learning to believe in sunspots a number of authors have shown that competitive economies may possess sunspot equilibria that is rational expectations equilibria in which purely extrinsic uncertainty affects equilibrium prices and allocations 2 such results demonstrate that it does not require a lack of faith in the rationality of market participants to believe that competitive markets may be subject to purely speculative fluctuations driven solely by expectations 3 the mere existence of sunspot equilibria as solutions to a system of marketclearing conditions however might not be judged sufficient to indicate that competitive markets with rational participants could ever be subject to speculative instability the sunspot equilibria represent states of affairs in which agents act differently in the case of different realizations of the sunspot variable and it is rational for each agent to do so but it might be thought unlikely that the beliefs of all the participants in the market could ever come to be coordinated so as to bring about an equilibrium of that kind it is rational to believe that sunspots convey information about future states of affairs once the economy is in a sunspot equilibrium but why would rational agents ever begin to believe in such a thing so as to create the conditions under which the belief is rational in order to address such a question one must go beyond the mere statement of the conditions for equilibrium and discussion of what states of affairs satisfy them one must specify an explicit dynamic process according to which the beliefs of agents adjust when out of equilibrium any exercise of this kind is necessarily unsatisfactory as there is no univocal meaning for the postulate of rational behavior outside of an equilibrium it may well be the case that

the stochastic convergence of co2 emissions a long memory approach in response to equity concerns surrounding the spatial distribution of co2 emissions and assumptions of co2 convergence within some climate models this paper examines the convergence of co2 emissions within the oecd over the period 1870 2004 more specifically using the local whittle estimator and its variants we examine whether relative per capita co2 emissions are fractionally integrated that is they are long memory processes which although highly persistant may revert to the mean trend in the long run our results suggest that co2 emissions within 13 out of 18 oecd countries are indeed fractionally integrated implying that they converge over time albeit slowly interestingly though the countries whose emissions are not found to be fractionally integrated are some of the highest polluters within the oecd at least in per capita terms our results have implications both for future studies of co2 convergence and for climate policy

stochastic convergence in per capita fossil fuel consumption in u s states abstract this study examines the stochastic convergence of per capita fossil fuel consumption across u s states including the district of columbia utilizing lm and rals lm unit root tests with allowance for endogenously determined structural breaks our results indicate that with the exception of nevada the evidence from two break and one break lm and rals lm unit root tests rejects the null hypothesis of a unit root in the relative per capita fossil fuel consumption in the u s this finding indicates the presence of stochastic convergence in relative per capita fossil fuel consumption in the u s states

land consumption and income in italy a case of inverted ekc abstract the ekc hypothesis postulates that the relationship between economic growth and environmental deterioration is represented by an inverted u shaped function its validity has been questioned from several perspectives and a need for public policies has been expressed this paper uses a heuristic approach to analyze the relationship between per capita income and land consumption as proxied by the number of building permits issued by public authorities using data from the italian regions we run a panel data regression model to test whether the ekc hypothesis holds results confute it evidencing a u shaped relationship in the authors opinion the combined effect of market conditions lifestyle evolution and institutional and political factors have produced an adverse effect on environment on this basis the paper claims that when social and intergenerational aspects are involved a balanced mix of market policies and institutional architecture is needed

growth and environmental quality testing the double convergence hypothesis abstract this paper discusses the double convergence hypothesis dch that the uncritical analysis of the so called environmental kuznets curve ekc implicitly implies according to the ekc empirical evidence would support the hypothesis that economic growth through a deterministic sequence of phases would produce cross country convergence in per capita output and as a by product convergence in the demand for environmental quality however factual analysis seems to reject the general hypothesis of convergence in per capita output limiting the validity of such an assessment to the case of homogeneous groups of countries this is why to test the dch the paper focuses on the original group of oecd countries for which the economic convergence turned out to be true this allows us to verify whether green and convergence follows as a consequence of economic convergence the paper also tests for a more equitable distribution of protection policies among countries unlike other studies which do not make the dch explicit and have focused on pollutant emissions this research explicitly tests for the double convergence using as a proxy for the demand for environmental quality the territory set aside for protected areas the results confirm that for the selected homogenous group of countries growth has accompanied the demand for environmental quality this happens both in terms of conditional and stochastic convergence

conditional convergence in australia s energy consumption at the sector level abstract we examine the convergence of energy consumption per capita at the sector level in australia over the period 1973 74 to 2013 14 to do so we employ recently developed lm and rals lm unit root tests that accommodate up to two endogenously determined structural breaks we find support for energy consumption per capita convergence for six of seven sectors in australia

the effect of unions on the structure of wages a longitudinal analysis this paper studies the effects of unions on the structure of wages using an estimation technique that explicitly accounts for misclassification errors in reported union status and potential correlations between union status and unobserved productivity the econometric model is estimated separately for five skill groups using a large panel data set formed from the u s current population survey the results suggest that unions raise wages more for workers with lower levels of observed skills in addition the patterns of selection bias differ by skill group among workers with lower levels of observed skill unionized workers are positively selected whereas union workers are negatively selected from among those with higher levels of observed skill despite a large and sophisticated literature there is still substantial disagreement over the extent to which differences in the structure of wages between union and nonunion workers represent an effect of trade unions rather than a consequence of the nonrandom selection of unionized workers over the past decade several alternative approaches have been developed to control for unobserved heterogeneity between union and nonunion workers 2 one method that has been successfully applied in other areas of applied microeconometrics is the use of longitudinal data to measure the wage gains or losses of workers who change union status unfortunately longitudinal estimators are highly sensitive to measurement error even a small fraction of misclassified union status changes can lead to significant biases if the true rate of mobility between union and nonunion jobs is low this sensitivity led lewis 1986 to essentially dismiss the longitudinal evidence in his landmark survey of union wage effects in this paper i present some new evidence on the union wage effect based on a longitudinal estimator that explicitly accounts for misclassification errors in reported union status the estimator uses external information on union status misclassification rates along with the reduced form coefficients from a multi variate regression of wages on the observed sequence of union status indicators to isolate the causal effect of unions from any selection biases introduced by a correlation between union status and the permanent component of unobserved wage heterogeneity recognizing that unions may raise wages more or less for

