estimating residential demand for electricity in greece abstract this paper examines the residential demand for electricity in greece the issues of structural stability price and income sensitivity of both long and short run residential demand for electricity in greece were examined employing monthly data over the period 1986 1999 the long run residential demand for electricity is estimated taking into account changes in weather conditions weighted by the size of the population employing multivariate framework analysis a long run residential demand function for electricity sensitive to real income price level and weather conditions is found to exist and the importance of short run deviations is presented using vector error correction model vecm estimation the empirical evidence suggests the presence of a stable residential demand for electricity in greece both in the long and short run periods and the policy implications of such a relationship are presented

a theory of corporate financial decisions with liquidity and solvency concerns this paper studies the impact of both liquidity and solvency concerns on corporate finance i present a tractable model of a firm that optimally chooses capital structure cash holdings dividends and default while facing cash flows with long term uncertainty and short term liquidity shocks the model explains how changes in solvency affect liquidity and also how liquidity concerns affect solvency via capital structure choice these interactions result in a dynamic cash policy in which cash reserves increase in profitability and are positively correlated with cash flows the optimal dividend distributions implied by the model are smoothed relative to cash flows i also find that liquidity concerns lead to a decrease of dispersion of credit spreads

improving rural electricity system planning an agent based model for stakeholder engagement and decision making abstract energy planners in regions with low rates of electrification face complex and high risk challenges in selecting appropriate generating technologies and grid centralization to better inform such processes we present an agent based model abm that facilitates engagement with stakeholders this approach evaluates long term plans using the cost of delivered electricity resource mix jobs and economic stimulus created within communities and decentralized generation mix of the system with results provided in a spatially resolved format this approach complements existing electricity planning methods e g integrated resource planning by offering novel evaluation criteria based on typical stakeholder preferences we demonstrate the utility of this approach with a case study based on a blank slate scenario which begins without generation or transmission infrastructure for the long term rural renewable energy plans of liberia west africa we consider five electrification strategies prioritizing larger populations deploying large resources creating jobs providing economic stimulus and step wise cost minimization through the case study we demonstrate how this approach can be used to engage stakeholders supplement more established energy planning tools and illustrate the effects of stakeholder decisions and preferences on the performance of the system

how debt markets have malfunctioned in the crisis the financial crisis that began in 2007 is especially a crisis in debt markets a full understanding of what happened in the financial crisis requires investigation into the plumbing of debt markets during a financial crisis when funds often cannot be raised easily or quickly the fundamental values for certain assets can become separated for a time from market prices with consequences that can echo into the real economy this article will explain in concrete ways how debt markets can malfunction with deleterious consequences for the real economy after a quick overview of debt markets i discuss three areas that are crucial in all debt markets decisions risk capital and risk aversion repo financing and haircuts and counterparty risk in each of these areas feedback effects can arise so that less liquidity and a higher cost for finance can reinforce each other in a contagious spiral i will document the remarkable rise in the premium that investors placed on liquidity during the crisis next i will show how these issues caused debt markets to break down indeed fundamental values and market values seemed to diverge across several markets and products that were far removed from the toxic subprime mortgage assets at the root of the crisis finally i will discuss briefly four steps that the federal reserve took to ease the crisis and how each was geared to a specific systemic fault that arose during the crisis

econometric modeling of electricity consumption in post war lebanon this paper applies econometric models to investigate determinants of electrical energy consumption in post war lebanon the impact of the gross domestic product gdp proxied by total imports ti and degree days dd on electricity consumption is investigated over different time spans covering the period from 1993 to 1997 the time spans are chosen according to the rationing level of electricity supply for the 1993 1994 time span ti is found to be a significant determinant of energy consumption whereas dd has a negative correlation this inconsistency might be attributed to an extensive rationing policy followed during this period for the 1995 1997 time span which includes reduced rationing period 1995 all electrical energy consumption determinants are found to be significant at the 5 significance level analysis results for the rationing free 1996 1997 time span also show the significance of ti and dd at the 5 level furthermore cointegration analysis for the 1995 1997 and 1996 1997 subsets reveals the existence of a long run relationship between all variables in addition error correction models for both subsets are developed to predict short run dynamics finally statistical performance measures such as mean square error mean average deviation and mean average percentage error are presented for all models

demand for gasoline in kuwait an empirical analysis using cointegration techniques abstract this paper estimates the demand for gasoline in kuwait for the period 1970 1989 using a cointegration and error correction model ecm it is found that gasoline demand is inelastic with respect to price in the short and long run and while it is elastic in the long run gasoline demand is inelastic with respect to income in the short run this suggests that gasoline demand response to income changes is higher in the long run than in the short run furthermore gasoline consumption adjusts towards its long run level with about 52 of the adjustment occurring in the first year

