analzying trade offs between machine investment and utilization analyzing machine investment opportunities from a systems perspective requires an understanding of interdependencies between machine investment and utilization decisions machine investment decisions involve determining the number of machines to purchase and their types machine utilization decisions involve determining part allocations and production cycles interdependencies between these decisions result in trade offs between investment and operating costs this paper develops an analytical approach for studying machine investment opportunities in a broad systems context it begins with a discussion of the interdependencies between investment and utilization decisions the focus of this research and a review of existing literature related to machine investment decisions are then discussed next a mathematical model that quantifies these interdependencies is formulated the paper ends with a simple example that demonstrates the usefulness of the model and highlights the importance of using a systems app

operating flexibility global manufacturing and the option value of a multinational network the multinational corporation is a network of activities located in different countries the value of this network derives from the opportunity to benefit from uncertainty through the coordination of subsidiaries which are geographically dispersed we model this coordination as the operating flexibility to shift production between two manufacturing plants located in different countries a stochastic dynamic programming model treats explicitly this flexibility as equivalent to owning an option the value of which is dependent upon the real exchange rate the model is extended to analyze hysteresis effects and within country growth options we show that the management of across border coordination has led to changes in the heuristic rules used for performance evaluation and transfer pricing

does diversification destroy value evidence from the industry shocks does corporate diversification reduce shareholder value since firms endogenously choose to diversify exogenous variation in diversification is necessary to draw inferences about the causal effect we examine changes in the within firm dispersion of industry investment or diversity we find that exogenous changes in diversity due to changes in industry investment are negatively related to firm value thus diversification destroys value consistent with the inefficient internal capital markets hypothesis measurement error does not cause this finding we also find that exogenous changes in industry cash flow diversity are negatively related to firm value r 2002 elsevier science s a all rights reserved jel classification g34

optimal flexibility configurations in newsvendor networks going beyond chaining and pairing we study the classical problem of capacity and flexible technology selection with a newsvendor network model of resource portfolio investment the resources differ by their level of flexibility where level k flexibility refers to the ability to process k different product types we present an exact set theoretic methodology to analyze newsvendor networks with multiple products and parallel resources this simple approach is sufficiently powerful to prove that i flexibility exhibits decreasing returns and ii the optimal portfolio will invest in at most two adjacent levels of flexibility in symmetric systems and to characterize iii the optimal flexibility configuration for asymmetric systems as well the optimal flexibility configuration can serve as a theoretical performance benchmark for other configurations suggested in the literature for example although chaining is not optimal in our setting the gap is small and the inclusion of scale economies quickly favors chaining over pairing we also demonstrate how this methodology can be applied to other settings such as product substitution and queuing systems with parameter uncertainty

flexibility and uncertainty the preserving of flexibility when faced with uncertainty is a neglected aspect of behaviour under risk yet it is an important factor in decisions to hold liquid assets or delay irreversible investment this paper formalizes the notion of flexibility in a sequential decision context and relates its value to the amount of information an agent expects to receive a rudimentary money demand model is developed embodying these ideas and the history of flexibility as an economic concept is traced choices are frequently made between alternatives that imply different degrees of future commitment between a short term investment that leaves future options open for example and a long term one that by its very nature forecloses those options the relative attractiveness of the two depends on their probability distributions of payoffs over time a basic consideration in this choice is the recognition that beliefs about the risks governing these payoffs may change current doubts may be partially resolved in the near future this prospect decreases the attractiveness of the longer term commitment in that one is able to respond less fully to new information and even if it does not directly affect the risks associated with shorter term choices enhances their appeal this paper formalizes the above remarks by establishing connections between the following two partial orderings the first is an ordering based on variability of beliefs one set of beliefs is more variable than another if more final risk is resolved at an intermediate stage the more one expects to learn by an intermediate period relative to what one knows today the more variation one is anticipating in beliefs about the final outcome the second is an ordering of current actions or positions based on flexibility one position is more flexible than another if it leaves available a larger set of future positions at any given level of cost these two orderings are incorporated in a simple sequential decision model to suggest the following behavioural principle the more variable are a decision maker s beliefs the more flexible is the position he will choose this principle potentially applies whenever i there will be opportunities to act after further information is received and ii current actions influence either the attractiveness or availability of different future actions

the optimal mix of flexible and dedicated manufacturing capacities hedging against demand uncertainty abstract a firm that faces uncertain demands for several product groups needs to decide how much of relatively inexpensive dedicated capacity and how much of more expensive flexible capacity to acquire we model this situation as a two stage decision problem investment and allocation we pay particular attention to the dependence of acquisition policy on existing capacities as most firms facing the problem are not likely to be entirely new we show that if initial capacities are lower than the levels that would be optimal in absence of initial capacities the investment decision is a simple acquire up to optimal levels for each capacity type however if some initial capacity is too high the optimal additions to others depend on its value in a non linear yet intuitive fashion we also pose the issue of choosing the degree of flexibility as the realized product mix will affect the performance of partially flexible machines

technology investment under flexible capacity strategy with demand uncertainty abstract this paper investigates technology investment under flexible capacity strategy with demand uncertainty technology investment enables a firm to reduce its total production cost while flexible capacity strategy aims to reduce a firm s production waste by postponing production until demand is known adopting a general technology investment cost we examine how technology investment cost structure affects a firm s technology investment decisions we derive the conditions under which the firm will benefit from technology investment we show that the firm can increase its expected profit through technology investment only when the unit technology investment cost that varies inversely with the basic technology level is below a threshold however even though the technology investment cost is zero the benefit from the increase in technology level is limited furthermore we analytically determine the optimal technology levels and establish their relationships under different technology investment cost structures our findings will help firms evaluate various technology investment options and choose the most proper one

