averting behavior in the presence of public spillovers household control of nuisance pests this paper empirically imple ments an averting behavior model for gypsy moth control explicitly recognizing the joint pri vate and public spillover motivations for con trol the results demonstrate that averting be havior models can capture complex behavioral influences suggesting that such models can be extended beyond health related applications the model yields a reduced form parameter which cannot be identified using actual behavior data alone a method combining models of ac tual behavior and contingent behavior is piro posed as a way to directly measure the produc tion and preference effects jel q23

models for referendum data the structure of discrete choice models for contingent valuation abstract in 1979 bishop and heberlein introduced an appealing variant of the contingent valuation method which required only yes or no responses hanemann developed a utility theoretic interpretation of the yes no responses which has helped popularize the approach recently cameron has offered another interpretation also utility theoretic which she argues is more general than the hanemann random utility model this paper compares the deterministic models suggested by hanemann and cameron showing them to be dual to each other it shows that correct specification of either function must exclude endogenous variables such as quantity demanded it also demonstrates that using utility theoretic models allows one to compare travel cost models and contigent valuation models on the basis of their implied behavior not on the unobservable surplus or variation measure

regional dimensions of the australian business cycle dixon r and shepherd d regional dimensions of the australian business cycle regional studies this paper deals with the identification of and explanations for co movement in regional business cycles using employment data for australian states and territories regions it shows that both raw growth rates and the deviations from a hodrick prescott trend reflect noise in the series as well as any cycle but that both can be manipulated so as to reveal their cyclical components it is found that growth rate models are dominated by noise whereas the hodrick prescott filter allows identification of the cyclical features of interest the extent of co movements in cyclical fluctuations in employment amongst the regions can be explained by regional industry structure and size of region dixon r and shepherd d hodrick prescott hodrick prescott

spatial evolution of social norms in a common pool resource game we study the conditions for the emergence of cooperation in a spatial common pool resource cpr game we consider three types of agents cooperators defectors and enforcers the role of enforcers is to punish defectors for overharvesting the resource agents are located on a circle and they only observe the actions of their two nearest neighbors their payoffs are determined by both local and global interactions and they modify their actions by imitating the strategy in their neighborhood with the highest average payoffs on average using theoretical and numerical analysis we find a large diversity of equilibria to be the outcome of the game in particular we find conditions for the occurrence of equilibria in which the three strategies coexist we also derive the stability of these equilibria finally we show that introducing resource dynamics in the system favors the occurrence of cooperative equilibria

the correlation of productivity growth across regions and industries in the united states abstract this paper shows that productivity growth is more strongly correlated across u s regions than across the g7 countries cross region correlations of productivity growth within a given industry are typically stronger than cross sector correlations of productivity growth within the same region

cross listing and pricing efficiency the informational and anchoring role played by the reference price abstract when a firm cross lists its shares in segmented markets the price of the first issued share as a reference plays both an informational and anchoring role in pricing the second issued share we develop a model illustrating the dual role empirically we examine a group of chinese firms that first issue foreign shares and then domestic a shares for which the anchoring effect adds to the a share underpricing consistent with the model predictions we find that the a share underpricing is positively related to the difference in costs of capital in the two segmented markets and that this positive association is weaker when participants are less likely to resort to the anchoring heuristic and when the a share valuation involves less uncertainty

the cyclical behavior of prices abstract the procyclical behavior of prices has been a staple of business cycle lore since the work of the early nber business cycle researchers this paper reexamines that empirical fact the aggregate data do not support procyclical price movements as a stable feature of the business cycle the only episode where it is a robust feature of the data is the period between the two world wars particularly the period of the great depression

an evolutionary approach to norms iorms provide a powerful mechanism for regulating conflict in groups even when there are more than two people and no central authority this paper investigates the emergence and stability of behavioral norms in the context of a game played by people of limited rationality the dynamics of this new norms game are analyzed with a computer simulation based upon the evolutionary principle that strategies shown to be relatively effective will be used more in the future than less effective strategies the results show the conditions under which norms can evolve and prove stable one interesting possibility is the employment of metanorms the willingness to punish someone who did not enforce a norm many historical examples of domestic and international norms are used to illustrate the wide variety of mechanisms that can support norms including metanorms dominance internalization deterrence social proof membership in groups law and reputation

