elements for the development of public policies in the residential sector of mexico based in the energy reform and the energy transition law abstract mexico has entered in an important dynamic of structural changes in the energy area proof of this it is the energy reform 2013 and the energy transition law published the last december 24th 2015 thus it is important to carry out studies of the impacts of future politics in the consumption of the population so this study estimate an energy demand system using microdata collected from 97 817 households in a national households income and expenditure survey enigh acronyms in spanish encuesta nacional de ingresos y gastos de los hogares in the 20 years period from 1994 to 2014 the magnitudes of all the fuels are smaller than one indicating that electricity lpg gasoline and public transport are normal goods while lpg is the most inelastic energy source the geographic factor shows that households in the north of mexico tend to consume more gasoline whereas in the south of the country the lowest share of lpg expenditure is reported the rigorous evaluation of energy demanded in households will help policy makers to put forward more efficient reforms

fuel demand elasticities for energy and environmental policies indian sample survey evidence india has been running large scale interventions in the energy sector over the last decades still there is a dearth of reliable and readily available price and income elasticities of demand to base these on especially for domestic use of traditional fuels this study uses the linear approximate almost ideal demand system la aids using micro data of more than 100 000 households sampled across india the la aids model is expanded by specifying the intercept as a linear function of household characteristics marshallian and hicksian price and expenditure elasticities of demand for four main fuels are estimated for both urban and rural areas by different income groups these can be used to evaluate recent and current energy policies the results can also be used for energy projections and carbon dioxide simulations given different growth rates for different segments of the indian population

aggregate demand for electricity in south africa an analysis using the bounds testing approach to cointegration abstract electricity demand in south africa has grown at a very rapid rate over the past decade as part of reform initiatives to enhance long term sustainability of the country s electricity industry south africa s authorities have in recent years sought to develop an electricity pricing framework that is cost reflective and forms the cornerstone of demand management schemes meant to foster changes in consumption behaviour and enhance efficiency in resource use the effects of any pricing policy on aggregate electricity consumption will depend on a useful understanding of the factors that influence electricity demand and the magnitude to which electricity demand responds to changes in such factors in this context this paper applies the bounds testing approach to cointegration within an autoregressive distributed lag framework to examine the aggregate demand for electricity in south africa during the period 1960 2007 the results indicate that in the long run income is the main determinant of electricity demand with electricity prices having an insignificant effect on aggregate electricity demand future pricing policies will need to ensure that electricity prices are cost reflective and enhance efficiency of electricity supply and use

measuring the financial impact of demand response for electricity retailers abstract due to the integration of intermittent resources of power generation such as wind and solar the amount of supplied electricity will exhibit unprecedented fluctuations electricity retailers can partially meet the challenge of matching demand and volatile supply by shifting power demand according to the fluctuating supply side the necessary technology infrastructure such as advanced metering infrastructures for this so called demand response dr has advanced however little is known about the economic dimension and further effort is strongly needed to realistically quantify the financial impact to succeed in this goal we derive an optimization problem that minimizes procurement costs of an electricity retailer in order to control demand response usage the evaluation with historic data shows that cost volatility can be reduced by 7 74 peak costs drop by 14 35 and expenditures of retailers can be significantly decreased by 3 52

the economic effects of renewable energy expansion in the electricity sector a cge analysis for malaysia abstract electricity is a critical factor in developing a robust and modern economy and for improving the quality of life in malaysia the electricity sector benefits from heavy subsidies to its gas inputs such economic interventions disrupt price mechanisms and result in inefficient resource allocations over consumption of electricity co2 emissions and government budget deficits under the tenth malaysia plan price controls and subsidies have been rationalized to achieve complete market pricing in addition in consideration of climate change issues environmental concerns and strengthening energy supply security through diversification the government encourages the use of renewable energy for electricity production through the feed in tariff fit strategy this study employs a computable general equilibrium cge model to examine the potential impacts of gas subsidy reform in the power sector and on the malaysian economy the model evaluates and compares the impacts of two methods of providing funds for encouraging the development of renewable energy production reallocating revenues from gas subsidy removal and remunerating the fit mechanism the simulation results show that reducing gas subsidies without recycling the revenues gained decreases electricity demand and emissions significantly while having only minimal negative effects on macroeconomic variables the results indicate that utilizing a recycling plan in which additional revenues from subsidy reforms are re allocated to finance the fit framework contributes significantly to the production of renewable energies within the power generation sector in malaysia

determinants of import demand for non renewable energy petroleum products empirical evidence from nigeria abstract this study estimated determinants of import demand for refined petroleum products in nigeria for the period 1984 2013 it employed the autoregressive distributed lag ardl bounds test cointegration method and analysed both long run and short run determinants of import demand for total and specific petroleum products in the long run aggregate and sectoral incomes are significant determinants of import of refined kerosene further real effective exchange rate reer aggregate income gdp manufacturing sector s income domestic energy production dep and population growth rate pgr are drivers of import of refined motor spirit moreover reer dep and manufacturing sector s income are propellers of import of refined distillate fuel also reer and total output of petroleum products are major drivers of total import of refined petroleum products short run results show that previous period gdp pgr and manufacturing and service sectors incomes are determinants of import demand for refined kerosene moreover reer gdp previous pgr and manufacturing sector s income exert significant effects on the import of refined motor spirit further significant effects of reer dep previous pgr domestic output of the product and manufacturing and service sectors incomes on the import demand for distillate fuel were found policy implications of the foregoing are articulated in the paper

can poor consumers pay for energy and water an affordability analysis for transition countries low income households spend a substantial share of their income on utility services such as electricity heating and water the difficulty of these socially vulnerable consumers to absorb further price increases is often used as an argument against tariff reform however detailed quantitative information on the affordability of tariff adjustments for low income consumers is actually quite scarce much of the available information is based on households this paper takes a more detailed look at the affordability of electricity district heating and water for low income consumers in transition countries while the available data are incomplete the paper finds that affordability is a problem for low income consumers in most countries in particular in the water sector and in the commonwealth of independent states cis the affordability consequences of tariff reform ultimately depend on the speed of tariff adjustments relative to the growth in household income the level of tariffs needed for cost recovery the level of effective tariffs at the outset tariffs adjusted for non payment and the demand response to the tariff increase the paper finds that delaying tariff reform by a few years makes little difference to affordability constraints and may therefore not be an effective way to mitigate the social impact of utility reform

price and income elasticities of electricity demand evidence from jamaica abstract jamaica s electricity sector faces supply side challenges demand side policies have the potential to improve electricity use efficiency and reduce the likelihood of electricity disruptions in this paper i use the bounds testing approach to cointegration to obtain long run price elasticity of demand estimates for the period 1970 2014 the analysis focuses on aggregate electricity demand and three categories of consumers residential commercial and industrial the findings suggest that residential and industrial consumers are most responsive to price changes with long run price elasticities of demand of 0 82 and 0 25 respectively price based approaches are likely to be more successful in slowing electricity demand growth in these sectors

does energy poverty really exist in china from the perspective of residential electricity consumption abstract china is undergoing a market oriented reform in energy and the residential sector will be involved in the near future the analysis of energy poverty is crucial in breaking the illusion of the dilemma between enhancing energy efficiency and controlling poverty based on chinese residential energy consumption survey we firstly estimated the energy poverty in china by the 10 indicator and lihc indicators and then proposed a minimum end use method to classify the energy poor households into lifeline and consumption energy poverty results show that energy poverty exists in china at the proportion of 18 9 and 46 of the energy poor houses are in short of modern energy consumption and are sensitive to tariffs with a level of electricity consumption lower than the basic demand the energy poverty rate is highest in central china while the lifeline energy poor are relatively concentrated in the western region in terms of public policy we suggest focusing on heterogeneity by considering different groups of households when implementing energy efficiency measures and targeting more on the consumption energy poor in poverty alleviation we also suggest paying particular attention to targeting households with low income by supporting practices such as coupons for energy consumption and appliance purchasing

