efficient search on the job and the business cycle the paper develops a model of directed search on the job in which transitions of workers between unemployment and employment and across employers are driven by heterogeneity in the quality of firm worker matches the equilibrium is such that the agents value and policy functions are independent of the endogenous distribution of workers across employment states hence the model can be solved outside of the steady state and used to measure the effect of cyclical productivity shocks on the labor market productivity shocks are found to generate large fluctuations in workers transitions unemployment and vacancies when matches are experience goods but not when matches are inspection goods

an examination of ethical influences on the work of tax practitioners as a contribution to the continuing debate about tax practitioner ethics this paper explores the main streams of western ethical thought that are relevant to tax practitioners work most typically deontology and consequentialism although virtue ethics and distributive justice are also considered it then goes on to consider the impact of such ethical influences on the professional ethical codes of conduct that govern tax practitioners work with specific reference to the uk and ireland and attempts to unravel the complex work and ethical environment of the practice of tax in terms of tax compliance and tax avoidance the paper then examines the prior studies on tax practitioners and ethics and the type of dilemmas that practitioners face in the context of their work the paper proceeds to examine empirically the extent to which tax practitioners take a consequentialist versus a deontological approach in their reasoning about moral dilemmas this is carried out by an innovative use of the defining issues test

beauty premium and marriage premium in search equilibrium theory and empirical test we propose a theoretical explanation for the so called beauty premium our approach relies entirely on search frictions and the fact that physical appearance plays an important role in attracting a marriage partner we analyze the interaction between frictional labor and marriage markets making use of what we label constrained job search the optimal strategy entails different reservation wages for different men and we establish the existence of a search equilibrium characterized by a beauty premium and or marriage premium predicted profiles of premia allow for potential falsification tests and point to relevant empirical evidence in support of our theory

consumer search incomplete exchange rate pass through and optimal interest rate policy this paper studies utility maximizing monetary policy in a two country economy with consumer search frictions search frictions provide a microfoundation for incomplete exchange rate pass through and international deviations from the law of one price lop i show that optimal interest rate policy targets deviations from the lop and acts to mitigate the effect of search frictions in a quantitative setting with internationally correlated technology and preference shocks optimal policy generates positive cross country correlation of nominal interest rates

equilibrium unemployment dynamics the global dynamics of pissarides 1990 equilibrium model of aggregate unemployment are studied in the case of increasing returns to scale in production and constant returns to scale in the matching process an equilibrium is a dynamic path for the aggregate number of matches generated by best response search and recruiting investment decisions under rational expectations necessary and sufficient conditions for multiple equilibria including limit cycles are derived and illustrative examples are computed the application of saddle loop bifurcation theory is a novel feature of the analysis since one equilibrium pareto dominates all the others a macroeconomic coordination problem exists

an economic rationale for the pricing structure of bank loan commitments abstract an economic rationale is provided for the competitive equilibrium deployment of commitment and usage fees in loan commitment pricing it is shown that under perfect information assessing both fees rather than just one permits optimal risk sharing when the borrower is privately informed about its probability of future commitment utilization commitment and usage fees can be used to induce borrowers to identify themselves by self selection through contract choice the equilibrium characterized here is dissipative and thus raises the usual existence questions which are addressed in the paper

financial intermediation as a beliefs bridge between optimists and pessimists this paper proposes a new framework for understandingnancial intermediation in contrast to previous research we consider a setting in which intermediaries possess no inherent information processing or monitoring advantages instead in an economy with overly optimistic entrepreneurs who require funding from overly skeptical pessimistic investors we show that intermediaries can arise endogenously in such a setting only a rational intermediary will be su ciently optimistic tond it worthwhile to invest in a technology for screening entrepreneurs projects and yet be pessimistic enough to use this technology our framework produces implications consistent with heretofore unexplained stylized facts and a number of others which are as of yet untested

liquidity monetary policy and unemployment a new monetarist approach we discover a consumption channel of monetary policy in a model with money and government bonds when the central bank withdraws government bonds short term or long term through open market operations it lowers returns on bonds the lower return has a direct negative impact on consumption by households that hold bonds and an indirect negative impact on consumption by households that hold money as a result firms earn less profits from production which leads to higher unemployment the existence of such a consumption channel can help us understand the effects of unconventional monetary policy

maximum likelihood estimation of search costs abstract in a recent paper hong and shum 2006 using price distributions to estimate search costs rand journal of economics 37 257 275 present a structural method to estimate search cost distributions we extend their approach to the case of oligopoly and present a new maximum likelihood method to estimate search costs we apply our method to a data set of online prices for different computer memory chips the estimates suggest that the consumer population can be roughly split into two groups which either have quite high or quite low search costs search frictions confer a significant amount of market power to the firms despite more than 20 firms operating in each of the markets we estimate price cost margins to be around 25 the paper also illustrates how the structural method can be employed to simulate the effects of the introduction of a sales tax

institutional determinants of capital structure adjustment speeds abstract many authors relate a firm s performance to legal and political features and the regulatory environment in which it operates this article compares firms capital structure adjustments across countries and investigates whether institutional differences help explain the variance in estimated adjustment speeds we find that legal and financial traditions significantly correlate with firm adjustment speeds more narrowly institutional features also relate to adjustment speeds consistent with the hypothesis that better institutions lower the transaction costs associated with adjusting a firm s leverage such associations between institutional arrangements and leverage adjustment speeds are consistent with the dynamic trade off theory of capital structure choice

