understanding heterogeneous preferences in random utility models a latent class approach a finite mixture approach toconditional logit models is developed in whichlatent classes are used to promoteunderstanding of systematic heterogeneity the model is applied to wilderness recreationin which a branded choice experiment involvingchoice of one park from a demand system wasadministered to a sample of recreationists the basis of membership in the classes orsegments in the sample involved attitudinalmeasures of motivations for taking a trip aswell as their stated preferences overwilderness park attributes the econometricanalysis suggested that four classes of peopleexist in the sample using the model toexamine welfare measures of some hypotheticalpolicy changes identified markedly differentwelfare effects than the standard singlesegment model and provided insight into thedifferential impact of alternative policies

the generalized multinomial logit model accounting for scale and coefficient heterogeneity the mixed or heterogeneous multinomial logit mixl model has become popular in a number of fields especially marketing health economics and industrial organization in most applications of the model the vector of consumer utility weights on product attributes is assumed to have a multivariate normal mvn distribution in the population thus some consumers care more about some attributes than others and the iia property of multinomial logit mnl is avoided i e segments of consumers will tend to switch among the subset of brands that possess their most valued attributes the mixl model is also appealing because it is relatively easy to estimate recently however some researchers have argued that the mvn is a poor choice for modelling taste heterogeneity they argue that much of the heterogeneity in attribute weights is accounted for by a pure scale effect i e across consumers all attribute weights are scaled up or down in tandem this implies that choice behaviour is simply more random for some consumers than others i e holding attribute coefficients fixed the scale of their error term is greater this leads to a scale heterogeneity mnl model s mnl here we develop a generalized multinomial logit model g mnl that nests s mnl and mixl by estimating the s mnl mixl and g mnl models on 10 data sets we provide evidence on their relative performance we find that models that account for scale heterogeneity i e g mnl or s mnl are preferred to mixl by the bayes and consistent akaike information criteria in all 10 data sets accounting for scale heterogeneity enables one to account for extreme consumers who exhibit nearly lexicographic preferences as well as consumers who exhibit very random behaviour in a sense we formalize below

the link between response time and preference variance and processing heterogeneity in stated choice experiments abstract in this article we utilize the time respondents require to answer a self administered online stated preference survey while the effects of response time have been previously explored this article proposes a different approach that explicitly recognizes the highly equivocal relationship between response time and respondents choices in particular we attempt to disentangle preference variance and processing heterogeneity and explore whether response time helps to explain these three types of heterogeneity for this we divide the data ordered by response time into approximately equal sized subsets and then derive different class membership probabilities for each subset we estimate a large number of candidate models and subsequently conduct a frequentist based model averaging approach using information criteria to derive weights of evidence for each model our findings show a clear link between response time and utility coefficients error variance and processing strategies our results thus emphasize the importance of considering response time when modeling stated choice data

urban unemployment in the eu tertiary sector employment growth and urban size the paper uses regio data to study recent change in unemployment in major urban areas of europe previous results suggested a significant role for tertiarisation in employment and a systematic ass

replacement of agricultural price supports by area payments in the european union and the effects on pesticide use this article determines the contribution of recent european union agricultural policy reforms on the use of pesticides our theoretical model extends the multioutput generalization of the lichtenberg zilberman damage control technology model developed by chambers and lichtenberg our empirical analysis uses farm level data for a sample of french farms results suggest that price effects on the use of pesticides are always more elastic than area payment effects this indicates that policy reforms consisting of a reduction in price supports in favor of area payments may reduce application of crop protection inputs such policy changes which represent a certain degree of decoupling took place under the 1992 common agricultural policy reforms

a repeated nested logit model of atlantic salmon fishing participation and site choice for atlantic salmon fishing are modeled in the context of a repeated three level nested logit model consumer s surplus measures are derived for different levels of species availability in the penobscot river the most important salmon river in new england for comparison six other travel cost models are estimated these include restrictive cases of the nested logit model a partial demand model and two single site demand models comparisons across these models indicate the importance of modeling the participation decision including income effects and of adopting a nested logit structure rather than a single level logit structure

