markups aggregation and inventory adjustment in this paper i suggest a unified explanation for two puzzles in the inventory literature first estimates of inventory speeds of adjustment in aggregate data are very small relative to the apparent rapid reaction of stocks to unanticipated variations in sales second estimates of inventory speeds of adjustment in firm level data are significantly higher than in aggregate data the paper develops a multisector model where inventories are held to avoid stockouts and price markups vary along the business cycle the omission of countercyclical markup variations from inventory targets introduces a downward bias in estimates of adjustment speeds obtained from partial adjustment models when the cyclicality of markups differs across sectors this downward bias is shown to be more severe with aggregate rather than firm level data similar results apply not only to inventories but also to labor and prices montercarlo simulations of a calibrated version of the model suggest that these biases are quantitatively significant

the intertemporal stability of the concentration margins relationship using a longitudinal data base we find that there has been a substantial narrowing of the spread between the price cost margins of concentrated and unconcentrated industries including measures of macroeconomic fluctuations into standard price cost margin regressions we find significant differences in cyclical behavior across market structure we also explore a possible explanation unionization for differences in cyclical behavior finally we investigate the degree to which our results are affected by the potential simultaneity of concentration advertising and the price cost margin

oligopoly supergames some empirical evidence on prices and margins this paper is a panel data study on the behavior of prices and margins of oligopolies involved in repeated games the authors examine two supergame models which generate very different predictions about the cyclical behavior of prices and margins evidence on the levels of price cost margins indicates that oligopolies achieve equilibria that more closely resemble a one shot cournot nash outcome than monopoly the authors find however that industries with high price cost margins exhibit cyclical price behavior which is quite different from that of unconcentrated industries little evidence of price wars during either recessions or booms is found copyright 1987 by blackwell publishing ltd

profit margins and the business cycle evidence from uk manufacturing firms this paper presents some empirical models of profitability using panel data covering 709 large u k companies ove r the 1970s and 1980s focusing specifically on the role of aggregate demand shocks in shaping firm level profitability in basic regressi ons and in quite complex econometric models the results suggest that firm level profit margins fell heavily during the deep manufacturing recession of the early 1980s and as such are consistent with model s predicting the procyclical nature of profit margins this result hol ds across different product groups producer goods consumer durables a nd nondurables though the timing of the impact of aggregate shocks appears to differ copyright 1993 by blackwell publishing ltd

pricing strategies in supergames with capacity constraints some evidence from the u s portland cement industry abstract theory demonstrates that demand variations can have nonmonotonic effects on pricing in supergames with capacity constraints furthermore this nonmonotonic relationship can be a function of capacity utilization rates time series data from 25 regional cement markets are used to examine this results empirically no statistically significant relationship is found between demand variations pricing and excess capacity

