urban energy flow processes in the beijing tianjin hebei jing jin ji urban agglomeration combining multi regional input output tables with ecological network analysis abstract regional disparity is due to economic development physical geography and lifestyle jing jin ji urban agglomeration is advocating integrated development but its development is not so smooth the goals of this research are to identify the energy utilization characteristics of the three regions and their ecological roles and to promote the integrated development of this agglomeration system to do so we used the concept of urban metabolism and abstracted sectors and energy flows as nodes and paths in a network model based on multi regional input output tables in china in 2002 and 2007 the monetary values in the tables can be converted into physical units furthermore combining these tables with ecological network analysis can assess the indirect energy consumption of each sector then its embodied energy consumption will be accounted for also this method can reflect the roles producer or consumer of the three regions and of the five sectors in each region in regional energy exchanges the results showed that hebei had the largest embodied energy consumption in both years with beijing coming second the ecological roles of the three regions did not change greatly between 2002 and 2007 hebei acted as a producer and beijing and tianjin served as consumers exploitation relationships were dominant in both years this analysis provided insights that will support planning to adjust the industrial structure and future integrated development of the agglomeration

forward looking assessment of the ghg abatement cost application to china abstract evaluation of abatement costs is critical in setting reduction goals and devising climate policy however reliable forward looking assessment of the short term effects of climate policy remains a major challenge using panel data of 30 chinese provinces during 1997 2015 we first estimate the marginal co2 abatement costs using a novel data driven approach convex quantile regression based on the marginal abatement cost estimates and china s plans regarding carbon intensity reduction and economic growth we present a forward looking assessment of the abatement costs for chinese provinces for 2016 2020 our main finding is that all the chinese provinces have a negative abatement cost which means these provinces can benefit from an increase in the absolute level of co2 emissions despite the constraint on carbon intensity the magnitudes of economic benefits exhibit a significant regional disparity because some provinces can increase more co2 emissions than others however there is still costly carbon intensity abatement relative to a counterfactual where the provinces meet their economic growth targets but in the absence of the intensity reduction constraints policy implications have been proposed to enhance the efficiency and fairness of climate policy in china

co2 emissions from china s power sector at the provincial level consumption versus production perspectives abstract the chinese electricity sector plays an important role in domestic co2 mitigation efforts due to its large contribution to overall emissions however primary energy resources used for electricity generation are not evenly distributed across the country such a supply and demand mismatch in reality results in large parts of electricity to be transferred from economically less developed provinces in the west to economic growth centres in the east a literature review shows that the emissions embodied in electricity transfer within china have not been explicitly studied although in fact they cause a shift of environmental pollution away from economically well off provinces to resource rich and less developed provinces therefore it is critical for policy makers to address this issue under such a circumstance a bottom up model is developed to calculate direct co2 emissions embodied in electricity export and import between chinese provinces it helps quantifying emissions from the power sector associated with both production and consumption perspectives and sheds lights on the environmental impact of regional supply and demand mismatch in china results show that the difference between consumption and production based co2 emissions from electricity sector in some provinces were higher than the total co2 emissions from electricity sector in netherlands in the case of beijing or as high as the total co2 emission from france s electricity sector in the case of guangdong based upon chinese realities policy implications and suggestions are made such as how to set up appropriate emission reduction targets for electricity sector at provincial level and the inclusion of consumption emissions in designing china s cap and trade mechanism the methodology and findings may be useful for investigation of embodied emissions throughout various regions of the world

substitutability among undesirable outputs in recent years economists have started to move beyond calculating regulatory effects on a pollutant by pollutant basis since their interaction is important in this study we take up this issue to allow for joint production of multiple pollutants and marketable output we specify our technology using a directional distance function this allows us to treat pollutants as joint outputs yet accounts for their undesirability we estimate the distance function for a sample of coal fired electric power plants from 1985 to 1998 which includes the first 4 years of phase i of the clean air act amendments of 1990 we focus on the interaction between so2 and no x as they became more highly regulated and estimate shadow prices of the pollutants and the morishima elasticity of transformation between two pollutants no x and so2 as well as with respect to the desirable output kilowatt hours of electricity as expected we find that power plants increase no x emissions as they decrease so2 i e they are subs

capital and the theory of productivity measurement the purpose of this paper is twofold to provide a brief survey of recent approaches to the measurement of total factor productivity and to comment on some of the special problems which are associated with capital thus in sections i iv below four approaches to the measurement of total factor productivity are outlined while section v compares and contrasts the approaches in section vi i consider how the various approaches have to be modified when welldefined rental markets for components of the capital stock do not exist the usual case

the impact of domestic trade on china s regional energy uses a multi regional input output modeling to systematically reveal how domestic trade impacts on china s regional energy uses an interprovincial input output modeling is carried out to address demand derived energy requirements for the regional economies in 2007 based on the recently available data both the energy uses embodied in final demand and interregional trade are investigated from the regional and sectoral insights significant net transfers of embodied energy flows are identified from the central and western areas to the eastern area via interregional trade shanxi is the largest energy producer and interregional embodied energy deficit receiver in contrast to guangdong as the largest energy user and surplus receiver by considering the impacts of interregional trade the energy uses of most eastern regions increase remarkably for instance shanghai hainan zhejiang beijing jiangsu and guangdong have their embodied energy requirements 87 49 19 97 13 64 12 60 6 46 and 6 38 times of their direct energy inputs respectively in contrast the embodied energy uses of some central and western regions such as inner mongolia shanxi xinjiang shaanxi and guizhou decrease largely the results help understand the hidden network linkages of interregional embodied energy flows and provide critical insight to amend china s current end reduction oriented energy policies by addressing the problem of regional responsibility transfer

a positive theory of foreign currency debt abstract this paper makes a case for foreign currency debt as a hedging device in an open economy subject to stochastic shocks to output a government can reduce uncertainty in wealth and in consumption by issuing foreign or domestic currency debt if unexpected domestic and foreign inflation are negatively correlated with domestic output foreign currency debt is desirable in comparison to domestic currency debt if growth rates of output of both countries are closely related and if domestic inflation is relatively uncertain it has an additional advantage if domestic debt creates time consistency problems