the demand for residential electricity in south africa abstract this paper examines the residential demand for electricity in south africa as a function of real gross domestic product per capita and the price of electricity during the period 1978 2005 we make use of the bounds testing approach to cointegration within an autoregressive distributed framework suggested by pesaran et al 2001 bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships journal of applied econometrics 16 3 289 326 following the literature we use a linear double logarithmic form using income and price as independent variables in the empirical analysis in the long run we find that income is the main determinant of electricity demand while electricity price is insignificant

application of the translog model of energy substitution to developing countries the case of korea abstract while studies exist on the applications of the translog energy model in developed countries little is known about its application in developing countries to this end this paper investigates the long run sensitivities of energy demand to price changes and the degree of interfactor and interfuel substitution in the korean industrial sector we also uniquely disaggregate the industrial sector into nine manufacturing and three non manufacturing subsectors based on time series data obtained from the korea institute of energy and resources an energy demand model has been specified and estimated according to the translog approach the conclusions provide future directions for energy demand management policies in korea

why money talks and wealth whispers monetary uncertainty and mystique this paper analyzes the effect of monetary uncertainty on the inflationary bias and the variance of output and inflation monetary policy uncertainty is modeled as a shock to the central banker s preference for inflation stabilization relative to output stabilization that cannot be observed by the public we find that the mean and variance of inflation increase with the variance of this preference shock however unlike other studies we find that monetary uncertainty may very well have a positive effect on output stabilization and therefore also on society s welfare

a dynamic econometric model of thailand manufacturing energy demand the purpose of this article is to employ the dynamic translog framework to model inter factor and inter fuel energy demand for the thai manufacturing sector the denny et al 1981 and lynk 1989 framework which proposes a dynamic adjustment for capital stock is employed to motivate the estimated of factor demand and fuel share equations three factors energy labour and capital and five fuel types fuel oil diesel oil liquified petroleum gas lpg electricity and coal and lignite are examined regression diagnostics support the empirical specification numerous factor and fuel substitution possibilities are identified with some policy implications described

greenhouse gas models and abatement costs for developing nations a critical assessment numerous ghg policy studies are reported for developing countries most use demand driven bottom up models reported abatement costs vary significantly across countries for identical options this can cause policy conflicts such as for gef financing schemes top down macroeconomic studies for developing countries are scant their model structure assumes dynamics akin to developed market economies transitional dynamics of developing countries such as underdeveloped markets and informal activities are inadequately modelled policy analysis is thus restricted to market oriented alternatives while more relevant bifurcation scenarios along alternate development patterns are ignored alterations in model structure and policy analysis are proposed to represent the realities of developing nations

credit market frictions and capital structure dynamics we study the implications of credit market frictions for the dynamics of corporate capital structure and the risk of default of corporations to do so we develop a dynamic capital structure model in which firms face uncertainty regarding their ability to raise funds in credit markets and have to search for investors when seeking to adjust their capital structure we provide a general analysis of shareholders dynamic financing and default decisions show when markov perfect equilibria in financing and default barrier strategies exist and when uniqueness can be achieved we then use the model to generate a number of novel testable implications relating credit market frictions to target leverage the pace and size of capital structure changes creditor turnover and the likelihood of default c 2014 elsevier inc all rights reserved

the structure of residential energy demand in greece abstract this paper attempts to shed light on the determinants of residential energy demand in greece and to compare it with some other oecd countries from the estimates of the short run and long run elasticities of energy demand for the period 1965 1999 we find that residential energy demand appears to be price inelastic also we do not find evidence of a structural change probably because of the low efficiency of the energy sector we find however that the magnitude of the income elasticity varies substantially between greece and other oecd countries

the time varying nairu and its implications for economic policy the nairu the unemployment rate consistent with a constant rate of inflation is estimated in this paper as a parameter allowed to vary over time value is determined in an econometric model where the inflation rate depends on its past values demand and supply shocks the nairu estimated for the gdp deflator varies over the past forty years within 5 4 to 6 5 percent its estimated value for the most recent quarter 1996 q2 is 5 6 percent the nairu has declined in recent years in response to global competition immigration other factors weakening labor s bargaining position and the rapidly declining prices of computers and other electronics

when and how much to talk credibility and flexibility in monetary policy with private information abstract this paper analyzes the role of noisy or imprecise announcements in mitigating the basic credibility problem in monetary policy based on a model where the monetary authority s private information gives rise to an unavoidable trade off between flexibility and credibility the analysis finds that noisy announcements can serve as a meaningful form of communication to make that trade off more favorable however such talk is not cheap the analysis predicts that those central banks who can speak more precisely are those who are less likely to speak at all

