elements for the development of public policies in the residential sector of mexico based in the energy reform and the energy transition law abstract mexico has entered in an important dynamic of structural changes in the energy area proof of this it is the energy reform 2013 and the energy transition law published the last december 24th 2015 thus it is important to carry out studies of the impacts of future politics in the consumption of the population so this study estimate an energy demand system using microdata collected from 97 817 households in a national households income and expenditure survey enigh acronyms in spanish encuesta nacional de ingresos y gastos de los hogares in the 20 years period from 1994 to 2014 the magnitudes of all the fuels are smaller than one indicating that electricity lpg gasoline and public transport are normal goods while lpg is the most inelastic energy source the geographic factor shows that households in the north of mexico tend to consume more gasoline whereas in the south of the country the lowest share of lpg expenditure is reported the rigorous evaluation of energy demanded in households will help policy makers to put forward more efficient reforms

preferential trading arrangements as strategic positioning abstract we analyze a three country model of trade negotiations in which countries can form bilateral free trade areas bilateral customs unions or a trilateral preferential trading arrangement and can continue negotiating after reaching an agreement in contrast to the literature on multilateral bargaining the set of agreements can form a nonpartitional network while in contrast to the network literature players can reach multilateral agreements patient enough countries only reach bilateral agreements if insiders gain more than outsiders which allows them to manipulate the status quo in subsequent negotiations however a hub and spoke pattern may then emerge and insiders then dissipate the advantages of strategic positioning we also use variants on the model to explain why a us commitment not to bargain bilaterally sustained progress at gatt negotiations and the rarity of open access preferential trading arrangements

the regionalism debate an overview the following sections are included introductiondefinitionswto provisions for ptashistorical evolutioneffects on union membersvinerian analysis welfare effects of a tariff preferencetransport costs and ptasrules of origin in ftasnon traditional gains guaranteed market access shelter from contingent protection locking in the reforms and dispute settlementimplications for the global trading systemcan pta expansion lead to global free trade do ptas make multilateral liberalization less likely do ptas lead to a rise in trade barriers against nonmembers the spaghetti bowl phenomenonwto illegal policies in ptasopen regionalism deep integrationconclusions minimizing the adverse effects of ptasreferences this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

weathering climate change some simple rules to guide adaptation decisions this paper discusses some of the elements that may characterise an efficient strategy to adapt to a changing climate such a strategy will have to reflect the long time horizon of and the prevailing uncertainties about climate change an intuitively appealing approach therefore seems to be to enhance the flexibility and resilience of systems to react to and cope with climate shocks and extremes as well as to improve information in addition in the case of quasi irreversible investments with a long lifetime e g infrastructure investments development of coastal zones precautionary adjustments may be called for to increase the robustness of structures or to increase the rate of depreciation to allow for earlier replacement many of these measures may already have to be considered now and could be worthwhile in their own right independent of climate change considerations

bilateralism and free trade we study a setting with many countries in each country there are firms that can sell in the domestic as well as foreign markets countries can sign bilateral free trade agreements that lower import tariffs and thereby facilitate trade we allow a country to sign any number of bilateral free trade agreements a profile of free trade agreements defines the trading regime our principal finding is that in symmetric settings bilateralism is consistent with global free trade we also explore the effects of asymmetries across countries and political economy considerations on the incentives to form trade agreements

short and long run elasticities in energy demand a cointegration approach abstract short and long run energy demand elasticities are estimated on danish annual data for 1948 1990 energy consumption the real price of energy and real gdp appear to be non stationary variables cointegration and error correction methods are therefore applied all estimated parameters have the expected signs and magnitudes and no evidence is found of a structural break in energy demand caused by the increases in real energy prices since 1973 74

a robust analysis of the relationship between renewable energy consumption and its main drivers we provide a comprehensive and robust analysis of the drivers of renewable energy consumption for a panel of 64 countries using both the static pooled ols panel fixed and random effects and dynamic difference and system gmm panel data estimation approaches we show that the dynamic panel data model provides more efficient estimators than the static ones and that increases in per capita co2 emissions and per capita trade with foreign partners mainly drive the changes in per capita renewable energy consumption we also find limited evidence of oil price effects on renewable energy consumption which reflects the fact that renewable energy is just a complement and not a perfect substitute of crude oil at least in the short run

