implications of agricultural trade liberalization for the developing countries abstract the developing countries as a group could expect to experience only small welfare gains if they chose not to actively participate in agricultural trade liberalization and relied solely on the benefits of partial liberalization in the oecd countries participation along the lines of the dunkel package with the developing countries reducing positive assistance by less than the developed countries would yield gains of the order of us 20 billion more comprehensive participation in trade liberalization involving reductions of both positive and negative protection would almost triple these welfare gains while some developing countries do not gain from trade liberalization even with full participation the number of such countries and the magnitude of their losses are greatly reduced

beyond bankruptcy does the us bankruptcy code provide a fresh start to entrepreneurs abstract this paper assesses the extent to which the us bankruptcy system is effective in providing small businesses a fresh start after a bankruptcy filing i use data from the 1993 1998 and 2003 national survey of small business finances to explore how firms fare after a bankruptcy filing on the positive side previously bankrupt firms are not any more burdened than the average small firm by problems relating to profitability cash flow health insurance costs or taxes further the fact that these firms are surviving several years after the filing is itself a testament to the efficient functioning of the us bankruptcy system it suggests that the bankruptcy system goes a long way toward helping businesses recover after a bankruptcy filing however the one area of concern that persists after a filing is financing or credit access in general these firms have a nearly 24 percentage point higher likelihood of being denied a loan and are charged interest rates that are more than 1 percentage point higher than those charged to other businesses a bankruptcy affects all types of financing even trade credit which is a significant form of lending between businesses in fact it appears that firms with a bankruptcy record are rationed out of the market with all types of loans being denied at significantly higher rates than other firms further my results show that bankruptcy leads to a class of discouraged borrowers who are significantly less likely to even apply for a loan

personal bankruptcy and credit supply and demand this paper examines how personal bankruptcy and bankruptcy exemptions affect the supply and demand for credit while generous state level bankruptcy exemptions are probably viewed by most policy makers as benefiting less well off borrowers our results using data from the 1983 survey of consumer finances suggest that they increase the amount of credit held by high asset households and reduce the availability and amount of credit to low asset households conditioning on observable characteristics thus bankruptcy exemptions redistribute credit toward borrowers with high assets interest rates on automobile loans for low asset households also appear to be higher in high exemption states

long run trends in 26 primary commodity prices abstract this paper uses time series techniques to re examine the prebisch singer hypothesis that there has been a secular deterioration in primary commodity prices in terms of manufactured goods instead of using price indices it considers 26 individual commodity prices over the period 1900 1983 this avoids possible aggregation and interpretation problems associated with the use of aggregate indices the study finds that 16 of the 26 prices are trendless five have statistically significant negative trends the remaining five have positive trends it concludes that the prebisch singer hypothesis should certainly not be considered a universal phenomenon or stylized fact

mortgage lending in boston interpreting hmda data the home mortgage disclosure act was enacted to monitor minority and low income access to the mortgage market the data collected for this purpose show that minorities are more than twice as likely to be denied a mortgage as whites yet variables correlated with both race and creditworthiness were omitted from these data making any conclusion about race s role in mortgage lending impossible the federal reserve bank of boston collected additional variables important to the mortgage lending decision and found that race continued to play an important though significantly diminished role in the decision to grant a mortgage copyright 1996 by american economic association

international trade and agricultural development in developing countries significance of the uruguay round of gatt negotiations abstract liberalization of world trade in agricultural products ranks high on the agenda of the uruguay round after a period of more than six years however the negotiations have not been concluded nevertheless an outcome seems to be in sight the agreement will most likely not result in a move to freer trade it seems that domestic policies will become even more regulative than in the past in an attempt to cut exportable surpluses and to ease trade tensions among the main exporting nations this paper explores possible impacts of the gatt round on agricultural development in developing countries agricultural development is more than only growth in agricultural production or productivity however it is argued in the paper that other variables which also indicate agricultural development are often closely correlated with growth in production and productivity trade in agricultural products is not always an engine for agricultural development if internal divergences are not accounted for by appropriate domestic policies trade may be even harmful to agricultural development hence empirical research based on cross country analysis does not provide a clear answer about the role of trade for development past policies in industrialized countries have most likely had a negative effect on developing countries as a group however the effects differ widely across countries liberalization policies in industrialized countries would not just reverse these negative effects for developing countries price reduction in industrialized countries may not result in the often cited production decline in the short term present x inefficiency in agriculture will be reduced by liberalization leading to an outward shift of the supply curve hence liberalization may not lead to higher world market prices for temperate zone products in the short and medium term apart from this empirical models differ widely in the price effects they predict the expected outcome of the uruguay round increased regulation of domestic policies is likely both more negative for developing countries than past protectionist policies and worse than an overall liberalization world market prices will increase uncertainty and instability can be expected to grow and food aid may become less available there will be a need to react to these challenges with measures on the international and national level initiatives to deal with food crises in developing countries and to stimulate liberalization in developing countries should be considered finally developing countries should be made aware that their own domestic policies have a much greater economic impact than policies in other countries even if the latter are as protectionist as current agricultural policies in the industrialized world

