technological innovation and long waves one who has examined the dynamics of capitalist economies over long historical periods can doubt that they experience significant long term variations in their aggregate perform ance the question is whether these long term variations are more than the outcome of a summation of random events and further whether they exhibit recurrent temporal regu larities that are sufficiently well behaved to call them long waves in recent years there has been a strong resurgence of interest in such long term movements since their existence could provide a coherent explanation for the poor performance of capitalist economies over the past decade 1 this renewed interest also reflects a search for alternative ways of explaining the unbalanced nature of the growth processes of mature capitalist economies that go uncaptured by the solow swan paradigm in its concern with equilibrium dynamics and steady states of one two or multisector representations of the economy the study of price and output swings of extended duration has a long tradition having initially drawn the interest of both marxist and non marxist writers around the turn of the century 2 yet it was the work of kondratiev 1925 which constituted the first system atic attempt to confirm such movements with data that included not only prices interest rates and wage series but foreign trade industrial production and consumption for france britain and to a lesser extent the us kondratiev concluded that the data suggested the

corporate debt maturity profiles abstract we study a novel aspect of a firm s capital structure namely the profile of its debt maturity dates in a simple theoretical framework we show that the dispersion of debt maturities constitutes an important dimension of capital structure choice driven by firm characteristics and debt rollover risk guided by these predictions we establish two main empirical results first using an exogenous shock to rollover risk we document a significant increase in maturity dispersion for firms that need to roll over maturing debt second we find strong support that maturities of newly issued debt are influenced by pre existing maturity profiles

stagnation theory and stagnation policy following the traditions of kalecki and keynes we are led to believe that a high long term rate of growth is necessary to establish an adequate use of capacity and full employment because somehow our economy is rather inflexibly adjusted to such high long term rates of growth in this line is harrod s theory harrod 1939 1948 as well as my own maturity and stagnation steindl 1952 both explain the secular depression of the pre war decade in these terms the economy is unable to adjust to low growth rates because its savings propensity is adapted to a high one

limited liability and incentive contracting with ex ante action choices abstract this article examines a principal agent model of financial contracting in which a risk neutral entrepreneur agent makes an unobservable ex ante effort choice while employing the investment funds of a risk neutral investor principal the key innovation is that the investment contract is subject to statutory liability limits given these liability limits two settings are considered one in which the investor payoff function is also constrained to be monotonically nondecreasing in firm profit and another in which no such monotonic contract constraint is imposed in the former case a standard debt contract is shown to emerge and a first best effort choice is not achieved in the latter setting the optimum is characterized by a live or die payoff function and a first best effort level may or may not be realized

a review of o rourke and williamson s globalization and history the evolution of a nineteenth century atlantic economy much of the comparative economic history of the nineteenth century focuses on the spread of the industrial revolution from britain incomes converged in this view as the transfer of superior technology raised incomes in the periphery in globalization and history kevin o rourke and jeffrey williamson challenge this technological approach arguing that neoclassical effects of trade and factor supply changes provide more insight increased trade stimulated by falling transportation costs and factor movements caused prices of locally scarce factors to fall and promoted factor price convergence

the organisation of innovation collaboration cooperation and multifunctional groups in uk and german manufacturing marked differences exist between the institutional and social context for innovation in the uk and germany the question addressed here is how these different contexts affect the objectives and organisation of innovation in uk and german manufacturing in particular the paper examines the extent to which uk and german plants engage in inter plant collaboration and cooperation and multifunctional working as part of their innovative activity and explores the reasons for differences in these patterns of involvement the investigation is based on a large scale comparative survey of manufacturing plants in the two countries in germany institutional and social norms are found to encourage collaborative inter plant innovation but aspects of the german skills training and industrial relations systems make the adoption of more flexible internal systems more difficult in the uk by contrast the more adversarial nature of inter firm relations makes it more difficult to establish external collaborations based on mutual trust but less restrictive labour market structures make it easier for uk plants to adopt multifunctional working this is linked to differences in attitudes to the property rights and transaction cost problems inherent in innovation

the rate of surplus value in the postwar us economy a critique of weisskopf s estimates the rate of surplus value is one of the three key variables in marx s theory of capitalist crises along with the rate of profit and the composition of capital marx expected a secular tendency for the rate of surplus value to increase owing to the rise in labour productivity under capitalism in marx s theory the necessary condition for an increase in the rate of surplus value is that the productivity of labour increases faster than the average real wage marx argued that in general this condition would be fulfilled because of downward pressure on wages exerted by a large and growing reserve army of unem ployed workers marx 1977 chs 17 and 25 moseley 1982 ch 4 marx argued further that this increase in the rate of surplus value would delay but not prevent the tendency of the rate of profit to fall owing to a rise in the composition of capital marx 1982 part 3 weisskopf 1979 argued that the profit share of total income is a reasonable proxy for marx s concept of the rate of surplus value p 343 he estimated the profit share in the non financial corporate business nfcb sector of the us economy over the period 1949 1975 1 showing a secular decline of 28 over the period of study p 351 table 2 contrary to marx s expectation of a secular increase in the rate of surplus value 2 however there is a fundamental theoretical problem with weisskopf s estimates namely that they do not take into account marx s distinction between productive labour and unproductive labour a number of authors have argued that marx s distinction between productive labour and unproductive labour is an integral part of his theory of value and surplus value and that his concepts of surplus value and variable capital the

technological and organizational change in automobile production spatial implications 1 schoenberger e 1987 technological and organizational change in automobile production spatial implications reg studies 21 199 214 the origins and implications of recent technological and organizational changes in the automobile industry are examined the nature of competition in the industry is linked to the adoption of flexible automation technologies in production this it is argued may foster the spatial re integration of production in contrast to earlier decentralizing trends an effect that may be reinforced by the move to just in time principles of production organization implications for regional development are considered with cautions stressed concerning the meaning of spatial proximity and the firm s ability to construct agglomeration economies away from traditional industrial centres schoenberger e 1987 changements technologiques et organisationnels dans la production automobile implications spatiales reg studies 21 199 214 les origines et les implications des recents changem

