monitoring changes in economy wide energy efficiency from energy gdp ratio to composite efficiency index since the 1973 world oil crisis monitoring trends in energy efficiency at the economy wide level has been an important component of energy strategy in many countries to support this effort various energy efficiency related indicators have been developed we examine some classical indicators which are often found in national and international energy studies in the 1970s and 1980s we then describe the recent developments in using the index decomposition analysis to give an economy wide composite energy efficiency index based on a bottom up approach this composite index is superior to the classical indicators as an economy wide energy efficiency measure and has lately been adopted by a growing number of countries for national energy efficiency trend monitoring

are labour productivity and residential living standards drivers of the energy consumption changes abstract the aim of this paper is to analyse the effects that explain the final energy consumption changes in spain in the period 2000 2013 using the lmdi i method distinguishing between the final energy consumption by the productive sectors and households residential and private transport the consumption changes in the productive sectors and households have been decomposed into five effects these are the intensity the inverse of labour productivity the structural the standard of living and the activity effects the energy intensity effect has been defined from a physical perspective in order to eliminate the possible effects brought about by causes unconnected with the energy process the evolution of the market the variation of productivity etc that usually affect the energy intensity indicator when measured from a macroeconomic perspective the results show that the activity the living standard of private transport and sectoral intensity effect are those that contribute most to the increase of energy consumption in this period whereas the inverse of labour productivity the structural and the intensity effects in private transport contribute to reducing the final energy consumption the results obtained for the sectoral intensity except for non private transport and the residential intensity effects lead us to recommend that it is necessary to focus on a more effective and intensive policy in the matter of energy efficiency in spain than that developed in the period of analysis

cointegration and market efficiency in commodities futures markets the hypothesis that futures prices are unbiased predictors of spot prices is a joint hypothesis that markets are efficient and risk premia are absent rejection of unbiasedness could be caused by the failure of either premise here cointegration techniques are used to test market efficiency while permitting the presence of risk premia five commodity markets were tested at the eight and twenty four week horizon results showed that all five were sometimes inefficient but no market was inefficient always moreover rejections of the unbiasedness hypothesis were nearly always caused by market inefficiency rather than the presence of risk premia

price density forecasts in the u s hog markets composite procedures we develop and evaluate quarterly out of sample individual and composite density forecasts for u s hog prices individual density forecasts are generated using time series models and the implied distributions of usda and iowa state university outlook forecasts composite density forecasts are constructed using linear and logarithmic combinations of the individual forecasts and several weighting schemes density forecasts are evaluated on predictive accuracy sharpness goodness of fit calibration and their economic value in a hedging simulation logarithmic combinations using equal and mean square error weights outperform all individual density forecasts and are modestly better than linear composites comparison of the outlook forecasts to the best composite demonstrates the usefulness of the composite procedure and identifies the economic value that more accurate expected price probability distributions can provide to producers

a multi dimensional analysis on microeconomic factors of china s industrial energy intensity 2000 2017 abstract reducing energy intensity is the key point to solve the contradiction among economic development energy constraints and environmental pressure in china considering microeconomic factors this paper extends decomposition and attribution models and analyses the drivers of china s industrial aggregate energy intensity aei at the regional sectoral level the results show that aei decreased by 49 during 2000 2017 at the regional level most provinces presented negative contribution on regional energy intensity effect the aei decline was attributed to the drop of greatest negative effect of r d efficiency in liaoning the increase in investment intensity and r d intensity lead to an increase in aei largely owning to shandong and liaoning respectively at the sectoral level the aei decline can be mainly explained by the inhibition effect of energy intensity and r d efficiency however this negative contribution was greatly offset by the r d intensity effect the investment intensity showed a positive impact in aei increase and smelting and pressing of ferrous metals sector was the main contributor regional and sectoral investment structure effect shifted from increasing to decreasing aei over the study period based on the results targeted policy recommendations are proposed to further decrease the china s industrial aei in the 14th fyp period

back to the futures an assessment of market performance on the early winnipeg grain exchange in this paper i offer a quantitatively rich historical perspective with which to consider western canada s recent return to private grain marketing i assess how futures markets on the winnipeg grain exchange wge performed before the canadian wheat board and i consider the extent to which this performance contributed to the canadian government s decision to create the board i conclude despite significant agrarian dissatisfaction with private grain marketing on the wge the canadian government ultimately proscribed futures trading because it was incompatible with the cwb model which the canadian government needed in order to stabilize farm incomes particularly in the aftermath of the great depression resume retour aux contrats a terme une evaluation de la performance du marche au temps du winnipeg grain exchange l auteur offre une perspective historique qui s appuie sur de riches donnees quantitatives qu il utilise pour evaluer le recent retour de la mise en marche privee dans l ouest canadien il evalue la performance des marches a terme sur le winnipeg grain exchange wge avant l arrivee de la commission canadienne du ble cwb et jusqu a quel point cette performance a contribue a la decision du gouvernement du canada de mettre sur pied la cwb il conclut que malgre le mecontentement significatif du monde agricole quant a la mise en marche privee sur le wge le gouvernement du canada mit fin a ses pratiques parce que celles ci etaient incompatibles avec le modele de la cwb dont le canada avait besoin pour stabiliser les revenus des fermiers surtout dans la periode qui a suivi la grande crise

an alternative decomposition of the fisher index we derive a novel decomposition of the fisher price index that is directly implied by its linear homogeneity in price relatives our results can readily be generalized to any index that satisfies the linear homogeneity property

