estimating residential demand for electricity in greece abstract this paper examines the residential demand for electricity in greece the issues of structural stability price and income sensitivity of both long and short run residential demand for electricity in greece were examined employing monthly data over the period 1986 1999 the long run residential demand for electricity is estimated taking into account changes in weather conditions weighted by the size of the population employing multivariate framework analysis a long run residential demand function for electricity sensitive to real income price level and weather conditions is found to exist and the importance of short run deviations is presented using vector error correction model vecm estimation the empirical evidence suggests the presence of a stable residential demand for electricity in greece both in the long and short run periods and the policy implications of such a relationship are presented

banking in computable general equilibrium economies abstract in this paper we develop a computable general equilibrium economy that models the banking sector explicitly banks intermediate between households and between the household sector and the government sector households borrow from banks to finance their purchases of houses and they lend to banks to save for retirement banks pool households savings and they purchase interest bearing government debt and non interest bearing reserves we use this structure to answer two sets of questions one normative in nature that evaluates the welfare costs of alternative monetary and tax policies and one positive in nature that studies the real effects of following a procyclical interest rate policy rule

winners and losers in housing markets this paper is a quantitatively oriented theoretical study into the interaction between housing prices aggregate production and household behaviour over a lifetime we develop a life cycle model of a production economy in which land and capital are used to build residential and commercial structures we find that in an economy where the share of land in the value of structures is large housing prices react more to an exogenous change in expected productivity or the world interest rate causing large redistribution effects between net buyers and net sellers of houses changing the financing constraint however has limited effects on housing prices

effects of demand side management on chinese household electricity consumption empirical findings from chinese household survey abstract china s residential electricity demand has grown rapidly over the last three decades and given the expected continued growth demand side management dsm can play an important role in reducing electricity demand by using micro level data collected from 1450 households in 27 provinces in the first ever china residential energy consumption survey in 2012 this study estimates the effects of three dsm measures empirically tiered household electricity pricing china energy label program and information feedback mechanisms we find these measures have contributed to moderating residential electricity demand growth but additional policy reform and tools are needed to increase their effectiveness and impact residential electricity demand is found to be price and income inelastic and tiered pricing alone may not be as effective in electricity conservation the statistically significant relationship between china energy label efficient refrigerators but not televisions and lowered residential electricity consumption reflect mixed program effectiveness lastly of the information feedback currently available through electricity bills payment frequency and meters only meter reader is estimated to be statistically significant important policy implications and recommendations for improving each of these three dsm measures to expand their impact on reducing residential electricity consumption are identified

the demographic deficit abstract there has been a slowdown in growth in the world s most advanced economies in this paper we argue that changing demographics in particular aging populations combined with increased life expectancy may be part of the explanation for why we observe slower growth falling interest rates and falling productivity growth using japan and the u s in the years prior to the financial crises as a case study we provide estimates of the growth deficit that arises from an aging cohort structure and increasing life expectancy we also provide projections of the impact of predictable demographic changes on future growth in the u s and japan

credit supply and the housing boom an increase in credit supply driven by looser lending constraints in the mortgage market is the key force behind four empirical features of the housing boom before the great recession the unpreced

housing portfolio choice and the macroeconomy abstract this paper investigates the properties of the wealth distribution and the portfolio composition regarding housing and equity holdings and their relationship to macroeconomic shocks to this end i construct a business cycle model in which agents differ in age income and wealth housing provides shelter services and serves as collateral for loans the model is consistent with several facts such as the life cycle pattern of housing to wealth ratios the larger degree of concentration for non housing wealth the smaller weight of housing in richer households portfolios as well as the larger housing to wealth ratios in recessions in addition the model shows that while relaxing the collateral constraint does not impact the business cycle dynamics for the entire economy it significantly alters the behavior of residential and business investment for the younger and poorer fraction of the population

electricity demand response to price changes the portuguese case taking into account income differences abstract in this paper we study the behavior of electricity use in portuguese households using microdata from five independent surveys our sample covers the period from 1989 to 2010 which was characterized by major changes in the country we adopt the pseudo panel methodology creating 350 cohorts based on the size of the household the type of location rural or urban the region and the income quintile our results show relatively high medium long run own price elasticities indicating that an increase in the electricity price due to for instance policy intervention would in fact decrease electricity use cross price elasticities indicate that electricity and gas are substitutes additionally the income quintiles analysis shows significant differences in the elasticities depending on the income group hence political interventions in the electricity sector may have important redistributive effects

nonlinear effects of mortgage spreads over the business cycle this paper provides robust evidence for the nonlinear effects of mortgage spread shocks during recessions and expansions in the united states estimating a smooth transition vector autoregression stvar model we show that mortgage spread shocks hitting in a recessionary phase create significantly deeper and more protracted declines in consumption and housing market variables in addition we provide evidence that these mortgage spread shocks could be largely interpreted as credit supply shocks in the mortgage market our empirical results imply that unconventional monetary policy such as the federal reserve s mortgage backed security purchase program would be a more effective tool for stabilizing the economy during recessions than in expansions

