how important is the capacity of local governments for improvements in welfare evidence from decentralised uganda abstract decentralisation is often claimed to be effective for improvements in welfare and hence the reduction of poverty but empirical evidence is scarce this paper seeks to gain further insights into the relationship between decentralisation and welfare by investigating the role of local governments capacity for household consumption and school enrolment in uganda using household survey data it finds suggestive evidence that both household consumption and school enrolment are positively related with the level of capacity of district governments

what is a relationship worth repeated exchange and the development and deployment of relational capital organization scholars have highlighted the value of relationships in fostering effective exchange suggesting that repeated exchange creates a relational asset with latent value derived from elevated social connections norms and simple expectations of exchange continuity yet the empirical evidence supporting such claims remains largely indirect as a consequence few studies have been able to directly examine how contextual factors shape the accumulation of this relational asset or define its value in application we directly measure the value of relationships between suppliers and a large buyer using the buyer s choices in internet enabled procurement auctions to estimate the degree to which stronger relationship histories with suppliers increase willingness to pay for high volume commodity like parts our setting also allows us to examine how this willingness to pay for relationships is shaped by the social context in which they develop and by the exchange context in which they are subsequently depl

preferential trading agreements and capital flows abstract a three country trade model is used to determine the impact of a preferential trading agreement between two countries on world prices and the international allocation of capital assuming the agreeing countries have characteristics typically associated with developing countries we derive a simple condition that predicts whether a country experiences an inflow or outflow of capital with the agreement while at least one country experiences a capital inflow the other may experience an outflow welfare implications are addressed

an ideal point probabilistic choice model for heterogeneous preferences this paper presents a new ideal point probabilistic choice model unlike the model suggested by cooper and nakanishi cooper l g m nakanishi 1983 two logit models for external analysis of preferences psychometrika48 4 607 619 which attempts to capture choices via a single ideal point the proposed model though based on aggregate data allows for heterogeneity in preferences by estimating a distribution of ideal points the model accounts for substitutability among choice alternatives and alleviates one of the major sources for the violation of the independence from irrelevant alternatives property it is demonstrated that the final form of the model is a multinomial probit with a covariance matrix that depends on the relative position of the choice alternatives an empirical application is provided and the resulting parameters are compared to the distributions of ideal points and attribute weights obtained via linmap at the individual level and via both the logit and probit versions of the model proposed by cooper and nakanishi at the aggregate level

a model of how discounting high priced brands affects the sales of low priced brands drawing on a consumer preference distribution structure postulated in analytical modeling research the author develops a separate effects model that separates the total discount effect of a compet

a new approach to understanding labour supply of disabled people abstractthe main interest of this article is to propose an individual utility maximization model to explain the low participation of disabled people we account for heterogeneity of preferences and

protection and the harmful effects of endogenous capital flows abstract assume a country has in place a binding tariff and is a price taker on world markets in which capital is internationally mobile and unimpeded regardless of trade patterns possible specificity of capital or factor intensities an increase in the tariff harms the country if capital is frozen and harms the country even more when capital mobility brings rates of return into line among countries

concubinage or marriage informal and formal cooperations for innovation based on a sample of german inno innovating firms that contains information on formal and informal innovation cooperation between customers and suppliers we state that firms perceive informal cooperation as being more important than formal cooperation modes we then investigate the determinants of firms decisions to engage into the respective cooperation modes in line with previous empirical work we do not find much empirical evidence for the relevance of incoming spillovers in addition our results suggest that this finding holds as well for informal cooperations a firms ability to protect its proprietary innovations however seems to be a key determinant of formal as well as informal cooperations furthermore absorptive capacity and the organizational structure of in house r d play an important role another relevant driver of vertical cooperations are the innovation dynamics at the he industry level firms who operate an r d department and firms who are involved in costly r d projects tend to cooperate formally rather than informally

a comparison of regret based and utility based discrete choice modelling an empirical illustration with hospital bed choice there is some concern that the unobserved preference heterogeneity in random utility maximization theory based discrete choice experiment modelling is an important source of error variability the

testing economic theories of voter behaviour using micro data three hypotheses often encountered in economic analyses of voter behaviour are tested using an extensive data set derived from six consecutive national election studies in the netherlands in the period 1971 1986 these hypotheses are i the party choice and turnout decisions are taken sequentially and independently by voters ii social gorups play a central role in the decisionmaking processes in the political sphere iii the effect of individual level variables on party choice is stable over time the results provide support for the first hypothesis and partial support for the second where the specific categorization of individuals to be chosen is a matter that needs further investigation the third hypothesis is rejected by the data the relationship between the variables chosen and party choice proved to be unstable

green transition of energy systems in rural china national survey evidence of households discrete choices on water heaters abstract energy systems in rural china are experiencing a transition from traditional fossil fuels to renewables this paper aims to investigate the potential factors that influence the choices of rural residents regarding water heaters with a focus on the low carbon transition to solar water heating systems to this end a face to face questionnaire survey is undertaken with 3404 rural households randomly selected among 12 representative provinces a comprehensive set of discrete choice modelling approaches were used the empirical results show that 1 sociodemographic variables have significant effects on residents first stage choice of a water heater to buy or not to buy but few effects on the second stage decision to choose electric lpg or solar water heaters which type to buy 2 information spillover is important to facilitate the usage of water heaters particularly of solar products 3 the electricity price which is regulated at a very low rate has no apparent effect on the choice of solar water heaters 4 government subsidy has a significant effect in the first stage but no differentiated effect on the decision choice in the second stage policy and managerial implications are presented to speed up the ongoing low carbon transition of energy systems in china