indicators for sustainable energy development a multivariate cointegration and causality analysis from tunisian road transport sector this paper studies causal mechanism between indicators for sustainable energy development related to energy consumption from tunisian road transport sector the investigation is made using the johansen cointegration technique and the environmental kuznets curve ekc approach it examines the nexus between transport value added road transport related energy consumption road infrastructure fuel price and co2 emissions from tunisian transport sector during the period of 1980 2010 empirical results show that road transport related energy consumption transport value added transport co2 emissions and road infrastructure are mutually causal in the long run these results do not support the hypothesis of neutrality between energy and income for the tunisian road transport sector also there is a unidirectional causality running from fuel price to road transport related energy consumption with no feedback in both the short and long runs the fuel price and the road infrastructure are significant in the causal chain though the estimated long run cointegrated equation we conclude that there is an inverse n shaped relation between transport value added and transport co2 emissions with income turning point respectively equal to 75 and 579 constant 2000 tnd prices therefore our empirical findings refute the hypothesis of an inverted u shaped ekc for transport co2 emissions in tunisia the findings of this study have a number of policy implications economic growth environmental degradation energy and transportation policies should be recognized in order to improve the energy efficiency in transport sector all measures that should reduce petroleum consumption and greenhouse gas emissions without affecting economic growth may be undertaken the policymakers in tunisia should plan urban transport relocate production units improve fuel efficient vehicles and reinforce legislation on controlling emissions in order to copying with policies based on low carbon development and climate resilient strategies

comparing electricity consumption trends a multilevel index decomposition analysis of the genevan and swiss economy abstract switzerland including the canton of geneva aims to reduce its electricity consumption following its decision to phase out nuclear electricity production to investigate whether national policies and a regional programme both of which aim at improving electricity efficiency may have had an effect we disentangle the effects of changes in economic structure overall economic activity and structure corrected energy intensity scei on the electricity consumption in the canton of geneva and in switzerland on multiple aggregation levels the primary sector being negligibly small we define the economy as the secondary and tertiary sector our analysis shows that changes in electricity consumption in the genevan and swiss economy were mainly caused by changes in activity and scei although structural changes were not negligible specifically we have shown that correcting for structural change may significantly impact comparisons between regional scei trends our analysis shows that economy wide electric energy efficiency improved both in geneva and switzerland this is the case both for the time period 2000 2007 first period before implementation of the energy efficiency programme eep eco21 in geneva and for the period 2008 2014 second period after implementation of the eep excluding 2015 in switzerland the average reductions in scei in the study periods were similar 1 2 per year in the first period and 1 0 per year in the second period the average reduction in scei in geneva was faster in the second period 2 6 per year than in the first period 1 5 per year these findings suggest that national energy efficiency policies that have been in place since 2001 have been effective a strong increase in scei by 4 6 occurred in geneva in 2015 diminishing the gap between the genevan and swiss scei we found that this increase was likely to be caused by weather effects when including the year 2015 the average reduction in scei in the second period was 1 7 for geneva and 1 1 for switzerland moreover we have shown that weather effects were more strongly correlated with scei than with absolute electricity consumption highlighting the importance of correcting for structure and weather effects further weather effects made it difficult to identify contributions from the eep to the reduction of the genevan scei we found that the applicability ida for tracing the effectiveness of eeps needs to be critically assessed in view of data availability confounding influences such as weather effects as well as the maturity and size of the eep

real interest rates and the savings and loan crisis the moral hazard premium real interest rates shifted upwards by four or five percentage points in approximately 1980 the question is why in this paper we review some of the more popular explanations and point out that they are somewhat inconsistent with the facts we then present a new explanation which may partially account for the dramatic increase we suggest that the upward shift in rates may be directly connected with the decade long crisis in the savings and loan industry and the federal government s handling of that crisis owners and managers of troubled thrifts responded to the incentives provided by underpriced deposit insurance by offering higher and higher rates in an attempt to attract new funds depositors anticipating that the government would protect their investments actively sought out higher yields in local and national markets the end result was that the rates offered by treasury securities rose to compete with these quasi risk free substitutes sold by savings and loans this added and indeed continues to add significantly to the federal government s borrowing costs we calculate this increased cost under various assumptions about the effect of the s l crisis on real interest rates

returns to individual traders of futures aggregate results by means of a data set previously unavailable for academic research actual trading histories of individual futures traders are examined with this more detailed data the author is able to 1 test the risk return hypothesis directly 2 include a much larger segment of the market than before and 3 use actual instead of hypothetical t rading strategies it is shown that the commercial hedging traders are most profitable while noncommercial speculative traders earn n egative or zero profits because speculators are not receiving reward s for the risks they willingly absorb the theory of normal backwarda tion and its extension can be rejected copyright 1987 by university of chicago press

market efficiency in agricultural futures markets market efficiency and unbiasedness are tested in four agricultural commodity futures markets live cattle hogs corn and soybean meal using cointegration and error correction models with gqarch in mean processes results indicate each market is unbiased in the long run although cattle hogs and corn futures markets exhibit short run inefficiencies and pricing biases models for cattle and corn outperform futures prices in out of sample forecasting results also suggest short run time varying risk premiums in cattle and hog futures markets

risk response in the beef marketing channel a multivariate generalized arch m approach a model of the farm retail price spread for beef is specified under rational expectations in which systematic risk response on the part of marketing intermediaries is allowed the three equation structural model contains potentially time varying risk terms in margin and supply equations which i approximate and estimate using a multivariate garch in mean approach the estimated model is used to infer relative risk premia in beef margins and to simulate short run equilibrium risk effects results indicate that price risk has at times had substantial impacts on farm and retail beef prices and production