expected social welfare under a convex phillips curve and asymmetric policy preferences this paper evaluates the expected social welfare implications of monetary policy with a convex phillips curve under a symmetric loss function and an asymmetric loss function corresponding to the opportunistic approach to disinflation the convex asymmetric specification yields an inaction range of inflation shocks for which the optimal monetary policy setting does not adjust for parameter estimates relevant to the united states numerical simulations show that the symmetric loss function dominates the asymmetric alternative in expected social welfare terms asymmetric policy preferences enhance social welfare only under extreme parameter values this result is robust to sensitivity analysis with respect to inflation variability and the degrees of phillips curve convexity and preference asymmetry thereby supporting arguments for a tough anti inflationary stance by the federal reserve regardless of the true social loss function

modelling energy systems for developing countries abstract developing countries energy use is rapidly increasing which affects global climate change and global and regional energy settings energy models are helpful for exploring the future of developing and industrialised countries however energy systems of developing countries differ from those of industrialised countries which has consequences for energy modelling new requirements need to be met by present day energy models to adequately explore the future of developing countries energy systems this paper aims to assess if the main characteristics of developing countries are adequately incorporated in present day energy models we first discuss these main characteristics focusing particularly on developing asia and then present a model comparison of 12 selected energy models to test their suitability for developing countries we conclude that many models are biased towards industrialised countries neglecting main characteristics of developing countries e g the informal economy supply shortages poor performance of the power sector structural economic change electrification traditional bio fuels urban rural divide to more adequately address the energy systems of developing countries energy models have to be adjusted and new models have to be built we therefore indicate how to improve energy models for increasing their suitability for developing countries and give advice on modelling techniques and data requirements

residential electricity demand dynamics in turkey abstract this article provides fresh empirical evidences for the income and price elasticies of the residential energy demand both in the short run and long run for turkey over the period 1968 2005 using the bounds testing procedure to cointegration the computed elasticities of income and price are consistent with the previous studies and as expected the long run elasticities are greater than the short run elasticities an augmented form of granger causality analysis is implemented among residential electricity income price and urbanization in the long run causality runs interactively through the error correction term from income price and urbanization to residential energy but the short run causality tests are inconclusive the parameter stability of the short run as well as long run coefficients in the residential energy demand function are tested the results of these tests display a stable pattern

gasoline demand revisited an international meta analysis of elasticities meta analysis is used to determine if there are factors that systematically affect price and income elasticity estimates in studies of gasoline demand four econometric models are estimated using long run and short run price and income elasticity estimates from previous studies as the dependent variables explanatory variables include functional form lag structure time span national setting estimation technique and other features of the model structure elasticity estimates are found to be sensitive to the inclusion or exclusion of some measure of vehicle ownership static models appear to overestimate short run elasticities underestimate long run price elasticities but pick up the full long run income responsiveness there is variation in the elasticity of demand across countries especially in the short run and gasoline demand appears to be getting more price elastic and less income elastic over time

the demand for electricity in the gcc countries abstract cointegration techniques are used to study the effects of economic variables on electricity demand in the gcc countries a dynamic model is estimated using aggregate data for the six states spanning the period 1970 97 statistical investigations confirm the existence of unit root in all time series employed in the study which called for the use of cointegration and error correction methodologies empirical results indicate that both income and price have an impact on electricity consumption and income and price policies could be effectively facilitated in electricity demand management

the demand for energy in the large scale manufacturing sector of pakistan abstract the extent of interfuel substitution as well as substitution between energy and non energy inputs in the large scale manufacturing sector of pakistan has been examined the model has been estimated in two stages in the first stage input demand for various energy components is estimated and hence an aggregate divisia index is constructed in the second stage this index is used as an instrument to estimate aggregate input demand for capital labour and energy along with their price and substitution elasticities it seems that there is little interfuel substitution the results also show that energy and labour are substitutes while energy and capital are complement

empirical evidence of risk shifting in financially distressed firms this paper provides evidence of risk shifting behavior in the investment decisions of financially distressed firms using a real options framework i show that shareholders risk shifting incentives can reverse the expected negative relation between volatility and investment i test two hypotheses that are consistent with risk shifting behavior i volatility has a positive effect on distressed firms investment ii investments of distressed firms generate less value during times of high uncertainty empirical evidence using 40 years of data supports both hypotheses i further evaluate the effect of various firm characteristics on risk shifting and estimate the costs of the investment distortion

modelling and forecasting the demand for coal in china in contrast with developed countries coal is the major energy source of china in view of its importance this paper attempts to analyse and forecast the country s demand for coal as it moves towards the next century to do this we have applied three different methods to contrast their performances in fitting the chinese data engle granger s error correction model hendry s error correction model and hendry s general to specific approach it is found that the engle granger approach outperforms the other two in terms of having the smallest ex post forecast errors using the engle granger approach the model predicts that the chinese economy will experience a 5 shortage in the year 2000

