an empirical model of job to job transition with self selectivity the statistical relationship between accepted job duration and the job to job transition strategy chosen by job quitters is analyzed using parametric duration methods because job quitters can sort themselves between unemployed and employed search the labor market state occupied before acceptance of a new job must contain information about the search preferred strategy the results show that jobs preceded by unemployment tend to be shorter but also reveal a substantial amount of heterogeneity when the sample is split between those having comparative advantages in unemployed search and those with comparative advantages in employed search however even for those who have comparative advantages in unemployed search choosing unemployment does not seem to raise subsequent job duration

a mixed oligopoly in the presence of foreign private firms in this paper a mixed oligopoly model is considered in which a state owned public firm competes with both domestic and foreign private firms previous articles on mixed oligopoly did not include foreign private firms the effect on the equilibrium involves a lower price and a different allocation of production relative to the case when all private firms are domestically owned in addition issues such as the effects of an open door policy allowing foreign firms to enter and the effects of foreign acquisition of domestic firms are discussed

migration age and earnings the special case of employee transfers the regional relocation of workers within firms is examined this aspect of migration has received little attention in spite of the routine occurance of employee transfers the existence of such transfers suggests that a portion of each worker s human capital is employer specific and readily transferrable across locations thus a different age profile for transfers than that for conventional migrants may be expected specially a model of employee relocation and the consequences of relocation on post transfer earnings is examined

extended benefits and the duration of ui spells evidence from the new jersey extended benefit program abstract this paper examines the impact on the duration of unemployment insurance receipt of a politically motivated program that offered 13 weeks of extended benefits for 6 months in 1996 using state level data and individual administrative records from before during and after the program we find that it raised the fraction of claimants who exhausted their regular benefits by 1 3 percentage points had the program run long enough to affect claimants from the first day of their spell the fraction exhausting would have risen by 7 percentage points and the average recipient would have collected regular benefits for one extra week

from physical to human capital accumulation inequality and the process of development this paper develops a growth theory that captures the replacement of physical capital accumulation by human capital accumulation as a prime engine of growth along the process of development it argues that the positive impact of inequality on the growth process was reversed in this process in early stages of the industrial revolution when physical capital accumulation was the prime source of growth inequality stimulated development by channelling resources towards individuals with a higher propensity to save as human capital emerged as a growth engine equality alleviated adverse effects of credit constraints on human capital accumulation stimulating the growth process this research develops a growth theory that captures the endogenous replacement of physical capital accumulation by human capital accumulation as a prime engine of economic growth in the transition from the industrial revolution to modern growth the proposed theory offers a unified account for the effect of income inequality on the growth process during this transition it argues that the replacement of physical capital accumulation by human capital accumulation as a prime engine of economic growth changed the qualitative impact of inequality on the process of development in the early stages of the industrial revolution when physical capital accumulation was the prime source of economic growth inequality enhanced the process of development by channelling resources towards individuals whose marginal propensity to save is higher in the later stages of the transition to modern growth as human capital emerged as a prime engine of economic growth equality alleviated the adverse effect of credit constraints on human capital accumulation and stimulated the growth process the proposed theory unifies two fundamental approaches regarding the effect of income distribution on the process of development the classical approach and the credit market imperfection approach 1 the classical approach was originated by smith 1776 and was further interpreted and developed by keynes 1920 lewis 1954 kaldor 1957 and bourguignon 1981 according to this approach saving rates are an increasing function of wealth and inequality therefore channels resources towards individuals whose marginal propensity to save 1 the socio political economy approach provides an alternative mechanism equality diminishes the tendency for socio political instability or distortionary redistribution and hence it stimulates investment and economic growth see the comprehensive survey of benabou 1996b

growth income inequality and fiscal policy what are the relevant trade offs we develop an endogenous growth model with elastic labor supply in which agents differ in their initial endowments of physical capital in this context the growth rate and the distribution of income are jointly determined we then examine the distributional impact of different ways of financing an investment subsidy policies aimed at increasing the growth rate result in a more unequal distribution of pre tax income consistent with the positive correlation between income inequality and growth observed in the recent empirical literature however there is no conflict between efficiency and equity if inequality is measured in terms of the distribution of welfare

the carnegie conjecture some empirical evidence this paper examines tax return generated data on the labor force behavior of people before and after they receive inheritances the results are consistent with andrew carnegie s century old assertion that large inheritances decrease a person s labor force participation for example a single person who receives an inheritance of about 150 000 is roughly four times more likely to leave the labor force than a person with an inheritance below 25 000 additional albeit weaker evidence suggests that large inheritances depress labor supply even when participation is unaltered warren kendall heir to an insurance company fortune says he s worth about 5 million and has an income of about oh 300 and some thousand a year h e has never held a job or wanted to going down to sea in cruise ships is his full time pursuit he estimates that he has taken about 250 cruises over the past couple of decades spending at least 50 percent to 70 percent of the year afloat morgenthaler 1991 p al

