spoilt for choice multinational corporations and the geography of international production this paper questions the view that foreign direct investment fdi is producing an integrated world production and trading system although multinational firms have a greater choice of locations than in the past their recent investments abroad have taken place within a regional rather than global framework the upsurge of fdi flows from north to south has been attracted by just a handful of fast growing developing countries the paper disputes the claim that the road to development is for poor countries to attract fdi on the scale observed in such countries as malaysia this claim involves a fallacy of composition while fdi can make a valuable contribution most countries will have to rely mainly on their own resources and indigenous producers the paper argues that current proposals for a multilateral agreement on investment neglect both the regional aspects of integration and the need of poorer countries to promote their domestic supply capabilities conflicts of interest which are ignored in the current rhetoric suggest the continuing relevance of a strategic policy approach to international production copyright 1998 by oxford university press

mathematical structure of a bilevel strategic pricing model abstract this paper is concerned with the characterization of optimal strategies for a service firm acting in an oligopolistic environment the decision problem is formulated as a leader follower game played on a transportation network where the leader firm selects a revenue maximizing price schedule that takes explicitly into account the rational behavior of the customers in the context of our analysis the follower s problem is associated with a competitive network market involving non atomic customer groups the resulting bilevel model can therefore be viewed as a model of product differentiation subject to structural network constraints

globalisation territory and strategic alliances in different financial centres the debates about globalisation global finance and global cities appear to confuse global and international changes and seem a historical this paper begins with a sceptical assessment of globalisation and asks whether a globalised economy is really an internationalised one the paper then addresses an aspect of global finance the national impetus given to alliances between markets in major cities the financial derivatives markets particularly in europe are used to exemplify this trend and to question the degree to which electronic trading poses a threat to the economic welfare of the urban territories in which they are located in conclusion the prospect of major players in large financial centres becoming incorporated into the governance of urban policy is raised

regulatory reform in the european community in 1985 the commission of the european community ec put forward 282 proposals for the completion of the internal market in the same year the european council of ministers adopted the single european act which enlarges the range of matters over which decisions can be taken at a qualified majority by the end of november 1991 the commission had formulated all proposals 217 of them have been approved by the council and around 70 percent of those have been implemented in national laws it is only in the area of indirect taxation that little harmonization has been achieved so far such a swift change in many regulations lies in stark contrast with the experience of the decade preceding the adoption of the single european act during which the european commission and council of ministers did not undertake significant changes of course the substitution of consensus by qualified majority as a decision rule in the council or at least the threat of it few

international investment positions a cross sectional analysis abstract we explore some empirical properties of the level and composition of gross international investment positions in a cross section of countries we find that more open countries with larger domestic financial markets tend to hold greater quantities of foreign assets and liabilities there is some evidence that cross holdings are positively correlated with inflation volatility but negatively correlated with terms of trade volatility

nontraded assets and the capm abstract asset pricing models that rely on the presence of non tradable assets such as human wealth to solve the equity premium puzzle have to confront the effect of decreasing absolute risk aversion rich investors who according to micro data hold the stock market and whose behavior is the one that matters at the margin for the determination of equilibrium asset prices are less risk averse ceteris paribus than the average consumer this paper highlights a channel through which the effect of decreasing absolute risk aversion can be overcome the existence of a positive correlation between the rates of return on traded assets and on the human capital of marginal investors

interest rates and currency prices in a two country world abstract this paper is a theoretical study of the determination of prices interest rates and currency exchange rates set in an infinitely lived two country world which is subject both to stochastic endowment shocks and to monetary instability formulas are obtained for pricing all equity claims nominally denominated bonds and currencies and these formulas are related to earlier closely related results in the theories of money finance international trade