rain and the democratic window of opportunity according to the economic approach to political transitions negative transitory economic shocks can give rise to a window of opportunity for democratic change we examine this hypothesis using yearly rainfall variation over the 1980 2004 period in 41 sub saharan african countries we find that a 25 drop in rainfall increases the probability of a transition to democracy during the following two years by around 3 percentage points a 5 fall in income due to low rainfall raises the probability of democratization by around 7 percentage points we also find that rainfall does not affect transitions from democracy to autocracy

state level implications of federal tax policies abstract the united states federal fiscal policy has differential impact across states we construct a new quarterly state level dataset that we use to analyze the impact of unexpected changes in federal personal and corporate income taxes we find substantial heterogeneity across states with more than half having no significant response to the tax cuts in addition less capital intensive states have larger responses to corporate tax cuts although puzzling in standard models a model with corporate and non corporate sectors is consistent with this evidence overall our results suggest the importance of variation and reallocation across states in evaluating federal policy

energy consumption and urban sprawl evidence for the spanish case residential electricity consumption constitutes one of the largest sources of spanish final energy demand to improve electricity savings policies oriented towards efficiency in residential consumption such as replacement of appliances or the construction of nearly zero energy buildings have been suggested and implemented however the potential relevance of urban structural characteristics such as the increase in detached houses in sprawling residential areas has not often been considered the aim of this research is to analyse the relevance of living in a detached house located in a dispersed urban area to household electricity consumption thus an electricity consumption model is estimated by using household socioeconomic variables and including urban characteristics as its determinants such us the level of urban agglomeration or whether families live in detached sprawling homes the model is estimated by using 2014 household budget survey hbs microdata and applying ordinary least squares ols as well as quantile regressions qr as econometric procedures endogeneity problems are corrected by means of instrumental variables the results confirm that living in a detached house significantly increases electricity consumption whereas urban agglomerations have the opposite effect sprawl is occurring rapidly in spanish cities and according to our results it could constitute a relevant source of increase in electricity demand in the following years

the impact of supply constraints on house prices in england we test the theoretical prediction that house prices respond more strongly to changes in local earnings in places with tight supply constraints using a unique panel dataset of 353 local planning authorities in england between 1974 and 2008 exploiting exogenous variation from a policy reform vote shares and historical density to identify the endogenous constraints measures we find that regulatory constraints have a substantive positive impact on the house price earnings elasticity the effect of constraints due to scarcity of developable land is largely confined to highly urbanised areas and uneven topography has a quantitatively less meaningful impact

the wealth distribution with durable goods in the united states the distribution of houses is less egalitarian than that of earnings for the total population but these two distributions are remarkably similar for homeowners additionally housing as a fraction of total wealth decreases with the level of wealth in order to understand the different factors that account for these wealth composition patterns we introduce illiquid houses and collateral credit in a general equilibrium model of heterogeneous agents with idiosyncratic uncertainty a combination of very persistent shocks to earnings frictions in the housing market and a rental market is necessary to obtain numbers in line with the evidence

modelling household energy expenditures using micro data this paper is concerned with the empirical modeling of domestic demand for energy in the united kingdom at the level of the individual household a two stage budgeting model of household demand for energy conditional on durable ownership is developed at the first stage income is allocated between energy and nonenergy consumption while at the second stage energy expenditure is disaggregated the second stage allocation is assumed to be between gas electricity and a composite good other fuels estimation takes place using a sample of some 50 000 households drawn from the annual u k family expenditure survey for the years 1972 83 a source that has not been fully exploited in the analysis of energy demand to date copyright 1989 by royal economic society

the dynamics of electricity demand in pakistan a panel cointegration analysis abstract this paper examines the dynamics of electricity demand in pakistan at the aggregate and sectoral levels over the period 1978 2012 panel cointegration test and fully modified ordinary least squares method is employed to determine the long run relationship between electricity consumption real income real price of electricity and domestic price of non energy products the results reveal that electricity demand is more responsive to changes in income than changes in prices at the aggregate and disaggregate levels short run and long run income elasticities are positive and statistically significant supporting the conservation hypothesis it appears from the results that long run price elasticities are negative and significant at the aggregate level and for the agriculture commercial residential sectors and public utilities the short run price elasticities are significant but low in magnitude which implies that changes in electricity price exert minimal effect on the electricity consumption in pakistan the domestic price of non energy products is positive and significant for aggregate sample in the short run the domestic price of non energy products exert significant negative positive impact on electricity demand in the agriculture industrial sectors the results thus provide important information to the agents operating in the electricity market regarding the income and pricing policies and helps in planning the future strategy of electricity demand management

