capital utilization and capital accumulation theory and evidence a firm may acquire additional capital input by purchasing new capital or by increasing the utilization of its current capital the margin between capital accumulation and capital utilization is studied in a model of dynamic factor demand where the firm chooses capital labour and their rates of utilization a direct measure of capital utilization the work week of capital is incorporated into the theory and estimates the estimates imply that capital stock is costly to adjust while the work week of capital is essentially costless to adjust the estimated response of the capital stock to changes in its price and in the required rate of return is more rapid than found in other estimates

analyzing the impact of the world s largest public works project on crime india started the implementation of a rural public works program in 2006 covering all districts of the country within 3 years the program guarantees 100 days of employment per year at minimum wage to each rural household with the goal of reducing joblessness and poverty we exploit the design and implementation of this program to investigate its employment impact on various types of crimes to provide rare evidence on the employment crime relationship in a developing country context we find that employment generated by the program has a negative impact on both property crime and violent crime the same conclusion is reached when we analyze the impact of the program using its staggered rollout structure as the source of identification in a difference in difference analysis although crime elasticities with respect to employment are small this finding represents another dimension of the social benefit generated by the program jel k4 e24 h54

crime deterrence and the business cycle in new york city a var approach a bstract we apply a var vector autoregressive technique to estimate the interrelationships between unemployment arrests police demographics and property related felony crimes in new york city from 1970 to 1984 despite the limitations of using a var the technique provides a useful alternative to more standard models in analyzing what causes crime the study concludes that arrests provide a strong deterrent to crimes but the reverse effect of crime on arrests is extremely small we find a brief and relatively weak effect of changes in unemployment rates on crime changes in demographics are associated with relatively stronger changes in crime rates

on the utilisation controversy a theoretical and empirical discussion of the kaleckian model of growth and distribution this paper examines the utilisation controversy around the kaleckian model of growth and distribution we show that the federal reserve data on capacity utilisation which have been used by both sides of this debate are the wrong kind of data for the issue under examination instead a more appropriate measurement can be derived from the data on the average workweek of capital we argue that the long run dynamic adjustment proposed by kaleckian scholars lacks a coherent economic rationale we provide an alternative path towards the endogeneity of the desired utilisation at the micro and macro levels finally we examine the proposed adjustment mechanism econometrically our results verify the endogeneity of the normal utilisation rate

crime rates and local labor market opportunities in the united states 1979 1997 the labor market prospects of young unskilled men fell dramatically in the 1980s and improved in the 1990s crime rates show a reverse pattern increasing during the 1980s and falling in the 1990s because young unskilled men commit most crime this paper seeks to establish a causal relationship between the two trends previous work on the relationship between labor markets and crime focused mainly on the relationship between the unemployment rate and crime and found inconclusive results in contrast this paper examines the impact of both wages and unemployment on crime and uses instrumental variables to establish causality we conclude that both wages and unemployment are significantly related to crime but that wages played a larger role in the crime trends over the last few decades these results are robust to the inclusion of deterrence variables controls for simultaneity and controlling for individual and family characteristics

a three gap model of foreign transfers and the gdp growth rate in developing countries abstract a simplified macroeconomic framework is developed for the fiscal gap which is considered to be an important stumbling block for adjustment with growth in highly indebted developing countries distinctive characteristics of a fiscally constrained economy are compared with those of economies constrained either by the availability of savings or foreign exchange tentative implications for external conditionality accompanying debt relief measures are derived

