valuing inputs under supply uncertainty the bayesian shapley value we consider the problem of valuing inputs in a production environment in which input supply is uncertain inputs can be workers in a firm risk factors for a disease securities in a financial market or nodes in a networked economy each input takes its values from a finite set and uncertainty is modeled as a probability distribution over this set first we provide an axiomatic solution to our valuation problem defining three intuitive axioms which we use to uniquely characterize a valuation scheme that we call the a priori shapley value second we solve the problem of valuing inputs a posteriori that is after observing output this leads to the bayesian shapley value third we consider the problem of rationalizing uncertainty when the inputs are rational workers supplying labor in a non cooperative production game in which payoffs are given by the shapley wage function we find that probability distributions over labor supply that can be supported as mixed strategy nash equilibria always exist we also provide an intuitive condition under which we prove the existence of a pure strategy nash equilibrium we present several applications of our theory to real life situations

the impact of fair trade certification for coffee farmers in peru smallholder farmers producing for fair trade market outlets are usually considered to benefit from better prices and stable market outlets however many empirical studies verifying this impact suffer from strong selection bias this study uses a balanced sample of fair trade farmers and likewise nonfair trade producers of organic and conventional coffee from peru to compare the net effects on production income and expenditures wealth and investments and attitudes and perceptions after careful matching we find only modest direct income and production effects but significant changes in organization input use wealth and assets and risk attitudes moreover important differences between farmers with early and more recent ft affiliation are registered

petrol prices oil price rises and oil price falls some evidence for the uk since 1972 this paper examines the relationship between retail petrol prices excise duties and crude oil prices in the uk over the period 1973 1988 the existence of a stable relationship between the petrol price level of excise duty and spot oil price is confirmed through use of the cointegration approach although the speed of reaction of petrol prices to changes in the crude price depends on whether crude prices are rising or falling any asymmetry in the pricing response is virtually absent after an adjustment period of only four months

fidelity networks and long run trends in hiv aids gender gaps more than half of the hiv aids infected population today are women we study a dynamic model of in fidelity which explains the hiv aids gender gap by the configuration of sexual networks each individual desires sexual relationships with opposite sex individuals two markov matching processes are defined each corresponding to a different culture of gender relations the first process leads to egalitarian pairwise stable networks in the long run and hiv aids is equally prevalent among men and women the second process leads to anti egalitarian pairwise stable networks reflecting male domination and women bear a greater burden the results are consistent with empirical observations

testing for asymmetric pricing in the canadian retail gasoline market abstract this paper applies a threshold regression model to test for asymmetric pricing in the retail gasoline market in canada using weekly data for the period january 1990 to december 1996 we present results for 13 canadian cities for both premium and regular gasoline within the context of an error correction model we test for the presence of asymmetric price behaviour using average changes in crude prices as well as various lags for the change in crude as possible thresholds we are unable to find any evidence to support this view

the economics of poverty traps and persistent poverty an asset based approach abstract longitudinal data on household living standards open the way to a deeper analysis of the nature and extent of poverty while a number of studies have exploited this type of data to distinguish transitory from more chronic forms of income or expenditure poverty this paper develops an asset based approach to poverty analysis that makes it possible to distinguish deep rooted persistent structural poverty from poverty that passes naturally with time due to systemic growth processes drawing on the economic theory of poverty traps and bifurcated accumulation strategies this paper briefly discusses some feasible estimation strategies for empirically identifying poverty traps and long term persistent structural poverty as well as relevant extensions of the popular foster greer thorbecke class of poverty measures the paper closes with reflections on how asset based poverty can be used to underwrite the design of persistent poverty reduction strategies

certification and access to export markets adoption and return on investment of organic certified pineapple farming in ghana summary global food markets demand adherence to food standards by farmers in developing countries such as globalgap and organic certifications this paper analyzes the adoption and profitability of certified farming using farm level data of 386 ghanaian small scale pineapple farmers we employ an endogenous switching regression model to examine the adoption and impact of organic certification on the return on investment roi in pineapple farming the empirical results indicate that both organic and globalgap certification achieve a positive roi however organic certified farming yields a significantly higher roi than globalgap certified farmers mainly due to the price premium on the organic market

