activity choice labor allocation and forest use in malawi this article examines the determinants of activity choice affecting forest use among low income households in malawi data from three villages are used to estimate a system of household labor share equations for maize production forest employment and non forest employment a system estimation approach is used to identify factors influencing the competing and synergistic livelihood strategies which households undertake at the forest margin results from constrained maximum likelihood estimation indicate heightened incentives to degrade forests when returns to forest use are high factors reducing forest pressure include favorable returns to non forest employment secondary education of the household head and wealth

institutions and the environmental kuznets curve for deforestation a crosscountry analysis for latin america africa and asia abstract the relationship between deforestation and income across 66 countries of latin america africa and asia is examined institutional characteristics as well as macroeconomic policies of each country are hypothesized to impact deforestation results show strong evidence of an environmental kuznets curve ekc relationship between income and deforestation for all three continents institutional structure and macroeconomic policy significantly affect the tropical deforestation process improvements in political institutions and governance significantly reduce deforestation the factors leading to deforestation differ across regions however and there is no one size fits all global policy recommendation for restraining the tropical deforestation process

taking account of governance implications for land use dynamics food prices and trade patterns deforestation mainly caused by unsustainable agricultural expansion results in a loss of biodiversity and an increase in greenhouse gas emissions as well as impinges on local livelihoods countries governance performance particularly with respect to property rights security exerts significant impacts on land use patterns by affecting agricultural yield related technological investment and cropland expansion this study aims to incorporate governance factors into a recursive agro economic dynamic model to simulate governance impacts on land use patterns at the global scale due to the difficulties of including governance indicators directly into numerical models we use lending interest rates as discount rates to reflect risk accounting factors associated with different governance scenarios in addition to a reference scenario three scenarios with high low and mixed divergent discount rates are formed to represent weak strong and fragmented governance we find that weak governance leads to slower yield growth increased cropland expansion and associated deforestation mainly in latin america sub saharan africa south asia and southeast asia this is associated with increasing food prices particularly in sub saharan africa and southeast asia by contrast strong governance performance provides a stable political and economic situation which may bring down deforestation rates stimulate investment in agricultural technologies and induce fairly strong decreases in food prices

accounting for underutilization of trade preference programs the us generalized system of preferences the us generalized system of preferences gsp provides duty free market access to developing countries yet despite these preferences about 40 of imports qualifying for gsp enter the us without claiming the benefits this paper documents variations in gsp utilization rates and explains their determinants with a special emphasis on the production structure of beneficiary countries as captured by local content the findings suggest that higher local content shares in output lead to higher utilization rates in addition the utilization rate rises with the preference margin size of exports and regional cumulation in general and declines with degree ofprocessing resume expliquer la sous utilisation des programmes de preferences commerciales le systeme generalise de preferences des etats unis le systeme generalise de preferences sgp donne acces sans droits de douane au marche americain pour des pays en developpement mais malgre ce traitement de faveur a peu pres 40 des importations qui se qualifieraient entrent aux etats unis sans reclamer ces avantages ce memoire documente les variations dans le taux d utilisation du sgp et les facteurs qui peuvent expliquer ce phenomene en mettant l accent sur la structure de production des pays beneficiaires telle que saisie par le contenu local les resultats suggerent qu une portion elevee de contenu local dans le produit entraine un plus haut taux d utilisation du sgp de plus le taux d utilisation s accroit avec la marge de preference la taille des exportations et la cumulation d autres arrangements regionaux et diminue a proportion que le degre de transformation s accroit

land clearance and social capital in mountain agro ecosystems the case of opuntia scrubland in ayacucho peru abstract opuntia scrublands are important ecological economic systems in rural andean areas they provide goods for peasants diet and animal feed as well as cochineal insects a highly valued source of dyes land clearance on these scrublands promotes changes in land use from nonproductive wilderness to cochineal and fruit harvest areas grazing lands and fuel wood supply zones here we empirically explore the role of social capital on land clearance based on a case study of the humanga region of ayacucho peru the literature on social capital is showing evidence of the positive effect of social capital on development actions and on environmental conservation in rural areas of developing countries such as participatory forest management here the notion of social capital is captured by the idea that some features of social organization such as networks facilitate coordination and cooperation within the peasant communities that help in managing different economic activities both on and off farm the habilitation of the scrublands in the andean mountain environment could be generating negative externalities as a consequence of altering the vegetation cover such as soil erosion because the benefits arising from land clearance activities are obtained by cochineal collecting households and the negative environmental effects are costs imposed upon noncochineal collectors the social capital associated with scrubland habilitation could be perverse from an agro environmental viewpoint and a revision of some government policies and of some ngos actions for rural development through the promotion of various community networks in this deprived area could be needed

