the labour augmented k s model a laboratory for the analysis of institutional and policy regimes abstract in this work we discuss the research findings from the labour augmented schumpeter meeting keynes k s agent based model it comprises comparative dynamics experiments on an artificial economy populated by heterogeneous interacting agents as workers firms banks and the government the exercises are characterized by different degrees of labour flexibility or by institutional shocks entailing labour market structural reforms wherein the phenomenon of hysteresis is endogenous and pervasive the k s model constitutes a laboratory to evaluate the effects of new institutional arrangements as active passive labour market policies and fiscal austerity in this perspective the model allows mimicking many of the customary policy responses which the european union and many latin american countries have embraced in reaction to the recent economic crises the obtained results seem to indicate however that most of the proposed policies are likely inadequate to tackle the short term crises consequences and even risk demoting the long run economic prospects more objectively the conclusions offer a possible explanation to the negative path traversed by economies like brazil where many of the mentioned policies were applied in a short period and hint about some risks ahead

estimating the foreclosure effect of exclusive dealing evidence from the entry of specialty beer producers this paper estimates an entry model to study the effect of exclusive dealing between anheuser busch and its distributors on rival brewers entry decisions and consumer surplus the entry model accounts for post entry demand conditions and strategic spillover effects i recover a brewer s fixed costs using a two step estimator and find spillover effects on brewers entry decisions i find that a brewer has higher fixed costs at locations where anheuser busch employ exclusive distributors but the effect is only statistically significant in certain local areas the estimates also show that a brewer is less likely to enter a location that is farther from its brewery has lower expected demand or is smaller in store size i implement counterfactual experiments to study the effect of banning exclusive contracts between anheuser busch and its distributors the results show that the welfare improvement associated with banning such contracts is very small

is the long run relationship between economic growth electricity consumption carbon dioxide emissions and financial development in gulf cooperation council countries robust the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions economic growth electricity consumption and financial development in the gulf cooperation council gcc countries is investigated in this study using panel data for the period of 1980 2012 a number of econometric techniques dynamic ordinary least squares dols fully modified ordinary least squares fmols and the dynamic fixed effect model dfe are applied in order to estimate the long run relationship between the variables the long run relationship is found to be robust across these different econometric specifications no significant short run significant relationship was observed electricity consumption and economic growth have a positive long run relationship with carbon dioxide co2 emissions whilst a negative and significant relationship was found between co2 emissions and financial development the findings imply that electricity consumption and economic growth stimulate co2 emissions in gcc countries while financial development reduces it granger causality results reveal that there is a bidirectional causal link between economic growth and co2 emissions and a unidirectional causal link running from electricity consumption to co2 emissions however there is no causal link between financial development and co2 emissions also impulse response and variance decomposition analysis outline forecasted impacts of economic growth and electricity consumption on future co2 emissions

negative intra group externalities in two sided markets two types of agents interact on a pre existing free platform agents value positively the presence of agents of the other type but may value negatively the presence of agents of their own type we ask whether a new platform can find fees and subsidies so as to divert agents from the existing platform and make a profit we show that this might be impossible if intra group negative externalities are sufficiently but not too strong with respect to positive inter group externalities

platform competition in two sided markets many if not most markets with network externalities are two sided to succeed platforms in industries such as software portals and media payment systems and the internet must get both sides of the market on board accordingly platforms devote much attention to their business model that is to how they court each side while making money overall this paper builds a model of platform competition with two sided markets it unveils the determinants of price allocation and end user surplus for different governance structures profit maximizing platforms and not for profit joint undertakings and compares the outcomes with those under an integrated monopolist and a ramsey planner jel l5 l82 l86 l96