the relationships between science technologies and their industrial exploitation an illustration through the myths and realities of the so called european paradox abstract this paper discusses first the properties of scientific and technological knowledge and the institutions supporting its generation and its economic applications the evidence supports the broad interpretation that we call the stanford yale sussex synthesis second such patterns yield important implications with respect to the so called european paradox i e the conjecture that eu countries play a leading global role in terms of top level scientific output but lag behind in the ability of converting this strength into wealth generating innovations some descriptive evidence shows that contrary to the paradox conjecture europe s weaknesses reside both in its system of scientific research and in a relatively weak industry the final part of the paper identifies a few normative implications much less emphasis should be put on various types of networking and much more on policy measures aimed at strengthening both frontier research and european corporate actors

business cycles and long run growth in this survey we discuss the effect of macroeconomic fluctuations on long run growth from both a theoretical and empirical perspective we emphasize the opportunity cost approach which states that firms will intertemporally substitute productivity enhancing activities for regular production activity during recessions we provide aggregate evidence in favor of the opportunity cost approach copyright 1997 by oxford university press

sources procedures and microeconomic effects of innovation fabio arcangeli paul david frank engelman christopher freeman massimo moggi richard nelson luigi orsenigo nathan rosenberg michele salvati g n von tunzelman two anonymous referees and the participants at the meeting of the committee on distribution growth and technical progress of the italian national research council cnr rome november 16 1985 have helped with various redraftings a particularly grateful acknowledgment is for the insightful and patient help of moses abramovitz this work has been undertaken at the science policy research unit spru university of sussex as part of the research program of the designated research centre sponsored by the economic and social research council esrc earlier support to the research that led to this paper by the italian national research council cnr is also gratefully acknowledged the statistical research has been undertaken with the assistance of stephano brioschi ilaria fornari and giovannu prennushi

demand and innovation schmookler re examined schmookler s demand pull hypothesis implying that innovation is a function of market demand has been widely accepted re reading schmookler s invention and economic growth we discover a statistical inadequacy re estimating his cross section results in a different way we find somewhat lower coefficients moreover the direction of causality appears to be far from obvious an independent cross sectional test of the schmookler hypothesis in the netherlands based on r d instead of patent data shows similar results the relationship between indicators of demand and innovation turns out to be generally weaker but in most cases still significant and the results suggest that there is a simultaneous relationship between demand and innovation the latter may be explained by the concept of the innovation multiplier which has implications for macro economic modelling 1 re reading schmookler schmookler s 13 finding of a strong relationship between investment in capital goods users industries and patent applications by capital goods producing sectors has been generally accepted by economists as evidence that patenting is a function of effective demand demand pull hypothesis quite a number of case studies have followed schmookier s seminal work but there have been

rising trade costs agglomeration and trade with endogenous transaction costs while transport costs have fallen the empirical evidence also points at rising total trade costs in a model of industry location with endogenous transaction costs that seeks to replicate features from the machinery industry we show how and under which conditions a decline in transport costs can lead to an increase in the total cost of trade the subtle relationship between endogenous transport costs and the sensitivity of trade

debt and seniority an analysis of the role of hard claims in constraining management we argue that long term debt has a role in controlling management s ability to finance future investments a company with high widely held debt will find it hard to raise capital since new security holders will have low priority relative to existing creditors conversely for a company with low debt we show there is an optimal debt equity ratio and mix of senior and junior debt if management undertakes unprofitable as well as profitable investments we derive conditions under which equity and a single class of senior long term debt work as well as more complex contracts for controlling investment behavior

epochs and essences a review of marxist long wave and stagnation theories this paper criticizes three central traditions in marxist accumula tion theory on grounds that each relies upon the assumption that the accumulation process is shaped by an ultimate determinant or essence in the stagnation argument formulated by j steindl 1976 1979 and p baran and p m sweezy 1966 capitalist firms are shaped by an urge to expand which in tu rn shapes economic growth e mandel s 1980 long wave theory formulates abstractly fixed inner laws of motion the social structures long wave theory of d gordon r edwards and m reich 1982 roots accumulation s pace in abstractly theorized power dynamics the paper suggests a nonreductionist alternative understanding of marxist economic theory copyright 1988 by oxford university press

innovative activity over the business cycle this paper examines cyclical patterns of innovative activity in the united kingdom over the period 1948 83 innovative activity turns out to have many of the properties of a random walk but does show a tendency to cluster during booms there is clear evidence of a long term secular relation between the level of innovative activity and the level of economic activity although this may have changed in the 1980s finally the data provide no reason for thinking that these clusters of innovation cause cyclic variations in economic activity but variations in economic activity do granger cause changes in innovative activity copyright 1995 by royal economic society

the role of manufacturing in regional growth harris r i d 1987 the role of manufacturing in regional growth reg studies 21 301 312 since a shift in regional policy away from manufacturing to aiding services is being advocated this paper re examines the role of manufacturing in regional growth from both an empirical and theoretical viewpoint first of all it discusses the importance of manufacturing s share of output concluding that in output terms and prior to 1979 manufacturing has not been displaced by services in shares of total output secondly the paper focuses on the theoretical importance of manufacturing to the growth of regional output showing that for most theories demand side growth pole cumulative causation manufacturing is the natural base for growth potential harris r i d 1987 le role des industries de fabrication dans la croissance regionale reg studies 21 301 312 vu que l on propose une reorientation de la politique regionale au depens des industries de fabrication et en faveur du tertiaire cet article

third world cities the changing national settlement system this is a review of recent literature on trends in urbanization in developing countries the author examines the decline in the pace of urbanization in the middle east and latin america changes in migration related to changes in spatial structure a trend toward a more polycentric form of metropolitan development around some major urban centers a decline in the pace of metropolitan expansion associated with economic recession and the failure of regional policy to affect urbanization trends annotation

seniority and maturity of debt contracts abstract this paper provides a model of how borrowers with private information about their credit prospects choose seniority and maturity of debt increased short term debt leads lenders to liquidate too often it also increases the sensitivity of financing costs to new information although better than average borrowers desire information sensitivity the model implies that short term debt will be senior to long term debt and that long term debt will allow the issue of additional future senior debt the model also has implications on the structure of leveraged buyouts and on how various types of lenders respond to potential defaults

