the diffusion of health technologies cultural and biological divergence abstract this paper proposes the hypothesis that genetic distance to the health frontier influences population health outcomes evidence from a world sample suggests that genetic distance interpreted as long term cultural and biological divergence is an important factor in understanding health inequalities across countries specifically the paper documents a remarkably robust negative link between genetic distance to the united states and population health as measured by life expectancy at birth and the adult survival rate even after accounting for an extensive set of possible confounders such as gdp per capita and various climatic factors consistent with the interpretation that genetic distance is related to population health indirectly through human barriers to the diffusion of modern health technologies the evidence indicates that the gene gradient emerges at the onset of the international epidemiological transition

the political economy of ngos and information sharing abstract to a large extent information sharing is what nongovernmental organizations ngos do and the costs of sharing information are falling dramatically joining politics and economics this paper builds an analytical framework to illuminate how these falling costs are affecting information intensive ngos in latin america case studies describe the various information sharing outputs and inputs of nonprofit ngo production i argue that the participatory activity of ngos affects both political and economic realms and that as the costs of sharing information fall ngos will be a more powerful link in the changing balance between states markets and civil society

the empirical content of the roy model this paper clarifies and extends the classical roy model of self selection and earnings inequality the original roy model based on the assumption that log skills are normally distributed is shown to imply that pursuit of comparative advantage in a free market reduces earnings inequality compared to the earnings distribution that would result if workers were randomly assigned to sectors aggregate log earnings are right skewed even if one sectoral distribution is left skewed most major implications of the log normal roy model survive if differences in skills are log concave however few implications of the model survive if skills are generated from more general distributions we consider the identifiability of the roy model from data on earnings distributions the normal theory version is identifiable without regressors or exclusion restrictions sectoral distributions can be identified knowing only the aggregate earnings distribution for general skill distributions the model is not identified and has no empirical content with sufficient price variation the model can be identified from multimarket data cross sectional variation in regressors can substitute for price variation in restoring empirical content to the roy model

structural transformation the mismeasurement of productivity growth and the cost disease of services if workers self select into industries based upon their relative productivity in different tasks and comparative advantage is aligned with absolute advantage then the average efficacy of a sector s workforce will be negatively correlated with its employment share this might explain the difference in the reported productivity growth of contracting goods and expanding services instrumenting with defense expenditures i find the elasticity of worker efficacy with respect to employment shares is substantially negative albeit estimated imprecisely the estimates suggest that the view that goods and services have similar productivity growth rates is a plausible alternative characterization of growth in developed economies jel e23 e24 h56 j24 o41 o47 one of the strongest and seemingly most accurate characterizations of the process and problems of growth in advanced economies is william baumol s cost disease of services baumol s argument begun in papers as early as 1965 and continuing to this very day e g baumol and bowen 1965 baumol 1967 baumol blackman and wolff 1985 and baumol 2012 starts from the premise that productivity growth is inherently more difficult to achieve in the production of services than in the pro

the structure of licensing contracts industrial organization theory has explored several issues related to licensing but empirical analyses are extremely rare we amass a new and detailed dataset on licensing contracts and use it to present some simple facts concerning licensing behavior our analysis reveals robust cross industries differences in several contractual features such as exclusivity cross licensing ex ante versus ex post technology transfers and licensing to related versus unrelated parties we offer an interpretation of these facts based on cross industry variation in the strength of intellectual property rights

the state popular participation and the voluntary sector abstract a key determinant in the development contribution of nongovernment organizations ngos is the relationship between ngos and the state ngos may run parallel activities they may play oppositional roles or they may represent weaker members of society organizing them to become more influential in decision making and resource allocation this civil society function entails moving from a supply side approach concentrating on project delivery to a demand side emphasis helping communities articulate their concerns and participate in development processes donors can use the policy dialogue to encourage governments to foster a more enabling environment for ngo activities

the law of demand and risk aversion this note proposes a necessary and sufficient condition on a utility function to guarantee that it generates a demand function satisfying the law of demand this condition can be interpreted in terms of an agent s attitude towards lotteries in commodity space as an application we show that when an agent has an expected utility function her demand for securities satisfies the law of demand if her coefficient of relative risk aversion does not vary by more than 4

spatial and economic patterns in life expectancy among us states this study investigates the determinants of gender specific life expectancy across us states over the period 1995 2007 we employ a production function specification where life expectancy depends o

the long term consequences of resource based specialisation using geological variation in oil abundance in the southern us i examine the long term effects of resource based specialisation through economic channels in 1890 oil abundant counties were similar to other nearby counties but after oil was discovered they began to specialise in its production from 1940 90 oil abundance increased local employment per square kilometre especially in mining but also in manufacturing oil abundant counties had higher population growth higher per capita income and better infrastructure 2010 the author s the economic journal 2010 royal economic society