rockets and feathers the asymmetric speed of adjustment of uk retail gasoline prices to cost changes abstract the paper develops a quadratic quantity adjustment model to test the hypothesis put forward in the recent monopolies and mergers commission report that the speed of adjustment of uk retail gasoline prices to cost changes is more rapid when costs rise than when they fall and that the adjustment path is more concentrated around the mean value on the upswing using data from 1982 to 1989 evidence of faster and more concentrated responses to cost increases were found

oil and pump prices testing their asymmetric relationship in a robust way abstract the aim of this study is to provide a novel method to assess whether retail fuel prices respond asymmetrically to changes in the international crude oil prices to do so we consider the whole supply chain we use daily data and we depart from the current practice in the literature that focuses on prices rather we consider the mark ups of both the refineries and retailers hence we show that we first need to assess whether the refineries mark up responds asymmetrically to the international crude oil prices and subsequently whether the retailers mark up shows an asymmetric behaviour relatively to changes in the refined fuel prices focusing in greece as our case study our findings show that greek fuel retailers do not change their mark up behaviour based on changes of the refined fuel price by contrast the asymmetric behaviour is evident in the refineries mark up relatively to changes in the international crude oil prices which is then passed through to the retailers and consumers finally we provide evidence that weekly and monthly data mask any such asymmetric relationship thus we maintain that unless the appropriate data frequency fuel price transformations and the whole supply chain are considered misleading findings could be revealed

organic agriculture and fair trade a happy marriage a case study of certified smallholder black pepper farmers in india summary this study examines whether the joint adoption of organic and fair trade systems adds additional benefits to smallholders in developing countries we use panel data collected from 300 smallholder rural black pepper growers in kerala india to assess household welfare impacts we apply a multinomial endogenous switching regression model along with a counterfactual analysis to estimate certification effects results show that both certification systems have a significant impact on income compared to conventional black pepper farming however membership in fair trade marketing systems does not increase income of organic farmers but has positive effects on asset accumulation of smallholder farmers

climate change adaptation a study of fuel choice and consumption in the us energy sector abstract using cross sectional data this paper estimates a national energy model of fuel choice by both households and firms consumers in warmer locations rely relatively more heavily on electricity rather than natural gas oil and other fuels they also use more energy climate change will likely increase electricity consumption on cooling but reduce the use of other fuels for heating on net american energy expenditures will likely increase resulting in welfare damages that increase as temperatures rise for example if the us warms by 5 c by 2100 we predict annual welfare losses of 57 billion

price rigidity in the downstream petroleum industry in new zealand where does it happen this paper examines the pricing behaviour of the downstream petroleum product market in new zealand using multivariate error correction models the unique feature of these models is the use of actual weekly wholesale and retail prices of diesel and unleaded petrol to measure the relative rigidity of domestic prices the results suggest that price adjustments in domestic markets in response to price changes in world crude oil markets and refined product markets are very weak domestic wholesale prices appear to be the key variable in determining retail prices lack of competition in the wholesale sector is found to be the main reason for weak price adjustments

symmetric or asymmetric price adjustments in the oil market an empirical analysis of the relations between international and domestic prices in the federal republic of germany 1972 89 abstract this paper investigates how german consumer and wholesale prices for gasoline and light heating oil react to changes in the corresponding rotterdam prices monthly data from 1972 to 1989 are employed and the subperiods of the 1970s 1972 to 1979 and 1980s 1980 1989 are distinguished error correction models are estimated to seperate long run equilibrium relations and short run adjustment processes for the 1980s we find rapid symmetric and full adjustment of the german prices to the rotterdam prices whereas during the 1970s we find some asymmetries and at least for gasoline the adjustment processes took considerably more time

price knowledge in household demand for utility services a household s decision to acquire price knowledge is endogenous in the demand for utility services and may affect elasticities and consumption levels a simultaneous equation model with endogenous switching is developed to evaluate the effects of price knowledge and other sources of heterogeneity results indicate informed households were more responsive to average and marginal price signals informed households also use less water but this is due to heterogeneity rather than price knowledge controlling for heterogeneity price knowledge actually increases monthly water usage the implications of accounting for differences in price knowledge in utility demand modeling and demand management policy are discussed

