the determinants of realignment expectations under the ems some empirical regularities abstract the stability of the ems depends crucially on realignment expectations of the market participants in this paper we discuss how to measure such expectations and how to relate them to economic fundamentals central bank reputation and institutional arrangements of the ems we find the following empirical regularities for ff dm and il dm exchange rates 1 1 expected devaluations are positively related to the current exchange rate deviation from the central parity 2 2 expected devaluations are negatively related to the length of time since last realignment in the short and medium run 3 3 the basle nyborg agreements seem to have a stabilizing effect for both currencies examined albeit through different channels

skill differentiation and wage disparity in a decentralized matching model of north south trade this paper develops a north south trade model in which the south produces food and the north produces both food and a high tech good food production is undertaken by unskilled workers while the high tech product is made only by horizontally differentiated skilled workers due to the possibility of a peergroup effect we allow the unskilled workers in the north to be equally or more productive than in the south horizontal matching of skilled workers is generally imperfect and the skilled wages are determined by a symmetric nash bargain we characterize two different types of equilibrium a closed economy equilibrium without trade and a free trade equilibrium without labor mobility we then extend the benchmark framework to consider the presence of transport costs in all cases with trade the equilibrium properties of goods pricing the volume of trade and wage disparities are examined

real exchange rate dynamics with nominal parities structural change and overshooting abstract the relationship between structural changes that require a modification of the steady state level of the real exchange rate is examined in terms of a model of staggered prices and real wealth effects although wealth effects are necessary for overshooting it is shown that their actual values are of no particular relevance in fact overshooting is shown to be more likely the smaller is the real wealth effect in the demand for tradables a key and counterintuitive result is that overshooting is more likely the higher is the frequency of price changes

the strategic implications of scale in choice based conjoint analysis choice based conjoint cbc studies have begun to rely on simulators to forecast equilibrium prices for pricing strategic product positioning and patent copyright valuations whereas cbc research

are estimates of earnings inequality sensitive to measurement choices a case study of canada in the 1980s while it is necessary that researchers make choices in order to estimate inequality the reasons for the measurement choices and their impact on inequality estimates have not been widely assessed this paper uses canadian data from the 1980s to analyse whether inequality estimates are sensitive to common measurement choices seemingly minor technical choices about the treatment of outlying observations such as the use of top income coded data exclusion of very high and low observations and differences among data sets in the capture of very high observations affect estimates of inequality further the impact of the treatment of outlying observations on inequality estimates are at least as large as the impact of measurement choices of a conceptual nature such as the income definition and population selection the sensitivity of inequality estimates to measurement choices which often remain invisible affect inferences about the relative degree of inequality at a given point in time among countries and

exchange rate based stabilization imperfect competition and supply side effects abstract this paper studies exchange rate based stabilization programs in the context of a dynamic general equilibrium model for a small open economy that incorporates imperfect competition a backward looking wage setting and an endogenous labor supply in contrast to previous results the analysis shows that a permanent disinflation leads to a sustained expansion in the domestic sector and a slow inflation convergence this study also shows that a temporary stabilization replicates a boom recession cycle these results suggest that a backward looking wage setting and an endogenous labor supply are the key ingredients for reproducing the stylized facts of exchange rate based stabilization

cournot competition and spatial agglomeration revisited abstract in a letter previously published in this journal pal economics letters 60 1998 49 show that firms locate equidistant from each other in a circular city however we show that the following location pattern is also an equilibrium outcome firms agglomerate at two points in a circular city

sophisticated entry in a model of spatial competition we analyze free entry equilibrium in a model of spatial competition in which locations of established firms are fixed and entrants profit expectations are rational our most interesting results concern large economies economies in which the number of firms is arbitrarily large when the average cost function is u shaped free entry equilibrium is unique socially optimal and characterized by zero profit in contract when there are no diseconomies of scale even large economies are stubbornly imperfect firms can earn substantial pure profit and free entry equilibrium is neither unique nor socially optimal

does lumpiness matter in an open economy studying international economics with regional data abstract this paper addresses the empirical question whether the regional distribution of production factors within countries is ever so uneven that it triggers specialization of production that makes regions produce different sets of goods at different factor prices due to the different welfare effects of trade policy in a country with regional specialization this is an important question in addition it is a question about the legitimacy of treating a country as a relatively homogenous unit in answering these questions i implement the concept of lumpiness as introduced by courant and deardorff j polit econ 100 1992 198 i find that lumpiness or an uneven regional distribution of production factors that induces intranational specialization and different regional factor prices is not an issue for japan the united kingdom and maybe not even for india

economic welfare in delivered pricing duopoly bertrand and cournot abstract we investigate two delivered pricing models we find that in the bertrand cournot model the equilibrium distance between two firms locations is too large small for maximum social welfare while it is too small for maximum consumer surplus in both models

two decades of income inequality in britain the role of wages household earnings and redistribution we study earnings and income inequality in britain over the past two decades including the period of relatively inclusive growth from 1997 to 2004 and the great recession we focus on the middle 90 where trends have contrasted strongly with the new inequality at the very top household earnings inequality has risen driven by male earnings although a catch up of female earnings did hold down individual earnings inequality and reduce within household inequality nevertheless net household income inequality fell due to deliberate increases in redistribution the tax and transfer system s insurance role during the great recession falling household worklessness and rising pensioner incomes

the principle of minimum differentiation holds under sufficient heterogeneity the so called principle of minimum differentiation stated by hotelling has been challenged by many authors this paper restores the principle by showing that n firms locate at the center of the market and charge prices higher than the marginal cost of production when heterogeneity in consumers tastes is large enough

exchange rate based stabilizations a literature review the exchange rate based stabilizations erbss that have been undertaken in chronic inflation countries have generated a controversial body of literature regarding the effects of disinflation programs especially those on real consumption and output this survey provides an extensive overview of the literature on erbs the paper covers various empirical studies that have attempted to document the macroeconomic regularities associated with erbs discussing both their strengths and their weaknesses it analyzes diverse theoretical models that have been put forward to replicate the business cycles associated with erbs and sheds light on which models perform better using real data the results suggest that durables incorporated weak credibility and sticky price model proves to be most compatible with the empirical regularities observed in the course of erbs

