business cycle analysis with a markov switching model this article explores the hamilton markov switching model through an analysis of the business cycles of eight developed market economies forecasting and specification tests suggest only marginal improvements over linear autoregressive models yet filtered and smoothed conditional probabilities indicate turning points in business cycles that closely correlate with turning points from traditional methods tests regarding the asymmetry of business cycles reject the null of symmetry for most countries

finance and growth in a bank based economy is it quantity or quality that matters abstract most finance growth studies approximate the size of financial systems rather than the quality of intermediation to explain economic growth differentials furthermore the neglect of systematic differences in cross country studies could drive the result that finance matters we suggest a measure of bank s intermediation quality using bank specific efficiency estimates and focus on the regions of one economy only germany this quality measure has a significantly positive effect on growth this result is robust to the exclusion of banks operating in multiple regions controlling for the proximity of financial markets when distinguishing different banking sectors active in germany and when excluding the structurally weaker east from the sample

sovereign default risk and the u s equity market i develop a two country general equilibrium model with firms governments and endogenous default decisions this paper shows that the risk of sovereign default abroad is important in the explanation of the level and the volatility of u s equity returns the intuition is that negative economic shocks deteriorate the fiscal situation of foreign governments thereby increasing the risk of a sovereign default that would trigger a local contraction in economic growth the rise in the risk of an economic slowdown abroad amplifies the direct eect of these shocks on the level and the volatility of equity returns in the u s through i a decrease in the present value of future firm earnings due to the unfavorable adjustment of the real exchange rate for u s exporters and ii a fall in u s equity prices that originates from the investors incentive to rebalance their portfolio towards risk free securities the amplification eect is strongest during periods of financial distress when the risk of corporate default is high in the u s a structural estimation of the model provides strong support for this prediction using monthly data for brazil and the u s over the period 1994 2008

detecting shift contagion in currency and bond markets abstract this paper investigates why financial market crises often increase the interdependence between assets associated with different countries two sources of increased co movement in asset returns are considered i larger common shocks operating through standard cross country linkages and ii changes in the structural transmission of shocks across countries referred to as shift contagion to examine this issue we develop a method for detecting shift contagion with three notable features first parameters corresponding to the structural transmission of shocks across countries are identified in the presence of changing volatility regimes for the shocks second the timing of changes in volatility is endogenously estimated instead of being exogenously assigned third the countries in which crises originate need not be known or even included in the analysis we apply the method to currency returns for developed countries and bond returns for emerging market countries

causality in variance and the type of traders in crude oil futures abstract this article examines the causal relationship and in particular informational dependence between crude oil futures return and the trading volume using daily data over a ten year period using a recent econometric methodology the two step procedure developed by cheung and ng 1996 cheung y w ng l k 1996 a causality in variance test and its applications to financial market prices journal of econometrics 72 33 48 is robust to distributional assumption and does not depend on simultaneous modeling of the two variables we find only causality at higher order lags running from return to volume in the mean as well as in conditional variance our result is not in complete agreement with several earlier studies in this area however the result does indicate mild support for noise traders hypothesis in the crude oil futures market

when where and how to estimate persistent and transient efficiency in stochastic frontier panel data models abstract in this paper we examine robustness of a recently developed panel data stochastic frontier model that allows for both persistent and transient also known as long run and short run or time invariant and time varying inefficiency along with random firm effects heterogeneity and noise we address some concerns that the practitioners might have about this model first given that there are two random time invariant components persistent inefficiency and firm effects the concern is whether the model can accurately identify them and if so how precisely can the model estimate them second there are two time varying random components transient inefficiency and noise and the concern is whether the model can separate noise from transient inefficiency and if so how precisely can the model estimate transient inefficiency third how well are persistent and transient inefficiency estimated under different scenarios viz under different configurations of the variance parameters of the four random components given that the model is quite complex relatively new and becoming quite popular in the panel efficiency literature we feel that there is need for a detailed simulation study to examine when where and how one can use this model with confidence to estimate persistent and transient inefficiency

interest rate volatility and home mortgage loans the us economy has experienced substantial fluctuations in real and nominal interest rates since the 1970s this article investigates empirically the relationship between home mortgage loans and volatility in mortgage rates for the period 1971 02 to 2003 03 contrary to common wisdom we find a positive relationship between mortgage rate volatility and home mortgage loans further investigation indicates that this is due to volatility in the bond market in times of high interest volatility households disinvest in government securities and invest in real assets which yields a positive relationship between mortgage rate volatility and home mortgage loans

regime switching in the reactions of stock markets in saudi arabia to oil price variations the study revisits the stock oil nexus by examining the reactions of equity markets to oil price shocks at national and sectoral levels for saudi arabia in a time varying framework by employing the markov switching egarch model developed by henry 2009 journal of banking and finance 33 405 based on weekly data the findings reveal that the behaviour of all stock markets switches between an expansion regime and a recession regime with more persistence for the expansion state additionally influential international events associated with stock market drops are clearly identified in the recession regime furthermore there is evidence of asymmetric reactions of the equity index returns and the probabilities of transition from one state to another to oil price variations with heterogeneous impacts across sectors and regimes the stock markets are more sensitive to oil price decreases than to oil price increases although the evidence of relatively slight differences in some findings across weekdays the study allows investors and policymakers to understand well the interactions of stock sector markets vis a vis the world oil market in a regime switching framework in order to make the right decision as regards portfolio diversification and regulation of the stock markets

