evaluating program evaluations new evidence on commonly used nonexperimental methods in this paper we follow previous research by using experimental data to assess the two nonexperimental evaluation approaches our data are from a series of social experiments conducted in several states during the 1980s to evaluate programs aimed at helping welfare recipients find jobs we simulate the two nonexperimental approaches by creating comparison groups from the true control groups and by comparing the resultant nonexperimental estimates of program effects with experimentally derived estimates of program effects although experimental data are required to provide an assessment of the nonexperimental approaches they are not required to create the comparison groups in practice thus our results have direct implications for choosing a nonexperimental evaluation strategy when an experiment is not feasible the remainder of this paper is organized as follows section i describes the social experiments and the various comparison groups created for the analysis section ii discusses the methods used to generate and assess the nonexperimental estimates section iii presents the empirical results and section iv offers some conclusions excerpt

long run effects of public sector sponsored training in west germany between 1991 and 1997 west germany spent on average about 3 6 bn euro per year on public sector sponsored training programmes for the unemployed we base our empirical analysis on a new administrative data base that plausibly allows for selectivity correction by microeconometric matching methods we identify the effects of different types of training programmes over a horizon of more than seven years using bias corrected weighted multiple neighbours matching we find that all programmes have negative effects in the short run and positive effects over a horizon of about four years however for substantive training programmes with duration of about two years gains in employment probabilities of more than 10 points appear to be sustainable but come at the price of large negative lock in effects

planning under incomplete information and the ratchet effect abstract central planning of production is usually performed under asymmetric information the firm in general has more information about its productive possibilities than the central planner from now on for short cp this justifies the use of incentives schemes in which the cp does not directly fix activity levels casual observation of such existing schemes suggests that the time dimensions is crucial for their working typically the cp revises the incentive scheme over time to take into account the information provided by the firm s performance managers of centrally planned economies as well as economists have long recognized that this revision induces firms to underproduce in order to avoid demanding schemes in the future this is the ratchet effect it is purpose of the present paper to study the ratchet effect under the non commitment assumption which we believe to be more realistic the inadequacy of conceptual tools made if difficult in the past to consider such an assumption now basic research on dynamic games with incomplete information recently resulted in new ideas which look particularly relevant for a theoretical analysis of the problem

does a minimum job search requirement reduce time on unemployment payments evidence from the jobseeker diary in australia this study examines the impact of thejobseeker diary jsd a program designed to increase the job search effort of unemployed persons in australia the jsd program is distinguished by combining a focus on work search verification with large scale imple mentation applying a quasi experimental matching method to data on unemployment spells occurring in 1997 98 the authors find that jsd participation was associated with an increased rate of exit from unemployment payment recipiency and a shorter total time spent on payments payment receipt duration is estimated to have fallen for about one half of jsd participants the largest effects of the jsd occurred for payment recipients for whom labor demand conditions were the most favorable cost benefit analysis suggests a fairly large net societal gain per program participant this study examines a large scale interven tion intended to increase job search ef fort of unemployed persons in australia the intervention the jobseeker diary jsd is a work search verification program that re quires unemployment payment recipients to complete a fortnightly biweekly diary in which details of a specified minimum number of job applications must be recorded the scale of the jsd program and its focus on work search verification make it unique in the international context

a segment level model of category volume and brand choice it is an everyday marketplace occurrence that brands lose and gain share however a brand s sales gain or loss can be attributable to very different factors and thus understanding the sources of sales gain or loss would seem to be an important aspect of a brand manager s job the primary purpose of this research is to develop a model that can answer the following questions i what are the sources of gain or loss of a brand s sales due to category volume and brand switching ii what consumer and marketing characteristics affect consumers purchase frequency of the product category and that of different brands iii do all consumers behave similarly or are there distinct segments which respond to marketing actions differently iv if such segments exist what is the size and composition of each segment and what is the appropriate strategy for each group of consumers our modeling approach which decomposes a brand s sales into category volume and brand choice components has many similarities and also several differences with traditional approaches similar to the nbd and dirichlet models we assume that a consumer s category purchase rate follows a poisson distribution and the number of purchases per brand follows a multinomial distribution our model differs from traditional models by including marketing mix variables by accounting for loyal or near loyal consumers by explicitly incorporating consideration sets and by segmenting consumers on the basis of their brand perceptions and their responses to marketing mix variables we account for consumer hetereogeneity by identifying homogeneous latent segments that capture differences in consumers response to marketing variables in both brand choice and category volume behavior calibration of the category volume and brand choice models and the separation of loyalty and switching segments are done simultaneously so that there is no need to assume any specific hierarchy and in contrast to the usual assumption of independence between choice and volume which may be unreasonable at the aggregate level the requirement is that choice and volume decisions be independent only at the segment level we investigate the properties of our model in the context of a national survey of supermarket purchases of jumbo paper towels 2 500 households were surveyed who were asked to provide information on rolls of paper towels bought in the last 4 weeks rolls of each brand of paper towel bought in the last 4 weeks brand usually bought brands that a household bought or would consider buying average price paid or expected for each brand bought or considered ratings on 20 brand attributes e g strength absorbency etc and demographic information e g family size we found that not only did the modeling framework outperform a variety of competing models it also provided insights into the competitive structure in this market the loyal segments could be distinguished on the basis of price sensitivity less than 10 of the loyal households were price insensitive and in general households showed increasing price sensitivity in their category volume decisions if they had more children and were heavier users of paper towels this was consistent across all brands the model estimates that about 71 of the households are switchers and five switching segments are needed to characterize household purchase patterns two of the largest switching segments labeled as price sensitive and value segments are very price sensitive in both their brand choice and category volume components in both these segments private label brands are dominant with about 30 share segments also emerged on the basis of strength absorbency and tearing ease of paper towels interestingly we found that brand shares within these segments are quite consistent with the objective quality ratings of brands as given by consumer reports finally price elasticity analysis for one of the brands bounty reveals that a 5 drop in bounty s price increases its sales by 13 6 almost half of this increase comes from brand switching with the other half coming from increases in category volume e g stockpiling bounty gains the most from the price sensitive segments price and value segments private labels are hurt least by bounty s price cut

