learning to believe in sunspots a number of authors have shown that competitive economies may possess sunspot equilibria that is rational expectations equilibria in which purely extrinsic uncertainty affects equilibrium prices and allocations 2 such results demonstrate that it does not require a lack of faith in the rationality of market participants to believe that competitive markets may be subject to purely speculative fluctuations driven solely by expectations 3 the mere existence of sunspot equilibria as solutions to a system of marketclearing conditions however might not be judged sufficient to indicate that competitive markets with rational participants could ever be subject to speculative instability the sunspot equilibria represent states of affairs in which agents act differently in the case of different realizations of the sunspot variable and it is rational for each agent to do so but it might be thought unlikely that the beliefs of all the participants in the market could ever come to be coordinated so as to bring about an equilibrium of that kind it is rational to believe that sunspots convey information about future states of affairs once the economy is in a sunspot equilibrium but why would rational agents ever begin to believe in such a thing so as to create the conditions under which the belief is rational in order to address such a question one must go beyond the mere statement of the conditions for equilibrium and discussion of what states of affairs satisfy them one must specify an explicit dynamic process according to which the beliefs of agents adjust when out of equilibrium any exercise of this kind is necessarily unsatisfactory as there is no univocal meaning for the postulate of rational behavior outside of an equilibrium it may well be the case that

information to guide policy responses to higher global food prices the data and analyses required abstract national decision makers must understand the degree to which their country and population groups within it are exposed to the negative effects of higher global food prices or could exploit new economic opportunities offered by higher prices this paper provides a conceptual overview of the range of data and analyses that will permit leaders and analysts serving them to assess the broad implications of higher global food prices for a country and its population groups what we find is that there are a relatively small number of types of policy responses that governments might take in the face of a food price rise consequently relatively well defined sets of data need to be compiled and types of analyses used by government to generate the information needed to broadly guide efforts to prevent food price increases from becoming crises and to derive any possible benefits international joint action can be employed profitably both to collect this data and to build national capacity to conduct the analyses needed to guide policy formulation and general program design in the face of the risks and the opportunities of higher food prices and to evaluate the effectiveness of those policy responses

the unequal geographic burden of federal taxation in the united states workers in cities offering above average wages cities with high productivity low quality of life or inefficient housing sectors pay 27 percent more in federal taxes than otherwise identical workers in cities offering below average wages according to simulation results taxes lower long run employment levels in high wage areas by 13 percent and land and housing prices by 21 and 5 percent causing locational inefficiencies costing 0 23 percent of income or 28 billion in 2008 employment is shifted from north to south and from urban to rural areas tax deductions index taxes partially to local cost of living improving locational efficiency

quality of life firm productivity and the value of amenities across canadian cities we estimate quality of life and productivity differences across canada s metropolitan areas in a hedonic general equilibrium framework these are based on the estimated willingness to pay of heterogeneous households and firms to locate in various cities which differ in their wage levels housing costs and land values using 2006 canadian census data our metropolitan quality of life estimates are somewhat consistent with popular rankings yet find canadians care more about climate and culture quality of life is highest in victoria for anglophones montreal for francophones and vancouver for allophones and lowest in more remote cities toronto is canada s most productive city vancouver is the overall most valuable city qualite de vie productivite des entreprises et la valeur des avantages dans les diverses villes canadiennes on evalue les differences entre la qualite de vie et la productivite des entreprises entre les zones metropolitaines au canada a l aide d un cadre d analyse d equilibre general hedonique ces metriques sont basees sur l estimation de la volonte de payer de menages et d entreprises heterogenes pour se localiser dans diverses villes qui different tant pour ce qui est des niveaux de salaires des couts de l habitation et des prix des terrains a l aide des donnees du recensement canadien de 2006 on construit des evaluations de la qualite de vie des diverses zones metropolitaines qui s arriment convenablement aux ordonnancements en vogue mais on decouvre que les canadiens portent une attention particuliere au climat et a la culture la qualite de vie est la plus elevee a victoria pour les anglophones a montreal pour les francophones et a vancouver pour les allophones et la plus faible pour les villes eloignees des grands centres toronto est la ville la plus productive vancouver est generalement la plus appreciee

timing and real indeterminacy in monetary models an increasingly common approach to the theoretical analysis of monetary policy is to ensure that a proposed policy does not introduce real indeterminacy and thus sunspot fluctuations into the model economy policy is typically conducted in terms of directives for the nominal interest rate this paper uses a discrete time money in the utility function model to demonstrate how seemingly minor modifications in the trading environment result in dramatic differences in the policy restrictions needed to ensure real determinacy these differences arise because of the differing pricing equations for the nominal interest rate

what are cities worth land rents local productivity and the total value of amenities abstract this paper models how to use widely available data on wages and housing costs to infer land rents local productivity and the total value of local amenities in the presence of federal taxes and locally produced nontraded goods i apply the model to u s metropolitan areas with the aid of visually intuitive graphs the results improve measures of productivity and feature large differences in land rents wage and housing cost differences across metropolitan areas are accounted for more by productivity than quality of life differences regressions using individual amenities reveal that the most productive and valuable cities are typically coastal sunny mild educated and large

evolving monetary fiscal policy mix in the united states a micro founded model that allows for changes in the monetary fiscal policy mix and in the volatility of structural shocks is fit to us post wwii data agents are aware of the possibility of regime changes and their beliefs have an impact on the law of motion of the macroeconomy the results show that the 60s and the 70s were characterized by a prolonged period of active fiscal policy and passive monetary policy the appointment of volcker marked a change in the conduct of monetary policy but it took almost ten years for the fiscal authority to start accommodating this regime change

