aggregate scale economies market integration and optimal welfare state policy abstract using a two sector two country model with aggregate scale economies and unionisation we show that optimal welfare state policy entails positive levels of unemployment benefits under free trade and capital mobility in this setting economic integration does not reduce the revenue raising capacity of governments and thus does not lead to a race to the bottom in social standards instead trade and capital flows interact with welfare state policies in increasing welfare even when each government acts independently non cooperatively in determining its optimal welfare payment cooperation is shown to improve upon non cooperative outcomes by raising both the generosity of the welfare state and aggregate welfare

a review of the recent empirical literature on displaced workers this article reviews the empirical literature on job displacement job displacement is widespread and strongly countercyclical tending to peak during economic downturns but concentrated in indus

why are corrupt countries less successful in consolidating their budgets following the financial crisis many countries introduced fiscal stimulus packages making budget consolidations in the future rather challenging using a data set for 28 oecd countries spanning the period 1978 2007 we contribute to the literature on success probabilities of consolidation attempts by exploring the impact of corruption and in particular the interplay of corruption and the choice of the policy instrument we find that corruption significantly reduces the success rate when controlling for the change in government expenditures however the impact of corruption is insignificant or at least becomes less pronounced we therefore relate the choice of the fiscal instrument to corruption and find that corrupt countries rely significantly less on expenditure cuts during periods of consolidation attempts we conclude that international organizations should be careful in observing what corrupt countries do when trying to consolidate their budgets

what happens to wages after displacement faced with limited resources policymakers need to know when and where to target support for displaced workers the academic literature offers little support presenting wide ranging results with no consistent explanation for the observed differences in wages after workers are displaced in this paper we demonstrate that the heterogeneity found in the literature is consistent with varying market conditions the results suggest that support for displaced workers can be more efficiently allocated by considering the timing and location of displacement

post layoff earnings among semiconductor workers this study uses administrative data from california s unemployment insurance program to analyze the post layoff earnings of displaced and recalled workers in silicon valley s semiconductor industry

the privatization of electricity distribution in turkey a legal and economic analysis this paper analyzes the recent regulatory reform in the turkish electricity distribution market from a legal and economic perspective we highlight tensions between the judiciary politicians and bureaucracy and discuss their economic consequences the paper engages in a discussion of economic consequences of legal procedures we stress interactions between legal decisions and economic institutions the historical positions of the constitutional court and danistay council of state on privatizations have been ambivalent and it is hard to qualify them as an incentive for privatization and reform despite some recent liberal decisions we address reasons behind their decisions and offer some suggestions toward improving the privatization process

is a uniform social policy better fiscal federalism and factor mobility this paper develops a two country model to study two questions how do the degrees of centralization of redistribution and of factor mobility affect the productive efficiency of the economies what degrees of centralization of redistribution and of factor mobility are likely to be chosen by majority rule the model shows that a system of centralized redistribution can lead to less efficient outcomes if labor or capital are not mobile and an inefficient outcome with incomplete or no factor mobility receives a majority of votes in both countries whenever the structure of labor markets is very different in the two countries

factor mobility and income redistribution in a federation abstract jurisdictions in a federation redistribute income by taxing capital and providing transfers to labor capital and labor move to earn higher returns net of taxes or gross of transfer benefits between jurisdictions in determining its redistributive policy the government for each jurisdiction thus takes into account the effects of its policy on the movement of factors from and to the jurisdiction hence the extent of redistribution depends on the mobility of factors the mobility of capital or labor leads to less redistribution than under autarky however mobility of both capital and labor may lead to more redistribution than if only capital moves as a consequence increased mobility of factors is not necessarily harmful to redistribution

the effect of advance notification of plant closings on unemployment using data from the 1984 displaced worker survey the authors model the determinants of time without work following job displacement for a large sample of workers laid off because of plant shutdowns between 1979 and 1984 the major focus of the paper is on the role of advance notification in mitigating unemployment the estimating procedure accommodates right censored observations stemming from continuing or open ended spells of unemployment advance notification is found to have significantly reduced the duration of unemployment of those notified workers who did not draw unemployment insurance benefits and in particular of those who left the plant prior to termination advance notice had much less effect on the time without work of notified workers whose spell length of unemployment was long enough for them to collect unemployment insurance benefits

the impact of advance notice of plant closings on earnings and the probability of unemployment the authors analyze data from the 1988 cps displaced workers survey to assess the effects of written advance notice of plant closings on post displacement employment and earnings the results sugge

advance notice and postdisplacement joblessness this article investigates whether prenotification decreases postdis placement joblessness reduced form estimates indicate that lengthy written notice is associated with small increases in the probability of avoiding nonemployment but with no decline in average durations significant reductions are found however for household heads women nonwhites and in local labor markets with high unemploy ment rates a new method is developed to control for the endogeneity of voluntarily provided advance notice this procedure suggests that previous research substantially overstates the degree to which preno tification reduces nonemployment and indicates that the actual de crease is between 2 and 5 working days

wage losses for displaced workers many studies have shown that displaced workers experience substantial wage reductions that are strongly related to their predisplacement job tenure and experience this paper is an assessment of whether firm closures or downturns in more broadly defined labor markets drive the extreme wage losses of high tenure high experience displaced workers i show that the relatively high wage losses of high experience displaced workers are primarily due to their heightened sensitivity to downturns in their state industry and occupation however the large wage losses of high tenure displaced workers are not explained by their sensitivity to these local downturns one interpretation of these facts is that firm specialization is linked primarily to firm specific experience but not to general labor market experience

