household carbon inequality in urban china its sources and determinants designing mitigation policies for households requires knowledge of household carbon distributions this study surveys the household carbon inequality in urban china and analyzes its sources and determinants using weighted household survey data different from existing literatures studying carbon inequality on the international or regional level we focus on the household aspect and first survey its characteristics by some comparisons by ascribing household carbon emissions calculated by the consumer lifestyle approach to several consumption categories with the method of gini coefficient decomposition we find that residential consumption with high carbon intensity is the most important source of household carbon inequality in urban china food consumption and the consumption of educational cultural and recreational services are the next largest sources because of the consumed quantities or carbon intensity the application of shapley decomposition shows the determinants of household carbon inequality in urban china and their contributions which are household demographic characteristics 59 74 household employment and income 24 31 household burdens 8 00 and household assets and financial plans 7 95 the policy implications of these results are also discussed

money supply announcements and real interest rates abstract current research on the relation between money and asset prices focuses on the reaction of asset prices to money supply announcements in this paper we use the real interest observed in the u k index linked bond market and the nominal interest rate observed in the nominal bond market to study the reaction of real interest rates and expected inflation to money surprises we find that monetary surprises have a strong effect on inflationary expectations we also find some evidence of a positive reaction of long term real interest rates to the m3 announcement

money supply announcements and interest rates another view in this paper i use a new approach to analyze the impact of money supply announcements on the bond market before 1980 the only available work on this subject consisted of a few unpublished papers by conrad 1978 sivesind 1978 and urich 1979 1 more recently published papers by grossman 1981 and urich and wachtel 1981 have appeared roley 1982 extends the grossman study to incorporate data after the federal reserve policy statement of october 6 1979 both grossman and urich and wachtel are primarily concerned with the question of money market efficiency using survey data made available by money market services of san francisco and data on treasury bill yields each finds that the market responds quickly to unanticipated changes in the money supply but that anticipated changes have no effect on interest rates in addition grossman finds that when he adds other variables such as past changes in the money

why interest rates react to money announcements an explanation from the foreign exchange market abstract when the fed announces a money supply greater than had been expected interest rates rise why one explanation is that the market raises its estimate of the future rates of money growth and inflation and bids up nominal interest rates we offer contrary evidence on such days the dollar appreciates not depreciates an alternative explanation is that the market perceives the change in the money stock as a transitory fluctuation that the fed will reverse in the future the anticipated future tightening raises today s real interest rate causes a capital inflow and appreciates the dollar the result in fact observed

carbon inequality at the sub national scale a case study of provincial level inequality in co2 emissions in china 1997 2007 abstract this study asks whether sub national inequalities in carbon dioxide co2 emissions mirror international patterns in carbon inequality using the case study of china several studies have examined global level carbon inequality however such approaches have not been used on a sub national scale this study examines inter provincial inequality in co2 emissions within china using common measures of inequality coefficient of variation gini index theil index to analyze provincial level data derived from the ipcc reference approach for the years 1997 2007 it decomposes co2 emissions inequality into its inter regional and intra regional components patterns of per capita co2 emissions inequality in china appear superficially similar to though slightly lower than per capita income inequality however decomposing these inequalities reveals different patterns while inter provincial income inequality is highly regional in character inter provincial co2 emissions inequality is primarily intra regional while apparently similar global patterns in co2 emissions are not mirrored at the sub national scale

future inequality in co2 emissions and the impact of abatement proposals this paper analyzes future carbon emissions inequality using a group decomposition of the gini index business as usual projections to the year 2100 for 135 countries show inequality in per capita emissions declines slowly next the impact on emissions levels and inequality of the kyoto protocol and other abatement proposals for annex ii countries in 2010 are measured with a focus on the gap narrowing and reranking effects substantial reranking of per capita emissions between annex ii and non annex ii countries will not occur unless the former reduce their emissions by at least 50 versus 1990 levels and the latter continue growing unabated

international inequalities in per capita co2 emissions a decomposition methodology by kaya factors in this paper we provide a methodology for decomposing international inequalities in per capita co2 emissions into kaya multiplicative factors and two interaction terms we use the theil index of inequality and show that this decomposition methodology can be extended for analyzing between and within group inequality components we can thus analyze the factors behind inequalities in per capita co2 emissions across countries between groups of countries and within groups of countries the empirical illustration for international data suggests some points firstly international inequality in per capita co2 emissions is mainly attributable to inequalities in per capita income levels which helps to explain its recent reduction while differences in carbon intensity of energy and energy intensity have made a less significant contribution this result is strongly influenced by the performance of china and india secondly the between group inequality component which is the biggest component is also largely explained by the income factor thirdly the within group inequality component increased slightly during the period something mainly due to the change in the income factor and the interaction terms in a few regions