an exploration in the theory of exchange rate regimes three exchange rate regimes a float a one sided peg and a cooperative peg are evaluated and compared in terms of efficiency and welfare levels the framework of analysis embodies country specific monies with the money of each country being used to transact in its commodity markets and its currency denominated bonds welfare levels depend only on consumption levels in the presence of perfect foresight all equilibrium allocations are pareto efficient in a floating exchange rate regime the perfect foresight equilibrium allocation coincides with an equilibrium of a costless barter economy the same result holds in a one sided peg if the pegging country s exchange rate stabilizing authority breaks even over time in a cooperative peg regime there is a different equilibrium allocation for each combination of exchange rate levels and monetary policies problems of policy coordination and conflicts in desired monetary policies are discussed

commodity trade and international risk sharing how much do financial markets matter abstract this paper evaluates the social gains from international risk sharing in some simple general equilibrium models with output uncertainty a simulation model calibrated to selected moments of u s and japanese data estimates the incremental loss from a ban on international portfolio diversification to be on the order of 0 20 percent of output per year even the theoretical gains from asset trade may disappear under alternative sets of assumptions on preferences and technology the paper argues that the small magnitude of potential trade gains may help explain the apparently inconsistent findings of empirical studies on the degree of international capital mobility

localization of industry and trade performance this paper reviews recent literature on the spatial agglomeration of economic activity this literature provides new ways of thinking about the determinants of the location of production of trade flows and of international income differences agglomeration of activity arises out of the tension between product market and factor market competition which encourage a dispersed pattern of location and externalities between firms technological or pecuniary which promote agglomeration using a framework in which intermediate goods create forward and backward linkages the paper shows how economic integration may cause agglomeration and then discusses the implications of this for real income and for economic policy copyright 1996 by oxford university press

shared atm networks and banking competition abstract in this paper we study the incentives of banks to share their automatic teller machines atms when they are competitors in the market for deposits we construct a stylized model of banking competition which emphasises the distinctive features of atm compatibility we find that in equilibrium either a strict subset of banks share their atms or total incompatibility prevails we also derive the implications for atm compatibility of withdrawal fees interchange bank fees entry and depositor switching costs finally we investigate the normative implications of our model and draw some policy conclusions

on the desirability of insulation a counterexample abstract using a two country representative agent model it is shown that flexible exchange rates may insulate an economy from foreign monetary disturbances but that such shocks lead to higher expected welfare under fixed exchange rates jel f4

financial crises and cross border banking new evidence the surge in cross border banking prior to global financial crises took place not only in the interbank market but also in the retail market e g between banks and their private customers abroad we utilize confidential data to estimate for the first time the effects of banking currency and twin crises on the geography of cross border deposits and loans we show that each crisis type has its own specific effects that these effects themselves lead to sustained increases in cross border banking and that they are different for cross border loans and deposits respectively

trade restraints and japanese direct investment flows abstract this paper analyses the factors determining the scale and location of japanese foreign direct investment fdi over the 1980s we use a pooled cross section time series annual data set covering investment in the individual ec countries and the united states our results suggest that controlling for market size and relative labour costs investment was significantly influenced by trade protection measures and in particular by the level of anti dumping actions initiated in the last decade an additional effect from the cost of finance in japan is found suggesting that the tightening of monetary policy in japan in 1989 90 contributed significantly to the observed slowdown in fdi in the early 1990s

using neoclassical consumer choice theory to produce a market map from purchase data this article presents a new model for estimating the spatial representation of objects and preference vectors from actual choice behavior of individuals or households it is based on neoclassical economic theory of consumer choice the model integrates both decisions of which good s to buy and the quantity of purchase overall preference is decomposed into price effects and intrinsic preference for the good a maximum likelihood method for estimating the model parameters is described and illustrated using choice data of ketchup brands collected by the use of electronic supermarket scanners

the travels of a bank deposit in turbulent times the importance of deposit insurance design for cross border deposits we examine the impact of the existence on an explicit deposit insurance di scheme and its design features on bilateral cross border deposits cbd in a gravity model setting we find that both the absolute quality of a country s di and its relative quality vis a vis other countries di generally affect depositor behavior however during systemic banking crises cross border depositors primarily seek countries with the best di schemes similarly during the 2008 2009 great financial crisis the emergency actions taken by the governments which supply and maintain these safe havens have led to substantial relocations of cbd jel f34 g18