quantity competition in a spatial model the authors analyze a duopoly model where firms first choose locations on a line segment and then choose quantities in the second stage pure strategy quantity equilibria fail to exist for locations close together for low transport costs near agglomeration occurs and the firms choose locations where pure strategy quantity equilibria exist as transport costs rise firms become less direct competitors as they move away from the center of the market coauthors are james f klein eytan sheshinski and steven m slutsky we analyse a duopoly model where firms first choose locations on a line segment and then choose quantities in the second stage pure strategy quantity equilibria fail to exist for locations close together for low transport costs near agglomeration occurs and the firms choose locations where pure strategy quantity equilibria exist as transport costs rise firms become less direct competitors as they move away from the centre of the market coauthors are james f klein eytan sheshinski and stephen m slutsky

a monetary approach to the crawling peg system theory and evidence this paper develops and estimates a model of the joint determination of the exchange rate international reserves and the rate of inflation under a crawling peg system the framework presented which is an extension of previous work on the monetary approach generates short run deviations from purchasing power parity that occur simultaneously with movements in both international reserves and the exchange rate the model is estimated by full information maximum likelihood on the basis of quarterly data for brazil

exchange rate based inflation stabilization the initial real effects of credible plans abstract this paper studies the initial effects of exchange rate based stabilization programs within a dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy in which inflation acts as a tax on intermediate transactions and capital accumulation is subject to convex adjustment costs and gestation lags the model replicates the typical pattern of slow inflation convergence sustained real exchange rate appreciation trade balance deterioration and expansion in domestic spending followed by a deflationary slowdown without resorting to sticky prices imperfect credibility or adaptive expectations calibrated versions of the model are compared with the initial effects of the argentine convertibility plan of april 1991

wage inequality in the labour years this paper studies changes in labour market inequality in the uk with particular reference to what happened to wage inequality during the years of labour government the analysis uses micro data through time to document what happened to overall wage inequality as well as upper and lower tail wage inequality relative to what went before simple supply and demand models of changing wage differentials by education group are used so as to consider the drivers of relative demand shifts in favour of the more educated that underpin rising wage inequality the changing role of labour market institutions is also discussed and in particular the decline of unionization and the importance of the introduction of the national minimum wage in 1999 for the evolution of lower tail wage inequality

real wages and unemployment in the big squeeze uk real wage growth has slowed down stagnated and recently turned sharply negative we document the nature of real wage changes across the wage distribution over the last three decades showing that recent patterns represent a distinct break of trend that pre dates the onset of recession we explore whether unemployment has become a stronger moderating influence on real wage growth and report using aggregate economy wide and regional panel data that real wage unemployment sensitivities have become stronger in the period from 2003 onwards finally we offer some assessment of possible drivers of this increased sensitivity of real wages to unemployment

mind the gap please the changing nature of entry jobs in britain we examine wages in jobs taken by those out of work entry jobs and the characteristics of the individuals who fill them there are large entry wage gaps relative to other jobs more importantly real entry wages have fallen by around 20 log points relative to all other jobs since 1979 one quarter of this decline is accounted for by differences in individual and job characteristics and around 40 from an unexplained fall in the position of entry jobs in the wage distribution that entry wages differ from the stock of all wages should be incorporated into labour supply modelling

existence and computation of mixed strategy nash equilibrium for 3 firms location problem location problems of firms on a closed interval were introduced by hotelling 3 and later investigated by eaton lipsey 2 firms sell a homogeneous product at a fixed price customers distributed along the interval buy one unit each from the firm nearest to them and firms aim to maximize the number of their customers it is well known that where the customers are evenly distributed along the interval and the number of firms is other than 3 the location problem has a pure strategy nash equilibrium see 2 the case of 3 firms is peculiar in that no pure strategy nash equilibrium exists for in any situation one of the extreme firms not located between the other two can increase its revenue by either moving towards or away from the other two firms the existence of mixed strategies is not obvious because the payoff functions are discontinuous whenever two or more firms are located at the same point in a recent paper dasgupta and maskin 1 investigate a class of games all derived from economic problems and all with some discontinuities in their payoff functions they demonstrate that the discontinuities in the payoff functions do not prevent the existence of mixed strategies nash equilibria in the games investigated in particular location problems of the type described earlier have such weak discontinuities and hence possess a mixed strategy nash equilibrium although their proof is constructive offering a method of approaching these equilibria as a limit of equilibria of finite games the equations involved very quickly become unmanageable in this note we compute a mixed strategy nash equilibrium for the 3 firms location problem let the customers be evenly distributed along 0 1 then a mixed strategy is a probability measure over 0 1 the symmetry of the problem suggests that the solution will be doubly symmetric in that all firms choose the same mixed strategy and that this strategy is symmetric around symmetric locations are given the same probabilities dasgupta and maskin confine their analysis to doubly symmetric solutions and prove that the strategies in any doubly symmetric equilibrium are atomless given the symmetric nature of the game and following the analysis of dasgupta and maskin we shall confine ourselves here to such doubly sym

the macroeconomics of populism in latin america by populism this paper refers to an economic approach that emphasizes growth and income redistribution and deemphasizes the risks of inflation and deficit finance external constraints and the reaction of economic agents to aggressive nonmarket policies it analyzes two instances of populism chile under allende and peru under garcia these experiences are described in detail not as a righteous assertion of conservative economics but as a warning that populist policies ultimately fail and always at a frightening cost to the groups they were supposed to benefit this paper explores the question of whether some variant of populist policies could succeed it suggests that populist policies could succeed if they stayed clear of foreign exchange constraints emphasized reactivation for a brief initial period and then shifted to growth policies most important expansionary policies must reflect awareness of capacity constraints and must rely for financing on an extremely orthodox fiscal policy and rigorous tax adminsitration the paper concludes by warning that imf style policies unconcerned with growth of social progress may establish financial stability in the short run but inevitably open the door to yet another round of destructive reaction in the form of populist policies