competition and the ratchet effect in labor markets the ratchet effect refers to a situation where workers subject to performance pay choose to restrict their output because they rationally anticipate that firms will respond to higher output levels by raising output requirements or by cutting pay we model this effect as a multiperiod principal agent problem with hidden information and study its robustness to labor market competition both theoretically and experimentally consistent with our theoretical model we observe substantial ratchet effects in the absence of competition which are nearly eliminated when competition is introduced this is true regardless of whether market conditions favor firms or workers

the long term effects of job search requirements evidence from the uk jsa reform this paper investigates long term returns from unemployment compensation exploiting variation from the uk jsa reform of 1996 which implied a major increase in job search requirements for eligibility and in the related administrative hurdle search theory predicts that such changes should raise the proportion of non claimant nonemployed with consequences on search effort and labor market attachment and lower the reservation wage of the unemployed with negative effects on post unemployment wages i test these ideas on longitudinal data from social security records llmdb using a difference in differences approach i find that individuals who start an unemployment spell soon after jsa introduction as opposed to six months earlier are 2 5 3 more likely to move from unemployment into incapacity benefits spells and 4 5 less likely to have positive earnings in the following year this latter employment effect only vanishes four years after the initial unemployment shock also annual earnings for the treated individuals are lower than for the non treated these results suggest that while tighter search requirements were successful in moving individuals off unemployment benefits they were not successful in moving them onto long lasting or better jobs with fairly long lasting unintended consequences on a number of labor market outcomes

static modeling of dynamic recreation behavior implications for prediction and welfare estimation abstract this paper examines the consequences of using a static model of recreation trip taking behavior when the underlying decision problem is dynamic specifically we examine the implications for trip forecasting and welfare estimation using a panel dataset of lake michigan salmon anglers for the 1996 and 1997 fishing seasons we derive and estimate both a structural dynamic model using bellman s equation and a reduced form static model with trip probability expressions mimicking those of the dynamic model we illustrate an inherent identification problem in the reduced form model that creates biased welfare estimates and we discuss the general implications of this for the interpretation of preference parameters in static models we then use both models to simulate trip taking behavior and show that although their in sample trip forecasts are similar their welfare estimates and out of sample forecasts are quite different

an analysis of the impact of ceta programs on participants earnings this paper provides estimates of the impact of ceta programs on participants postprogram earnings using matched comparison groups developed from a nearestneighbor matching technique our basic results indicate that ceta has a negative and statistically significant earnings impact for adult men and a modest but not statistically significant positive earnings impact for adult women this pattern however is quite sensitive to whether individuals without recent labor market attachment are included in the comparison group and to how close to the date of enrollment preprogram earnings are measured

measuring the effect of subsidized training programs on movements in and out of employment despite over two decades of u s experience in operating large scale subsidized training programs for low income and unemployed workers the effects of these programs are still highly controversial the controversy arises from the difficulty of specifying the model of participant outcomes in the absence of training that is necessary in any nonexperimental program evaluation in this paper we suggest that some of these difficulties may be overcome by focusing on a very simple measure of outcomes namely the probability of employment we present a variety of estimates of the effect of training on the probability of employment for the 1976 cohort of adult male participants in the comprehensive employment and training act ceta program our methods range from a simple comparison of pre and post training employment probabilities between trainees and nonparticipants to a fully specified first order markov model of employment probabilities with individual heterogeneity there is consistent evidence across methods that ceta participation increased the probability of employment in the three years after training by from 2 to 5 percentage points classroom training programs appear to have had significantly larger effects than on the job programs although the estimated effects of both kinds of programs are positive we also find that movements in and out of employment for trainees and nonparticipants are reasonably well described by a first order process conditional on individual heterogeneity in the context of this model ceta participation appears to have increased both the probability of moving into employment and the probability of continuing employment

