buyer experimentation and introductory pricing we study the pricing decisions of a monopolist seller in a two period model in which buyers and the seller are all uncertain about a good s quality we assume that buyers not only learn from experience but also may experiment that is increase the amount of information by consuming more we define an introductory price to be a first period equilibrium price lower than that which maximizes period 1 profit the motivation for introductory pricing is that under certain conditions the seller prefers its buyers to be better informed about quality a lower initial price increases consumption and hence information we consider two versions of the model identical buyers with a public signal of quality heterogeneous buyers who each receive a private quality signal 2001 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

optimal dynamic pricing of inventories with stochastic demand over finite horizons in many industries managers face the problem of selling a given stock of items by a deadline we investigate the problem of dynamically pricing such inventories when demand is price sensitive and stochastic and the firm s objective is to maximize expected revenues examples that fit this framework include retailers selling fashion and seasonal goods and the travel and leisure industry which markets space such as seats on airline flights cabins on vacation cruises and rooms in hotels that become worthless if not sold by a specific time we formulate this problem using intensity control and obtain structural monotonicity results for the optimal intensity resp price as a function of the stock level and the length of the horizon for a particular exponential family of demand functions we find the optimal pricing policy in closed form for general demand functions we find an upper bound on the expected revenue based on analyzing the deterministic version of the problem and use this bound to prove that simple fixed price policies are asymptotically optimal as the volume of expected sales tends to infinity finally we extend our results to the case where demand is compound poisson only a finite number of prices is allowed the demand rate is time varying holding costs are incurred and cash flows are discounted the initial stock is a decision variable and reordering overbooking and random cancellations are allowed

nonlinear pricing to produce information we investigate the firm s dynamic nonlinear pricing problem when facing consumers whose tastes vary according to a scalar index we relax the standard assumption that the firm knows the distribution of this index in general the firm should determine its marginal price schedule as if it were myopic and produce information by lowering the price schedule bunching consumers at positive purchase levels should be avoided as a special case we also consider a market characterized by homogeneous consumers with a static but unknown demand curve we show that when there are repeat purchases the forward looking firm should tend towards penetration pricing otherwise its strategy should tend towards skimming we extend our insights to more general settings and discuss implications for pricing product lines

retail pricing and clearance sales sellers of new products are faced with having to guess demand conditions to set price appropriately but sellers are able to adjustprice over time and to learn from past mistakes additionally it is not necessary that all goods be sold with certainty it is sometimes better to set a high price and to risk no sale this process is modeledto explain retail pricing behavior and the time distribution of transactions prices start high and fall as a function of time on theshelf the initial price and rate of decline can be predicted and depends on thinness of the market the proportion of customers who are window shoppers and other observable characteristics copyright 1986 by american economic association

price discrimination through offers to match price in this paper a firm discriminates between two classes of customer who have a different cost of information by coupling a list price with an offer to match the pr ice of any other shop if the list price elsewhere is lower the firm will be successful in discrimination the list price of each firm is increasing in the number of sellers and the total sales are decreasi ng in the number of sellers furthermore if sellers coordinate they discriminate more efficaciously and increase their profits by increa sing their total sales copyright 1987 by the university of chicago

revenue management with forward looking buyers a seller wishes to sell multiple goods by a deadline for example the end of a season potential buyers enter over time and can strategically time their purchases each period the profit maximizing mechanism awards units to the buyers with the highest valuations exceeding a sequence of cutoffs we show that these cutoffs are deterministic depending only on the inventory and time remaining in the continuous time limit the optimal mechanism can be implemented by posting anonymous prices when incoming demand decreases over time the optimal cutoffs satisfy a one period look ahead property and prices are defined by an intuitive differential equation

rationally inattentive seller sales and discrete pricing prices tend to remain constant for a period of time and then jump in the literature this rigidity is usually interpreted to reflect a cost of adjusting prices this article shows that price rigidity can alternatively reflect optimal price setting when there are no adjustment costs namely if the seller is rationally inattentive the model generates non trivial pricing patterns that are consistent with the data and that are hard to explain with the traditional adjustment cost model in particular prices are adjusted frequently but move back and forth between a few given values hazard functions are downward sloping and responses to persistent shocks are sluggish these results are obtained in a model that implements rational inattention without simplifying assumptions on the functional forms of the processed signals

the measurement of retail output and the retail revolution the computerization of retailing has made price dispersion a norm in the united states so that any given list price or transactions price is an increasingly imperfect measure of a product s resource cost as a consequence measuring the real output of retailers has become increasingly difficult food retailing is used as a case study to examine data problems in retail productivity measurement crude direct measures of grocery store output suggest that the cpi for food at home may have been overstated by 1 4 percentage points annually from 1978 to 1996 this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