productivity growth technical progress and efficiency in their comment subhash c ray and evangelia desli 1997 hereafter rd point out that the specification of the decomposition of the malmquist productivity index used by fare et al 1994 hereafter fgnz is not unique and propose and compute an alternative specification of that decomposition we will discuss additional decompositions at the end of this note but proceed here by comparing the rd decomposition with fgnz based on both conceptual and computational grounds rd provide a discussion of the overall malmquist productivity index including the important issue of when this index is equivalent to the traditional notion of total factor productivity tfp namely under the condition that the reference technology be consistent with constant returns to scale crs as they point out this will yield a measure of tfp even if the true underlying technology is not crs for example both rd and fgnz use the crs reference technology to compute overall malmquist productivity one of the key issues raised is the role of the underlying scale properties of the benchmark technologies used to define and compute both productivity and its components in particular two reference technologies are employed in both rd and fgnz what we refer to as crs and variable returns to scale vrs technologies by construction these technologies are nested the crs technology contains the vrs technology as in figure 1 in rd this nestedness provides the logical basis for our decomposition at a very intuitive level we would argue that these two benchmarks can be used to provide bounds on the underlying true but unknown technology 2 intuitively we see the vrs technology providing a type of convex inner approximation whereas the crs technology provides a type of convex outer approximation thus these two technologies provide alternative benchmarks they do not require that the data satisfy either crs or vrs another possible intuitive interpretation is that the crs captures a perhaps hypothetical long run and the vrs approximates the short run as a reference technology the crs technology has some very useful features for example it captures the notion of maximal

firm incentives to promote technological change in pollution control reply abstract the process of technological change in pollution control is broken into three basic steps innovation diffusion and optimal agency response firm incentives to promote these steps are then examined under five regulatory regimes direct controls emission subsidies emission taxes free marketable permits and auctioned marketable permits on a relative basis emission taxes and auctioned permits provide the highest firm incentives to promote technological change at times free permits generate lower incentives direct controls which are common regulatory tools usually provide the lowest relative firm incentives to promote technological change

how is the debt managed learning from fiscal stabilizations this paper provides evidence on the behavior of public debt managers during fiscal stabilizations such episodes provide valuable information on the way debt instruments are chosen because they allow to overcome the problem that policymakers expectations of interest rates are generally not observable we find that governments increase the share of fixed rate long term debt denominated in the domestic currency the higher is the conditional volatility of short term interest rates the lower are long term interest rates and the stronger is the fall in long term rates that follows the announcement of the stabilization program by contrast conventional measures of the relative cost of issuing long term debt such as the long short interest rate spread are not significant this evidence suggests that debt managers tend to prefer long to short maturity debt because they are concerned about the risk of refinancing at higher than expected interest rates however when long term rates are high relative to their expectations they issue short maturity debt to minimize borrowing costs

from production based to consumption based national emission inventories abstract under the united national framework convention of climate change unfccc countries are required to submit national emission inventories nei to benchmark reductions in greenhouse gas ghg emissions depending on the definition and system boundary of the nei the mitigation options and priorities may vary the territorial system boundary used by the unfccc has been critiqued for not including international transportation and potentially causing carbon leakage to address these issues past literature has argued in favour of using consumption based nei in climate policy this article discusses several issues in moving from the standard production based nei to consumption based nei first two distinct accounting approaches for constructing consumption based nei are presented the approaches differ in the allocation of intermediate consumption of imported products second a consistent method of weighting production based and consumption based nei is discussed this is an extension of the previous literature on shared responsibility to nei third due to increased uncertainty and a wide system boundary it may be difficult to implement consumption based nei directly into climate policy several alternative options for incorporating consumption based inventories into climate policy are discussed

natural gas overview for world economy from primary supply to final demand via global supply chains abstract as the world is smoothing the transition towards a low carbon energy structure natural gas has occupied a critical position in global energy supply also globalization has catalyzed ever increasing indirect energy flows in international trade in order to present a comprehensive overview of natural gas use in globalized economy this paper applies the systems multi regional input output mrio analysis to track natural gas use from primary suppliers to final consumers via the links by producers in the world economy supported by typical statistics for the year of 2011 natural gas embodied in international trade is revealed amounting to 2722 1 bcm in magnitude up to 90 of total gas extraction for energy use indicating the intensive relocation of gas use by trade 83 of traded embodied natural gas is associated with intermediate trade mainly from leading primary suppliers including russia usa and western asia to dominant final consumers like usa eu27 and east asia significant differences are found between direct and embodied natural gas flows consumption based resource efficiency can break the illusion of efficiency improvements and trade imbalance in terms of gas use can be opposite to the trade imbalance in conventional monetary terms this paper has constructed a comprehensive analytical framework to trace natural gas flows in globalized economy for the first time aiming to provide new insights for policy making

time consistent collection of optimal seigniorage a unifying framework this paper reviews the existing literature on the time consistency problem of seigniorage collection when monetary policy is determined by optimal taxation considerations it develops a unifying accounting framework and suggests a general measure for seigniorage which encompasses the standard measures employed in the literature in addition the ex ante optimal solution to the optimal taxation problem is derived and interpreted in relation to the ramsey principle we show that the different recommendations of the public finance literature i e the friedman rule of optimal deflation moderately positive inflation and seigniorage maximizing inflation are specific solutions to the optimal taxation problem the paper continues with a formal illustration of the time consistency problem of the ex ante optimal policy and the characterization of the time consistent solution under discretion as possible solutions to the time consistency problem we consider reputational forces institutional reforms that establish central bank independence and specific ways of asset and debt management in particular it is formally shown that a modified version of the asset and debt management scheme suggested by persson persson and svensson is not only necessary but also sufficient for optimality although this did not hold in their model

