insuring banks against liquidity shocks the role of deposit insurance and lending of last resort it has long been recognized that banks simultaneous provision of monitoring and liquidity services is advantageous but leaves them susceptible to liquidity shocks that may culminate in a system failure because a system failure is costly this provides a rationale for adopting arrangements including a lender of last resort and deposit insurance di to insure banks against liquidity shocks these arrangements have proven themselves very successful but they have also been the source of problems researchers have identified some of the main sources of these problems and have suggested ways to improve the design of these arrangements but there are still many issues that remain unaddressed this paper reviews the literature on the two arrangements that most countries have adopted to insure banks against liquidity shocks a lender of last resort and di and compares the design of these arrangements across countries the paper ends with a brief summary of the key lessons learned about the design of these arrangements and the issues related to them that remain unaddressed copyright blackwell publishers ltd 2006

deposit insurance and moral hazard problem the case of turkish banking system we investigate the effect of full deposit insurance introduced in 1994 on the financial performance of turkish commercial banks we construct a model under reasonable assumptions with deposit insurance where banks undertake excessive risk moral hazard risk empirical investigation using experimental design approach supports our moral hazard hypothesis our findings indicate that banks subject to the moral hazard behaviour show significant increases in foreign exchange position risk and deterioration in capital adequacy relative to their benchmark after introduction of full deposit insurance system we relate this excessive risk taking to the moral hazard behaviour by commercial banks the research results indicate that complete deposit insurance system distorts the incentive structure of commercial banks and thus prevents proper functioning of market discipline mechanism and leads to the taking excessive risk taking

churn versus diversion in antitrust an illustrative model an important question in horizontal merger analysis is what share of a firm s lost output from a unilateral price increase will divert to its merger partner this diversion ratio is often estimated using data on customer switching from a firm to its rivals churn we use a tractable oligopoly model to investigate the potential biases of such estimates depending on what caused the churn shifts in quality or marginal cost of the firm or of a rival or demand side shifts due to changed circumstances or learning about product attributes with demand side shifts churn can be greater between more distant competitors

measures of fit for rational expectations models this survey provides a detailed description of some of the recent theoretical and empirical literature on rational expectations econometrics the survey pays special attention to non stationarity of the data and to the various methods for evaluating rational expectations models that have been developed as alternatives to the classical statistical approach of testing overidentifying restrictions these methods have become very popular and widely used in empirical research we provide an illustration using danish stock market data and we summarize the many results obtained recently using these measures in areas as diverse as stock prices the term structure of interest rates exchange rates consumption and saving the balance of payments tax smoothing hyperinflation and linear quadratic adjustment cost models for inventories labour demand and money demand

anomalies in intertemporal choice evidence and an interpretation research on decision making under uncertainly has been strongly influenced by the documentation of numerous expected utility eu anomalies behaviors that violate the expected utility axioms the relative lack of progress on the closely related topic of intertemporal choice is partly due to the absence of an analogous set of discounted utility du anomalies we enumerate a set of du anomalies analogous to the eu anomalies and propose a model that accounts for the anomalies as well as other intertemporal choice phenomena incompatible with du we discuss implications for savings behavior estimation of discount rates and choice framing effects

pass through rates and the price effects of mergers abstract we investigate the relationship in bertrand oligopoly between the price effects of mergers absent synergies and the rates at which merger synergies are passed through to consumers in the form of lower prices we find that the demand conditions that cause a merger to result in large price increases absent synergies also cause the pass through rate to be high the low estimated pass through rate and the relatively large predicted merger effect thus likely were inconsistent in an important u s merger case

rents and land prices in japan a panel cointegration approach the japanese farmland market is strongly regulated although partial deregulation and decentralization are evident this paper examines the relationship between farmland rents and prices in japan using recent panel cointegration methods which admit structural breaks results show the presence of a cointegrating relationship with significant breaks that increased the rent price ratio by 9 in 1967 and by 15 in 1980 prices cause rents which supports an institutional rent formation hypothesis and the farmland market is inefficient

behaviors and housing inertia are key factors in determining the consequences of a shock in transportation costs this paper investigates the consequences of a sudden increase in transportation costs when household behaviors and building inertia are accounted for a theoretical framework is proposed capturing the interactions between behaviors transportation costs and urban structure numerical simulations show that changes in households and landowners choices reduce significantly the long term adverse effects of a shock in transportation costs indeed the shock translates over the long run into a more concentrated housing that limits households utility losses and maintains landowners income but because of building inertia the shock leads first to a long transition during which the adjustment is constrained by a suboptimal housing supply structure then households support larger losses than in the final stage though lower than with no behavior adjustment and landowners experience a large decrease in their aggregate income and an important redistribution of wealth thus behaviors and building inertia are key factors in determining the vulnerability to transportation price variability and to the introduction of climate policies our policy conclusions are that i if a long term increase in transportation costs is unavoidable because of climate change or resource scarcity a smooth change prevents to some extent the negative transition effects and ii fast growing cities of the developing world can reduce their future vulnerability to shocks in transportation costs through the implementation of policies that limit urban sprawl

optimal sequential investment when capital is not readily reversible when investment opportunities arrive one at a time and are reviewed sequentially a corporation s optimal policy differs from a standard net present value rule if the corporation exercises control over an industry state variable and control is costly the first condition presupposes a degree of market power for the firm the second occurs if corporate investment decisions are imperfectly reversible to address the problem of optimal investment in this context a firm s investment decisions are modeled as a markov reward process the causes of economic irreversibility are discussed and general propositions concerning the optimal investment policy are derived these propositions are then applied to the optimization of an exploration program by an oligopolistic firm a price leader under particular demand and distributional assumptions solutions for the optimal decision rule and the value of the exploration program are obtained and their properties examined current investment may affect future opportunities by creating growth opportunities as defined by myers 16 see also spence 25 or by reducing the value of an existing opportunity set despite the known potential for these interactions capital budgeting techniques such as net present valuation scenario planning and monte carlo simulation focus exclusively on the stand alone value of an investment the capacity for modeling interactions is present in the multiperiod models of merton 16 bogue and roll 5 and others the absence of applications however is evidence that actual economic interactions between current and future opportunities are not well understood this paper develops a model of a firm facing a sequence of interdependent growth opportunities opportunities have positive net present values because the firm exercises market power in its product market current investment changes the value of future opportunities through its effect on a product market variable the model is used to examine the impact of demand industry structure and technology on optimal investment rules and on the value of aggregate growth

real options with ex post division of the surplus abstract this paper examines a real option model where two vertically related firms are involved in a specific investment project that is subject to an uncertain payoff while ex post bargaining between a seller and a buyer leads to underinvestment by the seller in a standard model where timing of the seller s investment is exogenous we show that this need not be the case when the seller s timing of investment is endogenous however bargaining with a buyer leads to excessive waiting more severe holdup and higher uncertainty will lead to vertical integration of activities to avoid timing inefficiencies

