career concerns in a simple experimental labour market abstract we experimentally investigate a simple version of holmstrom s career concerns model in which firms compete for agents in two consecutive periods profits of firms are determined by agents unknown ability and the effort they choose before making second period wage offers firms are informed about first period profits in a different treatment firms additionally learn the abilities of agents theory suggests high first period equilibrium effort in the hidden ability treatment but no effort elsewhere however we find that effort tends to be higher in the revealed ability treatment and therefore conclude that transparency does not weaken but strengthen career concerns incentives

agroindustrialization globalization and international development an overview of issues patterns and determinants this paper offers an overview for a special issue on agroindustrialization globalization and international development it sets out a conceptual framework for understanding the links among these three broad phenomena and then discusses emerging issues and evidence concerning the factors conditioning agroindustrialization in developing countries and the subsequent effects on employment poverty and the natural environment we conclude with a research agenda

losing credibility the stabilization blues in exchange rate based stabilization programs credibility often follows a distinct time pattern at first it rises as the highly visible nominal anchor provides a sense of stability and hopes run high for a permanent solution to fiscal problems later as the domestic currency appreciates in real terms and the fiscal problems are not fully resolved the credibility of the program falls sometimes precipitously this paper develops a political economy model that focuses on the evolution of credibility over time and is consistent with the pattern just described inflation inertia and costly budget negotiations play a key role

buying less but shopping more the use of nonmarket labor during a crisis households allocating time between market and non market uses should respond to income variations by adjusting the time devoted to shopping search and other home production activities in this paper we exploit high frequency household expenditure data to examine the use of changes in shopping intensity as a method of mitigating the effects of the 2002 argentine economic crisis although the total quantity and real value of goods purchased fell during the crisis consumers are found to be doing more shopping search this increase in shopping is shown to enable households to seek out lower prices and locate substitutes allowing a given level of expenditure to buy more goods the magnitude and prevalence of these effects suggest that this non market use of labor can be an important coping strategy for households during a recession

credibility of policies versus credibility of policymakers standard models of policy credibility defined as the expectation that an announced policy will be carried out emphasize the preferences of the policymaker and the role of tough policies in signaling toughness and raising credibility whether a policy is carried out however will also reflect the state of the economy we present a model in which a policymaker maintains a fixed parity in good times but devalues if the unemployment rate gets too high our main conclusion is that if there is persistence in unemployment observing a tough policy in a given period may lower rather than raise the credibility of a no devaluation pledge in subsequent periods we test this implication on ems interest rates and find support for our hypothesis

international organizations and the political economy of reforms abstract we develop a simple dynamic model of policy reform that captures some of the determinants that underlie the differences between the reform paths taken by a number of countries since the early 1990s the model focuses on the interaction between domestic institutions and international organizations that promote reform on the one hand and the political incentives for reversing reforms on the other at equilibrium there are three types of reform paths a country can undergo a full scale lasting reform can carry out a partial but lasting reform or can go through cycles of reforms and costly counter reforms domestic institutions along with the incentives provided by international organizations determine the equilibrium path a politically myopic international organization may induce cycles of reforms and costly counter reforms thereby reducing the country s well being an international organization that only provides funds to promote reforms may have a less beneficial effect than one that assists the country with fresh funds to defend reforms when there is a risk of reversal international funds that promote reforms can also influence domestic institutions for example due to the intervention of an international organization countries could have incentives to dismantle institutions that build up reversal cost and or do not fully build their fiscal capacity

institutional change in value chains evidence from tea in nepal local conditions in developing countries have long played a part in determining whether their small scale firms can benefit from deepening their participation in global value chains gvcs institutional theory allows us to characterize these local conditions not simply as particularistic oddities but rather as elements of an institutional matrix that affects the livelihoods of chain participants however the institutional dimension of gvc analysis has been traditionally neglected in the literature to the detriment of our understanding of the impacts of upgrading in gvcs this study aims to remedy this failure by illustrating how institutional context mediates between value chain upgrading and the livelihoods of chain participants it particular it seeks to elucidate how value chain upgrading spurs a process of change in the institutions that govern the livelihoods of suppliers in developing countries this examination sheds light on the more general question of how value chain upgrading sometimes helps but sometimes hurts the welfare of chain participants this theoretical contribution to the value chain literature is based upon an institutional analysis of primary qualitative data from more than 80 small scale tea farmers in nepal some of whom had upgraded from conventional to organically certified production our study finds that value chain upgrading launches a process of institutional change that can be summarized in a general typology the typology highlights how rules strategies organizations and informal norms affect whether a given upgrading intervention yields livelihood benefits in a particular place upgrading can yield positive impacts in chain linked livelihood dimensions such as price and yet induce negative changes in other livelihood dimensions such as risk and thereby yield overall adverse livelihood implications in a process we dub immiserizing upgrading these findings contribute to advancing the conceptual literature on global value chains gvcs by suggesting a general typology for cycles of institutional change that influence livelihood outcomes the typology provides a framework to analyze such processes that is also of use to development practitioners seeking to understand the conditions under which upgrading worsens or improves the welfare of value chain participants the research findings provide an interesting window into how certification schemes interact with the daily lives of the rural poor

