state dependence and heterogeneity in fishing location choice to explore the distinction between state dependence and heterogeneity in repeated decisions this paper combines a mixed logit model with a state dependence parameterization from the marketing literature to study fishing location choices of commercial sea urchin divers in california it examines implications of ignoring either effect and finds in all cases that true state dependence is an important determinant of location choice consequently spatial policies like marine reserves can lead to differences in the short and long run behavioral responses of the fishing fleet under some specifications random preference parameters are statistically significant when state dependence is excluded from the model but when it is included random preference parameters are not significant in other specifications including state dependence only dampens the variability in preference parameters these results highlight the importance of gathering and analyzing diary type data for commercial fisheries as well as for similar choice problems in recreation demand

robust tests for unit roots in the foreign exchange market abstract empirical studies that have tested for unit roots in foreign exchange rate data have assumed independent and identically distributed errors in order to apply dickey fuller test procedures this assumption ignores the temporal dependence of the error sequence present in many simple efficient market tests as discussed in hansen and hodrick 1980 as well as krasker 1980 in this paper we apply unit root test statistics that allow for heterogeneously distributed and mildly dependent error processes and thus provide superior tests of the unit root hypothesis in the case of foreign exchange rates

temporary foreign workers and firms theory and canadian evidence abstract temporary foreign worker tfw programs have grown considerably in size when uncapped we develop a simple efficiency wage model to explain this phenomenon and examine the empirical evidence for it we also use the model to evaluate the implications of tfw programs for domestic workers in our framework firms that have been unable to find domestic workers may hire tfws at the wage previously advertised to domestic workers due to the lower outside option for tfws than domestic workers tfws will exert more effort for the same wage firms would thus prefer to hire otherwise identical tfws rather than domestic workers our model identifies an unintended consequence of a tfw program since the repercussions of a failed domestic job search are less severe if a tfw may be hired instead firms have an incentive to lower their wage offers made to domestic workers using canadian data we find that relative to domestic workers tfws work longer hours have lower rates of absenteeism and are less likely to be laid off consistent with higher effort in our model moreover for tfws from home countries with a relatively high outside option effort is lower than for tfws from other countries resume travailleurs etrangers temporaires et entreprises theorie et exemple canadien en l absence de plafonnement les programmes de travailleurs etrangers temporaires ptet se sont considerablement developpes afin d expliquer ce phenomene et d en examiner les preuves empiriques nous avons developpe un modele simple de salaire d efficience nous avons egalement utilise ce modele pour evaluer l incidence des ptet sur les travailleurs domestiques dans notre cadre d etude les entreprises peinant a trouver une main d uvre locale peuvent embaucher des travailleurs etrangers temporaires au salaire prealablement propose aux travailleurs domestiques compte tenu d options exterieures plus faibles les travailleurs etrangers temporaires deploieront davantage d efforts pour le meme salaire les entreprises prefereront donc embaucher des travailleurs etrangers par ailleurs identiques plutot que des travailleurs domestiques notre modele identifie une consequence inattendue aux ptet etant donne que les consequences d une recherche d employes domestiques infructueuse sont attenuees par l embauche de travailleurs etrangers temporaires les entreprises sont incitees a diminuer les offres salariales proposees aux travailleurs locaux en exploitant les donnees propres au canada nous avons decouvert que les travailleurs etrangers temporaires travaillaient plus d heures avaient des taux d absenteisme inferieurs et etaient moins susceptibles de se faire congedier que les travailleurs domestiques conformement au concept d effort accru developpe dans notre modele en outre pour les travailleurs etrangers temporaires originaires de pays a options exterieures relativement elevees l effort sera moindre que pour ceux provenant d autres pays

purchasing power parity yet again evidence from spatially separated commodity markets abstract this paper examines the empirical validity of the law of one price by exploiting the non stationarity of prices set in us dollars of varieties of wheat that are traded simultaneously in the usa rotterdam and japan we demonstrate the crucial role of transport costs in achieving cointegration long run ppp although systematic short run deviations from ppp occur we show that this does not imply profitable arbitrage opportunities jel c5 f3 g1

fair wages in the open economy we show how an extended theory of fair wages can be incorporated in the two by two heckscher ohlin model an important feature of the model is the existence of involuntary unemployment several results stand out first there is no longer a simple relatio

