fiscal policy expectation traps and child labor i introduction child labor is widespread in the contemporary world in fact the international labor organization ilo estimates that 246 million of the world s children aged 5 17 or 16 are child laborers most living in developing countries 1 recently there has been renewed interest in this topic among economists which has led to a series of theoretical studies with the aim of better understanding the causes and consequences of child labor in order to help guide appropriate policy responses as in grootaert and kanbur 1995 basu 1999 and basu and tzannatos 2003 for useful literature surveys typically theoretical models designed to address the important policy issues surrounding child labor posit that a family s decision to send a child to the labor market is taken only as a last resort in order to escape the dire consequences of poverty for example basu and van 1998 baland and robinson 2000 show that this response on the part of the family may be stronger in a dynamic setting because contracts between children and adults are not self enforcing and capital markets are incomplete 2 in this case an adult decision maker may not only send their children to work to escape poverty in the present but do so to escape poverty in the future as well this decision will hinder a child s ability to accumulate human capital and can lead to persistent cycles of poverty and child labor across generations 3 we begin by showing that a benevolent government can address the incidence of child labor that results from the non enforceability of intergenerational contracts and incomplete capital markets through the appropriate use of fiscal policy and that this policy is pareto improving it is then shown that if society s confidence in their government is incomplete this lack of confidence can render the same fiscal policy ineffective in other words if households do not believe that the government will follow through on their policy promise then in fact it is quite possible that the government will not be able to follow through on their promise as a result of these beliefs 4 this self reinforcing nature of fiscal policy in the presence of uncertainty can leave a country in an expectations trap with a low level of human capital and child labor 5 to formally demonstrate this fiscal policy expectations trap hypothesis we employ a three period overlapping generations model in which child labor exists 6 this stylized setup will keep the dynamics manageable and allow us to highlight the effects of uncertainty also within this framework we introduce a missing intergenerational contracts market in conjunction with a human capital production function that exhibits a threshold with respect to parental human capital which gives rise to two locally stable steady states there is a good equilibrium where there is a relatively high level of parental human capital which results in a high level of income and no child labor and there is a bad equilibrium where there is a relatively low level of parental human capital which results in a low level of income and positive child labor this low income child labor equilibrium is the standard poverty trap scenario that typically exists in a deterministic economy with multiple equilibria it is then shown that a benevolent government can replicate the missing intergenerational contracts market with a pay as you go social security program thereby eliminating this component of child labor in an economy with perfect foresight in addition it is also shown that this policy is pareto improving in the sense that all generations are strictly better off under this policy except the initial old who are no worse off the dynamics of this social security program are intuitive if child labor is one possible mechanism adults can use to redistribute resources from their children then the government can reduce this incentive by announcing a social security program that will begin during the current adults old age an institutional intergenerational contract

change in co2 emission and its transmissions between korea and japan using international input output analysis abstract this paper is intended to analyze co 2 transmission between japan and south korea through international trade based on 1990 and 1995 international input output data it applied a residual free structural decomposition method proposed by chung and rhee chung h s rhee h c 2001 a residual free decomposition of the sources of carbon dioxide emissions a case of the korean industries energy 26 1 15 30 to emission related international input output analysis for the first time in the decomposition studies this paper is a case study regarding the manner and the extent to which co 2 emissions are influenced by international trade between japan an annex i country and south korea a non annex i country which is of particular interest for the carbon leakage issue in this paper we attempted to show which factors contributed to the changes in emission of the major greenhouse gas in south korea and japan the changes in emission are analyzed in terms of emission intensity input techniques demand composition and trade structures according to our analysis south korea a non annex i country has more energy intensive production structures than japan an annex i country south korea s trade pattern with japan reflects these production features resulting in the korea s comparative advantage in emission intensive products though the degree has somewhat mitigated in 1995 compared to 1990

natural resource rents economic dynamics and structural change a capital theoretic approach abstract this paper concerns the effects of natural resource rents on the dynamics and structural change of an economy which is accumulating capital the concept of rent is developed and the determinants of natural resource rents in the real world are discussed to examine the long run effects of rents on the price system and economic structural change a neo austrian capital theoretic model is developed this is presented in input output form and the corresponding prices for the model are derived so that a consistent set of national accounts for the model can be found natural resource use is introduced into the model with natural resource rents forming a further element of value added the model is then further generalised with the dynamics of capital accumulation being determined through a savings function which itself varies with the rate of return on capital this model is used to simulate the effect on economic dynamics and structural change of two natural resource rent profiles both of which follow the hotelling rule the effects of these two cases on the model are examined through the corresponding sets of national accounts

