the american business cycle continuity and change in recent decades the american economy has experienced the worst peace time inflation in its history and the highest unemployment rate since the great depression these circumstances have prompted renewed interest in the concept of business cycles which joseph schumpeter suggested are like the beat of the heart of the essence of the organism that displays them in the american business cycle some of the most prominent macroeconomics in the united states focuses on the questions to what extent are business cycles propelled by external shocks how have post 1946 cycles differed from earlier cycles and what are the major factors that contribute to business cycles they extend their investigation in some areas as far back as 1875 to afford a deeper understanding of both economic history and the most recent economic fluctuations seven papers address specific aspects of economic activity consumption investment inventory change fiscal policy monetary behavior open economy and the labor market five papers focus on aggregate economic activity in a number of cases the papers present findings that challenge widely accepted models and assumptions in addition to its substantive findings the american business cycle includes an appendix containing both the first published history of the nber business cycle dating chronology and many previously unpublished historical data series

new tests of the life cycle and tax discounting hypotheses abstract we first test a version of the permanent income consumption function recently suggested by barro the results support the theory except that consumption expenditures show sensitivity to transitory income next we use the consumption model to test the tax discounting hypothesis which is strongly supported this support for tax discounting disagrees with results from some earlier studies using more traditional specifications of the consumption function however we show that when certain obviously inadequate estimation procedures are corrected the traditional models also support tax discounting this uniform support for tax discounting suggests that the sensitivity of consumption to transitory income is not due to liquidity constraints

veto players and the choice of monetary institutions i argue that two types of veto players matter in the choice of monetary institutions party veto players and subnational governments which are strong in federal systems but weak in unitary systems a crucial issue is whether voters can readily identify the manipulation of the economy with party players a second issue concerns the national party veto player s ability to control either fiscal or monetary policy in one party unitary governments identification and control are clear parties where such governments are common prefer flexible exchange rates and dependent central banks in multiparty coalition governments in unitary systems identification is traditionally difficult and the ability to target benefits to specific constituencies under fiscal policy makes fiscal policy autonomy more attractive for coalition governments such governments prefer central banks that are politically independent but that finance government debt under federalism parties that constitute the central government have less control over fiscal policy and they prefer flexible exchange rates subnational governments do not support a dependent central bank that gives more power to the central government

macroeconomic management and the division of powers in brazil perspectives for the nineties the federal authority for macroeconomic management in brazil has experienced a profound change as a result of the institutional changes that culminated with the promulgation of a new federal constitution in october of 1988 this paper examines the implications of the new fiscal arrangements for the exercise of macroeconomic policies by the federal government it examines how recent changes in the division of powers among federal state and local governments in brazil have affected the conditions for macroeconomic management in that country this examination gains an added significance given that the erratic character of macroeconomic performance in brazil has often been blamed on macroeconomic mismanagement it focuses on how federal control of the policy variables has been affected by the latest development in brazilian institutions

the relative importance of foreign and domestic disturbances for aggregate fluctuations in the open economy switzerland 1964 1981 abstract this paper studies whether the advent of floating exchange rates served to insulate switzerland from economic shocks of foreign origin it estimates a vector autoregression comprising four swiss and three world aggregate time series and interprets the results in terms of the properties of the vector moving average representation implied by the estimates the chief finding is that foreign shocks explain most of the systematic variation of the swiss variables in both regimes

when credit bites back using data on 14 advanced countries between 1870 and 2008 we document two key facts of the modern business cycle relative to typical recessions financial crisis recessions are costlier and more credit intensive expansions tend to be followed by deeper recessions in financial crises or otherwise and slower recoveries we use local projection methods to condition on a broad set of macro economic controls to study how past credit accumulation impacts key macro economic variables such as output investment lending interest rates and inflation the facts that we uncover lend support to the idea that financial factors play an important role in the modern business cycle

