where do markets come from production markets have two sides producers are a fully connected clique transacting with buyers as a separate but aggregated clique each producer is a distinctive firm with a distinctive product each side continually monitors reactions of the other through the medium of a joint social construction the schedule of terms of trade each producer is guided in choice of volume by the tangible outcomes of other producers not by speculation on hypothetical reactions of buyers to its actions each producer acts purely on self interest based on observed actions of all others summarized through a feedback process the summary is the terms of trade schedule which reduces to constant price only in limiting cases the market emerges as a structure of roles with a differentiated niche for each firm explicit formulae both for firms and for market aggregates are obtained by comparative statics methods for one family of assumptions about cost structures and about buyers evaluations of differentiated products not just any set of firms can sustain terms of trade with any set of buyers there prove to be three main kinds of markets and three sorts of market failure within a parameter space that is specified in detail one sort of market paradox has a madison avenue flavor another is more conventional grind and a third crowded is a new form not included in any existing theory of markets current american industrial markets are drawn on for 20 illustrations of which three are presented in some detail inequality in firms market shares measured by gini coefficients is discussed

more shock than therapy market transition employment and income in russia 1991 1995 sixteen predictions from market transition theory are assessed using survey data on employment earnings and income in russia during the first five years of market reform although the private sector has grown self employment is still rare incomes are down and unemployment is up a distended income distribution reflects unprecedented income inequality distinctive features of late soviet era stratification persist low returns to education a gender gap in earnings and low earnings among professionals the russian market transition offers more opportunity in trade consumer services and speculation and less in manufacturing than do other emerging makets this corresponds to merchat capitalism and contradicts the predictions of market transition theory everything the communists told us about communism was a lie everything they told us about capitalism turns out to be true popular russian joke circa 1996

politics growth and inequality in rural china does it pay to join the party abstract economic reform is often constrained because rank and file bureaucrats responsible for implementation have vested interests that oppose change drawing on an unusual longitudinal survey data set for a representative rural county in northern china we show an alternative positive scenario consistent with the presence of an implicit performance based incentive contract that ties the household incomes of local officials to market liberalization increases in consumer demand and the provision of local public goods the mechanisms appear to be tolerated as the fruits of growth are shared fairly equitably thus allowing implementation of a politically and economically self reinforcing reform process

interpreting economic time series this paper explores some of the implications for econometric practice of the principle that people s observed behavior will change when their constraints change in dynamic contexts a proper definition of people s constraints includes among them laws of motion that describe the evolution of the taxes they must pay and the prices of the goods that they buy and sell changes in agents perceptions of these laws of motion or constraints will in general produce changes in the schedules that describe the choices they make as a function of the information that they possess until very recently received dynamic econometric practice ignored this principle the practice of dynamic econometrics should be changed so that it is consistent with the principle that people s rules of choice are influenced by their constraints this is a substantial undertaking and involves major adjustments in the ways that we formulate estimate and simulate econometric models

regional variation in earnings inequality in reform era urban china this article studies the regional variation in earnings inequality in contemporary urban china focusing on the relationship between the pace of economic reforms and earning determination through

market transition government policies and interprovincial migration in china 1983 1988 a 10 random sample of china 1988 2 1000 fertility and birth control survey data was analyzed to determine to what extent chinas transition to a market economy affects migration patterns in the country and to what extent the government policy of establishing rural enterprises reduced migration from rural areas the survey was conducted by chinas state family planning commission in july august 1988 and covered a nationally representative sample of individuals aged 15 64 years at the time of the survey data were collected on interprovincial migration trends for all members in the households surveyed the study findings concerning individual level characteristics of interprovincial migration during 1983 88 are consistent with previous research in china and in other developing countries however unique to the findings for china is the effect of province level characteristics individuals are more likely to move out of provinces with a large population and a lower level of economic development this phenomenon is in line with classic arguments about migration and economic development foreign investment slightly reduces migration out of provinces receiving investment with migrants being more likely to choose provinces with high levels of foreign capital investment as destinations foreign investment leads to both direct job opportunities and secondary opportunities created by economic growth