an equilibrium model with involuntary unemployment at flexible competitive prices and wages this paper presents a general equilibrium model in which all prices and quantities transacted are the direct choices of econom ic agents there is no walrasian auctioneer multiple subgame perfect equilibria exist with prices and wages at their walrasian levels among the equilibrium allocations are the walrasian ones but there a re also outcomes in which price and wage taking workers are rationed in the labor market and are unable to sell all the labor they want a t the prevailing wage this involuntary unemployment results from sel f fulfilling expectations of inadequate excess demand as in some inte rpretations of keynes s ideas copyright 1987 by american economic association

job search and unemployment insurance new evidence from time use data article i nfo this paper provides new evidence on job search intensity of the unemployed in the u s modeling job search intensity as time allocated to job search activities the major findings are 1 the average u s unemployed worker devotes about 41 min to job search on weekdays which is substantially more than their european counterparts 2 workers who expect to be recalled by their previous employer search substantially less than the average unemployed worker 3 across the 50 states and d c job search is inversely related to the generosity of unemployment benefits with an elasticity between 1 6 and 2 2 4 job search intensity for those eligible for unemployment insurance ui increases prior to benefit exhaustion and 5 time devoted to job search is fairly constant regardless of unemployment duration for those who are ineligible for ui

costly monitoring financial intermediation and equilibrium credit rationing abstract this paper establishes a link between equilibrium credit rationing and financial intermediation in a model with asymmetrically informed lenders and borrowers costly monitoring and investment project indivisibilities intermediation is shown to dominate borrowing and lending between individuals and these financial intermediaries exhibit several of the important features of intermediaries as we know them equilibrium interest rates and the aggregate quantity of loans respond quite differently to changes in taste and technology parameters depending on whether or not there is rationing in equilibrium

size and performance of banking firms testing the predictions of theory abstract in recent years two important literatures on the theory of banking firms have developed one examines the economic functions of banks in environments in which agents are asymmetrically informed another considers the incentive effects moral hazard resulting from deposit insurance both theories make predictions about the relation between banking firm size and performance an empirical analysis of large bank holding companies investigates measures of market valuation and risk of failure limited support is provided for either set of theoretical predictions

financial intermediary capital we propose a dynamic theory of financial intermediaries that are better able to collateralize claims than households that is have a collateralization advantage intermediaries require capital as they have to finance the additional amount that they can lend out of their own net worth the net worth of financial intermediaries and the corporate sector are both state variables affecting the spread between intermediated and direct finance and the dynamics of real economic activity such as investment and financing the accumulation of net worth of intermediaries is slow relative to that of the corporate sector the model is consistent with key stylized facts about macroeconomic downturns associated with a credit crunch namely their severity their protractedness and the fact that the severity of the credit crunch itself affects the severity and persistence of downturns the model captures the tentative and halting nature of recoveries from crises

on compliance with ethical standards in tax return preparation the statements on responsibilities in tax practice srtps provide guidance to the cpa when making decisions in tax practice many of these decisions are ethical in nature and have implications for tax compliance in this study a survey methodology is used to test whether the srtps affect decisions that cpas make the findings suggest that a clear majority of cpas follow the srtps when making ethical decisions relating to tax return preparation and that cpas follow the srtps more often than unlicensed preparers on half the issues tested however a statistically significant number of cpas do not follow the srtps and cpas do not follow the srtps any more often than unlicensed tax preparers on three issues

sticky prices a new monetarist approach why do some sellers set nominal prices that apparently do not respond to changes in the aggregate price level in many models prices are sticky by assumption here it is a result we use search theory with two consequences prices are set in dollars since money is the medium of exchange and equilibrium implies a nondegenerate price distribution when the money supply increases some sellers may keep prices constant earning less per unit but making it up on volume so profit stays constant the calibrated model matches price change data well but in contrast to typical sticky price models money is neutral jel e52 e31 e42

gluttony and sloth calories labour market activity and the rise of obesity the rise in obesity has largely been attributed to an increase in calorie consumption we show that official government household survey data indicate that levels of calorie consumption have declined in england between 1980 and 2013 while there has been an increase in calories from food eaten out at restaurants fast food soft drinks and confectionery overall there has been a decrease in total calories purchased households have shifted towards more expensive calories both by substituting away from home production towards market production and substituting towards higher quality foods we show that the decline in calories can be partially but not entirely rationalized with weight gain by a decline in the strenuousness of work and daily life jel d12 i12 i18

wealth and volatility we document that in the us over the course of the past century there has been a systematic negative relation between household wealth and business cycle volatility we develop a microfounded dynamic equilibrium model that contains elements of a traditional keynesian framework in which economic uctuations can be driven by sunspot type uctuations in household optimism or pessimism the novel feature is that the scope for equilibrium uctuations due to sunspots depends on the exogenously given value of household wealth when wealth is high consumers demand is not sensitive to unemployment expectations and the economy is robust to condence crisis when wealth is low consumers demand is sensitive to unemployment expectations the economy becomes vulnerable to condence driven uctuations and is in general more volatile in this case there is a potential role for public policies to stabilize demand we conclude by providing micro economic evidence on the importance of wealth in aecting the sensitivity of demand to aggregate conditions we show that during the great recession consumers with low