unemployment equilibria and input prices theory and evidence from the united states the paper develops an efficiency wage model where input prices affect the equlibrium rate of unemployment we show that a simple framework based on only two prices the real price of oil and the real rate of interest is able to explain the main post war movements in the rate of u s joblessnss the equations do well in forecasting unemployment many out of sample and provide evidence that the oil price spike associated with iraq s invasion of kuweit appears to be a component of the mystery recession which followed

training and the time to find a job in israel using high frequency data for israel it is found that trainees exit unemployment at a much faster rate than comparable unemployed who did not receive training it is argued that this powerful training effect is unlikely to be simply the result of positive self selection of trainees the training effect is detected when using nonparametric estimation methods parametric methods fail to pick it up because of a very large exit spike in the hazard function which occurs when the training is completed other findings include the following the duration of unemployment varies directly with the duration of entitlement to unemployment benefit as well as the replacement ratio also the exit hazard from unemployment rises as the benefit entitlement period draws to a close

identity and the economics of organizations on plebes first day at west point called r day they strip down to their underwear their hair is cut off they are put in uniform they then must address an older cadet with the proper salute and with the statement sir new cadet doe reports to the cadet in the red sash for the first time as ordered plebes must stand and salute and repeat and stand and salute and repeat until they get it exactly right all the while being reprimanded for every tiny mistake in the summary of david lipsky 2003 pp 145 154 who spent four years tracking a company of cadets at west point on r day you surrender your old self in stages but r day is just the beginning of the training and personal re engineering that is to come so that west point graduates emerge four years later as loyal officers in the u s army lipsky shows that despite some failure this tough program is remarkably successful in creating officers with the will to lead in battle economists current picture of organizations and work incentives has no place for the west point program and the motivations it seeks to inculcate in recruits in a standard economic model an individual s preferences are fixed and utility depends only on pecuniary variables the army s aim at west point is to change cadets preferences they wish to inculcate non economic motives in the cadets so that they have the same goals as the u s army alternatively stated the goal of west point is to change the identity of the cadets so they will think of themselves above all else as officers in the u s army they will feel bad about themselves they will lose utility if they fall short of the ideals of such an officer this change in identity

evaluating the impacts of washington state repeated job search services on the earnings of prime age female tanf recipients this paper uses an unbalanced panel dataset to evaluate how repeated job search services jss and other personal characteristics affect the quarterly earnings of the prime age female welfare recipients in the state of washington we propose a joint dependent framework for the probability of employment and potential earnings or hours or hourly wage rates to facilitate the investigation of the issues of joint determination of employment and potential earnings and to allow for factors to have different impacts on employment status and on quarterly earnings we have also suggested formulae to compute the dynamic impact of jss on duration and earnings both the maximum likelihood ml and semi parametric estimates are provided we find that the results are sensitive to the choice of models and estimation methods for a randomly assigned individual the first second and three or more jss raised the short run and long run earnings by 5 0 0 and 1 0 0 respectively based on the mle and by 56 6 36 2 36 9 and 50 7 36 2 36 9 respectively based on the semi parametric tobit model we have also conducted specification analysis the results appear to favor semi parametric type ii tobit model estimates copyright 2007 john wiley sons ltd

a theory of trade secrets in firms this article provides a simple theoretical model of trade secrets in hierarchical firms a crucial assumption is that each manager has access to trade secrets pertaining to his own hierarchical level as well as to all lower levels the article explores some implications of this assumption for optimal degree of trade secrets accumulation and protection as well as for the wage structure in firms in addition the model implies that managers may have an incentive to overpay their subordinates and protect their firms trade secrets too much

the ratchet effect and the market for secondhand workers workers in a long term relationship often have an incentive to hide their ability early in the relationship to avoid having the firm increase the level of output expected from them in the future we show that competition for older workers will permit the implementation of efficient piece rate contracts when the difficulty of the job is unobserved by the firm gibbons 1987 has shown that all piece rate contracts will be inefficient together these results may explain why piece rates are common in some jobs such as agricultural work and sales and not as popular for many manufacturing jobs

subsidised training and youth employment distinguishing unobserved heterogeneity from state dependence in labour market histories using the 1990 2 wave of the french labour force survey to study the employment histories of young people i consider transitions between six labour market states employment contracts whether permanent or temporary unemployment training education and non participation i use a fixed effect estimator in a dynamic multinomial logit model which can accommodate any form of unobserved heterogeneity in levels this analysis can be extended to markov processes of any order i relate heterogeneity components to individual and family characteristics by using simulated maximum likelihood methods these procedures allow evaluation of the effects training schemes have on youth employment histories