evaluating the impact of agricultural extension on farms performance in crete a nonneutral stochastic frontier approach this article attempts to integrate the production and the efficiency based approaches for evaluating the impact of extension on farms performance for this purpose the nonneutral production frontier model is used and the empirical analysis refers to a sample of farms from crete greece the empirical results support the proposed formulation instead of either the production or the efficiency based formulations as extension was found to have a statistically significant effect on closing both the technology and management gaps public and private extension services were found to be competitive in the production function and complementary in the technical inefficiency effect function in addition farms using both public and private extension services achieved a higher degree of technical efficiency than those using either public or private extension services and farms with no extension services were found to be the least efficient

global warming and the energy efficiency of spanish industry this paper uses a stochastic frontier production function model to analyze the energy efficiency of spanish industry we used minimum cost input demand equations as the reference in order to calculate the demand for electricity gas and other fuels on this basis we found that there is no inherent conflict between the objectives of achieving productive efficiency and reducing energy consumption indeed it is possible to reduce the industrial emissions of co2 by up to 29 4 by means of a bottom up energy efficiency policy however if the government wants firms to reduce their emissions even further then it would be necessary to implement some form of energy regulatory policy in this respect we estimate the cost of reducing co2 emissions by 20

contagion and banking crisis international evidence for 2007 2009 abstract policy makers aim to avoid banking crises and although they can to some extent control domestic conditions internationally transmitted crises are difficult to tackle this paper identifies international contagion in banking during the 2007 2009 crisis for 54 economies we identify three channels of contagion systematic idiosyncratic and volatility and find evidence for these in 45 countries banking crises are overwhelmingly associated with the presence of both systematic and idiosyncratic contagion the results reveal that crisis shocks transmitted from a foreign jurisdiction via idiosyncratic contagion increase the likelihood of a systemic crisis in the domestic banking system by almost 37 percent whereas increased exposure via systematic contagion does not necessarily destabilize the domestic banking system thus while policy makers and regulatory authorities are rightly concerned with the systematic transmission of banking crises reducing the potential for idiosyncratic contagion can importantly reduce the consequences for the domestic economy

the optimal value at risk hedging strategy under bivariate regime switching arch framework unlike the majority of other hedging literatures in which variance is taken as the risk indicator this article uses the value at risk var as the risk management tool of the hedged portfolio this article adopts a bivariate markov regime switching autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic swarch model to formulate the optimal var hedging strategy and then compares it with the other dynamic futures hedging strategies mentioned in the literature in hedging performance using taiwan stock exchange capitalization weighted stock index taiex futures data the in sample and out of sample results shows that when var is used as the criterion to measure the futures hedging effectiveness the performance of the dynamic hedging strategy is superior to that of the static hedging strategy and the performance of the optimal var hedging strategy is better than that of the minimum variance and mean variance hedging strategies besides from the standpoint that the volatility of hedge ratio and hedged portfolio var

technical inefficiency in manufacturing industries this article examines technical inefficiency of manufacturing industry in the united kingdom based on data for 19 023 establishments in 151 industries these data drawn from the annual census of production for 1977 have been used to estimate technical inefficiency in each industry by fitting translog stochastic frontier production functions and decomposing the residuals into two components one measuring inefficiency and the other unobservable random factors the work is the first step in a larger project to explain the sources of technical inefficiency and to compare efficiency between countries similar studies are currently taking place in australia the united states canada japan south korea and norway the first phase of estimation has been completed for the united states caves 1988 for the united kingdom green and mayes 1989 and australia harris 1989

the conservation reserve program as a least cost land retirement mechanism mechanism design theory is used to characterize the properties of a least cost crp if marginal land rents decrease with acres farmed then a least cost crp is a set of nonlinear price schedules if marginal land rents are independent of acres farmed then an offer system constitutes a least cost crp the least cost offer system gives a useful estimate of the upper bound of a least cost crp empirical results suggest that a 34 million acre crp should have cost no more than 1 billion per year

how effective are capital controls a number of authors have recently argued that in order to avoid financial instability emerging countries should rely on capital controls two type of controls have been considered controls on capital outflows and controls on capital inflows in this paper i review the historical evidence on the effectiveness of these two type of controls i argue that controls on outflows have been ineffective they are circumvented and breed corruption i also analyze chile s recent experience with controls on inflows and i argue that their effectiveness has been exaggerated

