has india s economic growth become more pro poor in the wake of economic reforms the extent to which india s poor have benefited from the country s economic growth has long been debated a new series of consumption based poverty measures spanning 50 years including a 15 year period after economic reforms began in earnest in the early 1990s is used to examine that issue growth has tended to reduce poverty including in the post reform period there is no robust evidence of more or less poverty responsiveness to growth since the reforms began although there are signs of rising inequality the impact of growth is higher when using poverty measures that reflects distribution below the poverty line and when using growth rates calculated from household surveys rather than national accounts the urban rural pattern of growth matters for the pace of poverty reduction however in marked contrast to the period before the reforms urban economic growth in the period after the reforms has brought significant gains to the rural poor as well as the urban poor

the evolution of institutions in india and its relationship with economic growth this paper examines the evolution in a few public institutions over time in india it presents three types of evidence on institutional outcomes such as losses in power generation backlogs in disposal of court cases on perceptions based measures of governance some going back to the 1960s and finally on customs administration and whether it has been more effective at detecting evasion over time all the evidence suggests that institutional quality has not improved over time it then addresses the two way relationship between growth and institutions in terms of two apparent paradoxes the first is why growth has turned around so dramatically in india despite the relatively limited nature of reforms especially compared with other countries the second paradox is why despite nearly 30 years of rapid growth institutions have not improved the paper offers some explanations that might help explain these paradoxes

strategic offering for a wind power producer as a result of subsidies and technological maturity renewable electricity producers have grown in some jurisdictions to clearly dominant positions in the market under this context we propose an offering strategy for a wind power producer with market power that participates in the day ahead market as a price maker and in the balancing market as a deviator uncertainty pertaining to wind power production and balancing market price is represented through a set of correlated scenarios the proposed model is a stochastic mathematical program with equilibrium constraints mpec that can be recast as a tractable mixed integer linear programming milp problem which is solvable using available optimization software results from an illustrative example and two case studies show the effectiveness of the proposed model

informational efficiency of markets for stumpage this paper examines the weak form informational efficiency of markets for pine sawtimber stumpage in the u s south analyses of annual and quarterly rates of price change generally indicate that stumpage markets are efficient when viewed over monthly intervals stumpage markets do not pass the tests for weak form efficiency this failure is attributed to friction in the market due to the time and cost involved in consumating timber sales the results have implications for price responsive timber harvest scheduling for the application of asset pricing models to forestry investments and for policies governing sales of timber from public lands

international search behavior of business group affiliated firms scope of institutional changes and intragroup heterogeneity this paper investigates whether and when affiliation to business groups enables or constrains firms international search behavior during institutional transitions we theorize that given the unique structure and complex form of business group organizations the search behavior of affiliated firms is influenced by the degree of misalignment in outlook at the group and affiliate levels of management we identify the scope of institutional changes business group attributes and affiliate characteristics as sources of such misalignment the results from panel data on 298 firms from the indian pharmaceutical industry for the 1992 2007 period show that the constraining effects of business group affiliation are observed only when institutional changes are specific to the affiliates industry and not when broad institutional changes affect the business group as a whole moreover we observe heterogeneity in the search behavior of group affiliated firms first the degree of misalignment is greater in the case of affiliates belonging to older business groups and those that are more distant in terms of age and industry since the group s founding second by contrast and suggesting an alignment in outlook we find that affiliated firms that occupy a prominent position within a group or industry are able to bargain for and receive attention and support from the business group to undertake international search our findings have implications for research on the role of business groups in a changing institutional context and for the strategic adaptation of firms embedded in complex organizational and institutional settings

a stochastic multi layer agent based model to study electricity market participants behavior this paper presents a new stochastic multi layer agent based model to study the behavior of electricity market participants the wholesale market players including renewable power producers are modeled in the first layer of the proposed multi agent environment the players optimize bidding offering strategies to participate in the electricity markets in the second layer responsive customers including plug in electric vehicle pev owners and consumers who participate in demand response dr programs are modeled as independent agents the objective of the responsive customers is to increase their benefit while retaining welfare the interaction between market players in day ahead and real time markets is modeled using an incomplete information game theory algorithm due to the uncertainties of resources and customers behavior the model is developed using a stochastic framework a case study containing wind power producers wpps pev aggregators and retailers providing dr is considered to demonstrate the usefulness and proficiency of the proposed multi layer agent based model

optimal adaptive price search consider the problem of a consumer desiring to buy a good which is sold at a variety of prices such a buyer will be able to obtain a sequence of price quotations from various sellers when should the buyer stop searching for a lower price if he continues he may obtain a lower price but he incurs additional time effort and expense in searching the optimal price search decision is one of balancing the expectation of a possibly lower price obtained by continued search against cumulative costs from search when the prices arise from a known probability distribution the optimal search strategy has certain well defined and desirable properties in the more realistic case that the buyer has only partial information about the price distribution and must update his beliefs after observing prices in the marketplace the problem becomes more complex and search strategies become less well behaved the major purpose of this article is to determine new conditions under which optimal policies have these desirable characteristics in the case where the consumer possesses only incomplete information about the distribution of prices price quotations he receives in addition to providing him with price possibilities provide him with information about that distribution rothschild 151 in citing an unpublished paper of gastwirth has noted that small specification errors for an assumed distribution can lead to substantial changes in expected number of searches and expected cost consequently the assumption of a known distribution of prices can have a profound effect on total cost 1 0022 053 l 8 l 040001 20 02 00 o

application of fuzzy q learning for electricity market modeling by considering renewable power penetration abstract by increasing renewable resource penetration the need for developing fast and reliable market modeling approaches in the presence of these resources has gained greater attention in this paper fuzzy q learning approach is proposed for hour ahead electricity market modeling in presence of renewable resources the proposed approach is implemented on ieee 30 bus test system the effectiveness of the proposed approach is evaluated and compared with q learning approach for both normal and stressful cases simulation results indicate that the proposed approach is able to model electricity market for a range of continuous multidimensional renewable power penetration in considerably less iterations compared with q learning approach moreover the probability of finding nash equilibrium is becoming higher by using fuzzy q learning approach while the other indices such as average social welfare average of locational marginal prices lmps and average standard of deviation of lmps do not change considerably

informal employment in developing countries opportunity or last resort there is an ongoing debate among researchers and policy makers whether informal sector employment is a result of competitive market forces or labor market segmentation more recently it has been argued that none of the two theories sufficiently explains informal employment but that the informal sector shows a heterogenous structure for some workers the informal sector is an attractive employment opportunity whereas for others rationed out of the formal sector the informal sector is a strategy of last resort to test the empirical relevance of this hypothesis we formulate an econometric model which allows for several unobserved segments within the informal sector and apply it to the urban labor market in cote d ivoire