migration unemployment and discrimination abstract this paper uses a dynamic efficiency wage model to analyze the consequences of immigration for a small country when there is discrimination against immigrants in a dual labor market with unemployment discrimination is of the type equal pay for equal work but unequal work which is characteristic of economies with guest worker systems the model exhibits three regimes for rising immigration levels immigration is most beneficial for natives in the intermediate regime an analysis of regime switches shows that changes attributable to globalization and technical progress are consistent with growing opposition to immigration

unemployed immigrants and voter sentiment in the welfare state abstract adverse voter sentiment can arise when immigrants are unemployed and receive tax financed income transfers the explanation for unemployment however determines the consequences for the local population and an efficiency wage explanation for unemployment is consistent with mutual benefit to national workers and employers from the presence of unemployed immigrants receiving tax financed income transfers the mutual benefit requires credible labor market disciplining through job offers to immigrants and willingness of immigrants to accept job offers acceptance of job offers results in displacement in employment of national workers by immigrants which can compromise the effectiveness of efficiency wages as a counter to anti immigrant voter sentiment in the welfare state

a structural equations approach to modeling consumptive recreation demand abstract in this analysis we develop a two equation structural model of a count travel cost model of recreational angling demand and angling success by modeling the two equations jointly we avoid the difficulties associated with the usual approach which estimates the demand for recreational fishing sites assuming the existence of an exogenous measure of fishing quality our analysis explicitly develops the joint log likelihood function that combines the two processes we estimate our model using full information maximum likelihood methods

measurement error in recreation demand models the joint estimation of participation site choice and site characteristics abstract in the demand for recreational fishing sites an important explanatory variable differentiating sites is the unobserved expected catch rate since the observed catch rate is subject to sampling variability using the average of a site s observed catch rates causes the parameter estimator on catch to be biased downward we develop and demonstrate a solution to this errors in variables problem when there are repeated measurements on the catch rate consistent and efficient estimates of both the demand parameters and the expected catch rates are obtained by simultaneously estimating them by maximum likelihood an empirical example demonstrates the importance of simultaneous estimation

location choice in new england trawl fisheries old habits die hard in his seminal work on common property resources h scott gordon proposed that in a fishery with multiple grounds effort would be distributed such that profit rates would be equal among them gordon s model relies on implicit assumptions that are inaccurate and lead to false conclusions in many cases in this paper we present an empirically estimated model of fishery and location choice for large trawlers in new england using a random utility framework with a nested logit model specification we use the model to test the validity of a behavioral model developed from ethnographic interviews with skippers

undocumented immigration and unemployment of u s youth and minority workers econometric evidence we use census based data on the state distribution of the undocumented alien population in analyzing the relationship between that population and unemployment among youth and minority workers in the united states regression results from our two equation models do not support commonly expressed fears that undocumented immigration has caused any substantial increases in joblessness among these presumably vulnerable groups although small amounts of displacement are indicated a sizeable reverse effect is evident undocumented immigrants tend to concentrate in states where labor markets for these marginal groups are most favorable excerpt

a micro econometric analysis of risk aversion and the decision to self insure this study estimates a von neumann morgenstern utility function using market data and micro econometric methods we investigate the decision whether to purchase insurance against the risk of telephone line trouble in the home using the choices of approximately 10 000 residential customers we determine the shape of the utility function and the degree of risk aversion we find that risk aversion varies systematically in the population and varies with the level of income and that the observed choice behavior is consistent with expected utility maximization we are unable to detect the presence of ambiguity effects or over weighting of low probability events

embracing model uncertainty strategies for response pooling and model averaging econometricians modeling stated preference sp data and most other types of data are confronted with the uncomfortable reality that our knowledge of the true model is limited with only certain variables suggested by the application at hand and general classes of functional forms and error structures suggested by the literature accepting our limited knowledge we pursue strategies for analyzing sp data that are more robust to uncertainties in our knowledge of the true model these include non parametric and parametric likelihood based tests of pooling responses from different elicitation formats and a frequentist based model averaging approach for estimating willingness to pay functions we argue that these strategies lead to increased econometric integrity and empower the ultimate users of models such as policy decision makers and even juries to better assess the robustness of the results we apply these approaches to an sp survey of saltwater angling in alaska which utilized split sample rankings and ratings elicitation methods while an important goal of our paper is to develop practicable modeling strategies that will ultimately lead to more robust conclusions and more confidence by the users of sp results an equally important goal is to engender a critical discussion of how we can make the analysis of sp data more robust