analysis of energy end use efficiency policy in spain abstract the implementation of saving measures and energy efficiency entails the need to evaluate achievements in terms of energy saving and spending this paper aims at analysing the effectiveness and economic efficiency of energy saving measures implemented in the energy savings and efficiency action plan 2008 2012 eap4 in spain for 2010 the lack of assessment related to energy savings achieved and public spending allocated by the eap4 justifies the need of this analysis the results show that the transport and building sectors seem to be the most important from the energy efficiency perspective although they did not reach the direct energy savings that were expected there is scope for reduction with the appropriate energy measures for the effectiveness indicator the best performance are achieved by public service agricultural and fisheries and building sectors while in terms of energy efficiency per monetary unit the best results are achieved by transport industry and agriculture sectors authors conclude that it is necessary that central regional and local administrations will get involved in order to get better estimates of the energy savings achieved and thus to affect the design of future energy efficiency measures at the lowest possible cost to the citizens

embodied energy and intensity in china s normal and processing exports and their driving forces 2005 2015 abstract international trade has important impacts on a country s energy consumption this paper first uses the time series 2005 2015 extended input output database to study china s embodied energy and intensity in both normal and processing exports structural decomposition analysis sda is then applied to analyze the driving forces behind the embodiment changes the empirical results show that china s energy embodied in both normal and processing exports first increased in 2005 2008 dropped in 2009 due to the global financial crisis and then rose again after 2009 and finally dropped in 2014 2015 the embodied energy in trade as a percentage of total energy consumption in china was relatively stable before and after the global financial crisis at around 28 over the 2005 2008 period and 22 over the 2009 2015 period the contribution of the aggregate embodied intensity aei of exports to china s aggregate energy intensity dropped from 30 in 2005 to 21 in 2015 among china s trading partners the united states japan and korea together accounted for around half of china s embodied energy and aei in exports in 2005 but their shares dropped to only one third in 2015 energy efficiency improvement played the key role in reducing the embodied energy and intensity in china s exports similar analysis can be applied to other regions and indicators

china s changing energy intensity trend a decomposition analysis china experienced a dramatic decline in energy intensity from the onset of economic reform in the late 1970s until 2000 but since then the rate of decline slowed and energy intensity actually increased in 2003 most previous studies found that most of the decline was due to technological change but disagreed on the role of structural change to the best of our knowledge no decomposition study has investigated the role of inter fuel substitution in the decline in energy intensity or the causes of the rise in energy intensity since 2000 in this paper we use logarithmic mean divisia index lmdi techniques to decompose changes in energy intensity in the period 1980 2003 we find that 1 technological change is confirmed as the dominant contributor to the decline in energy intensity 2 structural change at the industry and sector sub industry level actually increased energy intensity over the period of 1980 2003 although the structural change at the industry level was very different in the 1980s and in the post 1990 period 3 structural change involving shifts of production between sub sectors however decreased overall energy intensity 4 the increase in energy intensity since 2000 is explained by negative technological progress 5 inter fuel substitution is found to contribute little to the changes in energy intensity

using usda forecasts to estimate the price flexibility of demand for agricultural commodities we estimate the general equilibrium price flexibility of demand for corn and soybeans using monthly changes in expected supply published by the usda our estimates reflect the demand response to a one year supply shock and thus correspond to the inverse demand elasticity we derive the conditions under which our estimates are consistent and we show how demand flexibility varies by season inventory time horizon and demand composition at average inventory and without accounting for corn ethanol use we obtain price flexibility estimates of 1 35 and 1 03 for corn and soybeans respectively current corn ethanol production levels are associated with much larger absolute flexibilities for both commodities copyright 2012 oxford university press

the demand for road diesel in canada abstract in this paper we estimate the demand for road diesel in canada using aggregate annual data for the period 1986 2008 using a partial adjustment model pam we find short and long run price elasticities of 0 43 and 0 8 respectively however using cointegration techniques we obtain price elasticities that are 30 to 50 lower the short run elasticity with respect to gdp per capita is evaluated at 0 5 with the pam and 1 55 with cointegration in the long run both estimation techniques indicate an income elasticity around 0 9 our results underline the importance of controlling for the expansion of the primary sector which has been characterizing the canadian economy in the 2000s

demand contributors and driving factors of singapore s aggregate carbon intensities abstract singapore is an island city state it lacks conventional energy resources and is alternative energy disadvantaged yet its aggregate carbon intensity given by the ratio of carbon emissions to gdp dropped by 30 from 2005 to 2014 currently it has a relatively low carbon intensity using i o analysis we study singapore s aggregate carbon intensity and the factors contributing to its changes at different levels i e final demand sector and transmission levels it is found that domestic exports accounted for nearly two thirds of singapore s aggregate carbon intensity followed by private consumption and investment at the sectoral level the top three contributors were the petroleum petrochemical and land transport sectors improvements in emission intensity and final demand structure were major factors contributing to reductions in carbon intensity our study contributes to the literature in two aspects methodologically it deals with embodied emission intensity and analyzes its changes from the demand perspective this differs from most studies in the literature from the production perspective empirically the findings and policy implications are unique as they are applicable to a major city with urbanization taking place in many developing countries cites role in emissions and environmental sustainability are growing in importance but not many in depth analyses similar to our study have been reported

an empirical test of the incentive effects of deposit insurance the case of junk bonds at savings and loan associations this paper analyzes how financial markets reacted to s l diversification into junk bonds the authors report that junk bond holdings are positively correlated with both the volatility of s l equity returns and the interest rates paid on large cds next they examine the impact of junk bonds on equity returns for poorly capitalized s ls greater risk taking increases the value of deposit insurance and should lead to higher stock returns however a well capitalized institution that increases junk bond holdings should not experience stock price gains the authors find that this is the case for the sample of s ls they studied copyright 1994 by ohio state university press