is individual environmental consciousness one of the determinants in transport mode choice this article models negative impact on the environment as one of the attributes of transport mode by this modelling we are able to examine whether individual environmental consciousness of this impact plays a significant role in his her choice of transport mode a survey data from saito and onohara area in northern osaka of japan is used to estimate the model with the heteroscedastic extreme value specification both of the estimated and simulated results imply that individual environmental consciousness does influence his her decision on transport mode choice in the sample furthermore the likelihood ratio tests indicate that both the utility and scale parameters are not equivalent across sub samples of university commuters research facility commuters and residents the results of the comparison across sub samples suggest that sometimes we may learn more from sub dividing a whole sample into several sub samples if we could distinguish them by their characteristics

testing producer perceptions of jointly beneficial best management practices for improved water quality this paper examines producer perceptions of jointly beneficial relationships among best management practices for improved water quality identifying producer tendencies to bundle these types of practices may increase adoption and lower the costs of voluntary adoption programmes particularly those relying on dissemination of information unlike previous studies perceived changes in environmental quality as well as perceived changes in profits are used to define jointly beneficial inputs the econometric model used in the analysis demonstrates that two of the three management practices considered are perceived to be jointly beneficial

heterogeneity of preferences for the benefits of environmental stewardship a latent class approach since 2005 environmental stewardship es has been the principal agri environment scheme for england and is the key instrument for the delivery of increased environmental benefits from agricultural landscapes the main objective of this study is to investigate whether or not individuals preferences for the environmental benefits associated with es vary depending on types of landscapes within which these benefits are delivered a latent class model is applied to data obtained from a choice experiment survey of over 1000 respondents sampled across england the results suggest that individuals have heterogenous preferences for the benefits of es though different segments of the population with more homogenous preferences can be identified in particular higher levels of benefit are often associated with the operation of es in landscapes close to where respondents live this leads to the suggestion that in order to maximise the benefits of es its implementation could take this result into account by encouraging greater uptake from farmers whose land is closer to large populations

are citizens willing to pay for agricultural multifunctionality agricultural multifunctionality is the recognition of the joint exercise of economic environmental and social functions by the agricultural sector in order to make the concept operative for the design of public policies it is necessary to estimate the social demand for such functions the main objective of this article is to present an empirical application in this sense for this purpose we have adopted the agricultural system of cereal steppes in tierra de campos in spain as a case study the economic valuation technique used is the choice experiment the results suggest the existence of a significant demand for the different functions although the demand is heterogeneous depending on the socioeconomic characteristics of the individuals surveyed

modelling choice and switching behaviour between scottish ski centres the paper identifies the need to model the skier s choice of centre and the basic ideas underlying discrete choice models and their estimation it then identifies data requirements and sources the final choice of specification and the estimated parameters of the resultant nested multinomial logit model the results indicate two quite distinct markets for day trippers snow cover cost and to a lesser extent the journey length were the critical factors for those staying overnight the key determinant in this market seems to be accommodation interestingly centres which for the day tripper are competitors become for the overnight customer complementary

are consumers in developing countries willing to pay more for micronutrient dense biofortified foods evidence from a field experiment in uganda vitamin a deficiency is a major health problem in africa and in many other developing countries biofortified staple crops that are high in pro vitamin a have the potential to reduce the prevalence of vitamin a deficiency using a choice experiment with the real product in uganda we quantify the magnitude of the premium or discount in consumers willingness to pay wtp that may be associated with it results suggest that taste plays an important role in consumer acceptance and the provision of nutrition information does translate into substantial premiums for the biofortified variety there is a substantial hypothetical bias in the wtp for the new varieties and while cheap talk mitigates this bias it does not eliminate it

multilateral resistance to migration the rate of migration observed between two countries does not depend solely on their relative attractiveness but also on the one of alternative destinations following the trade literature we term the influence exerted by other destinations on bilateral flows as multilateral resistance to migration and we show how it can be accounted for when estimating the determinants of migration rates in the context of a general individual random utility maximization model we propose the use of the common correlated effects estimator pesaran 2006 and apply it to high frequency data on the spanish immigration boom between 1997 and 2009 compared to more restrictive estimation strategies developed in the literature the bias goes in the expected direction we find a smaller effect of gdp per capita and a larger effect of migration policies on bilateral rates

investigating heterogeneity in brand preferences in logit models for panel data in analyzing panel data the issue of heterogeneity across households is an important consideration if heterogeneity is present but is ignored in the analysis it will result in biased and inconsi

removing heterogeneity bias from logit model estimation this paper introduces a new estimation procedure for the logit model that is an extension of a conditional estimation procedure developed by chamberlain chamberlain g 1978 on the use of panel data working paper harvard university 1 52 chamberlain g 1980 analysis of covariance with qualitative data rev econom stud 47 225 238 the method eliminates heterogeneity bias which is present in the estimates produced by traditional estimation techniques it improves the goodness of fit and explanatory power of these models while incorporating purchase event feedback

early warning systems and systemic banking crises in low income countries a multinomial logit approach abstract this paper estimates an early warning system ews for predicting systemic banking crises in a sample of low income countries in sub saharan africa since the average duration of crises in this sample of countries is longer than one year the predictive performance of standard binomial logit models is likely to be hampered by the so called crisis duration bias the bias arises from the decision to either treat crisis years after the onset of a crisis as non crisis years or remove them altogether from the model to overcome this potential drawback we propose a multinomial logit approach which is shown to improve the predictive power of our ews compared to the binomial logit model our results suggest that crisis events in low income countries are associated with low economic growth drying up of banking system liquidity and widening of foreign exchange net open positions

