technology factor proportions and competitiveness the paper reports an attempt to explain changes in the industrial pattern of relative international competitiveness and specialization in the swedish manufacturing industry during the period 1969 84 in particular we evaluate the role of rd this was true for industries intensive in human as well as physical capital the analysis confirmed the technology gap hypothesis in that a high level of rd on the other hand no indication was found of increased international specialization on r d intensive products in swedish industry

factor endowments factor proportions and the allocative efficiency of u s interregional trade the heckscher ohlin h o theory of trade has been subjected to numerous international tests based upon the empirical evidence presented in the literature it appears that the theory s explanatory power of the actual pattern of international trade is somewhat limited this may not be surprising however when one considers a host of extraneous factors such as tariffs quotas and other policy and institutional barriers to trade which distort the pattern of trade on the other hand some of the requisites of the h o theory are more nearly satisfied in interregional trade within a nation the extent of policy distortions on the overall pattern of commodity trade should be far less in interregional trade than in international trade likewise both production technologies and demand conditions assumed to be identical between nations in the h o theory should be more nearly so among regions within a nation while the theoretical basis of regional trade is of course the same as that of international trade it is primarily for these reasons that a number of researchers have more recently turned to interregional trade for the purpose of testing the h o theory the current literature on the u s regional comparative advantage includes the contributions by moroney and walker 1966 moroney 1972 1975 estle 1967 and klaasen 1973 whereas these studies focused primarily on the pattern of regional production as revealed by value added concentration ratios for the u s south the major objectives of this paper are i to design and perform factor proportion tests based upon the actual interregional pattern of trade and ii to investigate one neglected empirical aspect of the h o theory bearing upon the substitutive role that commodity trade plays for direct factor mobility in section ii we present estimates of the regional distribution of major input supplies in the united states the input classes considered are capital equipment human capital labor and renewable and nonrenewable natural resources in particular we have found that there are fairly distinct differences among u s census regions pertaining to relative aggregate input supplies defined by physical capital labor ratio human capital labor ratio renewable natural resource labor ratio and nonrenewable resource labor ratio section iii presents the methodology and major empirical findings of the factor proportions test as adapted to interregional trade section iv extends the analysis to consider an alternative hypothesis of the h o theory based on the substitutive relationship between direct factor movements and commodity trade as embedded in the original h o theory this aspect of the theory has not been explicitly dealt with in the empirical literature and we consider its practical implication concerning the allocative efficiency of trade a summary section concludes the paper

a dual definition for the factor content of trade and its effect on factor rewards in us manufacturing sector we introduce a dual definition of the factor content of trade fct using the concept of the equivalent autarky equilibrium estimating a symmetric normalized quadratic revenue function for the u s manufacturing sector between 1965 and 1991 we find that the fct for capital is positive while the fct for skilled and unskilled labor is negative suggesting that the leontief paradox is not present then the growth rate of the factor rewards is decomposed to the fct endowments and technological change effects we find that technological change is the most important determinant in explaining wage inequality between skilled and unskilled labor

domestic trade and transportation costs as barriers to international trade available evidence indicates that costs of nontraded services in domestic transportation wholesaling and retailing domestic margins are higher if a good is shipped in international trade than if it is shipped from domestic producers to domestic consumers consequently domestic margins appear to act as natural barriers to trade in the same manner as international transp ort costs do this paper presents estimates of the barriers that the domestic margins impose against u s imports and shows that they exc eed the barriers imposed by tariffs and international transport costs combined

the constitution of economic policy one of the most exciting intellectual moments of my career was my 1984 discovery of knut wicksell s unknown and untranslated dissertation finanztheoretische untersuchungen buried in the dusty stacks of chicago s old harper library only the immediate post dissertation leisure of an academic novice allowed for the browsing that produced my own dramatic example of learning by serendipity wicksell s new principle of justice in taxation gave me a tremendous surge of self confidence wicksell who was an established figure in the history of economic ideas challenged the orthodoxy of public finance theory along lines that were congenial with my own developing stream of critical consciousness from that moment in chicago i took on the determination to make wicksell s contribution known to a wider audience and i commenced immediately a translation effort that took some time and considerable help from elizabeth henderson before final publication this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

