bureaucratic minimal squawk behavior theory and evidence from regulatory agencies this paper develops a model in which a desire to avoid criticism prompts otherwise public spirited bureaucrats to behave inefficiently decisions are taken to keep interest groups quiet and to keep mistakes out of the public eye the policy implications of this minimal squawk behavior are at odds with the view that agencies should be structured to minimize the threat of capture an empirical test using data from us state public utility commissions rejects the capture hypothesis and is consistent with the squawk hypothesis longer puc terms of office are associated with a higher incidence of rate reviews and lower household electricity bills jel d73 l51 l97 l98

optimal investments in power generation under centralized and decentralized decision making this work presents a novel model for optimization of investments in new power generation under uncertainty the model can calculate optimal investment strategies under both centralized social welfare and decentralized profit objectives the power market is represented with linear supply and demand curves a stochastic dynamic programming algorithm is used to solve the investment problem where uncertainty in demand is represented as a discrete markov chain the stochastic dynamic model allows us to evaluate investment projects in new base and peak load power generation as real options and determine optimal timing of the investments in a case study we use the model to compare optimal investment strategies under centralized and decentralized decision making a number of interesting results follow by varying the assumptions about market structure and price response on the demand side

testing for nonlinear dependence in daily foreign exchange rates the purpose of this article is to investigate whether daily changes in five major foreign exchange rates contain any nonlinearities although the data contain no linear correlation evidence indicates the presence of substantial nonlinearity in a multiplicative rather than additive form further examination reveals that a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model can explain a large part of the nonlinearities for all five exchange rates copyright 1989 by the university of chicago

nonlinearities in economic dynamics two reasons that led to the dominance of the linear stochastic difference equations approach the first one was the fact that the nonlinear systems seemed incapable of reproducing the statistical aspects of actual economic time series at best such models were able to produce periodic motion1 and an examination of the spectra of economic time series showed the absence of the spikes that characterise periodic data the emphasis on the equilibrium approach to aggregate economic behaviour cf lucas i 986 would make things even more difficult the plethora of stability results for models of infinitely lived agents with perfect foresight turnpike theorems suggested that even the regular fluctuations that had been derived in the literature on endogenous business cycles were incompatible with a theory that had solid microeconomic foundations further this indicated that while nonlinearities could be present the explanations of the fluctuations had to rest solely on the presence of exogenous shocks that working through the equilibrating mechanism would create the observed randomness if such shocks were absent the system would tend to a stationary state the second reason was the empirical success of the models based on linear stochastic difference equations low order autoregressive processes captured some of the features of aggregate time series in turn these processes can in principle result from an economy with complete markets where production is subject to exogenous shocks though the task of confronting these equilibrium models with actual data has not yielded uncontroversial results see the discussion and references in section i there was no obvious gain in the

the nonlinear time series properties of unemployment rates some further evidence the time series properties of unemployment rates for germany japan the uk and the us are re examined evidence of nonlinear structure in the residuals of the most parsimonious linear arma models is reported for all countries except japan modelling this nonlinearity using setar models suggests strong asymmetry in unemployment dynamics and the presence of a possible limit cycle for the uk however residual diagnostics for these models indicate remaining structure alternative tar models conditioned on past growth rates of industrial production yield substantial reductions in residual variance over both linear and setar counterparts iid residuals in all cases other than the us and threshold values at or very near zero clearly identifying the asymmetric behaviour of unemployment during expansionary and contractionary phases of the business cycle

further evidence on the asymmetric behavior of economic time series over the business cycle evidence has recently been presented by salih neftci to support the hypothesis that recessions in economic activity tend to be steeper and more short lived than recoveries in economic activity that evidence however was confined to the behavior of the unemployment rate in the united states in this paper it is shown that when neftci s methods are applied to analyze the behavior of real gross national product investment and productivity in the united states or when they are used to analyze industrial production abroad the asymmetry hypothesis seems to be less compelling

media markets and localism does local news en espanol boost hispanic voter turnout the same time the availability of these products reduces the consumption of local news not only because some consumers prefer national and global content to local information but also because local media products that lose a significant number of consumers are forced to cut qual ity and they may even cease to exist if their audience falls below a critical threshold for these reasons some scholars claim that the rise of integrated media markets undermines local civic engagement robert d putnam 2000 against this backdrop many regulatory agencies including the federal communications commission fcc of the united states seek to protect local media and promote localism for instance by limiting ownership concentration 1 however localism is desirable only if there are in fact positive spillovers from the provision of local content that can help justify the loss of private welfare that integrated media markets would provide in this paper we propose a simple test for the existence of spillovers from local news pro gramming asking if the presence of local television news affects civic behavior the ubiq uity of local news programming across all us metro areas makes it impossible to study its effects on the general population in contrast the availability of spanish language news has increased considerably in recent years providing us with an experiment to study the effect of local news on one important measure of civic engagement voter turnout in local elections in particular we use a differencing approach asking whether hispanic voter turnout is higher in relation to non hispanic turnout in metro areas with spanish language local television news our results indicate that spanish language local television news raises hispanic turnout by more than 4 percentage points local news targeted at hispanics has no effect on the participa tion of non hispanics and as one would expect a significantly smaller effect in years with a presidential race in markets with spanish language news about a quarter of hispanics turn to these programs our estimates thus imply that news in spanish caused about a fifth of spanish language news viewers to start voting interestingly hispanics with access to news in spanish do not increase the time they spend watching news content analyses of spanish language news programs in the united states find that these shows are much more likely to report on

