cost of living inequality during the great recession using detailed barcode level data we construct income group specific price indices for the period of 2004 to 2010 we find substantial differences across income groups arising mainly during the great recession the annual cost of living inflation of the highest quartile has been on average 0 7 percentage points lower than that of the lowest quartile of the income distribution the difference can be explained by the way consumers adjusted their shopping behavior to mitigate the crisis we find that product quality substitution a margin mostly available to richer households is the main mechanism explaining the differences in cost of living inflation our evidence suggests that not accounting for these differences during economic downturns could lead to significant biases in the calculation of inequality and poverty measures jel classifications d12 e31 e32 we thank fernando alvarez erik hurst anil kashyap robert lucas and joseph vavra for their advice and support the paper benefited from comments and suggestions by many others including bong geun choi jorge l garcia jessie handbury sara moreira roberto robatto adriaan ten kate yike wang chen yeh and seminar participants at the university of chicago iea meeting washington university graduate student conference and the midwest macro meeting contacts david argente dargente uchicago edu munseob lee munseob uchicago edu

state level implications of federal tax policies abstract the united states federal fiscal policy has differential impact across states we construct a new quarterly state level dataset that we use to analyze the impact of unexpected changes in federal personal and corporate income taxes we find substantial heterogeneity across states with more than half having no significant response to the tax cuts in addition less capital intensive states have larger responses to corporate tax cuts although puzzling in standard models a model with corporate and non corporate sectors is consistent with this evidence overall our results suggest the importance of variation and reallocation across states in evaluating federal policy

debt deleveraging and the liquidity trap a fisher minsky koo approach in this paper we present a simple new keynesian style model of debt driven slumps that is situations in which an overhang of debt on the part of some agents who are forced into rapid deleveraging is depressing aggregate demand making some agents debt constrained is a surprisingly powerful assumption fisherian debt deflation the possibility of a liquidity trap the paradox of thrift a keynesiantype multiplier and a rationale for expansionary fiscal policy all emerge naturally from the model we argue that this approach sheds considerable light both on current economic difficulties and on historical episodes including japan s lost decade now in its 18th year and the great depression itself

minimum wage and real wage inequality evidence from pass through to retail prices this paper considers the impact of the minimum wage on both labor and product markets using detailed store level scanner data i provide empirical evidence that a 10 increase in the minimum wage r

money income prices and interest rates including data from the 1980s sharply weakens the postwar time series evidence indicating significant relationships between money however defined and nominal income or between money and either real income or prices separately focusing on data from 1970 onward destroys this evidence altogether evidence indicating cointegration of real income and real money balances with due allowance for the effect of interest rates also deteriorates when the sample extends through the 1980s a positive finding is that the spread between the commercial paper rate and the treasury bill rate consistently contains highly significant information about future movements in real income copyright 1992 by american economic association

house prices home equity based borrowing and the u s household leverage crisis us household leverage sharply increased in the years preceding the 2007 eco nomic recession the top panel of figure 1 shows the steady rise in household debt since 1975 which accelerated beginning in 2002 in just five years the household sector doubled its debt balance in comparison the contemporaneous increase in corporate debt was modest the middle panel shows that the increase in household debt from 2002 to 2007 translated into a striking rise in household leverage as mea sured by the debt to income ratio during the same time period corporate leverage declined the dramatic absolute and relative rise in us household leverage from 2002 to 2007 is unprecedented compared to the last 25 years one reason for the rapid expansion in household leverage during this period is that mortgage credit became more easily available to new home buyers mian and sufi 2009 strong house price appreciation from 2002 to 2006 however which may have been fueled by the availability of mortgage credit to a riskier set of new home buyers could also have had an important feedback effect on household lever age through existing homeowners given that 65 percent of us households already owned their primary residence before the acceleration in house prices the feedback from house prices to borrowing may be an important source of the rapid rise in household leverage that preceded the economic downturn our central goals in this study are to estimate how homeowner borrowing responded to the increase in house prices and to identify which homeowners responded most aggressively we examine this home equity based borrowing channel using a dataset consisting of anonymous individual credit files of a national consumer credit bureau agency we follow a random sample of over 74 000 us homeowners who owned their homes as of 1997 at an annual frequency from the end of 1997 until the end of 2008 the bottom panel of figure 1 plots the growth in debt of 1997 homeowners over time and shows that existing homeowners borrow significantly more debt as their house prices appreciate from 2002 to 2006 while the aggregate trend is suggestive