assessing global co2 emission inequality from consumption perspective an index decomposition analysis abstract co2 emission inequality among countries is a key issue in international climate negotiations in view of the growing popularity of the consumption based emission accounting system in climate policy studies analyzing the emission inequality from the consumption perspective can help policymakers design emission abatement scenarios that are fairer to all parties using a new approach based on the theil index and the index decomposition analysis ida technique this paper examines global per capita consumption based emission inequality in 1995 2009 the sources and determinants of both the status and evolution of the emission inequality are quantified the empirical results show that the global emission inequality was sourced mainly from the emerging economies particularly china and india the global inequality decreased at an accelerating rate during the period studied the narrowing disparity among countries in per capita consumption level drove while the expanding disparity in consumption based emission intensity largely hindered the inequality reduction comparing the consumption based emission inequality with that under the production based principle reveals that the latter partly masked the inequality in the distribution of global co2 emissions through production outsourcing more detailed results and discussions are presented

distributional aspects of emissions in climate change integrated assessment models the recent failure of copenhagen negotiations shows that concrete actions are needed to create the conditions for a consensus over global emission reduction policies a wide coalition of countries in international climate change agreements could be facilitated by the perceived fairness of rich and poor countries of the abatement sharing at international level in this paper i use two popular climate change integrated assessment models to investigate the path and decompose components and sources of future inequality in the emissions distribution results prove to be consistent with previous empirical studies and robust to model comparison and show that gaps in gdp across world regions will still play a crucial role in explaining different countries contributions to global warming

the effect of unanticipated money on the money and foreign exchange markets abstract a number of studies have attempted to determine why unanticipated increases in the money supply are positively correlated with money market interest rates by examining the response of the foreign exchange market to unanticipated changes in the money stock they have found a significant positive relationship between unanticipated increases in the money supply and the foreign exchange value of the dollar and have interpreted this as evidence for the anticipated liquidity effect hypothesis however these results support this hypothesis only if both markets respond simultaneously to unanticipated changes in money this paper examines the cross market consistency of the response using six bilateral exchange rates and the treasury bill rate all measured over a narrow time interval the results show that in general these markets do not respond simultaneously to money announcements

why interest rates rise when an unexpectedly large money stock is announced ment of an unexpectedly large growth in the money supply will lead to an immediate increase in interest rates this announcement effect is often taken as confirmation of the monetarist view that the way to bring down interest rates even in the short run is to reduce the rate of money growth in this paper we provide an alternative explanation of the announcement effect that is consistent with the keynesian view that in the short run the way to bring down interest rates is to expand the money supply we do not address the issue of inflationary expectations in a formal way though in the long run we would expect the well known fisher effect to hold looking closely at the announcement effect it is clear that whatever may be the true short run relationship between money growth and interest rates it cannot be inferred from a simple correlation of announcements of changes in the money stock with the resulting changes in interest rates this is because of several properties of the announcement phenomenon that we capture in the model

us money announcements and covered interest parity the case of japan abstract this paper examines the effects of us money announcements on dollar and yen denominated securities in their respective onshore markets the effects are consdered over several periods corresponding to possible us and japanese policy regimes the consistency of the responses is further examined by testing whether the responses of dollar denominated securities yen denominated securities the spot yen dollar exchange rate and the forward yen dollar exchange rate violate covered interest parity given the results of previous studies the evidence suggests that restrictions on capital mobility in japan have not allowed complete international integration of japanese financial markets

the response of short term interest rates to weekly money announcements each friday at 4 10 p m est the federal reserve announces its estimate of the narrowly defined money stock for the statement week ending nine days previously these money announcements have become one of the main events in financial markcts if for no other reason than the fact that significant movements in interest rates have been associated with large unanticipated changes in the money stock moreover since the late 1970s interest rate fluctuations in response to money stock announcements have dramatically increased over the 1l 2 hour intervals spanning the weekly announcements for example the variance of the change in the threemonth treasury bill yield in the three years since october 1979 is more than thirty times larger than that of the previous two year period l two factors may account for a large portion of the increased volatility of shortterm interest rates first on october 6 1979 the federal reserve adopted a reserve aggregate approach to monetary control replacing a procedure that emphasized stability of short term yields second despite the greater emphasis placed on monetary control the variance of weekly announced changes in the money stock has risen by about 70 percent since late 1979 in turn if greater volatility of announced changes makes future changes more difficult to predict the volatility of unanticipated weekly changes in money would have also increased 2 thus if financial markets are efficient and if weekly money announcements contain relevant information larger unanticipated changes in money may have caused larger fluctuations in interest rates