reputation in bargaining national football league contract negotiations michael conlin i introduction the notion of reputation has been used to explain everything from limit pricing to the chain store paradox to cooperation in the finitely repeated prisoners dilemma game robert wilson 1985 states that reputation can explain many behaviors perhaps too many it is too easy to suppose that there is an unobserved state variable called reputation that explains all that happens the better approach is to develop a well specified model in which the effects of reputation are delineated 27 wilson also discusses the difficulty of empirically testing the effects of reputation this difficulty has led researchers such as camerer and weigelt 1988 to perform controlled experiments designed to test these effects this article develops a wellspecified bargaining model in which reputation effects are analyzed a unique data set of national football league nfl player contracts allows me to empirically test the predictions of my model many bargaining games do not occur in isolation rather individuals often negotiate in several bargaining games sequentially for example a union representative often negotiates a sequence of contracts for different locals and a lawyer who represents a number of different clients in sequence may negotiate out of court settlements professional sports teams and professional athletes illustrate another example of sequential bargaining sports teams negotiate with a number of players sequentially in an effort to reach contractual agreements this article addresses the issue of reputation effects in a sequence of bargaining games reputation effects refer to an individual s actions in a bargaining game providing some information about the individual which influences his actions and his opponents beliefs about those actions in subsequent bargaining games in this manner the outcome of a bargaining game has predictive powers on the outcome of subsequent bargaining games this article presents a model in which a buyer faces a sequence of two bargaining games with different sellers the model addresses how reputation effects influence sequential bargaining games by having the buyer s valuation be positively correlated across bargaining games each bargaining game is structured as a war of attrition game where both the buyer and seller can either make a conceding offer continue negotiating or terminate negotiations at any time there are costs per unit time incurred by the buyer and seller during negotiations and their surpluses are discounted after a certain time a unique sequential equilibrium outcome is calculated from which well defined comparative static results are obtained the model is applied to nfl contract negotiations where the team is the buyer who negotiates with different players sequentially the surpluses of the buyer and seller are discounted after the start of training camp based on the commonly held belief that a player s expected performance is adversely affected by missing the start of training camp conlin 1999 finds empirical support for this belief 1 the comparative static results are empirically tested using rookie contract data of players selected in the 1986 through 1991 nfl drafts these empirical results suggest that an nfl team s contract negotiations are affected by the terms agreed to in prior contract negotiations with different players and when these terms were agreed upon the article is organized in the following manner section ii presents a brief literature review on reputation and bargaining and discusses this study s contribution section iii describes a model of two bargaining games where a single buyer negotiates with different sellers sequentially section iv discusses the nfl draft the contract negotiation process for those players drafted and nfl rookie contracts section v relates the model to nfl rookie contract negotiations section vi summarizes the nfl contract data and section vii describes empirical tests of the model s comparative static results

empirical test of a separating equilibrium in national football league contract negotiations i empirically test for a separating equilibrium in the bargaining contract of national football league nfl contract negotiations the separating equilibrium predicts that a player who delays contractual agreement signs a more lucrative contract and has positive private information on his ability level at the time of contract negotiations these predictions are tested using data on 1 873 players selected in the 1986 through 1991 nfl drafts the empirical results support the implications of the separating equilibrium

measuring nonfundamentalness for structural vars as nonfundamental vector moving averages do not have causal var representations standard structural var methods are deemed inappropriate for recovering the economic shocks of general equilibrium models with nonfundamental reduced forms in the previous literature it has been pointed out that despite nonfundamentalness structural vars may still be good approximating models i characterize nonfundamentalness as bias depending on the zeros of moving average filters however measuring the nonfundamental bias is not trivial because of the simultaneous occurrence of lag truncation bias i propose a method to disentangle the bias based on population spectral density and derive a measure for the nonfundamental bias in population in the application i find that the svar exercises of sims 2012 are accurate because the nonfundamental bias is mild

bargaining with two sided incomplete information an infinite horizon model with alternating offers this paper examines an infinite horizon bargaining model incorporating five features two sided incomplete information with potentially information revealing strategies an infinite horizon uncertainty concerning the potential gains from trade an illumination of interesting qualitative bargaining issues and plausible free from arbitrarily specified out of equilibrium conjectures equilibria these features motivated in the paper have powerful implications a nash equilibrium exists and is generically both unique and sequential comparative static implications of variations in the game s specifications are developed we find that natural indications of bargaining strength emerge from the model and establish the intuitive result that an increase in a player s relative bargaining strength makes that player more likely to capture the gains from bargaining

residential consumption of gas and electricity in the u s the role of prices and income abstract we study the residential demand for electricity and gas working with nationwide household level data that cover recent years namely 1997 2007 our dataset is a mixed panel multi year cross sections of dwellings households in the 50 largest metropolitan areas in the united states as of 2008 we estimate static and dynamic models of electricity and gas demand we find strong household response to energy prices both in the short and long term from the static models we get estimates of the own price elasticity of electricity demand in the 0 860 to 0 667 range while the own price elasticity of gas demand is 0 693 to 0 566 these results are robust to a variety of checks contrary to earlier literature metcalf and hassett 1999 reiss and white 2005 we find no evidence of significantly different elasticities across households with electric and gas heat the price elasticity of electricity demand declines with income but the magnitude of this effect is small these results are in sharp contrast to much of the literature on residential energy consumption in the united states and with the figures used in current government agency practice our results suggest that there might be greater potential for policies which affect energy price than may have been previously appreciated

prices and quality effects in cross sectional demand analysis a conceptual clarification of the sources and meaning of cross sectional price variability is used to motivate a theoretical and econometric framework for the estimation of cross sectional demand functions quality effects are distinguished from supply related price variability to identify cross sectional demand for disaggregated food commodities an empirical application using data from the 1977 78 nationwide food consumption survey indicates that parameter differences resulting from a failure to adjust cross sectional prices for quality effects are likely to be small for relatively homogenous disaggregated food commodities in demand analysis with cross sectional household budget data it is usually assumed that prices are constant allen and bowley prais and houthakker george and king given this assumption engel functions are estimated where expenditure or quantity is regressed on income or total expenditures family size and other demographic characteristics the assumption that cross sectional price effects are absent or are captured adequately by spatial and temporal dummy variables has not been evaluated empirically whether cross sectional price effects can be treated in this manner has implications for the specification of cross sectional demand functions as well as the estimation of engel functions there is a considerable literature on estimating price elasticities with cross sectional data most of the applications utilize timeseries cross sectional data annual or quarterly household consumption surveys and

dynamic demand for residential electricity in taiwan under seasonality and increasing block pricing abstract this paper studies the dynamic demand for residential electricity in taiwan employing a monthly panel data set composed of 19 counties and spanning the period from 2007 01 to 2013 12 the partial adjustment model used addresses the endogeneity of the electricity price that results from the increasing block pricing the estimated results show that there is a significant seasonal difference in the demand for electricity between the summer and non summer periods both the adjustment speed and own price elasticity during the summer months are found to be lower than those in the non summer months due to the hot weather in summer it is easier for consumers to adjust their electricity consumption in response to the changes in electricity pricing during the non summer time the estimated inelastic short run and long run income effects show that electricity is a necessity for consumers moreover the controversial electricity conservation policies are found to be ineffective measures for reducing electricity consumption in taiwan

