solving asset pricing models when the price dividend function is analytic we present a new method for solving asset pricing models which yields an analytic price dividend function of one state variable to illustrate our method we give a detailed analysis of abel s asset pricing model a function is analytic in an open interval if it can be represented as a convergent power series near every point of that interval in addition to allowing us to solve for the exact equilibrium price dividend function the analyticity property also lets us assess the accuracy of any numerical solution procedure used in the asset pricing literature

bubbles crashes and endogenous expectations in experimental spot asset markets1 spot asset trading is studied in an environment in which all investors receive the same dividend from a known probability distribution at the end of each of t 15 or 30 trading periods fourteen of twenty two experiments exhibit price bubbles followed by crashes relative to intrinsic dividend value when traders are experienced this reduces but does not eliminate the probability of a bubble the regression of changes in mean price on lagged excess bids number of bids minus the number of offers in the previous period p pt a f b 1 o l supports the hypothesis that a e d the one period expected value of the dividend and that f 0 where excess bids is a surrogate measure of excess demand arising from homegrown capital gains losses expectations thus when bt 1 o goes to zero we have convergence to rational expectations in the sense of fama 1970 that arbitrage becomes unprofitable the observed bubble phenomenon can also be interpreted as a form of temporary myopia tirole 1982 from which agents learn that capital gains expectations are only temporarily sustainable ultimately inducing common expectations or priors tirole 1982 four of twenty six experiments all using experienced subjects yield outcomes that appear to the chart s eye to converge early to rational expectations although even in these cases we get 0 and small price fluctuations of a few cents that invite scalping

idiosyncratic risk and the equity premium evidence from the consumer expenditure survey abstract this paper investigates whether uninsured idiosyncratic risk accounts for the equity premium following mankiw j financial econ 17 1986 211 the paper develops an equilibrium factor model in which risk premia depend on the covariance between an asset s return and certain moments of the cross sectional distribution for consumption growth cross sectional consumption factors are constructed using data from the consumer expenditure survey but they do not appear to be promising candidates for explaining the equity premium the cross sectional factors are weakly correlated with stock returns and generate equity premia of 2 percent or less for preference specifications with low degrees of risk aversion

testing heterogeneous agent models an alternative aggregation approach abstract starting from the cross sectional aggregation of marginal utilities rather than intertemporal marginal rates of substitution this paper develops a new heterogeneous agent pricing kernel a closed form version of the new kernel depends on changes in the cross sectional variance of log consumption rather than the variance of changes in log consumption as in constantinides and duffie 1996 asset pricing with heterogeneous consumers journal of political economy 104 219 237 we implement the new kernel on household consumption data from the consumer expenditure survey cex at monthly and quarterly horizons the new kernel reconciles the premium on u s equities with the consumption of asset holders for reasonable values of relative risk aversion the new kernel also fares better than kernels based on the aggregation of intertemporal marginal rates of substitution in explaining the cross sectional variation of risk premia on stocks and bonds portfolios mimicking changes in the cross sectional variance of log consumption for asset holders command significant negative sharpe ratios

rational expectations and the aggregation of diverse information in laboratory security markets the idea that markets might aggregate and disseminate information and also resolve conflicts is central to the literature on decentralization hurwicz 1972 and rational expectations lucas 1972 we report on three series of experiments all of which were predicted to have performed identically by the theory of rational expectations in two of the three series one in which participants trade a complete set of arrow debreu securities and a second in which all participants have identical preferences double auction trading leads to efficient aggregation of diverse information and rational expectations equilibrium failure of the third series to exhibit such convergence demonstrates the importance of market institutions and trading instruments in achievement of equilibrium

judgemental overconfidence self monitoring and trading performance in an experimental financial market we measure the degree of overconfidence in judgment in the form of miscalibration i e the tendency to overestimate the precision of one s information and self monitoring a form of attentiveness to social cues of 245 participants and also observe their behaviour in an experimental financial market under asymmetric information miscalibrated traders underestimating the conditional uncertainty about the asset value are expected to be especially vulnerable to the winner s curse high self monitors are expected to behave strategically and achieve superior results our empirical results show that miscalibration reduces and self monitoring enhances trading performance the effect of the psychological variables is strong for men but non existent for women

