pricing multiasset equity options how relevant is the dependence function abstract in this paper we test how different choices for the dependence function can affect the prices of a set of multiasset equity options we conduct the analysis for various 5 dimensional baskets of uk shares and a wide range of payoffs for the multiasset options consistent with the instruments traded on the market we also test the relevance of the dependence specification over both volatile and quiet market scenarios interestingly we find that in most circumstances the choice of a dependence structure richer than the standard linear correlation does not seem to affect option prices substantially however the dependence function becomes more relevant in particularly volatile market conditions

oligarchic family control social economic outcomes and the quality of government wealthy families as opposed to small public shareholders characterize ownership of the large corporate sectors of many countries around the world this paper shows that greater oligarchic family control over large corporations is associated with worse social economic outcomes it also correlates with more bureaucratic and more interventionist governments and less developed financial markets further tests show that red tape price controls and the lack of shareholder rights protection are the paramount factors relating to the extent of family control of large firms these results are broadly consistent with olson and others who argue that economically entrenched wealthy insiders pursue rent seeking activities to preserve the status quo and that this increases corruption and impedes growth

income distribution and growth the kuznets hypothesis revisited this study develops a general equilibrium model in which the evolution of income inequality and output conforms with the kuznets hypothesis the paper presents a novel endogenous mechanism that generates the inverted u relation between income inequality and per capita output and captures the reciprocal influence between the two unlike previous attempts for a comprehensive theoretical modelling of this phenomenon the evolution of the economy is consistent with another important empirical observation namely that output growth is accompanied in the early stages of development by a widening wage differential between skilled and unskilled labour whereas in a later stage this wage differential declines this study develops a general equilibrium model in which the evolution of income inequality and output conforms with the kuznets hypothesis the paper presents a novel endogenous mechanism that generates the inverted u relation between income inequality and per capita output and captures the reciprocal influence between the two unlike previous attempts for a compre hensive theoretical modelling of this phenomenon the economic evolution is consistent with another important empirical observation namely that output growth is accompanied in early stages of development by a widening wage differential between skilled and unskilled labour whereas in a later stage this wage differential declines the relationship between the distribution of income and economic growth has been a focus of research for several decades in a seminal contribution kuznets 1955 explored the historical evolution of income distribution and per capita output his study demonstrated that income inequality widens in the early phase of economic growth and narrows in the later stage of development kuznets s inverted u hypothesis has been debated in the last few decades and has been confirmed by a large number of cross section empirical studies and refuted by others time series analysis indicates that the hypothesis is consist 2 ent with the experience of most of the developed world furthermore these studies suggest that output growth is accompanied in early stages of develop ment by a widening wage differential between skilled and unskilled labour and that in a later stage this wage differential declines see e g williamson 1985 throughout the years the link between income distribution and economic growth has been interpreted mostly as a causal relation from growth to income distribution recently however the nature of this link has been re examined and attention has been paid to the causality in the other direction galor and zeira 1993 have demonstrated that owing to borrowing constraints income

derivative pricing using multivariate affine generalized hyperbolic distributions abstract in this paper we use multivariate affine generalized hyperbolic magh distributions introduced by schmidt et al 2006 to show how to price multidimensional derivatives when the underlying asset follows a magh distribution we also illustrate the approach using market data from the bovespa sao paulo stock exchange and the exchange rate of the brazilian real vs us dollar to price some multidimensional derivatives

on data a case study of the evolution of income inequality across time and across countries this paper takes income distribution as a case study of the role of data in economics after describing the transformation which has taken place with regard to the availability of data on income inequality it discusses how the comparability of these estimates is brought into question by differences in methodology that cannot be eliminated by simple adjustments recent analyses of the relationships between income inequality and growth or globalisation are shown to be based on time series plagued by discontinuities which can seriously affect regression results the paper concludes by calling for greater attention to data quality in applied economics

tempered stable and tempered infinitely divisible garch models abstract in this paper we introduce a new garch model with an infinitely divisible distributed innovation this model which we refer to as the rapidly decreasing tempered stable rdts garch model takes into account empirical facts that have been observed for stock and index returns such as volatility clustering non zero skewness and excess kurtosis for the residual distribution we review the classical tempered stable cts garch model which has similar statistical properties by considering a proper density transformation between infinitely divisible random variables we can find the risk neutral price process thereby allowing application to option pricing we propose algorithms to generate scenarios based on garch models with cts and rdts innovations to investigate the performance of these garch models we report parameter estimates for the dow jones industrial average index and stocks included in this index to demonstrate the advantages of the proposed model we calculate option prices based on the index

