the fisher hypothesis and the forecastability and persistence of inflation abstract for the period 1860 to 1939 the simple correlation of the u s commercial paper rate with the contemporaneous inflation rate is 0 17 the corresponding correlation for the period 1950 to 1979 is 0 71 this paper attributes this apparent change in the fisher relation to differences in the stochastic process of inflation rather than a change in any structural relationship between interest rates and expected inflation contrary to recent claims in the literature there is little evidence of inflation non neutrality in data from the pre world war i period

inflation announcements and social dynamics this paper investigates the eectiveness of central bank communication when rms have heterogeneous ination expectations that are updated through social dynamics the bank s credibility evolves with these dynamics and determines how well its announcements anchor expectations we show that trying to eliminate high ination by abruptly introducing a low ination target can lead to short term overshooting

rational heuristics expectations and behaviors in evolving economies with heterogeneous interacting agents we analyze the individual and macroeconomic impacts of heterogeneous expectations and action rules within an agent based model populated by heterogeneous interacting firms agents have to cope with a complex evolving economy characterized by deep uncertainty resulting from technical change imperfect information coordination hurdles and structural breaks in these circumstances we find that neither individual nor macroeconomic dynamics improve when agents replace myopic expectations with less naive learning rules our results suggest that fast and frugal robust heuristics may not be a second best option but rather rational responses in complex and changing macroeconomic environments jel c63 d8 e32 e6 o4

the inexorable and mysterious tradeoff between inflation and unemployment this paper discusses the short run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment although this tradeoff remains a necessary building block of business cycle theory economists have yet to provide a completely satisfactory explanation for it according to the consensus view among central bankers and monetary economists a contractionary monetary shock raises unemployment at least temporarily and leads to a delayed and gradual fall in inflation standard dynamic models of price adjustment however cannot explain this pattern of responses reconciling the consensus view about the effects of monetary policy with models of price adjustment remains an outstanding puzzle for business cycle theorists several years ago i gave myself a peculiar assignment i decided to try to summarise all of economics in ten simply stated principles the purpose of this task was to introduce students to the economic way of thinking in the first chapter of my textbook principles of economics i figured if god could boil all of moral philosophy down to ten commandments i should be able to do much the same with economic science most of the ten principles i chose were microeconomic and hard to argue with they involved the importance of tradeoffs marginal analysis the benefits of trade market efficiency market failure and so on i allocated the last three principles to macroeconomics the first of these was a country s standard of living depends on its ability to produce goods and services which i viewed as the foundation of all growth theory the second was prices rise when the government prints too much money which i took to be the essence of classical monetary theory the last of my ten principles is the subject of today s lecture society faces a short run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment perhaps not surprisingly this statement turned out to be controversial when my publisher sent out the manuscript for review a few readers objected

disinflation with imperfect credibility abstract this paper presents a theory of the real effects of disinflation as in new keynesian models price adjustment iis staggered across firms as in new classical models credibility is imperfect the monetary authority may not complete a promised disinflation the combination of imperfect credibility and staggering yields more plausible results than either of these assumptions alone in particular an announced disinflation reduces expected output if credibility is sufficiently low

disagreement in expectations and the credibility of monetary authorities in the brazilian inflation targeting regime abstract based on market expectations reported by the central bank of brazil for the selic interest rate the ipca inflation the exchange rate brl usd and the growth rate of industrial production for four different forecasting horizons this work analyzes the term structures of disagreement in expectations regarding the future values of these variables it also investigates the driving factors of disagreement paying special attention to the influence of monetary authorities credibility an extensive regression analysis shows that the levels of the term structures of disagreement are negatively related to the output gap although this result is not very robust and that the levels of the term structures of disagreement in expectations about the ipca inflation rate and the selic interest rate have a strong negative relationship with central bankers credibility this relationship is positive in the case of the growth rate of industrial production

the role of cognitive limitations and heterogeneous expectations for aggregate production and credit cycle abstract the behavioural model of de grauwe and macchiarelli 2015 is extended to include financial frictions on the aggregate supply side the result is a tight and sustained feedback loop between animal spirits on one hand and supply of credit capital purchase and production on the other during phases of optimism credit is abundant access to production capital is easy the cash in advance constraint is lax risks are undervalued and production is booming upon reversal in market sentiment the contraction is quick and deep moreover the model is capable of replicating the stylized fact of a long and sustained simultaneous growth in credit production and asset prices observed in the us since mid1990 s lastly the behavioural model does a decent job in matching us data including multiple supply side relations including capital firm credit and inflation interest rate

