the effect of imf lending on the probability of sovereign debt crises abstract this paper explores empirically how the adoption of imf programs affects sovereign risk over the medium term we find that imf programs significantly increase the probability of subsequent sovereign defaults by approximately 1 5 2 percentage points these results cannot be attributed to endogeneity bias as they are supported by specifications that explain sovereign defaults and program participation simultaneously furthermore imf programs turn out to be especially detrimental to fiscal solvency when the fund distributes its resources to countries whose economic fundamentals are already weak our evidence is therefore consistent with the hypothesis that debtor moral hazard is most likely to occur in these circumstances other explanations that point to the effects of debt dilution and the possibility of imf triggered debt runs however are also possible

the economic characteristics of imf program countries abstract a logit analysis is utilized to identify the factors that characterized developing nations that entered imf stabilization programs in the early 1980s program countries recorded higher rates of domestic credit growth larger shares of government expenditure more severe current account deficits smaller reserve holdings and lower per capita incomes

reforming the governance of the international monetary fund cacy of these initiatives depends upon the level of compliance by the fund s member countries democratising the fund will make the organisation s initiatives more effective as decisions produced by a democratic process have greater legitimacy and credibility amongst participating members the turn toward issues of global governance moves the imf reform debate beyond arguments about the proper size and scope of the fund realistic changes in the governance of the fund can be achieved by rationalising the fund s quota regime which forms the framework for the organisation s decision making process as well as the basis for allocating member contributions to the organisation s resources reforms based on broadly accepted principles will enhance the fund s legitimacy and accountability as a forum for global economic policy decision making a failure to reform the fund coupled with the recurrence of financial crises in the emerging market economies may hinder the growth of the global economy as processes of production are subordinate to the flows of financial capital financial crises have direct impacts on real economic activity moreover even though most financial crises are short lived they exert long term and asymmetric economic and social impacts on the lives of the most vulnerable members of the global economy recent financial crises and global economic trends have already mobilised non governmental organisations students and workers around the world

imf programs do they work can they be made to work better abstract a central issue in the debate about a new international financial architecture has been whether programs of policy reform supported by the international monetary fund work the fund claims that on balance they do because of their positive effect on the balance of payments others claim that programs are ineffective and suggest that they should be discontinued this paper reviews the econometric evidence dealing with the macroeconomic effects of imf programs it goes on to provide additional evidence and judges success against alternative criteria although the record is not good the paper argues that it would be unwise for the fund to cease lending and to abandon conditionality altogether imf programs need to be redesigned and refocused the paper concludes by identifying a number of principles that should underpin reform

catalyzing aid the imf and donor behavior in aid allocation the international monetary fund imf has often asserted that its programs encourage aid by signaling policy credibility commonly referred to as aid catalysis our study investigates this claim for sector specific aid and for bilateral and multilateral donors using data on 136 recipient countries for the 1986 2009 period we employ a two part quantitative model to match the donor decision making process consisting of a first stage recipient selection equation and a second stage allocation equation on selected recipients we find strong support that imf programs catalyze aid on aggregate but the evidence varies across different types of aid aid catalysis is stronger and more robust in sectors linked to the imf s core competency areas namely debt related relief and general budget support but weaker and less robust for infrastructure production multisector and humanitarian aid and non existent for health and education across donors imf programs are associated with increases in aid by countries with larger voting shares in the imf such as the united states and japan but less so by countries with few votes or for multilateral agencies this finding is consistent with research in international political economy arguing that the imf s powerful stakeholders drive the organization s decisions and policies taken together our findings emphasize the imf s multi dimensional impact on the global development agenda an erstwhile overlooked factor in studies of aid allocation while refuting the purported positive effects of imf programs on aid for social policy

the demand for imf credits by sub saharan african countries abstract in this paper the demand behaviour of sub saharan african countries for imf credits will be studied on the basis of pooled cross section and time series analysis it will be concluded that drawings on imf facilities are not a purely economic phenomenon

some theoretical and empirical issues relating to economic stabilization in developing countries abstract this paper surveys some issues relating to economic stabilization in developing countries section 2 examines the contributions of terms of trade deterioration and real exchange rate appreciation to payments imbalances in non oil developing countries during the 1970s section 3 distinguishes between demand side and supply side policies and discusses their respective roles in stabilization programmes the effects of exchange rate changes are considered within this framework in section 4 the effects of alternative stabilization policies on output prices and the balance of payments are illustrated using simulations of a model that incorporates the major relationships relevant to a typical programme section 5 summarizes the conclusions

a framework of economic analysis for tapered technology manufacturing alliances abstract globalization of production has altered the configuration of supply chains in many industries besides outsourcing joint ventures and strategic alliances are increasingly established to create competitive production organizations this paper addresses a case of tapered technology manufacturing alliance between a process technology firm with captive manufacturing capability and an efficient manufacturing firm in an asset heavy industry a framework of economic analysis is first developed for fusing the factors of technology licensing manufacturing efficiency risk sharing and demand uncertainty analysis methods of capacity economics are next described for participation analysis capacity allocation and contract term tradeoffs finally we demonstrate the utility of the methods by numerical examples with stylized industry data and by an analysis of alliance stability when facing potential new entrants

borrowing from the imf the policy implications of recent empirical research abstract at a time when the future of the international monetary fund is being widely debated a number of relevant and important studies have been published which advance our knowledge of the factors which determine borrowing from the fund there has been little attempt however to put this recent empirical research into context or to extract from it appropriate policy conclusions while dissent remains over some issues there is an emerging consensus on others which provides a firm empirical foundation for policy formulation unfortunately the policy stance adopted by the g7 is in many ways at odds with much of the recent empirical research

the imf a bird s eye view of its role and operations the international monetary fund imf is the world s premier international financial institution with 184 member countries and active programmes in a significant number of them at any one time the fund attracts a great deal of attention much of it critical but the discussion is often polemic in style strongly held but frequently opposing views are expressed this survey attempts to examine in an objective way the theory and evidence relating to the fund s operations many aspects of the empirical research are relatively recent and a universal consensus is yet to emerge as a consequence there is scope for disagreement to persist however the research is also gradually clarifying many important issues the format for the survey is to examine the life cycle of imf arrangements what makes a country turn to the fund for assistance should the imf be lending what influences the outcome of negotiations and the design of programmes are imf programmes effective and why do some countries make prolonged use of imf resources for completeness there is also some discussion of the history of the imf the extent to which fund policies have been influenced by advances in economic theory and the fund s systemic role important organisational and governance issues are also covered briefly although primarily adopting an economist s perspective the survey reflects the growing recognition that in order to understand the imf s operations economics has to be combined with politics examining the imf is an exercise in applied political economy copyright 2007 the author journal compilation 2007 blackwell publishing ltd

