employer initiated job terminations recent interest in pension reform and mandatory retirement has led to a considerable body of literature on job separation the analysis has however focused primarily on the employee s reasons for and reaction to job separation much less attention has been paid to the theoretical factors influencing the employer s decision to terminate a person s employment much of the debate centers on questions concerning the productivity of older workers representatives of the elderly not only argue that members of their constituency want to continue to work but that they are highly productive the implication is that if employers terminate older workers it must reflect employer discrimination against equally productive but older workers becker 1 however argues that the case for discrimination is weak competitive markets would lead to nondiscriminating firms driving out the discriminatory firms furthermore since employers will someday become old they are less likely to discriminate on the basis of age than other factors such as race or sex the implication is that if older workers are being terminated this must reflect that their productivities have dropped below their wages this paper explores the relationship between productivities and compensation paid by a nondiscriminatory employer who terminates older workers the analysis yields answers to the following questions at what point will a firm decide to terminate the employment of a person embodying the employer s investment in specific training if productivities vary with age how does the productivity of an older terminated worker compare with that of a younger worker have older workers passed their peak productivity years

beyond gdp the quest for a measure of social welfare this paper critically examines the various approaches to the measurement of individual well being and social welfare that have been considered for the construction of alternatives to gdp special attention is devoted to recent developments in the analysis of sustainability in the study of happiness in the theory of social choice and fair allocation and in the capability approach it is suggested in the conclusion that although convergence toward a consensual approach is not impossible for the moment not one but three alternatives to gdp are worth developing jel i31 e23 e01

forecasting the exchange rate a monetary or random walk phenomenon abstract this paper evaluates the forecasting accuracy of monetary and random walk models of the exchange rate instrumental variable estimates of the simple monetary model are not supported by the data while the full information maximum liklihood estimates of its rational expectations counterpart are the rational expectations monetary model is operationalized using the results of hansen and sargent 1980 and flavin 1981 and box jenkins time series techniques monthly data on the us and uk economics over the recent flexible exchange rate period serve as the case study

activist monetary policy imperfect capital mobility and the overshooting hypothesis abstract the hypothesis of exchange rate overshooting is investigated in the context of a model that incorporates activist monetary policy variable output imperfect capital mobility and slow price adjustment monetary policy which accommodates prices and or interest rates is shown to increase the probability of undershooting using constrained maximum likelihood methods the model is estimated for germany and japan since the advent of generalized floating in 1973 based on the estimated parameter values the mark exhibits overshooting while the yen is characterized by undershooting the constraints implied by the model cannot be rejected at standard significance levels for either country

the monetary approach to exchange rate determination under rational expectations the dollar deutschmark rate abstract this paper reformulates the monetary approach after ascertaining that a money demand function with a partial adjustment mechanism had more empirical support than a money demand function which assumed instantaneous stock adjustment the resulting exchange rate equation is estimated by two rational expectations techniques the parameter estimates are reasonable and are robust to the estimation technique used to different specifications of the driving processes and to changes in the estimation period the structural model outperforms the random walk model and its own unconstrained equivalent a pure time series equation in outof sample forecasts

invariance in growth theory and sustainable development abstract this paper analyzes the general concept of sustainability from a different point of view than that generally found in the literature if sustainability is defined as the requirement to keep something constant or at least non decreasing throughout time the choice of the thing to be preserved is controversial neo classical models mainly assume that sustainability requires that consumption or a utility level has to be preserved in this paper we object to this a priori conception of sustainability and define all the quantities that can be preserved in neo classical optimal growth models we thus wonder if invariant quantities can be found along the optimal paths defined by a classical representation of an economy with an exhaustible resource we use the noether theorem to determine the conservation laws of dynamic systems we examine under which conditions there is such invariance and how it could be interpreted as a sustainability indicator we emphasize the limits of the economic growth theory for coping with the sustainability issue

guidelines for exploiting natural resource wealth the principles of how best to manage the various components of national wealth are outlined where the permanent income hypothesis the hotelling rule and the hartwick rule play a prominent role as far as managing natural resource wealth is concerned a case is made to use an intergenerational sovereign wealth fund to smooth consumption across generations a liquidity fund for the precautionary buffers to deal with commodity price volatility and an investment fund to park part of the windfall until the country is ready to absorb extra spending on domestic investment capital scarcity implies that a positive part of the windfall should be spent on domestic investment the conclusions highlight the political economy problems that will have to be tackled with these normative proposals for managing wealth the author 2014 published by oxford university press

testing genuine savings as a forward looking indicator of future well being over the very long run genuine savings gs have been much used in recent years as an indicator of a country s sustainability according to some theorists e g arrow et al 2012 under certain conditions a country with a positive level of gs should experience non declining future utility given the assumption of unlimited substitutability among all forms of capital sometimes called weak sustainability this paper reports the first very long run tests of gs also called comprehensive investment or adjusted net savings as a forward looking indicator of future well being we assemble data for british capital back to 1765 and construct several net investment measures which are used as indicators of two alternative measures of future well being consumption per capita and real wages an allowance for a value of time due to exogenous technological progress is included in some gs measures and we demonstrate the importance of this measure and the choice of discount rate over the very long run on the whole our results do not reject the postulated relationship between gs and future well being and show gs can be a forward looking indicator of future well being for periods of up to 100 years