multiskilling technical change and the japanese firm worker cooperation with technical change accounts for much of the success of large japanese firms the authors argue t hat this cooperative attitude is due in large part to multiskilling by training workers in more than one job a firm assures its workers th at they will not be made worse off by labor saving innovations in a simple model the authors show that multiskilling leads to an endoge nous distinction between permanent and temporary workers wages that are attached to the worker rather than the job and comparative advantage in process style innovations there is even a role for the company song copyright 1993 by royal economic society

the impact of ceta programs on earnings a review of the literature this paper reviews and assesses evaluations of the comprehensive employment and training act ceta programs most of the studies found that the programs raised earnings by 200 to 600 annually in current dollars the programs were found to be more effective for women than men and public service employment and on the job training were generally found to be more effective activities than classroom training and work experience in spite of the broad overall agreement the studies differed significantly in many of their specific impact findings the nonexperimental nature of the data required the studies to make specific assumptions about selection procedures used to determine which individuals received training and the results are sensitive to the specific measures adopted data limitation and the inability to adequately test the validity of selection processes assumed make it impossible to determine which studies modeled the process correctly

state dependence serial correlation and heterogeneity in intertemporal labor force participation of married women a dynamic search framework is developed to analyze the intertemporal labor force participation behavior of married women using longitudinal data to allow for a rich dynamic structure the sensitivity to alternative distributional assumptions is evaluated using linear probability and probit models the dynamic probit models are estimated using maximum simulated likelihood msl estimation to overcome the computational difficulties inherent in maximum likelihood estimation of models with nontrivial error structures the results find that participation decisions are characterized by significant state dependence unobserved heterogeneity and negative serial correlation in the error component the hypothesis that fertility decisions are exogenous to women s participation decisions is rejected when dynamics are ignored however there is no evidence against this hypothesis in dynamic model specifications women s participation response is stronger to permanent than current nonlabor income reflecting unobserved taste factors

the role of shocks and institutions in the rise of european unemployment the aggregate evidence two key facts about european unemployment must be explained the rise in unemployment since the 1960s and the heterogeneity of individual country experiences while adverse shocks can potentially explain much of the rise in unemployment there is insufficient heterogeneity in these shocks to explain cross country differences alternatively while explanations focusing on labour market institutions explain current heterogeneity well many of these institutions pre date the rise in unemployment based on a panel of institutions and shocks for 20 oecd nations since 1960 we find that the interaction between shocks and institutions is crucial to explaining both stylised facts

incentives between firms and within this paper reviews the significant progress in agency theory i e the economic theory of incentives during the 1990s with an eye toward applications to supply transactions i emphasize six recent models in three pairs 1 new foundations for the theory of incentive contracts 2 new directions in incentive theory and 3 new applications to supply transactions by reviewing these six models i hope to establish three things first the theory of incentive contracts needed and received new foundations second new directions in incentive theory teach us that incentive contracts are not the only source of incentives finally and especially relevant to supply transactions the integration decision is an instrument in the incentive problem

earnings and employment effects of continuous off the job training in east germany after unification the effects of continuous off the job training oft for east germans after unification are analyzed in terms of their earnings and employment probabilities using the potential outcome approach to causality as general framework different matching procedures are suggested for the estimation they allow for permanent and transitory shocks that influence oft participation and labor market outcomes the matching procedures also take account of individually different starting dates the data are taken from the german socio economic panel gsoep 1990 1994 this dataset is very informative with respect to factors influencing the participation in training the results show no positive effects of training

unions collective relations laws and r d investment in emerging and developing countries abstract many scholars argue that workforce unionization leads to a reduction in r d investment because unions appropriate a share of the returns to successful inventive efforts on the other hand it is widely acknowledged that unions may encourage investment in r d because of increased cooperation between workers and management our empirical analysis on cross country firm level data from 23 emerging and developing countries reveals a negative association between workforce unionization and firms r d investment this association is particularly pronounced when unions are protected by strong collective relations laws supporting the notion that strong unions tax the returns to successful inventions our findings have implications for policy makers who seek to improve emerging countries chances of catching up to the technological frontier and for firm leaders concerned about the appropriation of returns to their r d investments

piece rate incentive schemes this paper uses recent results from incentive theory to study heretofore informal critiques of piece rate compensation schemes the informal critiques are based on the history of failed attempts to install piece rate compensation schemes at the turn of the century the formal analysis emphasizes the importance of information and commitment in contracting the main result is as follows in a work environment characterized by hidden information and a hidden action if neither the firm nor the worker can commit to future behavior then no compensation scheme piece rate or otherwise can induce the worker not to restrict output