testing for indeterminacy an application to u s monetary policy reply this paper considers a prototypical new keynesian model in which the equilibrium is undetermined if monetary policy is passive the likelihood based estimation of dynamic equilibrium models is extended to allow for indeterminacies and sunspot fluctuations we construct posterior weights for the determinacy and indeterminacy region of the parameter space and estimates for the propagation of fundamental and sunspot shocks according to the estimated model u s monetary policy post 1982 is consistent with determinacy whereas the pre volcker policy is not we find that before 1979 indeterminacy substantially altered the propagation of shocks

driving to opportunity local rents wages commuting costs and sub metropolitan quality of life we examine variation in local rents wage levels commuting costs household characteristics and amenities within metropolitan areas for 2071 areas covering the united states by density and central city status we demonstrate the sensibility of estimating wage levels by workplace not residence and recover decentralized rent gradients that fall with commuting costs we construct and map a willingness to pay index which indicates the quality of life typical households receive from local amenities when households are similar mobile and informed this index varies considerably within metros and is typically high in areas that are dense suburban sunny mild safe entertaining and have elevated school funding

compensating differentials in emerging labor and housing markets estimates of quality of life in russian cities abstract the purpose of this paper is to see if an equilibrium model of compensating differences for amenities can be applied to a major transition economy russia we analyze russian labor and housing markets using data from the russian longitudinal monitoring survey rlms augmented by city and regional specific characteristics from other sources our estimated wage and housing value equations suggest that workers are compensated for differences in climate environmental conditions ethnic conflicts crime rates and health conditions after controlling for worker characteristics occupation industry and economic conditions and various housing characteristics we find evidence that these compensating differentials exist even after controlling for the regional pay differences regional coefficients used by the russian government to compensate public sector workers for living in regions that are designated as less desirable quality of life as measured by a group of eleven amenities varies substantially the highest ranked cities tend to be in relatively warm areas and areas in the western european part of the country our quality of life index is positively correlated with net migration into a region suggesting workers are attracted to amenity rich locations overall we find that a model of compensating differentials with controls for disequilibrium yields useful information about compensation for location specific amenities and quality of life in this large transition economy

monetary policy trend inflation and the great moderation an alternative interpretation with positive trend inflation the taylor principle does not guarantee a determinate equilibrium we provide new theoretical results on determinacy in new keynesian models with positive trend inflation and new empirical findings on the federal reserve s reaction function before and after the volcker disinflation to find that i while the fed likely satisfied the taylor principle before volcker the us economy was still subject to self fulfilling fluctuations in the 1970s ii the us economy switched to determinacy during the volcker disinflation and iii the switch reflected changes in the fed s response to macroeconomic variables and the decline in trend inflation jel e12 e23 e31 e32 e52

would freeing up world trade reduce poverty and inequality the vexed role of agricultural distortions trade policy reforms in recent decades have sharply reduced the distortions that were harming agriculture in developing countries yet global trade in farm products continues to be far more distorted than trade in nonfarm goods those distortions reduce some forms of poverty and inequality but worsen others so the net effects are unclear without empirical modeling this paper summarizes a series of new economy wide global and national empirical studies that focus on the net effects of the remaining distortions to world merchandise trade on poverty and inequality globally and in various developing countries the global linkage model results suggest that removing those remaining distortions would reduce international inequality largely by boosting net farm incomes and raising real wages for unskilled workers in developing countries and would reduce the number of poor people worldwide by 3 percent the analysis based on the global trade analysis project model for a sample of 15 countries and nine stand alone national case studies all point to larger reductions in poverty especially if only the non poor are subjected to increased income taxation to compensate for the loss of trade tax revenue

expectations learning and business cycle fluctuations this paper explores an alternative theory based on learning dynamics in the con text of an otherwise standard stochastic growth model we consider an environment in which households and firms have an incomplete model of the macroeconomy knowing only their own objectives constraints and beliefs agents are optimizing have a completely specified belief system but do not know the equilibrium map ping between primitive disturbances the aggregate state of the economy and mar ket clearing prices by extrapolating from historical patterns in observed data they approximate this mapping to forecast variables that are exogenous to their decision problems such as the rental rate of capital and the real wage this belief structure has the property that beliefs affect the true data generating process of the economy which in turn affects belief formation the economy is therefore self referential shifts in beliefs about future returns to labor and capital affect current market clear ing prices which in turn can reinforce beliefs in this environment current prices can become less informative about future economic conditions generating fluctuations in real activity this kind of mechanism driving business cycle fluctuations is found in early writ ings on macroeconomic dynamics for example alfred c pigou 1927 on page 122 writes

understanding the impact of high food prices in latin america since the late 1980s almost all latin american countries have adopted a series of far reaching economic reforms especially trade financial and capital account liberalization increased economic openness has gone hand in hand with large financial inflows particularly in the first half of the 1990s and has brought new sources of economic growth as a result economies grew inflation declined and there was a big surge in foreign cap ital inflows although overall growth slowed after 1995 the region has expe rienced strong growth in the past five years the best sustained performance since the 1970s with the exception of a handful of countries this economic growth has been accompanied by relatively modest inflation despite these positive results virtually all latin american countries share similar problems uneven economic growth unacceptably high poverty and malnutrition rates and lagging agricultural growth more than 60 percent of the region s poor live in rural areas where slow economic growth unequal distribution of assets inadequate public investment and public services and vulnerability to natural and economic shocks are major policy issues the 2007 08 food price crisis exacerbated these problems prior to the cri sis the region was considered relatively stable and capable of absorbing exter nal shocks thanks to its higher foreign exchange liquidity decreased public sector and external borrowing needs exchange rate flexibility lower exposure to currency interest rate and rollover risks in public sector debt portfolios and improved access to local currency loans nevertheless the food price cri sis severely affected most of the latin american countries in terms of inflation especially food inflation

