taming macroeconomic instability monetary and macro prudential policy interactions in an agent based model abstract we develop an agent based model to study the macroeconomic impact of alternative macro prudential regulations and their possible interactions with different monetary policy rules the aim is to shed light on the most appropriate policy mix to achieve the resilience of the banking sector and foster macroeconomic stability simulation results show that a triple mandate taylor rule focused on output gap inflation and credit growth and a basel iii prudential regulation is the best policy mix to improve the stability of the banking sector and smooth output fluctuations moreover we consider the different levers of basel iii and their combinations we find that minimum capital requirements and counter cyclical capital buffers allow to achieve results close to the basel iii first best with a much more simplified regulatory framework finally the components of basel iii are non additive the inclusion of an additional lever does not always improve the performance of the macro prudential regulation

structural contagion and vulnerability to unexpected liquidity shortfalls abstract this paper assumes that financial fluctuations are the result of the dynamic interaction between liquidity and solvency conditions of individual economic units the framework is an extention of sordi and vercelli 2012 designed as an heterogeneous agent model which proceeds through discrete time steps within a finite time horizon the interaction at the micro level between economic units monitors the spread of contagion and systemic risk producing interesting complex dynamics the model is analysed by means of numerical simulations and systemic risk modelling where local interaction of units is captured and analysed by the bilateral provision of liquidity among units the behaviour and evolution of economic units are studied for different parameter regimes in order to investigate the relation between units expectations liquidity regimes and contagion liquidity policy implications are briefly discussed

permanent income hedonic prices and demand for housing new evidence abstract housing demand is examined by looking quite specifically at the income and price variables based on individual household data permanent and transitory incomes are computed through instrumental variables related to human and nonhuman wealth a price is constructed by spatially varying hedonic techniques separation of measured income into permanent and transitory components substantially improves the predictive power of the housing demand estimation and leads to demand elasticities of 1 and 1 with respect to permanent income and price the permanent income elasticity is roughly twice the measured income elasticity

a model of rental housing choices in the korean market the main purpose of this study is to propose and estimate a model of korean rental housing choice using hierarchical logit analysis the study focuses on the examination of how households choose their dwelling units in a complex rental housing market the decision is viewed as a partial sequence process beginning with the choice of rental housing tenure and finishing with a decision on the type of occupation to examine an additional step in the urban spatial structure hedonic price technique is incorporated into a hierarchical logit model in addition the separate effects of permanent and transitory components of measured income are examined through the instrumental variables method based on human capital theory it is shown that the proposed model provides a potentially more useful method than another model the multinomial logit in analysing the korean rental housing market

house prices bank instability and economic growth evidence from the threshold model abstract this paper examines the effects of house prices on bank instability when gauged at various levels of income growth bank stability may respond differently to house price changes or deviations from fundamental values in an economic boom environment than in a bust circumstance a threshold estimation technique developed by hansen 1999 is applied to a panel of 286 u s metropolitan statistical areas msas over the period 1990q1 2010q4 we consider two house price indicators the house price changes and the house price deviations from long run equilibrium the results suggest the existence of income growth threshold effects in the relationship between house prices and bank instability specifically there are two income growth thresholds when using the house price changes and one income growth threshold when the house price deviations are applied robustness results using the non msas sample from 1995q1 to 2010q4 provide further evidence of income growth threshold effects

functional form and rental housing market analysis this paper tests functional form for hedonic rent regressions and for rental housing demand regressions for 19 united states metropolitan areas in the hedonic rent regressions both linear and loglinear forms are rejected through box cox maximum likelihood procedures similar tests for demand regressions also reject both linear and loglinear forms these results have useful applications to the analysis of rental housing demand by low income households the more popular logarithmic and linear forms lead to very low estimated income elasticities for households in the low income range whereas the preferred form provides elasticities that are significantly higher this implies greater responsiveness to income subsidies than might otherwise be estimated

okun s law theoretical foundations and revised estimates okun s law has been accepted as an empirical regularity that predicts a 3 percentage point increase in output for every 1 point reduction in the unemployment rate but only because other facts such as weekly hours induced labor supply and productivity tend to rise as well when output gaps are estimated for the u s economy with a production function approach using two different data sets for potential output and nairu it is found that the marginal contribution of a 1 point reduction in unemployment is only about two thirds percent increase in output changes in weekly hours and capacity utilization have independent effects on the output gap copyright 1993 by mit press