political regulation of mexico s oil boom the policy choices of wealth abstract firm estimates have been given of the oil gas and gas liquid reserves that mexico is likely to develop in the next decade or more but the decision has yet to be made as to how fast and how far its energy resources should be developed one faction including the pemex technocrats believe that foreign capital should be utilized with all speed to accelerate mexico s export of energy products especially to the us another group argues that the development of domestic and agrarian enterprises should be granted a higher priority the resolution of the debate and the recovery of the world oil market will determine whether mexico will become one of the richest or the most unstable of the oil exporters in the third world

dynamic security design convergence to continuous time and asset pricing implications an entrepreneur with limited liability needs to finance an infinite horizon investment project an agency problem arises because she can divert operating cash flows before reporting them to the financiers we first study the optimal contract in discrete time this contract can be implemented by cash reserves debt and equity the latter is split between the financiers and the entrepreneur and pays dividends when retained earnings reach a threshold to provide appropriate incentives to the entrepreneur the firm is downsized when it runs short of cash we then study the continuous time limit of the model we prove the convergence of the discrete time value functions and optimal contracts our analysis yields rich implications for the dynamics of security prices stock prices follow a diusion reflected at the dividend barrier and absorbed at zero their volatility as well as the leverage ratio of the firm increase after bad performance stock prices and book tomarket ratios are in a non monotonic relationship a more severe agency problem entails lower price earning ratios and firm liquidity and higher default risk

a comparative analysis of the use of information inputs in the manufacturing sectors of korea and japan abstract the paper examines the use of two information inputs information labor and purchased information services in korean and japanese manufacturing sectors in 1980 marginal products and substitution elasticities are calculated from translog production function estimates for the average manufacturing sector both inputs seem to be relatively more underused in korea second the elasticity estimates suggest several hypotheses about the growth of private bureaucracies in the two economies the results are unlikely to apply to other economies which have not yet attained an advanced industrial structure a simplistic stages theory of economic development based on the growth of the information labor force is rejected

the power of integrality linkages between product architecture innovation and industry structure abstract a substantial literature stream suggests that many products are becoming more modular over time and that this development is often associated with a change in industry structure towards higher degrees of specialization these developments can have strong implications for an industry s competition as the history of the pc industry illustrates to add to our understanding of the linkages between product architecture innovation and industry structure we develop detailed product architecture measurements based on a previously proposed method fixson s k 2005 product architecture assessment a tool to link product process and supply chain design decisions journal of operations management 23 3 4 345 369 and study an unusual case in which a firm through decreasing its product modularity turned its formerly competitive industry into a near monopoly using this case study we explore how existing theories on modularity explain the observed phenomenon and show that most consider technological change in rather long term dimensions and tend to focus on efficiency related arguments to explain the resulting forces on competition we add three critical aspects to the theory that connects technological change and industry dynamics first we suggest integrating as a new design operator to explain product architecture genesis second we argue that a finer grained analysis of the product architecture shows the existence of multiple linkages between product architecture and industry structure and that these different linkages help explain the observed intra industry heterogeneity across firms third we propose that the firm boundary choice can also be a pre condition of the origin of architectural innovation not only an outcome of efficiency considerations

default and renegotiation a dynamic model of debt we analyze the role of debt in persuading an entrepreneur to pay out cash e ows rather than to divertthem in the e rstpartof the paper we study the optimal debt contract specie cally the trade off between the size of the loan and the repayment under the assumption that some debt contract is optimal in the second part we consider a more general class of nondebt contracts and derive sufficient conditions for debt to be optimal among these

optimal security design and dynamic capital structure in a continuous time agency model we derive the optimal dynamic contract in a continuous time principal agent setting and implement it with a capital structure credit line long term debt and equity over which the agent controls the payout policy while the project s volatility and liquidation cost have little impact on the firm s total debt capacity they increase the use of credit versus debt leverage is nonstationary and declines with past profitability the firm may hold a compensating cash balance while borrowing at a higher rate through the credit line surprisingly the usual conflicts between debt and equity asset substitution strategic default need not arise in this paper we consider a dynamic contracting environment in which a riskneutral agent or entrepreneur with limited resources manages an investment activity while the investment is profitable it is also risky and in the short run it can generate arbitrarily large operating losses the agent will need outside financial support to cover such losses and continue the project the difficulty is that while the probability distribution of the cash flows is publicly known the agent may distort these cash flows by taking a hidden action that leads to a private benefit specifically the agent may i conceal and divert cash flows for his own consumption and or ii stop providing costly effort which would reduce the mean of the cash flows therefore from the perspective of the principal or investors that fund the project there is the concern that a low cash flow realization may be a result of the agent s actions rather than the project s fundamentals to provide the agent with appropriate incentives investors control the agent s wage and may also withdraw their financial support for the project and force its early termination we seek to characterize an optimal contract in this framework and relate it to the firm s choice of capital structure we develop a method to solve for the optimal contract given the incentive constraints in a continuous time setting and study the properties of the credit line debt and equity that implement the contract as in the discrete time model of demarzo and fishman 2003 the continuous time setting offers several peter m demarzo is from stanford university and yuliy sannikov is from u c berkeley we

growth theory and industrial revolutions in britain and america abstract long run economic growth has again become a major focus of economic theory a perception of technological change as an economic process with externalities has motivated the development of aggregate models that generate different steady state growth paths economic history has also long been interested in long run economic growth here a dialogue is presented between growth theory and the historical literature on the industrial revolution in britain and america s surge to international economic leadership in the late nineteenth century in conclusion economists recent thinking about the microeconomics of technological change has provided fruitful material for the economic historian of growth unfortunately the models of endogenous growth on the other hand present too aggregated a view of the economy to prove helpful when confronted with the details of economic history jel classification n0 n1 1 theorie de la croissance et revolutions industrielles en grande bretagne et en amerique la croissance economique a long terme est redevenue un point d interet majeur pour la theorie economique une perception du changement technologique comme processus economique porteur d externalites a engendre le developpement de modeles agreges qui generent differents sentiers de croissance en regime permanent l histoire economique s interesse depuis longtemps a la croissance economique a long terme ce texte engage le dialogue entre la theorie de la croissance et la litterature historique a propos de la revolution industrielle en grande bretagne et de l emergence de l amerique au statut de leader international a la fin du dix neuvieme siecle on en arrive a la conclusion que les recents developpements dans la pensee economique a propos de la micro economie du changement technologique ont produit des resultats utiles pour l histoire economique de la croissance malheureusement d autre part les modeles de croissance endogene presente une vue trop agregee de l economie pour s averer utile dans l examen des details de l histoire economique

