a theoretical and empirical analysis of family migration and household production reply of her household production as factors in the family s migration decisions 38 in this paper the research on family migration will be extended in three ways a formal model of household production and family migration will be developed and used to generate testable hypotheses about family migration variables which otherwise would not have a clear economic interpretation are incorporated into the model the model will then be estimated and some policy implications will be discussed one policy implication concerns the efficiency of the labor market labor market efficiency needs to be judged not only in terms of the efficiency of the job search of single individuals but also in terms of the efficiency of the joint job search of double income families this paper is organized into five sections first a comparative static household production model of locational choice is developed 2 next this model of locational choice is used to develop a theoretical model of family migration third the data and empirical model are discussed fourth the empirical results are reported and interpreted in terms of three different types of migration estimates of the impact of selected variables on the distance of the move are also considered the final section summarizes the general findings and offers some policy implications

the causes of preference reversal observed preference reversal cannot be adequately explained by violations of independence the reduction axiom or transitivity the primary cause of preference reversal is the failure of procedure invariance especially the overpricing of low probability high payoff bets this result violates regret theory and generalized nonindependent utility models preference reversal and a new reversal involving time preferences are explained by scale compatibility which implies that payoffs are weighted more heavily in pricing than in choice copyright 1990 by american economic association

misclassified treatment status and treatment effects an application to returns to education in the united kingdom abstract we study the impact of misreported treatment status on the estimation of causal treatment effects focusing on applications where no additional information or repeated measurements are available we first characterize the bias introduced by misclassification on the average treatment effect on the treated att under a conditional independence assumption in both a binary and a multiple treatment setting we find that the bias of matching type estimators computed from misclassified data cannot in general be signed we subsequently provide easily implementable methods to bound the att of interest semiparametrically in particular allowing for very general forms of impact heterogeneity and of the no treatment outcome equations as well as for some dependence of the misreporting probabilities on individual characteristics the empirical problem that motivates our paper is the estimation of the wage returns to a number of educational qualifications in the united kingdom allowing for misreporting in a

the optimality of consumer stockpiling strategies the ability of consumers to make rational sequential purchase quantity decisions under imperfect knowledge about future prices in a product category is explored normatively a consumer should make such decisions by defining a series of reservation prices which define how many buying periods supply should be held given an observed price an experiment is reported in which consumers make sequential purchase quantity decisions under variations in the shape of the distribution of prices and its trend over time results suggest a number of systematic deviations from optimality when facing stationary uniform and bimodal price distributions for example subjects tend to systematically overbuy when small purchases are called for and underbuy when large purchases are called for likewise when facing ascending or descending series behavior is the opposite of that predicted by the normative analysis there is an increasing tendency to defer purchases given increasing prices and accelerate purchases given descending prices an explanation for the findings in terms of a prospect theory type loss function in expenditures is offered

the ellsberg paradox and risk aversion an anticipated utility approach the paper describes a decision process under which it is rational to prefer a lottery with known probabilities to a similar ambiguous lottery where the decision maker does not know the exact values of the probabilities the ellsberg paradox this is done by modeling ambiguous lotteries as two stage lotteries by assuming the independence axiom without the reduction of compound lotteries axiom and by using the anticipated utility functional this paper also gives conditions under which less ambiguity is preferred and presents some comparative statics analysis as well as some inter personal comparisons finally it proves that within the anticipated utility framework risk and ambiguity are almost identical copyright 1987 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

does the preference reversal phenomenon necessarily contradict the independence axiom one of the most puzzling paradoxes in decision theory is the preference reversal phenomenon this phenomenon seems to contradict the transitivity axiom for a long time one of the cornerstones of utility theory this paradox is established whenever a decision maker prefers lottery x to lottery y but is willing to put a lower selling price on x than on y such experiments first reported by harold lindman 1971 and sarah lichtenstein and paul slovic 1971 were repeated by david grether and charles plott 1979 werner pommerehne et al 1982 and robert reilly 1982 although the later researchers improved the mechanism through which the selling price emerges they all found systematic reversals a new approach to this problem was developed by charles holt 1986 and edi karni and zvi safra 1987 from two different starting points these authors showed that the preference reversal phenomenon does not necessarily prove a violation of the transitivity axiom as it may contradict the independence axiom this implies that people do not maximize expected utility but in that case the preference reversal phenomenon becomes just another evidence against expected utility theory but not against the transitivity axiom these results have their own disadvantages although the independence axiom is not as fundamental as transitivity it is nevertheless very appealing on normative grounds of course the preference reversal phenomenon necessarily contradicts at least one of the assumptions of expected utility theory but empirical evidence shows that despite its normative appeal violations of the reduction of compound lotteries axiom may happen see for example joshua ronen 1971 and doug snowball and clif brown 1979 in this paper i therefore suggest a decision mechanism for the preference reversals lotteries which is transitive and satisfies the independence axiom but not the reduction axiom

the higher returns to formal education for entrepreneurs versus employees how valuable is formal education for entrepreneurs income relative to employees and if the income returns to formal education are different for entrepreneurs vis a vis employees what might be a plausible explanation to explore these questions we analyze a large representative us panel we show that entrepreneurs have higher returns to formal education than employees we refer to this as the entrepreneurship returns puzzle we run post hoc analyses to explore a number of potential explanations of this puzzle indirectly our analysis indicates that the higher returns to formal education for entrepreneurs might be due to the fewer organizational constraints they face leading to more personal control over how to use their human capital compared to employees

