co2 emissions energy consumption and economic growth in china a panel data analysis this paper examines the causal relationships between carbon dioxide emissions energy consumption and real economic output using panel cointegration and panel vector error correction modeling techniques based on the panel data for 28 provinces in china over the period 1995 2007 our empirical results show that co2 emissions energy consumption and economic growth have appeared to be cointegrated moreover there exists bidirectional causality between co2 emissions and energy consumption and also between energy consumption and economic growth it has also been found that energy consumption and economic growth are the long run causes for co2 emissions and co2 emissions and economic growth are the long run causes for energy consumption the results indicate that china s co2 emissions will not decrease in a long period of time and reducing co2 emissions may handicap china s economic growth to some degree some policy implications of the empirical results have finally been proposed

energy consumption and economic growth relationship evidence from panel data for low and middle income countries abstract this paper uses the panel data of energy consumption ec and economic growth gdp for 51 countries from 1971 to 2005 these countries are divided into three groups low income group lower middle income group and upper middle income group countries firstly a relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is investigated by employing pedroni 1999 panel cointegration method secondly panel causality test is applied to investigate the way of causality between the energy consumption and economic growth finally we test whether there is a strong or weak relationship between these variables by using pedroni 2001 method the empirical results of this study are as follows i energy consumption and gdp are cointegrated for all three income group countries ii the panel causality test results reveal that there is long run granger causality running from gdp to ec for low income countries and there is bidirectional causality between ec and gdp for middle income countries iii the estimated cointegration factor is not close to 1 in other words no strong relation is found between energy consumption and economic growth for all income groups considered in this study the findings of this study have important policy implications and it shows that this issue still deserves further attention in future research

energy quality and energy surplus in the extraction of fossil fuels in the u s abstract the goal of net energy analysis is to assess the amount of useful energy delivered by an energy system net of the energy costs of delivery the standard technique of aggregating energy inputs and outputs by their thermal equivalents diminishes the ability of energy analysis to achieve that goal because different types of energy have different abilities to do work per heat equivalent this paper describes physical and economic methods of calculating energy quality and incorporates economic estimates of quality in the analysis of the energy return on investment eroi for the extraction of coal and petroleum resources in the u s from 1954 to 1987 eroi is the ratio of energy delivered to energy used in the delivery process the quality adjusted eroi is used to answer the following questions 1 are coal and petroleum resources becoming more scarce in the u s 2 is society s capability of doing useful economic work changing and 3 is society s allocation of energy between the extraction of coal and petroleum optimal the results indicate that petroleum and coal became more scarce in the 1970s although the degree of scarcity depends on the type of quality factor used the quality adjusted eroi shed light on the coal petroleum paradox when energy inputs and outputs are measured in thermal equivalents coal extraction has a much larger eroi than petroleum the adjustment for energy quality reduces substantially the difference between the two fuels the results also suggest that when corrections are made for energy quality society s allocation of energy between coal and petroleum extraction meets the efficiency criteria described by neoclassical and biophysical economists

witchcraft beliefs as a cultural legacy of the atlantic slave trade evidence from two continents abstract this paper argues that the historical slave trade contributed to the propagation of persistent witchcraft beliefs on both sides of the atlantic ocean and establishes two key empirical patterns first it shows that in sub saharan africa representatives of ethnic groups which were more heavily exposed to the atlantic slave trade in the past are more likely to believe in witchcraft today thus establishing a link between historical trauma and contemporary culture second exploring the role of the slave trade in cultural transmission across continents this paper finds that afro descendants in modern latin america are substantially more likely to believe in witchcraft relative to other ancestral groups moreover accounting for ancestry and other relevant factors people residing in regions historically more reliant on african slave labor are also more likely to be witchcraft believers these findings support ethnographic narratives on the connection between slave trade slavery and the entrenchment of witchcraft beliefs and shed light on the nature of these beliefs and related practices as a cultural framework for interpreting misfortune and a mechanism of enslavement in local communities

economic dispatch savings in the coal fired power sector an empirical study of china abstract the current equal share dispatch approach has often been criticized for its negative influence on the electricity system operation in china which worsens the energy security environmental sustainability and affordability problems to provide references for the on going electricity market reform this study employs an optimization model to quantify the economic dispatch savings in the coal fired power sector key findings are summarized as follows 1 the heat rates of 2803 coal generators in china range from 273 91 gce kwh to 348 38 gce kwh units in 2014 and the great differences among these generators at different geographical areas exhibit the necessity for economic dispatch 2 5 67 of the coal used for power generation could be saved from economic dispatch in a provincial level the monetary value of which can reduce the average electricity price by 0 0058 yuan kwh in 2014 3 three major political and economic challenges hinder the transition from the current dispatch mode to economic dispatch namely the insufficient running hours for cost recovery limited cross border trading due to electricity over supply and local protectionism and the political economy problems from generators of different ownership types