economic consequences of deregulation evidence from the removal of voting cap in indian banks abstract we examine the effect of the 2005 banking regulation amendment bill and the 2011 banking laws amendment bill proposals for removal of the 10 percent voting rights cap in indian banks the 2011 banking laws bill was first introduced in 2005 but lapsed with the dissolution of the 14th lok sabha the bill was passed in december 2012 and raised the voting cap in private sector banks from 10 to 26 percent we present evidence that the removal of the voting cap enhances the value of votes of bank stocks by reducing the wedge between cash flow and control rights thus increasing monitoring and the probability of takeover post deregulation analysis reveals that the passage of the bill was followed by increasing blockholders number and percentage of shares held in larger and government banks furthermore a stronger negative relationship between banks profitability and size as well as share of non performing loans is observed this study makes an important contribution to the growing literature on the valuation impact and efficiency gains of liberalization of ownership restrictions in emerging markets as well as the rich literature on corporate governance and control relating to the value of voting privilege in companies with disparate voting rights

efficiency dynamics in indian banking a conditional directional distance approach abstract the paper contributes to the contemporary research on bank efficiency in india we analyze the efficiency dynamics of the indian banking industry from 2004 to 2012 based on the recent methodological developments of the conditional and unconditional directional distances introduced by daraio and simar 2014 we apply a conditional directional distance estimator in order to analyze the dynamic effects of industry s performance levels the results indicate that foreign banks perform better compared to national and domestic private banks there is also evidence of technological change at the period before the global financial crisis however during and after the global financial crisis these gains diminished the evidence suggests that national banks fail to sustain their high performance levels gained after the industry s restructuring period finally the findings support the view that ownership structure affects banks technical efficiency levels

strategic wind power investment this paper considers the problem of identifying the optimal investment of a strategic wind power investor that participates in both the day ahead da and the balancing markets this investor owns a number of wind power units that jointly with the newly built ones allow it to have a dominant position and to exercise market power in the da market behaving as a deviator in the balancing market in which the investor buys sells its production deviations the model is formulated as a stochastic complementarity model that can be recast as a mixed integer linear programming milp model a static approach is proposed focusing on a future target year whose uncertainties pertaining to demands wind power productions and balancing market prices are precisely described the proposed model is illustrated using a simple example and two case studies

infrastructure provision and macroeconomic performance this paper studies the differences between private and government provision of infrastructure capital utilization decisions and their differential role in determining market prices for capital goods under the two regimes of infrastructure provision serve as a critical transmission mechanism for fiscal policy a subsidy to private providers of infrastructure is preferable to direct government provision irrespective of how the subsidy or expenditure is financed the case for private provision is much stronger in economies characterized by high levels of congestion the choice between private and government provision also has a crucial effect on the design of optimal fiscal policy 2011 elsevier b v all rights reserved

informational efficiency of markets for stumpage comment in a study of the information efficiency of markets for stumpage in the southern united states washburn and binkley found that time series data on stumpage price if given on annual or quarterly bases reveal weak form information efficiency for stumpage markets from this they conclude that there can be no gain from using past price movements to play the market in timing timber harvests p 403 specifically they infer that the reservation price rules derived for optimal forest harvesting by norstrom lohmander and brazee and mendelsohn are not applicable to the management of southern pine timberlands

a game theoretical pricing mechanism for multi area spinning reserve trading considering wind power uncertainty the rapid development of wind power has led to an increased demand for spinning reserve in power systems today however one of the most severe challenges to china s power systems is the mismatch between wind power installation capacity and the capability for supplying spinning reserve within each independently operated provincial power system coordinating the spinning reserve across multiple areas would providentially improve the accommodation of wind power this paper proposes a game theoretical model for spinning reserve trading between provincial systems that treat spinning reserve as a commodity based on the incomplete information the trading price is calculated by satisfying the bayesian nash equilibrium and then the trading quantity is determined this ensures that both the buyer and the seller are able to maximize their expected profit case studies are performed using a 2 bus interconnected system and a 3 area ieee rts system the results show that the proposed model is valid and effective

modeling the impact of a wind power producer as a price maker wind energy is present in many countries throughout the world the main types of wind sales in electricity markets are via regulated tariffs or pool based markets production companies choose cost effective options for selling wind energy and some markets like the irish electricity market use regulated tariffs to remunerate wind production this paper aims to provide some answers to explain what effect wind offers may have in an electricity market if wind power producers participated in the day ahead market without receiving any premium or aid a price maker optimization model is used to detect its effect on prices the model encompasses energy offers by other technologies using residual demand curves and detailed modeling of wind imbalances it is observed that wind acting as price maker reduces electricity prices and the imbalance penalties help the system operator to reduce imbalances a realistic case study using data from the irish electricity market illustrates the methodology used comparing the effect of imbalance penalties in the models in terms of profit and total imbalance of the system

economic reform and informal wage a general equilibrium analysis abstract we attempt to trace the consequences of liberal economic policies on informal wage in a general equilibrium model with formal informal labor markets wage differential vertical linkage and restricted capital movement in particular we show that the informal wage representing income for a vast segment of unskilled labor may actually increase even if more people are employed in the informal segment this also confirms that a contraction in the formal sector employment and the consequent expansion in the informal segment do not necessarily imply impoverishment of the existing set of informal workers

a comparison of the ito and stratonovich formulations of problems in finance abstract a comparison of and the relationship between the ito and stratonovich formulations of stochastic integration is given it is argued that generally the ito formulation is appropriate for problems of finance and economics the black scholes option pricing problem is discussed in both frameworks with the ito formulation being shown to be clearly superior a finance example in which the stratonovich approach is simplest is also presented

operational strategies for a portfolio of wind farms and chp plants in a two price balancing market in this paper we explore the portfolio effect of a system consisting of a combined heat and power chp plant and a wind farm the goal is to increase the overall profit of the portfolio by reducing imbalances and consequently their implicit penalty in a two price balancing market for electricity we investigate two different operational strategies which differ in whether the chp plant and the wind farm are operated jointly or independently and we evaluate their economic performance on a real case study based on a chp wind system located in the western part of denmark we present a comprehensive mathematical model for describing the different heat and power production units of the chp plant and suggest different ways of determining its operation in a setup with two trading floors a day ahead market and a balancing market we build a simulation framework that runs in a rolling horizon fashion so that forecasts for heat demand wind power production and market prices are updated at each iteration we conclude that the portfolio strategy is the most profitable due to the two price structure of the balancing market this encourages producers to handle their imbalances outside the market

the dynamic behavior of efficient timber prices a simple theoreticalmodel of a tim consist ing of faustmann rotations evalubermarket finds that there exists a rational expecta ated at the mean of the price process tions equilibrium in which prices evolve according the central question addressed in this to a stationary a r 1 process simulations analyz e study is what is the appropriate model of a model with a more general representation of tim timber prices this is an important quesber stock dynamics implications for the optimal tion given the prescriptive nature of the harvesting literature are 1 market efficiency pro timber harvesting literature3 vides little justification for random walk prices 2 and evidence unit root tests used in previous studies to analyz e that the form of the price process strongly the informational efficiency of timber markets do influences the performance of a reservanot distinguish between efficient and inefficient tion price rule relative to the faustmann markets and 3 failure to recognize asymmetric rotation haight and holmes 1991 plandisturbances in time series analyses of historical tinga 1998 nonetheless most authors aptimber prices can lead to sub optimal harvesting pear to select the form of the price process rules