the road to growth measuring the tradeoffs between economic growth and ecological destruction summary roads bring significant economic benefits that are vital for development but they are often also the precursors to deforestation and other adverse environmental impacts this paper examines the road induced tradeoffs between economic growth deforestation and biodiversity loss in the democratic republic of congo drc decades of conflict have left the drc s transport infrastructure among the sparsest and most dilapidated in the world most of the provincial capitals are unconnected to the capital city and improving road connectivity could lead to a significant boost in trade and economic growth at the same time the drc is also home to the second largest rainforest in the world the iconic congo forests are a trove of ecological value some monetizable and most that is not so the destruction of the drc s forests will have significant environmental ramifications we provide empirical estimates of the economic benefits of improving market access and reducing transportation costs we then estimate a forest destruction function to assess the impact that new or improved roads have on forest clearing in addition a novel biodiversity index is developed to identify forests of high biodiversity significance two simulations are performed to quantitatively demonstrate the impacts of road improvement projects in terms of increased gdp forest loss and biodiversity that are put at risk to our knowledge this is the first study to jointly examine the economic benefits and ecological risks to infrastructure investments it is envisioned that the methods employed here can be used to guide future infrastructure investments toward designs which have a large economic impact while minimizing ecological risks

deforestation and the rule of law in a cross section of countries relationships between deforestation and population pressure income growth and insecure property rights are examined with data from 120 countries insecure property rights are hypothesized to arise from two sources government instability or inability to enforce ownership and an absence of government accountability the former source is captured by measures of general lawlessness such as guerrilla warfare revolution and frequent constitutional change the latter is proxied by variables indicating the type of government executive frequency of political purges and the existence of an elected legislature general support is indicated for the property rights hypothesis and for the effects of population growth

how can market mechanisms for forest environmental services help the poor preliminary lessons from latin america summary market mechanisms for forest environmental services are a new approach for conservation but there is also an increasing interest in the derived developmental benefits of these mechanisms we first propose a conceptual framework for future research on the livelihood impacts of environmental service markets we then review eight latin american case studies on carbon sequestration and watershed protection market initiatives finding positive local income effects in most cases more land tenure security and socioinstitutional strengthening in some cases but some negative effects also we recommend pro poor policy measures such as reducing smallholders transaction costs and removing inappropriate access restrictions

u s multinationals and preferential market access this paper examines the relationship between oshoring activity by u s multinational rms and the structure of u s trade preferences we combine rm level panel data on u s foreign aliate activity from the u s bureau of economic analysis bea with detailed measures of u s trade preferences from the u s international trade commission usitc to create a three way panel that spans 80 industries 184 countries and ten years 1997 2006 consistent with existing theory we nd that o shoring and preferential market access are positively and consistently correlated both in the pooled sample and within countries industries and years using both instru mental variables and simultaneous equations approaches to address the endogeneity of export oriented foreign investment we nd that a 10 increase in u s foreign aliate exports to the u s from a particular industry and country is associated with a 4 per centage point increase in the rate of preferential duty free access restricting attention to the generalized system of preferences gsp among potentially eligible develop ing countries we nd that the inuence of multinational aliate sales on preferential market access more than triples

playing games in the forest state local conflicts of land appropriation this paper explores possible strategic interactions between the state and local community in games of tropical forestland appropriation three typical cases are discussed corresponding to a development over time of increased resource competition and market integration the local response to more state deforestation depends on the costs market and behavioral assumptions and less on the structure of the game cournot or stackelberg the state fuels local deforestation by providing infrastructure roads which reduces the net costs of agricultural expansion or when markets are imperfect and local behavior determined by survival needs the game structure is however important for total deforestation this paper explores possible strategic interactions between the state and local community in games of tropical forestland appropriation three typical cases are discussed corresponding to a development over time of increased resource competition and market integration the local response to more state deforestation depends on the costs market and behavioral assumptions and less on the structure of the game cournot or stackelberg the state fuels local deforestation by providing infrastructure roads which reduces the net costs of agricultural expansion or when markets are imperfect and local behavior determined by survival needs the game structure is however important for total deforestation

agricultural household models extensions applications and policy this book presents the basic model of an agricultural household that underlies most of the case studies undertaken so far the model assumes that households are price takers and is therefore recursive the decisions modeled include those affecting production and the demand for inputs and those affecting consumption and the supply of labor comparative results on selected elasticities are presented for a number of economies the empirical significance of the approach is demonstrated in a comparison of models that treat production and consumption decisions separately and those in which the decisionmaking process is recursive the book summarizes the implications of agricultural pricing policy for the welfare of farm households marketed surplus the demand for nonagricultural goods and services the rural labor market budget revenues and foreign exchange earnings in addition it is shown that the basic model can be extended in order to explore the effects of government policy on crop composition nutritional status health saving and investment and to provide a more comprehensive analysis of the effects on budget revenues and foreign exchange earnings methodological topics primarily the data requirements of the basic model and its extensions along with aggregation market interaction uncertainty and market imperfections are discussed the most important methodological issues the question of the recursive property of these models is also discussed