preference reversals and the independence axiom of all of the paradoxical patterns of behavior reported in laboratory experiments one of the most perplexing for decision theorists is the preference reversal phenomenon a subject in a preference reversal experiment is typically given a choice between a lottery with a high probability of winning a modest amount of money a p bet and a lottery with a low probability of winning a large amount of money a bet the lowest amount of money for which the subject would willingly sell either of these lotteries is also elicited the most common reversal is for a subject to choose the p bet over the bet but to put a higher selling price on the bet preference reversals were first reported by harold lindman 1971 and sarah lichtenstein and paul slovic 1971 in discussing the psychologists discovery of such reversals david grether and charles plott remark the inconsistency is deeper than mere lack of transitivity or even stochastic transitivity it suggests that no optimization principles of any sort lie behind even the simplest of human choices 1979 p 623 this paper offers a simple alternative explanation of documented preference reversals an explanation that does not require the abandonment of the transitivity assumption

are preferences monotonic testing some predictions of regret theory in this paper the authors demonstrate that the assumption of regret aversion which has been invoked in regret theory to explain several well documented violations of expected utility theory also implies the existence of strict preferences between some stochastically equivalent actions and implies certain systematic violations of monotonicity the authors report an experimental test of these predictions they find that while choices between stochastically equivalent actions are entirely consistent with expected utility theory there is clear evidence of the monotonicity violations predicted by regret theory copyright 1992 by the london school of economics and political science

do ethics matter tax compliance and morality in this article we argue that puzzle of tax compliance can be explained at least in part by recognizing the typically neglected role of ethics in individual behavior that is individuals do not always behave as the selfish rational self interested individuals portrayed in the standard neoclassical paradigm but rather are often motivated by many other factors that have as their main foundation some aspects of ethics we argue that it is not possible to understand fully an individual s compliance decisions without considering in some form these ethical dimensions specifically we argue here that there is much direct and indirect evidence that ethics differ across individuals and that these differences matter in significant ways for their compliance decisions we then put this in the larger context of the inability of the standard neoclassical paradigm to explain compliance of at least some individuals and we suggest several possible avenues by which theory can be expanded to incorporate ethics we conclude by arguing that a full house of compliance strategies is needed to combat tax evasion strategies that include the traditional enforcement paradigm suggested by and consistent with neoclassical theory a less traditional service paradigm that recognizes the important role of a kinder and gentler tax administration in encouraging compliance and importantly a new trust paradigm that is built on the foundation of ethics in which the tax administration must recognize that it can erode the ethics of taxpayers by its own decisions

decreasing risk aversion and mean variance analysis on formule un ensemble de postulats d aversion pour le risque absolu decroissant et on montre que seules les fonctionnelles d utilite moyenne variance peuvent les satisfaire

which factors influence the expansion of bioenergy an empirical study of the investment behaviours of german farmers the german government is planning to increase the share of renewable energy sources in this context it is important to understand the decision making behaviour of farmers regarding investments in renewable energy systems that generate energy from biomass and farmers reactions to investment support measures to study this behaviour we conduct a survey and confront farmers with a hypothetical opportunity to invest in a biogas plant our findings reveal that farmers have heterogeneous investment thresholds their investment decisions are mainly driven by capital costs and the subjective perception of the risk resulting from the investment other decision parameters like sustainability and non monetary objectives that are also examined in this paper play only minor roles however bounded rationality is an important factor moreover the influence of an investment subsidy was analysed only about half of the amount of the subsidy as expected according to normative forecast models is reflected in an increased willingness to invest furthermore farmers who have previously invested in bioenergy plants show lower investment thresholds and have stronger reactions to the subsidy regarding the expansion of renewable energies these findings are meaningful for policy impact analysis

economic theory of choice and the preference reversal phenomenon a reexamination in a recent issue of this review david grether and charles plott 1979 hereinafter referred to as g p presented a series of experiments that show that individual decisions are made in a manner inconsistent with standard preference theory this inconsistency can be illustrated by the following example individuals under suitable laboratory conditions first have a choice between a lottery with a high probability of winning a small sum of money the p bet probability bet and a lottery with a high stake but low probability of winning the m bet money bet after indicating a preference for one of the lotteries in the pair the same subjects are then asked to place a monetary value on each of the individual lotteries grether and plott found that a large number of participants stated a preference for the p bet in the first round but placed a higher value on the other lottery the m bet in the second round this behavior a preference reversal is inconsistent with the traditional statements of preference theory

migrant information job search and the remigration decision labor force migration poses two important questions for the economist the first concerns the nature magnitude and direction of labor force response to perceived earnings differentials over space the latter and more complex question concerns the effectiveness or efficiency of this response namely migration and other market mechanisms in reducing these earnings differentials over time both questions are addressed in this paper by examining relationships among 1 quality of information obtained prior to a move 2 search duration at the migration destination and 3 the likelihood of subsequent perhaps corrective remigration these relationships are analyzed using the human capital model of migration remigration and data from the 1970 u s census excerpt

decision making under uncertainty and the evolution of interdependent preferences abstract this paper finds support for the evolution of interdependent preferences under natural selection from a perhaps surprising source decision making under uncertainty individuals choose from sets of risky alternatives the lotteries may involve either idiosyncratic risk or aggregate uncertainty or both robson j econ theory 68 1996 397 424 gives the evaluation criterion for lotteries that maximizes reproductive value and shows that it does not satisfy the expected utility theorem cooper and kaplan j theoret biol 94 1982 135 151 have demonstrated that when lotteries are aggregate the optimal decision rule involves randomization this paper reexamines robson s evaluation criterion using it to solve for the optimal amount of randomization the solution is characterized and an interpretation is offered that links maximizing reproductive value to maximizing expected relative offspring it is shown that when agents preferences arise from their own offspring relative to the average within the population a game is constructed out of the choice of lotteries and that the unique nash equilibrium distribution of actions maximizes reproductive value journal of economic literature classification numbers c72 d71 d81

do education and income really explain inequalities in health applying a twin design we apply a twin design to examine the relationship between health and education andincome the estimated associations between health and education and income controlling forunobserved endowments

framing the allais paradox as a daily farm decision problem tests and explanations the well known allais paradox is reformulated as a daily farm decision problem only 26 of the farmers exhibit violations of the expected utility hypothesis moreover the tendency for violation decreases with the farm operator s education experience and family size no effects of the farm main crop or its scale were detected finally when taking into account the possibility of choice errors we find that the violation rate is statistically insignificant

