what do we know about macroeconomics that fisher and wicksell did not the answer to the question in the title is a lot in this essay i argue that the history of macroeconomics during the 20th century can be divided into three epochs

the inexorable and mysterious tradeoff between inflation and unemployment this paper discusses the short run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment although this tradeoff remains a necessary building block of business cycle theory economists have yet to provide a completely satisfactory explanation for it according to the consensus view among central bankers and monetary economists a contractionary monetary shock raises unemployment at least temporarily and leads to a delayed and gradual fall in inflation standard dynamic models of price adjustment however cannot explain this pattern of responses reconciling the consensus view about the effects of monetary policy with models of price adjustment remains an outstanding puzzle for business cycle theorists several years ago i gave myself a peculiar assignment i decided to try to summarise all of economics in ten simply stated principles the purpose of this task was to introduce students to the economic way of thinking in the first chapter of my textbook principles of economics i figured if god could boil all of moral philosophy down to ten commandments i should be able to do much the same with economic science most of the ten principles i chose were microeconomic and hard to argue with they involved the importance of tradeoffs marginal analysis the benefits of trade market efficiency market failure and so on i allocated the last three principles to macroeconomics the first of these was a country s standard of living depends on its ability to produce goods and services which i viewed as the foundation of all growth theory the second was prices rise when the government prints too much money which i took to be the essence of classical monetary theory the last of my ten principles is the subject of today s lecture society faces a short run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment perhaps not surprisingly this statement turned out to be controversial when my publisher sent out the manuscript for review a few readers objected

adapting prices or quantities in the presence of adjustment costs it is often hypothesized that costs of adjusting both price and quantities may have important implications for the macroeconomic adjustment process not least to nominal shocks we analyse this in an explicit intertemporal general equilibrium model considering the empirically relevant case of fixed costs of adjusting prices and fixed and variable costs of adjusting quantities we find that the presence of both price and quantity adjustment costs changes the response to shocks significantly it is an implication that small shocks do not support the menu cost case but rather both fixed prices and quantities rationing a numerical analysis based on available evidence on adjustment costs is used to illustrate the likelihood that the various adjustment patterns actually arise

limited rationality and strategic interaction the impact of the strategic environment on nominal inertia much evidence suggests that people are heterogeneous with regard to their abilities to make rational forward looking decisions this raises the question as to when the rational types are decisive for aggregate outcomes and when the boundedly rational types shape aggregate results we examine this question in the context of a long standing and important economic problem the adjustment of nominal prices after an anticipated monetary shock our experiments suggest that two types of bounded rationality money illusion and anchoring are important behavioral forces behind nominal inertia however depending on the strategic environment bounded rationality has vastly different effects on aggregate price adjustment if agents actions are strategic substitutes adjustment to the new equilibrium is extremely quick whereas under strategic complementarity adjustment is both very slow and associated with relatively large real effects this adjustment difference is driven by price expectations which are very flexible and forward looking under substitutability but adaptive and sticky under complementarity moreover subjects expectations are also considerably more rational under substitutability

when does the prime rate change abstract we study the frequency of prime rate changes we model the prime rate as a time series variable that can be changed only at some cost this yields a logit model in which the probability of a prime rate change is a function of market variables we test this model using data from a micro data set that gives the dating of prime rate changes the results indicate that adjustment costs are important to the prime rate adjustment process and that changes in exogenous variables have a significantly larger effect on the probability of a prime rate increase than decrease

income redistribution in a common labor market when households are mobile among jurisdictions income redistribution by individual jurisdictions creates fiscal externalities a model of interjurisdictional migration is used to study the nature of this redistributive externality analysis of optimal redistribution and optimal corrective subsidies from higher level governments shows that benefit levels for the recipients of income transfers and tax rates on mobile taxpayers should be equalized across jurisdictions a system of jurisdictions with a common labor market can achieve welfare improvements through coordination of domestic redistributive policy or through the intervention of a higher level government copyright 1991 by american economic association

inflation costly price and quantity adjustments and time spent in the keynesian regime abstract this paper considers a menu cost firm under inflation due to costly quantity adjustments the firm is sometimes in a keynesian regime where sales are demand determined with a positive real interest rate the proportion of time in the keynesian regime is less than the inverse of the absolute value of the average elasticity of demand in that regime

adjustment costs inventories and output this paper analyzes the optimal adjustment strategy of an inventory holding firm facing price and quantity adjustment costs in an inflationary environment the model nests both the original menu cost model that allows production to be costlessly adjusted and the later model that includes price and quantity adjustment costs but rules out inventory holdings it is shown that the firm s optimal adjustment strategy may involve stockouts at low inflation rates output is inversely related to the inflation rate and the length of time demand is satisfied increases with the demand elasticity but decreases with the storage cost and the real interest rate