information rigidities inflation perceptions and the media lessons from the euro cash changeover the objective of theoretical models of information rigidities is to capture the fact that people are constrained in their ability to acquire and process all available information given that most people obtain their information about the economy from the media press coverage of the economy may exert an influence on peoples attitudes this paper tests for this influence by examining consumers inflation perceptions in the aftermath of the euro cash changeover which serves as a natural experiment using a new data set that quantifies the intensity and tone of media reports we document that media reporting has had a statistically significant and economically meaningful impact on inflation perceptions and contributed to their sharp rise in the aftermath of the euro cash changeover and to the divergence between inflation perceptions and actual inflation rates jel e53 d83

the cross country implications of alternative climate policies abstract because of worldwide growing concerns about global climate change great interest has been expressed in the potential of alternative climate policies to reduce global carbon emissions in this paper we compare cross country implications of alternative climate policies including unilateral and multilateral climate policies our main findings are as follows firstly there are large differences in cross country effects of alternative unilateral climate policies when the same given carbon emission reductions are achieved in each abating country respectively meanwhile cross border externalities undermine efficiency of unilateral climate policies secondly there are significant differences in cross country implications of alternative multilateral climate policies when the same global emission reductions are allocated in several different ways among abating countries thirdly it is difficult to reach a stable global climate treaty since any abating country has the incentive to argue for small carbon emission reductions finally multilateral climate policies can reduce the negative impacts of cross border externalities but cannot cure all cross border externalities looking ahead it will be a great policy challenge for the world to reduce carbon emissions in a cost effective way

models of inflation expectations formation a comparison of household and economist forecasts comment in the third section of his paper models of inflation expectations formation a comparison of household and economist forecasts gramlich 1983 presents statistics suggesting that two survey measures of inflation expectations are biased and inefficient in this comment we show that the main results presented in his table 1 are generated using a misspecified model when the specification error is corrected we find that the michigan survey of household inflation expectations passes the standard tests for unbiasedness and weak tests for efficiency 1 however there remains doubt about the properties of the inflation expectation series derived from the livingston survey of professional economists 2 the particular results we review were presumably generated from ordinary leastsquares ols estimation of the following equation equation 2 in gramlich

expectations as a source of macroeconomic persistence evidence from survey expectations in a dynamic macro model abstract embedding survey expectations in a standard dsge model helps to identify key slope parameters in standard relationships dramatically reduces the need for lagged dependent variables often motivated by price indexation and habit formation and obviates the need for autocorrelated structural shocks in the key equations formal statistical tests demonstrate that much of the persistence in aggregate data is better accounted for by slow moving expectations rather than by habits indexation and autocorrelated structural shocks

direct evidence on sticky information from the revision behavior of professional forecasters we provide direct evidence on the sticky information model of mankiw and reis 2002 by examining how frequently individual professional forecasters revise their forecasts we draw interest rate and unemployment rate forecasts from the monthly wall street journal surveys conducted between 2003 and 2013 consistent with the sticky information model we find that forecasters frequently leave their forecasts unrevised but find evidence that revision frequency increases following larger changes in the information set we also find revision frequencies became more sensitive to new information after the 2008 financial crisis but only weak evidence that frequent revisers forecast more accurately

sticky information phillips curves european evidence we estimate the sticky information phillips curve model of mankiw and reis 2002 using survey expectations of professional forecasters from four major european economies our estimates imply that in ation expectations in france germany and the united kingdom are updated about once a year in italy about once each six months

controlling stochastic pollution events through liability rules some evidence from ocs leasing under the ocs lands act firms are strictly liable for damages from oil spills to the extent that this liability rule causes firms to internalize environmental risks incentives for damage avoidance behavior are provided using data from the 1979 georges bank lease sale we use a robust estimation technique to test the hypothesis that potential environmental costs are reflected in bids for ocs leases the results indicate a substantial response to environmental risks recognizing reduced rents we estimate that total high bids have declined by 20 because of firms perceptions of environmental risks the results suggest that liability rules have considerable potential in controlling stochastic pollution events

inflation expectations in turkey learning to be rational turkey implemented an ambitious restructuring of the economy in the past several years including the adoption of inflation targeting along with a floating exchange rate regime inflation came down from almost triple digits to single digits between 2001 and 2005 this particular episode of the turkish economy sets a genuine case study for investigating the possible changes in the behaviour of inflation expectations upon a regime shift accordingly this study analyses inflation expectations in turkey focusing especially on the post 2001 transition phase we first conduct classical tests of unbiasedness and efficiency using aggregate survey data between august 2001 and october 2007 to get a statistical benchmark for rationality we find that classical tests reject full rationality hypothesis for all series except next month s consumer price index cpi inflation expectations then we carry out time varying parameter tvp estimates based on a kalman filter to see how the coefficients in the classical tes