the dynamics of electricity demand in pakistan a panel cointegration analysis abstract this paper examines the dynamics of electricity demand in pakistan at the aggregate and sectoral levels over the period 1978 2012 panel cointegration test and fully modified ordinary least squares method is employed to determine the long run relationship between electricity consumption real income real price of electricity and domestic price of non energy products the results reveal that electricity demand is more responsive to changes in income than changes in prices at the aggregate and disaggregate levels short run and long run income elasticities are positive and statistically significant supporting the conservation hypothesis it appears from the results that long run price elasticities are negative and significant at the aggregate level and for the agriculture commercial residential sectors and public utilities the short run price elasticities are significant but low in magnitude which implies that changes in electricity price exert minimal effect on the electricity consumption in pakistan the domestic price of non energy products is positive and significant for aggregate sample in the short run the domestic price of non energy products exert significant negative positive impact on electricity demand in the agriculture industrial sectors the results thus provide important information to the agents operating in the electricity market regarding the income and pricing policies and helps in planning the future strategy of electricity demand management

quality quantity and spatial variation of price this paper develops and implements a method for estimating price elasticities of demand using cross sectional household survey data geographically clustered households report unit values which when corrected for quality effects and for measurement error indicate the underlying spatial variation in prices and can be matched to variation in demand patterns a simple model of quality choice is proposed while the correction for measurement error exploits the clustered design of such surveys data from a 1979 household survey from the ivory coast are used to estimate price elasticities for beef meat fish cereals and starches copyright 1988 by american economic association

short run and long run elasticities of import demand for crude oil in turkey abstract the aim of this study is to attempt to estimate the short run and the long run elasticities of demand for crude oil in turkey by the recent autoregressive distributed lag ardl bounds testing approach to cointegration as a developing country turkey meets its growing demand for oil principally by foreign suppliers thus the study focuses on modelling the demand for imported crude oil using annual data covering the period 1980 2005 the bounds test results reveal that a long run cointegration relationship exists between the crude oil import and the explanatory variables nominal price and income but not in the model that includes real price in domestic currency the long run parameters are estimated through a long run static solution of the estimated ardl model and then the short run dynamics are estimated by the error correction model the estimated models pass the diagnostic tests successfully the findings reveal that the income and price elasticities of import demand for crude oil are inelastic both in the short run and in the long run

modelling aggregate domestic electricity demand in ghana an autoregressive distributed lag bounds cointegration approach in spite of the varying supply boosting efforts made by various governments to deal with the existing demand supply gap in the electricity sector the incessant growth in aggregate domestic electricity demand has made these efforts futile as an objective this paper attempts to identify the factors responsible for the historical growth trends in aggregate domestic electricity demand quantifying their effects both in the short run and long run periods using the ardl bounds cointegration approach and the sample period 1975 to 2005 in the long run real per capita gdp industry efficiency structural changes in the economy and degree of urbanisation are identified as the main driving force behind the historical growth trend in aggregate domestic electricity demand however in the short run real per capita gdp industry efficiency and degree of urbanisation are the main drivers of aggregate domestic electricity demand industry efficiency is the only factor that drives aggregate domestic electricity demand downwards however the negative efficiency effect is insufficient to have outweighed the positive income output and demographic effects hence the continual growth in aggregate domestic electricity demand as a policy option we recommend that appropriate electricity efficiency standards be implemented at the industry level

economic and environmental impacts of electricity subsidy reform in kuwait a general equilibrium analysis abstract this paper examined economic and environmental impacts of reducing electricity subsidy in kuwait a social accounting matrix sam was constructed together with energy consumption with co2 emission were compiled and then calibrated with a computable general equilibrium cge model a simulation experiment was conducted by applying a 30 reduction of subsidy to the electricity sector this policy shock was applied to the model in two scenarios in scenario 1 the subsidy reduction was applied and results were compared with the baseline scenario given in the sam this yielded adverse economic effects on most endogenous variables but positive environmental benefits in terms of co2 emission reduction electricity tariff increased by three fold from 2 to 6 fils 0 7 cents to 2 cents per kwh gdp fell by 0 5 and aggregate household welfare declined by 0 8 in scenario 2 subsidy reduction was accompanied with cash transfers to compensate user losses the subsidy deducted from the electricity sector was allocated to users according to their share in base year total expenditure on electricity the results indicated that such transfers would reduce the adverse economic effects co2 emissions fell by 0 5 the gdp and household welfare effects were reversed rising by 0 4 and 0 1 respectively

household and industrial electricity demand in europe abstract this paper examines the electricity demand and its determinants in 29 european countries during the liberalization of the electricity market based on panel data for these countries for the years 1995 2015 and using a dynamic partial adjustment model price elasticities are estimated for both residential and industrial electricity demand these elasticities and effects of other variables on electricity consumption are estimated using both gmm generalized method of moments and ml maximum likelihood approaches it is found that the price elasticities are very small especially in the short run while the income elasticities are relatively large especially for households and in the long run

the demand for residential industrial and total electricity 1973 1998 this paper estimates residential industrial and total electricity demand by a partial adjustment approach and by a simultaneous equation approach simultaneous equation models are more appropriate since they provide negative price elasticity estimates for the residential industrial and total electricity samples flow adjustment models yield positive price elasticity estimates in some cases suggesting they fail to identify proper supply considerations that may be influencing prices the simultaneous equation approach suggests that residential customers are more price sensitive than industrial customers weather seems to have the greatest impact on the residential sector and cold weather appears to affect demand more than hot weather

reputation and imperfect information abstract a common observation in the informal literature of economics and elsewhere is that is multistage games players may seek early in the game to acquire a reputation for being tough or benevolent or something else but this phenomenon is not observed in some formal game theoretic analyses of finite games such as selten s finitely repeated chain store game or in the finitely repeated prisoners dilemma we reexamine selten s model adding to it a small amount of imperfect or incomplete information about players payoffs and we find that this addition is sufficient to give rise to the reputation effect that one intuitively expects

vector autoregressions and reduced form representations of dsge models abstract the performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models is often tested against estimated vars this requires that the data generating process consistent with the dsge theoretical model has a finite order var representation this paper discusses the assumptions needed for a finite order var p representation of a dsge model to exist when a var p is only an approximation to the exact infinite order var the truncated var p may return largely incorrect estimates of the impulse response function the results do not hinge on small sample bias or on incorrect identification assumptions but the bias introduced by truncation can lead to bias in the identification of the structural shocks identification strategies that work in the exact var representation perform poorly in the truncated var

solar photovoltaic power plants in five top oil producing countries in middle east a case study in iran abstract in recent years the challenges of environmental issues sustainable alternatives to fossil fuels increasing energy demand decreasing the profitability of fossil fuels extracted from readily available reservoirs shale formations and tight sands and unsteady and unpredictable energy prices have forced oil producing countries to turn their attention to renewable energies most of these countries are located on the world s solar belt and have an excellent solar availability with an average of 300 320 days of bright sunshine throughout a year there is as a result growing attention to solar energy and especially to the photovoltaics pvs therefore a tremendous progress is witnessed in technology as well as economy through the blooming of new markets in the past few decades the considerable progress in the application of pvs in oil producing countries is closely dependent upon the development of suitable policies and strategies due to the existence of high electricity subsidies and low tariffs of the governments in this context this paper aims to pursue the current progress in pvs in major oil producing countries located around the persian gulf and to discuss the recent advances in the prospective policy of iran as a case study the obtained results show that a minimum of 20 increase in annual electricity rate would guarantee benefit from investments in the pvs power plants under the current economic situation of iran subsequently this study investigates the optimal approaches for the development of the application of pvs in oil producing countries