a robust linear approach for offering strategy of a hybrid electric energy company this paper presents a new approach for determining the day ahead bidding strategies of a large scale hybrid electric energy company the company has both energy generation and energy retailing businesses in a competitive electricity market demand response programs are also considered in the retail side of the company in order to hedge the risk of participation in wholesale market this paper introduces a max min bilevel mathematical programming with equilibrium constraint model for offering a strategy that manages the risk of uncertain forecasted rivals bids by robust optimization the max min bilevel model is converted to its equivalent single level optimization using karush kuhn tucker optimality conditions the duality theory is utilized to find the equivalent ordinary maximization model of the max min problem strong duality theory and big m method are also used to linearize the final model of offering strategy applicability of the proposed approach is shown by implementing it on the ieee 118 bus test system

poverty and growth in india over six decades we study the evolution of consumption poverty measures for post independence india including 20 years since extensive economic reforms began in 1991 progress against poverty was negligible until the mid 1970s after which a downward trend in poverty measures emerged the pace of poverty reduction accelerated in the post reform period despite rising inequality amidst faster growth a key finding is that the relationship to the pattern of growth changed greatly suggesting stronger intersectoral linkages with urban consumption growth benefiting both the rural and urban poor in contrast to the pre reform period growth in primary secondary and tertiary sector outputs yielded similar impacts on poverty

fatal fluctuations cyclicality in infant mortality in india this paper investigates the impact of aggregate income shocks on infant mortality in india and investigates likely mechanisms a recent oecd dominated literature reports the provocative finding that mortality at most ages is pro cyclical similar analyses for poorer countries are scarce and both income risk and mortality risk are greater in poor countries this paper uses data and methods designed to avoid some of the specification problems in previous studies and it explores mechanisms and extensions that have not been previously considered it uses individual data on infant mortality for about 150 000 children born in 1970 1997 merged by cohort and state of birth with a state panel containing information on aggregate income identification rests upon comparing the effects of annual deviations in income from trend on the mortality risks of children born at different times to the same mother conditional upon a number of state time varying covariates including rainshocks and state social expenditure rural infant mortality is counter cyclical the elasticity being about 0 33 this is despite the finding that relatively high risk women avert birth or suffer fetal loss in recessions it seems in part related to recessions stimulating distress labor amongst mothers in contrast to the case in richer countries where they discourage labor market participation health care seeking declines in recessions and this appears to be related to the opportunity cost of maternal time disaggregation reveals that the average results are driven by rural households in which the mother is uneducated or had her first birth in teenage and that it is only girls that are at risk boys are protected from income shocks exposure to poor conditions in the fetal and neonatal period appears to have a larger effect on infant mortality than similar exposure in the postneonatal period

growth and distress in a south indian peasant economy during the era of economic liberalisation this article analyses the impact of agricultural liberalisation on different farming classes in the region of telangana in south india the region has been witnessing significant growth in real agricultural output over the last 15 years at the same time as nss national sample survey household survey data indicate there have been significant welfare declines not only for marginal farmers and landless labour but for other groups as well there have also been more than a thousand farmer suicides between 1998 and 2002 i argue in this article that during the liberalisation period that is post 1990 agricultural growth and increased distress have become mutually intertwined i use the terms growth inducing distress and distress inducing growth to explain this apparent paradox

global order and the new economic policy in india the post colonial formation of the small scale sector using a class focused marxist approach we elucidate the adopted position of indian small scale sector as a devalued other within the adopted development paradigm that accords primacy to capital and west in the background of this understanding of small scale sector we demonstrate how the new economic policy in the era of globalization could be theorized as a tool to obtain the post colonial hegemony of capital over the small scale sector copyright the author 2008 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

interrogating inclusive growth formal informal duality complementarity conflict i find through analyses of across state across industry over state and pooled data involving state and time on the indian economy that the behaviour of the urban informal unorganised sector is explained by the modern formal organised sector besides petty agriculture but the vast rural informal sector is like surplus population associated only with petty agriculture i also show there could be interactions between the formal sector and modern agriculture these empirical relations are analysed and theoretical departures from the literature are identified i propose using a structuralist kaleckian framework with accumulation in the formal sector a large part of petty agriculture is modernised or converted to suit the needs of accumulation and thereby we have a long run drain of resources from petty agriculture and hence from informal sectors as well however even under such a resource drain the urban informal sector may sustain or expand due to productivity advantages and due to pull from the formal sector at the cost of its rural counterpart in the short run when the formal sector and hence the urban informal sector expand or when the government promotes the urban or productive part of informal economy a basic conflict between urban and rural informal sectors is exposed given the generic agricultural supply constraint thus the paradigms of inclusive growth and development management are questioned copyright oxford university press

energy market design for renewable resources imbalance settlements and efficiency robustness tradeoffs this paper examines optimal energy market bidding behavior for stochastic resources when energy imbalance payments are determined endogenously from market clearing conditions some electricity markets require wind producers to settle day ahead offers based on their real time energy production this is usually justified by economic and cost causation principles without considering the effects of these policies on curtailment and system balancing costs under these real time settlement requirements demand and wind forecast errors impact the effective penalty price so strategic behavior affects the penalty price paid by producers this paper formulates a two stage game where producers place energy bids in the day ahead market and then choose a curtailment level in real time and it derives the symmetric subgame perfect equilibrium strategy for producers it details how supply curve convexity and resource correlation can lead wind producers to bid conservatively even when they are not risk averse the results show that market based pricing mechanisms improve tradeoffs between system efficiency and mean squared bid error as compared to the case where penalty levels are determined by alternative policies suggesting additional benefits of market based penalty prices beyond those previously studied

economics postcolonial theory and the problem of culture institutional analysis and hybridity postcolonial theory has not yet made an impact in economics this may be explained by the different treatment of culture in each field in postcolonial theory culture serves as a central analytical category in economics despite increased attention in recent history general approaches to culture continue to underestimate its role in economic behaviour and decision making borrowing some insights from postcolonial theory this paper calls for further attention to culture in economics it is argued that such a turn improves current understanding of contemporary economic phenomena and allows subaltern cultures currently theorised as less developed to equally participate in the global construction of social meaning and economic well being it is further argued that incorporating the postcolonial idea of hybridity into the institutional economic approach holds the most promise for theorising contemporary postcolonial economies this argument is illustrated by examining some hybrid economic patterns within africa copyright the author 2009 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