seasonality and habit persistence in a life cycle model of consumption summary the allocation of non durable consumers expenditure over the four quarters of the year reflects choices made by consumers implying a utility function exhibiting seasonality incorporating such a function the life cycle model fails to explain fully the observed dynamics in uk seasonally unadjusted data seasonal habit persistence effects are introduced and found to be significant although this generalized model stands up well to testing in a univariate context it fails to exclude a predictive role for lagged income changes seasonality is inherent in many economic time series but it is rarely considered to be an issue of interest in econometric model building rather than explicitly investigating the economics underlying seasonal variation modellers typically try to remove its effects either by using seasonally adjusted data or by including seasonal intercept dummies in their equations the former practice is criticized by wallis 1974 who shows that it may distort the relationship between variab le the latter assumes that the function simply shifts up or down with the season however except for degrees of freedom considerations there seems to be no a priori reason why the same parameters or functional form should apply at different times of the year indeed gersovitz and mackinnon 1978 argue that realistic utility cost or production functions result in models in which seasonal influences cannot be separated out in a simple fashion in the present study seasonality is treated as one of the features to be explained within the economic model thus in the particular application to non durable consumers expenditure it is argued that the allocation of expenditure over the year reflects seasonal tastes and hence seasonality in the underlying utility function the implications of this are explicitly investigated the framework for our analysis is the influential paper by hall 1978 who derives a randomwalk model for real non durable consumers expenditure when rational expectations are combined with a life cycle theory of consumption hall does not investigate seasonality at all and employs seasonally adjusted values in his empirical analysis although subsequent us authors have examined many aspects of this theory the type of data used has rarely been

the direction of developing country trade empirical evidence of differences between south south and south north trade abstract declining market opportunities in northern markets led to views that greater south south trading might provide an alternative growth stimulus this paper analyses the characteristics of south south trade in manufactures and recent changes in the level of such trade to help clarify the potential of greater self reliance within the south south south trade is found to be more intensive in the use of both physical and human capital hence less rational from the static comparative advantage viewpoint than south north trade there is indirect but strong evidence that exporting countries with greatest orientation towards the south are those with greater distortions less rapid movements up the ladder of comparative advantage and weaker export performance finally it is observed that the recent boom in south south trade is largely explained by simple market size effects very rapid growth of rich oil exporters and the faster gnp growth of developing compared to developed countries the paper concludes that while south south trade of about the present magnitude one of greater developing country exports is certainly rational there is little evidence to support views that greater south south trade should be especially promoted arguments of dynamic comparative advantage may favor south south trade but so far these have been more speculative and not yet well researched empirically

determinants of the structure of u s foreign trade 1958 1976 abstract the heckscher ohlin model with three direct factor inputs is borne out for u s net exports of manufactures in annual cross section regressions for 1958 1976 the coefficient on unskilled labor became significantly more negative over the period and there is evidence that the negative sign on physical capital may reflect the inclusion of natural resource industries further analysis based upon 1960 and 1970 census years suggests the importance as well of skill and technological variables calculations of the total factor requirements of u s trade uphold the leontief paradox for 1958 but not for 1972

disequilibrium buffer stocks and consumers expenditure on non durables the authors examine the importance of a disequilibrium real balance effect on non durable consumers expenditure in the u k using cointegration techniques and the johansen procedure they first establish a desired long run demand function for liquid assets depending on income wealth and a set of interest rates deviations of liquidity from this desired level cause changes in consumption via intertemporal substitution but via its effect on disequilibrium liquidity consumption is modeled in an error correction framework and is also found to depend on income and financial wealth both the disequilibrium liquidity and wealth terms may be picking up the effects of financial liberalization e g mortgage leak on consumption as funds released will be temporarily held in financial assets they also find some evidence that changes in the distribution of income have an independent effect on aggregate consumption copyright 1991 by mit press

comparative advantage geographic advantage and the volume of trade a functional relationship between the degree of a country s comparative advantage and the volume of its net exports of any good to its trading partner is established using a model with per unit distance transportation costs between countries coasts and their interiors the greater a country s comparative advantage the deeper its exports penetrate geographically into its trading partner the internal spatial structure of a country consists of cities on a river it is shown that population sizes wage rates and residential rental rates are greatest in the port city and decline monotonically as one moves inland copyright 1991 by royal economic society

intertemporal consumer behaviour in developing countries this paper explores aggregate consumption behaviour in four developing countries under the assumption that consumers planning horizons do not extend over their expected lifetime under certain conditions the resulting moving planning horizon model suggests that changes in current income would exert considerably more influence over current consumer spending than is predicted by forward looking theories of consumption which typically assume that consumers planning horizons coincide with expected lifetime estimation of the model for the group of developing countries provides empirical support for the role of changes in current income in influencing the consumption process the results also reveal that consumers are relatively short sighted sinced the length of the planning period of consumers ranges from just over ten months an important implication of these findings is that policy measures can be effective not only if they influence consumers permanent incomes but also if they affect changes in curr