chinese villages and townships as industrial corporations ownership governance and market discipline1 public firms in a reforming socialist economy face two problems the old soft budget constraint syndrome and new principal agent problems china s township village government owned enterprises tves outperform state owned enterprises soes in growth rate and productivity three explanations are proposed in the literature 1 tves represent informal or ambiguous private property rights which are most efficient in partial reform 2 the small size and scale of township village governments as industrial corporations allows officials to monitor tves directly and to limit their wherewithal for cross subsidizing 3 strict market disciplines facing tves render indirect market monitoring to mitigate agency problems effectively analyses of jiangyin data show that a while both superior to local soes village and township enterprises share similar productivity and b the scale of township village corporations slightly increases productivity i conclude that local state corporatism should be revised to inc

economic transformation and income inequality in urban china evidence from panel data using panel data of 4 730 urban residents drawn from 20 cities in china this article examines changes in income determinants between the prereform and reform eras to guide this empirical study a conceptual model is developed that emphasizes the coevolution of politics and markets to synthesize theoretical ideas in the recent debate on the transformation of state socialist societies the findings show significant changes in returns to education and in the rise of private hybrid firms in the reform era there is also strong evidence of institutional persistence in returns to positional power and in the organizational hierarchy these findings reveal multifaceted processes of transformation that call for more sophisticated theoretical models and in depth institutional analyses

seigniorage operating rules and the high inflation trap there may be both a high and a low inflation equilibrium when the government finances the deficit through seigniorage under rational expectations the high inflation equilibrium is stable and the low inflation equilibrium unstable under adaptive expectations or lagged adjustment of money balances with rational expectations the low inflation equilibrium may be stable adding bond financing dual equilibria remain if the government fixes the real interest rate but a unique equilibrium is attained when the government sets a nominal anchor for the economy the existence of dual equilibria is thus a result of the government s operating rules

tightening up declining class mobility during russia s market transition this study analyzes intergenerational occupational mobility in late soviet and post soviet russia using data from six surveys belying claims that class differences did not matter in the soviet union the authors find that social origin did affect occupational opportunity during russia s soviet period but the transition from state socialism to a market economy tightened the link between origins and destinations men and women were equally constrained by their social origin even though they faced significantly different opportunity structures in both periods as the economic transformation took hold fewer russians experienced upward mobility and more were downwardly mobile political and economic transition not the demographic replacement of retiring cohorts by younger ones strengthened the association between origins and destinations career mobility during the 1990s took the form of a regression toward origins as workers who had the most upward mobility during the soviet era lost the most in the tr

between markets and politics organizational responses to reform in china in china s economic transition firms diversify assets through investments in the rapidly expanding service sector in response to organizational uncertainty using data from a random sample of firms in shanghai the author shows that there are two situations that cause this uncertainty economic instability where weak firms struggle to survive in the rapidly changing market system and administrative instability where large firms that were the most protected are now being forced to handle the responsibilities that were previously handled by the state the result is that both types of firm seek stability by spreading out risk through investment in low risk fast return markets revealing much about the economic reforms the overall strategy of a firm reflects at any given point in time important organizational facts any decision to fundamentally alter the deployment of internal resources represents a major structural change these kinds of changes do not occur often when they do they provide us wit

market transition industrialization and social mobility trends in postrevolution china1 this study examines trends in intergenerational class mobility in china by analyzing six comparable nationally representative surveys between 1996 and 2012 defying a simplistic unidirectional ac

escape dynamics in learning models this article illustrates and characterizes how adaptive learning can lead to recurrent large fluctuations learning models have typically focused on the convergence of beliefs towards an equilibrium however in stochastic environments there may be rare but recurrent episodes where shocks cause beliefs to escape from the equilibrium generating large movements in observed outcomes i characterize the escape dynamics by drawing on the theory of large deviations developing new results which make this theory directly applicable in a class of learning models the likelihood frequency and most likely direction of escapes are all characterized by a deterministic control problem i illustrate my results with two simple examples

clientelism as persuasion buying evidence from latin america in distributing clientelistic payoffs to citizens the best strategy a party machine can pursue we argue is to target citizens who are opinion leading epicenters in informal conversation networks this persuasion buying strategy carries the highest potential yield for the party because the payoff can create a social multiplier the effect of the clientelistic gift can be magnified via the conversion of multiple voters within a payoff recipient s personal networks using cross sectional survey data from 22 latin american countries and a panel survey from mexico we confirm that individuals who engage in frequent political persuasion and who are located in large political discussion networks are the most likely recipients of clientelistic payoffs we also show that a finding that is key to previous theories namely that loyal partisans are the most likely targets of clientelism is driven by omitted variable and endogeneity bias