some evidence on lump sum versus convex costs of changing prices 2 two models in which price stickiness results from price adjustment costs are tested one an s s pricing model assumes lump sum adjustment costs and predicts firms will make relatively large infrequent price changes the other assumes convex adjustment costs and predicts frequent partial price adjustments survey data of firms price behavior reveal patterns consistent with the s s model however many of the patterns are also consistent with partial adjustment rules although the high percentage of firms which fix prices for a quarter or more casts doubt on the plausibility of the partialadjustment hypothesis i introduction in new keynesian economics price stickiness arises not because of wage rigidity so much as because either the gains to individual firms from changing prices are negligible or the costs of doing so deter full and immediate price changes as a result nominal shocks which affect demand for the firm s product as well as real shocks give rise to changes in output the nature and the timing of the effects of demand changes such as those initiated by monetary policy thus depend on how individual firms respond to the signals they receive sticky price models based on costs of price adjustment take at least two different forms one assumes a lump sum cost to changing prices which leads to predictions that firms generally keep prices fixed and make infrequent relatively large price changes the other assumes convex adjustment costs and leads to the prediction that firms make relatively small and frequent partial adjustments toward a target level evidence drawn from a series of surveys conducted by the national federation of independent business will be used to test the predictions from these two types of models while the data do not allow a definitive test between the two models the available evidence supports the model with lump sum costs of changing prices with the important proviso that there be substantial heterogeneity in the relative costs to firms of making price changes so that the frequency and size of changes vary considerably across firms ii s s rules with lump sum costs of price changes how frequently should a firm change its price when a change takes place how large should it be sheshinski and weiss 1977 and barro 1972 provided the first answers to these questions in their models an individual firm incurs a lump sum cost when changing its nominal price and the firm s profits depend on its real price where real price is defined as the firm s nominal price divided by an index of the prices of all other firms in the economy sheshinski and weiss assume that the firm tries to maximize the present value of its real profits their solution amounts to what is known in the optimal inventory literature as an s s rule in which s s units are ordered when stocks run down to s as applied to a pricing rule when prices rise elsewhere in the economy the firm s real price falls to a lower bound s at which point the firm raises its nominal price so that its real price jumps to s they prove that a more rapid general inflation rate calls for a lower s and higher s furthermore subject to a monotonicity condition a higher general inflation rate calls for a shorter time between price changes after showing a number of numerical examples sheshinski and weiss report that numerical experiments with a quadratic profit function give high intervals between price changes 1 2 years even with very low adjustment costs 1977 300 when the profit function is flat in the neighborhood of the profit maximizing real price there is little benefit from changing price a similar argument appears in the menu cost explanation for real effects of nominal disturbances in the absence of private incentives for individual price changes there may be real aggregate effects of nominal disturbances for example see mankiw 1985 akerlof and yellen 1985 kuran 1986 blanchard and kiyotaki 1987

evaluating unemployment policies what do the underlying theories tell us the paper surveys unemployment policies for advanced market economies and evaluates them by examining the predictions of the underlying macroeconomic theories the basic idea is that for the most part different unemployment policy prescriptions rest on different macroeconomic theories and our confidence in the prescriptions should depend at least in part on theories ability to predict some salient stylized facts about unemployment behavior the paper considers four types of policies laissez faire demand management policies supply side policies and structural policies copyright 1995 by oxford university press

analytical approximations in models of hysteresis decisions made under ongoing uncertainty and costly reversibility entail a range of the state variable where inaction is optimal which in turn produces hysteresis permanent effects of temporary shifts the range is usually defined by non linear equations that need numerical solutions in this paper a technique of analytical approximations is developed and applied to two models menu costs and investment the resulting explicit solutions help clarify why hysteresis is important even for small irreversibility in the menu cost model hysteresis is two orders of magnitude larger than under the akerlof yellen or mankiw assumptions when decisions that are costly to reverse are made under conditions of ongoing uncertainty the optimum policy usually entails a range of inertia the action should be taken only when the value of the underlying state variable becomes especially favourable and reversed only when it becomes especially unfavourable there is an intermediate range over which inaction is optimal this in turn gives rise to hysteresis starting from a value in the range of inertia if the state variable crosses the action trigger point and then returns to its original level the action will be taken but not reversed thus a temporary change will leave a permanent effect numerical solutions for models of irreversible investment show that the range of inaction is remarkably large even when the cost of reversal is small see brennan and schwartz 1985 constantinides 1986 and dixit 1989a b for examples of this unfortunately the equations tlhat determine the optimum policy are highly non linear they do not have analytical solutions therefore we lack a clearer and more general understanding of why hysteresis is numerically so important in this paper i derive analytical approximations for the solutions of more general problems of this kind when the costs of change are small the idea that small costs of change induce large amounts of inertia has been popularized in the model of akerlof and yellen 1985 mankiw 1985 and others in these models second order small costs of making price changes yield price stickiness in response to first order changes in the money supply this is a simple application of the envelope theorem but these models are static and their application to a dynamic reality must assume either permanent shocks or static expectations when there is ongoing uncertainty which is rationally expected by the decision maker the option value of the status quo enlarges the zone where inaction is optimal adding these features to the mankiw akerlof yellen may model i show that fourth order small costs of change generate first order inertia

can more frequent price changes lead to price inertia nonneutralities in a state dependent pricing context the authors present a generalized s s state dependent pricing model in which menus are changed not just in response to price misalignment but also in response to factors such as changing product mix their model generates aggregate price inertia and so reverses an important earlier result on neutrality in state dependent pricing contexts in more general settings than previous modifications it also provides a compromise between state and time dependent rules gives a glimpse at the dynamic implications of menu cost models and reproduces two recent results one on phillips curve slopes and one on asymmetric fluctuations copyright 1997 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

money and the business cycle with one period nominal contracts a modified version of the nominal contract developed by j a gray 1976 and s fischer 1977 is introduced in a general equilibrium model with money which has been used in the real business cycle literature money is introduced in the model through cash in advance constraint two kinds of contracts are examined namely a nominal wage contract and a nominal price contract the nominal wage contract improves the fit of the model in many respects the nominal price contract increases the output volatility enormously but it has some unrealistic features

demand disturbances and aggregate fluctuations the implications of near rationality the paper investigates some properties of near rational models of the cycle examining two types of framework in the first an otherwise classical competitive economy is shown to respond to demand disturbances when some firms follow a near rational hiring policy in the second model a dynamic setting is addressed and a criterion termed stochastic near rationality is employed simulation results are consistent with recent empirical findings and suggest that further quantitative evaluation is merited copyright 1987 by royal economic society

near rationality in wage setting this study argues that it is interesting to examine near rational behaviour in the context of an efficiency wage model where there are positive if decreasing returns to increasing the wage beyond the efficient level previous research has found it difficult to distinguish between efficiency wage and bargaining models which have similar empirical predictions but unions are a priori more likely to develop in environments in which the technology favours efficiency wage payments this makes it interesting to investigate what it costs the firm to deviate from the efficiency wage if it does not cost a lot firms may give in to union demands this study derives expressions for the wage deviation and for the associated profit loss for illustrative purposes these are calibrated for uk us and indian manufacturing taking a plausible parameterization of the effort wage function and using available estimates of the wage and employment elasticities of output while there is evidence of positive effort returns t