residential electricity demand dynamics in turkey abstract this article provides fresh empirical evidences for the income and price elasticies of the residential energy demand both in the short run and long run for turkey over the period 1968 2005 using the bounds testing procedure to cointegration the computed elasticities of income and price are consistent with the previous studies and as expected the long run elasticities are greater than the short run elasticities an augmented form of granger causality analysis is implemented among residential electricity income price and urbanization in the long run causality runs interactively through the error correction term from income price and urbanization to residential energy but the short run causality tests are inconclusive the parameter stability of the short run as well as long run coefficients in the residential energy demand function are tested the results of these tests display a stable pattern

the evolution of price elasticity of electricity demand in south africa a kalman filter application abstract in south africa the electricity mismatch of supply and demand has been of major concern additional to past problems the 2008 electricity crisis made the solution crucial after its damaging consequences to the economy the disagreement on the need and consequences of the continuous electricity price hikes worsens the situation to contribute to the recent electricity debate this paper proposes a time varying price elasticity of demand for electricity the sensitivity of electricity consumption to price fluctuations changes throughout the years the main purpose of this study is the estimation of the price elasticity of electricity in south africa during the period 1980 2005 by employing an advanced econometric technique the kalman filter apart from the decreasing effect of electricity prices to consumption 71 8 in the 1990s and 94 5 in the 2000s in average our results conclude to an important finding the higher the prices for example in the 1980s the higher the sensitivity of consumers to price fluctuations thus further increases of the electricity prices may lead to changes in the behaviour of electricity consumers focusing their efforts on improving their efficiency levels by introducing demand side management techniques or even turning to other sources of cheaper energy

measuring the impact of fiscal policy in the face of anticipation a structural var approach empirical estimates of the impact of government spending shocks disagree on central issues such as the size of output multipliers and the responses of consumption and the real wage one explanation for the disagreement is that fiscal shocks are often anticipated due to misspecification of the information set anticipation effects may invalidate svar estimates of impulse responses we use economic theory to derive a fiscal svar estimator that is applicable when fiscal shocks are anticipated we study its properties and apply it to us data we fail to find evidence that anticipation effects overturn the existing findings from the fiscal svar literature despite years of intensive research the empirical literature on fiscal policy has yet to reach consensus on the macroeconomic impact of fiscal policy shocks disagreements concern central issues such as the size of output multipliers and the impact of government spending shocks on consumption and the real wage clearly such level of disagreement constrains our ability to give simple guidelines for the operation of one of the most important stabilisation policies a key empirical obstacle is the measurement of innovations to fiscal policy one strand of the literature employs structural vector autoregressive svar methods and achieves identification based on the presence of decision lags or sign restrictions

modeling industrial energy demand in greece using cointegration techniques abstract this paper attempts to shed light on the determinants of industrial energy demand in greece for this purpose we used cointegration analysis in order to capture short run and long run elasticities for oil and electricity industrial demand respectively the sample spans the period 1970 2004 from the empirical analysis and the johansen s maximum likelihood procedure we found cointegration for oil and electricity demand the results suggest that industrial energy demand is inelastic both in the short and the long run while electricity and oil are substitutes also oil and electricity prices are weakly exogenous both in the short and the long run

the dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances we interpret fluctuations in gnp and unemployment as due to two types of disturbances disturbances that have a permanent effect on output and disturbances that do not we interpret the first as supply disturbances the second as demand disturbances demand disturbances have a hump shaped mirror image effect on output and unemployment the effect of supply disturbances on output increases steadily over time peaking after two years and reaching a plateau after five years

is it more effective to bring time of use pricing into increasing block tariffs evidence from evaluation of residential electricity price policy in anhui province abstract reform of energy prices in china has stepped into a crucial stage it has become a controversial issue after the reform of increasing block tariffs ibts for household electricity followed by a time of use tou pricing policy using eles model this paper estimates the price elasticity of residential electricity demand based on perceived price and price elasticity a power structure model demand response for nonlinear electricity price is proposed taking anhui province as a case this paper analyzes the attainment situation of such policy objectives as electricity saving consumer welfare equity improvement and peak shaving with the introduction of tou pricing into ibts for household electricity the results show that ibts helps reduce electricity consumption by 0 74 0 93 with minor energy effect ibts may lead to a maximum 1 57cny increase of electricity expense per household per month which is acceptable for residents it also may reduce cross subsidy to some extent after introducing tou pricing the efficiency of peak shaving is only 2 25 2 78 and the load decrement at peak periods is far lower than the increase at valley periods while the effect of electricity conservation and cross subsidy reduction have been alleviated in other words peak valley price is not only difficult to achieve its own objective effectively but also prohibits the effect of ibts based on the above conclusions some policy recommendations are provided to improve the price reform of residential electricity natural gas and other public resources in various regions of china and foreign regions with similar electricity market

the demand for electricity in the gcc countries abstract cointegration techniques are used to study the effects of economic variables on electricity demand in the gcc countries a dynamic model is estimated using aggregate data for the six states spanning the period 1970 97 statistical investigations confirm the existence of unit root in all time series employed in the study which called for the use of cointegration and error correction methodologies empirical results indicate that both income and price have an impact on electricity consumption and income and price policies could be effectively facilitated in electricity demand management

modeling energy demand some emerging issues abstract the proliferation of papers on energy demand modeling has offered different dimensions both in terms of methodology and estimation while this development has strengthened our understanding of the subject it may render the identification of gaps in the literature arduous for future research thus this study sets out to document some emerging issues that seem to have engendered new directions on energy demand modeling ranging from asymmetric price responses time varying demand parameters triangulation analyses to seasonal and climate change effects it is hoped that access to this review complemented with the previous ones will facilitate the comprehension of the extant literature as well as areas of future research in energy demand modeling

response of residential electricity demand to price the effect of measurement error abstract in this paper we present an empirical analysis of the residential demand for electricity using annual aggregate data at the state level for 48 us states from 1995 to 2007 earlier literature has examined residential energy consumption at the state level using annual or monthly data focusing on the variation in price elasticities of demand across states or regions but has failed to recognize or address two major issues the first is that when fitting dynamic panel models the lagged consumption term in the right hand side of the demand equation is endogenous this has resulted in potentially inconsistent estimates of the long run price elasticity of demand the second is that energy price is likely mismeasured to address these issues we estimate a dynamic partial adjustment model using the kiviet corrected least square dummy variables lsdv 1995 and the blundell bond 1998 estimators we find that the long term elasticities produced by the blundell bond system gmm methods are largest and that from the bias corrected lsdv are greater than that from the conventional lsdv from an energy policy point of view the results obtained using the blundell bond estimator where we instrument for price imply that a carbon tax or other price based policy may be effective in discouraging residential electricity consumption and hence curbing greenhouse gas emissions in an electricity system mainly based on coal and gas power plants