estimating theoretically consistent demand systems using cointegration techniques with application to greek food data abstract the use of time series techniques cointegration and error correction models has been offered as a potentially promising way in estimating demand systems that resolve the perennial issue of violating the theoretical postulates of homogeneity and symmetry the empirical results of this paper based on linearized aids and greek food data indicate that sample size aggregation schemes and model specification seem to be important factors in the estimation of a theoretically consistent demand system they also show that homogeneity is sensitive to sample size while symmetry is sensitive to the aggregation scheme adopted

the gender gap fertility and growth changes in fertility have long been recognized as important correlates of economic growth with the relationship between the level of fertility and the level of income per capita being one of the strongest observable correlations in cross country data this paper examines the linkages between fertility and growth theory the structure of the model is presented in sections on production couples decision making system dynamics and steady state equilibria the first component of the model is that increases in capital per worker raise womens relative wages since capital is more complementary to womens labor input than to mens the second component is that increasing womens relative wages reduces fertility by raising the cost of children more than household income finally lower fertility raises the level of capital per worker a positive feedback loop generates demographic transition a rapid decline in fertility accompanied by accelerated output growth

from malthusian stagnation to modern growth this paper investigates the historical evolution of the relationship among population growth technological change and standard of living the analysis focuses on two most important differences among the malthusian regime post malthusian regime and modern growth regime these were the behavior of income per capita and the relationship between the level of income per capita and the population growth rate the modern growth regime is characterized by steady growth in both income per capita and the level of technology in the malthusian regime technological progress and population growth was glacial by modern standards and income per capita was fairly constant in contrast to the modern growth regime the relationship between per capita income and population growth in the malthusian regime was positive post malthusian regime shared one characteristic with each of the two regimes in addition this paper developed and described an endogenous growth model consistent with the above mentioned transition process

good for living on the relationship between globalization and life expectancy this paper analyzes the relationship between three dimensions economic social and political of globalization and life expectancy using a panel of 92 countries covering the 1970 2005 period using different estimation techniques and sample groupings we find that economic globalization has a robust positive effect on life expectancy even when controlling for income nutritional intake literacy number of physicians and several other factors the result also holds when the sample is restricted to low income countries only in contrast political and social globalization have no such robust effects

on behavioral complementarity and its implications we study the behavioral definition of complementary goods if the price of one good increases demand for a complementary good must decrease we obtain its full implications for observable demand behavior its testable implications and for the consumer s underlying preferences we characterize those data sets which can be generated by rational preferences exhibiting complementarities the class of preferences that generate demand complements has leontief and cobb douglas as its as extreme members

demand pull technology push and government led incentives for non incremental technical change abstract rising expectations about future demand for new technologies increase the incentives for investments in innovation by enlarging payoffs to successful innovations how well does this notion of demand pull apply to non incremental technological change when demand is largely attributable to actions by governments in this case inventors of the most important inventions did not respond positively to strong demand pull policies filing of highly cited patents declined precipitously just as demand for wind power created a multi billion dollar market three explanations for this apparent inconsistency with the demand pull hypothesis played a role 1 the rapid convergence on a single dominant design limited the market opportunity for non incremental technical improvements 2 even though the policies implemented were stringent enough to stimulate demand uncertainty in their longevity dampened the incentives for inventions that were likely to take several years to pay off and 3 alternative explanations such as declining r d funding and weakening presidential engagement on energy appear to have been important

the quantity and quality of life and the evolution of world inequality gdp per capita is usually used to proxy for the quality of life of individuals living in different countries welfare is also affected by quantity of life however as represented by longevity this paper incorporates longevity into an overall assessment of the evolution of cross country inequality and shows that it is quantitatively important the absence of reduction in cross country inequality up to the 1990s documented in previous work is in stark contrast to the reduction in inequality after incorporating gains in longevity throughout the post world war ii period health contributed to reduce significantly welfare inequality across countries this paper derives valuation formulas for infra marginal changes in longevity and computes a full growth rate that incorporates the gains in health experienced by 96 countries for the period between 1960 and 2000 incorporating longevity gains changes traditional results countries starting with lower income tended to grow faster than countries starting with higher income we estimate an average yearly growth in full income of 4 1 percent for the poorest 50 percent of countries in 1960 of which 1 7 percentage points are due to health as opposed to a growth of 2 6 percent for the richest 50 percent of countries of which only 0 4 percentage points are due to health additionally we decompose changes in life expectancy into changes attributable to 13 broad groups of causes of death and three age groups we show that mortality from infectious respiratory and digestive diseases congenital perinatal and ill defined conditions mostly concentrated before age 20 and between ages 20 and 50 is responsible for most of the reduction in life expectancy inequality at the same time the recent effect of aids together with reductions in mortality after age 50 due to nervous system senses organs heart and circulatory diseases contributed to increase health inequality across countries

