an investigation of the role of china s urban population on coal consumption abstract this paper investigates the causal relationship between urban population real gdp electricity production and coal consumption in china for the period 1971 2009 using a vector autoregression framework and a modified version of the granger 1969 causality test proposed by toda and yamamoto j econ 66 1995 225 the results suggest that there is causality running from gdp to coal consumption the variance decomposition analysis report that urban population and coal affect electricity production variability over the forecast period we also find that increasing urban population may negatively affect china s gdp over time policy measures aimed at influencing gdp could ultimately affect coal consumption

the relationship between energy consumption structure economic structure and energy intensity in china this paper investigates the long run equilibrium relationships temporal dynamic relationships and causal relationships between energy consumption structure economic structure and energy intensity in china time series variables over the periods from 1980 to 2006 are employed in empirical tests cointegration tests suggest that these three variables tend to move together in the long run in addition granger causality tests indicate that there is a unidirectional causality running from energy intensity to economic structure but not vice versa impulse response analysis provides reasonable evidences that one shock of the three variables will cause the periods of destabilized that followed however the impact of the energy consumption structure shock on energy intensity and the impact of the economic structure shock on energy consumption structure seem to be rather marginal the findings have significant implications from the point of view of energy conservation and economic development in order to decrease energy intensity chinese government must continue to reduce the proportion of coal in energy consumption increase the utilization efficiency of coal and promote the upgrade of economic structure furthermore a full analysis of factors that may relate to energy intensity e g energy consumption structure economic structure should be conducted before making energy policies

the long term consequences of resource based specialisation using geological variation in oil abundance in the southern us i examine the long term effects of resource based specialisation through economic channels in 1890 oil abundant counties were similar to other nearby counties but after oil was discovered they began to specialise in its production from 1940 90 oil abundance increased local employment per square kilometre especially in mining but also in manufacturing oil abundant counties had higher population growth higher per capita income and better infrastructure 2010 the author s the economic journal 2010 royal economic society

stochastic optimization applied to self financing portfolio does bequest matter the article studies stochastic optimization of an intertemporal consumption model to allocate financial assets between risky and risk free assets we use a stochastic optimization technique in which utility is maximized subject to a self financing portfolio constraint the papers in literature have estimated the errors of euler equations using data from financial markets it has been shown that it is sufficient to test the first order euler equation implied by the model however they all assume a constant consumption wealth ratio that constrains the boundary conditions hence influencing the coefficient of the risk premium the main contribution of our article is that we drop the assumption of a constant consumption wealth ratio we have an analytical solution using a utility maximization model with a stochastic self financing portfolio we introduce a terminal condition of wealth with and without bequests we also simulate the stochastic optimization with a self financing portfolio distinguishing risk

the big push natural resource booms and growth a simple application of big push reasoning suggests that natural resource booms can be important catalysts for development in poorer countries in this paper we present evidence from seven latin american countries that natural resource booms are sometimes accompa nied by declining per capita gdp we present a model with natural resources increasing returns in the spirit of big push models and expectations to clarify some of the reasons this may happen q 1999 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

china s energy consumption and sustainable development comparative evidence from gdp and genuine savings this paper employs the structural vector autoregressions framework and the generalized impulse response function to study the long term dynamic relation between china s energy consumption and sustainable economic growth in addition to the conventional economic indicators gdp growth rates genuine savings rates are particularly examined to indicate sustainable economic development results show that the high elasticity of energy consumption dramatically undermines the capacity of china s sustainability in terms of reducing genuine savings rates we also use variance decomposition to calculate relative variance contribution rates in order to identify the most important factor affecting gdp growth as well as genuine savings rates the analysis finds that clean and renewable energy increase the country s genuine savings significantly that is renewable energy consumption promotes sustainable development for both natural and economic societies however increase in traditional solid energy consumption is more likely to benefit only the growth of gdp

will the locals benefit the effect of wind power investments on rural wages abstract an important and poorly understood question when communities consider wind power investments is whether the local population will benefit financially i examine the effect of wind power investment on wages in rural counties in the us i combine quarterly panel data on wages with data on all wind power plant investments larger than 1 megawatt mw using a bayesian multilevel model estimated by mcmc i estimate a significant positive effect with a magnitude consistent with a 2 permanent increase in wages following an investment in a large wind farm of 400 mw however this effect has large geographic and socioeconomic variation counties with low employment tend to see little impact on wages from wind power potentially because slack in the labor market prevents wages from rising from a policy perspective these results are most relevant for local regulators and planners who seek to balance the benefits and costs of wind farms to the community this research indicates that wind farms can provide on average a modest boost to local wages with some areas seeing an out sized effect