simple mechanisms and preferences for honesty we consider full implementation in complete information environments when agents have an arbitrarily small preference for honesty we offer a condition called separable punishment and show that when it holds and there are at least two agents any social choice function can be implemented by a simple mechanism in two rounds of iterated deletion of strictly dominated strategies

estimating the impact of the hajj religion and tolerance in islam s global gathering we estimate the impact on pilgrims of performing the hajj pilgrimage to mecca our method compares successful and unsuccessful applicants in a lottery used by pakistan to allocate hajj visas pilgrim accounts stress that the hajj leads to a feeling of unity with fellow muslims but outsiders have sometimes feared that this could be accompanied by antipathy toward non muslims we find that participation in the hajj increases observance of global islamic practices such as prayer and fasting while decreasing participation in localized practices and beliefs such as the use of amulets and dowry it increases belief in equality and harmony among ethnic groups and islamic sects and leads to more favorable attitudes toward women including greater acceptance of female education and employment increased unity within the islamic world is not accompanied by antipathy toward non muslims instead hajjis show increased belief in peace and in equality and harmony among adherents of different religions the evidence suggests that these changes are likely due to exposure to and interaction with hajjis from around the world rather than to a changed social role of pilgrims upon return

transparency and economic policy we provide a two period model of political competition in which voters imperfectly observe the electoral promises made to other voters imperfect observability generates an incentive for candidates to offer excessive transfers even if voters are homogeneous and taxation is distortionary government spending is larger than in a world of perfect observability transfers are partly financed through government debt and the size of the debt is higher in less transparent political systems the model provides an explanation of fiscal churning it also predicts that groups whose transfers are less visible to others receive higher transfers and that imperfect transparency of transfers may lead to underprovision of public goods from the policy perspective the main novelty of our analysis is a separate evaluation of the transparency of spending and the transparency of revenues we show that the transparency of the political system does not unambiguously improve efficiency transparency of spending is beneficial but transparency of revenues can be counterproductive because it endogenously leads to increased wasteful spending

threshold effects in the patent growth relationship a pstr approach for 60 developed and developing countries this study analyzes whether there is a threshold effect in the innovation growth relationship using data from the period 2008 2017 we perform an analysis using 60 countries in the whole sample an

media competition and electoral politics we build a framework linking competition in the media market to political participation media outlets report on the ability of candidates running for office and compete for audience through their choice of slant citizens consume news only if the expected utility of being informed about candidates ability is sufficiently large for their group collectively our results can reconcile seemingly contradictory empirical evidence showing that entry in the media market can either increase or decrease turnout while information pushes up independent turnout partisans adjust their turnout to the ability of their preferred candidate and on average they vote less when informed

political economy of public policies insights from distortions to agricultural and food markets the agricultural and food sector is an ideal case for investigating the political economy of public policies many of the policy developments in this sector since the 1950s have been sudden and transformational while others have been gradual but persistent this paper reviews and synthesizes the literature on trends and fluctuations in market distortions and the political economy explanations that have been advanced based on a rich global data set covering a half century of evidence on commodities countries and policy instruments the paper identifies hypotheses that have been explored in the literature on the extent of market distortions and the conditions under which reform may be feasible

threshold nonlinearities in unemployment rates further evidence for the uk and g3 economies the paper appraises the in sample and out of sample adequacy of linear ar and nonlinear setar models of unemployment rates for germany japan the uk and the us tests are reported for the presence and specification of threshold nonlinearities setar model estimates limiting dynamic properties and residual diagnostics and out of sample forecasting performance in sample threshold non linearities are confirmed to be strongly present for the uk us and germany and more marginally so for japan out of sample excepting japan setar models provide superior onestep ahead forecast on rmse grounds most notably for the us final tests indicate that these models exhibit predictive accuracy in the sense of parameter and residual variance stability implying the potential for exploitation of such nonlinearity in official forecasting

social incentives and voter turnout evidence from the swiss mail ballot system this paper uses a natural experiment to document the impact of social pressure on voting behavior the main hypothesis is that social pressure creates incentives to vote for the purpose of being seen at the voting act this incentive is particularly high in small and close knit communities empirically i analyze the effect of postal voting on voter participation in switzerland optional postal voting decreased the voting costs but simultaneously removed the social pressure to vote in spite of the large reduction in voting costs the effect on aggregate turnout was small however voter participation was more negatively affected in the smaller communities this lends support to the view that social incentives played a role for certain people s voting decisions jel h0 z13