disappointment in decision making under uncertainty decision analysis requires that two equally desirable consequences should have the same utility and vice versa most analyses of financial decision making presume that two consequences with the same dollar outcome will be equally preferred however winning the top prize of 10 000 in a lottery may leave one much happier than receiving 10 000 as the lowest prize in a lottery this paper explores the implications of disappointment a psychological reaction caused by comparing the actual outcome of a lottery to one s prior expectations for decision making under uncertainty explicit recognition that decision makers may be paying a premium to avoid potential disappointment provides an interpretation for some known behavioral paradoxes and suggests that decision makers may be sensitive to the manner in which a lottery is resolved the concept of disappointment is integrated into utility theory in a prescriptive model

the fourfold pattern of risk attitudes in choice and pricing tasks we examine the robustness of the fourfold pattern of risk attitudes under two elicitation procedures we find that individuals are on average risk seeking over low probability gains and high probability losses and risk averse over high probability gains and low probability losses when we elicit prices for the gambles however a choice based elicitation procedure where participants choose between a gamble and its expected value yields individual decisions that are indistinguishable from random choice sensitivity to elicitation procedure holds between and within participants and remains when participants are allowed to review and change decisions the price elicitation procedure is more complex this finding may be further evidence that an increase in cognitive load exacerbates behavioural anomalies

market experience eliminates some anomalies and creates new ones we report two experiments which investigate whether experience of decision making in repeated markets purges behaviour of preference reversals we investigate two behavioural mechanisms that may be shaping bids in repeated auctions a tendency to adjust bids towards previously observed market prices and a tendency to reduce bids following bad market outcomes we find little support for the former but strong support for the latter also whilst just enough market exposure eliminates the typical preference reversal phenomenon continued exposure fosters the mirror image anomaly therefore although market experience shapes behaviour in our experiments it does not generally promote consistency with standard preference theory

bargaining and boldness abstract we study a multiperson bargaining problem with general risk preferences through the use of shaked s game of cycling offers with exogenous breakdown if preferences are smooth then as the risk of breakdown vanishes the limiting outcome is one in which bargainers are equally marginally bold where a bargainer s marginal boldness measures his willingness to risk disagreement in return for a marginal improvement in his position under smoothness any ordinal nash solution is an equally marginally bold outcome however unlike the concept of the ordinal nash solution a unique equally marginally bold outcome exists in natural cases in particular if all bargainers have risk averse preferences of the rank dependent expected utility type for these preferences the equally marginally bold outcome maximizes a bargaining power adjusted asymmetric nash product where the degree of asymmetry is determined by the disparity in the marginal valuation of certainty among bargainers journal of economic literature classification numbers c72 c78 d81

actions versus prospects the effect of problem representation on regret suppose that you must choose between lotteries s safer and r riskier shown in the top half of figure 1 there are 100 possible states of the world and the consequence of s and r are indicated for each state the states of the world with the consequence win 8 000 are separate from the states with the consequence win 20 000 you may find s less appealing knowing that if you choose it and one of the states 71 100 occurs you would have received 20 000 had you picked r suppose that you must choose between lotteries s and r shown in the bottom half of figure 1 though the prospects probability distribution of consequences of s and r are identical to those of s and r the states of the world with positive payoffs overlap you may find s more appealing knowing that if you choose it and one of the states 1 30 occurs you would have received 20 000 had you picked r but s pays an 8 000 consolation prize a series of papers by graham loomes 1988a b 1989 and chris starmer and robert sugden 1989 provides evidence that in evaluating identical prospects the juxtaposition of consequences against different states of the world has a systematic effect on choice under uncertainty as predicted by regret theory david e bell 1982 peter c fishburn 1982 loomes and sugden 1982 1987a regret effects violate expected utility theory and all other prospect based theories of choice all of the laboratory evidence of regret or juxtaposition effects however has been generated under the problem representation in figure 1 the matrix of state contingent consequences while loomes 1988b p 468 argues that evidence of regret effects indicates that prospect based theories may all be failing to capture an important element in decision making under uncertainty this paper suggests that the experimental evidence of regret effects observed so far is specific to the matrix problem representation nearly 400 subjects completed versions of two questionnaires in which choice problems were presented in different formats the juxtaposition of consequences sways choices but only under the matrix presentation the first questionnaire indicates that regret effects are not observed when statecontingent consequences are described by ticket numbers rather than a matrix the second questionnaire indicates that if the matrix format is changed slightly to a simple proportional format subjects apparently compare prospects and ignore the juxtaposition of consequences regret theory predicts that choice depends on the juxtaposition of consequences but regret effects should be invariant to different representations of state contingent consequences

the uncertainty effect when a risky prospect is valued less than its worst possible outcome expected utility theory prospect theory and most other models of risky choice are based on the fundamental premise that individuals choose among risky prospects by balancing the value of the possible consequences these models therefore require that the value of a risky prospect lie between the value of that prospect s highest and lowest outcome although this requirement seems essential for any theory of risky decision making we document a violation of this condition in which individuals value a risky prospect less than its worst possible realization this demonstration which we term the uncertainty effect draws from more than 1000 experimental participants and includes hypothetical and real pricing and choice tasks as well as field experiments in real markets with financial incentives our results suggest that there are choice situations in which decision makers discount lotteries for uncertainty in a manner that cannot be accommodated by standard models of risky choice from the time of bernoulli on it has been common to argue that a individuals tend to display aversion to the taking of risks and b that risk aversion in turn is an explanation for many observed phenomena in the economic world arrow 1971 p 90

