economic origins of cultural norms the case of animal husbandry and bastardy abstract this paper explores the historical origins of the cultural norm regarding illegitimacy formerly known as bastardy in the context of the habsburg empire we test the hypothesis that traditional agricultural production structures influenced the historical illegitimacy ratio and have a lasting effect until today we show that regions that focused in pre industrial periods on animal husbandry as compared to crop farming had significantly higher illegitimacy ratios in the past and female descendants of these societies are still more likely to approve illegitimacy and give birth outside of marriage today to establish causality we exploit for austria within an iv approach variation in the local agricultural suitability which determined the historical dominance of animal husbandry since differences in the agricultural production structure are completely obsolete in today s economy we suggest interpreting the persistence in revealed and stated preferences as a cultural norm complementary evidence shows that this norm is passed down through generations and the family is the most important transmission channel our findings are one example for the more general phenomenon that cultural norms can be shaped by economic conditions and may persist even if economic conditions become irrelevant

children as collective goods and divorce settlements the failure of many divorced fathers to comply with court mandated child support awards has been identified as a major reason why a growing number of children live in poverty in female headed households this paper presents a model that seeks to explain why so many divorced fathers allow their children s welfare to suffer as a consequence of divorce the point of departure is the recognition that children are collective consumption goods from the point of view of the father and mother within marriage proximity and altruism serve to overcome the free rider problem associated with the provision of public goods however on divorce the noncustodial parent suffers a loss of control over the allocative decisions of the custodial parent and it is not feasible for the couple to achieve a pareto optimal allocation of their joint resources a model of optimal marriage contracts is constructed in which a couple decides on the allocation of resources within marriage and on the terms of a settlement in the event

did unilateral divorce laws raise divorce rates a reconciliation and new results application of the coase theorem to marital bargaining suggests that shifting from a consent divorce regime to no fault unilateral divorce laws should not affect divorce rates each iteration of the empirical literature examining the evolution of divorce rates across us states has yielded different conclusions about the effects of divorce law liberalization i show that these results reflect a failure to jointly consider both the political endogeneity of these divorce laws and the dynamic response of divorce rates to a shock to the political regime taking explicit account of the dynamic response of divorce rates to the policy shock i find that liberalized divorce laws caused a discernible rise in divorce rates for about a decade but that this increase was substantially reversed over the next decade that said this increase explains very little of the rise in the divorce rate over the past half century both administrative data on the flow of new divorces and measures of the stock of divorcees from the census support this conclusion these results are suggestive of spouses bargaining within marriage with an eye to their partner s divorce threat

until death do you part the effects of unilateral divorce on spousal homicides this study examines how the widespread adoption of unilateral divorce influenced the prevalence of lethal spousal violence in the united states these evaluations are based on fixed effects specifications for spousal homicide counts from an annual panel of u s states from 1968 to 1978 the results indicate that unrestricted unilateral divorce laws had small and statistically insignificant effects on the amount of lethal spousal violence directed against wives however the easy access to divorce created by such laws increased spousal homicides of husbands by approximately 21 these increases were concentrated in states where the division of marital property favored husbands

information technology and its impact on productivity firm level evidence from government and private data sources 1977 1993 robert solow s quip that we see computers everywhere but in the productivity statistics has prompted a large and growing literature examining the information productivity paradox some aggregate and industry level studies have failed to detect a positive contribution to productivity growth from investments in computer technology more recent studies utilizing firm level data however have detected a significant contribution this paper confirms the results of these latter studies using u s firm level computer asset and financial data for nonagricultural firms during the period 1977 1993 from a variety of data sources including the u s census bureau s enterprise and auxiliary establishment surveys compustat and computer intelligence infocorp a market research firm our principal finding that computers especially personal computers do contribute positively to productivity growth suggests that the traditional information productivity paradox is largely a measurement problemn this is closely related to the more general problem of assessing service sector productivity because computers are used most intensively in the service sector and in the service functions of non service sector firms e g payroll and purchasing as zvi griliches 1994 noted these activities pose the greatest problems for output and productivity measurement moreover although we may see computers everywhere they represent only a tiny fraction of capital stock on about 2 of plant property and equipment so aggregate effects may be hard to detect oliner and sichel 1993 our data indicate that computers not only contributed to productivity growth during the period 1977 1993 but they yielded excess returns relative to other types of capital the data also suggest that computer productivity peaked around 1986 1987 3 that computers are complementary with skilled labour krueger 1993 and autor katz and krueger 1997 and that use of computers may permit reductions in inventory levels finally and perhaps most interesting the evidence