integrating distribution strategy and tactics a model and an application designing distribution systems requires two decisions one strategic i e the number of levels between the producer and the customer and the other tactical i e channel management policies such as trade discounts and rebates while the modeling literature focuses on one or the other evidence from the field indicates that the two decisions are in fact interactive in this paper we develop and then apply an integrated model that solves the strategic issue of channel levels and the tactical issue of price rebates simultaneously

the distributional effects of imf programs a cross country analysis abstract this paper measures the effects of 58 international monetary fund programs during 1975 91 on gini coefficients and income of the poorest quintile these variables are traced over the two to five years following program initiation this research also presents a new technique to control for differences in countries initial economic circumstances the study finds evidence of a significant deterioration in income distribution and the incomes of the poor in fund program countries relative to their nonprogram counterparts when pre program external imbalance is severe in cases where prior external imbalance is not as great countries participating in fund programs actually show relative improvements in distributional indicators

imf programmes is there a conditionality laffer curve the long standing debate over imf conditionality has received a new lease of life in the context of the debate over a new international financial architecture conditionality has increased in recent years and some proposals for reform envisage a continuation of this trend however by emphasising the importance of implementation as well as design it may be argued that increased conditionality will have a negative effect on final out turns there may be a conditionality laffer curve the policy issue is whether conditionality has reached or gone beyond its optimal level there is some evidence that is consistent with the claim that conditionality has become excessive

impact of efficiency investment and competition on low carbon manufacturing abstract low carbon economy has become a top agenda for many countries following the agreement in the paris meeting on climate change in this article we take price and emission sensitive demand into account and incorporate competition between the two rival manufacturers in the demand function this research takes more proactive actions incorporating carbon emissions in the strategic and operational decisions which complements the existing literature on low carbon manufacturing in which the carbon emissions attribute is often used as a constraint or only the single manufacturer s demand is considered based on game theory the pricing and carbon emissions reduction decisions are investigated our study contributes to the existing literature on low carbon manufacturing by specifically examining the impact of production efficiency carbon emissions reduction efficiency and market power structure on achieving low carbon manufacturing through the systematic analysis of optimal pricing and green technology investment decisions to improve the economic and environmental performance under different market power structures our findings provide valuable managerial implications which will help many manufacturing firms to make important strategic and operational decisions regarding low carbon manufacturing

effectiveness of imf supported stabilization programs in developing countries abstract this paper examines the effectiveness of fund supported stabilization programs by investigating whether the imf achieves its own objectives in such programs even though the fund s conditionality prescribes fiscal and monetary discipline in program countries the results of the empirical analysis show that the imf cannot impose its conditionality even during program years furthermore when successive interprogram periods are considered program countries enter a new program in a worse macroeconomic condition than they entered the previous program these results and the fact that stabilization programs have a revolving nature are inconsistent with the effectiveness of imf supported stabilization programs and may signal the existence of moral hazard

managing channel profits a channel of distribution consists of different channel members each having his own decision variables however each channel member s decisions do affect the other channel members profits and as a consequence actions a lack of coordination of these decisions can lead to undesirable consequences for example in the simple manufacturer retailer consumer channel uncoordinated and independent channel members decisions over margins result in a higher price paid by the consumer than if those decisions were coordinated in addition the ensuing suboptimal volume leads to lower profits for both the manufacturer and the retailer this paper explores the problems inherent in channel coordination we address the following questions what is the effect of channel coordination what causes a lack of coordination in the channel how difficult is it to achieve channel coordination what mechanisms exist which can achieve channel coordination what are the strengths and weaknesses of these mechanism what is the role of nonprice variables e g manufacturer advertising retailer shelf space in coordination does the lack of coordination affect normative implications from in store experimentation can quantity discounts be a coordination mechanism are some marketing practices actually disguised quantity discounts we review the literature and present a simple formulation illustrating the roots of the coordination problem we then derive the form of the quantity discount schedule that results in optimum channel profits this article was originally published in marketing science volume 2 issue 3 pages 239 272 in 1983

the influence of elections on imf programme interruptions using panel data for 104 countries between 1975 and 1998 this article tries to explain interruptions of imf programmes around election dates in the recipient countries on average programmes seem to be more likely to break down before elections this increase in interruption probabilities is however less severe in more democratic countries in true democracies interruption frequencies are even lower prior to elections while no other political variables than elections and democracy were found to influence compliance systematically programme interruptions are significantly more likely in countries with high government consumption high levels of short term debt and low gdp per capita at programme initiation

an analysis of drawings on the international monetary fund by developing countries the nature of relations between the imf and developing countries has come under close scrutiny in recent years this has partly been the result of the deteriorating economic situation in which a large number of non oil developing countries have found themselves a situation characterised by falling rates of economic growth increasing balance of payments deficits and rising debt service ratios and partly it has resulted from the particular but public experiences of a number of developing countries such as jamaica peru and tanzania in their dealings with the fund

the episodic and unpredictable nature of imf lending an empirical analysis having had excess lending capacity at the beginning of 2008 by the end of the year international monetary fund imf lending had increased and in anticipation of a further increase in the demand for fund assistance arguments were being put forward for a substantial increase in imf resources analysis of imf lending over a protracted period of time reveals considerable volatility using both bivariate and multiple regression estimation this paper investigates the determinants of imf lending and examines the extent to which it is predictable although some significant relationships are discovered many of them are unstable and time variant this makes it difficult to predict imf lending with any degree of confidence the paper goes on to examine briefly the policy implications of unpredictability it is critical of the ways in which the problem has been handled in the past and it offers what it argues is a preferable solution

