a spatial mean variance mip model for energy market risk analysis the paper presents a short term market risk model based on the markowitz mean variance method for spatial electricity markets the spatial nature is captured using the correlation of geographically separated markets and the consideration of wheeling administration the model also includes transaction costs and other practical constraints resulting in a mixed integer programming mip model the incorporation of those practical constraints makes the model more attractive than the traditional markowitz portfolio model with continuity a case study is used to illustrate the practical application of the model the results show that the mip portfolio efficient frontier is neither smooth nor concave the paper also considers the possible extension of the model to other energy markets including natural gas and oil markets

how does background risk affect portfolio choice an analysis based on uncertain mean variance model with background risk abstract this paper explores how background risk affects individual investment decisions under the framework of uncertainty theory we propose an uncertain mean variance model with background risk and give its optimal solution when the returns of stocks and background asset obey normal uncertainty distributions on this basis we study the characteristic of the mean variance efficient frontier of the stock portfolio in the presence of background risk furthermore we compare the proposed model with the uncertain mean variance model without background risk and discuss the efficiency difference between the two models and further give the condition where the two models select the same stocks based on the comparison we analyze how background risk affects individual portfolio choice finally we give some numerical examples as illustrations

what drives the high moments of hedge fund returns abstractwe study the high moment distribution of hedge fund returns and identify factors that drive high moment risk using hedge fund monthly returns we find a strong correlation between the first four moments of returns i e mean standard deviation sd skewness and kurtosis and different characteristics of the funds such as leverage liquidity incentives and strategy related factors we find that after controlling for other factors incentives related factors and a hedge fund s specific strategy have the greatest impact on the distribution of fund returns our evidence also suggests investors allocate across hedge fund characteristics while placing greater emphasis on fund strategies and incentive factors

prediction of financial distress for multinational corporations panel estimations across countries this research predicts ex ante financial distress and analyses the link between financial distress performance employment and research and development r d investment in the case of multinatio

information school choice and academic achievement evidence from two experiments we examine a natural experiment and a field experiment that provided direct information on school test scores to lower income families in a public school choice plan receiving information significantly increases the fraction of parents choosing higher performing schools parents with high scoring alternatives nearby were more likely to choose nonguaranteed schools with higher test scores using random variation from each experiment we find that attending a higher scoring school increases student test scores the results imply that school choice will most effectively increase academic achievement for disadvantaged students when parents have easy access to test score information and good options from which to choose

the perceived returns to education and the demand for schooling economists emphasize the link between market returns to education and investments in schooling though many studies estimate these returns with earnings data it is the perceived returns that affect schooling decisions and these perceptions may be inaccurate using survey data for eighth grade boys in the dominican republic we find that the perceived returns to secondary school are extremely low despite high measured returns students at randomly selected schools given information on the higher measured returns completed on average 0 20 0 35 more years of school over the next four years than those who were not

measuring the default risk of small business loans a survival analysis approach in this paper we report that although medium maturity loans originated under the sba 7 a loan guarantee program are targeted to small firms that fail to obtain credit through conventional channels the default experience is comparable to that of a large percentage of loans held by larger commercial banks we establish that the default behavior of these loans is time sensitive as a loan seasons the likelihood of default increases initially peaks in the second year and declines thereafter using a discrete time hazard framework we show that the likelihood of default is conditional on borrower lender and loan characteristics and changes in economic conditions

effects of free choice among public schools in this paper i investigate the impact of a programme in tel aviv israel that terminated an existing inter district busing integration programme and allowed students free choice among public schools the identification is based on difference in differences and regression discontinuity designs that yield various alternative comparison groups drawn from untreated tangent neighbourhoods and adjacent cities across identification methods and comparison groups the results consistently suggest that choice significantly reduces the drop out rate and increases the cognitive achievements of high school students it also improves behavioural outcomes such as teacher student relationships and students social acclimation and satisfaction at school and reduces the level of violence and classroom disruption

school choice school quality and postsecondary attainment we study the impact of a public school choice lottery in charlotte mecklenburg schools on college enrollment and degree completion we find a significant overall increase in college attainment among lottery winners who attend their first choice school using rich administrative data on peers teachers course offerings and other inputs we show that the impacts of choice are strongly predicted by gains on several measures of school quality gains in attainment are concentrated among girls girls respond to attending a better school with higher grades and increases in college preparatory course taking while boys do not

the effect of investment constraints on hedge fund investor returns this paper examines the effect of real world investor level investment constraints including several that have not been studied before on hedge fund performance and its persistence using a large consolidated database we demonstrate that hedge fund performance persistence is significantly reduced when rebalancing rules reflect fund size restrictions and liquidity constraints but remains statistically significant at higher rebalancing frequencies hypothetical investor portfolios that incorporate additional minimum diversification constraints minimum investment requirements and focus on open funds suggest that the performance and its persistence documented in earlier studies of hedge funds is not easily exploitable especially by large investors

hidden survivorship in hedge fund returns this study identifies a previously unreported bias in the tass database owing to a merger with the tremont database 60 percent of the funds added to the tass database between april 1999 and november 2001 are likely to be survivors i e funds that were selected only from funds that were live as of 31 march 1999 the resulting survivorship bias is substantial averaging more than 5 percent a year what would normally be termed the backfill period actually represents hidden survivorship a sorting algorithm to exclude these fund histories is proposed

refinancing profitability and capital structure abstract we revisit the well established puzzle that leverage is negatively correlated with measures of profitability in contrast we find that at times when firms are at or close to their optimal level of leverage the cross sectional correlation between profitability and leverage is positive at other times it is negative these results are consistent with dynamic trade off models in which infrequent capital structure rebalancing is optimal the time series of market leverage and profitability in the quarters prior to rebalancing events match the patterns predicted by these models our results are not driven by investment layouts market timing payout or mechanical mean reversion of leverage