time consistent fiscal policy and government cash flow abstract this short paper provides an interpretation and some extensions of lucas and stokey s results on optimal fiscal policy the discussion relies heavily on the concept of government cash flow which is related but not equal to the budget surplus time consistency of the optimal policy requires that a positive cash flow is used to buy up some debt of each maturity and contingency

supply side structural effect on carbon emissions in china abstract this paper carries out a structural decomposition analysis sda of production related carbon emissions in china from 1992 to 2005 by adopting the ghosh input output model it finds that the supply side structure measured by sectoral shares in value added increased production related carbon emissions in 1992 2002 mainly due to the rapid growth of manufacturing sectors but reduced them in 2002 2005 thanks to the decreased shares of carbon intensive sectors whatever the supply side structure forward carbon multipliers of each sector or changes in supply side sectoral shares and related emissions effects calculated by adopting the ghosh input output model were different from their demand side counterparts estimated by adopting the leontief input output model the results suggest optimizing the supply side structure and lowering the forward carbon multipliers to control carbon emissions in the future

consumption baskets and currency choice in international borrowing abstract we propose a novel explanation for the empirically low prevalence of external borrowing in local currency in emerging market economies a phenomenon sometimes referred to as the original sin of international finance we study the endogenous currency denomination of an emerging economy s assets and liabilities within the context of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model with portfolio choice featuring non tradable goods and nominal rigidities we find that these features lower the correlation between the local currency and domestic lenders consumption they thus reduce the risk premium demanded by domestic lenders on local currency debt and can therefore help explain the low willingness of foreigners to lend in local currency

the hotspots reference routes and research trends of marginal abatement costs a systematic review abstract as one of the most effective means of evaluating environmental policies marginal abatement costs macs have been adopted in a growing body of research this study characterizes the mac related literature from 1993 to 2018 on web of science based on a systematic review bibliometric analysis and mind mapping the results classify the research hotspots into influential factors methods and empirical applications the three most frequently mentioned influential factors are technical change discount rates and energy prices compared with top down models bottom up models including engineering model and expert based method are the most widely used improvements in the former focus on strengthening market behavior effect while those in the latter aim to overcome the weaknesses of negative costs and lack of interaction across measures mac applications focus on environmental policies with two new research areas recently emerging co benefits and sectoral abatement costs furthermore a reference route is proposed by summarizing the applicability of methods and matching relationships among influential factors methods and empirical problems finally potential research directions are summarized based on the identified research hotspots and a similar co word analysis in marginal cost field such as considering the effects of both multiple influential factors and the interaction among factors on maccs

a nonparametric method to estimate a technical change effect on marginal abatement costs of u s coal power plants the literature usually assumes that technical change reduces marginal abatement cost however recent results suggest that precisely the opposite occurs this paper proposes a nonparametric method to determine the effect of technical change on marginal abatement cost the method decomposes nox marginal abatement cost changes in 2000 2004 and in 2004 2008 for 325 boilers operating in 134 u s bituminous coal power plant into technical and non technical change effects we find that technical change reduces the nox marginal cost about 28 3 in 2000 2004 and 26 5 in 2004 2008 however more stringent regulations enacted the nox budget program results in lower nox emission levels as plant operators install more advanced nox abatement equipment which in turn causes an overall increase in marginal abatement cost

instrument choice for environmental protection when technological innovation is endogenous this paper compares qualitatively and quantitatively the welfare effects of emissions taxes auctioned emissions permits and free grandfathered permits when technological innovation is endogenous we find that there is no unambiguous case for preferring any of these policy instruments the relative welfare ranking of instruments depends on the costs of innovation the extent to which innovations can be imitated the slope and level of the marginal environmental benefit function and the number of polluting firms we illustrate the types of situations when there can be significant welfare discrepancies between the policies and when there are not

indexing and inflation abstract much of the opposition to indexation as a means of adapting to ongoing inflation arises from the view that indexation is itself inflationary this paper examines the basic for that view in a simple macroeconomic model in which budget deficits are in part financed through the printing of money it is shown that all aspects of indexing wage indexation bond indexation and tax indexation tend to increase the impact on the price level of any inflationary shock however this association between indexation and inflation is in large part a consequence of the monetary and fiscal policies being followed by the government evidence from a cross section of forty countries on the effects of indexation on the inflationary impact of the oil price shock of 1973 1974 suggests that indexation did not in general increase the inflationary impact of the oil shock the evidence is further consistent with the view that the absence of an excess inflationary effect of indexation is a result of the countries with substantial indexation not having accommodated the oil price shock as much as other countries

co2 emission abatement cost and its decomposition a directional distance function approach accurately estimating carbon dioxide co2 abatement costs and effectively identifying the factors impacting those costs can improve the applicability and effectiveness of policy implementation this paper proposes a new method to estimate co2 abatement costs cac based on the directional distance function the method theoretically decomposes cac into carbon productivity and output elasticity of substitutions this decomposition can identify the types of cac the method also investigates the effects of development mode selection on cac by selecting different directional vectors following the theoretical discussion an empirical study is presented focusing on high energy consumption firms in the united states u s the results were as follows 1 in sustainable development mode changes in the average cac of all firms were caused both by carbon productivity and output elasticity of substitution carbon productivity dominated cac differences among different firm types 2 in general the amelioration potential of firm technology and environmental management was gradually explored by firms during sample period corresponding environmental regulatory strategies are needed for firms with different cac characteristics 3 firms selecting different development modes will realize significant differences in cac firms in the sustainable development mode had the highest cac levels however this mode was best for achieving a win win between economic benefits and environmental protection

toward a new conception of the environment competitiveness relationship accepting a fixed trade off between environmental regulation and competitiveness unnecessarily raises costs and slows down environmental progress studies finding high environmental compliance costs have traditionally focused on static cost impacts ignoring any offsetting productivity benefits from innovation they typically overestimated compliance costs neglected innovation offsets and disregarded the affected industry s initial competitiveness rather than simply adding to cost properly crafted environmental standards can trigger innovation offsets allowing companies to improve their resource productivity shifting the debate from pollution control to pollution prevention was a step forward it is now necessary to make the next step and focus on resource productivity

