for excess returns across a wide array of asset markets can be made more precise by using tools developed by hansen and jagannathan 1991 and shiller 1982

brain drain in developing countries an original data set on international migration by educational attainment for 1990 and 2000 is used to analyze the determinants of brain drain from developing countries the analysis starts with a simple decomposition of the brain drain in two multiplicative components the degree of openness of sending countries measured by the average emigration rate and the schooling gap measured by the education level of emigrants compared with natives regression models are used to identify the determinants of these components and explain cross country differences in the migration of skilled workers unsurprisingly the brain drain is strong in small countries that are close to major organization for economic co operation and development oecd regions that share colonial links with oecd countries and that send most of their migrants to countries with quality selective immigration programs interestingly the brain drain increases with political instability and the degree of fractionalization at origin and decreases with natives human capital

linking product and process innovations and modes of international sourcing in global competition a case of foreign multinational firms in increasingly complex global competition multinational firms u s and foreign alike have stepped up international sourcing of components and finished products to serve various markets since an increasing portion of global competition is shaped by european and japanese multinational firms with due emphasis on product quality and manufacturing it is an opportune time to examine the like among their product development manufacturing and sourcing activities those european and japanese multinational firms marketing products in the united states are chosen as subjects of this study

international investment restrictions and closed end country fund prices some closed end country funds trade at large premiums relative to their net asset values this paper examines whether international investment restrictions raise country fund price net asset value ratios by segmenting international capital markets we test whether a relation exists between announcements of changes in investment restrictions and changes in these ratios using weekly data from may 1981 to january 1989 the results provide evidence that some foreign markets are at least partially segmented from the u s capital market

active learning a correction these changes stem from a bug which we discovered recently in the measurement error section of the passive learning part of our adaptive control code dual thus the results for the macrae model in section 2 of the paper are not affected because it does not include measurement error also the mean values in the first table above are not altered for the active learning and certainty equivalence solutions but rather only for the passive learning solution the modified results reported above show that the passive learning solutions to the single control variable abel model performed relatively worse than in our earlier report

cultural differences in conducting intra and inter cultural negotiations a sino canadian comparison a study on conflict resolution strategies of canadian and chinese peoples republic of china executives was conducted responses to two types of joint project conflicts task related and person related with potential partners from their own culture or from the other culture were examined neither group of executives altered its strategy when negotiating across cultures chinese executives were more likely to avoid conflicts but recommended more negative strategies discontinue negotiation withdraw negotiation when conflict emerged person related conflicts were found to generate more negative responses than task related conflicts especially for chinese executives both canadian and chinese executives preferred to negotiate with canadians than with chinese

exchange hazards relational reliability and contracts in china the contingent role of legal enforceability building on institutional and transaction cost economics this article proposes that legal enforceability increases the use of contract over relational reliability e g beliefs that the other party acts in a non opportunistic manner to safeguard market exchanges characterized by non trivial hazards the results of 399 buyer supplier exchanges in china show that 1 when managers perceive that the legal system can protect their firm s interests they tend to use explicit contracts rather than relational reliability to safeguard transactions involving risks i e asset specificity environmental uncertainty and behavioral uncertainty and 2 when managers do not perceive the legal system as credible they are less likely to use contracts and instead rely on relational reliability to safeguard transactions associated with specialized assets and environmental uncertainty but not those involving behavioral uncertainty we further find that legal enforceability does not moderate the effect of relational reliability on contracts but does weaken the effect of contracts on relational reliability these results endorse the importance of prior experience e g relational reliability in supporting the use of explicit contracts and alternatively suggest that under conditions of greater legal enforceability the contract signals less regarding one s intention to be trustworthy but more about the efficacy of sanctions

the short run volatility of money stock targeting abstract the altered allocations of money market volatility obtained by alternative monetary policy procedures are illustrated by stochastic simulations of a staff monthly model the results indicate the nature of the tradeoff between short run volatility in the money stock and in the funds rate that is available to money stock targeting procedures

loss aversion asymmetric market comovements and the home bias abstract loss aversion has been used to explain why a high equity premium might be consistent with plausible levels of risk aversion the intuition is that the first order different utility impact of wealth gains and losses leads loss averse investors to behave similarly to investors with high risk aversion but if so should those agents not perceive larger gains from international diversification than standard expected utility investors with plausible levels of risk aversion they might not because comovements in international stock markets are asymmetric correlations are higher in market downturns than in upturns this asymmetry dampens the gains from diversification relatively more for loss averse investors we analyze the portfolio problem of such an investor who has to choose between home and foreign equities in the presence of asymmetric comovement in returns perhaps surprisingly in the context of the home bias puzzle we find that loss averse investors behave similarly to those with standard expected utility preferences and plausible levels of risk aversion we argue that preference specifications that appear to perform well with respect to the equity premium puzzle should be subjected to this test

