a re evaluation of the relation between wages and unemployment in the united kingdom this paper examines the long run or equilibrium relationship between wages prices and the unemployment rate in the united kingdom using annual data covering the period 1860 1999 using johansen s maximum likelihood method of testing for cointegration two long run relations are found in a small system of four variables the first relation depicts the co movement of the level of real wages adjusted for productivity together with the unemployment rate and the rate of inflation the second relation shows the co movement between the rate of inflation and deviations of productivity from its trend growth

labour demand and job to job movement the relationship between labour demand and job to job movement is investigated both theoretically and empirically at the macro level it concentrates on the role of the employment regime hiring do nothing or firing and the hiring and firing costs the exact upper bounds of the marginal hiring costs of an employed worker are derived for which job mobility between two firms yields a positive aggregate relationship between job to job movement and employment the relationship is estimated as a cointegration model for the netherlands it appears that the inclusion of the job to job mobility rate may provide a substantial improvement of the estimated labour demand equation

welfare reform and unemployment in new zealand in the early 1990s new zealand cut benefits and tightened eligibility criteria under its main social welfare programmes these benefit changes varied substantially across both time and demographic groups synthetic panel data are used econometrically to isolate the effects of these reforms on several dimensions of unemployment behaviour a simple theoretical model suggests that cutting benefits could either increase or decrease excess labour supply our results indicate that these reforms increased the official unemployment rate by nearly one quarter of a percentage point but significantly reduced broader measures of economic inactivity or the under utilization of labour in the new zealand economy

imperfect competition multiple equilibria and unemployment policy this paper takes a simple imperfectly competitive macro model with increasing returns and shows how it can lead to nonexistence or multiplicity of equilibria the consequences for government policy toward unemployment are explored and shown to be very different from the traditional model it is argued that a multiple equilibrium model is an attractive possible explanation of the behavior of u k unemployment in the 1980s copyright 1990 by royal economic society

relative earnings and individual union membership in the united kingdom considerable attention has been focused in recent years on the empirical analysis of the effect of trade unions on the structure of earnings such empirical investigation usually entails measurement of the union non union differential in wages or earnings at the level of the individual this involves comparison of the earnings of union members with estimates of what their earnings would be were they not union members or equivalently examination of differences in earnings between individuals comparable with regard to all other relevant characteristics who differ in their union membership alone in the united kingdom all previous attempts at estimation of this differential have used aggregate data at either the industry or occupation level 1 the conventional methodology involves regression of the logarithm of the average wage on either the proportion of workers who are union members or the proportion covered by a collective agreement together with a vector of industry characteristics that are deemed to determine the non union wage however several problems are immediately apparent with this methodology first the model ignores the possibility of variation in the differential across industries which has potentially serious consequences second the vector of other characteristics customarily used is somewhat limited and raises doubts concerning the adequacy of the standardization for what might loosely be termed labour quality third only a sub sample of industries is ever used owing to lack of data those industries excluded are generally smaller in terms of employment that those included if the differential varies with the size of the industry a further bias will be induced all of these problems are either removed or lessened by the use of individual level data for an analysis of their impact at the industry level see geroski and stewart 1981 2 as a result it is now widely accepted that the appropriate way to measure such differentials is to use micro data sets at the level of the individual worker until recently suitable data have not been available for the united kingdom and hence such analysis was not possible this paper presents the first estimates for the united kingdom based on individual level data if the value of the union non union differential were the same for all workers in the unionized sector analysis at the industry level and the individual level would produce similar results however the marshallian laws of derived demand suggest that this will not be the case despite this clear prediction of variation in the differential there has been little systematic investigation of the variation this paper also presents such an analysis since variation in the differential across industries results in aggregation bias in industry level studies such an analysis is of considerable relevance to the evaluation of the evidence from such studies as well as being of interest in its own right the paper is laid out as follows section i presents a method of estimating the union non union differential at the individual level while section ii

rational ponzi games when can a government run a rational ponzi game i e issue debt and never pay back any interest or principal the transversalit y condition of each individual implies that such schemes require an i nfinity of lenders given this horizons are unimportant ponzi games cannot be ruled out by assuming that agents have infinite horizons the authors point out both the basic similarity of and some key diff erences between rational ponzi games and asset price bubbles or fiat money regarding international debt the analysis implies that what matters for the feasibility of rational ponzi games are conditions in the lenders not the borrowers economy copyright 1988 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

the determinants of equilibrium unemployment in britain a lot of energy is currently being expended in trying to understand what has been happening to unemployment in britain and the rest of the developed world in this paper we look at this question in the british context by trying to confront some possible explanations with the data since the data we use are quarterly over rather a short period we are setting the explanations a very hard test most explanations tend to be rather casual and the theories underpinning them ill developed thus for example the so called real wage argument is based on the idea that real wages affect labour demand and that the equilibrium real wage bears some relatively stable relationship to output per head but how stable is not clear thus whether or not we can expect a well defined stable ceteris paribus dynamic relationship between real product wages as a proportion of output per head and unemployment is equally unclear so if such a relationship does not show up in a quarterly regression model this may not be that serious for the theory nevertheless we must look for the relationship for how else are we ever to discriminate between a plethora of conflicting views the primary emphasis in this paper is on the secular factors affecting unemployment rather than the cyclical variables consequently we shall not be concerned with developing a coherent theory of cyclical fluctuations and in the empirical work we shall control for the cycle simply by making use of those exogenous or predetermined variables which other work in this field suggests are important 2 the remainder of the paper is set out as follows the next section is concerned with specifying a model which generates a definition of equilibrium unemployment the outline of this model is a pair of equations determining the flows into and out of unemployment and these are specified in section ii which looks closely at the possible variables involved section iii then deals with the results and presents some general conclusions

