occupational self selection a human capital approach to sex differences in occupational structure a rich and diverse literature exists concerning the distribution of labor incomes one approach namely that of human capital concentrates on lifetime accumulation paths of earnings capacity units human capital individual variations in human capital imply differences in earnings power thereby yielding strong implications concerning earnings distribution within a population despite its explanatory power the human capital model has been widely criticized one criticism centers on its inability to obtain inferences concerning occupational distribution the purpose of this paper is to alleviate at least some such criticism by applying the hedonic price approach so as to embed occupational choice into the human capital framework the significance is that neoclassical economic theory can be used to obtain implications concerning the determinants of occupational structure excerpt

interrupted work careers depreciation and restoration of human capital the quantitative effects and even the existence of a human capital depreciation phenomenon have been a subject of controversy in the recent literature prior work however was largely cross sectional and the longitudinal dimension if any was retrospective using longitudinal panel data on married women in nls we have now established that real wages at reentry are indeed lower than at the point of labor force withdrawal and the decline in wages is greater the longer the interruption another striking finding is a relatively rapid growth in wages after the return to work this rapid growth appears to reflect the restoration or repair of previously eroded human capital the phenomenon of depreciation and restoration is also visible in data for immigrants to the united states however while immigrants eventually catch up with and often surpass natives returnees from the nonmarket do not fully restore their earnings potential

a longitudinal analysis of white women s wages according to human capital theory women s work participation decisions will strongly affect their wages and wage growth we test human capital predictions about how labor force withdrawals both past and prospective part time work experience and working in male rather than in female jobs affect wages and wage growth for white women we do this by estimating a wage change model for the years 1967 1979 for a national sample of white women we find that wages drop immediately following withdrawals but that this is followed by a rapid wage growth so that the net loss in wages from dropping out of the labor force is small we further find that wage growth is not significantly lower in female than in male jobs but that part time work experience does not lead to significant wage growth in either male or female jobs

time off at what price the effects of career interruptions on earnings using the national longitudinal survey of youth 1979 the author explores how nonemployment spells and career expectations affected men s and women s wages wage profiles were affected by total non

small states small problems income growth and volatility in small states abstract small states have attracted a large amount of research in this paper we test whether small states are any different from other states in terms of their income growth and volatility outcomes we find that controlling for location small states have higher per capita gdp than other states this income advantage is largely due to a productivity advantage constituting evidence against the idea that small states suffer from an inability to exploit increasing returns to scale small states also do not have different per capita growth rates than other states small states do have greater volatility of annual growth rates which is in part due to their greater volatility of terms of trade shocks this terms of trade based volatility is in turn due to small states greater openness their greater openness on balance has however a positive net payoff for growth the one differential policy measure that might be relevant for small states is to further open up to international capital markets in order to better diversify risk but the benefits of even that are still unresolved in the literature we conclude that small states are no different from large states and so should receive the same policy advice that large states do

a dynamic model of differential human capital and criminal activity this paper presents a dynamic model of criminal activity individuals are endowed with legal and criminal human capital potential incomes in legal and criminal sectors depend on the level of the relevant human capital the rate of return and random shocks human capital can be enhanced by participating in both sectors legal human capital can also be enhanced through investment human capital is subject to depreciation individuals maximize expected discounted lifetime utility which depends on consumption the model allows analyses of the effects of recessions imprisonment rehabilitation scenarios sanctions and returns to human capital new insights such as hysteresis in criminal behaviour are obtained

an index of relative deprivation abstract this paper proposes an index of relative deprivation which unlike the earlier indices assumes that the deprivation of a person is sensitive to income transfers among those who are richer than him the proposed index is quite flexible in accomodating value judgements on the degree of envy felt by individuals in the society

early career work experience and gender wage differentials we estimate a wage model that includes an array of variables measuring the fraction of time worked during each year of the career this array fully characterizes past employment experience regardless of how sporadic it has been our model yields substantially higher estimated returns to experience and lower returns to tenure than do models that measure experience cumulatively and use the standard quadratic functional form we find that the data reject the standard model but fail to reject our model furthermore we find that 12 of the male female wage gap is due to differences in the timing of work experience

