a test of independence of discounting from quality of life the quality adjusted life years qaly model assumes quality and quantity of life can be multiplied into a single index and requires quality and quantity to be mutually independent which need not hold empirically this paper proposes a new test for measuring independence of utility of life duration from quality of life in a riskless setting we use a large representative sample of dutch citizens and include two health states generally considered better than dead btd and one health state considered worse than dead wtd independence cannot be rejected when comparing the btd health states but is rejected when comparing the btd states with the wtd state in particular utility of life duration becomes more concave for the wtd state this may suggest that independence holds only for btd health states this has implications for the qaly model and would require using sign dependent utility of life duration functions

auctions with resale when private values are uncertain evidence from the lab and field abstract auction theory represents one of the richest areas of research in economics over the past three decades yet whether and to what extent the introduction of secondary resale markets influences bidding behavior in sealed bid first price auctions remains under researched this study begins by examining field data from a unique data set that includes nearly 3000 auctions over 10 000 individual bids for cutting rights of standing timber in british columbia from 1996 to 2000 in comparing bidding patterns across agents who are likely to have resale opportunities with those who likely do not we find evidence that is consistent with theory critical evaluation of the reduced form bidding model however reveals that sharp tests of the theoretical predictions are not possible because several other differences may exist across these bidder types we therefore use a laboratory experiment to examine if the resale opportunity by itself can have the predicted theoretical effect we find that while it does have the predicted effect a theoretical model based on risk averse bidders explains the overall data patterns more accurately than a model based on risk neutral bidders beyond testing theory the paper highlights the inferential power of combining naturally occurring data with laboratory data

the consequences of minimum wage laws some new theoretical ideas economists generally agree that the effect of a binding minimum wage law is to move firms backward along the demand curve for low skill workers however this prediction of worker displacement depends critically on the assumption that the productivity of firms labor is not dependent on the wage in this paper we show that in a conventional efficiency wage model a minimum wage may increase the level of employment in low wage jobs the formal logic of our model is similar to the case of labor demand under monopsony but arises in a model with a large number of employers

the school to work transition a cross national perspective school to work patterns and issues are discussed for seven economies france germany japan the netherlands sweden the united kingdom and the united states the emphasis is placed on differences across countries in the current labor market position of young people and recent trends therein along with the institutions that regulate youth education training and employment the power of public policies including labor market deregulation labor market programs vocationalization of education and apprenticeship to improve youth outcomes is discussed drawing on national evaluation literatures evidence of extensive policy failure points up the need to develop nationally appropriate institutions to improve school to work transitions

measuring discounting without measuring utility we introduce a new method to measure the temporal discounting of money unlike preceding methods our method requires neither knowledge nor measurement of utility it is easier to implement clearer to subjects and requires fewer measurements than existing methods

economics health and health economics hyes healthy years equivalent versus qalys quality adjusted live year this paper responds to culyer and wagstaff s cw and buckingham s b arguments we refute their claim about the equivalence of hyes and qalys they fail to distinguish between choice under uncertainty and under certainty cw assume that all individuals have a specific form of utility function which yields their conclusion of equivalence b s arguments confuse the measurement technique and the utility theory from which it stems his argument about the normative superiority of the qaly construct is inconsistent with economic thinking the hye by being compatible with the principles of economics is superior to the qaly for economic evaluations of health care interventions

assessing individual risk attitudes using field data from lottery games we use information from the television game show with the highest guaranteed average payoff in the united states hoosier millionaire to analyze risktaking in a high stakes experiment we characterize gambling decisions under alternative assumptions about contestant behavior and preferences and derive testable restrictions on individual risk attitudes based on this characterization we then use an extensive sample of gambling decisions to estimate distributions of risk aversion parameters consistent with the theoretical restrictions and revealed preferences we find that although most contestants display risk averse preferences the extent of the risk aversion implied by our estimates varies substantially with the stakes involved in the different decisions

time preference the discounted utility model and health the constant rate discounted utility model is commonly used to represent intertemporal preferences in health care program evaluations this paper examines the appropriateness of this model and argues that the model fails both normatively and descriptively as a representation of individual intertemporal preferences for health outcomes variable rate discounted utility models are more flexible but still require restrictive assumptions and may lead to dynamically inconsistent behaviour the paper concludes by considering two ways of incorporating individual intertemporal preferences in health care program evaluations that allow for complementarity of health outcomes in different time periods

the effects of minimum wages on wage dispersion and employment evidence from the u k wages councils using data on wages council coverage from the united kingdom new earnings survey the authors examine the impact of mandated minimum wages on wage dispersion and employment in the united kingdom in the 1980s they find evidence that a dramatic decline in the toughness of the regulation imposed by the wages councils through the 1980s a decline that is in the level of the minimum wage relative to the average wage significantly contributed to widening wage dispersion over those years there is however no evidence of an increase in employment resulting from the weakening bite of the wages council minimum pay rates instead consistent with the conclusions of several recent u s studies the findings suggest that the minimum wage had either no effect or a positive effect on employment

on negative time preferences abstract survey data show that subjects positively discount both gains and losses but discount gains more heavily than losses this holds for monetary and non monetary outcomes these results do not confirm the findings of two earlier studies about negative time preferences for non monetary outcomes

do auctions induce a winner s curse new evidence from the corporate takeover market abstract we contrast the winner s curse hypothesis and the competitive market hypothesis as potential explanations for the observed returns to bidders in corporate takeovers the winner s curse hypothesis posits suboptimal behavior in which winning bidders fail to adapt their strategies to the level of competition and the amount of uncertainty in the takeover environment and predicts that bidder returns are inversely related to the level of competition in a given deal and to the uncertainty in the value of the target our measure of takeover competition comes from a unique data set on the auction process that occurs prior to the announcement of a takeover in our empirical estimation we control for the endogeneity between bidder returns and the level of competition in takeover deals controlling for endogeneity we find that the returns to bidders are not significantly related to takeover competition we also find that uncertainty in the value of the target does not reduce bidder returns related analysis indicates that prestigious investment banks do not promote overbidding analysis of post takeover operating performance also fails to find any negative effects of takeover competition as a whole the results indicate that the breakeven returns to bidders in corporate takeovers stem not from the winner s curse but from the competitive market for targets that occurs predominantly prior to the public announcement of bids

