a seniority arrangement for sovereign debt a sovereign s inability to commit to a course of action regarding future borrowing and default behavior makes long term debt costly the problem of debt dilution one mechanism to mitigate this problem is the inclusion of a seniority clause in debt contracts in the event of default creditors are to be paid off in the order in which they lent the absolute priority or first in time rule in this paper we propose a modification of the absolute priority rule suited to sovereign debts contracts and analyze its positive and normative implications within a quantitatively realistic model of sovereign debt and default jel e32 e44 f34 g15 h63 o16 o19

how to set price and quality in a supply chain of virtual products under bi criteria and risk consideration abstract virtual products are characterized by ample production capacity zero lead time and no holding costs we consider a two echelon supply chain of a virtual product consisting of a single manufacturer and a single retailer who face random demand demand depends on both price and quality of the product and its stochastic nature exposes the supply chain members to financial risk each party adopts profit criteria that reflect his or her attitude toward this risk including the use of bi criteria by formulating a model that follows a stackelberg game and using the stochastic dominance property we show that one can analytically obtain equilibrium by assuming certain common structures of the demand function and of the risk attitudes the contribution of this study is fourfold i analyzing multiplicative and additive demand forms and comparing the properties of the decisions under the two forms ii showing that under the multiplicative demand form the pricing strategies are not affected by the parties attitudes toward risk whereas the manufacturer s decision on quality investment is affected by his risk attitude iii showing that under the additive demand form the manufacturer s utility function and the demand uncertainty affect pricing and investment strategies and iv suggesting a method to construct the efficient set of decisions and the non dominated set of profit criterion values

inventory competition for newsvendors under the objective of profit satisficing abstract inventory competition for newsvendors nvs has been studied extensively under the objective of expected profit maximization which is based on risk neutrality in this paper we study this classic problem under the objective of profit satisficing which is based on downside risk aversion consistent with prior literature we consider two possible scenarios in the first scenario each nv s demand depends on the stocking levels of all nvs other than herself in this scenario we show that there is a unique nash equilibrium where all nvs optimally order as if they were independent in the second scenario each nv s demand depends on the stocking levels of all nvs including herself we prove the existence of nash equilibrium for both additive and multiplicative forms of demands as a special case we also study symmetrical nvs under the proportional allocation model we show that at equilibrium if the number of nvs exceeds a threshold the market becomes highly competitive

practice prize report planning new tariffs at tele ring the application and impact of an integrated segmentation targeting and positioning tool tele ring is a mobile phone organization selling contracts and cell phones in the austrian market the market situation in 2005 was highly competitive and dynamic resulting in relatively short tariff life cycles excessively long lead times made tele ring s management feel dissatisfied with their new tariff development process furthermore a new competitor had entered the market posing a major threat and it was unclear how to effectively safeguard tele ring s position in the market in cooperation with the management we implemented and tested a new segmentation targeting and positioning tool which provides managers with information on their target markets customer preferences competitors strengths and customer segments it allows for the simultaneous visualization of these data on a single map and facilitates timely and accurate decision making in particular we report on the design and the implementation of a new pricing scheme formel 10 which became the most successful new tariff introduction in this competitive market tele ring s managers were very much impressed with our tool s ability to represent the market on a single map and with its capacity to allow for intuitive interpretation in addition the tool enhanced internal communication between its users and different stakeholders during the new tariff development process

collective action clauses how do they affect sovereign bond yields abstract we study the effects of the adoption of collective action clauses cacs on government bond yields by exploiting secondary market data on sovereign bonds quoted in international markets from march 2007 to april 2011 cacs are assessed security by security using a panel data approach we find a u shaped effect of cacs on yields according to the credit rating of the issuer while the impact is negligible for the highest ratings a significant yield discount emerges for mid range ratings which is smaller for bad ratings and possibly insignificant for the worst ratings this relationship appears fairly robust across a number of checks this evidence may reflect the fact that cacs are valuable because they help with orderly restructuring unless the perceived probability of default is too small nevertheless at low ratings this effect can be weakened by an increasing risk of moral hazard