an efficiency analysis of proposed state and local sales tax reforms 1 introductionstate and local tax policymakers face a large number of particularly severe public finance conundrums 1 one pressing long run issue is the slow but steady erosion of state and local general sales and use tax bases 2 with a few well known exceptions sales taxes are levied primarily on tangible goods 3 most services are untaxed and services have grown as a share of consumption spending 4 thus sales tax bases have declined as shares of total spending 5 at the same time legislators have increased tax rates 6 since consumers tend to substitute away from products whose relative prices have risen higher tax rates tend to exacerbate the problem they are intended to address a number of reforms designed to reduce base erosion have been proposed these include broadening tax bases transforming sales taxes to a consumption base and wholesale replacement of sales taxes with income taxes each proposal has some potential to shore up sales tax bases thus from an economic perspective the policy choice should turn on efficiency equity and simplicity effects very little quantitative information on the efficiency effects of such proposals is available this paper uses computer simulations to examine the efficiency effects of reforms designed to reduce sales tax base erosion 7trends underlying tax base erosion appear to be structural and likely to continue baumol 1967 argues there is a structural tendency for manufacturing productivity growth to exceed productivity growth in services so relative prices of manufactured goods tend to decline 8 if demands for both goods and for services are inelastic the services sector will tend to absorb ever larger fractions of resources and increase in proportion to total value added recent evidence indicates that both taxed commodities mostly tangible goods and untaxed commodities mostly services are price inelastic russo and wei 2004 everything else held constant therefore the relative price decline in manufactured goods tends to reduce their share in total spending supporting a continued shift toward services 9 since older consumers spend relatively large fractions of income on untaxed medical services aging of the population also could contribute to sales tax base erosion as a result of the interstate commerce clause remote vendors often do not collect states general sales taxes if internet sales continue to grow rapidly relative to total purchases e commerce could exacerbate the problem 10 this possibility gains support from goolsbee s empirical work his results indicate relatively large tax elasticities for internet sales goolsbee 2000a to make matters worse tax sensitivity appears to increase over time goolsbee 2000b structural sales tax reform appears unavoidable one possibility is to broaden the sales tax to more services a variation on this theme would transform the sales tax to a true consumption tax a third approach is to replace sales tax revenue with income taxes varian 2000 11 the first and second approaches attempt to shore up the sales tax base so that it adjusts automatically to shifts in the composition of spending and in the location of purchases the third approach reduces erosion by switching the tax base to one that appears less vulnerable to shifting consumption patterns each approach has features that could improve efficiency and features that could reduce it efficiency improvements could result from base broadening which would result in lower tax rates revenue held constant and reducing existing distortions due to disparate tax treatment of goods versus services and brick and mortar versus remote sales however taxing more services could reduce efficiency because firms spend substantial amounts on services fox and murray 1988 due and mikesell 1994

on the incidence and duration of price wars the purpose of this paper is to test some theoretical predictions about the incidence and duration of price wars when these price wars are viewed as an enforcement device to maintain a cooperative or tacitly collusive agreement in an uncertain environment the theoretical model of green and porter i984 and porter i983a predicts that price wars should be triggered by unanticipated demand fluctuations and that they will be more frequent the greater the number of firms in the industry or the greater the degree of market concentration correspondingly the optimal duration of price wars is also affected by the number of firms the tests employ weekly time series data on the joint executive committee railroad cartel henceforth referred to as the jec from i88o to i886 porter i 983b and lee and porter i 984 previously used this data in order to identify periods in which price wars occurred and to test whether pricing behavior in cooperative periods was consistent with predictions of the theoretical model the present paper will look more closely at the price wars themselves in order to test another set of predictions about their incidence and duration section 2 summarizes the theoretical model in more detail with emphasis on markets with price setting firms the models in green and porter i984 and porter i 983a consider quantity setting firms but the railroads in the jec chose prices not quantities the distinction has some bearing on the econometric work but the basic ideas from the theory still apply there is a brief description of thejec and the data set in section 3 empirical results are covered in section 4 and section 5 contains some concluding comments

dynamic competition and price adjustments the link between price rigidity and market structure has long been a topic of interest to researchers in both macroeconomics and industrial organization research on this subject with its antecedents in the widely debated topic of administered inflation has gone through several stages in recent years the focus of research has been on explaining the speed of price adjustment 8 7 11 4 2 3 a parallel line of research has been on the role of entry in disciplining the price behavior of incumbent firms 15 14 5 the current study extends previous work on price adjustment in several important ways most importantly we introduce dynamic elements of competition as measured by several disaggregated measures of domestic and import entry we are able to evaluate the extent to which price effects of entry into u s manufacturing are due to changes in desired prices or to changes in the speed of adjustment to desired prices we depart from previous studies in that we use pooled data to estimate by nonlinear regression methods both the desired target price change and the speed of adjustment across industries

