rain and the democratic window of opportunity according to the economic approach to political transitions negative transitory economic shocks can give rise to a window of opportunity for democratic change we examine this hypothesis using yearly rainfall variation over the 1980 2004 period in 41 sub saharan african countries we find that a 25 drop in rainfall increases the probability of a transition to democracy during the following two years by around 3 percentage points a 5 fall in income due to low rainfall raises the probability of democratization by around 7 percentage points we also find that rainfall does not affect transitions from democracy to autocracy

the causality relationship between energy consumption and gdp in g 11 countries revisited abstract this paper explores whether energy conservation policies can be implemented in countries with the same level of development that is is restraining energy consumption without compromising economic growth feasible in all industrialized countries a new granger non causality testing procedure developed by toda and yamamoto 1995 journal of econometrics 66 225 250 is applied to re investigate the relationship if any between energy consumption and income in 11 major industrialized countries the results clearly do not support the view that energy consumption and income are neutral with respect to each other except in the case of the united kingdom germany and sweden where a neutral relationship is found bi directional causality in the united states and uni directional running from energy consumption to gdp in canada belgium the netherlands and switzerland are found this indicates that energy conservation may hinder economic growth in the latter five countries further the causality relationship appears to be uni directional but reversed for france italy and japan which implies that in these three countries energy conservation may be viable without being detrimental to economic growth

electricity consumption real gdp causality nexus evidence from a bootstrapped causality test for 30 oecd countries the goal of this paper is to examine any causal effects between electricity consumption and real gdp for 30 oecd countries we use a bootstrapped causality testing approach and unravel evidence in favour of electricity consumption causing real gdp in australia iceland italy the slovak republic the czech republic korea portugal and the uk the implication is that electricity conservation policies will negatively impact real gdp in these countries however for the rest of the 22 countries our findings suggest that electricity conversation policies will not affect real gdp

the tradeoff between wages and employment in trade union objectives this paper demonstrates that contrary to a widely held opinion the determination of the goals of unions is fully amenable to empirical analysis a characterization of the wage and employment setting process in unionized markets is adopted and its qualitative implications examined the first order condition for this model is fitted to time series data on the newspaper industry from ten cities the international typographical union s objective function reveals very restricted opportunities for substituting wages for employment in response to a change in the slope of the employer s labor demand function larger union locals place greater emphasis on wages versus employment than smaller union locals

job queues discrimination and affirmative action james r fain if employers have different becker type discrimination coefficients for different demographic groups then the implementation of affirmative action may have a differential impact on those groups we estimate two vector autoregressive models of the us economy including the unemployment rates of four demographic groups we find that a job queue existed before the implementation of affirmative action and that affirmative action changed the ordering of the job queue in manner that had a negative impact on nonwhite males we find evidence that affirmative action may have increased the unemployment rate of nonwhite males by increasing their duration of unemployment jel j71 j78 j64 j68 i introduction the relative status of demographic groups in the labor force has been undergoing significant change since the early 1960s throughout this period white females and racial minorities have experienced changes not only relative to white males but also relative to one another one such change is exhibited in relative unemployment rates figure 1 shows differentials in the smoothed unemployment rates using a 12 x 2 centered moving average for white females nonwhite males and nonwhite females for the years 1959 83 one can easily see that the relative unemployment burdens have varied over time focusing first on the two lines that are positive over the entire range one may see that prior to the late 1960s the status of nonwhite individuals especially nonwhite males relative to white females was improving however beginning in the late 1960s this trend reversed the unemployment rate differential between nonwhite males and white females increased from a low of 1 03 in july 1969 to a high of 11 12 in march 1983 similarly after declining during the 1960s the unemployment rate differential between nonwhite females and white females increased from a low of 3 49 in october 1969 to a high of 9 16 in august 1983 these reversals in trend indicate the status of white females relative to both nonwhite males and nonwhite females began improving in the late 1960s figure 1 also shows the status of nonwhite females improved relative to that of nonwhite males during the same time period the unemployment rate differential between nonwhite males and nonwhite females increased from a low of 3 13 in february 1968 to a high of 2 38 in february 1983 these three unemployment rate differentials all declined in the 1960s a time of tremendous social change and strong economic growth but all of these trends reversed direction in the 20 month period from february 1968 to october 1969 after the trend reversal the status of white females improved relative to both nonwhite males and nonwhite females and the status of nonwhite females improved relative to that of nonwhite males to put it another way nonwhite males lost ground relative to both nonwhite females and white females our goal is to examine what role if any the implementation of affirmative action in 1968 had in reversing these trends other possible explanations of the above noted reversal in trends certainly exist but several factors point to affirmative action as a potential cause of these changes first the timing is correct the trends reversed in close proximity to the implementation of affirmative action second whatever caused these reversals affected all minority groups did so within a short 20 month time span and its impact was sustained over a number of years a new federal policy designed to change the way firms hire minorities should have exactly this type of effect finally as we will argue below imposing affirmative action on discriminating employers will not benefit all demographic groups equally discriminating employers will continue to discriminate though the pattern of discrimination may change many of the traditional explanations of changes in relative unemployment rates are unlikely candidates to explain these significant and sustained reversals of longstanding trends