optimal security design and dynamic capital structure in a continuous time agency model we derive the optimal dynamic contract in a continuous time principal agent setting and implement it with a capital structure credit line long term debt and equity over which the agent controls the payout policy while the project s volatility and liquidation cost have little impact on the firm s total debt capacity they increase the use of credit versus debt leverage is nonstationary and declines with past profitability the firm may hold a compensating cash balance while borrowing at a higher rate through the credit line surprisingly the usual conflicts between debt and equity asset substitution strategic default need not arise in this paper we consider a dynamic contracting environment in which a riskneutral agent or entrepreneur with limited resources manages an investment activity while the investment is profitable it is also risky and in the short run it can generate arbitrarily large operating losses the agent will need outside financial support to cover such losses and continue the project the difficulty is that while the probability distribution of the cash flows is publicly known the agent may distort these cash flows by taking a hidden action that leads to a private benefit specifically the agent may i conceal and divert cash flows for his own consumption and or ii stop providing costly effort which would reduce the mean of the cash flows therefore from the perspective of the principal or investors that fund the project there is the concern that a low cash flow realization may be a result of the agent s actions rather than the project s fundamentals to provide the agent with appropriate incentives investors control the agent s wage and may also withdraw their financial support for the project and force its early termination we seek to characterize an optimal contract in this framework and relate it to the firm s choice of capital structure we develop a method to solve for the optimal contract given the incentive constraints in a continuous time setting and study the properties of the credit line debt and equity that implement the contract as in the discrete time model of demarzo and fishman 2003 the continuous time setting offers several peter m demarzo is from stanford university and yuliy sannikov is from u c berkeley we

modelling energy demand of developing countries are the specific features adequately captured abstract this paper critically reviews existing energy demand forecasting methodologies highlighting the methodological diversities and developments over the past four decades in order to investigate whether the existing energy demand models are appropriate for capturing the specific features of developing countries the study finds that two types of approaches econometric and end use accounting are commonly used in the existing energy demand models although energy demand models have greatly evolved since the early seventies key issues such as the poor rich and urban rural divides traditional energy resources and differentiation between commercial and non commercial energy commodities are often poorly reflected in these models while the end use energy accounting models with detailed sectoral representations produce more realistic projections as compared to the econometric models they still suffer from huge data deficiencies especially in developing countries development and maintenance of more detailed energy databases further development of models to better reflect developing country context and institutionalizing the modelling capacity in developing countries are the key requirements for energy demand modelling to deliver richer and more reliable input to policy formulation in developing countries

distinguished lecture on economics in government what central bankers could learn from academics and vice versa academic writing about monetary policy has been useful to practical central bankers but more of certain aspects of the economists way of thinking could profitably be imported on the other hand academics could improve their analysis and make it more useful to policymakers if they would pay more attention to certain real world aspects of monetary policy the author draws on his experience at the federal reserve board to point out a number of specific lessons for each side

modelling oecd industrial energy demand asymmetric price responses and energy saving technical change abstract the industrial sector embodies a multifaceted production process consequently modelling the derived demand for energy is a complex issue made all the more difficult by the need to capture the effect of technical progress of the capital stock this paper is an exercise in econometric modelling of industrial energy demand using panel data for 15 oecd countries over the period 1962 2003 exploring the issue of energy saving technical change and asymmetric price responses although difficult to determine precisely it is tentatively concluded that the preferred specification for oecd industrial energy demand incorporates asymmetric price responses but not exogenous energy saving technical change

an empirical analysis of gasoline demand in denmark using cointegration techniques abstract danish time series data covering the period 1948 1991 are used in order to estimate short run and long run elasticities in gasoline demand a cointegration test for a stable long run relationship between the variables in the model proves to be positive showing a smaller value of the long run price elasticity than often quoted in empirical studies of gasoline demand finally an error correction model is estimated

the u s phillips curve the case for asymmetry abstract recent statistical rejections of convexity in the phillips curve have been uninformative because researchers have employed measures of business cycle gaps that are inconsistent with the implications of convexity the paper shows that identifying convexity in the phillips curve will become even more difficult if policymakers are successful in avoiding large boom and bust cycles to the extent that convexity in the phillips curve is used as a rationale for stabilization policy our findings present an interesting conundrum because successful policymakers will further weaken the empirical evidence on which such policies are based

