rural wheat consumption in china the share of wheat in china s overall grain production and consumption has increased since economic reform china is also a large wheat importer but imports are erratic in the literature there is disagreement over future prospects for per capita wheat consumption in china and imports most of the wheat is consumed in rural areas where the majority of the population resides and where consumers have shifted from coarse grains and potatoes to wheat we analyze rural wheat consumption using household data from two provinces we find there is evidence to support a contention that china s per capita wheat consumption may not grow very fast in the future and could actually fall

labor migration and risk aversion in less developed countries in this paper we question the pioneering work of todaro which states that rural to urban labor migration in less developed countries ldcs is an individual response to a higher urban expected income we demonstrate that rural to urban labor migration is perfectly rational even if urban expected income is lower than rural income we achieve this under a set of fairly stringent conditions an individual decision making entity a one period planning horizon and global risk aversion we obtain the result that a small chance of reaping a high reward is sufficient to trigger rural to urban labor migration

marketed surplus under risk do peasants agree with sandmo using a newly defined notion of aversion to income risk the behavior of the marketed surplus producer under price risk is characterized unlike the familiar case first examined by sandmo output depends on both ordinal preferences for goods and on risk attitudes conditions are found that yield an output level under risk that is smaller than under certainty if these conditions do not hold both risk and risk aversion may have a positive effect on output implications for econometric studies of risk attitudes are considered and illustrated with an example finally we examine the effect of uncertainty on the peasant s long run equilibrium

immiserized growth in liberalized agriculture abstract this paper offers a simple model that reconciles rivalrous claims about liberalization s impact on low income agrarian economies growth can accompany smallholder welfare reduction the model developed here reverses the causality of bhagwati s immiserizing growth model price shocks cause welfare effects that drive output response rather than output shocks causing price shocks and then welfare effects as in the trade theoretic original immiserized growth seems a plausible explanation for some important cases e g the malagasay case considered here in which liberalization appears to have engendered both real agricultural growth and heightened food security stress among smallholder food producers

portfolio choices in the presence of other risks the effects of multivariate risk are examined in a model of portfolio choice the conditions under which portfolio choices are separable from consumption decisions are derived unless the appropriate restrictions hold on investors preferences or on the probability distribution of risks the optimal portfolio is affected by other risks this requires generalizing the usual measures of risk aversion with one risky asset matrix measures of risk aversion are used to generalize the results of arrow 1965 and pratt 1964 concerning the effects of risk aversion and wealth on the optimal portfolio with two risky assets the choices made by two investors coincide if and only if their generalized risk aversion measures are identical ross s notion of stronger risk aversion is then used to characterize the effect of risk aversion on the level of investment in the riskier asset

labor market participation of chinese agricultural households empirical evidence from zhejiang province abstract this work is devoted to the analysis of the different labor market participation regimes of chinese farm households over the reform process in the 1980s and 1990s using household data over the period 1986 2002 from the province zhejiang we apply a multinomial logit model to empirically examine household farm and regional characteristics affecting the probability that farmers participate in one of four alternative labor market regimes as generally accepted off farm participation is the dominant form of farm households labor market participation but rural households show additionally a significant impact on rural employment mainly linked with non agricultural household business results suggest that labor market decisions are significantly related to several family farm and village characteristics in particular we find education to be a key determinant of participation furthermore results point to a higher probability of female household members to take up off farm work

agroclimatic shock income inequality and poverty evidence from burkina faso abstract this paper examines the impacts of agroclimatic shock on income inequality and poverty using household farm data from three agroecological zones of burkina faso together with income source decompositions of the gini coefficient and the foster greer thorbecke poverty index before and after a severe drought our findings reveal that because the poor lack acces to off farm income off farm income increases inequality and fails to shield poor households against agroclimatic risks the direction of the empirical relationship between changes in inequality and poverty after the drought depends critically on environmental variables and on apparent constraints on income diversification at different points in the income distribution

