the effects of entry regulation on oligopolistic interaction the uruguayan banking sector this article develops a methodology to test alternative oligopoly models and to analyze the effects of entry restrictions on conduct this methodology is applied to the uruguayan banking sector whose legal entry barriers were significantly relaxed during the late 1970s the results are consistent with a von stackelberg type of industry where the degree of oligopolistic interaction among the leading firms is reduced as a consequence of the relaxation of the legal entry barriers

dynamic efficiency in overlapping generations models with stochastic production abstract we consider an overlapping generations economy as in diamond amer econ rev 55 1965 1126 1150 with stochastic production we define two types of efficiency for feasible production consumption allocations using first and second degree stochastic dominance we obtain a complete characterization of inefficiency of type i in this model for each given sequence of strictly concave utility functions for all generations the existence of a competitive equilibrium is proved it is shown that each competitive allocation is short run efficient of type ii

global demographic trends and social security reform how sustainable are the current social security systems in the developed economies given the projected demographic trends the most recent literature has answered this question through dynamic general equilibrium models in a closed economy framework this paper provides a new quantitative benchmark of analysis for this question represented by a two region model south and north of the world economy where capital flows across regions the timing and the extent of the demographic transition and the associated economic forces shaping capital accumulation and equilibrium factor prices are very different in the two regions thus the projected paths of interest rate and wage rate in the north diverge substantially between closed and open economy we perform a wide range of policy experiments under both scenarios our main conclusion is that if one is interested in quantifying the path of the fiscal variables e g the value of the payroll tax needed to keep the social security system viable or to finance a transition towards a fully funded system then these two benchmarks yield similar results however if the focus is on quantifying the path of factor prices aggregate variables and ultimately welfare then the two approaches can diverge significantly

impact of pension system structure on international financial capital allocation abstract recent findings indicate that pension system structure affects private savings and through them the aggregate foreign asset position of a country we present a two country overlapping generations model that explores the relationship between the magnitude of pension guarantees and the resulting portfolio choices of workers the existence of a pay as you go pension system lowers the wealth of the young workers who consequently borrow from abroad to supplement their current consumption and lowers the overall riskiness of their lifetime wealth prompting them to invest in risky equity financed by the selling of safe bonds in particular we are able to replicate and explain the venture capitalist positive net equity accompanied by negative net debt portfolio profile of the united states more broadly we find empirical support for our results in a cross country analysis using data from 110 economies greater amounts of pension spending are associated with international indebtedness long equity positions and short debt positions

a positive theory of social security based on reputation we construct a general equilibrium model in which a pay as you go social security system can be adopted and sustained as a political and economic equilibrium we alalyze the welfare implictions of this system and compare general equilibrium welfare measure to the commonly used notion of actuarial fairness

idiosyncratic risk aggregate risk and the welfare effects of social security we ask whether a pay as you go financed social security system is welfare improving in an economy with idiosyncratic productivity and aggregate business cycle risk we show analytically that the whole welfare benefit from joint insurance against both risks is greater than the sum of benefits from insurance against the isolated risk components one reason is the convexity of the welfare gain in total risk the other reason is a direct risk interaction which amplifies the utility losses from consumption risk we proceed with a quantitative evaluation of social security s welfare effects we find that introducing an unconditional minimum pension leads to substantial welfare gains in expectation even net of the welfare losses from crowding out about 60 of the welfare gains would be missing when simply summing up the isolated benefits

competitive advantage and collusive optima cost differences may often be important in real oligopolies if side payments are impossible the standard cartel objective total industry profits lacks plausibility when costs differ this essay considers plausible alternatives four different technologies for effecting collusion which are essentially identical when costs are equal define sets of possible profits axiomatic bargaining models are used to select unconstrained optima from among these possibilities simple functional forms are employed low cost firms with large shares in cournot equilibrium may have little to gain from collusion if collusion is effective low cost firms will have relatively low estimated conjectural variations

pareto improving social security reform when financial markets are incomplete this paper studies an overlapping generations model with stochastic production and incomplete markets to assess whether the introduction of an unfunded social security system leads to a pareto improvement when returns to capital and wages are imperfectly correlated a system that endows retired households with claims to labor income enhances the sharing of aggregate risk between generations our quantitative analysis shows that abstracting from the capital crowding out effect the introduction of social security represents a pareto improving reform even when the economy is dynamically efficient however the severity of the crowding out effect in general equilibrium tends to overturn these gains

quantifying the risk sharing welfare gains of social security the welfare effects of intergenerational risk sharing through a pay as you go social security system that is efficiently indexed to wages or interest rates are quantified comparing steady states there are large welfare gains of being born into an economy with efficient risk sharing as compared to the current u s system efficient policy involves an increasingly risky net of tax income over the life cycle when adjustment to steady state is taken into account the welfare gains largely turn negative the results are also compared and contrasted to the first best allocation