optimal monetary policy in a currency area abstract this paper investigates how monetary policy should be conducted in a two region general equilibrium model with monopolistic competition and price stickiness this framework delivers a simple welfare criterion based on the utility of the consumers that can be used to evaluate monetary policy in a currency area if the two regions share the same degree of nominal rigidity the terms of trade are completely insulated from monetary policy and the optimal outcome is obtained by targeting a weighted average of the regional inflation rates these weights coincide with the economic sizes of the region if the degrees of rigidity are different the optimal plan implies a high degree of inertia in the inflation rate but an inflation targeting policy in which higher weight is given to the inflation in the region with higher degree of nominal rigidity is nearly optimal

confidence intervals for half life deviations from purchasing power parity existing point estimates of half life deviations from purchasing power parity ppp around 3 5 years suggest that the speed of convergence is extremely slow this article assesses the degree of uncertainty around these point estimates by using local to unity asymptotic theory to construct confidence intervals that are robust to high persistence in small samples the empirical evidence suggests that the lower bound of the confidence interval is between four and eight quarters for most currencies which is not inconsistent with traditional price stickiness explanations however the upper bounds are infinity for all currencies so we cannot provide conclusive evidence in favor of ppp either

beyond dsge models toward an empirically based macroeconomics david colander has been writing about economic methodology for over 30 years but he goes out of his way to emphasize that he does not see himself as a methodologist his pragmatic methodology is applicable to what economists are doing and attempts to answer questions that all economists face as they go about their work the articles collected in this volume are divided with the first part providing a framework underlying colander s methodology and introducing colander s methodology for economic policy within that framework part two presents colander s view on the methodology for microeconomics while part three looks at colander s methodology for macroeconomics the book closes with discussions of broader issues this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

how does credit supply expansion affect the real economy the productive capacity and household demand channels credit supply expansion can affect an economy by increasing productive capacity or by boosting household demand in this study we develop a test to determine if the household demand channel is present and we implement the test using both a natural experiment in the united states in the 1980s and an international panel of 56 countries over the last several decades consistent with the importance of the household demand channel we find that credit supply expansion boosts nontradable sector employment and the price of nontradable goods with limited effects on tradable sector employment such credit expansions amplify the business cycle and lead to more severe recessions

are micro and macro labor supply elasticities consistent a review of evidence on the intensive and extensive margins we evaluate whether state of the art macro models featuring indivisible labor are consistent with modern quasi experimental micro evidence by synthesizing evidence on both the intensive and extensive margins we find that micro estimates are consistent with macro estimates of the steady state hicksian elasticities relevant for cross country comparisons on both the extensive and intensive margins however micro estimates of intertemporal substitution frisch elasticities are an order of magnitude smaller than the values needed to explain business cycle fluctuations in aggregate hours by preferences the key puzzle to be resolved is why micro and macro estimates of the frisch extensive margin elasticity are so different

regional heterogeneity and the refinancing channel of monetary policy we argue that the time varying regional distribution of housing equity influences the aggregate consequences of monetary policy through its effects on mortgage refinancing using detailed loan level data we show that regional differences in housing equity affect refinancing and spending responses to interest rate cuts but these effects vary over time with changes in the regional distribution of house price growth we build a heterogeneous household model of refinancing with mortgage borrowers and lenders and use it to explore the monetary policy implications arising from our regional evidence we find that the 2008 equity distribution made spending in depressed regions less responsive to interest rate cuts thus dampening aggregate stimulus and increasing regional consumption inequality whereas the opposite occurred in some earlier recessions taken together our results strongly suggest that monetary policy makers should track the regional distribution of equity over time

convergence rates to purchasing power parity for traded and nontraded goods this article estimates the speed of the adjustment coefficient in structural error correction models we use a system method for real exchange rates of traded and nontraded goods by combining a single equation method with hansen and sargent s instrumental variables methods for linear rational expectations models we apply these methods to a modified version of mussa s model our results show that the half lives of purchasing power parity deviations for the rates of traded goods are less than 1 year and are shorter than those for general price and for nontraded goods in most cases implying a faster adjustment speed to parity