information reliability and a theory of financial intermediation this paper is an analysis of when it will be beneficial for agents engaged in the production of information to form coalitions the model is cast in a financial market framework thus leading to an identification of conditions sufficient for the existence of financial intermediaries intermediation is shown to improve welfare if informational asymmetries are present and the information generated to rectify these asymmetries is potentially unreliable the usual appeal to transactions costs to explain intermediation is not needed

life cycle prices and production we use scanner data and time diaries to document how households substitute time for money through shopping and home production we document substantial heterogeneity in prices paid for identical goods for the same area and time with older households shopping the most and paying the lowest prices doubling shopping frequency lowers a good s price by 7 to 10 percent we estimate the shopper s price of time and use this series to estimate an elasticity of substitution between time and goods in home production of roughly 1 8 the observed life cycle time allocation implies a consumption series that differs markedly from expenditures

the elasticity of substitution between time and market goods evidence from the great recession the elasticity of substitution between time and market goods we document a change in household shopping behavior during the great recession households purchased more on sale larger sizes and generic products increased coupon usage and shopping at discount stores we estimate that the returns to these shopping activities declined during the recession and therefore this behavior implies a significant decrease in households opportunity cost of time using the estimated cost of time and time use data we estimate a high elasticity of substitution between market expenditure and time spent on non market work we find that households smooth a sizable fraction of consumption by varying their time allocation during recessions institutional subscribers to the nber working paper series and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www nber org

financial credibility ownership and financing constraints in private firms as shown in the international business literature the ability of controlling owners to extract private benefits is greater in countries with weaker legal institutions in these countries providing credible financial information could play an especially important role in reducing information asymmetry between private firms and external providers of finance for our sample of firms across 68 countries we find that firms with greater financial reporting credibility i e annual financial statements reviewed by an external auditor experience significantly lower perceived problems in gaining access to external finance further the impact of financial credibility in reducing financing constraints in the presence of a controlling owner is more pronounced in countries with weaker creditor rights given the predominance of private firms around the world their economic significance and the fact that an increasing number of private firms now operate in multinational environments with different institutional features we contribute to the literature on the role of financial information firm characteristics and country level institutions for an important and interesting group of firms

technological learning and labor market dynamics the search and matching model of the labor market fails to match two important business cycle facts i a high volatility of unemployment relative to that of labor productivity and ii a mild correlation between these two variables we address these shortcomings by focusing on the implementation process of technological innovation that is the empirical nding that new technologies are subject to a learning process we consider a novel source of business cycles namely uctuations in the ease or speed of technological learning and show that a search and matching model featuring such shocks can account for both facts moreover our model provides a new interpretation of news shocks discussed in the recent business cycle literature

indeterminacy and increasing returns abstract we investigate properties of the one sector growth model with increasing returns under two organizational structures capable of reconciling the existence of aggregate increasing returns with competitive behavior by firms the first involves input externalities the second involves monopolistic competition we show for parameters in close accord with recent literature on real business cycles that the model displays an indeterminate steady state that can be exploited to generate a model of business fluctuations driven by self fulfilling beliefs in our first class of models growth is generated by exogenous increases in factor productivity in the second class the marginal product of capital is large enough for endogenous growth journal of economic literature classification numbers e00 e3 o40

exposing corrupt politicians the effects of brazil s publicly released audits on electoral outcomes author s finan frederico ferraz claudio abstract this paper examines the extent to which access to information enhances political accountability based upon the results of brazil s recent anti corruption program that randomly audits municipal expenditures of federally transferred funds it estimates the effect of the disclosure of local government corruption practices upon the re election success of incumbent mayors in municipal elections comparing municipalities which were randomly audited before the elections with those audited after the analysis shows that the disclosure of audit results had a significant impact on the re election rates of mayors found to be corrupt for a one standard deviation increase in reported corruption the audit policy reduced the incumbent s likelihood of re election by 25 percent this effect is more pronounced in municipalities where radio stations are present and higher levels of corruption are identified these findings highlight the value of information and the role of the media in reducing informational asymmetries in the political process thus enabling voters to not only hold corrupt politicians accountable but also to reward non corrupt politicians

organizational influences on individual ethical behavior in public accounting a framework is presented for studying ethical conduct in public accounting practice four levels of analysis are distinguished individual local office multi office firm and professional institute several propositions are derived from the framework and discussed 1 the effects of ethical vs unethical behavior on an accountant s prospects for advancement are asymmetrical in nature 2 the way individuals perceive or frame the decision problem at hand will make an ethical response more or less likely 3 the economic incentives present in competitive markets influence the work goals of firms and offices and lead to ethical dilemmas for individuals and 4 initiatives at the firm or institute level aimed at compliance with professional ethical standards will by themselves have little effect on individual ethical behavior research into ethical behavior of practitioners will capture self conscious and biased responses unless it is designed so as to permit indirect observation and recording of spontaneous comments to assure valid research findings practitioners should be interviewed and their motives assessed indirectly a longitudinal approach is recommended beginning with students who are choosing an accounting career two types of questions for use in these interviews are described