conjoint analysis of demand for ip telephony the case of japan with the recent diffusion of broadband bb services internet protocol ip telephony is expected to spread significantly in japan this article investigates the demand for ip telephony by using conjoint analysis projecting ip telephony demand also contributes to japanese info communication policy discussions two points are made first ip telephony is still currently considered an optional supplement or an add on service option of high speed bb internet access services in japan rather than a close substitute of existing plain old telephone service pots at this point we find little evidence that many households will promptly forsake their fixed line service for ip telephony second we conclude that the key condition for the proliferation of ip telephony is the complete guarantee of quality of service qos including voice quality number portability fax usage and emergency access comparable to or exceeding that of existing pots

international factor mobility non traded goods tariffs and the terms of trade the present paper develops a general model with one imported one exported many non traded goods where some factors of production are internationally mobile within this framework the analysis establishes the validity of some earlier results and extends others that is 1 a tariff increase reduces the country s welfare 2 tariff induced international factor flows reduce a country s welfare 3 an improvement in a country s terms of trade in the presence of a tariff raises its welfare more when factors are internationally mobile than when not and 4 with preferential trading agreements trade creation always improves the country s welfare while trade diversion may or may not

the willingness to pay for the health care under taiwan s national health insurance system in this study we utilized the nested multinomial logit model to estimate the willingness to pay wtp values for different national health insurance nhi coverage plans in taiwan the wtp value for having care from clinics in a hospital care only hco plan is nt 178 us 6 per person month the wtp value for having care from hospitals in a clinic care only cco plan is nt 1342 us 43 per person month the wtp value for the nhi with a universal coverage uc is nt 1540 us 49 per person month the figure nt 1540 us 49 is equivalent to 8 77 of monthly household income much higher than the new premium rate of the new nhi tax 2 5 4 of monthly household income proposed by the taiwan s government our result suggests that taiwan s government may increase the new premium rate further in order to make taiwan s nhi financially more sustainable

the effects of social security reforms on retirement ages and retirement incomes abstract recent changes legislated in the u s social security system have altered the economic incentives to work and retire some older workers will respond to these new incentives by retiring at different ages this paper evaluates the signs and magnitudes of these responses four specific changes in the structure of social security benefits are examined raising the normal retirement age delaying the cost of living adjustment lowering early retirement benefits and increasing late retirement payments behavioral parameters are estimated using an ordered logit model of retirement ages these are used to predict how retirement behavior might respond to each of the four reforms predicted changes in retirement ages will be too small to compensate retirees for reductions in benefit formulas thus the social security s financial burden will be eased but retirees incomes will fall on average

discrete choice models with multiple unobserved choice characteristics since the pioneering work by daniel mcfadden utility maximization based multinomial response models have become important tools of empirical researchers various generalizations of these models have been developed to allow for unobserved heterogeneity in taste parameters and choice characteristics here we investigate how rich a specification of the unobserved components is needed to rationalize arbitrary choice patterns in settings with many individual decision makers multiple markets and large choice sets we find that if one restricts the utility function to be monotone in the unobserved choice characteristics then up to two unobserved choice characteristics may be needed to rationalize the choices

characteristics of households in the informal sector of an emerging economy using the case study of trinidad and tobago we investigate the socio economic demographic and attitudinal characteristics of households that participate in the informal sector of an emerging economy and their perception of the risk of detection by tax authorities while doing so data are gathered from a cross sectional field survey covering 570 households results using multinomial logit and ordered probit models suggest that households are motivated to participate in the informal sector when members spend little time in formal sector activity believe that taxes are too high and their incomes are too low have dependents to support and believe that the resulting tax evasion will go undetected their perception of the risk of detection by the tax authority is determined largely by the income they earn in the formal sector and the extent of government bureaucracy prevailing there

valuing diversification benefits through intercropping in mediterranean agroecosystems a choice experiment approach abstract the agricultural sector faces a series of environmental challenges such as water and soil pollution erosion or biodiversity loss especially in monoculture systems alternatively crop diversification is seen as an option to reduce negative impacts and to enhance agricultural ecosystem services es most of these es such as improving resilience despite the benefits and the high social value do not take part in the market in this context the present paper presents an analysis of social preferences regarding crop diversification practices in mediterranean agroecosystems to do so a choice experiment has been developed to assess social demand for more welfare improving agricultural cropping systems benefits were obtained from improving environmental and cultural es provision due to intercropping as crop diversification practices the results show a strong social preference for crop diversification with regard to all the benefits considered in the experiment in fact the total economic value for non market goods and services provided by intercropping which ranges from 900 to 1400 ha year for some crops might be potentially higher than cropland financial benefits these results highlight the social support for a change in agricultural model to reach sustainable agroecosystems which is essential to ensure the success of agrarian and rural development policies

self selection bias in the evaluation of voluntary energy conservation programs while voluntary energy conservation programs have been extensively promoted by electric utilities and public utility commissions their effectiveness has been insufficiently critiqued this paper contributes to the growing evaluation of such programs by measuring the net energy savings directly attributable to an actual set of programs the analysis explicitly corrects for the self selection bias that can arise in program evaluation the correction is found to be important traditional evaluation methods are subject to considerable bias correcting for this bias the amount of program induced energy savings is found to be considerably less than traditionally believed copyright 1988 by mit press