purchasing power parity and country characteristics evidence from panel data tests abstract we examine long run purchasing power parity ppp using panel data methods to test for unit roots in us dollar real exchange rates of 84 countries we find stronger evidence of ppp in countries more open to trade closer to the united states with lower inflation and moderate nominal exchange rate volatility and with similar economic growth rates as the united states we also show that ppp holds for panels of european and latin american countries but not for african and asian countries our findings demonstrate that country characteristics can help explain both adherence to and deviations from long run ppp

life cycle prices and production we use scanner data and time diaries to document how households substitute time for money through shopping and home production we document substantial heterogeneity in prices paid for identical goods for the same area and time with older households shopping the most and paying the lowest prices doubling shopping frequency lowers a good s price by 7 to 10 percent we estimate the shopper s price of time and use this series to estimate an elasticity of substitution between time and goods in home production of roughly 1 8 the observed life cycle time allocation implies a consumption series that differs markedly from expenditures

one money one market the effect of common currencies on trade currency unions their dramatic effect on international trade a gravity model is used to assess the separate effects of exchange rate volatility and currency unions on international trade the panel data bilateral observations for five years during 1970 90 covering 186 countries includes 300 observations in which both countries use the same currency i find a large positive effect of a currency union on international trade and a small negative effect of exchange rate volatility even after controlling for a host of features including the endogenous nature of the exchange rate regime these effects statistically significant imply that two countries sharing the same currency trade three times as much as they would with different currencies currency unions like the european emu may thus lead to a large increase in international trade with all that that entails andrew rose

the elasticity of substitution between time and market goods evidence from the great recession the elasticity of substitution between time and market goods we document a change in household shopping behavior during the great recession households purchased more on sale larger sizes and generic products increased coupon usage and shopping at discount stores we estimate that the returns to these shopping activities declined during the recession and therefore this behavior implies a significant decrease in households opportunity cost of time using the estimated cost of time and time use data we estimate a high elasticity of substitution between market expenditure and time spent on non market work we find that households smooth a sizable fraction of consumption by varying their time allocation during recessions institutional subscribers to the nber working paper series and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www nber org

a half century of returns on levered and unlevered portfolios of stocks bonds and bills with and without small stocks in two earlier papers grauer and hakansson 1982 grauer and hakansson 1984 we applied the multiperiod portfolio theory of mossin 1968 hakansson 1971 1974 leland 1972 ross 1974 and huberman and ross 1983 to the construction and rebalancing of portfolios composed of u s stocks corporate bonds government bonds and a risk free asset borrowing was ruled out in the first article while margin purchases were permitted in the second the probability distributions used were naively estimated from past realized returns in ibbotson this paper applies multiperiod portfolio theory to the construction and rebalancing of portfolios composed of u s stocks corporate bonds government bonds and a risk free asset with small stocks included as a separate investment vehicle probability assessments are based on the past joint empirical distribution our principal findings are 1 small stocks while totally ignored at times entered even the most riskaverse portfolios most of the time and 2 small stocks when chosen tended to replace common stocks except in the 1970s and early 1980s when they were primarily held in lieu of the risk free asset presented at the australian graduate school of management and at macquarie university both in sydney southern methodist university duke university the university of southern california the london graduate school of business and the annual meeting of the western financo association in scottsdale arizona the authors thank the participants of these seminars especially michael brennan and ehud ronn for helpful comments financial support from the social sciences and humanities research council of canada and the financial research foundation of canada is gratefully acknowledged the authors also wish to thank changwoo lee for research assistance and are greatly indebted to frederick shen for computational assistance

the aggregate implications of regional business cycles during the last recession and its aftermath aggregate price growth and aggregate nominal wage growth remained robust despite the high rate of unemployment we document that u s states with weaker labor markets experienced lower price growth lower nominal wage growth and lower real wage growth during the great recession given that reliable measures of local prices do not exist we create our own state price indices using scanner data from the nielsen retail scanner database the main innovation of the paper is the development of an econometric procedure that combines cross region data with aggregate time series data to infer the underlying shocks driving both aggregate and regional business cycles applying our procedure to the great recession we find that a combination of both demand and supply shocks are necessary to account for the joint dynamics of aggregate prices wages and employment during the 2007 2012 period in contrast we find that only demand shocks are needed to explain the cross region variation the results suggest that only using cross region variation to explain aggregate fluctuations is insufficient when shocks do not have a substantive regional component