an empirical examination of the timing of land conversions in the presence of farmland preservation programs using a panel of parcel level data we estimate a hazard model and find strong evidence that the mere existence of an option to preserve farmland delays decisions to convert farmland to developed uses by about six years a reduction in median conversion time of 12 to 43 depending on parcel size where such delays allow local governments to improve infrastructure or implement stricter growth control measures benefits of a preservation option may be even more long term also increases in the variance of returns to development tended to slow conversion for parcels with all but the highest lot capacities copyright 2008 oxford university press

infrastructure financing and urban development abstract historically additions to public infrastructure necessitated by urban growth have been financed under a cost sharing approach in the last several decades however financing of growth has increasingly relied on land use exactions where new residents pay for the cost of incremental infrastructure despite the emergence of a formal growth control literature there has been virtually no formal analysis of the connection between infrastructure financing and urban development to provide such an analysis this paper investigates three different schemes for financing incremental infrastructure within an urban growth model the analysis compares an impact fee scheme to two types of cost sharing schemes deriving the effects on urban growth and land values of switching to the impact fee scheme the efficient financing scheme is also identified

demand estimation and merger simulations for drugs logits v aids abstract we use adhd drugs sales data from 2000 2003 and compare estimates of elasticities and merger simulations from three different demand models models include logit random coefficients logit and conditional aids demand model with multistage budgeting the magnitude of cross price elasticities is larger in the third model in comparison to the first two and some of the cross price elasticities are estimated to be negative hypothetical merger simulations show larger price effects for the multistage aids model in comparison to the discrete choice models

the impact of decoupled payments on u s cropland values an extensive literature has shown that various farm programs may influence the value of farmland but other studies have not examined the cropland price effects of direct or decoupled payments separate from countercyclical payments this study uses nationally representative confidential field level panel data with farmer reported per acre land values we analyze the impact of decoupled and other farm program payments on farmland values using a fixed effects model and controlling for various factors that influence farmland values we find that an additional dollar of decoupled payments has a large and statistically significant impact on farmland values of about 18 per acre these results are comparable with similar studies undertaken in europe

house prices development costs and the value of waiting abstract this paper demonstrates that new house prices can exceed direct development costs by considerable margins in competitive housing markets with finite price elasticities of demand and no restrictive land use regulation the premium reflects the value of the option to delay developing the marginal piece of undeveloped land competition amongst landowners reduces the option value relative to the standard open city framework but as long as undeveloped land is heterogeneous does not reduce it to zero calibrating a special case of the model to us data suggests that the premium is economically significant in addition to proving that prices can exceed costs without regulation this paper shows that the relationship between volatility and the rate of investment is more complicated than previously thought

moving toward risk based deposit insurance premiums in the european union the case of spain this article provides a scenario based analysis of how the european union proposal for a new funding model for deposit insurance systems diss would affect the spanish banking sector we examine the risk profiles of commercial banks savings banks and credit cooperatives over the period 2007 to 2011 and compare the contributions to the deposit insurance fund dif under the current flat rate regime with those that would have occurred under the new risk sensitive system we find that a risk based scheme could provide an incentive for sound management by reducing the premiums for credit institutions with better risk profiles we also conclude that the proposed reform may help to mitigate the moral hazard associated with larger credit institutions

transaction costs and the present value puzzle of farmland prices 1 introduction farmland is by far the dominant asset in the u s agricultural sector s balance sheet accounting for about two thirds of the value of all farm assets usda various years the value of u s farmland was estimated at 593 billion on december 31 1994 or roughly 10 of total market capitalization for firms in the sp clark fulton and scott 1993 tegene and kuchler 1993 this is a puzzling result because the cdr pvm has been widely accepted and generally used for land appraisal purposes beyond this however there is surprisingly little consensus regarding the determinants of farmland prices pope et al 1979 robison and koenig 1992 stare 1995 a major reason for this lack of consensus may be the heterogeneity of the data sets used for empirical analysis different studies use different levels of aggregation different time periods and different land value and rent series hanson and myers 1995 for example use country level data whereas tegene and kuchler 1993 use regional data and just and miranowski 1993 use state level data hanson and myers 1995 use data from 1910 to 1990 shiha and chavas 1995 use data from 1949 to 1990 and brown and brown 1984 use data from 1968 to 1981 falk 1991 examines farmland values and gross cash rents whereas hanson and myers 1995 examine farm real estate values and residual returns to farm real estate another possible explanation for the lack of consensus about farmland pricing and the focus of the present study is the presence of market frictions our motivation for exploring the role that market frictions might play in determining farmland prices is both theoretical and empirical on the theoretical level market frictions drive a wedge between the price at which outsiders wish to buy land and that at which farmers wish to sell it the market price can be anywhere within this wedge and thus can easily deviate from its frictionless present value one can interpret this wedge as a band of inaction delta sup l delta supu inside which farmers neither buy nor sell land even in the face of changing expected returns the band is centered on the price that would prevail in the absence of transaction costs and its width is determined by the size of these costs on the empirical level a review of the literature reveals that the frictionless market assumption is not a realistic representation of how farmland is actually traded although the costs associated with trading many financial assets are small costs incurred in transferring ownership of farmland typically exceed 7 5 of the purchase price to explore the role of market frictions we use the pvm recently used by lence and miller 1999 which explicitly incorporates proportional transaction costs

optimal land development decisions abstract this research models the development decision when net rents are growing geometrically and uncertainly and capital intensity is variable we derive simple rules for the optimal timing of land development projects based on the commonly used internal rate of return and net present value criteria we show that even under certainty projects are optimally delayed beyond the point where net present value becomes nonnegative if expected cash flows are growing the ability to vary capital intensity also raises the specter of perverse responses where increases in interest rates accelerate investment decisions the positive responses occur when growth rates are high or uncertainty is high

the political economy of farmland ownership regulations and land prices one of the most ubiquitous forms of agricultural regulation is a restriction on farmland ownership one canadian example of a farmland ownership restriction is the saskatchewan farm security act fsa passed in 1974 the purpose of this article is to explain using a political economy framework why the fsa was implemented and to estimate the effect of the fsa on saskatchewan farmland values a present value pv model is used to estimate the relationship between land values rents and the regulation the hausman endogeneity test reveals that the regulation variable is endogenous with the land price the sign of the regulation variable is negative which fits with the theory i e the more stringent the regulation the lower the land value we estimate that the regulation lowered saskatchewan farmland prices by an average of 4 to 34 us acre depending on whether ordinary least squares ols or two stage least squares tsls is employed in the estimation over the period of 1974 2001