arming as a strategic investment in a cooperative equilibrium to develop a positive economic theory of military spending this analysis focuses on a game theoretic general equilibrium model of international conflict in which consumption peaceful investment and military spending are endogenously determined the analysis illustrates that when there is repeated interaction between nations a game of threats and punishments generally will not support a disarmament outcome and that fluctuations in military spending can be an endogenous result of fluctuations in aggregate economic activity furthermore the analysis shows how the relation between aggregate economic activity and military spending qualitatively depends on whether governments are acting opportunistically or cooperatively copyright 1990 by american economic association

terrorist attacks analyst sentiment and earnings forecasts we examine whether exogenous and extremely negative events such as terrorist attacks and mass shootings influence the sentiment and forecasts of sell side equity analysts we find that analysts w

time varying rare disaster risks oil returns and volatility abstract this paper provides a novel perspective to the predictive ability of rare disaster risks for west texas intermediate wti oil market returns and volatility using a nonparametric quantile based methodology over the monthly period of 1918 01 2013 12 we show that a nonlinear relationship and structural breaks exists between oil returns and various rare disaster risks hence linear granger causality tests are misspecified and the linear model results of non predictability are unreliable however the quantile causality test shows that rare disaster risks strongly affect both wti returns and volatility with stronger evidence of predictability observed at lower quantiles of the respective conditional distributions our results are robust to alternative specification of volatility based on a garch model and measure of rare disaster risks based on the number of crises

exploring the dynamics between terrorism and anti terror spending theory and uk evidence abstract recent years have seen governments restricting civic freedoms and legislating significant increases in spending to combat terrorist activities in this paper we investigate the relationship between anti terror spending and terrorism in line with previous findings in the empirical literature on terrorist activity our game theoretic model of the interaction between a benevolent government and a terrorist organization is suggestive of a non linear relation between terrorism and counter terrorism spending using uk data our empirical markov switching implementation provides evidence in favor of this approach the empirical results also show that the probability of transiting into a state with high terror is smaller if defense spending is high

the gap between male and female pay in the spanish tourism industry abstract this paper analyzes wage differentials between male and female workers in the spanish tourism industry using a large administratively matched employer employee data set obtained from a representative sample of companies this allows us to control for unobserved firm specific factors likely to affect the magnitude of the gender wage gap our findings indicate that male workers earn on average 6 7 higher monthly wages than their socially comparable female counterparts in particular the type of contract held the qualifications required for the job and the specific sub sector of employment are very important variables in explaining this gender wage difference we also find that only around 12 of the mean wage difference in the tourism industry cannot be explained by differences in observable characteristics which is well below the average for the rest of the industries in spain 87 our interpretation is that minimum wage legislation provides a particularly effective protection to women in the tourism industry which is characterized by a large number of low wage earners

psychological bias and gender wage gap basing our work on the literature on psychology that highlights differences in confidence levels between men and women we provide a rationale for the simultaneous existence of the two dimensions of the gender wage gap i on average men earn more than women and ii the difference in wages depends on the gender structure we also argue that although an equal compensation policy does not eliminate the gender wage gap it nonetheless increases social welfare finally endogenizing the choice of task by agents we show how women in a vast majority can self select on low paying jobs

terrorism and the invisible hook this article investigates and compares the root causes of transnational terrorism and piracy in order to accomplish this we construct a novel data set that catalogues terrorist activity and piracy over the years 1992 2008 paying particular attention to the arabian sea and indian ocean since 1991 these data are then merged with other information detailing the economic political and security posture of each organization during the same period so that we can examine the relationship between economic prosperity security terrorism and piracy the main conclusion is that terrorism is mostly unrelated to economic conditions while piracy responds to both economic payoffs and military deterrents

a new data set measuring income inequality this article presents a new data set on inequality in the distribution of income the authors explain the criteria they applied in selecting data on gini coefficients and on individual quintile groups income shares comparison of the new data set with existing compilations reveals that the data assembled here represent an improvement in quality and a significant expansion in coverage although differences in the definition of the underlying data might still affect inter temporal and international comparability based on this new data set the authors do not find a systematic link between growth and changes in aggregate inequality they do find a strong positive relationship between growth and reduction of poverty

war politics an economic rational voter framework the frequency of foreign conflict initiations in the united states is found to be significantly greater following the onset of recessions during a president s first term than in other periods the authors develop an economic theory of the political use of wars which links the election cycle war decisions and economic performance consistent with the observed relationships among these events an incumbent leader with an unfavorable economic performance record may initiate a war to force the learning of his war leadership abilities and thus salvage with some probability his reelection this obtains despite voter rationality and informational symmetry copyright 1995 by american economic association

