efficient methods of measuring welfare change and compensated income in terms of ordinary demand functions a utility maximizing consumer with a completely known system of ordinary demand functions q h p c is considered let p qo and p q be two arbitrary equilibrium situations the problem is to evaluate in which of the situations the utility is higher without knowing the utility function revealed preference theory tells that the ordinary demand functions which are in principle observable contain enough information to solve the problem remaining difficulties are therefore mainly computational we present how the compensated income c i c p qo and the compensated demand h p cl1 are calculated with arbitrary accuracy using only the ordinary demand system our two efficient algorithms also have interesting interpretations in terms of index numbers and consumer surplus measures

household electricity demand revisited respond to price changes this paper develops a model for evaluating the effects of alternative tariff designs on electricity use the model concurrently addresses several interrelated difficulties posed by nonlinear pricing heterogeneity in consumer price sensitivity and consumption aggregation over appliances and time we estimate the model using extensive data for a representative sample of 1300 california households the results imply a strikingly skewed distribution of household electricity price elasticities in the population with a small fraction of households accounting for most aggregate demand response we then estimate the aggregate and distributional consequences of recent tariff structure changes recent efforts to restructure electricity markets have renewed interest in electricity demand and pricing this interest reflects a broad desire to improve the efficiency of electricity markets and policy makers concerns over the impact of price changes on consumers how new pricing mechanisms would affect households consumption and expenditures is a matter of considerable uncertainty however this uncertainty has provoked controversy and debate in the regulatory policy arena hampering market reforms using econometric methods to assess the effects of electricity price changes presents several challenges these include the nonlinear structure of tariff schedules aggregation of metered consumption behaviour over time and appliances and the interdependence of energy use with longer term household decisions over appliance ownership and dwelling characteristics the first two issues introduce complex simultaneity problems between marginal prices and consumption the third issue imposes high data requirements information on household specific appliance holdings and residence features and creates heterogeneity in consumption responses related to the characteristics of these durable goods when the researcher s objective is to develop a model for simulating the effects of prospective tariff changes ignoring these issues will provide an incomplete assessment of demand responses and potentially misleading predictions of a new tariff s consumption and revenue consequences in this paper we estimate a model of household electricity demand that can be used

rising inequality as a cause of the present crisis the article argues that the economic imbalances that caused the present crisis should be thought of as the outcome of the interaction of the effects of financial deregulation with the macroeconomic effects of rising inequality in this sense rising inequality should be regarded as a root cause of the present crisis i identify four channels by which it has contributed to the crisis first rising inequality creates a downwards pressure on aggregate demand since poorer income groups have high marginal propensities to consume second international financial deregulation has allowed countries to run larger current account deficits and for longer time periods thus in reaction to potentially stagnant demand two growth models have emerged a debt led model and an export led model third in the debt led growth models higher inequality has led to higher household debt as working class families have tried to keep up with social consumption norms despite stagnating or falling real wages fourth rising inequality has increased the propensity to speculate as richer households tend to hold riskier financial assets than other groups the rise of hedge funds and of subprime derivatives in particular has been linked to rise of the super rich

financialisation income distribution and aggregate demand in the usa this paper investigates the effects of financialisation and functional income distribution on aggregate demand in the usa by estimating the effects of the increase in rentier income dividends and interest payments and housing and financial wealth on consumption and investment the redistribution of income in favour of profits suppresses consumption whereas the increase in the rentier income and wealth has positive effects a higher rentier income decreases investment without the wealth effects the overall effect of the changes in distribution on aggregate demand would have been negative thus a pro capital income distribution leads to a slightly negative effect on growth i e the usa economy is moderately wage led

choice under uncertainty a model of applications for the social security disability insurance program abstract not all people with health problems are disabled some individuals with severe physical or mental impairments such as blindness or limb amputation continue to hold jobs and generally function satisfactorily they constitute however a group of potentially disabled individuals who might apply and qualify for disability insurance or other disability related benifits if they were to lose their jobs or to decide that employment offered an inadequate financial or non pecuniary reward thus disability or a health related inability to work is more than a medical problem but involves motivational and attitudinal factors we specify a model of the application process which we model as choice under uncertainty about approval of an application for disability insurance we specify the possible outcomes to the choice process of an individual in which the probability of acceptance for disability insurance is a key consideration we then estimate a joint model of labor supply and application to the disability insurance program based on the 1972 survey we then compare our results to the observed time series applications process since 1976 lastly we estimate the sensitivity of the application process to the probability of acceptance and the level of benifits

managerial overconfidence in initial public offering decisions and its impact on macrodynamics and financial stability analysis using an agent based model abstract in this study we build a macroeconomic agent based model that is calibrated for the specific case of poland to explore whether the overconfidence of top corporate managers in the context of their initial public offering ipo decisions is detrimental for the firms being managed in this way the financial market dynamics and the selected macroeconomic indicators we found a contradiction between the micro and macro impacts of overconfidence overconfident firms showed better performance in terms of output than other firms but were also more exposed to stock market volatility thereby making them more likely to default the higher default rates of overoptimistic firms negatively impacted the banking sector and increased financial instability finally we ran policy shocks and showed that increased financial instability can be offset by strengthening the regulation of the banking sector

ex ante consumer welfare evaluation in cost benefit analysis abstract public projects and policies are normally evaluated ex ante i e while consumers may still be uncertain about future prices income levels interest rates and preferences this paper extends the theory of ex ante consumer welfare evaluation by developing a 2 period model with multiple sources of uncertainty it provides insights into the influence of temporal uncertainty on the empirical measurement of ex ante willingness to pay

a two item newsboy problem with substitutability previous research on the newsboy problem is based on the assumption that in case of a shortage unsatisfied demand is lost such an assumption is inappropriate for items that have a close substitute in this paper we formulate a two item newsboy problem with substitutability tinps upper and lower bounds on the optimal order quantities of the two items are derived since analytical solutions to the problem are difficult to obtain a monte carlo simulation is used to identify the optimal solution to the tinps order quantities identified by the simulation provide higher expected profit than would have been obtainable without considering substitutability

impact of loss aversion on the newsvendor game with product substitution abstract this paper studies a newsvendor game in which two substitutable products are sold by two different retailers newsvendors with loss averse preferences each loss averse retailer facing stochastic customer demand and deterministic substitution rate will make an order quantity decision to maximize his expected utility since product substitution causes two retailers to make decisions in a competitive environment game theory is used to find the retailers optimal order quantities it is shown that under certain conditions there exists a unique nash equilibrium in the newsvendor game under a symmetry assumption each retailer s equilibrium order quantity is decreasing in the loss aversion coefficient and increasing in the substitution rate further if the effect of loss aversion on the order quantity is strong enough to dominate the effect of competition the total inventory level of a decentralized supply chain will be lower than that of a centralized supply chain numerical experiments are conducted to illustrate our results

economic welfare evaluations for producers under uncertainty the validity of producer and consumer surplus measures of firm welfare under risk is examined under constant absolute risk aversion and output price uncertainty only these measures are an exact measure of firm welfare as defined by compensating variation equivalent variation or the change in the certainty equivalent under decreasing absolute risk aversion qualitative comparisons of various measures are discussed for example producer s surplus as measured by the area above the uncompensated risk averse supply curve overstates the compensating variation of a change in expected price of output procedures for calculating firm welfare under production uncertainty and a variety of economic environments are proposed generally these procedures are applicable only when absolute risk aversion is constant