on seeking to improve imf conditionality ing the international monetary fund imf lend to its member countries at a somewhat abstract level i would suggest that it could be defined as that of easing the external constraint on its member countries to the extent that such an easing can be expected to be advantageous to the world community as a whole it follows immediately that the eas ing has to be of the external constraint pro vided by liquidity rather than solvency since at best an easing of the solvency constraint involves a resource transfer that will leave the donors worse off while at worst a belief in endogeneity of the solvency constraint creates moral hazard problems that under mine the incentive for economic efficiency hence my conception of the principle that should be guiding the fund s lending policies is that they ease the external liquidity con straint to the degree that is generally ad vantageous while preserving the intertem

pricing strategy of environmental sustainable supply chain with internalizing externalities abstract the negative impact of business activities on resources and sustainability include pollution and environmental externalities which are becoming more severe and attracting worldwide attention this study investigates a mechanism for motivating supply chain members to collaboratively produce environmentally friendly products efps with an investment in pollution reduction and prevention and by considering environmental regulations and incentive policies from the perspective of supply chain members we focus on studying optimal pricing strategies for environmentally sustainable supply chains and the relationship between firm performance and environmental policy incentives by treating the efp as an investment project its economic feasibility can be evaluated in the context of the supply chain unlike traditional supply chain models in our model government policy incentives are shared within the supply chain through transfer price negotiations between manufacturers and suppliers this study addresses the impact of government policy incentives on value transition and profit allotment in the collaborative supply chain system

what is the economics of climate change a major review of the economics of climate change under the leadership of professor sir nicholas stern was announced at the end of july 2005 reporting to the united kingdom s chancellor of the exchequer and to the prime minister the stern review on the economics of climate change is due to report in autumn 2006 this article sets out some of the issues the review is considering

game theoretical perspectives on dual channel supply chain competition with price discounts and pricing schemes abstract this paper evaluates the impact of price discount contracts and pricing schemes on the dual channel supply chain competition channel conflict occurs when the supplier enters the online direct channel traditional contracts normally require tedious administrational participation full information of the cost structures and other factors the introduction of simple price discount contracts aims at providing easy implementation and effective coordination results from supplier stackelberg retailer stackelberg and nash game theoretic perspectives we show that the scenarios with price discount contracts can outperform the non contract scenarios in addition we show consistent pricing scheme can reduce the channel conflict by inducing more profit to the retailer the leader in the games might but is not guaranteed to have advantages

price competition for retailers with profit and revenue targets abstract price competition for retailers has been extensively studied in the literature assuming the objective of expected profit maximization in this paper we make a major contribution by studying price competition for retailers with both profit and revenue targets consequently each retailer maximizes her profit and revenue probability namely the probability of achieving the profit and revenue targets simultaneously more specifically we analyze a scenario where two competing retailers purchase a perishable product from a common supplier and sell to a common market employing the isoelastic demand model we derive the closed form solutions of the optimal order quantity the optimal selling price and the maximal profit and revenue probability for each retailer it is shown that when revenue is a relevant performance measure positive and non positive salvage values lead to different optima for competing retailers moreover as price elasticity and or price competition intensity becomes higher the optimal retail price decreases and the optimal order quantity increases for each retailer

the effect of imf programs on economic growth abstract using a bivariate dynamic version of the heckman selection model we estimate the effect of participation in international monetary fund imf programs on economic growth we find evidence that governments enter into agreements with the imf under the pressures of a foreign reserves crisis but they also bring in the fund to shield themselves from the political costs of adjustment policies program participation lowers growth rates for as long as countries remain under a program once countries leave the program they grow faster than if they had remained but not faster than they would have without participation

a public choice approach to international organization the purpose of this paper has been to develop a positive theory of international organization which can supplement the conventional normative theory used as a positive theory the conventional approach draws much of its plausibility from the fact that it relies on the reasons given by the decision makers and reported in the media and on the lofty objections stated in the charters of international agencies the public choice approach by its very nature is precluded from accepting such evidence in some respects it must appear dismal and perhaps cynical it is a positive theory which tries to explain but just as the conventional normative theory tends also to be used as a positive theory our positive theory is likely to have normative implications as well it does not imply that international organization is generally undesirable but it can be used to emphasize the advantages of decentralized policy making and to warn against a naive internationalism which welcomes international agreements for their own sake regardless of what is being agreed upon international organization can be and is abused and the cause is not an occasional lack of virtue among politicians but a systematic built in tendency toward collusion at the expense of the citizens such collusion is not only undesirable in itself there is also the danger that it discredits and crowds out unambiguously desirable forms of international cooperation agreements to remove non market obstacles to market interdependence in the field of international trade and capital movements

a supply chain model with direct and retail channels abstract we study a dual channel supply chain in which a manufacturer sells to a retailer as well as to consumers directly consumers choose the purchase channel based on price and service qualities the manufacturer decides the price of the direct channel and the retailer decides both price and order quantity we develop conditions under which the manufacturer and the retailer share the market in equilibrium we show that the difference in marginal costs of the two channels plays an important role in determining the existence of dual channels in equilibrium we also show that demand variability has a major influence on the equilibrium prices and on the manufacturer s motivation for opening a direct channel in the case that the manufacturer and the retailer coordinate and follow a centralized decision maker we show that adding a direct channel will increase the overall profit our numerical results show that an increase in retailer s service quality may increase the manufacturer s profit in dual channel and a larger range of consumer service sensitivity may benefit both parties in the dual channel our results suggest that the manufacturer is likely to be better off in the dual channel than in the single channel when the retailer s marginal cost is high and the wholesale price consumer valuation and the demand variability are low

catalysing private capital flows do imf programmes work as commitment devices in this article we examine whether imf programmes influence the ability of developing country issuers to tap international bond markets and if they improve spreads paid on the bonds issued we find that fund programmes do not provide a uniformly favourable signalling effect instead the evidence is most consistent with a positive effect of imf programmes when they are viewed as likely to lead to policy reform and when undertaken before economic fundamentals have deteriorated significantly the size of the fund s programme matters but the credibility of a joint commitment by the country and the imf appears to be critical enhancing its members access to international capital markets is widely regarded as an important objective of the international monetary fund imf or fund though the objective is not an explicitly stated purpose in the fund s articles of agreements the flow of international capital is essential to such stated purposes as the stability of the international monetary system efficient trade and productive resource use and to providing confidence when a member country experiences difficulties with its balance of payments 1 the fund s interest in private international capital flows has moreover increased over the last decade reflecting this evolution the fund s former managing

