nonparametric measures of scale and technical change for competitive firms under uncertainty measures of scale elasticity and rate of technical change can be obtained nonparametrically in the sandmo model of competitive firms with nonlinear risk preference responding to output price risk information on risk attitudes is not needed for measurement of scale elasticity because it is observable as the ratio of average to marginal cost as in certainty models the cross section of panel data sets can be used to develop a nonparametric marginal cost measure which permits identification of scale elasticity the technical change measure then follows from the scale measure and the time series portion of the panel data set

long run estimates of technological change and scale economies in a dynamic framework australian permanent building societies 1974 1990 abstract this paper formulates and estimates a dynamic model to investigate the characteristics of the cost function of australian permanent building societies while the results suggest that the societies adjust costs quickly to long run levels the modelling of cost dynamics is shown to have a significant influence on estimates of scale economies and on the identification of the timing of shifts in the cost frontier and changes in the growth of total factor productivity

the political economy of taking and just compensation by creating an implicit right to judicial review and lowering the transaction costs a property owner must incur to challenge a taking the just compensation restriction on eminent domain limits the tendency of political decision makers to avoid the subjective costs their actions inflict on property owners and moves the level of taking closer to the social optimum its impact however is partially to completely erased by the risk aversion of the property owner and the fiscal illusion of the political decision maker unless there are additional constraints in the fiscal constitution

optimal hedge ratio under a subjective re weighting of the original measure abstractin this article we study a risk minimizing hedge ratio with futures contracts where the risk of the hedged portfolio is measured through a spectral risk measure srm thus incorporating the degree of agent s risk aversion we empirically estimate the optimal hedge ratio ohr using a long time series of uk and us equity indices the eurusd and eurgbp exchange rates and four liquid commodities brent crude oil corn gold and copper to represent different asset classes comparing the results with common ohrs such as the minimum variance and the minimum expected shortfall we find that the agent s risk aversion has a material impact and should not be ignored in risk management

the effects of volatility in the terms of trade on output growth new evidence abstract this paper examines the empirical evidence for the hypothesis that there is a negative relationship between terms of trade volatility and output growth it finds a statistically significant link between income terms of trade volatility and lower growth rates when the degree of volatility in the income terms of trade is decomposed into its components fluctuations in real exports are of a magnitude similar to those in the relative price of tradables similarly the volatility in the net barter terms of trade is equally affected by variations in the price of exports and of imports any policies aimed at stabilizing the terms of trade or any of its components need to take account of this

producer surplus and risk this paper examines the welfare economics of producer behavior under risk aversion hicksian marshallian and money equivalent measures are explored it is found that under decreasing absolute risk aversion compensating variation is less than the ordinary marshallian surplus which is less than the money equivalent measure under constant absolute risk aversion all measures coincide finally bounds on compensating and equivalent variations using ordinary producer surplus in a manner analogous to willige approach in consumer theory under certainty are studied similar results hold mutatis mutandis for input demands

income distribution and housing prices an assignment model approach we present a framework for studying the relation between the distributions of income and house prices that is based on an assignment model where households are heterogeneous by incomes and houses by quality each household owns one house and wishes to live in one house thus everyone is potentially both a buyer and a seller in equilibrium the distribution of prices depends on both distributions in a tractable but nontrivial manner we show how the impact of increased income inequality on house prices depends on the shapes of the distributions and can be inferred from data in our empirical application we find that increased income inequality between 1998 and 2007 had a negative impact on average house prices in 6 us metropolitan areas jel d31 r21

the housing market s of san diego this paper uses an assignment model to understand the cross section of house prices within a metro area movers demand for housing is derived from a lifecycle problem with credit market frictions equilibrium house prices adjust to assign houses that dier by quality to movers who dier by age income and wealth to quantify the model we measure distributions of house prices house qualities and mover characteristics from micro data on san diego county during the 2000s boom the main result is that cheaper credit for poor households was a major driver of prices especially at the low end of the market

preference free optimal hedging using futures abstract this paper provides an alternative formulation and proof of the conditions under which optimal hedge ratios are independent of risk preference and points out that the conditions are satisfied by a wide class of models of spot and futures returns

hedging multiple price uncertainty in international grain trade commodity and freight futures contracts are analyzed for their effectiveness in reducing uncertainty for international traders a theoretical model is developed for a trader exposed to several types of risk ols hedge ratio estimation is compared to the sur and the multivariate garch methodologies explicit modeling of the time variation in hedge ratios via the multivariate garch methodology using all derivatives and taking into account dependencies between prices results in reductions in risk even after accounting for transaction costs results confirm that while the commodity futures contracts are important for hedging risk freight futures are a useful mechanism for reducing risk copyright 2000 oxford university press

cross hedging under multiplicative basis risk cross hedging price risk in an incomplete financial market creates basis risk we propose a new way of modeling basis risk where price risk and basis risk are combined in a multiplicative way under this specification positive prudence is a necessary and sufficient condition for underhedging in an unbiased market using the example of cross hedging jet fuel price risk with crude oil futures we show that the new specification is superior in describing the price series and that optimal cross hedges differ significantly from those derived under the traditional additive cross hedging model