default and punishment in general equilibrium we extend the standard model of general equilibrium with incomplete markets to allow for default and punishment by thinking of assets as pools the equilibrating variables include expected delivery rates along with the usual prices of assets and commodities by reinterpreting the variables our model encompasses a broad range of adverse selection and signalling phenomena in a perfectly competitive general equilibrium framework perfect competition eliminates the need for lenders to compute how the size of their loan or the price they quote might affect default rates it also makes for a simple equilibrium refinement which we propose in order to rule out irrational pessimism about deliveries of untraded assets we show that refined equilibrium always exists in our model and that default in conjunction with refinement opens the door to a theory of endogenous assets the market chooses the promises default penalties and quantity constraints of actively traded assets

booms and busts in the uk housing market the often volatile behaviour of uk house prices between 1957 and 1994 is analysed in an annual econometric model theory suggests that financial liberalisation of mortgage markets in the 1980s should have led to notable shifts in house price behaviour the evidence supports the predictions of theory suggesting shifts took place in wealth effects as in the consumption function and that real interest rates and income expectations became more important the presence of transactions costs suggests important nonlinearities in house price dynamics the paper also contains an explicit econometric treatment of expectations demography supply spillovers from the rented sector and of composition biases in the official house price index

credit rationing and the demand for owner occupied housing abstract this study applies cross sectional data to test whether default risk induced credit constraints affect the demand for owner occupied housing credit constrained households are argued to exhibit different elasticities of demand for housing than less constrained households housing demand elasticities are then estimated separately for households obtaining va insured and non va loans the government guarantee on va loans insures lenders against default enabling lenders to apply easier nonprice terms of credit results indicate that observed demand elasticities differ significantly across va and conventional mortgage holders that marginal changes in credit constraints affect housing demand and that fha financing mitigates the effect of mortgage constraints

estimation and policy implications of rental housing demand abstract the demand for rental housing using the annual housing survey smsa sample for 1977 is estimated the principal determinants of rental housing demand namely housing price and permanent transitory income are computed through spatially varying hedonic price techniques and instrumental variables methods relating to human and nonhuman capital respectively based on the demand estimation results impacts of hypothetical cash and rent subsidy programs are analyzed in terms of housing and welfare effects it is found that a rent subsidy achieves considerably larger effects than does a cash subsidy

fiscal policy and financial market movements abstract this paper estimates fiscal policy reaction function in order to investigate the links between financial market movements and fiscal policy outcomes an increase in asset prices affects in a positive and significant manner primary balances with the response reflecting both an increase in government revenues and a fall in government spending the most important impact on fiscal balances is due to changes in residential property prices changes in equity and commercial property prices are also important determinants of fiscal balances our findings suggest that the steepening of the slope of the yield curve contributes to expenditure based fiscal discipline

nominal and true cost of loan collateral abstract this paper explores costs and proceeds from loan collateral in the credit market with ex ante asymmetric information when collateral value and the probability of project success fluctuate a borrower is willing to pledge collateral if i its future value is correlated with the probability of project success or ii its value fluctuates strongly or iii it is funded with loan capital when one of the conditions is satisfied in contrast to bester 1985 a high risk borrower may be more willing to pledge collateral than a low risk borrower the paper is related to topical subprime crises and real estate collateral

bank lending and property prices in hong kong abstract this paper studies the relationship between residential property prices and bank lending in hong kong this is an interesting topic for three reasons first swings in property prices have been extremely large and frequent in hong kong second under the currency board regime monetary policy cannot be used to guard against asset price swings third despite the collapse in property prices since 1998 the banking sector remains sound while the contemporaneous correlation between lending and property prices is large our results suggest that the direction of influence goes from property prices to bank credit rather than conversely

tax subsidies to owner occupied housing an asset market approach inflation reduces the effective cost of homeownership and raises the tax subsidy to owner occupation this paper presents an asset market model of the housing market and estimates how changes in the expected inflation rate affect the real price of houses and the equilibrium size of the housing capital stock simulation results suggest that the accelerating inflation of the 1970s which substantially reduced homeowners user costs could have accounted for as much as a 30 percent increase in real house prices persistent high inflation rates could lead ultimately to a sizable increase in the stock of owner occupied housing