global energy subsidies an analytical taxonomy governments around the world have pledged to eliminate or sharply reduce subsidies to energy firms in order to increase economic efficiency and reduce environmental externalities yet definitions of subsidies vary widely and as a result estimates of their global magnitude vary by orders of magnitude i review why energy subsidies are so difficult to define and measure i show why some non standard measures are very poor proxies for subsidy costs and in fact may vary inversely with them in particular recent attempts to treat unpriced externalities as subsidies yield especially misleading results in general energy subsidies as conventionally understood do exist but only comprise a small portion of some very large recently reported estimates the bulk of which are indirect measures that may have little connection with actual costs to governments or allocational inefficiencies

survey measures of expected u s inflation of real interest rates and cash flows for decisions concerning investment expenditures international capital flows and exchange rate movements hinge in large part on expected real yield differentials across countries the federal reserve needs reliable measures of expected inflation to formulate and gauge the thrust of monetary policy in fact inflation expectations have become more important to the fed given the diminished stability of the link between the monetary aggregates and gdp expenditures since the early 1980s and the greater role which has been thrust upon expected real short term interest rates in the implementation of federal reserve policy the issue of rationality of inflation expectations that is the extent to which agents form expectations without making systematic mistakes in their beliefs about what inflation will be is important if inflation expectations are formed rationally labor and financial markets will strongly tend to neutralize the potential redistributive effects of inflation over time financial capital will flow efficiently within and across national borders moreover some of the stronger claims of new classical macroeconomics like the claim that only unexpected monetary policy actions will

international evidence on sticky consumption growth abstract this paper estimates the degree of stickiness in aggregate consumption growth sometimes interpreted as reflecting consumption habits for thirteen advanced economies we find that after controlling for measurement error consumption growth has a high degree of autocorrelation with a stickiness parameter of about 0 7 on average across countries the sticky consumption growth model outperforms the random walk model of hall 1978 and typically fits the data better than the popular mankiw 1989 model though in a few countries the sticky consumption growth and campbell mankiw models work about equally well

fuel riots definition evidence and policy implications for a new type of energy related conflict abstract fuel riots are a distinct type of energy related conflict we provide the first fuel riots database and explore their social economic and environmental drivers the analysis demonstrates links between fuel riots and high international crude oil prices in countries characterised by weak state capacity deficient governance fuel scarcity and poor economic performance we suggest a potential causal pathway for fuel riots when international fuel prices spike net fuel importing countries bear higher costs if these countries are politically unstable and their government inefficient the likelihood of fuel riots is high wealthier countries can absorb price increases and maintain subsidies as opposed to poorer societies where fuel riots are more likely our findings demonstrate the role of state capacity and socio economic conditions in enabling conflict and will inform policy by identifying fertile ground for fuel riots i e societies likely to be affected by increases in fuel prices due to scarcity and climate action such as carbon taxes we propose that policies which better control international prices and action designed to reduce political instability in vulnerable countries are key to preventing fuel riots fuel subsidy reform must anticipate popular opposition and mitigate the impact upon vulnerable populations in order to reduce the likelihood of instability and minimise hardship

slow information diffusion and the inertial behavior of durable consumption this paper studies the aggregate dynamics of durable and nondurable consumption under slow information diffusion sid due to noisy observations and learning within the permanent income framework we show that sid can significantly improve the model s predictions on the joint behavior of income durable consumption and nondurable consumption at the aggregate level specifically we find that sid can significantly improve the model s predictions for i smoothness in durable and nondurable consumption ii autocorrelation of durable consumption and iii contemporaneous correlation between durable and nondurable consumption furthermore we discuss that incorporating a fixed cost into our sid model does a better job of reproducing the infrequent adjustments of durable consumption at the individual level and the slow adjustments at the aggregate level

information rigidity and the expectations formation process a simple framework and new facts we propose a new approach to test the full information rational expectations hypothesis which can identify whether rejections of the null arise from irrationality or limited information this approach quantifies the economic significance of departures from the null by quantifying the underlying degree of information rigidity applying this approach to u s and international data of professional forecasters and other agents yields pervasive evidence consistent with models of imperfect information furthermore the proposed approach sheds new light on policies such as inflation targeting and those leading to the great moderation affecting expectations finally we document evidence of state dependence in the expectations formation process

man bites dog business cycles the newsworthiness of an event is partly determined by how unusual it is and this paper investigates the business cycle implications of this fact signals that are more likely to be observed after unusual events may increase both uncertainty and disagreement among agents in a simple business cycle model such signals can explain why we observe i occasional large changes in macro economic aggregate variables without a correspondingly large change in underlying fundamentals ii persistent periods of high macroeconomic volatility and iii a positive correlation between absolute changes in macro variables and the cross sectional dispersion of survey expectations

