an analysis of feed in tariff remuneration models implications for renewable energy investment recent experience from around the world suggests that feed in tariffs fits are the most effective policy to encourage the rapid and sustained deployment of renewable energy there are several different ways to structure a fit policy each with its own strengths and weaknesses this paper presents an overview of seven different ways to structure the remuneration of a fit policy divided into two broad categories those in which remuneration is dependent on the electricity price and those that remain independent from it this paper examines the advantages and disadvantages of these different fit models and concludes with an analysis of these design options with a focus on their implications both for investors and for society

why has u s inflation become harder to forecast we examine whether the u s rate of price inflation has become harder to forecast and to the extent that it has what changes in the inflation process have made it so the main finding is that the univariate inflation process is well described by an unobserved component trend cycle model with stochastic volatility or equivalently an integrated moving average process with time varying parameters this model explains a variety of recent univariate inflation forecasting puzzles and begins to explain some multivariate inflation forecasting puzzles as well

a defense of the fomc we defend the forecasting performance of the fomc from the recent criticism of christina and david romer our argument is that the fomc forecasts a worst case scenario that it uses to design decisions that will work well enough are robust despite possible misspecification of its model because these fomc forecasts are not predictions of what the fomc expects to occur under its model it is inappropriate to compare their performance in a horse race against other forecasts our interpretation of the fomc as a robust policymaker can explain all thefindings of the romers and rationalises differences between fomc forecasts and forecasts published in the greenbook by the staff of the federal reserve system

alcohol consumption and human capital a retrospective study of the literature grossman proposed an individual s health can be viewed as one aspect of their human capital following this line of thought a number of recent papers have reported a positive impact of alcohol consumption on earnings the rationale for the existence of such a relationship is the positive impact of alcohol on physical and mental health we conduct a meta analysis to determine whether such factors as the estimation technique the presence of ex drinkers in the sample possible sample selection bias and publication bias may all contribute to these findings an additional suggestion for the positive relationship between alcohol and wages is the presence of a common set of personality traits that determines drinking behaviour and also leads to higher earnings we examine this relationship by reviewing the literature that investigates if the personality influencing aspects of alcohol consumption influences measures of human capital we also survey the significant body of research that has examined how alcohol consumption has been found to influence educational outcomes and the work force participation of problem drinkers

the efficiency of ireland s renewable energy feed in tariff refit for wind generation ireland s renewable energy feed in tariff refit for wind generation has some unusual features making it different from other refit schemes around the world by utilising an annual floor price element the scheme presents an option value to the contract holder which to date has gone unnoticed or unvalued in the market by employing an option pricing framework this paper has quantified for the first time in the public domain the expected costs and value of the irish refit support scheme for wind generation while the cost of the refit scheme to the electricity consumer appears to be lower than the cost of schemes in other countries significant inefficiencies exist as a result of the structure of the scheme the irish refit scheme is contrasted with a single fixed price support scheme and the analysis suggests that the fixed price scheme can provide a similar or greater incentive to the wind sector at half the cost to the end electricity consumer and may also prove more compatible with consumers desire to reduce inter year electricity portfolio cost volatility

measurement of human capital input across countries a method based on the laborer s income abstract i propose the aggregate output divided by the wage rate of an industrial laborer in a country as a measure of the aggregate human capital input for that country i use this method to compare the human capital inputs for 45 countries of diverse output levels i find that human capital input differs between the lowest income and the highest income countries by a factor of 2 2 or 2 8 depending on the inclusion of outlier countries this is significant but small relative to the results from the method based on years of schooling

the impact of children on wages job tenure and the division of household labour in the absence of typical exclusion restrictions covariance restrictions are used to obtain estimates of the effects of children on household behaviour using data from the psid on two age samples children are found to have a significant impact on many household decisions however while in the young sample exogenous fertility cannot be rejected in the older sample this is not the case finally if the average household had one less child the male female wage differential would decrease by 9 5 there has been enormous interest in learning the impact of children on various household behaviours especially those of the mother in particular there has been much empirical research on the effect of fertility on female allocation and value of time angrist and evans 1998 gronau 1988 1977 1976 mroz 1987 rosenzweig and wolpin 1980 fleischer and rhodes 1979 cain and dooley 1976 heckman 1974 gronau 1973 etc in either case the inability to find appropriate instruments for fertility is troublesome fleischer and rhodes 1979 conclude that their inability to represent the fertility variable with a suitable instrument is disappointing and willis 1987 wrote i t has proven difficult to find enough well measured exogenous variables to permit cause and effect relationships to be extracted from correlations among factors such as the delay of marriage decline of childbearing growth of divorce and increased female labour force participation of related interest is the effect of fertility on market wages waldfogel 1998 hersch and stratton 1997 korenman and neumark 1992 hersch 1991 moore and wilson 1982 hill 1979 cain and dooley 1976 and male behaviour browning 1992 pencavel 1986 controlling for the endogeneity of fertility is likely to be vital in any model of household time allocation browning 1992 stated finally labor supply and fertility may be jointly determined either by basic economic principles or because in the population preferences for having children and for working at ajob are negatively correlated despite the theoretical claims the empirical question of whether or not fertility is endogenous has yet to be answered