a theory of political transitions we develop a theory of political transitions inspired by the experiences of western europe and latin america nondemocratic societies are controlled by a rich elite the initially disenfranchised poor can contest power by threatening revolution especially when the opportunity cost is low for example during recessions the threat of revolution may force the elite to democratize democracy may not consolidate because it is redistributive and so gives the elite an incentive to mount a coup highly unequal societies are less likely to consolidate democracy and may end up oscillating between regimes and suffer substantial fiscal volatility

size and distribution of incomes as determinants of social welfare abstract the paper is concerned with the relationship between the inequality of income distributions and the social welfare they imply starting point is an ordering of income distributions in terms of inequality based on explicit value judgments about the trade off between size and distribution of incomes an ordering in terms of social welfare is derived the welfare functions representing this ordering allow a size distribution split up it is shown that the procedure can be reversed this ordinal approach is considerably more flexible and less arbitrary than most methods proposed in the literature

building political consensus and distributing resources a trade off or a compatible choice in recent years the rationale of most welfare programs has been the subject of intense political debate not only in the united states but also in european countries e g germany sweden and france with well established welfare systems new global economic challenges and grim demographic trends present political leaders and workers with the difficult task of balancing government budgets while maintaining elaborate welfare programs the prevailing opinion is that welfare has a negative impact on economic growth because of the disincentives it creates for the working population nevertheless social scientists have often overlooked the political ramifications of welfare spending and its impacts on a country s income distribution in this article we argue that the level of welfare spending is fundamentally a political decision and therefore conditional on the sociopolitical and demographic structures prevailing within a country

balancing energy strategies in electricity portfolio management traditional management of electricity portfolios is focused on the day ahead market and futures of longer maturity within limits market participants can however also resort to the balancing energy market to close their positions in this paper we determine strategic positions in the balancing energy market and identify corresponding economic incentives in an analysis of the german balancing energy demand we find that those strategies allow an economically optimal starting point for real time balancing and create a marketplace for flexible capacity that is more open than alternative marketplaces the strategies we proffer in this paper we believe will contribute to an effective functioning of the electricity market

a duration analysis of democratic transitions and authoritarian backslides recent theories of political development have emphasized redistributive demands as the main drivers of democratic transitions and consolidation the authors employ cox duration models to evaluate a number of economic institutionalist and sociological theories of regime transition using global data from 1970 to 1999 this study suggests that demands for redistribution are insufficient explanators of political transitions the authors find that transitions to democracy depend primarily on a high level of oppositionist social mobilization and secondarily favorable patterns of economic distribution on the other hand a high level of socioeconomic development is by far the best guarantor of democratic resiliency whereas mass political conflict endangers consolidation once democracy has been introduced the study also reveals that institutionalist factors are less influential than socioeconomic characteristics in explaining regime transitions this study highlights the contribution of social movement the

generational accounting and intergenerational welfare we investigate the intergenerational welfare implications of generational accounting when it is used as the basis for intertemporal fiscal policy decisions in particular we consider an economy with a paygo social security system out of steady state due to a permanent fall in fertility in a highly stylized cge overlapping generations model we illustrate that policy recommendations based on a standard application of generational accounting may not be compatible with intertemporal welfare maximization our model provides an example where such policies are either time inconsistent or welfare decreasing

income and democracy revisiting the evidence abstract in an influential paper acemoglu et al 2008 find that the positive correlation between income per capita and the level of democracy across countries vanishes once country specific effects are accounted for in this paper we find evidence of a non linear effect from income to democracy even after controlling for country specific effects in particular our findings point to the existence of a positive effect only in low income countries

the effects of differential income replacement and mortality on u s social security redistribution we study redistribution via the u s social security retirement system for cohorts of men born during the second half of the 20th century our focus is on redistribution across race and education groups the cohorts we study are younger than cohorts studied in previous similar research and thus more exposed to recent increases in earnings inequality all else equal this should increase the degree of progressivity of social security redistribution due to the structure of the benefit formula however we find that redistribution is only modestly progressive for individuals born as late as 1980 differential mortality rates across race and education groups are the primary explanation while black white mortality gaps have narrowed some in recent years they remain large and dull progressivity mortality gaps by education level are also large and unlike the gaps by race they are widening which puts additional regressive pressure on social security redistribution

equivalence scale relativities and the extent of inequality and poverty most inequality and poverty theory analyzes equivalent income distributions for homogeneous populations incomes are assumed to be deflated by an equivalence scale that accounts for differences in needs between households yet in practice there is no consensus about what the appropriate equivalence scale is the authors analyze how the choice of equivalence scale affects inequality and poverty measures and show that there is a systematic relationship between equivalence scale generosity and the extent of inequality and poverty they consider most of the measures in common use and provide some empirical illustrations copyright 1992 by royal economic society

