efficient mechanisms for bilateral trading we consider bargaining problems between one buyer and one seller for a single object the seller s valuation and the buyer s valuation for the object are assumed to be independent random variables and each individual s valuation is unknown to the other we characterize the set of allocation mechanisms that are bayesian incentive compatible and individually rational and show the general impossibility of ex post efficient mechanisms without outside subsidies for a wide class of problems we show how to compute mechanisms that maximize expected total gains from trade and mechanisms that can maximize a broker s expected profit journal of economic literature classification number 026

the phillips curve back to the 60s abstract this paper reexamines the behavior of inflation and unemployment and reaches four conclusions 1 the u s phillips curve is alive and well at least as well as in the past 2 inflation expectations however have become steadily more anchored 3 the slope of the curve has substantially declined but the decline dates back to the 1980s rather than to the crisis 4 the standard error of the residual in the relation is large especially in comparison to the low level of inflation each of the four conclusions presents challenges for the conduct of monetary policy

litigation and settlement in patent infringement cases a patent grants its owner the right to sue intruders that have been identified the patentholder must then supervise the market and react in case of infringement his reaction may be to go to court to settle or to accept entry we investigate how intensive the monitoring effort should be and how it will influence the entry decision in a simultaneous game even if the penalty paid by the infringer in case of a finding of liability is high the patentholder may prefer a settlement to a trial the likelihood of entry may increase with the penalty in sequential games regardless who plays first entry occurs comparatively less often than in the simultaneous game

analyzing the analysts career concerns and biased earnings forecasts this paper examines the career concerns of security analysts we relate long histories of their earnings forecasts to job separations we find that relatively accurate past forecasts lead to favorable career outcomes such as remaining at or moving up to a high status large prestigious brokerage house controlling for accuracy optimistic forecasts relative to the consensus increase the chances of favorable job separations job separations depend much less on accuracy for analysts who cover stocks that are underwritten by their brokerage houses such analysts are also much more likely to be rewarded for optimistic forecasts than other analysts furthermore job separations were much less sensitive to accuracy and somewhat more sensitive to optimism during the stock market mania of the late 1990s these findings suggest that the well documented analyst forecast optimism bias is likely due to incentives to promote stocks

protecting intellectual property rights are small firms handicapped this paper studies the determinants of patent suits and settlements during 1978 99 by linking information from the u s patent office the federal courts and industry sources we find that litigation risk is much higher for patents that are owned by individuals and firms with small patent portfolios patentees with a large portfolio of patents to trade or other characteristics that facilitate cooperative resolution of disputes are much less likely to prosecute infringement suits however postsuit outcomes do not depend on these characteristics these findings show that small patentees are at a significant disadvantage in protecting their patent rights because their greater litigation risk is not offset by more rapid resolution of their suits our empirical estimates of the heterogeneity in litigation risk can help in developing private patent litigation insurance to mitigate the adverse affects of high enforcement costs

asymmetric information and search frictions a neutrality result this paper integrates asymmetric information between firms into a canonical model of on the job search workers are heterogeneous in ability but not all employers observe a worker s type wage dispersion caused by search frictions makes the equilibrium wage distribution insensitive to informational asymmetries hence the equilibrium outcome may be the same as when a worker s ability is known to every firm the supportability of the full information outcome depends on market parameters related to productivity knowledge and search the theoretical results elucidate an empirical puzzle about demographic differences in asymmetric information between employers

did the job ladder fail after the great recession we study employment reallocation across employers through the lens ofa dynamic job ladder model workers always agree on a ranking ofemployers at all points in time and search for better jobs both offand on the job a parsimonious version of the model fits well the timeseries of gross worker flows by employer size from newly available usdata from the job openings and labor turnover survey focusing on the us experience in and around the great recession our evidence indicates that the job ladder stopped working then and has not fully resumed yet

the real consequences of market segmentation we study the real effects of market segmentation due to credit ratings using a matched sample of firms just above and just below the investment grade cutoff these firms have similar observables including average investment rates however flows into high yield mutual funds have an economically significant effect on the issuance and investment of the speculative grade firms relative to their matches especially for firms likely to be financially constrained the effect is associated with the discrete change

managerial incentive problems a dynamic perspective the paper studies how a person s concern for a future career may influence his or her incentives to put in effort or make decisions on the job in the model the person s productive abilities are revealed over time through observations of performance there are no explicit output contingent contracts but since the wage in each period is based on expected output and expected output depends on assessed ability an implicit contract links today s performance to future wages an incentive problem arises from the person s ability and desire to influence the learning process and therefore the wage process by taking unobserved actions that affect today s performance the fundamental incongruity in preferences is between the individual s concern for human capital returns and the firm s concern for financial returns the two need be only weakly related it is shown that career motives can be beneficial as well as detrimental depending on how well the two kinds of capital returns are aligned it is well understood by now that informational externalities may place special demands on the organization of economic exchange simple price mediated markets will frequently fail in the presence of asymmetric information in that case more elaborate contractual arrangements have to be used as substitutes for the price system lately considerable effort has been devoted to the analysis of contracting under incomplete information with the objective to understand the range of economic institutions that emerge in response to the failure of the price system the analysis of moral hazard has played a prominent role in this development moral hazard problems arise when for some reason or another transacting parties cannot contract contingent on the delivery of the good for instance in buying labour services it may be that the amount of labour supplied is not directly observable precluding a simple exchange of wage for labour as a partial remedy to this problem an imperfect mutually observed signal about the supply of labour can be used as a proxy in the contract frequently output is taken as such a proxy the drawback is that output is often influenced by other factors than labour input which induce undesirable risk into the contract one is therefore faced with a tradeoff between allocating risk associated with incomplete observability and providing incentives for a proper supply of labour gaining insight into this tradeoff is important not only for understanding contracting in the small e g managerial incentive schemes but also because it is closely related to the fundamental tension between equity and efficiency in the society as a whole while our understanding of moral hazard has advanced a lot in past years it is clear that much work remains an important question that has received little attention until