the inadvertent consequences of al qaeda news coverage abstract this paper explores the consequences of al qaeda news coverage related to i subsequent al qaeda attacks ii the group s popularity and iii radicalization i construct a daily index of al qaeda news coverage in the us from cnn nbc cbs fox news the nyt and the wapo to isolate causality i employ an instrumental variable strategy based on disaster deaths everything else equal the us media reports less on al qaeda when more people are dying from disasters worldwide at its mean al qaeda coverage is suggested to cause 0 2 0 3 attacks per day in the upcoming 1 4 weeks i find no evidence that attacks are merely rescheduled because of diminished media exposure rather the total number of attacks increases with coverage this effect is driven by easy to plan attack types and by al qaeda attacks in iraq results are robust to an array of alternative specifications and consistent when considering news coverage on al jazeera al qaeda coverage also increases the group s online popularity and search topics that are potentially indicative of radicalization such as jihad and al qaeda s magazine inspire are receiving more attention on google nevertheless these results should be interpreted carefully as it remains difficult to fully disentangle online interest in al qaeda and sympathy with the group s mission

how much does violence tax trade abstract we investigate the empirical effect of violence as compared to other trade impediments on trade flows our analysis is based on a panel data set with annual observations on 177 countries from 1968 to 1999 which brings together information from the rose data set the iterate data set for terrorist events and data sets of external and internal conflict we explore these data with traditional and theoretical gravity models we calculate that for a given country year the presence of terrorism together with internal and external conflict is equivalent to as much as a 30 tariff on trade this is larger than estimated tariff equivalent costs of border and language barriers and tariff equivalent reduction through generalized systems of preference and wto participation

war and democracy we present a general equilibrium model of conflict to investigate whether the prevalence of democracy is sufficient to foster the perpetual peace hypothesized by immanuel kant and whether the world would necessarily become more peaceful as more countries adopt democratic institutions our exploration suggests that neither hypothesis is true the desire of incumbent leaders with unfavorable economic performance to hold on to power generates an incentive to initiate conflict and salvage their position with some probability an equilibrium with positive war frequency is sustained even if all nations were to adopt representative democratic institutions and even in the absence of an appropriative motive for war

inequality among the kibbutzim using a new longitudinal data set we examine the distribution of well being and changes in the distribution of well being among the israeli kibbutzim in 1989 and 1990 we examine the theoretical and practical implications of a variety of definitions of consumption income and wealth of each kibbutz although in many cases the mean value of the relevant income or wealth concept is negative we show that inequality change is ambiguous and welfare is decreasing moreover those kibbutzim with the lowest net worth experienced the greatest deterioration of their net worth recipients although it is quite common to find income distribution studies that deal with the problem of comparing the income and wealth of economic units containing several individuals such as families and households we focus here upon the economic status of a much larger economic unit the israeli kibbutz this topic is of special interest to income distribution analysts since from its inception the kibbutz movement has been associated with an explicitly egalit arian ethic and it presents particularly interesting problems from the point of view of interpretation in terms of applied welfare economics a further reason for special interest in inequality among the kibbutzim is to be found in the considerable economic and social changes that they have recently undergone although the kibbutzim used to be considered one of the economic successes of israel it is no longer clear that this is so and it is possible that the changed economic and social circumstances have impacted unfavourably on the distribu tion of income among the kibbutzim we present a preliminary view of the distribution of economic status among the kibbutzim in the years 1989 and 1990 using a unique consistent data source that enables us to estimate measures of consumption income and wealth for each kibbutz we show that although the picture of inequality change is ambiguous over 1989 90 the gini coefficient rose for consumption and fell for income inequality of wealth fell there is a consistent picture of deteriorating economic status according to standard economic welfare criteria that take into account distributional issues the generalized lorenz curve we are able to offer some insight as to whether success breeds success within the kibbutz movement the data set that has permitted this analysis is an immediate by product of the recent economic and social changes experienced by the kib butzim and it is important to understand the nature of these changes the economic factors behind the recent crisis are primarily associated with accumulated debt the implicit trust placed in the kibbutz movements2 by