welfare and economic growth in kenya 1914 76 abstract in this paper we present estimates of per capita income income distribution and poverty in kenya for the period between 1914 and 1976 the estimates indicate that per capita incomes mostly increased up to 1974 inequality increased most of the time until 1950 then fell and increased again until 1971 and then finally fell poverty declined until 1964 but has since then increased slightly a decomposition analysis shows that modern sector enrichment contributed more to growth than modern sector enlargement and that traditional sector enrichment was of greater importance to the poor than modern sector enlargement

the impact of income on the taste for revolt the question of how the level of development affects revolutionary support in society is of fundamental importance one approach to provide an answer has been to study the relationship between actual civil conflict and income at the national level this article takes a different approach it uses microdata sets based on surveys of revolutionary support across one quarter of a million people and identifies how the responses vary with their incomes we find that a rise in gdp of us 1 600 per capita in 2001 values decreases the chances of supporting revolt by 2 4 percentage points which represents a 41 drop in the proportion of people wanting a revolution for a person who jumps from the bottom to top income quartile within their country the probability declines by a similar amount the results are robust to controlling for country and year effects country specific time trends and take account of the potential endogeneity of gdp

the distribution of income in a despotic society a distribution of income between rulers and subjects can be derived as an equilibrium of violence rather than from considerations of marginal products of owned factors of production society is organized in ranks and the occupants of each rank are provided with incomes just sufficient that obedience is preferable to rebellion to incorporate such considerations into a model it is necessary to recognize phenomena that are normally excluded from economic analysis combat the mortality rate from natural causes and from violence as a component of the utility function and a rudimentary technology of control

social security and intergenerational redistribution a generational accounting perspective this paper is concerned with the analysis of intergenerational redistribution in a pay as you go financed social security scheme instead of annual fiscal indicators we apply generational accounts to calculate the intertemporal effects arising from a projected aging process as a case study the institutional settings and the parameterization of our model refer to the conditions found in germany in 1989 additionally the intergenerational impacts of the german 1992 pension reform act are taken into account our findings suggest that the major reform measures affect the distribution of the demographic burden between future and presently living generations however the burden is shifted in favor of the generations currently alive thereby contradicting the explicit political intentions and aggravating the situation for future generations

parametric pension reform with higher retirement ages a computational investigation of alternatives for a pay as you go based pension system abstract this paper discusses parametric reform options to control losses generated by a publicly managed pay as you go payg pension system under alternative deficit reduction reform strategies involving changes in contribution and replacement rates and statutory retirement ages two different problems corresponding to different pension reform strategies are considered using computational techniques the techniques are illustrated through exercises employing data for the financially troubled pension system in turkey

an evaluation of does economic inequality breed political conflict studies contradictory findings that economic inequality may have a positive negative or no impact on political conflict are a puzzle for conflict studies three approaches have been used t o explain the inconsistent findings of the ei pc economic inequality political conflict nexus statistical modeling formal modeling and theory building because analysts have tended to possess different research skills these three approaches have been employed in isolation from one another singly however all three approaches have proved deficient and are unlikely to solve the ei pc puzzle the most fruitful approach is to combine the assumptions of the theory builders and the deductive approach of the formal modelers with the various empirical tests of the statistical modelers such an approach to the ei pc puzzle produces a crucial test of the deprived actor and rational actor theories of conflict the approach is also our best hope for solving the other long standing puzzles in conflict studies

welfare effects of unfunded pension systems when labor supply is endogenous abstract a mandatory unfunded pension system can lead to welfare losses if the contributions are levied in such a way that the labor supply decision of the individuals is distorted this is shown in an overlapping generations model for a closed economy furthermore it is shown that under certain conditions a gradual abolition of unfuded pensions using lump sum contributions in the transition phase can lead to an intergenerational pareto improvement thus the paper extends a result recently derived by homburg for a small open economy to the closed economy case

perceptions of equity and the distribution of income this article develops a model in which quit rates and thus the income distribution depend on employee perceptions of the accuracy of employer assessments of individual productivity because these latter assessments affect wages when employees believe that these assessments are accurate income inequality tends to be high the model can account for the negative correlation across some countries of inequality and the extent to which inequality is deemed to be excessive it also fits the contrast in u s and french experiences concerning the tenure of highly educated workers with high wages relative to the tenure of lower paid workers