local common property exploitation with rewards this paper analyzes coalition formation in a livestock pasture system where livestock are privately owned and the pasture is a common property while standard models predict rather low prospects of cooperation this paper introduces a cost advantage of cooperation based on saami reindeer herding that may explain higher coalition participation in contrast to the existing fishery literature on coalition formation all players are assumed ex ante homogenous but may differ ex post due to the cost advantage a stable equilibrium with cooperation can be reached and a moderate exploitation level can be sustained compared to the tragedy of the commons outcome

on savings and investment dynamics in a small open economy abstract this paper constructs a stochastic overlapping generations two country model of savings and investment under conditions of perfect international capital mobility the focus of the analysis is on the relationship between savings and investment dynamics in a small open economy in response to stochastic variations in domestic and or foreign production technologies the model is simulated under alternative specifications of the stochastic distribution governing both technologies this provides insight into the very complicated nature and rich diversity of possible relationships between savings and investment dynamics

a note on defensive expenditures harmonised law diverse results in the context of many environmental hazards there is scope for self defence by victims multiple equilibria arise in a model of bilateral precaution under a regime of strict but incompletely enforced environmental liability this means that the same system of environmental law instigated in two economies may lead to very different outcomes it impacts upon policy analysis in a variety of ways and provides a channel for cultural factors to matter we explore the positive and normative effects of subsidising self defence

combining contingent valuation and travel cost data for the valuation of non market goods the travel cost method tcm has long been used to infer the economic value of nonmarket resources and public goods more recently contingent valuation cvm survey methods have gained popularity for eliciting these values here cvm survey responses are combined with tcm data on actual market behavior to estimate jointly both the parameters of the underlying utility function and its corresponding ordinary demand function this is a prototypical empirical example of a new modeling strategy variants of which should prove useful in many applications especially where reliance on a single valuation method is undesirable

functional unpleasantness the evolutionary logic of righteous resentment economics experiments and everyday experience cast doubt on the assumption that people are self interested in divide the dollar ultimatum games participants turn down offers that would make them objectively better off similarly drivers stuck in a traffic jam fume at cars cruising by on the shoulder many stuck drivers would punish the moving ones if they could even at some cost to themselves such strategies appear irrational because they make the punisher worse off than accepting the situation or offer we examine explanations for costly punishment and relax the presumption that punishers themselves prefer cooperation using evolutionary game theory to show how uncooperative punishers can support cooperation

how smooth is price discovery evidence from cross listed stock trading abstract the adjustment to parity can be nonlinear for a cross listed pair convergence may be quicker when the price deviation is sufficiently profitable we propose a threshold error correction model ecm to gauge the market respective information shares of canadian listings traded on the toronto stock exchange tsx and the new york stock exchange nyse since dynamics may alternatively be gradual we further generalize the threshold framework to a smooth transition ecm the empirical implications are as follows first the tsx and the nyse appear to have integrated over time second parity convergence accelerates upon discounts on the cross listings on the nyse third we find a larger feedback from the nyse if the price gap exceeds the threshold required arbitrage return fourth informed traders tend to cluster on the nyse upon discounts on the cross listings fifth information share and threshold are affected by the relative degree of private information market friction and liquidity measures firm level characteristics and aggregate risks

measuring welfare changes in settings with imposed quantities abstract an intuitively attractive money metric utility measure is developed which is applicable in settings where individuals receive fixed quantities of one or more goods one use of this measure is in cost benefit analyses of imposed quantity changes the approximate measures typically used are shown to be subject to relatively large approximation errors however techniques are presented which can always be used to numerically evaluate the exact welfare measure provided that one knows the uncompensated demand function s or marginal willingness to pay function s of individuals

on the enforcement of territorial use rights regulations a game theoretic approach territorial use rights commonly known as turfs in the literature consists in the allocation of fishing rights to individuals and or groups to fish in certain geographical locations a requisite for these communities to be granted fishing rights is the formulation of a management and exploitation plan mep while thus far the literature on turfs has been centred on the biological and technical aspects of it to our knowledge there is no work squarely dealing with the issue of enforcement of the mep that the community once granted the fishing use rights have to comply with we formally explore this issue from an economic perspective by formulating a static game of norm compliance in a regime of common property resource exploitation the key characteristic of this game is a monitoring and sanctioning mechanism where fishermen monitor and sanction one another we found that in the absence of any endogenous regulation from the part of the fishing community turfs can not avoid the economic overexploitation of the fishery we discuss the importance of economic incentives and disincentives in the formulation of endogenous regulations aimed at ensuring compliance of the mep our results on the