international evidence on sticky consumption growth abstract this paper estimates the degree of stickiness in aggregate consumption growth sometimes interpreted as reflecting consumption habits for thirteen advanced economies we find that after controlling for measurement error consumption growth has a high degree of autocorrelation with a stickiness parameter of about 0 7 on average across countries the sticky consumption growth model outperforms the random walk model of hall 1978 and typically fits the data better than the popular mankiw 1989 model though in a few countries the sticky consumption growth and campbell mankiw models work about equally well

complex business cycles and recurrent unemployment in a non walrasian macroeconomic model abstract in a dynamic non t tonnement macroeconomic model trades take place in each period even when prices are not walrasian prices are adjusted between trading periods according to the intensity of disequilibrium a reliable measure of which is obtained by means of stochastic rationing the degree of downward nominal wage stickiness as well as government policy parameters are decisive for the dynamics that emerge in particular it is possible for the economy to converge to quasi stationary states involving permanent unemployment and decreasing nominal wages or to produce complex business cycles with structural features recurrent over time but varying and unpredictable shape and size

sticky wage or sticky price analysis of the cyclical behavior of the real wage the study of business cycles has been at the heart of macroeconomic theory for decades theoretical efforts have focused on providing an adequate explanation for sources of economic fluctuations new keynesian explanations have emphasized rigidity that interferes with market forces increasing the effect of demand shocks on the output produced the form of rigidity is in sharp contrast between sticky wage and sticky price models the former imposes rigidity on the shortrun adjustment of wages to demand shocks 20 47 the latter in contrast imposes rigidity on the short run price adjustment to demand shocks 2 34 40 9 43 4 the theoretical plausibility of competing explanations of business cycles has stimulated interest to establish their empirical validity 32 28 1 8 11 23 21 26 these efforts have focused attention on cyclical fluctuations of the real wage in response to demand shocks the real wage may move procyclically or countercyclically according to the relative adjustment of wages and prices the interest in studying the cyclical behavior of the real wage relates to its implications to the real effects of aggregate demand shocks in the context of sticky wage models nominal wage rigidity reinforces the countercyclical response of the real wage to demand shocks and the real effect of these shocks on output growth sticky price models in contrast advocate that price rigidity increases the procyclical response of the real wage to demand shocks and their real effect on output growth the results of earlier investigations of the cyclical behavior of the real wage appear conflicting and therefore do not lend support to a given explanation 2 the present investigation seeks to contribute to this literature unlike previous empirical research on the subject the objective of this investigation is to study the cyclical behavior of the real wage and the relative flexibility of the nominal wage and the price level that determines this behavior in response to demand shocks using data for the united states in the preand post world war ii sample periods the cyclical

james tobin an appreciation of his contribution to economics jim tobin who died on march 11 2002 at the age of 84 was one of giants of economics of the second half of the twentieth century and the greatest macroeconomist of his generation tobin s influence on macroeconomic theory is so pervasive so much part of our professional acquis that many younger economists often are not even aware that it is his ideas they are elaborating testing criticising refuting or re inventing in this appreciation i consider tobin s scholarly contributions made over a period of more than 50 years tobin received the 1981 nobel memorial prize for his analysis of financial markets and their relations to expenditure decisions employment production and prices i consider his contributions to mean variance portfolio demand and asset pricing theory especially the portfolio separation theorem pitfalls in financial model building portfolio balance and flow of funds models and the credit channel the life cycle model and social security econometric methodology including the tobit estimator and his pioneering work using both time series and cross sectional data to estimate food demand functions economic growth tobin s q the tobin tax the monetary and fiscal policy effectiveness debate first with milton friedman and then with the new classical macroeconomics and real business cycle schools and tobin s approach to methodological questions including microfoundations and aggregation

the near optimality of mark up pricing mark up pricing policies result in a loss of profits compared to marginal pricing behavior these losses however are often very small even for large changes in the money supply but by adopting a simple pricing rule the firm does not have to forecast the future and avoids the informational and computational costs required to determine the profit maximizing price each period thus even if these costs are small mark up pricing policies may be optimal or approximately so at least for some firms in a macro model this is likely to imply large monetary non neutralities

expectation calculation and macroeconomic dynamics the authors establish a framework wherein agents make expectation revision decisions subject to a specified calculation technology and preferences over forecast errors the technology endows agents with correctly specified economic models but the cost of expectation calculation using these models leads to gradual and incomplete adjustment to long run rational expectation equilibrium the rational expectations hypothesis emerges as a special case of the equilibrium paths obtained in the authors framework in a natural rate model of monetary policy calculation technology gives rise to long run nonneutrality and hysteresis effects and incomplete adjustment of forecast rules causes output fluctuations to be amplified copyright 1992 by american economic association

on the prevalence of labor contracts with fixed duration the prevalence of labor contracts with fixed duration seems surprising why is a fixed duration preferred to a stochastic duration that depends on the consumer price index in this paper the specification of the contract duration is determined endogenously the wage rate can be indexed to the consumer price index but there is a loss since the indexation must be the same for different types of shocks this loss increases with the variability of the contract duration since the loss due to the contracting cost depends on the expected discounted duration only a fixed duration is chosen copyright 1992 by american economic association

redistribution within and across the regions of a federation the authors reconsider the literature on redistribution within a federation with mobile agents they conclude that redistribution is a function best assigned to the national government local governments with diverse preferences for redistribution distort individual migration decisions the authors also examine the fiscal externality literature which has made an efficiency argument for interregional transfers they show that if local governments have the same preferences for redistribution the nash equilibrium is efficient if preferences are diverse the authors show that nationally imposed interregional transfers do not address the source of the inefficiency nevertheless interregional transfers are shown to be a part of decentralized behavior