optimal offering and operating strategies for wind storage systems with linear decision rules the participation of wind farm energy storage systems wf ess in electricity markets calls for an integrated view of day ahead offering strategies and real time operation policies such an integrated strategy is proposed here by co optimizing offering at the day ahead stage and operation policy to be used at the balancing stage linear decision rules are seen as a natural approach to model and optimize the real time operation policy these allow enhancing profits from balancing markets based on updated information on prices and wind power generation our integrated strategies for wf ess in electricity markets are optimized under uncertainty in both wind power and price predictions the resulting stochastic optimization problem readily yields optimal offers and linear decision rules by adding a risk aversion term in form of conditional value at risk into the objective function the optimization model additionally provides flexibility in finding a trade off between profit maximization and risk management uncertainty in wind power generation as well as day ahead and balancing prices takes the form of scenario sets permitting to reformulate the optimization problem as a linear program case studies validate the effectiveness of the strategy proposed by highlighting and quantifying benefits w r t other existing strategies

trading wind generation in short term energy markets even with state of the art forecasting methods the short term generation of wind farms cannot be predicted with a high degree of accuracy in a market situation these forecasting errors lead to commercial risk through imbalance costs when advance contracting this situation is one that needs to be addressed due to the steady increase in the amount of grid connected wind generation combined with the rise of deregulated market orientated electricity systems in the presence of imbalance prices and uncertain generation a method is required to determine the optimum level of contract energy to be sold on the advance markets such a method is presented here using markov probabilities for a wind farm and demonstrates substantial reductions in the imbalance costs the effect of market closure delays and forecasting window lengths are also shown

demand response application by strategic wind power producers this paper considers a wind power producer playing strategically in a day ahead market while willing to set demand response dr contracts with a dr aggregator to this end a bilevel problem including a single leader and two followers is formulated the wind power producer is the leader aiming at maximizing its profit through offering into a day ahead market and clearing its deviation in a balancing market the strategic behavior of the producer in the day ahead market is modeled through the market clearing process follower 1 in addition the dr aggregator behavior is modeled through a revenue function in which the aggregator is able to sell its dr product to the wind power producer other competitors and the day ahead market follower 2 the overall problem is a stochastic mathematical program with equilibrium constraints mpec in which wind power production and imbalance prices are associated with uncertainty the problem is then transformed into a linear programming approach a case of the nordic market is chosen to assess the validity of the given problem

estimating gamma for tail hedge discount rates when project returns are cointegrated with gdp martin weitzman has suggested a method for calculating social discount rates for long term investments when project returns are covariant with consumption or other macroeconomic variables so calle

economic reforms in india since 1991 has gradualism worked opinions on the causes of india s growth deceleration vary world economic growth was slower in the second half of the 1990s and that would have had some dampening effect but india s dependence on the world economy is not large enough for this to account for the slowdown critics of liberalization have blamed the slowdown on the effect of trade policy reforms on domestic industry however the opposite view is that the slowdown is due not to the effects of reforms but rather to the failure to implement the reforms effectively this in turn is often attributed to india s gradualist approach to reform which has meant a frustratingly slow pace of implementation however even a gradualist pace should be able to achieve significant policy changes over ten years this paper examines india s experience with gradualist reforms from this perspective

economics and the family a postcolonial perspective a postcolonial perspective in the history of economic thought reveals the ways in which racial theory was built into the foundations of neoclassical economics neoclassical economics emerged within the context of nineteenth century european colonisation and this paper connects the material practices of colonisation in australia to this emerging body of theory in particular the paper focuses on the western breadwinner dependent family ideal that was deeply embedded within economic visions of development prosperity and progress i argue that neoclassical economics naturalised and justified colonial practices that sought to impose the homogeneity of culture desires and needs used to justify the displacement and subordination of the colonised aborigines copyright oxford university press

the optimal production of an exhaustible resource when price is exogenous and stochastic this paper examines the optimal production of a resource such as oil when its price is determined exogenously e g by a cartel such as opec and is subject to stochastic fluctuations away from an expected growth path we first examine the dependence of production on extraction cost and show that the conventional exponential decline curve is indeed optimal if marginal cost is constant with respect to the rate of extraction but is a hyperbolic function of the reserve level we next show that uncertainty about future price affects the optimal production rate in two ways first if marginal cost is a convex concave function of the rate of production stochastic fluctuations in price raise lower average cost over time so that there is an incentive to speed up slow down production second the option value of the reserve i e the ability to withhold production indefinitely and never incur the cost of extraction provides an incentive to slow down the rate of production

trade barriers multinational involvement and intra industry trade panel data evidence from india the article analyses the effects of trade barriers and multinationals on the intensity of intra industry trade iit in a panel of indian manufacturing industries from 1988 to 1999 we find that the intensity of iit increases with the reduction of trade barriers this is expected as greater competition from imports leads individual plants in the domestic industry to specialize in the manufacturing of unique varieties the analysis suggests that horizontal market seeking multinational activities in the domestic industries exert a negative influence on iit this is consistent with the view that horizontal multinationals displace exports to the host country at the same time our results indicate that iit will be stimulated to the extent that the entry of multinationals induces intra industry specialization we also analyse the role of product differentiation and plant level scale economies in determining iit

the changing pattern of foreign trade specialization in indian manufacturing this paper examines the pattern of international trade specialization in indian manufacturing since the mid 1980s by using data on trade flows low technology sectors still dominate the categories for which india exhibits the largest degree of trade specialization by contrast high technology sectors are prevalent among the categories for which india is import dependent significantly india has experienced an improvement in the degree of specialization in some of the most dynamic sectors of world trade

weekly self scheduling forward contracting and pool involvement for an electricity producer an adaptive robust optimization approach abstract this paper addresses the optimization under uncertainty of the self scheduling forward contracting and pool involvement of an electricity producer operating a mixed power generation station which combines thermal hydro and wind sources and uses a two stage adaptive robust optimization approach in this problem the wind power production and the electricity pool price are considered to be uncertain and are described by uncertainty convex sets to solve this problem two variants of a constraint generation algorithm are proposed and their application and characteristics discussed both algorithms are used to solve two case studies based on two producers each operating equivalent generation units differing only in the thermal units characteristics their market strategies are investigated for three different scenarios corresponding to as many instances of electricity price forecasts the effect of the producers approach whether conservative or more risk prone is also investigated by solving each instance for multiple values of the so called budget parameter it was possible to conclude that this parameter influences markedly the producers strategy in terms of scheduling profit forward contracting and pool involvement these findings are presented and analyzed in detail and an attempted rationale is proposed to explain the less intuitive outcomes regarding the computational results these show that for some instances the two variants of the algorithms have a similar performance while for a particular subset of them one variant has a clear superiority

intellectual capital and firm performance evidence from indian banking sector in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis the entire indian banking industry was paralysed and their performance was shattered by the unfolding of enormous cases of non performing assets npa

harvest decisions and asset valuation for biological resources exhibiting size dependent stochastic growth optimal harvest rules and preharvest valuation procedures are derived for biological assets with stochastic size dependent growth in a stochastic price environment these issues are analyzed as continuous time optimal stopping problems both the single rotation and ongoing rotations problems are addressed the sensitivity of harvest and valuation rules is assessed the results are compared with those derived from a myopic look ahead procedure and with the corresponding findings for age dependent growth copyright 1990 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

