technological diffusion and asset prices in this paper we demonstrate that the gradual diffusion of technology causes the stock market to exhibit a cyclical behavior more importantly we attribute sharp declines and increases in the stock market such as the ones that occurred in the early 1970s and mid 1990s in the united states to expected rapid technological diffusion

location and attendance in major league baseball this study uses a travel cost model to analyse the attendance impacts on major league baseball mlb of the closest substitute mlb team it is found that the closer two teams are the lower attendance is at each team relative to two teams that are farther apart in addition when a new team moves into the area of an existing team there is an additional initial reduction in attendance for the incumbent team this has implications for actions aimed at changing the number of teams in mlb either by contraction or by possible antitrust approaches that would increase the number of teams especially in megalopolis markets further and consistent with past demand studies pricing is in the inelastic portion of gate demand and fan loyalty is a significant contributor to the estimation of gate attendance

market share market value and innovation in a panel of british manufacturing firms this paper examines the empirical relationship between technological innovations market share and stock market value new developments in the estimation of dynamic count data models are used to control for unobserved firm specific heterogeneity we find a robust and positive effect of market share on observable headcounts of innovations and patents although increased product market competition in the industry tends to stimulate innovative activity furthermore the impact of innovation on market value is larger for firms with higher market shares we argue that our results are consistent with models where high market share firms have incentives to pre emptively innovate

famous myths of fiat money the paper re evaluates the conventional wisdom regarding the existence of moneys that supposedly circulated without any legal status or intrinsic value economists call these objects fiat money i re examine the most famous examples of such objects from primitive societies such as the stone money of yap and seashells which have been cited by some of the most prominent monetary economists i find that actually none of these cases is an evidence of fiat money a general conclusion is that one needs to seriously study the society in question before making a claim that it has used fiat money

the impact of natural disaster on energy consumption international evidence abstract this research shows that natural disasters may hurt energy consumption by using data on 123 countries over the period 1990 2015 and classifying them according to their economic development level and region based on world development indicators we employ a two step system gmm method to examine the effect of natural disasters on energy consumption presenting findings that support our hypotheses in the models and show a strong negative effect for low income countries or those in the africa region after considering an alternative proxy for natural disaster we implement quantile regression methods their results find that natural disasters exhibit a negative and significant impact on oil renewable and nuclear energy consumptions the quantile regression models used in the robustness check present that the effects are stronger for low level energy consumption economies

leveling the playing field or just lowering salaries the effects of redistribution in baseball in an attempt to even the playing field major league baseball has considered a number of different redistribution programs to successfully address the problem of imbalance in the league redistribution must affect teams marginal revenue functions previous theoretical work has shown that efforts to redistribute revenues from rich to poor teams will lower the marginal value of winning of all teams thus reducing the payments to labor but it remains an empirical question as to whether the net effects of such programs have improved balance in this paper we provide an empirical assessment of whether redistributive efforts between 1996 and 2001 succeeded in reallocating talent to less advantaged teams by estimating the effect of redistribution on the marginal revenue functions of small and large market teams our results indicate that redistribution lowered salaries by approximately 22 without affecting league balance

creative destruction and firm specific performance heterogeneity traditional u s industries with higher firm specific stock return and fundamentals performance heterogeneity use information technology it more intensively and post faster productivity growth in the late 20 th century we argue that this mechanically reflects a wave of schumpeter s 1912 creative destruction disrupting a wide swath of industries with successful it adopters unpredictably undermining established firms this validates endogenous growth theory models of creative destruction e g aghion and howitt 1992 and suggests intensified creative destruction as explaining findings associating greater firm specific performance variation with higher per capita gdps economy growth rates accounting standards financial system development and property right protection

schumpeter and venture finance radical theorist broke investor and enigmatic teacher schumpeter s relation to venture finance constitutes a fascinating yet so far unacknowledged chapter of his biography and financial history presenting new historical evidence and pointing out connections that have so far escaped attention we first discuss schumpeter s venture theory of money and banking then his personal history as a broke investor in vienna and finally his influence on the emerging venture industry during his later years at harvard we show how the theoretical vision inspired his own failed effort as a venture investor in the 1920s and provided a powerful intellectual frame for the later development of venture finance in the 1940s

aggregate consequences of limited contract enforceability we study a general equilibrium model in which entrepreneurs finance investment with optimal financial contracts because of enforceability problems contracts are constrained efficient we show that limited enforceability amplifies the impact of technological innovations on aggregate output this implies that economies with lower enforceability of contracts are characterized by greater macroeconomic volatility a key assumption for the amplification result is that defaulting entrepreneurs are not excluded from the market

explosive oil prices spectacular oil price increases occur on a regular basis the most recent one is dated july 2008 this paper puts forward the notion that extreme oil price movements of this type can be described as temporary explosive the paper applies a forward recursive unit root tests and finds evidence of explosive behavior in the following periods 1990 1991 2005 2006 and 2007 2008 currently existing oil price models are not capable of appropriately describing this type of behavior a thorough discussion of the underlying reasons of these price hikes indicates these oil price episodes even though extreme are mainly fundamentally explained this finding is insufficiently acknowledged in the literature on speculative oil price bubbles thus policy interventions as response to extreme movements of this kind need to be very carefully thought through

