state lotteries and consumer behavior abstract this paper investigates two central issues regarding state lotteries first analyses of multiple sources of micro level data demonstrate that household lottery spending is financed primarily by a reduction in non gambling expenditures not by a reduction in expenditures on other forms of gambling the introduction of a state lottery is associated with an average decline of 46 per month or 2 4 percent in household non gambling expenditures low income households reduce non gambling household expenditures by 2 5 percent on average 3 1 percent when the state lottery includes instant games these households experience statistically significant declines in expenditures on food and on rent mortgage and other bills second consumer demand for lottery products responds positively to the expected value of the gamble controlling for other statistical moments and product characteristics including the nominal top prize amount this finding is consistent with informed choice among consumers of lottery products although other forms of irrational or misinformed choice cannot be ruled out

comparing optima do simplifying assumptions affect conclusions consider a family of maximization models in which the optimum trades off beneficial and costly effects then comparative statics derived under many kinds of simplifying assumptions about the benefits technology are also true for general convex and nonconvex technologies for example any comparative statics conclusion about investment by a risk averse decision maker under uncertainty that holds when expected returns are described by a general linear function also holds for an arbitrary nonlinear expected return function

wars and state capacity the article builds a simple model to investigate how different types of armed conflict shape fiscal capacity the state s ability to raise revenue from taxes it starts from the simple observation

flexible specialisation the new competition and industrial districts flexible specialisation the new competition and industrial districts are concepts reviewed in this article to determine whether they can provide an alternative for the description of the industrial sector as a system of mass production the concepts mentioned are discussed and criticized in this article all three concepts stress the importance of a certain division of labour of interfirm relations of cooperation versus competition of technological development and innovation diffusion of flexibility the role of small enterprises and a local value system however a number of differences between the concepts are also highlighted as well as the problems to use them in empirical research it is concluded that the three terms are complementary and could be used in combination the flexible competitive districts would provide an alternative type of industrial organization somewhere between the large scale integrated enterprise and the atomized self contained individual firm the challenge lies in turning the positive theory into a normative one how can industrial development in eastern europe and third world countries be turned into the development of flexible competitive district which contribute significantly to the development of these countries and allow for an important role for micro small and medium enterprises it is argued that this can be done in the framework of urban and regional development policies but this requires a different role for the government and the provision of an adequate infrastructure

political regimes and the extractive capacity of governments taxation in democracies and dictatorships recent political and economic transformations in latin america africa asia and eastern europe have brought about a renewed interest in the incentives and capabilities of different types of political regimes to implement policies that are deemed necessary for economic development in particular policies aimed at increasing tax revenue one central question is whether democracies can collect as much in taxes as dictatorships this article addresses this question by examining whether regime type classified as democracy or dictatorship has a causal impact on a government s capacity to mobilize resources through taxation on the basis of data gathered for 108 countries for the period between 1970 and 1990 the article concludes that observed differences across countries regarding the level of taxes collected by the government are not due to the fact that some are under a democracy and others under a dictatorship concerns about the inability of democratic regimes to collect taxes are therefore unfounded

an investigation into the power of insiders in wage determination abstract this paper is concerned with the role of insider forces in wage determination various union and non union models of wage behaviour are considered and they imply that wages are a convex combination of internal and external factors certain union models also imply a degree of hysteresis data on fourteen british production industries reveal that i insider forces are important ii their importance is directly related to both union power and the degree of monopoly in the product market iii the state of the aggregate labour market is also important and iv hysteresis effects arising from insider power are only significant in a small minority of sectors

life after takeover economic consequences of takeovers are investigated by analyzing profitability of enterprises acquired a s a direct or indirect white knight consequence of tender offer s target companies pre tender profitability averaged 0 97 percentag e points below peer industry norms nine years after takeover acquir ed lines of business had operating income assets percentages 3 10 poi nts below those of non tender lines with similar industry bases mark et shares and merger accounting methods most of the targets postta keover profit decline stemmed from asset value writeups there is no indication that on average the acquirers raised their targets operat ing profitability net of merger related accounting adjustments copyright 1987 by blackwell publishing ltd

