the proper scope of government theory and an application to prisons when should a government provide a service in house and when should it contract out provision we develop a model in which the provider can invest in improving the quality of service or reducing cost if contracts are incomplete the private provider has a stronger incentive to engage in both quality improvement and cost reduction than a government employee has however the private contractor s incentive to engage in cost reduction is typically too strong because he ignores the adverse effect on noncontractible quality the model is applied to understanding the costs and benefits of prison privatization

commodity price forecasting with large scale econometric models and the futures market this paper compares the accuracy of major commercial price forecasts for corn wheat soybeans soybean oil soybean meal cotton live cattle and hogs the price forecasting information in futures prices is evaluated by comparison the results among commercial forecasters are mixed but futures prices perform relatively better on average although not universally so these results have important implications for operational risk management

a test of executive behavior in the local public sector this paper provides an empirical framework to test three competing theories regarding the behavior of public executives in the local public sector these alternative theo ries are the public interest median voter and expense preference or surplus maximizing leviathan models this study tests these various theories by determining whether aggregate property values the median value of housing or administra tive expenditures is a more significant determinant of the salary of a representative school executive in connecticut the empirical results lend some support for the expense preference model leviathan model of public executive be havior

the role of market forces in assuring contractual performance the conditions under which transactors can use the market repeat purchase mechanism of contract enforcement are examined increased price is shown to be a means of assuring contractual performance a necessary and sufficient condition for performance is the existence of price sufficiently above salvageable production costs so that the nonperforming firm loses a discounted steam of rents on future sales which is greater than the wealth increase from nonperformance this will generally imply a market price greater than the perfectly competitive price and rationalize investments in firm specific assets advertising investments thereby become a positive indicator of likely performance

endogeneity in brand choice models applications of random utility models to scanner data have been widely presented in marketing for the last 20 years one particular problem with these applications is that they have ignored possible correlations between the independent variables in the deterministic component of utility price promotion etc and the stochastic component or error term in fact marketing mix variables such as price not only affect brand purchasing probabilities but are themselves endogenously set by marketing managers this work tests whether these endogeneity problems are important enough to warrant consideration when estimating random utility models with scanner panel data our results show that not accounting for endogeneity may result in a substantial bias in the parameter estimates

relative performance of public and private ownership under yardstick competition electricity retail distribution abstract this paper focuses on productive efficiency in swedish retail electricity distribution during 1970 1990 using hedonic output s constructed from physical outputs and their qualities and network characteristics the main focus is on efficiency of privately owned municipal utilities municipal companies and companies with mixed ownerships three different approaches are used to examine whether ownership of the distribution companies has any systematic impact on the above issues we also examine returns to scale and technical change empirical results from the three alternative approaches show that privately owned companies are relatively more efficient we find evidence of scale economies and technical progress

consumer choice and competition policy a study of uk energy markets consumer choice is increasingly recognised as a crucial factor in competition policy to illustrate the implications of such choice we present an investment model of the switching choice in the uk residential natural gas market and examine responses to a specially commissioned survey of nearly seven hundred consumers identifying search and switching costs through an assessment of the savings which consumers say they require to switch supplier together with an evaluation of consumer switching behaviour we deduce that the incumbent retained considerable market power suggesting that some continued regulation may be necessary

price and advertising as signals of quality when some consumers are informed abstract a monopoly produces a good of either high or low quality some consumers are informed about quality while others are uninformed and infer quality through the firm s marketing strategy the model is an extension of bagwell and riordan american economic review 81 1 1991 224 dissipative advertising combined with a high price is an efficient signal of quality when the marginal cost of production of high quality is low if the proportion of informed consumers is low quality is signaled only through a high price however if this proportion is intermediate quality is signaled by both advertising and price

quality price advertising and published quality ratings economic literature contains several sometimes contradictory hypotheses concerning the relationships among quality price and advertising we investigate the impact of published quality ratings on these relationships and find that quality and advertising are much more likely to be positively related in the presence of quality ratings

