fdi and taxation a meta study despite the continuing political interest in the usefulness of tax competition and tax coordination as well as the wealth of theoretical analyses it still remains open whether or when tax competition is harmful moreover the influence of tax differentials on multinationals decisions is still insufficiently analyzed thus economists have increasingly resorted to empirical analysis in order to gain insights on the elasticity of fdi with respect to company taxation as a result the empirical literature on taxation and international capital flows has grown to a similar abundance during the last 25 years as the respective theoretical literature its heterogeneity leads to a rising need for concise reviews on the existing empirical evidence in this paper we extend former meta analyses on fdi and taxation in three ways first we add the most recent publications unconsidered in meta analyses up to date second we apply a different methodology by using a broad set of meta regression estimators and explicitly discuss which one is most suitable for application to our meta data third we address some important issues in research on fdi and taxation to the clarification of which meta analysis can make valuable contributions these issues are mainly the influence of variables which might moderate effects of tax differentials e g public spending the implications of using aggregate fdi data as opposed to firm level information on measured tax effects the implications of bilateral effective tax rates and the possible presence of publication bias in primary research

a note on comparative downside risk aversion abstract we provide comparative global conditions for downside risk aversion which are similar to the ones studied by ross for risk aversion we define a coefficient of downside risk aversion and study its local properties

policy options in a liquidity trap the specter of a liquidity trap originally proposed as a theoretical possibility by john maynard keynes 1936 but long considered to be of doubtful practical relevance has recently created alarm among the world s central banks in japan the overnight rate has been essentially at zero for most of the time since february 1999 making further interest rate cuts impossible yet until well into 2003 growth remained anemic while prices continued to fall suggesting a need for further monetary stimulus since march 2001 the bank of japan has supplemented its zero interest rate policy with a policy of quantitative easing under which additional bank reserves are supplied beyond those needed to keep overnight interest rates at zero yet an increase in base money of more than 50 percent failed to halt the deflation suggesting a liquidity trap more recently other central banks including the fed have come close enough to the zero bound to worry about how they would deal with a similar predicament here we first discuss whether monetary policy should actually become ineffective when the zero bound on interest rates is reached we argue that open market operations even of unconventional types will be ineffective if they do not change expectations about the future conduct of policy in this sense a liquidity trap is possible nonetheless a credible commitment regarding future policy can largely mitigate the distortions created by the zero bound we fully characterize the optimal commitment in a simple example

foreign ownership and corporate income taxation an empirical evaluation abstract foreign ownership allows countries to effectively export part of their corporate tax burden hence countries with high foreign ownership are expected to impose relatively high corporate taxes the findings of this paper suggest that there indeed is an economically significant positive relationship between foreign ownership and tax burdens in europe already significant foreign ownership levels in europe offer an explanation for the absence of a race to the bottom in corporate tax levels

on multivariate prudence in this paper we extend the theory of precautionary saving to the case in which uncertainty is multidimensional and we develop a matrix measure of multivariate prudence furthermore we characterize comparative prudence decreasing and increasing prudence the effect of uncertainty on the marginal propensity to consume out of wealth and the dreze modigliani substitution effect in this multivariate setting we also characterize the concept of multivariate downside risk aversion as a multivariate preference for harm disaggregation we show that our definition is equivalent to a positive precautionary saving motive we propose an alternative measure of the intensity of downside risk aversion and show that this measure is useful in understanding several economic problems that involve multivariate preferences

pioneering price level targeting the swedish experience 1931 1937 in september 1931 sweden became the first country to make the stabilization of the domestic price level the official goal of its monetary policy actually the only country that so far has adopted such an explicit price level target starting from the issues and concepts familiar from research and policy experience of inflation targeting as contrasted to price level targeting this paper examines the evolution of the swedish price level targeting in the 1930s we bring out a number of similarities and differences between price stabilization in the 1930s and in the 1990s

vacancies unemployment and the phillips curve abstract the canonical new keynesian phillips curve has become a standard component of models designed for monetary policy analysis however in the basic new keynesian model there is no unemployment all variation in labor input occurs along the intensive hours margin and the driving variable for inflation depends on workers marginal rates of substitution between leisure and consumption in this paper we incorporate a theory of unemployment into the new keynesian theory of inflation and empirically test its implications for inflation dynamics we show how a traditional phillips curve linking inflation and unemployment can be derived and how the elasticity of inflation with respect to unemployment depends on structural characteristics of the labor market such as the matching technology that pairs vacancies with unemployed workers we estimate on us data the phillips curve generated by the model while we can reject the baseline new keynesian phillips curve in favor of the search frictions specification we show it is still too stylized to fully describe the dynamics of firms marginal costs

optimal monetary policy rules financial amplification and uncertain business cycles abstract this paper studies optimal monetary policy in the presence of uncertainty time variation in cross sectional dispersion of firms productive performance using a model with financial market imperfections the results suggest that i optimal policy is to dampen the strength of financial amplification by responding to uncertainty at the expense of creating mild degree of fluctuations in inflation ii higher uncertainty makes the welfare maximizing planner more willing to relax financial constraints iii credit spreads are a good proxy for uncertainty hence a non negligible response to credit spreads together with a strong anti inflationary policy stance achieves the highest aggregate welfare possible

optimal price level drift under commitment in the canonical new keynesian model in both the canonical and many extended versions of the new keynesian model optimal monetary policy under commitment implies price level stationarity as long as expectations are rational we show that this is no longer the case if the central bank and private agents make decisions before observing current shocks the optimal amount of price level drift in response to unexpected innovations to inflation is quantitatively important this result has important implications for monetary policy including the design of the optimal loss function for the central bank if it cannot commit to its future policies a la fois dans la version canonique du nouveau modele keynesien et de ses versions etendues la politique monetaire optimale quand il y a engagement implique qu il y aura stationnarite du niveau des prix aussi longtemps que les anticipations sont rationnelles on montre que ce n est plus le cas si la banque centrale et les agents prives prennent des decisions avant d observer les chocs courants le montant optimal de la derive du niveau des prix en reponse aux innovations non anticipees dans l inflation est quantitativement important ce resultat a des implications importantes pour la politique monetaire y compris le design d une fonction de perte optimale pour la banque centrale si elle ne peut pas s engager a poursuivre ses politiques dans l avenir