land use change with spatially explicit data a dynamic approach most of the economic literature that uses spatially explicit data to estimate the determinants of land use change is limited to static models and cross sectional data sets recent attempts to move to a more dynamic analysis include using panel data sets and survival analysis in this study we use a discrete choice dynamic model of land use where the agent s choices are regarded as the solution to a dynamic optimization problem the irreversibility of some decisions expectations about future prices and forward looking behavior of the land operator can all be accounted for our results show that a model specification that incorporates some of the complexities of the decision process improves upon results found in the existing literature first prediction accuracy of land use change is superior to any of the existing models second we demonstrate that models that do not account for transactions costs tend to overestimate the effects of changes in transportation costs

what does export diversification do for growth an econometric analysis it is frequently suggested that export diversification contributes to an acceleration of growth in developing countries horizontal export diversification into completely new export sectors may generate positive externalities on the rest of the economy as export oriented sectors gain from dynamic learning activities due to contacts with foreign purchasers and exposure to international competition vertical diversification out of primary into manufactured exports is also associated with growth since primary export sectors generally do not exhibit strong spillovers yet there have been remarkably few empirical investigations into the link between export diversification and growth this paper attempts to examine the hypothesis that export diversification is linked to economic growth via externalities of learning by doing and learning by exporting fostered by competition in world markets the diversification led growth hypothesis is tested by estimating an augmented cobb douglas production function on the bas

time preference and preference reversal among experienced subjects the effects of real payments preference reversal has been frequent in tests with hypothetical or small real payoffs concerning lotteries as well as claims redeemable at different future dates pr is tested here for the latter case with nontrivial payment levels and subjects likely to deal with decisions of this type it is found i that replacing hypothetical by real payment tests reduces pr rates from 62 to i 5 for subjects predicted to reverse preferences and 2 that the real overall pr rate before correcting for response errors is i9 much lower than in earlier studies

explaining the appearance and success of open space referenda many communities in the united states have begun enacting policies to preserve open space often through local voter referenda new jersey sponsors such municipal action through the green acres program by providing funding and low interest loans to towns that choose to increase property taxes and spend the money raised on open space preservation for the purposes of conservation and or recreation this paper endeavors to understand which factors contribute to the appearance and success of these measures although previous literature has examined this issue this is the first study to account for spatial dependence spatial autocorrelation and to explore dynamic issues through survival analysis the traditional two stage model from the literature is extended by incorporating a bayesian spatial probit for the first stage and a maximum likelihood spatial error model in the second stage a cox proportional hazard model is used to examine the timing of referenda appearance spatial dependence is found in the second stage of the analysis indicating that future studies should account for its influence there is no strong evidence for spatial dependence or correlation in the first stage the survival model is found to be a useful complement to the traditional probit analysis of the first stage

deforestation in the brazilian amazon comparing the impacts of macroeconomic shocks land tenure and technological change the paper examines the current relevance of the set of variables reported in the literature as driving deforestation in the brazilian amazon the analysis uses a computable general equilibrium cge model adapted to capture regional economic structures and the environmental processes specific to tropical areas the paper compares the impact on deforestation in the brazilian amazon of changes in real exchange rate modifications in agricultural tax and support policies reductions in transportation costs arising from investment in infrastructure in the amazon changes in land tenure regimes and technological change in agriculture affecting productivity and agronomic sustainability

a tale of two communities explaining deforestation in mexico summary deforestation policies in mexico need to recognize heterogeneity in community s management schemes in communities that extract wood from the forest for profit forestry projects generate funds whose investment in public goods increases the value of standing forest to those not receiving direct dividends from the projects increases in such investment help decrease deforestation in communities with other livelihoods deforestation decreases with the community s ability to form a coalition that cooperates in reducing forest clearing this is easier in smaller communities with more experienced leaders analysis using data collected in 2002 combined with satellite imagery verifies the models predictions

export competitiveness of developing countries and us trade policy this paper examines the impact of the revocation of tariff exemptions on exports of developing countries using data from cases of the competitive needs limits cnl a feature of the us generalized system of preferences gsp competitive needs limits are arguably imposed on super competitive gsp beneficiaries who no longer need the preferential treatment and aim to reserve the gsp benefits for other gsp eligible countries the findings suggest that being excluded from the gsp as a result of a cnl induces a large and significant drop in us imports from affected countries both in value and as a share of total us imports and much of their market share is captured by non gsp countries contrary to the policy objectives of cnls