managerial discretion and expense preference behavior 995 considerable debate has raged over the economic assumption that the large corporation through the decisions of its managers attempts to maximize its profits closely related to the notion of profit maximization is expense preference behavior of managers which would indicate a preference for expenses over firm profit this study examines the market structure effects on expense preference behavior and for the first time tests are made using data which unambiguously reflect market structure differences between firms in the sample the results provide evidence that is contrary to the expense preference hypothesis 1e conomists have long been interested in managerial motivation as ciscel and carroll 1980 carroll and ciscel 1982 recently explain considerable debate has raged over the economic assumption that the large corporation through the decisions of its managers attempts to maximize its profits closely related to the notion of profit maximization is expense preference behavior of managers which would indicate a preference for expenses over firm profits the tension between profit maximization behavior and expense preference behavior of managers has been discussed by larner 1970 one condition which could affect a firm s ability and willingness to engage in expense preference behavior is the market structure in which it operates this study examines the market structure effects on expense preference behavior and for the first time tests are made using data which unambiguously reflect market structure differences the results provide evidence contrary to the expense preference hypothesis and the findings are quite consistent with the previous research of ciscel and carroll 1980 larner 1970 rhoades 1980 and glassman and rhoades 1980

generating efficiency economic and environmental regulation of public and private electricity generators in spain abstract economic regulation of firms with market power has placed increasing emphasis on incentive based regulation such as price caps we focus on the effect of regulation as distinct from ownership and identify the effect of two different regulatory schemes on both publicly and privately owned spanish electricity generators publicly owned generators were more efficient under cost of service regulation private but not public firms responded to incentive regulation by increasing efficiency bringing their productivity to similar levels we introduce some novelty in modelling efficiency including three pollutants and declared plant availability as outputs and we test for the effect of environmental regulation in reducing pollutants

two part pricing for experience goods in the presence of adverse selection abstract because customers learn something when they purchase an experience good for the first time a firm selling experience goods may face different demand curves from new and repeat customers the firm can exploit these differences by using a two part pricing strategy to price discriminate between new and repeat customers the firm may also use a two part pricing strategy to mitigate the information problems of adverse selection when its quality is uncertain the analysis is particularly applicable to service markets where customers and firms seek long term relationships and firms maintain customer records which facilitate price discrimination

the role of consumers in competition and competition policy abstract this paper develops the idea that consumers behaviour matters significantly from the viewpoint of industry performance this is examined through some theoretical propositions on search and switching behaviour but then at greater length through some case study examples these demonstrate how even in potentially competitive industries reluctance by consumers to search or to switch suppliers can lead to sub competitive outcomes comparisons are made between industries where search and switching is easy and those where it is not the significance of non traditional competition policy remedies such as enforcement of annual contracts in changing the outcome is drawn out

is advertising a signal of product quality evidence from the compact disc player market 1983 1992 abstract we study panel data on advertising and pricing in the compact disc player market during 1983 1992 controlling for product features firm heterogeneity and aggregate effects i advertising increases after the player is introduced but at a decreasing rate and ii price falls from the outset and at an accelerating pace these patterns are inconsistent with both the perfect learning in papers by kihlstrom and riordan j polit econ 92 1984 427 and milgrom and roberts j polit econ 94 1986 796 and the imperfect learning in horstmann and macdonald j econ manag strat 3 1994 561 versions of paper by nelson j polit econ 82 1974 729 model of advertising extensions having persistent consumer uncertainty and learning can explain these profiles

the new econometrics of structural change dating breaks in u s labor productivity we have seen the emergence of three major innovations in the econometrics of structural change in the past fifteen years 1 tests for a structural break of unknown timing 2 estimation of the timing of a structural break and 3 tests to distinguish unit roots from broken time trends these three innovations have dramatically altered the face of applied time series econometrics in this paper we review these three innovations and illustrate their application through an empirical assessment of u s labor productivity in the manufacturing durables sector

privatization of electricity distribution in the northeast of brazil the good the bad the ugly or the naive this paper analyzes the evolution of five electricity distribution companies in the northeast of brazil using technical and financial indicators three privatized and two public firms were analyzed between 1997 and 2008 the financial indicators are used as proxies for the capacity of the business to generate value for shareholders while the technical indicators are used as proxies for service quality provided to consumers we observed that the privatized firms had their financial indicators improved after privatization increasing the value of the firm for the shareholders however there is no evidence that privatization affected the quality of service provided to consumers

