wheat from chaff meta analysis as quantitative literature review abstract this paper presents and develops a quantitative method of literature reviewing and evaluating empirical research meta regression analysis or mra economics is theory driven yet we must learn empirically if economics is to advance mra offers a more objective statistical method to summarize our empirical knowledge and to explain the wide study to study variation in economic research mra is used to assess the evidence for ricardian equivalence and its findings are contrasted to those of conventional narrative review furthermore mra establishes a platform from which to distinguish genuine empirical effect from the exploitable specification error that infests applied econometrics

empirical evidence on inflation expectations in the new keynesian phillips curve abstract we review the main identification strategies and empirical evidence on the role of expectations in the new keynesian phillips curve paying particular attention to the issue of weak identi

expectations as a source of macroeconomic persistence evidence from survey expectations in a dynamic macro model abstract embedding survey expectations in a standard dsge model helps to identify key slope parameters in standard relationships dramatically reduces the need for lagged dependent variables often motivated by price indexation and habit formation and obviates the need for autocorrelated structural shocks in the key equations formal statistical tests demonstrate that much of the persistence in aggregate data is better accounted for by slow moving expectations rather than by habits indexation and autocorrelated structural shocks

inflation dynamics when inflation is near zero this paper discusses the likely evolution of u s inflation in the near and medium term on the basis of 1 past u s experience with very low levels of inflation 2 the most recent japanese experience with deflation and 3 recent u s micro evidence on downward nominal wage rigidity our findings question the view that stable long run inflation expectations and downward nominal wage rigidity will provide sufficient support to prices such that deflation can be avoided we show that an inflation model fitted on japanese data over the past 20 years which accounts for both short and long run inflation expectations matches the recent u s inflation experience quite well while the model indicates that u s inflation might be subject to a lower bound it does not rule out a prolonged period of mild deflation going forward in addition our micro evidence on wages suggests no obvious downward rigidity in the firm s wage costs downward rigidity in individual wages notwithstanding as a consequence downward nominal wage rigidity may provide little offset to deflationary pressures in the current u s situation despite some circumstantial evidence that this channel might have been at work in the past

inflation expectations in euro area phillips curves abstract we analyze the information content of alternative inflation expectations measures including those from consumers firms experts and financial markets in the context of open economy phillips curves we adopt a thick modeling approach with rolling regressions and we assess the results of an out of sample conditional forecasting exercise by means of meta regressions the information content varies substantially across inflation expectations measures in particular we find that those from consumers and firms are better at predicting inflation if compared to those from experts and especially those from financial markets

hidden flexibility institutions incentives and the margins of selectivity in fishing the degree to which selectivity in fisheries is malleable to changes in incentive structures is critical for policy design we examine data for a multispecies trawl fishery before and after a transition from management under common pool quotas to a fishery cooperative and note a substantial shift in postcooperative catch from bycatch and toward valuable target species we examine the margins used to affect catch composition finding that large and fine scale spatial decision making and avoidance of night fishing were critical we argue that the poor incentives for selectivity in many systems may obscure significant flexibility in multispecies production technologies