does urbanization lead to more direct and indirect household carbon dioxide emissions evidence from china during 1996 2012 china is experiencing a stage of rapid urban development the energy consumption and related carbon dioxide emissions of households continue to increase this paper calculates direct and indirect carbon dioxide emissions of households based on the input output method in china from 1996 to 2012 the results reveal that there were more total carbon dioxide emissions from urban households than from rural households far more indirect emissions from urban households than from rural households slightly more direct emissions from urban households than from rural households and differences in direct carbon dioxide emissions from various fuels and in indirect emissions from various sectors between urban and rural households to examine the causal relationship between urbanization and the carbon dioxide emissions of households cointegration and granger causality tests are applied a unidirectional causal relation was found running from urbanization to both direct and indirect household carbon dioxide emissions and the direct and indirect carbon dioxide emissions of households would increase 2 9 and 1 1 respectively for every increase of one percent in urbanization we discuss the reasons of why the development of urbanization will lead to more household direct and indirect carbon dioxide emissions and suggest certain policy implications for urbanization and carbon dioxide emissions based on the results of this study

stock market returns in an emerging financial market turkish case study increased globalization in financial markets implies that the percentage of all shares under foreign ownership in domestic stock markets has been rising the recent speculative attacks on the foreign exchange market in november 2000 followed by february 2001 led turkey into a deep economic crisis real stock returns as an important indicator for a forthcoming or pending financial crisis using net capital flows have already been established in gazioglu 2003 in this article we explore the effects of capital inflows and outflows to real exchange rates and the real stock market returns before and after the financial crisis we investigate the relationship between real exchange rate real stock returns and capital flows we decompose the foreign flows into real assets and liabilities in order to investigate the possible long term effect of inflows and outflows empirical investigation shows that the long term relationship only appears between the real exchange rates and the real bank liabilities owned

oil prices and rural migration the dutch disease goes south abstract we construct a two period general equilibrium model to evaluate policies affecting agricultural migration and exports the model is applied to mexico for the period 1986 1987 to obtain certain qualitative policy conclusions related to the dutch disease brought about by oil price increases dutch disease phenomena can be brought about both as the result of real exchange rate changes as well as price changes caused by migration out of agriculture in the short run it may be possible to use fiscal policy such as value added subsidies to agriculture to at least partially negate the effects of an oil price increase on agricultural exports jel f31 f41

africa energy future alternative scenarios and their implications for sustainable development strategies abstract the long term forecasting of energy supply and demand is of prime importance in africa due to the steady increase in energy requirements the non availability of sufficient resources the high dependence on fossil fuels to meet these requirements and the global concerns over the energy induced environmental issues this paper is concerned with modelling possible future paths for africa s energy future and the related emissions future energy demand is forecasted based on socio economic variables such as gross domestic product income per capita population and urbanisation the long range energy alternative planning system leap modelling framework is employed to analyse and project energy demand and the related emissions under alternative strategies for the period of 2010 2040 results of scenarios including business as usual bau policies moderate energy access and accelerate energy access policies renewable energies promotion and energy efficiency policies and their environmental implications are provided the study provides some policy insights and identifies synergies and trade offs relating to the potential for energy policies to promote universal energy access enable a transition to renewable energy and mitigate climate change for a sustainable development

modeling and forecasting energy consumption in china implications for chinese energy demand and imports in 2020 the chinese economy is in a stage of energy transition from low efficiency solid fuels to oil gas and electric power from agriculture to urbanization and industrialization from heavy industry to lighter and high tech industry from low motorization to rapid growth of the motor vehicle population experts fear that continued rapid economic growth in china will translate into a massive need to expand imports of oil coal and gas we build an econometric model of the chinese energy economy based on the energy balance we use that model to forecast chinese energy consumption and imports to 2020 the study suggests that china will indeed require rapidly growing imports of oil coal and gas this growth is not so sensitive to the rate of economic growth as to increases in motorization it can be offset but probably only in small part by increasing domestic energy production or by improvements in the efficiency of use particularly in the production of electric power