how do competitive pressures affect incentives to innovate when there is a market for inventions competition and intellectual property ip protections are complements in stimulating innovation when ip is appropriable a market for inventions forms and competitive pressures increase incentives to innovate competition among producers the demand side of the market for inventions and competition among inventors the supply side of the market for inventions create incentives to innovate when ip is not fully appropriable markets for inventions are limited and competitive pressures can decrease incentives to innovate firms vertically integrate r d and production and share technology to appropriate the returns to ip this implies that antitrust policy and ip protections are complements

independence of irrelevant alternatives and revealed group preferences it is shown that a pareto optimal and continuous single valued choice function defined on the compact convex subsets of the positive orthant of the n dimensional euclidean space maximizes a real valued function if and only if it satisfies the independence of irrelevant alternatives condition if n 2 and the strong axiom of revealed preference otherwise the results can be applied to consumer demand theory to deal with nonlinear budget sets and to bargaining game theory to generalize the nash bargaining solution

structural transformation and the deterioration of european labor market outcomes this paper examines hours worked in continental europe and the united states from 1956 to 2003 the empirical work establishes two results first hours worked in europe decline by almost 45 percent compared to the united states over this period second this decline is almost entirely accounted for by the fact that europe develops a much smaller market service sector than the united states a simple model of time allocation is used to understand these patterns i find that relative increases in taxes and technological catch up can account for most of the differences between the european and american time allocations over this period

trade openness and child health a heterogeneous panel cointegration analysis in this paper we examine the impact of trade openness on child health based on a cross country panel data set covering 66 countries for the period 1960 2013 to account for the time series proper

pharmaceuticals and the developing world pharmaceuticals have greatly improved health in developing countries but many people in developing countries do not obtain even inexpensive pharmaceuticals and little pharmaceutical r d is oriented toward products needed by developing countries such as a malaria vaccine access to existing products could be improved by facilitating differential pricing for example by subsidizing donation programs and reforming health care delivery r d incentives could be improved if rich countries or international organization committed to purchase needed products when they are developed and make them available to the poor

the overvaluation of purchasing power parity abstract recent panel studies of purchasing power parity have reported strong evidence of mean reversion in real exchange rates however these studies fail to control for cross sectional dependence in the data this failure has dramatic consequences raising the significance level of tests with a nominal size of 5 percent to as much as 50 percent it is shown in this paper that controlling for cross sectional dependence no evidence against the random walk null can be found in panels of up to 64 real exchange rates this finding cannot be attributed to low power as there is ample power in panels of this size to reject the unit root null

european market integration for gas volume flexibility and political risk this is a copy of an article originally published by elsevier in energy economics see http www sciencedirect com science journal 03014215 2002 elsevier science b v

managing innovation optimal incentive contracts for delegated r d with double moral hazard abstract managing innovation involves double moral hazard because the principal delegates r d to a specialized agent and then makes decisions to apply the resulting invention double moral hazard is significant because innovation by the principal implies that the optimal incentive contract satisfies monotonicity conditions the analysis shows that the optimal incentive contract for delegated r d is an option delegated r d with simultaneous sampling results in shirking but delegated r d with sequential sampling attains the efficient outcome the analysis considers a combined problem with simultaneous and sequential search and gives sufficient conditions under which delegated r d attains the first best the discussion also considers delegated r d with stochastic innovation and with stochastic quality of inventions

mortality reductions educational attainment and fertility choice this paper develops a model where reductions in mortality are the main force behind economic development the model generates a pattern of changes similar to the demographic transition where gains in life expectancy at birth are followed by reductions in fertility and increases in the rate of human capital accumulation the onset of the transition is characterized by a critical level of life expectancy at birth which marks the movement of the economy from a malthusian equilibrium to an equilibrium with investments in human capital and the possibility of long run growth

the resource curse a statistical mirage abstract a surprising feature of resource rich economies is slow growth it is often argued that natural resource production impedes development by creating market or institutional failures this paper establishes an alternative explanation a slow growing resource sector a declining resource sector is disproportionately reflected in resource dependent countries additionally there is little evidence that resource dependence impedes growth in non resource sectors more generally this paper illustrates the importance of considering industry composition in cross country growth regressions

exports and labor demand searching for functional structure in multi output multi skill technologies to simplify the representation of a technological relationship between inputs and outputs a production unit s technology must typically satisfy some restrictive conditions some of them being well known in the literature this article presents new results for aggregating labor inputs and outputs in terms of restrictions on elasticities of scale and substitution these conditions are then empirically investigated in a framework that is flexible and does not lose its flexibility after separability being imposed the empirical findings of the exact approach to aggregation are found to be rather pessimistic on the possibility of providing a simplified representation