discrimination in the small business credit market we use data from the 1993 and 1998 national surveys of small business finances to examine the existence of racial discrimination in the small business credit market we conduct an econometric analysis of loan outcomes by race and find that black owned small businesses are about twice as likely to be denied credit even after controlling for differences in creditworthiness and other factors a series of specification checks indicates that this gap is unlikely to be explained by omitted variable bias these results indicate that the racial disparity in credit availability is likely caused by discrimination

what happens when information leaves a market evidence from postbankruptcy consumers federal law mandates the removal of personal bankruptcies from credit reports after 10 years the removal s effect is market efficiency in reverse the short term effect is a spurious boost in apparent creditworthiness especially for the more creditworthy bankrupts delivering a substantial increase in both credit scores and the number and aggregate limit of bank cards the longer term effect is lower scores and higher delinquency than initial full information scores predict these findings relate to both the debate over the bankruptcy code and the wisdom of influencing market clearing by removing information

redefining business success distinguishing between closure and failure new firms are believed to have high closure rates and these closures are believed to be failures but two u s census bureau data sources illustrate that these assumptions may not be justified the business information tracking series bits showed that about half of new employer firms survive beyond four years and the characteristics of business owners cbo showed that about a third of closed businesses were successful at closure the cbo also made it possible to compare results of models of business survival and business success but because of non response bias logit models were used similar to previous studies firms having more resources that were larger with better financing and having employees were found to have better chances of survival factors that were characteristic of closure such as having no start up capital and having a relatively young owner were also common in businesses considered successful at closure hence few defining factors can be isolated leading to true failures the significant proportion of businesses that closed while successful calls into question the use of business closure as a meaningful measure of business outcome it appears that many owners may have executed a planned exit strategy closed a business without excess debt sold a viable business or retired from the work force it is also worth noting that such inborn factors as race and gender played negligible roles in determining survivability and success at closure

rates for vehicle loans race and loan source a household s vehicle purchases are among its largest expenditure outlays moreover unlike housing purchases which a typical household may make once or twice over a lifetime a house hold may well buy several cars over the same interval the magnitude and relative frequency of vehicle purchases suggest that differential treatment by race in the vehicle market may have important implications for differences in wealth and financial well being by race yet whereas a robust literature in economics has studied virtu

distortions in world food markets in the wake of gatt evidence and policy implications abstract although the principle of trade liberalization has gained wide acceptance in recent years many policy makers in developing countries especially in latin america are exploring temporary import restrictions in the form of additional tariff protection to insulate domestic farmers from the impact of depressed prices until the uruguay round accord leads to higher world market prices for agricultural products the paper argues that there is little reason to believe that current world market prices will rise substantially in real terms even with the uruguay round accord fully implemented this finding suggests that additional tariff protection would not make economic sense

ex ante efficiency of bankruptcy procedures abstract this paper suggests a framework to analyze the efficiency properties of bankruptcy procedures distinguishing between ex ante and ex post efficiency ex post efficiency consists in maximizing the ex post value of the insolvent firm whereas ex ante efficiency consists in maximizing the proceeds to creditors from the reorganization of the firm and providing incentives for the creditors to monitor the firm we show that the definition of creditors ownership rights over the company and the protection of the creditors seniority are crucial to asses the ex ante efficiency of a bankruptcy procedure

scarcity without leviathan the violent effects of cocaine supply shortages in the mexican drug war abstract this paper asks whether scarcity increases violence in markets that lack a centralized authority we construct a model in which by raising prices scarcity fosters violence guided by our

entrepreneur human capital endowments and minority business viability this study analyzes the relationship between entrepreneur human capital endowments and minority enterprise profitability the better educated subset of entrepreneurs earns high profits relative to their minority business counterparts and the lines of business in which they are concentrating lie outside the retail and personal service areas that have traditionally dominated minority business activity in addition to fostering industrial diversity by creating and expanding firms in heavy construction manufacturing and skill intensive services the better educated entrepreneur group is found to be utilizing effectively both its financial and human capital inputs

