productive energy use and economic growth energy physical and human capital relationships abstract ecological and biophysical economists and historians of economics consider that availability of energy inputs has played a key role in driving economic growth in industrialized and emerging economies nevertheless being very sensitive to structural characteristics or stages of economic development the strength of this link differs among countries this study analyzes the role of energy in economic growth from a geographical standpoint by estimating an aggregate translog production function with human and physical capital and productive energy use as production factors within a growth framework panel data of 38 major countries for the period from 1995 to 2007 were used the strength of the link between energy and growth is analyzed for the whole sample and the following relevant country groups oecd bric nafta east asian east european and eu15 countries obtained results show that the calculated productivity elasticities with respect to energy use are positive for all country groups bric countries have higher elasticities around 0 37 and eu15 countries have lower elasticities around 0 12 weak substitutability relationships between energy and capital are observed for all groups except for bric and east european countries which show complementarity relationships

the inflation tax in a real business cycle model money is incorporated into a real business cycle model using a cash in advance constraint the model economy is used to analyze whether the business cycle is different in high inflation and low inflation economies and to analyze the impact of variability in the growth rate of money in addition the welfare cost of the inflation tax is measured and the steady state properties of high and low inflation economies are compared

are all central bank interventions created equal an empirical investigation abstract this study investigates the relationship between central bank interventions and technical trading rule profitability in the spot foreign exchange market because interventions are not necessarily exogenous events we analyze the relationships between interventions by the g 3 central banks financial market conditions changes in monetary policy and technical trading profitability by considering announced unannounced unilateral and coordinated interventions separately we provide more insight into the interrelationships between these factors than previous studies we find that the level of technical trading profits and market uncertainty increase preceding and remain high during interventions especially announced and coordinated but decrease afterward a preliminary investigation of the possible role of a time varying risk premium around interventions cannot be rejected

the gender gap fertility and growth changes in fertility have long been recognized as important correlates of economic growth with the relationship between the level of fertility and the level of income per capita being one of the strongest observable correlations in cross country data this paper examines the linkages between fertility and growth theory the structure of the model is presented in sections on production couples decision making system dynamics and steady state equilibria the first component of the model is that increases in capital per worker raise womens relative wages since capital is more complementary to womens labor input than to mens the second component is that increasing womens relative wages reduces fertility by raising the cost of children more than household income finally lower fertility raises the level of capital per worker a positive feedback loop generates demographic transition a rapid decline in fertility accompanied by accelerated output growth

economic growth and pollutant emissions in tunisia an empirical analysis of the environmental kuznets curve abstract this paper investigates the relationship between economic growth and pollutant emissions for a small and open developing country tunisia during the period 1961 2004 the investigation is made on the basis of the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis using time series data and cointegration analysis carbon dioxide co 2 and sulfur dioxide so 2 are used as the environmental indicators and gdp as the economic indicator our results show that there is a long run cointegrating relationship between the per capita emissions of two pollutants and the per capita gdp an inverted u relationship between so 2 emissions and gdp has been found with income turning point approximately equals to 1200 constant 2000 prices or to 3700 in ppp constant 2000 prices however a monotonically increasing relationship with gdp is found more appropriate for co 2 emissions furthermore the causality results show that the relationship between income and pollution in tunisia is one of unidirectional causality with income causing environmental changes and not vice versa both in the short run and long run this implies that an emission reduction policies and more investment in pollution abatement expense will not hurt economic growth it could be a feasible policy tool for tunisia to achieve its sustainable growth in the long run

a multivariate cointegrated modelling approach in testing temporal causality between energy consumption real income and prices with an application to two asian ldcs unlike previous studies on the casual relationship between energy consumption and economic growth this paper illustrates how the finding of cointegration i e long term equilibrium relationship between these variables may be used in testing granger causality based on the most recent johansen s multiple cointegration tests preceded by various unit root or nonstationarity tests we test for cointegration between total energy consumption real income and price level of two asian ldcs thailand and sri lanka nonrejection of cointegration between variables rules out granger noncausality and implies at least one way of granger causality either unidirectional or bidirectional secondly by using a dynamic vector error correction model we then analyse the direction of granger causation and hence the within sample grangerexogeneity or endogeneity of each of the variables thirdly the relative strength of the causality is gauged through the dynamic variance decomposition technique by decomposing the total