deciding to provide local decisions on providing social welfare fiscal federalism predicts local governments will avoid social welfare expenditures owing to capital mobility across local jurisdictions yet census of governments data consistently show that many local governments provide one or more social welfare functions and moreover many jurisdictions provide these functions without federal or state intergovernmental support this article finds evidence that while local expenditures are largely driven by fiscal capacity and federal and state assistance local decisions on providing social welfare functions and participating in intergovernmental revenues are primarily affected by degree of capital mobility and by local political factors consequently local governments exercise much greater autonomy over social welfare policymaking than fiscal federalism suggests

expectations and monetary neutrality an empirical reexamination modern monetary business cycle models feature rational expectations and natural rate assumptions which imply that unanticipated changes in nominal aggregates affect real output but anticipated changes do not initial tests conducted by barro 3 and by barro and rush 4 supported the neutrality of anticipated money growth in a particularly influential study mishkin 21 22 rejected the neutrality of anticipated policy mishkin s paper 21 has become one of the most frequently cited studies in empirical macroeconomics the influence of the study probably derives in large part from the unequivocal nature of the results in particular mishkin showed that i the hypothesis that anticipated policy has no effect on output is strongly rejected ii anticipated nominal changes have a greater estimated effect on output than do unanticipated nominal changes iii lags as long as 17 quarters have significant coefficients implying that barro s eight lag model was underspecified iv in some specifications the estimated sign of the effect of nominal innovations is opposite to the prediction of monetary business cycle theory frydman and rappoport 9 used mishkin s empirical model to provide further evidence against the neutrality hypothesis by showing that the data provide no evidence for distinguishing between the output effects of anticipated policy and those of unanticipated policy although several subsequent studies have supported the neutrality hypothesis 7 12 mishkin s careful study and a small number of additional studies suggest that the neutrality hypothesis is not robust the empirical rejection of the neutrality hypothesis contradicts a wide range of modern monetary models including those based on imperfect information 14 18 19 and those based on imperfect competition 8 20 as a consequence the focus of macroeconomists has in recent years shifted to non monetary models in which money responds passively to changes in aggregate output 16 17 this paper explores the robustness of mishkin s results using an updated data set the model yields results that are more consistent with the neutrality hypothesis than those of mishkin in par

budget spillovers and fiscal policy interdependence evidence from the states abstract this paper formalizes and tests the notion that states expenditures depend on the spending of similarly situated states we find that even after allowing for fixed state effects year effects and common random shocks among neighbors a state government s level of per capita expenditure is positively and significantly affected by the expenditure levels of its neighbors ceteris paribus a one dollar increase in a state s neighbors expenditures increases its own expenditure by over 70 cents

inflation inertia and credible disinflation abstract we develop a model of optimizing forward looking staggered price setting where even fully credible disinflations display a delayed and gradual inflation response and significant output losses there is a welfare trade off between these output losses and the gains from smaller inflationary distortions for reasonable parameter values disinflation improves welfare and more so if it is phased in gradually the pricing assumption of our model yields dynamics that are similar to models of sticky information but its state space is much simpler thereby allowing for the application of standard linearization methods

the fiscal effect of community composition on public services and welfare abstract i consider the changes in the public service level and in the utility of wealthy families when a community of wealthy families expands to include more poor families public expenditure is financed by a property tax and set by majority voting because adjustments in housing are sluggish families vote treating house sizes as fixed and utility is not maximized the model structure suggests that the signs of the changes are a priori ambiguous in particular the fiscal deterioration may cause the public service level to rise and the utility of the wealthy resident to be increased the changes are estimated in a model with typical parameter estimates

regulation quality adjustment and relative price changes the case of the yen appreciation shock of 1985 one of the best known events in the post war economic history of japan is the sharp appreciation of the yen in the mid 1980s the dollar yen exchange rate which had been hovering around 240 during the early 1980s between the inauguration of the reagan administration in january 1981 and the plaza agreement in september 1985 tumbled to 122 in december 1987 almost doubling the yen s value in two years see figure13 1 both the magnitude and speed of appreciation were unprecedented whose record has not been broken until now 1

optimal policy business cycles the effectiveness of economic policies depends on the nature of expectations under adaptive expectations the philipps curve allows a governement to surprise agents under rational expectations there is less room for economic policies we assume that only an endogenously determined proportion of agents form rational expectations and show that this leads the government to optimal policies which result in a policy cycle with real effects c 1998 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

retail price fixity as a facilitating mechanism previous theoretical explanations for retail price fixity show that fixed retail prices can be consistent with either competitive or imperfectly competitive behavior we develop a conceptual model of retail pricing wherein fixed price points are facilitating mechanisms for tacit collusion a non cooperative equilibrium in fixed retail prices is supported through credible threats to revert to nash pricing if cheating is suspected we test the implications of this model using a two stage ordered probit approach in weekly supermarket pricing data the results show that price fixity does support collusive equilibria among retailers but other factors may also explain retail price behavior

in the name of energy security the struggle over the exportation of israeli natural gas the aim of this study is to place the notion of energy security under critical scrutiny by unpacking how different actors manipulate the term through the mobilization of existential language as a prism for creating securitization discourse through an examination of an israeli inter ministerial committee charged with developing national policy regarding newly discovered natural gas reserves off the coast of israel the study finds that the concept of energy security is open for manipulation and various interpretations while some actors stress environmental acceptability and independency as pillars of energy security others prioritized supply reliability and geopolitical benefits associated with gas exportation each definition of energy security was also found to be anchored in different ideologies goals policies and legitimizing factors the coupling of energy with securitization rhetoric was ultimately determined as working against cooperative efforts as committee conflicts intensified and suggested institutional measures became disproportional