analysing the determinants of performance of best and worst european banks a mixed logit approach abstract using a dataset of 7635 observations on 1384 commercial banks operating in the eu between 1993 and 2001 we utilise a mixed logit model to identify factors that explain the probability of a bank being a best worst performer the empirical evidence confirms the importance of country level characteristics location and legal tradition and firm level features bank ownership balance sheet structure and size specifically smaller sized banks with higher loan intensity and foreign banks from countries upholding common law traditions have a higher probability of best performance

a study of bank efficiency taking into account risk preferences abstract i use the stochastic cost frontier approach to investigate efficiency of banks operating in the third federal reserve district accounting for the quality and riskiness of bank output in addition to the mean and mode of the conditional distribution of the one sided error term i calculate confidence intervals for the inefficiency measures based on the conditional distribution the results indicate that third district banks are operating at cost efficient output levels and product mixes but are not efficiently using their inputs the second part of the article relates the inefficiency measures to several correlates

correlations in price changes and volatility across international stock markets the short run interdependence of prices and price volatility across three major international stock markets is studied daily opening and closing prices of major stock indexes for the tokyo london and new york stock markets are examined the analysis utilizes the autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic arch family of statistical models to explore these pricing relationships evidence of price volatility spillovers from new york to tokyo london to tokyo and new york to london is observed but no price volatility spillover effects in other directions are found for the pre october 1987 period article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

consumption insurance between japanese households this paper examines the implication of the full insurance hypothesis and differences in its applicability across groups of households in japan using a rare japanese individual panel data set called the japanese panel survey of consumption the paper first shows that the full insurance hypothesis is strongly rejected for the country as a whole the paper further shows that the rich as well as the poor and also college graduates as well as non college graduates cannot insure their consumption against income shocks in sharp contrast urban residents can pool income shocks completely whereas rural residents cannot rural residents suffer from income risks more seriously than urban residents in japan

inverse productivity or inverse efficiency evidence from mexico abstractusing a unique panel data set from rural mexico we find strong evidence of a negative relationship between farm size and both productivity and technical efficiency large farms not only have a lower value of output per hectare than small farms they also produce further from the efficiency frontier our findings suggest that in spite of the ongoing transformation of agricultural supply chains and economists recommendations for small farmers to exit crop production there may be sustained advantages for smallholder farms our analysis offers new insights into inverse farm size relationship the productivity efficiency relationship and the use of stochastic frontier techniques

traditional and nontraditional banking an information theoretic approach abstract this paper uses a multiproduct approach to analyze the costs of a sample of large banks where bank outputs are measured to account for the different types of information produced by banks diseconomies of scope are found between traditional banking activities of originating and monitoring loans and nontraditional activities of loan selling and buying this suggests maintaining fire walls between commercial bank functions and investment bank functions after the glass steagall act is repealed will not sacrifice joint production economies it also suggests that arguments for repeal of the act based on the existence of such economies are ill founded

volatility dependence and contagion in emerging equity markets abstract in this paper we use weekly stock market data for a group of latin american countries to analyze the behavior of volatility through time we are particularly interested in understanding whether periods of high volatility are correlated across countries the analysis uses both on univariate and bivariate switching volatility models our results do not rely on the correlation coefficients but on the co dependence of volatility regimes the results indicate that high volatility episodes are in general short lived lasting from 2 to 12 weeks we find strong evidence of volatility co movements across countries especially among the mercosur countries

sudden spikes in global risk abstract recent episodes october 2008 may 2010 august 2011 have witnessed huge spikes in equity price risk implied volatility apart from their large size several features characterize these risk panics they are global phenomena shared among a broad set of countries there is substantial variation though in the extent to which individual countries are impacted while the impact bears little relation to financial linkages with the epicenter of the crisis in addition there is usually not a large shock to fundamentals that sets off these panics we provide an explanation for these risk panic features in the context of a two country model that allows for self fulfilling shifts in risk

relative wage movements and the distribution of consumption we analyze how relative wage movements among birth cohorts and education groups affected the distribution of household consumption and economic welfare our empirical work draws on the best available cross sectional data sets to construct synthetic panel data on u s consumption labor supply and wages during the 1980s we find that low frequency movements in the cohort education structure of pretax hourly wages among men drove large changes in the distribution of household consumption the results constitute a spectacular failure of between group consumption insurance a failure not explained by existing theories of informationally constrained optimal consumption behavior a welfare analysis indicates that the cost of between group consumption variability is larger than the cost of aggregate consumption variability by two orders of magnitude

banking crises and nonlinear linkages between credit and output in this article we analyse the asymmetric causality linkages between credit growth and output growth during banking crises we employ a recently developed procedure based on a bivariate markov switching model to test the hypotheses of independence causality and asymmetric causality between credit and output using a sample of 103 banking crises around the world we find that neither credit nor output takes precedence as a variable in calm and crisis periods although there is evidence of instantaneous interdependence between the banking and real sector during crises the results suggest that shocks propagate mostly within a year between the banking sector and the real economy the linear link between credit growth and output growth is also regime dependent

