natural resources curse or blessing are natural resources a curse or a blessing the empirical evidence suggests that either outcome is possible this paper surveys a variety of hypotheses and supporting evidence for why some countries benefit and others lose from the presence of natural resources these include that a resource bonanza induces appreciation of the real exchange rate deindustrialization and bad growth prospects and that these adverse effects are more severe in volatile countries with bad institutions and lack of rule of law corruption presidential democracies and underdeveloped financial systems another hypothesis is that a resource boom reinforces rent grabbing and civil conflict especially if institutions are bad induces corruption especially in nondemocratic countries and keeps in place bad policies finally resource rich developing economies seem unable to successfully convert their depleting exhaustible resources into other productive assets the survey also offers some welfare based fiscal rules for harnessing resource windfalls in developed and developing economies

absorbing a windfall of foreign exchange dutch disease dynamics abstract the permanent income rule is seldom the optimal response to a windfall of foreign exchange such as that from a resource discovery absorptive capacity constraints require domestic investment and investment in structures requires non traded inputs the supply of which is constrained by the initial capital stock this particularly when combined with intra sectoral capital immobility delays adjustment and creates short run dutch disease symptoms as the real exchange rate sharply appreciates and overshoots its long run value optimal revenue management requires investing in the domestic non traded goods sector and a slow build up of consumption accumulation of foreign assets adjusts to accommodate the time paths of domestic consumption and investment

investment scaling up and the role of government abstractthis article studies the fiscal and welfare implications of a scaling up of public investment when the government is subject to inefficiencies on the spending and on the tax collection side in our simulations the scaling up of public investments results in higher long run output and consumption levels but requires a fiscal stabilization package in order to preserve fiscal sustainability the effects on consumers welfare after the fiscal adjustment are nontrivial our welfare analysis shows that consumers welfare is increased when the government smooths the fiscal adjustment via higher borrowing and not through an increase in taxation moreover the comparison between several stabilization packages via tax adjustment shows that higher welfare is achieved when the government relies mostly on taxation of capital as this allows higher levels of consumption lower fiscal costs that do not undermine fiscal sustainability can however be achieved if the government manages to reduce inefficiency in tax

natural resource booms and inequality theory and evidence we develop a theory in the context of a two sector growth model in which learning by doing drives growth to explain the time path of income inequality following natural resource booms in resource rich countries under the condition of a relatively unskilled labor intensive non traded sector inequality falls immediately after a boom and then increases steadily over time until the initial impact of the boom disappears using data for 90 countries between 1965 and 1999 we find evidence in support of the theory especially for oil and mineral booms we also find that uncertainty about future commodity prices increases long run inequality

the resource curse a statistical mirage abstract a surprising feature of resource rich economies is slow growth it is often argued that natural resource production impedes development by creating market or institutional failures this paper establishes an alternative explanation a slow growing resource sector a declining resource sector is disproportionately reflected in resource dependent countries additionally there is little evidence that resource dependence impedes growth in non resource sectors more generally this paper illustrates the importance of considering industry composition in cross country growth regressions

a theory of volatility spreads this study formalizes the departure between risk neutral and physical index return volatilities termed volatility spreads theoretically the departure between risk neutral and physical index volatility is connected to the higher order physical return moments and the parameters of the pricing kernel process this theory predicts positive volatility spreads when investors are risk averse and when the physical index distribution is negatively skewed and leptokurtic our empirical evidence is supportive of the theoretical implications of risk aversion exposure to tail events and fatter left tails of the physical index distribution in markets where volatility is traded

the dutch disease a disease after all many third world oil producers are encountering serious problems in building up a diversified export base while west european oil and gas producers netherlands united kingdom are suffering a decline in their traded goods manufacturing sector induced by real wage pressures it is becoming increasingly clear that high but temporary oil revenues may be somewhat ora mixed blessing the quip of the economist notwithstanding the mechanism behind this unbalance is clear enough part of the oil revenues is spent on non traded goods which leads to a real appreciation i e a rise in the relative price of non traded goods in terms of traded goods this in turn draws resources out of the non oil traded sector into the non traded goods producing sector corden and neary 1982 van wijnbergen 1980 one may say that this is an efficient response to the increase in income from oil production the united kingdom mexico egypt simply should move into oil derived industries and non traded goods and forget about their manufacturing sector until oil reserves are exhausted however many developing countries are hesitant to take this advice after all the post world war ii success stories in economic development involve without exception countries that promoted their traded goods sector aggressively moreover it is a well established stylised fact that technological progress is faster in the traded non sheltered sectors of an economy than in the non traded sector balassa 1964 is an early reference considering the hypothesis that technological progress rather than taking place exogenously with the passage of time is a function of accumulated experience the concern of countries like egypt mexico or indonesia is much easier to understand since solow 1957 and denison 1962 it is known that capital accumulation explain only a small part of economic growth if most of economic growth is caused by learning by doing induced technologica

r d and manufacturing production specialization in developed economies a study of the relation between technology and manufacturing production specialization in a series of developed economies is performed by means of models relating indicators of revealed symmetric comparative advantage of value added and exports to similar measures of comparative performance of r d expenditure capital intensity total factor productivity and wage costs the production and r d specialization are shown to be substantial and sticky this contrasts with the evidence of a substantial degree of convergence in the patterns of the other variables regression estimates show that although all variables play their part the impact of comparative r d efforts on production specialization is by far the strongest this impact is found to be stronger in the smaller economies and it is especially important in research intensive industries the influence of comparative wages is moreover found to be positive here suggesting the dominance of a labour skill and efficiency wage effect over a wage cost comp

using natural resources for development why has it proven so difficult developing economies have found it hard to use natural resource wealth to improve their economic performance utilizing resource endowments is a multistage economic and political problem that requires private investment to discover and extract the resource fiscal regimes to capture revenue judicious spending and investment decisions and policies to manage volatility and mitigate adverse impacts on the rest of the economy experience is mixed with some successes such as botswana and malaysia and more failures this paper reviews the challenges that are faced in successfully managing resource wealth the evidence on country performance and the reasons for disappointing results

the behavior of manufacturing firms under the new economic model abstract a study of medium and large domestic manufacturing firms in latin america shows that the region s new economic model has led to significant transformations in firm behavior the study results may not be generalizable however since the sample is small and not statistically representative nevertheless they provide insights into the behavior of the most modernizing domestic manufacturing firms and into the role of policy aimed at encouraging firms to upgrade

