smallholders land access in sub saharan africa a new landscape while scholars long recognized the importance of land markets as a key driver of rural non farm development and transformation in rural areas evidence on the extent of their operation and the nature of participants remains limited we use household data from 6 countries to show that there is great potential for such markets to increase productivity and equalize factor ratios while rental markets transfer land to land poor and labor rich producers their operation and thus impact may be constrained by policy restrictions their functioning may also be constrained by ill defined or insecure rights that may arise from failure to fully compensate existing rights in cases of expropriation a failure to implement more broadly land policies or to do so in a gender sensitive manner methodological and substantive conclusions are derived

the ambiguous impact of inequality on local resource management abstract the impact of inequality on the ability of human groups to undertake successful collective action is investigated with special reference to overexploitation of common property resources in voluntary provision problems on the one hand inequality has an ambiguous impact on the feasibility of the efficient outcome even though better endowed agents contribute more to collective action in regulated settings on the other hand inequality tends to reduce the acceptability of available regulatory schemes and therefore to make collective action more difficult

tenure land rights and farmer investment incentives in china the goal of this paper is to understand the nature of the property rights associated with china s land tenure systems and to study the impact of these property rights on agricultural production efficiency the results show that land tenure and associated property rights in rural china affect the production behavior of farmers the most robust finding is that the right to use land for long periods of time encourages the use of land saving investments while the results show that land tenure affects agricultural production decisions the difference between collective and private plots however is small compared to the private plotcommunal productivity gap that existed in the pre reform period 1998 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

going digital credit effects of land registry computerization in india digitization of land records represents a unique way to test for credit supply effects of improved land administration information over time the authors exploit variation in the timing of the shift from manual to digital operation of andhra pradesh s 387 sub registry offices during the state wide rollout of this intervention from 1999 to 2005 data on credit disbursement and registered mortgages for the 1995 2007 period point to significant though quantitatively modest increases in credit access in urban areas institutional factors allow the authors to explain these results

tenure security and land related investment evidence from ethiopia the authors use a large data set from ethiopia that differentiates tenure security and transferability to explore determinants of different types of land related investment and its possible impact on productivity while they find some support for endogeneity of investment in trees this is not the case for terraces transfer rights are unambiguously investment enhancing the large productivity effect of terracing implies that even where households undertake investments to increase their tenure security this may not be socially efficient in ethiopia government action to increase tenure security and transferability of land rights can significantly enhance rural investment and productivity

assessing the functioning of land rental markets in ethiopia although a large theoretical literature discusses the possible inefficiency of sharecropping contracts the empirical evidence on this phenomenon has been ambiguous at best household level fixed effect estimates from about 8 500 plots operated by households that own and sharecrop land in the ethiopian highlands provide support for the hypothesis of marshallian inefficiency at the same time a factor adjustment model suggests that the extent to which rental markets allow households to attain their desired operational holding size is extremely limited our analysis points towards factor market imperfections no rental for oxen lack of alternative employment opportunities and tenure insecurity as possible reasons underlying such behavior suggesting that rather than worrying almost exclusively about marshallian inefficiency it is equally warranted to give due attention to the policy framework within which land rental markets operate

investment decisions in finite lived monopolies abstract this paper studies the value and optimal timing for investment in finite lived monopolies extending the literature on real option games by considering the cases of random and certain lived monopolies under these settings firms face the risk of demonopolization that can occur as a random or a certain event we show that these new settings produce significantly different results when compared to the canonical monopolistic and duopolistic models in a certain lived monopoly the leader invests sooner than in a duopoly if there is a risk of being preempted and later than in a monopoly if the leader role is pre assigned in a random lived monopoly entry occurs somewhere between the duopoly and monopoly cases higher uncertainty delays investment in all cases

identifying and addressing land governance constraints to support intensification and land market operation evidence from 10 african countries beyond concerns about agricultural productivity growth issues of land governance have attracted global interest as demand for land acquisition by outsiders has increased rapidly but most of the transfers failed to live up to expectations and instead disrupted local livelihoods we use the land governance assessment framework to identify key conceptual issues and identify how land governance in 10 african countries compares to global good practice results point towards weak protection of rights in practice large gaps in female land access and limited outreach and effectiveness of institutions to record rights and adjudicate disputes we note that programs to improve performance along these lines had significant impact in other contexts suggesting that efforts to improve land governance will be warranted and should be closely monitored and evaluated in an effort to identify models suited to african conditions and assess their impact and interaction with other factor markets

how teachers unions affect education production this study helps to explain why measured school inputs appear to have little effect on student outcomes particularly for cohorts educated since 1960 teachers unionization can explain how public schools simultaneously can have more generous inputs and worse student performance using panel data on united states school districts i identify the effect of teachers unionization through differences in the timing of collective bargaining especially timing determined by the passage of state laws that facilitate teachers unionization i find that teachers unions increase school inputs but reduce productivity sufficiently to have a negative overall effect on student performance union effects are magnified where schools have market power

local versus global separability in agricultural household models the factor price equalization effect of land transfer rights commonly employed global tests for separability between production and consumption decisions are theoretically inappropriate when the market failures creating non separabilities differentially constrain some but not all households simulated maximum likelihood estimates using chinese panel data reject the restrictions implied by a global separability test in favor of regime specific or local separability tests the estimates also show that a global approach to separability obscures the significant effect that less encumbered land transfer rights would have on shadow factor price equalization across households and allocative efficiency the findings on transfer rights suggest a resolution to the debate in china on further property rights reform copyright 2002 oxford university press