the effect of regulatory governance on efficiency of thermal power generation in india a stochastic frontier analysis abstract this paper investigates the impact of institutional quality typified as regulatory governance on the performance of thermal power plants in india the indian power sector was reformed in the early 1990s however reforms are effective only as much as the regulators are committed in ensuring that they are implemented we hypothesize that higher the quality of regulation in a federal indian state higher is the efficiency of electric generation utilities a translog stochastic frontier model is estimated using index of state level independent regulation as one of the determinants of inefficiency the dataset comprises a panel of 77 coal based thermal power plants during the reform period covering over 70 of installed electricity generation capacity the mean technical efficiency of 76 7 indicates there is wide scope for efficiency improvement in the sector results are robust to various model specifications and show that state level regulators have positively impacted plant performance technical efficiency is sensitive to both unbundling of state utilities and regulatory experience the policy implication is that further reforms which empower independent regulators will have far reaching impacts on power sector performance

imperfect insurance and differing propensities to consume across households abstract this paper extends previous tests of consumption insurance by splitting the sample to examine whether the marginal propensity to consume mpc out of idiosyncratic income shocks is larger for low wealth households than it is for high wealth households using data from the psid i find 1 the mpc of low wealth households is higher than that of high wealth households there are indications that both precautionary savings behavior and liquidity constraints contribute to this difference 2 splitting the data using two different measures of wealth indicates that households perceive housing equity as illiquid 3 when low wealth households are split into two subgroups the mpc of the very low wealth group is smaller reflecting the insurance aspects of means tested safety net programs

disentangling the role of the exchange rate in oil related scenarios for the european stock market abstract the literature has been analysing so far the response of the stock market to a distress scenario for oil prices considering prices in domestic currency this assumption implies merging commodity risk and exchange rate risk this article proposes to generate oil related scenario depending on the source of risk the same distress oil related scenario in euros could generate an opposite impact on the european stock market depending on the source of risk results show higher losses for eurostoxx when oil prices in euros experience a downward movement due to a decrease of oil price in us dollars and when oil prices in euros experience an upward movement due to a depreciation of the euro against the us dollar this framework can improve our understanding of how the exchange rate interacts in global markets also it contributes to the design of tailor made international scenarios for stress testing

risk sharing between and within families this paper uses the panel study of income dynamics to test whether risk sharing is complete between or within american families the tests accommodate a wide variety in the configuration and availability of family data the test results reject inter as well as intra family full risk sharing even assuming that leisure is endogenous or that leisure and consumption are nonseparable

enjoying the quiet life under deregulation evidence from adjusted lerner indices for u s banks abstract the quiet life hypothesis posits that firms with market power incur inefficiencies rather than reap monopolistic rents we propose a simple adjustment to lerner indices to account for the possibility of forgone rents to test this hypothesis for a large sample of u s commercial banks we find that adjusted lerner indices are significantly larger than conventional lerner indices and trending upward over time instrumental variable regressions reject the quiet life hypothesis for cost inefficiencies however lerner indices adjusted for profit inefficiencies reveal a quiet life among u s banks

differential impact of korean banking system reforms on bank productivity abstract we study the impact of banking system reforms during a crisis following a period of undisciplined lending regulatory changes aimed at strengthening the banks capital structure and risk management practices do not have a uniform impact on bank productivity but rather favor financially sound or strategically privileged banks we present evidence documenting the differential impact of regulatory reforms on korean commercial bank productivity over the period 1995 2005 average technical efficiency of banks decreased during the financial crisis of 1997 1998 it improved following the subsequent bank restructuring and continued to improve through 2005 the capital adequacy ratio is positively associated with banks technical efficiency the non performing loans ratio is negatively associated with technical efficiency both relationships are accentuated during the crisis but attenuated after the reforms

product market competition and the financing of new ventures this paper examines the interaction between venture risk product market competition and the entrepreneur s choice between bank financing and venture capital vc financing under bank financing a debt type contract emerges as optimal which allows the entrepreneur to retain full control of the venture and thus yields strong effort incentives as long as the entrepreneur can service the debt repayment however this leads to liquidation in the case of default making the venture s success quite sensitive to exogenous even temporary shocks that may hinder debt repayment under vc financing an equity type contract emerges as optimal although it is not sensitive to exogenous shocks this contract requires the entrepreneur to share a fraction of the rents with the financier thus yielding lower effort incentives for the entrepreneur there exists a threshold level of venture risk such that bank financing is optimal if and only if venture risk is below that threshold product market competition increases the value of stronger entrepreneurial incentives and thus increases the maximum level of risk the entrepreneur is willing to take before switching from bank financing to vc financing this is a robust result that is shown to hold in various models of competition including the hotelling salop dixit stiglitz and cournot to bertrand switch this paper was accepted by lee fleming entrepreneurship and innovation

measurement of abnormal returns from small firms correction for heteroscedasticity in returns from portfolios long in small firms and short in large firms listed on the new york stock exchange reduces the estimate of market risk and increases the estimated abnormal return greatly improved diagnostic test statistics are obtained strengthening the evidence for the existence of positive average abnormal returns from small firms periodicity of order 6 and 12 months is identified the estimation procedure operates by exploiting the autoregressive pattern of heteroscedasticity in the return data