the history of the phillips curve consensus and bifurcation while the early history of the phillips curve up to 1975 is well known less well understood is the post 1975 fork in the road the left fork developed a theory of policy responses to supply shocks in the context of price stickiness in the non shocked sector its econometric implementation interacts shocks with backward looking inertia the right fork approach emphasizes forward looking expectations that can jump in response to anticipated policy changes the left fork approach is better suited to explaining the postwar us inflation process while the right fork approach is essential for understanding behaviour in economies with unstable macroeconomic environments the history of the phillips curve pc has evolved in two phases before and after 1975 with a widespread consensus about the pre 1975 evolution which is well understood bifurcation begins in 1975 when the pc literature split down two forks of the road with little communication or interaction between the two forks the major contribution of this paper and hence the source of bifurcation in its subtitle is to examine contrast and test the contributions of the two post 1975 forks the pre 1975 history is straightforward and is covered in section i the initial discovery of the negative inflation unemployment relation by phillips popularized by samuelson and solow was followed by a brief period in which policy makers assumed that they could exploit the trade off to reduce unemployment at a small cost of additional inflation then the natural rate revolution of friedman phelps and lucas overturned the policy exploitable trade off in favour of long run monetary neutrality those who had implemented the econometric version of the trade off pc in the 1960s reeled in disbelief when sargent demonstrated the logical failure of their test of neutrality and finally were condemned to the wreckage of keynesian economics by lucas and sargent following the twist of the inflation unemployment correlation from negative in the 1960s to positive in the 1970s the architects of neutrality and the opponents of the keynesian trade off emerged triumphant with two major caveats that their own models based on information barriers were unconvincing and that their core result that business cycles were driven by monetary or price surprises floundered without supporting evidence after 1975 the evolution of the pc literature split in two directions each of which has largely failed to recognize the other s contributions section ii reviews the left fork of the road the revival of the pc trade off in a coherent and integrated dynamic aggregate supply and demand framework that emerged in the late 1970s in econometric tests in theoretical contributions and in intermediate macro textbooks this approach which i have called mainstream is resolutely keynesian because the inflation rate is dominated by persistence and inertia in the form of long lags on past inflation an important difference between the mainstream approach and other post 1975 developments is that the role of past inflation is not limited to the formation of expectations but also includes a pure persistence effect due to fixed duration wage and price contracts and lags between

stock size harvesting costs and the potential for extinction the case of sealing starting in the 1960s considerable opposition to the canadian and norwegian harp seal hunt off newfoundland developed it was alleged that the seal hunt was unethical and that the seal population had been seriously depleted the purpose of this paper is to analyze the production function for the seal hunt based on data for the norwegian seal hunt particular attention is paid to the question whether free entry to the fishery will cause overexploitation this depends critically on the characteristics of the production function in particular the extent to which harvesting costs depend on stock size

estimating substitution and expansion effects using a profit function framework this study reports a first attempt to derive all the relevant information with respect to the structure of production of an industry using knowledge of only a profit function using estimates of a profit function for canadian agriculture a procedure to separate substitution and expansion effects for both inputs and outputs was implemented information concerning net input and output substitution and complementarity possibilities were obtained the most important empirical results suggest that the hypothesis of nonjoint production of crop and animal outputs in canadian agriculture cannot be rejected and that hired and operator labor are complements rather than substitutes

multiple input multiple output production choices and technology in the u s wheat region duality theory motivates a translog expected profit function consistent with multiple products price uncertainty preseason climate constraints acreage control policies and possibly nonhomothetic technology although multiple outputs are allowed enterprise specific data is not necessary instead time series measures of output revenues and expected prices input expenses and prices and fixed input flows are employed appropriate measures of elasticities of choice returns to size and biases in technological change are derived results indicated decreasing returns to size rather limited though complementary responsiveness of choices to price changes and the nature of biases in technological changes

total factor productivity change in the new england groundfish fishery 1964 1993 abstract we develop estimates of total factor productivity tfp change in the new england groundfish fishery from 1964 to 1993 using a procedure similar to squires 1992 rand j econom 23 2 221 236 method which extends standard tfp measurement by including the effect of fluctuations in stock abundance the results indicate that tfp increased on average by 4 4 per year from 1964 to 1993 a higher average rate of increase occurred between 1964 and 1982 possibly due to new technologies e g fishfinders tfp declined at 0 33 annually from 1983 to 1993 due to stringent output and effort control measures

long run profit functions for multiproduct firms a long run specification of the multiproduct profit function is developed from the restricted profit function the multiproduct restricted profit function and the envelope condition are used to estimate the optimal long run levels of the quasi fixed factor formulas for long run marshallian elasticities of substitution and transformation economies of scope product specific and overall economies of scale and economic measures of capacity utilization are developed for the translog functional form the methodology is illustrated by a case study of the new england otter trawl industry