speculative growth hints from the u s economy we propose a framework for understanding episodes of vigorous economic expansion and extreme asset valuations we interpret this phenomenon as a high valuation equilibrium with a low cost of capital based on optimism about future funding the key ingredient for such equilibrium is feedback from increased growth to a decline in the long run cost of capital this feedback arises when an expansion comes with technological progress in the capital sector when fiscal rules generate procyclical fiscal surpluses when the rest of the world has lower expansion potential or high saving needs and when financial constraints are relaxed by the expansion itself

retrospectives an early supply side demand side controversy petty law cantillon early modern europe in the late seventeenth and early eighteenth centuries witnessed an unprecedented increase in the rate of economic growth and governments entertained a wide range of proposals aimed at developing and harnessing foreign trade and emerging financial markets in his magisterial survey of foreign trade doctrine titled studies in the theory of international trade 1936 jacob viner pointed out that enlightened authors of that time were often nonbullionist mercantilists they favored export promotion and import reduction not on the grounds that it would lead to an accumulation of gold but on the grounds that it would increase trade and employment my focus here is on how some key economists of this time period william petty john law and richard cantillon adumbrated disputes between supply side and demand side macroeconomics that have continued to the present day

financial crashes as endogenous jumps estimation testing and forecasting abstract this paper provides an econometric approach for forecasting financial crashes based on diffusion processes with time varying parameters that are driven by market fundamentals under a polynomial drift function one obtains a cusp stochastic process that entails a generalized exponential stationary distribution this class of densities is quite convenient as it allows for skewness different tail shapes and even multimodality which corresponds to multiple equilibria movements from one equilibrium to another due to changes in the market fundamentals then relates to crashes methods for fitting and evaluating this sort of diffusion processes are proposed to enable the estimation and forecast of crash events finally an empirical assessment is carried out by tracking the likelihood of a crash during the swedish twin crises in the early 1990s

technological change and the stock market tobin s average q has usually been well above 1 but fell below 1 during 1974 1984 our model explains this pattern and reconciles it with unchanging aggregate investment the stock market value in the numerator of q reflects ownership of physical capital and knowledge but the denominator measures just physical capital therefore q is usually above 1 periodic arrivals of important new technologies such as the microprocessor in the 1970 s suddenly render old knowledge and capital obsolete causing the stock market to drop national accounts measures of physical capital miss this rapid obsolescence then q appears to drop below 1 jel e44 o3 o41

rational herding in financial economics abstract this paper briefly describes recent papers on the economics of rational herding in financial markets some models can predict perfect herding in which rational agents all act alike without any countervailing force such herding typically arises either from direct payoff externalities negative externalities in bank runs positive externalities in the generation of trading liquidity or in information acquisition principal agent problems based on managerial desire to protect or signal reputation or informational learning cascades the paper also provides a few pointers to related literature and suggests issues to be addressed in future research

bubbles in us regional house prices evidence from house price income ratios at the state level we investigate the presence of bubbles in the us house price income ratio at the state level by applying the recent time series based econometric test to data from january 1975 to december 2014 we

enterprise recovery following natural disasters using data from surveys of enterprises in sri lanka after the december 2004 tsunami the authors undertake the first microeconomic study of the recovery of the private firms in a developing country following a major natural disaster disaster recovery in low income countries is characterized by the prevalence of relief aid rather than of insurance payments the data show this distinction has important consequences the data indicate that aid provided directly to households correlates reasonably well with reported losses of household assets but is uncorrelated with reported losses of business assets business recovery is found to be slower than commonly assumed with disaster affected enterprises lagging behind unaffected comparable firms more than three years after the disaster using data from random cash grants provided by the project the paper shows that direct aid is more important in the recovery of enterprises operating in the retail sector than for those operating in the manufacturing and service sectors

wasteful public spending and state aid control the conventional academic rationale for supranational intervention to curb state aids to industry appeals to transfrontier spillovers however competition policy practitioners often speak in terms of curbing wasteful spending regardless of whether or not any international spillovers are involved although it is often argued that such wasteful spending calls not for supranational state aid control but rather for better domestic political accountability this paper argues that wasteful spending may be a by product of accountability not a symptom of its absence specifically we describe a model in which politicians fund projects that are wasteful as a way to signal their diligence and voters rationally reward them for this we discuss implications for the role of state aid control mechanisms 2006 by the european economic association

the 1929 stock market irving fisher was right many stock market analysts think that in 1929 at the time of the crash stocks were overvalued irving fisher argued just before the crash that fundamentals were strong and the stock market was undervalued in this article we use growth theory to estimate the fundamental value of corporate equity and compare it to actual stock valuations our estimate is based on values of productive corporate capital both tangible and intangible and tax rates on corporate income and distributions the evidence strongly suggests that fisher was right even at the 1929 peak stocks were undervalued relative to the prediction of theory