patent protection and strategic delays in technology development implications for economic growth we present an endogenous growth model in which both the investment to develop a new technology that upgrades the quality of machines and entry of imitators are determined endogenously according to the model how soon the new technology machine is launched after the patent is granted is influenced by two factors returns to scale in technology development and strategic delays strategic delays in technology development are most likely to occur when earlier dates of success enable imitators to enter an industry i e when imitation is swift and relatively cheap and or patent protection is relatively lengthy we then explore the link between the optimal patent length and economic growth and find that the equilibrium investment in technology development and thus the expected rate of technological progress exhibit an inverted u shape relationship with respect to the legal patent length our results further suggest that in order to minimize the strategic delays in technology development and spur technological progress legal patent lengths should be shorter in industries where barriers to entry are relatively low

financial intermediaries and liquidity creation trading losses associated with information asymmetries can be mitigated by designing securities which split the cash flows of underlying assets these securities which can arise endogenously have values that do not depend on the information known only to informed agents bank debt deposits is an example of this type of liquid security which protect relatively uninformed agents and we provide a rationale for deposit insurance in this content high grade corporate debt and government bonds are other examples implying that a money market mutual fund based payments system may be an alternative to one based on insured bank deposits

productivity growth and the structure of the business cycle abstract over the recent years opportunity cost oc models of growth have argued that recessions are times when firms engage in productivity improving activities because of intertemporal substitu tion this paper tests whether this approach is correct the technique used to disentangle the trend from the cycle is semi structural vector autoregression the results are mildly supportive of the oc theory there tends to be a negative impact of demand shocks on productivity both in the short run and in the long run and the short run impact is stronger in those countries where fluctuations are more transitory however there is no significant response of r d to demand shocks

the determinants of the maturity of corporate debt issues we document the determinants of the term to maturity of 7 369 bonds and notes issued between 1982 and 1993 our main finding is that large firms with investment grade credit ratings typically borrow at the short end and at the long end and of the maturity spectrum while firms with speculative grade credit ratings typically borrow in the middle of the maturity spectrum this pattern is consistent with the theory that risky firms do not issue short term debt in order to avoid inefficient liquidation but are screened out of the long term debt market because of the prospect of risky asset substitution traditionally capital structure research has focused on how much of a firm s future cash flows should be paid out to debtholders instead of equityholders an equally important issue is when future cash flows should be paid out to debtholders a firm that finances its projects with short term debt risks serious financial difficulty if the debt cannot be extended similarly a firm that finances its activities with long term debt can sacrifice profits by needlessly risking mismanagement of resources after cash flows are returned from investments but before they are due to debtholders this study investigates the factors that firms consider when choosing the maturity of their liabilities we document the determinants of the maturity of 7 368 public debt issues made by u s corporations between 1982 and 1993 our empirical tests are based on existing theoretical models that relate the maturity of a firm s borrowings to the riskiness of its cash flows the time until investments pay off the quality of information held by outsiders the expected

resource based industry in boom downswing and liberalization mexico abstract mexico s oil windfall was advantageously later and smaller than that of most oil exporters but it was still absorbed too quickly inflation accelerated the exchange rate appreciated and diversification into competitive non oil tradeables like resource based industry rbi was retarded too much rbi investment was channelled through state enterprises whose performance deteriorated it relied heavily on the protected domestic market which fell short of projections excess capacity and inadequate revenues then made rbi vulnerable as mexico rapidly liberalized its economy in the late 1980s

some legacies of robbins an essay on the nature and significance of economic science this paper criticizes three robbinsian positions still often found in modern economics 1 the methodology of intuitively obvious assumptions 2 treating facts as illustrations rather than as tests of theoretical propositions 3 assuming that theory provides universally applicable generalizations independent of the characteristics of individual economies and so are independent of specific historical processes two corollaries of point 3 are that theory cannot assist in explaining unique historical events such as the emergence of sustained growth in the west and that economists need not interest themselves in the details of the technologies that produce the nation s wealth

revisiting international business theory a capabilities based theory of the mne an introduction to this issue of the journal of international business studies in which the author discusses a capabilities based theory of multinational enterprises mne is presented

technological networking and innovation implementation this paper presents a theory of innovation which presumes that new technologies emerge from a firm s accumulated stock of skills among these we distinguish technological and networking skills we examine two aspects of innovating firms their inclination to adopt a technological innovation and their propensity to implement innovation alone or with other firms historical conditions pertaining to organizational skills are examined to account for these aspects among the most important are a firm s cumulative stream of technological projects that have some affinity to the new technology a second important antecedent can be inferred from a firm s history of technological networking networking includes licensing joint ventures and long term contracts and can be formed for technological reasons or for reasons having to do with the delivery of products and services networking is deemed important for facilitating access to strands of technology that are alien to a firm linkages are also conducive for con

persistence of shocks and their sources in a multisectoral model of uk output growth this paper develops a multisectoral framework for the measurement of persistence of shocks to sectoral and aggregate output and provides a decomposition of the contribution of shocks from different sources to the overall persistence measure the framework is applied to u k output data distinguishing four types of macroeconomic shocks innovations in money supply growth stock returns exchange rates and oil prices among the macro shocks exchange rate shocks have the largest persistence effects on aggregate output through their effects on manufacturing sectors the contribution of the identified macro shocks to total persistence was small however compared to that of sector specific shocks copyright 1992 by royal economic society

gpt driven endogenous growth seven years after helpman s 1998 book on general purpose technologies gpts there is a dearth of subsequent models early models employed technically complex dynamic optimising techniques which limited further development we present a model in which sustained growth is driven by a succession of gpts that is technically simpler than the early models yet captures stylised facts that were omitted from them ours has diminishing returns to inputs and endogenous incremental technological changes from r d interrupted by the occasional introduction of new gpts gpts are themselves developed endogenously with payoffs that are subject to uncertainty in magnitude and timing