risk perception in psychology and economics abstract the concept of rationality has been basic to most economic analysis its content has been successively refined over the generations as applied to the static world of certainty it has turned out to be a weak hypothesis not easily refuted and therefore not very useful as an explanation though not literally a tautology but recent decades have seen the development of stronger versions applied to a world in which time and uncertainty are real among its most important manifestations have been criteria for consistency in allocation over time the expected utility hypothesis of behavior under uncertainty and what may be termed the bayesian hypothesis for learning that is the consistent use of conditional probabilities for changing beliefs on the basis of new information these hypotheses have been used widely in offering explanations of empirically observed behavior though as not infrequently in economics the theoretical development has gone much further than the empirical implementation these hypotheses have also been used increasingly in normative analysis as a component of benefit cost studies therefore frequently referred to as benefit risk studies the value of reducing mortality rates from diseases for example has been studied by assuming that choice of occupations is made inter alia by comparing wage differences with mortality differences

rates of return to degrees across british regions o leary n c and sloane p j rates of return to degrees across british regions regional studies earlier papers have found considerable heterogeneity in the returns to degrees in relation to subjects of study degree classification and higher education institution this paper examines heterogeneity of returns across british regions using the labour force survey it finds substantial regional variations in the financial rewards available to graduates with much higher returns in london and the south east than elsewhere adjusting for regional differences in the cost of living narrows such differences considerably decompositional analysis suggests that coefficient effects dominate composition effects consistent with agglomeration and productivity spillover effects being important o leary n c et sloane p j le taux de rendement des diplomes universitaires a travers les regions de la grande bretagne regional studies des articles anterieures ont trouve que le rendement des diplomes universitaires pa

a rule of one a rule ofone one rational person is enough to make a market one irrational person is enough to break a game let me explain the power of the market as an exchange institution rests in its ability to move resources from lowto highvalued uses the market works if one person is rational enough to look for arbitrage opportunities among the other irrational players he buys low and sells high the market collects and disseminates this information such that others

estimating returns to education using twins in urban china abstract this paper empirically estimates the return to education using twins data that the authors collected from urban china our ordinary least squares estimate shows that one year of schooling increases an individual s earnings by 8 4 if we use a within twin fixed effects model the return is reduced to 2 7 but rises to 3 8 after the correction of measurement error these results suggest that a large portion of the estimated returns to education is due to omitted ability or the family effect we further investigate why the true return is low and the omitted ability bias high and find evidence showing that it may be a consequence of china s education system which is highly selective and exam oriented more specifically we find that high school education may mainly serve as a mechanism to select college students but as a human capital investment per se it has low returns in terms of earnings in contrast both vocational school education and college education have a large return that is comparable to that found in the united states

is there a bias toward excess in u s government budgets or deficits do the political institutions of a majoritarian representative democracy and in particular those of the united states systematically produce either levels of public spending or budget deficits that are excessive should u s political institutions be altered by constitutional amendment to deal with these problems i will start by examining the issue of public spending and then turn to the question of budget deficits

a portfolio performance index fund managers may sensibly be averse to earning a time averaged portfolio return that is less than the average return of some designated benchmark when a portfolio is expected to earn a higher average return than the benchmark return the probability that it will not approaches zero asymptotically at a computable exponential decay rate the probability decay rate is thus proposed here as a new portfolio performance index in the widely analyzed special case in which returns are normally distributed the new performance index maximizing portfolio is the same as the popular sharpe ratio maximizing portfolio the results of the two approaches generally differ however because of nonnormal levels of skewness and or kurtosis in the portfolio attributable to large asymmetrical economic shocks or investments in options and other derivative securities an illustrative example will show that the new index is easy to implement and consistent with empirical evidence on portfolio choice favors investments with

the opportunity criterion consumer sovereignty without the assumption of coherent preferences this paper proposes a formulation of consumer sovereignty for use in normative economics which does not presuppose individuals preferences to be coherent the fundamental intuition that opportunity and responsibility have moral value is formalised as a responsibility criterion for assessing opportunities in an economic system a model of an exchange economy is presented in which rational arbitrageurs compete to make profits by trading with non rational consumers in equilibrium this economy satisfies the responsibility criterion one interpretation of this result is that in a competitive environment the overall effects of money pumps are benign even if individuals preferences are persistently incoherent

the cultural revolution and returns to schooling in china estimates based on twins abstract this paper investigates the returns to schooling in china for the cultural revolution cr cohort and the non cr cohort using a new set of chinese twins data applying the fixed effects model on twins data which helps to control for the genetic and family background effects this paper examines whether the cr cohort has smaller economic returns to schooling than the non cr cohort the empirical results in this paper indicate that the cultural revolution has not played a significantly adverse role in the returns to schooling

a theoretical and empirical analysis of family migration and household production u s 1980 1985 migration studies have usually focussed on individual persons or workers there has however been some interest in family migration while single individuals in the labor market only have to worry about their own income families where both the husband and wife may be in the labor market need to be concerned with the income of both spouses hence double income families may be less likely to move than single income families jacob mincer 26 develops and explores this hypothesis to be called the tied mover hypothesis the tied mover hypothesis has recently been extended to include not only considerations of the wife s earnings but also considerations of her household production as factors in the family s migration decisions 38 in this paper the research on family migration will be extended in three ways a formal model of household production and family migration will be developed and used to generate testable hypotheses about family migration variables which otherwise would not have a clear economic interpretation are incorporated into the model the model will then be estimated and some policy implications will be discussed one policy implication concerns the efficiency of the labor market labor market efficiency needs to be judged not only in terms of the efficiency of the job search of single individuals but also in terms of the efficiency of the joint job search of double income families this paper is organized into five sections first a comparative static household production model of locational choice is developed 2 next this model of locational choice is used to develop a theoretical model of family migration third the data and empirical model are discussed fourth the empirical results are reported and interpreted in terms of three different types of migration estimates of the impact of selected variables on the distance of the move are also considered the final section summarizes the general findings and offers some policy implications