rainfall and conflict a cautionary tale abstract there is evidence that in some contexts income shocks cause conflict the literature demonstrating this relationship uses rainfall shocks to instrument for income shocks arguing that in agriculturally dependent regions negative rain shocks lower income which incites violence this identification strategy relies on the assumption that rainfall shocks affect conflict only through their impacts on income this paper evaluates this exclusion restriction in the context of religious conflict in india using data on dam construction i identify districts that are downstream from irrigation dams and show that income in these areas is much less sensitive to rainfall fluctuations however rain shocks remain equally strong predictors of riot incidence in these districts i explore other channels through which rainfall might affect conflict

economic determinants of land invasions this study estimates the effect of economic conditions on redistributive conflict we examine land invasions in brazil using a panel data set with over 50 000 municipality year observations adverse eco nomic shocks instrumented by rainfall cause the rural poor to invade and occupy large landholdings this effect exhibits substantial heterogeneity by land inequality and land tenure systems but not by other observable variables in highly unequal municipalities negative income shocks cause twice as many land invasions as in municipalities with average land inequality cross sectional estimates using fine within region variation also suggest the importance of land inequality in explaining redistributive conflict i introduction c onflict over land is endemic to many rural econo mies in environments marked by a highly skewed distribution of property incomplete land and credit markets poorly or unevenly enforced property rights and weak political institutions agents often resort to extralegal means to improve their economic positions the poor frequently invade private properties and occupy them until either forcibly expelled or granted official titles land conflict which is prevalent in many countries such as brazil south africa uganda and venezuela may distort the allocation of resources in the agricultural sector away from productive uses and thereby contribute to the persistence of rural poverty how do economic conditions affect this redistrib utive conflict this paper explores this question using a rich municipal level data set of 5 299 land invasions from 1988 to 2004 in brazil we follow miguel satyanath and sergenti 2004 by using rainfall as a source of exogenous variation to study the relationship between income and conflict and we find that adverse economic shocks cause the rural poor to invade large landholdings this effect exhibits considerable het erogeneity by land inequality and land tenure systems in highly unequal municipalities negative income shocks cause twice as many land invasions as in municipalities with average land inequality the effect of income shocks is even stronger in highly polarized municipalities as measured by the degree of bimodality in the land distribution cross sectional estimates using fine within region variation also suggest the importance of land inequality in explaining redistributive conflict we also find that income shocks cause significantly more land invasions in municipalities with a greater proportion of land under fixed rent contracts by contrast we find no evidence of heterogeneity on a range of other political and socioeconomic variables including political competition sharecropping police expenditures and social welfare spending recent microeconometric studies have examined two

climate change weather shocks and violent conflict a critical look at the evidence we use cross country data to explore whether temperature and rainfall shocks trigger violent conflict or not we include a wide range of country and time samples and explore whether the impact of weather shocks is conditional on income or political regimes our overall conclusion is sobering notwithstanding the attention this topic has attracted from the media and policy makers we find little robust evidence linking weather shocks to the onset of conflict

exports and growth is the export led growth hypothesis valid for provincial economies this paper re examines the export led growth hypothesis using provincial data unlike other studies that concentrate on country level data this study investigates the validity of the hypothesis for four largest provinces in korea seoul kyunggee kyungnam and pusan the causal implication of the export led growth hypothesis is generally supported for all provinces in the sample the framework of analysis is two and four variable autoregressive models that include provincial exports provincial output terms of trade and national output shocks granger causal orderings from exports to output growth are generally supported in bivariate causal models in multivariate models variance decompositions and impulse response functions further indicate that export growth has a significant impact on output growth for all provinces although a feedback effect from output to export growth appears in seoul and the kyungnam province