allocation of flexible and indivisible resources with decision postponement and demand learning we consider a firm that uses two perishable resources to satisfy two demand types resources are flexible such that each resource can be used to satisfy either demand type resources are also indivisible such that the entire resource must be allocated to the same demand type this type of resource flexibility can be found in different applications such as movie theater complexes cruise lines and airlines in our model customers arrive according to independent poisson processes but the arrival rates are uncertain thus the manager can learn about customer arrival rates from earlier demand figures and potentially increase the sales by postponing the resource allocation decision we consider two settings and derive the optimal resource allocation policy for one setting and develop a heuristic policy for the other our analysis provides managerial insights into the effectiveness of different resource allocation mechanisms for flexible and indivisible resources

multi resource investment strategies operational hedging under demand uncertainty abstract consider a firm that markets multiple products each manufactured using several resources representing various types of capital and labor and a linear production technology the firm faces uncertain product demand and has the option to dynamically readjust its resource investment levels thereby changing the capacities of its linear manufacturing process the cost to adjust a resource level either up or down is assumed to be linear the model developed here explicitly incorporates both capacity investment decisions and production decisions and is general enough to include reversible and irreversible investment the product demand vectors for successive periods are assumed to be independent and identically distributed the optimal investment strategy is determined with a multi dimensional newsvendor model using demand distributions a technology matrix prices product contribution margins and marginal investment costs our analysis highlights an important conceptual distinction between deterministic and stochastic environments the optimal investment strategy in our stochastic model typically involves some degree of capacity imbalance which can never be optimal when demand is known

estimating the reduction in labor hours due to a new technology under uncertain demand abstract when investing in a new machine one must estimate the reduced labor costs in the past this was usually done in a deterministic way assuming that we have accurate point estimation of demand rates and the reduction in labor costs is proportional to the reduction in labor hours however if demand rates of products are known probabilistically the expected reduction in labor hours follows a probability distribution this distribution not just the mean value is important because 1 it shows the effect of the uncertainty in demand on estimating the reduction in labor hours and 2 it allows better estimation of labor cost savings when labor costs are not proportional to labor hours using the distribution of product demand rates this paper presents a procedure for estimating the distribution of reduction in labor hours obtained from a new machine

supply capacity acquisition and allocation with uncertain customer demands we study a class of capacity acquisition and assignment problems with stochastic customer demands often found in operations planning contexts in this setting a supplier utilizes a set of distinct facilities to satisfy the demands of different customers or markets our model simultaneously assigns customers to each facility and determines the best capacity level to operate or install at each facility we propose a branch and price solution approach for this new class of stochastic assignment and capacity planning problems for problem instances in which capacity levels must fall between some pre specified limits we offer a tailored solution approach that reduces solution time by nearly 80 over an alternative approach using a combination of commercial nonlinear optimization solvers we have also developed a heuristic solution approach that consistently provides optimal or near optimal solutions where solutions within 0 01 of optimality are found on average without requiring a nonlinear optimization solver

internal capital markets and the competition for corporate resources this article examines the role of corporate headquarters in allocating scarce resources to competing projects in an internal capital market unlike a bank headquarters has control rights that enable it to engage in winner picking the practice of actively shifting funds from one project to another by doing a good job in the winner picking dimension headquarters can create value even when it cannot help at all to relax overall firm wide credit constraints the model implies that internal capital markets may sometimes function more efficiently when headquarters oversees a small and focused set of projects this article analyzes the process by which internal capital markets channel limited resources to different uses inside a company in so doing it seeks to address two related sets of questions first what is the fundamental economic rationale for creating an internal capital market that is under what circumstances can it make sense to combine several technologically distinct projects under one roof and have them seek funding from corporate headquarters as opposed to setting them up as stand alone companies that each raise external financing on their own second given this rationale what is the optimal size and scope of an internal capital market should headquarters be involved in funding a large number of projects or just a few and should these projects be unrelated to one another or in similar lines of business the answers to both sets of questions flow from the insight that in a credit constrained setting where not all positive npv projects can be financed headquarters can create value by actively reallocating scarce funds across projects for example the cash flow generated by one division s activities may be taken and spent on investment in another division where the returns are higher or alternatively one division s assets may be used as collateral to raise financing that is then diverted to the other division simply put individual projects must compete for the scarce funds and headquarters job is to pick the winners and losers in this competition

dynamic capacity management with substitution we examine a multiperiod capacity allocation model with upgrading there are multiple product types corresponding to multiple classes of demand and the firm purchases capacity of each product before the first period within each period after demand arrives products are allocated to customers customers who arrive to find that their product has been depleted can be upgraded by at most one level we show that the optimal allocation policy is a simple two step algorithm first use any available capacity to satisfy same class demand and then upgrade customers until capacity reaches a protection limit so that in the second step the higher level capacity is rationed we show that these results hold both when all capacity is salvaged at the end of the last demand period as well as when capacity can be replenished in the latter case an order up to policy is optimal for replenishment although finding the optimal protection limits is computationally intensive we describe bounds for the optimal protection limits that take little effort to compute and can be used to effectively solve large problems using these heuristics we examine numerically the relative value of strictly optimal capacity and dynamic rationing the value of perfect demand information and the impact of demand and economic parameters on the value of optimal substitution

inventory pooling under heavy tailed demand risk pooling has been studied extensively in the operations management literature as the basic driver behind strategies such as transshipment manufacturing flexibility component commonality and drop shipping this paper explores the benefit of risk pooling in the context of inventory management using the canonical model first studied in eppen eppen gd 1979 effects of centralization on expected costs in a multi location newsboy problem management sci 25 5 498 501 specifically we consider a single period multilocation newsvendor model where n different locations face independent and identically distributed demands and linear holding and backorder costs we show that eppen s celebrated result i e that the expected cost savings from centralized inventory management scale with the square root of the number of locations depends critically on the light tailed nature of the demand uncertainty in particular we establish that the benefit from pooling relative to the decentralized case in term