experimental economics hard science or wasteful tinkering i take it that in raising the question what have we learned from experimental economics under the broader umbrella of controversy the point is not to solicit a catalogue of experimental findings but rather to signal the more pointed question are we learning anything at all or at least much that is very useful form experimentation in economics as a practising experimentalist i am convinced that experiments do have the potential to make a significant contribution to knowledge in economics this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

preference reversals without the independence axiom the preference reversal phenomenon was believed to be inconsistent with the transitivity axiom of decision theory however recent theoretical papers have demonstrated that the preference reversals that were observed in earlier experiments could be explained by subject violations of the independence axiom or the compound lottery axiom therefore those preference reversals are not known to be inconsistent with generalization of expected utility theory that replace the independence axiom the present paper reports the results of experiments in which a substantial proportion of subject responses violate the asymmetry axiom these results are inconsistent with expected utility theory and its generalizations copyright 1989 by american economic association

market simulation and the provision of public goods a non paternalistic response to anomalies in environmental evaluation most normative economics assumes that individuals have coherent preferences this paper responds to growing evidence of failures of this assumption particularly in the context of stated preference methods widely used in environmental policy analysis it proposes a non paternalistic concept of consumer sovereignty that does not assume preference coherence is satisfied by competitive markets and can be applied to the provision of public goods a key implication is that decisions should reflect valuations revealed at the point of consumption such valuations which can be inferred from hedonic prices may be less susceptible to willingness to accept wta willingness to pay wtp disparities than those elicited by stated preference methods

on the interpretation of the nash bargaining solution and its extension to non expected utility preferences the paper reexamines the foundations of the axiomatic nash bargaining theory more specifically it questions the interpretation of the nash bargaining solution and extends it to a family of non expected utility preferences a bargaining problem is presented as x d 2 where x is a set of feasible agreements described in physical terms d is the disagreement event and 1 and 2 are preferences defined on the space of lotteries in which the prizes are the elements in x and d the ordinal nash bargaining solution is defined as an agreement y satisfying for all p e 0 1 and for all x e x if px 1 y then py 2 x and if px 2 y then py x where px is the lottery which gives x with probability p and d with probability 1 p revisions of the pareto symmetry and iia axioms characterize the ordinal nash bargaining solution in the expected utility case this definition is equivalent to that of the nash bargaining solution however this definition is to be preferred since it allows a statement of the nash bargaining solution in everyday language and makes possible its natural extension to a wider set of preferences it also reveals the logic behind some of the more interesting results of the nash bargaining solution such as the comparative statics of risk aversion and the connection between the nash bargaining solution and strategic models

estimates of the economic returns to schooling from a new sample of twins this paper uses a new survey to contrast the wages of genetically identical twins with different schooling levels multiple measurements of schooling levels were also collected to assess the effect of reporting error on the estimated economic returns to schooling the data indicate that omitted ability variables do not bias the estimated return to schooling upward but that measurement error does bias it downward adjustment for measurement error indicates that an additional year of schooling increases wages by 12 to 16 percent a higher estimate of the economic returns to schooling than has been previously found copyright 1994 by american economic association

a calibrated auction conjoint valuation method valuing pork and eggs produced under differing animal welfare conditions this paper develops a valuation method which generates consistent and systematic estimates of people s preferences for complex multi attribute goods by inextricably linking auction bids with conjoint ratings the advantage of the valuation approach is that it permits the estimation of people s values for many potential goods allows one to decompose people s values for a good into its sub components and permits the study of preference heterogeneity without distributional assumptions we apply the method to an important and increasingly controversial topic animal welfare the method is used to determine people s preferences for eggs and pork produced from different production systems data from experiments conducted in three diverse u s locations chicago il dallas tx and wilmington nc indicates that people are on average willing to pay 0 95 more for a dozen eggs raised in an aviary pasture system vs a cage system and are willing to pay 2 02 more for two pounds of pork chops raised in a pasture system as opposed to a crate system

are free agents perspicacious peregrinators the perspicacious peregrinator model of solomon w polachek and francis w horvath hypothesizes that individuals decide to migrate based on the size of potential gains this model is tested using themigration decisions of major league baseball players between 1977 and1979 potential gains are measure d as the differ ence between earnings with and without migration a distinction is made between players eligible for free agency and those ineligible so as to a ccount for differences in the level of competition for players services in diff erent segments of this market migration is found tobe related to the expected gain from earnings for players eligible for free agency but not for those ineli gible copyright 1987 by mit press

does compulsory school attendance affect schooling and earnings we establish that season of birth is related to educational attainment because of school start age policy and compulsory school attendance laws individuals born in the beginning of the year start school at an older age and can therefore drop out after completing less schooling than individuals born near the end of the year roughly 25 percent of potential dropouts remain in school because of compulsory schooling laws we estimate the impact of compulsory schooling on earnings by using quarter of birth as an instrument for education the instrumental variables estimate of the return to education is close to the ordinary least squares estimate suggesting that there is little bias in conventional estimates every developed country in the world has a compulsory schooling requirement yet little is known about the effect these laws have on educational attainment and earnings 1 this paper exploits an unusual natural experiment to estimate the impact of compulsory schooling laws in the united states the experiment stems from the fact that children born in different months of the year start school at different ages while compulsory schooling laws generally require students to remain in school until their sixteenth or seventeenth birthday in effect the interaction of school entry requirements and compulsory schooling laws compel students born

income schooling and ability evidence from a new sample of identical twins we develop a model of optimal schooling investments and estimate it using new data on approximately 700 identical twins we estimate an average return to schooling of 9 percent for identical twins but estimated returns appear to be slightly higher for less able individuals simple cross section estimates are marginally upward biased these empirical results imply that abler individuals attain more schooling because they face lower marginal costs of schooling not because of higher marginal benefits

a theory of anticipated utility abstract a new theory of cardinal utility with an associated set of axioms is presented it is a generalization of the von neumann morgenstern expected utility theory which permits the analysis of phenomena associated with the distortion of subjective probability

