human capital inequality life expectancy and economic growth this article presents a model in which inequality affects per capita income when individuals decide to invest in education taking into account their life expectancy which depends to a large extent on the human capital of their parents our results show the existence of multiple steady states depending on the initial distribution of education the low steady state is a poverty trap in which children raised in poor families have low life expectancy and work as non educated workers the empirical evidence suggests that the life expectancy mechanism explains a major part of the relationship between inequality and human capital accumulation increases in life expectancy and human capital accumulation have accelerated since the post world war ii period in most parts of the world however in spite of the convergence in life expectancy across countries during this period see for example becker et al 2005 in 2000 there was still an immense gap between the rich and the poor world life expectancy was 78 years in oecd countries but only 47 years in sub saharan africa where the gap with rich countries is increasing nowadays due to aids being widespread likewise the striking disparities in human capital are also evident whereas the secondary school enrolment rate was almost 100 in rich countries more than 70 of children in sub saharan africa were not enrolled in secondary schooling and therefore entered the labour market as unskilled workers from childhood these disparities in schooling are also accompanied by huge differences in the distribution of education thus the human capital gini coefficient in sub saharan africa 0 56 is twice as high as that of oecd countries 0 21 in this article we argue that high human capital inequality low life expectancy and low human capital accumulation rates reinforce each other and may explain the persistence of poverty in a great part of the world

cointegration and the us term structure abstract using the maximum likelihood analysis of cointegration developed by johansen 1988 1991 we test the cointegration implications of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure on a sample of us pure discount yields by using this approach we are able to analyze systems of more than two interest rates simultaneously as opposed to most previous studies which examine interest rates only in pairs one of the main results is that for the period 1952 1987 the cointegration implications generally seem to hold

identifying the effects of a lender of last resort on financial markets lessons from the founding of the fed abstract we use the founding of the federal reserve to identify the effects of a lender of last resort we examine stock return and interest rate volatility during september and october when markets were vulnerable because of financial stringency from the harvest stock volatility fell by 40 and interest rate volatility by more than 70 following the monetary regime change the drop is insignificant if major panic years are omitted from the analysis however because business cycle downturns occurred in the same year as financial crises our results suggest that the existence of the federal reserve reduced liquidity risk

population concentration urbanization and demographic transition abstract this paper investigates how urbanization and demographic transition interrelate with each other via merits agglomeration economies and demerits congestion diseconomies of population concentration it reveals the mechanism by which agglomeration economies and congestion diseconomies affect the fertility rate furthermore analysis also shows that by assuming declines in infant and child mortality rate the model developed in this paper can replicate the following well known historical patterns i advances in urbanization ii rises in the wage rate iii declines in fertility and iv rises followed by declines in the population growth rate the inverted u shaped demographic transition

who pays the bar tab beer consumption and economic growth in the united states what drug provides americans with the greatest pleasure and the greatest pain the answer hands down is alcohol the pain comes not only from drunk driving and lost lives but also addiction family strife crime violence poor health and squandered human potential young and old drinkers and abstainers alike all are affected every american is paying for alcohol abuse phillip j cook paying the tab the costs and benefits of alcohol control 2007 i introduction alcohol consumption has severe social and economic consequences lost productivity disability early death crime family neglect personality deterioration to name a few cook 2007 at the individual level the effects of alcohol consumption have been explored considerably by researchers in different fields including economics medicine public health criminology and sociology however few studies have examined the economic impact of alcohol use at the aggregate level probably due to the research deficiency regarding its aggregate effects some disagreement exists about the overall net benefits of alcohol use on the one hand scholars who have done extensive research on individual outcomes claim that the overall costs of alcohol use outweigh its benefits for example cook and moore 2002 120 state in their review article the production and sale of alcoholic beverages account for a small share of national product in the united states and in other advanced economies however the deleterious effects of alcohol consumption on health and safety constitute a substantial economic burden reducing our overall standard of living on the other hand organizations formed by the producers and distributors of alcoholic beverages claim that the alcoholic beverage industry contributes significantly to the u s economy through job creation and tax revenues according to beer serves america 2011 an organization sponsored by the beer institute and the national beer wholesalers association nbwa directly and indirectly the beer industry employs approximately 1 8 million americans paying them over 71 billion in wages and benefits the industry pays over 44 billion in business personal and consumption taxes including 5 3 billion in excise taxes and 5 8 billion in sales gross receipts and other taxes 1 similarly the distilled spirits council of the united states discus 1999 the national trade association representing america s leading distillers and about 70 of all distilled spirits brands sold in the united states states that the alcohol beverage industry is a major contributor to the u s economy through job creation wages and taxes 2 room and jernigan 2000 point out that the benefits reaped from the alcohol industry in terms of economic development should be weighed against the negative impacts on economic development in addition to public health they go on to say that alcohol s contribution to total production can vary tremendously from country to country generating 3 of total manufacturing value added in argentina or the netherlands but as little as 0 07 in iran aside from the aforementioned contributions of the alcohol industry to the economy often cited by the industry itself supply side efforts also play a role in the consumption of alcohol this can be done through influencing government regulation of the market for alcohol and selling cheap alcohol in bulk which has a devastating public health impact stockwell and crosbie 2001 indeed the economic burden of excessive alcohol consumption has been found to be substantial recently estimated at 223 5 billion bouchery et al 2011 although a few studies have examined the impact of macroeconomic conditions on drinking prevalence and patterns such as those by ruhm and black 2002 and ruhm 1995 we are not aware of any studies exploring the impact of alcohol consumption on economic growth

ecb repo rate setting during the financial crisis abstract i estimate a reaction function for the ecb using an ordered logit model for the period 1999 2009 allowing for a smooth transition from one set of parameters to another i detect a rapid change in the middle of 2008

will the new keynesian macroeconomics resurrect the is lm model the is lm model has no greater prospect of being a viable analytical vehicle for macroeconomics in the 1990s than the ford pinto has of being a sporty reliable car for the 1990s because of its treatment of expectations the is lm model as traditionally constructed and currently used is a hazardous base on which to build positive theories of business fluctuations and to undertake policy analysis to simplify economic reality sufficiently to use the is lm model as an analytical tool economists must essentially ignore expectations we now know that this simplification eliminates key determinants of aggregate demand the last two decades of research have taught economists that the assumption of rational expectations is a powerful part of economic explanations of individual and market behavior ranging from consumption and investment dynamics to pricing of stocks and bonds the emphasis on expectations in the macro model is the end result of a process of building microeconomic underpinnings that was initiated in the 1950s and 1960s when the goal was to develop dynamic theoretical foundations for the is and lm schedules inevitably consideration of dynamic choice pushed the question of expectations to the forefront as a result most of the equations of the is lm model are now viewed as summarizing purposeful economic behavior in which choices over time play a central role however as we will see this finding means there is no way to maintain traditional uses of the is lm model