how a symmetric is the response of import demand to changes in its determinants evidence from european energy imports abstract energy imports are crucial for european countries yet little is known about determinants of their import demand we update long outdated estimates of import demand elasticities using recent data for crude and derived energy products and contribute to the debate on the asymmetry of import demand by using recent developments in econometric modelling our results have important implications for the geopolitics of energy markets in europe asymmetric income seems to be the most relevant determinant of import demand economic growth and fossil fuel consumption are correlated even in the context of the european agenda towards renewables our results suggest that european economic recovery may derail the drive for lower fossil consumption and that changes in the natural gas market may further complicate this drive especially regarding russia as the primary supplier to the eurozone

income and price elasticities of electricity demand aggregate and sector wise analyses abstract cointegration and vector error correction modeling approaches are widely used in electricity demand analysis the study rigorously examines the determinants of electricity demand at aggregate and sectoral levels in pakistan in the backdrop of severe electricity shortages our empirical findings give support to the existence of a stable long run relationship among the variables and indicate that electricity demand is elastic in the long run to both income and price at aggregate level at sectoral level long run income and price elasticity estimates follow this pattern except in agricultural sector where electricity demand is found elastic to output but inelastic to electricity price on the contrary the coefficients for income and price are rather small and mostly insignificant in the short run we employed temperature index price of diesel oil and capital stock at aggregate and sectoral levels as exogenous variables these variables account for most of the variations in electricity demand in the short run it shows that mechanization of the economy significantly affect the electricity demand at macro level moreover elastic electricity demand with respect to electricity price in most of the sectors implies that electricity price as a policy tool can be used for efficient use and conservation

climate change adaptation a study of fuel choice and consumption in the us energy sector abstract using cross sectional data this paper estimates a national energy model of fuel choice by both households and firms consumers in warmer locations rely relatively more heavily on electricity rather than natural gas oil and other fuels they also use more energy climate change will likely increase electricity consumption on cooling but reduce the use of other fuels for heating on net american energy expenditures will likely increase resulting in welfare damages that increase as temperatures rise for example if the us warms by 5 c by 2100 we predict annual welfare losses of 57 billion

elasticities of electricity demand in urban indian households abstract in the past several electricity demand studies have been published for india based on aggregate macro data at the country or sub national state level since the underlying theory of consumer demand is based on the behaviour of individual agents the use of micro data which reflects individual and household behaviour more closely can shed greater light on the nature of consumer responses in this paper seasonal price and income elasticities of electricity demand in the residential sector of all urban areas of india are estimated for the first time using disaggregate level survey data for about 30 000 households three electricity demand functions have been econometrically estimated using monthly data for the winter monsoon and summer season in order to understand the extent to which factors like income prices household size and other household specific characteristics influence variations observed in individual households electricity demand the results show electricity demand is income and price inelastic in all three seasons and that household demographic and geographical variables are significant in determining electricity demand

price knowledge in household demand for utility services a household s decision to acquire price knowledge is endogenous in the demand for utility services and may affect elasticities and consumption levels a simultaneous equation model with endogenous switching is developed to evaluate the effects of price knowledge and other sources of heterogeneity results indicate informed households were more responsive to average and marginal price signals informed households also use less water but this is due to heterogeneity rather than price knowledge controlling for heterogeneity price knowledge actually increases monthly water usage the implications of accounting for differences in price knowledge in utility demand modeling and demand management policy are discussed

can long run restrictions identify technology shocks gali s innovative approach of imposing long run restrictions on a vector autoregression var to identify the effects of a technology shock has become widely utilized in this paper we investigate its reliability through monte carlo simulations using calibrated business cycle models overall gali s methodology appears to be fruitful the impulse responses derived from the artificial data generally have the same sign and qualitative pattern as the true responses and the approach can be informative in discriminating between alternative models however our results reveal some important quantitative shortcomings including considerable estimation uncertainty about the impact of technology shocks on macroeconomic variables more generally the conditions under which the methodology performs well appear considerably more restrictive than implied by the key identifying assumption this underscores the importance of using economic models to guide in the implementation of the approach in interpreting the results and in assessing its limitations jel c32 e32 o33

modelling oecd industrial energy demand asymmetric price responses and energy saving technical change abstract the industrial sector embodies a multifaceted production process consequently modelling the derived demand for energy is a complex issue made all the more difficult by the need to capture the effect of technical progress of the capital stock this paper is an exercise in econometric modelling of industrial energy demand using panel data for 15 oecd countries over the period 1962 2003 exploring the issue of energy saving technical change and asymmetric price responses although difficult to determine precisely it is tentatively concluded that the preferred specification for oecd industrial energy demand incorporates asymmetric price responses but not exogenous energy saving technical change

fiscal foresight and information flows news or foresight about future economic fundamentals can create rational expectations equilibria with non fundamental representations that pose substantial challenges to econometric efforts to recover the structural shocks to which economic agents react using tax policies as a leading example of foresight simple theory makes transparent the economic behavior and information structures that generate non fundamental equilibria econometric analyses that fail to model foresight will obtain biased estimates of output multipliers for taxes biases are quantitatively important when two canonical theoretical models are taken as data generating processes both the nature of equilibria and the inferences about the effects of anticipated tax changes hinge critically on hypothesized information flows different methods for extracting or hypothesizing the information flows are discussed and shown to be alternative techniques for resolving a non uniqueness problem endemic to moving average representations

regional electric power demand elasticities of japan s industrial and commercial sectors abstract in the assessment and review of regulatory reforms in the electric power market price elasticity is one of the most important parameters that characterize the market however price elasticity has seldom been estimated in japan instead it has been assumed to be as small as 0 1 or 0 without proper examination of the empirical validity of such a priori assumptions we estimated the regional power demand functions for nine regions in order to quantify the elasticity and found the short run price elasticity to be 0 09 0 30 and the long run price elasticity to be 0 12 0 56 inter regional comparison of our estimation results suggests that price elasticity in rural regions is larger than that in urban regions popular assumptions of small elasticity of 0 1 for example could be suitable for examining japan s aggregate power demand but not power demand functions that focus on respective regions furthermore assumptions about smaller elasticity values such as 0 01 and 0 could not be supported statistically by this study

abatement and allocation in the pilot phase of the eu ets we use historical industrial emissions data to assess the level of abatement and over allocation that took place across european countries during the pilot phase 2005 2007 of the european union emission trading scheme using a dynamic panel data model we estimate the counter factual business as usual emissions scenario for eu member states comparing this baseline to allocated and verified emissions we find that both over allocation and abatement occurred along with under allocation and emissions inflation over the three trading years of the pilot phase we find over allocation of approximately 280 million euas and total abatement of 247 mt co2 however we calculate that emissions inflation of approximately 73 mt co2 also occurred possibly due to uncertainty about future policy design features

emission abatement untangling the impacts of the eu ets and the economic crisis abstract in this study we use historical emission data from installations under the european union emissions trading system eu ets to evaluate the impact of this policy on greenhouse gas emissions during the first two trading phases 2005 2012 as such the analysis seeks to disentangle two causes of emission abatement that attributable to the eu ets and that attributable to the economic crisis that hit the eu in 2008 09 to do so we use a dynamic panel data approach our results suggest that by far the biggest share of abatement was attributable to the effects of the economic crisis this finding has serious implications for future policy adjustments affecting core elements of the eu ets including the distribution of eu emission allowances