inflation and reputation in many macroeconomic models with rational expectations optimal policy is time inconsistent and therefore announced policy may not be credible this paper models the government s credibility explicitly using kreps and wilson s analysis time consistent optimal government policy emerges as a sequential equilibrium in a repeated game this policy is at least as good as the inconsistent optimal policy and dominates the consistent policy when reputational effects are ignored thus the analysis resolves the problem of specifying a credible optimal policy in such models the results show why attempts to disinflate may lead to recession even with perfectly flexible prices this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities part 2 review of input output models for the assessment of environmental impacts embodied in trade this paper offers a detailed review of recently described single and multi region input output models used to assess environmental impacts of internationally traded goods and services it is the second part of a two part contribution in part 1 turner k lenzen m wiedmann t and barrett j in press examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities part 1 a technical note on combining input output and ecological footprint analysis ecological economics we describe how to enumerate the resource and pollution content of inter regional and inter national trade flows with the aim to illustrate an ideal accounting and modelling framework for the estimation of ecological footprints a large number of such environment economic models have been described but only in the last few years models have emerged that use a more sophisticated multi region multi sector input output framework this has been made possible through improvements in data availability and quality as well as computability we identify six major models that employ multi sector multi region input output analysis in order to calculate environmental impacts embodied in international trade results from the reviewed studies demonstrate that it is important to explicitly consider the production recipe land and energy use as well as emissions in a multi region multi sector and multi directional trade model with global coverage and detailed sector disaggregation only then reliable figures for indicators of impacts embodied in trade such as the ecological footprint can be derived

a first empirical comparison of energy footprints embodied in trade mrio versus plum abstract the ecological footprint as an indicator that accounts for human demand on global bioproductivity sets out to quantify the impacts associated with consumption in a given country including the impacts associated with trade the national footprint accounts nfa by global footprint network gfn calculate trade embodied footprints by multiplying yield and embodied energy factors with mass volumes of traded goods in a product land use matrix plum this article compares energy footprints embodied in trade from and to the united kingdom in 2002 as calculated by the nfa plum with the results from a recently developed multi region input output model mrio for the uk although totals for imports and exports are comparable breaking down the results by economic sectors reveals large differences and hardly any correlation between the two methods the omission of trade in services especially transport services and upstream impacts of energy goods fossil fuels and the use of inappropriate embodied energy factors in the nfa plum method are identified as the main reasons for these differences in the light of the results it seems that a comprehensive footprint account of trade can better be achieved with an input output based approach i conclude that mrio models once fully developed will be particularly suitable in the future to estimate the ecological footprints of imports and exports of nations with the possibility to track their origin via inter industry linkages international supply chains and multi national trade flows

examining the efforts of a small open economy to reduce carbon emissions the case of denmark abstract it is generally understood that greenhouse gasses produced by human activities are having a warming effect on the climate discussions concerning efforts to curb carbon dioxide emissions often focus on large countries however considerable resources have been spent to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by relatively small open economies although these economies are small players in international markets international trade has an important influence on their economies investigating the outcome of efforts to curb emissions by these small open economies provides insights into the situation faced by a large set of the world s economies this paper has three objectives 1 investigate the outcome of denmark s efforts to reduce its carbon emissions by characterizing the relationship between denmark s macroeconomic activity and carbon emissions 2 determine the carbon content of danish trade and document the important effects that growing trade with china has had on danish consumption emissions and 3 investigate the robustness of measures of consumption emissions under varying information requirements our analysis of the outcomes of danish efforts to reduce carbon emissions suggest two related lessons first small open economies should track both production and consumption emissions when evaluating their progress towards reducing carbon emissions second international trade should be considered in the design of environmental policy the danish experience indicates that increasing trade with a much larger and more emission intensive country can have substantial influence on consumption emissions

reputation and imperfect information abstract a common observation in the informal literature of economics and elsewhere is that is multistage games players may seek early in the game to acquire a reputation for being tough or benevolent or something else but this phenomenon is not observed in some formal game theoretic analyses of finite games such as selten s finitely repeated chain store game or in the finitely repeated prisoners dilemma we reexamine selten s model adding to it a small amount of imperfect or incomplete information about players payoffs and we find that this addition is sufficient to give rise to the reputation effect that one intuitively expects

recursive monetary policy games with incomplete information abstract this paper provides recursive methods for analyzing the credible equilibria of an incomplete information monetary policy game the policy game is one in which a discretionary government has a short run temptation to engage in a surprise monetary expansion it also has the opportunity to imitate a government that always implements the ex ante optimal monetary policy actions we derive an algorithm for computing the set of credible equilibrium payoffs we use this algorithm to explore the idea that incomplete information monetary policy games of this kind have fewer equilibria and less indeterminacy than their complete information counterparts

the genesis of inflation and the costs of disinflation this essay asks how high inflation arises and why it is costly to eliminate specifically the paper discusses the roles of price rigidity and credibility problems in explaining the costs of disinflation the puzzle of persistent inflation triggered by onetime macroeconomic shocks and the case for returning to adaptive expectations in theories of inflation this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