religious beliefs gambling attitudes and financial market outcomes this study investigates whether geographic variation in religion induced gambling norms affects aggregate market outcomes we conjecture that gambling propensity would be stronger in regions with higher concentrations of catholics relative to protestants consistent with our conjecture we show that in regions with higher catholic protestant ratios investors exhibit a stronger propensity to hold lottery type stocks broad based employee stock option plans are more popular the initial day return following an initial public offering is higher and the magnitude of the negative lottery stock premium is larger collectively these results indicate that religion induced gambling attitudes impact investors portfolio choices corporate decisions and stock returns

cities constitutions and sovereign borrowing in europe 1274 1785 this article investigates the politics of sovereign borrowing in europe over the very long run i consider three alternative hypotheses regarding the sources of borrower credibility according to the first european states with constitutional checks on executive authority found it easier to obtain credit at low interest rates than did states that lacked such constraints my second hypothesis focuses on state type city state versus territorial state and the way in which this may have influ enced the balance of political power between owners of land and owners of capital in a society this hypothesis suggests that after controlling for other factors one should observe that city states in europe found it easier to borrow than did larger territorial states and that these city states paid lower interest rates on their debt finally my third hypothesis suggests that borrower credibility depended on the simultaneous presence of both constitutional checks and balances and a city state when one con siders a broad sample of cases over a long time span there is strong support for the proposition involving city states and merchant power but less support for the argu ment that constitutional checks influenced credibility regardless of state type city state or territorial state there is however some empirical evidence of an interaction effect whereby constitutional constraints on rulers made city states particularly cred ible as borrowers my results are robust to a number of controls for alternative deter minants for sample selection bias and for the endogeneity of city state development one of the most frequently cited recent arguments about european state develop ment involves the effect of constitutional checks and balances on economic per formance in areas where political institutions placed constraints on rulers scholars have argued that property rights were more secure which helped stimulate invest ment innovation and growth authors have suggested that checks and balances also facilitated long term borrowing by governments since creditors found it less likely that constrained rulers would default on loans easier access to loans at low interest rates gave some states an advantage in international competition the con trasting cases of great britain and france provide a popular illustration of the

politics and economics in weak and strong states abstract while much research in political economy points out the benefits of limited government political scientists have long emphasized the problems created in many less developed nations by weak states which lack the power to tax and regulate the economy and to withstand the political and social challenges from non state actors i construct a model in which the state apparatus is controlled by a self interested ruler who tries to divert resources for his own consumption but who can also invest in socially productive public goods both weak and strong states create distortions when the state is excessively strong the ruler imposes such high taxes that economic activity is stifled when the state is excessively weak the ruler anticipates that he will not be able to extract rents in the future and underinvests in public goods i show that the same conclusion applies in the analysis of both the economic power of the state i e its ability to raise taxes and its political power i e its ability to remain entrenched from the citizens i also discuss how under certain circumstances a different type of equilibrium which i refer to as consensually strong state equilibrium can emerge whereby the state is politically weak but is allowed to impose high taxes as long as a sufficient fraction of the proceeds are invested in public goods the consensually strong state might best correspond to the state in oecd countries where taxes are high despite significant control by the society over the government