a generalized harvest function for fishing allocating effort among common property cod stocks a generalized harvest function abstract simple harvest functions such as the schaefer or the biomass and effort cobb douglas function have been the foundation of most dynamic fishery models the intent of this article is to question these simple harvest functions by theoretically specifying and estimating a general harvest technology the harvest from a particular stock is assumed to be a function of 1 the amount of fishing effort applied 2 the stock s biomass 3 the size of the recruit class and 4 an index of other characteristics of the stock data are available for a number of common property cod stocks in the north atlantic the harvesting technology is estimated by developing a general stochastic variable cost function to explain how a country allocates its fishing effort among these common property stocks both the schaefer harvest function and the biomass and effort cobb douglas function are rejected on empirical grounds

spot and futures prices and the law of one price the law of one price lop is tested for narrowly defined commodities traded in futures markets in different countries during the period 1973 80 although the lop holds as an average tendency for most of the commodities there are instances of large riskless arbitrage returns before transactions costs deviations from the lop tend to be commodity specific rather than due to a common external factor and they tend to be smaller the longer the maturity of the futures contract in this paper we examine how well the law of one price lop holds for commodities traded internationally the answer to this question is important for two reasons the first is that in most modern theories of exchange rates price arbitrage for at least some goods is a necessary condition to determine the level of exchange rates but recent empirical research on the behavior of various price indices casts doubt on the empirical validity of the lop across countries for even the most disaggregated indices if it is not possible to identify any commodities for which the lop works satisfactorily then models incorporating the lop will not provide an adequate description of exchange rates the second reason for studying individual commodities is to gain information on the efficiency and the degree of integration of international commodity markets in efficient markets international commodity arbitrage implies that for a standard commodity prices in two markets expressed in a common currency will not differ but for transport costs

dissecting the tragedy a spatial model of behavior in the commons abstract much of the discussion of the tragedy of the commons focuses on aggregate impacts often in data poor developing country settings few non experimental empirical studies shed light on contextual circumstances driving the extent of rent dissipation and overexploitation we utilize a high resolution data set to estimate a behavioral model of fishermen s spatial choices a unique policy setting allows us to measure the degree to which individual fishermen s choices appear aimed at mitigating the tragedy of the commons in a small numbers setting we find evidence of partial mitigation in excess of what we would expect under pure self interest but short of what would occur under group maximizing behavior we also examine how contextual factors in the fishery shape the degree of cooperation within the fishing season and find evidence that competition for the common pool resource distorts fishermen s implicit cost of distance creating a form of common property inertia

hidden flexibility institutions incentives and the margins of selectivity in fishing the degree to which selectivity in fisheries is malleable to changes in incentive structures is critical for policy design we examine data for a multispecies trawl fishery before and after a transition from management under common pool quotas to a fishery cooperative and note a substantial shift in postcooperative catch from bycatch and toward valuable target species we examine the margins used to affect catch composition finding that large and fine scale spatial decision making and avoidance of night fishing were critical we argue that the poor incentives for selectivity in many systems may obscure significant flexibility in multispecies production technologies

economic impacts of marine reserves the importance of spatial behavior abstract marine biologists have shown virtually unqualified support for managing fisheries with marine reserves signifying a new resource management paradigm that recognizes the importance of spatial processes in exploited systems most modeling of reserves employs simplifying assumptions about the behavior of fishermen in response to spatial closures we show that a realistic depiction of fishermen behavior dramatically alters the conclusions about reserves we develop estimate and calibrate an integrated bioeconomic model of the sea urchin fishery in northern california and use it to simulate reserve policies our behavioral model shows how economic incentives determine both participation and location choices of fishermen we compare simulations with behavioral response to biological modeling that presumes that effort is spatially uniform and unresponsive to economic incentives we demonstrate that optimistic conclusions about reserves may be an artifact of simplifying assumptions that ignore economic behavior