chaos sunspots and automatic stabilizers abstract we consider a real business cycle model with an externality in production depending on parameter values the model has sunspot equilibria cyclical and chaotic equilibria and equilibria with deterministic or stochastic regime switching we study the implications of this model environment for automatic stabilizer tax systems stabilization is desirable because the efficient allocations are characterized by constant employment and output growth we identify an automatic stabilizer income tax subsidy schedule with two properties i it specifies the tax rate to be an increasing function of aggregate employment and ii earnings are subsidized when aggregate employment is at its efficient level the first feature eliminates inefficient fluctuating equilibria while the second induces agents to internalize the externality

financial intermediation and delegated monitoring this paper develops a theory of financial intermediation based on minimizing the cost of monitoring information which is useful for resolving incentive problems between borrowers and lenders it presents a characterization of the costs of providing incentives for delegated monitoring by a financial intermediary diversification within an intermediary serves to reduce these costs even in a risk neutral economy the paper presents some more general analysis of the effect of diversification on resolving incentive problems in the environment assumed in the model debt contracts with costly bankruptcy are shown to be optimal the analysis has implications for the portfolio structure and capital structure of intermediaries

trading down and the business cycle abstract we document two facts first during the great recession consumers traded down in the quality of the goods and services they consumed second the production of low quality goods is less labor intensive than that of high quality goods when households traded down labor demand fell increasing the recession s severity we find that the trading down phenomenon accounts for a substantial fraction of the decline in u s employment in the recent recession we show that embedding quality choice in a business cycle model improves the model s amplification and comovement properties

overconfidence ceo selection and corporate governance we develop a model that shows that an overconfident manager who sometimes makes value destroying investments has a higher likelihood than a rational manager of being deliberately promoted to ceo under value maximizing corporate governance moreover a risk averse ceo s overconfidence enhances firm value up to a point but the effect is nonmonotonic and differs from that of lower risk aversion overconfident ceos also underinvest in information production the board fires both excessively diffident and excessively overconfident ceos finally sarbanes oxley is predicted to improve the precision of information provided to investors but to reduce project investment

time use during the great recession using data from the american time use survey between 2003 and 2010 we document that home production absorbs roughly 30 percent of foregone market work hours at business cycle frequencies leisure absorbs roughly 50 percent of foregone market work hours with sleeping and television watching accounting for most of this increase we document significant increases in time spent on shopping child care education and health job search absorbs between 2 and 6 percent of foregone market work hours we discuss the implications of our results for business cycle models with home production and non separable preferences jel codes d13 e32 j22

recognizing ethical issues an examination of practicing industry accountants and accounting students it has long been recognized that accountants practicing in business settings have a dual role 1 as employees they are bound to the organization and 2 as professionals they are bound by the profession s code of ethical conduct westra journal of business ethics 5 2 119 128 1986 these two roles highlight the need to recognize and consider both the ethical and economic implications of their decisions practicing industry accountants are commonly involved in a broad range of their firm s business practices and decision making and are increasingly exposed to the commercial aspects of their companies also during their education they were trained on their professional responsibilities however in general this education was not recent and may not have been reinforced by contrast accounting students have been recently and repeatedly exposed to and have knowledge about their professional responsibilities as an accountant but limited if any exposure to the commercial aspects of business consequently our first hypothesis predicts that the ethical sensitivity of practicing industry accountants will be lower than that of accounting students we find limited support for this hypothesis second we also examine company reward structure and predict that ethical sensitivity will be lower for those in a company with a reward structure narrowly focused only on financial goals as compared to those in a company with a broad reward structure e g including rewards for both financial and non financial goals third we predict that the difference in ethical sensitivity levels between those in a company with a narrow reward structure as compared to those in a company with a broad financial reward structure will be higher for practicing industry accountants compared to accounting students results from our study generally support these last two predictions ethical sensitivity is lower for those in a company with a reward structure narrowly focused only on financial goals as compared to those in a company with a broad reward structure suggesting that companies may be able to increase ethical awareness in their organizations by including non financial goals in their reward structures

the failure of stabilization policy balanced budget fiscal rules in the presence of incompressible public expenditures abstract we consider an infinite horizon neoclassical model with a government that i balances its budget at each point in time ii faces unavoidable incompressible public expenditures and iii further uses a fiscal rule for the share of variable government spending in output with the purpose of stabilizing the economy we show that insulating this economy from belief driven fluctuations is not possible if the government finances these two components of public spending using a distortionary proportional income tax in this case we always have steady state multiplicity two steady states and global indeterminacy while local indeterminacy is also possible more precisely even if a sufficiently procyclical share of the variable government spending component in output is still able to eliminate local indeterminacy two saddle steady states prevail so that depending on expectations the economy may either converge to the low steady state or to the high steady state this implies that a regime switching rational expectation equilibrium where the economy switches between paths converging to the two different steady states easily arises as expectations influence long run outcomes our model is able to generate large and sudden expansions and contractions in response to expectation shocks

