spousal bargaining over care for elderly parents in china imbalances in sex ratios influence the allocation of support abstractusing a unique chinese survey of parents and adult children this paper examines how married children negotiate with their spouses for time devoted to caring for their own parents applying a collective bargaining framework i show that the sex ratio at marriage shifts household bargaining in favour of the husband s parents when women are less scarce or against his parents when women are scarcer such changing dynamics in the family may potentially reverse the current preference for sons in china implying that those with sons rather than daughters may be increasingly in need of state support

analysts weighting of private and public information using both a linear regression method and a probability based method we find that on average analysts place larger than efficient weights on i e they overweight their private information when they forecast corporate earnings we also find that analysts overweight more when issuing forecasts more favorable than the consensus and overweight less and may even underweight private information when issuing forecasts less favorable than the consensus further the deviation from efficient weighting increases when the benefits from doing so are high or when the costs of doing so are low these results suggest that analysts incentives play a larger role in misweighting than their behavioral biases copyright 2006 oxford university press

marriage market divorce legislation and household labor supply this paper provides a theoretical framework for analyzing the impact of the marriage market and divorce legislation on household labor supply in our approach the sex ratio in the marriage market and the rules governing divorce are examples of distribution factors these factors are defined as variables that affect the household members bargaining position but not preferences or the joint budget set we extend the collective labor supply model developed by chiappori to allow for distribution factors we show that our model imposes new restrictions on the labor supply functions and eases the identification of individual preferences and the intrahousehold decision process the model is estimated using psid data for the year 1988 our results do not reject the restrictions imposed by the model also the sex ratio and divorce laws deemed favorable to women are found to affect labor supply behavior and the decision process in the directions predicted by the theory and to have sizable effects

building the family nest premarital investments marriage markets and spousal allocations we develop a model of the household in which spousal incomes are determined by premarital investments the marriage market is characterized by assortative matching and endogenously determined sharing rules form the basis of intra household allocations by incorporating pre marital investments and spousal matching into the collective household model we are able to identify the fundamental determinants of endogenously determined and maritally sustainable intra marital sharing rules in particular we find that all sharing rules along the assortative order support unconditionally efficient outcomes where both pre marital investments and intra household allocations are efficient the efficiency of both pre marital choices and household allocations then enables us to show that for each couple the marriage market generates a unique and maritally sustainable sharing rule that is a function of the distribution of pre marital endowments and the sex ratios in the market

analyst forecasts and herding behavior the use of analyst forecasts as proxies for investors earnings expectations is commonplace in empirical research an implicit assumption behind their use is that they reflect analysts private information in an unbiased manner as demonstrated here this assumption is not necessarily valid there is shown to be a tendency for analysts to release forecasts closer to prior earnings expectations than is appropriate given their information further analysts exhibit herding behavior whereby they release forecasts similar to those previously announced by other analysts even when this is not justified by their information these results are shown to have interesting empirical implications article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

child labor and the labor supply of other household members evidence from 1920 america this paper analyses the effect of child labor on household labor supply using 1920 us census micro data the aim of the analysis is to understand who in the household benefits from child labor in order to identify a source of exogenous variation in child labor i use state specific child labor laws i find that a rise in the proportion of working children by household is associated with no variation in parents labor supply i also find a strong negative externality among children as the proportion of working children by household rises everything else equal the probability that each child works falls while the probability that he attends school rises this suggests that parents redistribute entirely the returns from child labor to the children in the household consistent with a model of household labor supply with fully altruistic parents

does past success lead analysts to become overconfident this paper provides evidence that analysts who have predicted earnings more accurately than the median analyst in the previous four quarters tend to be simultaneously less accurate and further from the consensus forecast in their subsequent earnings prediction this phenomenon is economically and statistically meaningful the results are robust to different estimation techniques and different control variables our findings are consistent with an attribution bias that leads analysts who have experienced a short lived success to become overconfident in their ability to forecast future earnings