what has 20 years of public private pay gap literature told us eastern european transitioning vs developed economies this paper surveys the literature on public private sector pay differentials based on 20 years of research in transitioning countries of eastern europe ee and compares the results with estimates obtained from developed market economies the majority of empirical studies from ee economies found evidence of public sector pay penalties during the period of economic transition from a communist to market based economy in developed economies however the average differential is usually around zero or positive the public sector pay inequality reducing effect relative to the private sector is greater in transitioning economies than in developed economies nevertheless there is evidence that the sign of the public sector pay gap as well as the relative public sector pay distribution change with the progress of economic transition towards those usually observed in developed economies different pay setting arrangements between private and public sectors and competition for workers seem to be major arguments for the existence of systematic pay differences between the two sectors

sticky inflation and the real effects of exchange rate based stabilization abstract this paper tests the empirical validity of the forward looking pricing hypothesis using data from four exchange rate based stabilization erbs episodes it finds that backward looking components of inflation play an important role in inflation dynamics in some cases exceeding the importance of forward looking components the paper then shows that the presence of empirically relevant degrees of inflation stickiness increases the size of the real exchange rate appreciation predicted by an imperfect credibility model of erbs the 12 real appreciation predicted by the sticky inflation model is a 70 improvement over the predictions of the fully forward looking pricing setup but as in other erbs models still falls short of matching the real appreciations observed in practice

strict dollarization and economic performance an empirical investigation in this paper we analyze the macroeconomic record of strictly dollarized economies in particular we investigate whether dollarized countries have historically exhibited faster growth and lower volatility than countries with a domestic currency we analyze this issue by using a treatment regression analysis that estimates jointly the probability of being a dollarized country and outcome equations our analysis indicates that the probability of being a dollarized country depends on regional geographical political and structural variables our results also suggest that gdp per capita growth has not been statistically different in dollarized and in non dollarized countries we also find that volatility has been significantly higher in dollarized than in non dollarized economies these results are robust to the estimation technique and to the sample used

hotelling s spatial competition as a model of sales abstract hotelling s spatial competition model is used to explain the existence of sales it is shown that 1 an equilibrium in randomized strategies exists when a pure strategy equilibrium fails to exist 2 with more dissimilarity among brands prices are chosen from a wider interval

skill distribution and income disparity in a north south trade model what are the impacts of free trade agreement on the welfare of different types of workers in a developed country what is the impact of free trade on a developed country s income disparity what is the effect of free trade on the skill distribution of a developed country the objective of this paper is to address the above questions in a two sector general equilibrium north south trade model in which both countries produce one final good and one high tech intermediate input the final good is produced with the use of a high tech intermediate input and unskilled workers horizontally differentiated skilled workers produce the high tech intermediate input each country is populated by a continuum of unskilled workers with differential potential ability workers in the north and south can acquire skills by investment in training or education thus skill distri bution in the north and south is determined endogenously in the model through a self selection process i characterize two different types of equilibria a closed economy equilibrium without trade and a free trade equilibrium then i investigate the impact of free trade in the presence of training costs on the skill distribution within each

inequality income growth and mobility the basic facts during the 1950s and 1960s mean wages in the united states grew rapidly and the dispersion around this growing mean changed very litde starting in the 1970s and continuing into the 1980s and 1990s these patterns were reversed mean wages grew slowly and inequality increased rapidly these changes in labor markets were reflected in changes in the distribution of family income the mean of the distribution of family income did increase after 1973 in spite of the near constancy of mean real wages as family members increased the number of hours they worked however the increase in inequality of wages was mirrored by an increase in the dispersion of family income a large descriptive literature has documented the rise in inequality while a smaller behavioral literature has sought to delineate the causes of this rise these changes in the distribution of family income a fected rates of poverty directly during the 1950s and 1960s temporary increases in poverty during recessions were more than offset by declines in poverty during economic expansions as long as the poor gained along with everyone else fi om the secular growth in the mean one could be confident that poverty rates would ratchet down this is exactly what happened as poverty rates fell from 22 4 percent in 1959 to 11 1 percent in 1973

stabilization dynamics and backward looking contracts abstract exchange rate based stabilizations often result in an initial output expansion one explanation for this phenomenon has been that in the presence of inflation inertia a reduction in the nominal interest rate causes the domestic real interest rate to fall thus increasing aggregate demand this paper reexamines this issue in the context of an intertemporal optimizing model in contrast to previous results the analysis shows that if the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is smaller than the elasticity of substitution between traded and home goods a permanent reduction in the rate of devaluation leads to a fall in aggregate demand

education policies equity efficiency and voting equilibrium this paper investigates the effects of two specific forms of intelvention in the market for education an ability test for admission to university and a subsidy to tuition fees financed through general taxation both these measures enhance equality of opportunity but their equity and efficiency effects are ambiguous this ambiguity is reflected in the political economy equilibrium which would emerge as the result of voting on the level of the ability test and of the subsidy

a critical evaluation of exchange rate policy in turkey abstract this paper reviews and critically evaluates the exchange rate policy followed in turkey in the post 1980 period during which a far reaching program of liberalization has been launched we conclude that the new exchange rate policy has been essential for turkey s regaining its creditworthiness furthermore it has positively contributed to growth of output and exports and to expansion of tradables production relative to nontradables persistence of inflation and weakness of private investment in tradables overshadow the successes recorded in other areas and cast doubt over the sustainability of turkey s outward orientation we argue that the root cause of these problems has been inconsistencies between overall economic policies rather than the exchange rate policy itself we compare the period of real appreciations since late 1998 with the earlier period of real depreciations and draw policy implications

credibility and the dynamics of disinflation in open economies a note on the southern cone experiments abstract when people lack confidence in the ability of politicians to carry out a newly announced disinflationary policy disinflation becomes more difficult to achieve numerous writers have emphasized the importance of policy consistency for establishing credibility this essay suggests in addition that policies with a quicker disinflationary impact become more credible sooner and thus have a better chance of succeeding with that proposition in mind the objective is to examine and compare the initial impacts of alternative disinflationary strategies in an open economy with capital mobility using evidence from the southern cone experience with preannounced exchange rates for illustrative purposes

