do global risk perceptions influence world oil prices abstract this paper investigates the information transmission mechanism between world oil gold silver dollar euro exchange rate markets and volatility index vix accommodating for global risk perceptions we find that there is a unique long run equilibrium relationship where gold silver exchange rate and risk perceptions appear as long run forcing variables of world oil prices we uncover that global risk perceptions have a significantly suppressing effect on oil prices in the long run we also discover that global risk perceptions play a less important role in explaining the forecast error variance of oil prices in the short run than prices in the alternative investment markets our results also suggest that a shock in risk perceptions of global investors have a negative but short lived initial impact on oil prices

equity market implied volatility and energy prices a double threshold garch approach abstract this study investigates the role of vix in determining the returns and return volatilities of oil heating oil gasoline and natural gas a double threshold garch 1 1 methodology is utilized where the vix index is used as the threshold regime change indicator daily data from january 4 1999 to december 31 2013 are used a sub period analysis covering only the financial crisis period of january 2 2007 to december 31 2009 is also performed this study provides evidence that the level of equity market volatility i e vix that triggers a regime shift is commodity specific the results also indicate that the threshold vix values are time varying furthermore natural gas prices appear to withstand considerably more volatility in the equity market than do the prices of other energy commodities this relationship is even more pronounced during the financial crisis period approximately 70 and 50 of the estimated coefficients display asymmetric sensitivities due to regime changes during the entire period and the crisis period respectively the findings have practical implications as the underlying volatility of an asset plays a significant role in determining its associated activity in the futures markets

exchange rate volatility and u s monetary policy an arch application this paper examines the effect of shifts in u s monetary policy regimes on the stochastic process that generates foreign exchange rates to account for the observed behavior of the data record the author models nominal dollar exchange rates as univariate autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic processes he then tests the stability of this process across u s monetary policy regimes for four of the currencies in the sample accounting for regime shifts improves the fit of the model regime shifts also appear to diminish the degree of persistence of variance making it less likely that exchange rates are integrated in variance copyright 1989 by ohio state university press

metal volatility in presence of oil and interest rate shocks abstract this study uses three two factor volatility models of the garch family to examine the volatility behavior of three strategic commodities gold silver and copper in the presence of crude oil and interest rate shocks the results of the standard garch models suggest that gold and silver have almost the same volatility persistence which is greater than that of copper the cgarch estimates indicate that the short run transitory component of volatility converges to zero much faster for copper than for gold and silver in this sequence however the permanent volatility component demonstrates equally strong persistence in the long run for all three metals the egarch results suggest that the leverage effect is present and significant for copper only implying that gold and silver can be good investment in anticipation of bad times past oil shock does not impact all three metals similarly monetary policy and to leaser extent the oil shocks have calming effects on precious metals but not on copper if the t bill rate is used crises such as the 2003 iraq war heighten metal volatility these results have implications for derivatives valuations using gold as a reserve asset risk analysis and for the commodity exporting countries and commodity producing firms

oil extraction and poverty reduction in the niger delta a critical examination of partnership initiatives the combination of corporate community conflicts and oil transnational corporations tncs rhetoric about being socially responsible has meant that the issue of community development and poverty reduction have recently moved from the periphery to the heart of strategic business thinking within the nigerian oil industry as a result oil tncs have increasingly responded to this challenge by adopting partnership strategies as a means to contribute to poverty reductions in their host communities as well as secure their social licence to operate this paper critically examines the strengths and weaknesses of the different community development partnership cdps initiatives employed by shell exxon mobil and total to contribute to poverty reduction within their host communities in the niger delta nigeria drawing on empirical data and critical analysis the paper argues that while the cdp initiatives by spdc mpn and epnl have the potential to contribute to community development the failure to integrate negative injunction duties into existing partnerships means that the partnerships make no difference to how oil tncs conduct their core business operation consequently cdps have had limited positive impact on poverty reduction in the niger delta the paper concludes by examining the implications of the emerging issues for partnership and poverty reduction