collective bargaining firm heterogeneity and unemployment abstract we compare labor market outcomes under firm level and sector level bargaining in a one sector mortensen pissarides economy with firm specific productivity shocks our main theoretical results are two fold first unemployment is lower under firm level bargaining due both to a lower job destruction rate and a higher job finding rate key to this result is the interplay between firm heterogeneity and wage compression under sector level bargaining second introducing efficient opting out of sector level agreements suffices to bring unemployment down to its level under decentralized bargaining

carbon pricing effectiveness and equity abstract the 2015 paris agreement adopted the goal of limiting the rise in global mean temperature to 1 5 2 c above pre industrial levels carbon pricing can play a key role in meeting this objective a cap and permit system or alternatively a carbon tax indexed to a fixed emission reduction trajectory not only can spur cost effective mitigation and cost reducing innovation but also crucially can ensure that emissions are held to the target level the carbon prices needed to meet this constraint are likely to be considerably higher however than existing prices and conventional measures of the social cost of carbon this poses issues of distributional equity and political sustainability that can be addressed by universal dividends funded by carbon revenues

predictability of output growth and inflation a multi horizon survey approach we develop an unobserved components approach to study surveys of forecasts containing multiple forecast horizons under the assumption that forecasters optimally update their beliefs about past current and future state variables as new information arrives we use our model to extract information on the degree of predictability of the state variable and the importance of measurement errors in the observables empirical estimates of the model are obtained using survey forecasts of annual gdp growth and inflation in the united states with forecast horizons ranging from 1 to 24 months and the model is found to closely match the joint realization of forecast errors at different horizons our empirical results suggest that professional forecasters face severe measurement error problems for gdp growth in real time while this is much less of a problem for inflation moreover inflation exhibits greater persistence and thus is predictable at longer horizons than gdp growth and the persistent component of bot

a multivariate analysis of forecast disagreement confronting models of disagreement with survey data abstract this paper documents multivariate forecast disagreement among professional forecasters and discusses implications for models of heterogeneous expectation formation disagreement varies over time and is positively correlated with general economic uncertainty the degree to which individual forecasters disagree with the average forecast tends to persist over time models of heterogeneous expectation formation can be modified by introducing heterogeneous signal to noise ratios to match this feature furthermore disagreement about correlations of different macroeconomic variables is high on average in general multivariate forecast data can be used more effectively than it has been to estimate models with heterogeneous expectations and to test the mechanisms used to generate disagreement in these models

economics of energy subsidy reforms in bangladesh abstract as in many countries around the world subsidies to energy in bangladesh impose a significant fiscal burden with benefits that disproportionately accrue to high income households using a computable general equilibrium model this study investigates the economy wide impacts of the removal of direct subsidies in the electricity sector and indirect subsidy in natural gas in bangladesh the study finds that the removal of energy subsidies would be beneficial to the economy and would increase gdp the magnitude of the economic impact depends on how the budgetary savings from the removal of electricity subsidy and the increased revenues due to the removal of indirect subsidies to natural gas are reallocated to the economy recycling the savings or the new revenues to fund investment would benefit the country most followed by the case of utilizing them to fund cuts in income taxes and finally to fund cuts in indirect taxes while the reallocation of budgetary savings to households through lump sum transfers is found inferior to other recycling options considered it could be the preferred from the distributional perspective however further analysis is needed to confirm this

forward guidance and the role of central bank credibility under heterogeneous beliefs abstract this paper studies the macroeconomic effects of central bank forward guidance when central bank credibility is endogenous we take a stylized new keynesian model with an occasionally binding effective lower bound constraint on nominal interest rates and heterogeneous and boundedly rational households central bank forecasts follow a bivariate var not taking into account the time variation in the distribution of aggregate expectations in this framework we extend the central bank s toolkit to allow for the publication of its own forecasts delphic guidance and the commitment to a future path of the nominal interest rate odyssean guidance we find that both delphic and odyssean forward guidance increase the likelihood of recovery from a liquidity trap even though odyssean guidance alone appears more powerful in inducing recovery we find it to increase ex post macroeconomic volatility and thus reduce welfare

is the central bank s publication of economic forecasts influential abstract we examine how a central bank s economic forecasts affect forecasts by professional forecasters and vice versa results show that while central bank forecasts are not significantly influenced by those of professional forecasters the latter are however notably affected by the former

when is sticky information more information this paper uses sectoral data to study survey based balance indices designed to capture changes in the business cycle in real time the empirical framework recognizes that when answering survey questions regarding their firm s output respondents potentially rely on infrequently updated information the analysis then suggests that their answers reflect notable information lags on the order of 71 2 months on average moreover information stickiness implies that noisy output fluctuations will be attenuated in survey answers and consequently helps explain why balance indices successfully track business cycles conversely in an environment populated by fully informed identical firms as in the standard rbc framework for example balance indices instead become degenerate finally information regarding changes in aggregate output tends to be sectorally concentrated the paper therefore illustrates how this feature of the data may be relevant for the construction of balance indices