crawling peg inflation hedges and exchange rate dynamics this paper stresses the effects of currency substitution and speculation on inflation hedges on the relative price of home goods in the two sector general equilibrium portfolio balance model examining the overshooting hypothesis of exchange rates in association with the overshooting phenomenon of price of inflation hedges it has shown that exchange rate undershooting is plausible with the significant overshooting of the price of inflation hedges when domestic residents hold only domestic money and inflation hedges however the impact of currency substitution is strong enough to lead to exchange rate overshooting if the domestic residents have access to foreign currency

when failure becomes success class and the debate over stabilization and adjustment abstract this article criticizes the current debate over stabilization and adjustment and develops an alternative class analytic approach first the respective theories and policy recommendations of neoclassical and structuralist economist are analyzed then the article considers the recent experiences of argentina brazil and peru where orthodox and heterodox policies have been attempted and subsequently declared failures finally it is shown that those failures with respect to employment inflation and the balance of payments become successes to the extent that they involve increasing exploitation and otherwise strengthening the class aspects of capitalism

discrete choice and variable returns to scale in previous studies of the probabilistic theory of qualitative choice e g marschak 1960 and mcfadden 1974 it has been assumed that an individual chooses among various alternatives with their utility levels independent of the number of individuals who choose each alternative there are however many examples in which the utility of a choice depends on the number of individuals who make the same choice for instance the utility of a given spatial choice may depend upon the number of others who choose neighboring locations neighborhood utility may decrease crowding or it may increase agglomerative economies with population size a second example is the automobile traveler s choice of routes the benefit of one route choice over another due to congestion depends on the number of drivers who choose the same route both of the examples suggested above deal with spatial choices of a particular kind but there are even examples from the more traditional macroeconomic theory one such example is of a product produced under variable returns to scale by a number of different sellers the price that each seller charges will depend upon the number of his customers if a buyer must choose to purchase from only one seller the price paid and thus utility will depend upon the total number of buyers choosing the same seller in all of the examples cited a reasonable model of choice is one that postulates uncertainty about the actual utility of each alternative the point of view is that a chooser s notional utility about each choice is a random variable in this case it is not certain which alternative will be chosen but the chosen alternative is the one with the greatest perceived utility it follows therefore that the probability that a given alternative is chosen is the probability that the utility perceived to be associated with it is larger than the utility perceived to be associated with any other alternative

the capital inflows problem revisited a stylized model of southern cone disinflation in the late 1970s countries in latin america s southern cone initiated attempts to lower domestic inflation rates through the progressive reduction of a preannounced rate of exchange rate devaluation the stabilization programs gave rise to massive capital inflows real exchange rate appreciation and current account deficits this paper develops a stylized intertemporal framework in which the effects of a credible preannounced disinflation scheme can be studied it is shown that even when agents have perfect foresight and markets clear continuously the capital inflows phenomenon and the associated real appreciation may result while unanticipated permanent inflation changes are neutral in the paper anticipated inflation is neutral only in exceptional circumstances a preannounced disinflation operates by altering the path of an expenditure based real domestic interest rate that depends on expected changes in the prices of liquidity services and nontradable consumption goods

taxes and agglomeration economies how are they related to nonprofit firm location author affiliation teresa d harrison department of economics drexel university 3141 chestnut street philadelphia pa 19104 usa tharrison drexel edu1 introductionnonprofits are an ever increasing component of the u s economy from 1997 2001 employment growth in the nonprofit sector averaged 2 5 outpacing both the business 1 8 and the government sectors 1 6 moore 2004 much of this growth stems from new nonprofits yet few studies have investigated possible determinants of nonprofit entry and location decisions most of these studies focus on demand side factors wolch and geiger 1983 downes and greenstein 1996 bielefeld murdoch and waddell 1997 for example downes and greenstein 1996 focus on demographic and religious characteristics of the surrounding community and its relation to private school location in this paper i use firm level data and focus on potentially important supply side variables tax rates and agglomeration economies most nonprofits are exempt from corporate sales and property taxes hansmann 1987 and gulley and santerre 1993 find evidence that higher corporate property and sales taxes are positively related to nonprofit market share however market share measures obfuscate the dynamics of the industry in terms of entry and exit rates if market share for nonprofits increases in response to higher tax rates this could be because new nonprofits are entering or because for profits are leaving the industry identifying these two cases is impossible with market share data using nonprofit tax return data i examine the relation between these tax exemptions and state county location decisions of new nonprofits to my knowledge this is the first paper to study these interactions at the individual firm level nonprofits also receive tax favored status due to the individual tax deduction on charitable contributions gentry and penrod 1998 employees of and donors to the nonprofits will be affected by the individual tax rates this in turn alters the costs to the nonprofit of location in a high or low tax area unlike previous studies i therefore investigate the relation between individual marginal tax rates and nonprofit location another potential supply side determinant of firm location decisions is the existing firm concentration in the area the potential economies of scale generated by proximity to other firms have been extensively examined in for profit industries 1 previous studies have generally found a positive relation between agglomeration and location carlton 1983 bartik 1985 woodward 1992 gius and frese 2002 rosenthal and strange 2003 to my knowledge bielefeld et al 2004 is the only study that examines nonprofit agglomeration finding evidence of agglomeration in dallas texas this warrants additional examination because nonprofit output is generally service driven and less mobile thus agglomeration implies greater direct competition making market saturation a larger issue in the nonprofit market using a nationwide dataset i examine how location and existing firm concentration are related and explore the potential presence of market saturation i also investigate possible differences between inter and intra industry agglomeration my results provide new insight into nonprofit firm behavior in most cases higher tax rates are associated with new firm location but the results for corporate and property taxes vary across the sample years i find that individual tax rates are an important consideration for nonprofits and are positively correlated to location my analysis also contributes to the literature by examining how the sensitivity to tax rates varies according to the sources of revenues for the institution firms that depend highly on individual donations are more likely to locate in high individual tax states while nonprofits with large mission related revenues are more sensitive to the property tax rate