monetary policy rules macroeconomic stability and inflation a view from the trenches i estimate a forward looking monetary policy reaction function for the federal reserve for the periods before and after paul volcker s appointment as chairman in 1979 using information that was available to the fomc in real time from 1966 to 1995 the results suggest broad similarities in policy and point to a forward looking approach to policy consistent with a strong reaction to inflation forecasts during both periods this contradicts the hypothesis based on analysis with ex post constructed data that the instability of the great inflation was the result of weak fomc policy responses to expected inflation a difference is that prior to volcker s appointment policy was too activist in reacting to perceived output gaps that retrospectively proved overambitious drawing on contemporaneous accounts of fomc policy i discuss the implications of the findings for alternative explanations of the great inflation and the improvement in macroeconomic stability since then

the estimation of human capital by administrative archives in a static and longitudinal perspective the case of milan this paper focuses on the estimation of the latent variable human capital hc at disaggregated level worker by available routinely institutional data flows in particular we utilize the lombardy region administrative archive employment centers of the province of milan collecting information about careers of workers in the private sector of the milan area and administrative flows collecting mandatory workers individual income tax returns filed with the national internal revenue service first we propose and empirically estimate hc scores in a static referred to 2004 framework by means of a realistic measurement model within causal relationships among endogenous and exogenous investment hc indicators furthermore the model also specifies a set of concomitant indicators that not belonging to hc investment indicators have causal impact on endogenous variables and on hc scores too second we propose a longitudinal analysis period 2000 2004 aimed to investigate how workers earned income growth rates vary over workers educational levels and other personal characteristics the empirical results of both analyses confirm the characteristics of the italian job market denoted by marked inequalities and knowledge regarding the process of school to work transition characterized by a weak incidence of education on longitudinal trajectories of earned income

do wages rise with job seniority a reassessment the authors provide new estimates of the return to job seniority using a dataset similar to that employed in joseph altonji and robert shakotko do wages rise with job seniority review of economic studies 1987 and robert topel specific capital mobility and wages journal of political economy 1991 they consider the strengths and weaknesses of these studies treatment of economy wide trends their dating conventions for tenure and wages their handling of wage observations that might span multiple jobs and their estimation approaches re estimation points to an effect often years of tenure on the log wage equal to 11 which is above the preferred estimate of altonji and shakotko but far below that of topel changes in earnings distributions and in the employment relationship motivate the examination of more recent data perhaps surprisingly the return to tenure has probably increased over time

the determinants of earnings a behavioral approach we survey the determinants of earnings and propose a framework for understanding labor market success we suggest that the advantages of the children of successful parents go considerably beyond the benefits of superior education the inheritance of wealth or the genetic inheritance of cognitive ability we suggest that noncognitive personality variables such as attitudes towards risk ability to adapt to new economic conditions hard work and the rate of time preference affect both earning and the transmission of economic status across generations

renewable energy certificate mechanism in india a preliminary assessment abstract the indian national action plan for climate change napcc envisages several measures to address global climate change one of the important measures identified involves increasing the share of renewable energy in total electricity consumption in the country this would mean napcc envisages renewable energy to constitute approximately 15 of the energy mix of india by 2020 to achieve the target set by the napcc indian ministry of power launched renewable energy certificate rec mechanism in november 2010 however participation in the rec markets is low and recs have failed to attract significant investment so far in this study a preliminary attempt has been made to assess the performance of existing rec mechanism in india after highlighting the salient features of the indian renewable energy policy framework a brief description of renewable purchase obligation rpo and source specific rpos for different states is discussed along with an overview of rec market in india to date the performance of indian rec mechanism is evaluated by cost competiveness decentralized distributed generation and renewable energy portfolio diversity and their effectiveness has also been measured on the basis of the available data although it is difficult to make any conclusive remark on the success or failure of rec mechanism due to its short experience this study examines the process to date to come out with some recommendations which can be used to fine tune the functioning of existing rec market in india for instance rec price bounds should be revised because it has been not explicitly supporting cost competiveness by offering 60 33 higher average price than the existing average feed in tariff fit it is also observed that state wise contribution in registered capacity is skewed towards few states like tamil nadu 27 maharashtra 23 and uttar pradesh 22 which puts pressure on policy makers to restructure the existing rec mechanism