fundamentals panics and bank distress during the depression we assemble bank level and other data for fed member banks to model determinants of bank failure fundamentals explain bank failure risk well the first two friedman schwartz crises are not associated with positive unexplained residual failure risk or increased importance of bank illiquidity for forecasting failure the third friedman schwartz crisis is more ambiguous but increased residual failure risk is small in the aggregate the final crisis early 1933 saw a large unexplained increase in bank failure risk local contagion and illiquidity may have played a role in pre 1933 bank failures even though those effects were not large in their aggregate impact

leverage induced systemic risk under basle ii and other credit risk policies abstract we use a simple agent based model of value investors in financial markets to test three credit regulation policies the first is the unregulated case which only imposes limits on maximum leverage the second is basle ii and the third is a hypothetical alternative in which banks perfectly hedge all of their leverage induced risk with options when compared to the unregulated case both basle ii and the perfect hedge policy reduce the risk of default when leverage is low but increase it when leverage is high this is because both regulation policies increase the amount of synchronized buying and selling needed to achieve deleveraging which can destabilize the market none of these policies are optimal for everyone risk neutral investors prefer the unregulated case with low maximum leverage banks prefer the perfect hedge policy and fund managers prefer the unregulated case with high maximum leverage no one prefers basle ii

quantifying the concerns of dimon and buffett with data and computation abstract despite considerable efforts the determinants of firm growth and financial market volatility have not been definitively identified yet sets of stylized facts most notably power law distributions relating to firm size and market returns suggest both evolve as part of a complex system this scenario implies that a positive feedback loop between firms and investors exists and may be responsible for prejudicing the way management allocates their resources with firm and economic growth adversely affected further there are growing real world concerns that the management of publicly listed firms is becoming too concerned with the movement of their firm s share price which is adversely influencing resource allocation decisions a related concern is that agents in general within financial markets are placing a disproportionate focus on short term factors to investigate the ramifications of the proposed feedback loop on firm growth and market volatility this paper implements a novel agent based artificial stock market where management can consider the movements of their firm s endogenously determined share price when allocating resources between sales and margin growth the results highlight an inferior outcome regarding firm growth and various other financial metrics if management is overly concerned with share price movements the growth of the firms and market is also affected by the mixture of the investor classes initiated due to the divergent levels of volatility they create additionally the model presents insights into how and why the extent to which agents consider past outcomes in their decision making process becomes influential notably the model s results emulate an extensive set of global micro level firm data by providing significant insights on the effects of the stock market on management decision making and its ramifications for firm growth this paper provides crucial insights into the mechanisms responsible for inefficient behavior by market participants

interaction between housing prices and household borrowing the finnish case abstract employing time series econometrics this study shows that there has been a significant two way interaction between housing prices and housing loan stock in finland since the financial liberalization in the late 1980s before the financial deregulation the interaction was substantially weaker furthermore housing appreciation has a notable positive impact on the outstanding consumption loan stock it appears that there is no similar relationship between stock prices and credit understanding the two way interaction between housing prices and credit is of importance since the interdependence is likely to augment boom bust cycles in the economy and increase the fragility of the financial sector

length of residence discounts and rental housing demand theory and evidence the improved availability of crosssectional household level data over the past decade has led to substantive improvements in estimates of housing demand better techniques have been developed to measure permanent income and housing price to determine proper functional forms for demand equations and to consider the endogenous nature of the mobility move non move and or the tenure own rent decision this paper examines two rental housing market features which have been alluded to elsewhere but which have not received systematic attention first many analysts have estimated substantial length of residence discounts for example merrill 1977 lowery 1980 follain and malpezzi 1980 downs 1980 and marshall and guasch 1983 35778 these discounts are consistent with several explanations including turnover minimization by landlords screening of good tenants or sample truncation due to random error in the setting of rental prices irrespective of the source they imply that any crosssection sample of tenants will indicate rental prices that decrease all else equal with length of residence their pervasive nature suggests that they will be expected by consumers who will act accordingly in housing demand decisions this consumer optimization is the second feature of the analysis in what might be termed the equilibrium disequilibrium question the substantial search and moving costs that often accompany a housing purchase suggest that the random cross sectional

permanent and transitory income in models of housing demand abstract permanent income has for some time been recognized as the appropriate income variable for models of housing demand this paper examines a recently developed model wherein permanent and transitory income are considered to be the fitted and residual components respectively of a regression of actual income on several household characteristics an important caveat for these models is pointed out one logical remedial strategy is shown to result in underidentification for the coefficient on permanent income however the technique uncovers a tangential result which summarizes why an alternative class of models can be expected to underestimate income elasticities