determinants of hedging and risk premia in commodity futures markets this paper examines the determinants of commodity futures hedging and of risk premia arising from covariation of the futures price with stock market returns and with the reve nues of producers owing to supply shocks that stochastically redistribute real wealth surplus between producers and consumers and to limited participation in the futures market the total risk premium in the model is not proportional to the contract s covariance with aggregate consumption stock market variability interacts with the incentive to hedge causing the producer hedging component of the risk premium to increase de crease with income elasticity for a normal inferior good production costs that depend on output raise the premium we argue that output and demand shocks will typically be positively correlated raising the premium high supply elasticity reduces the absolute heding premium by reducing the variability of spot price and revenue

tax versus emissions trading scheme in the long run in this paper we compare the performance of emission taxes and tradable permits under free market entry when firms face idiosyncratic ex ante cost uncertainty we show that under auctioned permits insufficient entry occurs while under a linear emission tax scheme depending on parameters market entry can be either excessive or insufficient our long run analysis thus contrasts with spulber s 1985 equivalence result and also modifies weitzman s result in favor of an ets in that the superiority of a tax over an ets is not guaranteed even when the weitzman condition favors a tax we also show that an ets is superior to a tax scheme when the entry cost is low and the magnitude of uncertainty asymmetric information and the size of the output market are large

long run industry equilibrium with uncertainty abstract in this paper we consider the effects of uncertainty on industry equilibrium when firms must commit themselves to production before prices are revealed we show that a an increase in demand uncertainty will i not affect the equilibrium number and size of firms if they are risk neutral ii reduce the equilibrium number of firms if they are risk averse but will have an ambiguous effect on their size b in equilibrium firms operate at capacity if they are risk neutral but at excess capacity if they are risk averse

market uncertainty and competitive equilibrium entry abstract firms facing an uncertain market environment can choose the optimal mix of early and late production by trading off informational advantages of late production against cost advantages of early production consequently their choice of entry into the market whether early and or late depends on the interplay of cost and stochastic demand conditions this paper characterizes the competitive equilibrium conditions that determine the mode of market entry and derives comparative statics results to show how competitive equilibrium entry modes vary with changes in various market conditions

residential income segregation a behavioral model of the housing market abstract we represent the functioning of the housing market and study the relation between income segregation income inequality and house prices by introducing a spatial agent based model abm differently from traditional models in urban economics we explicitly specify the behavior of buyers and sellers and the price formation mechanism buyers who differ by income select among heterogeneous neighborhoods using a probabilistic model of residential choice sellers employ an aspiration level heuristic to set their reservation offer price prices are determined through a continuous double auction we first provide an approximate analytical solution of the abm shedding light on the structure of the model and on the effect of the parameters we then simulate the abm and find that i a more unequal income distribution lowers the prices globally but implies stronger segregation ii a spike in demand in one part of the city increases the prices all over the city iii subsidies are more efficient than taxes in fostering social mixing

the theory of the firm in long run equilibrium in a recent series of articles economists have investigated the comparative statics of the neoclassical firm in a competitive environment with the specific proviso that output price adjusts in response to changes in factor prices the older theory of the firm such as is found for example in paul samuelson 1947 is deficient in this regard metaphors such as short run have been used to gloss over the inconsistency of holding output price constant in the face of changing costs through changing factor prices in this paper a simple yet thorough analysis of a firm in a competitive industry i e a firm facing zero entry and adjustment cost conditions is given new results pertaining to restrictions on the behavior of such firms are offered also the length and complexity of established results is substantially reduced

provisional liquidation of futures hedge programs abstract frequently a firm sets a capital allowance for its risk management program such that early liquidation is dictated when the loss from the derivative position exceeds the allowance using a two period framework we show that the early liquidation decision is supported when futures returns exhibit positive first order autocorrelation an empirical study concerning natural gas acquisition of a local distribution company ldc demonstrates possibilities of early liquidation underlying optimal hedge policies

an experiment on spatial competition with endogenous pricing hotelling s 1929 principle of minimum differentiation and the alternative prediction that firms will maximally differentiate from their rivals in order to relax price competition have not been explicitly tested so far we report results from experimental spatial duopolies designed to address this issue the levels of product differentiation observed are systematically lower than predicted in equilibrium under risk neutrality and compatible with risk aversion the observed prices are consistent with collusion attempts our main findings are robust to variations in three experimental conditions automated vs human market sharing rule for ties individual vs collective decision making and even vs odd number of locations

house allocation with transfers we consider the shapley scarf house allocation problem where monetary transfers are allowed we characterize the class of mechanisms that are strategy proof ex post individually rational ex post budget balanced and collusion proof in these mechanisms the price of each object is fixed in advance and the objects are reallocated according to the unique core assignment of the shapley scarf economy associated with the prices the special case in which all prices are zero is the core mechanism studied by shapley and scarf our mechanisms are compelling alternatives to the groves mechanisms which satisfy neither budget balance nor our condition of collusion proofness journal of economic literature classification numbers c71 c78 d71 d78 d89

technological change in large u s commercial banks this article examines technological change its relationship to firm size and its impact on the efficient scale of output and product mix for large u s commercial banks the results suggest that technological change lowered real costs by about one percent per year increased the cost minimizing scale of outputs and affected product mix the authors do not find support for the galbraith schumpeter hypothesis this suggests that the largest banks cannot use innovation alone to outpace smaller banks the major implications are that public policies allowing freer banking combinations do not necessarily run counter to the public interest copyright 1991 by university of chicago press