intermediation in markets for goods and markets for assets abstract we analyze agents decisions to act as producers or intermediaries using equilibrium search theory extending previous analyses in various ways we ask when intermediation emerges and study its efficiency in one version of the framework meant to resemble retail middlemen hold goods which entails storage costs that model always displays uniqueness and simple transition dynamics in another version middlemen hold assets which entails negative costs i e positive returns that model can have multiple equilibria and complicated belief based dynamics these results are consistent with the venerable view that intermediation in financial markets is more prone to instability than in goods markets

monopolistic competition and the effects of aggregate demand how important is monopolistic competition to an understanding of the effects of aggregate demand on output we ask the question at three levels can monopolistic competition by itself explain why aggregate demand movements affect output can it together with other imperfections generate effects of aggregate demand in a way that perfect competition cannot if so can it give an accurate account of the response of the economy to aggregate demand movements the answers are no yes and yes

consumer search price dispersion and international relative price fluctuations this article develops a model of consumer search consistent with the evidence of substantial price dispersion and time spent shopping within countries to study international deviations from the law of one price lop and relative price fluctuations search frictions lead firms to price discriminate across markets based on the opportunity cost of search which depends on the local wage with productivity and taste shocks estimated from the data deviations from the lop are as volatile and persistent as in the data fluctuations in relative wages real exchange rates and the terms of trade are also consistent with the data

access to finance an unfinished agenda recent data compilations show that many poor and non poor people in many developing countries face a high degree of financial exclusion and high barriers in access to finance theory and empirical evidence point to the critical role that improved access to finance has in promoting growth and reducing income inequality an extensive literature shows the channels through which finance promotes enterprise growth and improves aggregate resource allocation there is less evidence at the household level however and on the effectiveness of policies to overcome financial exclusion the article summarizes recent efforts to measure and analyze the impact of access to finance and discusses the unfinished research agenda

a multidimensional analysis of tax practitioners ethical judgments this study investigates professional tax practitioners ethical judgments and behavioral intentions in cases involving client pressure to adopt aggressive reporting positions an issue that has been identified as the most difficult ethical moral problem facing public accounting practitioners the multidimensional ethics scale mes was used to measure the extent to which a hypothetical behavior was consistent with five ethical philosophies moral equity contractualism utilitarianism relativism and egoism responses from a sample of 67 tax professionals supported the existence of all dimensions of the mes other than egoism regressions of ethical judgments and behavioral intentions on the mes dimensions indicate that ethical decision making is most heavily influenced by the moral equity dimension followed by the contractualism dimension in contrast the utilitarianism and relativism dimensions were only related to ethical judgments and behavioral intentions in isolated instances

intertemporal diversification in financial intermediation abstract this paper examines the incentive problem between a bank and depositors or deposit insurer limited liability makes risk shifting lucrative we show how intertemporal diversification of lending decisions i e bank s loan portfolio consists of overlapping long term loans and is thus gradually renewed may solve the incentive problem of risk shifting a new or expanding bank sets a high equity level and acquires depositors confidence subsequently it can allow its equity to depreciate to a permanently lower level depositors can control the bank by monitoring equity and realized credit losses ex post they do not have to monitor bank s lending choices ex ante maturity mismatch illiquidity of long term loans and liquidity of deposits is optimal the analysis can be extended more generally to the borrower lender relationship

shopping externalities and self fulfilling unemployment fluctuations we propose a novel theory of self fulfilling fluctuations in the labor market a firm employing an additional worker generates positive externalities on other firms because employed workers have more income to spend and have less time to shop for low prices than unemployed workers we quantify these shopping externalities and show that they are sufficiently strong to create s complementarities in the employment decisions of different firms and to generate multiple rational expectations equilibria equilibria differ with respect to agents rational expectations about future unemployment we show that negative shocks to agents expectations lead to fluctuations in vacancies unemployment labor productivity and the stock market that closely resemble those observed in the us during the great recession

instability of endogenous price dispersion equilibria a simulation models of price posting by firms and search by consumers such as burdett and judd 1983 often feature equilibria with endogenous price dispersion however such equilibria are strategically fragile in order to investigate how robust they are in the absence of an external coordination mechanism i simulate various protocols firms may use to update their prices despite firms being myopic some protocols yield results close to the benchmark model if firms rush to update before observing competitors actions profits are higher on average but volatile and cyclical with cost dispersion prices become more stable as they are more closely tied to costs all results are robust to moderate menu costs

markups technology and capital utilization in the great recession abstract a two level ces aggregate production function is used to empirically analyze the fluctuations in markups technology and utilization in the great recession quarterly us gross output data suggest a strong markup increase limited technology movements and a low labor capital substitution elasticity

the unemployment volatility puzzle is wage stickiness the answer i discuss the failure of the canonical search and matching model to match the cyclical volatility in the job finding rate i show that job creation in the model is influenced by wages in new matches i summarize microeconometric evidence and find that wages in new matches are volatile and consistent with the model s key predictions therefore explanations of the unemployment volatility puzzle have to preserve the cyclical volatility of wages i discuss a modification of the model based on fixed matching costs that can increase cyclical unemployment volatility and is consistent with wage flexibility in new matches