new evidence on the first financial bubble the mississippi bubble south sea bubble and the dutch windhandel of 1720 together represent the world s first global financial bubble we hand collect cross sectional price data and investor account data from 1720 to test theories about market bubbles our tests suggest that innovation was a key driver of bubble expectations we present evidence against the currently prevailing debt for equity conversion hypothesis and relate stock returns to innovations in atlantic trade and insurance we find evidence consistent with the innovation driven bubble dynamics documented by pastor and veronesi 2009 for new economy stocks our evidence seems inconsistent with clientele based theories that emphasize bubble riding and short sales restrictions

book reviewjohn law economic theorist and policy maker by antoin e murphy oxford clarendon press 1997 pp 3921xiv 75 00

the inflow effect trader inflow and price efficiency abstract we investigate the impact of cash and trader inflow on price efficiency in multi period experimental asset markets implementing eight treatments with 672 subjects we find that i the joint inflow of cash and traders triggers strong overvaluation and massive price run ups inflow effect remarkably the effect occurs in almost all of the 30 markets with joint cash and trader inflow and is very robust the effect even prevails in markets with complete and symmetric fundamental information we further show that ii in treatments with the joint inflow of cash and traders prices crash to fundamentals towards maturity of the asset the analysis of traders beliefs reveals that iii despite fundamental values staying constant beliefs about fundamentals co move with upwardly trending prices finally we report a speculative motive only among the optimists in treatments where we observe the inflow effect

spatial growth and industry age between 1970 and 2000 employment growth across u s counties exhibited very different patterns in manufacturing and services whereas manufacturing employment growth was negatively related to initial manufacturing employment across the entire distribution of counties service employment growth was positively related to initial service employment for intermediate sized counties this paper presents a theory to rationalize these facts local sectoral growth is driven by technological diffusion across space and depends on the age of the sector the theory correctly predicts the relation between county employment growth and initial county employment in manufacturing at the turn of the 20th century

investment options and the business cycle abstract this paper extends r mehra e c prescott recursive competitive equilibrium the case of homogeneous households econometrica 48 1980 1365 1380 to a production economy with two capital goods it is an rbc model in which each unit of investment requires a new idea an option when options are scarce new capital is harder to put in place and the value of old capital rises thus the stock market and tobin s q are negative indexes of intangibles during a boom q rises gradually as options are used up because investment represents an exercise of options it has an intertemporal substitution tradeoff that is absent from the adjustment cost model equilibrium may be efficient even without markets for knowledge the stock market may suffice

testing for bubbles in exchange markets a case of sparkling rates this paper investigates the possibility that the observed deviations of major bilateral exchange rates from values implied by market fundamentals are a consequence of rational asset market bubbles when a new econometric methodology for detecting asset market bubbles is used the joint hypothesis of no bubbles and stable autoregressive processes for relative money supplies and real incomes is rejected for the dollar deutsche mark and dollar pound ratesusing monthly data over the period 1973 82 additional tests for coefficient stability and for lack of cointegration between exchange rates and market fundamentals suggest that the bubble findings must be interpreted with care

the role of dutch auctions and lotteries in shaping the art market s of 17th century holland abstract this article examines institution formation in the nascent art markets of 17th century amsterdam and haarlem in response to external and internal pressures on artists guilds in amsterdam poor quality imports often copies were touted as originals and sold in clandestine dutch auctions the deliberate confusion about quality imparted to the market features similar to those of akerlof s lemons model and a need for quality guarantees gave occasion to dealers in haarlem and other towns demand was viewed as fixed and guilds toughened restrictions on the supply side dissenters successfully used lotteries to show that demand can be engendered promotion was to become a key feature of later art markets

radio s impact on public spending if informed voters receive favorable policies then the invention of a new mass medium may affect government policies since it affects who is informed and who is not these ideas are developed in a voting model the model forms the basis for an empirical investigation of a major new deal relief program implemented in the middle of the expansion period of radio the main empirical finding is that u s counties with many radio listeners received more relief funds more funds were allocated to poor counties with high unemployment but controlling for these and other variables the effects of radio are large and highly significant

investment banks as corporate monitors in the early twentieth century united states we study the effect of financial relationships on firms investment decisions and access to external finance in the early twentieth century securities underwriters commonly held directorships with american corporations section 10 of the clayton antitrust act prohibited bankers from serving on the boards of railroads for which they underwrote securities we find that following the implementation of section 10 railroads with strong preexisting relationships with underwriters saw declines in their investment rates valuations and leverage and increases in their costs of external funds reassuringly we do not observe similar effects among industrials and utilities which were not subject to section 10 our results are consistent with underwriters on corporate boards acting as delegated monitors and highlight the potential for regulations intended to address conflicts of interest to disrupt valuable information flows

