too much monitoring not enough performance pay this paper endogenises the internal organisation of competitive firms in a simple general equilibrium framework the options are monitored teams unmonitored teams motivated by collective performance pay and self employment the choice of incentive scheme depends on market price and also affects price through its influence on output as more people opt for self employment pecuniary externalities increase the pressure on the rest to follow suit and pareto rankable multiple equilibria arise the conditions for a competitive equilibrium to be constrained efficient are restrictive and everyone may gain from policies limiting monitoring and self employment and from the imposition of entry taxes

imf programs do they work can they be made to work better abstract a central issue in the debate about a new international financial architecture has been whether programs of policy reform supported by the international monetary fund work the fund claims that on balance they do because of their positive effect on the balance of payments others claim that programs are ineffective and suggest that they should be discontinued this paper reviews the econometric evidence dealing with the macroeconomic effects of imf programs it goes on to provide additional evidence and judges success against alternative criteria although the record is not good the paper argues that it would be unwise for the fund to cease lending and to abandon conditionality altogether imf programs need to be redesigned and refocused the paper concludes by identifying a number of principles that should underpin reform

efficiency and equilibria in complementary teams abstract this paper considers a team or partnership where the partners effort levels enter as strict complements in the production function the existence of a linear budget balancing sharing mechanism is demonstrated which implements the team s efficient outcome as a nash equilibrium this result is in contrast to a result derived in holmstrom 1982

optimal fiscal policy in a business cycle model with public capital in this paper a real business cycle model with optimal tax rates government borrowing and productive public capital is analysed a specification that allows for multiple stochastic shocks to technology and preferences can reproduce some key features describing the cyclical behaviour of postwar u s fiscal policy the optimally chosen policy variables fluctuate substantially over the business cycle but they do not operate like automatic stabilizers jel classification e62 e32 politiquefiscale optimale dans un modee de cycle d affaires avec capital public ce m6moire analyse un modele de cycle d affaires r6el avec taux d imposition optimaux emprunts gouvernementaux et capital public productif une sp6cification de ce modele qui enregiste plusieurs chocs stochastiques affectant technologie et pr6f6rences peut reproduire quelquesunes des caract6ristiques d6crivant le comportement cyclique de la politique fiscale d apres guerre des etats unis les variables correspondant a la politique optimale choisie fluctuent substantiellement au cours du cycle mais n operent pas comme des stabilisateurs automatiques

some theoretical and empirical issues relating to economic stabilization in developing countries abstract this paper surveys some issues relating to economic stabilization in developing countries section 2 examines the contributions of terms of trade deterioration and real exchange rate appreciation to payments imbalances in non oil developing countries during the 1970s section 3 distinguishes between demand side and supply side policies and discusses their respective roles in stabilization programmes the effects of exchange rate changes are considered within this framework in section 4 the effects of alternative stabilization policies on output prices and the balance of payments are illustrated using simulations of a model that incorporates the major relationships relevant to a typical programme section 5 summarizes the conclusions

optimal taxation in models of endogenous growth we study the problem of optimal taxation in three infinite horizon representative agent endogenous growth models the first model is a convex model in which physical and human capital are perfectly symmetric our second model incorporates elastic labor supply through a lucas style technology analysis of these two models points out the danger of assuming that government expenditures are exogenous in our third model we include government expenditures as a productive input in capital formation showing that the limiting tax rate on capital is no longer zero in numerical simulations we find similar effects on growth and welfare in all three models

the recurrent cost problem in the least developed countries the manifestation of the recurrent cost problem at the micro and macro levels is continuing if not worsening least development the article examines the causes of the recurrent cost problem and shows that there is no one simple cause and that responsibility lies in varying degrees between the least developed country governments and their aid partners given the diversity of the possible causes of the recurrent cost problem a broad package of measures including domestic policy changes and international support measures are proposed

industrialisation as a structural determinant of inflation performance in imf stabilisation programmes in less developed countries this article considers the impact of imf stabilisation programmes on inflation performance in ldcs it is argued that the success of a programme in effecting a change in the inflationary process will be influenced by the structural characteristics of the economy and in particular by the stage of industrialisation reached the empirical analysis is based on a sample of ldcs which undertook adjustment programmes supported by fund resources during the 1970s and the results obtained are consistent with the hypothesis of an association between economic structure and inflation performance