india s post green revolution agricultural performance what is driving growth following a period of poor performance in the 1990s india s agricultural growth rate has reaccelerated in the 2000s some believe the reacceleration has been a product of intensified investment which in turn has spurred yield growth others suggest it is because india s newly wealthy citizens have demanded greater product diversification to examine these hypotheses we use growth accounting techniques in conjunction with more complete agricultural production data than in past studies to construct state regional and national output input and total factor productivity quantity indexes which can be decomposed into their underlying sources sectoral performance evaluation suggests that since 1980 output growth has diffused away from the northern grain belt and toward high value agriculture in traditionally less productive regions productivity growth rather than resource use has accounted for these geographical and intensity shifts the growth burst has not as the literature has primarily argued been uniquely explainable by yield growth or product diversification but by a variety of factors including area expansion for example the contributions of irrigation technologies permitting double cropping have until now been largely ignored

the tree cutting problem in a stochastic environment the case of age dependent growth abstract harvest policies are derived for growing biological assets e g forests livestock subject to stochastic age dependent growth and price uncertainty the task posed is analyzed as a continuous time optimal stopping problem for diffusion processes both single and ongoing rotation problems are considered qualitative comparative static and numerical results are provided

risk assessment of virtual power plants offering in energy and reserve markets distributed energy resources ders can be integrated into a single entity namely virtual power plant vpp the integration enables them to participate in competitive wholesale electricity markets according to the different types of uncertainty faced by different ders this integration can also act as a risk hedging mechanism providing a surplus profit in this paper using a two stage stochastic programming approach risk averse optimal offering model for a vpp trading in a joint market of energy and spinning reserve service is presented the conditional value at risk cvar is used to control the risk of profit variability uncertainties involved in generation of renewables consumption of loads calls for reserve service as well as prices in the day ahead market the spinning reserve market rm and the balancing real time market bm are taken into consideration this paper assesses how total and surplus profits of vpp are affected by risk aversion participation in the rm and the pricing system in the bm for this purpose the role of the integration and the trends of energy and reserve transactions under both single and dual pricing systems in the bm are addressed in detail through a numerical study

intraday trading of wind energy in this paper we tackle the problem of a wind power producer participating in a short term electricity market that allows for the continuous but potentially illiquid intraday trading of energy considering the realistic case of a wind farm operating in the western danish price area of nord pool we build a simple but effective algorithm for the wind power producer to fully benefit from the elbas intraday market we then investigate the sensitivity of the obtained benefits to the maximum volume of energy the wind power producer is willing to trade in the intraday market the ultimate aim of the trade either to decrease energy imbalances or to increase profits and to the installed capacity of the wind farm our numerical results reveal that the wind power producer can substantially increase his revenues by partaking in the intraday market but with diminishing returns to scale a result that we attribute to the low liquidity of elbas

timber price dynamics following a natural catastrophe catastrophic shocks to existing stocks of a renewable resource can cause long run price shifts with timber these long run price shifts may be accompanied by a short run price drop due to salvage hurricane hugo damaged 20 of southern pine timber in the south carolina coastal plain in 1989 to estimate the short and long run effects of the hurricane on the prices of timber stocks we estimated an intervention model of the residuals of cointegration of south carolina sawtimber and pulpwood stumpage prices with prices of similar products from other regions modeling revealed a 30 negative price spike due to salvage and a long run enhancement effect leading to prices that are 10 to 30 higher than they would have been had hugo not occurred

the enigma of india india s high growth over the last fifteen years has inspired several recent books and papers to examine the growth s source and sustainability the two volume study by arvind virmani being a case in point this paper evaluates these recent works it is argued that the cause of the take off does not fit into any easy ideological category as suggested by virmani the current high growth has been achieved in several steps with distinct factors of propulsion behind each step there is reason to expect the growth to be sustainable although destabilizing political tensions will arise from the increasing inequality the paper also evaluates how india s growth relates to the global economy

co2 emissions from household consumption in india between 1993 94 and 2006 07 a decomposition analysis abstract co 2 emission from anthropogenic activities is one of the major causes of global warming india being an agriculture dependent country global warming would mean monsoon instability and consequent food scarcity natural disasters and economic concerns however with proper policy interventions co 2 emissions can be controlled input output analysis has been used to estimate direct and indirect co 2 emissions by households for 1993 94 1998 99 2003 04 and 2006 07 complete decomposition analysis of the changes in co 2 emissions between 1993 94 and 2006 07 has been done to identify the causes into pollution energy intensity structure activity and population effects according to broad household consumption categories results indicate that activity structure and population effects are the main causes of increase in co 2 emission from household fuel consumption to identify the causes at the sectoral level a second decomposition has been done for changes between 2003 04 and 2006 07 to identify the causes in the next stage finally alternative energy policy options have been examined for each consumption category to reduce emissions combined strategies of technology upgradation fuel switching and market management in order to reduce co 2 emissions for sectors like batteries other non electrical machinery construction and electronic equipments including television for which all the effects are positive need to be adopted

an alternative explanation of india s growth transition a demand side hypothesis this paper formalises the balance of payments constrained bpc growth model in a two regime framework to re examine india s growth transition in 1980 from a demand side perspective as an alternative to the supply oriented approaches of previous studies the results provide strong evidence of a demand led growth transition although the government led expenditure strategy of the 1980s fulfilled the role of moving the indian economy out of its slow growing demand regime 1952 79 into a faster growing one it could not sustain demand growth at the natural rate due to a balance of payments constraint consistent with the prediction of the bpc growth model faster export growth in the post 1990 liberalisation period sustained demand growth at its maximum rate by allowing expenditure including government spending to grow at a fast rate the analysis further suggests that india s export surge in the post 1990 liberalisation period has a significant demand side explanation rather than an exclusively supply side interpretation

getting reforms done in inhospitable institutional environments untying a gordian knot in india s power distribution sector when grand institutional reforms based on idealized models are stalled by the poor institutional environments and difficult politics which often surround large infrastructure systems in developing countries partial reforms whose design and implementation take into account the different interests of the key stakeholders can provide valuable and immediate benefits while moving these systems from low towards higher level equilibria strategically negotiated experimentally partial and purposefully hybrid these reforms are based on careful stakeholder analysis and strategic coalition building that avoid rigid positions based on idealized models our findings are based on a study of power sector reforms in india where we performed a micro level and in depth analysis of a partial and innovative experiment which has allowed private sector participation in electricity distribution within a hostile institutional environment

options uncertainty and sunk costs an empirical analysis of land use change abstract in a real option model of land conversion incorporating return uncertainty and sunk costs optimal conversion thresholds are significantly higher than those from expected net present value models not accounting for these factors empirical tests of conversion from agriculture to forest suggest that landowners value the option to convert when making conversion decisions higher uncertainty in returns to all potential uses and lower correlation between shocks to agricultural and forest returns decreases the likelihood of conversion estimates indicate a significant impact on conversion decisions with approximations of option values ranging from 7 to 81 of the expected value of the land asset