firm characteristics and the cyclicality of r d investments the aim of this study is to combine micro aspects of firm behavior with macro aspects of business development and identify market conditions e g price competition and firm characteristics e g type of r d partners that enable a firm to have a pro cyclical anti cyclical or non systematic r d investment behavior the empirical results confirm to large extent a series of hypotheses as to innovation relevant firm characteristics that underline the three different behavior categories and allow us to make profiles of the three types of r d behavior

technological learning in offshore wind energy different roles of the government offshore wind energy is a promising source of renewable electricity even though its current costs prevent large scale implementation technological learning has improved the technology and its economic performance already and could result in significant further improvements this study investigates how technological learning takes place in offshore wind energy and how technological learning is related to different policy regimes offshore wind energy developments in denmark and the united kingdom have been analysed with a technology specific innovation systems approach the results reveal that the dominant forms of learning are learning by doing and learning by using at the same time learning by interacting is crucial to achieve the necessary binding elements in the technology specific innovation system generally most learning processes were performed by self organizing entities however sometimes cultural and technical barriers occurred excluding component suppliers and knowledge institutes from the innovation system danish policies successfully anticipated these barriers and removed them therefore the danish policies can be characterized as pro active british policies shaped stable conditions for learning only therefore they can be characterized as active in the future barriers could hinder learning by interacting between the oil and gas industry the offshore wind industry and academia based on this study we suggest national and international policy makers to design long term policies to anticipate these barriers in order to contribute to technological learning

is demand pulled innovation equally important in different groups of firms previous empirical literature has tested the demand pull hypothesis and found that innovation may be driven by output using a balanced panel of 216 italian manufacturing firms 1995 2000 and checking for the path dependent nature of r d we find a role of sales in inducing r d however the demand pull effect plays a varying role for different sub samples of firms exporting firms liquidity constrained firms not subsidised firms and those not heading a group seem to be sensitive to sales in deciding r d these results have been obtained using a least squares dummy variable corrected estimator a recent panel data technique suitable for small samples

why are us firms using more short term debt abstract we show that corporate use of long term debt has decreased in the us over the past three decades and that this trend is heterogeneous across firms the median percentage of debt maturing in more than 3 years decreased from 53 in 1976 to 6 in 2008 for the smallest firms but did not decrease for the largest firms the decrease in debt maturity was generated by firms with higher information asymmetry and new firms issuing public equity in the 1980s and 1990s finally we show that demand side factors do not fully explain this trend and that public debt markets supply side factors play an important role our findings suggest that the shortening of debt maturity has increased the exposure of firms to credit and liquidity shocks

science parks and regional innovation performance in fiscal austerity era less is more european financial crisis has raised questions about the sustainability and the contribution of innovation anchors especially in southern european countries such as greece this paper utilizes the concept of regional innovation systems riss and introduces a methodological approach that allows for evaluating an science and technology park s stp contribution into the corresponding ris performance taking into consideration 1 the ris idiosyncrasies 2 the dominant role of government expenditures on r d and 3 the underlying complexity of knowledge production and management under alternative sets of restrictions imposed by fiscal consolidation on the preferences of authorities which design and implement science technology and innovation sti policies our framework relies on the estimation of a multi input multi output latent knowledge production function approach and the corresponding efficiency indices data requirements are sourced from the regional innovation scoreboard for the four greek regions and from a small scale case study with respect to the examined regional stp covering the period from 2000 to 2012 the main empirical findings highlight that the contribution of the examined stp in the corresponding ris performance diminishes alongside with the decrease in gerd investment levels with respect to all the efficiency indices these findings are attributed to the structural characteristics of both the ris and the stp under investigation and capture their dependence on managing public financial resources for sti activities

using network analysis to understand public policy for wave energy abstract the uk s wave energy sector is at a pre commercial stage transitioning from prototype demonstration towards a revenue supported industry a host of advantages that could be realised through successful commercialisation include the potential to generate 40 50 twh yr 3 7bn of export and 10 000 jobs by 2020 with tidal despite this criticisms have been made about the lack of coordination between funding bodies communication between stakeholders and overly centralised actors although the value of strong problem solving networks has been noted problems arise in validating the presence nature and value of relationships as well as identification of tacit and informal linkages here network analysis is used to validate these criticisms and provide insight into sector activities it is shown that although high levels of interaction are occurring overall there are wide disparities prime movers are clearly present and less mature developers are isolated from the system as it develops norms and practices this combined with government fund gating has led to a matthew effect whereby some have access to finance and are shaping institutional norms while others struggle although convergence is expected a lack of public sector coordination transparency of decision making and comparability between devices has reduced both investor and stakeholder legitimacy

inside the black box technology and economics economists have long treated technological phenomena as events transpiring inside a black box and on the whole have adhered rather strictly to a self imposed ordinance not to inquire too seriously into what transpires inside that box the purpose of professor rosenberg s work is to break open and examine the contents of the black box in so doing a number of important economic problems be powerfully illuminated the author clearly shows how specific features of individual technologies have shaped a number of variables of great concern to economists the rate of productivity improvement the nature of learning processes underlying technological change itself the speed of technology transfer and the effectiveness of government policies that are intended to influence technologies in particular ways the separate chapters of this book reflect a primary concern with some of the distinctive aspects of industrial technologies in the twentieth century such as the increasing reliance upon science but also the considerable subtlety and complexity of the dialectic between science and technology other concerns include the rapid growth in the development of costs associated with new technologies as well as the difficulty of predicting the eventual performance characteristics of newly emerging technologies

information and intellectual property the global challenges the paper analyses the contribution of golden papers seminal works whose ideas remain as fresh and relevant today as when they were first published decades ago and which continue to dominate academic discourse among successive generations of scholars the authors analyse why two works written within an industrial development context the simple economics of basic scientific research by richard nelson 1959 and kenneth arrows economic welfare and the allocation of resources for invention 1962 are so relevant in today s knowledge driven economic paradigm focusing on the papers application to current global policy debates on information knowledge and intellectual property they argue that while the context has changed the essential nature of innovation driven by widespread access to the ability to replicate and improve remains the same hence a focus on endogenous innovation policy is as relevant today as it was 50 years ago