when does it take a nixon to go to china substantial policy changes like market oriented reforms by populist parties and steps towards peace by hawks are sometimes implemented by unlikely parties to account for such episodes this paper develops a framework in which incumbent politicians have better information about the state of the world than voters the incumbent is unable to credibly transmit all this information since voters are also imperfectly informed about his ideology the paper identifies conditions under which an incumbent party s electoral prospects increase the more atypical the policy it proposes popular support for a policy or its credibility depends on the policymaker policy pair copyright 1998 by american economic association

the principle of minimum differentiation holds under sufficient heterogeneity the so called principle of minimum differentiation stated by hotelling has been challenged by many authors this paper restores the principle by showing that n firms locate at the center of the market and charge prices higher than the marginal cost of production when heterogeneity in consumers tastes is large enough

asymmetric employment cycles in britain evidence and an explanation search and matching models imply that firms employment adjustment costs depend on the tightness of the labor market giving rise to endogenous or nonlinear dynamics in employment this paper sets this argument out in detail estimating a model simultaneously explaining the long run level of employment and the nonlinear dynamics one of the implications of the estimated model is that asymmetric business cycles occur with the downswing in employment being sharper and deeper than the upswing copyright 1992 by royal economic society

how does peer pressure affect educational investments when effort is observable to peers students may try to avoid social penalties by conforming to prevailing norms to test this hypothesis we first consider a natural experiment that introduced a performance leaderboard into computer based high school courses the result was a 24 percent performance decline the decline appears to be driven by a desire to avoid the leaderboard top performing students prior to the change those most at risk of appearing on the leaderboard had a 40 percent performance decline while poor performing students improved slightly we next consider a field experiment that offered students complimentary access to an online sat preparatory course sign up forms differed randomly across students only in whether they said the decision would be kept private from classmates in nonhonors classes sign up was 11 percentage points lower when decisions were public rather than private honors class sign up was unaffected for students taking honors and nonhonors classes the response depended on which peers they were with at the time of the offer and thus to whom their decision would be revealed when offered the course in a nonhonors class where peer sign up rates are low they were 15 percentage points less likely to sign up if the decision was public but when offered the course in an honors class where peer sign up rates are high they were 8 percentage points more likely to sign up if the decision was public thus students are highly responsive to their peers are the prevailing norm when they make decisions

a theory of participation in elections we analyze a model of participation in elections in which voting is costly and no vote is pivotal ethical agents are motivated to participate when they determine that agents of their type are obligated to do so unlike previous duty based models of participation in our model an ethical agent s obligation to vote is determined endogenously as a function of the behavior of other agents our model predicts high turnout and comparative statics that are consistent with strategic behavior jel d72

do regimes matter epistemic communities and mediterranean pollution control international regimes have received increasing attention in the literature on international relations however little attention has been systematically paid to how compliance with them has been achieved an analysis of the mediterranean action plan a coordinated effort to protect the mediterranean sea from pollution shows that this regime actually served to empower a group of experts members of an epistemic community who were then able to redirect their governments toward the pursuit of new objectives acting in an effective transnational coalition these new actors contributed to the development of convergent state policies in compliance with the regime and were also effective in promoting stronger and broader rules for pollution control this suggests that in addition to providing a form of order in an anarchic international political system regimes may also contribute to governmental learning and influence patterns of behavior by empowering new groups who are able to direct their governments toward new ends

informative cheap talk in elections why do office motivated politicians sometimes espouse views that are non congruent with their electorate s can non congruent statements convey any information about what a politician will do if elected and if so why would voters elect a politician who makes such statements furthermore can electoral campaigns also directly affect an elected official s behaviour we develop a model of credible cheap talk costless and non binding communication in elections the foundation is an endogenous voter preference for a politician who is known to be non congruent over one whose congruence is sufficiently uncertain this preference arises because uncertainty about an elected official s policy preferences generates policymaking distortions due to reputation career concerns we show that cheap talk can alter the electorate s beliefs about a politician s policy preferences and thereby affect the elected official s behaviour informative cheap talk can increase or decrease voter welfare with a greater scope for welfare benefits when reputation concerns are more important

nation building through foreign intervention evidence from discontinuities in military strategies this study uses discontinuities in u s strategies employed during the vietnam war to estimate their causal impacts it identifies the effects of bombing by exploiting rounding thresholds in an algorithm used to target air strikes bombing increased the military and political activities of the communist insurgency weakened local governance and reduced noncommunist civic engagement the study also exploits a spatial discontinuity across neighboring military regions that pursued different counterinsurgency strategies a strategy emphasizing overwhelming firepower plausibly increased insurgent attacks and worsened attitudes toward the u s and south vietnamese government relative to a more hearts and minds oriented approach

business cycle asymmetry a deeper look this paper distinguishes two types of asymmetry in business cycles deepness and steepness deepness is defined as the characteristic that troughs are further below trend than peaks are above most previous research has focused exclusively on steepness which refers to cycles in which contractions are steeper than expansions a test for deepness is proposed and applied to u s post war quarterly unemployment real gnp and industrial production evidence of deepness is found for unemployment and industrial production while the evidence for real gnp is weaker previous evidence of steepness in unemployment is confirmed