terms of trade shocks and domestic prices under tariffs and quotas a note abstract it is well known that in a partial equilibrium setting import quotas are superior to tariffs in terms of insulating domestic prices against foreign terms of trade shocks the present paper demonstrates however that in a general equilibrium context where the income effects of terms of trade shocks are taken into account domestic prices can be more vulnerable under a quota than under a tariff

estimating a multinomial probit model of brand choice using the method of simulated moments the multinomial probit model of brand choice is theoretically appealing for marketing applications as it is free from the independence of irrelevant alternatives property of the multinomial logit model however difficulties in estimation have restricted its widespread use in marketing this paper presents an application of the method of simulated moments a new methodology that enables easy estimation of probit models with a large number of alternatives in the choice set we describe the theoretical development of the technique and using pseudo simulated data conduct numerical experiments to compare the method with existing techniques for estimating probit models using the scanner panel data on the purchases of catsup we provide an empirical application of the method of simulated moments to the estimation of the parameters of a multinomial probit model estimating the covariance structure associated with the underlying latent variable probit model enables us to identify broad patterns of similarities across alternatives it also enables us to derive a pairwise similarity matrix across choice alternatives which when input into a multi dimensional scaling routine provides us with a graphical representation of competitive structure in the catsup market for completeness we compare the substantive implications for the effects of marketing variables obtained from the multinomial probit model with those obtained from models in the extant marketing literature

semiparametric analysis to estimate the deal effect curve abstract the marketing literature suggests several phenomena that may contribute to the nature of the relationship between sales and price discounts these phenomena can produce complex nonlinearities and interactions in the deal effect curve that are best captured with a flexible approach because a fully nonparametric regression model suffers from the curse of dimensionality the authors propose a semiparametric regression model store level sales over time are modeled as a nonparametric function of own and cross item price discounts and a parametric function of other predictors the authors compare the predictive validity of the semiparametric model with that of two parametric benchmark models and obtain superior performance the results for three product categories indicate threshold and saturation effects for both ownand cross item temporary price cuts the authors also find that the nature of the own item curve depends on other items price discounts comparisons with restricted model specification

assessing the economic viability of alternative water resources in water scarce regions combining economic valuation cost benefit analysis and discounting abstract this paper demonstrates a comprehensive methodology for assessing the viability of an environmental management plan that has long run economic and ecological impacts the case study under consideration is the implementation of a water resource management plan in a water scarce region of the world namely cyprus specifically this plan proposes to replenish a depleting aquifer with treated wastewater the proposed methodology first identifies the key stakeholder groups farmers and the general public who are hypothesized to derive economic values benefits from implementation of this plan and then uses stated preference methods to capture the total economic value of these benefits benefits are aggregated over the relevant populations of these stakeholder groups and weighed against the total costs of implementing the plan in a long run cost benefit analysis cba an econometrically estimated time declining trajectory of discount rates is used for the cba in order to assess the long run sustainability of the plan the results reveal that the net benefit trajectory estimated with the time declining discount rate takes one and a half to three times as long to come to a plateau compared to the constant discount rates of 3 5 and 6 emphasizing the importance of using declining discount rates and capturing the entirety of the benefits generated by such plans this methodology is particularly recommended for providing much needed information to support the implementation of the eu water framework directive which advocates the use of cba with consideration of the notion of sustainability for achieving the good water status for all european waters

hypercongestion in production correspondences an empirical exploration this empirical contribution reviews the rather limited existing literature measuring congestion in production it first compares current ways to measure congestion using nonparametric specifications of technologies in particular it focuses on the magnitude and incidence of the congestion detected in empirical studies using traditional radial efficiency measures thereafter it shows the limitations of this radial measurement and how alternative measurement schemes may reveal higher amounts of congestion then the new more general methodology of measuring s congestion is presented in particular we first present a numerical example to illustrate the way the s disposable technologies allow to capture more extreme forms of congestion by setting empirically determined upper bounds to the wasting of inputs then an empirical illustration is presented based on an existing sample of data a final section concludes

public funding of environmental amenities contingent choices using new taxes or existing revenues for coastal land conservation alternative funding approaches affect stated preferences an individual s willingness to reallocate existing tax dollars exceeds willingness to pay new taxes to conserve land however stated preferences also imply a non zero opportunity cost to existing tax dollars different income groups reveal statistically equivalent marginal utilities both for income and for reallocating tax dollars yet individuals with lower income show a relatively larger increase in their willingness to support land conservation when the choice shifts from new taxes to reallocation of existing tax dollars the paper encourages consideration of equity implications that may be obscured when analysts focus on willingness to pay