the causality relationship between energy consumption and gdp in g 11 countries revisited abstract this paper explores whether energy conservation policies can be implemented in countries with the same level of development that is is restraining energy consumption without compromising economic growth feasible in all industrialized countries a new granger non causality testing procedure developed by toda and yamamoto 1995 journal of econometrics 66 225 250 is applied to re investigate the relationship if any between energy consumption and income in 11 major industrialized countries the results clearly do not support the view that energy consumption and income are neutral with respect to each other except in the case of the united kingdom germany and sweden where a neutral relationship is found bi directional causality in the united states and uni directional running from energy consumption to gdp in canada belgium the netherlands and switzerland are found this indicates that energy conservation may hinder economic growth in the latter five countries further the causality relationship appears to be uni directional but reversed for france italy and japan which implies that in these three countries energy conservation may be viable without being detrimental to economic growth

an econometric study of co2 emissions energy consumption income and foreign trade in turkey abstract this study attempts to empirically examine the dynamic causal relationships between carbon emissions energy consumption income and foreign trade in the case of turkey using the time series data for the period 1960 2005 this research tests the interrelationship between the variables using the bounds testing to cointegration procedure the bounds test results indicate that there exist two forms of long run relationships between the variables in the case of first form of long run relationship carbon emissions are determined by energy consumption income and foreign trade in the case of second long run relationship income is determined by carbon emissions energy consumption and foreign trade an augmented form of granger causality analysis is conducted amongst the variables the long run relationship of co2 emissions energy consumption income and foreign trade equation is also checked for the parameter stability the empirical results suggest that income is the most significant variable in explaining the carbon emissions in turkey which is followed by energy consumption and foreign trade moreover there exists a stable carbon emissions function the results also provide important policy recommendations

the transmission of democracy from the village to the nation state we provide evidence that a history of democracy at the local level is associated with contemporary democracy at the national level auxiliary estimates show that a tradition of local democracy is also associated with attitudes that favor democracy with better quality institutions and higher level of economic development

scenario analysis on co2 emissions reduction potential in china s electricity sector abstract with the approach of the year 2012 a new round of international negotiations has energized the entire climate change community with this analyses on sector based emissions reduction and mitigation options will provide the necessary information to form the debate in order to assess the co2 emissions reduction potential of china s electricity sector this research employs three scenarios based on the long range energy alternative planning system leap model to simulate the different development paths in this sector the baseline scenario the current policy scenario and the new policy scenario seek to gradually increase the extent of industrial restructuring and technical advancement results imply that energy consumption and co2 emission in china s electricity sector will rise rapidly in all scenarios until 2030 triple or quadruple the 2000 level however through structural adjustment in china s electricity sector and through implementing technical mitigation measures various degrees of abatement can be achieved these reductions range from 85 to 350 million tons co2 per year figures that correspond to different degrees of cost and investment demand side management and circulating fluidized bed combustion cfbc ranked in order are employed prior to use to realize emissions reduction followed by supercritical plants and the renovation of conventional thermal power plants in the long term nuclear and hydropower will play the dominant role in contributing to emissions reduction it is also suggested that a self restraint reduction commitment should be employed to help contribute to the reduction of emission intensity an avenue that is more practical for china in light of its current development phase setting the year 2000 as the base year the intensity reduction target could possibly range from 4 2 to 19 4 dependent on the implementation effectiveness of various mitigation options

cointegration and causal relationships between energy consumption and output assessing the evidence from australia in this paper we describe our investigation of the cointegration and causal relationships between energy consumption and economic output in australia over a period of five decades the framework used in this paper is the single sector aggregate production function which is the first comprehensive approach used in an australian study of this type to include energy capital and labour as separate inputs of production the empirical evidence points to a cointegration relationship between energy and output and implies that energy is an important variable in the cointegration space as are conventional inputs capital and labour we also find some evidence of bidirectional causality between gdp and energy use although the evidence of causality from energy use to gdp was relatively weak when using the thermal aggregate of energy use once energy consumption was adjusted for energy quality we found strong evidence of granger causality from energy use to gdp in australia over the investigated period the results are robust irrespective of the assumptions of linear trends in the cointegration models and are applicable for different econometric approaches

energy consumption prices and economic growth in three ssa countries a comparative study in this paper we examine the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in three sub saharan african countries namely south africa kenya and congo drc we incorporate prices as an intermittent variable in a bivariate setting between energy consumption and economic growth thereby creating a simple trivariate framework using the ardl bounds testing procedure we find that the causality between energy consumption and economic growth varies significantly across the countries under study the results show that for south africa and kenya there is a unidirectional causal flow from energy consumption to economic growth however for congo drc it is economic growth that drives energy consumption these findings have important policy implications insofar as energy conservation policies are concerned in the case of congo drc for example the implementation of energy conservation policies may not significantly affect economic growth because the country s economy is not entirely energy dependent however for south africa and kenya there is a need for more energy supply augmentations in order to cope with the long run energy demand in the short run however the two countries should explore more efficient and cost effective sources of energy in order to address the energy dependency problem

