unanticipated aggregate disturbances and tests of the life cycle consumption model several recent studies have used data on food consumption from the panel study of income dynamics psid to test t he rational expectations life cycle hypothesis against the alternative of prevalent liquidity constraints these tests invoke the rational expectations restriction that income forecast errors are independent of lagged information this restriction however applies only in a time series context it is possible that unanticipated macroeconomic disturbances cause forecast errors to be correlated with lagged information in a cross section of families the authors present evidence of such a correlation in the psid data show that this correlation biases previous tests of the life cycle model toward rejection and derive a proper test of the life cycle model using pa nel data copyright 1993 by mit press

welfare equivalent nnp and habit formation this note concerns the importance of habit formation for social accounting with internal habit formation earlier procedures for welfare measurement in the first best apply with minor modification

globalization and competitive strategy in europe s vulnerable regions firm industry and country effects in labour intensive industries clark g l palaskas t tracey p and tsampra m 2004 globalization and competitive strategy in europe s vulnerable regions firm industry and country effects in labour intensive industries regional studies38 1077 1092 european integration has prompted great interest in the adjustment capacities of small and medium enterprises in regions characterized by high levels of unemployment and lower than average incomes at issue in these circumstances is the extent to which economic competitiveness can be enhanced by technological change and the resources of european and national governments relying upon the results of a detailed survey of small and medium sized firm competitive strategies in selected vulnerable regions across europe the paper focuses upon firm adjustment strategies in four labour intensive industries vulnerable to international competition it draws together the results of these surveys providing econometric and statistical analyses that demonstrate the commonalities and difference

habit formation in state dependent pricing models implications for the dynamics of output and prices this paper examines the role of habit formation in a standard state dependent pricing sdp model incorporating habit formation helps the sdp model to generate hump shaped and more persistent output responses under a monetary shock more importantly incorporating habit formation causes dramatic changes in firm level pricing behaviors and as a result the aggregate price index

on the stability of the excess sensitivity of aggregate consumption growth in the usa summary this paper investigates whether there is time variation in the excess sensitivity of aggregate consumption growth to anticipated aggregate disposable income growth using quarterly us data over the period 1953 2014 our empirical framework contains the possibility of stickiness in aggregate consumption growth and takes into account measurement error and time aggregation our empirical specification is cast into a bayesian state space model and estimated using markov chain monte carlo mcmc methods we use a bayesian model selection approach to deal with the non regular test for the null hypothesis of no time variation in the excess sensitivity parameter anticipated disposable income growth is calculated by incorporating an instrumental variables estimation approach into our mcmc algorithm our results suggest that the excess sensitivity parameter in the usa is stable at around 0 23 over the entire sample period copyright 2016 john wiley sons ltd

pricing risk in economies with heterogeneous agents and incomplete markets habit formation has been proposed as a possible solution to the equity premium puzzle this paper extends the class of models that support the habits explanation in order to account for heterogeneity in earnings wealth habits and consumption i find that habit formation does indeed increase the equity premium however contrary to earlier results the habit hypothesis does not imply a price for risk as largeas the one measured in the data there are three reasons for this first households in a habits economy modify their consumption savings decision second they modify their portfolio choice these two changes in behavior diminish the consumption fluctuations faced by households third the composition of the set of agents pricing risk in the economy changes so that relatively better self insured households end up pricing risk jel d52 g12 e21 c68

a new method of estimating risk aversion i show existing evidence on labor supply behavior places an upper bound on risk aversion in the expected utility model i derive a formula for the coefficient of relative risk aversion in terms of the ratio of the income elasticity of labor supply to wage elasticity and degree of complementarity between consumption and labor i bound the degree of complementarity using data on consumption choices when labor supply varies across states using labor supply elasticity estimates i find a mean estimate of 1 then show generating 2 requires that wage increases cause sharper labor supply reductions jel d81 j22

the assessment household saving issues in theory and policy in this assessment we discuss the issues raised by the papers in this issue of the oxford review of economic policy in the context of economic models of household consumption and saving we also provide a discussion of what we consider to be some important areas in the current debate surrounding theories and evidence regarding saving behaviour we highlight the differences that arise from considering partial as opposed to general equilibrium models and in looking at developed as opposed to developing countries we also discuss current policy issues relating both to the adequacy of household saving and to the distribution of saving across households or across asset types as well as the need for more microdata on saving and asset holding

what can explain excess smoothness and sensitivity of state level consumption abstract this article estimates marginal propensities to consume mpc out of current and lagged income for u s states using panel data regressions that control for time specific and state level fixed effects the mpcs vary across states in particular the mpc out of current income is higher in states where income is more persistent and the mpc out of lagged income is lower in agricultural states we show that the estimated mpcs can be matched by a model of forward looking consumers that includes all of the following features time aggregation durable goods impatience credit constraints and risk sharing

a time series analysis of representative agent models of consumption andleisure choice under uncertainty this paper investigates empirically a model of aggregate consumption and leisure decisions in which utility from goods and leisure is nontime separable the nonseparability of preferences accommodates intertemporal substitution or complementarity of leisure and thereby affects the comovements in aggregate compensation and hours worked these cross relations are examined empirically using postwar monthly u s data on quantities real wages and the real return on the one month treasury bill the estimated values of the parameters governing preferences differ significantly from the values assumed in several studies of real business models several possible explanations of these discrepancies are discussed

