natural resources curse or blessing are natural resources a curse or a blessing the empirical evidence suggests that either outcome is possible this paper surveys a variety of hypotheses and supporting evidence for why some countries benefit and others lose from the presence of natural resources these include that a resource bonanza induces appreciation of the real exchange rate deindustrialization and bad growth prospects and that these adverse effects are more severe in volatile countries with bad institutions and lack of rule of law corruption presidential democracies and underdeveloped financial systems another hypothesis is that a resource boom reinforces rent grabbing and civil conflict especially if institutions are bad induces corruption especially in nondemocratic countries and keeps in place bad policies finally resource rich developing economies seem unable to successfully convert their depleting exhaustible resources into other productive assets the survey also offers some welfare based fiscal rules for harnessing resource windfalls in developed and developing economies

guidelines for exploiting natural resource wealth the principles of how best to manage the various components of national wealth are outlined where the permanent income hypothesis the hotelling rule and the hartwick rule play a prominent role as far as managing natural resource wealth is concerned a case is made to use an intergenerational sovereign wealth fund to smooth consumption across generations a liquidity fund for the precautionary buffers to deal with commodity price volatility and an investment fund to park part of the windfall until the country is ready to absorb extra spending on domestic investment capital scarcity implies that a positive part of the windfall should be spent on domestic investment the conclusions highlight the political economy problems that will have to be tackled with these normative proposals for managing wealth the author 2014 published by oxford university press

a techno economic and environmental assessment of long term energy policies and climate variability impact on the energy system abstract this paper examines the impact of climate variability and change cv c and energy policies on the future energy system in australia scenarios were developed to represent cv c impacts and policy options which were analysed with the long range energy alternative and planning system for the period 2010 2050 the results indicate that although energy demand is likely to increase threefold in the business as usual scenario cv c further increases demand to 150 petajoule a combined policy option involving modal shift and penetration of electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles results in a 49 53 decrease in transport fuel demand and emissions the economic analysis reveals a substantial decline in sales revenue and increase in generation costs due to cv c impacts higher renewable energy integration results in lower wholesale electricity prices across independent electricity markets cumulative cost benefit analysis indicates that economic benefits increase to us 4 9 trillion in an advanced renewable energy scenario emissions and energy consumed increased under climatic conditions but decreased after policy intervention ignoring the influence of cv c may result in underestimation of future energy demand and installed capacity in australia therefore energy and climate policies should consider long term economic benefits over short term system costs

expanding versus greening long term energy and emission transitions in mozambique abstract mozambique is rapidly emerging as one of the leading energy producers in africa we develop a comprehensive scenario analysis to review the energy revolution in mozambique like much of africa mozambique features a competition between development of its vast reserves of renewable energy and fossil fuels we assess the implied energy and emissions transitions as well as the potential impact of a range of sustainable policy options our analysis reveals an emerging energy dichotomy where a spectacular expansion of energy production goes together with an only gradual energy consumption transition we find that over time the share of modern renewable energy sources tends to marginalize in the energy production mix while remaining stable in the energy consumption mix about one third of the ghg emissions associated with energy production can be linked to energy export also we find that sustainable energy policies at the supply side lead to far higher cumulative emission reductions than demand side policies finally we show that even in the long run a complete ban on thermal electricity generation capacity in mozambique would by no means lead to shortages in the domestic electricity market but only slightly limit potential electricity export

recent development of energy supply and demand in china and energy sector prospects through 2030 abstract facing multiple pressures including its commitment to energy efficiency improvement the current worldwide recession and global warming concerns china is making great efforts to maintain its continuous economic growth and reduce pollutant emissions many policies to encourage investing in energy efficiency and renewable energy have been issued this article provides insights into the latest development of energy production energy consumption and energy strategic planning and policies in china and also describes the analysis carried out by the authors as part of the asian energy security project using the long range energy alternatives planning leap modeling tool of the impacts of implementing new and expected energy and environmental policies

