infrastructure investment the cost of capital and regulation an assessment the paper considers the role of infrastructure in improving economic performance and its compar ative neglect relative to traditional macroeconomic and microeconomic policies it explains why infrastructure matters why britain s infrastructure performance has been poor and summarizes the scale of the challenge for the coming decade privatization liberalization and competition have focused on monopoly market failure and private incentives but they have neglected the time inconsistency problem which confronts investors in networks with high fixed and sunk costs the failure to commit which has characterized british approaches to infrastructure has been partially addressed through the creation of regulated asset bases rabs backed up by the duty on regulators to ensure that functions can be financed the paper considers how the rabs can be developed to provide credible long term contracts over a wide range of activities and how the financial regu latory regime can complement this commitment notably through the split cost of capital and the indexation of the cost of debt approaches the paper concludes by setting out the building blocks of a credible regulatory framework for infrastructure together with the impacts on reducing the cost of capital the role of the state in reinforcing this commitment and the associated institutions are also set out

rural nonfarm employment and incomes in latin america overview and policy implications abstract rural nonfarm employment rnfe and incomes rnfi are crucial to latin american rural households the 11 rural household income studies in this volume reviewed in this paper use 1990s data and show that rnfi averages 40 of rural incomes rnfi and rnfe have grown quickly over the past three decades the review of evidence provided some surprising departures from traditional images of nonfarm activities of latin american rural households in terms of shares of rural incomes 1 nonfarm wage incomes exceed self employment incomes 2 rnfi far exceeds farm wage incomes 3 local rnfi far exceeds migration incomes 4 service sector rnfi far exceeds manufactures rnfi these findings suggest the need for more development program attention to wage employment in the service sector versus the traditional focus on small enterprise manufactures moreover poor households and zones tend to have higher shares in their incomes but lower absolute levels of rnfi as compared to richer households and zones the rnfe of the poor tend to be the low paid nonfarm equivalent of semi subsistence farming raising the capacity of the poor to participate in the better paid types of rnfe is crucial via employment skills training education infrastructure credit finally rnfe has grown fastest and been most poverty alleviating where there are dynamic growth motors in particular in the agricultural sector but also in tourism links to urban areas mining and forestry this means that developing rnf jobs cannot be done at the expense of programs promoting agricultural development

state lotteries and consumer behavior abstract this paper investigates two central issues regarding state lotteries first analyses of multiple sources of micro level data demonstrate that household lottery spending is financed primarily by a reduction in non gambling expenditures not by a reduction in expenditures on other forms of gambling the introduction of a state lottery is associated with an average decline of 46 per month or 2 4 percent in household non gambling expenditures low income households reduce non gambling household expenditures by 2 5 percent on average 3 1 percent when the state lottery includes instant games these households experience statistically significant declines in expenditures on food and on rent mortgage and other bills second consumer demand for lottery products responds positively to the expected value of the gamble controlling for other statistical moments and product characteristics including the nominal top prize amount this finding is consistent with informed choice among consumers of lottery products although other forms of irrational or misinformed choice cannot be ruled out

assessing the impact of crop diversification on farm poverty in india summary crop diversification into high value crops hvcs can be a strategy to improve livelihood outcomes for farmers using data from a nationally representative survey we establish that households diversifying toward hvcs are less likely to be poor the biggest impact being for smallholders furthermore using continuous treatment matching we establish the relationship between degree of diversification share of area dedicated to hvc and poverty growers of hvcs need to allocate at least 50 area to hvcs to escape poverty effect of diversification on poverty is in general positive but it withers after a threshold probably because of constraints i e capital on smaller farms and labor on larger ones

the who and why of lottery empirical highlights from the seminal economic literature lotteries operate today in many countries around the world this type of gambling is usually run by governments and is sometimes described as regressive lottery is an unfair bet so explaining the purchase of lottery tickets by risk averse consumers has been a challenge for economic theory lotteries can be analysed from either of two economic perspectives as a source of public revenue or as a consumer commodity in this paper the state of economic research on lotteries is reviewed focusing on its main empirical findings

do people put their money where their votes are the case of lottery tickets in political markets people vote with their ballots whereas in economic markets they vote with their dollars in this paper we seek to determine how voting and purchasing behavior are interrelated when voters must first approve the sale of a good i e establish a legal market before purchases can be made this question is particularly interesting because it focuses on a fundamental assumption underlying basic voting models that there is a link running from economic characteristics to political behavior and presumably back to economic decisions using voting data from a kansas constitutional referendum to establish a state owned and operated lottery and subsequent sales data from the lottery we investigate whether the determinants of voting and purchasing behavior are the same or at least in some sense consistent the extent to which voting preferences reflect purchasing preferences and whether voter preferences represent those of nonvoters