potential impacts of electricity price changes on price formation in the economy a social accounting matrix price modeling analysis for turkey recent reforms in the turkish electricity sector since 2001 aim to introduce a tariff system that reflects costs this is expected to affect the production and consumer prices of electricity the changes in electricity prices are then reflected in production costs in other segments of the economy subsequently producer and consumer prices will be affected the potential impact of the changes in electricity prices that the ongoing electricity reforms in turkey will bring about may have important implications on the price formation in economic activities and the cost of living for households this paper evaluates the potential impacts of changes in electricity prices from a social accounting matrix sam price modeling perspective it is found that based on the estimated price multipliers that prices in the energy producing sectors mining and iron and steel manufacturing sectors would be affected more severely than the remaining sectors of the economy consumer prices are affected slightly less than producer prices

an evaluation of the transitional turkish electricity balancing and settlement market lessons for the future balancing and settlement market is a crucial part of restructured turkish electricity market in this framework the main purpose of this study is to examine whether the prices constituted in the transitional balancing and settlement market reflect the real cost of imbalances although it is observed that the prices are not powerful in indicating the real cost of imbalances turkey has the opportunity to form a well functioning market within the context of planned new market structure turkey needs to define a proper roadmap reckoning the points mentioned in this paper to be able to achieve her objectives

a tale of employment decline in two cities how bad was the worst of times this paper describes the communitywide effects on employment earnings and labor mobility of the severe employment declines that occurred in major industries in the buffalo new york and providence rhode island smsas in the period 1960 70 the author analyzes the work histories drawn from longitudinal social security administration data files of about 20 000 men with job experience in those years and smsas a major finding is that voluntary separations exceeded employment reductions in nearly all industries indicating that contrary to popular belief relatively few workers in those cities were forced out of their jobs in addition the workers studied were very mobile about one third of job changers migrated out of their original smsa and many changers moved into different industries some workers who lost their jobs suffered severe earnings loss but the total earnings loss was not particularly large the author discusses the policy implications of those findings

exploring the options for carbon dioxide mitigation in turkish electric power industry system dynamics approach electric power industry has a huge carbon mitigation potential fundamentally because there are large carbon free renewable resource options in turkey with growing demand in electricity consumption and incentives offered for natural gas fired electricity generation co2 emissions sourced from electric power industry had tripled over the last two decades current governmental strategy focuses on energy security and resource diversity in a growing economy and does not articulate sufficient mitigation targets and appropriate regulations in this research an original dynamic simulation model is built validated and analyzed to explore the options for carbon mitigation in turkish electric power industry model structure represents the investment dispatch and pricing heuristics as well as the natural resource base of electricity generation in turkey it operates on annual basis over 30 years to simulate installed capacities and generations of power plants with alternative resources and their resulting co2 emissions the analysis presented in this paper reveals that there are mitigation options below 50 of business as usual growth with common policy options such as feed in tariffs investment subsidies and carbon taxes the model can serve as an experimental platform for further analysis of problems related to carbon mitigation in turkish electricity sector

rent dissipation through electricity prices of publicly owned utilities a public choice model is presented in order to explain the fact that publicly owned electricity utilities rarely price at marginal cost in practice it is shown that if i government revenues are raised through proportional taxes ii median income is less than mean income and iii the share of a consumer s spending on electricity decreases with income then the price resulting from a majority rule and universal voting is below marginal cost the determination of a fixed subscription fee is also considered empirical evidence of our results is obtained from pricing and consumption data for hydro qu6bec

capture and ideology in the economic theory of politics the economic theory of regulation long ago put public interest theories of politics to rest these theories have correctly been viewed as normative wishings rather than explanations of real world phenomena they have been replaced by models of political behavior that are consistent with the rest of microeconomics anthony downs 1957 james buchanan and gordon tullock 1965 george stigler 1971 sam peltzman 1976 recently however debate has arisen over whether some version of a public interest theory of regulation will have to be readmitted to our thinking about actions and results in the political arena what is at issue is the empirical importance of the altruistic publicly interested goals of rational actors in determining legislative and regulatory outcomes james kau and paul rubin 1979 kalt 1981 peltzman 1982 this study assesses the nature and significance of publicly interested objectives in a particular instance of economic policymaking u s senate voting on coal strip mining regulations the existence of such objectives is of course no contradiction of the economic view of human behavior kenneth arrow 1972 gary becker 1974 and may well be rooted in genetic biological history becker 1976 jack hirshleifer 1978 generally however individuals altruistic publicly interested goals have been given little attention this reflects the judgment that such goals are so empirically unimportant as to allow the use of occam s razor in positive models or well founded apprehensions that these goals are unusually difficult to identify measure and analyze notwithstanding the latter problem we find that approaches which confine themselves to a view of political actors as narrowly egocentric maximizers explain and predict legislative outcomes poorly the tracking and dissecting of the determinants of voting on coal strip mining policy suggest that the economic theory of politics has been prematurely closed to a broader conception of political behavior

fiscal policy in unionized labor markets abstract this paper investigates the effects of fiscal policy on economic activity public finances welfare and income distribution in a dynamic general equilibrium model with a unionized labor market the paper shows that debt financed increases of public employment wages of public sector employees unemployment benefits and labor taxes put pressure on unions wage claims leading to higher private sector wages lower employment capital and output in addition increases of public employment public wages and unemployment benefits increase workers utility relative to the pre policy change equilibrium during the transition but not in the long run instead workers utility decreases at any time horizon when labor taxes increase capitalists always benefit from increases in taxes on labor but their welfare decreases when public spending goes up finally the paper investigates the extent to which the way the government balances its budget affects these results

labor market conditions and the reemployment of displaced workers the authors of this study use data from the january 1984 current population survey to examine the impact of local labor market conditions on the financial losses of displaced manufacturing workers they find that strong overall growth in the local economy reduced the economic losses of white collar workers whose industry of displacement was declining but not of blue collar workers in the same situation most older poorly educated blue collar workers with long tenure at their pre layoff job suffered large financial losses even when displaced in a growing local economy all workers including those who were young and well educated suffered large financial losses when located in a depressed local economy