short run and long run elasticities of import demand for crude oil in turkey abstract the aim of this study is to attempt to estimate the short run and the long run elasticities of demand for crude oil in turkey by the recent autoregressive distributed lag ardl bounds testing approach to cointegration as a developing country turkey meets its growing demand for oil principally by foreign suppliers thus the study focuses on modelling the demand for imported crude oil using annual data covering the period 1980 2005 the bounds test results reveal that a long run cointegration relationship exists between the crude oil import and the explanatory variables nominal price and income but not in the model that includes real price in domestic currency the long run parameters are estimated through a long run static solution of the estimated ardl model and then the short run dynamics are estimated by the error correction model the estimated models pass the diagnostic tests successfully the findings reveal that the income and price elasticities of import demand for crude oil are inelastic both in the short run and in the long run

the structure of residential energy demand in greece abstract this paper attempts to shed light on the determinants of residential energy demand in greece and to compare it with some other oecd countries from the estimates of the short run and long run elasticities of energy demand for the period 1965 1999 we find that residential energy demand appears to be price inelastic also we do not find evidence of a structural change probably because of the low efficiency of the energy sector we find however that the magnitude of the income elasticity varies substantially between greece and other oecd countries

climate change and the insurance industry the cost of increased risk and the impetus for action abstract a convincing economic argument for taking action to prevent or ameliorate climate change has not developed because of both uncertainty about the degree of change and its timing recent costly weather related catastrophes with consequent negative impacts on the insurance industry has made the insurance industry a potential advocate for slowing what has been identified as a causal factor in climate change emissions of greenhouse gases however rising costs of claims without a longer term trend of such catastrophic losses will make it difficult to present a strong case for taking costly economic action using the black scholes option pricing model it is shown that increasing levels of climate variability as embedded in the anticipated variability of damage to insured assets will have an immediate economic cost that could serve to bolster the argument for more immediate action that cost is shown to be economically justified higher insurance premiums

residential electricity demand dynamics in turkey abstract this article provides fresh empirical evidences for the income and price elasticies of the residential energy demand both in the short run and long run for turkey over the period 1968 2005 using the bounds testing procedure to cointegration the computed elasticities of income and price are consistent with the previous studies and as expected the long run elasticities are greater than the short run elasticities an augmented form of granger causality analysis is implemented among residential electricity income price and urbanization in the long run causality runs interactively through the error correction term from income price and urbanization to residential energy but the short run causality tests are inconclusive the parameter stability of the short run as well as long run coefficients in the residential energy demand function are tested the results of these tests display a stable pattern

the theory of preferential trade agreements historical evolution and current trends the theory of preferential trade agreements pta s or what might be described in policy terms as the general agreement on tariffs and trade gatt article xxiv sanctioned freetrade areas fta s and customs unions cu s has undergone two phases of evolution in two very different modes largely reflecting the contrasting policy concerns of the time in this paper we trace this evolution offering both a historical context and an intellectual coherence to diverse analytical approaches

short and long run elasticities in us residential electricity demand a co integration approach abstract co integration techniques show promise in the analysis of short and long run effects of economic variables on energy use we use these techniques to develop an error correction model of annual us residential electricity demand we construct equipment stock indices and estimate the model for 1949 1993 our analysis suggests a structural shift in consumption during the 1960s we discuss reasons for this shift report the short and long run elasticities provide forecasts for 1994 1995 and compare the model s forecasts with other published forecasts

trade creation and trade diversion effects of regional trade arrangements low income countries although the number of regional trade arrangements rtas among the lowest income developing countries is surging the literature on their welfare effects is still scarce and the few that exist fa

the free trade area of the americas good for latin america the following sections are included introductionmercantilist bias in the effects of discriminatory liberalizationpreferential tariff liberalization the basic casebeyond the basic caseftas under quotasnon traditional gains from north south integrationnaftastatic welfare gainsnon traditional gainsmarket accessshelter from new protectionism in the united statescredibility to and lock on the reformsa digression to the european unionthe free trade area of the americasregionalism and harmonizationa summary of conclusionsreferences this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