a review of recent multi region input output models used for consumption based emission and resource accounting abstract the interest in consumption based emission and resource accounting has grown significantly many studies juxtapose consumer emissions carbon footprint and producer territorial emissions of greenhouse gases in order to demonstrate the effects of trade on the national emission budget to this end a respectable number of studies have been undertaken worldwide in order to estimate emissions embedded in international trade of numerous countries and world regions input output approaches and increasingly multi region input output mrio models are commonly chosen as they provide an appropriate methodological framework for complete carbon footprint estimates at the national and supra national level with increasing processing capabilities of computers and a wider availability of economic accounts environmental accounts and trade data such models are now being implemented on a wide scale after a brief overview of salient single region input output studies i provide an in depth review of the most recent multi region input output models used for the purpose of consumption based environmental accounting the main methodological features and important results are described for around twenty studies covering the years 2007 to 2009 this is followed by a detailed review of studies dealing with uncertainty in mrio analysis an area which has not received a lot of attention so far i conclude that further research is mainly needed in two areas a improvements in data availability and quality and b improvements in the accuracy of mrio modelling

liquidity effects monetary policy and the business cycle this paper presents a flexible price quantitative general equilibrium model with the property that a positive money supply shock drives the nominal interest rate down and aggregate employment output and the real wage up these implications are broadly consistent with postwar u s data the two key features of the model that are responsible for its properties are 1 money shocks have a heterogeneous impact on agents and 2 ex post inflexibilities in production give rise to a very low short run interest elasticity of money demand in our model the extent of the drop in the interest rate after a positive money supply shock depends on the degree to which production is ex post inflexible given sufficient ex post inflexibility the model conforms well with the view widely held within the u s federal system that the short run interest rate elasticity for total reserves is very close to zero copyright 1995 by ohio state university press

on the intergenerational allocation of natural resources it is known hartwick and others that under standard assumptions a society that invests in reproducible capital the competitive rents on its current extraction of exhaustible resources will enjoy a consumption stream constant in time it is shown here that this result can be interpreted as saying that an appropriately defined stock of capital including the initial endowment of resources is being maintained intact and that consumption can be interpreted as the interest on that patrimony this seems like a useful rule of thumb for policy

integrating sustainable chain management with triple bottom line accounting abstract triple bottom line accounting is widely advanced as a way in which firms can realise broader societal objectives in addition to increasing shareholder value in our analysis of the australian economy we integrate financial input output tables that describe the interdependencies between economic sectors with national social and environmental accounts to construct numerate triple bottom line accounts for 135 discrete sectors the accounts are portrayed against the numeraire of one dollar of gdp thus for a sector of the economy financial aspects of performance can be expressed for example as dollars of export earnings per dollar of gdp social aspects such as employment can be portrayed as minutes of employment generated per dollar greenhouse issues can be portrayed as kilograms of carbon dioxide emitted per dollar since these indicators of triple bottom line performance are referenced against financial units and are consistent with the system of national accounts they can be applied to financial accounts of a firm a service or a product and allow a robust triple bottom line account to be developed across a range of scales the critical advantage of this approach is that it includes both the direct or immediate effects as well as the indirect or diffuse effects associated with a large and distant chain of supply paths the incorporation of most indirect or upstream effects therefore expands the range of issues and effects within the analytical boundary and also includes imports and exports both products and firms can then be assessed properly in sustainable chain management scm terms thus a firm that uses a key intermediate input that requires a large amount of water for example cannot hide the environmental implications since they are revealed in the analysis of the full production chain this revelation can also underpin progress when firms acknowledge both the direct and indirect effects and improve their selection of key inputs on a wider range of criteria rather than on price alone our analysis is well developed at the economic sector level for australia and is also being applied to number of government institutions firms and individual products before the full benefits of numerate triple bottom line accounting can be applied to the equity issues of globalisation trade interdependencies between groups of typical countries will have to be analysed using these whole economy approaches this will allow country specific intensities to be applied to important items in the international production chain

embodied pollution in trade estimating the environmental load displacement of industrialised countries abstract the present paper sets out to aid in the development of environmental load displacement indicators developing the notion of the environmental memory of physical flows we estimated embodied pollution in trade of 18 industrialized countries with a the rest of the world and b developing countries from 1976 to 1994 we found that in the last years of analysis total imports of japan usa and western europe have entailed in general larger air pollutant emissions than local exports the balance of embodied emissions in trade beet seems to follow an inverted u shape across time in japan and western europe and an n shape in the us in the period of analysis japanese and european environmental terms of trade with developing countries improved from the japanese and european point of view whereas american environmental terms of trade with developing countries deteriorated over time although there is no statistical trend between income and embodied emissions in imports in a cross section analysis there does seem to be a positive relationship between both variables at a national level the results suggest that despite many shortcomings this type of assessment may shed useful insights on the international aspects of sustainable development