behavior of the firm under regulatory constraint a recent article by akira takayama discusses an earlier paper by harvey averch and leland l johnson on fair rate of return regulation of public utilities although takayama p 255 agrees with averch and johnson s general conclusions that a firm will tend to increase its investment with the introduction of an active constraint on its rate of return he criticizes the a j argument as being confusing ambiguous and in error takayama then attempts a clarification and presents a new formulation which leads to the a j result quoted above this comment will discuss several of takayama s criticisms in addition to showing that the so called a j effect cannot be derived from the basic assumptions made by both averch and johnson and takayama 1 we will show that the very assumptions used to prove the a j effect by defining the region of x require an assumption that the a j effect exists in the first place

pricing efficiency in the live cattle futures market further interpretation and measurement the pricing efficiency of the live cattle futures market is evaluated using out of sample forecasts from an econometric model an arima model and composite forecasting procedures in terms of the mean squared error criterion a necessary condition for market efficiency at least one of the models and frequently more forecasted more accurately than did the futures market however market simulation results based on the most accurate forecasts generated large risk return ratios these results do not show strong evidence of inefficiency and call into question the use of only mean squared errors to examine a market s pricing efficiency

the comparative advantage of public ownership evidence from u s electric utilities studies of the performance effects of public vs private ownership have found mixed evidence this paper draws on theory suggesting that public enterprise may have an advantage in producing goods and services whose quality attributes are difficult to specify a priori using a comprehensive data set of u s electric utilities to estimate cost functions we find that while privately owned systems achieve lower costs in generation public systems generally have an advantage in the end user oriented distribution function with its more non contractible quality attributes other evidence on quality differences by ownership type and by enterprise size supports this distinction jel classification l33 l94 l avantage comparatif de la propriete publique resultats pour la production d electricite auxetats unis les etudes de la performance des entreprises publiques et privees ont produit des resultats qui ne sont pas determinants ce memoire se fonde sur la theorie qui suggere que l entreprise publique peut avoir un avantage dans la production de biens et services dont la qualite est difficile a definir a priori a partir de donnees extensives sur les producteurs d electricite aux etats unis on definit des fonctions de couts il appert que quand ils sont entre des mains privees les systemes de production reussissent a obtenir des couts de generation plus bas d autre part les systemes publics ont un avantage pour ce qui est de la fonction de distribution orientee vers les besoins de l usager a cause des attributs de qualite plus difficiles a contractualiser d autres resultats quant aux differences de qualite par types de propriete et par tailles d entreprises viennent confirmer l importance de cette distinction

does advertising serve as a signal evidence from a field experiment in mobile search we develop a field experiment that assesses whether advertising can serve as a signal that enhances consumers evaluations of advertised goods we implement the experiment on a mobile search platform that provides listings and reviews for an archetypal experience good restaurants in collaboration with the platform we randomize about 200 000 users in 13 asian cities into exposure of ads for about 600 local restaurants within the exposure group we randomly vary the disclosure to the consumer of whether a restaurant s listing is a paid ad this enables isolating the effect on outcomes of a user knowing that a listing is sponsored a pure signalling effect we find that this disclosure increases calls to the restaurant by 77 holding fixed all other attributes of the ad the disclosure effect is higher when the consumer uses the platform away from his typical city of search when the uncertainty about restaurant quality is larger and for restaurants that have received fewer ratings in the past on the supply side newer higher rated and more popular restaurants are found to advertise more on the platform and ratings of those that advertised during the experiment are found to be higher two years later taken together we interpret these results as consistent with a signalling equilibrium in which ads serve as implicit signals that enhance the appeal of the advertised restaurants to consumers both consumers and advertisers seem to benefit from the signalling consumers shift choices towards restaurants that are better rated at baseline in the disclosure group compared to the no disclosure group and advertisers gain from the improved outcomes induced by disclosure