the impact of forecasting methods on the bullwhip effect abstract this paper considers the impact of forecasting methods on the bullwhip effect for a simple replenishment system in which a first order autoregressive process describes the customer demand and an order up to inventory policy characterizes the replenishment decision a bullwhip effect measure is derived for the optimal forecasting procedure that minimizes the mean squared forecasting error for the specified demand process similar measures are obtained for the moving average and exponential smoothing methods the findings indicate that different forecasting methods lead to bullwhip effect measures with distinct properties in relation to lead time and underlying parameters of the demand process moreover a simple rule is established to help managers select a forecasting method that yields the lowest inventory cost

the effect of land tenure governance on technical efficiency evidence from three provinces in eastern china this study aims to identify the mechanisms through which land tenure governance affects the technical efficiency of grain production in an integrated framework and to examine the impacts of the public governance village self governance and relational governance of land tenure on the technical efficiency of contracted land and rented in land farm level survey data collected from liaoning jiangxi and jiangsu provinces covering the years of 2014 and 2015 is used for the empirical analysis the findings indicate that i public governance associated with land certification significantly increases the technical efficiency of grain production ii village self governance and administrative land reallocations can serve as substitutes for the land rental market in optimizing the distribution of land resources and improving technical efficiency and iii compared to multi year transfer contracts both annual and open ended transfer contracts have negative impacts on technical efficiency

leaders followers and equity risk premiums in booms and busts abstract we study an investment problem in which two asymmetric firms face competition and the regime characterizing the economic condition follows a markov switching process we derive the value functions and investment thresholds of the leader and follower the option value of regime uncertainty is found to be quite important for the investment decision of firms we also show the relationship between the equity risk premium and the economic cycle that has not been done in previous studies which proxy economic conditions by the level of demand or other state variables

do overlapping property rights reduce agricultural investment evidence from uganda the need for land related investment to ensure sustainable land management and increase productivity of land use is widely recognized however there is little rigorous evidence on the effects of property rights for increasing agricultural productivity and contributing toward poverty reduction in africa whether and by how much overlapping property rights reduce investment incentives and the scope for policies to counter such disincentives are thus important policy issues using information on parcels under ownership and usufruct by the same household from a nationally representative survey in uganda the authors find significant disincentives associated with overlapping property rights on short and long term investments the paper combines this result with information on crop productivity to obtain a rough estimate of the magnitudes involved the authors make suggestions on ways to eliminate such inefficiencies

strategic investment under uncertainty a synthesis abstract investment is a central theme in economics finance and operational research traditionally the focus of analysis has been either on assessing the value of flexibility investment under uncertainty or on describing commitment effects in competitive settings industrial organization research contributions addressing the intersection of investment under uncertainty and industrial organization have become numerous in recent years in this paper we provide an overview aimed at categorizing and relating these research streams we highlight managerial insights concerning the nature of competitive advantage first versus second mover advantage the manner in which information is revealed firm heterogeneity capital increment size and the number of competing firms

the role of land certification in reducing gaps in productivity between male and female owned farms in rural ethiopia this paper analyses the impact of a low cost land certification programme on the productivity of female headed households the hypotheses tested in the paper emphasise on the interaction between the constraints that female headed households face in terms of insecure land tenure lack of productive resources and suboptimal land market participation on the one hand and the tenure security benefits of certification on the other our findings show that land certification has a positive effect on land market participation and productivity our analysis also suggests higher marginal effects of certification on female headed households productivity compared to the male ones

inequality control rights and rent seeking sugar cooperatives in maharashtra this paper presents a theory of rent seeking within farmer cooperatives in which inequality of asset ownership affects relative control rights of different groups of members the two key assumptions are constraints on lump sum transfers from poorer members and disproportionate control rights wielded by wealthier members transfers of rents to the latter are achieved by depressing prices paid for inputs supplied by members and diverting resulting retained earnings the theory predicts that increased heterogeneity of landholdings in the local area causes increased inefficiency by inducing a lower input price and a lower level of installed crushing capacity predictions concerning the effect of the distribution of local landownership on sugarcane price capacity levels and participation rates of different classes of farmers are confirmed by data from nearly 100 sugar cooperatives in the indian state of maharashtra over the period 1971 93

productivity and land enhancing technologies in northern ethiopia health public investments and sequential adoption the adoption of more efficient farming practices and technologies that enhance agricultural productivity and improve environmental sustainability is instrumental for achieving economic growth food security and poverty alleviation in sub saharan africa our research examines the interaction between public investments community health and adoption of productivity and land enhancing technologies by households in the northern ethiopian state of tigray agricultural technology adoption decisions are modeled as a sequential process where the timing of choices can matter we find that time spent sick and opportunity costs of caring for sick family members are significant factors in adoption sickness through its impact on household income and labor allocation decisions for healthcare and other activities significantly reduces the likelihood of technology adoption our findings suggest that agencies working to improve agricultural productivity and land resource conservation should consider not only the financial status of potential adopters but also their related health situation

competition and irreversible investments abstract incumbent monopolists frequently claim that the introduction of competition will reduce future profits and therefore delay future investments in this paper we show that not only is this not generally true but in the oligopolistic industry model of dixit and pindyck investment under uncertainty 1994 this is never the case we extend this result to situations in which investments have positive externalities and situations in which the monopolist has multiple investment opportunities