a matching model with endogenous skill requirements we consider a labor market in which workers differ in their abilities and jobs differ in their skill requirements the distribution of worker abilities is exogenous but we model the choice of skill requirements by firms high skill jobs produce more output than low skill jobs but high skill jobs require high skill workers and thus are more difficult to fill we use a matching model together with a nash bargaining approach to wage setting to determine the equilibrium mix of job types along with the equilibrium relationship between worker and job characteristics wages and unemployment

cournot competition yields spatial agglomeration most theoretical models of spatial competition show a strong tendency toward spatial dispersion of firms yet common observations suggest that firms tend to agglomerate in this paper the authors show that competition between cournot type oligopolists that discriminate over space leads to spatial agglomeration one implication is that firms do not necessarily earn supernormal profits at the free entry equilibrium copyright 1991 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

changes in the structure of earnings during the polish transition abstract we document changes in the structure of earnings during the economic transition in poland we find that inequality in labor earnings increased substantially from 1988 to 1996 a common view is that the reallocation of workers from a public sector with a compressed wage distribution to a private sector with much higher wage inequality accounts for the bulk of increased earnings inequality during transition see e g the models of aghion and commander 1999 aghion philippe commander simon 1999 on the dynamics of inequality in the transition economics of transition 7 275 2898 and commander and tolstopiatenko 1998 commander simon tolstopiatenko andrei 1998 the role of unemployment and restructuring in the transition in commander simon ed enterprise restructuring and unemployment in models of transition the world bank washington pp 169 192 however our decomposition of the sources of the increase in inequality suggests that this compositional effect accounts for only 39 of the increase fully 52 of the increase is due to the increase in the variance of wages within sectors that is earnings inequality within both the private and public sectors grew substantially and by similar amounts this is consistent with prior work suggesting that even state owned enterprises in poland moved towards competitive wage setting as they restructured see e g pinto et al 1993 pinto brian belka marek krajewski stefan 1993 transforming state enterprises in poland evidence on adjustment by manufacturing firms brookings papers on economic activity 213 70 commander and dhar 1998 commander simon dhar sumana 1998 enterprises in the polish transition in simon commander ed enterprise restructuring and unemployment in models of transition the world bank washington pp 109 142 a substantial part of the increase in earnings inequality was between group due largely to increased education premiums however changes in inequality within education experience gender groups account for about 60 percent of the increase in overall earnings inequality the increases in within group inequality were very different across skill groups with much larger increases for highly educated workers these patterns hold in both the private and public sectors although increases in education premiums were somewhat greater in the private sector

exchange rate based disinflation wage rigidity and capital inflows real exchange rate appreciation usually accompanies stabilization programs based on the exchange rate one thing that causes the real exchange rate to appreciate is the capital inflows that follow liberalization of the capital account and the financial market capital inflows cause the exchange rate to appreciate in part because of the resulting increase in expenditures this appreciation is exacerbated if there is some price rigidity and if control of the money supply is only partial all these conditions existed during chile s experiment with exchange rate based disinflation between 1978 and 1981 simulating what might have been the authors study how exchange rate based disinflation affects expenditures switching and reduction when wages are partially indexed in some segments of the labor market the paper also shows the extent to which a more flexible rule on wage indexing would have offset the adverse impact of lower capital flows on protected sector employment

the economics of product variety a survey demand for variety may arise from a taste for diversity in individual consumption and or from diversity in tastes even when each consumer chooses a single variant the full degree of variety potentially demanded will not in general be supplied because scale economies even to a small degree mean that the potential welfare or revenue gain from greater variety must be balanced against the lower unit production costs with fewer variants the economics of product variety consists essentially in analysing the effect of this balance in different situations and comparing the degree of product variety for different market structures with each other and with the optimum the survey commences with the work on market structures with single product firms generalized monopolistic competition tracing modern developments in both the chamberlinian and hotelling traditions the latter has been particularly fruitful due to the expansion of the original locational ideas into virtual spaces in product characteristics the emphasis in recent work on product variety has been on multiproduct firms in both monopolistic and oligopolistic structures including strategic market preemption although most work has been in a full information context there have been advances in product variety under imperfect information either by consumers to properties of the firms products or firms as to consumers demands

the distribution of top earnings in the uk since the second world war much of the change in individual earnings has occurred at the top this paper provides new evidence about the earnings distribution in the uk the evidence is new in that it provides detail about what has happened within the top 10 covering groups such as the top 1 and the top 0 5 the aim is to set the recent rise in top earnings in historical perspective and to make international comparisons the evidence is new in that it covers the whole of the postwar period allowing a contrast to be drawn with the golden age of the 1950s

the logit model of monopolistic competition brand diversity one of the important issues in the literature on monopolistic competition concerns whether the free entry equilibrium will provide sufficient variety of differentiated brands this paper examines variety issue using the logit choice model to capture brand differentiation the consumption value of each brand is drawn from the extreme value distribution and the consumer then purchases the brand with the highest value with the resulting demand structure the authors find that monopolistic competition results in two few firms and thus too few brands from the viewpoint of consumers this result supports the findings of other models with symmetrically differentiated brands copyright 1990 by blackwell publishing ltd

the evolution of individual male earnings in great britain 1975 95 i study the dynamic structure of male wages in great britain using the new earnings survey panel from 1975 95 computing auto covariances of individual wages by cohort i find evidence of a permanent component of earnings that increases over the life cycle and a highly persistent serially correlated transitory component in addition the estimated variances of both these components have risen over this period each explaining about half the rise in inequality using individual s occupation at age 22 i split the sample into four skill groups i find some differences across these groups with the rise in the permanent variance most important for the manual groups

market and institutional determinants of wage differentiation in russia using a range of official and survey data the author evaluates the relative success of two approaches competitive labor market theory and industrial relations theory institutional economics in explaining wage determination in russia following a review of the analysis of wage determination by an influential team of world bank economists the author shows that increased wage inequality in russia is dominated by inequality within occupational categories within local labor markets such inequality he suggests is primarily associated with inter firm differences in wage levels rather than barriers to labor mobility or differences in human capital such a pattern of differentiation entirely accords with the analyses of those institutional economists and industrial relations theorists who stress the role of the wage in regulating and motivating the labor force above its role in securing labor market equilibrium the paper concludes by outlining the institutional framework of wage determination that underli