nonfarm diversification poverty economic mobility and income inequality a case study in village india this paper assembles data at the all india level and for the village of palanpur uttar pradesh to document the growing importance and influence of the non farm sector in the rural economy between the early 1980s and late 2000s the suggestion from the combined national sample survey and palanpur data is of a slow process of non farm diversification whose distributional incidence on the margin is increasingly pro poor the village level analysis documents that the non farm sector is not only increasing incomes and reducing poverty but appears as well to be breaking down long standing barriers to mobility among the poorest segments of rural society efforts by the government of india to accelerate the process of diversification could thus yield significant returns in terms of declining poverty and increased income mobility the evidence from palanpur also shows however that at the village level a significant increase in income inequality has accompanied diversification away from the farm a growing literature argues that such a rise in inequality could affect the fabric of village society the way in which village institutions function and evolve and the scope for collective action at the village level failure to keep such inequalities in check could thus undermine the pro poor impacts from the process of structural transformation currently underway in rural india

a lottery within a lottery an examination of the distribution of lottery funds in england the uk national lottery has been in operation since 1994 an examination of the regional distribution of awards per head of population suggests marked spatial disparities with london doing particularly well and scotland northern ireland wales and the north east faring much better than other regions such disparities also exist at english local authority level with london and some major provincial centres doing much better than more rural authorities such inequalities may give grounds for concern given that they appear to replicate those for other types of government spending the results of an empirical model designed to explain the spatial distribution of awards suggest that in addition to a london effect levels of deprivation have a positive impact another important explanatory variable which has a positive impact on lottery funding is the qualifications of residents which might plausibly reflect the quality of lottery bids received from an area however once these factors are taken account of

nonfarm income diversification and household livelihood strategies in rural africa concepts dynamics and policy implications abstract asset activity and income diversification lie at the heart of livelihood strategies in rural africa this paper introduces a special issue on the topic income diversification and livelihoods in rural africa cause and consequence of change we concentrate on core conceptual issues that bedevil the literature on rural income diversification and the policy implications of the empirical evidence presented in this special issue

trading as gambling this paper offers evidence from three different samples consistent with investors substituting between playing the lottery and gambling in financial markets in the united states increases in the jackpots of the multistate lotteries powerball and mega millions are associated with significant reductions in small trade participation in the stock market california based discount brokerage clients and german discount brokerage clients are significantly less likely to trade during weeks with larger lottery prizes in the california and german lotteries respectively variation in lottery prizes affects speculative trading in more lottery like securities such as individual stocks and options but not trading in bonds and mutual funds trading that is likely associated with long term savings motives such as trading in retirement accounts does not respond to lottery jackpots either the negative relation between trading activity and jackpots is stronger for individuals who are more likely to play the lottery this paper was accepted by brad barber finance

nationalization vs regulation of monopolies abstract this paper compares the effects of government ownership and regulation under private ownership on the production decisions of a monopoly firm it analyzes an optimal mechanism design problem in which the owners of the firm either the government or shareholders contract with a manager who has private information about the firm s cost function and takes an unobservable action that affects the firm s costs the model predicts that the privately owned regulated firm will use relatively more capital and the publicly owned firm will use relatively more labor than the second best efficient solution to the private information problem

social capital and household welfare in south africa 1993 98 the aim in this study is to determine the nature of the causal relationship if any between social capital as measured by household membership in formal and informal groups and household welfare in south africa using a recently collected panel data set in south africa s largest province we estimate per capita expenditure functions including measures of social capital after controlling for fixed effects and simultaneity we find social capital has no effect in 1993 but a positive and significant effect in 1998

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economic shocks and lottery sales an examination of maine state lottery sales most u s states earn significant amount of revenues from lottery sales however they are also criticized for promoting the lotteries because they have been seen as taking advantage of poor popula

privatization liberalization wages and employment theory and evidence for the uk most agency based privatization models are of the owner manager relation and ignore the labour market yet in the 1980s there were profound changes in public sector and privatized firms to wages and employment we develop a bargaining model of the manager workforce relation that explains employment and wages when firms are privatized government objectives become more commercial and markets are liberalised using data on 14 uk companies 1972 1988 that were publicly owned in 1972 we find a employment fell following the change to more commercial objectives b wages were only slightly affected by this but fell if the firm lost market power