long term impact of minimum wages on workers careers evidence from two decades of longitudinal linked employer employee data i acknowledge the support of the spanish ministry of the economy severo ochoa programme for centres of excellence in r d sev20150563 the aei spain and feder ue grant eco2016 76734 p

a comparison of the discounted utility model and hyperbolic discounting models in the case of social and private intertemporal preferences for health whilst there is substantial evidence that hyperbolic discounting models describe intertemporal preferences for monetary outcomes better than the discounted utility du model there is only very limited evidence in the context of health outcomes this study elicits private and social intertemporal preferences for non fatal changes in health specific functional forms of the du model and three hyperbolic models are fitted the results show that the stationarity axiom is violated and that the hyperbolic models fit the data better than the du model intertemporal preferences for private and social decisions are found to be very similar

the welfare costs of union wage compression abstract this paper calculates the quantitative significance of the welfare costs of union wage compression this is done in a dynamic general equilibrium model with overlapping generations where agents choose both schooling human capital and assets physical capital the labor market in this model is characterized as a right to manage contract which allows unions to compress wage differentials between high and low skilled workers by implementing a binding minimum wage this paper shows that when labor markets are competitive even low levels of wage compression lead to large welfare losses since wage compression creates costly unemployment among low skilled workers the effect of wage compression on the supply of skilled labor however is rather small since the disincentive effect of a lower high skilled wage is to a large extent offset by a lower opportunity cost of schooling due to higher unemployment

hedonic wages and labor market search this article investigates the consequences of labor market search for the theory of hedonic wages we find that the introduction of search has surprising consequences for the theory of hedonic wages in particular we demonstrate that the equilibrium distribution of wage and nonwage amenity bundles generally bears little resemblance to workers underlying preferences a consequence of this analysis is that estimates of workers marginal willingness to pay derived from the conventional hedonic wage methodology are biased in addition we demonstrate that search generates differences between firm level and employee level data that can cause substantial deviations in the estimates of hedonic wage equations

the fragility of time time insensitivity and valuation of the near and far future we propose that the temporal dimension is fragile in that choices are insufficiently sensitive to it and second such sensitivity as exists is exceptionally malleable unlike other dimensions such as money which are attended by default to test this we axiomatize a constant sensitivity discount function and in four studies we show that the degree of time sensitivity is inadequate relative to the compound discounting norm and strongly susceptible to manipulation time sensitivity is increased by a comparative within subject presentation experiment 1 direct instruction experiment 3 and provision of a visual cue for time duration experiment 4 time sensitivity is decreased using a time pressure manipulation experiment 2 in each study the sensitivity manipulation has an opposite effect on near future and far future valuations increased sensitivity decreases discounting in the near future and increases discounting in the far future in contrast such sensitivity manipulations have little effect on the money dimension

super experienced bidders in first price common value auctions rules of thumb nash equilibrium bidding and the winner s curse super experienced bidders have learned to overcome the winner s curse but still earn less than 50 of nash equilibrium profits subjects deviate from the complicated nash strategy employing piecew

aggregation of heterogeneous time preferences we examine an economy whose consumers have different discount factors for utility possibly not exponential we characterize the properties of efficient allocations of resources and of the shadow prices that would decentralize such allocations we show in particular that the representative agent has a decreasing discount rate when as is usually posited all of a group s members have a constant discount rate and decreasing absolute risk aversion preferences we also identify conditions that lead the representative agent to have a rate of impatience that decreases with gross domestic product per capita

minimum wages in an equilibrium search model with diminishing returns to labor in production this article analyzes a minimum wage in a market with imperfect information and job search it establishes that employment effects of a minimum wage do not generally indicate welfare effects it shows that researchers interested in welfare consequences should ask two questions first is the existing minimum wage binding second do some firms that would be bound by a new minimum wage presently experience labor shortages if the answers to these questions are no and yes respectively this article supports the conclusion that a higher minimum wage is welfare improving regardless of its effect on the unemployment rate

researching preferences valuation and hypothetical bias a number of recent papers in environmental economics have focused on the process of researching preferences agents are uncertain about preferences but with effort may narrow their uncertainty this issue has arisen in formulating bids in contingent valuation cv as well as the debate over the divergence between wtp and wta in the context of cv it has been suggested that the hypothetical nature of the preference elicitation process biases responses this paper provides both a theoretical model and experimental evidence to contribute to this debate the model is a model of competitive bidding for a private good with two components that are particularly relevant to the debate the first component is that bidders are unsure of their own value for the private good but may purchase information about their own value researching preferences the second component is that there is a probability that the auction is hypothetical that the winning bidder will not get the private good and will not pay the winning bid the experiment tests this theoretical model of bidding equilibrium and analyzes the effects of variations in the parameters hypotheticalness information costs and number of agents on the endogenous variables such as the proportion of bidders who become informed and the winning bid experimental results suggest that an increase in the hypotheticalness of an auction tends to decrease the likelihood that bidders pay for information on their valuation with an ambiguous effect on the winning bid

interdependent value auctions with insider information theory and experiment abstract we develop a model of interdependent value auctions in which two types of bidders compete insiders who are perfectly informed about their value and outsiders who are informed only about the private component of their value because the bidding strategy of outsiders cannot efficiently adjust with that of insiders the second price auction is inefficient the english auction has an equilibrium in which the information outsiders infer from the history of drop out prices enables them to bid toward attaining efficiency the presence of insiders has positive impacts on the seller s revenue a laboratory experiment confirms key theoretical predictions despite evidence of naive bidding