transferable quotas enforcement costs and typical firms an empirical application to the norwegian trawler fleet an alternative to traditional regulations of fisheries to avoid rent dissipation is the use of individual transferable quotas itqs where prices in the quota market provide the necessary information to owners of harvest rights to contract with each other however even under such a decentralized regime information on the underlying technology of the fishing vessels is also necessary first since most fisheries consist of many interrelated production processes in order to avoid rent dissipation by discarding wrong output mix etc the structure of production in the multispecies fishery must be known to design a proper quota system second an itq system may create incentives for misreporting by understating the actual catch this may especially be the case where the expected degree of self enforcement is low the paper proposes a way to reduce the information requirements under regulation with asymmetric information by constructing a typical firm and comparing performance for the other vessels to this firm based on the typical firm and if the industry is relatively homogenous the performance and hence catch of any other firm in the industry can be predicted within a certain range further the paper applies this idea to the norwegian trawler fleet to assess the production structure in terms of jointness input output separability and the supply and demand elasticities for the fishing firms this information characterizes the fishery and thus how the quota system may be designed and how to construct a yardstick in order to reduce the enforcement cost under a decentralized regulation of itqs

multi output nonfrontier primal measures of capacity and capacity utilization this article implements an econometric approach for generating primal capacity output and utilization measures for fisheries in situations where regulatory environmental and resource conditions affect catch levels but are not independently identified in the data frontier based capacity models may interpret such impacts as production inefficiency however if such inefficiencies are unlikely to be eliminated the implied potential output increases may be unrealistic we develop a multi output multi input stochastic transformation function framework that permits various assumptions about how output composition may change when operating at full capacity we apply our model to catcher processor vessels in the alaskan pollock fishery

fishing revenue productivity and product choice in the alaskan pollock fishery a key element in evaluating fishery management strategies is examining their effects on the economic performance of fishery participants yet nearly all empirical studies of fisheries focus exclusively on the amount of fish harvested the economic benefits derived from fish stocks involve the amount of revenue generated from fish processing which is linked to both the way fish are harvested and the products produced from the fish in this study we econometrically estimate a flexible revenue function for catcher processor vessels operating in the alaskan pollock fishery recognizing potential endogeneity and a variety of fishing inputs and conditions we find significant own price supply responses and product substitutability and enhanced revenues from increased fishing days and tow duration after a regulatory change introduced property rights through a new fishing cooperative we also find significant growth in economic productivity or higher revenues over time after controlling for observed productive factors and price changes which exceeds that attributable to increased harvest these patterns suggest that the move to rights based management has contributed significantly to economic performance in the pollock fishery

adjustment cost and supply response in a fishery a dynamic revenue function in industries where firms can adjust product mix in response to price changes the process can be delayed by adjustment costs an example is fishermen who change fishing grounds to target different species if adjustment costs are sufficiently large this may hamper the fishermen s response so that regulatory tools that are not efficient in the long run are useful in the short run moreover adjustment costs can influence the choice of species targeted in this paper dynamic supply equations are specified using a revenue function approach different hypotheses about the dynamics of the supply equations are tested for norwegian trawlers

public regulation and the structure of production in multiproduct industries an application to the new england otter trawl industry this article considers the problem of managing multispecies fishing industries as one of regulating the production of individual multiproduct firms the multispecies new england otter trawl industry is examined within this framework empirical results derived from estimating a multiproduct profitfunction indicate that management consistent with the structures ofmultiproduct production and costs would directly regulate inputs little support is provided for applying the traditional bioeconomic model to the fishery studied

real time fiscal forecasting using mixed frequency data the sovereign debt crisis has increased the importance of monitoring budgetary execution we employ real time data using a mixed data sampling midas methodology to demonstrate how budgetary slippages can be detected early on we show that in spite of using real time data the year end forecast errors diminish significantly when incorporating intra annual information our results show the benefits of forecasting aggregates via subcomponents in this case total government revenue and expenditure our methodology could significantly improve fiscal surveillance and could therefore be an important part of the european commission s model toolkit