market integration development and smallholder forest clearance a significant proportion of deforestation in latin america is caused by smallholders living at the frontier of modern rural markets this paper develops a household model that examines the roles of market integration subsistence time preference and non timber forest uses in the household s decision to clear forest for future agriculture the model explores the possible impacts of development programs that encourage market integration the model shows that rates of forest clearance should be exacerbated in areas in which market integration is most rapid an empirical estimation using household data from the tsimane people of bolivia tests hypotheses from the model

industry risk factors and the implications for diversification within the northern ireland regional economy this discussion attempts to identify within the northern ireland regional framework risk factors beta coefficients for all industrial classifications both private and public sector the stability of these risk factors over a recent 25 year period and their response to cyclical fluctuations in the regional economy are examined before they are employed as input data in the construction of an optimal diversified industrial portfolio for norhern ireland the study indicates that the classifications with in the service sector both private and public exhibit below average employment variability and that the optimal industrial base in northern ireland in terms of minimizing employment variability is one of a relatively heavy reliance on service sector industries and in particular producer services such a finding is important in that it lends support to those advocating an expansion of producer services at the regional level on the basis that producer services like manufacturing add to the stock of weal

brazilian policies that encourage deforestation in the amazon this paper shows that general tax policies special tax incentives the rules of land allocation and the agricultural credit system all accelerate deforestation in the amazon these policies increase the size of land holdings and reduce the chances of the poor to become farmers the following are the key provisions i the virtual exemption of agricultural income from income taxation makes agriculture a tax shelter ii rules of public land allocation provide incentives for deforestation because the rules used in determining the security of a claim and its land area encourage land clearing iii the progressive land tax contains provisions that encourage the conversion of forest to crop land or pasture iv the tax credit scheme aimed toward corporate livestock ranches subsidizes inefficient ranches established on cleared forest land and v subsidized credit is available for sudam approved ranches

tenure security private time preference and use of natural resources among lowland bolivian amerindians abstract to estimate the effect of tenure security and private time preference on the use of different types of natural resources such as old growth and fallow forests fish and game we did a survey and a psychological experiment with 443 households in 42 villages of yuracare mojeno tsimane and chiquitano indians in the bolivian lowlands results of multivariate tobit regressions suggest that 1 among the yuracare tsimane and mojeno rates of private time preference had a small economic and statistical effect on the use of natural resources and 2 tenure security proxied by residence duration in the village and by conflict with abutters only affected the consumption of wildlife principally of game results suggest that public policies to improve property rights over natural resources among indigenous people might have greater immediate impact on the conservation of wildlife than on the conservation of forest cover

product diversification and stability of employment and sales first evidence from german manufacturing firms we use a unique rich newly built data set for german manufacturing enterprises to investigate the relationship between product diversification and the stability of sales and employment we find that contrary to portfolio theoretic considerations more diversified firms exhibit a higher variability of sales and employment however the effects are negligibly small from an economics point of view

exchange rate and utilization of free trade agreements focus on rules of origin abstract tariff rates under a free trade agreement fta are not necessarily used in the majority of trade even among members of an fta one of the causes of this phenomenon is the presence of rules of origin roos which require exporters to comply with specific conditions when utilizing an fta scheme to consider how roos should be designed so that exporters can more robustly use an fta scheme this paper investigates the effect of exchange rates on fta scheme utilization with a focus on roos exchange rates affect exporters compliance with roos by changing the so called value added ratio which is defined as 1 price of imported inputs from non fta member countries export product price based on a model of pricing to market we propose that an unexpected depreciation of exporters currency against importers currency improves the value added ratio through a rise in the export product s price which in turn enhances exporters utilization of an fta scheme we also show strong empirical support for the proposition using the detailed product level data on fta scheme utilization in korea s imports from association of south east asian nations asean countries

temporal and spatial modelling of tropical deforestation a survival analysis linking satellite and household survey data we estimate a spatially explicit model of the forest clearance process among smallholder farmers in an agricultural frontier of southern mexico our analysis takes as its point of departure a simple utility maximising model that suggests many possible determinants of deforestation in an economic environment characterised by missing or thin markets hypotheses from the model are tested on a data set that combines a time series of satellite imagery with data collected from a survey of farm households whose agricultural plots were geo referenced using a global positioning system gps we implement a survival analysis to identify the effect of household level explanatory variables on the probability of deforestation this approach allows us to introduce a measure of the time until clearance as a covariate thereby affording a control for the effect of potentially important explanatory variables that vary through time but are not directly observable in addition to identifying several variables relevant for policy analysis including household demographics proximity to roads and government provision of agricultural support model results suggest that the deforestation process is characterised by non linear duration dependence with the probability of forest clearance first decreasing and then increasing with the passage of time