credit risk drivers evaluating the contribution of firm level information and of macroeconomic dynamics abstract understanding if credit risk is driven mostly by idiosyncratic firm characteristics or by systematic factors is an important issue for the assessment of financial stability by exploring the links between credit risk and macroeconomic developments we observe that in periods of economic growth there may be some tendency towards excessive risk taking using an extensive dataset with detailed information for more than 30 000 firms we show that default probabilities are influenced by several firm specific characteristics when time effect controls or macroeconomic variables are also taken into account the results improve substantially hence though the firms financial situation has a central role in explaining default probabilities macroeconomic conditions are also very important when assessing default probabilities over time

liquidity shocks size and the relative performance of hedge fund strategies abstract we examine whether the increase in the flow of capital to hedge funds over the period 1994 2005 had a negative impact on performance more specifically we study the relative performance of small versus large funds for each of the hedge fund strategies our results indicate that on an absolute return basis small funds outperform large funds on a risk adjusted return basis however we find that large funds outperform small funds and that large funds are also shown to hold less liquid assets and take on less systematic and idiosyncratic risk than small funds further funds that experience positive liquidity shocks generally outperform those that experience negative liquidity shocks we also find evidence that hedge fund managers that are aggressive in dealing with liquidity shocks perform better than hedge fund managers that are conservative in dealing with liquidity shocks

bank lending policy credit scoring and the survival of loans to evaluate loan applicants banks increasingly use credit scoring models the objective of such models typically is to minimize default rates or the number of incorrectly classified loans thereby they fail to take into account that loans are multiperiod contracts for which reason it is important for banks not only to know if but also when a loan will default in this paper a bivariate tobit model with a variable censoring threshold and sample selection effects is estimated for 1 the decision to provide a loan or not and 2 the survival time of granted loans the model proves to be an effective tool to separate applicants with short and with long survival times the bank s loan provision process is shown to be inefficient loans are granted in a way that conflicts with both default risk minimization and survival time maximization there is thus no trade off between higher default risk and higher return in the lending policy

survival look ahead bias and the persistence in hedge fund performance we analyze the performance persistence in hedge funds taking into account look ahead bias multi period sampling bias we model liquidation of hedge funds by analyzing how it depends upon historical performance next we use a weighting procedure that eliminates look ahead bias in measures for performance persistence in contrast to earlier results for mutual funds the impact of look ahead bias is exacerbated for hedge funds due to their greater level of total risk at the four quarter horizon look ahead bias can be as much as 3 8 depending upon the decile of the distribution we find positive persistence in hedge fund quarterly returns after correcting for investment style the empirical pattern at the annual level is also consistent with positive persistence but its statistical significance is weak

the risk in hedge fund strategies theory and evidence from trend followers hedge fund strategies typically generate option like returns linear factor models using benchmark asset indices have difficulty explaining them following the suggestions in glosten and jagannathan 1994 this article shows how to model hedge fund returns by focusing on the popular trend following strategy we use lookback straddles to model trend following strategies and show that they can explain trend following funds returns better than standard asset indices though standard straddles lead to similar empirical results lookback straddles are theoretically closer to the concept of trend following our model should be useful in the design of performance benchmarks for trend following funds

broadening the market design approach to school choice school choice refers to policies that allow parents preferences to be an input to the decision of which school a student will attend a rich body of research has developed over the past 10 15 years to study mechanisms that implement school choice this literature has mostly taken the inputs of school choice preferences priorities and capacities as exogenous more recently researchers have sought to embed the school choice problem into its wider context thereby broadening the scope of market design questions and enriching the analysis this article discusses current school choice policy issues in light of this recent literature and outlines remaining open questions

costly search and mutual fund flows this paper studies the flows of funds into and out of equity mutual funds consumers base their fund purchase decisions on prior performance information but do so asymmetrically investing disproportionately more in funds that performed very well the prior period search costs seem to be an important determinant of fund flows high performance appears to be most salient for funds that exert higher marketing effort as measured by higher fees flows are directly related to the size of the fund s complex as well as the current media attention received by the fund which lower consumers search costs

rationality in extensive form games let us adopt the classical point of view that a theory of games is a description of rational behavior consequently equipped with a book entitled theory of games any individual in any strategic situation need only consult the book to make a rational decision one of the questions to address in this context is indeed whether or not strategies other than those provided by backward induction can ever appear in such a book in offering an answer we shall also explore the logical limits within which any theory of games must operate

friction in the trading process and the estimation of systematic risk abstract this paper considers how estimates of the market model beta parameter can be biased by friction in the trading process information decision and transaction costs that a leads to a distinction between observed and true returns b causes observed returns to be generated asynchronously for a set of interdependent securities and c thereby introduces serial cross correlation into security returns several propositions are derived from which consistent estimators of beta are obtained and the effect of differencing interval length on beta estimates is specified the formulation is contrasted with the related analyses of scholes williams 1977 and dimson 1979

predicting hedge fund failure a comparison of risk measures this paper compares downside risk measures that incorporate higher return moments with traditional risk measures such as standard deviation in predicting hedge fund failure when controlling for investment strategies performance fund age size lockup high water mark and leverage we find that funds with larger downside risk have a higher hazard rate how ever standard deviation loses the explanatory power once the other explanatory variables are included in the hazard model further we find that liquidation does not necessarily mean failure in the hedge fund industry by reexamining the attrition rate we show that the real failure rate of 3 1 is lower than the attrition rate of 8 7 on an annual basis during the period of 1995 2004