evaluating the econometric evaluations of training programs with experimental data this paper takes the results of an employment and training program thatwas run as a field experiment in which the participants were randomlyassigned into a treatment or a control group and compares these results to the estimates that might have been produced by an econometrician who evaluated the program using the same econometric procedures that have been used in the program evaluation literature this comparison shows that many of these econometric procedures fail toreplicate the experimentally determined results and suggests that researchers should be aware of the potential for specification errorsin other nonexperimental evaluations copyright 1986 by american economic association

regulation and pricing of pharmaceuticals reference pricing or price cap regulation we study the relationship between regulatory regimes and pharmaceutical firms pricing strategies using a unique policy experiment from norway which in 2003 introduced a reference price rp system called index pricing for a sub sample of off patent pharmaceuticals replacing the existing price cap pc regulation we estimate the effect of the reform using a product level panel dataset covering the drugs exposed to rp and a large number of drugs still under pc regulation in the time before and after the policy change our results show that rp significantly reduced both brand name and generic prices within the reference group with the effect being stronger for brand names we also identify a negative cross price effect on therapeutic substitutes not included in the rp system in terms of policy implications the results suggest that rp is more effective than pc regulation in lowering drug prices while the cross price effect raises a concern about patent protection

labour market signalling and unemployment duration an empirical analysis using employer employee data we test the signalling hypothesis using detailed flow based employer employee data from denmark our main findings are the signalling value is proportional to the proportion of employees dismissed from the workplace and the signal is uniform across occupation groups

global unemployment shocks in this paper we use oecd unemployment data 1960 2002 to infer the nature of shocks to unemployment using factor analysis we find that two principal components can account for a large part of the variance of unemployment between and within countries

the demand for hours of labor direct evidence from california california s longstanding requirement that most women receive time and a half pay for workhours beyond eight in one day was extended to men in 1980 analyzing current population survey data from 1973 1985 and 1991 we find that this overtime penalty substantially reduced the amount of daily overtime worked by california men relative to men in other states comparisons that use women to control for california specific shocks show even stronger effects the estimates imply a price elasticity of demand for overtime hours of at least 20 5

salaries and piece rates compensation can take many forms remuneration can come as pecuniary payments as fringes such as health and pension benefits or as a nonpecuniary reward such as plush office furniture that costs the firm less than it benefits the worker a significant literature has examined the trade offs between pecuniary and nonpecuniary compensation the modern work having been pioneered by rosen 1974 more recently another body of literature has examined the selection of method of total compensation ignoring the distinction between pecuniary and nonpecuniary payment this work has focused on risk and incentive factors it has resulted in comparisons of compensation based on absolute output levels to that based on relative performance it has also led to explorations of the relation of compensation to experience over the work life 2 little attention has been paid to what may be among the most important and obvious distinction in methods of compensation namely the choice between a fixed salary for some period of time that is paying on the basis of input and some workers receive compensation that is specified in advance and not directly contingent on performance instead it depends on an input measure such as hours worked for others compensation is directly related to output this essay is an attempt to predict a firm s choice of compensation method piece rates are defined more rigorously among the more important factors discussed are worker heterogeneity incentives sorting considerations monitoring costs and asymmetric information one result is that salary workers tend to be of lower quality and more homogeneous than are their piece rate counterparts numerous additional results are provided helpful comments by victoria lazear and yoram weiss are gratefully acknowledged support was provided by the department of labor and the national science foundation 1 see lazear and rosen 1981 stiglitz 1981 holmstrom 1982 green and stokey 1983 2 see lazear 1979 1981 and harris and holmstrom in press

uncertainty task environment and organization design an empirical investigation the paper addresses two broad research questions 1 how do internal uncertainty associated with the task environment and external uncertainty arising from market volatility impact organization design 2 what are the relationships among various elements of organization design delegation of decision making incentives monitoring and internal labor market practices promotion training employment security we expand on prendergast 2002a who challenged the conventional view of a tradeoff between risk and incentives and build a single unified framework for answering our two research questions using a uniquely rich dataset that contains detailed information about the task environment of core employees and organization design at the individual group and firms levels in 530 minnesota firms in the mid 1990s we first find support for prendergast s key argument that internal uncertainty over which employees have control affects directly the allocation of decision making and only indirectly incentives via allocation of decision making this confirms similar findings by foss and laursen 2005 devaro and kurtulus 2010 and shi 2011 we also find that internal uncertainty has much impact on organization design through the choice of delegation of decision making at the employee level less so at the group level and very little at the firm level whereas external market uncertainty has little effect on organization design especially at the individual and group level decision making monitoring various internal labor market practices and incentives are strongly related to each other through substitution and complementarity

