national institutions and subnational development in africa we investigate the role of national institutions on subnational african development in a novel framework that accounts both for local geography and cultural genetic traits we exploit the fact that the political boundaries in the eve of african independence partitioned more than two hundred ethnic groups across adjacent countries subjecting similar cultures residing in homogeneous geographic areas to different formal institutions using both a matching type and a spatial regression discontinuity approach we show that differences in countrywide institutional structures across the national border do not explain within ethnicity differences in economic performance as captured by satellite images of light density the average non effect of national institutions on ethnic development masks considerable heterogeneity partially driven by the diminishing role of national institutions in areas further from the capital cities

women s suffrage political responsiveness and child survival in american history women s choices appear to emphasize child welfare more than those of men this paper presents new evidence on how suffrage rights for american women helped children to benefit from the scientific breakthroughs of the bacteriological revolution consistent with standard models of electoral competition suffrage laws were followed by immediate shifts in legislative behavior and large sudden increases in local public health spending this growth in public health spending fueled large scale door to door hygiene campaigns and child mortality declined by 8 15 or 20 000 annual child deaths nationwide as cause specific reductions occurred exclusively among infectious childhood killers sensitive to hygienic conditions

finn kydland and edward prescott s contribution to the theory of macroeconomic policy finn kydland and ed prescott have transformed the field of macroeconomics with two path breaking contributions one is the idea of time inconsistency of optimal policy rules the second is their analysis of business fluctuations both contributions have profoundly changed the way we think about macroeconomic problems both in academic research and in practical policymaking but while their analysis of business fluctuations is the result of a research effort that lasted more than two decades the idea of time inconsistency of policy stems from a single paper kydland and prescott 1977 after writing that paper kydland and prescott have not returned to this topic except in a methodological paper on capital taxation see kydland and prescott 1980 yet the idea was so important and powerful as to open up a whole new line of research in macroeconomics that changed the way we study and implement economic policy rarely has a single paper had such a profound effect on economic research and the practice of economic policymaking in this paper i discuss the idea of time inconsistency how it was formulated by kydland and prescott and why its implications are so important section ii sets the stage and places the contribution by kydland and prescott in the context of the theory of macroeconomic policy section iii analyses earlier formulations of the notion of time inconsistency section iv summarises kydland and prescott s contribution and its main implications section v briefly considers their impact on subsequent research and section vi concludes

the effect of female education on fertility and infant health evidence from school entry policies using exact date of birth this paper uses age at school entry policies to identify the effect of female education on fertility and infant health we focus on sharp contrasts in schooling fertility and infant health between women born just before and after the school entry date school entry policies affect female education and the quality of a woman s mate and have generally small but possibly heterogeneous effects on fertility and infant health we argue that school entry policies manipulate primarily the education of young women at risk of dropping out of school

has democratization reduced infant mortality in sub saharan africa evidence from micro data does democracy help babies survive in sub saharan africa by using retrospective fertility surveys conducted in 28 african countries i compare the survival of infants born to the same mother before and after democratization to disentangle the effect of democracy from that of changes in population characteristics which is infeasible with country level statistics on infant mortality i find that infant mortality falls by 1 2 percentage points 12 of the sample mean after democratization in the post cold war period relevant aspects of democracy appear to be the combination of multiparty elections and leadership change

the baby boom and baby bust what caused the baby boom and can it be explained within the context of the secular decline in fertility that has occurred over the last 200 years the hypothesis is that a the secular decline in fertility is due to the relentless rise in real wages that increased the opportunity cost of having children b the baby boom is explained by an atypical burst of technological progress in the household sector that occurred in the middle of the last century this lowered the cost of having children a model is developed in an attempt to account quantitatively for both the baby boom and bust