famous first bubbles t he jargon of economics and finance contains numerous colorful expressions to denote a market determined asset price at odds with any reasonable economic explanation such words as tulip mania bubble chain letter ponzi scheme panic crash and financial crisis immediately evoke images of frenzied and probably irrational speculative activity many of these terms have emerged from specific speculative episodes which have been sufficiently frequent and important that they underpin a strong current belief among economists that key capital markets sometimes generate irrational and inefficient pricing and allocational outcomes before economists relegate a speculative event to the inexplicable or bubble category however we must exhaust all reasonable economic explanations while such explanations are often not easily generated due to the inherent complexity of economic phenomena the business of economists is to find clever fundamental market explanations for events and our methodology should always require that we search intensively for market fundamental explanations before clutching the bubble last resort thus among the reasonable or market fundamental explanations i would include the perception of an increased probability of large returns the perception might be triggered by genuine economic good news by a convincing new economic theory about payoffs or by a fraud launched by insiders acting strategically to trick investors it might also be triggered by uninformed market participants correctly inferring changes in the distribution of dividends by observing price movements generated by the trading of informed insiders while some of these perceptions might

financing development the role of information costs to address how technological progress in nancial intermediation aects the economy a costly state veri cation framework is embedded into the standard growth model the framework has two novel ingredients first rms dier in the risk return combinations that they oer second the e cacy of monitoring depends upon the amount of resources invested in the activity a nancial theory of rm size results undeserving rms are over nanced deserving ones under funded technological advance in intermediation leads to more capital accumulation and a redirection of funds away from unproductive rms toward productive ones quantitative analysis suggests that nance is important for growth

expectations and bubbles in asset pricing experiments abstract we present results on expectation formation in a controlled experimental environment in each period subjects are asked to predict the next price of a risky asset the realized market price is derived from an unknown market equilibrium equation with feedback from individual forecasts in most experiments prices deviate from the benchmark fundamental and bubbles emerge endogenously these bubbles are inconsistent with rational expectations and seem to be driven by trend chasing behavior or positive feedback expectations of the participants we also analyze individual predictions of participants and find that participants within a group tend to coordinate on a common prediction strategy

mood swings and business cycles evidence from sign restrictions this paper provides new evidence that bouts of optimism and pessimism are an important source of u s business cycles using the identification schemes based on sign restrictions we document that identified optimism and pessimism shocks account for about 30 of u s business cycle fluctuations in hours and output in addition our empirical findings are consistent with the intensive and extensive margin adjustments in the u s labor market over business cycles providing further support to optimism shocks being an important source of u s business cycles the identified optimism shocks are at least partially rational as total factor productivity is found to rise 8 12 quarters after an initial bout of optimism while this later finding is consistent with some previous findings in the news shock literature we cannot rule out that such episodes reflect self fulfilling beliefs

technological revolutions and the three great slumps a medium run analysis abstract the great recession the great depression and the japanese slump of the 1990s were all preceded by periods of major technological innovation which happened about 10 years before the start of the decline in economic activity we estimate a model with noisy news we find that beliefs about long run income adjust to permanent shifts in productivity with an important delay the estimation tells a common and simple story for the observed dynamics of productivity and consumption on a 20 to 25 year window our analysis highlights the advantages of a look at this data from the point of view of the medium run

how do patent laws influence innovation evidence from nineteenth century world fairs studies of innovation have focused on the effects of patent laws on the number of innovations but have ignored effects on the direction of technological change this paper introduces a new dataset of close to fifteen thousand innovations at the crystal palace world s fair in 1851 and at the centennial exhibition in 1876 to examine the effects of patent laws on the direction of innovation the paper tests the following argument if innovative activity is motivated by expected profits and if the effectiveness of patent protection varies across industries then innovation in countries without patent laws should focus on industries where alternative mechanisms to protect intellectual property are effective analyses of exhibition data for 12 countries in 1851 and 10 countries in 1876 indicate that inventors in countries without patent laws focused on a small set of industries where patents were less important while innovation in countries with patent laws appears to be much more diversified these findings suggest that patents help to determine the direction of technical change and that the adoption of patent laws in countries without such laws may alter existing patterns of comparative advantage across countries jel d2 k11 l51 no 014

the dynamo and the computer an historical perspective on the modern productivity paradox the dynamo and the computer an historical perspective on the modern productivity paradox author s paul a david source the american economic review vol 80 no 2 papers and proceedings of the hundred and second annual meeting of the american economic association may 1990 pp 355 361 published by american economic association stable url http www jstor org stable 2006600 accessed 08 12 2010 01 40

the allocational role of takeover bids in situations of asymmetric information have special information about the target firm s resources which indicates that the target is really worth more than its current market valuation hence the acquiring firm by paying only a small premium is able to acquire these resources at a price below the true worth to shareholders indicated by the inside information thus shareholders are unable to capture the true benefits of their investments and an inefficient amount of investment will take place therefore the government should restrict takeover bids the above argument is clearly wrong if there is competition among informed bidders for the target firm s assets however proponents of the argument claim that some takeover bids occur exactly because only one agent has special inside information about the target company s resources in this paper we show that