declining share of small firms in u s output causes and consequences jang ting guo i introduction according to the small business administration s sba calculations as shown in table 1 the contribution of small firms to u s national income was 58 in 1958 which then declined steadily to 51 in 1982 and stabilized around this value until 1992 the latest year for which the figures are available 1 this decline is quite puzzling in light of recent changes in technological factors market competition and government policies that were supposed to benefit small businesses 2 in this article we construct a dynamic general equilibrium model with two production sectors representing large and small firms to examine possible causes and welfare implications of this declining trend of small firms output contribution in the u s economy moreover this study brings into focus the role of government policies such as the justice department s anti trust efforts and the tiering programs whereby many regulations impose lighter requirements on smaller firms in order to maintain their viability 3 recently there have been several developments that can be considered beneficial towards the emergence of small firms shephard 1982 has estimated that since 1958 government deregulatory efforts have raised the level of competition in the u s economy by eliminating entry barriers and lowering transaction costs these factors in turn have contributed to the viability of small firms in the marketplace furthermore the emergence of new computer based technologies in the last two decades has improved the quality and flexibility of small scale production relative to standardized mass production techniques since they reduce the fixed capital or fixed cost requirements see shephard 1982 piore and sable 1984 carlsson 1989b and carlsson audretsch and acs 1994 4 another factor that improves the viability of small firms is their higher innovation rate as documented by acs and audretsch 1990 the shift of consumers taste from standardized mass produced goods towards stylized and personalized prod ucts also promotes small firm growth given their flexible production structure small firms have become important suppliers for these new goods and services see carlsson 1989a in light of these favorable developments one would expect to observe the number of small firms as well as their share in national income to rise in the u s economy however this has not been borne out by the data regarding small firms output share this article examines this issue in a dynamic general equilibrium framework extending romer s 1987 model of specialization we develop an infinite horizon representative agent model with two production sectors that are made up of large and small firms respectively the two sectors differ from each other with respect to the level of fixed set up costs and returns to scale parameters of their production functions each sector has an intermediate good segment in which monopolistically competitive firms operate using fully mobile capital and labor inputs the number of these intermediate firms is determined endogenously from the condition of free entry and exit a final good is produced in each sector from the set of available intermediate goods in a perfec tly competitive environment these two final goods are then aggregated into a single output gdp that can be consumed or invested by the representative household in a symmetric perfect foresight equilibrium these features result in an unequal number of large and small firms which can then be used to analyze the effects of technological changes and government policies the sectoral structure of our model in which gdp is produced by combining outputs of large and small firms is different from a typical two sector model with distinct consumption and investment goods in fact our two sector economy with identical factor intensities behaves exactly like a standard one sector model in which the representative household allocates resources across the two sectors to equate marginal products to factor prices

peers at work we study peer effects in the workplace specifically we investigate whether how and why the productivity of a worker depends on the productivity of coworkers in the same team using high frequency data on worker productivity from a large supermarket chain we find strong evidence of positive productiv ity spillovers from the introduction of highly productive personnel into a shift worker effort is positively related to the productivity of workers who see him but not workers who do not see him additionally workers respond more to the presence of coworkers with whom they frequently interact we conclude that social pressure can partially internalize free riding externalities that are built into many workplaces jel j24 l81 m54

flexibility and the theory of the firm abstract the object of this paper is 1 to bring together and integrate the various concepts of flexibility found in the economic literature 2 to flesh out the meaning of various aspects of flexibility and their implications thereby bridging the gap between the existing highly abstract theories and the empirical facts and 3 in the process to give a rich and comprehensive enough description of an industry to stimulate further theoretical as well as empirical work the study tries to combine inductive and deductive reasoning using empirical observations based on indepth interviews with manufacturers in the metalworking industry in the united states and sweden

rules of thumb for social learning this paper studies agents who consider the experiences of their neighbors in deciding which of two technologies to use we analyze two learning environments one in which the same technology is optimal for all players and another in which each technology is better for some of them in both environments players use exogenously specified rules of thumb that ignore historical data but may incorporate a tendency to use the more popular technology in some cases these naive rules can lead to fairly efficient decisions in the long run but adjustment can be slow when a superior technology is first introduced

decentralized coercion and self restraint in provincial taxation the ottoman empire 15th 16th centuries abstract for technological reasons the central administration of a state may want to entrust to provincial delegates the dual tasks of extracting provincial resources and converting them into coercive force this article establishes that the coercive threat that the delegates pose may make the administration cap the amount they extract the cap will cause the state not to internalize the marginal benefits of provincial economic development it will also induce inefficient economic policies the identified institutional setup is consistent with the political regime economic policy and legislation of the ottoman empire during its classical age

word of mouth communication and social learning this paper studies the way that word of mouth communication aggregates the information of individual agents we find that the structure of the communication process determines whether all agents end up making identical choices with less communication making this conformity more likely despite the players naive decision rules and the stochastic decision environment word of mouth communication may lead all players to adopt the action that is on average superior these socially efficient outcomes tend to occur when each agent samples only a few others i introduction economic agents must often make decisions without knowing the costs and benefits of the possible choices given the frequency with which such situations arise it is understandable that agents often choose not to perform studies or experiments but instead rely on whatever information they have obtained via casual word of mouth communication reliance on this sort of easily obtained information appears to be common in circumstances ranging from consumers choosing restaurants or auto mechanics to business managers evaluating alternative organizational structures this paper studies two related environments in arguing that individuals reliance on word of mouth communication has interesting implications for their aggregate behavior first motivated by the diffusion of new technologies we consider a choice between two competing products with unequal qualities or payoffs and show that the structure of communication is important in determining whether the population as a whole is likely to learn to use the superior product second we consider a choice between two products or practices that are equally good and ask whether consumers are likely to herd onto a single choice or whether diversity will obtain even in the long run we explore the implications of word of mouth communication in a simple nonstrategic environment there is a large population of identical players each of whom repeatedly chooses between two possible actions each player s payoff is determined by his own