the inada conditions for material resource inputs reconsidered it is shown that the thermodynamic law of conservation of mass the so called materials balance principle implies that the marginal product as well as the average product of a material resource input are bounded from above this means that the inada conditions one of the standard assumptions of economic growth theory when applied to material resource inputs are inconsistent with a basic law of nature the analysis is based on a model of multi level production where intermediate goods are produced from elementary resources and an all purpose final commodity is produced from these intermediates

local pay determination theoretical models of local pay are reviewed ranging from neoclassical perspectives unemployment wage trade off models and segmented labor market approaches the empirical work on u s north south differentials is discussed for the u k studies of the extent of and trends in geographical pay differentials are considered as well as behavioral explanations focusing on the role of excess demand the issue of adjustment processes is then discussed both in theory and in relation to empirical work for the u s and u k this discussion focuses largely on geographical spillover effects in terms of origins evidence and issues of identification finally the impact of certain impediments in the adjustment process are considered specifically in relation to the u k these concern the role and influence of national wage bargaining as well as factors inhibiting labor migration stemming from the housing market and the climate of the national labor market copyright 1992 by blackwell publishers ltd

are green hopes too rosy employment and welfare impacts of renewable energy promotion in view of pressing unemployment problems policy makers across all parties jump on the prospects of renewable energy promotion as a job creation engine which can boost economic well being our analytical model shows that initial labor market rigidities in theory provide some scope for such a double dividend however the practical outcome of renewable energy promotion might be sobering our computable general equilibrium analysis of subsidized electricity production from renewable energy sources res e in germany suggests that the prospects for employment and welfare gains are quite limited and hinge crucially on the level of the subsidy rate and the financing mechanism if res e subsidies are financed by labor taxes welfare and employment effects are strictly negative for a broad range of subsidy rates the use of an electricity tax to fund res e subsidies generates minor benefits for small subsidy rates but these benefits quickly turn into significant losses as the subsidy rate exceeds some threshold value

dynamic wage employment bargaining with employment adjustment costs this paper looks at the consequences of introducing employment adjustment costs into two standard models of trade unions the right to manage model and the efficient bargain model the authors look at how unions affect both the speed of adjustment to equilibrium and the long run equilibrium they examine the consequences of the model for the estimation of dynamic labor demand equations and for the testing of trade union models copyright 1989 by royal economic society

wage inflation and unemployment in europe the regional dimension johnes g and hyclak t j 1989 wage inflation and unemployment in europe the regional dimension reg studies 23 19 26 in this paper a bargaining model of wage and unemployment determination is used to estimate regional phillips curves for britain italy and the federal republic of germany estimates of region specific non accelerating inflation rates of unemployment nairu are provided movements of these over time are examined the impact of inter regional differences in wage rigidity on unemployment change is analysed in the final section johnes g et hyclak t j 1989 l inflation par les salaires et le chomage en europe l optique regional reg studies 23 19 26 cet article se sert d un modele de la determination des salaires et de l emploi afin d estimer des courbes de phillips pour la grande bretagne l italie et la republique federale allemande on fournit des estimations des taux de chomage regionaux etant donne une inflation stable et on examine les mouvements de ces taux sur le temp

short run employment functions when the speed of adjustment depends on the unemployment rate a bstratacross industry and country comparisons have found the speed of adjustment in short run employment functions to be positively related to the rate of unemployment the present paper develops a time series model in which the reaction coefficient varies with unemployment and estimates it for the manufacturing sectors of the eight oecd countries for which suitable data are available the new model is non linear and is estimated using full information maximum likelihood procedures application of the log likelihood ratio test finds that the new vanable reaction coefficient model is superior to the fixed reaction coefficient model for the united states canada australia austria ireland and the united kingdom

reconciling the wage curve and the phillips curve the wage curve is the negative relationship that links wage levels to the unemployment rate it fits accurately with modern non competitive labour market models but goes against a phillips curve modelling because the latter ties wage growth to the unemployment rate in this article we present a comprehensive review of these non competitive models highlighting recent contributions that try to eliminate the possible gap that exists between the concepts of the wage curve on the one hand and the phillips curve on the other copyright blackwell publishers ltd 2005

non linear production abatement pollution and materials balance reconsidered abstract in the environmental economics literature the standard approach of modeling non linear production and abatement processes is to treat waste emissions simply as another factor of production cropper and oates j econ lit 30 1992 675 740 that approach does not map the materials flow involved completely and hides moreover the exact links between production residuals generation and abatement this paper shows that production functions with emissions treated as inputs can be reconstructed as a subsystem of a comprehensive production cum abatement technology that is in line with the materials balance principle in a simple economy with full regard of the materials flow it also explores the consequences for allocative efficiency and efficiency restoring taxation of multiple and interdependent residuals generated in the transformation processes of production abatement and consumption finally the paper demonstrates that efficiency may require setting the emissions tax rate above or below conventionally defined marginal abatement cost if the residual subject to abatement is not the only residual causing pollution

