the demand for food products an analysis of interpurchase times and purchased quantities in this paper we study household purchase behaviour of storable food products an inventory model is developed in which the household chooses an optimal stock level of the product storage of the product is costly there is a fixed cost per purchase occasion and the market price is sometimes discounted because of price promotions we show that the optimal purchase policy is an s s policy the model is used to derive predictions on the correlations between interpurchase times and purchased quantities on the one hand and prices on the other these predictions are empirically verified using consumer panel data

oil and gas markets in the uk evidence from a cointegrating approach the paper examines the relationship between uk wholesale gas prices and the brent oil price over the period 1996 2003 in order to investigate whether oil and gas prices decoupled during this period as orthodox gas market liberalisation theory suggests tests for unit roots and cointegration are carried out and it is discovered that a long run equilibrium relationship between uk gas and oil prices exists moreover this relationship pre dates the opening of the uk mainland europe interconnector following a recursive methodology hansen h and johansen s 1999 some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated var models econometrics journal 2 306 333 it was found that the cointegrating relationship is present throughout the sample period however the long run solutions seem to be more volatile evidence is provided that the short run relationship is linear and impulse response functions are used to examine the effects that a shock in oil would have on gas these findings do not support the assumption that gas prices and oil prices decouple

modeling food consumption decisions as a two step process this article evaluates the suitability of tobit analysis of food consumption patterns by comparing results generated by a tobit model and a modification with a two step decision process two samples of adult women were selected from the 1977 78 nationwide food consumption survey and the 1985 continuing survey of food intakes by individuals results show strong statistical evidence for questioning tobit analysis in examining food consumption decisions determinants of the decision to consume food within a particular food group often differ from the determinants of how much to consume particularly for more highly defined food groupings analysis of u s food consumption patterns and their dietary aspects with respect to consumer behavior has a long history traditionally ordinary least squares ols or some variant has been used in many studies where ols was not appropriate the tobit method was applied tobit allows for a discrete mass point for observations as well as a continuous range of values for the dependent variable this nonlinear method has yielded good results in a variety of studies e g mccracken and brandt lane and devaney and fraker this article examines the suitability of the tobit method for analysis of food consumption patterns the tobit method assumes that the decision to consume a given food item is the same as the decision about the amount of the food to consume ignoring the two step nature of the decision process may hamper understanding of true behavioral patterns lead to erroneous conclusions and generate incorrect policy recommendations this article compares results generated by a tobit model and a modification with a two step decision process in the next section the statistical methods used to test whether food consumption is a one or two step decision process are described the following sections discuss the variables and data present the results and consider the conclusions

a double hurdle approach to modelling tobacco consumption in italy this article analyzes the determinants of tobacco expenditures for a sample of italian households a box cox double hurdle model adjusted for heteroscedasticity is estimated to account for separate individual decisions concerning smoking participation and tobacco consumption and to correct for nonnormality in the bivariate distribution of the error terms nested univariate and bivariate models are found to be excessively restrictive supporting the adequacy of a generalized specification estimation results show that consumption decisions are significantly affected by income and demographic characteristics in particular income positively impacts tobacco expenditure while participation probability substantially declines as age increases the existence of significant gender differences in both smoking participation and tobacco consumption patterns is found while high education and white collar occupation reduces the likelihood to smoke and tobacco expenditure levels single adult households have a lower

estimating consumption from expenditure data abstract most studies of distributional issues have focused on the distribution of income but the income information usually available suffers from well known deficiencies this paper explores an alternative approach to distributional analysis based instead on expenditure data in many countries including the united kingdom available household budget data provides information on expenditures only over a short period the problems that consequently arise in interpreting data of this sort are emphasised a general specification for the stochastic structure of expenditure data is presented and a procedure for estimating participant households underlying consumption from their observed expenditures developed and discussed

demand systems estimation with microdata a censored regression approach demand systems estimation increasingly makes use of household level microdata mainly to measure the effects of demographic variables data based on these household expenditure surveys present a major estimation problem for any given household many of the goods have zero consumption implying a censored dependent variable techniques which do not take this censored dependent variable into account will yield biased results we utilize a censored regression approach that is computationally simple consistent and asymptotically efficient the results are then presented and compared with those obtained using an uncensored technique

estimating the probability of trade union membership a study of men and women in britain the paper examines the determinants of the individual decision to unionize for british employees and uses micro data from the 1975 national training survey the unionization probability is estimated separately for manual and non manual men and full time and part time women an interesting finding is that personal characteristics of both men and women generally do not affect the unionization probability this result run counter to the common perception that family responsibilities explain low female trade union density