tax disturbances and real economic activity in the postwar united states abstract this paper investigates the macroeconomic effects of cyclical fluctuations in marginal tax rates it finds that systematically including tax variables in a standard real business cycle model substantially improves the model s ability to reproduce basic facts about postwar u s business cycle fluctuations in particular modeling fluctuations in personal and corporate income tax rates increases the model s predicted relative variability of hours and decreases its predicted correlation between hours and average productivity fluctuations in tax rates produce large substitution effects that alter the leisure labor supply decision

rewarding performance by promotion to a different job abstract use of promotions rather than performance related pay to provide incentives can be justified if performance is non verifiable information this does not explain why promotion is to a different job rather than simply a better paid job the effectiveness of tournaments is undermined however if unsuccessful workers are equally suited to higher paid jobs and can engage in bribery or other influence activity a promotion based reward structure with pay tied to jobs can be made immune to such activity if misallocations of employees to jobs are costly to the firm

optimal fiscal policy in a business cycle model this paper develops the quantitative implications of optimal fiscal policy in a business cycle model in a stationary equilibrium the ex ante tax rate on capital income is approximately zero there is an equivalence class of ex post capital income tax rates and bond policies that support a given allocation within this class the optimal ex post capital tax rates can range from close to independently and identically distributed to close to a random walk the tax rate on labor income fluctuates very little and inherits the persistence properties of the exogenous shocks thus there is no presumption that optimal labor tax rates follow a random walk most of the welfare gains realized by switching from a tax system like that of the united states to the ramsey system come from an initial period of high taxation on capital income

food supply and inflation abstract the paper presents an analytic version of the latin american structuralist theory of inflation it emphasizes the difference between the productive sectors of the economy and draws attention to the fact that the inflationary process is closely linked to inconsistent claims for shares in income it describes a keynesian economy with two three sectors real desired wages are rigid money is passive it is shown that the structuralist hypotheses are capable of generating disequilibria that can lead to constantly rising prices without any built in mechanism to offset them steady inflation can only persist if workers allow their real wage to be kept below target as the workers try to catch on the model will blow up an accelerating inflation can be observed in many latin american countries during periods when wage settlements aimed at restoring inflation losses escaped the government control the paper also explores the implications of foreign trade it shows that under structuralist hypotheses external disequilibria cannot be corrected through exchange rate devaluations alone and it examines the stagflationary impacts of an increase in the price of imported intermediates

the inflationary experiences of six developing countries in asia an investigation of underlying determinants this paper investigates major deteminats of the inflation rate in six asian developing countries the sample includes low and moderate high inflation cases for the investigation a monetarist model of the inflation rate adjusted to account for important external factors is used the results show that the growth of the money stock was not a primary source of inflation in all countries however various factors that influence the public s willingness to hold money are behind inflationary pressures across countries among these some are external factors stemming from changes in foreign interst rates and import prices overall the evidence suggests that the success of domestic policy in fighting inflation is highly dependent on the unique inflationary experience of each country

new ventures and their credit terms using uk bank data for 466 new venture loan applications we explore the determinants of interest margin the sanctioning decision and the amount borrowed when these factors are considered simultaneously collateral levels greatly influence the size of credits to new ventures a finding consistent with existing work on firm foundation rates and assets black et al economic journal 106 60 75 1996 de meza and webb the economic journal 109 153 163 1999 evans and jovanovic journal of political economy 97 4 808 827 1989 holtz eakin et al 1994 consistent with the rand journal of economics 25 334 347 diversionary models of debt firms with larger credits enjoy discounted interest margins even when we have controlled for firm size

financial development and economic growth international evidence the importance of the relationship between financial development and economic growth has been well recognized and emphasized in the field of economic development 1 although recent writings on this subject seem to accept the hypothesis that financial development is crucial for successful economic growth 2 patrick asked the critical question which sector financial or real leads in the dynamic process of economic development patrick identified two possible patterns in the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth in the first growth induces an expansion of the financial system 3 according to this view called demand following the lack of financial growth is a manifestation of the lack of demand for financial services as the real side of the economy develops its demands for various new financial services materialize and these are met rather passively from the financial side in the second pattern the expansion of the financial system precedes the demand for its services channeling scarce resources from small savers to large investors according to relative rates of return the financial sector precedes and induces real growth the deliberate establishment and promotion of financial institutions in many less developed countries ldcs might reflect this belief in the supply leading relationship between the two developments a natural question then concerns the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth patrick asserted that the direction of causality changes over the course of development in his view financial development is able to induce real innovation type investment before sustained modern economic growth gets under way and as the process of real growth occurs the supply leading impetus gradually becomes less important and the demand following financial response