loss aversion with a state dependent reference point this study investigates reference dependent choice with a stochastic state dependent reference point the optimal reference dependent solution equals the optimal consumption solution no loss aversion if the reference point is selected fully endogenously given that loss aversion is widespread we conclude that the reference point generally includes an important exogenously fixed component we develop a choice model in which adjustment costs can cause stickiness relative to an initial exogenous reference point using historical u s investment benchmark data we show that this model is consistent with diversification across bonds and stocks for a wide range of evaluation horizons despite the historically high risk premium of stocks compared to bonds this paper was accepted by peter wakker decision analysis

simulation study of the price differentiation effect in a stochastic deteriorating inventory with heterogeneous consumers freshness sensitivity a fixed price policy regardless of expiration date may result in unsold inventory and sales loss price reduction over time as the expiration date approaches motivates customers to purchase all items including the ones that are left with only a short interval until their expiration we conduct a discrete event simulation that captures the main characteristics of this phenomenon results show that a moderate differentiation of price increases profits by 6 a larger differentiation reduces profits profits are the highest for freshness oriented customers a fixed price policy is preferred in an environment of large variance and expected near term expirations

information aggregation failure in a model of social mobility abstract i study a model in which high and low income voters must decide between continuing with a status quo policy or switching to a different policy which is more redistributive under the status quo policy low income voters may get an opportunity to become high income earners such opportunities are expected to arise infrequently so in expectation these voters prefer the more redistributive policy nevertheless there is an equilibrium in which the vast majority of them cast their ballots in favor of re electing the less redistributive status quo although these voters are fully strategic and correctly assess their chances for upward mobility they vote exactly as if they are naive voters who over estimate their chances of becoming rich as the size of the electorate grows the status quo policy can be re elected with certainty and the election fails to fully aggregate information

dynamic pricing behavior in perishable goods markets evidence from secondary markets for major league baseball tickets sellers of perishable goods increasingly use dynamic pricing strategies as technology makes it easier to change prices and track inventory this paper tests how accurately theoretical models of dynamic pricing describe sellers behavior in secondary markets for event tickets a classic example of a perishable good it shows that the simplest dynamic pricing models describe very accurately both the pricing problem faced by sellers and how they behave explaining why sellers cut prices dramatically by 40 percent or more as an event approaches the estimates also imply that dynamic pricing is valuable raising the average seller s expected payoff by around 16 percent

can bait and switch benefit consumers we present a model that leads to an equilibrium with characteristics similar to the following stylized facts observed in retail markets a retailers advertise only selected brands b often low priced advertised brands are understocked c in store promotions are biased towards more expensive substitute brands together these practices constitute illegal bait and switch is this phenomenon necessarily harmful to consumers and to the economy we show that bait and switch can benefit consumers because utility is created through in store promotions and price competition is enhanced this suggests that the ftc investigate further its ban on bait and switch

the ignorant monopolist optimal learning with endogenous information economics lacks a good theory of the pricing and output decisions of a monopolist which does not know its demand we inevitably assume that the monopolist knows much more about demand conditions than is reasonable i present a model in which demand information is generated endogenously when information is endogenous the monopolist has an incentive to experiment with price and quantity i derive the direction of experimentation characterize an important value function arising from dynamic programming problems with learning and relate the results to blackwell s comparison of experiments copyright 1993 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

optimal best price policy abstract a best price policy bp is a promise by a seller to give her customer a refund if she reduces her price after the customer has already purchased the product we characterize the optimal bp policy as when the seller can control both the policy length when the promise expires and the refund scale what portion of the price difference is refunded we explain why the policy length is finite and varies across industries in a setting where consumers valuations decline over time we show that a finite length bp allows the seller to commit to not lowering her price too soon while at the same time letting her capture some of the benefits of intertemporal price discrimination however because the decline in consumers valuations is uncertain a bp does not allow the monopolist to achieve the profit she could earn with a full commitment

exclusion competition and regulation in the retail loan market abstract exclusion of borrowers from credit markets became a primary concern for regulators during the recovery from the recent recession the paper analyzes loan making institutions that set both interest rates and minimum credit requirements we propose analytical measures of the degree of borrower exclusion from receiving loans we analyze five market structures single lender regulated interest rate entry interest rate discrimination and highly competitive lenders interest rate regulation improves total welfare relative to a single lender market however entry of a second lender reduces exclusion and generates higher total welfare in the absence of fixed costs perfect and bertrand competition are optimal

