wage bargaining central bank independence and the real effects of money the effects of financial capital mobility on monetary policy autonomy are relatively well understood but the importance of particular monetary regimes in distinct national institutional settings is not this article is a theoretical and empirical exploration of the effects of monetary policy regimes on unemployment in different national wage bargaining settings based on a rational expectations two stage game of the interaction between the wage behavior of labor unions and the monetary policies of governments i argue that monetary policies have real employment effects in all but the most decentralized bargaining systems specifically in intermediately centralized bargaining systems a credible government commitment to a nonaccommodating monetary policy rule will deter militant wage behavior with salutary effects on unemployment in highly centralized systems by contrast restrictive monetary policies will clash with unions pursuit of wage distributive goals and produce inferior employment performance only in highly fragmented bargaining systems is money neutral in the sense that employment performance is unaffected by monetary regimes the model has clear consequences for the optimal design of central banks and collective bargaining arrangements and suggests new ways to study institutional change hereunder the causal effect of increasingly globalized capital markets the argument is supported by pooled time series data for fifteen oecd countries over a twenty one year period

how strong is the case for a populist central banker a note conventional wisdom holds that a conservative central banker reduces equilibrium inflation with no cost in terms of real activity more recently this proposition has been turned around in models with inflation averse wage setters who are stackelberg leaders vis a vis the central bank in this case a populist central banker with no interest in inflation was shown to lead to the first best equilibrium this note demonstrates that the stackelberg assumption is crucial for this result and that the nash solution of the same model does not generally support the case for a populist central banker

unemployment growth and taxation in industrial countries unemployeement and taxes do taxes affect the rate of umemployeement to the layman the upward trend in european unemployment is related to the slowdown of economic growth we argue that the layman s view is correct the increase in european unemployment and the slowdown in economic growth are related because they stem from a common cause an excessively rapid growth in the cost of labour in europe labour costs have gone up for many reasons but one is particularly easy to identify higher taxes on labour if wages are set by strong and decentralized trade unions an increase in labour taxes is shifted onto higher real wages this has two effects first it reduces labour demand and thus creates unemployment secondly as firms substitute capital for labour the marginal product of capital falls over long periods of time this in turn diminishes the incentive to invest and to grow the data strongly support this view according to our estimates the observed rise of 14 percentage points in labour tax rates between 1965 and 1995 in the eu could account for a rise in eu unemployment of roughly 4 percentage points a reduction of the investment share of output of about 3 percentage points and a growth slowdown of about 0 4 percentage points a year francesco daveri and guido tabellini

the dark side of buyer power supplier exploitation and the role of ethical climates media increasingly accuse firms of exploiting suppliers and these allegations often result in lurid headlines that threaten the reputations and therefore business successes of these firms neither has the phenomenon of supplier exploitation been investigated from a rigorous ethical standpoint nor have answers been provided regarding why some firms pursue exploitative approaches by systemically contrasting economic liberalism and just prices as two divergent perspectives on supplier exploitation we introduce a distinction of common business practice and unethical supplier exploitation since supplier exploitation is based on power we elucidate several levels of power as antecedents and investigate the role of ethical climate as a moderator this study extends victor and cullen s 1988 ethical climate matrix according to a supply chain dimension and is summarized in an integrated conceptual model of five propositions for future theory testing results provide a frame of reference for executives and scholars who can now delineate unethical exploitation and understand important antecedents of the phenomenon better

marketed surplus under risk do peasants agree with sandmo using a newly defined notion of aversion to income risk the behavior of the marketed surplus producer under price risk is characterized unlike the familiar case first examined by sandmo output depends on both ordinal preferences for goods and on risk attitudes conditions are found that yield an output level under risk that is smaller than under certainty if these conditions do not hold both risk and risk aversion may have a positive effect on output implications for econometric studies of risk attitudes are considered and illustrated with an example finally we examine the effect of uncertainty on the peasant s long run equilibrium

a survey of agricultural household models recent findings and policy implications semicommercial farms that produce multiple crops make up a large part of the agricultural sector in developing economies these farms or agricultural households combine two fundamental units of microeconomic analysis the household and the firm traditional economic theory has dealt with these units seperately but in developing economies in which peasant farms dominate their interdependence is of crucial importance researchers have developed models of agricultural households that combine producer and consumer behavior in a theoretically consistent fashion recent empirical applications of these models have extended them and expanded the range of policy issues which can be investigated using this general framework this article reports the results of empirical applications of this model in india indonesia japan the republic of korea malaysia nigeria senegal sierra leone taiwan and thailand it provides a comparative analysis of the policy implications of the approach for such matters as the welfare of farm households the size of marketed surplus the demand for nonagricultural goods and services and for hired labor and the availability of budget revenues and foreign exchange

information content of wages and monetary policy we examine whether it is sufficient for central banks to observe and forecast nominal variables only analyzing the interplay of wage setting unions and a central bank we show that although central banks may not gain more information by directly acquiring data about indicators of real shocks in the economy such activities are nevertheless beneficial for central banks and yield lower social losses moreover the extent of research activities by central banks should depend on the process of union formation

monetary uncertainty strategic wage setting and equilibrium employment abstract an important recent strand of literature has shown that if wages are set strategically by inflation averse non atomistic unions then equilibrium employment is sensitive to the monetary regime this note demonstrates that such sensitivity need not reflect a direct aversion to inflation by unions but instead may result from union concerns for employment objectives in circumstances in which the variance and mean value of inflation are positively related

how much should central banks talk a new argument abstract more openness in central bank decision procedures may increase inflation uncertainty for players on financial markets when it leads to less wage discipline and higher average inflation

china s sloping land conversion program does expansion equal success this paper uses a 2003 household survey to examine implementation and impacts of china s sloping land conversion program we find that land targeting has been strongly influenced by program goals but that mistargeting also occurred using a treatment effects approach to evaluate program impact we find evidence of positive impact on cropping husbandry and total income though the results are not robust enough to support government claims of huge gains we also find evidence that lack of participant choice could be dampening program impacts and that allowing households autonomy could lead to improvement in program cost effectiveness and outcomes