using evidence of household income diversification to inform study of the rural nonfarm labor market in africa abstract the labor market literature in developing countries has seldom drawn on the studies of rural household income diversification this paper draws on such studies to inform future study of the rural nonfarm labor market in africa the review of evidence provides some surprising departures from traditional images of nonfarm activities of rural households among the most striking is the dominant importance in the majority of case study areas of nonfarm wage labor as compared to self employment of nonfarm sector earnings as compared to farm sector wage earnings and of local nonfarm earnings as compared to migration earnings the most worrying finding was the poor distribution of nonfarm earnings in rural areas despite the importance of these earnings to food security and farm investments this poor distribution implies significant entry barriers and market segmentation it is probable that this will lead over time to an increasingly skewed distribution of land and other assets in rural africa

the evolution of infrastructure and utility ownership and its implications the paper documents the significant changes of ownership since the infrastructure utilities were privatized and in particular the shifts from the initial focus on dispersed retail share ownership through takeovers to more concentrated ownership and the emergence of private equity and infrastructure funds in the process there has been substantial financial engineering and balance sheets have been geared up towards exhaustion with major implications for financing future investment increased gearing has on the one hand introduced the discipline of debt upon management which had engaged in substantive diversification and on the other provided an arbitrage between the weighted average cost of capital used to calculate the allowed return and the lower marginal cost of debt the paper shows how regulation has determined the allocation of risk and facilitated the observed changes in ownership and financial structures three solutions to the exhausted balance sheets are considered to finance future investment rate of return regulation the split cost of capital and a collapse back into not for dividend mutual or state ownership the default outcome already witnessed in the welsh water and network rail cases is the latter case which is inferior to the second option copyright 2009 oxford university press

celebrations as social investments festival expenditures unit price variation and social status in rural india festival expenditures amount to over 15 per cent of a household s annual expenditures in rural india yet they have never been studied by economists this article uses both qualitative and quantitative data from a case study of three south indian villages to show that festivals are important public goods in the village but neither a pure entertainment motive nor an altruistic desire to contribute to a public event seems to explain their size households which spend money on festivals everything else held equal are able however to generate tangible rewards lower prices on food higher social status and more invitations to meals from other families this indicates that active participation in festivals generates private economic and social returns which help resolve a potential free rider problem the evidence is consistent with the notion that festivals serve as mechanisms by which communities build social networks

on the optimal design of lotteries is globally concave since thearguments against the plausibility of a convex utility function advanced in the previous sectionin relation to eu theory apply with equal force to the rdeu model by contrast as is shownbelow these arguments do not apply to risk seeking behavior associated with the possibility that

probability of purchase amount of purchase and the demographic incidence of the lottery tax abstract when consumers indifference curves are discontinuous at zero perhaps due to stigma or fixed costs of purchase then factors influencing the amount purchased will have a different effect on the probability of purchase estimation of the demand for a commodity like lottery tickets requires a procedure that accounts for this tobit estimation commonly used in this literature does not allow for this generalization we investigate individual lottery ticket purchases using data from a survey of households our results are quite disparate from earlier studies regarding the effects of many demographic variables on probability of play level of play and expected lottery ticket purchases and imply a different demographic incidence of the lottery tax than previous studies suggest

semiparametric estimation of selection models some empirical results among the central theoretical developments in the econometric analysis of nonexperimental microeconomic data has been the analysis of selectivity bias following the work of james heckman 1974 statistical techniques were developed in the 1970s to consistently estimate the parameters of these models one potential drawback to the application of these techniques is their sensitivity to the assumed parametric distribution of the unobservable error terms in the model in recent years a number of estimation methods for selection models have been developed which do not impose parametric forms on error distributions these methods are termed semiparametric since only part of the model of interest the regression function is parametrically specified while the statistical theory of these semiparametric estimators has received much attention practical applications of the methods are lacking an exception being the paper by joel horowitz and george neumann 1987 in this paper we use semiparametric methods to reanalyze data on the labor supply of married women first studied by thomas mroz 1987 using parametric methods the object of this reanalysis is to determine whether mroz s results are sensitive to his parametric assumptions

rural livelihood diversification in sub saharan africa a literature review abstractthis article provides a comprehensive review of the literature on the nature and evolution of rural livelihood diversification in sub saharan africa and the situation regarding smallholders it reveals mixed findings about the causes and consequences of livelihood diversification on rural smallholders adopting this strategy a lot of evidence from the literature suggests that it is relatively better off smallholders with sufficient assets who achieve successful livelihood diversification mainly by exploiting opportunities and synergies between farm and nonfarm activities because of asset constraints increase in incomes and wealth based on livelihood diversification has not yet benefitted the large majority of smallholders

awarding monopoly franchises the authors analyze how to award a monopoly franchise when the objective is to maximize expected consumers surplus net of transfer payments to the producer potential producers initially possess independent private information about uncertain production costs only the chosen producer subsequently observes realized production costs after awarding the franchise to the producer with the lowest expected costs prices are optimally set above realized marginal cost these ex post distortions foster more competitive bidding ex ante the distortions for any bid cost pair are invariant to the number of bidders n though expected distortions and profits decline with n copyright 1987 by american economic association