economic growth population theory and physiology the bearing of long term processes on the this lecture sketches a theory of the secular decline in morbidity and mortality that takes account of changes induced in physiological functioning since 1700 the synergism between technological and physiological improvements has produced a form of human evolution biological though not genetic rapid culturally transmitted and not necessarily stable which is still ongoing in both oecd and developing countries thermodynamic and physiological aspects of economic growth are defined and their impact on growth rates is assessed implications of this theory for population forecasting measurement of national income demand for leisure pension policies and demand for health care are considered excerpt

the quality of innovation and the extent of the market abstract i present a comprehensive model of international trade in technology that considers both the demand for inventions and the supply of inventions on the demand side domestic and foreign firms make strategic technology adoption decisions on the supply side inventors compete to sell licenses for their technology to domestic and foreign firms countries benefit from international trade in technology because they obtain the best invention from a larger pool of inventions international trade in technology increases the extent of the market for inventions and thereby improves the quality of innovation technology trade lowers prices increases outputs and increases the volume of trade in differentiated products when traded products are not close substitutes international markets for technology generate gains from trade the results of the analysis are robust to the possibility of technology transfer either through expropriation or imitation protection of intellectual property rights preserves incentives for entry of inventors and improves the quality of innovation

the political limits to nongovernmental organizations in jordan abstract nongovermental organizations ngos are frequently touted as important actors in democratization yet despite the proliferation of ngos since the advent of political liberalization and democratization in jordan they remain circumscribed by the realities of continued state power because the political transition was informed by a desire to perpetuate regime survival in the midst of economic crisis ngos continue to experience political limits to their activities the regime primarily relies upon three strategies to control the ngo community a administrative repression and oversight b civil society infiltration through royal nongovernmental organizations and other government ngos and c centralization through the general union of voluntary societies

technology trade and growth a unified framework abstract our recent work examines the links among innovation technology trade and growth one strand focuses on research activity technology diffusion and growth the other examines technology and trade in this paper we exploit the common treatment of technology in these two strands to provide a parsimonious model of innovation growth and trade we examine the effect of lower geographic barriers to trade on research and the effects of scale and research productivity on relative incomes

normality of demand in a two goods setting we study the testable implications of normal demand in a two goods setting for a finite dataset on prices and quantities we present the revealed preference conditions for normality of one or both goods our characterization provides an intuitive extension of the well known weak axiom of revealed preference and is easy to use in practice we illustrate the empirical relevance of our theoretical results through an application to the experimental dataset presented in andreoni and miller 2002

government versus private ownership of public goods there has been a dramatic change in the division of responsibility between the state and the private sector for the delivery of public goods and services in recent years with an increasing trend toward contracting out to the private sector and public private partnerships this paper analyzes how ownership matters in public good provision we show that if contracts are incomplete then the ownership of a public good should lie with a party that values the beneets generated by it relatively more this is true regardless of whether this party is also the key investor or other aspects of the technology

non parametric tests of consumer behaviour the neoclassical model of consumer behaviour postulates that a consumer s choice behaviour can be described as deriving from utility maximization subject to a budget constraint one is then naturally led to ask what this model implies about observed behaviour this question has been addressed from two quite distinct approaches the first approach originating in the work of slutsky 1915 and antonelli 1886 derives necessary and sufficient conditions involving the derivatives of the demand functions the second approach originating in the work of samuelson 1938 1947 1948 derives algebraic conditions on the demand functions implied by maximizing behaviour

international medical technology diffusion abstract does medical technology generated in frontier countries have a significant impact on health outcomes in the rest of the world this paper considers a framework where non frontier countries may benefit from medical innovation that is embodied in medical imports or diffuses in the form of ideas using a novel dataset from a cross section of 63 technology importing countries we show that medical technology diffusion is an important contributor to improved health status as measured by life expectancy and mortality rates

the long run relationship between trade and population health evidence from five decades in recent years the increase in international trade has sparked a debate about the impact of international trade on population health to date however there has been very little econometric research on the relationship between these two variables this paper examines the long run relationship between trade openness and population health for a sample of 74 countries over five decades from 1960 to 2010 using panel time series techniques it is shown that international trade in general has a robust positive long run effect on health as measured by life expectancy and infant mortality this effect tends to be greater in countries with lower development levels higher taxes on income profits and capital gains and less restrictive business and labour market regulations

demand systems with and without errors revealed preference theory assumes that each consumer has demands that are rational meaning that they arise from the maximization of his or her own utility function in contrast econometric or statistical demand models assume that each consumer s demands equal a rational systematic component derived from a common utility function plus an individual specific additive error term this paper reconciles these differences by providing necessary and sufficient conditions for rationality of statistical demand models given individual consumer rationality