fertility and childlessness in the united states we develop a theory of fertility distinguishing its intensive margin from its extensive margin the deep parameters are identified using facts from the 1990 us census i fertility of mothers decreases with education ii childlessness exhibits a u shaped relationship with education iii the relationship between marriage rates and education is hump shaped for women and increasing for men we estimate that 2 5 percent of women were childless because of poverty and 8 1 percent because of high opportunity cost of childrearing over time historical trends in total factor productivity and in education led to a u shaped response in childlessness rates while fertility of mothers decreased

family labor supply and asset returns abstract we study how shocks to wages and asset prices affect consumption and labor supply decisions of two earner households in a life cycle framework with housing and flexible preferences we provide a micro foundation of the wealth effects on consumption and labor supply we find evidence for non separability between non durable consumption housing services and hours of work the results also highlight the importance of family labor supply in understanding how households respond to shocks to financial and housing markets

the quiet revolution that transformed women s employment education and family the modern economic role of women emerged in four phases the first three were evolutionary the last was revolutionary phase i occurred from the late nineteenth century to the 1920s phase ii was from 1930 to 1950 phase iii extended from 1950 to the late 1970s and phase iv the quiet revolution began in the late 1970s and is still ongoing three aspects of women s choices distinguish the evolutionary from the revolutionary phases horizon identity and decision making the evolutionary phases are apparent in time series data on labor force participation the revolutionary phase is discernible using time series evidence on women s more predictable attachment to the workplace greater identity with career and better ability to make joint decisions with their spouses each of these series has a sharp break or inflection point signifying social and economic change these changes moreover coincide by birth cohort or period the relationship between the development of modern labor economics and the reality of women s changing economic role is explored the paper concludes by assessing whether the revolution has stalled or is being reversed women who graduated college in the early 1980s did not opt out but recent cohorts are too young to evaluate this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital abstract this paper is concerned with the structure and time consistency of optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital in a dynamic context optimal taxation means distributing tax distortions over time in a welfare maximizing way for a barter economy our main finding is that with debt commitments of sufficiently rich maturity structure an optimal policy if one exists is time consistent in a monetary economy the idea of optimal taxation must be broadened to include an inflation tax and we find that time consistency does not carry over an optimal inflation tax requires commitment by rules in a sense that has no counterpart in the dynamic theory of ordinary excise taxes the reason time consistency fails in a monetary economy is that nominal assets should from a welfare maximizing point of view always be taxed away via an immediate inflation in a kind of capital levy this emerges as a new possibility when money is introduced into an economy without capital

do labor market opportunities affect young women s work and family decisions experimental evidence from india do labor market opportunities for women affect marriage and fertility decisions we provided three years of recruiting services to help young women in randomly selected rural indian villages get jobs in the business process outsourcing industry because the industry was so new at the time of the study there was almost no awareness of these jobs allowing us in effect to exogenously increase women s labor force opportunities from the perspective of rural households we find that young women in treatment villages were significantly less likely to get married or have children during this period choosing instead to enter the labor market or obtain more schooling or postschool training women also report wanting to have fewer children and to work more steadily throughout their lifetime consistent with increased aspirations for a career copyright 2012 oxford university press

education hiv and early fertility experimental evidence from kenya a seven year randomized evaluation suggests education subsidies reduce adolescent girls dropout pregnancy and marriage but not sexually transmitted infection sti the government s hiv curriculum which stresses abstinence until marriage does not reduce pregnancy or sti both programs combined reduce sti more but cut dropout and pregnancy less than education subsidies alone these results are inconsistent with a model of schooling and sexual behavior in which both pregnancy and sti are determined by one factor unprotected sex but consistent with a two factor model in which choices between committed and casual relationships also affect these outcomes

how deep are the roots of economic development the empirical literature on economic growth and development has moved from the study of proximate determinants to the analysis of ever deeper more fundamental factors rooted in long term history a growing body of new empirical work focuses on the measurement and estimation of the effects of historical variables on contemporary income by explicitly taking into account the ancestral composition of current populations the evidence suggests that economic development is affected by traits that have been transmitted across generations over the very long run this article surveys this new literature and provides a framework to discuss different channels through which intergenerationally transmitted characteristics may impact economic development biologically via genetic or epigenetic transmission and culturally via behavioral or symbolic transmission an important issue is whether historically transmitted traits have affected development through their direct impact on productivity or have operated indirectly as barriers to the diffusion of productivityenhancing innovations across populations jel j11 o33 o47 z13