financial market models with levy processes and time varying volatility abstract asset management and pricing models require the proper modeling of the return distribution of financial assets while the return distribution used in the traditional theories of asset pricing and portfolio selection is the normal distribution numerous studies that have investigated the empirical behavior of asset returns in financial markets throughout the world reject the hypothesis that asset return distributions are normally distribution alternative models for describing return distributions have been proposed since the 1960s with the strongest empirical and theoretical support being provided for the family of stable distributions with the normal distribution being a special case of this distribution since the turn of the century specific forms of the stable distribution have been proposed and tested that better fit the observed behavior of historical return distributions more specifically subclasses of the tempered stable distribution have been proposed in this paper we propose one such subclass of the tempered stable distribution which we refer to as the kr distribution we empirically test this distribution as well as two other recently proposed subclasses of the tempered stable distribution the carr geman madan yor cgmy distribution and the modified tempered stable mts distribution the advantage of the kr distribution over the other two distributions is that it has more flexible tail parameters for these three subclasses of the tempered stable distribution which are infinitely divisible and have exponential moments for some neighborhood of zero we generate the exponential levy market models induced from them we then construct a new garch model with the infinitely divisible distributed innovation and three subclasses of that garch model that incorporates three observed properties of asset returns volatility clustering fat tails and skewness we formulate the algorithm to find the risk neutral return processes for those garch models using the change of measure for the tempered stable distributions to compare the performance of those exponential levy models and the garch models we report the results of the parameters estimated for the s p 500 index and investigate the out of sample forecasting performance for those garch models for the s p 500 option prices

income inequality regime repressiveness and political violence death rate from political violence is postulated to vary cross nationally as a positively accelerated time lagged function of income inequality and as a nonmonotonic inverted u function of regime repressiveness the former hypothesis is consistent with approaches to the explanation of collective political violence that emphasize the general concept of discontent or more specifically relative deprivation the latter hypothesis is consistent with a political process version of the resource mobilization approach in the context of a multivariate model estimated across two decades 1958 67 and 1968 77 support is found for the inequality hypothesis support also is foundfor the regime repressiveness hypothesis in the decade 1968 77 for which the index of regime repressiveness is available the u curve effect of regime repressiveness appears to have stronger impact on variation in rates of deadly political violence than the positively accelerated effect of income inequality

seigniorage and political instability the importance of seigniorage relative to other sources of government revenue differs markedly across countries this paper tries to explain this regularity by studying a political model of tax reform the model implies that countries with a more unstable and polarized political system will have more inefficient tax structures and thus will rely more heavily on seigniorage this prediction of the model is tested on cross sectional data for seventy countries the authors find that after controlling for other variables political instability is positively associated with seigniorage copyright 1992 by american economic association

a new data set measuring income inequality this article presents a new data set on inequality in the distribution of income the authors explain the criteria they applied in selecting data on gini coefficients and on individual quintile groups income shares comparison of the new data set with existing compilations reveals that the data assembled here represent an improvement in quality and a significant expansion in coverage although differences in the definition of the underlying data might still affect inter temporal and international comparability based on this new data set the authors do not find a systematic link between growth and changes in aggregate inequality they do find a strong positive relationship between growth and reduction of poverty

a garch option pricing model with α stable innovations we develop an option pricing model which is based on a garch asset return process with stable innovations with truncated tails the approach utilizes a canonic martingale measure as pricing measure which provides the possibility of a model calibration to market prices the garch stable option pricing model allows the explanation of some well known anomalies in empirical data as volatility clustering and heavy tailedness of the return distribution finally the results of monte carlo simulations concerning the option price and the implied volatility with respect to different strike and maturity levels are presented

extracting market information from equity options with exponential levy processes levy processes have been successfully applied in the modeling of financial assets useful information such as implied volatility skewness and risk preferences can be derived from market option prices in this paper we advocate using esscher conjugate levy processes to estimate risk neutral and empirical densities more specifically we employ the exponential meixner and nig processes to calculate in closed form the pricing kernel in the equity market and then study the evolution of equity market behavior between 2002 and 2010 our empirical analysis using s p 500 options shows that the risk preferences of equity investors were signalling an anomaly in the market well before the subprime prime mortgage crisis august 2007 and the crisis of confidence that followed anticipating the downfall in equity markets in 2008 but then returning to normal levels in 2009

a dynamic theory of the transition to democracy abstract a model of the transition to democracy is presented within a dynamic general equilibrium framework we demonstrate that democratic transitions occur endogenously in the course of economic growth or with economic contraction being fundamentally driven by the economic position of the middle class democratic transitions can occur rapidly or slowly because the autocrat faces an informational asymmetry regarding the effect of his policies on the political economic environment the model shows that the primary factors affecting the speed of democratic transitions are inequality the planning horizon of the autocrat the autocrat s perceived legitimacy and the rate of economic growth

time series analysis for financial market meltdowns abstract there appears to be a consensus that the recent instability in global financial markets may be attributable in part to the failure of financial modeling more specifically it is alleged that current risk models have failed to properly assess the risks associated with large adverse stock price behavior in this paper we first discuss the limitations of classical time series models for forecasting financial market meltdowns then we set forth a framework capable of forecasting both extreme events and highly volatile markets based on the empirical evidence presented in this paper our framework offers an improvement over prevailing models for evaluating stock market risk exposure during distressed market periods