interest rates expectations and the credibility of the bank of spain the purpose of the paper is to pinpoint the date of the change of monetary policy regime which occurred in spain during the year 1984 when it moved away from controlling monetary aggregates towards interest rate targeting the most likely date for the change is estimated and surprisingly there is evidence that agents learned about the new intermediate target quite rapidly a week after the change the term structure of interest rates showed how market agents attributed much more informational content to interest rate changes than they had previously two types of transitions are tried a one step and a gradual logistic swithing function

how amsterdam got fiat money abstract a fiat money system was introduced in the seventeenth century by a prominent public bank of the time the bank of amsterdam employing data from the bank s archives we show that bank money became a more attractive transactions medium following a 1683 policy change which unbundled the bank s account balances from a right to redeem these balances in coin balances not matched by a redemption right became fiat this change also stabilized the value of bank money as a unit of account freed the bank from defensive open market operations and promoted seigniorage collection

life expectancy and human capital investments evidence from maternal mortality declines longer life expectancy should encourage human capital accumulation since a longer time horizon increases the value of investments that pay out over time previous work has been unable to determine the empirical importance of this life expectancy effect due to the difficulty of isolating it from other effects of health on education we examine a sudden drop in maternal mortality risk in sri lanka between 1946 and 1953 which creates a sharp increase in life expectancy for school age girls without contemporaneous effects on health and which also allows for the use of boys as a control group using additional geographic variation we find that the 70 reduction in maternal mortality risk over the sample period increased female life expectancy at age 15 by 4 1 female literacy by 2 5 and female years of education by 4 0 authors

mortality reductions educational attainment and fertility choice this paper develops a model where reductions in mortality are the main force behind economic development the model generates a pattern of changes similar to the demographic transition where gains in life expectancy at birth are followed by reductions in fertility and increases in the rate of human capital accumulation the onset of the transition is characterized by a critical level of life expectancy at birth which marks the movement of the economy from a malthusian equilibrium to an equilibrium with investments in human capital and the possibility of long run growth

malaria suitability urbanization and persistence evidence from china over more than 2000 years abstract we show that the climatic potential for plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission constituted a locational fundamental that influenced the spatial distribution of urbanization since the early start of the southward expansion of the han chinese around 200 bce this effect is still detectable in today s distribution of urbanization and economic activity even though the risk of malaria falciparum has been successfully eliminated we do not find any indication of convergence between high and low malaria potential regions after eradication our identification strategy relies on a climate based measure of plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission intensity which is fitted to experimental data on mosquito and parasite development from laboratory studies this measure is exogenous with respect to human population densities

discrimination and the unemployment durations of white and black males in this study we develop a model to decompose the longer unemployment duration of blacks into discriminatory and non discriminatory components by extending becker s theory of discrimination to job search theory the discriminatory component is seen to be the result of two separate effects first a white treatment advantage shortens the unemployment duration of whites because they receive more frequent and higher wage offers than would prevail in the absence of discrimination for working alongside blacks second a black treatment disadvantage lengthens the jobless spell of blacks because blacks receive lower wage offers than would prevail without discrimination as discriminating employers extract quasi rents from their labour we estimate our model using date from the cps displaced workers survey the results show that 3 81 of the 4 58 weeks longer unemployment spell for blacks is due to discrimination with 3 11 weeks resulting from the white treatment advantage and 0 7 weeks emanating from the black

sources of the great moderation a time series analysis of gdp subsectors recent work finds evidence that the volatility of the u s economy fell dramatically around the first quarter of 1984 we trace the timing of this so called great moderation across many subsectors of the economy in order to better understand its root cause we find that the interest rate sensitive sectors generally experience a much earlier volatility decline than other large sectors of the economy the changes in federal reserve stabilization policies that occurred during the early 1980s support the view that an improved monetary policy played an important role in stabilizing real economic activity we find only mild evidence that good luck was important and little evidence to support the claim that improved inventory management was important

shifts in us federal reserve goals and tactics for monetary policy a role for penitence during the fi rst period starting in the mid 1920s the federal reserve offi cial during the fi rst period starting in the mid 1920s the federal reserve offi cial policy was to support high quality bank lending but not speculative lending this policy was to support high quality bank lending but not speculative lending this goal was set aside once in 1927 in an episode that many observers then blamed for goal was set aside once in 1927 in an episode that many observers then blamed for the economic collapse that followed the fi nancial crash of 1929 the fed was then the economic collapse that followed the fi nancial crash of 1929 the fed was then reluctant to increase the funds available to banks through the early 1930s even as reluctant to increase the funds available to banks through the early 1930s even as the great depression ravaged the economy the fed s concern with the volume and the great depression ravaged the economy the fed s concern with the volume and quality of lending in the setting of monetary policy did eventually wither however quality of lending in the setting of monetary policy did eventually wither however this only seems to have happened after the publication of friedman and schwartz this only seems to have happened after the publication of friedman and schwartz 1963 a revisionist history of the great depression that blamed its depth on the 1963 a revisionist history of the great depression that blamed its depth on the fed s inappropriate focus on productive lending fed s inappropriate focus on productive lending in the second period after the experience of post world war ii infl ation the in the second period after the experience of post world war ii infl ation the federal reserve in the 1950s was highly concerned with infl ation and was willing to federal reserve in the 1950s was highly concerned with infl ation and was willing to raise interest rates and bring on recessions to nip even modest infl ation rates in the raise interest rates and bring on recessions to nip even modest infl ation rates in the bud this brought withering criticism for the federal reserve on the grounds that bud this brought withering criticism for the federal reserve on the grounds that the recessions of 1957 and 1960 had been unnecessary by the mid 1960s some fed the recessions of 1957 and 1960 had been unnecessary by the mid 1960s some fed offi cials seem to have developed an aversion to creating recessions as a method of offi cials seem to have developed an aversion to creating recessions as a method of