war international finance and fiscal capacity in the long run in this article i revisit the relationship between war and state making in modern times by focusing on two prominent types of war finance taxes and foreign loans financing war with tax money enhances the capacity to assess wealth and monitor compliance namely fiscal capacity tax financed war facilitates the adoption of power sharing institutions which transform taxation into a non zero sum game carrying on the effect of war in the long run financing war with external capital does not contribute to long term fiscal capacity if borrowers interrupt debt service and as part of the default settlement war debt is condoned or exchanged for nontax revenue the empirical evidence draws from war around the world as early as 1816 results suggest that globalization of capital markets in the nineteenth century undermined the association between war state making and political reform

causes of increased competition in the u s economy 1939 1980 examines the sources of increased competition in the united states u s between 1939 to 1980 in this paper authors consider the review of related literature trends and patterns of competitive structure in the u s economy influence of antirust actions on competition

war making and state making governmental expenditures tax revenues and global wars addressing the disputed relationship between war and the expansion of governmental expenditures and revenues box tiao intervention models are applied to a number of british 1700 1980 united states 1792 1980 french 1815 1979 and japanese 1878 1980 spending and taxation series distinguishing between global and interstate wars the more intensive and extensive bouts of warfare global wars tend to bring about abrupt permanent impacts in contrast to the temporary changes associated with most interstate wars the observed displacements are reflected in both war related and nonwar related types of expenditure and are also observed before 1900 although our findings are not universally applicable and are subject to various other qualifications they may be interpreted in general as reinforcing the need for an appreciation of the persistent centrality of war especially global war in the discontinuous growth and expansion of the modern state

social interaction and stock market participation we propose that stock market participation is influenced by social interaction in our model any given social investor finds the market more attractive when more of his peers participate we test this theory using data from the health and retirement study and find that social households those who interact with their neighbors or attend church are substantially more likely to invest in the market than non social households controlling for wealth race education and risk tolerance moreover consistent with a peer effects story the impact of sociability is stronger in states where stock market participation rates are higher

firm size and employment determination in dutch manufacturing industries this paper examines whether the determination of employment differs between large and small firms an employment equation is estimated on panel data of 67 35 three digit industries in dutch manufacturing 1974 1986 the conclusions are as follows firstly employment adjustment appears to be faster in small firms than in large ones secondly the elasticity of factor substitution and the real wage elasticity at constant output are nearly the same for large and small firms thirdly the estimated output elasticities suggest constant returns to scale in large firms and increasing returns in small ones finally the number of working hours has less impact on employment in small firms than in large ones

different paths to the modern state in europe the interaction between warfare economic structure and political regime theoretical work on taxation and state building borrows heavily from early modern european experience while a number of european states increased centralized tax revenues during this period for others revenues stagnated or even declined and these variations have motivated alternative arguments for the determinants of fiscal and state capacity this study reviews the arguments concerning the three determinants that have received most attention namely warfare economic structure and political regime and tests them by making use of a new and comprehensive tax revenue dataset our main finding is that these three determinants worked in interaction with each other specifically when under pressure of war it was representative regimes in more urbanized commercial economies and authoritarian regimes in more rural agrarian economies that tended to better aggregate domestic interests towards state building

state capacity conflict and development the absence of state capacities to raise revenue and to support markets is a key factor in explaining the persistence of weak states this paper reports on an ongoing project to investigate the incentive to invest in such capacities the paper sets out a simple analytical structure in which state capacities are modeled as forward looking investments by government the approach highlights some determinants of state building including the risk of external or internal conflict the degree of political instability and dependence on natural resources throughout we link these state capacity investments to patterns of development and growth