marketing strategies that make entrepreneurial firms recession resistant abstract the recession of 1990 1991 adversely affected nearly every industry in the united states and entrepreneurial manufacturing firms were among those hardest hit by the recession the failure rate among this group by mid year 1991 had risen 37 from the previous year thus recessions pose a serious threat to the survival of entrepreneurial firms understanding how the business cycle influences performance and what strategies are effective in such turbulent times has practical value for managers of entrepreneurial firms in this paper we report a large scale empirical research study involving subjective and financial information from 118 publicly traded u s manufacturing firms the participating firms are involved in technologically demanding and highly innovative industry segments industrial and computer equipment electrical equipment and components and measuring analysis and control instruments none of the firms has achieved a market share of more than one half of one percent we find that in these industries a company s marketing strategies preceding a recession strongly impact the extent of economic downturn on the firm and influence its odds of a timely and complete recovery our specific prescriptions follow first maintain marketing activities in the core business as assurance against recession increasing sales and advertising increasing breadth of production and increasing geographic coverage improve performance during both the peak and the contraction of the business cycle second during the peak period cautiously expand with an emphasis on marketing efficiency increasing the number of channels of distribution and cutting price have a negative effect unless accompanied by sales force performance measurement a simple emphasis on incentives and efficiency alone hurts a firm as a recession hits all of these prescriptions run counter to existing views that suggest that recession simply requires cutbacks and retrenchment recessions seem to be different from other threats to firm viability and marketing activities appear to help pull the firm through a macroeconomic downturn

business cycles and the relationship between concentration and price cost margins using a newly constructed panel data base we examine changes in price cost margins in 284 manufacturing industries between 1958 and 1981 a key finding is a dramatic narrowing of the spread between the margins of concentrated and unconcentrated industries over this period we provide evidence that this narrowing is a result of the greater sensitivity of price cost margins in more concentrated industries to demand fluctuations this finding is robust to the inclusion of other industry variables and to measures of import competition the results indicate that cross sectional estimates of the concentration margins relationship are likely to be both biased and misleading

in pursuit of monopoly power recent quantitative work in industrial economics this paper reviews empirical work in industrial organization devoted to the question of inferring the existence of monopoly power from data on observed market outcomes like profits and prices the discussion covers inter industry work long conventional in the area newer developments in intra industry analysis and case studies and concludes with some remarks on a small but growing body of work assessing market dynamics the wide range of studies reviewed all generally reveal that market power exists in many industries

cross border loss offset can fuel tax competition following recent court rulings cross border loss compensation for multinational firms has become a major policy issue in europe this paper analyzes the effects of introducing a coordinated cross border tax relief in a setting where multinational firms choose the size of a risky investment and host countries non cooperatively choose tax rates we show that coordinated cross border loss compensation may intensify tax competition when following current international practice the parent firm s home country bases the tax rebate for a loss making subsidiary on its own tax rate in equilibrium tax revenue losses may thus be even higher than is implied by the direct effect of the reform in contrast tax competition is mitigated when the home country bases its loss relief on the tax rate in the subsidiary s host country

cooperative equilibria in finite horizon noncooperative supergames abstract it is well known that cooperative outcomes can be supported by noncooperative equilibrium strategy combinations in games that are infinitely repeated however the example of the repeated prisoner s dilemma has led people to conclude that such cooperative outcomes cannot be sustained if the game is repeated finitely often in this paper it is proved that the belief about finitely repeated games is false conditions are given that allow the existence of cooperative outcomes in finitely repeated games that are supported by subgame perfect noncooperative equilibrium strategies

potential foreign competition in us manufacturing abstract trade barriers are falling and firms are competing in increasingly open international markets the data reveal considerable heterogeneity across industries in the intertemporal path of import shares against this backdrop we focus on an issue that is increasingly important for competition policy analysis potential foreign competition inadequate attention to this aspect could result in a biased picture of total competition leading to misguided antitrust decisions drawing on the conceptual framework outlined by landes and posner harvard law review 94 1981 937 we measure potential foreign competition by the intertemporal response of industry import share to industry specific and aggregate economic factors and our estimates indicate wide variation across industries in this dimension a particularly striking finding is that highly concentrated industries which are more likely to be subject to antitrust scrutiny have a greater degree of potential foreign competition than industries with low concentration even though the extent of actual foreign competition is similar across these groups of industries