the effects of changes of the job offer arrival rate on the duration of unemployment generally it is acknowledged that changing the job offer arrival rate has two opposite effects on unemployment duration for a basic job search model sufficient conditions on the wage offer distribution have been derived ensuring that one of the effects dominates however these are not satisfied for the popular families of wage offer distributions here i show that the conditions can be weakened at virtually no cost the set of distributions satisfying the new conditions is considerably larger than the set previously established in particular it includes all wage offer distribution families that are popular in structural empirical research

do state trading exporters distort trade abstract in this paper we analyse the trade distorting effects of state trading enterprises stes which exist in some exporting countries because of these potential effects several countries have raised the issue of state enterprises in the doha round negotiations in the wto the belief is that stes in certain developed countries have trade effects which are equivalent to an export subsidy stes also exist in developing countries though since the aim of government policy may differ from the developed country case the trade distortion may be equivalent to an export tax we present a theoretical model that is sufficiently general to allow us to consider the case of exporting stes in developed and developing economies the model is calibrated with data on two examples of stes one typical of an ste in a developed country the other typical of an ste in a developing economy in each case we allow for differences in the nature of the ste s pay off function the overall conclusion is that stes do distort trade and the trade distortion effect is potentially significant

investment tax credit in an open economy abstract this paper contrasts the effects of a permanent and temporary investment tax credit itc in an open economy in both cases an itc will initially stimulate investment while reducing employment and output and generating a current account deficit if the itc is permanent the accumulation of capital leads to a higher equilibrium capital stock higher employment and output and a reduction in the economy s stock of net credit if the itc is temporary after its removal the economy eventually moves to a new steady state equilibrium having a lower permanent capital stock and employment together with a higher stock of net credit

is there a threat effect of labour market programmes a study of almp in the danish ui system this article focuses on unemployed individuals reaction to compulsory labour market programmes prior to participation in denmark after having received ui benefits for a given period of time continued benefits are made conditional on participation in a labour market programme i estimate individuals reaction to compulsory programmes using legislative changes in the duration of benefits period as identification i find that compulsory programmes do indeed motivate individuals to find employment prior to participation the effect is large and is even comparable in size to the effect of benefits exhaustion found in studies of american ui systems

economic growth and inequality the role of public investment the relationship between growth and inequality is complex after discussing some general background issues motivated by extensive empirical evidence this paper focuses on public investment as a key determinant of the relationship two alternative frameworks each offering sharply contrasting perspectives are presented the first employs the representative consumer theory of distribution where agent heterogeneity originates with wealth endowments it yields an equilibrium in which aggregate dynamics drives distributional dynamics in the second agent heterogeneity arises from idiosyncratic productivity shocks and generates an equilibrium in which distributional dynamics drive growth the impact of government investment on growth and inequality are shown to contrast sharply in the two approaches thus illustrating the complexity of the growth inequality relationship

measuring the degree of market power exerted by government trade agencies the principle of profit maximization is used to derive an equilibrium condition for noncompetitive markets and to provide explicit parametric tests for market power exerted in both domestic and foreign markets by a government trade agency our study goes beyond previous work by considering simultaneous exertion of market power in both domestic and foreign markets and by jointly estimating market power parameters with cost and demand parameters these innovations allow nested tests of market power as opposed to prevailing nonnested tests based on simulation models or conditional tests based on prior estimates of demand and cost parameters japan is found to exert a high degree of monopsony power in the world wheat market and no monopoly power in the domestic market

unemployment insurance and male unemployment duration in canada a model of unemployment duration is estimated with weekly micro data on canadian men entitlement provisions in the unemployment insurance program and demand conditions are found to have a significant effect on the probability of leaving unemployment the probability of a worker leaving unemployment declines with the duration of unemployment holding unemployment insurance entitlement constant when entitlement is allowed to vary the probability of leaving first falls and then generally rises with unemployment duration these results are robust with respect to allowing for person specific unobserved heterogeneity and alternative specifications of duration dependence