property rights and deforestation in the brazilian amazon this paper focuses on the impact of property rights insecurity on deforestation in the brazilian legal amazon deforestation is considered as a risk management strategy property rights insecurity reduces the present value of forests and fosters forest conversion into agricultural and pasture lands moreover deforestation is the consequence of strategic interactions between landowners and squatters landowners clear the forest preventively in order to assert the productive use of land and to reduce the expropriation risk squatters invade land plots clear the forest and may afterwards gain official recognition with formal property titles a particular attention is paid to the measure of land property rights insecurity in the brazilian context it is assumed that property rights insecurity has a multidimensional character taken into account by the number of homicides related to land conflicts and expropriation procedures principal component analysis allows synthesising such information an econometric model of deforestation is estimated on a panel dataset on the 1988 2000 period and the nine states of the brazilian legal amazon the hypothesis that insecure land property rights contribute to higher rates of deforestation is not rejected when the simultaneity bias between insecure property rights and deforestation is addressed this result questions the modality of the brazilian land reform that considers forested areas as unproductive and thus open for expropriation procedures

the interaction of population growth and environmental quality an important question for policy is whether holding constant per capita income and other relevant factors population pressures have a significant effect upon environmental degradation the authors examine the effect of population pressures upon deforestation in 64 developing countries in an attempt to provide relevant empirical findings data on deforestation were drawn from the food and agriculture organizations production yearbook results suggest that a relationship exists between per capita income and deforestation and that for africa rural population density shifts the relationship upward the increase in the rate of deforestation levels off as income increases the rate of growth in per capita income also has a significant negative impact upon deforestation although the magnitude of the effect is small the authors close in stressing that reducing the rate of population growth is not necessarily the best way to reduce the rate of deforestation deforestation in developing countries is really a problem of market failure since property rights are often neither defined nor enforced there is essentially no private cost of deforestation with no long term stake in the land people have no incentive to use land efficiently this situation must be addressed in conjunction with the problems of poverty and population growth

spatial externalities in agriculture empirical analysis statistical identification and policy implications summary spatial externalities can affect economic welfare and landscape pattern by linking farm returns on adjoining parcels of land while policy can be informed by research that documents spatial externalities statistically quantifying the presence of externalities from landscape pattern is insufficient for policy guidance unless the underlying cause of the externality can be identified as positive or negative this article provides a springboard for empirical research by examining the underlying structure social environmental interactions and statistical identification strategies for the analysis and the quantification of agricultural spatial externalities that are derived from observations of landscape change the potential for original policy treatments of agricultural spatial externalities in development and environment outcomes is highlighted

economies in transition and public land use policy discrete duration models of eastern wilderness designation land use policies may affect the structure of local economies as they respond to internal and external factors we apply a discrete duration model to estimate the effect of designated wilderness on the rate and timing of counties economic transition in the appalachian region from 1969 to 2000 transitions are measured as the year in which non labor sources of income and services sector employment dominate the aggregate of resource extraction and manufacturing sectors as sources marginal effects and elasticities show designated wilderness had no practical effect on rates and timing of transition

capturing household level spatial influence in agricultural management using random effects regression abstract data on agricultural and natural resource management typically have spatial patterns related to the landscapes from which they came consequently econometric models designed to explain the determinants of humans natural resource management practices or their outcomes often have spatial structure that can bring bias or inefficiency to parameter estimates although econometric tools are available to correct for spatial structure such tools are largely lacking for use with discrete dependent variable models while one obvious solution would be to develop the necessary tools an alternative is to identify conditions under which spatial dependency can be managed effectively without formal spatial autoregressive models this study examines conditions under which spatial structure corresponds closely to defined agro ecological zones making it possible to model spatial effects by random effects regression using household survey data sampled along agro ecological zone strata this article develops two models of links between farmer assets and agricultural natural resource degradation in southern peru the first stage model looks at determinants of crop yield loss over time an index of soil productivity while the second stage model looks at determinants of the extent of fallow cycles in crop rotation a key agricultural practice reducing crop yield loss diagnostic statistics for spatial dependency reveal spatial structure particularly in the fallow model this spatial dependency is eliminated in the ordinary least squares ols models by inclusion of the agro ecological zone random effects in the spatially dependent fallow model comparison of coefficient estimates between ols and the spatial autoregressive maximum likelihood models showed ols with random effects to give virtually identical results to the spatial autoregressive models making the latter unnecessary these results show that spatial structure in natural resource management models can sometimes be captured by zonal variables when this occurs random effects regression can largely eliminate spatial dependency a necessary precondition for this approach with household survey data is prior sample stratification according to landscape characteristics where random effects models can effectively capture spatial structure they may also offer analysts greater flexibility in analyzing models with limited dependent variables