household electricity end use consumption results from econometric and engineering models information about total electricity consumption is available for most households however the electricity consumption related to different end uses e g space heating lighting and services from household appliances are usually not metered metering data are costly to achieve and in this paper we study two methods for end use estimation which can be applied on household data for appliance holdings demographic and economic variables the first method is the engineering model which has been used to calculate the so far only documented norwegian end use results applied on data from a norwegian energy survey the second method is an econometric conditional demand model applied on data from the same survey we compare the numerical results from the two models and give some recommendations regarding choice of end use approach and what questions to implement in household surveys designed to disaggregate electricity consumption

micro and macro labor supply elasticities a reassessment of conventional wisdom the response of aggregate labor supply to various changes in the economic environ ment is central to many economic issues especially the optimal design of tax policies conventional wisdom based on studies in the 1980s and 1990s has long held that the analysis of micro data leads one to conclude that aggregate labor supply elasticities are quite small in this paper we argue that this conventional wisdom does not hold up to empirically reasonable and relevant extensions of simple life cycle models that served as the basis for these conclusions in particular we show that several pieces of conventional wisdom fail in the presence of human capital accumulation or labor supply decisions that allow for adjustment along both the extensive and intensive margin we conclude that previous estimates of small labor supply elasticities based on micro data are fully consistent with large aggregate labor supply elasticities jel d91 e24 j22

the demand for residential industrial and total electricity 1973 1998 this paper estimates residential industrial and total electricity demand by a partial adjustment approach and by a simultaneous equation approach simultaneous equation models are more appropriate since they provide negative price elasticity estimates for the residential industrial and total electricity samples flow adjustment models yield positive price elasticity estimates in some cases suggesting they fail to identify proper supply considerations that may be influencing prices the simultaneous equation approach suggests that residential customers are more price sensitive than industrial customers weather seems to have the greatest impact on the residential sector and cold weather appears to affect demand more than hot weather

mortgage debt consumption and illiquid housing markets in the great recession using a model with housing search endogenous credit constraints and mortgage default this paper accounts for the housing crash from 2006 to 2011 and its implications for aggregate and cross sectional consumption during the great recession left tail shocks to labor market uncertainty and tighter down payment requirements emerge as the key drivers an endogenous decline in housing liquidity amplifies the recession by increasing foreclosures contracting credit and depressing consumption balance sheets act as a transmission mechanism from housing to consumption that depends on gross portfolio positions and the leverage distribution low interest rate policies accelerate the recovery in housing and consumption

the economics of density evidence from the berlin wall this paper develops a quantitative model of internal city structure that features agglomeration and dispersion forces and an arbitrary number of heterogeneous city blocks the model remains tractable and amenable to empirical analysis because of stochastic shocks to commuting decisions which yield a gravity equation for commuting flows to structurally estimate agglomeration and dispersion forces we use data on thousands of city blocks in berlin for 1936 1986 and 2006 and exogenous variation from the city s division and reunification we estimate substantial and highly localized production and residential externalities we show that the model with the estimated agglomeration parameters can account both qualitatively and quantitatively for the observed changes in city structure we show how our quantitative framework can be used to undertake counterfactuals for changes in the organization of economic activity within cities in response for example to changes in the transport network

cross sectional patterns of mortgage debt during the housing boom evidence and implications the reallocation of mortgage debt to low income or marginally qualified borrowers plays a central role in many explanations of the early 2000s housing boom we show that such a reallocation never occurred as the distribution of mortgage debt with respect to income changed little even as the aggregate stock of debt grew rapidly moreover because mortgage debt varies positively with income in the cross section equal percentage increases in debt among high and low income borrowers meant that wealthy borrowers accounted for most new debt in dollar terms previous research stressing the importance of low income borrowing was based on the inflow of new mortgage originations alone so it could not detect offsetting outflows in mortgage terminations that left the allocation of debt stable over time and while defaults on subprime mortgages played an important part in the financial crisis the data show that subprime lending did not cause a reallocation of debt toward the poor rather subprime lending prevented a reallocation of debt toward the wealthy

macroeconomic implications of agglomeration cities exist because of the productivity gains that arise from clustering production and workers a process called agglomeration how important is agglomeration for aggregate growth this paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of cities and uses it to estimate the effect of local agglomeration on aggregate growth we combine aggregate time series and city level panel data to estimate the model s parameters via generalized method of moments the estimates imply a statistically and economically significant impact of local agglomeration on the growth rate of per capita consumption raising it by about 10

optimal transition from coal to gas and renewable power under capacity constraints and adjustment costs this paper studies the optimal transition from existing coal power plants to gas and renewable power under a carbon budget it solves a model of polluting exhaustible resources with capacity constraints and adjustment costs to build coal gas and renewable power plants it finds that optimal investment in renewable energy may start before coal power has been phased out and even before investment in gas has started because doing so allows for smoothing investment over time and reduces adjustment costs gas plants may be used to reduce short term investment in renewable power and associated costs but must eventually be phased out to allow room for carbon free power one risk for myopic agents comparing gas and renewable investment is thus to overestimate the lifetime of gas plants e g when computing the levelized cost of electricity and be biased against renewable power these analytical results are quantified with numerical simulations of the european commission s 2050 energy roadmap

