do parental time investments react to changes in child s skills and health abstract parental time investment decisions have been found to have important effects on child development however little is known about the response of parents to changes in their child s human capital across time using the longitudinal study of australian children we measure time investments considering the time young children spend with or without parents in different activities by adopting a child fixed effect instrumental variable estimation we find that parents reinforce for high socio emotional skills by spending more time socialising with their child and compensate for low cognitive skills by increasing the time the child spends in learning activities

income velocity and the variability of money growth evidence from less developed countries this paper examines whether the variability of money growth caused changes in income velocity of money in 30 less developed countries time series data show year to year variations in income velocity of money in these countries for the 1961 1990 period empirical results based on causality but complemented by variance decomposition tests show that money growth is the most important determinant in explaining the variability in income velocity in at least 20 of the 30 developing countries examined in this study in addition the causality results show that inflation rate granger causes income velocity of money in 21 countries but the variance decomposition results show inflation rate to be relatively more important in explaining the variability of velocity in eight countries similarly while real income granger causes velocity of money in 18 countries the results of the variance decomposition tests show real income to be relatively more important as a determinant of income velocity in two countries over

early maternal time investment and early child outcomes using large longitudinal survey data from the uk millennium cohort study this article estimates the relationship between maternal time inputs and early child development we find that maternal time is a quantitatively important determinant of skill formation and that its effect declines with child age there is evidence of long term effects of early maternal time inputs on later outcomes especially in the case of cognitive skill development in the case of non cognitive development the evidence of this long term impact disappears when we account for skill persistence

exact likelihood computation for nonlinear dsge models with heteroskedastic innovations abstract phenomena such as the great moderation have increased the attention of macroeconomists towards models where shock processes are not log normal this paper studies a class of discrete time rational expectations models where the variance of exogenous innovations is subject to stochastic regime shifts we first show that up to a second order approximation using perturbation methods regime switching in the variances has an impact only on the intercept coefficients of the decision rules we then demonstrate how to derive the exact model likelihood for the second order approximation of the solution when there are as many shocks as observable variables we illustrate the applicability of the proposed solution and estimation methods in the case of a small dsge model

the costs of low birth weight birth weight has emerged as the leading indicator of infant health and welfare and the central focus of infant health policy this is because low birth weight lbw infants experience severe health and developmental difficulties that can impose enormous costs on society but would the prevention of lbw generate equally sizable cost savings and health improvements estimates of the return to lbwprevention from cross sectional associations may be biased by omitted variables that cannot be influenced by policy such as genetic factors to address this we compare the hospital costs health at birth and infant mortality rates between heavier and lighter infants from all twin pairs born in the united states we also examine the effect of maternal smoking during pregnancy the leading risk factor for lbw in the united states on health among singleton births after controlling for detailed background characteristics both analyses imply substantially smaller effects of lbw than previously thought suggesting two possibilities 1 existing estimates overstate the true costs and consequences of lbw by at least a factor of four and by as much as a factor of 20 or 2 different lbw preventing interventions have different health and cost consequences implying that policy efforts that presume a single return to reducing lbw will necessarily be suboptimal

economic status and health in childhood the origins of the gradient the well known positive association between health and income in adulthood has antecedents in childhood not only is children s health positively related to household income but the relationship between household income and children s health becomes more pronounced as children age part of the relationship can be explained by the arrival and impact of chronic conditions children from lower income households with chronic conditions have worse health than do those from higher income households the adverse health effects of lower income accumulate over children s lives part of the intergenerational transmission of socioeconomic status may work through the impact of parents income on children s health

from the cradle to the labor market the effect of birth weight on adult outcomes lower birth weight babies have worse outcomes both short run in terms of one year mortality rates and longer run in terms of educational attainment and earnings however recent research has called into question whether birth weight itself is important or whether it simply reflects other hard to measure characteristics by applying within twin techniques using an unusually rich dataset from norway we examine the effects of birth weight on both short run and long run outcomes for the same cohorts we find that birth weight does matter despite short run twin fixed effects estimates that are much smaller than ols estimates the effects on longer run outcomes such as adult height iq earnings and education are significant and similar in magnitude to ols estimates