an empirical analysis of ex ante profits from forward speculation in foreign exchange markets this paper constructs a time series band for ex ante profits from forward speculation and examines the permanent component of the median of the band for six different exchange markets the unpredictability of ex ante profits is rejected using nonparametric tests deviations of ex ante profits from forward premia are attributed to deviations of nominal exchange rates from martingale processes it is shown that movements in the terms of trade are responsible for most of the variability and serial correlation properties of ex ante profits t is by now widely recognized that the forward rate is not an unbiased predictor of future spot rates and that realized nominal profits from spec ulating in the forward market are nonnegligible and highly volatile see e g hodrick 1987 frankel and meese 1987 however the nature of these profits is as of yet undetermined this paper attempts to shed light on this issue by examining the time series properties of ex ante profits from forward speculations in six foreign exchange markets i focus on three aspects of the problem first i provide a measure of the range and the variability of ex ante profits two issues with contradictory evidence in the literature see hodrick 1987 and frankel 1988 for refer ences second i relate deviations from uncov ered interest parity to risk and to deviations of nominal spot rates from martingale processes third i link the time series properties of ex ante profits to the behavior of the real exchange rate since ex ante profits are not observable the empirical analysis requires the construction of a time series for the expected future spot rate frankel and froot 1987 ito 1988 cumby 1988 and diebold and nason 1990 have all suggested ways of computing this series here i provide an alternative method for constructing a time series for expected future spot rates and for statistically assessing the properties of ex ante profits expected future spot rates are measured as a 90 confidence band obtained from the simulated recursive distribution for the linear predictor of the series i simulate the distribution of the linear predictor rather than use simple point forecasts in order to reduce the forecast error due to parameter uncertainty an addi tional measure for expected future spot rates considered is a point estimate of the permanent component of the median of the band i use nonparametric tests to examine the rela tionship between ex ante profits and other series nonparametric tests are employed here for two reasons first i am interested in the entire popu lation properties of the data existing results are derived by examining only the first and second moments of the data second efficiency tests are generally based on linear parametric functional forms pagan and ullah 1988 have pointed out problems with these tests when the conditional mean of the data is nonlinear nonparametric tests overcome these problems the results indicate that nominal and real rates do not follow martingale processes that a risk premium rarely explains the behavior of the ex ante profits and that variations in expected terms of trade account for the time series proper ties of ex ante profits

illegal immigration in an efficiency wage model abstract this paper studies illegal immigration using an efficiency wage dual labor market model the illegal immigrants are endogenously sorted completely or incompletely into secondary labor markets the effects of immigration on native workers are more complex than in standard models of factor mobility as illegals first enter the country natives may gain because the number of primary sector jobs rises with enough illegals in the country natives are hurt because the migrants increasingly take those primary sector jobs enforcing immigration laws by deporting migrants who work in primary sector jobs is pareto superior to other forms of enforcement

measuring and analysing the effects of short term volatility in real exchange rates this paper examines short term volatility in the real effective exchange rates of industrial countries and its impact on their imports it yields three conclusions first volatility has not diminished as markets have gained experience with floating exchange rates the trend appears to be in the opposite direction for some countries second exposure to short term volatility has differed among countries japan and sweden have experienced much more than most other industrial countries third volatility appears to depress the volume of international trade this third finding is consistent with results reported by cushman and by akhtar and hilton and challenges earlier findings by hooper and kohlhagen

dynamic random utility modeling a monte carlo analysis applied studies of commercial fishing have largely ignored the intertemporal aspects of repeated site choices for many fisheries fishermen might choose a dynamically optimal cruise trajectory rather than myopic day to day strategies and a model that ignores these considerations will likely lead to biased parameter estimates and poor policy guidance a dynamic random utility model is developed that utilizes the same information as static site choice models but is entrenched in the principles of dynamic optimization using monte carlo analysis we evaluate the performance of this estimator as compared to the static model for a variety of simulated fishery types

discussion of morey and waldman s measurement error in recreation demand models abstract morey and waldman have proposed a method for handling measurement error in site attributes such as catch rates in models of anglers choice of fishing sites we discuss the properties of this method and compare these properties with those of the standard estimation procedure we show that i both methods are biased and ii the standard procedure is consistent whenever morey and waldman s procedure is consistent as well as under more general conditions in particular morey and waldman s procedure is inconsistent if any site attributes are omitted from the model whereas the standard procedure is consistent in the presence of omitted site attributes as long as the impact of these attributes on the dependent variable is uncorrelated with included variables a condition shared by all regression models