the impact of the potential duration of unemployment benefits on the duration of unemployment abstract this paper examines the impact of the potential duration of unemployment insurance ui benefits on unemployment in the united states first we use a large sample of household heads to examine differences in the unemployment spell distributions of ui recipients and nonrecipients sharp increases in the escape rate from unemployment both through recalls and new job acceptances are apparent for ui recipients around the time of benefits exhaustion such increases are not apparent at similar points of spell duration for nonrecipients second our analysis of accurate administrative data from 12 states indicates that a one week increase in potential benefit duration increases the average duration of the unemployment spells of ui recipients by 0 16 to 0 20 weeks

a bivariate duration model for job mobility of two earner households abstract in recent years we have observed an increasing interest in the job mobility patterns of employed persons a new issue in this context is the mutual dependence of job mobility choice of workers who belong to the same household in the present paper we focus on bivariate duration models of stock sampled data in which dependence is induced through mixing we apply the estimation method on the basis of an empirical study on the mutual dependence of job mobility of workers belonging to a two earner household in the netherlands an interesting empirical result is that the marginal willingness to pay for a reduction in commuting time in a two wage earner household is higher than that usually found for single earner workers

redistribution state trading enterprises and politically optimal tariffs state trading enterprises stes are widely used and can be viewed as instruments of trade policy we analyse two aspects the first is their potential trade distorting effect the second is how they modify the case for the politically optimal tariff we show that the ste can reduce the need for a tariff designed for domestic redistribution this result introduces some ambiguity about how stes are interpreted from a multilateralist perspective they should be dealt with in the same way as other non tariff barriers from a nationalistic perspective they can reduce the need for politically optimal redistribution entreprises d etat impliquees dans le commerce international et tarifs politiquement optimaux les entreprises d etat impliquees dans le commerce international eeici sont communement utilisees comme instruments de politique commerciale on analyse deux aspects de cette intervention le premier est leur effet potentiel de distorsion sur les flux commerciaux le second est jusqu a quel point cette intervention modifie l argument du tarif politiquement optimal on montre que les eeici peuvent reduire le besoin d un tarif defini pour des fins de redistribution au niveau domestique le resultat injecte une certaine ambiguite dans le traitement des eeici d un point de vue international on devrait les traiter comme toute autre barriere non tarifaire d un point de vue nationaliste ils peuvent reduire le besoin de faire appel au politiquement optimal

bayesian semiparametric estimation of discrete duration models an application of the dirichlet process prior this paper proposes a bayesian estimator for a discrete time duration model which incorporates a non parametric specification of the unobserved heterogeneity distribution through the use of a dirichlet process prior this estimator offers distinct advantages over the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator of this model first it allows for exact finite sample inference second it is easily estimated and mixed with flexible specifications of the baseline hazard an application of the model to employment duration data from the canadian province of new brunswick is provided copyright 2001 john wiley sons ltd

optimal policies and marketing board objectives abstract in this paper we examine optimal tax subsidy policies with export marketing boards that compete as oligopolists in world markets by taking a targeting approach to identifying optimal policies we are able to show how optimal policies vary with the objectives of board the nature of competition in world markets as well as assumptions about market segmentation and regulation in none of the cases examined does a marketing board without tax subsidy policy replicate the social optimum moreover we show that the policies necessary to attain the social optimum are quite different with the institutional variation considered arbitrage and regulation is the only case considered in which the optimal export policy is definitely a tax and in which the marketing board s objective does not affect policy

does environmental concern change the tragedy of the commons factors affecting energy saving behaviors and electricity usage electricity consumption produces private goods such as heat for homes but fossil fuel consumption impacts the public goods of clean air and water while self interests can increase usage social interests such as global climate change can impact an individual s attitude toward energy consumption this paper examines the tragedy of the commons using household data and compares the impact of self and social interests in predicting electricity consumption using both stated and observed behavioral data the results show that self interests have a greater impact on energy saving behaviors and electricity use we extend the analysis to control for an individual s environmental concern and perceived behavioral impact finding similar results and supporting the notion that the tragedy of the commons occurs regardless of a person s perception or environmental concern these findings may explain why pro environmental attitudes do not necessarily lead to pro environmental behaviors and it contributes to our understanding of the motivating factors for energy savings and electricity use by examining both stated and observed behaviors policies aimed at electricity reduction may have a greater impact if they focus on private interests such as pricing rebates subsidies and taxes rather than social interests alone

income distribution and macroeconomics this paper analyzes the role of wealth distribution in macroeconomics through investment in human capital it is shown that in the presence of credit markets imperfections and indivisibilities in investment in human capital the initial distribution of wealth affects aggregate output and investment both in the short and in the long run as there are multiple steady states this paper therefore provides an additional explanation for the persistent differences in per capita output across countries furthermore the paper shows that cross country differences in macroeconomic adjustment to aggregate shocks can be attributed among other factors to differences in wealth and income distribution across countries