the effect of myopia and loss aversion on risk taking an experimental test myopic loss aversion is the combination of a greater sensitivity to losses than to gains and a tendency to evaluate outcomes frequently two implications of myopic loss aversion are tested experimentally 1 investors who display myopic loss aversion will be more willing to accept risks if they evaluate their investments less often 2 if all payoffs are increased enough to eliminate losses investors will accept more risk in a task in which investors learn from experience both predictions are supported the investors who got the most frequent feedback and thus the most information took the least risk and earned the least money language en

relative wage movements and the distribution of consumption we analyze how relative wage movements among birth cohorts and education groups affected the distribution of household consumption and economic welfare our empirical work draws on the best available cross sectional data sets to construct synthetic panel data on u s consumption labor supply and wages during the 1980s we find that low frequency movements in the cohort education structure of pretax hourly wages among men drove large changes in the distribution of household consumption the results constitute a spectacular failure of between group consumption insurance a failure not explained by existing theories of informationally constrained optimal consumption behavior a welfare analysis indicates that the cost of between group consumption variability is larger than the cost of aggregate consumption variability by two orders of magnitude

an experiment on risk taking and evaluation periods does the period over which individuals evaluate outcomes influence their investment in risky assets results from this study show that the more frequently returns are evaluated the more risk averse investors will be the results are in line with the behavioral hypothesis of myopic loss aversion which assumes that people are myopic in evaluating outcomes over time and are more sensitive to losses than to gains the results have relevance for the equity premium puzzle and also for the marketing strategies of fund managers

is consumption growth consistent with intertemporal optimization evidence from the consumer expenditure survey in this paper we show that some of the predictions of models of consumer intertemporal optimization are in line with the patterns of nondurable expenditure observed in u s household level data we propose a flexible specification of preferences that allows multiple commodities and yields empirically tractable equations we estimate preference parameters using the only u s micro data set with complete consumption information we show that previous rejections can be explained by the simplifying assumptions made in previous studies we also show that results obtained using good consumption or aggregate data can be misleading

are teams prone to myopic loss aversion an experimental study on individual versus team investment behavior abstract myopic loss aversion mla has been found to have a persistent influence on individual decision making under risk in this paper i show that team decision making attenuates mla but that teams are also prone to mla

the road less traveled strategy distinctiveness and hedge fund performance we investigate whether skilled hedge fund managers are more likely to pursue unique investment strategies that result in superior performance we propose a measure of the distinctiveness of a fund s investment strategy based on historical fund return data we call the measure the strategy distinctiveness index sdi we document substantial cross sectional variations as well as strong persistence in sdi our main result indicates that on average a higher sdi is associated with better subsequent performance after adjusting for risk funds in the highest sdi quintile outperform funds in the lowest quintile by 3 5 in the subsequent year the author 2011 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oup com oxford university press

the role of heterogeneity in asset pricing the effect of a clustering approach in this article we use a novel clustering approach to study the role of heterogeneity in asset pricing we present evidence that the equity premium is consistent with a stochastic discount factor sdf calculated as the average of the household clusters intertemporal marginal rates of substitution in the 1984 2002 period the result is driven by the skewness of the cluster based cross sectional distribution of consumption growth but cannot be explained by the cross sectional variance and mean alone we find that nine clusters are sufficient to explain the equity premium with relative risk aversion coefficient equal to six the result is robust to various averaging schemes of cluster based consumption growth used to construct the sdf lastly the analysis reveals that standard approximation schemes of the sdf using individual household data produce unreliable results implying a negative sdf

asset pricing puzzles and incomplete markets the representative agent theory of asset pricing is modified to incorporate heterogeneous agents and incomplete markets the model features two types of agents who differ up to a nontradable idiosyncratic component in their endowment processes numerical solutions indicate that individuals are able to diversify a substantial portion of their idiosyncratic income risk through riskless borrowing and lending alone restrictions on the variability of intertemporal marginal rates of substitution hansen and jagannathan 1991 are used to argue that incomplete markets as modeled here cannot account for the properties of asset returns that are anomalous from the perspective of representative agent theory a large literature in financial economics has investigated the extent to which variants of the lucas 1978 general equilibrium theory of asset pricing can account for the joint behavior of aggregate u s consumption and asset returns by and large this literature has concluded that a theory based upon frictionless arrow debreu markets and or a representative agent makes strongly counterfactual predictions regarding even the simple unconditional properties of this relationship mehra and prescott 1985 for instance show that the theory drastically underpredicts the average excess rate of return on u s stocks the so called equity premium puzzle weil 1989 points out as did mehra and prescott that the magnitude of the average risk free rate is far below that predicted by the theory this has been dubbed the risk free rate puzzle numerous authors including grossman melino and shiller 1987 and backus gregory and zin 1989 show that the theory cannot account for term premia inherent in the yield curve hodrick 1987 surveys a large literature which documents the theory s shortcomings in accounting for excess expected returns in foreign exchange markets the notion that the representative agent model cannot account for excess returns across a wide array of asset markets can be made more precise by using tools developed by hansen and jagannathan 1991 and shiller 1982