access to capital and its impact on agrarian structure and productivity in kenya access to capital and its distribution across agents can profoundly shape the structure and performance of an agrarian market economy it is conceptually useful to distinguish between ex ante and ex post capital access ex ante capital access denotes the ability of agents to finance production costs e g labor and purchased inputs costs which must be paid ex ante that is prior to the actual realization of production ex post capital access that is access to capital after the realization of the production process is of particular importance as an insurance substitute in low income agrarian economies where contingency markets are imperfect buoyant ex post capital access would permit an individual to stabilize consumption year to year even as production fluctuates annually a number of theoretical models have ex

first versus second mover advantage with information asymmetry about the profitability of new markets is it better to move first or second to innovate or to imitate we show that if one player s information about the profitability of new markets is only modestly superior the possibility of foreclosing the market can lead to a first mover advantage on the other hand more extreme information superiority can reverse this leading to a second mover advantage knowing more surely what is the best choice the better informed player wants to delay to keep his information private and the less informed player wants to delay to learn because of this more accurate information can actually lead to inefficiency by increasing the incentive to delay and exogenous costs of delay can aid efficiency by neutralizing that strategic incentive in fact in some circumstances a player may purposely coarsen his information to deter imitation

investment and equity effects of land regularisation the case of nicaragua we use data from nicaragua to examine the impact of award of registered and non registered title on land values and changes in land attached investment registration acquisition through purchase and agrarian reform title all are associated with significant increases in the value of plots receipt of registered title is found to increase land values by 30 and at the same time greatly increase the propensity to invest bringing such investment closer to the optimum in line with descriptive statistics indicating great demand for land right regularisation especially from the poor this suggests that titling can have a positive distributional effect at the same time the legal validity and official recognition of the titles issued appears to be of great importance

measuring and avoiding the bullwhip effect a control theoretic approach an important contributory factor to the bullwhip effect i e the variance amplification of order quantities observed in supply chains is the replenishment rule used by supply chain members first the bullwhip effect induced by the use of different forecasting methods in order up to replenishment policies is analysed variance amplification is quantified and we prove that the bullwhip effect is guaranteed in the order up to model irrespective of the forecasting method used thus when production is inflexible and significant costs are incurred by frequently switching production quantities up and down order up to policies may no longer be desirable or even achievable in the second part of the paper a general decision rule is introduced that avoids variance amplification and succeeds in generating smooth ordering patterns even when demand has to be forecasted the methodology is based on control systems engineering and allows important insights to be gained about the dynamic behaviour of replenishment rules

capacity switching options under rivalry and uncertainty abstract deregulated infrastructure industries exhibit stiff competition for market share firms may be able to limit the effects of competition by launching new projects in stages using a two stage real options model we explore the value of such flexibility we first demonstrate that the value of investing in a sequential manner for a monopolist is positive but decreases with uncertainty next we find that a typical duopoly firm s value relative to a monopolist s decreases with uncertainty as long as the loss in market share is high intriguingly this result is reversed for a low loss in market share we finally show that this loss in value is reduced if a firm invests in a sequential manner and specify the conditions under which sequential capacity expansion is more valuable for a duopolist firm than for a monopolist

indigenous land rights in sub saharan africa appropriation security and investment demand abstract we discuss the links between rights appropriation tenure security and investment demand in sub saharan africa common assertions regarding indigenous tenure are 1 a insecurity of tenure leads to suboptimal investment incentives and 2 b appropriation of land rights in the public domain is rent dissipating we argue that land use and investment decisions among african farmers often have two motives productivity and rights appropriation the usual assertions thus seem contradictory we offer a conceptual model to show that indigenous tenure may provide equal or higher investment incentives than private rights and may promote modes of rights appropriation that are productive rather than wasteful

on the investment uncertainty relationship in a real options model abstract it appears to be widely accepted in the real options literature that an increase in uncertainty should have an inhibiting effect on investment our article demonstrates that the notion of a negative uncertainty investment relationship is not always correct we show that in certain situations an increase in uncertainty can actually increase the probability of investing and thereby have a positive impact on investment

duopolistic competition under risk aversion and uncertainty a monopolist typically defers entry into an industry as both price uncertainty and the level of risk aversion increase by contrast the presence of a rival typically hastens entry under risk neutrality here we examine these two opposing effects in a duopoly setting we demonstrate that the value of a firm and its entry decision behave differently with risk aversion and uncertainty depending on the type of competition interestingly if the leader s role is defined endogenously then higher uncertainty makes her relatively better off whereas with the roles exogenously defined the impact of uncertainty is ambiguous

entry deterrence and hidden competition abstract this paper studies strategic investment behavior of firms facing an uncertain demand in a duopoly setting firms choose both investment timing and the capacity level while facing additional uncertainty about market participants which is introduced via the concept of hidden competition we focus on the analysis of possible strategies of the market leader in terms of its capacity choice and on the influence of hidden competition on these strategies we show that due to hidden competition the follower is more eager to invest as a result an entry deterrence strategy of the leader becomes more costly and it can only be implemented for smaller market size leaving additional room for entry accommodation the leader has incentives to prevent entry of the hidden competitor stimulating simultaneous investment if the hidden firm has a large capacity and has more incentives to apply entry deterrence in the complementary case of a small capacity of the hidden player in the first case overinvestment aimed to deter the follower s entry does not occur for a wide range of parameters values

irreversible investment and r d spillovers in a dynamic duopoly investments in new production processes usually involve a significant amount of rd an increase in uncertainty delaying the equilibrium calls for higher subsidization rates third numerical simulations show that the spillover reduces the difference between the leader s and the follower s maximum value functions accordingly our model can help generate realistic market betas