vertical flexibility in supply chains jordan and graves jordan w c s c graves 1995 principles on the benefits of manufacturing process flexibility management sci 41 4 577 594 initiated a stream of research on supply chain flexibility which was furthered by graves and tomlin graves s c b t tomlin 2003 process flexibility in supply chains management sci 49 7 907 919 that examined various structures for achieving horizontal flexibility within a single level of a supply chain in this paper we extend the theory of supply chain flexibility by considering placement of vertical flexibility across multiple stages in a supply chain specifically we consider two types of flexibility logistics flexibility and process flexibility and examine how demand production and supply variability at a single stage impacts the best stage in the supply chain for each type of flexibility under the assumptions that margins are the same regardless of flexibility location capacity investment costs are the same within and across stages a

competition under capacitated dynamic lot sizing with capacity acquisition lot sizing and capacity planning are important supply chain decisions and competition and cooperation affect the performance of these decisions in this paper we look into the dynamic lot sizing and resource competition problem of an industry consisting of multiple firms a capacity competition model combining the complexity of time varying demand with cost functions and economies os scale arising from dynamic lot sizing costs is developed each firm can replenish inventory at the beginning of each period in a finite planning horizon fixed as well as variable production costs incur for each production setup along with inventory carrying costs the individual production lots of each firm are limited by a constant capacity restriction which is purchased up front for the planning horizon the capacity can be purchased from a spot market and the capacity acquisition cost fluctuates with the total capacity demand of all the competing firms we solve the competition model and establish the existence of a capacity equilibrium over the firms and the associated optimal dynamic lot sizing plan for each firm under mild conditions

competitive incentives for manufacturing flexibility abstract a game theoretic model is used in this paper to analyze firms incentives to acquire product flexibility the degree of product flexibility is determined by the cost a firm must incur to produce a new product the model helps to identify characteristics of industries which are likely to encourage product flexibility strategies the model suggests that firms in industries where the ratio of price to variable cost is high are likely to expend more effort to increase product flexibility this hypothesis is then tested empirically

optimal investment strategies for flexible resources considering pricing and correlated demands we study the optimal resource investment decision faced by a two product price setting firm that operates in a monopolistic setting and employs a postponed pricing scheme the firm has the option to invest in dedicated resources as well as a more expensive flexible resource that can satisfy both products while the resource investment decision is made under demand uncertainty pricing and resource allocation decisions are postponed to the time when demand curves are realized our analysis provides the structure of the firm s optimal resource investment strategy as a function of demand parameters and investment costs and shows that the flexible resource investment decision follows athreshold policy we also show that it can be optimal for the firm to invest in the flexible resource even when demand patterns are perfectly positively correlated the reason for flexible capacity investment in this case is financial rather than risk pooling on the other hand we show that it can be optimal for the firm not to invest in the flexible resource even when demand patterns are perfectly negatively correlated the flexible resource investment decision in this case depends on the profitability of the two products based on our analysis we provide principles on the firm s optimal resource investment decision

resource flexibility with responsive pricing this article studies two types of flexibility used by firms to better respond to uncertain market conditions resource flexibility and responsive pricing we consider a situation in which a single flexible resource can be used to satisfy two distinct demand classes while the resource capacity must be decided based on uncertain demand functions the resource allocation as well as the pricing decision are made based on the realized demand functions we characterize the effects of two key drivers of flexibility demand variability and demand correlation assuming normally distributed demand curve intercepts demand variability creates opportunity costs and with fixed prices decreases the firm s profit we show that with the additional flexibility gained from responsive pricing the firm can maximize the benefits of favorable demand conditions and mitigate the effects of poor demand conditions ultimately profiting from variability positive demand correlation on the other hand remains undesirable under responsive pricing the optimal capacity of the flexible resource is always increasing in both demand variability and demand correlation this contrasts with the scenarios based on fixed prices highlighting the crucial difference that responsive pricing makes in the management of flexible resources we further quantify the value of flexibility for the firm and its customers by considering as a benchmark a firm relying on two dedicated resources the value of flexibility is most significant if the demand levels are highly variable and negatively correlated in such cases the firm benefits from demand variability due to responsive pricing while facing limited demand risk due to resource flexibility finally we endogenize the input price of the flexible resource by considering the pricing decision of the resource supplier

meta data envelopment analysis finding a direction towards marginal profit maximization abstract this paper discusses a new meta dea approach to solve the problem of choosing direction vectors when estimating the directional distance function the proposed model emphasizes finding the direction for productivity improvement rather than estimating the score of efficiency focusing on planning over evaluation in fact the direction towards marginal profit maximization implies a step by step improvement and wait and see decision process which is more consistent with the practical decision making process an empirical study of u s coal fired power plants operating in 2011 validates the proposed model the results show that the efficiency measure using the proposed direction is consistent with all other indices with the exception of the direction towards the profit maximized benchmark we conclude that the marginal profit maximization is a useful guide for determining direction in the directional distance function

the impact of budget constraints on flexible vs dedicated technology choice this paper studies the flexible versus dedicated technology choice and capacity investment decisions of a multiproduct firm under demand uncertainty in the presence of budget constraints the firm operates under a capital budget for financing the capacity investment and an operating budget which is uncertain in the capacity investment stage for financing the production we investigate how the tightening of the capital budget and a lower financial flexibility in the production stage the likelihood of having a sufficient operating budget shape the optimal technology choice we find that the dominant regime is one where dedicated technology should be adopted for a larger investment cost range and thus is the best response to the tighter capital budget whereas flexible technology is the best response to lower financial flexibility we identify the key roles that the capacity intensity the ratio of unit capacity cost to total unit capacity and production cost of each technology and the pooling value