a single period inventory placement problem for a supply system with the satisficing objective abstract consider the inventory placement problem in an n stage supply system facing a stochastic demand for a single planning period each stage is a stocking point holding some form of inventory e g raw materials subassemblies product returns or finished products that after a suitable transformation can satisfy demand stocking decisions are made before demand occurs unsatisfied demands are lost the revenue salvage value ordering transformation and lost sales costs are proportional there are fixed costs for utilizing stages for stock storage the objective is to maximize the probability of achieving a given target profit level we prove the existence of optimal stocking decisions where at most three stages receive nonzero stocks we also characterize properties of the optimal stocking decisions and provide an o n 3 algorithm for their computation for the special case where all fixed costs are zero the stages utilized do not depend on the demand distribution or the target level and one can find optimal stocking decisions by performing a simple o n 2 search and solving a single variable optimization problem

analysis of protection and pricing strategies for digital products under uncertain demand abstract we analyze pricing and protection digital rights management strategies in a two echelon supply chain that consists of a manufacturer and a retailer of digital products the demand for the legal non pirated product which depends on both price and monetary investment in protection is assumed to be uncertain three different supply chain models are analyzed manufacturer stackelberg retailer stackelberg and vertical integration we show that the retailer s utility function has no effect on the equilibrium strategies and suggest schemes to find these strategies for any utility function of the manufacturer further results are obtained under assumptions of either a multiplicative or an additive demand model we study the players strategies under different profit criteria reflecting different attitudes toward risk specifically the expectation criterion and the target criterion and for each criterion we obtain the dependence between the pricing and the protection investment we show that there are situations in which the manufacturer can increase his profit by giving up his leadership to the retailer even if the power balance is in his favor

analytics of sovereign debt restructuring abstract this paper develops a simple theoretical model to analyse recent proposals on restructuring of sovereign bonds we find that collective action clauses cacs inserted in bonds resolve the inefficiencies caused by intra creditor coordination problems providing that all parties have complete information about each other s preferences in such a world statutory mechanisms such as international bankruptcy courts are unnecessary this is no longer the case when the benefits from reaching a restructuring agreement are private information to the debtor and its creditors due to inefficiencies caused by the debtor creditor bargaining problem

the competitive newsboy we consider a competitive version of the classical newsboy problem in which a firm must choose an inventory or production level for a perishable good with random demand and the optimal solution is a fractile of the demand distribution and investigate the impact of competition upon industry inventory a splitting rule specifies how initial industry demand is allocated among competing firms and how any excess demand is allocated among firms with remaining inventory we examine the relation between equilibrium inventory levels and the splitting rule and provide conditions under which there is a unique equilibrium our most general result is that if all excess demand is reallocated i e there is perfect substitutability then competition never leads to a decrease in industry inventory

will the sovereign debt market survive economic theory and evidence from a variety of debt markets shed light on current reform proposals concerning emerging market debt debt markets including the u s municipal bond market generally function best when the rights of creditors are protected most effectively since current imf reform proposals significantly emasculate creditor rights they are likely to have an adverse effect on the flow of new funds to sovereign borrowers this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

sovereign debt sustainability in advanced economies we develop a measure of maximum sustainable government debt for advanced economies how much investors are willing to lend to a country s government depends on the country s expected primary surplus the level and volatility of its rate of growth and how much debt the government expects to be able to raise in the future for the purpose of servicing the debt it seeks to raise today we provide a simple formula that computes a country s maximum sustainable debt msd as a function of four easy to estimate parameters we further compute a country s theoretical probability of default pd as a function of its debt to gdp ratio we nally calibrate our measures for 23 oecd countries and test the relation between sovereign yield spreads and our theoretical pd at prevailing debt levels we nd it to be strongly statistically signicant jel h63

