the life cycle effects of house price changes we develop a life cycle model that explicitly incorporates the dual feature of housing as both a consumption good and an investment asset our analysis indicates that the consumption and welfare consequences of house price changes on individual households vary significantly in particular the non housing consumption of young and old homeowners is much more sensitive to house price changes than that of middle aged homeowners more importantly while house price appreciation increases the net worth and consumption of all homeowners it only improves the welfare of old homeowners renters and young homeowners are worse off due to higher lifetime housing consumption costs

time preferences and mortgage choice abstractmortgage decisions have important consequences for consumers lenders and the state of the economy more generally mortgage decisions are also prototypical of consumer financial choices that involve a stream of expenditures and consumption occurring across time the authors use heterogeneity in time preferences for both immediate present bias and long term outcomes to explain a sequence of mortgage decisions including mortgage choice and the decision to abandon a mortgage the authors employ an analytic model and a survey of mortgaged households augmented by zip code level house price and foreclosure data the model suggests and data confirm that consumers with greater present bias and long term discounting tend to choose mortgages that minimize up front costs however greater present bias decreases homeowners willingness to abandon a mortgage locking them into the contract long term patience increases mortgage abandonment this reversal across mortgage decisions is difficult for alternati

collateral damage refinancing constraints and regional recessions in the current structure of the u s residential mortgage market a decrease in property values may make it very difficult for homeowners to refinance their mortgages to take advantage of declining interest rates in this papr we show that this form of collateral constraint has greatly reduced refinancing in statds with depressed property markets we outline the interaction between regional recessions and refinancing constraints when adverse economic shocks cause property values in a region to decrease the damage to the collateral makes it difficult or impossible for some homeowners to obtain new mortgages in the recent period this has meant that homeowners in economically depressed regions have been unable to refinance their mortgages to take advantage of declining interest rates this inability to refinance has further economic impacts on the region through lowering the wealth and the discretionary income of local homeowners thereby deepening the regional recession while the possible link between regional declines in property values and refinancing activity has been understood for some time for example monsen 1992 the subject has received very little empirical attention we provide the first quantitative assessment of the impact of constraints arising from regional property market dynamics on refinancing activity to accomplish this we use a new data set on more than thirty five thousand individual mortgages the sample consists of all mortgages serviced by chemical bank with originations between june 1989 and may 1992

employer matching and 401 k saving evidence from the health and retirement study abstract employer matching of employee 401 k contributions is often touted as a powerful incentive to save for retirement and is a key component in pension plan design in the united states using detailed administrative contribution earnings and pension plan data from the health and retirement study this analysis formulates a life cycle consistent econometric specification of 401 k saving and estimates the determinants of saving accounting for non linearities in the household budget set induced by matching the participation estimates indicate that an increase in the match rate by 25 cents per dollar of employee contribution raises 401 k participation by 5 percentage points the parametric and semi parametric estimates for saving indicate that an increase in the match rate by 25 cents per dollar of employee contribution raises 401 k saving by 365 in 1991 dollars overall the analysis reveals that the 401 k saving response to matching is quite inelastic and hence matching is a rather poor policy instrument with which to raise retirement saving

the equilibrium effect of fundamentals on house prices and rents abstract using a dynamic equilibrium model of housing tenure choice with fully specified markets for homeownership and rental properties and endogenous house prices and rents this paper studies the effect of fundamentals on equilibrium house prices and rents lower interest rates relaxed lending standards and higher incomes are shown to account for approximately one half of the increase in the u s house price rent ratio between 1995 and 2006 and to generate the pattern of rapidly growing house prices sluggish rents increasing homeownership and rising household indebtedness observed in the data

household risk management and optimal mortgage choice the portfolio of the typical american household is quite unlike the diversie ed portfolio of liquid assets discussed in e nance textbooks the major asset in the portfolio is a house a relatively illiquid asset with an uncertain capital value the value of the house generally exceeds the net worth of the household which e nances its homeownership through a mortgage contract to create a leveraged position in residential real estate other e nancial assets and liabilities are typically far less important than the house and its associated mortgage contract the importance of housing in household wealth is illustrated in figure i this e gure plots the fraction of household assets in housing and in equities against the wealth percentile of the household poor households appear at the left of the e gure and wealthy households at the right data come from the 1989 and 1998 survey of consumer finances the e gure shows that middle class american families from roughly the fortieth to the eightieth percentile of the wealth distribution have more than half their assets in the form of housing even after the expansion of equity ownership during the 1990s equities are of negligible importance for these households 1

prepayment and the valuation of mortgage backed securities this paper puts forward a valuation framework for mortgage backed securities rather than imposing an optimal value minimizing call condition we assume that at each point in time there exists a probability of prepaying this conditional probability depends upon the prevailing state of the economy to implement our valuation procedure we use maximum likelihood techniques to estimate a prepayment function in light of recent aggregate gnma prepayment experience by integrating this empirical prepayment function into our valuation framework we provide a complete model to value mortgagebacked securities given an optimal value minimizing call policy a mortgage should never be called when its market value is less than its call price similarly a mortgage should be called if it is worth more than its call price however mortgagors often call their loans when the prevailing refinancing rate exceeds the contract rate on the loan dunn and mcconnell 1981 in addition some mortgagors do not call their loans when the loan s contract rate exceeds the prevailing refinancing rate the purpose of this paper is to put forward a valuation framework for mortgagebacked securities consistent with these stylized facts associated with mortgage prepayments the mortgagor s prepayment decision is integral to our valuation framework however we do not impose an optimal value minimizing call condition to price these securities rather we assume that at each point in time there exists a probability of prepaying this conditional probability depending upon the prevailing state of the economy by integrating this prepayment function into our valuation framework we provide a complete model to value mortgage backed securities to implement our valuation procedures we estimate a prepayment function given recent gnma prepayment experience we follow green and shoven 1986 by using a proportional hazards model to estimate the influence of various explanatory variables or covariates on the mortgagor s prepayment decision distinct from green and shoven we explicitly model the effects of seasoning as well as investigating the influence of interest cost savings from refinancing in addition we also consider the effects of lagged refinancing rates heterogeneity