short and long run elasticities of gasoline demand in india an empirical analysis using cointegration techniques abstract in developing countries like india consumption of petroleum products has implications on its balance of payments economic growth and fiscal deficit gasoline is one of the prime petroleum products in this paper the relationship between gasoline demand national income and price of gasoline is empirically examined using cointegration and error correction techniques the time frame of the analysis is from 1972 1973 to 1993 1994 it has been found that gasoline demand is likely to increase significantly for a given increase in the gross domestic product the increase will be larger in the long run 2 682 than in the short run 1 178 gasoline demand is relatively inelastic to price changes both in the long and short terms the error correction model has shown that gasoline demand adjusts to their respective long run equilibrium at a relatively slow rate with about 28 of adjustment taking place in the first year

power sector renewable energy integration for expanding access to electricity in sub saharan africa abstract a looming energy supply crisis in sub saharan africa ssa raises concerns about a long lasting energy shortage this energy crisis is expected to persist for an indefinite period in the region unless immediate actions are taken to reverse the trend although global aspiration to reduce greenhouse gas ghg emissions into the atmosphere is high such desire is low in ssa regional stakeholders are more worried about increasing power generation capacity to enhance better access to different sorts of development to progress in line with advanced patterns of energy development globally to increase the availability of electrical energy and to sustain emissions reductions exploitation of local renewable energy re resources is inevitable consequently this paper presents a comprehensive review of re integration for expanding access to electricity in ssa the review covers the sustainability of re resources in ssa the regional status of re applications and the necessity of re power generation integration planning from a management aspect finally the benefits of re integration into the power sector of ssa and some conceptual challenges affecting its integration in the region are highlighted

residential energy use abstract the energy information administration recently published data they collected from the national interim energy consumption survey niecs niecs includes detailed information on 4081 individual households demographic characteristics energy related features of the structure heating equipment and appliances therein recent conservation actions taken by the household and fuel consumption and costs for the april 1978 march 1979 one year period this data set provides a new and valuable resource for analysis we summarized and analysed the niecs data on household energy consumption total energy use electricity use and use of the primary space heating fuel the regression equations constructed explain roughly half the variation in energy use among households these equations contain 10 or fewer independent variables the most important of which are fuel price year house was built floor area and heating degree days

capacity constraints idiosyncratic demand uncertainty and the dynamics of inflation abstract this paper contributes to the theoretical modeling of inflation dynamics by analyzing the interplay between production inflexibilities and price setting behavior we formalize the capacity constraint hypothesis within the context of a new keynesian framework a key result shows how the dynamics of inflation depend on the distribution of utilization rates across firms in the economy the measure of resource utilization explicitly derived here allows the study of interesting dynamics absent in current formulations of the phillips curve

the role of demandable debt in structuring optimal banking arrangements demandable debt finance by banks warrants explanation because it entails costs of bank suspension liquidation and idle reserve holdings an explanation is developed in which demandable debt provides incentive compatible intermediation where the banker has comparative advantage in allocating investment funds but may act against the interests of uninformed depositors demandable debt attracts funds by giving depositors an option to force liquidation its usefulness in transacting follows from information sharing between monitors and nonmonitors copyright 1991 by american economic association

estimates of energy and non energy elasticities in selected asian manufacturing sectors policy implications abstract this paper presents the results of a study of the demand elasticities for energy and non energy inputs in the food processing and textile industries in bangladesh the philippines and thailand estimates of substitution elasticities in production were derived by fitting data to a translog cost function for the period 1970 1980 for bangladesh 1970 1978 for the philippines and 1974 1977 for thailand the results varied according to the industries studied and across countries they were compared with those of several developing and industrialized countries and substitutability among inputs was found to be greater in the manufacturing sector of the developing countries studies than in those of industrialized countries the generally high elasticities between labour and energy have implications for relative input pricing and use in developing countries

a pooled dynamic analysis of interfuel substitution in industrial energy demand by the g 7 countries a dynamic version of considine s 1990 linear logit model is used to obtain theoretically consistent estimates of long run price elasticities from pooled intercountry data on industrial energy consumption this model also provides a rare direct estimate of the important rate of dynamic adjustment revealing a median lag of ten years the long run demands for oil and coal are the most elastic and the strongest channels for interfuel substitution are between oil and natural gas with no significant evidence of complementarity between fuels

elasticities of electricity demand in india abstract the paper examines econometric relationship between electricity consumption and variables like income price of electricity and diesel used in for captive power generation to meet the shortages and reliability of power supply from utilities in five major consumer categories in india these categories are residential commercial agriculture small and medium industries and large industries income and price elasticities of electricity consumption are estimated at the national level for these consumers by pooling data across 19 states spread over 9 years 1985 86 1993 94 the results show that electricity consumption in commercial and large industrial sectors are income elastic 1 while residential agricultural and small and medium industries are income inelastic

