inflation and relative price variability in the euro area evidence from a panel threshold model the impact of inflation on relative price variability rpv generates an important channel for real effects of inflation this article provides first evidence on the empirical relation between inflation and rpv in the euro area stirred by the widespread use of inflation caps or target bands in monetary policy practice we are particularly interested in threshold effects of inflation in line with the predictions of monetary search models our results indicate that expected inflation significantly increases rpv only if inflation is either very low below 0 95 per annum p a or very high above 4 96 p a

nonmonetary effects of financial crises abstract this paper empirically examines the nonmonetary effects of financial crises it exploits the special nature of the great depression in canada to test propositions linking financial structure and aggregate economic activity canada s large domestic debt and shrinking banking system had little impact on the course of the depression in comparison with results for the united states this implicates bank failures as a prime factor in the real effects of financial crises

risk sharing by households within and across regions and industries abstract cochrane 1991 journal of political economy 99 957 976 and mace 1991 journal of political economy 99 928 956 test if risk sharing across households is complete in the sense that household consumption moves one for one with aggregate consumption in their studies the source of income risk is idiosyncratic and agents can share risk across the entire economy using a sample of households from the panel study on income dynamics psid we explore whether households share the risk associated with their industries and regions across households in other regions and industries we find that a large fraction of risk faced by households is not shared across regions and industries

evidence on the cross country transmission of monetary shocks the international transmission of monetary shocks between the us and canada is explored focusing on real variables such as consumption investment employment and the bilateral trade balance along with measures of us and canadian money the empirical analysis examines the impact of a monetary shock in one country on real activity in both countries the long run analysis provides evidence of cointegration among the variables and suggests that money plays an important role in the equilibrium relationships between the two countries variance decompositions and impulse response functions reveal interesting avenues of real transmission in the short run the short run analysis provides strong evidence that us monetary shocks affect real activity in both the usa and canada the analysis also indicates that canadian monetary disturbances affect canadian and us real activity and that many of these effects are similar in magnitude to the effects of us monetary shocks the importance of the nominal exchange rate

contract length monetary policy and exchange rate variability abstract this paper investigates the dependence of exchange rate variability on average contract length in the goods market when changes in the money supply are the driving force for movements in the exchange rate it is shown that in general an increase in average contract length will increase the volatility of the exchange rate we then discuss how changes in the money supply process affect average contract length besides providing an explanation for changes in the conditional variance of the exchange rate our results are interesting in the light of the changes in monetary control procedures implemented by the federal reserve board in october 1979 and the consequent increase in exchange rate volatility

inflation inflation uncertainty and relative price dispersion evidence from bivariate garch m models abstract one potential real effect of inflation is its influence on the dispersion of relative prices in the economy menu cost models generally imply that higher trend inflation will increase price dispersion in contrast signal extraction models predict that increased inflation uncertainty will raise relative price dispersion existing empirical studies do not distinguish between these separate hypotheses we constuct a bivariate garch m model of inflation and relative price dispersion to test these differing explanations in a single model and find that inflation uncertainty dominates trend inflation as a predictor of relative price dispersion

regional pay the public private sector pay differential abstractregional pay the public private sector pay differential regional studies this paper extends the debate on making public sector wages more responsive to those in the private sector the way in which the public private sector wage differential is calculated dramatically alters conclusions and far from there being substantial regional disparity in wages offered to public sector workers any differences are predominantly concentrated in london and the south east where public sector workers are significantly disadvantaged relative to private sector workers this has implications for staff recruitment and retention such findings question the need for regional market facing pay but highlight the necessity to revisit the london weighting offered to public sector workers

are some groups more vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks than others hypothesis tests based on panel data from peru abstract which socio economic groups are most vulnerable to welfare declines during a macroeconomic shock after clarifying the difference between poverty and vulnerability this paper presents an analytical framework and applies it to panel data from peru major findings are 1 households with better educated heads are less vulnerable 2 female headed households are no more vulnerable than male headed households 3 households with more children are more vulnerable 4 transfer networks that assist the poor in relatively stable periods do not protect them during a major shock unless they originate from outside peru and 5 peru s social security program is targeted neither to vulnerable nor to poor households but other transfer programs are better targeted

sources of employment fluctuations in taiwan s industries and regions this empirical study explores the sources of employment fluctuations in taiwan s industries and regions over the period 1978 to 2004 the quarterly growth rates of employment in nine industries and four regions are modelled with a structural vector autoregression var and the employment shocks are measured by var residuals the covariance matrix of the var residuals is decomposed using system estimation method that selects the parameters to make the error model close to the covariance matrix and in turn to estimate the relative importance of national as well as industry specific and region specific shocks the empirical results show that industry specific shocks account for the major fluctuations in industries and regions on average about 83 95 of an industry s cyclical variations and 56 28 of the volatility in a region may be attributed to industry specific shocks national shocks account for little employment volatility in industries only the finance and personal service industries are highly s

on the granger causality between median inflation and price dispersion the granger causal relationship between the size and dispersion of fluctuations in sub components of the us consumer price index cpi is examined using both in sample and out of sample tests and data from january 1968 to december 2008 strong in sample evidence is found for feedback between median inflation and price dispersion the evidence for granger causation from median inflation to price dispersion remains strong in out of sample testing but is less strong for granger causation in the opposite direction the implications of these results for the variety of price level determination models in the literature are discussed

