optimal management of renewable resources with growing demand and stock externalities abstract in an equilibrium framework optimal management of renewable resources in the presence of growing demand or externalities leads to steady states that differ from those characterized by rate of interest equals rate of change in growth plus rate of change in prices measures to reach an optimum with externalities other than direct controls are found to be critically mediated by the costs of harvesting

tariff effects on mnc decisions to engage in intra firm and arm s length trade using confidential firm level data from the bureau of economic analysis bea on activities of u s multinational corporations mncs and their canadian affiliates we study the dramatic growth of intra firm and arm s length u s canada trade over the 1984 95 period we find that decisions to engage in intra firm and arm s length trade are essentially unrelated to tariff and transport cost reductions over this sample period thus we find that the increase in trade occurred almost entirely on the intensive rather than the extensive margin this is consistent with case study evidence in keane and feinberg 2006 where mnc executives consistently indicate that the modest tariff reductions of the 1984 95 period were not sufficient to justify fixed costs of overhauling international supply chains our results have important implications for recent influential models of international trade that rely on sensitivity of intra firm trade to tariffs at the extensive margin to explain how small tariff declines could have led to the explosion of intra firm trade since the 1980s we also find that initial conditions i e 1983 tariffs are uncorrelated with whether firms engaged in intra firm or arm s length trade activity at the start of the sample period this result is surprising as it implies that firms industries with a greater propensity to engage in trade were not in general successful at lobbying for more favourable tariff treatment a l aide de donnees confidentielles au niveau de la firme du bureau of economic analysis bea a propos des activites des firmes plurinationales fpn americaines et de leurs succursales canadiennes on etudie la croissance dramatique du commerce usa canada tant intra firme qu a bout de bras pour la periode 1984 95 il appert que les decisions de s engager dans l un et l autre commerce sont fondamentalement non reliees aux reductions des couts de transport et des tarifs au cours de cette periode on decouvre que l accroissement du commerce s est produit presqu entierement a la marge intensive plutot qu a la marge extensive c est en ligne avec les resultats de l etude de cas de keane et feinberg 2006 ou les cadres des fpn ont systematiquement indique que les modestes reductions de tarifs entre 1984 et 1995 n etaient pas suffisantes pour justifier les couts fixes impliques par la modification de leurs chaines de production internationales ces resultats ont des implications importantes pour certains modeles influents de commerce international qui sont ancres dans une sensibilite du commerce intra firme aux tarifs a la marge extensive pour expliquer comment de faibles chutes de tarifs ont pu engendrer une explosion du commerce intra firme depuis les annees 80 on montre aussi que les conditions initiales e g les tarifs de 1983 ne sont pas co reliees avec le fait que la firme est engagee ou non dans l un ou l autre commerce en debut de periode le resultat est surprenant parce qu il implique que firmes et industries ayant une plus grande propension a commercer n ont pas eu de succes dans leur lobby pour obtenir un traitement tarifaire plus favorable

when is external debt sustainable the article empirically examines the determinants of debt distress defined as periods in which countries resort to any of three forms of exceptional finance significant arrears on external debt paris club rescheduling and non concessional international monetary fund lending probit regressions show that three factors explain a substantial fraction of the cross country and time series variation in the incidence of debt distress the debt burden the quality of policies and institutions and shocks the relative importance of these factors varies with the level of development these results are robust to a variety of alternative specifications and the core specifications have substantial out of sample predictive power the quantitative implications of these results are examined for the lending strategies of official creditors

the spatial and temporal diffusion of house prices in the uk abstract this paper provides a method for the analysis of the spatial and temporal diffusion of shocks in a dynamic system we use changes in real house prices within the uk economy at the level of regions to illustrate its use adjustment to shocks involves both a region specific and a spatial effect shocks to a dominant region london are propagated contemporaneously and spatially to other regions they in turn impact on other regions with a delay we allow for lagged effects to echo back to the dominant region london in turn is influenced by international developments through its link to new york and other financial centers it is shown that new york house prices have a direct effect on london house prices we analyse the effect of shocks using generalised spatio temporal impulse responses these highlight the diffusion of shocks both over time as with the conventional impulse responses and over space