information distortion in a supply chain the bullwhip effect this article originally appeared in management science april 1997 volume 43 number 4 pp 546 558 published by the institute of management sciences consider a series of companies in a supply chain each of whom orders from its immediate upstream member in this setting inbound orders from a downstream member serve as a valuable informational input to upstream production and inventory decisions this paper claims that the information transferred in the form of orders tends to be distorted and can misguide upstream members in their inventory and production decisions in particular the variance of orders may be larger than that of sales and distortion tends to increase as one moves upstream a phenomenon termed bullwhip effect this paper analyzes four sources of the bullwhip effect demand signal processing rationing game order batching and price variations actions that can be taken to mitigate the detrimental impact of this distortion are also discussed

does land titling improve credit access quasi experimental evidence from rural china based on official surveys conducted in 2010 and 2015 we study how the chinese land titling reform beginning in 2009 affected rural households access to credit we find that the reform had differe

irreversible investment under uncertainty in oligopoly abstract an oligopoly is studied where firms facing a stochastic inverse demand curve use capacity as strategic variable capacity may be adjusted continuously over time with linear cost the analysis uses the technique of a fictitious social planner and the theory of irreversible investment under uncertainty examples indicate that qualitatively the price process will be similar in oligopoly and competitive equilibrium when firms are nonidentical e g in initial size and even if they are alike in other respects substantial time may pass until they are all the same size much of that time one firm may dominate the market

impacts of land certification on tenure security investment and land market participation evidence from ethiopia this brief summarizes the results of a gender impact evaluation study entitled impacts of land certification on tenure security investment and land market participation evidence from ethiopia conducted between 2006 and 2011 in ethiopia the study observed the impact of land registration on tenure security land related investment and rental market participation using 900 randomly selected households and 4000 plots cultivated by the households on the household and land plots level certification resulted in significant reduction of tenure insecurity and an increase in land related investment the propensity to invest in water conservation increased between 20 and 30 percent from panel estimates the increased investment appears to be sustained over the long term the propensity to rent land increases by 9 to 13 percent the titling had significant positive impacts on the rate at which female headed households rented their land funding for the study derived from the gender action plan global land tools network and norwegian environmentally and socially sustainable development essd trust fund

the role of forecasting on bullwhip effect for e scm applications abstract the bullwhip effect represents the information distortion in customer demand between orders to supplier and sales to the buyer demand forecasting is one of the main causes of the bullwhip effect the purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of exponential smoothing forecasts on the bullwhip effect for electronic supply chain management e scm applications a simulation model is developed to experiment the different scenarios of selecting right parameters for the exponential smoothing forecasting technique it is found that longer lead times and poor selection of forecasting model parameters lead to strong bullwhip effect in e scm in contrast increased seasonality helps to reduce the bullwhip effect the most significant managerial implication of this study lies in the need to reduce lead times along the e supply chain to mitigate the bullwhip effect while high seasonality would reduce the forecast accuracy it has a positive influence on the reduction of bullwhip effect e scm managers are therefore strongly suggested to utilize exponential smoothing by selecting lower values for and and a mid value for to keep the bullwhip ratio low while at the same time to increase forecast accuracy

untitled a study of formal and informal property rights in urban ecuador we explore the substitutability of formal and informal property rights using new survey data from ecuador where households have both formal and informal claims to urban residential property we develop a model of property transactions that distinguishes between transferable and non transferable claims and show how this distinction affects the interpretation of hedonic price regressions the unconditional effect of title is to raise properties value by 23 5 however we also find that informal property rights can substitute effectively for formal property rights and suggest that titling programmes should be targeted at young disorganised communities if they are to benefit the recipients

land tenure and agricultural productivity in africa a comparative analysis of the economics literature and recent policy strategies and reforms summary this paper examines the convergence and divergence of results from economic studies of the relationships between land tenure security and agricultural productivity in africa and how these results have been incorporated into recent agricultural poverty alleviation and land policy documents the paper finds that there are both areas of convergence and divergence in the economics literature similarly the attention given to land tenure and its perceived effects on productivity varies considerably in the policy literature the significant heterogeneity in findings itself suggests that policy responses must pay attention to local context and the overarching macro and sectoral conditions within which tenure systems operate

strategic entry in a triopoly market of firms with asymmetric cost structures abstract this paper examines the strategic investment timing decision in a triopoly market comprising firms with asymmetric cost structures we present three novel results first in the case where there are relatively small cost asymmetries between firms and a relatively small first mover advantage the firm with the lowest cost structure is not always the first investor in other cases the firm with the lowest cost structure is the first investor second an increase in volatility increases the possibility that a firm without the lowest cost structure is the first investor finally even in the three asymmetric firm model we show that the first investor threshold is larger in a triopoly than in a duopoly although it is smaller in a duopoly than in a monopoly

option exercise games an application to the equilibrium investment strategies of firms under the standard real options approach to investment under uncertainty agents formulate optimal exercise strategies in isolation and ignore competitive interactions however in many real world asset markets exercise strategies cannot be determined separately but must be formed as part of a strategic equilibrium this article provides a tractable approach for deriving equilibrium investment strategies in a continuous time cournot nash framework the impact of competition on exercise strategies is dramatic for example while standard real options models emphasize that a valuable option to wait leads firms to invest only at large positive net present values the impact of competition drastically erodes the value of the option to wait and leads to investment at very near the zero net present value threshold copyright 2002 oxford university press

investment in competitive equilibrium the optimality of myopic behavior there is an extensive literature on the optimal irreversible investment strategy of a solitary firm facing an exogenous price process this paper shows that the investment strategies that this literature derives may be optimal in competitive equilibrium even though the price process is now endogenous this provides a simple means for computing equilibrium investment strategies