the wage curve in russia 1995 2005 abstract this study draws on data collected for russia to investigate the existence of a wage curve over the period 1995 2005 when wage levels are expressed in u s dollars we find a highly significant negative wage elasticity coefficient close to 0 1

inflation and relative price variability new evidence for the united states this article provides new evidence on the empirical relationship between inflation and relative prices in the united states in line with the predictions of recent monetary search models we find that the impact of expected inflation on relative price variability rpv has disappeared during the recent period when inflation expectations have been stabilized on a low level endogenous break point tests are applied to identify the timing and to confirm the significance of the changing role of inflation for rpv the empirical findings are robust with respect to different price indices disaggregation levels and measurement concepts

vulnerability to poverty an empirical comparison of alternative measures this article compares empirically the several measures of individual vulnerability to poverty proposed in the literature in order to understand which is the best signal of poverty that can be used for policy purposes to this aim the receiver operating characteristic roc curve the pearson and spearman correlation coefficients are used as precision criteria the results show that two groups of indexes can be identified high and low performers and among the former that proposed by dutta et al 2011 is the most precise

risk sharing and public transfers we use public transfers in the form of food aid to test for the presence of risk sharing arrangements at the village level in rural ethiopia we reject perfect risk sharing but find evidence of partial risk sharing via transfers there is also evidence consistent with crowding out of informal insurance linked to food aid programmes

the near optimality of mark up pricing mark up pricing policies result in a loss of profits compared to marginal pricing behavior these losses however are often very small even for large changes in the money supply but by adopting a simple pricing rule the firm does not have to forecast the future and avoids the informational and computational costs required to determine the profit maximizing price each period thus even if these costs are small mark up pricing policies may be optimal or approximately so at least for some firms in a macro model this is likely to imply large monetary non neutralities

state dependent pricing inflation and welfare in search economies abstract we investigate the welfare effects of inflation in economies with search frictions and menu costs we first analyze an economy where there is no transaction demand for money balances money is a mere unit of account we determine a condition under which strictly positive inflation is desirable we relate this condition to a standard efficiency condition for search economies second we consider a related economy in which there is a transaction role for money in the absence of menu costs the friedman rule is optimal in the presence of menu costs the optimal inflation rate is negative for our numerical examples provided menu costs are small a deviation from the friedman rule can be optimal depending on the extent of the search externalities

impact of financial crises on poverty in developing world an empirical approach in this paper we adopt a cross country perspective to analyze the short term effects of currency banking and debt crises on poverty we employ multivariate fixed effects panel data analysis in order to examine whether and to what extent different types of financial crises impact the poverty headcount ratio and the poverty gap as measured by the world bank our findings suggest that out of the three categories of financial crises we identify it is currency crises that most significantly exacerbate both the incidence and depth of poverty in the short run we find evidence that banking crises are associated with an increase in the depth of poverty but not the incidence however this effect tends to be short lived while our analysis shows no direct effect of sovereign debt crises on short term poverty

sectoral shifts and cyclical unemployment a substantial fraction of cyclical unemployment is better characterized as fluctuations of the frictional or natural rate than as deviations from some relatively stable natural rate shifts of employment demand between sectors of the economy necessitate continuous labor reallocation since it takes time for workers to find new jobs some unemployment is unavoidable this paper presents evidence that most of the unemployment fluctuations of the seventies unlike those in the sixties were induced by unusual structural shifts within the u s economy simple time series models of layoffs and unemployment are constructed that include a measure of structural shifts within the labor market these models are estimated and a derived natural rate series is constructed

the impact of us economic variables on bank of canada policy direct and indirect responses abstract the impact of us economic variables on canadian monetary policy is assessed using quarterly data for 1963 88 canadian monetary base growth is regressed upon the least squares predictors of 11 us and canadian variables using a generalized least squares procedure that permits isolation of i direct responses by the monetary authority to its expectations of the us variables and ii indirect responses to past us influences that impact upon the current fitted values of the canadian variables the results reveal significance of both direct and indirect us influences on canadian policy across fixed and floating exchange rate regimes

sectoral variability and the foundations of optimal inflation rate abstractthe recent monetary search models argue that the real effects of inflation on economic activity can be gauged through relative price variability rpv our study uses a large panel data of

the second theorem of the second best abstract this paper interprets many results from the literature on incentive compatibility and cost benefit analysis as illustrations of a second theorem of the second best the theorem states that if there exists any restriction on transactions required for first best efficiency then there is no presumption that a social welfare maximum entails equal marginal social utilities of income across individuals one reason is that incentive constraints shift with redistributions of wealth so that redistributions have an instrumental role in relaxing constraints that make the economy second best two examples relate such wealth effects to countervailing incentives and hostage taking