motivations for aid to developing countries abstract this paper attempts to identify the underlying principles of aid allocation and particularly the balance of motivations as between the needs of recipient countries and the interests of donor countries two alternative models are fitted by cross country regressions to bilateral and multilateral aid flows to some 80 developing countries in 1969 1970 and 1978 1980 the first recipient need model assumes that all aid is given to compensate for shortfalls in domestic resources this model provides a reasonable explanation for the distribution of multilateral aid but it is clearly not applicable for bilateral aid flows the second donor interest model assumes that all aid serves only donor interests defined to cover political security investment and trade interests this model gives generally good explanations of bilateral aid but is a poor fit for multilateral aid the relative importance of the various donor interests differs sharply among donors the paper ends with an analysis of the shift in the balance of aid over the 1970s towards the recipient need element and with a reference to the sharp change in policy in the 1980s towards increasing emphasis on donor interest aid

a dynamic model of differential human capital and criminal activity this paper presents a dynamic model of criminal activity individuals are endowed with legal and criminal human capital potential incomes in legal and criminal sectors depend on the level of the relevant human capital the rate of return and random shocks human capital can be enhanced by participating in both sectors legal human capital can also be enhanced through investment human capital is subject to depreciation individuals maximize expected discounted lifetime utility which depends on consumption the model allows analyses of the effects of recessions imprisonment rehabilitation scenarios sanctions and returns to human capital new insights such as hysteresis in criminal behaviour are obtained

using electoral cycles in police hiring to estimate the effect of police on crime comment previous empirical studies have uncovered little evidence that police reduce crime possibly due to simultaneity problems this paper uses the timing of mayoral and gubernatorial elections as an instrumental variable to identify a causal effect of police on crime increases in the size of police forces are shown to be disproportionately concentrated in mayoral and gubernatorial election years increases in police are shown to substantially reduce violent crime but have a smaller impact on property crime the null hypothesis that the marginal social benefit of reduced crime equals the costs of hiring additional police cannot be rejected

anticipated development assistance temporary relief aid and consumption behaviour of low income countries much debate about the effectiveness of foreign aid to developing countries focuses on the assumption that aid flows mainly enhance current consumption rather than being channelled into investment this paper seeks to establish what proportion of foreign assistance is used to finance current consumption the principal hypothesis to be tested is that aid transfers include very heterogeneous components with different marginal propensity to raise consumption estimating the average marginal propensity to consume of all the components of aid as is commonly done may lead to erroneous results the flow of foreign aid from high to low income countries can be classified into two types the first includes income transfers of a relief nature such as emergency and distress relief including drought related food transfers medical and refugee relief and balance of payments crisis support these transfers are generally a temporary response to unanticipated events or shocks to the economy they can be perceived as an attempt by the donor community to help finance what is denoted in the permanent income theory as transitory consumption friedman i957 in addition they can be viewed as an attempt to maintain a subsistence level of consumption by absorbing the shocks to income entirely by changes in savings the low level of savings however and the constraints on foreign borrowing lead to dependency on foreign transfers and prevent domestic savings from being the residual that is almost all of

guns laws and public shootings in the united states abstractsince the late 1990s there have been increasing numbers of public shootings carried out with firearms in the united states these tragedies continually renew the regulatory debate concerning public safety while considering civil liberties using a unique data set we investigate whether laws correspond to whether an event occurs and the effects of event specific characteristics on public shooting outcomes in particular we analyse how state specific gun laws the types of firearms the shooting venues and the mental health of the gunman impact the outcomes of public shootings results show that most gun laws are unrelated to whether an event occurs in addition common state and federal gun laws that outlaw assault weapons are unrelated to the likelihood of an assault weapon being used during a public shooting event moreover results show that the use of assault weapons is not related to more victims or fatalities than other types of guns however the use of hand guns shot guns and high capac

determinants of international trade flows the case of developing countries abstract the question of magnitude and the time path of the trade flows to changes in the exchange rates and to changes in the price level is of emitent practical importance to assess the above proposition a distributed lag structure is imposed on the relative prices and on the effective exchange rate as the determinants of trade flows then import and export demand functions are estimated for a sample of developing countries using the almon procedure the empirical findings appeared to sustain orcutt s early conjecture that trade flows adjust differently to different price stimuli more precisely it was found that imports and exports reactions were quicker and the total response time was shorter when an exchange rate rather than relative prices caused a change in international prices