intergenerational risk sharing via social security when financial markets are incomplete this paper develops an overlapping generations model with stochastic production and incomplete markets to assess whether the introduction of an unfunded social security system can lead to a pareto improvement even if the initial equilibrium is neither production ine cient in the spirit of diamond 1965 nor dynamically ine cient in the spirit of samuelson 1957 when returns to capital and wages are imperfectly correlated and subject to aggregate shocks then the consumption variance of all generations can be reduced if private markets or government policies enable them to pool their labor and capital incomes a social security system that endows retired households with a claim to labor income may serve as an e ective tool to share aggregate risk between gener

social security and the rise in health spending abstract in a quantitative model of social security with endogenous health i argue that social security increases the aggregate health spending of the economy because it redistributes resources to the elderly whose marginal propensity to spend on health is high i show by using computational experiments that the expansion of us social security can account for over a third of the dramatic rise in us health spending from 1950 to 2000 in addition social security has a spill over effect on medicare as social security increases health spending it also increases the payments from medicare thus raising its financial burden

imperfect information and dynamic conjectural variations this article analyzes oligopoly interaction in an environment where firms are imperfectly informed about the evolution of the market demand curve the analysis develops a two period cournot framework under the assumptions that demand shifts are positively serially correlated that firms never directly observe the demand curve and that firms never observe the previous quantity decisions of rivals firms do draw inferences about the position of the demand curve from past observations on prices consequently the current output of a firm will influence the current market price which will then influence rivals inferences about future demand the future output decisions of rivals will respond accordingly the theory predicts negative dynamic conjectural variations essentially a firm perceives that an increase in its output will lower the current market clearing price which will cause rival firms to think that the demand curve has shifted down and hence induce them to lower their outputs in the future

how well does the u s social insurance system provide social insurance we analyze the insurance provided by the u s social security and income tax system within a model in which agents receive idiosyncratic wage rate shocks that are privately observed we consider two reforms a piecemeal reform that optimally chooses the social security benefit function and a radical reform that eliminates the entire social insurance system and replaces it with an optimal tax on lifetime earnings the radical reform outperforms the piecemeal reform and achieves nearly all of the maximum possible welfare gain when wages differ permanently over the lifetime when wage shocks match properties in u s data the piecemeal reform outperforms the radical reform

trade offs in means tested pension design abstract the means testing of age pension programs allows governments to control the receipt of pension benefits extensive margin and the benefit level intensive margin we investigate how the presence of the extensive margin influences the trade off between protecting the poorer elderly and the economic costs of distorting incentives to work and save of young individuals the means test effect via the extensive margin improves the insurance aspect but introduces opposing impacts on incentives that potentially have ambiguous welfare outcomes we characterize combinations of the maximum pension benefit and taper rate that balance the negative incentive effects and positive insurance effects

intergenerational risk sharing and risk taking of a pension fund abstract by using their financial reserves efficiently pension funds can smooth shocks on their asset returns and can thus facilitate intergenerational risk sharing in addition to the primary benefit of improved time diversification this form of risk allocation affords the additional benefit of allowing these funds to take better advantage of the equity premium which also favors the consumers in this paper our aim is twofold first we characterize the socially efficient policy rules of a collective pension plan in terms of portfolio management capital payments to retirees and dividend payments to shareholders we examine both the first best rules and the second best rules where in the latter case the fund is constrained by a solvency constraint and by a guaranteed minimum return to workers contributions second we measure the social surplus of the system compared to a situation in which each generation would save and invest in isolation for its own retirement we estimate that the certainty equivalent return of the pension saving scheme goes from 3 23 per year to 3 76 when intergenerational risk sharing is introduced one of the main results of the paper is that better intergenerational risk sharing does not reduce the risk born by each generation rather it increases the expected return to the workers contributions

entry into regulated monopoly markets the development of a competitive fringe in the local telephone industry abstract incumbent firms operating in today s local telephone industry are beginning to face competition from new entrants using the dominant firm competitive fringe framework and a recently constructed panel data set of local telephone markets this paper provides an empirical analysis of the competitive transition underway in the u s local telephone industry of particular interest is the differential impact of economic regulation on the development of fringe competition in flocal telephone markets empirical results reveal that local telephone markets with price cap regulation have witnessed less net fringe entry and subsequently contain smaller competitive fringes during the time period studied these findings imply that the widespread adoption of price cap regulation by state public utility commissions has contributed to the slow development of local telephone competition to reconcile this surprising conclusion a political economy explanation that details how state regulators have benefited from

