to float or to fix evidence on the impact of exchange rate regimes on growth we study the relationship between exchange rate regimes and economic growth for a sample of 183 countries over the post bretton woods period using a new de facto classification of regimes based on the actual behavior of the relevant macroeconomic variables in contrast with previous studies we find that for developing countries less flexible exchange rate regimes are associated with slower growth as well as with greater output volatility for industrial countries regimes do not appear to have any significant impact on growth the results are robust to endogeneity corrections and a number of alternative specifications borrowed from the growth literature

a faith based initiative meets the evidence does a flexible exchange rate regime really facilitate current account adjustment it is often asserted that a flexible exchange rate regime would facilitate current account adjustment using data on over 170 countries over the 1971 2005 period we examine this assertion systematically we find no strong robust or monotonic relationship between exchange rate regime flexibility and the rate of current account reversion even after accounting for the degree of economic development and trade and capital account openness this finding presents a challenge to the friedman 1953 hypothesis and a popular policy recommendation by international financial institutions

on corporate borrowing credit spreads and economic activity in emerging economies an empirical investigation abstract we document a considerable increase in foreign financing by the corporate sector in emerging economies emes since the early 2000s mainly in the form of bond issuance and claim that it has opened up an important channel by which external financial factors can drive economic activity in these economies such claim is substantiated by a strong negative relationship between economic activity and an external financial indicator that we construct for several emes using micro level data on spreads of bonds issued by emes corporations in foreign capital markets three salient features characterize such a negative relationship first the financial indicator has considerable predictive power on future economic activity in these economies even after controlling for other potential drivers of business cycles such as movements in sovereign spreads and global financial risk among others second on average an identified adverse shock to the financial indicator generates a large and protracted fall of real output growth in these economies and up to 14 of its forecast error variance is associated to this shock lastly fluctuations in this indicator also respond strongly to shocks in global financial risk emanating from world capital markets thereby implying that changes in corporate spreads also serve as a powerful propagating mechanism of the effect of changes in global investors risk appetite in emerging markets

bond finance bank credit and aggregate fluctuations in an open economy corporate sectors in emerging markets have noticeably increased their reliance on foreign financing presumably reflecting low global interest rates the evidence also shows a rebalancing from bank loans towards bonds to study these developments we develop a dynamic open economy model where these modes of finance are determined endogenously the model replicates the stylized facts following a drop in world interest rates in particular rebalancing towards bonds occurs because bank credit becomes relatively more expensive reflecting the scarcity of bank equity more generally the model is suitable for studying interactions between modes of finance and the macroeconomy

international credit supply shocks abstract house prices and exchange rates can potentially amplify the expansionary effect of capital inflows we first set up a model of collateralized borrowing in domestic and foreign currency with international financial intermediation in which a change in leverage of global intermediaries leads to an international credit supply increase in this environment we illustrate how house price increases and exchange rates appreciations contribute to fueling the boom by inflating the value of collateral we then document empirically in a panel var model for 50 advanced and emerging countries estimated with quarterly data from 1985 to 2012 that an increase in the leverage of us broker dealers also leads to an increase in cross border credit flows a house price and consumption boom a real exchange rate appreciation and a current account deterioration consistent with the transmission in the model finally we study the sensitivity of the consumption and asset price response to such a shock and show that country differences are associated with the level of the maximum loan to value ratio and the share of foreign currency denominated credit

downward nominal wage rigidity and the case for temporary infl ation in the eurozone abstract since the onset of the great recession in peripheral europe nominal hourly wages have not fallen from the high levels they had reached during the boom years this in spite of widespread in

payments systems and monetary policy abstract a dynamic spatial model is constructed where there is a role for money and for centralized payments arrangements and where there are aggregate fluctuations driven by fluctuations in aggregate productivity with decentralized monetary exchange and no centralized payments arrangements there is price level indeterminacy and the equilibrium allocation is inefficient a private clearinghouse arrangement improves efficiency but produces a real indeterminacy the pricing of daylight overdrafts is irrelevant for the equilibrium allocation efficiency is achieved with a zero nominal interest rate on overnight central bank lending or through private overnight interbank lending

money credit and banking in monetary models where agents are subject to trading shocks there is typically an ex post inefficiency since some agents are holding idle balances while others are cash constrained this problem creates a role for financial intermediaries such as banks who accept nominal deposits and make nominal loans in general financial intermediation improves the allocation the gains in welfare come from the payment of interest on deposits and not from relaxing borrowers liquidity constraints we also demonstrate that when credit rationing occurs increasing the rate of inflation can be welfare improving