accounting for the u s earnings and wealth inequality we show that a theory of earnings and wealth inequality based on the optimal choices of ex ante identical households that face uninsured idiosyncratic shocks to their endowments of efficiency labor units accounts for the u s earnings and wealth inequality almost exactly

elasticities of electricity demand in urban indian households abstract in the past several electricity demand studies have been published for india based on aggregate macro data at the country or sub national state level since the underlying theory of consumer demand is based on the behaviour of individual agents the use of micro data which reflects individual and household behaviour more closely can shed greater light on the nature of consumer responses in this paper seasonal price and income elasticities of electricity demand in the residential sector of all urban areas of india are estimated for the first time using disaggregate level survey data for about 30 000 households three electricity demand functions have been econometrically estimated using monthly data for the winter monsoon and summer season in order to understand the extent to which factors like income prices household size and other household specific characteristics influence variations observed in individual households electricity demand the results show electricity demand is income and price inelastic in all three seasons and that household demographic and geographical variables are significant in determining electricity demand

tourism and temperature effects on the electricity consumption of the hospitality sector abstract the european union has recently presented a strategic long term vision for a climate neutral economy by 2050 considering that climate change is a serious concern for europeans a great socio economic transformation is necessary affecting all economic sectors on the one hand the european union considers that it is necessary to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 on the other hand sectors need to adapt to a warming climate focusing on the tourism sector and using panel data referring to 12 spanish mediterranean provinces and the 1999 2014 time period this study tests the tourist stays and temperature effects on the electricity consumption of the hospitality sector by estimating extended energy environmental kuznets curves for the sector the results show that this curve is not supported instead electricity consumption progressively increases as tourism grows in addition the results indicate that temperature variables have notable influence over electricity use with a positive influence of global warming on electricity consumption finally results also show positive relationships between overnight stays in hotels with higher star ratings and electricity use while no significant price effects are observed electricity saving measures and renewable electricity generation promotion are recommended especially in the highest energy consuming establishments

indivisible labor and the business cycle abstract a growth model with shocks to technology is studied labor is indivisible so all variability in hours worked is due to fluctuations in the number employed we find that unlike previous equilibrium models of the business cycle this economy displays large fluctuations in hours worked and relatively small fluctuations in productivity this finding is independent of individuals willingness to substitute leisure across time this and other findings are the result of studying and comparing summary statistics describing this economy an economy with divisible labor and post war u s time series

monetary policy and us housing expansions the case of time varying supply elasticities we challenge the assumption in the literature of constant housing supply elasticities across housing expansions using a time varying parameter tvp var model on monthly us data since the early 1990s we find that the response of housing supply to an expansionary monetary policy shock relative to the response of house prices has declined substantially since the great financial crisis gfc our findings are consistent with research suggesting that land use regulation has tightened absent major reversions in regulation our results point to a post covid 19 housing recovery characterised by a sluggish response of housebuilding to demand but a relatively stronger response of house prices

saving and liquidity constraints this paper is concerned with the theory of saving when consumers are not permitted to borrow and with the ability of such a theory to account for some of the stylized facts of saving behavior the models presented in the paper seem to account for important aspects of reality that are not explained by traditional life cycle models copyright 1991 by the econometric society

residential electricity demand in spain new empirical evidence using aggregate data this paper presents an empirical analysis on residential demand for electricity this analysis has been performed using aggregate panel data at the province level for 47 spanish provinces for the period from 2000 to 2008 for this purpose we estimated a log log demand equation for electricity consumption using a dynamic partial adjustment approach this dynamic demand function has been estimated using a two step system gmm estimator proposed by blundell and bond 1998 the purpose of this empirical analysis is to highlight some of the characteristics of spanish residential electricity demand particular attention has been paid to the influence of price income and weather conditions on electricity demand the estimated short and long run own price elasticities are negative as expected but lower than 1 furthermore weather variables have a significant impact on electricity demand

booms and busts consumption house prices and expectations over much of the past 25 years house price and consumption growth have been closely synchronized three main hypotheses for this have been proposed increases in house prices raise household wealth and so their consumption house price growth reduces credit constraints by increasing the collateral available to homeowners and house prices and consumption are together influenced by common factors using microeconomic data we find that the relationship between house prices and consumption is stronger for younger than older households contradicting the wealth channel we suggest that common causality has been the most important factor linking house prices and consumption

tarnishing the golden and empire states land use restrictions and the u s economic slowdown abstract this paper studies the impact of state level land use restrictions on u s economic activity focusing on how these restrictions have depressed macroeconomic activity since 2000 we use a variety of state level data sources together with a general equilibrium spatial model of the united states to systematically construct a panel dataset of state level land use restrictions between 1950 and 2014 we show that these restrictions have generally tightened over time particularly in california and new york we use the model to analyze how these restrictions affect economic activity and the allocation of workers and capital across states counterfactual experiments show that deregulating existing urban land from 2014 regulation levels back to 1980 levels would have increased us gdp and productivity roughly to their current trend levels california new york and the mid atlantic region expand the most in these counterfactuals drawing population out of the south and the rustbelt general equilibrium effects particularly the reallocation of capital across states account for much of these gains