the slave trade and the origins of mistrust in africa in a recent study nunn 2008 examines the long term impacts of africa s slave trade he finds that the slave trade which occurred over a period of more than 400 years had a significant negative effect on long term economic development although the article arguably identifies a negative causal relationship between the slave trade and income today the analysis is unable to establish the exact causal mechanisms underlying this reduced form relationship in this article we examine one of the channels through which the slave trade may affect economic development today combining contemporary individual level survey data with historical data on slave shipments by ethnic group we ask whether the slave trade caused a culture of mistrust to develop within africa initially slaves were captured primarily through state organized raids and warfare but as the trade progressed the environment of ubiquitous insecurity caused individuals to turn on others including friends and family members and to kidnap trick and sell each other into slavery sigismund wilhelm koelle 1854 p e h hair 1965 charles piot 1996 we hypothesize that in this environment a culture of mistrust may have evolved which may persist to this day we show that current differences in trust levels within africa can be traced back to the transatlantic and indian ocean slave trades combining contemporary individual level survey data with historical data on slave shipments by ethnic group we find that individuals whose ancestors were heavily raided during the slave trade are less trusting today evidence from a variety of identification strategies suggests that the relationship is causal examining causal mechanisms we show that most of the impact of the slave trade is through factors that are internal to the individual such as cultural norms beliefs and values jel j15 n57 z13

marriage and divorce reply in the popular press and among policymakers the effect of no fault divorce laws on divorce rates remains an issue see e g new york times 23 july 1991 in my 1986 article in this review i show that the adoption of one form of no fault divorceunilateral divorce does not lead to a significant increase in divorce rates the theoretical model that is consistent with this empirical evidence would imply that the new law does not decrease the costs of divorce it merely redefines which party has the right to terminate the marriage

returns to education a further international update and implications this paper updates evidence on the returns to investment in education by adding estimates for new countries and refining existing estimates to bring the total number of country cases to over 60 the new cross country evidence confirms and reinforces earlier patterns namely that returns are highest for primary education the general curricula the education of women and countries with the lowest per capita income the findings have important implications for directing future investment in education which for efficiency and equity purposes should concentrate on these priority areas

rural urban migation informal sector and development policies a theoretical analysis abstract a theoretical model of rural urban migration has been developed with special reference to the informal sector the wage rate and employment in the informal sector are determined endogenously the paper shows the simultaneous existence of open unemployment and informal sector in the urban area in migration equilibrium the effects of alternative subsidy policies on unemployment and welfare of the workers are studied

self interest and public funding of education abstract the objective of this paper is to study whether publicly funded education can emerge as a political and economic equilibrium in an overlapping generations economy in which selfish agents vote for public funding of education the presence of complementarities between capital and labor in the production function implies that by improving the skills of next period s workers public funding of education increases the return on capital as a result savers will support a publicly financed education system in order to enhance their future income a version of the model calibrated using u s data generates large shares of gnp allocated to education hence the non altruistic incentive to support public education is quantitatively important

the effect of joint custody on family outcomes since the 1970s almost all us states have introduced a form of joint custody after divorce i analyze the causal effect of these custody law reforms on different family outcomes my identification strategy exploits the different timing of reforms across the us states estimations based on state panel data suggest that the introduction of joint custody led to an increase in marriage rates an increase in overall fertility including a shift from nonmarital to marital fertility and an increase in divorce rates for older couples accordingly female labor market participation decreased further male suicide rates and domestic violence fell in treated states the empirical evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that joint custody increased the relative bargaining power of men within marriage