incentives to create jobs regional subsidies national trade policy and foreign direct investment a national authority wishes to attract foreign direct investment fdi to create local jobs we analyse the optimal national trade policy when local authorities might offer subsidies to convince a multi national enterprise mne to invest in their jurisdiction with centralised decision making or with allocation of investment to particular localities the central authority s optimal policy is to use a high tariff to avoid payment of any subsidy to the mne despite this some socially undesirable but locally desirable fdi cannot be avoided if local authorities compete to offer subsidies to attract local investment then the central government s optimal policy is to try to discourage fdi by choosing a low tariff despite this some socially undesirable and even locally undesirable fdi prevails we conduct our analysis both assuming an upper bound on tariffs as would be consistent with trade liberalisation and allowing tariffs to vary freely the effect of increasing trade liberalisation depends heavily on the system of granting local subsidies if the system is centralised trade liberalisation decreases the range of parameters for which fdi occurs if the system is decentralised and competitive it increases this range

output and labor productivity in organized manufacturing a panel cointegration analysis for india abstract one of the policy puzzles faced in india during the last two and half decades has been the weak association between output and labor markets particularly in the manufacturing sector in this research we investigate the long run relationship between output labor productivity and real wages in the case of organized manufacturing we adjust the measure of labor productivity incorporating bottlenecks such as lack of infrastructure access to external finance and labor regulations which all may influence labor market outcomes using panel data from seventeen manufacturing industries we establish long run dynamics for the output labor productivity real wages series over a period of nearly three decades we employ recently developed panel unit root and cointegration tests for cross sectional dependence to incorporate heterogeneity across industries long run elasticities are generally found to be low for labor productivity compared to real wages due to the changes in manufacturing output there are variations across industries within the manufacturing sector for the effects of the labor market on manufacturing output in some industries lower wages are associated with higher output and the reason for the positive relationship in other industries could be due to workers bargaining power

a stochastic analysis of the tree paradigm abstract the tree paradigm which is a problem in optimal stopping has important ramifications for human capital acquisition search behavior firm entry and in the theory of renewable resources our paper extends previous work in the stochastic literature on several fronts we exhibit a tractable solution to the rotation problem for the stochastic model analyze the effects of inputs which control the growth process and illustrate our results with a multi stage learning problem

taxation and rotation age under stochastic forest stand value abstract the paper uses both the single rotation and ongoing rotation framework to study the impact of yield tax lump sum tax and tax on interest rate earnings on the privately optimal rotation period when forest stand value is stochastic and forest owners are risk averse or risk neutral under risk aversion the optimal harvesting threshold is lower and therefore the expected rotation period shorter than under risk neutrality both in the single and ongoing rotation cases whether the forest owner is risk averse or risk neutral a higher yield tax a higher lump sum tax or a higher tax on interest rate earnings raise the optimal harvesting threshold numerical results indicate that the optimal harvesting threshold increases less rapidly under risk aversion than under risk neutrality with an increase in either a yield tax or the volatility of forest stand value

the rural non farm sector issues and evidence from developing countries abstract the rural non farm sector has traditionally been viewed as a low productivity sector which produces low quality goods it is often expected to wither away as a country develops recent years have seen a shift away from this position towards recognition that the rural non farm sector can and often does contribute to economic growth rural employment poverty reduction and a more spatially balanced population distribution this paper reviews the literature on the conceptual and empirical underpinnings of this more recent perspective focussing on the experience in developing countries the paper documents the size and heterogeneity of the sector pointing to evidence that in many countries the sector is expanding rather than declining the issues associated with measuring the sector s economic contribution are discussed followed by empirical assessments for several countries and regions the distributional impact of non farm earnings is examined and it is found that a pro poor impact while by no means inevitable can be considerable the sector s trajectory over time in different settings is reviewed and the scope for and experience of various policy interventions is discussed

post keynesianism without modernity a robust and critical post keynesianism can be specified on the basis of time uncertainty and the investigation of the institutions that structure material life without presupposing what those institutions are this paper criticises the inclusion in influential presentations of the axiomatic foundation of post keynesianism of propositions about government and money that presuppose a particular ensemble of institutions that ensemble corresponds to the ideal type called modernity without modernity post keynesianism gains logical parsimony and breadth of application the paper discusses non modernist writers in the tradition that includes j m keynes k n raj celso furtado and juan noyola

economic liberalization and indian economic growth what s the evidence india s growth and poverty performance over the last three decades has been a subject of great curiosity unlike the east asian countries india s growth spurt is not associated with exceptionally high domestic savings or foreign capital inflows or manufacturing exports so what triggered the change in the growth trajectory did the market liberalization policies of the 1990s help how have the initial conditions shaped the process and how has the indian model impinged on india s central problem of mass poverty this paper surveys the literature and offers its own assessment of the drivers of change jel i32 o13 o14 o15 o21 o47

equilibria in an oligopolistic electricity pool with stepwise offer curves we study the equilibria reached by strategic producers in a pool based network constrained electricity market the behavior of each producer is modeled by a mathematical program with equilibrium constraints mpec whose objective is maximizing profit and whose complementarity constraints describe market clearing the joint solution of all these mpecs constitutes an equilibrium problem with equilibrium constraints epec the equilibria associated with the epec are analyzed by solving the strong stationarity conditions of all mpecs which can be linearized without approximation by mixed integer linear programming milp techniques the resulting mixed integer linear conditions can be reformulated as an optimization problem that allows establishing diverse objectives to differentiate among alternative equilibria

rural nonagricultural activities in development theory and application abstract this paper focusses on the potentially important role of rural nonagricultural activity in the development process using the hymer resnick z goods model as a point of departure we first show that its pessimistic conclusions are based on rather restrictive assumptions as applied to the colonial period we relax these assumptions indicating the theoretical possibility of a substantially more positive scenario for that period subsequently we analyze the role of z goods traditional and nontraditional in the post independence era again distinguishing between archetypal pessimistic and optimistic cases finally the comparative historical experience of the philippines and taiwan is brought to bear to illustrate the argument empirically

on solving the multirotational timber harvesting problem with stochastic prices a linear complementarity formulation this article develops a two factor real options model of the harvesting decision over infinite rotations assuming a known stochastic price process and using a rigorous hamilton jacobi bellman methodology the harvesting problem is formulated as a linear complementarity problem that is solved numerically using a fully implicit finite difference method this approach is contrasted with the markov decision process models commonly used in the literature the model is used to estimate the value of a representative stand in ontario s boreal forest both when there is complete flexibility regarding harvesting time and when regulations dictate the harvesting date

governing india s land under conditions of market orientation and globalization land is being transferred from agriculture and common property uses to corporate farming private industry and the service sector how are intra and international land transactions governed using the case of india this paper emphasizes the sub national scale fieldwork in gujarat west bengal and tamil nadu reveals states to be competing with each other to attract private investment yet given institutional and political variation their land provision ranges from attempted market friendly policy change to narrower state business alliances it is time for scholarship and resultant policy recommendations to look beyond the national and global scales