industry equilibrium uncertainty and futures markets abstract this paper studies competitive long run industry equilibrium with uncertainty and futures trading we also provide a long run analysis of futures trading instead of the conventional short run analysis it is shown without using a general equilibrium model that given uncertain demand and risk aversion a bias backwardation or contango arises in long run industry equilibrium given risk neutrality such a bias however disappears we find that the occurrence of the bias depends not only on the existence of a risk premium but also on the length of the period considered each risk averse firm operates at a less efficient scale and moreover an expected spot price never accords with marginal cost when the expected spot price is less than marginal cost the risk averse firm can secure profit by selling futures contracts more than the amount of its output in the presence of production supply uncertainty a risk neutral firm operates with excess capacity under additive risk while the firm operates with proper capacity under multiplicative risk the key lies in whether its average cost curve is shifted by production risk

the differential impact of uncertainty on investment in small and large businesses we study the impact of profit uncertainty on investment and whether or not this response is different in industries that are dominated by small firms versus those that are dominated by relatively larger firms our key findings are that the sign of the investment uncertainty relationship is negative and that the quantitative negative impact is substantially greater in industries dominated by small firms these results are robust to accounting for potential endogeneity of the uncertainty measure alternate procedures for measuring uncertainty and alternate ways of segmenting industries into small and large firm groups

asymmetnc taxation and the theory of the competitive firm under uncertainty this paper examines the implications of the asymmetries in the tax treatment of corporate profits and losses for the theory of the competitive firm under uncertainty it is shown that the tax asymmetry introduces a curvature into the firm s target function which affects its behaviour in the short run in long run industry equilibrium however most of the effects disappear at the firm level but still remain at the industry level

the hedging of an uncertain future foreign currency cash flow this paper derives the optimal hedge of an uncertain unknown quantity future foreign currency cash flow this more general optimal hedge includes the traditional hedge for a certain known quantity future foreign currency cash flow as a special case the optimal hedge is found to be unbounded and determined by firm specific conditions including the variance of the expected cash flow and the correlation of that future cash flow with actual exchange rate movements simulated optimal hedge values are found for u s based multinational firms possessing s dm cash flows using exchange rate data for the 1981 1987 period special cases in which the optimal hedge ratio equals zero and one also are identified and we show that cash flow uncertainty can strongly affect the effectiveness of hedging

shadow economies size causes and consequences using various methods the size of the shadow economy in 76 developing transition and oecd countries is estimated average size varies from 12 percent of gdp for oecd countries to 23 percent for transition countries and 39 percent for developing countries increasing taxation and social security contributions combined with rising state regulations are driving forces for the increase of the shadow economy especially in oecd countries according to some findings corruption has a positive impact on the size of the shadow economy and a growing shadow economy has a negative effect on official gdp growth

noise a firm made trade barrier abstract a dominant domestic firm confronted by a fringe of risk averse importers achieves higher profits by adopting a volatile price policy than by setting quantity according to the standard marginal condition the fluctuating domestic price is equivalent to a tariff on imports for all intents and purposes the local firm raises its rivals costs

on sustainability and the economics of survival this paper investigates the implications of sustainability and survival strategies for economic analysis it reviews connections between the approaches used by economists and biological scientists in the study of survival the paper emphasizes the role of irreversibility and uncertainty in the investigation of sustainability issues implications of the results for the analysis of economic behavior are discussed

competitive production and increases in risk the theory of the firm is a monumental achievement of neoclassical economics without this engine of analysis it would be difficult if not impossible to comprehend the pricing output and input decisions of firms as they respond to routine events like the imposition of a tax the opening of a new market a technical innovation and a sudden shortage of a key factor of production it is remarkable that this theory has been successful in explaining behavior that to a large extent is motivated by both profit and risk when the theory itself has only explicitly considered the profit motive this is not the place to dwell on the evolution of economic theory it suffices to note that there are many important economic phenomena that the purely deterministic theory does not explain the purpose of this note is to elucidate the way in which risk influences the output decisions of riskaverse entrepreneurs and the number of riskneutral firms in a competitive industry in both cases the predicted behavior differs from that of the deterministic theory in our study we shall restrict attention to the behavior of firms in a single period 2 setting the firm has no control over price and because storage makes no sense simply sells all of its output at the going price the source of uncertainty is the requirement that the firm produce before price is known where the price is a random variable with a known probability distribution the firm chooses output to maximize its expected utility it is well known that in the presence of uncertainty the optimal output of the risk averse firm is less than that of the riskneutral firm moreover increases in risk aversion in the sense of arrow and john pratt lead to further diminutions in output on the other hand for a fixed degree of risk aversion the change in output induced by a mean preserving increase in risk depends on the shape of the cost curve as well as the sign of the third derivative of the utility function u and the sign of the second derivative of qu q next competitive industry behavior under uncertainty is analyzed in order to isolate the effect of uncertainty firms are assumed to be risk neutral we show that both the optimal number of firms in the industry and excess capacity increase as industry output becomes riskier results like this are important for probabilistic economics for it would be unfortunate if the vitality of the stochastic theory of the firm relied solely on the controversial assumption of risk aversion 3

the comparative statics of a competitive industry facing demand uncertainty abstract the comparative statics of a competitive industry under uncertainty with free entry is clarified and extended using the general structure of random demand due to leland 1972 while strong results are obtained for the industry few unambiguous results can be derived for the firm