reexamining criminal behavior the importance of omitted variable bias to what extent do changes in the expected penalty alter the willingness of individuals to engage in illegal activity becker 1968 developed a theoretical model of criminal behavior that asserted offenders respond to incentives in much the same way as those who engage in legal activities respond ehrlich 1973 pioneered empirical tests of the model and concluded that there was a strong positive correlation between income inequality and property crimes that the crime rate was positively related to relative gains and negatively related to the costs associated with criminal activity and that law enforcement activity had a deterrent effect for all crimes recently many papers have used arrest rates to mea

the tax evasion social multiplier evidence from italy we estimate social externalities of tax evasion in a model where congestion of the auditing resources of local tax authorities generates a social multiplier identification is based on a contrast of the variance of tax evasion at different levels of aggregation we use a unique data set that contains audits of about 80 000 small businesses and professionals in italy and also provides an exact measure of reference groups in our model we find a social multiplier of about 3 which means that the equilibrium response to a shock that induces an exogenous variation in mean concealed income is about 3 times the initial average response this is a short run effect that persists to the extent that auditing resources are not adjusted to internalize the congestion externality

business cycles in switzerland a comparative study abstract the goal of this paper is to provide an empirical description of business cycles in switzerland and a comparison with business cycles in other countries we adopt a view of business cycles as a set of regularities in the movements and the co movements of economic aggregates common to all decentralized economies lucas 1977 and test whether switzerland conforms to this view in order to identify the appropriate cyclical series we follow a procedure proposed by hodrick and prescott 1980 we then compute correlations of various types we test their stability through time and compare with corresponding estimates for the u s france germany and the u k

business cycles in the united kingdom facts and fictions this paper documents the statistical properties of contemporary business fluctuations in the united kingdom we study the period 1956 90 using quarterly detrended data on key aggregate variables we compute selected moments of the data compare our results with those for the united states and rigorously test for dynamic instabilities our findings confirm the existence of substantive cyclical regularities both across countries and across time some notable cross country differences are also identified conclusions about stability are shown to be potentially sensitive to the method of testing in general cross correlations are appreciably more stable than standard deviations

lost in the mail a field experiment on crime crime in the mail sector can hamper the development of elec tronic markets we use a field experiment to detect crime and measure its differential impacts we subtly and realistically manipulate the content and information available in mail sent to households and detect high levels of shirking and stealing eighteen percent of the mail never arrived at its des tination and even more was lost if there was even a slight hint of something additional inside the envelope our study demonstrates that privatization has been unable to extricate moral hazard and that crime is strategic and not equally distributed across the population

macro economic aspects of the effectiveness of foreign aid on the two gap model home goods disequilibrium and real exchange rate misalignment we construct an open economy disequilibrium model to assess the welfare effects of aid in different macroeconomic regimes aid is shown to have different effects in different unemployment regimes because it increases the social costs of wage price rigidities in the classical regime but decreases them in the keynesian unemployment regime a link is made with the two gap model but we highlight the role of real exchange rate misalignment failure to clear the nt goods market

examining the link between crime and unemployment a time series analysis for canada we use national and regional canadian data to analyse the relationship between economic activity as reflected by the unemployment rate and crime rates given potential aggregation bias we disaggregate the crime data and look at the relationship between six different types of crimes rates and unemployment rate we also disaggregate the data by region we employ an error correction model in our analysis to test for short run and long run dynamics we find no evidence of long run relationship between crime and unemployment when we look at both disaggregation by type of crime and disaggregation by region lack of evidence of a long run relationship indicates we have no evidence of the motivation hypothesis for selected types of property crimes we find some evidence of a significant negative short run relationship between crime and unemployment lending support to the opportunity hypothesis inclusion of control variables in the panel analysis does not alter the findings qualitatively or quantitatively