the cost of job loss this article identifies an equilibrium theory of wage formation and endogenous quit turnover in a labour market with on the job search where risk averse workers accumulate human capital through learning by doing and lose skills while unemployed optimal contracting implies the wage paid increases with experience and tenure indirect inference using german data determines the deep parameters of the model the estimated model not only reproduces the large and persistent fall in wages and earnings following job loss a new structural decomposition finds foregone human capital accumulation while unemployed is the worker s major cost of job loss

on input market frictions and estimation of factors demand in this article we explore the impact of imperfectly competitive input markets on production function estimation first order profit maximizing conditions are altered when frictions in input markets cause the elasticity of input supply to the firm to be finite a consequence of this is that the standard econometric model used for production function estimation will be misspecified we prove that in all nontrivial cases finite elasticities of supply to the firm will lead to inconsistent estimates of production function parameters monte carlo simulations show that the resulting bias can be economically significant

measuring labor market frictions a cross country comparison in this paper we define and estimate measures of labor market frictions using data on job durations we compare different estimation methods and different types of data we propose and apply an unconditional inference method that can be applied to aggregate duration data it does not require wage data it is invariant to the way in which wages are determined and it allows workers to care about other job characteristics the empirical analysis focuses on france but we perform separate analyses for the united states of america the united kingdom germany and the netherlands we quantify the monopsony power due to search frictions and we examine the policy effects of the minimum wage unemployment benefits and search frictions jel j63 j64

the role of patents in information and communication technologies a survey of the literature during the last few decades the number of patents in information and communication technologies has increased considerably an increasing number of patents and the associated fragmentation of ip rights have generated a series of potentially problematic consequences patent thickets royalty stacking the emergence of patent assertion entities increased patent litigation particularly around standard essential patents and the difficulties with defining fair reasonable and nondiscriminatory licensing terms are some of the most debated issues in the literature that we review in this paper we devote a specific section of our survey to patent quality currently one of the most debated issues surrounding the patent system in our analysis we mix theoretical and empirical arguments with a more policy oriented reasoning this allows us to better position the different issues in the relevant political and economic context

sticky prices and costly credit we develop a theory of money and credit as competing payment instruments then put it to work in applications agents use cash and credit because the former latter is subject to the inflation tax transaction costs frictions that make the choice of payment method interesting also imply equilibrium price dispersion we derive closed form solutions for money demand and show how to simultaneously account for the price change facts cash credit shares in micro data and money interest correlations in macro data the effects of inflation on welfare price dispersion and markups are discussed as are nonstationary equilibria with dynamics in the price distribution

do patents work thickets trolls and antibiotic resistance this paper connects ideas from recent literature on the economics of intellectual property ip to address the question did the strengthening and broadening of ip rights from important patent policy changes in the us promote greater innovation the analysis rests on the theory of cumulative innovation which shows that if ip rights on a pioneer invention extend to follow on research and impediments to contracting exist then strengthening patents can actually reduce overall innovation recent empirical studies are consistent with the theory patents can significantly deter follow on research in complex technology areas where contracting is difficult computers electronics telecommunications but not in drugs chemicals and human genes i outline remedies from court decisions and antitrust policy for addressing inefficiencies from patent trolling patent thickets and the anti commons of fragmented ownership i then apply the analysis to the antibiotics market drawing on recent research to examine how patent and competition policies can be used to improve incentives for drug development in the battle against antibiotic resistance the literature provides persuasive evidence that the policy changes overreached in broadening and strengthening ip rights and reveals important patent reforms for improving the effectiveness of patent systems in the us and canada

wage differentials employer size and unemployment the unique equilibrium solution to a game in which a continuum of individual employers choose permanent wage offers and a continuum of workers search by sequentially sampling from the set of offers is characterized wage dispersion is a robust outcome provided that workers search while employed as well as when unemployed the unique nondegenerate equilibrium distribution of wage offers is constructed for three cases 1 identical workers and employers 2 identical employers and an atomless distribution of worker supply prices and 3 identical workers and an atomless distribution of job productivities copyright 1998 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

employment efficiency and sticky wages evidence from flows in the labor market i consider three views of the labor market in the first wages are flexible and employment follows the principle of bilateral efficiency workers never lose their jobs because of sticky wages in the second wages are sticky and inefficient layoffs do occur in the third wages are also sticky but employment governance is efficient i show that the behavior of flows in the labor market strongly favors the third view in the modern u s economy recessions do not begin with a burst of layoffs unemployment rises because jobs are hard to find not because an unusual number of people are thrown into unemployment

an empirical model of wage dispersion with sorting we estimate an equilibrium on the job search model with endogenous search intensity workers differ by skill firms by productivity workers respond to mismatch by intensive search and sorting may result from complementarities in the match level production function the model is estimated on danish matched employer employee data firms are ranked through revealed preference by the fraction of hires that is poached from other firms the poaching rank identification is obtained by firm rank conditional mobility and wage patterns wage variation is decomposed into four sources sorting 40 worker heterogeneity 32 firm heterogeneity 18 and frictional competition 10 a social planner can improve output net of search cost by 1 5 relative to the decentralized solution

gender wage gaps reconsidered a structural approach using matched employer employee data in this paper we study the extent to which wage differentials between men and women can be explained by differences in productivity disparities in friction patterns segregation and wage discrimination for this purpose we propose an equilibrium search model that features rent splitting on the job search and two sided heterogeneity in productivity the model is estimated using german matched employer employee data overall the results reveal that female workers are less productive and more mobile than males in addition female workers have on average slightly lower bargaining power than their male counterparts

sorting and the output loss due to search frictions we analyze a general search model with on the job search ojs and sorting of heterogeneous workers into heterogeneous jobs for given values of nonmarket time the relative efficiency of ojs and the amount of search frictions we derive a simple relationship between the unemployment rate mismatch and wage dispersion we estimate the latter two from standard micro data our methodology accounts for measurement error which is crucial to distinguish true from spurious mismatch and wage dispersion we find that without frictions output would be about 9 5 higher if firms can commit to pay wages as a function of match quality and 15 5 higher if they cannot noncommitment leads to a business stealing externality which causes a 5 5 drop in output