new ways of looking at old issues inequality and growth abstract the paper uses new cross country data on income and asset land distribution to show that i there is a strong negative relationship between initial inequality in the asset distribution and long term growth ii inequality reduces income growth for the poor but not for the rich and iii available longitudinal data provide little support for the kuznets hypothesis policies that increase aggregate investment and facilitate acquisition of assets by the poor might thus be doubly beneficial for growth and poverty reduction

how misleading is linearization evaluating the dynamics of the neoclassical growth model this paper investigates the reliability of employing linearization to evaluate the dynamic adjustments to changes in productive government spending in a ramsey growth model if government expenditure is introduced as a flow and the dynamic adjustment is fast linearization may yield a reasonably good approximation to the true dynamics even for fairly large policy shocks if government expenditure assumes the form of a stock leading to more sluggish adjustment linearization may yield misleading predictions these errors occur at the beginning of the transition and weigh heavily in welfare calculations the implications for temporary shocks and the speed of convergence are also considered

the determinants of black white differences in early employment careers search layoffs quits and endogenous wage growth this paper studies the transition from school to full time employment and subsequent labor mobility during the first five postschooling years for several recent cohorts of black and white male terminal high school graduates using unique data from the 1979 youth cohort of the national longitudinal surveys of labor market experience a constrained optimization model of labor force dynamics is implemented empirically integrating features of models previously described in the literature the estimates of the model provide quantitative evidence on underlying structural differences in labor market constraints faced by blacks and whites for example while blacks have overall a substantially smaller wage return to work experience and face a less disperse wage offer distribution blacks face a higher probability of receiving job offers

political manipulation of a public firm s objective function abstract in the context of a government owned public firm that competes with a private firm this paper demonstrates how the government can maximize its true objective by assigning the public firm a different objective function interestingly this assigned objective function need bear no resemblance to the actual objective being sought enabling the government to disguise a politically unpopular agenda and or outside influence

infrastructure and inequality abstract we develop a model in which public capital is both an engine of growth and a determinant of the distributions of wealth income and welfare government investment increases wealth inequality over time regardless of its financing the time path of income inequality is however highly sensitive to financing policies and is often characterized by sharp intertemporal tradeoffs with income inequality declining in the short run but increasing in the long run public investment generates a positive correlation between growth and income inequality along the transition path but their short run and long run relationship depends critically on i how externalities impinge on allocation decisions ii financing policies and iii the time period of consideration finally these policies also generate sharp trade offs between average welfare and its distribution with government investment improving average welfare but also increasing its dispersion our results are obtained numerically but extensive sensitivity analysis confirms their robustness across key parameter values

politically realistic objective functions and trade policy profs and tariffs abstract this paper demonstrates a mathematical correspondence between the deus ex machina tariff formation approach and political economy approach the correspondence implies that the tariff chosen by lobbying influenced policy makers will be equivalent to a tariff chosen by a deus ex machina government that gives too much weight to profits this result allows many political economy issues to be addressed in the simple framework of a deus ex machina government which faces a politically realistic objective function prof

attrition in panel survey data and the estimation of multi state labor market models in the analysis of labor market transitions spells that are incomplete due to panel survey attrition are treated as spells that are subject to independent right censoring it is likely however that the unobserved characteristics affecting individual transitions on the labor market are related to those affecting the attitude toward survey participation in that case the transition rate estimates are inconsistent in this paper we analyze the relation between durations spent in labor market states and the duration of panel survey participation by explicitly modeling and estimating both stochastic processes we use multi state multi spell models which allow for stochastically related unobserved determinants

a new data set measuring income inequality this article presents a new data set on inequality in the distribution of income the authors explain the criteria they applied in selecting data on gini coefficients and on individual quintile groups income shares comparison of the new data set with existing compilations reveals that the data assembled here represent an improvement in quality and a significant expansion in coverage although differences in the definition of the underlying data might still affect inter temporal and international comparability based on this new data set the authors do not find a systematic link between growth and changes in aggregate inequality they do find a strong positive relationship between growth and reduction of poverty

the combination of gravity and welfare approaches for evaluating nontariff measures this article explores the link between gravity and welfare frameworks for measuring the impact of nontariff measures first an analytical approach suggests how to combine a gravity equation with a partial equilibrium model to determine the welfare impact of nontariff measures second an empirical application focuses on the effects of a standard that caps antibiotic residues in crustaceans in the united states the european union canada and japan while the econometric estimation of the gravity equation reports a negative impact on imports welfare evaluations show that in most cases a stricter standard leads to an increase in both domestic and international welfare