india trade policy review the review of india s trade policy by the wto the third of its kind is in three parts the report by the wto secretariat a statement by the government of india and minutes of the discussion of the report by the trade policy review board the review provides detailed information not only on india s trade and foreign investment policies but also an analytical review of india s export and economic performance the review notes that india has made considerable progress with the liberalisation of its trade and investment regime but it has a long way to go if it were to achieve a growth rate of eight to nine per cent the stated objective of the policy makers this paper drawing upon the material in the report analyses india s growth prospects and endorses the broad conclusions of the report

the diverging patterns of profitability investment and growth of china and india during 1980 2003 summary this paper documents the diverging patterns of capital accumulation profit rates investment rates capital productivity and technological progress of china and india between 1980 and 2003 the two asian economies have followed very different growth patterns and today they face different challenges india s is how to accelerate growth while china s policy makers debate between the need to maintain a high growth rate to generate employment and the imperative to reduce it to cool the economy india must address impediments to investment china must deal with the question of whether investment can continue being the main source of growth

offering strategy of wind power producer a multi stage risk constrained approach given the significant amount of installed generation capacity based on wind power and also due to current economic downturn the subsidies and incentives that have been widely used by wind power producers to recover their investment costs have decreased and are even expected to disappear in the near future in these conditions wind power producers need to develop offering strategies to make their investments profitable counting solely on the market this paper proposes a multi stage risk constrained stochastic complementarity model to derive the optimal offering strategy of a wind power producer that participates in both the day ahead and the balancing markets uncertainties concerning wind power productions market prices demands bids and rivals offers are efficiently modeled using a set of scenarios the conditional value at risk metric is used to model the profit risk associated with the offering decisions the proposed model is recast as a tractable mixed integer linear programming program solvable using available branch and cut algorithms results of a case study are reported and discussed to show the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed approach

minimization of imbalance cost trading wind power on the short term power market present power markets are designed for trading conventional generation for wind generation to participate in a short term energy market lengthy wind power production forecasts are required although wind speed forecasting techniques are constantly improving wind speed forecasts are never perfect and resulting wind power forecast errors imply imbalance costs for wind farm owners in this paper a new method for minimization of imbalance costs is developed stochastic programming is used to generate optimal wind power production bids for a short term power market a wind power forecast error is represented as a stochastic process the imbalance costs resulting from this strategy are then compared to the case when wind power production bids on a short term power market are based directly on a wind speed forecast

distribution of cost and profit efficiency evidence from indian banking this paper uses the nonparametric dea methodology to estimate cost and profit efficiency of indian banks during the post reform period the results show considerable variation in average levels of profit efficiency across various ownership categories of banks in general state owned banks are found to be more efficient than their private counter parts further efficiency tends to be low among the small banks assets up to rs 50 billion indicating that at the existing scale of operations these banks are operating far below the efficient frontier we also examine the distribution of efficiency using nonparametric kernel density estimates the analysis reveals a rightward shift of the efficiency distribution over the years a major part of this shift comes from the state owned banks based on the conditional distribution the study finds strong evidence of ownership explaining the efficiency differential of banks additionally bank size and product mix are also found to be important although to a lesser extent

wind power offering strategy in day ahead markets employing demand response in a two stage plan this paper deals with wind power offering strategies in day ahead markets a new plan is proposed in which a wind power producer participates in the day ahead market while employing demand response dr to smooth its power variations in this context a new dr scheme is presented through which the wind power producer is able to achieve dr by establishing various dr agreements with dr aggregators the proposed offering plan involves two stages the first stage clears on the day ahead market the wind power producer decides on day ahead offers as well as dr agreements with the aggregator the second stage takes place on the balancing market in a successive approach the wind power producer determines its energy trading for each period until the whole day is covered additionally proper dr agreements for each period are confirmed here the proposed plan is formulated in a stochastic programming approach where its validity is assessed on a case of the nordic market

comparisons of real output and productivity of chinese and indian manufacturing 1980 2002 the principal objective of this paper is to compare the real output and labour productivity of chinese and indian manufacturing from 1980 to 2002 using an industry of origin approach purchasing power parities ppps for the benchmark year 1985 are derived from the chinese and indian industrial censuses in turn the ppps are used to convert indian manufacturing gdp into chinese yuan for direct comparisons secondary objectives are twofold first to set this direct comparison within the general context of the economic policy reform process followed in each country and second to compare and contrast the organisation and structure of both countries manufacturing sectors the analysis shows that since 1980 real value added and labour productivity growth for chinese manufacturing has been well above indian levels

trading wind generation from short term probabilistic forecasts of wind power due to the fluctuating nature of the wind resource a wind power producer participating in a liberalized electricity market is subject to penalties related to regulation costs accurate forecasts of wind generation are therefore paramount for reducing such penalties and thus maximizing revenue despite the fact that increasing accuracy in spot forecasts may reduce penalties this paper shows that if such forecasts are accompanied with information on their uncertainty i e in the form of predictive distributions then this can be the basis for defining advanced strategies for market participation such strategies permit to further increase revenues and thus enhance competitiveness of wind generation compared to other forms of dispatchable generation this paper formulates a general methodology for deriving optimal bidding strategies based on probabilistic forecasts of wind generation as well as on modeling of the sensitivity a wind power producer may have to regulation costs the benefits resulting from the application of these strategies are clearly demonstrated on the test case of the participation of a multi mw wind farm in the dutch electricity market over a year

optimal offering and operating strategy for a large wind storage system as a price maker wind farms and energy storage systems are playing increasingly more important roles in power systems which makes their offering nonnegligible in some markets from the perspective of wind farm energy storage systems wf ess this paper proposes an integrated strategy of day ahead offering and real time operation policies to maximize their overall profit as participants with large capacity in electricity markets can influence cleared prices by strategic offering a large scaled wf ess is assumed to be a price maker in day ahead markets correspondingly the strategy considers influence of offering quantity on cleared day ahead prices and adopts linear decision rules as the real time control strategy these allow enhancing overall profits from both day ahead and balancing markets the integrated price maker strategy is formulated as a stochastic programming problem where uncertainty of wind power generation and balancing prices are taken into account in the form of scenario sets permitting to reformulate the optimization problem as a linear program case studies validate the effectiveness of the proposed strategy by highlighting and quantifying benefits comparing with the price taker strategy and also show the profit enhancement brought to the distributed resources