a critical realist interpretation of evolutionary growth theorising the article discusses a critical realist interpretation of evolutionary growth theorising by focusing on some of its basic characteristics the evolutionary ontology is complex differentiated structured systemic open ever changing and radically uncertain its methodology tends to be increasingly based on appreciative theorising retroductive explanations and interdisciplinary analysis after discussing these features the article suggests that critical realism may indeed constitute an important philosophical and methodological foundation for the future development of evolutionary theories of economic growth

trade policy in mexico this evaluation examines mexican trade policies applied over three well defined periods during the last quarter century and makes recommendations for the future each discussion begins with a description of the macroeconomic background and then analyzes trade policy developments of the period with further attention given to industrial policy measures changes in mexican exports and imports and their contribution to industrial growth are discussed mexico s current economic difficulties stem from 1956 when increases in public consumption contributed to inflation and to the appreciation of the peso in real terms under fixed exchange rates the overvaluation of the exchange rate led to the application of protectionist measures which discriminated against exports the situation was aggravated by excessively expansionary policies which necessitated substantial foreign borrowing and exacerbated protectionist pressures this paper makes recommendations for remedying macroeconomic disequilibria reducing price distortions and reforming trade policy with a view to moving towards an outward oriented development strategy future growth will depend however on increased investments particularly in export activities that may be encouraged by appropriate incentives

optimal debt structure and the number of creditors within an optimal contracting framework we analyze the optimal number of creditors a company borrows from we also analyze the optimal allocation of security interests among creditors and intercreditor voting rules that govern renegotiation of debt contracts the key to our analysis is the idea that these aspects of the debt structure affect the outcome of debt renegotiation following a default debt structures that lead to inefficient renegotiation are beneficial in that they deter default but they are also costly if default is beyond a manager s control the optimal debt structure balances these effects we characterize how the optimal debt structure depends on firm characteristics such as its technology its credit rating and the market for its assets

a theory of financing constraints and firm dynamics there is widespread evidence supporting the conjecture that borrowing constraints have important implications for firm growth and survival in this paper we model a multiperiod borrowing lending relationship with asymmetric information we show that borrowing constraints emerge as a feature of the optimal long term lending contract and that such constraints relax as the value of the borrower s claim to future cash flows increases we also show that the optimal contract has interesting implications for firm dynamics in agreement with the empirical evidence as age and size increase mean and variance of growth decrease and firm survival increases

the hazards of debt rollover freezes incentives and bailouts we investigate the trade o between incentive provision an di ne ient rollover freezes for a firm financed with short term debt first debt maturity that is too short term is ine cient even with incentive provision th eo ptimal maturity is an interior solution that avoids excessive rollover risk whil ep roviding su ient incentives for the manager to avoid risk shifting when the firm is in good health second allowing the manager to risk shift during a freeze actually increase sc reditor conf idence debt policy should not prevent the manager from holding what may appear to be otherwise low mean strategies that have option value during a freeze third a limited but not perfectly reliable form of emergency financing during a freeze a bailout may improve the terms of the trade o and increase total ex ante va lue by instilling confidence in the creditor markets our conclusions highlight the endogenous interaction between risk from the asset and liability sides of the balance sheet

invention and innovation in the chemical industry demand pull or discovery push abstract this paper describes a study of the determinants of the rate direction and scale of inventive and innovative activity in the chemical industry over the period 1830 1980 statistical data are interpreted in the light of case study material in three major sectors dyestuffs plastics and pharmaceuticals theories of technical change and economic growth particularly those of schmookler and schmpeter are examined in relation to this material on the chemical industry the findings suggest that the importance of demand pull and discovery push factors and the validity of schmookler s and schumpeter s theories vary over an industry s life cycle

retrieving and transferring embodied data implications for the management of interdependence within organizations this research helps to link theories of sticky information with organizational design and governance it suggests that information embodied in process material can allow downstream tasks to uncover information about upstream tasks it shows that downstream operators can use this information to negotiate interdependence problems with upstream operators data presented in this article begin to uncover when such information retrieval and exchange occurs and how managers can encourage it finally the article discusses implications for theories of operational design and governance

a theory of multiperiod debt structure we develop a theory of multiperiod debt structure a simple trade off between the termination threat required to make debt repayments incentive compatible and the desire to avoid early liquidation determines the number of repayments their timing and amounts as firms increase their borrowing they add periodic risky repayments from the back of the maturity structure with the time between repayments increasing in cash flow risk cash flow growth or a significant risk free cash flow component limits the number of risky repayments firms with a significant risk free cash flow component choose dispersed maturity profiles with smaller relatively safe repayments every period rather than riskier periodic repayments

institutional analysis and the resource curse in developing countries abstract the present article examines the recent advances reported in the literature regarding the mechanisms underlying the resource curse in developing countries by analyzing the rule of law index we investigated how the institutions responsible for allocating hydrocarbon royalties can help minimize the effects of the resource curse we used a qualitative methodology based on case studies the results show that evidence of legal violations on the part of these institutions and the lack of tools in resource rich developing countries to uphold basic social and economic rights are associated with the resource curse our findings suggest that strengthening the institutions closer monitoring of oil revenue allocations and public participation can help to alleviate the resource curse

the global impact of information technology abstract the paper explores the impact of information technology on the worldwide distribution of income employment and growth a review of the empirical literature is used to quantify the impact of information technology on productivity in different sectors and groups of countries an economic model of the global economy is then used to calculate the possible impact of information technology on international and domestic distribution and employment a number of alternative possibilities are considered i industrial countries are the most successful in introducing the new technology ii the technology turns out to be capital saving rather than labor displacing iii the rate of diffusion to developing countries increases iv the small scale and decentralizing potential of information technology is exploited the calculations suggest that indirect effects arising from international and intersectoral competition are at least as important as direct effects and that the distribution of gains from information technology depends as much upon what technology is introduced as on where it is introduced

dynamic debt maturity a firm chooses its debt maturity structure and default timing dynamically both without commitment via the fraction of newly issued short term bonds equity holders control the maturity structure which affects their endogenous default decision a shortening equilibrium with accelerated default emerges when cash flows deteriorate over time so that debt recovery is higher if default occurs earlier self enforcing shortening and lengthening equilibria may coexist with the latter possibly pareto dominating the former the inability to commit to issuance policies can worsen the leland problem of the inability to commit to a default policy a self fulfilling shortening spiral and adverse default policy may arise received april 16 2015 accepted february 20 2016 by editor itay goldstein