immiserizing investment from abroad the singer prebisch thesis reconsidered the present paper lends new analytical support to the controversial singer prebisch thesis according to this well known thesis less developed countries ldcs suffer a welfare loss from secular decline in their international terms of trade for primary product exports the standard theoretical criticism of the thesis makes two basic arguments both relating to the impact of economic expansion 2 first there is no well established presumption that the terms of trade for primary products will indeed deteriorate in a growing world economy second if domestic economic expansion does happen to worsen the terms of trade for ldcs economic welfare of these countries still need not deteriorate except under bhagwati s 1958 well known conditions for immiserizing growth thus the traditional critique sees the singer prebisch thesis as an unconvincing allegation about the relationship between growth and welfare via the terms of trade the following discussion suggests an alternative more favorable interpretation of the thesis this reinterpretation focuses upon the process of foreign investment4 rather than economic growth as the essential reason for adverse changes in the terms of trade and level of welfare for ldcs exporting primary products such a focus appears to be fully consistent with the analysis of singer 19501 5 whose main

entrepreneurship social mobility and income redistribution in south india development economists have been preoccupied with the problem of increasing the size of the gnp pie to the relative neglect of its distribution despite the recent disenchantment with the viewpoint that all classes share in the benefits of industrial growth empirical data on the distribution of income business opportunity and economic power are in short supply many of the studies on entrepreneurship and economic development when they are not apologetics for ruthless capitalist exploitation as paul baran suggests extol the achievements of the capitalist entrepreneur without examining class origins and monopoly advantage joseph schumpeter sees entrepreneurs irrespective of class origin as heroic figures with the dream and will to found a private kingdom to conquer adversity to achieve success for its own sake and to experience the joy of creation for gustav papanek 1967 the private entrepreneur who is frugal diligent far sighted remarkably able and willing to take political risks is in large part responsible for the success of pakistan in achieving rapid industrialization

industrialisation and the factor content of latin american exports of manufactures this article shows that latin american exports of manufactures that grow consistently over time arise from both traditional as well as policy induced sources of comparative advantage case studies for argentina colombia and venezuela show that manufactures originally developed for the domestic market were exported with consistent growth rates and came to represent an important proportion of total manufacturing exports the study also shows that inter country differences in the factor content of these exports reflect both differences in original resource endowments as well as the effects of industrialisation policy

preference conformism an experiment this paper reports on an experiment designed to test whether people s preferences change to become more alike such preference conformism would be worrying for an economics that takes individual preferences as given de gustibus es non disputandum so the test is important but it is also difficult people can behave alike for many reasons and the key to the design of our test therefore is the control of the other possible reasons for observing apparent peer effects we find evidence of preference conformism in the aggregate and at the individual level where there is heterogeneity it appears also to be more consistent with festinger s epistemic account of why it might occur than that of social identity theory

a note on international trade and market structure as exports become an increasing part of industry sales the determinants of a firm s international position become increasingly important tests have supported single factors such as product life cycle lutz and green 1983 as well as multi factor models to explain the determinants of industry imports and exports stern and maskus 1981 harkness and kyle 1975 baldwin 1971 this study also presents a multi factor analysis of the determinants of u s trade patterns this study utilized the spi strategic planning institute data set which allows research at the business unit product line level results indicate that productivity and product development are the principal characteristics of high export percentage business units these findings are especially true for nonconsumer industries thus to the degree that business are concerned over the short term costs of product development direct or indirect for example insurance government aid may be required to promote u s export industries

consumer behaviour theory and empirical evidence a survey this survey is designed to emphasize the relationship between empirical a nd theoretical considerations in the analysis of consumer behavior a lthough it focuses primarily on analysis at the individual or micro l evel it tries where possible to draw implications for the estimati on of aggregate relationships the importance of micro level analysis stems from the rapid expansion in available panel and survey data se ts this development has generated its own theoretical and empirical issues many of which are raised in this survey copyright 1988 by royal economic society