is it inefficient investment that causes the diversification discount diversified conglomerates are valued less than matched portfolios of pure play firms recent studies find that this diversification discount results from conglomerates inefficient allocation of capital expenditures across divisions much of this work uses tobin s q as a proxy for investment opportunities therefore hypothesizing that q is a good proxy this paper treats measurement error in q using a measurement error consistent estimator on the sorts regressions in the literature i find no evidence of inefficient allocation of investment the results in the literature appear to be artifacts of measurement error and of the correlation between investment opportunities and liquidity diversif ied conglomerates appear to trade at a discount relative to matched portfolios of pure play firms studies documenting this stylized fact include lang and stulz 1994 berger and ofek 1995 comment and jarrell 1995 and servaes 1996 recent empirical work has sought to find the source of this diversification discount building on the theoretical work in milgrom and roberts 1990 stein 1997 and scharfstein and stein 2000 on the inefficiency of internal capital markets this literature has asked specifically whether diversified firms allocate their capital expenditures inefficiently across divisions the canonical answer has been yes and has been supported by two types of evidence first studies such as lamont 1997 shin and stulz 1998 shin and park 1998 and rajan servaes and zingales 2000 all find that internal capital markets in conglomerates transfer funds across divisions in a suboptimal manner second studies such as berger and ofek and scharfstein 1998 provide evidence suggesting that the divisions of conglomerates do not respond adequately to investment opportunities in comparison to single segment firms however these findings about divisional investment may be an artifact of measurement error most of these studies rely on tobin s q the market value of the capital stock divided by its replacement value as a proxy for investment opportunities and tobin s q is likely to be a poor proxy shin and stulz

industry divestiture waves how a firm s position influences investor returns because of the opaque nature of divestitures investors face considerable uncertainty in evaluating divestiture decisions and thus may look to a firm s social context defined in terms of the per

mountain or molehill downward biases in the conglomerate discount measure abstract the berger and ofek 1995 excess value measure comparing a conglomerate s actual market value to an imputed value based on standalones has become the standard method to determine value effects of diversification in this paper we address a significant bias in this procedure stemming from the difference in cash holdings between diversified and standalone firms excess values are based on firm values including corporate cash positions as standalones hold significantly more cash the imputed cash value is higher than the conglomerate s actual cash value resulting in a downward biased excess value we thus propose to calculate excess values based on enterprise values replacing total debt by net debt based on an extensive us sample we show that there is significantly less evidence of a diversification discount when adjusting for the cash bias in terms of average dollar losses the firm value based models overestimate the conglomerate discount by at least 25 apart from removing the cash bias we propose a second modification to the excess value measure arguing that standalone industry multipliers should be calculated using geometric mean aggregation instead of median aggregation

information asymmetry valuation and the corporate spin off decision we empirically analyze the information hypothesis that the separation of a rm s divisions into independently traded units through a spin o enhances value because it mitigates information asymmetry about the rm consistent with this hypothesis we nd that rms that engage in spin o s have higher levels of information asymmetry compared to their industry and size matched counterparts and the information problems decrease signi cantly after the spin o the gains around spin o s are positively related to the degree of information asymmetry and this relation is more pronounced for rms with fewer negative synergies between divisions finally rms with higher growth opportunities and rms in need of external capital show a higher propensity to engage in spin o s they also raise more capital following a spin o which is consistent with the view that

inclusion of flexibility benefits in discounted cash flow analyses for investment evaluation a simulation optimization model abstract it has been argued that conventional discounted cash flow dcf techniques which are commonly used for investment justification are inadequate and may even be inappropriate for the justification of advanced manufacturing systems whose strategic value comes from such attributes as flexibility the problem lies in the proper estimation of the value of flexibility in financial or cash flow terms so that the dcf techniques which are otherwise conceptually sound become relevant this involves an assessment of the value of the flexibility of the manufacturing system in dealing with the uncertainties in its operating environment we propose a simulation optimization methodology for this assessment in cash flow terms and use it in a dcf framework we use simulation to generate the environmental parameters in each period of an appropriate evaluation horizon we develop a mathematical programming model to determine the distribution of the possible net revenues of the system in each period by capturing the combined effect of the different types of flexibilities that the manufacturing system may possess we illustrate the application of our methodology using numerical examples and discuss how it can be used to assess the value of flexibility in cash flow terms we show that our approach facilitates the justification of capital investment in advanced manufacturing systems which tend to get undervalued under the traditional dcf approaches it would also help managers address such important questions as how much incremental investment should we be willing to make now for the additional flexibility features and does the expected present value of the future benefits of added flexibility justify the incremental capital investment now in essence our paper addresses the question as to appropriate techniques or approaches for justifying proposed strategic investment decisions

strategic investments trading and pricing under forecast updating this paper considers two independent firms that invest in resources such as capacity or inventory based on imperfect market forecasts as time progresses and new information becomes available the firms update their forecasts and have the option to trade their resources the trade contract is determined as the bargaining equilibrium or alternatively as the price equilibrium assuming a fairly general form of the profit functions we characterize the nash equilibrium investment levels which are first best under the price equilibrium trade contract but not under the bargaining equilibrium trade contract to gain additional insights we then focus on firms that face stochastic demand functions with constant price elasticity and have contingent pricing power assuming a general forecast evolution process we characterize the impact of the option to trade and the firms cooperation on equilibrium investments expected prices profits and consumer surplus finally to study the main driving forces of trading we employ a well established and empirically tested forecast updating model in which the forecast evolution process follows a two dimensional geometric brownian motion under this model we prove that the equilibrium investments expected prices profits and consumer surplus are nondecreasing in the quality and timing of forecast revisions in market variability and in foreign exchange volatility but are nonincreasing in market correlation

the impact of conglomeration on the option value of equity abstract using contingent claims analysis i quantify the effect of risk reducing corporate diversification on the value of equity as a call option on firm assets the impact of conglomeration on firm risk is heavily conditioned on firm size in contrast to small firms the risk of large firms does not decline with increasing conglomeration accounting for this effect the expected equity discount is much lower than commonly assumed and can even turn into a premium if the path dependency of equity is incorporated my results stand in direct contrast to those of mansi and reeb 2002 and caution against using asset substitution as a qualitative argument for explaining economy wide value phenomena

modeling process switching decisions under product life cycle uncertainty abstract we address the process switching decision of a firm that adopts a mixed process strategy with respect to a new product in the context of product life cycle uncertainty a mixed process strategy uses a flexible process in the early stages of the product s life cycle and later switches to a dedicated process to gain cost economies we present a model that captures uncertainty through alternative life cycle demand functions to guide the process switching decision we develop a dynamic decision rule that can be used with any uncertainty resolution scheme and demonstrate its application and robustness using an illustrative numerical example