price competition for retailers with profit and revenue targets abstract price competition for retailers has been extensively studied in the literature assuming the objective of expected profit maximization in this paper we make a major contribution by studying price competition for retailers with both profit and revenue targets consequently each retailer maximizes her profit and revenue probability namely the probability of achieving the profit and revenue targets simultaneously more specifically we analyze a scenario where two competing retailers purchase a perishable product from a common supplier and sell to a common market employing the isoelastic demand model we derive the closed form solutions of the optimal order quantity the optimal selling price and the maximal profit and revenue probability for each retailer it is shown that when revenue is a relevant performance measure positive and non positive salvage values lead to different optima for competing retailers moreover as price elasticity and or price competition intensity becomes higher the optimal retail price decreases and the optimal order quantity increases for each retailer

a three person game theory model arising in stochastic inventory control theory abstract in this paper we build a game theory model for a single period inventory problem where each of three retailers tries to determine his optimal order quantity their products are substitutable and have random demands therefore multiple direction demand transfers occur when one or more retailers are sold out it is shown that by using nash equilibrium optimal decision exists for each retailer when they work independently the optimal order quantity in this case is larger than that under the newsboy problem model this is because substitution can be a source of sales and hence a justification for inventory in situations where some retailer may act irrationally to inflict a damage on the others the defensive strategy for the latter is to totally ignore the existence of the irrational player we also study the cooperation of retailers by switching excess inventory to those who have excess demand both when side payments are and are not allowed if side payments are not allowed secure nash strategies always exist for each retailer and cooperation will reduce inventory the latter is especially true when the depreciation of value of the item and or inventory carrying cost are large we give conditions for cooperation in both cases and show that although all player cooperation is often feasible it may not always be obtainable even if side payments are allowed

how legal environments affect the use of bond covenants we examine how country level legal and institutional investor protection shapes contractual creditor protection we examine debt covenant information from foreign corporate bonds issued in the us from more than 50 countries between 1991 and 2007 we find that bonds of firms incorporated in countries with stronger creditor rights use fewer covenants this finding suggests that creditor protection substitutes for covenants in reducing the agency cost of debt in contrast bonds of firms with stronger shareholder rights or firms with stronger firm level corporate governance use more covenants these findings support the notion that firms with stronger shareholder control may face an increase in the shareholder bondholder conflict and therefore prefer to use more covenants however greater shareholder rights are not associated with the use of more covenant restrictions on equity issuance as firms with greater minority shareholder protection are unlikely to suffer such equity dilution

devaluation levels versus rates abstract in a context of infinitely lived families a la sidrauski where consumers are lump sum compensated for the inflation tax and there is no capital mobility it is shown that a devaluation improves while an increase in the rate of devaluation deteriorates the balance of payments

self enforcing voting in international organizations some international organizations are governed by unanimity rule some others by a majority system still others have moved from one system to the other over time the existing voting models have a difficult time explaining the observed variation in governance mode and in particular the widespread occurrence of the unanimity system we present a model whose main departure from standard voting models is that there is no external enforcement mechanism each country is sovereign and cannot be forced to follow the collective decision or in other words the voting system must be self enforcing the model yields unanimity as the optimal system for a wide range of parameters and delivers rich predictions on the variation in the mode of governance both across organizations and over time we thank james anderson matt jackson francois maniquet guido tabellini and jean tirole for very helpful comments arnaud costinot provided excellent research assistance we also bene