interest rate changes and borrower search behavior abstract borrower search behavior regarding an outside lender is correlated with interest rate changes the results of a survey among german households reveal that surprisingly few mortgage borrowers switch to an outside lender when refinancing in a period of declining interest rates although non switching borrowers face significantly higher interest rates a laboratory experiment which adds the case of rising interest rates reveals that borrowers efforts to screen offers by outside lenders are significantly higher when interest rates rise than when they fall this behavior cannot be reconciled with alternative explanations overall several billion p a are transferred to lenders

housing finance and monetary policy we document three facts concerning how the structure of housing finance affects the monetary transmission mechanism first the characteristics of residential mortgage markets differ markedly across industrialized countries second the impact of monetary policy shocks to residential investment and house prices is significantly stronger in those countries with larger flexibility development of mortgage markets third the transmission to consumption is stronger only in those countries where mortgage equity release is common and mortgage contracts are predominantly of the variable rate type we then build a two sector dsge model with financial constraints to rationalize those facts

the nature of precautionary wealth abstract this paper uses the panel study of income dynamics to provide some of the first direct evidence that wealth is systematically higher for consumers with predictably greater income uncertainty however the apparent pattern of precautionary wealth is not consistent with a standard parameterization of the life cucle model in which consumers are patient enough to begin saving for retirement early in life wealth is estimated to be far less sensitive to uncertainty than implied by that model instead our results suggest that over most of their working life time consumers behave in accordance with the buffer stock models of saving described in carroll 1992 1997 or deaton 1991 in which consumers hold wealth principally to insulate consumption against near term fluctuations in income

housing dynamics over the business cycle housing construction measured by housing starts leads gdp in a number of countries measured as residential investment the lead is observed only in the united states and canada elsewhere residential investment is coincident variants of existing theory however predict housing construction lagging gdp in all countries in the sample nominal interest rates are low ahead of gdp peaks introducing long term nominal mortgages and an estimated process for nominal interest rates into a standard model aligns the theory with observations on starts as mortgages transmit nominal rates into real housing costs longer time to build makes residential investment cyclically coincident abstract from author

housing demand during the boom the role of expectations and credit constraints i use a life cycle model of housing demand to infer expectations about house prices and home equity requirements for the housing boom of the 2000s from observed household choices expectations and credit constraints are separately identified from the intensive and extensive margins of housing demand the main results are that 1 expected price growth was close to average long run growth 2 home equity requirements were lax initially but tightened after the bust and 3 subjective uncertainty about future price growth was large given the option to default on mortgage debt greater price uncertainty leads to higher optimal household leverage

household debt and monetary policy revealing the cash flow channel we study the effect of monetary policy on spending when households hold debt with variable interest rates when interest rates on outstanding loans vary with the short term market interest rate monetary policy has a direct and immediate effect on households expenses and disposable income if households are borrowing constrained they will respond to a shock to disposable income by adjusting their spending as a result a monetary policy induced interest rate change leads to a larger change in consumption than what is predicted by the elasticity of intertemporal substitution we examine this cash flow channel of monetary policy using administrative data on swedish households we estimate a strong and statistically significant response in spending to changes in interest expenses more specifically we estimate a marginal propensity to consume including durable consumption that is around unity or even higher in response to monetary policy induced changes in interest expenses for example highly indebted households with adjustable rate mortgages reduce consumption growth by several percentage points more in response to a one percentage point increase in the household interest rate than households with little debt or fixed rate mortgages our findings imply that monetary policy will have a stronger effect on real economic activity when households are highly indebted and have adjustable rate mortgages jel classification d14 e21 e52 g11

the effect of housing on portfolio choice we show that characterizing the effects of housing on portfolios requires distinguishing between the effects of home equity and mortgage debt we isolate exogenous variation in home equity and mortgages by using differences across housing markets in house prices and housing supply elasticities as instruments increases in property value holding home equity constant reduce stockholdings while increases in home equity wealth holding property value constant raise stockholdings the stock share of liquid wealth would rise by 1 percentage point 6 of the mean stock share if a household were to spend 10 less on its house holding fixed wealth

portfolio choice with puts evidence from variable annuities this study investigated the asset allocation behavior of individuals who select an out of the money long dated longevity put option on their investment funds the asset allocations of these people within their variable annuity subaccounts are 5 30 percent more risky than the allocations of those who do not choose this protection investors who do not choose the longevity put option follow the classic life cycle age phased reduction in equity a rudimentary model of utility maximizing behavior is suggested that justifies the increased allocation to risk as long as the investor understands the payoff structure of the longevity put and is willing and able to exercise the annuity option if and when it matures in the money

who should buy long term bonds according to conventional wisdom long term bonds are appropriate for conservative long term investors this paper develops a model of optimal consumption and portfolio choice for infinite lived investors with recursive utility who face stochastic interest rates solves the model using an approximate analytical method and evaluates conventional wisdom as risk aversion increases the myopic component of risky asset demand disappears but the intertemporal hedging component does not conservative investors hold assets to hedge the risk that real interest rates will decline long term inflation indexed bonds are most suitable for this purpose but nominal bonds may also be used if inflation risk is low

rational prepayment and the valuation of mortgage backed securities this article presents a new model of mortgage prepayments based on rational decisions by mortgage holders these mortgage bolders face beterogeneous transaction costs which are explicitly modeled the model is estimated using a version of hansen s 1982 generalized method of moments and is sbown to capture many of the empirical features of mortgage prepayment estimation results indicate that mortgage holders act as tbougb tbey face transaction costs tbat far exceed tbe explicit costs usually incurred on refinancing they also wait an average of more than a year before refinancing even when it is optimal to do so the model fits observed prepayment behavior as well as thee recent empirical model of schwartz and torous 1989 implications for pricing mortgage backed securities are discussed