the cyclical and secular behaviour of the labour input comparing efficiency units and hours worked summary a monthly labour input series designed to correct for the fact that all hours worked are not of the same quality is constructed and its properties compared with unadjusted hours worked this efficiency units series is constructed from bls data on hours worked and earnings by age and sex the cyclical fluctuations displayed by the efficiency units series are smaller on average than those displayed by hours worked although the difference is not large however the secular behaviour of the series is quite different hours worked per capita displays a significant positive trend while efficiency units per capita does not

social security reform with impure intergenerational altruism abstract this paper studies the long run aggregate and welfare effects of eliminating social security in a quantitative dynamic general equilibrium life cycle model where parents and their children are linked by voluntary and accidental bequests social security in this model with impure altruism has a smaller effect on capital accumulation than in a pure life cycle model a bigger effect than in a model with two sided altruism the welfare gain of eliminating social security system under impure altruism is smaller than that in a pure life cycle model and bigger than that in a model with two sided altruism

business cycles and monetary regimes in emerging economies a role for a monopolistic banking sector abstract this study shows that the presence of imperfect competition in the banking system propagates external shocks and amplifies the business cycle strategic limit pricing aimed at protecting retail niches from potential competitors generates countercyclical bank markups markup increments during recessions directly increase borrowing costs for firms and indirectly damage the financial position of firms balance sheets increasing the risk perception of lenders i use bayesian techniques and data from argentina to show that the inclusion of monopolistic banking improves the fit of the new keynesian small open economy model

manufacturer retailer channel interactions and implications for channel power an empirical investigation of pricing in a local market the issue of power in the marketing channels for consumer products has received considerable attention in both academic and practitioner journals as well as in the popular press our objective in this paper is to provide an empirical method to measure the power of channel members and to understand the reasons demand factors cost factors nature of channel interactions for this power we confine our analysis to pricing power in channels we use methods from the game theory literature in marketing on channel interactions to obtain the theoretical framework for our empirical model this literature provides us a definition of power one that is based on the proportion or percentage of channel profits that accrue to each of the channel members there can be a variety of possible channel interactions between manufacturers and retailers in channels the theoretical literature has examined some of these games for example choi 1991 examines how channel profits for manufacturers and retailer vary if channel interactions are either vertical nash or if they are stackelberg leaderfollower with either the manufacturer or the retailer being the price leader each of these three channel interaction games has different implications for profits made by manufacturers and retailers and consequently for the relative power of the channel members in contrast to the previous literature that has focused largely on the above three channel interaction games our model extends the game theoretic literature by allowing for a continuum of possible channel interactions between manufacturers and a retailer furthermore for a given product market we empirically estimate from the data where the channel interactions lie in this continuum more critically we obtain measures of how channel profits are divided between manufacturers and the retailer in the product market where a higher share of channel profit is associated with higher channel power we then examine how channel power is related to demand conditions facing various brands and cost parameters of various manufacturers in going from game theory based theoretical models of channel interactions to empirical estimation we use the new empirical industrial organization framework bresnahan 1988 as part of this structural modeling framework we build retail level demand functions for the various brands manufacturer and private label in a given product category given these demand functions we obtain optimal pricing rules for manufacturers and the retailer in determining their optimal prices manufacturers and the retailer account for how all the players in the channel choose their optimal prices that is we account for dependencies in decision making across channel members these dependencies are characterized by a set of conduct parameters which are estimated from market data the conduct parameters enable us to identify the nature of channel interactions between manufacturers and the retailer along the continuum mentioned previously in addition to the demand and conduct parameters manufacturers marginal costs are also estimated in the model these marginal cost estimates along with the manufacturer prices and retail prices available in our dataset enable us to compute the division of channel profits among the channel members hence we are able to obtain insights into who has pricing power in the channel in the empirical application of the model we analyze a local market for two product categories refrigerated juice and tuna in both categories there are three major brands the difference between them is that the private label has an insignificant market share in the tuna category our main empirical results show that the usual games examined in the marketing literature do not hold for the given data we also nd that the retailer s market power is very significant in both these product categories and that the estimated demand and cost parameters are consistent with the estimated pattern of conduct between the manufacturers and the retailer given the evidence from the trade press of intense manufacturer competition in these categories as well as the commodity nature of these products the result of retailer power appears intuitive

existence and local uniqueness of functional rational expectations equilibria in dynamic economic models abstract this paper established the existence and local uniqueness of stationary functional rational expectations equilibria for an open set of multi good multi agent pure exchange overlapping generations models in which agents endowments are random such equilibria are given by prices which are functions of one period lagged prices and endowments and of current endowments