monetary policy and the informational efficiency of the stock market the evidence from many countries 1987 monetary policy and the informational efficiency of the stock market the evidence from many countries applied economics vol 19 no 11 pp 1521 1532

modelling intra urban location preferences under rational expectations the purpose of this paper is to 1 extend the traditional generalised linear expenditure system as it has been applied in location theory by including rational expectations in the formulation 2 rank intra urban places in accordance with households location preferences 3 investigate the impact of location preferences on housing demand and urban growth and 4 study the role of price and expenditure expectations on the formation of housing demand the theoretical model was tested for seven departments of the region of attica greece using monthly data for the period july 1977 october 1988 the full information maximum likelihood procedure was used to estimate the model the findings provide useful information including guidelines for government policies concerning income housing price and interest rate subsidies

chasing after good jobs do they exist and does it matter if they do most people believe that there are such things as good jobs jobs that a worker would consider herself lucky to get but for economists the existence of good jobs is debatable in this paper i provide a definition of a good job based on various theories of the labour market a job that involves a surplus captured partly by the worker i use that definition to guide an empirical investigation of the existence and importance of good jobs i conclude that good jobs do exist that the labour market does not just function according to a roy model with wage differentials reflecting only skill differentials compensating differentials or bond posting and that their impact on the overall wage structure is substantial finally i discuss the implications of the existence of good jobs for policy setting and for assessments of the justice of a society resume la chasse aux bons emplois est ce qu ils existent et est ce que cela importe qu ils existent la plupart des gens croient qu il y a telles choses que de bons emplois des emplois qu un travailleur se trouverait chanceux d avoir mais pour les economistes l existence de bons emplois est discutable dans ce texte l auteur propose une definition de bon emploi fondee sur diverses theories du marche du travail un emploi qui engendre un surplus capture en partie par le travailleur il utilise cette definition pour guider son enquete empirique sur l existence et l importance de bons emplois on conclut que les bons emplois existent que le marche du travail ne fonctionne pas seulement selon le modele de roy avec des differentiels de salaires qui refletent seulement les differentiels d habiletes les differentiels compensatoires ou le depot d une caution et que leur impact sur la structure globale des salaires est substantielle finalement l auteur discute les implications de l existence de bons emplois sur la definition de politiques et sur l evaluation du caractere juste d une societe

devaluation and the trade balance in india stationarity and cointegration a study of devaluation and the trade balance in india corrects the data for nonstationarity previous empirical tests have used non stationary data the trade balance in india is not cointegrated with a number of variables including the exchange rate absorption elasticity and monetary models are compared and the monetary model performs better there has been no j curve in india and devaluations have had no significant long run effect on the trade balance

wage and employment determination in a unionized industry the iwa and the british columbia wood products industry two non nested models of union wage and employment determination are estimated using data on the international woodworkers of america iwa and the british columbia wood products industry one model predicts wage and employment outcomes on the labordemand function while the other predicts efficient outcomes on the contract curve the models provide empirical estimates of the union s preferences the production technology and the comparative statics of the models an attempt is made to choose the true model for this industry unfortunately non nested hypothesis tests and other criteria for model discrimination cannot reject one model in favor of the other

efficient contracts with costly adjustment short run employment determination for airline mechanics this paper presents an empirical analysis of firm specific employment and wage outcomes for mechanics in the domestic airlines industry a dynamic contracting model is presented that incorporates both costly employment adjustment and potential gaps between contract wage rates and the opportunity value of workers time the model gives a useful description of the employment output linkage in the data but is less successful in capturing the dynamic relation between employment contract wage rates and wage rates outside the airline industry copyright 1986 by american economic association

the behavior of the stock market in a developing economy abstract applying granger type causality along with akaike s final prediction error criterion on the indian data over 1948 1984 this paper finds a significant causal lagged relationship between stock returns and some selected macro variables including money supply implying market inefficiency in the semi strong sense