interest rate changes mortgages and consumption evidence from italy summaryusing the italian survey of household income and wealth we study whether the drop in interest rates following the great recession was associated with an increase in consumption for households with adjustable rate mortgages arm relative to those with fixed rate mortgages frm after the reduction in mortgage payments consumption of arm holders increases relative to frm but the implied marginal propensity to consume is not statistically different from zero we suggest three explanations for the weak consumption response to the income shock first cash on hand and debt heterogeneity may attenuate the consumption response second borrowers believe that the income shock was short lasting and that interest rates would likely increase in the future implying a small effect on consumption third the shock is offset partly by a reduction in income from financial assets owned by mortgagors the findings have implications for the conduct of monetary policy interventions and the credibility of the future path of interest rates pass through of monetary policy and design of the mortgage market

financial illiteracy and mortgage refinancing decisions we analyze the effect of an exogenous shock to the italian mortgage market where a reform has abolished prepayment fees and simplified mortgage refinancing making it a virtually cost free decision for households this law along with the considerable drop in market interest rates has generated important gains for fixed rate borrowers which we quantify at up to 15 of the principal balance nevertheless only about 13 of borrowers have locked in this opportunity we study the relationship between this sluggish behavior and their level of financial literacy

fixed and variable rate mortgages business cycles and monetary policy the aim of this paper is twofold first i study how the proportion of xed and variable rate mortgages in an economy can aect the way shocks are propagated second i analyze optimal implementable simple monetary policy rules and the welfare implications of this proportion i develop and solve a new keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that features a housing market and a group of constrained individuals who need housing collateral to obtain loans a given proportion of constrained households borrows at a variable rate while the rest borrows at a xed rate the model predicts that in an economy with mostly variable rate mortgages an exogenous interest rate shock has larger eects on borrowers than in a xed rate economy aggregate eects are also larger for the variable rate economy for plausible parametrizations dierences are muted by wealth eects on labor supply and by the presence of savers more persistent shocks such as in ation target and technology shocks cause larger aggregate dierences from a normative perspective i nd that in the presence of collateral constraints the optimal taylor rule is less aggressive against in ation than in the standard sticky price model furthermore for given monetary policy a high proportion of xed rate mortgages is welfare enhancing

borrowing in foreign currency austrian households as carry traders household borrowing in a foreign currency is a widespread phenomenon in austria thirteen percent of austrian households report their housing loan to be denominated in foreign currency mostly swiss franc yet despite its importance peculiar character and acute policy concerns we know little about the attitudes and characteristics of the households involved in this type of carry trade we analyze a uniquely detailed financial wealth survey of 2556 austrian households to sketch a comprehensive profile of the attitudes and characteristics of the households involved we employ both univariate tests and multivariate multinomial logit models the survey data suggest that risk seeking affluent and married households are more likely to take a housing loan in a foreign currency financially literate or high income households are more likely to take a housing loan in general these findings partially assuage policy concerns about household default risk on foreign currency housing loans or household retirement security

monk mortgages in a new keynesian model abstract there has been much interest recently in the role of household long term mortgage debt in the transmission of monetary policy this paper offers a tractable framework that integrates the long term debt channel with the standard new keynesian channel providing a tool for monetary policy analysis that reflects the recent debates in the literature as there is a nontrivial role in the model for both short and long term debt it provides a laboratory to investigate the effects of monetary policy operating not only through its current short term actions but also through expected persistent changes in its stance

indicators of collateral misreporting automated valuation models avms are widely used in the valuation of pools of residential mortgages in this paper we provide evidence that high pricing errors in human and automated valuation models as well as rejection of loans with relatively low appraisals may generate the appearance of appraisal bias even when the original appraisals are unbiased we also present evidence that the estimated frequency of appraisal overstatement is quite sensitive to assumptions about loan denial rates due to low appraisals as well as the size of and the correlation between avm and original appraisal pricing errors this paper was accepted by amit seru finance

mitigating financial fragility with continuous workout mortgages abstract this paper models continuous workout mortgages cwms in an economic environment with refinancings and prepayments cwms are home loans whose balance and payments are indexed using a market observable house price index of the pertaining locality our main results include a explicit modelling of repayment and interest only cwms b closed form formula for mortgage payment and mortgage balance of a repayment cwm c a closed form formula for the actuarially fair mortgage rate of an interest only cwm for repayment cwms we extend our analysis to include two negotiable parameters adjustable workout proportion and adjustable workout threshold these results are of importance as they not only help in the understanding of the mechanics of cwms and estimating key contract parameters but they also provide insight on how to enhance the resilience of the financial architecture and mitigate systemic risk

mortgage valuation under optimal prepayment mortgage originators offer borrowers various combinations of points loan fees and coupon high points and low coupon or low points and high coupon in this article points are interpreted as a device serving to separate borrowers with high prepayment probabilities from those with low prepayment probabilities borrowers and lenders are treated symmetrically both are risk neutral and both have complete and frictionless access to credit markets implying that borrowers can finance points if they wish except that borrowers prepayment speeds are private knowledge equilibria are derived both when borrowers cannot prepay voluntarily and when they can article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

the economic effects of constitutions replicating and extending persson and tabellini persson and tabellini the economic effects of constitutions the mit press cambridge 2003 show that presidential regimes and majoritarian election systems have important economic effects here the number of countries is expanded and more recent data is used in replicating and extending their analyses we find that the effect of presidential regimes vanishes almost entirely with regard to electoral systems the original results are largely confirmed majoritarian as opposed to proportional electoral systems lead to lower government expenditure lower levels of rent seeking but also lower output per worker the institutional details such as the proportion of candidates that are not elected on party lists and district size are particularly important

evidence on the benefits of alternative mortgage products alternative mortgage products have been identified by many as culprits in the financial crisis however because of their lower initial mortgage payments relative to loan amount they may be a valuable tool for households that expect higher and more certain future labor income and that wish to smooth consumption over the life cycle using u k household level panel data this paper provides evidence in support of this hypothesis and highlights other important benefits of alternative mortgages including portfolio diversification tax benefits and a reduction in the transaction costs incurred in housing transactions