frames of reference and the quality of life asked to choose most people state confidently that they would rather be killed in an automobile accident than to survive a quadraplegic and so we are not surprised to learn that severely disabled people experience a period of devastating depression and disorientation in the wake of their accidents what we do not expect however are the speed and extent to which many of these victims accommodate to their new circumstances within a year s time many quadraplegics report the same mix of moods and emotions as able bodied people do there is also evidence that the blind the retarded and the malformed are no less happy than other people ads for the new york state lottery show participants fantasizing about how their lives would change if they won i d buy the company and fire my boss people who actually do win the lottery report the anticipated rush of euphoria in the weeks after their good fortune followup studies done after several years however indicate that these people are no happier indeed are in many ways less happy than before as a young man fresh out of college i served as a peace corps volunteer in rural nepal my one room house had no electricity no heat no indoor toilet no running water the local diet offered little variety and virtually no meat and yet at no time during my two year stay in nepal did i experience a sense of material deprivation on the contrary my monthly stipend of 40 was much more than most others in my village had and with it i experienced a feeling of prosperity that i have recaptured only in recent years these observations illustrate the critical role of context as a determinant of human satisfaction the neoclassical economic model of choice abstracts from context saying that utility depends only on the level of consumption consumption levels obviously are important and the neoclassical model performs reasonably well in many instances and yet its narrow focus misses something important to predict people s behavior to draw inferences about their well being or to make intelligent policy decisions we must not only know the relevant levels of consumption but also have an appropriate frame of reference within which to evaluate them

the small sample bias of the gini coefficient results and implications for empirical research the gini coefficient is a downward biased measure of inequality in small populations when income is generated by one of three common distributions the paper discusses the sources of bias and argues that this property is far more general this has implications for i the comparison of inequality among subsamples some of which may be small and ii the use of the gini in measuring firm size inequality in markets with a small number of firms the small sample bias has often led to misperceptions about trends in industry concentration a small sample adjustment results in a reduced bias which can no longer be signed this remaining bias rises with the dispersion and falls with increasing skewness of the distribution finally an empirical example illustrates the importance of using the adjusted gini in this example it is shown that controlling for market characteristics larger shipping cartels include a set of firms that is stochastically identical in terms of relative size to those of smaller shipp

the complexity effects on choice with uncertainty experimental evidence we present experimental evidence suggesting that human subjects dislike complexity in choice with uncertainty our results suggest that the probability of choosing a given alternative decreases with the relative complexity of that alternative complexity increases the noise in the choice process and the chances that the otherwise inferior alternative will be selected our results contradict the predictions of discounted expected utility theory and intuitively appealing axioms like stochastic dominance and convexity these complexity effects may lead to inefficient portfolio selection the perceived complexity of a given lottery may depend on editing procedures and be subjected to framing effects the flourishing experimental research on individual choice over the last two decades has produced a list of anomalies suggesting that human agents behaviour is frequently incompatible with the formal models traditionally employed in the economic literature 1 some of these anomalies eg the certainty effect of kahneman and tversky 1979 have demonstrated that individual behaviour is inconsistent with the von neumann morgenstern expected utility theory alternative models like prospect theory kahneman and tversky 1979 anticipated utility quiggin 1982 and many others have been suggested to resolve the contradictions other anomalies eg the evidence on hyperbolic discounting presented by thaler 1981 have referred to the case of intertemporal choice and suggested that human subjects do not comply with samuelson s discounted utility model again attempts have been made to develop alternative models that reconcile the inconsistencies see for example loewenstein and prelec 1992 this paper concentrates on a different anomaly that seems inconsistent with the evaluation models that are typically assumed in the economic literature the basic simple idea is that human subjects are inclined to avoid complicated lotteries accordingly they sometimes discriminate against complicated lotteries and prefer simple lotteries to complicated ones in cases where the value of the complicated lottery should be higher in particular we demonstrate that complexity affects choice in two ways 1 the probability of choosing a given alternative in binary choice tasks decreases with the relative complexity of that alternative 2 the noise in the choice process increases with complexity and thus the chances that the otherwise inferior alternative will be selected increase as well

cigarette smoking and self control this paper empirically studies time inconsistent preferences in the context of cigarette smoking behavior with hyperbolic discounting an individual has time inconsistent preferences which give rise to a lack of self control i e she may perpetually postpone the execution of a plan this implies that a smoker who wants to quit has a demand for control devices e g a smoking ban in public areas or a hike in cigarette excise taxes this paper empirically tests this implication using a sample that is based on survey data from taiwan the estimation results indicate that a smoker s intention to quit has a positive effect on the smoker s support for smoking bans and a cigarette excise tax increase these results lend support to the validity of the time inconsistent preferences in the context of cigarette smoking behavior this casts doubt on the validity of the assumption that individuals have time consistent preferences in becker and murphy s becker g s murphy k m 1988 a theory of rational addiction journal of political economy 96 4 675 700 rational addiction model

minimum wages on the job training and wage growth using data from the employment opportunities pilot project we examine the relationships between minimum wages wage growth and on the job training we find that minimum wage jobs exhibit less wage growth than other jobs particularly for men we find no evidence however of a unique minimum wage effect on training opportunities we conclude that indirect methods of proxying training with wage growth can be misleading as they fail to distinguish whether the reduced wage growth of workers on minimum wage jobs results from their receiving less training than other workers or whether it is strictly a result of the wage determination process

minimum wages and youth unemployment abstract this paper constructs a labor search model to explore the effects of minimum wages on youth unemployment to capture the gradual decline in unemployment for young workers as they age the standard search model is extended so that workers gain experience when employed experienced workers have higher average productivity and lower job finding and separation rates that match wage and worker flow data in this environment minimum wages can have large effects on unemployment because they interact with a worker s ability to gain job experience the increase in minimum wages between 2007 and 2009 can account for a 0 8 percentage point increase in the steady state unemployment rate and a 2 8 percentage point increase in unemployment for 15 24 year old workers in the model parameterized to simulate outcomes of high school educated workers minimum wages can also help explain the high rates of youth unemployment in france compared to the united states

decision making over time and under uncertainty a common approach this paper considers a number of parallels between risky and intertemporal choice we begin by demonstrating a one to one correspondence between the behavioral violations of the respective normative theories for the two domains i e expected utility and discounted utility models we argue that such violations or preference reversals are broadly consistent with three propositions about the weight that an attribute receives in both types of multiattribute choice specifically it appears that 1 if we add a constant to all values of an attribute then that attribute becomes less important 2 if we proportionately increase all values of an attribute or if we change the sign of an attribute from positive to negative then that attribute becomes more important the generality of these propositions as well as the constraints they would impose on separable representations of multiattribute preferences is discussed