measuring efficiency at u s banks accounting for heterogeneity is important abstract estimates of bank cost efficiency can be biased if bank heterogeneity is ignored i compare x inefficiency derived from a model constraining the cost frontier to be the same for all banks in the u s and a model allowing for different frontiers and error terms across federal reserve districts i find that the data reject the single cost function model x inefficiency measures based on the single cost function model are on average higher than those based on the separate cost functions model the distributions of the one sided error terms are wider for the single cost function model than for the separate cost functions model and the ranking of districts by the level of x inefficiency differs in the two models the results suggest it is important when studying x inefficiency to account for differences across the markets in which banks are operating and that since x inefficiency is by construction a residual it will be particulary sensitive to omissions in the basic model

estimating product specific and multiproduct economies of scale with data envelopment analysis nonparametric cost frontier estimation and subsequent analysis of the relative efficiency of firms has historically been conducted without critically examining the shape of the cost frontier the shape of the cost frontier has been examined using additional parametric estimation methods to recover potential cost savings from multiproduct and product specific economies of scale this paper presents and tests an approach to estimate multiproduct and product specific economies of scale using data envelopment analysis data for the study are simulated assuming an underlying production technology nonparametric estimates of efficiency multiproduct scale product specific scale and scope economies are compared to those of the assumed production technology results show that the nonparametric approach accurately estimates multiproduct economies of scale and product specific economies of scale under alternative inefficiency distributional assumptions

an examination of cost subadditivity and multiproduct production in large u s banks this paper examines the subadditivity of costs for a sample of the largest commercial banks in the u s we introduce into the bank production literature the grid approach developed by evans and heckman 1984 we estimate two models of the bank cost function one where deposits are treated as outputs while in the other deposits are treated as inputs the models are estimated using the commonly used translog and the more flexible miniflex laurent viewed narrowly the findings imply that cost complementarities are not the raison d etre for multiproduct production in the largest commercial banks subadditive costs however are sufficient but not necessary for multiproduct production it is quite possible for multiproduct production to be optimal when output are produced independently levy and haber 1986 and teece 1980 1982 it is only required that inputs be shareable as opposed to joint copyright 1990 by ohio state university press

deregulation intensity of competition industry evolution and the productivity growth of u s commercial banks we study the influence of the evolution in intrastate and interstate deregulations on the total factor productivity growth of u s commercial banking during 1971 95 we consider statewide deregulations in intrastate branching intrastate multibank holding company mbhc interstate multibank holding company and interstate mbhc de novo branching regulations results indicate that 1 long standing banking restrictions negatively affected banks productivity growth and 2 relaxing restrictions on intrastate branching expansion had a positive long run influence upon banks productivity growth the effect of interstate mbhc deregulations is largely short run and it is negative in the long run for interstate mbhc de novo branching deregulations

simple cost sharing contracts we extend rogerson s 2003 intriguing analysis of the performance of simple procurement contracts to consider settings where the supplier s innate production cost is not necessarily distributed uniformly although the simple contract that rogerson analyzes performs remarkably well when the smaller cost realizations are relatively likely it can perform poorly when the larger cost realizations are relatively likely we show that in all settings under consideration though a fairly simple pair of contracts one that involves linear cost sharing and one that involves full cost reimbursement can always secure more than 73 of the gain achieved with a fully optimal contract

speculative behavior and the dynamics of interacting stock markets abstract we develop a simple agent based financial market model in which heterogeneous speculators apply technical and fundamental analysis to trade in two different stock markets speculators strategy market selections are repeated at each time step and depend on predisposition effects herding behavior and market circumstances simulations reveal that our model is able to explain a number of nontrivial statistical properties of and between international stock markets including bubbles and crashes fat tailed return distributions volatility clustering persistent trading volume coevolving stock prices and cross correlated volatilities against this background our model may be deemed to have been validated

estimating a stochastic production frontier when the adjusted error is symmetric abstract econometric analysis of production frontiers usually assumes that the adjusted error is asymmetric and negatively skewed this paper considered the case of a symmetric adjusted error an empirical example using data on ontario dairy farms shows that this approach gives results similar to those achieved by using a linear programming method

technological inefficiency and the skewness of the error component in stochastic frontier analysis this paper concentrates on negatively skewed one sided distributions as an explanation of the occurrence of positive negative skewness in the case of stochastic production cost frontier analysis it takes as an example the binomial distribution that can have negative or positive skew and derives the method of moments estimators

the efficiency of firms what difference does competition make in cournot oligopoly the efficiency of a firm relative to others determines its market share this relationship gives an incentive to improve efficiency the incentives are greater in markets where firm behaviour is more competitive components of firm efficiency are identified by frontier production function techniques in 19 uk manufacturing sectors technical change average efficiency of each firm relative to the frontier and the efficiency of each firm relative to its own best practice in each period short run declines in market shares and profits induce the firm to improve efficiency relative to its best practice long run differences in efficiency are correlated with differences in gross investment