the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle time trend or speculative episodes campbell lettau malkiel and xu 2001 document a positive trend in idiosyncratic volatility during the 1962 1997 period we show that by 2003 volatility falls back to pre 1990s levels furthermore we show that the increase and subsequent reversal is concentrated among firms with low stock prices and high retail ownership this evidence suggests that the increase in idiosyncratic volatility through the 1990s was not a time trend but rather an episodic phenomenon at least partially associated with retail investors results from cross sectional regressions conditional trend estimation stock split events and attention grabbing events are consistent with a retail trading effect the author 2009 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please email journals permissions oxfordjournals org oxford university press

on the economics of state lotteries s tate lotteries can be evaluated from either of two perspectives familiar to economists as a consumer commodity or as a source of public revenue l as a commodity the lottery is notable for its broad market penetration and rapid growth sixty percent of the adults in lottery states play at least once in a year the annual growth in real per capita sales in lottery states has averaged 12 percent rising in 1989 dollars from 22 in 1975 to 108 in 1989 as a source of public revenue lotteries account for a rather modest fraction of revenue in states that run them 3 3 percent in 1986 but they are nonetheless one of the most visible state government activities lottery sales exceed those of all other products sold directly by state governments to the public and are larger than all but three major activities of state government education public welfare and highways clotfelter and cook 1989 table 2 5 moreover lotteries are a qualitatively new activity for state governments in that they are a business operated in effect for profit state liquor stores are perhaps the closest analog but they were created to encourage temperate drinking practices and do not engage in the sales promotion and marketing activities that are characteristic of the lotteries lotteries enjoy an honored place in american history as a device for raising funds for public purposes funding for such institutions as the jamestown settlement harvard college and the continental army as well as hundreds of bridges fire houses and schools came from lotteries but after the

the development and use of machine tools in historical perspective abstract improvements and diffusion of machine tools have had a major impact on productivity in manufacturing industry since the industrial revolution the impact has been both direct and indirect the direct impact consists of rising labor productivity through the use of faster more accurate more mechanized machines and of the higher capital productivity through higher operating rates greater reliability and higher utilization rates the indirect impact arises as the use of new or improved machine tools has necessitated or facilitated organizational changes affecting both labor capital raw materials and energy the magnitude of these impacts has varied over the years with the areas of application as new production methods have made possible entirely new products or lowered the cost of existing products sufficiently to create new markets the first part of the paper contains a review of the historical development of machine tool technology since the industrial revolution paying particular attention to the role of interaction between producers and users of machine tools the second part focuses on the way in which recent development differs from that in earlier periods in particular it is found that the major changes in machine tool technology from the so called american system of manufactures in the early 19th century to the development of detroit automation in the 1950s have tended to improve mass production methods by contrast the development of numerical control beginning in 1948 has opened up the possibility of extending industrial production methods and automation to areas previously characterized more by handicraft methods even though this technology is not yet fully utilized it is clear that the economics of industrial production has been revolutionized by the cost reduction of small scale production relative to large scale and the degree of flexibility offered by the technology the third section of the paper deals with the present development trends particularly discussing the increasing importance of flexibility and the shifting emphasis from development of individual pieces of machinery to integration and control of entire manufacturing processes i a through the use of industrial robots the reasons for the need for greater flexibility in manufacturing are also identified

the economics of change in rural america communities perceptions of economic development prospects and alternatives are conditioned by previous experiences and anecdotal success stories thus small towns in traditionally agricultural regions equate economic development with prosperity in agriculture and the agricultural development program of the day sustainable agriculture value added enhancement alternative crops prosperity in nonmetro manufacturing centers is linked with industrial retention and recruitment and small business development and rural areas with natural historic or climatic amenities associate development with expanded tourism activity and the attraction of retirees

the evolution of manufacturing technology and its impact on industrial structure an international study this paper shows that plant and firm size in manufacturing and especially in engineering industry in several western industrial countries has declined since the early 1970s two hypotheses explaining the decline are advanced one is de glomeration or specialization the divestiture of non core businesses in order to free up scarce resources particularly management time to defend and nurture core business activities the second hypothesis is that the emergence of new computer based technology has improved the quality and productivity of small and medium scale production relative to standardized mass production techniques which dominated previously