causes and effects of vertical intergration this paper sets out to define new measures of industry average forward and backward integration and incorporate them into an empirical stucture conduct performance model results suggest that integration is encouraged where there are relatively few firms in an industry and if sales are increasing forward integration occurs in reaction to large outgoing distribution margins backward integration acts to increase concentration at least in some parts of the manufacturing sector integratin has a complex and interactive effect on profitability serving sometimes to raise profitability and sometimes to lower it

the productivity paradox evidence from indirect indicators of service sector productivity growth whereas difficulties in measuring the output of service sectors have been well documented input measures are reasonably accurate using u s input output data for the period 1958 87 and a number of indices of skill and occupational change derived from the dictionary of occupational titles and decennial census data covering the period 1960 1990 i find strong evidenec that among all industries in the economy industry productivity growth is positively related to r d intensity and knowledge spillovers from other industries but negatively related to major restructuring of technology this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the cost of empowerment multiple sources of women s debt in rural india abstractpoor women borrow from multiple sources this study examines whether the source of debt matters for women s role in household financial decisions drawing on a household survey from rural tamil nadu we categorise women s loans along the lines of accessibility and formality into planned loans and instant loans we find that instant loans support women s bargaining power in various types of household financial decisions whereas planned loans have no impact this surprising result is better understood when the nature of instant loans is examined these are frequently usurious involve coercive enforcement methods and are considered socially debasing hence women who use them perform a convenient role for their households and in return gain some negotiating power

bargaining and distribution in marriage the standard economic model of the family is a common preference model that assumes that a family maximizes a single utility function and implies that family behavior is independent of which individuals receive income or control resources in recent years this model has been challenged by game theoretic models of marriage that do not impose pooling and are therefore consistent with empirical evidence that income controlled by husbands and wives does have different effects on family behavior in this paper the authors review a number of simple bargaining models and relevant empirical evidence and discuss their implications for distribution within marriage

recovering individual preferences for non market goods a collective travel cost model traditional recreation demand models do not make a distinction between a household and an individual as the reference decision making unit thus assuming that a family maximizes a single utility function even if the family consists of different individuals such models ignore the possibility of family members divergent preferences for non market goods this study proposes a novel approach the collective travel cost model ctcm to eliciting individual preferences for a non market good such as a recreation site by using revealed preference data this approach accounts for the intra household resource allocation and the role of each household member s preferences we show that the collective travel cost model can be applied to estimating a recreation demand model that yields individual welfare estimates appropriate for policy analysis of non market goods such as the willingness to pay to access a recreation site we find that how resources are distributed within the household reflects significant differences in welfare measures

estimating consumption economies of scale adult equivalence scales and household bargaining power how much income would a woman living alone require to attain the same standard of living that she would have if she were married what percentage of a married couple s expenditures are controlled by the husband how much money does a couple save on consumption goods by living together versus living apart we propose and estimate a collective model of household behaviour that permits identification and estimation of concepts such as these we model households in terms of the utility functions of its members a bargaining or social welfare function and a consumption technology function we demonstrate generic non parametric identification of the model and hence of a version of adult equivalence scales that we call indifference scales as well as consumption economies of scale the household s resource sharing rule or members bargaining power and other related concepts copyright 2013 oxford university press

the impact of remanufacturing in the economy very few durable goods are recovered at the end of their useful lives however this situation could reverse with the development of a stronger remanufacturing industry in the economy this paper evaluates the impact of remanufacturing in a hypothetical situation where remanufacturing holds a significant share of the economy presently dominated by the original manufacturing industries it would have direct impacts on the demand for several inputs we adapt the inter industry input output framework with the development of a methodology to consider these changes subsequently we apply the model to the 30 sector aggregation of the french input output national data to illustrate the nethod and to evaluate the impact that remanufacturing may have on the economy the analysis assumes that remanufacturing sectors substitute labor and transport services for the usual inputs such as raw materials and semi finished goods we find that remanufacturing may satisfy the same final demand from all sectors requiring fewer intermediate resources with proportionally higher demand of labor