policy review section in this policy review section gerry stoker of the institute of local government studies presents a critical review of the role of urban development corporations udcs in comparing the experience of the udcs consideration is given to the varying nature of the land and property market in each udc area to the relationship with local authorities and other local bodies and the regeneration strategies pursued by the udcs this is followed by an assessment of the impact of the udcs in economic social and political terms in the second article john britton of the university of toronto examines the theoretical case for interventionist public policies to assist the innovation process in small and medium sized enterprises these arguments are supported by a review of the experience of various national support programmes introduced in the uk in particular the manufacturing advisory service introduced in 1978 and the design advisory service launched in 1982

an introduction to the wage curve en conomists and policymakers are interested in understanding the forces that determine the level of unemployment and the level of wages this paper describes an empirical discovery made with the help of international microeconometric evidence covering more than a dozen nations about a link between these two variables the connection can be portrayed on a graph with the level of unemployment on the horizontal axis and the level of wages on the vertical axis then the wage curve as shown in figure 1 is a downwardsloping locus this relationship tells us that holding others things constant if a region has a rise in unemployment in a particular year those who live there will have a fall in their wages in that year what does this curve mean how in a field where fully controlled experiments are almost impossible could there be any convincing scientific basis for this wage curve what is the relationship between the wage curve and a phillips curve other than that the curve of figure 1 looks like a phillips curve with the vertical axis mislabeled how does the wage curve fit into existing economic knowledge and is the empirical finding consistent with competitive theory this paper sketches answers to these kinds of questions the discussion draws on our book the wage curve blanchflower and oswald 1994 where the points raised here are investigated more fully it also rests upon work done by other economists whose work is listed in the paper and the bibliography

customer markets credit market imperfections and real price rigidity according to standard theory an increase in demand should raise prices of goods given factor prices empirically however prices appear to be unaffected by short run variations in demand this paper suggests an explanation of this observation if customers react slowly to price changes and credit markets are imperfect prices may be unchanged or even fall when demand increases the reason is that when demand is high profits are high and firms can compete more intensely for customers without increasing their borrowing copyright 1991 by the london school of economics and political science

mind the gap please the changing nature of entry jobs in britain we examine wages in jobs taken by those out of work entry jobs and the characteristics of the individuals who fill them there are large entry wage gaps relative to other jobs more importantly real entry wages have fallen by around 20 log points relative to all other jobs since 1979 one quarter of this decline is accounted for by differences in individual and job characteristics and around 40 from an unexplained fall in the position of entry jobs in the wage distribution that entry wages differ from the stock of all wages should be incorporated into labour supply modelling

does ecological economics have a future contradiction and reinvention in the age of climate change abstract this paper addresses the role of neoclassical methodologies in ecological economics and the contradictions these methodologies pose to the field s critical founding principles we first consider robert costanza s treatment of nicholas stern s global deal and then survey climate change related articles published in this journal over the past five years this survey reveals how mainstream neoclassical methodologies dominate discourse and do so by marginalizing more critical political economy analyses this situation imperils the field s founding vision of a no growth steady state it also fails to address the related growth dynamics of capitalism without such a critical treatment the field s formal embrace of methodological pluralism actually entails an ideological empiricism that renders ecological economics theoretically incoherent this situation undermines the field s historical promise as an alternative economic paradigm ecological economics now faces a problematic future its survival in a form faithful to its founding vision will require an explicit choice to address its internal contradictions and reinvent itself in ways relevant to our contemporary context without such a choice ecological economics will likely succumb to an implicit acceptance of the hegemony of mainstream economic methodologies and their pro growth imperatives

labor adjustment costs in a destination country the case of mexico abstract rodrik rodrik d 1997 has globalization gone too far institute for international economics washington dc argues that firms use the threat of moving to low cost generally developing markets to make employment more flexible at home although a large literature documents significant adjustment costs in developed countries we know little about their size and importance in developing countries that receive capital we employ monthly mexican data from the gatt nafta period to estimate adjustment costs in mexico we consider adjustment costs for production and non production workers and allow for asymmetry while patterns of adjustment costs are similar as in developed countries adjustment costs in mexico are generally an order of magnitude smaller

are bond financed deficits inflationary a ricardian analysis this paper considers the possible theoretical validity of the following monetarist hypothesis that a constant positive government budget deficit can be maintained permanently and without inflation if it is financed by the issue of bonds rather than money the question is studied in a discrete time perfect foresight version of the competitive equilibrium model of sidrauski modified by the inclusion of government bonds as a third asset it is shown that the monetarist hypothesis is invalid if the deficit is defined exclusive of interest payments but that it is valid under the conventional definition it is also shown that the stock of bonds can grow indefinitely at a rate in excess of the rate of output growth provided that the difference is less than the rate of time preference these formal conclusions do not take account of possible limitations on taxing capacity arising from default incentives that tend to grow with the stock of bonds