coordination commitment and enforcement the case of the merchant guild we interpret historical evidence in light of a repeated game model to conclude that merchant guilds emerged during the late medieval period to allow rulers of trade centers to commit to the security of alien merchants the merchant guild developed the theoretically required attributes secured merchants property rights and evolved in response to crises to extend the range of its effectiveness contributing to the expansion of trade during the late medieval period we elaborate on the relations between our theory and the monopoly theory of merchant guilds and contrast it with repeated game theories that provide no role for formal organization

the employment financing nexus evidence from a panel of west german firms the objective of the paper is to investigate the linkage between financial factors and employment decisions of west german firms the underlying model is based upon rational expectations and convex adjustment costs the time series cross section estimates for the period 1989 1994 are obtained using information on individual firms contained in business surveys we find that financial constraints can indeed restrain the level of employment in small firms on the contrary there is no evidence that this result applies to larger firms as well

small businesses as a research subject some reflections on knowledge of small businesses and its effects on economic theory most economists agree in their view of small and medium sized enterprises or small businesses smes as a marginal scientific subject they may go so far as to ignore them either because they think these economic units do not lend themselves to conventional economic studies studies which for instance take into account the sacred cow theory of economies of scale or because they see them as being not really different from big businesses

state capacity and military conflict powerful centralized states controlling a large share of national income only begin to appear in europe after 1500 we build a model that explains their emergence in response to the increasing importance of money for military success when fiscal resources are not crucial for winning wars the threat of external conflict stifles state building as finance becomes critical internally cohesive states invest in state capacity while divided states rationally drop out of the competition causing divergence we emphasize the role of the military revolution a sequence of technological innovations that transformed armed conflict using data from 374 battles we investigate empirically both the importance of money for military success and patterns of state building in early modern europe the evidence is consistent with the predictions of our model

promoting entrepreneurship in eastern europe the past decade has seen a revival of entrepreneurship in the modern industrial economies characterized by a wave of enterprise restructuring and of new developments in business and technology in this paper we argue that market transitions of the post socialist economies of eastern europe cannot be successful without similar entrepreneurial restructuring to address the massive structural distortions that still plague the post reform economies the governments of the region must promote entrepreneurship through policies that 1 make use of all possible sources of entrepreneurship including in particular the former state and social sectors and 2 establish a macroeconomic environment and property rights framework conducive to entrepreneurship a successful promotion strategy will need to operate on several fronts by 1 redirecting entrepreneurial activities into legal productive activities 2 increasing the supply and effectiveness of entrepreneurs 3 developing markets for complementary inputs and 4 increasing the demand for entrepreneurship an unsuccessful approach we argue will be one that regards the pre reform small private sector as the only source of entrepreneurship and as the only arena for its productive use

misery loves company social regret and social interaction effects in choices under risk and uncertainty abstract extensive field evidence shows individuals decisions in settings involving uncertainty depend on their peers decisions one hypothesized cause of peer group effects is social interaction effects an individual s utility from an action is enhanced by others taking the same action we employ a series of controlled laboratory experiments to study the causes of peer effects in choice under uncertainty we find strong peer group effects in the laboratory our design allows us to rule out social learning social norms group affiliation and complementarities as possible causes for the observed peer group effects leaving social interaction effects as the likely cause we use a combination of theory and empirical analysis to show that preferences including social regret are more consistent with the data than preferences including a taste for conformity we observe spillover effects as observing another s choice of one risky gamble makes all risky gambles more likely to be chosen

identification of endogenous social effects the reflection problem this paper examines the reflection problem that arises when a researcher observing the distribution of behaviour in a population tries to infer whether the average behaviour in some group influences the behaviour of the individuals that comprise the group it is found that inference is not possible unless the researcher has prior information specifying the compisition of reference groups if this information is available the prospects for inference depend critically on the population relationship between the variables defining reference groups and those directly affecting outcomes inference is difficult to implossible if these variables are functionally dependent or are statistically independent the prospects are better if the variables defining reference groups and those directly affecting outcomes are moderately related in the population

corporate takeovers the efficiency arguments in recent years the tender offer takeover has been praised and damned with a ferocity suggesting that the survival of capitalism is at stake the truth as in most disputes with substantial metaphysical content is more prosaic some takeovers enhance economic efficiency some degrade it and the balance of effects though not fully known is most likely a close one in this essay i try to lay bare the debate s foundations and bring it back to earth with an injection of evidence