unemployment duration stigma and re employment earnings a nonstationary model of individual labor market histories where the distribution of wages offers depends on elapsed unemployment duration and where unemployment compensation is claimed for a limited period only is estimated from sample information on completed unemployment duration accepted earnings and accepted job duration and can identify movements in the reservation wages induced by human capital loss from those caused by benefit exhaustion the results indicate that individuals seem to be much more sensitive to benefit exhaustion than human capital loss the estimated structural parameters provide an explanation for the existence of a statistical relationship between continuous unemployment and accepted job durations

education democracy and growth abstract this note presents a model of endogenous growth where redistribution determined by a political equilibrium is in the form of public education it is shown that there need not be a negative relationship between growth and redistribution as public education increases the level of human capital in the conomy and at the same time tends to produce a more even income distribution

supply side hysteresis the case of the canadian unemployment insurance system abstract this paper presents results from a 1971 natural experiment carried out by the canadian government on the unemployment insurance system at that time the generosity of the ui system was increased dramatically we find some evidence that the propensity to collect ui increases with a first time exposure to the new ui system hence as more individuals experience unemployment their lifetime use of the system increases this supply side hysteresis effect may explain why unemployment has steadily increased over the 1972 1992 period even though the generosity of unemployment insurance did not

unemployment insurance and job durations seasonal and non seasonal jobs the authors use regional and individual variation in unemployment insurance ui parameters to estimate the impact of ui incentives on job durations in doing so they distinguish between seasonal and nonseasonal jobs the authors find evidence of substantial tailoring of job durations to ui incentives in seasonal but not in nonseasonal jobs even for seasonal jobs adjusting ui parameters has small impacts on average job duration except in high unemployment regions increasing the ui entrance requirement leads to some job lengthening but also to the creation of more very short jobs

search benefits and entitlement in a simultaneous analysis of unemployment duration and search intensity we estimate a non structural search model accounting explicitly for two features of the benefit system benefit level and time remaining until exhaustion of the entitlement period residual entitlement special attention is paid to the number of search contacts as an indicator for search intensity to assess the effect of the benefit level and residual entitlement on the number of search contacts we estimate a poisson model our results suggest that benefits work through a reduction of search efforts whereas residual entitlement is effective mainly through the reservation wage

the trade distorting effect of state trading enterprises in importing countries abstract this paper focuses on the potential trade distorting effect of state trading enterprises an issue that is likely to receive greater attention than hitherto in the context of the current agricultural negotiations in the wto although state trading enterprises can arise in both exporting and importing countries the emphasis here is on the importing country case our results show that state trading enterprises do distort trade though the nature of the distortion i e whether it is equivalent to an import tariff or import subsidy depends on the nature of exclusive rights bestowed by government on the state enterprise we also consider state trading enterprises in both developed and developing economies the main difference being the nature of the government s pay off function the theoretical framework allows us to derive the tariff equivalent effects for various types of stes the results suggesting that the trade distorting effect is likely to vary considerably dependent on the type of ste that arises in particular circumstances

economies of scale and market structure in international grain trade a large body of literature has examined international grain trade in imperfectly competitive models the article develops a two stage duopoly model that considers a private trader and a state trading enterprise ste competing on a foreign market the key difference between the private trader and the ste is their international organization while the ste makes use of external agents to export the private firm may choose to internalize international transactions the game is solved for different modes of competition and under both assumptions of homogeneous and differentiated products in order to assess how these assumptions affect the outcome of the game the results of the game are examined by using numerical examples the analysis shows that external shocks on export markets may result in a change of market structure and consequently of market shares these effects depend on the initial market structure furthermore the degree of product differentiation and the assumed mode of competition significantly affect the relative values of transaction and fixed costs at which the market structure changes

growth and inequality dependence on the time path of productivity increases and other structural changes abstract this paper examines the significance of the time path of a given productivity increase on growth and inequality whereas the time path impacts only the transitional paths of aggregate quantities it has both transitional and permanent consequences for wealth and income distribution hence the growth inequality tradeoff generated by a given discrete increase in productivity contrasts sharply with that obtained when the same productivity increase occurs gradually the latter can generate a kuznets type relationship between inequality and per capita income our results suggest that economies with similar aggregate structural characteristics may have different outcomes for income and wealth inequality depending on the nature of the productivity growth path