exploring the relationship between energy use and economic growth with bivariate models new evidence from g 7 countries abstract there is a rapidly growing literature on the interaction between energy use and economic development with many analysts drawing policy conclusions on the basis of granger causality tests that involve only an energy and an economic variable this paper attempts to demonstrate empirically that such studies although useful for certain applications may be of limited use for policy purposes after outlining theoretical and methodological issues associated with such approaches i apply bivariate energy economy causality tests for canada france germany italy japan the united kingdom and the united states using aggregate and sectoral data and three different modern econometric methods the results which are often contradictory or economically implausible illustrate explicitly that one should be cautious when drawing policy implications with the aid of bivariate causality tests on small samples i therefore underline the importance of utilizing as large sample sizes as possible and using multivariate models which are closer to economic theory accommodate several mechanisms and causality channels and provide a better representation of real world interactions between energy use and economic growth

government spending and taxation what causes what in the past few years as federal deficits have risen to high nominal levels economists have argued about the effect that raising taxes ostensibly to reduce deficits might have on government spending some economists including milton friedman have argued that raising taxes will simply lead to more spending others including james buchanan and richard wagner have said that the high deficits themselves have been responsible for the growth of federal spending and that if that spending had to be financed completely by direct taxes people would demand that the federal government spend less a third group led by robert barro says that increased taxes and borrowing are results of increased government spending in section ii we briefly review various hypotheses about the relationship between federal government spending and revenues section iii describes the testing procedure used to discriminate between these hypotheses the results of four tests are presented in section iv section v contains a summary and major conclusions to foreshadow what follows we find no evidence that higher real federal taxes today lead to either higher or lower federal spending tomorrow on the other hand we find strong evidence that higher spending now will lead to higher taxes later our results support a view of the world in which the political system somehow determines how much to spend and then looks for revenue sources to finance that level of spending including direct taxation borrowing and money creation we also find evidence that real federal revenues are positively affected by real gross national product gnp real federal spending also rises with real gnp but it appears to be independent of the rate of inflation

estimating the effects of climate shocks on collective violence ardl evidence from india this paper examines the causal relationship between climate shocks and collective violence in india using annual data over the period 1954 2006 we use the ardl bounds testing approach to deal with

efficient bargains and the mcdonald solow conjecture this article explores the mcdonald and solow 1981 conjecture that the outcome from a bargain over wages and employment can be approximately achieved by a bargain over wages and the labor capital ratio the crew size where the latter can be argued to be more representative of the real world i derive a crew size contract curve and show that this conjecture is not generally true a test to determine which model is generating real world data is suggested the wage rigidity results derived by mcdonald and solow for their contract curve do not apply to this crew size contract curve

lag length selection in vector autoregressive models symmetric and asymmetric lags this study used monte carlo simulations to study the performance of alternative lag selection criterion for symmetric lag and asymmetric lag vector autoregressive models lag models with short lags and with long lags were considered the alternative criteria considered were the aic sic phillips posterior information criterion and keating s modification of the aic and sic the alternative criteria were evaluated by computing the frequency distribution of lags selected by computing the out of sample forecasting performance of models with lags selected using each criterion and by comparing the ability of models with lags selected using each criterion to mimic the true impulse response functions for the lag model

the links between international parity conditions and granger causality a study of exchange rates and prices this article investigates granger causality between exchange rates and prices for the us and four of its trading partners canada germany japan and the uk we emphasize the distinction between direct and indirect granger causality exchange rates directly cause prices if movements in exchange rates lead movement in prices and exchange rates indirectly cause prices if deviations from the purchasing power parity ppp condition can help forecast movement in prices but only by including the interest rate differential in our error correction model do we obtain results that align with economic theory the economic theory of ppp suggests that exchange rates and prices are cointegrated with exchange rates moving proportionally to prices in the long run in general we find either direct or indirect feedback mechanisms between exchange rates and prices

autoregressive modelling and money income causality detection abstract a step wise procedure based on granger s concept of causality and abaike s final prediction error criterion is suggested as a practical means to identify the order of lags of each variable in a multivariate autoregressive process the model seems useful because it can serve as a reduced form formulation to avoid imposing often spurious or false restrictions of the model it also provides a reasonably powerful test of causality the idea is applied to u s postwar money and income data it is found that between m1 and gnp a bivariate feedback model fits the data best between m2 and gnp a one way causal model from money to income performs better diagnostic checks applied to our model seem to indicate the adequacy of our approach

defence spending and unemployment rates an empirical analysis disaggregated by race this analysis brings u s time series evidence to bear on the relationship of defense spending and unemployment rates results indicate that defense increases during the 1970s were associated with improvements in the overall unemployment rate however during the 1980s such increases were associated with a worsening of the unemployment rate furthermore upon disaggregation into black and white unemployment rates it was found that in general whites were helped by defense spending increases while blacks were hurt this evidence offers support for the claim that an increasing complex military production process will lead to diminished employment gains particularly for minorities who are not proportionately represented in the high tech industries that serve the military copyright 1990 by oxford university press