what price accountability the lucas island model and the politics of monetary policy this paper develops a model of an electoral cycle in inflation and output based on rational inflation expectations and rational retrospective voting voters are heterogeneous and partially informed about aggregate macroeconomic variables they observe precisely how monetary policy stimulates their local economies but their observations of economic activity in other sectors are imprecise voters extract information about the incumbent policymaker s economic competence from cross sectoral spillover effects the incumbent has incentives to generate preelection monetary surprises that stimulate the local economies and generate cross sectoral spillover effects he thereby creates an impression of economic competence and furthers his reelection prospects his policy manipulations are the price of political accountability on a positive note the incumbent is more likely to survive voter scrutiny if he is more competent than the average political candidate

an empirical analysis of the macroeconomic effects of government debt evidence from canada 1989 an empirical analysis of the macroeconomic effects of government debt evidence from canada applied economics vol 21 no 1 pp 113 124

atheoretical macroeconometrics a critique abstract the spurious nature of the restrictions used to identify many macroeconometric models has led some researchers to advocate a style of econometric inquiry that is less dependent on prior theoretical restrictions of the sort that were central to the approach of the cowles commission this development which we call atheoretical macroeconometrics is summarized and evaluated in the current paper it is contrasted with an updated version of the cowles commission approach we conclude that while some of the exercises of atheoretical macroeconometrics are valid those that have attracted the most attention and appear the most innovative exogeneity testing impulse response analysis and policy analysis using estimated vector autoregressions are based on incorrect analysis

causality analysis and multivariate autoregressive modelling with an application to supermarket sales analysis abstract this paper describes a modelling methodology for multivariate stochastic processes the concept of multiple causality is discussed and a procedure to detect multiple causality is suggested the data of a major canadian supermarket is analyzed and a multivariate autoregressive model for this supermarket is constructed and estimated several empirical findings are reported

evaluating the cost of government credit support the oecd context governments throughout the oecd allocate a large share of societies capital and risk through their credit related activities hence accurate cost estimates for credit support programmes are a prerequisite for efficient resource allocation transparency effective management and public oversight i find that oecd governments generally take their cost of capital to be their own borrowing rate rather than using a weighted average cost of capital that includes the cost of risk borne by taxpayers and the general public in their role as equity holders that practice which is institutionalised in government accounting and budgetary rules results in cost estimates for credit support that are significantly downwardly biased relative to a fair value metric that recognises the full cost of risk the size and possible real consequences of those distortions are illustrated with analyses of the european bank for reconstruction and development the european stability mechanism and the tennessee valley authority deborah lucas

price stability and central bank independence discipline credibility and democratic institutions despite mixed empirical evidence in the past two decades central bank independence cbi has been on the rise under the assumption that it ensures price stability using an encompassing theoretical approach and new yearly data for de jure cbi seventy eight countries 1973 2008 we reexamine this relationship distinguishing the role of printing less money discipline from the public s beliefs about the central bank s likely actions credibility democracies differ from dictatorships in the likelihood of political interference and changes to the law because of the presence of political opposition and the freedom to expose government actions cbi in democracies should be directly reflected in lower money supply growth besides being more disciplinarian it also ensures a more robust money demand by reducing inflation expectations and therefore inflation empirical results are robust and support a discipline effect conditioned by political institutions as well as a credibility effect

mass democracy the real reason that brazil ended inflation summary populism and expanded democratic participation often have been painted as the enemy of sane macroeconomics yet brazil s experience suggests possibly benign implications of stable mass democracy for national economic management in developing countries prior to 1930 agrarian elites ruled brazil as political participation gradually expanded policymakers elaborated the regulatory framework of import substituting industrialization isi isi not only generated strong growth but also chronically high and volatile inflation with costs falling most heavily on the disenfranchised a poor majority the advent of mass democracy in the mid 1980s gave the poor a political voice for the first time and plausibly was the crucial cause for the demise of hyperinflation a decade later