the concept of natural capital the natural environment is now commonly viewed as a form of capital asset or natural capital also included are ecosystems that provide important goods and services to the economy managing natural capital has consequences for sustainable development however there are contrasting weak versus strong sustainability views which in turn have implications for green accounting natural resource based sovereign wealth funds have emerged as key financial instruments for compensating resource depreciation with greater economy wide investments recent scientific evidence recommends demarcating safe operating spaces to limit exploitation of critical global biophysical subsystems or processes these challenges suggest that the concept of natural capital is pivotal to sound policy

recent advances in the valuation of ecosystem services and biodiversity recent interest in the economics of biodiversity and wider ecosystem services has been given empirical expression through a focus upon economic valuation this emphasis has been prompted by a growing recognition that the benefits and opportunity costs associated with such services are frequently given cursory consideration in policy analyses or even completely ignored the valuation of biodiversity and ecosystem services is therefore increasingly seen as a crucial element of robust decision making and this has been reflected in a growing body of related research we provide a critical review of some of this research considering the valuation methods applied to date and focussing upon their limitations in respect to certain categories of ecosystem services particularly cultural services and the applicability of the extant literature to new settings substantial questions also remain at the interface of natural science and economics and we consider the potential contribution of the conceptualization of ecosystems as assets as a response to this challenge as part of this review we also highlight the role which large scale ecosystem assessments have played as an impetus to extending the valuation evidence base and the way in which frameworks and assessments of how ecosystems contribute to human wellbeing might be translated into policy thinking and decision analyses

paradoxical consumption behavior when economic activity has environmental effects in a model where enhanced economic activity accumulation of produced capital leads to environmental eects depletion of natural capital competitive steady states corresponding to dierent discount rates are compared for positive discount rates the steady state stock of produced capital may exceed the size maximizing sustainable consumption this implies paradoxical consumption behavior that is a lower discount rate may be associated with lower steady state consumption the theoretical significance of this phenomenon for intergenerational equity is discussed and examples indicating the empirical relevance of the underlying assumptions are presented

redundancy in an expanding labour market a case study of displaced workers from two manufacturing plants in southampton previous studies of redundancy have been derived from a restricted geographical base they have been predominantly concerned with workers made redundant by manufacturing firms in older industrial regions and have largely ignored redundancies in more buoyant labour market areas this paper examines the post redundancy experience of workers made redundant by two large manufacturing firms in southampton in the mid 1980s comparison with previous studies of redundancy in less prosperous labour markets in northern regions of the uk highlights contrasts in the proportions of workers finding alternative employment and in rates of pay working conditions and levels of job satisfaction the study also highlights the importance of gender in post redundancy experience another factor that has been neglected in previous studies

a step beside the maximin path can we sustain the economy by following hartwick s investment rule si la durabilite est interpretee comme la necessite de soutenir le niveau de consommation ou d utilite alors l utilisation d un critere maximin est pertinente l economie soutenable est caracterisee par un niveau d investissement optimal qui satisfait la regle d investissement d hartwick cet article examine comment la durabilite d une economie basee sur une ressource non renouvelable est modifiee au voisinage du sentier maximin c est a dire lorsque la consommation ou les prix sont sous optimaux un indicateur de consommation soutenable est propose pour caracteriser la durabilite des sentiers de consommation constante definis comme des deviations au sentier maximin on decrit en particulier comment une sur consommation presente diminue la soutenabilite de l economie pour les generations futures

sterilization costs and exchange rate targeting abstract we examine the movements of exchange rates and capital inflows in an environment where an optimizing central bank pursuing the joint goals of inflation and output targeting engages in costly sterilization activities our results predict that when faced with increased sterilization costs the central bank will choose to limit its sterilization activities allowing target variables such as the nominal exchange rate to adjust we then test the predictions of a linearized version of the saddle path solution to the model for a cross country panel of developing countries we use ols iv and gmm specifications to allow for the endogeneity of capital inflows our results confirm that monetary policy does respond to sterilization costs

interpreting sustainability in economic terms dynamic efficiency plus intergenerational equity abstract economists have confined the concept of sustainability to intertemporal distributional equity we propose a broader definition combining dynamic efficiency and intergenerational equity and relate it to two concepts from neoclassical economics potential pareto improvements and inter personal compensation

employment outcomes and plant closure in a post industrial city an analysis of the labour market studies of mg rover workers three years on this paper examines how the loss of 6300 jobs from the closure of mg rover mgr in the city of birmingham uk in april 2005 affected the employment trajectories of ex workers in the context of wider structural change and efforts at urban renewal the paper presents an analysis of a longitudinal survey of 300 ex mgr workers and examines to what extent the state of local labour markets and workers geographical mobility as well as the effectiveness of the immediate policy response and longer term local economic strategies may have helped to balance the impacts of personal attributes associated with workers employability and their reabsorption into the labour markets it is found that the relative buoyancy of the local economy the success of longer run efforts at diversification and a strong policy response and retraining initiative helped many disadvantaged workers to find new jobs in the medium term however the paper also highlights the unequal employment outcomes and trajectories that many lesser skilled workers faced it explores the policy issues arising from such closures and their aftermath such as the need to co ordinate responses to retain institutional capacity to offer high quality training and education resources to workers and where possible to slow down such closure processes to enable skills to be retained and reused within the local economy