is inflation sticky abstract new keynesian sticky price models predict that monetary policy can affect real variables however they also predict that inflation can be reduced without depressing output or employment in fact bringing down inflation is costly presenting a challenge to the new keynesian model two departures from the new keynesian model predict costly disinflation one assumes sticky inflation rather than sticky prices while the other assumes less than perfectly rational expectations taking into account information from surveys of inflation expectations i find the evidence suggests that inflation is not sticky and that inflation expectations are less than perfectly rational

implications of rational inattention abstract a constraint that actions can depend on observations only through a communication channel with finite shannon capacity is shown to be able to play a role very similar to that of a signal extraction problem or an adjustment cost in standard control problems the resulting theory looks enough like familiar dynamic rational expectations theories to suggest that it might be useful and practical while the implications for policy are different enough to be interesting

inflation expectations as a policy tool abstract we assess the prospects for central banks using inflation expectations as a policy tool for stabilization purposes we review recent work on how expectations of agents are formed and how they affect their economic decisions empirical evidence suggests that inflation expectations of households and firms affect their actions but the underlying mechanisms remain unclear especially for firms two additional limitations prevent policy makers from being able to actively manage inflation expectations first available surveys of firms expectations are systematically deficient which can only be addressed through the creation of large nationally representative surveys of firms second neither households nor firms expectations respond much to monetary policy announcements in low inflation environments we provide suggestions for how monetary policy makers could pierce this veil of inattention through new communication strategies as well as the potential pitfalls to trying to do so

inattentive consumers and international business cycles this paper presents and studies the properties of a sticky information exchange rate model where consumers and producers update their information sets infrequently introducing inattentive consumers has important implications through a mechanism resembling the limited participation models exchange rate volatility observed in the data can be addressed for reasonable values of risk aversion the model generates more persistence in output consumption and employment which brings us closer to the data impulse responses to monetary shocks are hump shaped consistent with the empirical evidence forecast errors of inattentive consumers provide a channel to reduce the correlation of relative consumption and real exchange rate the decline in the correlation is quantitatively small for our benchmark model model generates a substantial amount of consumer forecast errors when producers are attentive and productivity shocks are persistent this specification results in a large decline of the correlation of real exchange rate and relative consumption due to consumer inattentiveness when trade elasticity is set to values at the low end of macro estimates or at higher values consistent with sectoral estimates the correlation is in the negative territory with inattentive consumers

inattentive professional forecasters abstract using the ecb survey of professional forecasters to characterize expectations at the micro level we emphasize two new facts forecasters i fail to systematically update their forecasts and ii disagree even when updating it is moreover found that forecasters have predictable forecast errors these facts are qualitatively supportive of recent models of inattention and suggest a setup where agents imperfectly process information due to both sticky information a la mankiw reis and noisy information a la sims however building and estimating such an expectation model we find that it cannot quantitatively replicate the error and disagreement observed in the data

what can survey forecasts tell us about information rigidities a lot we derive common and conflicting predictions from models in which agents face information constraints and then assess their validity using surveys of consumers firms central bankers and professional forecasters we document that mean forecasts fail to completely adjust on impact to shocks leading to statistically and economically significant deviations from the null of full information the dynamics of forecast errors after shocks are consistent with the predictions of models with information rigidities the conditional responses of forecast errors and disagreement among agents can also be used to differentiate between some of the most prominent models of information rigidities

structural reforms animal spirits and monetary policies abstract we use a new keynesian behavioral macroeconomic model to analyze how structural reforms affect the economy there are two types of structural reforms the first one increases price flexibility the second one increases competition in the labor market and raises potential output we find that in a rigid economy business cycle movements are dominated by movements of animal spirits increasing price flexibility reduces the power of animal spirits and the boom bust nature of the business cycle we study the trade offs between output and inflation volatility faced by the central bank we find that flexibility improves these trade offs making it easier for the central bank to stabilize output and inflation

updating inflation expectations evidence from micro data utilizing the michigan household consumer survey s rotating panel microstructure we can identify if individuals have adjusted their expectations towards inflation this allows us to directly capture the updating behavior of individual consumers regarding their short and long run inflation expectations

public information and inflation expectations microeconometric evidence from a natural experiment abstract governments provide public information to reduce information imperfections do households rely on public signals to inform themselves about market conditions to identify the importance of public information in households price expectations we take advantage of a unique natural experiment in ecuador where the published inflation rate had been different from the correct rate over a period of fourteen months due to a software error we find that the public signal about prices plays an important role in households price expectations and the change in price expectations affects their savings choices the effect is stronger for better educated and older people