mortgage default during the u s mortgage crisis this paper asks which theories of mortgage default are quantitatively consistent with observations in the united states during 2002 2010 theoretical models are simulated for the observed time series of aggregate house prices their predictions are then compared to actual default rates on prime fixed rate mortgages an out of sample test discriminates between estimated reduced forms of the two most prominent theories the test reveals that the doubletrigger hypothesis attributing mortgage default to the joint occurrence of negative equity and a life event like unemployment outperforms a frictionless option theoretic default model based on this finding a structural partialequilibrium model with liquidity constraints and idiosyncratic unemployment shocks is presented to provide micro foundations for the double trigger hypothesis in this model borrowers with negative equity are more likely to default when they are unemployed and have low liquid wealth the model explains most of the observed strong rise in mortgage default rates a policy implication of the model is that subsidizing homeowners can mitigate a mortgage crisis at a lower cost than bailing out lenders

the inefficiency of refinancing why prepayment penalties are good for risky borrowers abstract this paper provides a theoretical analysis of the efficiency of prepayment penalties in a dynamic competitive lending model with risky borrowers and costly default when considering improvements in the borrower s creditworthiness as one of the reasons for refinancing mortgages we show that refinancing penalties can be welfare improving and that they can be particularly beneficial to riskier borrowers in the form of lower mortgage rates reduced defaults and increased availability of credit thus a high concentration of prepayment penalties among the riskiest borrowers can be an outcome of efficient equilibrium in a mortgage market we also provide empirical evidence that is consistent with the key predictions of our model

house price expectations alternative mortgage products and default rapid house price depreciation and rising unemployment were the main drivers of the huge increase in mortgage default during the downturn years of 2007 to 2010 however mortgage default was also partly driven by an increased reliance on alternative mortgage products such as pay option arms and interest only mortgages which allow the borrower to defer principal amortization the goal of this paper is to better understand the forces that spurred use of alternative mortgages during the housing boom and the resulting impact on default patterns relying on a unifying conceptual framework to guide the empirical work the conceptual framework allows borrowers to choose the extent of mortgage backloading the postponement of loan repayment through various mechanisms that constitutes a main feature of alternative mortgages the model shows that when future house price expectations become more favorable reducing default concerns mortgage choices shift toward alternative contracts this prediction is confirmed by empirical evidence showing that an increase in past house price appreciation which captures more favorable expectations for the future raises the market share of alternative mortgages in addition using a proportional hazard default model the paper tests the fundamental presumption that backloaded mortgages are more likely to default finding support for this view the views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the federal reserve bank of philadelphia or the federal reserve system this paper is available free of charge at http www philadelphiafed org research anddata publications working papers

a model of mortgage default in this paper we solve a dynamic model of households mortgage decisions incorporating labor income house price inflation and interest rate risk using a zero profit condition for mortgage lenders we solve for equilibrium mortgage rates given borrower characteristics and optimal decisions the model quantifies the effects of adjustable versus fixed mortgage rates loan to value ratios and mortgage affordability measures on mortgage premia and default mortgage selection by heterogeneous borrowers helps explain the higher default rates on adjustable rate mortgages during the recent u s housing downturn and the variation in mortgage premia with the level of interest rates

stochastic house appreciation and optimal mortgage lending w e characterize the optimal mortgage contract in a continuous time setting with stochastic growth in house price and income costly foreclosure and a risky borrower who requires incentives to repay his debt we show that many features of subprime loans can be consistent with properties of the optimal contract and that when house prices decline mortgage modification can create value for borrowers and lenders our model provides a number of empirical predictions that relate the features of mortgage contracts originated in a housing boom and the extent of their modification in a slump to location and borrowers characteristics jel g20 g21 g33

reverse mortgage loans a quantitative analysis reverse mortgage loans rmls allow older homeowners to borrow against housing wealth without moving despite rapid growth in this market only 1 9 of eligible homeowners had rmls in 2013 in this paper we analyze reverse mortgages in a calibrated life cycle model of retirement the average welfare gain from rmls is 252 per homeowner and 1 770 per rml borrower bequest motives uncertainty about health and expenses and loan costs account for low demand according to the model the great recession s impact differs across age income and wealth distributions with a threefold increase in rml demand for lowest income and oldest households

mortgages and monetary policy mortgages are long term nominal loans under incomplete asset markets monetary policy is shown to affect housing investment and the economy through the cost of new mortgage borrowing and the value of payments on outstanding debt these channels distinct from traditional transmission of monetary policy are evaluated within a general equilibrium model persistent monetary policy shocks resembling the level factor in the nominal yield curve have larger effects than transitory shocks manifesting themselves as long short spread the transmission is stronger under adjustable than fixed rate mortgages higher persistent inflation benefits homeowners under frms but hurts them under arms

mortgage choice in the euro area macroeconomic determinants and the effect of monetary policy on debt burdens this paper provides novel evidence on the role of the macroeconomic environment for households choice between fixed interest rate and adjustable interest rate mortgages arms in the euro area we find that relatively more arms are taken out when economic growth is strong the interest rate spread is high or unemployment shows low volatility a simulation exercise shows that a reduction in mortgage rates as witnessed during the monetary easing in the course of the global financial crisis produces a substantial decline in debt burdens among mortgage holding households especially in countries where households have higher debt burdens and a larger share of arms

the term structure of interest rates with housing abstract this paper develops a general equilibrium model to study the link between the amount of capital invested in housing assets and the term structure of interest rates in the model the production of housing assets is irreversible and housing assets can be used as collateral for borrowing funds agents decisions about consumption and investments in housing and non housing assets generate a time varying market price of risk that drives the dynamics of the term structure the calibration to u s data using the simulated method of moments technique captures the dynamics of consumption and the short and long term interest rates