worldwide macroeconomic stability and monetary policy rules we study the interaction of multiple large economies in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium each economy has a monetary policymaker that attempts to control the economy through the use of a linear nominal interest rate feedback rule we show how the determinacy of worldwide equilibrium depends on the joint behavior of policymakers worldwide we also show how indeterminacy exposes all economies to endogenous volatility even ones where monetary policy may be judged appropriate from a closed economy perspective we construct and discuss two quantitative cases in the 1970s worldwide equilibrium was characterized by a two dimensional indeterminacy despite u s adherence to a version of the taylor principle in the last 15 years worldwide equilibrium was still characterized by a one dimensional indeterminacy leaving all economies exposed to endogenous volatility our analysis provides a rationale for a type of international policy coordination and the gains to coordination in the sense of avoiding indeterminacy may be large

international trade and the sustainability footprint a practical criterion for its assessment a simple and minimal criterion for sustainability is that the value of natural capital plus manufactured capital be not decreasing on the basis of any individual country or region the above simple comparison may be misleading as it does not take account of the production of goods for consumption in other countries regions via international trade in other terms the full environmental footprint of a country may not be properly assessed a method of calculating a weak sustainability criterion has been established for both a closed economy approach and an open economy approach there are significant differences between the open and closed economies measures for several regions particularly the middle east overall global sustainability on this criterion has been positive and increasing using a difference equation approach a further analysis has been made of the average proportional rate of change of global sustainability between 1980 and 1990 and its various regional and structural components have been determined these indicate that most of global sustainability growth can be attributed to western europe other asia and japan particularly through high savings ratios the usa on the other hand has made a very small net contribution to the growth in global sustainability

genuine savings and sustainability genuine savings gs has emerged as the leading economic indicator of sustainable economic development at the country level it derives from the literatures on weak sustainability wealth accounting and national income accounting we discuss the theoretical underpinnings of gs focusing on the relationship between changes in a nation s extended capital stock and the future path of consumption the indicator has entered widespread use propelled by the world bank s publications despite its varying performance as a predictor for future consumption notwithstanding the extensive body of literature reviewed promising future research avenues are identified

allocating ecological footprints to final consumption categories with input output analysis we present and discuss a method that allows the disaggregation of national ecological footprints by economic sector detailed final demand category sub national area or socio economic group this is done by combining existing national footprint accounts with input output analysis calculations in the empirical part are carried out by using supply and use tables for the united kingdom covering the reporting period 2000 ecological footprints are allocated to detailed household consumption activities following the coicop classification system and to a detailed breakdown of capital investment the method presented enables the calculation of comparable ecological footprints on all sub national levels and for different socio economic groups the novelty of the approach lies in the use of input output analysis to re allocate existing footprint accounts in the detail of disaggregation by consumption category and in the expanded use of household expenditure data this extends the potential for applications of the ecological footprint concept and helps to inform scenarios policies and strategies on sustainable consumption the method described in this paper can be applied to every country for which a national footprint account exists and where appropriate economic and environmental accounts are available the approach helps to save time in data collection and improves the consistency between ecological footprint estimates for a particular human society from different researchers for these reasons the suggested methodology includes crucial steps on the way towards a standardisation of ecological footprint accounts

net national product as an indicator of sustainability net national product nnp can potentially serve several objectives among others to measure value added and to be an indicator of welfare in the aftermath of the world commission on environment and development however it also seems important to investigate whether the concept of nnp can serve as an indicator of sustainability my point of departure following hicks 1946 ch 14 is therefore to require that nnp should measure what can be consumed in the present period without reducing future consumption possibilities and in line with this to argue that the nnp should equal the maximum per capita consumption level that can be sustained if sufficiently many facilitating assumptions are made then a concept of nnp that serves as an exact indicator of sustainability can easily be constructed for instance for a closed economy with a constant population a stationary technology and with only one capital good it follows that the present does not reduce future consumption possibilities if and only if it does not decrease the stock of the single capital good hence under the assumption that the one capital good k is identical to the one consumption good x nnp defined as y x k measures the maximal sustainable consumption at time t because then x y is equivalent to k the purpose of this note is to establish that with multiple capital goods it is not in general possible to construct an exact indicator of sustainability on the

nominal sovereign debt i show that reputation alone can sustain nominal sovereign debt which is subject to both the risks of default and opportunistic devaluations nominal debt combined with a countercyclical exchange rate policy allows more hedging against shocks than real savings if markets are incomplete thus the loss of either repayment or monetary reputation severely affects the government s ability to smooth consumption the model offers a simple explanation for the bulow and rogoff critique while simultaneously helping explain the issuance of nominal sovereign bonds by emerging economies the model also helps explain why many governments borrow and save at the same time