a first empirical comparison of energy footprints embodied in trade mrio versus plum abstract the ecological footprint as an indicator that accounts for human demand on global bioproductivity sets out to quantify the impacts associated with consumption in a given country including the impacts associated with trade the national footprint accounts nfa by global footprint network gfn calculate trade embodied footprints by multiplying yield and embodied energy factors with mass volumes of traded goods in a product land use matrix plum this article compares energy footprints embodied in trade from and to the united kingdom in 2002 as calculated by the nfa plum with the results from a recently developed multi region input output model mrio for the uk although totals for imports and exports are comparable breaking down the results by economic sectors reveals large differences and hardly any correlation between the two methods the omission of trade in services especially transport services and upstream impacts of energy goods fossil fuels and the use of inappropriate embodied energy factors in the nfa plum method are identified as the main reasons for these differences in the light of the results it seems that a comprehensive footprint account of trade can better be achieved with an input output based approach i conclude that mrio models once fully developed will be particularly suitable in the future to estimate the ecological footprints of imports and exports of nations with the possibility to track their origin via inter industry linkages international supply chains and multi national trade flows

a new test of money income causality this paper investigates the prima facie causal relationship between money and income employing a methodology the multiple rank f test the results of which are invariant to monotonic transformations of all variables and robust over alternative distributions of the errors in contrast to prior functional form dependent parametric analyses evidence of prima facie causality between money and income is found for the 1970 88 time period this evidence is consistent with an elementary theoretical framework in which the direction and strength of causality is dependent upon the definition of money copyright 1992 by ohio state university press

is the us dollar a suitable anchor for the newly proposed gcc currency responses of inflation and non oil output growth from the gulf cooperation council gcc countries to monetary policy shocks from the united states us were estimated to determine whether there is evidence to support the us dollar as the anchor for the proposed unified currency a structural vector autoregression identified with short run restrictions was employed for each country with fed funds rate as the us monetary policy instrument non oil output growth and inflation the main results suggest that for inflation the gcc countries show synchronised responses to monetary policy shocks from the us which are similar to inflation in the us and for non oil output growth there is no clear indication that us monetary policy can be as effective for the gcc countries as it is domestically consequently importing us monetary policy via a dollar peg may guarantee only stable inflation for the gcc countries not necessarily stable non oil output growth if the non oil output response is made conscientiously and there are concerns over the dollar s ability to perform its role as a store of value a basket peg with both the us dollar and the euro may be a sound alternative as confirmed by the variance decomposition analysis of our augmented svar with a proxy for the european short term interest rate

growth dynamics and education spending the role of inherited tastes and abilities we present an overlapping generations model with endogenous growth in which children inherit human capital and standard of living aspirations from the previous generation adults evaluate their own consumption with respect to a baseline requirement which depends on their parents past consumption the interaction between these two intergenerational externalities leads to rich dynamics first starting with too high aspirations or with too low human capital will conduct the economy into a poverty trap second the growth rate and the savings rate are characterized by oscillations third a repelling cycle may delimit a basin of attraction around the balanced growth path this may lead countries starting with too high human capital to a boom followed by an irreversible decline c 2001 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

the impact of domestic trade on china s regional energy uses a multi regional input output modeling to systematically reveal how domestic trade impacts on china s regional energy uses an interprovincial input output modeling is carried out to address demand derived energy requirements for the regional economies in 2007 based on the recently available data both the energy uses embodied in final demand and interregional trade are investigated from the regional and sectoral insights significant net transfers of embodied energy flows are identified from the central and western areas to the eastern area via interregional trade shanxi is the largest energy producer and interregional embodied energy deficit receiver in contrast to guangdong as the largest energy user and surplus receiver by considering the impacts of interregional trade the energy uses of most eastern regions increase remarkably for instance shanghai hainan zhejiang beijing jiangsu and guangdong have their embodied energy requirements 87 49 19 97 13 64 12 60 6 46 and 6 38 times of their direct energy inputs respectively in contrast the embodied energy uses of some central and western regions such as inner mongolia shanxi xinjiang shaanxi and guizhou decrease largely the results help understand the hidden network linkages of interregional embodied energy flows and provide critical insight to amend china s current end reduction oriented energy policies by addressing the problem of regional responsibility transfer

