bribes lobbying and development paign contributions or influence buying through other means as an activity that is aimed at changing existing rules or policies we view bribery in contrast as an attempt to bend or get around existing rules or policies the analysis contrasts these two means of influencing politics we use the labels lobbying and bribery for convenience and not because they are perfect defini tions for the two rent seeking activities we study in reality bribery and lobbying differ in several di mensions first lobbying is a legal and regulated activ ity in many countries whereas bribery is not second a change in the rules as a result of lobbying often af fects an entire industry whereas the return to bribery is more firm specific third a government that ponders a change in the rules might have quite different concerns than a bureaucrat considering a bribe our model cap tures all these differences possibly the most important difference however and the driving assumption in the model is that bending the rules is only temporary bu reaucrats can seldom commit to not asking for bribes in the future because corrupt deals are not enforceable in courts and because firms deal with different officials over time a legislative change on the other hand al ters the status quo and is therefore likely to last longer although policies and politicians also change over time our key assumption is that changing the rules is long lasting relative to bending them 2

relative prices as aggregate supply shocks with trend inflation ball and mankiw 1995 use a static menu cost model to explain the historical behavior of the first and higher moments of commodity price changes in u s producer prices we show that when appropriately modified for a world of positive trend inflation and forward looking behavior by firms the menu cost model predicts a much weaker possibly zero correlation between the mean and the skewness of price changes than that found in the data

the limits of central bank policy economic crisis and the challenge of effective solutions the paper examines the development of central bank policy prior to and during the recent financial crisis the argument is made that it contained multiple failures that not only generated constraints on adequately identifying and addressing the crisis but also contributed to that crisis those failures derived from a combination of theory and institutional practice specifically the use of forms of inflationary targeting based on broad adherence to the taylor rule framework and the use of versions of a conventional theoretical macro model ctmm were both problematic this was particularly so in the way policy was focused through issues of the primacy of price stability the institutional arrangements of the central banks were also problematic the division of labour between the central banks and other regulatory bodies and the limited information available within a liberalised finance system hampered efforts to fully appreciate the gravity of the situation partly due to the constraints imposed by the thinking and strategies that had been developed the central banks never got to grips with the fundamental problems of the crisis interest rate policy and liquidity provision were undertaken in ways that steadily radicalised the approaches of the banks but always in a way that was event led and always in ways that could not resolve those fundamental problems the nature of the crisis highlights the importance of transforming the approach and institutional framework of the central banks relatedly it highlights the need for a more keynesian and heterodox approach to economics within decision making bodies at central banks

macroeconometric equivalence microeconomic dissonance and the design of monetary policy abstract macroeconometric equivalence means that estimates of dsge models using first order approximations to equilibrium conditions fail to distinguish between alternative preference technology configurations microeconomic dissonance means that the underlying microeconomic differences between ostensibly equivalent models become important when optimal monetary policy is derived the relevance of these concepts is established by analysis of optimal monetary policy using a small scale new keynesian model microeconomic and financial datasets are promising tools with which to overcome the equivalence dissonance problem

evaluating unemployment policies what do the underlying theories tell us the paper surveys unemployment policies for advanced market economies and evaluates them by examining the predictions of the underlying macroeconomic theories the basic idea is that for the most part different unemployment policy prescriptions rest on different macroeconomic theories and our confidence in the prescriptions should depend at least in part on theories ability to predict some salient stylized facts about unemployment behavior the paper considers four types of policies laissez faire demand management policies supply side policies and structural policies copyright 1995 by oxford university press

unemployment with observable aggregate shocks a general equilibrium model of optimal employment contracts is developed where firms have better information about labor s marginal product than workers it is optimal for the wage to be tied to the level of employment to prevent the firm from falsely stating that the marginal product is low and cutting the wage it is shown that an observed aggregate shock that leads to an interindustry shift in labor demand and that would have no effect on total employment under symmetric information leads to a reduction in employment when firms and workers have asymmetric information

money and the dispersion of relative prices a price dispersion equation is tested with data from the german hyperinflation the equation is derived from a version of lucas s and barro s partial information localized market models in this extension different excess demand elasticities across commodities imply a testable dispersion equation in which the explanatory variable is the magnitude of the unperceived money growth in order to test this hypothesis a price dispersion series is constructed and a measure of the unperceived part of money growth is estimated the model receives support from the empirical analysis although it is evident that unincluded variables have important effects on price dispersion