bias in federal reserve inflation forecasts is the federal reserve irrational or just cautious abstract inflation forecasts of the federal reserve seem to have systematically under predicted inflation from the fourth quarter of 1968 until volcker s appointment as chairman and to systematically over predict it afterwards until the second quarter of 1998 furthermore under quadratic loss commercial forecasts seem to have information not contained in those forecasts to investigate the cause of this apparent irrationality this paper recovers the loss function implied by federal reserve s inflation forecasts the results suggest that the cost of having inflation above an implicit time varying target was larger than the cost of having inflation below it for the period since volcker and that the opposite was true for the pre volcker era once these asymmetries are taken into account the federal reserve s inflation forecasts are found to be rational

feed in tariff outlook in malaysia this paper aims to present the feed in tariff fit outlook in malaysia which is in the process of being enacted through a renewable energy re policy by the government of malaysia gom a brief in policies leading towards the re policy and the potential of each re sources under fit mechanism have been discussed the successful utilisation of re source in electricity generation and the fit implementation globally are positive indicators to implement fit in malaysia potentials of fit on biomass biogas and solid waste energy are currently very promising in malaysia but it is solar energy which is predicted to be the main re of the future surpassing all other res

assessment of the feed in tariff mechanism for renewable energies in taiwan abstract due to taiwan s lack of natural resources dependence on imported energy and pursuit of sustainable development renewable energies are extremely important for taiwan s future energy supply since taiwan s feed in tariff fit is still in its initial stage one must examine whether the current system is compatible with a well designed fit scheme this study examines the main features of taiwan s fit system and assesses design options using several criteria additionally one of the most important elements of a fit scheme namely a tariff system is discussed taiwan s fit scheme has the design options required by well functioning fits and the guaranteed return tariff system coincides with the spirit underlying leading global fits however many issues such as setting goals by stages refinement of the tariff calculation methodology and elimination of other non economic barriers must be addressed to achieve future developmental goals and green industry growth

fixed feed in tariff versus premium a review of the current spanish system a b s t r a c t since 1998 the spanish government established a feed in system where res e generators could choose between two alternatives fixed feed in tariff and premium nowadays all res e 1 can be sold in the electricity market getting an additional premium except for solar photovoltaic one important novelty established in 2007 is a cap and floor system for facilities under the premium option the aim of this paper is to analyze and compare these two alternative options fixed fit and premiums which coexist at the same time in spain describe the evolution of both systems and evaluate its performance the introduction of this support system in spain led to very good results in terms of res e deployment the main advantage of the premium option is that it is a scheme integrated in the electricity market one disadvantage is that it can occasionally lead to overcompensation one way to try to avoid it is to set a cap value in order to evaluate the performance of this dual support system not only res e deployment has been assessed but also the policy stability the adequacy of res e production to the electricity demand pattern and the changes in the investors behaviour

the determinants of black white differences in early employment careers search layoffs quits and endogenous wage growth this paper studies the transition from school to full time employment and subsequent labor mobility during the first five postschooling years for several recent cohorts of black and white male terminal high school graduates using unique data from the 1979 youth cohort of the national longitudinal surveys of labor market experience a constrained optimization model of labor force dynamics is implemented empirically integrating features of models previously described in the literature the estimates of the model provide quantitative evidence on underlying structural differences in labor market constraints faced by blacks and whites for example while blacks have overall a substantially smaller wage return to work experience and face a less disperse wage offer distribution blacks face a higher probability of receiving job offers

schooling and economic well being the role of nonmarket effects standard estimates of the economic value of additional schooling based on earnings differences associated with differences in the level of schooling attained cover only a portion of the total effects of education that are valued by citizens we first identify a catalog of nonmarketed effects many of which have been recently studied by economists and then propose a procedure for estimating a willingness to pay value for these effects using empirical estimates of the magnitude of a selection of these effects found in the literature we calculate willingness to pay values using our proposed procedure these illustrative calculations suggest that standard estimates of the benefit of incremental schooling substantially understate the full value of such investments

backward and forward looking shadow prices in inclusive wealth accounting an example of renewable energy capital abstract attaching weights to the list of capital assets is crucial in inclusive wealth accounting and sustainability assessments these weights or shadow prices can be constructed in theory by looking prospectively at future social profits that the capital in question is expected to yield in practice however both backward and forward looking shadow prices are used this study confirms that these two approaches are theoretically equivalent under strong assumptions and reviews how and why the two approaches are taken the two approaches are then applied to renewable energy capital rec which has rarely been done in either produced or natural capital accounting and sustainability assessments renewable energy capital provides an ideal example with which to compare the two approaches as it is a class of produced capital that substitutes both produced and natural capital the numerical results of both approaches demonstrate that renewable energy capital starts to account for as large a share as natural capital does if not produced capital or inclusive wealth in those countries where natural capital is poorly endowed and investment in renewable energy capital has been witnessed