inflation and government deficits there is a pronounced positive correlation of inflation andgovernment deficits in the united states since world war ii the purpose of this paper is to test the three leading explanationsof this correlation these three explanations are a a deficitincreases prices through a wealth effect b a deficit results inthe federal reserve purchasing debt thus increasing the moneysupply and prices and c expected inflation increases the deficit which is the change in the nominal value of bonds no supportis found for either of the first two hypotheses the results indi cate that expected government deficits have no significance forfuture inflation since world war ii the united states has experienced large federal government deficits and a sustained peacetime inflation three differentconnections between the deficits and inflation are prominent in theliterature the most direct connection between government deficits and inflationis that by increasing the real value of outstanding bonds and perceived netwealth a deficit can raise total spending and the price level this connec tion is also the most long standing and is suggested by metzler 1951 andpatinkin 1965 for example monetarists generally and buchanan and wagner 1977 in particularhave emphasized a different link between deficits and inflation they sug gest that the federal reserve purchases government bonds when the trea sury sells bonds thus increasing high powered money the money supply and the price level the federal reserve might behave this way for exam ple because it is attempting to hold down interest rates on governmentsecurities when deficits occur recently barro 1978 1979 has put forward a hypothesis that deficitsare a result of inflation rather than inflation being a result of deficits thegovernment deficit is the change in the nominal value of outstanding gov ernment bonds if the anticipated inflation rate increases then the nomi nal value of bonds must increase i e the government will run a deficit tokeep the same anticipated real amount of bonds all three of these possible connections between government deficitsand inflation are consistent with the observed positive correlation of defi cits and inflation the implications however are strikingly different con

on the effectiveness of capital controls the experience of colombia during the 1990s abstract this paper analyzes the effectiveness of capital controls in colombia the evidence presented points towards a relative inability of the measures adopted to reduce the level of capital inflows nonetheless the evidence suggests that non remunerated deposits have been successful in inducing a recomposition of foreign liabilities in favor of long term maturities it is likely that this is a positive result as it has made the country less vulnerable to a reversal in capital flows in this sense controls may be viewed as an effective way of internalizing the negative externality imposed by short term maturities

the political economy of monetary institutions in recent decades countries have experimented with a variety of monetary institutions including alternative exchange rate arrangements and different levels of central bank independence political economists have analyzed the choice of these institutions emphasizing their role in resolving both the time inconsistency problem and dilemmas created by an open economy this first generation work however suffers from a central limitation it studies exchange rate regimes and central bank institutions in isolation from one another without investigating how one monetary institution affects the costs and benefits of the other by contrast the contributors to this volume analyze the choice of exchange rate regime and central bank independence together and in so doing present a second generation of research on the determinants of monetary institutions the articles incorporate both economic and political factors in explaining the choice of monetary institutions investigating how political institutions democratic processes political party competition and interest group pressures affect the balance between economic and distributional policy objectives

trade barriers multinational involvement and intra industry trade panel data evidence from india the article analyses the effects of trade barriers and multinationals on the intensity of intra industry trade iit in a panel of indian manufacturing industries from 1988 to 1999 we find that the intensity of iit increases with the reduction of trade barriers this is expected as greater competition from imports leads individual plants in the domestic industry to specialize in the manufacturing of unique varieties the analysis suggests that horizontal market seeking multinational activities in the domestic industries exert a negative influence on iit this is consistent with the view that horizontal multinationals displace exports to the host country at the same time our results indicate that iit will be stimulated to the extent that the entry of multinationals induces intra industry specialization we also analyse the role of product differentiation and plant level scale economies in determining iit

autoregressive modelling and money income causality detection abstract a step wise procedure based on granger s concept of causality and abaike s final prediction error criterion is suggested as a practical means to identify the order of lags of each variable in a multivariate autoregressive process the model seems useful because it can serve as a reduced form formulation to avoid imposing often spurious or false restrictions of the model it also provides a reasonably powerful test of causality the idea is applied to u s postwar money and income data it is found that between m1 and gnp a bivariate feedback model fits the data best between m2 and gnp a one way causal model from money to income performs better diagnostic checks applied to our model seem to indicate the adequacy of our approach