the opportunity criterion consumer sovereignty without the assumption of coherent preferences this paper proposes a formulation of consumer sovereignty for use in normative economics which does not presuppose individuals preferences to be coherent the fundamental intuition that opportunity and responsibility have moral value is formalised as a responsibility criterion for assessing opportunities in an economic system a model of an exchange economy is presented in which rational arbitrageurs compete to make profits by trading with non rational consumers in equilibrium this economy satisfies the responsibility criterion one interpretation of this result is that in a competitive environment the overall effects of money pumps are benign even if individuals preferences are persistently incoherent

self efficacy beliefs and imitation a two armed bandit experiment abstract it is generally believed that individuals imitate others to gain status minimise regret or simply ameliorate their performance psychology provides a complementary explanation imitation becomes appealing when agents have little faith in their abilities we investigate the extent to which self efficacy beliefs affect agents propensities to imitate others we propose an experimental task which is a modified version of the two armed bandit we measure participants self assessed self efficacy then study individual learning subsequently we measure how individuals use the information they gather observing a randomly selected group leader we find that in stable environments a 1 increase in individual self efficacy reduces the propensity to imitate others by 3

consumption and income some simple excercises with panel data this paper reports on the performance of simple versions of the rational expectations permanent income hypothesis of hall 1978 and the error correction approach of davidson et al 1978 in explaining nondurable consumption expenditure from austrian panel data paying particular attention to the characterization of nondurability we examine the parameter restrictions implied by the respective models and then select favoured dynamic consumption income relationship our findings suggest that the models receive limited support only for the narrowest category of nondurables food consumed at home particularly for broader categories the strength of model rejections and the complex dynamic paths observed imply that the models provide an inadequate description of consumption at the micro level

effects of transitory consumption and temporal aggregation on the permanent income hypothesis this paper shows that u s monthly consumption data are consistent with the permanent income hypothesis when transitory consumption and temporal aggregation effects are jointly incorporated into the model in this case a more appropriate representation for the permanent income hypothesis is the integrated moving average ima 1 1 process with a negative ma coefficient rather than the repeatedly rejected random walk process restrictions on the relative importance of transitory and permanent consumption are also discussed with and without measurement errors copyright 1993 by mit press

temporal aggregation and hall s model of consumption behaviour a simple exercise of time series analysis shows that the presence of the phonomenon of temporal aggregation in quarterly consumption data can substantially alter the empirical inference about hall mocel of consumption behaviour this fact has received almost no attention in the econometric research in this field

export performance in china s regional economies china enjoyed unprecedented economic growth in the 1980s and 1990s associated with this growth was the rapid expansion of exports from the chinese regions this study aims to provide an empirical assessment of export performance in the chinese regions during 1992 2001 it has shown that on an average china s regional economies have only achieved 70 of their export potential leaving substantial scope for improvement there is also considerable variation in export performance among the chinese regions with the noncoastal areas lagging behind in addition this article also shows that several region specific factors e g foreign direct investment government spending infrastructure development and the nonstate sector have affected regional export performance positively furthermore it is found that the development of china s western regions has boosted and will continue to improve the export sectors in these regions

measurement of the factor content of foreign trade with traded intermediate goods abstract in a recent article helpman 1984 develops readily testable bilateral restrictions in a model of international trade which preserves the spirit of heckscher ohlin trade theory important in any empirical exploration of the heckscher ohlin model is the decision of whether to employ direct or direct plus indirect calculations in determining the factor content of trade this paper extends helpman s analysis to a world of freely traded intermediate goods and shows that direct factor content calculations are the theoretically appropriate measure for use in evaluating these empirical implications of the heckscher ohlin model

new products and the factor content of international trade this paper extends the multicommodity two input version of the heckscher ohlin model to include new products on which considerable interest has been focused by the product cycle hypothesis and related analyses the extended model is then used to reexamine the implications of relative factor abundance for the capital and labor content of international commodity trade as this analysis shows the presence of new products might in principle resolve the leontief paradox under certain specific conditions

the leontief paradox continued according to leamer 1980 the leontief paradox is based on a simple conceptual misunderstanding in a multifactor version of the heckscher ohlin model he argues that a capital abundant country need not have its exports more capital intensive than its importsprovided that the country s commodity trade embodies a net export of both labor and capital services as was the case for the united states in leontief s 1954 data for such a country however the model does imply that capital per worker be greater in net exports than in consumption leamer finds that this implication is indeed consistent with leontief s data this note shows however that there is another feature of the trade data which is not so easily explained the fact that the united states exported labor services is in itself paradoxical as discussed below sec ii the model which leamer uses to explain the paradox implies that a country is a net exporter of labor services if and only if its aggregate expenditure per worker is less than that in the rest of the world this implication is clearly inconsistent with the evidence reviewed below in sec iii which shows that expenditure per worker was substantially greater in the united states than the rest of the world and yet the united states exported labor services therefore a modified version of the leontief paradox continues to stand