deposit insurance regulation and moral hazard in the thrift industry evidence from the 1930 s this paper compares risk taking of insured and uninsured thrifts operating under strict and less strict regulatory regimes during the 1930 s analysis of balance sheet data indicates that while newly insured thrifts undertook less risk than their uninsured counterparts possibly because of screening by deposit insurance authorities moral hazard emerged gradually insured institutions operating under relatively permissive regulatory regimes were more prone to undertake risky lending activities than their more tightly regulated counterparts possibly because of screening by deposit insurance authorities moral hazard emerged gradually insured institutions operating under relatively premissive regulatory regimes were more prone to undertake risky lending activities than their more tightly regulated counterparts given the current system of deposit insurance the results suggest that effective regulation and supervision will play a key role in maintaining thrift stability in the 1990s copyright 1992 by american economic association

evidence of bank market discipline in subordinated debenture yields 1983 1991 we examine debenture yields over the period 1983 1991 to evaluate the market s sensitivity to bank specific risks and conclude that investors have rationally reflected changes in the government s policy toward absorbing private losses in the event of a bank failure although this evidence does not establish that market discipline can effectively control banking firms it soundly rejects the hypothesis that investors cannot rationally differentiate among the risks undertaken by the major u s banking firms an increasingly important issue in the regulation of financial institutions concerns the extent to which market investors can will recognize and control the risks of banking firms although the banking act of 1933 replaced some private risk bearing with federal deposit insurance legislators were reluctant to displace market discipline very extensively flood 1992 by the early 1980s however u s regulators had come to protect virtually all bank liability holders from credit losses most visibly at large banks which were deemed too big to fail sprague 1986 o hara and shaw 1990 this extension of the government safety net largely reflects a skepticism on the part of regulators that normal market forces could adequately identify and control bank risks while u s regulators have recently shown an increased willingness to let some bank investors bear default losses an official suspicion of the efficacy of market discipline remains widespread by contrast some prominent academic economists argue that market investors in bank debentures could provide timely and effective control over banking firms risk exposures and that the social cost of supervising banks would be lower if regulators ceded greater

a rational expectations model of time varying risk premia in commodities futures markets theory and evidence the intertemporal hedging theory is used to model the role of spot price risk measured by the variance in futures market risk premia the model gives a theoretical basis for treating the variance as serially correlated when commodities are storable t he rational expectations hypothesis implies that agents use the varianc e process to predict risk therefore the expected variance should be incorporated in equilibrium risk premia tests on data from four commodity markets show that variances do have predictable components however premia are related to expected variances in only one market copyright 1993 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

decompositions of fisher indexes abstract a fisher price or quantity index has no natural additive or multiplicative decomposition in view of the growing use of fisher indexes in official statistics however there is need for such decompositions this paper summarizes and compares the various proposals

the price forecasting performance of futures markets for live cattle and hogs a disaggregated analysis four hypotheses about the price forecasting performance of live cattle and hog futures are tested using disaggregated data live cattle futures are found to have inadequate forecasting performance for each hypothesis and do not provide better forecasts than lagged cash prices live hog futures perform well for three hypotheses but not when economic conditions are unstable hog futures provide better forecasts than lagged cash prices the analysis does not support the contention that these futures markets are agencies for rational price formation

efficient asset portfolios and the theory of normal backwardation a comment in a recent paper carter rausser and schmitz 1983 hereafter crs argue that previous studies of the risk premium on agricultural commodity futures contracts used incorrect proxies for the market index and consequently mismeasured the equilibrium risk premium on those contracts crs show that when an alternative market index is used to measure systematic risk the required risk premium is positive and of economically significant magnitude this result contradicts that of dusak 1973 and supports the notion of a generalized keynesian theory of normal backwardation the purpose of this comment is to argue that the market index constructed by crs is inappropriate and that their empirical results stem directly from the use of this index

quadratic arch models we introduce a new model for time varying conditional variances as the most general quadratic version possible within the arch class hence it encompasses all the existing restricted quadratic variance functions its properties are very similar to those of garch models but avoids some of their criticisms in univariate applications to daily u s and monthly u k stock market returns qarch adequately represents volatility and risk premia qarch is easy to incorporate in multivariate models to capture dynamic asymmetries that garch rules out such asymmetries are found in an empirical application of a conditional factor model to 26 u k sectorial stock returns

futures market efficiency in the soybean complex 13 1 rev division of agricultural sciences university of ifornla working paper no 139 r i j futures market efficiency in the soybean complex gordon c rausser and colin carter giannini foundation of agricultural economics l ibraili v im california agric u l tural elqieriment station giannini foundation of agricultural economics march 1982

pricing efficiency in the live cattle futures market further interpretation and measurement the pricing efficiency of the live cattle futures market is evaluated using out of sample forecasts from an econometric model an arima model and composite forecasting procedures in terms of the mean squared error criterion a necessary condition for market efficiency at least one of the models and frequently more forecasted more accurately than did the futures market however market simulation results based on the most accurate forecasts generated large risk return ratios these results do not show strong evidence of inefficiency and call into question the use of only mean squared errors to examine a market s pricing efficiency