portfolio choice and risk attitudes an experiment i introduction suppose an investor is faced with a decision concerning how to allocate financial resources between a risky lottery asset with a higher expected return and an asset with a fixed and guaranteed lower return is the choice of portfolio independent of preferences outside the standard neoclassical model in experiments with financial incentives we study how portfolio choice depends on three well documented behavioral phenomena ambiguity aversion the illusion of control and myopic loss aversion we also investigate whether participants are willing to explicitly pay a small sum of money to indulge such preferences pay for more perceived control less ambiguity or more frequent opportunities to change the portfolio based on feedback about its performance while standard finance theory presumes that investors successfully identify and process information relevant to reaching optimal decisions in recent years a body of empirical evidence suggests that there are systematic departures from this behavior behavioral finance is concerned with psychological influences in financial decision making and markets investors make decisions while trying to stay afloat in a sea of uncertainty when predictability is low people may be prone to unjustified beliefs that may survive and even flourish in such an environment 1 people may resort to rules of thumb on a conscious or subconscious level to the extent that psychological influences are present it is economically important to consider which of these actually affect risk attitudes and portfolio choice a key issue is whether any such influences disappear when monetary incentives are present we pursue a systematic experimental comparison of three of the most prominent behavioral phenomena documented in the literature the illusion of control langer 1975 is concerned with greater confidence in one s predictive ability or in a favorable outcome when one has a higher degree of personal involvement even when one s involvement is not actually relevant ambiguity aversion ellsberg 1961 is the desire to avoid unclear circumstances even when this will not increase the expected utility myopic loss aversion benartzi and thaler 1995 combines loss aversion kahneman and tversky 1979 tversky and kahneman 1992 and a tendency to evaluate outcomes frequently this combination leads investors to be more willing to invest a greater proportion of their portfolio in risky assets if they evaluate their investments less frequently we show that these phenomena are present with monetary incentives and also investigate whether people are willing to pay money to accommodate such preferences or whether they are closer to the rational model when incentives are present with the procedure we chose the willingness to actually pa for such preferences depends on the preference the great majority of investors pay for less ambiguity or more frequent feedback investment opportunities but fewer than 10 pay to roll a determinative die themselves 2 we then examine how the preferences between lotteries in the different treatments affect portfolio choice we have participants allocate their investment capital between an asset with a sure return and a risky asset with a higher expected rate of return in fact there is very little variation in investment behavior across any of the illusion of control or ambiguity aversion treatments in contrast the results found in previous experimental studies of myopic loss aversion suggest that participants invest less in their preferred option the main conclusion we draw from these findings is that the relation between which procedure or lottery people prefer and how much they are willing to actually invest in this lottery is not trivial at all people are generally unwilling to pay even small amounts of money to indulge the illusion of control and it does not influence their portfolio choice people are generally willing to pay money for less ambiguity but having less ambiguity does not influence their portfolio choice finally in some cases people are willing to pay money for more frequent feedback and opportunities to change their portfolio but again previous studies have shown that people invest less with this additional information and greater flexibility

efficiency of experimental security markets with insider information an application of rational expectations models the study reports on the ability of competing models of market information integration and dissemination to explain the behavior of simple laboratory markets for a one priced security returns to the security depended upon a randomly drawn state of nature some agents insiders whose identity was unknown to other agents knew the state before the markets opened with replication of market conditions the predictions of a fully revealing rational expectations model are relatively accurate prices adjusted immediately to near rational expectations prices profits of insiders were virtually indistinguishable from non insiders and efficiency levels converged to near 100 percent

full insurance in the presence of aggregate uncertainty this paper tests implications of full consumption insurance the object is to determine how much mileage can be obtained from a model with complete markets with such features as private information or liquidity constraints omitted the implication exploited is that individual consumption responds to aggregate risk but not to idiosyncratic risk the test involves regressing the change in household consumption onto the change in aggregate consumption and other right hand side variables such as the change in household income and change in employment status all variables other than the change in aggregate consumption are predicted to be insignificant in explaining the change in household consumption with observations on consumption and income for 10 695 households from the consumer expenditure survey the results are mixed the results for one specification exponential utility are mostly consistent with full consumption insurance the results for the other specification power utility are not

