some nonlinear tax effects on asset values and investment decisions under uncertainty abstract tax system nonlinearities are often ignored but with uncertainty may have important implications for the magnitude and direction of tax effects this paper studies a particular nonlinear tax rule the policy subsidizes asset values but may discourage some investments and encourage earlier shutdown of some projects the marginal effective tax rate varies with project risk furthermore a corporate cash flow tax can encourage investment due to interactions with the nonlinear policy the paper also presents a general statement of the stochastic equilibrium valuation method which can be used to analyze other nonlinear taxes numerical examples demonstrate computational feasibility

an econometric analysis of exploration and extraction of oil in the u k continental shelf this paper develops an econometric model for the analysis of exploration and production policies of price taking suppliers and derives theoretically consistent exploration and output equations for oil which explicitly take account of the oil discovery process and the intertemporal nature of exploration and production decision the model is then applied to an empirical analysis of oil exploration and extraction on the united kingdom continental shelf ukcs over the period 1978 1 1986 4 the analysis explicitly takes account of the available engineering information concerning the pressure dynamics of the petroleum reserves and the geological knowledge pertinent to the discovery process and presents formal statistical tests of the significance of these factors for the explanation of output and exploration in the north sea copyright 1990 by royal economic society

does productive capital affect the order of resource exploitation abstract the purpose of this paper is to show that in a general equilibrium framework it is not always optimal to exploit resources in strict sequence beginning with the lowest cost deposit even if it is possible to accumulate productive capital indeed if there is an exogenous upper bound on the flow of the substitute it is always optimal to consume it simultaneously with a lower cost stock moreover it may be optimal to consume the high cost substitute before using a lower cost resource

capacity choice and the theory of the mine when extraction from mineral deposits is constrained byfixed capacity an r per cent rule holds this deposit specific rule however is more partial than hotelling s rule in that it is followed byprice takers and does not require price to adjust to produce equilibrium toobtain the resource rent to which the rule applies the shadow value ofcapacity must be subtracted from the usual net price i e price lessshort run marginal cost but the shadow value of capacity cannot becalculated from common depreciation formulas an alternative method ofcalculating the shadow values is derived the shadow value of reserves maybe increasing in the level of initial reserves if there are increasingreturns to installing capacity the value of the resource is not equal tothe discounted resource rent

investment drivers in a fishery with tradable quotas i analyze drivers of investment in a fishery with tradable quotas theory predicts that tradable quotas increase efficiency because efficient firms buy quotas from less efficient firms i identify what drives investment using data on norwegian purse seiners results show that while the basic economic investment model explains investment within firms it does not explain differences between firms these differences are explained by other firm specific factors such as geographical location whether it is a family firm and prices paid for quotas consequently investment strategies are not necessarily driven by efficiency considerations and quota trade may not increase allocative efficiency jel q22 q28

political economy of u s sugar policies this article examines political economic decision making with respect to u s sugar policies it evaluates the responsiveness of target prices and import quotas levels to changes in a the economic surpluses of market participants and b the federal budget deficit results indicate a weak linkage between sugar producer surplus and subsequent target prices levels but a strong linkage between the federal budget deficit and subsequent import quota levels the influences of sugar users corn sweetener producers and foreign countries are also examined

on perfect foresight models of a stochastic world long run analysis is often based on perfect foresight equilibrium relationships arbitrarily augmented to incorporate stochastic shocks this paper examines whether perfect foresight models admit interpretations as limits of stochastic economies and reflect long run behavior and policy effects it provides a novel interpretation of such models specifies consistency criteria for long run analysis and proposes metrics for model convergence analytical and calibration exercises are conducted to show that convergence to perfect foresight need not occur and even when it occurs it does not ensure that relationships between long run averages or low frequency components are captured by perfect foresight models copyright 1994 by royal economic society

the welfare effects of the introduction of storage this paper examines the welfare effects of introducing storage into a market with stochastic supply in which all agents are competitive profit maximizers with rational expectations these welfare effects are the net result of the initial increase in demand for stock building and the partial and asymmetric reduction in the dispersion of consumption brought about by storage the distributional impacts depend crucially on the information available to producers before storage is introduced the elasticity of supply the specification of the consumption demand curve and the cost of storage