drivers for energy consumption a comparative analysis of china and india abstract china and india accounted for two thirds of the world s rise in energy use between 2000 and 2012 this paper aimed to calculate the p population a affluence t technology effects of energy use in china and india the world s two most populous and largest developing countries to this end a combination of the ipat method and the logarithmic mean divisia index technique and annual time series data on population energy consumption and gross domestic product during 1970 2012 are used in china a 12 53 fold growth of energy use emissions from 1970 to 2012 is driven by a combination of rapid growth in individual income and slow growth in population with offset by technological advancement since 1980 the accelerating rise in energy use since 2000 is a result of accelerating growth rates in individual income and a reversal of earlier declining in energy intensity technological advancement unlike china the long term rise in energy use exceeded the long term rise in individual income in india in addition a strong trend of decline in energy intensity has not yet occurred in india thus a 7 39 folds growth of indian energy use for 1970 2012 was a result of relatively rapid increase in population and relatively slow increase in income without effective offset by technological advancement it suggests that market oriented economic and energy reforms need to send the correct price signal to promote energy efficient technologies thus improving energy efficiency which is the key to a sustainable energy future in china and india

a simple competitive model with production and storage we study a rational expectations partial equilibrium model of a market for a single storable commodity whose output each period is a function of previous period effort on production and a realization of a shock that affects equally all producers i he final demand is non random and depends only on each period s price risk neutral producers make production and storage decisions based on forecasts of future price distributions existence of equilibrium is proved and for the case of i i d shocks several comparative statics results are established as well as the existence and stability of a unique stationary distribution and whose output at each period is a multiplicative function of previous period s planting and of the realization of a shock that affects equally all producers the final demand for this good is non random and depends only on this period s price this describes approximately markets for agricultural products which are not traded internationally and where most of the price uncertainty stems from supply shocks risk neutral producers make their decisions based on forecasts of future price distributions and of known cost functions of storage and production to maximize their discounted profits in order to close the model an assumption on how such price forecasts are made is needed we assume that agents make equilibrium forecasts i e that their forecast is common and that when producers act taking the forecasted prices as given they make decisions that yield the forecasted prices as equilibrium prices this is of course what has been sometimes called rational expectations the assumption of equilibrium expectations and the presence of risk neutral pro ducers will imply that the equilibrium variables may be obtained by considering a related market surplus maximization problem 1 this places strong restriction on the stochastic process of equilibrium prices for the case where the basic shocks are assumed to be independently and identically distributed over time one may thus show that equilibrium prices are a function of a certain state variable the total stocks kept from last period plus this period s output and this allows us to derive properties of equilibrium solutions our main results concerning this case are a storage is a non increasing function of price and expected production a non decreasing one b the elasticity of expected future prices with respect to today s prices is positive and less than one c this elasticity is non constant being zero for high enough prices d the price process follows a renewal process if prices are low

the valuation of forestry resources under stochastic prices and inventories a contingent claims approach to capital budgeting may be preferable to traditional methods where uncertainty and managers strategic reactions to changing conditions are impor tant as an example of such a case we solve the classical problem of the duration of an investment in forestry resources i e when to cut down the trees in the general case of stochastic output prices and stochastic natural growth rate and timber inventories a con tingent claims approach is used to value the forestry resources as a function of 1 sto chastic prices and inventories and 2 an asymmetric optimal production policy that incorporates the option to halt timber production temporarily i introduction classical capital budgeting techniques are based on the assumption that fu ture cash flows follow a rigid pattern and can be accurately predicted far into the future on the basis of such cash flow predictions the project is either accepted or rejected the uncertainty in the project and management s strategic reactions to changing conditions are dealt with only superficially at best a risk adjusted interest rate is employed and various deterministic scenarios are plotted out in situations where uncertainty and management s strategic reactions to it are im portant the classical technique is apt to lead to wrong decisions the technology needed to deal with such problems more accurately is becoming available the purpose of this paper is to present a stylized example of how it can be used our example is a general solution to the classical duration problem of the optimal control of a long term renewable resource investment such as forestry resources i e when to chop down a tree 1 if the prices and the natural growth rate of the inventory of forest timber are assumed to be deterministic the optimal control is very simple to derive but when both the price and inventory of timber are stochastic the problem becomes both stochastic and asymmetric the asym

changes in wage structure in urban india 1983 2004 a quantile regression decomposition summary this paper utilizes individual level earnings data from urban india to examine the evolution of wages during 1983 2004 across the entire wage distribution quantile regression analysis reveals that the effects of many covariates are not constant across distribution returns to secondary and tertiary education not only increased in the 1990s but also became more heterogeneous suggesting wage inequality may increase further in near future as more workers get higher education moreover the quantile regression decomposition suggests that the increase in returns has been the driving force behind the increase in wages in both the 1980s and 1990s

crowding out or crowding in public and private investment in india abstract this paper contributes to the debate on the relationship between public and private investment in india along the following dimensions first acknowledging major structural changes that the indian economy has undergone in the past three decades we study whether public investment in recent years has become more or less complementary to private investment in comparison to the period before 1980 second we construct a novel data set of quarterly aggregate public and private investment in india over the period 1996 2015 using investment project data from the capex cmie database third embedding a theory driven long run relationship on the model we estimate a range of structural vector error correction models svecms to re examine the public and private investment relationship in india identification is achieved by decomposing shocks into those with transitory and permanent effects our results suggest that while public investment crowds out private investment in india over the period 1950 2012 the opposite is true when we restrict the sample to post 1980 or conduct a quarterly analysis since 1996 this change can likely be attributed to the policy reforms which started during the early 1980s and gained momentum after the 1991 crisis

ambivalence of class subjectivity the sharecroppers of the post bellum southern usa the paper argues that the economic literature on sharecropping uses a modernist notion of subjectivity that fails to explain the complexity of economic behaviour or the social context in which agency is formed i look at the case of economic subjectivity of southern sharecropping tenants in the post bellum usa using non determinist marxist class analysis together with the concept of subjectivity drawing from postcolonial theory in particular the work of homi bhabha i argue that this alternative approach to economic subjectivity which posits an ambivalent or contradictory subjectivity provides us with a better analytical grasp of economic agency and a better explanation of the perpetuation or demise of a productive form such as sharecropping copyright the author 2008 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

informational efficiency of markets for stumpage reply we appreciate the opportunity to reply to hultkrantz s comment on our analysis of the informational efficiency of markets for pine sawtimber stumpage in the u s south washburn and binkley the efficiency or inefficiency of stumpage markets does indeed have important implications for forest management decisions and we are pleased by hultkrantz s interest in the subject his comment makes many valid points and furthers the debate on stumpage market efficiency there are however some issues raised by hultkrantz that require discussion clarification or correction our reply proceeds in five stages first we clarify the meaning of stumpage market efficiency and illustrate its consequences for the time series behavior of stumpage prices and for the profitability of priceresponsive timber harvesting strategies second we argue that the price elasticity of aggregate timber supply has little relevance to the question of stumpage market efficiency third we show that hultkrantz s analysis of the stationarity of southern pine stumpage prices and our analysis of the serial relationship between departures from equilibrium rates of stumpage price change are simply alternative means of testing the hypothesis that stumpage markets are weak form efficient fourth we argue that hultkrantz s results are largely consistent with those presented in washburn and binkley finally we interpret the results of tests of stumpage market efficiency to date and suggest a path forward