managing flexible capacity in a make to order environment flexible capacity has been shown to be very effective to hedge against forecast errors at the investment stage in a make to order environment this flexibility can also be used to hedge against variability in customer orders in the short term for that purpose production levels must be adjusted each period to match current demands to give priority to the higher margin product or to satisfy the closest customer however this will result in swings in production inducing larger order variability at upstream suppliers and significantly higher component inventory levels at the manufacturer through a stylized two plant two product capacitated manufacturing setting we show that the performance of the system depends heavily on the allocation mechanism used to assign products to the available capacity although managers would be inclined to give priority to higher margin products or to satisfy customers from their closest production site these practices lead to greater swings in production result in higher operational costs and may reduce profits

inventory management under price based and stockout based substitution abstract we examine a stochastic inventory and pricing problem for a firm that sells two vertically differentiated products the demands for the two products are determined by total random market size and the customers net utility from buying the two products which is determined by the products quality attributes the individual quality valuation unknown to the firm and the selling prices in case the preferred product is out of stock customers may be willing to buy a substitute instead if their net utility is non negative therefore we analyze an inventory and pricing model considering price based and stockout based substitution we show that the demand function is not continuous in price by decomposing the profit function into different price regimes we are able to derive closed form expressions for the stockout based substitution rates upward and downward substitution and the optimal inventory levels under exogenous pricing under endogenous pricing we find that the profit function is not necessarily unimodal however we show that a unique solution exists for the integrated price and inventory problem under price based substitution only numerical results reveal that not considering stockout based substitution i leads to lower profit margins for high quality products and ii may cause severe supply demand mismatches throughout the entire assortment finally we show the performance of two approximated pricing policies

spin offs divestitures and conglomerate investment we examine whether spin offs or divestitures cause improvements in conglomerate investment efficiency at issue are endogeneity of these restructuring decisions and correct measurement of investment efficiency endogeneity is a problem because the factors that induce firms to spin off or divest divisions may also improve investment efficiency measurement error is a problem because efficiency measures employ tobin s q as a noisy proxy for investment opportunities we find important differences between firms that divest or spin off and a control sample after accounting for these differences and for measurement error in q we find no evidence of improvements in investment efficiency

strategic facility location capacity acquisition and technology choice decisions under demand uncertainty robust vs non robust optimization approaches abstract this paper presents a robust optimization ro modeling approach to develop insights into strategic capacity planning and resource acquisition decisions including the facility location problem and the technology choice problem the main purpose of the proposed model and numerical experiments is to examine the effects of economies of scale economies of scope and the combined effects of scale and scope under uncertain demand realizations using robust optimization the type of capacities or technology alternatives that a firm can acquire can be classified on two basic dimensions the first dimension relates to the effects of scale via distinction between labor intensive technologies and capital intensive technologies the second dimension relates to the effects of scope via distinction between product dedicated and flexible technologies moreover each product dedicated and flexible technology can have different levels of labor or capital intensity leading to the joint effects of economies of scale and economies of scope extensive computational results document how the optimal technology choice patterns depend on the cost structures and levels of model robustness specified to accommodate uncertain demand realizations the results obtained by the two stage robust optimization approach are compared to the results obtained by a non robust approach

divisional diversity and the conglomerate discount evidence from spinoffs abstract existing literature argues that disparity in investment opportunities within diversified firms can erode firm value we investigate the diversity cost hypothesis of spinoffs by using post spinoff data to 1 reconstruct the diversified firm after the spinoff and assess the aggregate improvement in value and 2 relate any value improvements to changes in diversity we find that improvements in aggregate value depend significantly on changes in both a direct measure of diversity and measures based on industry proxies we conclude that diversification discounts at least partially reflect a value loss due to the diversified nature of the firm itself rather than selection bias or measurement error

long term capacity decisions in uncertain markets for advanced manufacturing systems incorporating scope economies abstract by examining the literature in the field of manufacturing flexibility many researchers have located several form of flexibility by distinguishing them into strategic and operational flexibility forms furthermore many measures and design methods have been proposed for flexible manufacturing systems surely scope economies are one of the most important strategic form of flexibility in manufacturing systems and their strategic impact has been acknowledged by the very beginning of the flexible manufacturing era however despite several researches are available to address scope economies measurement and design methodologies very few researches investigate their economic convenience in front of dedicated manufacturing systems depending on the competitive market conditions this paper proposes a theoretical model whose main aim is the general understanding of the convenience conditions of scope economies based manufacturing systems the results of the theoretical model are very interesting because they locate market conditions that make scope economies manufacturing systems less profitable than dedicated manufacturing ones moreover the proposed model sets some general criteria to guide the entrepreneur in making right investment decision regarding this kind of manufacturing investments such results can explain the reason of many failures of flexible manufacturing systems and it suggests the use of this kind of approach to investigate other flexibility forms of manufacturing systems the ultimate goal of this research is the construction of a decision support system for supporting the entrepreneur in making decision on advanced manufacturing systems investment decisions

competition and investment in flexible technologies this paper examines the implications of market structure on investment in flexible manufacturing systems fms we analyze a two stage game in which firms choose between a flexible and a less flexible technology in the first stage then choose production quantities in the second stage in equilibrium a large proportion of fms firms is associated with more concentrated markets our model predicts that a larger market and or a more differentiated product results in a higher proportion of fms firms being sustained these predictions are empirically supported using cross section industry level data from both the us and japan

coordinating the resource investment decision for a two market price setting firm abstract we study the capacity investment decision of a two product firm that is a price setter for both products the products are of varying complexities such that the resource that can be used to produce the higher level product can also be used to produce the lower level one but not vice versa although the firm needs to make its capacity investment decision under demand uncertainty it can utilize this limited downward resource flexibility in addition to pricing to more effectively match its supply with demand as an example consider a firm that owns a main plant satisfying both end product and intermediate product demand and a subsidiary satisfying the intermediate product demand only we formulate this decision problem as a two stage stochastic programming problem with recourse and analyze the impact of coordinated decision making when the resource flexibility is taken into account in the investment decision and demand correlation on the firm s optimal investment strategy our results offer managerial principles on the firm s optimal resource investment strategy