primary commodity prices manufactured goods prices and the terms of trade of developing countries what the long run shows the authors revisit in this article the empirical foundation of the alleged secular decline in the prices of primary commodities relative to those of manufactures they use a newly constructed index of commodity prices and two modified indexes of manufactured good prices and find that from 1900 to 1986 the relative prices of all primary commodities fell on trend by 0 5 percent a year and those of nonfuel primary commodities by 0 6 percent a year they thus confirm the sign but not the magnitude of the trend implicit in the work of prebisch but even the more limited secular decline shown by their relative price indexes may be magnified by an incomplete account of quality improvements in manufactures they then show that the evolution of terms of trade of nonfuel primary commodities is not the same as that of the net barter terms of trade of non oil exporting developing countries finally they find that despite the decline that has probably occurred during the current century in the terms of trade of nonfuel primary commodities the purchasing power of total exports of these products has increased considerably similarly the fall that may have occurred after world war ii in the net barter terms of trade of developing countries seems to have been more than compensated for by the steady improvement in their income terms of trade

the role of venture capital in financing small business abstract venture capital is a primary and unique source of funding for small firms because these firms with sales and or assets under 5 million have very limited access to traditional capital markets venture capital is a substitute but not a perfect substitute for trade credit bank credit and other forms of financing for small firms small businesses are not likely to be successful in attracting venture capital unless the firms have the potential to provide extraordinary returns to the venture capitalist this study provides an analysis of a survey of venture capital firms that participate in small business financing the survey participants are venture capital firms that were 1986 members of the national venture capital association nvca the largest venture capital association in the united states the average size of the venture capital firms responding to the survey is 92 million dollars in assets with a range from 600 thousand to 500 million twenty three percent of the respondents have total assets below 20 million and 27 have assets above 100 million the venture capitalists investment assets held in small firms delineate the supply of venture capital to small firms sixty three of the 92 venture capitalists have more than 70 of their assets invested in small firms the venture capitalists were asked how their investment plans might change with changes in the tax law that were projected in the spring of 1986 fifty four percent expected to increase their investments in small firms and 38 did not expect to change these activities venture capitalists are very selective in allocating their resources the average number of annual requests that a venture capitalist receives is 652 and the median number is 500 only 11 5 of the respondents receive more than 1 000 proposals per year

agricultural incentives in developing countries measuring the effect of sectoral and economywide policies the impact of sector specific direct and economywide indirect policies on agricultural incentives for 18 developing countries for the period 1975 84 are estimated the direct effect is measured by the proportional difference between the producer price and the border price adjusting for distribution storage transport and other marketing costs the indirect effect has two components 1 the impact of the unsustainable portion of the current account deficit and of industrial protection policies on the real exchange rate and thus on the price of agricultural commodities relative to nonagricultural nontradables and 2 the impact of industrial protection policies on the relative price of agricultural commodities to that of nonagricultural tradable goods the authors found that a in almost all cases the direct effect is equivalent to a tax on exportable goods and to a subsidy for importables b the indirect effect also taxes agriculture and dominates the direct effect and c the direct policies for both importables and exportables stabilize domestic producer prices

multistage selection and the financing of new ventures using a random sample of 221 new swedish ventures initiated in 1998 we examine why some new ventures are more likely than others to successfully be awarded capital from external sources we examine venture financing as a staged selection process in which two sequential selection events systematically winnow the population of ventures and influence which ventures receive financing for a venture to receive external financing its founders must first select it as a candidate for external funding and then a financier must fund it we find evidence that founders select ventures as candidates for external finance based on their perceptions of market competition market growth and employment growth while financiers base funding decisions on objective verifiable indicators of venture development such as the completion of organizing activities marketing activities and the level of sales of the venture our findings have implications for venture financing and evolutionary theories of social processes

the benefits of lending relationships evidence from small business data this paper empirically examines how ties between a firm and its creditors affect the availability and cost of funds to the firm we analyze data collected in a survey of small firms by the small business administration the primary benefit of building close ties with an institutional creditor is that the availability of financing increases we find smaller effects on the price of credit attempts to widen the circle of relationships by borrowing from multiple lenders increases the price and reduces the availability of credit in sum relationships are valuable and appear to operate more through quantities rather than prices

agriculture in the uruguay round interests of developing countries agriculture has been favored and protected in developed countries while trade policies in developing countries frequently support industry at the expense of exportables and unprotected importables in agriculture this protection constrains expansion of temperate and subtropical agricultural exports from developing countries several studies have estimated the effects of liberalization of trade restrictions on world prices export earnings and import costs while developing countries generally would benefit from having the agricultural policies of the most powerful countries bound by international rules on trade there are differences among the developing countries as to which products should be liberalized even if such conflicts did not exist politically feasible means to obtain such compliance are elusive the potentially most feasible approaches for developing countries to obtain some measure of liberalization in the uruguay round of trade negotiations are discussed