gains and losses of sugar program policy options high domestic sugar prices supported by u s sugar policy have induced a significant substitution of corn sweeteners for sugar recognizing the close relationship between sugar and corn sweeteners this study applies a general equilibrium approach to evaluate the distributional effects of three different policy options i e quota tariff and deficiency payment on sugar related interest groups the results show that the current quota policy intended ostensibly to protect domestic sugar producers have hurt foreign exporters it will harm domestic sugar producers if the trend continues additionally the quota program is the most expensive of the options considered

on the optimal order of natural resource use when the capacity of the inexhaustible substitute is limited consider a general equilibrium framework where the marginal cost of extraction from several deposits of an exhaustible resource is constant in terms of an inexhaustible perfect substitute and differs between deposits the instantaneous rate of production form the inexhaustible resource is subject to a capacity constraint

extraction capacity and the optimal order of extraction the least cost first extraction rule for deposits with different extraction costs previously has been shown to be invalid in general equilibrium this paper demonstrates that this rule also does not hold in partial equilibrium when extraction capacity is limited necessary and sufficient conditions for several surprising extraction orders are presented if extraction from a high cost resource is constrained it may be optimal to begin extraction from a high cost deposit or backstop strictly before extracting from a lower cost deposit if extraction from a low cost resource is limited it may be optimal to exhaust a high cost deposit strictly before the low cost deposit is exhausted or to abandon extraction temporarily from a high cost deposit and then to exhaust it later the analysis demonstrates how extraction constraints affect the order of extraction and shows that certain cost reversals are caused by limited extraction capacity rather than by the general equilibrium definition of extraction costs

the effects of commodity price stabilization programs in this paper the authors analyze the effects of commodity programs in which the government attempts to support and stabilize price through open market purchases and sales specifically they as sess the effects of such programs on the u s soybean market using a rational expectations model that allows for private storage expected price responsive production and arbitrary support and release price s a salient feature of the model is that private storage and product ion behavior adjusts to changes in government policy stochastic simu lations of the market model demonstrate that price stabilization prog rams can reduce long run market price and destabilize producer revenu e copyright 1988 by american economic association

the alberta dilemma optimal sharing of a water resource by an agricultural and an oil sector we fully characterize the optimal time paths of production and water usage by an agricultural and an oil sector that share a limited water resource we show that for any given water stock if the oil stock is sufficiently large it will become optimal to have a phase during which the agricultural sector is inactive followed by a phase during which both sectors are active again the agricultural sector will always be active in the end as the oil stock is depleted if agriculture is not constrained by the given natural inflow of water then oil extraction will always end with a phase during which oil production follows a pure hotelling path otherwise oil production never follows a pure hotelling path because its full marginal cost must always reflect not only the imputed rent on the finite oil stock but also the positive opportunity cost of water usage the case of oil and agriculture sharing a water resource is but one example our analysis provides a framework to generalize the hotelling rule to other cases where the full marginal opportunity cost of extracting a nonrenewable resource depends on the endogenous activity of some other sector of the economy

competing land uses and fossil fuel and optimal energy conversion rates during the transition toward a green economy under a pollution stock constraint abstract we study the transition to a carbon free economy in a model with a polluting non renewable resource and a clean renewable resource transforming primary energy into ready to use energy services is costly and more efficient energy transformation rates are more costly to achieve renewable energy competes with food production for land and the food productivity of land can be improved at some cost to avoid catastrophic climate damages the pollution stock is mandated to stay below a given cap when the economy is not constrained by the cap the efficiency of energy transformation increases steadily until the transition toward the ultimate green economy when renewable energy is exploited its land use rises at the expense of food production food productivity increases together with the land rent but food production drops the food and energy prices increase and renewables substitute for non renewable energy during the constrained phase the economy follows a constant path of prices quantities efficiency rates food productivity and land rent a phenomenon we call the ceiling efficiency paradox