productive efficiency in public and private firms abstract this paper compares the degree of x inefficiency which emerges as a consequence of the imposition of the optimal incentive contracts in public and private firms using a straightforward principal agent model with two possible states of the world it establishes the rather surprising result that in the good state of the world public ownership always results in a higher degree of productive efficiency

an economic model of welfare stigma perhaps the most basic assumption of the economic theory of consumer demand is that more is better than less virtually all of the major propositions of consumer theory can in a certain sense be derived from the assumption that goods are good interestingly however this tenet seems to be violated by the behavior of many individuals in the low income population for many turn out to be eligible for a positive welfare benefit but do not in fact join the welfare rolls for example it has been estimated that in 1970 only about 69 percent of the families eligible for afdc aid to families with dependent children participated in the program see richard michel 1980 the corresponding percentage for afdc u the program for which families with an unemployed male are eligible was only 43 percent and the participation rate in the food stamp program was only 38 percent see maurice mcdonald 1977 this phenomenon has puzzled many investigators because such individuals do not locate on the boundaries of their budget sets consequently most investigators ignore the problem when studying the effects of welfare programs on behavior in this paper this seemingly irrational rejection of an increase in income is modeled as resulting from welfare stigma that is from disutility arising from participation in a welfare program per se 1 the existence of stigma has been amply documented in the sociological literature patrick horan and patricia austin 1974 lee rainwater 1979 where interviews of recipients have often uncovered feelings of lack of self respect and negative self characterizations from participation in welfare nevertheless this phenomenon has not been modeled and many questions consequently remain when is the disutility of participation strong enough to prevent participation shouldn t we expect individuals to weigh the disutility of participation against the potential benefit in their decisions what is the elasticity of participation with respect to the potential benefit also in a slightly different vein how are the work disincentives of welfare affected by stigma these questions have been given scant attention by economists yet they are crucial for our ability to predict the impact of various welfare programs on the lowincome population here these questions are addressed by modeling nonparticipation as a utility maximizing decision the model is developed and estimated for the afdc program 2 the model posits an individual utility function containing not just disposable income but

designing a private industry government auctions with endogenous market structure abstract this paper considers government mechanisms for auctioning production rights in which both the winners and the market structure doupoly dual sourcing monopoly sole sourcing or government owned production are a function of the bids in designing the optimal mechanism the government considers the tradeoffs among consumer surplus producer surplus and revenue under incomplete information doupoly is implemented less frequently and government production more frequently than under complete information when bidders are symmetric the optimal mechanism can be implemented as a modified second price auction applications to privatization deregulation and defense procurement are discussed

the welfare effects of lotto evidence from the uk abstract this paper estimates the demand for lottery tickets using pooled cross section data that contain individual incomes and extensive information about characteristics one of the cross sections corresponded to a draw which was a double rollover the jackpot was enhanced by adding the two previous draws jackpots which had not been won together these datasets provide sufficient observations facing different prices to allow us to estimate the price elasticity as well as the income elasticity of demand we estimate tobit and other specifications and use the estimates to evaluate the welfare effects arising from the introduction of the lottery

behavior of the firm under regulatory constraint a recent article by akira takayama discusses an earlier paper by harvey averch and leland l johnson on fair rate of return regulation of public utilities although takayama p 255 agrees with averch and johnson s general conclusions that a firm will tend to increase its investment with the introduction of an active constraint on its rate of return he criticizes the a j argument as being confusing ambiguous and in error takayama then attempts a clarification and presents a new formulation which leads to the a j result quoted above this comment will discuss several of takayama s criticisms in addition to showing that the so called a j effect cannot be derived from the basic assumptions made by both averch and johnson and takayama 1 we will show that the very assumptions used to prove the a j effect by defining the region of x require an assumption that the a j effect exists in the first place

promotional programmes and consumer purchasing decisions pecan demand models a generalized heckman model of purchase decisions is estimated incorporating perceived consumer quality attributes ease of purchase and familiarity with marketing outlets as factors influencing pecan purchases economic implications for evaluating consumer purchase decisions and the design of commodity promotion programmes for the pecan industry are addressed key marketing variables such as the variety of uses for nut products the number of outlets used to purchase pecans and consumer perceptions of positive quality features of pecans are significant in promoting purchases applications of a trade off analysis examine key variables considered by the pecan industry in developing promotional programmes both to stabilize pecan purchases and to maintain the probability of pecan purchases

