bilateral trade and shocks in political relations evidence from china and some of its major trading partners 1990 2013 abstract an extensive number of studies investigate the effects of political relations on trade by estimating a gravity model using annual or quarterly data we argue that the use of low frequency data introduces an aggregation bias because the cycle of moderate political shocks is much shorter measured in weeks using monthly data from 1990 through 2013 for china we estimate a model of political relations and conclude that political shocks are short lived narrative evidence from two case studies illustrates the transitory nature of these shocks a var model shows that although political shocks influence exports to china the effects largely vanish within two months a comparison of the monthly and annual frequency gravity equation regressions illustrates the effects of temporal aggregation

generalized method of moments and inverse control abstract this paper presents a generalized method of moments algorithm for estimating the structural parameters of a macroeconomic model subject to the restriction that the coefficients of the monetary policy rule minimize the central bank s expected loss function the algorithm combines least squares normal equations with moment restrictions derived from the first order necessary conditions of the auxiliary optimization we assess the performance of the algorithm with monte carlo simulations using three increasingly complex models we find that imposing the optimizing restrictions when they are true improves estimation accuracy and that imposing those restrictions when they are false biases estimates of some of the structural parameters but not of the policy rule coefficients

conflict cooperation and commerce the effect of international political interactions on bilateral trade flows the public choice approach to political economy is employed to gain insight into the connection between international politics and trade flows a model is constructed in which importers are assumed to be rational utility maximizers who seek to satisfy international security as well as economic welfare objectives this model of bilateral trade flows reflects contemporary theory in the field of international economics and it explicitly incorporates the general foreign policy orientation of importers among its determinants the model is tested in 16 annual crosssectional estimations 1960 75 for a complete network of 25 countries the findings show considerable support for the hypothesis that trade flows are significantly influenced by broad political relations of amity and enmity between nations the author concludes that nations adjust trade ties to satisfy security as well as economic welfare goals and that a formal political economy of trade should reflect this fact

an integrated approach to climate change income distribution employment and economic growth a demand driven growth model involving capital accumulation and the dynamics of greenhouse gas ghg concentration is set up to examine macroeconomic issues raised by global warming e g effects on output and employment of rising levels of ghg offsets by mitigation relationships among energy use and labor productivity income distribution and growth the economic significance of the jevons and other paradoxes sustainable consumption and possible reductions in employment and sources of instability and cyclicality implicit in the two dimensional dynamical system the emphasis is on the combination of biophysical limits and post keynesian growth theory and the qualitative patterns of system adjustment and the dynamics that emerge

international competition income distribution and economic growth this paper shows that the neo keynesian case for wage led growth does not generally hold in an open economy model wage increases cause a loss of competitiveness that reduces the trade balance if the economy is relatively open to trade and price elasticities satisfy certain restrictions the worsening of the trade balance more than outweighs the increase in workers consumption thus reducing the growth rate the main theoretical innovation is a flexible markup pricing rule that allows changes in unit labor costs and exchange rates to affect profit margins implications for international relations and class conflict are discussed copyright 1989 by oxford university press

potential pitfalls for the purchasing power parity puzzle sampling and specification biases in mean reversion tests of the law of one price the ppp puzzle is based on empirical evidence that international price differences for individual goods loop or baskets of goods ppp appear highly persistent or even nonstationary the present consensus is these price differences have a half life that is of the order of five years at best and infinity at worst this seems unreasonable in a world where transportation and transaction costs appear so low as to encourage arbitrage and the convergence of price gaps over much shorter horizons typically days or weeks however current empirics rely on a particular choice of methodology involving i relatively low frequency monthly quarterly or annual data and ii a linear model specification in fact these methodological choices are not innocent and they can be shown to bias analysis towards findings of slow convergence and a random walk intuitively if we suspect that the actual adjustment horizon is of the order of days then monthly and annual data cannot be expected to reveal it if we suspect arbitrage costs are high enough to produce a substantial band of inaction then a linear model will fail to support convergence if the process spends considerable time random walking in that band thus when testing for ppp or loop model specification and data sampling should not proceed without consideration of the actual institutional context and logistical framework of markets