labor supply deadweight loss and tax reform act of 1986 a nonparametric evaluation using panel data abstract tax reform act of 1986 tra 1986 has provided an invaluable source of variation in tax rates to study the effects of tax reforms on labor supply in the us most existing studies exploiting variation generated by tra 1986 have used cross sectional variation in tax rates or assumed a linear labor supply function or have not couched their analysis in a nonlinear budget set framework this paper uses the drastic variation in the budget set induced by tra 1986 as a source of identification and combines two novel approaches to estimate behavioral effects of tax reforms i first use nonparametric estimation methods with nonlinear budget sets blomquist soren newey w 2002 nonparametric estimation with nonlinear budget sets econometrica 70 6 2455 2480 to estimate a labor supply function using waves of psid just before and after tra 1986 nonparametric method developed in hausman and newey hausman j whitney newey 1995 nonparametric measurement of exact consumer s surplus and deadweight loss econometrica 63 1145 76 is then applied to estimate the deadweight loss from tra 1986 the nonparametric estimate of the compensated wage elasticity is 0 22 i find that tra 1986 had a small but positive effect on labor supply of men of about 2 at the sample mean tra 1986 was associated with robust reduction in deadweight loss from the pre tra 1986 level and this reduction is positively correlated with income and wages

has consumption inequality mirrored income inequality we revisit to what extent the increase in income inequality since 1980 was mirrored by consumption inequality we do so by constructing an alternative measure of consumption expenditure using a demand system to correct for systematic measurement error in the consumer expenditure survey our estimation exploits the relative expenditure of high and low income households on luxuries versus necessities this double differencing corrects for measurement error that can vary over time by good and income we find consumption inequality tracked income inequality much more closely than estimated by direct responses on expenditures jel d31 d63 e21

house prices home equity based borrowing and the u s household leverage crisis us household leverage sharply increased in the years preceding the 2007 eco nomic recession the top panel of figure 1 shows the steady rise in household debt since 1975 which accelerated beginning in 2002 in just five years the household sector doubled its debt balance in comparison the contemporaneous increase in corporate debt was modest the middle panel shows that the increase in household debt from 2002 to 2007 translated into a striking rise in household leverage as mea sured by the debt to income ratio during the same time period corporate leverage declined the dramatic absolute and relative rise in us household leverage from 2002 to 2007 is unprecedented compared to the last 25 years one reason for the rapid expansion in household leverage during this period is that mortgage credit became more easily available to new home buyers mian and sufi 2009 strong house price appreciation from 2002 to 2006 however which may have been fueled by the availability of mortgage credit to a riskier set of new home buyers could also have had an important feedback effect on household lever age through existing homeowners given that 65 percent of us households already owned their primary residence before the acceleration in house prices the feedback from house prices to borrowing may be an important source of the rapid rise in household leverage that preceded the economic downturn our central goals in this study are to estimate how homeowner borrowing responded to the increase in house prices and to identify which homeowners responded most aggressively we examine this home equity based borrowing channel using a dataset consisting of anonymous individual credit files of a national consumer credit bureau agency we follow a random sample of over 74 000 us homeowners who owned their homes as of 1997 at an annual frequency from the end of 1997 until the end of 2008 the bottom panel of figure 1 plots the growth in debt of 1997 homeowners over time and shows that existing homeowners borrow significantly more debt as their house prices appreciate from 2002 to 2006 while the aggregate trend is suggestive

responsible production policies with substitution and carbon emissions trading abstract this paper considers a production model involving a manufacturer that uses two different technologies the green technology and the standard technology the green product produced by the green technology can be used as a substitute for the traditional product produced by the standard technology but not vice versa three models are considered the first model concerns with product substitution only and serves as a benchmark model for the next two models the carbon emission allowance model and the carbon emission trading model the second model extends the product substitution model by imposing an upper limit on the total carbon emission allowance for each firm the third model extends the second model to cater for carbon emission trading for the carbon emission allowance model analytical result shows that the optimal production quantity of any product depends on both its total carbon emission allowance quota and its unit carbon emission profit and the effect of substitution improves the service level the expected profit of the manufacturer and the green of product mix for the carbon emission trading model analytical result shows that whenever the production quantity of any product is optimal the marginal profit of production i e the additional profit obtained by producing an extra item should be equal to the unit price of carbon emission trading within the market moreover the optimal policy of either model reduces the total amount of carbon emission thus producing less pollution to the environment lastly the optimal profits obtained by using the carbon emission trading model are larger than the corresponding optimal profits obtained by using the carbon emission allowance model

nonparametric estimation of the impact of taxes on female labor supply this paper proposes a simple extension of nonparametric estimation methods for nonlinear budget set models derived in blomquist and newey 2002 to censored dependent variables the nonparametric method is applied to estimate female labor supply elasticities using data on married women from the 1985 and 1989 waves of the panel study of income dynamics exploiting the substantial variation in budget sets caused by the tax reform act of 1986 as a source of identification the estimated wage elasticities from this new method are 0 56 overall and 0 27 on the intensive margin the income elasticity estimates are close to 0 67 overall and 0 13 on the intensive margin compared with the linear labor supply model the estimated elasticities are usually larger for the nonparametric specifications that account for nonlinear budget sets copyright 2010 john wiley sons ltd

estimating the precision of welfare measures abstract three methods for constructing standard deviation and or confidence intervals for welfare estimates have been employed in the recreation demand literature a taylor s series approximation the bootstrap and a method proposed by krinsky and robb this paper presents the results of two sets of simulation experiments designed to examine the accuracy of these methods the first simulation examines the methods accuracy in estimating the standard deviation of welfare estimates the second simulation examines the accuracy of the methods in constructing confidence intervals

errors in the numerical assessment of the benefits of price stabilization this paper presents a simple computational procedure for determining a consumer s willingness to pay to have a price stabilization policy implemented numerical simulations are then provided which demonstrate that the commonly used expected surplus measures whether hicksian or marshallian can in fact seriously misstate the true benefits of price stabilization these simulations also illustrate the extent to which the results may be dependent upon the assumptions made implicitly or explicitly regarding the consumer s attitudes toward risk thereby underscoring the need to conduct sensitivity analyses to determine the robustness of cost benefit assessments with respect to these assumptions

on measuring the benefits of lower transport costs despite large amounts invested in rural roads in developing countries little is known about their benefits this paper derives an expression for the willingness to pay for a reduction in transport costs from the canonical agricultural household model and uses it to estimate the benefits of a hypothetical road project estimation is based on novel cross sectional data collected in a small region of madagascar with enormous yet plausibly exogenous variation in transport cost a road that essentially eliminated transport costs in the study area would boost the incomes of the remotest households those facing transport costs of about usd 75 ton by nearly half mostly by raising non farm earnings this benefit estimate is contrasted to one based on a hedonic approach

the welfare effects of environmental taxation on a green market where consumers emit a pollutant this paper examines the welfare impact of emission taxes and subsidies in a green market where consumers emit a pollutant through their usage of products produced by duopolists for this purpose we employ a discrete continuous model including both consumer choice and usage of an environmentally differentiated product in a utility consistent framework the findings indicate that an emission tax is always welfare dominant over a subsidy on consumer purchases of the clean product because of its contribution to a reduction in environmental damage it does this by both inducing firms to improve the environmental qualities of their products and by constraining consumer usage of these products