the pitfalls of water privatization failure and reform in malaysia summary this paper examines why private participation in infrastructure ppi in water continues to be promoted despite poor results in developing countries it argues that the main characteristics of infrastructure discourage private investment and necessitate state subsidies which dilute private risks and incentives and facilitate rent seeking as a result ppi is characterized by public financing selective private investments and inconclusive efficiency gains this is reflected globally and in malaysia where ppi continues to be promoted because it provides captive rents the political factors that drive ppi invariably compromise institutional solutions as malaysia s water sector reforms illustrate

a theory of debt and equity diversity of securities and manager shareholder congruence this paper shows how the optimal financial structure of a firm complements incentive schemes to discipline managers and how the securities return streams determine the claim holders incentives to intervene in management the theory rationalizes 1 the multipucity of securities 2 the observed correlation between return streams and control rights of securities and 3 the partial congruence between managerial and equity holder preferences over policy choices and monetary rewards as well as the low level of interference of equity in management the theory also offers new prospects for a reappraisal of the earlier corporate finance literature

who plays the numbers games in the middle of the day we analyse the increase in sales of pick 3 and pick 4 daily numbers lottery games and other ohio lottery games after ohio introduced midday drawings for the pick 3 and pick 4 games in august 1999 the midday drawings increased pick 3 sales by 5 pick 4 sales by 12 and total lottery sales by 2 based on our analysis of a 36 month panel dataset of ohio lottery sales by zip code midday drawings raise more revenue from the strongly regressive daily numbers games however the introduction of midday drawings does not change the negative income elasticities of demand for numbers games in an economically meaningful manner

syndication institutionalization and lottery play1 why do people play the lottery since lottery tickets are assets with negative expected return lottery play challenges the basic assumptions of economic theory this article approaches lottery play from a networks perspective and focuses on syndicate play a comparison of the development of lottery markets in germany austria spain and portugal from the 17th century onward shows that lottery play declined with rising incomes except in countries in which syndicate play diffused widely namely spain and to a lesser extent portugal although syndicating originated among the relatively poor as a response to an increase in lottery prices it persisted even when individual play became affordable this article contends that syndicating endured because of an institutionalization process by which lottery tickets have transformed from purely economic assets into symbolic carriers of interpersonal ties that convey membership and status position in relevant social networks

the political economy of benefits and costs a neoclassical approach to distributive politics this essay offers a rational political explanation for the notorious inefficiency of pork barrel projects with an optimization model of legislative behavior and legislative institutions the model emphasizes the economically arbitrary from a welfare point of view importance of the geographic incidence of benefits and costs owing to the geographic basis for political representation we explore the implications of a legislator s objective function and derive conditions under which a representative legislature will select an omnibus of projects each of which exceeds the efficient scale

the sloping land conversion program in china effect on the livelihood diversification of rural households summary through addressing the motivations behind rural households livelihood diversification this paper examines the effect of the sloping land conversion program slcp on livelihood diversification using a longitudinal household survey data set spanning the overall implementation of the slcp our results show that the slcp works as a valid external policy intervention to increase rural livelihood diversification in addition the findings demonstrate that the implementation of the slcp has had heterogeneous effects on livelihood diversification across different rural income groups the lower income group was more affected by the program in terms of income diversification

capital vintage time trends and technical change in the electric power industry beginning with tinbergen in 1942 economists have employed a time trend in cost or production functions to represent the rate at which new technology is introduced into the production unit in sufficiently flexible models of the production process the time trend may be used to obtain estimates of the rate as well as direction of technical change the use of the time trend is generally defended on pragmatic grounds as no theoretical justification exists for assuming that new technology is introduced at a steady rate that is independent of a firm s investment in r d education capital of a more recent vintage etc in recent years alternatives to the traditional time trend have been sought to represent the rate at which new technology is introduced research in this area has been concentrated in the telecommunications industry where the stock of r d or the percentage of calls completed by direct dialing or modern switching facilities have been employed as technological indices by nadiri and schankerman 32 denny et al 14 and christensen et al 7 the latter two studies indicate that explicit technological indices provide a better representation of the pace of innovation than the time trend this conclusion must remain tentative however as it is not possible to determine what is the true direction of technical change in these studies this shortcoming is overcome in a recent study by kopp and smith 24 who compare the performance of time trends and explicit technological indices in a study using pseudo data generated by process analysis models their results unambiguously support the use of technologically explicit indicators of technical change and indicate that the use of a time trend may not provide a consistent estimate of the direction of technical change this study does not however shed any light on the ability of a time trend to accurately reflect the rate of technical change the purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of alternative technological indices on the estimated rate and direction of technical change in the electric power industry the performance of a time trend is compared with that of a vintage index computed as the average age of a firm s steam generating capacity this latter index is consistent with the notion that new technology is embodied in newly constructed capital an assumption sup