does work for the dole work an australian perspective on work experience programmes this study examines the effect of work for the dole wfd a community based work experience programme on transitions out of unemployment in australia to evaluate the wfd programme a quasi experimental exact matching approach is applied participation in the wfd programme is found to be associated with a large and significant adverse effect on the likelihood of exiting unemployment payments the main potential explanation is the existence of a lock in effect whereby programme participants reduce job search activity

mobility and the return to education testing a roy model with multiple markets self selected migration presents one potential explanation for why observed returns to a college education in local labor markets vary widely even though u s workers are highly mobile to assess the impact of self selection on estimated returns this paper first develops a roy model of mobility and earnings where workers choose in which of the 50 states plus the district of columbia to live and work available estimation methods are either infeasible for a selection model with so many alternatives or place potentially severe restrictions on earnings and the selection process this paper develops an alternative econometric methodology that combines lee s 1983 parametric maximum order statistic approach to reduce the dimensionality of the error terms with more recent work on semiparametric estimation of selection models e g ahn and powell 1993 the resulting semiparametric correction is easy to implement and can be adapted to a variety of other polychotomous choice problems the empirical work which uses 1990 u s census data confirms the role of comparative advantage in mobility decisions the results suggest that self selection of higher educated individuals to states with higher returns to education generally leads to upward biases in ols estimates of the returns to education in state specific labor markets while the estimated returns to a college education are significantly biased correcting for the bias does not narrow the range of returns across states consistent with the finding that the corrected return to a college education differs across the u s the relative state to state migration flows of college versus high school educated individuals respond strongly to differences in the return to education and amenities across states

growth wealth and the natural rate is europe s jobs crisis a growth crisis abstract the effect of faster technical progress is studied in our labour turnover model of the natual rate of unemployment in its closed economy version the model implies that in the limit as the steady growth rate is approached the increase in the rate of progress is neutral for the natural unemployment rate its effects are completely offset by the equal increase in the rate of interest it induces however of two small open economies having the same technology level at some date the one where technical progress has always been and always will be faster will have the lower wealth relative to its wage and a lower wage rate relative to future wage rates both effects operate to reduce the natural rate of unemployment whether this theory based hypothesis will be confirmed empirically is a question needing extensive study but a quick comparison of the g7 countries confirms that the proportionate increase of the unemployment rate in recent decades tended to be greater the more pronounced the productivity slowdown

evaluating the impact of french employment policies on individual labour market histories this paper deals with the evaluation of some public employment policies set up in france during the 1980 s to improve the labour market prospects of unskilled young workers the evaluation implemented in this paper is restricted to the impact of such public measures on durations and outcomes of subsequent spells of unemployment and employment the econometric study is conducted with non experimental longitudinal microdata recording individual labour nlarket histories a particular attention is paid to the differential effects of various types of measures according to the educational level of recipients programmes involving a higher level of on thejob training such as alternating work training programmes in private firms are principally beneficial to the less educated young workers in contrast for more educated young workers work fare programmes in the public sector decrease the intensity of transition from the subsequent unemployment spell to regular jobs for that subgroup work fare programmes may act as a signal of low employment performance

the longitudinal structure of earnings losses among work limited disabled workers this paper asks what are the dynamic effects of disability on earnings unlike most of the previous literature it uses panel data and fixed effects methods are used to assess how the earnings of disabled workers depart from expected levels over many years before and after the date of onset of their disability the paper also examines how worker characteristics affect earnings losses from disability with particular attention paid to the age at which the person suffers onset disabled men are found to experience sharp drops in earnings that predate the measured date of onset earnings recover rapidly soon after onset with much of the immediate reduction made up in the first two post onset years a modest downward trendfollows resulting in significant long term losses in expected annual earnings of about 12 percent per year being older at onset nonwhite more chronically disabled and less educated cause the losses from disability to be larger and the recovery smaller a large portion of these differences across groups appear to derive from industry affiliation after onset the paper argues the facts are all consistent with a simple human capital explanation of the disability process

sample attrition and labor supply response in experimental panel data sample attrition is a potentially serious problem for analysis of panel data particularly experimental panel data in this article a variety of estimation procedures are used to assess the importance of attrition bias in labor supply response to the seattle and denver income maintenance experiments sime dime data from social security administration earnings records and the sime dime public use file are used to test various hypotheses concerning attrition bias the study differs from previous research in that data on both attriters and nonattriters are used to estimate the experimental labor supply response although not conclusive the analysis suggests that attrition bias is probably not a serious enough problem in the sime dime data to warrant extensive correction procedures the methodology used in this study could be applied to other panel data sets