schools skills and synapses american society is polarizing proportionately more american youth are graduating from college than ever before at the same time american born youth are graduating from high school at lower rates than 40 years ago this paper reviews and interprets these trends the origins of inequality are examined and policies to alleviate it are analyzed families play a powerful role in shaping adult outcomes the accident of birth is a major source of inequality recent research by cunha and heckman 2007a 2008b shows that about half of the inequality in the present value of lifetime earnings is due to factors determined by age 18 compared to 50 years ago relatively more american children are being born into disadvantaged families where investments in children are smaller than in advantaged families policies that supplement the child rearing resources available to disadvantaged families reduce inequality and raise productivity

the family gap for young women in the united states and britain can maternity leave make a difference in the united states and britain there is a family gap between the wages of mothers and other women differential returns to marital and parental status explain 40 50 of the gender gap another 30 40 is explained by women s lower levels of work experience and lower returns to experience taking advantage of quasi experiments in job protected maternity leave in the united states and britain this article finds that women who had leave coverage and returned to work after childbirth received a wage premium that offset the negative wage effects of children

can higher cigarette taxes improve birth outcomes abstract this study examines whether higher state cigarette taxes can be used to improve birth outcomes data on the outcomes of interest are taken from the 1989 1992 natality detail files generating a sample of roughly 10 5 million births the results suggest that smoking participation among pregnant women declines and average birth weights rise when excise taxes are increased these results can be used to form an instrumental variables estimate of the impact of smoking on birth weight this estimate is remarkably close to numbers from a random assignment clinical trial the smoking participation price elasticity is estimated to be 0 5

euro area inflation persistence in an estimated nonlinear dsge model abstract we estimate the approximate non linear solution of a small dsge model on euro area data using the conditional particle filter to compute the model likelihood our results are consistent with previous findings based on simulated data suggesting that this approach delivers sharper inference compared to the estimation of the linearised model we also show that the non linear model can account for richer economic dynamics the impulse responses to structural shocks vary depending on initial conditions selected within our estimation sample

combining micro and macro data in microeconometric models or panel samples to improve accuracy of estimation in this paper we show how to do this efficiently we show that the gains from use of marginal information can be substantial we also discuss how to test the compatibility of sample and marginal information

monetary policy shifts and long term interest rates the pure expectations hypothesis peh serves as the benchmark model for the relationship between yields on bonds of different maturities when coupled with rational expectations however empirical renderings of the model fail miserably i explore the possibility that failure to account for changes in monetary policy regime explains much of the failure of the peh estimating changing monetary regimes in conjunction with the peh significantly improves its performance the predicted spread between the long and short rates is highly correlated with the actual spread the standard deviation of the theoretical spread is nearly identical to that of the actual spread

inequality at birth some causes and consequences recent research shows that health at birth is affected by many factors including maternal education behaviors and participation in social programs in turn endowments at birth are predictive of adult outcomes and of the outcomes of future generations exposure to environmental pollution is one potential determinant of health at birth that has received increasing attention a large literature outside of economics advocates for environmental justice and argues that poor and minority families are disproportionately exposed to environmental hazards i provide new evidence on this question showing that children born to less educated and minority mothers are more likely to be exposed to pollution in utero and that white college educated mothers are particularly responsive to changes in environmental amenities i estimate that differences in exposure to toxic releases may explain 6 of the gap in incidence of low birth weight between infants of white college educated mothers and infants of black high school dropout mothers this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

random walks and monetary velocity in the g 7 countries new evidence from a multiple variance ratio test the random walk hypothesis rwh of the velocity of money has often been supported for the developed economies the literature is however far from unanimous this paper employs the most recent methodological advances in testing for random walks the multiple variance ratio test to re examine the behaviour of the velocity of money in the g 7 countries monetary velocity is computed as the ratio of nominal income to contemporaneous money stock under alternative definitions of income and money the empirical results from the present study do not support the rwh in most of the g 7 countries with the us m1 and m2 velocities as exceptions furthermore the results show that the rwh is sensitive to either the definitions of monetary velocity or the sample period of study

intrafamily resource allocations a dynamic structural model of birth weight using large american and british survey data this paper provides structural estimates of the production functions for birth weight and fetal growth in addition to maternal smoking we estimate the impact of when a mother stops work which has not been considered in the literature mothers work interruptions of up to 3 months before birth have a positive effect on birth outcomes especially among british children parental behavior appears to respond to child idiosyncratic endowments in a way that suggests that parents have inequity aversion concerns evidence in favor of inequity aversion emerges also from the analysis of breast feeding decisions