markets market failures and development a central question in development economics is how can we account for differences in the levels of income and the rates of growth between the developed and less developed economies in the 1950s and 1960s there was a standard answer to this question the poor are just like the rich except they are poorer they have less human and nonhuman capital there was an immediate prescription for this diagnosis increase the resources of ldcs either by transferring capital to them either direct aid or education or by encouraging them to save more today these answers seem less convincing that they did two decades ago if the problem were primarily a shortage of physical capital the return to capital should be much higher in ldcs than in developed countries and the natural avarice of capitalists would lead to a flow of capital from the more developed to the less developed economies see howard pack 1984 and my 1988 paper if the problem were primarily a shortage of human capital then the educated in ldcs should receive a higher absolute as well as relative income than the educated in more developed economies how then can we account for high levels of unemployment among the educated and the migration of the educated from ldcs to more developed economies moreover the predictions of the standard neoclassical growth model of a convergence of growth rates in per capita income with permanent differences in per capita consumption being explained by differences in savings rates and reproduction rates do not seem to have been borne out these observations suggest that the ldcs differ from the developed countries in at least some other important respects and this view is corroborated by those studies which have looked at the productivity of similar plants operating in developed and less developed economies see pack 1984 1987 the difference can be attributed perhaps tautologically to differences in economic organization to how individuals factors of production interact and to the institutions which mediate those interactions among the most important of these institutions are markets it is by now well recognized that there are many instances of market failures in more developed economies see bruce greenwald and myself 1986 in some cases market failures may be ameliorated by nonmarket institutions if for instance capital markets do not function well perfectly if only because of costly and imperfect information nonmarket institutions internal capital markets within large conglomerates may develop market failure is more prevalent in ldcs and the nonmarket institutions that ameliorate its consequences are at least in many instances less successful in doing so the objective of this paper is to explore the causes and consequences of these market failures and the failure of private nonmarket solutions and to suggest possible roles for government intervention tdiscussants anne 0 krueger duke university stanley fischer world bank

forest based livelihoods strategies conditioned by market remoteness and forest proximity in jharkhand india summary the study uses a novel method to investigate the role of forest proximity market remoteness and caste in determining household income especially forest income in an underdeveloped region of india a high 50 proportion of total income is earned in cash forest products contribute substantially to total income with fuelwood as the most important forest product proximity to forest is associated with higher forest incomes as expected but remote villages do not have higher forest incomes or lower cash incomes than less remote villages higher off farm income is associated with better road access and higher income households generally 2014 published by elsevier ltd this is an open access article under the cc by nc sa license http creativecommons org licenses bync sa 3 0

privatization and efficiency from principals and agents to political economy ad i pavia abstract we survey the theoretical literature on privatization and efficiency by tracing its evolution from the applications of agency theory to recent contributions in the field of political economy the former extend the theory of regulation with incomplete information to address privatization issues comparing state owned enterprises with private regulated firms the benefits of privatization may derive either from the constraints it places on malevolent agents or from the impossibility of commitment by a benevolent government because of incomplete contracts contributions dealing with political economy issues separate privatization from restructuring decisions they either explore bargaining between managers and politicians or analyse the impact of privatization shaped by political preferences on efficiency the theoretical results regarding the relation between privatization and efficiency do not lead to any definitive conclusion privatization may increase productive efficiency when restructuring takes place whereas its effects on allocative efficiency still remain uncertain

using cost observation to regulate firms the paper emphasizes the use of accounting data in regulatory or procurement contracts when the supplier 1 has superior information about the cost of the project and 2 invests in cost reduction the main result states that under risk neutrality the supplier announces an expected cost and is given an incentive contract linear in cost overruns this optimal contract moves toward a fixed price contract as the announced cost decreases an investment choice is then introduced and the use of a rate of return regulation is studied

income strategies among rural households in mexico the role of off farm activities abstract off farm activities generate on average more than half of farm households incomes in the mexican ejido sector participation in these activities helps reduce poverty and contributes to greater equality in the distribution of income this paper analyzes the determinants of access to off farm sources of income across households we find that education plays a major role in accessing better remunerated nonagricultural employment adults of indigenous ethnic origin suffer from an educational lag and have less access to off farm nonagricultural employment than non indigenous adults at identical educational levels the regional availability of off farm employment strongly affects participation in addition women are differentially limited by distance to urban centers in their ability to gain off farm employment