national accounts and environmental resources in the paper optimal growth theory is used to derive the appropriate definition of the net national product concept when there are environmental resources and environmental damage to take into account the basic conclusions are that conventional defined np should be corrected by deducting environmental damage and adding the value of the net change of all resources

capital theory and the measurement of sustainable development an indicator of weak sustainability the measurement of sustainable development is not without considerable difficulties yet this should not detract from the positive advances that can be made in this direction in this paper we present one form that a weak sustainability indicator can take derived from a simple but intuitive savings rule it incorporates the idea that the level of overall capital stock should be non decreasing although subject to qualification at this stage some interesting results emerge from the application of the rule to 18 countries

colombian international trade from a physical perspective towards an ecological prebisch thesis abstract prebisch s approach to economic development was based on the notion that there is an international historical division of labour peripheral countries are specialised in exporting primary goods while centre countries export industrial goods the terms of trade for peripheral countries tend to deteriorate this approach can be extended to ecological issues the international centre periphery division does not only involve the monetary exchange of goods and capital but also the physical exchange in which southern countries provide materials and energy so that northern countries can develop their socioeconomic metabolism this metabolic process is guaranteed through cheap prices for primary goods this paper aims to apply and extend prebisch s thought on unequal exchange both monetary and ecological in relation to colombian trade in the period 1970 2002 using material flow analysis

trade and the environment from a southern perspective the relationship between free trade and the environment is one of the main issues of contention between environmental and ecological economics environmental economics assumes a positive relationship between free trade economic growth and environmental policies environmental externalities may cause important damage however trade is not to be blamed for this instead the fault lies with policy inadequacies at the national level on the other hand some ecological economists criticise the assumptions of environmental economics especially the immobility of production factors and the positive correlation between income and environmental quality they plead for measures to prevent deterioration of northern environmental standards in a race to the bottom due to ecological dumping from the south in this paper we argue that neither environmental economics nor northern ecological economics take into account the structural conditions determining the international trade system based on some new empirical evidence on material flows we stress the notion of environmental cost shifting if physical and political ecology perspectives are adopted a southern approach to the trade and environment issue may arise 2001 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

japanese investors choice of joint ventures versus wholly owned subsidiaries in the us the role of market barriers and firm capabilities this study analyzes how market barriers and firm capabilities affect multinationals choice of joint ventures versus wholly owned subsidiaries abroad in the study we compile a vector of variables that distinguish between industry specific barriers and firm specific capabilities to analyze japanese investors ownership decisions in the us our results in general support the hypothesis that japanese investors facing high market barriers in the target industry are more likely to choose joint ventures while those possessing strong competitive capabilities are more likely to set up wholly owned subsidiaries specifically marketing variables are more influential than technological factors in determining the choice of partial versus full ownership these findings however vary across sub samples that represent low versus high tech industries and consumer versus industrial products

expectation traps and discretion abstract we develop a dynamic model with optimizing private agents and a benevolent optimizing monetary authority that cannot commit to future policies we characterize the set of sustainable equilibria and discuss the implications for institutional reform we show that there are equilibria in which the monetary authority pursues inflationary policies because that is what private agents expect we call such equilibria expectation traps alternative institutional arrangements for the conduct of monetary policy which impose limited forms of commitment on the policymaker can eliminate expectation traps journal of economic literatureclassification numbers e31 e42 e50 e51 e58

real balance effects and monetary policy i introduction modern literature on monetary policy rules employs new keynesian optimizing models that do not explicitly include monetary aggregates see e g rotemberg and woodford 1997 clarida et al 1999 taylor 1999 in these models the demand for output derives from the log linearization of the standard euler equation characterizing household s saving decisions the real money stock does not enter the is relation and therefore monetary policy affects output and inflation only through its effect on the real interest rate when the nominal interest rate is the policy instrument it is not necessary to specify a money market equilibrium condition see romer 2000 the practice of neglecting monetary aggregates in monetary policy analysis has recently been questioned by meltzer 1999 mccallum 2001 and nelson 2002 2003 in particular mccallum 2001 points out that although no explicit term involving money appears in the standard new keynesian setup long run inflation can still be pinned down by the economy steady state nominal money growth rate moreover mccallum 2000 2001 andres et al 2001 kremer et al 2003 woodford 2003 ireland 2004a and collard and dellas 2005 analyze the case in which the resources used by consumers in conducting transactions are modeled by a nonseparable function of consumption and real money balances meltzer 1999 2001 argues that changes in real monetary base generate effects on real aggregate demand not summarized by the real interest rate on short term securities nelson 2003 emphasizes the role of money in the transmission mechanism both as a proxy for a whole spectrum of rates of return and as an indicator variable which contains information about the state of the economy the main aim of the present article is to provide additional microfoundations for an explicit role for money in the current macroeconomic debate in particular i derive a real balance effect that explicitly enters the is relation within an optimizing general equilibrium framework of the new keynesian type according to de scitovszky 1941 haberler 1946 pigou 1943 and patinkin 1965 a change in real money balances has an impact on the real financial wealth of consumers and therefore affects consumption and output notably this effect is not considered in traditional models there is in fact empirical evidence showing that real monetary base growth is a significant determinant of consumption and output gap in both the united states and in the united kingdom see chari et al 1995 meltzer 1999 nelson 2002 the present article extends the dynamic stochastic new keynesian setup with money in the utility function by introducing overlapping generations as modeled by yaari 1965 and blanchard 1985 there are good reasons to base the demand side of the economy on a discrete time stochastic monetary version of the yaari blanchard model first this kind of extension allows one to maintain the main characteristics of the so called new neoclassical synthesis that is forward looking behavior of optimizing agents and incomplete nominal adjustment of prices featured in new keynesian theories goodfriend and king 1997 second the derivation of the real balance effect does not require nonseparability in the utility function thus the implications are analytically more tractable 1 third my framework is more general because it includes the immortal representative agent setup as a particular case my analysis attempts to examine whether the presence of an explicit real balance effect in the is relation helps evaluate the role for money in designing monetary policy rules i focus on basic issues concerning the design of monetary policy rules specifically i investigate whether it is necessary for monetary policy to overreact to inflation by raising the nominal interest rate by more than the observed increase in inflation to rule out equilibrium multiplicity