domestic and foreign disturbances in an optimizing model of exchange rate determination abstract this paper analyzes the effects of various disturbances of domestic and foreign origin in a small open economy under imperfect capital mobility in which the behavioral relationships are divided from optimization by the private sector in this model the domestic economy jumps instantaneously to its new equilibrium following a change in either the domestic monetary growth rate or domestic fiscal policy in response to a disturbance in either the foreign interest rate or inflation rate the economy undergoes an initial partial jump towards its new equilibrium which it thereafter approaches gradually the implications of these results for exchange rate adjustments and the insulation properties of flexible exchange rates are discussed

tests of the performance of reduced form exchange rate models this study analyzes the performance of reduced form exchange rate models through a number of tests of specification stability and prediction it confirms earlier tests showing that monetary models do not perform well but it finds more positive results for other models some portfoliobalance models are sufficiently stable to do better than a random walk in post sample tests the study concludes that monetary models are unduly restrictive in the way they incorporate purchasing power parity and perfect asset substitutability

social accounting and welfare measurement in a growth model with human capital this paper addresses social accounting and welfare measurement in an economy where human capital is an important factor in the economic system human capital accumulation depends on the time consumers spend in education however human capital is also a separate argument in the production function facing firms which gives rise to a production externality in a command optimum where the externality is internalized we show that an augmented nnp measure is the appropriate welfare indicator we also discuss the taxtransfer system required for the decentralized economy to reach a command optimum

the contribution of l c gray to the economic theory of exhaustible natural resources and its roots in the history of economic thought abstract the paper opens with an assessment of natural resources economics up to 1913 14 when gray published his two pioneering articles in natural resources economics part i an in depth study of gray weighing his contribution to the microeconomic theory of the mine and the macroeconomic theory of conservation against current literature constitutes the main body of the paper part ii gray and hotelling s contributions to the theory of the mine are compared part iii the paper concludes with a comparison drawn between the author s findings and the scant attention previously paid to gray s contributions to natural resources economics so far as i know this is the first attempt to apply economic theory to this particular problem of conservation h c taylor unpublished letter to c r van hise may 23 1913 a reference to gray s economic possibilities of conservation

policy review section in this policy review section gerry stoker of the institute of local government studies presents a critical review of the role of urban development corporations udcs in comparing the experience of the udcs consideration is given to the varying nature of the land and property market in each udc area to the relationship with local authorities and other local bodies and the regeneration strategies pursued by the udcs this is followed by an assessment of the impact of the udcs in economic social and political terms in the second article john britton of the university of toronto examines the theoretical case for interventionist public policies to assist the innovation process in small and medium sized enterprises these arguments are supported by a review of the experience of various national support programmes introduced in the uk in particular the manufacturing advisory service introduced in 1978 and the design advisory service launched in 1982

wealth and sustainability for economists in 1974 it was a live question whether the exhaustion of natural resources such as oil would necessarily lead to the decline of economic activity solow showed that constant levels of consumption could be sustained in the face of exhaustibility if there is sufficient substitutability between produced and natural factors of production hartwick then proved that underpinning this result is a saving rule set investment in produced capital equal to the value of resource depletion at each point in time a large literature has shown that a comprehensive measure of the change in real wealth net saving plays a central role in determining whether current well being can be sustained in particular current declines in real wealth signal that future well being will also decline a result that has been confirmed empirically using data for developing countries changes in wealth and sustainability are therefore joined at the hip the current composition of wealth serves to define the policy challenges that countries face in achieving sustainable development if substitution possibilities are limited between natural and other factors of production as one might expect then technical progress is a necessary complement to policies for sustainability

a mixed bentham rawls criterion for intergenerational equity theory and implications abstract this paper proposes a welfare criterion that balances the need for development and the concern for the least advantaged generations and explores its implications this criterion called the mixed bentham rawls criterion moderates the effect of discounting yet permits some degree of intertemporal trade off it is a weighted average of two terms a the sum of discounted utilities and b the utility level of the least advantaged generation we derive necessary conditions to characterize growth paths that satisfy our criterion and show that in some models with familiar dynamic specifications an optimal path exists and displays appealing characteristics

on the intergenerational allocation of natural resources it is known hartwick and others that under standard assumptions a society that invests in reproducible capital the competitive rents on its current extraction of exhaustible resources will enjoy a consumption stream constant in time it is shown here that this result can be interpreted as saying that an appropriately defined stock of capital including the initial endowment of resources is being maintained intact and that consumption can be interpreted as the interest on that patrimony this seems like a useful rule of thumb for policy

efficient exchange rate forecasts lagged models better than the random walk abstract the evidence of meese amd rogoff 1983 on the out of sample forecasting performance of structural exchange rate models in comparison to the random walk model portrays a disappointing picture of structural models this paper re considers the issue for the german mark for an updated period to include a larger set of structural models and lagged adjustment besides out of sample evidence in sample evidence is also examined we conclude that while some stuctural models dominate the random walk a lagged adjustment consideration can contribute towards better performance