gaidar s reforms truth and fiction the article by v mau is devoted to long term challenges in the development of russia in terms of e gaidar s scientific heritage it presents a methodological approach to the analysis of the country s development consider the economic policy and economic reforms of the 1990 s in the article by a nechaev the myths and realities of the reforms shock therapy are examined the role of gaidar who saved the country from the bloody drama is traced a aganbegyan pays special attention to the scientific heritage of e gaidar considering him worthy of the title of academician s dubinin distinguishes leadership abilities of gaidar allowed him to become the head of complex transformations which have no analogues in the world

are shocks to ecological footprint in oecd countries permanent or temporary abstract the main goal of this study is to check the unit root properties of the ecological footprint and its six subcomponents cropland footprint grazing land footprint fishing grounds footprint forest land footprint built up land footprint and carbon footprint in 25 oecd the organisation for economic co operation and development countries during the period 1961 2013 this study uses a new stationarity test with sharp and smooth breaks in the panel setting developed by bahmani oskooee et al 2014 empirical findings demonstrate that the fishing grounds footprint does not have mean reverting behavior while the remaining ecological indicators display stationary properties under the assumption of both homogenous and heterogeneous long run variance therefore if policymakers decide to decrease the size of the fishing grounds footprint they will not face stiff resistance in addition to the panel results the univariate stationarity test results can also help policymakers in each country design effective emission reduction policies

the economics of worldwide stagflation the last fifteen years have witnessed dramatic changes in economics not only in the manner in which the economics profession views economics but also in the manner in which the general public views economics and economists by the late 1960 s there had emerged more or less a consensus macroeconomic framework that is an agreed upon structure to be used to study economic problems at the aggregate level robert solow stated as quoted in leijonhufvud 1968

stability of cycles and expectations the actual dynamics of an economy depends on how agents forecast the future at every date as a function of their information on the past while possibly learning the structure of their environment we show in the case of a one dimensional state variable that under mild conditions on expectations functions a given cycle with perfect foresight that is stable in the actual dynamics is stable in a fictitious backward perfect foresight dynamics we exhibit a restricted class of expectations functions for which the converse is true

stochastic divergence or convergence of per capita carbon dioxide emissions re examining the evidence this paper revisits the time series literature on the convergence of per capita carbon dioxide co2 emissions and examines the robustness of previous results using a sample of oecd countries for the period 1950 2002 we employ a battery of stationarity and unit root tests including those that allow for cross sectional dependencies within the panel we also correct for inaccuracies in previous studies that could result in a trend stationary series being labelled as converging even if it were actually diverging from the international average the body of evidence provided by our analysis suggests that per capita co2 emissions have not converged among oecd countries during the period under consideration this finding is of importance to both climate change policy makers and to those who construct climate change models

wages profits and capital intensity evidence from matched worker firm data swedish data on workers matched with firms balance sheet reports are used to examine the relation between wages and firms ability to pay results indicate that experienced and highly educated workers are sorted into profitable firms wages are positively correlated with profits and the capital labor ratio after controlling for worker quality degree of effort supervision job characteristics local unemployment firms employment history and employer size lester s range of pay due to rent sharing is around 12 24 of the mean wage in sweden which is close to the estimates for the united states and united kingdom

competition in regional environmental policies when plant locations are endogenous abstract a two region model is presented in which an imperfectly competitive firm produces a good with increasing returns at the plant level production of the good causes local pollution the firm decides whether to maintain plants in both regions serve both regions from a single plant or shut down if the disutility of pollution is high enough the two regions will compete by increasing their environmental taxes standards until the polluting firm is driven from the market alternatively if the disutility from pollution is not as great the regions will usually compete by undercutting each other s pollution tax rates

convergence in per capita energy use among oecd countries abstract unlike previous studies which mainly focus on the integration properties of energy consumption and production this study examines the convergence of per capita energy use among 25 oecd countries over the period 1960 to 2010 in particular newly developed lm and rals lm unit root tests with allowance for two endogenously determined structural breaks are employed the results indicate significant support for per capita energy use convergence among oecd countries

club convergence in carbon dioxide emissions we examine convergence in carbon dioxide emissions among 128 countries for the period 1960 2003 by means of a new methodology introduced by phillips and sul econometrica 75 6 1771 1855 2007a contrary to previous studies our approach allows us to examine for evidence of club convergence i e identify groups of countries that converge to different equilibria our results suggest convergence in per capita co2 emissions among all the countries under scrutiny in the early years of our sample however there seem to be two separate convergence clubs in the recent era that converge to different steady states interestingly we also find evidence of transitioning between the two convergence clubs suggesting either a slow convergence between the two clubs or a tendency for some countries to move from one convergence club to the other