taxes and agglomeration economies how are they related to nonprofit firm location author affiliation teresa d harrison department of economics drexel university 3141 chestnut street philadelphia pa 19104 usa tharrison drexel edu1 introductionnonprofits are an ever increasing component of the u s economy from 1997 2001 employment growth in the nonprofit sector averaged 2 5 outpacing both the business 1 8 and the government sectors 1 6 moore 2004 much of this growth stems from new nonprofits yet few studies have investigated possible determinants of nonprofit entry and location decisions most of these studies focus on demand side factors wolch and geiger 1983 downes and greenstein 1996 bielefeld murdoch and waddell 1997 for example downes and greenstein 1996 focus on demographic and religious characteristics of the surrounding community and its relation to private school location in this paper i use firm level data and focus on potentially important supply side variables tax rates and agglomeration economies most nonprofits are exempt from corporate sales and property taxes hansmann 1987 and gulley and santerre 1993 find evidence that higher corporate property and sales taxes are positively related to nonprofit market share however market share measures obfuscate the dynamics of the industry in terms of entry and exit rates if market share for nonprofits increases in response to higher tax rates this could be because new nonprofits are entering or because for profits are leaving the industry identifying these two cases is impossible with market share data using nonprofit tax return data i examine the relation between these tax exemptions and state county location decisions of new nonprofits to my knowledge this is the first paper to study these interactions at the individual firm level nonprofits also receive tax favored status due to the individual tax deduction on charitable contributions gentry and penrod 1998 employees of and donors to the nonprofits will be affected by the individual tax rates this in turn alters the costs to the nonprofit of location in a high or low tax area unlike previous studies i therefore investigate the relation between individual marginal tax rates and nonprofit location another potential supply side determinant of firm location decisions is the existing firm concentration in the area the potential economies of scale generated by proximity to other firms have been extensively examined in for profit industries 1 previous studies have generally found a positive relation between agglomeration and location carlton 1983 bartik 1985 woodward 1992 gius and frese 2002 rosenthal and strange 2003 to my knowledge bielefeld et al 2004 is the only study that examines nonprofit agglomeration finding evidence of agglomeration in dallas texas this warrants additional examination because nonprofit output is generally service driven and less mobile thus agglomeration implies greater direct competition making market saturation a larger issue in the nonprofit market using a nationwide dataset i examine how location and existing firm concentration are related and explore the potential presence of market saturation i also investigate possible differences between inter and intra industry agglomeration my results provide new insight into nonprofit firm behavior in most cases higher tax rates are associated with new firm location but the results for corporate and property taxes vary across the sample years i find that individual tax rates are an important consideration for nonprofits and are positively correlated to location my analysis also contributes to the literature by examining how the sensitivity to tax rates varies according to the sources of revenues for the institution firms that depend highly on individual donations are more likely to locate in high individual tax states while nonprofits with large mission related revenues are more sensitive to the property tax rate

a comparison of choice based multinomial and nested logit models the family structure and welfare use decisions of divorced or separated women home based work differs from other employment because the work site is the home itself this difference means that the fixed costs of working at home are less than the fixed costs of working on site and that home based workers may engage in joint market

parental wealth and first time homeownership a cohort study of family background and young adults housing situation in sweden this paper investigates whether family background seems to have any influence on first time homeownership recent studies have indicated that it has become more difficult to become established in the housing market and such situations may increase the importance of parental wealth in this study parental wealth is estimated as family background information on parents homeownership father s socioeconomic status and single parenting unique cohort data for three birth cohorts suggest that there is a significant cohort effect in young adults tenure decision furthermore the results imply that parents homeownership has become a more important predictor of the transition to first time homeownership for those young adults facing increasing problems in the housing market

location intentions of immigrants at retirement stay return or go back and forth this article analyses the intentions of immigrants regarding their residential choice after retirement three options are investigated stay in the host country go back to the origin country and adopt a mobile strategy sharing time between the host and the origin country defined as back and forth for this purpose we analyse a cross section of non french nationals aged above 45 who are not yet retired the impacts of several potential determinants of such intentions are investigated with particular focus on the effect of the actual location of the respondents children the estimation is conducted using a multinomial logit model instrumental variable technique is used to address the issue of endogenous children s location with respect to parents location intention results suggest that the immigrants prefer to return rather than stay in the host country when their children live in the country of origin however children s location does not seem to affect the back and forth strategy with respe

property rights regimes in complex fishery management systems a choice experiment application the tonle sap wetland fishery was previously divided into 3 different management zones for conservation open access fishing and private fishing rights to the private fishing zone involved auctions for exclusive rights to temporarily designated plots this paper aims to explore the auction based system by investigating how this fishery management system affects different groups of small scale fishermen and how different characteristics of the fishing lots affect the bidding a choice experiment approach was used to model fishermen s choices in a hypothetical auction market by offering fishermen the choice between purchasing different potential fishing lots and a no purchase option implying fishing only in the communal fishing grounds the preferred latent class model with two segments of fishermen showed that the bidding behavior of the more privileged group out competes the other group irrespective of the lot characteristics this result suggests that it is unlikely that the redesign of the auction system itself would be an effective way of securing access to fishing resources for the two observed groups of fishermen this implies that open access fishing grounds and or other regulations may also be needed in future management as they serve an important role for the poorer segments

modeling multiple sources of heterogeneity in multinomial logit models methodological and managerial issues we offer a framework to specify and estimate various sources of heterogeneity in multinomial logit brand choice models we let each brand specific intercept and each parameter of the explanatory variable vector vary randomly across households in addition we distinguish loyal households from the rest our results suggest that incorporating multiple sources of heterogeneity improves the model fit and suggests higher impact of marketing mix elements on brand choice we highlight the importance of incorporating multiple sources of heterogeneity the model we implement yields valuable managerial insights