the trade and welfare effects of state trading in china with reference to cofco the use of state trading to manage imports and exports has been a long standing feature of china s agricultural trade regime while the use of state trading was modified by china s accession to the wto state trading still dominates for some commodities even though there have been recent attempts to diminish its importance in this paper we analyse the potential trade distorting effect of cofco on market access and export competition by drawing on some recent research on the impact of stes on agricultural trade by using a calibrated model of china s imports of wheat and exports of maize we are able to quantify the size of the trade distortions

heterogeneity and unemployment dynamics many previous articles have studied the contribution of inflows and outflows to the cyclical variation in unemployment but ignored the critical role of unobserved heterogeneity across workers thi

distributional dynamics in a neoclassical growth model the role of elastic labor supply we examine the evolution of the distributions of wealth and income in a ramsey model in which agents differ in their initial capital endowment and where the labor supply is endogenous the assumption that the utility function is homogeneous implies that the macroeconomic equilibrium is independent of the distribution of wealth and allows us to characterize fully income and wealth dynamics we find that although the dynamics of the distribution of wealth are similar under fixed and flexible labor those of the income distribution are not in response to a structural change income inequality may move in opposite ways depending on whether or not the labor supply is fixed

assessing the distortionary impact of state trading in china state trading is a common feature in the management of imports and exports of agricultural products and it has been a long standing feature of china s agricultural trade regime while the use of state trading was modified by china s accession to the wto it remains a dominant feature for some commodities even though there have been recent attempts to diminish its importance in this article we review the role that the state trading enterprise ste china national cereals oils and foodstuffs import and export company cofco continues to play in the importing and exporting of some agricultural commodities we then review the economic theory that has been developed to measure the tariff equivalent of importing stes finally we apply that theory through a calibration exercise to measure the tariff equivalent of cofco in china s import market for wheat the distortionary impact of cofco depends on the bias in government policy toward agriculture the competitiveness of the domestic procurement market and also the number of firms that are allocated licenses to import alongside cofco

equity and efficiency in human capital investment the local connection a general model of community formation and human capital accumulation with social spillovers and decentralized school funding is used to analyse the causes of economic segregation and its consequences for equity and efficiency significant polarization arises from minor differences in endowments preferences or access to capital markets this makes income inequality more persistent across generations but the same need not be true for wealth equilibrium stratification tends to be excessive resulting in low aggregate surplus whether state equalization of school resources can remedy these problems hinges on how purchased social and family inputs interact in education and in mobility decisions

dynamic status effects savings and income inequality this paper advances the hypothesis that the intensity of status preferences depends negatively on the average wealth of society endogenous dynamic status effect in accordance with empirical evidence our theory replicates the contradictory historical facts of an increasing saving rate along with declining returns to capital over time by affecting the dynamics of the saving rate the dynamic status effect raises inequality thereby providing a behavioural mechanism for the observed diverse dynamics of income inequality across countries in countries in which the dynamic status effect is strong weak inequality rises declines over time in response to a positive productivity shock

partial privatization in mixed duopoly abstract we investigate a quantity setting duopoly involving a private firm and a privatized firm jointly owned by the public and private sectors the private firm maximizes profits while the privatized firm takes both profits and social welfare into consideration we consider how many shares the government should hold in the privatized firm we find that neither full privatization the government does not hold any shares nor full nationalization the government holds all of the shares is optimal under moderate conditions

game theoretic models of mixed oligopoly abstract in this paper we review various models that have been proposed for the study of mixed oligopoly that is markets in which private and public firm compete on equal basis using only market instruments

bayesian estimation and smoothing of the baseline hazard in discrete time duration models this paper proposes a bayesian approach for estimating and smoothing the baseline hazard in a discrete time hazard model the hazard model is specified as a multiperiod probit model and estimated using a gibbs sampler with data augmentation the baseline hazard specification is smoothed using the smoothness priors introduced by shiller 1973 the methods proposed in this paper are then used to study the effect of canadian unemployment insurance eligibility rules on employment durations from new brunswick canada

is unemployment insurance addictive evidence from the benefit durations of repeat users the author finds evidence that the past occurrence of a spell of insured unemployment lengthens the duration of future spells descriptive statistics from canadian administrative data covering mid 1971 to early 1990 suggest that unemployment insurance ui claimants tend to spend a longer and longer time collecting benefits with each additional claim they make this finding contradicts the implication of static neoclassical models that successive ui spells should be of the same length the author hypothesizes that the stigma attached to receiving unemployment benefits erodes with each new ui claim an individual files