stagnation or transformation of a dual economy through endogenous productivity growth a growth model is developed for an open dual economy the economy expands owing to a higher growth rate of labour productivity in the modern sector through the kaldor verdoorn channel and higher effective demand through a keynesian channel the model incorporates a retardation mechanism affecting the slopes of productivity and output growth schedules as labour surplus and economies of scale diminish a wage led or profit led regime and initial conditions may give rise to de industrialization in terms of both output and employment a growth trap sustaining a situation of structural heterogeneity or sustainable employment and adequate output and productivity growth

revealed preference of the federal reserve using inverse control theory to interpret the policy equation of a vector autoregression how close is observed federal reserve policy to policy that would be optimal in the control theory sense the question is addressed by using an inverse control methodology federal reserve policy is characterized by a feedback equation for either changes in the interest rate or money stock optimal policy is characterized by solution of the ricatti equation parameters are estimated that characterize the relative importance to the federal reserve of stabilizing output inflation interest rates and money growth the period of study is 1947 through 1992 evidence is uncovered that policy is optimal within distinct regimes

finance saving and accumulation this paper analyzes the interaction between financial and real variables in different time frames and monetary regimes firms finance investment through retained earnings new issues or bank loans and households desired portfolio of financial assets is related to current income flows the average saving propensity becomes an endogenous variable determined jointly by household and firm decisions and it is shown that changes in the basic parameters give rise to both saving and valuation effects contrary to standard keynesian results an increase in a saving parameter may be expansionary if the valuation effect dominates the saving effect copyright 1988 by oxford university press

government debt income distribution and growth this paper takes up the question of whether government debt worsens the distribution of income as tax revenues from workers are used to pay for the interest on the debt held by the rich in so doing we develop a post keynesian model in which growth is determined by aggregate demand rather than by the supply of resources and income is distributed between workers who earn wages and capitalists who receive profit and interest income our analysis highlights the possible expansionary effect of a rise in government debt which may raise the income of the workers and it shows that its precise effect on income inequality depends on the circumstances under which government debt rises c 1996 academic press limited copyright 1996 by oxford university press

post keynesian stock flow consistent modelling a survey the aim of the paper is to provide an overview of the current stock ow consistent sfc literature indeed we feel the sfc approach has recently led to a blossoming literature requiring a new summary after the work of dos santos and above all after the publication of the main reference work on the methodology godley and lavoie s monetary economics an integrated approach to credit money income production and wealth the paper is developed along the following lines first a brief historical analysis investigates the roots of this class of models that can be traced as far back as 1949 and the work of copeland second the competing points of view regarding some of its main controversial aspects are underlined and used to classify the different methodological approaches followed in using these models namely we discuss i how the models are solved ii the treatment of time and its implication and ii the need or not for microfoundations these results are then used in the third section of the paper to develop a bifocal perspective which allows us to divide the literature reviewed according to both its subject and the methodology we explore various topics such as financialisation exchange rate modelling policy implication the need for a common framework within the post keynesian literature and the empirical use of sfc models finally the conclusions present some hypotheses and wishes for the possible lines of development of sfc models

the middle class in macroeconomics and growth theory a three class neo kaleckian goodwin model this paper presents a three class growth model with labor market conflict the classes are workers a middle management middle class and a top management capitalist class the model introduces personal income distribution that supplements conventional concerns with functional income distribution within such a model endogenously generated changes in personal income distribution can generate endogenous shifts from profit led to wage led regimes and vice versa a model of an economy with three classes enables us to consider richer patterns of class conflict because the middle class has shared interests and conflicts with both capitalists and workers changes that benefit the middle class do not necessarily increase growth or employment or benefit workers

long waves and short cycles in a model of endogenous financial fragility this paper presents a stock flow consistent macroeconomic model in which financial fragility in firm and household sectors evolves endogenously through the interaction between real and financial sectors changes in firms and households financial practices produce long waves the hopf bifurcation theorem is applied to clarify the conditions for the existence of limit cycles and simulations illustrate stable limit cycles the long waves are characterized by periodic economic crises following long expansions short cycles generated by the interaction between effective demand and labor market dynamics fluctuate around the long waves

some consequences of temporal aggregation in empirical analysis i derive the generating mechanism of a temporally aggregated process when the disaggregated one belongs to the vector autoregressive integrated moving average class i then study the effects of temporal aggregation on a set of characteristics of usual interest such as exogeneity causality cointegration and common features an empirical example with canadian interest rates illustrates the main issues