identifying the effect of unemployment on crime abstract in this paper we analyze the relationship between unemployment and crime using u s state data we estimate the effect of unemployment on the rates of seven felony offenses we control extensively for state level demographic and economic factors and estimate specifications that include state specific time trends state effects and year effects in addition we use prime defense contracts and a state specific measure of exposure to oil shocks as instruments for unemployment rates we find significantly positive effects of unemployment on property crime rates that are stable across model specifications our estimates suggest that a substantial portion of the decline in property crime rates during the 1990s is attributable to the decline in the unemployment rate the evidence for violent crime is considerably weaker however a closer analysis of the violent crime of rape yields some evidence that the employment prospects of males are weakly related to state rape rates

the effect of prison population size on crime rates evidence from prison overcrowding litigation simultaneity between prisoner populations and crime rates makes it difficult to isolate the causal effect of changes in prison populations on crime to break that simultaneity this paper uses prison overcrowding litigation in a state as an instrument for changes in the prison population the resulting elasticities are two to three times greater than those of previous studies a one prisoner reduction is associated with an increase of fifteen index i crimes per year while calculations of the costs of crime are inherently uncertain it appears that the social benefits associated with crime reduction equal or exceed the social costs of incarceration for the marginal prisoner

the empire is dead long live the empire long run persistence of trust and corruption in the bureaucracy we hypothesise that the habsburg empire with its well respected administration increased citizens trust in local public services in several eastern european countries communities on both sides of the long gone habsburg border have shared common formal institutions for a century now we use a border specification and a two dimensional geographic regression discontinuity design to identify from individuals living within a restricted band around the former border we find that historical habsburg affiliation increases current trust and reduces corruption in courts and police falsification tests of spuriously moved borders geographic and pre existing differences and interpersonal trust corroborate a genuine habsburg effect

aid the public sector and the market in less developed countries a reply the article in this journal by mosley et al i987 concludes its analysis of aid effectiveness as demonstrating inability of development aid over more than twenty years to provide a net increment to overall growth in the third world p 636 this note purports to show that this conclusion which is ostensibly distressing as the authors claim is not warranted the section of the study which is the basis of the conclusion cited and the subject of this note is a cross section regression analysis full details of which are shown in mosley et al table 3 the note is concerned with the relation between the dependent variable specified as the growth rate of real gdp per cent per annum hereafter gdp and aid specified as a percentage of gdp hereafter aid the aid results with only two significant positive coefficients in one subsample certainly give no basis for claiming aid effectiveness in terms of gdp growth the intention in this note is to interpret the results which are assumed to be valid this is made possible by the fact that the authors have helpfully provided the full input set of mean values derived from the raw data from this it is possible to calculate the gdp aid relationship for each country for the second and third period the procedure for deriving these relationships is as follows for each country the mean values of the time series of gdp and aid are extracted from the data for i 960 70 and for i 970 80 using i 960 70 as the base the signs of the change in the levels of the gdp and aid mean values between periods are recorded this is repeated for i980 4 with i970 80 mean values as the base the relationship between the two signs is an indication of the effect of aid on gdp in the period in which the change in levels is effected thus in the case of an increase in aid being combined with a decrease in gdp the latter must have fallen relatively to the former and aid effectiveness is negative mutatis mutandis for the other three sign combinations thus generating the appropriate gdp aid relationship for each country in each period a frequency distribution of the four sign combinations relating to the full sample is presented in table i since the signs of the changes in the levels of gdp and aid are derived by making explicit the arithmetic relationship implicit in the data they form a valid base from which to draw conclusions without requiring any test of