responsibility and trade emission balances an evaluation of approaches this paper compares two concepts to evaluate the international responsibility of a country with respect to its emissions using a multi regional input output model we show that the trade emission balance and the responsibility emission balance yield the same result in practical work however a lack of data availability implies that the same technology assumption has been commonly adopted in that case also a third alternative exists which simply evaluates the emissions embodied in the trade balance of the country this third alternative yields the same results as the other two approaches at the aggregate level at the level of individual products however the results are clearly different and it turns out that the third alternative answers a different question that is it is appropriate for measuring the emission content of the products that cross the border in our empirical application we consider spain in 1995 and 2000 distinguishing nine different gases co 2 ch 4 n 2 o sf 6 hfcs pfcs so 2 nox and nh 3 c 2010 elsevier b v all rights reserved

how competitive are eu electricity markets an assessment of ets phase ii this paper studies the interactions between electricity and carbon allowance prices in the year ahead energy markets of france germany united kingdom and the nordic countries during phase ii of the eu ets var and granger causality methods are used to analyze causal interfaces whereas the volatility of electricity prices is studied with basic and asymmetric ar garch models among the main results the marginal rate at which carbon prices feed into electricity prices is shown to be ca 135 in the eex and nord pool markets where electricity and carbon prices display bidirectional causality and 109 in the uk therefore generators in these markets internalized the cost of freely allotted emission allowances into their electricity prices considerably more than the proportionate increase in costs justified by effective carbon intensity moreover electricity prices in france are found to granger cause the carbon price this study also shows how european electricity prices are deeply linked to coal prices among other factors both in terms of levels and volatility regardless of the underlying fuel mix and that coal was marginally more profitable than gas for electricity generation eu policies aimed at increasing the carbon price are likely to be crucial in limiting the externalities involved in the transition to a low carbon system

carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth panel data evidence from developing countries in this paper we test the environment kuznet s curve ekc hypothesis for 43 developing countries we suggest examining the ekc hypothesis based on the short and long run income elasticities that is if the long run income elasticity is smaller than the short run income elasticity then it is evident that a country has reduced carbon dioxide emissions as its income has increased our empirical analysis based on individual countries suggests that jordan iraq kuwait yemen qatar the uae argentina mexico venezuela algeria kenya nigeria congo ghana and south africa approximately 35 per cent of the sample carbon dioxide emissions have fallen over the long run that is as these economies have grown emissions have fallen since the long run income elasticity is smaller than the short run elasticity we also examine the ekc hypothesis for panels of countries constructed on the basis of regional location using the panel cointegration and the panel long run estimation techniques we find that only for the middle eastern and south asian panels the income elasticity in the long run is smaller than the short run implying that carbon dioxide emission has fallen with a rise in income

an econometric study of co2 emissions energy consumption income and foreign trade in turkey abstract this study attempts to empirically examine the dynamic causal relationships between carbon emissions energy consumption income and foreign trade in the case of turkey using the time series data for the period 1960 2005 this research tests the interrelationship between the variables using the bounds testing to cointegration procedure the bounds test results indicate that there exist two forms of long run relationships between the variables in the case of first form of long run relationship carbon emissions are determined by energy consumption income and foreign trade in the case of second long run relationship income is determined by carbon emissions energy consumption and foreign trade an augmented form of granger causality analysis is conducted amongst the variables the long run relationship of co2 emissions energy consumption income and foreign trade equation is also checked for the parameter stability the empirical results suggest that income is the most significant variable in explaining the carbon emissions in turkey which is followed by energy consumption and foreign trade moreover there exists a stable carbon emissions function the results also provide important policy recommendations