hedge funds risk and return from a database that is relatively free of bias this article provides measures of the returns of hedge funds and of the distinctly nonnormal characteristics of the data the results include risk adjusted measures of performance and tests of the degree to which hedge funds live up to their claim of market neutrality the substantial attrition of hedge funds is examined the determinants of hedge fund demise are analyzed and results of tests of return persistence are presented the conclusion is that hedge funds are riskier and provide lower returns than is commonly supposed

higher risk lower returns what hedge fund investors really earn abstract the returns of hedge fund investors depend not only on the returns of the funds they hold but also on the timing and magnitude of their capital flows in and out of these funds we use dollar weighted returns a form of internal rate of return irr to assess the properties of actual investor returns on hedge funds and compare them to buy and hold fund returns our main finding is that annualized dollar weighted returns are on the magnitude of 3 to 7 lower than corresponding buy and hold fund returns using factor models of risk and the estimated dollar weighted performance gap we find that the real alpha of hedge fund investors is close to zero in absolute terms dollar weighted returns are reliably lower than the return on the standard poor s s p 500 index and are only marginally higher than the risk free rate as of the end of 2008 the combined impression from these results is that the return experience of hedge fund investors is much worse than previously thought

generalized runs tests to detect randomness in hedge funds returns the major contribution of this paper is to make use of generalized runs tests cho and white 2011 to analyze the randomness i e the lack of persistence in both absolute and relative returns of hedge funds we find that about 42 of the hfr universe exhibit iid absolute returns over the period spanning 2000 to 2012 these funds are mainly found in proportions within the macro and equity hedge strategies a similar result holds for relative returns we also find that funds having non iid returns often exhibit arch effects and structural breaks with largest breaks located within financial crises also only a small percentage displays persistence in their relative performance 8 2 to 16 7 of the universe mainly found in proportions within the relative value and event driven strategies the robustness of results is challenged by implementing the tests on a crisis free period we find similar results for absolute returns for relative ones differences appear across strategies and benchmarks but still both arch and breaks are present our work contributes to the hedge fund literature in terms of methodology portfolio allocation and performance measurement

good principals or good peers parental valuation of school characteristics tiebout equilibrium and the incentive effects of competition among jurisdictions good principals or good peers parental valuation of school characteristics tiebout equilibrium and the incentive effects of competition among jurisdictions by j esse m r othstein school choice policies may by aligning admin istrators incentives with parental demand yield improved efficiency in educational production milton friedman 1962 john e chubb and terry m moe 1990 but eric a hanushek 1981 cautions if the efficiency of our school systems is due to poor incentives for teachers and admin istrators coupled with poor decision making by consumers it would be unwise to expect much from programs that seek to strengthen market forces in the selection of schools p 35 empha sis added poor decision making is not required parents may rationally choose schools with pleasant surroundings athletic facilities cultural advantages ibid p 34 over those that most efficiently pursue academic performance they may prefer poorly run schools with good peer groups over those that are more effective but en roll worse students j douglas willms and frank h echols 1992 1993 or they may simply be unable to identify effective schools thomas j kane and douglas o staiger 2002 any factor that leads parents to choose any but the most effective available schools will tend to dilute the incentives for efficient management that choice might otherwise create this study examines the distribution of stu dent outcomes across schools within metropol itan housing markets for evidence on parental demand economists have long noted that par ents choices among residential locations are potentially informative about how more com plete choice systems may operate charles m tiebout 1956 melvin v borland and roy m howsen 1992 caroline m hoxby 2000 rothstein 2005 1 i ask whether school effec tiveness plays a sufficiently important role in these decisions to create meaningful incentives for more productive school management i adopt a specific understanding of effective ness appropriate to the question at hand a substantial portion of between school differ ences in student performance can be attributed to differences in student body composition this portion includes the effects of individual stu dent characteristics on their own test scores any direct peer group effects and any indirect ef fects of a school s composition on the quality of its instruction if wealthy schools attract better teachers joseph r antos and sherwin rosen 1975 or more parental involvement this is for my purposes a peer effect it depends on the quality of the school s administration only via school composition a school administrator cannot attract demand by offering a school with wealthy students as these can be offered only if wealthy families demand the school in the first place only the remaining portion of a school s contribution to test scores is effectiveness 2 department of economics and woodrow wilson school princeton university wallace hall 3 rd floor princeton nj 08544 e mail jrothst princeton edu i thank alan auerbach tom davidoff caroline hoxby jus tin mccrary rob mcmillan john quigley cecilia rouse emmanuel saez till von wachter four anonymous refer ees editor robert moffitt seminar participants at several institutions and especially david card for helpful sugges tions i am grateful to the college board for essential data and to a national science foundation graduate research fellowship and the fisher center for real estate and urban economics at uc berkeley for funding see cecilia elena rouse 1998 julie b cullen et al 2005 william g howell et al 2002 and alan b krueger and pei zhu 2004 for analyses of several existing nonresidential choice programs though none focuses on the particular issue studied here this definition avoids the need to find observable de terminants of effectiveness which have proved elusive hanushek 1986 my definition however ignores a school s contribution to nontest outcomes e g sports or music if such outcomes motivate parental choices i will conclude that parents do not demand effective schools of

a structural model of multiple welfare program participation and labor supply work on estimating the labor supply effects of high marginal tax rates in welfare programs has been hindered by the difficulty of estimating the effects of participation in multiple welfare programs simultaneously the authors solve this problem by applying methods of simulation estimation to a model of labor supply and multiple program participation the results show asymmetric wage and tax rate effects with fairly large wage elasticities of labor supply but very inelastic responses to moderate changes in cumulative marginal tax rates implying that high welfare tax rates do not necessarily induce major reductions in work effort copyright 1998 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