institutional ecological economics abstract new institutional economics and its forerunners have we argue made important contributions to the evolving agenda of ecological economics the conceptualisation of environmental problems as instances of interdependence and the acknowledgement of positive transaction costs are key insights into the nature of environmental problems we also discuss how plurality of behavioural motivations and limited cognitive capacity have important implications for environmental decision making and its analysis we show how evolutionary and collective action theories offer complementary takes on the choice and change of environmental governance institutions and how the concept of social capital can enrich analyses of environmental governance we conclude that an emerging institutional ecological economics has the greatest relative advantage in analysing the design implementation and effectiveness of environmental governance solutions

an empirical examination of the pollution haven hypothesis for india towards a green leontief paradox using input output analysis we examine whether india can be regarded as a pollution haven we calculate the extra co2 so2 and nox emissions induced by 1 billion rupees of additional exports this is compared with the reduction of indian pollution caused by an import increase of equal size in contrast to what the pollution haven hypothesis states for developing countries we find that india considerably gains from extra trade comparing 1996 1997 with 1991 1992 the gains have only increased indicating that india has moved further away from being a pollution haven the outcome is robust to changes in the underlying assumptions

predation reputation and entry deterrence abstract economists often argue that predatory practices are irrational since there exist cheaper or more certain means to gain or maintain a monopoly our gametheoretic equilibrium analysis suggests that if a firm is threatened by several potential entrants then predation may be rational against early entrants even if it is costly when viewed in isolation because it yields a reputation which deters other entrants asymmetric information plays a crucial role in our analysis since it provides the rationale for entrants to base their expectations of the firm s future behavior on its past actions the analysis also suggests methods to treat general reputational phenomena

asset market participation monetary policy rules and the great inflation this paper argues that limited asset market participation is crucial in explaining u s macroeconomic performance and monetary policy before the 1980s and their changes thereafter in an otherwise conventional sticky price model standard aggregate demand logic is inverted at low enough asset market participation interest rate increases become expansionary passive monetary policy ensures equilibrium determinacy and maximizes welfare this suggests that federal reserve policy in the pre volcker era was better than conventional wisdom implies we provide empirical evidence consistent with this hypothesis and study the relative merits of changes in structure and shocks for reproducing the conquest of the great inflation and the great moderation

self fulfilling expectations and the inflation of the 1970s evidence from the livingston survey abstract using survey data on expectations we examine whether the response of monetary policy to sudden movements in expected inflation contributed to the persistent high inflation of the 1970s the evidence suggests that prior to 1979 the fed accommodated temporary shocks to expected inflation which then led to persistent increases in actual inflation we do not find this behavior in the post 1979 data among commonly cited factors oil and fiscal shocks do not appear to have triggered an increase in expected inflation that eventually resulted in higher actual inflation

time consistent policy and persistent changes in inflation abstract this paper presents a model of dynamically consistent monetary policy that explains changes in inflation over time in the model as in the postwar united states adverse supply shocks trigger increases in inflation high inflation persists until a tough policymaker causes a recession to disinflate the paper also proposes an approach to selecting a unique equilibrium in infinite horizon models of monetary policy

signalling effects of monetary policy we develop a dynamic general equilibrium model in which the policy rate signals the central bank s view about macroeconomic developments to price setters the model is estimated with likelihood methods on a u s data set that includes the survey of professional forecasters as a measure of price setters inflation expectations this model improves upon existing perfect information models in explaining why in the data inflation expectations respond with delays to monetary impulses and remain disanchored for years in the 1970s u s monetary policy is found to signal persistent inflationary shocks explaining why inflation and inflation expectations were so persistently heightened the signalling effects of monetary policy also explain why inflation expectations adjusted more sluggishly than inflation after the robust monetary tightening of the 1980s