impact of institutions on social network formation communist party membership and social network investment in china using the 2003 wave of china general social survey 2003cgss we study the influence of the communist party on individual s social networks in urban china and thereby present a case of socio political institutions being an important ingredient in social network formation we adopt a counterfactual framework and estimate the effect of communist party membership on social network investment as an average treatment effect we find the treatment to be significant

comparative social mobility revisited models of convergence and divergence in 16 countries this paper reanalyzes 3 stratum intergenerational mobility classifications assembled by hazelrigg and garnier for men in 16 countries in the 1960s and 1970s log linear and log multiplicative models are used to compare mobility regimes and to estimate effects of industrialization educational enrollment social democracy and income inequality on immobility and other parameters of the mobility process several models of mobility fit the data equally well so criteria of plausibility and parsimony are applied to choose one model of stratum specific immobility and another model of vertical mobility with uniform immobility we find substantial similarity in mobility and immobility across countries but the exogenous variables do explain systematic differences among countries cross national variations are complex because most of the exogenous variables have different effects on different parameters of the mobility regime relative to other factors industrialization and education have weaker effects on mobility regimes than has usually been supposed

determinants of income mobility and household poverty dynamics in south africa this article analyses household income mobility among africans in south africa s most populous province kwazulu natal between 1993 and 1998 compared to industrialised and most developing countries mobility has been quite high as might have been expected after the transition in south africa this finding is robust when measurement error is controlled for when disaggregating the sources of mobility it is found that demographic changes and employment changes account for most of the mobility observed which is related to rapidly shifting household boundaries and a very volatile labour market in an environment of high unemployment using a multivariate analysis it can be seen that transitory incomes play a large role four types of poverty traps are found associated with large initial household size poor initial education poor initial asset endowment and poor initial employment access that dominate the otherwise observed regression towards the mean

good luck or good policy an expectational theory of macro volatility switches abstract in an otherwise unique equilibrium model agents are segmented into a few informational islands according to the signal they receive about others expectations even if agents perfectly observe fundamentals rational exuberance equilibria rex can arise as they put weight on expectational signals to refine their forecasts constant gain adaptive learning can trigger jumps between the equilibrium where only fundamentals are weighted and a rex this determines regime switching in macro volatility despite unchanged monetary policy and time invariant distribution of exogenous shocks in this context a tight inflation targeting policy can lower expectational complementarity preventing rational exuberance although its effect is non monotone

market transition and the persistence of power the changing stratification system in urban china research on transitional socialist societies has explored trends in income inequality and issues concerning who gains and who loses during market reforms we find that income inequality in a major chinese city declined only slightly during the first decade of reform policies it then increased dramatically in the subsequent five years strategic position in the state bureaucracy continues to be an important determinant of income although connections to the market system are becoming alternate sources of advantage we interpret these findings in light of the historical and institutional context of urban china

real wage cyclicality in urban china abstract this paper investigates the cyclical behaviour of real wages in urban china we find wage pro cyclicality in the public sector and in small medium firms but not in the private sector and in big firms

adapting to radical change strategy and environment in piece rate adoption during china s transition adaptation to radical change is central to research in organization theory and some of the most dramatic examples of environmental change have occurred recently in transition economies such as china i take advantage of change during china s economic reform to study the relative importance of organizational and environmental factors in producing innovative managerial response i find that strategic choice predicted innovation in the early stages of reform but environmental factors increased in salience over time intrafirm support communist party connections and a market orientation produced innovation early in reform simple imitation of others was also salient in early years as reform progressed managers increasingly imitated other profitable firms and drew on their own experience my results inform an understanding of both the process by which innovation occurs and firm behavior in transition economies

behavioral learning equilibria we propose behavioral learning equilibria where boundedly rational agents learn to use a simple univariate linear forecasting rule with correctly specified unconditional mean and first order autocorrelation in the long run agents learn the best univariate linear forecasting rule without fully recognizing the more complex structure of the economy an important feature of behavioral learning equilibria is simplicity and parsimony which makes coordination of individual expectations on such an aggregate outcome more likely in a first application an asset pricing model driven by ar 1 ar 1 dividends a unique behavioral learning equilibrium exists characterized by high persistence and excess volatility and it is stable under learning in a second application the new keynesian phillips curve multiple equilibria coexist learning exhibits path dependence and inflation may switch between low and high persistence regimes