changing food prices and rural welfare a nonparametric examination of the cote d ivoire changes in and absolute levels of agricultural pricing and food production may affect consumer food prices producer incentives income distribution and government revenue the nature of these relationships and effects are of especial policy concern in developing countries nonparametric estimation techniques are applied to 1985 living standards household survey data of the cote divoire to estimate the impact of a food price change on income distribution this study examines how food prices are related to agricultural income across rural income in the country in examining a different country considering a wider variety of crops estimating engel curves and applying confidence bands the analysis extends work of a s deaton analysis indicates that while food grown for home consumption is important net food sales and a percentage of total expenditure seem inconsequential at any level of welfare agricultural households grow crops to meet their consumption needs and sell the surplus only when harvests are especially bountiful income elasticities with respect to prices are therefore small these findings suggest that no simple set of small price changes will significantly increase the marketed surplus of food and that structural adjustment policies may be pursued without concern for devastating poor households research is needed into ways of increasing food production through methods other than price changes results also indicate that price increases do not necessarily benefit only large well off farms and that a wide range of issues may be considered with nonparametric estimation techniques

distributional effects of maize price increases in malawi abstractin the wake of highly volatile world prices of staple commodities we examine the impacts of increases in maize prices on various categories of households in malawi using household level data changes in household income are calculated taking into account the net maize production status of the household and food price elasticities estimated from a censored demand system while maize price increases have unequivocal deleterious effects on the incomes of urban households rural households experience differential impacts net producing households in rural areas benefit from price increases with households above the poverty line obtaining proportionally higher incomes

long term impacts of global food crisis on production decisions evidence from farm investments in indonesia did the rise in food prices have a long term impact on agricultural production using household level panel data from seven provinces of indonesia this paper finds that the price shock created a forward looking incentive to invest which can dynamically enhance productivity in agriculture it also finds that the impact of the price shock on investment behavior differs by initial wealth in response to price increases wealthy farmers invested more in productive assets while poor farmers increased their financial savings as well as consumption price spikes relax liquidity constraints which increases investments among the richer while do so savings and consumptions among the poor possibly leading to diverging income inequality in the long run

an application of a stated preference method to value urban amenities this is a case study analysis of how residents value the amenities of a small us city missoula montana a measure of a community s amenity values is needed in city planning so as to protect those

estimating dsge models with zero interest rate policy we propose estimating dsge models in which the central bank fixes the policy rate for an extended period of time and apply our approach to estimate expected durations of the federal reserve s zero interest rate policy since 2009 we find a large increase in expected duration in 2011 with the move to calendar based guidance and a decrease in 2013 with the taper tantrum these changes are identified by the influence of expected duration on output inflation and interest rates at longer maturities the structural model measures the severity of the zero lower bound constraint and the effects of unconventional policy

union membership in the united states 1973 1981 this paper reports estimates of union membership gathered from may current population surveys from 1973 to 1981 the authors present data by occupation industry selected states and smsas race gender and educational attainment the paper both extends and differs from that by freeman and medoff which presents unionism estimates for the private sector for 1968 75 to facilitate longitudinal analysis this paper reports three year moving averages of occupational and industry data and annual estimates of demographic classifications the data include public sector as well as private sector workers and they exclude workers not covered by the national labor relations act also the authors provide only union membership estimates not estimates on workers covered by union contracts this paper suggests that the percentage of all workers that are unionized in the united states remained fairly constant over the 1973 81 period

public infrastructure and wages public capital s role as a productive input and household amenity production function studies typically conclude that public capital plays little role in enhancing productivity however others have found that infrastructure and employment growth are positively related these apparently conflicting results can be reconciled if public capital serves as a household amenity that increases labor supply without dramatically increasing productivity this study examines the impact of public capital on wages in order to assess whether productivity or amenity effects dominate for the economy as a whole the results suggest that highway s strongest role is as a household amenity however for the manufacturing sector the productivity effect of highways appears to dominate

e stability vis a vis determinacy in regime switching models abstract this paper examines e stability determinacy and indeterminacy in a general class of regime switching models with lagged endogenous variables using determinacy conditions from cho 2016 2020 our first result extends mccallum 2007 to models with time varying parameters the unique mean square stable equilibrium is e stable if agents have current information and one period ahead decision rules further we address the existence of e stable non fundamental equilibria and find that iteratively e stable equilibria of indeterminate switching models can exist finally we show that indeterminate new keynesian models with persistent recurring interest rate peg regimes admit iteratively e stable equilibria in special cases the iterative e stability condition coincides with the long run taylor principle

argentine agricultural policy in a multiple input multiple output framework argentine agricultural output grew at a rate of about 1 4 per year between 1940 and 1972 cavallo and mundlak p 13 which is a very sluggish growth rate given earlier rates of 1 8 for 1908 20 and 2 2 1920 40 schultz it also is sluggish relative to growth in u s agricultural output of 1 9 during the same period adjusting for factor use total factor productivity in argentine agriculture grew at a rate of only 0 6 during this period compared to 1 2 in the rest of the argentine economy cavallo and mundlak and compared to about 1 9 in u s agriculture usda a number of hypotheses have been offered to

learning about monetary policy rules abstract we study macroeconomic systems with forward looking private sector agents and a monetary authority that is trying to control the economy through the use of a linear policy feedback rule we use stability under recursive learning a la evans and honkapohja learning and expectations in macroeconomics princeton university press princeton new jersey 2001 as a criterion for evaluating monetary policy rules in this context we find that considering learning can alter the evaluation of alternative policy rules