macroeconomic performance and adjustment under policies commonly supported by the international monetary fund the fundamental objective of any adjustment program whether supported by the international monetary fund imf or otherwise is to eliminate disequilibrium between aggregate demand and supply which is typically reflected in balance of payments deficits and rising prices in the past the imf stabilization programs were basically demand side the focus on the demand management is based on the absorption and especially the monetary approach to the balance of payments in recent years however the imf has recognized the importance of supply factors and thus adjustment programs include policy tools that deal with production bottlenecks ways to improve resource utilization and so forth this shift in policy does not however imply that the imf attaches less significance to demand than supply factors in his recent paper mohsen khan states that although supply shocks can cause disequilibrium between aggregate demand and supply often such imbalances can be traced to inappropriate policies that expand aggregate demand too rapidly relative to the growth of the productive capacity in the economy the purpose of this article is to examine directly the effects that a typical stabilization program may have on three important macroeconomic variables the growth rate in real output economic growth the inflation rate and the current account balance to provide some empirical foundation for the analysis the effects of such programs are illustrated through regression analysis three models that examine the relationship between relevant macroeconomic variables and the imf s instrumental tools are introduced the analysis covers 43 countries of which 27 are program countries that used imf financial resources during 1977 the period under study is 1977 83 during 1976 77 the

mail versus mall a strategic analysis of competition between direct marketers and conventional retailers consumers now purchase several offerings from direct sellers including catalog and internet marketers these direct channels exist in parallel with the conventional retail stores the availability of multiple channels has significant implications for the performance of consumer markets the literature in marketing and economics has however been dominated by a focus on the conventional retail sector this paper is an effort toward modeling competition in the multiple channel environment from a strategic viewpoint at the outset a parsimonious model that accommodates the following consumer and market characteristics is introduced first the relative attractiveness of retail shopping varies across consumers second the fit with the direct channel varies across product categories third the strength of existing retail presence in local markets moderates competition fourth in contrast with the fixed location of the retail store that anchors its localized market power the location of the direct marketer is irrelevant to the competitive outcome the model is first applied in a setting where consumers have complete knowledge of product availability and prices in all channels in the resulting equilibrium the direct marketer acts as a competitive wedge between retail stores the direct presence is so strong that each retailer competes against the remotely located direct marketer rather than against neighboring retailers this outcome has implications for the marketing mix of retailers which has traditionally been tuned to attract consumers choosing between retail stores in the context of market entry conditions under which a direct channel can access a local market in retail entry equilibrium are derived our analysis suggests that the traditional focus on retail entry equilibria may not yield informative or relevant findings when direct channels are a strong presence next the role of information in multiple channel markets is modeled this issue is particularly relevant in the context of direct marketing where the seller can typically control the level of information in the marketplace sometimes on a customer by customer basis e g by deciding on the mailing list for a catalog campaign when a certain fraction of consumers does not receive information from the direct marketer the retailers compete with each other for that fraction of the market the retailer s marketing mix has to be tuned in this case to jointly address direct and neighboring retail competition the level of information disseminated by the direct marketer is shown to have strategic implications and the use of market coverage as a lever to control competition is described even with zero information costs providing information to all consumers may not be optimal under some circumstances in particular when the product is not well adapted to the direct channel the level of market information about the direct option should ideally be lowered the only way to compete with retailers on a larger scale with a poorly adapted product is by lowering direct prices which lowers profits lowering market information levels and allowing retailers to compete more with each other facilitates a higher equilibrium retail price in turn this allows a higher direct price to be charged and improves overall direct profit on the other hand when the product is well adapted increasing direct market presence and engaging in greater competition with the retail sector yields higher returns the finding that high market coverage may depress profits raises some issues for further exploration first implementing the optimal coverage is straightforward when the seller controls the information mechanism as in the case of catalog marketing the internet in contrast is an efficient mechanism to transmit information but does not provide the sellers with such control over the level of market information a key reason is that the initiative to gather information on the internet lies largely with consumers the design and implementation of mechanisms to control aggregate information levels in electronic markets can therefore be an important theme for research and managerial interest second direct marketers have traditionally relied on the statistical analysis of customer records to decide on contact policies the analysis in this paper reveals that these policies can have significant strategic implications as well research that integrates the statistical and strategic aspects could make a valuable contribution the paper concludes with a discussion of issues for future research in multiple channel markets including avenues to model competition in settings with multiple direct marketers

macroeconomic effects of imf sponsored programs in latin america output costs program recidivism and the vicious cycle of failed stabilizations we investigate the effects of imf stabilization programs and the reasons behind the unusually high imf activity and relatively low program completion rates in latin america we base our tests on a panel and distinguish between imf program approvals and completion we find that latin america has higher output costs of imf programs especially when completed no improvement in the current account and a much higher likelihood of program failure and recidivism than other regions the common finding that entering into an imf supported program incurs real short run costs on the economy is entirely driven by the experiences in latin america

restructuring the imf s lending facilities the imf has recently completed a review of its lending facilities as a consequence of which it has implemented a number of reforms by examining the fund s basic functions this paper offers a critical appraisal of these reforms it is argued that more radical change is needed building on the liquidity and adjustment roles of the imf the reforms advocated here would reverse the proliferation of imf lending facilities that is to be observed since the early 1960s

many happy returns recidivism and the imf abstract imf programs are designed to provide a temporary source of finance for countries with balance of payments disequilibria consequently borrowing from the imf should occur infrequently and be widely distributed among member countries however some countries are recurrent users of fund resources this paper investigates which variables account for multiple borrowings from the imf we use models of count data to examine the impact of the need for financing domestic policies external shocks and structural and institutional factors on borrowings between 1980 and 1996 we find that recidivist borrowers have lower reserve holdings larger current account deficits and capital outflows lower but less volatile terms of trade larger debt service and external debt ratios lower investment rates and per capita income and weak governance