relative deprivation in the kibbutz economy an exploration of the concepts of equality and equity this study explores the equity characteristics of the ideal kibbutz economy which maintains an equal distribution of income or the egalitarian principle in general it was found that the equity claim of the kibbutz is upheld both within the distribution of income framework and within varian s problem of distributive and productive justice however this is not necessarily true within the more complicated homans s problem where relative deprivation may exist affecting equity and efficiency in the kibbutz copyright 1996 by the london school of economics and political science

the effect interruptions in work experience have on wages individuals who interrupt their employment are generally expected to pay a price in the workplace 15 most researchers acknowledge that wages rise more rapidly with time spent in paid employment than with time spent in other noneducational activities thus the wages received by individuals reentering employment are expected to be below those obtained by similar individuals with continuous work records how far below is still a matter of debate one important line of research has focused upon the difference between pre interruption and post interruption wages specifically do real wages rise fall or remain unchanged during periods of nonemployment two findings stand out from past research first a wide variety of studies employing a wide variety of data sets have found that wages fall during periods of nonemployment the estimated decline ranges from 0 6 to over 5 annually but averages around 2 second this estimated depreciation rate is higher when the sample under investigation contains a greater proportion of recent reentrants thus there is a pattern to the estimates the purpose of this study is to investigate the observed sensitivity to sample composition in the past such sample sensitivity has been attributed to a rapid depreciation followed by a rebound in wages that over time partially offsets the initial decline if true the depreciation rate will be underestimated especially if the data include few recent reentrants two alternative hypotheses are tested in this study the first relies upon certain assumptions regarding part time employment patterns and wages if part time workers are paid less than full time workers and if part time employment is more common following reentry because it is used as a bridge to full time employment then estimates of the depreciation rate will be biased upward particularly when obtained from samples of recent reentrants if information on hours worked is ignored there may in fact be no depreciation at all results indicate that while part time workers are paid less than full time workers estimates

the limits of equality insights from the israeli kibbutz what limits the capacity of society to redistribute what determines the structure of compensation in organizations striving for income equality this paper addresses these questions by investigating the economic and sociological forces underlying the persistence of the israeli kibbutzim communities based on the principle of income equality to do this i exploit newly assembled data on kibbutzim and a financial crisis in the late 1980s that affected them differentially the main findings are that 1 productive individuals are the most likely to exit and a kibbutz s wealth serves as a lock in device that increases the value of staying 2 higher wealth reduces exit and supports a high degree of income equality and 3 ideology facilitates income equality using a simple model i show that these findings are consistent with a view of the kibbutz as providing optimal insurance when members have the option of leaving more generally these findings contribute to an understanding of how mobility limits redistribution and to an understanding of the determinants of the sharing rule in other types of organizations such as professional partnerships cooperatives and labor managed firms

relative deprivation and economic welfare abstract it is shown that the theory of relative deprivation can be decomposed into two concepts deprivation and its relativity deprivation is interpreted as forgone utility due to lack of commodities thus minimizing deprivation and maximizing utility come to much the same thing the relativity of the concept stems from the existence of reference groups in the society the core of the paper deals with the effect of reference groups on the deprivation felt in the society

male female wage differentials in job ladders much of the male female wage differential exists because men and women are assigned to different jobs within narrow job categories there is no male female differential only a tortured taste theory of discrimination can reconcile these facts we argue that differential movement along job ladders entails comparative advantage so the ability standard for promotion is higher for women this implies that more able women will be passed over in favor of less able men women assumed to have the same ability distribution as men earn less the differential reflects females lower promotion probability not within job discrimination

inequality and growth why differential fertility matters we argue that inequality and growth are linked through differential fertility and the accumulation of human capital we build an overlapping generations model in which dynasties differ in their initial endowment with human capital growth the income distribution and fertility are endogenous due to a quantiy quality tradeoff families with less human capital decide to have more children and invest less in education when initial inequality is high large fertility differentials lower the growth rate of average human capital since poor families who invest little in education make up a large fraction of the population in the next generation a calibrated model shows that this fertility differential effect is quantitatively important we also provide empirical evidence to confirm the links between inequality differential fertility and growth suggested by the model

on the number and size of nations this paper studies the equilibrium determination of the number of countries in different political regimes and in different economic environments with more or less economic integration we focus on the trade off between the benefits of large jurisdictions and the costs of heterogeneity of large and diverse populations our model implies that i democratization leads to secessions ii in equilibrium one generally observes an inefficiently large number of countries iii the equilibrium number of countries is increasing in the amount of economic integration