bargaining structure and nominal wage flexibility in a model with hetergenous agents wage setting by monopoly unions and monetary policy conducted by a central bank we show that the duration of nominal wage contracts is u shaped in the degree of centralization with intermediate bargaining systems yielding contracts of shorter duration and thus more flexible nominal wages than both decentralized and centralized systems we also find the degree of heterogeneity in the economy the theoretical predictions of the model are tested on oecd data there is empirical support for the main results regarding contract length while there is less support for the predictions regarding the level of centralization

designing payments for environmental services in theory and practice an overview of the issues abstract payments for environmental services pes have attracted increasing interest as a mechanism to translate external non market values of the environment into real financial incentives for local actors to provide environmental services es in this introductory paper we set the stage for the rest of this special issue of ecological economics by reviewing the main issues arising in pes design and implementation and discussing these in the light of environmental economics we start with a discussion of pes definition and scope we proceed to review some of the principal dimensions and design characteristics of pes programs and then analyze how pes compares to alternative policy instruments finally we examine in detail two important aspects of pes programs their effectiveness and their distributional implications pes is not a silver bullet that can be used to address any environmental problem but a tool tailored to address a specific set of problems those in which ecosystems are mismanaged because many of their benefits are externalities from the perspective of ecosystem managers pes is based on the beneficiary pays rather than the polluter pays principle and as such is attractive in settings where es providers are poor marginalized landholders or powerful groups of actors an important distinction within pes is between user financed pes in which the buyers are the users of the es and government financed pes in which the buyers are others typically the government acting on behalf of es users in practice pes programs differ in the type and scale of es demand the payment source the type of activity paid for the performance measure used as well as the payment mode and amount the effectiveness and efficiency of pes depends crucially on program design

central bank inflation contracts and strategic wage setting in a multiunion economy abstract a shared feature of models used to investigate the welfare enhancing potential of a central bank inflation contract is their stochastic nature central to the benefits conferred by such a contract is the presence of supply shocks in constructing a framework where wages are set strategically by a number of nonatomistic inflation averse unions this note identifies circumstances in which an inflation contract improves macroeconomic outcomes even in the absence of supply shocks

nominal wage flexibility wage indexation and monetary union membership in a monetary union implies stronger incentives for nominal wage flexibility in the form of wage indexation and shorter contract length than non membership this counteracts the stabilisation policy cost of giving up monetary independence but more wage flexibility is only an imperfect substitute for an individual monetary policy it is possible that an increase in wage flexibility is welfare decreasing because of the accompanying rise in price variability the interaction between wage setting and central bank behaviour may result in either multiple equilibria or a unique full indexation equilibrium

inflation adjustment and labour market structures evidence from a multi country study the impact of labour market structures on the response of inflation to macroeconomic shocks is analysed empirically results based on a 20 country panel show that if labour market coordination is high the effect on inflation of movements in unemployment import prices tax rates and productivity is dampened both on impact and dynamically in contrast monopoly power in labour supply measured by the percentage unionisation of the workforce appears to amplify the response of inflation to its reduced form determinants these findings are attributed to the behaviour of wages following movements in demand and supply side conditions

estimating labor supply and production decisions of self employed farm producers abstract this paper proposes a model oriented towards integrating farm households production and consumption decisions into a unified theoretical and econometric framework it is argued that in contrast with other forms of economic organization farm households utility and profit maximization decisions are not likely to be independent econometric estimation of a farm household model using canadian data suggests that utility and profit maximizing decisions are not indeed independent and moreover that there are significant gains in explanatory power and efficiency by estimating the consumption and production equations jointly

revisiting the case for a populist central banker it is known that discretionary policy may give rise to an inflationary bias if wages are negotiated in nominal terms in a recent issue of this review guzzo and velasco argued that this bias can be eliminated and welfare maximized by the appointment of a central banker who does not care at all about inflation a populist central banker a conceptual flaw of the latter result is identified here it is shown that when wages are negotiated in nominal terms the result is true only in the special case of a single all encompassing union in the more general case of multiple unions however inflation increases linearly with their number and a populist central bank may turn out to decrease welfare

the impact of repeated interactions on supply chain contracts a laboratory study abstract in this laboratory study we investigate the interactive behaviors that develop over a perceived long term contractual relationship specifically three types of contracts are examined under a two echelon supply chain setting with stochastic demand wholesale price contracts buyback contracts and revenue sharing contracts the supply chain contracting theory has demonstrated that the simple linear price contract is inefficient whereas the latter two contracts can coordinate the channel through risk sharing and they are mathematically equivalent we propose an experimental design that controls for individual decision biases to isolate the behavioral impact of repeated negotiations our experimental results indicate that participants systematically deviate from predictions by the normative model that assumes a one shot interaction between self interested players we find that when future opportunities to punish are available social preferences for fairness and reciprocity are reinforced and reputation building behaviors are motivated to achieve long term economic benefits as a result the performance of the overall supply chain is enhanced moreover we observe that buyback contracts behave differently from revenue sharing contracts by inducing higher order quantities over time

monetary policy cooperation may not be counterproductive this paper qualifies rogoff s famous 1985 result that international monetary policy cooperation is counterproductive in a model similar to his it is shown that if wage setters are non atomistic and inflation averse as policymakers are cooperation leads to higher employment and possibly lower inflation

how will emu affect inflation and unemployment in europe this paper explores how european monetary union will change the wage setting behavior of national labor unions we derive the impact of national inflation aversion and labor militancy on the performance of national labor markets under different monetary arrangements a common central bank raises inflation and unemployment if it acts as conservatively as national central banks however unemployment falls in countries that previously tied their monetary policy to the bundesbank we also examine the composition of emu and the influence of national labor market legislation jel classification e24 f02 f33