are workers paid their marginal products status is like coase s social costs a reciprocal phenomenon given that one person s gain in status can occur only at the expense of a loss in status for others and that workers are free to choose their coworkers it follows that the competitive wage structure within a firm must be one in which individual wage differences understate individual differences in marginal products the purpose of this paper is to examine a variety of empirical evidence that relates to this proposition about the firm s internal wage structure the paper is organized as follows section i briefly summarizes the theoretical considerations that govern competitive wage determination when status matters to people and firms are viewed as voluntary associations of workers section ii then confronts the predictions of section i by examining pay and productivity schedules for a group of sales occupations for which these schedules are relatively easily observed section ii also examines the relationship between wages and productivity for a sample of university professors an occupation in which individual productivity differences are for a variety of obvious reasons relatively more difficult to measure all of the evidence examined is consistent with the hypothesis that within firms wage rates vary substantially less than do individual productivity values section iii discusses additional observations and evidence that bear on this same hypothesis it suggests that the implicit market for status may strongly influence the ways in which firms are organized to carry out the tasks they perform section iv concludes by considering the claim that egalitarian internal wage structures arise because of equity considerations it argues that the concept of equity appears very closely linked to the concept of status and suggests a strategy for assigning monetaty value to the equity considerations that so often dominate public policy decisions

robust inference concerning recent trends in us environmental quality understanding trends in environmental quality is important for individuals and policymakers typically trends in environmental quality are determined solely through comparisons of unconditional or conditional mean pollution levels however reaching unambiguous conclusions on the basis of only the first moment of the unconditional or conditional distribution is problematic since it ignores what is occurring in different regions of the distribution even relying on indices that incorporate both mean and variance is suspect to the extent that relative rankings are not typically robust to index choice addressing these concerns we adapt recent developments in the stochastic dominance literature to test for unambiguous relations between current and past distributions of toxic releases using epa data from 1988 1999 we find statistically significant evidence that the unconditional 1999 distributions of air land underground and total toxic releases dominate in a first degree sense their respective 1988 distributions while some of this improvement is explained by economic growth pollution net of income improved over the sample period as well finally we document robust differences in the distribution of pollution across regions in the us copyright 2004 john wiley sons ltd

differential payments within a bidder coalition and the shapley value bidder coalitions at english auctions frequently distribute collusive gains among members via a secondary auction or knockout when coalition members are sufficiently heterogeneous nested coalition structures are observed in which a knockout is conducted at each level of nesting the nested knockout s characteristics are investigated within many settings we find that the expected payments to coalition members via the nested knockout equal the shapley value incentive compatibility problems of the nested knockout are also analyzed

testing for convergence in carbon dioxide emissions using a bayesian robust structural model we address international convergence in carbon dioxide emissions per capita and per value added derived from emission inventories based on production and consumption patterns we propose a bayesian structural model that accounts for heteroscedasticity and endogeneity between emissions and economic growth and tests for the existence of group specific convergence via shrinkage priors we find evidence for country specific conditional convergence in all emission inventories implying a half life of 2 7 3 1 years for production based emissions and 3 6 4 7 years for consumption based emissions when testing for global convergence without allowing for individual specific convergence paths the half life of hbox co 2 per capita increases to 15 26 years whereas emission intensities show a half life of 44 45 years our results highlight the current incompatibility between emission targets and economic growth and the need for faster diffusion of green technologies moreover there is no evidence for specific convergence dynamics in the european union the oecd or the countries that are subject to binding emission constraints specified in the kyoto protocol the institutional frameworks implemented in industrialized countries did not induce faster convergence among developed economies

selection criteria for models with non uniqueness abstract three objections are considered to the use of mccallum s rules for picking the minimal state set solution in rational expectations models with multiple equilibria it is shown that these difficulties can be resolved using the concept of expectational stability as a selection criterion

a club convergence analysis of per capita energy consumption across australian regions and sectors we examine convergence in per capita energy consumption across nine sectors and seven states and territories in australia over the period 19902016 using the phillips sul club convergence approach we find evidence of multiple convergence clubs for aggregate energy consumption per capita and for energy consumption per capita in eight of the nine sectors with full club convergence in the case of electricity the presence of multiple equilibria for most sectors reflect that states with similar features in terms of climate economic activities and population size among others tend to exhibit similar energy consumption patterns our results highlight the need to tailor policies designed to reduce energy consumption in specific sectors to the consumption convergence paths unique to particular clusters of states

stoking the fires co2 emissions and economic growth abstract we examine the relationship between economic development and carbon dioxide emissions a greenhouse gas central to global warming predictions estimates derived from global panel data suggest a diminishing marginal propensity to emit mpe carbon dioxide as gdp per capita rises despite this global carbon dioxide emissions growth will continue at 1 8 percent per annum for the foreseeable future a result that is not sensitive to average output growth instead emissions growth continues because output and population will grow most rapidly in lower income nations with high mpes this latter feature emphasizes the distributional consequences of policies to reduce emissions

wages productivity and work intensity in the great depression we show that u s manufacturing wages during the great depression were importantly determined by forces on firms intensive margins short run changes in work intensity and the longer term influence of potential productivity combined to influence real wage growth by contrast the external effects of unemployment and replacement rates had much less impact empirical work is undertaken against the background of a simple efficient bargaining model that embraces earnings employment hours of work and work intensity

unemployment wage bargaining and capital labour substitution many economists believe that capital accumulation technical progress and labour force expansion have no lasting effect on unemployment this view rests on the empirically doubtful assumption that the elasticity of substitution between labour and capital is equal to unity i e production is cobb douglas using a simple model based on the work of layard nickell and jackman this paper demonstrates that with a lower elasticity of substitution the equilibrium unemployment rate is affected by all of the above factors it considers briefly how capital accumulation may be endogenised and what long run implications this has for unemployment copyright 1999 by oxford university press

the persistence of profit a new empirical interpretation abstract inferences are drawn about the true coefficients which correspond to sample estimates of a persistence of profit model fitted over a large number of firms this is done by generating simulated sampling distributions for the estimators over various distributional assumptions profits seem to be stationary for all firms with an average short run persistence coefficient of 0 59 higher than most previous estimates long run profit rates differ between firms although by less than is suggested by direct observation of variations in mean profit rates calculated over time short run persistence appears to be inversely related to unsystematic variation in profit