multinationals profit response to tax differentials effect size and shifting channels this paper provides a quantitative review of the empirical literature on profit shifting behavior of multinational firms we synthesize the evidence from 25 studies and find a substantial response of profit measures to international tax rate differentials accounting for misspecification biases by means of meta regressions we predict a tax semi elasticity of subsidiary pre tax profits of about 0 8 moreover we disentangle the tax response by means of financial planning from the transfer pricing and licensing channel our results suggest that transfer pricing and licensing are the dominant profit shifting channel

corporate taxation in the oecd in a wider context against the background of increased globalisation statutory corporate tax rates have shown a clear downward trend over the last two decades the sharp decline in these rates was accompanied by substantial tax base broadening and a comparable reduction in personal income tax rates only until the early 1990s this suggests that corporate tax competition is of increasing importance so far corporate tax revenues remain fairly stable but an analysis of corporate taxation in the context of the overall tax systems shows that a substantial shift towards value added taxes has taken place while the trends so far have been driven by smaller european countries recent tax reforms indicate that increasing tax competition is inducing a shift towards consumption even for larger economies

higher order generalizations of arrow pratt and ross risk aversion a comparative statics approach abstract we analyze comparative risk aversion in a new way through a comparative statics problem in which for a cost agents can shift from an initial probability distribution toward a preferred distribution the ross characterization arises when the original distribution is riskier than the preferred distribution and the cost is monetary and the arrow pratt characterization arises when the original distribution differs from the preferred distribution by a simple mean preserving spread and the cost is a utility cost higher order increases in risk lead to higher order generalizations and the comparative statics method yields a unified approach to the problem of comparative risk attitudes

repatriation taxes repatriation strategies and multinational financial policy abstract several investment repatriation strategies are added to the standard model of a multinational in which an affiliate is located in a low tax country and is limited to two alternatives repatriating taxable dividends to the parent or investing in its own real operations in our model affiliates can invest in passive assets which the parent can borrow against or in related affiliates which can be used as vehicles for tax favored repatriations we show analytically how the availability of alternative strategies can effect real investment throughout the worldwide corporation we use firm level data for us multinationals to test for the importance of alternative strategies the evidence is generally consistent with the theory particularly the strategies using related affiliates

stabilizing non fundamental asset price movements under discretion and limited information abstract inflation output and interest rate stabilization are all potential central bank objectives we explore whether monetary policy should respond to asset price fluctuations when they are driven by irrational expectational shocks to the future returns to capital in our model an optimistic shock to future returns generates both an increase in equity prices and physical investment the increased investment is inefficient and thus a central bank optimally responds to this expectations shocks this induces a trade off between stabilizing nominal prices and non fundamental asset price movements we compare the optimal policy under different assumptions full versus limited information and commitment versus discretion if the central bank has limited information about whether an asset price movement has a fundamental or non fundamental origin then the central bank responds less aggressively to the non fundamental exuberance shocks than under full information without commitment a central bank responds more aggressively to non fundamental exuberance shocks

money liquidity and monetary policy in a market based financial system banking and capital market developments are inseparable and funding conditions are closely tied to fluctuations in the leverage of market based financial intermediaries offering a window on liquidity the balance sheet growth of broker dealers provides a sense of the availability of credit contractions of broker dealer balance sheets have tended to precede declines in real economic growth even before the current turmoil for this reason balance sheet quantities of market based financial intermediaries are important macroeconomic state variables for the conduct of monetary policy

collective moral hazard maturity mismatch and systemic bailouts the paper elicits a mechanism by which private leverage choices exhibit strategic complementarities through the reaction of monetary policy when everyone engages in maturity transformation authorities haver little choice but facilitating refinancing in turn refusing to adopt a risky balance sheet lowers the return on equity the key ingredient is that monetary policy is non targeted the ex post benefits from a monetary bailout accrue in proportion to the number amount of leverage while the distortion costs are to a large extent fixed this insight has important consequences first banks choose to correlate their risk exposures second private borrowers may deliberately choose to increase their interest rate sensitivity following bad news about future needs for liquidity third optimal monetary policy is time inconsistent fourth macro prudential supervision is called for we characterize the optimal regulation which takes the form of a minimum liquidity requirement coupled with monitoring of the quality of liquid assets we establish the robustness of our insights when the set of

the impact of the corporate income tax evidence from state organizational form data abstract by taxing the income of corporate firms at a different rate than non corporate firms taxes can play an important role in a firm s choice of organizational form the sensitivity of the organizational form decision to tax rates provides a key indicator of the distortion created by the corporate income tax this paper uses new cross sectional data on organizational form choices across states compiled in the census of retail trade to estimate this sensitivity the results document a significant impact of the relative taxation of corporate to personal income on the share of real economic activity that is done by corporations and that the impact is many times larger than has been found in the previous empirical literature based on time series data the results show little impact however on the actual operations of firms such as their labor intensity wages and the like they do indicate that firms are able to exploit the progressivity of the corporate income tax system by dividing into numerous firms

international corporate tax avoidance a review of the channels magnitudes and blind spots this paper reviews the rapidly growing empirical literature on international tax avoidance by multinational corporations it surveys evidence on main channels of corporate tax avoidance including transfer mispricing international debt shifting treaty shopping tax deferral and corporate inversions moreover it performs a meta analysis of the extensive literature that estimates the overall size of profit shifting we find that the literature suggests that for the most recent year a 1 percentage point lower corporate tax rate compared to other countries will expand before tax income by 1 5 percent an effect that is larger than reported as the consensus estimate in previous surveys and tends to be increasing over time the literature on tax avoidance still has several unresolved puzzles and blind spots that require further research