technical change and the marginal cost of abatement abstract we address one aspect of the treatment of technical change in the environmental economics literature how technical change impacts the marginal cost of abatement we review a selection of papers that employ a variety of representations of technical change and show that these representations have quite different and sometimes surprising effects on the marginal costs of pollution reductions we argue that these varied representations in fact correspond to a variety of different technology options we then present results indicating that this representation matters the impacts of technical change on the marginal cost of abatement can crucially impact policy analysis

promises and pitfalls in environmentally extended input output analysis for china a survey of the literature abstract as the world s largest developing economy china plays a key role in global climate change and other environmental impacts of international concern environmentally extended input output analysis ee ioa is an important and insightful tool seeing widespread use in studying large scale environmental impacts in china calculating and analyzing greenhouse gas emissions carbon and water footprints pollution and embodied energy this paper surveys the published articles regarding ee ioa for china in peer reviewed journals and provides a comprehensive and quantitative overview of the body of literature examining the research impact environmental issues addressed and data utilized the paper further includes a discussion of the shortcomings in official chinese data and of the potential means to move beyond its inherent limitations

china s energy consumption under the global economic crisis decomposition and sectoral analysis abstract it is now widely recognized that there is a strong relationship between energy consumption and economic growth most countries energy demands declined during the economic depression of 2008 2009 when a worldwide economic crisis occurred as an export oriented economy china suffered a serious exports decline in the course of the crisis however it was found that energy consumption continued to increase against such a background this paper aims to assess and explain the factors causing the growth of energy consumption in china first we will explain the impact of domestic final use and international trade on energy consumption by using decomposition analysis second embodied energy and its variation across sectors are quantified to identify the key sectors contributing to the growth lastly the policy implications for long term energy conservation are discussed the results show that the decline in exports was one of the driving forces for energy consumption reduction in the crisis but that the growth of domestic demand in manufacturing and construction largely stimulated by economic stimulus plans had the opposite effect on energy consumption international trade contributed to decreasing energy consumption of china during and after the crisis because the structure of exports and imports changed in this period

trade in nominal assets and net international capital flows abstract nominal assets play a major role in international financial markets while trade in indexed bonds is limited as a result agents are exposed to both price and exchange rate uncertainty nonetheless previous research on net capital flows has assumed the presence of a risk free vehicle to intertemporal asset trade in this paper we develop a general equilibrium intertemporal model with trade limited to nominal bonds and equity we find that exposure to nominal risk dampens net capital flows thus making economies effectively more closed

currency crises and monetary policy in an economy with credit constraints this paper presents a simple model of currency crises which is driven by the interplay between the credit constraints of private domestic firms and the existence of nominal price rigidities the possibility of multiple equilibria including a currency crisis equilibrium with low output and a depreciated domestic currency results from the following mechanism if nominal prices are sticky a currency depreciation leads to an increase in the foreign currency debt repayment obligations of firms and thus to a fall in their profits this reduces firms borrowing capacity and therefore investment and output in a credit constrained economy which in turn reduces the demand for the domestic currency and leads to a depreciation we examine the impact of various shocks including productivity fiscal or expectational shocks we then analyze the optimal monetary policy to prevent or solve currency crises we also argue that currency crises can occur both under fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes as the primary source of crises is the deteriorating balance sheet of private firms

time consistency of monetary policy in the open economy abstract this paper shows that in an open economy time consistency problems are created not only by nominal government debt but also by nominal private debt to foreigners given any external nominal debt inflation redistributes wealth between domestic residents and foreigners a government that cares about the welfare of its residents will be tempted to inflate whenever it or its residents have issued nominal debt to foreigners an analysis of the u s net investment position shows that these international considerations have become increasingly relevant for the united states because the recent external deficits have largely been financed in nominal terms

decomposition of the fisher ideal index of productivity a non parametric dual analysis of us airlines data in this paper we offer a non parametric method of decomposing the fisher ideal index of productivity into individual factors measuring i technical efficiency change ii allocative efficiency change iii shift in the cost function iv scale economies due to output change and v an adjustment factor reflecting change in the output attributes cross section data from the us airline industry for the years i 983 and i 984 are utilised in an empirical application illustrating this method the rate of multifactor productivity growth mfpg over time in the single output multiple input case can be measured by the difference in the rates of growth in the quantity of output and the divisia index of input quantity when no technical inefficiency exists this rate of mfpg can be decomposed into two additive components i the rate of technical change measuring the rate of change in the volume of output holding the input bundle unchanged and ii a returns to scale effect showing change in productivity with changes in the input quantities without technical change when technical efficiency varies over time a part of the measured rate of mfpg would be due to efficiency

decomposition analysis of debt s impact on china s energy consumption abstract debt can influence the energy consumption of private sectors and public agencies by changing their fiscal budget constraints from 1996 to 2016 china has had rapid debt growth and become the second largest borrower in the world additionally china has been the largest energy consumer since 2009 the impact of debt growth on its energy consumption however is not much addressed in the literature using an extended lmdi model we investigate the impact of china s debt on its energy consumption from 1996 to 2016 in a new way the results show that 1 among the closed set of debt related factors and other conventional variables studied private debt per capita makes the strongest contribution to china s energy consumption and population has a moderate impact on the growth of energy consumption 2 energy efficiency improvement output efficiency of government debt debt structure adjustment and increased tertiary industry share are mitigating forces of energy consumption these results provide a new holistic perspective for the chinese government to formulate synergistic policies of risk control and pollution control

optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital abstract this paper is concerned with the structure and time consistency of optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital in a dynamic context optimal taxation means distributing tax distortions over time in a welfare maximizing way for a barter economy our main finding is that with debt commitments of sufficiently rich maturity structure an optimal policy if one exists is time consistent in a monetary economy the idea of optimal taxation must be broadened to include an inflation tax and we find that time consistency does not carry over an optimal inflation tax requires commitment by rules in a sense that has no counterpart in the dynamic theory of ordinary excise taxes the reason time consistency fails in a monetary economy is that nominal assets should from a welfare maximizing point of view always be taxed away via an immediate inflation in a kind of capital levy this emerges as a new possibility when money is introduced into an economy without capital

