harvests and business cycles in nineteenth century america most major american industrial business cycles from around 1880 to the first world war were caused by fluctuations in the size of the cotton harvest due to economically exogenous factors such as weather wheat and corn harvests did not affect industrial production nor did the cotton harvest before the late 1870s the unique effect of the cotton harvest in this period can be explained as an essentially monetary phenomenon the result of interactions between harvests international gold flows and high powered money demand under america s goldstandard regime of 1879 1914

the efficiency of the dollar sterling gold standard 1890 1908 the gold standard in 1890 1908 period was efficient by any criterion the number of gold point violations was small violations did not persist gold movements occurred in the predictable profitable direction in response to violations and the mean absolute exchange rate for 1881 1900 was at exactly half the average of the gold points the actions of the bank of england and u s treasury in manipulating gold points were consistent with the rules of the game and in fact facilitated the efficiency of the gold standard in contrast the operations of banking syndicates were of a nature to generate inefficiencies but the evidence is that they did not have this effect

exchange rate target zones a survey of the literature this work selectively reviews the literature on exchange rate target zones and their theoretical and empirical methodologies and examines whether they can be used to clarify to what extent this type of exchange rate regime could contribute to greater exchange rate stability we discuss the main contributions of the first and second generations of exchange rate target zone models in an attempt to reconcile the poor empirical performance of the krugman model with the reality of exchange rate target zone regimes this line of research integrates target zones with alternative underlying economic models such as imperfect credibility intra marginal interventions and sticky price models it was thus possible to understand the correlations observed between the exchange rate its fundamentals determinants and the interest rate differential and to explain the fact that the statistical distribution of the exchange rate is hump shaped rather than u shaped this implies that the initial emphasis of target zone models on nonlinearities honeymoon effect smooth pasting and marginal interventions has vanished exchange rate target zones are better described as similar to managed floating regimes with intra marginal interventions with some marginal interventions when the exchange rate reaches the edges of the floating band

user cost changes unemployment and home ownership evidence from spain this paper develops a macroeconomic model that permits analysis of the relationship between unemployment and home ownership rates using aggregate data at the provincial level within spain besides other influential variables such as the changes of the relative user costs of owning and renting or household life cycle attributes the model constructed permits the authors to question the evidence of oswald nickell and layard and partially of green and hendershott that home ownership leads to higher unemployment the results point out that taking into account the simultaneity determination issue and reducing the omitted variable bias a higher unemployment discourages home ownership

the operations of the bank of england 1890 1908 a dynamic probit approach this paper analyzes the workings of the pre world war i gold standard using weekly data and a dynamic probit econometric technique the authors evidence sheds light on three potentially conflicting motivations underlying bank rate changes profitability convertibility and concern for home trade the conflict among these goals manifests itself in the bank s asymmetric responses to inflows and outflows of gold and in the bank s asymmetric responses to changes in market interest rates the authors results are consistent with the view that central bank cooperation played an important role in the workings of the gold standard copyright 1995 by ohio state university press

why exchange rate bands monetary independence in spite of fixed exchange rates abstract the paper argues that the reason real world fixed exchange rate regimes usually have finite bands instead of completely fixed exchange rates between realignments is that exchange rate bands counter to the textbook result give central banks some monetary independence even with free international capital mobility the nature and amount of monetary independence is specified informally and in a formal model and quantified with swedish krona data altogether the amount of monetary independence appears sizable for instance an increase in the swedish krona band from zero to about 2 percent may reduce the krona interest rate s standard deviation by about a half

target zones and exchange rate dynamics this paper develops a simple model of exchange rate behavior under a target zone regime it shows that the expectation that monetary policy will be adjusted to limit exchange rate variation affects exchange rate behavior even when the exchange rate lies inside the zone and is thus not being defended actively somewhat surprisingly the analysis of target zones turns out to have a strong formal similarity to problems in option pricing and investment under uncertainty

local house prices parental background and young adults homeownership in england and wales this is the author accepted manuscript the final version is available from sage via https doi org 10 1177 0042098016668121

which are the real determinants of tenure a comparative analysis of different models of the tenure choice of a house tenure choice is closely bound to other vital individual decisions of great importance not only for the individual but also for the country in which he or she resides the present paper includes a comparison of the different approaches that have been used in the economic literature in the analysis of the individual s housing tenure choice according to their dependent variable the different models can be divided into those whose dependent variable is tenure classical models recent movers models and sequential models and those in which the dependent variable is transition from renting to the position of ownership duration models and choice based models results show the best performance for the models in which the variable to be explained is the transition from renting to ownership and highlight real determinants of tenure life cycle variables and transition life cycle variables prices and transaction costs finally marital status stands out as the variable with the highest incidence