a theory of dual labor markets with application to industrial policy discrimination and keynesian unemployment this paper develops a model of dual labor markets based on employers need to motivate workers in order to elicit effort from their workers employers may find it optimal to pay more than the going wage this changes fundamentally the character of labor markets the model is applied to a wide range of labor market phenomena it provides a coherent framework for understanding the claims of industrial policy advocates it also can provide the basis for a theory of occupational segregation and discrimination that will not be eroded by market forces finally the model provides the basis for a theory of involuntary unemployment

searching for the effect of immigration on the labor market we compare two approaches to analyzing the effects of immigration on the labor market and find that the estimated effect of immigration on u s native labor outcomes depends critically on the empirical experiment used area analyses contrast the level or change in immigration by area with the level or change in the outcomes of non immigrant workers factor proportions analyses treat immigrants as a source of increased national supply of workers of the relevant skill the different effects of immigration on native outcomes in the area and factor proportions methodologies appear to result from the diluting effect of native migration flows across regions and failure to take adequate account of other regional labor market conditions in area comparisons excerpt

arima and cointegration tests of ppp under fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes real exchange rates between the united states and its major trading partners were calculated for the bretton woods and flexible exchange rate periods unit root tests indicate that purchasing power parity performed poorly in both periods tests for cointegration reveal limited instances in which it is possible to estimate the deviations from ppp as an error correcting model the estimated error correcting models indicate that foreign but not u s prices responded to deviations from ppp frenkel s 1981b finding that purchasing power parity ppp worked better during the 1920s than the 1970s caused considerable controversy for example davutyan and pippenger 1985 contend that the socalled collapse of ppp is a result of an increase in the relative importance of real versus monetary shocks they argue that the 1970s as opposed to the 1920s was characterized by real supply shocks and the international coordination of monetary policies the argument is that ppp did not fail rather there was an increase in the volatility of those factors giving rise to deviations from ppp hakkio 1984 reestimated ppp over the 1920s and 1970s using cross country tests i e sure estimates to improve the efficiency of his estimates he was able to support the hypothesis that ppp worked better in the 1970s than in the 1920s on the other hand papers by adler and lehman 1983 dornbusch 1980 frenkel 1981a junge 1985 and krugman 1978 report findings contrary to the ppp hypothesis moreover kenen and rodrik 1986 find that the volatility of real exchange rates has increased throughout the flexible rate period this paper tries to shed some light on the importance and persistence of the observed deviations from purchasing power parity under alternative exchange rate systems while it is interesting to compare ppp in the 1920s versus the 1970s it is equally useful to compare the 1960s versus the 1970s and 1980s if real supply shocks and lack of monetary coordination are characteristic of the latter period ppp should perform better in the 1960s to illustrate the issues involved consider the following econometric model of relative purchasing power

joint estimation of catch and other travel cost parameters some further thoughts abstract e r morey and d m waldman propose and use an estimator that jointly estimates catch rates and the parameter on those catch rates it is designed for situations where there is limited catch data for some of the sites in the choice set and takes advantage of the fact that trip patterns reflect variations in catch rates anglers do not like to fish at sites with few fish k train d mcfadden and r johnson note that this estimator is particularly sensitive to omitted variable bias and suggest an alternative estimator but their estimator effectively eliminates poor sites from the choice set

international trade and labor migration a theory of the relationship between international trade and labor mobility is developed that takes into account five characteristics of such migration including its temporary nature differences between migrant and native labor the acceptance of unpredictable conditions of employment by migrant labor the ready availability of further labor resources and international capital mobility particular attention is paid to the role of international labor migration in helping to insulate native populations from the rigors of industrial fluctuations and in helping to preserve import competing industries that would have succumbed without the availability of cheap imported labor

the theory of international factor flows the basic model abstract the basic model used to discuss the simultaneous international flow of labor and capital is a one commodity model in which a common technology is shared between countries the ramaswami result wherein an optimal restriction of labor inflows is superior to an optimal restriction on capital outflows for a capital abundant country is extended to reveal that optimality requires inflows of both factors box diagrams and iso welfare contours are used to show how optimal policy rankings are reversed if foreign labor must be paid higher home wages