when and how is the internet likely to decrease price competition conventional wisdom seems to claim that by lowering the cost of distribution and by making search easier for consumer the introduction of the internet is likely to intensify price competition this paper intends to challenge this view by asking when and how is the internet likely to decrease the level of price competition between firms to answer this question we develop an analytic model with the following characteristics on the demand side consumers need to gather information on two types of product attributes digital attributes which can be communicated on the web at very low cost and nondigital attributes for which physical inspection of the product is necessary consumers choose between two brands but are familiar with the nondigital attributes of only the brand purchased on the last purchase occasion on the supply side firms use traditional stores and the internet to inform consumers about their products attributes and to sell their products in this setup we show that the impact of the internet on competition will be radically different depending on the relative importance of parameters describing the relevant shopping and distribution context specifically we find that the introduction of the internet might lead to monopoly pricing when 1 the proportion of internet users is high enough 2 when nondigital attributes are relevant but not overwhelming 3 when consumers have a more favorable prior about the brand they currently own and 4 when the purchase situation can be characterized by destination shopping more surprising we also show that in such cases the use of the internet not only leads to higher prices but can also discourage consumers from engaging in search as such an important message of the paper is that under some conditions the internet might represent an opportunity for firms to leverage their brand loyalty and increase their profits the intuition behind our results is the following the internet allows consumers to evaluate digital attributes easily i e without visiting the stores however nondigital attributes can only be evaluated through physical presence as such for goods where both types of attributes are important the introduction of the net changes the effective cost of search for consumers without the internet the cost of search is the cost of visiting more than one store with the introduction of the net however nonsearching consumers do not have to undertake the shopping trip at all because they can order products on the net thus in the presence of the internet the cost of search is related to the cost of undertaking the entire shopping trip in the case of destination shopping i e when the fixed cost of undertaking the shopping trip is higher than the cost of visiting an additional store the presence of the internet creates higher effective search costs for consumers given this shift of paradigm in search costs due to the internet consumers may not take the risk of searching for products with better nondigital attributes but instead remain with the product they are familiar with this results in increased consumer loyalty which induces firms to increase their prices our results have important managerial implications first they provide guidelines for firms on when i e for which product categories they should consider expanding their distribution network to the internet in this respect an important additional insight of the paper is that the internet can lower price competition and lead to reduced consumer search even if it is more expensive than the traditional distribution channel this can easily be the case if distribution through the internet represents additional costs such as the costs associated with shipping and handling and return policies second the paper also provides guidelines on how to plan the firm s internet strategy interestingly the results suggest that with the general availability of the internet the role of stores might actually become more important while we do not explicitly model a dynamic market our findings together with klemperer s 1987 results suggest that stores might have a key role in consumer acquisition while the internet can help leverage the acquired customer base through demand fulfillment this might imply that for certain product categories firms should actually allocate additional resources to improve their in store environment when considering the internet as a complementary distribution channel

money talks supplementary financiers and international monetary fund conditionality what explains the changes in international monetary fund imf conditionality i argue that imf conditionality agreements are influenced by supplementary financiers the imf regularly relies on external financing to supplement its loans to countries facing payments imbalances as a result these supplementary financiers are able to exercise leverage over the imf and the design of its conditionality programs i consider the influence of one type of supplementary financier private financial institutions on imf conditionality conclusions are supported by a data set of 249 conditionality arrangements coded according to their terms and two case studies

the political economy of imf lending in africa why has imf lending achieved such poor results in africa is it because the fund imposes the wrong conditions or because it fails to enforce them analysis of monthly data on 53 african countries from 1990 to 2000 shows that the imf s loans for reform contract lacks credibility because donor countries intervene to prevent rigorous enforcement countries that have influence with developed country patrons as measured by u s foreign aid membership in postcolonial international institutions and voting profiles in the un are subject to less rigorous enforcement shorter program suspensions they have more frequent program suspensions because they violate their conditions more often the imf will have to become more independent in order to become an effective champion of reform

aids is not a business a study in global corporate responsibility securing access to low cost hiv medications at the end of the 1990s brazil was faced with a potentially explosive hiv aids epidemic through an innovative and multifaceted campaign and despite initial resistance from multinational pharmaceutical companies the government of brazil was able to negotiate price reductions for hiv medications and develop local production capacity thereby averting a public health disaster using interview data and document analysis the authors show that the exercise of corporate social responsibility can be viewed in practice as a dynamic negotiation and an interaction between multiple actors action undertaken in terms of voluntary csr alone may be insufficient this finding highlights the importance of a strong role for national governments and international organizations to pressure companies to perform better

the effects of imf programs in the third world debate and evidence from latin america abstract this article reviews the debate about the effects of imf sponsored stabilization programs in the third world after examining recent studies by fund economists results of a new study on a latin american country set are presented in this research imf programs are associated with insignificant changes in the current account significant improvements in the overall balance of payments increases in inflation mixed effects on growth and a strong and consistent pattern of reduction in labor share of income the latter result is incorporated into a distribution oriented critique of fund policy

economic crisis and policy choice the politics of adjustment in the third world the acute economic pressures of the 1980s have forced virtually all of latin america and africa and some countries in asia into painful austerity programs and difficult economic reforms scholars have intensively analyzed the economics of this situation but they have given much less attention to the political forces involved in this volume a number of eminent contributors analyze the politics of adjustment in thirteen countries and nineteen governments drawing comparisons not only across the full set of cases but also within clusters selected to clarify specific issues why do some governments respond promptly to signs of economic trouble while others muddle indecisively for years why do some confine their response to temporary macroeconomic measures while others adopt broader even sweeping programs of reform what leads some countries to experiment with heterodox approaches while most however reluctantly pursue orthodox courses why confronted with intense political protest have some governments persisted while others have altered or abandoned course the answers to these questions are political not economic and they are examined here by thomas m callaghy stephan haggard miles kahler robert r kauman joan m nelson and barbara stallings

direct marketing indirect profits a strategic analysis of dual channel supply chain design the advent of e commerce has prompted many manufacturers to redesign their traditional channel structures by engaging in direct sales the model conceptualizes the impact of customer acceptance of a direct channel the degree to which customers accept a direct channel as a substitute for shopping at a traditional store on supply chain design the customer acceptance of a direct channel can be strong enough that an indepent manufacturer would open a direct channel to compete with its own retailers here direct marketing is used for strategic channel control purposes even though it is inefficient on its own and surprisingly it can profit the manufacturer even when so direct sales occur specifically we construct a price setting game between a manufacturer and its independent retailer direct marketing which indirectly increases the flow of profits through the retail channel helps the manufacturer improve overall profitability by reducing the degree of inefficient price double marginalization while operated by the manufacturer to constrain the retailer s pricing behavior the direct channel may not always be detrimental to the retailer because it will be accompanied by a wholesale price reduction this combination of manufacturer pull and push can benefit the retailer in equilibrium finally we show that the mere threat of introducing the direct channel can increase the manufacturer s negotiated share of cooperative profits even if price efficiency is obtained by using other business practices