determinants of innovation the study examines how firm size market structure profitability and growth influence innovative activity in small to medium sized australian manufacturing businesses using the recently released confidentialised unit record file drawn from the business longitudinal survey of the australian bureau of statistics regression analysis is conducted to determine the factors that effect subsequent innovative activity for the full sample of businesses as well as for sub samples of firms from high and low technological opportunity industries most variables including size r d intensity market structure and trade shares are found to be conducive to further innovative activity for the full sample and for high tech firms for low tech industries fewer variables are significant

genuine savings and sustainability genuine savings gs has emerged as the leading economic indicator of sustainable economic development at the country level it derives from the literatures on weak sustainability wealth accounting and national income accounting we discuss the theoretical underpinnings of gs focusing on the relationship between changes in a nation s extended capital stock and the future path of consumption the indicator has entered widespread use propelled by the world bank s publications despite its varying performance as a predictor for future consumption notwithstanding the extensive body of literature reviewed promising future research avenues are identified

the role of the structural transformation in aggregate productivity we investigate the role of sectoral differences in labor productivity in explaining the process of structural transformation the secular reallocation of labor across sectors and the time path of aggregate productivity across countries using a simple model of the structural transformation that is calibrated to the growth experience of the united states we measure sectoral labor productivity differences across countries productivity differences between rich and poor countries are large in agriculture and services and smaller in manufacturing moreover over time productivity gaps have been substantially reduced in agriculture and industry but not nearly as much in services in the model these sectoral productivity patterns generate implications that are broadly consistent with the cross country evidence on the structural transformation aggregate productivity paths and relative prices we show that productivity catch up in industry explains about 50 percent of the gains in aggregate productivity across countries while low relative productivity in services and the lack of catch up explains all the experiences of slowdown stagnation and decline observed across countries

aggregation without separability composite commodity theorems in quantity space abstract in this paper we provide an obvious extension of the composite commodity theorems to the case of inverse demands where quantities and not prices can be used for aggregation first the hicks leontief commodity theorem is extended to the quantity space and then its generalised stochastic version is presented

international mortality modelling an economic perspective abstract a recent literature has developed on modelling mortality in multiple populations together the purpose of this paper is to suggest a reason why mortality in different populations may be related based on an economic literature on technology and knowledge diffusion

aggregation without separability a generalized composite commodity theorem this paper provides general conditions for aggregating commodities without separable utility these conditions impose weaker and more empirically plausible restrictions on price movements than the currently existing alternative to separability the hicks leontief composite commodity theorem the idea is to allow departures from hicks leontief that take the form of well behaved error terms utility functions that permit generalized composite commodity aggregation include the aids model the translog all homothetic utility functions and any utility function when demands are aggregated to two groups of goods implications of empirical nonstationarity of relative prices for aggregation and demand estimation are considered copyright 1996 by american economic association

welfare effects of global patent protection this paper uses a simple model of invention and patent protection to examine the welfare effects of extending patent protection from the country where invention takes place to another country that is only a consumer of invented products it is shown that while the welfare of the inventing country certainly rises with the extension of patent protection that of the other country probably falls and may well fall by more than the increase in welfare of the inventing country in particular as patent protection is extended to a larger and larger portion of the world the effect on the welfare of the world as a whole of extending it to the rest of the world becomes negative

trade liberalization and agricultural chemical use united states and mexico to anticipate the likely effects of recent trade agreements with mexico on the environment and food safety this paper examines changes in agricultural chemical use econometric estimation and simulation suggest that the combined effects of the north american free trade agreement nafta economic growth research investment and farm policy are expected to increase chemical usage substantially in the united states and undoubtedly lead to greater groundwater contamination in mexico the expected effects are a substantial increase in fertilizer use but a decrease in pesticide use increases in private research investment are expected to increase the use of both types of chemicals but increases in public research investment in the united states are not

trips trade and growth a two country model of endogenous growth is employed to assess the importance of intellectual property rights to trade growth and technology transfer the paper provides theoretical results linking the intellectual property rights regime to trade patterns aggregate r d worldwide growth and aggregate welfare measures failure to provide patent protection for foreign made innovations forces innovators to employ less than the best practice research technologies reduces aggregate r d activities worldwide effectively eliminates technology transfer across countries and reduces worldwide growth copyright 1994 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

nonparametric engel curves and revealed preference this paper applies revealed preference theory to the nonparametric statistical analysis of consumer demand knowledge of expansion paths is shown to improve the power of nonparametric tests of revealed preference the tightest bounds on indifference surfaces and welfare measures are derived using an algorithm for which revealed preference conditions are shown to guarantee convergence nonparametric engel curves are used to estimate expansion paths and provide a stochastic structure within which to examine the consistency of household level data and revealed preference theory an application is made to a long time series of repeated cross sections from the family expenditure survey for britain the consistency of these data with revealed preference theory is examined for periods of consistency with revealed preference tight bounds are placed on true cost of living indices