measuring structural change and energy use decomposition of the us economy from 1997 to 2002 abstract the steadily increasing focus on energy production and consumption has led to growing research attention to patterns of energy use within economies of particular interest has been comparing the driving forces of increasing efficiency and economic structural change input output analysis ioa and decomposition analysis have become critical tools for performing such analyses this study analyzes aggregate energy use in the united states in 1997 and 2002 to discover the causes of changing energy usage and flows results show that rising population and household consumption acted to drive up energy demand but this driving force was offset by considerable structural change within the economy particularly related to a quickly increasing trade deficit in manufacturing goods thus while total energy intensity the ratio of energy use to economic output declined by approximately 12 between 1997 and 2002 changes in the structure of the economy explain this drop more than increased energy efficiency the level of aggregation at which decomposition analyses are run was identified as a crucially sensitive parameter for the determination of structural change and future studies should specifically address the amount of detail necessary to adequately measure changes in economic structure

energy intensity developments in 40 major economies structural change or technology improvement this study analyzes energy intensity trends and drivers in 40 major economies using the wiod database a novel harmonized and consistent dataset of input output table time series accompanied by environmental satellite data we use logarithmic mean divisia index decomposition to 1 study trends in global energy intensity between 1995 and 2007 2 attribute efficiency changes to either changes in technology or changes in the structure of the economy and 3 highlight sectoral and regional differences we first show that heterogeneity within each sector across countries is high these general trends within the sectors are dominated by large economies first and foremost the united states in most cases heterogeneity is lower within each country across the different sectors regarding changes of energy intensity at the country level improvements between 1995 and 2007 are largely attributable to technological change while structural change is less important in most countries notable exceptions are japan the united states australia taiwan mexico and brazil where a change in the industry mix was the main driver behind the observed energy intensity reduction

regional and sectoral attribution to percentage changes in the european divisia carbonization index abstract concerns on rising concentrations of co2 in the atmosphere and global warming have increased in recent years numerous environmental studies analyze the trends in co2 emissions and their main drivers in this paper we focus on the dynamics of the carbonization effect as a driving force for co2 emissions in the european union eu by implementing the sato vartia logarithmic mean divisia index method the trend of european emissions in the 2000 2010 period is factorized by both sector and country the analysis stresses the relevance of the carbonization and intensity effects in order to reduce emissions then based on so called attribution analysis we present a new theoretical framework that enables the attribution of both economic sector and individual eu member state to percentage changes in the carbonization index results show strong concentration of this reducing influence in some big economies in fact germany the united kingdom france and italy have contributed by more than 50 industry emerges as the most influential sector contributing to offset any improvement in the carbonization index our findings suggest strategies aiming at encouraging innovation technical change research on higher quality energies fuel substitution and installation of abatement technologies particularly in the industrial sector of large economies

firm and guarantor risk risk contagion and the interfirm spread among insured deposits we develop a model of third party guaranteed debt and show that interest rate premiums are multiplicatively related to firm and guarantor risk we apply the model to thrifts issuing cds guaranteed by the fslic and then estimate firm probabilities of insolvency and guarantor risk across 20 observed months this time period spans the insolvency of the guarantor followed by two recapitalizations the relative stability in firm risk across time offers no evidence of generalized risk contagion among firms we attribute elevated cd premiums and rate spreads to increases in guarantor risk rather than changes in firm risk on third party guaranteed debt the risk of both the issuing firm and guarantor determines the interest rate we show that the interest premium above the riskless treasury rate for guaranteed debt is multiplicatively related to two factors the probability of firm insolvency and the expected cost of an incomplete guarantor payoff we demonstrate that the presence of the guarantor obscures firm risk despite this our model provides the basis for measuring firm risk as well as guarantor risk we explain how different rates can exist on different firms debt with the same guarantor and how spreads among the different firms rates widen when the guarantor becomes riskier only a riskless guarantor causes the spreads to disappear our model fits nicely the case where savings and loans issue certificates of deposit cds and the guarantor is the government s deposit insuring agency the federal savings and loan insurance corporation fslic in this case the debt instrument the guarantor and the guarantee are the same for all the firms we apply the model over a 20 month period beginning in january 1987 when fol lowing hundreds of thrift failures the fslic announced its own insolvency the

trading grain now and then the relative performance of early grain futures markets popular hostilities toward futures trading in the united states date to the nineteenth century when many americans perceived then nascent grain exchanges as little more than gaming parlours that existed to serve the illegitimate aspirations of gamblers a depiction that if anything compromises the legitimacy of modern futures exchanges yet agricultural historians have largely praised the performance of these early markets which they contend were shaped by commercial interests who sought successfully to mitigate price risk in any case our understanding of how early futures markets performed is fragmented and so such claims remain largely unsubstantiated in a quantifiable sense even so futures price data are available for the late nineteenth century thanks to the chicago board of trade cbt which pioneered grain futures trading in the 1860s in this article i test and compare the performance of wheat corn and oats futures prices on the cbt from 1880 to 1890 and from 1997 to 2007 my results

decomposing the decoupling of co2 emissions and economic growth in brazil abstract this paper examines the occurrence of a decoupling between the growth rates in economic activity and co 2 emissions from energy consumption in brazil from 2004 to 2009 this decoupling was highlighted when economic activity and co 2 emissions moved in opposite directions in 2009 more generally we observe several periods of relative decoupling in brazil but not to the extent witnessed in 2009 to identify the determinants of emissions change we develop a decomposition model based on a log mean divisia index lmdi framework the results indicate that the carbon intensity and energy mix are the main determinant of emissions reduction in brazil between 2004 and 2009 modifications in the economy structure are also associated to emission mitigation in the period such evidence demonstrates similarities with events of decoupling registered for the interval 1980 1994 in brazil finds from brazil differ from observations in other countries in which improvement in energy intensity has been the most common determinant of emissions reduction