inflation and the uk labour market inflation is endemic in britain aside from the odd year inflation in britain has been higher than the average of the oecd countries for the last forty years this is as true for the anti inflationary 1980s as for the inflationary 1970s and the libertarian 1960s in the light of this fact we look at the problem of inflation both in general terms and in the british context furthermore we shall consider inflation from a particular point of view namely that of the labour market although it would perhaps be more apt to describe the viewpoint as the supply side

interest rate bounds and fiscal policy when the monetary authority controls the short term interest rate we find that under a regime of permanent and even persistent but temporary deficits that a strict upper bound on the feasible interest rate sequence is present more generally the satisfaction of the fiscal authority s present value budget constraint in the presence of a deficit sequence means that monetary and fiscal decisions cannot be independent this is an important caveat to the results in mccallum j political econ 92 1984 123

environmental emissions and production economics implications of the materials balance in modeling emissions the literature has usually specified an explicit emission function or treated emissions as a production input we examine the validity of these approaches taking into account the materials balance principle we show that a technology can equivalently be described by i a production function with material and nonmaterial inputs and bounded marginal product of the material input ii a well behaved production function with emissions as an input and iii a well behaved emission function if the materials balance is accounted for as an additional condition we offer a forma derivation of common but not rigorously established modeling approaches

unemployment in britain male unemployment in britain has risen from around 2 per cent in the 1950s to around 17 per cent in 1985 see figure 1 the figures are for male unemployment because there is no consistent series for women 1 even more remarkably unemployment has fallen in only three years out of the last twenty 1973 1978 and 1979 to account for this we need a model that explains both changes in the natural or non accelerating inflation rate of unemployment nairu and deviations from it we use a three equation supply side model centred on the labour market this has two main features the first concerns the determination of employment in the short run the labour demand function that we use cuts through the fruitless debate now raging especially in europe as to whether current unemployment is classical or keynesian according to the classical view employment is too high because real wages are too high according to the keynesian view real wages are not binding and unemployment is high because the product market does not clear with prices too high relative to nominal demand the whole debate is set in the framework of perfect competition yet in perfect competition prices are set by impersonal forces and it is not clear what could possibly stop prices clearing the market it is much more reasonable to think of prices as being set by imperfectly competitive firms existing prices being the best they can think of given the demand they face in this context firms demand for labour will depend on both the real product wage and the level of real aggregate demand this is the demand function we estimate and it conforms both to common sense and to the data however this does not imply that employment can be made to grow without limit by pumping up real demand for in the medium term when price surprises are eliminated our model determines three variables employment real wages and real demand on the basis of three equations an employment equation a price equation and a wage equation thus in the medium term there is a natural level of employment and corresponding to this a natural level of real aggregate demand the second key feature of our model concerns the medium term determination of unemployment in the medium term the planned mark up of wages over prices in wage settlements must be consistent with the mark up of prices over wage costs in employers pricing behaviour for if wage setters try to set real product wages higher than is consistent with employers pricing behaviour this generates ever increasing inflation thus the key to understanding unemployment in the medium term is the behaviour of wage setters if events occur that push them towards too high real wages then unemployment has to rise to offset these influences we shall call these influences wage pressure variables or push factors and they are clearly crucial in understanding unemployment the variables here include the social security system employment protection

unemployment dynamics in britain we examine the inter related dynamics of the unemployment flows and stock our model allows them to be linked through the standard accounting identity but also through behavioural relationships we find that for the uk the bulk of the correlation between duration and the unemployment stock arises from the dependence of duration on unemployment taking careful account of the inter temporal identity outflow shocks have contributed little to the evolution of unemployment since the late 1960s given that the correlation of duration and unemployment arises from the behavioural relationship we show that unemployment dynamics arise mostly from shocks to the inflow unemployment remains one of europe s more pressing economic and social problems as highlighted in the eu s lisbon declaration of 2000 a dynamic approach to unemployment starts from the recognition that unemployment is a stock and changes through shocks to the outflow and inflow the research and policy focus has generally been on the outflow process or equivalently unemployment duration a glance at figure 1 shows why this might be so it reveals a very strong co movement of the unemployment rate and the proportion of the unemployed out of work for a year or more analysts have used data like this to argue that the source of unemployment fluctuations has been changes in the outflow process 1 possibly as a consequence of this most policies directed at reducing unemployment focus on improving the search effectiveness and employability of the currently unemployed the unemployment flows and stock are related in quite complex ways and in this paper we focus on these inter related dynamics the model we use allows them to be linked in two ways first there is the simple accounting relationship whereby shocks to the flows accumulate in the stock second search and matching models suggest behavioural relationships of the flows depending on unemployment the presence of the nonlinear accounting identity in the model makes the analysis of the joint system problematic so we proceed sequentially investigating first one link and then the other we find that for the uk the bulk of the correlation between duration and the unemployment stock displayed in figure 1 arises from the dependence of the former on the latter we find a strong dependence of the outflow rate on unemployment taking careful account of the inter temporal identity on the other hand outflow shocks have contributed little to the evolution of unem