an analysis of mortgage contracting prepayment penalties and the due on sale clause the due on sale clause contained in most conventional home mortgage contracts is equivalent to a prepayment penalty equal to the difference between the face value and market value of the loan we analyze a bilateral game with asymmetric information and show that the bank demands the full penalty unless the market value of the loan is sufficiently low in that case the bank demands a prepayment penalty which is independent of the market value of the loan in order to induce additional prepayments we also demonstrate by a risk sharing argument that the due on sale clause is optimal in some settings even though it eliminates some beneficial home sales almost all conventional fixed rate home mortgage contracts written in the last decade contain a due on sale clause which gives the lender the contractual right to declare the total indebtedness due immediately if the mortgaged property is transferred as mortgage rates rise lending institutions suffer capital losses on fixed rate mortgage loans while borrowers earn capital gains equal to the difference between the face value and market value of their loans the due onsale clause gives the lending institution the right to demand the borrower s capital gain as a prepayment penalty in order to increase the probability of prepayment it can be optimal for the bank to accept a partial settlement in this paper we analyze the bank s strategy for setting the prepayment penalty it demands under the due on sale clause and examine the optimality of the clause the model we develop also applies to other types of prepayment penalties i e loan covenants which require payment of a premium over market value in order to extinguish

housing leverage and stability in the wider economy this paper explores ways in which volatility in the housing market that has damaging impacts on the financial system and the wider economy can be reduced alternatives to standard debt contracts to finance house purchase are considered a form of equity loan where repayments are linked to the value of the house have major advantages in terms of risk reduction the way in which such loans can be structured is analyzed

mortgage choice as a natural field experiment on choice under risk data on approximately 280 000 borrowers from the uk survey of mortgage lenders are used to model choices between variable and fixed rate mortgages the choice is assumed to depend on three factors risk attitude interest rate expectations and individual discount rate the ordered probit model is used for estimation while taking account of a number of econometric issues including missing counterfactuals selectivity and endogeneity a large number of strong effects are found including higher income borrowers are less risk averse and have a lower discount rate and risk aversion rises with the amount borrowed providing evidence of increasing relative risk aversion

the effect of price on electricity contract choice i explore how households switch between fixed price and variable price electricity contracts in response to variations in price and temperature conditional on previous contract choice using panel

mortgage risks debt literacy and financial advice a limited understanding of mortgage contracts and the risks involved may have contributed to the outbreak of the 2007 2008 financial crisis we developed a special questionnaire relating mortgage loan decisions to financial knowledge and financial advice our results demonstrate that homeowners appear to be well aware of mortgage risks large loans relative to home value are perceived as riskier as are loans with large mortgage payments relative to income and loans linked to investment vehicles homeowners with riskier mortgages indicated that they could encounter financial problems should house prices or their income decline homeowners with relatively low debt literacy are more likely to take out traditional mortgages with principal repayments over the maturity of the loan riskier mortgages are more prevalent among homeowners with a better understanding of loan contracts financially less sophisticated homeowners consulting mortgage brokers too hold riskier mortgages

fixed rate mortgages labor markets and efficiency the paper studies the effects of mortgage choices between fixed rate mortgages frms and adjustable rate mortgages arms on labor market efficiency frms provide insurance for risk averse borrowers in the sense that they pay the same rate over time and are not subject to uncertain spot market rates frms however discourage borrowers from moving to other regions despite better employment opportunities as they terminate the frm contracts in order to move and their new loan interests may be higher as frm borrowers do not move to other regions due to the interest lock ins entrepreneurs in other regions lose the potential surpluses from productive matches that would have occurred between borrowers workers and entrepreneurs borrowers ignore this negative externality they impose on the entrepreneurs when choosing their mortgages and too many borrowers choose frms relative to the efficient level if frms are eliminated and arm insurance that protects arm borrowers against uncertain adjustable interest rates is created it will improve efficiency the paper also assesses quantitatively the welfare effects of eliminating frms and providing arm insurance

the rise and fall of the arm an econometric analysis of mortgage choice this paper estimates an empirical model of the choice between adjustable and fixe d rate mortgages using a large national database compiled by the nat ional association of realtors the explanatory variables in the probi t choice equation include borrower characteristics regional dummies the frm rate and the frm arm rate differential since the intrerest rate on the mortgage not chosen is unobserved this rate must be est imated in a way that eliminates selectivity bias simulation of the e stimated choice equation provides insight into the origin of the arm revolution copyright 1988 by mit press

life cycle asset allocation with annuity markets abstract this paper derives the optimal consumption and portfolio choice pattern over the life cycle for households facing uninsurable labor income risk ruin risk stochastic capital markets and uncertain lifetime our model posits a dynamic utility maximizer with crra and epstein zin preferences who has access to liquid stocks bonds and illiquid life annuities we show that a considerable fraction of wealth is gradually annuitized until retirement and beyond to skim the mortality credit the remaining liquid wealth is mainly invested in stocks to compensate for riskless investment in life annuities the model allows us to assess the economic importance of common explanations for the empirically low annuity demand by analyzing participations rates annuitization fractions and welfare effects

optimal mortgage design this article studies optimal mortgage design in a continuous time setting with volatile and privately observable income costly foreclosure and a stochastic market interest rate we show that the features of the optimal mortgage are consistent with an option adjustable rate mortgage option arm under the optimal contract the borrower is given discretion of how much to repay until his balance reaches a certain limit the default rates and interest rate payment on the mortgage correlate positively with the market interest rate gains from using the optimal contract relative to simpler mortgages are the biggest for those who face more income variability buy pricey houses given their income level or make little or no down payment our model thus may help to explain a high concentration of option arms among riskier borrowers jel g20 g21 g33

what calls to arms international evidence on interest rates and the choice of adjustable rate mortgages the form of the interest rate on newly issued mortgages namely whether they are adjustable rate mortgages arms or fixed rate mortgages frms varies considerably both across countries and over time we attempt to uncover the sources of this variation in the arm share of arms issued relative to total mortgage issuance our emphasis is on drawing inferences about how household mortgage choice is affected by households reactions to movements in interest rates we complement newly assembled panel data from nine countries on the arm share and mortgage interest rates with a panel instrumental variables approach in which we test exclusion restrictions that are implied by alternative explanations for variation in the arm share we uncover strong evidence in favour of current cost minimization as the proximate driver of household mortgage choice