monetary institutions monopolistic competition unionized labor markets and economic performance recent literature on the interactions between labor unions and monetary institutions features either a supply or a demand channel of monetary policy but not both this leads to two opposing views about the effects of central bank conservativeness we evaluate the relative merits of those conflicting views by developing a unified framework we find that i the effect of conservativeness on employment depends on unions relative aversion to unemployment versus inflation and ii for plausible values of this relative aversion and more than one union social welfare is maximized under a highly conservative central bank we also evaluate the effects of centralization of wage bargaining and product market competition on unemployment and inflation

corporatism monetary policy and macroeconomic performance a simple game theoretic analysis the effects of corporatism on inflation and output are analyzed in a model of a game between a government and a union this model allows consideration of aspects of corporatism other than centralization of wage bargaining and permits monetary policy to be endogenized corporatist attitudes on the part of the union have beneficial effects on economic performance provided the game is played noncooperatively with simultaneous moves through the nature of their impact depends critically on the government s preferences if the government leads certain forms of corporatism can be inflationary cooperative play reduces inflation but has an ambiguous effect on output copyright 1995 by the editors of the scandinavian journal of economics

tax policies and the financially constrained farm household this article analyzes the implications of income profit and consumption taxes on the economic decisions of financially constrained farm households within a dynamic intertemporal framework the most important results are that replacing a profits tax with a consumption tax would lead to increases in on farm work farm income and farm production in the short run capital accumulation would be enhanced leading to similar effects in the long run if an income tax is replaced with a consumption tax similar expansive effects would occur in the intermediate and long run but in the short run there would be no effect on farm production

monetary conservatism and fiscal coordination in a monetary union abstract in monetary unions time inconsistency provides the rationale for monetary conservativeness and against fiscal coordination however this depends on the assumption of exogenous labor markets once wage setting behavior is explicitly modeled fiscal coordination and less conservative central bankers improve the performance

wages and employment in a segmented labor market this paper analyzes the impact of business cycle fluctuations on a labor market segmented into a unionized primary sector and a competitive secondary sector either permanent or temporary changes in real aggregate demand are shown to widen the intersectoral wage differential in recession and under reasonable specifications of key parameters to cause greater fluctuations of primary sector employment than secondary sector employment this pattern agrees with the stylized facts of the u s economy

china s sloping land conversion program institutional innovation or business as usual abstract china s sloping land conversion program slcp is the largest land retirement reforestation program in the developing world having the goal of converting 14 67 million hectares of cropland to forests by 2010 4 4 million of which is on land with slopes greater than 25 and an additional soft goal of afforesting a roughly equal area of wasteland by 2010 pending successful completion it could represent a 10 20 increase in china s national forest area and a 10 decrease in current cultivated area in contrast to china s other forest sector policies slcp uses a public payment scheme that directly engages millions of rural households as core agents of project implementation and has the stated principals of volunteerism thus insofar as current or future de facto program implementation involves decentralized voluntary grassroots participation slcp represents an important departure from business as usual in how china manages its forest resources this work draws upon current available research of the program and uses a 2003 household and village level survey conducted by the center for chinese agricultural policy cas to examine program design implementation and outcomes to date results indicate that significant problems in design and implementation exist with these including shortfalls in subsidies delivered lack of respect of the principals of volunteerism and insufficient technical support and budgeting for local implementation costs more fundamentally some program goals appear to be based on common misperceptions regarding the linkages between forests and watershed services overall slcp contains both innovative elements volunteerism and the direct engagement of farmers as well as components that hark back to policies and mindsets of decades past the program s top down simplified contract structure lack of sufficient consultation with local communities and rural households and campaign style mobilization the paper concludes by providing four main suggestions to improve the program 1 increase local community input in design and implementation and ensure that households have full autonomy in participation choice 2 improve technical support and budgeting for local administrative costs and capacity building 3 clarify the environmental services targeted and verify the measures needed to acquire these services and 4 integrate slcp into an overall package of complementary policies aimed at the rural sector

reactions to perceived inequity in u s and dutch interorganizational relationships in an empirical examination of inequity in interorganizational relationships we found similarities and differences in dutch and u s automobile dealers reactions to inequity in their relationships with their automobile suppliers as predicted by equity theory both positive and negative inequity have detrimental effects on the reactions of dutch firms in contrast u s firms do not react negatively to positive inequity only negative inequity has deleterious effects

the welfare state and competitiveness in all industrial countries fiscal policy is increasingly about redistribution in this paper the authors study redistribution across different types of agents in a world characterized by the presence of labor unions and distortionary taxation they show that an increase in transfers financed by distortionary taxation has nonlinear effects on unit labor costs relative to the other countries depending on the degree of centralization of the wage setting process in the labor market the authors find considerable empirical support for the model in a sample of fourteen oecd countries copyright 1997 by american economic association

on central bank independence and the stability of policy targets it is argued that impediments to the establishment of an independent central bank arise in the presence of unstable policy targets changing policy targets may occur with an officemotivated policymaker this differs from politico economic models where targets change depending on the partisanship of the politicians in office in the model the principal faces a tradeoff between the credibility benefits of an independent central bank and the flexibility to pursue shifts in his policy targets allowed by a regime of policy discretion an empirical section addresses the issue of the correlation between central bank independence and the stability of policy targets