on non uniqueness in rational expectations models an attempt at perspective abstract many macroeconomic models involving rational expectations give rise to an infinity of solution paths even when the models are linear in all variables some writers have suggested that this non uniqueness constitutes a serious weakness for the rational expectations hypothesis one purpose of the present paper is to argue that the non uniqueness in question is not properly attributable to the rationality hypothesis but instead is a general feature of dynamic models involving expectations it is also argued that there typically exists in a very wide class of linear rational expectations models a single solution that excludes bubble or bootstrap effects one that occur only because they are arbitrarily expected to occur a systematic procedure for obtaining solutions free from such effects is introduced and discussed in addition this procedure is used to interpret and reconsider several prominent examples with solution multiplicities including ones developed by fischer black and john b taylor

monetary fiscal policy interactions and fiscal stimulus abstract increases in government spending trigger substitution effects both inter and intra temporal and a wealth effect the ultimate impacts on the economy hinge on current and expected monetary and fiscal policy behavior studies that impose active monetary policy and passive fiscal policy typically find that government consumption crowds out private consumption higher future taxes create a strong negative wealth effect while the active monetary response increases the real interest rate this paper estimates markov switching policy rules for the united states and finds that monetary and fiscal policies fluctuate between active and passive behavior when the estimated joint policy process is imposed on a conventional new keynesian model government spending generates positive consumption multipliers in some policy regimes and in simulated data in which all policy regimes are realized the paper reports the model s predictions of the macroeconomic impacts of the american recovery and reinvestment act s implied path for government spending under alternative monetary fiscal policy combinations

which comes first jobs or people an analysis of the recent stylized facts abstract in contrast to previous studies that only examined employment growth and migration to determine whether people or jobs move first this paper uses an integrative labor market framework the integrative approach leads to additional labor market variables being examined such as wages labor productivity unemployment and labor force participation

wage differentials across labor markets and workers does cost of living matter wage differentials studies rarely account for interarea differences in cost of living owing both to data limitations and theoretical ambiguity this study develops a price index for 185 metropolitan areas comprising about 70 of the u s labor force current population survey data for 1985 95 and data on sitespecific amenities are used to estimate earnings differentials based on nominal wages wages fully adjusted for measured cost of living and a simple approximation of real wages with partial adjustment for pricelevel differences dispersion in approximate real wages across 185 labor markets and differentials by region and city size are substantially lower than dispersion in nominal or full adjustment wages estimates of racial and ethnic differentials display moderate sensitivity to choice of a wage measure whereas other standard differentials do not both nominal wages and wages fully adjusted for cost of living may provide misleading estimates of real wage differentials absent data on interarea prices and amenities researchers should include detailed controls for region and city size in nominal wage equations jel j31 r23

inflation forecasts and monetary policy proposals for inflation targeting as a strategy for monetary policy leave open the important operational question of how to determine whether current policies are consistent with the long run inflation target an interesting possibility is that the central bank might target current private sector forecasts of inflation either those made explicitly by professional forecasters or those implicit in asset prices we address the issue of existence and uniqueness of rational expectations equilibria when the central bank uses private sector forecasts as a guide to policy actions in a dynamic model which incorporates both sluggish price adjustment and shocks to aggregate demand and aggregate supply we show that strict targeting of inflation forecasts is typically inconsistent with the existence of rational expectations equilibrium and that policies approximating strict inflation forecast targeting are likely to have undesirable properties we also show that economies with more general forecast based policy rules are particularly susceptible to indeterminacy of rational expectations equilibria we conclude that although private sector forecasts may contain information useful to the central bank ultimately the monetary authorities must rely on an explicit structural model of the economy to guide their policy decisions this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

inflation determination with taylor rules is new keynesian analysis critically flawed abstract cochrane 2007 has strongly questioned the basic economic logic of current monetary policy analysis arguing that new keynesian nk models imply rational expectations paths with explosive inflation that do not imply explosions in real variables relevant for transversality conditions consequently the usual logic does not rule out solutions with explosive inflation that result does not however justify negative conclusions about nk analysis for a different criterion is logically satisfactory it is that to be plausible a re solution must satisfy the property of least squares learnability adoption of this criterion serves to justify in principle the bulk of current mainstream analysis

joint determination of food consumption and production in rural sierra leone estimates of a household firm model abstract this paper investigates the determination of food consumption for rural households in sierra leone that produce the foods which they consume a household firm model is estimated with seven commodities including five foods non foods and labor as compared to three commodities in past studies such food disaggregation permits tracing of the effects of socioeconomic variables on household nutrient availability household specialization in production is such that censored data is a problem a tobit approach is used to correct for this for most crops the own price effects on consumption remain negative when a price change is allowed to shift the budget constraint by effecting the profits from home production elasticities of calorie availability with respect to toal expenditure are found to be sizeable varying little by expenditure group the price elasticities of calorie availability are generally positive however an important exception occurs for price of the staple food rice this exception has several important policy implications which are explored

peasant household behaviour with missing markets some paradoxes explained a model of peasant household behavior under varying degrees of household specific food and labor market failures is constructed to show that these structural features can explain several well known patterns of peasant response which have often been attributed to peculiar motives presumed specific to peasants the model explains sluggish response to cash crops prices and high instability in perceived food and labor scarcities the key role of manufactured consumer goods prices in stimulating peasants effort in cash crops production the effectiveness of taxation as opposed to incentives in stimulating cash crops production and the key role of technological change in food production to enhance cash crop production results are obtained analytically in the case of one market failure and by numerical simulation with more than one