house prices borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle i develop a general equilibrium model with sticky prices credit constraints nominal loans and asset prices changes in asset prices modify agents borrowing capacity through collateral value changes in nominal prices affect real repayments through debt deflation monetary policy shocks move asset and nominal prices in the same direction and are amplified and propagated over time the financial accelerator is not constant across shocks nominal debt stabilises supply shocks making the economy less volatile when the central bank controls the interest rate i discuss the role of equity debt indexation and household and firm leverage in the propagation mechanism finally i find that monetary policy should not target asset prices as a means of reducing output and inflation volatility

housing taxation and capital accumulation this paper studies the impact of the preferential tax treatment of housing capital in a dynamic general equilibrium life cycle economy populated by heterogeneous individuals the model includes the main housing tax provisions currently in place in the u s and a minimum downpayment requirement upon purchasing non divisible houses the tax code makes the return on housing capital larger than that on business capital which distorts the lifetime profile and composition of individuals savings the wedge between the two rates of return emanates from the failure to tax imputed rents and is amplified by the presence of mortgage interest deductibility simulations show that individuals at all income levels would rather live in a world where imputed rents are taxed or one where mortgage interest payments are not deductible furthermore distributional effects are much smaller than conventionally believed

humps and bumps in lifetime consumption in this article we argue that the life cycle model that allows demographics to affect household preferences and relaxes the assumption of certainty equivalence can generate hump shaped consumption profiles over age that are very similar to those observed in household level data sources and in particular match the differences in shape across different education groups liquidity constraints or myopia are not required to explain the empirical features of observed life cycle patterns

a simpler theory of optimal capital taxation abstract this paper develops a theory of optimal capital taxation that expresses optimal tax formulas in sufficient statistics we first consider a simple model with utility functions linear in consumption and featuring heterogeneous utility for wealth in this case there are no transitional dynamics the steady state is reached immediately and has finite elasticities of capital with respect to the net of tax rate this allows for a tractable optimal tax analysis with formulas expressed in terms of empirical elasticities and social preferences that can address many important policy questions these formulas can easily be taken to the data to simulate optimal taxes which we do using u s tax return data on labor and capital incomes second we show how these results can be extended to the case with concave utility for consumption the same types of formulas carry over by appropriately defining elasticities we show that one can recover all the results from the simpler model using a new and non standard steady state approach that respects individual preferences even with a fully general utility function

optimal fiscal policy in the neoclassical growth model revisited this paper studies optimal taxation in a version of the neoclassical growth model in which investment becomes productive within the period thereby making the supply of capital elastic in the short run because taxing capital is distortionary in the short run the government s ability desire to raise revenues through capital income taxation in the initial period or when the economy is hit with a bad shock is greatly curtailed our timing assumption also leads to a tractable ramsey problem without state contingent debt which can give rise to debt financed budget deficits during recessions

elasticities of electricity demand in india abstract the paper examines econometric relationship between electricity consumption and variables like income price of electricity and diesel used in for captive power generation to meet the shortages and reliability of power supply from utilities in five major consumer categories in india these categories are residential commercial agriculture small and medium industries and large industries income and price elasticities of electricity consumption are estimated at the national level for these consumers by pooling data across 19 states spread over 9 years 1985 86 1993 94 the results show that electricity consumption in commercial and large industrial sectors are income elastic 1 while residential agricultural and small and medium industries are income inelastic

income and wealth heterogeneity in the macroeconomy how do movements in the distribution of income and wealth affect the macroeconomy we analyze this question using a calibrated version of the stochastic growth model with partially uninsurable idiosyncratic risk and movements in aggregate productivity our main finding is that in the stationary stochastic equilibrium the behavior of the macroeconomic aggregates can be almost perfectly described using only the mean of the wealth distribution this result is robust to substantial changes in both parameter values and model specification our benchmark model whose only difference from the representative agent framework is the existence of uninsurable idiosyncratic risk displays far less cross sectional dispersion and skewness in wealth than u s data however an extension that relies on a small amount of heterogeneity in thrift does succeed in replicating the key features of the wealth data furthermore this extension features aggregate time series that depart significantly from permanent income behavior

phasing out the gses we develop a new model of the mortgage market where both borrowers and lenders can default risk tolerant savers act as intermediaries between risk averse depositors and impatient borrowers the government plays a crucial role by providing both mortgage guarantees and deposit insurance underpriced government mortgage guarantees lead to more and riskier mortgage originations as well as to high financial sector leverage mortgage crises occasionally turn into financial crises and government bailouts due to the fragility of the intermediaries balance sheets increasing the price of the mortgage guarantee crowds in the private sector reduces financial fragility leads to fewer but safer mortgages lowers house prices and raises mortgage and risk free interest rates due to a more robust financial sector consumption smoothing improves and aggregate welfare increases while borrowers are nearly indifferent to a world with or without mortgage guarantees savers are substantially better off while aggregate welfare increases so does wealth inequality jel g12 g15 f31