monetary policy rules based on real time data this paper examines the magnitude of informational problems associated with the implementation and interpretation of simple monetary policy rules using taylor s rule as an example i demonstrate that real time policy recommendations differ considerably from those obtained with ex post revised data further estimated policy reaction functions based on ex post revised data provide misleading descriptions of historical policy and obscure the behavior suggested by information available to the federal reserve in real time these results indicate that reliance on the information actually available to policy makers in real time is essential for the analysis of monetary policy rules

feed in tariff mechanisms for large scale wind power in china abstract in recent years with the large scale and centralized development of the wind power industry in china wind power curtailment has become increasingly serious in order to promote wind power consumption in china this paper designs four kinds of feed in tariff fit mechanisms a double track fit mechanism based on a ratio a time of use benchmarking tariff mechanism a net back pricing mechanism based on the inter provincial wind power consumption market and an fit mechanism based on negotiation then we establish a benefit distribution model to analyze the wind power stakeholders benefits finally based on the four kinds of fit mechanisms and the benefit distribution model we propose the best fit mechanisms for the various electricity market circumstances in china in order to provide a reference to formulate wind fit to promote the consumption of wind power and to advance the sustainable development of renewable energy in developing countries

policies to accelerate the growth of offshore wind energy sector in india abstract india s power generation capacity needs to be augmented to support the growing demands for electricity india which has predominantly used fossil fuels to power its generators need to make a switch to clean energy fuels but renewable sources form a miniscule portion 26 gw 12 of india s overall installed power capacity 210 gw there is no contribution from offshore wind farms to the energy basket for india as there is no policy framework to encourage the development of offshore wind farms several european countries have tapped the offshore wind energy potential to reduce their dependence on adopted by these countries to identify the core components 21 of them of robust policy intervention a detailed questionnaire was administered to 181 stakeholders of wind energy in india to seek their feedback on these building blocks these core components variables in research parlance are then subjected to factor analysis to understand the underlying structure of the variables the factor analysis logically reduces these 21 variables into five factors government support fiscal and quota based incentives availability of local expertise capital for investments and building an enabling r d ecosystem which are then fed into a logistic regression model as independent variables to predict the probability of growth of offshore wind energy dependent variable in the country the logistic regression model gives the weight the impact of these independent variables in influencing the growth of offshore wind energy in india it emerges that government support fiscal and quota based incentives and building an enabling r d ecosystem have a much higher impact on the growth of offshore wind energy for india this paper fills the gap of absence of an empirically tested framework on offshore wind energy policy for india

federal reserve information and the behavior of interest rates this paper tests for the existence of asymmetric information between the federal reserve and the public by examining federal reserve and commercial inflation forecasts it demonstrates that the federal reserve has considerable information about inflation beyond what is known to commercial forecasters it also shows that monetary policy actions provide signals of the federal reserve s information and that commercial forecasters modify their forecasts in response to those signals these findings may explain why long term interest rates typically rise in response to shifts to tighter monetary policy jel e52 e43 d82 asymmetric information between the federal reserve and the public is a phenomenon that is often posited but rarely tested numerous models of central bank behavior for example show that the existence of asymmetric information has important implications for the effectiveness of policy and the consequences of dynamic inconsistency yet there

design of an economically efficient feed in tariff structure for renewable energy development abstract evidence suggests albeit tentatively that feed in tariffs fits are more effective than alternative support schemes in promoting renewable energy technologies rets fits provide long term financial stability for investors in rets which at the prevailing market price of electricity are not currently cost efficient enough to compete with traditional fossil fuel technologies on the other hand if not properly designed fits can be economically inefficient as is widely regarded to have been the case under the public utility regulatory policies act of 1978 purpa under purpa too high a guaranteed price led to the creation of so called purpa machines poorly performing generating units that could survive financially only because of heavy subsidies that came at the expense of retail customers similarly because of their adverse impacts on retail electricity rates german fits have been subject to increasing political pressure from utilities and customers in this paper we propose an innovative two part fit consisting of both a capacity payment and a market based energy payment which can be used to meet the renewables policy goals of regulators our two part tariff design draws on the strengths of traditional fits relies on market mechanisms is easy to implement and avoids the problems caused by distorting wholesale energy markets through above market energy payments the approach is modeled on forward capacity market designs that have been recently implemented by several regional transmission organizations in the usa to address needs for new generating capacity to ensure system reliability

aggregate wealth in canada this paper describes a comprehensive measure of aggregate private sector wealth in canada that includes both human and nonhuman wealth wealth and its components are measured at a quarterly frequency from 1963 to 1994 human wealth is computed as the expected present value of aggregate labor income net of government expenditures using a finite state markov approximation to an estimated bivariate var for the real interest rate and net income growth nonhuman wealth is constructed by consolidating the assets and liabilities of the various sectors of the economy to the extent possible assets and liabilities are measured at market value