the macroeconomic consequences of terrorism abstract we perform an empirical investigation of the macroeconomic consequences of international terrorism and interactions with alternative forms of collective violence our analysis is based on a rich unbalanced panel data set with annual observations on 177 countries from 1968 to 2000 which brings together information from the penn world table data set the iterate data set for terrorist events and data sets of external and internal conflict we explore these data with cross sectional and panel growth regression analysis and a structural var model we find that on average the incidence of terrorism may have an economically significant negative effect on growth albeit one that is considerably smaller and less persistent than that associated with either external wars or internal conflict as well terrorism is associated with a redirection of economic activity away from investment spending and towards government spending however our investigation also suggests important differences both regarding the incidence and the economic consequences of terrorism among different sets of countries in oecd economies in particular terrorist incidents are considerably more frequent than in other nations but the negative influence of these incidents on growth is smaller

welfare losses due to low employment rates an exploratory analysis for the netherlands this article aims at measuring the individual and national welfare losses due to low employment rates the calculations are made from a microeconomic point of view and based on assumptions of the human capital theory welfare losses are measured as the hypothetical loss of production resulting from one additional year of interruption or postponement of the working career depreciation of human capital due to non use in the interruption period and foregone experience are taken into account the welfare losses are estimated for individual cases with specific characteristics with respect to age educational level and length of interruption spell and multiplication factors are used to calculate the national welfare losses

another day another dollar enterprise resilience under terrorism in developing countries this study extends the literature on entrepreneurship in developing countries by offering a two stage explanation for the paradoxical observation that enterprise activities often flourish under extreme adversity our findings complement the base of pyramid and peace through commerce attention to the growing role of business in international development by fleshing out the functions of enterprise resilience under terrorism we first explain how terrorism conditions outbreak escalation and reduction may create psychological incentives for enterprise resilience then we show that controlling for ex ante terrorism conditions enterprise resilience yields more favorable economic payoffs at higher levels of terrorism especially for informal entrepreneurs

the economics of counterterrorism a survey we provide a review of theoretical and empirical contributions on the economic analysis of terrorism and counterterrorism we argue that simple rational choice models of terrorist behavior in the form of cost benefit models already provide a well founded theoretical framework for the study of terrorism and counterterrorism we also hint at their limitations which relate to the failure of accounting for the dynamics between terrorism and counterterrorism that may produce unintended second order effects as well as for the costs associated with counterterrorism and its international dimension we reevaluate previously proposed counterterrorism strategies accordingly finally in the light of our findings we discuss interesting areas of future research

economic conditions elections and the magnitude of foreign conflicts abstract this paper investigates the relationship between the business cycle the election cycle and the timing and magnitude of foreign conflict we propose a theoretical model which suggests that in the presence of a reelection motive the frequency of war will be greater following recessions than otherwise however if partially benevolent leaders can influence the size of conflicts then the consequences may be limited to conflicts of relatively small magnitude we test the predictions of the theory using data for the united states for the cold war period and obtain results consistent with the theory when leaders are partially benevolent

international terrorism causes consequences and cures a popular view is that international terrorism is on the increase that it is religiously motivated and that it has important adverse consequences this paper investigates this view it examines the empirical evidence on the causes of international terrorism from the late 1960s to the early 2000s and discovers that while religion has had a part to play explanations based on economics and politics appear to be consistent with the facts terrorists come from relatively poor and undemocratic countries and commit attacks in relatively rich and democratic ones the paper then examines the micro macro and global economic effects of international terrorism from both a theoretical and empirical angle and discovers that the negative effect on domestic aggregate demand is temporary and the effect on aggregate supply insignificant finally the paper explores policies to deal with international terrorism and demonstrates that this is complex analogies with conventional crime may be unhelpful

do we punish high income criminals too heavily many critics believe that since high income criminals can afford to purchase better legal services they are less severely punished than poor criminals who commit equivalent crimes others are concerned that the penalties imposed on criminals are too small this paper shows that ignoring the effect conviction has on later earnings dramatically underestimates the total monetary penalty paid by those convicted and that the penalty structure is extremely progressive where evidence on the probability of conviction is available it shows that the highest income criminals face the highest expected penalties