a simple test of consumption insurance are consumers effectively insured against idiosyncratic shocks to income or wealth either by formal institutions such as charities private insurance and government programs or by informal mechanisms such as gifts and loans from relatives friends and neighbors under full insurance consumption growth should be cross sectionally independent of idiosyncratic variables that are exogenous to consumers this proposition is tested by cross sectional regressions of consumption growth on a variety of exogenous variables full insurance is rejected for long illness and involuntary job loss but not for spells of unemployment loss of work due to strike and an involuntary move

myopic prospect theory vs myopic loss aversion how general is the phenomenon abstract individuals often act myopically in evaluating sequences of investment opportunities for loss averse decision makers myopia causes the sequence to look less attractive and might result in rejecting an investment program that would have been accepted otherwise in this paper we argue that the relation between myopia and the attractiveness of a lottery sequence is less general than previously suggested in the literature we extend the concept myopic loss aversion to myopic prospect theory predicting that for specific risk profiles myopia will not decrease but increase the attractiveness of a sequence we support our theoretical predictions by experimental evidence

consumption and risk sharing over the life cycle a striking feature of u s data on income and consumption is that inequality increases with age this paper asks if individual specific earnings risk can provide a coherent explanation we find that it can we construct an overlapping generations general equilibrium model in which households face uninsurable earnings shocks over the course of their lifetimes earnings inequality is exogenous and is calibrated to match data from the u s panel study on income dynamics consumption inequality is endogenous and matches well data from the u s consumer expenditure survey the total risk households face is decomposed into that realized before entering the labor market and that realized throughout the working years in welfare terms the latter is found to be more important than the former

the market value of information some experimental results the authors examine the price and allocation of purchased information and of the underlying asset in eight double auction asset market experiments observed outcomes support fully revealing rational expectations in simple environments in which uninformed traders can easily infer the private information of informed traders but support nonrevealing rational expectations in more complex environments the private value of information is positive in the more complex noisy environments but competition forces the information price to its nash equilibrium value and the net gain by purchasers is approximately zero copyright 1992 by university of chicago press

effects of ambiguity in market experiments prior studies have shown that individuals are averse to ambiguity in probability many decisions are however made in market settings where an individual s decision is influenced by decisions of others participating in the market in this paper we extend the previous research to evaluate the effect of ambiguity on individual decisions and the resulting market price in market settings we therefore examine an important issue whether ambiguity effects persist in the face of market incentives and feedback two different market organizations the sealed bid auction and the double oral auction were employed the subjects in the experiments were graduate business students and bank executives our results show that the individual bids and market prices for lotteries with ambiguous probabilities are consistently lower than the corresponding bids and market prices for equivalent lotteries with well defined probabilities the aversion to ambiguity therefore does not vanish in market settings our results provide insights into what a manager can expect in bidding situations where the object of the sale oil leases mineral rights involves ambiguity in probability due to for example lack of information or prior experience the results may also be useful in understanding some phenomena in insurance and equity markets

evaluation periods and asset prices in a market experiment we test whether the frequency of feedback information about the performance of an investment portfolio and the flexibility with which the investor can change it influence her risk attitude in markets in line with the prediction of myopic loss aversion benartzi and thaler 1995 we find that more information and more flexibility result in less risk taking market prices of risky assets are significantly higher if feedback frequency and decision flexibility are reduced this result supports the findings from individual decision making and shows that markets do not eliminate such behavior

welfare measurement and representative consumer theory abstract this paper generalizes results from anderson et al 1992 linking individual random utility and aggregate representative individual demand models to consider a comparable relation for the willingness to pay functions for quality attributes of marketed goods it also suggests how the logic can be used to describe links between choice occasion and aggregate models across occasions for an individual

market incompleteness and the equity premium puzzle evidence from state level data abstract this paper investigates the importance of market incompleteness by comparing the rates of risk aversion estimated from complete and incomplete markets environments for the incomplete markets case we use consumption data for the 50 us states we find that the rate of risk aversion under the incomplete markets setup is much lower furthermore including the second and third moments of the cross sectional distribution of consumption growth in the pricing kernel lowers the estimate of risk aversion these findings suggest that market incompleteness ought to be seen as an important component of solutions to the equity premium puzzle