where has all the education gone cross national data show no association between increases in human capital attributable to the rising educational attainment of the labor force and the rate of growth of output per worker this implies that the association of educational capital growth with conventional measures of total factor production is large strongly statistically significant and negative these are on average results derived from imposing a constant coefficient however the development impact of education varied widely across countries and has fallen short of expectations for three possible reasons first the institutional governance environment could have been sufficiently perverse that the accumulation of educational capital lowered economic growth second marginal returns to education could have fallen rapidly as the supply of educated labor expanded while demand remained stagnant third educational quality could have been so low that years of schooling created no human capital the extent and mix of these three phenomena vary from country to country in explaining the actual economic impact of education or the lack thereof

a survey of the literature on human capital intensive firms the aim of this paper is to provide an exhaustive survey of the academic research dedicated to the study of human capital intensive firms hcifs we use a bibliometric analysis based on the three widely used databases econlit science direct and wiley over the period 1992 2015 we are adapting a methodology developed in previous works to our specific object of study and we generate a bottom up clustering on keywords titles and abstracts our examination of the data sheds a light on five main clusters of works that respectively focus on 1 critical human resource management 2 intellectual capital assessment 3 funding risk and innovation 4 high skilled employees supporting economic development and 5 internal and external valuable social networks in a critical appraisal of our results we stress that the bibliometric analysis remains silent on how the different clusters are linked with each other based on our own appreciation of the hcifs literature we propose a further step in the identification of a central question linking up these clusters a transversal review of the five clusters reveals that hcifs appear as a network of specialized agents whose complementary human resources are decisive for the value creation process

labor utilization and nonwage labor costs in a disequilibrium macro framework the literature on labor utilization and nonwage labor costs is extended to incorporate recent approaches to macroeconomic disequilibrium modeling based on the smoothing by aggregation principle this leads to a reformulation of the basic sneessens dreze type model by treating employment and working hours as separate inputs the inclusion of nonwage labor costs serves a double purpose first they represent a restriction in the profit maximizing process and second they serve as a proxy for the fixity of labor the results differ substantially from simulation studies that disregard the utilization of labor and the nonlinear structure of labor costs

biases in macroeconomic forecasts irrationality or asymmetric loss empirical studies using survey data on expectations have frequently observed that forecasts are biased and have concluded that agents are not rational we establish that existing rationality tests are not robust to even small deviations from symmetric loss and hence have little ability to tell whether the forecaster is irrational or the loss function is asymmetric we quantify the exact trade off between forecast inefficiency and asymmetric loss leading to identical outcomes of standard rationality tests and explore new and more general methods for testing forecast rationality jointly with flexible families of loss functions that embed quadratic loss as a special case an empirical application to survey data on forecasts of nominal output growth demonstrates the empirical significance of our results and finds that rejections of rationality may largely have been driven by the assumption of symmetric loss

measuring human capital and its effects on wage growth ever since mincer years of labour market experience were used to approximate individual s general human capital while years of seniority were used to approximate job specific human capital this specification is restrictive because it assumes that starting wages at a new job depend only on job market experience in this paper i investigate the effects of human capital on wage growth by using a more flexible specification of the wage equation which allows for a rich set of information on past employment spells to affect the starting wages in addition i endogenize the labour mobility decision in order to illuminate the effects of human capital accumulation patterns on wage growth i compare counterfactual career paths for representative individuals copyright 2010 blackwell publishing ltd

do wages rise with job seniority many previous studies have found a strong positive effect of job seniority tenure on wages this paper re examines the evidence using a simple instrumental variables scheme to deal with the fact that tenure is likely to be related to unobserved individual and job characteristics that affect the wage we use the variation of tenure over a given job match as the principal instrumental variable for tenure the variation in tenure over the job is uncorrelated by construction with the fixed individual and job match specific components of the error term of the wage equation our main finding is that the partial effect of tenure on wages is small and that general labour market experience and job shopping account for most wage growth over a career the strong cross section relationship between tenure and wages is due primarily to heterogeneity bias prior researchers see mincer and jovanovic 1981 bartel and borjas 1981 borjas 1981 cline 1979 and mellow 1981 and many others have established that job seniority has a strong positive relationship with wage rates in a cross section or a cross section time series of individuals in this paper we re evaluate the evidence concerning the partial effects on wages of job seniority tenure and total labour market experience the extent to which wages rise with tenure is important for several reasons first and foremost the wage tenure profile is a fundamental question about the structure of earnings over careers second the wage tenure profile is a key determinant of the extent to which the earnings power of individuals is tied to specific jobs and it is important for assessment of the losses suffered by displaced workers hamermesh 1984 third evidence that wages rise with job tenure has been used to explain the decline in quits with tenure since the wage growth on the current job lowers the probability that the worker will locate a superior alternative a growing theoretical literature surveyed in parsons 1984 has taken the evidence of a strong wage tenure profile at face value and sought to provide an explanation for the relationship the most prominent explanation is the theory of specific human capital oi 1962 becker 1962 mincer 1974 parsons 1972 kuratani 1973 and hashimoto 1980 in which the growth of wages with tenure holding experience constant is attributed to the worker s share of investments in firm specific skills more recently lazear 1981 has presented a supervision model of wage growth in which firms defer compensation as a means of inducing workers not to shirk freeman 1977 and harris and holmstrom 1982 provide an explanation for wage growth based on an insurance motive salop and salop 1976 nickell 1976 and guasch and weiss 1982 present adverse selection models of wage growth in which firms use a wage tenure profile as a