interorganizational favour exchange and the relationship between doing well and doing good this article examines whether ethical business practice enhances financial performance with respect to interorganizational favour exchange we argue that the link between the ethicality and economic utility of interorganizational favour exchange is governed by 1 organizational individual interest alignment conflict and 2 the fairness or justifiability of favour exchanges from the perspective of third parties we classify interorganizational io favour exchange into four types business personal personal business personal personal and business business favour exchange our analysis shows that the first three types of favour exchange are unethical as they involve conflicts between organizational and individual interests in one or both participating organizations that negatively affect organizational value creation the last type of favour exchange involves organizational individual interest alignment in both participating organizations and positively affects the capacity of those involved in the exchange to create value favour exchanges of this fourth variety are ethically justifiable unless they unfairly damage the legitimate interests of third parties in the latter case these favour exchanges create the risk of negative third party reactions which in turn affect the sustainability of the benefits of the favour exchanges to the focal group the dyad our research results advance understanding of the ethical and economic implications of io favour exchange counter the prejudice against this behaviour in organizations provide ethical guidance for management and business practice and have implications for the relationship between doing well and doing good

on the granger causality between median inflation and price dispersion the granger causal relationship between the size and dispersion of fluctuations in sub components of the us consumer price index cpi is examined using both in sample and out of sample tests and data from january 1968 to december 2008 strong in sample evidence is found for feedback between median inflation and price dispersion the evidence for granger causation from median inflation to price dispersion remains strong in out of sample testing but is less strong for granger causation in the opposite direction the implications of these results for the variety of price level determination models in the literature are discussed

the relationship between relative prices and the general price level it is very nearly a truismi amaong neoclassical economists that the public is wont to confuse changes in the general price level with relative price changes correspondingl y one might speak of the independence between the two as one of the central postulates of the neoclassical tradition william stanley jevons was aml ong the first to identify this basic dichotomin economic life as well as to attempt to explain the ordinary citizen s seenming incapacity to understand it

inflation and labor market adjustment the implications of downward nominal and ex ante real wage rigidity and of wage contracting for the dispersion of relative wage changes in the presence of price inflation are examined rigidity implies that unexpected inflation will raise the variability of relative wage changes contracting implies unexpected inflation reduces variability using data on manufacturing industries for 1955 81 and on private nonfarm industries for1965 81 these hypotheses are studied the dispersion in relative wage cnanges is reduced by greater price inflation most of the reduction is a response to unexpected inflation expected inflation has little impact on dispersion these findings hold for subperiods within the sample and are robust to different choices of measures of price expectations including those of the livingston survey the survey research center household data and arma forecasts they stand in striking contrast to the commonly accepted result that price inflation is associated with greater dispersion of relative price changes they suggest that inflation reduces the ability of relative wages to signal disequilibria among labor markets this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

sticky price models of the business cycle can the contract multiplier solve the persistence problem we construct a quantitative equilibrium model with firms setting prices in a staggered fashion and use it to ask whether monetary shocks can generate business cycle fluctuations these fluctuations include persistent movements in output along with the other defining features of business cycles like volatile investment and smooth consumption we assume that prices are exogenously sticky for a short time persistent output fluctuations require endogenous price stickiness in the sense that firms choose not to change prices much when they can do so we find that for a wide range of parameter values the amount of endogenous stickiness is small thus we find that in a standard quantitative model staggered price setting alone does not generate business cycle fluctuations

monetary policy and inflation uncertainty in the united states and germany friedman s 16 proposition that increased inflation uncertainty may adversely affect real economic variables has received much attention over the last decade the theoretical arguments for such real effects are compelling however the empirical evidence on their presence and magnitude in different countries is mixed most results for the postwar u s economy strongly support the proposition 28 25 26 19 24 7 whereas it is generally rejected for the german economy 23 17 8 2 while a direct comparison of the u s and german results is difficult due to a lack of uniform sample periods data definitions estimation techniques and or measures of inflation uncertainty the evidence to date nevertheless suggests that the role of inflation uncertainty differs sharply between the two countries the question then arises what factor s can explain the difference one popular explanation is that the monetary authorities in the united states and germany respond quite differently to accelerating inflation 3 so that the behavior of uncertainty differs across countries 4 the u s federal reserve is often criticized for switching frequently between the primary policy goals of price stability and full employment possibly due to political pressures 21 30 since inflation is primarily a monetary phenomenon in the long run it is likely that such stop and go policies increase the uncertainty about future steady state inflation which in turn can adversely affect real output growth by reducing overall economic efficiency the german bundesbank on the other hand is reputed for its staunch and credible commitment to price stability which often takes precedence over other policy goals a more consistent and predictable