is fair treatment enough augmenting the fairness based perspective on stakeholder behaviour fairness and justice are core issues in stakeholder theory although such considerations receive more attention in the normative branch of the stakeholder literature they have critical implications for instrumental stakeholder theory as well in research in the instrumental vein although the position has seldom been articulated in significant detail a stakeholder s inclination to take action against the firm or conversely to cooperate with it is often taken to be a function of its perceptions concerning the fairness or unfairness or equity or inequity of the treatment it receives in its relationship with the firm thus from various works in this domain can be distilled what might be termed a fairness based perspective on stakeholder behaviour this perspective as it currently stands assumes a high degree of homogeneity in stakeholders responses to fair unfair or munificent treatment by the firm this supposition is itself typically based on a presumption that stakeholders consistently and uniformly adhere to norms of equity and reciprocity in their relationships with firms however research developments in equity theory and social exchange theory suggest that such assumptions are likely untenable accordingly in this work after outlining the fairness based perspective on stakeholder behaviour i undertake to augment it by presenting propositions concerning the possible influences of stakeholders equity preferences and exchange ideologies on their propensities to sanction or support the firm incorporating these stakeholder traits into the fairness based perspective should enhance the predictive validity of its propositions concerning stakeholder behaviour in response to fairness or unfairness in the firm stakeholder relationship

efficient bargains and the mcdonald solow conjecture this article explores the mcdonald and solow 1981 conjecture that the outcome from a bargain over wages and employment can be approximately achieved by a bargain over wages and the labor capital ratio the crew size where the latter can be argued to be more representative of the real world i derive a crew size contract curve and show that this conjecture is not generally true a test to determine which model is generating real world data is suggested the wage rigidity results derived by mcdonald and solow for their contract curve do not apply to this crew size contract curve

the macroeconomics of social pacts in this paper we analyze macroeconomic interactions between trade unions the central bank and the fiscal policymaker we explicitly model unions concern for public expenditure paving the way for an analysis of the potential gains from cooperation between the fiscal policymaker and the unions i e the so called corporatist or social pacts that have characterized economic policies in a number of european countries in the last few decades we also highlight the profoundly different incentives generated by institutional arrangements such as the maastricht criteria and the stability and growth pact the former has unambiguously induced more efficient outcomes the latter is likely to backfire

conservation payments liquidity constraints and off farm labor impact of the grain for green program on rural households in china this study evaluates the labor response of rural households participating in the grain for green program in china the largest payments for ecosystem services program in the developing world using a panel data set that we designed and implemented we find that the participating households are increasingly shifting their labor endowment from on farm work to the off farm labor market however the effects vary depending on the initial level of human and physical capital the results support the view that one reason why the participants are more likely to find off farm employment is because the program is relaxing households liquidity constraints

fiscal policy labor market structure and macroeconomic performance recent work on monetary policy design has investigated the interactions between labor market institutions and monetary policies and their implications for macroeconomic performance this paper argues that this link is not independent of the fiscal policymaking structure

peasant household behaviour with missing markets some paradoxes explained a model of peasant household behavior under varying degrees of household specific food and labor market failures is constructed to show that these structural features can explain several well known patterns of peasant response which have often been attributed to peculiar motives presumed specific to peasants the model explains sluggish response to cash crops prices and high instability in perceived food and labor scarcities the key role of manufactured consumer goods prices in stimulating peasants effort in cash crops production the effectiveness of taxation as opposed to incentives in stimulating cash crops production and the key role of technological change in food production to enhance cash crop production results are obtained analytically in the case of one market failure and by numerical simulation with more than one

trade union density and inflation performance evidence from oecd panel data this paper examines the impact of union membership rates on inflation in oecd countries a positive effect of union density is estimated even after controlling for fixed effects and time dummies additional institutional characteristics for example union coordination employment protection laws and central bank independence do not affect inflation directly in a panel setting but do influence the size of the unionization coefficient via interaction terms the results are robust to controlling for potential common causes such as oil price shocks and the political stance of the government and to using gmm iv techniques to handle possible endogeneity biases

bargaining structure and economic performance in the open economy abstract it seems nowadays accepted that both centralized wage bargaining and negotiation at the firm level perform better than sectoral wage bargaining this is because sectoral unions have enough market power to raise wages but do not internalize all the effects of their actions however the ranking may be different in an open economy facing a less than infinitely elastic foreign demand because raising wages improves the country s terms of trade as in the optimal tariff argument as a result welfare is higher in the centralized setting while sectoral bargaining is better than full decentralization when imported goods represent a large share of total consumption

the influence of the structure of interdependence on the response to inequity in buyer supplier relationships abstractthis research investigates the conditions under which inequity in a buyer supplier relationship influences a supplier s resource sharing with its buyer more specifically the authors examine the effects of both positive inequity and negative inequity under varying levels of interdependence magnitude and relative dependence they further examine the effect of inequity on perceived relationship performance the study includes a longitudinal survey design with perceived relationship performance reported by a second informant the study conducted within the context of japanese suppliers reporting on their relationship with u s buyers takes a nuanced view of both inequity and relative dependence by employing spline variables to disentangle potentially different effects of positive and negative inequity and relative dependence of the supplier and buyer respectively the results reveal that firms reactions to positive and negative inequity vary depending on the nature of the interdependence struct

debt inflation and central bank independence abstract increasing the independence of a central bank from political influence although ex ante socially beneficial and initially successful in reducing inflation would ultimately fail to lower inflation permanently the smaller anticipated policy distortions implemented by a more independent central bank would induce the fiscal authority to decrease current distortions by increasing the deficit over time inflation would increase to accommodate a higher public debt by contrast imposing a strict inflation target would lower inflation permanently and insulate the primary deficit from political distortions

relative prices in monetary union and floating we analyse a small open economy with a tradable and a sheltered sector if the unions that operate in each sector coordinate their wage demands sectorwise the choice of monetary regime floating cum inflation target vs emu may affect the relative wages and prices of the economy we show that emu results in lower prices for tradable goods and lower real wages in the traded sector while opposite results hold for sheltered sector prices and wages thus if large unions behave strategically the choice of monetary regime has far reaching structural implications