endogenous technical change with externalities in a classical growth model abstract a growth model with three inputs capital labor and land extends foley and michl s d foley t r michl s growth and distribution harvard university press cambridge ma 1999 classical accumulation model by adding a goodwin r goodwin a growth cycle in c h feinstein ed socialism capitalism and economic growth cambridge university press cambridge 1967 labor market and a model of endogenous technical change that can represent either dumenil and levy s metroeconomica 46 1995 213 j econ behav org this issue or kennedy s econ j 74 295 1964 541 models when land is priced there is a stable steady state growth path with desirable allocational properties when land is not priced no steady state exists and the growth path leads to a catastrophe these results hold when the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor is less than unity

stagnation income distribution and monopoly power the deceleration in the rate of industrial growth in the indian economy since the middlesixties initially interpreted by some as a temporary downward deviation from trend hasnow come to be generally accepted as reflecting long run tendencies towards stagnation several explanations for these tendencies have been offered bhagwati and desai 1970 and bhagwati and srinivasan 1975 have focused on inefficiencies and the misallocationof resources arising from industrial policies pursued by the government others chakravarty 1974 raj 1976 and vaidyanathan 1974 among them have emphasisedthe sluggishness of agricultural growth which is alleged to have retarded industrial growthby limiting markets and the supply of wage goods and raw materials a third view reflectedin srinivasan and narayana 1977 for example has put the blame on a slackening of invest ment demand due to lower public investment but does not explain why public investmentfell or why its fall restrained industrial growth finally there is the explanation put forthin bagchi 1970 1975 1982 in nayyar 1978 and in parts of mitra 1977 that inequali ties in income distribution have resulted in a limited demand for industrial goods reducedincentives for investment and therefore reduced growth this view seems to suggest apositive relation between growth and income equality which is opposed to the generallyaccepted idea derived from cambridge growth models that higher growth requires greaterinequality the purpose of this paper is to examine the last explanation by considering the inter action between growth and income distribution in an underdeveloped economy with thehelp of a simple macroeconomic model the model is a stylisation of the indian economy so that we will be able to use the model to assess the argument that a deceleration in therate of growth of the indian industrial economy could have been caused by an unequaldistribution of income the argument will not be made that this income distributional con straint is the binding constraint on industrial growth the model will merely examine theinternal consistency of the argument that a bad income distribution could explain stagnation in the sense of reduced growth and show that in the indian context as in other similarcontexts this argument can be put forward in explaining stagnation our argument is first presented with a highly simplified schematisation of the indianeconomy which we shall call the basic model the economy modelled produces only one

econometric policy evaluation and inverse control the traditional approach to monetary policy evaluation entails a first step in which structural parameters are estimated and a second in which the performance of alternative policy rules is studied this paper combines the two steps of the traditional approach into one by estimating a structural model subject to the restriction that the central bank chooses the policy rule that minimizes expected loss the structure is a forward looking new keynesian model in which equilibrium values of output and inflation depend on expectations of future values of those variables analysis of u s data between 1965 and 2001 support the hypotheses that the sample contains two policy regimes that the fed placed far greater weight on stabilizing inflation after 1980 and that improvements in policy were available in both regimes the unified approach also sharpens estimates of structural parameters

towards post keynesian ecological macroeconomics the paper starts with a brief criticism of macroeconomic analyses of different schools of thought for their focus on economic growth and maximisation of output this applies to the traditional keynesian approach which has focused on the achievement of sufficient aggregate demand to underpin full employment and full capacity utilisation down playing aggregate supply constraints this also applies to the neoclassical approach including the current new consensus macroeconomics approach which asserts the dominant role of aggregate supply in the long run and where growth is set by the so called natural rate of growth with no concerns over environmental and ecological issues the paper then proposes a different approach to macroeconomic analysis it explicitly acknowledges that economic growth is a double edged sword growth can help to alleviate persistent levels of high unemployment but it can also lead to potentially catastrophic environmental problems building on the monetary circuit theory and the demand led growth theory the paper offers an analysis of the interconnections and interdependence of the economic biophysical and social worlds and by doing it hopes to provide the building blocks for the establishment of post keynesian ecological macroeconomics

growth and income distribution with the dynamics of power in labour and goods markets the interaction between economic growth and income distribution is examined using kaleckian post keynesian models in which there are lags in investment and in which the dynamics of income distribution between wages and profits depends on changes in power relations in both the labour market and goods market by examining these two influences on distributional dynamics simultaneously the relative strength of which can change over the growth process it is shown that the growth distributional dynamics can involve non linearities multiple equilibria and instability the implications of policy induced changes including those in macroeconomic policy and labour market and antitrust policies on aggregate demand and distribution are examined for both wage led and profit led growth regimes copyright oxford university press