innovation inequality and intellectual property rights we examine whether income inequality explains innovation across countries the mechanism could be twofold first a large middle class could have an impact on institutions including intellectual property rights iprs which could in turn affect innovation second evidence from us economic history suggests direct linkages between middle class share and innovation via supply and demand effects using ive to address endogeneity we find that middle class share explains patterns of resident patenting while non resident patenting is driven more by exogenous factors and global integration our results illustrate an additional channel through which income inequality can impact long run growth

rising inequality changes in the distribution of income and consumption in the 1980s this paper examines changes in the distribution of income and consumption in the united states during the 1980s using data from the current population survey income and consumer expenditure survey consumption we reach three primary conclusions first changes in the distribution of consumption parallel changes in the distribution of income the lowest quintile of the consumption distribution received 0 9 percentage points less of total consumption in 1988 than in 1980 the corresponding decline for income was 0 6 percentage points second broad conclusions concerning recent changes in the consumption distribution are not very sensitive to the exact choice of a measure of family needs under a wide variety of alternative household equivalence scales there is a widening in the consumption distribution in the 1980s third the usc of consumption measures of well being in place of measures based on current money income docs change conclusions concerning the extent of poverty in the united stales using the official federal poverty thresholds we find that the overall consumption poverty rate was three percentage points below the income poverty rate in 1988 comparisons of the poverty rates of the elderly and the non elderly are substantially affected by the choice of poverty measure the consumption poverty rare for the elderly was only 60 percent of the rate for adults and one third of the rate for children in 1988 this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

auctions and land values an experimental analysis although urban land development is a well researched area there has been inadequate research on the allocation mechanism for land this paper offers a new perspective on the effects of the auction mechanism on land values by appealing to an experimental setting to examine the bidding behaviour of developers in repeated first price sealed bid fpsb auctions where resolution of price uncertainty development revenue is deferred it is shown that overbidding is pervasive participants consistently shave expected profit margins in order to secure land for development the actual profit margins reported in all experiments are significantly lower than the suggested benchmark made known before the experiments consequently participants tend to experience smaller ex post profits relative to ex ante expectations however we find that repeated bidding does mitigate overbidding to some extent as evidenced by lower differences in the winning bid to the second highest bid convergence in the range of bids occur

risk aversion and the winner s curse this article analyzes an auction in which bidders see independent components of a common prize value the nash equilibrium for two rational bidders is shown to be independent of risk attitudes the information structure allows explicit calculation of an alternative equilibrium in which naive bidders do not correctly discount the value of the prize contingent on winning and thus they suffer the winner s curse subjects in a laboratory experiment clearly fall prey to the winner s curse the data conform most closely to the predictions of the naive model moreover the level of risk aversion implied by fitting the naive model is similar to an independent risk aversion measure obtained in a separate private value bidding exercise

the source of optimality in action it is well known that the nature of the information set and the axioms of rational choice are critical in determining the type of ranking on which agents are held to act in economic theory this paper argues that the concept of the optimising agent is also sensitive to the conception of the relation between a ranking of options facing an agent and concrete action what is termed the realisation process three conceptions of the realisation process are examined which are seen to lead to three quite distinct views on the role of agency the enabling conditions under which the concept of the optimising agent may be legitimately applied and the resulting domain of application of optimisation

economic and ecological concepts for valuing ecosystem services abstract the purpose of this special issue is to elucidate concepts of value and methods of valuation that will assist in guiding human decisions vis a vis ecosystems the concept of ecosystem service value can be a useful guide when distinguishing and measuring where trade offs between society and the rest of nature are possible and where they can be made to enhance human welfare in a sustainable manner while win win opportunities for human activities within the environment may exist they also appear to be increasingly scarce in a full global ecological economic system this makes valuation all the more essential for guiding future human activity this paper provides some history background and context for many of the issues addressed by the remaining papers in this special issue its purpose is to place both economic and ecological meanings of value and their respective valuation methods in a comparative context highlighting strengths weakness and addressing questions that arise from their integration

legal minimum wages and employment duration 1 introductionthe effect of a legal minimum wage on employee turnover is an important consideration when evaluating the effectiveness of a minimum wage policy if an increase in the minimum wage results in greater turnover then firms hiring costs are increased and the direct benefit to workers who are paid the minimum wage may be lessened a reduction in turnover on the other hand would mean more stability for employers and workers though access to minimum wage jobs may be reduced for job seekers despite the recent proliferation of studies on the effects of legal minimum wages their impact on turnover has received relatively little attention from economists this may be due to the fact that much of the literature focuses on the teen labor market where there is more churning than in the adult labor market gardecki and neumark 1998 the fact remains however that a significant proportion of workers hired at the minimum wage are adults and the effects of the minimum wage onthe turnover hazard are understudied 1standard economic theory suggests that a price floor such as a minimum wage results in fewer transactions and in rents for those suppliers who manage to sell in the context of the labor market this means workers in minimum wage jobs may be expected to receive rents and therefore may be less likely to quit another possible consequence of a minimum wage arises from imperfect information in the labor market combined with heterogeneity among workers and jobs prior to the start of an employment relationship the worker does not know all the relevant aspects of the job and the employer does not know all the important characteristics of the worker as a result in the absence of a mandated minimum wage job applicants may use wage offers to infer information about the nonpecuniary aspects of jobs thereby facilitating the matching process a binding minimum wage compresses the wage distribution so that a single wage is associated with a larger array of jobs this means that the wage offer becomes a poor indicator of a job s nonwage characteristics which leads to a higher proportion of poor matches and consequently more turnover this paper uses data on young men and women in the 1988 1994 rounds of the national longitudinal survey of youth nlsy to estimate the relationship between the minimum wage and the turnover hazard the extent to which the minimum wage binds varies across states both because of differences in state laws and because of differences in wage levels across states we exploit this variation to estimate turnover hazards as a function of the ratio of the nominal minimum wage to the state median wage this variable measures the extent to which the minimum wage binds we find some evidence that in states where the minimum wage is low relative to the state s median wage men hired at the minimum wage have lower employee initiated separation hazards than other low wage workers as the minimum wage rises relative to the prevailing median wage that is as the minimum wage becomes more binding men hired at the minimum wage are increasingly likely to leave their jobs at any given duration when the minimum wage is high relative to the median wage we find that men hired at the minimum wage have significantly higher employee initiated separation hazards than other low wage workers we interpret these findings as evidence that while rents may accrue to minimum wage workers the job matching process is undermined when the minimum wage binds our results apply to the men in our sample but not to the women indeed for women we find no connection between employment duration and the starting wage rate though we do uncover some evidence that for women in low wage jobs employment duration is more elastic with respect to the presence of family friendly fringe benefits than it is for men the paper proceeds as follows the next section explores the possible reasons minimum wages would affect turnover and discusses the existing empirical and theoretical research on this topic