has monetary policy become more efficient a cross country analysis over the past twenty years macroeconomic performance has improved in industrialized and developing countries alike in a broad cross section of countries inflation volatility has fallen markedly while output variability has either fallen or risen only slightly this increased stability can be attributed to either 1 more efficient policymaking by the monetary authority 2 a reduction in the variability of the aggregate supply shocks or 3 changes in the structure of the economy in this paper we develop a method for measuring changes in performance and allocate the source of performance changes to these two factors our technique involves estimating movements toward an inflation and output variability efficiency frontier and shifts in the frontier itself we study the change from the 1980s to the 1990s in the macroeconomic performance of 24 countries and find that for most of the analyzed countries more efficient policy has been the driving force behind improved macroeconomic performance

wage setting measures a survey and assessment wage setting has been one of the most heavily studied institutions in the field of comparative political economy over the past two decades and quantitative measures of wage setting arrangements have played a major role in this research yet the proliferation of such measures in recent years presents researchers with a sizable array from which to choose in addition some scholars are rather skeptical about the validity and or reliability of these measures this article offers a survey and assessment of fifteen wage setting measures it attempts to answer questions about 1 how these indicators differ from one another in conceptualization and measurement strategy 2 which are the most valid and reliable 3 the strengths and weaknesses of measures of wage centralization versus those of wage coordination 4 particular countries or time periods for which there are noteworthy discrepancies in scoring 5 how sensitive empirical findings are to the choice of wage setting measure

semiparametric censored regression models aregression model is censored when the recorded data on the dependent variable cuts off outside a certain range with multiple observations at the endpoints of that range when the data are censored variation in the observed dependent variable will understate the effect of the regressors on the true dependent variable as a result standard ordinary least squares regression using censored data will typically result in coefficient estimates that are biased toward zero traditional statistical analysis uses maximum likelihood or related procedures to deal with the problem of censored data however the validity of such methods requires correct specification of the error distribution which can be problematic in practice in the past two decades a number of semiparametric alternatives for dealing with censored data have been proposed in a semiparametric approach part of the functional form of the model usually the regression function is parametrically specified by the researcher based upon plausible assumptions while the rest of the model is not parameterized 1 while the theoretical literature has produced several semiparametric estimators for the censored data model published applications of these estimators to empirical problems in economics have lagged far behind this paper reviews the intuition and computation of a handful of semiparametric estimators proposed for the censored regression model the various estimators are used to examine changes in black white earnings inequality during the

fiscal activism under inflation targeting and non atomistic wage setting this paper presents a game between a fiscal authority an independent central bank and non atomistic wage setters the effects of fiscal activism and inflation targeting on labour market outcomes are analysed the results suggest that inflation targeting provides incentive for wage restraint moreover real wages are increasing in the degree of fiscal activism as wage setters exploit the response of a fiscal authority seeking to promote employment numerical results suggest that the benefits of targeting inflation are larger when the government pursues an activist policy and therefore that there is some substitutability between fiscal and monetary rules

the sloping land conversion program in china effect on the livelihood diversification of rural households summary through addressing the motivations behind rural households livelihood diversification this paper examines the effect of the sloping land conversion program slcp on livelihood diversification using a longitudinal household survey data set spanning the overall implementation of the slcp our results show that the slcp works as a valid external policy intervention to increase rural livelihood diversification in addition the findings demonstrate that the implementation of the slcp has had heterogeneous effects on livelihood diversification across different rural income groups the lower income group was more affected by the program in terms of income diversification

inflation and central bank independence a meta regression analysis using 59 studies we perform a meta regression analysis of studies examining the relationship between inflation and central bank independence cbi the studies considered are very different with respect to the cbi indicator used the sample of countries and time periods covered model specification estimators used and publication outlet we conclude that there is a significant publication bias however we also find a significant genuine effect of cbi on inflation differences between studies are not caused by differences in cbi indicators used

can payments for environmental services help reduce poverty an exploration of the issues and the evidence to date from latin america summary this paper examines the main ways in which payments for environmental services pes might affect poverty pes may reduce poverty mainly by making payments to poor natural resource managers in upper watersheds the extent of the impact depends on how many pes participants are in fact poor on the poors ability to participate and on the amounts paid although pes programs are not designed for poverty reduction there can be important synergies when program design is well thought out and local conditions are favorable possible adverse effects can occur where property rights are insecure or if pes programs encourage less labor intensive practices 2004 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

the political economy of inflation labour market distortions and central bank independence using the citizen candidate model we study the government s choice of institutions for the labour market and the central bank and derive the implications for inflation and employment we derive conditions for the existence of equilibria in which the labour market is distorted and the central bank is dependent or independent under a range of conditions affecting central bank dependence the post election cycle in inflation and employment and inflation bias our results imply that average inflation and inflation variability are lower under an independent central bank whereas employment variability can be lower or higher consistent with evidence for oecd countries many democratic societies delegate key tasks to non elected and independent institutions a prominent example being independent central banks the belief in the advantage of central bank independence is nursed by the cross country evi

centralised wage setting inflation contracts and the optimal choice of central banker the paper examines the appropriate design of central banking institutions in an economy in which the nominal wage is set by an inflation averse monopoly union as a positive mark up over its market clearing value the analysis considers both the optimal choice of central banker and the potential role for a linear inflation contract the optimal set of arrangements is a central banker who attaches less significance to inflation than does society combined with an inflation contract where the value of the contract parameter is related to the union s degree of inflationaversion following the important contribution of rogoff 1985 the appointment of a conservative central banker has been widely accepted as a potential albeit partial solution to the time inconsistency problem associated with discretionary policy making in placing a greater weight on inflation than does the government and society as a whole in the setting of monetary policy the central bank s temptation to create inflation surprises is reduced this then leads to a lower inflation rate in equilibrium than would otherwise prevail whilst in rogoff s stochastic framework this reduction in the inflationary bias has to be weighed against an increase in output variability the appropriate choice of central banker ensures a net improvement in welfare an important feature of rogoff s model is the assumption of an atomistic labour market in which nominal wages embodied in single period contracts reflect interaction between agents who hold no market power such a representation of the labour market also characterises most subsequent extensions of rogoff s analysis e g lohmann 1992 and waller 1992 however a number of recent papers in considering the time inconsistency issue have employed the assumption of unionised wage setting assuming either an allencompassing monopoly union or alternatively a number of individual unions each of which has a non negligible impact on macroeconomic variables examples include agell and ysander 1993 bleaney 1996 cubitt 1992 1995 horn and persson 1988 hutchison and walsh 1998 and skott 1997 these contributions have examined the implications of the assumed labour market imperfection from a variety of perspectives but only those of bleaney and skott directly consider its consequences for the appropriate specification of central bank objectives in what follows we explore the significance of unionised wage setting for