balanced budget redistribution as the outcome of political competition this paper models balanced budget redistribution between socio economic groups as the outcome of electoral competition between two political parties equilibrium is unique in the present model and a sufficient condition for existence is given requiring that there be enough stochastic heterogeneity with respect to party preferences in the electorate the validity of hotelling s principle of minimum differentiation and of director s law are examined under alternative hypotheses concerning administrative costs of redistributions and voter s possibilities both of abstaining from voting and of becoming campaign activists for one of the parties the policy strategy of expected plurality maximization is contrasted with the strategy of maximizing the probability of gaining a plurality incomes are fixed and known so lump sum taxation is feasible however constraints on tax transfer differentiation between individuals are permitted in the analysis

redistributive politics and economic efficiency the political process often compensates the losers from technical change or international competition in an economically inefficient way namely by subsidizing or protecting declining industries instead of encouraging the movement of resources to other more productive uses we find that a dynamic inconsistency in the game of redistributive politics contributes to this outcome to achieve economically efficient outcomes it is necessary that those making economically inefficient choices not be given offsetting transfers but the political process distributes income on the basis of political characteristics which are in general different from the economic characteristics that are rewarded by the market we identify circumstances in which the inefficient choosers have desirable political characteristics and are therefore immune from threats of having to face the economic consequences of their choices

corporate tax holidays and investments governments of developing countries commonly adopt tax holidays to encourage investment this article evaluates the incentives provided by company income tax holidays and explains the importance of the timing of depreciation allowances in determining the effective tax rates and the cost of capital to firms considering additional investment during the holiday if an asset is long lived and depreciation allowances for tax purposes are accelerated the tax holiday by preventing depreciation deductions during the periods of peak profits may actually penalize a company for investing during the holiday the closer the investment to the end of the holiday period the more severe the penalty if instead depreciation allowances may be deferred until after the holiday this program of incentives is quite generous to the firm how these sharply contrasting results may emerge is illustrated through estimation of effective tax rates and user costs of capital under tax holiday systems in bangladesh cote d ivoire malaysia morocco and thailand

on optimal capacity expansion for domestic processing of an exhaustible natural resource abstract the issue of optimal capacity expansion for domestic processing of exhaustible natural resource exports in a small open economy is analyzed in the context of non malleable capital a complete qualitative characterization of the optimal dynamic paths for resource extraction domestic processing and capacity expansion is obtained it is shown that the presence of capital stock adjustment costs which vary directly with the rate of capacity expansion in the resource processing sector implies a presumption in favor of a policy of domestic processing and that the optimal pattern of capacity expansion is of the front end loading variety

the inefficiency of interest rate subsidies in commodity price stabilization interest rate subsidies have been used to stimulate commodity stockholding with the intention of stabilizing prices however reductions in price variability can be achieved at less government cost using a direct storage subsidy and it is possible that an interest rate subsidy will increase price variability even though the interest subsidy increases mean stocks held these results are demonstrated using a stochastic dynamic programming model of optimal private storage with parameter values relevant to agricultural commodity markets and with particular reference to the u s soybean market

vote buying general elections we examine the consequences of vote buying assuming this practice were allowed and free of stigma two parties compete in a binary election and may purchase votes in a sequential bidding game via up front binding payments and or campaign promises platforms that are contingent on the outcome of the election we analyze the role of the parties and voters preferences in determining the winner and the payments to voters

varieties of clientelism machine politics during elections although many studies of clientelism focus exclusively on vote buying political machines often employ diverse portfolios of strategies we provide a theoretical framework and formal model to explain how and why machines mix four clientelist strategies during elections vote buying turnout buying abstention buying and double persuasion machines tailor their portfolios to the political preferences and voting costs of the electorate they also adapt their mix to at least five contextual factors compulsory voting ballot secrecy political salience machine support and political polarization our analysis yields numerous insights such as why the introduction of compulsory voting may increase vote buying and why enhanced ballot secrecy may increase turnout buying and abstention buying evidence from various countries is consistent with our predictions and suggests the need for empirical studies to pay closer attention to the ways in which machines combine clientelist strategies