managerial incentive problems a dynamic perspective the paper studies how a person s concern for a future career may influence his or her incentives to put in effort or make decisions on the job in the model the person s productive abilities are revealed over time through observations of performance there are no explicit output contingent contracts but since the wage in each period is based on expected output and expected output depends on assessed ability an implicit contract links today s performance to future wages an incentive problem arises from the person s ability and desire to influence the learning process and therefore the wage process by taking unobserved actions that affect today s performance the fundamental incongruity in preferences is between the individual s concern for human capital returns and the firm s concern for financial returns the two need be only weakly related it is shown that career motives can be beneficial as well as detrimental depending on how well the two kinds of capital returns are aligned it is well understood by now that informational externalities may place special demands on the organization of economic exchange simple price mediated markets will frequently fail in the presence of asymmetric information in that case more elaborate contractual arrangements have to be used as substitutes for the price system lately considerable effort has been devoted to the analysis of contracting under incomplete information with the objective to understand the range of economic institutions that emerge in response to the failure of the price system the analysis of moral hazard has played a prominent role in this development moral hazard problems arise when for some reason or another transacting parties cannot contract contingent on the delivery of the good for instance in buying labour services it may be that the amount of labour supplied is not directly observable precluding a simple exchange of wage for labour as a partial remedy to this problem an imperfect mutually observed signal about the supply of labour can be used as a proxy in the contract frequently output is taken as such a proxy the drawback is that output is often influenced by other factors than labour input which induce undesirable risk into the contract one is therefore faced with a tradeoff between allocating risk associated with incomplete observability and providing incentives for a proper supply of labour gaining insight into this tradeoff is important not only for understanding contracting in the small e g managerial incentive schemes but also because it is closely related to the fundamental tension between equity and efficiency in the society as a whole while our understanding of moral hazard has advanced a lot in past years it is clear that much work remains an important question that has received little attention until

career concerns incentives an experimental test abstract holmstrom s holmstrom b 1982 1999 managerial incentive problems a dynamic perspective review of economic studies 66 169 182 originally published in essays in economics and management in honour of lars wahlbeck helsinki career concerns model has become a workhorse for analyzing agency issues in many fields the underlying signal jamming argument requires players to use information in a bayesian way which is difficult to directly test with field data typically little is known about the information that individuals base their decisions on our laboratory experiment provides prima facie evidence i the signal jamming mechanism successfully creates incentives on the labor supply side ii decision errors take time to decrease iii while subjects average beliefs are remarkably consistent with play a mild winner s curse arises on the labor demand side

global land investments in the bio economy evidence and policy implications for countries dependent on agriculture the recent wave of investor interest in farmland could in principle help set in motion a virtuous cycle of economic growth and poverty reduction a large literature documenting failure of such investments documents the risks involved to appreciate associated opportunities and challenges we review past experience quantify country level potential for area expansion versus intensification and identify determinants of countries attractiveness for investors in the initial stages of the land rush the fact that weak land governance seems to increase rather than reduce land demand justifies an emphasis on improving institutions transparency and accountability while at the same time providing concrete suggestions for policy and research

sobre el rol de las politicas fiscales y financieras en las fluctuaciones macroeconomicas we study second best macroeconomic policies for open economies subject to intertemporal sustainability problems and where agents may face liquidity constraints if the private sector has biased expectations of future incomes fiscal policies could offset the consequent distortions according to the nature and origin of those biases when some agents confront liquidity constraints there is a potential counter cyclical role for policies that shift current disposable incomes with heterogeneous agents macroeconomic policies may be confronted with dilemmas whose resolution involves distributive considerations

why genius leads to adversity experimental evidence on the reputational effects of task difficulty choices we use a behavioral laboratory experiment to study how agents with reputation concerns select the difficulty of their tasks drawing upon existing theory we subjected participants in our study to a context in which they had to convince a principal of their capability to reap financial benefits our results show that participants tended to increase the difficulty of their task to enhance their reputation in addition we provide evidence that performance rewards reduce a less capable agent s tendency to choose a more difficult task whereas a highly capable agent s pattern of choices is unaffected by performance rewards although the productivity of agents in our experiment therefore decreased if they had to convince a principal of their capability we show that these detrimental performance implications can to some degree be overcome for less capable agents through performance rewards or by ensuring that the principal can interpret the agent s choice this paper was accepted by christoph loch r d and product development