exports and growth is the export led growth hypothesis valid for provincial economies this paper re examines the export led growth hypothesis using provincial data unlike other studies that concentrate on country level data this study investigates the validity of the hypothesis for four largest provinces in korea seoul kyunggee kyungnam and pusan the causal implication of the export led growth hypothesis is generally supported for all provinces in the sample the framework of analysis is two and four variable autoregressive models that include provincial exports provincial output terms of trade and national output shocks granger causal orderings from exports to output growth are generally supported in bivariate causal models in multivariate models variance decompositions and impulse response functions further indicate that export growth has a significant impact on output growth for all provinces although a feedback effect from output to export growth appears in seoul and the kyungnam province

relative importance of foreign and domestic shocks in the venezuelan economy this paper uses a cholesky factorization in a var analysis to investigate the relative importance of foreign and domestic shocks in the venezuelan economy during the 1960 i2004 ii period the economy is assumed to be driven by foreign u s gdp and oil prices and domestic exchange rate fiscal monetary inflation and output orthogonal shocks as shown by the empirical evidence foreign shocks tend to be relatively more important than domestic shocks precisely oil price and u s gdp shocks tend to have permanent

exports investment efficiency and economic growth in ldc an empirical investigation this study seeks to analyse the relationship between exports and growth for 19 less developed countries it utilizes multivariate causality analysis based on the error correction model to address several important hypotheses the results indicate that when exports have a causal influence in the development process that in general this is the result of their effect on both efficiency and accumulation in addition improvements in output and capital accumulation in an economy seem to have just as much of an influence on exports as exports have on output and capital accumulation finally the growth process in east asia seems to be quite different from that in southeast asia

intelligence social mobility and growth this study develops a model where the allocation of human resources intergenerational social mobility and technological growth are jointly determined high growth endogenously increases the equilibrium return to innate cognitive ability and makes the allocation of individuals depend more on innate ability and less on social background a social allocation based on innate ability and high growth will thus reinforce each other implying the possibility of multiple endogenous growth equilibria

oil shocks and external balances abstract we provide estimates of the effects of demand and supply shocks in the global crude oil market on several measures of oil exporters and oil importers external balances including the oil trade balance the non oil trade balance the current account capital gains and changes in net foreign assets nfa first we show that the effect of oil demand and supply shocks on the merchandise trade balance and the current account which depending on the source of the shock can be large depends critically on the response of the non oil trade balance our results provide evidence of an intermediate degree of international financial integration second we document the presence of large and systematic valuation effects in response to these shocks valuation effects overall tend to cushion the effect of oil demand and supply shocks on the nfa positions of oil exporters and oil importers third we quantify the overall importance of global business cycle demand shocks as well as oil market specific demand and supply shocks for external balances