selling at the farmgate or traveling to market using detailed survey data from uganda this article examines whether coffee producers sell to itinerant traders or directly to markets where they can get a higher price but must incur a transport cost we find that selling to the market is more likely when the quantity sold is large and the market is close by wealthy farmers are less likely to sell to the market possibly because the shadow value of their time is higher but if they have a large quantity of coffee for sale they are more likely to sell it to the market they are also more likely to travel to a distant market these findings are consistent with their better ability to pay for public transportation we find no evidence that the decision to sell at the farmgate is driven by a self control motive

choice of varieties by sri lanka rice farmers comparing alternative decision models sri lanka rice farmers are faced with a choice between traditional and high yielding rice varieties three risky choice models are compared to explain producer behavior forty farmers with typically small rice areas were studied choice criteria compared were multiple two attribute utility maximization single profit attribute utility maximization and expected profit maximization expected utility maximization performed better than expected profit maximization single attribute utility maximization outperformed the more complex multiattribute utility model the importance of careful elicitation of subjective probability distributions is emphasized rice farmers appear to allocate their land between available technologies in an economically rational way

assessment economic policy towards the environment the article presents an overview and assessment of economic policy toward the environment the first part reviews the core theoretical literature a classification of environmental externalities differentiated by institutional contexts is presented conventional economic theory approaches are reviewed with their associated strong informational assumptions these are then relaxed demonstrating why cooperative solutions to global externalities may prove hard to achieve having reviewed the theoretical nature of environmental problems the article then turns to policy options including privatization taxes and marketable permits and presents a number of suggestions for future policy copyright 1990 by oxford university press

insurance market efficiency and crop choices in pakistan this paper tests the efficiency of insurance markets in the pakistan punjab by examining how crop choices are affected by the presence of price and yield risk we estimate reduced form and structural models of crop choices although we cannot reject the hypothesis that village members efficiently share risk among themselves production choices are shown to depend on risk existing risk sharing and selfinsurance mechanisms thus imperfectly protect punjab farmers against village level shocks results also indicate that households respond to consumption price risk thereby suggesting that empirical and theoretical work on risk should avoid putting an exclusive emphasis on yield and output price risk

household inventories and marketed surplus in semisubsistence agriculture a model of semisubsistence agriculture explicitly accounting for the ability of farm households to hold inventories of staple foods is developed comparative statics analysis highlights the potential importance of wealth effects attributable to price induced changes in the value of household inventories empirical results for three groups of households in an indian village confirm that failure to account for household inventories leads to an overstatement of the responsiveness of both consumption demand and marketed surplus

weather risk wages in kind and the off farm labor supply of agricultural households in a developing country this article investigates the effects of weather risk on the off farm labor supply of agricultural households in a developing country distinguishing different types of off farm labor markets a multivariate two limit tobit model is applied to data from india the regression results show that the share of the off farm labor supply increases with weather risk the increase is much larger in the case of nonagricultural work than in the case of agricultural wage work and the increase is much larger in the case of agricultural wages paid in kind than in the cash wage case suggesting farmers considerations of food security copyright 2007 oxford university press

introducing socioeconomic characteristics into production analysis under risk a theoretical framework is developed to study the effects of socioeconomic factors on farmers risk attitudes and production decisions no maintained assumptions about the individual s utility are required a key element in this framework is the categorization of socioeconomic factors by their effect on the farmer s risk attitudes a simple methodology for this categorization based on the equivalence between the arrow pratt measure of risk aversion and the probability of winning demanded is proposed the latter is illustrated with data collected in a survey of 180 israeli farmers from 20 villages

using stated preferences and beliefs to identify the impact of risk on poor households abstract whilst the importance of uncertainty in shaping economic behaviour of poor households is widely acknowledged empirically identifying the impact of risk is difficult by using data on risk preferences and perceptions of risk collected through hypothetical questions in combination with more traditional measures of a household s ability to deal with risk this article identifies the impact of risk on production decisions it shows both that data on stated preferences and beliefs can be usefully utilised to explain household behaviour and that risk has a significant impact on the production decisions of poor households