monetary policy surprises and interest rates choosing between the inflation revelation and excess sensitivity hypotheses author affiliation willem thorbecke george mason university and senior fellow research institute of economy trade and industry 1 3 1 kasumigaseki chiyoda ku tokyo 100 8901 japan tel 81 3 35018286 e mail wthorbec gmu edu corresponding author hanjiang zhang department of finance mccombs school of business university of texas at austin 1 university station b6000 austin tx 78712 usa e mail hanjiang zhang mccombs utexas edu acknowledgment we thank the co editor kent kimbrough two anonymous referees and seminar participants at the research institute of economy trade and industry for many helpful comments we also thank andrew swiston for generously providing us data on unexpected changes in the federal funds rate target 1 introductionwhy do increases in the federal reserve s fed s target for the federal funds rate raise interest rates on long term treasury securities one might expect that contractionary monetary policy would raise short term rates because of a liquidity effect and reduce long term rates by lowering expected inflation yet cook and hahn 1989 reported that increases in the fed s target for the federal funds rate from september 1974 to september 1979 raised interest rates at all horizons similarly kuttner 2001 found that unanticipated increases in the federal funds rate target over the june 1989 to february 2000 period increased interest rates at all maturities one interpretation of the results of cook and hahn 1989 and kuttner 2001 is that contractionary monetary policy raises longer term real interest rates the nominal interest rate equals the real interest rate plus the expected inflation rate if contractionary monetary policy lowers expected inflation or leaves it unchanged then evidence that it increases the nominal interest rate implies that it must also be increasing the real interest rate romer and romer 2000 provided an alternative explanation for these findings they showed that the fed has substantially more information about future inflation than is available from commercial forecasts their results imply that the optimal strategy for individuals with access to both the fed s forecasts and commercial forecasts would be to rely exclusively on the fed s forecasts they also demonstrated that federal reserve policy actions reveal some of the fed s private information about inflation an increase in the federal funds rate target could thus increase interest rates by raising expectations of future inflation gurkaynak sack and swanson 2005a presented evidence indicating that increases in the federal funds rate target have the opposite effect lowering expected inflation from 1990 2002 they found that unexpected increases in the funds rate target lower the one year forward rate 10 years ahead they also found that real long term forward rates derived from inflation indexed treasury securities do not respond to monetary policy surprises while the compensation for inflation responds with a significant negative coefficient to positive innovations in the federal funds rate target they interpreted these findings to mean that surprise increases in the federal funds rate target lower future expected inflation their conclusion is thus exactly the opposite of romer and romer s 2000 information revelation explanation ellingsen and soderstrom 2001 presented a model that encompasses the models of romer and romer 2000 and gurkaynak sack and swanson 2005a in their model unanticipated changes in the central bank rate can occur because the central bank has private information about the economy or because the central bank changes its preferences for inflation stabilization relative to output stabilization romer and romer focused on the first effect and gurkaynak sack and swanson focused on the second campbell 1995 noted that the effect of funds rate increases on inflation expectations should depend on the fed s credibility in fighting inflation

decomposing inequality in co2 emissions the role of primary energy carriers and economic sectors emission inequality across countries and the contribution of the energy mix and the sectoral composition of a country s energy use are of central importance to the climate debate we analyze the evolution of inequality in global co2 per capita emissions using both historical data on energy related co2 emissions and future emission scenarios generated with the integrated assessment model remind within our sample of 90 countries the results indicate that the gini index declined from about 0 6 in 1971 to slightly above 0 4 in 2008 a decomposition of the gini index of total emissions into primary energy carriers indicates that this reduction is mainly attributed to declining shares of emissions from coal peat and oil in total emissions and decreasing emission inequality within all fossil primary energy sources from the perspective of economic sectors the decline in overall inequality is almost entirely due to a decline of the contribution of emissions from manufacturing construction our analysis also suggests that an equally spread emission reduction from any one source would not have a major impact on overall emission inequality the analysis of future scenario data indicates that climate policy reduces absolute emission inequality while inducing drastic progressive emission reductions in all regions

stoking the fires co2 emissions and economic growth abstract we examine the relationship between economic development and carbon dioxide emissions a greenhouse gas central to global warming predictions estimates derived from global panel data suggest a diminishing marginal propensity to emit mpe carbon dioxide as gdp per capita rises despite this global carbon dioxide emissions growth will continue at 1 8 percent per annum for the foreseeable future a result that is not sensitive to average output growth instead emissions growth continues because output and population will grow most rapidly in lower income nations with high mpes this latter feature emphasizes the distributional consequences of policies to reduce emissions

reducing global environmental inequality determining regional quotas for environmental burdens through systems optimisation abstract reducing inequality is essential for sustainable development yet our understanding of its many dimensions and driving forces is still limited here we study the global distribution of 25 environmental burdens encompassing natural resources water materials and land use and air emissions all related to activities underpinning human welfare we find large disparities in inequality levels across burdens and a general yet slow decline in inequality in the period 1995 2009 explained mostly by the faster economic growth of emerging economies acknowledging that allocation issues may hamper greater equality we propose a framework for an optimal allocation of quotas for environmental burdens respecting a maximum allowable inequality limit while ensuring a safe operation within the earth s ecological capacity our results shed light on the global distribution of environmental burdens and provide a roadmap for achieving a greater environmental equality using systems optimisation it is hoped that this work will trigger further discussion on the need to address environmental inequality currently missing in the sustainable development goals and open up new research avenues on the use of whole systems approaches in solving global sustainability problems