β convergence and the cyclical dynamics of uk regional house prices the potential convergence of regional house prices in the uk is examined in contrast to the existing literature which focuses upon stochastic convergence the present paper considers alternative f

differing house price linkages across uk regions a multi dimensional recursive ripple model the aim of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship between house prices of different types of housing across the uk regions we use an autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach to determine the long run relationships between house prices as well as an error correction model to estimate the short run dynamics between house prices the data include house prices across the regions of great britain and for new old and modern houses the results suggest that house price shocks ripple across regions although the nature of the relationship varies across housing types we further simulate the impact of house price shocks and reveal a complex structure whereby a house price shock in region a impacts upon prices in other regions which in turn feedback into region a in a recursive ripple

entry into pharmaceutical submarkets a bayesian panel probit analysis summary we study entry into pharmaceutical submarkets by using a dynamic panel probit model we develop a bayesian version of wooldridge s approach to dealing with unobserved heterogeneity we distinguish between greenfield entry entry with first product and undifferentiated entry which may take the form of introducing further products we extend the standard reduced form model to consider company size in the submarket and across all submarkets we find that greenfield and undifferentiated entries have different determinants that global and submarket size measures have different effects and that sunk costs often have positive effects on entry due to a commitment mechanism copyright 2012 john wiley sons ltd

uncertainty in the theory of renewable resource markets the natural growth rate of most renewable resource stocks is in part stochastic this paper examines the implications of such ecological uncertainty for competitive equilibrium in a market with property rights we show that stochastic fluctuations add a risk premium to the rate of return required to keep a unit of stock in situ and we examine the effects of fluctuations on resource rent examples are used to show that extraction can increase decrease or be left unchanged as the variance of the fluctuations increases depending on the extent of market self correction regulatory implications are also discussed renewable resource economics has traditionally been concerned with the study of dynamically optimal harvesting policies given a deterministic function for the natural growth of the resource stock issues have included the existence and characteristics of steady state equilibria for the optimally managed resource the need for and design of regulatory policies to prevent over exploitation and conditions under which as a social optimum or otherwise the resource will be exploited to extinction 1 much of this work has been based on the assumption of a fixed and exogenous price for the harvested resource typically resulting in bang bang solutions for the harvesting policy however some recent papers make price endogenous and thereby describe how the extraction rate and the rate of return and asset value of the resource behave in a competitive market with property rights 2

ripple effects in south african house prices this paper analyses the ripple effect of house prices in large medium and small sized houses of five major metropolitan areas of south africa namely cape town durban unicity greater johannesburg port elizabeth uitenhage and pretoria based on available quarterly data covering the period of 1966 q1 to 2010 q1 following the extant literature the issue is contextualised as a unit root problem with one expecting the ratios of metropolitan house price to national house price to exhibit stationarity to an underlying trend value if there is diffusion in house prices using bayesian and non linear unit root tests besides the standard linear tests of stationarity with and without structural break overwhelming support is found for the existence of robust ripple effects also factor analysis conducted suggested that ripple effects originate in cape town for the large housing segment and in durban for the medium and small sized houses

unemployment persistence is there evidence for stigma effects we present evidence for a highly significant interaction between state dependence in individual unemployment risk and the business cycle the disadvantage from having been unemployed in the previous period is smaller in times of relatively high unemployment and larger in times of low unemployment this is consistent with the existence of stigma effects in the sense that unemployed individuals face difficulties finding a new job because employers interpret unemployment as a negative signal and do so especially when it is easier to find jobs i e when unemployment is low

optimal growth resource amenities and the preservation of natural environments this paper examines the conditions for which it is optimal to permanently preserve natural environments in which a productive natural resource is found the conditions are more restrictive than those previously indicated in the literature on the economics of natural environments increasing consumption and declining commodity prices are not sufficient to warrant permanent preservation the initial capital stock can be an important determinant of the optimal level of preservation in addition resource amenity values will increase the initial resource price and decrease the rate of growth of the resource price the natural world provides a variety of services to the human community natural resources are essential inputs in the production of goods and services in addition the natural world generates a variety of amenity services including the scientific recreational and aesthetic value of preserved natural environments krutilla 1967 krutilla and fisher 1975a this paper examines the impact of resource amenity values on the optimal growth of an economy which depends upon natural resource inputs for the production of goods and services in particular the paper examines the conditions under which it is optimal to permanently preserve some natural environments in which the productive resource is found the conditions which warrant permanent preservation are more restrictive than previously indicated by the literature on the economics of natural environments increasing consumption and declining commodity prices are not sufficient to warrant permanent preservation in addition the initial capital endowment can be an important determinant of the optimal level of preservation