producer attitudes toward output price risk experimental evidence from the lab and from the field a number of agricultural and food policy instruments are predicated on the idea that producers dislike output price risk we test experimentally some theoretical predictions about the behavior of producers in the face of output price risk namely sandmo s 1971 prediction that price risk at the extensive margin causes risk averse producers to decrease how much they produce and batra and ullah s 1974 prediction that price risk at the intensive margin causes producers whose preferences exhibit decreasing absolute risk aversion to further decrease how much they produce we do so in labs with us college students as well as in the field with peruvian farmers first as regards price risk at the extensive margin we find no support for sandmo s prediction second consistent with batra and ullah s prediction we find that output decreases in response to price risk at the intensive margin when imposing a linear relationship between output and price risk when relaxing the assumption of linearity between output and price risk however we find a nonmonotonic relationship between output and price risk taken together these results are broadly inconsistent with expected utility theory alternative models of behavior in the face of risk such as prospect theory may explain the behavior we observe

long run comparative statics under output and land price uncertainty several authors have noticed that in the uncertain short run the supply function may slope downward and the input demand functions may slope upward these possibilities prevent the setup of unambiguous tests of rational behavior in this article testable hypotheses for the competitive firm operating in a price uncertain environment are derived assuming a long run horizon some of these hypotheses take the form of slutsky type relations involving the relative input demand functions the ratios of input to output quantities homogeneity restrictions involving input and output mean prices in general are absent under uncertainty conditions for restoring this homogeneity are also discussed the main result is the rediscovery of the importance of relative quantities for the analysis of a long run equilibrium

transactions costs and agricultural household supply response we develop and estimate a model of supply response when transactions costs create a situation where some producers buy others sell and others do not participate in markets we present two rationales for why producing households may have different relationships to the market proportional and fixed transactions costs using data on mexican corn producers we estimate an empirical model that allows for separate tests of the significance of both types of transactions costs revealing that both fixed and proportional transactions costs matter for the estimation the results provide consistent estimates of supply elasticity and measures of the relative importance of factors determining both proportional and fixed transactions costs

tenure security resource poverty public programs and household plot level conservation investments in the highlands of northern ethiopia land degradation poses a serious problem for the livelihoods of rural producers furthermore there is rarely enough private investment taking place to commensurate the scale of the problem this article examines the role of tenure insecurity resource poverty risk and time preferences and community led land conservation on differentiated patterns of household investment in land conservation in northern ethiopia we control for biophysical household characteristics market access conditions and village level factors investments in soil bunds and stone terraces are specifically studied so as to capture the link between these various factors and the durability of conservation investments we introduce the distinction between the determinants of the decision to invest and how much to invest in conservation regression results show that publicly led conservation programs seem to significantly stimulate private investment a host of plot level variables and household perceptions of returns on conservation investments expressed in terms of perceived improvements in land quality and increased crop yields were found to be critical to the decision to invest and intensify soil conservation the evidence on the significance of households attitudes toward risk aversion suggests the important role of risk and the household s risk bearing capacity in the decision to intensify conservation measures at the same time tenure security indicators and households resource endowments resource poverty had weaker effects in increasing willingness to invest and the level of investment made the policy implications of these results point to the importance of agricultural research and extension efforts that target technologies which reduce household risk and poverty while enabling sustainable investments in conservation measures by individual households

the microeconomics of the developmental paradox on the political economy of food price policy abstract a longstanding puzzle in comparative economics is the developmental paradox the tendency for government support for agriculture to increase with national income and to decrease with the proportion of economic activity and of the population in agriculture this paper offers a microeconomic explanation for that puzzle it establishes analytically the microeconomic basis for coalition alignments with respect to food price policy then numerically simulates the comparative static effects of alternative food policies on coalition structure a parsimonious household model applied to a heterogeneously endowed society demonstrates how variation in individual welfare effects might beget distinct coalitions in the debate over food price policy and how those policies are inextricably linked to land population and technology policies in food agriculture moreover coalition alignments on particular policy debates are path dependent in particular food price policy creates its own political support

on the costs of food price fluctuations in low income countries abstract conventional welfare measures of the costs of food price fluctuations in low income countries are extended to allow for both economic growth and food security effects the analysis reveals that growth and food security effects may dominate more conventional welfare costs of food price fluctuations although estimating the empirical magnitude of the effects is hampered by the lack of consensus on the extent to which food price fluctuations actually reduce economic growth and food security even if the welfare costs of food price fluctuations are high there are many challenges to the design and successful implementation of price stabilization schemes