habit formation in consumer preferences evidence from panel data this paper tests for the presence of habit formation using household data a simple model of habit formation implies a condition relating the strength of habits to the evolution of consumption over time when the condition is estimated with food consumption data from the panel study on income dynamics the results yield no evidence of habit formation at the annual frequency this finding is robust to a number of changes in the specification it also holds for several proxies for nondurables and services consumption created by combining psid variables with weights estimated from consumer expenditure survey data

competition wage commitments and application fees in this article i intend to justify the rare use of application fees in labor markets i analyze a model in which there is a training or testing period preceding a worker s effective production period with various commitment abilities of firms i find that application fees are used if and only if all future wages can be committed before a worker applies otherwise no application fees will be charged the model is then modified to explain the positive fees in journal submissions and college admissions

on the concept of territorial competitiveness sound or misleading in an era of globalisation the issue of territorial competitiveness is of increasingly central importance for regional development policies this paper aims to deal directly with the issue from a theoretical viewpoint in particular examining two related questions more thoroughly the question of the soundness of the concept of territorial competitiveness itself in terms of economic theory and the question of the new foundations on which this competitiveness is based using a cognitive evolutionary type approach

globalization and competitive strategies in european vulnerable regions affuso a capello r and fratesi u globalization and competitive strategies in european vulnerable regions regional studies this paper highlights the role played by structural economic features and industrial competitive strategies in the performance of a group of european regions defined as vulnerable because of their specialization in industries particularly exposed to international trade different growth patterns emerge among them the most successful regions are those with a strong presence of high value added functions of best performing vulnerable sectors but also with high structural funds expenditure on human resources moreover among the industrial strategies analysed it is found that the only winning strategy explaining higher productivity gains is industrial reconversion at the expense of employment growth affuso a capello r et fratesi u la mondialisation et les strategies competitives des regions europeennes vulnerables regional studies cet article cherche a souligner le rol

consumption and habit formation when time horizon is finite abstract this paper provides a closed form solution under labour uncertainty for optimal consumption and the value function in a finite horizon life cycle model with habit persistence

habit formation and the persistence of monetary shocks this paper studies the persistent e ects of monetary shocks on output previous empirical literature documents this persistence but standard general equilibrium models with sticky prices fail to generate output responses beyond the duration of nominal contracts this paper constructs and estimates a general equilibrium model with price rigidities habit formation and costly capital adjustment the model is estimated via maximum likelihood using u s data on output real money balances and the nominal interest rate econometric results suggest that habit formation and adjustment costs to capital play an important role in explaining the output e ects of monetary policy in particular impulse response analysis shows that the model generates persistent hump shaped output responses to monetary shocks

consumption and saving with habit formation and durability abstract this paper develops a model of precautionary saving with habit formation and durability durability offsets the effects of habit formation on both consumption growth and the precautionary premium empirical tests of habit formation and durability on consumption growth might exploit their parallel effects on the precautionary premium

international evidence on sticky consumption growth abstract this paper estimates the degree of stickiness in aggregate consumption growth sometimes interpreted as reflecting consumption habits for thirteen advanced economies we find that after controlling for measurement error consumption growth has a high degree of autocorrelation with a stickiness parameter of about 0 7 on average across countries the sticky consumption growth model outperforms the random walk model of hall 1978 and typically fits the data better than the popular mankiw 1989 model though in a few countries the sticky consumption growth and campbell mankiw models work about equally well

a test of the habit formation hypothesis using household data numerous studies have confirmed the importance of habit formation as represented by a lagged dependent variable in demand analysis although all work to date has been based on aggregate time series data this study uses household level bls interview panel data to test the habit hypothesis an interrelated demand system for seventeen goods is estimated from cross section data and compared with a similar system based on time series data the results show that the habit component is significantly different between the two data sets and much smaller in the cross section data habit effects while not as large in cross section data as time series are still highly significant several explanations are offered concerning why the two sets of estimates differ copyright 1991 by mit press

slow information diffusion and the inertial behavior of durable consumption this paper studies the aggregate dynamics of durable and nondurable consumption under slow information diffusion sid due to noisy observations and learning within the permanent income framework we show that sid can significantly improve the model s predictions on the joint behavior of income durable consumption and nondurable consumption at the aggregate level specifically we find that sid can significantly improve the model s predictions for i smoothness in durable and nondurable consumption ii autocorrelation of durable consumption and iii contemporaneous correlation between durable and nondurable consumption furthermore we discuss that incorporating a fixed cost into our sid model does a better job of reproducing the infrequent adjustments of durable consumption at the individual level and the slow adjustments at the aggregate level

implications of state dependent pricing for dynamic macroeconomic models abstract state dependent pricing sdp models treat the timing of price changes as a profit maximizing choice symmetrically with other decisions of firms using quantitative general equilibrium models which incorporate a generalized s s approach we investigate the implications of sdp for topics in two major areas of macroeconomic research the early 1990s sdp literature and more recent work on persistence mechanisms first we show that state dependent pricing leads to unusual macroeconomic dynamics which occur because of the timing of price adjustments chosen by firms as in the earlier literature in particular we display an example in which output responses peak at about a year while inflation responses peak at about 2 years after the shock second we examine whether the persistence enhancing effects of two new keynesian model features namely specific factor markets and variable elasticity demand curves depend importantly on whether pricing is state dependent in an sdp setting we provide examples in which specific factor markets perversely work to lower persistence while variable elasticity demand raises it