mixed oligopoly privatization and strategic trade policy this paper investigates the effects of privatization in the presence of strategic trade policies within an international mixed oligopoly serving a single market if the government uses a domestic production subsidy then welfare is always increased with privatization while the optimal subsidy falls if the government uses an import tariff privatization increases welfare over much of the parameter space the optimal tariff however may rise or fall in recent years many countries around the world are privatizing their state owned industries at the same time many of these countries are also showing remarkable changes in their economic policies toward international trade on many occasions tariffs are significantly altered and domestic production subsidies are substantially reduced for example russia has privatized its aircraft industry and doubled its tariff on imported aircraft colombia has privatized its stateowned automobile maker colombia automotriz and reduced the import tariffs on foreign made cars in argentina the government is pursuing a policy of selective privatization and subsequent reduction of subsidies in western europe countries such as germany and spain have privatized their major airlines lufthansa and iberia respectively and significantly reduced subsidies what is the connection between privatization and strategic trade policies does privatization require a welfare maximizing government to alter trade barriers the objective of this paper is to answer these questions by investigating the interaction between privatization and strategic trade policies the effects of privatization are typically analyzed in the context of mixed oligopoly models where state owned welfare maximizing public firms interact with profit maximizing private firms 1 we investigate the interaction between privatization and strategic trade policies by incorporating strategic trade instruments in an international mixed oligopoly model specifically we consider two strategic trade instruments an import tariff and a domestic production subsidy the government chooses the optimal level of tariff or subsidy to maximize domestic welfare for each trade instrument we primarily focus on two questions first does privatization increase

technological progress mobility and economic growth this paper analyzes the relationship between technological progress wage inequality intergenerational earnings mobility and economic growth in periods of major technological inventions a decline in the relative importance of initial conditions raises inequality enhances mobility and generates a larger concentration of high ability individuals in technologically advanced sectors stimulating future technological progress and growth however once technologies become more accessible mobility is diminished and inequality decreases but becomes more persistent the reduction in the concentration of ability in technologically advanced sectors diminishes the likelihood of technological breakthroughs and slows future growth user friendliness therefore becomes unfriendly to future economic growth copyright 1997 by american economic association

some estimates of the effects of unemployment insurance on re employment duration abstract this paper examines how re employment spell durations are affected by the potential unemployment benefit period an ex ante notion and benefit exhaustion an ex post notion the extent to which benefit duration affects re employment duration is found to depend on the nature of the separation

inequality growth and environmental quality trade offs in a model with human capital accumulation this paper develops a simple endogenous growth model where pollution exposure and vulnerability are unequally spread across the population and growth and distribution are endogenous in this set up we investigate whether trade offs between growth distributional and environmental concerns may emerge we show that a tighter environmental policy reduces income inequality and can improve both growth and total welfare immediate welfare losses though do occur and are larger for countries that start at low levels of environmental quality e g developing countries inegalite croissance et qualite de l environnement arbitrages dans un modele d accumulation de capital humain nous developpons un modele de croissance endogene ou l exposition et la vulnerabilite a la pollution sont inegalement reparties dans la population et ou la croissance et la distribution des revenus sont determinees de facon endogene dans ce cadre d analyse nous cherchons s il existe des arbitrages entre la croissance les inegalites et l environnement notamment dans les pays en developpement nous montrons qu une politique environnementale plus stricte conduit a la fois a une reduction des inegalit es et a une augmentation de la croissance et du bien etre dans un premier temps cependant ce changement de politique conduit a une reduction du bien etre qui est relativement plus importante pour les pays dont la qualite environmentale est initiallement faible e g les pays en developpement

effects of manpower policies on duration dependence in re employment rates the example of sweden in contrast to the evidence from other countries swedish studies of the transition from unemployment to employment have consistently reported a non negative duration dependenice in the hazard this study examines the extent to which this results from large scale labour market programmes a limited duration of unemployment benefits or differences among available jobs the labour market programmes are here found to be the primary factor behiind the earlier swedish results the programmes thus pick up those with the worst employment prospects thereby postponing a decrease in the re employment probability among job searchers this in turn generates an on average constant duration dependence

the value of the initial payment of the canadian wheat board as a signaling device this paper analyzes the role of the initial payment used by the canadian wheat board cwb in the determination of export prices and sales under the assumption that the cwb has better information about realized yields in canada than its us competitor in the separating equilibrium of the game the initial payment of the cwb is larger than the initial payment under complete information there exists an incentive under incomplete information to send a signal that realized yields are greater than expected to induce a reduction in the sales of foreign competitors we illustrate the strategic value of the initial payment for canadian wheat producers using a numerical simulation