assessing the impact of fair trade coffee towards an integrative framework this article presents an impact assessment framework that allows for the evaluation of positive and negative local level impacts that have resulted from responsible trade interventions such as fair trade and ethical trade the framework investigates impact relating to 1 livelihood impacts on primary stakeholders 2 socio economic impacts on communities 3 organizational impacts 4 environmental impacts 5 policies and institutional impacts and 6 future prospects it identifies relevant local level stakeholders and facilitates the analysis of conflicting interests the framework was developed in the context of and is applied in this article to the fair trade coffee industry in northern nicaragua it was designed however so that it can be applied across commodity sectors and responsible trade initiatives it is able to do this by accommodating for differences in the social environmental political and institutional contexts of different areas and by taking into account the distinct nature of an initiative s overall objectives different levels of intervention and the full range of stakeholders involved

how can african agriculture adapt to climate change a counterfactual analysis from ethiopia we analyze the impact of different adaptation strategies on crop net revenues in the nile basin of ethiopia we estimate a multinomial endogenous switching regression model of climate change adaptation and crop net revenues and implement a counterfactual analysis households data are combined with spatial climate data we find that adaptation to climate change based upon a portfolio of strategies significantly increases farm net revenues changing crop varieties has a positive and significant impact on net revenues when coupled with water conservation strategies or soil conservation strategies but not when implemented in isolation jel q54 q56

market driven coal prices and state administered electricity prices in china this paper analyzes how the chinese government adjusts electricity prices for both industrial and residential users in response to changes in coal prices using an asymmetric error correction model our results show that there is a long term relation between the coal price and electricity prices but the relationship is weak especially for residential pricing in the short run we find electricity prices are adjusting faster upwards than downwards price adjustment towards long run equilibrium is faster for residential users upwards than downwards on the other hand we find no evidence of asymmetric equilibrium adjustment in the electricity price for industrial use the weak long term relationship reflects the rigidity in electricity pricing and government s reluctance to subject end users to fluctuations of raw materials cost shifts

is there an asymmetry in the response of diesel and petrol prices to crude oil price changes evidence from new zealand this paper examines how pre tax petrol and diesel prices in new zealand respond to changes in crude oil prices using an asymmetric error correction model our results show that oil companies adjust diesel prices upwards faster than they adjust them downwards and the difference is statistically significant however we find no statistical evidence for an asymmetry in the adjustment of petrol prices even though the magnitude of estimated coefficients suggests a faster response to rising prices as diesel pricing is not as competitive as petrol pricing calls for further government actions and monitoring of the oil market may be justified our findings also have important implications for the conduct of monetary policy as the pass through of crude oil price changes can affect cost push inflation

liaisons dangereuses increasing connectivity risk sharing and systemic risk the recent financial crisis poses the challenge to understand how systemic risk arises endogenously and what architecture can make the financial system more resilient to global crises this paper shows that a financial network can be most resilient for intermediate levels of risk diversification and not when this is maximal as generally thought so far this finding holds in the presence of the financial accelerator i e when negative variations in the financial robustness of an agent tend to persist in time because they have adverse effects on the agent s subsequent performance through the reaction of the agent s counterparties 2012 elsevier b v all rights reserved

gender agricultural production and the theory of the household virtually all models of the household assume that the allocation of resources is pareto efficient within many african households agricultural production occurs on many plots controlled by different members of the household pareto efficiency implies that factors should be allocated efficiently across these plots i find in contrast that plots controlled by women are farmed much less intensively than similar plots within the household controlled by men the estimates imply that about 6 percent of output is lost because of inefficient factor allocation within the household the paper suggests a new approach to modeling intrahousehold allocation consistent with the empirical results

the impact of oil price shocks in the canadian economy a structural investigation on an oil exporting economy abstract oil price shocks and monetary policy response by oil producing economies have been the subject of important theoretical investigation in the modern literature this topic seems to be well grounded since fluctuations in the us dollar which is affected by us monetary policy plays an important role in exacerbating run ups and precipitous falls in world oil prices we investigate the economic consequences of oil price shocks using an open economy dsge model that incorporates demand for and supply of oil while allowing for interaction between domestic and foreign monetary policy using canadian and u s data we quantify the relative importance of oil price shocks and monetary policy response on macroeconomic variables we show that domestic monetary policy is a key channel that accounts for over 40 of discounted variation in domestic output across a 4 year horizon after an oil shock in contrast us monetary policy is of lesser importance in propagating oil price shocks on an oil exporting economy through the international channel