intertemporal depletion of resource sites by spatially distributed users mineral deposits and other exhaustible resources are scattered around the globe as are their users yet the theory for analyzing depletion of such resources assumes that all resource sites and all users are located in the same place when applying the theory therefore one is forced to disregard what often seems to be an important real world consideration our purpose here is to generalize harold hotelling s 1931 theory of exhaustible resources to accommodate situations in which resource sites and their users are spatially distributed our analysis has many applications it can be applied to a conventional exhaustible resource like oil alternatively it can be applied to an unconventional exhaustible resource like scarce landfill space shipments of solid waste to landfills in other states or countries have become a prominent public policy issue eduardo ley et al 2000 finally our analysis can be applied in situations where the space reflects not geographical location but characteristics of the resource e g the sulfur content hardness and so forth of coal which users find distinctive 2 only two theoretical papers in resource economics have introduced spatial considerations 3 jean jacques laffont and michel moreaux 1986 studied the extraction of resources from sites located along a line segment with all users at one end charles kolstad 1994 was the first to consider spatially distributed users in his formulation consumers are distributed uniformly along a line segment with resource sites at each end kolstad s approach although innovative requires that the set of users be parti

the electoral benefits of unemployment clientelism and distributive politics abstract we show that in the month prior to the 2003 argentine presidential election the expenditures of an argentine poverty relief program exhibit a partisan bias taking into consideration the number of potential recipients the unemployed with children 18 years old or less the counties that were ideologically against the incumbent received a disproportionately large amount of the spending hence instead of targeting swing or core districts as established in the distributive politics literature in argentina the incumbent targeted opposition strongholds to identify these effects and to classify districts into swing core and opposition ones we exploit the 2001 crises in argentina in particular we use the 2001 political discontent that led to 15 of blank and null votes to estimate swing districts finally we also show that this tactical spending had an electoral purpose in counties where it was arguably cheaper to monitor the recipients voting behavior the spending was significantly larger in return the clientelist exchange took place in districts with greater spending and monitoring thus the politicians incentives to design an appropriate poverty relief program may be at odds with their electoral motivation

specialization and non renewable resources ricardo meets ricardo abstract the one demand hotelling model fails to explain the observed specialization of non renewable resources we develop a model with multiple demands and resources to show that specialization of resources according to demand is driven by ricardian comparative advantage while the order of resource use over time is determined by ricardian absolute advantage an abundant resource with absolute advantage in all demands must be initially employed in all demands when each resource has an absolute advantage in some demand no resource may be used exclusively the two by two model is characterized resource and demand specific taxes are shown to have significant substitution effects

marginal effective tax rates for capital in the canadian mining industry the authors model a firm that explores develops and extracts a depletable asset taking into account various features of canadian corporate and ontario and quebec mining tax law they derive the user cost of capital and effective tax rate for investments undertaken by a mining firm calculations based on 1985 tax law show that there is considerable dispersion in effective tax rates most being negative especially for processing assets the authors conclude that these taxes have been very poor collectors of mining rents compared to a neutral cash flow tax coauthors are neil bruce ken mckenzie and jack mintz

distributive politics with vote and turnout buying the objective of this paper is to model the incumbent s allocation of efforts that maximize his electoral chances in the presence of both vote buying persuasion and turnout buying mobilization the existing literature on distributive politics concludes that political candidates should concentrate their campaigning efforts either on safe districts or on swing districts this paper shows that when candidates can use both persuasion and mobilization strategies and the ideology of voters is unknown to the incumbent party a third option should be taken into account in fact the optimal allocation of resources rather than focusing on safe or swing districts should target opposition strongholds that is the incumbent should try to sway voters in those districts in which the challenger is favored the intuition for this result is simple since the incumbent does not know individual preferences he only observes the distribution of preferences in the districts all voters in a given district look identical to him hence when approaching voters in a district to buy their vote the incumbent always faces the risk of buying the vote of his supporters who would have voted for him anyway

challenges for economic policy in sustainable management of marine natural resources the sustainable management of marine natural resources presents particular challenges to the managers of those resources while such management has typically been based on biological considerations it is argued that this has resulted in overexploitation and destruction of important marine assets in industries such as fishing and tourism consequently it is concluded that other approaches are needed with the use of economic concepts and management tools particularly relevant at the same time the human welfare outcomes of the application of various policy instruments must be carefully considered while biological information is critical to the formulation and implementation of successful management regimes it is concluded that the application of economic instruments will become more attractive to resource managers with these instruments underpinned by consideration of property rights and an appropriate allocation of economic rents a greater focus on these economic matters will take resource managers further in the direction of sustainable management of increasingly scarce marine resources the conclusions in the paper are supported by various case studies from fisheries and tourism 2001 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