short term debt and incentives for risk taking abstract we challenge the view that short term debt curbs moral hazard and demonstrate that in a world with financing frictions and fair debt pricing short term debt generates incentives for risk taking to do so we develop a model in which firms are financed with equity and short term debt and cannot freely optimize their default decision because of financing frictions we show that when firms are close to distress the dynamic interaction of operating and rollover losses fuels default risk in such instances shareholders find it optimal to increase asset risk to improve interim debt repricing and prevent inefficient liquidation these risk taking incentives do not arise when debt maturity is sufficiently long

demand for commercial energy in the state of kerala india an econometric analysis with medium range projections abstract rapid growth in the demand for commercial energy in kerala a state in india posed serious development constraints in the recent past the crucial issue of managing this demand will be of great importance in formulating the future development policy of the state this study analyses the requirement of three major forms of commercial energy in the state of kerala viz electricity petroleum products and coal sectorwise productwise econometric demand models are generated using regression method the primary regression models consisting of statistically significant key energy indicators have been fitted with ordinary least squares ols estimation models wherever required have been subsequently refined in the second stage computations by employing cochrane orcutt transformation algorithm to remove the effects of auto correlation the accuracy of the models have been checked using standard statistical techniques and validated against the past data by testing for expost forecast accuracy employing the models medium range projections of demand of the state for commercial energy till the year 2020 have been made the policy implications and related key issues have been addressed the study identifies the urgent need for special attention in evolving effective energy policies to alleviate an energy famine in the near future

use of multicriteria decision analysis methods for energy planning problems most decision making requires the consideration of several conflicting objectives the term multiple criteria decision analysis mcda describes various methods developed for aiding decision makers in reaching better decisions energy planning problems are complex problems with multiple decision makers and multiple criteria therefore these problems are quite suited to the use of mcda a multitude of mcda methods exists these methods can be divided in three main groups value measurement models goal aspiration and reference level models and outranking models methods from all of these groups have been applied to energy planning problems particularly in the evaluation of alternative electricity supply strategies each of the methods has its advantages and drawbacks however we cannot conclude that one method generally is better suited than the others for energy planning problems a good alternative might be to apply more than one method either in combination to make use of the strengths of both methods or in parallel to get a broader decision basis for the decision maker until now studies of mcda in energy planning have most often considered energy networks with only one energy carrier more advanced energy systems with multiple energy carriers have been neglected even though this field ought to be suitable for use of mcda due to its high complexity many decision makers and many conflicting criteria

analysing gasoline demand elasticities a survey this paper is a survey of studies on gasoline demand although there are very many dxerent studies in this eld which sometimes appear to arrive at contradictory results we find that with proper stratification of studies by model and data type much of the contict turns to consensus in this survey we classtfy studies by data type and by ten d erent categories of model and with the exception of estimates on seasonal data which tend to be unstable and of certain inappropriate model formulations we find a fair degree of agreement concerning average short run and even long run income and price elasticities

dynamic debt runs we develop a dynamic model of debt runs on a rm which invests in an illiquid asset by rolling over staggered short term debt contracts i e dierent contracts mature at dierent times we derive a unique threshold equilibrium in which creditors coordinate their asynchronous rollover decisions based on the rm s publicly observable and time varying fundamental the coordination problem ampli es the creditors concerns about the rm s future rollover risk created by its time varying fundamental and causes each maturing creditor to run ahead of others even when the current fundamental is substantially higher than its liability our model provides a set of implications on the roles played by volatility illiquidity and debt maturity in driving debt runs as well as on rms capital adequacy standards and credit risk

the hazards of debt rollover freezes incentives and bailouts we investigate the trade o between incentive provision an di ne ient rollover freezes for a firm financed with short term debt first debt maturity that is too short term is ine cient even with incentive provision th eo ptimal maturity is an interior solution that avoids excessive rollover risk whil ep roviding su ient incentives for the manager to avoid risk shifting when the firm is in good health second allowing the manager to risk shift during a freeze actually increase sc reditor conf idence debt policy should not prevent the manager from holding what may appear to be otherwise low mean strategies that have option value during a freeze third a limited but not perfectly reliable form of emergency financing during a freeze a bailout may improve the terms of the trade o and increase total ex ante va lue by instilling confidence in the creditor markets our conclusions highlight the endogenous interaction between risk from the asset and liability sides of the balance sheet

accounting for technical progress in aggregate energy demand abstract researchers have not reached a consensus on how to account for technical progress when modeling aggregate energy demand some include a time trend in a dynamic model while others omit the trend in a model that disallows for long run income effects we show that the latter approach can be directly tested as a nested case of the former so that model selection need not be made a priori solely on theoretical grounds using annual data over 1960 1990 we find that long run income effects are not significant however including a time trend improves the model s fit while rendering much more credible long run price elasticities