the effects of product price uncertainty on the owner managed firm theory and evidence in this paper we extend the theory of the owner managed firm to incorporate product price uncertainty and we present an empirical test of the model s predictions under product price uncertainty the trade off between leisure and profit faced by an owner manager is combined with the trade off between surety and risk bearing faced by an entrepreneur the firm s owner bears the uninsurable and undiversifiable risk about profit caused by product price uncertainty and as manager supplies the firm a unique labor factor the model predicts that the substitution effect of an increase in risk on the quantity supplied by the firm is negative the income effect of risk reinforces the substitution effect if the entrepreneur s labor supply has a positive wage elasticity but runs counter to and could dominate the substitution effect if the wage elasticity of labor supply for the entrepreneur is sufficiently negative unlike previous research on price uncertainty and the firm this paper presents an empirical test of the model s predictions using data on physicians in solo practice our empirical analysis indicates that although wage elasticities of labor supply for the physician entrepreneurs are negative greater risk leads to a reduction in output these results suggest that the substitution effect is dominant in determining the response to product price uncertainty for the owner managed firms in our sample frank knight 12 gave prominence to the risk bearing role of the entrepreneur who as residual claimant bears the risk associated with a firm s revenue tibor scitovsky 21 later emphasized a different aspect of entrepreneurial activity the trade off confronted by an ownermanager between consumption of leisure and pursuit of profit both models of the entrepreneur are relevant to predicting the behavior of an owner managed firm operating in a risky environment the entrepreneur in such a firm must choose between consuming leisure and supplying labor which provides an uncertain return the random residual of revenue net of payments to other factors

revenue neutral tax policies under price uncertainty reply in their comment on my 1990 article yeh suwanakul and mai extend my analysis which focused attention exclusively on firm output to allow for simultaneous endogeneity of price aggregate output and numbers of firms they show that with downward sloping demand industry output adjusts positively to revenue neutral changes in the marginal rate of taxation this result is significant for two reasons first we are more often interested in predictions about aggregate phenomena than we are in predictions about individual firms indeed firm level predictions are frequently irrefutable since firm data are often unavailable second the authors derive their result under a set of conditions that appear to be more general than those invoked in my 1990 article in particular they circumvent the need to invoke specific assumptions about the nature of firms aversions toward risk i consider this a useful extension and i appreciate the careful scrutiny of my paper

the aggregate effects of risk in the agricultural sector the theory of the firm facing a random output price is extended to include industry equilibrium conditions in a way particularly important for agriculture land prices adjust to maintain industry equilibrium the comparative statics and the effects of policy for the firm are significantly altered the main finding is that risk and other parameter changes are capitalized into the price of land and yield wealth or income effects rather than substitution effects this often simplifies the analysis

long run scale adjustments of a perfectly competitive firm and industry an alternative approach the purpose of this note is to use the cost function technique to derive the results of the recent article in this review by c e ferguson and thomas saving hereafter f s our interest lies not so much in the results as in the simplicity and power of the technique itself in contrast to the rather cumbersome conventional apparatus of comparative statics micro theory 1 we shall not therefore discuss in detail the f s interpretations of their results although the technique should give the reader a more intuitive grasp of what is going on following f s we assume that the production function f x is increasing in each input strictly concave and twice continuously differentiable on the positive orthant all equilibrium input vectors are assumed strictly positive we start from the duality between production and cost functions demonstrated by shephard uzawa and mcfadden under our assumptions the production function may be uniquely characterized by its minimum total cost function defined for all p 0 by2 c min ptixi f x q

competitive industry equilibrium under uncertainty and free entry this paper investigates the properties of industry equilibrium under price uncertainty given free entry and exit for any form of risk averse behavior it is shown that an increase in demand uncertainty as measured by a mean preserving spread increases mean output price and reduces output of firms in long run equilibrium

risk aversion supply response and the optimality of random prices a diagrammatic analysis this paper analyzes the effect of commodity price stabilization on producers and consumers both in the short run and in the long run when producers have adjusted their production decisions to take account of the change in the price distribution we derive conditions under which a both producers and consumers may be better off and b both producers and consumers may be worse off moreover we show that the long run effects may differ not only quantitatively but also qualitatively from the short run effects the anomalous results may occur even with reasonable assumptions concerning production functions and utility functions of producers and consumers

risk aversion and technology mix in an electricity market this article analyzes the eff ect of risk and risk aversion on the long term equilibrium technology mix in an electricity market it develops a model where fi rms can invest in baseload plants with a fi xed variable cost and peak plants with a random variable cost and demand for electricity varies over time but is perfectly predictable at equilibrium the electricity price is partly determined by the random variable cost and the returns from the two kinds of plants are negatively correlated when the variable cost of the peak technology is high the return of peak plants is low but the return to baseload plants is high risk averse fi rms reduce the capacity of the riskiest technology and develop the capacity of the other compared to risk neutral fi rms in the particular case where a risk neutral fi rm invests heavily in baseload technology and only sparely in peak capacity a risk averse fi rm would invest less in baseload increase peak capacity and increase total installed capacity

heterogeneity under competition a standard prediction of neoclassical microeconomics is that with perfect competition free entry and atomistic firms producing a homogeneous product equilibrium finds all firms employing that technology which has minimum average cost that competition drives out inefficient producers and reduces heterogeneity within industries is consequently a commonplace rule of thumb in economic thinking this paper demonstrates that demand uncertainty is sufficient to produce heterogeneity in the equilibrium employment of production technologies and to permit the coexistence of producers exhibiting different minimum average costs this heterogeneity is ubiquitous because the conditions for its presence are not stringent