budgetary rigour with stimulus in lean times policy advices from an agent based model abstract the 2008 financial crisis and the subsequent global recession triggered a wide spread economic and political debate on the proper policy combination to deal with the crisis and to prevent similar ones in the future probably the main dispute has been around the use of fiscal instruments in order to foster growth while keeping public debt under control the european union for instance endorsed austerity measures for fiscal consolidation but has been sharply criticized by several scholars this paper aims at contributing to the current debate by presenting the outcomes of a computational study performed with the eurace agent based model we set up an experiment with two base policy scenarios i e stability and growth pact and fiscal compact incrementally enriching them with complementary policies which relax fiscal rigidity and introduce quantitative easing results show that budgetary rigour performs well if and only if some mechanisms of fiscal relaxation and monetary accommodation are considered during bad times thus confirming in a richer and more realistic model setting the fundamental tenet of keynesian economics about the importance of sustaining aggregate demand during recessions

financial in stability supervision and liquidity injections a dynamic general equilibrium approach we develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with an heterogeneous banking sector we introduce endogenous default probabilities for both firms and banks and allow for bank regulation and liquidity injection into the interbank market our aim is to understand the interactions between the banking sector and the rest of the economy as well as the importance of supervisory and monetary authorities to restore financial stability the model is calibrated against real us data and used for simulations we show that basel regulation reduces the steady state but improves the resilience of the economy to shocks and that moving from basel i to basel ii is procyclical we also show that liquidity injections relieve financial instability but have ambiguous effects on output fluctuations

a network analysis of the italian overnight money market the objective of this paper is to analyse the network topology of the italian segment of the european overnight money market through methods of statistical mechanics applied to complex networks we investigate differences in the activities of banks of different sizes and the evolution of their connectivity structure over the maintenance period the main purpose of the analysis is to establish the potential implications of the current institutional arrangements on the stability of the banking system and to assess the efficiency of the interbank market in terms of absence of speculative and preferential trading relationships

income distribution credit and fiscal policies in an agent based keynesian model this work studies the interactions between income distribution and monetary and fiscal policies in terms of ensuing dynamics of macro variables gdp growth unemployment etc on the grounds of an agent based keynesian model the direct ancestor of this work is the keynes meeting schumpeter formalism presented in dosi et al 2010 to that model we add a banking sector and a monetary authority setting interest rates and credit lending conditions the model combines keynesian mechanisms of demand generation a schumpeterian innovation fueled process of growth and minskian credit dynamics the robustness of the model is checked against its capability to jointly account for a large set of empirical regularities both at the micro level and at the macro one the model is able to catch salient features underlying the current as well as previous recessions the impact of financial factors and the role in them of income distribution we find that different income distribution regimes heavily affect macroeconomic performance more unequal economies are exposed to more severe business cycles fluctuations higher unemployment rates and higher probability of crises on the policy side fiscal policies do not only dampen business cycles reduce unemployment and the likelihood of experiencing a huge crisis in some circumstances they also affect positively long term growth further the more income distribution is skewed toward profits the greater the effects of fiscal policies about monetary policy we find a strong non linearity in the way interest rates affect macroeconomic dynamics in one regime with low rates changes in interest rates are ineffective up to a threshold beyond which increasing the interest rate implies smaller output growth rates and larger output volatility unemployment and likelihood of crises

managers and efficiency in banking abstract this paper presents evidence on the impact of managers on cost efficiency in banking stochastic frontier analysis is applied to a unique finnish data set manager age and education have strong yet complicated effects on efficiency the impact of age on efficiency depends on education a university degree is useful mainly in the largest banks of the sample educational background seems to be less important for young managers than for mature ones managing director changes are systematically followed by efficiency changes retirement typically causes an efficiency improvement whereas other manager changes can either improve or weaken efficiency however in many cases mature managers outperform their young colleagues

tenure choice and housing demand in japan abstract this paper reports the results of an empirical analysis of tenure choice and housing demand that makes use of household level data from japan the paper finds that the price and permanent income elasticities of demand for owneroccupied housing are approximately 0 8 and 1 4 respectively and that these estimates are highly robust the price elasticity estimate is comparable to those for other countries but the income elasticity estimate is much higher possibly because of the greater accuracy of the income variable it is also found that the tenure choice and housing demand decisions are apparently not made simultaneously