contract farming smallholders and rural development in latin america the organization of agroprocessing firms and the scale of outgrower production abstract this paper demonstrates how contract farming functions as an economic institution and explores the causes of the observed variation in the scale of outgrower production in latin america we outline how market imperfections and transaction costs influence the decision of agroprocessing firms to contract out vertically integrate or use spot markets to obtain raw product the paper demonstrates how market conditions are likely to be associated with particular outgrower characteristics under contract farming an analysis of the mexican frozen vegetable industry illustrates determinants of successful and unsuccessful small scale contracting and suggests alternative policies to promote contract farming with smallholders

from plantations to smallholder production the role of policy in the reorganization of the sri lankan tea sector summary the sri lankan tea sector has changed from one dominated by vertically integrated plantations to one where independent processors of black tea purchase their input green leaf tea from small independent growers this paper provides a unifying conceptual framework to characterize three major factors affecting the changes in vertical coordination arrangements transaction production and management costs regulation and government policy have altered these determinants of organizational change transaction costs have been reduced by state intervention into the price for green leaf which subsequently lowered the risk of processors re negotiating prices downward production costs which continue to be dominated by labor expenses due to the lack of technological developments for harvesting have increased more for plantations than independent producers due to union pressures

modern value chains and the organization of agrarian production empirical studies of agrarian production in developing countries often find that small farms possess a productivity advantage over larger farms eswaran and kotwal 1986 famously derive this inverse farm size productivity relationship from the structure of agrarian production the focal prediction of their model is that in otherwise equivalent economies a more egalitarian land distribution raises both output and producer welfare the traditional spot procurement system implicit in the eswaran and kotwal model however diverges fundamentally from modern contractual procurement practices we therefore develop a new model of agrarian production in order to determine whether the introduction of a modern value chain alters the welfare effects of land redistribution the inverse farm size productivity relationship persists in our model but we find that more egalitarian land distribution leads to nonmonotonic changes in producer welfare we also find that the introduction of a modern sector can harm the laboring classes

the peasant in economic modernization peasants self employed tillers of soil whose farm production is based mainly on family labor as an integral part of household activities have been for thousands of years and still are today the majority of mankind their production mode represents a sharp contrast with the large internal organization of modern corporate firms characterized by a hierarchy of employees an apparently archaic style of peasant farming relative to modern corporate activities has often led to a presumption that the peasantry is a remnant of feudal society and bound to disappear as modernization proceeds as a corollary it has been argued that consolidation of peasants into large farm enterprises is desirable or necessary for promoting agricultural productivity growth consistent with modern economic development this perspective has been waning recently partly because of the disastrous experience of collective farming in former socialist economies as well as repeated failures in the attempt to develop large farms as both state and private enterprises in developing economies eicher and baker johnson and ruttan concurrently the high potential of peasants to achieve productivity growth has been recognized with the successful diffusion of modern high yielding varieties and related inputs the so called green revolution in asia yet pessimism about peasant agriculture persists and tends to distort the development strategy of the third world toward favoring large farm estates binswanger deininger and feder eicher and rukuni more ambiguous is the role of peasants in industrial and commercial development the traditional view from karl marx to w arthur

great expectations and hard times the argentine convertibility plan this paper studies the process that led to the argentine crisis the analysis concentrates on the sequence of public and private decisions together with the varying perceptions and policy incentives that motivated them in the 1990s argentina searched for a new growth trend during much of the period the behavior of agents seemed to be based on the anticipation that current and future incomes could sustain a value of domestic spending much higher than in the past in both real and dollar terms the government was motivated to reinforce those expectations for signaling and political economy reasons the monetary regime not only provided a very visible nominal anchor but also operated as a basic framework for financial contracts mostly denominated in dollars dollar contracting implicitly presumed that the dollar value of incomes would support the servicing of debts despite precautionary actions on the part of the government and the private sector over time an increasing mass of decisions and contracts came to rely on the sustainability of the real exchange rate in the late 1990s exports stopped rising and the foreign supply of credit tightened the economy contracted in the face of these constraints and the solvency of the government was called into question the financial system was vulnerable both in the event of devaluation and in the event of a large deflation cum adjustment convertibility proved to have very large exit costs as was implicit in its design and management