banking market structure and financial stability evidence from the texas real estate crisis in the 1980s abstract this paper examines the relationship between banking market structure and financial stability using data on thrifts a type of banking institution specializing in residential mortgage lending i test two related hypotheses first competition reduces franchise value second reduced franchise value induces risk taking testing the second hypothesis exploits predictions that when hit by an exogenous shock the slope of risk with respect to franchise value becomes more negative because thrifts adopt bang bang strategies and choose minimal or maximal risk using the texas real estate collapse in the 1980s as a natural experiment i find evidence supporting both hypotheses

future demand of petroleum products in india this paper examines the long run equilibrium relationship between total petroleum products consumption and economic growth in india for the period 1970 1971 to 2001 2002 using cointegration and error correction modeling approach augmented dickey fuller tests reveal that both the series after logarithmic transformation are non stationary and individually integrated of order one the empirical results suggest that the series are cointegrated the long term demand elasticity for petroleum products has been estimated furthermore as a special case similar sort of exercise between the consumption of middle distillates and economic growth in india using annual data for the time span 1974 1975 to 2001 2002 has been carried out which also confirms the existence of cointegration in sample forecasts fitted well against actual numbers finally the paper forecasts total petroleum products and middle distillates demands till 2011 2012 and provide an idea about the investment required in refinery sector in india till 2011 2012

road transport energy demand in australia a cointegration approach abstract a cointegration framework is used to examine the short run and long run characteristics of energy demand in the australian road transport sector a lagged endogenous equation based on a partial adjustment process is proposed and estimated results indicate that energy demand output and real energy prices are integrated of order 1 and cointegrated the long run output and price elasticities of energy demand are estimated to be 0 52 and 0 12 respectively causality tests ervealed a bidirectional causality path between output and energy demand and a unidirectional path from energy consumption to prices no other causality paths between output prices and energy demand are detected the short run output elasticity of energy demand is estimated to be 0 25 based on an error correction model the short run price elasticity is found to be insignificant the inertia parameter is 0 48 corresponding to 95 of the demand adjustment occurring after five periods the results are compared with previous findings and the variations are partially attributed to the structural changes in the road transport sector in the 1980s some of which are discussed

integrated resource planning irp and power sector reform in developing countries abstract the integrated resource planning irp approach is one that considers both supply and demand side options to meet the need for a resource while minimising the costs accruing to the firm and to society this paper focuses on irp as a tool for the power sector in the light of the existing problems and the ongoing reforms in developing countries it looks at the advantages that irp would afford juxtaposing these with the barriers to such a planning process those encountered in the past as well as the possibilities in view of structural changes it then discusses the policies that would enable the irp approach to be usefully employed to mitigate the problems of the power sector although irp has receded in importance in some areas of the world there are perceptible benefits for developing countries these could adopt such planning methods through the agents and the instruments suggested

production inflexibilities and the cost channel of monetary policy this article shows how the existence of production inflexibilities in the form of capacity utilization constraints conditions the magnitude of the response of macroeconomic variables to a money supply stimulus capacity is modeled under explicit microfoundations where the existence of idiosyncratic demand uncertainty generates variable utilization rates across firms in this context money has real effects due to non fisherian effects stemming from limitations in households access to the financial market firms capacity constraints generate a convex aggregate supply curve which is a feature of the economy that has important implications for the conduct of monetary policy

input substitution in thailand s manufacturing sector implications for energy policy abstract input demand and substitution elasticities for five manufacturing sector industries in thailand are estimated using a three factor capital labour and energy translog cost function covering the first oil shock period 1974 1977 in all cases the demand is elastic for energy close to unity for labour and inelastic for capital capital and energy are always substitutes as are capital and labour the labour intensive and comparative advantage based industries showed greater responsiveness to energy price changes relative to the capital intensive and protected industries in the sense that the former two can substitute capital and labour for energy whereas the latter two can substitute only capital

energy consumption in china past trends and future directions abstract in 2003 china s energy consumption amounted to 1678 million tonnes coal equivalent mtce making china the world s second largest consumer behind only the united states china is now also one of the largest oil importers in the world with an economy that is expected to maintain a rate of growth of 7 8 for decades china s role in the world energy market becomes increasingly influential this makes it important to predict china s future demand for energy the objective of this paper is to apply the bayesian vector autoregressive methodology to forecast china s energy consumption and to discuss potential implications the results of this paper suggest that total energy consumption should increase to 2173 mtce in 2010 an annual growth rate of 3 8 which is slightly slower than the average rate in the past decade the slower growth reflects expected slower economic growth and a decline in energy consumption due to structural changes in the chinese economy