the slave trade and the origins of mistrust in africa in a recent study nunn 2008 examines the long term impacts of africa s slave trade he finds that the slave trade which occurred over a period of more than 400 years had a significant negative effect on long term economic development although the article arguably identifies a negative causal relationship between the slave trade and income today the analysis is unable to establish the exact causal mechanisms underlying this reduced form relationship in this article we examine one of the channels through which the slave trade may affect economic development today combining contemporary individual level survey data with historical data on slave shipments by ethnic group we ask whether the slave trade caused a culture of mistrust to develop within africa initially slaves were captured primarily through state organized raids and warfare but as the trade progressed the environment of ubiquitous insecurity caused individuals to turn on others including friends and family members and to kidnap trick and sell each other into slavery sigismund wilhelm koelle 1854 p e h hair 1965 charles piot 1996 we hypothesize that in this environment a culture of mistrust may have evolved which may persist to this day we show that current differences in trust levels within africa can be traced back to the transatlantic and indian ocean slave trades combining contemporary individual level survey data with historical data on slave shipments by ethnic group we find that individuals whose ancestors were heavily raided during the slave trade are less trusting today evidence from a variety of identification strategies suggests that the relationship is causal examining causal mechanisms we show that most of the impact of the slave trade is through factors that are internal to the individual such as cultural norms beliefs and values jel j15 n57 z13

energy consumption and economic growth parametric and non parametric causality testing for the case of greece abstract the objective of this paper is to contribute towards the understanding of the linear and non linear causal linkages between energy consumption and economic activity making use of annual time series data of greece for the period 1960 2008 two are the salient features of our study first the total energy consumption has been adjusted for qualitative differences among its constituent components through the thermodynamics of energy conversion in doing so we rule out the possibility of a misleading inference with respect to causality due to aggregation bias second the investigation of the causal linkage between economic growth and the adjusted for quality total energy consumption is conducted within a non linear context our empirical results reveal significant unidirectional both linear and non linear causal linkages running from total useful energy to economic growth these findings may provide valuable information for the contemplation of more effective energy policies with respect to both the consumption of energy and environmental protection

energy consumption and economic growth in china a multivariate causality test this study takes a fresh look at the direction of causality between energy consumption and economic growth in china during the period from 1972 to 2006 using a multivariate cointegration approach given the weakness associated with the bivariate causality framework the current study performs a multivariate causality framework by incorporating capital and labor variables into the model between energy consumption and economic growth based on neo classical aggregate production theory using the recently developed autoregressive distributed lag ardl bounds testing approach a long run equilibrium cointegration relationship has been found to exist between economic growth and the explanatory variables energy consumption capital and employment empirical results reveal that the long run parameter of energy consumption on economic growth in china is approximately 0 15 through a long run static solution of the estimated ardl model and that for the short run is approximately 0 12 by the error correction model the study also indicates the existence of short run and long run causality running from energy consumption capital and employment to economic growth the estimation results imply that energy serves as an important source of economic growth thus more vigorous energy use and economic development strategies should be adopted for china

aggregation and the role of energy in the economy methods for investigating the role of energy in the economy involve aggregating different energy flows a variety of methods have been proposed but none has received universal acceptance this paper shows that the method of aggregation has crucial effects on the results of the analysis we review the principal assumptions and methods for aggregating energy flows the basic heat equivalents approach economic approaches using prices or marginal product for aggregation emergy analysis and thermodynamic approaches such as exergy we argue that economic approaches such as the index or marginal product method are superior because they account for differences in quality among fuels we apply various economic approaches in three case studies in the us economy in the first we account for energy quality to assess changes in the energy surplus delivered by the extraction of fossil fuels from 1954 to 1992 the second and third case studies examine the importance of energy quality in evaluating the relation between energy use and gdp first a quality adjusted index of energy consumption is used in an econometric analysis of the causal relation between energy use and gdp from 1947 to 1996 second we account for energy quality in an econometric analysis of the factors that determine changes in the energy gdp ratio from 1947 to 1996 without adjusting for energy quality the results imply that the energy surplus from petroleum extraction is increasing that changes in gdp drive changes in energy use and that gdp has been decoupled from between aggregate energy use all of these conclusions are reversed when we account for changes in energy quality 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

clean production pathways for regional power generation system under emission constraints a case study of shanghai china china is now facing pressures of emission reduction both from greenhouse gases ghgs and local air pollutants laps considering power generation system contributes a great share of co2 and pm2 5 emissions a regional power generation system modelling and optimization framework using long range energy alternatives planning system leap is conducted in order to explore the cost effective cleaner capacity expansion pathways under various emissions constraints a case study of shanghai follows focusing on analysis of capacity additions for different power generation technologies as well as energy inputs reduction co benefits and system costs the results indicate that i the clean production pathways differentiate along with stricter co2 constraints ii ultra supercritical coal fired units have significant advantage under no emission constraint which are substitute by cleaner power generation units such as wind power solar power and integrated gasification combined cycle igcc under the co2 constrained scenario and the combined co2 pm2 5 constrained scenario iii co2 constraint displays stronger reduction co benefits than that of pm2 5 iv emission constraints are conductive to energy savings that will increase system cost finally policy recommendations are made through sensitivity analysis that only when the price of natural gas declines sharply can natural gas units become one of the alternatives that reduce coal consumption and the related co2 emissions