the narrow moving band the dutch disease and the competitive consequences of mrs thatcher notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies abstract this paper presents a model of trade in which comparative advantage instead of being determined by underlying attributes of countries evolves over time through learning by doing in this model arbitrary patterns of specialization once established tend to become entrenched over time the model sheds light on three widely held views that do not make sense in more conventional models first is the view that temporary protection of selected sectors can permanently alter the pattern of comparative advantage in the protecting country s favor second is the view that seemingly favorable developments such as the discovery of exportable natural resources may lead to a permanent loss of other sectors and reduce welfare in the long run third is the possibility that a temporary overvaluation of a currency due to tight money can lead to a permanent loss of competitiveness in some sectors

social reporting by companies listed on the alternative investment market while the existing literature focuses on the disclosure of social information mainly by large companies this paper concentrates on the disclosure of social information by small and medium sized companies sme listed on the alternative investment market aim in the u k the paper investigates the prevalent view that smes are unlikely to report social information due to their financial constraints and the perception that they have very little social conduct on which to report our overall evidence illustrates that contrary to this view smes report social information regardless of their financial constraints most likely in the same manner as large companies do because they realise the significance of social reporting in establishing and retaining their corporate reputation

post disaster aid and development of the manufacturing sector lessons from a natural experiment in china abstract we adopt a disaggregate approach to study the link between aid and dutch disease dynamics using a natural experiment in china specifically we examine whether post disaster aid provided to a subsample of chinese counties devastated by an earthquake in 2008 affects the sectoral composition of local economies using different methods we consistently find that counties receiving more aid even nearby counties not directly damaged by the earthquake tend to suffer from a contraction of the manufacturing sector innovative features of the paper include its regional perspective its identification strategy resting on a special provision in chinese policy pairwise aid and its focus on dutch disease effects in the context of post disaster aid

do national level policies to promote low carbon technology deployment pay off for the investor countries abstract national level policies to promote deployment of low carbon technologies have been suggested and used as a means to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the context of international climate change mitigation the long term benefits of such policies in the context of international climate change mitigation depend on their effects on near term emissions abatement and resultant long term technological change that will reduce abatement costs of achieving global mitigation goals there is also an argument that these policies might foster early mover advantages in international low carbon technology markets we first review the factors that could influence such benefits and use a global integrated assessment model to present an illustrative example to understand the potential magnitude of these benefits we find that reductions in long term abatement costs might not provide sufficient incentives to justify policies to promote the deployment of low carbon technologies in particular the emerging higher risk and currently expensive alternatives we also find that early mover advantages can potentially provide substantial benefits but only if these advantages are both strong and persistent our results suggest a role for international cooperation in low carbon technology deployment to address the existence of free riding opportunities in the context of global climate change mitigation

partisan impacts on the economy evidence from prediction markets and close elections analyses of the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the problem that economic outcomes also influence elections we sidestep these problems by analyzing movements in economic indicators caused by clearly exogenous changes in expectations about the likely winner during election day analyzing high frequency financial fluctuations following the release of flawed exit poll data on election day 2004 and then during the vote count we find that markets anticipated higher equity prices interest rates and oil prices and a stronger dollar under a george w bush presidency than under john kerry a similar republican democrat differential was also observed for the 2000 bush gore contest prediction market based analyses of all presidential elections since 1880 also reveal a similar pattern of partisan impacts suggesting that electing a republican president raises equity valuations by 2 3 percent and that since ronald reagan republican presidents have tended to raise bond yields

us regional income convergence a spatial econometric perspective rey s j and montouri b d 1999 us regional income convergence a spatial econometric perspective reg studies 33 143 156 this study reconsiders the question of us regional economic income convergence from a spatial econometric perspective recently developed methods of exploratory spatial data analysis provide new insights on the geographical dynamics of us regional income growth patterns over the 1929 94 period strong patterns of both global and local spatial autocorrelation are found throughout the study period and the magnitude of global spatial autocorrelation is also found to exhibit strong temporal co movement with regional income dispersion a spatial econometric analysis of the familiar baumol specification reveals strong evidence of misspecification due to ignored spatial error dependence because of this dependence shocks originating in one state can spillover into surrounding states potentially complicating the transitional dynamics of the convergence process rey s j et montouri

market timing with option implied distributions a forward looking approach we address the empirical implementation of the static asset allocation problem by developing a forward looking approach that uses information from market option prices to this end we extract constant maturity s p 500 implied distributions and transform them to the corresponding risk adjusted ones then we form optimal portfolios consisting of a risky and a risk free asset and evaluate their out of sample performance we find that the use of risk adjusted implied distributions times the market and makes the investor better off than if she uses historical returns distributions to calculate her optimal strategy the results hold under a number of evaluation metrics and utility functions and carry through even when transaction costs are taken into account not surprisingly the reported market timing ability deteriorated during the recent subprime crisis an extension of the approach to a dynamic asset allocation setting is also presented this paper was accepted by wei xiong finance

the energy transition of the transition economies an empirical analysis the aggregate manufacturing energy intensity of 28 countries in eastern europe and central asia had declined by 35 percent during 1998 2008 this study reveals strong evidence of convergence less efficient countries improved more rapidly and the cross country variance in energy productivity narrowed over time an index decomposition analysis indicates that energy intensities declined largely because of more efficient energy use rather than shifts from energy intensive to less intensive manufacturing activities income growth and energy price increases were the main drivers of the convergence they dominated the impact of trade which led to specialization in energy intensive industries

are policy platforms capitalized into equity prices evidence from the bush gore 2000 presidential election abstract this paper tests for the capitalization of policy platforms into equity prices using a sample of 70 firms favored under bush or gore platforms during the 2000 u s presidential election two sources of daily data during the six months leading up to the election are incorporated firm specific equity returns and the probability of a bush victory as implied by prices from the iowa electronic market for this group of politically sensitive firms the daily baseline estimates demonstrate that platforms are capitalized into equity prices under a bush administration relative to a counterfactual gore administration bush favored firms are worth 3 more and gore favored firms are worth 6 less implying a statistically significant differential return of 9 estimates based on weekly returns are even stronger suggesting a differential return of 16 the most sensitive sectors include tobacco worth 13 more under a favorable bush administration microsoft competitors worth 15 less under an unfavorable bush administration and alternative energy companies worth 16 less under an unfavorable bush administration a corresponding analysis of campaign contributions which allows for heterogeneity in the importance of policy platforms to the firms supports the baseline estimates