per capita carbon dioxide emissions convergence or divergence understanding and considering the distribution of per capita carbon dioxide co2 emissions is important in designing international climate change proposals and incentives for participation i evaluate historic international emissions distributions and forecast future distributions to assess whether per capita emissions have been converging or will converge i find evidence of convergence among 23 member countries of the organisation for economic co operation and development oecd whereas emissions appear to be diverging for an 88 country global sample over 1960 2000 forecasts based on a markov chain transition matrix provide little evidence of future emissions convergence and indicate that emissions may diverge in the near term i also review the shortcomings of environmental kuznets curve regressions and structural models in characterizing future emissions distributions

convergence in carbon dioxide emissions among industrialised countries revisited this paper examines the existence of stochastic and deterministic convergence of carbon dioxide co2 emissions in 23 countries over the period 1960 2002 for that purpose we conduct unit root testing by employing the recently developed panel stationarity test of carrion i silvestre et al carrion i silvestre j l del barrio castro t lopez bazo e 2005 breaking the panels an application to the gdp per capita econometrics journal 8 159 175 which assumes a highly flexible trend function by incorporating an unknown number of structural breaks we accommodate general forms of cross sectional dependence as well as control for finite sample bias through bootstrap methods overall our analysis provides strong evidence supporting both stochastic and deterministic convergence in co2 emissions thus confirming strazicich and list strazicich m c list j a 2003 are co2 emission levels converging among industrial countries environmental and resource economics 24 263 271 and westerlund and basher westerlund j basher s a 2007 testing for convergence in carbon dioxide emissions using a century of panel data environmental and resource economics forthcoming findings of convergence

interjurisdictional capital mobility fiscal externality and a corrective subsidy abstract recent studies emphasize that local property taxation may result in inefficiently small amounts of local public spending this paper shows that the inefficiency can be traced to a fiscal externality when one jurisdiction increases its taxes it causes a flow of capital to other jurisdictions that increases their tax revenues the inefficiency can be corrected with a subsidy that internalizes the externality key empirical parameters determining the magnitude of the externality are identified illustrative calculations indicate that subsidy rates on the order of 40 might be required to achieve efficiency

the persistence of profits a european comparison this paper is concerned with modeling the movements in profits of firms over time at the heart of the emp irical model is a latent variables problem which arises from the fact that entry and imitation do not actually have to occur to have an ef fect on profits a solution to this problem is explored and then emp irical results are presented comparing a sample of firms from the uni ted kingdom france and west germany copyright 1988 by royal economic society

rates of return on capital across the world are they converging this article estimates levels and identifies trends in the profitability of capital in a broad sample of developed developing and post communist transition economies making up over 80 of global output the underlying distributional and efficiency determinants of profitability are considered in the marxian analytical framework for the period of 1995 2007 leading to the great recession our estimates indicate a trend towards convergence of national profit rates largely driven by the convergence of profitability in developing and transition economies during this period the level of profit rates in all groups of countries experienced growth with the global capital weighted rate of profit increasing by approximately 50 the main contributor to this growth in all groups of countries was the increase in average productivity of capital measured by output capital ratio in developed and transition economies the increase in profit shares of national income and the decline in the relative price of capital goods also contributed to profitability growth in the same period for developing countries profit shares and relative prices were relatively stable

convergence of per capita carbon dioxide emissions in the eu legend or reality abstract designing appropriate environmental and energy policies in order to meet the kyoto protocol s carbon dioxide co 2 reduction targets in the european union eu requires a detailed examination and thorough understanding of co 2 emission trends across the eu member states this paper investigates whether co 2 emissions have converged across 22 european countries over the 1971 to 2006 period the bayesian shrinkage estimation method is employed to do this work and the results reveal the following first the hypothesis of absolute convergence in per capita co 2 emissions is supported and a slight upward convergence is observed second the fact that countries differ considerably in both their speed of convergence and volatility in emissions makes it possible to identify different groups of countries third the results with respect to convergence do not vary much once the share of industry in gdp is accounted for in a conditional convergence analysis however a decreasing share of industry in gdp seems to contribute to a decline in per capita emissions these findings may carry important implications for both national and eu environmental policies

the macroeconomics of specificity specific quasi rents arise in a variety of economic relationships and are exposed to opportunism unless fully protected by contract rent appropriation has important macroeconomic consequences resources are underutilized factor markets are segmented production suffers from technological sclerosis job creation and destruction are unbalanced recessions are excessively sharp and expansions run into bottlenecks while depending on the shock expansions may require reinforcement or stabilization recessions should typically be softened in the long run institutions may evolve to alleviate the problem by balancing appropriation technology choice will also be affected with the appropriated factor partially excluding the other from production to reduce appropriation

is there convergence in per capita renewable energy consumption across u s states evidence from lm and rals lm unit root tests with breaks abstract given the federal and state policy initiatives to curb fossil fuel consumption and expand the use of renewable energy sources in the u s this study investigates the convergence properties of per capita renewable energy consumption across u s states including the district of columbia in addition to cross sectional tests of and convergence our study employs lm and rals lm unit root tests with endogenously determined structural breaks to test for stochastic convergence traditional cross sectional tests indicate that both and convergence of per capita renewable energy consumption exists across u s states moreover our results also provides clear support for stochastic convergence of per capita renewable energy consumption for a majority of u s states including the district of columbia once allowance is made for structural breaks