theories of bank behavior under capital regulation abstract this paper reviews academic studies of bank capital regulation in an effort to evaluate the intellectual foundation for the imposition of the basel i and basel ii systems of risk based capital requirements the theoretical literature yields general agreement about the immediate effects of capital requirements on bank lending and loan rates and the longer term impacts on bank ratios of equity to total or risk adjusted assets this literature produces highly mixed predictions however regarding the effects of capital regulation on asset risk and overall safety and soundness for the banking system as a whole thus the intellectual foundation for the present capital regulation regime is not particularly strong the mixed conclusions in the academic literature on banking certainly do not provide unqualified support for moving to an even more stringent and costly system of capital requirements these widely ambiguous results do suggest however that assessing the implications of capital regulation for balance sheet risk and monitoring effort in diverse banking systems is an important agenda for future theoretical research in the banking area

a unified presentation of competition analysis in two sided markets the goal of this paper is to present quantitative tools to manage competition policy analysis in two sided platforms based on a common framework for transaction and non transaction platforms we explore tools for relevant market definition critical loss analysis and a small but significant non transitory increase in price ssnip test unilateral effects indicators upward pricing pressure upp and gross upward pricing pressure index guppi and tests for exclusionary practices we review dispersed results in the literature and fill the gaps where appropriate we highlight the required changes from the usual one sided market framework and tools while discussions of antitrust tools can be found in specialized forums devoted to advances in competition policy analysis we organize the material in an integrated framework

the inconsistency of land values land rents and capitalization formulas this paper examines relationships that exist between farm income land values and capital asset pricing theory using two commonly referenced data sets it is shown that land prices and land rents do not have the same time series representations a necessary condition for the simple capital asset pricing theory to hold this suggests that a fundamental rethinking of the way in which land prices are viewed and modeled is needed more complex models that allow for rational bubbles risk aversion and future shifts in government policy or commodity prices may be required

the effect of direct to consumer television advertising on the timing of treatment i introduction in august 1997 the food and drug administration fda relaxed the rules governing television advertising of prescription pharmaceutical products before that time broadcast ads were permitted only to mention either the name of a drug or a disease against which a drug was effective but not both after august 1997 pharmaceuticals were allowed to mention both the disease and the drug brand name as long a a brief list of side effects was mentioned and 1 800 number or world wide web site was provided with more detailed information spending for direct to consumer advertising dtca for prescription drugs went from 985 million in 1996 to approximately 4 2 billion for 2005 donohue cevasco and rosenthal 2007 this has led to a great deal of debate in the medical profession and among health care insurer and managed care organizations and an ongoing review of advertising rules by the fda however very little is actually known about the effects of dtca for the efficient allocation o prescription drugs we will examine how dtca affects physician prescribing patterns and courses of care for patients suffering from a representative chronic condition osteoarthritis oa this condition is of special significance as one of the major products in this area merck s vioxx cyclooxygenase 2 cox 2 inhibitor was forced to withdraw from the market in october 2004 due to side effects on patients with heart conditions the side effects of vioxx have caused considerable criticism of merck s advertising strategy for vioxx see e g editorials from the new england journal of medicine mukherjee nissen and topol 2001 topol 2004 the primary goal of this paper was to determine what effect local and national television advertising on behalf of the two main cox 2 inhibitors had on the treatment decisions that patients made in collaboration with their physicians in particular we will examine the impact of dtca on the time patients wait after diagnosis with oa and before initiating treatment with a cox 2 inhibitor the paper will proceed by first reviewing the literature on dtca in section ii section iii will present a theoretical model of optimal delay to treatment section iv will present details of the data and empirical model we implement empirical results are presented in section v and section vi concludes with a discussion about future research ii background and literature a advertising for cox 2 inhibitors historically pharmaceutical advertising was done largely through detailing promotion directly from the manufacturer to the physician either through visits by representatives or contacts by pharmacists or through advertisements in professional journals since the mid 1980s however drug companies in the united states have increasingly turned their marketing strategies directly toward the consumer this advertising largely takes place through television media and in newspapers this change in advertising approach has its share of both critics and advocates the pharmaceutical industry in the united states is large accounting for more than 132 billion in retail sales in 2000 alone nihcm 2001 in 2000 celebrex celecoxib the leading cox 2 inhibitor had sales of approximately 2 6 billion pharmacia has setback for parecoxib 2001 while vioxx rofecoxib sold more than 1 2 billion in the first half of 2000 knight ridder news 2001 in support of vioxx merck spent almost 161 million in dtca in 2000 schumann 2001 which was the most spent on dtca for any prescription pharmaceutical making it the 39th most advertised brand of any kind in 2000 top brands in network primetime 2000 2001 over the same time periods pharmacia and pfizer jointly spent 78 million in dtca supporting celebrex we have chosen to examine the role of dtca in the context of the market for cox 2 inhibitors during the period spanned by our data 1999 2002 the two available cox 2 inhibitors were vioxx and celebrex

spatial growth and redevelopment with perfect foresight and durable housing abstract in this paper i present a theoretical model of the spatial growth of an urban area with durable housing i combine several assumptions that typically complicate the analysis i housing developers have perfect foresight ii the initial development and many waves of redevelopment are considered in each developer s plan and iii the closed city assumption is made so that the time path of population is exogenous and that of consumer utility is endogenous i still obtain explicit solutions for the spatial pattern of urban growth and for the timing of the initial residential development and each successive redevelopment at each distance from the urban center i compare perfect foresight growth to growth with static expectations and i examine the comparative statics of both

hedonic pricing with redevelopment options a new approach to estimating depreciation effects abstract the standard hedonic model of durable assets is a special case of a more general model that contains two additive terms 1 use value of the existing hedonic vector and 2 the value of the option to reconfigure hedonic characteristics one empirical implication is that the two parts of value are related e g use value increases with interior area whereas option value decreases with intensity the ratio of structure value divided by land value increases in building age reduce use value but increase option value data from greenwich connecticut indicate that intensity has the expected negative effect coefficients on building age are shown to be better measures of depreciation when intensity variables are included in the regression