attribution of changes in divisia real energy intensity index an extension to index decomposition analysis abstract in this paper we extend the methodology of index decomposition analysis ida in energy studies by quantifying the contribution of individual attributes to the percent change of factors such as the real energy intensity index and structural change index we apply the proposed method to the real energy intensity index in the multiplicative logarithmic mean divisia index m lmdi approach a major ida technique since the m lmdi is based on geometric mean type indices and chain computation we need some appropriate method to cope with the difficulties that arise we present a numerical illustration of the proposed method using the energy consumption and real value added data of the us manufacturing industry and compare the results obtained by the fisher real energy intensity index

factors shaping aggregate energy intensity trend for industry energy intensity versus product mix understanding the mechanisms of change of energy consumption in industry has attracted much attention since the 1973 world oil crisis a popular line of research has been to decompose changes in the aggregate energy intensity of industry to give the relative impacts arising from energy intensity change and product mix change using a decomposition technique many empirical studies covering a large number of countries have been reported the main objective of this paper is to put together the empirical results reported in these studies in a coherent framework and identify possible systematic features of particular interest are the basic trends in this line of research the relative importance of energy intensity change and product mix change possible variations over time and between country groups in the energy impacts of these changes and inconsistencies in findings among studies an overview of the decomposition technique including its strengths weaknesses and role in industrial energy consumption studies is also presented

arch models properties estimation and testing abstract the aim of this survey paper is to provide an account of some of the important developments in the autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity arch model since its inception in a seminal paper by engle 1982 this model takes account of many observed properties of asset prices and therefore various interpretations can be attributed to it we start with the basic arch models and discuss their different interpretations arch models have been generalized in different directions to accommodate more and more features of the real world we provide a comprehensive treatment of many of the extensions of the original arch model next we discuss estimation and testing for arch models and note that these models lead to some interesting and unique problems there have been numerous applications and we mention some of these as we present different models the paper includes a glossary of the acronyms for the models we describe

extended divisia index decomposition of changes in energy intensity a case of korean manufacturing industry abstract this study aims to examine the energy efficiency of the manufacturing industry of korea by using the extended divisia index decomposition of choi and ang 2012 first we applied the sato vartia index decomposition to the energy intensity of the manufacturing industry in korea second we attributed the growth rate of aggregate energy intensity to 10 sub manufacturing industries through two channels real energy intensity and structural change the result of the decomposition illustrates that the aggregate energy intensity index decreased in the period 1981 2010 the index decomposition analysis demonstrates that real energy intensity decreased by 85 85 whereas structural change increased energy intensity by 69 37 over the same period of time the negative effect of structural change is partly a result of the increasing portion of energy intensive industry in manufacturing the result reflects that industrial structure in korea can be an important aspect for improving energy efficiency

co2 emissions per value added in exports of china a comparison with usa based on generalized logarithmic mean divisia index decomposition abstract this study first analyzes co 2 emissions per value added epv in exports of china during 1995 2009 and compares it with that of usa second a generalized logarithmic mean divisia index glmdi method is proposed to decompose the epv gaps between china and usa into five effects this method generalizes existing lmdi methods and makes the multiplicative decomposition of a sum of several terms possible then attribution analysis on value added coefficient effect is conducted results show that aggregate epv of china s exports is 4 20 mt billion us dollars in 1995 which decreases to 2 48 in 2009 for usa it is 0 66 0 33 respectively epv of china s exports is several times greater than that of usa at sectoral level industrial sectors and transport sectors are top sectors with large epv in china s exports which corresponds to the case of usa epv gaps of the service sectors between china and usa have become increasingly prominent since 2000 decomposition results show that emission coefficients value added coefficients and input output structure are the main driving factors of the expanding epv gaps between china and usa attribution analysis on value added coefficient effect the fastest growing effect shows that electrical and optical sector has been the largest contributor to epv gaps between china and usa resulting from value added coefficient effect since 1998 and its effect sharply increases during 1995 2009 policy implications derived are finally discussed

energy conservation and co2 emission reduction in china s 11th five year plan a performance evaluation in the 11th five year plan fyp 2005 2010 the chinese government initiated a series of energy saving and emission reduction policies in many key fields in response to environmental pollution and climate change this paper quantitatively evaluates the performance of energy conservation and co2 emission reduction in this period the impact of these policies and potentials by integrating the contributions of energy conversion efficiency and energy utilization efficiency improvement industrial restructuring fuel mix shift and renewable energy development in a unified framework as a first attempt to introduce energy conversion efficiency improvement into a decomposition approach comprehensive and specific policies are summarized as a policy list to be investigated the results show that energy intensity and conversion efficiency effects were mainly responsible for driving down energy consumption by 637 4 mtce and 85 4 mtce respectively and they reduced co2 emissions by 1345 3 mt and 243 8 mt respectively due to a significant improvement in the 11th fyp period most of the contributions made by the conversion efficiency effect 94 come from thermal power generation and the emission coefficient effect reduced co2 emissions by 17 4 mt through developing renewable energy economic growth is still the biggest driver of energy consumption and increasing emissions while industrial restructuring and fuel mix shift effects contributed relatively little developing renewable energy and promoting economic restructuring to limit the increase of energy intensive sectors are still the main challenges and the next policy focus to achieve the targets for energy saving and carbon emission reduction in the 12th five year plan

energy intensity in road freight transport of heavy goods vehicles in spain abstract this paper examines the factors that have influenced the energy intensity trend of the spanish road freight transport of heavy goods vehicles over the period 1996 2012 this article aims to contribute to a better understanding of these factors and to inform the design of measures to improve energy efficiency in road freight transport the paper uses both annual single period and chained multi period multiplicative lmdi ii decomposition analysis the results suggest that the decrease in the energy intensity of spanish road freight in the period is explained by the change in the real energy intensity index lower energy consumption per tonne kilometre transported which is partially offset by the behaviour of the structural index greater share in freight transport of those commodities the transportation of which is more energy intensive the change in energy intensity is analysed in more depth by quantifying the contribution of each commodity through the attribution of changes in divisia indices