state capacity and economic development causal mechanism or correlative filter abstract in this paper we explore why there are no examples of societies with low state capacity and high economic development we argue that such an outcome is unlikely because of the nature of investments in state capacity societies that become rich in the absence of a strong state invite predation by societies that develop such states thus societies invest in state capacity in part to plunder other societies wealth those investments are a form of rent seeking potentially preyed upon societies are forced to invest in state capacity in turn so as to deter potential attackers this entails that as soon as a rent seeker enters the game the likelihood of a low capacity high development society surviving falls this explains the historical lack of such societies we thus interpret state capacity not as a causal condition for widespread economic prosperity but a survivability condition for enjoying this prosperity

money and monetary stability in europe 1300 1914 abstract this paper investigates the determinants of monetary stability in europe from the late medieval era until world war i through this period the anchor for monetary policy was the silver or gold value of the monetary unit states however frequently abandoned this anchor some depreciating their monetary units against silver and gold less than 10 fold and others more than 10 000 fold between 1500 and 1914 to understand the determinants of these differences we compile a new and comprehensive monetary history dataset for all major states in europe and test alternative theories we find strong evidence that political factors and in particular fiscal capacity political regime and warfare explain patterns of monetary stability this finding is robust to addressing endogeneity controlling for the instability induced by the mechanics of the monetary system and accounting for the impacts of new monetary technologies and the advent of fiat standard

neighborhood effects on speculative behavior abstract speculative behavior plays a key role in numerous markets but little is known about its causes we test for neighborhood effects on speculative behavior using daily lottery sales data from 20 states in the u s in a sample of 160 000 retailers lottery sales in a census block increase by 0 26 on average for each 1 increase in neighboring blocks we test whether this correlation is attributable to contextual effects correlated effects or endogenous effects our analysis suggests that social interaction is an important cause of speculative behavior

the role of small firms in east germany this paper examines the role which small firms in east germany have played under the system of combines and the important contribution they can make in the current reform process the evolution of a striking trend towards the centralization of economic power in the gdr during the last three decades is documented not only has the share of economic activity accounted for by the combines greatly increased but the number of establishments and particularly small establishments has drastically decreased it is concluded that the establishment of a vital entrepreneurial sector is essential if east germany is to succeed in its process of economic reform and the transition to the market economy

how do banks adjust to changing input prices a dynamic analysis of u s commercial banks before and after the crisis abstract the 2000 2013 period was characterized by substantial regulatory monetary and technological change especially after the onset of the global financial crisis this study assesses the total impact of these policy shifts and technological changes on u s commercial banks short run and long run substitution elasticities an endogenous break test divides the sample into a pre crisis period and a post crisis period during the former period banks inputs tend to be inelastic substitutes after the onset of the crisis particularly the long run substitutability of most input factors decreases to even lower levels due to changes in both cost technology and economic conditions at the same time banks response to input price changes becomes more sluggish hence especially after the onset of the crisis banks have little flexibility regarding input factor usage and are thus sensitive to input price changes from a cost perspective

paying for war and building states the coalitional politics of debt servicing and tax institutions many scholars believe that intense warfare propelled state formation in early modern europe because rulers built tax institutions to pay for wars scholars likewise cite milder geopolitical pressures to explain the lackluster state building in the developing world the authors analyze episodes of ferocious warfare in and beyond europe and find that despite similar fiscal strains not all governments built strong tax institutions to service wartime debt when net creditors in a country s credit market were part of the ruling political coalition they pressed governments to diversify taxes and strengthen fiscal institutions to ensure debt service but when net debtors held political sway governments were indifferent to debt servicing and fiscal invigoration coalitional politics can help to explain why mounting debt service obligations led to fiscal institution building in some cases but not others the analysis highlights how the private economic interests of ruling coalition members can affect state building

do investors overpay for stocks with lottery like payoffs an examination of the returns of otc stocks abstract we study returns on over the counter stocks and find that these returns are extremely negative on average the distribution of otc stock returns is highly positively skewed while many of the stocks in our sample become worthless a few do extremely well we investigate whether this negative return premium can be rationalized by investors preference for positively skewed payoffs we show that the equilibrium model of barberis and huang 2008 provides a plausible explanation for the negative returns we also show that otc stocks that once traded on the regular exchanges perform much better than stocks that originate in the otc markets