energy and carbon embodied in the international trade of brazil an input output approach abstract all goods and services produced in an economy are directly and or indirectly associated with energy use and according to the type of fuel utilized with co2 emissions as well international trade is an important factor in shaping the industrial structure of a country and consequently in affecting a country s energy use and co2 emissions this study applies input output techniques to the brazilian economy to evaluate the total impacts of international trade on its energy use and co2 emissions a commodity by industry io model in hybrid units energy commodities in physical units and non energy commodities in monetary units is applied to the brazilian economy in 1995 results show that total energy embodied in the exports of non energy goods of brazil equals 831 pj while total carbon embodied is 13 5 mtc these amounts are larger than the relevant amounts embodied in the imports of non energy goods respectively 679 pj and 9 9 mtc these figures are better understood by contrasting them with the total energy use and the corresponding total carbon emissions of the brazilian economy in 1995 estimated by this work 6781 pj and 99 4 mtc respectively this means that international inflows and outflows of energy embodied in non energy goods are in the order of 10 and 12 of the total energy use while inflows and outflows of carbon embodied in non energy goods are approximately 10 and 14 of the corresponding total carbon emissions of the brazilian economy in 1995 the general picture is that brazil is not only a net exporter of energy 153 pj and of carbon 3 6 mtc embodied in the non energy goods internationally traded by the country in 1995 but also that each dollar earned with exports embodied 40 more energy and 56 more carbon than each dollar spent on imports these findings suggest that brazilian policy makers should be concerned about the extra impacts international trade policy may have on energy use and carbon emissions of the country

examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities part 1 a technical note on combining input output and ecological footprint analysis in recent years there have been a number of attempts to develop a more comprehensive approach to the issue of measuring resource use and or pollution generation embodied in trade flows including contributions that combine input output techniques and ecological footprint analysis in this two part paper we describe how to enumerate the resource and or pollution content of inter regional and inter national trade flows part 1 and we present a literature review of recent methodological and empirical developments part 2 it is straightforward in principle to extend the basic input output approach to capture international trade flows however in practice problems of data availability and compatibility and of computability of extended input output matrices mean that simplifying assumptions are generally applied but with the implications of these assumptions often not made fully explicit what appears to be absent from previous applications is an account of the analytical method by which ecological footprints should ideally be estimated in an international input output accounting analysis this allows an explicit analysis of the problems that prevent the application of the full method and identification of the most appropriate short cut methods in a transparent way the objective of this paper is to provide such an account

the perils of nominal targets a monetary authority can be committed to pursuing an inflation price level or nominal gdp target yet systematically fail to achieve the prescribed goal constrained by the zero lower bound on the policy rate the monetary authority is unable to implement its objectives when private sector expectations stray far enough from the target low inflation expectations become self fulfilling resulting in an additional markov equilibrium in which the monetary authority falls short of the nominal target average output is below its efficient level and the policy rate is typically low introducing a stabilization goal for long term nominal rates can implement a unique markov equilibrium without fully compromising stabilization policy

efficient sourcing and debt financing in imperfect product markets supplier relations play an important role in determining a firm s product market strategy and position by affecting the cost and quality of the product produced by the firm these relations are especially significant because the cost of purchased materials for an average firm is more than half its total sales in this paper we model the adverse incentives of a firm that sources from a competitive supplier industry we show that a firm s propensity to behave opportunistically towards its suppliers raises the firm s input costs by decreasing the number of suppliers servicing it this results in a suboptimal production decision compared to the firm s first best choice we argue that an appropriate level of debt financing alters the shareholder incentives and mitigates the hold up problem further we also show that at the optimal debt level the firm produces its first best level of output

excess capacity as a commitment to promote entry this paper studies dominant firms incentives for holding capacities in excess of their production requirements the explanation most frequently put forward is to view behaviour of this kind as an attempt to set up barriers to entry as emphasized by spence 1977 holding excess capacity is a relatively effective form of entry deterrence it has the great advantage of constituting a credible threat to potential entrants because a large fraction of capacity costs are usually irreversible the view that holding excess capacities constitutes a form of anticompetitive behaviour has to be qualified however part of the motivation for holding them may well be of a more benign nature many large firms maintain economic relations with other smaller upstream or downstream companies quite often they make up a considerable part of these companies total activities the companies usually have to invest certain specific sunk costs into their relationship with the dominant firm before deciding on these sunk investments they will often like to have some assurance that the dominant firm will not behave opportunistically once these sunk costs have been incurred by opportunistic behaviour we mean a strategy whereby the dominant firm reduces the quantity it demands or supplies at any given price to such an extent that the companies can no longer obtain an economic rate of return on their sunk investments in the absence of long run contracts a dominant firm s decision to invest into excess capacities may well be an effective means to give the upstream or downstream firms the assurance they require the essential message is thus as follows rather than or in addition to being a threat to potential entrants excess capacity held by a dominant firm may also constitute a promise to upstream suppliers or downstream retailers they constitute an effective promise to buy or supply a sufficiently large quantity at any given price to ensure that the upstream or downstream firm