when should a manufacturer set its direct price and wholesale price in dual channel supply chains abstract applying an observable delay game framework developed in noncooperative game theory we investigate the timing problem concerning when a manufacturer managing dual channel supply chains consisting of a retail channel and a direct channel should post its wholesale price and direct price conventionally operational research models describing dual channel supply chains examine price competition where the retailer and the manufacturer simultaneously determine the retail and direct prices respectively in contrast to this conventional setting our model demonstrates that such simultaneous price competition never arises if the manufacturer and retailer can choose not only the level of the price but also the timing of pricing if the manufacturer sets the direct price after setting the wholesale price to the retailer the retailer accelerates the timing of retail pricing prior to the direct price setting by the manufacturer our findings suggest that the manufacturer should post the direct price before or upon but not after setting the wholesale price for the retailer this upfront posting of the direct price not only constitutes the subgame perfect nash equilibrium of the noncooperative game between channel members but also maximizes the profits for a manufacturer employing multichannel sales strategies

the high politics of imf lending analysts have long suspected that politics affects the lending patterns of the international monetary fund imf but none have adequately specified or systematically tested competing explanations this paper develops a political explanation of imf lending and tests it statistically on the developing countries between 1985 and 1994 it finds that political realignment toward the united states the largest power in the imf increases a country s probability of receiving an imf loan a country s static political alignment position has no significant impact during this period suggesting that these processes are best modeled dynamically an analysis of two subsamples rejects the hypothesis that the imf has become less politicized since the end of the cold war and suggests that the influence of politics has actually increased since 1990 the behavior of multilateral organizations is still driven by the political interests of their more powerful member states

channel coordination when retailers compete this paper explores channel coordination by a manufacturer that sells through competing retailers and that treats these retailers equally as required by the robinson patman act the authors show that in general there exists no single two part tariff with a constant per unit charge that will duplicate the behavioral results i e prices quantities and channel profits that are obtained by a vertically integrated system that is the channel cannot be coordinated except in the trivial cases of identical or noncompeting retailers however an appropriately specified quantity discount schedule will enable the channel to earn the same profits generated by a vertically integrated system conditions are derived under which a manufacturer will prefer to offer various two part tariffs with constant per unit charges instead of the channel coordinating quantity discount schedule the authors also establish the existence of a menu of two part tariffs that mimics all results of a vertically integrated system however only under stringent conditions will retailers select the appropriate tariff from the menu when these conditions are not satisfied the channel is worse off than in the case of a single second best tariff it is also demonstrated that under a wide range of parametric values the manufacturer will prefer to offer the second best two part tariff rather than a menu of two part tariffs that could maximize channel profits

nash game model for optimizing market strategies configuration of platform products in a vendor managed inventory vmi supply chain for a product family this paper discusses how a manufacturer and its retailers interact with each other to optimize their product marketing strategies platform product configuration and inventory policies in a vmi vendor managed inventory supply chain the manufacturer procures raw materials from multiple suppliers to produce a family of products sold to multiple retailers multiple types of products are substitutable each other to end customers the manufacturer makes its decision on raw materials procurement platform product configuration product replenishment policies to retailers with vmi price discount rate and advertising investment to maximize its profit retailers in turn consider the optimal local advertising investments and retail prices to maximize their profits this problem is modeled as a dual simultaneous non cooperative game as a dual nash game model with two sub games one is between the retailers serving in competing retail markets and the other is between the manufacturer and the retailers this paper combines analytical iterative and ga genetic algorithm methods to develop a game solution algorithm to find the nash equilibrium a numerical example is conducted to test the proposed model and algorithm and gain managerial implications

economic determinants of imf financial arrangements abstract we analyze factors that lead to imf approval of financial arrangements we account for both economic variables that induce a country to seek an imf arrangement demand side factors and macroeconomic policy commitments that the imf considers when deciding whether to approve it supply side factors using a pooled sample of annual observations for 91 developing countries over 1973 1991 we obtain maximum likelihood bivariate and univariate probit estimates of the approval of an imf arrangement for a given country in a given year a number of demand side and supply side variables are statistically significant determinants of the approval of an imf arrangement

benchmarking and transparency incentives for the pharmaceutical industry s corporate social responsibility with over 2 billion people lacking medicines for treatable diseases and 14 million people dying annually from infectious disease there is undeniable need for increased access to medicines there has been an increasing trend to benchmark the pharmaceutical industry on their corporate social responsibility csr performance in access to medicines benchmarking creates a competitive inter business environment and acts as incentive for improving csr this article investigates the corporate feedback discourses pharmaceutical companies make in response to criticisms from benchmarking reports it determines whether these responses are part of a healthy process in increasing access to medicines or a barrier to improvement a qualitative analysis on the feedback the industry provided was performed and the responses seen in these statements were grouped by analysing the language used the ideas portrayed and atti tudes of the companies increasing transparency through benchmarking is a powerful tool which reveals the industry s shortfalls to the public affects the decisions of socially responsible investors and is a risk to their financial bottom line this article demonstrates the importance of benchmarking and transparency in creating inter business competition and the translation of these responses to actual access to medicine practices

imf lending programs participation and impact abstract participation in imf programs has been an option that more and more developing countries have exercised in recent years in this paper a detailed analysis of such participation over the period 1976 1986 provides a number of insights into the motivations for and the macroeconomic effects of such participation participation is driven by a combination of past performance present external influences and sluggish adjustment of developing countries the ability to predict which countries will participate in the imf program is quite good with nearly 90 percent of variation in such choices accounted for by the explanatory variables employed increased participation has as contemporaneous effects a reduction in economic growth and domestic investment and an improvement in the current account lagged effects of increased participation on economic growth and domestic investment are positive and in most estimates quantitatively greater than the contemporaneous effects there is also evidence of significantly lower public investment an increased budget surplus and real depreciation of the exchange rate with increased participation results for domestic credit creation and government current expenditure although they have a sign consistent with more austere policy cannot be shown to be significantly different from those not participating

