technological discontinuities and the challenge for incumbent firms destruction disruption or creative accumulation the creative destruction of existing industries as a consequence of discontinuous technological change is a central theme in the literature on industrial innovation and technological development established competence based and market based explanations of this phenomenon argue that incumbents are seriously challenged only by competence destroying or disruptive innovations which make their existing knowledge base or business models obsolete and leave them vulnerable to attacks from new entrants this paper challenges these arguments with detailed empirical analyses of the automotive and gas turbine industries we demonstrate that these explanations overestimate the ability of new entrants to destroy and disrupt established industries and underestimate the capacity of incumbents to perceive the potential of new technologies and integrate them with existing capabilities moreover we show how intense competition in the wake of technological discontinuities driven entirely by incumbents may instead result in late industry shakeouts we develop and extend the notion of creative accumulation as a way of conceptualizing the innovating capacity of the incumbents that appear to master such turbulence specifically we argue that creative accumulation requires firms to handle a triple challenge of simultaneously a fine tuning and evolving existing technologies at a rapid pace b acquiring and developing new technologies and resources and c integrating novel and existing knowledge into superior products and solutions

friedman s plucking model of business fluctuations tests and estimates of permanent and transitory components in milton friedman s model output cannot exceed a ceiling level but occasionally is plucked downward by recession implying fluctuations are asymmetric recessions transitory and recessions duration dependent though expansions are not the empirical literature lends support but formal modeling has been absent the econometric model presented here encompasses both plucking and symmetric fluctuations around a stochastic trend we find gdp is well characterized by the plucking model implied recessions correspond to nber reference cycles and no role for symmetric cycles decomposition of the unemployment rate reveals a corresponding asymmetry and timing paths of ceiling output and trend unemployment are presented

monopolistic competition with experience goods this paper constructs a model of monopolistic competition where consumers cannot directly verify product quality prior to an initial purchase instead consumers base initial purchases on observed prices which perfectly signal firms qualities both in and out of equilibrium equilibrium quality is less than efficient but generally bounded away from the minimum quality with free entry observable product variety exceeds what would prevail with perfect information as repeat purchases become large relative to initial purchases or as firms become small relative to the size of the market equilibrium product quality rises and the market converges to the full information equilibrium

extracting nonlinear signals from several economic indicators summary we develop a twofold analysis of how the information provided by several economic indicators can be used in markov switching dynamic factor models to identify the business cycle turning points first we compare the performance of a fully nonlinear multivariate specification one step approach with the shortcut of using a linear factor model to obtain a coincident indicator which is then used to compute the markov switching probabilities two step approach second we examine the role of increasing the number of indicators our results suggest that one step is generally preferred to two steps especially in the vicinity of turning points although its gains diminish as the quality of the indicators increases additionally we also obtain decreasing returns of adding more indicators with similar signal to noise ratios using the four constituent series of the stock watson coincident index we illustrate these results for us data copyright 2014 john wiley sons ltd

measuring business cycles a modern perspective in the first half of this century special attention was given to two features of the business cycle 1 the comovement of many individual economic series and 2 the different behavior of the economy during expansions and contractions both of these attributes were ignored in many subsequent business cycle models which were often linear representations of a single macroeconomic aggregate however recent theoretical and empirical research has revived interest in each attribute separately notably dynamic factor models have been used to obtain a single common factor from a set of macroeconomic variables and nonlinear models have been used to describe the regime switching nature of aggregate output we survey these two strands of research and then provide some suggestive empirical analysis in an effort to unite the two literatures and to assess their usefulness in a statistical characterization of business cycle dynamics

technology uncertainty sunk costs and industry shakeout i propose a novel explanation for new industry shakeouts because of capacity sunk costs and the fear of backing the wrong technology firms initially invest up to a small capacity leading to a large number of initial entrants as the dust settles and a dominant technology emerges surviving firms expand to their long term optimal capacity which results in a reduction in the number of competitors notwithstanding the increase in total market output copyright 2012 the author 2011 published by oxford university press on behalf of associazione icc all rights reserved oxford university press