measuring global money market interrelationships an investigation of five major world currencies abstract this paper extends the study of global money market integration in two primary directions first a technique which combines stationarity and cointegration tests as a basis for constructing an error correction model is applied to assess the existence of long run equilibrium relationships between money market series second analysis for the increasingly significant asian offshore markets of singapore and hong kong is added to traditional european and national markets analysis major findings are 1 the error correction model is an appropriate technique for identifying causality relationships and 2 major domestic markets and included offshore markets are partially segmented

estimating the effects of monetary policy shocks does lag structure matter this paper examines the implications of lag structure for estimating the effects of monetary policy shocks in a var a symmetric lag structure in which all variables have the same lag length and an asymmetric lag structure in which the lag length differs across variables but is the same for a particular variable in each equation of the model are examined this is important in light of the fact that the true lag structure is generally not known four commonly used identification schemes are employed to identify monetary policy shocks monte carlo simulations strongly indicate that the lag structure of a var model does matter when assessing the quantitative effects of monetary policy shocks given the inherent uncertainty about the true lag structure in practice it is thus important that one compare the impulse response functions from both symmetric lag and asymmetric lag vars in assessing the effects of monetary policy shocks

causal relationship between energy consumption and gdp growth revisited a dynamic panel data approach abstract this paper uses the panel data of energy consumption and gdp for 82 countries from 1972 to 2002 based on the income levels defined by the world bank the data are divided into four categories low income group lower middle income group upper middle income group and high income group we employ the gmm sys approach for the estimation of the panel var model in each of the four groups afterwards the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is tested and ascertained we discover a in the low income group there exists no causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth b in the middle income groups lower and upper middle income groups economic growth leads energy consumption positively c in the high income group countries economic growth leads energy consumption negatively after further in depth analysis of energy related data the results indicate that in the high income group there is a great environmental improvement as a result of more efficient energy use and reduction in the release of co2 however in the upper middle income group countries after the energy crisis the energy efficiency declines and the release of co2 rises since there is no evidence indicating that energy consumption leads economic growth in any of the four income groups a stronger energy conservation policy should be pursued in all countries

growth and the welfare state in the eu a causality analysis in this paper we test for causality between gdp growth andsocial protection expenditure in the european union to that end we apply hsiao s 1981 sequential procedure to data for twelveeu countries along the 1970 1994 period our results suggestthat for belgium germany ireland luxembourg the netherlands portugal and spain causality runs only from social protectiongrowth to gdp growth while for denmark france greece italy and the united kingdom no causality is found between socialprotection growth and gdp growth

real wages inflation and labour productivity in australia this paper presents an analysis of real wages inflation and labour productivity interrelationships using cointegration granger causality and most importantly structural change tests applications of tests to australian data over the 1965 2007 period corroborate the presence of a structural break in 1985 and show that a 1 percent increase in manufacturing sector real wages led to an increase in manufacturing sector productivity of between 0 5 and 0 8 percent comparable estimates for the effect of inflation on manufacturing sector productivity have limited statistical significance granger causality test results suggest that real wages and inflation both granger cause productivity in the long run

the asymmetric relationships between pollution energy use and oil prices in vietnam some behavioural implications for energy policy making abstract with rapidly expanding real gdp in vietnam it is anticipated that the vietnamese energy production will increase to meet its rising energy consumption an important corollary is that pollution will also rise since the energy sector is considered a big polluter in the developing world this paper brings two important insights to this literature first and foremost this paper seeks to establish if any behavioural biases of policy makers have clouded the decision to adopt suitable energy technologies and policies in vietnam with far reaching consequences for sustainability in the region secondly in order to detect behavioural biases it considers the asymmetric effects of increases vis a vis decreases in regressors by using the non linear autoregressive distributed lags nardl models to examine how such increases or decreases really impact on pollution in vietnam using annual data from 1982 to 2015 the analysis finds that the long run relationships between pollution energy use and oil prices have been characterised by non linear and asymmetric interlinkages to indicate hidden cointegration we further argue that such hidden cointegration can signal important behavioural biases in energy policy making