regional impact of changes in disposable income on spanish electricity demand a spatial econometric analysis this paper presents an empirical analysis of residential electricity demand considering the existence of spatial effects this analysis has been performed using aggregate panel data at the province level for 46 spanish provinces for the period from 2001 to 2010 for this purpose we estimated a log log demand equation using a spatial autoregressive model with autoregressive disturbances sarar the purpose of this empirical analysis is to determine the influence of price income and spatial spillovers on residential electricity demand in spain we are particularly interested in analyzing the impact of household disposable income variation across provinces observed during the economic crisis period 2009 2010 the estimation results show relatively low income elasticity and an inelastic demand to prices furthermore the results show the presence of spatial effects in spanish residential electricity consumption

fulfilling the kyoto protocol in spain a matter of economic crisis or environmental policies abstract in 2008 spain exceeded by 20 9 the co2 emissions allowed by the kyoto protocol for 2012 the financial and economic crisis has transformed these figures as production fell so did energy demand and with it co2 emissions will the spanish economic crisis allow spain to fulfill its commitments with this in mind we have developed an extended input output model able to forecast energy demand and compute co2 emissions linked to the consumption of energy goods petroleum products gas and coal the results show that the crisis and in particularly the stagnation of the construction industry is only one of the pillars which help to contain these emissions at 6 81 the possibility of incorporating environmental policies new technologies and increases in the price of crude oil in these simulations means an even greater reduction of emissions than the impact of the crisis 9 76 the final result of our most pessimistic realistic scenario is that in 2012 spain will exceed its co2 emissions linked to the combustion of energy goods by only 0 9

who marries whom in a surging housing market abstract this paper investigates the impact of a surging housing market on marital sorting our empirical analysis shows that there is increasing assortativeness on original family background in response to housing price appreciation that is for husbands when the down payment doubles one more year of paternal schooling predicts a marriage in which the father in law s schooling is 0 057 year greater than in a scenario in which the down payment does not increase the rising assortativeness could exacerbate the already expanding inequality caused by the booming housing market in addition to the benchmark analysis we find that a divorce reform which awards assets proportionate to the shares the spouses paid for the initial down payment rather than awarding equal shares upon divorce alleviates assortativeness the evidence suggests that joint investment in housing is likely to be a significant consideration in marital sorting

leverage and the foreclosure crisis how much of the foreclosure crisis can be explained by the large number of high leverage mortgages originated during the housing boom in our model heterogeneous households select from mortgages with different down payments and choose whether to default given income and housing shocks the use of low down payment loans is initially limited by payment to income requirements but becomes unrestricted during the boom the model approximates key housing and mortgage market facts before and after the crisis a counterfactual experiment suggests that the increased number of high leverage loans originated prior to the crisis can explain over 60 percent of the rise in foreclosure rates

consumption over the life cycle facts from consumer expenditure survey data this paper uses consumer expenditure survey data and a seminonparametric statistical model to estimate life cycle profiles of consumption controlling for demographics cohort and time effects we construct age profiles for total and nondurable consumption as well as expenditure patterns for consumer durables special emphasis is placed on the comparison of different approaches to control for changes in demo graphics over the life cycle we find significant humps over the life cycle for total nondurable and durable expenditures changes in household size account for roughly half of these humps bootstrap simulations suggest that our empirical estimates are tight in that standard errors are small

the determinants and welfare implications of us workers diverging location choices by skill 1980 2000 abstract from 1980 to 2000 the rise in the us college high school graduate wage gap coincided with increased geographic sorting as college graduates concentrated in high wage high rent cities this paper estimates a structural spatial equilibrium model to determine causes and welfare consequences of this increased skill sorting while local labor demand changes fundamentally caused the increased skill sorting it was further fueled by endogenous increases in amenities within higher skill cities changes in cities wages rents and endogenous amenities increased inequality between high school and college graduates by more than suggested by the increase in the college wage gap alone jel d31 i26 j24 j31 j61 r23

an empirical analysis of the fiscal incidence of renewable energy support in the european union abstract in liberalised energy markets electricity from renewable energy re using solar pv and wind turbines requires financial support because the expected number of generation hours is insufficient to induce private investment such support has a direct cost from the additional expenditure over what would have been incurred had fossil fuel generation been used and indirect costs arising from the random and distributed nature of the re output comparing european union countries between 2007 and 2017 we find the pricing structure of retail electricity is regressive and correlated to reliance upon re although initially the direct and indirect costs of re affects integrated utilities and aggregators the ultimate burden largely falls upon lower income cohorts given policy objectives for re these finding are worrisome though as a society we may benefit from reducing dependence upon fossil fuels the burden of this transition falls upon those with the lowest income raising questions over fairness explaining the reasons for fiscal regressiveness leads to suggestions on how it may be redressed