training turnover and search this article explores a model of firm specific training in a job search environment with labor turnover the main substantive finding is a positive association between training and wages when dispersed the article then precisely characterizes how both wage dispersion and firm profitability depend on the flow value b 0 of workers unmatched time it is shown that i for all high values b no equilibrium exists ii for intermediate values b multiple equilibria arise where firms earn zero profits and choose from a general wage distribution iii for all lower values b there is a unique equilibrium with firms earning positive profits and choosing from an atomless set of wages

how valuable is patent protection estimates by technology field i present evidence on the private value of patent rights in france for different technology fields and nationalities of ownership using nonparametric techniques and a parametric model of patent renewal i find that the distribution of the value of patent rights is highly skewed that patent protection is a significant but not the major source of private returns to r d and that these characteristics vary across technology fields i compute the r d cash subsidy that is equivalent to the value of patent rights measure the variations in value of time technology fields and nationalities and show that these differences are correlated with patent grant rates

frictional labour mobility we build a dynamic model of migration where in addition to standard relocation costs workers face spatial frictions that decrease their ability to compete for distant job opportunities we estimate the model on a matched employer employee panel dataset describing labour market transitions within and between the 100 largest french cities our identification strategy is based on the premise that frictions affect the frequency of job transitions while mobility costs impact the distribution of accepted wages we find that 1 controlling for spatial frictions reduces mobility cost estimates by one order of magnitude 2 the urban wage premium is driven by better opportunities for local job to job transitions in larger cities 3 migration reduces lifetime inequalities by providing insurance against unsatisfactory initial location draws 4 labour mobility policies based on relocation subsidies are inefficient unlike switching from nationwide to local minimum wages

damages and injunctions in protecting intellectual property we investigate how liability rules and property rules protect intellectual property infringement might not be deterred under any of the enforcement regimes available however counterintuitively a credible threat of infringement can actually benefit the patentholder we compare the two doctrines of damages lost profit lost royalty and unjust enrichment and argue that unjust enrichment protects the patentholder better than lost royalty in the case of proprietary research tools both can be superior to a property rule depending on how much delay is permitted before infringement is enjoined for other proprietary products end user products cost reducing innovations these conclusions can be reversed

frictional wage dispersion in search models a quantitative assessment we propose a new measure of frictional wage dispersion the mean min wage ratio for a large class of search models we show that this measure is independent of the wage offer distribution but depends on statistics of labor market turnover and on preferences under plausible preference parameterizations observed magnitudes for worker flows imply that in the basic search model and in most of its extensions frictional wage dispersion is very small notable exceptions are some of the most recent models of on the job search our new measure allows us to rationalize the diverse empirical findings in the large literature estimating structural search models

over confidence may reduce negotiation delay abstract when a seller negotiates with multiple buyers how does over confidence affect the timing of trade in this paper we distinguish between over confidence about trade opportunities and over confidence about the terms of trade in bargaining environments without externalities both types of over confidence can cause delays in agreement if externalities are present the two forms of subjective bias have very different impacts on delay in particular over confidence about trade opportunities may reduce bargaining delay

the settlement of patent litigation in this article i develop a model to analyze patent licensing that is induced as part of a settlement agreement to avoid litigation of the issue of patent validity the patentee possesses private information about patent validity and makes a take it or leave it settlement offer to a single potential rival an essentially unique sequential equilibrium exists if out of equilibrium beliefs are restricted appropriately the model analyzes the effect of the probability of settlement and litigation

job and wage mobility with minimum wages and imperfect compliance we propose a job search model with minimum wage regulations and imperfect compliance to explain the doubling of the mean and variance of hourly earnings of white males during the first 18 years of labor market experience the model encompasses job mobility and on the job wage growth as sources of wage dynamics and is estimated by simulated generalized method of moments using data from the national longitudinal survey of youths 1979 our estimates provide a good fit for the observed levels and trends of the main job and wage mobility data and for the increase in the mean and variance of wages over the life cycle as well as for the fall in the fraction of workers paid below the minimum wage job mobility explains 40 50 of the observed wage growth increases in the minimum wage and or compliance deliver small effects on the wage distribution and the nonemployment rate

monopsony in the low wage labor market evidence from minimum nurse staffing regulations this paper provides direct evidence on the extent of monopsony power in the low wage labor market by estimating the firm level elasticity of labor supply for nurse aides in the long term care nursing home industry using exogenous variation in hiring induced by the passage of a state minimum nurse staffing law i find that facilities initially out of compliance with the new law did not have to raise their wage offers relative to their competitors in order to hire more nurses while this is consistent with perfect competition in simple monopsony models of the labor market i discuss how the results may be more ambiguous in more complicated models

equilibrium price distributions equilibrium price distributions for a homogeneous product consistent with individual incentives are investigated they arise in informationally imperfect markets in which the only primitive datum is the distribution of search costs it is shown that single multi and continuous price distributions are all viable long run phenomena depending on the nature of search costs a method for computing equilibrium price distributions is also provided jevons law of one price has long been an accepted dictum in economic theory in a classroom presentation it still serves sometimes implicitly as a major premise in many micro models of market interaction much of the descriptive theory as well as welfare analysis hinges on this assumption yet one s day to day experience reveals that price differentials are a viable phenomenon and that looking for lower prices may very well be a rewarding activity the prospects of eventually hitting a bargain and the resulting price reduction would more than compensate for the cost incurred during the search process moreover the existence of price dispersions appear to be an empirically stable phenomenon snapshots of markets for relatively homogeneous products reveal substantial and recurring price differentials stigler 1961 and pratt wise and zeckhauser 1979 for example report some evidence supporting this claim an important article by stigler 1961 focused economists attention on the crucial role played by the informational structure of markets it gave rise to the study of the

cross licensing and competition we study bilateral cross licensing agreements between n 2 firms that engage in competition after the licensing phase it is shown that the most collusive cross licensing royalty i e the one that allows the industry to achieve the monopoly profit is sustainable as the outcome of bilaterally efficient agreements in a symmetric setting if the terms of the cross licensing agreements are not observable to third parties the monopoly royalty is the unique symmetric bilaterally efficient royalty however when the terms of the agreements are public the most competitive royalty i e zero can also be bilaterally efficient policy implications regarding the antitrust treatment of cross licensing agreements are derived from these results