the british low wage sector and the employment prospects of the unemployed abstractare low wages a way for the unemployed to switch to higher paying jobs using data from the british household panel survey the labour market dynamics of unemployed low paid and higher paid employed men are analysed moreover the respective un employment duration and occupational skill level are accounted for results show that in general low wages significantly reduce the risk of future unemployment and increase the chances of ascending the salary ladder especially in the case of long term unemployment 360 days furthermore the occupational skill level has a substantial influence on the upward mobility of low paid jobs individuals working in the initial period in a low paid and higher skilled occupation have on average an 11 percentage points higher probability of entering higher pay compared to when working in a low paid and low skilled occupation

the convergence of regional house prices in the uk the ripple effect hypothesis implies a long run convergence of regional uk house prices however despite many authors believing in the existence of such an underlying constancy statistical evidence has yet to be presented supporting this implication in this paper an alternative approach is proposed to analyse regional house price ratios in contrast to the findings of previous studies application of this new procedure results in the detection of widespread convergence of house prices in a number of regions of the uk the results suggest that the failure of previous analyses to uncover convergence is due to an underlying asymmetry in the adjustment process being ignored interestingly the form of asymmetry detected varies between regions while regions in the south east experience faster convergence following downswings in prices other regions exhibit more rapid convergence following increases in prices

state dependence and heterogeneity in health using a bias corrected fixed effects estimator this paper considers the estimation of a dynamic ordered probit of self assessed health status with two fixed effects one in the linear index equation and one in the cut points the two fixed effects allow us to robustly control for heterogeneity in unobserved health status and in reporting behaviour even though we can not separate both sources of heterogeneity the contributions of this paper are twofold first it contributes to the literature that studies the determinants and dynamics of self assessed health measures second this paper contributes to the recent literature on bias correction in nonlinear panel data models with fixed effects by applying and studying the finite sample properties of two of the existing proposals to our model the most direct and easily applicable correction to our model is not the best one and has important biases in our sample sizes

comment sequential moment restrictions in panel data 1992 comment sequential moment restrictions in panel data journal of business economic statistics vol 10 no 1 pp 20 26

measuring state dependence in individual poverty histories when there is feedback to employment status and household composition this paper argues that the assumption of strict exogeneity which is usually invoked in estimating models of state dependence with unobserved heterogeneity is violated in the poverty context as important variables determining contemporaneous poverty status in particular employment status and household composition are likely to be influenced by past poverty outcomes therefore a model of state dependence is developed that explicitly allows for possible feedback effects from past poverty to future employment and household composition outcomes empirical results based on data from the german socio economic panel gsoep suggest that there are indeed such feedback effects and that failure to take them into account may lead to biased estimates of the state dependence effect copyright 2009 john wiley sons ltd

predicting u s business cycle regimes this article examines the use of logistic classification methods for the identification and prediction of postwar u s business cycle expansion and contraction regimes as defined by the national bureau of economic research nber reference turning point dates we present a coherent theoretical framework for this task using measures of discriminatory information the analysis encompasses model selection parameter estimation and classification decision rules we examine the performance of logistic procedures in reproducing the nber regime classifications and in predicting one and three months ahead using leading indicator variables our models are shown to provide substantially more accurate business cycle regime predictions than markov switching specifications

simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity i study a simple widely applicable approach to handling the initial conditions problem in dynamic nonlinear unobserved effects models rather than attempting to obtain the joint distribution of all outcomes of the endogenous variables i propose finding the distribution conditional on the initial value and the observed history of strictly exogenous explanatory variables the approach is flexible and results in simple estimation strategies for at least three leading dynamic nonlinear models probit tobit and poisson regression i treat the general problem of estimating average partial effects and show that simple estimators exist for important special cases copyright 2005 john wiley sons ltd

the dynamics of health in the british household panel survey this paper considers the dynamics of a categorical indicator of self assessed health using eight waves 1991 1998 of the british household panel survey bhps our analysis has three focal points the relative contributions of state dependence and heterogeneity in explaining the dynamics of health the existence and consequences of health related sample attrition and the investigation of the effects of measures of socioeconomic status with a particular focus on educational attainment and income to investigate these issues we use dynamic panel ordered probit models there is clear evidence of health related attrition in the data but this does not distort the estimates of state dependence and of the socioeconomic gradient in health the models show strong positive state dependence and heterogeneity accounts for around 30 of the unexplained variation in health copyright 2004 john wiley sons ltd