monetary policy and exchange rate volatility in a small open economy we lay out a small open economy version of the calvo sticky price model and show how the equilibrium dynamics can be reduced to a simple representation in domestic inflation and the output gap we use the resulting framework to analyse the macroeconomic implications of three alternative rulebased policy regimes for the small open economy domestic inflation and cpi based taylor rules and an exchange rate peg we show that a key difference among these regimes lies in the relative amount of exchange rate volatility that they entail we also discuss a special case for which domestic inflation targeting constitutes the optimal policy and where a simple second order approximation to the utility of the representative consumer can be derived and used to evaluate the welfare losses associated with the suboptimal rules

a search theoretic approach to monetary economics the essential function of money is its role as a medium of exchange the authors formalize this idea using a search theoretic equilibrium model of the exchange process that captures the double coincidence of wants problem with pure barter one advantage of the framework described here is that it is very tractable the authors also show that the model can be used to addre ss some substantive issues in monetary economics including the potenti al welfare enhancing role of money the interaction between specializat ion and monetary exchange and the possibility of equilibria with multip le fiat currencies copyright 1993 by american economic association

banking crises and exchange rate regimes is there a link the authors investigate the links between banking crises and exchange rate regimes using a comprehensive data set that includes developed and developing countries over the last two decades in particular they examine whether the choice of exchange rate regime affects the likelihood cost and duration of banking crises empirical results indicate that adopting a fixed exchange rate diminishes the likelihood of a banking crisis in developing countries but once a banking crisis occurs its real costs in terms of forgone output growth are higher for countries with more stringent exchange rate requirements the duration of crises seems not to be affected by exchange rate policy instead it is influenced mainly by the size of the credit boom before the crisis

a divisible search model of fiat money this paper extends the kiyotaki wright search model of fiat money to allow for divisible money and goods the extension allows me to examine the standard issues in monetary economics such as the neutrality and superneutrality of money by severing the artificial link in the kiyotaki wright model between the money supply and the number of money holders it is shown that money is neutral but not superneutral money growth generates a trading opportunity effect it changes the fraction of different agents in the economy and hence changes the probability with which agents have a successful match in addition money growth has a negative effect on the real money balance that is familiar in walrasian monetary models the balance of the two effects can imply a positive optimal money growth rate

search bargaining money and prices the goal of this paper is to extend existing search theoretic models of fiat money which until now have assumed that the price level is exogenous by explicitly incorporating bilateral bargaining this allows us to determine the price level endogenously and leads to additional insights concerning the role of money for example we find that monetary equilibria are generally inefficient in the sense that output and prices differ from the solution to a social planner s problem although the difference can become small as the discount rate or search friction vanishes we also find that there exist nonstationary inflationary equilibria

exchange rate regimes and current account adjustment an empirical investigation the acceleration in the formation of global imbalances in the period preceding the last financial crisis prompted a revival of the debate on whether exchange rate regimes affect the flexibility of the current account i e its degree of mean reversion as originally proposed by friedman 1953 i analyse this relation systematically using a panel of 180 countries over the 1960 2007 period i find robust evidence that flexible exchange rate arrangements deliver a faster current account adjustment among non industrial countries additionally i try to identify channels through which this effect could be taking place the results suggest that exports respond to expenditure switching behaviour by consumers when faced with changes in international relative prices configuring a potential channel

classifying exchange rate regimes deeds vs words abstract most of the empirical literature on exchange rate regimes uses the imf de jure classification based on the regime announced by the governments despite the recognized inconsistencies between reported and actual policies in many cases to address this problem we construct a de facto classification based on data on exchange rates and international reserves from all imf reporting countries over the period 1974 2000 which we believe provides a meaningful alternative for future empirical work on the topic the classification sheds new light on several stylized facts previously reported in the literature in particular we find that the de facto pegs have remained stable throughout the last decade although an increasing number of them shy away from an explicit commitment to a fixed regime hidden pegs we confirm the hollowing out hypothesis but show that it does not apply to countries with limited access to capital markets we also find that pure floats are associated with only relatively minor nominal exchange rate volatility and that the recent increase in the number of de jure floats goes hand in hand with an increase in the number of de facto dirty floats fear of floating

whither monetary economics i argue that monetary economics should be pursued by applying implementation theory to models which contain explicit frictions that make money essential the argument has two parts first i argue that models in which real balances are assumed to be productive models with money in utility or production functions or with cash in advance constraints contain hidden inconsistencies second i argue that the approach advocated is capable of providing new insights about some of the main issues in monetary economics the effects of monetary shocks the welfare cost of inflation and the roles of inside and outside money