agricultural commercialization impacts on income and nutrition and implications for policy abstract agricultural technology and commercialization are complementary stimulators of the rural economic growth process specialization and commercialization of farming households within a more diversified economy is part of the development process but there are concerns that the process by passes the poor this article discusses the evidence on poverty and nutritional impacts of agricultural commercialization and examines how policies can affect the outcome of the commercialization process principle driving forces of the commercialization process include a conducive macroeconomic environment non distortive trade policies and infrastructure development as well as a legal and contractual environment in which farmers and processors may operate efficiently policies related to these driving forces will very much influence the nature and speed of the agricultural commercialization process these in turn will largely determine the impacts of the process on farm household income and nutritional status

on price risk and the inverse farm size productivity relationship abstract the oft observed inverse relationship between farm size and productivity has elicited several explanations having important policy and theoretical implications using advances in the analysis of price risk effects on producer behavior and a simple two period model of an agricultural household that both produces and consumes under price uncertainty at the time labor allocation decisions are made this paper demonstrates analytically that a non degenerate land distribution and price risk can together produce an inverse relationship even absent any of the more common explanations empirical evidence from madagascar confirms the plausibility of this intuitive explanation for the phenomenon

input subsidies cash constraints and timing of input supply is low input use by poor smallholder farmers caused by time inconsistent behavior or by limited ability to buy inputs are input subsidies the best solution to stimulate input demand or are there smarter solutions these issues are investigated by combining survey data stated preference questions and randomized experiments in malawi the demand for fertilizer at harvest time and at planting time farm gate shadow prices for fertilizer and the gap between the willingness to accept wta and willingness to pay wtp prices for a standard input package were investigated significant effects of timing and of cash constraints were found suggesting the possibility that smarter designs exist such as distribution of smaller packages from harvest time to planting time

health and portfolio choices a diffidence approach the effect of health status on portfolio decisions has been extensively studied from an empirical viewpoint in this paper we propose a theoretical model of individuals choice of financial assets under bivariate utility functions depending on wealth and health our approach makes an extensive use of the diffidence theorem we establish the conditions under which the share of wealth held in risky assets falls as 1 individuals health status deteriorates and 2 individuals health status becomes risky these conditions are shown to be related to the behavior of the intensities of correlation aversion and of cross prudence as wealth increases

modeling farm households price responses in the presence of transaction costs and heterogeneity in labor markets we develop a farm household model to analyze price responses of farm households this model incorporates various types of transaction costs as well as labor heterogeneity nonproportional variable transaction costs or labor heterogeneity imply that production and consumption decisions become nonseparable even when the household buys or sells labor an empirical model is estimated using data from midwest poland the results show that nonproportional variable transaction costs and labor heterogeneity significantly influence household behavior not all price elasticities however change significantly if these are neglected

a novel time varying bullwhip effect metric an application to promotional sales abstract bullwhip effect is a problem of paramount importance that reduces competitiveness of supply chains around the world a significant effort is being devoted by both practitioners and academics to understand its causes and to reduce its pernicious consequences nevertheless limited research has been carried out to analyse potential metrics to measure it that typically are summarized in the coefficient of variation ratio of different echelons demand this work proposes a new metric based on a time varying extension of the aforementioned bullwhip effect metric by employing recursive estimation algorithms expressed in the state space framework to provide at each single time period a real time bullwhip effect estimate in order to illustrate the results a case study based on a serially linked supply chain of two echelons from the chemical industry is analysed particularly this metric is employed to analyse the effect of promotional campaigns on the bullwhip effect on a real time fashion the results show that effectively the bullwhip effect is not constant along time but interestingly it is reduced during the promotional periods and it is bigger before and after the promotion takes place

the forward looking competitive firm under uncertainty under realistic circumstances forward looking risk averse firms will produce more than risk neutral firms and a mean preserving spread of the price distribution will increase risk averse firms production these results depend on firms realizing that prices of inputs required for production in subsequent periods are contemporaneously correlated with output prices this study rationalizes previously unexplained real world behavior such as the spreading of sales over time and short run production or storage at an expected loss the present findings imply that empirical work should not assume nor should it find a monotonic relationship between output and the level of risk or of risk aversion

