the neolithic revolution from a price theoretic perspective article i nfo the adoption of agriculture during the neolithic period triggered the first demographic explosion in history when fertility returned to its original level agriculturalists were more numerous more poorly nourished and worked longer hours than their hunter gatherer ancestors we develop a dynamic price theoretic model that rationalizes these events in the short run people are lured into agriculture by the increased labor productivity of both adults and children in the long run the growth in population overrides the productivity gains and the later generations of agriculturalists end up being worse off than the hunter gatherers counter intuitively the increase in the labor productivity of children causes the long run reduction in welfare in the long run the increase in adult labor productivity only contributes to population growth 2010 elsevier b v all rights reserved

on the early holocene foraging to early agriculture we consider a world in which the mode of food production foraging or agriculture is endogenous and in which technology grows exogenously within a model of coalition formation we allow individuals to form co operative communities bands of foragers or farmers rationally at the lowest levels of technology equilibrium entails the grand coalition of foragers a co operative structure which avoids over exploitation of the environment but at a critical state of technology the co operative structure breaks down through an individually rational splintering of the band at this stage there can be an increase in work and through the over exploitation of the environment a food crisis in the end technological growth may lead to a one way transition from foraging to agriculture

a model of urban demography this study develops an overlapping generations model that involves the endogenous determination of demographic and city structure to fully analyze the social and natural changes in city populations we provide conditions under which the model exhibits the spatial features of demography observed in urban areas city centres have a lower total fertility rate than suburbs and larger cities have a lower total fertility rate than smaller cities through calibration we also show that spatial factors have a significant impact on demographic characteristics and city growth resume un modele de demographie urbaine cette etude developpe un modele de generations qui se chevauchent qui genere la determination endogene de la demographie et de la structure urbaine pour analyser pleinement les changements sociaux et culturels des populations urbaines on presente les conditions qui font que le modele genere les caracteristiques spatiales de la demographie observee dans les zones urbaines le centre ville avec un taux de fecondite plus faible que les banlieues et les grandes villes arborant une fecondite totale plus faible que les petites villes a l aide de calibration on montre que les facteurs spatiaux ont un impact significatif sur les caracteristiques demographiques et la croissance des villes

sex equality and growth abstract we set up a model of economic and demographic long run development where inequality in income and reproductive success polygynous mating plays a central role the model generates a slow and gradual compression of the income gap between landholders and landless together with rising levels of human capital this process spurts at some stage as society endogenously transits into sustained growth simultaneously inequality in income and reproductive success drops society becomes monogamous

intensive and extensive margins of fertility capital accumulation and economic welfare abstract this paper investigates the impact of low fertility on long term capital accumulation and economic welfare we find that the impact differs depending on whether the low fertility arises from a decrease in the fertility of mothers the intensive margin of fertility or the motherhood rate the extensive margin of fertility we show that an increase in the fertility of mothers decreases the capital stock and economic welfare conversely we identify a u shaped relationship between the extensive margin of fertility and the capital stock because of the existence of two opposing effects such that the decline in fertility may reduce economic welfare furthermore we show that an intragenerational income redistribution policy can eliminate the welfare loss resulting from the incomplete market

climatic fluctuations and the diffusion of agriculture this research examines the climatic origins of the diffusion of neolithic agriculture across countries and archaeological sites the theory suggests that a foraging society s history of climatic shocks shaped the timing of its adoption of farming specifically as long as climatic disturbances did not lead to a collapse of the underlying resource base the rate at which hunter gatherers were climatically propelled to experiment with their habitats determined the accumulation of tacit knowledge complementary to farming consistent with the proposed hypothesis the empirical investigation demonstrates that conditional on biogeographic endowments climatic volatility has a hump shaped effect on the timing of the adoption of agriculture