emerging carbon constraints for corporate risk management abstract while discussions about global sustainability challenges abound the financial risks that they incur albeit important have received less attention we suggest that corporate risk assessments should include sustainability related aspects especially with relation to the natural environment and encompass the flux of critical materials within a company s value chain such a comprehensive risk assessment takes into account input as well as output related factors with this paper we focus on the flux of carbon and define carbon constraints that emerge due to the disposition of fossil fuels in the input dimension and due to direct and indirect climate change effects in the output dimension we review the literature regarding the financial consequences of carbon constraints on the macroeconomic sector and company level we conclude that a financial consequences seem to be asymmetrically distributed between and within sectors b the individual risk exposure of companies depends on the intensity of and dependency on carbon based materials and energy and c financial markets have only started to incorporate these aspects in their valuations this paper ends with recommendations on how to incorporate our results in an integrated carbon risk management framework

global environmental risks the need to manage climate risks is not a new it has shaped social institutions for many centuries in medieval england a peasant farmer s land was broken into many widely dispersed parcels economic historians interpret this as a way of hedging climate risk see references in bromley 9 land in different locations would be affected differently by droughts floods and frosts by spreading land holdings over different locations as well as by organizing agricultural cooperatives and buying insurance farmers have managed climate risk for many centuries

electricity consumption in g7 countries a panel cointegration analysis of residential demand elasticities this article applies recently developed panel unit root and panel cointegration techniques to estimate the long run and short run income and price elasticities for residential demand for electricity in g7 countries the panel results indicate that in the long run residential demand for electricity is price elastic and income inelastic the study concludes that from an environmental perspective there is potential to use pricing policies in the g7 countries to curtail residential electricity demand and thus curb carbon emissions in the long run

multilateralism and the endogenous formation of preferential trade agreements abstract this paper examines the interaction between preferential trade agreements ptas and multilateral tariff reduction in a model of imperfect competition a growing literature finds that the formation of ptas alters the incentives for and the sustainability of multilateral tariff reduction we show that the causation is not one sided multilateral tariff reduction also affects the formation of ptas specifically tariff reduction enhances the incentives to form a pta and increases the likelihood that it is self enforcing thus each round of multilateral tariff reduction should lead to a new wave of ptas this may help to explain the current trend towards regionalism

electricity demand and conservation potential in the chinese nonmetallic mineral products industry newhuadu business school research fund ministry of education foundation 10jzd0018 10jbg013 china sustainable energy program g 1103 13921 national social science foundation 09zd050

do trade agreements stimulate international trade differently evidence from 296 trade agreements in a seminal article rose 2004 found that the assumed positive impact of the wto on international trade was questionable this finding has been scrutinised and modified in subsequent research using different data sets econometric methods and separating the wto from other forms of trade agreements a key characteristic of the subsequent literature is the rather simplistic way in which trade agreements are treated whereby all trade agreements are lumped together trade agreements come however in many different forms and shapes this study addresses these differences in trade agreements using a unique database of 296 trade agreements we distinguish 17 trade related policy domains and indicate whether the agreements contain legally enforceable commitments this extensive and novel taxonomy of trade agreements enables us to allow for the possible heterogeneity of the impact of trade agreements on international trade using a gravity model we find that trade agreement heterogeneity indeed matters for international trade and that countries experience significant trade increases due to comprehensive trade agreements even if not all participants are in the wto

a quantitative model for environmentally sustainable supply chain performance measurement abstract the development of robust mechanisms for supply chain performance measurement have been identified as an integral step needed for the transition towards sustainable supply chain systems and a greener global economy however measuring the environmental performance of supply chains is a challenging task due to several factors such as the lack of standardised methodologies and the inherent multi criteria nature of the problem by leveraging the capability of a multi regional input output framework to handle the complex and global nature of supply chains the current work presents a robust environmental sustainable performance measurement model underpinned by industrial lifecycle thinking as a result some theoretical insights are provided and an empirical application of the model to the metal products industry of the brics brazil russia india china and south africa nations undertaken in an attempt to address some of the methodological and applied measurement challenges in particular this allowed the modelling of carbon emissions trends within and between the brics nations and with the rest of the world over a 20 year period 1992 2011 as well as providing an opportunity to hypothesis on their future carbon emissions performances specific analyses of the metal product industry showed that demand represents the main driver for the increasing carbon footprint however the overall decline in reported carbon footprint was due to improvements in emissions intensity and efficiency gains induced by technology the study further assesses the effects of imports and economic growth on carbon footprint and discusses the implications of the study to sustainability transition processes in the brics nations