political regimes and economic growth arguments that relate regimes to growth focus on property rights pressures for immediate consumption and the autonomy of dictators while everyone seems to agree that secure property rights foster growth it is controversial whether democracies or dictatorships better secure these rights the main mechanism by which democracy is thought to hinder growth is pressure for immediate consumption which reduces investment only states that are institutionally insulated from such pressures can resist them and democratic states are not the main argument against dictatorships is that authoritarian rulers have no interest in maximizing total output these views are summarized in turn

linking conflict to inequality and polarization in this paper we study a behavioral model of conflict that provides a basis for choosing certain indices of dispersion as indicators for conflict we show that a suitable monotone transform of the equilibrium level of conflict can be proxied by a linear function of the gini coefficient the herfindahl hirschman fractionalization index and a specific measure of polarization due to esteban and ray jel classification d74 d31

a closed form garch option valuation model this paper develops a closed form option valuation formula for a spot asset whose variance follows a garch p q process that can be correlated with the returns of the spot asset it provides the first readily computed option formula for a random volatility model that can be estimated and implemented solely on the basis of observables the single lag version of this model contains heston s 1993 stochastic volatility model as a continuous time limit empirical analysis on s p500 index options shows that the out of sample valuation errors from the single lag version of the garch model are substantially lower than the ad hoc black scholes model of dumas fleming and whaley 1998 that uses a separate implied volatility for each option to fit to the smirk smile in implied volatilities the garch model remains superior even though the parameters of the garch model are held constant and volatility is filtered from the history of asset prices while the ad hoc black scholes model is updated every period the improvement is largely due to the ability of the garch model to simultaneously capture the correlation of volatility with spot returns and the path dependence in volatility article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

ethnicity and conflict an empirical study this paper examines the impact of ethnic divisions on conict the empirical specication is informed by a theoretical model of conict esteban and ray 2011 in which equilibrium conict is related to just three distributional indices of diversity ethnic polarization ethnic fractionalization and a greenberg gini index constructed across ethnic groups our empirical ndings verify that these distributional measures are signicant correlates of conict the underlying theory permits us to use these results to make inferences about the relative importance of public goods in conict as well as the extent of within group cohesion in conictual activity these eects are further strengthened as we introduce country specic measures of group cohesion and the relative importance of public goods and combine them with the distributional measures exactly as specied by the theory

the east european revolution of 1989 is it surprising that we were surprised many aspects of the east european revolution are controversial but on one point everyone agrees it caught the world by surprise even local dissidents were stunned by the sudden turn of events we will never know how many east europeans did foresee the explosion of 1989 but at each step accounts painted a picture of nations united in amazement to my knowledge only one study addresses the issue systematically four months after the breaching of the berlin wall the allensbach institute asked a broad sample of east germans a year ago did you expect such a peaceful revolution only 5 percent answered yes though 18 percent responded yes but not that fast fully 76 percent admitted to being totally surprised these figures are all the more remarkable given the i knew it would happen fallacy the human tendency to exaggerate foreknowledge baruch fischhoff and ruth beyth 1975 yet in hindsight the revolution appears as inevitable in each of the six countries the leadership was despised economic promises remained unfulfilled and basic freedoms existed only on paper more importantly winds of change in the soviet union were making soviet intervention increasingly unlikely but if the revolution was indeed inevitable why was it not foreseen what kept us from noticing signs that now after the fact are so plainly visible i preference falsification and revolutionary bandwagons

comparative democracy the economic development thesis in comparative politics an established finding that economic development fosters democratic performance has recently come under challenge we counter this challenge with a dynamic pooled time series analysis of a major but neglected data set from 131 nations the final generalized least squares autoregressive moving averages estimates n 2 096 appear robust and indicate strong economic development effects dependent in part on the nation s position in the world system for the first time rather hard evidence is offered on the causal relationship between economics and democracy according to granger tests economic development causes democracy but democracy does not cause economic development overall the various tests would seem to advance sharply the modeling of democratic performance

the fine structure of asset returns an empirical investigation we investigate the importance of diffusion and jumps in a new model for asset returns in contrast to standard models we allow for jump components displaying finite or infinite activity and variation empirical investigations of time series indicate that index dynamics are devoid of a diffusion component which may be present in the dynamics of individual stocks this leads to the conjecture confirmed on options data that the risk neutral process should be free of a diffusion component we conclude that the statistical and risk neutral processes for equity prices are pure jump processes of infinite activity and finite variation

rulers and the ruled patterned inequality and the onset of mass political violence the theory of patterned inequality between rulers and ruled provides a valuable analytic approach to the relationship between inequality and political violence under conditions of a bifurcated pattern of inequality the probability of political violence is likely to be greater than under a more generalized inequality typically measured by the gini index a strong systematic relationship between patterned inequality in latin american landholdings and deaths from political violence was discovered using the exponential distribution as a model for the lower portion of the land distribution and the log exponential for the upper this degree of association was far stronger than that found between the gini index of land inequality in latin america and deaths from political violence evidence supporting the theory was also found in an analysis of middle eastern landholdings