pollution abatement activities and traditional productivity abstract this study models the joint production of good and bad output production and calculates traditional productivity when bad output production is regulated and when it is unregulated we apply this model to data for u s coal fired electric power plants for 1985 1995 and compare rates of productivity and technical change to gain an understanding of the association between pollution abatement activities and traditional rates of productivity and technical change while traditional productivity and technical change associated with abatement activities decline we conclude they are not statistically significant

neoclassical versus frontier production models testing for the skewness of regression residuals the empirical literature on production and cost functions is divided into two strands 1 the neoclassical approach that concentrates on model parameters 2 the frontier approach that decomposes the disturbance term to a symmetric noise term and a positively skewed inefficiency term we propose a theoretical justification for the skewness of the inefficiency term arguing that this skewness is the key testable hypothesis of the frontier approach we propose to test the regression residuals for skewness to distinguish the two competing approaches our test builds directly upon the asymmetry of regression residuals and does not require any prior distributional assumptions

inflationary finance under discrepion and rules inflationary finance involves first the tax on cash balances from expected inflation and second a capital levy from unexpected inflation from the standpoint of minimizing distortions these capital levies are attractive ex post to the policymaker in a full equilibrium two conditions hold 1 the monetary authority optimizes subject to people s expectations mechanisms and 2 people form expectations rationally given their knowledge of the policymaker s objectives the outcomes under discretionary policy are contrasted with those generated under rules in a purely discretionary regime the monetary authority can make no meaningful commitments about the future behavior of money and prices under an enforced rule it becomes possible to make some guarantees hence the links between monetary actions and inflationary expectations can be internalized there is a distinction between fully contingent rules and rules of simple form a simple rule allows the internalization of some connections between policy act ion and inflationary expectations but discretion permits some desirable flexibility of monetary growth this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

public debt indexation and denomination with an independent central bank abstract this paper examines the interaction between public debt management and the design of monetary institutions the analysis shows that delegation of monetary policy to an independent central bank is more effective in containing inflationary expectations than the use of foreign currency or inflation indexed debt if delegation of monetary policy is viable the optimal policy is to issue nominal debt this increases the sensitivity of taxes and output to unexpected inflation thus minimizing the inflation needed to offset supply shocks evidence on central bank independence debt composition and output variability suggests that the normative argument has some positive content

why do we have nominal government debt abstract we study the choice between nominal and indexed debt in a stochastic macroeconomic model with discretionary monetary and fiscal policy with distortionary taxes nominal debt provides valuable insurance against the budgetary effects of economic fluctuations we show that a welfare maximizing government always issues some nominal debt even though nominal debt increases inflation along the time consistent path of the economy the result is fairly robust with respect to changes in assumptions about policy constraints and about the macroeconomic setting

allocation of pollution abatement under learning by doing abstract this paper examines how learning by doing affects the allocation of pollution abatement between heterogeneous technologies over time the optimal policy balances current abatement costs against reductions in future costs and infant technologies may be preferred to mature technologies despite greater initial costs we characterize when a technological winner might emerge and we identify conditions under which optimal abatement is shared across all technologies pigouvian taxes can implement the first best but may need to be differentiated across technologies when technical change is induced an important role of environmental policies is to put abatement on the right technological trajectories

energy saving implications from supply chain improvement an exploratory study on china s consumer goods retail system abstract despite significant public attentions to green supply chain management few studies have explicitly addressed the energy implications of consumer goods supply surplus especially in developing countries like china this study explored the energy saving potential from improving supply chain efficiencies and reducing excess inventory in china s retail system from a life cycle perspective through embodied energy analysis we found that energy invested pre manufacture contributed 80 95 of the total energy embodied in consumer products although embodied energy intensities had declined by 60 90 since the mid 1990s the lessened marginal improvements implied that low hanging fruits have largely been captured and the search for new opportunities for energy saving is in demand positive correlations between total economic inputs and embodied energy in consumer goods indicated possible synergy effect between cost reduction and energy saving in supply system management and structural path analysis identified sector specific energy management priorities for each retail related sector this study suggested that improving supply chain efficiencies provides a promising supplement to china s current industrial energy efficient projects which target reducing direct energy use per se as an intra firm cost saving measure from the life cycle perspective the definition of green sector might have to be reconsidered in china towards a more energy efficient economy and society

assessment of regional trade and virtual water flows in china the success of china s economic development has left deep marks on resource availability and quality some regions in china are relatively poor with regards to water resources this problem is exacerbated by economic growth flourishing trade activities on both domestic and international levels have resulted in significant amounts of water withdrawal and water pollution hence the goal of this paper is to evaluate the current inter regional trade structure and its effects on water consumption and pollution via virtual water flows virtual water is the water embedded in products and used in the whole production chain and that is traded between regions or exported to other countries for this assessment of trade flows and effects on water resources we have developed an extended regional input output model for eight hydro economic regions in china to account for virtual water flows between north and south china the findings show that the current trade structure in china is not very favorable with regards to water resource allocation and efficiency north china as a water scarce region virtually exports about 5 of its total available freshwater resources while accepting large amounts of wastewater for other regions consumption by contrast south china a region with abundant water resources is virtually importing water from other regions while their imports are creating waste water polluting other regions hydro ecosystems