hedging price risk when real wealth matters abstract this paper analyzes optimal hedging of a tradable risk e g price risk or exchange rate risk with forward contracts in the presence of untradable inflation risk utility is defined over real wealth optimal forward positions are derived relative to a given initial exposure in the tradable risk a nominally unbiased forward market usually implies a non zero real risk premium and hence some risk taking if untradable inflation risk is a monotone function of the tradable risk plus noise cross hedging and speculating on the real risk premium are conflicting objectives the level of relative risk aversion determines which objective is dominant in a nominally unbiased forward market

production uncertainty and the market equilibrium of the competitive firm abstract assumptions outputs are planned ex ante by risk neutral firms actual outputs are stochastic with variance function of planned output production costs are function of planned outputs while the market linear demand function is stable if individual outputs as positively correlated expected profit is decreased by the negative covariance between output and price the firms and market equilibria are analyzed in the short run and the long run with varying number of firms they are compared with oi s and tisdell s uncertain demand models

technical change organizational form and the structure of bank production of those technological characteristics related to the nature of competition among firms in an industry or market scale economies and technical change are especially important economies of scale are said to exist when an equiproportional increase in all inputs results in a greater than proportional increase in output or equivalently when an increase in output at constant input prices leads to a less than proportional increase in total costs thus average costs decline as output expands depending upon the extent to which costs decline as output increases regulation of the firms in the industry may be necessary l the literature analyzing scale economies in commercial banking is voluminous the early studies on scale economies in banking include those by benston 1965 1972 greenbaum 1967 murphy 1972 and bell and murphy 1968 more recent studies include those by benston hanweck and humphrey 1982 and clark 1984 2 this literature has established that mild scale economies exist in bank

industry equilibrium with uncertainty and labor managed firms abstract this paper characterizes long run industry equilibrium composed of labor managed firms under demand uncertainty moreover it is demonstrated how the number and size of firms in the industry respond to a change in uncertainty

a note on free entry under uncertainty the role of asymmetric information in a model of competing managerial firms i show that the equilibrium number of firms decreases with uncertainty if entry is relatively more costly than monitoring the result adds to the earlier contributions and is consistent with the available evidence

revenue neutral tax policies under price uncertainty comment in an interesting paper in this journal holloway investigated the firm s response to revenue neutral taxation under price uncertainty in his analysis revenue neutral policies adjust simultaneously the marginal tax rate and the level of exemptions while keeping expected tax receipts constant using an assumption of nonincreasing absolute risk aversion he concluded that a reduction in the marginal rate would cause the firm to contract output holloway used the 1986 tax reform act as an example of a revenue neutral policy as a matter of fact the act was intended to be revenue neutral while low

some recent developments in futures hedging the use of futures contracts as a hedging instrument has been the focus of much research at the theoretical level an optimal hedge strategy is traditionally based on the expected utility maximization paradigm a simplification of this paradigm leads to the minimum variance criterion although this paradigm is quite well accepted alternative approaches have been sought at the empirical level research on futures hedging has benefited from the recent developments in the econometrics literature much research has been done on improving the estimation of the optimal hedge ratio as more is known about the statistical properties of financial time series more sophisticated estimation methods are proposed in this survey we review some recent developments in futures hedging we delineate the theoretical underpinning of various methods and discuss the econometric implementation of the methods

broken symmetry symmetry and price uncertainty or short and long run comparative statics of the competitive firm abstract the notion of broken or hidden symmetry is applied to a long run characterization of a competitive firm operating under price uncertainty the main result of the paper is the restoration of a slutsky type symmetry of the input demand functions within an expected utility framework which does not involve any assumption about risk aversion a second conclusion is that economic relations expressed in terms of relative quantities are essential in the long run comparative statics under price uncertainty

the short run comparative statics of a rental housing market abstract this paper examines the short run effects of changes in exogenous variables including several government policies on the schedule relating market equilibrium rent to quality level the basic model differs from sweeney econometrica 42 147 167 1974 by use of a bid rent closed city approach rather than a supply and demand partially open city approach the mathematics changes completely the analytics simplify and the results change somewhat housing is treated as a durable quality differentiated good but frictional forces and the multidimensionality of the housing package are ignored the exception is an extension to a monocentric city context so that housing units vary in both quality and location

urban economic theory land use and city size this book examines the economic reasons why people choose to live where they live and develops through analysis of the bid rent function a unified theory of urban land use and city size the first part of the book explicates the basic theory of urban land use and optimal city size residential location behavior of households is examined in a microeconomic framework and equilibrium and optimal patterns of residential land use are discussed the corresponding equilibrium and optimal city sizes are studied in a variety of contexts part two extends the classical theories of von thunen and alonso with the addition of externality factors such as local public goods crowding and congestion and racial prejudice the rigorous mathematical approach and theoretical treatment of the material make urban economic theory of interest to researchers in urban economics location theory urban geography and urban planning

the determinants and welfare implications of us workers diverging location choices by skill 1980 2000 abstract from 1980 to 2000 the rise in the us college high school graduate wage gap coincided with increased geographic sorting as college graduates concentrated in high wage high rent cities this paper estimates a structural spatial equilibrium model to determine causes and welfare consequences of this increased skill sorting while local labor demand changes fundamentally caused the increased skill sorting it was further fueled by endogenous increases in amenities within higher skill cities changes in cities wages rents and endogenous amenities increased inequality between high school and college graduates by more than suggested by the increase in the college wage gap alone jel d31 i26 j24 j31 j61 r23