a test of the habit formation hypothesis using household data numerous studies have confirmed the importance of habit formation as represented by a lagged dependent variable in demand analysis although all work to date has been based on aggregate time series data this study uses household level bls interview panel data to test the habit hypothesis an interrelated demand system for seventeen goods is estimated from cross section data and compared with a similar system based on time series data the results show that the habit component is significantly different between the two data sets and much smaller in the cross section data habit effects while not as large in cross section data as time series are still highly significant several explanations are offered concerning why the two sets of estimates differ copyright 1991 by mit press

carbon tax simulations using a household demand model abstract the main objective of this paper is to analyse consumer response and welfare effects due to changes in energy or environmental policy to achieve this objective we formulate and estimate an econometric model for non durable consumer demand in sweden that utilises micro and macro data in the simulations we consider two revenue neutral scenarios that both imply a doubling of the co2 tax one that returns the revenues in the form of a lower vat and one that subsidise public transport one conclusion from the simulations is that the co2 tax has regional distribution effects in the sense that household living in sparsely populated areas carry a larger share of the tax burden

public vs private demand for covering long term care expenditures this article studies the determinants of the willingness to pay wtp for long term care ltc insurance coverage two alternatives are considered one compulsory financed through taxes the other purchased on a voluntary basis and paid through a premium wtp was elicited through open ended contingent valuation within a survey conducted in the italian region emilia romagna about ltc population needs we model information on individual wtp as a two stage process where respondents first establish their interest for ltc cover then state their wtp results show that interest and wtp are influenced by different variables and that differences arise also between the wtp for public and private coverage

probability of purchase amount of purchase and the demographic incidence of the lottery tax abstract when consumers indifference curves are discontinuous at zero perhaps due to stigma or fixed costs of purchase then factors influencing the amount purchased will have a different effect on the probability of purchase estimation of the demand for a commodity like lottery tickets requires a procedure that accounts for this tobit estimation commonly used in this literature does not allow for this generalization we investigate individual lottery ticket purchases using data from a survey of households our results are quite disparate from earlier studies regarding the effects of many demographic variables on probability of play level of play and expected lottery ticket purchases and imply a different demographic incidence of the lottery tax than previous studies suggest

estimating a demand system with nonnegativity constraints mexican meat demand a new information based approach for estimating systems of many equations with nonnegativity constraints is presented this approach called generalized maximum entropy gme is more practical and

determinants of dietary quality evidence from bangladesh summary whereas a large number of studies have been devoted to analyzing consumer demand for dietary quantity much less attention has been paid to the demand for dietary quality to address this gap in the literature this paper explores the determinants of dietary quality in bangladesh using data from a nationally representative household expenditure survey conducted in 2000 we find that while male education plays a positive role female education has a substantially stronger influence further female household headship is associated with lower dietary quality than male headship thus promoting female education and addressing the unique constraints faced by female headed households with respect to diet quality could be a significant policy instrument for addressing food insecurity in bangladesh

the impact of tax reforms designed to encourage healthier grain consumption in this paper we simulate the effects of tax reforms aimed at encouraging healthier grain consumption we use a rich data set on household grain consumption in 2003 from the market research institute gfk sweden combined with information on the nutritional content of the consumption we estimate behavioral parameters which are used to simulate the impact on the average household of tax reforms entailing either a subsidy on commodities particularly rich in fiber or a subsidy of the fiber density in grain products our results suggest that to direct the fiber intake towards nutritional recommendations reforms with a substantial impact on consumer prices are required regardless of the type of subsidy implemented the increase in the intake of fiber is accompanied by unwanted increases in nutrients that are often overconsumed fat salt and sugar funding the subsidies by taxing these nutrients or less healthy commodities helps to counteract such developments

modelling milk purchasing behaviour with a panel data double hurdle model in this study the double hurdle model typically used in cross sectional data is extended to panel data structures the new double hurdle model can account not only for the censored nature of commodity purchases but also for the dynamics of the purchase process in this model a flexible error structure is assumed to account for state dependence and household specific heterogeneity in the empirical application for milk purchases it is found that generic advertising increases the probability of market participation as well as the purchase quantity and incidence temporal dependence is also found in both purchase and participation equations

at home consumption of cheese a purchase infrequency model for many commodities zero purchases are recorded in household budget surveys even though positive consumption occurs this may reflect a survey period that is shorter than the purchase cycle the present study estimates a purchase infrequency model for cheese using the 1987 bls consumer expenditure survey appropriateness of the tobit specification is examined along with the assumption of independence of the two stage expenditure decision process applied consumption analyses often use household budget surveys with little concern as to survey period length relative to the length over which consumption can occur many of these analyses use the tobit model to account for censoring associated with use of this type of model are underlying assumptions that first the same stochastic process affects both purchase decisions and consumption levels and second a zero value of the dependent variable represents a true comer solution however when the commodity in question has a purchase cycle longer than the survey period length a zero expenditure level may not correspond to zero consumption and the tobit specification may be inappropriate blundell and meghir p 197 as a commodity cheese may exhibit characteristics precluding use of a tobit demand model for many cheese varieties consumption may occur many weeks after purchase as evidence the 1972 and 1987 consumer expenditure surveys report that 48 and 42 of surveyed households respectively had purchased cheese over a one week survey period in contrast the 1977 usda household food consumption survey indicates over 75 of surveyed households had consumed cheese at home over a one week period this large difference