the impact of income economic openness and interest rates on housing prices in china evidence from dynamic panel quantile regression the rapid growth of housing prices has attracted the attention of the whole of society in china this article adopts the dynamic panel quantile regression to investigate the impact of income econo

real estate prices and bank stability abstract real estate prices can deviate from their fundamental value due to rigid supply heterogeneity in quality and various market imperfections which have two contrasting effects on bank stability higher prices increase the value of collateral and net wealth of borrowers and thus reduce the likelihood of credit defaults in contrast persistent deviations from fundamentals may foster the adverse selection of increasingly risky creditors by banks seeking to expand their loan portfolios which increases bank distress probabilities we test these hypotheses using unique data on real estate markets and banks in germany house price deviations contribute to bank instability but nominal house price developments do not this finding corroborates the importance of deviations from the fundamental value of real estate rather than just price levels or changes alone when assessing bank stability

winter is possibly not coming mitigating financial instability in an agent based model with interbank market abstract we develop a macroeconomic agent based model to study how financial instability can emerge from the co evolution of interbank and credit markets and the policy responses to mitigate its impact on the real economy the model is populated by heterogenous firms consumers and banks that locally interact in different markets in particular banks provide credit to firms according to a basel ii or iii macro prudential frameworks and manage their liquidity in the interbank market the central bank performs monetary policy according to different types of taylor rules we find that the model endogenously generates market freezes in the interbank market which interact with the financial accelerator possibly leading to firm bankruptcies banking crises and the emergence of deep downturns this requires the timely intervention of the central bank as a liquidity lender of last resort moreover we find that the joint adoption of a three mandate taylor rule tackling credit growth and the basel iii macro prudential framework is the best policy mix to stabilize financial and real economic dynamics however as the liquidity coverage ratio spurs financial instability by increasing the pro cyclicality of banks liquid reserves a new counter cyclical liquidity buffer should be added to basel iii to improve its performance further finally we find that the central bank can also dampen financial instability by employing a new unconventional monetary policy tool involving active management of the interest rate corridor in the interbank market

does collateral fuel moral hazard in banking this paper presents two models in which the fluctuating value of loan collateral real estate generates the problem of moral hazard between a bank and a deposit insurance agent the bank finances risky projects against collateral and relies on the rising collateral value if the collateral value later appreciates the bank enjoys handsome profits otherwise the bank fails the findings are rather consistent with the characteristics of the topical subprime mortgage crisis

when and why did fslic resolve insolvent thrifts abstract this paper develops an optimal resolution triage strategy for a deposit insurance regulator the regulator seeks to maximize the market value of the deposit insurance enterprise subject to budget personal bureaucratic political informational and legal restraints testable hypotheses are derived concerning the timing of insolvency resolutions the paper tests these hypotheses using a two step hazards model and a data set of thrift resolutions during 1985 1989 the tests focus on the relative roles of value maximization and constraint pressures in decisions to grant capital forbearance the results suggest that regulators seldom conformed to the benchmark resolution timing strategy that an unconflicted agent would follow under only a budget constraint instead the evidence shows that the resolution timing decision was distorted by personal political informational and legal constraints

what motivates a subprime borrower to default this paper uses a real options approach to analyse the exercise of the default option embedded in mortgages in particular it examines a subprime household who borrows at a premium but hopes to refinance at prime rates if their house appreciates we show how these optimal default decisions can be used to calculate probabilities of default an important input for risk management and pricing purposes numerical examples are provided calibrated to us data in a low interest rate environment the credit upgrade potential may discourage subprime borrowers from defaulting however default probabilities are highly sensitive to changes in interest rates and house prices this provides a rational explanation for the prevalence of adjustable rate mortgages among subprime borrowers and the subsequent large numbers of defaults when interest rates rose and house prices declined

new methodology for constructing real estate price indices applied to the singapore residential market this paper develops a new methodology for constructing a real estate price index that utilizes all transaction price information encompassing both single sales and repeat sales the method is less susceptible to specification error than standard hedonic methods and is not subject to the sample selection bias involved in indexes that rely only on repeat sales the methodology employs a model design that uses a sale pairing process based on the individual building level rather than the individual house level as is used in the repeat sales method the approach extends ideas from repeat sales methodology in a way that accommodates much wider datasets in an empirical analysis of the methodology we fit the model to the private residential property market in singapore between q1 1995 and q2 2014 covering several periods of major price fluctuation and changes in government macroprudential policy the index is found to perform much better in out of sample prediction exercises than either the s p case shiller index or the index based on standard hedonic methods in a further empirical application the recursive dating method of phillips et al 2015a b is used to detect explosive behavior in the singapore real estate market explosive behavior in the new index is found to arise two quarters earlier than in the other indices