interest rates irreversibility and backward bending investment this paper studies the effect of interest rates on investment in an environment where firms make irreversible investments with uncertain pay offs in this setting changes in the interest rate affect both the cost of capital and the cost of delaying investment to acquire information these two forces combine to generate an aggregate investment demand curve that is a backward bending function of the interest rate at low rates increasing the interest rate raises investment by increasing the cost of delay how does an increase in interest rates affect capital investment by firms the answer to this question has important implications for monetary and fiscal policies the neoclassical theory of investment gives a simple answer increasing the interest rate reduces investment by raising the cost of capital haavelmo 1960 jorgenson 1963 this paper shows that the answer to this question is different when firms make irreversible investments with uncertain pay offs in this environment investment is a backward bending function of the interest rate to see the intuition consider a pharmaceutical company deciding how quickly to proceed with investments in operations to produce new drugs the firm is uncertain about drugs that will be successful and can acquire further information via rd bertola and caballero 1994 dixit and pindyck 1994 abel and eberly 1996 in the model analysed here expected profits grow at a rate g 0 when firms delay investment because the information acquired by delay reduces the probability of investing in an unsuccessful venture profits earned in subsequent periods are discounted at the interest rate r therefore firms invest immediately only if the expected profit from investment is positive and the expected growth in profits from delaying g is less than the interest rate the backward bending shape of the aggregate investment demand curve i r arises from this optimality condition if r is low g is likely to exceed r compelling many firms to delay investment rather than investing

option valuation of claims on real assets the case of offshore petroleum leases this paper extends financial option theory by developing a methodology for the valuation of claims on a real asset an offshore petroleum lease several theoretical and practical problems not present in applying option pricing theory to financial assets are addressed most importantly we show the necessity of combining option pricing techniques with a model of equilibrium in the market for the underlying asset petroleum reserves the advantages of this approach over conventional discounted cash flow techniques are emphasized the methodological development provides important insights for both company behavior and government policy promising empirical results are reported

the valuation of fdic deposit insurance using option pricing estimates when congress set the premium rate for fdic deposit insurance in the banking act of 1935 which authorized a permanent federal insurance system neither experience nor theory could offer much guidance regarding an appropriate fee structure although rates have since been periodically revised the fdic has yet to attempt to set the insurance rate at a ifair level that is a level equal to administrative costs plus the ex ante value of the insurance such a premium is the rate that would be charged by competitive private insurers however7 the garn st germain act of 1982 directed the fdic to consider the feasibility of a risk based premium structure in response the fdic has suggested a trial system in which each insured bank will be placed in one of three risk classes based on credit and interest rate risk relative to capital and a premium rate will be assigned to each group those rates will be determined in part by the loss experience of the entire banking system fdic 1983 another approach to the determination of the appropriate insurance premium has been offered by merton 1977 who suggested using the analogous relationship between deposit guarantees and put options to value fdic insurance in this paper we follow merton s suggestion and calculate bank specific estimates of the proper premium for deposit insurance for the banks in our sample we find that fdic rates greatly exceed estimates of the fair value of the insurance derived from the blackscholes 1972 option pricing model

environmental policies and agricultural land values evidence from the dutch nutrient quota system the paper analyzes the impact of the phosphate based animal production rights on agricultural land values in the netherlands we claim that the existence of mandatory production control program with regional restriction on trading causes a disproportional increase in land prices in the surplus region where the quota is binding relative to the deficit region where the quota is not binding and that the increase in the cost of environmental compliance should generate an eroding effect on the existing gap in land prices the parameters of an inverse land demand model estimated with panel data support both hypotheses

the stochastic city abstract this paper analyzes a simple model of an urban area with growth and uncertainty household income rents and prices for land follow stochastic processes even though investors are risk neutral uncertainty affects both land rents and land prices in equilibrium because the conversion of land from agricultural to urban use is irreversible growth on the other hand affects urban and agricultural land prices but not the level of rents we show that uncertainty i delays the conversion of land from agricultural to urban use ii imparts an option value to agricultural land iii causes land at the boundary to sell for more than its opportunity cost in other uses and iv reduces equilibrium city size

switching to perennial energy crops under uncertainty and costly reversibility we study a farmer s decision to convert traditional cropland into land for growing dedicated energy crops taking into account sunk conversion costs and uncertainties in crop returns the optimal decision rules differ significantly from the expected net present value rule which ignores uncertainties and from real options models that allow only one way conversion into energy crops these models also predict drastically different patterns of land conversions into and out of energy crops over time using corn soybean rotation and switchgrass as examples we show that the model predictions are sensitive to assumptions about stochastic processes of the returns government policies might have unintended consequences subsidizing conversion costs into switchgrass may not much affect proportions of land in switchgrass in the long run

insolvency in agriculture bad managers or the common agricultural policy bad management is often blamed for the failure of firms yet an empirical investigation of the annual rate of insolvency in agriculture and horticulture in england and wales revealed a relationship with the price of land the rate of insolvency was negatively related to the current price of land but the lag structure estimated suggests that the rate of insolvency could be positively related to the land price two years previously this result is in accordance with a theoretical model which shows that the optimal gearing strategy under rising land prices induces farmers to increase their indebtedness since common agricultural policy price support has become capitalized into land prices this suggests that some of the insolvency in agriculture and horticulture was the result of previous agricultural policy the results do however underline farm management advice that farmers should beware of relying on capital gains to remain in business

time to build option value and investment decisions abstract investment decisions and outlays are often made sequentially for example the rate at which construction proceeds is usually flexible and can be adjusted with the arrival of new information traditional discounted cash flow methods which treat the pattern of investment as fixed ignore this flexibility and understate the value of the project this paper uses contingent claims analysis to derive optimal decision rules and to value such investments we determine the effects of time to build opportunity cost and uncertainty on the investment decision for reasonable parameter values we show how a simple npv rule can lead to gross errors

deposit insurance and wealth effects the value of being too big to fail this paper investigates the effect on bank equity values of the comptroller of the currency s announcement that some banks were too big to fail and that for those banks total deposit insurance would be provided using an event study methodology we find positive wealth effects accruing to tbtf banks with corresponding negative effects accruing to non included banks we demonstrate that the magnitude of these effects differed with bank solvency and size we also show that the policy to which the market reacted was that suggested by the wall street journal and not that actually intended by the comptroller the role of deposit insurance has become a topic of increasing debate advocates argue that by removing the incentive to run deposit insurance protects individual financial institutions from instability in the intermediation process thereby providing stability to the financial system as a whole 1 the recent rise in bank failures and the concomitant crises in the s l industry however demonstrate that this stability is not guaranteed moreover critics note that deposit insurance may introduce incentive problems and wealth effects into the financial system both of which can impede the effective functioning of any deposit insurance system these problems have prompted concern about the structure of the current deposit insurance system and have led to numerous proposals regarding its restructuring 2 this paper investigates one aspect of this debate by analyzing the effect on bank equity values of the policy decision to insure completely some banks but not others specifically in september 1984 the comptroller of the currency testified before congress that some banks were simply too big to fail tbtf and that for those banks total deposit insurance would be provided while not explicitly naming the banks the comptroller admitted that this policy would apply to the eleven largest banks using an event study methodology we analyze