stochastic joint optimization of wind generation and pumped storage units in an electricity market one of the main characteristics of wind power is the inherent variability and unpredictability of the generation source even in the short term to cope with this drawback hydro pumped storage units have been proposed in the literature as a good complement to wind generation due to their ability to manage positive and negative energy imbalances over time this paper investigates the combined optimization of a wind farm and a pumped storage facility from the point of view of a generation company in a market environment the optimization model is formulated as a two stage stochastic programming problem with two random parameters market prices and wind generation the optimal bids for the day ahead spot market are the ldquohere and nowrdquo decisions while the optimal operation of the facilities are the recourse variables a joint configuration is modeled and compared with an uncoordinated operation a realistic example case is presented where the developed models are tested with satisfactory results

energy models for demand forecasting a review abstract energy is vital for sustainable development of any nation be it social economic or environment in the past decade energy consumption has increased exponentially globally energy management is crucial for the future economic prosperity and environmental security energy is linked to industrial production agricultural output health access to water population education quality of life etc energy demand management is required for proper allocation of the available resources during the last decade several new techniques are being used for energy demand management to accurately predict the future energy needs in this paper an attempt is made to review the various energy demand forecasting models traditional methods such as time series regression econometric arima as well as soft computing techniques such as fuzzy logic genetic algorithm and neural networks are being extensively used for demand side management support vector regression ant colony and particle swarm optimization are new techniques being adopted for energy demand forecasting bottom up models such as markal and leap are also being used at the national and regional level for energy demand management

information aggregation bias aggregation in the presence of data processing lags distorts the information content of data violating orthogonality restrictions that hold at the individual level though the phenomenon is general it is illustrated here for the life cycle permanent income model cross section and pooled panel data induce information aggregation bias akin to that in aggregate time series calculations show that information aggregation can seriously bias tests of the life cycle model on aggregate time series cross section and pooled panel data copyright 1992 by american economic association

estimation of elasticities for domestic energy demand in mozambique abstract in mozambique households consume a mix of energy sources to satisfy their needs for lighting and cooking and for wealthier households other domestic necessities such as refrigeration the domestic energy mix depends on the prices of the sources and on the capability of the household to invest in the energy consuming appliances required to satisfy those needs based on data from a household survey carried out in mozambique during 2002 3 iaf this paper calculates the price and the income elasticities of demand for domestic energy using an econometric method developed by deaton the calculations are made for all households at the national level differentiating for urban and rural households and for the northern households of mozambique in the econometric formulation proxies for the ownership of energy appliances per household are used allowing a simple evaluation of the effects of asset ownership on the demand for energy own and cross price elasticities for five individual domestic sources are obtained low grade sources such as firewood and charcoal are less elastic elasticities of 0 41 and 0 28 respectively than candles kerosene and electricity respectively 0 88 0 79 and 0 60 income elasticities are respectively 0 45 0 32 0 93 0 84 and 0 69 placing firewood and charcoal as the less responsive to income variations and candles and kerosene as the most responsive we also comment on the factors influencing domestic energy transition

reducing co2 emissions on the electric grid through a carbon disincentive policy this paper studies the operation of an electric grid with renewable wind generation and plug in electric vehicles pevs in particular pevs will be the controllable demand that can mitigate the intermittency in wind generation and improve the capacity factors of the non renewable generation assets on the grid optimization problems are formulated to minimize the costs of electricity generation and two approaches are proposed to address the grid co2 emission in the optimization the first approach directly penalizes co2 in the objective function and the second approach adopts a carbon disincentive policy to alter the dispatch order of power plants so that expensive low co2 plants can replace cheap high co2 plants these two approaches result in very different outcomes the first approach affects only the pev charging demand on the grid and does not result in significant co2 reduction whereas the second approach controls both the generation and load and co2 can be reduced substantially in addition the carbon disincentive policy unlike a carbon tax does not collect any revenue therefore the increase in electricity cost is minimal the effect of the proposed algorithms on the grid electricity cost and carbon emission is analyzed in details and reported