a historical review of promotion strategies for electricity from renewable energy sources in eu countries abstract the core objective of this paper is to elaborate on historically implemented promotion strategies of renewable energy sources and the associated deployment within the european electricity market hence at a first glance the historic development of renewable energy sources in the electricity res e sector is addressed on member state and on sectoral level as well as consequently discussed according to available res e potentials and costs the specific focus of this paper are promotion strategies for res e options as they are the key driver of an efficient and effective res e deployment therefore the paper depicts the main types of different promotion schemes and their properties additionally several cases studies of different european member states show an in depth analysis of the different res e promotion schemes in this context special emphasises are put on the question of effective and efficient promotion scheme designs of different res e technologies generally conducted research led to the conclusion that technology specific financial support measures of res e performed much more effective and efficient than others did hence it is not all about the common question of feed in tariffs vs quota systems based on tradable green certificates but more about the design criteria of implemented res e support schemes

the enactment of socio technical transition pathways a reformulated typology and a comparative multi level analysis of the german and uk low carbon electricity transitions 1990 2014 abstract this paper aims to make two contributions to the sustainability transitions literature in particular the geels and schot 2007 res policy 36 3 399 transition pathways typology first it reformulates and differentiates the typology through the lens of endogenous enactment identifying the main patterns for actors formal institutions and technologies second it suggests that transitions may shift between pathways depending on struggles over technology deployment and institutions both contributions are demonstrated with a comparative analysis of unfolding low carbon electricity transitions in germany and the uk between 1990 2014 the analysis shows that germany is on a substitution pathway enacted by new entrants deploying small scale renewable electricity technologies rets while the uk is on a transformation pathway enacted by incumbent actors deploying large scale rets further analysis shows that the german transition has recently shifted from a stretch and transform substitution pathway to a fit and conform pathway because of a fightback from utilities and altered institutions it also shows that the uk transition moved from moderate to substantial incumbent reorientation as government policies became stronger recent policy changes however substantially downscaled uk renewables support which is likely to shift the transition back to weaker reorientation

the governance of sustainable socio technical transitions a quasi evolutionary model of socio technical transitions is described in which regimes face selection pressures continuously differentiated transition contexts determine the form and direction of regime change in response to these pressures the articulation of pressures and the degree to which responses are coordinated and based on resources available within the regime define the transition context four alternative contexts are described endogenous renewal re orientation of trajectories emergent transformation and purposive transitions agency and power in the governance of regime transformation are analysed power to affect change depends on regime membership the distribution of resources for change and expectations

incumbents diversification and cross sectorial energy industry dynamics abstract within the sustainability transitions literature established mature or incumbent firms have been stereotyped as locked in to socio technical regimes however we believe regimes have been black boxed and few studies have explored incumbents responses to transition processes this article aims to achieve an improved understanding of incumbents in established energy sectors and their extent of involvement in other niche energy sectors to this avail we analyze data from a first of its kind survey of 133 incumbent firms in norway s two main energy sectors namely oil gas and hydropower providing inter temporal dimensions our data covers incumbents diversification activities beyond their primary sector both in the past cancelled activities present ongoing activity in secondary sectors and future ambitions of diversification and also distinguishes between producers and product service suppliers by incorporating insights on firm diversification our analysis sheds new light on the complex transformation processes associated with sustainability transitions empirical results show considerable heterogeneity in incumbents responses to changing selection pressures which can be explained by recognition that windows of opportunity are opening and some incumbents see potential to leverage their resources and capabilities to capture value in new niche energy sectors in both domestic and international markets

understanding carbon lock in abstract this paper narrative argues that industrial economies have been locked into fossil fuel based energy systems through a process of technological and institutional co evolution driven by path dependent increasing returns to scale it is asserted that this condition termed carbon lock in creates persistent market and policy failures that can inhibit the diffusion of carbon saving technologies despite their apparent environmental and economic advantages the notion of a techno institutional complex is introduced to capture the idea that lock in occurs through combined interactions among technological systems and governing institutions while carbon lock in provides a conceptual basis for understanding macro level barriers to the diffusion of carbon saving technologies it also generates questions for standard economic modeling approaches that abstract away technological and institutional evolution in their elaboration the question of escaping carbon lock in is left for a future paper