a bioeconomic view of the neolithic transition to agriculture adoption of agriculture at the expense of hunting and gathering was the dramatic precondition for all modern civilization recent data suggest that because of this transition humans initially were more disease prone smaller less nourished and shorter lived to explain why individuals chose agriculture over hunting and gathering this paper develops a simple model of the evolution of preferences over the quality and quantity of children as would have been generated by our long history as a species these preferences would have induced the choice of agriculture but also would have led to these otherwise puzzling health effects l adoption de l agriculture en remplacement de la chasse et de la cueillette a ete une condition prealable dramatique pour toutes les civilisations modernes des donnees recentes suggerent cependant que en consequence de cette transition les humains sont devenus dans les premiers temps apres la transition davantage vulnerables a la maladie ont vu leur esperance de vie diminuer ont ete moins bien nourris et sont devenus plus petits pourquoi alors est ce que des individus qui avaient le choix entre deux systemes economiques ont choisi l agriculture pour expliquer ce choix ce memoire developpe un modele simple de l evolution des preferences quant a la qualite et la quantite des enfants celles ci auraient ete engendrees par notre longue histoire en tant qu espece ces preferences auraient engendre le choix de l agriculture mais auraient aussi entraine d autre part ces effets deconcertants sur la sante

fertility choice land and the malthusian hypothesis in a standard overlapping generations growth model with a fixed amount of land and endogenous fertility the competitive economy converges to a steady state with a zero population growth rate and positive consumption per capita the malthusian hypothesis is interpreted as a positive statement about the relationship between population growth and consumption per capita when production exhibits diminishing returns to labor and there is a fixed amount of land essential for production even when individuals care only about the number of their children and not about their children s welfare the equilibrium is such that they eventually would choose to have only one child for each adult hence if malthus s positive check on population is the result of the response of optimizing agents to competitively determined prices malthus s pessimistic conjecture is not necessarily true even though his other assumptions hold from authors

international fish trade and exchange rates an application to the trade with salmon and fishmeal international fish trade is growing and fish exports represent an important source of foreign currency for many countries for a few countries the exports are also an essential part of the economy we revisit the seminal paper of richardson 1978 that addresses the issue of exchange rate pass through in commodity markets but in a multivariate cointegration framework the multivariate cointegration framework allows us to test common assumptions like exchange rate pass through leading price central markets and exogeneity of exchange rates this approach is particularly suited when studying markets for primary products we provide empirical examples using salmon imports to japan and fish meal exports from peru to germany

market structure for farmed salmon farmed salmon represents 20 of the total volume of the world s salmon supply norwegian salmon farmers produce more than 50 of the world s farmed salmon rapid expansion of this industry raises important issues about market model specification we specify and test models with varying degrees of market power including third degree price discrimination using norwegian export data from 1983 to 1988 results indicate that norwegian exporters have limited ability to engage in regional price discrimination although they may have discriminated after the third quarter of 1987 seasonal price discrimination however may have taken place because demand is more inelastic in periods when fresh wild caught salmon are unavailable

disentangling supply and demand shifts the impacts on world salmon price to understand price changes one must determine the relative impact of supply and demand shifts on price conditional on predetermined supply and demand elasticities we retrieve yearly shifts in regional supply and demand the relative impact on price from each supply and demand shift is determined through an equilibrium displacement model edm this procedure is applied on a yearly basis for the world salmon market in the period 2002 to 2011 the results indicate a large variation in demand and supply growth both over time and between regions while average annual price impacts from supply or demand shifts from most regions are not statistically significant price impacts from supply or demand shifts for specific periods are detected in all but one region this indicates that the use of smooth trend indicators is likely to be inappropriate for measuring supply and demand shifts and their impacts on price the procedure presented in this article can be a useful instrument for determining the relative im

an intergenerational model of population growth the problem of population growth has been only partially formulated in an intertemporal context therefore a link between population theory and economic growth theory is still missing this paper attempts to provide such a link by analyzing an intergenerational model of optimum population growth the model accommodates the idea that decisions on increases in population should consider the new population s quality of life this concept is elaborated upon in a static framework by gary becker and gregg lewis dennis de tray and robert willis other literature on population growth such as harold votey disregards this consideration altogether 2 more explicitly this paper assumes that the utility of each generation is a function of the level of its consumption and the number and utility of the newly born people we are thus led to consider the utility of an infinite number of generations this model differs from paul samuelson s intergenerational model of pure consumption in which the utility of each generation depends only on that generation s own consumption recently philip neher 1971 analyzed a model of fertility in primitive economies it is based on the assumption that parents use children as investments to insure future consumption needs neher s analysis focuses entirely on the pension motive for having children 3 our model assumes that fertility is determined so as to balance the parents welfare derived from additional children against that derived from the children s quality of life we first outline a general model of optimum population growth in order to discuss explicitly various economic aspects of population we use a simple case in the analysis section i sets up the basic model

