behavioral contract theory abstract this review provides a critical survey of psychology and economics behavioral economics research in contract theory first i introduce the theories of individual decision making most

new blood as an elixir of youth effects of human capital tenure on the explorative capability of aging firms the relationship between firm age and innovation has been an enduring topic of interest we contribute to this research by studying how the effect of firm age on the quality of explorative and exploitative innovations is affected by the firm specific and industry tenure of the talent resources employees that the firm utilizes we start with the baseline predictions that firm age is related to the development of better exploitative innovations and worse explorative innovations however the tenure of employees intervenes in these relationships by way of bringing in new knowledge mental models and beliefs we predict that longer firm specific and industry tenure of employees enhances the positive effect of firm age on the quality of exploitative innovations while amplifying the negative effect of firm age on the quality of explorative innovations in addition for both the baseline and the moderating effect we also formulate a prediction comparing the quality of explorative innovations with those of

cooperation and entry induction as an extension of technological rivalry abstract this paper investigates how the structure of cooperation in an industry influences the dynamics of entry by start up firms competition over technological dominance induces the entry of start up firms into new subfields as incumbent firms seek to expand the consumer base using their technology by cooperating incumbent firms succeed to varying degrees in establishing their technologies as a dominant standard by building central positions in a cooperative network start ups tend to enter however if there is reasonable certainty that a dominant technology has been established we find strong support for the relationship between network centrality as a measure of technological dominance of a standard and the entry of start up firms into the semiconductor industry

technological discontinuities and the challenge for incumbent firms destruction disruption or creative accumulation the creative destruction of existing industries as a consequence of discontinuous technological change is a central theme in the literature on industrial innovation and technological development established competence based and market based explanations of this phenomenon argue that incumbents are seriously challenged only by competence destroying or disruptive innovations which make their existing knowledge base or business models obsolete and leave them vulnerable to attacks from new entrants this paper challenges these arguments with detailed empirical analyses of the automotive and gas turbine industries we demonstrate that these explanations overestimate the ability of new entrants to destroy and disrupt established industries and underestimate the capacity of incumbents to perceive the potential of new technologies and integrate them with existing capabilities moreover we show how intense competition in the wake of technological discontinuities driven entirely by incumbents may instead result in late industry shakeouts we develop and extend the notion of creative accumulation as a way of conceptualizing the innovating capacity of the incumbents that appear to master such turbulence specifically we argue that creative accumulation requires firms to handle a triple challenge of simultaneously a fine tuning and evolving existing technologies at a rapid pace b acquiring and developing new technologies and resources and c integrating novel and existing knowledge into superior products and solutions

the economic consequences of discrete recognition and continuous measurement abstract discrete recognition is a long standing and ubiquitous accounting practice but it has been widely criticized for suppressing information and inducing accounting motivated transactions we study a model to examine the economic consequences of shifting away from discrete recognition to a continuous measurement approach without manipulation discrete recognition is less informative than the continuous approach however the continuous regime induces more manipulation the equilibrium informativeness is determined by both the accounting standard and endogenous manipulation discrete recognition is more informative than its continuous counterpart precisely when manipulation is a severe threat we respond to the recent call in kothari ramanna and skinner 2010 for using positive accounting theory to explain certain long standing accounting practices we also discuss the model s implications for fair value accounting

explaining the attacker s advantage technological paradigms organizational dynamics and the value network abstract understanding when entrants might have an advantage over an industry s incumbent firms in developing and adopting new technologies is a question which several scholars have explained in terms of technological capabilities or organizational dynamics this paper proposes that the value network the context within which a firm competes and solves customers problems is an important factor affecting whether incumbent or entrant firms will most successfully innovate in a study of technology development in the disk drive industry the authors found that incumbents led the industry in developing and adopting new technologies of every sort identified by earlier scholars at component and architectural levels competency enhancing and competency destroying incremental and radical as long as the technology addressed customers needs within the value network in which the incumbents competed entrants led in developing and adopting technologies which addressed user needs in different emerging value networks it is in these innovations which disrupted established trajectories of technological progress in established markets that attackers proved to have an advantage the rate of improvement in product performance which technologists provide may exceed the rate of improvement demanded in established markets this mismatch between trajectories enables firms entering emerging value networks subsequently to attack the industry s established markets as well

terminating hyperinflation in the dismembered habsburg monarchy to assess the validity of thomas sargent s claim that hyperinflation can be terminated without dire employment effects monthly unemploymentpercentage estimates were constructed for poland hungary and austriaover the period both before and after monetary stabilization followingworld war i these data reveal that there were significant effects onemployment in the three territories unemployment peaked in poland at alittle less than 13 percent in hungary at 12 percent and probably higher and in austria at 7 percent an attempt is made to identify those considerations that contributed to the emergence of unemploymentwith the advent of monetary stabilization copyright 1986 by american economic association

a rothschild stiglitz approach to bayesian persuasion abstract rothschild and stiglitz 1970 represent random variables as convex functions integrals of the cumulative distribution function combining this representation with blackwell s theorem 1953 we characterize distributions of posterior means that can be induced by a signal this characterization provides a novel way to analyze a class of bayesian persuasion problems