liquidity traps learning and stagnation we examine global economic dynamics under learning in a new keynesian model in which the interest rate rule is subject to the zero lower bound under normal monetary and fiscal policy the intended steady state is locally but not globally stable large pessimistic shocks to expectations can lead to deflationary spirals with falling prices and falling output to avoid this outcome we recommend augmenting normal policies with aggressive monetary and fiscal policy that guarantee a lower bound on inflation in contrast policies geared toward ensuring an output lower bound are insufficient for avoiding deflationary spirals

interurban house price gradient effect of urban hierarchy distance on house prices this paper applies a general spatial equilibrium model to investigate the effect that distance within the urban hierarchy can have on interurban house prices our spatial model predicts a negative

does the reserve bank of australia follow a forward looking nonlinear monetary policy rule abstractthe conventional monetary policy rule describes a simple linear relationship between the domestic interest rate inflation rate and output gap an important extension to this rule is to inc

accounting for south non south real wage differentials and for changes in those differentials over time a unified accounting framework for analyzing differences in real wages between the south and non south in 1979 and for changes in south non south wage ratios between 1973 and 1979 is outlined cross section analysis of real wage differentials allows two sources of regional wage variation 1 worker and job characteristics and 2 returns to those characteristics our results suggest that differences in the latter may be as important in accounting for regional wage differentials as the former an interactive specification permits decomposition of changes in regional wage ratios into direct effects of changes in characteristics and indirect effects of region year and region year variations in returns more than half the predicted changes in south non south wage ratios can be accounted for by changing relative returns to characteristics between the south and non south

identifying productivity and amenity effects in interurban wage differentials this study focuses on the relative importance of amenity and productivity differences in determining wage differentials across urban areas the approach developed takes advantage of the connection between land and labor market clearing conditions required for locational equilibrium of households and firms data on recent movers are used to estimate equilibrium wages and rents for a sample of metropolitan areas this information is then used to identify amenity and productivity components of wages for each city in the sample using national estimates of the relative share of land in consumption and production differences in productivity and amenities are found to be roughly equal sources of wage variation across the sample

another weakness of determinacy as a selection criterion for rational expectations models abstract this paper argues against determinacy as a guide to interpret rational expectations solutions using an example in which a determinate solution exists but differs sharply in dynamic behavior from that implied by the model considered on a sector by sector basis

fiscal policy in an expectations driven liquidity trap we study the effects of fiscal policy interventions in a liquidity trap in a model with nominal rigidities and an interest rate rule in a liquidity trap caused by a self fulfilling state of low confidence higher government spending has deflationary effects that reduce the spending multiplier when the zero lower bound is binding instead cuts in marginal labor tax rates are inflationary and become more expansionary when the zero lower bound is binding these findings contradict popular views about the effects of fiscal policy in a liquidity trap

learning about fiscal policy and the effects of policy uncertainty abstract in this paper we ask how uncertainty about fiscal policy affects the impact of fiscal policy changes on the economy when the government tries to counteract a deep recession the agents in our model are uncertain about the conduct of fiscal policy and act as econometricians by estimating fiscal policy rules that might change over time we find that assuming that agents are not instantaneously aware of the new fiscal policy regime in place leads to substantially more volatility in the short run and persistent differences in average outcomes we highlight issues that can arise when a policymaker wants to announce a policy change from a methodological perspective we introduce a novel way to model learning in the face of discrete policy changes

do real balance effects invalidate the taylor principle in closed and open economies this paper examines the determinacy implications of forecast based monetary policy rules that set the interest rate in response to expected future inflation in a neo wicksellian model that incorporates real balance effects we show that the presence of such effects in closed economies restricts the ability of the taylor principle to prevent indeterminacy of the rational expectations equilibrium the problem is exacerbated in open economies particularly if the policy rule reacts to consumer price rather than domestic price inflation however determinacy can be restored in both closed and open economies with the addition of monetary policy inertia

welfare consequences of food prices increases evidence from rural mexico this paper presents an analysis of the welfare consequences of recent increases in food prices in mexico using micro level data we estimate a quaids model of demand for food using data collected to evaluate the conditional cash transfer program oportunidades we show how the poor have been affected by the recent increases and changes in relative prices of foods we also show how a conditional cash transfer program provides a means of alleviating the problem of increasing staple prices and simulate the impact of such a policy on household welfare and consumer demand we contrast this policy with alternative policy responses such as price subsidies which distort relative prices and are less well targeted

food price changes and household welfare what do we learn from two different approaches the use of a marginal approach can significantly distort the predicted effects of large price variations on monetary welfare over the medium to longer term this paper aims at shedding some light

the taylor rule and optimal monetary policy where it denotes the fed s operating target for the federal funds rate pt is the inflation rate measured by the gdp deflator yt is the log of real gdp and y t is the log of potential output identified empirically with a linear trend the rule has since been subject to considerable attention both as an account of actual policy in the united states and elsewhere and as a prescription for desirable policy taylor argues for the rule s normative significance both on the basis of simulations and on the ground that it describes u s policy in a period in which monetary policy is widely judged to have been unusually successful taylor 1999 suggesting that the rule is worth adopting as a principle of behavior here i wish to consider to what extent this prescription resembles the sort of policy that economic theory would recommend i consider the question in the context of a simple but widely used optimizing model of the monetary transmission mechanism which allows one to reach clear conclusions about economic welfare the model is highly stylized but incorporates important features of more realistic models and allows me to make several points that are of more general validity out of concern for the robustness of the conclusions reached the analysis here addresses only broad qualitative features of the taylor rule and attempts to identify features of a desirable policy rule that are likely to hold under a variety of model specifications