informative advertising with differentiated products in this paper we study the role of promotional expenditures by sellers in a model of product differentiation advertising conveys full and accurate information about the characteristics of products heterogeneous consumers who have no source of information other than advertisements seek to purchase the products that best fit their needs despite the roles played by advertising in improving the matching of products and consumers and in increasing the elasticity of demand faced by each firm we find that the market determined levels of advertising are excessive given the extent of diversity in the market we derive a promotional equilibrium based on a specific information transmission technology paying explicit attention to the structure of consumer information and its impact on firms demand curves this allows us to study the effects of changes in the advertising technology including an increased ability to target messages to specific groups of consumers on the equilibrium in the product market we find that decreased advertising costs may reduce profits by increasing the severity of price competition

concentration and self censorship in commercial media within a simple model of non localized hotelling type competition among arbitrary numbers of media outlets we characterize quality and content of media under dierent ownership structures assuming advertising sponsored prot maximizing outlets we show that i topics sensitive to advertisers can be underreported self censored by all outlets in the market ii self censorship increases with the concentration of ownership iii adding outlets while keeping the number of owners xed may even increase self censorship the latter result relies on consumers most preferred outlets being potentially owned by the same media companies we argue that externalities resulting from self censorship could be empirically large

salience and consumer choice we present a theory of context dependent choice in which a consumer s attention is drawn to salient attributes of goods such as quality or price an attribute is salient for a good when it stands out among the good s attributes relative to that attribute s average level in the choice set or more broadly the choice context consumers attach disproportionately high weight to salient attributes and their choices are tilted toward goods with higher quality price ratios the model accounts for a variety of disparate evidence including decoy effects and context dependent willingness to pay it also suggests a novel theory of misleading sales

environmental protection a theory of direct and indirect competition for political influence how is it that environmental groups can have a strong impact on environmental policy but without much lobbying this paper develops a model of direct lobbying the government and indirect persuading the public competition for political influence and finds that they are complementary however an increase in the effectiveness of public persuasion or a rise of public environmental awareness induces substitution between the two the findings establish that the empirical phenomenon of lack of political contribution from environmental groups may not be related to financial constraints but to their greater effectiveness in public persuasion and growing public environmental awareness the size of its economic stake and hence the associated lobbying effort and the efficiency of its organization in exerting political influence how then can we explain why some environmental groups have been very successful against polluting industries when the latter s economic stakes seem very high and they lobby more and their interests are more efficiently organized some might suggest that the reason for the success of the environmental movement is that environmental groups have large memberships and can provide block votes 2 however according to olson 1965 a large membership of an interest group is not necessarily an advantage and it is still uncertain whether environmental groups are able to mobilize their members to cast votes based on such affiliations this paper suggests an alternative explanation by developing a theory of direct and indirect competition between special interests for political influence rather than marshalling block votes a primary feature of our framework is that two opposing interest groups an environmentalist group and an industrialist group compete directly and indirectly for political influence in a three stage game the indirect competition takes place in the first stage in which interest groups exert effort in persuading the public to indirectly influence government policy the direct competition takes place in the second stage in which interest groups exert effort in

mass media and public policy abstract if more informed voters receive favorable policies then mass media should influence policy because it provides most of the information people use in voting this paper uses a simple model to analyze the effect of mass media provision of news on a number of policy issues redistribution the size of the government sector rents and corruption the effectiveness of lobby groups and political business cycles it is easy to deal with such a wide range of issues because existing models of political competition often include informed and uniformed voters modelling mass media simply endogenizes who is informed and who is not the paper also discusses empirical evidence and point to areas for future research

is the business cycle characterized by deterministic chaos abstract tests are conducted on u s macroeconomic data for the presence of low dimensional deterministic chaos where deterministic chaos is defined as in grandmont s 1985 walras bowley lecture or in brock 1986 the idea is to test for evidence of endogenous instability causing the business cycle low order autoregressions are hard to reject with our methods evidence of chaos is weak but our tests may be too weak to detect it evidence of nonlinearity is present in employment 1950 i to 1983 iv unemployment 1949 i to 1982 iv monthly post war industrial production and pig iron production 1877 1937

balanced budget redistribution as the outcome of political competition this paper models balanced budget redistribution between socio economic groups as the outcome of electoral competition between two political parties equilibrium is unique in the present model and a sufficient condition for existence is given requiring that there be enough stochastic heterogeneity with respect to party preferences in the electorate the validity of hotelling s principle of minimum differentiation and of director s law are examined under alternative hypotheses concerning administrative costs of redistributions and voter s possibilities both of abstaining from voting and of becoming campaign activists for one of the parties the policy strategy of expected plurality maximization is contrasted with the strategy of maximizing the probability of gaining a plurality incomes are fixed and known so lump sum taxation is feasible however constraints on tax transfer differentiation between individuals are permitted in the analysis