comparative advantage in manufactured goods a re appraisal japanese input coefficients are used to investigate the pattern of comparative advantage in the exportation of manufactured products in a cross country framework estimates are made for the imports of manufactured products as well as for net exports also alternative techniques of estimation are utilized and an attempt to explain the residuals in the regression equations and to indicate the predictive power of these equations is made the paper shows that patterns of comparative advantage in manufactured goods can be explained by reference to commodity characteristics and country characteristics in turn intercountry differences in the extent of trade orientation the concentration of exports and foreign direct investment explain part of the residuals of the cross country regression equations finally it has been found that the method applied permits projecting the factor intensity of trade for individual countries

an empirical investigation of the heckscher ohlin theorem further empirical tests are required to substantiate or disprove the heckscher ohlin theorem because earlier tests were based on an incorrect test statistic a multi commodity two country two factor model is constructed to test the theorem and derive an appropriate test statistic the model provides testable hypotheses for trade based on its profit and wage content rather than on its capital and labour content the results show that the 1968 trade patterns for australia ireland japan korea new zealand and the united states support the heckscherohlin theorem while those of israel kenya and the united kingdom do not une etude empirique du theoreme heckscher ohlin il faut des tests empiriques additionnels pour decider si l on doit supporter ou renvoyer le theoreme de heckscher ohlin puisque les tests anterieurs ont ete eriges sur une statistique incorrecte les auteurs developpent un modele de commerce international pour deux pays deux facteurs de production et plusieurs biens afin de pouvoir confectionner un test approprie du theoreme le modele suggere des hypotheses veifiables construites a partir des variables profits et salaires plutot qu a partir de variables comme les coefficients d intensite en capital et en travail les resultats indiquent que les patterns de commerce en 1968 pour l australie l irlande le japon la nouvelle zelande et les etats unis tendent a supporter le theoreme heckscher ohlin alors que 1 experience du kenya et du royaume uni va dans l autre sens starting with leontief s seminal paper 1953 examinations of the factoral content of international trade have cast doubt on the reliability of the heckscher ohlin theorem in these studies patterns of trade between the rest of the world and the united states japan west germany and canada contradicted the theorem while those of east germany and india supported it bharadwaj 1962 leontief 1953 1956 roskamp 1961 stolper and roskamp 1961 tatemoto and ichimura 1959 and wahl 1961 as baldwin 1971 126 stated these results effectively destroyed the comfortable confidence of economists in the simple version of the heckscher ohlin trade theory they also provoked numerous articles advancing other ways to account for the pattern of a country s trade the test statistic used for these empirical studies of the heckscher ohlin theorem was developed by leontief and further applied by later investigators although it was never set within a theoretical framework no one questioned it until williams canadian journal of economics revue canadienne d economique xvii no 1 february fevrier 1984 printed in canada imprime au canada 0008 4085 84 0000 0032 1 50 1984 canadian economics association this content downloaded from 157 55 39 104 on mon 20 jun 2016 05 49 18 utc all use subject to http about jstor org terms empirical investigation of heckscher ohlin theorem 33 published his paper in 1970 in that work williams asserted that leontief s inference is incorrect the united states is plentiful in capital and he provided a model from which he derived a correct test statistic williams 1970 from a practical point of view a major limitation of williams s model is the assumption that trade is perfectly free and that factor prices will be equalized through trade more recent papers by deardorff 1979 and brecher and choudhri 1982 have suggested in a two country context at least that the factor content condition developed by williams should hold when factor prices are unequal and there are tariffs or other impediments to trade marxsen 1983 has demonstrated that such is the case and therefore that the williams condition should hold even if factor prices are unequal and trade is tariff ridden the purpose of this paper is to provide an empirical test of the heckscher ohlin theorem in the first section a multi commodity two country two factor model is constructed and an approprite test statistic is devised based on the profit and wage content rather than the capital and labour content of trade the second section presents the empirical test results for the 1968 trade patterns of the nine countries under study in the third section these results are considered in the light of previous work and conclusions are drawn about the heckscher ohlin theorem