inferred and stated attribute non attendance in food choice experiments we review the current literature on attribute non attendance in stated choice and use data from beef and chicken choice experiments using both inference and the respondents own statements inference is based on panel data analysis by mixed logit models of choice with both discrete and continuous mixtures of coefficients and is conditional on the observed pattern of choice information from respondent statements on non attendance is directly embedded in the specification of the indirect utility function results show no clear winner between the inferential approaches but the inference based on constrained latent class panel models better matches the observed data

normal inputs and joint production with allocatable fixed factors when jointness is caused by allocatable fixed factors in the normal case the marginal cost of any output increases as any other output increases the supply of any output decreases as any other output price increases and an input price increase may cause the supply of some outputs to increase

incorporating discontinuous preferences into the analysis of discrete choice experiments data from a discrete choice experiment on improvements of rural landscape attributes are used to investigate the implications of discontinuous preferences on willingness to pay estimates using a multinomial error component logit model we explore differences in scale and unexplained variance between respondents with discontinuous and continuous preferences and condition taste intensities on whether or not each attribute was considered by the respondent during the evaluation of alternatives results suggest that significant improvements in model performance can be achieved when discontinuous preferences are accommodated in the econometric specification and that the magnitude and robustness of the willingness to pay estimates are sensitive to discontinuous preferences

spatial heterogeneity contract design and the efficiency of carbon sequestration policies for agriculture abstract in this paper we develop methods to investigate the efficiency of alternative contracts for carbon c sequestration in cropland soils taking into account the spatial heterogeneity of agricultural production systems and the costs of implementing more efficient contracts we describe contracts being proposed for implementation in the united states and other countries that would pay farmers for adoption of specified practices per hectare contracts we also describe more efficient contracts that would pay farmers per tonne of soil c sequestered and we show how to estimate the costs of implementing these more efficient contracts in a case study of a major agricultural region in the united states we confirm that the relative inefficiency of per hectare contracts varies spatially and increases with the degree of spatial heterogeneity the results also show that per hectare contracts are as much as five times more costly than per tonne contracts a degree of inefficiency similar to that found in assessments of command and control industrial emissions regulations measurement costs to implement the per tonne contracts are found to be positively related to spatial heterogeneity but are estimated to be at least an order of magnitude smaller than the efficiency losses of the per hectare contract for reasonable error levels this finding implies that contracting parties could afford to bear a significant cost to implement per tonne contracts and achieve a lower total cost than would be possible with the less efficient per hectare contracts

a finite mixture logit model of recreational angling with serially correlated random utility this article examines two issues concerning the trip taking behavior of recreational anglers over the course of a season the first is whether the random component of trip utility is serially correlated across trip occasions the second is the heterogeneity of preferences among anglers recent research has examined heterogeneity among recreational trip takers using random parameters models in this article the population of anglers is instead cast as a collection of several subpopulations distinguished by angler preferences and the method of finite mixtures is used to identify these subpopulations copyright 2002 oxford university press

profit maximizing land use revisited the testable implications of non joint crop production under land constraint this article derives new implications for the land allocation and production decisions of profit maximizing farm firms where production of different crops is non joint but subject to a constraint on the total land area these implications are observable and thus subject to empirical scrutiny an estimable model of crop production land allocation and input use decisions is derived that permits joint production and enables the implications of non joint but land constrained production to be tested this may improve econometric estimates of cross price elasticities of supply by linking models of land use and production decisions and allowing non jointness to be imposed where appropriate copyright 2013 oxford university press

modeling supply response in a multiproduct framework the paper models multiproduct supply response in agriculture and tests key assumptions traditionally maintained in supply response studies the technology is approximated by a restricted profit function the properties of the restricted profit function are imposed during estimation the hypothesis that maintains the existence of output price and quantity indexes that satisfy the adding up property is rejected the existence of individual production functions for each output is also rejected unless joint production is permitted the estimates of responsiveness of a particular commodity to changes in own price or prices of competing outputs are likely to be considerably understated