rational expectations business cycles in search equilibrium we examine the rational expectations equilibrium paths of the model of search and barter in diamond s aggregate demand management in search equilibrium for some initial positions there are two equilibrium paths converging to different steady states with the high activity path pareto dominating the low activity path with some parameters there is also a continuum of equilibrium paths converging to another steady state moreover there can be cycles that are equilibrium paths even though the environment is stationary

confidence crashes and animal spirits this article is an attempt to reformulate what i take to be two key insights from keyness general theory keynes 1936 the first is that there is something profoundly different about the labour market from most other markets in the economy the second is that the beliefs of participants in the asset markets have an independent influence on economic activity in the language of modern dynamic general equilibrium theory we would say that there is a continuum of labour market equilibria and that beliefs about the value of the stock market select an equilibrium the general theory contains many ideas some of which are internally inconsistent and keynes did not try to reconcile his theory with walrasian economics that task was carried out by a group of interpreters including hansen 1936 and hicks 1937 the current dominant paradigm new keynesian economics originated with the third edition of samuelson s 1955 undergraduate textbook in which he introduced the idea of the neoclassical synthesis according to this doctrine the economy is keynesian in the short run but classical in the long run the short run is defined as the period over which not all prices have had time to adjust to their walrasian levels this article introduces a different interpretation of the key ideas from the general theory 1 although my work is inspired by keynesian economics this article is not about the history of thought i offer a way of formulating the idea that market economies are not inherently self stabilising without assuming that prices or wages are prevented from adjusting to their equilibrium levels by some kind of friction instead i claim that high persistent unemployment is a potentially permanent feature of a market economy in a steady state equilibrium

aggressive tax avoidance a conundrum for stakeholders governments and morality this is the conundrum that gives rise to the issue of tax avoidance although governments always seem to lack sufficient funds to support the needs of society tax codes are often written that offer a way out of paying taxes for some but not all constituents the ways out are referred to as loopholes that allow taxpayers to avoid taxes this paper first defines the basic terms of tax avoidance and tax evasion and then offers an ethical review of the morality of aggressive tax avoidance aggressive tax avoidance is then addressed in relationship a corporate entity s tone at the top the conclusion is drawn that use of the letter of the law to avoid payment of taxes sorely needed by governments for the good faith provision of public goods and services is ethically unacceptable several suggestions for change are provided including a new financial statement disclosure and the possibility of a published corporate ethics report

firm dynamics and pricing under customer capital accumulation abstract in a search model of firm dynamics customer accumulation is shown to affect the lifecycle of firms and the dynamics of markups in response to aggregate demand shocks in the model sellers of different sizes and productivities post dynamic pricing contracts to strike a balance between attracting new customers and exploiting pre existing ones calibrated using establishment level and micro pricing data from the u s retail sector the model provides a quantitatively good fit to the lifecycle and cross sectional properties of retail establishments further the model predicts that markups are procyclical to aggregate demand shocks with a larger contribution by small sellers

the q s s pricing rule we introduce menu costs in the search theoretic model of imperfect competition of burdett and judd when menu costs are not too large the equilibrium is such that sellers follow a q s s pricing rule according to the rule a seller lets inflation erode the real value of its nominal price until it reaches some point s then the seller pays the menu cost and resets the real value of its nominal price to a point randomly drawn from a distribution with support s q where s s q a q s s equilibrium differs with respect to a standard s s equilibrium 1 in a q s s equilibrium sellers sometimes keep their nominal price constant to avoid paying the menu cost other times because they are indifferent to changes in the real value of their price an exploratory calibration reveals that menu costs account less than half of the observed duration of nominal prices 2 in a q s s equilibrium higher inflation leads to higher real prices as sellers pass onto buyers the cost of more frequent price adjustments and to lower welfare

multiple expectational equilibria under monopolistic competition this paper shows that a monopolistically competitive economy with real investment can have multiple rational expectations equilibria one is associated with entrepreneurs optimistic expectations about future demand another with entrepreneurs pessimism it also shows that an optimistic expectational equilibrium pareto dominates a pessimistic equilibrium an investment subsidy can be beneficial both by reducing the original underinvestment distortion and by changing firms expectations from pessimistic to optimistic the most important assumption is increasing returns to scale and monopolistic competition makes increasing returns consistent with each producer s optimization

government contracts and contractor behavior the u s government embraces the concepts of privatization and market competition but the realm of contracting shows that it has not always been able to put its principles into practice although the contracting system is supposed to be open and competitive in recent years the government has often awarded contracts with little or no competitive bidding has chosen to award mostly cost plus type contracts that force the government to assume more of the risk and lacked efficiency in monitoring and overseeing private contractors while the number and value of contracts have increased the workforce to oversee these contracts has been reduced preventing the government from adequately enforcing compliance with the contractors and the government has not made use of past performance evaluations in its contracting system private contractors that do business with the u s government are for the most part well established firms with ample resources and inside contacts many contracts are still being awarded on preferential treatment and to the larger and well established contractors

a new suggestion for simplifying the theory of money we propose a new search theoretic model of monetary exchange with indivisible assets based on price posting instead of bargaining and incorporating noisy search this yields some familiar results plus a lot more the model admits multiple steady states due to the self referential nature of liquidity it admits cyclic chaotic and stochastic equilibria and compared to bargaining versions the dynamics are more general and have better microfoundations it generates price dispersion with interesting efficiency implications plus sticky prices and rational inattention parametric examples yield closed form solutions based on these results we suggest this should become a benchmark model in monetary economics