volatility behavior of oil industrial commodity and stock markets in a regime switching environment abstract this study supplements previous regime switching studies on wti crude oil and finds two possible volatility regimes for the strategic commodity prices of brent oil wti oil copper gold and silver and the s p 500 index but with varying high to low volatility ratios the dynamic conditional correlations dccs indicate increasing correlations among all the commodities since the 2003 iraq war but decreasing correlations with the s p 500 index the commodities also show different volatility persistence responses to financial and geopolitical crises while the s p 500 index responds to both financial and geopolitical crises implications are discussed

modelling oil price volatility in this paper we examine the volatility of crude oil price using daily data for the period 1991 2006 our main innovation is that we examine volatility in various sub samples in order to judge the robustness of our results our main findings can be summarised as follows 1 across the various sub samples there is inconsistent evidence of asymmetry and persistence of shocks and 2 over the full sample period evidence suggests that shocks have permanent effects and asymmetric effects on volatility these findings imply that the behaviour of oil prices tends to change over short periods of time

environmental justice in the oil refinery industry a panel analysis across united states counties abstract environmental injustice due to economic inequality and its correlates and consequences has been a focus for researchers and policy makers alike over many years with much of that research focusing on race as the major determinant of inequality in this paper we extend this literature by focussing on emissions from the oil refinery industry at the community level in particular based on the use of panel data we analyse econometrically how the environmental performance of individual petroleum refineries emissions of benzene and toluene to the atmosphere associates with determinants of economic inequality at the micro level in terms of average per capita income at the level of united states counties as well as average county level unemployment rates the paper finds evidence of environmental injustice as a result of unemployment levels in areas around refineries and to a slightly lesser extent as a result of income inequality it discusses these results in a wider context referring amongst other things to the role of county level community characteristics and the potential for private firms to substitute for the intervention of public institutions if these are lacking

oil prices and the impact of the financial crisis of 2007 2009 abstract oil prices increased dramatically during 2004 2006 industry experts initially attributed these price increases to fundamental factors such as the rise in global demand but also because of disruptions in the supply of oil the price increases however were so substantial that additional factors are needed to explain such dramatic changes we propose that the decline in the value of the u s dollar measured both by the appreciation of the euro and of gold prices played an important role as oil suppliers demanded compensation for the declining value of the dollar using a markov switching regime methodology we find evidence that this hypothesis is true prior to the financial crisis but its validity does not hold after the crisis when oil prices crashed and the dollar rallied

a hard nut to crack implementing supply chain sustainability in an emerging economy abstract in the last decade sustainable supply chain management has become a key topic in the sustainability literature as well as a buzzword in industry and policy circles although research has made substantial contributions there is a lack of understanding on how focal companies operating in emerging economies can lead the implementation of sustainability into their supply chains this research connects and advances the constructs of cleaner production sustainability and supply chains by exploring a classic case of a focal company operating in an emerging economy that even facing considerable challenges has been able to succeed in transforming its entire supply chain drawing from stakeholder theory and contingency theory this research offers four key contributions to the sustainability and supply chain discourses as follows 1 it proposes an innovation centered approach to sustainable supply chain management by adapting and extending the tcos uncertainty framework 2 it suggests that the way a focal company manages and is influenced by its established network of relationships shape the evolution of the supply chain sustainability trajectories 3 it argues that supply chains are dynamic entities and should then be considered and understood through the lenses of evolutionary approaches and 4 it suggests that the implementation and management of sustainable supply chains are context specific challenges and therefore theoretical managerial and policy generalizations are difficult to be achieved

climate change and the economy in baja california assessment of macroeconomic impacts of the state s climate action plan abstract despite its developing country status mexico ranks 10th worldwide in total greenhouse gas ghg emissions however mexico s vulnerability to climate change impacts is a major motivating factor behind its announced intended contributions at cop21 to cut its baseline emissions by at least 25 in 2030 we analyze the macroeconomic impacts of the climate action plan cap process undertaken in the mexican border state of baja california bc we adapt a state of the art regional macroeconometric model to analyze the bc economy wide impacts of 22 ghg mitigation policy options recommended in the baja california cap the combined effects include an average annual increase of 1680 new jobs or about 0 11 of the average annual employment in the baseline economic forecast and a gross state product gsp increase of 9 85 billion pesos in npv over the 2015 2030 planning horizon although the main objective of ghg mitigation is to reduce atmospheric concentrations and hence future potential damages of these pollutants the stimulus to the bc economy from the implementation of its cap represents a valuable co benefit moreover it is a tangible one that will take place in the near term in contrast to the more long term and more uncertain benefits associated with reducing climate change damages