analytical solutions to the dynamic pricing problem for time normalized revenue abstract in this work we consider dynamic pricing for the case of continuous replenishment an essential ingredient in such a formulation is the use of time normalized revenue or profit function in other words revenue or profit per unit time this provides the incentive to sell many items in the shortest time and of course at a high price moreover for most firms what matters most is how much revenue or profit is achieved in a certain time frame for example per year this changes the problem qualitatively and methodologically we develop a new dynamic pricing model for this formulation we derive an analytical solution to the pricing problem in the form of a simple to solve ordinary differential equation ode equation the trajectory of this ode gives the optimal pricing curve unlike many of the models existing in the literature that rely on computationally demanding dynamic programming type solutions our model is relatively simple to solve also we apply the derived equation to two commonly used price demand functions the exponential and the power functions and derive closed form pricing curves for these functions

robust price setting newsvendor model with interval market size and consumer willingness to pay we consider a price setting newsvendor problem with partial information the newsvendor does not know the price dependent probability distribution of demand but is able to estimate lower and upper limits of the market size and consumer willingness to pay the objective is to minimize the maximum loss in expected profit or minimax regret we derive closed form expressions for optimal quantity and price and identify managerial insights

dynamic competition with random demand and costless search a theory of price posting this paper studies a dynamic model of perfectly competitive price posting under demand uncertainty firms must produce output in advance after observing aggregate sales in prior periods firms post prices for their unsold output in each period the demand of a new batch of consumers is randomly activated existing customers who have not yet bought and then new customers arrive at the market in random order observe the posted prices and either purchase at the lowest available price or delay their purchase decision we construct a sequential equilibrium in which the output produced and its allocation across consumers is efficient thus consumers endogenously sort themselves efficiently with the highest valuations purchasing first transaction prices in each period rise continuously as firms become more optimistic about demand followed by a market correction by the last period prices are market clearing

purchasing pricing and quick response in the presence of strategic consumers we consider a retailer that sells a product with uncertain demand over a finite selling season the retailer sets an initial stocking quantity and at some predetermined point in the season optimally marks down remaining inventory we modify this classic setting by introducing three types of consumers myopic consumers who always purchase at the initial full price bargain hunting consumers who purchase only if the discounted price is sufficiently low and strategic consumers who strategically choose when to make their purchase a strategic consumer chooses between a purchase at the initial full price and a later purchase at an uncertain markdown price in equilibrium strategic consumers and the retailer make optimal decisions given their rational expectations regarding future prices availability of inventory and the behavior of other consumers we find that the retailer stocks less takes smaller price discounts and earns lower profit if strategic consumers are present than if there are no strategic consumers we find that a retailer should generally avoid committing to a price path over the season assuming such commitment is feasible committing to a markdown price or to not mark down at all is often too costly inventory may remain unsold even in the presence of strategic consumers the better approach is to be cautious with the initial quantity and then mark down optimally furthermore we discuss the value of quick response the ability to procure additional inventory after obtaining updated demand information albeit at a higher unit cost than the initial order we find that the value of quick response to a retailer is generally much greater in the presence of strategic consumers than without them on average 67 more valuable and as much as 558 more valuable in our sample in other words although it is well established in the literature that quick response provides value by allowing better matching of supply with demand it provides more value often substantially more value by allowing a retailer to control the negative consequences of strategic consumer behavior

an equilibrium search model of synchronized sales we demonstrate the existence of periodic nonstationary equilibria with self generating cycles in a simple model of random search our results provide a theory of synchronized sales based on product market search by heterogeneous consumers that is our model explains how it can be optimal for all sellers to follow a repeated pattern of posting a high price for several periods and then posting a low price for one period

salience and consumer choice we present a theory of context dependent choice in which a consumer s attention is drawn to salient attributes of goods such as quality or price an attribute is salient for a good when it stands out among the good s attributes relative to that attribute s average level in the choice set or more broadly the choice context consumers attach disproportionately high weight to salient attributes and their choices are tilted toward goods with higher quality price ratios the model accounts for a variety of disparate evidence including decoy effects and context dependent willingness to pay it also suggests a novel theory of misleading sales

sales and monetary policy this paper analyses the efiect of monetary policy in a model where sales occur in equilibrium some consumers are loyal to a particular brand of a good others are bargain hunters as a result producers flnd it optimal to sell their goods at a normal price through some retailers and at a sale price through others the margin of adjusting the amount sold on sale is potentially very important if producers can adjust the fraction sold on sale with sticky prices and wages money is approximately neutral if we ignore the reasons behind sales but that result changes dramatically when we consider that producers optimally choose to sell some of their goods on sale owing to strategic substitutabilities in the sales decision money has strong procyclical efiects