structural unemployment cyclical unemployment and income inequality this is the first study that decomposes unemployment into its structural and cyclical components and investigates their impact on income distribution controlling for the influence of inflation increases in structural unemployment have a substantial aggravating impact on income inequality inflation has a progressive impact which is due to the unexpected component the study demonstrates that previous work failed to take into account the stochastic trend behavior of the variables consequently specifications used by previous research cannot predict the behavior of income shares after 1983 whereas the specification used by this paper generates accurate forecasts the results also indicate that a sustained gnp growth is not necessarily associated with an improvement in income inequality because sustained gnp growth can coexist with increased structural unemployment

public enforcement of securities market rules resource based evidence from the securities and exchange commission we empirically investigate whether increases in the u s securities and exchange commission s sec budget have an effect on firms compliance behavior with securities market rules our study uses a dataset on the sec s resources and its enforcement actions over a period beginning shortly after the second world war and ending in 2010 we find that increases in the sec s resources both improve compliance and lead to an increased activity level of the sec the higher level of compliance is reflected by a decrease in the numbers of enforcement cases the increased activity level is reflected by a surge in the number of investigations conducted by the sec

local labor markets and criminal recidivism abstract this paper estimates the impact of local labor market conditions on criminal recidivism using administrative prison records on four million offenders released from 43 states between 2000 and 2013 exploiting the timing of each offender s release from prison i find that being released to a county with higher low skilled wages significantly decreases the risk of recidivism the impact of higher wages on recidivism is larger for both black offenders and first time offenders and in sectors that report being more willing to hire ex offenders these results are robust to individual and county level controls such as policing and corrections activity and do not appear to be driven by changes in the composition of released offenders during good or bad economic times

search for a theory of organized crimes abstract casual empirical observations reveal no systematic relationship between the overall crime rate and organized criminal activity we develop a search theoretic framework to study the interactions not only between formal labor and crime sectors but also between individual and organized crimes in equilibrium individual and organized criminals face different arrest risks success rates reward structures and outside options we characterize agents occupational choices the gang s hierarchical structure and the responses of unemployment crime rates and crime composition to changes in labor market conditions and crime deterrence policies we further assess the effectiveness of arrest versus punishment policies in deterring individual and organized crimes

four factors that explain both the rise and fall of us crime 1970 2003 previous research has failed to explain the rise and fall of us crime since 1970 this study uses cointegration error correction and common long memory components analyses to demonstrate that four basic crime factors explaining both the increases in us violent and property crime between 1970 and 1991 and the dramatic declines in crime after 1991 the four factors include arrest rates income per capita the proportion of criminal justice resources devoted to drug crime and alcohol consumption error correction models and common long memory factors show an especially close link between crime rates and the percentage of prison resources devoted to drug offenders similar factors result in cointegrated models for murder rape robbery assault and larceny additional modelling shows that effective abortion rates computed along the lines of donohue and levitt 2001 do not help in explaining the rise and fall of us crime

individual perceptions of the criminal justice system this paper empirically examines belief updating of the perceived probability of arrest and its criminal deterrence effects using two longitudinal data sources while beliefs about the probability of arrest are positively correlated with local official arrest rates they are unresponsive to information acquired from random individuals and local neighborhood conditions importantly perceptions respond to changes in an individual s criminal and arrest history young males who engage in crime without getting arrested revise their perceived probability of arrest downward while those who are arrested revise their probability upward estimates suggest that beliefs about the probability of arrest significantly deter crime jel k42

global dynamic inefficiency in the absence of international policy coordination a north south case abstract this paper demonstrates that decentralized behavior reflected in non coordinated resource pricing and investment strategies may lead to global dynamic inefficiency it is shown that in a north south world capital accumulation in the north reduces the social cost associated with the presence of labor market imperfections of the lewis type in the south whereas resource pricing in the south affects investment decisions in the north thus international policy coordination is required for attaining global dynamic efficiency