fiscal and monetary policies in complex evolving economies what is the most appropriate combination of fiscal and monetary policies in economies subject to banking crises and deep recessions we study this issue using an agent based model that is able to reproduce a wide array of macro and micro empirical regularities simulation results suggest that policy mixes associating unconstrained counter cyclical fiscal policy and monetary policy targeting employment is required to stabilise the economy we also show that discipline guided fiscal rules can be self defeating as they depress the economy without improving public finances finally we find that the effects of monetary and fiscal policies become sharper as the level of income inequality increases

exclusive dealing with network effects abstract this paper explores the ability of an incumbent to use introductory offers to dominate a market in the face of a more efficient rival when network effects rather than scale economies are present both in the case of one sided and two sided markets for introductory offers to be profitable when consumers can multihome they need to be discriminatory and exclusive in this setting exclusivity as opposed to just commitment to purchase is critical consumers must commit not to purchase from the rival in the future in order that introductory offers can work the use of such contracts is anticompetitive and inefficient but does not necessarily result in complete foreclosure

when more flexibility yields more fragility the microfoundations of keynesian aggregate unemployment abstract wages are an element of cost crucially affecting the competitiveness of individual firms but the wage bill is also a crucial element of aggregate demand hence it could be that more flexible and fluid labour markets while allowing for faster inter firm reallocation of labour may also render the whole economic system more fragile more prone to recession and more volatile in this work we investigate some conditions under which such a conjecture applies the paper presents an agent based model that investigates the effects of two archetypes of capitalism in terms of regimes of labour governance defined by the mechanisms of wage determination firing labour protection and productivity gains sharing upon i labour market regularities and ii macroeconomic dynamics long term rates of growth gdp fluctuations unemployment rates inequality etc the model is built upon the keynes meets schumpeter family of models dosi et al 2010 explicitly incorporating different microfounded labour market regimes our results show that seemingly more rigid labour markets and labour relations are conducive to coordination successes leading to higher and smoother growth

european economic governance the berlin washington consensus this paper argues that the european union has gone farther than any other country or institution in internalizing the prescriptions of the washington consensus embedding neo liberal principles in the treaties defining its governance the eu has enshrined a peculiar doctrine within its constitution we further argue that this berlin washinghton consensus has serious empirical and theoretical flaws as its reliance on pareto optimality leads to neglect the crucial links between current and potential growth we show by means of a simple model that the call for structural reforms as an engine for growth may be controversial once current and potential output are related we claim that adherence to the consensus may go a long way in explaining the poor growth performance of the european economy in the past two decades because of the constraints that it imposed on fiscal and monetary policies the same constraints have deepened the eurozone crisis that started in 2007 putting unwarranted emphasis on austerity and reform challenging the consensus becomes a precondition for avoiding the implosion of the euro and recovering growth

chicken and egg competition among intermediation service providers we analyze a model of imperfect price competition between intermediation service providers we insist on features that are relevant for informational intermediation via the internet the presence of indirect network externalities the possibility of using the nonexclusive services of several intermediaries and the widespread practice of price discrimination based on users identity and on usage efficient market structures emerge in equilibrium as well as some specific form of inefficient structures intermediaries have incentives to propose non exclusive services as this moderates competition and allows them to exert market power we analyze in detail the pricing and business strategies followed by intermediation services providers copyright 2003 by the rand corporation

naked exclusion efficient breach and downstream competition previous papers by eric b rasmusen j mark ramseyer and john s wiley jr 1991 and ilya r segal and michael d whinston 2000 argue that exclusive contracts can inefficiently deter entry in the presence of scale economies and multiple buyers we first show that these results no longer hold when buyers are final consumers who can breach these contracts and pay expectation damages we then show however that exclusive contracts can inefficiently deter entry if buyers are downstream competitors even in the absence of scale economies and even if breach is possible

exclusive dealing and entry when buyers compete rasmusen et al 1991 and segal and whinston 2000 show that an incumbent monopolist might prevent entry of a more efficient competitor by exploiting externalities among buyers we show that their results hold only when downstream competition among buyers is weak under fierce downstream competition if entry took place a free buyer would become more competitive and increase its output and profits at the expense of buyers that sign an exclusive deal with the incumbent anticipating that orders from a single buyer would trigger entry no buyer will sign the exclusive deal and entry will occur this result is robust across different specifications of the game jel k21 l12 l42