social security and individual welfare precautionary saving borrowing constraints and the payroll tax this paper examines the impact of social security on national saving and individual welfare in the presence of realistic capital market imperfections market failure in the private provision of annuities and restrictions on borrowing against anticipated future wages the introduction of social security increases lifetime welfare and reduces national saving if borrowing restrictions are absent however the increase in individual welfare is reduced and in some cases eliminated when borrowing constraints are taken into consideration the substantial difference suggests the importance of reexamining the proportional payroll tax finance of social security copyright 1987 by american economic association

the effects of financial liberalization on savings and investment in uruguay the following sections are included introductionfinancial reforms financial deepening and financial crisisstylized outcomes savings investment and growthfinancial liberalization savings and investmentfinancial resource allocation at the micro levelconclusions

voluntary participation and intergenerational risk sharing in a funded pension system we explore the feasibility of a funded pension system with intergenerational risk sharing when participation in the system is voluntary typically the willingness of the young to participate depends on their belief about the future young s willingness to do so we characterise equilibria with voluntary participation and show that the likelihood of their existence increases with risk aversion and financial market uncertainty we find that mandatory participation is often necessary to sustain a funded pension pillar and to let participants benefit from intergenerational risk sharing

is consumption growth consistent with intertemporal optimization evidence from the consumer expenditure survey in this paper we show that some of the predictions of models of consumer intertemporal optimization are in line with the patterns of nondurable expenditure observed in u s household level data we propose a flexible specification of preferences that allows multiple commodities and yields empirically tractable equations we estimate preference parameters using the only u s micro data set with complete consumption information we show that previous rejections can be explained by the simplifying assumptions made in previous studies we also show that results obtained using good consumption or aggregate data can be misleading

in pursuit of monopoly power recent quantitative work in industrial economics this paper reviews empirical work in industrial organization devoted to the question of inferring the existence of monopoly power from data on observed market outcomes like profits and prices the discussion covers inter industry work long conventional in the area newer developments in intra industry analysis and case studies and concludes with some remarks on a small but growing body of work assessing market dynamics the wide range of studies reviewed all generally reveal that market power exists in many industries

compiling the actuarial balance for pay as you go pension systems is it better to use the hidden asset or the contribution asset the aim of this article is twofold to establish the connection between the contribution asset ca and the hidden asset ha and to determine whether using either of them to compile the actuarial balance ab sheet in the pay as you go payg pension system will provide a reliable solvency indicator with these aims in mind we develop a model based on those first put forward by settergren and mikula 2005 and boado penas et al 2008 to obtain the analytical properties of the ca and to confirm its soundness as a measure of the assets of a payg scheme our model also enables us to explore whether and to what extent the ha can be considered a second alternative measure of the assets for payg schemes the main theoretical finding is that despite their very different natures the ha and the ca may nearly coincide at the limit when the interest rate of the financial market approaches the growth of the covered wage bill from above but the ha supplies a solvency indicator which is not always consiste

deregulation and strategic complements japanese gasoline market the purpose of this article is to provide an explanation for the success of deregulation implemented in the japanese oil industry by investigating the economic norm in japanese gasoline market namely how a firm expects its rivals to react when the firm changes its output decisions using the conjectural opponent s reaction this article investigates whether the economic norm in japanese gasoline market is strategic complements or strategic substitutes it is found that the economic norm in the japanese gasoline market over the period 1992 to 2003 is strategic complements that is do it since everyone else is doing it it is suggested that some of the fall in gasoline prices said to result from successful deregulation should really be attributed to the production expansion derived from this strategic complementarity

a rational economic model of paygo tax rates abstract we argue that paygo rates are determined by a representative agent and a benevolent government jointly maximizing the expected life time utility of the agent the distributions of labor and capital income are calculated from national data on real gdp real wages and the real return to capital since 1950 with uniform risk aversion predicted rates explain 83 of the variance of observed rates the globalization of capital markets would lead to convergence of paygo rates our results are immune to crises like 2008

social security and risk sharing abstract in this paper we identify conditions under which the introduction of a pay as you go social security system is ex ante pareto improving in a stochastic olg economy with capital accumulation and land we argue that these conditions are consistent with realistic specifications of the parameters of the economy in our model financial markets are complete and competitive equilibria interim pareto efficient therefore a welfare improvement can only be obtained if agents welfare is evaluated ex ante and arises from an improvement in intergenerational risk sharing we also examine the optimal size of a given social security system as well as its optimal reform