on the infrequent adjustment of price by firms i introduction recent research by blinder 1991 indicates that as many as 75 percent of all firms change price no more than twice a year according to the wall street journal these findings seem to have caused considerable surprise 1 there is however nothing unusual about these results infrequent price adjustment by firms can be readily explained by the existence of very small price adjustment or menu costs and the fact that deviations from optimal price adjustment policies often result in negligible reductions in a firm s average rate of profit this paper brings together in a dynamic setting two ingredients in the literature that have previously been linked only in a static framework the small menu cost argument of mankiw 1985 and the near rational argument of akerlof and yellen 1985 numerical examples are used to answer the familiar objection that price adjustment costs are too small to be important the main conclusions of the paper remain valid for a wide variety of plausible parameter values and do not depend on extreme assumptions concerning the flatness of the firm s profit function the basic insight that under imperfect competition first order deviations from optimal behavior imply second order losses was first made by bowley 1924 25 this idea was further developed by akerlof and yellen 1985 since the firm s profit function is flat at its maximum point failure to adjust price in response to small exogenous shocks implies very small losses even if price adjustment is costless if there are some costs associated with changing price a policy of rigid prices in the face of small nominal shocks may be optimal this would seem to provide a micro explanation for sticky prices these ideas are usually expounded in the framework of a static two period model 2 further the conclusions reached are only valid for small deviations from optimal behavior the present paper extends the argument to a dynamic framework of continual inflation and its conclusions are shown to remain valid for large deviations from optimal pricing policies 3 the paper makes two main points first very small price adjustment costs often lead to surprising long intervals between price changes even when the length of this interval is chosen optimally second the loss of profits suffered by the firm when the interval between price changes is much greater than the optimal value is often negligible large deviations from optimal policies typically imply very small losses this is a much stronger claim than the familiar argument that small deviations from optimality imply second order losses and it does not follow from the envelope theorem if a firm adopts a simple rule of say changing price twice a year regardless of the inflation rate it may earn a level of profit practically indistinguishable from that it would earn if it behaved optimally at least for inflation rates experienced in the western democracies since world war ii the standard objection to the menu cost explanation of infrequent price adjustment is that these costs are much too small to explain observed pricing behavior the examples presented below show that this objection can be discounted seemingly trivial price adjustment costs as small as one millionth of the firm s annual revenue can explain price adjustment frequencies as low as once or twice a year at inflation rates of 20 percent per annum and above part of the explanation concerns the flatness of the firm s profit function over a wide range of plausible values of demand and cost parameters profit functions are sufficiently flat to explain observed frequencies of price adjustment even when the interval between price changes is optimal but there is more too it than this large deviations from optimal price adjustment policies imply surprisingly small losses even for profit functions that would never be described as flat in particular the loss in profit caused by large deviations in the interval between price changes from its optimal value are normally very small

expenditure spillovers and fiscal interactions empirical evidence from local governments in spain abstract the paper presents a framework for measuring spillovers resulting from local expenditure policies we identify and test for two different types of expenditure spillovers i benefit spillovers arising from the provision of local public goods and ii crowding spillovers arising from the crowding of facilities by residents in neighboring jurisdictions benefit spillovers are accounted for by assuming that the representative resident enjoys the consumption of a local public good in both his own community and in those surrounding it crowding spillovers are included by considering that a locality s consumption level is influenced by the population living in the surrounding localities we estimate a reaction function with interactions between local governments occurring not only between expenditure levels but also between neighbors populations and expenditures the equation is estimated using data on more than 2500 spanish local governments for the year 1999 the results show that both types of spillovers are relevant

a near rational model of the business cycle with wage and price inertia this paper presents a model in which insignificantly suboptimal behavior causes aggregate demand shocks to have significant real effects the individual loss to agents with inertial price wage behavior is second order in terms of the parameter describing the shock while the effect on real economic variables is first order thus significant changes in business activity can be generated by anticipated money supply changes provided that some agents are willing to engage in nonmaximizing behavior which results in small losses

monetary policy judgment and near rational exuberance we study how the use of judgement or add factors in macroeconomic forecasting may disturb the set of equilibrium outcomes when agents learn using recursive methods we examine the possibility of a new phenomenon which we call exuberance equilibria i n the new keynesian monetary policy framework inclusion of judgement in forecasts can lead to self fulfilling fluctuations in a subset of the determinacy region we study how policymakers can minimize the risk of exuberance

on fiscal disparities across cities abstract some cities have fewer taxable resources and higher costs for providing public services than do other cities the result which is widely regarded as unfair is a wide variation in the ability of cities to supply public services but our understanding of these fiscal disparities particularly on the cost side is limited this paper provides a general treatment of fiscal disparities by incorporating input and environmental costs into a model of local expenditure determination investigating the consequences of fiscal disparities in a system of local governments including housing price adjustments and migration and designing intergovernmental grants to offset fiscal disparities

theoretical developments in the light of macroeconomic policy and empirical research macroeconomics is surveyed with emphasis on the implications of the new classical and rational expectations critiques for the keynesian paradigm and the role of macro policies at the background are the main macro developments of the 1 970s and 1 980s as well as the specific lessons of recent high chronic inflation processes a synthesis is emerging in which the basic keynesian view of the existence of market and price coordination failures as well as room for pareto improving policy intervention are maintained at the same time the theoretical underpinnings are undergoing substantial change mainly due to a rational expectations reformulation

customer markets and price sensitivity this paper investigates the behavior of prices in customer markets of the phelps winter type under uncertainty it is shown that the responsiveness of prices to short run demand and cost changes depends crucially on whether the marginal customer is price risk averse or price risk loving if he is price risk averse loving then the customer market price is less more flexible than the monopoly price competition makes the customer market price more rigid flexible if the marginal customer is price risk averse loving the scope of rigid customer market prices is wide if near rational behavior of customers and the adjustment cost in the consumption process are taken into consideration copyright 1989 by the london school of economics and political science