the welfare effects of temporary tax cuts and subsidies theory estimation and applications this article presents a tractable and intuitive theory on the welfare effects of temporary tax cuts and subsidies fiscal policies that i generically term holidays the kaldor hicks efficiency effects are theoretically ambiguous with competing pro and anti efficiency effects on newly incentivized versus time shifted purchases to rectify this ambiguity i derive expressions for the welfare effects that are consistent with constant elasticity assumptions and depend only upon readily and reliably observed information to demonstrate the framework s broad applicability i analyze two different policies the 2009 cash for clunkers program and states sales tax holidays i estimate that both policies generated substantial deadweight loss jel h21 h30 d91

cellular telephone new products and the cpi since their introduction in 1983 cellular telephones adoption has grown at 25 35 per year at year end 1997 about 55 million cellular telephones were in use in the united states the bureau of labor statistics bls did not know that cellular telephones existed at least in terms of calculating the consumer price index cpi until 1998 when they were finally included in the cpi omitting cellular telephones from the cpi created a significant bias i estimate a bias in the bls estimate of the telecommunications services index of between 8 1 9 per year because of the omission of the cellular telephone rather than telecommunications service prices increasing at about 1 1 per year the correct calculation has them decreasing at about 8 per year omission of new goods from the cpi for significant periods of time leads to important bias in the calculation of the cpi

inequality leverage and crises the paper studies how high leverage and crises can arise as a result of changes in the income distribution empirically the periods 1920 1929 and 1983 2007 both exhibited a large increase in the income share of the rich a large increase in leverage for the remainder and an eventual financial and real crisis the paper presents a theoretical model where these features arise endogenously as a result of a shift in bargaining powers over incomes a financial crisis can reduce leverage if it is very large and not accompanied by a real contraction but restoration of the lower income group s bargaining power is more effective

regional welfare loss meaures of the 1973 oil embargo a numerical methods approach 1987 regional welfare loss meaures of the 1973 oil embargo a numerical methods approach applied economics vol 19 no 10 pp 1317 1327

can weak substitution be rehabilitated this paper develops a graphical analysis and an analytical model that demonstrate how weak substitution can be used for non market valuation weak complementarity and weak substitution represent preference restrictions that allow us to develop equivalent price changes to describe quantity or quality changes in non market goods the price changes are hicksian equivalents in that they yield the same utility changes as would the quantity or quality changes after discussion of several potential applications of weak substitution the paper develops the parallel between the restriction and recent strategies from modeling differentiated goods

measuring the welfare gain from personal computers i introduction what is the welfare gain to consumers from the development of and improvements in personal computers pcs this is the question addressed here the answer offered is that welfare increased by somewhere between 2 and 3 measured in terms of total personal consumption expenditure due to the introduction of the pc and its subsequent price decline this finding is obtained by employing a model of consumer behavior based upon more or less standard preferences which is fit to aggregate national income and product account data using a direct and simple calibration estimation strategy to estimate the welfare gain from the introduction of a new product one must know what utility is in the absence of the good a conventional isoelastic utility function has two problems first at zero consumption the utility function returns a value of minus infinity whenever the elasticity of substitution is less than one in this case the welfare gain from the introduction of the new good is infinitely large second marginal utility at zero consumption is infinite so long as the elasticity of substitution is finite therefore consumers will always purchase some of the good in question no matter how high the price is albeit perhaps in infinitesimal quantities to avoid these problems a form for preferences will be adopted that gives a finite level for marginal utility and hence one for total utility at zero consumption with this utility function high prices may result in the consumer optimally choosing to buy none of the new good in addition the consumer s surplus associated with the introduction of a new good is generally finite this paper contributes to the growing literature on measuring the welfare gains from new goods a classic example is the work by hausman 1999 who studies the introduction of cellular telephones he finds that their tardy inclusion in the consumer price index cpi some 15 years after their debut results in a bias of up to 2 per year in the telecommunications services price index to obtain this estimate hausman 1999 effectively integrates back the estimated demand curve for cellular telephones to recover the indirect utility function for consumers this function can be inverted to obtain the expenditure function from which welfare measures can be calculated the procedure was developed earlier in work by hausman 1981 analytical solutions for the expenditure function can be obtained when the demand equation is ln linear when the demand equation is not linear the indirect utility function may have to be recovered by numerically solving a differential equation this procedure is dual to the one presented here which focuses on the consumer maximization problem some utility functions such as the one employed in the current work may not lead to a linear demand equation of the form that is conventionally estimated hausman 1999 also suggests an approximate measure of welfare based on a linear demand curve while he states explicitly that this measure of welfare is a lower bound this caveat is often forgotten in applied work it may work well in the cell phone example that he studies as illustrated in the pc example studied here however this approximate demand curve method can lead to a serious underestimate of the welfare gains arising from the introduction of a new product similarly the use of conventional price indices such as the fisher ideal and tornqvist price indices may lead to inaccurate estimates of the consumer surplus that arises from the introduction of a new good and or the good s subsequent price decline the accuracy of such methods will depend on how fast the marginal utility for a new good rises as the quantity consumed goes to zero figuring this out is part and parcel of the new goods problem that is what utility function or demand equation should be used for estimating the welfare associated with the introduction of a new good

presidential address antitrust restrictions on single firm strategies this article offers an overview of selected developments in the law and economics of antitrust regulation of single firm strategies the strategy generating the most cases historically is resale price maintenance here the law has moved sharply in both canada and the u s towards more solid economic foundations yet a gap between the law and economics remains the economics of resale price maintenance is reviewed within a framework that is much simpler and more general than the existing literature the law on a second strategy predatory pricing represents in my view a success story for the influence of economic theory in spite of the absence of a single accepted theory of predatory pricing the remaining single firm strategies are concerned largely with the exclusion by a dominant firm of rivals from a market i review with application to cases the two most basic questions concerning exclusionary strategies are exclusionary anticompetitive contracts ever entered into voluntarily by market participants on the other hand is complete or substantial foreclosure of a market through exclusionary strategies necessarily anticompetitive cette allocution presidentielle a l association canadienne d economique presente une vue d ensemble des developpements dans le droit et l economie de la reglementation antitrust sur les strategies d une firme unique la loi sur la strategie qui genere historiquement le plus de cas le maintien du prix de revente a change dramatiquement au canada et aux etats unis et derive vers une politique qui a des assises economiques solides mais il reste un ecart entre le droit et l economie on reexamine l economie du maintien du prix de revente a l aide d un cadre d analyse qui est a la fois plus simple et plus general que ce qui existe dans la litterature specialisee la loi pour ce qui est d une seconde strategie prix d eviction est a mon avis une grande reussite pour la science economique malgre l absence d une seule theorie du prix d eviction generalement acceptee un troisieme ensemble de strategies concerne l exclusion de ses rivaux d un marche par la firme dominante l auteur reexamine avec un recours extensif aux cas les deux questions de base pour ce qui est des strategies d exclusion est ce que les participants sur un marche entrent jamais volontairement dans un arrangement contractuel qui exclut et est anticoncurrentiel d autre part est ce que la saisie complete ou substantielle d un marche par des man uvres d exclusion est necessairement anticoncurrentielle

did inequality cause the u s financial crisis in his widely discussed book fault lines 2010 raghuram rajan argues that many low and middle income consumers have reduced their saving and increased debt since income inequality started to soar in the united states in the early 1980s this has temporarily kept private consumption and employment high but it also contributed to the creation of a credit bubble this surge in household indebtedness turned out to be unsustainable in the financial crisis starting in 2007 although rajan and others emphasize the role of government in promoting credit to those households with declining relative permanent incomes other strands of the literature have focused more explicitly on the implications of rising inequality for aggregate demand and households demand for credit these differences in emphasis may explain why the literature on the inequality crisis nexus appears somewhat disparate even though the various strands are far from mutually exclusive but rather complement each other we therefore place the rajan hypothesis in the context of competing theories of consumption and survey the empirical literature on the effects of inequality on household behaviour we conclude that the empirical evidence calls for a renaissance of the relative income hypothesis of consumption