the causes of legal rents extraction evidence from spanish municipalities this paper analyzes the causes of legal political rent extraction by using a direct measure of it namely local top politicians wages in particular we investigate whether local politicians incentives to extract rents by setting their own wages are influenced by the degree of political competition and voter information we use a sample of the largest spanish municipalities over the years 2008 2010 the results indicate that weaker political competition and lesser voter information are related to more rent extraction in an additional analysis we show that higher wages do not ensure better financial management these findings confirm that when politicians can set their own salaries higher wages do not mean better management but they are just political rents

selection and monetary non neutrality in time dependent pricing models for a given frequency of price adjustment monetary non neutrality is smaller if older prices are disproportionately more likely to change selection for the age of prices provides a complete characterization of price setting frictions in time dependent models selection for older prices is weaker and non neutralities are larger if the hazard function of price adjustment is less strongly increasing selection is weaker if there is heterogeneity in price stickiness finally selection is weaker if durations of price spells are more variable in particular the taylor 1979 model exhibits maximal selection for older prices whereas the calvo 1983 model exhibits no selection

an equilibrium analysis of relative price changes and aggregate inflation abstract inflation is positively correlated with the variability of relative prices as measured by the standard deviation of the cross section distribution of prices and also with the third moment skewness of the cross section distribution of prices the conventional interpretation of these relationships is that they reflect sluggishness in the adjustment of individual prices in response to shocks in this paper we question this interpretation first we show that similar correlations among the moments exist in alternative measures of underlying technology shocks second when these shocks are fed into a general equilibrium model with multiple sectors and flexible prices the resulting prices also display a positive correlation between aggregate inflation and skewness of the cross section distribution

corruption and rent seeking the rent seeking theory was one of thefirst economic instruments developed tomodel corruption in the public sector comparing corruption with lobbying itproposes that the former is the lesser oftwo evils since lobbying entails the wastage of resources inthe competition forpreferential treatment this study showsthat the traditional rent seeking theorymisunderstands three factors first theimpact of a corrupt monopoly on the rent ssize second corruption as a motivationfor supplying preferential treatment andthird that corruption involves a narrowerrange of interests than those ofcompetitive lobbying taking these factorsinto consideration the opposite argumentis valid corruption has worse welfareimplications than alternative rent seekingactivities

a note on the variability of inflation and the dispersion of relative price changes abstract the relationship between the variance of inflation and the variability of relative price changes is analyzed empirically a strong positive association is found for 1948 1969 and 1948 1975 application of chow s test indicates structural instability and granger s test suggests a feedback effect between these variables

money for nothing politicians rent extraction and political extortion introduction the model 1 background the economic theory of regulation 2 rent extraction the theory of political extortion demonstrations 3 observing extortion the practice of rent extraction 4 validating the model empirical tests of rent extraction 5 contracting for rent preservation the durability problem extensions 6 extraction and optimal taxation excises earmarked taxes and government user charges 7 costs and benefits of interest group organization 8 improving the model worthy yet unanswered questions notes references index

inflation and unemployment the world economy today is vastly different from the 1930s when seymour harris the chairman of this meeting infected me with his boundless enthusiasm for economics and his steadfast confidence in its capacity for good works economics is very different too both the science and its subject have changed and for the better since world war ii but there are some notable constants unemployment and inflation still preoccupy and perplex economists statesmen journalists housewives and everyone else the connection between them is the principal domestic economic burden of presidents and prime ministers and the major area of controversy and ignorance in macroeconomics i have chosen to review economic thought on this topic on this occasion partly because of its inevitable timeliness partly because of a personal interest reaching back to my first published work in 1941

directly unproductive profit seeking dup activities this paper propses directly unproductive profit seeking dup activities as a general concept that embraces a wide range of recently analyzed economic activities including the subset of rent seeking activities considered by krueger it then proceeds to provide a synthesis and generalization of the welfare theoretic analysis of such activities by developing a fourfold categorization of cases depending on the levels of distortions before and after the dup activity thus a unification and overview of the subject are achieved