structural agricultural land use modeling for spatial agro environmental policy analysis this paper develops a spatially disaggregated structural econometric model of agricultural land use and production based on the joint multi output technology representation introduced by chambers and just 1989 starting from a flexible specification of the farm profit function we derive land use allocation input application crop yield and livestock intensity equations in a joint and theoretically consistent framework to account for the presence of censored observations in micro level data the model is estimated as a system of two limit tobit equations via quasi maximum likelihood we present an empirical application using fine scale spatial data covering the entirety of england and wales and including the main economic policy and environmental drivers of land use change in the past forty years a simulation of the effects of diffuse pollution reduction measures illustrates how our approach can be applied for agro environmental policy appraisal

information customization and food choice in this article we employ a hypothetical discrete choice experiment dce to examine how much consumers are willing to pay to use technology to customize their food shopping we conjecture that customized information provision can aid in the composition of a healthier shop our results reveal that consumers are prepared to pay relatively more for individual specific information as opposed to generic nutritional information that is typically provided on food labels in arriving at these results we have examined various model specifications including those that make use of ex post de briefing questions on attribute non attendance and attribute ranking information and those that consider the time taken to complete the survey our main results are robust to the various model specifications we examine

addressing preference heterogeneity multiple scales and attribute attendance with a correlated finite mixing model of tap water choice unobserved heterogeneity of error scale in choice models is a recent extension of the better investigated issue of heterogeneity of taste intensity it is achieved by fitting choice panel data with specifications that simultaneously handle inter personal variation in scale and taste the aim is to separate differences in preference intensities across respondents from differences in the degree of consistency in choice behaviour or preference discrimination while accounting for correlation between the two another recent substantive issue in choice data analysis is attribute non attendance we develop a finite mixing model to address simultaneously the three issues above we empirically prove the concept on stated preference data related to tap water attributes in a study for industry regulation

allocatable fixed inputs and jointness in agricultural production implications for economic modeling allocatable fixed inputs such as land are a potentially important source of jointness in agriculture as with other causes of jointness they necessitate multiple product systems for modeling product supply and input demand in other important ways however their analytical implications are very different from other causes of jointness model specification differs demand functions for the quantities of each input used in the production of individual commodities can be derived if a primal approach is used but such allocation equations cannot in general be identified from a dual specification available allocation data are not even useful in such dual estimations

a discrete choice model with endogenous attribute attendance abstract this paper develops a discrete choice model in which the decision to consider an attribute in the choice process is modelled endogenously in an application to patients choice of general practitioner it is found that the proposed model outperforms the standard logit model in terms of goodness of fit and produces substantially different estimates of willingness to pay

brand effects on choice and choice set formation under uncertainty this paper examines the effects of brand credibility a central concept in information economics based approaches to brand effects and brand equity on consumer choice and choice set formation we investigate the mechanisms through which credibility effects materialize namely through perceived quality perceived risk and information costs saved the credibility of a brand as a signal is defined as the believability of the product position information contained in a brand which depends on consumer perceptions of the willingness and ability of firms to deliver what they have promised the choice set is defined as the collection of brands that have a nonzero probability of being chosen among those actually available for choice in a given context furthermore we study the impact of brand credibility on the variance of the stochastic component of utility not only do choice model parameters capture the impact of systematic utility differences on choice probabilities but also the magnitude of this systematic impact is moderated by the relative importance of the stochastic utility component in preference we term this moderation phenomenon preference discrimination which we conceptualize as the decision makers capacity to effectively discriminate between products utilities in choice situations we estimate a discrete choice model of brand choice set formation and preference discrimination on experimental data in two categories juice and personal computers and find strong evidence for brand credibility effects and differential mechanisms through which brand credibility s impact materializes on brand choice conditional on choice set choice set formation and preference discrimination