technological regimes and schumpeterian patterns of innovation this paper proposes that the specific pattern of innovative activities in an industry can be explained as the outcome of different technological learning regimes a technological regime is defined by the particular combination of technological opportunities appropriability of innovations cumulativeness of technical advances and properties of the knowledge base building upon the distinction between schumpeter mark i and schumpeter mark ii industries this paper provides empirical estimates of the relationships between indicators of the schumpeterian patterns of innovation concentration of innovative activities stability in the hierarchy of innovators and importance of new innovators and indicators of the variables defining technological regimes

inflation and currency reform expectations of currency reform are explicitly incorporated into a rational expectations version of the cagan model of money market equilibrium where expectations about the timing of reform are lerived from a simple government rule for choosing when to reform the currency the model is estimated for three of the episodes of hyperinflation that cagan investigated and the results support the hypothesis that expectations of reform were responsible for the apparent instability of the demand for money during the final months of these hyperinflations

firm size and r d intensity a re examination using data from the federal trade commission s line of business program and survey measures of technological opportunity and appropriability conditions this paper finds that overall firm size has a very small statistically insignificant effect on business unit r d intensity when either fixed industry effects or measured industry characteristics are taken into account business unit size has no effect on the r d intensity of business units that perform r d but it affects the probability of conducting r d business unit and firm size jointly explain less than one per cent of the variance in r d industry effects explain nearly half the variance two sets of well known hypotheses are associated with the later work of joseph schumpeter the first concerns the effects of market concentration on research and development investment and on innovative performance the second bears on the effects of firm size on r d and innovation in a recent paper levin cohen and mowery 1985 we re examined the first set of hypotheses simple regressions at the line of business level replicated the established findings that both r d intensity and innovative performance first increase and then decrease as industrial concentration rises the effect of concentration however was sharply attenuated when we controlled for interindustry differences in technological opportunity and in the appropriability of returns from new technology our results suggested that it is probably unwarranted to conclude that market concentration favors r d investment and innovation in this paper we investigate the schumpeterian hypothesis that large size is conducive to r d investment this relationship has been studied at least as intensively as the link between concentration and r d but our approach is novel in two respects first using data collected by the federal trade

demonstrations and price competition in new product release we incorporate product demonstrations into a game theoretic model of price competition demonstrations may include product samples trials return policies online review platforms or any other means by which a firm allows consumers to learn about their value for a new product in our model demonstrations help individual consumers to learn whether they prefer an innovative product over an established alternative the innovative firm controls demonstration informativeness when the innovative firm commits to demonstration policies and there is flexibility in prices the firm is best off offering fully informative demonstrations that divide the market and dampen price competition in contrast when a firm can adjust its demonstration strategy in response to prices the firm prefers only partially informative demonstrations designed to maximize its market share such a strategy can generate the monopoly profit for the innovative firm we contrast the strategic role of demonstrations in our framework with

sources procedures and microeconomic effects of innovation fabio arcangeli paul david frank engelman christopher freeman massimo moggi richard nelson luigi orsenigo nathan rosenberg michele salvati g n von tunzelman two anonymous referees and the participants at the meeting of the committee on distribution growth and technical progress of the italian national research council cnr rome november 16 1985 have helped with various redraftings a particularly grateful acknowledgment is for the insightful and patient help of moses abramovitz this work has been undertaken at the science policy research unit spru university of sussex as part of the research program of the designated research centre sponsored by the economic and social research council esrc earlier support to the research that led to this paper by the italian national research council cnr is also gratefully acknowledged the statistical research has been undertaken with the assistance of stephano brioschi ilaria fornari and giovannu prennushi

the influence of technology and demand factors on firm size and industrial structure in the dram market 1973 1988 abstract the focus of this research is on the impact of the diffusion of innovations in integrated circuit technology on the market structure of that industry and the implications of firm strategy for both further innovation and market structure change the study examines the effects of sustained product innovation over a fifteen year period in the dram segment of the integrated circuit industry assessments are made on first mover advantages shape of the diffusion curve and resource needs in a market characterized by an increasingly complex technology comparisons are made along the dimensions of number of firms in the market continuity of the firms and market concentration

bayesian persuasion in coordination games regime change games have been studied widely in the economic literature in the contexts of bank runs currency attacks political revolutions and others usually agents need to coordinate an attack against the status quo once sufficiently many agents attack the regime changes and agents who were attacking benefit from their attack otherwise the regime stays and agents who were attacking it have to bear a cost an important angle of coordination games is the transmission of information from the policymaker or the defender of the status quo to the agents who have to make a decision whether to attack the regime the policymaker can attempt to change the information available to agents to increase the likelihood of the survival of the regime in this paper we present a model where the policymaker attempts to transmit information in this spirit specifically we study a model where the policymaker can commit to abandon the regime automatically before agents choose whether to attack or not if the fundamentals determining the strength of the regime are below a certain threshold the benefit of committing to abandon the regime more often is that conditional on the regime not being automatically abandoned agents update their information to account for the fact that the fundamentals are above the threshold and so their inclination to attack decreases the disadvantage is that it directly increases the likelihood that the regime will not survive since it is automatically abandoned analyzing this problem we show that the policymaker finds it optimal to commit to abandon the regime often enough such that when agents see that the policymaker did not abandon it they choose not to attack hence the policymaker chooses to maximize the benefit out of the infor mational transmission channel from the committed policy at the same time the policymaker has no additional benefit in committing to abandon the regime beyond that point as it will cause too frequent abandonment without additional information benefits the commitment ability of the policymaker is key here we show that without commitment ability the policymaker ends up abandoning automatically less often