measuring the welfare effects of reducing a subsidy on a commodity using micro models an application to kuwait s residential demand for electricity abstract this paper provides a conceptual and empirical approach for evaluating the direct benefits and costs that are associated with reforming the price of a subsidized commodity using a micro model the welfare analysis is based on two alternative scenarios a hypothetical percentage increase in the price of the commodity and a hypothetical percentage decrease in the amount of subsidy the latter is considered to be a simultaneous problem in which the exact price of the commodity that reduces consumption and subsequently the subsidy to the specific target level needs to be determined first as a case study the paper utilizes the most recent household expenditure survey in the state of kuwait to estimate residential electricity demand for different household groups i e low middle and high income and employs a partial equilibrium model to measure the welfare implications that may result from a reduction in the electricity subsidy rates the empirical findings show that a small increase in the price of electricity would reduce annual consumption by 4741 million kwh and annual subsidy by us 734 million the results also show that the loss in consumers welfare is approximately us 145 million while the financial and environmental benefits to the society ranges between us 658 million and us 889 million the magnitude of these welfare gains suggests that electricity price reforms combined with a rebate scheme to compensate households for their welfare loss offsetting any political resistance to reform is a win win situation

a review of time use models of residential electricity demand residential electricity demand in most european countries accounts for a major proportion of overall electricity consumption the timing of residential electricity demand has significant impacts on carbon emissions and system costs this paper reviews the data and methods used in time use studies in the context of residential electricity demand modelling it highlights key issues which are likely to become more topical for research on the timing of electricity demand following the roll out of smart metres

market structure in the us electricity industry a long term perspective we estimate changes in market structure in the us electric power industry during the last three decades using two independent approaches first we estimate an industry wide conjectural variations parameter we find that industry concentration was generally rising during the 1970s but has been gradually and consistently falling since the early 1980s to check the robustness of these results we then use a translog production function to estimate the lerner index the results confirm that the industry was becoming less concentrated during the 1980s though the lerner index tended to fluctuate during the late 1980s and early 1990s our results suggest that the current state of the electricity industry may have more to do with long term changes in market structure than recent attempts to establish competitive wholesale electricity markets

welfare impact of electricity subsidy reforms in pakistan a micro model study abstract electricity subsidies in developing countries have always been debated in economics circles despite their popular appeal of providing relief to the poor the research has proven otherwise they increase the magnitude of deadweight loss and taper consumer welfare however complete withdrawal of a subsidy will make electricity unaffordable for the underprivileged therefore in the context of developing countries there is a need to determine the optimal level of subsidy which will have the least economic impact and benefit the maximum number of users pakistan has been marred by deep energy crises and the government is forced to provide very large subsidies for electricity using pakistan as a case study this study uses a uniform and non uniform price increase to determine the optimal level of electricity subsidies this study employs a micro model technique for the calculation of deadweight and welfare losses when the price of electricity is increased uniformly or non uniformly across different consumption groups this study also introduces a targeted subsidy approach for curbing the mounting deadweight loss due to immense electricity subsidies our research has identified that the targeted subsidy approach not only generates fiscal savings but also improves the welfare of the vulnerable in society

evaluating the role of subsidy reform in addressing poverty levels in malaysia a cge poverty framework abstractmalaysia as one of the top subsidised countries around the world has launched to reduce subsidies to capture its development goals this study therefore analyses the effects of the subsidy reform on the macroeconomic welfare and poverty levels of malaysia by applying a cge model the findings suggest that subsidy removal leads to significant falls in both income and consumption of rural urban and non citizen households and consequently decreases their welfare however poverty levels among rural households will most likely increase significantly when compared to urban households due to their relatively low level of income compared to other groups

response of residential electricity demand to price in this paper we present an empirical analysis of the residential demand for electricity using annual aggregate data at the state level for 48 us states from 1995 to 2007 we estimate a dynamic partial adjustment model using the kiviet corrected lsdv 1995 and the blundell bond 1998 estimators in addition to the lagged dependent variable our equation includes energy prices income cooling and heating degree days and average household size we find that the short run own price elasticity of consumption is similar across ldsv bias corrected lsdv and the variant of the blundell bond where we instrument for price the short run elasticity is the lowest when we use the blundell bond gmm approach that treats the price of electricity as exogenous the long term elasticities produced by the blundell bond system gmm methods are largest and that from the bias corrected ldsv is greater than that from the conventional lsdv from an energy policy point of view the results obtained using the blundell bond estimator where we instrument for price imply that there is room in an electricity system mainly based on coal and gas power plants for discouraging residential electricity consumption and curbing greenhouse gas emissions by imposing a carbon tax

price elasticities of residential electricity demand estimates from household panel data in bangladesh abstract we collect a household level panel dataset to estimate the price elasticities of electricity demand for different types of urban households in bangladesh we use an instrumental variable estimation strategy which exploits exogenous variation in average electricity prices induced by a value added tax shock the results indicate significant heterogeneity in price elasticities by electricity consumption levels we conduct a number of simulations under alternative policy scenarios to illustrate how incorporating the heterogeneous nature of price elasticities into pricing policy can help decrease electricity demand supply mismatch and inequality in electricity consumption the results have important policy implications for developing countries aiming to address major energy issues by implementing tariff reforms

impacts of energy subsidy reform on the malaysian economy and transportation sector malaysia is paying a high level of subsidies on the consumption of energy about 5 of its gdp therefore reforming the energy subsidies as planned by the government will have a significant impact on household welfare and energy intensive sectors such as the transport sector this study employs a computable general equilibrium cge model to highlight the transmission channels through which the removal of energy subsidies affects the domestic economy the findings show that the shock increases real gdp and real investment while decreasing malaysian total exports and imports the removal of energy subsidies also decreases the aggregate energy demand and consequently decreases the level of carbon emissions in the malaysian economy in addition households experience significant falls in their consumption and welfare the transport sector is significantly influenced through an increase in production costs due to an increase in the prices of intermediate inputs the total output and total exports of the whole transport sector decrease while its imports increase in addition the use of all kinds of transport by households decreases significantly the malaysian energy subsidy reform leads to an initial decrease in co2 emissions and demand for electricity gas and petroleum products in the entire transport sector

residential energy demand in the united states analysis using static and dynamic approaches abstract the residential sector is the main consumer of energy in the united states and reducing energy consumption is an important goal for policymakers in each state to know how reducing residential energy demand could be achieved this study develops a set of static and dynamic models to investigate and identify the impact of socio economic and demographic characteristics building age energy prices and weather conditions on residential energy demand at the state level from 2005 to 2013 next this study proposes two alternative scenarios to reduce residential energy demand based on the most precise model for every 10 000 dollars of per capita income in each state 1 increasing residential electricity price by 1 cent per kw h and 2 decreasing average building age by 1 in the first scenario the findings indicate that annual residential electricity demand would decrease by 7 3 on average with the highest reductions in washington 11 9 north dakota 10 9 and idaho 9 7 in the second scenario residential gas demand would decrease by an average of 15 8 annually with the highest reduction in connecticut 33 2 followed by new york 33 0 and massachusetts 30 7 these proposed scenarios assist policymakers in optimizing decisions and investments to reduce residential energy consumption

news shocks and business cycles abstract this paper proposes and implements a novel structural var approach to the identification of news shocks about future technology the news shock is identified as the shock orthogonal to the innovation in current utilization adjusted tfp that best explains variation in future tfp a favorable news shock leads to an increase in consumption and decreases in output hours and investment on impact more suggestive of standard dsge models than of recent extensions designed to generate news driven business cycles though news shocks account for a significant fraction of output fluctuations at medium frequencies they contribute little to our understanding of recessions