aggregation of data and profit maximization in mexican agriculture nonparametric support for two important hypotheses relevant to econometric model specification is examined results of various nonparametric tests for behavioural objective and aggregation level of mexican agricultural production data are reported the evidence does not refute the hypothesis that producers behave collectively as though they are a price taking profit maximizing firm the empirical results also support exhaustive aggregation of input categories aggregation possibilities among outputs are fewer and are highly sensitive to the rejection criterion

size distortions of tests of the null hypothesis of stationarity evidence and implications for the ppp debate abstract tests of the null hypothesis of stationarity against the unit root alternative play an increasingly important role in empirical work in macroeconomics and in international finance we show that the use of conventional asymptotic critical values for stationarity tests may cause extreme size distortions if the model under the null hypothesis is highly persistent this fact calls into question the use of these tests in empirical work we illustrate the practical importance of this point for tests of long run purchasing power parity ppp under the recent float we show that the common practice of viewing tests of stationarity as complementary to tests of the unit root null will tend to result in contradictions and in spurious rejections of long run ppp while the size distortions may be overcome by the use of finite sample critical values the resulting tests tend to have low power under economically plausible assumptions about the half life of deviations from ppp thus the fact that stationarity is not rejected cannot be interpreted as convincing evidence in favor of mean reversion only in the rare case that stationarity is rejected do size corrected tests shed light on the question of long run ppp

booming sector and de industrialisation in a small open economy this paper presents a theoretical analysis of the dutch disease the phenomenon whereby a boom in one traded goods sector squeezes porfitability in other traded goods sectors both by directly bi

the sale of alcohol in denmark recent developments and dependencies on prices taxes how do prices affect the choice of types of alcohol in denmark we study the danish sale of alcoholic beverages in a time series framework first we look at annual data from 1980 investigating the hypothesis of a fairly stable level of sales we conclude stationarity of sales and we also find that the income elasticity of total sales has been zero second we analyse the composition of the alcohol sale between beer wine and spirits in a multivariate model conditional on the development in prices for this analysis we use johansen cointegration techniques again we test that income can be omitted from the model and we use the model to derive the effects on the composition of alcohol sales of three different sets of changes in the alcohol taxation

the effects of price aggregation bias in systems of demand equations this article illustrates the importance of maintaining consistent levels of aggregation between prices and quantities when estimating consumer demand functions the impact of violating this condition is quantified by using summary performance measures and estimates of demand elasticity biases results derived from an application of 1972 1973 consumer expenditure survey data and supported with a quasi monte carlo experiment consistently indicate that the point estimates of demand elasticities are significantly biased thus the study indicates the importance of developing and maintaining price indexes disaggregated to the same level as the expenditure data in consumer expenditure and budget surveys

optimal fiscal policy and different degrees of access to international capital markets abstract empirically the cyclical pattern of fiscal policy differs between developed and developing countries with in particular much greater pro cyclicality and volatility of public investment in developing countries in this paper i provide a theoretical explanation for the observed differences by analyzing optimal fiscal policy under different degrees of access to world capital markets if the supply of foreign capital is elastic as in a developed country then it is optimal to adjust to an adverse external shock by borrowing from abroad to finance public expenditure and cutting taxes to smooth private consumption if the supply of foreign capital is inelastic however as in a developing country the optimal adjustment policy is to reduce public investment by much more than public consumption and to raise consumption taxes

inequality among world citizens 1820 1992 this paper investigates the distribution of well being among world citizens during the last two centuries the estimates show that inequality of world distribution of income worsened from the beginning of the 19th century to world war ii and after that seems to have stabilized or to have grown more slowly in the early 19th century most inequality was due to differences within countries later it was due to differences between countries inequality in longevity also increased during the 19th century but then was reversed in the second half of the 20th century perhaps mitigating the failure of income inequality to improve in the last decades jel d31 f0 n0 o0

income inequality and technology diffusion evidence from developing countries we study the effect of within country income inequality on the diffusion of mobile phones using data on market penetration in a sample of developing countries from 1985 to 1998 mobile phones are an example of international technology originating in industrialized countries and diffusing worldwide we find that income inequality as measured by the income share of the highest earning deciles has a positive effect on the early diffusion of mobile phones and that the estimated effect becomes greater when a measure of agricultural endowments is used as an instrument the instrumental variable results are robust to weak instruments our findings suggest that the diffusion of new technologies originating from industrialized countries may generate yet another channel that links inequality and development

testing for homogeneity in demand systems when the regressors are nonstationary an implication of optimizing theory is that demand functions are homogeneous of degree zero in prices and nominal income evidence based on estimations of demand systems has repeatedly found this restriction to be rejected by the data however the hypothesis is often formulated in terms of regressors that are non stationary this paper re examines the evidence for homogeneity in light of recent developments in time series econometrics with special emphasis on the treatment of trends we find the demand system to be stochastically but not deterministically cointegrated using techniques developed for estimating cointegrating vectors in the presence of deterministic trends we re estimate the demand system and find that homogeneity holds in many cases