an econometric model of serial correlation and illiquidity in hedge fund returns the returns to hedge funds and other alternative investments are often highly serially correlated in sharp contrast to the returns of more traditional investment vehicles such as long only equity portfolios and mutual funds in this paper we explore several sources of such serial correlation and show that the most likely explanation is illiquidity exposure i e investments in securities that are not actively traded and for which market prices are not always readily available for portfolios of illiquid securities reported returns will tend to be smoother than true economic returns which will understate volatility and increase risk adjusted performance measures such as the sharpe ratio we propose an econometric model of illiquidity exposure and develop estimators for the smoothing prole as well as a smoothing adjusted sharpe ratio for a sample of 908 hedge funds drawn from the tass database we show that our estimated smoothing coecien ts vary considerably across hedge fund style categories and may be a useful proxy for quantifying illiquidity exposure

how does the stock market view bank regulatory capital forbearance policies during the subprime crisis the fdic has shown once again laxity in resolving and closing insolvent institutions ronn and verma 1986 call the tolerance level below which a bank closure is triggered the regulatory policy parameter we derive a model in which we make this parameter stochastic and bank specific to infer the stock market view of the regulatory capital forbearance value for 565 u s listed banks during 1990 to 2012 the countercyclical forbearance fraction in capital most substantial in recessions could represent 17 on average of the market valuation of bank equity and could go as high as 100

money as a medium of exchange in an economy with artificially intelligent agents abstract we study the exchange economies of kiyotaki and wright 1989 in which agents must use a commodity or fiat money as a medium of exchange if trade is to occur our agents are artificially intelligent and are modeled as using classifier systems to make decisions in the assignment of credit within the classifier systems we introduce some innovations designed to study sequential decision problems in a multi agent environment for most economies that we have simulated trading and consumption patterns converge to a stationary nash equilibrium even if agents start with random rules in economies with multiple equilibria the only equilibrium that emerges in our simulations is the one in which goods with low storage costs play the role of medium of exchange i e the fundamental equilibrium of kiyotaki and wright

trade credit and the propagation of corporate failure an empirical analysis using an exhaustive data set on claims held by trade creditors suppliers on failed trade debtors customers we quantify the importance of trade credit chains for the propagation of corporate bankruptcy we show that trade creditors experience significant trade credit losses due to trade debtor failures and that creditors bankruptcy risks increase in the size of incurred losses by exploring the roles of financial constraints and creditor debtor dependences we infer that the trade credit failure propagation mechanism is driven by both credit losses and demand shrinkage finally we show that the documented propagation mechanism constitutes a significant part of the overall bankruptcy frequency suggesting that it has measurable implications for the aggregate level

multi period performance persistence analysis of hedge funds since hedge funds specify significant lock up periods we investigate persistence in the performance of hedge funds using a multi period framework in which the likelihood of observing persistence by chance is lower than in the traditional two period framework under the null hypothesis of no manager skill no persistence the theoretical distribution of observing wins or losses follows a binormial distribution we test this hypothesis using the traditional two period framework and compare the findings with the results obtained using our multi period framework we examine whether persistence is sensitive to the length of return measurement intervals by using quarterly half yearly and yearly returns we find maximum persistence at the quarterly horizon indicating that presistence among hedge fund managers is short term in nature

valuing school quality via a school choice reform among policymakers educators and economists there remains a strong sometimes heated debate on the extent to which good schools matter this is seen for instance in the strong trend towards establishing accountability systems in education in many countries across the world in this paper in line with some recent studies we value school quality using house prices we however adopt a rather different approach to other work using a policy experiment regarding pupils choice to attend high schools to identify the relationship between house prices and school performance we exploit a change in school choice policy that took place in oslo county in 1997 where the school authorities opened up the possibility for every pupil to apply to any of the high schools in the county without having to live in the school s catchment area the rule that applied before 1997 our estimates show evidence that parents substantially value better performing schools since the sensitivity of housing valuations to school performance falls significantly by over 50 following the school choice reform

only winners in tough times repeat hedge fund performance persistence over different market conditions we provide novel evidence that hedge fund performance is persistent following weak hedge fund markets but is not persistent following strong markets specifically we construct two performance measures downsidereturns and upsidereturns conditioned on the level of overall hedge fund sector returns after adjusting for risks funds in the highest downsidereturns quintile outperform funds in the lowest quintile by about 7 in the subsequent year whereas funds with better upsidereturns do not outperform subsequently the downsidereturns can predict future fund performance over a horizon as long as 3 years for both winners and losers and for funds with few share restrictions

can equity volatility explain the global loan pricing puzzle we examine whether equity volatility can explain the difference in syndicated corporate loan spreads paid by u s and european borrowers first documented by carey and nini 2007 we argue that ols estimates of the association between equity volatility and loan spreads are biased and inconsistent we suggest instrumental variables that potentially identify consistent estimates our instrumental variable results indicate that there is no statistically significant difference in loan spreads paid by u s and european borrowers and that ols estimates of the association between idiosyncratic equity volatility and corporate loan spreads are biased downward by about a factor of 5

the myth of the absolute return investor the notion of absolute return investing is spreading like wildfire many people believe that superior returns can be achieved by managers with strong views and little regard for benchmarks this article attempts to define absolute return investing and figure out whether it exists the conclusion is that all investment returns consist of a beta part representing the correlation of the active portfolio with one or more market benchmarks or normal portfolios and an active alpha part thus all investing is relative return investing in which active returns are earned relative to an appropriate benchmark or mix of benchmarks