the measurement and significance of the cyclically adjusted federal budget and debt this paper summarizes new measures of the cyclically adjusted federal budget and federal debt and explores the relationship of these measures of fiscal policy to macroeconomic variables during the last quarter century the first part of the paper discusses the construction of the new measures the second part presents regression evidence suggesting that the cyclically adjusted debt is related to nominal gnp interest rates and the private stock of fixed capital

the political economy of financial internationalization in the developing world in the last decade a growing number of developing countries have opened their financial systems by liberalizing capital flows and the rules governing the international operations of financial intermediaries one explanation of this rush toward greater financial internationalization is that increasing interdependence generates domestic and foreign political pressures for capital account liberalization while we find evidence for that hypothesis we find that the proximate cause in developing countries more frequently is found in balance of payments crises politicians perceive that financial openness in the face of crisis can increase capital inflows by indicating to foreign investors that they will be able to liquidate their investments and by signaling government intentions to maintain fiscal and monetary discipline the argument is explored through case studies of chile indonesia mexico and south korea

government deficits and aggregate demand abstract the evidence presented in this paper indicates that changes in government spending transfers and taxes can have substantial effects on aggregate demand the estimates also indicate that the promise of future social security benefits significantly reduces private saving each the basic implications of the so called ricardian equivalence theorem is contradicted by the data the results are consistent with the more general view of the effects of fiscal actions and fiscal expectations that is described in the paper

interest rates and expected future budget deficits in the united states several recent empirical studies have found no evidence of a positive association between interest rates and current and past budget deficits one possible explanation for this finding is that interest rates are related much more to the expectation of future budget deficits than to current and past budget deficits in this paper i investigate whether this explanation is valid finding no evidence that it is section ii briefly formulates and discusses the hypothesis under consideration stating some of its implications section iii presents the results of regressing the commercial paper rate moody s aaa bond rate and the ex post real commercial paper rate on current and past government spending budget deficits and real money supplies the regressions have been fitted to the entire sample of monthly data spanning the period between june 1908 and march 1984 and to 11