policy inference using var models policy inference using var models i introduction macroeconomics has a long tradition of examining the response of macroeconomic variables to shocks in alternative policy measures much recent work in this area has been based on the empirical regularities between variables found in vector autoregressive var models the var results in turn have been used to investigate the impact of changes in different policy variables var modeling procedures have been used to test the relative effects of changes in money interest rates broad credit measures and fiscal actions on economic activity 1 moreover because var analysis does not require the specification of an underlying theoretical model it also has been used to study the linkages among macroeconomic variables across national borders 2 although debate over the alleged atheoretical nature of vars continues for example see cooley and leroy 1985 leamer 1985 and braun and mittnik 1985 var models are frequently used for policy analysis how the dynamic specification of a var model is generated and how the dynamics may influence the resulting policy recommendation is the subject of this study while modeling the dynamic relationship among macro variables is a longstanding subject relatively few studies have tested for the effects of alternative lag structures on a given model to our knowledge there has been little systematic analysis of the sensitivity of policy effects to changes in the lag structure of a given var model 3 in this paper we investigate this specification problem using a simple four variable var model similar in spirit to sims s 1980b 4 this model consists of quarterly observations for money real output prices and nominal short term interest rates for the period 1960 through 1985 in selecting this model we opt to focus on the impacts of lag specification on policy inferences derived from a given var model in doing so we ignore the effects of altering the specification in terms of variables included or excluded this approach seems reasonable however since our purpose is to investigate the effects of lag structure not specification problems in general to compare the policy conclusions derived from the alternative dynamic structures we use six different lag selection criteria these criteria briefly described in section ii vary the bias efficiency tradeoff inherent in such statistical procedures section iii discusses the estimation of the var model using the alternative dynamic structures comparison of policy recommendations derived from the models is presented in section iv using variance decompositions anticipating that discussion the evidence from our model suggests that policy recommendations are very sensitive to changes in the dynamic structure conclusions close the paper in section v ii lag length selection procedures many previous researchers have chosen to impose equal lag lengths on each of the variables in their models 5 this approach produces parameter estimates that may suffer from bias or inefficiency depending on whether the model is under or over parameterized we use six different approaches to determine the lag specification five are based on statistical criteria with the exact criteria listed in table i for comparability we also employ the nonstatistical ad hoc procedure of arbitrarily fixing the maximum lag on all variables to be four quarters one of the statistical approaches used is the standard f test 6 the f test imposes zero restrictions on lags beyond some point and tests this restricted model against a more general lag structure the f statistic is calculated sequentially until adding another lag does not statistically improve the fit of the model two of the selection procedures use a mean squared error criterion these are mallows s 1973 c sub p statistic and akaike s 1970

the interactive and causal relationships involving precious metal price movements an analysis of the gold and silver markets to explain the interactive and causal relationships between gold and silver price movements time series procedures are used to identify reduced form parameters corresponding to a general arbitrage model enveloped in a framework of expectations about capital gains current price changes are conjectured to be functions of lagged and present values of the substitute precious metal prices and the interest rate plus lagged values of its own price to determine the appropriate number of lags to identify the appropriate interaction and to examine the exogeneity between the gold and silver prices and the rate of interest we use schwarz s bayesian information criterion and akaike s final prediction error criterion the resultant estimated model is simultaneous and provides information on participants average lead times in forming these expectations

bank bailouts and the conduct of monetary policy in fulfilling its obligations as a lender of last resort a central bank may encounter conflicts with its responsibility to manage the nation s monetary policy crisis lending through the discount window particularly to save troubled institutions is viewed by critics of federal reserve policy as inflationary and thus undesirable 2 the implicit assumption here is that the lending is not sterilized by open market sales leading to an expansion of bank reserves and monetary aggregates the recent actions of the fed to assist troubled financial institutions while well noted in the financial press have not been systematically analyzed to determine their overall impact if any on monetary policy using data for the period from 1973 through 1990 we examine whether the fed s crisis intervention has been sterilized with defensive open market operations a second question which we examine is whether the appropriate policy tool for studies of federal reserve behavior is nonborrowed reserves or the sum of nonborrowed reserves and extended credit 3

the relative importance of monetary and fiscal policies in selected african countries this paper examines the relative importance of monetary and fiscal policies in ten african countries using a trivariate vector autoregressive var model the analysis is undertaken with annual data from 1960 to 1990 in logarithms first difference form in five of the ten countries our empirical results support the monetarist position that monetary policy is more important than fiscal policy on the other hand the keynesian position that fiscal policy is more important than monetary policy is confirmed in the other five countries of the sample the results of this study suggest that a particular economic philosophy cannot be generalized for african countries these results may therefore prove useful not only to policy makers but also to those interested in building macroeconomic models which may have implications for aggregate demand management