interest rate targeting abstract the paper develops a model in which the monetary authority successfully targets the nominal interest rate while also holding down the forecast variance of the price level the latter objective pins down the extent of monetary accommodation to shifts in the demand for money and other shocks and thereby makes determinate the levels of money and prices at each date empirical evidence for the united states suggests that the model s predictions accord reasonably well with observed behavior for nominal interest rates growth rates of the monetary base and rates of inflation

disease and development the effect of life expectancy on economic growth we exploit the major international health improvements from the 1940s to estimate the effect of life expectancy on economic performance we construct predicted mortality using preintervention mortality rates from various diseases and dates of global interventions predicted mortality has a large impact on changes in life expectancy starting in 1940 but no effect before 1940 using predicted mortality as an instrument we find that a 1 percent increase in life expectancy leads to a 1 7 2 percent increase in population life expectancy has a much smaller effect on total gdp however consequently there is no evidence that the large increase in life expectancy raised income per capita

international interest rate linkages and the exchange rate regime abstract return differentials between instruments denominated in canadian dollars and instruments denominated in american dollars are investigated the study compares the properties of return differentials in the period of fixed exchange rates during the 1960s and in the period of flexible exchange rates during the 1970s and 1980s both real and nominal return differentials are investigated the results indicate that the change in exchange rate regime is not associated with a change in the average level of ex post return differentials between canada and the united states models which predict ex ante return differentials from available information in a rational expectations framework show a surprisingly large amount of structural stability across the regime change the major impact of the flexible exchange rate regime is on the variance of ex post return differentials and not on the average level of ex post or ex ante return differentials jel e42 e58 g15

a model of the political economy of the united states we develop and test a model of joint determination of economic growth and national election results in the united states the formal model which combines developments in the rational choice analysis of the behavior of economic agents and voters leads to a system of equations in which the dependent variables are the growth rate and the vote shares in presidential and congressional elections our estimates support the theoretical claims that growth responds to unanticipated policy shifts and that voters use both on year and midterm elections to balance the two parties on the other hand we find no support for rational retrospective voting we do reconfirm in a fully simultaneous framework the naive retrospective voting literature s finding that the economy has a strong effect on presidential voting we find congressional elections unaffected by the economy except as transmitted by presidential coattails

limited life expectancy human capital and health investments human capital theory predicts that life expectancy will impact human capital attainment we estimate this relationship using variation in life expectancy driven by huntington disease an inherited neurological disorder we compare investments for individuals who have ex ante identical risks of hd but differ in disease realization individuals with the hd mutation complete less education and job training the elasticity of demand for college attendance with respect to life expectancy is around 1 0 we relate this to cross country and over time differences in education we use smoking and cancer screening data to test the corollary that health capital responds to life expectancy

credibility of a new monetary regime the currency board in bulgaria abstract low credibility reflected in persistent expectations of high inflation is the usual suspect in costly disinflation efforts a currency board is a monetary regime that attempts to establish credibility by reducing uncertainty regarding the inflation preferences of the policymaker and the environment in which the policymaker operates this paper uses unique survey data from bulgaria and finds that expected inflation is indeed lowered by the prospect of a currency board but to a different degree for different agents priors of the type of the policymaker and familiarity with the operation of the currency board contribute to explaining the differences

the adjustment of expectations to a change in regime a study of the founding of the federal reserve the founding of the federal reserve system in 1914 led to a substantial change in the behavior of nominal interest rates the authors examine the timing of this change and the speed with which it was effected they then use data on the term structure of interest rates to determine how expectations responded their results indicate that the change in policy regime was rapid and that individuals quickly understood the new environment they were facing copyright 1987 by american economic association

early mortality declines at the dawn of modern growth we explore the hypothesis that demographic changes which began in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries are at the root of the acceleration in growth rates at the dawn of the modern age during this period life tables for geneva and venice show a decline in adult mortality french marriage registers reveal an important increase in literacy historians measure an acceleration of economic growth we develop an endogenous growth model with a realistic survival law in which rising longevity increases individual incentives to invest in education and fosters growth we quantitatively estimate that the observed improvements in adult mortality account for 70 of the growth acceleration in the pre industrial age

liquidity risk bank networks and the value of joining the federal reserve system reducing systemic liquidity risk related to seasonal swings in loan demand was one reason for the founding of the federal reserve system existing evidence on the post federal reserve increase in the seasonal volatility of aggregate lending and the decrease in seasonal interest rate swings suggests that it succeeded in that mission nevertheless less than 8 percent of state chartered banks joined the federal reserve in its first decade some have speculated that nonmembers could avoid higher costs of the federal reserve s reserve requirements while still obtaining access indirectly to the federal reserve discount window through contacts with federal reserve members we find that individual bank attributes related to the extent of banks ability to mitigate seasonal loan demand variation predict banks decisions to join the federal reserve consistent with the notion that banks could obtain indirect access to the discount window through interbank transfers we find that a bank s position within the interbank network as a user or provider of liquidity predicts the timing of its entry into the federal reserve system and the effect of federal reserve membership on its lending behavior we also find that indirect access to the federal reserve was not as good as direct access federal reserve member banks saw a greater increase in lending than nonmember banks

economic development and the escape from high mortality summary this paper studies the characteristic features of the escape from high mortality as recorded from the historical experience of northwestern europe and from the current experience of less developed countries the paper documents stylized facts of mortality change and measures the contribution of economic development represented by income per capita to the mortality decline during the second half of the 20th century the paper argues that improvements in economic conditions since the 18th century are an important factor behind the decline in death rates in developed countries and in the subsequent reduction of death rates in less developed countries we show that economic development lowers mortality through differential effects in infectious disease mortality and that quantitatively income growth is able to account for between one third and one half of the recent mortality decline

interest rate seasonals and the federal reserve it is widely believed that one of the federal reserve s first important monetary policy achievements was the deseasonalization of interest rates the federal reserve supposedly accomplished this by introducing appropriate seasonal movements into the supplies of currency and high powered money this view implicitly assumes that there was no interaction between american and foreign financial markets two findings are reported that challenge this conventional view first interest rate seasonals disappeared in the united states and other countries at approximately the same time second interest rate seasonal ended approximately 3 years before the seasonal movements of currency and high powered money changed