income distribution credit and fiscal policies in an agent based keynesian model this work studies the interactions between income distribution and monetary and fiscal policies in terms of ensuing dynamics of macro variables gdp growth unemployment etc on the grounds of an agent based keynesian model the direct ancestor of this work is the keynes meeting schumpeter formalism presented in dosi et al 2010 to that model we add a banking sector and a monetary authority setting interest rates and credit lending conditions the model combines keynesian mechanisms of demand generation a schumpeterian innovation fueled process of growth and minskian credit dynamics the robustness of the model is checked against its capability to jointly account for a large set of empirical regularities both at the micro level and at the macro one the model is able to catch salient features underlying the current as well as previous recessions the impact of financial factors and the role in them of income distribution we find that different income distribution regimes heavily affect macroeconomic performance more unequal economies are exposed to more severe business cycles fluctuations higher unemployment rates and higher probability of crises on the policy side fiscal policies do not only dampen business cycles reduce unemployment and the likelihood of experiencing a huge crisis in some circumstances they also affect positively long term growth further the more income distribution is skewed toward profits the greater the effects of fiscal policies about monetary policy we find a strong non linearity in the way interest rates affect macroeconomic dynamics in one regime with low rates changes in interest rates are ineffective up to a threshold beyond which increasing the interest rate implies smaller output growth rates and larger output volatility unemployment and likelihood of crises

where modern macroeconomics went wrong this paper provides a critique of the dsge models that have come to dominate macroeconomics during the past quarter century it argues that at the heart of the failure were the wrong microfoundations which failed to incorporate key aspects of economic behaviour e g incorporating insights from information economics and behavioural economics inadequate modelling of the financial sector meant they were ill suited for predicting or responding to a financial crisis and a reliance on representative agent models meant they were ill suited for analysing either the role of distribution in fluctuations and crises or the consequences of fluctuations on inequality the paper proposes alternative benchmark models that may be more useful both in understanding deep downturns and responding to them

are output growth rate distributions fat tailed some evidence from oecd countries this work explores some distributional properties of aggregate output growth rate time series we show that in the majority of oecd countries output growth rate distributions are well approximated by symmetric exponential power densities with tails much fatter than those of a gaussian fat tails robustly emerge in output growth rates independently of i the way we measure aggregate output ii the family of densities employed in the estimation iii the length of time lags used to compute growth rates we also show that fat tails still characterize output growth rate distributions even after one washes away outliers autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity

exclusive dealing and entry when buyers compete comment in this paper fm s equilibrium analysis is shown to contain some errors fixing these errors changes their conclusions for some of the cases they consider exclusive deals written between an incumbent and competitive downstream buyers will still often arise in equilibrium thereby block ing efficient entry inefficient exclusion arises to protect industry profits from competition the issue centers on how competition works when upstream firms sell to consumers through two com peting downstream buyers in the case upstream firms can offer downstream buyers two part tariffs the analysis of competition in this setting turns out to be surprisingly subtle and the analysis here should be of more general interest to those modeling competition in vertical settings the particular model fm consider is based on the cost specification in segal and whinston 2000 sect iv in which the incumbent faces a potential entrant that has a lower cost of production but faces some fixed cost of entry two identical downstream buyers compete in prices for final consum ers exclusive deals involve the incumbent offering buyers a fixed compensation for agreeing not to purchase from the entrant fm derive their results under two different assumptions on wholesale pricing upstream firms are required to set linear wholesale prices section i and upstream firms are allowed to offer two part tariff contracts section ii since restricting upstream firms to charge linear wholesale prices to buyers seems inconsistent with assuming the incumbent can offer exclu sive contracts with a fixed compensation in the initial stage and since linear wholesale prices can lead to double marginalization problems the focus in this paper is on the less restrictive case consid ered by fm where upstream firms are allowed to offer downstream buyers two part tariffs 1 in this setting correcting fm s analysis shows that entry arises only when scale economies are not too important and the entrant s efficiency advantage is sufficiently large when either