soil erosion and smallholders conservation decisions in the highlands of ethiopia abstract soil erosion is one of the most serious environmental problems in ethiopia coupled with growing populations falling per capita food production and worsening poverty loss of productive land due to land degradation undermines rural livelihoods and national food security despite their awareness of the erosion problem peasants investments in land have been limited we use an applied nonseparable model to simulate conservation decisions pervasive market imperfections poverty and high rates of time preference seem to undermine erosion control investments lack of technologies which provide quick returns to subsistence constrained peasants also seem to deter such investments lower private incentives to internalize the intertemporal land degradation externality may require public intervention

property rights and the role of the state evidence from the horn of africa this study applies extant theories of property rights change to three land tenure systems in imperial ethiopia two of the areas underwent changes in property rights after experiencing changes in the value of land one did not a data set of litigation over land rights is used in conjunction with case studies to understand the mechanisms motivating or impeding property rights change amendments to the role of the state are suggested and two conclusions are reached 1 that movement towards greater specificity of land rights did not always occur and 2 the changes in property rights that occurred were imposed from above rather than occurring endogenously where property rights changes did not occur they appear to have been blocked by the state which was more concerned with political survival than with revenue maximisation

peasants against private property rights a review of the literature land is the main if not the only asset for a majority of people in developing countries the definition and allocation of rights over land are thus naturally essential aspects of individuals daily lives as well as critical determinants of social and economic development the privatization of land rights has long been seen as a necessary process enhancing both efficiency and equity however privatized land rights have not always emerged endogenously while exogenously driven programs of land privatization have not always been successful nor popular this has raised questions about the expected benefits of land rights privatization this paper aims at summarizing the main arguments and studies both theoretical and empirical on this issue with a specific focus on the factors that can make privatization inefficient or detrimental for the most concerned individuals

tenure insecurity and investment in soil conservation evidence from malawi tenure insecurity can have important consequences for the conservation of natural resources this paper focuses on two main sources of tenure insecurity informal short term tenancy contracts and customary gender biased inheritance practices using a large plot level dataset from malawi the analysis employs a linear probability model with household fixed effects and finds that both sources of insecurity have a negative effect on soil conservation investments these findings suggest that future land reforms should deal with the informality of the land rental market and address the gap between users and owners of land created by existing customary practices

the impact of information enrichment on the bullwhip effect in supply chains a control engineering perspective this paper examines the beneficial impact of information sharing in multi echelon supply chains we compare a traditional supply chain in which only the first stage in the chain observes end consumer demand and upstream stages have to base their forecasts on incoming orders with an information enriched supply chain where customer demand data e g epos data is shared throughout the chain two types of replenishment rules are analysed order up to out policies and smoothing policies policies used to reduce or dampen variability in the demand for the class of out policies we will show that information sharing helps to reduce the bullwhipeffect variance amplification of ordering quantities in supply chains significantly especially at higher levels in the chain however the bullwhip problem is not completely eliminated and it still increases as one moves up the chain for the smoothing policies we show that information sharing is necessary to reduce order variance at higher levels of the chain the methodology is based on control systems engineering and allows us to gain valuable insights into the dynamic behaviour of supply chain replenishment rules we also introduce acontrolengineering based measure to quantify the variance amplification bullwhip or variance reduction

the social efficiency of private decisions to enforce property rights costs must be incurred if an owner is to enforce private property rights effectively we show that in a perfectly competitive economy private decisions to enforce rights may result in either more or less enforcement than is socially efficient cases of multiple stable equilibria occur and an equilibrium may be locally but not globally efficient resources may not be employed in their socially most valuable uses and enforcement may be accompanied by inefficient investment in resource productivity

an empirically simulated investigation of the impact of demand forecasting on the bullwhip effect evidence from u s auto industry this study empirically examines the impacts of three major aspects of demand forecasting on the magnitude of the bullwhip effect three research questions are addressed to investigate the association between 1 forecast accuracy 2 aggregate forecasting and 3 responsive forecasting and the bullwhip effect using forecasted demand generated from popular time series forecasting models and real life demand data the study investigates the relationship between the forecasted results and the consequential bullwhip effect the findings show that the forecasting methods used lead to the variation of the bullwhip effect moreover the lead time reduction and the stable demand forecast are beneficial to reduce the bullwhip effect however our empirical results differ from previous findings in two ways i improving forecast accuracy does not necessarily reduce the bullwhip effect and ii aggregate forecasting does not always reduce the bullwhip effect

investment in soil conservation in northern ethiopia the role of land tenure security and public programs abstract a double hurdle statistical analysis of 250 farms in the tigray region of ethiopia reveals different causal factors for soil conservation adoption versus intensity of use farmers reasons for adopting soil conservation measures vary sharply between stone terraces and soil bunds long term investments in stone terraces were associated with secure land tenure labour availability proximity to the farmstead and learning opportunities via the existence of local food for work ffw projects by contrast short term investments in soil bunds were strongly linked to insecure land tenure and the absence of local food for work projects public conservation campaigns on private plots reduced adoption of both stone terraces and soil bunds whereas capacity factors largely influenced the adoption decision expected returns carried more influence for the intensity of stone terrace adoption measured as metres of terrace per hectare more stone terracing was built where fertile but erodible silty soils in higher rainfall areas offered valuable yield benefits intensity of terracing was also greater in remote villages where limited off farm employment opportunities reduced construction costs these results highlight the importance of the right kind of public interventions direct public involvement in constructing soil conservation structures on private lands appears to undermine incentives for private conservation investments when done on public lands however public conservation activities may encourage private soil conservation by example secure land tenure rights clearly reinforce private incentives to make long term investments in soil conservation