environmental regulation of households an empirical review of economic and psychological factors abstract the literature on sustainable consumption and environmental regulation of household behavior is dominated by conceptual and normative approaches as a result many suggestions lack a firm empirical basis to overcome this deficiency econometric studies in three areas of environmentally relevant activities of households are reviewed residential use of energy generation of solid waste and recycling and residential use of water next to price and income elasticities attention is devoted to individual socio economic features and psychological factors such as attitudes knowledge perceptions and values potential psychological determinants and related insights are further examined by discussing a range of representative and illustrative statistical psychological studies of environmental behavior one important general finding is that there are very few empirical studies that systematically combine socio economic and psychological determinants a range of insights for environmental policy is derived and research recommendations are offered

compulsory environmental liability insurance as a means of dealing with climate change risk abstract conventional economic instruments encourage least cost emissions abatement but provide no information about the optimal level of abatement a mechanism is suggested that involves markets in communicating both the potential costs of climate change and the risks of incurring these costs so that the externality is properly priced the suggested mechanism involves placing liability for consequences of climate change with emitters and obliging them to insure against these consequences with the government acting as insurer of last resort

insurance and climate driven extreme events abstract we investigate how insurance affects agents decisions when being faced by endogenous climate driven extreme events this is not only important in order to understand how the possibility of insurance augments mitigation and saving decisions but it also improves our understanding of how insurance should be provided since there are no studies as of now that rely on such an integrated approach we extend the literature along two lines firstly we develop a neoclassical growth framework with endogenous extreme events and an insurance sector secondly we introduce a simulation method that allows us to explicitly take these extreme events into account and which yields additional numerical insights in doing so we can fully characterize and quantify the impact of different insurance policies for mitigation and economic growth decisions our analytical results and computational experiments show that i transparency of the insurance sector is the decisive requisite for abatement activities implying substantial policy opportunities ii a decentralized economy will under invest in abatement without adequate policy interventions iii precautionary beliefs on the frequency of extreme events lead to more sustainability iv a social security system which prices insurance fairly is preferable to an insurance industry which provides insurance with an overhead

climate change and insurance a critical appraisal several issues relating to insurance and the damage costs of climate change are discussed it is argued that the option of insuring climate change is severely limited because the associated damages are hardly quantifiable and little diversifiable in addition binding contracts are a problem on long time scales and in an international context hedging consumption smoothing over time precautionary investments and liability are not to be presented under the heading of insurance not only because this unnecessarily and confusingly expands the traditional definition of insurance but also because this could create a false sense of security the impact of climate change on the profitability of the commercial insurance sector is not likely to be severe as the insurance companies are capable of shifting changed risks to the insured provided that they are properly and timely informed on the consequences of climate change

partners to a preferential trade agreement implications of varying size abstract most often the theory of preferential trade agreements assumes a small home country and a large partner in this paper the welfare implications of a small trading partner are examined a distinction is found between two ranges of size a country may be just small or be ultra small conventional propositions about the likelihood of a gain or a loss from entering into a preferential agreement would still hold when the partner is small whereas some of them would have to be reversed when the partner is an ultra small economy

multilateral stability and efficiency of trade agreements a network formation approach we study the endogenous network formation of bilateral and multilateral trade agreements by means of hypergraphs and introduce the equilibrium concept of multilateral stability we consider multi country settings with a firm in each country that produces a homogeneous good and competes as a cournot oligopolist in each market under endogenous tariffs we find that the existence of a multilateral trade agreement is always necessary for the stability of the trading system and that the formation of preferential trade agreements is always necessary for achieving global free trade we also find that global free trade is efficient but not necessarily the only multilaterally stable trade equilibrium when countries are symmetric heterogeneous in terms of market size we derive conditions under which such a conflict between overall welfare efficiency and stability occurs

the damage costs of climate change toward more comprehensive calculations it is argued that estimating the damage costs of a certain benchmark climate change is not sufficient what is needed are cost functions and confidence intervals although these are contained in the integrated models and their technical manuals this paper brings them into the open in order to stimulate discussion after briefly reviewing the benchmark climate change damage costs region specific cost functions are presented which distinguish tangible from intangible losses and the losses due to a changing climate from those due to a changed climate furthermore cost functions are assumed to be quadratic as an approximation of the unknown but presumably convex functions results from the damage module of the integrated climate economy model fund are presented next uncertainties are incorporated and expected damages are calculated it is shown that because of convex loss functions and right skewed uncertain ties the risk premium is substantial calling for more action than analysis based on best guess estimates the final section explores some needs for further scientific research