inter industry mobility and the cyclical upgrading of labor we investigate whether a market clearing model is consistent with industry employment and wage patterns related to the cyclical upgrading of labor we demonstrate that roy s 1951 market clearing

poverty and urban public expenditures cities in the us bear a disproportionate responsibility for the public expenditures that grow out of poverty because they contain disproportionate numbers of the poor and because a substantial part

variation in the effects of aggregate demand shocks evidence and implications across industrial countries over a sample of nineteen industrial countries more variable aggregate demand and or higher mean inflation attenuates augments the effect of aggregate demand shocks on real output growth wage and price inflation while having no effect on the response of the real wage to such shocks in all countries examined aggregate demand shocks are positively negatively correlated with nominal variables real output among explanations of the business cycle based on shocks to aggregate demand this evidence favors the new keynesian sticky wage explanation over the sticky price and the new classical imperfect information explanations

some evolutionary foundations for price level rigidity this paper shows that price rigidity evolves in an economy populated by imperfectly rational agents who experiment with alternative rules of thumb in the model firms must set their prices in face of aggregate demand shocks their payoff depends on the level of aggregate demand as well as on their own price and their neighbor s price the latter assumption captures local interactions despite the fact that the rational expectations equilibrium ree is characterized by a simple pricing rule that firms can easily adopt the economy does not converge to the ree for all parameter values when the volatility of monetary innovations is low and interactions among firms are high the aggregate price level exhibits rigidity in that it does not fully react to contemporaneous aggregate demand shocks we discuss the role of the nature of experimentation and of path dependence driven by interactions in explaining these results

optimal pricing with costly adjustment evidence from retail grocery prices in many theoretical models it is assumed that there are costs associated with adjusting prices in this paper the existence type and magnitude of such costs are investigated empirically a discrete choice dynamic programming model that nests fixed and variable costs is developed and econometric estimates of the adjustment cost function are obtained the data used to implement the model consist of weekly retail prices and sales of three brands of saltine crackers sold by four chains of grocery stores in a small u s town the study has several distinguishing characteristics first the data are highly disaggregate at the level of brand and store second variables are sampled at weekly intervals third the model nests fixed and variable adjustment costs and can therefore determine their relative importance finally the discrete choice model is both structural and dynamic

the magnitude of menu costs direct evidence from large u s supermarket chains we use store level data to document the exact process of changing prices and to directly measure menu costs at five multistore supermarket chains we show that changing prices in these establishments is a complex process requiring dozens of steps and a nontrivial amount of resources the menu costs average 105 887 year per store comprising 0 70 percent of revenues 35 2 percent of net margins and 0 52 price change these menu costs may be forming a barrier to price changes specifically 1 a supermarket chain facing higher menu costs due to item pricing laws that require a separate price tag on each item changes prices two and one half times less frequently than the other four chains 2 within this chain the prices of products exempt from the law are changed over three times more frequently than the products subject to the law in principle fixed costs of changing prices can be observed and measured in practice such costs take disparate forms in different firms and we have no data on their magnitude so the theory can be tested at best indirectly at worst not at all alan blinder 1991 p 90

the new keynesian synthesis the new keynesians made more rapid progress in understanding the microeconomics of unemployment than in understanding the microeconomics of nominal price rigidity but the past five years have seen important breakthroughs in this second area this paper will describe these breakthroughs discuss our current understanding of nominal rigidity and assess the work that remains to be done

do central banks act asymmetrically empirical evidence from the ecb and the bank of england the paper attempts to exploit whether monetary authorities have a different behaviour during recession and expansion to this end a multivariate extension of hamilton markov switching model is adopted first regime dependent taylor type rules are estimated for the euro area and the united kingdom in order to capture the systematic behaviour of central banks then impulse response functions that account for the different phases of the business cycle are analysed in addition a comparative analysis concerning the estimated rules as well as the different reaction of real economy to monetary shocks is implemented the study strongly suggests that central banks cannot neglect the regime where the monetary action takes place it follows that the phase of business cycle is an important matter in monetary policy decision process

the life cycle model of consumption and saving a central implication of life cycle models is that agents smooth consumption we review the empirical evidence on smoothing at frequencies from within the year up to across a lifetime we find that life cycle models particular those which incorporate realistic features of markets and goods have more empirical successes than failures we also show that some apparent deviations from theoretical predictions imply very small welfare losses for agents finally we emphasize that the coherence of life cycle models imposes an important discipline when incorporating new features into models

the linear expenditure system and the demand for municipal public services the median voter specification revisited following bergstrom and goodman 1973 this paper contributes to the set of studies estimating demand for publicly provided goods and services the main innovation in this paper is methodological as it uses a stone geary utility function to describe median voter preferences unlike in previous studies the local public expenditure function in a simplified linear expenditure system can be derived directly from the theoretical framework the translated expenditure function provides an estimate of the minimum required local public services in each municipality using cross sectional municipal data from france it is found to be at the most 30 per cent of the total per capita expenditure compared with the specification conventionally used in the literature linear and non linear expenditure systems show a greater sensitivity to price and income variations and reveal a greater number of significant variables

theoretical foundations for sticky wages abstract the paper compares three different types of theoretical explanation of sticky wages they are implicit contracts efficiency wage models and insider outsider models it then reconsiders keynes rationale for sticky wages which focuses on relative wage issues finally the paper considers possible directions for future research

a mixed industrial structure magnifies the importance of menu costs new keynesian literature assumes symmetric industrial structure when analysing explanations of money non neutrality this paper analyses the impact of modifying this assumption by allowing for a mixed industrial structure some industries are characterized by monopolistic competition others by perfect competition the mixed industrial structure implies misallocation of labour between the different industries which may contribute to explanations of non neutrality of money following a 5 money increase the menu costs needed for non neutrality may be 40 times smaller and ratio of welfare gain over private loss more than 100 times larger than in the corresponding model with a symmetric structure