aggregate stochastic implications of the life cycle hypothesis this paper sets forth some key aggregate stochastic implications of the modigliani brumberg 1980 life cycle hypothesis and explores the extent to which a properly aggregated life cycle model can help to explain the first and second moment properties of changes in per capita consumption the principal finding of the paper which to my knowledge is new is that smooth per capita consumption in the presence of permanent shocks to per capital labor income is exactly the outcome one should expect from a properly aggregated life cycle model in which saving for retirement as well as for consumption smoothing is a motive for asset accumulation

menu costs and phillips curves this paper develops a model of a monetary economy in which individual firms are subject to idiosyncratic productivity shocks as well as general inflation sellers can change price only by incurring a real menu cost we calibrate this cost and the variance and autocorrelation of the idiosyncratic shock using a new u s data set of individual prices due to klenow and kryvtsov the prediction of the calibrated model for the effects of high inflation on the frequency of price changes accords well with international evidence from various studies the model is also used to conduct numerical experiments on the economy s response to various shocks in none of the simulations we conducted did monetary shocks induce large or persistent real responses

finite horizons life cycle savings and time series evidence on consumption abstract this paper develops an explicitly aggregated life cycle model which allows for finite horizons and declining individual labor supply the model can generate a common upward trend in aggregate consumption labor income and nonhuman wealth without relinquishing hall s random walk at the micro level life cycle factors are shown to imply that consumption changes should be a predictable and b smoother than in the infinite horizon model econometric evidence using postwar u s data suggests that neither consumption s predictability nor its excess smoothness can be fully accounted for by life cycle considerations

in kind benefits and household behavior the impact of snap on food away from home consumption abstract supplemental nutrition assistance program snap formerly known as the food stamp program provides in kind benefits that can generally be utilized for food at home fah only according to economic theory snap benefits are fungible with cash for inframarginal households which may allow participants to spend benefits on non fah items however empirical evidence for this theory is mixed this paper exploits an underutilized source of state level variation the early 2000 s recession to determine the impact of snap participation on household food away from home fafh consumption in a difference in difference framework i compare households in high post recession snap growth states to households in low post recession snap growth states the results show that snap participation causes a significant decrease in fafh expenditure and fafh s share of total food expenditure

habits and heterogeneity in demands a panel data analysis we examine demand behaviour for intertemporal dependencies using spanishpanel data we present evidence that there is both state dependence and correlatedheterogeneity in demand behaviour our specific findings are that food outside thehome alcohol and tobacco are habit forming whereas clothing and small durablesexhibit durability we conclude that demand analyses using cross section data thatignore these effects may be seriously biased on the other hand the degree ofintertemporal dependence is not sufficiently strong to make composite consumption significantly habit forming as has been suggested in some recent analyses

habit formation in consumption and its implications for monetary policy models this paper explores a monetary policy model with habit formation for consumers in which consumers utility depends in part on current consumption relative to past consumption the empirical tests developed in the paper show that one can reject the hypothesis of no habit formation with tremendous condence largely because the habit formation model captures the gradual hump shaped response of real spending to various shocks the paper then embeds the habit consumption specication in a monetary policy model and nds that the responses of both spending and inflation to monetary policy actions are signicantly improved by this modication jel d12 e52 e43

equilibrium in a market with sequential bargaining this paper considers a market where pairs of agents who are interested in carrying out a transaction are brought together by a stochastic process and upon meeting initiate a bargaining process over the terms of the transaction the basic bargaining problem is treated with the strategic approach the paper derives the steady state equilibrium agreements analyzes their dependence on market conditions such as the relative numbers of agents of different types and discusses their relations with the competitive equilibrium outcome and other results in the search equilibrium literature this paper considers a market that operates in the following way pairs of agents who have mutual interest in carrying out a transaction are brought together by a stochastic process when two agents meet they initiate a bargaining process over the terms of the transaction if two agents reach an agreement a transaction takes place and they leave the market of course the bargaining positions and hence the agreement reached in any particular meeting will be affected by the conditions prevailing in the market these will include the chances that each of the negotiating parties have of meeting other partners in the event that the agreement in the current negotiations is delayed also the expected length of time required to achieve an alternative transaction and the expected behavior of alternative partners the study of such a market mechanism is of interest for two reasons firstly it captures some realistic aspects of the trade in certain specific markets e g asset markets such as housing and some labor markets secondly it contributes to an understanding of the micro mechanisms of price formation and their role in shaping market outcomes in both cases the features studied are largely neglected in the traditional market equilibrium analyses the related literature includes the articles by diamond 4 5 diamond and maskin 6 mortensen 8 9 and zusman and bell 13 these articles consider markets of the type described above in which transactions are concluded at pairwise meetings of agents the major difference between our work and these articles is in the approach to the basic bargaining problem in the cited articles it is assumed that a meeting is concluded with an instantaneous agreement which divides the associated surplus in an arbitrary predetermined way when the surplus is assumed to be divided equally the division rule is in fact nash s axiomatic bargaining solution in contrast the present paper treats the basic bargaining problem with the strategic approach see rubinstein 19 which constitutes an attempt to look into the bargaining black box this approach explicitly models the time dimension of the bargaining process describes in detail the bargaining procedure and justifies the agreement as a perfect equilibrium in