coping with preference anomalies in cost benefit analysis a market simulation approach this paper proposes a methodological strategy for cost benefit analysis cba which does not require the assumption that individuals preferences satisfy standard coherence conditions and so renders cba immune to the problems generated by preference anomalies the proposal treats cba as an exercise in market simulation based on the measurement of surplus anomalies occur when surplus measurements vary according to the hypothetical payment mechanism used in such cases the mechanism that is the closest market analogue should be used this approach is used to resolve problems associated with some familiar anomalies including inconsistencies between citizen and consumer valuations and endowment effects

observing violations of transitivity by experimental methods the preference reversal phenomenon is usually interpreted as evidence of nontransitivity of preference but has also been explained as the result of the difference between individuals responses to choice and valuation problems the devices used by experimenters to elicit valuations and the random lottery selection incentive system this paper reports an experiment designed so that none of these factors could generate systematic nontransitivities yet systematic violations of transitivity were still found the pattern of violation was analogous with that found in previous preference reversal experiments and is consistent with regret theory copyright 1991 by the econometric society

analysing wage differentials when workers maximize the return to human capital investment abstractthe analysis of the determinants of differences in wages across workers has traditionally relied on the estimation of average earnings functions in this article we propose a new theoretical model where it is the workers who decide the amount they wish to invest in human capital taking into account the costs of acquiring those skills for the purpose of maximizing earnings in this model both human capital and marginal productivity are likely to be influenced by the individual s unobserved characteristics such as ability or motivation potentially giving rise to endogeneity problems in this context the empirical implementation of our theoretical model allows us under certain assumptions to obtain consistent estimates even under the assumption of endogeneity we present an empirical application to the education sector using data from the spanish structure of earnings survey 2010 our results show that females and workers in the private education sector face more difficulties in achieving t

returns to education evidence from u k twins we use a new sample of uk female identical twins to estimate private economic returns to education we report findings in three areas first we use identical twins to control for family effects and genetic ability bias and the education reported by the other twin to control for schooling measurement error our estimates suggest a return to schooling for uk females of about 7 7 second we investigate within twin pair ability differences by examining within twin pair and between family correlations of education with observable correlates of ability including birthweight ability tests and reading scores our findings suggest lower ability bias in within twin pair regressions than pooled regressions third using data on twins smoking we show smoking reflects family background and using it as an instrument exacerbates ability bias this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

viewpoint on the generalizability of lab behaviour to the field abstract we can think of no question more fundamental to experimental economics than understanding whether and under what circumstances laboratory results generalize to naturally occurring environments in this paper we extend levitt and list 2006 to the class of games in which financial payoffs and doing the right thing are not necessarily in conflict we argue that behaviour is crucially linked to not only the preferences of people but also the properties of the situation by doing so we are able to provide a road map of the psychological and economic properties of people and situations that might interfere with generalizability of laboratory result from a broad class of games

risk aversion in the theory of expected utility with rank dependent probabilities expected utility with rank dependent probability theory is a model of decision making under risk where the preference relations on the set of probability distributions is represented by the mathematical expectation of a utility function with respect to a transformation of the probability distributions on the set of outcomes this paper defines based on g teaux differentiability measures of risk aversion for such preferences which characterize the relation more risk averse and applies these measures to the analysis of unconditional and conditional portfolio choice problems

the invention of the independence condition for preferences this paper discusses the history and interrelations of three central ideas in preference theory the independence condition in decision under risk the sure thing principle in decision under uncertainty and conjoint independence for multiattribute decisions and consumer theory independence was recognized as an important component of decision under risk in the late 1940s by jacob marschak john nash herman rubin and norman dalkey and first appeared in publication in marschak marschak j 1950 rational behavior uncertain prospects and measurable utility econometrica18 111 141 and nash nash j f 1950 the bargaining problem econometrica18 155 162 the sure thing principle can be credited to savage savage l j 1953 une axiomatisation du comportement raisonnable face i l incertitude colloq internal centre national rech sci 40 econometrie 29 40 savage l j 1954 the foundations of statistics wiley new york 2nd edn dover new york 1972 conjoint independence for consumer theory was introduced by sono sono m 1943 the effect of price changes on the demand and supply of separable goods in japanese kokumin keisai zasshi74 1 51 and leontief leontief w w 1947a a note on the interrelation of subsets of independent variables of a continuous function with continuous first derivatives bull amer math soc 53 343 350 leontief w w 1947b introduction to a theory of the internal structure of functional relationships econometrica51 361 373 a form of it can also be recognized in samuelson samuelson p a 1947 foundations of economic analysis harvard university press cambridge ma presented earlier in samuelson samuelson p a 1940 foundations of analytical economics the observational significance of economic theory ph d dissertation harvard university boston ma independence and the sure thing principle are equivalent for decision under risk but in a less elementary way than has sometimes been thought the sure thing principle for decision under uncertainty and conjoint independence are identical in a mathematical sense the mathematics underlying our three preference conditions has an older history the independence condition for decision under risk can be recognized in the characterization of associative means and conjoint independence for multiattribute decisions in solutions to the generalized associativity functional equation

testing alternative explanations of cyclical choices in two previously reported experiments loomes starmer and sugden have found that choices are systematically non transitive following a pattern of cycling asymmetry predicted by regret theory however there are other potential explanations for these observations this paper reports four experiments designed to discriminate between alternative explanations there are three main findings first when the original experiments are replicated the same cycling asymmetry is found second this pattern is not the result of event splitting effects third both the frequency and the asymmetry of cycles are greater when choice problems are presented in act event matrices than when the options are described separately

the craft of labormetrics using a wide array of examples from the literature and from original estimates the author examines the pitfalls that make good empirical research in labor economics at least as much craft as statistical technique among the subjects discussed are the appropriateness and cleanliness of data problems of extreme observations the validity of attempts to produce exogeneity using instrumental variables natural experiments and structural models and the treatment of selectivity and unobservable individual effects the author stresses the importance of testing empirical results to ensure that they make sense and of presenting them clearly and economically