statistical models for zero expenditures in household budgets household budget surveys are an important source of data on consumer s expenditure not just for individual consumers but also for estimating national aggregates however it is a widespread finding that for certain commodities most notably tobacco and alcohol the estimate from the household survey falls short of the known consumption total calculated with some confidence from data on production imports exports and excise duties for example in the british family expenditure survey with which we shall largely be concerned total tobacco expenditure was underestimated in 1976 by 21 percent see kemsley redpath and holmes 1980 p 51 much of this understatement together with that on alcohol is thought to occur because of the design of the survey which excludes many persons amongst whom consumption of such items is thought to be atypically high e g prisoners hoteliers and their residents merchant seamen even so the possibility remains that some of the understatement is due to various types of misreporting by households included in the survey in this paper we consider a model in which the standard tobit specification tobin 1958 is supplemented by the operation of a simple binary censor the tobit model is essentially a linear regression model in which non positive observations of the dependent variable are replaced by zero we take this specification as our starting point but add a second censoring process that randomly replaces a fraction of the observations generated by the tobit model bv zeroes the combined model can serve as a representation of several types of

welfare maximisation with endogenous average costs abstract in contrast to the earlier literature about industries mixing public and private ownership costs are not exogenous because firms choose capacity if capacity is increased the fixed costs increase but more can be produced at constant marginal costs it turns out that mixing private and public firms improves welfare if the deadweight loss of imperfect competition is significant all firms break even but welfare maximisation implies higher unit costs and lower profitability

public firms as regulatory instruments with cost uncertainty we re examine the regulatory role of a public firm in an environment of private but correlated information about irndustry costs we study three regimes of mixed market interaction involving both public and private firms a symmetric bayesian nash equilibrium an asymmetric bayesian equilibrium in which the public firm is able to commit to production before the private firms and a mechanism in which the regulator designs an incentive compatible schedule for the industry we find that a public firm plays an important strategic informational role which strengthens its role as a disciplinary regulatory instrument further

ict adoption and income diversification among rural households in china although the determinants of income diversification have been widely examined in the literature little is known about whether and how information and communication technology ict adoption affect

the social multiplier aggregate data is often used to make inferences about individual level behavior if there are social interactions in which one person s actions influence his neighbor s incentives or information then these inferences are inappropriate the presence of positive social interactions or strategic complementarities implies the existence of a social multiplier where aggregate relationships will overstate individual elasticities we present a brief model and then estimate the size of the social multiplier in three areas the impact of education on wages the impact of demographics on crime and group membership among dartmouth roommates in these contexts there is a significant social multiplier jel ho jo co

identification of endogenous social effects the reflection problem this paper examines the reflection problem that arises when a researcher observing the distribution of behaviour in a population tries to infer whether the average behaviour in some group influences the behaviour of the individuals that comprise the group it is found that inference is not possible unless the researcher has prior information specifying the compisition of reference groups if this information is available the prospects for inference depend critically on the population relationship between the variables defining reference groups and those directly affecting outcomes inference is difficult to implossible if these variables are functionally dependent or are statistically independent the prospects are better if the variables defining reference groups and those directly affecting outcomes are moderately related in the population

a generalized double hurdle model of swedish gambling expenditures this article estimates the relationship between demand for swedish gambling income and the other socioeconomic variables using empirical models of participation and gambling expenditure it also indirectly attempts to account for the effect of a recent recession on gambling behaviour by examining gambling behaviour when the economy was growing versus the period immediately after a major recession the aim of the article is to analyse the factors influencing gambling decisions this is done using the double hurdle method adjusted for the problems of heteroscedasticity and nonnormality using an approach that can handle extreme values and address skewness the empirical results ruled out tobit type models and normally distributed double hurdle models the pattern on income elasticities across income classes implies that implicit swedish gaming taxes are regressive income elasticities become smaller after the recession and the decision to participate changed with respect to the several of the demographic va

the effects of social networks on employment and inequality we develop a model where agents obtain information about job opportunities through an explicitly modeled network of social contacts we show that employment is positively correlated across time and agents moreover unemployment exhibits duration dependence the probability of obtaining a job decreases in the length of time that an agent has been unemployed finally we examine inequality between two groups if staying in the labor market is costly and one group starts with a worse employment status then that group s drop out rate will be higher and their employment prospects will be persistently below that of the other group

regulatory restructuring and incumbent price dynamics the case of u s local telephone markets prior to the telecommunications act of 1996 many u s states restructured their regulatory framework by replacing rate of return regulation with competition in both the local exchange service and local long distance markets and adopting price regulation price caps and price freezes using a panel data set of incumbent firm prices for three services i investigate whether price regulation and differences in entry conditions affect incumbent operators rate structures i find that competition has prompted a significant amount of rate rebalancing by reducing the amount of cross subsidization present in local telephone markets in addition the added flexibility of price cap regulation speeds the rate rebalance effects of competition