scale economies in banking a restructuring and reassessment the issue of scale economies in banking has a rich history most earlier studies report modest operating cost scale economies for small institutions those with less than about 50 million of deposits in 1968 dollars but are unclear where these economies might end if at all unfortunately these studies are limited in four important respects first those that were well specified did not measure the total cost of banking operations but concentrated on estimating scale economies for individual banking functions e g demand deposits separately from commercial loans second an average cost curve that could take a u shape over the full range of banks was not fitted either because larger banks were not included or because of the functional form used cobb douglas consequently the optimum or minimum cost size of a bank or office could not be determined third the variables measuring the costs of branching were misspecified fourth the branch

economies of scale and economies of scope in multiproduct financial institutions a study of british columbia credit unions this paper investigates the production technology facing computerized credit unions in canada a full system of translog cost equations is estimated in order to test for economies of scale economies of scope and other production characteristics in a multiproduct context the regression results indicate that most of the credit unions in our sample experience significant increasing returns to scale as they expand their level of output there is also evidence of cost complementarity or economies of scope in their mortgage and other lending activities as a result legislation which limits the ability of credit unions to grow and diversify will likely raise the operating costs of this important group of financial institutions additional structural tests of the most general translog specification suggest that none of the restrictive production conditions commonly imposed by other researchers using cobb douglas and ces specifications provide a valid representation of credit union technology the results of many earlier studies are therefore open to question this paper presents a number of structural tests of the production technology facing large computerized credit unions in canada a full system of translog cost equations is estimated using detailed cross sectional data on british columbia credit unions the parameter estimates obtained from our multiproduct specification allow us to test for economies of scale economies of scope and factor substitution unlike many earlier studies the present paper introduces the various outputs as separate variables instead of crudely proxying them with a single output measure such as total assets the total number of loans or the number of depositors by explicitly recognizing the multiproduct nature of the intermediation process we are able to address more interesting production questions and remove some of the bias caused by misspecification and measurement error in simpler approaches the flexible translog specification allows us to estimate the sensitivity of costs to proportionate increases in all outputs economies of scale as well as the cost savings firms realize by producing several outputs jointly rather than specializing in the production of one economies of scope the test results reported in the latter part of the paper suggest that increasing returns to scale exist in almost all of the credit unions in our sample though

the boundaries of multinational enterprises and the theory of international trade this paper begins with a review of empirical evidence on multinational firms conceptual underpinnings of a theory are developed relying in particular on the notion of knowledge capital as a mobile joint input into geographically separated production facilities this idea is embedded in a simple two country general equilibrium model that supports multinational production in equilibrium under conditions consistent with the empirical evidence the final section examines internalization and shows why certain properties of knowledge capital also imply a preference for transferring technologies internally within the firm rather than through arm s length markets

wages and foreign ownership a comparative study of mexico venezuela and the united states abstract this paper explores the relationship between wages and foreign investment in mexico venezuela and the united states despite very different economic conditions and levels of development we find one fact that is robust across all three countries higher levels of foreign investment are associated with higher wages however in mexico and venezuela foreign investment is associated with higher wages only for foreign owned firms there is no evidence of wage spillovers leading to higher wages for domestic firms the lack of spillovers in mexico and venezuela is consistent with significant wage differentials between foreign and domestic enterprises in the united states where the evidence suggests some wage spillovers from foreign to domestic enterprises wage differentials are smaller

real exchange rate behavior the recent float from the perspective of the past two centuries using annual data spanning two centuries for dollar sterling and franc sterling real exchange rates we find strong evidence of mean reverting real exchange rate behavior using simple stationary autoregressive models estimated on prefloat data we easily outperform nonstationary real exchange rate models in dynamic forecasting exercises over the recent float such stationary univariate equations explain 60 80 percent of the in sample variation in real exchange rates although the degree of short run persistence may be high the econometric estimates imply a half life of shocks to the real exchange rate of about 6 years for dollar sterling and a little under 3 years for franc sterling