trading spaces calculating embodied ecological footprints in international trade using a product land use matrix plum abstract nations import and export biophysical resources with many ecosystems worldwide under mounting stress countries may be increasingly interested in knowing the extent and origin of their ecological imports and dependencies in this paper the ecological footprint is used as a tool to measure the biophysical as opposed to financial value of international trade flows this paper attempts to answer the following question how large of an ecological footprint does a given country exert inside the borders of each of its trading partners records in the un comtrade bilateral trade database are multiplied by a matrix of per product footprint yield coefficients to translate from values in dollars and tonnes to units of hectares the results show that the largest interregional flows are from latin to north america and from north america to asia pacific grouping countries by gdp high and middle income countries appear in footprint terms to trade predominantly with other high and middle income countries and much less with low income countries

a consumption based approach to environmental kuznets curves using the ecological footprint indicator recent research suggests that consumption based measures offer an insightful perspective on the debate on the relationship between economic growth and the environment in this article we deepen the

time consistency of optimal monetary and fiscal policy in a small open economy abstract this paper characterizes conditions under which optimal monetary and fiscal policy is time consistent in a stylized small open economy with a flexible foreign exchange rate regime it shows that these conditions depend on the way in which leisure is assumed to enter preferences and or on the process which productivity is assumed to follow this paper further argues that these conditions may fail to be sufficient if the small open economy implements a fixed foreign exchange rate regime thus a credible fixed exchange rate regime does not necessarily help render optimal policy time consistent

china usa trade indicators for equitable and environmentally balanced resource exchange abstract trade needs to be evaluated by more comprehensive indicators that complement market based economic value the emergy accounting ema method proved to be a valuable tool to help address trade complexity by means of environmental quality oriented indicators ema is used in this paper to evaluate the environmental and resource flows involved in china united states usa trade in the years 1993 2000 and 2008 results show that china emergy exports i e exports of raw and less processed resources exceed the imports from usa although the money received by china from exports is higher than the money paid for imports the real imbalance relies in the huge amount of resources that outflow from china hardly compensated by the value of imports in terms of support to chinese economy the conclusion is that trade accounting methods should include holistic valuations beyond the financial costs of traded goods policy implications of these results are discussed

imbalance of carbon emissions embodied in the us japan trade temporal change and driving factors abstract in us japan trade japan ran both economic export surplus and export co2 emission surplus with the us positive net monetary exports for japan were actually a kind of economic losses of the us while positive net export co2 emissions or net co2 emissions embodied in us japan trade were regarded as pollution transfer from u s to japan however due to lack of unified measurement units and standards between the two research fields it is difficult to directly assess whether positive effects of u s via carbon transfer outweigh negative effects caused by economic losses the study transforms absolute values of net monetary exports and net export co2 emissions from 2000 to 2011 in us japan trade into two ratios the ratio of net monetary exports to gdp of u s and the ratio of net embodied co2 emissions to total co2 emissions of the us by comparison the result shows that on average net monetary exports between u s and japan accounted for 0 45 of american gdp while ratio of net export emissions to aggregate consumption based co2 emissions of u s kept about 0 20 during the research period concerned which indicated that negative effects of economic losses in u s outweighed positive effects via carbon transfer in us japan trade furthermore a structural analysis of co2 emissions embodied in us japan trade during the 11 years is given the most significant driver was emission coefficients defined as co2 emissions per unit of energy consumption the driving force of emission coefficients led to dramatic reduction in co2 flows from japan to the us and thus caused decrease of net export emissions which also explained the major reason for the low ratio of export emissions to total co2 emissions of the us finally according to sectoral distributions of co2 flows between japan and the us emission sources of two countries presented different characteristics

time consistent monetary policy with endogenous price rigidity abstract i characterize time consistent equilibrium in an economy with price rigidity and an optimizing monetary authority operating under discretion firms have the option to increase their frequency of price change at a cost in response to higher inflation previous studies which assume a constant degree of price rigidity across inflation regimes find two time consistent equilibria one with low inflation the other with high inflation in contrast when price rigidity is endogenous the high inflation equilibrium ceases to exist hence time consistent equilibrium is unique this result depends on two features of the analysis 1 a plausible quantitative specification of the fixed cost of price change and 2 the presence of an arbitrarily small cost of inflation that is independent of price rigidity