savings growth and the path of utility we derive an expression relating the change in instantaneous utility to the growth of net genuine saving in an economy with multiple stocks and externalities that maxi mizes welfare in the utilitarian sense this result is then shown to hold for decentralized competitive efficient economies as well to yield an extension of the hartwick rule instan taneous utility is non declining along a development path if genuine saving is decreasing by way of example the rule is applied as a constant genuine saving rate rule in a simple dasgupta heal solow stiglitzeconomy the rule yields a path with unbounded consump tion and higher wealth than on the standard hartwick constant consumption path jel classification q01 q56 o13

measuring the immeasurable a survey of sustainability indices sustainability indices for countries provide a one dimensional metric to valuate country specific information on the three dimensions of sustainable development economic environmental and social conditions at the policy level they suggest an unambiguous yardstick against which a country s development can be measured and even a cross country comparison can be performed this paper reviews the explanatory power of various sustainability indices applied in policy practice we show that these indices fail to fulfill fundamental scientific requirements making them rather useless if not misleading with respect to policy advice

equitable cost benefit analysis of climate change greenhouse gas emissions and vulnerability to climate change show a strong negative correlation this is the moral issue at the heart of the climate problem however little attention has been paid to this in the literature see banuri et al 1996 for an overview the literature on equity issues in climate change is largely confined to the distribution of emissions reduction targets this literature takes the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions for granted and takes a parametric approach to the required reductions on the other hand the literature that tries to derive how much emissions abatement is desirable largely ducks the equity issue this paper is an attempt to combine the two problems

sustainability economics general versus specific and conceptual versus practical we clarify the definition and interpretation of sustainability economics baumgartner and quaas 2010 in response to recent comments by van den bergh 2010 bartelmus 2010 and others for that sake we distinguish between general and specific definitions of sustainability and sustainability economics as well as between conceptual and practical approaches

equitable cost benefit analysis of climate change policies the literature of welfare maximising greenhouse gas emission reduction strategies pays remarkably little attention to equity this paper introduces three ways to consider efficiency and equity simultaneously the first method inspired by kant and rawls maximises net present welfare without international cooperation as if all regions share the fate of the region affected worst by climate change optimal emission abatement varies greatly depending on the spatial and temporal resolution that is the grid at which maximum impact is defined the second method is inspired by varian s no envy emissions are reduced so as to equalise total costs and benefits of climate change over all countries of the world and over all time periods emission reductions are substantial this method approximately preserves the inequities that would occur in a world without climate change the third method uses non linear aggregations of welfare the utilitarian default is linear in a cooperative setting this method cannot distinguish between sources of inequity the higher the aversion to inequity the higher optimal greenhouse gas emission reduction

do stronger age discrimination laws make social security reforms more effective supply side social security reforms to increase employment and delay benefit claiming among older individuals may be frustrated by age discrimination we test for policy complementarities between supply side social security reforms and demand side efforts to deter age discrimination specifically studying whether stronger state level age discrimination protections enhanced the impact of the increases in the social security full retirement age fra that occurred in the past decade the evidence indicates that for older individuals who were caught by the increase in the fra benefit claiming reductions and employment increases were sharper in states with stronger age discrimination protections

nature in economics nature has been ill served by 20th century economics when asked economists acknowledge nature s existence but most would appear to deny that she is worth much if ecologists worry about the contemporary nexus between population size and growth the standard of living and the natural environment we economists point to the accumulation of capital and technological progress and say malthus got it wrong in this paper i show by an appeal to theory that economics has been so badly misused that it has deflected attention from deep problems at the nexus that are faced both regionally and globally

disaggregated economic impact analysis incorporating ecological and social trade offs and techno institutional context a case from the western ghats of india economic valuation of ecosystem benefits and their aggregation in a benefit cost analysis bca framework is the norm in mainstream environmental economics but valuation and bca have also attracted criticisms internal criticisms point to the absence of alternative scenarios in valuation overlooking of ecological trade offs and dis services and inattention to context others criticize aggregation across diverse stakeholders and the problem of non monetizable benefits and dismiss bca as fatally flawed they suggest approaches such as deliberative decision making and multi criteria analysis we propose a middle path that uses the strengths of economic analysis for decision support while avoiding the pitfalls we disaggregate economic impacts by stakeholder groups link ecosystem changes to benefits as well as dis benefits and examine how socio technological context shapes the magnitude of economic impact we illustrate this approach by studying the impact of creating the biligiri rangaswamy temple wildlife sanctuary in the western ghats forests of southern india our analysis shows that while some stakeholders are net beneficiaries others are net losers changes in forest rights irrigation technologies and ecosystem dynamics influence the magnitude of benefits and sometimes convert gainers into losers such disaggregated analysis can provide useful information for deliberative decision making and important academic insights on how economic value is generated