money debt and prices in the united kingdom 1705 1996 this paper constructs a consistent series for the market value of uk government debt over almost 300 years analysing how monetary and fiscal policy affect the path of the uk price level specifically it examines the interactions between debts deficits the monetary base and the price level overall the price level has been closely related to the evolution of the base money supply across different sample periods there is little econometric evidence that fiscal policy has affected the course of the price level or of the exchange rate under the gold standard government debt has not significantly affected the base money stock either

selected works of michael wallerstein centralized bargaining and wage restraint the literature on corporatism has presented much evidence associating highly centralized systems of collective bargaining with wage restraint and relatively successful macroeconomic performance in addition centralized bargaining is associated with relatively small wage differentials this paper presents a model of the impact of centralized wage setting on both real wages and relative wages the central assumption is that the centralization of wage setting at the national level unites unions who are complements in production since a wage increase for one group of workers negatively affects the welfare of other workers who are complements in production centralized wage setters choose wages below the equilibrium of decentralized wage setting it is also shown that if the union confederation maximizes a utilitarian welfare function with equal weights centralized wage setting decreases wage dispersion while low paid workers clearly gain from centralized bargaining high paid workers may prefer that bargaining be decentralized

job loss and the regional incidence of redundancies in the current recession industrial change is a two sided process it both creates new plants production methods and jobs and displaces others at present in operation but the two sides of this process rarely coincide in time or space and in britain over the past fifteen years or so the develop ment path of the economy has been increasingly dominated by displacement effects whether measured in terms of output exports investment or employment there has been a cumulative weakening of the contribution of manufacturing to the national economy an unprecedented de industrialisation although opinions differ over the precise causes of this persistent industrial decline it is clear that the british economy has become caught in a process of declining external competitiveness which is both a consequence and a cause of a deteriorating economic environment characterised by low profits the holding back of new investment and insufficient job opportunities blackaby 1978 hughes 1981 cambridge economic policy group 1982 it is the absolute decline in industrial employ ment sustained now for some sixteen years and accelerated by the current recession that is one of the worrying features of this deindustrialisation from a peak level in 1966 total industrial employment has declined by over four million of which three million is accounted for by jobs lost in manufacturing during the 1970s there were some increases in service employment especially in the public sector which offset the decline in manufac turing jobs but that offsetting trend came to a halt towards the end of the decade over the period 1966 81 service employment increased by just over one million so that the loss of four million jobs in industry has been primarily reflected not by jobs created else where in the economy but by an increase in the army of unemployed of nearly three million industrial unemployment is now more than ten times what it was in 1966 this decline in the demand for labour has been characterised by a number of cyclical phases over the last decade or so cycles in the rate of capital accumulation appear to have become more marked and to have been accompanied by pronounced swings in the financial balance of a large number of firms and industries much of the labour displacement that has occurred during these crises has been concentrated in a single year within the four or five year cycle as in 1967 1971 1975 and in the current recession in 1980 with out doubt this latest downturn is the most severe of the post war period an economic col lapse that has been sharply intensified by the tory government s pursuance of restrictive monetarist policies to combat inflation and a laissez faire approach to the supply side of

testing steady state implications for the nairu estimates of the nairu are usually derived either from a phillips curve or from a wage curve this paper investigates the correspondence between the operational nairu concepts and the steady state of a dynamic wage price model we derive the parameter restrictions that secure that correspondence the full set of restrictions can be tested by econometric analysis of the wage price system and this method is demonstrated for norwegian data a set of necessary conditions can be tested from estimated wage curves alone existing international evidence from empirical wage equations are reinterpreted in light of these conditions

employment in the british coal industry a test of the labour demand model the authors test the conventional model of labor demand against the alternative that bargaining takes place over both wages and employme nt for a time series cross section data set covering the british coal industry they note the difficulty of identifying the contract curve under the alternative hypothesis and suggest the use of variables affecting the union and management status quo points as instruments for the endogenous wage they find that outside variables such as benefits and manufacturing wages are important in determining the level of employment thus rejecting the labor demand model copyright 1988 by royal economic society

firing costs employment fluctuations and average employment an examination of germany west germany s employment promotion act of 1985 facilitated the use of fixed term contracts and increased the number of dismissals above which the employer is required to establish a social plan involving severance payments i assess the effect of this reduction in firing costs on movements in employment using monthly data on a panel of detailed manufacturing industries for 1977 92 i also examine the effect of introducing flexible hours of work in certain industries beginning in 1985 i find that employment adjustment was unaffected by the lower firing costs but slowed by the greater working hours flexibility

the effect of wage restraint on labour market flows the effects are studied of a wage restraint policy on flows in the labour market flows into and out of employment are distinguished and simple models are considered for these flows wage costs in particular are found to affect the flow of employment into unemployment which can be considered as a measure of job destruction but wage costs have no effect on the number of new hires which can be considered as a measure of job creation therefore wage moderation has preserved jobs that would otherwise have been destroyed the inflow of new hires is influenced by investments the generosity of the social benefit system and by structural mismatch apart from wage costs interest costs of firms also play a role in the job destruction process particularly since the beginning of the 1980s