adverse selection in a model of real estate lending we provide a rationale for the presence of points in mortgage loan contracts our analysis builds on two key features first insurance markets are unavailable for labor income second the due on sale clause allows banks to offer loan contracts which partially insure against fluctuations in labor income if explicit prepayment penalties are prohibited by law points serve effectively as prepayment penalties we also examine environments where such penalties are not prohibited and show that points will be used if interest rates cannot depend on the size of the loan conventional home mortgage contracts contain a vast array of contingent clauses the most controversial of these is the due on sale clause that gives the lender the contractual right to declare the loan fully payable if all or part of the mortgaged property is sold dunn and spatt 1985 argue that the due on sale clause can provide insurance to the borrower they consider an environment where individuals face uninsurable risk in their income if incomes are high when borrowers move they will prefer a contract which imposes a prepayment penalty when they sell their property in return for a subsidy perhaps in the form of lower interest rates when they stay dunn and spatt characterize the optimal contract when the income of borrowers is unobservable to the lender however all borrowers are ex ante identical in this paper we examine a market where individuals differ in the riskiness of their potential gains from selling their property if this information is private to the borrower the kind of insurance arrangement described above must be modified to deal with the obvious selection problems that arise any lender must therefore ensure that any insurance contract offered to individuals with riskier income streams does not offer so much insurance at such a favorable price that individuals with less risky income also accept the same contract the classic analysis of this type of problem is by rothschild and stiglitz 1976 and our analysis follows theirs in order to focus attention on the nature of the adverse selection problem we assume two types of individuals both types have the same expected income stream for simplicity we assume that type i individuals do not

financial innovation and european housing and mortgage markets in this paper we assess the recent history of house prices and of mortgage lending across europe we develop a simple economic framework to estimate the likely contributions of fundamental factors such as changes in real incomes and population growth to house price appreciation we also try to quantify how much of price rises might have been driven by rising expectations of future capital gains we estimate that this might have played a significant role in several countries including spain sweden belgium and the uk we then consider what different types of mortgage arrangement might become attractive in a world of higher house prices analysing types of indexed mortgage that have advantages where prices are higher relative to incomes and where house prices may be volatile and cannot be assumed to carry on rising

labor income housing prices and homeownership abstract this paper tests the intuition that households whose incomes covary relatively strongly with housing prices should own relatively little housing among us households a one standard deviation in covariance between income and home prices is associated with a decrease of approximately 7500 in the value of owner occupied housing this result arises in the presence of controls for the level and distribution of home prices the generally positive correlations between income and home prices suggests that households enter financial markets with a greater exposure to risk than is typically modeled

credit booms and lending standards evidence from the subprime mortgage market this paper links the u s subprime mortgage crisis to demand side factors that contributed to the rapid expansion of the u s mortgage market we show that denial rates were relatively lower in areas that experienced faster credit demand growth and that lenders in these high growth areas attached less weight to applicants loan to income ratios the results are robust to controlling for supply side factors including house price appreciation mortgage securitization and other economic fundamentals and to several robustness tests controlling for endogeneity the results are consistent with the notion that a relaxation of lending standards triggered by an increased demand for loans contributed to the boom and the ensuing crisis together with other supply side explanations these findings shed new light on the relationship between credit booms and financial instability

incentives information and efficiency in the uk mortgage market this paper analyses the choices made by households in the uk about mortgages it considers whether there might be forms of market failure that prevent the structure of mortgage debt better reflecting the underlying preferences of households uk households lie at one end of a spectrum of the degree of uncertainty over the nominal payments due on mortgage debt there are several different hypotheses for the type of mortgages households choose some are consistent with an efficient market others not the paper looks at alternative explanations for the behaviour of uk households and assesses which are consistent with the evidence when comparing the uk mortgage market with those of other developed economies two striking facts stand out first the stock of mortgage debt in the uk is large both absolutely and relative to the size of the economy second an unusually high proportion of that mortgage debt is at interest rates that are either variable or will shortly become variable figure 1 shows that at the end of 2002 the stock of mortgage debt in the uk was close to 70 of gdp at that time only denmark and the netherlands amongst developed economies had a larger stock of mortgage debt relative to gdp by the middle of 2004 the uk had overtaken denmark figure 2 shows that at the end of 2003 around 75 of the stock of mortgage debt was at variable interest rates although 25 of the stock was at fixed rate the overwhelming proportion of fixed rate mortgages have the interest rate set only for a few years figure 3 which focuses on the flow of new mortgage lending shows that although there have been times in recent years when 30 40 of the flow of new mortgage lending has been at a fixed rate no more than 4 of new mortgages have had the rate set for more than five years figure 4 shows that the uk is at one end of a spectrum in terms of the degree to which interest rates on mortgages are variable all of this means that the uk household sector faces a degree of uncertainty about the nominal profile of mortgage payments which is significantly greater than in almost any other country none of these observations in themselves show that there are failures in the structure of the uk mortgage market but they do prompt a series of fundamental economic questions why is it that uk households seem far more willing to take on uncertainty about the profile of repayments on mortgages than in other countries what might the contribution of the dominance of variable rate mortgages have been to the unusually though not uniquely high degree of variability in house prices in the uk are uk households taking account of the risk and return characteristics of various types of mortgage contracts in making choices what are the incentives of lenders and financial advisers in the uk mortgage market are there problems in the capital markets that prevent the

housing dynamics over the business cycle housing dynamics over the business cycle over the u s business cycle fluctuations in residential investment are well known to systematically lead gdp these dynamics are documented here to be specific to the u s and canada in other developed economies residential investment is broadly coincident with gdp nonresidential investment has the opposite dynamics being coincident with or lagging gdp these observations are in sharp contrast with the properties of nearly all business cycle models with disaggregated investment including mortgages and interest rate dynamics aligns the theory more closely with u s observations longer time to build in housing construction makes residential investment coincident with output

the tradeoff between mortgage prepayments and tax deferred retirement savings abstract many households face the tradeoff between paying an extra dollar off the remaining mortgage on their house and saving that extra dollar in tax deferred accounts tdas used for retirement we show that under certain conditions it becomes a tax arbitrage to reduce mortgage prepayments and to increase tda contributions because of the tax deductibility of mortgage interest and tax exemption of qualified retirement savings using data from the survey of consumer finances we document that a significant number of households that are accelerating their mortgage payments instead of saving in tdas forgo a profitable tax arbitrage opportunity finally we show empirically that this inefficient behavior is unlikely to be driven by liquidity or other financial constraints rather the observed behavior can be attributed to a certain extent to the reluctance of many households to participate in financial markets as either lenders or borrowers