persistence of innovation discriminating between types of innovation and sources of state dependence abstract this paper advances current research on the persistence of innovation drawing on a panel data set constructed from three waves of the german part of the community innovation survey covering the time span from 2002 to 2008 i e cis iv cis 2007 and cis 2009 we explore persistence patterns for various types of innovation i e organizational product and process innovation and allowing for the moderating impact of firm level characteristics we use the ascertained patterns of persistence to comparatively evaluate various sources and underlying theoretical accounts of state dependence

the downsides of information transmission and voting abstract i analyze a model of information transmission in collective choice environments an expert possesses private information about the consequences of passing an exogenous proposal and engages in cheap talk to persuade voters to pass or reject the proposal the expert may successfully persuade the voters to take her preferred action even when all or most voters would receive a better ex ante payoff with no information transmission i consider several remedies that an institutional designer may consider in order to avoid this problem while allowing information transmission that benefits the voters i evaluate the effects of 1 limiting expert communication to binary endorsements 2 encouraging competition between experts and 3 restricting the agenda in order to consider only one dimension at a time none of these proposals completely eliminate negative persuasion outcomes but limiting the expert to binary endorsements avoids the worst manipulation while preserving beneficial information transmission

adoption of green chemistry an analysis based on us patents abstract green chemistry patents are an indicator of environmental innovation and r d over 3200 green chemistry patents were granted in the us patent system between 1983 and 2001 with most assigned to the chemical sector the university and government sectors place greater emphasis on green chemistry than most industrial sectors worldwide the emphasis on green chemistry technology relative to chemical plastic rubber and polymer technologies has increased since 1988 the united states appears to have a competitive advantage in green chemistry the most rapid growth in the emphasis on us green chemistry patents coincides with revisions to major us environmental laws in the late 1980s and early 1990s however the ratio of green chemistry patents to patents in other areas of chemical sciences in heavily regulated industries are low suggesting that these industries did not necessarily embrace green chemistry as a means to reduce their regulatory burden

evaluating innovation and labour market relationships the case of italy in this paper the link between labour market flexibility and innovation is analysed paying particular attention to the different technological regimes of economic activities and the different geographical areas of the italian economy a dynamic panel data specification is used to assess the endogenous relationship between patents included as a proxy of the innovation and job turnover and wages which represent labour market indicators the results show that higher job turnover only has a significant and negative impact on patent activities in regional sectors of northern italy while a positive and significant impact of blue and white collar wages has been generally found

sectoral patterns of technical change towards a taxonomy and a theory abstract the purpose of the paper is to describe and explain sectoral patterns of technical change as revealed by data on about 2000 significant innovations in britain since 1945 most technological knowledge turns out not to be information that is generally applicable and easily reproducible but specific to firms and applications cumulative in development and varied amongst sectors in source and direction innovating firms principally in electronics and chemicals are relatively big and they develop innovations over a wide range of specific product groups within their principal sector but relatively few outside firms principally in mechanical and instrument engineering are relatively small and specialised and they exist in symbiosis with large firms in scale intensive sectors like metal manufacture and vehicles who make a significant contribution to their own process technology in textile firms on the other hand most process innovations come from suppliers these characteristics and variations can be classified in a three part taxonomy based on firms 1 supplier dominated 2 production intensive 3 science based they can be explained by sources of technology requirements of users and possibilities for appropriation this explanation has implications for our understanding of the sources and directions of technical change firms diversification behaviour the dynamic relationship between technology and industrial structure and the formation of technological skills and advantages at the level of the firm the region and the country

promotional reviews an empirical investigation of online review manipulation abstract firms incentives to manufacture biased user reviews impede review usefulness we examine the differences in reviews for a given hotel between two sites expedia com only a customer can post a review and tripadvisor com anyone can post we argue that the net gains from promotional reviewing are highest for independent hotels with single unit owners and lowest for branded chain hotels with multiunit owners we demonstrate that the hotel neighbors of hotels with a high incentive to fake have more negative reviews on tripadvisor relative to expedia hotels with a high incentive to fake have more positive reviews on tripadvisor relative to expedia jel l15 l83 m31