risk sharing market imperfections asset prices evidence from china s stock market liberalization abstract we examine the roles of risk sharing and other factors in stock price revaluation during a recent liberalization episode in china consistent with the theoretical prediction that liberalizations reduce systematic risk we find that risk sharing explains approximately one fourth of the price revaluation of investible stocks during the eight month window between reform announcement and implementation the firm specific information generated by the reform is more efficiently priced into stocks that have a higher degree of market liquidity information transparency and informed trading

the determinants of cross border equity flows abstract we explore a new panel data set on bilateral gross cross border equity flows between 14 countries 1989 1996 we show that a gravity model explains international transactions in financial assets at least as well as goods trade transactions gross transaction flows depend on market size in source and destination country as well as trading costs in which both information and the transaction technology play a role distance proxies some information costs and other variables explicitly represent information transmission an information asymmetry between domestic and foreign investors and the efficiency of transactions the geography of information is the main determinant of the pattern of international transactions while there is weak support in our data for the diversification motive once we control for the informational friction we broaden the scope of our results by presenting some evidence linking the results on equity transactions to equity holdings

migration with endogenous moving costs we study a dynamic model of labor migration in which moving costs decrease with the number of migrants already settled in the destination this assumption is supported by sociological studies of migrant networks with endogenous moving costs migration occurs gradually over time once it starts it develops momentum and migratory flows may increase even as wage differentials narrow in addition migration tends to follow geographical channels and low moving cost individuals migrate first these patterns are consistent with historical evidence from the great black migration of 1915 1960 in the united states much of which cannot be reconciled with existing migration models excerpt

dissecting the tragedy a spatial model of behavior in the commons abstract much of the discussion of the tragedy of the commons focuses on aggregate impacts often in data poor developing country settings few non experimental empirical studies shed light on contextual circumstances driving the extent of rent dissipation and overexploitation we utilize a high resolution data set to estimate a behavioral model of fishermen s spatial choices a unique policy setting allows us to measure the degree to which individual fishermen s choices appear aimed at mitigating the tragedy of the commons in a small numbers setting we find evidence of partial mitigation in excess of what we would expect under pure self interest but short of what would occur under group maximizing behavior we also examine how contextual factors in the fishery shape the degree of cooperation within the fishing season and find evidence that competition for the common pool resource distorts fishermen s implicit cost of distance creating a form of common property inertia

adopting knowledge from reverse innovations transnational patents and signaling from an emerging economy is there knowledge adoption of innovations from emerging economies we theorize that to help overcome information asymmetry across countries granting patents to technology in the emerging economy of china can serve as a signal of technology potential and market opportunity to enhance technological knowledge adoption in a developed economy such as the united states the effect may be greater in a complex technology sector with high information asymmetry than in a discrete technology sector and in regions with less developed market intermediaries where information asymmetry is high our difference in differences estimates using 4226 china u s patent dyads and comparable u s patents support our hypotheses

linking common property resource management to human capital outcomes in regions where common pool resources provide significant support to their surrounding communities any climate change related shock could produce multiple livelihood repercussions in this paper a model explores how the health of common pool resources could impact upon human capital outcomes for communities that struggle to find alternate livelihood options when traditional means such as agriculture become unsustainable the management of common pool resources is modeled as a strategic interaction process between two heterogeneous communities that are directly or indirectly dependent upon it an unconstrained harvesting of common resources such as forestry not only depletes its stocks but it also indirectly affects crop output through soil degradation a number of situations are constructed where communities are able to successfully finance human capital accumulation through proper management of their common pool resources however results also warn that communities that are faced with limited opportunities towards accumulating human capital must plan ahead to prevent the depletion of their common resources below critical levels when non linear feedbacks to soil degradation emanate from low levels of common pool stocks human capital outcomes as well as future livelihoods of such communities are threatened