efficient dynamic pollution taxation in an uncertain environment this paper analyzes efficient pollution taxation within a stochastic model of endogenous growth pollution is a by product of production and causes disutility furthermore the productivity which results from environmental quality is uncertain this reflects e g uncertain capital depreciation induced by natural disasters like hurricanes or floods this uncertainty is shown to raise an ambiguous impact on the optimal pollution level as well as on optimal environmental taxation market equilibrium turns out to be suboptimal since the households mis perceive their individual impact on pollution conditions for welfare maximizing pollution taxation are stated and it is shown that a direct pollution tax is not appropriate to yield pareto optimal growth instead a linear capital income tax together with a linear abatement subsidy build an efficient tax scheme if secondarily the governmental budget is balanced moreover an increase in the riskiness of environmental productivity may even lead to an increase in the optimal pollution level and to a decrease in optimal environmental taxation depending predominantly on the preference parameters

state dependence in the incidence of strikes evidence from canadian contract data using heckman s dynamic probit model abstract this paper considers whether there is state dependence in strike incidence using longitudinal contract data from canada i obtain my estimates using heckman s estimator for dynamic probit models and find that there is no state dependence in strike incidence

a disaggregated analysis of asymmetrical behaviour in the uk housing market potential asymmetrical adjustment in uk house prices is considered the present analysis extends previous research in a number of crucial ways first a seminal examination of asymmetry in regionally disaggregated uk house prices is undertaken secondly data are examined which are further disaggregated according to the age or vintage of the housing stock however the major development concerns the application of a non parametric testing approach to detect cyclical asymmetry in contrast to previously employed tests in the economics literature the triples test employed possesses high power and is not sensitive to outliers it is found that extensive asymmetry is present in uk house prices with cyclical peaks typically being greater in magnitude than corresponding troughs the implications of these findings for the comparison and construction of economic theories of the housing market the specification of econometric models and the construction and implementation of economic policy are noted

sustainable growth renewable resources and pollution thresholds and cycles abstract ayong le kama j econ dyn control 25 2001 1911 combines within an interesting model optimal saving a la ramsey with optimal intertemporal renewable resource use a la berck j environ econ manage 11 1981 101 this note draws attention to two possible outcomes thresholds and limit cycles that are overlooked in ayong le kama but also in other recent works and that are quite important in this context

sustainable growth renewable resources and pollution abstract our intention is to present a growth model with an environmental resource which has its own regeneration process the stock of this resource serves as a source of utility and an input to production we also intend to introduce a negative externality caused by a pollution flow which we assume to be proportional to production in the context of this model it is shown that by using the utility level of the green golden rule as a generalization of the ramsey s bliss point for solving an optimal growth problems with a zero discount rate an optimal path converges to the green golden rule configuration

uncertainty and amenity values in renewable resource economics in this paper we study the effects of amenities and uncertainty on the optimal exploitation of a renewable resource first if society displays a protection motive in the presence of amenities its optimal harvesting strategy will be more conservative second we show that ecological uncertainty leads society to develop the opposite behavior thus reducing its exposition towards risk a stationary analysis is undertaken to analytically quantify and compare these two effects with a gompertz natural regeneration function and a proportional risk the amenity effect is proved to prevail if and only if stochastic fluctuations on the resource stock are not too large

estimation of fractional dependent variables in dynamic panel data models with an application to firm dividend policy fractional dependent variables and models with state dependence arise in many economic applications however estimating models with fractional dependent variables is complicated by the presence of two corner solution outcomes when coupled with a dynamic panel data setting estimating quantities of interest can be quite complex or computationally difficult this article demonstrates a method for estimating fractional response variables which is easy to implement and presents an application of the technique to the determination of firm dividend policy the estimation demonstrates that neglecting dynamics unobserved heterogeneity or the doubly censored nature of the dependent variable can generate misleading conclusions

dynamics of female labour force participation in france abstractthis article formulates and estimates a structural intertemporal model of labour force participation relying on theoretical characterizations derived from an economic model of lifetime behaviour we estimate a dynamic probit model with correlated random effects using longitudinal data to allow for a dynamic structure the model is applied to a panel of married women drawn from the 1997 2002 french labour force surveys in order to represent their participation behaviour it is estimated by maximum simulated likelihood our results show that women s decisions to go out to work are characterized by significant state dependence unobserved heterogeneity and negative serial correlation in the transitory error component in addition we find that the presence of young children in a woman s household reduces her labour participation but unequally according to their age and number as expected educational level has a positive impact on women s participation last a rise in the husband s wage is found