the own wage elasticity of labor demand a meta regression analysis firms labor demand responses to wage changes are of key interest in empirical research and policy analysis however despite extensive research estimates of labor demand elasticities remain subject to considerable heterogeneity in this paper we conduct a comprehensive meta regression analysis to re assess the empirical literature on labor demand elasticities building on 942 elasticity estimates from 105 different studies we identify sources of variation in the absolute value of this elasticity heterogeneity due to the theoretical and empirical specification of the labor demand model different datasets used or sectors and countries considered explains more than 80 of the variation in the estimates we further find substantial evidence for the presence of publication selection bias as estimates of the own wage elasticity of labor demand are upwardly inflated

tests of alternative wage employment bargaining models with an application to the uk aggregate labour market abstract in this paper we propose a test that discriminates among alternative models of bargaining for wages and employment the test rests on a theoretical framework which encompasses both the labour demand and the efficient bargain models of wage and employment determination it is based on testing the cross equation restrictions implied for the coefficients of union power variables in reduced form wage and employment equations the test is illustrated for the layard and nickell model of the aggregate uk labour market for which it is found that one can reject both the labour demand model and the hypothesis that wage employment bargains are efficient in favour of a generalised model of inefficient bargaining for wages and employment

a new specification for aggregate employment in the u k this paper derives and estimates a new specification for aggregate employment on u k data which is to be preferred to existing alternatives on grounds of its empirical performance and theoretical consistency it provides new estimates of key parameters both the wage elasticity of labour demand and lags in employment adjustment are found to be significantly lower than existing estimates

estimating unemployment inflows outflows and long term unemployment in britain using the cointegration approach a model is estimated of flows into and out of unemployment using the johansen multivariate cointegration approach and uk data for the period 1974q4 to 1993q3 two long run equilibrium relationships are obtained covering the outflow rate and unemployment duration which include variables such as the replacement ratio structural change and output a unique feature of the model is that it allows the inflow rate to determine the outflow rate and vice versa this is argued to be important given the common european stylized fact that inflows and outflows are both countercyclical and strongly correlated thus if firms and workers are heterogeneous hiring and firing is contemporaneous necessitating the type of model estimated here some interesting results include the finding that output is not important in determining the outflow rate and that the speed of adjustment of the outflow rate to changes in its underlying equilibrium is slow in contrast the proportion of long term unemployed is positively re

production consumption and general equilibrium with physical constraints abstract this paper analyzes the consequences of integrating the conservation laws of mass and energy into the microeconomic models of production consumption and general equilibrium we show that abstract models and especially general equilibrium theory are consistent with these physical constraints but most applied and environmental economic models are not we analyze the consequences of physical conservation laws for substitution possibilities and show that these constraints limit the number of independent substitution processes but not the value of the substitution elasticities finally we propose a method for integrating physical constraints into static microeconomic models with a minimum of changes

contrasting experience of recession and spatial restructuring british shipbuilders plessey and metal box peck f w and townsend a r 1984 contrasting experience of recession and spatial re structuring british shipbuilders plessey and metal box reg studies 18 319 338 trends in aggregate economic indicators in the recent recession conceal marked variations in the experience of different industrial corporations within the meso economic sector in the uk this paper demonstrates such variations by comparing the nature of employment decline in three major uk corporations british shipbuilders plessey and metal box despite similar employment profiles since 1977 these three corporations have experienced very different trends in output productivity and profitability suggesting that their respective job losses have occurred for different reasons the origins of these job losses are examined in detail concentrating in particular on the regional incidence of major redundancies and closures the conclusion summarizes the factors which influence job loss and suggests extending the analysis to wider groups of

intertemporal rules with variable speed of adjustment an application to u k manufacturing employment this paper presents a procedure to estimate intertemporal dynamic decision rules where adjustment costs are assumed to be variable the estimation is based on the euler equation for purposes of illustration the authors concentrate on an employment function for the u k manufacturing sector where they find very significant effects of some variables that influence adjustment costs finally they point out an empirical result that has interesting implications when evaluating tests of efficient bargain models copyright 1989 by royal economic society

relative prices and the demand for labour in british manufacturing the existence of an aggregate demand for labour schedule derived from profit maximization of the individual firm and giving a negative relationship between the labour capital ratio and the real wage is central to most traditional theoretical macroeconomics even though such a relationship is typically not embodied in macroeconomic models but beginning with the work of dunlop 1938 and tarshis 1939 the negative relationship could not be found in the data a more modern reference is bodkin 1969 this evidence led naturally to disequilibrium analysis notably that of barro and grossman 1971 more recently sargent 1978 has attempted with some success to rehabilitate the demand for labour schedule by showing that costly adjustment of the workforce obscures the current relationship between the wage and labour demand while leaving it essentially intact that paper and the related one by neftci 1978 was criticized by geary and kennan 1979 because it had used retail prices to represent output prices and they showed that for a number of countries employment could not be explained satisfactorily by the real product wage however geary and kennan failed to allow for the simultaneous effect of the real prices of raw materials and capital services in this paper we shall see that allowing for the effects of other relative prices notably the price of inputs relative to output and the real interest rate the real wage has a powerful but slow acting negative effect on the demand for labour the long run elasticity is about 2 and the mean lag is over 18 months we also find that the price of inputs has a long run elasticity of about 2 and that high values of the real interest rate have a powerful depressant effect on the level of employment in manufacturing the most striking implication for policy of our analysis is that measures of demand output money government spending do not have a significant influence on manufacturing employment controlling for the effects of relative prices thus government macroeconomic policy can affect the level of employment in manufacturing if and only if it can affect relative prices