are business cycles asymmetric a correction neftci 1984 proposed a nonparametric test procedure for determining whether business cycles are asymmetric in the sense that contractions are steeper than expansions he found evidence of this type of asymmetry in postwar quarterly u s unemployment variables this comment identifies a probable error in neftci s empirical work that reverses the significance of his results for the unemployment rate and it suggests that this test may have low power and be sensitive to measurement error

characteristics of the prices of operating reserves and regulation services in competitive electricity markets in this paper characteristics of the prices of reserves and regulation services in the ontario new york and ercot electricity markets are studied more specifically price variability price jumps long range correlation and non linearity of the prices are analyzed using the available measures in the literature for the ontario electricity market the prices of 10 min spinning 10 min non spinning and 30 min operating reserves for the period may 1 2002 to december 31 2007 are analyzed for the new york market prices of the same reserves plus regulation service are studied for the period february 5 2005 to december 31 2008 for the ercot market we analyze the prices of responsive reserve regulation up and regulation down services for the period january 1 2005 to december 31 2009 the studied characteristics of operating reserve and regulation prices are also compared with those of energy prices the findings of this paper show that the studied reserve and regulation prices feature extreme volatility more frequent jumps and spikes different peak price occurrence time and lower predictability compared to the energy prices

labor market concerns and support for immigration abstract do labor market concerns affect support for immigration using a large representative sample of the us population we first elicit beliefs about the labor market impact of immigration to generate exogenous variation in beliefs we then provide respondents in the treatment group with research evidence showing no adverse labor market impacts of immigration treated respondents update their beliefs and become more supportive of immigration as measured by self reported policy views and petition signatures treatment effects also persist in an obfuscated follow up study our results demonstrate that information about the labor market impact of immigration causally affects support for immigration

an information rationale for the power of special interests political decisions are often biased in favor of special interests at the expense of the general public and they are frequently inefficient in the sense that the losses incurred by the majority exceed the gains enjoyed by the minority this article explains the bias in terms of information asymmetries and the free rider problem first incumbents increase their reelection prospects by biasing policy toward groups that are better able to monitor their activities second because smaller groups are better able to overcome the free rider problem of costly monitoring policy will be biased in their favor third the effect of asymmetric monitoring on voter welfare is ambiguous the inefficiencies created by the policy bias are offset by a positively valued selection bias incumbents of above average quality are more likely to survive voter scrutiny than are low quality types

costly search and recruiting a labor market model with costly search and recruiting is constructed it incorporates many features found in other models and provides new insights into the effects of externalities and transaction costs the model possesses a continuum of equilibria some of which may be pareto ranked with different rates of unemployment despite the multiplicity of equilibria comparative statics results are obtained copyright 1987 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

belief in a just world and redistributive politics international surveys reveal wide differences between the views held in different countries concerning the causes of wealth or poverty and the extent to which people are responsible for their own fate at the same time social ethnographies and experiments by psychologists demonstrate individuals recurrent struggle with cognitive dissonance as they seek to maintain and pass on to their children a view of the world where effort ultimately pays off and everyone gets their just deserts this paper offers a model that helps explain i why most people feel such a need to believe in a just world ii why this need and therefore the prevalence of the belief varies considerably across countries iii the implications of this phenomenon for international differences in political ideology levels of redistribution labor supply aggregate income and popular perceptions of the poor the model shows in particular how complementarities arise endogenously between individuals desired beliefs or ideological choices resulting in two equilibria a first american equilibrium is characterized by a high prevalence of just world beliefs among the population and relatively laissez faire policies the other european equilibrium is characterized by more pessimism about the role of effort in economic outcomes and a more extensive welfare state more generally the paper develops a theory of collective beliefs and motivated cognitions including those concerning money consumption and happiness as well as religion

on the efficient market diffusion of intermittent renewable energies abstract capacity costs of renewable energies have been decreasing dramatically and are expected to fall further making them more competitive with fossils building on an analytically tractable peak load pricing model we analyze how intermittency of renewable energies affects the market diffusion that results from these lower costs in particular once renewables have become competitive by attaining the same levelized cost of electricity lcoe as fossils the marginal increase in efficient capacities due to a further cost reduction varies substantially initially it is small then it rises but it falls again once renewable capacities are large enough to satisfy the whole electricity demand at times of high availability if external costs of fossils are internalized by a pigouvian tax then perfect competition leads to efficient investments in renewable and fossil capacities even though we assume that only a subgroup of consumers can adapt their demand to price fluctuations that are caused by the intermittency of renewables moreover fossils receive a capacity payment through the market for their reliability in serving demand of non reactive consumers maximum electricity prices rise with the share of renewables if regulators impose a price cap this initially raises investments in renewables but the effect may reverse if the share of renewables is large

mass media and special interest groups abstract media revenues are an important determinant of media behavior it is generally accepted that news coverage depends not only on the preferences of media consumers but also on the preferences of advertisers or subsidizing groups however existing models reach the opposite conclusions about the relationship between the profitability of advertising and media bias we present a theoretical model that reconciles these results the model shows that the sign of the effect of marginal costs of production or marginal advertising revenues on the level of distortion in news coverage depends on complementarity or substitutability between media bias and audience size for an interest group the existence of a budget constraint for an interest group and media outlets reliance on subscription in addition to advertising revenues