policy rivalry among industrial states what can we learn from models of strategic trade policy the economic theory of international trade has changed dramatically over the last decade by admitting into its mainstream a body of literature that focuses on the implications of monopolistic and oligopolistic elements in international markets by applying the tools of the new industrial organization in an international context two new classes of models have emerged models of intra industry trade and models of strategic trade policy the policy implications of models of strategic trade policy were quite disturbing for the economics profession since these models demonstrated that the classical harmony between national and cosmopolitan welfare maximization does not exist if one assumes opportunities for strategic manipulation of oligopolistic international industries this article reviews two prominent models of strategic trade policy the brander spencer model and the krugman model and relates them to more familiar earlier concepts such as stackelberg s asymmetrical duopoly solution and the venerable infant industry argument for government intervention the primary purpose of this article however is to provide a synopsis of the large literature addressing the question of whether models of strategic trade policy can give guidance for government policy

can a liberalization of capital outflows increase net capital inflows abstract facing massive capital inflows that put downward pressure on the real exchange rate some policymakers and analysts have recommended a liberalization of capital outflows empirically however the removal of capital outflow controls has apparently stimulated a net inflow of capital in several experiences such as britain since 1979 italy new zealand and spain in the mid to late 1980s and colombia egypt and mexico in the 1990s numerous measures to liberalize capital outflows in chile during the 1990s have not had a noticeable effect in offseting a surge of net capital inflows how can we explain the apparent paradox that reducing controls on capital outflows can actually increase net capital inflows our theoretical model provides one such explanation a liberalization of capital outflows understood here as a reduction in the minimum capital repatriation period for foreign investment reduces the degree of irreversibility of the decision to invest in a given country this in turn lowers the option value of waiting until uncertainty about a possible change in the rules of the game that affect investment in domestic assets is resolved because in this event foreigners investing at home will be stuck with the low return asset for a shorter period of time thus a reduction in the minimum repatriation period is likely to increase not decrease net capital inflows this result has an important policy implication liberalizing capital outflows may have significant benefits on its own but it may not be the appropriate policy to defend the real exchange rate in the presence of massive capital inflows because it is likely to strengthen those very capital inflows

the risk premium that never was a fair value explanation of the volatility spread abstract we present a new framework to investigate the profitability of trading the volatility spread the upward bias on implied volatility as an estimator of future realized volatility the scheme incorporates the first four option implied moments in a growth optimal payoff that is statically replicated using a portfolio of options removing the upward bias on implied volatility worsens the likelihood score of risk neutral densities obtained from s p 500 index options when they are used as forecasts of the underlying index return distribution it also results in negative expected capital growth when they are used in a volatility arbitrage scheme our empirical finding is that the upward bias on implied volatility does not represent a long term return premium rather it is required to mitigate the large losses associated with tail events when trading volatility in options markets

election uncertainty economic policy uncertainty and financial market uncertainty a prediction market analysis abstract we examine the relationship between election uncertainty economic policy uncertainty and financial market uncertainty in a prediction market analysis covering seven us presidential election campaigns we argue theoretically that changes in the incumbent party re election probability should be a key driver of changes in policy uncertainty consistent with this theory we find that a large portion of changes in financial uncertainty in the final stages of election campaign seasons is explained by changes in the probability of the incumbent party getting re elected our findings suggest that the incumbent party election probability derived from prediction markets is an important measure of economic policy uncertainty in the days leading up to us elections

the uk alternative investment market ethical dimensions the uk alternative investment market aim was launched in 1995 and has been a great success with over 1200 companies now listed in this article we examine the development of aim as it reaches its 15th year and discuss the potential pitfalls of the light touch regulation that is one of the attractions of aim and identify potential corporate governance and ethical issues that may arise as a result of light touch regulation we examine the central role of the nominated advisor nomad and draw on the findings of in depth interviews with 25 aim participants including aim company directors institutional investors nominated advisors and brokers we highlight the influence of the nomad on these participants and potential governance and ethical implications we also discuss some of the concerns that aim participants have about the market we examine some of the recent scandals on aim to determine why these scandals occurred were they for example attributable to corporate governance weaknesses finally we offer some concluding comments to discuss the future of aim the findings of the article have important implications for investors and policymakers alike

optimal dutch disease growth models of the dutch disease such as those of krugman 1987 matsuyama 1992 sachs and warner 1995 and gylfason et al 1999 explain why resource abundance may reduce growth however the literature also raises a new question if the use of resource wealth hurts productivity growth how should such wealth be optimally managed this question forms the topic of the present paper in which we extend the growth literature on the dutch disease from a positive to a normative setting we show that the assumptions in the previous literature imply that the optimal share of national wealth consumed in each period needs to be adjusted down however some dutch disease is always optimal thus lower growth in resource abundant countries may not be a problem in itself but may be part of an optimal growth path the optimal spending path of the resource wealth may be increasing or decreasing over time and we discuss why this is the case

the dynamic impact of unilateral environmental policies this paper builds a two country two sector polluting nonpolluting trade model with directed technical change examining whether unilateral environmental policies can ensure sustainable growth the emission rate of the polluting sector depends on its relative use of a clean and a dirty input a unilateral policy combining clean research subsidies and a trade tax can ensure sustainable growth while unilateral carbon taxes alone increase innovation in the polluting sector abroad and generally cannot ensure sustainable growth relative to autarky and exogenous technical change respectively trade and directed technical change accelerate environmental degradation either under laissez faire or with unilateral carbon taxes yet both help reduce environmental degradation under the appropriate unilateral policy i characterize the optimal unilateral policy analytically and numerically using calibrated simulations knowledge spillovers have the potential to reduce the otherwise large welfare costs of restricting policy to onecountry

the dutch disease and intergenerational welfare governments in resource abundant economies face a tradeoff between transferring wealth to present generations and saving for future generations employing an overlapping generations framework with endogenous growth this article analyses the intergenerational welfare effects of 1 a wealth transfer policy where the entire wealth is transferred to the generations alive at present 2 an income transfer policy where the wealth is saved and the permanent income of the wealth is transferred to all present and future generations forever not surprisingly present generations are unambiguously better off with the wealth transfer policy less trivially however the wealth transfer policy can be associated with higher welfare also for future generations the intuition for this result is that while a wealth transfer depresses growth only in the periods subsequent to the transfer income transfers constitute a permanent drag on growth perhaps counter to the naive intuition the policy of saving the wealth and