output and welfare effects of inflation with costly price and quantity adjustments there exists by now a burgeoning literature concerned with the consequences of a fixed cost of price adjustment due to this cost a monopolistic firm does not necessarily adjust its price even though the current price deviates from the price that would maximize the firm s current profit as a result the production generally differs from what it would be in the absence of a menu cost with the effect of inflation on the average output and welfare under monopolistic competition being ambiguous and depending in a complicated way on the profit and demand functions 1 however one strong result holds unambiguously for all profit and demand functions at low inflation rates the average output and welfare are above their levels at full price stability where firms charge the static monopoly price 2 the driving force is that discounting makes a firm more concerned with its real profits earlier in a period with a constant nominal price than with its real profits later in the period in fact as the inflation rate approaches zero the firm s initial real price converges to the profit maximizing real price while the terminal real price converges to a smaller real price at low inflation rates therefore a firm s price is most of the time below the price that would maximize the current profit since output and welfare under monopolistic competition are inversely related to price average output and welfare are higher than under full price stability the inevitable conclusion is that the economy benefits from a little bit of inflation a critical assumption underlying this result is that firms can continuously adjust their production to satisfy demand so while the menu cost literature explicitly assumes that there is a small fixed cost incurred at each price adjustment it also implicitly assumes that it is costless to continuously adjust the quantity of output 3 this is however a questionable assumption there is some empirical evidence indicating the existence of a cost of quantity adjustment part of which is fixed in that it does not depend on the size of the adjustment 4 the cost of quantity adjustment stems from the need to rearrange and reorganize the factor inputs for the new level of production and includes managerial time and effort a fixed cost of quantity adjustment rules out any continuous adjustment of the production to satisfy the increasing demand that results from a decreasing real price within a period with a constant nominal price under the reasonable assumption that the menu cost does not exceed the fixed cost of quantity adjustment 5 in an inflationary environment a firm chooses to adjust its nomi

other people s money cash in advance microfoundations for optimal currency areas abstract in the traditional theory of optimal currency areas there are potential gains for stabilization policy with an independent exchange rate and money because rigidity of prices causes an inadequate response of relative prices to shocks recent empirical work using modern extensions of the mundell fleming model based on nominal contracts has supported this view this paper examines whether there is support for it in a classical representative agent model of linked open economies and finds that there is the result comes from the cash in advance constraint under which the household faces an inevitable delay between working receiving cash and being able to spend the proceeds this delay is the cash in advance analogue of the nominal price rigidity in the optimal currency area models

russian poverty muddling through economic transition with garden plots abstract household level analysis based on a comprehensive survey in three regions of russia sheds some light on new dimensions of poverty an important aspect of households responses to economic stress in the transition economy is home gardening and subsistence agriculture in urban and rural areas subsistence agriculture plays an important role in real income and food consumption of the middle income strata the income poor also tend to have poor plots and gardens household labor force distance to plots and opportunity costs of time are the main determinants of the level of labor allocation to household agriculture while on average marginal returns to labor in household plots are about 0 50 us day they are not different from zero for the poor agriculture policy neglects this sector which now provides almost 40 of russia s agricultural output

inflation price dispersion and market integration through the lens of a monetary search model monetary search theory implies that the real effects of inflation via its impact on price dispersion depend on the level of search costs and thus on the level of market integration for less integrated markets the inflation price dispersion nexus is predicted to be asymmetrically v shaped which results in an optimal inflation rate above zero for highly integrated markets with low search costs however the impact of inflation on price dispersion should only be small using price data of the european union member states this paper is the first that tests and confirms these predictions of monetary search theory

output effects of inflation with fixed price and quantity adjustment costs i introduction there is convincing evidence that fixed costs of price adjustment may be large levy et al 1997 found such costs to be 0 7 of a firm s revenue and zbaracki et al 2004 found them to be 1 22 in the presence of fixed costs of price adjustment a monopolistic firm does not adjust its nominal price continuously with the result that the real price and output generally deviate from their static monopoly level at low inflation rates the average output is higher than the static monopoly output if there is positive discounting danziger 1988 and depends on higher order derivatives of the profit and demand functions if there is no discounting benabou and konieczny 1994 1 most of the literature assumes that only price adjustments are costly while output can be continuously adjusted without cost however bresnahan and ramey 1994 document that there may be large fixed costs of quantity adjustments relatedly many publications show that adjusting labor and capital inputs involves significant fixed costs 2 such costs may derive from loss of organizational capital baily et al 2001 jovanovic and rousseau 2001 as well as from job protection rules severance pay and legal and administrative complications in a framework with both price and quantity adjustment costs andersen 1995 and andersen and toulemonde 2004 demonstrate that only intermediate size shock but not large or small shocks may affect output for a constant inflation rate danziger 2001 shows that a firm s permanent production decreases with inflation at low inflation rates if discounting is positive and danziger and kreiner 2002 that output capacity decreases with inflation if the elasticity of demand is constant and there is no discounting see also danziger 2003 the purpose of this article is to provide a simple general characterization of the output effects of a constant inflation rate if both price and quantity adjustments involve fixed costs it is assumed that quantity adjustments are at least as costly as price adjustments which implies that a firm s production is held constant at a permanent level 3 each firm then keeps its nominal price unchanged in periods of equal length and the nominal price is adjusted so that the initial real price is the same in each period thus a firm s optimal strategy consists of the initial real price the duration of the periods with unchanged nominal price and the permanent level of production the article shows that in the absence of discounting the effect of inflation on the aggregate production depends on how fast firms marginal real revenue decreases with demand and that this effect is fully determined by the elasticity of the marginal real revenue with respect to demand thus aggregate production decreases with inflation if the elasticity of the marginal real revenue always exceeds minus unity increases with inflation if the elasticity of the marginal real revenue is always less than minus unity and is invariant to inflation if the elasticity of the marginal real revenue always equals minus unity several studies have found that the comovement between output and prices is typically negative in the long run cooley and ohanian 1991 den haan 2000 den haan and sumner 2004 fiorito and kollintzas 1994 within the framework of the present model the negative comovement indicates that the empirically relevant situation is when the elasticity of the marginal real revenue always exceeds minus unity this will be the case among others if demand functions exhibit a constant price elasticity less than minus unity as assumed in danziger and kreiner 2002 ii the model consider an economy with a unit continuum of identical consumers and a unit continuum of monopolistic firms producing differentiated perishable products each firm and its product are indexed by i which is uniformly distributed on 0 1