education choices in mexico using a structural model and a randomized experiment to evaluate progresa in this paper we evaluate the effect of a large welfare program in rural mexico for such a purpose we use an evaluation sample that includes a number of villages where the program was not implemented for evaluation purposes we estimate a structural model of education choices and argue that without such a framework it is impossible to evaluate the effect of the program and especially possible changes to its structure we also argue that the randomized component of the data allows us to identify a more flexible model that is better suited to evaluate the program we find that the program has a positive effect on the enrollment of children especially after primary school we also find that an approximately revenue neutral change in the program that would increase the grant for secondary school children while eliminating for the primary school children would have a substantially larger effect on enrollment of the latter while having minor effects on the former

do husbands and wives pool their resources evidence from the united kingdom child benefit common preference models of family behavior imply income pooling a restriction on family demand functions such that only the sum of husband s income and wife s income affects the allocation of goods and time testing the pooling hypothesis is difficult because most family income sources are not exogenous to the allocations being analyzed in this paper we present an alternative test based on a natural experiment a policy change in the united kingdom that transferred a substantial child allowance to wives in the late 1970s using family expenditure survey data we find strong evidence that a shift toward greater expenditures on women s clothing and children s clothing relative to men s clothing coincided with this income redistribution

gender and say a model of household behaviour with endogenously determined balance of power the evidence that the same total income can lead a household to choose different consumption vectors depending on who brings in how much of the income has led to an effort to replace the standard unitary model of the household with the collective model which recognizes that the husband and the wife may have different preferences and depending on the balance of power between them the household may choose differently one weakness of this new literature is that it fails to recognize that the household s choice could in turn influence the balance of power once this two way relation between choice and power is recognized we are forced to confront some new questions concerning how to model the household this paper tries to answer these by defining a household equilibrium examining its game theoretic properties and drawing out its testable implications it is shown for instance that once we allow for dynamic interaction a household can exhibit inefficient behavior and that for a certain class of parameters children will be less likely to work in a household where power is evenly balanced than one in which all power is concentrated in the hands of either the father or the mother the paper also draws out the implications for female labor supply

the dynamics of overconfidence evidence from stock market forecasters as a group market forecasters are overconfident in the sense that they are miscalibrated while overconfidence is persistent respondents do exhibit some degree of rational learning in that they widen confidence intervals after failure as much as they narrow them after success market experience exacerbates overconfidence primarily through knowledge deterioration

extended families and child well being studies of household behavior have established the distribution of resources among household members predicts spending and savings patterns however there is a paucity of evidence on the relationship between the well being of individual family members and the distribution of resources within an extended family including non co resident family members given the central role the family plays in many models of economic behavior this is an important gap in the literature using rich longitudinal survey data from the indonesia family life survey ifls evidence is presented on the relationship between three measures of health and education related human capital of children and the distribution of resources among extended family members ifls is ideally suited for this research since the survey collects detailed information about income and wealth from both coresident and non co resident family members the empirical model is founded on a natural extension of the collective model of household decision making chiappori 1988 1992 to the extended family the model is particularly appealing in this context because it places few restrictions on preferences of individual family members and does not specify a specific bargaining mechanism that underlies negotiations the collective model yields empirical tests of whether the behavior of family members is pareto efficient a special case of the model allows all family members to be completely altruistic which is observationally equivalent to a unitary model of family behavior that special case is rejected by the data however the restrictions of the efficient model are not rejected indicating that non co resident family members are able to co ordinate allocation decisions with respect to child human capital investments in such a way as to make no family member better off without another member being worse off

household income as a determinant of child labor and school enrollment in brazil evidence from a social security reform abstractthis article studies the effects of household income on labor participation and school enrollment of children aged 10 14 in brazil using a social security reform as a source of exogenous variation in household income i find that increased benefits are associated with increases in school enrollment for girls as well as a smaller reduction in their labor participation but i find no effects for boys i also uncover evidence that the gender of the benefit receiver matters for girls labor variables only benefits received by females reduce girls work

financial analyst characteristics and herding behavior in forecasting this study classifies analysts earnings forecasts as herding or bold and finds that 1 boldness likelihood increases with the analyst s prior accuracy brokerage size and experience and declines with the number of industries the analyst follows consistent with theory linking boldness with career concerns and ability 2 bold forecasts are more accurate than herding forecasts and 3 herding forecast revisions are more strongly associated with analysts earnings forecast errors actual earnings forecast than are bold forecast revisions thus bold forecasts incorporate analysts private information more completely and provide more relevant information to investors than herding forecasts