does china factor matter an econometric analysis of international crude oil prices abstract whether china s crude oil imports are the culprit of oil price volatility these years has not been quantitatively confirmed therefore this paper empirically investigates the role of china s crude oil net imports in brent price changes from october 2005 to november 2013 based on an econometric analysis the results indicate that during the sample period china s crude oil imports do not significantly affect brent price changes no matter in the long run or short run therefore the blame for china s crude oil imports to cause the dramatic fluctuations of international oil price has no solid evidence also there exists significant uni directional causality running from the brent price to china s crude oil imports at the 5 level besides the response of the brent price to china s crude oil imports is found positive but slight and the brent price responds more significantly to us dollar exchange rate and oecd commercial inventory than to china s crude oil imports in the short run finally the contribution of china s crude oil imports to brent price movement is about 10 which is less than that of us dollar exchange rate but larger than that of indian crude oil imports or oecd commercial inventory

effects of urbanisation on energy consumption in china as a key issue in china s economic development urbanisation creates increasing pressure on energy supply and the natural environment thus a better understanding of the relationship between urbanisation and energy consumption is necessary for chinese decision makers at various levels to address energy security and sustainable economic and social development this paper empirically investigates the effects of china s urbanisation on residential energy consumption rec and production energy consumption pec through a time series analysis the results show that compared with rural areas urbanisation slows per capita rec growth because of the economy of scale and technological advantages associated with urbanisation but has greater promotional effects on the growth of rec and the improvement of rec structure the economic growth caused by urbanisation most significantly contributes to an increase in pec whereas technological advancement was found to reduce the scale of pec except from 2001 to 2005 finally the structural effect of the energy supply increased rather than decreased china s pec and the effect of industrial structure adjustment on pec was found to be insignificant

solow meets leontief economic growth and energy consumption abstract this paper proposes a methodology that integrates a growth model with an input output model to analyze the impacts of economic growth on the consumption of energy the integration between the models is carried out by calibrating the growth module which incorporates energetic inputs renewable and nonrenewable in the production function and implementing shocks by the supply side capital labor renewable and nonrenewable energy in the input output model this allows us to verify the pattern of energy consumption for each sector in the input output matrix we apply this methodology to study the energy consumption of eleven economic sectors in brazil using data from the brazilian national accounts and input output matrix ibge and the national energy report ben we conduct experiments involving changes in technological progress growth rate extraction and regeneration rates of both renewable and nonrenewable resources and population growth to analyze the impact of changes in the parameters of the model on the sectoral output growth rate and consequently on the consumption of energy in each economic sector

energy models for demand forecasting a review abstract energy is vital for sustainable development of any nation be it social economic or environment in the past decade energy consumption has increased exponentially globally energy management is crucial for the future economic prosperity and environmental security energy is linked to industrial production agricultural output health access to water population education quality of life etc energy demand management is required for proper allocation of the available resources during the last decade several new techniques are being used for energy demand management to accurately predict the future energy needs in this paper an attempt is made to review the various energy demand forecasting models traditional methods such as time series regression econometric arima as well as soft computing techniques such as fuzzy logic genetic algorithm and neural networks are being extensively used for demand side management support vector regression ant colony and particle swarm optimization are new techniques being adopted for energy demand forecasting bottom up models such as markal and leap are also being used at the national and regional level for energy demand management

rural residential energy transition and energy consumption intensity in china abstract this paper examines the impact of residential energy transition on residential energy consumption per capita recpc and identifies the underlying drivers in rural china based on province level panel data for years 1991 2014 in rural china it is shown that energy transition from traditional biomass energy tbe to traditional commercial energy tce significantly decreases recpc while energy transition from tbe or tce to advanced commercial energy ace significantly increases recpc as is revealed by the energy stacking model per capita income has a significantly negative impact on recpc and the impact of lagged recpc is opposite due to the regulation of energy price there exists price distortion in china s rural energy market and the price mechanism functions poorly besides factors including juvenile dependency ratio and education level significantly reduce recpc therefore it is vital to integrate rural energy into national energy strategic system facilitate energy transition process and introduce the market system reform of rural energy and continue to improve the education level of rural residents in rural china