competition and outsourcing with scale economies scale economies are commonplace in operations yet because of analytical challenges relatively little is known about how firms should compete in their presence this paper presents a model of competition between two firms that face scale economies i e each firm s cost per unit of demand is decreasing in demand a general framework is used which incorporates competition between two service providers with price and time sensitive demand a queuing game and competition between two retailers with fixed ordering costs and pricesensitive consumers an economic order quantity game reasonably general conditions are provided under which there exists at most one equilibrium with both firms participating in the market we demonstrate in the context of the queuing game that the lower cost firm in equilibrium may have a higher market share and a higher price an enviable situation we also allow each firm to outsource their production process to a supplier even if the supplier s technology is no better than the firms technology and the supplier is required to establish dedicated capacity so the supplier s scale can be no greater than either firm s scale we show that the firms strictly prefer to outsource we conclude that scale economies provide a strong motivation for outsourcing that has not previously been identified in the literature

business cycle turning points a new coincident index and tests of duration dependence based on a dynamic factor model with regime switching the synthesis of the dynamic factor model of stock and watson 1989 and the regime switching model of hamilton 1989 proposed by diebold and rudebusch 1996 potentially encompasses both features of the business cycle identified by burns and mitchell 1946 1 comovement among economic variables through the cycle and 2 nonlinearity in its evolution however maximum likelihood estimation has required approximation recent advances in multimove gibbs sampling methodology open the way to approximation free inference in such non gaussian nonlinear models this paper estimates the model for u s data and attempts to address three questions are both features of the business cycle empirically relevant might the implied new index of coincident indicators be a useful one in practice do the resulting estimates of regime switches show evidence of duration dependence the answers to all three would appear to be yes

model averaging in markov switching models predicting national recessions with regional data this paper introduces new weighting schemes for model averaging when one is interested in combining discrete forecasts from competing markov switching models in the empirical application we forecast u s business cycle turning points with state level employment data we find that forecasts obtained with our best combination scheme provide timely updates of u s recessions in that they outperform a notoriously difficult benchmark to beat the anxious index from the survey of professional forecasters for short term forecasts

explaining the role of incumbent utilities in sustainable energy transitions a case study of the smart grid development in china abstract smart grids sgs have been widely recognized as an enabling technology for delivering sustainable energy transitions such transitions have given rise to more complex government utility consumer relationships however these stakeholder relationships remain largely under researched this paper critically examines and explains the role of incumbent utilities in sustainable energy transitions using sg developments in china as a case study we have three major findings first china has developed an incumbent led model for deploying sgs second two incumbents the major state owned grid companies act as enablers of sg deployment they are strategic first movers and infrastructure builders of sgs they have also developed five types of networks as they increasingly reach out to other state actors businesses and electricity consumers thirdly these two grid companies also act as a fundamental block to structural changes in socio technical regimes disincentives to these large existing grid companies coupled with excessive reliance on them to provide public goods have resulted in major weaknesses in china s incumbent led model our findings have clear policy implications innovation in regulating incumbents is needed in order to provide sufficient regulatory incentives for advancing sg developments in china

decarbonising the power sector via technological change differing contributions from heterogeneous firms abstract in the power sector technological change is a key lever to address the decarbonisation needed to avoid dangerous climate change policy makers aim to accelerate and redirect technological change by targeting relevant firms via climate policy e g the european union emissions trading system eu ets and climate relevant technology policies e g feed in tariffs changes in firm s behaviour i e their research and development r d as well as diffusion activities are at the heart of technological change however firms are heterogeneous actors with varying attributes which perceive policy differently hence they can be expected to react very heterogeneously to these new policies based on an original dataset of 201 firms we perform a cluster analysis grouping firms along their r d and diffusion activity changes we then compare these clusters with regards to the characteristics of the contained firms our analysis results in seven clusters showing very diverse contributions to low carbon technological change suggesting potential for policy to become more effective a comparison of the firms characteristics allows us to derive indicative recommendations on how to adjust the policy mix in order to induce contributions from most firms in the power sector