estimating short and long term residential demand for electricity new evidence from sri lanka this study investigates the short run dynamics and long run equilibrium relationship between residential electricity demand and factors influencing demand per capita income price of electricity price of kerosene oil and price of liquefied petroleum gas using annual data for sri lanka for the period 1960 2007 the study uses unit root cointegration and error correction models the long run demand elasticities of income own price and price of kerosene oil substitute were estimated to be 0 78 0 62 and 0 14 respectively the short run elasticities for the same variables were estimated to be 032 0 16 and 0 10 respectively liquefied petroleum lp gas is a substitute for electricity only in the short run with an elasticity 0 09 the main findings of the paper support the following 1 increasing the price of electricity is not the most effective tool to reduce electricity consumption 2 existing subsidies on electricity consumption can be removed without reducing government revenue 3 the long run income elasticity of demand shows that any future increase in household incomes is likely to significantly increase the demand for electricity and 4 any power generation plans which consider only current per capita consumption and population growth should be revised taking into account the potential future income increases in order to avoid power shortages ill the country

the damage costs of climate change towards a dynamic representation economic assessments of climate change impacts are commonly presented as the effect of a climate change associated with a doubling of the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide on the current economy this paper is an attempt to express impact as a function of both climate change and socio economic change with regard to climate change issues discussed are level versus rate of change speed of adaptation speed of restoration and value adjustment and symmetry with regard to socio economic change agriculture migration and the valuation of intangible losses are addressed uncertainty and higher order impacts are treated briefly it is qualitatively argued and quantitatively illustrated that these issues matter a great deal for the damage profile over the next century a damage model based on my best guesses is presented in the appendix

lifestyle factors in u s residential electricity consumption abstract a multivariate statistical approach to lifestyle analysis of residential electricity consumption is described and illustrated factor analysis of selected variables from the 2005 u s residential energy consumption survey recs identified five lifestyle factors reflecting social and behavioral patterns associated with air conditioning laundry usage personal computer usage climate zone of residence and tv use these factors were also estimated for 2001 recs data multiple regression analysis using the lifestyle factors yields solutions accounting for approximately 40 of the variance in electricity consumption for both years by adding the household and market characteristics of income local electricity price and access to natural gas variance accounted for is increased to approximately 54 income contributed 1 unique variance to the models indicating that lifestyle factors reflecting social and behavioral patterns better account for consumption differences than income geographic segmentation of factor scores shows distinct clusters of consumption and lifestyle factors particularly in suburban locations the implications for tailored policy and planning interventions are discussed in relation to lifestyle issues

the residential demand for electricity in australia an application of the bounds testing approach to cointegration this paper reports estimates of the long and short run elasticities of residential demand for electricity in australia using the bounds testing procedure to cointegration within an autoregressive distributive lag framework in the long run we find that income and own price are the most important determinants of residential electricity demand while temperature is significant some of the time and gas prices are insignificant our estimates of long run income elasticity and price elasticity of demand are consistent with previous studies although they are towards the lower end of existing estimates as expected the short run elasticities are much smaller than the long run elasticities and the coefficients on the error correction coefficients are small consistent with the fact that in the short run energy appliances are fixed

the nerc fan a retrospective analysis of the nerc summary forecasts summary forecasts of the growth in demand for electricity published annually since 1974 by the north american electric reliability council have proved to be excessively optimistic although the projected growth rate has been revised downward each year should forecasters have been able to do a better job of predicting the slowdown in demand growth since the early 1970s should they have responded more quickly as actual demand growth fell short of projections our objective in this article is to provide some partial answers to these questions by comparing the published nerc summary forecasts nsf with benchmark forecasts provided by simple models representing well established techniques one alternative forecast is provided by the exponential smoothing box jenkins method es bj and another by a simple dynamic demand equation that uses real price and real income as explanatory variables we conclude that relative to es bj the nsf were not excessively optimistic relative to the simple demand equation