how beliefs influence the willingness to contribute to prevention expenditure we study how beliefs affect individuals willingness to contribute to prevention expenditure through a two type n person public good game and test several results empirically we show analytically that pessimistic agents will invest more in prevention expenditure than optimists we also demonstrate how small differences in beliefs may induce substantial differences in type related prevention expenditure the more atomistic agents are the less they will contribute to the public good pessimistic beliefs then lead to a double deprivation and we discuss potential issues and remedies the more optimistic a society is the lower will be its total green expenditure we then use a large international survey to study how beliefs and additional controls determine prevention expenditure we rely on several proxies for beliefs and the willingness to contribute to prevention expenditure which we combine through principal component analysis in addition we investigate the role of environmental education for the relationship between beliefs and the willingness to contribute because of potential endogeneity bias due to unobserved variables that are likely to affect both beliefs and the willingness to contribute we follow the theoretical analysis and resort to a recursive bivariate model our main findings are very much in line with the theoretical predictions we find across all specifications that more optimistic beliefs lead to a lower willingness to contribute environmental education affects the willingness to contribute only indirectly through its impact on beliefs

inflation expectations and macroeconomic dynamics the case of rational versus extrapolative expectations the motivation of this paper is to understand the effects of coupling a macroeconomic model of inflation rate dynamics relying on an aggregate expectation to a heterogeneous expectations framework a standard macroeconomic textbook model consisting of okun s law an expectations augmented phillips curve and an aggregate demand relation is extended to allow agents the possibility of selecting between different types of forecasting strategies to predict the future inflation rate rules that have produced low prediction errors in the recent past are favored by agents here we consider trend following and rational expectations using a mixture of analytical and numerical tools we investigate the model s dynamics and discuss the conditions under which the extended model leads to endogenous fluctuations in macroeconomic variables some preliminary results are offered for the case in which a taylor like monetary policy rule is included in the model jel classification c61 c62 e31 e32

anxious periods and bank lending we examine the lending behavior of banks during anxious periods the main characteristic of anxious periods is that the perceptions and expectations about economic conditions worsen for economic agents even though the economy is not in a recession we identify distinct periods of anxiety for consumers ceos firms and analysts subsequently we study the lending behavior of us banks during the anxious quarters from 1985 to 2010 using bank level data the results show that banks lending falls when consumers and analysts are anxious and this effect is more pronounced when banks hold a higher level of credit risk these effects are more pronounced in anxious periods that were followed by recessions and in these periods loan growth also responds negatively to the anxiety of ceos yet these effects are quite less prevalent in the period after 2001

new keynesian economics and the phillips curve models with sticky prices are an important part of new keynesian economics the author shows that several of the new keynesian models imply a formulation that is similar to the expectations augmented phillips curve of milton friedman and edmund phelps he then presents new estimates of the new keynesian phillips curve the author uses two proxies for price expectations survey based measures and an econometric based measure originally developed by bennett mccallum 1976 overall the results are consistent with the model but the survey based results are more precise suggesting that the surveys may be better measures of actual expectations copyright 1995 by ohio state university press

a tale of two rigidities sticky prices in a sticky information environment macroeconomic models with microeconomic foundations allow for comparisons with macro and micro empirical evidence this paper proposes a model wherein firms i acquire information infrequently generating sticky information mankiw and reis 2002 and ii face menu costs producing state dependent sticky prices i estimate parameters via indirect inference and show that under considerable real rigidity sticky prices in a sticky information environment are consistent with micro and macro evidence sticky prices not only help match micro data on price changes size and durations between adjustments they also improve the model s fit with the macro data as embodied in an empirical phillips curve

information induced heteroscedasticity in price expectations data this study tests the hypothesis that price expectations differ across individuals because they acquire different information about inflation if price information is a normal good then the amount of price information acquired will vary across individuals according to income education and other demand specific variables causing price expectations to be heteroscedastic with respect to these variables utilizing monthly household survey data the authors test the heteroscedasticity hypothesis and find support for the differential information model in addition they develop a novel method of incorporating the don t know response to questions about inflation into the estimation of price expectations copyright 1990 by mit press

the effects of professional forecast dissemination on macroeconomic volatility abstract this paper explores the role that professional forecast announcements can have on macroeconomic volatility bounded rational agents are used inside a medium scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model with financial frictions modeled agents must form expectations about endogenous variables by selecting between three simple linear forecasting specifications some of which contain the inclusion of a professionally announced forecast of the economic variable historically calibrated simulations of the model show that the usage of the announced professional forecast by the agents in their adaptive learning forecast specifications can reduce the volatility in consumption inflation and wages by as much as 26 23 and 22 respectively however if the professional forecast is not disseminated well to the agents or biased in its dissemination agents will learn to ignore the announcement and macroeconomic volatility will increase further the inclusion of very noisy professional forecast signals can result in coordinated volatility cascades where agents could reduce macroeconomic volatility by ignoring the professional forecast but choose not to because of its previous forecast performance