seeking rents by setting rents the political economy of rent seeking in recent years there has been a large number of papers on the subject of rent seeking most such works on rent seeking have taken the rent as exogenously determined by regulators regulators howeve r may also be expected and indeed have been shown to be rent seeke rs and hence the determination of the rent itself should be endogeniz ed to reflect the fact that the rent setters are themselves rent se ekers in this paper the authors do this by presenting an analysis o f the interaction of regulators firms and consumers within a rent s eeking framework where all three groups are assumed to be self motiva ted the analysis is carried out under alternative assumptions regard ing the nature of the market and the reaction functions of the partic ipants policy implications are drawn where appropriate copyright 1987 by royal economic society

thirty five years of model building for monetary policy evaluation breakthroughs dark ages and a renaissance ion from wage rigidities there are important exceptions including work at the federal reserve board by erceg henderson and levin 2000 but the approach of the more recent golosov lucas paper with perfectly flexible wages is more common in my view wage determination is still a source of inflation dynamics though not in the same rigid ways as the models in the econometrics of price determination conference while the s s model makes sense for prices it does not seem accurate for the timing of most wage changes i think that the study of wage determination needs to be put on the front research burner again a very important task for future research is an exploration of microeconomic wage data in the bls s employment cost index comparable to what klenow and kryvtsov 2005 are doing with the cpi my guess is that the characteristics of the micro wage data will look much different this content downloaded from 207 46 13 183 on thu 21 apr 2016 05 12 45 utc all use subject to http about jstor org terms john b taylor 199 from the price data moreover the micro wage data will permit one to discriminate between different staggered wage setting models as levin et al 2005 show the shape of the distribution of wage contracts in staggered wage setting models matters significantly for monetary policy econometric policy evaluation models are still too rarely used for forecasting in my view one of the best tests of a model is its ability to forecast but most forecasting models are still of the reduced form variety and only loosely connected with structural models as the stock and watson paper at this conference illustrates efforts to use the models for forecasting this will probably require more details for the simple three equation models would be very worthwhile 5 impact on actual policy what has been the impact on policy of the development of policy evaluation models described here one might ask if it was influential in building the consensus that led to the end of the great inflation perhaps the finding that inflation could be reduced with less disruption than traditional models suggested helped reduce some policymakers reluctance to take the steps to end inflation but it seems to me that people supported paul volcker s disinflation efforts mainly because they were fed up with inflation perhaps more relevant have been the simulations of alternative monetary policy rules clearly it would not have been possible to even consider such rules systematically if it were not for these models but the impact of the policy rule research itself is more difficult to prove policy rule research has of course been useful in comparing policy in different countries and in different time periods or to characterize good policy versus bad policy it has enabled central bank staff to work with interest rates as an instrument and to do so with an analytical framework it has shown that certain monetary policy principles are important such as reacting in a preemptive fashion to forecasted increases in inflation it has shown that targeting asset prices can lead to poor results and it has been helpful anytime forward looking expectations are important as in formulating a communication policy during the recent considerable period or measured pace phases it is hard to imagine these types of policy issues being analyzed rigorously without the models with rational expectations and sticky prices and wages 6 future policy issues there are many important policy issues that these types of models or their successors can be called on to analyze in the future understanding the reason for the recent reduction in pass through coefficients for exchange rates and energy prices is important for monetary policy the models that incorporate sticky prices market power and rational expectations such as golosov and lucas 2005 can be helpful this content downloaded from 207 46 13 183 on thu 21 apr 2016 05 12 45 utc all use subject to http about jstor org terms 200 money credit and banking here determining when appropriate deviations from policy rules should start and when they should end is another important practical topic finding better ways to incorporate asset prices into policy formulation is yet another nailing down the key reasons among the many conjectures for the recent improvements in output volatility is also important for future policy in my homer jones lecture taylor 1998 i argued that it was improvements in monetary policy but many other explanations have been raised but whether the future policy issues are on this list of policy examples or not it is important to keep future monetary research focused on policy issues i think this brief history of econometric policy model development clearly illustrates that economic research is most exciting and productive when it is policy driven