labor force migration and allocative efficiency in the united states the roles of information and psychic costs this paper examines the relative importance of information psychic and other costs of relocation as mitigating factors off sets to spatial earnings differentials within the migration decision the method employed for this examination is based upon 1 observation of relationships between the geographic allocation and personal characteristics of labor force migrants and 2 inferences drawn from these observations about the relative importance of various relocation cost components empirical analyses of the migration decision based upon this indirect method provide important insights on both the determinants and allocative efficiency of interstate labor force migration in the united states excerpt

low probability rational spillovers abstract we find evidence of rationality spillovers in low probability high severity risks people adjust their valuation of high probability events and preferences as they reduce preference reversals we find insensitivity to scope for food safety illnesses with the lowest probabilities

are preferences for skewness fixed or fungible are individual preferences for skewness fixed or fungible using preference reversals as a case study we find evidence that preferences remained stable as reversals disappear due to arbitrage across both market like and non market contexts

preference reversal information processing effect or rational non transitive choice preference reversal is often explained as an information processing effect whereby individuals respond differently to valuation problems than to straight choices regret theory offers the alternative explanation that individuals act on consistent but nontransitive preferences regret theory in its most general form is shown to make specific predictions about nontransitive pairwise choices that correspond with the preferences reversal phenomenon some experiments designed to discriminate between these two explanations are reported the main finding is that as regret theory predicts the preference reversal phenomenon can be reproduced in situations in which subjects confront only choice problems copyright 1989 by royal economic society

choice under uncertainty problems solved and unsolved ffifteen years ago the theory of choice under uncertainty could be considered one of the success stories of economic analysis it rested on solid axiomatic foundations it had seen important breakthroughs in the analytics of risk risk aversion and their applications to economic issues and it stood ready to provide the theoretical underpinnings for the newly emerging information revolution in economics 1 today choice under uncertainty is a field in flux the standard theory is being challenged on several grounds from both within and outside economics the nature of these challenges and of our profession s responses to them is the topic of this paper

what do twins studies reveal about the economic returns to education a comparison of australian and us findings conventional estimates of rates of return to education are constrained because they are unable to isolate the returns to schooling from the contribution of individual ability and the influence of family background potentially studies using a sample of twins may overcome these problems monozygotic twins are genetically identical and if they have been reared together share the same family background differences in income between identical twins can therefore be associated with differences in the amount of education they have undertaken in order to estimate the independent influence of education comparisons of such estimates with estimates made from a sample of dizygotic twins who are genetically similar but not identical and who are also reared together may permit evaluation of the biases associated with ability and family background in conventional estimates of the return to education in an important paper jere behrman et al 1977 analyzed data from a sample of male world war ii veteran twins and found that of the overall rate of return to schooling of 8 percent 2 7 percentage points could be attributed to schooling per se 3 2 percentage points could be attributed to genetic factors and 2 1 percentage points could be attributed to shared family environment in a recent paper however orley ashenfelter and alan krueger 1994 have estimated the economic returns to education using data on a new sample of twins which permitted them to adjust their estimate for omitted ability variables and measurement error on this basis they find that family and genetic effects make virtually no contribution to the returns to schooling measurement error however biases the estimated return to schooling downward the findings of ashenfelter and krueger 1994 are very different from previous work in this field and there is now some confusion as to what analysis of twins data really reveals about the economic returns to schooling ashenfelter and krueger s results are based on analysis of data for a sample of 298 individuals 149 pairs of identical twins who attended a twins festival in 1991 they remark at the end of their paper only additional data collection is likely to lead to better estimates of the returns to schooling p 1171

decision making under environmental uncertainty abstract the paper s main concern is with different decision making models for environmental issues and with the hypotheses of rationality underlying such models the hypothesis supported here is that most environmental problems are in a context of uncertainty of irreversibility and of complexity we shall explain why stressing the role of these elements implies a reversal of the traditional attitude towards decision making this presupposes a paradigm of economic rationality much broader that that of orthodox economics called procedural rationality our paper is in two parts the first part concerns the limits of the stochastic environmental approaches based on the bayesian decision theory and on a substantive rationality hypothesis the second part concerns the decision making analyses based upon a procedural rationality as well as their ability to take account of the interactions between uncertainty irreversibility and complexity

factor endowments heterogeneous labor and north south migration the relationship between the relative factor endowments of heterogeneous labor in the north and south of the united states and interregional labor migration is examined the purpose of the present paper is to make explicit a sufficient set of conditions that will support a factor endowment based migration model and to evaluate the advantages and weaknesses of that model the models predictions are tested using data from the 1970 census excerpt

the market for sweepstakes this paper studies the market for monopolistically supplied sweepstakes we derive equilibrium demands for fixed prize and variable prize sweepstakes and determine the profit maximizing prize level and pay out ratio respectively it can be profitable to offer each type of sweepstake when there is a large enough number of weighted utility consumers who have constant absolute risk attitudes are strictly averse to small as well as symmetric risks and display longshot preference behaviour moreover for the variable prize sweepstake the supplier will generally find it profitable to combine sweepstakes targeting two smaller populations and offer a single sweepstake to the combined population this implication is corroborated by the recent spate of mergers of smaller state lotteries into larger ones

temporal risk and the nature of induced preferences abstract it has been known since the work of h markowitz portfolio selection efficient diversification of investments yale univ press 1959 and j mossin amer econ rev 59 1969 172 174 that even an individual whose underlying preferences satisfy the von neumann morgenstern axioms will not choose over delayed i e temporal risky prospects in a manner which can be modelled as expected utility maximizing since most economically important instances of risk taking insurance real investment agriculture career training involve delayed as opposed to immediately resolved risk the standard use of expected utility theory to model such decisions must be questioned in this paper the technique of generalized expected utility analysis m j machina econometrica 50 1982 277 323 and the theory of support functions r t rockafellar convex analysis princeton univ press 1970 are applied to exactly model and hence determine the nature of preferences over temporal risky prospects