are economic time series asymmetric over the business cycle it has long been argued that major cyclical variables such as the unemployment rate display an asymmetric behavior over various phases of the business cycle the paper provides a statistical test for this hypothesis using the framework of finite state markov processes i implement a test to see if the behavior of the unemployment rate is characterized by sudden jumps and slower drops it is argued that the framework provided in the paper can also be used to test other sample path properties of economic time series

testing nonlinearities in economic growth in the oecd countries an evidence from setar and star models this study estimates the self exciting threshold autoregressive setar and smooth transition autoregressive star models and examines the nonlinear and regime switching dynamics of economic growth for a set of 10 oecd countries the null of linearity in setar model is tested using the recursive polynomial f test of tsay and the bootstrap based supremum average and exponential average lagrange multiplier lm tests of hansen the f test of tsay rejects the null of linearity for all the countries except spain and switzerland the setar model of hansen reinforces the evidence and suggests the rejection of linear model the star model rejects the null of linearity against star nonlinearity for all the countries except denmark and switzerland the sequential f tests for the conditional nulls suggest the lstar nonlinearity for australia belgium france sweden and uk and the estar nonlinearity for canada spain and the usa

characterizing nonlinearities in business cycles using smooth transition autoregressive models during the past few years investigators have found evidence indicating that various time series representing business cycles such as production and unemployment may be nonlinear in this paper it is assumed that if the time series is nonlinear then it can be adequately described by a smooth transition autoregressive star model the paper describes the application of these models to quarterly logarithmic production indices for 13 countries and europe tests reject linearity for most of these series and estimated star models indicate that the nonlinearity is needed mainly to describe the responses of production to large negative shocks such as oil price shocks

growing up in a recession does the historical macroeconomic environment affect preferences for redistribution we find that individuals who experienced a recession when young believe that success in life depends more on luck than effort support more government redistribution and tend to vote for left wing parties the effect of recessions on beliefs is long lasting we support our findings with evidence from three different datasets first we identify the effect of recessions on beliefs exploiting time and regional variation in macroeconomic conditions using data from the 1972 2010 general social survey our specifications control for nonlinear time period life cycle and cohort effects as well as a host of background variables second we rely on data from the national longitudinal survey of the high school class of 1972 to corroborate the age period cohort specification and look at heterogeneous effects of experiencing a recession during early adulthood third using data from the world value survey we confirm our findings with a sample of 37 countries whose citizens experienced macroeconomic disasters at different points in history

government control of the media abstract we present a formal model of government control of the media to illuminate variation in media freedom across countries and over time media bias is greater and state ownership of the media more likely when the government has a particular interest in mobilizing citizens to take actions that further some political objective but are not necessarily in citizens individual best interest however the distinction between state and private media is smaller large advertising markets reduce media bias in both state and private media but increase the incentive for the government to nationalize private media media bias in state and private media markets diverge as governments become more democratic whereas media bias in democracies and autocracies converge as positive externalities from mobilization increase

a theory of yes men this paper illustrates an incentive for workers to conform to the opinion of their supervisors when firms use subjective performance evaluation this desire to conform arises endogenously from the firm s need to induce the worker to exert effort the author shows that firms may optimally eschew the use of incentive contracts to retain workers incentives for honesty the author illustrates that the incentive to conform implies inefficiencies even when workers are risk neutral and is likely to lead to more centralized decision making than in the absence of the desire to conform copyright 1993 by american economic association

voter participation and strategic uncertainty the paradox of not voting is examined in a model where voters have uncertainty about the preferences and costs of other voters in game theoretic models of voter participation under complete information equilibrium outcomes can have substantial turnout even when voting costs are relatively high in contrast when uncertainty about preferences and costs is present only voters with negligible or negative net voting costs participate when the electorate is large

language meaning and games a model of communication coordination and evolution language is a powerful coordination device we generalize the cheap talk approach to pre play communication by way of introducing a meaning cor respondence between messages and actions and by postulating two axioms met by natural languages players have a lexicographic preference second to material payoffs against deviating from the meaning correspondence under two sided communication in generic and symmetric n 3 n coordination games a nash equilibrium component in such a lexicographic communication game is evolutionarily stable if and only if it results in the unique pareto efficient out come of the underlying game we extend the analysis to one sided communica tion in arbitrary finite two player games jel c72 c73 z 3

patents vs publications and r d three sides of the same coin panel smooth transition regression pstr for oecd and brics countries abstractthe paper aims to define the optimal thresholds of publications and research and development r d expenditure and to investigate their impacts on patenting in oecd and brics countries to

economics and identity this paper considers how identity a person s sense of self affects economic outcomes we incorporate the psychology and sociology of identity into an economic model of behavior in the utility function we propose identity is associated with different social categories and how people in these categories should behave we then construct a simple game theoretic model showing how identity can affect individual interactions the paper adapts these models to gender discrimination in the workplace the economics of poverty and social exclusion and the household division of labor in each case the inclusion of identity substantively changes conclusions of previous economic analysis