women s schooling and fertility under low female labor force participation evidence from mobility restrictions in israel this paper studies the effect of mothers education on fertility in a mostly muslim population with very low female labor force participation we first show that a removal of travel restrictions on israeli arabs had raised female education and had almost no effect on male education next we show that it lowered fertility rates among exposed women which we interpret as an effect of female education on fertility we rule out labor force participation age at marriage marriage and divorce rates and spousal labor force participation and earnings as confounding factors or as mechanisms but find that spousal education and children quality play a role in the fertility decline we provide a variety of robustness tests that rule out other channels by which the removal of the travel restrictions could have affected fertility directly these results are particularly interesting and important for the context of many muslim countries with low rates of female labor force participation

women s liberation what s in it for men the nineteenth century witnessed dramatic improvements in the legal rights of married women given that these changes took place long before women gained the right to vote they amounted to a voluntary renouncement of power by men in this paper we investigate men s incentives for sharing power with women in our model women s legal rights set the marital bargaining power of husbands and wives we show that men face a tradeoff between the rights they want for their own wives namely none and the rights of other women in the economy men prefer other men s wives to have rights because men care about their own daughters and because an expansion of women s rights increases educational investments in children we show that men may agree to relinquish some of their power once technological change increases the importance of human capital we corroborate our argument with historical evidence on the expansion of women s rights in england and the united states

collective labor supply and welfare the paper develops a general collective model of household labor supply in which agents are characterized by their own possibly altruistic preferences and household decisions are only assumed to be pareto efficient an alternative interpretation is that there are two stages in the internal decision process agents first share nonlabor income according to some given sharing rule then each one optimally chooses his or her own labor supply and consumption this setting is shown to generate testable restrictions on labor supplies moreover the observation of labor supply behavior is sufficient for recovering individual preferences and the sharing rule up to a constant finally the traditional tools of welfare analysis can be adapted to the new setting

the distribution of wealth and fiscal policy in economies with finitely lived agents we study the dynamics of the distribution of wealth in an overlapping generation economy with finitely lived agents and intergenerational transmission of wealth financial markets are incomplete exposing agents to both labor and capital income risk we show that the stationary wealth distribution is a pareto distribution in the right tail and that it is capital income risk rather than labor income that drives the properties of the right tail of the wealth distribution we also study analytically the dependence of the distribution of wealth of wealth inequality in particular on various fiscal policy instruments like capital income taxes and estate taxes and on different degrees of social mobility we show that capital income and estate taxes can significantly reduce wealth inequality as do institutions favoring social mobility finally we calibrate the economy to match the lorenz curve of the wealth distribution of the u s economy

optimal interest rate smoothing this paper considers the desirability of the observed tendency of central banks to adjust interest rates only gradually in response to changes in economic conditions it shows in the context of a simple model of optimizing private sector behaviour that assignment of an interest rate smoothing objective to the central bank may be desirable even when reduction of the magnitude of interest rate changes is not a social objective in itself this is because a response of policy to irrelevant lagged variables may be desirable owing to the way it steers private sector expectations of future policy

efficient intra household allocations a general characterization and empirical tests the neoclassical theory of demand applies to individuals yet in empirical work it is usually taken as valid for households with many members this paper explores what the theory of individuals implies for households that have more than one member we make minimal assumptions about how the individual members of the household resolve conflicts all we assume is that however decisions are made outcomes are efficient we refer to this as the collective setting we show that in the collective setting household demands must satisfy a symmetry and rank condition on the slutsky matrix we also present some further results on the effects on demands of variables that do not modify preferences but that do affect how decisions are made we apply our theory to a series of surveys of household expenditures from canada the tests of the usual symmetry conditions are rejected for two person households but not for one person households we also show that income pooling is rejected for two person households we then test for our collective setting conditions on the couples data none of the collective setting restrictions are rejected we conclude that the collective setting is a plausible and tractable next step to take in the analysis of household behavior