balance of trade announcements and movements in exchange rates there is a growing literature on the effect of economic news on foreign exchange rates the effects of weekly money supply announcements on exchange rates have been empirically investigated by a number of researchers over a variety of periods 1 2 3 4 7 11 12 13 the response of foreign exchange rates to other types of economic information has also been studied for example dornbusch 5 uses innovations in the current account cyclical factors and interest rates frenkel 10 uses innovations in interest rate differentials edwards 6 uses innovations in money real output and real interest rates most recently hardouvelis 14 studies the market response of three interest rates and seven exchange rates to economic news on fifteen economic aggregates including monetary announcements inflation rate announcements and announcements reflecting the stage of the business cycle this paper studies short run movements in foreign exchange rates to the commerce department s monthly announcements of the u s balance of merchandise trade it extends previous studies of foreign exchange response to economic news in three ways first by studying the response to the trade announcement which occurs two months after the month to which the announcement refers the paper provides a more precise measure of the response to the news content of trade related announcements than earlier studies this for instance is an improvement over dornbusch s 5 definition of current account news as the innovation in the actual oecd organization for economic co operation and development biannual current account estimates second the paper studies not only movements in spot rates to the announcement but calculates the movements in forward premiums to this information by studying the response in forward premiums to the merchandise trade announcements the paper examines whether the information in the announcements implies effects that operate through capital flows and interest rates in addition to responses that operate through the flow of merchandise trade

geographical spread of global emissions within country inequalities are large and increasing abstract in spite of the extensive literature on greenhouse gas emission inequalities at the world wide level most of the evidence so far has been based on country level data however the within country dimension matters for both the implementation and the policy formation of climate policies as a preliminary step towards a better understanding of within country inequalities this paper measures their extent for the two major greenhouse gases co2 and ch4 over the 1970 2008 period using theil index decompositions we show that within country inequalities account for the bulk of global inequality and tend to increase over the sample period in contrast with diminishing between country inequalities including differences across sectors reveals that between sector inequalities matter more than between country inequalities and between sector inequalities become the dominant source of global inequality at the end of the sample period in the co2 case finally estimated social tensions arising from the disconnection between emissions and future damages turn out to be increasing as soon as within country disparities are taken into account these orders of magnitude should be kept in mind while discussing the efficiency and fairness of alternative paths in combating global warming

deutsche mark dollar volatility intraday activity patterns macroeconomic announcements and longer run dependencies this paper provides a detailed characterization of the volatility in the deutsche mark dollar foreign exchange market using an annual sample of five minute returns the approach captures the intraday activity patterns the macroeconomic announcements and the volatility persistence arch known from daily returns the different features are separately quantified and shown to account for a substantial fraction of return variability both at the intraday and daily level the implications of the results for the interpretation of the fundamental driving forces behind the volatility process is also discussed the efficient market hypothesis contends that financial asset prices provide rational assessments of fundamental values and future payoffs by implication price changes should reflect the arrival and processing of all relevant new information however the proportion of return variability that can be ascribed to public news announcements is low for example cutler poterba and summers 1989 find that even the largest daily price changes in the stock market generally cannot be associated with any significant economic news 1 moreover proxies for the flow of public information e g the number of news items released by reuter s news service berry and hiowe 1994 or dow jones company mitchell and mulherin 1994 explain little of the overall variation thus if private information is ruled out proponents of rational price formation have to assert the existence of important news items

tradeable emission permits and the control of greenhouse gases this article reiterates the case for tradeable permits as a global policy option for limiting greenhouse gas emissions and considers the detailed design of a global tradeable permit regime emphasising the importance of the initial assignment of property rights and arguing that the relevant property rights in this case are the rights of every member of the world community to share in a sustainable global atmosphere and climate the allocation of permits should therefore be done on a per capita basis across the world community with the result that rents generated by the process of reducing carbon emissions would accrue to non polluters most of whom live in the south the international transfers of income and wealth implied by the proposed scheme are large but feasible there is therefore a real prospect that an international convention on carbon dioxide emissions could end the debt crisis and finance sustainable development in the south

the term structure spread and future changes in long and short rates in the g7 countries abstract according to the expectations hypothesis when the spread between long and short rates widens next quarter s long rate should rise in the united states however long rates decline instead of rising this anomaly is also present in canada the uk germany and japan four of the additional six g7 countries nevertheless in contrast to the us where long rates appear to overreact to expected future developments the anomalous short run movement of long rates in these other g7 countries is caused by an additive white noise error on long rates that does not materially affect the information in their term structure

measuring environmental inequality abstract this study presents alternative measures of environmental inequality in the 50 u s states for exposure to industrial air pollution we examine three methodological issues first to what extent are environmental inequality measures sensitive to spatial scale and population weighting second how do sensitivities to different segments of the overall distribution affect rankings by these measures third how do vertical and horizontal inter group inequality measures relate to each other we find substantive differences in rankings by different measures and conclude that no single indicator is sufficient for addressing the entire range of equity concerns that are relevant to environmental policy instead multiple measures are needed

exchange rates interest rates and money stock announcements a theoretical exposition abstract when the federal reserve announce a larger than anticipated weekly level of the us money stock m1 the dollar appreciates and short term interest rates increase because of an expected liquidity effect but long term interest rates and particularly long run forward interest rates increase because of an expected inflation effect the two effects are not mutually exclusive but coexist when market participants are not completely sure of the fed s policy rule and thus react in a weighted average manner with weights that reflect subjective probabilities about different federal reserve money growth policies