the impact of coffee certification on small scale producers livelihoods a case study from the jimma zone ethiopia what is the impact of product certification on small scale farmers livelihoods to what extent does the participation of ethiopian small scale coffee farmers in certified local cooperative structures improve their socioeconomic situation to answer these questions this article employs household data of 249 coffee farmers from six different cooperatives collected in the jimma zone of southwestern ethiopia in 2009 findings show that the certification of coffee cooperatives has in total a low impact on small scale coffee producers livelihoods mainly due to 1 low productivity 2 insignificant price premium and 3 poor access to credit and information from the cooperative differences in production and organizational capacities between the local cooperatives are mirrored in the extent of the certification benefits for the smallholders good cooperatives have reaped the benefits of certification whereas bad ones did not fare well in this regard the cooperative effect overlies the certification effect

the economic sustainability of certified coffee recent evidence from mexico and peru consumers increasingly act on preferences for a more just and sustainable world by purchasing certified agricultural products using survey data from coffee growers in mexico and peru we explore the economic sustainability of certified coffee looking at conventional fair trade organic and rainforest alliance certified growers the analysis reveals that yields rather than price premiums are most important for increasing net cash returns for coffee growing households given the link between net returns and producer participation in certified coffee schemes the findings suggest that certification norms that permit improving yields are essential for improving grower welfare and attracting and maintaining growers

shapley value for multichoice cooperative games i abstract we extend cooperative games in characteristic function form to multichoice cooperative games in such multichoice games shapley value is extended the explicit formula is given to compute the value american mathematical society classification numbers 90d12 90d40 journal of economic literature classification numbers c71 d46 d61 d72

the value allocation of an economy with differential information we analyze the shapley value allocation of an economy with differential information since the intent of the shapley value is to measure the sum of the expected marginal contributions made by an agent to any coalition that he she belongs to the value allocation of an economy with differential information provides an interesting way to measure the information advantage of an agent this feature of the shapley value allocation is not necessarily shared by the rational expectation equilibrium thus we analyze the informational structure of an economy with differential information from a different and new viewpoint

food standards certification and poverty among coffee farmers in uganda summary voluntary standards are gaining in importance in global markets for high value foods we analyze and compare impacts of three sustainability oriented standards fairtrade organic and utz on the livelihoods of smallholder coffee farmers in uganda using survey data and propensity score matching with multiple treatments we find that fairtrade certification increases household living standards by 30 and reduces the prevalence and depth of poverty for the other two certification schemes no significant impacts are found several factors that can explain differential impacts are discussed overly general statements about the effects of sustainability standards on smallholder livelihoods may be misleading

lloyd shapley s matching and game theory this is a survey of lloyd shapley s contributions to matching theory and game theory in general starting with the work that inspired the swedish academy to award the 2012 nobel memorial prize in economic sciences to lloyd shapley and alvin roth

modeling multiple adoption decisions in a joint framework a multinomial probit mnp model is applied to the modeling of adoption decisions by farmers facing multiple technologies which can be adopted in various combinations this model allows for full investigation of the interactions between decisions to adopt or not adopt several technologies estimation is carried out in a bayesian framework employing gibbs sampling to circumvent past difficulties encountered in maximum likelihood estimation of the mnp model the model is estimated for a sample of u s apple growers with four possible sustainable production technology bundles the results show that adoption decisions are most significantly influenced by off farm labor supply

do gasoline prices respond asymmetrically to crude oil price changes the authors test and confirm that retail gasoline prices respond more quickly to increases than to decreases in crude oil prices among the possible sources of this asymmetry are production inventory adjustment lags and market power of some sellers by analyzing price transmission at different points in the distribution chain the authors attempt to shed light on these theories spot prices for generic gasoline show asymmetry in responding to crude oil price changes which may reflect inventory adjustment effects asymmetry also appears in the response of retail prices to wholesale price changes possibly indicating short run market power among retailers