household bargaining over fertility theory and evidence from malaysia we develop and test a model of household bargaining over fertility when transfers between spouses are possible the model makes precise how the fertility preferences of each spouse translate into fertility outcomes we show this depends on whether or not spouses can commit to their future actions within marriage if couples bargain with commitment fertility outcomes take account of both spouses fertility preferences and do not depend on the threat point in marital bargaining if couples bargain without commitment the influence of each spouse s fertility preference on fertility outcomes depends on the relevant threat point in marital bargaining and the distribution of bargaining power we test the models using household data from the malaysia family life survey this data set contains information on each spouse s desired fertility level as well as fertility outcomes we exploit differences in threat points in marital bargaining across ethnic groups to help identify the underlying bargaining model the evidence suggests couples bargain without commitment

fertility at work children and women s labor market outcomes in urban ghana abstract while it is commonly assumed that fertility decreases female labor supply i show theoretically that fertility can increase female labor supply if returns to financial inputs in children are sufficiently high compared to returns to time investments using six rounds of a panel survey from urban ghana i find evidence of countervailing effects behind a net zero effect of young children on women s hours of work labor supply on the extensive margin drops but women who remain in the labor force increase their hours in response to a child women s labor supply particularly increases in response to a young child if there are older siblings or other adults in the household by contrast men s labor supply does not change in response to young children

the baby boom and world war ii a macroeconomic analysis we argue that one major cause of the u s postwar baby boom was the rise in female labor supply during world war ii we develop a quantitative dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous fertility and female labor force participation decisions we use the model to assess the impact of the war on female labor supply and fertility in the decades following the war for the war generation of women the high demand for female labor brought about by mobilization leads to an increase in labor supply that persists after the war as a result younger women who reach adulthood in the 1950s face increased labor market competition which impels them to exit the labor market and start having children earlier the effect is amplified by the rise in taxes necessary to pay down wartime government debt in our calibrated model the war generates a substantial baby boom followed by a baby bust

intra household resource allocation an inferential approach if household income is pooled and then allocated to maximize welfare then income under the control of mothers and fathers should have the same impact on demand with survey data on family health and nutrition in brazil the equality of parental income effects is rejected unearned income in the hands of a mother has a bigger effect on her family s health than income under the control of a father for child survival probabilities the effect is almost twenty times bigger the common preference or neoclassical model of the household is rejected if unearned income is measured with error and income is pooled then the ratio of maternal to paternal income effects should be the same equality of the ratios cannot be rejected there is also evidence for gender preference mothers prefer to devote resources to improving the nutritional status of their daughters fathers to sons

more power to the pill the impact of contraceptive freedom on women s life cycle labor supply the release of enovid in 1960 the first birth control pill afforded u s women unprecedented freedom to plan childbearing and their careers this paper uses plausibly exogenous variation in state consent laws to evaluate the causal impact of the pill on the timing of first births and extent and intensity of women s labor force participation the results suggest that legal access to the pill before age 21 significantly reduced the likelihood of a first birth before age 22 increased the number of women in the paid labor force and raised the number of annual hours worked

collective labour supply with children we extend the collective model of household behavior to allow for the existence of public consumption we show how this model allows the analysis of welfare consequences of policies aimed at changing the distribution of power within the household our setting provides a conceptual framework for addressing issues linked to the targeting of specific benefits or taxes we also show that the observation of the labor supplies and the household demand for the public good allow one to identify individual welfare and the decision process this requires either a separability assumption or the presence of a distribution factor