mixed risk aversion abstract we analyze the class of increasing utility functions exhibiting all derivatives of alternating sign this property that we call mixed risk aversion is satisfied by the utility functions most commonly used in financial economics the utility functions displaying mixed risk aversion can be expressed as mixtures of exponential functions we characterize stochastic dominance and we find conditions for both mutual aggravation and mutual amelioration of risks when agents are mixed risk averse finally the analysis of the distribution function describing a mixed utility allows one to characterize the behaviour of its indexes of risk aversion and to discuss its implications for portfolio selection journal of economic literature classification numbers d81 g11

average inflation targeting the analysis of this paper demonstrates that when the phillips curve has forward looking components a goal for average inflation i e targeting a j period average of one period inflation rates will cause inflation expectations to change in a way that improves the short run trade off faced by the monetary policymaker average inflation targeting is thus an example of a modified loss function which when implemented in a discretionary fashion results in more efficient outcomes from the standpoint of the true social objective inflation targeting under commitment than the discretionary pursuit of the true objective itself in purely forward looking models average inflation targeting is dominated by price level targeting but we also demonstrate in a micro founded model where the phillips curve has both forward and backward looking components that there are cases when the average inflation target provides more efficient outcomes than both ordinary one period inflation targeting and price level targeting

tax incentives and job creation in the tourism sector of brazil s sudene area summary in recent decades a significant number of developing countries have implemented fiscal incentives programs for the tourism industry as part of their regional development policies the main objective of these programs is to increase local investment and employment as tourism activities are labor intensive little evidence is available however to assess the effect of these policies on job creation in emerging markets in this paper we analyze a program of fiscal incentives introduced by the brazilian federal government in the sudene area in 2002 and in which tourism firms were eligible to participate through a difference in difference estimation we compare the change in the logarithm of local employment in the sudene municipalities before and after 2002 to the change in the same outcome in a group of municipalities that were not affected by the program although our empirical analysis does not measure the efficiency of a similar fiscal policy it is the first one in the literature to show its effectiveness it provides evidence that the fiscal incentives led to a substantial increase in tourism employment in the sudene area we find that over the period 2002 09 municipal tourism employment was on average 30 higher than in the absence of the intervention this result is robust and is not the consequence of either displacement effects or job destruction in neighboring municipalities that had not been targeted by the tax incentives we finally discuss some limitations of our analysis that might open avenues for future research in the field

price level targeting vs inflation targeting a free lunch price level targeting without base drift and inflation targeting with base drift are compared under commitment and discretion with persistence in unemployment price level targeting is often said to imply more short run inflation variability and thereby more employment variability than inflation targeting counter to this conventional wisdom under discretion a price level target results in lower inflation variability than an inflation target if unemployment is at least moderately persistent a price level target also eliminates the inflation bias under discretion and as is well known reduces long term price variability society may be better off assigning a price level target to the central bank even if its preferences correspond to inflation targeting a price level target thus appears to have more advantages than commonly acknowledged

how elastic are national corporate income tax bases in oecd countries the role of domestic and foreign tax rates abstract to what extent do reductions in corporate income tax cit rates attract foreign tax bases what are the revenue implications of a unilateral tax reduction when tax bases are internationally mobile these questions are explored using annual data from 17 oecd countries spanning the period 1982 to 2005 controlling for fixed country effects year effects and country time trends and subjecting our results to an extensive robustness analysis we find i a country s aggregate reported corporate profits are negatively and significantly affected by cit rate reductions in neighbouring countries ii a unilateral reduction in the domestic cit rate results in lower domestic cit revenues

multinationals and industrial policy are there benefits to the host country from multinational investments does potential value from these investments make active industrial policy worthwhile we answer the first question affirmatively having reviewed economic principles and evidence concerning the effects of projects locating in or not being off shored from a country on the second policy can have a limited effect in influencing location decisions but it is doubtful that it is cost effective implementation faces lack of information risk of capture and in many cases non rigorous processes competition between jurisdictions means that much policy is investment diversion not investment creation there is a case for supra national controls as with eu state aid regulations for policy to be used only for well defined market failures and for better implementation and more rigorous ex ante appraisal and ex post evaluation copyright 2013 oxford university press

do taxes affect corporate debt policy evidence from us corporate tax return data abstract this paper uses u s statistics of income soi corporate income tax returns balance sheet data on all corporations to estimate the effects of changes in corporate tax rates on the debt policies of firms of different sizes small firms face very different tax rates than larger firms and relative tax rates have also changed frequently over time providing substantial information to identify tax effects the results suggest that taxes have had a strong and statistically significant effect on debt levels for example cutting the corporate tax rate by ten percentage points e g from 46 to 36 holding personal tax rates fixed is forecast to reduce the fraction of assets financed with debt by around 3 5 since small firms normally rely much more heavily on debt finance yet face much lower tax incentives to use debt the estimated effect of taxes would be strongly biased downwards without controls for firm size

the role of exchange rate in inflation targeting the case of turkey the role of the exchange rates in emerging market economies that have adopted inflation targeting it is a critical and contentious issue in the relevant literature this article investigates whet

dual income taxation a promising path to tax reform for developing countries summary the dual income tax combines a progressive tax on labor income and a lower flat tax on income from capital unlike flat tax systems a dual income tax provides developing countries greater flexibility in addressing tax competition while retaining progressivity countries could use the move to a dual income tax system not just as an opportunity to rationalize the taxation of income from business operations and investment but also as a vehicle for broader reform of their tax systems