technologies energy systems and the timing of co2 emissions abatement an overview of economic issues abstract this paper provides an overview of economic issues involved in timing limitations on co2 emissions from energy systems it highlights issues relating to technology availability development and diffusion and the inertia of energy systems as being particularly important the paper sets this in the context of wider uncertainties surrounding the problem and briefly considers other aspects relevant to timing the paper is stimulated by the debate in the usa about optimal abatement paths in particular recent claims that it would be economically preferable to defer such abatement action in favour of measures that support technology development but do not affect emission trends for many years this paper categorizes the various economic issues involved and concludes that for each economic argument that has been advanced to justify deferring emission constraints there are counter vailing economic arguments that could be used in support of rapid near term emissions abatement rational policy lies between these extremes a policy of deferring all emissions abatement exposes economic systems and industries as well as the environment to significantly greater costs and risks than those arising from a more balanced approach furthermore the modelling studies that have been used to justify deferring emissions abatement do so because they embody the economic factors favourable to delay and largely neglect the countervailing issues to the point where their results have little relevance to the overall problem of timing emissions abatement

rational expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime an investigation of the term structure of interest rates abstract this paper is of interest both for its methodological contribution of new tools for analyzing rational expectations models and for its substantive conclusions concerning the term structure of interest rates during the monetary experiment of october 1979 the paper studies systems subject to changes in regime interpreted here as occasional discrete shifts in the parameters governing the time series behavior of exogenous economic variables the specification is shown to be quite tractable both theoretically and empirically the technique is used to analyze yields on three month treasury bills and ten year treasury bonds during 1962 to 1987 a constant parameter linear model for short term rates is shown to be inconsistent both with the univariate time series properties of short rates and with the observed bivariate relation between long and short rates under the expectations hypothesis of the term structure an alternative nonlinear model that admits the possibility of changes in regime affords a much better description of the univariate process for short rates moreover the cross equation restrictions implied by the expectations hypothesis of the term structure are consistent with the nonlinear specification indeed the residuals of the restricted relation have a standard error of only 0 8 basis points this is a third less than that of a completely unrestricted linear regression of long rates on short rates and compares with an unconditional standard deviation of long rates of 142 basis points i conclude that once the recognition by bond traders of changes in regime is taken into account the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates holds up fairly well for these data

risk appetite and oil prices abstract we demonstrate that oil prices and their volatility are no longer determined solely by real economic shocks to supply of and demand for oil but are also driven by shocks originating in the economic uncertainty and risk appetite of investors that prevail in the equity market the contribution of the latter factor has become particularly remarkable since the mid 2000s to establish these results we dismantle the squared vix index determined in the s p 500 options market into the conditional variance in stock returns to proxy for economic uncertainty and the equity variance risk premium to proxy for risk appetite using threshold garch structural vector auto regression and causality models we provide evidence about the link between risk appetite oil price returns and volatility furthermore investors appetite for risk drives changes in the ovx which measures perceptions about future oil volatility but not vice versa our results provide a better understanding of the relationship between oil the vix and its two proposed components in particular we show that changes in the risk appetite of investors are an important determinant not only for the price of equities but also for that of the most important energy resource oil

the impact of learning by doing on the timing and costs of co2 abatement abstract a particular ceiling on atmospheric co 2 concentrations can be maintained through a variety of emission pathways over the past decade there has been considerable debate over the characteristics of a least cost pathway some have suggested that a gradual departure from the emissions baseline will be the most cost effective because it reduces the pressure for premature retirement of the existing capital stock and it provides valuable time to develop low cost low carbon emitting substitutes others counter that a major flaw in analyses that support this line of reasoning is that they ignore learning by doing lbd in this paper we examine the impact of lbd on the timing and costs of emissions abatement with regard to timing we find that including learning by doing does not significantly alter the conclusions of previous studies that treated technology cost as exogenous the analysis supports the earlier conclusion that for a wide range of stabilization ceilings a gradual transition away from the no policy emissions baseline is preferable to one that requires substantial near term reductions we find that the major impact of including learning by doing is on the costs of emission abatement depending upon the sensitivity of costs to cumulative experience lbd can substantially reduce the overall costs of emissions abatement