characterizing social networks and their effects on income diversification in rural kerala india summary income diversification continues to be a key strategy for poor rural households including those that are progressively developing and those operating under increasing distress the ability of a household to diversify has been shown to depend upon its demographic and economic characteristics and its physical and social context this paper considers the effects of intra village social networks on household income diversification in one of the poorest and most ethnically diverse areas of the indian state of kerala using techniques adapted from spatial econometrics we find that social connections within a village magnify the impacts of household characteristics such as education and number of adults by a factor of 3 6 times models with alternative measures of network centrality degree and eigenvector indicate that the number of network connections that a household has is more important than the centrality of those connections finally we use social contact information to calculate assortative mixing based on caste the results suggest social stratification in these villages with higher levels of stratification associated with lower levels of income diversification

a model of the operation and development of a national oil company we present a model of the exploration and development activities of a national oil company noc which uses similar technology to a private firm to extract a depletable resource however unlike the private firm the noc may have a wider range of objectives than maximizing the present value of profits specifically we assume an objective function that balances firm profitability against a political desire to favor domestic consumer surplus and domestic employment we find that the non commercial objectives faced by a noc tend to reinforce each other in their effects on profitability the timing of cash flows and employment

british utility regulation theory practice and reform the paper considers the design and performance of the new regulatory regime for u k utilities it describes the rpi x price caps and considers the scope for regulatory discretion and capture particular attention is paid to the informational requirements for the determination of prices the scope for intervention between periods the independence of regulators and the promotion of competition five arguments for regulatory reform are identified regulatory arbitrage capture administrative costs investment sunk costs and regulatory hold up and political instability a number of reforms are then proposed these include merging regulatory bodies a common set of financial rules a common basis for efficiency comparisons and reforming the mmc and judicial review

household strategies and rural livelihood diversification this article reviews the recent literature on diversification as a livelihood strategy of rural households in developing countries with particular reference to sub saharan africa livelihood diversification is defined as the process by which rural families construct a diverse portfolio of activities and social support capabilities in order to survive and to improve their standards of living the determinants and effects of diversification in the areas of poverty income distribution farm output and gender are examined some policy inferences are summarised the conclusion is reached that removal of constraints to and expansion of opportunities for diversification are desirable policy objectives because they give individuals and households more capabilities to improve livelihood security and to raise living standards

policy objectives and performance in a mixed market with bargaining abstract we analyse a mixed duopoly in which wages and salaries are determined by nash bargaining and where the public firm s unit costs depend on its objectives because of constant returns to scale welfare maximisation without restriction would eliminate or significantly weaken the private firm therefore we focus on constrained welfare maximisation in which case unit costs are normally higher in the public firm on the other hand the private firm may even earn more than in a monopoly if the public firm maximises profits or if the constraint offers too much protection

regulating a monopolist with unknown costs we consider the problem of how to regulate a monopolistic firm whose costs are unknown to the regulator the regulator s objective is to maximize a linear social welfare function of the consumers surplus and the firm s profit in the optimal regulatory policy prices and subsidies are designed as functions of the firm s cost report so that expected social welfare is maximized subject to the constraints that the firm has nonnegative profit and has no incentive to misrepresent its costs we explicitly derive the optimal policy and analyze its properties in their classic papers dupuit 2 and hotelling 5 considered pricing policies for a bridge that had a fixed cost of construction and zero marginal cost they demonstrated that the pricing policy that maximizes consumer well being is to set price equal to marginal cost and to provide a subsidy to the supplier equal to the fixed cost so that a firm would be willing to provide the bridge this first best solution is based on a number of informational assumptions first the demand function is assumed to be known to both the regulator and to the firm while the assumption of complete information may be too strong the assumption that information about demand is as available to the regulator as it is to the firm does not seem unnatural a second informational assumption is that the regulator has complete information about the cost of the firm or at least has the same information about cost as does the firm this assumption is unlikely to be met in reality since the firm would be expected to have better information about costs than would the regulator as weitzman has stated an essential feature of the regulatory environment i am trying to describe is uncertainty about the exact specification of each firm s cost function in most cases even the managers and engineers most closely associated with production will be unable to precisely specify beforehand the cheapest way to generate various hypothetical output levels because they are yet removed from the production process the regulators are likely to be vaguer still about a firm s cost function 12 p 684 as this observation suggests it is natural to expect that a firm would have better information regarding its costs than would a regulator the purpose of this paper is to develop an optimal regulatory policy for the case in which the regulator does not know the costs of the firm one strategy that a regulator could use in the absence of full information about costs is to give the firm the title to the total social surplus and to delegate the pricing decision to the firm in pursuing its own interests which would then be to maximize the total social surplus the firm would adopt the same marginal cost pricing strategy that the regulator would have imposed if the regulator had