the habit of giving i introduction habit formation is thought to exert great influence on behavior it has been proffered as a potential answer to questions as disparate as the size of the equity premium abel 1990 optimal purchases of insurance ben arab briys and schlesinger 1996 labor force participation woittiez and kapteyn 1998 the relationship between savings and growth rates carroll overland and well 2000 responsiveness to monetary policy fuhrer 2000 the importance of brand loyalty gupta chintagunta and wittink 1997 and the existence of a gateway effect between alcohol and illegal drug use pacula 1998 yet there is scant discussion in the economics literature about long term habit forming most studies focus on shorter term intertemporal relationships like changes in annual consumption see inter alia naik and moore 1996 dynan 2002 carrasco labeaga and lopez salido 2005 the importance of early influences on later risk taking malmendier and nagel 2007 and motivations for purchasing different goods portolese dias 2004 has been hypothesized yet there is little direct evidence on the long term impact of shocks to behavior early in life particularly in the way that preferences form and evolve one recent exception is the study of bronnenberg dube and gentzkow 2010 who use variation in consumers previous states of residence to show that early exposure to particular brands of package goods affects purchasing behavior decades later charities in particular care about building relationships with their donors and expend a great deal of effort in the pursuit of small gifts with the expectation that they may lead to larger gifts in the future universities seem to be convinced that this strategy is effective and with 8 7 billion raised from alumni in 2008 the stakes are high council for aid to education 2009 the dean of alumni affairs at columbia university stated that it isn t about the dollars and that the purpose of getting young alumni to donate is to create a habit of giving durkin 2005 fundraising professionals agree one consultant explained i would never say that a small gift is not important because it s building that relationship if you don t build those relationships today you may not have their interest when the day comes that they can give those 101 million donations westmoreland 2008 this sentiment was echoed by an expert on senior class giving at the council for advancement and support of education who explained that the goal of these programs is not to raise money but to begin a pattern of behavior ensign 2010 there is scant evidence that this belief is justified while a number of studies have documented a positive correlation between giving when young and giving when older see monks 2003 turner meserve and bowen 2001 this may be driven by a number of factors that have nothing to do with building a relationship this correlation may actually represent spurious state dependence that arises from unobserved heterogeneity like the alumnus s affinity for the school this is contrasted with true state dependence in which a donation in one period affects preferences for donating in a later period while participation rates are a factor in university rankings it seems evident that development officials assume that habit forming in charitable contributions exists and justifies the pursuit of small gifts when alumni are young with the expectation that this will lead to larger gifts in the future these beliefs hinge on the idea that a habit can form by the simple act of making a gift and that the amount given is possibly irrelevant in essence the proponents of this idea believe that giving regularly when young will cause the individual to be in a state of focus for giving when older willing to make a larger gift perhaps because they are accustomed to giving to the charity in each year standard models of habit forming in which the amount given in an earlier period affects a stock variable and the individual incurs disutility from deviating from this level do not account for this phenomenon

inflation and output dynamics with state dependent pricing decisions this paper studies a state dependent pricing model in which firms face a fixed cost of changing their pricing plans a pricing plan specifies an entire sequence of time varying future prices allowing firms to choose a pricing plan rather than a single price generates inflation inertia in the response of the economy to small changes in the growth rate of money allowing firms to choose when to change their pricing plan generates a non linear response of inflation and output to small and large changes in the money growth rate the non linear solution method also reveals that the model generates an asymmetric response of output and inflation to monetary expansions and contractions

habit formation and the present value model of the current account yet another suspect abstract in a recent paper gruber gruber j w 2004 a present value test of habits and the current account journal of monetary economics 51 1495 1507 claims that habit formation in consumption plays an important role in current account fluctuations in selected developed countries extending the present value model of the current account pvm with consumption habits in this paper however i show that the habit forming pvm is observationally equivalent to the pvm augmented with persistent transitory consumption which is induced by world real interest rate shocks based on a small open economy real business cycle soe rbc model endowed with consumption habits as well as persistent world real interest rate shocks this paper resolves the inherent identification problem of the habit forming pvm by bayesian methods to seek effects of habit formation on current account fluctuations in typical small open economies canada and the united kingdom results reveal no clear evidence that habit formation plays a crucial role in current account fluctuations

habit formation in a monetary growth model abstract this paper introduces the hypothesis of habit formation in consumption in the sidrauski am econ rev papers proc 57 1967 534 model a number of results are derived 1 as in the sidrauski model money is superneutral and the friedman rule still provides the optimal quantity of money 2 the demand for money in this model is greater than in the sidrauski model 3 the money demand reflects the habit persistence related to past consumption and the rate of time preference and it is more sensitive to changes in inflation and nominal interest rates than the sidrauski model

loss aversion in a consumption savings model abstract we propose a model of consumption and saving based on kahneman and tversky s prospect theory that implies a fundamental asymmetry in consumption behavior inconsistent with other models of consumption when there is sufficient income uncertainty a person resists lowering consumption in response to bad news about future income this resistance is greater than the resistance to increasing consumption in response to good news we present empirical evidence from five countries that confirms this behavior

the producer welfare effects of trade liberalization when goods are perishable and habit forming the case of asparagus asparagus is a perishable highly seasonal crop we find that out of season imports of asparagus caused habit formation that increased demand in the u s growing seasons we find that habit effects offset about 64 of the welfare losses to u s asparagus producers from increased mexican imports under nafta and all of the u s producer welfare losses from increased peruvian imports under the andean trade preference act we estimate that the u s producer welfare losses from nafta are less than the annualized value of market loss assistance provided them in the 2008 farm bill jel classifications d12 f130 q17 q18