a synthetic stock flow consistent macroeconomic model of financialisation this article is centred around the notions of shareholder value orientation and financialisation shareholder value orientation is reflected by a high dividend payout ratio applied by firms and the reluctance of firms to finance physical investment via new equity issues financialisation is the more general development towards an increased importance of the financial sector of the economy relative to the non financial sector in this article a synthetic stock flow consistent model is developed that attempts to encompass some important recent works on the effects of financialisation this includes contributions from the fields of mainstream information economics and post keynesian economics we conduct simulations reflecting increased shareholder value orientation and show that the results are consistent with important stylised facts copyright the author 2008 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

economic policy uncertainty and dollar pound exchange rate return volatility abstract the extent to which economic policy uncertainty epu amplifies exchange rate volatility has been an important research question for at least a decade previous research has investigated this relationship using monthly data concluding that epu imparts an effect on exchange rate volatility either contemporaneously or with a one month lag the use of monthly frequency however may not provide an accurate causal interpretation and may even compromise the accuracy of the estimates if the natural cycles of epu are shorter than a month to address this econometric concern i construct uncertainty measures at a daily frequency and estimate a garch model using daily usd british pound returns the evidence indicates that epu contributes to exchange rate volatility much more quickly than monthly data can detect using a regression technique for separating epu from non policy economic uncertainty i find that non policy market uncertainty increases volatility more than epu does

solution and estimation of re macromodels with optimal policy macro models of monetary policy typically involve forward looking behavior except in rare circumstances we have to apply some numerical method to find the optimal policy and the rational expectations equilibrium this paper summarizes a few useful methods and shows how they can be combined with a kalman filter to estimate the deep model parameters with maximum likelihood simulations of a macro model with staggered price setting interest rate elastic output and optimal monetary policy illustrate the properties of this estimation approach

using daily range data to calibrate volatility diffusions and extract the forward integrated variance a common model for security price dynamics is the continuous time stochastic volatility model for this model hull and white 1987 show that the price of a derivative claim is the conditional expectation of the black scholes price with the forward integrated variance replacing the black scholes variance implementing the hull and white characteriza tion requires both estimates of the price dynamics and the conditional distribution of the forward integrated variance given observed variables using daily data on close to close price movement and the daily range we find that standard models do not fit the data very well and that a more general three factor model does better as it mimics the long memory feature of financial volatility we develop techniques for estimating the conditional distribution of the forward integrated variance given observed variables i introduction

inflation output variance trade offs and optimal monetary policy the author estimates the inflation output gap variance trade off faced by monetary policymakers in the united states for policymakers who care about deviations of inflation around target and output around potential the estimated trade off represents the optimal policy frontier given the structure of the economy policymakers can do no better than to attain weighted variances of inflation and output that lie on the frontier the author finds that the variance trade off becomes quite severe when the standard deviation of inflation or output drops much below 2 percent this suggests that approximately balanced responses to policy goals are consistent with reasonable preferences over inflation and output variability copyright 1997 by ohio state university press

the political determinants of international trade the major powers 1907 1990 we test three arguments about the effect of international politics on trade flows the first argument states that trade flows are greater between states with similar interests than those with dissimilar interests the second that trade flows are greater in democratic dyads than nondemocratic dyads and the third that trade flows are greater between allies we examine trade flows between the major powers from 1907 to 1990 this period provides variation on all three independent variables of interest and allows us to separate the three arguments empirically we estimate a gravity model of trade with the above political variables added our results demonstrate that joint democracy and common interests increase trade in a dyad but alliances generally do not even when controlling for polarity of the system

paying a visit the dalai lama effect on international trade is political compliance a precondition for healthy trade relations with china the chinese government frequently threatens that meetings between its trading partners officials and the dalai lama will be met with animosity and ultimately harm trade ties with china we run a gravity model of exports to china from 159 partner countries between 1991 and 2008 to test the extent to which bilateral tensions affect trade with autocratic china in particular we investigate empirically whether countries that receive the dalai lama despite china s opposition experience a significant reduction of their exports to china in order to account for the potential endogeneity of meetings with the dalai lama the number of tibet support groups and the travel pattern of the tibetan leader are used as instruments our empirical results support the idea that countries officially receiving the dalai lama at the highest political level are punished through a reduction of their exports to china however this dalai lama effect is only observed for the hu jintao era and not for earlier periods furthermore we find that this effect is mainly driven by reduced exports of machinery and transport equipment and that it disappears two years after a meeting took place