running out of steam manufacturing in malaysia this article examines the process of deindustrialisation in developing countries looking at the case of malaysia it provides a framework to examine how industrial structure and domestic technological capabilities are affected by the wider challenges of late industrialisation changes in global accumulation and domestic class formations it discusses the emerging evidence of malaysia s premature deindustrialisation and how this is the result of broader accumulation strategies that were primarily driven by internal factors related to the emergence of a malay middle class and supported by changes in global accumulation processes related to the development of global production networks and financialisation

being virtuous and prosperous sri s conflicting goals can sri be a means to make investors both virtuous and prosperous this paper argues that there can be significant tensions between these goals and that sri and indeed all investment should not allow the pursuit of maximizing investment returns to prevail over an ethical agenda of promoting social and economic justice and environmental protection the discourse on sri has changed dramatically in recent years to the point where its capacity to promote social emancipation sustainable development and other ethical goals is in jeopardy historically sri was a boutique sector of the market dominated by religious based investors who sought to invest in accordance with the tenets of their faith from the early 1970s the aspirations of the sri movement morphed significantly in the context of the divestment campaign against south africa s apartheid regime no longer were social investors satisfied with just avoiding profit from immoral activities instead they also sought to change the behavior of others business case sri is a problematic sri benchmark for several reasons often there is a countervailing business case for financing irresponsible activities given the failure of markets to capture all social and environmental externalities secondly even if investors care about such concerns there may be no means of financially quantifying their significance for investment purposes and thirdly even if such factors can be financially quantified they may be deemed to be such long term financial costs or benefits that they become discounted and ignored the ethics case for sri and ethical business practices more generally takes the view that both investors and the companies they fund have ethical responsibilities that trump the pursuit of profit maximization ethical investment should be grounded on this foundation however it may not be enough to keep ethical investment ethical will likely require institutionalizing new norms and governance standards in such domains as reforming fiduciary duties and the internal governance of financial organizations sri s own codes of conduct including the unpri have yet to demonstrate the robustness to move the financial community beyond business as usual

are international deposits tax driven abstract this paper investigates the impact of tax policy on international depositing non bank international deposits are shown to be positively related to interest income taxes and to the presence of domestic bank interest reporting this suggests that international deposits are in part intended to facilitate tax evasion at present only part of international interest flow are covered by either non resident interest withholding taxes or international exchange of information this incomplete coverage may be a reason that these policies currently appear to have little impact on international depositing

in defense of the finance constraint simple models of monetary trade commonly impose a finance constraint on expenditure it is often suggested that this finance constraint is artificial a result of money s being the only asset of the absence of credit and of the special time structure of such models this paper shows that the finance constraint on aggregate expenditure remains in force when other assets and credit are introduced and when the time structure is generalized to allow overlapping income periods of differing lengths most of the objections to the finance constraint are shown to involve fallacies of composition there are economists to whom a constraint of the form pc m in units t must appear unthinkable r e lucas jr 1980

symposium on spatial competition and the theory of differentiated markets inclusion of assumptions of the hotelling losch approach spatial price discrimination in the greenhut ohta approach analysis of quality choice spatial approach that typically implies partition of the buyers in sales areas which do not overlap from ebsco

place your bets towards an understanding of globalisation socio financial engineering and competition within a financial centre globalisation and technical change increase the intensity of competition within and between financial centres already subject to competitive pressures from an apparently highly mobile financial cap

stabilization and adjustment in a small open economy ireland 1979 1995 at the end of the 1970s the irish economy was faced with an unsustainable current account deficit rising unemployment high inflation and a rapidly increasing public debt by the mid 1990s ireland s growth rate was the highest in the oecd unemployment was declining rapidly the current account was in surplus and the country seemed likely to meet the maastricht financial and fiscal convergence criteria domestic absorption has been sharply reduced despite a mild appreciation of the real exchange rate external competitiveness measured in terms of relative unit wage costs in a common currency improved dramatically owing to the sharp increase in the share of foreign direct investment fdi in total capital formation while the fiscal correction of the late 1980s helped restore private sector confidence and was indispensable for progress on financial convergence the boost to labour productivity given by the increased inflow of fdi is credited with the key role in the economy s transformation copyright 1996 by oxford university press