house prices and credit constraints making sense of the us experience most us house price models break down in the mid 2000s due to the omission of exogenous changes in mortgage credit supply associated with the sub prime mortgage boom from house price to rent ratio and inverted housing demand models previous models lack data on credit constraints facing first time home buyers incorporating a measure of credit conditions the cyclically adjusted loan to value ratio for first time buyers into house price to rent ratio models yields stable long run relationships more precisely estimated effects reasonable speeds of adjustment and improved model fits

improving environmental valuation estimates through consistent use of revealed and stated preference information abstract environmental valuation data from stated and revealed preference methods are integrated into a unified model of preferences for environmental quality improvement that identifies the use and nonuse components of the total value estimate this articulates clearly what parts of the total value estimate come from each type of data and permits tests of whether estimated preferences satisfy weak complementarity between the environmental good of interest and related private goods the statistical advantages of using more information for the valuation problem are exploited while retaining flexibility to identify value estimates from any individual method of analysis

duality theory for variable costs in joint production duality methods for incomplete systems of consumer demand equations are adapted to the dual structure of variable cost functions in joint production this allows identification of necessary and sufficient restrictions on technology and cost so that con ditional factor demands can be written as functions of input prices fixed inputs and cost these are observable when variable inputs are chosen and committed to production hence the identified restrictions allow ex ante conditional demands to be studied using observable data this class of production technologies is consistent with all von neu mann morgenstern utility functions when ex post production and or output prices are un certain

note note on optimal ordering quantity to realize a pre determined level of profit in this note we consider the one period inventory model in which it is required to determine the order quantity which maximizes the probability of realizing a predetermined level of profit r we give a condition for determining the optimal order quantity and provide explicit expressions for the optimal order quantity in three special cases

price and quality of desktop and mobile personal computers a quarter century historical overview when introduced in 1976 personal computers pc s had only several kilobytes of randomaccess memory ram and no hard disk processed commands at speeds of less than 1 megahertz mhz yet typically cost several thousand dollars today s pc s have megabytes mb of ram and gigabytes of hard disk memory process commands at speeds exceeding 1 000 mhz and often cost less than 1 000 ever more powerful pc boxes have been transformed into increasingly smaller and lighter notebooks in the context of such rapid technological progress government statistical agencies face the formidable tasks of reliably tracking real output growth in the pc industry and adjusting pc prices for quality changes in 1986 following collaboration with ibm researchers the bureau of economic analysis bea began adjusting mainframe computer prices for quality change using hedonic price methods rosanne cole et al 1986 in 1990 the bureau of labor statistics bls first published an experimental price index for mainframe computers also based on hedonic methods today the bls publishes producer and consumer price indexes for a number of electronic goods including informationprocessing equipment using hedonic price methods dennis fixler et al 1999 the hedonic regression methods employed by researchers and government statisticians to adjust pc prices for quality changes are usually based on pooled cross section and time series data and they typically assume some parameter equality across models as well as some parameter stability over time here we report on results from an examination of the stability of annual pc hedonic price parameters over almost the first quarter century of their history 1976 1999 and on the equality of estimated hedonic price parameters between desktop and mobile models we compute price indexes based on alternative assumptions concerning parameter equality and stability and we assess at what point in time when constructing price indexes mobile and desktop models were appropriately treated as distinct product groups

exact consumer s surplus and deadweight loss consumer s surplus is a widely used tool in applied welfare economics both economic theorists and cost benefit analysis often use consumer s surplus despite its somewhat dubious reputation the basic idea is to evaluate the value to a consumer or his willingness to pay for a change in price of a good from say pricep to pricep because price changes affect consumer welfare an evaluation of this effect is often a key input to public policy decisions yet consumer s surplus is probably the most controversial of widely used economic concepts both paul samuelson and ian little conclude that the economics profession would be better off without it it is my feeling of the situation that substantial agreement exists on the correct quantities to be measured the amount the consumer would pay or would need to be paid to be just as well off after the price change as he was before the price change the quantities correspond to john hicks compensating variation measures an alternative measure which takes ex post price change utility as the basis of comparison is hicks equivalent variation the controversy arises in the measurement of these quantities the usual measurement procedure is to use the area to the left of the marshallian market demand curve between two price levels jules dupuit originated this measure of welfare change and alfred marshall and hicks derived appropriate conditions for its use the primary condition for the area to the left of the demand curve to correspond to the compensating variation is to have constant marginal utility of income marshall gave this condition and if it holds the same quantity will be derived as the area to the left of the compensated hicksian demand curve this area to the left of the compensated demand curve is exactly what the compensating variation and equivalent variation measure thus the constant marginal utility of income is a sufficient condition for marshallian consumer s surplus to be equal to hicks consumer s surplus in this case arnold harberger s plea to use the welfare triangle as one half times the product of the price change times the quantity change to measure deadweight loss corresponds to the correct theoretical amount of welfare change in a recent paper robert willig derives bounds for the percentage difference between the correct measure of either the compensating or equivalent variation and the marshallian measure derived form the market demand curve his bounds which depend on the income elasticity of demand for the single good in the region of price change being considered as well as the proportion of the consumer s income spent on the good demonstrate that the marshallian consumer s surplus is often a good approximation to hicks consumer s surplus the fact that the proportion of the consumer s income spent matters as well as the income elasticity was first pointed out by harold hotelling willig contends that the approximation error will be less than the errors involved in estimating the demand curve thus he hopes to remove the need for apology that applied economists often need to give to theorists who remark on the inappropriateness of using marshallian consumer s surplus to measure welfare change however in this paper i show that for the case primarily considered by willig of a single price change which is also the situation in which consumer s surplus is often used in applied work no approximation is necessary professor of economics massachusetts institute of technology and research associate national bureau of economic research i would like to thank peter diamond erwin diewert daniel mcfadden robert merton robert solow hal varian joel yellin and the referees for help and comments research support from the national science foundation is acknowledged the reason that we still have two rather than one of samuelson s six measures of consumer s surplus arises from an index number problem of the correct basis for the welfare comparison i will give both measures but plan to concentrate on the compensating variation

why the subprime crisis is different a minskyian approach minsky s financial instability model suggests that financial crises can be resolved efficiently with lender of last resort and big government interventions the crisis that began in 2007 hereafter the 2007 crisis has been different it has been more profound and resistant to policy interventions this paper examines why our approach is to expand minsky s balance sheet approach in several ways first we incorporate two factors minsky missed because he built his model in the 1970s the impact of racial exclusion and u s cross border imbalances on u s financial dynamics in addition we draw out the analytical implications of the systematic differences between banks and non banks balance sheets minsky didn t do this but because of the transformation of banking after 1980 these differences have become deeply significant one key effect of so doing is to see that asset liability balances as well as cash flows are crucial in financial dynamics this paper concludes that the 2007 crisis has been so profound and unresponsive to policy intervention for several reasons banks no longer bear as well as originate credit risk banks made exploitative loans to minority borrowers and then generalized these loans as housing prices rose and subprime homeowners and structured investment vehicles became more leveraged than banks copyright the author 2009 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