productivity and city size a critique of the evidence a critique of two leading articles in the productivity and city size literature results in revised estimates of the productivity advantages of large cities in particular extant estimates of the elasticity of productivity with city size are revised downward by over 100 percent for the manufacturing sector and about 25 percent for the entire urban economy after revision productivity advantages of larger cities are found to be much larger for the nonmanufacturing sector than for the manufacturing sector hence revitalization policies for large cities should be focused on nonmanufacturing sectors

would you choose your preferred option comparing choice and recoded ranking experiments previous research has shown that results from a choice experiment are statistically different from those obtained from a ranking experiment that is recoded and treated as a choice experiment using only the first rank by avoiding some of the shortcomings of previous comparisons we obtain the opposite results using data from the valuation of a cork oak reforestation program in the south of spain structural models and welfare estimations are statistically indistinguishable irrespective of the use of parametric or bootstrapping tests further we employ follow up questions and subsample analysis to test whether divergences appear when potential effects are isolated copyright 2008 oxford university press

valuing indigenous cattle breeds in kenya an empirical comparison of stated and revealed preference value estimates abstract in this study we compare revealed and stated preference approaches to value traits of cattle in kenya the premise is that much can be learnt about non market values of indigenous animal genetic resources angr from the use of multi attribute stated preference methods if these compare well with revealed preference results the objective is to investigate the performance of choice experiments ces in maasai cattle trading by conducting an external test of preference consistency we compare value estimates for cattle attributes from ces data with those from hedonic analysis of actual transactions by the same population of traders in the same markets and over the same period if ces perform well they can be used to investigate values of those genetically determined livestock traits currently not prominent in pastoralists populations but desirable candidates for breeding or conservation programmes e g disease resistance the results indicate that ce estimates pass the external test and appear to be adequately precise in estimating values for cattle traits that are relevant in market transactions for maasai traders accounting for taste and variance heterogeneity does not change this conclusion ces may therefore be a promising tool for valuing phenotypic traits expressed by indigenous angr

designing conjoint choice experiments using managers prior beliefs abstract the authors provide more efficient designs for conjoint choice experiments based on prior information elicited from managers about the parameters and their associated uncertainty the authors use a bayesian design procedure that assumes a prior distribution of likely parameter values and optimizes the design over that distribution the authors propose a way to elicit prior information from managers and show in monte carlo studies that the procedure provides more efficient designs than the current procedures the authors provide an empirical application in which they elicit prior information on the parameter values and the associated uncertainty from managers here the bayesian design provides 30 50 lower standard errors of the estimates and an expected predictive validity that is approximately 20 higher

unemployment questions and some answers in more or less every country in the oecd unemployment was lower in the decades following the second world war than in any other period of comparable length either before or since for example in britain unemployment has exceeded 5 in every peacetime decade from 1850 onwards except for the 1950s and 1960s alternatively as we can see in table 1 p 779 average unemployment in the 1980s and 90s is higher generally much higher than in the 1960s in every country considered why this is so is one of the questions which underlies this paper a second question which is also illustrated in the unemployment numbers presented in table 1 p 779 concerns the causes of the enormous variation in unemployment rates across the oecd countries as we shall see these are difficult questions the first in particular is one for which we do not have a complete answer by this i do not mean that we do not have theories which are broadly consistent with these numbers in fact we have theories consistent with more or less any numbers what we lack is a satisfactory empirical explanation of the time series pattern of oecd unemployment in what follows we remain focused on these two questions first considering the theoretical background and then looking at some possible answers we finish with some speculative conjectures on the first question