why foreign economic assistance there is general agreement in the economics literature that resource flows among countries in response to market incentives enhance global economic efficiency and welfare in both rich and poor countries it has also been argued that in the presence of capital market imperfections the transfer of resources from developed country governments to the governments of developing countries on commercial terms either directly or through multilateral agencies can normally be expected to be welfare enhancing in both developed and developing countries 1 these arguments do not apply however to official development assistance that involves a substantial grant element two arguments have typically been used in support of transfers that include a grant component one set is based on the economic and strategic self interest of the donor country the second is based on the ethical or moral responsibility of the residents of wealthy countries toward the residents of poor countries both sets of arguments have been the subject of continuous challenge i argue in this article that neither the donor self interest nor the ethical responsibility argument can be rejected on logical or theoretical grounds i also assert that the empirical evidence in support of both the economic and the strategic self interest arguments is exceedingly weak the ethical responsibility arguments impose less burden on the empirical evidence but they are subject to continuous challenge by political theorists and moral philosophers donor self interest

sociopolitical and economic dimensions of development a cross section model 1 of the most important requisites of development is to cultivate those conditions which are appropriate for the generation of a surplus the distribution of which in turn usually generates friction among the various social classes and factions that advance claims to it thus modernization being a process of change has economic social political and institutional dimensions and the changes can result in sociopolitical instability which affects the continuation of the ability of the economy to grow and of the society to develop the objective of this paper is to test for a feedback mechanism that links all the dimensions of modernization together and the introduction of variables that can reflect it in a model and to present some results of an econometric investigation that recognizes this interaction estimation for the model is based on a sample of 104 noncommunist countries for the year 1967 that includes economic and noneconomic variables the model is used to predict the values of the per capita income and gross capital formation both within and outside of the sample period its predictive ability is remarkable as the statistics represented in the tables and charts demonstrate the model is also used in a number of simulations reflecting a variety of social and political conditions and scenarios in this relation it is found for example that the social and political atmosphere has profound effects on the economic evolution of a society the sociopolitical gap defined as the difference between actual sociopolitical envirnoments characterized by various degrees of instability and the sociopolitically stable environment characterized by no sociopolitical violence retards the development process the presence and the magnitude of this gap as well as the various trade offs lead the author to a conclusion of guarded pessimism in relation to the choices and future of developing countries an appendix lists the types of political violence identified as variables

an empirical characterization of the dynamic effects of police spending on violent and property crime the study estimates the dynamic effects of shocks to police expenditures on measures of violent and property crime rates using annual u s state level data for the period 1960 2015 we employ a structural panel var model and achieve identification by imposing the restriction that police spending responds to structural shocks to crime with at least a lag of 1 year results indicate that a shock to police spending leads to a persistent and significant decreases in violent and property crime rates and b significant and persistent negative impacts on crime rates in periods of high crime but little impacts in periods of low crime variance decompositions show that shocks to police spending account for moderate to large proportions of the variability of u s state level crime rates our findings are robust across separate measures of violent and property crime rates as well as to the inclusion of additional variables to the baseline panel var model jel k42

market wages and youth crime to study the problem of widespread youth crime i analyze a timeallocation model in which consumers face parametric wages and diminishing marginal returns to crime the theory motivates an econometric model that i estimate using data from the national longitudinal survey of youth my estimates suggest that youth behavior is responsive to price incentives and that falling real wages may have been an important determinant of rising youth crime during the 1970s and 1980s moreover wage differentials explain a substantial component of both the racial differential in criminal participation and the age distribution of crime

are u s cities underpoliced theory and evidence we document the extent of measurement errors in the basic data set on police used in the literature on the effect of police on crime analyzing medium to large u s cities over 1960 to 2010 we obt

crime apprehension and clearance rates panel data evidence from canadian provinces the becker 1968 model of crime establishes the importance of the probability of apprehension as a key factor in a rational individual s decision to commit a crime in this respect most empirical studies based on us data have relied on variation in the number of police officers to estimate the impact of the probability of apprehension or capture we measure the probability of apprehension by clearance rates and study their effects on crime rates employing a panel of canadian provinces from 1986 to 2005 ols gmm gls and iv estimates yield statistically significant elasticities of clearance rates ranging from 0 2 to 0 4 for violent crimes and from 0 5 to 0 6 for property crimes these findings reflect the importance of police force crime solving productivity