the real exchange rate structural change and female labor force participation abstract while a large literature examines the role of fiscal policy in reducing gender gaps in labor market outcomes scant evidence exists for the role of monetary and exchange rate policies in doing so recent studies have shown that targeting an undervalued real exchange rate stimulates economic growth by expanding tradable sector output we examine whether such growth reduces gender gaps in labor force participation by improving labor market opportunities for women using a comprehensive cross country dataset from 1960 to 2015 for a maximum of 103 countries we test whether there is a robust relationship between currency undervaluation and female labor force participation we find that countries that maintain an undervalued real exchange rate realize an increase in female labor force participation and a corresponding decline in the difference between male and female labor force participation rates this finding is particularly pertinent for developing countries and is robust to various specification checks as well as different estimation techniques we also provide suggestive evidence that the operative channel is an expansion of female employment in manufacturing and industrial sectors our findings have important policy implications particularly for countries in earlier stages of their development our results indicate that the positive effect of undervaluation on female labor force participation is stronger in developing countries implying that there may be opportunities for interventions to target a more undervalued real exchange rate in these countries hence competitive exchange rate policies matter not only for raising long term growth potential but also for reducing longstanding gender disparities in labor force participation

the production life cycle tasks in production have different dynamics in comparison with individual products we build a general equilibrium model where three forces offshoring learning and wage interact to determine how production fragmentation evolves over time we show that the production process follows a life cycle its fragmentation emerges deepens and converges our model is stylized and versatile which can be used to tractably characterize the loci of global output productivity welfare and value added distribution as production fragmentation progresses this article is protected by copyright all rights reserved

structural transformation and comparative advantage implications for small open economies data from the last half century show that revealed comparative advantage in agriculture manufacturing is negatively positively associated with the rate of decline in labour share in agriculture motivated by this finding the author constructs and calibrates a simple open economy model where there is learning by doing in manufacturing and industry supplied inputs to agricultural production this paper focuses on the effects of comparative advantage and learning by doing on structural transformation and calibrate the model to the us and the uk data to estimate key parameters of the model quantitative experiments show that holding constant other factors a small difference in a country s comparative advantage can account for a large variation in structural transformation for open economies which does not require nearly as much differential productivity growth as in closed economy models

natural resources rent seeking and welfare abstract a new and very simple mechanism to explain why natural resource abundance may lower income and welfare is developed in a model with rent seeking a greater amount of natural resources increases the number of entrepreneurs engaged in rent seeking and reduces the number of entrepreneurs running productive firms with a demand externality it is shown that the drop in income as a result of this is higher than the increase in income from the natural resource more natural resources thus lead to lower welfare

booming sector and de industrialisation in a small open economy this paper presents a theoretical analysis of the dutch disease the phenomenon whereby a boom in one traded goods sector squeezes porfitability in other traded goods sectors both by directly bi

the division of labor need not imply regional specialization the regional specialization of economic activities is generally deemed desirable for three reasons 1 the law of comparative advantage 2 localized economies of scale and 3 knowledge spillovers taking a methodological individualist perspective we claim that 1 the law of comparative advantage while valid for individuals and firms does not necessarily imply regional specialization when regions are viewed as consisting of heterogeneous individuals 2 localized economies of scale are seldom specific to one industry and external in all but the regional level and 3 the study of knowledge spillovers is inconclusive and would benefit from a more disaggregated perspective

carbon curse in developed countries among the ten countries with the highest carbon intensity six are natural resource rich countries this suggests the existence of a carbon curse resource rich countries would tend to follow more carbon intensive development paths than resource poor countries we investigate this assumption empirically using a panel data method covering 29 countries oecd and bric and seven sectors over the 1995 2009 period first at the macroeconomic level we find that the relationship between national co 2 emissions per unit of gdp and abundance in natural resources is u shaped the carbon curse appears only after the turning point second we measure the impact of resource abundance on sectoral emissions for two groups of countries based on their resource endowments we show that a country rich in natural resources pollutes relatively more in resource related sectors as well as all other sectors our results suggest that the debate on climate change mitigation should rather focus on a comparison of resource rich countries versus resource poor countries than the developed country versus developing country debate

the evolution of comparative advantage measurement and welfare implications using an industry level dataset of production and trade spanning 75 countries and 5 decades and a fully specied multi sector ricardian model we estimate productivities at sector level and examine how they evolve over time in both developed and developing countries we nd that in both country groups comparative advantage has become weaker productivity grew systematically faster in sectors that were initially at the greater comparative disadvantage the global welfare implications of this phenomenon are signicant relative to the counterfactual scenario in which an individual country s comparative advantage remained the same as in the 1960s and technology in all sectors grew at the same country specic average rate welfare today is 1 9 lower at the median the welfare impact varies greatly across countries ranging from 0 5 to 6 among oecd countries and from 9 to 27 among non oecd countries remarkably for the oecd countries nearly all of the welfare impact is driven by changes in technology in oecd countries and for the non oecd countries nearly all of the welfare impact is driven by changes in technology in non oecd countries

fear of appreciation abstract in recent years the term fear of floating has been used to describe exchange rate regimes that while officially flexible in practice intervene heavily to avoid sudden or large depreciations however the data reveals that in most cases and increasingly so in the 2000s intervention has been aimed at limiting appreciations rather than depreciations often motivated by the neo mercantilist view of a depreciated real exchange rate as protection for domestic industries as a first step to address the broader question of whether this view delivers on its promise we examine whether this fear of appreciation has a positive impact on growth performance in developing economies we show that depreciated exchange rates indeed lead to higher growth but that the effect rather than through import substitution or export booms as argued by the mercantilist view works largely through the deepening of domestic savings and capital accumulation

history versus equilibrium and the theory of economic growth a model of cumulative causation is developed and the limits of this model as a characterization of historical rather than equilibrium long run growth outcomes are discussed an extension of the model which postulates that cumulative causation occurs in the context of technological and institutional regimes is proposed outcomes in the extended model are shown to be more influenced by history than those in the original model the extended model also addresses a number of recent criticisms of cumulative causation copyright 1997 by oxford university press

historical presidential betting markets this paper analyzes the large and often well organized markets for betting on u s presidential elections that operated between 1868 and 1940 four main points are addressed first we show that the market did a remarkable job forecasting elections in an era before scientific polling second the market was fairly efficient despite the limited information of participants and active attempts to manipulate the odds third we argue political betting markets disappeared largely because of the rise of scientific polls and the increasing availability of other forms of gambling finally we discuss lessons this experience provides for the present

the resource curse what have we learned from two decades of intensive research introduction to the special issue there has been increasing interest in the so called resource curse that is the tendency of resource rich countries to underperform in several development outcomes this has generated a mountain of often contradictory evidence leaving many floundering in the flood of information this special issue compiles eight papers from some of the most prominent contributors to this literature combining original research with critical reflection on the current stock of knowledge the studies collectively emphasise the complexities and conditionalities of the curse its presence intensity is largely context specific depending on the type of resources socio political institutions and linkages with the rest of the economy