energy gdp relationship revisited an example from gcc countries using panel causality abstract this work investigates the causality relationship between gross domestic product gdp and energy consumption in the six countries of the gulf cooperation council gcc recently developed panel cointegration and causality techniques are used to uncover the direction of energy gdp causality in the gcc empirical results indicate a unidirectional causality running from gdp to energy consumption evidence shows no support for the hypothesis that energy consumption is the source of gdp growth in the gcc countries such results suggest that energy conservation policies may be adopted without much concern about their adverse effects on the growth of gcc economies

the economic origins of the evil eye belief the evil eye belief is a widespread superstition according to which people can cause harm by a mere envious glance at coveted objects or their owners this paper argues that such belief originated and persisted as a useful heuristic under conditions in which envy was likely to trigger destructive behavior and the avoidance of other people s envy effectively prescribed by the evil eye belief was a proper response to that threat we hypothesize that in weakly institutionalized societies wealth differentiation and vulnerability of productive assets were the key factors enabling envy induced destructive behavior and contributing to the emergence and spread of the evil eye belief as a cultural defense mechanism evidence from small scale preindustrial societies shows that there is indeed a robust positive association between the incidence of the belief and measures of wealth inequality controlling for potential confounding factors such as patterns of spatial and cross cultural diffusion and various dimensions of early economic development furthermore the evil eye belief is more prevalent in agro pastoral societies that tend to sustain higher levels of inequality and where vulnerable material wealth plays a dominant role in the subsistence economy

exploring the relationship between energy use and economic growth with bivariate models new evidence from g 7 countries abstract there is a rapidly growing literature on the interaction between energy use and economic development with many analysts drawing policy conclusions on the basis of granger causality tests that involve only an energy and an economic variable this paper attempts to demonstrate empirically that such studies although useful for certain applications may be of limited use for policy purposes after outlining theoretical and methodological issues associated with such approaches i apply bivariate energy economy causality tests for canada france germany italy japan the united kingdom and the united states using aggregate and sectoral data and three different modern econometric methods the results which are often contradictory or economically implausible illustrate explicitly that one should be cautious when drawing policy implications with the aid of bivariate causality tests on small samples i therefore underline the importance of utilizing as large sample sizes as possible and using multivariate models which are closer to economic theory accommodate several mechanisms and causality channels and provide a better representation of real world interactions between energy use and economic growth

energy and economic growth in the usa a multivariate approach abstract this paper examines the causal relationship between gdp and energy use for the period 1947 90 in the usa the relationship between energy use and economic growth has been examined by both biophysical and neoclassical economists in particular several studies have tested for the presence of a causal relationship in the granger sense between energy use and economic growth however these tests do not allow a direct test of the relative explanatory powers of the neoclassical and biophysical models a multivariate adaptation of the test vector autoregression var does allow such a test a var of gdp energy use capital stock and employment is estimated and granger tests for causal relationships between the variables are carried out although there is no evidence that gross energy use granger causes gdp a measure of final energy use adjusted for changing fuel composition does granger cause gdp

energy consumption and economic growth a causality analysis for greece abstract this paper investigates the causal relationship between aggregated and disaggregated levels of energy consumption and economic growth for greece for the period 1960 2006 through the application of a later development in the methodology of time series proposed by toda and yamamoto 1995 at aggregated levels of energy consumption empirical findings suggest the presence of a uni directional causal relationship running from total energy consumption to real gdp at disaggregated levels empirical evidence suggests that there is a bi directional causal relationship between industrial and residential energy consumption to real gdp but this is not the case for the transport energy consumption with causal relationship being identified in neither direction the importance of these findings lies on their policy implications and their adoption on structural policies affecting energy consumption in greece suggesting that in order to address energy import dependence and environmental concerns without hindering economic growth emphasis should be put on the demand side and energy efficiency improvements

an arrgh chy the law and economics of pirate organization this article investigates the internal governance institutions of violent criminal enterprise by examining the law economics and organization of pirates to effectively organize their banditry pirates required mechanisms to prevent internal predation minimize crew conflict and maximize piratical profit pirates devised two institutions for this purpose first i analyze the system of piratical checks and balances crews used to constrain captain predation second i examine how pirates used democratic constitutions to minimize conflict and create piratical law and order pirate governance created sufficient order and cooperation to make pirates one of the most sophisticated and successful criminal organizations in history