stocking retail assortments under dynamic consumer substitution we analyze a single period stochastic inventory model newsboy like model in which a sequence of heterogeneous customers dynamically substitute among product variants within a retail assortment when inventory is depleted the customer choice decisions are based on a natural and classical utility maximization criterion faced with such substitution behavior the retailer must choose initial inventory levels for the assortment to maximize expected profits using a sample path analysis we analyze structural properties of the expected profit function we show that under very general assumptions on the demand process total sales of each product are concave in their own inventory levels and possess the so calleddecreasing differences property meaning that the marginal value of an additional unit of the given product is decreasing in the inventory levels of all other products for a continuous relaxation of the problem we then show via counterexamples that the expected profit function is in general not even quasiconcave thus global optimization may be difficult however we propose and analyze a stochastic gradient algorithm for the problem and prove that it converges to a stationary point of the expected profit function under mild conditions finally we apply the algorithm to a set of numerical examples and compare the resulting inventory decisions to those of some simpler naive heuristics the examples show that substitution effects can have a significant impact on an assortment s gross profits the examples also illustrate some systematic distortions in inventory decisions if substitution effects are ignored in particular under substitution one should stock relatively more of popular variants and relatively less of unpopular variants than a traditional newsboy analysis indicates

can t pay or won t pay unemployment negative equity and strategic default this paper uses new data from the psid to quantify the relative importance of negative equity versus ability to pay in driving mortgage defaults between 2009 and 2013 these data allow us to construct household budgets sets that provide better measures of ability to pay changes in ability to pay have large estimated effects job loss has an equivalent effect on the propensity to default as a 35 decline in equity strategic motives are also found to be quantitatively important as we estimate more than 38 of households in default could make their mortgage payments without reducing consumption received september 29 2015 editorial decision june 2 2017 by editor philip strahan authors have furnished an internet appendix which is available on the oxford university pressweb site next to the link to the final published paper online

collective action clauses in international sovereign bond contracts whence the opposition in the debate on strengthening the international financial architecture which peaked in 2002 after a series of emerging market sovereign debt crises the universal adoption of collective action clauses cacs was the most promising reform proposal academics and the official sector had been promoting cacs at least since 1995 yet market practice did not begin to change until 2003 this delay is often attributed to the opposition of investors and sovereign borrower to cacs this paper evaluates the publicly stated as well as the suspected private motives of the two sides to block the spread of cacs it draws on a wide range of existing evidence and adds some new theoretical considerations to show that there is no reason to be sceptical of cacs unless bailouts exist as an alternative crisis resolution mechanism this conclusion may be of interest purely for the sake of historical accuracy but more importantly it may help to better understand any potential future resistance by market participants e g in the process of introducing cacs in bonds governed by german law

the effect of negative equity on mortgage default evidence from hamp s principal reduction alternative the home affordable modification program s hamp s principal reduction alternative pra is a government sponsored program to reduce the principal balances and monthly mortgage payments of troubled borrowers we examine the effect of principal forgiveness on borrowers subsequent mortgage default the program s rules imply a kink in the relationship between principal forgiveness and a borrower s initial equity level our identification strategy exploits the quasi experimental variation in principal forgiveness generated by this kink using a regression kink design rkd which compares the relationship between initial equity and default on either side of the kink we estimate that hamp pra reduced the quarterly default hazard from 3 8 to 3 1 received february 4 2015 accepted august 2 2015 by editor philip strahan

how does liquidity affect government bond yields the paper explores the determinants of yield differentials between sovereign bonds using euro area data there is a common trend in yield differentials which is correlated with a measure of aggregate risk in contrast liquidity differentials display sizeable heterogeneity and no common factor we propose a simple model with endogenous liquidity demand where a bond s liquidity premium depends both on its transaction cost and on investment opportunities the model predicts that yield differentials should increase in both liquidity and risk with an interaction term of the opposite sign testing these predictions on daily data we find that the aggregate risk factor is consistently priced liquidity differentials are priced for a subset of countries and their interaction with the risk factor is in line with the model s prediction and crucial to detect their effect