information cascades in the laboratory when a series of individuals with private information announce public predictions initial conformity can create an information cascade in which later predictions match the early announcements this paper reports an experiment in which private signals are draws from an unobserved urn subjects make predictions in sequence and are paid if they correctly guess which of two urns was used for the draws if initial decisions coincide then it is rational for subsequent decisionmakers to follow the established pattern regardless of their private information rational cascades formed in most periods in which such an imbalance occurred copyright 1997 by american economic association

stochastic life cycle theory with varying interest rates and prices incorporating the assumption of rational expectations has produced some striking new predictions from many familiar economic theories one of the benefits of this development is that these new predictions provide additional means of testing well documented theories without necessarily requiring new data though it must be admitted that this is at the cost of an additional and for many a controversial assumption in his paper on life cycle and permanent income theory hall 1978 has given a very good example of such new predictions he demonstrated that if consumers are assumed to measure wealth using rational expectations of future income rather than a distributed lag of past income then a logical consequence of standard life cycle theory is that consumption will closely follow a first order autoregression subsequently bilson 1980 and flavin 1981 showed that the disturbance term in this autoregression will depend on the errors in predicting current and future income at first sight this remarkable result may seem to be inconsistent with the standard consumption function which relates consumption to income but an example will help explain why there is no necessary conflict consider the simple consumption function or absolute income hypothesis

the interpretation of cross section regression tests of the heckscher ohlin theorem with many goods and factors abstract numerous authors have used cross section regression methods to explain interindustry variations in net exports by means of factor use ratios as one of the tests of the heckscher ohlin theorem this paper shows via an algebraic proof that the regression procedures used by these authors may be inappropriate tests of the heckscher ohlin theorem specifically the paper shows that in a framework of many goods and factors inferences about the relative abundance of a particular factor cannot be made by looking at the signs of the regression coefficients unless very stringent requirements are met

spatial concentration location and competitiveness the case of switzerland maggi r and haeni p k 1986 spatial concentration location and competitiveness the case of switzerland ireg studies 20 141 149 this paper considers the relation between location and competitiveness of thirty nine swiss export industries using a factor endowment approach we found that spatial concentration in intermediate areas is important for performance and conclude that spatial proximity offers a significant comparative advantage for swiss industries further findings in the case of switzerland are that scale economies are unimportant and that high technical skill constitutes a comparative advantage while manual skill does not the chosen approach proves to be useful but additional information might be found by analysing companies rather than industries

economics and identity this paper considers how identity a person s sense of self affects economic outcomes we incorporate the psychology and sociology of identity into an economic model of behavior in the utility function we propose identity is associated with different social categories and how people in these categories should behave we then construct a simple game theoretic model showing how identity can affect individual interactions the paper adapts these models to gender discrimination in the workplace the economics of poverty and social exclusion and the household division of labor in each case the inclusion of identity substantively changes conclusions of previous economic analysis

the kennedy round evidence on the regulation of international trade in the united states the purpose of this paper is to analyze and provide empirical evidence regarding the regulation of international trade flows our goal is to provide an explanation of the changes in the interindustry pattern of trade restrictions which emerged from the kennedy round of tariff negotiations the principal conclusion of the analysis is that the pattern of protection which resulted from the kennedy round was shaped to minimize the domestic political disruption resulting from liberalization industries which faced significant import threats and whose characteristics enhanced their potential political influence were able to maintain tariff protection in the face of overall liberalization the potential impact of the agreed upon tariff reductions was partially undermined by the introduction of offsetting nontariff trade barriers ntbs in addition ntbs were introduced systematically in industries that were becom

exports and economic growth in industrialized countries the prima facie causal relationships between growth exports and factor inputs capital and labour are investigated in five industrialized countries germany itlay japan united kingdom and united states over the period 1960 87 by analysing a four variable vector autoregressive var model for each country our results indicate that germany and japan experienced export led growth reverse causality between exports and growth is found in the case of the us and uk while to causal relationship between exports and output is found for itlay

surprises in the consumption function the life cycle hypothesis has been the dominant theoretical basis for empirical work on the aggregate consumption function for about a quarter of a century under it real consumption is proportional to real life cycle wealth where the factor of proportionality depends on real interest rate expectations and the demographic structure of the population life cycle wealth is the sum of financial and human wealth however because the latter is the present real value of the stream of labour and transfer income expected over the life cycle it is not directly observable this fact has led to a great variety of proxying devices in empirical applications and in consequence much looseness in the interpretation of very different models as being all consistent with life cycle theory indeed one can argue that this has protected the hypothesis from being seriously tested and perhaps rejected an insight associated with friedman 1957 is that the view taken by consumers of life cycle income does not alter by much from period to period since there is greater persistence in life cycle income than in current income this also explains the greater persistence of consumption than of current income intuitively this would suggest that lagged consumption being related to last period s perception of life cycle income which in turn is not much different from this period s perception should have a major role in predicting current consumption this intuition was formalised by hall 1978 using ideas familiar from the study of stock market prices and the term structure of interest rates hall showed that if the real rate of interest is constant and given a number of other assumptions including no transitory element in consumption then the life cycle hypothesis implies that