consumer choice on ecologically efficient water heaters marketing strategy and policy implications in japan abstract this study examines how consumers select ecologically efficient water heaters in japan energy conservation in household water heating is increasingly important for reducing an amount of co 2 emission because the share of water heating in household energy consumption is approximately 30 recently japanese households have widely used ecologically efficient electric heat pump water heaters eco cute or gas fired water heaters eco jozu the total number of such efficient water heaters sold in japan was more than 2 5 million at the end of 2008 this study investigates various factors and impacts of marketing strategy for promoting the appliances in japan we apply mixed and nested logit models to a disaggregated choice data on water heaters from 2004 to 2008 this study considers retail energy prices a government financial support and marketing activities as important factors for appliance selection in addition we consider consumers housing attributes such as floor space and age of building this empirical study finds two business implications one of the two implications is that an increase in an energy price may enhance a choice probability of eco cute and eco jozu because a price increase invites consumer s consciousness on energy conservation so that a cost reduction on energy consumption becomes essential in a use of the efficient appliances the other implication is that marketing activities especially by recommendations from sales representatives and or housing suppliers are important for consumer behaviors the other important findings are discussed in this study this business experience in japan is useful to the other countries where ecologically efficient water heaters are not popular at the current moment

does access to foreign markets shape internal migration evidence from brazil this paper investigates how internal migration is affected by brazil s increased integration into the world economy it analyzes the impact of regional differences in access to foreign demand on sector specific bilateral migration rates between the brazilian states for the years 1995 to 2003 using international trade data a foreign market access measure is computed at the sectoral level which is exogenous to domestic migration a higher foreign market access is associated with a higher local labor demand and attracts workers via two potential channels higher wages and new job opportunities results show that both channels play a significant role in internal migration further we find a heterogeneous impact across industries according to their comparative advantage on the world market however the observed impact is driven by the strong reaction of low educated workers to changes in market access this finding is consistent with the fact that brazil is exporting mainly goods that are intensive in unskilled labor

why do banks merge the banking industry is consolidating at an accelerating pace yet no conclusive results have emerged on the benefits of mergers and acquisitions in order to investigate the motives and results of each type of deal we consider separately acquisitions that is the purchase of the majority of voting shares and mergers using italian data mergers seek to improve income from services but the increase is offset by higher staff costs return on equity improves because of a decrease in capital acquisitions aim to restructure the loan portfolio of the acquired bank improved lending policies result in higher profits

a matter of location the role of regional social capital in overcoming the liability of newness in r d acquisition activities laursen k masciarelli f and reichstein t a matter of location the role of regional social capital in overcoming the liability of newness in r d acquisition activities regional studies external knowledge acquisition is a precondition for firms competitive advantage however young firms exhibit a lower propensity to acquire external research and development r d than their older counterparts the paper explores the role of regional social capital in moderating this aspect of the liability of newness the results show that young firms operating in regions with low levels of social capital are less likely to acquire r d externally however this is not the case in regions with high levels of social capital suggesting that the liability of newness in terms of acquisition of external r d does not play a role in these regions

no place like home relocation capabilities and firm survival in the german machine tool industry after world war ii we explore the extent to which organizational capabilities are location specific by studying the location choices and longevity of east german machine tool producers that relocated to west germany after world war ii relocating firms were similar in performance to experienced west german incumbents they outperformed new entrants without prewar industry experience this suggests they were able to build on capabilities acquired before the war even though relocating firms tended lo locate in industry agglomerations and in urbanized regions we find no evidence suggesting that firm performance benefited from agglomeration economies copyright 2011 the author 2010 published by oxford university press on behalf of associazione icc all rights reserved oxford university press

convergent validity of attribute based choice questions in stated preference studies the application of attribute based choice questions is well established in the marketing literature but there are unique aspects of the design that warrant investigation to assess their validity for economic welfare estimation three design issues are investigated in this paper 1 the placement of the monetary stimulus policy cost to respondents in the sequence of attributes 2 the number of policy alternatives respondents are asked to consider in choice questions two versus three and 3 the inclusion versus exclusion of a status quo alternative in choice questions the data used to implement these investigations are from a survey designed to estimate the value maine residents place on a farmland conservation easement program tests of convergent validity indicate that the placement of the monetary stimulus first versus last in the list of attributes did not affect estimates of preference parameters significant differences between questions with three versus two alternatives did occur and the inclusion exclusion of a status quo alternative did not affect preference parameters

formal choice models in marketing the paper gives an overview and evaluates the theoretical traditions underlying choice models that are used in marketing in particular the emphasis of this essay is on the underlying assumptions limitations and empirical demands of these choice models four fundamental choice models are used as a basis to analyze this complex field the neoclassical economic theory as extended by lancaster the risk preference theory of choices under uncertainty the strict utility theory and the random utility theory these four choice models and their extensions are compared and contrasted along the three critical steps in the model building process theory generation parameterization and estimation

a nonparametric density estimation method for brand choice using scanner data nonparametric density estimation using a kernel method is proposed to model consumer brand choice recent availability of large scanner panel data allows the use of nonparametric approach which has few or at least fewer underlying assumptions and affords greater structural flexibility by removing as many assumptions as possible the author constructs the ultimate nonparametric model radically departing from the traditional approaches to highlight the differences in implementation and performance the proposed model does not involve either parameters that approximate certain distributions as in stochastic models or latent concepts such as utility as in utility maximization models the performance criteria include prediction of market response and brand choice share tracking and robustness under violation of various assumptions involved in parametric choice models such as correlated disturbance and misspecification the method is compared with a popular parametric counterpart the multinomial logit model on simulated and actual scanner panel data the paper emphasizes the conceptual importance of the nonparametric approach by discussing its advantages limitations and its complementary role in developing refining and diagnosing parametric models this perspective affords insight to modeling philosophy and suggests the possibility of a hybrid approach