the dynamics of pretrial negotiation it is shown that many cases proceed to court despite ample opportunity for interaction and much of the settlement takes place on the courthouse steps the deadline effect when fixed costs of bargaining are introduced a u shaped pattern of settlement appears with a greater chance of settlement at the beginning and at the end of negotiations than in the middle these characteristics persist even as the time between offers approaches zero the theoretical predictions are consistent with the stylized facts a large proportion of the lawsuits that are settled out of court are settled very close to the trial date or in the first several days of the trial 3 although the deadline effect appears in many other settings as well it has little theoretical support 4

wages and informality in developing countries we develop an equilibrium wage posting model with heterogeneous firms that decide to locate in the formal or the informal sector and workers who search randomly on and off the job we estimate the model on brazilian labor force survey data in equilibrium firms of equal productivity locate in different sectors a fact observed in the data wages are characterized by compensating differentials we show that tightening enforcement does not increase unemployment and increases wages total output and welfare by enabling better allocation of workers to higher productivity jobs and improving competition in the formal labor market jel e26 j24 j31 j46 o15 o17

the dynamics of the transfer and renewal of patents this article explores new data on the transfer and renewal of u s patents and interprets this new evidence using a model of patent transfers and renewal we find that the proportion of transferred patents is large and differs across technology fields and especially type of patentees we also find that the probability of a patent being traded depends on a number of factors the age of the patent the number of citations received by a given age the patent generality and whether the patent has been previously traded or not these findings are consistent with the predictions of a model of patent transfers and renewals

patents and cumulative innovation causal evidence from the courts cumulative innovation is central to economic growth do patent rights facilitate or impede such follow on innovation this paper studies the effect of removing patent protection through court invalidation on the subsequent research related to the focal patent as measured by later citations we exploit random allocation of judges at the u s court of appeal for the federal circuit to control for the endogeneity of patent invalidation we find that patent invalidation leads to a 50 percent increase in subsequent citations to the focal patent on average but the impact is highly heterogeneous patent rights appear to block follow on innovation only in the technology fields of computers electronics and medical instruments moreover the effect is entirely driven by invalidation of patents owned by large patentees that triggers entry of small innovators suggesting that patents may impede the democratization of innovation

the career dynamics of high skilled women and men evidence from sweden in this paper we use matched worker firm register data from sweden to examine the career dynamics of high skill women and men specifically we track wages for up to 20 years among women and men b

product market evidence on the employment effects of the minimum wage we infer the employment response to a minimum wage change by calibrating a model of employment for the restaurant industry whereas perfect competition implies that employment falls and prices rise after a minimum wage increase the monopsony model potentially implies the opposite we show that estimated price responses are consistent with the competitive model we place fairly tight bounds on the employment response with the most plausible parameter values suggesting that a 10 increase in the minimum wage lowers low skill employment by 2 4 and total restaurant employment by 1 3

patent litigation with endogenous disputes the recent explosion of patenting and patent disputes has sparked a growing literature on the economics of patent litigation generally models in this literature take the existence of a dispute as given this assumption is troubling because it hampers the interpretation of empirical studies of patent litigation and the assessment of many patent policy reforms disputes would not arise if all technology adopters obtained ex ante licenses from patent owners this suggests that two stories could explain the origin of patent disputes in one the technology adopter observes a patented technology but chooses to imitate inventing around and or hiding the infringement in the other the adopter develops his own technology and is unaware of another firm s putative patent rights this kind of innocent infringement occurs because patent rights often have uncertain boundaries or questionable validity in addition the sheer number of patents facing a typical innovator makes careful assessment quite burdensome furthermore patent claims are often hidden sometimes strategically until after firms have made technology investments these two accounts suggest that a model of disputes should consider the decisions of patent owners to invent to patent and to monitor use of the patented technology by others and the decisions of potential infringers to monitor extant patents and develop and adopt new technology claude crampes and corinne langinier 2002 endogenize disputes by focusing on a patent owner s monitoring activity and imitative behavior by potential infringers our model includes this behavior but it also includes defendants who invent around a patent and defendants who are unaware of the patented technology we find that this richer model generates testable implications that better match empirical evidence on patent litigation

directed search with multi vacancy firms abstract i construct a directed search model in which firms decide whether to enter a market and how many positions to create within this framework the number of firms and the size of each firm are determined endogenously wages play an allocative role in the matching process and the frictions inherent in this process derive from the equilibrium behavior of workers and firms i characterize the unique equilibrium comparative statics generate testable implications for cross sectional variation in matching efficiency as well as the dynamic behavior of vacancies and unemployment moreover allowing for ex ante heterogeneity across firms the model can easily and naturally generate the observed relationship between firm size wages profitability and hiring

a new suggestion for simplifying the theory of money we propose a new search theoretic model of monetary exchange with indivisible assets based on price posting instead of bargaining and incorporating noisy search this yields some familiar results plus a lot more the model admits multiple steady states due to the self referential nature of liquidity it admits cyclic chaotic and stochastic equilibria and compared to bargaining versions the dynamics are more general and have better microfoundations it generates price dispersion with interesting efficiency implications plus sticky prices and rational inattention parametric examples yield closed form solutions based on these results we suggest this should become a benchmark model in monetary economics

how large are search frictions textabstractthis paper presents strong evidence for the concavity of wages in job and worker characteristics by adding second order terms to a mincerian earnings function for 6 oecd countries under a standard normality assumption this concavity cannot be attributed to unobserved components in those characteristics an assignment model with search frictions provides a parsimonious explanation for our findings this model yields two restrictions on the coefficients which fit the data very well the impact of search frictions on wages is large our results relate to the literature on industry wage differentials on structural identification in hedonic models and on wage posting versus nash bargaining in search models

self selection and the forecasting abilities of female equity analysts this paper investigates whether there are systematic differences between the forecasting style and abilities of female and male analysts and whether market participants recognize these differences my key conjecture is that only female analysts with superior forecasting abilities enter the profession due to a perception of discrimination in the analyst labor market consistent with this conjecture i find that female analysts issue bolder and more accurate forecasts and their accuracy is higher in market segments in which their concentration is lower further the stock market participants are aware of the male female skill