the great divide ruralisation of poverty in russia using data from the russian longitudinal monitoring survey for the period 2000 2004 we investigate poverty trends in russia we find that urban poverty declines at twice the rate of rural poverty so that by 2004 poverty in russia had become a largely rural phenomenon for the first time since transition began this finding does not stem from changing population characteristics or shares is not dependent on the use of a particular poverty line nor is it driven by the rapid expansions that have occurred in moscow st petersburg or other urban areas our findings flesh out those of ravallion and colleagues who in contrast to other regions find signs of a ruralisation of poverty in eastern europe and the former soviet union we attribute some of the differential to the labour market

the distribution of income shocks during crises an application of quantile analysis to mexico 1992 95 moving beyond the simple comparisons of averages typical of most analyses of household income shocks this article employs quantile analysis to generate a complete distribution of such shocks by type of household during the 1995 crisis in mexico it compares the distributions across normal and crisis periods to see whether observed differences were due to the crisis or are intrinsic to the household types alternatively it asks whether the distribution of shocks during normal periods was a reasonable predictor of vulnerability to income shocks during crises it finds large differences in the distribution of shocks by household types both before and during the crisis but little change in their relative positions during the crisis the impact appears to have been spread fairly evenly households headed by people with less education poor single mothers or people working in the informal sector do not appear to experience disproportionate income drops either in normal times or during crises

the international transmission of economic fluctuations abstract this paper suggests that for a wide class of international real business cycle models including models with imperfect competition the traditional channels of international transmission of business cycles through world interest rate and terms of trade variations cannot explain the cyclical response of the canadian economy to innovations in u s output empirically testable quantitative models of the effects on canadian economic activity of shocks to the u s economy are developed and their empirical relevance is tested by comparing impulse responses estimated from vector autoregressions to the quantitative predictions of the theoretical models

risk sharing from international factor income explaining cross country differences access to world capital markets and net investment income flows between countries help protect national income from country specific output shocks i empirically study what factors explain cross country differences in the extent of risk sharing from international factor income an index of investor protection is the leading causal variable for the estimated amount of risk sharing over the 1985 to 2004 period improving investor protection in russia to denmark s level implies five times larger risk sharing compared to the sample average these results indicate one possible way to reap large potential benefits from international risk sharing

is work special justice and the distribution of employment i investigate from an egalitarian welfarist standpoint the issue of whether state guaranteed employment should be offered as a matter of right to able bodied poor citizens who suffer chronic or persistent unemployment an affirmative answer is defended one consideration supporting this right to work is that provision of transfer aid in the form of jobs rather than cash screens nonneedy bohemians from the class of beneficiaries the main conclusion of the essay is defended from one objection based on efficiency wage models of the labor market and from another based on the alleged impossibility of maintaining the self respect and self esteem of able bodied individuals who fail to earn their own keep independently in a market economy

on inflation and real price variability this paper studies the consequences of costly price adjustments for the variability of real prices accompanying inflation for constant elasticity demand and cost of production it is shown that a higher demand a lower cost of production or a lower cost of price adjustment leads to less intertemporal variability of real prices if the marginal cost of production does not increase too fast then the average real price is less than the real price that would prevail in the absence of inflation additionally a higher demand a lower cost of production or a lower cost of price adjustment leads to a higher level of real prices

macroeconometric modelling and pakistan s economy a vector autoregression approach abstract recent applications of the vector autoregression var technique pioneered by sims litterman and doan has become popular in macroeconomic modelling particularly when knowledge about true structural relations is absent this study represents the first attempt to apply such a technique to pakistani data for ten key macroeconomic variables unlike some of the earlier studies on pakistan s economy our empirical results are intuitive and consistent with the predictions of the standard new neoclassical model more importantly based on these results perhaps one may also shed light on some of the dominant recurring macroeconomic issues of pakistan s economy

international transmission of us macroeconomic policy and the inflation record of western europe abstract the interaction between monetary policy government budget deficits and inflation is examined for the four largest western european economies comprising france italy the united kingdom and west germany in order to assess the possible impact of us macroeconomic policy past us monetary base growth deficits and inflation rates are included in the set of explanatory variables for each of the european countries empirical results for the 1962 2 1985 4 sample period reveal interplay between domestic monetary and fiscal policy to be augmented by a significant impact of the us variables across all four countries in the sample

search in the product market and the real business cycle empirical evidence suggests that most firms operate in imperfectly competitivemarkets we develop a search matching model between wholesalers and retailers firms face search costs and form long term relationships price bargain results in both wholesaler and retailer markups depending on firms relative bargaining power we simulate the model to explore the role of product market search frictions in business cycles we show that the way search costs are modelled is crucial to provide a realistic picture of firms business environment and improve the cyclical properties of an otherwise standard real business cycle model