disruption disintegration and the dissipation of differentiability this paper proposes a deductively derived model to help managers who preside over decisions to integrate or outsource to assess ex ante whether when and why it might be strategically and competitively important to develop internal capabilities to perform certain activities in house and when it would be sensible and safe to outsource elements of value added among the paper s conclusions are that the competitive advantage from vertical integration is strongest in tiers of the market where customers are under served by the functionality or performance available from products in the market vertical integration tends to be a disadvantage when customers are over served by the functionality available from products in the market vertically integrated firms will therefore often dominate in the most demanding tiers of markets that have grown to substantial size while a horizontally stratified or disintegrated industry structure will often be the dominant business model in the tiers of the market that are less demanding of functionality

internationalising in small incremental or larger steps we argue that companies may enter foreign environments either incrementally as suggested by long established theory or by taking larger steps that may result in lower initial performance but through learning and experience lead to increased performance in future expansions this idea is corroborated by the experience of dutch companies entering into central and eastern europe we also find that expansion steps may be too large thereby limiting the exploration of foreign environments our study suggests that sequential internationalisation strategies do still matter and that companies have to balance exploitation and exploration in internationalisation

responding to structural industry changes a technological evolution perspective we argue that the search for a dynamic theory of strategy and for a link between the product market and resource based views may be incomplete without an exploration of the evolution of the technology that underlies products and heterogeneous firm capability as technology evolves so do industry characteristics products and critical success factors firms without the right capabilities are forced to exit thus an industry s structure attractiveness and the kinds of capabilities that it needs to succeed may vary over time suggesting different strategies for each phase

creative destruction or mere niche support innovation policy mixes for sustainability transitions recently there has been an increasing interest in policy mixes in innovation studies while it has long been acknowledged that the stimulation of innovation and technological change involves different types of policy instruments how such instruments form policy mixes has only recently become of interest we argue that an area in which policy mixes are particularly important is the field of sustainability transitions transitions imply not only the development of disruptive innovations but also of policies aiming for wider change in socio technical systems we propose that ideally policy mixes for transitions include elements of creative destruction involving both policies aiming for the creation of new and for destabilising the old we develop a novel analytical framework including the two policy mix dimensions creation and destruction by broadening the technological innovation system functions approach and specifically by expanding the concept of motors of innovation to motors of creative destruction we test this framework by analysing low energy policy mixes in finland and the uk we find that both countries have diverse policy mixes to support energy efficiency and reduce energy demand with instruments to cover all functions on the creation side despite the demonstrated need for such policies unsurprisingly destabilising functions are addressed by fewer policies but there are empirical examples of such policies in both countries the concept of motors of creative destruction is introduced to expand innovation and technology policy debates to go beyond policy mixes consisting of technology push and demand pull instruments and to consider a wider range of policy instruments combined in a suitable mix which may contribute to sustainability transitions

innovation processes in large technical systems market liberalization as a driver for radical change abstract electricity supply is a large technical system which exhibits strong path dependencies and high barriers for radical innovations recent market liberalization however has initiated a fundamental restructuring the paper analyzes how liberalization has altered innovation processes in the field of electricity supply we examine three radical innovations under monopoly conditions and contrast the findings with the results from a survey on the innovation behavior of electric utilities in liberalized markets we argue that the selection environment for innovations has changed in various respects in our sample new options open to innovation activities have emerged at the level of the firm and utility strategies turn out to be more heterogeneous this may be interpreted as an increase in the variety of search processes which may lead to a mid term decrease of path dependencies