expected failures and unexpected successes of land titling in africa abstract the imposition of market oriented economic reforms throughout africa in the 1990s has sparked renewed debate over the desirability of state sponsored land titling programs proponents argue that land titling is an essential foundation for economic growth opponents contend that titling programs are unnecessary and premature at best or detrimental at worst this paper addresses these concerns through an examination of cameroon s 1974 lands ordinance using both quantitative and qualitative data we find that the 1974 lands ordinance has not introduced western style private property rights in cameroon s agrarian sector nevertheless the ordinance is not irrelevant to rural farmers rural farmers have used the ordinance to obtain concrete boundary markers on their land enhancing their tenure security in addition administrators have used the ordinance to register underdeveloped land reducing the contradictions between state law and customary law these findings suggest that policy makers could fruitfully redesign their land tenure policies to render them more attractive to rural farmers and thereby give the state a more constructive role in enhancing tenure security and in promoting economic growth

two tier land tenure system and sustained economic growth in post 1978 rural china abstract the two tier land tenure system has been widely blamed for the problems in land allocation and in land specific investment observed in the postreform rural china greater privatization of property rights in land has been proposed to enable productive farmers to acquire more land to promote land circulation to improve farmers access to credit and to encourage farm investment it is argued here that in the presence of multiple market distortions land privatization is unlikely to provide a solution to the agricultural problems rather an approach which refines the existing framework of the two tier ownership system offers more promise

land tenure security and investment incentives puzzling evidence from burkina faso abstract the commonsense logic associating higher land security and higher incentives to invest has been recently called into question in the case of african agriculture to be meaningful empirical tests have to be carefully designed so as to take account of the possible endogeneity of the land rights variable this is done in this paper by applying suitable econometric methods to the original data collected in burkina faso the results obtained cast doubt on the existence of a systematic influence of land tenure security on investment by reviewing the justifications for scepticism in the recent literature we are able to conclude that the traditional village order where it exists provides the basic land rights required to stimulate small scale investment

debt poverty and resource management in a rural smallholder economy this paper develops a model to capture the key features of poverty credit constraints and resource management faced by poor rural households we assume that due to the existence of asymmetric information and moral hazard the household faces an increasing cost of credit as its debt equity ratio rises a household exploiting a natural resource may fall into a poverty trap but only if it is unable to afford the increasing borrowing costs implied by increasing debt to allow it to avoid such a trap or if it discounts future utility so much that a balanced growth path cannot be financed at any level of long run borrowing in contrast along an optimal balanced growth path the household s asset wealth purchased inputs resource stock and consumption increase at the same constant rate however over the long run there may be carrying capacity limits that prevent the resource from improving further the household may then direct its savings to accumulating financial assets and eventually under certain conditions may become a net creditor with resource exploitation becoming a less and less important source of its income

quantifying the bullwhip effect using two echelon data a cross industry empirical investigation the bullwhip effect denotes the phenomenon whereby demand variability is amplified from a downstream site buyer to an upstream site supplier in the supply chain this paper contributes to the literature that empirically investigates the bullwhip effect by providing new evidence regarding its prevalence and magnitude in contrast to previous work we use a two echelon approach which allows us to observe variations at both the upstream and the downstream sites by drawing on a financial accounting standard regarding information disclosure about major customers we are able to link 5494 buyers and suppliers in the u s between 1976 and 2009 we merge this information with quarterly financial accounting data to form a sample of 14 933 buyer supplier dyad observations we correct for sample selection bias using propensity score matching and estimate the average bullwhip effect in our sample to be 1 90 i e 90 demand variability amplification between echelons a significant bullwhip effect is observed across industries mining manufacturing wholesale and retail and is supported by several robustness checks we investigate and discuss how these results can be generalized beyond our sample

a century long perspective on agricultural development this article strategically surveys the past century s literature on agricultural development we organize the discussion around three grand themes that reveal the richness of agricultural development as an intellectual endeavor first we explore the role of agriculture in the broader development process from a macroeconomic and political economy perspective we then examine the role of technological and institutional change in successful agricultural development finally the focus turns to a microeconomic perspective on agricultural household decision making and the problems of imperfect and missing markets asymmetric information and transactions costs that lead to widespread apparent inefficiency and disequilibrium

investment in oligopoly under uncertainty the accordion effect this paper studies investments in new markets where more than two anticipated identical competitors are present in case of three firms an accordion effect is detected an exogenous demand shock results in a change of the wedge between investment thresholds of the first and second investor that is qualitatively different from the change of the wedge between the second and third investment threshold furthermore it turns out that in the three firm case the investment timing of the first investor lies in between the one and the two firm case these results are numerically extended to the n firm case

clustering in n player preemption games we study a complete information preemption game in continuous time a finite number of firms decide when to make an irreversible observable investment upon investment a firm receives flow profits which decrease in the number of firms that have invested the cost of investment declines over time exogenously we characterize the subgame perfect equilibrium outcome which is unique up to a permutation of players when the preemption race among late investors is sufficiently intense the preemption incentive for earlier investors disappears and two or more investments occur at the same time we identify a sufficient condition in terms of model parameters clustering of investments occurs if the flow profits from consecutive investments are sufficiently close this shows how clustering can occur in the absence of coordination failures informational spillovers or positive payoff externalities