contagious development neighbor interactions in deforestation article i nfo we estimate neighbor interactions in deforestation in costa rica to address simultaneity and the presence of spatially correlated unobservables we measure for neighbors deforestation using the slopes of neighbors and neighbors neighbors parcels we find that neighboring deforestation significantly raises the probability of deforestation policies for agricultural development or forest conservation in one area will affect deforestation rates in non targeted neighboring areas correct estimation of the interaction reverses the naive estimate s prediction of multiple equilibria

re election incentives and deforestation cycles in the brazilian amazon abstract despite expansive research on amazonian deforestation and its drivers the role of local politics is not well understood using a panel data set that combines municipal level deforestation and election data from 2002 to 2012 i estimate the effect of an incumbent mayor running for re election on deforestation rates in election periods i find that deforestation rates increase 8 10 in election years when an incumbent mayor runs for re election an amount equivalent to four percent of the total forest lost since the 2004 elections electoral deforestation cycles do not appear to be driven by changes in agricultural policy implementation and activity but are linked to corruption and campaign finance suggesting that weak institutional constraints facilitate electoral manipulation of forest resources this phenomenon is not likely limited to amazonian forests re election incentives could very well lead to misallocation of other natural resources in alternate geographies

transactions costs and agricultural household supply response we develop and estimate a model of supply response when transactions costs create a situation where some producers buy others sell and others do not participate in markets we present two rationales for why producing households may have different relationships to the market proportional and fixed transactions costs using data on mexican corn producers we estimate an empirical model that allows for separate tests of the significance of both types of transactions costs revealing that both fixed and proportional transactions costs matter for the estimation the results provide consistent estimates of supply elasticity and measures of the relative importance of factors determining both proportional and fixed transactions costs

determinants of deforestation and the economics of protection an application to mexico we estimate the probability of deforestation at the plot level for chiapas and oaxaca two poor mexican states with high levels of biodiversity results highlight the importance of physio geographic endowments as well as policy variables and allow to test explicitly for aggregation bias they also suggest that if combined with information on the biodiversity value of specific plots such models could be of great relevance for policy by allowing to identify the ex ante risk of deforestation copyright 2002 oxford university press

superstars in the national basketball association economic value and policy an econometric analysis demonstrates that television ratings for nba games are substantially higher when certain players superstars are involved thus these superstars are quite important for generating revenue not only for their own teams but for other teams as well using the econometric analysis and additional information on attendance and paraphernalia sales we estimate the value of michael jordan to the other nba teams to be approximately 53 million the positive externality superstars have on other teams can lead to an inefficient distribution of player talent we examine several league policies that might be used to address the externality

transport costs and smallholder cropping choices an application to siaya district kenya smallholders regularly devote shares of resources to low yielding food crops than they do to cash crops that have higher market returns in this paper costly exchange is incorporated into an agricultural household model and a numerical nonseparable version of the model is used to show that seemingly inefficient cropping choices of this type in siaya district kenya can be explained as rational food import substitution given high transport costs in product markets improved rural road networks that reduce these costs could abate motives to meet food needs through domestic production and promote specialization that raises farm incomes

land use and income diversification comparing traditional and colonist populations in the brazilian amazon this article compares and analyzes land use and income diversification among two distinct groups of farmers in the brazilian amazon recent colonists in ouro preto do oeste rondonia and traditional long term residents along the tapajos river para we investigate the hypothesis that farmers who diversify their cash income sources clear less forest on an annual basis and we compare these livelihood choices across colonist and traditional populations in particular we develop a conceptual model based on the household production framework and use econometric models to identify determinants of diversification and forest clearing we find that diversification of agricultural cash crops is negatively correlated with forest clearing by colonists providing limited evidence for the hypothesis other significant covariates of diversification and forest clearing include cash income levels stage in family life cycle cattle ownership and chemical inputs differences in these variables and differences in household response to these variables explain variation in diversification and forest clearing across the two populations

the us generalised system of preferences in principle and practice in principle the us generalised system of preferences gsp offers uniform market access to exports from eligible developing countries for a broad set of gsp eligible products in practice realised gsp tariff exemptions demonstrate marked variation across countries industries and years in this paper we identify the sources of discretionary and non discretionary gsp exclusions and quantify the extent to which competitive needs limitations cnls waivers and additional annual product country and country product exclusions drive a wedge between the generalised principle of gsp and its implementation in practice