transition pathways revisited established firms as multi level actors in the heavy vehicle industry abstract the multi level perspective on sustainability transitions positions established firms incumbents as defenders of existing technologies at the regime level by contrast it positions new entrants at the niche level as promoters of new technologies this paper challenges the positioning of firms as actors on either regime or niche levels based on a comparative analysis of technology strategies in the heavy vehicle industry the paper shows that established firms are active at both levels developing several technology alternatives simultaneously this means that incumbents technology strategies determine important parts of the required niche regime interactions the paper also shows how incumbents may pursue contrasting technology strategies while some adopt a dualistic approach keeping regime and niche level activities technologically and commercially separate others develop integrated strategies where niche activities are leveraged to impact upon the regime level the cases studied illustrate how the success of such integrated strategies depends on the emergence of bridging policies bridging policies are relevant both for linking early niche markets to broader regime level markets and for supporting further technological advancements of niche markets

internationalization as a strategy to overcome industry barriers an assessment of the marine energy industry abstract research on conditions to develop new innovations within emerging renewable energy industries is often done with a national focus however recent research on international entrepreneurship has revealed that firms operate on international levels very early in their life time thus based on former research on international entrepreneurship and case examples we build the propositions that firms in the marine energy industry use internationalization as a strategy to overcome industry barriers our primary source of data is a unique dataset from a global survey of all the companies in the marine energy industry who are aiming to commercialize a wave or tidal energy device this paper is organized in two steps first we identified the most challenging industry barriers perceived by companies second we use these to form propositions which we assess through empirical data the two most challenging barriers perceived by the companies are need for capital and need for supportive political schemes our findings reveal that internationalization certainly is a common strategy to access capital and attractive support schemes in foreign countries the early internationalization has implications for researchers managers and policy makers

forecasting us recessions with macro factors dynamic factors estimated from panels of macroeconomic indicators are used to predict future recessions using probit models three factors are considered a bond and exchange rates factor a stock market factor and a real activity factor three results emerge first models that use only financial indicators exhibit a large deterioration in fit after 2005 second models that use factors yield better fit than models that use indicators directly out of sample forecasting exercises confirm these results for 3 6 and 12 month horizons using both ex post revised data and real time data third results show evidence that data revisions affect factors less than individual indicators

equilibrium in servicing industries an economic application of queuing theory the purpose of this article is to investigate the nature of equilibrium in markets in which service an d waiting time play an important role the author shows that if consu mers do not know which firms are charging which prices all firms cha rge the same price if firms reveal their prices by advertising the market separates with consumers with a high low cost of time buying from firms with high low prices and short long queues if firms are allowed to advertise they will but they benefit from a collusiv e agreement restricting advertisement provided the agreement is enfo rceable copyright 1988 by the university of chicago

smart grids and the transformation of the electricity sector ict firms as potential catalysts for sectoral change abstract the sustainability challenges associated with increasing demand and generation of electricity require a far reaching transformation of the energy system smart grid technologies are expected to play a major role in such sectoral transformation while a growing body of literature is concerned with the dynamics and particularities of sectoral transformation most contributions have focused on exogenous shocks or new technological developments as drivers of change this paper complements the existing perspectives by exploring the role of actors as catalysts for transformation within the field of smart grid we study the transformative influence of ict firms on the energy sector in europe more specifically we analyze actor participation in 450 european smart grid projects between 2000 and 2011 as well as acquisitions in the field we find that incumbent firms from the ict sector have gained influence and drive transformation through the creation of variety in terms of technology business models and value chains as a strategic reaction electricity sector incumbents have recently acquired many start ups specialized in ict technology and thus expanded their competence base we conclude that entrants from another sector can be important catalysts for sectoral transformation and should be analyzed more systematically in transition studies

inventories and the three phases of the business cycle this article demonstrates that recessions typically are followed by high growth recovery phases that push output back to its prerecession level thus postwar fluctuations in real output in the united states have consisted of three sequential phases rather than two contractions high growth recoveries and moderate growth periods following recoveries data from before world war ii also exhibit this pattern for the postwar period the three phase pattern is shown to reflect swings in inventory investment and suggests that output fluctuations have an important transitory component the evidence in this article supports delong and summers s output gaps view and friedman s plucking model view of fluctuations