unemployment the market for interviews and wage determination a model of equilibrium unemployment and vacancies is presented in which the absence of a market for interviews can yield externalities and inefficiency inefficiency results in market forces that lead firms to charge fees for interviews or to change the wage rate these market forces require substantial information and may not operate a graphical analysis shows how such forces would cause wages to adjust to shifts in supply taxes and transfers between workers and firms with excessive unemployment efficiency requires a transfer of income from workers to firms

a model of housing in the presence of adjustment costs a structural interpretation of habit persistence building on the model of sanford j grossman and guy laroque 1990 this paper provides a model of household consumption and portfolio allocation which incorporates the role of housing as both a consumption good and as a component of wealth the model captures the following features of the household s problem a utility depends probably nonseparably on two distinct goods nondurable consumption and housing b nondurable consumption can be adjusted cost lessly but housing is subject to an adjustment cost c households face housing price risk in the sense that the relative price of housing varies over time and d in addition to the house the household can invest in a wide variety of financial assets this single reasonably tractable model generates testable implications for portfolio allocation risk aversion asset pricing and the dynamics of nondurable consumption because the original grossman and laroque model considers a utility function in which the durable good is the sole argument and thus abstracts completely from nondurable consump tion their analysis cannot address either the potential spillover effects of the adjustment costs of the durable good on the dynamics of nondurable consumption or the implications for portfolio allocation of housing risk arising from variation in the relative price of housing in addition to generating implications for issues on which the original grossman and laroque model was silent the housing model delivers a strikingly different message concerning asset pricing that is in contrast to the grossman and laroque result that the consumption based capital asset pricing model consumption capm fails the housing model implies that the consumptioncapm holds we assume that the household incurs an adjustment cost when altering the holding of the dura ble good or house although financial assets can be bought and sold costlessly consumption of the nondurable good can also be adjusted costlessly when choosing a new house the consumer takes into account the fact that the consumption of housing services will be constant at the new level until the subsequent stopping time when it is again worthwhile to incur the adjustment cost thus the home purchase decision is endogenous and fully rational but because of the adjustment cost infrequent in this continuous time setting the household s decision process has a recursive structure at each instant the household first decides whether it is optimal to sell the house immediately on those rare occasions that it is optimal to incur the adjustment cost the household sells the old house and buys a new one instantaneously if the household decides that it is not optimal to sell the house immediately it then determines its optimal holdings of financial assets and optimal level of nondurable consumption conditional on the current housing stock in essence because of the adjustment costs associated with the durable good the current

information aggregation bias aggregation in the presence of data processing lags distorts the information content of data violating orthogonality restrictions that hold at the individual level though the phenomenon is general it is illustrated here for the life cycle permanent income model cross section and pooled panel data induce information aggregation bias akin to that in aggregate time series calculations show that information aggregation can seriously bias tests of the life cycle model on aggregate time series cross section and pooled panel data copyright 1992 by american economic association

inequality and convergence in europe s regions reconsidering european regional policies europe s regions income disparities and regional policies in this paper we take a critical look at current european regional policies first we document the motivation for such policies that is the large income disparities across the regions of the eu15 large disparities are certainly present second we illustrate the various instruments adopted and discuss their underpinnings in established economic theories next we look at available data searching for three kinds of evidence 1 if disparities are either growing or decreasing we conclude they are neither 2 which are the major factors explaining such disparities and in particular if they are the factors predicted by the economic models adopted by the commission to justify current policies we conclude this is most certainly not the case 3 if there are clear signs that eu policies as opposed to other social and economic factors are actually reducing such disparities we cannot find any clear sign of such desired impact our conclusion is that regional and structural policies serve mostly a redistributional purpose motivated by the nature of the political equilibria upon which the european union is built they have little relationship with fostering economic growth this casts a serious doubt on their social value and furthermore strongly questions extending such policies to future members of the european union a successful eu enlargement in our view calls for an immediate and drastic revision of regional economic policies michele boldrin and fabio canova

does income polarization affect economic growth the case of the european regions ezcurra r does income polarization affect economic growth the case of the european regions regional studies this paper examines the relationship between income polarization and economic growth in the regions of the european union over the period 1993 2003 the results indicate that the level of income polarization is negatively associated with regional growth this finding is in fact robust to various alternative specifications including a number of additional explanatory variables such as initial per capita gross domestic product industry mix human capital stock population density or market potential furthermore it should be noted that the observed negative correlation between polarization and economic performance does not depend on the number of groups used to analyse the degree of income stratification within the sample regions ezcurra r la polarisation des revenus affecte t elle la croissance economique le cas des regions europeennes regional studies cet article etudie les relations en

job vacancy rates in the firm an empirical analysis this paper presents some evidence on the magnitudes and determinants of job vacancy rates in us firms based on data from a survey in 1980 and 1982 the results show low overall vacancy rates but substantial variation across firms occupations industries and local areas local unemployment unionization and employer size have negative effects on vacancy rates while turnover and sales growth have positive effects the results are generally consistent with the predictions of job matching models