carbon taxes and carbon emissions trading this paper surveys the literature on and examples of current implementation of carbon taxes and carbon emission permits it sets out the theoretical basis for these instruments with special reference to the revenue recycling and tax interaction effects this theoretical work concludes that instruments which raise revenue which can be recycled so as to reduce pre existing distortionary taxes are significantly less costly than those which do not the paper then reviews the sizable literature on the distributional effects of these instruments especially with regard to industrial competitiveness and regressive effects on low income groups evaluating attempts to mitigate these where they are perceived as unacceptable the paper concludes that such efforts at mitigation while possible can substantially reduce the efficiency benefits of the instruments the projected costs of carbon taxes depend on a wide range of assumptions this is still a contested area but the paper concludes that on a range of plausible assumptions these costs need not be high finally the paper notes that early evaluations of the environmental effectiveness of carbon taxes have been generally positive this suggests that if concern about anthropogenic climate change continues to increase more countries will introduce carbon taxes and emission permits with the latter increasingly auctioned

electricity demand and supply scenarios for maharashtra india for 2030 an application of long range energy alternatives planning abstract forecasting of electricity demand has assumed a lot of importance to provide sustainable solutions to the electricity problems leap has been used to forecast electricity demand for the target year 2030 for the state of maharashtra india holt s exponential smoothing method has been used to arrive at suitable growth rates probable projections have been generated using uniform gross domestic product gdp growth rate and different values of elasticity of demands three scenarios have been generated which include business as usual bau energy conservation ec and renewable energy ren subsequent analysis on the basis of energy environmental influence and cost has been done in the target year 2030 the projected electricity demand for bau and ren has increased by 107 3 per cent over the base year 2012 and ec electricity demand has grown by 54 3 per cent the estimated values of green house gas ghg for bau and ec in the year 2030 are 245 2 per cent and 152 4 per cent more than the base year and for ren it is 46 2 per cent less sensitivity analysis has been performed to study the effect on the total cost of scenarios policy implications in view of the results obtained are also discussed

are co2 taxes regressive evidence from the danish experience abstract denmark today carries one of the heaviest environmental tax burdens in the world bringing in around 10 of public revenues while evaluations have shown that the danish co 2 and other environmental taxes work as an effective measure to reduce emissions a considerable barrier to increased use of these instruments today seems to be a widespread perception of their socially adverse effects in this article it is demonstrated that co 2 taxes imposed on energy consumption in households as well as in industry do in fact tend to be regressive and therefore have undesirable distributional effects this holds especially for taxes imposed directly on households to analyze this we apply national consumer survey statistics in combination with input output tables

optimal environmental taxation in the presence of other taxes general equilibrium analyses this paper examines the optimal setting of environmental taxes in economies where other distortionary taxes are present we employ analytical and numerical models to explore the degree to which in a second best economy optimal environmental tax rates differ from the rates implied by the pigovian principle according to which the optimal tax rate equals the marginal environmental damages both models indicate contrary to what several analysts have suggested that the optimal tax rate on emissions of a given pollutant is generally less than the rate supported by the pigovian principle moreover the optimal rate is lower the larger are the distortions posed by ordinary taxes numerical results indicate that previous studies may have seriously overstated the size of the optimal carbon tax by disregarding pre existing taxes this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

increasing carbon and material productivity through environmental tax reform abstract environmental tax reform etr a shift in taxation towards environmental taxes has been implemented on a small scale in a number of european countries this paper first gives a short review of the literature about etr an appendix briefly describes the model used for a modelling exercise to explore through scenarios with low and high international energy prices the implications of a large scale etr in the european union sufficient to reach the eu s emission reduction targets for 2020 the paper then reports the results of the exercise the etr results in increased carbon and materials but reduced labour productivity with the emission reductions distributed across all sectors as a reduction in the demand for all fossil fuels there are also small gdp increases for most but not all eu countries for all the scenarios and for the eu as a whole both the environmental and macroeconomic outcomes are better with low than with high energy prices because the former both increases the scale of the etr required to reach the targets and reduces the outflow of foreign exchange to pay for energy imports etr emerges from the exercise as an attractive and cost effective policy for environmental improvement