innovation and industry evolution the theoretical literature on innovation has been concerned with a single innovation produced by a number of identical agents by contrast we consider a market in which one firm is the current incumbent while the remaining firms are challengers moreover we consider a sequence of innovations so that success does not imply that the successful firm reaps monopoly profits forever after but only until the next better innovation is developed we begin with a fully optimizing behavioral model and derive the equivalent of the schumpeterian process of creative destruction that is a firm enjoys temporary monopoly power but is soon overthrown by a more inventive challenger the essential point to grasp is that in dealing with capitalism we are dealing with an evolutionary process the fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers goods the new methods of production or transportation the new markets the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates schumpeter 1942 pp 82 83

the propensity to patent abstract this paper analyzes the relationship between 1974 rd among the exceptions the tendency was toward diminishing returns variables measuring overseas sales federal r d support diversification scope of invention use and invention type had only modest explanatory power there was no significant evidence of disproportionate patent accumulation in the more highly concentrated industries

r d appropriability opportunity and market structure new evidence on some schumpeterian hypotheses one of the largest bodies of literature in the field of industrial organization is devoted to the interpretation and testing of several hypotheses advanced by joseph schumpeter 1950 concerning innovation and industrial market structure one set of hypotheses focuses on the role of firm size as a determinant of r d spending and the rate of technological advance another set focuses on the effect of market concentration on r d and technological advance in this paper we reexamine the latter set of hypotheses at the industry level using new data on r d appropriability and technological opportunity collected by levin et al 1984 in a survey of r d executives in 130 industries

market networks and corporate behavior data on market relations between a large population of corporations and investment banks are used to study the organization market interforce the pattern of direct market ties between a firm and its banks forms of interfaces range from a long term exclusive tie the relationship interface to many short lived episodic ties the transaction interface with hybrid forms between the two poles contrary to widespread belief the article finds that strong relationships still exist transactions interfaces are rare most firms use hybrid interfaces a firm s interface is conceptualized as the intentional result of its efforts to reduce dependence and exploit power advantages observed interfaces are shown to be related systematically to various power dependence concepts including resource intensity number of transactions and dollar amounts raised criticality the availability of resource alternatives power asymmetry between a firm and its main bank organization size standardization of exchange and

is it a car or a truck managerial beliefs the choice of product architecture and the emergence of the minivan market segment new markets segments are a common setting for studies in technology strategy these studies generally assume that new segments already exist or have formed following the introduction of a product innovation by an entering firm thus theory on the role of established firms in the emergence of new market segments is underdeveloped this study informs current research by explaining the product innovation decisions of established firms during the emergence of a new market segment the results of a case study on the development and commercialization of the minivan at chrysler ford and general motors between 1970 and 1985 indicate that existing theories based on managerial cognition firm capabilities economic incentives and organizational structure are insufficient to explain the decisions this article develops theory based on the interrelationship of these four mechanisms

runs versus lemons information disclosure and fiscal capacity we study the optimal use of disclosure and fiscal backstops during financial crises providing information can reduce adverse selection in credit markets but negative disclosures can also trigger inefficient bank runs in our model governments are thus forced to choose between runs and lemons a fiscal backstop mitigates the cost of runs and allows a government to pursue a high disclosure strategy our model explains why governments with strong fiscal positions are more likely to run informative stress tests and paradoxically how they can end up spending less than governments that are more fiscally constrained

manipulated electorates and information aggregation we study information aggregation with a biased election organizer who recruits voters at some cost voters are symmetric ex ante and prefer policy a in state a and policy b in state b but the organizer prefers policy a regardless of the state each recruited voter observes a private signal that is imperfectly informative about the unknown state but does not learn the size of the electorate in contrast to existing results for large elections there are equilibria in which information aggregation fails as the voter recruitment cost disappears a perfectly informed organizer can ensure that policy a is implemented independent of the state by appropriately choosing the number of recruited voters in each state

the real bills doctrine versus the quantity theory a reconsideration two competing monetary policy prescriptions are analyzed within the context of overlapping generations models the real bills prescription is for unfettered private intermediation or central bank operations designed to produce the effects of such intermediation the quantity theory prescription in contrast is for restrictions on private intermediation designed to separate money from credit although our models are consistent with quantity theory predictions about money supply and price level behavior under these two policy prescriptions the models imply that the quantity theory prescription is not pareto optimal and the real bills prescription is

schumpeterian patterns of innovation using patent data for four countries germany france united kingdom and italy for the period 1968 1986 the authors find that the patterns of innovative activities differ systematically across technological classes while remarkable similarities emerge across countries in the patterns of innovative activities for each technological class this result strongly suggests that technological imperatives and technology specific factors closely linked to technological regimes play a major role in determining the patterns of innovative activities across countries schumpeter proposed two major patterns of innovative activities the first one labelled by nelson and winter 1982 and kamien and schwartz 1982 as schumpeter mark i is proposed in the theory of economic development 1934 in this work schumpeter examined the typical european industrial structure of the late nineteenth century characterised by many small firms according to this view the pattern of innovative activity is characterised by technological ease of entry in an industry and by a major role played by new firms in innovative activities new entrepreneurs come in an industry with new ideas new products or new processes launch new enterprises which challenge established firms and thus continuously disrupt the current ways of production organisation and distribution and wipe out the quasi rents associated with previous innovations the second one labelled schumpeter mark ii is proposed in capitalism socialism and democracy 1942 in this work inspired by the features of the american industry of the first half of the twentieth century schumpeter discussed the relevance of the industrial r d laboratory for technological innovation and the key role of large firms according to this view the pattern of innovative activities is characterised by the prevalence of large established firms and by relevant barriers to entry for new innovators large firms have institutionalised the innovation process with the creation of r d laboratories filled with researchers technicians and engineers with their accumulated stock of knowledge in specific technological areas their advanced competence in large scale r d projects production and distribution and their relevant financial resources they create barriers to entry to new entrepreneurs and small firms