why is consumption so smooth for thirty years it has been accepted that consumption is smooth because permanent income is smoother than measured income this paper considers the evidence for the contrary position that permanent income is in fact less smooth than measured income so that the smoothness of consumption cannot be straightforwardly explained by permanent income theory the paper argues that in postwar u s quarterly data consumption is smooth because it responds with a lag to changes in income

a superior measure of consumption from the panel study of income dynamics abstract this paper provides a simple technique for assigning a measure of total consumption to households in the panel study of income dynamics psid using regressions from the consumer expenditure surveys of 1972 1973 and 1983 linear predictions of total consumption are estimated which are stable over time and explain up to 78 percent of the total variance in consumption

a present value test of habits and the current account abstract forecasts derived from standard intertemporal current account ica models generally fail to match the volatility of actual current accounts this paper offers a solution to the excess volatility problem of standard ica models by incorporating consumption habits into the standard model the model as developed in the paper shows that significant habit formation implies increased current account volatility as sluggishness is introduced into the consumption adjustment process that follows income shocks a theory consistent measure of the degree of habit formation is estimated using gmm the estimated habit parameter is found to be statistically significant in six of eight quarterly samples

unemployment labour markets and structural change in eastern europe labour markets in eastern europe michael burda unemployment is a major concern in the transforming economies of central and eastern europe the modern flow approach to labour markets suggests both that unemployment is an important component of the transformation process and that the labour market institutions adopted will influence the rate of unemployment in the long run to date eastern european countries exhibit considerable divergences in several of these institutions especially in unemployment benefit systems collective bargaining structures and active labour market policies an aggregate matching function is successfully estimated for data from czech and slovak employment offices emerging labour markets in the east function not so differently from those in the west the implied dynamics make both big bang and benign neglect unattractive strategies for transformation a mixed bang is more appropriate quantitative evidence about the effects on unemployment of different labour market institutions in oecd countries is used to make long term projections of equilibrium rates of unemployment in central and eastern europe given the labour market institutions now in place there with the possible exception of the czech republic high unemployment is likely to be pervasive and persistent

measuring intertemporal substitution the importance of method choices and selective reporting i examine 2 735 estimates of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption eis reported in 169 published studies the literature shows strong selective reporting researchers discard negative and insignicant estimates too often which pulls the mean estimate up by about 0 5 the reporting bias dwarfs the effects of methods with the exception of the choice between micro and macro data when i correct the mean for the bias for macro estimates i get zero even though the reported t statistics are on average two the corrected mean of micro estimates of the eis for asset holders is around 0 3 0 4 calibrations greater than 0 8 are inconsistent with the bulk of the empirical evidence jel e21 c83

risk aversion and planning horizons a number of empirical studies seem to reject the additive separability of preferences that is assumed in most theoretical models of the life cycle we show that when additive separability is abandoned and interactions between consumptions at different dates are taken into account an interesting relation emerges between risk aversion and length of the planning horizon specifically we show that when consumptions at different dates are specific substitutes risk aversion increases with horizon length this may explain the surprising empirical finding that individuals seem to increase the share of wealth held in risky assets as they become older jel d11 d91 g11

consumption externalities habit formation and equilibrium efficiency we analyze the welfare properties of the competitive equilibrium in a capital accumulation model where individual preferences are subject to both habit formation and consumption spillovers using an additive specification for preferences according to which the argument in the utility function is a linear combination of present and past values of own consumption and consumption spillovers we analyze the circumstances under which these spillovers are a source of inefficiency it is shown that consumption externalities have to interact with habits in order to generate an inefficient dynamic equilibrium finally we characterize optimal tax policies aimed at restoring efficient decentralized paths

individual income incomplete information and aggregate consumption individual income is much more variable than aggregate per capita income i argue that aggregate information is therefore not very important for individual consumption decisions and study models of life cycle consumption in which individuals react optimally to their own income process but have incomplete or no information on economy wide variables since individual income is less persistent than aggregate income consumers will react too little to aggregate income variation aggregate consumption will be excessively smooth since aggregate information is slowly incorporated into consumption aggregate consumption will be autocorrelated and correlated with lagged income on the other hand the model has the same prediction for micro data as the standard permanent income model the second part of the paper provides empirical evidence on individual and aggregate income processes different models for individual income are fit to quarterly data from the survey of income and program participation making various adjustments for measurement error calibrating the consumption model using the estimated parameters for the income process yields predictions which qualitatively correspond to the empirical findings for aggregate consumption but do not match them well in magnitude

between development and social policies the impact of european structural funds in objective 1 regions rodriguez pose a and fratesi u 2004 between development and social policies the impact of european structural funds in objective 1 regions reg studies 38 97 113 european regional support has grown in parallel with european integration the funds targeted at achieving greater economic and social cohesion and reducing disparities within the european union eu have more than doubled in relative terms since the end of the 1980s making development policies the second most important policy area in the eu the majority of the development funds have been earmarked for objective 1 regions i e regions where gdp per capita is below the 75 threshold of the eu average however the european development policies have come under increasing criticism based on two facts the lack of upward mobility of assisted regions and the absence of regional convergence this paper assesses using cross sectional and panel data analyses the failure so far of european development policies to fulfil their objective of de