on endogenizing long run growth this assessment of recent theoretical work on endogenous growth identifies three different engines of long run growth i the asymptotic average product of capital is positive ii labor productivity increases as an external effect of capital accumulation iii there are feedback effects on the cost of accumulating knowledge or innovating a general model encompassing all three is considered and then used to review different proposed determinants of long run growth rates the contribution of endogenous growth theory has been to create a framework in which to explain why economic institutions and policies can have long run effects on growth rates

reforming the global economic architecture lessons from recent crises economic theory and empirical research agree that capital market liberalization can result in greater vulnerability to crisis opening a country s capital account encourages short term capital flows and increases potential instability in east asia huge short term capital inflows after the opening of capital accounts were followed by even more rapid outflows other forms of financial liberalization can lead to an increase in risky lending by banks in thailand investments in speculative real estate grew dramatically after liberalization

economic development in a world with many countries abstract this paper examines economic development and growth within a model of a continuum of countries we can show the industrialization process of less developed countries endogenously the necessary conditions for industrialization depend on the relative position of the country in the world economy hence not only the domestic conditions but also the performances of other countries are important for industrialization by using this result we also consider the relation between agricultural productivity and industrialization this relation is dependent on the situation of the world economy if an agricultural country has high industrial productivity high agricultural productivity may enhance industrialization but this relation may become inverse by changing the performance of other less developed countries furthermore we examine the effects of less productive industrialized countries those countries deter industrialization of less developed countries and development of other industrialized countries this result is important to consider the infant industry protection policy

variance risk premium dynamics the role of jumps using high frequency stock market data and synthetic variance swap rates this paper identifles and investigates the temporal variation in the market variance risk premium the variance risk is manifest in two salient features of flnancial returns stochastic volatility and jumps the pricing of these two separate components is analyzed in a general semiparametric framework the key empirical results imply that investors fears of future jumps are especially sensitive to recent jump activity and that their willingness to pay for protection against jumps increase signiflcantly immediately after the occurrence of jumps this in turn suggests that time varying risk aversion as previously documented in the literature is primarily driven by large or extreme market moves the dynamics of risk neutral jump intensity extracted from deep out of the money put options conflrms these flndings jel c51 c52 g12 g13

dutch disease effect of oil rents on agriculture value added in middle east and north african mena countries abstract this paper investigates the effect of oil rents on agriculture value added in oil producing middle east and north african mena countries annual data from 1970 to 2011 panel cointegration tests by pedroni 1999 long ran panel causality tests by canning and pedroni 2008 and two step system gmm by blundell and bond 1998 are used in this study we find a negative relationship between oil rents and agriculture value added in the long run with a rather slow rate of short run adjustment of agriculture value added back to equilibrium after a boom in oil rents these results indicate that an oil sector boom is associated with a contraction in the agriculture sectors of the countries in the panel in the long run this is probably attributable to a resource movement effect from other economic sectors to the booming oil sector in these countries this serves as evidence of a dutch disease effect of an oil sector boom on agriculture in the mena countries in this study

the effects of mongolia s booming mining industry on its agricultural sector a test for dutch disease dutch disease occurs when currency strengthening associated with a booming sector of an economy crowds out a lagging trade dependent sector in this study a keynesian style model is specified to deduce hypotheses about how increased foreign direct investment fdi aimed at mongolia s mining sector affects its agricultural sector a key finding is that while econometric results suggest the increased fdi strengthened mongolia s currency its adverse effect on mongolia s trade sensitive agricultural sector is not sufficiently strong to cause the sector to decline although dutch disease was not detected the posited mechanism clearly is important specifically when currency strengthening is ignored the reduced form elasticity of agricultural value added with respect to fdi is 2 7 times larger than when currency strengthening is taken into account 0 103 vs 0 038 also fdi induced currency strengthening causes the keynesian multiplier y g to drop from 2 40 to 2 00 and the fdi multiplier y fdi to drop from 3 05 to 1 89

does inequality drive the dutch disease theory and evidence in this paper we show that the dutch disease can arise solely from inequality in the distribution of natural resource rents given two otherwise identical countries that differ only in the ownership shares of the natural resource rents the country with the less equal distribution will have less production of manufacturing goods and less development of learning by doing in this sector as opposed to conventional models where income distribution has no effect on economic outcomes an unequal distribution of the resource wealth can generate the dutch disease dynamics even in countries with an initial comparative advantage in manufacturing we also provide a range of empirical tests of our model including both difference and system gmm estimators in a dynamic panel to disentangle the effects of inequality and institutional quality we purge our inequality measure of any linear or higher order correlations with institutional quality and repeat our system and difference gmm estimations our empirical analysis supports the hypothesis that inequality indeed plays a significant role in whether being resource rich is a blessing or a curse for a country the more unequal is the distribution of natural resource rents the stronger is the disease

three decades of italian comparative advantages he structure of italian exports its characteristics its changes over time its causes and implications in terms of income and growth employment and fragility with respect to domestic and international shocks has been the issue around which at least three generations of italian economists have discussed and disagreed over the last 30 years if one has to attribute to one single cause the origin of this multi faceted debate that very cause would be the perplexity associated with the evidence of italy being on the one hand a large industrialised country with per capita income comparable to the top high income oecd members world bank 2004 and on the other hand being characterised by an export composition where traditional low skilled labour intensive sectors oecd 2001 and peneder 2003 such as textiles wearing apparel leather products furniture and footwear still play a relevant role this anomaly in the italian trade structure with respect to one of its fellow members of the g7 and its high level of persistence is what makes of italy a case in the international trading system this paper describes the primary feature giving rise to this debate the italian export composition and its evolution over time the analysis makes use of the revealed comparative advantage rca index associated with the name of bela balassa and through non parametric statistical techniques estimates the empirical the author is very grateful to miur prin pie 2003 and jetro for the financial support and to giancarlo spagnolo for his encouragement discussions with matteo bugamelli giuliano conti davide castellani sergio de nardis paolo guerrieri fabrizio onida and lucia tajoli are gratefully acknowledged the author thanks riccardo faini for sharing his work on the topic and lucia piscitello for making her districts taxonomy available he also benefited from the comments of two anonymous referees that largely influenced the restructuring of the paper many of the arguments of this paper come from the inspiring discussions the author had over the years with massimo tamberi all remaining errors and omissions are the author s own responsibility the data sets and the rscript used in the paper can be downloaded from the webpage http www economiamc org debenedictis