government debt government spending and private sector behavior a current period tax reduction financed by issuing government debt shifts the timing of tax collection from the current period to the future if the future taxes implied by government debt are not fully perceived and discounted by the private sector there will be a net wealth effect that increases private sector consumption thus reducing capital accumulation and growth if on the other hand the implied future taxes are perceived and discounted by the private sector the current period tax reduction will be used to increase private saving to pay for the future taxes and government debt will be absorbed without any real effects on the economy the effects of government spending financed by current period taxation also depend upon private sector perceptions 2 if the benefits of government spending are ignored private sector consumption will decrease in accordance with the reduction in permanent disposable income to the extent that government spending is on consumption type goods that are perceived as substitutes for privately provided consumption goods there will be a relatively greater reduction in private sector consumption to the extent that government spending is on investment type goods yielding future goods and services that are perceived as substitutes for future privately provided consumption goods there will be a relatively smaller reduction in private sector consumption the standard approach to modeling private sector consumption saving behavior involves a rather asymmetric set of assumptions as to how the private sector perceives the various elements of government fiscal policy 3 current period taxes are assumed to be fully perceived but current period government spending is implicitly assumed to be completely ignored by the private sector in considering permanent personal disposable income the private sector is assumed to be forward looking in its assessment of income and taxation the stock of government debt is nevertheless included as part of the stock of private wealth the implicit assumption associate professor of economics graduate school of business university of chicago 1101 east 58th street chicago il 60637 i thank eugene fama levis kochin michael mussa paul evans and an anonymous referee for helpful comments i am particularly grateful to daniel benjamin for contributing many hours of discussion and laura lahaye who was a research assistant and valuable adviser on earlier drafts the theoretical debate on the burden of the debt has been long standing gerald o driscoll 1977 documents ricardo s nineteenth century position robert barro 1974 reopened the debate by introducing the fundamental issue of intergenerational transfers also discussed in merton miller and charles upton 1974 the empirical side of the debate was initiated by levis kochin s 1974 attempt to test for the effects of deficits on consumption and by martin feldstein s 1974 attempt to test for the effects of social security wealth on consumption other empirical contributions include jess yawitz and laurence meyer 1976 myself 1978 and j earnest tanner 1978 1979 with respect to the effects of government deficits and debt and barro 1978 michael darby 1979 and dean leimer and selig lesnoy 1982 with respect to social security wealth see also interesting recent papers by john seater 1982 who generates detailed tests of the effects of deficits and debt on consumption charles plosser 1982 who explores the effects of government spending and debt shocks on interest rates and feldstein 1982 who attempts tests similar to some in this paper see fn 29 2martin bailey s 1962 1971 development of the effects of government spending on private consumption and aggregate economic activity is the seminal contribution paul david and john scadding 1974 extend bailey s ideas and provide some supporting empirical evidence more recently willem buiter 1977 and myself 1978 developed models based on bailey s earlier work barro 1981 has an interesting paper on related issues see also david aschauer 1982 3the standard approach incorporates fiscal policy through the concept of personal disposable income and by including the stock of government debt as part of personal wealth see for example the empirical specification of albert ando and franco modigliani 1963 which has been the basis of most empirical consumption studies since and feldstein 1974 for one of the more influential papers based on the ando modigliani specification

the political economy of ownership housing markets and the welfare state the major economic story of the last decade has been the surge and collapse of house prices worldwide yet political economists have had little to say about how this critical phenomenon affects citizens welfare and their demands from government this article develops a novel theoretical argument linking housing prices to social policy preferences and policy outcomes i argue that homeowners experiencing house price appreciation will become less supportive of redistribution and social insurance policies since increased house prices both increase individuals permanent income and the value of housing as self supplied insurance against income loss political parties of the right will responding to these preferences cut social spending substantially during housing booms i test these propositions using both microdata on social preferences from panel surveys in the usa the uk and a cross country survey of 29 countries and macrodata of national social spending for 18 countries between 1975 and 2001

foreign banks trends and impact over the past two decades foreign banks have become much more important in domestic financial intermediation heightening the need to understand their behavior we introduce a new comprehensive database made publicly available on bank ownership including the home country of foreign banks for 5 324 banks in 137 countries over the period 1995 2009 we document large increases in foreign bank presence in many countries but with substantial heterogeneity in terms of host and banks home countries bilateral investment patterns and bank characteristics in terms of impact we document that the relation between private credit and foreign bank presence importantly depends on host country and banks characteristics specifically foreign banks only seem to have a negative impact on credit in low income countries in countries where they have a limited market share where enforcing contracts is costly and where credit information is limited available and when they come from distant home countries this shows that accounting for heterogeneity including bilateral ownership is crucial to better understand the implications of foreign bank ownership

international competitiveness and industry pricing in canadian manufacturing this paper examines the effect of the international competitiveness of home producers on their pricing evidence based on the 1970 75 period supports the claim that in the canadian manufacturing sector domestic prices are set in accordance with a mixture of two pricing hypotheses the eastman stykolt pricing hypothesis esph and the monopolistic pricing hypothesis mph however in the 1975 80 period when their competitiveness increased prices were set solely according to the mph for the purposes of assessing the impact of free trade this paper shows the circumstances under which each or a mixture of these pricing hypotheses employed in the harris cox model on the gains from freer trade would be appropriate