disequilibrium analysis in developing economies an overview a general theory of distortions in product and in factor markets distinguishes between endogenous and policy imposed distortions the literature has tended to focus on policy imposed distortions in product markets and on endogenous distortions in factor markets this paper analyzes policy imposed distortions in product and in factor markets of developing economies section i briefly describes the principal policy imposed distortions observed reviews recent estimates on the extent of discrimination in particular markets and indicates their possible economic effects section ii reports on available estimates of the impact of these distortions on the efficiency of allocating existing resources as well as on savings investment efficiency and economic growth

efficient and nearly efficient partnerships this paper shows in two ways that the degree to which free riding diminishes the performance of deterministic partnerships may be less than has been generally thought first a necessary and sufficient condition is provided for a partnership to sustain full efficiency it implies that many non trivial partnerships sustain efficiency such as generic ones with finite action spaces and neoclassical ones with leontief technologies second approximate efficiency is shown to be achievable in a large class of partnerships including ones with smooth and monotonic production and disutility functions approximate efficiency is achieved by mixed strategy equilibria one partner takes with small probability an inefficient action the degree to which efficiency is approximated is restricted only by the amount of liability the partners can bear nonetheless their equilibrium payments are not arbitrarily large

structural determinants of government budget deficits in developing countries abstract the purpose of this study is to examine the possibility that certain structural factors make some developing countries more likely to incur government budget deficits than others empirical evidence is provided to support the hypotheses that developing countries are likely to have larger government budget deficits the lower their level of economic development the greater the degree of government participation in the economy and the less control exercised over government expenditures less convincing support is given for the hypothesis that revenue instability contributes to government budget deficits an unexpected result of the study is that growth of government revenues is positively related to budget deficits which leads the author to consider the possibility of a please effect

when failure becomes success class and the debate over stabilization and adjustment abstract this article criticizes the current debate over stabilization and adjustment and develops an alternative class analytic approach first the respective theories and policy recommendations of neoclassical and structuralist economist are analyzed then the article considers the recent experiences of argentina brazil and peru where orthodox and heterodox policies have been attempted and subsequently declared failures finally it is shown that those failures with respect to employment inflation and the balance of payments become successes to the extent that they involve increasing exploitation and otherwise strengthening the class aspects of capitalism

tax analysis in a real business cycle model on measuring harberger triangles and okun gaps abstract a tax distorted real business cycle model is parameterized calibrated and solved numerically in an attempt to measure the size of harberger triangles relative to okun gaps in particular the model constructed is used to study quantitatively the impact of various distortional government tax and subsidy schemes it is shown that the government can use tax policy to stabilize cyclical fluctuations and this is done for the economy being studied the benefits of implementing such a stabilization policy are calculated and compared with the size of the welfare gains realized from reducing various tax distortions

optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital abstract this paper is concerned with the structure and time consistency of optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital in a dynamic context optimal taxation means distributing tax distortions over time in a welfare maximizing way for a barter economy our main finding is that with debt commitments of sufficiently rich maturity structure an optimal policy if one exists is time consistent in a monetary economy the idea of optimal taxation must be broadened to include an inflation tax and we find that time consistency does not carry over an optimal inflation tax requires commitment by rules in a sense that has no counterpart in the dynamic theory of ordinary excise taxes the reason time consistency fails in a monetary economy is that nominal assets should from a welfare maximizing point of view always be taxed away via an immediate inflation in a kind of capital levy this emerges as a new possibility when money is introduced into an economy without capital