analyzing the length of welfare spells abstract this paper studies the determinants of the length of individual spells of welfare focusing on how the length of a spell affects the probability of its termination the analysis utilizes six years of monthly data on time spent in the afdc program among female household heads a variety of duration dependence models are estimated monthly afdc participation does not show strong evidence of duration dependence two distinct groups appear to utilize welfare one with a very low and constant probability of leaving welfare and a second group which is more affected by time on the program

do analysts understand the economic and reporting complexities of derivatives we investigate whether and how the complexity of derivatives influences analysts earnings forecast properties using a difference in differences design we find that relative to a matched control sample of non users analysts earnings forecasts for new derivatives users are less accurate and more dispersed after derivatives initiation these results do not appear to be driven by the economic complexity of derivatives but rather the financial reporting of such economic complexity overall despite their financial expertise analysts routinely misjudge the earnings implications of firms derivatives activity however we find evidence that a series of derivatives accounting standards has helped analysts improve their forecasts over time

an estimation of the hazard rate of firms under chapter 11 protection the instantaneous probability hazard rate of a firm s exit from chapter 11 protection is examined using the weibull duration model the effect of various regressors and the effect of the time a firm spends under chapter 11 protection on this instantaneous probability is analyzed i show that the hazard increases significantly under chapter 11 among the variables chosen the interest burden of the firm and the capacity utilization of the firm s industry significantly increase the hazard other firm specific variables like the long term debt to assets ratio and the number of shares outstanding and economy wide variables like the prime interest rate and the gross national product growth rate have no significant effect on the hazard copyright 1994 by mit press

tournament behavior in hedge funds high water marks fund liquidation and managerial stake we analyze whether risk shifting by a hedge fund manager is related to the manager s incentive contract personal capital stake and the risk of fund closure we find that the propensity to increase risk following poor performance is significantly weaker when incentive pay is tied to the fund s high water mark and when funds face little immediate risk of liquidation risk shifting is also less prevalent when a manager has a significant amount of personal capital invested in the fund overall high water mark provisions managerial stake and low risk of fund closure appear to make a hedge fund manager more conservative with regard to risk shifting

forecasting the fragility of the banking and insurance sectors linkages between banks and insurance companies are important when forecasting the fragility of the banking and insurance sectors we propose a novel empirical framework that allows us to estimate unobserved linkages in panel data sets that contain observed regressors we find that taking unobserved common factors into account reduces the root mean square forecasts error of firm specific forecasts by up to 9 of system forecasts by up to 14 and by up to 39 for systemic forecasts of more distressed firms relative to a model based on observed variables only estimates of the factor loadings suggest that the correlation of financial institutions has been relatively stable over the forecast period

the impact of diverse measures of default risk on uk stock returns a number of recent papers examine the relationship between default risk and equity returns and the results are mixed these studies employ different measures of default risk and we find that correlations between eight diverse measures of default risk tend to be less than 50 nonetheless we find that the relationship between stock returns and diverse measures of default risk tends to be consistent default risk is a significant determinant of stock returns and this relationship is hump backed as predicted by garlappi and yan 2011

the road less traveled strategy distinctiveness and hedge fund performance we investigate whether skilled hedge fund managers are more likely to pursue unique investment strategies that result in superior performance we propose a measure of the distinctiveness of a fund s investment strategy based on historical fund return data we call the measure the strategy distinctiveness index sdi we document substantial cross sectional variations as well as strong persistence in sdi our main result indicates that on average a higher sdi is associated with better subsequent performance after adjusting for risk funds in the highest sdi quintile outperform funds in the lowest quintile by 3 5 in the subsequent year the author 2011 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oup com oxford university press

valuing school quality better transport and lower crime evidence from house prices housing prices within urban areas exhibit highly localized variation that cannot be explained solely by differences in the physical attributes of dwellings we consider the role of local amenities and disamenities in generating price variation within urban areas focusing on three highly policy relevant urban issues transport accessibility school quality and crime our survey of the recent empirical literature highlights what is known and what is not known on these issues and considers the relevance and reliability of this evidence for policy design and evaluation although there are serious empirical challenges we argue that research on housing values based on careful research designs can offer credible estimates of the social value of place specific attributes and amenities

nonsynchronous security trading and market index autocorrelation the theoretical portfolio autocorrelation due solely to nonsynchronous trading is estimated from a derived model this estimated level is found to be substantially less than that observed empirically the theoretical and empirical relationship between portfolio size and autocorrelation also is investigated the results of this study suggest that other price adjustment delay factors in addition to nonsynchronous trading cause the high autocorrelations present in daily returns on stock index portfolios

investment behavior under knightian uncertainty an evolutionary approach abstract the as if view of economic rationality defends the profit maximization hypothesis by pointing out that only those firms who act as if they maximize profits can survive in the long run recently the problem of arriving at a logically consistent definition of rational behavior in games has shown that one must sometimes study explicitly the evolutionary processes that form the basis of this view the purpose of this paper is to investigate the usefulness of genetic programming as a tool for generating hypotheses about rational behavior in situations where explicit maximization is not well defined we use an investment decision problem with knightian uncertainty as a borderline test case and show that when the artificial agents receive the same information about the unknown probability distributions they develop behavior rules as if they were expected utility maximizers with bayesian learning rules

capital structure and financial flexibility expectations of future shocks abstract we test one of the main predictions of the financial flexibility paradigm that expectations about future firm specific investment shocks affect the firm s leverage we extract the expectations of small and large future shocks from the market prices of equity options we find that leverage decreases when expectations for any one of the two types of future shocks increase and the relation is statistically significant even when we control for standard determinants of leverage and the firm s probability of default expectations for future shocks explain a greater fraction of leverage variation than most standard determinants of leverage do and they affect more the small and financially constrained firms our results are not subject to an endogeneity bias and they confirm deangelo et al 2011 model s predictions and the evidence that managers seek for financial flexibility