economic growth energy consumption financial development international trade and co2 emissions in indonesia this study examines the linkages among economic growth energy consumption financial development trade openness and co2 emissions over the period of 1975q1 2011q4 in the case of indonesia the stationary analysis is performed by using zivot andrews structural break unit root test and the ardl bounds testing approach for a long run relationship between the series in the presence of structural breaks the causal relation between the concerned variable is examined by the vecm granger causality technique and robustness of causal analysis is tested by innovative accounting approach iaa our results confirm that the variables are cointegrated it means that the long run relationship exists in the presence of structural break stemming in the series the empirical findings indicate that economic growth and energy consumption increases co2 emissions while financial development and trade openness compact it the vecm causality analysis has shown the feedback hypothesis between energy consumption and co2 emissions economic growth and co2 emissions are also interrelated i e bidirectional causality financial development granger causes co2 emissions the study opens up a new policy insights to control the environment from degradation by using energy efficient technologies financial development and trade openness can also play their role in improving the environmental quality

technology adoption in the presence of network externalities we analyze technology adoption in industries where network externalities are significant the pattern of adoption depends on whether technologies are sponsored a sponsor is an entity that has property rights to the technology and hence is willing to make investments to promote it key findings include the following 1 compatibility tends to be undersupplied by the market but excessive standardization can occur 2 in the absence of sponsors the technology superior today has a strategic advantage and is likely to dominate the market 3 when one of two rival technologies is sponsored that technology has a strategic advantage and may be adopted even if it is inferior 4 when two competing technologies both are sponsored the technology that will be superior tomorrow has a strategic advantage

faraway so close coupled climate and economic dynamics in an agent based integrated assessment model abstract in this work we develop an agent based model that offers an alternative to standard computable general equilibrium integrated assessment models iams the dystopian schumpeter meeting keynes dsk model is composed of heterogeneous firms belonging to capital good consumption good and energy sectors production and energy generation lead to greenhouse gas emissions which affect temperature dynamics climate damages are modelled at the individual level as stochastic shocks hitting workers labour productivity energy efficiency capital stock and inventories of firms in that aggregate damages emerge from the aggregation of losses suffered by heterogeneous interacting and boundedly rational agents the model is run focusing on a business as usual carbon intensive scenario consistent with a representative concentration pathway 8 5 we find that the dsk model is able to account for a wide ensemble of micro and macro empirical regularities concerning both economic and climate dynamics simulation experiments show a substantial lack of isomorphism between the effects of micro and macro level shocks as it is typical in complex system models in particular different types of shocks have heterogeneous impact on output growth unemployment rate and the likelihood of economic crises pointing to the importance of the different economic channel affected by the shock overall we report much larger climate damages than those projected by standard iams under comparable scenarios suggesting possible shifts in the growth dynamics from a self sustained pattern to stagnation and high volatility and the need of urgent policy interventions

investigating the validity of pollution haven hypothesis in the gulf cooperation council gcc countries this study investigated the validity of the pollution haven hypothesis in the gulf cooperation council gcc countries using a multivariate framework to achieve the goal of this study the non stationary panel techniques were used to examine the hypothesis from 1980 to 2009 based on the pedroni cointegration test results it was found that the variables are cointegrated moreover the fully modified ols results showed that energy consumption and gdp growth increase co2 emission while foreign direct investment inflows have a long run negative relationship with co2 emission furthermore based on the short run granger causality test results fdi has no short run causal relationship with co2 emission and energy consumption while energy consumption and gdp growth have a positive causal relationship with co2 emission thus the results of this study indicate that energy consumption and gdp growth are the source of pollution in the gcc countries and not the foreign direct investment inflows thus the study recommended that these countries should utilize policies to encourage inward foreign investment since it plays an important role in stimulating gdp growth