the merits of dual pricing of russian natural gas our analysis reveals that from russia s perspective there is no economic rationale to unify the price of natural gas it sells domestically and in europe we argue that pipelines allow gazprom to segment the russian market from the european including turkey market and that russia has market power in the european market if russia were to fail to exploit this market power in its european market by selling its natural gas to europe at only full long run marginal cost plus transportation costs russia would lose between 5 billion and 7 5 billion per year almost two per cent of its gdp if instead russia were to raise its domestic prices to the prices it charges in europe russian industry would incur very large investment adjustment and unemployment costs in the short run adjustment costs that cannot be justified on the basis of comparative advantage we estimate that the efficient world price would be achieved if gazprom were to employ its optimal two part tariff the optimal two part tariff would double gazprom s annual profits in europe but it involves significant long term risks for gazprom of lost market share

russian gas price reform and the eu russia gas relationship incentives consequences and european security of supply in order to provide a comprehensive picture on the relationship between russia and the eu the focus should be on both the external energy relationship as well as russia s internal organization this paper sets out to do this by combining both strands of research in order to arrive at recommendations for europe on the way to adjust its energy policy towards russia the emphasis is on whether or not russia should impose unified gas pricing main conclusions are that the perceived advantages of unified russian gas pricing to russia as well as europe are in fact overstated and that eu security of supply might worsen under unified gas prices three policy recommendations are that eu policy should 1 more explicitly acknowledge the interdependence between russia and europe 2 not push russia towards unified gas pricing and 3 not take for granted any increase in russian exports flowing to europe

intertemporal valuation in an unpredictable environment abstract the inherent unpredictability of ecological systems is a vital feature for the development of theories at the interface between economics and ecology such unpredictability is caused by instabilities that are intrinsic parts of ecosystem function succession and evolution the complexity of ecological dynamics undermines the simple probabilistic treatment of uncertainty based on the equilibrium paradigm common in traditional environmental economics we investigate an important alternative by representing the dynamics of the biogeophysical system as an infinite sequence of instabilities this leads to a stochastic process exhibiting an exponentially growing variance our analysis is carried out in a macroeconomic setting in a situation where the value system here formalized in terms of risk averse social welfare functions contains at least two distinct aspects consumption rate and the state of the environment the central variables for intertemporal valuation i e the time dependent expected values of the two welfare function components are calculated using the probability distribution describing the environmental dynamics one result is that if the unpredictability of the environmental dynamics is taken into account then the social discount rate for environmental existence values may well be negative

learning in common value auctions some initial observations abstract inexperienced bidders in first price common value auctions suffer from a winner s curse losing money on average with experience bidders approximate the nash equilibrium the mechanisms underlying this adjustment are 1 a market selection effect as the most aggressive bidders are less likely to return for subsequent sessions and 2 players who lose money bid less experiential learning and those who would have lost money had they won the auction with the high bidder s signal bid less observational learning

when does money make money more important survey and experimental evidence the authors investigate how the amount and source of income affects the importance placed on money using a longitudinal analysis of the british household panel survey and evidence from two laboratory experiments they found that larger amounts of money received for labor were associated with individuals placing greater importance on money but this effect did not hold for money not related to work the longitudinal survey analysis demonstrated these differential effects of the source of income on money s importance while holding constant stable individual differences the experiments provide causal evidence that the source of income has an effect on the importance of money as well as on the effort expended to earn more money the authors results suggest that even as individual differences in the importance placed on money may affect peoples income depending on its source income can also affect the importance people place on money

good jobs bad jobs and redistribution we analyse the question of optimal taxation in a dual economy when the policy maker is concerned about the distribution of labour income income inequality is caused by the presence of sunk capital investments which creates a good jobs sector due to the capture of quasi rents by trade unions with strong unions and high planner preference for income equality the optimal policy is a combination of investment subsidies and progressive income taxation if unions are weaker the policy maker may instead choose to tax investment

asset pricing with a forward backward stochastic differential utility abstract in an intertemporal setting we model the anticipation disappointment effect through a habit formation process which is a function of past consumption and of past expected utility we show that in equilibrium the anticipation effect reduces the risk premium whereas the disappointment effect induces a higher risk premium

redistribution and affirmative action abstract the paper develops an integrated political economy model in which individuals are distinguished by earning ability and an ascriptive characteristic race the policy space is a transfer payment to low income workers financed by a flat tax on wages and an affirmative action constraint on firms hiring decisions the distribution of income and the policy are endogenous with the latter being the outcome of a legislative bargaining game between three legislative blocs the model provides support for the common claim that racial divisions reduce support for welfare expenditures even when voters have color blind preferences we show that relatively advantaged members of both the majority and minority group benefit from the introduction of a second dimension of redistribution while the less advantaged members of the majority are the principal losers

empirical determinants of intertemporal choice abstract we provide new evidence on the empirical determinants of intertemporal financial decisions we use an exogenously imposed choice affecting nearly all croatian retirees to study characteristics associated with choosing a larger deferred stream of payments over a smaller more immediate payment individuals are more willing to defer if they have higher incomes and are not liquidity constrained have a longer time horizon because of better health and longer life expectancy and have stronger bequest motives individuals who expect currency devaluation or political risk to reduce the value of future income are more likely to take the earlier income stream