knowledge sharing and the dynamics of social capital abstract mutual aid often entails the sharing of knowledge we investigate how in turn knowledge sharing affects the long run dynamics of mutual aid in our economy agents with specific knowledge are held up by their principals inside communities agents aid each other by sharing their specific knowledge this process generates a new type of knowledge which exacerbates the specificity of the existing types and induces more agents to engage in mutual aid however since the knowledge generated is shared it progressively renders agents inside communities more flexible and thus less dependent on mutual aid we characterize conditions under which in the long run mutual aid spreads or is abandoned

incomplete intertemporal consumption smoothing and incomplete risk sharing this paper develops a method to estimate jointly the degree of intertemporal consumption smoothing and the degree of inter regional risk sharing the empirical results for the u s states and oecd and eu countries suggest that i regardless of the assumption on the degree of intertemporal consumption smoothing the degree of risk sharing within a country is larger than across countries ii the degree of intertemporal consumption smoothing within a country is also larger than across countries and iii the difference between the degree of intertemporal consumption smoothing within u s states and across oecd and eu countries is as large as the difference between the degree of risk sharing contrary to the findings of some past studies

evolutionary stability of pure strategy equilibria in finite games abstract sufficient conditions for pure strategy nash equilibria of finite games to be lyapunov stable under a large class of evolutionary dynamics the regular monotonic selection dynamics are discussed in particular it is shown that in almost all finite extensive form games all the pure strategy equilibria are stable in such games all mixed strategy equilibria close to pure strategy equilibria are also stable journal of economic literature classification numbers c70 c72

on the changing structure among chinese equity markets hong kong shanghai and shenzhen this study investigates information discovery among five chinese equity markets measured daily over the period 1995 2014 we employ time series methods for finding structural breaks if any and uncovering both short run and long run fluctuations we apply a new algorithm of inductive causation for use with non gaussian data to study the information flows in contemporaneous time the empirical results show that there are four break dates and that the underlying causal models changed over our study period the shanghai a share market dominates the other markets in the most recent period

a dynamic approach to forest regimes in developing economies abstract in the developing economies optimal forest regimes should incorporate the socio economic characteristics of the user groups and since socio economic factors will change with time optimal forest regimes will also follow a dynamic path the two most important socio economic factors are the heterogeneity of the user group with respect to forest management and the direct dependence of the user group on forest normally the heterogeneity will increase and dependence will decrease with economic growth of user group an optimal control model is used to integrate the dynamics of natural system such as joint product of forests and its growth function and the dynamics of the two socio economic factors heterogeneity and dependence the model demonstrates that the dynamics of optimal forest regimes will depend upon the change in natural factors socio economic factors and on the interactions between natural and socio economic factors hence optimal forest management strategies would require a continuous refinement in forest management regimes instead of static state regimes as local communities in developing economies pass through different phases of economic growth

willingness to pay for ozone control inferences from the demand for medical care abstract the paper applies a discrete choice version of the household production approach to the valuation of nonmarket goods willingness to pay for tropospheric ozone control is estimated using medical care demand under assumptions of input necessity and weak complementarity in example calculations individuals living in high ozone areas are willing to pay over 170 annually for an environment in which ozone concentrations never exceed 12 pphm willingness to pay figures are two to four times larger than medical expense savings caused by the same ozone reductions estimates obtained are compared with results of previous studies and proposed ozone control measures are discussed

the dynamics of a small open economy in response to monetary fiscal and productivity shocks abstract this paper evaluates empirically the relative importance of monetary and fiscal versus technology shocks in an open economy characterized by perfect international capital mobility the variance covariance matrix of these shocks is estimated a stochastic model is used to perform numerical simulations the results show that persistent shocks to productivity can reproduce several empirical regularities including the puzzling high correlation between national saving and investment remarkably well and that monetary and fiscal shocks play a minor role

evolutionary stability and media of exchange abstract the kiyotaki and wright model 1989 of money as a medium of exchange is analyzed within an evolutionary framework it is shown that fundamental speculative and polymorphic states can all be stable and that there may exist a multiplicity of stable states stringent assumptions regarding information and rationality are therefore unnecessary in order to explain the use of money as a medium of exchange even when the existence of a stable medium requires some individuals to trade their production good for one with a higher storage cost or when otherwise identical individuals must adopt different exchange strategies