contributions to financial crisis research an assessment of the literature in social science citation index journals from 1990 to 2008 research in the field of financial crisis has generated a considerable amount of literature in the past yet there has neither been any study to assess the contributions to the literature made by individuals or institutions nor any to measure the impact of the articles and researchers this study represents an attempt to 1 investigate the major journals in publishing financial crisis research 2 assess the contributions of individual researchers and institutions using the credited contribution approach and 3 measure the impact of individual publications and individual researchers on the financial crisis literature through citation analysis based on the publications in social science citation index ssci journals from 1990 to 2008 the findings provide a useful benchmark for assessing individual and institutional research productivity and trends for future research and venues for publications are identified

the energy gdp relationship in developing countries empirical evidence and stability tests abstract the elasticity of energy consumption with respect to gdp is an important element in projecting energy needs in economic development this study uses cross section and pooled cross section time series data to find that the elasticity of energy consumption with respect to gdp in developing countries is in the neighbourhood of 1 35 and significantly above one over the period covered 1970 to 1976 the relationships appear to have remained stable there are significant differences between areas of the world but the differences in the elasticities between different continents are not large

the economic impact of the coal boom and bust in this paper we examine the impact of the coal boom in the 1970s and the subsequent coal bust in the 1980s on local labour markets in kentucky ohio pennsylvania and west virginia we address two main questions in our analysis how were non mining sectors affected by the shocks to the mining sector how did these effects differ between sectors producing local goods and those producing traded goods we find evidence of modest employment spillovers into sectors with locally traded goods but not into sectors with nationally traded goods

impulse response analysis of cointegrated systems abstract impulse response or dynamic multiplier analysis of vector autoregressive systems with cointegrated variables is considered the asymptotic distribution of the responses estimated with johansen s 1988 maximum likelihood procedure is derived the results are illustrated with an analysis of a west german money demand system the investigation shows that a direct interpretation of the cointegration relations may be difficult or misleading thereby the virtue of impulse response analysis for applied work is illustrated

dutch disease economics and oil syndrome an empirical study abstract this paper integrates the existing dutch disease models of an oil boom into a reduced form three sector model and estimates it for five developing oil exporting countries having significant agricultural and manufacturing sectors time series annual data for the period 1966 1986 are used for algeria ecuador indonesia nigeria and venezuela their output composition is altered by an increase in their oil revenues the spending effect and in the world price of manufactured goods relative to agricultural products the world price effect both effects expand the manufacturing sectors of these countries and contract their agricultural sectors the spending effect expands their nontraded sectors whereas the world price effect may expand or contract them the opposite results are implied for the oil collapse of the 1980s

institutions and the resource curse countries rich in natural resources constitute both growth losers and growth winners we claim that the main reason for these diverging experiences is differences in the quality of institutions more natural resources push aggregate income down when institutions are grabber friendly while more resources raise income when institutions are producer friendly we test this theory building on sachs and warner s influential works on the resource curse our main hypothesis that institutions are decisive for the resource curse is confirmed our results contrast the claims of sachs and warner that institutions do not play a role

booming sector and de industrialisation in a small open economy this paper presents a theoretical analysis of the dutch disease the phenomenon whereby a boom in one traded goods sector squeezes porfitability in other traded goods sectors both by directly bi

resource abundance and economic growth in the united states abstract it is a common assumption that regions within the same country converge to approximately the same steady state income levels the so called absolute convergence hypothesis focuses on initial income levels to account for the variability in income growth among regions empirical data seem to support the absolute convergence hypothesis for us states but the data also show that natural resource abundance is a significant negative determinant of growth we find that natural resource abundance decreases investment schooling openness and r d expenditure and increases corruption and we show that these effects can fully explain the negative effect of natural resource abundance on growth

the effects of a natural gas boom on employment and income in colorado texas and wyoming improvements in technology have made it profitable to tap unconventional gas reservoirs in relatively impermeable shale and sandstone deposits which are spread throughout the u s mostly in rural areas proponents of gas drilling point to the activity s local economic benefits yet no empirical studies have systematically documented the magnitude or distribution of economic gains i estimate these gains for counties in colorado texas and wyoming three states where natural gas production expanded substantially since the late 1990s i find that a large increase in the value of gas production caused modest increases in employment wage and salary income and median household income the results suggest that each million dollars in gas production created 2 35 jobs in the county of production which led to an annualized increase in employment that was 1 5 of the pre boom level for the average gas boom county comparisons show that ex ante estimates of the number of jobs created by developing the fayetteville and marcellus shale gas formations may have been too large