characterizing sustainability the converse of hartwick s rule this note offers a general proof of the converse of hartwick s rule namely that in an economy with stationary instantaneous preferences and a stationary technology an efficient constant utility path is characterized by the value of net investments being zero at each point in time in a one consumption economy with two stocks a stock of a natural resource and a stock of man made capital this means that if consumption remains constant at the maximum sustainable level then the accumulation of man made capital always exactly compensates in value for the depletion of the natural resource

one sided sustainability tests with amenities and changes in technology trade and population abstract if an economy with multiple consumption goods including environmental amenities uniquely maximises present value with constant discounting it is unsustainable at some time if either of two measures augmented net investment or the change in augmented green net national product are zero or negative then augmented denotes that time is treated as a productive stock which includes in each measure the value of future exogenous changes in technology or terms of trade adjustments are found to make each measure a test for individual sustainability when population grows exogenously the practical and philosophical rationale for testing sustainability in a present value maximising and therefore fully prescribed development path is discussed

toward a new welfare economics for sustainability the debate over various definitions of sustainability has for the most part been conducted within the framework of traditional welfare economics discussion has centered on technical issues imbedded within the functional forms of various optimization models especially the coefficient of the elasticity of substitution and the social discount rate two more basic problems are 1 intractable theoretical difficulties within welfare economics call into question the results of traditional models of sustainability regarding intergenerational welfare and 2 equating per capita consumption with welfare contradicts empirical evidence suggesting that the link between happiness and wealth income is relatively weak alternative approaches to measuring well being are being developed and these have great potential to move the sustainability debate forward

use and misuse of the net present value in environmental studies abstract environmental studies regularly use the net present value npv to value benefits and costs of projects however the npv disregards whether the stream of net benefits is steady or volatile and ignores the distribution of net benefits among different groups of people here we test alternatives to npv building on two example cases 1 we use discounted utility du to evaluate land use projects and calculate opportunity costs for avoided deforestation 2 we simulate decision making on tropical deforestation whereby we use multiple decision criteria to consider the distribution of net benefits between two groups farmers and conservationists results show considerable differences in the ranking of projects between du and npv when projects are not marginal compared to du npv regularly overestimates the value of forest plantations moreover npv tends to overstate the opportunity costs of avoiding deforestation in terms of saved carbon emissions not accounting for the distribution of net benefits when optimizing land use allocation leads to sub optimal simulated deforestation scenarios we therefore suggest that future studies should either also use du to value economic consequences of projects or that they use the npv as only one among several socio economic and ecological decision criteria

genuine savings and sustainability genuine savings gs has emerged as the leading economic indicator of sustainable economic development at the country level it derives from the literatures on weak sustainability wealth accounting and national income accounting we discuss the theoretical underpinnings of gs focusing on the relationship between changes in a nation s extended capital stock and the future path of consumption the indicator has entered widespread use propelled by the world bank s publications despite its varying performance as a predictor for future consumption notwithstanding the extensive body of literature reviewed promising future research avenues are identified

job loss and the regional incidence of redundancies in the current recession industrial change is a two sided process it both creates new plants production methods and jobs and displaces others at present in operation but the two sides of this process rarely coincide in time or space and in britain over the past fifteen years or so the develop ment path of the economy has been increasingly dominated by displacement effects whether measured in terms of output exports investment or employment there has been a cumulative weakening of the contribution of manufacturing to the national economy an unprecedented de industrialisation although opinions differ over the precise causes of this persistent industrial decline it is clear that the british economy has become caught in a process of declining external competitiveness which is both a consequence and a cause of a deteriorating economic environment characterised by low profits the holding back of new investment and insufficient job opportunities blackaby 1978 hughes 1981 cambridge economic policy group 1982 it is the absolute decline in industrial employ ment sustained now for some sixteen years and accelerated by the current recession that is one of the worrying features of this deindustrialisation from a peak level in 1966 total industrial employment has declined by over four million of which three million is accounted for by jobs lost in manufacturing during the 1970s there were some increases in service employment especially in the public sector which offset the decline in manufac turing jobs but that offsetting trend came to a halt towards the end of the decade over the period 1966 81 service employment increased by just over one million so that the loss of four million jobs in industry has been primarily reflected not by jobs created else where in the economy but by an increase in the army of unemployed of nearly three million industrial unemployment is now more than ten times what it was in 1966 this decline in the demand for labour has been characterised by a number of cyclical phases over the last decade or so cycles in the rate of capital accumulation appear to have become more marked and to have been accompanied by pronounced swings in the financial balance of a large number of firms and industries much of the labour displacement that has occurred during these crises has been concentrated in a single year within the four or five year cycle as in 1967 1971 1975 and in the current recession in 1980 with out doubt this latest downturn is the most severe of the post war period an economic col lapse that has been sharply intensified by the tory government s pursuance of restrictive monetarist policies to combat inflation and a laissez faire approach to the supply side of