mode locking and international business cycle transmission abstract we investigate international business cycle synchronization business cycles in many countries have a tendency to synchronize with one another in what appears to be a world business cycle yet researchers find that trade and capital linkages are not strong enough for one country to drive business cycles in another country how is this world business cycle formed this study suggests that the world business cycle results from a mode locking phenomenon a nonlinear process by which weak coupling between oscillating systems tends to synchronize oscillations in the systems simulations and econometric analyses are performed to attempt to verify this hypothesis

risk and insurance in village india comment the protection of poor households in high risk agrarian economies from shocks to their incomes has often been seen as a compelling motive for various forms of policy intervention including transfers of cash or food credit subsidies and public employment schemes for a survey see lipton and ravallion 1995 the desirability of such safety net policies clearly depends on how well pre existing risk sharing arrangements work while it is commonly thought that without effective policy intervention rural households are vulnerable to village wide shocks such as adverse prices or poor rains it is less clear to what extent risk sharing institutions within the village mitigate the effects of idiosyncratic income risk stemming for instance from ill health or localized crop damage 2 several recent papers have used household level data to implement tests of risk sharing that might inform such concerns 3 these tests are based on the proposition that with perfect risk sharing consumption at the household level should be insured against idiosyncratic risks and thus depend solely on the realization of the aggregate risk wilson 1968 diamond 1967 townsend 1994 tests this implication of perfect intra village risk sharing using longitudinal household data on consumptions and incomes for three villages in india he reports that the full insurance hypothesis provides a surprisingly good benchmark in that household consumptions co move and do not appear to be much influenced by contemporaneous own income our aim here is to examine the robustness of this potentially important finding we have two main concerns the first is that the specification townsend adopts potentially biases his test towards the null hypothesis of full insurance because it yields inconsistent estimates of the key test parameter under a plausible alternative we therefore estimate a different specification that generates consistent estimates under both the null and the alternative our second concern is that a particular form of measurement error in the consumption data townsend uses may have further biased his results toward the null hypothesis of full insurance to address this concern we use an instrumental variables procedure when we implement the test of consumption insurance with townsend s consumption data we also re estimate the test equations with a measure of consumption derived from the same underlying primary data by an alternate method finally townsend reports 1discussions with robert townsend stimulated our interest in this investigation the staff of the

innovation accounting for the impact of fluctuations in u s variables on the canadian economy innovation accounting is conducted on a nine variable vector autoregression estimated using u s and canadian monthly data for january 1971 to december 1983 this reveals inter alia a positive impact of the u s interest rate on the canadian rate with the role the exchange rate plays in cushioning this impact being clearly apparent a positive effect of the u s money supply on both u s and canadian interest rates a positive albeit muted response of canadian production to a shock in u s production and a persistent influence of u s prices on production negatively and prices positively in canada are also detected l impact des fluctuations dans les variables americaines sur l eonomie canadienne une analyse utilisant la technique d innovation accounting les auteurs utilisent la technique d innovation accounting dans le cadre d un systeme a neuf variables estime comme autoregression vectorielle a l aide de donnees mensuelles canadiennes et americaines couvrant la periode de janvier 1971 a decembre 1983 cette analyse revl un effet positif de la masse monetaire americaine a la fois sur les taux d interet canadiens et americains une reaction positive mais en sourdine du niveau de production au canada a un choc dans le niveau de production americaine et une influence persistence des niveaux de prix americains sur le niveau de production au canada influence negative ainsi que sur les niveaux de prix canadiens influence positive we should like to thank gordon anderson douglas clarke john kennan john kuszczak angelo melino and stanely winer for a number of helpful discussions earlier versions of the paper were presented at the meetings of the canadian economics association in vancouver in june 1983 at the winter meetings of the econometric society in san francisco in december 1983 and in a session of invited papers at the meetings of the canadian economics association in guelph in june 1984 our discussants jacques raynauld in vancouver thomas doan and stephen king in san francisco and allan gregory in guelph offered many useful comments as too did the members of the money macro workshop at the university of western ontario alan harrison also thanks the economics department at the university of warwick for its hospitality and the social science and humanities research council of canada for financial support canadian journal of economics revue canadienne d economique xviii no 4 november novembre 1985 printed in canada imprime au canada 0008 4085 85 784 98 1 50 canadian economics association this content downloaded from 40 77 167 14 on fri 16 sep 2016 06 02 12 utc all use subject to http about jstor org terms impact of fluctuations in us variables 785

money real interest rates and output a reinterpretation of postwar u s data this paper reexamines both monthly and quarterly u s postwar data to investigate if the observed comovements between money real interestrates prices and output are compatible with the money real interest output link suggested by existing monetary theories of output which include both keynesian and equilibrium models the major empirical findings are these 1 in both monthly and quarterly data we cannot reject the hypothesis that the ex ante real rate is exogenous or granger causally prior in the context of a four variable system which contains money prices nominal interest rates and industrial production 2 in quarterly data there is significantly more information con tained in either the levels of expected inflation or the innovationof this variable for predicting future output given current and lagged output than in any other variable examined money actualinflation nominal interest rates or ex ante real rates the effect of an inflation innovation on future output is unambiguously negative the first result casts strong doubt on the empirical importance of existing monetary theories of output which imply that money should have a causal role on the ex ante real rates the second result would appear incompatible with most demand driven models of output in light of these results we propose an alternative structural model which can account for the major dynamic interactions among the variables this model has two central features i output is unaffected by money supply and ii the money supply process is motivated by short run price stability this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