the impact of u s tax reform on foreign direct investment in the united states abstract this study empirically examines how taxes shape foreign direct investment and finds that increased taxes spur inward foreign investment this finding conforms with theories that recognize that foreign investor response is critically shaped by the tax provisions faced by the foreign investor in his home country and by the effects of tax reform on pre tax asset returns we demonstrate that average tax rates may better proxy tax effects than do effective tax rates our findings are more robust than previous results since we utilize the entire 1980s tax history consider a fuller set of industry distinctions and estimate the tax responsiveness in the context of exchange rate fluctuations

business taxation in a globalized world this paper addresses broad issues concerning taxes on company profit in a globalized world in which companies capital and profit can move easily between countries it considers reasons for national taxation of company profit in such a world and reviews the development of such taxes in the oecd the role played by tax havens is discussed and evidence on the responsiveness of companies to differences in taxation across countries is presented a central issue is the allocation of taxable profit between countries existing practice has no clear rationale recent proposals for fundamental reform in the eu are discussed

optimal monetary policy with uncertain fundamentals and dispersed information this paper studies optimal monetary policy in a model where aggregate fluctuations are driven by the private sector s uncertainty about the economy s fundamentals information on aggregate productivity is dispersed across agents and there are two aggregate shocks a standard productivity shock and a noise shock affecting public beliefs about aggregate productivity neither the central bank nor individual agents can distinguish the two shocks when they are realized despite the lack of superior information monetary policy can affect the economy s relative response to the two shocks as time passes better information on past fundamentals becomes available the central bank can then adopt a backward looking policy rule based on more precise information about past shocks by announcing its response to future information the central bank can influence the expected real interest rate faced by forward looking consumers with different beliefs and thus affect the equilibrium allocation if the announced future response is sufficiently aggressive the central bank can completely eliminate the effect of noise shocks however this policy is typically suboptimal as it leads to an excessively compressed distribution of relative prices the optimal monetary policy balances the benefits of aggregate stabilization with the costs in terms of cross sectional efficiency copyright wiley blackwell

inflation forecast targeting implementing and monitoring inflation targets abstract inflation targeting is shown to imply inflation forecast targeting the central bank s inflation forecast becomes an explicit intermediate target inflation forecast targeting simplifies both implementation and monitoring of monetary policy the weight on output stabilization determines how quickly the inflation forecast is adjusted towards the inflation target money growth or exchange rate targeting is generally inferior than inflation targeting and leads to higher inflation variability commitment to target rules may be better than commitment to instrument rules

learning monetary policy and asset prices this working paper should not be reported as representing the view s of the imf the views expressed in this working paper are those of the author s and do not necessarily represent those of the imf or imf policy working papers describe research in progress by the author s and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

non standard monetary policy asset prices and macroprudential policy in a monetary union abstract this paper evaluates the interaction of non standard monetary measures and macroprudential policy in a monetary union by developing a two region model of the euro area ea and simulating the eurosystem s asset purchase programme app in each region some households are subject to a borrowing constraint and the local real estate is used as collateral our results are as follows first in one region a large loan to value ltv ratio can amplify the positive effect of the union wide app on domestic households borrowing second during the app implementation overly optimistic i e non fundamental expectations about local real estate prices would further augment households borrowing in that region third region specific macroprudential measures that stabilize private debt can counteract the effects of the optimistic expectations and favor a macroeconomic expansion driven only by fundamentals i e the app without the need to scale back the latter fourth both the app and the region specific macroprudential policy bring about a welfare improvement

putting risk in its proper place this paper examines preferences toward particular classes of lottery pairs we show how such concepts as prudence and temperance can be fully characterized by a preference relation over these lotteries if preferences are defined in an expected utility framework with differentiable utility the direction of preference for a particular class of lottery pairs is equivalent to signing the nth derivative of the utility function what makes our characterization appealing is its simplicity which seems particularly amenable to experimentation

the un importance of forward looking behavior in price specifications the seminal work of edmund s phelps 1978 john b taylor 1980 and guillermo a calvo 1983 developed forward looking models of price determination that imparted inertia to the price level these models incorporate expectations of future prices and excess demand by imposing constraints typically lag lead symmetry constraints that force future variables to enter the specification in this paper the author tests the empirical significance of future prices in specifications like those of taylor he finds that expectations of future prices are empirically unimportant in explaining price and inflation behavior however the dynamics of a model that includes a purely backward looking inflation specification differ substantially and not altogether pleasingly from those with a forward looking specification copyright 1997 by ohio state university press

the quest for prosperity without inflation abstract in recent years activist monetary policy rules responding to inflation and the level of economic activity have been advanced as a means of achieving effective output stabilization without inflation advocates of such policies suggest that their flexibility may yield substantial stabilization benefits while avoiding the excesses of overzealous discretionary fine tuning such as is thought to characterize the experience of the 1960s and 1970s in this study i present evidence suggesting that these conclusions are misguided using an estimated model i show that when informational limitations are properly accounted for activist policies would not have averted the great inflation but instead would have resulted in worse macroeconomic performance than the actual historical experience the problem can be attributed in large part to the counterproductive reliance of these policies on the output gap the analysis suggests that the dismal economic outcomes of the great inflation may have resulted from an unfortunate pursuit of activist policies in the face of bad measurement specifically overoptimistic assessments of the output gap associated with the productivity slowdown of the late 1960s and early 1970s

price level versus inflation targeting abstract this paper shows that price level targeting outperforms inflation targeting in the standard new keynesian model under the assumption that the central bank is forced to operate in an environment characterized by discretion in the benchmark case with no persistence in the shocks the commitment solution can be fully replicated intuitively price level targeting introduces history dependence and a stationary level of prices both of which are prominent features of the commitment solution

alternative approaches to comparative nth degree risk aversion this paper extends the three main approaches to comparative risk aversion the risk premium approach and the probability premium approach of pratt 1964 risk aversion in the small and in the large