household composition labor markets and labor demand testing for separation in agricultural household models this paper tests the separation of farm labor supply and labor demand decisions using the observation that household composition is an important determinant of farm labor use with nonseparation after assessing the conditions under which the test has power against several alternatives an empirical model is developed to test the proposition that farm employment is independent of family composition the model is estimated on a data set from rural java the null hypothesis that farm labor allocation decisions are independent of household structure is not rejected the results are robust to different specifications of the labor demand function copyright 1992 by the econometric society

inflation government transfers and optimal central bank independence abstract the problem of monetary policy delegation is formulated as a two stage non cooperative game between the government and the central bank the solution to this policy game determines the optimal combination of central bank conservatism and independence the results show that the optimal institutional design always requires some degree of central bank independence and that there is substitutability between central bank independence and conservatism the results also show that partial central bank independence can be optimal and that there are circumstances under which it is optimal for the government to appoint a liberal central banker

partially independent central banks politically responsive governments and inflation theories of central bank independence have more exact implications regarding inflation in different political economic environments than generally understood or empirically examined they imply that inflation in any given country time will be a weighted average of what it would be if the central bank completely controlled monetary policy and what it would be if the government completely controlled it with the degree of central bank independence weighting the former an equation embodying this theoretical expectation is estimated by constrained least squares from a time series cross section of inflation rates in developed democracies since the bretton woods era the results confirm that the antiinflationary benefit of central bank independence is not constant but rather depends on every variable in the broader politicaleconomic environment to which wholly autonomous central banks and governments would respond differently conversely the inflationary impacts of all such political economic variables depend on the degree of central bank independence

non atomistic wage setters and monetary policy in a new keynesian framework this paper extends an otherwise standard new keynesian nk model to allow for the presence of large wage setters building on monetary models from an earlier generation i contribute to the nk literature by adding some new insight it is shown that once the presence of large wage setters is taken into account the degree of wage setting centralization and the aggressiveness of the central bank in stabilizing inflation jointly affect steady state employment because of this interaction the benefits associated with inflation stabilization increase in the centralization of the wage bargaining process

sunk capital unions and the hold up problem theory and evidence from cross country sectoral data abstract in this paper we study the hold up problem by considering the effect of union bargaining power on the level of investment per worker across sectors characterised by different levels of sunk capital investment we develop a search and matching model with heterogeneous sectors and ex post collective wage bargaining and test the predictions of the model using a difference in difference approach on manufacturing sector data in a set of oecd countries during the period 1980 2000 we find that union power reduces investment per worker particularly in sunk capital intensive industries we refine our empirical analysis showing that the underlying hold up problem is exacerbated when strikes are not regulated after a collective contract is signed and there is no arbitration while the presence of social pacts may sustain cooperative equilibria that alleviate the hold up problem our results are robust to a series of controls and possible endogeneity of union power

modeling farm households price responses in the presence of transaction costs and heterogeneity in labor markets we develop a farm household model to analyze price responses of farm households this model incorporates various types of transaction costs as well as labor heterogeneity nonproportional variable transaction costs or labor heterogeneity imply that production and consumption decisions become nonseparable even when the household buys or sells labor an empirical model is estimated using data from midwest poland the results show that nonproportional variable transaction costs and labor heterogeneity significantly influence household behavior not all price elasticities however change significantly if these are neglected

the case for a populist central banker abstract we present a general equilibrium optimizing model in which we study the joint effects of centralization of wage setting and central bank conservatism on economic performance several striking conclusions emerge in relatively centralized labor markets employment and output are decreasing and inflation is intially increasing and then decreasing in the degree of central bank conservatism a radical populist central banker who cares not at all about inflation alternatively who is not conservative maximizes social welfare economic performance is not u shaped in the degree of centralization of the labor market in contrast to conventional wisdom

the nonneutrality of monetary policy with large price or wage setters monetary rules matter for the equilibrium rate of employment when the number of price wage setters is small even when assuming rational expectations complete information central bank precommitment and absence of nominal rigidities if the central bank is nonaccommodating sufficiently large unions bargaining independently have an incentive to moderate sectoral money wages and thereby expected real wages the result is an increase in the real money supply and hence higher demand and employment this does not hold with accommodating monetary policy since unions wage decisions cannot then affect the real money supply a similar argument holds for large monopolistically competitive price setters

strategic monetary policy with non atomistic wage setters monetary policy analyses usually assume an atomistic private sector thereby ignoring potential interactions between policy and wage setting decisions yet non atomistic wage setters are a key feature of several industrialized economies we study the economic consequence of non atomistic agents and show that this qualifies previous results on the effects and desirability of a conservative central banker in particular the central bank aversion to inflation may have a permanent effect on structural employment while no such effect emerges with atomistic agents

the immediate challenges for the european central bank immediate challenges for the ecb issues in formulating a single monetary policy this paper discusses a number of issues that the newly constituted board of the ecb will face early on conducting a european monetary policy will be very different from living under the protective umbrella of the bundesbank we discuss voting on the ecb board and argue that the ability to communicate with the public will be critical for the success of the new institution we also ask how a single monetary policy a common change in the interest rate controlled by the ecb is transmitted to the economy of each member country we show that the monetary process differs significantly inside emu initially at least the cost of a disinflation episode could fall disproportionately on a few member countries those with both a financial structure that spreads a monetary contraction widely and a wage price structure that is relatively inflexible this process moreover is sure to evolve in part as a result of financial industry restructuring already under way but in part accentuated by the common money furthermore as the lucas principle suggests the wage price process itself will adapt to the changing focus of european monetary policy rudi dornbusch carlo favero and francesco giavazzi