minimum wages and the incentives for skill formation we show that minimum wages may have beneficial effects on human capital allocation in a situation when the marginal product of skilled labor is shared between firm and worker according to bargaining strength firms prefer more productive workers to less p

russian gas exchange a new indicator of market efficiency and competition or the instrument of monopolist abstract russian government sanctioned the first gas trade at the saint petersburg international mercantile exchange spimex in 2012 as a part of the gas industry national strategy federal antimonopoly service fas proposed a reform aimed to boost competition among producers and to increase consumer welfare the proposal included lifting of price floor regulation for gazprom that supposed to be a vital element of transition from the government price regulation to spimex benchmark for over the counter otc segment structural reform of this scale has never happened in russia furthermore there are only descriptive studies in the existing literature this paper aims to fill this gap by testing market efficiency in spimex based on fama s theory with the well established model we test the consistency of gas futures and spot prices for unbiasedness we imply this methodology because in transition to exchange benchmark it is necessary that price is formed under market forces and is not influenced by players who have market power or dominance to make a reasonable conclusion we supplement the simulation by relevant qualitative analysis of liquidity price differentials between contracts and market concentration in the exchange the goal of the paper is to answer whether the exchange price today can be a benchmark and substitute for the state regulated price combined with qualitative analysis we argue that the scheduled deregulation counterintuitively may improve the dominance of gazprom in the domestic market

do minimum wages fight poverty i introduction one of the most compelling rationales for a national minimum wage floor is to raise the incomes of poor or near poor families with members in the workforce this general point however is often missed in the debates over the merits of a higher minimum wage in contrast to these oft stated distributional goals much of the focus in such debates has been on the employment effects of minimum wages especially among the teenage population in large part this focus is probably attributable to the extensive body of economic research on the effects of minimum wages on employment of low skilled workers however although negative employment effects represent a cost of minimum wages such costs do not necessarily imply that minimum wages constitute bad social policy in particular the employment losses associated with a higher minimum wage may be more than offset by positive effects on low income families especially if minimum wages are a significant factor in helping move families out of poverty 1 this is not to argue that research on employment effects of minimum wages is irrelevant but such research may be more important as a test of the theory of labor demand and as a method of learning how employers and individuals adjust to exogenous wage increases than as a method of assessing the wisdom of the policy in addition we do not mean to suggest that the short run effects of minimum wages on the incomes of poor families should be the sole criterion for evaluating such policies other studies have found evidence suggesting for example that minimum wage increases reduce school enrollment rates and training neumark and wascher 1996a hashimoto 1982 factors that may affect longer run earnings or earnings growth these deleterious longer run effects might offset the benefits of shorter run effects of minimum wages on family incomes nonetheless our perception is that potential increases in the incomes of poor families provide the main motivation for raising the minimum wage making it important to assess the evidence on whether minimum wage increases achieve this goal in this regard there are two questions that pertain to the influence of minimum wages on family incomes generally and on poverty in particular first there is the question of the effects of minimum wages on low wage workers that is do the wage gains received by employed workers more than offset the lost earnings suffered by those who lose or cannot find jobs 2 second there is the question of how minimum wages affect workers in different parts of the family income distribution because many roughly speaking a large minority of minimum wage workers are in relatively affluent families gramlich 1976 card and krueger 1995 burkhauser et al 1996 which workers gain and which lose will have an important influence on the effects of minimum wages on the distribution of family incomes in this article we present evidence on the effects of minimum wages on family incomes focusing in particular but not solely on the effectiveness of minimum wages in reducing poverty using matched march current population surveys cpss we estimate the effects of minimum wages on the probabilities of various transitions in the family income distribution such as transitions into and out of poverty given that federal changes in minimum wages may be confounded with other aggregate level shocks influencing family income we rely heavily on state level changes in minimum wages to identify minimum wage effects in a nutshell our empirical strategy is to compare rates of transition through the family income distribution in states in which minimum wages do and do not increase for example if poor families are more likely to escape from poverty when minimum wages increase in their states of residence we would infer that minimum wage hikes help families move out of poverty on the other hand if transitions in to poverty are more common when minimum wages increase we would infer that the disemployment effects of minimum wages play a dominant role among the low income population

ambiguous changes in product quality economic goods are frequently sold according to a price per unit quantity where the quantity characteristic does not measure all the economically important characteristics of the good milk is sold by the quart automobiles rented by the mile physicians services bought by the visit and tennis lessons by the hour in all cases heterogeneous units are available in the market and the price per unit quantity depends upon the amount of the unpriced characteristic contained in each unit the per quart price of milk depends upon the butterfat content the mileage costs of automobile rentals on the cars make and the price per unit time for personal services on the providers skill and training the common distinction made between these variants of the same good is that they differ in quality where quality refers to the amounts of the unpriced attributes contained in each unit of the priced attribute thus milk is packaged according to the attribute milk liquid and the quality of milk refers to the ratio of butterfat per unit of liquid 2 this paper considers some of the unique aspects of the economics of supply and demand under this situation where products contain at least two desired attributes only one of which is quantified and measured prior to purchase product quality is here defined by the ratio of the second quality attribute per unit of the measured quantity attribute 3 this simple specification of quality allows a direct link between standard economic models of related products and the economics of variable product quality previous analyses which treat quality simply as a shift parameter in the demand function are shown to obscure the actual subtleties of supply and demand with variable endogenous quality 4 the paper proceeds by first examining the efficient quality and quantity and the competitive equilibrium the market equilibrium under monopoly is then contrasted in the second section the general theme of the

gazprom vs other russian gas producers the evolution of the russian gas sector abstract the non gazprom gas producers ngps doubled their share of the russian domestic gas market between 2000 and 2010 and have continued growing since then for several years especially novatek expanded more recently rosneft has emerged as a key player not least through its purchase of tnk bp this article begins with an overview of the companies in the russian gas sector their resource bases and capacities and subsequently examines whether differences in field development costs and export market access may make it rational for gazprom to continue ceding market share to the ngps with rising costs of gazprom s queue of greenfield developments any delays in gazprom s investment program may be compensated through increased ngp production the article argues that the ngps are ready to fill the gap may be allowed to do so and are already increasing their market share in an increasingly competitive market the stage may now be set for a continued gradual transformation of the russian gas market in which the interests of gazprom and the ngps may be complementary or may be pitted against each other but those of the russian federation are in any case likely to be better fulfilled than in the past