leaning against boom bust cycles in credit and housing prices this paper studies the potential gains of monetary and macro prudential policies that lean against house price and credit cycles we rely on a model that features borrowers and savers and allows for over borrowing induced by news shock driven cycles we find that policy that responds to changes in financial variables is socially optimal considering the use of a single policy instrument both types of agents are better off when the interest rate optimally responds to credit growth when we allow for the implementation of both interest rate and ltv policies heterogeneity in the welfare implications is key in determining the optimal use of policy instruments the optimal policy for the borrowers is characterized by a ltv ratio that responds countercyclically to credit growth which most effectively stabilizes credit relative to gdp in contrast the optimal policy for the savers features a constant ltv ratio coupled with an interest rate response to credit growth news shock driven cycles account for most of the gains from a policy response to changes in financial variables

optimal monetary policy with capital and a financial accelerator abstract whether there is a trade off between price and financial stability is an open question this paper characterises optimal monetary policy analytically in a new keynesian economy with capital and a financial accelerator in addition to stabilising inflation there is an incentive to smooth volatility in the net worth of borrowers and this presents a trade off for monetary policy this trade off can be eliminated if policymakers can additionally choose an optimal transfer to borrowers enriching the model with fire sales and countercyclical bankruptcy costs there is also an incentive to smooth volatility in default and the capital stock an optimal transfer to borrowers is not sufficient to eliminate the trade off in that case with fewer instruments than targets optimal transfers are state contingent and countercyclical while monetary policy stabilises inflation

a note on the comparative statics approach to nth degree risk aversion jindapon and neilson 2007 propose a comparative statics approach to nth degree risk aversion they consider a decision problem where an agent incurs either a monetary or a utility cost to reduce the nth degree risk in his payoff they find that when the cost is monetary one agent always invests more in risk reduction than another if and only if the former is nth degree ross more risk averse than the latter but this is not the case when the cost takes the form of utility reductions we show that within an appropriately normalized risk reducing problem with a utility cost individuals relative optimal risk reducing efforts are also governed by the nth degree ross more risk aversion

should central banks respond to movements in asset prices in recent decades asset booms and busts have been important factors in macroeconomic fluctuations in both industrial and developing countries in light of this experience how if at all should central bankers respond to asset price volatility we have addressed this issue in previous work bernanke and gertler 1999 the context of our earlier study was the relatively new but increasingly popular monetary policy framework known as inflation targeting see e g bernanke and frederic mishkin 1997 in an inflation targeting framework publicly announced medium term inflation targets provide a nominal anchor for monetary policy while allowing the central bank some flexibility to help stabilize the real economy in the short run the inflation targeting approach gives a specific answer to the question of how central bankers should respond to asset prices changes in asset prices should affect monetary policy only to the extent that they affect the central bank s forecast of inflation to a first approximation once the predictive content of asset prices for inflation has been accounted for there should be no additional response of monetary policy to assetprice fluctuations in use now for about a decade inflationtargeting has generally performed well in practice however so far this approach has not often been stress tested by large swings in asset prices our earlier research employed simulations of a small calibrated macroeconomic model to examine how an inflation targeting policy defined as one in which the central bank s instrument interest rate responds primarily to changes in expected inflation might fare in the face of a boom and bust cycle in asset prices we found that an aggressive inflationtargeting policy rule in our simulations one in which the coefficient relating the instrument interest rate to expected inflation is 2 0 substantially stabilizes both output and inflation in scenarios in which a bubble in stock prices develops and then collapses as well as in scenarios in which technology shocks drive stock prices intuitively inflation targeting central banks automatically accommodate productivity gains that lift stock prices while offsetting purely speculative increases or decreases in stock values whose primary effects are through aggregate demand conditional on a strong policy response to expected inflation we found little if any additional gains from allowing an independent response of central bank policy to the level of asset prices in our view there are good reasons outside of our formal model to worry about attempts by central banks to influence asset prices including the fact that as history has shown the effects of such attempts on market psychology are dangerously unpredictable hence we concluded that inflationtargeting central banks need not respond to asset prices except insofar as they affect the inflation forecast in the spirit of recent work on robust control the exercises in our earlier paper analyzed the performance of policy rules in worst case discussants robert shiller yale university glenn rudebusch federal reserve bank of san francisco kenneth rogoff harvard university

reforming an asymmetric union on the virtues of dual tier capital taxation the tax competition for mobile capital in particular the reluctance of small countries to agree on measures of tax coordination has ongoing political and economic fallouts within europe we analyse the effects of introducing a two tier structure of capital taxation where the asymmetric member states of a union choose a common federal tax rate in the first stage and then non cooperatively set local tax rates in the second stage we show that this mechanism effectively reduces competition for mobile capital between the members of the union moreover it distributes the gains across the heterogeneous states in a way that yields a strict pareto improvement over a one tier system of purely local tax choices we also discuss the effects of diverging capital endowments within the union and capital flows to third countries

corporate tax elasticities a reader s guide to empirical findings corporate taxes exert a variety of effects on business behaviour a wealth of empirical evidence assesses the magnitude of these behavioural margins of taxation this article offers an up to date review and aims to provide common ground by computing for each distortion the semi elasticity of the corporate tax base we pay particular attention to international investment where it is not a priory clear whether marginal investment decisions or discrete locations are most important using anextension of the meta analysis of de mooij and ederveen 2003 we explore the extent to which existing studies reveal differences in effect size between the intensive and extensive margins of international investment

stronger measures of higher order risk attitudes this paper aims to extend the results by ross 1981 15 and by modica and scarsini 2005 13 to stochastic dominance of degree 4 and over specifically it is shown that ross approach can be extended to any order of risk attitude beyond the generalization proposed by modica and scarsini by means of sth degree increase in risk defined by ekern 1980 8 c 2010 elsevier inc all rights reserved