a theory of clearance sales clearance sales are widely used by firms as an intertemporal selling policy in particular in markets where firms face demand uncertainty and need to choose capacity in advance clearance sales consist in charging a high price initially but then lowering the price in the sales period high valuation consumers purchase the good at the high initial price so as to avoid rationing at the low price while low valuation consumers wait for the price to drop we develop a simple model of intertemporal monopoly pricing under demand uncertainty and show that clearance sales may be the optimal intertemporal selling policy

dynamic pricing when consumers are strategic analysis of posted and contingent pricing schemes abstract we study dynamic pricing policies for a monopolist selling perishable products over a finite time horizon to strategic buyers buyers are strategic in the sense that they anticipate the firm s price policies it is expensive and administratively difficult for most brick and mortar retailers to change prices placing limits on the number of price changes and the types of pricing policies they can adopt the simplest policy is to commit to a set of price changes a more complex alternative is to let the price depend on sales history we investigate two pricing schemes that we call posted and contingent pricing using the posted pricing scheme the firm announces a set of prices at the beginning of the horizon in the contingent pricing scheme price evolution depends upon demand realization our focus is on the posted pricing scheme because of its ease of implementation counter to intuition we find that neither a posted pricing scheme nor a contingent pricing scheme is dominant and the difference in expected revenues of these two schemes is small limiting the number of price changes will result in a decrease in expected revenues we show that a multi unit auction with a reservation price provides an upper bound for expected revenues for both pricing schemes numerical examples suggest that a posted pricing scheme with two or three price changes is enough to achieve revenues that are close to the upper bound dynamic pricing is only useful when strategic buyers perceive scarcity we study the impact of scarcity and derive the optimal stocking levels for large markets finally we investigate whether or not it is optimal for the seller to conceal inventory or sales information from buyers a firm benefits if it does not reveal the number of units it has available for sale at the beginning of the season or subsequently withholds information about the number of units sold

terrorism and attitudes towards minorities the effect of the theo van gogh murder on house prices in amsterdam abstract does fundamentalist islamic terrorism have an effect on the general attitudes towards muslim minorities we use the murder of theo van gogh as an event study to address this question specifically we use the hedonic market model and test for an effect on listed house prices in neighborhoods where more than 25 of the people belong to an ethnic minority from a muslim country type i relative to the other neighborhoods house prices in type i neighborhoods decreased in 10 months by about 3 with a widening gap over time our results are robust to several adjustments including using synthetic control groups finally we find evidence that segregation increased people belonging to the muslim minority were more likely to buy and less likely to sell a house in a type i neighborhood after the murder than before

dynamic pricing advance sales and aggregate demand learning in airlines this paper uses a unique u s airlines panel data set to empirically study the dynamic pricing of inventories with uncertain demand over a finite horizon i estimate a dynamic pricing equation and a dynamic demand equation that jointly characterize the adjustment process between prices and sales as the flight date nears i find that the price increases as the inventory decreases and decreases as there is less time to sell consistent with aggregate demand learning and price adjustment demand shocks have a positive and much larger effect on prices than the positive effect of anticipated sales

dealer price discrimination in new car purchases evidence from the consumer expenditure survey this paper documents the variation in dealer discounts for new cars using transactions price data from the consumer expenditure survey consumer specific characteristics fail to explain dealer discounts whereas model market specific and purchase transaction variables e g first time purchase trade in and financing through dealer do explain them the results contradict earlier findings of race and gender discrimination based on a controlled experiment this contradiction is reconciled by examining the higher moments of the empirical discount distribution while mean and median markups do not vary by race and gender minority purchases are characterized by higher dispersion this may rationalize the disparate treatment of minorities by dealers documented in the controlled experiment

pass through in retail and wholesale this paper studies how prices comove across products firms and locations to gauge the relative importance of retailer versus manufacturer level shocks in determining prices i make use of a large panel data set on prices for a cross section of retailers in the u s i analyze prices at the barcode or universal product code upc level for individual stores i find that only 16 of the variation in prices is common across stores selling an identical product 65 of the price variation is common to stores within a particular retail chain but not across retail chains while 17 is completely idiosyncratic to the store and product product categories with frequent temporary sales exhibit a disproportionate amount of completely idiosyncratic price variation my results suggest that most of the observed price variation arises from retail level rather than manufacturer level demand and supply shocks however the behavior of prices is difficult to relate to observed variation in costs and demand at the retail level this suggests that retail prices may vary largely as a consequence of dynamic pricing strategies on the part of retailers or manufacturers rather than static demand and supply shocks this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