does the welfare state destroy the family evidence from oecd member countries we study the effect of the size of the welfare state on family outcomes in oecd member countries exploiting exogenous variation in public social spending due to varying degrees of political fractionalization i e the number of relevant parties involved in the legislative process we show that an expansion in the welfare state increases the fertility marriage and divorce rates with a quantitatively stronger effect on the marriage rate we conclude that the welfare state supports family formation nevertheless we also find that the welfare state decouples marriage and fertility and therefore alters the organization of the family authors abstract

distinguished lecture on economics in government the new economy post mortem or second wind there was an acceleration of u s productivity after 1995 investment in information technology hardware and software contributed importantly to this but was not its sole cause in part heavy it investment perhaps overinvestment was the result of the booming economy and cheap capital besides it the expansion of productive firms boosted productivity together with the competitive pressure this put on other firms to innovate and improve productivity growth has been surprisingly strong in 2001 and the likely trend for the future is in the range of 2 2 to 2 7 percent a year the economy should get a second wind

informal sector and informal capital market in a small open less developed economy abstract a three sector static model of a small open economy has been developed with special consideration to the urban informal sector and the informal capital market informal capital is mobile between the rural sector and the urban informal sector policy effects in this model appear to be different from those analysed in other three sector models

what do we learn from the weather the new climate economy literature a rapidly growing body of research applies panel methods to examine how temperature precipitation and windstorms influence economic outcomes these studies focus on changes in weather realizations over time within a given spatial area and demonstrate impacts on agricultural output industrial output labor productivity energy demand health conflict and economic growth among other outcomes by harnessing exogenous variation over time within a given spatial unit these studies help credibly identify i the breadth of channels linking weather and the economy ii heterogeneous treatment effects across different types of locations and iii nonlinear effects of weather variables this paper reviews the new literature with two purposes first we summarize recent work providing a guide to its methodologies datasets and findings second we consider applications of the new literature including insights for the damage function within models that seek to assess the potential economic effects of future climate change jel c51 d72 o13 q51 q54

on the origins of gender roles women and the plough the study examines the historical origins of existing cross cultural differences in beliefs and values regarding the appropriate role of women in society we test the hypothesis that traditional agricultural practices influenced the historical gender division of labor and the evolution of gender norms we find that consistent with existing hypotheses the descendants of societies that traditionally practiced plough agriculture today have less equal gender norms measured using reported gender role attitudes and female participation in the workplace politics and entrepreneurial activities our results hold looking across countries across districts within countries and across ethnicities within districts to test for the importance of cultural persistence we examine the children of immigrants living in europe and the united states we find that even among these individuals all born and raised in the same country those with a heritage of traditional plough use exhibit less equal beliefs about gender roles today jel codes d03 j16 n30 copyright 2013 oxford university press

the empire is dead long live the empire long run persistence of trust and corruption in the bureaucracy we hypothesise that the habsburg empire with its well respected administration increased citizens trust in local public services in several eastern european countries communities on both sides of the long gone habsburg border have shared common formal institutions for a century now we use a border specification and a two dimensional geographic regression discontinuity design to identify from individuals living within a restricted band around the former border we find that historical habsburg affiliation increases current trust and reduces corruption in courts and police falsification tests of spuriously moved borders geographic and pre existing differences and interpersonal trust corroborate a genuine habsburg effect

economic growth and crime against small and medium sized enterprises in developing economies several studies have explored the relationship between economy level crime rates or individual level crime and economic growth however few studies have examined the relationship between economic growth and crime against firms this study uses data for about 12 000 firms in 27 developing countries and finds that economic growth is negatively associated with crime this relationship is stronger for small and medium firms than large firms the study also explores several economy wide factors and their influence on the growth crime relationship for small and medium enterprises the results are robust to various sensitivity checks