coordination and discrimination in contracting with externalities divide and conquer abstract the paper studies bilateral contracting between n agents and one principal whose trade with each agent generates externalities on other agents it examines the effects of prohibiting the principal from i coordinating agents on her preferred equilibrium and ii making different contracts available to different agents these effects depend on whether an agent is more or less eager to trade when others trade more the prohibitions reduce the aggregate trade in the former case and have little or no effect in the latter case the inefficiencies under different contracting regimes are linked to the sign of the relevant externalities and are shown to be typically reduced by both prohibitions

two sided markets a progress report the paper provides a road map to the burgeoning literature on two sided markets and presents new results it identifies two sided markets with markets in which the structure and not only the level of prices charged by platforms matters the failure of the coase theorem is necessary but not sufficient for two sidedness the paper builds a model integrating usage and membership externalities that unifies two hitherto disparate strands of the literature emphasizing either form of externality and obtains new results on the mix of membership and usage charges when price setting or bargaining determine payments between end users

causes and consequences of hysteresis aggregate demand productivity and employment in this work we develop an agent based model where hysteresis in major macroeconomic variables e g gross domestic product productivity unemployment emerges out of the decentralized interactions of heterogeneous firms and workers building upon the schumpeter meeting keynes family of models cf in particular dosi et al 2016b 2017c we specify an endogenous process of accumulation of workers skills and a state dependent process of firms entry indeed hysteresis is ubiquitous however this is not due to market imperfections but rather to the very functioning of decentralized economies characterized by coordination externalities and dynamic increasing returns so contrary to the insider outsider hypothesis blanchard and summers 1986 the model does not support the findings that rigid industrial relations may foster hysteretic behavior in aggregate unemployment on the contrary this contribution provides evidence that during severe downturns and thus declining aggregate demand phenomena like decreasing investment and innovation rates skills deterioration and declining entry dynamics are better candidates to explain long run unemployment spells and reduced output growth in that more rigid labor markets may well dampen hysteretic dynamics by sustaining aggregate demand thus making the economy more resilient