tales of fiscal adjustment fiscal adjustments why they can be expansionary this paper examines the evidence on fiscal adjustments in oecd countries from the early 1960s to today the results shed light on the recently observed phenomenon of fiscal tightening that produces non keynesian expansionary effects one interpretation is that a serious fiscal tightening increases demand wealth rises when future tax burdens decline and when interest rates decline credibility is restored and inflation or default risks abate both consumption and investment rise for this effect to produce an expansion the tightening must be sizeable and occur after a period of stress when the budget is quickly deteriorating and public debt is building up another interpretation emphasizes the supply side typically a fiscal consolidation based on tax increases is short lived to be long lasting it must include cuts in public employment transfers and government wages to be politically possible such a policy must be supported by trade unions these measures result in more efficient labour markets and boost the supply side based both on statistical evidence and on a detailed analysis of ten cases of major fiscal adjustment this article provides cautious support to the supply side view without denying a more limited role for the demand side channel alberto alesina and silvia ardagna

the trade balance and fiscal policy in the oecd abstract we explore the short run impact of movements in different components of fiscal policy on the trade balance exports and imports for a panel of oecd countries over 1960 1995 we find that the composition of a shift in fiscal policy and the exchange rate regime matter for its transmission to the external account the strongest result is that an expansion in wage government consumption causes a contraction in exports and a deterioration of the trade balance especially under flexible exchange rates we discuss the implications of our results for fiscal and current account adjustment

a critique on the effectiveness of tax expenditure limitations the principal purpose of this study is to investigate the probable impact of tax and spending limitations on tax burdens and state expenditures this is accomplished via a systematic evaluation of the alternative proposals associated with tax limitation legislation in particular this paper analyzes the linking of state public sector growth to inflation limiting tax burdens to a percent of personal income the inclusion of escape clauses in the enabling legislation and the evolution of these tax limitations into legalized minimums

government size government debt and globalization this article empirically investigates the effect of globalization on government size and debt using panel heterogeneous cointegration techniques to a panel of developing and developed countries i

discrimination and the unemployment durations of white and black males in this study we develop a model to decompose the longer unemployment duration of blacks into discriminatory and non discriminatory components by extending becker s theory of discrimination to job search theory the discriminatory component is seen to be the result of two separate effects first a white treatment advantage shortens the unemployment duration of whites because they receive more frequent and higher wage offers than would prevail in the absence of discrimination for working alongside blacks second a black treatment disadvantage lengthens the jobless spell of blacks because blacks receive lower wage offers than would prevail without discrimination as discriminating employers extract quasi rents from their labour we estimate our model using date from the cps displaced workers survey the results show that 3 81 of the 4 58 weeks longer unemployment spell for blacks is due to discrimination with 3 11 weeks resulting from the white treatment advantage and 0 7 weeks emanating from the black

a rent seeking model of tels tax and expenditure limits or tels are constitutional or statutory constraints on the fiscal powers of government since the taxpayer revolt beginning in the late 1970s tels have been introduced in twenty three states in recent years a number of studies attempting to test the impact of tels have found little evidence that tels significantly reduced the growth of state government in this study we challenge the implicit leviathan model that underlies most of these studies and offer an alternative rent seeking model econometric tests provide support for this rentseeking model and indicate that tels have been significant in reducing the growth of state government at least in the short run

analysing success of regulatory policy transfers evidence from turkish energy markets abstract economic regulation of public utilities has become a worldwide phenomenon with the preceding privatisation stream it is questionable to transfer regulatory models hastily without customising the policy options or introducing necessary institutional reforms enabling the achievement of expected results of regulatory reform institutional configuration of a country affects credibility of regulatory commitments quality of regulatory design and way of policy transfer turkey s energy market regulation experience confirms the decisive role of institutions in shaping the regulatory framework

the economic consequences of labor mobility unlike most previous research on the relative changes in earnings of job stayers and job changers this study examines the variance in earnings changes rather than simply average changes men and women rather than only men and the five year period following job change rather than only the first year or two the author finds great variability in earnings changes both within and across race and gender groups notably men gained more from quits and except in the case of low wage workers lost less from layoffs than women also men suffered a much smaller penalty than women for repeated job changes for all groups the percentage difference between earnings before and after leaving a job generally persisted for several years

country characteristics and the incidence of capital income taxation on wages an empirical assessment this paper examines the incidence of corporate income taxes on wages using data from the us bureau of labor statistics for 13 oecd countries within a wage bargaining framework our econometric analysis shows that a substantial share of the corporate tax burden is shifted from capital to labour however the magnitude of this shift is influenced importantly by country characteristics affecting the process of wage determination such as the degree of capital mobility a country s relative influence over the world price of output and trade unions strength

the welfare state and competitiveness in all industrial countries fiscal policy is increasingly about redistribution in this paper the authors study redistribution across different types of agents in a world characterized by the presence of labor unions and distortionary taxation they show that an increase in transfers financed by distortionary taxation has nonlinear effects on unit labor costs relative to the other countries depending on the degree of centralization of the wage setting process in the labor market the authors find considerable empirical support for the model in a sample of fourteen oecd countries copyright 1997 by american economic association

non keynesian effects of fiscal policy in oecd economies an empirical study this article explores the hypothesis that the propensity to consume out of income varies in a nonlinear fashion with fiscal variables and in particular with government debt per capita using panel data from 18 organization for economic cooperation and development oecd countries we examine whether there is any empirical evidence to support the hypothesis that households move from non ricardian to ricardian behaviour as government debt reaches high levels and as uncertainty about future taxes increases our results provide support for this hypothesis and also suggest that private and government consumption are complements in the household utility function

interindustry variation in the costs of job displacement job displacement entails a substantial wage reduction for most displaced workers we show that the mean reduction the tenure profile of reductions and the experience profile of reductions all vary substantially across industries we then link this interindustry variation to analogous variation in firm size unionization wage levels and the incidence of employer provided training while these industry characteristics explain some of the interindustry variation in mean wage reductions they do not explain variation in the tenure or experience profiles of wage reductions