dynamic pricing competition with strategic customers under vertical product differentiation we consider dynamic pricing competition between two firms offering vertically differentiated products to strategic customers who are intertemporal utility maximizers we show that price skimming arises as the unique pure strategy markov perfect equilibrium in the game under a simple condition our results highlight the asymmetric effect of strategic customer behavior on quality differentiated firms even though the profit of either firm decreases as customers become more strategic the low quality firm suffers substantially more than the high quality firm furthermore we show that unilateral commitment to static pricing by either firm generally improves profits of both firms interestingly both firms enjoy higher profit lifts when the high quality firm commits rather than when the low quality firm commits this paper was accepted by yossi aviv operations management

the cyclicality of new product introductions this study analyzes empirically the cyclical nature of the timing of new product introductions in u s manufacturing new product introductions vary more in nonseasonal frequencies than in seasonal frequencies however the seasons alone account for only a small part of their total variability with demand factors being much more important demand fluctuations account for 35 80 and 17 43 respectively of the seasonal and cyclical variability of new product introductions in various industries finally new product introductions respond more to fluctuations in aggregate demand than in market demand and in business cycles than in seasonal cycles

clearance pricing and inventory policies for retail chains clearance pricing and end of season inventory management are challenging and important problems in retailing sales rates depend upon price seasonal effects and the remaining assortment of items available to customers there is little time to react to observed sales and pricing errors result in either loss of potential revenue or excess inventory to be liquidated this paper develops optimal clearance prices and inventory management policies that take into account the impact of reduced assortment and seasonal changes on sales rates versions of these policies have been tested and implemented at three major retail chains and these applications are summarized and discussed

five facts about prices a reevaluation of menu cost models are price decreases 3 the frequency of price increases covaries strongly with inflation whereas the frequency of price decreases and the size of price increases and price decreases do not 4 the frequency of price change is highly seasonal it is highest in the first quarter and then declines 5 we find no evidence of upwardsloping hazard functions of price changes for individual products we show that the first second and third facts are consistent with a benchmark menu cost model whereas the fourth and fifth facts are not

prices are sticky after all abstract economists have interpreted the evidence that prices change every four months as implying that sticky prices cannot be important for monetary transmission theory implies that this interpretation is correct if most price changes are regular but not if a large fraction are temporary as in the data since regular prices are much stickier than temporary ones our models predict that the stickiness of the aggregate price level matches that in a standard calvo model or a standard menu cost model in which micro level prices change about once a year in this sense prices are sticky after all

should retailers hold a perishable product having different ages the case of a homogeneous market and multiplicative demand model this paper specializes in investigating the common practice of the coexistence of multiple competing perishables each with different age and price all of which are associated with the same product the fundamental postulate investigated by our model is the replacement of the policy of selling a single product age with a policy of selling multiple product ages coexistence of multiple product ages on the shelf is associated with shorter cycle lengths as well as with providing consumers with the option of choosing between a fresher product on average and a cheaper product on average we use a utility corresponding to the factors of price and time we axiomatically assume the coexistence of multiple product ages while posing several propositions which present certain difficulties in preferring this policy with the support of a multiplicative demand with respect to price and time and by assuming that consumers are homogeneous in their preferences we analyze a deterministic version of the problem and derive the optimal pricing policy given any cycle length and any duration for which both types coexist on the shelf we prove that the optimal policy is not to sell multiple product types at all by means of a numerical example we show that the operational mode of the coexistence of multiple product ages reduces the retailer s profit per unit time by at least 15 sensitivity analysis of some of the most influential parameters is introduced the superiority of the single product age operational mode over the competitor mode sharply decreases as the optimal cycle length is approached

durable goods monopoly with limited choice of commitment strategy when should the monopolist precommit consider a firm a monopolist offering a unique product to a fixed number of potential customers suppose that no consumer desires more than one unit of the good within a given period or across periods that is there is no value to repeat purchases in addition suppose that customers vary with respect to their initial reservation prices which decline over time a natural interpretation is that the monopolist is selling a good that is durable alternatively the firm is providing an entertainment or fashion good consumers may place a premium on obtaining the product quickly before it becomes less useful less stylish or less novel coase 7 conjectured that this firm s ability to extract surplus is limited because the firm has to compete with itself across time periods high valuation customers would be unwilling to pay a high initial price because they would anticipate that over time the firm will be reducing the price in order to sell to lower valuation customers subsequent literature formalizes this as a time inconsistency problem faced by a monopolist unable to make intertemporal commitments a separate strand of the literature proceeds from the polar assumption that the monopolist can precommit to any multiperiod pricing strategy comparison to coase s monopolist is simple higher profits are obtainable under precommitment because more surplus is extracted from high valuation customers an important proposition due to stokey 22 is that it will be optimal for the monopolist to precommit to a declining intertemporal price schedule if consumers with higher initial valuations have a higher rate of time preference 2 otherwise the optimal strategy is to hold price constant at the static monopoly level and to sell no more than the static monopoly quantity 3