the impact of economic development on democracy any account of the social and economic conditions of democracy must come to terms with the central finding of the cross national statistical research a sturdy though not perfect association between economic development and democracy to tackle these questions of causation we adopted a strategy of analytic induction based on comparative historical research our program of comparative historical research confirmed the conclusion of the cross national statistical analyses of the correlates of political democracy the level of economic development is causally related to the development of political democracy however the underlying reason for the connection in our view is that capitalist development transforms the class structure enlarging the working and middle classes and facilitating their self organization thus making it more difficult for elites to exclude them politically simultaneously development weakens the landed upper class democracy s most consistent opponent

determinants of democracy a panel study of over 100 countries from 1960 to 1995 finds that improvements in the standard of living predict increase in democracy as measured by a subjective indicator of electoral rights the propensity for democracy rises with per capita gdp primary schooling and a smaller gap between male and female primary attainment for a given standard of living democaracy tends to fall with urbnization and with a greater reliance on natrual resources democracy has little relation to country size but rises with the middle class share of income the apparently strong relation of democracy to colonial heritage mostly disappears when the economic variables are held constant similarly the allowance for these economic variables weakens the interplay between democracy and religious affiliation however negative effects from muslim and non religious affiliations remain intact

inequality and political violence revisited in their 1987 article in this review muller and seligson used logged ordinary least squares lols to estimate the effect of income inequality on cross national levels of deaths by political violence t y wang challenges the robustness of the main conclusion and argues for the application of a maximum likelihood approach the exponential poisson regression epr model rather than lols he concludes that the widely used lols approach yields misleading conclusions when applied to event count data dixon muller and seligson replicate previous work using both lols and epr approaches and conclude that in most but not all respects the two approaches yield similar results supporting the effect of inequality when the specifications are identical they also argue in response to concerns expressed by brockett 1992 that the inequality results are robust when account is taken systematically of the best information on underreporting of deaths

parametric equivalence scales and scale relativities we respond to banks and johnson s 1994 comment on coulter et al 1992 drawing on a more general discussion of parametric equivalence scale and scale relativity issues and new empirical results we show that criticisms of our earlier work are unfounded when the mcclements scale is properly characterised the scale does indeed provide lower estimates of poverty and inequality levels than most other scales we reiterate our conclusion that relationships between scale relativities and inequality and poverty indices may be index specific moreover the picture about distributional trends may differ from that about levels

why did the west extend the franchise democracy inequality and growth in historical perspective during the nineteenth century most western societies extended voting rights a decision that led to unprecedented redistributive programs we argue that these political reforms can be viewed as strategic decisions by the political elite to prevent widespread social unrest and revolution political transition rather than redistribution under existing political institutions occurs because current transfers do not ensure future transfers while the extension of the franchise changes future political equilibria and acts as a commitment to redistribution our theory also offers a novel explanation for the kuznets curve in many western economies during this period with the fall in inequality following redistribution due to democratization i introduction the nineteenth century was a period of fundamental political reform and unprecedented changes in taxation and redistribution britain for example was transformed from an oligarchy run by an elite to a democracy the franchise was extended in 1832 and then again in 1867 and 1884 transferring voting rights to portions of the society with no previous political representation the decades after the political reforms witnessed radical social reforms increased taxation and the extension of education to the masses moreover as noted by kuznets inequality which was previously increasing started to decline during this period the gini coefficient for income inequality in england and wales had risen from 0 400 in 1823 to 0 627 in 1871 but fell to 0 443 in 1901 two key factors in the reduction in inequality were the increase in the proportion of skilled workers williamson 1985 and the redistribution of income toward the poorer segments of the society for example taxes rose from 8 12 percent of national product in 1867 to 18 8 percent by 1927 and the progressivity of the tax system increased substantially see lindert 1989

aging population problems and policy options in the us and germany aging population axel borsch supan the expected change in the age structure of the industrialized countries will lead to a dramatically higher proportion of older people in germany for example 100 employed persons now support about 40 elderly by 2030 this ratio will rise to 85 elderly people per 100 employed persons this process will deeply affect labour financial and housing markets it will strain the social security systems change the accumulation of aggregate wealth and skew its intergenerational distribution while imposing a growing burden on family support by the young generation when the elderly are becoming frail and unable to live independently this paper investigates the mechanisms at work in labour financial and housing markets drawing systematically on comparisons between german and us institutions to determine the role of taxes subsidies and regulations the evidence demonstrates that economic policies have powerful effects some of them are also currently distortionary and interact with existing market imperfections so that a serious consideration of policy options which may moderate the implications of population aging is called for