inequality in co2 emissions across countries and its relationship with income inequality a distributive approach this paper analyses the inequality in co2 emissions across countries and groups of countries and the relationship of this inequality with income inequality across countries for the period 1971 1999 the research employs the tools that are usually applied in income distribution analysis the methodology used here gives qualitative and quantitative information on some of the features of the inequalities across countries that are considered most relevant for the design and discussion of policies aimed at mitigating climate change the paper studies the relationship between co2 emissions and gdp and shows that income inequality across countries has been followed by an important inequality in the distribution of emissions this inequality has diminished mildly although the inequality in emissions across countries ordered in the increasing value of income inequality between rich and poor countries has diminished less than the simple inequality in emissions lastly the paper shows that the inequality in co2 emissions is mostly explained by the inequality between groups with different per capita income level the importance of the inequality within groups of similar per capita income is much lower and has diminished during the period especially in the low middle income group

do short term interest rate expectations respond to new information on monetary growth in recent years the importance of the role of the money stock has been increasingly emphasized in analysis and in fed policy making during the 1970 s the fed has established money stock targets and has sought to make the money supply conform to those targets in addition to concerns as to whether the targets of the fed are appropriate or not professional and public concern has been expressed about the relative successfulness of the fed in achieving short run and long run targets it has been suggested that money market reactions to the success or lack of success of the fed in achieving its targets influence interest rates the fed has often warned that short term variations in the money stock and failures to achieve the monthly tolerance ranges for the money stock may have no significance and that speculation based on such data is inappropriate nevertheless the notion that movements in interest rates may reflect expectations about the future course of money stock and the perceived targets of the fed appears to have achieved some acceptance and is worth empirical investigation 17 if expectations about the course of the money supply and surprises due to the actual unfolding path of the money supply produce changes in interest rate expectations that alter current interest rates there may result changes in real economic variables 15 this paper will specify and test the hypothesis that revisions in interest rates forecasts are systematically related to the market s forecast of monetary growth and subsequent unanticipated growth of the money stock section i posits a simple model of the structure of interest rates through which changes in interest rate expectations can be modeled

money supply announcements interest rates and foreign exchange abstract this paper presents a test of the joint hypothesis that money supply announcements affect the real interest rate and that changes in the real interest rate affect the exchange rate in the short run the test results are consistent with the joint hypothesis for example it is found that announcement of an unexpected jump in the money supply is accompanied by an increase in interest rates and an appreciation of the dollar if the rise in interest rates was entirely due to higher inflationary expectations the dollar should not appreciate

canadian weekly money supply announcements and financial market reactions in the first years of targeting a view of market perceptions of bank of canada policy this paper demonstrates using weekly data between 1976 and 1979 that unanticipated changes in the canadian money supply exerted a significant impact on the foreign exchange and bond markets during the first years of the bank of canada s policy of targeting m1 growth this finding which is perhaps surprising in light of the apparent volatility of weekly changes in the canadian money supply is consistent with the efficient markets paradigm after the empirical regularities are established an interpretation is offered that focuses on market perceptions of the reaction function of the bank of canada

reserves announcements and interest rates does monetary policy matter the author provides evidence on the perceived existence of strong liquidity effect the analysis is based on the response of the term structure of interest rates to the weekly federal reserve announcements of bank reserves during the post october 1979 period it is shown that unanticipated changes in the mix between borrowed and nonborrowed reserves cause expected real interest rates to change after the announcement because they provide information about a future change in the supply of money a precise model is developed and tested during subperiods of nonborrowed and borrowed reserves targeting by the fed

will history repeat itself economic convergence and convergence in energy use patterns in this paper a difference in differences estimator on panel data for 30 developing and 21 industrialized countries is employed over the period 1971 2005 to examine how patterns of energy use characterized by the consumption of primary energy carriers sectoral energy use and carbon emissions are changing in the process of economic development for the average developing country in our sample the results indicate that economic catch up has been accompanied by above average growth of the use of most primary energy carriers the consumption of final energy in most sectors and total co2 emissions for industrialized countries we find that economic growth is partially decoupled from energy consumption and that above average rates of economic growth were accompanied by larger improvements in energy efficiency these results emphasize the need to identify the relevant engines of economic growth their implications for energy use and possibilities to achieve low carbon growth centered on productivity and efficiency improvements rather than on capital accumulation

distribution of income and toxic emissions in maine united states inequality in two dimensions abstract ecological distribution refers to inequalities in the use of environmental sinks and sources this article explores one such dimension of ecological distribution that of toxic air emissions using data from the risk screening environmental indicators model and the united states census bureau i analyze the distribution of both environmental risk and income at the block group level in the state of maine the state of maine was chosen for its historical dependence upon natural resources as well as its economic and spatial heterogeneity results clearly indicate that the toxic air emissions are distributed much more unequally than is income and that those inequalities are reinforcing while not in itself an indication of environmental injustice such analyses may help us to rethink the assumption that there is a tradeoff between income and pollution