can law impose competition a critical discussion and evidence from the turkish electricity generation market electricity markets have undergone regulatory reforms since the early 1980s around the world technical analyses of these reforms usually pay lip service to the influence of politics over regulatory processes existing studies examine certain aspects of the market such as demand pricing and efficiency and they touch upon political issues only passingly when economic models cannot provide sufficient explanation this approach problematically takes politics as an ad hoc variable this study shows that electricity is intrinsically a political good and argues that any meaningful reform effort should take institutions as the starting point rather than a residual the argument that politics has to be an endogenous variable in any model aspiring to explain behavior in electricity markets is demonstrated in the paper the evidence for the political good character of electricity is found by examining the turkish regulatory reform for which it is argued that there is not a satisfactory relationship between expected and realized gains

the causes of welfare state expansion deindustrialization or globalization an influential line of argument holds that globalization causes economic uncertainty and spurs popular demands for compensatory welfare state spending this article argues that the relationship between globalization and welfare state expansion is spurious and that the engine of welfare state expansion since the 1960s has been deindustrialization based on cross sectional time series data for fifteen oecd countries the authors show that there is no relationship between globalization and the level of labor market risks in terms of employment and wages whereas the uncertainty and dislocations caused by deindustrialization have spurred electoral demands for welfare state compensation and risk sharing yet while differential rates of deindustri alization explain differences in the overall size of the welfare state its particular character in terms of the share of direct government provision and the equality of transfer payments is shaped by government partisanship the argument has implications for the study and the future of the welfare state that are very different from those suggested in the globalization literature

electricity restructuring in turkey abstract turkey implemented the electricity sector reform by which the electricity market law no 4628 passed in february 2001 recently all segments of the turkish electricity sector are dominated by a vertically integrated public owned monopoly turkiye elektrik kurumu the turkish electricity institution the turkish electricity reform involves vertical deintegration of generation transmission and distribution introduction of competition into generation and retail sale establishment of an independent regulatory authority and privatization of public generation and distribution entities this article provides an overview of the turkish electricity sector reform and defines some problems that may affect the reform success

the influence of political distortions on economic performance alberto alesina is the nathaniel ropes professor of political economy and chairman of the department of economics at harvard university in this interview he discusses with brian snowdon his views on several important contemporary issues including politics and the business cycle budget deficits currency unions the european union the size of nations economic growth inequality democracy foreign aid ethnic fractionalisation and the welfare state in the us and europe

a positive model of tax structure the model of tax structure developed in this paper is one in which the composition of revenues and the structure of specific taxes arise naturally as the result of self interested political behavior it is assumed that political agents choose tax structure so as to minimize the political costs or expected net loss in votes associated with raising a budget of given size several hypotheses concerning the nature of political cost functions are developed and applied to an explanation of the differences among u s states in their reliance on income taxation the empirical application emphasizes differences in political constraints across jurisdictions in the belief that much can be learned about the choice of policy instruments by studying structural adjustments in response to varying constraints the paper discusses how the proposed approach differs from or is consistent with that adopted by other authors and how the estimating equation relates to other empirical research in the literature

the reform in the turkish natural gas market a critical evaluation turkey is in a strategically advantageous position in terms of its natural gas market being in the middle of europe and energy rich countries of central asia it can be an energy corridor between these two regions it can import gas from a number of countries and diversify its sources this situation may also provide motivation for a competitive gas market the recent reform in the market which began in 2001 was an attempt to strengthen the natural gas market to this end however the reform has not worked out as expected so far this article discusses recent restructuring efforts in the turkish natural gas market we focus on the legal structure and economic consequences of the legal change within the international economic relations after presenting a detailed discussion of the legal framework we draw attention to the problems of the industry and difficulties in the transition to a more competitive market structure in the end we touch upon some regulatory issues and potential conflicts

fiscal consolidation under fixed exchange rates abstract we present the fixed exchange rate version of the obstfeld and rogoff model and analyze the international transmission of fiscal policy shocks the welfare effects of an unanticipated contraction in government expenditure in the home country are shown to depend crucially on the way in which world money stock is set if home authorities alone are responsible for pegging the exchange rate a fiscal adjustment leads to a decrease in the real interest rate stimulates private consumption and limits the contraction in world output compared with a situation in which a cooperative scheme is implemented the model is then used to propose a new interpretation of recent events in the eu countries that have enacted restrictive fiscal policies while pegging their currencies to the dm

costs of taxation and the size of government existing theory on the form of government suggests that a parliamentary system promotes a larger size of government than does a presidential system this paper extends the existing theory by allowing for distortionary taxation a main result is that if taxation is sufficiently distortionary the parliamentary system may promote a smaller size of government than the presidential system the proposed mechanism appears consistent with several empirical patterns in the data that cannot be explained by other theories

regulatory reform in turkish energy industry an analysis the republic of turkey has initiated an ambitious reform program in the most important segments of her energy market which requires privatization liberalization as well as a radical restructuring of these industries however there is no consensus that the measures introduced are optimal the present article attempts first to evaluate the regulatory framework created by the laws of 2001 in terms of economic efficiency considerations and second to determine what still needs to be done to improve the current situation the paper not only provides an analysis of these reforms but also lists some policy suggestions the study concludes that despite relatively good legislative framework in practice the reforms in turkey are far from ideal as they are mainly in the form of textbook reforms and therefore a significant amount of work still lies ahead of turkey to set up a fully fledged energy market

political institutions of electricity regulation the case of turkey abstract turkey has been going through a liberalization process in its electricity market over the last decade so far the regulatory content of the market reforms has been in the center of attention in the literature to the negligence of regulatory governance however recent studies which applied the theoretical insights of new institutional economics to utilities regulation have demonstrated that political endowments of the country draw the boundaries to which extent such regulatory content can be effectively implemented in line with these studies this paper adopts an institutional approach and attempts to identify the political endowments of turkey in order to further analyze whether the market reforms succeeded in bringing about sufficient checks to cure the institutional problems in other words the paper takes a picture of the overall regulatory arena the results show that the current regulatory structure especially government regulator relations yet fails to meet good regulatory governance criteria the paper also provides some policy suggestions