resource supplies and changing world agricultural comparative advantage abstract this paper advances consideration of the heckscher ohlin h o theory of comparative advantage to agriculture in a dynamic setting the dynamic relationship among trade flows resource supplies and factor contents is studied the view that special circumstances in the agricultural sector render the h o theory inapplicable as a guide to agricultural trade is challenged consistent with the h o theory the results suggest that changing world patterns of resource abundance are an important explanation of the evolving structure of world trade in agriculture commodities

market structure and u s trade flows abstract using samples of input output table detailed industries we test the impact of various elements of market structure on u s trade flows at the industry level holding factor proportions constant industry demand characteristics and the extent of scale economies have significant impacts on trade flows labor intensity at the industry level has the effects on trade flows which are predicted by the factor proportions theory capital intensity increases both import and export flows this result together with certain others suggests the importance of trade among industrialized countries in producer goods

a test of the heckscher ohlin vanek theorem the leontief commonplace abstract this paper provides a logically complete empirical test of the hov theorem for the united states by comparing measures of factor intensities trade and factor endowments under the appropriate computations of the factor contents of trade and production u s data are shown to diverge often from their values as predicted by hov as a result it appears that paradoxical outcomes may be common in empirical applications of the theorem

misery loves company social regret and social interaction effects in choices under risk and uncertainty abstract extensive field evidence shows individuals decisions in settings involving uncertainty depend on their peers decisions one hypothesized cause of peer group effects is social interaction effects an individual s utility from an action is enhanced by others taking the same action we employ a series of controlled laboratory experiments to study the causes of peer effects in choice under uncertainty we find strong peer group effects in the laboratory our design allows us to rule out social learning social norms group affiliation and complementarities as possible causes for the observed peer group effects leaving social interaction effects as the likely cause we use a combination of theory and empirical analysis to show that preferences including social regret are more consistent with the data than preferences including a taste for conformity we observe spillover effects as observing another s choice of one risky gamble makes all risky gambles more likely to be chosen

inflation and the euler equation approach to consumption behaviour some empirical evidence abstract by using u s quarterly data on non durable consumption over the period 1951 i 1986 ii this note presents various pieces of evidence for the view that inflation variables in the anticipated surprise and uncertainty forms matter in the euler type consumption autoregression inflation variables are not only significantly negative and make the overall performance of the euler type specifications better but they also induce the wrong sign for the real rate of interest these results are puzzling and suggest that the question of why in contrast with a fisherian intertemporal optimization inflation matters in the consumption autoregression should be an important area for research

r d rivalry industrial policy and u s japanese trade the authors examine how the strategic aspect of japanese research and development expenditures and industrial policies affected u s japanese bilateral trade during the late 1970s and investigate which component of r d expenditures on process innovation product quality improvements new products and new technology or technology transfer proved to be most effective they find that while japanese r d expenditures have generally promoted japan s trade advantage certain components of r d have proved more effective than other the depreciation subsidy and special status with the ministry of international trade and industry is positively related to the japanese trade performance while legal cartelization status has not had any apparent effect copyright 1988 by mit press

free trade fair trade strategic trade and protectionism in the u s congress 1987 88 what conditions led the one hundredth congress of the united states to enact fair trade and strategic trade policies into law during 1987 88 political partisanship is an important force with democrats supporting and republicans opposing all types of trade intervention otherwise the coalitions of support for and opposition to the various trade policies differ particularly in the senate in that body international business is associated with support for fair trade policies and with opposition to classical protectionism while domestic u s business is associated with support for classical protectionism liberalism is strongly associated with support for fair and strategic trade policies but is not associated with classical protectionism in the house of representatives the long standing protectionist coalition remains an influence few forces in support of free trade remain in u s politics changing international market conditions rapidly affect the making of u s trade policy