dynamic prediction of hedge fund survival in crisis prone financial markets abstract this study focuses on dynamic changes in survival probabilities over the lifetimes of hedge funds to model such probabilities a mixed cox proportional hazards cph model specifically a survival hazard model with time varying covariates and fixed covariates is employed resulting dynamic survival probabilities show that the mixed cph model provides significantly higher accuracy in predicting hedge fund failure than other models in the literature including fixed covariate cph models and discrete logit models our results are useful to investors and regulators of hedge funds in crisis prone financial markets

leveling the playing field sincere and sophisticated players in the boston mechanism empirical and experimental evidence suggests different levels of sophistication among families in the boston public school student assignment plan we analyze the preference revelation game induced by the boston mechanism with sincere players who report their true preferences and sophisticated players who play a best response we characterize the set of nash equilibrium outcomes as the set of stable matchings of a modified economy where sincere students lose priority to sophisticated students any sophisticated student weakly prefers her assignment under the pareto dominant nash equilibrium of the boston mechanism to her assignment under the recently adopted student optimal stable mechanism jel d82 i21

comparing school choice mechanisms by interim and ex ante welfare recent work has highlighted welfare gains from the use of the boston mechanism over deferred acceptance da in school choice problems in particular finding that when cardinal utility is taken into account boston interim pareto dominates da in certain incomplete information environments with no school priorities we show that these previous interim results are not robust to the introduction of weak priorities however we partially restore the earlier results by showing that from an ex ante utility perspective the boston mechanism pareto dominates any strategyproof mechanism including da even allowing for arbitrary priority structures thus we suggest ex ante pareto dominance as a relevant criterion by which to compare school choice mechanisms this criterion may be of particular interest to school districts as they can be thought of as social planners whose goal is to maximize the overall ex ante welfare of the students

survivorship bias and attrition effects in measures of performance persistence we simulate standard tests of performance persistence using alternative returngenerating processes survival criteria and test methodologies when survival depends on performance over several periods survivorship bias induces spurious reversals despite the presence of cross sectional heteroskedasticity in performance look ahead biased methodologies and missing nal returns typical of u s mutual fund datasets can also materially a ect persistence measures our results reinforce previous ndings that u s mutual fund performance is truly persistent when fund performance is truly persistent fund attrition a ects persistence measures even when the sample includes all nonsurvivor returns we also examine the speci cation and power of the various persistence tests 1999 elsevier science s a all rights reserved

forecasting bankruptcy more accurately a simple hazard model i argue that hazard models are more appropriate than single period models for forecasting bankruptcy single period models are inconsistent while hazard models produce consistent estimates i describe a simple technique for estimating a discrete time hazard model i find that about half of the accounting ratios that have been used in previous models are not statistically significant moreover market size past stock returns and idiosyncratic returns variability are all strongly related to bankruptcy i propose a model that uses both accounting ratios and market driven variables to produce out of sample forecasts that are more accurate than those of alternative models copyright 2001 by university of chicago press

political influence and declarations of bank insolvency in japan this paper investigates how politics affects bank supervision by examining determinants of bank failures in japan during 1999 2002 a period during which bank regulators were called upon to resolve insolvent banks in preparation for the lifting of a blanket deposit guarantee the empirical results suggest that japan s bank regulators had tendency to delay declarations of insolvency in prefectures that supported senior politicians of the ruling liberal democratic party ldp this result which is robust to a host of bank level and prefecture level controls suggests that bank supervision is prone to political influence that delays efficient resolution of insolvency

assessing and valuing the non linear structure of hedge fund returns several studies have put forward the non linear structure and option like features of returns associated with hedge fund strategies the authors provide a statistical methodology to test for such non linear features with the returns on any benchmark portfolio they estimate the portfolio of options that best approximates the returns of a given hedge fund account for this search in the statistical testing of the contingent claim features and test whether the identi ed non linear features have a positive value the authors nd that not all categories of funds exhibit signi cant non linearities and that only a few strategies as a group provide signi cant value to investors individual funds may still provide value in

default prediction with dynamic sectoral and macroeconomic frailties abstract this paper extends the macroeconomic frailty model to include sectoral frailty factors that capture default correlations among firms in a similar business we estimate sectoral and macroeconomic frailty factors and their effects on default intensity using the data for japanese firms from 1992 to 2010 we find strong evidence for the presence of sectoral frailty factors even after accounting for the effects of observable covariates and macroeconomic frailty on default intensity the model with sectoral frailties performs better than that without results show that accounting for the sources of unobserved sectoral default risk covariations improves the accuracy of default probability estimation

performance characteristics of hedge funds and commodity funds natural vs spurious biases it is well known that the pro forma performance of a sample of investment funds contains biases these biases are documented in brown goetzmann ibbotson and ross 1992 using mutual funds as subjects the organization structure of hedge funds as private and often offshore vehicles makes data collection a much more onerous task amplifying the impact of performance measurement biases theis paper reviews these biases in hedge funds we also propose using funds of hedge funds to measure aggregate hedge fund performance based on the idea that the investment experience of hedge fund investors can be used to estimate the performance of hedge funds

case based decision theory this paper suggests that decision making under uncertainty is at least partly case based we propose a model in which cases are primitive and provide a simple axiomatization of a decision rule that chooses a best act based on its past performance in similar cases each act is evaluated by the sum of the utility levels that resulted from using this act in past cases each weighted by the similarity of that past case to the problem at hand the formal model of case based decision theory naturally gives rise to the notions of satisficing decisions and aspiration levels