on gradual disinflation the real exchange rate and the current account abstract we study the effects of a credible gradual exchange rate based disinflation program in a two sector economy after an initial exchange rate depreciation the reductions in the rate of devaluation reduce the monetary wedge generated by the cash in advance constraint leading to a gradual increase in absorption that yields progressive real exchange rate appreciations and current account deficits an initial boom in economic activity is not followed by a later contraction as labour supply expands during the whole length of the program many of the model s predictions are in accordance with the stylized facts on disinflation in chronic inflation countries in particular those of the mexican program of 1988 1992

stabilization policies in developing countries what have we learned abstract the paper reviews the recent experience with stabilization programmes in latin america in the light of traditional and monetarist models of inflation and the exchange rate the traditional model links both inflation and payments problems to budget deficits the monetarist model too believes that inflation is caused by fiscal deficits but it takes a more optimistic view of stabilization full purchasing power parity and perfect capital mobility make stabilization just a question of the appropriate exchange rate policy and the proper rate of domestic credit creation the traditional view is substantially right as a long run model but it fails in the dynamics the monetarist model is as we know now fundamentally wrong as a short run description of the possibilities of inflation control there is need and room for a paradigm that places emphasis on the debt money mix in financing the budget on the stickiness of inflation rates and on the place of short run real exchange rate and real interest rate variations that these are key features of the transition phase is amply borne out by the devasting and unsuccessful experiences with monetarist stabilization in argentina chile and brazil

exchange rate based stabilizations under real frictions the role of endogenous labor supply abstract this paper studies exchange rate based stabilization programs in the context of a model of a small open economy where labor supply is endogenous agents derive utility from both consumption and leisure in environments where consumption is subject to a cash in advance constraint a cut in the rate of devaluation lowers the nominal interest rate and hence alters the optimal mix of consumption and leisure the paper shows that in the presence of adjustment costs of investment a perfectly credible cut in the devaluation rate causes simultaneously a consumption and output boom a cumulative current deficit a sustained real appreciation of the domestic currency and an increase in labor supply over time it is also shown that an imperfectly credible stabilization program in this environment would have effects similar to the perfectly credible program but generate richer dynamics such as an initial boom in output followed by a recession which begins prior to the end of the program the model has clear welfare implications in that permanent reductions in inflation are unambiguously welfare enhancing

crime and economic incentives we explore the role that economic incentives particularly changes in wages at the bottom end of the wage distribution play in determining crime rates we use data on the police force areas of england and wales between 1975 and 1996 and find relative falls in the wages of low wage workers lead to increases in crime we carry out a number of experiments with different wage measures including a wage measure that accounts for the effects of changes in the composition of employment these reinforce the picture of a strong association between the low wage labor market and crime the result that incentives play a central role is reinforced further by the strong impact on crime of deterrence measures and of a measure of the returns to crime

the distributional consequences of tax reforms under capital skill complementarity this paper analyses wage inequality and the welfare effects of changes in capital and labour income tax rates for different types of agents to achieve this we develop a model that allows for capital skill complementarity given non uniform distributions of asset holdings and labour skills we find that capital tax reductions lead to the highest aggregate welfare gains but are skill biased and thus increase inequality however our analysis also shows that the inequality effects of capital tax reductions are lower over the transition period compared with the long run

spatial cournot competition among multi plant firms in a circular city we characterize equilibrium plant locations for a spatial multi plant cournot oligopoly in a circular city previous work demonstrates that for a two plant duopoly all four plants are equally spaced we establish that the equilibrium location pattern is unique if there are two firms with an equal number of plants in most other scenarios multiple equilibria arise next we endogenously determine both the number of plants per firm and plant locations for a duopoly it is shown that the subgame perfect nash equilibrium may not be unique and for identical set up costs the firms may choose different numbers of plants

spatial price discrimination with heterogeneous products product heterogeneity is introduced into the context of spatial price discrimination many of the strong properties of the standard homogeneous goods case which are attained as a limit case here are shown to be no longer valid in particular the social optimum is no longer sustainable as a market equilibrium unless products are either identical or else very different

national and international aspects of financial policies in ldcs a prologue after a period of animated controversy between keynesians advocating policies of low interest rates and monetary expansion and monetarists who insisted on the importance of the distinction between nominal and real interest rates economists have now almost reached a consensus on the role of money in the development process this consensus has arisen because it was increasingly felt that what was called for was not new concepts so much as new ways of looking at them in ldcs money s role need be neither denigrated nor exaggerated money s traditional functions as a medium of exchange and a store of value remain important in ldcs but its function as a conduit of resources from savers to investors is more central to an inderstanding of its contributions to development coats and khatkhate 1980 p 3 the body of the consensus derives from the framework set up by mckinnon and shaw fleshed out by the earlier work of goldsmith and patrick goldsmith 1969 patrick 1966 and extended by the theoretical and empirical output of a large number of younger economists fry 1981 this analysis attached central importance to financial policies of higher real interest rates which were supposed to encourage the build up of real money balances increased financial intermediation and unification of financial markets eventually such a policy would lead to the efficient utilization of resources and particularly of scarce capital this new paradigm has contributed to an improved understanding and perception of the economies of ldcs their problems and how these problems are accentuated by distortions arising from interventionist policies for a while it was believed that the programme contained the secret of how to reconcile stabilization objectives with those of development roe 1982 however the accumulation of empirical evidence on several developing countries where the prescribed set of policies was adopted has raised doubts about the validity of this conclusion in the presence of distortions in the financial markets it is no doubt a sensible policy to raise real interest rates the problematic issue is how far to go raising real interest rates without any regard for the rates of return on investment may run counter to the requirements of development to argue that once funds are generated through the accumulation of real balances investment can take care of itself ignores the very dynamics of development thus the hiatus between stabilization and development has not really been bridged this is evident from the recent concern with supply side policies rather than demand management policies a dichotomy which parallels the distinction between the stabilization and development problems it is this dual distinction which provides the theme of this special issue of world development