the bond price support program as a change in policy regimes evidence from the term structure of interest rates recently mankiw miron and weil 1987 argued that a change in policy regimes generally affects the public s expectations of future interest rates to illustrate this influence they compare the operation of the gold standard with the post gold standard regime in the united states they find that nominal short term interest rates were mean reverting before 1914 but became nonstationary after the creation of the federal reserve system we extend mankiw miron and weil s analysis by noting that the period from 1914 to the present cannot be characterized as one uninterrupted episode of policy discretion the united states temporarily abandoned discretion for a rule in the 1940s the fed and treasury agreed in april 1942 that the fed would adjust federal reserve credit in a manner that would produce relatively low market rates on longterm securities in particular the fed committed itself to support twenty year government bond prices at a level consistent with a 2 5 percent interest rate ceiling we investigate the possibility that the bond price support program of the 1940s conditioned the behavior of short term interest rates in a predictable way according to the expectation theory of the term structure a binding long term interest rate ceiling implies that an increase in the current short rate must cause the sum of the innovation and the change in future expected rates to be zero otherwise the long rate rises above the ceiling and the public perceives a violation of the bond rate commitment placing a binding ceiling on long term interest rates tends to make short term interest rates mean reverting

the federal reserve amendments of 1917 the beginning of a seasonal note issue policy the federal reserve adopted a policy of smoothing the seasonal behavior of interest rates after the amendments of 1917 these amendments reduced the collateral requirements for notes issued and thereby increased note issue capability notes in circulation more than doubled from june to december 1917 these amendments were passed to assist with war related financing as their timing coincided with the entry of the united states into world war i the smoothing of interest rates seasonals between 1914 and 1917 was not due to the founding of the federal reserve system but rather to trade related gold flows copyright 1991 by ohio state university press

evolutionary voter sophistication and political business cycles the concept of the sophisticated electorate is central to many contemporary political economic models however no existing studies have yet clarified how voters could develop a sophisticated way of evaluating economic performance this study suggests a transitional hypothesis that removes the constraint that voters have prior knowledge about the macroeconomic environment and the true economic intent of the incumbent government the hypothesis permits behavioral innovation from learning and predicts that the evolutionary process toward sophistication may be triggered by socially suboptimal political business cycles that reveal the self serving characteristic of the government the empirical analyses using recent japanese experiences show that japanese political support behavior shifted from naivete to sophistication in the early 1970s after political manipulation occurred in the 1969 and 1972 parliamentary elections

demand changes and real exchange rate dynamics in a finite horizon model with sectoral adjustment costs author affiliation hung ju chen department of economics national taiwan university 21 hsu chow road taipei 100 taiwan e mail hjc ntu edu tw corresponding author chen min hsu department of economics national taiwan university 21 hsu chow road taipei 100 taiwan e mail chenmin ntu edu tw acknowledgment we would like to acknowledge the financial support provided by the program for globalization studies at the institute for advanced studies in humanities national taiwan university grant 95r0064 ah03 03 we wish to express our sincere appreciation for helpful comments and suggestions provided by two anonymous referees the editor of the journal joshua aizenman been lon chen ming chia li tsunao okumura and elias sanidas as well as participants at the 2007 annual conference of the asia pacific economic association and the 2007 conference of korea and the world economy we also thank ke shaw lian for his assistance any errors within the work are our responsibility 1 introductionalthough the traditional macroeconomic models tend to explain economic fluctuations by focusing solely on supply shocks given that equilibrium is determined by both demand and supply it would seem obvious that changes in demand may also have important effects in terms of their contribution to economic oscillations changes in demand can easily occur particularly for those small open economies for example small open economies can be easily disturbed by external shocks such as terms of trade shocks through international trade 1 another example is the reduction in the mortality rate as a result of higher health investment both public and private and better healthcare during the economic development 2 for export orientated growth economies in particular such as those of hong kong and taiwan changes in either the terms of trade or the mortality rate can significantly influence economic performance impacting the real exchange rate investment output savings and the current account the phenomenon that life expectancy is steadily lengthening for most developing countries has led to the emergence of a growing number of studies on the impact of population aging 3 since an increase in life expectancy will change the expectation of lifetime utility it will directly affect households inter temporal decisions with regard to consumption and savings however previous studies tend to analyze the impact of mortality decline in a closed economy or in a small open economy with exogenous and constant factor prices 4in order to study the impact of mortality rate changes on the economic performance in an open economy we use the overlapping generations model with uncertain lifetime developed by yaari 1965 and blanchard 1985 to examine household savings behavior within this model agents live with a finite lifetime such that different types of agents simultaneously live in the economy 5 furthermore we extend the blanchard type model to a three good open economy composed of exportable importable and non traded goods to allow us to consider the dynamics of the real exchange rate when demand changes capital production and accumulation are also incorporated into the framework to facilitate an examination of the investment behavior of firms we assume that the economy uses both capital and labor to produce exportable goods and non traded goods while importable goods are imported from abroad capital is produced by the non traded sector and installation costs are incurred when capital is transported to the exportable sector 6 as indicated by morshed and turnovsky 2004 the inclusion of the sectoral adjustment costs of capital can generate persistent deviations from the long run equilibrium by the real exchange rate in response to demand changes 7 because the real exchange rate is playing a dual role of a non traded goods price and a capital price we are able to study the impact of population aging and terms of trade shocks on international capital flows in a small open economy with endogenous factor prices

human capital risk and economic growth this paper develops a tractable incomplete markets model of economic growth in which households invest in risk free physical capital and risky human capital the paper shows that a reduction in uninsurable idiosyncratic labor income risk decreases physical capital investment but increases human capital investment growth and welfare a quantitative analysis based on a calibrated version of the model reveals that these effects are substantial and of the same order of magnitude as the effects of distortionary income taxation the analysis further suggests that government sponsored severance payments to displaced workers increase growth and welfare even if these payments have to be e nanced through distortionary income taxation