price adjustments in a general model of state dependent pricing we study the distribution of retail price adjustments under the assumption that firms are more likely to adjust their prices when doing so is more valuable our setup nests calvo 1983 at one extreme and a fixed menu cost model at the other all parameterizations are ranked by a measure of state dependence high state dependence implies counterfactually that there are no small price changes and that the variance of price changes falls sharply with trend inflation the parameterization that best fits microdata has low state dependence implying a phillips curve coefficient 60 as large as that of the calvo model but is nonetheless well behaved at high inflation rates

beliefs and consumer search in a vertical industry this paper studies vertical relations in a search market as the wholesale arrangement between a manufacturer and its retailers is typically unobserved by consumers their beliefs about who is to be blamed for a price deviation play a crucial role in determining wholesale and retail prices the common assumption in the consumer search literature is that consumers exclusively blame an individual retailer for a price deviation we show that in the vertical relations context predictions based on this assumption are not robust in the sense that if consumers assign just a small probability to the event that the upstream manufacturer is responsible for the deviation equilibrium predictions are qualitatively di erent for the robust beliefs the vertical model can explain a variety of observations such as retail price rigidity or alternatively low cost pass through non monotonicity of retail prices in search costs and seemingly collusive retail behavior the model can be used to study a monopoly online platform that sells access to nal consumers

what differentiates industrial business cycles a cross country investigation theoretical explanations appear in sharp contrast concerning the determinants of demand driven industrial business cycles aggregate factors are likely to differentiate cyclical fluctuations for a given industry across countries industry specific factors are likely to differentiate cyclical fluctuations across industries of a given economy the differences are evaluated using data for industries producing private domestic output across a group of major industrial countries aggregate factors dominate industryspecific factors in explaining industrial cyclical fluctuations in response to aggregate demand shifts consistent with the various explanations higher variability of aggregate demand moderates the response of industrial output to aggregate demand shifts across countries contrary to the implications of the new classical imperfect information model cyclical fluctuations in industrial output appear also smaller in response to higher trend price inflation across countries business cycles appear the

the theory of evolution and the evolution of theory veblen s methodology in contemporary perspective this paper traces recent developments in economic theory from the perspective of thorstein veblen s methodological distinction between teleological and evolution modes of scientific thought it is argued that the imposition of rational behavior at the individual level prevents neoclassical theory from exhibiting genuine evolutionary processes since decision rules are prevented from emerging out of a process of adaptation to a changing environment the standard rationality postulate can nevertheless give rise to quasi evolutionary sequences at the aggregate level this possibility is blocked in macroeconomic literature by the use of the representative agent construct and the imposition of the hypothesis of self fulfilling expectations c 1996 academic press limited copyright 1996 by oxford university press

adaptive expectations coordination in an economy with heterogeneous agents abstract in this paper we study the problem of expectations coordination on the stationary state in a one dimensional economy with heterogeneous agents we consider a constant gain adaptive learning rule we allow for heterogeneity of the fundamentals and of the constant gain parameters we show that these two sources of heterogeneity may create difficulties to the process of coordination

a joint test of market power menu costs and currency invoicing this article investigates exchange rate pass through erpt and currency invoicing decisions of canadian pork exporters in the presence of menu costs it is shown that when export prices are negotiated in the exporter s currency menu costs cause threshold effects in the sense that there are bounds within outside of which price adjustments are not are observed conversely the pass through is not interrupted by menu costs when export prices are denominated in the importer s currency the empirical model focuses on pork meat exports from two canadian provinces to the u s and japan hansen s 2000 threshold estimation procedure is used to jointly test for currency invoicing and incomplete pass through in the presence of menu costs inference is conducted using the bootstrap with pre pivoting methods to deal with nuisance parameters the existence of menu cost is supported by the data in three of the four cases it also appears that quebec pork exporters have some market power and invoice in japanese yen their exports to japan manitoba exporters also seem to follow the same invoicing strategy but their ability to increase their profit margin in response to large enough own currency devaluations is questionable our currency invoicing results for sales to the u s are consistent with subsets of canadian firms using either the canadian or u s currency

the changing spatial concentration of income and poverty among suburbs of large us metropolitan areas after developing a longitudinal data base of civil divisions within 27 large metropolitan areas msas from the 1970 1990 us censuses this study examines changes in the spatial concentration of income and poverty within these msas a series of cross sectional analyses of geographical and social determinants of poverty rates and median household income are used to analyse whether the determinants are changing over time large older central cities in the north east and mid west have experienced increasing poverty and decreases in income relative to their own history and relative to their own suburbs there is some evidence of economic decline in the inner suburbs of these central cities relative to other suburbs but not relative to the central cities the geographical shifts in msa population among suburbs by income between 1970 and 1990 are analysed relative to initial social characteristics of civil divisions the study concludes that the filtering of older residential buildings to and the lower margi

real exchange rates and macroeconomics evidence and theory since the early 1980s a large body of research has thrown doubt on the relevance of macroeconomic models for understanding exchange rates the authors argue that a balanced reading of recent literature in exchange rate economics gives a more optimistic assessment many studies have established the pertinence of long run purchasing power parity ppp and the explanatory power of macroeconomic fundamentals in real exchange rate fluctuations a reasonably strong case can be made for a traditional macroeocnomic interpretation of real exchange rates which emphasizes short run price stickiness but long run ppp but a central new ingredient in this interpretation is the presence of international commodity market segmentation and persistent deviations from the law of one price an example is given of a dynamic general equilibrium model that can reproduce some of the observed features of real exchange rate fluctuations