outlook vs futures three decades of evidence in hog and cattle markets the accuracy of hog and cattle price forecasts from four outlook programs is compared with forecasts derived from futures markets most of the series begin in the mid to late 1970s and end in 2007 root mean squared error rmse comparisons indicate the difference between outlook and futures rmse is relatively small in most cases in directional terms outlook forecasts beat futures prices only 2 out of 11 times in hogs and 1 out of 7 times in cattle however the null hypothesis that futures encompasses outlook is rejected in 5 of 11 cases for hogs and 4 of 7 cases for cattle

charity as a substitute for reputation evidence from an online marketplace consumers respond positively to products tied to charity particularly from sellers that are relatively new and hence have limited alternative means for assuring quality we establish this result using data from a diverse group of ebay sellers who experiment with charity by varying the presence of a donation in a set of otherwise matched product listings most of charity s benefits accrue to sellers without extensive ebay histories consistent with charity serving as a quality signal we find fewer customer complaints among charity intensive sellers

advertising and quality in the u s market for automobiles using data consisting of domestic and foreign automobiles over the period 1985 1990 the hypothesis that advertising serves as a signal of higher quality is empirically tested this is accomplished by examining how advertising levels vary with a quality measure that is not observable at the time of purchase but becomes available subsequent to a model s release above average quality results in expenditures that are 15 higher than average quality outlays lending further support to the signalling hypothesis the positive advertising quality relationship holds strongest when a model significantly improves in quality relative to the previous year s model

benchmarking and incentive regulation of quality of service an application to the uk electricity distribution networks abstract quality of service has emerged as an important issue in post reform regulation of electricity distribution networks regulators have employed partial incentive schemes to promote cost saving investment efficiency and service quality this paper presents a quality incorporated benchmarking study of the electricity distribution utilities in the uk between 1991 92 and 1998 99 we calculate technical efficiency of the utilities using data envelopment analysis technique and productivity change over time using quality incorporated malmquist indices we find that cost efficient firms do not necessarily exhibit high service quality and that efficiency scores of cost only models do not show high correlation with those of quality based models the results also show that improvements in service quality have made a significant contribution to the sector s total productivity change in addition we show that integrating quality of service in regulatory benchmarking is preferable to cost only approaches

service quality in the electricity industry the role of privatization and managerial behavior abstract this paper analyzes the relationship between privatization and service quality in the electricity industry and tests the hypothesis that managerial behavior is a significant intervening factor the sample includes 31 italian distributors over the period 1998 2004 their quality performance is represented by continuity of supply an aspect of quality that is both contractible and regulated results of the empirical analysis suggest that the transfer of shareholdings to private investors does not lead to quality degradation the results also suggest that managerial dominance translates into a reduction in supply quality this effect is likely to be particularly strong for public sector utilities

the financial and operating performance of privatized firms during the 1990s this study compares the pre and postprivatization financial and operating performance of 85 companies from 28 industrialized countries that were privatized through public share offerings for the period from 1990 through 1996 we document significant increases in profitability output operating efficiency and dividend payments and significant decreases in leverage ratios for our full sample of firms after privatization and for most subsamples examined capital expenditures increase significantly in absolute terms but not relative to sales employment declines but insignificantly combined with results from two previous directly comparable studies these findings strongly suggest that privatization yields significant performance improvements during the past two decades the privatization of state owned enterprises has moved from being a radical almost desperate policy initiative of the thatcher government in britain to being an accepted economic policy for governments of all ideological stripes according to gibbon 1998 860 billion has been raised by governments worldwide through privatizations with the bulk of this total coming since 1987 and at least one commentator roche 1996 predicts that no less than 6 trillion will be raised through privatizations over the next two decades in 1997 alone sales of public enterprises totaled a record 161 billion worldwide with more than 110 billion of the total coming during the second half of the year and 1998 s total of almost 140 billion indicates that the pace shows no sign of slackening as we approach a new millennium

an analysis of forecasts of livestock prices abstract the paper studies forecasts of u s hog and cattle prices provided by both a commodity expert and organized futures markets some have argued that futures prices should be efficient forecasts of actual cash prices we show that cattle futures prices are outperformed by the expert for hogs futures prices and the expert are about equal analysis of a vector autoregression of the expert s forecasts the futures prices and actual cash prices supports the finding that cattle futures prices are not an efficient forecast of actual cash prices differing supply dynamics may account for the difference