why are professional forecasters biased agency versus behavioral explanations professional forecasters may not simply aim to minimize expected squared forecast errors in models with repeated forecasts the pattern of forecasts reveals valuable information about the forecasters even before the outcome is realized rational forecasters will compromise between minimizing errors and mimicking prediction patterns typical of able forecasters simple models based on this argument imply that forecasts are biased in the direction of forecasts typical of able forecasters our models of strategic bias are rejected empirically as forecasts are biased in directions typical of forecasters with large mean squared forecast errors this observation is consistent with behavioral explanations of forecast bias

the determinants of bargaining power in an empirical model of transfers between adult children parents and in laws for south korea abstract we derive a bargaining model of transfers between adult children and their parents and then estimate the model using data from south korea our analysis extends the literature on family bargaining by i arguing that transfers from the couple represent semiprivate consumption e g it is plausible that the wife cares more about her parents than about the husband s parents and vice versa and ii using results from laboratory experiments to help identify the model we find that women have slightly more bargaining power than men in the couple s decision making we also find that when an adult child receives an extra dollar of income she transfers half of it to her parents this result is consistent with previous work finally we reject the null hypothesis that bargaining power within the family depends only on the potential wage of each spouse

do analysts herd an analysis of recommendations and market reactions this article develops and implements a new test to investigate whether sell side analysts herd around the consensus when they make stock recommendations our empirical results support the herding hypothesis stock price reactions following recommendation revisions are stronger when the new recommendation is away from the consensus than when it is closer to it indicating that the market recognizes analysts tendency to herd we find that analysts from larger brokerages analysts following stocks with smaller dispersion across recommendations and analysts who make less frequent revisions are more likely to herd the author 2009 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oxfordjournals org oxford university press

how serious is the neglect of intrahousehold inequality in this report the authors develop a framework for assessing the consequences of ignoring intrahousehold inequality in the measurement and analysis of poverty and inequality they apply this framework to data for the philippines and conclude that 1 the result of neglecting intrahousehold inequality will probably be considerable understatement of the levels of poverty and inequality with the philippine data measured levels of inequality and poverty were off 30 percent as a result of ignoring intrahousehold variation and 2 patterns of inequality revealed by household level data are somewhat different from patterns revealed by individual level data but the differences seem not to be dramatic to confirm these results the exercise should be repeated with data from other countries

predicting individual analyst earnings forecasts in this study i propose and test a model that predicts individual analyst forecasts of corporate earnings per share eps using the change in the mean consensus forecast of other analysts since the date of the analyst s current outstanding forecast the deviation of the analyst s current forecast from the consensus forecast and cumulative stock returns since the date of the analyst s current forecast i find that these three variables explain about 38 of the variability in analyst forecast revisions while there is evidence of a relation between changes in earnings expectations and price changes virtually all of the explanatory power of my model arises from other analyst forecasts section 2 describes the data bases used and the sample selection process section 3 presents the model and method for predicting individual analyst forecasts section 4 reports the bias and accuracy of the predicted forecasts conclusions are in section 5

village banking and maternal and child health evidence from ecuador and honduras abstract many microcredit institutions bundle credit with health education or other programs this paper reviews arguments on such tie ins and concludes that net benefits are possible but requires empirical testing quasi experimental data from project hope s health banks and credit only village banks are then examined the paper presents evidence that health practices do not improve automatically with greater wealth in honduras results show that health bank participation is robustly associated with reduced subsequent conditional child diarrhea probability but in no specification does credit only bank participation have this effect in ecuador results suggest a larger effect of credit only banks in both countries health bank participation significantly raises subsequent healthcare over credit only participation and at least reduces the tendency to switch from breast feeding to bottle feeding as income rises effects on expenditures are ambiguous there is no clear link between tie ins and bank performance