the response by the norwegian aluminium industry to changing market structure abstract this paper analyses how changes in market structure have affected the margins measured by the lerner index of norwegian aluminium plants instead of showing the expected negative trend due to increased competition internationally the margins are found to move procyclically around a constant that significantly exceeds zero three explanations for this stability in the levels of the margins are identified a better exploitation of scale economies increased productivity and product specialisation which allows norwegian producer prices to increase more rapidly than the international reference price

nash equilibrium and buyer rationing rules experimental evidence i introduction this paper presents the results of laboratory experiments comparing the effect of two buyer rationing rules on capacity constrained duopoly markets bertrand edgeworth games this setting offers an excellent opportunity to compare the stage game nash prediction with other equilibria of a repeated game under otherwise identical conditions the rationing rule generates either a unique pure strategy equilibrium or a unique mixed strategy equilibrium of the stage game further collusive outcomes of the repeated game are supported by a wider range of discount factors for one rationing rule than the other this study presents evidence that the single stage nash equilibrium has predictive power for both rationing rules even in repeated settings this result appears to be robust whether the nash equilibrium is in pure strategies or exists only in mixed strategies in modeling capacity constrained price games the choice of rationing rule is possibly the most arbitrary decision a theorist makes in the literature of single shot bertrand edgeworth games we can find examples of nearly identical models which yield substantively different results due to differences in the rationing rule assumed examples are beckmann s 1965 model and levitan and shubik 1972 allen and hellwig 1986 and vives 1986 and kreps and scheinkman 1983 and davidson and deneckere 1986 laboratory experiments provide an interesting opportunity to examine the empirical consequences of alternative buyer rationing rules knowledge of the type of buyer rationing scheme involved with field data is usually unavailable to a researcher in laboratory experiments the researcher can control the type of buyer rationing rule to be used and compare the effects of alternative rules this study provides a first step toward an empirical understanding of the effects of rationing rules one of the rationing rules that i study the value queue 1 is mathematically more tractable than an alternative the random queue 2 hence the authors are able to generalize the value queue models in other dimensions however the value queue assumption reservation values that comprise demand are ordered from highest to lowest should be viewed as a serious restriction on the applicability of these models section ii relates laboratory and field experiments to single shot bertrand edgeworth nash equilibria section iii describes the development and recent contributions to bertrand edgeworth oligopoly theory and demonstrates the effect of rationing rule assumptions on theoretical predictions i describe the experimental design in section iv and identify the competitive monopoly joint profit maximum and single shot nash predictions additionally qualitative differences predicted by single shot and repeated game nash equilibria are discussed experimental results follow in section v with concluding remarks in section vi ii laboratory and field experiments and the nash equilibrium existing laboratory evidence for capacity constrained price games has been compared to the single shot nash equilibrium only ketchum smith and williams 1984 and kruse rassenti reynolds and smith 1993 provide initial results as to the predictive strength of the single stage nash equilibrium in a laboratory environment ketchum smith and williams compare the prices resulting from four seller plato computer assisted posted offer markets the comparison is between one treatment group in which the competitive equilibrium is also the single stage nash equilibrium and another treatment group in which the competitive equilibrium is not a nash equilibrium they find significantly different market outcomes between the two groups kruse rassenti reynolds and smith 1987 test a four seller constant marginal cost bertrand edgeworth model using a komogorov smirnoff test they reject the hypothesis that the actual price distribution matches the mixed strategy price distribution predicted by the theory

the stability of cigarette demand the relative effects of various governmental interventions upon cigarette consumption is important to policy makers historically the demand for cigarettes has been quite unstable previous studie

investment and conditional uncertainty the role of market power irreversibility and returns to scale abstract market power irreversibility and returns to scale decisively determine how uncertainty affects investment we empirically show that this relationship is positive when deviations from the neoclassical paradigm are absent as frictions are introduced the positive sign gradually dies out and turns negative