household composition labor markets and labor demand testing for separation in agricultural household models this paper tests the separation of farm labor supply and labor demand decisions using the observation that household composition is an important determinant of farm labor use with nonseparation after assessing the conditions under which the test has power against several alternatives an empirical model is developed to test the proposition that farm employment is independent of family composition the model is estimated on a data set from rural java the null hypothesis that farm labor allocation decisions are independent of household structure is not rejected the results are robust to different specifications of the labor demand function copyright 1992 by the econometric society

a new look at the benefits of diversification lessons from central america recent trends of export diversification in central america may lower foreign exchange earnings instability there four countries costa rica el salvador honduras and guatemala are analysed across a twenty year period the paper uses united nations commodity trade statistics to explain why costa rica and honduras have enjoyed greater earnings stability in recent years despite the fact that honduras has not greatly diversified its export products and markets despite the growth of new agricultural and manufacturing goods traditional primary products still dominate the countries export portfolios specific products within each of the four broad product category groups contribute to the varied country outcomes summary statistics from the united nations panel data suggest newer agricultural exports have not stabilized guatemalan and salvadoran export earnings while honduras has enjoyed relatively stable banana export revenues and costa rica has benefited from the smooth flow of microelectronic product

ownership risk investment and the use of natural resources the effect of insecure ownership on ordinary investment and natural resource use is examined insecure ownership is postulated to depend on the type of government regime in power and the prevalence of political violence or instability the political determinants of economy wide investment are estimated from cross country data and the results are used to form an index of ownership security when introduced into empirical models of natural resource use this index has a significant and quantitatively important effect on the use of forests and petroleum contrary to conventional wisdom ownership risk slows resource use in some circumstances

introduction to the special issue on spatial analysis for agricultural economists abstract the goal of this special issue is to introduce agricultural economists to new analytical approaches involving spatial data this paper provides a brief history of the special issue and an introduction to von thunen s model of the determinants of land use and rent that underlies all spatial analysis

does poverty constrain deforestation econometric evidence from peru this paper examines the relationship between income and land clearing for households living in tropical forest regions a simple model of the agricultural household that clears land for agriculture is developed to investigate the relationship between lagged income and cleared land holdings analysis of panel data from peru suggests that lagged income is positively correlated with clearing though at a decreasing rate and because of labor market constraints clearing is positively correlated with household labor availability this work suggests that small increases in the incomes of the poorest are unlikely to reduce deforestation in this context

economic growth and the rise of forests although forests have diminished globally over the past 400 years forest cover has increased in some areas including india in the last two decades aggregate time series evidence on forest growth rates and income growth across countries and within india and a newly assembled data set that combines national household survey data census data and satellite images of land use in rural india at the village level over a 29 year period are used to explore the hypothesis that increases in the demand for forest products associated with income and population growth lead to forest growth the evidence is consistent with this hypothesis which also shows that neither the expansion of agricultural productivity nor rising wages in india increased local forest cover

multilateral agricultural trade liberalisation the contrasting fortunes of developing countries in the doha round an applied general equilibrium model is used to assess the impact of multilateral trade liberalisation in agriculture with particular emphasis on developing countries we use original data and the model includes some specific features such as a dual labour market applied tariffs including those under preferential regimes and regional agreements are taken into account at the detailed product level together with the corresponding bound tariffs on which countries negotiate the various types of farm support are detailed and several groups of developing countries are distinguished simulations give a contrasted picture of the benefits developing countries would draw from the doha development round the results suggest that previous studies have neglected preferential agreements and the binding overhang in tariffs as well as domestic support and have treated developing countries with a high level of aggregation and been excessively optimistic about the actual benefits of multilateral trade liberalisation regions like sub saharan africa are more likely to suffer from the erosion of existing preferences the main gainers of the doha round are likely to be developed countries and cairns group members

deforestation land use and property rights empirical evidence from darien panama economic conventional wisdom suggests that providing land users with more secure property rights will result in more sustainable land use and less deforestation in this paper we use spatial econometric techniques to evaluate quantitatively the effect on land use of designated property rights in three parts of darie n province a national park where no human activity is supposed to occur and two reserves for indigenous peoples results suggest that legal property rights for an indigenous population can influence land use geography appears to be more important than legal protection for the national park