exchange rate volatility and deviations from unbiasedness in a cash in advance model abstract this paper examines time series properties of exchange rate changes the forward premium and the forward bias in the context of a variant of svensson s cash in advance model the model is solved and simulated using realistic forcing processes whose law of motion is estimated from u s japan data and then approximated by a markov chain although method of moments estimation shows that the over identifying restrictions implied by the model are not rejected it fails dramatically in producing a sufficiently variable risk premium on forward market speculation this result is robust to various pertubations to the model s parameters forcing processes and preference structure the model also fails to match exchange rate and forward premium volatility simultaneously

dynamic specifications in optimizing trend deviation macro models abstract as noted in surveys by goodfriend and king in b bernanke j rotemberg eds nber macroeconomics annual mit press cambridge ma 1997 pp 231 283 and walsh monetary theory and policy mit press cambridge ma and exemplified by models analyzed in taylor 1999 there is encouraging progress in developing optimizing trend deviation macro models that provide useful insights into the transmission and design of monetary policy several controversial features of a minimalist trend deviation model with optimizing households firms and bond traders are examined dynamic specifications are suggested to improve the data based realism while preserving the simplicity of the minimalist model

mitigation of the lucas critique with stochastic control methods abstract lucas in brunner k meltzer a h eds the phillips curve and the labor markets supplementary series to the journal of monetary economics 1976 pp 19 46 pointed out that when optimization is performed on a deterministic macro model the resulting policy may not reflect the true optimal solution private agents may react to announced policies and consequently model parameters will start to drift the aim of this paper is to develop a methodology for deriving an optimal policy in the presence of rational expectations and parameter drift this drift is captured by a stochastic optimization framework with time varying parameters the resulting optimal policy is capable of tracking changes in the parameters due to policy changes a numerical example illustrates how the methodology provides a way to mitigate the effects of the lucas critique

optimally derived fixed rules and indicators abstract monetary targets have come to be regarded as inadequate for the conduct of short term monetary policy both among theoreticians and practitioners of policy in this paper two approaches are put forward analysed and evaluated for improving the performance of monetary targets according to the first approach simple rules for monetary targets are derived within an optimisation framework these rules related to ultimate targets are simple so that they can be announced and are flexible so that they are subject to revision when the economy drifts away from its course due to unexpected shocks the second approach is based on indicators and complements monetary targets with exchange rate targets through a simple feedback law for determining interest rate policy the advantage of this feedback law is that it provides the mechanism through which policy is to be revised in response to shocks if such a feedback law is announced private economic agents have the means of distinguishing discretionary and arbitrary changes of policy from those which are needed to bring the economy back to the announced and committed course this approach is used to analyse and extend the suggestions in the house of commons report on international monetary arrangements the common ground between the two approaches is an optimisation framework with respect to the parameters of either the fixed simple rules or the simple feedback laws this is discussed in section 1 the approach of deriving simple fixed rules is illustrated in a monetarist model in which there is a link between private sector expectations and the credible announcement of monetary targets the model is explained in section 2 and simple fixed rules are discussed in section 3 the performance of simple rules for monetary targets is evaluated in terms of a minimax strategy with model uncertainty between the monetarist model and a keynesian model without the assumption of announcement effects this is discussed in section 4 optimal feedback laws are derived and analysed in section 5 the parameter sensitivity of these feedback laws with respect to the model and the objective function as well as their behaviour under shocks is also examined

state governance and technological innovation in emerging economies state owned enterprise restructuration and institutional logic dissonance in china s high speed train sector can state governance spur firm innovation in an emerging economy and transform state owned enterprises soes from dying dinosaurs to dynamic dynamos we seek an answer to this question by investigating the innovative performance of restructured soes in china s high speed train sector we expect that soe restructuration will improve firm innovation but that the degree of improvement will depend on how the state conducts firm governance building on institutional theory we distinguish state governance via equity ownership and administrative affiliation in an emerging economy with market hierarchy institutional conflicts under such conflicts restructured soes experience institutional logic dissonance which hinders organizational change for technological innovation we hypothesize that state ownership exacerbates institutional logic dissonance at a restructured soe thus limiting innovation improvement from restructuration in contrast state affiliation mitigates firm dissonance and hence augments such improvement we find empirical evidence for these hypotheses in a comprehensive panel of high speed train manufacturers in china between 1989 and 2015 this study contributes to the institution based theory of technological innovation in emerging economies on the practical front our findings suggest that emerging states may adopt arms length governance to spur soe innovation and unleash these dynamic dynamos to fuel sustainable economic growth