inventory competition and allocation in a multi channel distribution system abstract consider a supply chain involving one manufacturer and one independent retailer the manufacturer distributes her product to the end consumer through the independent retailer as well as through her direct channel each of the two channels faces a stochastic demand if one channel is out of stock a fraction of the unsatisfied customers visit the other channel which induces inventory competition between the channels under the scenario described above will the manufacturer ever undercut the retailer s order when the capacity is infinite what are the equilibria of the game how does a capacity constraint affect the equilibrium outcome what is the optimal inventory allocation strategy for the manufacturer using a game theoretic model we seek answers to the above questions both the capacitated and the infinite capacity games are considered we establish the necessary condition for a manufacturer to undercut a retailer s order and show that a manufacturer may deny the retailer of inventory even when the capacity is ample we show that there can be an equilibrium in the capacitated game where a manufacturer might not use the entire capacity and still deny a retailer inventory we also show that a mild capacity constraint may make both parties better off and thereby increase the total supply chain profit we develop a simple yet practical contract called the reverse revenue sharing contract and show that along with a fixed franchise fee this contract can coordinates our decentralized supply chain

bond returns liquidity and missing data this paper examines holding period returns to constant duration portfolios of u s govern ment notes and bonds and measures the return premium generated by liquidity differences in bonds the approach compares constant duration portfolios constructed in two distinct ways one using only bonds issued in the most recent treasury auction one using all other bonds comparisons of the resulting series are made meaningful by choosing narrow du ration ranges in the portfolio formation procedure this in turn induces a missing data problem in the created time series parameters of return distributions are therefore estimated employing a maximum likelihood framework that explicitly accounts for the missing data it is estimated that recently issued bonds are priced to return a premium of around 55 basis points per annum over otherwise equivalent instruments

bond restructuring and moral hazard are collective action clauses costly abstract recent emerging market crises have prompted debate over the costs and benefits of collective action clauses cacs in bond contracts cacs may facilitate the restructuring of repayment terms in the event of financial distress proponents of cacs argue they should lower borrowing costs while opponents contend that they lead to moral hazard and increased borrowing costs this paper examines the pricing of bonds with and without cacs using data for both primary and secondary market yields and finds no evidence that the presence of cacs has increased yields for either higher or lower rated issuers

the on the run liquidity phenomenon abstract we test the implications of a model of multi asset speculative trading in which liquidity differentials between on the run and off the run u s treasury bonds ensue from endowment shocks in the presence of two realistic market frictions information heterogeneity and imperfect competition among informed traders and a public signal our evidence suggests that i off on the run liquidity differentials are economically and statistically significant even after controlling for several of the bonds intrinsic characteristics such as duration convexity repo rates or term premiums and ii off on the run liquidity differentials are smaller immediately following bond auction dates and larger when the uncertainty surrounding the ensuing auction allocations is high when the dispersion of beliefs across informed traders is high and when macroeconomic announcements are noisy consistent with our model

inventory competition under dynamic consumer choice we analyze a model of inventory competition among n firms that provide competing substitutable goods each firm chooses initial inventory levels for their good in a single period newsboy like inventory model customers choose dynamically based on current availability so the inventory levels at one firm affect the demand of all competingfirms this creates a strategic interaction amongthe firms inventory decisions our work extends earlier work on variations of this problem by karjalainen 1992 lippman and mccardle 1997 and parlar 1988 specifically we model demand in a more realistic way as a stochastic sequence of heterogeneous consumers who choose dynamically from amongthe available goods or choose not to purchase based on a utility maximization criterion we also use a sample path analysis so minimal assumptions are imposed on this demand process we characterize the nash equilibrium of the resulting stocking game and prove it is unique in the symmetric case we show there is a bias toward overstocking caused by competition specifically reducing the quantity stocked at any equilibrium of the game increases total system profits and at any joint optimal set of stocking levels each firm has an individual incentive to increase its own stock for the symmetric case we show that as the number of competing firms increases the overstockingbecomes so severe that total system and individual firm profits approach zero finally we propose a stochastic gradient algorithm for computing equilibria and provide several numerical examples