net national product as an indicator of sustainability net national product nnp can potentially serve several objectives among others to measure value added and to be an indicator of welfare in the aftermath of the world commission on environment and development however it also seems important to investigate whether the concept of nnp can serve as an indicator of sustainability my point of departure following hicks 1946 ch 14 is therefore to require that nnp should measure what can be consumed in the present period without reducing future consumption possibilities and in line with this to argue that the nnp should equal the maximum per capita consumption level that can be sustained if sufficiently many facilitating assumptions are made then a concept of nnp that serves as an exact indicator of sustainability can easily be constructed for instance for a closed economy with a constant population a stationary technology and with only one capital good it follows that the present does not reduce future consumption possibilities if and only if it does not decrease the stock of the single capital good hence under the assumption that the one capital good k is identical to the one consumption good x nnp defined as y x k measures the maximal sustainable consumption at time t because then x y is equivalent to k the purpose of this note is to establish that with multiple capital goods it is not in general possible to construct an exact indicator of sustainability on the

sustainable development the hartwick rule and optimal growth defining sustainable development as non declining utility the consistency of this concept with the hartwick rule and optimal growth is explored when resources are exhaustible a simple proof that a generalized hartwick rule is necessary and sufficient for constant consumption is derived the existence of a maximal constant consumption path is shown to depend critically on the elasticity of substitution if this is less than 1 consumption declines if it is greater than 1 then consumption is not maximal if it is equal to 1 the cobb douglas case then existence is proved consumption can increase along an optimal path if the pure rate of time preference is 0 if it is non zero then consumption declines

national accounts and environmental resources in the paper optimal growth theory is used to derive the appropriate definition of the net national product concept when there are environmental resources and environmental damage to take into account the basic conclusions are that conventional defined np should be corrected by deducting environmental damage and adding the value of the net change of all resources

capital theory and the measurement of sustainable development an indicator of weak sustainability the measurement of sustainable development is not without considerable difficulties yet this should not detract from the positive advances that can be made in this direction in this paper we present one form that a weak sustainability indicator can take derived from a simple but intuitive savings rule it incorporates the idea that the level of overall capital stock should be non decreasing although subject to qualification at this stage some interesting results emerge from the application of the rule to 18 countries

capital accumulation and resource depletion a hartwick rule counterfactual how rich would resource abundant countries be if they had actually followed the hartwick rule invest resource rents in other assets over the past 30 years the authors use time series data on investments and rents on exhaustible resource extraction for 70 countries to answer this question the results are striking gabon trinidad and tobago and venezuela would all be as wealthy as the republic of korea while nigeria would be five times as well off as it is currently the authors also derive a more general rule for sustainability maintain positive constant genuine investment and use this to draw further empirical results

the welfare economic theory of green national accounts this paper takes a critical look at the literature on green national accounts the problem studied is to find a linear index of economic variables that responds to perturbations in the same direction as social well being the thesis of a large literature that net national product which is a flow is that index in closed economies is shown in some interpretations to be simply false and in others to suffer from deep estimation problems it is argued that capital depreciation using shadow prices should certainly be included in national accounts but that the right welfare index is a comprehensive measure of wealth defined as the shadow value of an economy s stock of all capital assets it is shown that comprehensive wealth is usable as a criterion for policy evaluation as well as for determining sustainable economic development

constant savings rates and quasi arithmetic population growth under exhaustible resource constraints in the dasgupta heal solow stiglitz dhss model of capital accumulation and resource depletion we show the following equivalence if an efficient path has constant gross and net of population growth savings rates then population growth must be quasi arithmetic and the path is a maximin or a classical utilitarian optimum conversely if a path is optimal according to maximin or classical utilitarianism with constant elasticity of marginal utility under quasi arithmetic population growth then the gross and net of population growth savings rates converge asymptotically to constants

adjusting green nnp to measure sustainability weitzman provides a foundation for nnp as the stationary equivalent of a wealth maximizing path when there is a constant interest rate and no exogenous technological progress here the implications of weitzman s foundation are explored in a case encountered in resource models i e the case of non constant interest rates in a setting that allows for exogenous technological progress an expression for nnp is obtained that adjusts green nnp for anticipated capital gains and interest rate effects to produce a measure that indicates sustainability this result is important when measuring the relative sustainability of resource rich and resource poor countries i introduction how should net national product nnp be adjusted for the depletion of natural and environmental resources a prerequisite for examining this problem is to decide on an underlying notion of income at the personal level hicks 1946 defines income as the consumption that if kept constant would yield the same present value as a person s actual future receipts since market prices are not influenced by any single person this notion of income equals a person s maximal sustainable consumption at the national level national income can likewise be defined as the consumption that if kept constant would yield the same present value as the actual future consumption path unless the nation is a small open economy faced with given international prices this notion of national income will exceed

taking natural capital seriously the paper sets out a pragmatic case for preserving the aggregate level of natural capital in the face of the declines in biodiversity and the rising population and major increases in consumption that economic growth will bring in this century the accounting framework to achieving this objective is considered focused on the role of asset registers particular attention is paid to renewable assets at risk of falling below critical thresholds these assets are key components of the balance sheet capital maintenance expenditures are required to maintain the value of assets intact since renewable natural assets should not be depreciated but rather treated as assets in perpetuity within the aggregate substitutions with other forms of capital are permitted but only if there is compensation for any detriment to natural capital offsetting is one mechanism for achieving this compensation the case for enhancing the aggregate is considered and the paper shows how a broader national plan over a generation could contribute to the policy objective of leaving the next generation with a richer endowment of natural capital the policy instruments for embedding natural capital into public policy are reviewed