monetary policy lessons of recent inflation and disinflation by 1975 most economists agreed that the money demand function in the united states was reasonably stable and could serve as a reliable basis for the formulation of monetary policy those suspicious of monetarism were on the defensive in the light of the apparently inexorable increase of m1 velocity of about three percent per year with deviations of only a few tenths of a percent experience with rising money growth and rising inflation through 1980 only confirmed monetarist views as figure 1 shows all this had changed by 1986 with disinflation in the 1980s m1 velocity departed convincingly from its 1953 79 trend the money demand function seems to have fallen apart and is apparently not a reliable basis for monetary policy after all consequently the first major section following this introduction is devoted to the decline of velocity after 1981 and the demise of the standard money demand function some authors including i believe benjamin friedman conclude that this evidence leaves us so uncertain about the nature of money demand that policymakers cannot rely at all on any presumed money demand regularities in contrast my working hypothesis is that the money demand continues to be a stable function of relatively few variables but that the interest elasticity of money demand is substantially higher than previously thought others have sought money demand explanations in terms of regime shifts but that literature will not be discussed here events have not been kind to keynesian monetary policy positions either keynesians tend to concentrate on interest rates especially real interest rates as the best guide to the effects of monetary policy on the economy the real rate is discussed

life expectancy schooling time retirement and growth i analyze how changes in life expectancy affect retirement age education time and growth rates of economies i set up a continuous time overlapping generations model of endogenous growth with externalities in human capital production i find that increases in life expectancy give rise to first higher retirement ages and second higher education spans a threshold level for life expectancy exists such that per capita growth rates follow an inverted u pattern i introduction in this article i analyze how changes in life expectancy may affect optimal education time retirement age and the growth rates of economies to this end i set up a continuous time overlapping generations growth model with human capital accumulation that i solve numerically the issue of the effects of the reduction in mortality rates and the resulting increases in life expectancy on economic growth rates has been recently addressed in the literature through both empirical and theoretical studies along these lines i focus on human capital acquisition and its transmission across generations as the force driving the growth rate concerning empirical studies the hypothesis that the reduction in mortality rates has caused higher levels of investment in human capital and therefore augmented growth rates is partially supported for various economies thus kalemli ozcan et al 2000 show an increase in life expectancy at birth along with an increase in average numbers of years of schooling in england they claim that after averaging across lower income countries there is apparently a connection between increases in life expectancy at birth and increases in gross secondary school enrollment that is positively connected with higher growth rates observed preliminary data from latin american and caribbean countries show that gross domestic product gdp growth is statistically associated with life expectancy for instance estimates based on data from mexico suggest that for any additional year of life expectancy there will be an additional 1 increase in gdp 15 years later see world health organization 1999 box 1 2 9 along the same lines rodriguez and sachs 1999 also find a positive effect of life expectancy on gdp growth for the case of venezuela barro and sala i martin 1995 estimate for a sample of 97 countries that a 13 year increment in life expectancy would increase the per capita growth rate by 1 4 per year they also find however some exceptions where increments in life expectancy have not resulted in higher growth even though all of them exhibited higher schooling levels in the period 1960 85 malmberg 1994 gives another exception higher growth was achieved when middle aged persons were numerous whereas increases in dependent age groups led to lower per capita growth in sweden finally some other studies find mixed evidence so that increments in life expectancy result in higher growth rates for low levels of life expectancy but in lower growth rates for high levels of life expectancy see zhang et al 2003 and references therein a common result in most theoretical studies that include some sort of human capital is that an increase in life expectancy lengthens the period needed to recover investment in human capital which translates into higher returns to individual education or human capital investment this augmented return will give rise to higher levels of investment in human capital which in turn will raise growth rates ehrlich and lui 1991 show in a three overlapping generations model how improvements in longevity lower fertility thus raising educational investment and long term growth meltzer 1995 finds that mortality reductions may favor economic growth by increasing educational investment kalemli ozcan et al 2000 show in an overlapping generations model a la blanchard that if mortality drops life expectancy increases so that an augmented life horizon to enjoy the return to human capital investment gives rise to higher schooling human capital investment although growth is not affected because the growth rate in their model is identically equal to zero

the worldwide change in the behavior of interest rates and prices in 1914 abstract this paper evaluates the role of the destruction of the gold standard and the founding of the federal reserve both of which occured in 1914 in contributing to observed changes in the behavior of interest rates and prices after 1914 the paper presents a model of policy coordination in which the introduction of the fed stabilizes interest rates even it the gold standard remains intact and it offers empirical evidence that the dismantling of the gold standard did not play a crucial role in precipitating the changes in interest rate behavior

intergenerational trade longevity and economic growth we develop an overlapping generations model of endogenous growth in which human capital is the engine of growth and the generations are linked through material and emotional interdependencies within the family parents invest in their children to achieve both old age support care and emotional gratification and material support from children is determined through self enforcing implicit contracts we show that optimal intergenerational trade can then lead to maximization of growth opportunities our model produces a theory of the demographic transition linking longevity fertility and economic growth we also show that while population aging may raise the growth rate an increase in young age longevity is likely to produce a greater increase in the growth rate and a reduction in the fertility rate in a growth equilibrium these predictions and the model s implications concerning the behavior of private savings during the takeoff period appear consistent with empirical evidence

regime changes and interest rate risk this paper employs the bai and perron 1998 2003 structural break methodology to investigate important structural shifts in us interest rates using data from 1890 01 to 1933 12 i find evidence for two large structural shifts in my monthly sample the second shift is found to start in september 1917 this supports the view of several studies which argue that us entry into world war 1 and subsequent wartime policies rather than the founding of the federal reserve in 1914 caused a major change in the behavior of nominal interest rates

mortality decline human capital investment and economic growth abstract we examine the role of increased life expectancy in raising human capital investment during the process of economic growth we develop a continuous time overlapping generations model in which individuals make optimal schooling investment choices in the face of a constant probability of death we present analytic results followed by results from a calibrated version of the model using realistic estimates of the return to schooling mortality decline produces economically significant increases in schooling and consumption allowing schooling to vary endogenously produces a much larger response of consumption and capital to mortality decline than is observed when schooling is held fixed