the effects of china s sloping land conversion program on agricultural households in the late 1990s china aimed to mitigate environmental degradation from agricultural production activities by introducing the world s largest payments for environmental services pes program the sloping land conversion program slcp in order to analyze its effects on agricultural households we develop a microeconomic agricultural household model ahm which can model the production consumption and non farm labor supply decisions of agricultural households in rural china in a theoretically consistent fashion based on this theoretical model we derive an empirical specification that we use to econometrically estimate the effects of the slcp and other exogenous factors using a large longitudinal farm household survey data set we estimate the empirical model with the hausman taylor estimation method the empirical results are generally consistent with the results of our theoretical comparative static analysis e g that the slcp significantly decreases agricultural production while the slcp increases non farm labor supply and total consumption in the yellow river basin these effects could not be observed in the yangtze river basin the recent reduction of the slcp compensation payment rates has had some notable but generally small effects

pattern bargaining and wage leadership in a small open economy pattern bargaining where the tradables manufacturing sector acts as wage leader is a common form of wage bargaining in europe our results question the conventional wisdom that such a bargaining set up produces wage restraint we find that all forms of pattern bargaining give the same macroeconomic outcomes as uncoordinated bargaining under inflation targeting and a flexible exchange rate under monetary union a fixed exchange rate wage leadership for the non tradables sector is conducive to wage restraint and high employment whereas wage leadership for the tradables sector is not loss aversion and comparison thinking in wage setting where unions evaluate the utility of the wages of their members relative to a wage norm may lead the follower to set the same wage as the leader such equilibria can arise when the leader sector is the smaller sector and promote high employment

exchange rate proclamations and inflation fighting credibility if governments choose economic policies that often run counter to their public commitments are those commitments meaningless we argue that govern ment proclamations can be critical in signaling economic policy intentions we focus on the realm of exchange rate policy in which countries frequently implement an exchange rate regime that differs from the officially declared regime we argue that the official exchange rate regime is one of the most important signals of a government s economic policy preferences when a government makes a de jure public commit ment to a fixed exchange rate it sends a signal to domestic and international markets of its strict monetary policy priorities in contrast a government that proclaims a floating exchange rate signals a desire to retain discretion over monetary policy even if it has implemented a de facto fixed rate we use data on 110 developed and devel oping countries from 1974 to 2004 to test two hypotheses first that governments that adopt de facto fixed exchange rates will experience less inflation when they back up their actions with official declarations and second that governments that abide by their commitments as demonstrated by a history of following through on their public declarations of a fixed exchange rate regime will establish greater inflation fighting credibility within developing countries democratic institutions enhance this credibility results from fixed effects econometric models provide strong support for our hypotheses

median voter preferences central bank independence and conservatism this paper studies how the independence and theconservatism of a central bank relate to the structureand stability of the median voter preferences this isdone by means of a model of endogenous delegationwhere an opportunistic policy maker chooses themonetary regime independence and conservatism tomaximise the welfare of the median voter the resultsshow that a high degree of inflation aversion ofmonetary policy is not necessarily associated with ahigh degree of central bank independence a high andstable degree of inflation aversion of society i e of the median voter may lead to establish a dependentcentral bank which is highly inflation averse this suggests that the negativecorrelation between inflation and central bankindependence indices detected by several empiricalstudies may reflect a link between inflation and somedeep features of social preferences

motivators of mobilization although the possibility that a firm s stakeholders may take damaging measures against it in response to its activities has been an underlying assumption of stakeholder theory from inception the conditions that predispose stakeholders to act against firms remain largely unexplored in the literature based on work in equity theory expectancy theory and resource dependence theory we present and test hypotheses concerning stakeholders propensities to impose sanctions upon or to support firms using a vignette based experiment we found strong confirmation of the criticality of fairness in the firm stakeholder relationship stakeholder equity perceptions were unequivocally associated with the proclivity to sanction the firm or to engage in prosocial behaviours of benefit to it stakeholder expectancy perceptions and resource dependence were related to only certain forms of stakeholder action indicating that researchers should take care to differentiate between types of stakeholder response when investigating questions surrounding stakeholder mobilization our results also suggest specific avenues for stakeholder dialogue that could help firms mitigate the likelihood of stakeholders taking damaging action against them

unemployment benefits as a substitute for a conservative central banker in the many years since their introduction positive theories of inflation have rarely been tested this paper documents a negative relationship between inflation and the welfare state proxied by the parameters of the unemployment benefit program that is to be expected in such theories because unemployment benefits make the monetary authority less concerned about the plight of the unemployed building a welfare state has a similar effect to appointing a conservative central banker the relationship holds in a panel of 20 oecd countries over the period 1961 1992 a region where romer finds no evidence of commitment problems it holds controlling for country and time fixed effects country specific time trends other covariates and using a decadal panel interpreted as causal the estimated effect is economically large a 1 standard deviation decrease in benefit duration is predicted to add 1 4 percentage points onto inflation or 31 of the standard deviation in inflation

monetary regimes and the co ordination of wage setting abstract a recent literature argues that a strict monetary regime may reduce equilibrium unemployment by disciplining wage setters as wage setters abstain from raising wages to avoid a monetary contraction however in this literature the wage setters are assumed not to co ordinate their wage setting the present paper argues that precisely because a strict monetary regime may discipline the unco ordinated wage setting thus lowering unemployment in the unco ordinated outcome it also reduces wage setters incentives to co ordinate it is shown that an accommodating monetary regime may reduce equilibrium unemployment via the strengthening of the wage setters incentives to co ordinate