ghg registries participation and performance under the canadian voluntary climate challenge program between 1994 and 2004 the voluntary challenge and registry vcr played an important role in canadian climate change policy in this paper we examine the decision of firms to participate in the vcr the extent of their involvement and then ask if greenhouse gas emissions are related to past vcr participation as an information provision program we find evidence that firms may participate in vcr to signal their environmental responsibility to regulators and to some extent investors but not to consumers we also find that past involvement in the vcr is a strong and significant determinant of current involvement in the registry greenhouse gas emissions reported to the mandatory greenhouse gas reporting program in 2004 however do not appear to be different between vcr reporters and non reporters ghg emissions are observed to be significantly lower among firms that are smaller emit fewer toxic releases use more renewable energy sources are intermediate good producers and are located in quebec ontario and manitoba

the market for elective surgery joint estimation of supply and demand this paper develops models of the demand for and supply of elective non emergency surgery using a panel of quarterly data for 200 english hospitals over the period 1995 2002 unusually distinct measures of supply outpatients seen and inpatient admissions and demand outpatient referrals and decisions to admit are available for each observation these offer the opportunity to estimate separate empirical models of supply and demand using ordinary least squares ols regression methods however the strong correlation between the residuals of these models suggests some merit in the deployment of seemingly unrelated regression sur methods although both static and dynamic sur estimations leave the results largely qualitatively unchanged sur estimation can have a considerable quantitative effect relative to the ols results for example sur estimation generates a lower elasticity of inpatient demand with respect to waiting time than that obtained via ols the results offer an important justification for more careful econometric modelling of hospital behaviour than has traditionally been employed in the health economics literature

a new perspective on the ripple effect in the uk housing market comovement cyclical subsamples and alternative indices an alternative perspective is provided on the existence of a ripple effect in the uk housing market in contrast to previous studies the analysis involves consideration of information on the changes in house prices to which the hypothesis of house price diffusion posited by the ripple effect relates rather than their levels in an examination of changes in house prices in london relative to other regions of the uk directional forecasting methods are employed to establish the extent of the relationship between geographical proximity and comovement across the three month window provided by quarterly data consequently the analysis provides a direct examination of the ripple effect which refers to changes in prices rather than the convergence of levels which has become a feature of the empirical literature the literature is extended further by both the application of dating techniques to perform the analysis across cycles and phases of cycles recovery and recessionary periods in the uk housing market

housing credit constraints and macro stability the secondary mortgage market and reduced cyclicality of residential investment author s peek joe wilcox james a abstract as secondary mortgage markets developed and grew over the past two decades fluctuations in residential investment and in mortgage balances were much smaller than they had been prior to the 1980s we hypothesize that by reducing the volatility of the total supply of funds to mortgage markets larger secondary mortgage markets smm dampened the responses of residential investment to income and to interest rates and thereby contributed importantly to the great moderation in volatility of the u s economy our empirical results provide some evidence that the smm did continually reduce the volatility of residential investment over the past two decades by tempering its sensitivities to income and to interest rates

testing for choice dynamics in panel data this article applies different approaches to distinguish state dependence from unobserved heterogeneity and serial correlation and hence test for state dependence in consumer brand choices first we apply a simple method proposed by chamberlain which involves lagged exogenous variables only second we also estimate a lagged dependent variable specification proposed by wooldridge third we use the estimation approach suggested by wooldridge to estimate a model with both lagged dependent and exogenous variables to distinguish between the two different sources of choice dynamics state dependence and lagged effects of the exogenous variables our analysis reveals that the best approach is to use models with both lagged dependent and exogenous variables our findings include strong evidence for state dependence in five out of the six product categories studied in this article

spatial dynamics of the housing market an interurban perspective a major unproven hypothesis in housing economics is that regional ripple effects are caused by household migration between regions this paper examines household migration and price ripples at the level of local housing markets driven partly by the fact that such migration linkages are likely to be more pronounced between local rather than regional housing markets following a review of regional housing market studies several hypotheses linking the existence of lead lag relationships and cointegration with the scale of migratory linkages between local housing market areas lhmas are proposed using private housing transactions data for strathclyde a sub region of scotland the paper identifies two clusters of lhmas that differ in terms of their migratory linkages with glasgow the hypothesised leading housing market of the sub region tests for lead lag relationships and cointegration confirm the link between migration and house price changes

persistence of innovation in dutch manufacturing is it spurious this paper studies the persistence of innovation and the dynamics of innovation output in dutch manufacturing using firm data from three waves of the community innovation surveys cis pertaining to the periods 1994 1996 1996 1998 and 1998 2000 we estimate by maximum likelihood a dynamic panel data type 2 tobit model accounting for individual effects and handling the initial conditions problem we find that there is no evidence of true persistence in achieving technological product or process innovations while past shares of innovative sales condition albeit to a small extent current shares of innovative sales