obstacles to disinflation what is the role of fiscal expectations persistently high expected inflation often makes it difficult for policy makers to recover from inflationary episodes without substantial output losses using survey data from eleven disinflation episodes we can assess whether the more or less sluggish decline of inflation rates towards lower target levels is related to backward looking pricing behavior or to imperfect credibility of the stabilization efforts we find that expectations of future inflation play a much more important role than past inflation in shaping the inflation process second we find that an improvement in various measures of fiscal balances significantly reduces inflation expectations this evidence suggests that when attempting to stabilize inflation priority should be given to building fiscal credibility oya celasun r gaston gelos and alessandro prati

modern hyper and high inflations since 1947 hyperinflations by cagan s definition in market economies have been rare much more common have been longer inflationary processes with inflation rates above 100 percent per annum based on a sample of 133 countries and using the 100 percent threshold as the basis for a definition of very high inflation episodes this paper examines the main characteristics of such inflations among other things we find that i close to 20 percent of countries have experienced inflation above 100 percent per annum ii higher inflation tends to be more unstable iii in high inflation countries the relationship between the fiscal balance and seigniorage is strong both in the short and long run iv inflation inertia decreases as average inflation rises v high inflation is associated with poor macroeconomic performance and vi stabilizations from high inflation that rely on the exchange rate as the nominal anchor are expansionary

can supply create its own demand implications for rising skill differentials in the 1980s several advanced countries saw rising skilled wage differentials at the same time as increases in the supply of skilled labour some commentators use the orthodox factor demand model based on a competitive labour market to deduce that there must have been shifts in the relative demand curve towards more educated labour in this paper we show that use of this argument is in some situations vulnerable to two criticisms i it is possible to write down reasonable economic models in which the increase in the relative supply of a group can actually increase its relative wage and employment ii as an empirical matter sample selection bias could be a problem to illustrate these two points we first present a simple matching model and then some empirical evidence based on the large increase in the relative supply of more educated workers that followed the late 1980s changes in the uk educational system but did not result in falling wage differentials of the more educated 1997 elsevier science b v

disinflation programs under policy uncertainty abstract this paper uses a model with endogenous labor supply to study exchange rate based inflation stabilization programs under uncertainty regarding the duration of the program the paper finds that the output and consumption dynamics induced by these programs are extremely sensitive to whether the programs are perceived to have a chance of continuing permanently or whether they are expected to end in finite time it is shown that the business cycle dynamics for output that are typically associated with these programs arise only when the policy is expected to collapse in finite time furthermore for the purposes of rationalizing the stylized facts the uncertain duration channel appears to induce a fundamental tension between the consumption dynamics and the current account dynamics these results raise doubts regarding the explanatory power of the uncertain duration channel in particular and the credibility channel in general

product differentiation in spatial cournot markets abstract we introduce to the spatial cournot markets model the inverse demand function of deneckere economics letters 11 1983 37 that allows product differentiation the circular model s outcome alters depending on if goods are complements or substitutes while the linear model results in central agglomeration

new labour and the labour market the recent run of good macroeconomic news masks mounting evidence that worklessness is increasingly concentrated on selected individuals households and socio economic groups and in geographical areas these distributional aspects have been overlooked or ignored over the last 20 years but we believe they now form the most pressing labour market and social problems facing this administration we focus on what we view as the government s selected priorities the concentration of unemployment on certain individuals groups and areas increasing inactivity especially marked among less educated older men low pay persistence of low wages and its relationship with job loss and the distribution of work across households and child poverty many of these problems leave lasting scars on individuals so that successful intervention may beneficially change an individual s life chances we examine the evidence on each of these issues and the current state of policy aimed to reduce their scale or intensity copyright 2000 by oxford university press

the economic effects of a citywide minimum wage this paper presents the first study of the economic effects of a citywide minimum wage san francisco s adoption of an indexed minimum wage set at 8 50 in 2004 and 9 14 by 2007 compared to earli

does cournot competition yield spatial agglomeration abstract locations and quantities are chosen sequentially in spatial markets strikingly different location patterns emerge depending on the shape of the market in a circular city firms locate equidistant from each other in a linear city firms agglomerate at the center

consumer benefiting exclusive territories i investigate the effect of exclusive territories which are typical vertical controls imposed by upstream firms using shipping spatial models i consider an industry that consists of many independent local markets an upstream monopolist restricts competition between downstream firms using exclusive territories i find that exclusive territories reduce the prices of final products in all local markets in quantity setting competition in price setting competition they raise prices in half the local markets reduce them in other markets and also reduce the total consumer surplus jel classification l42 r32 a propos de territoires exclusifs qui profitent aux consommateurs l auteur analyse les effets de la regle des territoires exclusifs qui est souvent imposee comme controle vertical par les entreprises en amont a l aide de modeles spatiaux de livraison on considere le cas d une industrie composee de plusieurs marches locaux independants un monopoleur en amont reduit la concurrence entre entreprises en aval en imposant la regle des territoires exclusifs on decouvre que cette regle reduit les prix du produit final dans tous les marches locaux s il y a concurrence par les quantites s il y a concurrence par les prix la regle accroit les prix dans la moitie des marches locaux les reduit dans les autres et reduit aussi le surplus au consommateur

inflation stabilisation and the consumption of durable goods exchange rate based stabilisations in chronic inflation countries have often been characterised by an initial consumption boom which is most evident in the behaviour of durable goods followed by a later contraction this paper provides an explanation for such a boom recession cycle based on the timing of purchases of durable goods the initial fall in inflation results in a wealth effect which induces many consumers to bring forward their purchases of durable goods thus generating an aggregate consumption boom since most consumers replenish their stock of durable goods at the beginning of the programme a later slowdown follows

the politics of adjustment lessons from the imf s extended fund facility the international debt crisis has forced painful economic adjustments on the developing world in the short run it has forced governments to seek to correct payments imbalances through stabilization programs usually undertaken with conditional assistance from the international monetary fund imf the crisis has also revealed deeper weaknesses in many third world economies weaknesses demanding more basic reforms in the structure of incentives prices and investment