public inflation aversion and the political economy of macroeconomic policymaking do the macroeconomic priorities of citizens differ across countries if so what accounts for this variation and what are its consequences for explanations of the choice of monetary institutions macroeconomic policy and international monetary cooperation this article uses survey data from twenty advanced economies to examine individual preferences about macroeconomic priorities the analysis establishes three key findings first the results suggest that economic context defined by inflation and unemployment performance has a substantial impact on the public s economic objectives in a way that is broadly consistent with the specification of utility loss functions in the theoretical political economy literature second the results suggest that there is significant cross country variation in inflation aversion controlling for economic context third some of this variation is accounted for by national level factors affecting the aggregate costs of inflation and unemployment these results have significant implications for optimal monetary policymaking the explanation of variation in economic outcomes and for accounts of the choice of institutional frameworks for policymaking i thank the bank of england the center for basic research in the social sciences and the institution for social and policy studies for research support and jim alt andrew bailey bill bernhard lawrence broz john freeman jeff frieden jim granato shigeo hirano david lake jeff lax simon price rose razaghian ron rogowski david stasavage gabriel sterne mike tomz jim vreeland the editor and two anonymous reviewers for helpful comments all views expressed are those of the author and do not represent those of the bank of england

the domestic politics of banking regulation this article seeks to ground financial regulatory choices in domestic politics based on evidence from twenty two industrialized countries we argue that electoral rules specifically the extent to which they are centrifugal or centripetal have a significant effect on whether the banks or their consumers pay for the security of the banking system moreover despite the homogenizing effects of global financial integration the political dynamics generated by these electoral rules continue to shape the nature and extent of prudential regulations that countries adopt in the place of banking cartels

the economic record of the 1997 2010 labour government an assessment we consider the economic record of the 1997 2010 labour government in the uk following a brief review of the government s inheritance from its predecessor we review the assessments made in the other papers in this issue of the oxford review of economic policy the change in the macroeconomic policy framework which apparently worked well for a decade but was then struck by the global financial crisis labour market social security and education policies and inequality public investment and public service delivery especially health and corporate taxation we discuss the constraints under which the government operated how much it broke with the past and the new frameworks it introduced we identify strengths and weaknesses and draw lessons from the government s record about the need to remain receptive to other and critical ideas on the one hand and the need for labour to spell out the kind of economy and society it wants to see develop on the other copyright 2013 oxford university press

the origins of central banking solutions to the free rider problem certain domestic institutions are sources of international power by way of their abilities to encourage investment and to mobilize social resources in wartime for example states with democratic institutions almost always win the wars they e ght a regularity known as the democratic advantage 1 this result is intriguing since it rests on intuition about the effects of military competition on domestic institutions rivalry among states may put pressure on sovereigns to provide the political foundations for secure markets in order to enlarge future military capabilities in this article i address the role of war in inducing domestic institutions that allowed governments to credibly commit to promises to pay their debts a probable source of democracies edge in war rather than investigate the entire range of protections affected by democratic institutions a life s endeavor as the work of douglass north attests i focus on a single e nancial element of the reforms the innovation of central banking britain s superior e nancial economic and military performance after 1689 rested in large part on the establishment of the bank of england 2 the central bank provided a commitment technology that improved the government s ability to borrow a need impelled by intense military competition 3 my motivation derives from puzzles concerning the origins and the diffusion of credibility enhancing institutions like central banks institutions resolve collective action problems but institutions themselves are public goods meaning that their origins are subject to the same dilemmas they are meant to resolve 4 what then explains the incentives of self interested and free riding individuals to contribute to

labour s record on financial regulation in 1997 the new labour government launched major initiatives in the area of financial regulation setting up the financial services authority as a comprehensive regulatory body supported by the legislative framework of the financial services and markets act 2000 we evaluate the labour government s record on financial regulation in terms of its achievements and failures especially in dealing with the global financial crisis that started in 2007 while we identify some clear flaws in regulatory design and enforcement our evaluation highlights some inherent difficulties of financial regulation