transition pathways revisited established firms as multi level actors in the heavy vehicle industry abstract the multi level perspective on sustainability transitions positions established firms incumbents as defenders of existing technologies at the regime level by contrast it positions new entrants at the niche level as promoters of new technologies this paper challenges the positioning of firms as actors on either regime or niche levels based on a comparative analysis of technology strategies in the heavy vehicle industry the paper shows that established firms are active at both levels developing several technology alternatives simultaneously this means that incumbents technology strategies determine important parts of the required niche regime interactions the paper also shows how incumbents may pursue contrasting technology strategies while some adopt a dualistic approach keeping regime and niche level activities technologically and commercially separate others develop integrated strategies where niche activities are leveraged to impact upon the regime level the cases studied illustrate how the success of such integrated strategies depends on the emergence of bridging policies bridging policies are relevant both for linking early niche markets to broader regime level markets and for supporting further technological advancements of niche markets

schumpeterian competition technological regimes and learning through knowledge spillover abstract this paper builds upon winter 1984 in which the author discusses two views of schumpeter on competition specifically technological regimes and the role of knowledge spillovers for innovation are examined an agent based simulation model is formulated which captures the relevant aspect of competition between firms in an innovative industry results of the simulation runs indicate that at first the technological development in terms of process and product innovations is better in an industry that is characterized by schumpeter mark ii conditions but the improved technological development is connected with higher prices and profits which could be interpreted as a trade off between static and dynamic efficiency second in both scenarios market and industry concentration rises over time showing a strong separation between successful firms and those lagging behind in technological terms and third surprisingly firms in a schumpeter mark i regime seem to be more technologically specialized furthermore this article proves that a replication of simulation models is possible and useful

the voyage of the beagle into innovation explorations on heterogeneity selection and sectors the aim of the paper is to assess heterogeneity of the innovation process using exploratory factor analysis on micro data from the third community innovation survey in 13 countries we identify four patterns that can be interpreted as research user external and production ingredients of innovation all too often it is assumed that how firm innovate can be represented by differences across sectors and or countries to put this proposition under scrutiny we partition variability of the factors scores into components identified by these higher levels sectors and countries matter to a certain extent but far more of the variance is given by heterogeneity among firms within both of them however groups of firms produced by cluster analysis account for much higher share of the variance which indicates that the most relevant stratification of the data cuts across the established sectoral and national boundaries we discuss implications of these findings for understanding of selection in evolutionary economics and for the literature on innovation systems

the demand for money the reform effect and the money supply process in hyperinflation the evidence from greece and hungary ii reexamined newly uncovered data on money and prices in greece and hungary duri ng their hyperinflations are used to reestimate the cagan money demand equation and to repeat the sargent and wallace causality tests it is no longer necessary to exclude observations at the end of each episo de on the premise that they represent the response to an anticipated monetary reform the results for each country now conform to the sargent and wallace findings for most other hyperinflation episodes that causality runs from prices to money i e that money is endogenous copyright 1988 by ohio state university press

application specific r d capabilities and the advantage of incumbents evidence from the anticancer drug market this paper examines the proposition that during competence destroying technological changes incumbents are incompetent in researching in house a radically new technology they only retain market leadership if their undestroyed proprietary complementary assets compensate for their research incompetence in contrast to prior research i propose that there is not one but two sets of capabilities necessary to execute research and development r d sets that differ in their market specificity a technology specific set i e technological platforms that are non market specific and an application specific set i e knowledge of the application that is therefore market specific although all markets require both sets of capabilities to execute r d prior research has analyzed cases where the application was not as complex and therefore application specific capabilities did not represent strategic factors because at the start of a technological discontinuity application specific capabilities are undestroyed and have accrued only to incumbents when complex enough these capabilities can represent a source of competitive advantage for these firms even in the face of competition from diversifying entrants reusing previously acquired technological platforms i find evidence consistent with my proposition based on data on outcomes from drug discovery as estimated through clinical endpoints in phase i trials for firms competing in the anticancer drug market one of the most complex markets within pharmaceuticals as the market transitions into the biotechnology revolution the proposition in this paper implies that although technological platforms can help firms move across markets application specific r d capabilities can help firms retain leadership within a market across technological discontinuities