wage posting and business cycles the canonical framework of burdett and mortensen 1998 derives wage dispersion as the unique equilibrium outcome in a stationary environment with meeting frictions and random search firms derive monopsony power from search frictions and commit to wage offers workers earn rents wages are not compressed to the opportunity cost of work owing to the ability of employed workers to receive additional offers and quit directly from one job into another without experiencing unemployment in previous work moscarini and postel vinay 2016 we explored the implications of this job ladder for the aggregate dynamics of unemployment wages and the firm size distribution at business cycle frequencies the model establishes a natural connection between the average wage growth in the economy and the pace of employer to employer ee transitions through two channels first a composition effect workers typically quit a job when they receive a better offer hence the faster these transitions the higher the pace of reallocation toward high wages and the higher average wage growth second a strategic effect the more opportunities workers have to quit the more aggressive are their employers with their wage responses to try and retain them the first effect benefits only job movers the second both movers and stayers therefore we expect wage growth to be positively related to the pace of ee reallocation for all workers but especially for movers we verify this empirically with longitudinal micro data from the survey of income and program participation sipp

the low skill trap recently it has become popular to argue that certain workers have fallen into a trap in which they have poor skills few job opportunities and a low return on training while others have not this paper demonstrates how such a trap can occur within a simple matching model with rent sharing rent sharing diminishes the worker s incentive to acquire skills however since firms also benefit from training rent sharing likewise induces job creation the subsequent improved matching prospects may offset the initial disincentive to invest however for this mechanism to be effective firms and workers must coordinate their actions if they do not the trap occurs

the structure of licensing contracts industrial organization theory has explored several issues related to licensing but empirical analyses are extremely rare we amass a new and detailed dataset on licensing contracts and use it to present some simple facts concerning licensing behavior our analysis reveals robust cross industries differences in several contractual features such as exclusivity cross licensing ex ante versus ex post technology transfers and licensing to related versus unrelated parties we offer an interpretation of these facts based on cross industry variation in the strength of intellectual property rights

tilting the table the use of preliminary injunctions abstract this paper examines the economic role of preliminary injunctions in legal disputes we present a model in which differences in financing costs drive the use of preliminary injunction and explore the implications of this legal remedy for ex post efficiency and ex ante incentives controlling for the nature of the dispute we examine the relationships between the financial status of litigating parties and whether a preliminary injunction is requested the empirical analysis uses detailed data compiled for a sample of 252 patent suits and reveals patterns generally consistent with those suggested by the model

on the future of macroeconomics a new monetarist perspective this article argues that a pressing goal for macroeconomics is to incorporate financial considerations but we need models with solid microfoundations in particular the use of assets in facilitating exchange as well as different credit or other financial arrangements should be outcomes of not inputs to theories as a preview i suggest that mainstream macro does a good job explaining many phenomena and a financial crisis does not disprove such theory but understanding crises requires better incorporating factors related to money credit banking and liquidity the approach called new monetarist economics can help a lot in this regard

wage rigidity and job creation recent research in macroeconomics emphasizes the role of wage rigidity in accounting for the volatility of unemployment fluctuations we use worker level data from the cps to measure the sensitivity of wages of newly hired workers to changes in aggregate labor market conditions the wage of new hires unlike the aggregate wage is volatile and responds almost one to one to changes in labor productivity we conclude that there is little evidence for wage rigidity in the data

efficient patent pools the paper builds a tractable model of patent pools agreements among patent owners to license sets of their patents it provides a necessary and sufficient condition for patent pools to enhance welfare and shows that requiring pool members to be able to independently license patents matters if and only if the pool is otherwise welfare reducing the paper allows patents to differ in importance asymmetric blocking patterns and licensors to also be licensees we undertake some initial exploration of the impact of pools on innovation the analysis has broader applicability than pools being relevant to a number of co marketing arrangements

public sector wage policy and labor market equilibrium a structural model we develop and estimate a structural model that incorporates a sizable public sector in a labor market with search frictions the wage distribution and the employment rate in the public sector are taken as exogenous policy parameters overall wage distribution and employment rate are determined within the model taking into account the private sector s endogenous response to public sector employment policies job turnover is sector specific and transitions between sectors depend on the worker s decision to accept alternative employment in the same or different sector by comparing the value of employment in the current and prospective jobs the model is estimated on british data by a method of moments we use the model to simulate the impact of various counterfactual public sector wage and employment policies

unemployment and small cap returns the nexus in other work moscarini and postel vinay 2008 2009a we find a distinct cyclical pattern of the relative performance of large and small businesses in terms of net job creation large employers destroy proportionally more jobs during and right after recessions and create proportionally more jobs late in expansions relative to small employers differential size growth between small and large firms is strongly positively correlated with the unemployment rate this pattern is observer both in a 1978 2005 census of u s employers the business dynamics statistics and among listed companies in compustat in this paper we show that this cyclical pattern of relative performance is also reflected in stock returns specifically we show that the difference in returns between benchmark portfolios of small cap stocks and portfolios of large cap stocks is also positively correlated with the unemployment rate financial consultants and fund managers commonly recommend investing in small cap stocks during business cycle recoveries our findings while consistent with that advice pertain to all phases of the business cycle we propose an explanation of both facts based on dynamic competition between employers of different sizes and different productivities the model is a stochastic dynamic version of the job search and wage posting model of kenneth burdett and dale t mortensen 1998 which we analyze in detail in moscarini and postel vinay 2009b it is a job ladder model where smaller firms are smaller because they are less productive offer lower wages therefore are less attractive to workers and less successful in poaching workers out of competing firms this lack of competitiveness on the labor market is more of a drawback

return to experience and initial wage level do low wage workers catch up summary this paper estimates the relationship between initial wage and return to experience we use a mincer like wage model to non parametrically estimate this relationship allowing for an unobservable individual permanent effect in wages and unobservable individual return to experience the relationship between return to experience and unobservable individual ability is negative when conditioning on educational attainment while the relationship between return to experience and educational attainment is positive we link our findings to three main theories of wage growth namely search unobserved productivity and learning and human capital we devise several empirical tests in order to separate the theories we find evidence in favor of the unobserved productivity and learning model and mixed evidence regarding the search model we find no evidence in support of the human capital model copyright 2013 john wiley sons ltd