impact of historical conflict on fdi location and performance japanese investment in china historical relations between countries bring important explanatory power for foreign direct investment fdi decisions yet little is known on whether a home host country relation exhibits heterogeneous effects on fdi across the country s subnational regions in this study we examine the long term impact of historical conflict on fdi location choices and performance using a sample of 8 646 japanese fdi in china we show that civilian casualties in different provinces of china during the second sino japanese war exert deterring effects on japanese fdi location choices furthermore we demonstrate that civilian casualties negatively affect japanese fdi performance and political capital accumulation strategies in the forms of excessive tax payment and local employment can reduce this negative effect this study contributes to the discussion on how within country differences of historical factors affect fdi location decisions and performance the findings on firms political capital accumulation strategies also provide important implications for fdi operation in an environment characterized by historical animosity

customs union and unemployment in ldcs abstract welfare effects of customs union are examined for a small open economy with unemployment of labor of harris todaro type and some new results are reported specifically it is demonstrated that for ldcs afflicted with urban unemployment trade creating customs union continues to be an effective policy

re employment probabilities of unemployment benefit recipients this article studies transitions out of unemployment for benefit recipients in spain we analyse the duration of unemployment distinguishing between spells that end in recall workers returning to the previous employer and spells that end in exit to a new job this distinction allows us to find that the recall hazard rate increases around the time of exhaustion of benefits however this happens only for workers receiving unemployment insurance ui because we are unable to replicate this result for workers receiving unemployment assistance ua we believe the finding lends support to the hypothesis that in spain firms and workers make a strategic use of ui

international factor mobility minimum wage rates and factor price equalization a synthesis this paper examines the behavior of a small open economy facing perfectly elastic supply curves for some of its productive factors in particular the paper derives some comparative statics properties of such economies compares them with the properties of otherwise identical economies in which all factor prices are determined endogenously and investigates the relationship between factor price rigidities factor price equalization and the pattern of specialization among the new results which are proved it is shown that as more and more factor price rigidities are imposed on an economy it comes closer to a state of factor price equalization

choice of contracts in the british national health service an empirical study following major reforms of the british national health service nhs in 1990 the roles of purchasing and providing health services were separated with the relationship between purchasers and providers governed by contracts using a mixed multinomial logit analysis we show how this policy shift led to a selection of contracts that is consistent with the predictions of a simple model based on contract theory in which the characteristics of the health services being purchased and of the contracting parties influence the choice of contract form the paper thus provides evidence in support of the practical relevance of theory in understanding health care market reform

accounting for heterogeneity and nonstationarity in a cross sectional model of consumer purchase behavior when calibrating a brand choice model cross sectionally a measure of brand loyalty is often introduced into the utility function to account for differences in utility across households and over time one of the most widely used measures of brand loyalty proposed by guadagni and little 1983 is an exponential smoothing model of past choice behavior by the household in this study we argue that the exponential smoothing model of brand loyalty cannot properly distinguish between sources of variation in utility due to heterogeneity across households and sources of variation due to nonstationarity within household over time we introduce a new measure of brand loyalty derived from a nonstationary dirichlet multinomial choice model in which heterogeneity and nonstationarity are handled distinctly

quality perceptions and asymmetric switching between brands rotating indifference curves are used to induce an income effect that favors superior brands at the expense of inferior brands in a discrete choice model when calibrated on scanner panel data the model yields an objective measure of brand quality which is related to the rate of rotation the model also leads to asymmetric responses to price promotions where switching up to high quality brands is more likely than switching down the model is capable of nesting the standard logit model and is similar to a nested logit model when there exists clusters of brands of like quality the model is used to explore a product line pricing decision where profits are maximized subject to the constraint that consumer utility is maintained

towards a new early warning system of financial crises abstract this paper develops a new early warning system ews model based on a multinomial logit model for predicting financial crises it is shown that commonly used ews approaches which use binomial discrete dependent variable models are subject to what we call a post crisis bias this bias arises when no distinction is made between tranquil periods when economic fundamentals are largely sound and sustainable and crisis post crisis periods when economic variables go through an adjustment process before reaching a more sustainable level or growth path we show that applying a multinomial logit model which allows distinguishing between more than two states is a valid way of solving this problem and constitutes a substantial improvement in the ability to forecast financial crises the empirical results reveal that for a set of 20 open emerging markets for the period 1993 2001 the model would have correctly predicted a large majority of crises in emerging markets

statistical testing of bounded rationality with applications to the newsvendor model abstract in this paper we define bounded rationality in terms of probabilistic cost efficiency this establishes a framework where bounded rationality can be examined rigorously by statistical methods we apply this theory to data from laboratory experiments on the newsvendor model we enter into a theoretical discussion of the classical pull to center effect and explain why underorders are typically larger than overorders

valuing financial health and environmental benefits of bt cotton in pakistan data from a farm survey and choice experiment are used to value the benefits of bt cotton in pakistan unlike previous research on the economic impacts of bt which mostly concentrated on financial benefits in terms of gross margins we also quantify and monetize positive externalities associated with technology adoption due to lower chemical pesticide use on bt cotton plots there are significant health advantages in terms of reduced incidence of acute pesticide poisoning and environmental advantages in terms of higher biodiversity and lower soil and groundwater contamination these positive externalities are valued at us 79 per acre of which half is attributable to health and the other half to environmental improvements adding average gross margin gains of us 204 results in an aggregate benefit of us 283 per acre of bt or us 1 7 billion for the total bt cotton area in pakistan