synchronization of price changes by multiproduct firms evidence from canadian newspaper prices abstract using data for canadian daily newspapers we find that price changes of papers owned by the same firm are synchronized on the other hand independently owned newspapers do not appear to change their prices together

thanks for nothing not for profits and motivated agents we re examine the labor donation theory of not for profits and show that these organizations may exist not necessarily because motivated workers prefer to work in them or that they dominate for profits in terms of welfare but because the excess supply of motivated workers makes the non profit form more attractive to managers we show that if firms had to compete for motivated workers then not for profit firms would be competed out by for profit firms therefore in the choice between not for profit and for profit provision other than incentive problems the distribution of rents between management and workers and consequently the relative scarcity of motivated workers may play an important role

on relative price variability and hyperinflation abstract during the chinese hyperinflation 1946 1 1949 4 both anticipated inflation were found to influence relative price variability positively the non neutral effect of anticipated inflation rejects the conventional lucas island model while lending empirical support to the price adjustment cost theory

canadian regional cycles the quebec ontario case revisited canadian economists have devoted some attention to the study of regional cycles in the quebec ontario case the wid ening hypothesis has emerged as the empirical consensus this hypot hesis states that the gap between the two regional economies increase s in a recessionary period this paper reexamines this question using recent data and bayesian vector autoregression models the results o btained monthly data on total employment 1966 84 do not support th e prevailing position a u s recession rapidly and strongly affects the ontario economy while the impact on quebec is much weaker conseq uently a recession narrows the gap between the two provinces

the g7 business cycle in a globalized world abstract using a factor structural var for 14 countries out of the g20 group we document that output innovations originating outside the g7 account for shares of 10 to almost 25 percent in the business cycle fluctuations of g7 gdp growth using auxiliary regressions we additionally find that these innovations contribute noticeably relative to g7 output innovations to short term fluctuations in important other national g7 variables such as employment the current account balance inflation and inflation volatility and in global macroeconomic indicators like the oil price world stock market returns and exchange rate volatility the results indicate that in a globalized world spillovers from emerging markets and industrial countries other than the g7 play a relevant role for major aspects of the g7 and world business cycle

shift share designs theory and inference we study inference in shift share regression designs such as when a regional outcome is regressed on a weighted average of sectoral shocks using regional sector shares as weights we conduct a placebo exercise in which we estimate the effect of a shift share regressor constructed with randomly generated sectoral shocks on actual labor market outcomes across u s commuting zones tests based on commonly used standard errors with 5 nominal significance level reject the null of no effect in up to 55 of the placebo samples we use a stylized economic model to show that this overrejection problem arises because regression residuals are correlated across regions with similar sectoral shares independent of their geographic location we derive novel inference methods that are valid under arbitrary cross regional correlation in the regression residuals we show using popular applications of shift share designs that our methods may lead to substantially wider confidence intervals in practice

international interdependence and business cycle transmission between turkey and the european union 1 introduction because of globalization and the asian financial crisis interest in the international linkages and economic comovements between different regions of the world has recently heightened one economic relationship of particular interest is the relationship between turkey and its european neighbors this relationship is important because of turkey s european orientation and because of turkey s long held ambition of joining the european union eu in view of this situation we examine the linkages and comovements of outputs prices interest rates and money supplies between turkey and europe the main question we address here is do the turkish and european economies move together through time that is are their business cycles synchronized three related questions are how or why does this synchronization or comovement take place is there any evidence of business cycle transmission between the european economies and turkey have these comovement relationships changed over time to address these questions we gathered statistics on macroeconomic variables trade linkages capital flows and historical economic events for most of the analysis germany turkey s largest trading partner is used as a proxy for the eu nations because of the limited period of availability of the quarterly data we examine the relationship using both annual and quarterly data using annual data for 1956 1998 and quarterly data for a shorter period from the first quarter of 1981 through the fourth quarter of 1998 we calculate correlations between macroeconomic variables for turkey and germany and perform principal components analysis tests of cointegration and granger causality and a structured vector autoregression svar impulse response analysis using the method of bernanke 1986 and sims 1986 the synchronization issue is investigated through the use of the graphs correlations and principal components analysis the transmission issue is investigated through the use of the granger causality tests and svar impulse response analysis our results show that the business cycle patterns of turkey and europe are quite different indeed in some cases they appear to be almost 180 out of phase in many cases the correlations between the real growth rate of turkey and those of the eu countries are statistically insignificant principal components analysis reveals a large difference between fluctuations in turkey and those in the eu countries associated regressions also show a surprisingly insignificant relationship between the real gdp growth rates for turkey and the eu and between those for turkey and germany however the svar impulse response analysis reveals a modest positive transmission from germany to turkey our conclusion is that although turkey and europe will obviously both benefit from participation in a free trade relationship with each other see harrison rutherford and tarr 1997 because of the absence of synchronization between turkey and the eu it appears that turkey would incur serious stabilization costs if it were to participate in the european monetary union in addition to the transaction benefits of participating in an optimal currency area there are economic stability losses incurred by a country joining an optimal currency area economic costs arise because a country joining an optimal currency area loses its ability to implement an independent exchange rate and monetary policy for income and unemployment stabilization see krugman and obstfeld 2000 hence countries out of sync with the rest of the countries in the group will be continuously affected by inappropriate monetary policy turkish business cycle fluctuations do not display the similarity with european business fluctuations that would make it beneficial for turkey to be a part of the european monetary union at this time 1 on the other hand dissimilarity in business cycles might make it profitable for european investors to invest in turkey for purposes of diversification