optimal lending contracts and firm dynamics we develop a general model of lending in the presence of endogenous borrowing constraints borrowing constraints arise because borrowers face limited liability and debt repayment cannot be perfectly enforced in the model the dynamics of debt are closely linked with the dynamics of borrowing constraints in fact borrowing constraints must satisfy a dynamic consistency requirement the value of outstanding debt restricts current access to short term capital but is itself determined by future access to credit this dynamic consistency is not guaranteed in models of exogenous borrowing constraints where the ability to raise short term capital is limited by some prespecified function of debt we characterize the optimal default free contract which minimizes borrowing constraints at all histories and derive implications for firm growth survival leverage and debt maturity the model is qualitatively consistent with stylized facts on the growth and survival of firms comparative statics with respect to technology and default constraints are derived borrowing constraints are an important determinant of firm growth and survival 1 such constraints may arise in connection to the financing of investment opportunities faced by firms or temporary liquidity needs such as those required to survive a recession this paper develops a theory of endogenous borrowing constraints and studies its implications for firm dynamics in our model debt is constrained by the firm s limited liability and option to default a lending contract specifies an initial loan size future financing and a repayment schedule the choice of these variables in turn determines future growth the firm s future borrowing capacity and its ability and willingness to repay hence borrowing constraints and firm dynamics are jointly determined we study this dynamic design problem our model builds on thomas and worral s 1994 model of foreign direct investment at time zero a risk neutral borrower firm or entrepreneur has a project which requires a fixed initial set up cost every period the project yields revenues that increase with the amount of 1 there is considerable evidence suggesting that financing constraints are important determinants of firm dynamics gertler and gilchrist 1994 argue that liquidity constraints may explain why small manufacturing firms respond more to a tightening of monetary policy than do larger manufacturing firms perez quiros and timmermann 2000 show that in recessions smaller firms are more sensitive to the worsening of credit market conditions as measured by higher interest rates and default premia evans and jovanovic 1989 show that the liquidity constraints are essential in the decision to become an entrepreneur fazzari hubbard and petersen 1988 among others view financial constraints as an explanation for the dynamic behaviour of aggregate investment and cabral and mata 1996 are able to fit reasonably well the size distribution of portuguese manufacturing firms by estimating a simple model of financing constraints for surveys see hubbard 1998 and stein 2003

optimal long term financial contracting we develop an agency model of financial contracting we derive long term debt a line of credit and equity as optimal securities capturing the debt coupon and maturity the interest rate and limits on the credit line inside versus outside equity dividend policy and capital structure dynamics the optimal debt equity ratio is history dependent but debt and credit line terms are independent of the amount financed and in some cases the severity of the agency problem in our model the agent can divert cash flows we also consider settings in which the agent undertakes hidden effort or can control cash flow risk

agricultural biotechnology and poverty reduction in low income countries summary while biotechnology innovation is concentrated in high income tier i countries international diffusion of innovations to improve the diet health and incomes of the poorest will be largely driven by tier ii innovators such as china and brazil adoption of beneficial biotechnologies in tier ii and tier iii countries will increase as more transgenic versions of conventionally grown varieties become available and as costs decline which in turn will depend upon regulatory approvals being needed only once for each transformation event and transaction costs for accessing technologies being minimized investments in higher education and intellectual property clearinghouse institutions can greatly facilitate technology transfer

credit default swaps and the empty creditor problem the empty creditor problem arises when a debtholder has obtained insurance against default but otherwise retains control rights in and outside bankruptcy we analyze this problem from an ex ante and ex post perspective in a formal model of debt with limited commitment by comparing contracting outcomes with and without insurance through credit default swaps cds we show that cds and the empty creditors they give rise to have important ex ante commitment benefits by strengthening creditors bargaining power they raise the debtor s pledgeable income and help reduce the incidence of strategic default however we also show that lenders will over insure in equilibrium giving rise to an inefficiently high incidence of costly bankruptcy we discuss a number of remedies that have been proposed to overcome the inefficiency resulting from excess insurance jel g30 g32 g33 one of the most significant changes in the debtor creditor relationship in the

industrial policy reform in six large newly industrializing countries the resource curse thesis abstract all six large newly industrializing countries nics in this study favored an autarkic industrial policy aip in the 1950s aip required however the rapid build up of heavy and chemical industry hci which caused foreign exchange shortages if the hci matured slowly this is because the import and subsidy demands of the growing protected hci sector became too burdensome for the competitive primary sector whose rents shrank in relative importance as the economic structure evolved the two least well endowed nics abandoned aip early in favor of a competitive industrial policy cip which relied on labor intensive exports to earn foreign exchange and resulted in rapid economic growth in contrast the resource bonus of the four best endowed nics sustained aip longer but the longer aip lasted the harder it became to reform and the slow maturing hci sector adversely affected economic growth in this way the resource bonus became a curse rather than a blessing

the economic dynamics of technologies development abstract there is little doubt about the fact that specific major technologies shape the long waves in economic activity the trouble is that we don t understand very well what exactly is meant economically by the term specific technologies synthetic materials microelectronics and alike the purpose of this paper is to set up a conceptual framework to fit this requirement and thus to understand the economic dynamics of the development process involved schumpeter did study the innovation s economics dynamics still he did not elaborate a consistent story and the internal forces of a given technology as for ourselves following schmookler by theorizing the behaviour of the small innovation instead of the major one and rosenberg by taking into consideration the technical heuristic as such we suggest a framework for the dynamics of technologies development we use an evolutionary approach a la nelson and winter and gradually define the different components of this special dynamics a specific technology would appear to be a theoretical unit which gives structure to elementary small innovations according to a particular cumulative path

technological pre adaptation speciation and emergence of new technologies how corning invented and developed fiber optics this article investigates how established firms innovate and even initiate new technological trajectories we build on and expand the notion of technological speciation to describe how a new technology emerges when a firm leverages its technological knowledge into a new application domain current research on technological speciation does not investigate how firms accumulate the technological knowledge which they eventually redeploy into different domains nor does it clarify the precise role of luck historical accidents and foresight strategy in shaping the overall process this requires a finer grained investigation of the microprocesses and evolutionary forces underlying the dynamics of technological speciation to this end we use a longitudinal case study of corning s invention and development of fiber optics technology we focus less on testing theory and more on describing a phenomenon to generate new theoretical insight