the real bills doctrine versus the quantity theory a reconsideration two competing monetary policy prescriptions are analyzed within the context of overlapping generations models the real bills prescription is for unfettered private intermediation or central bank operations designed to produce the effects of such intermediation the quantity theory prescription in contrast is for restrictions on private intermediation designed to separate money from credit although our models are consistent with quantity theory predictions about money supply and price level behavior under these two policy prescriptions the models imply that the quantity theory prescription is not pareto optimal and the real bills prescription is

a model of money and credit with application to the credit card debt puzzle many individuals simultaneously have significant credit card debt and money in the bank the credit card debt puzzle is given high interest rates on credit cards and low rates on bank accounts why not pay down the debt while economists have gone to elaborate lengths to explain this observation we argue it is a special case of the rate of return dominance puzzle from monetary economics we analyze the issue by extending standard monetary theory to incorporate consumer debt this seems interesting in its own right since developing models where money and credit coexist is a long standing challenge and it helps put into context recent discussions of consumer debt

terms of trade and exchange rate regimes in developing countries abstract since friedman essays in positive economics university of chicago press chicago 1953 157 203 an advantage often attributed to flexible exchange rate regimes over fixed regimes is their ability to insulate more effectively the economy against real shocks i use a post bretton woods sample 1973 96 of 75 developing countries to assess whether the responses of real gdp real exchange rates and prices to terms of trade shocks differ systematically across exchange rate regimes i find that responses are significantly different across regimes in a way that supports friedman s hypothesis the paper also examines the importance of terms of trade shocks in explaining the overall variance of output and prices in developing countries

on money as a medium of exchange we analyze economies in which individuals specialize in consumption and production and meet randomly over time in a way that implies that trade must be bilateral and quid pro quo nash equilibria in trading strategies are characterized certain goods emerge endogenously as media of exchange or commodity money depending both on their intrinsic properties and on extrinsic beliefs there are also equilibria with genuine fiat currency circulating as the general medium of exchange we find that equilibria are not generally pareto optimal and that introducing fiat currency into a commodity money economy may unambiguously improve welfare velocity acceptability and liquidity are discussed

recovery rates uncertainty certainly matters abstract previous studies identify default rate as the main systematic determinant of bond recovery rates we revisit this paradigm by investigating the impact of another factor economic uncertainty based on a wide sample of american default issues and relying on beta regression models well suited for the bounded heteroskedastic and skewed sample of recovery rates we analyze the determinants of recovery rate distributions we find economic uncertainty to be of paramount importance as it proves to be the most important systematic determinant of recovery rate distributions significant for both their mean and dispersion by contrast default rate remains a key determinant of the dispersion of these distributions but not for their means considering this evidence is critical to the sound implementation of stochastic recovery rate models used by financial institutions for the computation of regulatory capital

is the exchange rate regime really irrelevant for external adjustment we argue that evidence on whether floating exchange rates facilitate external adjustment is contradictory because existing regime classifications do not adequately capture exchange rate flexibility relevant to external adjustment using a trade weighted bilateral exchange rate volatility measure we show that exchange rate flexibility indeed matters for current account dynamics

payment obligations reserve requirements and the demand for central bank balances we develop a model in which a bank s demand for reserves depends on the joint distribution of transactions reserve requirements and the interest rate by devoting resources to its liquidity management a bank can save on costly reserves required to settle its payments on time we test the model with data from the largest banks in the swiss interbank clearing system we find that the turnover ratio the speed with which a bank turns over its reserves in the payment system depends largely on the aggregate value of its payments we also find that reserve requirements impose a highly uneven burden on the banks

interest rate corridors and reserves abstract this paper evaluates reserves regimes versus interest rate corridors which have become competing frameworks for monetary policy implementation rate corridors relying on lending and deposit facilities to create ceilings and floors for overnight interest rates evince mixed results on controlling volatility reserve requirements allow period average smoothing of interest rates but even if remunerated are subject to reserve avoidance activities a system of voluntary period average reserve commitments could offer equivalent rate smoothing advantages if central banks created symmetric opportunity costs of meeting or falling short of period average reserve requirements or commitments they could achieve flat reserve demand on settlement day