have air pollutant emissions converged among u s regions evidence from unit root tests previous studies of income distribution have found evidence indicating that incomes across u s regions have converged supporting the prediction of the neoclassical growth model a potential shortcoming in these studies is that only one measure of well being is considered a measure of wealth linked to incomes or production this paper examines whether income convergence was accompanied by air pollutant emission convergence results from unit root tests provide some evidence that indicators of environmental quality have converged across u s regions during the 1929 1994 period

stability of equilibria with externalities it is shown that in a class of models with multiple externalities one positive and one negative all stationary equilibria may be locally stable to perturbations in the sense that there exist perfect foresight trajectories leading back to the equilibrium thus scale diseconomies arising for example out of a common resource pool generally overturn the liviatan samuelson result that equilibria are either saddlepoints or sources

real wage determination and rent sharing in collective bargaining agreements the microeconomic forces that influence real wages are not fully understood this paper studies pay determination using data on approximately 600 labour contracts it finds that the real wage is an increasing function of past profitability in the employer s industry and a decreasing function of the level of unemployment in the employer s region these results are consistent with rent sharing theories

convergence of least squares learning in environments with hidden state variables and private information we study the convergence of recursive least squares learning schemes in economic environments in which there is private information the presence of private information leads to the presence of hidden state variables from the viewpoint of particular agents by applying theorems of ljung we extend some of our earlier results to characterize conditions under which a system governed by leastsquares learning will eventually converge to a rational expectations equilibrium we apply insights from the learning results to formulate and compute the equilibrium of a version of townsend s model

eco efficiency and convergence in oecd countries this paper assesses the convergence in eco efficiency of a group of 22 oecd countries over the period 1980 2008 in doing so three air pollutants representing the impact on the environment of economic activities are considered namely carbon dioxide text co 2 nitrogen oxides text no mathrm x and sulphur oxides text so mathrm x furthermore eco efficiency scores at both country and air pollutant specific level are computed using data envelopment analysis techniques then convergence is evaluated using the recent approach by phillips and sul econometrica 75 1771 1855 2007 which tests for the existence of convergence groups first we find that eco efficiency has improved over the period with the exception of text no mathrm x emissions second switzerland is the most eco efficient country followed by some scandinavian economies such as sweden iceland norway and denmark in contrast southern european countries such as portugal spain and greece in addition to hungary turkey canada and the united states are among the worst performers finally we find that both the most eco efficient countries and the worst tend to form clubs of convergence

the rise of mass consumption societies this paper studies mechanisms behind the rise of mass consumption societies the development process depicted follows the flying geese pattern in which a series of industries take off one after another as productivity improves in these industries each consumer good becomes affordable to an increasingly large number of households which constantly expand the range of goods they consume this in turn generates larger markets for consumer goods which leads to further improvement in productivity for such virtuous cycles of productivity gains and expanding markets to occur income distribution should be neither too equal nor too unequal with too much equality the economy stagnates in a poverty trap with too much inequality the development stops prematurely

least squares learning and the stability of equilibria with externalities this paper studies the stability of competitive equilibria in a model of aggregate employment when the representative agent uses a least squares forecasting procedure it is shown that the pareto inferior low employment steady state is always unstable under least squares learning even if it is stable under perfect foresight the high employment steady state is stable under learning if and only if it is saddle point stable under perfect foresight this weakens multiple equilibrium theories of coordination failure that purport to explain persistently high unemployment the pareto superior high employment steady state will be the focal point of individual forecasting

persistence of profitability and competition in emerging markets abstract this paper reports on time series analyses of the persistence of profitability of firms in emerging markets its central result is that there is less persistence in developing than in advanced economies the implications for the intensity of competition in emerging markets are examined

convergence in energy consumption per capita among asean countries abstract we test for convergence in energy consumption per capita among asean countries over the period 1971 to 2011 using the panel kpss stationarity test and panel lagrange multiplier lm unit root test the results for the panel stationarity and unit root tests with structural breaks find support for energy convergence in asean

divergence in state level per capita carbon dioxide emissions this paper addresses the question of whether income convergence is sufficient for per capita carbon dioxide co2 emissions convergence by focusing on a set of advanced economies the u s states i undertake a variety of cross sectional and stochastic convergence tests with two novel measures of 1960 to 1999 state level co2 emissions per capita production pre electricity trade co2 and consumption post electricity trade co2 and with income per capita although incomes continue to converge i find stark divergence in production co2 per capita and no evidence of convergence for consumption co2 per capita forecasts of future distributions show little convergence in emissions

the persistence of shocks to profitability in this study we use data for 1981 through 1994 on a large sample of u s companies to examine the persistence of incremental industry corporate parent and business specific effects on profitability our results indicate that the incremental effects of industry on profitability persist longer than the incremental effects of the corporate parent and of the specific business changes in industry structure have a more persistent impact on profitability than do changes in firm structure

seniority wages and productivity a turbulent decade why does a worker s wage tend to grow with seniority in the firm and what does this have to do with productivity two decades ago neoclassical labor economists thought that the theory of human capital provided a good answer to this question the last decade has however been one of puzzles and doubt at this point few would give an unambiguous answer and much hinges on the answer an attractive feature of human capital theory is that it yields a consistent and coherent explanation for several aspects of the employer employee relationship for example seniority systems layoff policies that vary with skill and the relationship between tenure and turnover can be explained in terms of human capital the fact that these explanations are connected leads however to something like a domino effect doubts about one cast doubt on the others if the human capital explanation for the wage seniority relationship is flawed then human capital explanations for other phenomena may require reevaluation in addition an important body of empirical research is built around the assumption that at any point in time a person s wage indicates the person s productivity included here is the extensive literature on the human capital earnings function as well as work on labor demand market discrimination and compensating differentials that assumption has become controversial in recent years in part because implicit contract theories predict that compensation will be redistributed over the period of the contract if a person s spot wage has little to do with spot productivity but rather is an instrument of a complex insurance or deferred compensation scheme then a reassessment of the empirical research may be necessary