capacity choice under uncertainty in a duopoly with endogenous exit abstract applying the real options framework this article investigates the investment decision of the entrant given that an incumbent is already active both firms have an option to exit this market if the demand level falls too low the combination of three decision components capacity choice entry and exit timing results into multiple trigger strategies for the entrant in particular in the presence of a large incumbent it can either choose to coexist with its rival in a duopoly or eventually monopolize the market by installing a sufficiently large capacity the former scenario is realized when the market is large while the latter occurs when the market is small when the market is of intermediate size a hysteresis region emerges where the entrant does not take any actions and prefers to postpone investment

investment under regime uncertainty impact of competition and preemption abstract in this study we analyze the investment timing problem and introduce a model of two firms competing for investment preemption each of which knows in advance the time at which the economic condition that will have an impact on the investment changes we qualitatively show how two firms strategically optimize their investment timing taking into account competition and preemption

resettlement for food security s sake insights from a malawi land reform project in several african contexts households are unable to enhance agricultural production due to land constraints few governments have explored the use of resettlement to alleviate land scarcity and facilitate rural to rural migration we examine whether a resettlement project in southern malawi improved food security in the long term our findings indicate resettled households achieved greater long term food security owing to additional land coupled with a more diversified crop portfolio we also find the formalization of property rights improved land security for male and female household heads but resettlement jeopardized the land security of women in male headed households

land redistribution tenure insecurity and intensity of production a study of farm households in southern ethiopia this study analyzes the determinants of land tenure insecurity and its impact on intensity of use of purchased farm inputs among households in southern ethiopia seventeen percent of the households stated that they were tenure insecure the feeling of tenure insecurity could be caused by the land redistribution policy in ethiopia where household size has been the main criterion used for land allocation after the land reform in 1975 this would imply that land rich households should be more tenure insecure alternatively the local power structure may be strong enough to counter this and cause the land rich who are also likely to be influential to be able to protect their land rights the analysis revealed that in the overall sample relative farm size was not significantly correlated with tenure insecurity when testing for each site however we found that in four of the sites per capita farm size was positively associated with tenure insecurity while in five other sites it had a significant negative association this may be due to local historical cultural and demographic differences giving way to differences in the effects of the redistribution policy and the local power structure on tenure insecurity we assessed the impact of tenure insecurity on the intensity of use of purchased farm inputs the tenure insecurity variable was insignificant farmers in areas with a positive correlation between farm size and tenure insecurity were more likely to purchase farm inputs larger farms were more likely to use purchased inputs but this effect was lower in areas with a positive correlation between farm size and tenure insecurity poverty and subsistence constraints may explain this absence of higher intensity of use of purchased inputs on small farms by contrast the land redistribution policy may have improved small farms access to purchased farm inputs text of abstract

on bullwhip in supply chains historical review present practice and expected future impact abstract demand amplification or bullwhip as it is now called is not a new phenomenon since evidence of its existence has been recorded at least as far back as the start of the 20th century and is well known to economists yet industry worldwide still has to cope with bullwhip measured not just in terms of the 2 1 amplification which is frequently quoted but sometimes it is as high as 20 1 from end to end in the supply chain this can be very costly in terms of capacity on costs and stock out costs on the upswing and stockholding and obsolescence costs on the downswing in this paper we have identified 10 published causes of bullwhip all of which are capable of elimination by re engineering the supply chain we offer evidence on the present health of a family of supply chains and pinpoint much good practice this is in anticipation that such excellence will become normative in the near future as the learning experience gathers momentum and provided that human factors are properly addressed

developing real option game models by mixing concepts from both game theoretic analysis and real options theory an investment decision in a competitive market can be seen as a game between firms as firms implicitly take into account other firms reactions to their own investment actions we review two decades of real option game models suggesting which critical problems have been solved by considering game theory and which significant problems have not been yet adequately addressed we provide some insights on the plausible empirical applications or shortfalls in applications to date and suggest some promising avenues for future research

the potential of land rental markets in the process of economic development evidence from china abstract we develop a model of land leasing with agents characterized by unobserved heterogeneity in ability and presence of an off farm labor market in this case decentralized land rental may contribute to equity and efficiency goals and may have several advantages over administrative reallocation the extent to which this is true empirically is explored using data from three of china s poorest provinces land rental markets and administrative reallocation reallocate land to those with lower endowments but the former are more effective in doing so and have a bigger productivity enhancing effect information on hypothetical market participation suggests that reducing transaction costs in land rental markets could help to realize significant additional productivity gains

land tenure and investment incentives evidence from west africa abstract the existing literature on the relationship between property rights in land and agricultural investment in africa has given results that are often confusing and contradictory i make two clarifying contributions to this literature first i pull together existing studies and investigate whether the results they find have been affected by research methods or local contexts studies with small sample sizes those that use binary investment measures and those that control for household fixed effects are less likely to find a statistically significant link between land tenure and investment self reported tenure security has been a poor predictor of investment outcomes second i test for a relationship between land tenure and agricultural investment in nine data sets from west africa while the link between tenure and investment is significant for fallow and tree planting it is less robust for labor use and other inputs such as manure or chemical fertilizer