money and dynamic credit arrangements with private information abstract we construct a model with private information in which consumers write dynamic contracts with financial intermediaries a role for money arises due to random limited participation of consumers in the financial market without defection constraints a friedman rule is optimal the mean and variability of wealth tend to fall with inflation in the steady state and the welfare effects of inflation are very small with defection constraints the effects of inflation on the distribution of welfare and consumption are large but the effect on average welfare is still small the relaxation of defection constraints resulting from higher inflation can cause a substantial increase in the real interest rate journal of economic literature classification numbers d8 e4 g2

raising taxes through equalization a simple theory suggests that a common form of federal horizontal equalization grants should cause subnational governments to levy higher tax rates distorting local tax bases and so increasing federal transfers to test this i examine canadian provincial tax policies in the 1972 2002 period consistent with the theory provinces respond to expansions of equalization transfers by increasing their own tax rates i estimate that on average tax rates in grant receiving provinces were substantially and significantly higher as a consequence of the transfer formula jel classification h21 une theorie simple suggere qu une forme usuelle d octrois federaux de perequation horizontale devrait entrainer les gouvernements sub nationaux a imposer de plus hauts taux d imposition modifiant ainsi les bases de fiscalite locale et ce faisant accroissant les transferts federaux pour mettre au test cette hypothese on examine les politiques fiscales des provinces canadiennes pour la periode entre 1972 et 2002 d une maniere qui semble supporter l hypothese les provinces ont repondu a un accroissement des transferts de perequation en accroissant leur propre taux d imposition on estime que les taux moyens d imposition dans les provinces qui recoivent des transferts sont plus eleves de maniere substantielle et significative en raison de la formule de transferts

monetary policy in a channel system abstract channel systems for conducting monetary policy are becoming increasingly popular despite its popularity the consequences of implementing policy with a channel system are not well understood we develop a general equilibrium framework of a channel system and study the optimal policy a novel aspect of the channel system is that a central bank can tighten or loosen its policy without changing its policy rate this policy instrument has so far been overlooked by a large body of the literature on the optimal design of interest rate rules

output costs currency crises and interest rate defence of a peg central banks typically raise short term interest rates to defend currency pegs higher interest rates however often lead to a credit crunch and an output contraction we model this trade off in an optimising first generation model in which the crisis may be delayed but is ultimately inevitable we show that higher interest rates may delay the crisis but raising interest rates beyond a certain point may actually bring forward the crisis due to the large negative output effect the optimal interest rate defence involves setting high interest rates relative to the no defence case both before and at the moment of the crisis

global credit supply shocks and exchange rate regimes abstract the recent global financial crisis has re emphasized the need for better understanding the relation between the type of exchange rate regime err in place and the effects of global credit supply shocks recent advances in the measurement of such shocks and their large realizations in the recent financial crisis produce a suitable quasi natural experiment for studying this relation toward this end i use err classification data for a panel of 40 emerging market economies emes to establish the following main findings output responds significantly more adversely to contractionary global credit supply shocks in the fixed err than in the non fixed err deleveraging and the fall in imports are much more severe in the fixed err and the lack of exchange rate depreciation in the fixed err is accompanied by a stronger fall in exports these results are broadly consistent with predictions from models which include both the expenditure switching channel and the balance sheet channel of exchange rate depreciation where the latter channel effectively becomes expansionary rather than contractionary as commonly thought owing to favorable effects of the expenditure switching channel on balance sheets asset side

exchange rate regimes in the modern era fixed floating and flaky this paper provides a selective survey of the incidence causes and consequences of a country s choice of its exchange rate regime i begin with a critical review of michael klein and jay c shambaugh s 2010 book exchange rate regimes in the modern era and then proceed to provide an alternative overview of what the economics profession knows and needs to know about exchange rate regimes while a fixed exchange rate with capital mobility is a well defined monetary regime floating is not thus it is unclear whether it is theoretically sensible to compare countries across exchange rate regimes this comparison is quite difficult to make empirically it is often hard to figure out what the exchange rate regime of a country is in practice since there are multiple conflicting regime classifications more importantly similar countries choose radically different exchange rate regimes without substantive consequences for macroeconomic outcomes like output growth and inflation that is the profession knows surprisingly little about either the causes or consequences of national choices of exchange rate regimes but since the consequences of these choices are small understanding their causes is of only academic interest jel e52 f33