spatial lock in do falling house prices constrain residential mobility abstract falling house prices have caused numerous homeowners to suffer capital losses those with little home equity may be prevented from moving because of imperfections in housing finance markets the proceeds from the sale of their home may be insufficient to repay their mortgage and provide a down payment on a new home a data set of mortgages is used to examine the magnitude of these constraints estimates show that average mobility would have been 24 higher after 3 years had house prices not declined and after 4 years it would have been 33 higher among those with high initial loan to value ratios the differences are even greater

can an islamic model of housing finance cooperative elevate the economic status of the underprivileged abstract a formal home loan is onerous to subprime borrowers in efficient markets this can deter home ownership for financially strapped individuals leading to a market failure this paper proposes a special form of cooperative mortgage financing practiced in oman to overcome this market failure we integrate the literature of mortgage design with that of informal savings schemes i e roscas ascras to illustrate that this mode of financing dissipates credit risk better than the

deleveraging and mortgage curtailment abstract using monthly loan level data individual partial prepayments curtailments from january 2001 to june 2011 are observed for mortgages in twenty metropolitan statistical areas contrary to some earlier assertions american homeowners now frequently commit funds towards their mortgage payments in excess of the amount due over 30 of loans outstanding have made at least one curtailment payment after controlling for borrower and loan level variables we show that the latent propensity to curtail has steadily risen from 2003 to 2006 and remains at elevated levels therefore curtailment provides an example of consumer deleveraging behavior that began prior to the great recession

regional differences in mortgage demand and mortgage instrument choice in the uk koblyakova a hutchison n and tiwari p regional differences in mortgage demand and mortgage instrument choice in the uk regional studies this paper presents empirical evidence of regional variations in mortgage choice decisions within the uk s mortgage sector utilizing british household panel survey bhps data for the years 2001 2007 and 2008 the paper suggests that a household s decision to choose a variable rate mortgage is more likely to occur in areas with lower incomes and affordability rates such as northern england scotland and wales since variable rate mortgages are more sensitive to income and monetary policy shocks the disproportional distribution of variable contracts within the mortgage sector may have a differential impact on the regions

choosing between fixed and adjustable rate mortgages note introduction in recent years mortgage borrowers have been given a wide variety of financing methods from which to choose e g guttentag 1983 barnett and mckenzie 1984 examples include assumptions adjustable rates shared appreciation growing equity and numerous others by far the dominant two have been the standard fixed rate and the adjustable rate mortgage beginning with regulation changes in 1979 adjustable rate mortgage lending at first was fairly restricted but with the major deregulation change in 1981 the types of adjustable rate mortgages have proliferated 2 now lenders have the flexibility to use numerous indexes including inflation and disposable income indexes make interest rate changes independent of payment changes and allow negative amortization the purpose of this paper is to examine the choice between fixed and adjustable rate mortgages 3 two views have dominated the theoretical literature one that emphasizes the irrelevance of borrower characteristics in the mortgage choice decision given the prices and terms of the contract and one that focuses on the potential impact of borrower characteristics assuming asymmetric information 4 this paper is the first to examine empirically the impact of pricing and borrower characteristics on the choice of mortgage contract

houses as atms mortgage refinancing and macroeconomic uncertainty we estimate a structural model of household liquidity management in the presence of long term mortgages households face counter cyclical idiosyncratic labor income uncertainty and borrowing constraints which aect optimal choices of leverage precautionary saving in liquid assets and illiquid home equity debt repayment mortgage renancing and default taking the observed historical path of house prices aggregate

supply driven mortgage choice variable mortgage contracts dominate the uk mortgage market the dominance of the variable rate mortgage contracts has important consequences for the transmission mechanism of monetary policy decisions and systemic risks this raises an obvious concern that a mortgage market such as that in the uk where the major proportion of mortgage debt is either at a variable or fixed for less than two years rate is vulnerable to alterations in the interest rate regime theoretically mortgage choice is determined by demand and supply factors so far most of the existing literature has focused on the demand side perspective and what is limited is consideration of supply side factors in empirical investigation on mortgage choice decisions this paper uniquely explores whether supply side factors may partially explain observed ex post mortgage type decisions empirical results detect that lenders profit motives and mortgage funding pricing issues may have assisted in preferences toward variable rate contracts sec

consumption and risk sharing over the life cycle a striking feature of u s data on income and consumption is that inequality increases with age this paper asks if individual specific earnings risk can provide a coherent explanation we find that it can we construct an overlapping generations general equilibrium model in which households face uninsurable earnings shocks over the course of their lifetimes earnings inequality is exogenous and is calibrated to match data from the u s panel study on income dynamics consumption inequality is endogenous and matches well data from the u s consumer expenditure survey the total risk households face is decomposed into that realized before entering the labor market and that realized throughout the working years in welfare terms the latter is found to be more important than the former

consumer financial protection the recent financial crisis has led many to question how well businesses deliver services and how well regulatory institutions address problems in consumer financial markets this paper discusses consumer financial regulation emphasizing the full range of arguments for regulation that derive from market failure and from limited consumer rationality in financial decision making we present three case studies of mortgage markets payday lending and financing retirement consumption to illustrate the need for and limits of regulation we argue that if regulation is to be beneficial it must be tailored to specific problems and must be accompanied by research to measure the effectiveness of regulatory interventions