a direct test of hyperbolic discounting using market asset data a b s t r a c t this paper introduces a framework that generalizes exponential discounting in a net present value model by including a quasi hyperbolic discount parameter in the asset valuation equation using observed market asset data a statistically significant quasi hyperbolic parameter is obtained thus rejecting exponential discounting

formally testing the present value model of farmland prices this paper applies recent statistical developments in the study of stock market price movements to study the plausibility of the constant expected returns version of the present value model as an explanation of farmland prices using iowa farmland price and rent data over the 1921 86 sample period formal test results indicate that although farmland price and rent movements are highly correlated price movements are not consistent with the implications of this model there appear to be persistent predictable excess positive and or negative returns in the iowa farmland market

evaluating natural resource investments notwithstanding impressive advances in the theory of finance over the past 2 decades practical procedures for capital budgeting have evolved only slowly the standard technique which has remained unchanged in essentials since it was originally proposed see dean 1951 bierman and smidt 1960 derives from a simple adaptation of the fisher 1907 model of valuation under certainty under this technique expected cash flows from an investment project are discounted at a rate deemed appropriate to their risk and the resulting present value is compared with the cost of the project this standard textbook technique reflects modern theoretical developments only insofar as estimates of the discount rate may be obtained from crude application of single period asset pricing theory but see brennan 1973 bogue and roll 1974 turnbull 1977 constantinides 1978 the inadequacy of this approach to capital budgeting is widely acknowledged although not widely discussed its obvious deficiency is its the evaluation of mining and other natural resource projects is made particularly difficult by the high degree of uncertainty attaching to output prices it is shown that the techniques of continuous time arbitrage and stochastic control theory may be used not only to value such projects but also to determine the optimal policies for developing managing and abandoning them the approach may be adapted to a wide variety of contexts outside the natural resource sector where uncertainty about future project revenues is a paramount concern

the effects of potential land development on agricultural land prices abstract we conduct a national scale analysis of the determinants of agricultural land values the theoretical basis for the study is a spatial city model with stochastic returns to future land development the empirical model of agricultural land prices is estimated with a cross section on approximately three thousand counties in the contiguous us the results provide evidence that option values associated with irreversible and uncertain land development are capitalized into current farmland values for each county we decompose the current agricultural land value into components measuring rents from agricultural production and rents from future land development

boom bust cycles and ricardian rent north american agriculture has been characterized by many as a boom bust industry for example between 1973 and 1983 prairie farmers experienced the most prosperous period of grain farming ever known in western canada had the golden age finally arrived for prairie agriculture prosperity came to a grinding halt in the mid 1980s and in the late 1980s prairie grain farmers entered into one of the worst economic situ

house price uncertainty timing of development and vacant land prices evidence for real options in seattle abstract recent theoretical work suggests that land development exercises a real option this paper utilizes a rich data set of parcel characteristics and real property transactions for the seattle area to tests two predictions of real options with respect to land markets greater price uncertainty should delay the timing of development and raise land prices i find evidence in support of both predictions a one standard deviation increase in uncertainty lowers the likelihood of development by 11 percent and raises vacant land prices by 1 6 percent these findings suggest that developers consider their real option to future buildings when deciding to invest

mergers with differentiated products the case of the ready to eat cereal industry traditional merger analysis is difficult to implement when evaluating mergers in industries with differentiated products i discuss an alternative which consists of demand estimation and the use of a model of postmerger conduct to simulate the competitive effects of a merger i estimate a brand level demand system for ready to eat cereal using supermarket scanner data and use the estimates to 1 recover marginal costs 2 simulate postmerger price equilibria and 3 compute welfare effects under a variety of assumptions the methodology is applied to five mergers two of which occurred and for which i compare predicted to actual outcomes

options uncertainty and sunk costs an empirical analysis of land use change abstract in a real option model of land conversion incorporating return uncertainty and sunk costs optimal conversion thresholds are significantly higher than those from expected net present value models not accounting for these factors empirical tests of conversion from agriculture to forest suggest that landowners value the option to convert when making conversion decisions higher uncertainty in returns to all potential uses and lower correlation between shocks to agricultural and forest returns decreases the likelihood of conversion estimates indicate a significant impact on conversion decisions with approximations of option values ranging from 7 to 81 of the expected value of the land asset

patterns of growth in chinese cities implications of the land lease abstract a special feature of china s housing market is land use rights in the form of land leasehold contracts granted by the government we consider an equilibrium model in which a representative developer may choose to redevelop existing centrally located housing or to develop new housing at the periphery of the city we show that as the city grows the land leasehold system results in the city center being developed less intensely and more land being used on the outskirts of the city when compared to a fee simple environment thus cities in china are likely to be relatively more spread out with city centers relatively older than would be the case with fee simple ownership our model suggests that excess residential land use is about 6 percent in addition compared with the ownership case housing supply will grow more quickly in the near future but more slowly later on during the transition of the chinese economy parallel to the supply growth pattern equilibrium price grows relative slowly in the near future but more quickly later on while we focus on residential uses we believe our model can be applied to other land uses

on farmland prices and rents in japan historically the japanese farmland market has been strongly regulated although fundamental changes in policy were introduced in 1967 and 1980 this article examines the relationship between farmland prices and rents in japan for 1955 2000 using the cointegration procedure of johansen et al 2000 which admits structural breaks results show the presence of a cointegrating relationship with a significant break in 1980 there is granger causality from prices to rents which suggests that rents are determined within an institutional setting according to farmland prices the rent price elasticity is unity which supports the notion of efficiency in the farmland market

energy price shocks household location patterns and housing crises theory and implications abstract the u s housing collapse in 2007 is widely blamed for inducing a financial crisis that spread to the real economy and caused a severe and prolonged downturn this paper develops a model to investigate the role of gasoline price shocks in triggering the housing market collapse and identifies a new channel through which energy price shocks affect the financial market and the macro economy results suggest that unanticipated gasoline price shocks increase the cost of work commutes lower the value of homes away from the city center and increase foreclosure rates as homeowners either cannot afford mortgage payments amid elevated gas expenditures or seek to abandon underwater homes the model predicts that gasoline price shocks disproportionately affect suburban households that face greater exposure due to longer commutes and lower incomes empirical evidence from the 2007 08 housing collapse is presented to corroborate this theory

valuing farmland with multiple quasi fixed inputs this study examines the impact of multiple quasi fixed assets on the imputed returns to farmland the results indicate that the presence of additional quasi fixed assets causes the true shadow value of farmland to deviate from its imputed value the results also indicate that when the potential existence of multiple quasi fixed assets is explicitly modelled the shadow value of farmland approaches reported cash rental values