why do some resource abundant countries succeed while others do not on average resource abundant countries have experienced lower growth over the last four decades than their resource poor counterparts but the most interesting aspect of the paradox of plenty is not the average effect of natural resources but its variation for every nigeria or venezuela there is a norway or a botswana why do natural resources induce prosperity in some countries but stagnation in others this paper gives an overview of the dimensions along which resource abundant winners and losers differ in light of this it then discusses different theory models of the resource curse with a particular emphasis on recent developments

helping infant economies grow foundations of trade policies for developing countries conventional wisdom has it that trade enhances economic efficiency and thus promotes growth at least since robert m solow s 1957 pioneering work however technological progress has been recognized as the dominant factor in determining the rate of growth this is presumably even more true for developing countries for which the possibilities of closing the knowledge gap with advanced industrial countries offers especially large growth potential we examine the impact of trade restrictions in economies in which technological spillovers within countries and across industries are fundamental to the process of growth see kenneth j arrow 1962a 1962b paul m romer 1986 stiglitz 1987 since that work it has been clear that markets by themselves do not necessarily or in general lead to overall dynamic efficiency and that there are often trade offs between static inefficiencies e g associated with patent protection and long term growth we find here in particular that the dynamic benefits of broad trade restrictions may outweigh their static costs our analysis provides the basis of an infant economy as opposed to an infant industry argument for protection this paper develops a simple two sector model with an industrial modern and a traditional craft or agricultural sector there are four key features to the model a there are spillovers from the industrial sector to the craft sector for which firms in the industrial sector are not compensated b such spillovers are geographically based that is it is only productivity increases in the industrial sector in the developing countries that affect productivity increases in the traditional sector c innovations are concentrated in the industrial sector and d size is among the important determinants of the pace of innovation in the industrial sector earlier critiques of trade policies encouraging the development of the industrial sector in developing countries ignored these spillovers they argued in effect that korea would always have a comparative advantage in growing rice therefore it was foolish for it to try to restrict imports of industrial goods even if by so doing productivity in the industrial goods sector was increased it could never catch up so the protection would have to be permanent year after year the country would have been better off if it simply specialized in its own comparative advantage growing rice korea could and did catch up however at least in certain areas if catch up is possible then dynamic comparative advantage differs from static comparative advantage but even if korea s comparative advantage remained in agriculture industrial protection might be desirable because by supporting it one might have a more dynamic agricultural traditional sector trade restrictions enhance the size of the industrial sector the benefits spill over to the rural sector and national income grows at a possibly far faster pace after presenting the model we explain why the underlying hypotheses are plausible and argue that the model is broadly consistent with historical experience and empirical evidence

on the effectiveness of capital controls the experience of colombia during the 1990s abstract this paper analyzes the effectiveness of capital controls in colombia the evidence presented points towards a relative inability of the measures adopted to reduce the level of capital inflows nonetheless the evidence suggests that non remunerated deposits have been successful in inducing a recomposition of foreign liabilities in favor of long term maturities it is likely that this is a positive result as it has made the country less vulnerable to a reversal in capital flows in this sense controls may be viewed as an effective way of internalizing the negative externality imposed by short term maturities

cursed by resources or institutions natural resource abundant countries constitute both growth losers and growth winners and the main difference between the success cases and the cases of failure lays in the quality of institutions with grabber friendly institutions more natural resources push aggregate income down while with producer friendly institutions more natural resources increase income such a theory finds strong support in data a key question we also discuss is if resources in addition alter the quality of institutions when that is the case countries with bad institutions suffer a double resource curse as the deterioration of institutions strenghtens the negative effect of more natural resources

the dutch disease and the technological gap abstract i present a theory explaining why less technologically advanced countries could be more vulnerable to the dutch disease in a bilateral trade model with monopolistic competition and increasing returns to scale the extent of the crowding out in the tradable sector depends positively on an interaction between the amount of revenues from natural resources exports and the productivity gap vis a vis the trade partners with learning by doing the mechanism is self reinforcing leading to a productivity divergence pattern the predictions of the model are consistent with cross country empirical evidence

real exchange rate policies for economic development abstract this paper analyzes the role of real exchange rate rer policies in promoting economic development markets provide a suboptimal amount of investment in sectors characterized by learning spillovers we show that a stable and competitive rer policy may correct for this externality and other related market failures the resulting development of these sectors leads to overall faster economic growth a system of effectively multiple exchange rates is required when spillovers across different tradable sectors differ the impact of rer policies is increased when they are complemented by traditional industrial policies that increase the elasticity of the aggregate supply to the rer among the instruments required to implement a stable and competitive rer are interventions in the foreign exchange market and regulation of capital flows we also discuss the trade offs associated with alternative stable and competitive rer policies and the relationship between the use of exchange rate policies for macro stability and for development

the transformation of competitive advantage in east asia an analysis of technological and trade specialisation summary in recent years there has been considerable interest in the relationship between a country s export competitiveness and the role played by technology in strengthening and maintaining competitive advantage a central feature of recent empirical work mainly focused on the oecd countries has rested on examining patterns of export and technological specialization between economies and sectors this paper moves attention away from the advanced industrialized economies to examine the trends for trade and technological specialization among the east asian developing economies in particular two aspects of specialization are examined first to what extent have patterns of competitive advantage changed over time and second to measure the relationship between patterns of trade and technological specialization important differences are found in the patterns of specialization and in the relationship between them among the advanced east asian economies and those catching up

dutch disease and the oil boom and bust this paper examines the impact of the oil price boom in the 1970s and the subsequent bust on non oil economic activity in oil dependent countries during the boom manufacturing exports and output increased significantly relative to non oil countries these measures decreased gradually during the bust and subsequent period of low prices displaying a positive relationship with oil prices however exports of agricultural products sharply decreased during the boom imports of all types of goods displayed strong pro cyclicality with respect to oil prices the results suggest that increased local demand and investment spillovers from the windfall resulted in increased manufacturing activity

institutions and the resource curse countries rich in natural resources constitute both growth losers and growth winners we claim that the main reason for these diverging experiences is differences in the quality of institutions more natural resources push aggregate income down when institutions are grabber friendly while more resources raise income when institutions are producer friendly we test this theory building on sachs and warner s influential works on the resource curse our main hypothesis that institutions are decisive for the resource curse is confirmed our results contrast the claims of sachs and warner that institutions do not play a role