the dragon awakens innovation competition and transition in the energy strategy of the people s republic of china 1949 2017 abstract based on a mix of original archival research and an extensive literature review this article assesses the history of the people s republic of china s national energy policies since 1949 we divide this history into six phases emergence 1949 1957 socialist construction 1958 1965 turbulence 1966 1978 reform 1979 2000 contestation 2001 2014 and transition 2015 present over the whole history of more than sixty years china s energy production and consumption grew at a surprising speed while energy intensity exhibited early fluctuations and a subsequent gradual decrease after the turbulence phase in tracing this history the article offers new historical and policy insights into the world s largest developing country and a theoretical contribution to the role of the state in shaping economy and society through energy policy the article lastly offers an in depth exploration of how command and control style administrative intervention and low levels of market liquidity have had a prophylactic effect on innovation and competition

testing the rationality of price forecasts new evidence from panel data this paper tests the rationality of individual price forecasts in a panel of professional forecasters here unlike in most previous studies rationality is not rejected the results here differ because 1 using individual forecasts avoids aggregation bias 2 comparison of forecasts to initial data avoids bias due to data revision 3 the professional forecasters have economic incentives to state their expectations accurately and 4 a new covariance matrix estimator consistent when forecast errors are correlated across individuals is used copyright 1990 by american economic association

the design of renewable support schemes and co2 emissions in china abstract the renewable energy targets put forward by the chinese government need comprehensive incentive schemes this paper uses a multi regional cge model to evaluate two types of renewable support schemes a subsidy scheme like a feed in tariff fit with a direct price impact for final consumers and a subsidy scheme without any price impact we assess the co 2 consequences of both approaches as well as their impact on economic activity in terms of gdp industrial structure electricity generation structure and regional final demand elasticities of electricity we find that a support scheme with price impact is much more effective in reducing co 2 emissions while the difference in gdp between the two policies is small we estimate that the price implications of the support scheme allow for an additional emissions reduction of 113 mt co 2 or 0 07 of total emissions in china during 2020 2035 the support scheme with a price impact does not lead to a negative impact on the chinese economy although there are significant differences among regions in addition while the whole country faces an approximately unitary electricity elasticity demand we find significant differences in electricity demand elasticities among chinese regions

can carbon pricing support onshore wind power development in china an assessment based on a large sample project dataset abstract there is much discussion about whether the rapid expansion of onshore wind power in china is sustainable given the decrease in feed in tariffs fit it is unclear whether the recently launched nationwide carbon pricing system which will include 1700 power companies can compensate for decreasing fits and possibly provide new incentives for wind power developments this paper investigates the ability of carbon pricing policies to compensate for declining fits in support of onshore wind power investment in china first we constructed a dataset of 2059 onshore wind power projects from china s thirty provinces between 2006 and 2015 to estimate the levelized costs of electricity lcoe this dataset was used to assess the profitability of each wind project for different carbon prices varying levels of fits curtailment rate and discount rate our findings suggest that the carbon price can compensate partially for the revenue loss caused by declining fits as well as improving the profitability of projects however current carbon prices in china s carbon emission trading pilots are not sufficiently high to compensate for the revenue losses especially under the grid parity scenario consequently without fits the sustainable development of onshore wind power in china is uncertain a sensitivity analysis of the effect of the carbon pricing policy demonstrates that in the case of higher investment risk and more serious curtailment the effect of carbon pricing policy on promoting the wind power investment seems to be more significant

the solar photovoltaic feed in tariff scheme in new south wales australia solar photovoltaic pv electricity systems are part of australia s energy supply matrix in the case of new south wales nsw the state government has had to deal with a complex policy problem in order to play its role in the federal small scale renewable energy scheme the nsw government initiated the 7 year solar bonus scheme in 2010 however in attempting to maximise community investment in small scale solar pv systems it relied on faulty financial modelling that applied a generous feed in tariff fit and underestimated the level of investor participation and installed capacity consequently the scheme has resulted in very high public costs that will require policy changes that bring investors and energy retailers into conflict and unpopular electricity retail price adjustments this paper uses a structured case and stakeholder analysis to critically analyse the fit policy while also highlighting important lessons for policymakers engaging in fit design