amenities and regional differences in returns to worker characteristics average wages in regions in the united states vary considerably in trying to explain these differences in the average wage across regions a number of studies have found that differences in the returns to characteristics of workers such as years of schooling are as important as differences in the skill composition of the labor force 4 6 10 141 these differences in returns are generally interpreted as reflecting regional differences in demand for worker characteristics coupled with barriers to factor mobility this interpretation is based on the argument that the presence of at least one perfectly mobile factor with perfect information will cause spatial convergence in characteristic prices as that particular factor exploits any spatial price differential 4 p 2161 this paper suggests an alternative to this demand based explanation for regional differences in the structure of wages one based on regional differences in the supply of worker characteristics this explanation does not rely on impediments to the movement of workers or firms and is consistent with an equilibrium view of wages in which regional wage differentials are viewed as compensation for local amenities the theoretical model presented in the following section assumes capital and labor are perfectly mobile with perfect information implying that in equilibrium the utility of workers with similar characteristics is the same in all locations this convergence of utility however does not necessarily imply convergence of characteristic prices equilibrium differences in the returns to a specific worker characteristic can exist if worker characteristics affect an individual s valuation of an area s amenities relative to the individual s demand for land

regime switches agents beliefs and post world war ii u s macroeconomic dynamics the evolution of inflation and output over the last 50 years is examined through the lens of a micro founded model that allows for changes in the behavior of the federal reserve and in the volatility of structural shocks agents are aware of the possibility of regime changes and their beliefs have an impact on the law of motion underlying the macroeconomy the results support the view that there were regime switches in the conduct of monetary policy however the behavior of the federal reserve is identified by repeated fluctuations between a hawk and a dove regime instead of by the traditional pre and post volcker structure counterfactual simulations show that if agents had anticipated the appointment of an extremely conservative chairman inflation would not have reached the peaks of the late 70s and the inflation output trade off would have been less severe these beliefs counterfactuals are new in the literature finally the paper provides a bayesian algorithm to handle the technical difficulties that arise in a rational expectations model with markov switching regimes

monetary policy and asset prices with belief driven fluctuations abstract we present a heterogeneous agents new keynesian model subject to a cost channel of monetary policy transmission constant turnover between long time traders and newcomers in market activities combined with restricted trading opportunities introduces a feedback from the stock market to real activity making stock prices non redundant for the business cycle we show that strict inflation targeting can lead to equilibrium indeterminacy even if the policy rule satisfies the taylor principle a belief driven shock to stock price generates relative volatilities of key financial variables which are very close to what is observed in u s data this result hints to the possibility that the financial instability witnessed since the mid to late 1990s was the result of waves of rational exuberance and pessimism in financial markets our analysis suggests that a mild response to stock prices in the central bank s policy rule can restore equilibrium determinacy and therefore rule out non fundamental volatility

consumption habits in a new keynesian business cycle model consumption habits have become an integral component in new keynesian models however consumption habits can be modeled in a host of different ways and this diversity is reflected in the literature i examine whether different approaches to modeling consumption habits have important implications for business cycle behavior using a standard new keynesian business cycle model i show that to a first order log approximation the consumption euler equation associated with the additive functional form for habit formation encompasses the multiplicative function form empirically i show that whether consumption habits are internal or external has little effect on the model s business cycle characteristics

multiple input multiple output production choices and technology in the u s wheat region duality theory motivates a translog expected profit function consistent with multiple products price uncertainty preseason climate constraints acreage control policies and possibly nonhomothetic technology although multiple outputs are allowed enterprise specific data is not necessary instead time series measures of output revenues and expected prices input expenses and prices and fixed input flows are employed appropriate measures of elasticities of choice returns to size and biases in technological change are derived results indicated decreasing returns to size rather limited though complementary responsiveness of choices to price changes and the nature of biases in technological changes

interest rate control and nonconvergence to rational expectations this paper investigates the feasibility of a monetary policy aimed at pegging the nominal rate of interest it shows that under general conditions such a policy would produce the well known cumulative process despite the fact that there exists a well behaved rational expectations equilibrium with no tendency for inflation to accelerate or decelerate the cumulative process shows up as the failure of learning to converge to rational expectations specifically the paper shows first in a conventional is lm model with an expectations augmented phillips curve and then in a micro based finance constraint model that if people follow any learning rule based on experience that satisfies a weak condition then the sequence of temporary equilibria under a policy of interest pegging cannot converge the nonconvergent path that will be observed accords with the familiar cumulative process in that inflation accelerates if the market rate of interest has been pegged below the natural rate

the lucas critique policy invariance and multiple equilibria the lucas critique of econometric policy evaluation argues that the parameters of econometric models are subject to theoretical cross equation restrictions which follow from the fact that the endogenous variables of the models are chosen optimally by forward looking agents in this paper i argue that these facts alone are insufficient to generate such restrictions i present an example of a model in which there exist multiple stationary rational expectations equilibria one of which is supported by a process invariant forecast rule immunity to the lucas critique is proposed as a selection criterion in models with multiple equilibria

monetary policy indeterminacy and learning abstract forward looking monetary models with taylor type interest rate rules are known to generate indeterminacies with a potential dependence on extraneous sunspots for some structural and policy parameters we investigate the stability of these solutions under adaptive learning focusing on common factor or resonance frequency representations in which the observed sunspot has a suitable time series structure we consider specifications incorporating both lagged and expected inflation in the phillips curve and both expected and inertial elements in the policy rule we find that some policy rules can indeed lead to learnable sunspot solutions and we investigate the conditions under which this phenomenon arises