the demand for operating reserves key to price spikes and investment under regulation operating reserve policy and investment policy are completely separate in a market they are tightly linked through expectations currently regulators and engineers intervene in markets to determine how much will be paid when operating reserves are in short supply these prices largely determine the revenue stream that pays the capital costs of new peakers and pays an equal amount toward the capital costs of all other generators in this way operating reserve and price cap policies determine investment in generation and the equilibrium level of installed capacity typically ferc determines a price limit and engineers by setting an operating reserve requirement determine the expected duration of price spikes currently these policies are set without coordination and without analysis of the long run consequences

when managers cover their posteriors making the decisions the market wants to see the stock market has opinions as to what choices firms should make we show that concern for current share prices may lead managers to make these choices rather than those suggested by their own superior information even when arbitrarily many privately informed firms have to make a similar decision the market s prejudices may still prevail we compare the distortions that arise from share price maximization with those due to herd behavior among profit maximizing firms and show that the former results in strictly less efficient use of information

the economics of faith using an apocalyptic prophecy to elicit religious beliefs in the field abstract we model religious faith as a demand for beliefs following the logic of the pascalian wager we show how standard experimental interventions linking financial consequences to falsifiable religious statements can elicit and characterize beliefs we implemented this approach with members of a group that expected the end of the world to occur on may 21 2011 by varying monetary prizes payable before and after may 21st to our knowledge this is the first incentivized elicitation of religious beliefs ever conducted the results suggest that the members held extreme sincere beliefs that were unresponsive to experimental manipulations in price

resource adequacy reliability and the impacts of capacity subsidies in competitive electricity markets abstract motivated by recent interventions by the states of new jersey and maryland and the introduction of pjm s minimum offer price rule mopr for capacity markets we analyze the impact of subsidized government investments in electrical generation on electricity markets we extend the model of joskow and tirole 2007 to address the interconnected nature of the pjm grid by considering a market with two different locations connected by transmission lines we assume that these lines are constrained during peak periods in a manner similar to borenstein et al 2000 we find that government intervention has a significant potential for adverse effects on grid resource adequacy and reliability in our analysis subsidized investment in baseload capacity is never optimal in the short run government provision of base capacity displaces competitive base capacity which reduces the private provision of peak capacity in the long run the threat of intervention imposes costs on suppliers in the form of an expected regulatory taking as a result resource adequacy decreases in both markets if governments respond to this state of affairs by subsidizing further supply additions expectations of intervention are reinforced and competitive capacity supply further diminishes mopr attempts to mitigate this vicious cycle by screening out non economic bids for new capacity to the extent market participants view mopr as a credible policy it succeeds in this goal in this case subsidized capacity additions do not perturb the efficiency of market outcomes as long as any charges to consumers to support the subsidy are lump sum in nature in this case subsidized resources simply succeed in capturing rents from taxpayers

pandering to persuade a principal chooses one of multiple projects or an outside option an agent is privately informed about the projects benets and shares the principal s preferences except for not internalizing her value from the outside option we show that for moderate outside option values strategic communication is characterized by pandering the agent biases his recommendation toward conditionally better looking projects even when both parties would be better o with some other project a project that has lower expected value can be conditionally better looking we develop some comparative statics of pandering pandering is also induced by an optimal mechanism without transfers

rational expectations business cycles in search equilibrium we examine the rational expectations equilibrium paths of the model of search and barter in diamond s aggregate demand management in search equilibrium for some initial positions there are two equilibrium paths converging to different steady states with the high activity path pareto dominating the low activity path with some parameters there is also a continuum of equilibrium paths converging to another steady state moreover there can be cycles that are equilibrium paths even though the environment is stationary

political identity experimental evidence on anti americanism in pakistan we identify pakistani men s willingness to pay to preserve their anti american identity using two experiments imposing clearly specified financial costs on anti american expression with minimal consequential or social considerations in two distinct studies one quarter to one third of subjects forgo payments from the u s government worth around one fifth of a day s wage to avoid an identity threatening choice anonymously checking a box indicating gratitude toward the u s government we find sensitivity to both payment size and anticipated social context when subjects anticipate that rejection will be observable by others rejection falls suggesting that for some social image can outweigh self image

electoral competition and special interest politics have fixed positions on some issues but vary their positions on others in order to attract votes and campaign contributions in this context we examine whether special interest groups are governed by an electoral motive or an influence in their campaign giving and how their contributions affect the equilibrium platforms we show that each party is induced to behave as if it were maximizing a weighted sum of the aggregate welfares of informed voters and members of special interest groups the party that is expected to win a majority of seats caters more to the special interests

is the us business cycle asymmetric some further evidence evidence of nonlinearity in growth rates of monthly industrial production unit labour costs consumer prices and unemployment is reported and alternative representations of that nonlinearity exami