linking the technological regime to the technological catch up analyzing korea and taiwan using the us patent data this article examines the relationship between the technological regime and the technological catch up using us patent data this study first extends the notion of technological regimes as more appropriate for the catching up context before it goes on to develop the quantitative expressions of technological regime variables then it investigates in which technological classes technological catch up tends either to occur or not to occur and what affects the speed of the catch up this study has found that catching up is more likely to happen in those technological classes with shorter technological cycle time and more initial stock of knowledge and that among those candidate classes the actual speed of catch up varies depending on appropriability and knowledge accessibility this implies that the factors that determine the occurrence of catch up and the speed of catch up are different comparing the level of technological capability of the advanced and catching up economies the article has found that catching up countries tend to achieve high levels in the technological sectors with shorter cycle time easier access to knowledge and higher appropriability whereas the advanced countries show the exactly opposite performances the study also confirms the organizational selection hypothesis such that the firms of different organizations and strategies show divergent degrees of fitness in the different environment or technological regime we find that the korean firms find themselves more fitted to technological regimes featured by low appropriability and high cumulativeness persistence whereas the taiwanese firms are more fitted to technological regimes featured by high appropriability and low cumulativeness persistence our findings are consistent with the following characterization of the firms in korea and taiwan the korean firms dominated by the so called chaebols especially in patent registrations are characterized as less flexible large diversified conglomerates and pursing more independent r d and learning strategies the taiwanese firms are characterized as more flexible network based specialized firms and pursuing more cooperative r d and learning strategies copyright 2006 oxford university press

the rise of clusters of innovative industries in belgium during the industrial epoch abstract this article presents the notion of cluster of innovative industries in order to analyse long term techno industrial change in belgium this notion accounts for strong and dynamic techno economic linkages interdependencies and complementarities that may occur between a set of industries for a particular period of time each cluster has its roots in a set of closely related major innovations that link particular industries to each other through a dynamic process of transfer and feedback of technology via various mechanisms we identified a number of 12 clusters of innovative industries that have emerged in the leading industrial countries since the first industrial revolution we also present empirical outcomes concerning the extent to which belgium participated in these clusters during the industrial epoch the belgian case shows that lagging countries are incapable of developing fully these clusters major components of the clusters were either missing or underdeveloped or they emerged with a considerable delay due to first mover advantages among other reasons

competition in persuasion we study symmetric information games where a number of senders choose what information to communicate we show that the impact of competition on information revelation is ambiguous in general we identify a condition on the information environment i e the set of signals available to each sender that is necessary and sufficient for equilibrium outcomes to be no less informative than the collusive outcome regardless of preferences the same condition also provides an easy way to characterize the equilibrium set and governs whether introducing additional senders or decreasing the alignment of senders preferences necessarily increases the amount of information revealed

hyperinflations their origins development and termination abstract this paper summarizes and critically surveys research on hyperinflation appraisal and review of the literature considers the origins development termination and the lessons to be learned from hyperinflations the historical evidence as well as the econometric evidence is analyzed it is concluded that while the lessons to be learned from such episodes perhaps have been overstated a number of useful implications may be derived from studying hyperinflations such as an understanding of the forces which link monetary and fiscal policies to inflation and policy makers role in influencing individuals expectations

process consistency and monetary reform some further evidence abstract in this paper we provide additional evidence that process consistency may have materialized as a restrictive constraint on the money generation process in addition to recomputing the time series of process consistency probabilities using new data from the german case we also supply our empirical technique to the data from the other hyperinflations studied by cagan the results are consistent with our earlier conclusions in extreme hyperinflation process consistency may have materialized as a restrictive constraint on the money generation process

persistence of innovative activities sectoral patterns of innovation and international technological specialization abstract in this paper we focus on the role of persistence and heterogeneity of innovative activities at the level of the firm in determining the patterns of technological change in different industries and countries we ask are persistence and heterogeneity associated with higher degrees of concentration in innovative activities stability in the ranking of innovators and lower degrees of entry and exit in the population of innovators or do the patterns of innovation depend on other variables like firm size and industrial concentration moreover what are the relationships between the patterns of innovative activities their determinants and the technological specialization of countries we compute indicators of persistence and heterogeneity using the otaf spru patent database at the firm level for five european countries over the period 1969 1986 for 33 technological classes then we estimate the relationships between our indicators of the sectoral patterns of innovative activities and international technological specialization on the one hand and our indicators of persistence heterogeneity and market structure on the other results show that persistence and asymmetries are important and strongly related phenomena that affect the patterns of innovative activities across countries and sectors while the role of market structure variables is less clear finally international technological specialization is associated to a competitive core of persistent innovators

patterns of innovation and organizational demography in emerging sustainable fields an analysis of the chemical sector this paper examines the patterns of environmental innovation in the chemical sector and focuses in particular on detecting whether the rise of sustainable chemistry technologies sct has stimulated the emergence of new organizations this question is important to assess the extent to which sct are sustaining the technological advantage of industry incumbents or are creating opportunities for new firms aspiring to develop radically new environmental innovations we found that sct still represent a relatively low proportion of chemical technologies and that they have not stimulated in a significant way the emergence of new firms however the importance of new firms has grown in the last 20 years and their technologies seem to have a higher potential of radicalness than incumbents technologies this indicates that although incumbents advantage remains strong a small group of young firms has started to weaken such advantage moreover the important role played by research organizations in generating sct may signal that technological opportunities are expanding and that some governments in particular the us government are committed to develop sct these results suggest that if supported by effective policies technological ferment in the field which at the present appears still limited has a potential of growth