losers and winners in economic growth this paper examines the growth rates in 116 economies from 1965 to 1985 it finds that the lowest quintile had an average growth rate of real gross domestic product gdp per capita of 1 3 percent whereas the highest quintile averaged 4 8 percent the authors isolate five influences that discriminate reasonably well between slow and fast growers a conditional convergence effect whereby a country grows faster if it begins with lower real gdp per capita in relation to its initial level of human capital in the forms of educational attainment and health a positive effect on growth from a high ratio of investment to gdp although this effect is weaker than that reported in some previous studies a negative effect from excessively large government a negative effect from government induced distortions of markets and a negative effect from political instability overall the fitted growth rates for eighty five economies for 1965 85 had a correlation of 0 8 with the actual values the authors also find that female educational attainment has a pronounced negative effect on fertility whereas female and male attainment are each positively related to life expectancy and negatively related to infant mortality

europe 1992 issues and prospects for the financial markets financial markets vittorio grilli one potential effect of the integration of european financial markets concerns the geographical location of financial hot spots it is likely that liberalization will tend to promote countries with already large and well developed international financial markets attracting the residents of smaller countries these markets will become larger and more liquid and thus even more appealing it is very unlikely that other european countries could design policies apt to threaten london s supremacy as the main european financial centre while the article focuses on the market for bank deposits similar considerations apply to other financial markets it appears that a large part of cross country bank deposits are explained by country specific factors such as particular institutional arrangements in the areas of capital controls tax regulations and secrecy laws however the relative importance of these factors varies between inter bank deposits and non bank deposits taxation and banking secrecy matter for non bank deposits while the very size of the economy influences inter bank deposits finally imperfect competition and switching costs imply that more intense competition wilt be felt primarily in the market for large deposits small deposit contracts will probably be unaffected by liberalization at least in the short run

competing for a duopoly international trade and tax competition we analyse the tax subsidy competition between two potential host governments to attract the plants of rms in a duopolistic industry competition between identical countries for a monopoly rm s plant is known to result in subsidy in ation which leaves the winning country indierent towards hosting the rm in sharp contrast we show that with two rms both are taxed in equilibrium and the host countries appropriate the entire social surplus generated within the industry despite the explicit non cooperation between governments we extend our baseline model to allow for dierences in country size we investigate when this size asymmetry becomes su ciently large to change the nature of the equilibrium inducing concentration of production in the larger country

portfolio capital flows hot or cold a distinction is often made between short term and long term capital flows the former are deemed unstable hot money and the latter are deemed stable cold money using time series analysis of balance of payments data for five industrial and five developing countries we find that in most cases the labels short term and long term do not provide any information about the time series properties of the flow in particular long term flows are often as volatile as short term flows and the time it takes for an unexpected shock to a flow to die out is similar across flows long term flows are also at least as unpredictable as short term flows and knowledge of the type of flow does not improve the ability to forecast the aggregate capital account copyright 1995 by oxford university press

dual equilibria and discontinuous response in monopolistic competition with two classes of consumers the possibility of a convex industry demand function s leading to two local profit maxima for a monopolist supplier is found to extend to a model of monopolistic competition where two classes of consumers are distinguished by their relative demand for the industry s products a long run free entry industry equilibrium is defined and discontinuous responses to changes in parameters are analyzed some applications are given and the existence of dual equilibria is shown to be a possibility

asset pricing implications of a new keynesian model to match the stylised facts of goods and labour markets the canonical new keynesian model augments the optimising neoclassical growth model with nominal and real rigidities we ask what the implications of this type of model are for asset prices using a second order numerical solution to the model we examine bond and equity returns the equity risk premium and the behaviour of the real and nominal term structure we catalogue the factors that are most important for determining the size of risk premia and the slope and level of the yield curve in a world of technology shocks only increasing the degree of real rigidities raises risk premia and increasing nominal rigidities reduces risk premia in a world of monetary policy shocks only both real and nominal rigidities raise risk premia the results indicate that the implications of the new keynesian model for average asset returns depend critically on the