offshore sourcing reaction maturation and consolidation of u s multinationals the authors conducted a quasi longitudinal investigation of u s multinationals r d manufacturing offshore sourcing strategies and resultant global market performance implications utilizing comprehensive data collected by the 1977 1982 and 1989 benchmark surveys of u s direct investment abroad hypotheses were tested in a path analytic framework despite increased competition at home and abroad causing their global market share positions to weaken in recent years u s multinationals have maintained and even may have improved their global consolidated profitability levels by skillfully exploiting their technological prowess through technology transfer and off shore sourcing rapidly changing roles of u s parent firms and their foreign affiliates in technology development and global sourcing relationships portend a maturing yet arduous shift toward a global rationalization

the intertemporal allocation of expenditure on non durables services and durables this paper presents estimates of the parameters of a consumption function for u s quarterly seasonally unadjusted data on non durables services and durables the theoretical novelty in the approach we present is in the derivation of the consumption function from an underlying many goods allocation problem applying this model with an appropriate estimator to the data we find i the homogeneity restrictions suggested by theory are not rejected ii there is no evidence of excess sensitivity to income iii there is no evidence to suggest that agents cannot adjust their durable stocks as they would wish and iv the intertemporal substitution elasticity is not well determined

the impact of technological innovation on international trade patterns the evidence reconsidered abstract this paper presents some new evidence in relation to the role of technical change in particular industrial innovation on the international competitiveness of the various oecd countries its originality consists primarily of a using a technology output indicator to measure technological performance b presenting and comparing various measures of trade and technological performance for each individual oecd country with the exception of iceland c analysing at a relatively high level of product industry disaggregation the relationship between export performance and technological performance at the same time the very limited scope of the paper has to be emphasized a the analysis is purely static all the evidence presented relates to one year 1977 b most of the results obtained are preliminary and should be further substantiated by more detailed empirical and theoretical research c as a consequence little attention has been paid to policy implications which it was felt could only be discussed properly in a later stage the paper consists of four sections a brief review of the state of the art section 1 a discussion on definitions of technology intensity section 2 the development of the best technology output indicator section 3 and the empirical analysis itself section 4 the following most important results emerge from these various sections a there are serious shortcomings in using average technology intensity as bench mark for classifying products or industries in technology intensive or nontechnology intensive categories b there is a substantial difference between technology intensity as measured on the basis of a technology input proxy rd c yet as between countries the most traditional output and input indicators the number of patents granted and the amount spent on rd d foreign patenting in particular foreign patenting in the united states figs 1 and 2 section 3 is a more reliable technology output proxy than domestic patenting e in terms of technological comparative advantage as opposed to technology intensity it is the small oecd countries as opposed to the large ones which seem to base their trade comparative advantage on technological comparative performance table 7 section 4 1 f at the individual industry level it is found that i for most technology intensive industries defined however in a less restrictive way than us r d intensities a close relation exists between technological performance and export performance and ii that as compared to other country specific resource variables technological performance is the most important trade explanatory variable its elasticity increasing with the technology intensity of industries tables 11 and 12 section 4 2 space constraints prevented us from presenting the data in relation to the inter industry and inter country analysis these can however be obtained from the author

information cascades replication and an extension to majority rule and conformity rewarding institutions in a randomly determined order each agent was given an independent private signal about which of two states was selected by a random draw after receiving the private signal each agent made a publicly announced decision about the state thus at the time of personal decision each agent had a private signal and also knew the decisions of all preceding agents the experiments focused on three different types of organization 1 agents were rewarded according to whether their announced decision was right or wrong this individualistic institution is the one studied by anderson and holt aer 1997 their discovery of information cascades is replicated 2 agents were rewarded according to whether a majority of announced decisions were right or wrong under this majority rule institution the instance of information cascades is sharply reduced 3 agents are rewarded more according to whether their personal announced decision was the same as the majority decision than they were rewarded if their decision was correct this conformity rewarding institution is motivated by proceedings in which there is incentive to produce reports that conform to the reports of others substantial information cascades are observed

trade liberalization comparative advantage and scale economies stock market evidence from canada abstract the canada united states free trade agreement fta provides an excellent opportunity to analyze the impact of a comprehensive trade liberalization in this paper a stock market event study is employed to capture investors expectations about the consequences of this agreement for manufacturing firms in canada the primary question addressed is whether abnormal stock market returns corresponding to news about the fta are consistent with hypotheses based on comparative advantage and economies of scale the results indicate that both comparative advantage and scale economies played a role in determining investors perceptions of the impact of the fta