international and intranational business cycles this paper surveys and analyzes the international real business cycle literature we re explore two international business cycle anomalies emphasized by backus kehoe and kydland 1995 as well as establishing the pattern of productivity growth between industries and countries we then compare these findings for the international business cycle to those obtained for data between regions within a country the so called intranational business cycle importantly the intranational business cycle is a natural environment for thinking about the interactions between economies when there are no trade frictions and when there are not multiple currencies we summarize our findings with a comparison between the stylized facts for international and intranational business cycles and draw some policy conclusions copyright 1997 by oxford university press

asymmetric shocks among u s states abstract the paper applies a factor model to the study of risk sharing among u s states the factor model makes it possible to disentangle movements in output and consumption due to national regional or state specific business cycles from those due to measurement error the results of the paper suggest that some findings of the previous literature which indicate a substantial amount of inter state risk sharing may be due to the presence of measurement error in output when measurement error is properly taken into account the evidence points towards a lack of inter state smoothing

subscribing to transparency abstract the paper empirically explores how more trade transparency affects market liquidity the analysis takes advantage of a unique setting in which the shanghai stock exchange offered more trade transparency to market participants subscribing to a new software package first the results show that the additional data disclosure increased trading activity but also increased transactions costs through wider bid ask spreads thus in contrast to popular policy belief the paper finds that more transparency need not improve market liquidity second the paper finds a particularly strong immediate liquidity impact accompanied by altered trading behavior which suggests a significant impact on institutional traders subscribing relatively early lastly since the effective level of market transparency is bound to depend on how many traders are subscribing to the data the study can empirically establish the functional form between market wide transparency and liquidity the relationship is non monotonic which can explain the lack of consensus in the existing literature where each empirical study is naturally confined to specific parts of the transparency domain

collective action for local commons management in rural yunnan china empirical evidence and hypotheses using evolutionary game theory this paper presents hypotheses regarding collective actions for irrigation management with the help of evolutionary game theory data for the analysis were collected by the author from the irrigation system of rural yunnan china an econometric analysis reveals that collective action will be forthcoming in rural communities where few nonfarm job opportunities are provided the degree of income disparity is quite small and resource restrictions are moderately problematic the finding that communities without local government intervention outperform those with intervention supports the proverbial view that external agencies should delegate significant parts of the control rights of common pool resources to immediate stakeholders

contagious cooperation temptation and ecosystem collapse real world observations suggest that social norms o f cooperation can be effective in overcoming social dilemmas such as the joint management of a c ommon pool resource but also that they can be subject to slow erosion and sudden collapse we show that these patterns of erosion and 15 collapse emerge endogenously in a model of a closed community harvesting a renewable natural resource in which individual agents face the tempta tion to overexploit the resource while a cooperative harvesting norm spreads through the community via interpersonal relations we analyze under what circumstances small changes in key parameters including the size of the community and the rate of technological progress trigger catastrophic transitions from 20 relatively high levels of cooperation to widespread norm violation causing the social ecological system to collapse

on the uniqueness of equilibrium in cournot oligopoly and other games abstract in an average surplus sharing game such as a cournot oligopoly a group of agents share a production process each contributes an amount of input to the process and output is divided in proportion to the amount of input contributed uniqueness of the equilibrium is needed for any type of comparative static analysis however general uniqueness results for concave games have restrictive assumptions on preferences and technology specifically the conditions needed for uniqueness become more difficult to meet as the number of players increases a new theorem for uniqueness with easily interpretable conditions is given which is independent of the number of players journal of economic literature classification numbers c70 c72 d43

effects on poverty and equity of the decline in collective tank irrigation management in tamil nadu india this paper investigates the factors influencing the decline in collective management of local commons and the impact of this decline on agricultural production and household consumption the analysis is based on a village and household data set collected in 1999 in tamil nadu india where tank irrigation systems are managed collectively for rice cultivation by informal water users organizations our statistical analyses find that one major reason for the decline in collective tank irrigation management is the dissemination of private well irrigation systems once the decline has occurred our analyses predict that the gap in rice yields between farmers who have access to private wells and those who must rely solely on tanks will widen with only the latter group suffering lower yields our analyses also find that the same pattern holds for levels of income and consumption because the affected farmers cannot sufficiently compensate for the loss of their rice income by diversifying their income sources to agricultural labor or non agricultural work in this way the decline in collective management results in greater inequality and poverty