an examination of the necessary and sufjicient conditions for market eflciency the case of hogs the pricing efficiency of the live hog futures market is examined utilizing both necessary and sufficient conditions out of sample forecasts from an econometric model an arima model and a composite forecasting model are compared with the forward prices of the futures market within a mean squared error framework at least one model and frequently all of them forecast more accurately than the futures market a necessary condition for market efficiency the sufficient condition is assessed using simulated market trading strategies based o n the most accurate model forecasts results suggest that informational inefficiencies exist in the live hog futures market

bigger cakes with fewer ingredients a comparison of material use of the world economy the amount of materials used worldwide in production and consumption increased by 56 from 1995 to 2008 using an index decomposition analysis based on the logarithmic mean divisia index we investigate the drivers of material use both on a global and a country scale we exploit a panel dataset of 40 countries accounting for 75 of worldwide material extraction and 88 of gdp from 1995 to 2008 the results show that economic growth and structural change towards material intensive countries explain most of the growth in global material use slight gains in material efficiency and falling importance of material intensive sectors have decelerating effects the country level analysis reveals substantial heterogeneity some nations exhibit stable or falling material use while it increases notably in most countries improving material efficiency is able to dampen growth of material use in important industrializing nations like china or india

multiplicative structural decomposition analysis of aggregate embodied energy and emission intensities abstract aggregate intensity indicators such as the ratio of a country s energy and emissions to its gdp are often used by researchers and policymakers to study energy and environmental performance this paper analyzes the relationship between energy or emissions and value added or gdp from a different viewpoint namely from the demand rather than the production perspective using the input output i o framework the aggregate embodied intensity aei defined as the ratio of embodied energy or emissions to embodied value added can be defined at the aggregate final demand category and sectoral levels the total aggregate intensity can be presented as a weighted sum of the aeis at the final demand category or sectoral level changes of the aei at different levels can be decomposed to identify the driving forces using multiplicative sda a study using the latest 2007 and 2012 datasets of china indicates that a its aggregate intensity of co 2 emissions was mainly determined by the aei in investment and b the emission intensity effect generally contributed the most to the aei ratio changes at different levels the proposed framework can be applied to other aggregate intensity indicators and extended to multi country region analysis

what drive the changes in china s energy consumption and intensity during 12th five year plan period abstract during the 12th five year plan period 2011 2015 the chinese government has released a series of energy conservation plans to launch and deepen the transition in the energy use particularly the dual control of the energy consumption and energy intensity was firstly emphasized this paper intends to explore the targeted and effective energy policy implications through investigating the drivers of changes in energy consumption intensity of china during the 12th five year plan period under the input output framework the embodied energy consumptions intensities by final demand category were estimated at aggregate sector level and the total energy consumption intensity was decomposed using the additive multiplicative structural decomposition analysis among the final demand categories china s energy consumption intensity was mainly contributed by the investment followed by the household consumption according to the sda results china s total energy consumption increased by 28 8 of which the energy intensity effect and the investment effect were the most retardant and accelerator respectively at the same time china s total aggregate energy intensity decreased by 16 0 of which the energy intensity effect and the household consumption effect were the most retardant and accelerator respectively in detail the key sectors with respect to the critical effects were picked out above all policy implications are discussed for achieving the energy goals during the 13th five year plan period and launching the energy revolution during the 14th five year plan period

decomposition of aggregate energy intensity changes in two measures ratio and difference decomposition analysis has been popular in energy demand analysis and has been found useful in policy related studies past studies include decomposition of changes of an aggregate indicator measured in terms of either ratios or differences into several pre defined contributing factors aggregate indicators that are often studied include total national energy demand energy demand in specific consuming sectors aggregate energy intensity and energy related carbon dioxide emissions however the possible linkages between the ratio measure and the difference measure including their decomposition results have seldom been analysed this paper examines this issue using the divisia decomposition technique and a unique pair of decomposition formulae numerical examples based on singapore and taiwan industrial electricity demand data are presented

analysis and decomposition of energy consumption in the chilean industry abstract with rising energy costs and climate change concerns energy efficiency will be important in maintaining competitiveness and reducing the environmental impact of industrial activities in this paper we study the chilean industrial sector which is the largest consumer of energy within the country energy demand and co 2 emissions in chile have grown rapidly in recent years while energy supply is mostly imported and subject to disruption therefore it is important to understand energy consumption in this sector and determine which sub sectors have the greatest potential to reduce energy consumption we used the index decomposition analysis ida applying the logarithmic mean divisia index method i lmdi i to quantify the impact of diverse driving factors on energy consumption furthermore a panel data analysis was used to determine whether there are differences in energy intensity across firms with different characteristics our results show that energy intensity has risen over time although energy consumption remains stable this fact supports the idea that energy efficiency policies could play an important role for the industrial sector additionally energy consumption and energy intensity follow different patterns in each sub sector therefore we conclude that the application of differentiated sectoral policies is preferable over a single global policy