venture capital and the macroeconomy i develop a model of venture capital vc intermediation that quantitatively explains central empirical facts about vc activity and can evaluate its macroeconomic relevance the impact of vc backed innovations is significantly larger than suggested by observed aggregate venture exit valuations even after accounting for large exposures to systematic and uninsurable idiosyncratic risks the risk properties of venture capital play a quantitatively important role in both explaining empirical regularities and shaping the value of ventures contributions to economic growth the model is analytically tractable and yields exact solutions despite the presence of matching frictions imperfect risk sharing and endogenous growth received january 16 2018 editorial decision november 7 2018 by editor stijn van nieuwerburgh

do 18th century bubbles survive the scrutiny of 21st century time series econometrics abstract applying the methods of phillips et al 2015 psy while considering the possibility of non stationary volatility harvey et al 2016 evidence of exuberance in share prices is confirmed for the south sea company and established for a number of other 18th century financial organisations for the first time the timings of these bubble episodes show signs of possible contagion

the impact of natural disasters on household income expenditure poverty and inequality evidence from vietnam natural disasters are expected exacerbate poverty and inequality but little evidence exists to support the impact at household level this article examines the effect of natural disasters on household income expenditure poverty and inequality using the vietnam household living standard survey in 2008 the effects of a natural disaster on household income and expenditure corrected for fixed effects and potential endogeneity bias are estimated at 6 9 and 7 1 declines in vietnamese household per capita income and expenditure respectively natural disasters demonstrably worsen expenditure poverty and inequality in vietnam and thus should be considered as a factor in designing poverty alleviation policies

financial market reactions following technological discontinuities a non event study in two industries a large body of literature has explored the challenges of technological change for established firms much of this work has focused on factors internal to firms such as inertial routines or managers cognitive limitations that constrain incumbents development of new capabilities and response to new technologies but institutional pressures arising from financial markets and the securities analysts who mediate such markets likely also play a role in whether and how incumbent firms respond to technological change we know little about how financial markets and securities analysts react as an incumbent firm is faced with a radical technological discontinuity that threatens to substitute for the existing technology understanding such reactions is critical as they further influence whether and how incumbents respond to technological discontinuities in this article i explore securities analysts reactions to incumbent firms faced with technological discontinuities in two industries digital technology in photography and voice over internet protocol voip technology in wireline telecommunications i find that these discontinuities go largely unmentioned in analysts reports and appear to have little influence on analysts recommendations or stock prices even for several years the findings suggest further that analysts and investors continue to reward incumbents for cash flows arising from focusing on the existing business and technology despite the increasing certainty of technological obsolescence copyright 2008 oxford university press

el nino or el peso crisis poverty and income distribution in the philippines using household survey data for 1998 the authors assess the distributional impact of the recent economic crisis in the philippines the results suggest that the impact of the crisis was modest leading to a five percent reduction in average living standards and a nine percent increase in the incidence of poverty with larger increases indicated for the depth and severity of poverty the greater shock came from el nino rather than through the labor market the labor market shock was progressive reducing inequality while el nino shock was regressive increasing inequality not all households were equally vulnerable to the crisis induced shocks household and community characteristics affected the impact of the shocks ownership of land made households more susceptible to the el nino shocks higher levels of education made households more vulnerable to wage and employment shocks the impact of the crisis was greater in more commercially developed communities occupational diversity within a household helped mitigate the adverse impact there is some evidence of consumption smoothing by the households affected by the crisis but the poor were less able to protect their consumption which is a matter of policy concern

the macroeconomic consequences of disasters abstract natural disasters have a statistically observable adverse impact on the macro economy in the short run and costlier events lead to more pronounced slowdowns in production yet interestingly developing countries and smaller economies face much larger output declines following a disaster of similar relative magnitude than do developed countries or bigger economies a close study of the determinants of these adverse macroeconomic output costs reveals several interesting patterns countries with a higher literacy rate better institutions higher per capita income higher degree of openness to trade and higher levels of government spending are better able to withstand the initial disaster shock and prevent further spillovers into the macro economy these all suggest an increased ability to mobilize resources for reconstruction financial conditions also seem to be of importance countries with more foreign exchange reserves and higher levels of domestic credit but with less open capital accounts appear more robust and better able to endure natural disasters with less adverse spillover into domestic production

attendance and promotions in minor league baseball the carolina league this empirical study investigates determinants of attendance at minor league baseball games in the carolina league in 2006 the focus of the analysis is on the effect of a wide variety of game day promotions on attendance on a game by game basis rather than aggregate attendance during the season the ordinary least square ols results imply that attendance is positively a function of per capita income in the city or county hosting the team runs scored by the home team friday and saturday games and promotions that provide cost reduced food or beverages low and high value merchandise and post game fireworks attendance is negatively a function of home team errors monday games and possibly rainy conditions during the game an unusual finding with respect to minor league baseball is that team performance variables affect attendance however home team runs scored and home team errors contribute to the overall entertainment experience for the home team fans and thus yield plausible effects on attendance