migration trade unions and the informal sector a note on calvo tends to be very sticky a feature which renders some of the standard policies for reducing urban unemployment or underemployment totally ineffective in particular it is observed that in the calvo model a first best optimum cannot be obtained without the imposition of some migration barriers in this note we attempt to generalize the calvo model by incorporating the following new features first we distinguish between the two components of the urban sector the modern formal part and the traditional informal part secondly the individuals are assumed to migrate from the rural to the urban sector in response to a differential in expected utility rather than in expectedincome thereby highlighting the role of risk aversion in individual migration decisions finally following the new literature on trade union behavior 2 the present model posits a utilitarian objective function for the trade union a formulation which is considered an improvement over the one put forward by calvo an important conclusion of the present exercise which sharply contrasts calvo s conclusion is that the government by setting its policies correctly can achieve a first best optimum for the economy this difference in result is due obviously to the differences in specification in particular of the objective function of the trade union

wheat agriculture and family ties abstract several recent contributions to the literature have suggested that the strength of family ties is related to various economic and social outcomes for example alesina and giuliano 2014 highlight that the strength of family ties is strongly correlated with lower gdp and lower quality of institutions however the forces shaping family ties remain relatively unexplored in the literature this paper proposes and tests the hypothesis that the agricultural legacy of a country matters for shaping the strength of its family ties using data from the world values survey and the european values study the results show that societies with a legacy of cultivating wheat tend to have weaker family ties analysis at the sub national level us data and the country level corroborate these findings the estimations allow for alternative hypotheses which propose that pathogen stress and climatic variation can potentially also give rise to the formation of family ties the results suggest that the suitability of land for wheat production is the most influential factor in explaining the variation in the strength of family ties across societies and countries

an analysis of out of wedlock childbearing in the united states this paper relates the erosion of the custom of shotgun marriage to the legalization of abortion and the increased availability of contraception to unmarried women in the united states the decline in shotgun marriage accounts for a significant fraction of the increase in out of wedlock first births several models illustrate the analogy between women who do not adopt either birth control or abortion and the hand loom weavers both victims of changing technology mechanisms causing female immiseration are modeled and historically described this technology shock hypothesis is an alternative to welfare and job shortage theories of the feminization of poverty excerpt

property rights vs redistribution which path to national wealth recent empirical and theoretical research suggests that egalitarian income distribution may spur economic growth another different strand of research suggests that property rights are important these two results are not at odds a model of switching between a career of rent seeking and wealth producing shows that for redistribution to boost national income property rights need to be secure a more equal distribution of earned income can induce rent seekers to switch to wealth making but only if they can be assured that their earned income will be protected from other rent seekers the model suggests new directions for empirical testing

how the west invented fertility restriction europeans restricted their fertility long before other parts of the world did so by raising the marriage age of women and ensuring that a substantial proportion remained celibate the european marriage pattern emp reduced childbirths by up to 40 we analyze the rise of this first socio economic institution in history that limited fertility through delayed marriage our model emphasizes changes in agricultural production following the black death the production of meat wool and dairy pastoral products increased while grain production declined women had a comparative advantage producing pastoral goods they often worked as servants in husbandry where they remained unmarried long after they had left the parental household in a malthusian world this translated into lower population pressure raising average wages by up to a quarter the black death thus set into motion a virtuous circle of higher wages and fertility decline that underpinned europe s high per capita incomes we demonstrate the importance of this effect in a calibration of our model

it s raining men hallelujah the long run consequences of male biased sex ratios we document the short and long run effects of male biased sex ratios we exploit a natural historical experiment where large numbers of male convicts and far fewer female convicts were sent to australia in the 18th and 19th centuries in areas with more male biased sex ratios women were historically more likely to get married and less likely to work outside the home in these areas today both men and women continue to have more conservative attitudes towards women working and women work fewer hours outside the home while these women enjoy more leisure they are also less likely to work in high ranking occupations we demonstrate that the consequences of uneven sex ratios on cultural attitudes labour supply decisions and occupational choices can persist in the long run well after sex ratios are back to the natural rate we document the roles of vertical cultural transmission and marriage homogamy in sustaining this cultural persistence

rural urban migration in economic development abstract this paper provides a review of the theoretical literature on rural urban migration in contemporary ldcs the paper begins with a brief discussion of the lewis model before going on to discuss the todaro and the harris todaro models and the large literature which these models have spawned the question of job search in the context of migration and the role of family members in migration decisions are considered next the paper then takes a closer look at the informal sector and also sets out alternative migration functions to the ones usually employed in the literature the paper concludes with a brief note on some of the important implications arising from our study