no money no honey financial versus knowledge and demand constraints on innovation the paper adds to the literature on the barriers to innovation in two ways first we assess comparatively what mostly constrains firms ability to translate investment in innovation activity into new products and processes whether it is mainly finance as most of the literature would suggest or whether it is mostly knowledge and market related aspects second we suggest a method to correct for the sample selection bias that often affects empirical contributions to this scholarship by filtering out firms that are not interested in innovation from those that struggle to engage in it we obtain a relevant sample of potential innovators which allows us to analyse the comparative effect of financial and non financial barriers on innovation success we find that demand side factors particularly concentrated market structure and lack of demand are as important as financial constraints in determining firms innovation failures this evidence redirects attention from financial to non financial barriers by considering traditional demand market structure and regulation factors involved in reduced firm innovation performance the empirical analysis is based on an unbalanced panel of firm level data from four waves of the uk community innovation survey cis between 2002 and 2010 merged with data from the uk business structure database

whose wages do unions raise a dynamic model of unionism and wage rate determination for young men we estimate the union premium for young men over a period of declining unionization 1980 87 through a procedure which identifies the alternative sources of the endogeneity of union status while we estimate the average increase in wages resulting from union employment to be in excess of 20 we find that the return to unobserved heterogeneity operating through union status is substantial and that the union premium is highly variable we also find that the premium is sensitive to the form of sorting allowed in estimation moreover the data are consistent with comparative advantage sorting our results suggest that the unobserved heterogeneity which positively contributes to the likelihood of union membership is associated with higher wages we are unable however to determine whether this is due to the ability of these workers to extract monopoly rents or whether it reflects the more demanding hiring standards of employers faced by union wages 1998 john wiley sons ltd

the interrelated dynamics of unemployment and low wage employment this paper examines the extent of state dependence in unemployment and the role played in this by intervening low wage employment a range of dynamic random and fixed effects estimators are compared low wage employment is found to have almost as large an adverse effect as unemployment on future prospects and the difference in their effects is found to be insignificant evidence is presented that low wage jobs act as the main conduit for repeat unemployment and considerably increases its probability obtaining a higher wage job reduces the increased risk of repeat unemployment to insignificance

semiparametric bayesian inference for dynamic tobit panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity summary this paper develops semiparametric bayesian methods for inference of dynamic tobit panel data models our approach requires that the conditional mean dependence of the unobserved heterogeneity on the initial conditions and the strictly exogenous variables be specified important quantities of economic interest such as the average partial effect and average transition probabilities can be readily obtained as a by product of the markov chain monte carlo run we apply our method to study female labor supply using a panel data set from the national longitudinal survey of youth 1979 copyright 2008 john wiley sons ltd

heterogeneity in unemployment state dependence by applying a heterogeneous slope model this paper shows that unemployment state dependence varies across workers assuming a homogeneous effect of past unemployment on the risk of staying unemployed underestimates the scarring effect of unemployment in the majority of countries analyzed

strategic exploitation of a common resource under environmental risk abstract we study the effect of environmental risk on the extraction of a common resource using a dynamic and non cooperative game in which an environmental event impacts the renewability and the quality of the resource we show that the anticipation of such an event has an ambiguous effect on extraction and the tragedy of the commons a risk of a reduction in the renewability induces the agents to extract less today while a risk of a deterioration in the quality has the opposite effect moreover when environmental risk induces conservation the tragedy of the commons is worsened

renewable resources and economic sustainability a dynamic analysis with heterogeneous time preferences abstract in recent years there has been increasing interest in the study of economic sustainability and its relationship with natural resources this paper attempts to shed some light on the issue by taking into account the individual variations in time preferences for consumption and resource amenity we characterize the long run steady state analyze its asymptotic stability and explore the transational dynamics from any initial state the welfare implications of the optimal path are also discussed

is there long run convergence among regional house prices in the uk this paper investigates the long run convergence of regional house prices in the uk existing studies have failed to reach a consensus on whether or not regional house prices exhibit long run convergence with each other the application is proposed of a new test involving unit root testing of the first principal component based on regional national house price differentials using mix adjusted quarterly data for 1973 2006 it is found that the first principal component is stationary this suggests that all uk regional house prices are driven by a single common stochastic trend further analysis suggests that those regions that are more distant from london exhibit the highest degrees of persistence with respect to deviations in house price differentials

along the way back from the brink abstract an optimal control model of wildlife management is developed to analyze the transitory dynamics set forth by the reintroduction of animals that provide benefits but can also come into conflict with humans the shadow price of these resources can be positive or negative potentially creating a nonconvexity the conditions under which reintroduction is not desirable are determined and those characterizing the initiation of costly population control are investigated an application to deer management illustrates the relevance of the nonconvexity and the magnitude of losses stemming from delays in implementing optimal management the impact of distributional concerns on efficiency is discussed