intergenerational risk shifting through social security and bailout politics abstract this paper adopts a stochastic overlapping generations framework to analyze the allocation of aggregate financial risks under different social security systems and a majority voting rule we study whether there will be switches between pay as you go payg and fully funded ff systems in such an economy we show that in case of a negative aggregate shock low income young individuals will form a political coalition with the elderly to implement a payg system payg scheme is shown to persist even after a good aggregate shock if the system is redistributive enough

social security and old age unemployment risk with efficient wage bargaining i analyze a life cycle economy with old age productivity risk where wages employment and severance payments are set through efficient bargaining between risk averse unions and risk neutral firms allocations with limited union membership are second best inefficient as they generate too little labor supply in young age too much consumption before retirement too little employment of older workers early retirement and too little insurance against old age unemployment providing public transfers to early retirees disability benefits or early pensions might help to increase the degree of risk sharing at the cost of lower old age employment depending on whether absolute risk aversion is increasing or decreasing in consumption these policies might or might not produce efficiency gains at equilibrium

investigating dynamic multifirm market interactions in price and advertising diagnosing the nature and magnitu de of competitive interactions among firms is important for developing effective marketing strategies in this paper we formulate a game theoretic model of firm interaction to analyze the dynamic price and advertising competition among firms in a given p roduct market firm or brand level demand functions account for the contemporaneous and carry over effects of these marketing activities and also allow for the effects of competitor actions firms take into consideration the actions of their rivals as well as their own demand and cost functions both production and advertising when determining the profit maximizing price and advertising levels our formulation enables us to quantify not only the direction and magnitude of competitive reactions but also to identify the underlying form of market conduct that generates the particular pattern of interaction we specify and estimate a fully structural econometric model for three firms constituting a distinct sub market within a personal care product category we estimate the demand and competitive interaction parameters as well as the production and advertising cost functions for each firm we then derive implications for competitive interactions and market structure interestingly we find that while firms seem to compete on advertising they price cooperatively thereby enhancing their price cost margins

market structure in the us electricity industry a long term perspective we estimate changes in market structure in the us electric power industry during the last three decades using two independent approaches first we estimate an industry wide conjectural variations parameter we find that industry concentration was generally rising during the 1970s but has been gradually and consistently falling since the early 1980s to check the robustness of these results we then use a translog production function to estimate the lerner index the results confirm that the industry was becoming less concentrated during the 1980s though the lerner index tended to fluctuate during the late 1980s and early 1990s our results suggest that the current state of the electricity industry may have more to do with long term changes in market structure than recent attempts to establish competitive wholesale electricity markets

propagation and smoothing of shocks in alternative social security systems abstract even with well developed capital markets there is no private market mechanism for trading between current and future generations this generates a potential role for public old age pension systems to spread economic and demographic shocks among different generations this paper evaluates how different systems smooth and propagate shocks to productivity fertility mortality and migration in a realistic olg model we use reductions in the variance of wealth equivalents to measure performance starting with the existing u s system as a unifying framework in which we vary how much taxes and benefits adjust and which we then compare to the existing german and swedish systems we find that system design and shock type are key factors the german system and the benefit adjustment only u s system best smooth productivity shocks which are by far the most important shocks overall the german system performs best while the swedish system which includes a buffer stock to relax annual budget constraints performs rather poorly focusing on the u s system reliance solely on tax adjustment fares best for mortality and migration shocks while equal reliance on tax and benefit adjustments is best for fertility shocks

economic fluctuations market power and returns to scale evidence from firm level data recent research on aggregate fluctuations coupled with ongoing work in industrial organization has renewed interest in the existence magnitude and cyclical pattern of market power and the extent of increasing returns to scale by exploiting restrictions from dynamic theory and information from financial markets we present a framework for generating quantitative evidence on market power and returns to scale tailoring the econometric model to firm level panel data we calculate the percentage differential between price and marginal cost the lerner index in terms of the parameters from the econometric system results for firms in eleven industries indicate that there is a great deal of heterogeneity in the extent of market power industries with significantly positive lerner indices tend to have substantial increasing returns in the production technology we find that there is only a modest relation between our estimated lerner indices and traditional measures of market power and that when market power varies temporally it is usually procyclical thus variations in the markup of price over marginal cost may help dampen aggregate economic fluctuations

political intergenerational risk sharing abstract in a stochastic two period olg model featuring an aggregate shock to the economy ex ante optimality requires intergenerational risk sharing we compare the level of intergenerational risk sharing chosen by a benevolent government and by an office seeking politician in our political system the transfer of resources across generations is determined as a markov equilibrium of a probabilistic voting game low realized returns on the risky asset induce politicians to compensate the old through a payg system this political system typically generates an intergenerational risk sharing scheme that is i larger ii more persistent and iii less responsive to the realization of the shock than the social optimum this is because the current politician anticipates her transfers to the elderly to be compensated by future politicians through offsetting transfers and hence overspends