technical note a multiperiod model of inventory competition this paper explores when it is important for firms to consider stockout based substitution and competitor s inventory levels in making inventory decisions in the context of a duopoly model to address this question we consider a model where two newsvendors sell substitutable products in a market with aggregate market demand d the two firms get a proportion p and 1 p of this demand where p is random we characterize the equilibrium inventory levels of the two firms in a single period model and show the striking property that under certain reasonable conditions on the cost parameters the two firms ignore their competitor s inventory levels and potential substitution demand i e their inventory decisions are decoupled furthermore we show under slightly more restrictive conditions on the cost parameters that the single period results can be extended to the case where d is random finally we extend the decoupling property to a multiperiod periodic review scenario and show that the resulting nash equilibrium can be characterized simply as the solution to a single product dynamic newsvendor problem that ignores substitution demand

willingness to pay estimation with choice based conjoint analysis addressing extreme response behavior with individually adapted designs the increasing consideration of behavioral aspects in operations management models has prompted greater use of choice based conjoint cbc studies in operations research such studies can elicit consumers willingness to pay wtp a core input for many optimization models however optimization models can yield valid results only if consumers wtp is estimated accurately a simulation study and two field studies show that extreme response behavior in cbc studies such that consumers always or never choose the no purchase option harms the validity of wtp estimates reporting the share of consumers who always and never select the no purchase option allows for detecting extreme response behavior this study suggests an individually adapted design that avoids extreme response behavior and thus significantly improves wtp estimation accuracy

presidential address debt and money financial constraints and sovereign finance economic analyses of corporate finance money and sovereign debt are largely considered separately i introduce a novel corporate finance framing of sovereign finance based on the analogy between fiat liabilities for sovereigns and equity for corporations the analysis focuses on financial constraints at the country level making explicit the trade offs involved in relying on domestic versus foreign currency debt to finance investments or government expenditures this framing provides new insights into issues ranging from the costs and benefits of inflation optimal foreign exchange reserves and sovereign debt restructuring

a high frequency assessment of the ecb securities markets programme policy impact studies often suffer from endogeneity problems consider the case of the european central bank ecb securities markets programme if eurosystem interventions were triggered by sudden and strong price deteriorations looking at daily price changes may bias downward the correlation between yields and the amounts of bonds purchased simple regressions of daily changes in yields on quantities often give insignificant or even positive coefficients and therefore suggest that securities markets programme smp interventions have been ineffective or worse counterproductive we use high frequency data on purchases of the ecb securities markets programme and sovereign bond quotes to address the simultaneity and endogeneity issues we propose a vector autoregressive var framework estimated at several frequencies to better measure the smp impact and its persistence our results show that smp interventions have been effective in reducing yields of government bonds for the countries under the program

mortgage modification and strategic behavior evidence from a legal settlement with countrywide abstract we investigate whether homeowners respond strategically to news of mortgage modification programs we exploit plausibly exogenous variation in modification policy induced by settlement of us state government lawsuits against countrywide financial corporation which agreed to offer modifications to seriously delinquent borrowers using a difference in differences framework we find that countrywide s monthly delinquency rate increased more than 0 54 percentage points a 10 percent relative increase immediately after the settlement s announcement the estimated increase in default rates is largest among borrowers least likely to default otherwise these results suggest that strategic behavior should be an important consideration in designing mortgage modification programs jel d14 g21 k22 r31

the setting of profit targets for target oriented divisions abstract setting profit targets and striving to achieve them is fundamental to business survival and success however there has been little research on modeling profit target setting in this paper we study analytic target setting under a common business scenario where a firm is in control of multiple divisions both the firm and the divisions maximize the profit probability i e the probability of achieving some given profit target the firm sets a profit target for each division which then acts as a price setting newsvendor we first obtain the optimal order quantity the optimal retail price and the maximal profit probability of a single division given its assigned target we then derive the firm s profit probability and focus on two specific cases to gain more managerial insights in the first case of fair target setting we show that when each division s demand distribution has an increasing failure rate if a division has a relatively high low production cost its assigned profit target decreases increases with regard to its price elasticity in the second case if the firm is in control of two identical divisions each division s optimal profit target is just half of the firm s profit target when the price elasticity is two or more regardless of production cost and demand distribution