sensitivity of price elasticity of demand to aggregation unobserved heterogeneity price trends and price endogeneity evidence from u s data abstract price elasticity estimates of residential electricity demand vary widely across the energy economics and policy literature in this paper we seek to explain these findings using three nationwide datasets from the u s the american housing survey forms eia 861 and the residential energy consumption survey we examine the role of the sample period level of aggregation use of panel data use of instrumental variables and inclusion of housing characteristics and capital stock our findings suggest that price elasticities have remained relatively constant over time upon splitting our panel datasets into annual cross sections we do observe a negative relationship between price elasticities and the average price whether prices are rising or falling appears to have little effect on our estimates we also find that aggregating our data can result in both higher and lower price elasticity estimates depending on the dataset used and that controlling for unit level fixed effects with panel data generally results in more inelastic demand functions addressing the endogeneity of price and or measurement error in price with instrumental variables has a small but noticeable effect on the price elasticities finally controlling for housing characteristics and capital stock produces a lower price elasticity

household demand for electricity the role of market distortions and prices in competition policy abstract this paper examines residential demand for electricity in sri lanka using survey data collected over a five year period between 2011 and 2015 the study finds that the major determinants of demand for residential electricity are the result of price or market distortions i e subsidies socioeconomic variables and energy saving technology the effects of these variables are particularly relevant to competition policy estimated elasticities with respect to average price subsidies under marginal cost pricing subsidies under average cost pricing and income are found to be 0 015 0 021 0 036 and 0 046 respectively we find that demand for electricity is inelastic and is categorised as a normal good however elasticities with respect to subsidy variables are found to be higher than the price variable this implies that under an increasing block rate system any price change used as a policy measure to control electricity consumption will not be effective this is because price changes could alter the subsidy received by the consumer and therefore reverse the objective of the price change further results of this study find that price and elasticities with respect to subsidy variables are relatively higher for low income groups while income elasticity is relatively larger for high income groups

bargaining under two sided incomplete information the unrestricted offers case chatterjee and samuelson chatterjee k l samuelson 1987 bargaining with two sided incomplete information an infinite horizon model with alternating offers rev econ stud 54 175 192 recently examined a noncooperative game theoretic bargaining model with two sided incomplete information and an infinite horizon results were obtained from the model with the help of restrictions on agents strategies this paper examines the model without these restrictions by doing so we will gain some insight into whether these results are robust in the sense that they do not depend upon the special structure of the model and hence might provide useful theoretical foundations for applied work we find that the basic results generalize as with the restricted model we find an equilibrium in which bargaining will proceed for a finite but endogeneously determined number of stages a terminal condition on the equilibrium sequence of agents beliefs determines the properties of the equilibrium and allows compar

no news in business cycles this paper uses a structural large dimensional factor model to evaluate the role of news shocks shocks with a delayed eect on productivity in generating the business cycle

inverse demand systems and welfare measurement in quantity space most studies of welfare or cost benefit analyses are concerned with the welfare effects of price changes 11 19 27 33 50 there are however many situations in which policy options are directly related to quantity changes the welfare effects of price changes are analyzed with the traditional demand system in which commodity quantities are determined as functions of their prices the welfare effects of quantity changes on the other hand are associated with the inverse demand system in which commodity prices are dependent on their quantities in conventional welfare analysis of price change prices are taken to be exogenous or predetermined while quantities are endogenous in contrast in welfare analysis of quantity changes quantities are exogenous while prices are endogenous price based or dual welfare measures are relevant when there are well functioning competitive markets and quantities are fully adjusted to changes in prices on the other hand quantity based or primal welfare measures are useful in situations where there are constraints on commodity quantities or when transaction costs impede consumers from fully adjusting to changes in prices the choice between priceand quantity based welfare measures is empirical and proper measurement of welfare effects requires the knowledge as to which variable price or quantity is the exogenous one for individual consumers it may be reasonable to assume that the supply of commodities is perfectly elastic and therefore prices can be taken as exogenous but this assumption may not be tenable for consumers in the aggregate or if highly aggregated economy wide data are used to estimate demand relations at the aggregate level quantities are more properly viewed as exogenous than are prices although individual consumers make their consumption decisions based on given prices the quantities of commodities are predetermined by production at the market level and prices must adjust so that the available quantities are consumed 28 1 2

regionally varying and regionally uniform electricity pricing policies compared across four usage categories the objective of our research is to predict how electricity demand varies spatially between status quo regionally uniform electricity pricing and hypothetical regionally varying electricity pricing across usage categories we summarize the empirical results of a case study of electricity demand in south korea with three key findings and their related implications first the price elasticities of electricity demand differ across usage categories specifically electricity demands for manufacturing and retail uses are price inelastic and close to unit elastic respectively while those for agricultural and residential uses are not statistically significant this information is important in designing energy policy because higher electricity prices could reduce electricity demands for manufacturing and retail uses resulting in slower growth in those sectors second spatial spillovers in electricity demand vary across uses understanding the spatial structure of electricity demand provides useful information to energy policy makers for anticipating changes in demand across regions via regionally varying electricity pricing for different uses third simulation results suggest that spatial variations among electricity demands by usage category under a regionally varying electricity pricing policy differ from those under a regionally uniform electricity pricing policy differences in spatial changes between the policies provide information for developing a realistic regionally varying electricity pricing policy according to usage category

estimation of elasticity price of electricity with incomplete information abstract the sharp increase in energy prices and growing concern for environmental issues among other things are behind the renewed interest in energy demand estimation however there is scarce academic literature that takes real situation of energy suppliers into account high quality but incomplete data in this paper we propose a useful and rather simple instrument for estimating electricity demand with the incomplete and or imperfect data currently available to suppliers in particular using real expenditure and consumption data on electricity we employ a model of random effects for panel data to estimate residential and industrial electricity demand in spain

generation expansion planning with large amounts of wind power via decision dependent stochastic programming power generation expansion planning needs to deal with future uncertainties carefully given that the invested generation assets will be in operation for a long time many stochastic programming models have been proposed to tackle this challenge however most previous works assume predetermined future uncertainties i e fixed random outcomes with given probabilities in several recent studies of generation assets planning e g thermal versus renewable new findings show that the investment decisions could affect the future uncertainties as well to this end this paper proposes a multistage decision dependent stochastic optimization model for long term large scale generation expansion planning where large amounts of wind power are involved in the decision dependent model the future uncertainties are not only affecting but also affected by the current decisions in particular the probability distribution function is determined by not only input parameters but also decision variables to deal with the nonlinear constraints in our model a quasi exact solution approach is then introduced to reformulate the multistage stochastic investment model to a mixed integer linear programming model the wind penetration investment decisions and the optimality of the decision dependent model are evaluated in a series of multistage case studies the results show that the proposed decision dependent model provides effective optimization solutions for long term generation expansion planning

modelling demand for crude oil products in spain this paper develops an econometric model for the five most important crude oil products demand in spain the aim is the estimation of a range of elasticities of such demands that would serve as the basis for an applied general equilibrium model used for forecasting energy demand in a broader framework the main distinctive features of the system with respect to previous literature are i it takes advantage of monthly information coming from very different information sources and ii multivariate unobserved components uc models are implemented allowing for a separate analysis of long and short run relations uc models decompose time series into a number of unobserved though economic meaningful components mainly trend seasonal and irregular a module is added to such structure to take into account the influence of exogenous variables necessary to compute price cross and income elasticities since all models implemented are multivariate in nature the demand components are allowed to interact among them through the system noises similar to a seemingly unrelated equations model the results show unambiguously that the main factor driving demand is real income with prices having little impact on energy consumption