the information technology revolution and the stock market evidence since 1968 the ratio of stock market capitalization to gdp has varied by a factor of 5 in 1972 the ratio stood at above unity but by 1974 it had fallen to 0 45 where it stayed for the next decade it then began a steady climb and today it stands above 2 we argue that the it revolution was behind this and moreover that the capitalization gdp ratio is likely to decline and then rise after any major technological shift the three assumptions that deliver the result are

complex bubble persistence in closed end country funds abstract we seek to resolve the misspecified fundamental problem in speculative bubbles through examining the behavior of closed end country funds which possess well defined fundamentals based on their net asset values we study six funds during an episode when large premia emerged and subsequently disappeared we apply rescaled range and regime switching tests which reject the no bubble null hypothesis for these premia these results are placed in a complex bubble model framework interpretable according to the big player model

margin short selling and lotteries in experimental asset markets the robustness of bubbles and crashes in markets for assets with finite lives is perplexing this paper reports the results of experimental asset markets in which participants trade two assets in some markets price bubbles form in these markets traders pay higher prices for the asset with lottery characteristics i e a claim on a large unlikely payoff however institutional design has a significant impact on deviations in prices from fundamental values particularly for an asset with lottery characteristics price run ups and crashes are moderated when traders finance purchases of the assets themselves and are allowed to short sell

the invariance principle in baseball new evidence this article considers the change in revenue sharing in major league baseball that occurred prior to the 2007 season and its effects on parity via its effects on marginal revenues based on the results from an empirical specification for team revenue we find evidence that the reduction in revenue sharing increased marginal revenue by more for large market clubs than for small market clubs despite holding constant other differences in how small and large market club revenues are determined the upshot of this result is that the modest reduction in revenue sharing could have worsened league parity by 11 to 17 points in winning percentage between small and large market clubs although other factors affect parity as well the well known invariance principle in the economics of sport literature does not appear to hold however the current consensus of theoretical models is not confirmed

women wealth and mobility using estate tax returns data we observe that the share of women among the very wealthy in the united states peaked in the late 1960s at nearly one half and then declined to one third we argue that this pattern reflects changes in the importance of dynastic wealth with the share of women proxying for inher ited wealth if so wealth mobility decreased until the 1970s and rose thereafter such an interpretation is consistent with technological change driving long term trends in mobility and inequality as well as the recent divergence between top wealth and top income shares documented elsewhere jel d31 j16 j62 033 the extent of and changes in intergenerational mobility of wealth are central to understanding dynamics of wealth inequality but are hard to measure in this paper we argue that the share of women among the wealthiest americans can be used as a proxy for the importance of inherited rela tive to self made wealth this approach assumes that women tend to inherit rather than make great fortunes if so a higher share of women among the wealthy would reflect a rise in inherited wealth at the top and thus lower wealth mobility conversely higher wealth mobility where self made wealth replaces inherited wealth would result in more men at the top of the wealth distribution judged by this proxy and corroborated by various data sources wealth mobility decreased in the period 1925 1969 and increased thereafter such a pattern is consistent with an important role for technological change in shaping the wealth distribution and can provide an explanation for why wealth concentra tion has remained stable despite increasing income concentration in the last three decades over the past century the share of women among the very wealthy followed an inverse u pattern peaking in the late 1960s according to estate tax returns in 1925 one quarter of the wealthiest 0 01 percent were women this fraction rose rapidly through world war ii wwii and then more slowly to peak in 1969 when women neared parity with men since then the decline has been marked by 2000 women s share had fallen to one third its prewar level while the rise was evident among all wealth groups in the top 1 percent of the wealth distribution the decline was confined to the very top figure ia graphs the share of women for four different groups in the top 1 percent among decedents by year figure ib does the same for the living population with the help of estate multipliers a method that treats death as a random sampling device and uses mortality rates by age and gender to infer the distribution of wealth among the living as described in the data appendix while the rise in the share of women among the wealthy until the 1960s could reflect improve ments in women s economic status labor market gains work against the recent decline for instance since the 1970s the share of women among top earners top 0 1 percent has risen by

team roster turnover and attendance in major league baseball empirical support is shown for the propositionthat sports fans prefer the composition of their home team to remain the same from season to season controlling for price income population team quality league year the stadium effects the regression results indicate that for each percentage point increase in the turnover of the composition of the team attendance will fall by about 0 7 the implications of this heretofore ignored tendency are briefly discussed

hybrid innovation in meiji japan japan s hybrid innovation system during the meiji era provides a useful laboratory for examining the effectiveness of complementary incentives to patents patents were introduced in 1885 and by 1911 1 2 million mostly nonpecuniary prizes were awarded at 8 503 competitions prizes provided a strong boost to patents especially in less developed prefectures and they also induced large spillovers of technical knowledge in prefectures adjacent to those with prizes relative to distant control prefectures without prizes linking competition expenditures with the expected market value of patents induced by the prizes permits a cost benefit assessment of the prize competitions to be made