does social security privatization produce efficiency gains while privatizing social security can improve labor supply incentives it can also reduce risk sharing we analyze a 50 privatization using an overlapping generations model where heterogeneous agents with elastic labor supply face idiosyncratic earnings shocks and longevity uncertainty when wage shocks are insurable privatization produces about 18 100 of extra resources for each future household after all transitional losses have been compensated for with lump sum taxes when wages are not insurable privatization reduces efficiency by about 2 400 per future household we check the robustness of these results to different model specifications as well as policy reforms and arrive at several surprising conclusions first privatization performs better in a closed economy where interest rates decline with capital accumulation than in an open economy second privatization also performs better when an actuarially fair private annuity market does not exist third government matching of private contributions on a progressive basis is not very effective at restoring efficiency and can actually cause harm

the optimal mix between funded and unfunded pension systems when people care about relative consumption the paper studies the optimal portfolio mix between funded and unfunded pension systems when people care about relative consumption in pay as you go systems with fixed contribution rates pensions are tied to wages this lowers the uncertainty of individuals future relative position thereby increasing the attractiveness of unfunded systems the paper shows analytically that the optimal share of funding decreases with the importance of relative standing a calibrated version of the model suggests that the concern for relative standing has also a quantitatively important impact on the optimal share of funding for reasonable assumptions it is typically around 20

optimal fiscal policy in the design of social security reforms the quantitative literature has documented that a privatization of the social securitysystemgenerateslargelong runwelfaregainsatthecostofwelfarelosses for transition generations in this article we maximize over the entire policy space following the optimal fiscal policy approach the resulting allocation by construction lies on the constrained pareto frontier we find that the optimal design of reforms exhibits sizeable welfare gains arising from a reduction in labor supply distortions in contrast the welfare gains coming from the reduction of savings distortions are relatively small

conjectures firm characteristics and market structure abstract this paper makes use of a unique data set to investigate how firms in the vancouver british columbia retail gasoline market view their rivals and how consumers in turn view these firms own and rival price elasticities of demand conjectural variations and lerner indices are estimated for thirteen service stations in a submarket of vancouver these variables are then related to firm characteristics such as type of ownership degree of horizontal and vertical integration and type of service in this way systematic patterns in seller behavior and in buyer attitudes are revealed

predicting competitive response to a major policy change combining game theoretic and empirical analyses this research uses procter gamble s value pricing initiative as a context for testing whether actual competitor and retailer response to a major policy change can be predicted using a game theoretic model we first estimate demand functions for p g and competitor brands from the period before value pricing was initiated we then formulate a dynamic manufacturer retailer stackelberg model that includes p g a national brand competitor and a retailer the model takes p g s move as given and prescribes the price and promotion response of the competitors and the retailer we substitute the estimated demand parameters into the model to obtain prescriptions for each competitor and the retailer and see whether these prescriptions are related to the actual response we find that the dynamic game theoretic model calibrated with empirical estimates of demand parameters has significant predictive power we also test the predictive power of two benchmark models the first is based on the reaction function approach of leeflang and wittink leeflang peter s h wittink dick r 1992 diagnosing competitive reactions using aggregated scanner data internat j res marketing9 39 57 and the second is a simplification of our dynamic model where the retailer is not strategic the dynamic game theoretic model performs better than either benchmark

vancouver s gasoline price wars an empirical exercise in uncovering supergame strategies this paper uses a unique data set to determine which dynamic model of tacit collusion best describes behaviour in a particular industry the area investigated is a region of the vancouver british columbia retail gasoline market players are service station managers who compete daily firms choose price in each period using strategies that depend on prices chosen in the previous period periodically unanticipated demand shocks precipitate price wars when shocks occur the firms in the market must determine the new demand conditions and adjust their strategies from an econometric point of view slopes of intertemporal reaction functions are latent variables the resulting system of equations with time varying parameters is estimated via the kalman filter different repeated game oligopoly models correspond to different transition matrices for the latent variables the models can thus be assessed in terms of their power to explain firm behaviour in this market

the impact of deregulation on price and non price competition in the portuguese deposits market abstract the portuguese deposits market experienced a pronounced deregulation phase from 1986 to 1992 during that period the situation moved from a highly regulated market in which government controlled institutions accounted for more than 90 of the market to a complete integration into the fully liberalised european internal market this paper studies the evolution of market power and non price competition during that deregulation process using panel data a system of three equations was estimated representing optimality decisions for deposit rates advertising expenditures and branches an important conclusion is that interest rate and entry deregulation were associated with an increase in both price and non price competition the small foreign owned banks were found to have virtually no market power in deposits on the other hand although no direct relationship between market power and market share was found significant market power was detected for the wholesale and banks that existed since before the revolution thus mergers between large banks are not likely to directly increase market power for the participating firms although the association found between market power and concentration suggests that such mergers may increase the banking industry s profits