revealed preference analysis of characteristics models characteristics models have been found to be useful in many areas of economics however their empirical implementation tends to rely heavily on functional form assumptions in this paper we develop a revealed preference approach to characteristics models we derive the necessary and su cient empirical conditions under which data on the market behaviour of heterogeneous price taking consumers are nonparametrically consistent with the consumer characteristics model where these conditions hold we show how information may be recovered on individual consumer s marginal valuations of product attributes in some cases marginal valuations are point identi ed and in other cases we can only recover bounds where the conditions fail we highlight the role which the introduction of unobserved product attributes can play in rationalising the data we implement these ideas using consumer panel data on the danish milk market

competition between farmed and wild salmon the japanese salmon market this article examines the japanese market for salmon this market is of interest since it is the largest and most diversified salmon market in the world with wild and farmed species from europe and south and north america competing in the same market in contrast to the european union eu and u s markets there have been neither trade conflicts nor trade restrictions the japanese market can hence provide information about the impact of bringing substantial quantities of a new product into a market and the effect of large scale aquaculture on traditional fisheries in this article market integration between wild and farmed salmon on the japanese market is examined using both bivariate and multivariate cointegration analysis tests for the law of one price are also conducted the results indicate that the species are close substitutes on the market and that the expansion of farmed salmon has resulted in price decreases for all salmon species

democratic governance and sectoral policy reform tracing linkages and exploring synergies abstract effective democratic governance influences how societies and economies progress and prosper for many people in developing and post socialist countries the action and impact of democratic governance happens through sectoral reforms efforts to improve democratic governance can have strong impacts on sectoral reforms how these are implemented who participates in them at various stages and what outcomes are achieved conversely sectoral policy reforms and program interventions can serve to promote and enhance democratic governance this article discusses these linkages and provides selected examples of the synergies among them it raises the political dimension of democratic governance and offers several suggestions regarding where when and how donor agencies can intervene both to promote democratic governance and to advance sectoral policy reforms

political foundations of the resource curse in this paper we argue that the political incentives that resource endowments generate are the key to understanding whether or not they are a curse we show 1 politicians tend to over extract natural resources relative to the efficient extraction path because they discount the future too much and 2 resource booms improve the efficiency of the extraction path however 3 resource booms by raising the value of being in power and by providing politicians with more resources which they can use to influence the outcome of elections increase resource misallocation in the rest of the economy 4 the overall impact of resource booms on the economy depends critically on institutions since these determine the extent to which political incentives map into policy outcomes countries with institutions that promote accountability and state competence will tend to benefit from resource booms since these institutions ameliorate the perverse political incentives that such booms create countries without such institutions however may suffer from a resource curse

hicksian separability does not hold over space implications for the design of household surveys and price questionnaires abstract if relative prices of goods within a commodity group are constant hicksian separability lets the price of a single good represent the group price level this is relied on by price questionnaires used with household surveys in developing countries and when constructing temporal and spatial deflators methods of estimating demand systems from household survey data also rely on hicksian separability yet this restriction remains untested in cross sections we use unique data from vietnam with multiple specifications from within the same food groups to test if within group relative prices are constant over space the data firmly reject these restrictions some guidelines for survey design are discussed in terms of the characteristics of commodity groups that should be disaggregated and those that should have more elementary goods added to their linked price questionnaire

windfalls structural transformation and specialization abstract macro cross country data and micro us county data indicate that resource rich regions have small but relatively productive manufacturing sectors and large but relatively unproductive non manufacturing sectors we suggest a process of specialization to explain these facts windfall revenue induces labor to move from the traded manufacturing to the non traded non manufacturing sector a self selection of workers takes place only those most skilled in manufacturing sector work remain in manufacturing workers that move to non manufacturing however will be less skilled at non manufacturing sector work than those who were already employed there resource induced structural transformation thus results in higher productivity in manufacturing and lower productivity in non manufacturing we construct and calibrate a two sector open economy model of self selection and show that exogenous cross country variation in natural resource endowments is large enough to explain the direction and magnitude of sectoral employment and productivity differences between resource rich and resource poor regions the model implies that low aggregate productivity found in some resource rich countries is not caused by a resource induced decline of a relatively productive manufacturing sector rather the higher manufacturing productivity in those countries is a consequence of manufacturing s smaller size

economic determinants of technological progress in g7 countries a re examination abstract this study examines the relationship between technological change and a series of key macroeconomic variables in g7 countries basically we find that the rate of interest has a negative impact on the pace of innovation while investments in the r d sector high technology exports as well as net fdi inflows enhance technological change the most surprising result of our analysis concerns the openness to trade ratio contrary to theoretical expectations and the findings of previous empirical studies we were unable to find a positive or negative significant relationship between openness to trade and the rate of innovation in this study