naked exclusion comment the ability of an incumbent firm to deter entry by writing exclusionary contracts with customers has been a subject of contention in the antitrust literature the courts concern with such exclusionary contracts has been challenged by those who argue that an incumbent faced with buyers whose interest is to promote entry and competition would have to pay buyers more for the inclusion of exclusionary provisions than it could possibly gain from exclusion in a provocative article eric b rasmusen et al 1991 henceforth rrw have argued that an incumbent may in fact be able to exclude rivals profitably using such contractual provisions because it can exploit buyers lack of coordination in essence if buyers expect other buyers to sign such provisions then they may see little reason not to do so themselves the rrw argument is potentially an important one because most alleged instances of entry deterrence through exclusionary contracts with customers occur in situations with multiple buyers unfortunately however rrw s two main results contain errors in this note we reconsider the rrw model providing correct characterizations of the likelihood and cost of exclusion for an incumbent firm our results indicate that while the intuition suggested by rrw is valid the equilibrium likelihood and cost of exclusion differ from what rrw derive moreover our analysis illuminates some further aspects of exclusionary contracting with multiple buyers among these issues we focus on how an incumbent can use discriminatory offers to exploit the externalities that exist among buyers in the provision of competition in section i we review the basic assumptions of the rrw model in sections ii and iii we then consider in turn the cases of simultaneous and sequential offers studied by rrw for the simultaneous model we distinguish between settings in which the incumbent can and cannot discriminate in its offers to different buyers this distinction is the source of the problem in rrw s analysis their simultaneous offer model assumes no discrimination but the proof of their proposition 2 assumes at times that discrimination is feasible we show that absent the ability to discriminate the incumbent can exclude profitably only when buyers fail to coordinate on their most preferred continuation equilibrium in contrast we show that when discrimination is possible the incumbent need not rely on a lack of buyer coordination to segal department of economics landau building stanford university stanford ca 94305 e mail ilya segal stanford edu whinston department of economics northwestern university 2003 sheridan road evanston il 60208 e mail mwhinston nwu edu we thank eric rasmusen john wiley and participants in the berkeley stanford iofest the university of copenhagen vertical restraints conference and a seminar at the antitrust division of the u s department of justice for helpful comments we thank federico echenique for excellent research assistance 1 for example a recent department of justice investigation concerned the use of exclusive contracts by the leading provider of computerized ticketing services ticketmaster most major cities have several large concert sports venues in many cities ticketmaster has exclusive contracts with a very large share of these venues 2 the other leading response to the argument that contracts with buyers cannot be a profitable method of exclusion is given in philippe aghion and patrick bolton 1987 section i one factor limiting the applicability of the aghion and bolton theory however is that it involves partial exclusion the contracts signed are not fully exclusionary they involve finite stipulated damages and the profitability of the strategy arises from extracting rents from an entrant when entry occurs indeed in the aghion and bolton model contracts that fully exclude offer no benefits over writing no contract at all in section iii of their paper aghion and bolton also discuss a two buyer version of their model in which externalities arise across buyers in contrast to the analysis here and in rrw they allow the incumbent to make an offer to a buyer i that is conditional on the acceptance decision of the other buyer 3 r innes and r j sexton 1994 also discuss the use of discriminatory offers in the context of a model in which buyers can form coalitions with the entrant

does higher economic and financial development lead to environmental degradation evidence from bric countries abstract a vast number of studies addressed the environmental degradation and economic development but not financial development moreover as argued by stern 2004 the rise and fall of the environmental kuznets curve world development 32 1419 1439 they present important econometric weaknesses using standard reduced form modeling approach and controlling for country specific unobserved heterogeneity we investigate the linkage between not only economic development and environmental quality but also the financial development panel data over period 1992 2004 is used we find that both economic and financial development are determinants of the environmental quality in bric economies we show that higher degree of economic and financial development decreases the environmental degradation our analysis suggests that financial liberalization and openness are essential factors for the co 2 reduction the adoption of policies directed to financial openness and liberalization to attract higher levels of r d related foreign direct investment might reduce the environmental degradation in countries under consideration in addition the robustness check trough the inclusion of us and japan does not alter our main findings

energy consumption carbon emissions and economic growth in china abstract this paper investigates the existence and direction of granger causality between economic growth energy consumption and carbon emissions in china applying a multivariate model of economic growth energy use carbon emissions capital and urban population empirical results for china over the period 1960 2007 suggest a unidirectional granger causality running from gdp to energy consumption and a unidirectional granger causality running from energy consumption to carbon emissions in the long run evidence shows that neither carbon emissions nor energy consumption leads economic growth therefore the government of china can purse conservative energy policy and carbon emissions reduction policy in the long run without impeding economic growth

schumpeter meeting keynes a policy friendly model of endogenous growth and business cycles this paper studies an agent based model that bridges keynesian theories of demandgeneration and schumpeterian theories of technology fueled economic growth we employ the model to investigate the properties of macroeconomic dynamics and the impact of public polices on supply demand and the fundamentals of the economy we find profound complementarities between factors influencing aggregate demand and drivers of technological change that affect both short run fluctuations and longterm growth patterns from a normative point of view simulations show a corresponding complementarity between keynesian and schumpeterian policies in sustaining long run growth paths characterized by milder fluctuations and relatively lower unemployment levels the matching or mismatching between innovative exploration of new technologies and the conditions of demand generation appear to suggest the presence of two distinct regimes of growth or absence thereof characterized by different short run fluctuations and unemployment levels