dynamic capacity management with general upgrading this paper studies a capacity management problem with upgrading a firm needs to procure multiple classes of capacities and then allocate the capacities to satisfy multiple classes of customers that arrive over time a general upgrading rule is considered i e unmet demand can be satisfied using multistep upgrade no replenishment is allowed and the firm has to make the allocation decisions without observing future demand we first characterize the structure of the optimal allocation policy which consists of parallel allocation and then sequential rationing specifically the firm first uses capacity to satisfy the same class demand as much as possible then considers possible upgrading decisions in a sequential manner we also propose a heuristic based on certainty equivalence control to solve the problem numerical analysis shows that the heuristic is fast and delivers close to optimal profit for the firm finally we conduct extensive numerical studies to derive insights into the problem it is foun

dedicated vs product flexible production technology strategic capacity investment choice this paper studies the optimal investment strategies of an incumbent and a potential entrant that can both choose between a product flexible and dedicated technology in a two product market characterized by uncertain demand the product flexible production technology has certain advantages especially when the economic environment is uncertain on the other hand the dedicated production technology allows a firm to commit to production quantities this gives strategic advantages which can outweigh the value of flexibility it turns out that both firms prefer for some scenarios the dedicated production technology however we find that in a game with sequential technology choices both firms investing dedicated will not be an equilibrium especially when the economic environment is more uncertain the incumbent overinvests in product flexible capacity to force the entrant to choose the dedicated technology then the incumbent is the only firm with the product flexible production technology which results in a high payoff

strategic technology choice and capacity investment under demand uncertainty this paper studies the impact of competition on a firm s choice of technology product flexible or product dedicated and capacity investment decisions specifically we model two firms competing with each other in two markets characterized by price dependent and uncertain demand the firms make three decisions in the following sequence choice of technology technology game capacity investment capacity game and production quantities production game the technology and capacity games occur while the demand curve is still uncertain and the production game is postponed until after the demand curve is revealed we develop best response functions for each firm in the technology game and compare how a monopolist and a duopolist respond to a given flexibility premium we show that the firms may respond to competition by adopting a technology which is the same as or different from what the competitor adopts we conclude that contrary to popular belief flexibility is not always the best response to competition flexible and dedicated technologies may coexist in equilibrium we demonstrate that as the difference between the two market sizes increases a duopolist is willing to pay less for flexible technology whereas the decision of a monopolist is not affected further we find that a firm that invests in flexibility benefits from a low correlation between demands for two products but the extent of this benefit differs depending on the competitor s technology choice our results indicate that higher demand substitution may or may not promote the adoption of flexibility under competition whereas it always facilitates the adoption of flexibility without competition finally we show that contrary to intuition as the competitor s cost of capacity increases the premium a flexible firm is willing to pay for flexibility decreases

optimal capacity for substitutable products under operational postponement abstract we consider a monopolist producing two substitutable products with one flexible shared capacity the demand of each product is a linear function of the prices of both products and is subject to an additive shock we study the impact of two key drivers namely the degree of substitution between the products and the level of operational postponement on the optimal capacity and the resulting expected profit we show that the relationship between the optimal capacity and the degree of product substitution is not impacted by the different postponement strategies the firm can utilize or by the different settings forced clearance versus holdback considered in the previous literature on the other hand how capacity is affected by postponement critically depends on how closely substitutable the products are in particular we show that the well known result that operational postponement and capacity are strategic complements in a single product setting van mieghem and dada 1999 no longer holds in our setting because the two substitutable products are now linked through consumer driven substitution which the firm can influence through pricing in particular capacity and operational postponement in the form of quantity postponement can be either strategic substitutes or strategic complements and this depends on both the firm s cost structure and the degree of substitution between the products we also study the impact of forced clearance on the firm s expected profit and find that clearance deteriorates the firm s earnings more when the products it offers are highly differentiated

optimal investment in product flexible manufacturing capacity this paper presents a model and an analysis of the cost flexibility tradeoffs involved in investing in product flexible manufacturing capacity flexible capacity provides a firm with the ability to respond to a wide variety of future demand outcomes but at the expense of the increased cost of acquiring flexible manufacturing capacity as compared with dedicated or nonflexible capacity we formulate the product flexible manufacturing capacity investment decision as a two stage stochastic program in the first stage the firm must make its investment decision in manufacturing capacity before the resolution of uncertainty in product demand in the second stage after demand for products are known the firm implements its production decisions constrained by the first stage investments the main contributions of this paper are threefold first we develop a model of the firm s flexible manufacturing investment decision that conceptually captures some of the key characteristics of this complex decision probl

do gasoline prices respond asymmetrically in the euro zone area evidence from cointegrated panel data analysis this paper uses the generalized method of moments gmm estimation to a panel data error correction model ecm in order to measure the asymmetries in the transmission of shocks to input prices and exchange rate onto the wholesale and retail gasoline price respectively for this purpose we use an updated data set of 6369 weekly observations january 2000 to february 2011 for 11 euro zone countries the results indicate the existence of asymmetric responses in the retail and wholesale segment due to possible reasons oligopolistic structure of the refining industry existence of consumers search costs regulatory and legal barriers

a brownian approximation of a production inventory system with a manufacturer that subcontracts this paper considers a production inventory problem where a manufacturer fulfills stochastic stationary demand for a single product from a finished goods inventory the inventory can be replenished by two production resources in house production and a subcontractor which both have finite capacity we construct a brownian approximation of the optimal control problem assuming that the manufacturer uses a dual base stock policy to control replenishment from the two sources and that her objective is to minimize average cost a closed form expression is obtained for one optimal base stock policy and an analytical expression is derived from which the other optimal base stock can be computed numerically we show conditions under which the objective is convex in capacity and the unique globally optimal capacity can be computed numerically we thus provide a tractable approximation to the two source problem which is generally intractable we demonstrate the accuracy of this approximation for an m m 1 model we also draw managerial insight from the brownian optimal base stock results into how the optimal base stock policies control the inventory distribution and under what conditions the contingent source is used to build inventory or to resolve backorders