dutch disease and the mitigation effect of migration evidence from canadian provinces this article evaluates whether immigration can mitigate the dutch disease effects associated with booms in natural resource sectors we derive predicted changes in the size of the non tradable sector from a small general equilibrium model a la obstfeld rogoff using data for canadian provinces we find evidence that aggregate immigration mitigates the increase in the size of the non tradable sector in booming regions the mitigation effect is due mostly to interprovincial migration and temporary foreign workers there is no evidence of such an effect for permanent international immigration interprovincial migration also results in a spreading effect of dutch disease from booming to non booming provinces

can we insure against political uncertainty evidence from the u s stock market i show that shares currently traded on u s stock markets can be used to hedge political uncertainty focusing on the 2000 u s presidential election i construct two presidential portfolios composed of selected stocks anticipated to fare differently under a bush versus a gore presidency to construct these portfolios i use data on campaign contributions by publicly traded corporations and identify the major contributors on each side using daily observations for the six months before the election took place i show that the excess returns of these portfolios with respect to overall market movements are significantly related to changes in electoral polls

a note on the optimum subsidy to a learning industry abstract the existing results on the optimum subsidy to an infant industry engaged in learning by doing are of little use to policy makers because they provide no practical means of computing the level of that subsidy in part because one typically has no data with which to estimate the learning function until after the learning process is over using both the now standard analysis of bardhan 1971 and a generalization that allows for a non constant marginal utility of consumption this note demonstrates that the optimum subsidy must always be less than the rate that would completely make up for the productivity disadvantage of the infant industry relative to the efficient foreign producer to compute this ceiling rate it would be sufficient to know for example current factor prices and the foreign producer s cost function simulations show that for reasonable parameter values a naive second best policy that sets the subsidy rate equal to its ceiling value at all times not only improves on a policy of laissez faire but also consistently captures more than three quarters of the benefits of the optimum subsidy policy

a ricardian model with a continuum of goods under nonhomothetic preferences demand complementarities income distribution and north south trade this paper develops a ricardian model of trade in which goods are indexed according to priority and higher indexed goods are consumed only by richer households south north has a comparative advantage in lower higher indexed goods and hence specializes in goods with lower higher income elasticities of demand product cycles and a southern terms of trade deterioration result from faster population growth and uniform productivity growth in south and a global productivity improvement south s domestic income redistribution policy can improve its terms of trade so much that every household in south may be better off at the expense of north

economics of development and the development of economics the purpose of this paper is to restore some historical perspective by highlighting the many contributions of development economics to the rest of economics we will point out to the younger generations how some of the glittering ideas they currently play with originally came from that now neglected field and how in some cases they have rediscovered with great fanfare insights that were well known in the development literature familiarity with which would have enriched their own work

the importance of the volatility risk premium for volatility forecasting in this paper we study the role of the volatility risk premium for the forecasting performance of implied volatility we introduce a non parametric and parsimonious approach to adjust the model free implied volatility for the volatility risk premium and implement this methodology using more than 20 years of options and futures data on three major energy markets using regression models and statistical loss functions we find compelling evidence to suggest that the risk premium adjusted implied volatility significantly outperforms other models including its unadjusted counterpart our main finding holds for different choices of volatility estimators and competing time series models underlying the robustness of our results

centralized bargaining and reorganized work are they compatible the paper examines the implications for wage bargaining of an important aspect of the ongoing reorganization of work the move from occupational specialization toward multi tasking the analysis shows how on account of such reorganization centralized bargaining becomes increasingly ine cient and detrimental to rms pro t opportunities since it prevents rms from o ering their employees adequate incentives to perform the appropriate mix of tasks the paper also shows how centralized bargaining inhibits rms from using wages to induce workers to learn how to use their experience from one set of tasks to enhance their performance at other tasks in this way the paper may also help explain the increasing resistance to centralized bargaining in various advanced market economies 2001 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

agricultural productivity and structural transformation evidence from brazil we study the eects of the adoption of new agricultural technologies on structural transfor mation to guide empirical work we present a simple model where the eect of agricultural productivity on industrial development depends on the factor bias of technical change we test the predictions of the model by studying the introduction of genetically engineered soybean seeds in brazil which had heterogeneous eects on agricultural productivity across areas with dierent soil and weather characteristics we nd that technical change in soy production was strongly labor saving and lead to industrial growth as predicted by the model

horizontal diversification in the danish national system of innovation the case of pharmaceuticals abstract the importance of advanced users in home markets as an inducement to technological innovation is now well recognised thereby providing an explanation for important parts of international export specialisation at the theoretical level upstream downstream interaction has been made the generic micro foundation of theories of national systems of innovation however this paper will argue that user producer interaction is not the only country specific inducement mechanism to innovation rather the finding of this paper is in line with the proposition that when firms are science based linkages tend to be horizontal rather than vertical the paper mobilises historical and bibliometric methods to trace the long term development of technology at the danish pharmaceutical company novo nordisk and its links with the local particularly university environment the paper demonstrates the importance of science based competencies in moving from natural resource based technologies to those of greater sophistication thereby influencing trade specialisation of advanced countries

resource curse or not a question of appropriability this thesis presents three self contained essays focusing on empirical questions in growth and development economics each article addresses specific questions on why countries perform differently in particular i analyse the effect of democracy on economic development the relationship between natural resources and growth and the efficiency of foreign development assistance in the first essay democracy consolidation and growth i analyse the effect of democracy on economic growth in this context i argue that an important aspect to consider is how consolidated political systems are put simply i find that it is not only a question of how democratic countries are but also how long they have been democratic in other words economic performance tends to improve with the duration of uninterrupted democracy the performance of autocracies on the other hand tends to deteriorate over time however for newly established political systems there seems to be a cost of being democratic this implies that democracies only bear their fruit after some time the analysis has important policy implications to overcome initial straits international assistance focused on democratic consolidation may be important and a very good investment in fostering long run development the second essay resource curse or not a question of appropriability together with anne boschini and jesper roine is concerned with the relation between natural resources and economic development for most laymen as well as for most economists it would seem reasonable that countries richly endowed in natural resources also benefit from this wealth however a large literature has found a systematic negative effect of natural resource abundance on economic growth we suggest that this so called resource curse is not determined by resource endowments alone but rather by the interaction between the type of resources a country possesses and the quality of institutions in the country this combination of factors determines what we call the appropriability of a resource the concept of appropriability captures the likelihood of natural resources leading to rentseeking corruption or conflicts which in turn will harm economic development our results suggest that if institutions are good enough the curse may be turned into a blessing this may explain why some countries such as norway and botswana tend to benefit from their resources while others such as angola and sierra leone do not the third and final essay of this thesis foreign sectoral aid fungibility growth and poverty reduction is a contribution to the aid efficiency literature which is concerned with the question of whether aid helps or hinders economic development foreign development assistance is often targeted on specific public expenditure sectors if this aid is not used in the sector for which it was granted e g health education it is said to be fungible and donors may end up financing something completely different from what they intended e g military expenditures the major concern about sectoral fungibility is that the alternative use of aid may be less productive or less socially useful however measuring fungibility is not sufficient to determine whether foreign sectoral aid fungibility is actually harmful what is important is how the funds treated as fungible are used the essay starts by obtaining estimates of fungibility for 57 countries the results suggest that sectoral aid is indeed largely treated as fungible by recipient countries next to assess the economic and health effects of fungibility these estimates are incorporated into an empirical model of aid and growth as well as into a model of aid and infant mortality altogether i find no evidence of more fungible sectoral aid leading to worse performance