partial privatization and firm performance most privatization programs begin with a period of partial privatization in which only non controlling shares of firms are sold on the stock market since management control is not transferred to private owners it is widely contended that partial privatization has little impact this perspective ignores the role that the stock market can play in monitoring and rewarding managerial performance even when the government remains the controlling owner using data on indian state owned enterprises we find that partial privatization has a positive impact on profitability productivity and investment widespread privatization in recent decades has generated a large empirical literature concerning the effect of ownership on firm performance most studies find that privatization has a positive impact on the profitability and efficiency of firms see megginson and netter 2001 for a recent survey 1 the firms in these studies have had a majority of their assets privatized and control rights have been transferred from the government to private owners surprisingly little is known about the effect of partial privatization where the government remains the controlling owner this paper seeks to address this gap in the literature by investigating whether the performance of state owned enterprises in india is affected by the sale of non controlling equity stakes on the stock market

price and advertising signals of product quality we present a signaling model based on ideas of phillip nelson in which both the introductory price and the level of directly uninformative advertising or other dissipative marketing expenditures are choice variables and may be used as signals for the initially unobservable quality of a newly introduced experience good repeat purchases play a crucial role in our model a second focus of the paper is on illustrating an approach to refining the set of equilibria in signalling games with multiple potential signals

improving the accuracy of outlook price forecasts this study investigates the predictive ability of outlook hog price forecasts released by iowa state university relative to alternative time series and market forecasts under root mean squared error rmse the futures market forecast is most accurate at the first and second horizon but less accurate than iowa outlook and the other forecast methods at the third horizon in terms of the individual time series models some vector autoregressions vars and bayesian vars flexible in specification and estimation and model averaging tend to perform better than iowa outlook forecasts evidence from encompassing tests more stringent tests of forecast performance indicates that many price forecasts can add incremental information to the iowa forecast simple combinations of these models and outlook forecasts are able to reduce forecast errors by economically significant levels overall the results indicate that it is possible to provide more accurate forecasts than iowa outlook at every horizon

forecast performance of wasde price projections for u s corn we conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the season average price projections for u s corn as published by the u s department of agriculture s world agricultural supply and demand estimates wasde an important issue given reduced resources and increased program scrutiny within the federal government this study is the first in the literature to evaluate the wasde corn projections relative to futures adjusted forecasts throughout the forecasting cycle using a lengthy evaluation period 1980 81 2012 13 we find that wasde projections provide lower rmses relative to futures adjusted forecasts for 9 of the 16 forecast periods 4 of which are statistically different encompassing tests show that wasde projections often provide incremental information not present in the futures adjusted forecasts composite forecasts based on futures adjusted forecasts and wasde projections reduced the rmses over all forecast periods by an average 12 16 favorable average trading profits may be generated for some forecast months using wasde projections overall our results suggest that wasde projections of the u s corn season average price provide useful information to the market and could enhance the efficiency of the agricultural sector

managerial incentives investment and aggregate implications scale effects we explore a managerial model of investment behaviour in which an incentive problem arises because one input factor managerial effort is not publicly observed we show that an optimal incentive contract leads to investment levels which are below first best in low states and that this phenomenon can account for greater cyclical variability in aggregate production and investment from the perspective of incentive scheme design a special feature of the model is that screening takes place over two variables investment and output rather than one as is customary

managerialism revisited in the light of bargaining game theory abstract this lecture proposes to view the modern firm as a coalition of shareholders employees and business partners rather than to identify it with a single maximizer such as an entrepreneur this view may be thought of as a revival of the original thought of managerialism but tries to go further by analyzing implications of the interactions of those agents on the behavior of the firm in a bargaining game theoretic framework the lecture reviews the literature on game theoretic approaches to the theory of the firm and discusses a few important theoretical and institutional issues