why isn t growth making us happier utility on the hedonic treadmill abstract a preference structure is constructed grounded in psychological evidence with well being a function of the consumption level and the growth of the variety of goods consumed such preferences are analyzed in an endogenous variety growth model the implications are consistent with the increase in income and the variety of goods consumed in developed economies in the post war period that have not been accompanied by an increase in reported well being moreover the results suggest a connection between the stagnancy of reported well being and diminishing returns in technological change despite an increase in the variety of goods available over time

should we test the life cycle permanent income hypothesis with food consumption data abstract most household consumption studies use food consumption data i show that in aggregate data one cannot reject the life cycle hypothesis using food but can reject it using other goods existing micro tests of the life cycle hypothesis thus may have low power

a simple test of consumption insurance are consumers effectively insured against idiosyncratic shocks to income or wealth either by formal institutions such as charities private insurance and government programs or by informal mechanisms such as gifts and loans from relatives friends and neighbors under full insurance consumption growth should be cross sectionally independent of idiosyncratic variables that are exogenous to consumers this proposition is tested by cross sectional regressions of consumption growth on a variety of exogenous variables full insurance is rejected for long illness and involuntary job loss but not for spells of unemployment loss of work due to strike and an involuntary move

current account dynamics under information rigidity and imperfect capital mobility abstract the current account in developed countries is highly persistent and volatile in comparison to their output growth the standard intertemporal current account model with rational expectations re fails to explain the observed current account and consumption dynamics the re model extended with imperfect capital mobility by shibata and shintani 1998 can account for the consumption dynamics but only at the cost of the explanatory power for the volatility of the current account this paper replaces re in the intertemporal current account model with sticky information si in which consumers are inattentive to shocks to their income the si model can better explain a persistent and volatile current account than the re model but it overpredicts the persistence of changes in consumption the si model extended with imperfect capital mobility explains both the current account and consumption provided that sufficiently high degrees of information rigidity and imperfect capital mobility are considered

asset pricing with multiplicative habit and power expo preferences abstract multiplicative habit introduces an additional consumption risk as a determinant of the equity premium and allows time preference and habit strength in addition to risk aversion to affect the price of risk a model combining multiplicative habit and power expo preferences cannot be rejected

theorizing regional economic performance and the changing territorial division of labour dunford m 2003 theorizing regional economic performance and the changing territorial division of labour reg studies 37 839 854 after identifying the general mechanisms underling the centripetal and centrifugal forces whose interplay shapes the relative performance of regional economies a case is made for disaggregating macroeconomic indicators and examining the sectoral and occupational changes they conceal once regional performance is seen as reflecting underling changes in the profiles of regional economies it is clear that research should examine the forces that determine the changing territorial division of labour to explain the latter a conceptual framework is presented this framework combines value chain approaches to the strategies of individual enterprises and analyses of the impact on the performance of enterprises of their wider social environment explicit links are established between this framework and some of the insights of the new economic geography dunford m 2003 la theor

the politics and economics of offshore outsourcing abstract this paper reviews the political uproar over offshore outsourcing connected with the release of the economic report of the president erp in february 2004 examines the differing ways in which economists and non economists talk about offshore outsourcing and assesses the empirical evidence on the importance of offshore outsourcing in accounting for the weak labor market from 2001 to 2004 even with important gaps in the data the empirical literature is able to conclude that offshore outsourcing is unlikely to have accounted for a meaningful part of the job losses in the recent downturn or contributed much to the slow labor market rebound the empirical evidence to date while still tentative actually suggests that increased employment in the overseas affiliates of us multinationals is associated with more employment in the us parent rather than less

rational habit formation abstract this paper discusses consumer demand under rational habit formation if consumer tastes change endogenously through habit stocks depending on past consumption the rational consumer will make allowance of the future habit forming effects of current consumption a model with rational habit formation is made formally equivalent to an intertemporal consumer model without habit formation by redefining the cost of consumption and wealth the cost of consumption is obtained by adding the cost of future induced consumption to the rental price of the commodity the extended wealth concept is obtained by subtracting the cost of the initial stocks of habits and the cost of future physically necessary consumption from wealth the paper also investigates the implication of rational habit formation for constructing one period cost of living indices

non separable time preferences novelty consumption and body weight theory and evidence from the east german transition to capitalism abstract this paper develops a dynamic model to illustrate how diet and body weight change when novel food products become available to consumers we propose a microfounded test to empirically discriminate between habit and taste formation in intertemporal preferences moreover we show that novelty consumption and endogenous preferences can explain the persistent correlation between economic development and obesity by empirically studying the german reunification we find that east germans consumed more novel western food and gained more weight than west germans when a larger variety of food products became readily accessible after the fall of the wall the observed consumption patterns suggest that food consumption features habit formation

generalized method of moments and macroeconomics we consider the contribution to the analysis of economic time series of the generalized method of moments estimator introduced by hansen we outline the theoretical contribution conduct a small scale literature survey and discuss some ongoing theoretical research

does relative risk aversion vary with wealth evidence from households portfolio choice data we analyze whether relative risk aversion varies with wealth we first derive theoretical predictions on how risky shares respond to wealth fluctuations in a portfolio choice model with both external habits and time varying labor income our analytical results indicate that 1 for each household there are two channels through which the risky share responds to wealth fluctuations the habit channel and the income channel 2 across households there are heterogeneous responses through the habit channel those who experience large negative income shocks reduce their share of risky assets and 3 two potential mis identification problems arise when both the heterogeneity in responses through the habit channel and the income channel are ignored we then test the theoretical predictions with data from the panel study of income dynamics contrary to the existing literature our empirical results show evidence of relative risk aversion varying with wealth over time after correcting those two mis identification problems