intergenerational risk sharing and endogenous labour supply within funded pension schemes funded defined benefit pensions add to welfare on account of providing intergenerational risk sharing but lower it on account of inducing labour supply distortions we show that a properly designed funded defined benefit pension scheme involves a welfare improvement even if contributions are distortionary and even if individuals face potentially correlated wage and equity risks numerical calculations indicate that diversification gains from risk sharing are large compared to the losses related to labour supply distortions this result withstands a number of extensions like the introduction of a short sale constraint for individuals or the inclusion of a labour income tax

an empirical analysis of dynamic nonprice competition in an oligopolistic industry this article develops a dynamic model of nonprice competition in an oligopolistic industry and uses it to analyze advertising competition in the u s cigarette industry the model generalizes existing studies by allowing advertising to affect both firm market shares and the total size of the market the model also allows dynamic conjectural variations to arise from the intertemporal links created by the durability of advertising we use these dynamic conjectural variations to distinguish alternative models of competitive interaction we estimate the complete model of firm production demand and advertising choice by using data for u s cigarette producers the results indicate that firm advertising primarily affects the level of market demand with a firm s effect on rival firms market shares arising through variations in the number of brands sold empirical results on firm behavior suggest that firms act as if their advertising choices will alter the future advertising choices of rival firms in both the high tar and low tar cigarette markets

asset pricing with limited risk sharing and heterogeneous agents we develop a model with incomplete markets and heterogeneous agents that generates a large equity premium while simultaneously matching stock market participation and individual asset holdings the high risk premium is driven by incomplete risk sharing among stockholders which results from the combination of aggregate uncertainty borrowing constraints and a realistically calibrated life cycle earnings profile subject to idiosyncratic shocks we show that it is challenging to simultaneously match asset pricing moments and individual portfolio decisions while limited participation has a negligible impact on the risk premium contrary to the results of models where it is imposed exogenously

profitability concentration imports and exports the case of taiwan s midstream petrochemical industries based on an open economy oligopoly model causalities among domestic firms price cost margin pcm domestic concentration import and export shares are derived and a simultaneous equation system is established by utilizing the 1989 1997 data of taiwan s midstream petrochemical industries three stage least squares is used to estimate the system the empirical results confirm the derived results and demonstrate 1 there exist simultaneous relationships among domestic pcm domestic concentration import and export shares 2 import concentration affects domestic concentration positively but affects domestic pcm import and export shares negatively 3 diversifying international markets improves domestic firms pcm 4 domestic firms seem to be in a situation of collusion

external shocks financial reforms and stabilization attempts in uruguay during 1974 1983 abstract this paper interprets and evaluates uruguay s reforms emphasizing the outcome of financial reforms and attempts to bring down inflation it is shown that domestic interest rate deregulation and the removal of prohibition towards holding dollar denominated assets led to a rise in the ratio of financial assets in gdp and to a shift towards dollar denominated assets causes of the persistent and large spread between peso and dollar interest rates adjusted for the preannounced rate of devaluation tablita are examined the discussion of the stabilization program during 1979 1982 and its aftermath in 1983 shows that setting the tablita at less than the difference between internal and external inflation led to severe imbalances because of remaining redundant protection and price stickness the real exchange rate appreciated sharply for a prolonged period and the trade balance widened until the stabilization episode ended with capital flight when doubts set in about the sustainability of the tablita

intergenerational risksharing and equilibrium asset prices in the presence of overlapping generations a social security system with contingent taxes and benefits can affect both asset prices and intergenerational risksharing in a simple model with two risky factors of production human capital owned by the young and physical capital owned by all older generations a social security system that optimally shares risks exposes future generations to a share of the risk in physical capital such a system reduces precautionary saving and increases the riskbearing capacity of the economy under plausible conditions it increases the riskless interest rate and lowers the price and risk premium of physical capital

duration targeting and the management of multiperiod returns modern portfolio management increasingly includes the use of targeted duration strategies as a means of achieving a desired balance between risk and return in such strategies a constant duration is maintained through periodic rebalancing one of the most important characteristics of duration targeting strategies is the focusing of the return distribution on a minimum variance point this point occurs when the duration is equal to about one half the investment horizon it is consequently possible to achieve partial immunization of a bond portfolio by simply maintaining its duration at one half the length of the investment horizon many performance benchmarks including the salomon brothers big index exhibit an almost constant duration it follows that by tracking a bond index one can obtain many of the results of a duration targeting strategy