efficiency wages in a ricardian model of international trade abstract this paper examines the implications of efficiency wages for international trade in a simple extension of the ricardian model in which labour performs two different tasks in production and where workers are imperfectly monitored in the performance of one of the tasks as a result of the factor market distortion the one factor economy may behave like a heckscher ohlin model an important result is that transfers of income have efficiency reducing effects and hence the standard aggregate analysis of trade policy may be inappropriate

simple adaptive rules describe fishing behaviour better than perfect rationality in the us west coast groundfish fishery abstract most bio economic models in fisheries assume perfectly rational profit maximizing behaviour by fishing vessels here we investigate this assumption empirically using a flexible agent based model of fishing vessels called poseidon we compared predicted fishing patterns to observed patterns in logbook data that resulted from a wide range of stylized decision making processes in the u s west coast dover sole thornyhead sablefish dts fishery which is managed with tradable quotas itqs we found that observed vessel behaviour was best predicted in the model by simple decision algorithms whereby vessels chose between exploring new fishing grounds and revisiting previous ones based on their and other vessels past successes in contrast when the model assumed that vessels were perfect profit maximizers the model substantially overestimated their profits and utilization of quota of rare constraining species that carry high quota costs such as yelloweye rockfish our results suggest that bounded rationality is an important driver of vessel behaviour in this fishery

efficiency wage models of unemployment keynesian economists hold it to be self evident that business cycles are characterized by involuntary unemployment but construction of a model of the cycle with involuntary unemployment faces the obvious difficulty of explaining why the labor market does not clear involuntarily unemployed people by definition want to work at less than the going wage rate why don t firms cut wages thereby increasing profits

efficiency wages employment versus welfare this paper analyzes the effects of government policies in an efficiency wage model in such a model wages exceed market clearing rates firms may pay high wages for many reasons levine gives thirteen motivations for efficiency wages 12 in the model used here high wages prevent shirking by workers the model is similar to those of shapiro and stiglitz sparks fairris and alston and others 15 17 7 efficiency wage models are often viewed as providing the microeconomic foundations of involuntary unemployment and keynesian economics 1 2 unemployment is also emphasized in many discussions of government policies 3 4 11 a major example is that of johnson and layard 9 they find that a per capita employment subsidy financed by an ad valorem wage rate tax would reduce unemployment they conclude that this policy would benefit a country because of the employment effect 2 yet this paper shows that the employment effect is misleading here a policy that causes employment to rise fall also must cause income net of effort to fall rise so total welfare falls rises the policy implications discussed by johnson and layard and others are therefore reversed

cointegration and tests of purchasing power parity nonstationarity in the levels of spot exchange rates and domestic and foreign price indices makes the use of conventional tests of the absolute version of purchasing power parity ppp inappropriate if ppp is true inter country commodity arbitrage ensures that deviations from a linear combination of spot exchange rates and domestic and foreign price levels should be stationary under these conditions exchange rates and price levels should form a cointegrated system we find the null hypothesis of no cointegration cannot be rejected for all five countries thus violating the long run absolute version of ppp

economic and conservation implications of a variable effort penalty system in effort controlled fisheries bycatch of threatened endangered or protected species by commercial fishers is a universal problem technical solutions are often applied that may impose inefficiencies across the fleet even in periods or areas when the risk of bycatch is low these may include gear specifically designed to avoid the bycatch which may also reduce the targeted catch or designation of marine protected areas that exclude fishing from whole areas in this article we examine the effectiveness of a variable penalty system that can provide incentives for fishers to redirect their effort away from problem areas the system is examined using a case study of fishery which is currently subjected to gear and closure controls to limit bycatch of turtles and seabirds an alternative incentive based management policy using a series of differential hook penalties has been proposed as a flexible tool to discourage vessels operating in certain areas the effects of various hook penalties and closures in key areas on fishing effort in those areas and elsewhere as well as vessel economic performance are assessed using a location choice model the results suggest that incentive based approaches may result in lower costs to industry than closures provided some level of residual bycatch is acceptable