a survey of recent empirical work concerning auctions in this paper the authors survey some recent empirical work concerning auctions first outlining two complementary approaches to the empirical analysis of auctions and then discussing several recent developments in the econometric analysis of field data concerning auctions

interest rate interactions in the classical gold standard 1880 1914 was there any monetary independence this paper examines an hypothesis of svensson 1994 journal of monetary economics 33 157 199 that a credible target zone can confer on a country a degree of independence in the operation of its monetary policy even when exchange rates are fixed we test this hypothesis for the classical gold standard using a newly created monthly data base for the period 1880 1913 building on the recently noted finding that the classical gold standard represented a credible well behaved target zone system we propose a number of ways of testing the svensson model our main finding is that the classical gold standard did indeed confer some independence in the operation of monetary policy for participating countries this would seem to have an important bearing on the kind of institutional framework required for a modern day target zone to function effectively and in particular to weather speculative attacks

on the behaviour of uk money velocity prices and output in the gold standard period 1871 1913 this article provides evidence in support of cointegration among the uk money supply real output and the price level in the gold standard period 1871 1913 the series respond to eliminate short run deviations from the long run equilibrium relation of the equation of exchange cointegration is also observed between the uk and us price levels with the former also responding to eliminate short run deviations from the long run equilibrium relation among the two price levels our results for the components of the quantity equation support arguments that the bank of england moved short term interest rates in response to changes in domestic economic activity taken to be an indicator of future changes in its gold reserve position our evidence concerning the uk us price levels supports the rising position of the united states as an economic power during this period

rules of the game during the international gold standard england and germany abstract the paper suggests an alternative framework to test hypotheses about central bank policy rules during the international gold standard this framework is inspired by work of mundell 1968 on optimal central bank policies and more recent literature on the theory of economic policy which stems from luca s 1976 critique empirical tests obtained from this approach are quite different from those appearing in the empirical literature on the gold standard the results of the tests indicate that the bank of england was not optimally targeting international gold flows inthe case of the rechsbank the hyphothesis that international gold flows were optimally targeted is not rejected at the 5 per level thus the data suggest that the reichsbank was following the rules of the game whereas the bank of england was not

taxing residential housing capital this paper discusses the main aspects of the taxation of housing drawing on general principles of optimal taxation it focuses on the role of the property tax in achieving neutrality between rental and owner occupied housing assuming that landlords are taxed according to a neutral profits tax it follows that the property tax should be based on the rate of interest the paper discusses how the tax rate could be adjusted to account for the lack of effective taxation of capital gains the double taxation of dividends and the differences in the cost of labour between rental and owner occupied housing in most oecd countries the combined effect of the different housing taxes amounts to a tax subsidy to owner occupied housing it is demonstrated how this subsidy has been reduced in sweden as in many other countries in the past decade as a result of tax reforms and a lower rate of inflation the subsidy has effects on consumption patterns saving capital accumulation the distribution of welfare across gener

houses and or jobs ownership and the labour market in belgian districts isebaert d heylen f and smolders c houses and or jobs ownership and the labour market in belgian districts regional studies a j oswald argues that high rates of homeownership may imply inferior labour market outcomes using a panel of forty two belgian districts since the 1970s and accounting for other key determinants of employment this paper confirms the oswald hypothesis a 1 percentage point rise in the rate of ownership in a district implies a statistically significant fall in the employment rate by about 0 35 percentage points this negative effect declines in the fraction of the high skilled in a district the results underscore the importance of controlling for unobserved district specific fixed effects and common time effects and of appropriately dealing with endogeneity

conducting the international orchestra bank of england leadership under the classical gold standard abstract a large literature assigns to the bank of england a leadership role in the management of the classical gold standard this paper documents the exceptional behavior of the bank of england s discount rate in particular that it tended to lead discount rates abroad it then develops a game theoretic analysis of central bank interaction under the classical gold standard sterling s reserve currency status is shown to provide a rationale for stackelberg leadership by the bank of england contrary to popular notions however britain s foreign creditor status does not provide a basis for the bank of england s leadership strategy

target zones in theory and history credibility efficiency and policy autonomy abstract an experiment with an exchange rate band in austria hungary in the early 20th century provides a rare opportunity to discuss critical aspects of the theory of target zones providing a new derivation of the target zone model as a set of nested hypotheses the inference is drawn that policy credibility and market efficiency were paramount in the success of the austro hungarian experience