technology and distribution historical trajectories a la marx abstract in capital marx introduces a system of historical tendencies accounting for the trends of the major technological and distributional variables notably the profit rate quite distinct from the usual steady states marx s main insight is that of a difficulty to innovate it is difficult to find new processes allowing for the growth of labor productivity while not considerably reducing the productivity of capital the growth of the wage rate is stimulated by the rise of employment but the stabilization of the share of wages forbids a direct imputation of the decline of the profit rate to the excessive growth of the wage rate

a neo kaleckian goodwin model of capitalist economic growth monopoly power managerial pay and labour market conflict this paper presents a neo kaleckian goodwin model of growth and distribution the key innovation is the introduction of managerial pay kaleckian monopoly power determines the functional distribution of income and goodwin labour bargaining power determines the wage bill division the model helps explain slower us growth over the past 30 years for much of that period the functional distribution of income was relatively constant but growth slowed because income inequality increased owing to a wage bill shift from workers to managers the wage bill division effect explains why economies can display wage led and profit led characteristics economies can be profit led regarding functional income distribution and wage led regarding wage bill distribution

once an enemy forever an enemy the long run impact of the japanese invasion of china from 1937 to 1945 on trade and investment abstract in this study we exploit one of the most important conflicts of the 20th century between what are currently the world s second and third largest economies that is the japanese invasion of china from 1937 to 1945 to investigate the long term impact of conflicts between countries on cross border trade and investment we find that japanese multinationals are less likely to invest in chinese regions that suffered greater civilian casualties during the japanese invasion and these regions also trade less with japan our study shows that historical animosity still influences international trade and investment despite the trend toward an increasingly globalized world

macroeconomic implications of financialisation a growing literature suggests that financialisation may weaken the performance of non financial corporations and constrain the growth of aggregate demand this paper uses two alternative approaches one derived from skott and one from lavoie and godley and two different settings a labour constrained setting and a dual economy setting to evaluate some of the claims that have been made our analysis which pays explicit attention to financial stock flow relations suggests that the qualitative effects of financialisation are insensitive to the precise specification of household saving behaviour but depend critically on the labour market assumptions labour constrained versus dual and the specification of the investment function harrodian versus kaleckian

inflation targeting some extensions previous analyses of the implementation of inflation targeting are extended to monetary policy responses to different shocks consequences of model uncertainty and effects of interest rate smoothing and stabilization model uncertainty output stabilization and interest rate stabilization or smoothing all call for a more gradual adjustment of the conditional inflation forecast toward the inflation target the conditional inflation forecast is the natural intermediate target during inflation targeting the optimal way of reacting to shocks is hence to check how they affect the inflation forecast and then take the appropriate action jel classification e42 e52 e58

the kaleckian model of growth and distribution and its neo ricardian and neo marxian critiques this paper analyzes the newer kaleckian models of growth and distribution and the criticisms that have been addressed to them by neo marxian and neo ricardian authors the models discussed assume overhead labor costs and target return pricing the main issues are the form of the investment function and the notions of normal rates of profit and of normal rates of capacity utilization despite the relevance of and often the similarity between the neo marxian and neo ricardian critiques it is shown that the main features of the kaleckian growth model may still be preserved c 1995 academic press limited copyright 1995 by oxford university press

land technical progress and the falling rate of profit abstract the paper sets out a one sector growth model with a neoclassical production function in land and a capital labour aggregate if the elasticity of substitution between land and the capital labour aggregate is less than one and if the rate of capital augmenting technical progress is strictly positive then the rate of profit will fall to zero this result holds regardless of the rate of land augmenting technical progress no amount of technical advance in agriculture can stop the fall in the rate of profit the paper also discusses the relation of this result to the classical and marxist literature

inferring monetary policy objectives with a partially observed state accounting for the uncertainty inherent in real time perceptions of the state of the economy is believed to be critical for the analysis of historical monetary policy we investigate this claim through the lens of a small scale new keynesian model with optimal discretionary policy and partial information about the state the model is estimated using maximum likelihood on us data over the volcker greenspan bernanke regime a comparison of our estimates to those from a version of the model with complete information reveals that under partial information i the federal reserve demonstrates a significant concern for stabilizing fluctuations in the output gap and ii the discrepancy between optimal and observed policy behavior is smaller