alternative mortgage instruments the tilt problem and consumer welfare mortgage instrument in the united states for the last 50 years and for much of this period it has performed well however during periods of high and volatile rates of inflation the sfpm suffers from severe weaknesses 1 foremost among these problems from the standpoint of the borrower is the tilt in the stream of real mortgage payments toward the initial years of the mortgage for consumers unconstrained by capital market imperfections this tilt is unimportant however a consumer is typically unable to borrow against expected higher future income or against the nominal capital gains that accrue to the owner of a house over the life of the mortgage in addition common practices of mortgage lenders often limit mortgage payments to some fraction of income at the time of purchase together these liquidity constraints create a mismatch between the time se quence of mortgage payments and income a mismatch that reduces the number of borrowers who qualify for financing and that limits the value of the house purchased by those who do obtain financing 2 in an attempt to reduce the problems created by this mismatch a variety of alternative mortgage instruments amis has been suggested three of the most important are the graduated payment mortgage gpm the shared appreciation mortgage sam and the price level adjusted mortgage plam 3 with the gpm mortgage payments rise at some specified rate during a portion of the mortgage life the sam enables the lender to share in the appreciation of the university of colorado boulder and syracuse university respectively this paper was writ ten while the first author was at syracuse university funding for the research was shared by the office of the comptroller of the currency the federal horne loan bank board and the department of housing and urban development mary anne beeman served as research assistant and the manu

the impact of deregulation and financial innovation on consumers the case of the mortgage market we develop a technique to assess the impact of changes in mortgage markets on house holds exploiting an implication of the permanent income hypothesis the higher a household s expected future income the higher its desired consumption ceteris paribus with perfect credit markets desired consumption matches actual consump tion and current spending forecasts future income because credit market imperfec tions mute this effect the extent to which house spending predicts future income measures the imperfectness of mortgage markets using micro data we find that since the early 1980s mortgage markets have become less imperfect in this sense and securitization has played an important role the u s mortgage market has experienced phenomenal change over the last 35 years gone are the days when most households get a cookie cutter 30 year fixed rate level payment mortgage from a savings and loan that takes deposits at 3 and lends at 6 also gone are the days when the typical lender holds that mortgage on its books until the maturity of the loan today consumers choose from an extensive menu of mortgages offering flexibility along almost every dimension furthermore most lenders hold the mortgage for only a short time typically they sell the mortgage on the secondary market many researchers have argued that this transformation has enhanced effi ciency by integrating the mortgage market with the broader financial markets however there has been comparatively little research investigating how or even whether the transformation of mortgage markets has directly affected

why do retired workers claim their social security benefits so early a potential explanation based on the cumulative prospect theory abstractsocial security provides longevity insurance for older americans according to expected utility theory models rational households who are not liquidity constrained should delay claiming th

asymmetric information collateral and moral hazard in a credit market characterized by a priori asymmetric information collateral not only can identify credit applicants but also can result in moral hazard involving the borrower s use of pledged assets the borrower s other alternatives are to apply for unsecured bank credit and be priced as average or to acquire financing by selling an asset and subsequently renting it for continued use the optimal secured loan contract for higher quality firms is shown to involve overcollateralization there is underinvestment relative to first best in maintenance of the pledged assets but overinvestment relative to the level that would be chosen without bank monitoring self financing and unsecured credit are chosen by the intermediate and lowest quality groups respectively

restoring rational choice the challenge of consumer financial regulation abstract this lecture considers the case for consumer financial regulation in an environment where many households lack the knowledge to manage their financial affairs effectively the lecture argu

what does the term structure tell us about future inflation abstract this empirical analysis indicates that for maturities of six months or less the term structure of nominal interest rates provides almost no information about the future path of inflation but does provide information about the term structure of real interest rates however as maturities lengthen to nine and twelve months the nominal term structure begins to contain information about future inflation but ceases to provide information about the real term structure these results are explained by differences in the relative variability of expected future inflation changes and real term structure slopes at different points in the term structure

the impact of investment behaviour for individual welfare the industrialized world has experienced a demographic shift that is straining public pension systems employer sponsored pension plans change from defined benefit to defined contribution more emphasis is put on individually managed retirement funds one concern with this movement is the potential negative effect on individual welfare if households investment behaviour is suboptimal using micro level us data we compare the optimal utility computed using a lifecycle model with the actual utility as reflected in empirical asset allocation choices average estimated welfare costs are below 3 of households endowment assets and human capital yet specific population groups experience higher welfare costs

house prices and risk sharing homeowners in the panel study of income dynamics are able to maintain a high level of consumption following job loss or disability in periods of rising local house prices while the consumption drop for homeowners who lose their job in times of lower house prices is substantial these results are consistent with homeowners being able to access wealth gains when housing appreciates as witnessed by their ability to smooth consumption more than renters a calibrated model of endogenous homeownership and consumption is able to reproduce the patterns in the data quite well and provides an interpretation of the empirical results

fixed rate or index linked mortgages from the borrower s point of view a note when will borrowers choose fixed rate mortgages and when will they prefer index linked mortgages baesel and biger bb 1 proposed a model that answers this question according to the bb model a borrower s preference depends on the difference in interest rates between the fixed and index linked mortgages and on the covariance between the borrower s labor income and the rate of inflation the purpose of this note is to propose a more complete model of borrower preferences the novelty of the model lies in the inclusion of the value of the house net of mortgage obligation in the terminal wealth of the borrower this inclusion leads to differences between this model and the bb model in the identification of the cases where borrowers will prefer fixed or index linked mortgages

housing over time and over the life cycle a structural estimation we estimate a structural model of optimal life cycle housing and nonhousing con sumption in the presence of labor income and house price uncertainties the model postulates constant elasticity of substitution between housing service and nonhousing consumption and explicitly incorporates a housing adjustment cost our estimationts the cross sectional and time series household wealth and housing proles from the panel study of income dynamics 1984 to 2005 reasonably well and suggests an intratemporal elasticity of substitution between housing and nonhousing consumption of 0 487 the low elasticity estimate is largely driven by moments conditional on state house prices and moments in the latter half of the sample period and is robust to different assumptions of housing adjustment cost we then conduct policy analyses in which we let house price and income take values as those observed between 2006 and 2011 we show that the responses depend importantly on the housing adjustment cost and the elasticity of sub stitution between housing and nonhousing consumption in particular compared with the benchmark the impact of the shocks on homeownership rates is reduced but the impact on nonhousing consumption is magnied when the house selling cost is sizable or when housing service and nonhousing consumption are highly substitutable