preemption games under levy uncertainty abstract we study a stochastic version of fudenberg tirole s preemption game two firms contemplate entering a new market with stochastic demand firms differ in sunk costs of entry if the demand process has no upward jumps the low cost firm enters first and the high cost firm follows if leader s optimization problem has an interior solution the leader enters at the optimal threshold of a monopolist otherwise the leader enters earlier than the monopolist if the demand admits positive jumps then the optimal entry threshold of the leader can be lower than the monopolist s threshold even if the solution is interior simultaneous entry can happen either as an equilibrium or a coordination failure the high cost firm can become the leader we characterize subgame perfect equilibrium strategies in terms of stopping times and value functions analytical expressions for the value functions and thresholds that define stopping times are derived

preemption and rent equalization in the adoption of new technology we study the adoption of a new technology to illustrate the effects of preemption in games of timing we show that the threat of preemption equalizes rents in a duopoly but that this result does not extend to the general oligopoly game if the gain to preemption is sufficiently small then the optimal symmetric outcome which involves late adoption is an equilibrium this contrasts with reinganum s result that in precommitment equilibria there must be diffusion we develop a new and richer formalism for modeling games of timing which permits a continuoustime representation of the limit of discrete time mixed strategy equilibria

property rights and productivity the case of joint land titling in vietnam this paper explores the effect of land titling on agricultural productivity in vietnam and the productivity effects of single versus joint titling for husband and wife using a plot fixed effects approach our results show that obtaining a land title is associated with higher yields for both individually and jointly held titles we conclude that there is no tradeoff between joint titling and productivity and so joint titles are potentially an effective way to improve women s bargaining power within the household with no associated efficiency losses

regional agricultural endowments and shifts of poverty trap equilibria evidence from ethiopian panel data we examine changes in patterns of equilibria over time and across regions applied to the ethiopia rural household survey we revisit incidence of multiple equilibria using new nonparametric techniques and examine single equilibria that remain stagnant below the poverty line using quantile regressions we identify differences across the income distribution we introduce the empirical analysis of sequences of equilibria we identify a single equilibrium in 1994 1999 but find a second higher equilibrium emerging in 1999 2004 evidencing a shift from unimodal toward a bimodal asset distribution the most deprived region exhibits a low level stagnant equilibrium despite significant rural income growth nationwide

population tenure and natural resource management the case of customary land area in malawi abstract this paper analyzes the factors determining conversion of woodlands to agricultural land changes in tree cover and maize yield for the last two and a half decades by using aerial photos and field survey data in 57 communities in malawi the econometric analysis revealed that population pressure led to greater land conversion but had no effect on yield or tree cover changes areas where greater changes in traditional tenure systems have occurred are associated with reduction in tree cover and expansion of agricultural land these results suggest the importance of strengthening institutions to manage natural resources

empowerment and efficiency tenancy reform in west bengal the paper analyzes the effect of agricultural tenancy laws offering security of tenure to tenants and regulating the share of output that is paid as rent on farm productivity theoretically the net impact of tenancy reform is shown to be a combination of two effects a bargaining power effect and a security of tenure effect analysis of evidence on how contracts and productivity changed after a tenancy reform program was implemented in the indian state of west bengal in the late 1970s suggests that tenancy reform had a positive effect on agricultural productivity there

tenure security resource endowments and tree growing evidence from the amhara region of ethiopia we analyze roles of tenure insecurity and household endowments in explaining tree growing in ethiopia where farmers cannot sell or mortgage land and factor markets are imperfect unlike most other studies we use panel data and examine determinants of the decision and intensity of tree growing unlike other studies we compare the decision to keep trees and the decision to plant in the recent past the results suggest that land tenure insecurity influences the decision to grow trees but not the number of trees households grow household endowments time and location also explain tree growing by farmers

the impact of kinship networks on the adoption of risk mitigating strategies in ethiopia the adoption of certain farm management practices such as tree planting and soil and water conservation can reduce exposure to weather shocks however in many countries the adoption of such risk mitigating measures is far from complete we explore how risk sharing networks in the form of kinship characterized by the moral imperative of within group sharing affects the adoption of risk mitigating activities in rural ethiopia we find suggestive evidence that compulsory sharing invites free riding and attenuates incentives for self protection against weather shocks we also find evidence of the existence of a possible substitution effect between credit and social networks

preemptive investments under uncertainty credibility and first mover advantages we present a continuous time game in which two firms must decide at each instant of time whether to be in or out of a market that expands up to a random maturity date and declines thereafter firms are initially inactive and they differ only in the opportunity costs of using their assets e g owing to different redeployment or resale values after characterizing the unique markov perfect equilibrium of the entry and exit game under demand uncertainty we challenge the result that the threat of preemption can partially or even totally dissipate a first mover advantage when post entry profits can be negative the preemption threat of a firm may become weaker because its rival may force it out of the market after entering as a result there may be little or no dissipation of the first mover advantage when post investment profits are not assumed to be always positive

strategic technology switching under risk aversion and uncertainty abstract firms devising green investment strategies within a deregulated environment must take into account not only economic and technological uncertainty but also strategic interactions due to competition also further complicating green investment decisions is the fact that firms are likely to exhibit risk aversion since alternative energy technologies entail risk that cannot be diversified therefore we develop a utility based real options framework for pre emptive and non pre emptive competition in order to analyse how economic and technological uncertainty interact with risk aversion to impact the adoption of an existing technology in the light of uncertainty over the arrival of an improved version we confirm that greater risk aversion delays investment and show that technological uncertainty accelerates the follower s entry delays the entry of the pre emptive leader and intriguingly does not affect the non pre emptive leader s investment decision also we show how the relative loss in the leader s value due to the follower s entry is affected by economic and technological uncertainty as well as risk aversion and how the risk of pre emption under increasing economic uncertainty raises the value of direct investment in the new technology relative to stepwise investment