household intertemporal behaviour a collective characterization and a test of commitment in this paper a formal test of intra household commitment is derived and performed to that end two models of household intertemporal behaviour are developed in both models household members are characterized by individual preferences in the first formulation household decisions are always on the ex ante pareto frontier in the second model the assumption of intra household commitment required by ex ante efficiency is relaxed it is shown that the full efficiency household euler equations are nested in the no commitment euler equations using this result the hypothesis that household members can commit to future allocations of resources is tested using the consumer expenditure survey i strongly reject this hypothesis it is also shown that the standard unitary framework is a special case of the full efficiency model however if household members are not able to commit household intertemporal behaviour cannot be characterized using the standard life cycle model these findings have two main implications first policy makers can change household behaviour by modifying the decision power of individual household members second to evaluate programmes designed to improve the welfare of household members it would be beneficial to replace the standard unitary model with a characterization of household behaviour that allows for lack of commitment

determinants of food consumption in rural sierra leone abstract this paper reports the application of a quadratic expenditure system with demographic variables to the household consumption leisure choice component of a household firm model a system of seven commodities is estimated including five foods non food and leisure appropriate for such a level of disaggregation a demand system is used the quadratic expenditure system which allows for a flexible relationship between full income and commodity expenditures without sacrificing parsimony in parameters demographic data on households are explicitly incorporated into the model allowing for a richer specification than can be achieved by using per capita variables the data are from a cross section survey of households in rural sierra leone price variation exists by region permitting estimation of a complete demand system engel curves are found to be significantly non linear with marginal expenditure on rice the major staple declining with higher income most foods are found to be reasonably price responsive with sizeable own price substitution effects declining with higher income aggregate labor supply is found to be price inelastic

motives for private transfers over the life cycle an analytical framework and evidence for peru abstract this paper tests for the motives for private income transfers we consider two motives altruism and exchange the question of private transfer motives is important because such motivation can influence the effects of public income transfers on the distribution of income using a household survey for peru we find that transfer amounts received increase with recipient pre transfer income which contradicts a key prediction of the strong form of the altruism hypothesis but is consistent with exchange we also find that capital market imperfections are likely to be an important cause of private transfers and that social security benefits crowd out the incidence of private transfers

collective labor supply and welfare the paper develops a general collective model of household labor supply in which agents are characterized by their own possibly altruistic preferences and household decisions are only assumed to be pareto efficient an alternative interpretation is that there are two stages in the internal decision process agents first share nonlabor income according to some given sharing rule then each one optimally chooses his or her own labor supply and consumption this setting is shown to generate testable restrictions on labor supplies moreover the observation of labor supply behavior is sufficient for recovering individual preferences and the sharing rule up to a constant finally the traditional tools of welfare analysis can be adapted to the new setting

gender agricultural production and the theory of the household virtually all models of the household assume that the allocation of resources is pareto efficient within many african households agricultural production occurs on many plots controlled by different members of the household pareto efficiency implies that factors should be allocated efficiently across these plots i find in contrast that plots controlled by women are farmed much less intensively than similar plots within the household controlled by men the estimates imply that about 6 percent of output is lost because of inefficient factor allocation within the household the paper suggests a new approach to modeling intrahousehold allocation consistent with the empirical results

efficient intra household allocations a general characterization and empirical tests the neoclassical theory of demand applies to individuals yet in empirical work it is usually taken as valid for households with many members this paper explores what the theory of individuals implies for households that have more than one member we make minimal assumptions about how the individual members of the household resolve conflicts all we assume is that however decisions are made outcomes are efficient we refer to this as the collective setting we show that in the collective setting household demands must satisfy a symmetry and rank condition on the slutsky matrix we also present some further results on the effects on demands of variables that do not modify preferences but that do affect how decisions are made we apply our theory to a series of surveys of household expenditures from canada the tests of the usual symmetry conditions are rejected for two person households but not for one person households we also show that income pooling is rejected for two person households we then test for our collective setting conditions on the couples data none of the collective setting restrictions are rejected we conclude that the collective setting is a plausible and tractable next step to take in the analysis of household behavior