liberalization and food price distributions arch m evidence from madagascar abstract there is no well articulated theory of how stochastic food prices respond to economic liberalization measures a surprising oversight in the vast literature on market oriented reforms this paper presents reduced form estimates of the effects of liberalization measures on food commodity prices in madagascar using autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic in mean arch m methods the data indicate that the short term effects of liberalization on the mean and variance of food prices vary substantially by commodity region and season in the long term liberalization increases both the mean and the variance of food prices the abandonment of a quantity rationed state marketing system with administrative pricing also leads to smaller inter regional and interseasonal differences in mean food prices and a sharp increase in price autocorrelation real exchange rates have pronounced positive effects on mean food prices but these effects emerge indirectly rather than directly through induced changes to border parity prices

the effects of china s sloping land conversion program on agricultural households in the late 1990s china aimed to mitigate environmental degradation from agricultural production activities by introducing the world s largest payments for environmental services pes program the sloping land conversion program slcp in order to analyze its effects on agricultural households we develop a microeconomic agricultural household model ahm which can model the production consumption and non farm labor supply decisions of agricultural households in rural china in a theoretically consistent fashion based on this theoretical model we derive an empirical specification that we use to econometrically estimate the effects of the slcp and other exogenous factors using a large longitudinal farm household survey data set we estimate the empirical model with the hausman taylor estimation method the empirical results are generally consistent with the results of our theoretical comparative static analysis e g that the slcp significantly decreases agricultural production while the slcp increases non farm labor supply and total consumption in the yellow river basin these effects could not be observed in the yangtze river basin the recent reduction of the slcp compensation payment rates has had some notable but generally small effects

the roles of land tenure reforms and land markets in the context of population growth and land use intensification in africa this article reviews the past and potential future roles of land tenure reforms and land markets in sub saharan africa ssa as responses to population growth in the process of land use intensification and livelihood transformation the farm size distribution and the existence of an inverse relationship ir between farm size and land productivity in ssa and the implications of this relationship for efficiency and equity are investigated more secure property rights and removal of restrictions on land markets have the potential to create both efficiency and equity benefits but there are high risks of elite capture of large land areas with inefficient and inequitable outcomes this situation is the case not only in land abundant areas but also in urban and peri urban areas where increasingly larger proportions of people will make their living increasing population pressure in densely populated rural areas contributes to more rapid rural urban migration and creating alternative livelihood opportunities for the migrating youth population is essential to achieving economic development with social stability

nonstructural risk attitude estimation this paper presents an econometric approach to risk attitude estimation that does not require joint estimation of the structure of the firm s technology and input decision rules the nonstructural approach replaces optimal input choice with the assumption that farmers optimally manage their portfolios of productive activities by thus shifting the focus from the detailed production decisions of the farm manager to the net returns of the whole farm operation the modeling problem is simplified the nonstructural approach is used to estimate risk attitudes in three indian villages the results are compared to previous experimental and econometric estimates from the same villages

separability and risk in the static household production model the household production model highlights the possible interdependence of consumption and production decisions in the farm household the structure of this interdependence significantly affects the analytics both theoretical and econometric of farm households singh squire and straus 20 have an excellent discussion of this interdependence and its methodological implications a particular type of interdependence called interchangeably recursiveness or separability allows production decisions to be made independently of consumption decisions although the latter depends on the former through the budget constraint this separability is of interest because it justifies a large number of well developed methodological approaches in farm household studies among these being the various duality theory approaches sasaki and maruyama 19 and jorgenson and lau 10 both and independently found the existence of perfectly competitive goods and factor markets to be sufficient for the existence of separability under deterministic conditions while there are a large number of things that can upset this result even in the deterministic setting e g nonhomogeneity of labor as in kuroda and yotopoulos 13 and lopez 14 the recognition of the role of risk appears especially threatening to separability even in a competitive setting as pointed out by barnum and squire 1 if contingent claims markets exist or if households are risk neutral separability exists under risk situations but insurance markets may not exist and for many risks faced by the farming households could not unless heavily subsidized exist furthermore households have been variously shown to be risk averse 15 7 4 roe and graham tomasi 18 utilizing a multiplicative yield risk in the context of a dynamic model concluded that on the whole independence does not hold and estimating equations from certainty theory are not appropriate thus with respect to risk one can say that the die is loaded against separability this paper aims to show that there are risk specifications which allow separability for the household production model even in the absence of the contingent claims market in section ii we introduce the standard model of the household with commercial production it involves a household that produces an output which it partly consumes and partly sells in the market risk enters the revenue function either additively or multiplicatively we then introduce two definitions of separability in the sense of efficiency and in the sense of elasticity we show in section ii that additive risk whether on yield or on monetary revenue allows sepa