deforestation and the environmental kuznets curve an institutional perspective institutions for secure property rights and better environmental policies for moving the system towards a sustainable growth path can reduce the height of an environmental kuznets curve ekc relationship between income and deforestation this study examines the impact of these specific institutional factors on the ekc relationship for deforestation across latin american african and asian countries the factors related to agricultural production population economy and governmental policies of each country are hypothesised to affect deforestation results of the latin american countries show significant evidence of an ekc relationship for deforestation and also relevance of the institutional factors to reduce the rate of deforestation improvements in institutions for secure property rights and better environmental policies can thus significantly reduce the rate of deforestation without hindering the level of economic growth evidence also suggests that the effect of agricultural production on deforestation could be halted by strengthening institutional factors there was found to be complementarity between the institutional factors and forest sector polices and an additive effect between the institutional factors and forest products export promotion policies which could also eventually reduce the rate of deforestation

making eu trade agreements work the role of rules of origin a key element of the eu s free trade and preferential trade agreements is the extent to which they deliver improved market access and so contribute to the eu s foreign policy objectives towards developing countries and neighbouring countries in europe including the countries of the balkans previous preferential trade schemes have been ineffective in delivering improved access to the eu market since only a small proportion of the available preferences have actually been utilised the main reason for this is probably the very restrictive rules of origin that the eu imposes coupled with the costs of proving consistency with these rules if the eu wants the everything but arms agreement and free trade agreements with countries in the balkans to generate substantial improvements in access to the eu market for products from these countries then it will have to reconsider the current rules of origin and implement less restrictive rules backed up by a careful safeguards policy

preference utilisation and tariff reduction in eu imports from acp countries textabstractdespite the long relationship between the eu and the african caribbean and pacific acp countries aimed at encouraging their exports while stimulating growth and investment the acp states still face difficulties in integrating into the world economy this paper examines the non least developed acp countries preferential trade with the eu the objective is to explain the determinants of preferential exports of acp countries towards the eu and to assess the impact of preferences on trade volumes we also investigate the existence of a threshold in the offered duty reduction under which traders have no incentives to ask for preferences

explaining forest transitions the role of governance abstract we analyze how governance may influence competing land uses for forests and thus the occurrence of forest transitions across different low and middle income countries we develop a model of competing land uses that allows for governance to impact the risk of future versus current agricultural and forested land allocations the resulting hypothesis on the relationship between governance and the likelihood of a forest transition is then tested using cross country data the empirical analysis offers strong support for the competing land use framework and indicates that rule of law forest policy and regulatory quality influence forest transitions these findings inform not only the ongoing debate on forest transitions but also policy options for managing such transitions in developing economies

education and off farm work an investigation is presented of the determinants of educational selectivity in a framework that emphasizes the coordination of household members sectoral time allocation is based on members comparative advantage which in turn depends on the utilization and returns to schooling in the farm and nonfarm sectors central to the model is a knowledge spillover hypothesis that workers who participate in off farm work may still contribute knowledge to farm management estimation of the model is based on cross sectional chinese farm household data collected in 1990 from 204 households in sichuan province it is concluded that schooling does not enhance labour productivity when carrying out routine tasks that the contribution to farm efficiency by the most educated members is not affected by their non farm participation and that schooling increases labour market wage rates these empirical results give comparative advantage for the better educated farmers to work off the farm

the role of tenure security and private time preference in neotropical deforestation a survey of 209 chimane amerindian households in 18 villages in the bolivian rain forest was done to examine the role of tenure security and private time preference on the clearance of old growth forest results of tobit regressions suggest that conflict with abutters was associated with more deforestation but the average impatience of the household heads was associated with less deforestation results suggest that governments should protect the land rights of indigenous people if they wish to enhance conservation results cast doubts on the idea that high private time preference increases the depletion of natural resources

a two season agricultural household model of output and price uncertainty abstract this paper presents a two season model of a household s production consumption labor supply and storage decisions in an environment of output and price risk the analytical results in this study are markedly different from those of models prevalent in the mainstream of the agricultural household literature the empirical analysis that uses panel data from a village in india provides support for the theoretical results and underscores the seasonal dimension of the farmers choice problems the results also show that ignoring risk or risk averse preferences may introduce substantial downward bias in optimal response estimates

deforestation and the real exchange rate deforestation is a phenomenon that has largely been concentrated in the developing world we construct a theoretical model of deforestation that focuses on the factors affecting the incentives to transform forested land into agricultural land we show that i lower discount rates and stronger institutions decrease deforestation ii depreciations in the real exchange rate increase deforestation in developing countries whereas the opposite obtains in developed countries iii paradoxically better institutions may exacerbate the deleterious impact of depreciations in developing countries these hypotheses are tested on an annual sample of 101 countries over the 1961 1988 period and are not rejected by the data our results suggest that short term macroeconomic policy institutional factors and the interaction between the two are potentially important determinants of environmental outcomes