employment and child care choices in canada and the united states in this paper we examine employment and child care choices of two parent families with young children in the united states and canada using a pooled data set based on recent national surveys in each country we find that the employment and child care choices of canadian families are similar to those of u s families estimates of a model of employment and child care choices indicate significant effects of child care subsidies child care prices and wage rates on employment and child care choices however none of these factors helps to explain the differences in employment and child care choices between the two countries ce memoire examine le choix de l emploi et du soin des enfants dans les familles ou il y deux parents aux etats unis et au canada en utilisant des donnees d etudes recentes dans les deux pays il appert que les choix des familles canadiennes sont semblables a ceux des familles americaines les calibrations d un modele de ces choix montrent les effets significatifs des subventions au soin des enfants du prix des soins des enfants et des taux de salaires sur ces choix cependant aucun de ces facteurs n explique les diffrences dans les patterns de choix entre les deux pays

quantifying the effects from horizontal mergers comments on the underlying assumptions in our paper published in this issue we measured the effects of the proposed volvo scania merger we first estimated an oligopoly model with product differentiation and then used the parameter estimates to compute the post merger equilibrium and the implied price and welfare changes under various alternative scenarios in section 4 4 of our paper we discussed what we view as the most important sources of concern regarding our empirical analysis in part based on the comments from the experts hired by volvo during the case the hausman leonard hl paper elaborates in more detail on the specific points raised by the experts during the case in this note we respond to these points

surface mining of coal efficiency of us interior mines in this paper the relative efficiency in surface mining of us interior coal is investigated a nonparmetric non stochasitic method is applied to 186 observations and esch firm s efficiency is calculated relative to the piecewise llinesr frontier technology in adition three sources of inefficiency are identified namely scale congestion and purely technical inefficiency the outcome of the study shows among other things that on the average captive mines are more efficient than non captive mines and that unionized mines are more efficient than non unionized mines

the equity efficiency trade off in environmental policy evidence from stated preferences the design of environmental policy raises several equity issues in particular the distribution of benefits and costs at the same time it has often been argued that there is a trade off in environmental policy between equity and efficiency which brings these issues firmly to the attention of environmental economics in this paper we use a simple choice experiment to elicit individual preferences over equity efficiency trade offs in the context of two environmental problems local air pollution and global climate change we find that equity matters to people as much as efficiency does in the design and delivery of environmental policy

e business usage across and within firms in the uk profitability externalities and policy using data from the third uk community innovation survey we model the usage of e business across and within firms in the uk in the year 2000 as a single observation upon an integrated process of inter and intra firm diffusion the intra firm dimension is a significant extension to standard analysis the model estimates indicate that the pattern of e business usage reflects the heterogeneity of firms in terms of size other innovative activity and labour force skills generating differences in the payoffs to use as well as market and non market intermediated externalities the policy implications of the findings are discussed c 2008 elsevier b v all rights reserved

a probit model of choice dynamics there are many products which are repeatedly purchased by consumers in such cases it is likely that choice history that is the sequence of choices made in the past as well as marketing variables affect subsequent choice decisions attempts to model the effects of choice history have been generally based on the inclusion of variables that represent brand loyalty and or variety seeking behavior in this paper we present a model of dynamic choice behavior which is more general and incorporates four characteristics the first characteristic labeled preference reinforcement and preference reduction represents loyalty and variety seeking the second is the short term reluctance of a consumer to move from the current brand inertia or the willingness to move to another brand mobility the third characteristic captures the effect of repetitive consumption the long term effect on inertia and mobility the fourth characteristic incorporates the similarity or dissimilarity of choice alternatives this is important in a dynamic model because choice on the current purchase occasion can be affected by whether a similar or dissimilar alternative was chosen on the previous occasion similarities of alternatives are represented in terms of distances the effect of price on choice behavior is also modeled individual level purchase data from a consumer panel are used to estimate a covariance probit and an independent probit specification of the model from a substantive perspective the model gives interesting insights into the dynamics of choice behavior the model predicts switches better than a benchmark model which incorporates only loyalty in addition it is superior to three benchmark models in overall predictive ability

non parametric estimation of econometric functionals in this paper we have reviewed and explored the non parametric density estimation approach for analysing various econometric functionals the applications of density estimation have been emphasized in the specification estimation and testing problems arising in econometrics some limitations of the non parametric approach are also examined and potential future areas of applied and theoretical research have been indicated

the transhipment problem smuggling and welfare in paraguay abstract this paper studies the effects of contraband on resource allocation and welfare using parguayan data a major portion of exports from this economy involves the transhipment of goods from third countries through paraguay to brazil and argentina to avoid trade taxes both explicit and implicit via quantitative restrictions and multiple exchange rates using international and paraguayan databases for 1990 we calculate that contraband accounted for 58 of exports and 31 of imports finally we estimate that such trade increased welfare by 2 1 of gdp

do two earner households base their choice of residential location on both incomes this article focuses on the role of individual incomes in the residential location decisions of two earner households conventional studies often treat households as a black box and describe them by a single utility function the article raises the question is the household utility paradigm an adequate framework for understanding the location decisions of two earner households it tests an implication of the household utility paradigm the income pooling hypothesis for location decisions the results provide evidence for rejecting the hypothesis among childless families but fail to provide evidence for rejecting it when children are present the results raise the need to address intrahousehold dynamics in modelling location decisions