corporate responsibilities for access to medicines today there is a growing wave of demands being placed upon the pharmaceutical industry to contribute to improved access to medicines for poor patients in the developing countries 1 this article aims to contribute to the development of a systematic approach and broad consensus about shared benchmarks for good corporate practices in this area a consensus corridor on what constitutes an appropriate portfolio of corporate responsibilities for access to medicines especially under conditions of failing states and market failure 2 is not only in the interest of the world s poor but also of corporations that want to contribute to the solution of one of the most significant social problems of our time

a game theoretic approach for green and non green product pricing in chain to chain competitive sustainable and regular dual channel supply chains abstract nowadays sustainable supply chain has become an exciting concept during the academic societies this paper considers environmental and economic aspect of sustainability due to environmental concerns the entry of green products into today s markets is on the rise how to compete for the production of green products with non green products is essential in these markets therefore this research focuses on the pricing and determination of the degree of greenness of a product in competition with a non green product this study for the first time investigates the pricing of two substitute products a green product produced by one manufacturer and a non green product produced by a second manufacturer under two dual channel supply chains including retail and internet channels the decision variables for one manufacturer are the price and degrees of eco friendliness of the green product for the other the decision variable is the price of the non green product this problem is solved under two different scenarios centralized and decentralized in the decentralized scenario a stackelberg competition is considered between the retailer level and the manufacturer level of the total supply chains in which the manufacturers are assumed to be the leader and the retailers are the followers in the centralized scenario players in each of their related supply chain are integrated the problem is solved and compared under two scenarios finally both parametric and numerical analyses are presented and some managerial insights are provided and some of which are as follows the centralized scenario cause to achieve high the green degree comparing with the decentralized scenario

procurement strategies and coordination mechanism of the supply chain with one manufacturer and multiple suppliers abstract this paper investigates the coordination mechanism for supply chain with one manufacturer and multiple competing suppliers in the electronic market we first study two conventional price only policies including wholesale price policy and catalog policy based on the reverse vickrey auction and show that both the buyer and the powerful suppliers with production cost less than a special threshold value prefer catalog policy to wholesale price policy and the powerless suppliers prefer wholesale price policy to catalog policy simultaneously neither policy can coordinate the channel composed of the manufacturer and the winning supplier we also show that a quantity discount policy cannot coordinate the supply chain with competing suppliers unless a kind of restriction is imposed the aim of the paper is to explore a coordination mechanism i e the price restricted quantity discount policy pareto analysis indicates that the manufacturer and the winning supplier will realize the win win situation and the channel can also be coordinated a key managerial implication of our study is that additional restrictive condition may be necessary to eliminate system inefficiency some numerical examples are also given to illustrate management insights

independent actor or agent an empirical analysis of the impact of u s interests on international monetary fund conditions abstract in this paper we analyze whether international monetary fund imf conditionality is exclusively designed to be in line with observable economic indicators or whether it is partly driven by the imf s major shareholder the united states a panel data analysis of 206 letters of intent from 38 countries submitted during the period april 1997 through february 2003 revealed that the number of conditions on an imf loan depended on a borrowing country s voting pattern in the un general assembly closer allies of the united states and other group of 7 g7 countries received imf loans with fewer conditions especially prior to elections these results are relevant to current public policy debates on the role and process of setting imf loan conditions and provide broader insight into the influence of the united states and other g7 countries on international institutions

a model for analyzing multi channel distribution systems to capture customers in different market segments many firms distribute their products using multiple channels involving in store mail order and electronic mediums nevertheless the business literature is replete with examples where the management of multiple distribution channels becomes unwieldy as a way to evaluate different distribution strategies arising from multiple channels we develop a model of a general multi channel distribution system subject to stochastic demand since the exact analysis of our model is intractable we propose a decomposition scheme that enables us to develop a near optimal distribution policy with minimum total expected distribution cost we utilize our analysis of this multi channel system in two specific applications arising from multi channel distribution the first application deals with a store based retailer expanding into a direct sales channel the retailer can fill the orders generated from this additional sales channel by using the existing stores or the existing depots for this application we evaluate the trade off between these two options the second application intends to find a cost effective way to distribute products by utilizing the combined distribution system of two retailers after a potential merger and acquisition m a for this application we quantify the benefit of an m a in terms of distribution efficiency

do multinationals deteriorate developing countries export prices the impact of fdi on net barter terms of trade this paper explores the economic relationship between foreign direct investment fdi to developing countries and the export prices of the latter measured by terms of trade it is rst shown that economic theory suggests such a relationship for various reasons but is inconclusive about the direction of the eect to address this open issue empirically i analyze data on more than 50 developing countries throughout the period 1980 2008 using robust dynamic panel data methods the results show that fdi had an economically relevant and statistically signicant positive impact on developing countries net barter terms of trade a higher level of education in the developing country fosters this eect

pricing decisions for complementary products with firms different market powers abstract this article reports the results of a study that explores the pricing problems with regard to two complementary products in a supply chain with two manufacturers and one common retailer the authors establish five pricing models under decentralized decision cases including the ms bertrand ms stackelberg rs bertrand rs stackelberg and ng models with consideration of different market power structures among channel members by applying a game theoretical approach corresponding analytic solutions are obtained then by comparing the maximum profits and optimal pricing decisions obtained in different decision cases interesting and valuable managerial insights are established

over optimism and the imf one way of assessing the impact of imf programmes is to see whether performance and policy targets are achieved however does a failure to hit targets mean that the programmes have been unsuccessful or could it be that targets have been too ambitious this paper analyses political economy factors impinging on governments and on the imf that may lead to serial over optimism it goes on to examine the empirical evidence that is consistent with over optimism having considered whether over optimism is a cause for concern and concluded that it is the paper considers reforms that would allow realism to replace it by eliminating over optimism it is argued that the psychology of failure surrounding imf programmes could be significantly reduced or even broken

elevating the role of divestment in socially responsible investing the divest movement has focused attention on strategic and ethical differences in the practice of socially responsible investing sri and highlighted an unnecessary bifurcation of best of class engagement and divestment although best of class engagement is favored as a contemporary and pragmatic approach this paper calls for a more pronounced recognition of absolute dealbreakers and divestment as an underpinning for best of class engagement after linking divestment and best of class engagement to their foundations of absolutism and relativism respectively i critique best of class engagement and argue that without a distinct and explicit role for divestment best of class strategies are ethically and strategically fraught following a discussion of which types of issues suggest divestment or best of class engagement i identify the norway government pension fund as a noteworthy example and posit that divestment and engagement are best presented and employed in tandem particularly for issues that have yet to be addressed by law and convention