the drivers of foreign direct investment into research and development an empirical investigation this paper examines the determinants of foreign direct investment fdi in research and development laboratories by 32 multinational enterprises in the pharmaceutical and electronics industries the paper applies a dichotomous set of motives for fdi results from an econometric analysis of 136 laboratory investments show that relative market size and relative strength of a country s science base determine whether fdi in research and development is carried out in order to exploit existing firm specific advantages or in order to build up new firm specific advantages this holds true in similar form for japanese european and u s firms and across the two industries

bertrand competition when rivals costs are unknown the conclusions of the bertrand model of competition are substantially altered by the presence of asymmetric information about rivals costs asymmetric information eliminates the discontinuity in the bertrand model and significantly alters the properties of the market equilibrium in the bertrand nash equilibrium when rivals costs are unknown firms price above marginal cost and have positive expected profit the analysis is extended to franchise competition the market equilibrium is sensitive to market structure and yields incentives for entry copyright 1995 by blackwell publishing ltd

resource rent in individual quota fisheries traditional fisheries management schemes generate incentives for vessels to maximize catch resulting in rent dissipation and overcapacity individual vessel quota management schemes change the incentives to maximize profit and have the potential to generate resource rent and reduce capacity an interesting question is whether it is the changed incentives due to individual quota or the capacity reduction due to transferability of individual quota that is most important in generating rent in this study a cost function approach is used to model and measure rent generated and potential rent in a fishery managed with individual vessel quotas

the politics of government ngo relations in africa abstract non governmental organizations ngos deservedly or not have gained a reputation as the leading practitioners of rural development in africa african governments have responded ambiguously to the presence of these new agencies on the one hand valuing the economic resources ngos can raise but resisting the political pluralization implied by popular development action this article describes the growth of ngos in africa and proposes a framework for analyzing the dynamics of government ngo relations by means of examples drawn from kenya and zimbabwe among other african countries the article illustrates the strategies used by governments to exercise control and by ngos to assert autonomy an argument is made that politics rather than economics best explain the contribution of ngos to development as well as the attitude of governments toward the burgeoning voluntary sector

boom goes the price giant resource discoveries and real exchange rate appreciation we estimate the effect of giant oil and gas discoveries on bilateral real exchange rates the size and plausibly exogenous timing of such discoveries make them ideal for identifying the effects of an anticipated resource boom on prices we find that a giant discovery with the value of a country s gdp increases the real exchange rate by 14 within 10 years following the discovery the appreciation is nearly exclusively driven by an appreciation of the prices of non tradable goods we show that these empirical results are qualitatively and quantitatively in line with a calibrated model with forward looking behaviour and dutch disease dynamics

women s participation in local organizations conditions and constraints abstract civic organizations have a capacity to contribute to economic growth and an equitable distribution of welfare by reducing information asymmetries and transaction costs while donors increasingly recognize that group based projects are a means to advocate organizational capacities of target groups it is not clear whether group based organizations always increase efficiency and equity this article analyses the determinants of participation in local development groups ldgs using data from two projects funded by undp in kashmir and gtz in chad a major result of the empirical analysis is the identification of a middle class effect of participation the exclusion of the majority of the poor can be explained by high opportunity costs to join the group especially for income earning women in addition it can be shown that an existing social network is a pre condition for participation finally the assumption has been confirmed that bargaining power of the members is important for their decision to participate in groups

returns to investment in education a global update the author updates compilations of rate of return estimates to investment in education published since 1985 and discusses methodological issues surrounding those estimates some key patterns among the three main levels of education primary education continues to exhibit the highest social profitability in all world regions private returns are considerably higher than social returns because of the public subsidization of education the degree of public subsidy increases with the level of education which is regressive social and private returns at all levels generally decline by the level of a country s per capita income overall the returns to female education are higher than those to male education but at individual levels of education the pattern is more mixed the returns to the academic secondary school track are higher than the vocational track since unit cost of vocational education is much higher and the returns for those who work in the private competitive sector of the economy are higher than in the public noncompetitive sector and the returns in the self employment unregulated sector of the economy are higher than in the dependent employment sector controversies in the literature are discussed in the light of the new evidence the undisputable and universal positive correlation between education and earnings can be interpreted in many ways the causation issue on whether education really affects earnings can be answered only with experimental data generated by randomly exposing different people to various amounts of education given the fact that moral and pragmatic considerations prevent the generation of such pure data researchers have to make do with indirect inferences or natural experiments some have been attempted the author looks at the research on overeducation or surplus schooling the conclusions reinforce earlier patterns they confirm that primary education continues to be the number one investment priority in developing countries they also show that educating females is marginally more profitable than educating males that the academic secondary school curriculum is a better investment than the technical vocational tract and that the returns to education obey the same rules as investment in conventional capital that is they decline as investment is expanded