temporal aggregation of univariate and multivariate time series models a survey abstract we present a unified and up to date overview of temporal aggregation techniques for univariate and multivariate time series models explaining in detail although intuitively the technical machinery behind the results some empirical applications illustrate the main issues

tackling the instability of growth a kaleckian harrodian model with an autonomous expenditure component this article presents a basic kaleckian model enriched by the simultaneous addition of an harrodian investment function and an autonomous expenditure component that grows at an exogenous rate the model shows that the usual short run properties wage led growth are only transient since the long run growth rate converges towards that of autonomous expenditures however the impact on the level of variables output capital stock labour etc is permanent the model also provides a conditional solution to the second harrod knife edge problem the destabilising behaviour of firms as they adjust their investment decisions to the discrepancy between the actual and the normal rates of capacity utilisation is now required to achieve the normal rate of capacity utilisation

monetary policy trade offs and the correlation between nominal interest rates and real output the authors present a structural model of the u s economy that combines their price contracting specification with a term structure relationship an aggregate demand curve and a monetary policy reaction function the model matches important features of postwar data well and provides a structural explanation of the correlation between real output and the short term nominal rate of interest the authors perform a battery of monetary policy experiments that show that as viewed through the lens of this model monetary policy has struck a good balance recently among competing monetary policy objectives copyright 1995 by american economic association

does trade still follow the flag t he economic ties between any two nations are frequently affected by a warming or cooling of bilateral diplomatic relations but there is little to be found in modern economics or political science that helps us understand the connections between international politics and commerce the notion that international economics could be studied in isolation from its political underpinnings or consequences would have been quite alien to mercantilist thinkers in the eighteenth century or to the critics or advocates of imperialism in the nineteenth that economics and politics were inextricably intertwined was taken as a matter of course indeed trade follows the flag was central to these people s understanding of world politics and international economics intellectual trends over the past century radically changed this worldview the ascendancy of liberalism in economic thought brought with it a compartmentalization of disciplines that may now be eroding but we are left with theories of international politics and economics that are very weakly bridged the objective of this study is to map one of the many connections between international politics and commercial ties specifically i seek to identify and measure the effect of changes in state to state diplomatic relations on trade flows between those nations theoretical underpinnings of my effort are in the tradition of public choice political economy frey 1984 because i treat importers as rational utility maximizers and their behavior as determined by preferences pursued within a context of specified constraints the model i put forward is wholly consistent with contemporary neoclassical trade theory but i extend the economists notion of welfare and contend that importers take account not only of the price and quantity of goods and services but of the place of origin of these products and the political relationship between the importing and the exporting nation they do so essentially for traditional security reasons that is importers are motivated to manage their trade relations in ways that minimize risks of disruption in supply or the possibility of hurting friends or

collateral damage trade disruption and the economic impact of war abstract conventional wisdom in economic history suggests that conflict between countries can be enormously disruptive of economic activity especially international trade we study the effects of war on bilateral trade with available data extending back to 1870 using the gravity model we estimate the contemporaneous and lagged effects of wars on the trade of belligerent nations and neutrals controlling for other determinants of trade as well as the possible effects of reverse causality we find large and persistent impacts of wars on trade national income and global economic welfare we also conduct a general equilibrium comparative statics exercise that indicates costs associated with lost trade might be at least as large as the conventionally measured direct costs of war such as lost human capital as illustrated by case studies of world wars i and ii

make trade not war this paper analyses theoretically and empirically the relationship between military conflicts and trade we show that the conventional wisdom that trade promotes peace is only partially true even in a model where trade is economically beneficial military conflicts reduce trade and leaders are rational when war can occur because of the presence of asymmetric information the probability of escalation is lower for countries that trade more bilaterally because of the opportunity cost associated with the loss of trade gains however countries more open to global trade have a higher probability of war because multilateral trade openness decreases bilateral dependence to any given country and the cost of a bilateral conflict we test our predictions on a large data set of military conflicts on the 1950 2000 period using different strategies to solve the endogeneity issues including instrumental variables we find robust evidence for the contrasting effects of bilateral and multilateral trade openness for proximate countries we find that trade has had a surprisingly large effect on their probability of military conflict