fiscal policy profits and investment this paper evaluates the effects of fiscal policy on investment using a panel of oecd countries we find a sizeable negative effect of public spending and in particular of its wage component on profits and on business investment this result is consistent with different theoretical models in which government employment creates wage pressure for the private sector various types of taxes also have negative effects on profits but interestingly the effects of government spending on investment are larger than those of taxes our results can explain the so called non keynesian i e expansionary effects of fiscal adjustments jel e22 e62

examining trends of criteria air pollutants are the effects of governmental intervention transitory despite its growth in other areas of economics time series econometric methods have not beenwidespread in the area of environmental andresource economics we illustrate one use oftime series methods by examining the time pathof us nitrogen oxide nox emission dataover the period 1900 1994 the analysishighlights that proper time series methods canaid in optimal regulatory policy as well asdeveloping empirical verification of theoriesput forth to explain economic phenomena inaddition several interesting results emerge first we find that the emissions seriescontains both a permanent and random component second if one attributed all of the emissionsreductions to regulatory policy interventionanalysis suggests that the 1970 clean air act caa did not merely have transitory effects but permanently influenced the noxemission path in terms of total regulatoryimpact an upper bound on the emissions saveddue to the 1970 caa is in the range of27 48

restructuring for shareholder value and its implications for labour this paper provides an accounting analysis of the implications for labour of restructuring for shareholder value it presents argument and evidence from the uk that suggests that activity specific limits on cost recovery constrain returns on capital these constraints encourage restructuring which aims to improve returns on capital through the reduction of labour costs if labour loses directly longer term outcomes are more complex as some workers who retain jobs may gain and much depends on the macro context overall in the context of present day capitalism serial restructuring is likely to be a negative process for labour that generates transitory benefits for capital copyright 2000 by oxford university press

is there convergence in per capita so2 emissions in china an empirical study using city level panel data abstract as china s economy has grown rapidly in recent years china s environmental pollution has become increasingly significant among all the traditional pollutants sulfur dioxide has been monitored by the chinese government since the 1990s in this study china s city level panel data between 2002 and 2012 are utilized to investigate the existence of convergence in per capita sulfur dioxide emissions across chinese cities the conventional estimation methods for convergence suffer from an endogeneity problem and therefore produce biased results to address the endogeneity problem and allow for dynamics dynamic panel data estimators are utilized and the static estimation results are conducted as a robustness check in addition the influential factors for convergence are examined the empirical results indicate that in the chosen sample period there were absolute and conditional convergences in per capita sulfur dioxide emissions across cities within the whole nation as well as in the eastern western and central regions of china because per capita gross domestic product and the ratio of secondary industry to gross domestic product are both positively related with per capita sulfur dioxide emissions higher income per capita and greater importance of the secondary industry would cause the convergence speed to be lower therefore the most straightforward policy implication for the empirical results is that the policies for controlling sulfur dioxide emissions should be regionally differentiated for cities with high sulfur dioxide emissions per capita the regulation could be tight as the emissions would decrease faster because convergence exists however for cities with low sulfur dioxide emissions per capita the target for reducing emissions should not be excessively aggressive

adaptive behavior and economic theory the relationship between psychological and economic views of behavior once a subject of heavy dispute is now understood in a very similar way by practitioners of both these disciplines and of our sister social sciences in general terms we view or model an individual as a collection of decision rules rules that dictate the action to be taken in given situations and a set of preferences used to evaluate the outcomes arising from particular situation action combinations these decision rules are continuously under review and revision new decision rules are tried and tested against experience and rules that produce desirable outcomes supplant those that do not i use the term adaptive to refer to this trial anderror process through which our modes of behavior are determined if one is interested in modeling particular decisions in any very explicit way it is obviously necessary to think about rather narrow aspects of an individual s entire set of decision rules his or her personality experimental psychology has traditionally focused on the adaptive process by which decision rules are replaced by others in this tradition the influence of the subject s or as an economist says the agent s preferences this essay uses a series of examples to illustrate the use of rationality and adaptation in economic theory it is argued that these hypotheses are complementary and that stability theories based on adaptive behavior may help to narrow the class of empirically interesting equilibria in certain economic models an experiment is proposed to test this idea

are co2 emission levels converging among industrial countries time paths of carbon dioxide emissions intwenty one industrial countries are examinedfrom 1960 1997 to test for stochastic andconditional convergence both panel unit roottests and cross section regressions areperformed overall we find significantevidence that co2 emissions haveconverged

excessive wages and the return on capital received wisdom suggests that excessive wages defined as the part of real wages that do not follow labour productivity developments are adversely associated with the return on capital this paper argues that excessive wages and profits are better thought of as responses to changes in the economic political and institutional environment and there is no a priori reason for a negative relationship between them we thus investigate whether there is a causal effect of excessive wages on capital return using aggregate panel data for 19 oecd countries for the period 1970 2000 we account for the endogeneity of excessive wages by exploiting variations in institutional and labour market characteristics our main finding is that excessive wages do not affect the return on capital this result remains robust to alternative empirical specifications and to alternative definitions of profitability and excessive wages and questions the standard advice by international economic organizations on wage moderation copyright the author 2011 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