an efficiency wage model with explicit monitoring abstract this paper develops an efficiency wage model of involuntary unemployment in a small open economy which uses two factors to produce three goods one of which is non traded monitoring aimed at reducing shirking by workers in all industries the analysis shows how a tariff on imports may lower employment but paradoxically raise social welfare at the same time as the paper also demonstrates the optimal policy combination includes not only taxes on capital and monitoring as well as a subsidy on employment but also despite the small country assumption a tax on consumption

location choice of commercial fishermen with heterogeneous risk preferences location choice of commercial fishermen with heterogeneous risk preferences author s johan a mistiaen and ivar e strand reviewed work s source american journal of agricultural economics vol 82 no 5 proceedings issue dec 2000 pp 1184 1190 published by oxford university press on behalf of the agricultural applied economics association stable url http www jstor org stable 1244248 accessed 25 01 2012 20 19

discrete modelling of supply response under uncertainty the case of the fishery abstract in the absence of complete control in a regulated industry effective management requires prediction of firms behavioral responses to public policy this paper develops a discrete choice model of supply response under uncertainty and applies it to fishery choice problems of new england fishing firms while fishermen demonstrate a bias towards remaining within the same fishery sufficient incentives in terms of changes in expected returns and risk are shown to elicit response due to extreme uncertainty concerning population dynamics of fish stocks a satisficing approach to management facilitated by this type of modelling may be more appropriate than bioeconomic optimization

estimating long run economic equilibria with stochastic trends an asymptotic theory is provided to analyze a menu of currently existing estimators of cointegrated systems we study in detail the single equation ecm seecm approach of hendry our theoretical results lead to prescriptions for empirical work such as specifying seecm s nonlinearly and including lagged equilibrium relationships rather than lagged differences of the dependent variable as covariates simulations support these prescriptions and point to problems of overfitting not encountered in the semiparametric approach of phillips and hansen 1990

an expected profit model for monetizing fishing location choices abstract we develop and analyze the properties of a new type of discrete choice model which jointly estimates the expected value of catch and location choice this model implicitly monetizes location choices and can be used to predict costs and effort redistribution of creating marine protected areas or of implementing other policy changes that either increase travel costs or alter expected revenue we illustrate our approach by considering the closing of the steller sea lion conservation area in the united states bering sea to pollock fishing

undocumented mexico u s migration and the returns to households in rural mexico this paper presents estimates of net income gains to a sample of households in rural mexico from sending migrants illegally to the united states correcting for sample selectivity bias and it examines the role of expected income gains in driving illegal mexico u s migration there is no evidence that people who migrate illegally to the united states are above average contributors to household income either as workers in mexico or as mexico u s migrants however other things being equal villagers who are in the best position to contribute to household income as workers in mexico are positively selected not to migrate to the united states

on the choice between capital and labour mobility trade theorists since the pioneering work of kemp 1966 have considered the question of national advantage from international factor mobility by considering only one factor to be so mobile kemp analyzed elegantly the question of optimal policies in 2 x 2 x 2 model and showed that since monopoly power could exist in both the goods and factor markets in consequence of international capital mobility the optimal policy intervention would generally involve two policy instruments tariffs cum subsidies on goods and duties cum subsidies on international capital flows jones 1967 subsequently extended kemp s argument to the secondbest context by examining the optimal level of one of these instruments when the other was arbitrarily set at zero elsewhere in this issue brecher 1983 shows in an elegant and original contribution that the jones policy problem is in fact a third best rather than a second best problem as generally believed and that if only one of the tariff and capital mobility taxes cumsubsidies can be used it is generally possible to improve welfare further by admitting an altogether different domestic policy instrument namely a production or consumption tax cum subsidy as the case may be the research of bhagwati was supported by the german marshall fund grant no l 34015 the problem analyzed in the paper was posed in bhagwati 1979 and an early ingenious and neglected analysis in ramaswami 1968 was noted by bhagwati we have profited greatly from these contributions also from reading webb 1970 ramaswami 1970 and a recent paper of calvo and wellisz 1983 on this problem this result is in consonance with the results of bhagwati ramaswami and srinivasan 1969 for the case without international capital mobility but the consonance is intuitive only after the result was established for the case with international capital mobility