real exchange rate behavior the recent float from the perspective of the past two centuries using annual data spanning two centuries for dollar sterling and franc sterling real exchange rates we find strong evidence of mean reverting real exchange rate behavior using simple stationary autoregressive models estimated on prefloat data we easily outperform nonstationary real exchange rate models in dynamic forecasting exercises over the recent float such stationary univariate equations explain 60 80 percent of the in sample variation in real exchange rates although the degree of short run persistence may be high the econometric estimates imply a half life of shocks to the real exchange rate of about 6 years for dollar sterling and a little under 3 years for franc sterling

local persistence and the ppp hypothesis abstract this paper examines the statistical properties of the bilateral real exchange rates of the u s vs france germany and the u k during the post bretton woods period and draws implications on the purchasing power parity ppp hypothesis contrary to traditional studies that consider only unit root and stationary processes to describe the real exchange rate behavior this paper considers an in between process the locally persistent process the empirical results demonstrate the following two findings 1 locally persistent processes describe the real exchange rate movements better than unit root and stationary processes which implies that ppp reversion occurs and ppp holds in the long run 2 the confidence intervals for half life deviations from ppp under local persistence tend to be narrower than those obtained by assuming the adf and the local to unity models

regional effects of exchange rate fluctuations we exploit differences across u s states exposure to trade to study the effects of changes in the exchange rate on economic activity across states trade weighted exchange rate depreciations are associated with increased state exports reduced state unemployment and higher state hours worked the effects are particularly strong during periods of economic slack a multiregion model with interstate trade and labor flows calibrated to match state level trade data and migration flows replicates the empirical relationship between exchange rates and unemployment the high degree of interstate trade plays an important role in transmitting shocks across states in the first year whereas interstate migration shapes cross sectional patterns in later years we use the model to study the regional effects of tariffs in the united states the model suggests that a 25 chinese import tariff on u s goods would be felt throughout the united states even in states with small direct linkages to china raising unemployment rates by 0 2 to 0 7 percentage points in the short run

fiscal and monetary rules for a currency union abstract this paper addresses the optimal joint conduct of fiscal and monetary policy in a two country model of a currency union with staggered price setting and distortionary taxes a tractable linear quadratic approximation permits a representation of the optimal policy plan in terms of targeting rules in the optimal equilibrium monetary policy should achieve aggregate price stability following a flexible inflation targeting rule fiscal policy should stabilize idiosyncratic shocks allowing for permanent variations of government debt but should abstain from creating inflationary expectations at the union level simple policy rules can approximate the optimal commitment benchmark through a mix of strict inflation targeting and flexible budget rules conversely the welfare costs of balanced budget rules are at least one order of magnitude higher than conventional estimates of the costs of business cycle fluctuactions

the cyclicality of sales regular and effective prices business cycle and policy implications author s coibion olivier gorodnichenko yuriy hong gee hee abstract we study the cyclical properties of sales regular price changes and average prices paid by consumers effective prices using data on prices and quantities sold for numerous retailers across many us metropolitan areas inflation in the effective prices paid by consumers declines significantly with higher unemployment while little change occurs in the inflation rate of prices posted by retailers this difference reflects the reallocation of household expenditures across retailers a feature of the data which we document and quantify rather than sales we propose a simple model with household store switching and assess its implications for business cycles and policymakers jel d12 e31 e32 l25 l81

exchange rate economics is always and everywhere controversial abstractthis article reviews the major developments in the recent literature on exchange rate economics it is argued that the link between the exchange rate and economic fundamentals is breaking new ground evidence indicates that alternative analytical frameworks such as the new open economy macroeconomics and exchange rate arrangements such as the euro have their theoretical and analytical elegance but are proving empirically very difficult to implement the role of methodological advances and alternative fundamental instruments such as world commodity prices is also highlighted