birth spacing and sibling inequality asymmetric information within the family this paper formulates a dynamic model of birth spacing incorporating uncertainty about and heterogeneity in birth outcomes and joint production to assess how the spacing of children responds to exogenous shocks in birth outcomes estimation technics are developed that use assumptions about the constraints on the information available to parental decision makers associated with the sequential nature of childbearing ignored in static models of intra household behavior section 1 examines the technology of birth spacing and its consequences for the level and distribution of child outcomes and resources in section 2 the model compares alternative estimation technics in section 3 data from a probability sample of us white married couples are used to describe intrafamily variation in birth outcomes and spacing and to test for heterogeneity bias the results in section 4 suggest that across family heterogeneity bias may be less important than within family heterogeneity bias in estimates of the effects of birth order and timing patterns of births on health results from family fixed effect of sibling models of child quality determination that ignore intrafamily substitution may be misleading section 5 estimates how birth outcome endowments and information on gender are used to estimate how differences in them affect subsequent birth timing decisions and sibling inequality results suggest that 1 the birth of 1st born children tends to be delayed among families with high income husbands highly educated parents superior health endowment or high tastes for health investments 2 the proximity of the birth of the 2nd child to that of the 1st child is a positive function of the quality of the 1st born and 3 the spacing and existence of a 3rd child is significantly related to the birth outcomes sex composition and sex ordering of the 1st and 2nd children

estimating the effect of smoking on birth outcomes using a matched panel data approach estimating the casual effect of smoking on birth outcomes is difficult since omitted unobserved variables are likely to be correlated with a mother s decision to smoke while some previous work has dealt with this endogeneity problem by using instrumental variables this paper instead attempts to estimate the smoking effect from panel data i e data on mothers with multiple births panel data sets are constructed with matching algorithms applied to federal natality data the fixed effects regressions which control for individual heterogeneity yield significantly different results from ordinary least squares and previous instrumental variable approaches the potential inconsistency caused by false matches and other violations of the fixed effects strict exogeneity assumption are considered copyright 2006 john wiley sons ltd

estimating a household production function heterogeneity the demand for health inputs and their effects on birth weight the household production literature emphasizes that technical or biological processes condition input selection by households in their production activities along with prices and income exogenous variations in health to the extent that they are perceived by individuals heterogeneity lead to correlations between inputs and health outcomes that cannot be used to derive causal conclusions therefore estimates of health technology must be obtained from a behavioral model in which health inputs are themselves choices consistent estimates are reported of the effect of endogenous inputs such as medical care smoking and fertility on birth weight and fetal growth in the presence of health heterogeneity

welfare and child health the link between afdc participation and birth weight the stated goal of the aid for families with dependent children program is to improve the well being of children in poor families the program has come under considerable attack in recent years from critics who argue that participation in afdc is associated with maternal behaviors that are bad for children we investigate this question using birth weight as a measure of child health we find that participation in afdc during pregnancy is associated with delays in obtaining prenatal care smoking and drinking during pregnancy younger maternal age at the birth and ultimately with lower birth weights even when observable characteristics of the mother are controlled for however we show that when unobservable characteristics of the mother are controlled for there is actually a positive association between participation in afdc and the birth weights of children of white women from poor families we find no association between birth weight and maternal participation in afdc among black children

heterogeneity intrafamily distribution and child health data were collected in candelaria colombia from 1968 to 1974 to evaluate the impact of child health services in all households in which there were any children under 6 years old to estimate the birth outcome equation and post birth health equation a subsample of 109 households was selected in which at least 2 children were born during the 7 year program the sample size was 238 children estimates of the parameters of the normalized weight equations were obtained using seemingly unrelated regression sur the family fixed effects procedure ffe and the lagged instrumental fixed effects technique life an illustrative dynamic model of intra family allocative behavior incorporating variations in individual child characteristics was formulated to show how both the timing of childbearing and child specific allocations vary with both family and child specific health endowments the information restrictions were used in the model associated with the sequencing of births to develop an estimation procedure which takes into account both intrafamily and interfamily heterogeneity longitudinal data on children and households compared estimates of the effects of birth order birth spacing and timing per capita food consumption inoculations and the incidence of breast feeding on the age standardized weight of children at 2 life cycle points at birth and within 6 months after birth the estimates indicated that healthier families for given income had more children and more closely spaced children but consumed no more food per capita than did less well endowed families these results imply that families behave so as to reduce inherent interfamily inequalities in child health however while the estimates suggest that the healthier the prior surviving child the more quickly parents are likely to have a subsequent child parents are also more likely to breastfeed an inherently healthier child