international transmission of aggregate shocks under fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes united kingdom france and germany 1959 to 1985 abstract this paper analyzes the transmission of aggregate shocks between the usa and three major european economies the uk france and germany under fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes using time series techniques short run linkages are investigated in the context of vector autoregression models while long run relations are analyzed by testing for cointegration empirical findings indicate that flexible exchange rates have not in general completely insulated domestic economies from foreign shocks and that the degree of insulation and interdependence across exchange rate regimes and over the long and short runs differs substantially across the european countries

optimal price setting with observation and menu costs we study the price setting problem of a firm in the presence of both observation and menu costs in this problem the firm optimally decides when to collect costly information on the adequacy of its price an activity which we refer to as a price review upon each review the firm chooses whether to adjust its price subject to a menu cost and when to conduct the next price review this behavior is consistent with recent survey evidence documenting that firms revise prices infrequently and that only a few price revisions yield a price adjustment the goal of the paper is to study how the firm s choices map into several observable statistics depending on the level and relative magnitude of the observation vs the menu cost the observable statistics are the frequency of price reviews the frequency of price adjustments the size distribution of price adjustments and the shape of the hazard rate of price adjustments we provide an analytical characterization of the firm s decisions and a mapping from the structural parameters to the observable statistics we compare these statistics with the ones obtained for the models with only one type of cost the predictions of the model can with suitable data be used to quantify the importance of the menu cost vs the information cost we also consider a version of the model where several price adjustment are allowed between observations a form of price plans or indexation we find that no indexation is optimal for small inflation rates

modelling inflation shifts and persistence in tunisia perspectives from an evolutionary spectral approach this article examines the dynamic characteristics of the inflation rate in tunisia over the last two decades and particularly following the onset of the arab spring in 2010 which causes distortions in this country s monetary policy we focus on the two specific dimensions of the tunisian inflation rate inflation regimes and persistence we tackle this issue by adopting an evolutionary spectral approach initially proposed by priestley and tong 1973 our main findings indicate a stable inflation regime in the last 10 years with an average inflation rate of around 5 5 it is also found that the tunisian inflation experienced a high degree of inertia which reflects its gradual responses to shocks we also discuss the policy implications of these results which typically require policy makers to implement sound institutional reforms to reduce inflation

relative price and inflation variability in a simple consumer search model there is a large empirical literature on the effect of aggregate inflation on both price level dispersion relative price variability rpv and inflation rate dispersion relative inflation variability riv across goods or locations early empirical work of riv has an explicit theoretical foundation in signal extraction models however recent empirical work on rpv has produced results inconsistent with signal extraction models in particular while riv is increasing in the absolute value of inflation shocks rpv is a negative monotonic function of inflation shocks we show that consumer search theory offers a potential explanation for these apparently contradictory observations

how strong is co movement in employment over the business cycle evidence from state sector data abstract this study measures the extent of co movement in employment across states and sectors at business cycle frequencies the strength of co movement is quantified using the cohesion measure developed by croux forni and reichlin rev econ statist 83 2001 232 the data indicate that cohesion is generally positive for the state sector pairs although the distributions mass around relatively low values the results suggest that cohesion has risen over time and that cohesion increases with spatial aggregation evidence reveals that the measured degree of co movement is sensitive to the chosen periodicity of the data and that there is much greater cohesion across states for a given sector than across different sectors within a state an investigation into the sources of cross state variation in cohesion reveals that important determinants include the share of state employment in manufacturing the different effects of monetary policy actions on each state s employment and the degree of sectoral diversity within a state

shocks and their consequences across and within households in rural zimbabwe abstract increasing attention is now being paid to poverty dynamics in developing countries this work links the extent to which households smooth consumption or smooth assets given income shocks the empirical evidence on the churning of households in and out of poverty and the possibility that temporary shocks can have permanent consequences using longitudinal data from rural zimbabwe this paper extends the discussion of these issues by disaggregating the impact of shocks by levels of asset holdings by disaggregating the impact of shocks on individual level welfare and by assessing the extent to which such shocks have permanent consequences by doing so it assesses the validity of distinguishing between asset and consumption smoothing and provides insights into whether poverty dynamics assessed at the household level provide an adequate picture of dynamics at the individual level

sectoral shocks and metropolitan employment growth abstract in this paper we study the sources of industry employment growth in each of five metropolitan statistical areas msas the objective is to understand the relative importance of aggregate disturbances versus local sectoral shocks in generating observed employment fluctuations at the msa level the empirical evidence presented in this paper derives from structural vector autoregressions svars estimated for each of the five msas estimations use monthly employment data covering nine one digit industrial categories for the period 1951 1 1999 8 as well as two variables that capture the influences of aggregate i e national shocks on msas we find that within msa industry shocks explain considerably more of the forecast error variance in industry employment growth than do aggregate shocks sectoral shocks account for between 87 and 94 of the 36 month ahead forecast error variance among individual local sectors shocks to msa specific government manufacturing and service sector employment growth are the predominate sources of variability