inequality and insurgency maldistribution of land in agrarian societies is commonly thought to be an important precondition of mass political violence and revolution others argue that because of the difficulty of mobilizing rural populations for political protest land maldistribution is irrelevant except as part of an inegalitarian distribution of income nationwide these rival inequality hypotheses have significant implications with respect to the kinds of reforms likely to reduce the potential for insurgency in a society they are tested using the most comprehensive cross national compilation of data currently available on land inequality landlessness and income inequality support is found for the argument that attributes the greater causal import to income inequality moreover the effect of income inequality on political violence is found to hold in the context of a causal model that takes into account the repressiveness of the regime governmental acts of coercion intensity of separatism and level of economic development

implications of an economic theory of conflict hindu muslim violence in india we model intergroup conflict driven by economic changes within groups we show that if group incomes are low increasing group incomes raises violence against that group and lowers violence generated by it we then apply the model to data on hindu muslim violence in india our main result is that an increase in per capita muslim expenditures generates a large and significant increase in future religious conflict an increase in hindu expenditures has a negative or no effect these findings speak to the origins of hindu muslim violence in post independence india

increasing returns human capital and the kuznets curve abstract we present a simple model of human capital accumulation which generates the kuznets curve as an equilibrium outcome the central ingredient that helps generate the kuznets curve in the model is what we call short run increasing returns to scale in the learning technology the learning technology exhibits increasing returns to scale but only in the short run since one of the factors of production time is bounded above by the endowment we show that short run increasing returns to scale is necessary to obtain the kuznets curve but not sufficient

cvar sensitivity with respect to tail thickness abstract the sensitivity of a risk measure with respect to the parameters of the hypothesized distribution is a useful tool in investigating the impact of marginal rebalancing decisions on the portfolio return distribution and also in the analysis of the asymptotic variability of the risk estimator we calculate the relative importance of the conditional value at risk cvar sensitivity with respect to tail thickness and scale of the portfolio return distribution in the case of regularly varying tails and in the case of exponential and faster than exponential decay we discuss the implications for asset return modeling and the asymptotic variability of the risk estimator

individual participation in collective racial violence a rational choice synthesis existing rational choice treatments of collective violence have consistently discounted the role of the public goods component of the individual s decision calculus about whether or not to participate in such acts by assuming free rider effects with respect to the public goods these theories are unable to account for the initial inception of violence or for the later nonlooting behaviors that constitute aspects of a riot and indeed are preconditions for the inception of looting the only riot behavior for which these theories can offer any explanation five dimensions of discrimination are defined in rational choice terms and their elimination or reduction is defined as the creation of a public good i use existing theories of individual contributions to the provision of public goods to demonstrate that free rider effects need not be assumed and that the inception of a riot and later nonlooting riot behaviors can best be explained as individual contributions to the provision of the public goods represented by the elimination of the several forms of discrimination

views of economic inequality in latin america the authors assess the factors that affect judgments about the fairness of the distribution of wealth with pooled public opinion data from latinobarometro surveys conducted in 1997 2001 and 2002

conflict war and redistribution this article analyzes the circumstances under which conflict leads to the outbreak of war using a formal model which incorporates both the redistribution of resources as an alternative to war and imperfect information countries act as rational agents concerned with both consumption and the public bad of a war in the first period both countries can either consume or build arms whereas in the second period there can be either the threat or the use of force to reallocate resources if both countries are fully informed then there will be no war but rather a voluntary redistribution of resources in a situation of asymmetric information however in which one country is fully informed and the other is not a war can occur if the uninformed country uses a separating equilibrium strategy precommitting itself to a positive probability of war in order to prevent bluffing by the informed country

generational accounting a new approach for understanding the effects of fiscal policy on saving working pa er 9107 generational accounting a new approach for understanding the effects of fiscal policy on saving by alan j auerbach jagadeesh gokhale and laurence j kotlikoff alan j auerbach is a professor of economics at the university of pennsylvania and an associate of the national bureau of economic research jagadeesh gokhale is an economist at the federal reserve bank of cleveland and laurence j kotlikoff is a professor of economics at boston university and an asso ciate of the national bureau of economic research working papers of the federal reserve bank of cleveland are preliminary materials circu lated to stimulate discussion and critical comment the views stated herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the federal reserve bank of cleveland or of the board of governors of the federal reserve sys tem may 1991

distributive politics and economic growth a crude distinction between economics and politics would be that economics is concerned with expanding the pie while politics is about distributing it in this paper we analyze the relationship between the two we focus on how an economy s initial configuration of resources shapes the political struggle for income and wealth distribution and how that in turn affects long run growth our main conclusion is that inequality is conducive to the adoption of growth retarding policies we derive this result from a simple political economy model of growth and present cross country evidence consistent with it the key feature of our model is that individuals differ in their relative factor endowments we distinguish between two types of factors an accumulated factor called capital and a nonaccumulated factor called labor growth is driven by the expansion of the capital stock which is in turn determined by individual saving decisions long run growth is endogenous as the aggregate production function is taken to be linearly homogeneous in capital and productive government services taken together the provision of government services is financed by a tax on capital because government services are productive a small tax on