an alternative treatment of secondary products in input output analysis the united nations system of national accounts includes an input or use table u uij of commodities i consumed by industries j and an output or make table v vj of industries producing commodities this paper is on the construction of an input output or requirements table a aij of commodities i for commodities the established constructs are criticised the current favourite the industry technology model is rejected on the ground that the choice of base year prices affects the results in more than a scaling fashion the paper presents an alternative to the existing constructs which cancels out the shortcomings and amounts to a rich representation of technology the united nations 1967 system of national accounts includes an input or use table u u1j of commodities i consumed by industries j and an output or make table v vij of industries i producing commoditiesj this paper is on the construction of an input output or requirements table a aij of commodities i for commodities j industry tables and mixed tables are not considered section i reviews the established constructs section ii evaluates them special attention is given to the so called industry technology model which is now used by the united states 1980 section iii derives a new construction of a requirements table section iv applies the analysis for convenience we have chosen the well organized tables of canada 1981 for our experiment section v discusses the results section vi concludes the paper 1 the established constructs the established constructs are the commodity technology model the by product technology model the industry technology model and the mixed technology model of gigantes 1970 some notation facilitates the presentation of these models e denotes the unit colunm vector denotes transposition denotes diagonalization either by suppression of the off diagonal elements of a square matrix or by placement of the elements of a vector denotes off diagonalization by suppression of the diagonal elements of a square matrix thus for a square matrix a a a the commodity technology model c rests on the assumption that each commodity has its own input structure industries are independent combinations of outputs j with their input structures ac i 1 n thus industry j needs for the production of vik units of output k an amount a v1k of input i summing over outputs k yields industry j s total demand for input i uij ekaikvjk hence u acv thus the commodity technology requirements table is given by ac uv note that existence may be guaranteed only if the number of commodities equals the number of industries the by product technology model b rests on the by product assumption that each industry produces outputs in a fixed proportion all secondary products are by products and therefore can be treated as negative inputs yielding net input structures a b i 1 n for the primary outputsj thus industry j needs for the production of vjj units of its primary output a net amount ui1 vjj a bvjj of commodity i hence u abv thus the by product technology requirements table is given byab u v v 1 note that again existence may be guaranteed only if the number of commodities equals the number of industries the industry technology model i rests on two assumptions one is the industry technology assumption that each industry j has the same input requirements for any unit of output here output is measured in value the other assumption is that of fixed commodity market shares of industries thus industry k needs uik livkl of input i per unit of output in particular for commodity j and its market share vkj livij is fixed taking the market share weighted average over industries k yields the amount of input i required for received for publication september 17 1981 revision accepted for publication april 6 1983 new york university and erasmus university jadavpur university and new york university respectively the application of the analysis was suggested by wassily leontief to the authors when they were at the institute for economic analysis new york a first version of the paper was presented at the seventeenth general conference of the international association for research in income and wealth held at chateau de montvillarg re gouvieux france august 16 22 1981 the authors are grateful to kishori lal jean h p paelinck ashok parikh and an anonymous referee for valuable comments to henk gravesteijn and jimmy younkins for computational assistance and to the sloan foundation for financial support

preference heterogeneity power and intrahousehold decision making in rural malaysia abstract this paper examines conjugal household responsibilities roles preference heterogeneity and intrahousehold power relations in rural malay families its three major contributions are to provide an effective initial indicator of separate spheres within the family develop and implement a method for measuring the extent of conjugal preference heterogeneity and illustrate the value of combining this direct measure of preference heterogeneity with a measure of power in estimating household expenditure patterns for three major items food schooling and housing improvement these three measurement innovations applied to the rural malaysia context demonstrate the potential for more direct efforts to model and measure intrahousehold decisions

parental wealth and adult children s welfare in marriage abstract many studies find that parental resources importantly determine children s human capital schooling returns and earnings the collective household approach suggests that in addition parental resources of marital partners may importantly affect resource distributions within marriage this paper presents empirical results consistent with this framework they suggest that parental wealth continues to play roles in augmenting welfare of children into adulthood beyond provision of human capital in early life cycle stages or direct financial aid during adulthood and that actual transfers from parents to adult children do not fully measure influences of parental wealth on behaviors and welfare of adult children