parental wealth and first time homeownership a cohort study of family background and young adults housing situation in sweden this paper investigates whether family background seems to have any influence on first time homeownership recent studies have indicated that it has become more difficult to become established in the housing market and such situations may increase the importance of parental wealth in this study parental wealth is estimated as family background information on parents homeownership father s socioeconomic status and single parenting unique cohort data for three birth cohorts suggest that there is a significant cohort effect in young adults tenure decision furthermore the results imply that parents homeownership has become a more important predictor of the transition to first time homeownership for those young adults facing increasing problems in the housing market

deflation and monetary policy in a historical perspective remembering the past or being condemned to repeat it inflation is currently low and stable in industrialized countries but might deflation replace inflation as a major policy concern we present a broad cross country historical study of deflation over the past two centuries in order to shed light on current policy challenges in the light of the relevant theoretical approaches we empirically characterize good bad and ugly deflations assess similarities between the current low inflation environment and that of the gold standard period and discuss lessons from the historical record as to policies to escape undesirable deflation and the relative merits of interest rate and monetary instruments michael bordo and andrew filardo

a retrospective on the bretton woods system lessons for international monetary reform at the close of the second world war when industrialized nations faced serious trade and financial imbalances delegates from forty four countries met in bretton woods new hampshire in order to reconstruct the international monetary system over the next 25 years with currencies fixed to the american dollar world trade expanded vigorously inflation remained moderate and national income in industrialized countries rose faster than during any other period in this volume three generations of scholars and policy makers some of whom participated in the 1944 conference consider how the bretton woods system contributed to economic stability and rapid growth between 1945 and 1971 and discuss the future of the international monetary system in light of the bretton woods experience since president richard m nixon ended the bretton woods system in 1971 exchange rates have exhibited increasing flexibility after twenty years of floating rates however there is considerable interest in once again limiting exchange rate flexibility the apparent success of the european monetary system a fixed rate arrangement loosely based on the postwar system and the prospect of european monetary unification increase interest in a new internationally stable exchange rate moreover some academics and government officials see fixed rates as a way to help eastern europe and the former soviet union cope with pressing economic and political problems the economists historians political scientists and policy makers who contribute to this volume relate the bretton woods system to earlier fixed rate schemes and consider the political background of the original new hampshire meeting using recenteconomic theory for example work on time consistency and credibility they explore adjustment liquidity and transmission under the system the way it affected developing countries and the role of the international monetary fund in maintaining a stable rate the authors examine th

review of a history of the federal reserve volume i 2003 by allan h meltzer abstract this is a book review of a history of the federal reserve volume i 2003 by allan h meltzer

demographic change and the housing market evidence from a comparison of scotland and england this paper examines the impact of demographic change on the housing market more specifically a difference in differences methodology is used to explore the effect of population decline and population ageing on house prices in scotland and england wales the analysis suggests that population decline and population ageing put downward pressure on prices therefore the long run trend of rising real house prices can not be assumed to continue into the future particularly in scotland

violations of the gold points 1890 1908 evidence is presented that the gold standard system was inefficient in two ways 1 gold point violations sometimes persisted for long periods indicating that profit opportunities were not always eliminated quickly 2 following gold point violations gold occasionally flowed in unprofitable directions it is argued that government interference in the workings of the system was a source of these inefficiencies this suggests that the gold standard did not completely restrict the discretionary power of monetary authorities if present day gold standard advocates seek to eliminate discretionary monetary policy revival of the traditional gold standard is probably insufficient to attain their goal

analysis of the dynamics of housing tenure choice in britain abstract the study uses data from the 1958 birth cohort collected in the british national child development study to model the dynamics of people s first entry to either owner occupation or tenancy in social housing the two major tenures in britain the effects of lifetime earnings prospects family background a person s own spells of unemployment the regional unemployment rate and regional relative house prices on the timing and pattern of first entry are estimated in the context of a competing risk hazard model it also shows that given the observed matrix of subsequent tenure transitions these impacts on the timing and destination of first major tenure also have important effects on the number of years which a person spends in each tenure over his her life

child auctions in nineteenth century sweden an analysis of price differences during the nineteenth century destitute and or orphan swedish children were boarded out as a part of that time s public assistance the families to which they were allocated were determined by means of english auctions this paper studies the price differences among such children using empirical data from 601 auctions price is regressed on variables related both to the buyer and to the child the results suggest that variables related to the children s characteristics were important and that the willingness to take a poor or orphan child was dependent on the foster parents uses for a child in the household children who were old enough to be used as shepherd boys or girls were easily placed it was worse with those who were feeble incapacitated blind sick mentally deranged or confined to their beds they were useless to farmers and others as a rule the most miserable were boarded out to the poorest of the non property owners julius ejdestam 1969 the poor s sweden my translation