food insecurity in vulnerable populations coping with food price shocks in afghanistan we use the case of afghanistan during the 2007 08 food price crisis to illustrate the impact of staple food price increases on household food security using the unconditional quantile regression estimator to identify separate effects for households across the distribution we find evidence of divergent behavior the most vulnerable households with low calorie diets cannot afford to make substantial cuts to caloric intake since they are close to or below the minimum daily energy requirements accordingly we find no decline in per capita daily caloric intake as a result of the price increases such households may be sacrificing diet quality to maintain calories with a potential for serious and long term health consequences households with high calorie diets who can afford to cut back on calories experience the largest declines we find evidence of declines in dietary diversity across the entire distribution of households with slightly larger declines observed for those with the least diversity moving beyond the price responses for the average household can inform policy makers of how the most vulnerable groups are affected such information is particularly salient in a country like afghanistan where decades of war political instability and recurring droughts have led to a precarious state of food insecurity and poverty

housing productivity and the social cost of land use restrictions abstract we use metro level variation in land and structural input prices to test and estimate a housing cost function with differences in local housing productivity both ols and iv estimates imply that stringent regulatory and geographic restrictions substantially increase housing prices relative to land and construction input costs the typical cost share of land is one third and substitution between inputs is inelastic a disaggregated analysis of regulations finds state level restrictions are costlier than local ones and provides a regulatory cost index rci housing productivity falls with city population typical land use restrictions impose costs that appear to exceed quality of life benefits reducing welfare on net

modeling farm households price responses in the presence of transaction costs and heterogeneity in labor markets we develop a farm household model to analyze price responses of farm households this model incorporates various types of transaction costs as well as labor heterogeneity nonproportional variable transaction costs or labor heterogeneity imply that production and consumption decisions become nonseparable even when the household buys or sells labor an empirical model is estimated using data from midwest poland the results show that nonproportional variable transaction costs and labor heterogeneity significantly influence household behavior not all price elasticities however change significantly if these are neglected

the consequences of an unknown debt target abstract several proposals to reduce u s debt reveal large differences in their targets we examine how an unknown debt target affects economic activity using a real business cycle model in which bayesian households learn about a state dependent debt target in an endogenous tax rule recent papers use stochastic volatility shocks to study fiscal uncertainty in our setup the fiscal rule is time varying due to unknown changes in the debt target households infer the current debt target from a noisy tax rule and jointly estimate the transition probabilities three key findings emerge from our analysis 1 limited information about the debt target amplifies the effect of tax shocks through changes in expected tax rates 2 the welfare losses are an order of magnitude larger when both the debt target state and transition matrix are unknown than when only the debt target state is unknown to households 3 an unknown debt target likely reduced the stimulative effect of the arra and uncertainty about the sunset provision in the bush tax cuts may have slowed the recovery and led to welfare losses

are we overestimating the negative impact of higher food prices evidence from ghana most studies of the welfare impact of higher food prices adopt deaton s approach based on the first order effect of prices changes using income and expenditure survey data this paper explores the impact of higher maize and food prices in ghana and considers the sensitivity of results to changes in several assumptions if second order effects are included incorporating household response to price changes the welfare impact of food price increases is more positive but only modestly so however if we assume that marketing margins are constant in real terms rather than proportional to prices the welfare impact is substantially more positive these findings highlight the need for more research on the behavior of marketing margins under volatile prices

learning and the great moderation we study a stylized theory of the volatility reduction in the u s after 1984 the great moderation which attributes part of the stabilization to less volatile shocks and another part to more difficult inference on the part of bayesian households attempting to learn the latent state of the economy we use a standard equilibrium business cycle model with technology following an unobserved regime switching process after 1984 according to kim and nelson 1999a the variance of u s macroeconomic aggregates declined because boom and recession regimes moved closer together keeping conditional variance unchanged in our model this makes the signal extraction problem more difficult for bayesian households and in response they moderate their behavior reinforcing the effect of the less volatile stochastic technology and contributing an extra measure of moderation to the economy we construct example economies in which this learning effect accounts for about 30 of a volatility reduction of the magnitude observed in the postwar u s data

rice prices and income distribution in thailand a non parametric analysis rice is a staple crop in thailand significantly entering both household production and consumption this paper examines the effect of rice prices on the distribution of real income across households taking into account household characteristics and geographical location the data set is a large scale survey of 11 893 households simple nonparametric techniques for regression and density estimation are used these methods depend on few assumptions and generate flexible graphical results that are directly informative about the problem at hand the main results are that higher rice prices should benefit all rural households but the largest benefits accrue to rural households in the middle of the income distribution copyright 1989 by royal economic society

farmers welfare and changing food prices nonparametric evidence from rice in madagascar this paper uses nonparametric density estimation and kernel smoothing techniques to examine the instantaneous distributional implications of rice price changes in madagascar while many farmers do not participate in product markets as either buyers or sellers and net sales or marketable surplus are fairly small for many others the roughly one third of rice farmers who fall below the poverty line face significant negative first order welfare effects from increases in the mean or variance of rice prices conversely the first order gains from rice price increases are highly concentrated among the largest rice farmers and particular regions in madagascar

egypt s multiproduct agricultural technology and agricultural policy based on the hypothesis that egyptian farmers maximise economic profits the multiproduct translog profit function is used to estimate input demand and output supply functions for corn rice and cotton crops grown in egypt s nile delta elasticity estimates indicate a generally high degree of price responsiveness the estimates are used to evaluate egyptian agricultural policies concerning labour mechanisation and output prices the results show that egypt s agricultural policies of taxing output and subsidising certain inputs have hada substantial negative impact on agricultural productivity

output persistence from monetary shocks with staggered prices or wages under a taylor rule we analytically examine output persistence from monetary shocks in a dsge model with staggered prices or wages under a taylor rule surprisingly while taylor style staggering never yields persistence calvo style staggering of wages does generate persistence under decreasing returns to labour c 2009 elsevier b v all rights reserved