technological diversity of persistent innovators in japan two case studies of large japanese firms we have investigated two large japanese firms with their patent data technological histories and product sales data of over 30 years especially in terms of intra firm technology diversification and interactions between multiple technological trajectories patent data showed the process of emergencies of technological trajectories and interactions cross fertilization between them quantitatively both persistence and diversity of technology have contributed to product diversification and sales growth based on our findings we have demonstrated that taking advantage of economies of scope in technology through persistence and diversification is necessary for a technology based firm if it is to survive and to grow for a prolonged period of time 2003 elsevier b v all rights reserved

sectoral systems of innovation and production the concept sectoral system of innovation and production provides a multidimensional integrated and dynamic view of sectors it is proposed that a sectoral system is a set of products and the set of agents carrying out market and non market interactions for the creation production and sale of those products a sectoral systems has a specific knowledge base technologies inputs and demand agents are individuals and organizations at various levels of aggregation they interact through processes of communication exchange co operation competition and command and these interactions are shaped by institutions a sectoral system undergoes change and transformation through the co evolution of its various elements 2002 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

a structural decomposition analysis of technological opportunity corporate survival and leadership this article considers corporate technological leadership and survival in the face of changing technological opportunities over the period 1930 1990 for firms selected from three broad industrial groups by using us patent data in a novel application of structural decomposition analysis it considers the extent to which selected firms positions of technological leadership benefited from a favorable change in the structure of their technological environment relative to changes caused through firm level choices copyright 2007 oxford university press

interim bayesian persuasion first steps some recent information transmission models kamenica and gentzkow 2011 rayo and segal 2010 view the sender as an information structure designer this view emphasizes a connection between design and information transmission it departs from traditional models of information transmission crawford and sobel 1982 grossman 1981 milgrom 1981 spence 1973 since it assumes that the sender commits to an information system before learning her type so that her choice is by itself uninformative by contrast there is a small but active tradition in mechanism design following myerson 1983 that considers the possibility that a choice of mechanism by an informed principal may be used as a signal by the participants in the mechanism through the study of an example this short paper proposes a modest first step toward building a theory of information structure design by an informed principal i work in a simple framework where a sender whose type is either high or low seeks validation from a receiver who wants to validate high types exclusively the sender chooses an infor mation system i e a conditional distribution of signals for each of her types from a feasible set i allow for potential restrictions on the set of feasible information systems which is important to make bayesian persuasion models more flexible i consider perfect bayesian equilibria of the game in which the sender chooses an information system after learning her type and the receiver chooses whether to validate after observing the signal generated by the information system

the limits of price discrimination we analyze the welfare consequences of a monopolist having additional information about consumers tastes beyond the prior distribution the additional information can be used to charge dierent prices to dierent segments of the market i e carry out third degree price discrimination we show that the segmentation and pricing induced by the additional information can achieve every combi nation of consumer and producer surplus such that i consumer surplus is non negative ii producer surplus is at least as high as pro ts under the uniform monopoly price and iii total surplus does not exceed the e cient gains from trade as well as characterizing the welfare impact of price discrimination we examine the limits of how prices and quantities can change under price discrimination we also examine the limits of price discrimination in richer environments with quantity discrimination and limited ability to segment the market

schumpeterian patterns of innovation are technology specific this paper examines the patterns of innovative activities at the technological and country levels using patent data for 49 technological classes in six countries usa japan germany france united kingdom and italy it is shown that the patterns of innovative activities differ systematically across technological classes but are remarkably similar across countries for each technological class in particular two groups of technological classes are identified schumpeter mark i and schumpeter mark ii in these two groups innovative activities are structured and organized in different ways the first represents a widening pattern concentration of innovative activities is low innovators are of small economic size stability in the ranking of innovators is low and entry of new innovators is high the second represents a deepening pattern concentration of innovative activities is higher than in the first group innovators are of larger economic size stability in the ranking of innovators is greater and entry is lower the former group comprises mechanical technologies and traditional sectors while the latter includes chemicals and electronics this result suggests that technology related factors such as technological regimes defined in terms of conditions of opportunity appropriability cumulativeness and properties of the knowledge base play a major role in determining the specific pattern of innovative activities of a technological class across countries within these constraints country specific factors introduce differences across countries in the pattern of innovative activities for a specific technological class finally the relationships between the specific features of the patterns of innovative activities and international technological specialization are examined technological advantages appear in general to be linked to higher degrees of asymmetries among innovators higher stability of the ranking of innovators smaller economic size of the innovating firms and lower entry rates of new innovators these relationships however are different in the two groups of technological classes in schumpeter mark i widening technological classes international technological specialization is associated with relatively higher degrees of asymmetries among innovators and entry of new innovators as well as smaller firm size while in schumpeter ii deepening technological classes international technological specialization is linked to the existence of a stable but competitive core of persistent innovators