a structural approach to identifying the sources of local currency price stability the inertia of the local currency prices of traded goods in the face of exchange rate changes is a well documented phenomenon in international economics this paper develops a structural model to identify the sources of this local currency price stability and applies it to micro data from the beer market the empirical procedure exploits manufacturers and retailers first order conditions in conjunction with detailed information on the frequency of price adjustments following exchange rate changes to quantify the relative importance of local non traded cost components markup adjustment by manufacturers and retailers and nominal price rigidities in the incomplete transmission of such changes to prices we find that on average approximately 60 of the incomplete exchange rate pass through is due to local non traded costs 8 to markup adjustment 30 to the existence of own brand price adjustment costs and 1 to the indirect strategic effect of such costs though these results vary considerably across individual brands according to their market shares

optimal sticky prices under rational inattention this paper presents a model in which price setting firms decide what to pay attention to subject to a constraint on information flow when idiosyncratic conditions are more variable or more important than aggregate conditions firms pay more attention to idiosyncratic conditions than to aggregate conditions when we calibrate the model to match the large average absolute size of price changes observed in micro data prices react fast and by large amounts to idiosyncratic shocks but only slowly and by small amounts to nominal shocks nominal shocks have strong and persistent real effects we use the model to investigate how the optimal allocation of attention and the dynamics of prices depend on the firms environment jel e 3 e5 d8

how much energy in energy policy the media on energy problems in developing countries with the example of poland abstract this paper reviews the media discussion of the energy crisis with a focus on presentation of energy policy in poland the results of the research presented in the paper illustrate how the media in developing countries legitimate energy policy and the activities of politicians and other decision makers in the energy sector the topic of environmental impact or renewable resources is hardly presented in the analysed media coverage and information about national energy pricing is spread widely at the same time the nationwide mass media do not refer to the domestic sector presenting energy problems at an abstract macro social level instead of shaping social knowledge and conscious of such issues as energy supply and efficiency potential in households the media construct self referential communication in each of the fields politics technology the economy based on habermas s distinction between the system and lifeworld and the assumption that the media both construct and reproduce knowledge about the world we have attempted to reconstruct the media discourse in the chosen area quantitative and qualitative analyses of polish press allowed us to reconstruct the narrative on the subject of the energy crisis the results could be the basis for critical revision of communication strategies in the energy sector especially questioning the problem of its efficiency and mutual understanding between different actors

how international oil and gas companies respond to local content policies in petroleum producing developing countries a narrative enquiry this paper uses narrative analysis to critically examine the business practices used by five international oil and gas companies iocs chevron exxonmobil shell bp and total to respond to local content policies in petroleum producing developing countries nigeria angola venezuela kazakhstan brazil indonesia yemen and indonesia during the period 2000 2012 the business practices include the formulation of local content strategies that are implemented through programmes and initiatives aimed at developing and using host country suppliers and workforce such practices and the narratives used to communicate them implicitly reflect the context in which the effectiveness of local content policies on economic development can be assessed by comparing and contrasting the narratives across the five iocs in relation to the wider literature four emergent narrative strategies justifying the business practices of iocs are identified and discussed they include 1 direct engagement to renegotiate local content requirements with governments 2 legal compliance framework 3 the business case for local content strategies and 4 corporate social responsibility csr initiatives the conclusion considers the policy implications of these findings for local content development in petroleum producing developing countries

nominal wage rigidity in contract data a parametric approach using wage agreements reached in the canadian unionized sector during 1976 99 a period of high as well as exceptionally low inflation we consider how histograms of wage adjustment changed as inflation reached the low levels of the 1990s the histograms and parametric tests suggest that wage adjustment is characterized by downward nominal rigidity and significant spikes at zero there is some evidence of modest menu cost effects we examine whether the rigidity features of wage adjustment are sensitive to indexation provisions and investigate whether the distinction between short and long contracts is useful

the worker discipline effect a disaggregative analysis the authors test for the presence of a worker discipline effect wherein macroeconomic conditions influence worker effort and examine interindustry variation in its strength an employment function analysis is first used to find evidence of a worker discipline effect in the majority of u s three digit manufacturing industries a factor analysis of industry firm and labor market characteristics is then used to identify several underlying factors by which industries can be distinguished the authors find that the strength of the worker discipline effect is positively and significantly correlated with the degree to which industries have secondary characteristics copyright 1990 by mit press

on endogenously staggered prices taylor s model of staggered contracts is an influential explanation for nominal inertia and the persistent real effects of nominal shocks however in standard imperfect competition models if agents are allowed to choose the timing of pricing decisions they will typically choose to synchronize this paper provides a simple model of imperfect competition which produces stable staggering our argument relies on strategic interaction at two levels between firms within an industries and across industries and produces a continuum of staggered price equilibria these equilibria are strict and hence stable under a simple adaptive learning process an enduring problem for business cycle theory is an explanation for the persistent effects of nominal shocks explaining persistence is particularly problematic for theories based on nominal shocks as opposed to real shocks this is because rational expectations implies that nominal shocks themselves cannot be serially correlated since nominal shocks are the deviation of realized nominal magnitudes from expected values in two important papers taylor 1979 1980 provided an argument as to why a nominal shock can have persistent effects taylor s argument required two important assumptions first he assumed that firms could adjust prices only in alternate periods an assumption which may be justified by menu or information costs taylor s second assumption was that price setting was staggered half the firms were constrained to adjust prices in odd periods while the other half were allowed to adjust prices in even periods these two assumptions combined to provide dramatic results on nominal inertia the adjustment of prices to a nominal shock is slow and hence output effects are long lasting taylor s results on persistence arise due to strategic complementarity between price setting decisions this implies that each firm s optimal price is an increasing function of the aggregate price level if a shock arrives in an even period firms in the even cohort will not adjust fully to the nominal shock since firms in the odd cohort have fixed prices in the current period furthermore with rational expectations the even cohort also takes into account the fact that its own failure to adjust fully will also make for partial adjustment in future periods this elegant story has made taylor s model possibly the most influential of new keynesian models by providing a dynamic setting within which small nominal rigidities may result in persistent nominal inertia