electricity demand of manufacturing sector in turkey a translog cost approach abstract this paper models factor demand for manufacturing sector in turkey we estimated a translog cost function with four factor consist of capital labor intermediate input and electricity over the 1980 2001 our objective taking in the consideration electricity as production input was twofold on the one hand to estimate the price elasticity of electricity demand in manufacturing sector and on the other hand to use cross price and morishima elasticities of substitution results for structural analysis regarding effects of electricity liberalization which initiated in 2001 empirical result shows that electricity demand is relatively price sensitive 0 85 our result in terms of electricity price is consistent with the previous studies while electricity labor and electricity capital inputs are complementary results indicate the existence of substitution possibilities between electricity and intermediate input this means that changes in electricity prices have impact on labor demand and investment demand these results have important implications for public policy

an empirical analysis of state and local tax structure in the context of the leviathan model of government this paper has investigated the ability of an extreme and relatively simple model of political behavior to explain the level of revenues generated by state and local governments in general the behavior of these governments appears to be at least consistent with many of the fiscal outcomes predicted by the leviathan theory several although not all of the specific leviathan theory hypotheses considered received empirical support the evidence was consistent with the hypothesis that states utilizing comprehensive tax bases especially a personal income tax can be expected to generate higher levels of aggregate revenues strong support was also observed for the contention that intergovernmental competition by general purpose substate governments may serve as a substitute for constitutional constraints in limiting the revenue generating power of local governments

the power to tax analytical foundations of a fiscal constitution preface 1 taxation in constitutional perspective 2 natural government a model of leviathan 3 constraints on base and rate structure 4 the taxation of commodities 5 taxation through time income taxes capital taxes and public debt 6 money creation and taxation 7 the disposition of public revenues 8 the domain of politics 9 open economy federalism and taxing authority 10 toward authentic tax reform prospects and prescriptions epilogue notes selected bibliography index

fiscal activism under inflation targeting and non atomistic wage setting this paper presents a game between a fiscal authority an independent central bank and non atomistic wage setters the effects of fiscal activism and inflation targeting on labour market outcomes are analysed the results suggest that inflation targeting provides incentive for wage restraint moreover real wages are increasing in the degree of fiscal activism as wage setters exploit the response of a fiscal authority seeking to promote employment numerical results suggest that the benefits of targeting inflation are larger when the government pursues an activist policy and therefore that there is some substitutability between fiscal and monetary rules

advance notice job search and postdisplacement earnings three to 5 years after job displacements workers receiving the advance notice mandated by current law earn approximately 10 more than their nonnotified counterparts this differential is not the result of firms systematically notifying persons with favorable reemployment prospects early warnings are disproportionately obtained by individuals expected to earn relatively low wages in subsequent employment it is not clear however whether prenotification has a causal effect the notification differential may occur because the advance notice is frequently provided by employers offering other kinds of adjustment assistance such as job counseling skill retraining supple mental unemployment benefits or outplacement assistance

fiscal stabilizations when do they work and why abstract this paper studies the determinants and channels through which fiscal contractions influence the dynamics of the debt to gdp ratio and gdp growth using data from a panel of oecd countries the paper shows that the success of fiscal adjustments in decreasing the debt to gdp ratio depends on the size of the fiscal contraction and less on its composition the rate of growth of output matters too but higher gdp growth does not drive the success of a fiscal stabilization in contrast whether a fiscal adjustment is expansionary depends largely on the composition of the fiscal maneuvre in particular stabilizations implemented by cutting public spending lead to higher gdp growth rates the effects of the composition on growth work mostly through the labor market rather than through agents expectations of future fiscal policy finally the evidence suggests that successful and expansionary fiscal contractions are not the result of accompanying expansionary monetary policy or exchange rate devaluations

the politics of regulation in the turkish electricity market abstract turkey began reforming the electricity market in 2001 the regulatory reform aimed to liberalize the market however the institutional and political structure was not ready for creating an efficiently working competition the independent regulator did not have both experience and will to direct the industry to a more competitive environment currently the reform has slowed down and political preferences drive the industry this paper studies the reasons for the slowdown in the reform efforts by focusing on the relationships between the government judiciary and the independent regulator we conclude that strategic behaviors of players in the market including the judiciary the government and the regulator have made the introduction of competition to the market more costly

price formation in an open economy theory and evidence for the united kingdom 1951 1991 price formation is an increasingly important part of modern macroeconomics however the empirical literature on price setting is diverse and confused this paper uses cointegration techniques to test theories of price setting on uk aggregate data for 1951 91 we find i domestic prices are determined by both domestic costs and world prices and ii at the macroeconomic level prices are related to marginal cost rather than average or normal cost

fiscal policy profits and investment this paper evaluates the effects of fiscal policy on investment using a panel of oecd countries we find a sizeable negative effect of public spending and in particular of its wage component on profits and on business investment this result is consistent with different theoretical models in which government employment creates wage pressure for the private sector various types of taxes also have negative effects on profits but interestingly the effects of government spending on investment are larger than those of taxes our results can explain the so called non keynesian i e expansionary effects of fiscal adjustments jel e22 e62