corruption and development a review of issues in this paper we start with a discussion of some of the different denotations of the problem of corruption we then consider the ways in which the damaging consequences of corruption operate in a developing economy while not ignoring its possible redeeming features in some cases we pursue the question of why corruption is perceptibly so different in different societies and also persistent finally we examine the feasible policy issues that arise in this context

relative price variability and inflation abstract using italian data from 1954 to 1983 it is found that relative price variability and inflation are positively correlated only during the 1970s and the early 1980s when their relationship appears to be largely induced by movements in the oil price rather than by aggregate demand shocks this result is consistent with the findings of fischer 1981 fischer 1982 for the u s and germany although in contrast to the evidence for these two countries no relationship can be detected between unexpected inflation and relative price variability furthermore the comparison between the three countries provides substantial support for the hypothesis tentatively advanced by fischer 1982 that the correlation between relative price variability and inflation is enhanced by monetary accommodation of real shocks there is also evidence that in italy both variables have been considerably affected by exchange rate movements

on inflation and real price variability this paper studies the consequences of costly price adjustments for the variability of real prices accompanying inflation for constant elasticity demand and cost of production it is shown that a higher demand a lower cost of production or a lower cost of price adjustment leads to less intertemporal variability of real prices if the marginal cost of production does not increase too fast then the average real price is less than the real price that would prevail in the absence of inflation additionally a higher demand a lower cost of production or a lower cost of price adjustment leads to a higher level of real prices

variability of inflation and the dispersion of relative prices evidence from the chinese hyperinflation of 1946 1949 abstract this paper uses data from the chinese hyperinflation of 1946 1949 to focus on the relationship between the variability in the general price level and the dispersion in relative prices the issue is important because it bears on the natural rate hypothesis which supports the postulate that these two monetary variables are independent our results reinforce the bulk of previous evidence which suggests a positive correlation between the variation in inflation rate and the dispersion in relative prices during inflationary episodes

relative prices and inflation new evidence from different inflationary contexts this paper analyses the relationship between inflation and relative price variability in the direction of the latter in two countries with very different inflationary experiences argentina and spain to address this objective using disaggregated price indexes the wholesale price index for argentina and the consumer price index for spain we delimitate different inflationary regimes and compute a set of regressions for each country our results suggest evidence in favour of the non neutrality of inflation mostly in hyperinflation periods and do not support either the menu costs or the signal extraction approaches we also detect significant structural changes in the relationship depending on the inflationary regime

diversification of macroeconomic risk and international integration of capital markets the case of mexico this article tests the arbitrage pricing theory in the context of the unstable macroeconomic years in mexico 1977 87 using information on returns on assets available to domestic investors primarily stocks traded at the local stock exchange an attempt is made to ascertain the extent to which these assets have offered premia for a set of proposed sources of risk the pervasive factors that play an important role in asset pricing in mexico are unexpected inflation unexpected money growth innovations in the standard poor s 500 price series and innovations in the dollar oil price a residual market factor is obtained using the mcelroy and burmeister model given that these risks get premia over and above the riskless rate expected rates of return in mexico have been higher during the years of erratic macroeconomic conditions mexico is not considered to be well integrated with the international capital markets because local sources of risk such as inflation are not priced in the united states whereas international sources of uncertainty such as oil price shocks are priced locally but not in the united states capital markets are becoming increasingly important in developing countries because of the international debt problem it seems unlikely that semi industrial nations will be able to raise substantial amounts of funds in the international financial markets the development and growth of modern domestic capital markets will allow these economies to tap additional savings and to improve the allocation of scarce funds organized and liquid capital markets are a vital factor in promoting overall development they provide a means of allocating capital to alternative private and public projects and they furnish essential information for evaluating investment undertakings ross 1978 black 1988

monopolistic competition and the effects of aggregate demand how important is monopolistic competition to an understanding of the effects of aggregate demand on output we ask the question at three levels can monopolistic competition by itself explain why aggregate demand movements affect output can it together with other imperfections generate effects of aggregate demand in a way that perfect competition cannot if so can it give an accurate account of the response of the economy to aggregate demand movements the answers are no yes and yes

sticky goods prices flexible asset prices monopolistic competition and monetary policy a monetary general equilibrium asset pricing model with sticky goods prices is developed goods prices are set by monopolistically competitive firms that maximize stock market value equilibria with underutilization of resources excess capacity in some states result in contrast to previous monetary asset pricing models the degree of competition affects capacity utilization monetary policy can affect output and resource utilization in addition to real asset prices depending upon the amount of information available to the monetary authority