unemployment and the real wage the economic basis for contesting political ideologies using the keynesian theory of effective demand this paper demonstrates how particular models such as that of cooperative capitalism enunciated by the left keynesian social democrats the marxian model of profit squeeze emphasizing distributive conflict and even the conservative model relying on supply side stimulus fit in as particular variants of a more general theoretical scheme through a reconstruction of the familiar is schedule the argument is weaved around the theme of the relations between unemployment and real wage in the context of both a closed and an open economy to explain the common macroeconomic basis of contesting ideologies copyright 1990 by oxford university press

a structural economic dynamics approach to balance of payments constrained growth this paper derives a balance of payments equilibrium growth rate analogous to thirlwall s law from a pasinettian multi sector macrodynamic framework the resulting formula which we call the multi sectoral thirlwall s law asserts that a country s growth rate of per capita income is directly proportional to the growth rate of its exports with such a proportionality being inversely directly related to sectoral income elasticities of demand for imports exports these income elasticities are weighted by coefficients that measure the share of each sector in total imports and exports respectively it is shown that several theoretical empirical and policy implications can be drawn from such a structural economic dynamics approach to balance of payments constrained growth

financialisation and the slowdown of accumulation over the past decades financial investment of non financial businesses has been rising and accumulation of capital goods has been declining the first part of the paper offers a novel theory to explain this phenomenon financialization the shareholder revolution and the development of a market for corporate control have shifted power to shareholders and thus changed management priorities leading to a reduction in the desired growth rate in the second part the link between accumulation and financialization is tested econometrically by means of a time series analysis of aggregate business investment for usa uk france and germany extensive test of robustness are performed for the first three countries evidence that confirms the negative effect of financialization on accumulation is found author s abstract

sectoral balance in development a survey abstract this paper surveys the literature on sectoral balance to see how sectoral imbalances can retard economic development it examines definitions of sectors and balance provides background facts theories and planning tools reviews the debate on balanced growth and surveys two sector models of agriculture industry consumption investment and luxury basics interaction the open economy and the role of service nonmarket and unproductive sectors it argues that the examination of important development issues requires multisectoral analysis incorporating the insights of several of these models and that alternative models with different structural characteristics deserve attention

what is wrong with taylor rules using judgment in monetary policy through targeting rules it is argued that inflation targeting is best understood as a commitment to a targeting rule rather than an instrument rule e ither ageneral targeting rule explicit objectives for monetary policy or a specific targeting rule a criterion for the forecasts of the target variables to be fulfilled essentially the equality of the marginal rates of transformation and substitution between the target variables targeting rules allow the use of judgment and extramodel information are more robust and easier to verify than optimal instrument rules and they can nevertheless bring the economy close to the socially optimal equilibrium

realization and accumulation in a marxian model of the circuit of capital abstract a mathematical model of marx s circuit of capital is presented whose elements the composition of capital the rate of surplus value the rate of capitalization of surplus value and production sales and financial time lags are measurable from the accounts of capitalist firms the model is solved for exponential paths a solution with a positive rate of accumulation generally exists on paths with positive rates of accumulation and positive time lags in the recommital of realized value to production an expansion of credit is required to permit the sale of commodities a model of demand pull inflation is incorporated in the framework

endogenous economic growth a new approach this new approach incorporates on the demand side the problem of effective demand and unemployment while rejecting on the supply side the oversimplistic use of a production function with or without capital labour substitution the focus on the adoption and diffusion of labour productivity growth permits viewing supply as being driven endogenously by inter class conflict over distribution as well as inter class conflict among rival firms over market shares the result is a race between growth rates in labour productivity and in the real wage rate which drives demand and productivity growth on the one hand while making wage share reasonably constant on the other the existence and stability properties of the steady state are also examined copyright 2006 oxford university press