human capital measurement theory and practice in early 2010 the us economy sits in its most precarious position since the great depression of the 1930s at its height in 1933 25 of all workers and 37 of all non farm workers were completely out of work the unemployment rate in the usa is now over 9 5 1 as figure 1 indicates when the us economy spirals into severe recession unemployment cascades up as well periods of recession coincide with significant rise in unemployment and the two forces feed on each other taxing economic systems when consumer spending declines and capital stock markets endure significant loss unemployment spirals upward earned income tax revenue declines government expenditure on benefits for the unemployed increase consumer spending declines further and sales tax revenue declines housing values decline in a recession which causes property tax revenue to decline which causes a shortfall in municipal tax revenue so city budgets do not balance so more unemployment occurs now in the public sector the us and the world economy in general are still in the throes of such cataclysmic events even while this is written in the summer of 2009 europe s economy continues in a similarly dire situation with overall unemployment at 9 5 for the european union as of may 2009 2 interestingly australia unemployment hovers in the 5 8 rate range 3 the crash of the us economy has reverberated throughout the world and adversely impacted virtually every other economic system on the globe this sad fact is well known and undisputed by economists and social scientists throughout the world the us congress sits as this is being written in the summer of 2009 and debates an almost 1 trillion dollar healthcare package to assist in part in bringing the us economy out of crisis on february 17th of 2009 us president obama signed into law an 800 billion plus stimulus package significant debate in the usa continues as to whether the immense government spending and attendant increase in debt has done any good britain germany and other world powers are undergoing similar investments and debates hundreds of millions of these dollars are earmarked for projects to increase employment and increase the human capital hc of the world labour force on programmes such as educational loans and subsidies

asymmetry complementarities and state dependence in federal reserve forecasts forecasts are a central component of policymaking the federal reserve s forecasts are published in a document called the greenbook previous studies of the greenbook s inflation forecasts have found them to be rationalizable but asymmetric if considering particular subperiods for example before and after the volcker appointment in these papers forecasts are analyzed in isolation assuming policymakers value them independently we analyze the greenbook forecasts in a framework in which the forecast errors for different variables are allowed to interact we find that allowing the losses to interact makes the unemployment forecasts virtually symmetric the output forecasts symmetric prior to the volcker appointment and the inflation forecasts symmetric after the onset of the great moderation

specifying human capital a review of the measures of the stock of human capital used in empiricalgrowth research including adult literacy rates school enrollmentratios and average years of schooling of the working age population reveals that human capital is mostly poorly proxied the simple use ofthe most common proxy average years of schooling misspecifies therelationship between education and the stock of human capital based onhuman capital theory the specification of human capital is extended toallow for decreasing returns to education and for differences in thequality of a year of education the different specifications give riseto hugely differing measures of the stock of human capital acrosscountries and development accounting results show that misspecifiedhuman capital measures can lead to severe underestimation of thedevelopment effect of human capital

organizational change skill formation human capital measurement evidence from italian manufacturing firms basing on a job competition approach in this paper we provide a labour demand oriented measure of human capital as defined by the amount of specific skills a firm generates through work based training wbt activities by merging three rich firm level datasets we estimate the impact of a set of variables that are supposed to affect both the propensity to invest in wbt and the intensity of training within the italian manufacturing industry over the period 2001 2005 the estimates show that the effects of innovation on wbt is higher when the introduction of new technologies is supported by organizational innovations when looking at the nature of wbt we investigate the different determinants of the firms propensity to provide both in house and outside training finally we estimate training intensity in terms respectively of the number of training activities provided private and total training costs and the share of trainees

detailed estimation of worklife expectancy for the measurement of human capital accounting for marriage and children abstract measuring an individual s human capital at a point in time as the present actuarial value of expected net lifetime earnings has a lengthy history calculating such measures requires accurate estimates of worklife expectancy here worklife estimates for men and women in the usa categorized by educational attainment race marital status parental status and current labour force status are presented race has a much larger impact on the worklife expectancy of men than women education is associated with larger worklife differentials for women the association between marriage and worklife expectancy is significant but of opposite sign for men and women married women men have a lower higher worklife expectancy than single women men parenthood is associated with a reduction in the worklife expectancy of women the association is smaller and varies from positive for some education marital status groups to negative for others for men

the rationality of usda forecasts under multivariate asymmetric loss a large number of previous studies suggest that many usda forecasts are biased and or inefficient these findings however may be the result of the assumed loss function of usda forecasters we test the rationality of the usda net cash income forecasts and the wasde production and price forecasts between 1988 and 2018 using a flexible multivariate loss function that allows for asymmetric loss and non separable forecast errors our results provide robust evidence that usda forecasters are rational expected loss minimizers yet demonstrate a tendency to place a greater weight on under or overprediction as a result this study provides an alternate interpretation of previous findings of forecast irrationality