who emits most associations between socio economic factors and uk households home energy transport indirect and total co2 emissions abstract does the association between household characteristics and household co2 emissions differ for areas such as home energy transport and indirect emissions this question is policy relevant because distributional implications of mitigation policies may vary depending on the area of emissions that is targeted if specific types of households are likely to have higher emissions in some areas than in others so far this issue has not been examined in depth in the literature on household co2 emissions using a representative uk expenditure survey this paper compares how household characteristics like income household size education gender worklessness and rural or urban location differ in their association with all three areas as well as total emissions we find that these associations vary considerably across emission domains in particular whilst all types of emissions rise with income low income workless and elderly households are more likely to have high emissions from home energy than from other domains suggesting that they may be less affected by carbon taxes on transport or total emissions this demonstrates that fairness implications related to mitigation policies need to be examined for separate emission domains

an analysis of under reporting for micro data sets the misreporting or double hurdle model abstract this paper analyzes under reporting through the two extended tobit models p tobit and double hurdle models the empirical results clarify the characteristics of under reporting misreporting plays an important role in under reporting

spending on alcohol evidence from the family expenditure survey 1970 1983 this paper reports on the investigation of a model of the determination of the share of household expenditure on alcohol using fes data for the united kingdom 1970 83 i e a time series of cross sections the authors pay special attention to the occurrence of zero expenditure variations in characteristics across the population and the modeling and interpretation of the stochastic term this term is modeled using the gamma distribution replacing the normal in tobit estimated parameters indicate strong positive skewness interactions between household characteristics and expenditure propensities are important copyright 1990 by royal economic society

latent consideration sets and continuous demand systems this paper develops a theoretically consistent continuous demand system model that incorporates latent probabilistic consideration sets in contrast to existing discrete choice consideration models the proposed model is econometrically tractable with consumption data for many goods the model s empirical properties are illustrated with an 89 site recreation data set from the 1994 national survey of recreation and the environment nsre parameter and welfare estimates suggest that the latent consideration set models fit the data better and may imply a bias variance tradeoff relative to traditional models

a box cox double hurdle model of wildlife valuation the citizen s perspective abstract a stated preference approach is used to elicit the attitudes of the general public towards coyote conservation the payment vehicle is presented in a way that explicitly prompts respondents to adopt a citizen perspective rather than a consumer perspective when responding to the survey to deal with the large numbers of zero responses a box cox double hurdle specification is used to model separately individuals choices about whether to support conservation or not and their choice about the level of support the results show that simpler analyses that do not account explicitly for these two different decisions would lead to misleading conclusions in the study of nuisance wildlife the study uses primary data from prince edward island canada

functional form of engel curves for foodstuffs abstract employing individual household expenditure data for six foodstuffs we test five three parameter and four two parameter engel curves against a more general form all two parameter functions must be rejected including working s function it appears that a transformation of the budget share is in order to capture the observed curvature

spending on children direct survey evidence we present estimates of spending on children from a danish expenditure survey which asks respondents directly about allocations of expenditures to individual household members our main finding is that the average danish family allocates 44 of total assignable spending on non food non durables and services to children there is considerable variation across households more is spent on older children and expenditure on children is an increasing concave function of the number of equivalent children we find that households in which the mother has had a child by a previous partner spend 24 less on children than otherwise similar households

the welfare effects of health based food tax policy this paper examines the effects of health oriented food tax reforms on the distribution of tax payments food demand and health outcomes we offer an illustration of how one can take into account the uncertainty related to both demand estimation and health estimates and to produce confidence intervals for the overall health effects instead of only point estimates taxation of sugar could lead to a statistically significant reduction in both the incidence of type 2 diabetes and coronary heart disease the health effects appear to be most pronounced for low income individuals and the reforms may therefore reduce health inequality this effect undermines the traditional regressivity argument against the heavy taxation of unhealthy food