what differences in the cultural backgrounds of partners are detrimental for international joint ventures an international joint venture implies that a firm has to cooperate with a partner with a different cultural background in this study hypotheses about which differences in national culture are most disruptive for international joint ventures were developed and tested using hofstede s five dimensions the study focused on how these dimensions affect the survival of international joint ventures as well as their incidence relative to wholly owned subsidiaries the hypotheses were tested on longitudinal data about 828 foreign entries of twenty five dutch multinational in seventy two countries between 1966 and 1994 the database which spans almost three decades was also used to provide new evidence on a key assumption of hofstede s work that cultural values are stable over time

might a conservative central banker reduce employment variability abstract this note identifies circumstances under which increased inflation aversion by the central bank can contrary to the conventional wisdom reduce employment variability this result reflects three key features of the model developed a monopolistically competitive goods market strategic wage setting by non atomistic unions partial anticipation of shocks by unions

wage setting under different monetary regimes in an economy with large wage setters like industry unions the monetary regime affects the trade off between consumer real wages and employment and profits faced by the wage setters this paper shows that an exchange rate target including participation in a monetary union is likely to involve lower wages in the traded sector and higher wages in the non traded sector than does a price target an exchange rate target also involves higher prices on non traded goods relative to on traded goods overall welfare is likely to be higher under a price target

the interaction of monetary policy and wages this paper focuses on the interaction of monetary policy and wage formation in economies with strong labor unions government and unions are viewed as endogenous utility maximizers and the macroeconomic consequences of their strategic interaction are explored with the aid of some elements of simple game theory specifically it is shown a how labor unions adjust wages to prices so as to maximize their utility following changes in monetary policy b how the effectiveness of monetary policy is circumscribed without necessarily being nullified by the utility maximizing reactions of unions and c how the interplay of government and unions can create a persistent tendency towards inflation and unemployment simultaneously

wage rigidity collective bargaining and the minimum wage evidence from french agreement data using several unique data sets on wage agreements at both industry and firm levels in france we document stylized facts on wage stickiness and the impact of wage setting institutions on wage rigidity first the average duration of wages is a little less than one year and around 10 percent of wages are modified each month by a wage agreement data patterns are consistent with predictions of a mixture of calvo and taylor models the frequency of wage change agreements is rather staggered over the year but the frequency of effective wage changes is seasonal the national minimum wage has a significant impact on the probability of a wage agreement and on the seasonality of wage changes negotiated wage increases are correlated with inflation the national minimum wage increases and the firm profitability

is monetary union necessarily counterproductive abstract this paper analyses the case of a monetary union between identical countries characterised by oligopolistic competition in their labour market it suggests that the switch to a common currency may improve their macroeconomic performances depending on labour market features

the rise and fall of centralized wage bargaining during the three decades spanning the early 1950s to the early 1980s the wage setting process in most northern european countries was dominated by centralized bargaining i e peak level labor and employer associations set wages nationwide in the early 1980s centralized wage bargaining began to collapse in this paper we assess a novel explanation for both the initial establishment of a centralized wage setting process and its subsequent collapse according to our theory centralized wage bargaining was set up as a response to the spillovers created by the unemployment benefit program its collapse was the result of the increase in the productivity gap across workers brought about by equipment specific technological progress and equipment skill complementarity

land retirement and nonfarm labor market participation an analysis of china s sloping land conversion program summary china s sloping land conversion program pays more than 32 million households to plant trees on highly erodible cropland and has effected major land use changes farmers retire land indefinitely but receive time limited subsidies after which they in principle enter nonfarm employment we analyze annual data we collected on over 3 000 individuals and plots from 1998 2006 which contain variation in enrollment timing and alternative measures of enrollment and conclude enrollment has a small but significant and robust positive effect on nonfarm employment it arises not from alleviating constraints as recent papers have suggested but rather from simple farm to nonfarm labor substitution

are there asymmetries in the response of bank interest rates to monetary shocks this article examines the velocity and asymmetry of the response of bank interest rates to monetary policy shocks using an asymmetric vector error correction model it analyses the pass through of changes in money market rates to retail bank interest rates in italy in the period 1985 2002 the main results of the article are 1 the speed of adjustment of bank interest rates to monetary policy changes increased significantly after the introduction of the 1993 consolidated law on banking 2 interest rate adjustment in response to positive and negative shocks is asymmetric in the short run but not in the long run 3 banks adjust their loan deposit rate faster during periods of monetary tightening easing 4 this asymmetry almost vanished since the 1990s

central bank independence centralization of wage bargaining inflation and unemployment theory and some evidence abstract this paper proposes a conceptual framework to investigate the effects of central bank independence of the degree of centralization of wage bargaining and of the interaction between those institutional variables on real wages unemployment and inflation in a framework in which unions are averse to inflation this aversion moderates union s wage demands as they attempt to induce the central bank to inflate at a lower rate an increase in the degree of centralization of wage bargaining a decrease in the number of unions triggers two opposite effects on real wages unemployment and inflation it reduces the substitutability between the labor of different unions and therefore the degree of effective competition between them this reduced competition effect raises real wages unemployment and inflation but the decrease in the number of unions also strengthens the moderating effect of inflationary fears on the real wage demands of each union this strategic effect lowers real wages unemployment and inflation for sufficiently inflation averse unions the interaction between those two effects produces a calmfors driffill type relation between real wages and centralization the paper analyzes the effects of central bank independence on the position and the shape of this relation as well as on inflation and unemployment the paper features two mechanisms one of which is novel through which monetary institutions have real effects the model implies that if there is a single union social welfare is maximized when the central bank attaches a zero weight to inflation but when the number of unions is larger than one this result is no longer true in general empirical evaluation of some of the theoretical implications using data from 19 developed economies is for the most part supportive of those implications