urban bias in price risk the geography of food price distributions in low income economies the geography of agricultural marketing has important implications for the stochastic distribution of agricultural commodity prices this article proposes that objective food price risk differs between rural and urban areas of infrastructure poor economies characterised by spatially concentrated patterns of foodgrains storage this difference implies an urban bias having adverse welfare effects for peasants who seasonally switch between net food seller and net food buyer positions empirical analysis of rice price data from madagascar suggests that price variability and skewness indeed differ between rural and urban areas in ways that adversely influence the relative welfare of rural peasants

risk and household grain management in developing countries a dynamic model is presented of a household s joint production storage and trade decisions when facing transaction costs and risk in prices and yields grain management decisions balance the goals of maximising profits and reducing consumption price risk model solutions calibrated to chinese data show that grain s consumption role makes it an attractive form of precautionary saving even when households have access to credit the joint nature of production and savings decisions limits the income loss associated with risk coping and the desire to store grain can explain why subsistence households are frequently net purchasers but rarely net sellers of grain

compensated optimal response under uncertainty in agricultural household models abstract this study derives the qualitative properties of a household s optimal consumption family labour hired labour and non labour input choices under price and or output risk through a slutsky type compensation without imposing any restriction on risk preference structure or production technology these compensated responses provide the underpinning for welfare analysis in agricultural household models under risk the framework for the evaluation of welfare effects of product and factor price interventions in a setting of output and price risk is developed the paper also outlines an empirical model for estimation of the compensated demand and supply responses and for validation of the paper s analytical results

a comment on the welfare impacts of commodity price volatility evidence from rural ethiopia this comment discusses the robustness of the policy implications of bellemare barrett and just s paper the welfare impacts of commodity price volatility evidence from rural ethiopia 2013 bellemare barrett and just present a theoretical and empirical approach to the estimation of willingness to pay for food price stabilization that accounts for the covolatility of prices making a significant contribution to the literature however in the course of applying their model to data from rural ethiopia the authors make an empirical assumption in the treatment of zero valued income households that produces a distortion in the distribution of household budget shares this comment identifies the consequences of this assumption for the estimated relationship of poor and wealthy households willingness to pay for food commodity price stabilization and shows the results one would obtain under a different distribution preserving treatment of zero valued income the key finding is that the distributional benefit incidence of food price stabilization found in bellemare barrett and just 2013 is reversed when the budget share of marketable surplus is calculated over observed as opposed to mean household income where available

impact of third party contract enforcement in agricultural markets a field experiment in vietnam we study the effect of alleviating the information asymmetry regarding product quality that is widespread in contracts between agricultural producers and buyers in developing countries opportunistic buyers may underreport quality levels to farmers to reduce the price that they have to pay in response farmers may curb investment thereby negatively affecting farm productivity in an experiment we entitle randomly selected smallholder dairy farmers in vietnam who are contracted by a large company to independently verify milk testing results results indicate that treatment farmers use 12 more inputs and they also increase their output significantly some wider research and policy implications are discussed

a definition of luxury and necessity for cardinal utility functions this note proposes a definition of luxury and necessity that is useful when utility functions are cardinal the author offers an exposition using the profit function representation of preferences and also gives some motivation applications are found in the theory of the consumer in an intertemporal setting commodity price stabilization theory and a consumer s decision to hedge in a futures market copyright 1989 by royal economic society