keeping good company a study of corporate governance in five countries this study describes in turn the systems that operate in five leading industrial countries germany japan france the usa and the uk it establishes two basic principles of good corporate governance and shows how they are applied in each country indicating where methods vary and how most countries fall short of the ideal the book concludes by highlighting the uk s strengths and weaknesses and calls for a thorough overhaul of policy

paradoxes and dilemmas for stakeholder responsive firms in the extractive sector lessons from the case of shell and the ogoni this paper examines some of the paradoxes and dilemmas facing firms in the extractive sector when they attempt to take on a more stakeholder responsive orientation towards issues of environmental and social responsibility we describe the case of shell and the ogoni and attempt to draw out some of the lessons of that case for more sustainable operations in the developing world we argue that firms such as shell rio tinto and others may well exhibit increasingly stakeholder responsive behaviours at the corporate strategic level however for reasons of strategy lack of competency or institutional will this increasing level of corporate responsiveness may not be mirrored effectively in dealings between subsidiary business units and their most important direct stakeholders for example local communities and in the developing world we contrast the struggles of shell to replicate its corporate stakeholder responsiveness at the local level in nigeria with the experiences of other firms that seem to have developed managerial capabilities at a somewhat deeper level throughout the firm with consequent benefits both for stakeholders and the business

persistence in variance structural change and the garch model this article examines the persistence of the variance as measured by the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity garch model in stock return data in particular we investigate the extent to which persistence in variance may be overstated because of the existence of and failure to take account of deterministic structural shifts in the model both an analysis of daily stock return data and a monte carlo simulation experiment confirm the hypothesis that garch measures of persistence in variance are sensitive to this type of model misspecification

heteroskedasticity in stock return data volume versus garch effects this paper provides empirical support for the notion that autoregressive conditional heterqskedasticity arch in daily stock return data reflects time dependence in the process generating information flow to the market daily trading volume used as a proxy for information arrival time is shown to have significant explanatory power regarding the variance of daily returns which is an implication of the assumption that daily returns are subordinated to intraday equilibrium returns furthermore arch effects tend to disappear when volume is included in the variance equation the autoregressive conditiqnal heteroskedasticity arch process of engle 1982 has been shown to provide a good fit for many financial return time series 1 arch imposes an autoregressive structure on conditional variance allqwing volatility shocks to persist over time this persistence captures the propensity of returns of like magnitude to clu ter in time and can explain the well documented nonnormality and nonstability of empirical asset return distributions see especially fama 1965 an appealing explanation for the presence of arch is based upon the hypothesis that daily returns are generated by a maiture of distributions in which the rate of daily information arrival is the stochastic mixing variable as suggested by diebold 1986 gallant hsieh and tauchen 1988 and stock 1987 1988 arch might capture the time series properties e g serial correlation of this mixing variable hqwever this linkage has not been broadly documented with the datia the objective of this study is to examine the validity of this explanation for daily stock returns the empirical strategy exploits the implication of the mixture model that the variance of daily price increments is heteroskedastic specifically positively related to the rate of daily information arrival using daily trading volume as a proxy for the mixing variable we show that for a sample of 20 common stocks arch effects vanish when volume is included as an explanatory variable in the conditional variance equation

the corporate social performance financial performance link strategic managers are consistently faced with the decision of how to allocate scarce corporate resources in an environment that is placing more and more pressures on them recent scholarship in strategic management suggests that many of these pressures come directly from sources associated with social issues in management rather than traditional arenas of strategic management using a greatly improved source of data on corporate social performance this paper reports the results of a rigorous study of the empirical linkages between financial and social performance corporate social performance csp is found to be positively associated with prior financial performance supporting the theory that slack resource availability and csp are positively related csp is also found to be positively associated with future financial performance supporting the theory that good management and csp are positively related 1997 by john wiley sons ltd