economic globalization and the welfare state in affluent democracies 1975 1998 prior scholarship is sharply divided on how or if globalization influences welfare states globalization s effects may be positive causing expansion negative triggering crisis and reduction curvilinear contributing to convergence or insignificant we bring new evidence to bear on this crucial debate with a pooled time series analysis of two measures of the welfare state and 16 indicators of economic globalization for 17 affluent democracies from 1975 to 1998 the analysis suggests that 1 state of the art welfare state models warrant revision in the globalization era 2 most indicators of economic globalization do not have significant effects 3 the few significant globalization effects are in different directions and often inconsistent with extant theories 4 the globalization effects are far smaller than the effects of domestic political and economic factors and 5 these effects are not systematically different for liberal vs nonliberal welfare state regimes european vs non european countries or with four alternative dependent variables increased globalization and a modest convergence of the welfare state have occurred but globalization does not unambiguously cause welfare state expansion crisis and reduction or convergence bisherige befunde der sozialwissenschaftlichen forschung zum kausalen verhaltnis von globalisierung und wohlfahrtsstaat sind nicht eindeutig danach kann globalisierung positive effekte haben und zu einem ausbau an wohlfahrtsstaatlichkeit fuhren eine krise des wohlfahrtsstaates oder leistungsreduktionen herbeifuhren kurvilineare wirkungen aufweisen und zu konvergenz beitragen als auch vollkommen insignifikant sein unsere gepoolte zeitreihenanalyse von wohlfahrtsstaatlichkeit und globalisierung in 17 reichen demokratien 1975 1998 hat folgende befunde zu tage gefordert 1 im zeitalter der globalisierung erscheinen bestehende wohlfahrtsstaatsmodelle revisionsbedurftig 2 die mehrzahl der okonomischen globalisierungsindikatoren weist keine signifikanten effekte auf 3 die wenigen signifikanten effekte zeigen in unterschiedliche richtungen und stimmen haufig nicht mit bestehenden theoretischen annahmen uberein 4 die globalisierungseffekte sind deutlich kleiner als die effekte binnenpolitischer variablen und okonomischer faktoren 5 diese effekte unterscheiden sich in liberalen und nicht liberalen wohlfahrtsregimen bzw europaischen und nicht europaischen landern nicht systematisch von einander im analysezeitraum konnen wir sowohl einen anstieg der verschiedenen globalisierungsindikatoren sowie eine moderate konvergenz der verschiedenen wohlfahrtsstaaten konstatieren jedoch kann der prozess der globalisierung nicht eindeutig als kausale ursache fur die unterschiedlichen entwicklungsrichtungen in den verschiedenen wohlfahrtsstaaten identifiziert werden

on the electricity shortage price and electricity theft nexus abstract pakistan is facing severe electricity shortfall of its history since 2006 several measures have been implemented in order to mitigate electricity shortage the focus has been on raising the installed capacity of electricity generation and transmission the present policy results in expensive thermal electricity generation mostly using expensive and environmentally hazardous furnace oil and inability of utilities to recover their cost of supply although there is unprecedented rise in electricity tariffs this study concentrates on the electricity demand and traces the relationship between electricity shortfalls tariff rate and electricity theft in the background of recent electricity crisis using the data for the period 1985 2010 we employed the granger causality test through error correction model and out of sample causality through variance decomposition method empirical evidence shows that electricity theft greatly influences electricity shortfalls through lowering investment and inefficient use of electricity the study concludes that electricity crisis cannot be handled without combating rampant electricity theft in the country

the importance of composition of fiscal policy evidence from different exchange rate regimes abstract we study the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policies in an open economy we emphasize two transmission mechanisms the cost channel by which wage government spending and labor taxes raise the real wage firms must pay and the exchange rate channel by which the nominal exchange rate shifts induced by fiscal policy have real effects if some prices and wages are sticky the latter channel implies that changes in wage government spending or in labor taxation should have different effects under flexible than under fixed exchange rates in a 1964 93 panel of oecd countries we find significant evidence for both channels moreover we find that the real product wage and profitability are more responsive than quantities employment and output to fiscal policy innovations

fiscal policy composition public debt and economic activity this paper uses a dynamic general equilibrium model i toinvestigate how changes to different spending and revenue items of the budgetaffect economic activity and public finance and ii to evaluate thewelfare costs of alternative fiscal policy maneuvers the paper shows that unlike an increase in government purchases of final goods an increasein public employment and transfers can have a contractionary effect onthe economy in the same way as a rise in tax rates it also suggests thatfiscal adjustments implemented by cutting spending items increasehouseholds welfare and are more effective in reducing the primary deficitand public debt than are increases in tax rates

government size and unemployment evidence from industrial countries using data from 19 industrial countries for the period 1985 to 2002 this paper analyzes how the size of the government sector affects unemployment controlling for the impact of the business cycle as well as for the impact of all major labor market institutions and unobserved country effects we find that a large government sector is likely to increase unemployment it appears to have a particularly detrimental effect on women and the low skilled and to substantially increase long term unemployment it seems that dominant stateowned enterprises a large share of public investment in total investment as well as high top marginal income tax rates and low income threshold levels at which they apply are particularly detrimental

a median voter analysis of variations in the use of property taxes among local governments this paper explores the variations among local governments in the composition of tax revenues or more specifically in the relative use of property taxes using a median voter framework various hypotheses are developed concerning the factors that should influence the relative use of property taxes a cross sectional sample of central cities is employed to test the hypotheses the empirical results are consistent with the hypotheses

differences in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan u s family income inequality a cross county comparison abstract u s family income inequality is examined using 1990 cenus of population data for the 3109 counties and independent cities in the 48 contiguous states use of counties as the unit of analysis extends previous research on u s income inequality that relied on national state or metropolitan level data in addition including both metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties allows us to determine whether income inequality differs between them after controlling for a variety of labor market demographic and regional characteristics as another innovation we also consider whether counties that experienced recent structural changes in industry composition have higher income inequality

openness government size and the terms of trade this paper investigates the relationship between trade openness and the size ofngovernments both theoretically and empirically we argue that openness can increase the size of governments through two channels 1 a terms of trade externality whereby trade lowers the domestic cost of taxation and 2 the demand for insurance whereby trade raises risk and public transfers we provide a unified framework for studying and testing these two mechanisms our main theoretical prediction is that the relative strength of the two explanations depends on a key parameter namely the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign goods moreover while the first mechanism is inefficient from the standpoint of world welfare the second is instead optimal in the empirical part of the paper we provide new evidence on the positive association between openness and government size and we explore its determinants consistently with the terms of trade externality channel we show that the correlation is contingent on a low elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign goods our findings raise warnings that globalization may have led to inefficiently large governments