credibility and changes in policy regime this paper addresses the issue of credibility from an econometric perspective it develops a rational expectations model of inflation in which the dynamics are driven by the level of government spending and by the effect of past inflation rates on the value of real taxes government expenditure is modeled as an exogenous autoregressive process subject to discrete changes in regime the regimes are defined by whether the level of spending is or is not consistent with the rate of inflation targeted by the government as part of a stabilization program in making their money demand decision the agents need to construct probability inferences regarding the state of the expenditure process credibility is quantified by the agents inferred probability that the joint observation of inflation the nominal interest rate and government spending is generated by the reformed expenditure regime in an application to israel results indicate that the failed stabilization program of november 1984 was less than fully c

risk coping and starvation in rural china we use a 3 year panel from two poor provinces in southern china to examine the nature of risks to which rural households are exposed and their ability to insure calorie consumption and spending of total consumption against idiosyncratic shocks to their income we find that idiosyncratic risks are indeed the main source of income variation in the sample consumption is better insured than total spending unlike total spending where full insurance is rejected in most cases calorie intake is completely insured for both land rich and land poor households in both provinces access to even modest amounts of land significantly enhances households ability to guard against total spending land rich households are much better insured against total spending than land poor households the results are robust across model specifications although generalized method of moments gmm estimations increase the magnitude of difference in total spending between the land rich and the land poor policies targeting poverty red

fdi trade and spillover efficiency evidence from china s manufacturing sector using firm data from the 1995 third industrial census of china this paper finds that the presence of foreign ownership has a positive and significant effect on domestic firms productivity moreover trading with more advanced countries helps china gain access to new technology and information which improves its productivity and enables it to compete in international markets it is found that china s imports from oecd and the four asian tigers and exports to oecd have positive effects on domestic firms productivity by dividing industries into high technology gap and low technology gap groups it is found that the spillover effects of fdi are larger for the low technology gap group than for the high technology gap group however the estimation results of the trade induced technology spillover effect support the technology gap learning theory and the significance of importing appropriate technology

effects of heterogeneity on bank efficiency scores bank efficiency estimates often serve as a proxy of managerial skill since they quantify sub optimal production choices but such deviations can also be due to omitted systematic differences among banks in this study we examine the effects of heterogeneity on bank efficiency scores we compare different specifications of a stochastic cost and alternative profit frontier model with a baseline specification after conducting a specification test we discuss heterogeneity effects on efficiency levels ranks and the tails of the efficiency distribution we find that heterogeneity controls influence both banks optimal costs and profits and their ability to be efficient differences in efficiency scores are important for more than only methodological reasons first different ways of accounting for heterogeneity result in estimates of foregone profits and additional costs that are significantly different from what we infer from our general specification second banks are significantly re ranked when their efficiency is estimated with a specification other than the preferred general specification third the general specification gives the most reliable estimates of the probability of distress although differences to the other specifications are low

full insurance in the presence of aggregate uncertainty this paper tests implications of full consumption insurance the object is to determine how much mileage can be obtained from a model with complete markets with such features as private information or liquidity constraints omitted the implication exploited is that individual consumption responds to aggregate risk but not to idiosyncratic risk the test involves regressing the change in household consumption onto the change in aggregate consumption and other right hand side variables such as the change in household income and change in employment status all variables other than the change in aggregate consumption are predicted to be insignificant in explaining the change in household consumption with observations on consumption and income for 10 695 households from the consumer expenditure survey the results are mixed the results for one specification exponential utility are mostly consistent with full consumption insurance the results for the other specification power utility are not

a complete solution to a class of principal agent problems with an application to the control of a self managed firm this paper considers a class of principal agent problems which have the following features 1 there is adverse selection because the principal ignores the value of one parameter of the agent s true characteristics 2 leaving aside the information parameter the principal s welfare as well as the agent s welfare depend on two types of variables observable to both of them the first ones possibly multidimensional are called action variable s and the second one which is one dimensional has in general the meaning of a money transfer 3 the principal is a stackelberg leader of the two person game he can commit himself to decision rules which are admissible on informational grounds he optimizes within the adequate class taking into account besides the agent s reaction one constraint which has generally the meaning of an individual rationality constraint and sometimes of a feasibility constraint the optimization is limited to the class of non stochastic mechanisms 4 the problem can also receive an alternative interpretation the principal faces a continuum of agents of unknown characteristics the distribution being known however stylized principal agent problems of this type have often been considered in the economic literature in particular the reader will later be able to recognize that the standard income tax model a la mirrlees 1971 the quality or quantity choice model of the monopolist a la mussa and rosen 1978 or maskin and riley 1982 and the model of government regulation of the private monopolist of baron and myerson 1982 all belong to

efficiency in the savings and loan industry abstract the stochastic econometric cost frontier approach is modified to investigate efficiency in mutual and stock s ls using 1991 data on u s s ls this methodology allows both the cost frontier and error structures to differ between s ls of these two ownership forms a likelihood ratio test indicates that the data support this unrestricted model which implies efficient mutual and stock s ls use different production technologies various measures of inefficiency show that on average stock s ls are less efficient than mutual s ls the second part of the article relates the inefficiency measures to several correlates