regional unemployment disparities and their dynamics martin r 1997 regional unemployment disparities and their dynamics reg studies 31 237 252 unemployment in the united kingdom has doubled every decade since the 1960s regional unemployment trends during this period are shown to have been characterized by a high degree of synchronicity and regional unemployment disparities by a remarkable persistence this persistence or stability of the regional unemployment structure or what can be termed co integration of the regional labour market system is argued to be an equilibrium phenomenon although the unusual recession of the early 1990s appears to have disturbed this stable pattern of regional disparities whether this change represents a temporary shock or marks a shift to a new equilibrium geography of unemployment is as yet unclear martin r 1997 les ecarts du chomage regional et leur dynamique reg studies 31 237 252 au royaume uni le chomage a doubletoutes les decennies depuis les annees 60 pendant cette periode ce qui caracterise les

modeling disinterest and dislike a bounded bayesian mixed logit model of the uk market for gm food mixed logit models represent a powerful discrete choice analytical model but require assumptions about the functional form of the parameter distributions the use of unbounded distributions such as the normal distribution may be regarded as unsuitable where theory indicates that all are negatively affected by increases in an attribute such as price bounded distributions such as the triangular and log normal are unable to model the case where a section of the population is indifferent towards an attribute while the remainder are negatively disposed toward it train and sonnier s bounded mixed logit model accommodates these features and is employed in this paper a censored normal and johnson s s b distribution are used to model preferences in the uk for food attributes including price and gm technology bi modal distributions are identified regarding gm food some are unlikely to ever consume it some are close to indifference and willing to consume at relatively small discounts while the remainder are fairly unresponsive to further price reductions

dealing with ignored attributes in choice experiments on valuation of sweden s environmental quality objectives using a choice experiment this paper investigates how swedish citizens value three environmental quality objectives in addition a follow up question is used to investigate whether respondents ignored any attributes when responding the resulting information is used in model estimation by restricting the individual parameters for the ignored attributes to zero when taking the shares of respondents who took both the environmental and the cost attributes 52 69 of the respondents into account then the wtp for each attribute changes if the respondents who ignored the attributes have a zero wtp at the same time we find evidence that not all respondents who claimed to have ignored an attribute really did however the most commonly ignored non monetary attributes always have the lowest rankings in terms of wtp across all three environmental objectives thus our results show that instead of ignoring attributes completely respondents seem to put less weight on the attributes they claimed to have ignored

dynamic learning and context dependence in sequential attribute based stated preference valuation questions a hybrid stated preference model is presented that combines the referendum contingent valuation response format with an experimentally designed set of attributes a sequence of valuation questions is asked to a random sample in a mailout mail back format econometric analysis shows greater discrimination between alternatives in the final choice in the sequence and the vector of preference parameters shifts lead and lag choice sets have a structural influence on current choices and unobserved factors induce positive correlation across the responses these results indicate that people learn about their preferences for attributebased environmental goods by comparing attribute levels across choice sets

skew and attribute non attendance within the bayesian mixed logit model abstract we investigate non attendance to choice set attributes and the accommodation of preference heterogeneity within the mixed logit model we propose a generalisation of the mixed logit enabling the degree of skew of marginal utility distributions to be estimated the implementation is bayesian with the marginal likelihood used as an arbiter of model performance we find strong evidence of skew in the distributions of marginal utilities for most attributes models incorporating skew are preferred in all cases the irrelevance of an attribute to significant numbers of respondents is a possible cause of such skew we test alternative empirical accommodations of self reported attribute non attendance ana and continue to find strong evidence of skew in the distributions of marginal utilities even having accounted for ana we find that contrary to some recent findings respondents who report having ignored an attribute typically do indeed have a zero marginal utility for that attribute

designing choice sets for stated preference methods the effects of complexity on choice consistency abstract we vary the complexity of choice sets used in stated preference methods to evaluate the impact on choice consistency we define five measures of complexity that capture either the amount of information or the correlational structure of information in a choice set using these measures as randomly assigned treatments in a large experiment we analyze the consistency of respondents choices using a heteroskedastic multinomial logit model we find that i all of our measures of choice set complexity affect choice consistency ii changes in the correlational structure of information have the largest impact on choice consistency and iii choice complexity significantly distorts welfare estimates our results confirm economists initial worry that moving from contingent valuation to conjoint methods will increase complexity induced choice inconsistency however our analysis also shows that these negative impacts may be mitigated if precautions are taken at the design and estimation stages of stated preference methods