income inequality and the taste for revolution abstract although property rights are the cornerstone of market economies throughout history existing claims have been frequently overturned by revolutions one unsettled question is whether income inequality affects the likelihood of revolt this paper takes an approach different from previous studies by introducing data derived from two surveys of revolutionary preferences across a quarter million randomly sampled individuals more people are found to have a preference for revolt when inequality in their nation is high a 1 standard deviation increase in the gini coefficient explains up to 38 percent of the standard deviation in revolutionary support the results hold after controlling for a set of personal characteristics and country and year fixed effects since higher levels of income are found to have a negative impact on the taste for revolt the results suggest that either going for growth or implementing policies that reduce inequality can buy off those individuals with revolutionary preferences

swords or plowshares a theory of the security of claims to property this paper develops a general equilibrium model of the allocation of resources among appropriative and productive activities the model emphasizes the distinction between offensive weapons which are the instruments of predation and fortifications which provide defense against predation the analysis of this model shows how the equilibrium security of claims to property is determined the analysis focuses on the possibility of a nonaggressive equilibrium in which no resources are allocated to offensive weapons and claims to property are fully secure we also analyze the complex relation between economic welfare and the security of claims to property we find for example that a relatively poor agent could be better off in an equilibrium with less secure claims to property

the taste for revolt abstract this paper tests for the characteristics affecting the revolutionary preferences of over 200 000 randomly sampled individuals from surveys taken over the 1970s to 1990s the chances of supporting revolt are higher if young lower in the income distribution or unemployed there are strong differences across ideological lines for people identifying with the religious right falling from the top to bottom income quartile increases the probability of supporting revolt by 2 percentage points whereas falling unemployed has no effect for those identifying with the non religious left both events increase the probability of supporting revolt by at least 5 percentage points

health and population patterns as indicators of income inequality describes an empirically and theoretically based surrogate measure of income inequality resulting from work with existing cross national aggregate data on health income and population patterns discusses the derivation of that measure and its similarity to conventional data on income distribution the analysis put forth is based on the simple notion that the impact of additonal income on individual behavior is different at different income levels this can occur either through a declining marginal impact of expenditures in meeting a particular goal or else when rising incomes cause a shift in goals as previous goals have been met in instances in which the impact of income on individual decisions is nonlinear the average outcome depends on the distribution of income among individuals as well as the mean income level the determinants of health care and of fertility are discussed in the context of their relationship to income distribution and to other control variables the relationships are stated mathematically and the equations manipulated such that income inequality can be predicted by the level of health in a society or by the level of fertility the accuracy of these new measures is discussed and it is concluded that for less developed countries and times where direct measures of income inequality are lacking this provides a good surrogate measure of inequality the limitations of the method are discussed

inequality and growth in the united states is there asymmetric response at the state level a previous study that tried to assess the impact of economic growth on income inequality in the u s used state level data and an ardl panel model to conclude that economic growth worsens income in

left government policy and corporatism explaining the influence of partisanship on inequality the author argues that to understand the relationship between partisan government and equality two fundamental things need to be done separate the effects of partisanship on policy and of policy on the economy and assess the influence of government partisanship once the mediating role of corporatism is accounted for the main goal of this article is to explore the relationship between government partisanship policy and inequality at the lower half of the wage distribution the analysis is motivated by a puzzling finding in previous work the absence of government partisanship effects on earnings inequality the author focuses on the role of three different policies government employment the generosity of the welfare state and minimum wages the results show that government employment is a most significant determinant of inequality although it is affected by left government only when corporatism is low they also demonstrate that welfare state generosity does not affect inequality and in turn is not associated with left government finally they reveal that the effect of government partisanship on minimum wages and of minimum wages on inequality is completely conditional on the levels of corporatism these effects are only present when corporatism is low the author explains why specific policies do or do not affect earnings inequality and also why corporatism mitigates or magnifies the influence of government partisanship by explicitly exploring the determinants of policy and earnings inequality the article represents an important contribution to our understanding of how governments can promote redistribution

crime and local inequality in south africa the authors examine the effects of local inequality on property and violent crime in south africa their findings are consistent with economic theories relating inequality to property crime and also with sociological theories that imply that inequality leads to crime in general burglary rates are 20 30 percent higher in police station jurisdictions that are the wealthiest among their neighbors suggesting that criminals travel to neighborhoods where the expected returns from burglary are highest the authors do not find evidence that inequality between racial groups fosters interpersonal conflict at the local level