zeros and lumps in investment empirical evidence on irreversibilities and nonconvexities the objective of this paper is to investigate if and how capital adjustment departs from the smooth pattern implied by standard model based on convex adjustment costs using norwegian micro data we start by documenting the intermittent and lumpy nature of investment rates we then present two pieces of econometric evidence on these issues first we estimate a discrete hazard model to determine the probability of having an episode of high investment conditional on the length of the interval from the last high investment episode second we estimate a switching regression model that allows for the response of the investment rate to fundamentals to differ across regimes in both cases we investigate the aggregate implications of our results

are classical experiments needed for manpower policy the critical element that distinguishes classical experiments from all other modes of analysis is the random assignment of treatment to enrollees in a study this paper examines the major methodological advantages of random assignment for the purpose of estimating the effectiveness of current manpower policy it also reviews the claimed methodological and ethical objections to experiments the main valid objection to an experiment is neither methodological nor ethical it is the experiment s cost in relation to that of nonexperimental methods of analysis the authors argue that the offsetting gain from experimentation is the inherent reliability of experimental estimates of treatment effects the paper offers a simple framework for deciding whether the improved reliability of treatment effect estimates is worth the added cost of experimentation it concludes with an assessment of the actual value of experiments for evaluating current manpower policies

the effectiveness of public sponsored training revisited the importance of data and methodological choices this article revisits the effectiveness of public sponsored training programs for germany accounting for dynamic selection into heterogeneous programs we carefully assess to what extent various aspects of our empirical strategy such as conditioning flexibly on employment and benefit histories the availability of rich data handling of later program participations and further methodological choices affect our estimates our results imply pronounced negative lock in effects in the short run and positive medium run effects on employment and earnings when job seekers enroll after having been unemployed for some time we find that data and specification issues can have a large effect

measuring the effects of socio economic variables on the income distribution an application to the east german transition process this paper develops a discrete variant of the semiparametric methodology of dinardo fortin and lemieux 1996 dfl to measure the effects of socio economic variables on the income distribution although the proposed method is also based on the calculation of hypothetical income distributions by reweighting the original population it is much easier to implement the framework is applied to examine the distributional effects of rising unemployment decreasing female labor market participation and widening income structure in east germany following the reunification with west germany in 1990 the empirical results suggest that both these tendencies contributed considerably to the recent increase in income inequality in east germany

firm heterogeneity in capital labour ratios and wage inequality author s leonardi marco abstract this paper documents the increasing dispersion of capital labor ratios across firms in the us and provides some empirical evidence of a positive correlation at the two digit industry level between the dispersion of capital labor ratios across firms and residual wage inequality to explain this empirical fact the paper adopts a search model where firms differ in their optimal capital investment the exogenous decline in the relative price of equipment capital makes the distributions of capital labor ratios more dispersed in a frictional labor market this force generates wage dispersion among identical workers ols estimates of the relationship between capital dispersion and the relative price of equipment capital support the main hypothesis of the model

labor mobility of immigrants training experience language and opportunities summary statistics observations percent mean sdschooling 419 14 58 2 74age on arrival 419 38 05 9 15white collar in fsu 284 67 78 blue collar in fsu 127 30 31 did not work in fsu 8 1 91 married 363 86 63 english 419 1 76 0 94hebrew before migration 50 11 93 ulpan attendance 386 92 12 ulpan completion 332 79 24 ulpan length months 387 5 61 1 34hebrew1 rst survey 419 2 71 0 82hebrew2 second survey 316 2 98 0 83t able a2 transitions between the labor market states quarters 8 9quarters 3 4 wc bc wt bt ue obs wc 79 57 10 75 3 23 2 15 4 30 93bc 2 58 80 80 1 72 2 87 12 03 349wt 51 28 28 21 0 00 0 00 20 51 39bt 23 81 52 38 0 00 0 00 23 81 21ue 18 93 47 93 6 51 1 78 24 85 169quarters 14 15quarters 8 9 wc bc wt bt ue obs wc 90 52 6 90 0 00 0 86 1 72 116bc 4 56 90 88 0 35 0 70 3 51 285wt 41 18 41 18 0 00 0 00 17 65 17bt 25 00 66 67 0 00 0 00 8 33 12ue 23 86 44 32 0 00 0 00 31 82 88quarters 18 19quarters 14 15 wc bc wt bt ue obs wc 96 72 3 28 0 00 0 00 61bc 2 47 90 12 2 47 4 94 81wt bt 0 00 100 00 0 00 0 00 1ue 30 00 20 00 0 00 50 00 10

worker cooperation and the ratchet effect workers paid by the piece should be happy to introduce new techniques that increase output but firms always seem to reduce the piece rate when workers start earning too much money workers respond by restricting output and keeping good new ideas to themselves we show that this outcome is inevitable in a competitive environment however there are noncompetitive situations where firms can use piece rates to get cooperation from their workers these predictions are consistent with case history evidence from the cotton spinning industry in england in the nineteenth century and the lincoln electric company in the united states even today