a theory of market transition from redistribution to markets in state socialism state socialist redistributive economies are characterized by the allocation and distribution of goods through central planning this paper develops a theory of market transition which argues that in reforming socialist economies the transition from redistributive to market coordination shifts sources of power and privilege to favor direct producers relative to redistributors the shit improves incentives for direct producers stimulates the growth of private markets and provides to entrepreneurs an alternative path for socioeconomic mobility a set of hypotheses test the market transition theory with householdand village level data

markets and income inequality in rural china political advantage in an expanding economy when market reform generates rapid growth in an agrarian subsistence economy changes in inequality may be due to economic growth and structural change rather than to the intrinsic features of markets the case of post mao china is examined using nationally representative survey data gathered in 1996 to address unresolved questions about findings from 1980s surveys well into reform s second decade political officeholding has a large net impact on household income comparable to that of operating a private enterprise contrary to findings based on earlier surveys and expectations about the impact of growth cadre household advantages are stable across levels and forms of economic expansion returns to entrepreneurship however decline sharply with the spread of wage employment future declines in relative returns to political position are therefore unlikely to occur due to the further spread of private household entrepreneurship and theories of change based on this mechanism appear untenable

the emergence of a market society changing mechanisms of stratification in china this article examines the effect of institutional change the shift from redistribution to markets in altering the mechanisms of stratification new institutionalists maintain that interests are emb

seigniorage and the case for national money in countries with high rates of inflation there is typically movement away from the use of the local currency the paper analyzes the costs and benefits of using a local currency with emphasis on the seigniorage foregone by using a foreign money even if it should be desirable for a country to fix its exchange rate it still loses seigniorage if it does not use its own money the case for using a foreign money then turns largely on the superior discipline imposed on domestic policymakers by removing their control over the money supply alternative methods of imposing discipline are discussed estimates of the amount of seigniorage raised by different governments are presented seigniorage amounts in some cases to about 10 percent of government revenue estimates are also presented of both the annual flow and one time stock costs of giving up use of domestic currencies and instead using the dollar the flow cost is typically about 1 percent of gnp and the stock cost is around 10 percent of gnp

social inequalities in reforming state socialism between redistribution and markets in china this article extends market transition theory to an analysis of inequality under the conditions of partial reform in china logit regression analysis indicates cadres officials have no greater odds than other households of being among the privileged or avoiding poverty entrepreneurs andformer team cadres however are advantaged despite the rise of a hybrid elite of entrepreneurs who are currently cadres that capitalizes on redistributive power to gain competitive advantage in the marketplace increases in income inequality are modest when market reform stimulates improved economic performance the poor appear to benefit and experience comparable improvements in household income as a result there is only a slight increase in inequality at least in the early stages of market reform the empirical analysis is based on survey data collected in rural china in 1985

does having a cadre parent pay evidence from the first job offers of chinese college graduates abstract we estimate the wage premium associated with having a cadre parent in china using a recent survey of college graduates carried out by the authors the wage premium of having a cadre parent is 15 and this premium cannot be explained by other observables such as college entrance exam scores quality of colleges and majors a full set of college human capital attributes and job characteristics these results suggest that the remaining premium could be the true wage premium of having a cadre parent

ownership organization and income inequality market transition in rural vietnam in transitional economies the scale of economic enterprise and the allocation of property rights shape social structures and influence income distribution in agrarian economies where labor intensive family enterprises dominate political officials income advantages decline rapidly relative to those of private entrepreneurs larger enterprises however provide greater income opportunities for officials especially when a government retains an ownership stake in the initial phases of reform this article replicates the findings from an earlier study of rural china using comparable survey data from vietnam we find that during the first two decades of rural market reform in vietnam and china the scale and ownership of firms differed radically small family enterprises dominated rural development in vietnam whereas china s development was dominated by larger firms initially established by rural governments consequently while cadre income advantages have kept pace with those of private entrepreneurs