energy consumption and economic growth evidence from the commonwealth of independent states abstract this study examines the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for eleven countries of the commonwealth of independent states over the period 1991 2005 within a multivariate panel data framework based on pedroni 1999 pedroni 2004 heterogeneous panel cointegration test and corresponding error correction model cointegration is present between real gdp energy consumption real gross fixed capital formation and labor force with the respective coefficients positive and statistically significant the results of the error correction model reveal the presence of unidirectional causality from energy consumption to economic growth in the short run while bidirectional causality between energy consumption and economic growth in the long run thus the results lend support for the feedback hypothesis associated with the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth

self confirming equilibrium and the lucas critique we examine the role of off path superstitions in macro economics and show how a false belief about off path play is the key element underlying both the lucas critique and the game theoretic concept of self confirming equilibrium however the impact of false beliefs in these two cases is different in the lucas case a policy maker s incorrect beliefs about off path play can lead to the adoption of mistaken policy innovation however the consequences of such an innovation provide evidence that the belief that motivated them was wrong in contrast play may never escape an undesirable self confirming equilibrium as the action implied by the mistaken belief does not generate data that contradicts it escape from the self confirming equilibrium requires that players do a sufficient amount of experimentation with off path actions

on the origins of gender roles women and the plough the study examines the historical origins of existing cross cultural differences in beliefs and values regarding the appropriate role of women in society we test the hypothesis that traditional agricultural practices influenced the historical gender division of labor and the evolution of gender norms we find that consistent with existing hypotheses the descendants of societies that traditionally practiced plough agriculture today have less equal gender norms measured using reported gender role attitudes and female participation in the workplace politics and entrepreneurial activities our results hold looking across countries across districts within countries and across ethnicities within districts to test for the importance of cultural persistence we examine the children of immigrants living in europe and the united states we find that even among these individuals all born and raised in the same country those with a heritage of traditional plough use exhibit less equal beliefs about gender roles today jel codes d03 j16 n30 copyright 2013 oxford university press

energy consumption and economic growth nexus in portugal italy greece spain and turkey an ardl bounds test approach 1965 2009 abstract the paper examines the nexus between primary energy consumption and growth in portugal italy greece spain and turkey pigst with annual time series data from 1965 to 2009 pigst are southern european economies which have experienced several episodes that make them of particular interest to the study of periods of economic expansion and stagnation an ardl bounds test approach is a suitable technique to examine energy growth nexus within the context of countries with both sporadic shocks outliers and permanent shocks structural breaks empirical results suggest bidirectional causality between energy and growth in both the long run and short run supporting the feedback hypothesis the results reveal themselves to be robust to panel framework an energy conservation policy will reduce gdp growth while a saving phenomenon is observed since one additional unit of product requires less than one unit of energy

a multivariate cointegration analysis of the role of energy in the us macroeconomy abstract this paper extends my previous analysis of the causal relationship of gdp and energy use in the usa in the post war period a majority of the relevant variables are integrated justifying a cointegration analysis the results show that cointegration does occur and that energy input cannot be excluded from the cointegration space the results are plausible in terms of macroeconomic dynamics the results are similar to my previous granger causality results and contradict claims in the literature based on bivariate models that there is no cointegration between energy and output

linear and nonlinear causality between sectoral electricity consumption and economic growth evidence from taiwan this study investigates the linear and nonlinear causality between the total electricity consumption tec and real gross domestic production rgdp unlike previous literature we solve the undetermined relation between rgdp and electricity consumption by classifying tec into industrial sector consumption isc and residential sector consumption rsc as well as investigating how tec isc and rsc influence taiwan s rgdp by using the granger s linear causality test it is shown that i there is a bidirectional causality among tec isc and rgdp but a neutrality between rsc and rgdp with regard to the linear causality and ii there is still a bidirectional causality between tec and rgdp but a unidirectional causality between rsc and rgdp with regard to the nonlinear causality on the basis of i and ii we suggest that the electricity policy formulators loosen the restriction on isc and limit rsc in order to achieve the goal of economic growth

energy consumption and gdp in tunisia cointegration and causality analysis abstract in this paper the johansen cointegration technique is used to examine the causal relationship between per capita energy consumption pcec and per capita gross domestic product pcgdp for tunisia during the 1971 2004 period in order to test for granger causality in the presence of cointegration among the variables a vector error correction model vecm is used instead of a vector autoregressive var model our estimation results indicate that the pcgdp and pcec for tunisia are related by one cointegrating vector and that there is a long run bi directional causal relationship between the two series and a short run unidirectional causality from energy to gross domestic product gdp the source of causation in the long run is found to be the error correction terms in both directions hence an important policy implication resulting from this analysis is that energy can be considered as a limiting factor to gdp growth in tunisia conclusions for tunisia may also be relevant for a number of countries that have to go through a similar development path of increasing pressure on already scarce energy resources