income distribution credit and fiscal policies in an agent based keynesian model this work studies the interactions between income distribution and monetary and fiscal policies in terms of ensuing dynamics of macro variables gdp growth unemployment etc on the grounds of an agent based keynesian model the direct ancestor of this work is the keynes meeting schumpeter formalism presented in dosi et al 2010 to that model we add a banking sector and a monetary authority setting interest rates and credit lending conditions the model combines keynesian mechanisms of demand generation a schumpeterian innovation fueled process of growth and minskian credit dynamics the robustness of the model is checked against its capability to jointly account for a large set of empirical regularities both at the micro level and at the macro one the model is able to catch salient features underlying the current as well as previous recessions the impact of financial factors and the role in them of income distribution we find that different income distribution regimes heavily affect macroeconomic performance more unequal economies are exposed to more severe business cycles fluctuations higher unemployment rates and higher probability of crises on the policy side fiscal policies do not only dampen business cycles reduce unemployment and the likelihood of experiencing a huge crisis in some circumstances they also affect positively long term growth further the more income distribution is skewed toward profits the greater the effects of fiscal policies about monetary policy we find a strong non linearity in the way interest rates affect macroeconomic dynamics in one regime with low rates changes in interest rates are ineffective up to a threshold beyond which increasing the interest rate implies smaller output growth rates and larger output volatility unemployment and likelihood of crises

getting at systemic risk via an agent based model of the housing market systemic risk must include the housing market though economists have not generally focused on it we begin construction of an agent based model of the housing market with individual data from washington dc twenty years of success with agent based models of mortgage prepayments give us hope that such a model could be useful preliminary analysis suggests that the housing boom and bust of 1997 2007 was due in large part to changes in leverage rather than interest rates

inequality household debt and financial instability an agent based perspective abstract our paper contributes to the literature on the causes of the 2007 2008 financial crisis in the united states by means of an agent based model we replicate an artificial credit network economy in order to assess the impact of growing income inequality in the presence of peer effects and home equity borrowing we show that the resulting debt financed consumption boom jeopardises the stability of the economic system thus paving the way for a financial crisis our model includes a behavioural rule for consumption based on expenditure cascades a hierarchical structure of household finance an articulated credit market with collateralised consumption loans and mortgages and a simple housing market results show that the model is able to capture the economic and social pressure of inequality on low and middle income households that pushes them to increase their consumption via home equity extraction rising non performing loans lead to higher bad debt on the banks balance sheets and consequently to the emergence of a crisis as an endogenous dynamic

the newsboy problem under progressive multiple discounts abstract previous research on the newsboy problem is based on the assumption that excess inventory is either discounted once and sold or disposed of real world settings especially in the apparel industry involve many cases where multiple discounts are used under multiple discounts a retailer has a series of discounts that are progressively used as the product remains on the shelf in this paper we formulate and solve a newsboy problem with multiple e discounts the new problem is solved with the objectives of 1 maximizing the expected profit and 2 maximizing the probability of achieving a target profit we show that multiple discounts when possible provide higher expected profit than using a single discount we verify the analytical results using numerical integration and illustrate the results with numerical examples

welfare measurement in the household production framework the household production approach to consumer behavior developed from the work of gary becker william gorman and kelvin lancaster has considerable descriptive appeal in modelling the decisions of households the approach derives from the observation that households frequently purchase market goods that do not yield utility directly but are combined to produce commodity service flows which the household values thus observed behavior is determined by household production technology as well as by tastes the advantage of this distinction is that we can pose reasonable hypotheses about characteristics of technology though we rarely possess useful a priori information regarding tastes the putative advantages of the household production approach are questioned on empirical and conceptual grounds by robert pollak and michael wachter 1975 they show that jointness in production or nonconstant returns to scale cause implicit commodity prices to depend on both tastes and technology raising serious econometric difficulties in the estimation of commodity demand functions in addition since commodity prices become functions of the commodity bundle consumed the analogy to traditional demand theory breaks down joint production occurs when a good enters several production processes simultaneously or equivalently when a good in one production process also enters directly into the individual s utility function the most common example is time which provides the context for all production processes and is often associated with the production of several commodities simultaneously since joint production in the household is likely to be pervasive the critique by pollak and wachter cannot be ignored in response to the comment by william barnett pollak and wachter 1977 suggest dispensing with the notion of commodity prices and treating the demand for commodities as a function of goods prices this approach confounds tastes and technology but it eliminates the troublesome concept of commodity prices as parameters when in fact they are likely to be endogenous in this paper we show that results from positive analysis such as the critique by pollak and wachter have implications for the use of the household production framework for welfare analysis the household production function approach has had considerable appeal for measuring welfare effects of public actions in the environmental and natural resource areas gardner brown john charbonneau and michael hay elizabeth wilman yet traditional approaches to welfare measurement are frequently inapplicable we argue that welfare measurement in this framework is complicated by the difficulties of unravelling tastes and technology we extend pollak and wachter s results by demonstrating that marshallian demand functions for commodities cannot be uniquely defined thus marshallian functions cannot be used to derive exact compensated functions in the manner of jerry hausman and of george mckenzie and i f pearce nor can compensating and equivalent variation measures be bounded by marshallian consumer s surplus estimates following robert willig in fact duality results that normally allow us to move between marshallian and hicksian functions are not assistant and associate professors respectively department of agricultural and resource economics university of maryland college park md 20742 this paper is scientific article no a3404 contribution no 6476 of the maryland agricultural experiment station we wish to thank darrell hueth james opaluch v kerry smith and elizabeth wilman for comments on an earlier draft

what s the use welfare estimates from revealed preference models when weak complementarity does not hold abstract in this paper we consider the theoretical and empirical ramifications of welfare measurement in revealed preference models when weak complementarity does not hold in the context of a kuhn tucker model of recreation demand we show that while it is possible to estimate preferences that do not appear to exhibit weak complementarity the calculation of welfare measurements from these models requires a cardinal interpretation of preferences that cannot be tested furthermore we reiterate the under appreciated fact that even traditional use value estimates require a cardinal restriction on preferences that while often intuitive also cannot be tested we demonstrate empirically that the choice of restrictions can have significant ramifications as use value estimates can vary based on the assumed preference structure

evaluating the performance of alternative municipal water tariff designs quantifying the tradeoffs between equity economic efficiency and cost recovery the design of municipal water tariffs requires balancing multiple criteria such as financial self sufficiency for the service provider equity among customers and economic efficiency for society a modeling framework is developed for analyzing how alternative municipal water tariff designs affect these three criteria it is then applied to a hypothetical community in which a municipal water utility provides metered piped water and wastewater services to 5 000 households we analyze how the shift from a uniform volumetric tariff to different increasing block tariff ibt designs affects households water use and water bills and how these changes in turn affect measures of equity and economic efficiency for two different financial self sufficiency targets we calculate how changes in assumptions about 1 the correlation between household income and water use and 2 households response to average or marginal prices affect the tariffs performance in terms of these three criteria the results show that ibts perform poorly in terms of targeting subsidies to low income households regardless of the magnitude of financial subsidies that a utility receives from high level government when cost recovery is low the distribution of subsidies under ibts is even worse if the correlation between water use and household income is high ibts introduce price distortions that induce economic efficiency losses but we show that these welfare losses are relatively small especially when households respond to average prices