on the sustainability of common property resources abstract we provide a model where a common property resource is managed by two types of agents cooperators and non cooperators who adjust their extraction strategies in response to persistent differential payoffs in our model the social approval of cooperators works as a reward mechanism which as we show favors both the pervasiveness of cooperative behavior and the sustainable management of natural resources specifically we show that in the presence of such a reward mechanism a stable equilibrium can be reached with both strategies being practiced simultaneously and a decentralized and sustainable management of common property resources is possible

harvesting dynamics in protected and unprotected areas we propose a dynamic model for studying the time evolution of fish stocks in an environment divided into two adjacent zones with different fishing policies we analyze two particular harvesting methods constant fishing effort and profit maximization in this case some agents engage in competition based on maximization of individual profit whereas others cooperate the asymptotic behavior of the system pinpoints that even if the presence of a reserve area leads to higher levels of sustainability in exploiting fish stocks attention should be paid in properly regulating the harvesting activity in order to avoid severe depletion of the resource

location matters an examination of trading profits the electronic trading system xetra of the german security exchange provides a unique data source on the equity trades of 756 professional traders located in 23 different cities and eight european countries we explore informational asymmetries across the trader population traders located outside germany in non german speaking cities show lower proprietary trading profit their underperformance is not only statistically significant it is also of economically significant magnitude and occurs for the 11 largest german blue chip stocks we also examine whether a trader location in frankfurt as the financial center or local proximity of the trader to the corporate headquarters of the traded stock or affiliation with a large financial institution results in superior trading performance the data provide no evidence for a financial center advantage or of increasing institutional scale economies in proprietary trading however we find evidence for an information advantage due to corporate headquarters proximity for high frequency intraday trading

household use of agricultural chemicals for soil pest management and own labor for yard work in spite of its potential health and environmental risks and contribution to agribusiness the use of agricultural chemicals for yard care has not been well studied in our discrete continuous choice model estimated with data from a national survey a household chooses how much money if any to initially spend on types of agricultural chemicals and applicators and how much time to subsequently spend on other yard work households in big cities or with large gardens are more likely to use organic chemicals the probability that a household chooses a mix of do it yourself and hired applications of synthetic chemicals increases with income age and the presence of preschoolers among households that apply only synthetic chemicals without hired help those with young children with higher incomes in big cities and with male heads spend more on the chemicals the time that such households spend on other yard work increases with expenditures on the chemicals cancellation of a pesticide registration might create an extra private cost for households with young children even though the ban might reduce external costs

cooperative and noncooperative protection against transferable and filterable externalities given self protection from an undesirable environmental externality we examine under several conditions the efficiency properties of cooperative and noncooperative behavior we demonstrate that if self protection can transfer the externality to another agent then noncooperative behavior will lead to overprotection if self protection filters or dilutes the externality then noncooperation leads to underprotection in addition overprotection will worsen if an agent with more relative power is allowed a first mover advantage or if the damage function is elastic and transferability is uncertain finally a reduction in uncertainty about transferability will accentuate overprotection if the damage function is inelastic our results suggest that coordination of protection activities among agents will enhance the overall gains from environmental policy in the european single internal market of 1992 coordination minimizes the costs of environmental protection thereby reducing the public credibility of its foes

urban accounting and welfare why do people live in particular cities we can list many reasons but two are undoubtedly relevant agents can enjoy the city or be more productive there a combination of life amenities and productivity levels determines the size of cities but the positive effects of these characteristics are capped by the costs and frictions arising from congestion depending on city governance and the flexibility of markets these costs and frictions can be more or less important these city characteristics are in turn enhanced and amplified by the presence of urban externalities understanding the different forces that determine city sizes is crucial for answering a broad set of questions what is the relative importance of these forces in determining the size distribution of cities how much would we gain or lose if cities had similar amenities technology levels or frictions how much reallocation would this cause more generally what are the welfare implications of the location of agents across cities in this paper we provide a simple way of decomposing the characteristics that lead to the size distribution of cities into three main components efficiency amenities and excessive frictions we use a simple urban theory to calculate these components and to carry out a wide set of counterfactual exercises that provide answers to the questions we asked above the theory consists of a multi city model with monocentric cities that produce a single good workers decide how much to work and where to live efficiency is modeled as tfp amenities as directly affecting preferences