sensitivity of price elasticity of demand to aggregation unobserved heterogeneity price trends and price endogeneity evidence from u s data abstract price elasticity estimates of residential electricity demand vary widely across the energy economics and policy literature in this paper we seek to explain these findings using three nationwide datasets from the u s the american housing survey forms eia 861 and the residential energy consumption survey we examine the role of the sample period level of aggregation use of panel data use of instrumental variables and inclusion of housing characteristics and capital stock our findings suggest that price elasticities have remained relatively constant over time upon splitting our panel datasets into annual cross sections we do observe a negative relationship between price elasticities and the average price whether prices are rising or falling appears to have little effect on our estimates we also find that aggregating our data can result in both higher and lower price elasticity estimates depending on the dataset used and that controlling for unit level fixed effects with panel data generally results in more inelastic demand functions addressing the endogeneity of price and or measurement error in price with instrumental variables has a small but noticeable effect on the price elasticities finally controlling for housing characteristics and capital stock produces a lower price elasticity

assessing competition in canada s financial system a note in a recent article in this journal alli nathan and edwin neave 1989 hereafter nn presented an empirical assessment of the state of competition in several sectors of the canadian financial services industry namely banking trust and mortgage firms this assessment was carried out by estimating the panzar rossel pr statistic 1987 using cross sectional data for 1982 1983 and 1984 on the basis of the value of this statistic the authors conclude that banks usually appear to exhibit more competitive behaviour than the other two sectors but that the data rejects the hypothesis of monopolistic or oligopolistic behaviour in any of the three industries examined this note argues that none of these conclusions is supported by the nn results and that the pr statistic is generally inadequate for competitive assessment purposes in an oligopoly at any rate the statistical form of the test is not consistent with the use made of its results in what follows we present a brief discussion of the nn results in connection with the pr statistic since this statistic is not well known we also include a brief exposition of its properties

policy implications of considering pre commitments in u s aggregate energy demand system abstract linear approximations of the generalized almost ideal demand system and almost ideal demand system for u s energy are compared to contrast the explicit inclusion and exclusion of pre committed consumption levels results indicate that pre commitment levels the quantity of a good that is consumed in the short run with little regard for price helps to better explain energy demand in the u s compared to the system that does not explicitly consider pre commitments policy implications are if pre commitments are a legitimate assumption larger price changes are necessary to achieve a given policy objective than if there are no pre commitments

residential electricity demand in taiwan this paper examines the residential demand for electricity in taiwan as a function of household disposable income population growth the price of electricity and the degree of urbanization short and long term effects are separated through the use of an error correction model in the long run the income elasticity is unit elastic the own price effect is negative and inelastic in an error correction framework the short run income and price effects are small and less than the long run effects cooling degree day effects have a positive impact on short run consumption we have used a proxy variable urbanization to capture economic development characteristics and changes in electricity using capital stocks not explained by income the variable provides significant explanatory power to the model both in the short and long run we interpret it as controlling for economic development factors not captured by the pure income effect and we think it holds promise for explaining residential electricity consumption in other developing countries

estimation of elasticity price of electricity with incomplete information abstract the sharp increase in energy prices and growing concern for environmental issues among other things are behind the renewed interest in energy demand estimation however there is scarce academic literature that takes real situation of energy suppliers into account high quality but incomplete data in this paper we propose a useful and rather simple instrument for estimating electricity demand with the incomplete and or imperfect data currently available to suppliers in particular using real expenditure and consumption data on electricity we employ a model of random effects for panel data to estimate residential and industrial electricity demand in spain

competitive conditions among the major british banks this paper reports an empirical assessment of competitive conditions among the major british banks during a period of major structural change specifically estimates of the rosse panzar h statistic are reported for a panel of 12 banks for the period 1980 2004 the sample banks correspond closely to the major british banking groups specified by the british banking association the robustness of the results of the rosse panzar methodology is tested by estimating the ratio of lerner indices obtained from interest rate setting equations the results confirm the consensus finding that competition in british banking is most accurately characterised by the theoretical model of monopolistic competition there is evidence that the intensity of competition in the core market for bank lending remained approximately unchanged throughout the 1980s and 1990s however competition appears to have become less intense in the non core off balance sheet business of british banks