how low business tax rates attract mne activity municipality level evidence from germany most existing empirical evidences on the impact of profit taxation on multinational firm activity are based on cross country data one major drawback of such data is that countries differ not only with regard to taxes but also with other dimensions which might be hard to capture by means of observable characteristics we compile a database of more than 11 000 municipalities in germany to analyze the sensitivity of location decisions of foreign mnes in germany with respect to business tax rates which are levied directly by the municipalities we find that higher business tax rates have a negative effect on three alternative measures of mne activity after controlling for other determinants of firm location decisions the number of foreign mnes mne employment and mne fixed assets our results suggest that tax competition among regional entities for foreign investors is a game of a few in cross section instrumental variable regressions a one percent reduction of the municipal business tax rate equivalent to a decline by about 0 14 percentage points leads to an increase in the number of legally independent foreign owned firms by about 0 45 the average municipality would have to reduce its business tax rate by about 2 2 percentage points or 15 from its average level to attract one foreign mne hence municipalities need to be attractive in other dimensions to be able to use tax instruments to attract foreign firms at the margin

new keynesian economics and the phillips curve models with sticky prices are an important part of new keynesian economics the author shows that several of the new keynesian models imply a formulation that is similar to the expectations augmented phillips curve of milton friedman and edmund phelps he then presents new estimates of the new keynesian phillips curve the author uses two proxies for price expectations survey based measures and an econometric based measure originally developed by bennett mccallum 1976 overall the results are consistent with the model but the survey based results are more precise suggesting that the surveys may be better measures of actual expectations copyright 1995 by ohio state university press

foreign direct investment in a world of multiple taxes abstract governments impose multiple taxes on foreign investors though studies of the effect of tax policy on the location of foreign direct investment fdi focus almost exclusively on corporate income taxes this paper examines the impact of indirect non income taxes on fdi by american multinational firms using affiliate level data that permit the introduction of controls for parent companies and affiliate industries indirect tax burdens significantly exceed the foreign income tax obligations of foreign affiliates of american companies estimates imply that 10 higher local indirect tax rates are associated with 7 1 lower affiliate assets which is similar to the effect of 10 higher income tax rates affiliate output falls by 2 9 as indirect taxes rise by 10 while higher income taxes have more modest output effects high corporate income tax rates depress capital labor ratios and profit rates of foreign affiliates whereas high indirect tax rates do not these patterns reveal the impact of indirect taxes and suggest the mechanisms by which direct and indirect taxes affect fdi

monetary policy and asset prices with belief driven fluctuations abstract we present a heterogeneous agents new keynesian model subject to a cost channel of monetary policy transmission constant turnover between long time traders and newcomers in market activities combined with restricted trading opportunities introduces a feedback from the stock market to real activity making stock prices non redundant for the business cycle we show that strict inflation targeting can lead to equilibrium indeterminacy even if the policy rule satisfies the taylor principle a belief driven shock to stock price generates relative volatilities of key financial variables which are very close to what is observed in u s data this result hints to the possibility that the financial instability witnessed since the mid to late 1990s was the result of waves of rational exuberance and pessimism in financial markets our analysis suggests that a mild response to stock prices in the central bank s policy rule can restore equilibrium determinacy and therefore rule out non fundamental volatility

the monetary utility premium and interpersonal comparisons the utility premium is generally defined as the pain or reduction in expected utility caused by an nth degree risk increase where n 2 while it is a very useful concept in understanding a decision maker s choice in uncertain situations the utility premium is not interpersonally comparable this note shows that the monetary utility premium the utility premium divided by the expected marginal utility at the random starting wealth is interpersonally comparable and the comparison is characterized by ross more risk aversion of the corresponding degree

do complicated tax systems prevent foreign direct investment the negative relationship between tax rates and fdi is well known this paper looks at how complexity of the tax system affects fdi fulfilling tax requirements can be time consuming and this implies a cost for more complex tax systems alternatively complexity may provide opportunities to reduce the overall tax bill we find that measures of tax complexity have a significant inhibiting effect on the presence of fdi for a country pair but have little impact on the level of fdi flows a 10 reduction in tax complexity is comparable to a one percentage point reduction in effective corporate tax rates

unobserved tax avoidance and the tax elasticity of fdi abstract this paper investigates the tax responsiveness of multinational firms investment decisions in foreign countries distinguishing firms that are able to avoid taxes avoiders from those that are not non avoiders from a theoretical point of view the tax responsiveness of firms crucially depends on this distinction empirically however a firm s ability to avoid profit taxes is inherently unobservable to the researcher to address this problem we use a finite mixture modeling approach which allows us to distinguish avoiders from non avoiders stochastically from a mixture of distributions of the two types of firms using panel data on the universe of foreign affiliates of german multinational firms over the years 1999 2010 we find that investments of tax avoiders do not respond to host country profit taxes at all while those of non avoiders do about 11 of the affiliates are estimated to be able to avoid taxes these investments account for about 58 of the stock of foreign fixed assets held by german multinational firms abroad a one percentage point increase in the statutory corporate profit tax rate of a host country is found to reduce the fixed assets of non avoiders in that host country by 0 81

health and portfolio choices a diffidence approach the effect of health status on portfolio decisions has been extensively studied from an empirical viewpoint in this paper we propose a theoretical model of individuals choice of financial assets under bivariate utility functions depending on wealth and health our approach makes an extensive use of the diffidence theorem we establish the conditions under which the share of wealth held in risky assets falls as 1 individuals health status deteriorates and 2 individuals health status becomes risky these conditions are shown to be related to the behavior of the intensities of correlation aversion and of cross prudence as wealth increases

inflation targeting learning and q volatility in small open economies this paper examines the welfare implications of managing asset price with consumer price inflation targeting by monetary authorities who have to learn the laws of motion for both inflation rates the central bank can reduce the volatility of consumption as well as improve welfare more effectively if it adopts state contingent taylor rules aimed at inflation and q growth targets in this learning environment however under perfect model certainty pure inflation targeting dominates combined consumer and asset price inflation targeting