do europeans view their homes as castles homeownership and poverty perception throughout europe the paper investigates the notion that homeownership affects poverty perception this is investigated by utilising a logit model to analyse various characteristics of homeowners in 11 different european nations overall the analysis fails to reject the notion that homeowners throughout europe are less likely to perceive themselves as living in poverty but no evidence is found that homeownership is more valued in nations with high owner occupancy rates however support is found for the notion that homeownership is used as a form of security in countries that experience greater income inequality

training and the new minimum wage using the british household panel survey we estimate the impact of the national minimum wage introduced in april 1999 on the work related training of low wage workers we use two treatment groups those workers who explicitly stated they were affected by the new minimum and those workers whose derived 1998 wages were below the minimum using difference in differences techniques for the period 1998 to 2000 we find no evidence that the introduction of the minimum wage reduced the training of affected workers and some evidence that it increased it

spousal control and intra household decision making an experimental study in the philippines i elicit causal effects of spousal observability and communication on financial choices of married individuals in the philippines when choices are private men put money into their personal accounts when choices are observable men commit money to consumption for their own benefit when required to communicate men put money into their wives account these strong treatment effects on men but not women appear related more to control than to gender men whose wives control household savings respond more strongly to the treat ment and women whose husbands control savings exhibit the same response changes in information and communication interact with underlying control to produce mutable gender specific outcomes

habits and the anomalies in intertemporal choice this paper analyzes a model of discounted utility under habit formation habit formation means that utility in each period is determined by the difference between the received outcome and the customary outcome at that point in time preferences are rational in the sense that the decision maker correctly anticipates the habit formation process and behaves in a dynamically consistent manner i e plans are truly carried out the purpose is to demonstrate that this generalization of the discounted utility model accounts jointly and in a meaningful way for the most striking anomalies with respect to classical discounted utility theory the common difference effect is explained first this effect also called decreasing impatience effect has usually been viewed as evidence against exponential discounting then the frequently observed preference for increasing sequences of outcomes is examined such preference under the traditional discounted utility model would be regarded as a paradoxical case of negative discounting a discussion of the descriptive prescriptive and normative values of the model is included

minimum wage unemployment and growth abstract this paper shows that in an overlapping generations model with endogenous growth minimum wage legislation does not necessarily has negative consequences on economic performance such legislation can have positive effects on growth by inducing more human capital accumulation more precisely a low demand for unskilled labor induced by a minimum wage may create an incentive for workers to accumulate human capital moreover it is possible that a decrease in the minimum wage lowers the welfare of each agent in the economy

the wage and employment dynamics of minimum wage workers this study uses panel data to examine the wage and employment dynamics of minimum wage workers compared with workers earning above the minimum minimum wage workers are much more likely to be new entrants or to exit the labor market changes in industry occupation and access to job training are particularly important to improving the wages of minimum wage workers many minimum wage workers earn less than their potential wage temporarily because of nonwork circumstances that make higher paying jobs less attractive duration of minimum wage employment at one extreme if minimum wage workers were entry level workers who quickly accumulate skills that push their wages above the minimum a minimum wage hike would have a relatively short term effect on any given worker s income on the other extreme if all minimum wage workers find themselves in dead end jobs that provide no opportunities for wage growth a hike in the minimum wage could have long term effects on their incomes there are several studies that provide insights into the wage growth of minimum wage workers using 1984 1985 data from the survey of income and program participation sipp smith and vavrichek 1992 show that over 60 of workers earning the minimum wage in 1984 were earning more than the minimum wage one year later for those with wage gains the typical wage increase was approximately 20 long 1999 finds similar results using the 1992 1993 sipp using national longitudinal survey data from the early 1980s schiller 1994 finds that after entering a minimum wage job only 15 of continuing workers were still earning the minimum wage after three years while most minimum wage workers realize sufficient wage growth to rise above the minimum wage relatively quickly a significant minority does not the existing literature provides some insight into which workers are most likely to be stuck at the minimum a fairly consistent finding is that less educated workers and part time workers are less likely to rise above the minimum however the understanding of the processes at work in determining the extent of wage growth is limited

the brain as a hierarchical organization based on recent neuroscience evidence we model the brain as a dual system organization subject to three conflicts asymmetric information temporal hori zon and incentive salience under the first and second conflicts we show that the uninformed system imposes a positive link between consumption and labor at every period furthermore decreasing impatience endogenously emerges as a consequence of these two conflicts under the first and third conflicts it becomes optimal to set a consumption cap finally we discuss the behavioral implications of these rules for choice bracketing and expense tracking and for consumption over the life cycle jel dil d74 d82 d87 d91

do minimum wages affect non wage job attributes evidence on fringe benefits although many studies have tested neoclassical labor market theory s prediction that employers will react to binding minimum wages by reducing employment levels much less empirical research has explored the possibility that employers also respond to minimum wages by adjusting non wage components of the job such as fringe benefits job safety and access to training using current population survey data for 1979 2000 this study investigates the effect of minimum wage legislation on the provision of employer health insurance and employer pension coverage the authors examine effects of state and federal variation in minimum wages on groups likely to be affected by the minimum wage and compare these effects to estimates found for groups unlikely to be affected whether the analysis uses only state level variation or federal and state variation in minimum wages the results indicate no discernible effect of the minimum wage on fringe benefit generosity for low skill workers

continuous ascending vs pooled multiple unit auctions abstract we examine a seldom studied multiple unit auction format known as a pooled auction we use both theory and economic experiments to compare the pooled auction to the continuous simultaneous ascending auction on the grounds of revenue and efficiency generation the results show that due to very aggressive bidding in the pooled auction it generates substantially more revenue than the ascending auction while achieving equivalent efficiency levels we then attempt to explain the overbidding in the pooled auction and find that neither risk nor loss aversion can explain it we present instead a model with an attentional bias that is related to models of probability underweighting and show that it can explain the data