is full banking integration desirable abstract we analyze the links between banking integration and economic development for a sample of oecd countries we measure banking integration considering indicators that merge not only openness but also connectedness with other banking systems we plug these indicators into income regressions also controlling for other relevant variables considered by the literature in contrast to previous initiatives this second stage explicitly takes into account the differing levels of economic development of the countries in our sample since the benefits of enhanced banking integration might not be generalizable to this end we implement quantile regression also considering the presence of endogenous regressors results show that bank connectedness is more important for economic development than bank openness but the combined effect i e banking integration overall is positive and significant the quantile regression models used in the second stage show that the effects are stronger for the poorest economies

does home bias affect firm value evidence from holdings of mutual funds worldwide this study finds strong evidence that home bias affects firm valuation at both country and firm levels at the country level increasing the bias of domestic investors toward home equity lowers the market valuation of home equity at the firm level firm value increases as the compositions of local equities held by domestic and foreign investors tend toward the firms global market capitalization weights but decreases as their weights deviate from global weights overall the evidence is consistent with the optimal global risk sharing hypothesis that the greater risk sharing between domestic and foreign investors in international capital markets reduces the cost of capital and hence enhances market valuation

gains from international diversification 1968 85 returns on portfolios of stocks and bonds this paper applies the multi period investment model to a universe of international securities on the basis of the simple probability assessment approach our principal findings are 1 the gains from including non u s asset categories in the universe were remarkably large in some cases statistically significant especially for the highly risk averse strategies 2 the gains from removing the no leverage constraint were more substantial than they were in the absence of non u s securities and 3 there is strong evidence of market segmentation in that the optimal levels of investment in u s securities were mostly zero in the presence of the non u s asset categories

product innovation product market competition and persistent profitability in the u s pharmaceutical industry increasingly strategy scholars are exploring the relationships between innovation competition and the persistence of superior profits sustained high profitability may result when a firm repeatedly introduces valuable innovations that service previously unmet consumer demands while the returns to the firm from each innovation may erode over time innovation ensures that overall the firm maintains a high performance position at the same time sustained high profitability may also accrue to firms that innovate less often but effectively avoid the competition that otherwise erodes high returns this paper elaborates these relationships before presenting an empirical analysis of the effects of differential innovative propensities and differential rates of competition on pharmaceutical firms abilities to sustain profit outcomes that are above those earned by competing firms the analysis which is situated within the u s pharmaceutical industry finds support for the expected relationship between high innovative propensity and sustained superior profitability but no support for a link between persistence and the ability to avoid competition copyright 1999 john wiley sons ltd

adaptive control in the presence of time varying parameters in the previous chapters two strands of literature have been brought together the first strand is the research on time varying parameters following a return to normality model viz harvey and phillips 1982 and swamy and tinsley 1980 1 the second strand is the work on adaptive control in the tradition of tse and bar shalom 1973 and kendrick 1981 as indicated in chapter 2 given a time horizon of t periods the goal was to find the values of control variables for period 0 period 1 and so on until period t 1 which minimized the objective functional or cost to go in an adaptive control framework for each period in the time horizon say period t several trial or search values of the controls were tried 2 the optimal cost to go associated with each search control was then calculated following kendrick 1981 ch 10 the computations performed at time t were organized in three steps first the nominal value for the parameters for period t through t was computed using their estimates for time t 1 and their expected law of motion the first search control was also selected then the search for the optimal control was carried out this step included a use the search control and the nominal value for the parameters to get the projected states and covariances in period t 1 b get the nominal path for the states and controls for the period t 1 through t by solving the certainty equivalence ce problem with the projected states as the initial condition c compute the riccati matrices for periods t 1 t d update and project the covariances from period t 1 given t i e the covariance seen at point a above to t 1 e calculate the approximate cost to go for the period t through t f choose a new search control and repeat a f until all search points are evaluated g select the control which yields the minimum cost after the selected control was applied to the system and the process moved one step forward in time the estimates of the states and parameters were updated

robust permanent income and pricing i suppose there exists an extremely powerful and if i may so speak malignant being whose whole endeavours are directed toward deceiving me rene descartes meditations ii 1