a theory of competition among pressure groups for political influence this paper presents a theory of competition among pressure groups for political influence political equilibrium depends on the efficiency of each group in producing pressure the effect of additional pressure on their influence the number of persons in different groups and the deadweight cost of taxes and subsidies an increase in deadweight costs discourages pressure by subsidized groups and encourages pressure by taxpayers this analysis unifies the view that governments correct market failures with the view that they favor the politically powerful both are produced by the competition for political favors

special interests and the media theory and an application to climate change a journalist reports to a voter on an unknown policy relevant state competing special interests can make claims that contradict the facts but seem credible to the voter a reputational incentive to avoid taking sides leads the journalist to report special interests claims to the voter in equilibrium the voter can remain uninformed even when the journalist is perfectly informed communication is improved if the journalist discloses her partisan leanings the model provides an account of persistent public ignorance on climate change that is consistent with narrative and quantitative evidence

mass media competition political competition and public policy if better informed voters receive favourable policies then mass media will affect policy because mass media provide most of the information people use in voting this paper models the incentives of the media to deliver news to different groups the increasing returns to scale technology and advertising financing of media firms induce them to provide more news to large groups such as taxpayers and dispersed consumer interests and groups that are valuable to advertisers this news bias alters the tradeoff in political competition and therefore introduces a bias in public policy the paper also discusses the effects of broadcast media replacing newspapers as the main information source about politics the model predicts that this change should raise spending on government programmes used by poor and rural voters

mobility costs frictional unemployment and efficiency with imperfect job information flows it is plausible that the distribution of job offerings becomes more attractive when there are more vacancies and more unemployed with word of mouth communication this condition is derived given this condition steady state equilibrium is not efficient with welfare increased by the introduction of unemployment compensation even though all agents are risk neutral in this way workers become more selective in the jobs they accept

advertising and media capture the case of climate change abstract this paper analyzes whether media capture by advertisers is a potential source of the divergence between the scientific consensus and public discourse about climate change i develop an objective measure of the tone of climate change coverage by creating an index that builds on gentzkow and shapiro 2010 using phrase frequency analysis to compare newspaper text with the un s ipcc reports and the heartland institute s skeptical response each of which are lengthy official reports with clear stances on climate change i also develop a measure of potential advertising from the auto industry using national shocks to advertising at the manufacturer level weighted by previous advertising at the newspaper level the empirical analysis shows that this potential advertising allows firms to capture newspapers within newspaper the potential for advertising from car manufacturers shifts the tone of coverage towards skepticism i also find suggestive evidence that potential advertising reduces the overall quantity of coverage of climate change

strategic communication with lying costs i study a model of strategic communication between an uninformed receiver and an informed but upwardly biased sender the sender bears a cost of lying or more broadly of misrepresenting his private information the main results show that inflated language naturally arises in this environment where the sender almost always claims to be of a higher type than he would with complete information regardless of the intensity of lying cost there is incomplete separation with some pooling on the highest messages the degree of language inflation and how much information is revealed depend upon the intensity of lying cost the analysis delivers a framework to span a class of cheap talk and verifiable disclosure games unifying the polar predictions they make under large conflicts of interest i use the model to discuss how the degree of manipulability of information can affect the trade off between delegation and communication copyright 2009 wiley blackwell

a monte carlo study of the forecasting performance of empirical setar models in this paper we investigate the multi period forecast performance of a number of empirical selfexciting threshold autoregressive setar models that have been proposed in the literature for modelling exchange rates and gnp amongst other variables we take each of the empirical setar models in turn as the dgp to ensure that the non linearity characterises the future and compare the forecast performance of setar and linear autoregressive models on a number of quantitative and qualitative criteria our results indicate that non linear models have an edge in certain states of nature but not in others and that this can be highlighted by evaluating forecasts conditional upon the regime

are biased media bad for democracy this paper assesses the normative and positive claims regarding the consequences of biased media using a political agency framework with a strategic voter polarized politicians and news providers my model predicts that voters are always better informed with unbiased than biased outlets even when the latter have opposite ideological preferences however biased media may improve voter welfare contrary to several scholars fear partisan news providers are not always bad for democracy my theoretical findings also have important implications for empirical analyses of the electoral consequences of changes in the media environment left wing and right wing biased outlets have heterogeneous effects on electoral outcomes which need to be properly accounted for existing empirical studies are unlikely to measure the consequences of biased media as researchers never observe and can rarely approximate the adequate counterfactual elections with unbiased news outlets

electoral competition with informed and uninformed voters i present a model of electoral competition in which candidates raise campaign contributions by choosing policies that benefit interest groups and then expend those contributions to influence voters who are uninformed about the policies informed voters however vote based on those policies so candidates face a trade off between choosing a policy to generate funds to attract the uninformed vote and choosing a policy to attract the informed vote electoral equilibria are characterized for two categories of policies particularistic and collective in the case of particularistic policies the equilibrium policies of the candidates are separated if the proportion of uninformed voters is sufficiently high and the degree of separation is an increasing function of that proportion the model is extended to include the public financing of elections and incumbency advantages for the case of collective policies the candidates locate at the median of the ideal points of the informed voters and contributions are zero