the destabilisation of existing regimes confronting a multi dimensional framework with a case study of the british coal industry 1913 1967 because innovation studies are oriented towards novelty scholars in this field have paid less attention to the destabilisation of existing regimes this paper discusses four views on industry destabilisation and presents an encompassing conceptual framework which addresses interactions between the build up of external pressures industry response strategies and the gradual weakening of commitment to existing regime elements we confront the framework with an in depth longitudinal case study of the british coal industry 1913 1967 specific conclusions are developed about different degrees of regime inertia the ebb and flow of external pressures the relative importance of economic and socio political pressures and interactions between them

technological innovations and sectoral change transformative capacity adaptability patterns of change an analytical framework following up on recent debates about sectoral systems of innovation and production the paper introduces a heuristic framework for analyzing and explaining distinct patterns of technology based sectoral change the concept is based on two interrelated influencing factors the first is the sectoralspecific transformative capacity of new technologies themselves that is their substantial or incremental impact on socioeconomic and institutional change in a given sectoral system the second is the sectoral adaptability of socioeconomic structures institutions and actors confronted with the opportunities presented by new technologies the first factor the sectoral transformative capacity of new technologies enables us to identify the technology based pressure to change and adjust the structural institutional and organizational architectures of the sectoral system the second complementary factor sectoral adaptability helps us to discern the distinct social patterns of anticipating and adopting this technology based pressure the specific interplay between the two influencing factors creates distinguishable modes of sectoral transformation ranging from anticipative and smooth adjustments to reactive and crisis ridden patterns of change even processes of radical sectoral change continue over longer periods of mismatch and are characterized by numerous and mostly gradual organizational structural and institutional transformations

strategic niche management from a business perspective taking cleaner vehicle technologies from prototype to series production strategic niche management has been outlined as a policy approach to assist development and diffusion of cleaner new technologies based on a case study describing the efforts of a leading actor in the heavy vehicle industry to develop and commercially introduce hybrid electric vehicles this paper discusses strategic niche management from the perspective of the manufacturing firm in particular the paper analyses experiences from extensive field tests executed in london tests which involved a number of different manufacturers hybrid systems and vehicles the scale of this technological niche added confidence and credibility to the technology and helped opening up an important niche market which was supported by an extensive subsidy scheme the analysis shows how the field tests and the subsidies jointly functioned as bridging policies that facilitated an important step in the market formation process the analysis further points at a critical tension between niches and the volume oriented business of a major vehicle manufacturer showing how investments in new technology need to be warranted in market trends and projections of future sales and production volumes to become accepted within a vehicle manufacturer s organization

multiproduct monopoly a queueing approach using queuing theory to model traditional market structures can provide interesting insights into the underlying mechanisms many characteristics of markets are well known but queuing models often illustrate these in a novel manner a stochastic model of multiproduct monopoly with impatient consumers is developed the model explicitly allows for congestion effects a monopoly that offers two services distinguished only by a time element that is where two distinct service rates apply is considered two different classes of consumer are considered according to their waiting time tolerances given assumptions about dynamic consumer choice behaviour queuing theory techniques are used to derive market share and effective demand details for each class of consumer in terms of the firm s pricing quality and processing speed policy economic analysis is performed allowing for the possibility of offering a reward when the consumer has to face a long queue the economic summary provided forms the basis of a

the structuration of socio technical regimes conceptual foundations from institutional theory abstract in recent years socio technical transitions literature has gained importance in addressing long term transformative change in various industries in order to account for the inertia and path dependency experienced in these sectors the concept of the socio technical regime has been formulated socio technical regimes denote the paradigmatic core of a sector which results from the co evolution of institutions and technologies over time despite its widespread acceptance the regime concept has repeatedly been criticized for lacking a clear operationalization as a consequence empirical applications tend to depict regimes as too monolithic and homogenous not adequately considering persistent institutional tensions and contradictions these are however crucial for assessing transition dynamics in this paper we revisit two concepts from institutional theory that enable an explicit identification of socio technical regimes and more generally a specification of the semi coherence of socio technical systems first we will show that levels of structuration can be conceptualized as degrees of institutionalization thereby treating institutionalization as a variable with different effects on actors the stability of the system and thus the potential for change secondly we draw on the institutional logics approach to characterize the content of various structural elements present in a system and to trace conflicts and contradictions between them we illustrate this approach with an empirical in depth analysis of the transformation of the australian urban water sector since the 1970ies