optimal pricing with speculators and strategic consumers this paper studies a monopolist firm selling a fixed capacity the firm sets a price before demand uncertainty is resolved speculators may enter the market purely with the intention of resale which can be profitable if demand turns out to be high consumers may strategically choose when to purchase and they may also choose to purchase from the firm or from the speculators we characterize equilibrium prices and profits and analyze the long run capacity decisions of the firm there are three major findings first the presence of speculators increases the firm s expected profits even though the resale market competes with the firm second by facilitating resale the firm can mimic dynamic pricing outcomes and enjoy the associated benefits while charging a fixed price third speculative behavior may generate incentives for the seller to artificially restrict supply and thus may lead to lower capacity investments we also explore several model extensions that highlight the robustness of our results

coordinating clearance markdown sales of seasonal products in retail chains in this paper we propose a methodology to set prices of perishable items in the context of a retail chain with coordinated prices among its stores and compare its performance with actual practice in a real case study we formulate a stochastic dynamic programming problem and develop heuristic solutions that approximate optimal solutions satisfactorily to compare this methodology with current practices in the industry we conducted two sets of experiments using the expertise of a product manager of a large retail company in chile in the first case we contrast the performance of the proposed methodology with the revenues obtained during the 1995 autumn winter season in the second case we compare it with the performance of the experienced product manager in a simulation game setting in both cases our methodology provides significantly better results than those obtained by current practices

style goods pricing with demand learning for many industries e g apparel retailing managing demand through price adjustments is often the only tool left to companies once the replenishment decisions are made a significant amount of uncertainty about the magnitude and price sensitivity of demand can be resolved using the early sales information in this study a bayesian model is developed to summarize sales information and pricing history in an efficient way this model is incorporated into a periodic pricing model to optimize revenues for a given stock of items over a finite horizon a computational study is carried out in order to find out the circumstances under which learning is most beneficial the model is extended to allow for replenishments within the season in order to understand global sourcing decisions made by apparel retailers some of the findings are empirically validated using data from u s apparel industry

inventories and the automobile market this article studies the within model year pricing production and inventory management of new automobiles using new monthly data on u s transaction prices we document that for the typical vehicle prices fall over the model year at a 9 0 annual rate concurrently both sales and inventories are hump shaped to explain these time series we formulate an industry model for new automobiles in which inventory and pricing decisions are made simultaneously the model predicts that automakers build to stock inventory management policy substantially influences the time series of prices and sales accounting for four tenths of the price decline observed over the model year

time on the market and price change the case of sydney housing market this article is an empirical study of characteristics related to residential properties sold in sydney australia we use comprehensive data on the sydney housing market composed of 25 489 observations for properties sold in the sydney region in 2011 we consider the fact that both the seller of the property and the real estate agent have a common goal to sell the property at the highest possible price in the shortest amount of time the analysis is divided into two major parts first we estimate a two stage least square model to analyse which parameters affect time on the market for a property second we propose a probit model that estimates the parameters that affect a revision in list prices the results contribute to the existing literature on the australian housing market by extending understandings about the parameters that could affect the time on the market of properties and the revision of their list prices

do higher prices for new goods reflect quality growth or inflation much of consumer price index cpi inflation for consumer durables reflects shifts to newer product models that display higher prices not price increases for a given set of goods i examine how these higher prices for new models should be divided between quality growth and price inflation based on a whether consumer purchases shift toward or away from the new models and b whether new model price increases generate higher relative prices that persist through the model cycle i conclude that two thirds of the price increases with new models should be treated as quality growth this implies that cpi inflation for durables has been overstated by almost 2 percentage points per year with quality growth understated by the same magnitude

loss leader pricing and rain check policy loss leader pricing and rain check policies are common in retail markets yet research on these topics is surprisingly scarce in this paper we study the effects of leader pricing and rain check policy on stores profits and market outcomes suppose stores can accurately predict demand might they still run out of stock we investigate whether such a result is plausible when stores can offer rain checks the paper also helps resolve an issue that has recently attracted much attention should the ftc repeal its rule prohibiting stock outs of advertised sale items

incorporating consumer price expectations in diffusion models in this paper the sensitivity of the optimal price path of a new durable product to the price expectations of consumers is examined consumers enter the market every period in a diffusion type framework during the initial periods more consumers enter the market due to word of mouth influence but in the latter periods saturation effects set in the entering set of cohorts form expectations about future prices and in a stable equilibrium these expectations are fulfilled it is shown that the price path is cyclical with the following properties at the beginning of the cycle the price is at its highest level it falls monotonically over time reaching a low price at the end of the cycle equal to the reservation price of the consumers willing to pay less the cycle lengths are not equal the sensitivity of the optimal price path to model parameters is explored through a numerical procedure