income and wealth heterogeneity in the macroeconomy how do movements in the distribution of income and wealth affect the macroeconomy we analyze this question using a calibrated version of the stochastic growth model with partially uninsurable idiosyncratic risk and movements in aggregate productivity our main finding is that in the stationary stochastic equilibrium the behavior of the macroeconomic aggregates can be almost perfectly described using only the mean of the wealth distribution this result is robust to substantial changes in both parameter values and model specification our benchmark model whose only difference from the representative agent framework is the existence of uninsurable idiosyncratic risk displays far less cross sectional dispersion and skewness in wealth than u s data however an extension that relies on a small amount of heterogeneity in thrift does succeed in replicating the key features of the wealth data furthermore this extension features aggregate time series that depart significantly from permanent income behavior

commodity currencies and the real exchange rate abstract this paper examines whether the real exchange rates of commodity exporting countries and the real prices of their commodity exports move together over time using international monetary fund imf data on the world prices of 44 commodities and national commodity export shares we construct new monthly indices of national commodity export prices for 58 commodity exporting countries over 1980 2002 evidence of a long run relationship between national real exchange rate and real commodity prices is found for about one third of the commodity exporting countries the long run real exchange rate of these commodity currencies is not constant as would be implied by purchasing power parity based models but is time varying being dependent on movements in the real price of commodity exports

coarse pricing policies the muted volatility of inflation during the great recession and its aftermath has refocused attention on the constraints that firms face when adjusting prices using new empirical and theoretical results i argue that each firm s choice of how much information to acquire to set prices plays a central role in determining the patterns of pricing at the product level and the degree of aggregate price rigidity in response to shocks in support of the information channel i present product level evidence that firms price goods using coarse pricing policies that are updated infrequently and consist of a small menu of prices firms are heterogeneous in the complexity and duration of their pricing policies and this heterogeneity is reflected in differential responses to the great recession cycle with firms exhibiting more complex policies responding more aggressively i develop a theory of information constrained price setting that generates coarse pricing endogenously and quantitatively matches the discreteness duration and volatility of policies in the data the information friction dampens the responsiveness of prices to shocks and coupled with heightened volatility induces firms to keep prices relatively high to protect against losses in an uncertain environment

the need for international policy coordination what s old what s new what s yet to come the first generation of policy coordination models was introduced some 25 years ago it provided a rationale for policy coordination but the gains from coordination were generally thought to be small now a new generation of policy coordination models is emerging incorporating monopolistic competition and nominal inertia here we examine macroeconomic interdependence and the scope for policy coordination in a tractable second generation model with two countries and multiple sectors initial calibration of the model suggests that second generation models may have more scope for policy coordination than did the first d 2004 elsevier b v all rights reserved

deviations from purchasing power parity under different exchange rate regimes do they revert and if so how abstract we propose an empirical model for deviations from long run purchasing power parity ppp that simultaneously accounts for three key features i adjustment toward ppp may occur via nominal exchange rates and relative prices at different speeds ii different exchange rate regimes may generate regime shifts in the structural dynamics of ppp deviations iii nonlinear reversion toward ppp in response to shocks this empirical framework encompasses and synthesizes much previous empirical research using over a century of data for the g5 countries we provide evidence that long run ppp holds the relative importance of nominal exchange rates and prices in restoring ppp varies over time and across different exchange rate regimes and reversion to ppp occurs nonlinearly at a speed that is fairly consistent with the nominal rigidities suggested by conventional open economy models

the nonlinear impact of currency unions on bilateral trade abstract most gravity model specifications assume that a currency union varies the level of bilateral trade between members by a constant proportion we demonstrate that a common currency also alters the slope of the relationship between bilateral trade and member country gdps

the european sovereign debt crisis the origin and propagation of the european sovereign debt crisis can be attributed to the flawed original design of the euro in particular there was an incomplete understanding of the fragility of a monetary union under crisis conditions especially in the absence of banking union and other european level buffer mechanisms moreover the inherent messiness involved in proposing and implementing incremental multicountry crisis management responses on the fly has been an important destabilizing factor throughout the crisis after diagnosing the situation we consider reforms that might improve the resilience of the euro area to future fiscal shocks