patterns of innovation and organizational demography in emerging sustainable fields an analysis of the chemical sector this paper examines the patterns of environmental innovation in the chemical sector and focuses in particular on detecting whether the rise of sustainable chemistry technologies sct has stimulated the emergence of new organizations this question is important to assess the extent to which sct are sustaining the technological advantage of industry incumbents or are creating opportunities for new firms aspiring to develop radically new environmental innovations we found that sct still represent a relatively low proportion of chemical technologies and that they have not stimulated in a significant way the emergence of new firms however the importance of new firms has grown in the last 20 years and their technologies seem to have a higher potential of radicalness than incumbents technologies this indicates that although incumbents advantage remains strong a small group of young firms has started to weaken such advantage moreover the important role played by research organizations in generating sct may signal that technological opportunities are expanding and that some governments in particular the us government are committed to develop sct these results suggest that if supported by effective policies technological ferment in the field which at the present appears still limited has a potential of growth

an econometric characterization of business cycle dynamics with factor structure and regime switching a dynamic factor model with regime switching is proposed as an empirical characterization of business cycles the approach integrates the idea of comovements among macroeconomic variables and asymmetries of business cycle expansions and contractions the first is captured with an unobservable dynamic factor and the second by allowing the factor to switch regimes the model is estimated by maximizing its likelihood function and the empirical results indicate that the combination of these two features leads to a successful representation of the data relative to extant literature this holds for within and out of sample and for both revised and real time data copyright 1998 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

sectoral systems of innovation and production the concept sectoral system of innovation and production provides a multidimensional integrated and dynamic view of sectors it is proposed that a sectoral system is a set of products and the set of agents carrying out market and non market interactions for the creation production and sale of those products a sectoral systems has a specific knowledge base technologies inputs and demand agents are individuals and organizations at various levels of aggregation they interact through processes of communication exchange co operation competition and command and these interactions are shaped by institutions a sectoral system undergoes change and transformation through the co evolution of its various elements 2002 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

towards understanding the benefits and challenges of smart micro grid for electricity supply system in nigeria the poor state of electricity supply system in nigeria is threatening the welfare and security of life and properties of millions of individuals with adverse economic consequences for the country the inadequacy of the national grid especially the inability of the electricity generation capacity to match increasing demand in the country has led to increasing agitation for increased penetration of renewable energy sources ress into the electricity supply mix while great attention has been focused on the potential of ress for electricity generation in the country little or no attention has been given to the application of smart micro grid sm g technologies to the ageing nigeria grid infrastructures and electrification of the rural areas the aim of this paper is to bring into focus the benefits and challenges of enabling sm g in the electricity supply system in nigeria sm g will bring benefits to the electricity stakeholders in form of improvements in reliability efficiency economics environment security and safety the paper gives an overview and reviews the current state of the electricity supply system in the country it discusses the sm g concepts and associated technologies and highlights how they can help address the electricity problems in the country the challenges of applying these concepts in nigeria context are also discussed enabling sm g in the country will not only lead to improvement in the quality efficiency and reliability of the electricity grid but also promote the provision of electricity supply to the remote rural areas using ress

sprayed to death path dependence lock in and pest control strategies theoretical literature on the economics of technology has emphasized the effects on technological trajectories of positive feedbacks in a competition among technologies that all perform a similar function the presence of increasing returns to adoptions can force all but one technology from the market furthermore the victor need not be the superior technology this paper provides an empirical study of one technological competition which illuminates this theoretical work it uses theoretical results to explain why chemical control of agricultural pests remains the dominant technology in spite of many claims that it is inferior to its main competitor integrated pest management copyright 1996 by royal economic society