business as usual economic responses to political tensions do political tensions harm economic relations theories claim that trade prevents war and political relations motivate trade but less is known about whether smaller shifts in political relations impact economic exchange looking at two major economies we show that negative events have not hurt u s or japanese trade or investment flows we then examine specific incidents of tensions in u s french and sino japanese relations over the past decade two case pairs that allow us to compare varying levels of political tension given high existing economic interdependence and different alliance relations aggregate economic flows and high salience sectors like wine and autos are unaffected by the deterioration of political relations in an era of globalization actors lack incentives to link political and economic relations we argue that sunk costs in existing trade and investment make governments firms and consumers unlikely to change their behavior in response to political disputes d o political tensions have economic consequences the relationship between economic interdependence and conflict has been a central debate in international relations leading scholars contend that states with good relations should have more trade than states with poor relations and import decisions of firms will respond to the climate of friendliness orhostilitythatexistsbetweentheimporterandexporter morrow siverson and tabares 1998 650 pollins 1989b 739 analysis of trade and conflict in a simultaneous equations model concludes that political relations are driving commerce not the other way around keshk pollins and reuveny 2004 1175 we reexamine these arguments in the current globalization era to show that sunk costs reduce incentives for state and private actors to link political and economic relations 1

does political conflict hurt trade evidence from consumer boycotts i estimate the impact of international conflict on bilateral trade relations using several incidents of politically motivated boycotts the boycott of danish goods by muslim countries following the muhammad comic crisis in 2005 2006 the chinese boycott of japanese goods in response to the senkaku diaoyu island conflict in 2012 the boycott of french products in the us over the iraq war in 2003 and turkey s boycott of israel over the gaza conflict in 2014 the results from difference in differences regressions and the synthetic control group method show that boycotts can have strong negative effects on bilateral trade in both goods and services i estimate an average one year trade disruption of 18 8 in the case of denmark 2 7 for japan and 1 7 for french imports where in the latter two cases this effect is only short term for all boycott instances this is only a minor share of overall exports of the boycotted country over the same period for the iraq and gaza conflicts there is a reciprocal negative effect on the boycotted countries imports from the boycotter product level results are in line with intuition boycotts are most effective for consumer goods especially highly branded signature export goods such as japanese cars while having at most a temporary effect on intermediates and capital goods an event study on japanese stock market returns suggests that the chinese boycott depressed stock values of explicitly boycotted japanese firms only temporarily

monetary policy in the united states under flexible exchange rates this paper estimates and evaluates monetary policy rules within the context of a structural open economy macroeconomic model of the united states under flexible exchange rates the major result is that a monetary policy rule which stabilizes the rate of growth of nominal gnp receives considerable empirical support the rule provides a better fit than a number of alternatives including strict inflation stability strict output stability and real exchange rate stabilization copyright 1989 by american economic association

international politics and import diversification abstractthis paper examines how international politics affects trade in the absence of empires or wars we first show that deterioration of relations between the united states and another country measured by divergence in their united nations general assembly voting patterns reduced u s imports from that country during 1962 2000 though statistically significant the magnitude of the effect of political distance on trade is small indeed we show that except for petroleum and some chemical products u s imports are not affected by international politics american firms however diversify their oil imports significantly away from political opponents of the united states oil trade is often associated with backward vertical foreign direct investment that is subject to the expropriation risk in contrast to the usual claim that oil is a strategic commodity we provide suggestive evidence that trade in products when rents are appropriable is more likely to be affected by international politics

macroeconomic stability and the preferences of the fed a formal analysis 1961 98 the rate of inflation in the u s has declined from an average of 4 5 in the period 1960 79 to an average of 3 6 in 1980 98 between those two periods the standard deviations of inflation and the output gap have also declined these facts can be attributed to the interaction of three possible factors a shift in central bank preferences a reduction in the variability of aggregate supply shocks and a more efficient conduct of monetary policy in this paper we identify the relative roles of these factors our framework is based on the estimation of a small structural macro model for the u s economy jointly with the first order conditions which solve the intertemporal optimization problem faced by the fed overall our results indicate that the policy preferences of the fed and in particular the implicit inflation target have changed drastically with the advent of the volcker greenspan era in addition we find that the variance of supply shocks has been lower and monetary policy has been conducted more efficiently during this period

trade accumulation and uneven development abstract this paper develops a two country model of capital accumulation and growth where the industrial sector exhibits increasing returns to scale it shows that uneven development is a necessary outcome in such a model an initial discrepancy in capital labor ratios between the two countries will cumulate over time leading to the division of the world into a capital rich industrial region and capital poor agricultural region which region takes on which role depends on primative accumulation that is on which region starts with more capital if capital is mobile internationally the model can given rise to a two stage pattern of development a first stage where trade is the engine of growth in the leading country and a second in which foreign investment takes on that role which is reminiscent of the hobson lenin theory of imperialism