the building blocks of international ecological footprint inequality a regression based decomposition this paper carries out an empirical decomposition of international inequality in the ecological footprint with a view to quantifying the extent of the contribution of explanatory variables such as countries affluence economic structure demographic characteristics climate and technology using data for the period 1993 2007 the regression based inequality decomposition methodology we use allows us to extend the results obtained in standard environmental impact regressions stirpat models and to deal with an often neglected aspect of such models that of equity within generations the results obtained point towards the prioritization of policies which take into account both future and present generations in this regard economic redistribution should be considered as a primary environmental policy

raw materials profits and the productivity slowdown a factor price frontier framework is used to clarify the analogy of an increase decrease in raw material prices with autonomous technological regress progress factor price profiles are estimated for the manufacturing sector of the united states the united kingdom germany and japan the production model in conjunction with estimates obtained from the factor price frontier attributes much of the slowdown in manufacturing productivity to the rise in relative raw material prices part of the apparent productivity riddle may have to do with the use of double deflated national accounting measures of value added which have an inherent measurement bias

greenhouse gases emissions growth and the energy mix in europe the importance of energy on greenhouse gases ghg emissions is reflected by the fact that 65 of said emissions in the world are currently due to the use and production of energy however most empirical emission models are found within the environmental kuznetz curve ekc framework which focuses on the relationship between emissions and economic development ang s 2007 2008 papers are some of the exceptions that simultaneously study the relationship between emissions growth and energy with respect to ang s research we contribute on two important aspects first while ang uses a particular country as the study and use time series techniques we take advantage of a panel data set of 24 european countries between 1990 and 2006 and use a dynamic panel data dpd framework second the impact of energy consumption on emissions would depend on the primary energy mix and on the final use of this energy and we consider both factors in the model

how do we know that real wages are too high it is common belief that the wages that we observe are above the level that would prevail in a competitive labour market and also it is common to believe that wage moderation should be encouraged as a way to keep unemployment down this paper considers whether we can have confidence in these beliefs it presents a number of models designed to cast doubt on the conventional wisdom first we show that in an efficiency wage model in which there is involuntary unemployment a binding minimum wage may increase employment we then present a general equilibrium matching model in which there is involuntary unemployment but wages are below market clearing levels and raising wages can reduce unemployment we then consider the empirical evidence on employment and wage determination to argue that it is just as consistent with this model as with models in which wages are at or above market clearing levels

relative wages efficiency wages and keynesian unemployment while modern economic theorists have produced a variety of explanations for the failure of wages to fall in the face of unemployment keynes emphasis on relative wages has not been reflected in most contemporary discussions this short paper suggests that relative wage theories in which workers productivity depends primarily on their relative wage provide the best available apparatus for understanding actual unemployment and its fluctuations such theories are very closely related to the efficiency wage theories that have received widespread attention in recent years this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

mobility costs frictional unemployment and efficiency with imperfect job information flows it is plausible that the distribution of job offerings becomes more attractive when there are more vacancies and more unemployed with word of mouth communication this condition is derived given this condition steady state equilibrium is not efficient with welfare increased by the introduction of unemployment compensation even though all agents are risk neutral in this way workers become more selective in the jobs they accept

convergence of the south and non south income distributions 1969 1979 income distribution and inequalities in the southern united states are analyzed and compared with data for the rest of the country the evidence presented in this paper reveals that in the 1970s the souths income distribution either converged or moved significantly closer to the income distribution of the rest of the country the degree of convergence depends on the definition of the recipient unit and to a degree on the particular cost of living index used to deflate southern and non southern incomes the convergence is attributed in part to the labor unionization in the northeast and the resulting relocation of companies to the south data are from the 1970 and 1980 censuses and concern total household income excerpt

distribution dynamics of co2 emissions this paper uses nonparametric methods to examine the convergence in co2 emissions per capita on a sample of 100 countries for the period 1966 1996 industrial countries show a convergence pattern however there is little evidence of convergence for the whole sample

convergence of carbon dioxide performance across swedish industrial sectors an environmental index approach the overall objective of the paper is to analyze convergence of co2 emission intensity across manufacturing sectors in sweden our approach differs from previous work on carbon convergence in that

convergence of per capita sulphur dioxide emissions across us states this study examines the stochastic conditional convergence of sulphur dioxide so2 emissions using the residual augmented least squares lagrange multiplier rals lm unit root test with structural breaks this procedure allows the data to account for trend breaks and nonnormal errors that have been ignored or deemphasized in previous studies the study finds that per capita sulphur dioxide emissions exhibits stochastic conditional convergence across us states

growth and pollution convergence theory and evidence stabilizing pollution levels in the long run is a pre requisite for sustainable growth we develop a neoclassical growth model with endogenous emission reduction predicting that along optimal sustainable paths pollution growth rates are i positively related to output growth scale effect and ii negatively related to emission levels defensive effect this dynamic law reduces to a convergence equation that is empirically tested for two major and regulated air pollutants sulfur oxides and nitrogen oxides with a panel of 25 european countries spanning the years 1980 2005 traditional parametric models are rejected by the data more flexible regression techniques confirm the existence of both the scale and the defensive effect supporting the model predictions

international evidence on the persistence of economic fluctuations abstract this paper presents new evidence on the persistence of fluctuations in real gnp we estimate two measures of persistence nonparametrically using post war quarterly data from canada france germany italy japan the united kingdom and the united states we compare these estimates with monte carlo results from various ar 2 processes for six out of seven countries the point estimates indicate that a 1 shock to output should change the long run unvariate forecast of output by well over 1 low order arma models yield similar conclusions finally we examine the persistence in relative outputs of different countries