governing the transition of socio technical systems a case study of the development of smart grids in korea abstract this paper examines the motivations processes and outcomes of the development of smart grids in south korea through the perspectives of governance and innovation systems drawing on desktop research and semi structured interviews this paper has two major findings first the development of smart grids in korea has been shaped by various factors including macroeconomic policy the role of the government and experimentation the complex interactions between these factors at the landscape regime and niche levels has impacted on the development of smart grids second while korea s government led approach has its strengths in driving change it has also exposed weaknesses in the country s ability to mobilise the private sector and consumer participation major obstacles including partial electricity market reform and public distrust exist a systemic perspective is needed for policy in order to accommodate the changes required for smart grid development regulatory reforms particularly price setting mechanisms and consumer engagement are priority areas for policy change

new index of coincident indicators a multivariate markov switching factor model approach abstract this paper extends the univariate markov switching unobserved component model to the multivariate markov switching factor model of coincident economic indicators an approximate ml method is developed to estimate the model the extracted markov switching factor may be interpreted as the coincident index and is comparable to the stock watson index which differs only by the markov switching component using four constituent series of the doc coincident index for the period january 1960 to june 1992 the proposed model generates recessionary and expansionary periods which are remarkably consistent with the nber chronology of the business cycles from the noisy monthly data this paper also finds that duration dependence does matter

socio technical inertia understanding the barriers to electric vehicles it is widely accepted that electrification of the transport sector is one of several technological trajectories that could redress some of the environmental issues associated with the growth in travel demand including climate change and oil demand at a global scale and air quality and noise pollution at the urban scale electric vehicles have been considered a promising technology at repeated intervals over the last century but this promise has not been realised this paper is a contribution to understanding the key tools and strategies that might enable the successful introduction of new technologies and innovations by exploring the key barriers to electric vehicles encountered in two countries uk and germany where the automobile industry has been historically significant the study evaluates stakeholders opinions on relevant regulation infrastructure investment r d incentives and consumer incentives the key findings of the research are that the introduction and penetration of evs is confronted by several barriers that inhibit a larger market penetration under current conditions which in turn casts doubt on the assumptions of strategic niche management and transitions theory

multi regime dynamics in the analysis of sectoral transformation potentials evidence from german utility sectors abstract network bound infrastructure systems as electricity gas water and telecommunications are currently undergoing transformations on various levels and dimensions liberalization technological innovations and socio cultural dynamics are part of this for analyzing these ongoing transformation dynamics as well as exploring future developments of utility systems a theoretical concept is necessary which spans production consumption and governance different levels and also different sectors this paper argues that the multi level perspective is a fruitful starting point allowing the identification of interrelated transformation dynamics in production consumption and governance but that multi regime dynamics need more emphasis particularly in a future oriented analysis

introducing the euro sting short term indicator of euro area growth we set out a model to compute short term forecasts of the euro area gdp growth in real time to allow for forecast evaluation we construct a real time dataset that changes for each vintage date and includes the exact information that was available at the time of each forecast with this dataset we show that our simple factor model algorithm which uses an easy to replicate methodology is able to forecast the euro area gdp growth as well as professional forecasters who can combine the best forecasting tools with the possibility of incorporating their own judgement in this context we provide examples showing how data revisions and data availability affect point forecasts and forecast uncertainty copyright 2010 john wiley sons ltd

uk innovation systems for new and renewable energy technologies drivers barriers and systems failures abstract a better understanding of the systemic processes by which innovation occurs is useful both conceptually and to inform policy making in support of innovation in more sustainable technologies this paper analyses current innovation systems in the uk for a range of new and renewable energy technologies and generates policy recommendations for improving the effectiveness of these innovation systems although incentives are in place in the uk to encourage innovation in these technologies system failures or gaps are identified in moving technologies along the innovation chain preventing their successful commercialisation sustained investment will be needed for these technologies to achieve their potential it is argued that a stable and consistent policy framework is required to help create the conditions for this in particular such a framework should be aimed at improving risk reward ratios for demonstration and pre commercial stage technologies this would enhance positive expectations stimulate learning effects leading to cost reductions and increase the likelihood of successful commercialisation