inflation dynamics and subjective expectations in the united states i introduction this paper analyzes the ability of sticky price models to explain the dynamics of u s inflation when using survey data as proxies for inflation expectations testing sticky price models with survey expectations is attractive since to the extent that survey data correctly capture agents expectations they allow to disregard issues related to the specification of agents expectations functions one neither has to impose untested orthogonality restrictions as required when estimating under the assumption of rational expectations nor has to make restrictive assumptions about the precise form of nonrationality present in agents forecast functions this allows to focus on the question whether the economic models under consideration are correctly specified previous tests of sticky price models performed under the assumption that agents hold rational expectations have generated mixed results prominently fuhrer and moore 1995 have reported that sticky price models do not generate sufficient stickiness for inflation when the output gap is used as a measure of real marginal costs recent evidence however has shown that the empirical performance depends crucially on how one measures real marginal costs the main determinant of inflation according to sticky price models for instance gall and gertler 1999 and sbordone 2002 show that sticky price models perform well once marginal costs are approximated by average unit labor costs 1 it makes an important difference whether sticky price models successfully explain inflation dynamics as a function of output behavior or they relate inflation dynamics to the behavior of unit labor costs given that the ultimate objective is a model explaining the joint behavior of output and inflation the latter case would require an additional empirically plausible theory linking the dynamics of unit labor costs to the behavior of output this paper studies whether the currently popular new keynesian phillips curve nkpc which can be derived from calvo 1983 style sticky price models is able to explain a relationship between inflation on the one hand and output or unit labor costs on the other hand thus we let the data speak whether a theory linking output to costs is warranted once expectations are approximated by data reported in the survey of professional forecasters our main finding is that the nkpc performs equally well with both measures of marginal costs output and unit labor costs whatever measure is used the estimate of the quarterly discount factor is close to one and the point estimate of the degree of price stickiness implies that firms reset their prices roughly every five quarters on average these results suggest that potential nonrationalities in expectations as they show up in surveys have biased previous estimates using output as a measure for marginal costs quite surprisingly the same nonrationalities do not seem to play a role when using unit labor costs here our estimates confirm the results obtained by gall and gertler 1999 and sbordone 2002 who assumed rational expectations we show that the reason for this finding is that approximating the agents information set using the unit labor cost variable rests on more solid grounds than approximating it using the output variable in particular the survey data suggest that the hypothesis of rational expectations implies a too high correlation between lagged output and future inflation expectations we show that this causes the coefficient estimate for output to become negative contrary to what is implied by theory these results suggest that once one takes account of potentially nonrational expectations via survey expectations sticky price models are able to establish a close link between output dynamics and the behavior of inflation to assess the robustness of this finding we include into the price equation lags of various variables and test for their significance

resource rent in individual quota fisheries traditional fisheries management schemes generate incentives for vessels to maximize catch resulting in rent dissipation and overcapacity individual vessel quota management schemes change the incentives to maximize profit and have the potential to generate resource rent and reduce capacity an interesting question is whether it is the changed incentives due to individual quota or the capacity reduction due to transferability of individual quota that is most important in generating rent in this study a cost function approach is used to model and measure rent generated and potential rent in a fishery managed with individual vessel quotas

cost structure and capacity in the norwegian pelagic fisheries the parameters of the short run cost function are estimated for three vessel types taking part in the norwegian pelagic fisheries purse seine vessels trawlers and coastal vessels the generalized translog functional form is used estimates of returns to scale are calculated and the results indicate that there are substantial economies of scale in all vessel classes it is further investigated whether excess capacity varies with vessel size and age the analysis suggests increased quotas per vessel to avoid rent dissipation with the total allowable catch given the number of participating vessels must be reduced

the formation of expectations inflation and the phillips curve this paper argues for a careful re consideration of the expectations formation process and a more systematic inclusion of real time expectations through survey data in macroeconomic analyses while the rational expectations revolution has allowed for great leaps in macroeconomic modeling the surveyed empirical micro evidence appears increasingly at odds with the full information rational expectation assumption we explore models of expectation formation that can potentially explain why and how survey data deviate from full information rational expectations using the new keynesian phillips curve as an extensive case study we demonstrate how incorporating survey data on inflation expectations can address a number of otherwise puzzling shortcomings that arise under the assumption of full information rational expectations