learning to love the dutch disease evidence from the mineral economies abstract recent literature proposes that a booming minerals sector may not only lead to dutch disease effects it may also be a development curse mineral economy case studies have tentatively confirmed this recourse curse thesis this paper examines the long run economic and development performance of a more general grouping of mineral based economies and finds little corroborating evidence

resource shocks and human capital stocks brain drain or brain gain abstract based on the paradox of plenty resource abundant countries tend to be vulnerable for lower economic prosperity along with instable political institutions as well as corruption this paper sheds light on the relationship between resource abundance and the selectivity of migration first i combine a dutch disease model with a roy borjas model in order to elaborate on the relationship between resource shocks and migrant selectivity theoretically thereby i predict that resource booms give rise to brain drain effects which are mediated through distributional effects under certain conditions second i provide empirical evidence for the effect of resource shocks on migrant selectivity based on a structural equation model in order to disentangle effects on income inequality and migrant selectivity the results show that resource shocks especially oil booms strengthen brain drain effects in a sample with 116 source and 23 destination countries between 1910 and 2009

us presidential elections and implied volatility the role of political uncertainty abstract this paper focuses on the effects of political uncertainty and the political process on implied stock market volatility during us presidential election cycles using monthly iowa electronic markets data over five elections we document that stock market uncertainty as measured by the vix volatility index increases along with positive changes in the probability of success of the eventual winner the association between implied volatility and the election probability of the eventual winner is positive even after controlling for changes in overall election uncertainty these findings indicate that the presidential election process engenders market anxiety as investors form and revise their expectations regarding future macroeconomic policy

demographic transition in resource rich countries a blessing or a curse summary this study argues that resource wealth is a key factor for understanding income effects of demographic transition we develop a simple model highlighting how the income effect of increased labor supply may depend on resource rents and provide empirical evidence that support the theoretical predictions using panel data covering the period from 1982 to 2006 for more than 120 countries we find a negative interaction effect between resource wealth and demographic transition on national income moreover the negative interaction effect does not depend on institutional quality and is found also across different samples

temporary controls on capital inflows abstract during the past decade a number of countries imposed capital controls that had two distinguishing features they were asymmetric in that they were designed principally to discourage capital inflows and they were temporary this paper studies formally the consequences of these policies calibrates their potential effectiveness and assesses their welfare implications in an environment in which the level of capital inflows can be sub optimal in addition motivated by the fact that these types of controls have often been left in place after the dissipation of the shock that lead to the controls being implemented the paper evaluates the welfare cost of procrastination in removing these types of controls

learning by doing and the dutch disease this paper develops a model of learning by doing and the dutch disease that extends the earlier literature in two ways first it is assumed that both the traded and the non traded sector can contribute to learning second it is assumed that there are learning spillovers between the sectors it is shown that within such a model a foreign exchange gift results in a real exchange rate depreciation in the long run due to a shift in the steady state relative productivity between the traded and the non traded sector in contrast to standard models of the dutch disease production and productivity in both sectors may go up or down the conditions for the different cases are worked out

oil price shocks sectoral and dynamic adjustments in a small open developed and oil exporting economy the recent uptrend in oil prices represents both an opportunity and a challenge for small open developed and oil exporting countries using canada as a study case and in contrast to most studies that use aggregate models this paper employs a multi sector intertemporal general equilibrium model to provide perspectives on the sectoral aggregate and dynamic adjustments of a sustained increase in oil prices it highlights the transmission channels through which the rise in oil prices affects the domestic economy the simulation results suggest that the shock would have positive aggregate impacts but would also spur the reallocation of resources and would therefore induce disparities in sectoral adjustments the suggested contraction in some industries could not however be attributed to a pure dutch disease phenomenon because of among other factors the cost push effect induced by the increase in oil prices

boom or gloom examining the dutch disease in two speed economies traditional studies of the dutch disease do not account for productivity spillovers between the booming resource sector and other domestic sectors we put forward a simple theory model that allows for such spillovers we then identify and quantify these spillovers using a bayesian dynamic factor model the model allows for resource movements and spending effects through a large panel of variables while also identifying disturbances to other shocks using australia and norway as representative cases studies we find that a booming resource sector has substantial productivity spillovers on non resource sectors effects that have not been captured in previous analysis

does the alternative investment market nurture firm growth a comparison between listed and private companies the creation of stock market segments with low admission requirements was welcomed in the 1990s as an essential move to release small and medium sized enterprises from their dependency on banks for external funding thereby removing the financial barriers that hinder their growth and competitiveness but does easier access to public equity really translate into superior real performance we explore this issue by focusing on the alternative investment market aim a junior segment of the london stock exchange that has experienced long lasting growth in capitalization

tools for managing financial stability risks from capital inflows abstract we examine whether macroprudential policies and capital controls can enhance financial stability in the face of the risks typically associated with large capital inflows we construct new indices of foreign currency fx related prudential measures domestic prudential measures and financial sector specific capital controls for 51 emerging market economies over the period 1995 2008 our results indicate that both capital controls and fx related prudential measures are associated with a lower proportion of fx lending in total domestic bank credit and with a lower proportion of portfolio debt in total external liabilities other prudential policies appear to help restrain the intensity of aggregate credit booms experience from the global financial crisis suggests that prudential and capital control policies in place during the boom enhanced economic resilience during the bust

the division of labor coordination costs and knowledge this paper considers specialization and the division of labor a more extensive division of labor raises productivity because returns to the time spent on tasks are usually greater to workers who concentrate on a narrower range of skills the traditional discussion of the division of labor emphasizes the limitations to specialization imposed by the extent of the market we claim that the degree of specialization is more often determined by other considerations especially emphasized are various costs of coordinating specialized workers who perform complementary tasks and the amount of general knowledge available