can the east asian model of development be generalized abstract export led growth has become increasingly popular among analysts and some governments as a development strategy besides contrasting its virtues to the distortions of the import substitution model popular through the 1960s advocates of the model frequently illustrate its merits by pointing to the remarkable success of its most prominent practitioners the east asian gang of four hong kong korea singapore and taiwan this study explores a possible limitation of the model known as the fallacy of composition while the model may work well if pursued by a limited number of countries it may break down if a large majority of developing countries seeks to pursue it at the same time because the resulting outpouring of manufactured exports might be more than western markets could absorb protectionist response might be the result of attempts to generalize the east asian export model of growth

globalization outsourcing and wage inequality there is considerable debate over whether international trade has contributed to the declining economic fortunes of less skilled workers one issue that has become lost in the current discussion is how firms respond to import competition and how these responses in turn are transmitted to the labor market in previous work we have argued that outsourcing by which we mean the import of intermediate inputs by domestic firms has contributed to an increase in the relative demand for skilled labor in the united states if firms respond to import competition from low wage countries by moving non skill intensive activities abroad then trade will shift employment towards skilled workers within industries in this paper we extend our previous work by combining new import data from the revised nber trade database with disaggregated data on input purchases from the census of manufactures we construct industry by industry estimates of outsourcing for the period 1972 1990 and reexamine whether outsourcing has contributed to an increase in relative demand for skilled labor our main finding is that outsourcing can account for 31 51 of the increase in the relative demand for skilled labor that occurred in u s manufacturing industries during the 1980s compared to our previous estimate of 15 33 this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the switching effect of environmental taxation within bertrand differentiated duopoly we investigate second best optimal taxation of the polluting variety of a product in a bertrand duopoly with differentiated varieties the analysis provides novel insight on a useful social function of environmental regulation besides internalizing the environmental externality the taxation of the polluting variety improves the matching of consumers and product varieties and so creates a socially desirable business switching between the differentiated varieties

a dynamic specific factors model with money when the capital stock is endogenously chosen by optimizing households the predictions of the static specific factors model are modified an increase in tariffs unambiguously increases real wages whereas an expansion of the labor force does not reduce wages capital and land are not only factors of production but also assets and their shares in the household s portfolio are determined by features of the supply side time preference and inflation an increase in inflation reduces the capital stock but its impact on the price of land is ambiguous because of opposite movements in the inflation tax and in land rents

intra industry trade and investment under oligopoly the role of market size this paper examines the factors which influence intra industry trade under oligopoly it argues that major determinants are the size of markets and the height of trade barriers if national markets are large and trade barriers high intra industry trade is replaced by cross investment between countries whereby firms serve the markets of their foreign rivals by investing abroad instead of exporting this result is established formally using a simple two country two firm game theoretic model the same model is also used to examine how barriers to trade influence prices and output the paper concludes with a brief discussion of how economic growth affects the volume of intra industry trade copyright 1992 by royal economic society

the forward premium puzzle in a model of imperfect information abstract this paper studies the forward premium puzzle in a model with imperfect information the model predicts fixed effects and conditional heteroskedasticity in the forward premium regression and provides a rationale for the evidence in mayfield and murphy mayfield e s murphy r g 1992 interest rate parity and the exchange risk premium economics letters 40 319 324

deposit insurance and international bank liabilities abstract this paper examines the responsiveness of external bank liabilities to deposit insurance policies for a sample of developed countries external bank liabilities held by non banks are found to increase after the introduction of explicit deposit insurance deposit insurance schemes tend to exclude interbank deposits from coverage and the response of external interbank liabilities to deposit insurance appears to be varied neither external non bank nor external interbank liabilities are found to be materially affected by deposit insurance design this suggests that international competition in the area of deposit insurance design as possible under the eu deposit insurance directive of 1994 would be fruitless