risk and forest policy issues and recent trends in the u s abstract recent forest policy trends in the united states have implications for the nature timing and incidence of risk to which the public is exposed policy makers face enormous uncertainty both about what forests can do and be and about what people want forest policy that places a premium on shortrun predictability in the flow of commodity outputs is being replaced with policy that allows disturbances such as fire that are consistent with long run naturalness scientists advocate adaptive management the introduction of planned variation in order to enhance learning within the bounds of safety a concept that can only be understood in the context of public feelings and perceptions of risk this paper reviews economic models of choice under uncertainty and discusses issues that are relevant for understanding risk perceptions and preferences the definition of probabilities and the many attributes of risk and it examines the margins on which trade offs in risk are made in new forest policy arguing that because new forest policy shifts from public to private risk and from future to current risk it may enhance the common good finally this paper calls for policy to address uncertainty explicitly in a way that acknowledges public feelings and preferences about risk recognizes risk perceptions of experts and of lay persons and encourages developments in forest policy that allow for flexibility in the face of new knowledge

statistical models for zero expenditures in household budgets household budget surveys are an important source of data on consumer s expenditure not just for individual consumers but also for estimating national aggregates however it is a widespread finding that for certain commodities most notably tobacco and alcohol the estimate from the household survey falls short of the known consumption total calculated with some confidence from data on production imports exports and excise duties for example in the british family expenditure survey with which we shall largely be concerned total tobacco expenditure was underestimated in 1976 by 21 percent see kemsley redpath and holmes 1980 p 51 much of this understatement together with that on alcohol is thought to occur because of the design of the survey which excludes many persons amongst whom consumption of such items is thought to be atypically high e g prisoners hoteliers and their residents merchant seamen even so the possibility remains that some of the understatement is due to various types of misreporting by households included in the survey in this paper we consider a model in which the standard tobit specification tobin 1958 is supplemented by the operation of a simple binary censor the tobit model is essentially a linear regression model in which non positive observations of the dependent variable are replaced by zero we take this specification as our starting point but add a second censoring process that randomly replaces a fraction of the observations generated by the tobit model bv zeroes the combined model can serve as a representation of several types of

distinguishing between market participation and infrequency of purchase models of butter demand household butter expenditures are modeled by market participation and infrequency of purchase specifications the market participation model assumes that zero expenditures represent either traditional corner solutions or consumers who never use the product whereas the infrequency of purchase model assumes that zero expenditures represent either corner solutions or consumption out of storage we determine that the infrequency of purchase specification is preferred to the market participation model by applying a nonnested test based upon likelihood functions if household expenditure surveys contained information about participation and frequency of purchase a likelihood function which contained both models could be written and estimated

investment choice and asset allocation of italian households the discrete continuous approach financial and monetary policies are considered to be effective depending on the reaction of financial markets which are increasingly populated by households in this article from intertemporal settings i derive a financial almost ideal fai demand system and i estimate it by highlighting the determinants of both limited participation to financial markets and asset substitutability complementarity in the allocating stage finally the wealth elasticities provide some further insights on the low diffusion of the newer and more complex financial instruments across italian households

what s mine is yours the influence of male and female incomes on patterns of household expenditure this paper uses microdata from the 1992 statistics canada family expenditure survey to provide evidence that male and female incomes do not always exert identical influences on household expenditures the novelty of the paper lies in its demonstration that while incomes may be pooled for some categories of consumption e g housing the income pooling hypothesis must be rejected for others we also go beyond simply rejecting the pooling hypothesis to ask how male versus female income is used our results stress the on going importance of traditional gender roles for example we find that expenditures on child care increase only with women s incomes higher male income is not associated with higher expenditure on child care even when both spouses are full time full year paid workers

joint purchasing decisions a multivariate negative binomial approach the analysis of household purchasing decisions for understanding consumption behaviour has received much attention recently mainly because of the measurement error problems that appear when using expenditure data to approximate consumption this paper discusses some empirical regularities of the household purchasing behaviour based on information about the number of purchases a household has declared having done during the survey period the concern of this paper is two fold first to show how to recover purchase frequency data from the spanish budget survey 1990 1991 second to discuss some empirical regularities of the joint purchasing decisions based on multivariate negative binomial models

information and consumer perception of the organic attribute in fresh fruits and vegetables using a double hurdle model on panel data from 3 200 danish households monthly observations for 2002 2007 we study the effects of health related media information on the demand for organic fruit and vegetables we find that negative information about pesticides contained in conventional fruit and vegetables mainly influences the probability of a consumer entering the organic market not the quantities consumed by households that are already active on the organic market positive information that links health and the consumption of organic food influences both steps of the decision process our dataset includes information about consumers media habits which allows us to disentangle the direct effects of media information from the indirect effects of this information as it is disseminated through the population our results suggest that directly obtained information is the main type of information influencing consumers while information loadings by dissemination through the population have almost no effect on consumption

u s cigarette consumption the case of low income women we use double hurdle or cragg models to test whether decisions about smoking participation and consumption levels are separate endogenous choices we also estimate several dominance models which assume that standard corner solutions are not applicable a complete dominance model with independence between the participation and consumption decisions is the preferred specification for our data the most important variables influencing participation are region number of children education and ethnicity region age race ethnicity and health status most affected consumption levels