a disinflation trade off speed versus final destination i introduction whether or not expectations of inflation are rational is an open question rational forecasts require knowledge and information that some agents may not find worthwhile acquiring instead because past inflation is a cheap and potentially informative signal about the policies of the central bank those agents with less information may resort to extrapolation from past inflation to a greater extent than those with more information in other words for all agents expectations have a rational forward looking and an adaptive backward looking component differences across agents in terms of information can lead to a separation between those who form more rational and those who form more adaptive expectations 1 a simpler heterogeneity agents with purely rational or with purely adaptive expectations has been adopted in some models 2 in that context when a central bank is the major source of information about monetary policy it could potentially influence the proportion of agents in each group a natural question is what are the central bank s preferences regarding the distribution more specifically does the central bank prefer many or few agents with rational expectations when introducing a monetary regime designed to reduce inflation we will analyze the properties of a barrogordon 1983a model of monetary policy in which some agents form rational and some adaptive expectations in that setting a higher proportion of agents with adaptive expectations generally slows down the disinflation process but as in sargent 1999 it also allows for a lower long run inflation rate an implication of this is that the central bank will prefer a higher proportion of agents who form rational expectations if it disinflates from a high level of inflation but not so if it disinflates from a moderate or low inflation level it is generally recognized that expectations do not adjust instantaneously to reflect the new conditions following a change in monetary regime instead as in lewis 1989 wieland 2000 and mankiw et al 1987 agents including the central bank observe the unfolding macro developments and form estimates of the parameters that characterize the new environment a number of interesting questions are addressed in that set up what is the speed and correctness of learning can the central bank use its control over monetary aggregates to generate observations useful in the learning process that is can learning be an active process when does equilibrium have an inflationary bias the structure of our model is simpler in the sense that the central bank has direct control over inflation and aside from a random shock the output response to changes in prices is clear the simpler set up makes the model analytically tractable and allows us to solve explicitly for steady state inflation and a parameter that captures speed of convergence of inflation to the steady state we can compare our results with the numerical estimates of other more complicated models most notably that of sargent 1999 our explicit solution helps clarify insights about the dynamics of disinflations models of parameter uncertainty and learning have also addressed questions about gradual versus rapid disinflation with results similar to ours balvers and cosimano 1994 find that rapid disinflation is preferred when inflation is high although in their framework rapid reduction in money growth is warranted to facilitate learning in our model rational agents are preferred because with high initial inflation the benefit from rapid disinflation with more rational agents outweighs the cost of higher steady state inflation similar to cukierman and meltzer 1986 and cosimano and van huyck 1993 in our model there is a possibility for the central bank to influence the beliefs of the population the process of expectation formation however is not modeled formally which contributes substantially to the analytical tractability of the model

the federal reserve and panic prevention the roles of financial regulation and lender of last resort this paper surveys the role of the federal reserve within the financial regulatory system with particular attention to the interaction of the fed s role as both a supervisor and a lender of last resort the institutional design of the federal reserve system was aimed at preventing banking panics primarily due to the permanent presence of the discount window this new system was successful at preventing a panic in the early 1920s after which the fed began to discourage the use of the discount window and intentionally create stigma for window borrowing policies that contributed to the panics of the great depression the legislation of the new deal era centralized fed power in the board of governors and over the next 75 years the fed expanded its role as a supervisor of the largest banks nevertheless prior to the recent crisis the fed had large gaps in its authority as a supervisor and as lender of last resort with the latter role weakened further by stigma the fed was unable to prevent the recent crisis during which its lender of last resort function expanded significantly as the fed begins its second century there are still great challenges to fulfilling its original intention of panic prevention

growth and welfare under endogenous lifetime we study the role of endogenous healthcare choices by households to extend their expected lifetimes on economic growth and welfare in a decentralized overlapping generations economy with the realistic feature that households savings are held in annuities we characterize healthcare spending in the decentralized market equilibrium and its effects on economic growth we then identify the moral hazard effect in healthcare investments when annuity rates are conditioned on average mortality and explain the conditions under which it will lead to over investment in healthcare moreover we specify the general equilibrium effects and macroeconomic repercussions associated with this moral hazard effect calibrating our model to oecd data we find that the moral hazard effect may be substantial and implies sizeable welfare losses of approximately 1 5 at a more general level our study suggests that welfare improvements from longevity increases may be quite lower than sometimes assumed when considered in planner economies

rational expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime an investigation of the term structure of interest rates abstract this paper is of interest both for its methodological contribution of new tools for analyzing rational expectations models and for its substantive conclusions concerning the term structure of interest rates during the monetary experiment of october 1979 the paper studies systems subject to changes in regime interpreted here as occasional discrete shifts in the parameters governing the time series behavior of exogenous economic variables the specification is shown to be quite tractable both theoretically and empirically the technique is used to analyze yields on three month treasury bills and ten year treasury bonds during 1962 to 1987 a constant parameter linear model for short term rates is shown to be inconsistent both with the univariate time series properties of short rates and with the observed bivariate relation between long and short rates under the expectations hypothesis of the term structure an alternative nonlinear model that admits the possibility of changes in regime affords a much better description of the univariate process for short rates moreover the cross equation restrictions implied by the expectations hypothesis of the term structure are consistent with the nonlinear specification indeed the residuals of the restricted relation have a standard error of only 0 8 basis points this is a third less than that of a completely unrestricted linear regression of long rates on short rates and compares with an unconditional standard deviation of long rates of 142 basis points i conclude that once the recognition by bond traders of changes in regime is taken into account the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates holds up fairly well for these data

income distribution non convexities and the fertility income relationship this paper presents a model of inequality income determination and fertility that is consistent with aggregated stylized facts and individual survey data on fertility and income it shows that indivisibilities in human capital investments limit the possibility of trade off between the quality and the quantity of children this generates a non monotonic relationship between income and fertility at the micro level on the aggregate the total fertility rate can increase or decrease with income depending on the income distribution of the population and on the private cost of education

the founding of the fed and the behavior of interest rates what can be learned from small samples abstract we take issue with angelini s 1994 claim that the founding of the federal reserve was not responsible for a change in the stochastic process followed by short term interest rates we argue that angelini s failure to reject the null hypothesis of no regime change around the date of the founding of the fed is due to the low power of his test

the start of interest rate smoothing in the us is it a monetary or fiscal story this article revisits the key issue raised by researchers who have empirically investigated the behaviour of short term us interest rates during the period 1890 1933 the seminal article of mankiw miron and weil 1987 argues that changes in the behaviour of nominal interest rates is best explained as a monetary regime shift that occurred with the founding of the federal reserve in 1914 this explanation is rejected by newbold lehybourne sollis and wohar 2001 who show that fiscal and regulatory changes driven by the needs of world war1 financing best explain the changing behaviour of interest rates that they identify as beginning in mid 1917 we find using three different statistical procedures that a structural break in the second moment of interest rates occurred in early 1915 this supports the monetary regime shift argument of mmw by illustrating that the interest rate smoothing policies of the fed can be observed as a variance break in short term interest rates