economics of efficiency measurement by the dea approach three aspects of efficiency measurement by data envelopment analysis are discussed here analytically these aspects comprise output specific input allocations by each firm flexibility in the production process and the role of learning by doing in efficiency improvement

flexible production resources and capacity utilization rates a robust optimization perspective abstract this paper presents a novel application of robust optimization ro in the context of optimal choices of product dedicated and flexible capacities in a spatial setting specifically we examine the impact of acquiring flexible production technologies on a firm s overall capacity utilization rates under demand uncertainty uncorrelated negatively and positively correlated demands are considered we implement an efficient ro algorithm which can solve large samples of robust min max problems in a realistic amount of time this paper examines the impact of three critical factors that lead to different capacity utilization and resource flexibility outcomes the degree of solution robustness selected by the decision maker to accommodate uncertain demand realizations the flexible capacity costs relative to dedicated capacity costs and the level of correlation between product demands one of our results show that according to robust solutions the total capacity may not be fully utilized because of the distinction between largest in unit terms and costliest demand realizations the second result shows that increasing the proportion of flexible capacity can increase capacity utilization however our results report less than full utilization even when using flexible capacity only we show that the optimal amount of flexible capacity and its impact on overall capacity utilization rate substantially depends on demand correlation

investments in flexible production capacity abstract we examine the technology and capacity choice problem of a multi output firm facing stochastic demands in a continuous time framework the firm can install output specific capital or at greater cost flexible capital that can be used to produce different outputs investment is irreversible the firm must choose a technology and decide how much capital to install knowing it can add more later as demand evolves we formulate the capacity choice problem as a singular stochastic control problem show that the value of the firm equals the value of its installed capital plus the value of its options to add capacity in the future and derive an optimal investment rule that maximizes the firm s market value we also address the analogous problem for a multi input firm that faces stochastically evolving factor costs and can install input specific or flexible capital

are internal capital markets efficient using segment information from compustat we find that the investment by a segment of a diversified firm depends on the cash flow of the firm s other segments but significantly less than it depends on its own cash flow the investment by segments of highly diversified firms is less sensitive to their cash flow than the investment of comparable single segment firms the sensitivity of a segment s investment to the cash flow of other segments does not depend on whether its investment opportunities are better than those of the firm s other segments

do petrol prices increase faster than they fall in market disequilibria abstract this paper tests the idea that petrol prices respond more quickly to price increases than to decreases we show that the results previously documented in the literature for australia are spurious due to failure to establish the stationarity property of the price series and the co integration relationship between retail and wholesale prices when neglecting to account for a regime shift in the data using a robust approach involving a threshold error correction model we find little evidence to support the contention that retail petrol price reverts asymmetrically to long run equilibrium asymmetric adjustments in retail prices are found only in four of the twenty eight retail gas stations in queensland these results cast doubt on the previously reported pervasiveness of this asymmetric price response phenomenon in australia we further caution on erroneous inference with the use of weekly rather than daily data and when failing to account for a regime shift in the data

security price reactions around corporate spin off announcements abstract we examine security price reactions around the announcements of 123 voluntary spin offs by 116 firms between 1963 and 1981 involving a pro rata distribution of the common stock of a subsidiary to the stockholders of the parent firm the median spin off in the sample is 6 6 of the original equity value and is associated with an abnormal return of 7 0 from 50 days prior to the announcement through completion of the spin off no evidence is found to indicate the gains to stockholders represent wealth transfers from senior securityholders over the entire event period we find positive gains for firms engaging in spin offs to facilitate mergers or to separate diverse operating units but negative returns to firms responding to legal and or regulatory difficulties in the two day interval surrounding the first press announcement we find positive average excess returns for all groups

excess capacity in a fixed cost economy abstract this paper proposes a new mechanism that can explain persistent economic slack the theory shows that when producers face negligible marginal costs and desired spending is below the economy s capacity the economy features slack in equilibrium even when prices are flexible and there are no other frictions a heterogeneous household version of the model demonstrates how an economy can enter a capacity trap in response to a temporary negative demand shock when demand by some consumers falls temporarily other consumers permanent income and hence their desired consumption also falls since output is determined by demand the permanent fall in desired consumption causes a permanent state of excess capacity

flexible service capacity optimal investment and the impact of demand correlation we consider a firm that provides multiple services using both specialized and flexible capacity the problem is formulated as a two stage single period stochastic program the firm invests in capacity before the actual demand is known and optimally assigns capacity to customers when demand is realized sample applications include a car rental company s use of mid sized cars to satisfy unexpectedly high demand for compact cars and an airline s use of business class seats to satisfy economy class demand we obtain an analytical solution for a particular case when services may be upgraded by one class the simple form of the solution allows us to compare the optimal capacities explicitly with a solution that does not anticipate flexibility given that demand follows a multivariate normal distribution we analytically characterize the effects of increasing demand correlation on the optimal solution for the case with two customer classes the effects of demand correlation are intuitive increasing correlation induces a shift from flexible to dedicated capacity when there are three or more classes there are also adjustments to the resources not directly affected by the correlation change as correlation rises these changes follow an alternating pattern for example if the optimal capacity of one resource rises then the optimal capacity of the adjacent resource falls these results make precise conjectures based on numerical experiments that have existed in the literature for some time

the value of flexibility in make to order systems the effect of demand correlation we consider a manufacturer of mass customized modular products who orders components under demand uncertainty and sets prices produces to order and trades excess components in a secondary market after this uncertainty is resolved the sequence of events reflects in a parsimonious fashion the considerable reduction in demand uncertainty between the procurement stage and the selling season typical of industries with long supply lead times and short product life cycles we prove that in contrast to conventional wisdom the value of production flexibility and expected profit increase with demand correlation if and only if commonality between the corresponding products does not exceed a threshold we also prove that the value of flexibility and expected profit may each increase or decrease with demand variability depending on demand correlations and component commonalities across the entire product line finally we prove that when demand shocks are independent the optimal product prices are positively correlated if and only if the degree of commonality between the corresponding products exceeds a threshold