biofuel developments in mozambique update and analysis of policy potential and reality abstract climate change rising oil prices and concerns about future energy supplies have contributed to a growing interest in using biomass for energy purposes several studies have highlighted the biophysical potential of biofuel production on the african continent and analysts see mozambique as one of the most promising african countries favorable growing conditions and the availability of land water and labor are mentioned as major drivers behind this potential moreover the potential of biofuel production to generate socio economic benefits is reflected in the government s policy objectives for the development of the sector such as reducing fuel import dependency and creating rural employment this article provides an overview of biofuel developments in mozambique and explores to what extent reality matches the suggested potential in the country we conclude that biofuel developments mainly take place in areas near good infrastructure processing and storage facilities where there is skilled labor available and access to services and goods moreover our analysis shows the need to timely harmonize current trends in biofuel developments with the government s policy objectives as the majority of existing and planned projects are not focusing on remote rural areas and in absence of domestic markets principally target external markets

introducing mozleap an integrated long run scenario model of the emerging energy sector of mozambique since recently mozambique is actively developing its large reserves of coal natural gas and hydropower against this background we present the first integrated long run scenario model of the mozambican energy sector our model which we name mozleap is calibrated on the basis of recently developed local energy statistics demographic and urbanization trends as well as cross country based gdp elasticities for biomass consumption sector structure vehicle ownership and energy intensity we develop four scenarios to evaluate the impact of the anticipated surge in natural resources exploration on aggregate trends in energy supply and demand the energy infrastructure and economic growth in mozambique our analysis shows that until 2030 primary energy production is likely to increase at least six fold and probably much more this is roughly 10 times the expected increase in energy demand most of the increase in energy production is destined for export as a result mozambique may well become one of the leading global producers of natural gas and coal we discuss the opportunities and challenges that this resource wealth poses for the country

dynamics of final sectoral energy demand and aggregate energy intensity this paper proposes a regional and sectoral model of global final energy demand for the main end use sectors of consumption industrial commercial and public services residential and road transportation per capita demand is expressed as an s shaped function of per capita income other variables intervene as well like energy prices temperatures and technological trends this model is applied on a panel of 101 countries and 3 aggregates covering the whole world and it explains fairly well past variations in sectoral final consumption since the beginning of the 2000s further the model is used to analyze the dynamics of final energy demand by sector and in total the main conclusion concerns the pattern of change for aggregate energy intensity the simulations performed show that there is no a priori reason for it to exhibit a bell shape as reported in the literature depending on initial conditions the weight of basic needs in total consumption and the availability of modern commercial energy resources various forms might emerge

the long term forecast of taiwan s energy supply and demand leap model application abstract the long term forecasting of energy supply and demand is an extremely important topic of fundamental research in taiwan due to taiwan s lack of natural resources dependence on energy imports and the nation s pursuit of sustainable development in this article we provide an overview of energy supply and demand in taiwan and a summary of the historical evolution and current status of its energy policies as background to a description of the preparation and application of a long range energy alternatives planning system leap model of taiwan s energy sector the taiwan leap model is used to compare future energy demand and supply patterns as well as greenhouse gas emissions for several alternative scenarios of energy policy and energy sector evolution results of scenarios featuring business as usual policies aggressive energy efficiency improvement policies and on schedule retirement of taiwan s three existing nuclear plants are provided and compared along with sensitivity cases exploring the impacts of lower economic growth assumptions a concluding section provides an interpretation of the implications of model results for future energy and climate policies in taiwan

the japanese energy sector current situation and future paths abstract as the world s third leading economy and a major importer of fuels the choice of future energy paths and policies that japan makes in the next few years will have a significant influence on the energy security of the world as a whole and of the northeast asia region in particular in this article we describe the current status of and recent trends in the japanese energy sector including energy demand and supply by fuel and by sector we then discuss the current energy policy situation in japan focusing on policies related to climate change targets renewable energy development and deployment liberalization of energy markets and the evolution of the japanese nuclear power sector the final section of the article presents the structure of the japan leap long range energy alternatives planning software system dataset describes several alternative energy paths for japan with an emphasis on alternative paths for nuclear power development and ghg emission abatement and touches upon key current issues of energy policy facing japan as reflected in the modeling inputs and results