improving electricity efficiency in turkey by addressing illegal electricity consumption a governance approach abstract recent reform activities to liberate and privatize the turkish utility energy sector through deregulation have transformed the scope of the historically government owned corporations however during the free market process approach power theft has become an issue that requires national attention this paper examines the current use of two governance tools privatization and regulation and suggests two others to promote a framework of efficient electricity distribution grants and public information the capacity of the tools to provide a solution to power losses is discussed while considering the barrier of political acceptability in regions of the country where pockets of resistance exist

labor market institutions and wage inequality the authors investigate how labor market institutions such as unemployment insurance unions firing regulations and minimum wages have affected the evolution of wage inequality among male workers results of estimations using data on institutions in eleven oecd countries indicate that changes in labor market institutions can account for much of the change in wage inequality between 1973 and 1998 factors found to have been negatively associated with male wage inequality are union density the strictness of employment protection law unemployment benefit duration unemployment benefit generosity and the size of the minimum wage over the 26 year period institutional changes were associated with a 23 reduction in male wage inequality in france where minimum wages increased and employment protection became stricter but with an increase of up to 11 in the united states and united kingdom where unions became less powerful and in the united states minimum wages fell

studying the role of political competition in the evolution of government size over long horizons here we argue for the use of cointegration and error correction analysis to combine economic factors that are nonstationary with political factors that are stationary into an empirical model of the evolution of public policy over long periods the approach is applied to disentangle the contributions of economics and politics to the evolution of public expenditure by the government of canada over 130 years political competition emerges as the primary political factor affecting government size

a theory of competition among pressure groups for political influence this paper presents a theory of competition among pressure groups for political influence political equilibrium depends on the efficiency of each group in producing pressure the effect of additional pressure on their influence the number of persons in different groups and the deadweight cost of taxes and subsidies an increase in deadweight costs discourages pressure by subsidized groups and encourages pressure by taxpayers this analysis unifies the view that governments correct market failures with the view that they favor the politically powerful both are produced by the competition for political favors

the political economy of fiscal consolidations in the context of recent research in political economy this paper addresses the policy problem of fiscal consolidation in terms of three types of issues i the macroeconomic effects of alternative strategies to consolidate ii the institutional setups conducive to a consolidation and iii the best strategy for implementing a consolidation in order to maximize its political feasibility one methodological feature of this survey is an emphasis on policy feasibility one methodological feature of this survey is an emphasis on policy issues in order to bridge the gap between the level of abstraction of politico economic models of fiscal policy and the issues faced by a policymaker when attempting a fiscal consolidation

uncertain fiscal consolidations the paper explores the macroeconomic consequences of fiscal consolidations whose timing and composition are uncertain drawing on the evidence in alesina and ardagna 2010 we emphasize whether or not the fiscal consolidation is driven by tax rises or expenditure cuts we find that the composition of the fiscal consolidation its duration the monetary policy stance the level of government debt and expectations over the likelihood and composition of fiscal consolidations all matter in determining the extent to which a given consolidation is expansionary and or successful in stabilizing government debt

economic freedom and unemployment around the world author affiliation horst feldmann department of economics and international development university of bath bath ba2 7ay united kingdom h feldmann bath ac uk1 datathis paper applies the economic freedom of the world efw index that has been developed by a group of north american economists under the auspices of the canadian fraser institute with the aid of a worldwide network of further economists and institutes gwartney and lawson 2005 the index has often been assessed to be a good measure of economic freedom and thus has been widely used in the empirical literature it subdivides economic freedom into five areas i size of government ii legal structure and security of property rights iii access to sound money iv freedom to trade internationally and v regulation of credit labor and business for variable definitions and sources see appendix a the two main authors of the index have explained their concept and measurement of economic freedom in each report e g gwartney and lawson 2005 and elsewhere e g gwartney and lawson 2003 economic freedom is complex and multidimensional a major advantage of the efw index is that it reflects all aspects of economic freedom and adequately groups them into five different areas to provide information on the overall linkage between economic freedom and unemployment we use the efw summary index additionally we use the five area indices this allows us to analyze which economic freedoms have the strongest effects as the correlation matrix indicates there is substantial correlation among several of the area variables appendix b therefore we estimate specifications that include these measures one at a time however the correlation matrix also indicates that the area variables are not highly correlated with each other therefore we also present specifications in which we include them jointly estimating the effects of the area variables both separately and jointly allows us to check the robustness of our results for these variables the efw index not only has the advantage that it covers all aspects of economic freedom and adequately groups them into five different areas it also has the advantage that it is based largely on objective data these data and the ratings derived on the basis thereof may be verified by anybody aspects of economic freedom that cannot be measured objectively mainly in the areas legal structure and property rights and regulations are measured using subjective data from the global competitiveness reports of the world economic forum and the international country risk guides of the prs group the data in the global competitiveness reports are based on annual surveys among approximately 4000 to 5000 senior business executives the data in the international country risk guides are computed from an in house panel of experts of the prs group in both cases the data are compiled professionally for example the selection of respondents for the world economic forum s surveys is largely representative of the structure of each economy and the respondents have excellent knowledge of their country s economy the international country risk guides are based on the assessments of experienced experts 1for each variable included in the efw index a total of 38 the relevant data are translated into ratings with the aid of a formula that is published in the reports of the fraser institute the rating scale ranges from 0 to 10 with 0 representing the lowest and 10 the highest degree of economic freedom the area ratings for each of the five areas are calculated as the arithmetic means of the ratings for their respective components in turn the summary rating is the average of the five area ratings applying the most recent methodology which was further developed over the years the efw index was calculated for every fifth year from 1970 on plus for the years 2001 2002 and 2003