shift share designs theory and inference we study inference in shift share regression designs such as when a regional outcome is regressed on a weighted average of sectoral shocks using regional sector shares as weights we conduct a placebo exercise in which we estimate the effect of a shift share regressor constructed with randomly generated sectoral shocks on actual labor market outcomes across u s commuting zones tests based on commonly used standard errors with 5 nominal significance level reject the null of no effect in up to 55 of the placebo samples we use a stylized economic model to show that this overrejection problem arises because regression residuals are correlated across regions with similar sectoral shares independent of their geographic location we derive novel inference methods that are valid under arbitrary cross regional correlation in the regression residuals we show using popular applications of shift share designs that our methods may lead to substantially wider confidence intervals in practice

incomplete pass through and the welfare effects of exchange rate variability abstract this paper considers the implications of incomplete exchange rate pass through for optimal monetary and exchange rate policy a two country model is presented which allows an explicit derivation of welfare functions in terms of a weighted sum of the second moments of producer prices and the nominal exchange rate from a single country perspective the optimal exchange rate variance depends on the degree of pass through the size and openness of the economy the elasticity of labour supply and the volatility of foreign producer prices welfare may be decreasing or increasing in the volatility of the exchange rate

monetary non neutrality in a multisector menu cost model empirical evidence suggests that as much as one third of the u s business cycle is due to nominal shocks we calibrate a multisector menu cost model using new evidence on the cross sectional distribution of the frequency and size of price changes in the u s economy we augment the model to incorporate intermediate inputs we show that the introduction of heterogeneity in the frequency of price change triples the degree of monetary non neutrality generated by the model we furthermore show that the introduction of intermediate inputs raises the degree of monetary non neutrality by another factor of three without adversely affecting the model s ability to match the large average size of price changes a single sector model with a frequency of price change equal to the median rather than the mean generates monetary non neutrality similar to that in our multisector model our multisector model with intermediate inputs generates variation in real output in response to calibrated aggregate nominal shocks that can account for roughly 23 of the u s business cycle

exchange rate volatility before and after the float this paper provides a descriptive analysis of broad features of major exchange rates since the early 1970s and compares these features with those of the 1960s the analysis is then extended to investigate whether these features are manifested in interest rates and in commodity prices the results indicate that while the exchange rates have become more volatile during the current floating rate regime the moments are comparable with those for interest rates and commodity prices

uniform pricing in us retail chains we show that most u s food drugstore and mass merchandise chains charge nearly uniform prices across stores despite wide variation in consumer demographics and competition demand estimates reveal substantial within chain variation in price elasticities and suggest that the median chain sacrifices 16 million of annual profit relative to a benchmark of optimal prices in contrast differences in average prices between chains are broadly consistent with the optimal benchmark we discuss a range of explanations for nearly uniform pricing highlighting managerial inertia and brand image concerns as mechanisms frequently mentioned by industry participants relative to our optimal benchmark uniform pricing may significantly increase the prices paid by poorer households relative to the rich dampen the response of prices to local economic shocks alter the analysis of mergers in antitrust and shift the incidence of intranational trade costs

the role of prices in measuring the poor s living standards in this paper we revisit two pieces of conventional wisdom in the current debate about poverty paying close attention to the price data underlying these findings that the poor pay more than households of higher income for the goods and services they purchase and that poverty rates at least as measured by the u s census have remained essentially flat since the late 1960s raising questions about the success of the policies implemented to reduce poverty by examining scanner data on thousands of household purchases we find that the poor pay less not more for the goods they purchase and by extending the advances on price measurement in the recent decade back to the 1970s we find that current poverty rates are less than half of the official numbers