a macroprudential approach to financial regulation many observers have argued that the regulatory framework in place prior to the global financial crisis was deficient because it was largely microprudential in nature a microprudential approach is one in which regulation is partial equilibrium in its conception and aimed at preventing the costly failure of individual financial institutions by contrast a macroprudential approach recognizes the importance of general equilibrium effects and seeks to safeguard the financial system as a whole in the aftermath of the crisis there seems to be agreement among both academics and policymakers that financial regulation needs to move in a macroprudential direction in this paper we offer a detailed vision for how a macroprudential regime might be designed our prescriptions follow from a specific theory of how modern financial crises unfold and why both an unregulated financial system as well as one based on capital rules that only apply to traditional banks is likely to be fragile we begin by identifying the key market failures at work why individual financial firms acting in their own interests deviate from what a social planner would have them do next we discuss a number of concrete steps to remedy these market failures we conclude the paper by comparing our proposals to recent regulatory reforms in the united states and to proposed global banking reforms

severance taxes and market structure in an exhaustible resource industry abstract this paper compares the effects of a severance tax on profit maximizing competitive and monopolistic firms which explore and produce an exhaustible resource the producers response to the tax are studied and the deadweight losses from the tax are calculated time paths of exploratory effort extraction and price are computed severance taxes lead both producers to reduce production and exploration and cause a shift in the time path for prices the deadweight losses from the tax are low especially in competition the losses in the monopoly case are relatively higher with the tax burden falling mainly on the monopolistic producer

the multi item newsvendor model with cross selling and the solution when demand is jointly normally distributed abstract products are often demanded in tandem because of the cross selling effect the demand for an item can increase if sales of its cross selling associated items are achieved or decrease when the associated items are out of stock resulting in lost sales therefore a joint inventory policy should be pursued in a cross selling system this paper introduces customer driven cross selling into centralized and competitive newsvendor nv models by representing an item s effective demand as a function of other items order quantities we derive first order optimality conditions for the centralized model in addition to pure strategy nash equilibrium conditions and uniqueness conditions of the equilibria for the competitive model we further develop gradient based gb and iteration based ib algorithms to solve the centralized and competitive models respectively a computational study verifies the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms the computational results show that a larger cross selling effect leads to a larger order quantity in a centralized nv model but a smaller order quantity in a competitive nv model and a larger positive correlation between items demands leads to higher profits with smaller order quantities in both models moreover nvs will order more items if the demand variance is greater however resulting in lower profits in a competitive situation one will prefer smaller order quantities than in a centralized decision situation

axiomatic foundations of hicksian measures of welfare change abstract the aggregate hicksian measures i ev i and i cv i are characterized by three simple properties one property concerns the ranking of two states the measures are paretian a second property expresses the postulate that welfare changes are to be evaluated in money the third one deals with redistributions of incomes distributional considerations are taken into account by employing variable distributional weights i

managing inventories with one way substitution a newsvendor analysis abstract this paper presents an insightful approach to analyze two item periodic inventory systems with one way substitution the objective is to minimize the expected total cost per period which consists of expected purchasing costs expected inventory holding costs expected shortage costs and expected adjustment costs this approach helps derive the optimality conditions in both single period and infinite horizon settings and yields useful insights into the impact of substitution on the service level the optimality of a borderline case in which the order up to level of the inflexible item is reduced to zero and the pivotal role of the purchasing cost

a classification of the literature on the planning of substitutable products abstract a company s assortment of products and corresponding inventory levels are constrained by available resources such as production capacity storage space and capital to acquire the inventory thus customers may not always be able to find a most preferred product at the time of purchase this unsatisfied demand is often substituted with an alternative in the extant literature there have been an increasing number of studies that consider product substitution when planning product assortment inventory and capacity in conjunction with pricing in this paper we classify the literature on the planning of substitutable products published in the major om and marketing journals during the past thirty years 1974 2013 and present a comprehensive taxonomy of the literature one criterion is adopted to discuss modeling objectives and three major criteria are provided to define the nature of product substitution including substitution mechanism substitution decision maker and direction of substitutability we also identify research gaps to provide guidance for related research in the future

the benefits of in kind government programs abstract in this paper i present a methodology to calculate the benefits of in kind programs such as public housing which restrict consumption of some goods to the levels offered by the government most previous studies begin with an a priori specification of the direct utility function i begin with the ordinary demand function and then integrate demand to recover the indirect utility function and the expenditure function i argue that this approach gives additional flexibility in choosing a functional form which best describes the data i then use this methodology to estimate the benefits of the u s government s section 8 housing program

a reconsideration of hedonic price indexes with an application to pc s this paper compares hedonic to matched model indexes matched model indexes are averages of the price changes of goods that remain on sampled stores shelves since goods that disappear tend to have falling market values matched model indexes select from the right tail of price changes the bls can construct hedonic indexes that correct for this selection and are justified by standard arguments in an empirical study of pc s hedonics produce sharp price declines while matched model indexes are near zero also though there are modifications to hedonics that seem desirable they are not those in current use

comparing open ended choice experiments and experimental auctions an application to golden rice we use two experimental valuation methods to estimate consumer demand for genetically modified golden rice the first is an open ended choice experiment oece where participants name the quantities of golden rice and conventional rice demanded at each of several price combinations one of which will be randomly chosen as binding this allows us to estimate market demand by aggregating demand across participants this estimate of market demand also allows us to estimate own price elasticity and consumer surplus for golden rice comparing willingness to pay wtp estimates from the oece with those from a uniform price auction we find that oece wtp estimates exhibit less affiliation across rounds and the effects of positive and negative information under the oece are more consistent with prior expectations and existing studies we also find that while auction wtp estimates more than double across five rounds oece wtp estimates are stable across rounds and are always roughly equal to those from the final auction round

valuing consumer products by the time spent using them an application to the internet for some goods the main cost of buying the product is not the price but rather the time it takes to use them only about 0 2 of consumer spending in the u s for example went for internet access in 2004 yet time use data indicates that people spend around 10 of their entire leisure time going online for such goods estimating price elasticities with expenditure data can be difficult and therefore estimated welfare gains highly uncertain we show that for time intensive goods like the internet a simple model in which both expenditure and time contribute to consumption can be used to estimate the consumer gains from a good using just the data on time use and the opportunity cost of people s time i e the wage the theory predicts that higher wage internet subscribers should spend less time online for non work reasons and the degree to which that is true identifies the elasticity of demand based on expenditure and time use data and our elasticity estimate we calculate that consumer surplus from the internet may be around 2 of full income or several thousand dollars per user this is an order of magnitude larger than what one obtains from a back of the envelope calculation using data from expenditures this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

inventory decisions for substitutable products with stock dependent demand abstract we study a retailer s inventory policy for two products the products are substitutable and have inventory dependent demand so a higher inventory level of a product increases its sales we model the joint effect of demand stimulation and product substitution on inventory decisions by considering a single period stochastic demand setting we provide the first order optimality conditions for the profit maximizing order quantities and interpret them using marginal analysis we also consider two heuristic solutions that separately account for either demand stimulation or product substitution our numerical analysis reveals that the optimal policy by appropriately using sales information that quantifies substitution and demand stimulation can produce significantly higher profits the profit benefits are lessened under certain circumstances such as when the two products have similar critical fractile values suggesting that in such instances the heuristics may be used effectively

the financial accelerator in an evolving credit network we model a credit network characterized by credit relationships connecting i downstream d and upstream u firms and ii firms and banks the net worth of d firms is the driver of fluctuations the production of d firms and of their suppliers u firms in fact is constrained by the availability of internal finance proxied by net worth to the d firms the structure of credit interlinkages changes over time due to an endogeneous process of partner selection which leads to the polarization of the network at the aggregate level the distribution of growth rates exhibits negative skewness and excess kurtosis when a shock hits the macroeconomy or a significant group of agents in the credit network a bankruptcy avalanche can follow if agents leverage is critically high in a nutshell we want to explore the properties of a network based financial accelerator