on the relationship between inventory costs and variety benefits in retailassortments consider a category of product variants distinguished by some attribute such as color or flavor a retailer must construct an assortment for the category i e select a subset variants to stock and determine purchase quantities for each offered variant we analyze this problem using a multinomial logit model to describe the consumer choice process and a newsboy model to represent the retailer s inventory cost we show that the optimal assortment has a simple structure and provide insights on how various factors affect the optimal level of assortment variety we also develop a formal definition of the level of fashion in a category using the theory of majorization and examine its implications for category profits

learning forgetting and sales sellers of almost any product or service rarely keep their prices constant through time and frequently offer price discounts or sales this paper investigates an explanation of sales as a way for uninformed consumers to be willing to experience the product and learn about its fit and where informed consumers may forget about or change their preferences we investigate the role of the rate of consumer forgetting on the timing between sales and of the rate of consumer learning and menu costs on the length of a sale the rate of consumer forgetting can be linked to the length of purchase cycle and the level of consumer involvement we show that the discount frequency and the discount depth are increasing in the rate of consumer forgetting and that the discount frequency is increasing in the learning rate the duration of a sale is increasing in the rate of consumer forgetting and the rate of consumer learning

consumer rationing and the posssibility of intertemporal price discrimination abstract intertemporal price discrimination is explained from consumer rationing if some consumers who have a low valuation for a good are served first at low prices high valuation consumers buy at a high price although they rationally foresee future price drops price discrimination then yields more profits to a monopolist than a uniform pricing strategy

pricing and manufacturing decisions when demand is a function of prices in multiple periods in most deterministic manufacturing decision models demand is either known or induced by pricing decisions in the period that the demand is experienced however in more realistic market scenarios consumers make purchase decisions with respect to price not only in the current period but also in past and future periods we model a joint manufacturing pricing decision problem accounting for that portion of demand realized in each period that is induced by the interaction of pricing decisions in the current period and in previous periods we formulate a mathematical programming model and develop solution techniques we identify structural properties of our models and develop closed form solutions and effective heuristics for various special cases of our models finally we conduct extensive computational experiments to quantify the effectiveness of our heuristics and to develop managerial insights

revenue management without commitment dynamic pricing and periodic flash sales a seller has a fixed number of goods to sell by a deadline at each time he posts a regular price and decides whether to hold a flash sale over time buyers privately enter the market and strategically time their purchases if a buyer does not purchase when she arrives she can pay an attention cost to recheck the regular price afterwards or she can wait for future flash sales where she may obtain a good at a discounted price in the unique markov perfect equilibrium the seller sporadically holds flash sales to lower the stock of goods a flash sale increases the willingness to pay of future buyers but decreases the willingness to pay of buyers who arrive early in the game when it is very likely that a buyer will obtain a good in a flash sale the seller holds a big initial flash sale for all but one unit of the good

fashion and sales abstract when there is unpredictable fashion in taste it will be optimal to limit the stock of each variety of a horizontally differentiated durable good if consumers are uncertain about one another s taste they will then accept higher first period prices for perfect matches in order to avoid finding only bad matches on sale thus there exists a mechanism which allows a monopolist to price discriminate inter temporally even when it has predictable clearance sales and consumers are infinitely patient there is no distortion in product selection when this equilibrium arises

research note overselling with opportunistic cancellations in many business sectors such as airlines hotels trucking and media advertising customers arrivals and willingness to pay are uncertain managers must decide whether to quote a price low enough to guarantee early sales or to quote a higher price and risk that some units remain unsold in allocating capacity they face a trade off between two types of potential losses 1 yield loss selling at a low price and losing a better price later and 2 spoilage loss waiting in vain to sell at a high price and losing the opportunity of an earlier low price offer yield loss means that consumers who value the product most do not get to use it and spoilage loss means that valuable products are wasted because no consumers get to use them sellers typically hedge against the risk of spoilage loss by selling some units early at low prices and against the risk of yield loss by blocking some units in hope of selling them later at a high price in this paper we show that the use of overselling with opportunistic cancellations can increase expected profits and improve allocation efficiency under this strategy the seller deliberately oversells capacity if high paying consumers show up even when capacity is already fully booked the seller then cancels the sale to some low paying customers while providing them with appropriate compensation we derive a new rule to optimally allocate capacity to consumers when overselling is used and show that overselling helps limit the potential yield and spoilage losses yield loss is reduced because the seller can capture more high paying customers by compensating low paying customers who give up their right to the product spoilage loss is reduced because the compensation decreases the price spread perceived by the seller and as a result the seller is less anxious to speculate and block units overselling with opportunistic cancellations assures that the product will be sold to consumers who value it most this means that everybody wins and resources are allocated more efficiently than in conventional selling