from malthus to modern growth can epidemics explain the three regimes we model demographic and economic long run development in a setting where mortality is endogenous and subject to epidemic shocks the model replicates the full transition from malthusian stagnation to modern growth consistent with the historical facts the economy also passes an intermediate post malthusian phase where growth rates of both population and per capita income increase simultaneously as mortality rates fall and become less volatile the escape from the malthusian trap is the result of a series of mild epidemic shocks making it inevitable at some stage but its timing random calibrations show that it can differ by thousands of generations absent differences in exogenous parameters

barriers to prosperity parasitic and infectious diseases iq and economic development iq scores differ substantially across nations this study argues that cross country variations in iq scores to a large extent reflect the burden of parasitic and infectious diseases pids and iron and iodine deficiency iid in infancy and in utero furthermore it is shown that the prevalence of health insults through the channel of cognitive ability is influential for the level as well as the growth in productivity across the world using data for 181 countries and an instrumental variable approach regressions reveal that the prevalence of pid iids is influential for growth and income inequalities globally

health expenditures and global inequalities in longevity summary longevity is a key health and development indicator used for cross country comparisons evidence on the effects of country health expenditures on longevity is mixed we evaluate the heterogeneity in country health expenditure effects throughout the life expectancy distribution worldwide during 2006 11 using quantile regression and an assembled dataset on 175 countries that includes both historic as well as recent data on life expectancy our goal is to evaluate the effects of health expenditures across quantiles of the country level life expectancy distribution to understand whether increasing expenditures are associated with changes in longevity disparities between countries we find significant heterogeneity in expenditure effects on life expectancy the largest returns from increased spending are at the left margin of the life expectancy distribution the results suggest that increasing health spending in countries with low life expectancy may have important returns to life expectancy and significantly diminish global inequalities in longevity and development by reducing the spread of the world s life expectancy distribution

what drives the fomc s dot plots abstract the federal open market committee fomc releases quarterly its members views about what federal funds rate will be appropriate at the end of the current and the next two or three years and in the longer run we construct constant horizon interest rate projections one two and three years ahead and use real time data on 32 important macroeconomic time series to study how these variables impact on the fomc s interest rate setting news regarding the labour market is particularly important at all horizons at longer horizons financial market trade and output news also matter

testing for structural breaks trade off between power and spurious effects abstract i argue that in order to test for the effect of the foundation of the federal reserve on the behavior of short term interest rates extending the sample size on either side of the interval 1908 1918 will generate spurious results mankiw miron and weil 1987 1994 do not address data problems pointed out by other authors nor do they take into account some historical events and institutional changes in the new york money market that had an impact on the behavior of short term interest rates given these reasons for restricting the sample size i argue that their monte carlo evidence is largely irrelevant to the issue and that lack of power confirms my claim that no regime change can be detected astride the foundation of the fed

more on the behavior of interest rates and the founding of the fed abstract the paper addresses the issue of the impact of the foundation of the federal reserve system in 1914 on the behavior of short term interest rates empirical evidence is presented showing that no change of regime can be detected in the process governing short term rates in the years straddling the foundation of the fed since the behavior of this process did change in the decade 1910 1920 the paper discusses some historical events and institutional changes in the new york money market that had an impact on the behavior of short term interest rates between 1908 and 1920

swedish economic growth and education since 1800 the contribution of this paper is twofold first it builds and makes use of long run data from sweden on formal education that have never been used to date second it provides a quantitative application of recent theoretical work on the link between demographic changes and economic growth through their effect on education it concludes that changes in longevity may account for as much as 20 of the observed rise in education over the period from 1800 2000 via a horizon effect but have little impact on income growth over the period on the contrary changes in population density and composition are central mainly thanks to their effect on productivity most income growth over this period would not have materialized if demographic variables had stayed constant since 1800

education lifetime labor supply and longevity improvements this paper presents an analysis of the differential role of mortality for the optimal schooling and retirement age when the accumulation of human capital follows the so called ben porath mechanism we set up a life cycle model of consumption and labor supply at the extensive margin that allows for endogenous human capital formation this paper makes two important contributions first we provide the conditions under which a decrease in mortality leads to a longer education period and an earlier retirement age second those conditions are decomposed into a ben porath mechanism and a lifetime human wealth effect vs the years to consume effect finally using us and swedish data for cohorts born between 1890 and 2000 we show that our model can match the empirical evidence

long term determinants of the demographic transition 1870 2000 abstract this paper analyzes the long term economic determinants of the demographic transition using a large panel of countries since 1870 a simple theoretical framework accounts for the possibly nonmonotonic variations of fertility in the course of economic development as predicted by unified growth theory i find that primary schooling rather than income or health related variables is the most robust determinant of the fertility transition as regards the health transition both education and income are significant determinants of mortality rates but education alone accounts for the bulk of their time variation over the twentieth century thus education can be viewed as the main long term determinant of the demographic transition

a note on the expectations hypothesis at the founding of the fed abstract one of the most influential tests of the expectations hypothesis is mankiw and miron q j econ 101 1986 211 who found that the spread between the long term and short term rates provided predictive power for the short term rate before the fed s founding but not after they suggested that the failure of the expectations hypothesis after the fed s founding was due to the fed s practice of smoothing short term interest rates we show that their finding that the expectations hypothesis fares better prior to the fed s founding is due to the fact that the test they employ tends to generate results that are more favorable to the expectations hypothesis during periods when there is extreme volatility in the short term rate

longevity and lifetime labor supply evidence and implications conventional wisdom suggests that increased life expectancy had a key role in causing a rise in investment in human capital i incorporate the retirement decision into a version of ben porath s 1967 model and find that a necessary condition for this causal relationship to hold is that increased life expectancy will also increase lifetime labor supply i then show that this condition does not hold for american men born between 1840 and 1970 and for the american population born between 1890 and 1970 the data suggest similar patterns in western europe i end by discussing the implications of my findings for the debate on the fundamental causes of long run growth

revisiting the modernization hypothesis longevity and democracy summary modernization theory claims that changes in economic fundamentals like e g income per capita and education levels affect the political structure of a country in a causal way as an important marker of development life expectancy can also be conjectured to have a direct effect on political structures in this paper we estimate the impact of improvements in life expectancy on democracy for the purpose of identification we use data from the international epidemiological transition to construct an instrument for life expectancy we find a statistically and economically significant positive causal effect of improvements in life expectancy on democracy