the simultaneous determination of spot and futures prices in a simple model with production risk this paper deals with properties of a rational expectations equilibrium when there is futures trading a simple two good model is analyzed where one of the goods is produced subject to production risk although the futures market provides insurance against price risk to producers it is income risk that concerns them whether they hedge in equilibrium is shown to depend on the price and income elasticity of demand for their output as well as on the degree to which consumers the other party in the futures transaction are risk averse

mergers and technical efficiency in spanish savings banks a stochastic distance function approach abstract the aim of this paper is to test the temporal variation of technical efficiency of spanish savings banks during the period 1985 1998 furthermore we test whether merged and non merged firms have different levels and temporal patterns of technical efficiency a stochastic output distance function r w shephard theory of cost and production functions princeton university press princeton nj is employed to accommodate multiple output technology the distance function provides the advantage that it does not need information about prices so it can accommodate the multi product nature of the financial sector only using the quantities as data an important point when the assumptions about perfectly competitive markets are unlikely to be met the temporal variation of efficiency is modeled extending the battese and coelli journal of productivity analysis 3 1992 153 169 approach in two ways relaxing the monotonicity of the temporal variation pattern of the efficiency term and allowing for different patterns of efficiency change between merged and non merged firms

an examination on the cost efficiency of the banking industry under multiple output prices uncertainty this article formulates a behavioural model of profit maximization which explicitly incorporates both multiple output prices risk and safety first practice this theoretical model is specifically suitable for investigating financial institutions whose output prices frequently encounter a variety of risks such as loan defaults arrears the sample banks are empirically found to be highly risk averse furthermore risk preferences exert little effect on the technical efficiency estimates whereas the same estimates obtained by the standard fixed effect model under certainty tend to be overestimated evidence is found that a specialized bank offering a single product with a larger scale of production will be preferable in an uncertain atmosphere

cross hedging jet fuel price exposure abstract this paper investigates the cross hedging performance of several oil forwards contracts using wti brent gasoil and heating oil to manage jet fuel spot price exposure we apply three econometric techniques that have been widely tested and applied in the cross hedging literature on foreign exchange and stock index futures markets using quotes from the financial industry on forward contracts we can show that the optimal cross hedging instrument depends on the maturity of the instrument s forwards contract the results highlight that the standard approach in the literature to use crude oil as a cross hedge is not optimal for time horizons of three months or less by contrast for short hedging horizons our results indicate that gasoil forwards contracts represent the highest cross hedging efficiency for jet fuel spot price exposure while for maturities of more than three months the predominance of gasoil diminishes in comparison to wti and brent

why has house price dispersion gone up we calibrate a dynamic general equilibrium island model to investigate the 30 year increase in the level of house prices and their dispersion across u s metropolitan areas the model is based on two main assumptions households o w in and out metropolitan areas in response to local productivity shocks and the housing supply cannot adjust instantly because of technological and regulatory constraints the calibration reveals that the observed tightening of housing supply regulation cannot quantitatively account for the rise in the level and dispersion of house prices in equilibrium workers o w out of tightly regulated towards less regulated metropolitan areas undoing most of the price impact of local supply restrictions in contrast the observed increase in wage dispersion across metropolitan areas does create the observed increase in the level and dispersion of house prices workers o w towards exceptionally productive metropolitan areas and drive house prices up the calibration also suggests that the welfare eects of housing supply regulation are large when wages become more dispersed

supply response under proportional profits taxation a striking result in the theory of the competitive firm under certainty is the proposition that a proportional profits tax with full offsets for losses will have no impact on optimal output this result does not apply under uncertainty it is shown that under constant or increasing returns to scale a proportional profits tax will yield an unambiguous expansion in output the same result is shown to hold for the more general rank dependent expected utility rdeu model

on output price uncertainty and the comparative statics of industry equilibrium the analysis of firm response to output price variability has until recently been incomplete due to a failure to consider explicitly the effect of firm response on the attainment of competitive equilibrium at the industry level a recent paper by appelbaum and katz 1 has addressed the issue of industry equilibrium under output price uncertainty they show how the optimal number of firms might change through the process of exit and entry and they characterize the collective influence of firms decisions on expected market price however their analysis focuses on firms with a single stage production process which allows no production flexibility in the form of adjustment of output levels after output price is revealed an earlier paper by hartman 3 has shown that at the firm level the optimal response to output price uncertainty will depend on whether production flexibility exists specifically if firms employ a two stage production process which is characterized by the presence of a quasi fixed factor then firm level output may increase or decrease in response to changes in output price variability even if firms are risk neutral the assumption that production flexibility exists changes those results initially developed by sandmo 7 and applied more recently by appelbaum and katz 1 which are based on a single stage production process this paper provides an extension of the appelbaum and katz analysis to admit production flexibility equivalently it extends the analysis of hartman to consider explicitly the effect of firm response on the attainment of competitive equilibrium at the industry level appelbaum and katz show that for an industry of identical risk averse firms with a singlestage production technology the effect of a mean preserving increase in price uncertainty is to decrease industry output and to raise market price a more recent comment by ishii 5 shows that output per firm will also fall yet none of these authors shows unambiguously whether the number of firms increases or decreases although not explicitly stated the analysis in appelbaum and katz suggests there would be no firm or industry response to a mean preserving change in price spread if firms were risk neutral expected profit maximizers the model employed in this paper is analogous to that of appelbaum and katz with two principal exceptions i here an industry is composed of firms all of which are either risk neutral