markets and the measurement of value consumer s surplus and the hicksian measures of compensating and equivalent variation have a long history in empirical economic analysis however at both the theoretical and the empirical level economists psychologists and public choice theorists have not been able to reach a significant consensus regarding the usefulness of these measures economic theorists have only recently dissected the differences which exist between alternative welfare measures in a systematic and transparent fashion in willig 1976 hausman 1981 and takayama 1984 the role of income in determining the correct theoretical measurements of compensating and equivalent variations was exposed during this same period of time theoretical results obtained by the psychologists kahneman and tversky 1979 indicated that the fundamental structure of preferences upon which the theoretical economic results are based is flawed the so called prospect theory of decision developed by these authors indicated that measured of welfare based upon payment will differ from measures of welfare based upon compensation because of the fact that individuals will value losses at a greater marginal rate than gains this difference was then predicted to dominate any income effect important in the economist s model finally this period recorded the emergence of many demand revealing processes which provide individuals with appropriate incentives to accurately reveal their preferences as summarized in coursey and schulze 1986 one interpretation of the literature on incentive compatibility suggests a set of well defined guidelines for improving both the accuracy and validity of compensating and equivalent variation measures these differences in professional preferences regarding what is important in improving the accuracy of economic welfare measurements led john

on measuring the value of a nonmarket good using market data we use line integral theory to lay out in a more general theoretical framework the conditions under which it is possible to measure with market data the welfare effects of a change in a nonmarket good we present in detail a numerical method of measuring the value of nonmarket goods using market data under either weak neutrality or weak complementarity our numerical method is more flexible than the existing analytical method because it can be used with any well behaved marshallian demand function and can be used even when the willig condition does not hold

incorporating one way substitution policy into the newsboy problem with imprecise customer demand this paper presents an approach for solving an inventory model for single period products with maximizing its expected profit in a fuzzy environment in which the retailer has the opportunity for substitution though various structures of substitution arise in real life in this study we consider the fuzzy model for two item with one way substitution policy this one way substitutability is reasonable when the products can be stored according to certain attribute levels such as quality brand or package size again to describe uncertainty usually probability density functions are being used however there are many situations in real world that utilize knowledge based information to describe the uncertainty the objective of this study is to provide an analysis of single period inventory model in a fuzzy environment that enables us to compute the expected resultant profit under substitution an efficient numerical search procedure is provided to identify the optimal order quantities in which the utilization of imprecise demand and the use of one way substitution policy increase the average expected profit the benefit of product substitution is illustrated through numerical example

welfare losses due to market power hicksian versus marshallian measurement this paper warns against the use of marshallian welfare loss in applied analysis of market power we show how to compute the hicksian deadweight loss from an ordinary demand then from an experiment using real data on twenty one sectors of the french food industry we find that the marshallian deadweight loss poorly approximates the exact hicksian measure hence it is advisable to use the latter in applied welfare analysis copyright 2001 oxford university press

quality adjusted price indexes and the willig condition abstract this paper provides a graphical explanation of willig s condition for developing consistent price indexes for quality change the framework also describes how the single crossing condition generalizes the willig condition

welfare and distribution effects of water pricing policies in this paper distribution and welfare effects of changes in block price systems are evaluated a method is discussed to determine for a marshallian demand function equivalent variation in case of a block price system the method is applied to compare for the metropolitan region of sao paulo alternative pricing policies on the basis of their demand welfare and distribution effects of changing water prices results show that there is a trade off between average welfare and income distribution a pro poor price system may result in lower average welfare than a flat price system but in higher individual welfare for the poor moreover there is a trade off between revenues for the water company and income distribution even though pro poor price systems may not be as good for average welfare as flat price systems their direct effects on poverty are important introducing pro poor price systems however may have financial consequences for the water companies

recovering weakly complementary preferences abstract this paper demonstrates a method for recovering weakly complementary expenditure and indirect utility functions while integrating back from marshallian demand specifications that do not intrinsically embody weak complementarity weak complementarity of a good with quality provides information about how the constant of integration over price must behave with respect to quality and this information can be incorporated into the process of recovering preferences the weakly complementary expenditure and indirect utility functions are recovered for the linear demand specification and for the stone geary utility function with any value of the subsistence parameter

consumer s surplus without apology the purpose of this paper is to settle the controversy surrounding consumer s surplus and by so doing to validate its use as a tool of welfare economics i will show that observed consumer s surplus can be rigorously utilized to estimate the unobservable compensating and equivalent variations the correct theoretical measures of the welfare impact of changes in prices and income on an individual i derive precise upper and lower bounds on the percentage errors of approximating the compensating and equivalent variations with consumer s surplus these bounds can be explicitly calculated from observable demand data and it is clear that in most applications the error of approximation will be very small in fact the error will often be overshadowed by the errors involved in estimating the demand curve the results in no way depend upon arguments about the constancy of the marginal utility of income consequently this paper supplies specific empirical criteria which can replace the apologetic caveats frequently employed by those who presently apply consumer s surplus moreover the results imply that consumer s surplus is usually a very good approximation to the appropriate welfare measures to preview below i establish the validity of these rules of thumb for a

the taxation of drivers and the choice of car fuel type in this paper the choice of the car fuel type is studied in the dutch situation three types are important gasoline diesel and lpg with 80 of the cars using gasoline incentives for using diesel or lpg are provided by the tax system that implies higher fixed cost but lower variable cost for users of these fuel types we start by studying fuel type choice on the basis of a logit model and move on to estimate demand functions for kilometres driven for social purposes while correcting for the possible selectivity bias we find that diesel and lpg are in general regarded as inferior alternatives but that monetary incentives are sufficiently strong to overcome this hurdle for drivers with a large demand for kilometres we also find that there are significant effects of the lower variable cost for diesel and lpg drivers on their demand for kilometres the conclusions are confirmed by estimation of a structural model in which fuel type choice and demand for kilometres are consistently explained on the basis of one set of preferences and unobserved heterogeneity is taken into account

price and welfare effects of a pharmaceutical substitution reform the price effects of the swedish pharmaceutical substitution reform are analyzed using data for a panel of all pharmaceutical product sold in sweden in 1997 2007 the price reduction due to the reform was estimated to average 10 and was found to be significantly larger for brand name pharmaceuticals than for generics the results also imply that the reform amplified the effect that generic entry has on brand name prices by a factor of 10 results of a demand estimation imply that the price reductions increased total pharmaceutical consumption by 8 and consumer welfare by sek 2 7 billion annually

approximating compensated income from ordinary demand functions abstract this paper proposes a re versible s econd or der t aylor resort approximation to compensated income from ordinary demand functions resort yields the malmquist vartia m v algorithm as a first order case using the slutsky equation resort obtains the substitution matrix and checks it for symmetry and negative semi definiteness to validate compensated income this validation procedure is an improvement over m v