energy consumption and economic growth the case of oil exporting countries this paper examines the causal relationship between the per capita energy consumption and the per capita gdp in a panel of 11 selected oil exporting countries by using panel unit root tests and panel cointegration analysis the results show a unidirectional strong causality from economic growth to energy consumption for the oil exporting countries the findings have practical policy implications for decision makers in the area of macroeconomic planning in most major oil exporting countries government policies keep domestic prices bellow free market level resulting in high levels of domestic energy consumption the results imply that the energy conservation through reforming energy price policies has no damaging repercussions on economic growth for this group of countries

energy consumption and economic growth assessing the evidence from greece abstract this paper attempts to shed light into the empirical relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for greece 1960 1996 employing the vector error correction model estimation the vector specification includes energy consumption real gdp and price developments the latter taken to represent a measure of economic efficiency the empirical evidence suggests that there is a long run relationship between the three variables supporting the endogeneity of energy consumption and real output these findings have important policy implications since the adoption of suitable structural policies aiming at improving economic efficiency can induce energy conservation without impeding economic growth

a new statistic and practical guidelines for nonparametric granger causality testing abstract in this paper we introduce a new nonparametric test for granger non causality which avoids the over rejection observed in the frequently used test proposed by hiemstra and jones 1994 testing for linear and nonlinear granger causality in the stock price volume relation journal of finance 49 1639 1664 after illustrating the problem by showing that rejection probabilities under the null hypothesis may tend to one as the sample size increases we study the reason behind this phenomenon analytically it turns out that the hiemstra jones test for the null of granger non causality which can be rephrased in terms of conditional independence of two vectors x and z given a third vector y is sensitive to variations in the conditional distributions of x and z that may be present under the null to overcome this problem we replace the global test statistic by an average of local conditional dependence measures by letting the bandwidth tend to zero at appropriate rates the variations in the conditional distributions are accounted for automatically based on asymptotic theory we formulate practical guidelines for choosing the bandwidth depending on the sample size we conclude with an application to historical returns and trading volumes of the standard and poor s index which indicates that the evidence for volume granger causing returns is weaker than suggested by the hiemstra jones test

panel estimation for co2 emissions energy consumption economic growth trade openness and urbanization of newly industrialized countries abstract this paper empirically examines the dynamic causal relationships between carbon dioxide emissions energy consumption economic growth trade openness and urbanization for the panel of newly industrialized countries nic using the time series data for the period 1971 2007 using four different panel unit root tests it is found that all panel variables are integrated of order 1 from the johansen fisher panel cointegration test it is found that there is a cointegration vector among the variables the granger causality test results support that there is no evidence of long run causal relationship but there is unidirectional short run causal relationship from economic growth and trade openness to carbon dioxide emissions from economic growth to energy consumption from trade openness to economic growth from urbanization to economic growth and from trade openness to urbanization it is found that the long run elasticity of carbon dioxide emissions with respect to energy consumption 1 2189 is higher than short run elasticity of 0 5984 this indicates that over time higher energy consumption in the newly industrialized countries gives rise to more carbon dioxide emissions as a result our environment will be polluted more but in respect of economic growth trade openness and urbanization the environmental quality is found to be normal good in the long run

the causality between energy consumption and economic growth in turkey abstract this paper applies the causality test to examine the causal relationship between primary energy consumption ec and real gross national product gnp for turkey during 1970 2006 we employ unit root tests the augmented dickey fuller adf and the philips perron pp johansen cointegration test and pair wise granger causality test to examine relation between ec and gnp our empirical results indicate that the two series are found to be non stationary however first differences of these series lead to stationarity further the results indicate that ec and gnp are cointegrated and there is bidirectional causality running from ec to gnp and vice versa this means that an increase in ec directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further ec this bidirectional causality relationship between ec and gnp determined for turkey at 1970 2006 period is in accordance with the ones in literature reported for similar countries consequently we conclude that energy is a limiting factor to economic growth in turkey and hence shocks to energy supply will have a negative impact on economic growth

causality between energy consumption and economic growth in india a note on conflicting results abstract this note examines the different direction of causal relation between energy consumption and economic growth in india applying engle granger cointegration approach combined with the standard granger causality test on indian data for the period 1950 1996 we find that bi directional causality exists between energy consumption and economic growth further we apply johansen multivariate cointegration technique on the different set of variables the same direction of causality exists between energy consumption and economic growth this is different from the results obtained in earlier studies

testing for linear and nonlinear granger causality in the stock price volume relation linear and nonlinear granger causality tests are used to examine the dynamic relation between daily dow jones stock returns and percentage changes in new york stock exchange trading volume we find evidence of significant bidirectional nonlinear causality between returns and volume we also examine whether the nonlinear causality from volume to returns can be explained by volume serving as a proxy for information flow in the stochastic process generating stock return variance as suggested by clark s 1973 latent common factor model after controlling for volatility persistence in returns we continue to find evidence of nonlinear causality from volume to returns