beyond the purchasing power parity testing for cointegration and causality between exchange rates prices and interest rates abstract this paper reexamines the causality between the dollar and the yen in a multivariate framework with the aid of cointegration and error correcting modeling for the 1951 94 period the phillips perron tests and johansen s tests are performed while causality from interest rates to exchange rates is found in the short run no causality between prices and exchange rates is found in the short run however causality is found running from relative prices to exchange rates along with interest rates between the u s and japan in the long run which supports the long run ppp hypothesis

efficiency of the turkish stock exchange with respect to monetary variables a cointegration analysis in this study we test the semistrong form of the efficient market hypothesis in turkey by using the recently developed techniques in time series econometrics namely unit roots and cointegration the long run relationship between stock prices and inflation is investigated by assuming the possible existence of a proxy effect conclusions are made as to the efficiency of the turkish stock exchange and its possible implications for investors to our knowledge this is among the pioneering studies conducted in an emerging market that uses an updated econometric methodology to allow for an analysis of long run steady state properties together with short run dynamics

on the contract curve a test of alternative models of collective bargaining the traditional model of collective bargaining confines unions to settlements constrained by the employer s labor demand curve but an alternative model places wage employment outcomes on a contract curve that extends beyond the labor demand curve this paper derives a multidimensional hedonic contract curve model in which employment security provisions are used to maintain efficient bargains outside the employer s demand curve and distinguishes empirically between the contract curve and demand constraint models using data for public school teachers in new york state estimates clearly support the contract curve model over the demand constraint model by linking the gap between compensation and the value of the marginal product to the strength of employment security provisions

unionism in a competitive industry this article explores a model in which a union confronts many competitive workers firms and consumers under monopoly unionism union coverage may be incomplete then union wages and employment are insensitive to product demand variation under efficient unionism coverage can never be incomplete some union variables necessarily vary with product demand preliminary evidence on the demand independence under incomplete coverage hypothesis is presented also more structure is imposed and further hypotheses are derived and the manner in which the model can be enriched to allow for a variety of union related issues within a consistent framework is set out

the reaction of stock returns to anticipated and unanticipated changes in money a re examination of the evidence in the frequency domain the relationship between money and stock returns is analysed for the 1977 1985 period spectral analysis and a var vector autoregressive model are used in the analysis the preliminary results suggest a positive relationship between stock returns and money supply along a business cycles and high frequency cycles a detailed analysis however suggests the spurious character of this observed relationship the money stock returns relationship over business cycles can be explained by a contemporaneous adjustment of stock returns and anticipated money in response to business cycle anticipations the high frequency relationship on the other hand can be related to contemporaneous adjustment of stock returns and money anticipations in response to expected inflation in a framework characterized by the anticipation of the federal reserve reaction function the empirical results strongly suggest that both stock returns and money anticipations are determined in a forward looking manner incorporating the informat

poverty and crime in 19th century germany we estimate the impact of poverty on crime in 19th century bavaria germany rainfall is used as an instrumental variable for grain rye prices to address econometric identification problems in the existing literature the rye price was a major determinant of living standards during this period the rye price has a positive effect on property crime a one standard deviation increased property crime by 8 ols estimates are twice as large as instrumental variable estimates highlighting the value of our empirical approach higher rye prices lead to significantly less violent crime though and we argue that higher beer prices caused by the higher rye prices are a likely explanation

are causal relationships sensitive to causality tests 1987 are causal relationships sensitive to causality tests applied economics vol 19 no 4 pp 459 465

compensation unionization and deregulation in the motor carrier industry abstract previous research on the deregulation of the motor carrier industry has concluded that firms have become more efficient under deregulation and that costs have fallen largely at the expense of labor most studies that examine the effects on labor use current population survey data and find that wage premiums to union labor have fallen as a result of deregulation this study uses firm data and finds that deregulation had a very small effect on the average compensation paid by surviving union firms for nonunion firms the impact of deregulation is much larger these results suggest that the compensation premium for the labor of surviving union firms has increased but this increase applies only to surviving union labor in the paper we also point to and note a major exodus of union firms with the result that union labor levels have fallen and fallen dramatically