emergy network analysis of chinese sectoral ecological sustainability abstract ecological sustainability of the chinese economy is vital for china as well as for the world by integrating environmental input output analysis emergy theory and a complex network model into one framework this paper explores chinese sectoral ecological sustainability with the most recent 2012 input output table the results show that there are significant differences in emergy intensities among sectors the non metal mining sector is the most emergy intensive sector at 6 06e 17 sej 10000 yuan followed by the metal mining sector additionally output connections have a positive impact on the emergy yield ratio input connections exert a negative impact on the emergy yield ratio and pagerank centrality has a positive effect on the environmental loading ratio this paper updates the chinese sectoral emergy assessment identifies key sectors in the chinese ecological network and analyzes the impact of network indicators on sectoral emergy performance these analyses will be useful in updating the guide for adjusting industrial structure in china

stochastic inflation and government provision of indexed bonds abstract this paper examines the consequences of using indexed bonds as one of the government financing instruments along with money and taxes it is shown that open market operations between money and indexed bonds do not matter in a real sense despite their different risk characteristics increasing the share of indexed bonds in the government portfolio increases the volatility and the conditional mean of real rates of return on money when provided by means other than open market operations indexed bonds can affect the allocation of resources but these reallocations cannot be pareto improving

estimating the shadow prices of so2 and nox for u s coal power plants a convex nonparametric least squares approach abstract weak disposability between outputs and pollutants defined as a simultaneous proportional reduction of both outputs and pollutants assumes that pollutants are byproducts of the output generation process and that a firm can freely dispose of both by scaling down production levels leaving some inputs idle based on the production axioms of monotonicity convexity and weak disposability we formulate a convex nonparametric least squares cnls quadratic optimization problem to estimate a frontier production function assuming either a deterministic disturbance term consisting only of inefficiency or a composite disturbance term composed of both inefficiency and noise the suggested methodology extends the stochastic semi nonparametric envelopment of data stoned described in kuosmanen and kortelainen 2011 applying the method to estimate the shadow prices of so 2 and no x generated by u s coal power plants we conclude that the weak disposability stoned method provides more consistent estimates of market prices

non parametric efficiency progress and regress measures for panel data methodological aspects this purely methodological paper deals with the role of time in non parametric efficiency analysis using both fdh and dea technologies it first shows how each observation in a panel can be characterized in efficiency terms vis a vis three different kinds of frontiers i contemporaneous ii sequential and iii intertemporal these are then compared with window analysis next frontier shifts outward and inward interpreted as progress or regress are considered for the two kinds of technologies and computational methods are described in detail for evaluating such shifts in either case these are also contrasted with what is measured by the malmquist productivity index finally an alternative way of identifying progress and regress independent of the frontier notion and referring instead to some benchmark notion is extended here to panel data

time consistency of fiscal and monetary policy the problem of time inconsistency arises from two different sources first as shown by guillermo a calvo 1978 the re is an incentive for each government to engage in an initial unanti cipated inflation second as discussed by robert e lucas and nancy l stokey 1983 there is an incentive for each government to deviat e from the path of taxes announced by the preceding government in th is paper it is shown that these two sources of time inconsistency ca n be removed by a particular method of debt management involving bot h nominal and indexed government bonds of various maturities copyright 1987 by the econometric society

comprehensive evaluation of household indirect energy consumption and impacts of alternative energy policies in china by input output analysis abstract households consume a large amount of indirect energy through the consumption of goods and services this fact makes the quantitative analysis of indirect household energy consumption the foundation of energy policy design this paper improves the compilation method of energy input output tables and establishes a sequence of energy input output tables for china based on these tables the indirect energy consumption of both rural and urban households is calculated then with economic data for the year of 2005 the adjusted input output price model is applied to evaluate how the alternative energy policies impact production prices consumption prices and real income of rural and urban households through the mechanism of indirect energy consumption by using electricity as an example this research has practical implications for chinese economy the integration of energy efficiency improvements and energy prices increase serves as a means to achieve both economic and energy conservation goals and may also have a positive effect on residents real income and a minimal effect on production prices

structural analysis of material flows in china based on physical and monetary input output models abstract the physical input output pio model has different product flow scopes from the monetary input output mio model using the pio and mio models to analyze the structure of material flows can identify new hotspots for policy decisions over each other however pio models are not well studied in existing studies on the structure of china s material flows this study uses both the pio and mio models to analyze consumption based material flows of chinese sectors and critical supply chain paths leading to china s material flows results show that the pio and mio models validate each other by simultaneously identifying critical sectors and important final demand categories however product prices and the treatment of services lead to different findings based on the mio and pio models compared with the pio model the mio model underestimates the contribution of the construction sector to china s material flows but overestimates that of the equipment and machinery and other services sectors the pio model reveals the higher importance of rural household consumption while the mio model identifies more critical supply chain paths associated with services the pio and mio models can complement each other in the implementation and assessment of environmental measures e g production efficiency improvement

money and interest in a cash in advance economy the authors analyze an aggregative general equilibrium model in which the use of money is motivated by a cash in advance constraint applied to purchases of a subset of consumption goods the system is subject to both real and monetary shocks which are economy wide and observed by all they develop methods for verifying the existence of characterizing and explicitly calculating equilibria copyright 1987 by the econometric society

the shadow prices of co2 and so2 for chinese coal fired power plants a partial frontier approach abstract shadow prices are widely employed in guiding environmental policies this paper contributes to the literature by developing a novel partial frontier approach for estimating shadow prices the proposed method is advanced in handling outliers and provides a precise estimation of the marginal rate of substitution along the production frontier to cope with the different disposability characteristics of undesirable emissions so2 is treated as an environmental input that is strongly disposable because most different undesirable outputs are jointly reduced this study is the first to use directional derivatives instead of partial derivatives and proposes a new separation method that separates individual directional shadow price from the cost of joint reduction of multiple undesirable outputs we apply the proposed method to a sample of 93 coal fired power plants covering six years the estimated average shadow prices of co2 and so2 are 69 tonne and 2525 tonne under the newly developed partial frontiers when assuming some undesirable output to be strongly disposable both shadow prices fall 20 32 tonne and 1018 23 tonne the present paper suggests the estimated shadow prices will be much different across different levels of disposability the cost of joint reduction is calculated as 91 05 unit given the current production level which leads to a directional shadow price for the two undesirable outputs of 91 32 tonne and 1250 06 tonne the estimated shadow prices for both undesirable outputs dispersed widely under the partial frontiers spatial distribution of estimated shadow prices shows that coastal provinces and municipalities have higher co2 shadow prices but lower so2 shadow prices whereas the northeast provinces are the opposite the co2 shadow price is comparatively stable over the study period while the so2 shadow price fluctuates policy implications are discussed