the effects of imf programs in the third world debate and evidence from latin america abstract this article reviews the debate about the effects of imf sponsored stabilization programs in the third world after examining recent studies by fund economists results of a new study on a latin american country set are presented in this research imf programs are associated with insignificant changes in the current account significant improvements in the overall balance of payments increases in inflation mixed effects on growth and a strong and consistent pattern of reduction in labor share of income the latter result is incorporated into a distribution oriented critique of fund policy

pay equality and industrial politics personnel managers often argue that equitable pay treatment manifested as wage compression is useful because it reduces disharmony among workers but it is far from obvious that a compressed salary structure is morale improving since better workers may feel disenchanted by this scheme however when workers rewards are based on relative comparisons salary compression reduces uncooperative behavior that is detrimental to the firm relative comparisons imply that some reference group must be selected the major result is that within the relevant groups some wage compression is efficient

the macroeconomic effects of distortionary taxation abstract prescott 1986 estimates that technology shocks account for 75 of the fluctuations in the postwar u s economy this paper reestimates the contribution of technological change for a standard business cycle model that includes a public sector and fiscal disturbances i find that a significant fraction of the variance of aggregate consumption investment output capital stock and hours of work can be explained by disturbances in labor and capital tax rates and government consumption i also use the model to quantify the welfare costs of capital and labor taxation for both the time series and welfare calculations maximum likelihood estimates of taste technology and policy parameters are used

average marginal tax rates from social security and the individual income tax we extend previous estimates of the average marginal tax rate from the federal individual income tax to include social security our computations consider the tax rates on employers employees and the self employed the income that accrues to persons with earnings below the ceiling and the effective deductibility of employers social security contributions from workers taxable income the next effect of social security on the average marginal tax rate is below 02 until 1966 but then rises to 03 in 1968 04 in 1973 05 in 1974 06 in 1979 and 07 in 1982 this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

supply side economics and endogenous growth abstract in a simple convex model of endogenous growth the expansionary effects of a deficit financed tax cut are often strong enough to allow the government debt to be paid off in the long run without the need for subsequent tax increases a permanent and substantial reduction in marginal rates of income taxation can provide for both vigorous real economic growth and long run government budget balance

externalities in economies with imperfect information and incomplete markets this paper presents a simple general framework for analyzing externalities in economies with incomplete markets and imperfect infonnation by identifying the pecuniary effects of these externalities that net out the paper simplifies the problem of determining when tax interventions are pareto improving the approach indicates that such tax interventions almost always exist and that equilibria in situations of imperfect information are rarely constrained pareto optima it can also lead to simple tests based on readily observable indicators of the efficacy of particular tax policies in situations involving adverse selection signaling moral hazard incomplete contingent claims markets and queue rationing equilibria traditional discussions of externalities have emphasized the distinction between technological externalities in which the action of one individual or firm directly affects the utility or profit ofanother and pecuniary externalities in which one individual s or firm s actions affect another only through effects on prices while the presence of technological externalities imply in general that a competitive equilibrium may not be pareto efficient pecuniary externalities hy themselves are not a source of inefficiency the fact that prices change has of course important consequences there are both distributional and allocational effects but the distribution effects net out gains for example hy firms whose prices increase are precisely offset by losses e g to individuals who must pay higher prices and there are no welfare losses from the allocation effects as long as the price changes involved are small if firms are maximizing profits and individuals are maximizing utility both facing prices that correctly refiect opportunity costs then standard envelope theorem arguments imply that changes in profits or utility induced by changes in allocations resulting from any small change in prices are negligible

the moral hazard of budget breaking it has recently been suggested in the agency literature that moral hazard in teams can be dealt with by introducing a third party who breaks the budget balancing constraint and that this facilitates the design of contracts that can sustain the pareto optimum as a perfect nash equilibrium this note offers an explanation for why the use of budget breaking schemes is not so widespread as that of active monitoring despite the fact that such schemes would save the resources expended on supervision the note demonstrates that allowing the budget to be broken introduces the potential for moral hazard on the part of the third party which could render the proposed equilibrium incredible