statistical properties of uk house prices an analysis of disaggregated vintages the statistical properties of uk house prices are considered at a disaggregated level where disaggregation occurs according to the age or vintage of the housing given the frequency of transactions in the housing market and the sophistication of the estate agent system it might be expected that the series would share long run relationships and be subject to common short run shocks it is found via conventional techniques that both the long run and short run relationships are less pronounced than might be expected however by extending recent research concerning the testing of common features commonality in the short run cycles of the house price series is uncovered albeit with a partial lag despite this the cycles are shown to differ in terms of their asymmetric behaviour

third party intervention and the preservation of bargaining relationships this article uses longitudinal bargaining contract data to examine whether third party dispute resolution procedures improve the health of bargaining relationships and contribute to their preservat

does government funding complement or substitute private research funding to universities abstract there is growing political pressure on universities to intensify their interaction with industry and to enlarge their own research funding options in a context characterised by increasing constraints on public spending however whether the successful achievement of such a political desired outcome is consistent with a restriction of government funding is not clear and requires further investigation as a matter of fact there is scant empirical evidence on whether and to what extent government funding affects the external funding options available to universities in particular those related to research and consulting activities by using a set of probit and tobit panel data models estimated on financial data for the whole population of italian university departments engaged in research in the engineering and physical sciences this paper provides evidence that government funding to universities complements funding from research contracts and consulting contributing to increasing universities collaboration with industry and activating knowledge transfer processes

poverty and social exclusion two sides of the same coin or dynamically interrelated processes there is growing interest in the analysis and measurement of social exclusion to complement the static and dynamic literature on income poverty on theoretical grounds social exclusion and income poverty are seen as different processes but with closely interrelated dynamics however our empirical understanding of the way these two processes dynamically interact at the individual level is still very limited to shed some light on the issue we use a dynamic bivariate probit model controlling for unobserved heterogeneity and wooldridge 2005 type initial conditions both the first and second order markov dynamics are examined we estimate the model using the italian sample of the european community household panel echp waves 1 8 and find a sizable extent of state dependence in both poverty and social exclusion moreover there are dynamic cross effects implying that poverty and social exclusion are mutually reinforcing social policies aimed at eradicating poverty and avoiding individuals social

scientific progress and irreversibility an economic interpretation of the precautionary principle abstract we consider the problem of the optimal use of a good whose consumption can produce damages in the future scientific progress is made over time that provides information on the distribution of the intensity of damages we show that this progress induces earlier prevention effort only if prudence is larger than twice absolute risk aversion this paper thus identifies the class of quite restrictive but plausible conditions such that scientific uncertainties justify an immediate reduction of the consumption of a potentially toxic substance

poverty transition and persistence in ethiopia 1994 2004 summary this study analyzes the persistence of poverty in both rural and urban areas in ethiopia during 1994 2004 the key finding is that households move frequently in and out of poverty but the difficulty of exiting from poverty like the chance of avoiding slipping back increases with the time spent in that state and varies considerably between male and female headed households our results imply that it is important to design anti poverty policies both to hinder households from slipping into extreme poverty and to minimize the length of the poverty spell for households once they have fallen into it

regional house prices and the ripple effect in malaysia this paper applies univariate and panel lagrange multiplier lm unit root tests with one and two structural breaks to the ratio of the regional to national house price to examine the ripple effect for five different housing price indices aggregate housing detached housing semi detached housing terrace housing and high rise housing across 14 regional locations in malaysia segmentation is restricted to a small group of states across most housing types for which there is no long run relationship with the malaysian average when all housing types are taken together evidence of a ripple effect is generally found from the most developed states to the less developed states of malaysia while overall rates of conversion to the long run equilibrium are consistent with a low level of persistence there is some evidence of regional clusters based on similar speeds of adjustment in different parts of the country

split panel jackknife estimation of fixed effect models we propose a jackknife for reducing the order of the bias of maximum likelihood estimates of nonlinear dynamic fixed effect panel models in its simplest form the half panel jackknife the estimator is just 2 hat theta bar theta 1 2 where hat theta is the mle from the full panel and bar theta 1 2 is the average of the two half panel mles each using t 2 time periods and all n cross sectional units this estimator eliminates the first order bias of hat theta the order of the bias is further reduced if two partitions of the panel are used for example two half panels and three 1 3 panels and the corresponding mles on further partitioning the panel any order of bias reduction can be achieved the split panel jackknife estimators are asymptotically normal centered at the true value with variance equal to that of the mle under asymptotics where t is allowed to grow slowly with n in analogous fashion the split panel jackknife reduces the bias of the profile likelihood and the bias of marginal effect estimates simulations in fixed effect dynamic discrete choice models with small t show that the split panel jackknife effectively reduces the bias and mean squared error of the mle and yields confidence intervals with much better coverage