are shocks to ecological balance permanent or temporary evidence from lm unit root tests abstract ecological balance can be described as the difference between ecological footprint and biocapacity it is an important indicator of sustainable and environmental development in this regard the current study aims to determine whether policies on ecological balance are effective in g7 and e7 countries covering the period of 1961 2016 to this end we use the lagrange multiplier lm unit root test lm unit root test with structural breaks and fourier lm unit root test as well as more powerful versions of these tests to investigate the stationarity of the ecological balance we also examine the effectiveness of policies regarding ecological footprint and biocapacity the empirical results obtained from both linear and non linear unit root tests show that ecological balance is stationary in germany italy japan the us china india indonesia mexico and turkey while it is non stationary in the remaining five countries however the findings based on the structural break unit root tests suggest that ecological balance is stationary in more countries finally the overall results indicate that shocks to the ecological balance in g7 countries have a more permanent effect than in e7 countries therefore g7 countries can better apply environmental protection policies than e7 countries can in the long term in brazil canada france russia and the uk environmental policies can be effectively implemented to regulate ecological balance

expectational stability and the multiple equilibria problem in linear rational expectations models linear models involving expectations of future endogenous variables generally have multiple rational expectations equilibria this paper investigates the stability of solutions in the disequilibrium sense of whether given a small deviation of expectations functions from some rational expectations equilibrium the system returns to that solution under a natural revision rule weak and strong local stability are distinguished stability conditions are calculated for a simple general linear model and applied to two macroeconomic examples in some cases there is a unique stable equilibrium in other cases a continuum of equilibria forms a weakly but not strongly stable class

trade in a tiebout economy the purpose of this paper is to explore both the positive and normative aspects of commodity trade in a tiebout economy by tiebout economy i mean an economy with a large number of small regions for example communities or states and no impediments to the mobility of individuals between these regions this type of economy has received widespread attention since the appearance of charles tiebout s classic 1956 article on local public goods in part because it bears a close relation to the standard competitive model this relation suggests that tiebout economies may serve as an

global convergence in per capita co2 emissions national social science foundation of china 12zd059 ministry of education 10gbj013 new huadu business school research fund

the expectational stability of underemployment equilibria i introduction one of the most important recent developments in macroeconomic theory has been the demonstration of how external economies of scale may generate multiple perfect foresight equilibria a positive externality such as that studied by diamond 1982 may generate two saddle path equilibria one converging to a high employment steady state and the other converging to an inferior low employment steady state for given initial conditions there are therefore two equilibrium choices of employment in howitt and mcafee s 1988 model which has both a positive and a negative externality any one of a continuum of employment choices will satisfy optimality conditions and converge to the low employment steady state thus the literature on externalities demonstrates that there may exist a stable or saddle path stable pareto inferior low employment equilibrium in a perfect foresight model with market clearing and flexible prices 1 an intriguing feature of these models is the possibility that economic fluctuations might be driven by waves of optimism or pessimism that move the economy from one equilibrium to another along with the possibility of multiple equilibria there is however a problem of indeterminacy how do we say which equilibrium will be chosen the idea that waves of optimism or pessimism move the economy is provocative and intuitively appealing but a more explicit account of how individuals come to focus on a particular equilibrium a selection criterion is needed one criterion that has been used successfully to limit the multiplicity of equilibria in rational expectations and perfect foresight models is the stability of an adaptive learning procedure 2 under adaptive learning the agents in the model learn about the economy in much the same way as an econometrician they have a perfect foresight equilibrium model of the economy and they use the available macroeconomic data to infer the value of that model s parameters their parameter estimates determine their forecasts and these forecasts determine their choice of labor inputs if a given steady state equilibrium is unstable under a broad class of plausible learning rules it is unlikely that the economy will converge to that equilibrium even if it is stable under perfect foresight if a steady state is stable under learning then we are more confident that it may be observed in an actual economy in this paper i apply the concept of expectational stability to howitt and mcafee s 1988 model of aggregate employment in the presence of externalities 3 expectational stability is a simple and therefore highly tractable iterative learning scheme that has been used by evans 1985 and by bray 1982 proposition 4 to study the convergence of learning to rational expectations in addition to being tractable the procedure is general indeed the local stability conditions of the procedure used in this paper are the same as the conditions for local stability of least squares learning as derived by marcet and sargent 1989a 1989b these same conditions are necessary for the stability of a broad class of learning algorithms including least squares estimation kalman filtering and iterative gauss newton procedures as is shown in ljung and soderstrum 1983 i study learning in howitt and mcafee s 1988 model because it is also highly general it incorporates both thick market positive and congestion negative externalities it allows for multiple perfect foresight steady states that are alternately stable and saddle path stable 4 further i show that the widely cited model of diamond 1981 1982 is a special case of the howitt and mcafee model in this paper i show that the learning rule eliminates the problem of indeterminacy it will however also rule out those steady states that are unambiguously pareto inferior stable low employment steady states may exist but they cannot be ranked

non renewable resource prices deterministic or stochastic trends in this paper we examine temporal properties of 11 natural resource real price series from 1870 to 1990 recent studies by ahrens and sharma trends in natural resource commodity prices deterministic or stochastic j environ econom manage 33 1997 59 74 berck and roberts natural resource prices will they ever turn up j environ econom manage 31 1996 65 78 and slade grade selection under uncertainty least cost last and other anomalies j environ econom manage 15 1988 189 205 among others find that many non renewable resource prices have a stochastic trend we revisit this issue by employing a lagrangian multiplier unit root test that allows for two endogenously determined structural breaks with and without a quadratic trend contrary to previous research we find evidence against the unit root hypothesis for all price series our findings support characterizing natural resource prices as stationary around deterministic trends with structural breaks we additionally show that both pre testing for unit roots with breaks and allowing for breaks in the forecast model can improve forecast accuracy overall the results in this paper are important in both a positive and normative sense without an appropriate understanding of the dynamics of a time series empirical verification of theories forecasting and proper inference are potentially fruitless