the productivity effects of bank mergers evidence from the uk building societies abstract this paper presents an empirical investigation of the impact of acquisition activity on financial intermediary productivity specifically it uses an augmented production function approach to investigate the impact of acquisition after controls for input changes the model is estimated on an unbalanced panel of 93 uk building societies over the period 1981 1993 using data on their core financial intermediation activities which it is suggested are particularly appropriate for our purposes in contrast to much of the existing merger literature which for the most part uses financial performance data our results do indicate significant and substantial productivity gains following acquisition these are consistent with an acquisitions process in which less efficient firms are acquired and reorganized the post merger gains appear to increase substantially in the post deregulation period when pressures to minimize cost are widely considered to have increased

can pure play internet banking survive the credit crisis this paper positions the pure play internet banking model ppi as a hybrid business model that combines features of both relationship and transaction banking although in terms of customer orientation ppi banks may partly resemble relationship banks they lack their comparative advantage in generating borrower specific information instead the characteristic features of ppi banks are low costs and easy scalability while the latter may enable ppi banks to quickly capture market share it may also generate overexposure in risky markets we present a case study on ing direct one of the leading global ppi banks and address the sustainability of the ppi business model by comparing the ing direct foreign operations the findings for ing direct are validated using data for e trade bank we conclude that managing growth appears to be the prime challenge to ppi banks

banking market structure and financial stability evidence from the texas real estate crisis in the 1980s abstract this paper examines the relationship between banking market structure and financial stability using data on thrifts a type of banking institution specializing in residential mortgage lending i test two related hypotheses first competition reduces franchise value second reduced franchise value induces risk taking testing the second hypothesis exploits predictions that when hit by an exogenous shock the slope of risk with respect to franchise value becomes more negative because thrifts adopt bang bang strategies and choose minimal or maximal risk using the texas real estate collapse in the 1980s as a natural experiment i find evidence supporting both hypotheses

financial infrastructure and house prices we argue that banks operating in a local market possess better information about the local housing market than do nonlocal banks possessing this information may influence their willingness to grant loans to house buyers and the specifics of the loan terms which in turn may affect house prices because credit facilitation makes the housing market more efficient using a panel data set covering a period from 1993 to 2007 and involving 274 municipalities in sweden we establish a positive causal influence of local bank presence on local house prices there are significant spatial and spillover effects that is banks in a municipality affect the housing markets in neighbouring municipalities although to a lesser extent than in their own municipality similar results are obtained through a gravity model the results are robust over time and municipality size

lending behavior and real estate prices abstract the willingness of banks to provide funding for real estate purchases depends on the creditworthiness of borrowers besides other factors this creditworthiness depends on the development of real estate prices real estate prices in turn depend on the demand for homes which is influenced by the supply of mortgages i develop a theoretical model which explains this circular relationship i show how different kinds of expectation formations can lead to fluctuations in real estate prices furthermore i show that banks make above average profits in the upswing phase of the real estate cycle but suffer high losses when the market turns

basel iii capital surcharges for g sibs are far less effective in managing systemic risk in comparison to network based systemic risk dependent financial transaction taxes in addition to constraining bilateral exposures of financial institutions there exist essentially two options for future financial regulation of systemic risk first regulation could attempt to reduce the financial fragility of global or domestic systemically important financial institutions g sibs or d sibs as for instance proposed by basel iii second it could focus on strengthening the financial system as a whole by reducing the probability of large scale cascading events this can be achieved by re shaping the topology of financial networks we use an agent based model of a financial system and the real economy to study and compare the consequences of these two options by conducting three computer experiments with the agent based model we find that re shaping financial networks is more effective and efficient than reducing financial fragility capital surcharges for g sibs could reduce systemic risk but they would have to be substantially larger than those specified in the current basel iii proposal in order to have a measurable impact this would cause a loss of efficiency