market research and innovation strategy in a duopoly we model a duopoly in which ex ante identical firms must decide where to direct their innovation efforts the firms face market uncertainty about consumers preferences for innovation on two product attributes and technology uncertainty about the success of their research and development r d investments firms can conduct costly market research before setting r d strategy we find that the value of market information to a firm depends on whether its rival is expected to obtain this information in equilibrium consequently one firm may forgo market research even though its rival conducts such research and learns the true state of demand we examine both vertical and horizontal demand structures with vertical preferences firms are a priori uncertain about which attribute all consumers will value more in this case a firm that conducts market research always attempts innovation on the attribute it discovers that consumers prefer and expends more on r d than a rival that has not conducted market research with horizontal preferences distinct segments exist each caring about innovation on only one attribute and firms are a priori uncertain how many consumers each segment contains in this case a firm that conducts market research may follow a niche strategy and attempt innovation to serve the smaller segment to avoid intense price competition for the larger segment a firm that conducts market research may therefore invest less in r d and earn lower postlaunch profits than a rival that has forgone such research

product differences and prices abstract under assumptions following hotelling s 1929 paper stability in competition the possibility of constructing an example in which equilibrium prices exist everywhere and the two merchants display tendencies to agglomerate is ruled out

where to locate in a circular city abstract we study the location choices by cournot oligopolists in a circular market where consumers are located uniformly along the circumference we analyze the subgame perfect nash equilibria spne of a two stage location quantity game we demonstrate that the equidistant location pattern is only one of the many equilibrium location patterns that arise in a circular market nonequidistant multiple or a continuum of location equilibria may also arise both spatial agglomeration and dispersion or a combination of agglomeration and dispersion may occur in equilibrium in the case of infinitely many location equilibria we establish the welfare equivalence of the equilibrium location patterns

partial agglomeration or dispersion in spatial cournot competition 1 introductionsince the seminal work of hotelling 1929 a rich and diverse literature on spatial competition has emerged location models can be classified into two types one type is shipping or spatial price discrimination model where sellers bear transport costs the other is shopping or mill pricing model where buyers pay for transport for each type one can have either bertrand type price setting or cournot type quantity setting 1most studies on location theory use shopping mill pricing models with bertrand competition although cournot and bertrand types of non spatial models are equally popular the body of literature on spatial competition that uses cournot type models is relatively small economists have recently considered shipping models with cournot competition hamilton thisse and weskamp 1989 and anderson and neven 1991 carry out pioneering works on location models 2 they use linear city models and show that all firms agglomerate at the central point pal 1998 shows that their result is crucially dependent on the assumption of a linear city he investigates a circular city duopoly model3 and finds that an equidistant location pattern appears in equilibrium that is locational dispersion appears 4 matsushima 2001a extends pal s model to an n firm oligopoly and shows another equilibrium where half of the firms locate at one point and the other half locate at the opposite point partial agglomeration these results indicate the multiplicity of equilibria in spatial cournot models with a circular city the multiplicity of equilibria restricts the applicability of the model because the model does not give us a distinct prediction in this article we take a close look at pal 1998 and matsushima 2001a we try to solve this problem by extending their linear transport cost model to one with nonlinear transport cost 5 we consider a simplified model the numbers of firms and markets and so possible locations are four four firms choose location a b c or d see if each of the four firms chooses a different location we call this outcome pal type if two firms locate at a and the other two locate at c we call this outcome matsushima type we find that the pal type equilibrium is much more robust because i pal type equilibrium always exists as long as transport cost is increasing in distance while matsushima type equilibrium fails to exist when the transport cost function is significantly convex or concave proposition 1 ii if firms choose their locations sequentially the unique equilibrium outcome is pal type under nonlinear transport cost functions proposition 2 and iii the profit of each firm in pal type is never smaller than that in matsushima type and the former is strictly larger if the transport cost function is nonlinear proposition 3 we also compare the welfare implications of pal type and matsushima type models if the transport cost function is linear the two outcomes yield exactly the same profits consumer surplus and total social surplus however this equivalence does not hold if the transport cost function is nonlinear either convex or concave in this case pal type yields greater total social surplus and profit of each firm while matsushima type yields greater consumer surplus these results indicate that the welfare implications are sensitive to whether or not the transport cost function is linear anderson and neven 1991 show that in the linear city model a strong concavity in transport cost changes the equilibrium outcome this result is related to our results but we emphasize that our results are different from theirs first we show that both concavity and convexity of the transport cost function affect the results while in anderson and neven 1991 only strong convexity changes the result second in our propositions 2 and 3 even a slight nonlinearity changes the results

the decline of labour market institutions and the rise in wage inequality in britain abstract at the same time as the role of labour market institutions declined very dramatically in britain there was a very sharp rise in wage inequality that since 1980 has increased at a faster pace than in most advanced countries britain in the 1980s and early 1990s therefore provides a very good testing ground for evaluating the importance of labour market institutions in explaining the evolution of the wage structure i look at this in terms of two institutions that have traditionally propped up wage levels at the bottom end of the wage distribution unions and minimum wages i find that their weakening has played an important part in the rise in wage inequality in britain

mixed oligopoly and spatial agglomeration abstract we investigate a mixed market where a state owned welfare maximizing public firm competes against profit maximizing private firms we use a circular city model with quantity setting competition in contrast to a pure market case discussed by pal 1998a spatial agglomeration of private firms always appears in equilibrium all private firms locate at the same point and the public firm locates at the opposite side we also find that this equilibrium pattern of the location is second best provided that output of each private firm cannot be controlled by the social planner jel classification h42 l13 oligopole mixte et agglomeration spatiale les auteurs examinent un marche mixte ou une entreprise publique possedee par l etat et cherchant a maximiser le niveau de bien etre est en concurrence avec des entreprises privees qui cherchent a maximiser leurs profits on utilise un modele de cite circulaire ou la concurrence se fait en choisissant la quantite produite en contraste avec le cas du marche parfait discute par pal 1998a l agglomeration spatiale des entreprises privees parait etre en equilibre toutes les entreprises privees se localisent au meme point et l entreprise publique se localise du cote oppose il appert que ce pattern d equilibre de localisation est un equilibre de second ordre compte tenu du fait que la production de chaque entreprise privee ne peut etre controlee par le planificateur social