monetary compensations in climate policy through the lens of a general equilibrium assessment the case of oil exporting countries this paper investigates the compensations that major oil producers have claimed for since the kyoto protocol in order to alleviate the adverse impacts of climate policy on their economies the amount of these adverse impacts is assessed through a general equilibrium model which endogenizes both the reduction of oil exportation revenues under international climate policy and the macroeconomic effect of carbon pricing on middle east s economy we show that compensating the drop of exportation revenues does not offset gdp and welfare losses because of the time profile of the general equilibrium effects when considering instead compensation based on gdp losses the effectiveness of monetary transfers proves to be drastically limited by general equilibrium effects in opened economies the main channels of this efficiency gap are investigated and its magnitude proves to be conditional upon strategic and policy choices of the middle east this leads us to suggest that other means than direct monetary compensating transfers should be discussed to engage the middle east in climate policies

employment adjustment in uk manufacturing this analysis differs from previous studies of labor demand in its explicit inclusion of the costs to the firm of adju sting its workforce these costs include institutional factors such a s employment protection legislation and unions and market factors su ch as the degree of slack in the labor market two questions are addr essed what is the quantitative impact of these forces and does their inclusion improve the fit of a labor demand function the results sh owed these factors to have a strong influence on the rate of hiring f iring and to improve significantly on conventional labor demand funct ions copyright 1988 by royal economic society

redundancies labour turnover and employment contraction in the recession a regional analysis martin r l 1984 redundancies labour turnover and employment contraction in the recession a regional analysis reg studies 18 445 458 the rapid decline of the british economy during the current recession has generated considerable interest in the geography of employment contraction and the regional incidence of redundancy in this paper it is argued that regional variations in the impact of redundancy need to be viewed in relation to the other labour turnover flows that contribute to net employment loss estimates of gross labour turnover flows suggest that there have been wide differences amongst the regions in the proportion of total discharges accounted for by redundancies furthermore there is evidence that regional specific rates of redundancy are related to 1 the pace of decline in a region 2 the average rate of national job turnover in the region and 3 the extent to which such natural turnover declines as employment opportunities diminish and unemployment rises the implication is

migration and imperfect labor markets theory and cross country evidence from denmark germany and the uk we investigate the labor market effects of immigration in denmark germany and the uk three countries which are characterized by considerable differences in labor market institutions and welfare states institutions such as collective bargaining minimum wages employment protection and unemployment benefits affect the way in which wages respond to labor supply shocks and hence the labor market effects of immigration we employ a wage setting approach which assumes that wages decline with the unemployment rate albeit imperfectly we find that the wage and employment effects of immigration depend on wage flexibility and the composition of the labor supply shock in germany immigration involves only moderate wage but large unemployment effects since immigrants are concentrated in labor market segments with low wage flexibility the reverse is true for the uk and denmark

consequences of seniority wages on the employment structure the author examines seniority wage profiles in german establishments to discern hiring patterns with respect to age and sex using the country s linked employer employee dataset liab over the per

the cyclical sensitivity of regional employment and unemployment differentials gordon i r 1985 the cyclical sensitivity of regional employment and unemployment differentials reg studies 19 95 110 this paper examines inter regional variations in the cyclical sensitivity of employment and unemployment in the uk over the past thirty years it shows that the patterns for employment and for unemployment are quite different the cyclical sensitivity of unemployment is greatest in the high unemployment regions while that for employment is greatest in the more industrial regions it is argued that the primary reason for differences in the sensitivity of unemployment is not demand side factors but cyclical variations in labour mobility between regions lower mobility in periods of high unemployment reduces the effectiveness of inter regional supply adjustments and increases the variance of unemployment rates

optimal environmental taxes and standards implications of the materials balance abstract this paper investigates the implications of the materials balance for optimal environmental policy we find that neglecting the materials emissions relationship as is common in models of optimal environmental regulation implies biases whose sign depends on the regulatory instrument chosen when emissions are regulated through an emission tax the seemingly optimal tax is too high when regulation proceeds through the use of an emission standard the seemingly optimal standard is too lax

wage rigidity and unemployment in oecd countries real wage rigidity is often blamed for causing unemployment in the wake of adverse real shocks like changes in productivity or the terms of trade likewise nominal wage rigidity is blamed for causing unemployment in the wake of adverse nominal shocks like falls in nominal demand 1 however there has been relatively little systematic discussion of how these concepts should be defined some authors e g sachs 1979 have defined real wage rigidity as the opposite of nominal wage rigidity with the us nominally rigid and europe really rigid 2 the rigidity of european real wages has then been used to explain why europe has experienced a greater increase in unemployment since 1973 than the us but in this discussion real wage rigidity has not been measured in a way which would in fact predict how much unemployment would result from a given real shock the discussion has focused on the degree of nominal inertia in the system but the unemployment cost of real shocks does not depend primarily on the degree of nominal inertia but rather on the effect of unemployment in the phillips curve