the economics of special interest politics the case of the tariff this paper investigates the interaction of politicians and special interest lobbies the goal is to model the equilibrium levels of redistributive policies such as taxes subsidies tariffs and regulatory decisions the model is applied throughout to the setting of tariffs by contributing to political campaigns special interest lobbies generate economic returns higher tariffs generate revenue for import competing industries through higher product prices higher milk support prices raise dairy farm income and so forth the lobby invests to maximize these net economic returns in evaluating their chances of election politicians weigh the favorable effects of special interest money against the unfavorable association with the lobby and the social cost of the redistributive policy section i explores the lobby s problem it describes a formalization of mancur olson s discussion of the voluntary provision of public goods and optimal contributions by lobbies to political campaigns section ii describes determination of the equilibrium tariff positions of each politician in a political campaign

construction corrupts empirical evidence from a panel of 42 countries the construction sector whether privately or publicly financed is characterized by potentially large rents and government intervention making it vulnerable to corruption consistent with this both case study and survey evidence has been provided highlighting the problem of malfeasance in this sector in this article we test the proposition that a bigger construction sector is likely to be inimical to clean government based on a panel of 42 countries over the period 1995 2011 we control for a range of potentially confounding variables and the expectation that corrupt public officials may favor the development of this sector because it increases the volume of rents available to them our empirical evidence shows that a larger construction sector will tend to increase perceptions of the extent to which public power is exercised for private gain

state dependent or time dependent pricing does it matter for recent u s inflation in the 1988 2004 micro data collected by the u s bureau of labor statistics for the cpi price changes are frequent every 4 7 months depending on the treatment of sale prices and large in absolute value on the order of 10 the size and timing of price changes varies considerably for a given item but the size and probability of a price change are unrelated to the time since the last price change movements in aggregate inflation reflect movements in the size of price changes rather than the fraction of items changing price due to offsetting movements in the fraction of price increases and decreases neither leading time dependent models taylor or calvo nor 1 st generation state dependent models match all of these facts some 2 nd generation state dependent models however appear broadly consistent with the empirical patterns

inertial inflation indexation and price stickiness evidence from brazil abstract this paper evaluates the inertial inflation hypothesis for brazil the hypothesis posits that indexation created a feedback mechanism such that one time supply shocks were fully transmitted into permanent changes in inflation a theoretical model is used to show that this outcome is based on the assumption of perfect price flexibility however with price stickiness indexation does not produce inertial inflation the degree of inertia is then compared for two periods one without indexation 1945 1963 and one with indexation 1969 1985 finally vector autoregressive representations are estimated for the latter period allowing for price stickiness the empirical results do not support the hypothesis

monetary targets real exchange rates and macroeconomic stability abstract in this paper i develop a model to determine the optimal degree of flexibility in attaining monetary targets in an economy that is affected by shocks in the labor and financial markets i then simulate the model to assess the optimal degree of monetary policy flexibility in spain a country that has adopted monetary targets rigidly since 1978 i show that the model supports the policy choice of that country i also show that the monetary authorities should attribute more importance to real exchange rate movements in choosing their policies if the spanish economy becomes more open to international trade or if the labor market becomes more flexible

risk averse rent seekers and the social cost of monopoly power there is now quite general recognition that the social cost of monopoly power encompasses the resources expended by individuals seeking to become the beneficiaries of monopoly rents however since the activity of rent seeking is generally not observable direct estimates of resources expended in quests to acquire monopoly power are usually impossible to come by 1 as a consequence the indirect approach of taking the observed value of monopoly rents as indicative of the unobserved value of the resources expended in rent seeking is quite generally adopted in approaches to evaluation of the social cost of such activity

futures markets and the fluctuations in inflation monetary growth and asset returns inflation and nominal interest rates have been volatile in recent years futures contracts in price indices would help in this environment by enhancing information about prices and by providing a convenient means for people to hedge against inflation there is some evidence that the availability of these instruments would encourage investment and reduce the mean real rate of return on long term bonds indexed bonds which are now significant in britain serve a similar purpose in the absence of such bonds there would be a market for price index futures although the volume of trading would probably be modest this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