exchange rate flexibility and credit during capital inflow reversals purgatory not paradise abstract we identify periods of capital inflows reversals looking at both gross and net capital flows and document the behavior of macro and credit variables in economies with different degrees of exchange rate flexibility we find that more exchange rate flexibility moderates credit swings during capital flow cycles mainly because it is associated with milder credit growth during the boom flexibility however cannot completely shield the economy from a credit reversal we observe what we dub as a recovery puzzle credit growth in economies with more flexible exchange rate regimes remains tepid well after the capital flow reversal takes place this results stress potential complementarity of macro prudential policies with the exchange rate regime more flexible regimes could help smoothing the credit cycle through capital surcharges and dynamic provisioning that build buffers to counteract the credit recovery puzzle in contrast more rigid exchange rate regimes would benefit the most from measures to contain excessive credit growth during booms such as reserve requirements loan to income ratios and debt to income and debt service to income limits

are government spending multipliers greater during periods of slack evidence from 20th century historical data a key question that has arisen during recent debates is whether government spending multipliers are larger during periods of slack some researchers and policymakers have argued that while government spending multipliers are estimated to be modest on average they might become greater during times when resources are underutilized auerbach and gorodnichenko 2012 forthcoming henceforth ag test this hypothesis and find larger multipliers dur

money and prices a model of search and bargaining abstract this paper makes commodities divisible and incorporates bargaining into the search theoretic model of money to determine the purchasing power of money or price it is shown that two monetary equilibria always coexist where fiat money is universally accepted the two equilibria differ in price output welfare and the velocity of money sunspot monetary equilibria exist in which money is universally accepted in all states of the economy multiplicity has novel implications on the effectiveness of currency substitution and exchange market intervention journal of economic literature classification numbers c78 e40

financial crises and exchange rate policy this paper studies exchange rate policy in a small open economy model featuring an occasionally binding collateral constraint and fisherian deation the goal is to evaluate the performance of alternative exchange rate policies in sudden stop prone economies the key element of the analysis is a pecuniary externality arising from frictions in the international credit markets which creates a trade o between price

money is memory abstract this paper examines the sets of feasible allocations in a large class of economic environments in which commitment is impossible following myerson 8 the standard definition of feasibility is adapted to take account of the lack of commitment the environments feature either memory or money memory is defined as knowledge on the part of an agent of the full histories of all agents with whom he has had direct or indirect contact in the past money is defined as an object that does not enter utility or production functions and is available in fixed supply the main proposition is that any allocation that is feasible in an environment with money is also feasible in the same environment with memory depending on the environment the converse may or may not be true hence from a technological point of view money is equivalent to a primitive form of memory journal of economic literature classification numbers e40 c73 d82

open mouth operations abstract this paper explains how central bank statements rather than open market operations can be used to implement monetary policy in the extreme policy instruments can be held constant and yet interest rates will evolve along the path desired by the central bank we show how the recent implementation of monetary policy in new zealand works in this way using announcement data from new zealand we find that open mouth operations lead to large changes in interest rates across all maturities and these changes cannot be explained by open market operations implications are drawn for monetary policy in other jurisdictions

financial openness sudden stops and current account reversals in this paper i use a panel data set to investigate the mechanics of sudden stops of capital inflows and current account reversals i am particularly interested in four questions a what is the relationship between sudden stops and current account reversals b to what extent does financial openness affect the probability of a country being subject to a current account reversal in other words do restrictions on capital mobility reduce the probability of such occurrences c does openness both trade openness and financial openness play a role in determining the effect of current account reversals on economic performance i e gdp growth and d does the exchange rate regime affect the intensity with which reversals affect real activity the empirical analysis shows that sudden stops and current account reversals have been closely related the econometric analysis suggests that restricting capital mobility does not reduce the probability of experiencing a reversal current account reversals in turn have had a negative effect on real growth that goes beyond their direct effect on investment the regression analysis indicates that the negative effects of current account reversals on growth will depend on the country s degree of trade openness more open countries will suffer less in terms of lower growth relative to trend than countries with a lower degree of trade openness on the other hand the degree of financial openness does not appear to be related to the intensity with which reversals affect real economic performance the empirical analysis also suggests that countries with more flexible exchange rate regimes are able to accommodate better shocks stemming from a reversal than countries with more rigid exchange rate regimes this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the modern history of exchange rate arrangements a reinterpretation we develop a novel system of reclassifying historical exchange rate regimes one key difference between our study and previous classifications is that we employ monthly data on market determined parallel exchange rates going back to 1946 for 153 countries our approach differs from the imf official classification which we show to be only a little better than random it also differs radically from all previous attempts at historical reclassification our classification points to a rethinking of economic performance under alternative exchange rate regimes indeed the breakup of bretton woods had less impact on exchange rate regimes than is popularly believed