land price volatility in a geographically dispersed market historical evidence and theory lead to a hypothesis that land price variation increases with distance to market this hypothesis is tested with county data from five cornbelt states during the period 1969 to 1987 when price changes were unusually large our data support the hypothesis in the 70s prices increased more in the western cornbelt than in the eastern cornbelt in the 80s the western cornbelt experienced the more precipitous price declines our hypothesis explains why great plains farmers have experienced greater financial problems during times of stress than have many other farmers

the spillover effects of biofuel policy on participation in the conservation reserve program abstract this paper studies the spillover effects of rising biofuel production on participation in the conservation reserve program landowner participation decisions are modeled using a real options framework we develop a land use decision model that captures biofuel driven structural changes in market demand and derive threshold conditions that trigger participation in the program we then quantify the impacts of biofuel production on participation at both the national and state levels using monte carlo simulations the model is also used to analyze how changes in the persistence of the biofuel production boom and in the volatility of farming returns affect conservation participation decisions policy implications of the results are discussed

the dynamic effects of land title systems abstract the question of title concerns which specific individual enjoys the property rights to a particular parcel of land when there are competing claims this paper examines how the title system affects urban development in a market economy it considers two alternative title systems recording and registration both hasten the development pace relative to the social planner benchmark but the registration system is generally closer than the recording system to the benchmark the effects of the two systems on the capital land ratio depend on whether the demanded capital land density is rising or falling over time

paying a premium on your premium consolidation in the us health insurance industry we examine whether and to what extent consolidation in the u s health insurance industry is leading to higher employer sponsored insurance premiums we make use of a proprietary panel dataset of employer sponsored healthplans enrolling over 10 million americans annually between 1998 and 2006 to explore the relationship between premium growth and changes in market concentration we exploit the differential impact of a large national merger of two insurance firms across local markets to estimate the causal effect of concentration on market level premiums we estimate real premiums increased by approximately 7 percentage points in a typical market due to the rise in concentration during our study period we also find evidence that consolidation facilitates the exercise of monopsonistic power vis a vis physicians whose absolute employment and relative earnings decline in its wake

deposit insurance and subsidized recapitalizations the 2007 2009 financial crisis saw a vast expansion in deposit insurance guarantees around the world and yet our understanding of the design and consequences of deposit insurance schemes is in its infancy we provide a new rationale for the provision of deposit insurance in our model the banking sector exhibits both adverse selection and moral hazard which implies that the social benefits of bank monitoring must for incentive reasons be shared between depositors and banks consequently socially too few deposits are made in equilibrium deposit insurance or equivalently bank recapitalization corrects this market failure we find that deposit insurance should be funded not by banks or depositors but out of general taxation the optimal level of deposit insurance varies inversely with the quality of the banking system hence when the soundness of the financial sector is uncertain governments should consider supporting deposit insurance schemes and undertaking subsidized recapitalizations

uncertainty and stepwise investment we analyze the optimal investment strategy of a firm that can complete a project either in one stage at a single freely chosen time point or in incremental steps at distinct time points the presence of economies of scale gives rise to the following trade off lumpy investment has a lower total cost but stepwise investment gives more flexibility by letting the firm choose the timing individually for each stage our main question is how uncertainty in market development affects this trade off the answer is unambiguous and in contrast with a conventional real options intuition higher uncertainty makes the single stage investment more attractive relative to the more flexible stepwise investment strategy

asset value enhancement of singapore s public housing main upgrading programme mup policy a real option analysis approach the main upgrading programme mup is a major policy implemented by the singapore housing development board hdb since the 1990s this heavily subsidised policy is highly targeted in order to enhance the social and economic value of public housing in singapore it benefits hdb households residing in the older hdb housing estates in terms of both an enhanced asset value of the household s flat and a quality living environment an hdb flat owner whose precinct is selected for upgrading under the mup policy is envisaged to be holding a call option to upgrade his flat as this option to upgrade is valuable and it has an opportunity to command a higher price in the hdb resale market this paper estimates the option premiums for upgrading by utilising the intuitive and explicit numerical method solution of the binomial real option pricing model and the samuelson mckean closed form solution the embedded real option premiums under the mup policy are estimated at s 10 300 and s 2 000 for the popular three room h

what happens when demand is estimated with a misspecified model we conduct monte carlo experiments to investigate the biases of assuming a misspecified demand model we study continuous models linear log linear and aids and discrete choice models logit in the context of differentiated products and aggregate data estimating demand with the wrong model yields varying degrees of bias in estimated elasticities but the logit model can yield unbiased estimates for a certain size of the assumed market potential merger simulations confirm the key importance of market potential in logit estimation suggesting that a discrete choice model may be preferable even when the discreteness of the purchase decision is questionable

the effect of agricultural policy on farmland values the extent to which agricultural support programs have been capitalized into farmland prices has been examined in this study a present value land price model was developed which decomposes returns to the land base into its two possible sources farm production and government subsidies and allows the discount rates associated with these two income sources to vary the empirical results indicate that government payments are discounted less than marketbased returns in ontario thus government payments have been viewed as a more stable source of income to ontario farm operators during the last half century than market based returns

housing markets and vacant land the paper examines land use in an urban zone we propose a partial equilibrium model of housing markets with both vacant and built up land the existing literature precluding physical decay of housing stocks assumes building decisions to be irreversible and treats any given stock of vacant land as an exhaustible resource in contrast we argue that vacant land is built upon in finite time rather than asymptotically and reduces to a temporary phenomenon only when housing stocks depreciate the continued replacement of existing structures allows to adjust the average structural intensity even if all land is built upon

optimal investment in learning curve technologies we study optimal investment in technologies characterized by the learning curve there are two investment patterns depending on the shape of the learning curve if the learning process is slow firms invest relatively late and on a larger scale if the curve is steep firms invest earlier and on a smaller scale we further demonstrate that learning investment differs greatly from investment in technologies without learning effects learning investments generate substantial initial losses and are very sensitive to downside risk we show that the most susceptible to losses and risk are technologies with intermediate speed of learning

investment under uncertainty and time inconsistent preferences abstract while standard real options models assume that agents possess a constant rate of time preference there is substantial evidence that agents are impatient about choices in the short term but are patient when choosing between long term alternatives we extend the real options framework to model the investment timing decisions of entrepreneurs with time inconsistent preferences the impact on investment timing depends on such factors as whether entrepreneurs are sophisticated or naive in their expectations regarding their future time inconsistent behavior and whether the payoff from investment occurs all at once or over time the model is extended to the case of a competitive equilibrium