exchange rate regimes and independent central banks a correlated choice of imperfectly credible institutions theory and empirical evidence show that low inflation is a precondition for economic growth independent central banks and fixed exchange rates are institutional mechanisms that help keep inflation low by lending monetary policy credibility to governments however the two institutions are commonly analyzed as substitutes that tie the hands of inflation prone governments thus the literature has difficulties describing why governments would adopt both institutions and the interaction between them this paper presents a model that allows policymakers the simultaneous choice of monetary institutions and shows that imperfectly credible institutions will overlap when exchange rates are fixed but adjustable and central bank independence is not fully ascertainable governments choose both institutions more generally the paper generates hypotheses about the conditions that make fixed exchange rates and independent central banks complements or substitutes thus contributing to an explanation of the diversity of global monetary institutions in the post bretton woods period

globalization pressures and the state the worldwide spread of central bank independence the authors examine the impact of globalization on state structures in the specific instance of the central bank following the world system world society and neoinstitutional perspectives in sociology they assume that states are in cultural political and economic competition with each other thereby seeking to maintain their position and status frequently by adopting organizational forms or practices that make them isomorphic with their environment the authors predict that countries boost the independence of their central bank from the political power as their exposure to foreign trade investment and multilateral lending increases they also model the cross national dynamic process of diffusion of central bank independence by examining the impact of cohesive and role equivalent trade relationships between countries they find support for their hypotheses with information on 71 countries between 1990 and 2000

the ricardian equivalence hypothesis abstract this paper analyzes the effects of government debt and provides a test of the ricardian equivalence hypothesis for the canadian economy the empirical evidence for the period 1964 ii 1984 iv indicates that the ricardian equivalence hypothesis cannot be rejected

new evidence on deficits and interest rates it is generally assumed on theoretical grounds that increases in government borrowing cause interest rates to rise 1 but empirical support for this proposition has been weak at best several recent papers have uncovered no strong relationship between deficits and short terrn interest rates however the research reported here indicates that although the relationship between deficits and short terrn interest rates may be tenuous there is strong evidence that larger deficits are associated with higher long terrn interest rates much of the debate about whether there is a strong relationship between federal borrowing and interest rates concerns the crowding out question this controversy centers on the direct and indirect eilffects of government fiscal actions on private spending these effects have been well documented in the theoretical literature e g buiter 1977 carlson and spencer 1975 blinder and solow 1973 many of the crowding out effects studied in this literature depend on the connection between government borrowing and high interest rates friedman 1978 meyer 1975 silber 1970 this is called short run indirect crowding out and may occur when increases in government spending and borrowing cause interest rates to rise which then may cause private spending to be reduced buiter 1977 pp 310 13

mobile capital domestic institutions and electorally induced monetary and fiscal policy the literature on global integration and national policy autonomy often ignores a central result from open economy macroeconomics capital mobility constrains monetary policy when the exchange rate is fixed and fiscal policy when the exchange rate is flexible similarly examinations of the electoral determinants of monetary and fiscal policy typically ignore international pressures altogether we develop a formal model to analyze the interaction between fiscal and monetary policymakers under various exchange rate regimes and the degrees of central bank independence we test the model using data from oecd countries we find evidence that preelectoral monetary expansions occur only when the exchange rate is flexible and central bank independence is low preelectoral fiscal expansions occur when the exchange rate is fixed we then explore the implications of our model for arguments that emphasize the partisan sources of macroeconomic policy and for the conduct of fiscal policy after economic and monetary union in europe

a political explanation of variations in central bank independence although central banks possess a similar function across the industrial democracies their institutional structures their levels of independence differ greatly my explanation of this variation emphasizes the informational asymmetries of monetary policymaking government ministers have informational advantages in the policy process potentially creating conflicts with backbench legislators and in a multiparty government coalition partners an independent central bank can help alleviate these conflicts politicians will choose an independent bank 1 if government ministers party legislators and coalition partners have different monetary policy incentives and 2 if government ministers fear that party legislators and coalition partners will withdraw their support over a policy dispute i statistically test the argument against the cross national variation of central bank institutions i also use the theoretical framework to examine episodes of institutional choice and reform in germany britain and italy