characteristics of patent litigation a window on competition we examine the patenting behavior of firms in an industry characterized by rapid technological change and cumulative innovation recent survey evidence suggests that semiconductor firms do not rely heavily on patents to appropriate returns to r d yet the propensity of semiconductor firms to patent has risen dramatically since the mid 1980s we explore this apparent paradox by conducting interviews with industry representatives and analyzing the patenting behavior of 95 u s semiconductor firms during 1979 1995 the results suggest that the 1980s strengthening of u s patent rights spawned patent portfolio races among capital intensive firms but it also facilitated entry by specialized design firms copyright 2001 by the rand corporation

tenure experience human capital and wages a tractable equilibrium search model of wage dynamics we develop and estimate an equilibrium job search model of worker careers allowing for human capital accumulation employer heterogeneity and individual level shocks wage growth is decomposed into contributions of human capital and job search within and between jobs human capital accumulation is largest for highly educated workers the contribution from job search to wage growth both within and between job declines over the fi rst ten years of a career the job shopping phase of a working life after which workers settle into high quality jobs using outside o ffers to generate gradual wage increases thus reaping the bene fits from competition between employers

financial analyst characteristics and herding behavior in forecasting this study classifies analysts earnings forecasts as herding or bold and finds that 1 boldness likelihood increases with the analyst s prior accuracy brokerage size and experience and declines with the number of industries the analyst follows consistent with theory linking boldness with career concerns and ability 2 bold forecasts are more accurate than herding forecasts and 3 herding forecast revisions are more strongly associated with analysts earnings forecast errors actual earnings forecast than are bold forecast revisions thus bold forecasts incorporate analysts private information more completely and provide more relevant information to investors than herding forecasts

competition and bias we attempt to measure the effect of competition on bias in the context of analyst earnings forecasts which are known to be excessively optimistic because of conflicts of interest our natural experiment for competition is mergers of brokerage houses which result in the firing of analysts because of redundancy e g one of the two oil stock analysts is let go and other reasons such as culture clash we use this decrease in analyst coverage for stocks covered by both merging houses before the merger the treatment sample to measure the causal effect of competition on bias we find that the treatment sample simultaneously experiences a decrease in analyst coverage and an increase in optimism bias the year after the merger relative to a control group of stocks consistent with competition reducing bias the implied economic effect from our natural experiment is significantly larger than estimates from ols regressions that do not correct for the endogeneity of coverage this effect is much more significant for stocks with little initial analyst coverage or competition

estimating the costs of issuer paid credit ratings we compare the stability and timeliness of credit ratings produced by a traditional issuer paid rating agency moody s investors service and a subscriber paid rater rapid ratings moody s ratings exhibit less volatility but are slower to identify default risk we control for moody s aversion to ratings volatility and still find its ratings lag rapid ratings more importantly accuracy ratios indicate that rapid ratings provides a better ordinal ranking of credit risk we quantify the loss avoidance associated with rapid ratings signals to estimate costs associated with regulatory and contractual systems based on issuer paid ratings the author 2013 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oup com oxford university press

efficient learning and job turnover in the labor market this article nests a continuous time learning model a la jovanovic journal of political economy 92 1984 108 22 into a directed on the job search framework we prove that the socially efficient allocation is separable that is the workers value functions and optimal controls are independent of both the distribution of workers across their current match qualities and the unemployment rate we characterize the dynamics of job transitions in the efficient allocation furthermore when the matching technology is linear our numerical results show that increasing the vacancy creation cost and the speed of learning have ambiguous effects on the unemployment rate and aggregate job transition

wage dispersion over the business cycle abstract in this paper i provide robust evidence that fluctuations in wage dispersion are independent of the business cycle while residual wage dispersion i e dispersion of wages within narrowly defined demographic and skill groups of workers increases during booms and lessens during recessions moreover i show that the procyclical fluctuations in residual wage dispersion are mainly generated by cyclical changes in the upper half of the residual wage distribution

have rating agencies become more conservative implications for capital structure and debt pricing rating agencies have become more conservative in assigning corporate credit ratings over the period 1985 to 2009 holding firm characteristics constant average ratings have dropped by three notches this change does not appear to be fully warranted because defaults have declined over this period firms affected more by conservatism issue less debt have lower leverage hold more cash are less likely to obtain a debt rating and experience lower growth their debt spreads are lower than those of unaffected firms with the same rating which implies that the market partly undoes the impact of conservatism on debt prices this evidence suggests that firms and capital markets do not perceive the increase in conservatism to be fully warranted

the shadow margins of labor market slack we use a mix of new and existing data to develop the aggregate hours gap ahg a novel measure of labor market underutilization our measure differentiates individuals by detailed categories of labor market participation and uses data on their desired work hours as a measure of their potential labor supply we show that desired hours vary widely by demographics and detailed labor force status and that the gap between desired and actual work hours is strongly positively correlated with reported search effort the aggregate hours gap suggests a more sluggish labor market recovery since the great recession than either the official unemployment rate or alternative measures of labor market underutilization modest amounts of underutilization among the part time employed and a substantial degree of underutilization among those out of the labor force account for the disparity the aggregate hours gap also does well in accounting for wage movements over our sample period

patent thickets courts and the market for innovation we study how fragmentation of patent rights and the formation of the court of appeals for the federal circuit cafc affected the duration of patent disputes and thus the speed of technology diffusion through licensing we develop a model of patent litigation which predicts faster settlement when patent rights are fragmented and when there is less uncertainty about court outcomes as was associated with the pro patent shift of the cafc we confirm these predictions empirically using a data set that covers patent suits in u s district courts during the period 1975 2000 finally we analyze how fragmentation affects total settlement delay considering both the reduction in dispute duration and the increase in the number of patent negotiations