interest rate volatility in emerging markets we use high frequency interest rate data for a group of latin american and asian countries to analyze the behavior of volatility through time we focus on volatility comovements across countries our analysis relies on univariate and bivariate switching volatility models we compare the results from the switching models with those from rolling standard deviation models we argue that the switching models are superior our results indicate that high volatility episodes are in general short lived lasting from 2 to 7 weeks we also find some evidence of interest rate volatility comovements across countries

implementing second best environmental policy under adverse selection abstract a key obstacle to practical application of mechanism design theory to regulation is the difficulty of obtaining consistent beliefs regarding information that theoretical models assume to be commonly held this article presents a solution to this problem by developing an easily implemented empirical methodology with which the government can use available data to develop beliefs regarding the technology and distribution of types in a regulated sector characterized by hidden information results are used to calibrate a second best land conservation mechanism and evaluate its cost relative to simpler alternatives

a simple test of consumption insurance are consumers effectively insured against idiosyncratic shocks to income or wealth either by formal institutions such as charities private insurance and government programs or by informal mechanisms such as gifts and loans from relatives friends and neighbors under full insurance consumption growth should be cross sectionally independent of idiosyncratic variables that are exogenous to consumers this proposition is tested by cross sectional regressions of consumption growth on a variety of exogenous variables full insurance is rejected for long illness and involuntary job loss but not for spells of unemployment loss of work due to strike and an involuntary move

meteor showers or heat waves heteroskedastic intra daily volatility in the foreign exchange market this paper seeks to explain the causes of volatility clustering in exchange rates careful examination of intra daily exchange rates provides a test of two hypotheses heat waves and meteor showers the heat wave hypothesis is that the volatility has only country specific autocorrelation alternatively the meteor shower is a phenomenon of intra daily volatility spillovers from one market to the next using the garch model to specify the heteroskedasticity across intra daily market segments we find that the empirical evidence is generally against the null hypothesis of the heat wave using a volatility type of vector autoregression we examine the impact of news in one market on the time path of per hour volatility in other markets

estimating cost functions in regulated industries characterized by asymmetric information abstract in this paper a structural model is developed to estimate a cost function that includes both an adverse selection and a moral hazard variable it is shown how traditional cost function estimates may produced biased results if moral hazard is present this gives an alternative reason to feinstein and wolak the econometric implications of incentive compatible regulation in g f rhodes ed advances in econometrics vol 9 159 204 jai press greenwich ct 1991 of why scale economics may be overestimated in regulated industries parameter estimates from our model can be used to design an optimal contract or any other regulatory mechanism we illustrate our approach using data from the norwegian bus transport industry

a bargaining model of farrell inefficiency abstract an enormous number of empirical papers have estimated technical efficiency the distance of firms inside a frontier following the model of farrell farrell 1957 the measurement of productive efficiency journal of the royal statistical society series a 120 3 253 290 we propose a theory that explains the distance these empirical papers seek to measure the theory is based on the idea that workers can bargain low effort high crew sizes etc if they and the firm have some monopoly power we provide simple theoretical expressions for the empirical measures of technical and allocative efficiency and compare them to those in the statistical literature we also consider the relation between competition and efficiency

determinants of non life insurance expenditure in developed and developing countries an empirical investigation the determinants of non life insurance expenditure in a panel data set covering 36 developed countries and 31 developing countries for the period 2000 2011 are analysed results of our instrumental variable analysis indicate that economic freedom income bank development urbanization culture and law systems are the key drivers of the non life insurance expenditure across countries however their impacts differ significantly between the groups of developed and developing countries suggesting that the heterogeneity among countries in terms of the level of development plays an important role the global financial crisis is also found to influence the direction of those effects especially in developed countries the article yields useful policy and economic implications for governments and multinational non life insurance companies with regard to the development of the non life insurance sector an important engine for economic growth and prosperity

a translog cost function analysis of u s agriculture 1939 77 over the past four decades major changes have occurred in u s agriculture a new era in agricultural production in the united states began in 1939 world war ii gave a boost to agriculture still bogged in the depression productivity increases over the period 1939 77 have been quite impressive measured crudely by the ratio of the indices of output and input the productivity index 1967 100 increased from 59 in 1939 to 119 in 1977 to study this phenomenon a multi input translog cost function incorporating hicks neutral technical change hntc was specified annual timeseries data for the united states was used to estimate the model neoclassical duality theory provides an approach for computing the pairwise elasticities of substitution between inputs for each year as well as the annual own and cross price elasticities of demand for inputs

the variation of productivity within british and german industries unweighted average labor productivities indicate an even larger german advantage over britain than the usual employment weighted averages the difference between these two averages is used to compare the dispersion of productivity within fifteen matched industries with positive correlations between productivity and size in eight of them the dispersion of productivity in britain appears to be higher which is consistent with a long tail of low productivity businesses vulnerable to the single european market british vulnerability in the remaining seven industries is even greater copyright 1992 by blackwell publishing ltd