valuation and systemic risk consequences of bank opacity abstract we examine the effects of opacity on bank valuation and synchronicity in bank equity returns over the years 2000 2006 prior to the 2007 financial crisis as expected investments in opaque assets are more profitable than investments in transparent assets and taking profitability into account have larger valuation discounts relative to transparent assets the valuation discounts on opaque asset investments decline over the 2000 2006 period only to be followed by a sharp reversal in 2007 the decline is coincident with a rise in bank equity share prices decrease in transparent asset holdings by banks and greater return synchronicity evidence consistent with a feedback effect

the identification of technology regimes in banking implications for the market power fragility nexus neglecting the existence of different technologies in banking can contaminate efficiency market power and other performance measures by simultaneously estimating i technology regimes conditional on exogenous factors ii efficiency conditional on risk management and iii lerner indices of german banks we identify three distinct technology regimes public retail small specialized and universal relationship system estimation at the regional level reveals that greater bank market power increases bank profitability but also fosters corporate defaults corporate defaults in turn lead to higher probabilities of bank distress which supports the market power fragility hypothesis c 2009 elsevier b v all rights reserved

to bail out or to bail in answers from an agent based model since the beginning of the 2008 financial crisis almost half a trillion euros have been spent to financially assist eu member states in taxpayer funded bail outs these crisis resolutions are often accompanied by austerity programs causing political and social friction on both domestic and international levels the question of how to resolve failing financial institutions and how this depends on economic preconditions is therefore a pressing and controversial issue of vast political importance in this work we employ an agent based model to study the economic and financial ramifications of three highly relevant crisis resolution mechanisms to establish the validity of the model we show that it reproduces a series of key stylized facts of the financial and real economy the distressed institution can either be closed via a purchase assumption transaction it can be bailed out using taxpayer money or it may be bailed in in a debt to equity conversion we find that for an economy characterized by low unemployment and high productivity the optimal crisis resolution with respect to financial stability and economic productivity is to close the distressed institution for economies in recession with high unemployment the bail in tool provides the most efficient crisis resolution mechanism under no circumstances do taxpayer funded bail out schemes outperform bail ins with private sector involvement

schumpeter meeting keynes a policy friendly model of endogenous growth and business cycles this paper studies an agent based model that bridges keynesian theories of demandgeneration and schumpeterian theories of technology fueled economic growth we employ the model to investigate the properties of macroeconomic dynamics and the impact of public polices on supply demand and the fundamentals of the economy we find profound complementarities between factors influencing aggregate demand and drivers of technological change that affect both short run fluctuations and longterm growth patterns from a normative point of view simulations show a corresponding complementarity between keynesian and schumpeterian policies in sustaining long run growth paths characterized by milder fluctuations and relatively lower unemployment levels the matching or mismatching between innovative exploration of new technologies and the conditions of demand generation appear to suggest the presence of two distinct regimes of growth or absence thereof characterized by different short run fluctuations and unemployment levels

macroprudential policies and housing prices a new database and empirical evidence for central eastern and southeastern europe several countries in central eastern and southeastern europe used a rich set of prudential instruments during the recent credit and housing boom and bust cycles we construct a comprehensive database of these policy measures covering 16 countries at a quarterly frequency we use this database to investigate whether the policy measures had an impact on housing price inflation the measures that appeared to be effective were capital measures minimum capital adequacy ratio maximum ratio of lending to households to share capital and nonstandard liquidity measures marginal reserve requirements mrrs on foreign funding mrrs linked to credit growth

bank concentration and financial constraints on firm level investment in europe abstract this study examines the effect of bank concentration on financing constraints of non financial firms in 14 european countries between 1992 and 2005 using firm level data we analyze financial constraints with the euler equation derived from the dynamic investment model we find that with a highly concentrated banking sector firms are less financially constrained this result is robust to consideration of firm opacity firm size and business cycle relaxation of financial constraint while greater for firms in less opaque industries also accrues for firms in more opaque industries greater bank concentration is associated with less tight financial constraint during both expansions and recessions results overall are consistent with an information based hypothesis that more market power increases banks incentives to produce information on potential borrowers findings are robust to consideration of country specific institutional factors

bailouts and bank runs theory and evidence from tarp during the recent financial crisis there were bank runs right after government bailout announcements this paper develops a global game model of information based bank runs to analyze how the announcement of bailouts affects investors bank run incentives the equilibrium probability of bank runs is uniquely determined i conclude that before the announcement the existence of such bailout policy reduces investors bank run incentives but after the announcement investors may run on the bank since such an announcement reflects the government s information about the bad bank asset the empirical evidence from tarp is consistent with my theory