a dynamic analysis of land prices a dynamic model of land prices is developed it derives arbitrage asset prices under nonadditive dynamic preferences risk aversion and transaction costs the model nests as special cases risk neutrality time additive preferences the static capital asset pricing model capm as well as the dynamic consumption based capm the model is applied to the analysis of u s land prices for the period 1950 96 the econometric results provide evidence showing that u s land price patterns are inconsistent with risk neutrality or with the static capm model no strong evidence was found against time additive preferences the econometric findings indicate that both risk aversion and transaction costs have significant effects on land prices

adjustment costs uncertainty and the behavior of the firm this paper examines the effects of demand and cost uncertainty on a firm s investment output and pricing decisions but unlike most earlier studies in which demand and cost are simply not known at the time an output or pricing decision is made here i consider uncertainties over future demand and costs it will be seen that the effects of such uncertainties depend critically on the characteristics of the firm s adjustment costs i treat demand uncertainty in a dynamic context by letting the market demand function shift randomly but continuously through time according to a stochastic process this means that today s demand is known exactly but future demand may be larger or smaller and has a variance that increases with the time horizon likewise uncertainty over factor costs is characterized by treating those variables as stochastic processes i combine this characterization of uncertainty with a dynamic model of the firm in which some factor inputs can be adjusted freely in response to stochastic demand changes but other factors are quasi fixed in that adjustment costs are incurred when they are changed in this model the firm s price and output are random processes but we can examine the firm s behavior in expected value terms of interest is whether the presence of uncertainty should cause competitive or monopolistic firms to invest and produce more or less than they would otherwise how the effects of uncertainty are influenced by the presence of risk aversion and how the use of inventories can alter the impact of uncertainty on capacity and sales of course these questions have been addressed by others in the past among the earliest studies of demand uncertainty are those of edwin mills 1959 1962 and samuel karlin and charles carr 1962 mills examined a single period monopolistic firm that sets both output and price and showed that additive demand uncertainty i e the demand function is of the form q q p u where u is a random variable leads to a lower price if marginal cost is constant so that the firm reduces the expected loss from discarding unsold production karlin and carr confirmed for both the static case and the multiperiod case with inventory carryover that additive uncertainty tends to reduce the price and increase the output of a risk neutral firm while multiplicative uncertainty does the opposite other papers have been concerned with the way in which the error term enters the demand function additively multiplicatively or nonlinearly the implications of choosing price ex ante instead of output the implications of risk aversion and the use of inventories for example agnar sandmo 1971 and david baron 1970 showed that a risk averse competitive firm will produce less when the price is a random variable or subject to an additive error term but a riskneutral firm will not alter its production hayne leland 1972 extended these results to a monopolistic firm whose demand can depend in a general way on a random error term for example q q p u and showed that uncertainty reduces the production of a

new housing supply and the dilution of social capital this paper examines the role of local housing supply conditions for social capital investment using an instrumental variables approach and data from the social capital community benchmark survey it is documented that the positive link between homeownership and individual social capital investment is largely confined to more built up neighborhoods with more inelastic supply of new housing the empirical findings provide support for the proposition that in these localities house price capitalization provides additional incentives for homeowners to invest in social capital the findings are also largely consistent with the proposition that built up neighborhoods provide protection from inflows of newcomers that could upset a mutually beneficial equilibrium involving reciprocal cooperation however the results do not appear to be driven by selection based on inherent differences in social aptitudes or by tiebout sorting

urban growth controls transitional dynamics of development fees and growth boundaries abstract this paper investigates how development fees and urban growth boundaries affect urban development when the short run construction supply function is upward sloped i e convex development costs whereas the policies are equivalent in the traditional static model dynamic analysis reveals important differences out of the steady state in particular the development fee that is efficient in the steady state is also dynamically efficient in contrast the long run efficient urban growth boundary generates inefficiently fast development out of the steady state the results are robust with or without location rents and perfect or myopic foresight assumptions

a note on the effect of cost changes on prices in a recent article in this journal sumner 1981 took an ingenious approach to estimating the level of monopoly power in the cigarette industry he noted that differences in marginal costs exist in the industry due to varying levels of state taxes the sales prices established will satisfy the equation p i liq l mr mc where p price and q the elasticity of demand for the product in question if elasticity is a constant observing the change in marginal cost and the change in price enables one to infer the elasticity of demand perceived by the firm elasticity could then be used as a proxy for the firm s market power this technique turns out to be of very limited applicability however because it is extremely sensitive to the functional form assumed for the demand curve consider the general problem of a firm facing constant marginal costs of c in maximizing profits the firm solves

the intensity and timing of investment the case of land the authors model the decision to replace durable capital when intensity is variable decisions of this type include land redevelopment decisions where the density of residential or commercial development is a choice variable as well as capital replacement decisions where capacity is variable the authors provide a general yet simple formation of the problem using an optimal stopping framework they characterize the value of the project the timing of investment and the intensity of development the authors show that intensity interacts in important ways with timing taxes and project values the ability to vary intensity raises hurdle rents and delays development decisions copyright 1994 by american economic association

antitrust transaction costs and merger simulation with nonlinear pricing abstractthis article explores the relationship between transaction costs and antitrust it makes three points first the usual antitrust analysis can be seriously misleading as a guide to consumer or society welfare because it assumes that pricing is linear and uniform but the type of pricing endogenously depends on transaction costs including information costs second two key issues in any antitrust analysis are whether transaction costs change as a result of the action under scrutiny and regardless of whether they change how the existence of nonlinear pricing alters the usual antitrust analysis we develop a merger simulation model with nonlinear pricing to illustrate how misleading the standard analysis can be third since transaction costs influence the ability of various coalitions of consumers distributors and manufacturers to form cooperative game theory can provide a unifying perspective into what situations might give rise to the creation and exploitation of market power

pass through in a concentrated industry empirical evidence and regulatory implications we estimate pass through with thirty years of data from a concentrated industry the empirical model accounts for oligopoly interactions yet facilitates estimation with aggregate price data robust statistical evidence supports that industry wide cost changes are more than completely transmitted downstream and that this industry pass through is largely unaected by competitive conditions the industry in question portland cement is a major focus of environmental and antitrust regulators we use our pass through estimates to i evaluate the welfare consequences of marketbased co2 regulation ii predict the magnitude and location of price eects due to a merger under review by antitrust authorities and iii corroborate the simulation based analysis of the epa regarding its impending regulation of local pollutants

upward pricing pressure as a predictor of merger price effects abstract we use monte carlo experiments to evaluate whether upward pricing pressure upp accurately predicts the price effects of mergers motivated by the observation that upp is a restricted form of the first order approximation derived in jaffe and weyl 2013 results indicate that upp is quite accurate with standard log concave demand systems but understates price effects if demand exhibits greater convexity prediction error does not systematically exceed that of misspecified simulation models nor is it much greater than that of correctly specified models simulated with imprecise demand elasticities the results also support that upp provides accurate screens for anticompetitive mergers