price uncertainty and the price discriminating firm in international trade the firm operating in an uncertain environment was initially analyzed in detail by sandmo 1971 and by leland 1972 since these early papers many extensions to the analysis have been explored by such writers as batra and ullah 1974 mayer 1975 hartman 1976 holthausen 1976 stewart 1978 paroush and kahana 1979 anid katz and paroush 1979 this paper investigates the optimal policy of a pr ice discriminating firm which operates under pr ice uncertainty in one of two markets the main motivation for the analysis comes from the problems of a firm which sells its output both domestically and abroad such a firm often has nearly full information about the domestic market b ut faces uncertainty in foreign markets in particular the firm which has its utility defined over profits denominated in terms of domestic currency will regard the profits on its foreign sales as uncertain given excha nge rate variability even if it has full information about all other conditions in the foreign market hence the paper may be regarded both as an extension to the above mentioned analyses of the firm under uncertainty and as an attempt to throw light on the activities of firms involved in international trade the treatment being essentially of a mricroeconomic nature is clearly different from that of such writers as batra 1 975 and helpman and razin 1979 which are essentially macroeconomic treatments

the wage distribution in a model of the assignment of skills to jobs this paper discusses a general equilibrium model of the assignment of heterogeneous workers to heterogeneous jobs both jobs and workers are measured along a continuous one dimensional scale the c

stochastically dominating shifts and the competitive firm abstract the production responses of the competitive firm to stochastically dominating shifts in the distribution of output price have been the object of much research in a recent paper simpson and sproule metroeconomica 51 2 2000 168 181 present five sets of sufficient conditions any one of which may be used to jointly sign the production responses of the competitive firm to first second and third order stochastically dominating shifts this paper demonstrates that one of the conditions outlined in the above mentioned reference is unnecessarily restrictive in the case of the logarithmic and the positive power utility functions

spatial asset pricing a first step people choose where to live and how much to invest in housing traditionally the first decision has been the domain of spatial economics while the second has been analyzed in finance spatial asset pricing is an attempt to combine equilibrium concepts from both disciplines in the finance context we show how spatial decisions can be framed as an expanded portfolio problem within spatial economics we identify the consequences of hedging motives for location decisions we characterize a number of observable deviations from standard predictions in finance e g the definition of the relevant market portfolio for the pricing of risk includes homeownership rates and in spatial economics e g hedging considerations and the pricing of risk affect the geographic allocation of human capital

a general index of technical change this paper outlines a procedure for estimating a general index of technical change within the context of a quite general production technology specifically when panel data are available for firms in an industry time specific dummies can be combined in a nonlinear estimation procedure to yield a general index of technical change that may be both nonneutral and scale augmenting this approach offers numerous advantages over the traditional time trend representation of technical change for example the general index can serve as the basis for analysis of the determinants of technical change results for a sample of 30 electric utilities over the period 1951 78 show that the productivity decline of the 1970s can be attributed primarily to sulphur oxide restrictions and secularly declining capacity utilization due to rapidly increasing peak load demands

on the theory of the competitive firm under uncertainty when initial wealth is random since sandmo s seminal paper on the theory of the competitive firm under output price uncertainty there has been considerable research on this topic 2 5 6 10 11 14 in all these studies it is assumed that in the absence of complete contingent markets output price risk is the only source of uncertainty for the firm however this may not be a realistic assumption in particular as argued by kihlstrom et al 7 it appears reasonable to consider the case where some of the initial wealth of the firm is held in risky assets in that case initial wealth is uncertain and should be modelled as a random variable the objective of this paper is to investigate the introduction of random initial wealth in sandmo s theory of the firm under price uncertainty in sandmo s model a number of important comparative static results e g the conditions under which the supply function is upward sloping 14 69 or under which increased price uncertainty reduces supply 5 depends critically on the sign of a particular expression stated in lemma 2 in ishii 5 while sandmo 14 69 shows this expression is non negative under arrow pratt decreasing absolute risk aversion it can be verified that his proof no longer holds when initial wealth is random therefore the comparative static analysis conducted by sandmo 14 batra and ullah 2 and ishii 5 is no longer valid and gives ambiguous results under initial wealth uncertainty the reason is that the arrow pratt measures of risk aversion 1 12 are too weak for making comparisons in situations where there is more than one source of uncertainty 13 then what can be deduced from the theory of the competitive firm in the realistic case where both initial wealth and output price are uncertain we will show here that meaningful results on the behavior of the competitiv firm under uncertainty can be obtained provided that the arrow pratt measures of risk aversion 1 12 are replaced by the ross measures of risk aversion 13 in particular a comparative static analysis of the production decisions using ross characterization of risk behavior is presented a number of new results are derived on the properties of risk responsive supply and input demand functions under both price and initial wealth uncertainty

optimal hedging in the futures market under price uncertainty abstract we show that there exists a simple optimal hedging rule in the futures markets for all risk averse decision makers given that a futures price today is an unbiased predictor of the futures price next period b basis is independent of the spot price