efficient unemployment insurance this paper constructs a tractable general equilibrium model of search with risk aversion an increase in risk aversion reduces wages unemployment and investment unemployment insurance has the opposite effect insured workers seek high wage jobs with high unemployment risk an economy with risk neutral workers achieves maximal output without any unemployment insurance but an economy with risk averse workers requires a positive level of unemployment insurance to maximize output therefore moderate unemployment insurance not only improves risk sharing but also increases output

household portfolio choice and retirement this study examines household portfolio choice through the retirement transition i show that couples significantly decrease their stock allocations after retirement whereas singles allocations remain relatively unchanged reallocations are concentrated among couples in which the wife is more risk averse than her husband husbands and wives respective retirement events are followed by opposite signed changes in stock allocations these findings are consistent with a model of collective household decision making in which spouses have heterogeneous risk preferences and suggest that dynamics in the distribution of intrahousehold bargaining power generate time varying household risk aversion

outsourcing in a global economy we study the determinants of the location of subcontracted activity in a general equilibrium model of outsourcing and trade we model outsourcing as an activity that requires search for a partner and relationship specific investments that are governed by incomplete contracts the extent of international outsourcing depends inter alia on the thickness of the domestic and foreign market for input suppliers the relative cost of searching in each market the relative cost of customizing inputs and the nature of the contracting environment in each country

employment cycles in search equilibrium abstract in this paper i present a stochastic dynamic model of the labor market in which workers search for job openings and firms for job candidates i derive the existence of two stable steady states which give rise to stochastic cycles the interaction of a productivity shock with the presence of two stable steady states generates equilibrium fluctuations in employment which are not optimal a weak convergence approximation technique is used in order to characterize the behavior of a nonlinear stochastic difference equation describing the equilibrium dynamics of the economy

state dependent pricing and the general equilibrium dynamics of money and output economists have long suggested that nominal product prices are changed infrequently because of fixed costs in such a setting optimal price adjustment should depend on the state of the economy yet while widely discussed statedependent pricing has proved difficult to incorporate into macroeconomic models this paper develops a new tractable theoretical state dependent pricing framework we use it to study how optimal pricing depends on the persistence of monetary shocks the elasticities of labor supply and goods demand and the interest sensitivity of money demand

the permanent income hypothesis and the real interest rate some evidence from panel data abstract a test of the permanent income hypothesis in panel data is formulated taking into account both the time series and cross section variation in the rate of return the over identifying restrictions of the theory rejected

price and income elasticities of demand for passenger transport fuels in spain implications for public policies abstract the significant increase in passenger transport activity cars experienced by spain and its associated increase in energy consumption have several associated negative aspects including a greater dependence on foreign energy sources and higher ghg emissions therefore reducing the level of transport activity would bring important socioeconomic and environmental benefits the aim of this paper which focuses on energy consumption in the passenger transport is fourfold 1 to provide a diagnostic of energy consumption in the spanish passenger transport system and the related problems 2 to develop a model to calculate price and income elasticities of demand for transport fuel 3 to apply this model to the spanish passenger transport sector 4 to infer policy recommendations derived from the results of the diagnostic and the model it is claimed that in view of those low price elasticities and high income elasticities and if a reduction in the scale of transport activity is deemed socially desirable a combination of instruments is necessary fuel taxes play an important role within this combination apart from their long term effects the low price elasticity of demand for transport fuel would allow the collection of a significant amount of revenues which could eventually be earmarked to encourage reductions in private transport demand and modal shifts with other instruments

energy use and temperature habituation evidence from high frequency thermostat usage data using micro level thermostat data from 27 000 u s households we analyze how home heating cooling decisions respond to weather responses are greater for extreme heat than for extreme cold and persist for at least 30 days after exposure due in part to transaction costs but also to changes in intrinsic preferences failure to understand habit can lead us to overestimate the impact of short term policy nudges but underestimate the long run impact of small changes higher frequency estimates of how behavior responds to weather improve our understanding of climate adaptation as climate change affects not only mean temperatures but also variances jel c55 d03 q4

relative concerns for consumption at the top an intertemporal analysis for the uk abstract this paper investigates whether the consumption of rich households provides a reference point in the intertemporal consumption choices of non rich households using uk household data on food consumption we estimate the euler equation implied by a life cycle model incorporating relative concerns for the consumption of rich households according to both our ols and gmm estimates for the population of non rich households as a whole there is no evidence of such relative concerns we also examine an alternative model of relative concerns in which households overconsume when exposed to higher reference group consumption and find correlational evidence that this may be the case for food consumed away from home finally we investigate the presence of heterogeneous relative concerns across county and household characteristics in both models finding evidence of relative concerns for consumption at the top in counties with relatively low income inequality this mechanism seems to operate for food consumed away from home

the permanent income hypothesis and consumption durability analysis based on japanese panel data the permanent income hypothesis with durability of commodities is tested on a panel of about 2 000 japanese households for several commodity groups under static expectations about real interest rates and for some class of utility functions consumption which is a distributed lag function of current and past expenditure follows a martingale main empirical results are i the durability of commodities usually classified as services is substantial ii the hypothesis applies to about 85 percent of the population consisting of wage earners and iii income changes explain only a small fraction of the movements in expenditure