the dynamic efficiency costs of common pool resource exploitation we conduct the first empirical investigation of common pool resource users dynamic and strategic behavior at the micro level using real world data fishermen s strategies in a fully dynamic game account for latent resource dynamics and other players actions revealing the profit structure of the fishery we compare the fishermen s actual and socially optimal exploitation paths under a time specific vessel allocation policy and find a sizable dynamic externality individual fishermen respond to other users by exerting effort above the optimal level early in the season congestion is costly instantaneously but is beneficial in the long run because it partially offsets dynamic inefficiencies jel d24 q21 q22

a currency union for hong kong and mainland china abstract this paper investigates the degree and the evolution of business cycle synchronization between hong kong sar and mainland china as well as hong kong sar and the united states with a two step procedure a structural var model is first set up to capture the dynamics of shocks to different regions then a state space model is used to gauge the degree of symmetry of regional shocks and to examine whether business cycles have been more synchronized over time our results cast doubt on the feasibility of a currency union between hong kong and mainland china in the foreseeable future

exchange rate expectations and the pricing of chinese cross listed stocks abstract i show that the price discounts of chinese cross listed stocks american depositary receipts adrs and h shares to their underlying a shares indicate the expected yuan us dollar exchange rate the forecasting models reveal that adr and h share discounts predict exchange rate changes more accurately than the random walk and forward exchange rates particularly at long forecast horizons using panel estimations i find that adr and h share investors form their exchange rate expectations according to standard exchange rate theories such as the harrod balassa samuelson effect the risk of competitive devaluations relative purchasing power parity uncovered interest rate parity and the risk of currency crisis

construct validity of dichotomous and polychotomous choice contingent valuation questions in this note we conduct construct validity tests for dichotomous choice dc and polychotomous choice pc contingent valuation questions contrary to previous results we find that dc and pc estimates of willingness to pay are theoretically valid convergent valid and similar in terms of statistical precision similar to previous results pc respondents are less sensitive to information than dc respondents we conclude that dc and pc valuation questions are construct valid for this study sequential pc valuation questions could be used in studies where obtaining information about the certainty or intensity of respondent preferences would be useful

information asymmetry and asset prices evidence from the china foreign share discount we examine the effect of information asymmetry on equity prices in the local a and foreign b share market in china we construct measures of information asymmetry based on market microstructure models and find that they explain a significant portion of cross sectional variation in b share discounts even after controlling for other factors on a univariate basis the price impact measure and the adverse selection component of the bid ask spread in the a and b share markets explains 44 and 46 of the variation in b share discounts on a multivariate basis both measures are far more statistically significant than any of the control variables the extent of information asymmetry in the international equity market has become a very important topic the question of whether domestic investors have better information than foreign investors has also become increasingly controversial for instance a few papers argue that domestic investors have a linguistic and cultural advantage brennan and cao 1997 choe kho and stulz 2001 and hau 2001 others argue that foreign investors have an informational advantage because they possess a significant amount of investment experience and expertise seasholes 2000 grinblatt and keloharju 2000

are prices countercyclical evidence from the g 7 abstract this paper re examines the cyclical behavior of prices using postwar quarterly data for the g 7 we confirm recent evidence that the price level is countercyclical however we find strong evidence that the inflation rate is procyclical in our sample our results show the importance of making a clear distinction between inflation and the cyclical component of the price level when reporting and interpreting stylized facts regarding business cycles

international real business cycles we ask whether a two country real business cycle model can account simultaneously for domestic and international aspects of business cycles with this question in mind we document a number of discrepancies between theory and data the most striking discrepancy concerns the correlations of consumption and output across countries in the data outputs are generally more highly correlated across countries than consumptions in the model we see the opposite

the evolution of social norms in common property resource use the problem of extracting commonly owned renewable resources is examined within an evolutionary game theoretic framework it is shown that cooperative behavior guided by norms of restraint and punishment may be stable in a well defined sense against invasion by narrowly self interested behavior the resource stock dynamics are integrated with the evolutionary game dynamics effects of changes in prices technology and social cohesion on extraction behavior and the long run stock are analyzed when threshold values of the parameters are crossed social norms can break down leading generally to the lowering of the long run stock and possibly to its extinction copyright 1996 by american economic association