services inflation dynamics and persistence puzzle in brazil a time varying parameter approach this article analyses services inflation dynamics in brazil focusing on the services inflation persistence puzzle for monthly data from january 2004 to february 2016 we apply a time varying para

the return of the liquidity effect a study of the short run relation between money growth and interest rates in this article i use band pass filters to investigate the short run relationship between money growth and interest rates i find a negative correlation between short run movements in money growth and interest rates which i interpret as evidence that the liquidity effect dominates the anticipated inflation effect

output persistence from monetary shocks with staggered prices or wages under a taylor rule we analytically examine output persistence from monetary shocks in a dsge model with staggered prices or wages under a taylor rule surprisingly while taylor style staggering never yields persistence calvo style staggering of wages does generate persistence under decreasing returns to labour c 2009 elsevier b v all rights reserved

collusion and renegotiation in hierarchies a case of beneficial corruption corruption opportunities arise when a principal delegates enforcement or audit authority to a supervisor the supervisor may then strike a deal with the agent she is supposed to monitor and conceal important information from the principal corruption imposes a constraint on governance and appears therefore to be harmful for the principal we show that this need not be the case in our model the prospect of corruption can make the principal better off the reason is that the collusion possibility generates dynamic effects which in cases where only limited intertemporal commitments can be made may be beneficial for the principal

staggering the optimal monetary rule and persistence abstract the purpose of this paper is to show that persistence is not an attribute that derives from the characteristics of wage and price setting alone the structure of demand the monetary rule and the welfare loss function are also crucial determinants of the time series characteristics of the model

inflation inflation uncertainty and relative price variability this paper tests three models that predict a relationship between the variability of relative price changes rpv and aspects of inflation such as expected inflation unexpected inflation and inflation uncertainty these are respectively the menu costs model the lucas barro signal extraction model and the hercowitz cukierman extension of the lucas barro model that allows for different price elasticities of supply across markets the results imply rejection of the hypothesis that any one of the models entirely explains the relationship between inflation and rpv and also imply rejection of the hypothesis that the three models together jointly explain the relationship

mises hayek and corruption using the arguments of ludwig von mises and friedrich august von hayek i argue that private ownership solves the economic problem of corruption since private ownership discourages entrepreneurs from rent seeking and privately owned media provide objective and unbiased information to citizens any legal reform establishing and enforcement of private ownership also solves the corruption problem

on inflation and output with costly price changes a simple unifying result this paper determines the real effects of credible disinflation when price setting is staggered the results are surprising a fairly quick disinflation causes a boom this finding suggests that nominal price rigidity alone does not explain why disinflation is costly in actual economies this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

inflation uncertainty inflationary shocks and the credibility of counterinflation policy abstract this paper assesses the contributions of price shocks general price variability and the credibility of counterinflation policy to changes in inflation uncertainty in the u k uncertainty is measured by the root mean square error of consumer inflation forecasts in contrast to the assumptions of much theory uncertainty is not significantly affected by noise in individual or aggregate inflation rates factors which determine policy credibility are more important the political party in government the proximity of elections and under fixed exchange rates the rate of inflation itself however government initiatives to increase credibility through incomes policies and monetary targets have failed to reduce uncertainty

surprise party estimating the consequences of unexpected presidential election results alesina s quarterly journal of economics 102 651 678 1987 influential model of presidential elections with ideologically motivated parties attributes higher growth and lower unemployment under democratic presidents to the surprise inflation a democratic victory entails in contrast to the published literature we test this hypothesis using calcula tions of presidential election surprises consistent with the assumption of rational economic actors we confront the econometric complications attending a time series approach tak ing into account economic growth dynamics we ultimately fail to confirm the hypothesis that the level of uncertainty associated with presidential election results has an effect on economic outcomes

the phillips curve the persistence of inflation and the lucas critique evidence from exchange rate regimes comment we present evidence from the united states and the united kingdom that the persistence of price inflation is significantly higher under managed exchange rate regimes than under gold based fixed exchange rate regimes these differences are also reflected in expectations augmented phillips curves we use a two country macro model with forward looking price setters to demonstrate that higher monetary accommodation of inflation and exchange rate accommodation of inflation differentials increase inflation persistence the evidence does not contradict this hypothesis it supports the hypothesis of forward looking price setters and highlights the empirical significance of the lucas critique jel e31 e42 f33