learning large deviations and recurrent currency crises this article studies a version of obstfeld s journal of international economics 43 1997 61 77 escape clause model the model is calibrated to produce three rational expectations equilibria two of these equilibria are e stable and one is unstable dynamics are introduced by assuming that agents must learn about the government s decision rule it is assumed they do this using a stochastic approximation algorithm it turns out that as a certain parameter describing the sensitivity of beliefs to new information gets small the algorithm converges to a small noise diffusion process the dynamics of exchange rate changes are then characterized using large deviation techniques from freidlin and wentzell random perturbations of dynamical systems second edition berlin springer verlag 1998 these methods describe the sense in which the limiting distribution of exchange rate changes is approximated by a two state markov switching process where the two states correspond to the two e stable equilibria the model is calibrated to the exchange rate histories of argentina brazil and mexico currency crises in these countries resemble the predicted escape routes of the model a key feature of these escape routes is that expectations of a devaluation erupt suddenly without large contemporaneous shocks this is consistent with evidence showing that crises are often poorly anticipated by financial markets

learning and price volatility in duopoly models of resource depletion the aim of this paper is to provide a theoretical model that can account for price fluctuations in depletable resource markets we do so by introducing learning into a hotelling style duopoly model of optimal resource depletion before the depletable resource becomes scarce the self confirming equilibrium of the model mirrors noncooperative rational expectations equilibrium in that supply is high and price is low although learning does induce occasional upward price spikes that are followed by a long period of falling price once the depletable resource becomes scarce the dynamics of the market change significantly with the self confirming equilibrium mirroring the cooperative rather than noncooperative rational expectations equilibrium supply is low and price is high price spikes still occur but against a background of increasing prices when scarcity is sufficient then the market is permanently in a self confirming equilibrium that is equivalent to cooperative rational expectations equilibrium

getting paid wage arrears and stratification in russia1 wage arrears have played an important yet unappreciated role in the stratification of contemporary russian society delays in wage payments became rampant and persistent during the 1990s because of the particular structural institutional and policy context that accompanied russia s market reforms recent improvements in russia s economy have reduced but not eliminated wage arrears an innovative practice that has become institutionalized in some but not all postsocialist societies analyses of survey data collected in early 1998 confirm the independent stratifying role of arrears inequality in getting paid is socially structured in a different manner than inequality in contracted wages and the former proves equally or more decisive in shaping inequality in actual wages arrears occur with some regularity in other national and historical contexts this study of russia shows that where arrears are rampant researchers should incorporate them into conceptual and empirical models of earnings inequalit

getting personal networks and stratification in the russian labor market 1985 2001 the authors use employment histories from survey data to examine personal network use and stratification in the russian labor market from 1985 to 2001 institutional changes associated with the soviet collapse increased the use of networks and shaped their prevalence and benefits in theoretically coherent ways in russia networks positively affect job quality whether measured by occupation current earnings or wage arrears these findings relate to recent debates over whether job contacts provide advantages and how social capital relates to postsocialist inequalities involving gender communist party membership and education russia also exhibits a previously overlooked relationship between network use and locality type

self confirming equilibrium and the lucas critique we examine the role of off path superstitions in macro economics and show how a false belief about off path play is the key element underlying both the lucas critique and the game theoretic concept of self confirming equilibrium however the impact of false beliefs in these two cases is different in the lucas case a policy maker s incorrect beliefs about off path play can lead to the adoption of mistaken policy innovation however the consequences of such an innovation provide evidence that the belief that motivated them was wrong in contrast play may never escape an undesirable self confirming equilibrium as the action implied by the mistaken belief does not generate data that contradicts it escape from the self confirming equilibrium requires that players do a sufficient amount of experimentation with off path actions

the conquest of south american inflation we infer determinants of latin american hyperinflations and stabilizations by using the method of maximum likelihood to estimate a hidden markov model that assigns roles both to fundamentals in the form of government deficits that are financed by money creation and to destabilizing expectations dynamics that can occasionally divorce inflation from fundamentals levels and conditional volatilities of monetized deficits drove most hyperinflations and stabilizations with a notable exception in peru where a cosmetic reform of the type emphasized by marcet and nicolini occurred

what explains the great moderation in the u s a structural analysis this paper investigates what has caused output and inflation volatility to fall in the u s using a small scale structural model using bayesian techniques and rolling samples there are instabilities in the posterior of the parameters describing the private sector the policy rule and the variance of the shocks results are robust to the specification of the policy rule changes in the parameters describing the private sector are the largest but those of the policy rule and the covariance matrix of the shocks explain the changes most jel e52 e47 c53