dynamics of biofuel stock prices a bayesian approach we use bayesian markov chain monte carlo methods to investigate the linkage between the volatility of ethanol security prices and the uncertainty surrounding the profitability of ethanol production and the price variations of non ethanol energy securities the joint evolution of return and volatility is modeled as a stochastic process that incorporates jumps in both return and volatility while a strong and significant correlation is found between the volatility of ethanol securities and profit uncertainty from june 2005 to july 2008 the dynamic pattern of ethanol stock volatility is strikingly similar to that of the s p 500 energy sector index in the more recent period our evidence lends support to the findings in the literature on rational learning from uncertainty in determining the equity price and volatility during the adoption and development of a technological innovation

impact of natural disasters on income inequality in sri lanka abstract we explore the relationship between natural disasters and income inequality in sri lanka as the first study of this nature for the country the analysis uses a unique panel data set constructed for the purpose of this paper it contains district inequality measures based on household income reported in six waves of the household income and expenditure survey of sri lanka during the period between 1990 and 2013 data on disaster affected population and other economic and social indicators employing a panel fixed effects estimator we find that contemporaneous natural disasters and their immediate lags significantly and substantially decrease inequality in per adult equivalent household income as measured by the theil index findings are robust across various inequality metrics sub samples and alternative estimators such as ordinary least squares and system gmm however natural disasters do not affect household expenditure inequality either households behave as if they have a permanent income or all households reduce their expenditure proportionately irrespective of their income level in responding to natural disasters natural disasters decrease non seasonal agricultural and non agricultural income inequality but increase seasonal agricultural income inequality income of richer households is mainly derived from non agricultural sources such as manufacturing and business activities and non seasonal agricultural activities poorer households have a higher share of agricultural income

relationships between household consumption and inequality in the indian states current evidence on the relationships between growth and inequality is predominantly based on cross country data sets or panel data sets covering a small number of time periods but these relationships being fundamentally dynamic in nature need to be considered over a much longer time horizon available state level results from the national sample surveys in india provide such an opportunity this article uses this unique data set to examine the interrelationships between average consumption and inequality within states and test for causality distributional patterns of growth vary but there is strong evidence in many instances of a strong negative effect of initial inequality on subsequent growth

determinants of revenue in sports leagues an empirical assessment this study investigates determinants of revenue in north america s four major professional sports leagues revenue is positively associated with on field success in baseball mlb basketball nba and hockey nhl but not in football nfl the returns to success are not diminishing as commonly assumed which casts doubt on the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis and differences across leagues are consistent with revenue sharing arrangements estimates indicate a strong negative but diminishing relationship between stadium age and revenue teams in larger markets generate more revenue than smaller markets but the returns to success do not differ according to market size jel z21

shakeouts and market crashes this article provides a microfoundation for the rise in optimism that seems to precede market crashes small young markets are more likely to experience stock price run ups and crashes we use a zeira rob type of model in which demand size is uncertain optimism then grows rationally if traders prior distribution over market size has a decreasing hazard such prior beliefs are appropriate if most new markets are duds and only a few reach a large size the crash occurs when capacity outstrips demand as an illustration for the period 1971 2001 we fit the model to the telecom sector

economic development and the impacts of natural disasters abstract we use disaster impact data over time to examine the degree to which the human and economic losses from natural disasters are reduced as economies develop we find that countries with higher income higher educational attainment greater openness more complete financial systems and smaller government experience fewer losses

should central banks burst bubbles some microeconomic issues anti bubble policy is examined in a finite horizon greater fool bubble model with rational agents asymmetric information and short sales constraints this permits the use of standard tools of welfare economics to analyse bubble policies policy is modelled as deflating overpriced assets by revealing information about this overpricing if the central bank is following such a policy then the market interprets inaction as an implicit endorsement of asset prices which raises these prices also the central bank can deflate overpriced assets even if it has no informational advantage over any investors about this overpricing however unless it has such an informational advantage a bubble bursting rule may only make things worse

organizational capital technology adoption and the productivity slowdown abstract there is evidence linking the productivity slowdown of the 1970s and 1980s to changing patterns of technological adoption related to the spread of information technology it notably it appears to require plant level reorganization for its full implementation i develop a general equilibrium model in which organizational capital plays a central role in establishment dynamics and study its transition path after a shock in the form of an incompatibility between new technologies and previously accumulated plant level expertise the behavior of the model is consistent with the structure of the slowdown as well as the subsequent resurgence further applications are discussed

does innovation cause stock market runups evidence from the great crash this article examines the stock market s changing valuation of corporate patentable assets between 1910 and 1939 it shows that the value of knowl edge capital increased significantly during the 1920s compared to the 1910s as investors responded to the quality of technological inventions innovation was an important driver of the late 1920s stock market runup and the great crash did not reflect a significant revaluation of knowledge capital relative to physical capital although substantial quantities of influential patents were accumulated during the post crash recovery high technology firms did not earn significant excess returns over low technology firms for most of the 1930s

the assessment the new economy the remarkable economic success of the united states in the 1990s led many observers to talk about a new economy this paper provides an overview of the main issues including faster productivity growth the stability of inflation despite very low unemployment the reduction in output volatility the role of monetary policy and the boom in the stock market the paper also considers whether or not the acceleration in productivity growth can be sustained and the possible implications for the rest of the world copyright 2002 oxford university press