do sell side stock analysts exhibit escalation of commitment this paper presents evidence that when an analyst makes an out of consensus forecast of a company s quarterly earnings that turns out to be incorrect she escalates her commitment to maintaining an out of consensus view on the company relative to an analyst who was close to the consensus the out of consensus analyst adjusts her forecasts for the current fiscal year s earnings less in the direction of the quarterly earnings surprise on average this type of updating behavior reduces forecasting accuracy so it does not seem to reflect superior private information further empirical results suggest that analysts do not have financial incentives to stand by extreme stock calls in the face of contradictory evidence managerial and financial market implications are discussed

career concerns of mutual fund managers we examine the labor market for mutual fund managers using data from 1992 1994 we find that termination is more performance sensitive for younger managers we identify possible implicit incentives created by the termination performance relationship the shape of the termination performance relationship may give younger managers an incentive to avoid unsystematic risk direct effects of portfolio composition may also give younger managers an incentive to herd into popular sectors consistent with these incentives we find that younger managers hold less unsystematic risk and have more conventional portfolios promotion incentives and market responses to managerial turnover are also studied

intra household resource allocation an inferential approach if household income is pooled and then allocated to maximize welfare then income under the control of mothers and fathers should have the same impact on demand with survey data on family health and nutrition in brazil the equality of parental income effects is rejected unearned income in the hands of a mother has a bigger effect on her family s health than income under the control of a father for child survival probabilities the effect is almost twenty times bigger the common preference or neoclassical model of the household is rejected if unearned income is measured with error and income is pooled then the ratio of maternal to paternal income effects should be the same equality of the ratios cannot be rejected there is also evidence for gender preference mothers prefer to devote resources to improving the nutritional status of their daughters fathers to sons

intra family distribution of paid work time this article analyses the intra family distribution of paid work time in five european countries france germany italy spain and the uk to that end we formulate a collective model which allows us to characterize the efficient labour supply decisions of each spouse this two equation model is then simultaneously estimated by using national panel data drawn from the european community household panel echp 1994 2001 empirical results clearly show that in all sample countries the labour supply of wives is affected by own wages household and own nonlabour incomes and the number of children whereas evidence for husbands differs across countries

the empirical content of nash bargained household behavior in households whose allocation decisions can be represented as nash bargained household decisions extrahousehold environmental parameters eeps serve as pure shifters of the threat points the comparative statics of changes in demands due to changes in these eeps are given these are incorporated into a comprehensive statement of the empirical content of nash bargained household behavior including a nash generalization of barten s 1966 fundamental matrix equation of the theory of consumer demand estimation and data requirements are discussed along with nested testing of the following structure the neoclassical model is nested in the nash bargained model which in turn is nested in an unrestricted model of household demands emphasized throughout is the enriched menu of explanatory variables for demand analysis provided by the nash model as well as the model s ability to jointly analyze i household formation and ii intrahousehold allocation decisions

collective labour supply with children we extend the collective model of household behavior to allow for the existence of public consumption we show how this model allows the analysis of welfare consequences of policies aimed at changing the distribution of power within the household our setting provides a conceptual framework for addressing issues linked to the targeting of specific benefits or taxes we also show that the observation of the labor supplies and the household demand for the public good allow one to identify individual welfare and the decision process this requires either a separability assumption or the presence of a distribution factor

herding among security analysts the paper shows that the buy or sell recommendations of security analysts have a signi cant positive in uence on the recommendations of the next two analysts this in uence can be traced to short lived information in the most recent revisions in contrast the in uence of the prevailing consensus is not stronger if the consensus accurately forecasts subsequent stock price movements this indicates consensus herding consistent with models in which analysts herd based on little information the consensus also has a stronger in uence when market conditions are favorable the resulting poorer information aggregation could cause bull markets to be intrinsically more fragilea e g bikhchandani et al j political economy 100 5 1992 992 1026 2000 elsevier science s a all rights reserved jel classixcation g11 g14 g24