what explains the success or failure of structural adjustment programs in the 1980s development assistance shifted largely from financing investments such as roads and dams to promoting policy reform this change came because of a growing awareness that developing countries were held back more by poor policies than by a lack of finance for investment after nearly 20 years experience with policy based or conditional lending there have now been many studies of adjustment lending most of which take a case study approach many conclude that policy based lending works if countries have decided on their own to reform the authors examine a database of 220 world bank supported reform programs to identify why adjustment programs succeed or fail they find that a few political economy variables can successfully predict the outcome of an adjustment loan 75 percent of the time variables under the world bank s control resources devoted to preparation and supervision or number of conditions have no relationship with an adjustment program s success or failure what development agencies must do then is select promising candidates for adjustment support when the candidates is a poor selection devoting more administrative resources or imposing more conditions will not increase the likelihood of successful reform to improve its success rate with adjustment lending the world bank must become more selective and do a better job of understanding which environments are promising for reform and which are not that is likely to lead to fewer adjustment loans unless there is a significant change in the number of promising reformers to become more effective at supporting policy reform the agency must be willing to accept that this may lead to smaller volumes of lending

evaluating the effect of imf lending to low income countries the purpose of this paper is twofold to apply to a group of low income borrowers from the imf the most commonly used technique for measuring the independent effects on economic developments of imf support and to develop a minimum set of diagnostic tests for determining whether necessary conditions for using the methodology exist the modified control group methodology is used to measure the effect of imf support on three key variables output growth inflation and the external debt rservice ratio the sample comprises adjustment programs begun during 1986 1991 supported by the imf s enhanced structural adjustment facility esaf the distinguishing feature of the modified control group approach is the estimation of a policy counterfactual policies that would have been followed in the absence of imf support against which to compare actual policies and resulting outcomes using this approach for the esaf the sample reveals statistically significant beneficial effects of imf support on output growth and the debtrservice ratio but no effects on inflation diagnostic tests of these results rarely if ever reported in the literature are shown to be critical in interpreting the validity of the results of assessments of adjustment lending for this sample at least the diagnostic tests cast doubt on the reliability of estimates of the effects of imf supported programs using panel data in a modified control group model the most obvious and manageable modifications to the

a stackelberg model of pricing of complementary goods under information asymmetry abstract we consider a duopoly market where two separate firms offer complementary goods in a leader follower type move each firm has private forecast information about the uncertain market demand and decides whether to share it with the other firm we show that information sharing would benefit the leader firm but hurt the follower firm as well as the total system if the follower firm shares information unconditionally we then devise a simple to implement information sharing scheme under which both firms and the total system are better off we also provide several interesting managerial insights and establish the robustness of the model in managing a supply chain through our analytical and simulation results

note on self restraint as an online entry deterrence strategy we develop a game theoretical model to show that in the markets where price consistency across channels is critical an incumbent brick and mortar retailer can deter the online entry of a pure play e tailer by strategically refraining from entering online in the markets where price consistency is not a constraint we find that the incumbent can deter the e tailer s entry only if it enters online and credibly operates the online channel as an independent profit center in other words the incumbent must be willing to cannibalize its own brick and mortar business by charging a low online price we also discuss some social welfare implications of retail online entry and the managerial insights of our analysis

catalytic finance when does it work in a model of debt crisis caused partly by creditor coordination failure we show that bailouts that reduce ex post inefficiency will sometimes enhance the incentives for governments to take costly adjustment effort this model helps us understand a debate about the role of the imf in catalyzing lending to developing countries

the economic impact of short term imf engagement in low income countries summary this study estimates the economic impact of imf supported programs addressing policy and exogenous shocks in low income countries lics using the propensity score matching approach focusing on a more homogenous group of financing events greatly improves the specification and predictive power of the selection model as compared to earlier studies which is the key requirement to control for selection bias this paper looks into a wide range of potential economic and political determinants of participation lower reserve coverage deterioration in the current account balance a weaker real gdp growth increased macroeconomic instability evident in higher fiscal deficits inflation and exchange market pressures and lagged elections would increase the probability of participation i e propensity scores moreover global conditions including changes in real oil and non oil commodity prices and world trade are also significant therefore adverse global shocks could create cycles in demand for imf financing the short term imf engagement is positively associated with a wide range of macroeconomic outcomes notably the impact on the short term growth is the greatest and becomes significant only for lics facing substantial macroeconomic imbalances or large exogenous shocks when matching accounts for propensity scores and institutional quality program countries in this group have changes in growth 1 5 and 3 5 percentage points higher than the control group

game theoretic pricing and ordering decisions with partial lost sales in two stage supply chains abstract few papers have studied the optimal pricing and ordering with partial lost sales from a two stage game theoretic perspective this paper considers a supply chain game with a buyer and a seller through pricing and ordering models with partial lost sales we evaluate the optimal solutions for the buyer and the seller and provide insights into both the deterministic and stochastic demand models we also propose search algorithms to obtain the global optimum when convexity and concavity conditions are not satisfied

the effect of imf programs on labor abstract previous studies find that imf programs have negative effects on income distribution the international monetary fund and latin america economic stabilization and class conflict westview press boulder 1987a world dev 15 1987b 365 world dev 28 2000 1031 no study however has used parametric methods to control for nonrandom selection using a dynamic version of the heckman selection model i study the effect of imf programs on the labor share of income from manufacturing my conclusions are supported by 2 095 observations of 110 countries during 1961 93

the corporate social performance financial performance link strategic managers are consistently faced with the decision of how to allocate scarce corporate resources in an environment that is placing more and more pressures on them recent scholarship in strategic management suggests that many of these pressures come directly from sources associated with social issues in management rather than traditional arenas of strategic management using a greatly improved source of data on corporate social performance this paper reports the results of a rigorous study of the empirical linkages between financial and social performance corporate social performance csp is found to be positively associated with prior financial performance supporting the theory that slack resource availability and csp are positively related csp is also found to be positively associated with future financial performance supporting the theory that good management and csp are positively related 1997 by john wiley sons ltd