technological uncertainty and the theory of the firm several recent articles 1 6 have generalized the theory of the firm to incorporate price uncertainty and risk aversion it is now well known that the risk averse entrepreneur will select that level of output at which the expected price equals the marginal cost plus the marginal risk premium leland 5 provides a similar generalization given demand uncertainty however in each case the assumption of a well specified technology is maintained this paper complements and generalizes the earlier work on the theory of the firm by investigating the effect which technological uncertainty has on the firm s optimal production decision like the earlier work on the theory of the firm we show that the firm selects the level of input at which the expected marginal productivity equals the factor price plus the marginal risk premium unlike the earlier work we show that the sign of the marginal risk premium is not always positive and that it depends on the structure of the firm s technology we show that the distinction between price and technological uncertainty is important because each can lead to different implications for firm behavior like its predecessors the model of the firm presented here assumes a single ownerentrepreneur who makes the production decision we modify the baron and sandmo models by assuming that the entrepreneur knows the cost of each production decision but not the output as a result the entrepreneur s decision yields a random variable denoting output and a linear transformation of it denoting profit the entrepreneur chooses the random variable denoting profit to maximize his expected utility there are at least three distinct ways in which our notion of technological uncertainty may be interpreted first the entrepreneur may not know the location of the production surface in this case each production decision yields a random output an increase in the

a simple multiperiod minimum risk hedge model a multiperiod hedging model is developed that is simpler than other multiperiod models in the literature the model permits periodic adjustment of the hedge while minimizing the producer s profit variance minimum risk hedge ratios are calculated for steers cows hogs corn and soybeans using the full model with hedge adjustments every two months these ratios are compared to those using the model without periodic hedge adjustments and to a simple single period model the results suggest that simple models may work well for simple hedges while the full model is best for more complex hedging situations such as cross hedges our purpose in this paper is to develop a multiperiod hedging model in which the hedge can be updated each period other multiperiod hedging models e g anderson and danthine karp have substantial data requirements which limit their use as viable hedging tools our aim is to develop a simpler model that will have practical application the model is used to calculate minimum risk hedge ratios for steers cows hogs corn and soybeans and these ratios are compared with hedge ratios based on a multiperiod model in which the hedge cannot be adjusted each period simple minimum risk hedge ratios also are computed for each commodity and compared with the other ratios

housing over time and over the life cycle a structural estimation we estimate a structural model of optimal life cycle housing and nonhousing con sumption in the presence of labor income and house price uncertainties the model postulates constant elasticity of substitution between housing service and nonhousing consumption and explicitly incorporates a housing adjustment cost our estimationts the cross sectional and time series household wealth and housing proles from the panel study of income dynamics 1984 to 2005 reasonably well and suggests an intratemporal elasticity of substitution between housing and nonhousing consumption of 0 487 the low elasticity estimate is largely driven by moments conditional on state house prices and moments in the latter half of the sample period and is robust to different assumptions of housing adjustment cost we then conduct policy analyses in which we let house price and income take values as those observed between 2006 and 2011 we show that the responses depend importantly on the housing adjustment cost and the elasticity of sub stitution between housing and nonhousing consumption in particular compared with the benchmark the impact of the shocks on homeownership rates is reduced but the impact on nonhousing consumption is magnied when the house selling cost is sizable or when housing service and nonhousing consumption are highly substitutable

collusion under risk aversion and fixed costs we analyze collusion under demand uncertainty by risk averse cartels that care about the utility derived from profits with sufficient risk aversion and non trivial fixed operating costs it becomes difficult for cartels to collusively restrict output both when demand is low and marginal dollars are highly valued and when demand is high and potential defection profits are high output relative to monopoly levels becomes a u shaped function of demand greater risk aversion or higher fixed operating costs make collusion more difficult to support in recessions but easier to support in booms

how do banks adjust to changing input prices a dynamic analysis of u s commercial banks before and after the crisis abstract the 2000 2013 period was characterized by substantial regulatory monetary and technological change especially after the onset of the global financial crisis this study assesses the total impact of these policy shifts and technological changes on u s commercial banks short run and long run substitution elasticities an endogenous break test divides the sample into a pre crisis period and a post crisis period during the former period banks inputs tend to be inelastic substitutes after the onset of the crisis particularly the long run substitutability of most input factors decreases to even lower levels due to changes in both cost technology and economic conditions at the same time banks response to input price changes becomes more sluggish hence especially after the onset of the crisis banks have little flexibility regarding input factor usage and are thus sensitive to input price changes from a cost perspective

constant returns to scale and competitive equilibrium under uncertainty abstract this paper considers the implications of the assumption of constant returns to scale in expected utility maximizing models of the competitive firm or industry in which markets for risk are absent under widely used assumptions about risk preferences it is shown that with constant returns to scale average profits are more than necessary to cover the implicit costs of risk bearing when the free entry of identical firms is possible this assumption about technology is shown to be incompatible with the assumption that entrepreneurs are risk averse

income taxes property values and migration we consider the effects of income redistribution when people can migrate from one country to another and when land within each country is heterogeneous taxes related to income can then affect property values and can induce migration which further affects property values we show that under these conditions a utilitarian government should never equalize after tax incomes if migration is impossible it may even transfer income from the poor to the rich reducing the rents earned by absentee landlords the redistributive tax on the rich may be higher or lower when the rich can migrate than when they cannot a rawlsian government in the absence of mobility will equalize after tax incomes under mobility rawlsian governments cut their taxes if and only if the relative pre tax income of the poor is sufficiently low