managing an oil bonanza an analysis of alternative mexican export policies abstract recent exploration in mexico has turned up oilfields nearly as large as those in the middle east thus proper management of its oil bonanza has become a burning economic and political issue increased oil production and revenues today must be traded off against the resulting reductions in oil production and revenues in the future the present study employs the eta macro energy economy model of manne to quantify those tradeoffs given existing uncertainties about the extent of the mexican resource base and the future of the world oil price there appears to be no strong economic incentive for mexico to increase its level of oil exports from its current level of slightly over one million bbl day to beyond about 3 million bbl day during the 1980s

the maturity structure of corporate debt we provide an empirical examination of the determinants of corporate debt maturity our evidence offers strong support for the contracting cost hypothesis firms that have few growth options are large or are regulated have more long term debt in their capital structure we find little evidence that firms use the maturity structure of their debt to signal information to the market the evidence is consistent however with the hypothesis that firms with larger information asymmetries issue more short term debt we find no evidence that taxes affect debt maturity

biosecurity bioterrorism and the governance of science the increasing convergence of science and security policy science and security policy are increasingly overlapping because of concerns that legitimate research might be misapplied to develop biological weapons this has led to an expansion of security policy to cover broad areas of research and scientific practice including funding publishing peer review employment materials transfer post graduate teaching and academics ability to design and perform experiments and disseminate research such changes raise policy concerns because many of the technologies used to produce biological weapons are dual use and have legitimate peaceful applications as a result attempts to control their generation diffusion or application can have unintended impacts on socially beneficial applications this paper explores recent changes in the governance of science and technology and contributes to future policy making by assessing the relative merits of understanding the development of dual use policy in terms of either technology transfer or technology convergence 2007 elsevier b v all rights reserved

understanding real business cycles he 1 960s were a time of great optimism for macroeconomists many economists viewed the business cycle as dead the keynesian model was the reigning paradigm and it provided all the necessary instructions for manipulating the levers of monetary and fiscal policy to control aggregate demand inflation occurred if aggregate demand was stimulated excessively and unemployment arose if demand was insufficient the only dilemma faced by policymakers was determining the most desirable location along this inflation unemployment tradeoff or phillips curve the remaining intellectual challenge was to establish coherent microeconomic foundations for the aggregate behavioral relations posited by the keynesian framework but this was broadly regarded as a detail that should not deter policymakers in their efforts to stabilize the economy the return of the business cycle in the 1970s after almost a decade of economic expansion and the accompanying high rates of inflation came as a rude awakening for many economists it became increasingly apparent that the basic keynesian framework was not the appropriate vehicle for understanding what happens during a business cycle nor did it seem capable of providing the empirically correct answers to questions involving changes in the economic environment or changes in monetary or fiscal policy the view that keynesian economics was an empirical success even if it lacked sound theoretical foundations could no longer be taken seriously the essential flaw in the keynesian interpretation of macroeconomic phenomenon was the absence of a consistent foundation based on the choice theoretic framework of microeconomics two important papers one by milton friedman 1968 and the other by robert lucas 1976 forcefully demonstrated examples of

evolutionary approaches for sustainable innovation policies from niche to paradigm fostering technological innovation is considered as an important element of policies towards sustainable development in the past 10 years evolutionary policy approaches have been increasingly advocated for several reasons they seem well equipped to underpin sustainable innovation policies they focus on dynamics of change and their drivers they allow for a substantive perspective on technologies beyond mere input output relations taking into account trajectories and different characteristics of innovation and they are able to describe circumstances under which established technologies might persist even when they are to some extent inferior to their new competitors lock in however the policy effectiveness of evolutionary approaches in cases in which radical or systemic changes are involved is not yet proven in this paper we assess the theoretical rationale instrumental aspects and the coping with policy constraints of three evolutionary policy approaches which have also been used in empirical studies strategic niche management transition management and time strategies each approach has its strengths and specific problems and all three have to be further developed and tested out but they hold promise for contributing to non incremental change with economic and environmental benefits by shaping processes of variation selection and retention with the outcomes feeding back into policy they may also be used in other areas in which innovation direction is important for instance health care or food

temporary protection and technology adoption evidence from the napoleonic blockade this paper uses a natural experiment to assess whether temporary protection from trade with industrial leaders can foster development of infant industries in follower countries using a new dataset compiled from primary sources i find that in the short run regions departements in the french empire which became better protected from trade with the british for exogenous reasons during the napoleonic wars 1803 15 increased capacity in a new technology mechanised cotton spinning to a larger extent than regions which remained more exposed to trade temporary protection had long term effects in particular by exploiting the fact that the post war location of the cotton industry was determined to a large extent by the historical accident of the wars i first show that the location of cotton spinning within france was persistent and firms located in regions with higher post war spinning capacity were more productive 30 years later second i find that after the restoration of peace exports of cotton goods from france increased substantially consistent with evolving comparative advantage in cottons third i show that as late as 1850 france and belgium both part of the french empire prior to 1815 had larger cotton spinning industries than other continental european countries which were not protected from british trade during the wars this suggests that adoption of the new technology was far from inevitable

socio technical inertia understanding the barriers to electric vehicles it is widely accepted that electrification of the transport sector is one of several technological trajectories that could redress some of the environmental issues associated with the growth in travel demand including climate change and oil demand at a global scale and air quality and noise pollution at the urban scale electric vehicles have been considered a promising technology at repeated intervals over the last century but this promise has not been realised this paper is a contribution to understanding the key tools and strategies that might enable the successful introduction of new technologies and innovations by exploring the key barriers to electric vehicles encountered in two countries uk and germany where the automobile industry has been historically significant the study evaluates stakeholders opinions on relevant regulation infrastructure investment r d incentives and consumer incentives the key findings of the research are that the introduction and penetration of evs is confronted by several barriers that inhibit a larger market penetration under current conditions which in turn casts doubt on the assumptions of strategic niche management and transitions theory