contrasting experience of recession and spatial restructuring british shipbuilders plessey and metal box peck f w and townsend a r 1984 contrasting experience of recession and spatial re structuring british shipbuilders plessey and metal box reg studies 18 319 338 trends in aggregate economic indicators in the recent recession conceal marked variations in the experience of different industrial corporations within the meso economic sector in the uk this paper demonstrates such variations by comparing the nature of employment decline in three major uk corporations british shipbuilders plessey and metal box despite similar employment profiles since 1977 these three corporations have experienced very different trends in output productivity and profitability suggesting that their respective job losses have occurred for different reasons the origins of these job losses are examined in detail concentrating in particular on the regional incidence of major redundancies and closures the conclusion summarizes the factors which influence job loss and suggests extending the analysis to wider groups of

measuring the financial sustainability and its influential factors in local governments abstractthe economic crisis has led international organizations and previous research to point out the need for measuring and controlling financial sustainability in governments based on the main international pronouncements this article seeks to contribute to the measurement and management of the financial sustainability analysing the income statement evolution and identifying its influential factors an empirical study of spanish municipalities is then undertaken to test the relationship between the measure of the financial sustainability and three dimensions proposed by international federation of accountants ifac revenues debt and services our findings indicate that the income statement is a good approach for the financial sustainability assessment because it reveals relevant information about its three dimensions allowing to identify the specific factors which could provoke sustainability problems on public services

intertemporal equity and hartwick s rule in an exhaustible resource model in a standard exhaustible resource model it is known that if along a competitive path investment in the augmentable capital good equals the rents on the exhaustible resource known as hartwick s rule then the path is equitable in the sense that the consumption level is constant over time in this paper we show the converse of this result if a competitive path is equitable then it must satisfy hartwick s rule

continuity and evolution in an old industrial region the labour market dynamics of the rise and fall of northern rock dawley s marshall n pike a pollard j and tomaney j continuity and evolution in an old industrial region the labour market dynamics of the rise and fall of northern rock regional studies the northern rock mortgage bank was a high profile casualty of the credit crunch in 2007 an evolutionary geographical political economy approach demonstrates that northern rock s growth and decline was shaped by its location in an old industrial region and echoes the historical position of the peripheral region in the spatial division of labour a longitudinal investigation focuses on the labour market dynamics of northern rock s rapid growth and decline on the north east of england the northern rock case highlights the enduring occupational structure of the region s labour market and shows how older industrial regions suffer from a process of occupational disadvantage that restricts their ability to adapt to economic change

the changing urban and regional system in the united kingdom cooke p 1986 the changing urban and regional system in the united kingdom reg studies 30 243 251 the uk space economy has been subject to important structural shifts of late the north has a disproportionately large amount of old capital stock and associated industry and labour shedding in response to international competition has been massive the south is increasingly the location for newer more buoyant economic activity but there are localities within each area which do not conform to the stereotype research on localities enables the finer grained impact of economic restructuring to be more clearly understood preliminary findings from a representative set of seven uk localities suggest that significant change is taking place in the structure of local labour markets the organization of work local social structure politics and policies being pursued locally many of the processes characterizing spatial development in the 1960s and 1970s such as decentralization in manufacturing services

migration and employment after an economic shock regional characteristics and migration patterns this study addresses the migration dynamics of workers after their workplace has closed it analyses to what extent migration responses differ between regions with different characteristics for ind

redundancies labour turnover and employment contraction in the recession a regional analysis martin r l 1984 redundancies labour turnover and employment contraction in the recession a regional analysis reg studies 18 445 458 the rapid decline of the british economy during the current recession has generated considerable interest in the geography of employment contraction and the regional incidence of redundancy in this paper it is argued that regional variations in the impact of redundancy need to be viewed in relation to the other labour turnover flows that contribute to net employment loss estimates of gross labour turnover flows suggest that there have been wide differences amongst the regions in the proportion of total discharges accounted for by redundancies furthermore there is evidence that regional specific rates of redundancy are related to 1 the pace of decline in a region 2 the average rate of national job turnover in the region and 3 the extent to which such natural turnover declines as employment opportunities diminish and unemployment rises the implication is

the rise fall and sustainability of capital resource economies in debates about green accounting it is sometimes argued that a positive value of aggregate investments indicates that an economy is developing sustainably asheim 1994 and pezzey 1994 have shown that this is wrong using a version of the well known dasgupta heal economy with one capital and one non renewable resource stock as a counterexample asheim s proof referred to the unproved assumptions that in such an economy a higher rate of time preference induces higher initial consumption and vice versa and that optimal consumption is initially rising and then falling here we show that these assumptions do hold true under certain circumstances thereby also proving some of dasgupta and heal s other conjectures about sustainability