securities analysts and incumbent response to radical technological change evidence from digital photography and internet telephony a large body of research has explored the factors that impede established firms responses to radical technological changes while it is widely acknowledged that managers face pressures from financial markets to choose strategies that maximize shareholder value little work in the technological change literature has considered the possible influences of public equity markets and the securities analysts who mediate them on incumbent firms challenged with technological change in this paper i begin to address the topic by empirically exploring how securities analysts react to the different strategies undertaken by incumbent firms faced with radical technological change i study the question in two settings the shift to digital technology in photography and the advent of voice over internet protocol voip technology in wireline telecommunications i find evidence that analysts are more attentive and positive toward incumbents strategies that extend and preserve the existing technology than toward strategies that respond directly to the new technology in these settings analysts largely ignore incumbents strategies that directly incorporate the new technology for several years following the discontinuity this study provides insights into the nature and direction of analysts reactions to firms strategies in the context of technological change and is a first step toward better understanding of the potential role of analysts and financial markets in incumbent adaptation

economic shocks and crime evidence from the crash of ponzi schemes abstract in november 2008 colombian authorities dismantled a network of ponzi schemes making hundreds of thousands of investors lose tens of millions of dollars throughout the country using original data on the geographical incidence of the ponzi schemes this paper estimates the impact of their breakdown on crime we find that the crash of ponzi schemes differentially exacerbated crime in affected districts confirming the intuition of the standard economic model of crime this effect is only present in places with relatively weak judicial and law enforcement institutions and with little access to consumption smoothing mechanisms such as microcredit in addition we show that with the exception of economically motivated felonies such as robbery violent crime is not affected by the negative shock

varying heterogeneity among u s firms facts and implications abstract u s firms stock return volatility rose fivefold from 1971 through 2000 and then reverted to near 1971 levels by 2006 this was driven mainly by a rise and fall in the firm specific rather than systematic component of volatility firm level total factor productivity growth volatility exhibited a similar pattern we hypothesize that firm heterogeneity reflected in firm specific volatility rises as a new general purpose technology gpt propagates across the economy and then ebbs once the gpt is widespread measuring gpt adoption by information technology capital intensity we find robust cross industry empirical evidence supporting the hypothesis

innovative activity over the business cycle this paper examines cyclical patterns of innovative activity in the united kingdom over the period 1948 83 innovative activity turns out to have many of the properties of a random walk but does show a tendency to cluster during booms there is clear evidence of a long term secular relation between the level of innovative activity and the level of economic activity although this may have changed in the 1980s finally the data provide no reason for thinking that these clusters of innovation cause cyclic variations in economic activity but variations in economic activity do granger cause changes in innovative activity copyright 1995 by royal economic society

the existence and persistence of a winner s curse new evidence from the baseball field this study takes advantage of recent developments in the measurement and valuation of individual output in the baseball labor market to i reassess prior evidence that this market is afflicted by the winner s curse phenomenon and ii test whether bidders learn to avoid this curse over time though we find no evidence of negative average returns on player contracts for the earliest cohort of baseball free agents we conclude that teams in that era failed to efficiently discount their bids in accord with available information especially about risk what is more evidence from a larger sample of players signed in the late 1990s shows that teams have continued to overvalue inconsistent free agents and failed to limit their bids to conform to players lower values in small markets this is consistent with experimental evidence that finds bounded rational behavior when bidders are faced with complex valuation problems involving multiple elements

mergers and the market for organization capital abstract in this paper mergers are an equilibrium outcome in which acquirers marry targets so as to gain access to their organization capital firms with lower learning costs about the new technology are not necessarily those that manage it best once it is mature since there are gains from trade a market for organization capital can arise through mergers this model generates a merger wave after a shock to technology and is consistent with several other stylized facts on mergers documented in the literature

the information technology revolution and the stock market technological progress comes in waves the british industrial revolution 1760 1850 ushered in cort s puddling and rolling process for making iron crompton s mule for spinning cotton and the watt steam engine the second industrial revolution 1890 1930 witnessed the rise of electricity the internal combustion engine and the chemical industry the birth of information technology it may herald the start of a third industrial revolution a new technology or product is often developed by the single entrepreneur who initially finds it hard to get funds develop the product and find customers but if the product is good customers eventually line up and investors flock in other firms then move in to make the product and may drive the innovator out or acquire him whether he reaches the initial public offering ipo stage or is acquired by a listed firm though it takes time for the innovator to add value to the stock market indeed the innovation may at first reduce the market s value because some firms usually large or old will cling to old technologies that have lost their momentum figure 1 plots the market value of u s equity relative to gdp this paper argues that a the market declined in the late 1960 s because it felt that the old technologies either had lost their momentum or would give way to it and that b it innovators boosted the stock market s value only in the 1980 s if the stock market provides a forecast of future events then the recent dramatic upswing represents a rosy estimate about growth in future profits for the economy this translates into a forecast of higher output and productivity growth holding other things equal such as capital s share