fiscal policymaking and the central bank institutional constraint una vez mas new latin american evidence evidence on the degree to which central bank independence can constrain government budget deficits remains surprisingly scarce this paper finds empirical support for the importance of the central institutional constraint for a 14 country sample of latin american countries over 1990 2012 these results suggest that greater central bank autonomy has indeed helped reign in fiscal excesses in a region that has been plagued by inflationary deficit expansion for much of the post war period the ability to potentially discipline government policy adds to an independent central bank s inherent role in adding to the checks and balances essential to a well functioning democracy

learning hypothesis testing and rational expectations equilibrium abstract foster and young 2003 provide a model of learning by hypothesis testing that spends almost all of the time approximating nash equilibria of a repeated game here i extend this learning model to a macroeconomic setting where agents decisions are informed by hypotheses they hold regarding the economy they periodically test these hypotheses against observed data and replace them if they fail under certain conditions agents who learn in this way spend a large fraction of the time approximating rational expectations equilibria

when parties meet voters assessing political linkages through partisan networks and distributive expectations in argentina and chile this article provides a new comparative methodology for the study of party voter linkages from the perspective of voters where the critical question that distinguishes clientelistic from programmatic parties is access to publicly provided benefits in the former case partisan networks mediate access to goods in the latter beneficiaries are defined by policy and access is independent from partisan distribution networks we show that these different access mechanisms shape voters distributive expectations and the nature of their linkages to political parties by developing a unique methodology to measure party networks we test it using original survey data from argentina and chile and show variation both across and within countries on party voter linkages based on differential access to benefits and parties organizational capacity

property rights and stratification in socialist redistributive economies in socialist economies work organizations differ widely in the compensation they provide employees despite the absence of key product and labor market processes thought to ex plain such inequalities in market economies existing theories of stratification in socialist economies focus on the power and privilege of elites but inequalities among organizations are not created by political particularism or elite power in this paper i sketch elements of an institutional theory of stratification anchored in a conception of property rights the right to derive income from productive assets two aspects of property rights guide the analysis 1 the dispersion of property rights across a hierarchy of governmentjurisdictions and 2 the exercise of these rights by government jurisdictions as they extract revenues primarily through taxation extraction of revenues from a work organization varies with the budgetary resources of a government jurisdiction and the dependence of that jurisdiction on the out puts of the organization variation in revenue extraction in turn creates inequalities among work organizations in their abilities to provide benefits to employees an analysis of survey data on the provision of housing and benefits by work organizations in the large industrial city of tianjin china provides provisional support for these ideas s tudents of communist states have had little reason to dispute lenski s 1966 claim that the distribution of rewards in a society is a func tion of the distribution of power p 63 as ex emplified in szelenyi s wedding of elite theory to institutional economics this idea has been de veloped primarily in terms of the power of class es or occupational groups szelenyi 1978 be gan with the observation that planned economies operate according to redistributive rather than market principles however the process of re

the first shall be last entrepreneurship and communist cadres in the transition from socialism this article reviews the sociological literature on the transition from socialism to capitalism it distinguishes between the erosion and transition phases and between traditional and corporate segments in the emerging private sector panel survey data from hungary show that during the transition ex communist cadres maintain their advantageous position and do especially well in the more dynamic corporate segment they are successful because human capital is important in both capitalism and socialism and because the cadres are able to convert past political power to economic advantage contrary to the findings of studies based only on agriculture the transition increases income inequalities

learning adaptive expectations and technology shocks this study explores the macroeconomic implications of adaptive expectations in a standard growth model we show that the self confirming equilibrium under adaptive expectations is the same as the steady state rational expectations equilibrium for all admissible parameter values but that dynamics around the steady state are substantially different between the two equilibria the differences are driven mainly by the dampened wealth effect and the strengthened intertemporal substitution effect not by escapes emphasised by williams 2003 consequently adaptive expectations can be an important source of frictions that amplify and propagate technology shocks and seem promising for generating plausible labour market dynamics

adaptive behavior and economic theory the relationship between psychological and economic views of behavior once a subject of heavy dispute is now understood in a very similar way by practitioners of both these disciplines and of our sister social sciences in general terms we view or model an individual as a collection of decision rules rules that dictate the action to be taken in given situations and a set of preferences used to evaluate the outcomes arising from particular situation action combinations these decision rules are continuously under review and revision new decision rules are tried and tested against experience and rules that produce desirable outcomes supplant those that do not i use the term adaptive to refer to this trial anderror process through which our modes of behavior are determined if one is interested in modeling particular decisions in any very explicit way it is obviously necessary to think about rather narrow aspects of an individual s entire set of decision rules his or her personality experimental psychology has traditionally focused on the adaptive process by which decision rules are replaced by others in this tradition the influence of the subject s or as an economist says the agent s preferences this essay uses a series of examples to illustrate the use of rationality and adaptation in economic theory it is argued that these hypotheses are complementary and that stability theories based on adaptive behavior may help to narrow the class of empirically interesting equilibria in certain economic models an experiment is proposed to test this idea