interpreting the dynamic nexus between energy consumption and economic growth empirical evidence from russia research on the nexus between energy consumption and economic growth is a fundamental topic for energy policy making and low carbon economic development russia proves the third largest energy consumption country in the world in recent years while little research has shed light upon its energy consumption issue till now especially its energy growth nexus therefore this paper empirically investigates the dynamic nexus of the two variables in russia based on the state space model the results indicate that first of all russia s energy consumption is cointegrated with its economic growth in a time varying way though they do not have static or average cointegration relationship hence it is unsuitable to merely portrait the nexus in an average manner second ever since the year of 2000 russia s energy efficiency has achieved much more promotion compared with that in previous decades mainly due to the industrial structure adjustment and technology progress third among bric countries the consistency of russia s energy consumption and economic growth appears the worst which suggests the complexity of energy growth nexus in russia finally there exists bi directional causality between russia s energy consumption and economic growth though their quantitative proportional relation does not have solid foundation according to the cointegration theory

energy consumption and gdp revisited a panel analysis of developed and developing countries this paper applies a new panel data stationarity testing procedure first developed by carrion i silvestre et al 2005 econometrics journal 8 159 175 with panel vars that employ the generalized method of moment techniques in order to re investigate the dynamic interactions between energy consumption per capita lec and real gdp per capita lry in 22 developed and 18 developing countries when multiple breaks in the series are taken into account there is convincing evidence of panel stationarity for lec and lry in both groups the energy crises evidently had a substantive impact on both lec and lry in all sample countries furthermore our panel vars attest to bidirectional causality between lec and lry in developed countries but there is uni directional causality from lry to lec in developing countries finally from the orthogonalized impulse response functions all of the variables in the panel vars have a positive effect on each other but their impact is greater and more persistent in developing countries some important policy implications do emerge

economic growth and energy consumption revisited evidence from linear and nonlinear granger causality the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is considered as an imperative issue in energy economics previous studies have ignored the nonlinear behavior which could be caused by structural breaks in this study both linear and nonlinear granger causality tests are applied to examine the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for a sample of asian newly industrialized countries as well as the u s this study finds evidence supporting a neutrality hypothesis for the united states thailand and south korea however empirical evidence on philippines and singapore reveals a unidirectional causality running from economic growth to energy consumption while energy consumption may have affected economic growth for taiwan hong kong malaysia and indonesia policy implications are also discussed

dynamics and stagnation in the malthusian epoch this paper examines the central hypothesis of the influential malthusian theory according to which improvements in the technological environment during the pre industrial era had generated only temporary gains in income per capita eventually leading to a larger but not significantly richer population exploiting exogenous sources of cross country variations in land productivity and the level of technological advancement the analysis demonstrates that in accordance with the theory technological superiority and higher land productivity had significant positive effects on population density but insignificant effects on the standard of living during the time period 1 1500 ce

energy consumption and economic growth in new zealand results of trivariate and multivariate models abstract this study examines the energy consumption growth nexus in new zealand causal linkages between energy and macroeconomic variables are investigated using trivariate demand side and multivariate production models long run and short run relationships are estimated for the period 1960 2004 the estimated results of demand model reveal a long run relationship between energy consumption real gdp and energy prices the short run results indicate that real gdp granger causes energy consumption without feedback consistent with the proposition that energy demand is a derived demand energy prices are found to be significant for energy consumption outcomes production model results indicate a long run relationship between real gdp energy consumption and employment the granger causality is found from real gdp to energy consumption providing additional evidence to support the neoclassical proposition that energy consumption in new zealand is fundamentally driven by economic activities inclusion of capital in the multivariate production model shows short run causality from capital to energy consumption also changes in real gdp and employment have significant predictive power for changes in real capital

structural breaks energy consumption and economic growth revisited evidence from taiwan abstract this paper studies the stability between energy consumption and gdp for taiwan during 1954 2003 we use aggregate as well as various disaggregate data of energy consumption including coal oil gas and electricity to employ the unit root tests and the cointegration tests allowing for structural breaks our main findings are first though gas consumption seems to have structural breaks in the 1960s after considering the structural breaks the series is a stationary variable when taiwan adopted its expansionary export trade policy second we find that different directions of causality exist between gdp and various kinds of energy consumption the empirical result shows unanimously in the long run that energy acts as an engine of economic growth and that energy conservation may harm economic growth third the cointegration between energy consumption and gdp is unstable and some economic events may affect the stability overall we do find the structural breakpoints and they look to match clearly with the corresponding critical economic incidents

energy consumption carbon emissions and economic growth in china abstract this paper investigates the existence and direction of granger causality between economic growth energy consumption and carbon emissions in china applying a multivariate model of economic growth energy use carbon emissions capital and urban population empirical results for china over the period 1960 2007 suggest a unidirectional granger causality running from gdp to energy consumption and a unidirectional granger causality running from energy consumption to carbon emissions in the long run evidence shows that neither carbon emissions nor energy consumption leads economic growth therefore the government of china can purse conservative energy policy and carbon emissions reduction policy in the long run without impeding economic growth