conspicuous consumption snobbism and conformism abstract we develop a model in which consumers purchase a conspicuous good in order to signal high income and thereby achieve greater social status in equilibrium the signalling value of conspicuous consumption depends in an identifiable way on the number of consumers and consumer behaviour is characterized by either snobbism or conformism the market demand curve for the conspicuous good may exhibit a positive slope if consumers are conformist we derive some unconventional policy implications concerning the taxation of luxuries and the voluntary provision of public goods

the impact of economic regulation on attempts to curb expense preference behavior a micro data analysis of ceo compensation schemes for electric utilities this study uses a large micro data set to present evidence which suggests that owners of regulated electric utilities have little incentive to structure ceo compensation packages in an effort to curb potential expense preference behavior because such potential behavior occurs or would occur at no cost to the firm or the firm s owners little incentive exists to structure compensation schemes in a way that would curb such behavior e g by compensating them with incentive bonus plans and stock options the results presented here augment those which examine other industries e g banking in an effort to point out the relationships between ownership organization political involvement and expense preference behavior

advertising s elusive economic rationale public policy and taxation advertising and its effects have been debated for well over a century in the last fewdecades a generally sceptical view of the benefits of advertising has been overturned by a series ofacademic advances in economics that detail a variety of ways in which advertising may affect theeconomy and society this academic work has however been paralleled by a growing popular andpolitical opposition to advertising and its social effects in this paper the positive economic case foradvertising is challenged by an assessment of the main channels of its influence and by a review ofthe associated empirical findings on its economic and wider impact a policy response of limitingthe tax deductibility of business advertising is explored

a critical assessment of the hong kong government s proposed post 2008 regulatory regime for local electricity utilities abstract in december 2005 the hong kong government issued a consultation paper on future development of the electricity markets in hong kong stage ii consultation proposing a post 2008 regulatory regime upon the expiration of the existing regulatory contract between the hong kong government and each of the two local electricity utilities we assess the proposal using the criteria of safe reliable and environmentally friendly service at the lowest rates that will allow the utilities reasonable returns on their investments we caution that if fully adopted the highly risky proposal may lead to less reliable service without the compensating benefits to the environment

does globalization influence protectionism empirical evidence from agricultural support abstract there are several motivations for domestic policy makers to protect food markets in the course of globalization on the other hand there are also theoretical arguments for why globalization should lead to less assistance to domestic farmers by using a large cross country data set and a dynamic panel data analysis i investigate the influence of globalization on protectionist policies in the agricultural sector empirically i find that globalization induces countries to increase agricultural protection this result is robust to dealing with the potential endogeneity of globalization via internal instruments generated by the system gmm model

efficiency assessment and benchmarking of thermal power plants in india abstract per capita consumption 1 of electricity in india is many folds lesser than canada usa australia japan chaina and world average even though total energy shortage 2 and peaking shortage 3 were recorded as 11 2 and 11 85 respectively in 2008 09 reflecting non availability of sufficient supply of electricity performance improvement of very small amount can lead to large contribution in financial terms which can be utilized for capacity addition to reduce demand supply gap coal fired thermal power plants are main sources of electricity in india in this paper relative technical efficiency of 60 coal fired power plants has been evaluated and compared using ccr and bcc models of data envelopment analysis target benchmark of input variables has also been evaluated performance comparison includes small versus medium versus large power plants and also state owned versus central owned versus private owned result indicates poor performance of few power plants due to over use of input resources finding reveals that efficiency of small power plants is lower in comparison to medium and large category and also performance of state owned power plants is comparatively lower than central and privately owned study also suggests different measures to improve technical efficiency of the plants

forecast encompassing as the necessary condition to reject futures market efficiency fluid milk futures the traditional necessary condition for futures market inefficiency is the existence of alternative forecasting methods that produce mean squared forecast errors smaller than the futures market here a more exacting requirement for futures market efficiency is proposed forecast encompassing using the procedure of harvey and newbold multiple forecast encompassing is tested using chicago mercantile exchange fluid milk futures time series models and usda experts provide competing forecasts results suggest milk futures do not encompass the information contained in the usda forecasts at a two quarter horizon while the competing forecasts generate positive revenues it is unlikely that returns exceed transaction costs in this relatively new market