the role of saving and investment in exchange rate determination under alternative monetary mechanisms abstract we argue that the demand for national currencies depends on existing payment arrangements for imports and exports therefore exchange rate movements depend on these arrangement as a result the relationship between exchange rate movements and various macroeconomic aggregates like saving and investment depend on what we call the monetary mechanism these points are explicitly demonstrated by studying two extreme monetary mechanisms one in which all payments are done with the seller s currency and one in which all payments are done with the buyer s currency

a corporate balance sheet approach to currency crises this paper presents a general equilibrium currency crisis model of the third generation in which the possibility of currency crises is driven by the interplay between private firms credit constraints and nominal price rigidities despite our emphasis on microfoundations the model remains sufficiently simple that the policy analysis can be conducted graphically the analysis hinges on four main features i ex post deviations from purchasing power parity ii credit constraints a la bernanke gertler iii foreign currency borrowing by domestic firms iv a competitive banking sector lending to firms and holding reserves and a monetary policy conducted either through open market operations or short term lending facilities we derive sufficient conditions for the existence of a sunspot equilibrium with currency crises we show that an interest rate increase intended to support the currency in a crisis may not be effective but that a relaxation of short term lending facilities can make this policy effective by attenuating the rise in interest rates relevant to firms

embodied energy use in china s industrial sectors abstract as the world s top energy consumer china is facing a great challenge to solve its energy supply issue in this paper energy use from all industrial sectors in china s economy of 2007 was explored by conducting an extended environmental input output analysis we compare the energy consumption embodied in the final demand for goods and services from 29 sectors with the energy demand required for the actual production process in each sector two different viewpoints for sectoral energy use have been presented energy use is directly allocated to the producer entity and energy use is reallocated to sector s supply chain from consumption perspective our results show that considerable amount of energy use is embodied in the supply chain especially for construction and other service activities sectors which is not detected if energy use is allocated on a production basis when further dividing embodied energy consumption into direct energy consumption and indirect energy consumption total indirect energy consumption is much higher than that of total direct energy consumption accounting for 80 6 of total embodied energy consumption in 2007 our results provide a more holistic picture on sectoral energy consumption and therefore can help decision makers make more appropriate policies

should government smooth exchange rate risk abstract a general equilibrium model is built to explain if there are circumstances in which exchange rate risk smoothing errs policies may bring a pareto improvement for an indebted small open home economy the model shows that this is the case when overpessimistic foreign creditors demand a large spread on the default risk free world interest rate whose size can be reduced by errs policies and in addition market imperfections such as information asymmetry between foreign investors and domestic debtors prevent the home economy s residents from internalizing all benefits and costs of the exchange rate risk reallocation into their allocative decisions

examining the resilience of national energy systems measurements of diversity in production based and consumption based electricity in the globalization of trade networks abstract energy is a critical component of achieving sustainable development in addition to the three aspects of promoting access renewables and efficiency the dimension of resilience in energy systems should also considered the implementation of resilient energy systems requires a quantitative understanding of the socio economic practices underlying such systems specifically in line with the increasing globalization of trade there remains a critical knowledge gap on the link between embodied energy in the production and consumption of traded goods to bridge this knowledge gap we investigate the resilience of global energy systems through an examination of a diversity measure of global embodied electricity trade based on multi regional input output mrio networks the significance of this research lies in its ability to utilize high resolution mrio data sets in assessing the resilience of national energy systems this research indicates that secure and responsible consumption requires the diversification of not only energy generation but also energy imports this research will lay the ground for further research in the governance of resilience in global energy networks

energy use by chinese economy a systems cross scale input output analysis abstract an overview for energy use in chinese economy is presented in this study by means of a systems cross scale input output analysis to concretely reflect the cross scale effect between china and the rest of the world embodied energy intensity of foreign imports is provided on the basis of our recent work on the world economy in contrast to the conventional assumption of the same intensity for both the foreign and domestic trade in 2012 the energy embodied in gross fixed capital formation is found to constitute nearly half of the total energy use in china three quarters larger than the total household consumption approximately 40 of energy resources embodied in final use turn out to be imported from foreign regions twice the share of the direct energy imports in total energy consumption recorded by traditional direct accounting the trade imbalance in energy use is illustrated with the support of the law of comparative advantage in addition to economic benefits hidden social impacts including indirect external dependence and health costs associated with non energy trade should also be considered by the government in industrial structure adjustment the present embodiment study is expected to be remarkably supportive for sustainable energy policy making in china

driving forces of rapid co2 emissions growth a case of korea abstract this study aims to investigate korea s final demand structure and its impacts on co 2 emissions in order to reduce co 2 emissions and develop environmental policy directions based on the environmentally extended input output model this study adopts a two step approach 1 to estimate the embodied emissions and their intensities for 393 sectors induced by final demand and 2 to calculate the driving factors of emission growth between 2003 and 2011 and then evaluate the result by using structural decomposition analysis sda the findings of this study demonstrate that the impact of composition change in export with less embodied emission intensities tends to offset the increase in co 2 emission by the export scale growth the relatively low residential electricity price has resulted in the rapid growth of household electricity consumption and significantly contributed to emissions growth the result of sda indicates that korea s final demand behavior yielded high carbonization over the same period the findings suggest that korean government should promote exports in industries with less embedded co 2 in order to protect environments in addition emission information of each product and service should be provided for consumers to change their purchase patterns towards contributing to low carbon emissions as active players