deposit insurance and the risk premium in bank deposit rates abstract by placing a ceiling on the amount of possible depositor loss deposit insurance should result in a lower deposit risk premium however this effect may be modified if either the insurance promise has low credibility or the moral hazard incentives generated by deposit insurance result in a greater probability of bank default using financial and institutional panel data from thirteen countries we find that the risk premium is over 40 basis points higher on average in uninsured countries than in countries that offer insurance up to some pre specified maximum however the risk premium has a non linear relationship with the level of maximum insurance coverage suggesting that the market recognizes the moral hazard potential moreover the effect of deposit insurance on the risk premium is weaker in countries with strong creditor rights consistent with the view that investors view the latter as a substitute for explicit deposit insurance

market discipline by thrift depositors this paper tests for the presence of depositor discipline by examining the effect of depository institutions risk on the pricing and growth of uninsured deposits the study analyzes a large panel of thrifts that includes detailed information on interest rate schedules this information allows the authors to develop a time consistent risk profile for thrifts their empirical findings support the presence of market discipline riskier banks are found to pay higher interest rates but attract smaller amounts of uninsured deposits the authors also find that qualitative results are similar for fully insured deposits although statistical significance is substantially lower

decomposing road freight energy use in the united kingdom applying the techniques of decomposition analysis we estimate the relative contribution of ten variables termed key ratios plus gdp to the change in uk road freight energy use over the period 19892004 inclusive the results are best interpreted as an estimate of the percentage growth in energy consumption that would have resulted from the change in the relevant factor e g length of haul had the other factors remained unchanged the results demonstrate that the main factor contributing to the decoupling of uk road freight energy consumption from gdp was the decline in the value of domestically manufactured goods relative to gdp over the period 19892004 this largely offset the effect of increases in gdp on road freight energy consumption while the decline in domestic manufacturing was to some extent displaced by increases in imports the net effect of these supply factors together with shifts in the commodity mix has been to reduce uk road freight energy consumption by 30 1 the net effect on global carbon dioxide co2 emissions is likely to be somewhat less beneficial since many freight movements associated with the manufacture of imported goods have simply been displaced to other countries

factorial decomposition of co2 emissions a generalized divisia index approach abstract this paper introduces a novel approach to estimating the impact of the major factors driving co 2 emissions gdp energy consumption population their carbon intensities and other related indicators that may be chosen arbitrarily the suggested approach is based on the generalization of the divisia index to interconnected factors the approach also extends the kaya identity by explicitly including gross domestic product and energy consumption a computer program in r language aimed at automating the calculations is supplied factorial analysis of the united states and china s co 2 emissions is provided as an example of application

returns to individual traders in agricultural futures markets skill or luck using individual trader data from the commodity futures trading commission s cftc large trader reporting system ltrs for the period january 2000 to september 2009 this article investigates whether noncommercial traders in the corn live cattle and coffee futures markets persist in making profits two out of sample measures of skill a winner and a loser ranking test and a top and a bottom decile test are used to analyse the ability of traders to consistently perform well at monthly quarterly and annual time horizons the findings identify significant persistence in rankings traders in the top half of the profit distribution in a time period tend to stay in the top half in the next period differences in magnitude of profitability between the top and bottom deciles also provide support that persistent skill exists among the top 10 of traders detailed examination of annual rankings for those traders who were most continuously in the markets further reveals persistence in profits for a smaller s

a multi region multi sector decomposition and attribution analysis of aggregate carbon intensity in china from 2000 to 2015 abstract index decomposition analysis ida has been used to analyze driving forces of aggregate carbon intensity aci however previous studies mostly explained changes in aci from either sectoral or regional perspective but rarely looked into driving forces of aci from both sectoral and regional perspectives under a unified and consistent framework to fill the research gap this study proposed a multi region multi sector decomposition and attribution approach to analyze driving forces of aci from both sectoral and regional perspectives the empirical results in china show that the aci declined by 33 from 2000 to 2015 from the sectoral perspective the decline can be mainly attributed to the significant energy efficiency improvement in six high energy intensive industries however the rapid growth in electricity consumption especially in chemicals and iron and steel and the expansion of iron and steel industry during 2000 2005 greatly offset the negative effect from energy efficiency from the regional perspective the aci decline can be primarily due to an extensive improvement in energy efficiency in most regions on the contrary the increasing dependency on coal particularly in shandong inner mongolia and guangdong and the increased share of carbon intensive industries in some provinces such as guangxi and sichuan markedly increased aci based on the results the effectiveness of underlying sectoral and regional level policies and measures implemented for aci reduction in china were evaluated

decomposition of aggregate carbon intensity for freight trends from 10 oecd countries for the period 1971 1993 abstract historical patterns of aggregate carbon intensity from freight are different than those from other sectors while aggregate carbon intensity declined for all other sectors aggregate carbon intensity for freight increased the adaptive weighted divisia rolling base year index specification is applied to carbon emissions from the freight sector of 10 oecd countries for the period 1970 1993 increases in aggregate carbon intensity for nine of the countries range from less than 20 to over 150 and may be primarily attributed to shifts in modal structure toward more carbon intensive modes these increases in aggregate carbon intensity are driven primarily by an increase in activity which parallels the growth in gdp furthermore changes in fuel price and vehicle purchase taxes do not appear to be effective instruments for reducing energy consumption for this end use alternative policy options including less carbon intensive fuels and technologies and reduced congestion appear to be better choices

time varying risk premium further evidence in agricultural futures markets research has provided mixed results regarding the presence of a time varying risk premium in agricultural futures markets in this article we test for the presence of a time varying risk premium focusing on the properties of the underlying data our results show that accounting for the structural break in the 1970s plays a key role in the findings in contrast to recent research we find only limited evidence of time varying risk premium for a two month horizon the corn soybean meal and hog markets show no signs of a risk premium while very weak support for a time varying premium emerges in live cattle for the four month horizon no evidence of a time varying risk premium appears for any of the markets