the comparative statics of changes in risk revisited abstract in this paper we consider the problem of determining the conditions under which a change in risk increases the optimal value of a decision variable for all risk averse agents for a large class of payoff functions we obtain the least constraining necessary and sufficient condition on the change in risk for signing its effect without any additional restriction on the utility function than risk aversion it entails all existing sufficient conditions as particular cases our results are applied to the linear model which describes the standard portfolio problem the necessary and sufficient condition for unambiguous comparative statics in this class of problems is termed greater central riskiness cr it is shown that cr dominance is neither stronger nor weaker than second degree stochastic dominance journal of economic literature classification number d81

the no loss offset provision and the attitude towards risk of a risk neutral firm abstract this paper examines how discrete tax brackets induce an otherwise risk neutral firm to behave in a very specific risk averse manner we show how the firm s investment decisions relate to various factors such as other firm revenue tax rates tax exemption levels and project risk in particular such a firm is shown to exhibit first order risk aversion with a possible zero demand for a risky investment even when the expected excess return is positive firm behavior displays risk aversion that is in some sense increasing in firm profits at low profit levels and decreasing at high profit levels

asymmetric information and the new theory of the firm financial constraints and risk behavior this paper summarizes recent developments in the theory of the firm that have arisen in examining the implications of imperfect information it shows that a wide range of these models have similar implications for the likely reaction of firms to external environmental and policy changes two significant implications are 1 that firms behave as if they are risk averse individuals maximizing a utility function of terminal wealth profitability even when the risks involved are unsystematic and 2 in many circumstances because this utility function is likely to be characterized by decreasing absolute risk aversion firms are likely to respond significantly and positively to changes in cash flow and profitability together these two phenomena are able to account for a wide range of firm behaviors that have been empirically observed both formally and informally and that are difficult to explain in terms of the traditional theory of the firm furthermore the responses of such firms to policy interventions are likely to differ significantly from those of neoclassical firms this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

risk aversion and willingness to pay for energy efficient systems in rental apartments abstract this paper uses a random utility model to estimate consumers valuation of energy efficient insulation and ventilation systems in rental apartments given consumers limited experience in residential buildings and the perceived uncertainty about their comfort benefits and resulting energy savings these relatively new technologies might be undervalued by risk averse consumers using the concept of certainty equivalence this paper proposes a model to assess the consumers risk aversion for adopting energy efficient systems these systems are treated as risky assets while conventional commodities are assumed to be risk free the curvature of the utility function is interpreted as a measure of aversion to perceived risks as opposed to explicit risks measured by observed variances the proposed formulation is applicable in stated preference data with qualitative variables the model is applied to data from a choice experiment conducted among 264 apartment tenants in switzerland the estimated curvatures reject the risk neutrality hypothesis the range of the estimated risk premiums suggests that risk considerations remain a central issue in dealing with energy efficiency in residential buildings the analysis also indicates that assuming same risk attitudes toward new and conventional systems could bias the estimates of the willingness to pay especially when the system is comprised of several components

do oligopolists earn noncompetitive rates of return high in effect is defined in this proposition in either of two ways most commonly it has been taken to mean high enough to warrant remedial intervention of some sort by the state 4 recently however a growing minority of economists has urged that it be taken to mean instead high enough to warrant intervention provided the state can show that rates of return in excess of r1 reflect collusive behavior by the leading firms and not cost advantages which these firms have over their leading rivals both meanings in turn reflect a third high enough to imply a typical market price closer to pm in figure lb than to pc where pm is the price that would prevail if the leading firms maximized collective current period profits and pc is the price that would prevail if collective current period profits approximated zero 6 proposition 1 rests on a large body of empirical work proposition 2 however does not nor does it rest on any theoretical analysis industrial economists simply have intuited that there is a correspondence between the r1r2 segment in figure la and the pmp segment in figure lb are there substantive grounds for the intuition i argue that there are not the rates of return that lie along the r1r2 segment are competitive