fiscal policy and private investment expenditure a study of australia and the united states the effect of government spending on private sector s investment and profitability is examined within the context of an open economy macro model the empirical results of the study indicate that the private investment expenditure in australia and the united states is crowed out by government investment and government consumption respectively these results are in conflict with the hypothesis of fiscal neutrality in addition the empirical results of corporate profitability provide no support for the complementary relationship between public and private investment expenditure

government financing decisions and asset returns abstract this paper presents an empirical investigation of the relation between government financing decisions and asset returns in particular the focus is on whether a substitution of debt financing for tax financing of a given level of expenditures is associated with an increase in interest rates the paper brings a different perspective to empirical investigations of government fiscal policies by examining the response of asset prices in an efficient capital market to such policies rather than focusing on aggregate consumption behavior the results are consistent with the idea that asset prices are unrelated to how the government finances its expenditures the results however also indicate that the capital market is not indifferent with respect to the level of government expenditures as higher interest rates are associated with increases in government purchases

unit roots tests evidence from the foreign exchange futures market in this paper tests are conducted for the presence of unit roots in the autoregression representation of foreign exchange currency futures price series the results obtained from five different currency futures over the 1977 1983 period suggestthat foreign currency futures rates have autoregressive representations with a singleunit root i e borderline nonstationarity in view of this result it appears thatthe process generating the natural logarithm of foreign currency futures rates may well be approximated by random walks

the governance of financial supervision recent developments this paper examines the evolution of financial supervision as a policy tool over the last three decades with a focus on the issues raised by the global crisis it considers a sample of advanced and emerging economies to discuss the four main questions debated in the literature and addressed in the economic policy arena the architecture of supervision the role of the central bank as supervisor the governance of supervision and financial supervision vs the internationalization of finance our survey finds that on each of these issues theory and practice do not offer clear cut answers and unambiguous optimal solutions at the same time the most promising approach is to tackle financial supervision as a principal agent problem where economics and political economy approaches must be used in combination to improve both positive and normative analyses of supervisory governance

deficit announcements and interest rates despite the fact that the most theoretical analyses with the notable exception of the ricardian equivalence approach indicate that increased deficits cause interest rates to rise the empirical evidence is at best inconclusive 1 in this note the relationship between interest rates and deficits is examined with the announcement effect methodology which has not previously been used in this context we find evidence of a positive relationship between unanticipated announcements of the projected federal government deficit and interest rates in an efficient market information about any determinant of interest rates should be quickly incorporated into observed rates thus when information about the size of the deficits is released a relatively quick impact on interest rates can be anticipated more specifically if an increase in the deficit is in fact associated with higher interest rates then an unanticipated announcement of a larger deficit should lead to a response in financial markets which increases interest rates this paper provides evidence on the announcement effects of information on the deficit the advantage of the announcement effect approach is that it precludes the necessity of specifying a structural model for interest rates 2 projections of current and future federal government deficits are made on a regular basis by both the office of managementand budget omb and the congressional budget office cbo and receive wide attention in the financial press these projections provide data that are related to the change in interest rate on government securities from the day before the announcement to the end of the announcement day the macroeconomic hypothesis underlying this investigation is simply that an increase in the current or future deficit leads to an increase in yields on government securities in anticipation of higher levels of debt financing in a rational expectations framework an announcement of higher future deficits will lead to a current increase in interest rates in anticipation of future financing thus the examination of announcement effects enables us to substantiate a relationship between interest rates and deficits without encountering the econometric problems of reduced form modeling section i begins with a description of the data this is followed by a discussion of the methodology in section ii section iii presents the empirical results this is followed by our conclusions in section iv