distributive politics and conditional cash transfers the case of brazil s bolsa familia summary brazilian politicians have long relied on pork and clientelism to win political support and recent literature suggests that little has changed however researchers have yet to systematically investigate whether political criteria influence the distribution of funds through bolsa familia this is especially surprising given the program s prominence in the international community in this paper i examine whether political criteria explain the federal government s distribution of bolsa familia i find little evidence that political criteria explain the difference between the number of poor families that live in a municipality and the number of families that receive support i conclude by discussing the broader significance of this large programmatic policy to brazil s political development

tax incidence in a two sector growing economy with perfect foresight abstract the purpose of this paper is to re examine the long run incidence of taxation in so doing we shall employ a two sector perfect foresight equilibrium model with either a constant and variable discount rate in the former a change in a personal income tax or any selective tax e g a commodity payroll or profit tax on the investment goods sector affects either the factor price or factor income ratio all selective taxes on the consumption goods sector are neutral in the sense that they do not affect either ratio in the latter only the commodity tax on the consumption goods is still neutral

processing industry capacity and the welfare effects of sugar policies normally analysis of policies affecting commodities such as sugar employs long run comparative statics under certainty and ignores processing industries like cane sugar refining under the implicit assumption that the capital is malleable in both the short and long run we present a dynamic model calibrated to world sugar and solved with numerical dynamic programming that includes the specific capital of the refining industry when compared to an otherwise identical static model the dynamic model suggests that some 20 of welfare losses may be misattributed to cane sugar producers instead of refiners in contrast the difference between certainty and uncertainty proves to be unimportant

depletion of the environmental basis for renewable resources the economics of interdependent renewable and nonrenewable resources abstract this paper synthesizes familiar theories of nonrenewable and renewable resource economics in a two sector partial equilibrium analysis of efficient trade offs between renewable resource production and environmental development the irreversible impacts of coastal zone development provide a motivating example while development proceeds the efficient harvest of renewable resources may exceed the sustainable rate while development may involve several periods of growth and decline once development begins it proceeds without significant interruptions if a profitable renewable sector survives development ceases before exhausting all profitable opportunities interdependent stocks reduce distinctions between resource types because each sector exhibits features of the other

on optimal domestic processing of exhaustible natural resource exports abstract this paper is concerned with the desirability of domestic processing of natural resource exports from a small open economy completely dependent upon these exports in the framework of a malleable capital model where the services of imported capital are needed to process the resource domestically the paper examines the optimal rates of extraction domestic processing and import of capital services in different economic scenarios defined in terms of processing technology cost and market structures presence or absence of taxes and subsidies historical growth in prices etc

capital income taxation depletion allowances and nonrenewable resource extraction abstract this paper analyses the distortionary effects of the corporate income tax on the output path of the resource sector and on the allocation of resources between the mining and non mining corporate sectors the cost of capital for a resource industry facing a corporate income tax is derived as well as the resulting effective tax rate on capital income the comparison of the effective tax rates of the mining and non mining sectors pays particular attention to the role played by the depletion allowance in assuring equal treatment

substitution possibilities for unpriced natural resources restricted cost functions for the canadian metal mining industry a bstract the effects of resource depletion on economic growth depend critically on the elasticities of substitution between non renewable natural resources and reproducible inputs estimation of the elasticities of substitution for natural resources has been hindered by the absence of data on their prices which results from the prevalence of vertical integration in natural resource industries in this paper we use the theory of restricted cost functions to develop a general procedure for estimating substitution possibilities for unpriced inputs estimation of the model with data for the canadian metal mining industry indicates that the elasticities of substitution for the natural resource metallic ore are equal to unity

testing the impact of taxation on capacity choice a putty clay approach abstract we investigate the impact of taxation on a sample of canadian copper mines based on a putty clay model i e focusing on plant creations and major capacity changes our theoretical analysis shows that the cost of capital differs in such an instance from its counterpart under a flexible neoclassical technology particularly in the way the resource rent component enters the formula besides the influence of geological variables our econometric results establish the effect of net of federal provincial and mining taxes expected prices on capacity choice we complement these results by identifying a significant influence of tax characteristics as distinct from the influence of gross prices per se