environmental equity and sustainability rejecting the kaldor hicks criteria abstract an implementable translation of environmental equity and sustainability is provided for use in benefit cost analysis as such the approach builds on the underlying economic structure of benefit cost analysis while trying to cause it to evolve in ways that take into account issues of greater concern to ecological economists environmental equity and sustainability are interpreted as imposing new decision criteria that require additional benefit cost tests based on actual compensation to identified sub groups of the population this rejects the pre world war ii compromise of economists regarding potential compensation embodied in the kaldor hicks criteria for environmental equity a project is proposed to pass a benefit cost test if the identified group either receives net benefits or is more than compensated for its losses for sustainability a project is proposed to pass a benefit cost test if the compensation is larger than the net value of the resource and the net value of the resource is reinvested

the cyclical sensitivity of regional employment and unemployment differentials gordon i r 1985 the cyclical sensitivity of regional employment and unemployment differentials reg studies 19 95 110 this paper examines inter regional variations in the cyclical sensitivity of employment and unemployment in the uk over the past thirty years it shows that the patterns for employment and for unemployment are quite different the cyclical sensitivity of unemployment is greatest in the high unemployment regions while that for employment is greatest in the more industrial regions it is argued that the primary reason for differences in the sensitivity of unemployment is not demand side factors but cyclical variations in labour mobility between regions lower mobility in periods of high unemployment reduces the effectiveness of inter regional supply adjustments and increases the variance of unemployment rates

natural resources national accounting and economic depreciation abstract the current value hamiltonian in an aggregate optimal growth problem with heterogeneous capital stocks including exhaustible renewable and environmental stocks is the nnp function routine substitutions reveal that the using up of natural resource stocks is representable as easy to interpret economic depreciation magnitudes we obtain true nnp inclusive of natural resource stock diminution implications for actual national accounting practices are also discussed

job loss and the regions how important is redundancy meager n 1984 job loss and the regions how important is redundancy reg studies 18 459 467 the paper argues that the common emphasis when comparing job losses between regions or industries etc on net employment decline and on redundancy as the major component of it may be misplaced and may conceal important differences between the regions or industries compared the argument is illustrated with data from a local labour market motherwell and with official data on the british regions it is shown in particular that when considered as a component of gross employment change redundancy may not dominate job loss future work should therefore concentrate to a greater extent on gross changes and on non redundancy methods of job loss

resource depletion and sustainability in small open economies abstract exogenous price changes affect the amount that a small country exporting natural resource commodities must invest to sustain its consumption level the necessary amount is given by the difference between hotelling rent and the discounted sum of future terms of trade effects capital gains the latter term is found to be large relative to the former in the case of petroleum depletion in indonesia this suggests that resource rich countries will need to invest more than previously expected to sustain their consumption levels if natural resource prices continue their long term historical decline

estimating intergenerational distribution preferences resource management decisions influence not only the output of the economy but also the distribution of utility between groups within the community the theory of cost benefit analysis provides a means of incorporating distributional changes into the decision making calculus through the application of distributional or welfare weights however this practice has not been widely adopted in part due to difficulties in the estimation of distributional weights this paper addresses this problem by using the stated preference method of choice modelling to estimate distributional weights suitable for inclusion in a cost benefit analysis framework the findings of a choice modelling experiment designed to estimate community preferences with respect to intergenerational utility distribution illustrate the potential of this method in addressing distributional issues

sustainability constraints versus optimality versus intertemporal concern and axioms versus data sustainable sustained or survivable development are defined here as distinct sustainability constraints on intertemporal distribution in a context which ignores uncertainty environmental and intratemporal concerns such constraints are neither self contradictory nor redundant for they can conflict with maximizing the present value of utility optimality nor inferior since the axioms underlying optimality are ethically arbitrary and refuted by empirical psychological data axiomatic arguments may clarify but cannot resolve debates about intertemporal concerns data suggest that sustainability constraints are not respected and that intertemporal welfare functions containing a preference for sustained improvement may better reflect what bodies politic mean by sustainability

the hartwick rule myths and facts we shed light on the hartwick rule for capital accumulation and resource depletion by providing semantic clarifications and investigating the implications and relevance of this rule we extend earlier results by establishing that the hartwick rule does not indicate sustainability and does not require substitutability between man made and naturalcapital we use a new class of simple counterexamples i to obtain the novel finding that a negative value of net investments need not entail that utility is unsustainable and ii to point out deficiencies in the literature

a general equilibrium model of exchange market intervention with variable sterilization abstract the model presented in this paper is characterized by rational expectations sticky prices imperfect capital substitution separate policy functions for domestic credit and credit and reserves and variable sterilization monetary intervention and sterilization policies offer complex tradeoffs between internal and external objectives sterilization dampens exchange rate and price changes due to intervention but magnifies short run changes due to foreign interest rate shocks the ratio of exchange rate to price changes due to intervention rises at an increasing rate with the degree of sterilization and changes in domestic credit induce long run purchasingn power parity but exogeneous changes in reserves income or the foreign interest rate do not

labour turnover in uk manufacturing a model of quits is constructed and combined with a labour demand function to produce a model of layoffs these are combined to provide an explanation of separations the main feature of this is the explicit incorporation of the interactions between quits and layoffs a linear approximation and a structural form are estimated on uk manufacturing data for 1965 82 it is shown that the most important determinant of separations is the state of demand in the labour market with some structural factors having a minor role to play