efficient allocations with hidden income and hidden storage we consider an environment in which individuals receive income shocks that are unobservable to others and can privately store resources we provide a simple characterization of the unique efficient allocation of consumption in cases in which the rate of return on storage is sufficiently high or alternatively in which the worst possible outcome is sufficiently dire we show that unlike in environments without unobservable storage the symmetric efficient allocation of consumption is decentralizable through a competitive asset market in which individuals trade riskfree bonds among themselves in this paper we consider an environment in which individuals have random income and can accumulate assets through a storage technology their income realizations and their asset position are private information given these informational frictions we provide a simple characterization of the unique efficient allocation of consumption in cases in which the rate of return on storage is sufficiently high or alternatively in which the worst possible outcome is sufficiently dire we show that the symmetric efficient allocation of consumption is decentralizable through a competitive asset market in which individuals trade risk free bonds among themselves there is a large prior literature which examines the characteristics of efficient risksharing in dynamic settings in the presence of private information unlike our paper this literature generally finds that efficient allocations do not coincide with the equilibrium allocations of any economy with a competitive bond market see atkeson and lucas 1992 in particular the key difference between our paper and these preceding ones is that the earlier literature assumes either that agents cannot accumulate resources over time or that if they can this accumulation is observable in contrast we assume that both agents incomes and their stored resources are private information it is this combination of assumptions that leads to our result our findings are reminiscent of allen s 1985 he considers a dynamic principalagent relationship in which the agent is risk averse and has hidden stochastic income the

joint dynamics of house prices and foreclosures this paper studies the joint transitional dynamics of the foreclosures and house prices in a standard life cycle incomplete markets model with housing and a realistic long term mortgage structure we calibrate our model to match several long term features of the u s housing market and analyze the effects of several unexpected and permanent shocks on the house price and the foreclosure rate both across the steady states and along the transition between the steady states we examine permanent unexpected shocks to the risk free interest rate the minimum down payment ratio and unemployment during the transition these shocks create large movements in house prices more importantly the foreclosure dynamics are quite significant along the transition compared to the steady state changes and there are strong feedbacks between foreclosures and house prices we assess the effects of a temporary reduction in the risk free interest rate which has moderate effects on house prices but little effect on foreclosure dynamics we also study the effects of an ex ante macroprudential policy which establishes a minimum down payment requirement at a higher threshold such a macroprudential policy helps substantially stabilize both house prices and foreclosures

non structural measures of competition toward a synthesis of alternatives abstract procedures for detecting or measuring market power have been suggested in recent years by iwata rosse and panzar and bresnahan this paper integrates elements from all three approaches to provide a single more unified alternative to the structure conduct performance paradigm

industrial companies demand for electricity evidence from a micropanel abstract the paper presents a micro econometric analysis of industrial companies demand for electricity previous studies on electricity consumption in the industrial sector have relied on aggregate data or cross section observations here we present an econometric study on electricity demand based on a panel of 2949 danish companies followed from 1983 to 1996 it is found that estimators of electricity demand that take account of the panel structure fixed effect models yield considerably lower price and production elasticities compared to estimators that do not like cross section models it is also investigated how various company characteristics like size type of industrial sub sector and electricity intensity in production influence price and production elasticities it appears that companies with a high electricity intensity also have a high own price elasticity

the risk free rate in heterogeneous agent incomplete insurance economies abstract why has the average real risk free interest rate been less than one percent the question is motivated by the failure of a class of calibrated representative agent economies to explain the average return to equity and risk free debt i construct an economy where agents experience uninsurable idiosyncratic endowment shocks and smooth consumption by holding a risk free asset i calibrate the economy and characterize equilibria computationally with a borrowing constraint of one year s income the resulting risk free rate is more than one percent below the rate in the comparable representative agent economy

home is where the equity is mortgage refinancing and household consumption applying a permanent income model with exogenous liquidity constraints and mortgage behavior household refinancing when mortgage interest rates are historically high and rising a persistent empirical puzzle is explained using data from the panel study of income dynamics households experiencing an unemployment shock and having limited initial liquid assets to draw upon are shown to have been 25 more likely to refinance 1991 94 on average such liquidity constrained households converted over two thirds of every dollar of equity they removed into current consumption as mortgage rates plummeted 1991 94 producing an estimated expenditure stimulus of at least 28 billion

the demand for electricity in israel quarterly data for israel are used to compare and contrast three dynamic econometric methodologies for estimating the demand for electricity by households and industrial companies these are the dynamic regression model and two approaches to cointegration ols and maximum likelihood since we find evidence of seasonal unit roots in the data we also test for seasonal cointegration we find that the scale elasticities are similar in all three approaches but the ols price elasticities are considerably lower moreover ols suggests non cointegration the paper concludes by stochastically simulating the drms to calculate upside risk in electricity demand

the residential demand for electricity in australia an application of the bounds testing approach to cointegration this paper reports estimates of the long and short run elasticities of residential demand for electricity in australia using the bounds testing procedure to cointegration within an autoregressive distributive lag framework in the long run we find that income and own price are the most important determinants of residential electricity demand while temperature is significant some of the time and gas prices are insignificant our estimates of long run income elasticity and price elasticity of demand are consistent with previous studies although they are towards the lower end of existing estimates as expected the short run elasticities are much smaller than the long run elasticities and the coefficients on the error correction coefficients are small consistent with the fact that in the short run energy appliances are fixed