market response to the weekly money supply announcements in the 1970s the hypothesis that the weekly announcement of the money supply affects interest rates is examined the announcement effect is interpreted as a policy anticipation effect that is an unanticipated increase in the money supply leads to an increase in interest rates in anticipation of future tightening by the federal reserve estimates of this effect with proxies for the unanticipated change constructed from a survey of money supply forecasts and an arima model indicate that a financial markets respond very quickly to the announcement and b the response was largest when policymakers emphasized the importance of the monetary aggregates financial market participants are careful observers of the weekly money supply announcement and generally agree that the announcement often leads to changes in interest rates this occurs because the announcement leads market participants to revise their expectations both of future federal reserve policy actions and of future economic conditions in this paper we examine the response of yields on treasury bills to the announcement of the money supply and the extent to which that response has varied in the last ten years money supply announcements may affect market interest rates in three ways first actual expansion of the money supply leads to lower interest rates through a liquidity effect however rapid monetary growth which is not anticipated leads market participants to expect the federal reserve to counteract such growth in the future as a consequence there may be a policy anticipation effect which causes higher interest rates in anticipation of future tightening furthermore prolonged rapid monetary growth also creates inflation and inflationary expectations which lead to higher interest rates thus there may exist a third effect the inflationary expectations effect which also leads to higher interest rates our interest in this paper is in the immediate market response to the weekly announcement of the money supply which as we argue below is most likely to be a policy anticipation effect the policy anticipation effect is best described by example suppose that the announced change in the money supply exceeds that which was expected by

polarization of co2 emissions in china s electricity sector production versus consumption perspectives abstract the inter provincial inequality of per capita co2 emissions in china s electricity sector means that their responsibilities for co2 emission reduction are different considering the spatial separation of co2 emissions in power production and consumption with respect to the large scale inter provincial electricity trade in china this paper innovatively investigates the sub national inequality and polarization degree of per capita co2 emissions in china s electric power sector from the perspectives of both production and consumption the overall tendencies of the sub national polarization degrees of per capita co2 emissions embodied in the both electric power consumption and production in china show an increasing trend the results indicate that the polarization distribution of per capita co2 emissions is still one of the important factors leading to difficulties in achieving the new reduction arrangements the evolution of the bi polarization analysis shows that the grouping results of per capita co2 emissions are different from production and consumption perspectives as well as the high and low emission groups have significantly different characteristics the inequality and polarization degree of per capita co2 emissions in china s electric power sector have changed as the co2 emissions embodied in the electricity trade had been taken into account one size fits all strategies are unlikely to be successful in advancing the provincial cooperation on co2 emissions reduction

the relation between narrative and money market indicators of monetary policy this paper studies the relation between narrative based indicators of monetary policy and widely used money market indicators of monetary policy three principal findings emerge first changes in monetary policy as measured by the narrative based policy indices are associated with persistent changes in the levels of m2 and the monetary base in contrast changes in the narrative policy indicators lead to transitory changes in short term interest rates nonborrowed reserves and the spread between the six month commercial paper rate and the three month treasury bill rate third these findings are generally robust across different narrative based policy indices

money supply announcements and the ex ante volatility of asset prices previous empirical studies have documented more volatile money grow th and money surprises more volatile asset price changes and increased responsiveness of asset prices to money surprises since the october 1 979 change in fed policy this paper studies the associations between money announcements and the ex ante volatility of asset prices in th e recent past results indicate that revisions of ex ante asset price volatility as measured from prices of stock index government debt gold and foreign currency options are significantly correlated with the surprise component of the weekly m1 release there is also evidence that money releases reduce volatility by resolving uncertainty copyright 1988 by ohio state university press

anticipated inflation in a monetary economy with endogenous growth this paper makes a new attempt to investigate the role of anticipatedmonetary growth in economic growth combining the barro 1990 rebelo 1991 type endogenous growth model with sidrauski s 1967 framework we show that the pre announcement of money supply behaviour may have significant effects on the rate of growth during the transition process the key factor indetermining adjustment patterns of the economy to anticipated monetary changes is the degree of relative risk aversion however changes in the rate of monetary growth do not affect the rate of long run growth regardless of the degree of relative risk aversion

decomposing inequality in energy related co2 emissions by source and source increment the roles of production and residential consumption abstract using provincial data on energy related co2 emissions in china from 1997 to 2014 and the co2 emission gini coefficient ceg this study evaluates china s spatial inequality in energy related co2 emissions further we decompose this inequality and its variation from the perspectives of production and residential energy consumption using the source decomposition and source increment decomposition methods this paper presents a new ceg source increment decomposition method that can achieve complete decomposition the results reveal a downward trend in china s overall production sector and residential sector co2 emissions inequality although the gini coefficient of co2 emissions from the residential sector is larger than that from the production sector the contribution of the latter to the overall ceg is higher the impacts of the spatial inequality of co2 emissions from china s production and residential sectors depend on the type of energy the concentration effect is the primary factor responsible for inducing changes in china s overall and production sector co2 emissions inequality but it is not the only dominant factor for the residential sector co2 emissions inequality