were there regime switches in u s monetary policy working paper 2004 14 june 2004 abstract a multivariate model identifying monetary policy and allowing for simultaneity and regime switching in coefficients and variances is confronted with u s data since 1959 the best fit is with a model that allows time variation in structural disturbance variances only among models that also allow for changes in equation coefficients the best fit is for a model that allows coefficients to change only in the monetary policy rule that model allows switching among three main regimes and one rarely and briefly occurring regime the three main regimes correspond roughly to periods when most observers believe that monetary policy actually differed and the differences in policy behavior are substantively interesting though statistically ill determined the estimates imply monetary targeting was central in the early 80s but was also important sporadically in the 70s the changes in regime were essential neither to the rise in inflation in the 70s nor to its decline in the 80s jel classification e52 e47 c53 key words counterfactuals lucas critique policy rule monetary targeting simultaneity volatility model comparison i the debate over monetary policy change in an influential paper clarida gali and gertler 2000 cgg presented evidence that us monetary policy changed between the 1970 s and the 1980 s indeed that in the 70 s it was drastically worse they found that the policy rule apparently followed in the 70 s was one that when embedded in most stochastic general equilibrium models would imply non uniqueness of the equilibrium and hence vulnerability of the economy to sunspot fluctuations of arbitrarily large size their estimated policy rule for the later period on the other hand eliminated this indeterminacy these results are a possible explanation of the volatile and rising inflation of the 70 s and of its subsequent decline the cgg analysis has two important weaknesses one is that it fails to account for stochastic volatility us macroeconomic variables and particularly the federal funds rate have gone through periods of tranquility and of agitation with forecast error variances varying greatly from period to period ignoring such variation does not lead to inconsistent estimates of model parameters when the forecasting equations themselves are constant but it strongly biases toward a finding of changed parameters tests of the stability of the forecasting equations the other weakness is that the cgg analysis rests on powerful and implausible identifying assumptions they require that we accept that the response of the monetary authority to expected future inflation and output does not depend on the recent history of inflation money growth or output it is hard to understand why this should be so especially in the 70 s when monetarism was a prominent theme in policy debates congress was requiring reports from the fed of projected time paths of monetary aggregates and financial markets were reacting sensitively to weekly money supply numbers the requirement for existence and uniqueness of equilibrium in dynamic models is that the monetary policy rule show a more than unit response of interest rates to the sum of the logs of all nominal variables that appear on the right hand side of the reaction function if we force a particular measure of expected future inflation to proxy for all the nominal variables that actually appear independently in the reaction function we are bound to get distorted conclusions on the one hand because expected future inflation will be a noisy measure of the full set of nominal influences on policy we might get downward bias in our estimates from the usual errorsin variables effect on the other hand to the extent that expected future inflation like most expected future values shows less variation than current nominal variables we could find a mistaken scaling up of coefficients

sticky prices and costly credit we develop a theory of money and credit as competing payment instruments then put it to work in applications agents use cash and credit because the former latter is subject to the inflation tax transaction costs frictions that make the choice of payment method interesting also imply equilibrium price dispersion we derive closed form solutions for money demand and show how to simultaneously account for the price change facts cash credit shares in micro data and money interest correlations in macro data the effects of inflation on welfare price dispersion and markups are discussed as are nonstationary equilibria with dynamics in the price distribution

the stock market crash of 2008 caused the great recession theory and evidence abstract this paper argues that the stock market crash of 2008 triggered by a collapse in house prices caused the great recession the paper has three parts first it provides evidence of a high correlation between the value of the stock market and the unemployment rate in u s data since 1929 second it compares a new model of the economy developed in recent papers and books by farmer with a classical model and with a textbook keynesian approach third it provides evidence that fiscal stimulus will not permanently restore full employment in farmer s model as in the keynesian model employment is demand determined but aggregate demand depends on wealth not on income

dynamic coordination and the optimal stimulus policies this article studies stimulus policies in a simple macroeconomic model featuring a dynamic coordination problem that arises from demand externalities and fixed costs of investment in times of low economic activity firms face low demand and hence have lower incentives for investing which reinforces their low demand expectations in a benchmark case with no shocks the economy might get trapped in a low output regime and a social planner would be particularly keen to incentivise investment at times of low economic activity however this result vanishes once shocks are considered

the long run consumption effects of earnings shocks although prior studies of job displacement and disability have measured the impact of these shocks in terms of lost earnings no previous research has linked these permanent earnings shocks to the

government procurement and financial statement certification evidence from private firms in emerging economies in this paper we examine the monitoring role of government customers in emerging markets a setting where public procurement is significant but the procurement institutions are weak in these countries financial statement certifications could be an important mechanism for a private firm to facilitate contracting with governments employing a sample of private firms across 98 emerging economies we first document in depth private firm audit regulations for each country we find that firms are more likely to have financial statements certified by an external auditor when they have government contracts we further find that the association is less pronounced when governments have weaker monitoring incentives when suppliers are subject to monitoring from tax authorities or creditors when government contracting officials receive bribes and when government spending is less transparent we corroborate our inferences using the staggered adoption of an e procurement system to infer changes in governments monitoring incentives and several other robustness checks