component commonality with service level requirements this paper extends recent results of baker et al baker k r m j magazine h l w nuttle 1986 the effect of commonality on safety stocks in a simple inventory model management sci 32 982 988 in understanding the impact of component commonality on stocking levels under service level constraints a model is formulated for an arbitrary number of products with general joint demand distribution the results obtained are not all intuitive while utilizing commonality is beneficial nothing general can be said about the resulting change in the components stock levels when the cost structure is of a particular simple form though some interesting general patterns do emerge we also discuss the case of using a service level measure where rationing of common components might be required and characterize the implied rationing rule

time to build option value and investment decisions abstract investment decisions and outlays are often made sequentially for example the rate at which construction proceeds is usually flexible and can be adjusted with the arrival of new information traditional discounted cash flow methods which treat the pattern of investment as fixed ignore this flexibility and understate the value of the project this paper uses contingent claims analysis to derive optimal decision rules and to value such investments we determine the effects of time to build opportunity cost and uncertainty on the investment decision for reasonable parameter values we show how a simple npv rule can lead to gross errors

machine and labor flexibility in manufacturing networks abstract many industrial companies today operate under strict employment legislation and work agreements since flexible capacity has been widely recognized as an important hedge against uncertain demand there exist strong efforts to introduce more flexible workforce models in this paper we investigate the benefits of such labor flexibility and its interplay with machine flexibility from a network capacity investment perspective we consider a firm that has to invest simultaneously in labor and machine capacity under uncertain demand and a given network configuration while anticipating the deployment of labor flexibility after demand has been realized instruments of labor flexibility range from temporary employment to personnel transfers between plants the underlying decision problem is formulated as a two stage stochastic program with recourse based on numerical studies and the analysis of a stylized model we demonstrate the impact of labor flexibility on the optimal levels of machine and labor capacity we compare the benefits obtained by personnel transfers with those of temporary workers and find that temporary employment always decreases the number of permanent workers while personnel transfers may even allow for a larger workforce our results further indicate that personnel transfers are more effective in larger manufacturing networks although these benefits are decreasing when most plants in the network are capable of producing more than one product machine flexibility finally we present evidence for the efficiency of a combined usage of personnel transfers and temporary workers

operational flexibility and financial hedging complements or substitutes we consider a firm that invests in capacity under demand uncertainty and thus faces two related but distinct types of risk mismatch between capacity and demand and profit variability whereas mismatch risk can be mitigated with greater operational flexibility profit variability can be reduced through financial hedging we show that the relationship between these two risk mitigating strategies depends on the type of flexibility product flexibility and financial hedging tend to be complements substitutes i e product flexibility tends to increase decrease the value of financial hedging and vice versa financial hedging tends to increase decrease the value of product flexibility when product demands are positively negatively correlated in contrast to product flexibility postponement flexibility is a substitute to financial hedging as intuitively expected although our analytical results assume perfect flexibility and perfect hedging and rely on a linear approximation of the value of hedging we validate their robustness in an extensive numerical study

pricing and operational recourse in coproduction systems coproduction systems in which multiple products are produced simultaneously in a single production run are prevalent in many industries such systems typically produce a random quantity of vertically differentiated products this product hierarchy enables the firm to fill demand for a lower quality product by converting a higher quality product in addition to the challenges presented by random yields and multiple products coproduction systems often serve multiple customer classes that differ in their product valuations furthermore the sizes of these classes are uncertain employing a utility maximizing customer model we investigate the production pricing downconversion and allocation decisions in a two class stochastic demand stochastic yield coproduction system for the single class case we establish that downconversion will not occur if prices are set optimally in contrast we show that downconversion can be optimal in the two class case even if prices are set optimally we consider the benefit of postponing certain operational decisions e g the pricing or allocation rule decisions until after uncertainties are resolved we use the term recourse to denote actions taken after uncertainties have been resolved we find that recourse pricing benefits the firm much more than either downconversion or recourse allocation do implying that recourse demand management is more valuable than recourse supply management special cases of our model include the single class and two class random yield newsvendor models

process flexibility in supply chains process flexibility whereby a production facility can produce multiple products is a critical design consideration in multiproduct supply chains facing uncertain demand the challenge is to determine a cost effective flexibility configuration that is able to meet the demand with high likelihood in this paper we present a framework for analyzing the benefits from flexibility in multistage supply chains we find two phenomena stage spanning bottlenecks and floating bottlenecks neither of which are present in single stage supply chains which reduce the effectiveness of a flexibility configuration we develop a flexibility measureg and show that increasing this measure results in greater protection from these supply chain inefficiencies we also identify flexibility guidelines that perform very well for multistage supply chains these guidelines employ and adapt the single stage chaining strategy of jordan and graves 1995 to multistage supply chains

flexible capacity strategy with multiple market periods under demand uncertainty and investment constraint abstract we establish a flexible capacity strategy model with multiple market periods under demand uncertainty and investment constraints in the model a firm makes its capacity decision under a financial budget constraint at the beginning of the planning horizon which embraces n market periods in each market period the firm goes through three decision making stages the safety production stage the additional production stage and the optimal sales stage we formulate the problem and obtain the optimal capacity the optimal safety production the optimal additional production and the optimal sales of each market period under different situations we find that there are two thresholds for the unit capacity cost when the capacity cost is very low the optimal capacity is determined by its financial budget when the capacity cost is very high the firm keeps its optimal capacity at its safety production level and when the cost is in between of the two thresholds the optimal capacity is determined by the capacity cost the number of market periods and the unit cost of additional production further we explore the endogenous safety production level we verify the conditions under which the firm has different optimal safety production levels finally we prove that the firm can benefit from the investment only when the designed planning horizon is longer than a threshold moreover we also derive the formulae for the above three thresholds