cost function estimates scale economies and technological progress in the turkish electricity generation sector abstract turkish electricity sector has undergone significant institutional changes since 1984 the recent developments since 2001 including the setting up of a regulatory agency to undertake the regulation of the sector and increasing participation of private investors in the field of electricity generation are of special interest this paper estimates cost functions and investigates the degree of scale economies overinvestment and technological progress in the turkish electricity generation sector for the period 1984 2006 using long run and short run translog cost functions estimations were done for six groups of firms public and private the results indicate existence of scale economies throughout the period of analysis hence declining long run average costs the paper finds empirical support for the averch johnson effect until 2001 i e firms overinvested in an environment where there are excess returns to capital but this effect was reduced largely after 2002 technological progress deteriorated slightly from 1984 1993 to 1994 2001 but improved after 2002 overall the paper found that regulation of the market under the newly established regulating agency after 2002 was effective and there are potential gains from such regulation

the output effect of fiscal consolidation plans abstract we show that the correct experiment to evaluate the effects of a fiscal adjustment is the simulation of a multi year fiscal plan rather than of individual fiscal shocks simulation of fiscal plans adopted by 16 oecd countries over a 30 year period supports the hypothesis that the effects of consolidations depend on their design fiscal adjustments based upon spending cuts are much less costly in terms of output losses than tax based ones and have especially low output costs when they consist of permanent rather than stop and go changes in taxes and spending the difference between tax based and spending based adjustments appears not to be explained by accompanying policies including monetary policy it is mainly due to the different responses of business confidence and private investment

the rise and fall of centralized wage bargaining during the three decades spanning the early 1950s to the early 1980s the wage setting process in most northern european countries was dominated by centralized bargaining i e peak level labor and employer associations set wages nationwide in the early 1980s centralized wage bargaining began to collapse in this paper we assess a novel explanation for both the initial establishment of a centralized wage setting process and its subsequent collapse according to our theory centralized wage bargaining was set up as a response to the spillovers created by the unemployment benefit program its collapse was the result of the increase in the productivity gap across workers brought about by equipment specific technological progress and equipment skill complementarity

trade and the political economy of redistribution this paper shows how international trade affects the support for policies which redistribute income between workers across sectors and how the existence of such policies changes the support for trade liberalization workers who are imperfectly mobile across sectors vote on whether to subsidize ailing sectors thereby redistributing income but also distorting the labor allocation we present three main findings first redistributive policies are more likely to arise in a small open than in a closed economy for a broad range of parameters second if a redistributive policy is adopted in both situations income differences across sectors tend to be lower in the open economy third the possibility to redistribute income across sectors raises the political support for trade liberalization in the first place

central bank independence centralization of wage bargaining inflation and unemployment theory and some evidence abstract this paper proposes a conceptual framework to investigate the effects of central bank independence of the degree of centralization of wage bargaining and of the interaction between those institutional variables on real wages unemployment and inflation in a framework in which unions are averse to inflation this aversion moderates union s wage demands as they attempt to induce the central bank to inflate at a lower rate an increase in the degree of centralization of wage bargaining a decrease in the number of unions triggers two opposite effects on real wages unemployment and inflation it reduces the substitutability between the labor of different unions and therefore the degree of effective competition between them this reduced competition effect raises real wages unemployment and inflation but the decrease in the number of unions also strengthens the moderating effect of inflationary fears on the real wage demands of each union this strategic effect lowers real wages unemployment and inflation for sufficiently inflation averse unions the interaction between those two effects produces a calmfors driffill type relation between real wages and centralization the paper analyzes the effects of central bank independence on the position and the shape of this relation as well as on inflation and unemployment the paper features two mechanisms one of which is novel through which monetary institutions have real effects the model implies that if there is a single union social welfare is maximized when the central bank attaches a zero weight to inflation but when the number of unions is larger than one this result is no longer true in general empirical evaluation of some of the theoretical implications using data from 19 developed economies is for the most part supportive of those implications

foreign labor costs and domestic employment what are the spillovers abstract this paper studies the international spillover effects of country specific labor cost changes in the presence of labor market frictions a two country model with search frictions predicts that a cut in foreign labor costs leads to an increase in domestic employment driven by a positive terms of trade effect on job creation i find empirical evidence in support of this positive spillover effect the terms of trade channel and the dependence on the degree of labor market rigidity this is done by a panel regression that estimates the effect of exogenous variation in foreign unit labor costs instrumented by changes in foreign statutory social security contribution rates on domestic employment and output

labour market institutions and wage setting evidence for oecd countries the main channel through which labour market institutions are supposed to work in affecting unemployment is through their effects on the key parameters of the wage curve in particular labour market institutions may have both a direct wage push or level effect i e change the level of the real wage for any given level of the unemployment rate and productivity and an indirect slope effect i e change the responsiveness of the real wage to the unemployment rate the question this article addresses is whether there is any evidence that these transmission mechanisms were at work in a group of 20 organization for economic co operation and development oecd countries over the period 1960 to 1999 the analysis is accomplished in two steps pooled mean group pmg estimates of a wage equation including unemployment productivity and a set of wage push institutions are first obtained allowing only a subset of institutional coefficient to be homogeneous while leaving the unemployment and other coefficients

institutions and commitment the thrust of this paper is that to understand the roles institutions play in society a deep analysis of opportunism and its implications is necessary for that purpose a transactions costs cum positive political theory approach is developed with a focus on the role of institutions and their implications for regulatory commitment a major issue is restraining political opportunism countries that have succeeded in developing a healthy private sector are those that have developed institutions that restrain governmental decision making but such restraining is itself a political choice countries with electoral and legislative systems that bring about decentralized government have stronger chances of developing equilibria where government discretion is restrained copyright 1996 by oxford university press