models for heterogeneous variable selection abstract preference heterogeneity is a major research stream in marketing aimed at quantifying and understanding the diversity of demand for product attributes and attribute levels in experimental settings in which consumers are presented with simple descriptions of product offerings continuous distributions of heterogeneity such as the multivariate normal provide a useful representation of preference however in more complex cases in which respondents have value for only a few of the benefits associated with an offering or cognitive constraints that result in selective attention to a subset of the information available continuous distributions of heterogeneity do not reflect the possibility that a subset of the variables has nonzero effect sizes for different respondents identifying which attributes are used in a brand choice decision is closely related to the statistical procedure of variable selection this article extends variable selection methods to accommodate heterogeneity across consumers

recreation demand models with taste differences over people we estimate random parameter logit models of anglers choice of fishing site the models generalize logit by allowing coefficients to vary randomly over anglers rather than being fixed the models do not exhibit the restrictive independence from irrelevant alternatives property of logit and can represent any substitution pattern estimation explicitly accounts for the fact that the variation in coefficients over anglers induces correlation in unobserved utility over trips by the same angler willingness to pay for improved fish stock and the value to anglers of specific sites are calculated from the models and compared with the estimates obtained from a standard logit model

estimation of area elasticities from a standard profit function this article demonstrates that both crop area and output elasticities can be calculated from a profit function a chambers just profit function which includes land allocations as quasi fixed factors is used to derive shadow price equations for each crop area allocation jointly solving these shadow price equations for crop area makes it possible to calculate individual crop area elasticities a profit function is specified to represent agricultural producers in the state of iowa shadow price equations are jointly estimated with output supply and input demand equations from these estimated equations we derive the individual crop area response and output response to a change in prices

monitoring choice task attribute attendance in nonmarket valuation of multiple park management services does it matter land management in alpine parks provides multifunctional services to separate groups of users choice experiments can be used to derive estimates of value for different management attri butes however little research has been conducted on how frequently respondents ignore attributes used to describe policy management scenarios we fill this gap using an approach that identifies and compares both serial and choice task attribute nonattendance addressing five different visitor types our results indicate that accounting for choice task nonatten dance significantly improves model fit and yield estimates of marginal willingness to pay with a more plausible pattern of signs and greater efficiency jel q24 q51 i introduction the effects of park management policies on outdoor recreation are increasingly coming under public scrutiny alpine park land is among the most valuable land in terms of outdoor recreation park manage ment decisions are often controversial be cause of differences between objectives pursued by conservationists and the tourist industry parkland management agencies find it increasingly difficult to fund all the services needed to facilitate the ever broad ening variety of outdoor recreation activi ties this is further exacerbated by the increasing expectations for high quality recreational experiences by a population of recreationists with a heightened sensitivity to environmental and conservation issues such a situation widens the scope for multiattribute nonmarket valuation meth ods especially for those methods capable of capturing and modeling the preferences of heterogeneous visitors who seek to pursue a variety of activities in the land under study our research reports the results of a study designed to address attribute nonattendance henceforth abbreviated as an a which despite being quite a common decision heuristic has only recently begun to be explored by analysts with this decision heuristic respondents ignore some of the described attributes in their evaluation of alternatives within a given choice task they hence act as if a zero weight were assigned to the ignored attributes in the utility of the respective alternatives we study this issue by using a well known statistical model of discrete choice the multinomial logit mnl model this random utility model is often used for the purpose of multi attribute nonmarket valuation but the effects of accounting for an a are still rela tively unexplored information on an a is commonly collected by questioning each respondent at the end of the sequence of choice tasks respondents are asked to list those attributes that they feel they have