job loss and the regions how important is redundancy meager n 1984 job loss and the regions how important is redundancy reg studies 18 459 467 the paper argues that the common emphasis when comparing job losses between regions or industries etc on net employment decline and on redundancy as the major component of it may be misplaced and may conceal important differences between the regions or industries compared the argument is illustrated with data from a local labour market motherwell and with official data on the british regions it is shown in particular that when considered as a component of gross employment change redundancy may not dominate job loss future work should therefore concentrate to a greater extent on gross changes and on non redundancy methods of job loss

capital accumulation and unemployment a tale of two continents in contrast to much recent work regarding the causes of european unemployment in this paper we emphasize the importance of capital accumulation but unlike the few previous studies which have examined the relationship between capital accumulation and unemployment we argue that what matters for the evolution of employment and the unemployment rate is not the absolute growth rate of a country s capital stock but its evolution relative to other countries capital stock the empirical validity of the above statement is demonstrated for almost all oecd countries using quarterly time series data for the period 1961 1995 more detailed evidence is also presented for germany japan and the united kingdom

margins concentration unions and the business cycle theory and evidence for britain abstract a number of recent studies have examined the cyclical relationship between price cost margins concentration and unions u s data has concluded that unions reduce margins margins vary over the cycle and concentration unionisation and the cycle interact in their effect on margins however there is almost no theory to account for these results we propose a simple theory that assumes only that there is overhead labour present at the firm this produces theoretical predictions that can explain these results and discriminate between existing theories we present results of our own using u k panel data and show similar findings to the u s

mobility costs frictional unemployment and efficiency with imperfect job information flows it is plausible that the distribution of job offerings becomes more attractive when there are more vacancies and more unemployed with word of mouth communication this condition is derived given this condition steady state equilibrium is not efficient with welfare increased by the introduction of unemployment compensation even though all agents are risk neutral in this way workers become more selective in the jobs they accept

hysteresis and the earnings of immigrants in the united states labour market the paper analyses the role of hysteresis in explaining the slow wage convergence between certain immigrant groups and native workers using the 1990 integrated public use microdata samples ipums the analysis reveals that past earnings history in the country of origin has a relatively smaller effect on post migration earnings when compared to past earnings history in the us in addition the paper suggests that the earnings history in the country of origin is more productive in the us labour market for immigrants from advanced economies as compared to those from less developed countries in particular we find that us labour market does not value the past earnings history of mexican immigrants as high as that of other ethnic groups with similar socioeconomic characteristics across successive cohorts

wage setting and the tax system theory and evidence for the united kingdom abstract this paper analyses the effects of a non linear tax system on wage bargaining the main conclusions are an increase in the marginal income or payroll tax rate reduces the pre tax wage in the isoelastic case an increase in the average tax rate increases the pre tax wage by more than the tax increase and a measure of the progressivity of the tax system residual income progression is a sufficient measure of the effect of the tax system on wage pressure empirical evidence is presented to support these propositions and the predictions of the model regarding the effect of recent changes to the u k tax system on the distribution of earnings discussed

the efficient estimation of econometric models with rational expectations the efficient estimation of econometric models with rational expectations by the substitution method usually entails the use of a non linear simultaneous equations estimator and hence is not very attractive computationally it is shown that for a wide class of problems efficient estimates can also be obtained with standard estimation methods if instead an errors in variables approach is used for many other problems although not providing fully efficient estimates because rationality is not imposed the errors in variables method will still have a strong appeal because otherwise it uses all of the structural information in the model unlike the substitution method when an incomplete information set is used it guarantees consistent estimates and it is easy to compute

an investigation into the power of insiders in wage determination abstract this paper is concerned with the role of insider forces in wage determination various union and non union models of wage behaviour are considered and they imply that wages are a convex combination of internal and external factors certain union models also imply a degree of hysteresis data on fourteen british production industries reveal that i insider forces are important ii their importance is directly related to both union power and the degree of monopoly in the product market iii the state of the aggregate labour market is also important and iv hysteresis effects arising from insider power are only significant in a small minority of sectors

justifying the incorporation of the materials balance principle into frontier based eco efficiency models frontier based models are an alternative to traditional eco efficiency ratio indicators this paper considers two different types environmentally adjusted production efficiency models and frontier eco efficiency models and tries to find justification for incorporating the materials balance principle mbp in them similar importance is attached to the economic and environmental outcomes of a production process like economic outcomes can be derived from inputs and outputs and respective prices some cases allow for deriving environmental outcomes from the production function with the mbp after an overview of attempts to incorporate environmental issues in production efficiency models and some reflections why mbp has been neglected in environmental economics and production efficiency analysis the paper gives basic principles to incorporate the mbp in conventional production efficiency methods and shows how this adjustment leads to a more diversified diagnosis of eco efficiency finally potentialities and bottlenecks are discussed exploiting the mbp in production efficiency and eco efficiency analysis will facilitate more pro active eco efficiency research

labour turnover in uk manufacturing a model of quits is constructed and combined with a labour demand function to produce a model of layoffs these are combined to provide an explanation of separations the main feature of this is the explicit incorporation of the interactions between quits and layoffs a linear approximation and a structural form are estimated on uk manufacturing data for 1965 82 it is shown that the most important determinant of separations is the state of demand in the labour market with some structural factors having a minor role to play