energy income causality in oecd countries revisited the key role of capital stock abstract this paper applies a recent advance in panel analysis to estimate the panel cointegration and panel vector error correction models for a set of 22 oecd countries using annual data covering the period 1960 2001 we investigate the relationship between energy consumption and income using an aggregate production function and controlling for the capital stock as well as by exploring the dynamic directions of the causality among these three variables we firstly obtain solid and convincing evidence of a fairly strong long run equilibrium relationship among them secondly it is found that the capital stock is much more productive than energy consumption third it is observed that neglecting the impact of the capital stock on income tends to overestimate the effect of energy consumption finally the panel causality test shows bi directional causal linkages exist among energy consumption the capital stock and economic growth overall the findings reveal that the capital stock plays a critical role in realizing the dynamic relationship between energy and income

the relationship between energy consumption energy prices and economic growth time series evidence from asian developing countries this paper estimates the causal relationships between energy consumption and income for india indonesia the philippines and thailand using cointegration and error correction modelling techniques the results indicate that in the short run unidirectional granger causality runs from energy to income for india and indonesia while bidirectional granger causality runs from energy to income for thailand and the philippines in the case of thailand and the philippines energy income and prices are mutually causal the study results do not support the view that energy and income are neutral with respect to each other with the exception of indonesia and india where neutrality is observed in the short run c 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved jel classifications c22 q43 q48

retesting the causality between energy consumption and gdp in china evidence from sectoral and regional analyses using dynamic panel data abstract the increasing attention on energy policy needs has provided a renewed stimulus to research the linkages between energy consumption and economic performance in china this paper examined the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in the regional and sectoral aspects by adopting provincial panel data in china from 1995 to 2008 the results indicate that economic growth causes more energy consumption in china not only at the national level but also at the regional and sectoral levels then the eastern region and the industrial sector show results quite similar to that of the whole country in which a bidirectional causality relationship exists between energy consumption and economic growth the implication for energy policies in china is that the eastern region and the industrial sector should play a leading role in the adjustment of energy consumption patterns and the transformation of the economy structure energy prices have limited effects on energy consumption but do have effects on economic growth because the energy price mechanism is more government oriented than market oriented in china

energy consumption economic growth and carbon emissions challenges faced by an eu candidate member abstract this paper investigates the long run granger causality relationship between economic growth carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption in turkey controlling for gross fixed capital formation and labor the most interesting result is that carbon emissions seem to granger cause energy consumption but the reverse is not true the lack of a long run causal link between income and emissions may be implying that to reduce carbon emissions turkey does not have to forgo economic growth

energy use and output growth in canada a multivariate cointegration analysis using a neo classical one sector aggregate production technology where capital labor and energy are treated as separate inputs this paper develops a vector error correction vec model to test for the existence and direction of causality between output growth and energy use in canada using the johansen cointegration technique the empirical findings indicate that the long run movements of output labor capital and energy use in canada are related by two cointegrating vectors then using a vec specification the short run dynamics of the variables indicate that granger causality is running in both directions between output growth and energy use hence an important policy implication of the analysis is that energy can be considered as a limiting factor to output growth in canada

a literature survey on energy growth nexus abstract this paper provides a survey of the recent progress in the literature of energy consumption economic growth and electricity consumption economic growth causality nexus the survey highlights that most empirical studies focus on either testing the role of energy electricity in stimulating economic growth or examining the direction of causality between these two variables although the positive role of energy on growth has become a stylized fact there are some methodological reservations about the results from these empirical studies a general observation from these studies is that the literature produced conflicting results and there is no consensus neither on the existence nor on the direction of causality between energy consumption electricity consumption and economic growth as a policy implication to avoid from conflicting and unreliable results the authors may use the autoregressive distributed lags bounds test two regime threshold co integration models panel data approach and multivariate models including new variables such as real gross fixed capital formation labor force carbon dioxide emissions population exchange rates interest rates etc thus the authors should focus more on the new approaches and perspectives rather than by employing usual methods based on a set of common variables for different countries and different intervals of time

energy consumption and economic growth in central america evidence from a panel cointegration and error correction model abstract this study examines the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for six central american countries over the period 1980 2004 within a multivariate framework given the relatively short span of the time series data a panel cointegration and error correction model is employed to infer the causal relationship based on the heterogeneous panel cointegration test by pedroni pedroni p 1999 critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors oxford bulletin of economics and statistics 61 653 670 pedroni p 2004 panel cointegration asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the ppp hypothesis new results econometric theory 20 597 627 cointegration is present between real gdp energy consumption the labor force and real gross fixed capital formation with the respective coefficients positive and statistically significant the granger causality results indicate the presence of both short run and long run causality from energy consumption to economic growth which supports the growth hypothesis