when can carbon abatement policies increase welfare the fundamental role of distorted factor markets abstract this paper employs analytical and numerical models to assess the welfare effects of a revenue neutral carbon tax and nonauctioned carbon emissions permits taking into account preexisting tax distortions in factor markets the presence of preexisting taxes significantly raises the general equilibrium costs of both policies this cost increase is much greater under emissions permits since this policy does not generate revenues to reduce distortionary taxes under our central estimates emissions permits cannot increase welfare unless environmental damages exceed about 18 per ton of carbon in contrast an appropriately scaled carbon tax is welfare improving so long as environmental damages are positive

macroeconomic expectations of households and professional forecasters economists have long emphasized the importance of expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes yet there has been almost no recent effort to model actual empirical expectations data instead m acroeconomists usually simply assume that expectations are rational this paper shows that while empirical household expectations are not rational in the usual sense expectational dynamics are well captured by a model in which households views derive from news reports of the views of professional forecasters which in turn may be rational the model s estimates imply that people only occasionally pay attention to news reports this inattention generates stickyness in aggregate expectations with important macroeconomic consequences

the economic effects of climate change greenhouse gas emissions are fundamental both to the world s energy system and to its food production the production of co2 the predominant gas implicated in climate change is intrinsic to fossil fuel combustion specifically thermal energy is generated by breaking the chemical bonds in the carbohydrates oil coal and natural gas and oxidizing the components to co2 and h2o one cannot have cheap energy without carbon dioxide emissions similarly methane ch4 emissions an important greenhouse gas in its own right are necessary to prevent the build up of hydrogen in anaerobic digestion and decomposition one cannot have beef mutton dairy or rice without methane emissions climate change is the mother of all externalities larger more complex and more uncertain than any other environmental problem the sources of greenhouse gas emissions are more diffuse than any other environmental problem every company every farm every household emits some greenhouse gases the effects are similarly pervasive weather affects agriculture energy use health and many aspects of nature which in turn affects everything and everyone the causes and consequences of climate change are very diverse and those in low income countries who contribute least to climate change are most vulnerable to its effects climate change is also a long term problem some greenhouse gases have an atmospheric life time measured in tens of thousands of years the quantities of emissions involved are enormous in 2000 carbon dioxide emissions alone and excluding land use change were 24 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide tco2

asymmetric preferences and the stability problem for optimal monetary policy rules this paper evaluates the stability properties of optimal monetary policy rules when professionals under adaptive learning have asymmetric preferences the asymmetric preferences require volatility estimates in real time an expectations based rule can stabilize the economy while a fundamentals based rule leads to instability

why are there large differences in performances when the same carbon emission reductions are achieved in different countries great interest has been in unilateral climate policies given present difficulty of establishing stable global coordinated agreements in this paper we investigate underlining factors explaining large differences in performances when the same carbon emission reductions are achieved in different abating countries to this end we develop a new multi country general equilibrium model incorporating six countries or world regions two goods six production inputs capital mobility energy mobility and international trade meanwhile we adopt two performance indicators with carbon leakage representing environmental efficiency and carbon emission abatement costs revealing cost effectiveness our findings are as follows firstly there are large differences in performances among these unilateral climate policies as evidenced by large differences in leakage rates and carbon emission abatement costs secondly the new global climate treaties to replace the kyoto protocol should be able to induce more carbon emission reductions in countries with low carbon emission reduction costs since such setting contributes to global cost savings finally developed countries have high carbon emission abatement costs compared with large developing countries china and india in this paper implying that there should be trade off mechanisms between efficiency and equity regarding how to allocate carbon emission reductions among countries

heterogeneous information quality strategic complementarities and optimal policy design abstract the beauty contest framework of morris and shin 2002 is extended to allow sub groups within the population of agents to differ in the quality i e precision of their private information we discuss the inefficiency of the resulting model s equilibrium and assess the relative effectiveness in remedying this inefficiency of i a pigouvian tax scheme ii direct policy intervention by means of an instrument which can modify the state of the world the disclosure policy implications of each of these two policy approaches are also analyzed

experimental evidence on inflation expectation formation using laboratory experiments within a new keynesian sticky price framework we study the process of inflation expectation formation we focus on adaptive learning and rational expectations contrary to the previous literature that mostly studied simple heuristics using a test for rational expectations that allows heterogeneity of expectations we find that we cannot reject rationality for about 40 of subjects more than 20 of subjects are also best described by adaptive learning models where they behave like econometricians and update their model estimates every period however rather than using a single forecasting model switching between models describes their behavior better switching is more likely to occur when experimental economy is in a recession