distributive politics and economic growth a crude distinction between economics and politics would be that economics is concerned with expanding the pie while politics is about distributing it in this paper we analyze the relationship between the two we focus on how an economy s initial configuration of resources shapes the political struggle for income and wealth distribution and how that in turn affects long run growth our main conclusion is that inequality is conducive to the adoption of growth retarding policies we derive this result from a simple political economy model of growth and present cross country evidence consistent with it the key feature of our model is that individuals differ in their relative factor endowments we distinguish between two types of factors an accumulated factor called capital and a nonaccumulated factor called labor growth is driven by the expansion of the capital stock which is in turn determined by individual saving decisions long run growth is endogenous as the aggregate production function is taken to be linearly homogeneous in capital and productive government services taken together the provision of government services is financed by a tax on capital because government services are productive a small tax on

trade policy issues and empirical analysis interest in u s trade policy has been stimulated in recent years by the massive american trade deficit by the belief that intervention by foreign governments in international markets has given other countries a competitive edge over the united states and by concern about the increase in protectionism among industrial countries in turn major analytical developments in international economics have revolutionized trade theory broadening its scope both by introducing in a more formal manner such concepts as imperfect competition increasing returns product differentiation and learning effects and by including the study of political and economic factors that shape trade policy decisions this collection of papers the result of a conference held by the nber applies these new trade theories to existing world cases and also presents complementary empirical studies that are grounded in more traditional trade theories the volume is divided into four parts the papers in part 1 consider the problem of imperfect competition empirically assessing the economic effect of various trade policies introduced in industries in which the new trade theory seems to apply those in part 2 isolate the effects of protection from the influences of the many economic changes that accompany actual periods of protection and also examine how the effects from exogenous changes in economic conditions vary with the form of protection part 3 provides new empirical evidence on the effect of foreign production by a country s firms on the home country s exports finally in part 4 two key bilateral issues are analyzed recent u s japanese trade tensions and the incident involving the threat of the imposition of countervailing duties by the united states on canadian softwood lumber

climbing out of poverty falling back in measuring the persistence of poverty over multiple spells this paper investigates the persistence of poverty over individuals life times using a hazard rate approach that accounts for multiple spells of poverty and incorporates spell duration individual and household characteristics and unobserved heterogeneity the findings highlight the importance of considering multiple spells in an analysis of poverty persistence with half of those who end poverty spells returning to poverty within four years accounting for multiple spells shows that approximately 50 percent of blacks and 30 percent of whites falling into poverty in some year will have family income below the poverty line in five or more of the next ten years

unemployment insurance unemployment durations and re employment wages abstract we develop an empirical model to estimate the impact of ui on unemployment duration and re employment wages the model estimates the ui receipt unemployment duration and re employment wage equations simultaneously incorporates unobserved heterogeneity variables in each equation and allows them to be correlated the nlsy79 data is used to estimate the model some results are found in support of the positive effect of ui on re employment wages

labour market institutions and the personal distribution of income in the oecd we examine what determines differences across countries and over time in the distribution of personal incomes in the oecd we first model the wage determination process and show that unemployment the labour share and the wage differential are all functions of labour market institutions next we show that in a model economy with only four types of agents capitalists skilled and unskilled workers and unemployed the gini coefficient of personal incomes can be expressed as a function of the above three variables labour market institutions hence affect income inequality though the sign of their impact is ambiguous stronger unions and or a more generous unemployment benefit tend to reduce inequality through reduced wage differentials a higher labour share and also higher unemployment we then use a panel of oecd countries for the period 1970 96 to examine these effects we find first that the labour share remains an important aspect of overall inequality patterns and second that stronger unions and a more generous unemployment benefit tend to reduce income inequality high capital labour ratios also emerge as a strong equalising factor which has in part offset the impact of increasing wage inequality on the us distribution of personal incomes

unemployment insurance rules joblessness and part time work developed and under general conditions an increase in the disregard is shown to increase both the part time and overall re employment hazards data from the current population survey s displaced worker supplements are used to test these predictions estimates from a competing risks model with correlated risks and time varying coefficients shows that increasing the disregard significantly increases the conditional probability of part time re employment during the first three months of joblessness

welfare benefits and the duration of welfare spells evidence from a natural experiment in canada abstract this paper uses a major reform of the welfare program implemented in the province of quebec canada in 1989 to analyze the impact of benefits on the length of welfare spells an important feature of this reform was the abolishment of discrimination based on age that applied to benefits as a result the monthly benefits of single individuals aged less than 30 increased from 173 to 425 1986 an increase of over 145 to assess the impact of the reform we estimate a series of semi parametric hazard models analogous to the regression approach to difference in differences estimation the estimated duration elasticities with respect to benefits for single men and women aged 22 29 are 0 25 and 0 28 respectively