household bargaining and excess fertility an experimental study in zambia we posit that household decision making over fertility is characterized by moral hazard due to the fact that most contraception can only be perfectly observed by the woman using an experiment in zambia that varied whether women were given access to contraceptives alone or with their husbands we find that women given access with their husbands were 19 less likely to seek family planning services 25 less likely to use concealable contraception and 27 percent more likely to give birth however women given access to contraception alone report a lower subjective well being suggesting a psychosocial cost of making contraceptives more concealable

wealth inequality in the united states since 1913 evidence from capitalized income tax data this paper combines income tax returns with flow of funds data to estimate the distribution of household wealth in the united states since 1913 we estimate wealth by capitalizing the incomes reported by individual taxpayers accounting for assets that do not generate taxable income we successfully test our capitalization method in three micro datasets where we can observe both income and wealth the survey of consumer finance linked estate and income tax returns and foundations tax records wealth concentration has followed a u shaped evolution over the last 100 years it was high in the beginning of the twentieth century fell from 1929 to 1978 and has continuously increased since then the rise of wealth inequality is almost entirely due to the rise of the top 0 1 wealth share from 7 in 1979 to 22 in 2012 a level almost as high as in 1929 the bottom 90 wealth share rst increased up to the mid 1980s and then steadily declined the increase in wealth concentration is due to the surge of top incomes combined with an increase in saving rate inequality top wealth holders are younger today than in the 1960s and earn a higher fraction of total labor income in the economy we explain how our ndings can be reconciled with survey of consumer finances and estate tax data

fertility transitions along the extensive and intensive margins this paper examines the fertility transition through a new lens the extensive margin parents with high levels of children might substitute quality for quantity as the constraints on quality relax or those on quantity tighten however along the extensive margin the quantity quality trade off cannot operate at low levels of fertility we expect quality and quantity to be essential complements we apply these insights to a large school construction program in the american south during the early 20th century the rosenwald rural schools initiative we find that increased schooling opportunities lead to reductions in fertility among women with high fertility levels while at the same time inducing higher levels of fertility among women with low levels of fertility the magnitude of the fertility changes induced in the parent generation is however small compared to the changes in fertility induced by the rosenwald intervention among women that were themselves treated by the intervention the evidence from the rosenwald intervention therefore suggests that changes in female opportunity costs induced by increased educational attainment might be among the most important driving forces of the fertility transition

polygyny fertility and savings sub saharan africa has a high incidence of polygyny it is also the poorest region of the world in this paper i ask whether banning polygyny could play any role for development using a quantitative model of polygyny i find that enforcing monogamy lowers fertility shrinks the spousal age gap and reverses the direction of marriage payments polygyny leads to high bride prices to ration women which makes buying wives and selling daughters a good investment thus crowding out investment in physical assets for reasonable parameter values i find that banning polygyny decreases fertility by 40 percent increases savings by 70 percent and increases output per capita by 170 percent

heterogeneity in returns to wealth and the measurement of wealth inequality lacking a long time series on the assets of the very wealthy saez and zucman 2015 use us tax records to obtain estimates of wealth holdings by capitalizing asset income from tax returns they document marked upward trends in wealth concentration we use data on tax returns and actual wealth holdings from tax records for the whole norwegian population to test the robustness of the methodology we document that measures of wealth based on the capitalization approach can lead to misleading conclusions about the level and the dynamics of wealth inequality if returns are heterogeneous and even moderately correlated with wealth

how women s rights affect fertility evidence from nigeria using data from the demographic and health surveys dhs this paper estimates the effect on fertility of a legal reform in nigeria in 1999 that lowered the value of women s testimony in court i find that the yearly probability of giving birth of women exposed to the reform did not change in general for women exposed to the enforced reform this probability increased by at least 0 04 using stated preferences on fertility i find that fertility increased among women who want fewer children than their husband does but decreased among women who want more children than their husband does i examine the hypothesis that the reform increased for women the value of being married and hence decreased their intra household bargaining power consequently shifting fertility decisions in the direction of husbands preferences jel j13 j18 k10