patent trolls on markets for technology an empirical analysis of npes patent acquisitions abstract patent trolls or npes appropriate profits from innovation solely by enforcing patents against infringers they are often characterized as relying on low quality patents an assessment that if correct would imply that eradicating such patents would effectively terminate the npe business in this paper we shed light on this issue by empirically analyzing npes patent acquisitions we draw on a unique dataset of 392 u s patents acquired by known npes between 1997 and 2006 which we compare to three control groups of 784 u s patents each acquired by practicing firms we find that the probability that a traded patent is acquired by an npe rather than a practicing entity increases in the scope of the patent in the patent density of its technology field and contrary to common belief in the patent s technological quality our findings thus support recent theoretical propositions about the npe business model showing that npes procure patents that are more likely to be infringed harder to substitute for and robust to legal challenges the fact that npe acquired patents are of significantly higher quality than those in the control group implies that elevating minimum patent quality will not put an end to the npe business and suggests that this business is sustainable in the long run we furthermore discuss the fact that npes are peculiar players on markets for technology insofar as they are solely interested in the exclusion right not in the underlying knowledge we posit that transactions involving npes may only be the tip of the iceberg of patent only transactions a conjecture with strong implications for the efficiency and the study of markets for technologies managerial and policy implications are discussed

equilibrium price dispersion with sequential search abstract the paper studies equilibrium pricing in a product market for an indivisible good where buyers search for sellers buyers search sequentially for sellers but do not meet every seller with the same probability specifically a fraction of the buyers meetings lead to one particular large seller while the remaining meetings lead to one of a continuum of small sellers in this environment the small sellers would like to set a price that makes the buyers indifferent between purchasing the good and searching for another seller the large seller would like to price the small sellers out of the market by posting a price that is low enough to induce buyers not to purchase from the small sellers these incentives give rise to a game of cat and mouse whose only equilibrium involves mixed strategies for both the large and the small sellers the fact that the small sellers play mixed strategies implies that there is price dispersion the fact that the large seller plays mixed strategies implies that prices and allocations vary over time we show that the fraction of the gains from trade accruing to the buyers is positive and nonmonotonic in the degree of market power of the large seller as long as the large seller has some positive but incomplete market power the fraction of the gains from trade accruing to the buyers depends in a natural way on the extent of search frictions

job search with bidder memories this paper revisits the no recall assumption in job search models with take it or leave it offers workers who can recall previously encountered potential employers in order to engage them in bertrand bidding have a distinct advantage over workers without such attachments firms account for this difference when hiring a worker when a worker first meets a firm the firm offers the worker a sufficient share of the match rents to avoid a bidding war in the future the pair share the gains to trade in this case the diamond paradox no longer holds

happy birthday you re fired the effects of an age dependent minimum wage on youth employment flows in the netherlands the dutch minimum wage for workers aged 15 to 23 is defined as a stepwise increasing function of a worker s calendar age using dutch administrative records the author shows that the birthday disc

do job to job transitions drive wage fluctuations over the business cycle we investigate the importance of job to job jj transitions for cyclical wage dynamics by exploiting cross state variation we find that wage growth is tightly linked to variation in the jj transition probability and conditional on this the job finding probability of the unemployed has no explanatory power we investigate the robustness of our results to several caveats and find the result to hold finally we discuss the implications of our findings for competing theories of wage dynamics

an equilibrium model of search unemployment this paper develops a simple general equilibrium model with sequential search in which a nondegenerate wage offer distribution is endogenously determined we use this model to analyze the comparati

recruitment restrictions and labor markets evidence from the postbellum u s south this article studies the effect of recruitment restrictions on mobility and wages in the postbellum u s south i estimate the effects of criminal fines charged for enticement recruiting workers already under contract on sharecropper mobility tenancy choice and agricultural wages i find that a 13 10 increase in the enticement fine lowered the probability of a move by black sharecroppers by 12 daily wages by 1 cent 1 and the returns to experience for blacks by 0 6 per year these results are consistent with an on the job search model where the enticement fine raises the cost of recruiting an employed worker

taxation and redistribution of residual income inequality this paper studies the optimal redistribution of income inequality caused by the presence of search and matching frictions in the labor market we study this problem in the context of a directed search model of the labor market populated by homogeneous workers and heterogeneous firms the optimal redistribution can be attained using a positive unemployment benefit and an increasing and regressive labor income tax the positive unemployment benefit serves the purpose of lowering the search risk faced by workers the increasing and regressive labor tax serves the purpose of aligning the cost to the firm of attracting an additional applicant with the value of an application to society

the declining credit quality of u s corporate debt myth or reality in recent years the number of downgrades in corporate bond ratings has exceeded the number of upgrades leading some to conclude that the credit quality of u s corporate debt has declined however an alternative explanation of this apparent decline in credit quality is that the rating agencies are now using more stringent standards in assigning ratings an ordered probit analysis of a panel of firms from 1978 through 1995 suggests that rating standards have indeed become more stringent implying that at least part of the downward trend in ratings is the result of changing standards bond ratings play a key role in corporate financing and investment decisions a corporation that can issue higher rated bonds usually receives better terms than one that can issue only lower rated bonds by law or policy some investors can purchase only bonds with an investment grade rating a restriction which in some asset pricing models would affect the relative prices of financial assets numerous articles in the popular press have presumed that the credit quality of the debt of u s corporations has been declining over the last couple of decades the comprehensive study by lucas and lonski 1992 of moody s rating changes of corporate debt is consistent with this presumption to cite their statistics in 1970 moody s downgraded 21 issues and upgraded 23 issues but over the following years the number of bonds downgraded began to exceed by substantial margins the number of bonds upgraded and by 1990 moody s downgraded 301 issues and upgraded only 61 their study includes both investment and noninvestment grade bonds but internal data from donaldson lufkin jenrette confirm that this trend also applies to investment grade bonds alone in a somewhat different context grundy 1997 documents similar trends in the ratings of preferred shares over the 1965 to 1990 period as the credit quality of a firm s corporate debt decreases that firm will face a greater probability of financial distress which at the extreme translates into bankruptcy there is some debate as to the effect of financial dis