does local social capital deter labour migration evidence from rural china abstractthis article empirically investigates the effect of local social capital on job related migration in rural china a household s social ties in the region of origin which we refer to as local social capital may deter migration because local social capital is location specific and an individual cannot benefit from it if s he migrates in view of chinese gift giving culture we use household expenses on wedding gifts for family members outside household relatives and friends as a proxy for local social networks based on the data from the china health and nutrition survey we find that in rural china local social networks have a significantly negative effect on migration the iv results suggest that a 10 increase in wedding gifts expenses results in roughly a 1 1 percentage points decrease in migration probability

exchange structures in transition lending and trade relations in chinese business groups the networks of interfirm relations that developed in business groups during economic transition are central to china s reform and are becoming an important part of the country s emergent economic structure using a recent and original data set that includes direct observations of economic choices made by firms the process by which these interfirm lending and trade ties emerged and evolved in the early stages of reform is explored initially information from sources external to the network dominated the formation and direction of exchange relations firms turned to their prior connections took advantage of market position and drew on bureaucratic power to develop alliances over time internal influences gained importance and managers increasingly drew on internal nontrade relations and other indicators inside the business group to identify lending and trade partners the results demonstrate the central but changing role that social relations and environmental cues played in the creation of economic structure during china s transition this study also contributes to an understanding of the processes of organizational adaptation to a major economic transition and interfirm alliance formation more generally the findings reveal that firms select exchange partners of known reputation and solicit relations that reduce uncertainty even when there is a cost involved

recurrent hyperinflations and learning we use a model of boundedly rational learning to account for the observations of recurrent hyperinflations in the 1980 s in a standard monetary model we replace the assumption of full rational expectations by a formal definition of quasi rational learning the model under learning matches some crucial stylized facts observed during the recurrent hyperinflations experienced by several countries in the 1980 s remarkably well we argue that despite being a small departure from rational expectations quasi rational learning does not preclude falsifiability of the model it does not violate reasonable rationality requirements and it can be used for policy evaluation

has u s monetary policy changed evidence from drifting coefficients and real time data despite the large amount of empirical research on monetary policy rules there is surprisingly little consensus on the nature or even the existence of changes in the conduct of u s monetary policy three issues appear central to this disagreement 1 the specific type of changes in the policy coefficients 2 the treatment of heteroskedasticity and 3 the real time nature of the data used this paper addresses these issues in the context of forwardlooking taylor rules with drifting coefficients the estimation is based on real time data and accounts for the presence of heteroskedasticity in the policy shock the findings suggest important but gradual changes in the rule coefficients not adequately captured by the usual split sample estimation in contrast to orphanides 2002 2003 i find that the fed s response to the real time forecast of inflation was weak in the second half of the 1970s perhaps not satisfying taylor s principle as suggested by clarida gali and gertler 2000 however the response to inflation was strong before 1973 and gradually regained strength from the early 1980s onward moreover as in orphanides 2003 the fed s response to real activity fell substantially and lastingly during the 1970s

indeterminacy of equilibria in a hyperinflationary world experimental evidence the authors design and study an olg experimental economy where the government finances a fixed real deficit through seigniorage the economy has continua of nonstationary rational expectations equilibria and two stationary rational expectations equilibria the authors do not observe nonstationary rational expectations paths observed paths tend to converge close to or somewhat below the low inflation stationary state the adaptive learning hypothesis is consistent with the data in selecting the low inflation stationary state rational expectations equilibrium as a long run stationary equilibrium nevertheless simple adaptive learning models do not capture the market uncertainty or the biases observed in the data copyright 1993 by the econometric society

revolution reform and status inheritance urban china 1949 1996 do regime change and market reform disrupt patterns of intergenerational mobility china s political trajectory is distinctive from that of other communist regimes in two ways during its first three decades the regime enforced unusually restrictive barriers to elite status inheritance and during the subsequent market transition unlike most of its counterparts the communist party survived intact data from a multigeneration survey suggest that despite their obvious exclusion from the party and related administrative careers in the mao era certain prerevolution elites transmitted one type of elite status to their offspring to a surprising degree party elites in contrast were hit hard by radical maoism but recovered quickly afterward and their offspring inherited elite status at much higher rates