marriage and divorce informational constraints and private contracting the relationship between divorce rates in the united states and laws regulating divorce are analyzed using data from a special current population survey undertaken in 1979 with particular reference to the adoption by many states of no fault divorce laws the author utilizes a contract theoretic framework to examine the impact of both legal and informational constraints on several aspects of the marriage relationship 1 the probability of divorce 2 compensation at divorce i e the terms of the divorce settlement 3 the probability of entering marriage and 4 incentives for investment in marriage specific capital two different models are developed the first assumes that ex post information about the value of each spouses opportunites at divorce is symmetric and that since divorce would only occur if the joint benefits outweigh the joint costs the law has no effect on the divorce rate the second model asserts that the existence of asymmetric information results in a fixed wage marriage contract and that divorce would be higher in states that allow unilateral divorce the evidence supports the first of these hypotheses excerpt

marriage and divorce comment the author comments on an article by h elizabeth peters concerning the impact of state laws particularly no fault divorce laws on divorce rates in the united states a reply by peters is included pp 686 93 annotation

education as a deterrent to crime education conveys a civic externality a benefit to society over and above the benefit to the student in enhancing his future earning power students are taught not only to be productive but to be law abiding and loyal to their country the civic externality is incorporated into an anarchy model where people choose to be farmers or bandits and schooling inculcates a distaste for a life of crime estimates of the return to education are biased down when the civic externality is overlooked public schooling can sometimes convey public benefits that private schooling even with a voucher scheme cannot

teach a man to fish education vs optimal taxation in models of redistribution differences in human capital are often the relevant source of heterogeneity among individuals presumably the distribution of human capital can be manipulated through education spending this paper examines the use of education as a redistributive tool when there is a non linear tax system in place the results show that taxation whether under full or asymmetric information substantially reduces the redistributive role of education spending in maximizing social welfare this points to a conflict between the equalization of utility and human capital outcomes dans les modeles de redistribution des differences dans le capital humain sont souvent la source pertinente d heterogeneite entre individus censement la distribution de capital humain peut etre manipulee par le truchement des depenses en education ce texte examine l utilisation de l education en tant qu instrument de redistribution quand un regime de fiscalite non lineaire est en place les resultats montrent que la fiscalite en regime de d information complete ou asymetrique reduit substantiellement le role de redistribution des depenses en education pour maximiser le bien etre social voila qui souligne un conflit entre l egalisation de l utilite et les resultats en termes de capital humain

income inequality and early nonmarital childbearing using individual level data from the united states we empirically investigate the role of lower tail income inequality in determining rates of early nonmarital childbearing among low socioeconomic status ses women we present robust evidence that young low ses women are more likely to have a nonmarital birth when they live in places with larger lower tail income inequality all else held constant we calculate that differences in the level of inequality are able to explain a sizeable share of the geographic variation in teen fertility rates we propose a model of adolescent decision making that facilitates the interpretation of our results

unilateral divorce versus child custody and child support in the u s this paper explores the response of the divorce rate to law reforms introducing unilateral divorce after controlling for law reforms concerning the aftermath of divorce which are omitted from most previous studies we introduce two main policy changes that have swept the us since the late 1970s the approval of the joint custody regime and the child support enforcement program because those reforms affect divorce decisions by counteracting the reallocation of property rights generated by the unilateral divorce procedure and by increasing the expected financial costs of divorce it is arguable that their omissions might obscure the impact of unilateral divorce reforms on divorce rates after allowing for changes in laws concerning the aftermath of divorce we find that the positive impact of unilateral divorce reforms on divorce rates does not vanish over time suggesting that the coase theorem may not apply to changes in divorce laws supplemental analysis developed to examine the frequency of permanent shocks in us divorce rates indicates that the positive permanent changes in divorce rates can be associated with the implementation of unilateral divorce reforms and that the negative permanent changes can be related to the law reforms concerning living arrangements in the aftermath of divorce this seems to confirm the important role of these policies in the evolution of divorce rates