complex nonlinear dynamics and computational methods in the summer of 1997 berc rustem asked us whether we would be interested in editing a special issue of the journal of economic dynamics control on complex nonlinear dynamics and computational methods we were enthusiastic about the idea and soon started soliciting papers on these themes this issue contains 19 contributions by some experts in the eld and should provide the reader with an impression of the current s dechert 1996 goodwin 1990 hommes 1991 lorenz 1993 medio 1992 puu 1997 rosser 1991 and de vilder 1995 for more discussions concerning this controversy is the main source of economic uctuations to be found in exogenous random shocks to an inherently stable linear economic system or can nonlinear economic laws of motion explain a signi cant part of observed uctuations in output growth rates capital stocks inventories stock prices exchange rates and other economic or nancial variables this controversy dates back to the 1930s and the 1940s when frisch slutsky and tinbergen a o proposed their propagation mechanism subject to exterior random impulses as a way of modeling business cycles in contrast e g kaldor goodwin and hicks argued that the

strategic and financial performance implications of global sourcing strategy a contingency analysis using a contingency model of global sourcing strategy this study investigated the moderating effects of sourcing related factors on the relationship between sourcing strategy and a product s strategic and financial performance the results lent some support to the contingency model of global sourcing strategy in that product innovation process innovation and asset specificity were significant moderator variables for financial but not strategic performance however the results provided no support for bargaining power of suppliers and transaction frequency as moderator variables in other words in achieving high financial performance for a product whether a particular sourcing strategy should be used for a particular product depended on the levels of product innovation process innovation and asset specificity

learning by doing and the value of optimal experimentation abstract recent research on learning by doing has provided the limit properties of beliefs and actions for a class of learning problems in which experimentation is an important aspect of optimal decision making however under these conditions the optimal policy cannot be derived analytically because bayesian learning about unknown parameters introduces a nonlinearity in the dynamic optimization problem this paper utilizes numerical methods to characterize the optimal policy function for a learning by doing problem that is general enough for practical economic applications the optimal policy is found to incorporate a substantial degree of experimentation under a wide range of initial beliefs about the unknown parameters dynamic simulations indicate that optimal experimentation dramatically improves the speed of learning and the stream of future payoffs furthermore these simulations reveal that a policy which separates control and estimation and does not incorporate experimentation frequently induces a long lasting bias in the control and target variables while these sequences tend to converge steadily under the optimal policy they frequently exhibit non stationary behavior when estimation and control are treated separately

does financial globalization promote risk sharing article i nfo in theory one of the main benefits of financial globalization is that it should allow for more efficient international risk sharing in this paper we provide an empirical evaluation of the patterns of risk sharing among different groups of countries and examine how international financial integration has affected the evolution of these patterns using a variety of empirical techniques we conclude that there is at best a modest degree of international risk sharing and certainly nowhere near the levels predicted by theory in addition only industrial countries have attained better risk sharing outcomes during the recent period of globalization developing countries have by and large been shut out of this benefit even emerging market economies many of which have reduced capital controls and all of which have witnessed large increases in cross border capital flows have seen little change in their ability to share risk we find that the composition of flows may help explain why emerging markets have not been able to realize this presumed benefi to f financial globalization in particular our results suggest that portfolio debt which had dominated the external liability stocks of most emerging markets until recently is not conducive to risk sharing

international real business cycles we ask whether a two country real business cycle model can account simultaneously for domestic and international aspects of business cycles with this question in mind we document a number of discrepancies between theory and data the most striking discrepancy concerns the correlations of consumption and output across countries in the data outputs are generally more highly correlated across countries than consumptions in the model we see the opposite

active learning monte carlo results abstract the revival of interest in learning in stochastic control models invites the examination of some unanswered issues from earlier work following in the tradition of prescott and macrae we consider active learning to examine the question of when these methods are superior to passive learning in the earlier literature it was not possible to address this question because computer speeds were not great enough however modern supercomputers make it possible to reopen this issue in this paper we will examine two well known stochastic control models the macrae model and the abel model although no general conclusions can be drawn the results from the macrae model and the abel model indicate that in certain cases active learning may be superior to passive learning and certainty equivalence in the almost all cases we have analyzed so far active learning is superior to passive learning which in turn is superior to certainty equivalence

organizational changes in emerging economies drivers and consequences organizational change in emerging economies although difficult is inevitable the authors study the drivers and consequences of organizational changes in an emerging economy china the results of a firm level survey show that organizational changes in technical vs administrative areas are differentially driven by firms motivation to change past performance opportunity to change firm location and market orientation and capability to change firm ownership managers change attitude and leader charisma furthermore technical and administrative changes affect firm performance through distinct paths technical changes have a direct positive impact on performance whereas administrative changes enhance firm performance indirectly through technical changes and the effect of administrative changes on performance is strengthened by the presence of a participative culture