multidimensional screening under nonlinear costs limits of standard approach abstract we generalize the usual screening approach and conditions for efficiency at the top and acyclic property from linear to fixed plus separable or concave costs and multidimensional commodities but under non concave costs like capacity constraints an example shows a cycle in the solution graph the cycle makes the standard screening solution non implementable and approach inadequate

effects of income growth and tariffs on the world salmon market the effects of income growth and tariffs on salmon prices production and trade flows are analysed using total elasticities derived from an equilibrium displacement model of the world salmon market results suggest the total income elasticity in world trade for salmon is about one which means imports worldwide will grow at about the same pace as world income however owing in part to policies that restrict supply response not all exporters will share evenly in this growth with uk producers benefiting the most and norwegian producers the least within importing countries imports are more responsive to income growth than is domestic production which means protectionist pressures are apt to increase with affluence us tariffs on imports from norway and chile are counterproductive in that they reduce world imports with little effect on the us price norway s feed quota reduces the efficacy of us tariffs makes imports less responsive to income and increases price volatility hence quota elimination m

slavery and other property rights the institution of slavery is found mostly at intermediate stages of agricultural development and less often among hunter gatherers and advanced agrarian societies we explain this pattern in a growth model with land and labor as inputs in production and an endogenously determined property rights institution the economy endogenously transits from an egalitarian state with equal property rights to a despotic slave society where the elite own both people and land thereafter it endogenously transits into a free labor society where the elite own the land but people are free

entertaining malthus bread circuses and economic growth we augment a simple malthusian model by allowing agents to consume something besides food whereas food in our case bread is both enjoyable and necessary for survival the other good circuses is pure entertainment it has absolutely no impact on survival but does enhance the quality of life with this very simple modification we show that whereas food supply may remain at subsistence technological change will have a great impact on the consumption of everything else most strikingly though the population remains bound by a malthusian constraint sustained improvements to living standards can no longer be ruled out we also argue that our model better fits the known historical facts the widely held belief that growth prior to the industrial revolution was flat is based largely on historical measures of food production although food supply throughout history may have been and for most individuals still is at or near subsistence levels technological advancements have brought greater convenience and comfort to wealthy and poor alike a possibility that malthus himself conceded in his later and often ignored work therefore our model not only describes historical growth patterns and demographic transitions better than traditional malthusian models but is also more in line with malthus later thinking jel classification numbers b10 i31 j1 n1 o30

peasants procreation and pensions producers and consumers durable goods yielding a stream of benefits which are compared with a stream of costs births occur if the present value of the benefits exceeds the present value of the costs the theory has been used by malthusians to rationalize the casual observation that population growth rates increase during the early stages of economic development and then perhaps fall later on as

from malthus to modern growth can epidemics explain the three regimes we model demographic and economic long run development in a setting where mortality is endogenous and subject to epidemic shocks the model replicates the full transition from malthusian stagnation to modern growth consistent with the historical facts the economy also passes an intermediate post malthusian phase where growth rates of both population and per capita income increase simultaneously as mortality rates fall and become less volatile the escape from the malthusian trap is the result of a series of mild epidemic shocks making it inevitable at some stage but its timing random calibrations show that it can differ by thousands of generations absent differences in exogenous parameters

the demand for salmon in france the effects of marketing and structural change two aspects of change in the market for salmon in france during the 1980s are the subject of econometric analysis first an hypothesis that a change in the distribution pattern for salmon with a larger share of the product traded further down the distribution channel has lead to more elastic demand is tested via demand analysis second the effects of advertising in expanding the salmon market is tested