economic and ecological trade offs of agricultural specialization at different spatial scales specialization in agricultural systems can lead to trade offs between economic gains and ecosystem functions we suggest and explore a conceptual framework in which economic gains can be maximized when production activities are specialized at increasingly broader scales from the household to the village region or above particularly when markets for outputs and inputs function well conversely more specialization likely reduces biodiversity and significantly limits ecosystem functions when agricultural specialization increases and moves to broader scales as a result of improved infrastructure and markets or other drivers ecosystem functions can also be endangered at broader spatial scales policies to improve agricultural incomes may influence the level of specialization at different scales and thus affect the severity of the trade offs this paper takes jambi province in indonesia a current hotspot of rubber and oil palm monoculture as a case study to illustrate these issues we empirically show that the level of specialization differs across scales with higher specialization at household and village levels and higher diversification towards the province level we discuss ways to resolve trade offs between economic gains and ecological costs including landscape design targeted policies and adoption of long term perspectives

reforms globalization and endogenous agricultural structures in this paper i draw lessons from two quasi natural experiments the transition process in former communist countries and the rapid globalization of food chains on the optimality of farms and agricultural structures more generally i argue that a the farm structures that have emerged from the transition process are much more diverse than expected ex ante b this diversity is to an important extent determined by economic mechanisms which are influenced by initial conditions eg technology and reform policies c non traditional farm structures have played an important role during transition since they were optimal to address the specific institutional and structural constraints imposed by the transition process d there is more diversity than often argued in the farms that are integrated in global food chains e endogenous institutional contracting innovations in food chains may lock existing farm structures in a long run institutional framework and f indicators based on farm structures are not a good measure of welfare effects of the globalization of food chains

growth structural change and plantation tree crops the case of rubber abstract the effects of advancing economic growth on plantations are classed in five stages starting with conditions in a backward subsistence economy and ending under circumstances where manufacturing is dominant and planting tree crops no longer economic changes in relative resource prices and other factors and consequent adjustments of estates and smallholdings are taken into account doing this in light of international experiences with such crops the case of natural rubber is scrutinized in depth comparing economic effects and responses at each stage in chief producing countries the key elements in plantation adjustments of market conditions technology institutional arrangements and government interventions are finally addressed with policies likely to facilitate appropriate modifications being indicated

agrifood industry transformation and small farmers in developing countries summary this article introduces this special issue on the rapid transformation of the agrifood industry in developing countries and its effects on small farmers we review the literature from the late 1980s to the present and find evidence first of food processing then retail transformation and mixed evidence of impacts on small farmers both inclusion particularly with resource providing contracts and exclusion sometimes from scale constraint sometimes from inadequate non land assets the special issue papers contribute to the debate by confirming the mix of cases of inclusion and exclusion the cases are main in horticulture and dairy key hopes for smallholder development

behavioural and material determinants of production relations in agriculture in this essay we develop a framework for analysing the major institutions governing the production and exchange of output and the primary factors of production in rural areas the analysis incorporates general considerations of risk and information constraints jointly with the principal material attributes of agriculture and of agricultural production factors the framework is used to analyse barriers to the existence of the major intertemporal and factor markets it is applied specifically to land scarce environments for which it provides an internally consistent explanation for many of the well documented institutional features of such settings in addition the analysis provides new implications for among other phenomena the inter relationships among ownership holdings operational scale family size and factor productivity for the scarcity of animal rental markets and use of animals as collateral for the renting out of land by small landowners and for the existence of plantations for certain crops

coping with terms of trade shocks pegs versus floats the choice of the exchange rate regime has always been an area of great controversy and debate the discussion has once again taken center stage in the developing world the sequence of currency crises in the 1990 s the success of cultency board arrangements the dollarization plan of ecuador and the apparent swing toward flexible regimes of many emerging economies has revived interest in this debate milton friedman 1953 argued that one of the most important advantages of flexible regimes over fixed regimes is that they can smooth adjustment to real shocks even in the presence of nominal rigidities ever since this has been one of the least disputed benefits attributed to fully flexible exchange rate regimes subsequent to friedman many theories of the international transmission of real shocks have confirmed the original intuition that the shortrun responses to terms of trade shocks should be different across exchange rate regimes here i look at a post bretton woods sample of 74 developing countries to test whether flexible regimes can buffer terms of trade shocks better than fixed regimes

preschool and maternal labour market outcomes evidence from a regression discontinuity design in developing countries employment rates for mothers with young children are relatively low this study analyzes how maternal labor market outcomes in argentina are affected by the preschool attendance of their children using pooled household surveys we show that 4 year olds with birthdays on june 30 have sharply higher probabilities of preschool attendance than children born on july 1 given enrollment age rules regression discontinuity estimates using this variation suggest that preschool attendance of the youngest child in the household increases the probability of full time employment and weekly hours of maternal employment we find no effect of preschool attendance on maternal labor outcomes for children who are not the youngest in the household