coming home and not moving in examining reshoring firms subnational location choices in the united states the relation between firm characteristics i e size and domestic location choice i e home state versus other of reshoring firms contingent on place i e labour cost innovation intensity

screening and adverse selection in frictional markets we develop a tractable framework for analyzing adverse selection economies with imperfect competition in our environment uninformed buyers offer a general menu of screening contracts to privately informed sellers some sellers receive offers from multiple buyers while others receive offers from only one buyer as in burdett and judd 1983 this specification allows us to smoothly vary the degree of competition nesting monopsony and perfect competition a la rothschild and stiglitz 1976 as special cases we show that the unique symmetric mixed strategy equilibrium exhibits a strict rank preserving property in that different types of sellers have an identical ranking over the various menus offered in equilibrium these menus can be all separating all pooling or a mixture of both depending on the distribution of types and the degree of competition in the market this calls into question the practice of using the incidence of separating contracts as evidence of adverse selection without controlling for market structure we examine the relationship between exante welfare and the degree of competition and show that in some cases an interior level of frictions maximizes welfare while in other cases competition is unambiguously bad for welfare finally we study the effects of various policy interventions such as disclosure and non discrimination requirements and show that our model generates new and perhaps counter intuitive insights

ethics in tax practice a study of the effect of practitioner firm size while much of the empirical accounting literature suggests that if differences do exist big four employees are more ethical than non big four employees this trend has not been evident in the recent media coverage of big four tax practitioners acting for multinationals accused of aggressive tax avoidance behaviour however there has been little exploration in the literature to date specifically of the relationship between firm size and ethics in tax practice we aim here to address this gap initially exploring tax practitioners perceptions of the impact of firm size on ethics in tax practice using interview data in order to identify the salient issues involved we then proceed to assess quantitatively whether employer firm size has an impact on the ethical reasoning of tax practitioners using a tax context specific adaptation of a well known and validated psychometric instrument the defining issues test

real business cycles and the animal spirits hypothesis abstract we calibrate a quantitative equilibrium macroeconomic model with an aggregate technology that is subject to increasing returns and show that this model may display fluctuations at business cycle frequencies even when there are no shocks to the fundamentals of the economy these fluctuations are due to the self fulfilling beliefs of investors which we call animal spirits we compare the impulse response functions predicted by our model and by two other more standard models with a four variable vector autoregression on u s data our animal spirits economy is the most successful of the three at matching broad features of the dynamic responses in the data journal of economic literature classification numbers e00 e3 e32

matching with phantoms searching for partners involves informational persistence that reduces future traders matching probability in this article traders who are no longer available but who left tracks on the market are called phantoms we examine a dynamic matching market in which phantoms are a by product of search activity no coordination frictions are assumed and non phantom traders may lose time trying to match with phantoms the resulting aggregate matching technology features increasing returns to scale in the short run but has constant returns to scale in the long run we embed a generalized version of this matching function in the canonical continuous time equilibrium search unemployment model long run constant returns to scale imply there is a unique steady state whereas short run increasing returns generate excess volatility in the short run and endogenous fluctuations based on self fulfilling prophecies

is there news in the prime rate using intraday data we find that bank announcements of changes in the prime rate have significant effects on dow jones stock price indexes and yields in the treasury bill futures market we find comparable effects using daily data for indexes of share prices of banks and financial firms as well as interest rates on various maturities of government securities our evidence is consistent with the view that banks have a comparative advantage in processing private information gained through bank borrower relations and the regulatory supervision process

a dynamic equilibrium model of search production and exchange we study a general equilibrium model where agents search for production and trading opportunities that generalizes the existing literature by considering a large number of differentiated commodities and agents with idiosyncratic tastes thus agents must choose nontrivial exchange as well as production strategies we consider decreasing constant and increasing returns to scale in the matching technology and characterize the circumstances under which there exist multiple steady state equilibria or multiple dynamic equilibria for given initial conditions we also characterize the existence of dynamic equilibria that are limit cycles equilibria are not generally optimal and when multiple equilibria coexist they may be ranked we analyze comparative statics and find that certain intuitive results do not necessarily hold without restrictions on the stochastic structure

effect of the number of banking relationships on credit availability evidence from panel data of spanish small firms this paper investigates how the choice between single or multiple banking relationships affects credit availability for a complete panel of small and medium sized spanish firms the results seem to indicate the existence of rationing since a substitution relation has been found between trade and bank credit we also analyse the relationship between the level of indebtedness and the interest rate for each group of firms the results show that those smes that work with fewer financial intermediaries obtain fewer funds for the same increase in the interest rate which indicates that these companies have more financial restraints

persistence and volatility of beveridge cycles this paper aims to explain the magnitude and cyclical behavior of the fluctuations in unemployment and vacancies adding demand externalities to an otherwise standard search and matching model reduces the need for exogenous shocks in explaining these fluctuations under plausible parameter values the equilibrium dynamics include a stable limit cycle that resembles the empirically observed counterclockwise cycles around the beveridge curve quantitatively these endogenous beveridge cycles can explain half of the volatility and almost all persistence of unemployment without any exogenous forces avoiding the amplification and propagation problems of the standard model