does exchange rate stability increase trade and welfare we develop a simple general equilibrium framework to study the effect of the exchange rate system on trade and welfare an important feature of the model is deviations from purchasing power parity caused by rigid price setting in buyers currency we find the following first exchange rate stability is not necessarily associated with more trade in a simple benchmark model with separable preferences and only monetary shocks trade is unaffected by the exchange rate system consistent with most evidence second both trade and welfare can be higher under either exchange rate system depending on preferences and on the monetary policy rules followed under each system finally in general there is no one to one relationship between the levels of trade and welfare across exchange rate systems

the applicability of marginal abatement cost approach a comprehensive review abstract the marginal abatement cost mac methodology is widely used in climate change policies policy makers rely on mac to assess feasible strategies and related costs to achieve emission reduction goals this paper introduces a variety of mac methodologies aiming at solving diverse problems which utilizes various calculable logic thus producing different results and implications this study applies a mind mapping method to capture differentiation of mac methods and systematically classify mac methodologies the applicability path analysis was proposed based on principles such as stakeholder type decision making objectives cost concept strategy mode and information scope our goal is to assess the applicability of different methodologies to reduce misuse by policy makers and to serve as a guide for subsequent research which might prompt and lead to the derivation of more consequential results in future studies the results of this study suggest that the complex method is not always better than the simplified method because policy makers are required to select the appropriate method according to the type of information needed it may even be suggested that mac could be reliable by ranking relative value of options compared with baseline rather than focusing on the absolute value of individual measures

the financial structure of government debt in oecd countries an examination of the time consistency issue abstract this paper analyzes the financial structure of government debt in the oecd countries from the perspective of time consistency problems with a focus on debt held by financial institutions testable implications from a theoretical time consistency model are derived and incorporated into the framework of a cost minimizing model for public debt service the approach is tested for a sample of 15 oecd countries over the period 1974 1989 the theoretical analysis and the empirical results show how in addition to maturity ownership of government debt in those oecd countries with debt accumulation problems can be related to time consistency considerations

productivity growth technical progress and efficiency change in industrialized countries this paper analyzes productivity growth in 17 oecd countries over the period 1979 1988 a nonparametric programming method activity analysis is used to compute malmquist productivity indexes these are decomposed into two component measures namely technical change and efficiency change we find that u s productivity growth is slightly higher than average all of which is due to technical change japan s productivity growth is the highest in the sample with almost half due to efficiency change jel c43 d24 in this paper we apply recently developed

carbon dioxide emission drivers for a typical metropolis using input output structural decomposition analysis as the capital of china beijing is regarded as a major metropolis in the world study of the variation in temporal co2 emissions generated by the driving forces in beijing can provide guidance for policy decisions on co2 emissions mitigation in global metropolises based on input output structural decomposition analysis io sda we analysed the driving forces for the increment in co2 emissions in beijing from both production and final demand perspectives during 1997 2010 according to our results the co2 emission growth in beijing is driven mainly by production structure change and population growth partly offset by co2 emission intensity reduction as well as the decline in per capita final demand volume during the study period final demand structure change has a limited effect on the change in the co2 emissions in beijing from the final demand perspective urban trades urban residential consumption government consumption and fixed capital formation are mainly responsible for the booming emissions this study showed how the top down io sda methodology was implemented on a city scale policy implications from this study would be helpful for addressing co2 emissions mitigation in global capital cities and metropolises

private saving and public debt a review essay private saving and public debt edited by m j boskin and s gorini basil blackwell oxford u k 1987 and based on the proceedings of a conference held in italy in 1985 is a well documented policy oriented guide to the analysis of recent fiscal developments several strands of research are represented in the volume some contributions provide a description of empirical and institutional facts while others analyze the theoretical foundations of different aspects of the public debt problem its impact on financial markets its connection with private saving behavior its international repercussions its effects on inflation and tax policy a unifying theme in the debate is an attempt to shift the focus of the analysis away from the keynesian emphasis on short run finetuning and towards a long run growth oriented perspective the most important issues addressed in the volume are the sustainability of public debt and the effects of government deficits on private saving

foreign currency debt and the global financial architecture abstract this paper discusses some problems posed by foreign currency debt for emerging economies in the context of the ongoing debate on the reform of the global financial architecture we present a model in which the currency composition of corporate debt is endogenous and discuss the optimality of measures aimed at coping with the risks posed by foreign currency debt while removing these risks is not necessarily efficient in the presence of moral hazard some forms of public intervention such as a tax on foreign currency debt or international bailouts may be optimal

safe debt risky capital the author extends the diamond 1965 model of national debt in two directions she first introduces technological uncertainty and then she allows the stock of debt to vary the author studies the dynamical equilibria of the resulting stochastic system and she establishes conditions for the existence of stationary states that are expressed in terms of invariant distributions since conditions that ensure the existence of a stochastic stationary state with positive debt are very restrictive in this model financial instability is a pervasive phenomenon and allocations are in general dynamically inefficient copyright 1994 by the london school of economics and political science

environmental efficiency and economic growth of china a ray slack based model analysis abstract the chinese economy has been experiencing rapid growth since the implementation of the reform and opening up policy however at the same time it faces issues regarding resource savings and environmental protection which are important aspects of the new industrialization therefore this study conducts data envelopment analysis dea to evaluate the environmental efficiency of chinese regions certain existing dea models account for undesirable outputs and do not elucidate the weak disposable relationship between undesirable and desirable outputs thus polar theory is introduced among the dea modeling in this study first drawing on stochastic frontier analysis ray stochastic frontier analysis and dea we propose a ray slack based model rsbm to evaluate provincial environmental efficiencies in china from 2004 to 2012 subsequently an rsbm malmquist luenberger total factor productivity index is structured finally economic growth environmental efficiency and energy consumption are analyzed using spatial panel econometrics as this study treats industrial waste as undesirable outputs the rsbm results show that the environmental efficiencies in the east are the highest while those in the central regions are the lowest the spatial econometric analysis reveals that the ratios of direct to total elasticity and those of direct to total effect for capital labor and energy input variables are fixed furthermore the study provides policy implications and suggestions for future research