preference reversals the impact of truth revealing monetary incentives researchers vigorously debate the impact of incentives in preference reversal experiments do incentives alter behavior and generate economically consistent choices lichtenstein and slovic 1971 document inconsistencies reversals in revealed preference in gamble pairs across paired choice and individual pricing tasks the observed pattern is inconsistent with stable underlying preferences expressed with simple errors lichtenstein and slovic 1973 and grether and plott 1979 introduce incentives but aggregate reversal rates change little these results fostered numerous replications and assertions that models of non stable preferences are required to explain reversals contrary to this research we find that incentives can generate more economically consistent behavior our reevaluation of existing experimental data shows that incentives have a clear impact by better aligning aggregate choices and prices the effect is sufficiently large that with truth revealing incentives a stable preferences with error model not only explains behavior but fits the data as well as any model possibly could

are individuals bayesian decision makers there has been increasing interest in whether normative models of individual choice under uncertainty accord with actual behavior these concerns have been much greater than in other economic contexts because of the particularly severe demands such decisions place on the rationality of the decision maker the limitations of these decisions have widespread consequences as they provide the rationale for many governmental efforts to regulate the risks people face here i explore the issues raised by a bayesian decision framework focusing particularly on my analyses of worker and consumer behavior

education employment and earnings of secondary school and university leavers in tanzania evidence from a tracer study this study uses a tracer survey of secondary school completers in tanzania to analyse the impact of educational qualifications on labour market earnings we show that the rates of return to the highest educational qualifications for wage employees are not negligible and at the margin provide an investment incentive however we find little evidence of human capital effects in the earnings determination process for the self employment sector introducing controls for father s educational background and a set of school fixed effects designed to proxy for school quality and potential labour market network effects reduces the estimated rates of return to educational qualifications a comparison of our results with the available evidence from other countries in the region suggest that despite an extremely small secondary and university education system the private rates of return to education in the tanzanian wage employment sector are comparatively low

estimates of the returns to schooling from sibling data fathers sons and brothers data on brothers and on fathers and sons from the national longitudinal survey are used to consider the impact of omitted variables and measurement errors on the economic returns to schooling the analysis suggests that the upward bias in estimated returns due to omitted variables is likely offset by an equal downward bias resulting from measurement errors in reported schooling controlling for both of these potential sources of bias yields results comparable to conventional regression estimates of the economic return to schooling

a new model for decisions under uncertainty abstract a representation for preferences between uncertain acts that is not unduly more complex than the ramsey savage model can simultaneously accomodate allais s paradox ellsberg s paradox preference reversals and cyclic preferences

collective versus random fining an experimental study on controlling ambient pollution this paper presents an experimental study oftwo different pollution compliance games collective vis a vis random fining as ameans to regulate non pointpollution using samples from both costa ricancoffee mill managers and costa rican students we find that the two games perform equivalentlybut although they lead to efficient outcomesthrough nash play in the majority of cases theobserved frequency of nash play is lower thantheoretically predicted moreover we rejectthe hypothesis that managers and studentsbehave equally off the equilibrium managerstend to over abate whereas students tend tounder abate this result suggests theimportance of considering subject pooldifferences in the evaluation of environmentalpolicies by means of experiments particularlyif those policies involve certain forms ofmanagement decisions

willingness to pay and compensation demanded experimental evidence of an unexpected disparity in measures of value aside from possible income effects measures of the maximum amounts people will pay to avoid a loss and the minimum compensation necessary for them to accept it are generally assumed to be equivalent unexpectedly wide variations between these sums however have been noted in survey responses to hypothetical options this paper reports the results of a series of experiments that confronted people with actual money payments and cash compensations the results indicate that the compensation measure of value seems to exceed significantly the willingness to pay measure which would appear to call into some question various rules of entitlement damage assessments and interpretations of indifference curves

pre play learning and the preference reversal phenomenon elicited preference rankings for two lotteries are typically inconsistent across choice and pricing tasks we test whether pre play learning makes preference rankings consistent pre play learning denotes ex ante lottery learning where subjects observe playing lotteries before making decisions we find that pre play learning makes the average selling prices for the p bet of subjects who choose the p bet higher than their average selling prices for the bet however pre play learning is not strong enough to equalize the rates of standard and non standard reversals although pre play learning reduces the rate of standard reversals

life on the frontier migrant information earnings and past mobility this paper examines the extent to which information obtained from past geographic mobility affects both post move job search and earnings in subsequent migration in the united states the study considers this linkage between past and present mobility by estimating earnings frontiers for various categories of interstate migrants partitioned by prior mobility history the results demonstrate that migrant groups exhibiting high relative levels of human capital stock do not necessarily possess superior pre move labor market information it is also demonstrated that the incentive to acquire this pre move information is tied to psychic cost and variation in this cost among migrant types excerpt

home economic conditions and the decision to migrate new evidence for the u s labor force labor force response to differential economic conditions across space has received considerable attention within the economic literature on labor mobility and migration based upon research on this topic described within survey articles by greenwood 6 ritchey 20 and shaw 23 a consensus has developed namely that the level and propensity of labor force out migration from an area are unaffected by economic conditions within that area on the other hand demographic characteristics of the resident population and economic conditions outside the area are commonly believed to have significant influence on both the magnitude and direction of this outflow this apparent economic paradox was supported by early work of perloff et al 19 lowry 14 and lansing and mueller 10 although a significant exception appeared in a later study by miller 17 recent econometric studies have in general reconfirmed this paradox for instance graves 5 234 found results for origin economic conditions that run counter to the usual expectations levy and wadycki 12 present origin economic variables that are either insignificant or of wrong sign finally in one of the most recent and comprehensive studies of place to place migration fields 3 27 concludes that in