interdependence in worker productivity this paper investigates interactions between co worker productivity levels in a rich empirical context workers have unambiguous output measures compensation that depends on individual and group output to differing degrees and potential peers beyond their immediate work group important productivity interdependencies exist which could arise from the group based component of compensation peer pressure common supervisors or information exchanges but not group based output or technological interdependence workers with the strongest individual incentives seem least sensitive to these interactions in contrast they are important to workers with no individual incentives for these workers peer pressure must be a powerful influence copyright 2003 john wiley sons ltd

magazine prices revisited this paper examines price adjustment behaviour in the magazine industry in a frequently cited study cecchetti 1986 constructs a reduced form s s model for firms cecchetti assumes that a firm s pricing rules are fixed for non overlapping three year intervals and estimates the model using a conditional logit specification from chamberlain 1980 the estimates are inconsistent however due to the duration dependent specification of the model two alternative specifications are used to obtain consistent estimation the consistent estimates continue to provide strong evidence in favour of state dependent pricing models but only weak evidence on the behaviour of price adjustment costs copyright 2006 john wiley sons ltd

co fluctuation patterns of per capita carbon dioxide emissions the role of energy markets abstract this paper applies principal component analysis to investigate the linkages or dominant co fluctuation patterns of per capita carbon dioxide emissions across countries for the time period 1950 2000 energy resource world markets are investigated as an offsetting mechanism possibly coordinating emission fluctuations between countries the results of the analysis provide evidence that world energy resource markets are acting as a coordinating mechanism for emission fluctuations in most cases the results also suggest that until recently the dominant emission co fluctuation pattern for developed countries differs from the dominant emission co fluctuation pattern for developing countries the common fluctuation pattern found in the 1984 2000 time period suggests that an offsetting mechanism does exist and will help contain global per capita emissions into the future the strong degree that emissions are linked between countries and energy markets acting as an offsetting mechanism suggests that to be successful a global agreement to address climate change must require emission reductions by all major emitters not just the developed countries

the impact of training on employment assessing a norwegian labour market programme by estimating a censored regression model it is found that unemployed adults taking part in labor market training increase their subsequent employment within a twelve month response period the employment effects vary with the duration of training and from one field of training to another in general short courses five ten weeks and long courses more than thirty weeks perform better than semilong courses using nonexperimental data and single equation estimation methods the question of unobserved heterogeneity and selection bias arises including a variant of heckman s lambda in the model reduces the estimated employment effect of training thus indicating a positive selection to training copyright 1994 by the editors of the scandinavian journal of economics

implicit contracts incentive compatibility and involuntary unemployment this paper considers the enforceability of employment contracts when employees performance cannot be verified in court so that piece rate contracts are not legally enforceable part i shows that there exists a variety of self enforcing implicit contracts modelled as perfect equilibria in a repeated game and characterizes all the wage and performance outcomes that can be implemented implementation requires a strictly positive surplus from employment the form of the contract depending on how this surplus is divided between firm and employee piece rate contracts and contracts with an informally agreed bonus can be made self enforcing but the use of severance pay and bonding does not extend the set of implementable allocations the resulting contracts resemble actual labor contracts more than do the contracts in standard principal agent models part ii analyses market equilibrium with these contracts also modelled as perfect equilibria in a repeated game and shows that many such equilibria exist unfilled vacancies and unemployed workers can co exist despite the existence of contracts that are potentially mutually beneficial for those jobs that are filled any division of the potential surplus is possible so that the market can have at the same time involuntary unemployment and vacancies that are unfilled despite filled jobs earning positive profits as a criterion for selecting equilibria a notion of renegotiation proofness is applied then either all workers are employed or all jobs filled but any division of the potential surplus is still possible the paper explores what further restrictions on beliefs give rise to a walrasian outcome in which all the potential surplus goes to the short side of the market and to an efficiency wage type outcome in which the potential surplus goes to the long side

immigration and welfare magnets this article investigates if the location choices made by immigrants when they arrive in the united states are influenced by the interstate dispersion in welfare benefits income maximizing behavior implies that foreign born welfare recipients unlike their native born counterparts may be clustered in the states that offer the highest benefits the empirical analysis indicates that immigrant welfare recipients are indeed more heavily clustered in high benefit states than the immigrants who do not receive welfare or than natives as a result the welfare participation rate of immigrants is much more sensitive to changes in welfare benefits than that of natives

are workers permanently scarred by job displacements this paper investigates whether workers suffer lasting scars following job displacements using david t ellwood s 1982 terminology scars represent persistent effects whereas blemishes are transitory adjustments which dissipate over time more precisely dislocated individuals are defined as scarred if they continue to earn less or to be unemployed more than their nondisplaced counterparts even after the conclusion of a several year adjustment period