political cost incentives for managing the property liability insurer loss reserve this paper examines the effect of rate regulation on the management of the property liability insurer loss reserve the political cost hypothesis predicts that managers make accounting choices to reduce wealth transfers resulting from the regulatory process managers may under state reserves to justify lower rates to regulators alternatively managers may have an incentive to report loss inflating discretionary reserves to reduce the cost of regulatory rate suppression we find insurers over state reserves in the presence of stringent rate regulation investigating the impact along the conditional reserve error distribution we discover that a majority of the response occurs from under reserving firms under reserving less because of stringent rate regulation

assessing the impact of a school subsidy program in mexico using a social experiment to validate a dynamic behavioral model of child schooling and fertility this paper uses data from a randomized social experiment in mexico to estimate and validate a dynamic behavioral model of parental decisions about fertility and child schooling to evaluate the effects of the progresa school subsidy program and to perform a variety of counterfactual experiments of policy alternatives our method of validation estimates the model without using post program data and then compares the model s predictions about program impacts to the experimental impact estimates the results show that the model s predicted program impacts track the experimental results our analysis of counterfactual policies reveals an alternative subsidy schedule that would induce a greater impact on average school attainment at similar cost to the existing program

estimating workers marginal willingness to pay for job attributes using duration data this paper develops and applies a method for estimating workers marginal willingess to pay for job attributes when workers job choices are characterized by imperfect information and labor market search as an application this paper analyzes the job durations of white males using data from the national longitudinal survey youth cohort and the dictionary of occupational titles estimates of workers willingness to pay derived from the job duration model are compared with those derived from an hedonic wage model

school quality and residential property values evidence from vancouver rezoning abstract this study utilizes changes in the catchment areas of public schools in vancouver british columbia to measure the residential price capitalization of school quality specifications that employ repeat sales methods to control for time invariant neighborhood effects and disaggregated price indexes to capture time varying neighborhood price appreciation reveal significant effects of secondary school performance on residential prices however when we add controls for long run price trends in rezoned areas only prices of residences likely to be purchased by high income families appear to have been affected by changes in school quality induced by rezoning

varieties of agents in agent based computational economics a historical and an interdisciplinary perspective in this paper we trace four origins of agent based computational economics ace namely the markets origin the cellular automata origin the tournaments origin and the experiments origin along with this trace we examine how these origins have motivated different concepts and designs of agents in ace which starts from the early work on simple programmed agents randomly behaving agents zero intelligence agents human written programmed agents autonomous agents and empirically calibrated agents and extends to the newly developing cognitive agents psychological agents and culturally sensitive agents the review also shows that the intellectual ideas underlying these varieties of agents cross several disciplines which may be considered as a part of a general attempt to study humans and their behavior with an integrated interdisciplinary foundation

accountability and flexibility in public schools evidence from boston s charters and pilots charter schools are publicly funded but operate outside the regulatory framework and collective bargaining agreements characteristic of traditional public schools in return for this freedom charter schools are subject to heightened accountability this paper estimates the impact of charter school attendance on student achievement using data from boston where charter schools enroll a growing share of students we also evaluate an alternative to the charter model boston s pilot schools these schools have some of the independence of charter schools but operate within the school district face little risk of closure and are covered by many of same collective bargaining provisions as traditional public schools estimates using student assignment lotteries show large and significant test score gains for charter lottery winners in middle and high school in contrast lottery based estimates for pilot schools are small and mostly insignificant the large positive lottery based estimates for charter schools are similar to estimates constructed using statistical controls in the same sample but larger than those using statistical controls in a wider sample of schools the latter are still substantial however the estimates for pilot schools are smaller and more variable than those for charters with some significant negative effects

skill and luck in private equity performance we evaluate the performance of private equity pe funds using a variance decomposition model to separate skill from luck we find a large amount of long term persistence and skilled pe firms outperform by 7 to 8 annually but this performance is noisy with a large amount of luck so top quartile performance does not necessarily imply top quartile skills making it difficult for investors lps to identify skilled pe firms buyout bo firms show the largest skill differences implying the greatest long term persistence venture capital vc performance is the most noisy making good vc firms hardest to identify and implying the smallest amount of investable persistence

rejoinder the j shape of performance persistence given survivorship bias hendricks patel and zeckhauser 1997 hpz find that the response of current to past returns for mutual funds in the presence of survivorship is nonlinear in our rejoinder to their paper we verify their results through simulation provide some intuition for why the result is true and evaluate the power of their proposed test based upon the j shape pattern theirs is a useful contribution to the growing literature about the issue of survival biases in empirical finance it may help to explain puzzling results reported in the mutual fund literature and may provide a guide for future experimental design our investigation of the hpz results led us to a more complete understanding of how differential volatility affects survival conditioned returns our simulations of the test statistic proposed by hpz suggest that the power of the test is dependent on the absolute level of the threshold as well as on the magnitude of the cross sectional differences in variance while it would be useful to have a relia