theoretical models of sales promotions contributions limitations and a future research agenda our objective in this paper is to review theoretical models of sales promotions we highlight the key contributions of these models discuss their limitations and outline an agenda for future research managerial questions examined in these models include some very fundamental issues such as why firms resort to the use of sales promotions in mature markets and why the use of sales promotions has increased dramatically during the last two decades also included in this review are models that address firm level strategic issues such as the allocation of dollars between advertising and sales promotions and the relative emphasis on trade promotions vis a vis consumer promotions we also review theoretical models that explain how consumers respond to price promotions and what type of sales promotion tools may be superior to others in a particular market the review concludes with a possible agenda for future research

a simulation analysis of alternative pricing strategies for dynamic environments the implicit assumption of the classical economic model of price determination is that the firm maximizes short run profits however one of the key implications of strategy research of the past decade is that short run profit maximization is not an appropriate criterion for many market situations instead market share has been proposed as the key to long term profitability see e g buzzell gale and sultan 1974 abell and hammond 1979 this proposition has had a strong impact on both marketing practice and research hopkins 1981 reports that 88 of industrial firms surveyed spell out market share goals in detail the emphasis on market share in practice has been reflected in the theoretical side also where numerous market share forecasting and maximizing models have been published long term profitability has also become a research interest in its own right more than a dozen papers have appeared in major journals since 1975 the impetus to this activity has been the recognition of the existence of intertemporal effects in the environment for example on the demand side a consumer s purchasing in a given time period may preclude purchasing in the future because of the durability of the good or personal inventory loading on the supply side added current production early in new product introduction may reduce the cost of future proresearchers of the strategic implications of the well known demand e g adoption and diffusion and supply e g experience effects dynamics have typically sought analytical solutions their success in this has been achieved partly by limiting the richness of the dynamics considered this paper describes a simulation modeling capability simstrat which trades off analytical solutions for richer more realistic representations of supply and demand we present the model and then the results of our initial investigations using simstrat when joined with new computer graphics capabilities the model is successful in identifying conditions conducive to skimand penetration pricing strategies

price competition under stockpiling and flexible consumption abstract conventional wisdom suggests that the main effect of price promotion is on brand switching i e secondary demand however some recent studies demonstrate that the primary demand expansion effect can be considerably larger than previously believed a significant driver of this primary demand effect is consumer stockpiling in response to price promotions indeed experimental studies have shown that additional inventory on hand can lead to an endogenous increase in consumption the authors develop a model of price competition between firms in response to the stockpiling and subsequent consumption dynamics of consumers in this setting the flexible consumption effect causes more intense price competition deeper promotions and an increase in the frequency of promotions the authors use two years of scanner panel data from eight product categories and 4313 stockkeeping units to test three implications of the theoretical model they find strong support for each

dynamic pricing in the presence of inventory considerations research overview current practices and future directions the benefits of dynamic pricing methods have long been known in industries such as airlines hotels and electric utilities where the capacity is fixed in the short term and perishable in recent years there has been an increasing adoption of dynamic pricing policies in retail and other industries where the sellers have the ability to store inventory three factors contributed to this phenomenon 1 the increased availability of demand data 2 the ease of changing prices due to new technologies and 3 the availability of decision support tools for analyzing demand data and for dynamic pricing this paper constitutes a review of the literature and current practices in dynamic pricing given its applicability in most markets and its increasing adoption in practice our focus is on dynamic intertemporal pricing in the presence of inventory considerations

storable good monopoly the role of commitment we study dynamic monopoly pricing of storable goods in an environment where demand changes over time the literature on durables has focused on incentives to delay purchases our analysis focuses on a different intertemporal demand incentive for consumers the key force on the consumer side is advance purchases or stockpiling this stockpiling motive can be present in the case of standard durables as well in environments unmodeled in the prior literature we show that if the monopolist cannot commit then prices are higher in all periods and social welfare is lower than in the case in which the monopolist can commit this is in contrast with the durable goods analysis in the literature on the coase conjecture

dynamic pricing and ordering decisions by a monopolist this paper considers the relationship between pricing and ordering decisions for a monopolistic retailer facing a known demand function where over the inventory cycle the product may exhibit i physical decay or deterioration of inventory called wastage and ii decrease in market value called value drop associated with each unit of inventory on hand the retailer is allowed to continuously vary the selling price of the product over the cycle we introduce a notion of instantaneous margin and use it to derive profit maximizing conditions for the retailer the model explains the markdown of retail goods subject to decay it also provides guidance in determining when price changes during the cycle are worthwhile due to product aging how often such changes should be made and how such changes affect ordering intervals and quantities