financial panics the seasonality of the nominal interest rate and the founding of the fed after the founding of the fed in 1914 the frequency of financial panics and the size of the seasonal movements in nominal interest ratesboth declined substantially this paper establishes that the fed by carrying out the seasonal open market policy that eliminated the seasonal in nominal interest rates caused the decrease in the frequency of panics since seasonal movements are anticipated and financial panics are probably real events the results show that an anticipated monetary policy had real effects on the economy copyright 1986 by american economic association

the trend in retirement a model with leisure production and endogenous retirement is used to explain declining labor force participation rates of elderly males the model is calibrated to cross sectional data on labor force participation rates of u s males by age their drop in consumption and leisure good expenditure share in 2000 running the calibrated model for the period 1850 2000 a prediction of the evolution of the cross section is obtained the model accounts for more than 87 of the increase in retirement of men over 65 the increase in retirement is driven by rising wages and falling prices of leisure goods

a historical analysis of the taylor curve taylor 1979 shows that there is a permanent tradeoff between the volatility of the output gap and the volatility of inflation although a number of papers argue that the so called taylor curve is a policy menu friedman 2006 points out that it is more likely to serve as an efficiency locus that can be used to gauge the appropriateness of monetary policy using data from 1875 onward we examine the efficiency of u s monetary policy by measuring the orthogonal distance between the observed volatilities of the output gap and inflation from the taylor curve in addition we identify time periods in which the variability of the u s economy changed by observing shifts in this efficiency frontier

monetary regime changes and the behavior of ex ante real interest rates a multi country study abstract previous research has found that u s monetary regime changes are related to changes in the behavior of ex ante real interest rates this paper examines monetary regime changes in other countries to test whether changes in expected real interest rates are related to monetary regime changes in a systematic manner the results show that while real rates have not been constant across monetary regimes the characteristics of the real rate process shifts differ across countries this evidence is consistent with theories that predict the neutrality of monetary regime changes with respect to real variables

life expectancy human capital social security and growth we analyze the effects of changes in the mortality rate upon life expectancy education retirement age human capital and growth in the presence of social security we build a vintage growth overlapping generations model in which individuals choose the length of education and the age of retirement and where unfunded social security pensions depend on workers past contributions social security has a positive effect on education but pension benefits favor reductions in retirement age the net effect is that starting from a benchmark case higher life expectancies give rise to lower per capita gdp growth in the presence of social security as the share of the active population is reduced in addition higher social security contribution rates reduce the growth rate of per capita gdp

the phillips curve the persistence of inflation and the lucas critique evidence from exchange rate regimes comment we present evidence from the united states and the united kingdom that the persistence of price inflation is significantly higher under managed exchange rate regimes than under gold based fixed exchange rate regimes these differences are also reflected in expectations augmented phillips curves we use a two country macro model with forward looking price setters to demonstrate that higher monetary accommodation of inflation and exchange rate accommodation of inflation differentials increase inflation persistence the evidence does not contradict this hypothesis it supports the hypothesis of forward looking price setters and highlights the empirical significance of the lucas critique jel e31 e42 f33

accounting for the effect of health on economic growth i use microeconomic estimates of the effect of health on individual outcomes to construct macroeconomic estimates of the proximate effect of health on gdp per capita i employ a variety of methods to construct estimates of the return to health which i combine with cross country and historical data on height adult survival rates and age at menarche using my preferred estimate eliminating health differences among countries would reduce the variance of log gdp per worker by 9 9 percent and reduce the ratio of gdp per worker at the 90th percentile to gdp per worker at the loth percentile from 20 5 to 17 9 while this effect is economically significant it is also substantially smaller than estimates of the effect of health on economic growth that are derived from cross country regressions

investigating the effects of monetary regime shifts the case of the federal reserve and the shrinking risk premium abstract in this paper we use mishkin s efficient markets framework journal of finance 37 1982 63 72 to show that the founding of the federal reserve led to a greater than 50 reduction in the size of the risk term premium a 6 month instrument pays over a 3 month one and that this reduction coincides with the significant reduction in the uncertainty of interest rates that took place during the same period this result demonstrates a major impact this unparalleled us monetary regime shift had on financial markets and provides further confirmation of the importance of accounting for major institutional and policy changes when investigating the sources of changing intertemporal macroeconomic relationships

hiv testing subjective beliefs and economic behavior this paper examines the effects of learning hiv status on economic behavior among rural malawians according to economic life cycle models if learning hiv results is informative about additional years of life being diagnosed hiv positive or negative should predict changes in consumption investment and savings behavior with important micro and macro economic implications using an experiment that randomly assigned incentives to learn hiv results i find that while learning hiv results had short term effects on subjective belief of hiv infection these differences did not persist after two years consistent with this there were relatively few differences two years later in savings income expenditures and employment between those who learned and did not learn their status

returns to investment in education a global update the author updates compilations of rate of return estimates to investment in education published since 1985 and discusses methodological issues surrounding those estimates some key patterns among the three main levels of education primary education continues to exhibit the highest social profitability in all world regions private returns are considerably higher than social returns because of the public subsidization of education the degree of public subsidy increases with the level of education which is regressive social and private returns at all levels generally decline by the level of a country s per capita income overall the returns to female education are higher than those to male education but at individual levels of education the pattern is more mixed the returns to the academic secondary school track are higher than the vocational track since unit cost of vocational education is much higher and the returns for those who work in the private competitive sector of the economy are higher than in the public noncompetitive sector and the returns in the self employment unregulated sector of the economy are higher than in the dependent employment sector controversies in the literature are discussed in the light of the new evidence the undisputable and universal positive correlation between education and earnings can be interpreted in many ways the causation issue on whether education really affects earnings can be answered only with experimental data generated by randomly exposing different people to various amounts of education given the fact that moral and pragmatic considerations prevent the generation of such pure data researchers have to make do with indirect inferences or natural experiments some have been attempted the author looks at the research on overeducation or surplus schooling the conclusions reinforce earlier patterns they confirm that primary education continues to be the number one investment priority in developing countries they also show that educating females is marginally more profitable than educating males that the academic secondary school curriculum is a better investment than the technical vocational tract and that the returns to education obey the same rules as investment in conventional capital that is they decline as investment is expanded