inflation expectations consumption and the lower bound micro evidence from a large multi country survey abstract using a large multi country survey and new pseudo panel dataset we investigate the spending response of consumers to their beliefs about future inflation the analysis exploits the deviation of expected inflation from the currently perceived inflation rate a choice motivated by local approximation of the traditional euler equation this helps control for unobserved heterogeneity and highlights a positive and economically relevant spending response that is generalised in the population and across countries also a stronger positive response is observed when the lower bound is binding thus lending credence to the stabilisation properties of higher inflation expectations during such episodes

substituting one risk increase for another a method for measuring risk aversion abstract this paper defines the rate of substitution of one stochastic change to a random variable for another it then focuses on the case where one of these changes is an nth degree risk increase and the other is an mth degree risk increase where n m 1 the paper shows that the rate of substitution for these two risk increases can be used to provide a broader definition and two additional characterizations of the nth degree ross more risk averse partial order the implications for local intensity measures of nth degree risk aversion are also examined the analysis organizes the existing results as well as generates new ones

heterogeneous beliefs and housing market boom bust cycles abstract this paper presents a business cycle model capturing the stylized features of housing market boom bust cycles in developed countries the model implies that over optimism of mortgage borrowers generates housing market boom bust cycles if mortgage borrowers are credit constrained and savers do not share their optimism this result holds without price stickiness if price stickiness is introduced into the model then the model replicates a low policy interest rate during a housing boom as an endogenous reaction to a low inflation rate given a taylor rule thus monetary easing observed during housing booms are consistent with the presence of over optimism causing boom bust cycles

does the fed act gradually a var analysis abstract the tendency for changes in the federal funds rate to be implemented gradually has been considered evidence of an interest rate smoothing objective for the federal reserve this paper investigates whether gradual funds rate movements can be explained by the dynamic structure of the economy and the uncertainty surrounding that structure without recourse to including an ad hoc interest rate smoothing argument in the fed s objective function in the absence of parameter uncertainty the optimal policy involves more aggressive movements in the funds rate than observed parameter uncertainty however limits the responsiveness of the interest rate as a result the optimal policy under parameter uncertainty can account for a considerable portion of the gradualism observed

rethinking monetary policy after the crisis abstract this lecture examines how the recent global financial crisis changes our thinking about how monetary policy should be conducted it starts with a discussion of the science and practice of monetary policy before the crisis and then uses the lessons from the crisis to argue how the practice of monetary policy should be rethought along six dimensions flexible inflation targeting response to asset price bubbles dichotomy between monetary policy and financial stability policy risk management and gradualism fiscal dominance and forward guidance

tax competition as a cause of falling corporate income tax rates a survey of empirical literature since the mid 1980s tax rates on corporate income have declined in most industrialized countries tax competition between countries for mobile capital has frequently been mentioned as an explanation for this development a vast empirical literature dealing with tax competition for mobile capital has emerged this paper categorizes and summarizes the existing empirical studies on this issue particular focus is placed on the isolation of the substantive implications the quantitative study outcomes convey given the empirical evidence surveyed it appears that tax rates indeed decline due to tax competition between countries and in particular due to competition for profits in addition to summarizing the substantive implications of the existing empirical literature the paper addresses the question of whether the existing studies can convincingly isolate tax competition as a driver of falling corporate income tax rates

the social cost of near rational investment abstract we show that the stock market may fail to aggregate information even if it appears to be efficient and that the resulting decrease in the information content of prices may drastically red

some stronger measures of risk aversion in the small and the large with applications the arrow pratt measures of risk aversion for von neumann morgenstern utility functions have become workhorses for analyzing problems in the microeconomics of uncertainty they have been used to characterize the qualitative properties of demand in insurance and asset markets to examine the properties of risk taking in taxation models and to study the interaction between risk and life cycle savings problems to name just a few applications equally importantly they have generated the linear risk tolerance class of utility functions which has provided canonical examples in such diverse areas as portfolio theory and the theory of teams despite these successes there have been a number of areas for which the results have been weaker than hoped it is natural to use the risk aversion measures to compare the behavior of individuals in risky choice situations for example consider the individual portfolio choice problem in a two asset world with a riskless asset and a risky asset if individual a has a uniformly higher arrow pratt coefficient of risk aversion than individual b then b will always choose a portfolio combination with more wealth invested in the risky asset but suppose that both assets are risky now there is no obvious sense in which the more risk averse individual can be said to hold a less risky portfolio but it seems strange that such a simple alteration should destroy the analytics which support the basic intuition similarly consider the basic insurance problem if one individual a is more risk averse than another b in the arrow pratt sense it follows that a will pay a larger premium to insure against a random loss than will b typically though an individual evaluates partial rather than total insurance that is only some gambles can be insured against and others must be retained in this case even when the gambles which are retained are independent from those which are insured it is no longer true that the individual whose arrow pratt measure of risk aversion is higher will pay a larger insurance premium the situation is no better when we consider comparative statics exercises for a single individual decreasing absolute risk aversion in the sense of arrow and

should central banks burst bubbles some microeconomic issues anti bubble policy is examined in a finite horizon greater fool bubble model with rational agents asymmetric information and short sales constraints this permits the use of standard tools of welfare economics to analyse bubble policies policy is modelled as deflating overpriced assets by revealing information about this overpricing if the central bank is following such a policy then the market interprets inaction as an implicit endorsement of asset prices which raises these prices also the central bank can deflate overpriced assets even if it has no informational advantage over any investors about this overpricing however unless it has such an informational advantage a bubble bursting rule may only make things worse