bilateral trade elasticities this paper estimates income and price elasticities for bilateral world trade in addition to testing the properties of the error terms the dynamic specification and the assumption of parameter constancy the analysis presents the first application of the bank spectrum estimator to bilateral trade flows for all countries the paper finds that bilateral trade elasticities exhibit enough of a dispersion to suggest that the direction of trade is sensitive to changes in income and prices using the bilateral elasticities as raw data the analysis obtains the associated multilateral estimates and finds that they are both consistent with the literature and suitable to addressing questions involving multilateral trade but the evidence also reveals that sole reliance on multilateral elasticities conceals valuable information for both policy applications and empirical analyses of international trade copyright 1990 by mit press

product aggregation market integration and relationships between prices an application to world salmon markets relationships between prices of goods offer motives of interest in at least two areas market integration and product aggregation there is a close relationship between market integration and aggregation which may increase the usefulness of market integration studies in this article these relationships are developed and illustrated by an application to the world salmon market it is shown that the law of one price holds for an international market with five salmon species this result has significant implications for the world salmon market regarding both product aggregation in demand analyses and international trade policy

population and the environment a parable of firewood and other tales the author analyzes the relationship between population and the environment with a focus on the role which environmental degradation and natural resources depletion may play in producing the population pressure which lies behind such degradation and depletion especially in developing countries the principal conclusion of this analysis is that the possibilities for a stable equilibrium between human population and its environment are quite limited i show that parental altruism toward their children can only make matters worse if socially unchecked by leading to an increase of the birthrate in every environmental state in comparison with that which would occur in its absence excerpt

efficiency properties of non linear pricing schedules without the single crossing condition this paper investigates efficiency properties of profit maximizing non linear outlay schedules it demonstrates that some well known efficiency characteristics of the profit maximizing non linear outlay schedule may not continue to hold when the single crossing condition is relaxed

population technology and growth from malthusian stagnation to the demographic transition and beyond this paper develops a unied growth model that captures the historical evolution of population technology and output it encompasses theendogenous transitionbetween three regimes that have characterized economic development the economy evolves from amalthusianregime wheretechnologicalprogressis slow andpopulationgrowthprevents anysustainedriseinincomepercapita intoapost malthusianregime wheretechnological progress rises and population growth absorbs only part of output growth ultimately a demographic transition reverses the positive relationship between income and population growth andtheeconomyentersamoderngrowthregimewithreducedpopulationgrowth

dupuit conjecture for constrained screening overall distortion and type partitioning abstract in screening with non concave costs i cycles of active ic constraints can make all packages distorted ii standard screening can be less profitable than price discrimination within a consumer type using first come first served rationing

from foraging to farming explaining the neolithic revolution abstract this article reviews the main theories about the prehistoric shift from hunting and gathering to agriculture the transition also known as the neolithic revolution was ultimately necessary to the rise of modern civilization by creating the foundation for the later process of industrialization and sustained economic growth the article provides a brief historical survey of the leading hypotheses concerning the rise of agriculture proposed in the archaeological and anthropological literature it then turns to a more detailed review of the theories put forth in the economic literature

import competition from developed and developing countries separate demand equations for imports from less developed countries ldcs and imports from developed countries dcs were estimated for each of eleven representative product groups imports were found to compete quite readily with domestically produced goods with plausible own price and cross price elasticities whereas the quantity of each type of import was found to be quite responsive to changes in the price of us home goods each appears to be less sensitive to the price of the alternative import an explanation that is consistent with this observation and that finds support from detailed industry information is that dcs and ldcs supply goods that are at different stages in the product or technology cycle whereas us producers compete in all submarkets this suggests that trade creation rather than trade diversion provides the predominant inroad for ldcs into the us market 25 references 3 tables

markets segmented by regional origin labelling with quality control it is the objective of this paper to provide a methodological framework for the analysis of regional marketing programs which inlclude regional origin labelling as well as quality assurance and control such programs are increasingly being introduced in europe and other parts of the world as a means against quality uncertainty in globalized markets an equilibrim displacement model is developed for a segmented market with differential qualities that can be utilized for a broad variety of marketing programs it is applied to one selected european case i e gepruefte qualitaet bayern it is shown that the price impacts on high quality and low quality segments depend crucially on substitutive relationships between the markets and the advertising elasticities welfare implications for producers in a program depend strongly on advertising elasticities too but also on the costs of participation including quality control and on the co financing mechanism between government and producers