carrots sticks and broken windows abstract this paper investigates the effect of economic conditions carrots and sanctions sticks on murder assault robbery burglary motor vehicle theft grand larceny and rape in new york city using monthly time series data spanning 1974 99 carrots are measured by the unemployment rate and the real minimum wage sticks are measured by the number of felony arrests size of the police force and number of new york city residents in prison in addition the paper tests the validity of the broken windows hypothesis consistent with its implementation by the new york police department we use misdemeanor arrests as a measure of broken windows policing the broken windows hypothesis has validity in the case of robbery motor vehicle theft and grand larceny while both economic and deterrence variables are important in explaining the decline in crime the contribution of deterrence measures is larger than those of economic variables

donor bias towards small countries an overlooked factor in the analysis of foreign aid and economic growth the consensus of the literature is that international cross sectional data do not reveal a stable relationship between foreign aid and economic growth a conclusion which weakens the case for giving aid however previous econometric analysis has not made allowance for the fact that larger countries grow faster but receive less aid in this paper it is demonstrated that when due allowance is made for the effects of country size a positive and significant relationship between aid and growth can be shown to exist

more cops less crime abstract i exploit a natural experiment to estimate the causal effect of police on crime the american recovery and reinvestment act increased funding for the community oriented policing services cops hiring grant program from less than 20 million over 2005 2008 to 1 billion in 2009 hiring grants distributed in 2009 were allocated according to an application score cutoff rule and i leverage quasi random variation in grant receipt by comparing the change over time in police and crimes for cities above and below the threshold in a difference in differences framework relative to low scoring cities those above the cutoff experience increases in police of about 3 2 and declines in victimization cost weighted crime of about 3 5 following the distribution of hiring grants the effects are driven by large and statistically significant effects of police on robbery larceny and auto theft with suggestive evidence that police reduce murders as well crime reductions associated with additional police were more pronounced in areas most affected by the great recession the results highlight that fiscal support to local governments for crime prevention may offer large returns especially during bad macroeconomic times

the impact of legalized abortion on crime we offer evidence that legalized abortion has contributed significantly to recent crime reductions crime began to fall roughly eighteen years after abortion legalization the five states that allowed abortion in 1970 experienced declines earlier than the rest of the nation which legalized in 1973 with roe v wade states with high abortion rates in the 1970s and 1980s experienced greater crime reductions in the 1990s in high abortion states only arrests of those born after abortion legalization fall relative to low abortion states legalized abortion appears to account for as much as 50 percent of the recent drop in crime

on the utilisation controversy a rejoinder and some comments the critique by gahn and gonzalez 2019 of the conclusions in nikiforos 2016 regarding what data should be used to evaluate whether capacity utilization is endogenous to demand is weak for the following reasons i the federal reserve board frb measure of utilization is not appropriate for measuring long run variations of utilization because of the method and purpose of its construction even if its difference from the measures of the average workweek of capital aww were trivial this would still be the case if anything it would show that the aww is also an inappropriate measure ii gahn and gonzalez choose to ignore the longest available estimate of the aww produced by foss which has a clear long run trend iii their econometric results are not robust to more suitable specifications of the unit root tests under these specifications the tests overwhelmingly fail to reject the unit root hypothesis iv other estimates of the aww which were not included in nikiforos 2016 confirm these conclusions v for the comparison between the aww series and the frb series they construct variables that are not meaningful because they subtract series in different units when the comparison is done correctly the results confirm that the difference between the aww series and the frb series has a unit root vi a stationary utilization rate is not consistent with any theory of the determination of capacity utilization even if demand did not play a role there is no reason to expect that all the other factors that determine utilization would change in a fashion that would keep utilization constant