the end of the hungarian hyperinflation of 1945 1946 the rational expectations approach to macroeconomics suggests that hyperinflations were ended abruptly without significant output or unemployment costs using new evidence the author finds that while transition costs did take place following the hungarian hyperinflation of 1945 46 they were not linked to the credibility of the regime change although the evidence presented actually reinforces the rational expectations interpretation of the end of hyperinflations the paper also stresses the importance of distinguishing between an economy experiencing high inflation and one emerging from a milder inflation copyright 1989 by ohio state university press

short waves in hungary 1923 and 1946 persistence chaos and lack of control abstract monetary policies follow a complex and chaotic process one that is enhanced when monetary growth is taken to the extreme as in hyperinflation while we have a basic understanding of the complex dynamics of hyperinflation a less explored phenomenon accompanying hyperinflationary episodes is the effect that they have on institutional development building on recent advances in economic history examining monetary policy and institutions this analysis uses more explicit recourse to complexity theory and in particular complex adaptive systems to examine two separate hyperinflationary episodes in hungary 1923 and 1946 delving into the institutional and cultural roots of the inflationary policies of the hungarian government and detailing the institutional effects which succeeded hyperinflation this paper shows that the twin experiences of hungary were both chaotic and created a chaotic and complex aftermath the results of which are still being felt indeed hungary s 1923 and especially its 1946 hyperinflation shows that some economic chaos cannot be restrained by political institutions and in fact the institutions themselves were changed when staring into the abyss hungary also found that the abyss stared back

survival of businesses using collaborative relationships to commercialize complex goods authors with many theoretical and managerial perspectives argue that businesses commercializing technologically complex goods benefit when they collaborate closely with other businesses collaboration is viewed as a means for businesses to overcome competency limitations and to achieve the close configuration of components required for complex goods we predict that collaborative relationships often assist businesses to produce complex goods but that the relationships might also cause problems for the collaborating businesses we find that firms using development oriented and marketing oriented collaborative relationships in the hospital software systems industry are less likely to shut down than businesses that follow independent approaches when the environment changes gradually but businesses using collaborative relationships are sometimes susceptible to being acquired by other firms following a sudden environmental shock businesses with collaborative relationships for activities central to the shock became more likely to shut down while businesses with collaborative relationships for activities outside the focus of the shock became more likely to survive the study critically evaluates and tests the widely stated but little tested argument that interfirm collaboration is usually beneficial the results address the issue of whether organizational choices affect comparative business performance

technological regimes and sectoral patterns of innovative activities this paper focuses on the relationships between observed patterns of innovative activities within a sector and the related context and underlying microeconomic processes that might account for them it claims that there are some invariant features with respect to relative prices and incentives mechanisms of learning and knowledge accumulation that greatly affect the rate and structure of innovative activity these features are different across sectors the paper proposes that the specific pattern of innovative activity of a sector can be explained as the outcome of different technological regimes that are implied by the nature of technology and knowledge the notion of technological regime provides a synthetic representation of some of the most important economic properties of technologies and of the characteristics of the learning processes that are involved in innovative activities copyright 1997 by oxford university press

the persistence of innovative activities abstract this paper examines the persistence of innovative activities at the firm level in a comparative perspective a new data set is used composed of six panel data one for each of the following countries france germany italy uk japan and the usa for each country we use data on patent applications to the european patent office in the period 1978 1993 by 1200 1400 manufacturing firms using a transition probability matrix tpm approach we find evidence for the existence of persistence in innovative activities although it is not very high in the aggregate and it declines as time goes by however both great innovators and non innovators have a high probability to remain in their state and persistent innovators originate a disproportionate share of innovative activities in this sense persistence in innovative activities is quite strong these tendencies apply to all countries considered here although clear country specific properties are observed moreover there is heterogeneity also across industrial and size classification intersectoral differences are invariant across countries suggesting that persistence is at least partly a technology specific variable persistence tends to increase with firm size but the relationship between firms size and persistence is strongly country specific and it is not a simple one

sectors and the additionality effects of r d tax credits a cross country microeconometric analysis abstract do the additionality effects of r d tax credits vary across sectors the paper presents a micro econometric analysis of this question for three countries norway italy and france we use a panel of firm level data from three waves of the innovation surveys carried out in these countries for 2004 2006 and 2008 the study estimates input and output additionality effects of r d tax credits in each of these economies and it investigates how these effects differ across sectors characterized by different r d orientation and competition conditions the results point out that firms in industries with high r d orientation have on average higher propensity to apply to r d fiscal incentives schemes and stronger input and output additionality effects output additionality is found to differ among the three examined countries

the underemphasized role of established firms as the sources of major innovations we argue that established firms including industry incumbents and diversifying entrants play vital all underemphasized roles as the sources of major innovations in many industries the study presents empirical evidence showing that established firms are often sources of major innovations in the telecommunications and medical sectors we conduct an exploratory investigation of how variation in the types of technical and market change influence whether industry incumbents diversifying entrants or nets companies are the sources of major innovations copyright 1996 by oxford university press