the policy anticipation hypothesis and the expected inflation hypothesis some new evidence using index linked bonds abstract using price index linked and conventional bonds issued by the uk government estimates of expected inflation and the expected real interest rate are derived these estimates are employed to investigate the relationship between components of the nominal interest rate and surprise monetary change the empirical results support the expected inflation hypothesis rather than the policy anticipation hypothesis

market perceptions of federal reserve policy and the weekly monetary announcements abstract in october 1979 the federal reserve altered its operating procedures emphasizing control of the growth rate of the money stock was the fed able to gain credibility in the market the paper investigates this question by examining the reactions of spot and expected future exchange rates foreign interest rates and long run domestic forward interest rates to the weekly federal reserve announcements of m l both before and after october 1979 the empirical evidence points out that the fed did gain credibility but was unable to establish full credibility the market reactions are consistent with the hypothesis that market participants attached a positive probability to the event that the fed may at some point in the future abandon its money stock targets

the short run volatility of money stock targeting abstract the altered allocations of money market volatility obtained by alternative monetary policy procedures are illustrated by stochastic simulations of a staff monthly model the results indicate the nature of the tradeoff between short run volatility in the money stock and in the funds rate that is available to money stock targeting procedures

international ecological footprint inequality a methodological review and some results scarcities of environmental services are no longer merely a remote hypothesis consequently analysis of their inequalities between nations becomes of paramount importance for the achievement of sustainability this paper aims on the one hand at revising methodological aspects of the inequality measurement of certain environmental data and on the other at extending the scarce empirical evidence relating to the international distribution of ecological footprint ef most of the techniques currently important in the literature are revised and then tested on ef data with interesting results we consider the underlying properties of different inequality indices those indices which fit best with environmental inequality measurements are cv 2 and ge 2 because of their neutrality property subgroup and source decompositions are also discussed from a methodological perspective empirically this paper contributes to the environmental inequality measurement of ef this inequality has been quite stable subgroup decomposition by using exogenous country groups world bank classification conclude that between group inequality explains almost the totality of international ef inequality source decomposition warns of the dangers of confining co 2 emissions reduction to crop based energies because of the implications for basic needs satisfaction

the impact of monetary announcements on forward interest rates movements in term premia or expected future rates abstract evidence is presented on how the response of forward interest rates to money supply and monetary base announcements is decomposed into movements in term premia and expected future interest rates a significant movement of each component is found for at least one sample period

the building blocks of international ecological footprint inequality a regression based decomposition this paper carries out an empirical decomposition of international inequality in the ecological footprint with a view to quantifying the extent of the contribution of explanatory variables such as countries affluence economic structure demographic characteristics climate and technology using data for the period 1993 2007 the regression based inequality decomposition methodology we use allows us to extend the results obtained in standard environmental impact regressions stirpat models and to deal with an often neglected aspect of such models that of equity within generations the results obtained point towards the prioritization of policies which take into account both future and present generations in this regard economic redistribution should be considered as a primary environmental policy

the changing influence of money and monetary policy on exchange rates foreign exchange dealers said the american currency got an additional boost after the federal reserve reported that the nation s money supply rose 700 million in the latest week a development that is likely to put upward pressure on interest rates most economists had been expecting a decline in the money supply figures the wall street journal 25 january 1982 14 i introduction the importance of the linkage between money and asset prices such as interest rates and exchange rates is now well understood friedman 1990 12 writes given the familiar dependence of imports and exports on real exchange rates together with the dollar s evident relationship to interest rates the combination of a larger foreign sector in the u s economy and flexible exchange rates has clearly opened new avenues for monetary policy to affect economic activity however the precise nature of the relationship between money and exchange rates has long been a topic for research in international economics with the adoption of a system of floating exchange rates by most of the industrialized countries in march 1973 and the development of the rational expectations efficient markets hypotheses attempts to model observed fluctuations in exchange rates have focused on incorporating the important role of expectations of particular interest to the research in this paper is the dornbusch 1976 overshooting model which provided the structural foundation for the work of engel and frankel 1984 in the money announcements literature in the money announcements literature researchers employed unanticipated money announcements defined as the difference between announced and expected m1 to examine the linkage between money and asset prices as hakkio and pearce 1985 point out the research on foreign exchange rates in this laboratory was motivated by mussa s 1979 empirical findings in support of the efficient markets theory i e changes in exchange rates are unpredictable and are largely the result of the impact of new information on expectations in this literature researchers commonly regressed changes in the exchange rate on unanticipated money over sample periods which coincided with different policy regimes at the federal reserve to determine if the coefficient on unanticipated money say b sub 1 varied from one policy regime to another overall their findings uncover a significant link between unanticipated money and exchange rates and the size sign and significance of b sub 1 varies from one sample period to another 1 while suggestive the apparent link between changes in b sub 1 and changes in fed policy regimes is difficult to evaluate absent a model which formally incorporates such a link 2 thus my objective in this paper is to develop a basic theoretical empirical link between fluctuations in b sub 1 and changes in fed policy regimes i begin by extending the important work of engel and frankel 1984 in section ii to incorporate a policy feedback parameter g sub 1 in the money supply process which will represent the rational expectation of the type of monetary control regime in place at the federal reserve at the time of a money announcement it is shown that the magnitude of the response of exchange rates to an unanticipated announcement is mainly driven by agents expectations of the federal reserve s response to the deviation of the actual money supply from a pre specified target in section iii the time varying response of the dollar german mark exchange rate to weekly unanticipated money announcements b sub 1t and the time varying policy feedback parameter g sub 1t which reflects the adjustment of the federal funds rate to money away from target are estimated on a weekly basis using these estimates the variation of the coefficient b sub 1t vis a vis the changes in g sub 1t is examined over the january 1978 to december 1982 sample period the results provide considerable support for the hypothesized link between parameters b