the perils of nominal targets a monetary authority can be committed to pursuing an inflation price level or nominal gdp target yet systematically fail to achieve the prescribed goal constrained by the zero lower bound on the policy rate the monetary authority is unable to implement its objectives when private sector expectations stray far enough from the target low inflation expectations become self fulfilling resulting in an additional markov equilibrium in which the monetary authority falls short of the nominal target average output is below its efficient level and the policy rate is typically low introducing a stabilization goal for long term nominal rates can implement a unique markov equilibrium without fully compromising stabilization policy

delegating optimal monetary policy inertia abstract in a forward looking business cycle model central banks can achieve the timeless optimal commitment equilibrium even in the absence of a commitment technology if they are delegated with an objective function that is different from the societal one the paper develops a general linear quadratic method to solve for the optimal delegation parameters that generate the optimal amount of inertia in a markov perfect equilibrium and studies the optimal design of some policy regimes that are nested within this framework the squared optimal targeting rule inflation output gap growth and nominal income growth targeting and inflation and output gap contracts

targeting nominal income growth or inflation within a simple new keynesian model emphasizing forward looking behavior of private agents i evaluate optimal nominal income growth targeting versus optimal inflation targeting when the economy is mainly subject to shocks that do not involve monetary policy trade offs for society inflation targeting is preferable otherwise nominal income growth targeting may be superior because it induces inertial policy making which improves the inflation output gap trade off somewhat paradoxically inflation targeting may be relatively less favorable the more society dislikes inflation and the more persistent are the effects of inflation generating shocks jel e42 e52 f58

revisiting the uncertain unit root in gdp and cpi testing for non linear trend reversion we test for the presence of a unit root in u s gdp and cpi allowing for non linear trend reversion under the alternative hypothesis in contrast to most previous results we find evidence in favour of trend stationarity for both variables

soft landing in a markov switching economy abstract we analyse the monetary policy implications of boom bust cycles in asset prices using a markov switching rational expectations model in our simulations when a bubble bursts the taylor rule fails to achieve a soft landing contrary to the optimal policy

the utility premium of friedman and savage comparative risk aversion and comparative prudence we show that the utility premium of friedman and savage can be used to explain comparative risk aversion and comparative prudence more precisely we show that the greater the risk aversion measure the greater a risk s utility premium normalized by the marginal utility and that the greater the prudence measure the greater the utility premium for disaggregating a certain loss of wealth and a zero mean risk normalized by the utility function s second derivative

nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions this paper presents a new nonlinear time series model that captures a post recession bounce back in the level of aggregate output while a number of studies have examined this type of business cycle asymmetry using recession based dummy variables and threshold models we relate the bounce back effect to an endogenously estimated unobservable markov switching state variable when the model is applied to us real gdp we find that the markov switching regimes are closely related to nber dated recessions and expansions also the markov switching form of nonlinearity is statistically significant and the bounce back effect is large implying that the permanent effects of recessions are small meanwhile having accounted for the bounce back effect we find little or no remaining serial correlation in the data suggesting that our model is sufficient to capture the defining features of us business cycle dynamics when the model is applied to other countries we find larger permanent effects of recessions copyright 2005 john wiley sons ltd

the determinants of foreign direct investment in transition economies a meta analysis in this paper we conduct a meta analysis of studies that empirically examine the relationship between economic transformation and foreign direct investment fdi performance in central and eastern europe and the former soviet union over the past quarter century more specifically we synthesise the empirical evidence reported in previous studies that deal with the determinants of fdi in transition economies focusing on the impacts of transition factors we also perform meta regression analysis to specify determinant factors of the heterogeneity among the relevant studies and the presence of publication selection bias we find that the existing literature reports a statistically significant non zero effect as a whole and a genuine effect is confirmed for some fdi determinants beyond the publication selection bias

the growth effects of tax rates in the oecd this paper explores the merits of macro and micro based tax rate measures within an open economy fiscal policy and growth model using annual data for 15 oecd countries we find statistically small non robust long run growth effects of macro based average tax rates on capital income and consumption but some evidence for average labor income tax effects changes in micro marginal income tax rates at both the personal and corporate levels yield statistically robust gdp responses of modest size both domestic and foreign corporate taxes appear relevant in general tax effects on gdp operate largely via factor productivity rather than factor accumulation

precautionary saving in the small and in the large the theory of precautionary saving is shown to be isomorphic to the arrow pratt theory of risk aversion making possible the application of a large body of knowledge about risk aversion to precautionary saving and more generally to the theory of optimal choice under risk in particular a measure of the strength of the precautionary saving motive analogous to the arrow pratt measure of risk aversion is used to establish a number of new propositions about precautionary saving and to give a new interpretation of the dreze modigliani substitution effect copyright 1990 by the econometric society

the information technology revolution and the stock market technological progress comes in waves the british industrial revolution 1760 1850 ushered in cort s puddling and rolling process for making iron crompton s mule for spinning cotton and the watt steam engine the second industrial revolution 1890 1930 witnessed the rise of electricity the internal combustion engine and the chemical industry the birth of information technology it may herald the start of a third industrial revolution a new technology or product is often developed by the single entrepreneur who initially finds it hard to get funds develop the product and find customers but if the product is good customers eventually line up and investors flock in other firms then move in to make the product and may drive the innovator out or acquire him whether he reaches the initial public offering ipo stage or is acquired by a listed firm though it takes time for the innovator to add value to the stock market indeed the innovation may at first reduce the market s value because some firms usually large or old will cling to old technologies that have lost their momentum figure 1 plots the market value of u s equity relative to gdp this paper argues that a the market declined in the late 1960 s because it felt that the old technologies either had lost their momentum or would give way to it and that b it innovators boosted the stock market s value only in the 1980 s if the stock market provides a forecast of future events then the recent dramatic upswing represents a rosy estimate about growth in future profits for the economy this translates into a forecast of higher output and productivity growth holding other things equal such as capital s share