assessing the competitive interaction between private labels and national brands in this article we employ the linear approximate almost ideal demand system la aids and specify price reaction equations derived under the la aids specification we perform intracategory analyses using data on six individual categories as well as a pooled analysis on a sample of 125 categories and 59 geographic markets we find that consumer response to price and promotion decisions demand and firm pricing behavior supply jointly determine observed market prices and market shares further estimates of residual demand elasticities suggest that examination of partial demand elasticities alone may provide an incomplete picture of the ability of brands to raise price copyright 2000 by university of chicago press

risk sharing and efficiency implications of progressive pension arrangements the present paper aims to quantify the welfare effects of progressive pension arrangements in germany starting from a purely contribution related benefit system we introduce basic allowances for contributions and a flat benefit fraction since our overlapping generations model takes into account variable labor supply borrowing constraints as well as stochastic income risk we can compare the labor supply the liquidity and the insurance effects of the policy reform our simulations indicate that for a realistic parameter combination an increase in pension progressivity would yield an aggregate efficiency gain of more than 2 percent of resources however such a reform would not be implemented because it would not find political support of the currently living generations

fiscal policy and asset prices with incomplete markets we study the simultaneous impact of fiscal policy decisions on macroeconomic activity wealth distribution and asset prices we consider a general equilibrium overlapping generations model with incomplete markets and heterogeneous agents where government debt and capital are imperfect substitutes increases in public debt lead to significant increases in the riskless rate and to a reduction in the equity premium while higher capital income tax rates lead to a higher equity premium the crowding out effects on capital and output are much higher than in models where government debt and capital are perfect substitutes which thus ignore households portfolio reallocation decisions the author 2012 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oup com oxford university press

intergenerational redistribution in the great recession in this paper we construct a stochastic overlapping generations general equilibrium model in which households are subject to aggregate shocks that aect both wages and asset prices we use a calibrated version of the model to quantify how the welfare costs of severe recessions are distributed across dierent household age groups the model predicts that younger cohorts fare better than older cohorts when the equilibrium decline in asset prices is large relative to the decline in wages asset price declines hurt the old who rely on asset sales to nance consumption but benet the young who purchase assets at depressed prices in our preferred calibration asset prices decline more than twice as much as wages consistent with the experience of the us economy in the great recession a model recession is approximately welfare neutral for households in the 20 29 age group but translates into a large welfare loss of around 10 percent of lifetime consumption for households aged 70 and over

modeling an immigration shock abstract in this paper we model an overlapping generation economy affected by an unexpected immigration shock and determine how households may insure themselves against immigration risk we use the model to study the impact of immigration on i the welfare of different generations ii the distribution of income among factors of production and iii the optimal design of the intergenerational welfare state in particular we construct a system of public education and public pensions that mimics the efficient complete market allocation we also consider the impact of immigration shocks in a small open economy in this case our model suggests that the external capital flow can act as a substitute for the missing private insurance markets our analysis delivers a set of predictions that we find useful for understanding certain aspects of the spanish experience between 1996 and 2008

an examination of market power in the intrastate long distance telephone service markets evidence from a natural experiment abstract during the preceding 2 decades state public utility commissions have experimented extensively with regulating telecommunications carriers more recently many states have more or less deregulated long distance service this paper employs a panel data set of states to examine whether the competitive conduct of long distance carriers was affected by these events a methodology is developed to estimate changes in the market conduct parameter following states decisions to price deregulate long distance service this effect is isolated by using a difference in difference estimator that compares the change in market conduct of the treatment group states deregulated during the study period to the change in market conduct of the control group states deregulated throughout the study period my hypothesis is that elimination of price regulation altered the carriers market conduct and that this change in conduct explains in part the price differences in regulated and deregulated markets the result

concentration and other determinants of bank profitability in europe north america and australia abstract this study reviews the performance of banks in twelve countries or territories in europe north america and australia and examines the internal and external determination of profitability to circumvent some of the difficulties in making comparisons between banks in different countries the concept of value added is introduced results parallel those in domestic u s studies and provide some support for the edwards heggestad mingo hypothesis of risk avoidance by banks with a high degree of market power

trade liberalization in oligopolistic industries the quota case abstract this paper analyzes the short and long run effects on domestic price and output of partially liberalizing quota restrictions in a general model of oligopolistic interactions it is shown that perverse outcomes are possible in a number of cases including that of rational conjectures a larger quota may result in an increase in domestic output in the short run and a higher price in the long run the relationship between oligopolistic conjectures and the number of firms in the industry is critical in determining the long run outcome