borrowing from pui to pay pom multiple borrowing and over indebtedness in rural thailand summary rural financial markets have grown rapidly in asian emerging market economies thus contributing to economic development and the reduction of poverty at the same time however the level of indebtedness of rural households has increased making households more vulnerable to shocks one of the reasons for rising household debt is the ease of borrowing simultaneously from a growing number of lending institutions this paper addresses two major questions first does borrowing from multiple sources increase rural households risk of over indebtedness second do over indebted rural households refinance their outstanding loans through multiple borrowing running the risk of becoming trapped in a debt cycle employing a dynamic random effects bivariate probit model for a unique set of longitudinal household panel data from northeast thailand this study examines the bidirectional relationship between over indebtedness and multiple borrowing to determine to what extent rural households become trapped in debt cycles on the one hand the results indicate that households in northeast thailand take on multiple loans which further increases their risk of becoming over indebted on the other hand our model results do not confirm the widespread notion that over indebted rural households use multiple loans to refinance unpayable debts

environmental regulation and foreign direct investment evidence from south korea abstract this paper studies how environmental regulation shapes the pattern of foreign direct investment fdi and thereby assesses the pollution haven hypothesis conflicting results exist in the case studies examining the most advanced countries partly due to the deterrent effect of clean technology adoptions on industry migration to minimize the clean technology effect we examine the pattern of south korean fdi over 2000 2007 the period that korean firms relied on old production technologies despite facing rapidly strengthened environmental standards a difference in differences type identification strategy circumvents other potential confounders we find strong evidence that polluting industries tend to invest more in countries with laxer environmental regulations in terms of both the amount of investment intensive margin and the number of new foreign affiliates extensive margin a similar finding is obtained when imports are analyzed

testing for convergence between uk regional house prices drake l 1995 testing for convergence between uk regional house prices reg studies 29 357 366 this paper uses the kalman filter time varying parameter estimation technique to test for convergence between uk regional house prices this issue is significant given the historical disparities in regional house price inflation rates and the unprecedented downturn in both uk and most regional house prices in the late 1980s and early 1990s the evidence suggests that there are clear regional differences in the pattern of uk house price movements in particular house prices in the north and scotland show evidence of greater divergence from prices in the rest of the south east region than do the southern and midlands regions drake l 1995 une analyse pour determiner la convergence des prix du marche immobilier regionaux au royaume uni reg studies 29 357 366 cet article se sert de la technique dite kalman filter afin de determiner la convergence des prix du marche immobilier regionaux au royaume uni c

a framework for estimating dynamic unobserved effects panel data models with possible feedback to future explanatory variables abstract i show how to construct the likelihood function for the conditional maximum likelihood estimator in dynamic unobserved effects models where not all conditioning variables are strictly exogenous the method for handling the initial conditions problem appears to be novel and offers a flexible relatively simple alternative to existing methods

seasonality and cointegration of regional house prices in the uk the data generation process underlying regional house prices in the uk is investigated using new statistical tests it is found that causal flows tend to be northwards the south east rather than greater london acts as an exogenous price determinator of the other regions in the south the midland regions have a great influence on prices in the north and flows through the east midlands are characterised by bi directional causality these results are largely independent of assumptions made about the data generation process and tests of these assumptions have low power in any case there are also similarities between this causality and migration patterns particularly in the south of england

crossing the innovation threshold through mergers and acquisitions firms are resorting more and more to mergers and acquisitions m a to bridge the gap between where they are and where they would like to be in relation to innovation and performance this paper investigates whether involvement in m a triggers distinct patterns of innovative behaviour across firms and whether this effect is conditional on firm size the analysis combines data from four waves of the community innovation survey cis and the business register of dutch manufacturing firms we observe that m as influence the probability that firms will begin innovation activities or persist with them and these effects vary at different points in the firm size distribution in particular by using m a firms are able to persist with the innovation efforts and output over time and this effect is especially strong for large firms for small firms m a help them to cross the innovation threshold increasing the probability of the transition from a non innovator to an active innovator however the m a effect does not mitigate the tendency of small firms to be occasional innovators