the patent paradox revisited an empirical study of patenting in the u s semiconductor industry 1979 1995 we examine the patenting behavior of firms in an industry characterized by rapid technological change and cumulative innovation recent survey evidence suggests that semiconductor firms do not rely heavily on patents to appropriate returns to r d yet the propensity of semiconductor firms to patent has risen dramatically since the mid1980s we explore this apparent paradox by conducting interviews with industry representatives and analyzing the patenting behavior of 95 u s semiconductor firms during 1979 1995 the results suggest that the 1980s strengthening of u s patent rights spawned patent portfolio races among capital intensive firms but it also facilitated entry by specialized design firms

employer size or skill group size effect on wages the authors analyze explanations for firm or establishment size effects on wages one theory is that each firm faces an upward sloping supply curve for labor implying that the number of any particular type of worker should matter for his or her level of pay rather than the total number of workers in the firm to test this hypothesis the authors add the log of skill group size to the standard log wage equation results indicate that the traditional employer size effect on wages dwindles away once control for the number of workers of the same skill group educational type as the observed individual within the establishment is added to the equation the skill group size effect on wages is substantial after controlling for both individual and establishment specific heterogeneity a dwindling employer size effect and a significant group size effect remain

do newly founded firms pay lower wages first evidence from germany using a linked employer employee data set for germany this paper analyses wage setting in a cohort of newly founded and other establishments from 1997 to 2001 while theory provides alternative explanations for higher or lower wages in newly founded firms we show empirically that start ups tend to pay lower wages ceteris paribus on average wages in newly founded establishments are 8 lower than in similar incumbent firms this negative wage differential is substantially smaller in eastern than in western germany the wage differ ential is shown to decline over time as the newly founded firms become more mature

long term partnership formation marriage and employment of course marriage and employment are different nevertheless a worker looking for a job a rm looking for worker or a single person looking for a marriage partner face similar problems as all are seeking a long term partner indeed forming long term partnerships is a common occurrence in life there are many other examples business people search for other business people to form a pro table relationship bridge players seek to nd a suitable partners students search for a good university we would all like to nd a good friend etc the problem becomes signi cant if there are substantial differences in the return obtained from forming a partnership with different partners for example employers differ in the wages they offer or in the work environment they provide in such a situation a worker may reject some job offers similarly as many have learned to their cost some make better marriage partners than others the problem is two sided while a worker is evaluating a potential employer the employer is also evaluating the worker it is this two sided aspect of the problem that generates a signi cant interest a worker s willingness to accept employment at a rm depends not only on the characteristics of the rm but also the other possible options open to the worker the better an individual s opportunities elsewhere the more selective he or she will be in evaluating a potential partnership an academic who believes harvard may make an offer in the near future will be more selective in evaluating offers from lesser universities in this way expectations play a role if a single man believes that few if any women will nd him an acceptable marriage partner then he may accept the rst opportunity that presents itself partnership formation typically does not comply with a classic market situation where all participants know everything and all trades take place at zero cost finding a job nding a husband or wife or nding a business partner is a time consuming activity where opportunities typically arrive over time at uncertain intervals of time of course we can act in ways that in uence the arrival rate of potential partner workers go to employment agencies or read help wanted advertisements in newspapers singles of a certain age go to discos or join tennis clubs the literature on search and matching sm see mortensen 1982 and pissarides 1990 for early examples 1 provides an excellent framework for the economic journal 109 june f307 f334 royal economic society 1999 published by blackwell publishers 108 cowley road oxford ox4 1jf uk and 350 main street malden ma 02148 usa

conflict of interest and the credibility of underwriter analyst recommendations brokerage analysts frequently comment on and sometimes recommend companies that their firms have recently taken public we show that stocks that underwriter analysts recommend perform more poorly than buy recommendations by unaffiliated brokers prior to at the time of and subsequent to the recommendation date we conclude that the recommendations by underwriter analysts show significant evidence of bias we show also that the market does not recognize the full extent of this bias the results suggest a potential conflict of interest inherent in the different functions that investment bankers perform

managers with and without style evidence using exogenous variation in a large panel of compustat firms we find that firm policy changes after exogenous ceo departures do not display abnormally high levels of variability casting doubt on the presence of idiosyncratic style effects in policy choices after endogenous ceo departures we do detect abnormally large policy changes these changes are larger when the firm is likely to draw from a deeper pool of replacement ceo candidates suggesting the presence of causal style effects that are anticipated by the board our evidence suggests that managerial styles are not transferred across employers and that standard f tests are inappropriate for identifying style effects the author 2013 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oup com oxford university press

search in cities the aim of this paper is to expose the recent developments of urban search models which incorporate a land market into a search matching framework using these models we will be able to explain why unemployment rates vary within a city how city structure affects workers labor market outcomes how unemployment benefits and the job destruction rate affect the growth of cities and why workers living far away from job centers search less intensively and experience higher unemployment rates than those residing closer to jobs we are also able to explain why as compared to whites black workers spend more time commuting to work but travel less miles and search for jobs over a smaller area

does rating analyst subjectivity affect corporate debt pricing we find evidence of systematic optimism and pessimism among credit analysts comparing contemporaneous ratings of the same firm across rating agencies these differences in perspectives carry through to debt prices and negatively predict future changes in credit spreads consistent with mispricing moreover the pricing effects are the largest among firms that are the most opaque likely exacerbating financing constraints we find that masters of business administration mbas provide higher quality ratings however optimism increases and accuracy decreases with tenure covering the firm our analysis demonstrates the role analysts play in shaping investor expectations and its effect on corporate debt markets

repeated common value auctions with asymmetric bidders abstract this paper considers a first price common value auction with one sided private information among bidders an object is rented each period to the highest bidder without revealing the bids made in previous periods the paper extends single crossing arguments used in static games to show the existence of equilibrium in this repeated auction the model predicts that bidders bid more aggressively in a repeated auction than in a static auction because a higher bid increases the amount of information learned through bidding the aggressive bidding behavior also implies that the per period revenue of the repeated auction is higher than that of the one period counterpart this bidding behavior leads to a theoretical explanation for the winner s curse in repeated auctions in addition the model yields predictions like an increasing wage schedule over time and the institution of a signing bonus that are consistent with labor market observations