elite opportunity in transitional economies command economies gave communist era elites administrative control and material privilege but severely restricted money income and private wealth markets and privatization have injected new value into public assets and create unprecedented opportunities for elite insiders these opportunities depend on the extent of regime change and barriers to asset appropriation regime change varies from the survival of the entire party hierarchy to its rapid collapse and defeat in competitive elections barriers to asset appropriation vary with the extent pace and form of privatization and the concentration and liquidity of assets different combinations of such circumstances jointly affect the extent to which prior elites obtain ownership or control of privatized assets use political office to extract larger incomes move into salaried elite occupations or fall out of the elite altogether regime change and barriers to asset appropriation affect change at the national level but outcomes vary across economic sectors because of characteristics of organizations elite positions and assets this elementary theory serves to integrate varied findings from recent research on central europe china and russia and yields predictions for other regions

long run growth uncertainty observed macroeconomic forecasts display a positive correlation between expectations of long run growth of endogenous variables e g output and cyclical activity existing business cycle models appear inconsistent with the evidence this paper presents a model of the business cycle in which households have imperfect knowledge of long run growth rate of endogenous variables and continually learn about these growth rates the model features comovement and mutual influence between households growth expectations and market outcomes it can replicate the evidence on growth forecasts and suggests that optimism and pessimism about long run growth rates is a crucial ingredient in understanding business cycle fluctuations

speculative hyperinflations and currency substitution abstract we propose a rational expectations framework for understanding speculative hyperinflations that end in response to orthodox stabilization programs motivated by a strong degree of hysteresis in the stock of real balances after the end of hyperinflations we provide a cash and credit model in which the money demand exhibits persistence because individuals can establish long lasting credit relationships we use the model to show that if hysteresis in real balances is possible then a fiscal monetary reform that successfully stops a speculative hyperinflation may fail to prevent it we argue that speculative hyperinflationary equilibria are consistent with some key stylized facts observed in extreme hyperinflations

the spread of sharecropping in tuscany the political economy of transaction costs land tenure is central to many agricultural transformations the author examines one of these transformations the spread of sharecropping in late medieval and early modern tuscany previous research suggested that sharecropping spread as agricultural relations were refeudalized in contrast the author s analyses of fixed term and share term leasing sharecropping show that landlords used sharecropping when it lowered their overall costs of labor supervision and land management however to explain the spread of sharecropping the florentine political economy which created particular patterns of land management costs and labor supervision costs must also be considered florence was a well developed center for urban manufacturing landlords were frequently urban merchants and they resided in florence these factors were crucial in shaping agricultural relations landlords use of sharecropping to reduce the overall costs of land management and labor supervision increased as the distance from florence the site of landlords principal activities increased as the size of farms increased and when crops had high costs of labor supervision and land management thus the use of sharecropping to lower costs associated with agricultural production must be considered in the context of the tuscan political economy

bubble weak and strong hyperinflation theory and empirical evidence the monthly continuous inflation rate that maximizes the inflation tax revenue varies widely from 18 3 to 143 according to semi elasticity estimates for the german hyperinflation made by several authors cagan 1956 barro 1970 frenkel 1977 sargent 1977 goodfriend 1982 burmeister and wall 1987 christiano 1987 casella 1989 taylor 1991 engsted 1993 imrohoroglu 1993 michael et al 1994 those estimates lead one to conclude that during hyperinflation the german government could have obtained more tax revenue with lower inflation rates

disinflations in a model of imperfectly anchored expectations abstract we study disinflations under imperfect credibility of the central bank we propose a framework to model imperfectly credible announcements and use it to study the distribution of the output cost for a given disinflation imperfect credibility is modeled as the extent to which agents rely on adaptive learning to form expectations lower credibility increases the mean variance and skewness of the distribution of the sacrifice ratio when credibility is low disinflations become very costly for adverse realizations of the shocks but an opportunistic disinflation a disinflation implemented after a period of below trend inflation can significantly lower the sacrifice ratio with simulated data we reinterpret the reduced form evidence in sacrifice ratio regressions coefficient estimates from these regressions can be misleading for policymakers considering the cost of disinflation