estimation of japanese price elasticities of residential electricity demand 1990 2007 abstract this paper estimates elasticities of japanese residential price electricity from 1990 to 2007 the first difference generalized method of moment estimator is employed to avoid dynamic panel bias which is not considered in most previous studies the results show that while short run elasticities are similar to those in previous studies long run elasticities are significantly lower in our study we also find that the price elasticity of japanese residential electricity consumption is notably affected by income inequality and severe weather based on these results we provide some insights to tailor environmental taxation so as to effectively attain the kyoto protocol

diversification effects of energy subsidy reform in oil exporters illustrations from kuwait abstract for oil exporters energy subsidy reform and economic diversification are critical policy responses to recent fundamental changes in the global oil market and oil price declines yet the relationship between them is little understood this article investigates linkages between energy subsidy reform and accelerating economic diversification away from hydrocarbons in a low oil price environment using illustrations from kuwait it employs an economy wide general equilibrium model with oligopolistic industrial structure the first of its kind for an economy in the middle east and north africa that embodies unique elements of the country s economic structure oil dependence public sector dominance subsidies sovereign wealth funds industrial collusive pricing behaviour and guest workers the article argues that contrary to common popular discourse kuwait s economy has a diversified economic base but this base fails to diversify export or government revenue needed for economic sustainability results show that weak economic diversification in oil exporters with a similar economic structure is not primarily due to dutch disease as dominant in the literature but to economic constraints and distortions that impair structural change and exacerbate overdependence on hydrocarbons labour and competition reforms relax some constraints achieving large efficiency gains that extend economy wide and can expand non energy tradable sectors the analysis has important policy implications first the potential role of pricing regulation in small economies in moderating economic impacts of negative oil shocks second in oil economies characterized by pervasive oligopolies microeconomic reform can be a channel to achieve efficiency and better diversification effects of subsidy reform

estimating residential demand for electricity in the united states 1965 2006 abstract this paper examines the residential demand for electricity in the us economy as a function of the per capita income the price of electricity the price of oil for heating purposes the weather conditions and the stock of occupied housing over the period 1965 2006 this paper has two novelties first the occupied stock of houses as a proxy for the stock of electrical appliances and second the identification of a possible equilibrium relationship among the variables is ascertained through the recently advanced ardl approach to cointegration our empirical findings give support to a stable long run relationship implying also short run and long run elasticities whose size and sign are comparable to other similar studies

on the sources of information about latent variables in dsge models abstract latent variables are ubiquitous in macroeconomics and structural models are often used to characterize and estimate them from empirical data this paper addresses the problem of identifying the key sources of information with respect to latent variables in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models to that end i show how to evaluate the information content of a set of observable variables with respect to a given latent variable the methodology enables researchers to measure and compare the informational contribution of different observables and identify the most informative ones thus it provides a framework for a rigorous treatment of such issues which are often discussed in an informal manner in the literature the methodology is illustrated with an assessment of the informational importance of asset prices with respect to news shocks in the business cycle model developed by schmitt grohe and uribe 2012

kuwait s energy subsidy reduction examining economic and co2 emission effects with or without compensation abstract this paper examined economy wide impacts of reducing energy subsidy in kuwait a social accounting matrix sam was constructed and a computable general equilibrium cge model was developed the cge model was used to simulate separate and combined effects of a 25 reduction of subsidy to three energy products natural gas oil and electricity this policy shock was applied to the model in two scenarios in each round the subsidy reductions were applied to each energy product separately in turn and then finally simultaneously to all energy products in the first scenario subsidy reductions were applied and results were compared with the baseline scenario given in the sam this yielded adverse effects across a range of endogenous variables it leads to large energy price increases as high as 255 for electricity gross domestic product gdp marginally declined by 0 28 in scenario 2 the subsidy reduction was accompanied with cash transfers to energy users a compensation for welfare loss the amount of transfer was equivalent to the sum of the amount of subsidy reductions the results indicated that such transfers would reduce the adverse effects of the policy reform the effects on gdp was reversed it rose by 1 01 the price effect was slightly lower electricity price rose by 245 finally sensitivity of the model results was examined by varying the elasticity of the substitution of composite energy and capital in production greater possibility of substitution seems to cause subsidy reform to have much larger positive or smaller adverse economy wide effects the simulation experiments suggest that subsidy reform would need to be accompanied by demand side stimulus or supply side initiatives to encourage energy conservation

estimating short and long term residential demand for electricity new evidence from sri lanka this study investigates the short run dynamics and long run equilibrium relationship between residential electricity demand and factors influencing demand per capita income price of electricity price of kerosene oil and price of liquefied petroleum gas using annual data for sri lanka for the period 1960 2007 the study uses unit root cointegration and error correction models the long run demand elasticities of income own price and price of kerosene oil substitute were estimated to be 0 78 0 62 and 0 14 respectively the short run elasticities for the same variables were estimated to be 032 0 16 and 0 10 respectively liquefied petroleum lp gas is a substitute for electricity only in the short run with an elasticity 0 09 the main findings of the paper support the following 1 increasing the price of electricity is not the most effective tool to reduce electricity consumption 2 existing subsidies on electricity consumption can be removed without reducing government revenue 3 the long run income elasticity of demand shows that any future increase in household incomes is likely to significantly increase the demand for electricity and 4 any power generation plans which consider only current per capita consumption and population growth should be revised taking into account the potential future income increases in order to avoid power shortages ill the country

industrial and residential electricity demand dynamics in japan how did price and income elasticities evolve from 1989 to 2014 abstract this study estimates the price and income elasticities of industrial and residential electricity demand in japan with the annual data from 1989 to 2014 a time varying parameter tvp model with the kalman filter is applied to monitor the evolution of consumer behaviors in the post bubble period given the exogenous shock financial crisis in 2008 and the structural breaks electricity deregulation and fukushima daiichi crisis the tvp model can provide a robust estimation of elasticities and can detect the outliers and the structural breaks the results suggest that both industrial and residential consumers become less sensitive to price after the electricity deregulation and the financial crisis and more sensitive to price after the fukushima daiichi crisis especially the industrial sector is less sensitive to price after the retail deregulation by contrast the income elasticities of industrial and residential sector consumers are stable during the examined period results also indicate that a negative relationship exists between the price elasticity of electricity demand and the price level of electricity after the electric sector deregulation some insights on the further electric sector reform and the environmental taxation in japan are also provided

the residential demand for electricity in australia an application of the bounds testing approach to cointegration this paper reports estimates of the long and short run elasticities of residential demand for electricity in australia using the bounds testing procedure to cointegration within an autoregressive distributive lag framework in the long run we find that income and own price are the most important determinants of residential electricity demand while temperature is significant some of the time and gas prices are insignificant our estimates of long run income elasticity and price elasticity of demand are consistent with previous studies although they are towards the lower end of existing estimates as expected the short run elasticities are much smaller than the long run elasticities and the coefficients on the error correction coefficients are small consistent with the fact that in the short run energy appliances are fixed

sufficient information in structural vars abstract necessary and sufficient conditions under which a var contains sufficient information to estimate the structural shocks are derived on the basis of this theoretical result we propose two simple tests to detect informational deficiency and a procedure to amend a deficient var a simulation based on a dsge model with fiscal foresight suggests that our method correctly identifies and fixes the informational problem in an empirical application we show that a bivariate var including unemployment and labor productivity is informationally deficient once the relevant information is included into the model technology shocks appear to be contractionary