compensating differences and interregional wage differentials interregional differences in average wages and earnings have been observed particularly in the north and south of the united states ever since the mid 1800s that observation has motivated several empirical attempts to determine the source of those differentials measured both in nominal and real terms and to explain why they have been maintained over time the general conclusion reached by the overwhelming majority of these studies is that the labor market has not eliminated these wage differentials even in the face of substantial interregional migration this result has at least two alternative interpretations first it would appear to contradict the theory of compensating differences as applied to the labor market thaler and rosen 1975 which stresses that under the assumptions of perfect information free geographic and intersectoral labor mobility and homogeneous consumer tastes the nominal wage rates of workers who have similar human capital characteristics live and work in similar environments and experience similar living costs are driven to equality second this result may only reflect an aggregation error in other words there may be several types of labor that are each paid different equilibrium wage rates and comprise different percentages of the workforce in each region even if the real wage paid to each class of workers is interregionally invariant a situation that instead would support the theory of compensating differences failure to distinguish accurately between labor types could produce the illusion of a wage differential this paper considers the two alternative interpretations given above as to why interregional wage differentials might exist hedonic real wage equations are estimated for four regions of the united states using observations on individual household heads drawn from the 1976 panel study in income dynamics psid this sample is of interest because the 1976 psid data contain unusually detailed measures of education work experience and occupation as well as information on workplace and job characteristics thus a more complete specification of the wage equation is permitted and the possibility of aggregation error is reduced particularly in comparison with other interregional wage differential studies several of these studies for example have been based on aggregate data from the census of manufactures fuchs and perlman 1960 gallaway 1963 scully 1969 and coelho and ghali 1971 which provide no direct measurements on the human capital of workers the remainder of the discussion is organized into three sections section ii specifies the wage equation and describes the psid data section iii then reports empirical results which are consistent with the findings based on aggregate data of bellante 1979 and coelho and ghali 1971 in that they support the theory of compensating differences more specifically for full time workers the rewards to attributes relevant in determining real wages apparently are interregionally invariant however because this result conflicts with most previous research on interregional wage differentials based on aggregate data and virtually all such research based on microdata welch 1966 hanoch 1967 hanushek 1973 1981 hirsch 1978 and sahling and smith 1983 a number of empirical comparisons are made between the present study and the approaches taken by other investigators conclusions and implications are drawn out in section iv

evolving macroeconomic dynamics in a small open economy an estimated markov switching dsge model for the uk this paper investigates the possibility of shifts in the uk economy using a markov switching open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model we find overwhelming evidence to reject the hypothesis that the deep structural parameters of the underlying structural model had stayed constant throughout the sample period and there is significant changes to the volatility of the structural shocks counterfactual experiments based on the model with the best empirical fit indicate that the change in the policy rule as well as changes to the volatility of the structural shocks over the sample period are crucial features in explaining uk s macroeconomic performance

shadow wages and peasant family labour supply an econometric application to the peruvian sierra a striking feature of developing economies is the large proportion of the work force that is self employed lack of widespread labor market participation in the agricultural sector can pose a major obstacle to the empirical implementation of economic models of the peasant household whether because wage data are simply not available or because the assumptions required to make use of wage data stretch the bounds of credulity this paper develops a methodology for estimating a structural labor supply model for primarily self employed peasant households which holds under a general agricultural technology and set of labor market conditions the unique feature of the approach is that the opportunity cost of time or shadow wage of household workers is explicitly estimated from an agricultural production function and is subsequently used to identify a set of structural labor supply parameters recent household survey data from rural peru is employed to estimate and perform various diagnostic tests on the model the empirical findings lend support to the hypothesis that peasant households allocate their members time as if to maximize a family utility function and moreover demonstrate the tractability of the shadow wage methodology and its usefulness in estimating more elaborate time allocation models

rising food prices and undernourishment a cross country inquiry households welfare in developing countries has been hit by dramatic food prices increases which occurred between 2005 and 2008 in this paper we adopt a partial equilibrium approach to analyze the short time effects of a staple food price increase on nutritional attainments as a measure of welfare the analysis consists of first approximating complete food demand systems and then performing household level micro simulations instead of focusing on a single country profile we provide a more complete snapshot by comparing the evidence through a cross country assessment made possible by the use of nationally representative household surveys comparability is assured by the adoption of the same methodological choices in the treatment of the micro data we find that food price spikes not only reduce the mean consumption of dietary energy but also worsen the distribution of food calories further deteriorating the nutritional status of populations we also discovered that access to agricultural land plays a significant role in ensuring adequate nutritional attainments in rural areas and surprisingly even in urban areas

implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low income countries in many poor countries the recent increases in prices of staple foods raise the real incomes of those selling food many of whom are relatively poor while hurting net food consumers many of whom are also relatively poor the impacts on poverty will certainly be very diverse but the average impact on poverty depends upon the balance between these two effects and can only be determined by looking at real world data results using household data for ten observations on nine low income countries show that the short run impacts of higher staple food prices on poverty differ considerably by commodity and by country but that poverty increases are much more frequent and larger than poverty reductions the recent large increases in food prices appear likely to raise overall poverty in low income countries substantially

public infrastructure investments productivity and welfare in fixed geographic areas abstract measures of the value of public investments are critical inputs into the policy process and aggregate production and cost functions have become the dominant methods of evaluating these benefits this paper examines the limitations of these approaches in light of applied production and spatial equilibrium theories a spatial equilibrium model of an economy with nontraded localized public goods like infrastructure is proposed and a method for identifying the role of public capital in firm production and household preferences is derived empirical evidence from a sample of large us cities suggests that public capital provides significant marginal benefits but the marginal productivity of public capital is low and aggregate city willingness to pay for large increases in public capital is less than their cost the paper concludes with a brief discussion of the political economy of urban infrastructure investment