growth controls real options and land development abstract many urban growth controls attempt to check sprawl by restricting allowable new housing densities however land may be undeveloped to preserve its real option value real options in land markets arise from uncertainty as to the optimum use of a site by limiting allowable development choices growth controls can narrow real options and potentially accelerate investment this paper examines the effect of price volatility a generator of option value on the timing of development after the imposition of an urban growth boundary ugb around seattle while the net effect of the ugb is to lower the likelihood of new housing outside the boundary by between 28 and 39 price volatility is no longer a deterrent to development

the implied reserves of the bank insurance fund abstract option models of deposit insurance pricing view assessment rates as put option premiums however such models ignore the risk of guaranty fund default this paper attempts to link risk based premiums with guaranty fund reserves in a partial equilibrium setting by employing a methodology based on options with credit risk the value of full insurance per coverage period is expressed as a standard options premium and is decomposed into two parts the explicit part is due to the available assets reserves of the guaranty fund while the implicit part comes from federal support contingent on the adequacy of reserves at the end of the coverage period implied reserves are derived under an exogenous insurance coverage rate as a policy parameter the method is illustrated on a sample of 40 large bank holding companies and an extension to the case of several insured banks is provided

is fairly priced deposit insurance possible we analyze risk sensitive incentive compatible deposit insurance in the presence of private information and moral hazard without deposit linked subsidies it is impossible to implement risk sensitive incentive compatible deposit insurance pricing in a competitive deregulated environment except when the deposit insurer is the least risk averse agent in the economy we establish this formally in the context of an insurance scheme in which privately informed depository institutions are offered deposit insurance premia contingent on reported capital the result holds for alternative sorting instruments as well this suggests a contradiction between deregulation and fairly priced risk sensitive deposit insurance this paper exposes a conflict between a deregulated competitive financial services industry on the one hand and fairly priced risk sensitive deposit insurance on the other we show that if depository institutions dis are perfectly competitive i e each makes zero profits on average then it is impossible to implement incentive compatible risk sensitive deposit insurance pricing recent distress among dis has fueled debate about reform of the existing deposit insurance system many believe that the prevailing risk insensitive premium structure encourages dis to choose excessively risky assets and that it should be replaced by deposit insurance premia linked to the dis choices of risk 2 risk sensitive deposit insurance pricing however imposes greater informational demands on the deposit insurer and runs afoul of both

implications of a land value tax with error in assessed values land value taxation has numerous potential advantages compared to conventional property taxes on capital and land the models that establish these advantages however are grounded in the unlikely assumption that land values are assessed without error this paper demonstrates that levying taxes based on land values assessed with error is equivalent to the application of one tax rate to the true value of land and a different effective tax rate to capital the model demonstrates that a land value tax will have at most the distortion effects of a property tax even with the worst possible land value assessment errors

investing in electricity production under a reliability options scheme abstract reliability options ros are used to enhance the security of supply in electricity systems when a power producer writes a ro s he agrees to set a cap on the price of electricity that s he cashes in return the system operator i e the party that is buying the option pays to the option issuer a fixed premium in this paper we analyze how ros affect the timing and value of investments in the energy sector and we show under what conditions they can be used as investment stimuli we prove that contrarily to what is expected ros can potentially harm the security of supply by delaying the adoption of new capacity and by reducing the value of investing in it to avoid such a result a careful setting of the relevant parameters is needed

use value assessment tax expenditures in urban areas abstract use value assessment is the practice of valuing land for property tax purposes in its current use rather than at its full market value this practice is widespread in the u s and is intended to reduce the property tax burden on agricultural land near urban areas and slow the pace of land development we examine the foregone property tax revenue or tax expenditure due to use value assessment data sets for two case studies are employed in empirical estimation of spatial models of the difference between market value and use value providing the analytic basis for estimates of tax expenditures

market discipline and deposit insurance cross country evidence presented in this paper suggests that explicit deposit insurance reduces required deposit interest rates while at the same time it lowers market discipline on bank risk taking internationally deposit insurance schemes vary widely in their coverage funding and management this reflects that there are widely differing views on how deposit insurance should optimally be structured to inform this debate we use a newly constructed data set of deposit insurance design features to examine how different design features affect deposit interest rates and market discipline

can the land tax help curb urban sprawl evidence from growth patterns in pennsylvania abstract urban sprawl has become a policy concern of national prominence one tool that has been suggested for combating sprawl is the land or split rate tax in theory such taxes can raise the ratio of housing capital to land this in turn can raise the density of housing units where it is applied if the average size of housing units does not increase enough to offset an effect on the number of housing units this research explores these issues looking at a panel of land uses and demographics in pennsylvania we confirm the theoretical prediction that the split rate tax raises the capital land ratio we also find that the primary effect is in more housing units rather than bigger units suggesting the split rate tax is potentially a powerful anti sprawl tool we find adoption of the split rate tax increases the number of housing units and that these units follow a more dense pattern of development

efficiencies brewed pricing and consolidation in the u s beer industry merger efficiencies provide the primary justification for why mergers of competitors may benefit consumers surprisingly there is little evidence that efficiencies can offset incentives to raise prices following mergers we estimate the effects of increased concentration and efficiencies on pricing by using panel scanner data and geographic variation in how the merger of the brewers miller and coors was expected to increase concentration and reduce costs all else equal the average predicted increase in concentration led to price increases of 2 but at the mean this was offset by a nearly equal and opposite efficiency effect

the pricing of deposit insurance considering bankruptcy costs and closure policies the paper aims to study the pricing issue of deposit insurance with explicit consideration of bankruptcy costs and closure policies full coverage from deposit insurance is imposed by many regulators to stabilize the banking system in the current financial crisis despite of the potential moral hazard problems we argue that bankruptcy cost is an important factor in pricing deposit insurance especially when the insured institution is insolvent applying the isomorphic relationship between deposit insurance and put option we first derive a closed form solution for the pricing model with bankruptcy costs and closure policies then we modify the barrier option approach to price the deposit insurance in which the bankruptcy cost is set as a function of asset return volatility and more realistic closure policies considering possible forbearance can be accounted for the properties of the models are supported by numerical simulations and are consistent with the risk based pricing scheme

econometric modeling of the capitalization formula for farmland prices an econometric model is formulated to explain the dynamic behavior in farmland prices a second order rational distributed lag on net crop share rents received by landlords captures the dynamic movements of prices and performs well in conditional post sample forecasts the adjustment path of land prices in response to a perturbation in rents is a protracted dampened cycle the implicitly estimated tax free capitalization rate on rent associated with equilibrium land price is 4 0 neither the expected rate of inflation nor an exponential trend on rent expectations has a significant effect on land prices