residential electricity demand in taiwan this paper examines the residential demand for electricity in taiwan as a function of household disposable income population growth the price of electricity and the degree of urbanization short and long term effects are separated through the use of an error correction model in the long run the income elasticity is unit elastic the own price effect is negative and inelastic in an error correction framework the short run income and price effects are small and less than the long run effects cooling degree day effects have a positive impact on short run consumption we have used a proxy variable urbanization to capture economic development characteristics and changes in electricity using capital stocks not explained by income the variable provides significant explanatory power to the model both in the short and long run we interpret it as controlling for economic development factors not captured by the pure income effect and we think it holds promise for explaining residential electricity consumption in other developing countries

liquidity innovation and endogenous growth abstract we build a model of endogenous innovation driven growth in which innovative firms have costly access to outside financing and hoard cash reserves to maintain financial flexibility we show that financing frictions slow down schumpeterian creative destruction by discouraging entry as a result financing frictions importantly affect the composition of growth by reducing the contribution of entrants but spurring the contribution of incumbents we investigate the net impact of these countervailing effects on the equilibrium growth rate and welfare

corporate policies with permanent and transitory shocks we model the financing cash holdings and hedging policies of a firm facing financing frictions and subject to permanent and transitory cash flow shocks the permanent and transitory shocks generate distinct sometimes opposite effects on corporate policies we use the model to develop a rich set of empirical predictions in our model correlated permanent and transitory shocks imply less risk lower cash savings and a drop in the value of credit lines the composition of cash flow shocks affects the cash flow sensitivity of cash which can be positive or negative optimal hedging of permanent and transitory shocks may involve opposite positions

dynamic translog and linear logit models a factor demand analysis of interfuel substitution in us industrial energy demand abstract we compare and contrast two popular dynamic flexible functional forms for cost functions the translog and the logit j bus econ stat 8 1990 347 353 using data on us industrial energy demand from 1960 to 1992 which has been analysed by previous studies energy econ 11 1989 89 94 appl econ 21 1989 931 945 j bus econ stat 13 1995 459 465 we show the crucial role played by different dynamic formulations of the translog in this analysis of factor demands with respect to rates of dynamic adjustment and substitution possibilities we conclude that the poor performance of the dynamic translog relative to the dynamic logit cannot be explained solely by dynamic model mis specification or the inclusion of price unresponsive non energy fuel use data our most robust empirical result is that coal and oil are substitutes

least cost network evaluation of centralized and decentralized contributions to global electrification abstract the choice between centralized and decentralized electricity generation is examined for 150 countries as a function of population distribution electricity consumption transmission cost and the cost difference between decentralized and centralized electricity generation a network algorithm is developed to find the shortest centralized transmission network that spans a given fraction of the population in a country the least cost combination of centralized and decentralized electricity that serves the country is determined case studies of botswana uganda and bangladesh illustrate situations that are more and less suited for decentralized electrification specific maps for centralized and decentralized generation are presented to show how the least cost option varies with the relative costs of centralized and decentralized generation and transmission cost centralized and decentralized fractions are calculated for 150 countries for most of the world s population centralized electricity is the least cost option for a number of countries particularly in africa substantial populations and regions may be most cost effectively served by decentralized electricity

rollover risk as market discipline a two sided inefficiency abstract why does the market discipline that financial intermediaries face seem too weak during booms and too strong during crises this paper shows in a general equilibrium setting that rollover risk as a disciplining device is effective only if all intermediaries face purely idiosyncratic risk however if assets are correlated a two sided inefficiency arises good aggregate states have intermediaries taking excessive risks while bad aggregate states suffer from costly fire sales the driving force behind this inefficiency is an amplifying feedback loop between asset values and market discipline in equilibrium financial intermediaries inefficiently amplify both positive and negative aggregate shocks

the demand for electricity in israel quarterly data for israel are used to compare and contrast three dynamic econometric methodologies for estimating the demand for electricity by households and industrial companies these are the dynamic regression model and two approaches to cointegration ols and maximum likelihood since we find evidence of seasonal unit roots in the data we also test for seasonal cointegration we find that the scale elasticities are similar in all three approaches but the ols price elasticities are considerably lower moreover ols suggests non cointegration the paper concludes by stochastically simulating the drms to calculate upside risk in electricity demand

the residential demand for electricity in australia an application of the bounds testing approach to cointegration this paper reports estimates of the long and short run elasticities of residential demand for electricity in australia using the bounds testing procedure to cointegration within an autoregressive distributive lag framework in the long run we find that income and own price are the most important determinants of residential electricity demand while temperature is significant some of the time and gas prices are insignificant our estimates of long run income elasticity and price elasticity of demand are consistent with previous studies although they are towards the lower end of existing estimates as expected the short run elasticities are much smaller than the long run elasticities and the coefficients on the error correction coefficients are small consistent with the fact that in the short run energy appliances are fixed