explanatory factors of co2 per capita emission inequality in the european union the design of european mitigation policies requires a detailed examination of the factors explaining the unequal emissions in the different countries this research analyzes the evolution of inequality in co2 emissions per capita in the european union eu 27 in the period 1990 2009 and its explanatory factors for this purpose we decompose the theil index of inequality into the contributions of the different kaya factors the decomposition is also applied to the inequality between and within groups of countries north europe south europe and east europe the analysis shows an important reduction in inequality to a large extent due to the smaller differences between groups and because of the lower contribution of the energy intensity factor the importance of the gdp per capita factor increases and becomes the main explanatory factor however within the different groups of countries the carbonization index appears to be the most relevant factor in explaining inequalities the policy implications of the results are discussed

the effect of relative monetary surprises on spot exchange rates this paper examines the hypothetical relationship between us and canadian monetary surprises and the behaviour of us canadian spot exchange rates past studies have found that positive us monetary surprises were correlated with an appreciating us dollar in foreign exchange markets in this paper it is argued that monetary surprises in the us must be measured relative to foreign monetary innovation rather than in the conventional absolute sense when examining their impact on exchange markets rational investors consider expected returns and risk differentials in the us and local markets jointly in determining whether to be net buyers or sellers of us dollars the monetary actions of both the fed and the central bank operating in the local foreign economy will be considered in the foreign exchange market because of the close synchronization between the weekly money supply announcements in canada and the us it is possible to examine whether the relative or absolute us monetary surprise is more signifi

analysis of the international distribution of per capita co2 emissions using the polarization concept abstract the concept of polarization is linked to the extent that a given distribution leads to the formation of homogeneous groups with opposing interests this concept which is basically different from the traditional one of inequality is related to the level of inherent potential conflict in a distribution the polarization approach has been widely applied in the analysis of income distribution the extension of this approach to the analysis of international distribution of co 2 emissions is quite useful as it gives a potent informative instrument for characterizing the state and evolution of the international distribution of emissions and its possible political consequences in terms of tensions and the probability of achieving agreements in this paper we analyze the international distribution of per capita co 2 emissions between 1971 and 2001 through the adaptation of the polarization concept and measures we find that the most interesting grouped description deriving from the analysis is a two groups one which broadly coincide with annex b and non annex b countries of the kyoto protocol which shows the power of polarization analysis for explaining the generation of groups in the real world the analysis also shows a significant reduction in international polarization in per capita co 2 emissions between 1971 and 1995 but not much change since 1995 which might indicate that polarized distribution of emission is still one of the important factors leading to difficulties in achieving agreements for reducing global emissions

the causal factors of international inequality in hbox co _ 2 emissions per capita a regression based inequality decomposition analysis this paper uses the possibilities provided by the regression based inequality decomposition fields in res labor econ 22 1 38 2003 to explore the contribution of different explanatory factors to international inequality in hbox co 2 emissions per capita in contrast to previous emissions inequality decompositions which were based on identity relationships this methodology does not impose any a priori specific relationship thus it allows an assessment of the contribution to inequality of different relevant variables in short the paper appraises the relative contributions of affluence sectoral composition demographic factors and climate the analysis is applied to selected years of the period 1993 2007 the results show the important though decreasing share of the contribution of demographic factors as well as a significant contribution of affluence and sectoral composition

the information content of weekly money supply announcements this paper analyzes the information content of weekly money supply announcements and the use of this information in the market determination of interest rates a short term rational expectations model of the financial market is constructed which incorporates the reaction of the federal reserve to deviations from target money supply and provides a context for analyzing the impact of announcements in the model the federal reserve attempts to maintain target growth rates in the money supply by compensating for past deviations from target announcements which contain an unanticipated movement in the money supply lead the public to expect that the federal reserve will change the rate of growth in the short run to compensate the revision of expectations about future short term money supply leads the public to revise their expectations about short term interest rates the implications of the model are empirically tested using data from a survey of expected changes in the money supply and u s treasury bill data the results support the implications of the model that is weekly money supply announcements do contain new information for the market determination of interest rates and it is only the unanticipated component of the announcement which is important