impact of state exemption laws on small business bankruptcy decision 1 introductionsmall businesses are a primary source of employment in the u s economy employing over half of the private sector workforce small businesses are responsible for about two thirds of all net new jobs created according to the 2002 small business economic indicators sbei 1 over 99 7 of the 5 7 million firms in the united states are classified as small to medium sized businesses hence small businesses are a substantial contributor to economic growth in the united states small business owners enjoy more flexibility and freedom to capitalize on profitable opportunities than their larger business competitors hence they challenge the larger firms to be more efficient which is ultimately beneficial to consumers unfortunately small and medium sized businesses have a very low survival rate sbei 2002 in 2002 on the heels of the 2001 recession there were 550 100 small business births and 584 500 small business terminations both academics and public policy analysts have become increasingly concerned about the success of small businesses recently there has been a surge in small business research particularly surrounding small business credit supply and demand not surprisingly much of the literature has been focused on changes in lending technologies relationship2 versus scored3 information processing technologies soft versus hard 4 loan size considerations 5 and loan type considerations6 as they relate to small business supply and demand however very few have actually examined why small and medium sized businesses have very low survival rates some studies have analyzed the sensitivities of small business administration sba guaranteed loans to macroeconomic changes industry risks maturity structures 3 7 and 15 year maturities as well as lender and debt characteristics e g glennon and nigro 2001 2002 dunsky and pennington cross 2003 meanwhile agarwal chomsisengphet and liu 2003 empirically assessed the significant importance of owner and firm characteristics in determining the risk of small business default while controlling for the macroeconomic and industry risks with bankruptcy filings continuing to rise significantly in recent years many policy makers are turning their attention to bankruptcy laws specifically congress is considering reforming personal bankruptcy laws that if passed will significantly impact the demand for and supply of both consumer credit and small business funding white 2001 concludes that this bankruptcy reform could potentially reduce small business ownership but increase the supply of small business credit and in turn affect the growth of the u s economy small business owners have an incentive to file for personal bankruptcy when their indebtedness exceeds the value of their assets because both their personal and business debts can be discharged 7 though the bankruptcy exemption law is primarily designed for consumers the personal bankruptcy exemption law is a de facto bankruptcy procedure for small business owners because the debt of a noncorporate firm is the personal liability of the entrepreneur owner fan and white 2003 hence investigating the potential impact of the exemption law on small business bankruptcy decisions may provide some insight into how the bankruptcy laws should be reformed further fan and white 2003 argue that while the expected return to creditors should be lower in states with higher exemption level upon small business shutdown it is not entirely clear whether lenders will actually shut down a financially troubled small business while they empirically find that small businesses in high exemption states are more likely to be shut down this positive relationship is statistically insignificant the authors conclude that additional research will be needed to determine if a significant relationship exists p

the abcs of hedge funds alphas betas and costs the authors decomposed their estimated pre fee 1995 2009 hedge fund return of 11 13 percent into fees 3 43 percent an alpha 3 00 percent and a beta 4 70 percent the year by year results show that alphas were positive during every year of the past decade even during the recent financial crisis

priorities in school choice the case of the boston mechanism in barcelona abstract the boston mechanism is a school allocation procedure that is widely used around the world and has been criticized for its incentive problems in order to resolve overdemands for a given school most often priority is given to families living in the neighborhood of the school using a very rich data set on school applications for the case of the boston mechanism in barcelona we exploit an unexpected change in the definition of neighborhood this change allows us to identify that a large fraction of families systematically ranks first high priority schools neighborhood schools in this case additional data on school enrollment decisions and census data shows that some seemingly unsophisticated parents are high income families that can rank hard to get schools because they can afford the outside option of a private school in case they do not get in this sheds light on important inequalities beyond parents lack of sophistication found in the literature

structural estimation of a model of school choices the boston mechanism vs its alternatives we model household choice of schools under the boston mechanism bm and develop a new method applicable to a broad class of mechanisms to fully solve the choice problem even if it is infeasible

the role of time value in convertible bond call policy abstract since the seminal work of ingersoll 1977b the optimal time in which a firm should redeem its outstanding convertible bonds has received large attention by the financial literature several studies have put forward a number of possible costs and benefits for a firm if it interrupts the life of its convertible bonds prior to their contractual maturity however in this paper we argue that the managerial decision to call back a convertible bond is mainly driven by a fundamental variable almost neglected up until now the time value extraction from bondholders conversion option accordingly we propose a measure for the effective convenience of calling which we define as net time value advantage and we show using a survival analysis that it is more effective than previously proposed measures in explaining the firms observed call policy

resolving conflicting preferences in school choice the boston mechanism reconsidered the boston mechanism is among the most popular school choice pro cedures in use yet the mechanism has been criticized for its poor incentive and welfare performances which led the boston public schools to recently replace it with gale and shapley s deferred acceptance algorithm henceforth da the da elicits truthful revelation of ordinal preferences whereas the boston mechanism does not but the latter induces participants to reveal their cardinal preferences i e their relative preference intensities whereas the former does not we show that cardinal preferences matter more when families have similar ordinal preferences and schools have coarse priorities two common features of many school choice environ ments speci cally when students have the same ordinal preferences and schools have no priorities the boston mechanism pareto dominates the da in ex ante wel fare the boston mechanism may not harm but rather bene t participants who may not strategize well in the presence of school priorities the boston mechanism also tends to facilitate a greater access than the da to good schools by those lack ing priorities at those schools these results contrast with the standard view and cautions against a hasty rejection of the boston mechanism in favor of mechanisms such as the da

investment cash flow sensitivities credit rationing and financing constraints in small and medium sized firms the controversy on whether investment cash flow sensitivity is a good indicator of financing constraints is still unsolved we apply a comprehensive approach by cross validating our analysis with both balance sheet and qualitative data on self declared credit rationing and financing constraints on a sample of mainly small and medium sized firms our qualitative information shows that self declared credit rationing is weakly related to both traditional a priori factors such as firm size age and location and lenders rational decisions taken on the basis of their credit risk models we use the qualitative information on firms which were denied additional credit to provide evidence relevant to the investment cash flow sensitivity debate the evidence shows that self declared credit rationing significantly discriminates between firms which possess or not such sensitivity while a priori criteria do not the same result does not apply when we consider the wider group of financially constrained firms which do not seem to have a higher investment cash flow sensitivity supporting the more recent empirical evidence in this direction