equity and tradeoffs in a tax based incomes policy a tax based incomes policy tip is a tax incentive that tries to induce employers and or workers to reduce wage and or price increases it is intended as a complement to the basic anti inflation policy of gradual monetary deceleration and fiscal restraint its purpose is to reduce the capital stock and output loss that would otherwise accompany such a policy see my 1978 1979a articles this article is divided into two sections section i examines the capital stock and output loss under monetary deceleration that is uncomplemented by tip this loss is due primarily to wage growth inertia a central feature of modern capitalist economies such inertia provides not only the rationale for a tip on wage increases but also implies that special effort is required to assure that the design of a complete tip package is fair to labor section ii analyzes the tradeoffs confronting two alternative methods of making tip more equitable to labor profit and or price restraint insurance and a tip on price increases of the largest firms the original tip limited to wage increases at first glance is often perceived as unbalanced and inequitable this section tries to contribute to the development of a balanced equitable tip

cost and income based measures of human capital human capital is increasingly believed to play an important role in the growth process however adequately measuring its stock remains controversial in this paper three general approaches to measurement are identified cost based income based and educational stock based this survey focuses on the first two approaches and provides a critical review of the theories and their applications to data from a range of countries particular emphasis is placed upon the work of jorgenson and fraumeni 1989 1992 and some new results for new zealand based upon their approach are also presented

shocks and government beliefs the rise and fall of american inflation working paper 2004 22 september 2004 abstract the authors use a bayesian markov chain monte carlo algorithm to estimate a model that allows temporary gaps between a true expectational phillips curve and the monetary authority s approximating nonexpectational phillips curve a dynamic programming problem implies that the monetary authority s inflation target evolves as its estimated phillips curve moves the authors estimates attribute the rise and fall of post world war ii inflation in the united states to an intricate interaction between the monetary authority s beliefs and economic shocks shocks in the 1970s altered the monetary authority s estimates and made it misperceive the tradeoff between inflation and unemployment that misperception caused sharp rise in inflation in the 1970s the authors estimates indicate that policy makers updated their beliefs continuously by the 1980s policy makers beliefs about the phillips curve had changed enough to account for fed chairman paul volcker s conquest of u s inflation in the early 1980s jel classification e3 e5 key words updating beliefs policy evaluation self confirming equilibrium nash inflation ramsey outcomes i introduction today many statesmen and macroeconomists believe that inflation can largely be determined by a government monetary authority then why did the federal reserve board preside over high us inflation during the late 1960s and the 1970s and why under paul volcker did it rapidly bring inflation down during the early 1980s this paper answers these questions by estimating a model that features a particular process that makes a procession of economic shocks induce the monetary authority to alter its model of inflation unemployment dynamics the phillips curve at each date t the monetary authority updates its beliefs about the phillips curve and then recomputes a first period action recommended by a phelps problem a discounted dynamic programming problem that minimizes the expected value of a discounted quadratic loss function of inflation and unemployment 1 the monetary authority pursues the same objectives at each date using the same structural model with only its estimates of that model changing over time 2 this model of the systematic part of inflation puts the monetary authority s beliefs about the phillips curve front and center 3 we assume that the monetary authority s model of the phillips curve deviates in two subtle but important ways from what it would be in a rational expectations model e g kydland and prescott 1977 the first deviation is that while the true phillips curve is like kydland and prescott s we assume that the monetary authority omits the public s expected rate of inflation from its phillips curve by itself this omission need not prevent the outcomes of our model from coinciding with those of kydland and prescott s nor need it imply that the government s model is wrong in a way that could be detected from even an infinite sample whether the monetary authority s model is wrong in a statistically detectable way depends on how we allow the monetary authority to reestimate the parameters of its model in particular if the monetary authority were to believe that the coefficients of its phillips curve are constant over time then its estimates would converge to ones that support a self confirming equilibrium sce after convergence its estimated phillips curve would correctly describe occurrences along the sce path for inflation and unemployment such an after convergence version of our model has little hope of explaining the rise and fall of us inflation that model would have inflation fluctuating randomly around a constant sce level that coincides with kydland and prescott s time consistent suboptimal i e excessive level 4 this outcome motivates our second subtle deviation from a rational expectations equilibrium

estimation and testing of forecast rationality under flexible loss in situations where a sequence of forecasts is observed a common strategy is to examine rationality conditional on a given loss function we examine this from a different perspective supposing that we have a family of loss functions indexed by unknown shape parameters then given the forecasts can we back out the loss function parameters consistent with the forecasts being rational even when we do not observe the underlying forecasting model we establish identification of the parameters of a general class of loss functions that nest popular loss functions as special cases and provide estimation methods and asymptotic distributional results for these parameters this allows us to construct new tests of forecast rationality that allow for asymmetric loss the methods are applied in an empirical analysis of imf and oecd forecasts of budget deficits for the g7 countries we find that allowing for asymmetric loss can significantly change the outcome of empirical tests of forecast rationality