local labor market impacts of energy boom bust boom in western canada abstract the impacts of energy price boom and bust are analyzed through the differential growth in employment and earnings between local labor markets with and without energy resources in western canada the estimated differentials attributed to the boom induced labor demand shocks show significant direct and indirect impacts on the earnings and employment within the energy extraction and other non energy local sectors respectively the local job multipliers indicate that job creation within the energy extraction sector leads to modest job creation within the non energy local sectors during boom periods for every ten energy extraction jobs created during a boom period approximately three construction jobs two retail jobs and four and a half service jobs are created

india s petroleum demand estimations and projections energy security is crucial for sustaining high economic growth in india this article empirically estimates india s long and short term demand relations for crude oil diesel and petrol gasoline using the ardl and ecm cointegration procedures and then uses them to project demand for these products up to 2025 under various scenarios of gdp growth and oil prices our projections show that over 2012 to 2025 demand is likely to increase by about 74 for crude oil 117 for diesel and 136 for petrol the annual growth rates being about 4 3 for crude oil 6 1 for diesel and 6 8 for petrol gasoline this article suggests that india needs to 1 take measures to improve efficiency in the use of petroleum products 2 try to enhance supplies such as through production sharing agreements by indian oil companies with other countries and 3 increase the use of nuclear hydro solar and other alternative energy sources as western european countries have done

the impact of fracking activities on oklahoma s housing prices a panel cointegration analysis abstract fracking drilling has opened a discussion on the role of technological developments in economies engaged in shale oil and gas formations oil and natural gas production opened new possibilities for employment benefits and housing prices decreases this paper explores for the first time the impact of fracking on housing prices across oklahoma s counties spanning the period 2000 2015 through panel methods the findings show a positive effect on housing prices while this positive effect gains statistical significance only over the period after the 2006 fracking boom the results survive a robustness check that explicitly considers distance and groundwater dependency issues

contagion in latin america definitions measurement and policy implications this paper analyzes bond and stock markets in latin america and uses these patterns to investigate whether contagion occurred in the 1990 s it defines shift contagion as a significant increase in cross market linkages after a shock to one country or region several coin toss examples and a simple model show that the standard tests for contagion are biased due to the presence of heteroscedasticity endogeneity and omitted variable bias recent empirical work which addresses these problems finds little evidence of shift contagion during a range of crisis periods instead this work argues that many countries are highly interdependent in all states of the world and the strong cross country linkages which exist after a crisis are not significantly different than those during more stable periods these findings have a number of implications for latin america

a meta analysis investigation of the direction of the energy gdp causal relationship implications for the growth degrowth dialogue abstract the complex relation between energy use and the economic process has long attracted attention issues such as the scarcity of energy resources energy theory of value degrowth and a growth approaches are closely related to the relationship between energy and development the present study traces the implications of the energy gdp causality dialogue for the context of the growth degrowth debate where the energy development link plays a decisive role in that context the present research investigates the possible existence of a fundamental macro direction of causality between energy use and economic growth that is not influenced by study specific characteristics and events towards this objective we perform a meta analysis that takes into account 158 studies on causality between energy and gdp covering the period 1978 2011 this is the first time to our knowledge that meta analysis has been applied to investigate the direction of the energy and gdp causal relationship the meta analysis results neither support the existence of a fundamental macro direction nor the so called neutrality hypothesis e gdp in the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth

channels of financial market contagion this study aims to fill a gap in the current literature by determining which channels of financial contagion are the most significant in transmitting crises between countries initial results using 2 contingency tables indicate that there is a significant relationship between contagion and the inflation rate and between contagion and financial liquidity a simultaneous comparison of the channels is then performed using a series of best subset logit regressions these suggest that a combination of high inflation and an emerging market classification form the most significant subset in increasing the probability of a contagious event

high real interest rates in the aftermath of disinflation is it a lack of credibility abstract high real interest rates have been observed in many countries for several months after the adoption of disinflation programs while they may reflect primarily a liquidity crunch high ex post real interest rates can also be explained in terms of an ex post error in inflation expectations that reflects a lack of credibility of the low inflation policy the latter hypothesis is tested using data for argentina israel and mexico during the implementation of the stabilization programs in the mid 1980s