the impact of conditional cash transfers on consumption and investment in nicaragua abstract this article examines the impact of a nicaraguan conditional cash transfer programme on measures of expenditures and productive investment despite clear evidence from a randomised evaluation that the programme increased current expenditures there is little evidence that it increased agricultural or non agricultural investment an estimated marginal propensity to consume out of the transfers of nearly one combined with no effect of cumulative past transfers on current consumption corroborate the direct evidence on investment in contrast to gains made in human capital investment the potential for long term increases in consumption as a result of other forms of increased investment may be limited

security analysts career concerns and herding of earnings forecasts several theories of reputation and herding see e g scharfstein and stein 1990 suggest that herding among agents should vary with career concerns our goal in this paper is to document whether such a link exists in the labor market for security analysts specifically we look at the relationship between an analyst s job tenure a proxy for career concerns and various measures of stock earnings forecast performance we establish the following key results 1 older analysts are more likely to produce earnings forecasts of firms before younger ones 2 their forecasts also deviate more from the consensus forecast than their younger counterparts we argue that these results are consistent with some reputational models of herding we also establish a number of auxiliary findings regarding the relationship between forecast accuracy and frequency of forecast revisions with job tenure

inefficiency in analysts earnings forecasts systematic misreaction or systematic optimism a rational analysis of analyst behavior predicts that analysts immediately and without bias incorporate information into their forecasts several studies document analysts tendency to systematically underreact to information underreaction is inconsistent with rationality other studies indicate that analysts systematically overreact to new information or that they are systematically optimistic this study discriminates between these three hypotheses by examining the interaction between the nature of information and the type of reaction by analysts the evidence indicates that analysts underreact to negative information but overreact to positive information these results are consistent with systematic optimism in response to information the literature on financial analysts defines the phrase forecast inefficiency to mean forecasts that fail to accurately incorporate new information on a timely basis and or that are biased these forecasts have also been described as irrational or suboptimal prior studies report inefficiency in analysts forecasts finding that they are upwardly biased and inaccurately reflect available information some studies conclude from this that analysts underreact to information other studies conclude that analysts overreact if markets treat analysts forecasts as both rational and statistically optimal then inefficient forecasts could have important implications for the efficiency of pricing in securities markets in this paper we reexamine the apparent tendency of analysts to misinterpret earnings information the intent of this study is to discriminate between three hypotheses 1 that analysts systematically underreact to new earnings information 2 that analysts systematically overreact to new earnings information and 3 that analysts are systematically optimistic in their reactions for hypotheses 1 and 2 the direction of the misinterpretation i e underor overreaction is independent of the nature of the information received in contrast hypothesis 3 predicts that analysts are optimistic in interpreting

income and outcomes a structural model of intrahousehold allocation there is evidence from several sources that one cannot treat many person households as a single decision maker if this is the case then factors such as the relative incomes of the household members may affect the final allocation decisions made by the household we develop a method of identifying how incomes affect outcomes given conventional family expenditure data the basic assumption we make is that household decision processes lead to efficient outcomes we apply our method to a sample of canadian couples with no children we find that the final allocations of expenditures on each partner depend significantly on their relative incomes and ages and on the level of lifetime wealth

marriage the sharing rule and pocket money the case of south korea abstract using longitudinal data on private consumption from south korea this article examines the marital balance of power between spouses in a dynamic setting by allowing for unobserved heterogeneity at the household level and spouses time constant unobserved bargaining power i find that unobserved power plays a significant role in intrahousehold resource allocation the income pooling hypothesis is no longer rejected after accounting for unobserved power relative spousal earnings may be a good proxy for the long term balance of power to an extent that cross sectional variation in relative earnings across households reflects the pattern of spousal matching however within marriage changes in relative earnings do not induce any significant resource transfer between spouses the balance of bargaining power is stable within marriage

do two earner households base their choice of residential location on both incomes this article focuses on the role of individual incomes in the residential location decisions of two earner households conventional studies often treat households as a black box and describe them by a single utility function the article raises the question is the household utility paradigm an adequate framework for understanding the location decisions of two earner households it tests an implication of the household utility paradigm the income pooling hypothesis for location decisions the results provide evidence for rejecting the hypothesis among childless families but fail to provide evidence for rejecting it when children are present the results raise the need to address intrahousehold dynamics in modelling location decisions