consumption smoothing and vulnerability in russia applying bootstrapped quantile regression to the russian longitudinal monitoring survey rlms data we examine the channels through which individuals experience and seek to cope with changes in consumption we find that married individuals living in small households with educated heads in urban areas are better equipped to smooth consumption investigating the impact of idiosyncratic shocks we find that the labour market is an important transmission mechanism allowing households to smooth their consumption but also exposing them to risk mainly through job loss outside of pension payments the formal social safety net does not facilitate consumption smoothing thus heightening the importance of informal coping institutions it transpires that both support from relatives friends and home production act as important insurance mechanisms for the most vulnerable

inflation and relative price variability abstract theoretical explanations of the inflation relative price variability relationship are often observationally equivalent this paper compares two theoretical models menu costs and imperfect information the microfoundations of the models are used to generate new testable differences between the theories

when faced with income and asset shocks do poor rural households in vietnam smooth food consumption or assets abstractvietnamese rural households are exposed to severe covariate and idiosyncratic shocks however these households are remarkably resilient and have steadily increased real income and consumption over the survey period 2006 to 2012 to explain household strategies to cope with shocks we test three theoretical models the permanent income hypothesis pih complete market hypothesis cmh and asset smoothing theory ast there is support for ast as households smooth productive assets rather than consumption and for cmh as households smooth consumption against idiosyncratic but not covariate shocks there is no support for pih

a new look at variation in employment growth in canada the role of industry provincial national and external factors we examine fluctuations in employment growth using canadian data from 1976 to 2010 we consider a wide range of models and examine the sensitivity of our findings to modelling assumptions the results from our most preferred model which we selected using the bayesian information criteria indicate that most of the variance in employment growth that is not due to the idiosyncratic error comes from domestic sources with most of this coming from industry and provincial factors overall we find that external and national factors play a much smaller role in employment fluctuations than in earlier research we provide some possible explanations for these differences and discuss the implications of our findings for public policy and theory

sectoral shifts and aggregate unemployment additional empirical evidence 1990 sectoral shifts and aggregate unemployment additional empirical evidence applied economics vol 22 no 3 pp 331 346

real business cycles in this paper we demonstrate how certain very ordinary economic principles lead maximizing individuals to choose consumption production plans that display many of the characteristics commonly associated with business cycles our explanation is entirely consistent with i rational expectations ii complete current information iii stable preferences iv no technological change v no long lived commodities vi no frictions or adjustment costs vii no government viii no money and ix no serial dependence in the stochastic elements of the environment we also provide a completely worked out example of the type of artificial economy we have in mind the time series properties of the example exhibit some major features of observed business cycles although this type of model may not be capable of explaining all of the regularities in actual business cycles we believe that it provides a useful well defined benchmark for assessing the relative importance of factors e g monetary disturbances

identifying the common component of international economic fluctuations a new approach in this paper we develop an aggregation procedure using time varying weights for constructing the common component of international economic fluctuations the methodology for deriving time varying weights is based on some stylised features of the data documented in the paper the model allows for a unified treatment of cyclical and seasonal fluctuations and also accommodates the dynamic propagation of shocks across countries we find evidence for a world business cycle as well as evidence for a distinct european common component we also find some evidence that macroeconomic fluctuations have become more closely linked across industrial economies in the period after 1973 the world economy has become more closely integrated in recent years due to increasing trade and financial flows across countries this has spurred interest in the question of how the ongoing phenomenon of globalisation has affected the transmission and propagation of business cycle fluctuations across national borders an important question in this context is whether a substantial fraction of economic fluctuations are country specific or if there exists a world business cycle which might be defined as fluctuations that are common across all countries more generally the comovement of macroeconomic aggregates across different countries has become a topic of increasing interest in both academic and policy circles these issues have implications in a number of dimensions an empirical analysis of the relative importance of country specific versus common international fluctuations is of relevance for determining the structure of certain classes of international business cycle models from a policy perspective strong comovement of output across countries at business cycle frequencies implies that external trade would be unlikely to play a significant role in dampening fluctuations domestic policies aimed at affecting the real exchange rate and thereby attempting to boost net exports in the short run would then tend to have limited impact the degree of synchronisation of business cycles across countries also has important implications for short run international policy coordination and for assessing the feasibility of monetary unions therefore identifying and analysing the common component of international economic fluctuations is relevant from a number of different perspectives

variation in employment growth in canada the role of external national regional and industrial factors this article investigates the effect of external national and sectoral shocks on canadian employment fluctuations at the national industrial and provincial levels we assume that employment growth in each industry province pair depends on u s growth lagged canadian growth at the national industrial and provincial levels an aggregate shock and shocks specific to each industry province and industry province pair we estimate that the u s and canadian shocks account for two thirds and a quarter respectively of aggregate variation sectoral shocks account for only one tenth of aggregate variation but represent 30 of the variation from canadian sources

time series representations of economic variables and alternative models of the labour market accepting the hypothesis that the time series facts of the aggregate labour market may be summarized by the linear autoregressive and moving average representations of wages prices unemployment and interest rates implies that a useful theory ought to lead to predictions about these representations following this approach this paper first catalogues many of the time series facts about the aggregate labour market and then compares them against alternative models of the labour market based on the intertemporal substitution and staggered contract hypotheses