cluster sample methods in applied econometrics inference methods that recognize the clustering of individual observations have been available for more than 25 years brent moulton 1990 caught the attention of economists when he demonstrated the serious biases that can result in estimating the effects of aggregate explanatory variables on individual specific response variables the source of the downward bias in the usual ordinary least squares ols standard errors is the presence of an unobserved state level effect in the error term more recently john pepper 2002 showed how accounting for multi level clustering can have dramatic effects on t statistics while adjusting for clustering is much more common than it was 10 years ago inference methods robust to cluster correlation are not used routinely across all relevant settings in this paper i provide an overview of applications of cluster sample methods both to cluster samples and to panel data sets

volatility spillovers in east asian financial markets a mem based approach abstract we model the interrelations of equity market volatility in eight east asian countries before during and after the asian currency crisis using a new class of asymmetric volatility multiplicative error models based on the daily range we find that dynamic propagation of volatility shocks occurs through a network of interdependencies and shocks originating in hong kong may be amplified in their transmission throughout the system posing greater risks to the region than shocks originating elsewhere although this partly explains the severity of the currency crisis we also find evidence that parameters shifted making the system more unstable during the crisis

protecting the environment when costs and benefits are privately known in this survey i analyze different approaches for protecting the environment when stakeholders are privately informed about the costs and benefits of pollution reduction the presence of asymmetric information calls for some important departures from the textbook prescriptions of marketable permits and emission taxes for controlling pollution for instance it may no longer be optimal to equate the social marginal benefits to the marginal cost of cleanup in determining appropriate abatement levels i conclude this review with some suggestions for future research in this area

regulating pollution under asymmetric information the case of industrial wastewater treatment abstract we present in this paper an empirical evaluation of a contract based environmental regulation under asymmetric information an imperfect pollution tax results in the necessity of regulating industrials by a contract based policy in order to promote a higher level of pollution removal the local regulatory agency has imperfect information on costs of abatement and must design a feasible mechanism providing incentives for industrials to extend their wastewater treatment plant capacity the optimal policy consists in regulating only the most efficient industrials in the abatement activity empirical evidence reveals that the pollution tax should be more than twice its present level to attain the fully internalizing pigouvian tax level

incentives for wetland creation abstract when information about soil quality is complete wetland creation with a take it or leave it contract which specifies wetland size and transfer yields higher social benefits than if a uniform contract which offers a payment proportional to the wetland size had been used this result points to a paradox because uniform contracts have been used a lot in practice this article concentrates on the presence of asymmetric information about soil quality as a possible explanation for this paradox it shows that the choice of instrument for wetland creation has welfare implications different contracts typically yield quite different social welfare surpluses and distribution between interest groups it is not obvious which of four contracts studied dominates when a farm characteristic affecting costs is unknown to the social planner the probability distribution of the characteristic the size of the excess burden the elasticity of costs and benefits to wetland size and the cost of acquiring missing information influence the outcome

financial markets in times of stress abstract in this paper we examine which markets are most synchronized internationally and exhibit the greater extent of co movement we focus on daily data for four asset markets bonds equities foreign exchange and domestic money market our sample covers 35 developed and emerging market countries during 1997 1999 the extent of co movement and responsiveness to external shocks is examined in different ways to measure the response of these markets to adverse external shocks we date the peaks in domestic interest rates and bond spreads and the largest daily declines in equity prices and assess the extent of clustering around the same period we also analyze which markets show evidence of greatest co movement in general irrespective of whether there are adverse shocks or not

persistence in variance structural change and the garch model this article examines the persistence of the variance as measured by the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity garch model in stock return data in particular we investigate the extent to which persistence in variance may be overstated because of the existence of and failure to take account of deterministic structural shifts in the model both an analysis of daily stock return data and a monte carlo simulation experiment confirm the hypothesis that garch measures of persistence in variance are sensitive to this type of model misspecification

the roles of inter fuel substitution and inter market contagion in driving energy prices evidences from china s coal market abstract coal has been dominating energy supply and consumption in china with the country becoming the largest energy supplier and consumer worldwide due to inter fuel substitution of crude oil and inter market contagion of international coal market china s coal price might be interrelated with crude oil price and international coal price however the precise roles of these two effects in determining china s coal price are unknown this paper contributes to previous literature by investigating this issue we find that co movements between china s coal price and crude oil price largely hinge on the shares of oil and coal in china s energy mix while its co movements with international coal price depend on scales of coal trade inter fuel substitution dominated the interaction of china s coal market with other energy types but the importance of inter market contagion has been increasing we also find that china might have become an originator for driving the returns of crude oil and international coal in particular after 2008 furthermore china s coal market is still a net volatility recipient for shocks from both crude oil market and international coal market given the increased integration of global energy markets we anticipate this paper to provide a better understanding on the dynamic changes in china s coal prices