managerial incentives and product market competition are imperfectly competitive leibenstein 1966 claims that there may be a substantial amount of x inefficiency where x inefficiency measures the degree to which actual profits depart from the maximum of profits that could be obtained if all operations in the firm were carried out at minimal costs he offers empirical evidence from case studies showing that the welfare loss due to organizational slack is of an order of magnitude bigger than the welfare loss due to monopolistic price distortions on imperfectly competitive markets these results support the common presumption that increasing competition reduces organizational and in particular managerial slack however this early literature does not offer a theoretical explanation for the link between competition and managerial incentives in particular it ignores the fact that managerial incentives can be affected by the design of an incentive scheme in this paper i derive the optimal incentive scheme for a manager as a function of the competitiveness of the environment in which his firm operates the basic impact of increased competition is that it reduces the profits of a firm this has two effects in the model first if a firm has high costs then the reduction of profits may be sufficient to render the firm unprofitable so the probability that it has to be liquidated goes up this unambiguously induces the manager of the firm to work harder for a cost reduction in order to avoid liquidation and to keep his job second the reduction in profits may affect

optimal fiscal policy public capital and the productivity slowdown abstract this paper develops a quantitative theoretical model for the optimal provision of public capital we show that the ratio of public to private capital in the us economy since 1925 evolves in a manner that is broadly consistent with an optimal transition path derived from a simple growth model the model is used to quantify the conditions under which an increase in the stock of public capital is desirable and to investigate the degree to which nonoptimal fiscal policies can account for the us productivity slowdown

optimal taxation of capital income in general equilibrium with infinite lives this paper analyzes the optimal tax on capital income in general equilibrium models of the second best agents have infinite lives and utility functions which are extensions from the koopmans form the population is heterogeneous the important property of the models is the equality between the social and the private discount rates in the long run i find that the optimal tax rate is zero in the long run for a special case of additively separable utility functions i then determine the tax rates along the dynamic path and conditions that are sufficient for the local stability of the steady state

efficiency in partnerships we provide the necessary and sufficient condition for a partnership to be able to sustain efficiency when the output is stochastic when limited liability is imposed we show that only the level of the average liability of the partnership is important the individual levels of liability are irrelevant however the allocation of the total liability among the partners is crucial when additional conditions such as neutrality or individual rationality are imposed

an eclectic model of recent ldc macroeconomic policy analyses summary after decades of neglect there has been a growing concern in the 1970s with the theoretical and econometric analysis of short run macroeconomic policy in ldcs this paper attempts an eclectic synthesis of the recent work on this subject developing a standard ldc model of aggregate demand and aggregate supply that can be readily compared with the textbook models for advanced economies comparative static analyses of monetary policy fiscal policy devaluation and wages policy are conducted and it is shown that the standard macropolicy prescriptions often produce non standard results monetary restriction and devaluation are particularly suspect as they are likely to produce both recession and price rises

optimal tax rules in a dynamic stochastic economy with capital abstract this paper investigates optimal taxation in a disaggregated neoclassical growth model optimal tax rules for a government which must finance an exogenous stochastic stream of spending are investigated many locally optimal rules are found and two principles which provide useful guidance into interpreting them are described these principles state that high steady state investment and small investment volatility are desired a persistent income tax policy suggested by judd 1989 is found to be among the best policies although some policies with complicated dynamic implications have similar welfare levels because of its simplicity the persistent income tax rule is recommended

optimal fiscal policy in a stochastic growth model although most neoclassical growth models focus on competitive equilibria which are pareto optimal and ignore the role of government recent works by romer 28 29 judd 20 baxter and king s and bizer and judd 7 have shown that government can be introduced into and suboptimal equilibria can be studied in these models as well their studies however are positive analyses of the effects of fiscal policy in competitive equilibria the purpose of this paper is to apply ramsey s 27 theory of optimal taxation to the normative study of fiscal policy in a stocastic growth model ramsey studied a static representative consumer economy with many goods in his formulation a government consumes a fixed amount of these goods which it purchases at market prices and finances by levying flat rate excise taxes prices and quantities are determined in a competitive equilibrium the government is benevolent and its objective is to choose the optimal tax rates to maximize the representative consumer s utility a number of economists among them kydland and prescott 23 barro 3 turnovsky and brock 31 and lucas and stockey 26 have noted that ramsey s formulation can be applied to dynamic economies with uncertainty if one reinterprets the goods in static problems as dated state contingent goods in this framework a fiscal policy is a rule which specifies state contingent tax rates and the amount of public debt issue in each date the optimal fiscal policy is defined as the one which leads to a quantity