priors from general equilibrium models for vars abstract this paper uses a simple new keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model as a prior for a vector autoregression shows that the resulting model is competitive with standard benchmarks in terms of forecasting and can be used for policy analysis jel classification c11 c32 c53 key words bayesian analysis dsge models forecasting vector autoregressions 1 introduction dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge models are popular nowadays in macroeconomics they are taught in virtually every economics ph d program and represent a predominant share of publications in the field yet when it comes to policy making these models are scarcely used at least from a quantitative point of view the main quantitative workhorse for policy making at the federal reserve system is frb us a macro econometric model built in the cowles foundation tradition a style of macroeconomics that is no longer taught in many ph d programs 1 in their decision process fed policy makers rely heavily on forecasting they want to know the expected path of inflation in the next few quarters and by how much a 50 basis point increase in the federal funds rate would affect that path frb us offers answers to these questions answers that many macroeconomists would regard with suspicion given both the lucas 1976 critique and the fact that in general the restrictions imposed by cowles foundation models are at odds with dynamic general equilibrium macroeconomics sims 1980 general equilibrium models on the other hand have a hard time providing alternative answers the fact that these models are perceived to do badly in terms of forecasting as they are scarcely parameterized is perhaps one of the reasons why they are not at the forefront of policy making while progress is being made in the development of dsge models that deliver acceptable forecasts e g smets and wouters 2003 this paper proposes an approach that combines a stylized general equilibrium model with a vector autoregression var to obtain a specification that both forecasts well and is usable for policy analysis specifically the approach involves using prior information coming from a dsge model in the estimation of a vector autoregression loosely speaking this prior can be thought of as the result of the following exercise i simulate time series data from the dsge model ii fit a var to these data in practice we replace the sample moments of the simulated data by population moments computed from the dsge model solution since the dsge model depends on unknown structural parameters we use a hierarchical prior in our analysis by placing a distribution on the dsge model parameters a tightness parameter controls the weight of the dsge model prior relative to the weight of the actual sample markov chain monte carlo methods are used to generate draws from the joint posterior distribution of the var and dsge model parameters the paper shows that the approach makes even a fairly stylized new keynesian dsge model competitive with standard benchmarks in terms of forecasting real output growth inflation and the nominal interest rate the three variables that are of most interest to policy makers 2 up to this point our procedure borrows from the work of dejong ingram and whiteman 1993 and ingram and whiteman 1994 who are the first to use priors from dsge models for vars ingram and whiteman showed that prior information from the bare bones stochastic growth model of king plosser and rebelo 1988 is helpful in forecasting real economic activity such as output consumption investment and hours worked in addition to documenting the forecasting performance of a trivariate var with a prior derived from a monetary dsge model this paper makes two contributions that significantly extend the earlier work first we show formally how posterior inference for the var parameters can be translated into posterior inference for dsge model parameters

unbiased estimation of the half life to ppp convergence in panel data three potential sources of bias introduce complications for panel data estimation of the half life of purchasing power parity deviations they are bias induced by inappropriate cross sectional aggregation of heterogeneous coefficients small sample estimation bias of dynamic lag coefficients and bias induced by time aggregation of commodity prices all of these biases have been addressed individually in the literature in this paper we address all three biases in arriving at our estimates using an annual panel data set of cpi based real exchange rates for 21 oecd countries from 1973 to 1998 we obtain a point estimate of the unbiased half life of 3 0 years with a 95 confidence interval of 2 3 4 2 years

how well does nonlinear mean reversion solve the ppp puzzle abstract this paper addresses the degree to which models which exhibit nonlinear mean reversion nmr present a resolution to the purchasing power parity puzzle this paper develops a method of estimating a representative distribution of half lives which is based upon the observed distribution of shocks in a given time series rather than choosing shock sizes arbitrarily which is the current practice in the literature this approach is implemented with data on five real exchange rates the empirical analysis shows that half lives shorter than the consensus are observed frequently enough to support the proposition that nmr is a solution to the ppp puzzle

the dynamic effects of currency union on trade abstract the response of trade to a monetary union is a dynamic process an empirical study of the european monetary union finds that the extensive margin of trade in new goods responded several years ahead of emu implementation and ahead of overall trade volume a dynamic rational expectations trade model shows that early entry of new firms in anticipation is explainable as a rational forward looking response to news the model helps identify which types of trading frictions are reduced by a currency union and shows how new entry can be affected by uncertainty about emu

inflation dynamics and time varying volatility new evidence and an ss interpretation is monetary policy less effective at increasing real output during periods of high volatility than during normal times in this article i argue that greater volatility leads to an increase in aggregate price flexibility so that nominal stimulus mostly generates inflation rather than output growth to do this i construct price setting models with volatility shocks and show these models match new facts in cpi micro data that standard price setting models miss i then show that these models imply that output responds less to nominal stimulus during times of high volatility furthermore because volatility is countercyclical this implies that nominal stimulus has smaller real effects during downturns for example the estimated output response to additional nominal stimulus in september 1995 a time of low volatility is 55 larger than the response in october 2001 a time of high volatility jel codes e10 e30 e31 e50 d8 copyright 2014 oxford university press