inverse demand systems and welfare measurement in quantity space most studies of welfare or cost benefit analyses are concerned with the welfare effects of price changes 11 19 27 33 50 there are however many situations in which policy options are directly related to quantity changes the welfare effects of price changes are analyzed with the traditional demand system in which commodity quantities are determined as functions of their prices the welfare effects of quantity changes on the other hand are associated with the inverse demand system in which commodity prices are dependent on their quantities in conventional welfare analysis of price change prices are taken to be exogenous or predetermined while quantities are endogenous in contrast in welfare analysis of quantity changes quantities are exogenous while prices are endogenous price based or dual welfare measures are relevant when there are well functioning competitive markets and quantities are fully adjusted to changes in prices on the other hand quantity based or primal welfare measures are useful in situations where there are constraints on commodity quantities or when transaction costs impede consumers from fully adjusting to changes in prices the choice between priceand quantity based welfare measures is empirical and proper measurement of welfare effects requires the knowledge as to which variable price or quantity is the exogenous one for individual consumers it may be reasonable to assume that the supply of commodities is perfectly elastic and therefore prices can be taken as exogenous but this assumption may not be tenable for consumers in the aggregate or if highly aggregated economy wide data are used to estimate demand relations at the aggregate level quantities are more properly viewed as exogenous than are prices although individual consumers make their consumption decisions based on given prices the quantities of commodities are predetermined by production at the market level and prices must adjust so that the available quantities are consumed 28 1 2

further results on willingness to pay for nonmarket goods abstract some implications of substitution relationships between private and public goods for measuring the value of changes in nonmarket goods such as environmental quality are explored if a market good is hicks neutral to quality for some price vector the total value of discrete changes in quality consisting of both use and nonuse value can be measured from empirical demand coefficients a plausible motivation for neutrality is developed in the contexts of specifying incomplete demand systems for weak complements to quality and measuring nonuse value when the consumption of weak complements is held at zero previous results on bounding marginal willingness to pay for nonmarket goods are also strengthened

expenditure function estimates of the efficiency and distributive impact of indirect taxes in the united kingdom abstract this paper uses the expenditure function to consider the efficiency and distributional impact of indirect taxes in the united kingdom estimates of the parameters of the linear expenditure system of demand equations are employed to measure the compensating variation and equivalent variation costs of taxes on households in different income groups in addition distributional weights are used to consider the overall impact of different taxes and tax changes on social welfare finally we consider other types of demand system estimates which might be used in this kind of exercise

rules versus discretion in food storage policies this article compares various policies in a rational expectations food storage model with risk averse consumers and missing insurance markets calibrated to represent a developing country i consider an optimal storage policy under discretion and two optimal simple rules a constant private storage subsidy and a price band the storage subsidy achieves welfare gains similar to the discretionary policy the price band maximizing social welfare is a price peg scheme the floor and ceiling prices are the same and the capacity constraint represents 11 of the steady state production level this price band achieves three quarters of the gains from the optimal policy under discretion

equity and efficiency aspects of rent control an empirical study of new york city modem rent controls arose during world war ii to deal with the war related influx into urban areas since then numerous cities have either considered adopted or eliminated rent controls the policy debate about the desirability of rent controls continues unabated and becomes particularly acute when high inflation rates drive up rents rapidly rent controls have both efficiency and distributional consequences the economics literature has produced theoretical insights about the inefficiencies created by rent controls this literature is frequently cited by opponents of rent controls who argue that the efficiency costs of rent controls are manifested in a decaying housing stock and altered mobility patterns proponents of rent control invariably argue that the distributional impacts of rent controls outweigh efficiency costs considering the large number of cities that have investigated or adopted rent controls relatively little empirical research documents either the efficiency or distributional effects of rent controls the most notable exceptions are the studies of new york city by de salvo 3 olsen 13 and roistacher 15 and the studies of los angeles by rydell et al 16 and fallis and smith 4 more recently linneman lo and marks 12 have further examined ramifications of rent controls in new york city and vancouver this paper fills some gaps in knowledge about the effects of rent controls we examine rent controls in new york city in 1968 using the new york city housing and vacancy survey 2 the paper extends the work of olsen 13 although there are important differences in both the questions addressed and methodology used this paper examines in detail the distributional consequences of rent controls for new york city residents both

a consistent semiparametric estimation of the consumer surplus distribution abstract in this paper we examine the consequences of demand function heterogeneity for the estimation of the consumer surplus in particular we show that given a linear demand function with random coefficients one can consistently estimate the consumer surplus distribution without making parametric assumptions about the coefficient distribution the approach is illustrated using data on gasoline consumption

measuring option prices from market behavior abstract option prices can be calculated from empirical demand models given knowledge of the utility theoretic structure implied by the demand specifications and the joint density of the random variables consumers face formulas for option price are given for three common weakly complementary demand specifications because it can be difficult to assess behavioral uncertainty and calculate option prices in practice knowledge of the sign of option value is important since it is a guide to the bias from ignoring this type of uncertainty the sign of option value is determined for sources of uncertainty that have proved elusive in previous treatments

linear demand functions in theory and practice abstract integrability conditions for an incomplete system of linear demand functions are considered the parameter restrictions consistent with integrability are identified and the structure of the conditional preference map is obtained it is found that the conditional preferences for a set of linear demand functions are either quadratic or leontief from a translated origin welfare analysis with linear demand models is also considered

between scylla and charybdis income distribution consumer credit and business cycles we introduce a macroeconomic model with heterogeneous households and an aggregate banking sector in order to analyze the impact of rising income inequality under different credit scenarios growing inequality produces debt led consumption boom dynamics when the banking sector is characterized by a lower capital requirement and a higher willingness to lend instead when inequality rises but the banking sector is highly regulated aggregate demand and output fall our results also yield new insights on the appropriate fiscal policy reaction to stabilize the economy acting on the progressivity of the tax system seems more effective than a proactive countercyclical fiscal policy jel c63 d31 e62 g01

income inequality consumption credit and credit risk in a data driven agent based model abstract the issue of income inequality occupies a prominent position in the research agenda of academic and policy circles alike especially after the crisis of 2008 due to its potential causal link with the development of credit bubbles and therefore the emergence of financial crises this paper examines the long run effect of income inequality on consumption consumer credit and non performing loans through the means of a data driven agent based model the data driven nature of the model enhances its ability to match historical series and thus makes it suitable for policy simulations tailored for specific economies the analysis indicates that higher income inequality has a detrimental impact on consumption and is associated with lower volumes of consumer credit however the ratio of non performing loans as a share of total loans seems to be independent of income inequality

environmental food taxes and inequalities simulation of a meat tax in sweden abstract this paper investigates the distributional effect of an environmental tax on meat in sweden if such a tax was to be introduced welfare effects are measured as compensation variation cv for multiple price changes where hicksian cross price elasticities household expenditures and price changes are included in the calculations results show that taxes on meat are almost neutral over households when expenditures on meat are used as welfare indicators and regressive if income is used this can be explained by the households similar shares of total expenditures on meat the households with the smallest income levels need to be compensated with 904 sek per person and year equivalent to euro 86 6 per year in the year 2009 exchange rate to feel that utility is not lowered if taxes on meat are introduced and the households with the highest income levels need to be compensated with 1141 sek euro 109 3 per person and year for the year 2009 these compensations correspond to 0 74 and 0 78 of total expenditures for the low and high income group respectively when instead comparing the compensation with income levels the effects correspond to 0 99 for the households with the smallest income levels and to 0 51 for the households with the largest income

information provision and consumer behavior a natural experiment in billing frequency abstract in this study i estimate a causal effect of increased billing frequency on consumer behavior i exploit a natural experiment in which residential water customers switched exogenously from bimonthly to monthly billing customers increase consumption by 3 5 5 in response to more frequent information this result is reconciled in models of price and quantity uncertainty where increases in billing frequency reduce the distortion in consumer perceptions using treatment effects as sufficient statistics i calculate consumer welfare gains equivalent to 0 5 1 of annual water expenditures heterogeneous treatment effects suggest increases in outdoor water use