positive time preference the case for positive time preference is absolutely compelling unless there is an infinite time horizon with the expectation of unending technological advance combined with what we call drastically diminishing marginal utility this finding holds both in the positive and normative senses a corollary is that savings are interest elastic

training and union wages abstract this paper investigates whether unions through imposing wage floors that lead to wage compression increase on the job training our analysis focuses on germany based on a model of unions and firm financed training we derive empirical implications regarding apprenticeship training intensity layoffs wage cuts and wage compression in unionized and nonunionized firms we test these implications using firm panel data matched with administrative employee data we find support for the hypothesis that union recognition via imposing minimum wages and wage compression increases training in apprenticeship programs

do workers prefer increasing wage profiles we present survey data challenging the assumption implicit in analyses of labor supply that all else being equal workers prefer declining over increasing wage profiles we test several explanations for our results including that a there is something special about wages e g their association with productivity as opposed to other types of payments that induces the preference for increasing wages b utility depends not only on absolute levels of consumption but also on changes in consumption over time and c respondents who prefer increasing wage profiles are irrational and would change their behavior if the rationale for preferring declining wages were explained

central wage setting under multiple technological equilibria a mechanism for equilibrium elimination instituting an initial round of centralized wage setting before an ultimate round of decentralized wage bargaining may actually raise employment a general multi equilibrium model is set up with strategic complementarities in the implementation of a new technology through aggregate demand spillovers in this model centralized wage setting to establish an outside option wage which is selectively binding on lo tech firms may achieve the big push to a hi tech general equilibrium with higher employment output wages and profits

implications for minimum wage policies of an s shaped labor supply curve abstract a model of family labor supply provides a rationale for raising minimum wages when the labor supply response is negative at low wages under those circumstances the labor market can be caught in a malthusian poverty trap of excess supply unemployment overextended workdays child labor and falling wages raising minimum wages may therefore help resorb this excess supply and stabilize the labor market setting a virtuous cycle in motion in a two sector context such a policy would increase wages in both the covered and uncovered sectors evidence from a study of costa rica in particular is consistent with those conclusions

gain loss asymmetric stochastic differential utility abstract this study examines a gain loss asymmetric utility in continuous time in which the investor discounts their utility gain by more than the utility loss by employing the theory of stochastic differential utility the model allows an endogenously time varying subjective discount rate in addition the model can express various forms of utility functions including a version of the epstein zin utility under the model even if the state variables do not have any jump in their paths the optimal consumption wealth ratio and portfolio weight can change non smoothly

the prevalence of hyperbolic discounting some european evidence experimental matching data are used from the 2000 bank of italy survey of household income and wealth shiw and the 2000 wave of the center for economic research center savings survey at tilburg university to compare the relative frequencies of hyperbolic and exponential discounters among 3200 italian respondents and 1400 dutch respondents less than a quarter exhibited hyperbolic discounting this finding is both statistically significant and robust with respect to various assumptions regarding utility moreover it holds across a wide variety of economic social and demographic characteristics the youngest poorest most urban and least educated individuals are the most likely to be hyperbolic discounters in addition it is found that hyperbolic discounters accumulate less wealth and are somewhat less likely than exponential discounters to utilize commitment devices to constrain their future choices

the value of nothing asymmetric attention to opportunity costs drives intertemporal decision making this paper proposes a novel account of impatience people pay more attention to the opportunity costs of choosing larger later rewards than to the opportunity costs of choosing smaller sooner ones eight studies show that when the opportunity costs of choosing smaller sooner rewards are subtly highlighted people become more patient whereas when the opportunity costs of choosing larger later rewards are highlighted this has no effect this pattern is robust to variations in the choice task to the participant population and to whether the choices are incentivized or hypothetical we argue that people are naturally aware of the opportunity costs of delayed rewards but pay less attention to those associated with smaller sooner ones we conclude by discussing implications for theory and policy data as supplemental material are available at https doi org 10 1287 mnsc 2016 2547 this paper was accepted by yuval rottenstreich judgment and decision making

sources of bias in retrospective decision making experimental evidence on voters limitations in controlling incumbents are citizens competent to assess the performance of incumbent politicians observational studies cast doubt on voter competence by documenting several biases in retrospective assessments of performance however these studies are open to alternative interpretations because of the complexity of the real world in this article we show that these biases in retrospective evaluations occur even in the simplified setting of experimental games in three experiments our participants 1 overweighted recent relative to overall incumbent performance when made aware of an election closer rather than more distant from that event 2 allowed an unrelated lottery that affected their welfare to influence their choices and 3 were influenced by rhetoric to give more weight to recent rather than overall incumbent performance these biases were apparent even though we informed and incentivized respondents to weight all performance equally our findings point to key limitations in voters ability to use a retrospective decision rule

high bids and broke winners abstract this paper analyzes auctions where budget constrained bidders have options to declare bankruptcy it predicts a bidding equilibrium that changes discontinuously in a borrowing rate available to bidders when the borrowing rate is above a threshold high budget bidders win and the likelihood of bankruptcy is low when the borrowing rate is below the threshold the winner is the most budget constrained bidder and is most likely to declare bankruptcy this result explains the high bids and broke winners anomaly in the c block fcc spectrum auction based on its equilibrium analysis the paper proves that a seller can profit from offering to finance the highest bidder at a below market interest rate even with default risk journal of economic literature classification numbers d44 d45 d82 g33 l96

on the benefits from rigid labour markets norms market failures and social insurance the common view that far reaching labour market deregulation is the only remedy for high european unemployment is too simplistic first the evidence suggests that deeply rooted social customs are

minimum wage effects in the longer run exposure to minimum wages at young ages could lead to adverse longer run effects via decreased labor market experience and tenure and diminished education and training while beneficial longer run effects could arise if minimum wages increase skill acquisition evidence suggests that as individuals reach their late 20s they earn less the longer they were exposed to a higher minimum wage at younger ages and the adverse longer run effects are stronger for blacks if there are such longer run effects of minimum wages they are likely more significant than the contemporaneous effects on youths that are the focus of research and policy debate