firm performance and macro forecast accuracy abstract combining a unique survey of japanese firms gdp forecasts with accounting data for 25 years we find three main results first firms gdp forecasts are associated with their employment investment and output growth in the subsequent year second over optimistic and pessimistic forecast errors predict lower profitability and productivity consistent with our model of input choice under uncertainty third larger and more cyclical firms make forecasts closer to professionals presumably reflecting their higher return to accuracy forecasts by more productive and older firms are also more similar to professional forecasts implying forecasting ability is linked to management ability and experience

the structure of expectations of the weekly money supply announcement abstract this paper examines the structure of expectations of the weekly money supply announcement in the late 1970s the data used are from a weekly telephone survey of money market participants the rationality and structure of expectations are explored with the data organized in three ways the mean response to each weekly survey the pooled sample of individual responses and time series of responses by each individual in the survey the effect of data aggregation on rationality tests is investigated the structure of the expectations data are also examined and it is found that both strong regressive influences and adaptive learning characterize the data

interpreting pre trends as anticipation impact on estimated treatment effects from tort reform abstract while conducting empirical work researchers sometimes observe changes in outcomes before adoption of a new policy the conventional diagnosis is that treatment is endogenous this observation is also consistent however with anticipation effects that arise naturally out of many theoretical models this paper illustrates that distinguishing endogeneity from anticipation matters greatly when estimating treatment effects it provides a framework for comparing different methods for estimating anticipation effects and proposes a new set of instrumental variables to address the problem that subjects expectations are unobservable finally this paper examines a specific set of tort reforms that was not targeted at physicians but was likely anticipated by them interpreting pre trends as evidence of anticipation increases the estimated effect of these reforms by a factor of two compared to a model that ignores anticipation

financial crisis and persistence evidence from sticky expectations consumption growth model abstractwe estimate the degree of stickiness in aggregate consumption growth for the u s considering the effects of the great recession the behavior of stickiness estimate in the crisis is somewh

state dependent pricing and the general equilibrium dynamics of money and output economists have long suggested that nominal product prices are changed infrequently because of fixed costs in such a setting optimal price adjustment should depend on the state of the economy yet while widely discussed statedependent pricing has proved difficult to incorporate into macroeconomic models this paper develops a new tractable theoretical state dependent pricing framework we use it to study how optimal pricing depends on the persistence of monetary shocks the elasticities of labor supply and goods demand and the interest sensitivity of money demand

sticky information the impact of different information updating assumptions vector auto regressions applied to u s data find that inflation and output experience persistent and hump shaped responses to unanticipated monetary shocks one monetary model that can generate these responses employs sticky information under sticky information a firm may costlessly change its nominal price every period however the firm can only occasionally update the information upon which it bases decisions we show that this result hinges critically on the assumption that each firm receives information updates randomly if on the other hand each firm updates its information at infrequent but fixed intervals a the output response is not persistent and only weakly hump shaped under one year price contracts b the inflation response suffers diminished persistence and a reduced hump shape c the inflation response remains unrealistic under longer durations

comparing climate policies to reduce carbon emissions in china new huadu business school research fund national social science foundation of china 12zd059 shandong social science planning fund program 12djjj12 independent innovation foundation of shandong university iifsdu 2012gn038 ministry of education research of social sciences china postdoctoral science foundation 2013m530309

heterogeneity learning and information stickiness in inflation expectations in this paper we propose novel techniques for the empirical analysis of adaptive learning and sticky information in inflation expectations these methodologies are applied to the distribution of households inflation expectations collected by the university of michigan survey research center to account for the evolution of the cross section of inflation forecasts over time and measure the degree of heterogeneity in private agents forecasts we explore time series of percentiles from the empirical distribution our results show that heterogeneity is pervasive in the process of inflation expectation formation we identify three regions of the distribution that correspond to different underlying mechanisms of expectation formation a static or highly autoregressive region on the left hand side of the median a nearly rational region around the median and a fraction of forecasts on the right hand side of the median formed in accordance with adaptive learning and sticky information

frequency bias in consumers perceptions of inflation an experimental study we investigate whether the perception of economy wide inflation is affected by the frequency with which various goods prices are observed we provide novel experimental evidence that consumers perceptions of aggregate inflation are systematically biased toward the perceived inflation rates of the frequently purchased items this frequency bias may affect consumers consumption and investment decisions and thus have important macroeconomic consequences it may also explain why consumers typically over estimate inflation in surveys during periods where frequently purchased non durable goods are inflating faster than durables