income uncertainty and the onset of the great depression income uncertainty and the onset of the great depression income uncertainty contributes substantially to explaining the fall in consumption that marks the onset of the great depression consistent estimates of the variance of income measure income uncertainty from 1921 30 and are produced using a linear moment model this series provides a statistical link between the large erratic swings in income uncertainty after september 1929 and the great crash in the stock market comparison of the behavior of income uncertainty in the 1920s to the pre world war i and post world war ii eras suggests that the experience after the great crash was historically unique i introduction the great depression of 1929 41 can be broken down into several phases i the initial recessionary phase from october 1929 to october 1930 ii the first two waves of bank failures between november 1930 and december 1931 iii the incipient recovery of late 1932 and the impending collapse in march 1933 iv the recovery of the financial system and the economy from the cyclical trough and v the recession of 1937 38 among others many researchers have presented well articulated theories and extensive empirical analyses for each phase of the depression friedman and schwartz 1963 hamilton 1987 gordon and wilcox 1981 and burbidge and harrison 1985 have examined the role of money and monetary policy during the depression brown 1956 examined the stance of fiscal policy during this period bernanke 1983b provided an explanation of the role of the financial crisis in the propagation of the great depression most of this research has focused on the events that turned a recession in 1929 30 that was not historically unprecedented that is it is comparable to the recession of 1920 22 into the deepest slide in the history of the american business cycle explanations of the depression s initial phase from late 1929 to october 1930 however are much less satisfactory meltzer 1976 and mishkin 1978 examined this period and concluded that the fall in output can be attributed largely to the stance of monetary policy and the stock market s impact on the household balance sheet respectively the remainder of the existing literature centers around a debate between temin 1976 1981 and schwartz 1981 that has produced no consensus about the role of monetary and nonmonetary factors in providing the impetus for the great depression hence the period sometimes called the mysterious first year 1 is the least understood of all the phases of the depression we think that recent advances in our understanding of the influence of income uncertainty on consumption expenditures may help explain the onset of the great depression the theoretical work of leland 1968 sandmo 1970 dreze and modigliani 1972 and others has shown that an increase in uncertainty about future income measured as the variance of income results in a reduction in current consumption expenditures under standard assumptions regarding risk preferences recently flacco and parker 1990 included an estimate of the standard deviation of income in a conventional specification of the consumption function from blinder and deaton 1985 and found that this measure of income uncertainty is indeed negatively related to consumption this result estimated using post world war ii data holds up to a number of statistical significance and specification tests romer 1990 examined the relationship between consumer expenditure proxied by various disaggregate spending series and stock market volatility during the first year and a half of the great depression expanding on bernanke s 1983a analysis of investment under uncertainty romer estimates a model of consumer spending on durable goods in the face of temporary uncertainty empirical evidence reveals that inclusion of the volatility of the stock market as a proxy for income uncertainty dramatically reduces forecast errors for consumption of durable goods in 1929 and 1930

a structural decomposition analysis of the emissions embodied in trade abstract the aim of this study is to quantify the driving forces behind the growth of carbon dioxide emissions embodied in trade eet the world input output database is used to estimate eet in 40 countries during 1995 2007 after which a structural decomposition analysis is applied to avoid biases in the results we have used the input output tables in previous year s prices and chained the outcomes in many developed countries the growth of emissions embodied in imports is much higher than the growth of emissions embodied in exports a key reason for this finding is the change in the structure of trade both in intermediate and in final products emerging economies like the bric countries have increased their share in production and trade at the expense of developed countries producers and consumers in developed countries have shifted towards importing a larger share of products from emerging countries this is the distinguishing feature that led to an increase of emissions embodied in imports for developed countries and an increase of emissions embodied in exports for emerging countries these results suggest policy makers to monitor eet more carefully and take the effects of trade on emissions into consideration

initial conditions and economic growth in the us states abstract this paper uses regression trees to examine the role of initial conditions in the economic development of the us states since 1950 we seek to ascertain whether existing differences in state per capita incomes reflect temporary deviations from a common stochastic steady state or the permanent effects of differences in initial conditions we assume that the states share a common set of economic fundamentals so that absent differences in initial conditions they ought to share a common steady state we allow the members of a large set of potentially important initial conditions to define convergence clubs among the states

how to measure labour market effects of immigration a review abstract this paper surveys available empirical evidence on labour market effects of immigration many different approaches have been used already to try to find out whether immigration hurts the labour market opportunities of natives no doubt new approaches will follow in the future as globalization will keep the migration issue on the agenda this literature review discusses the different approaches concentrating on both the methodology and the results at the end it tries to summarize available evidence

economic growth and transport energy consumption in the latin american and caribbean countries abstract transport is a strategic sector for economic development whilst being one of the most polluting sectors of the economy the latin american and caribbean countries have been consolidated as the region with significantly faster energy consumption growth this paper analyzes how the gdp per capita affects the transport energy consumption testing possible non linear relationships between variables a transport energy consumption function depending on gdp and its squared and cubed value is estimated for 22 lac countries over the period 1990 2014 the results support an n shaped curve while the elasticity values of transport energy consumption with respect to gdp per capita do not show a tendency to decrease in the long term fourteen lac countries show absolute coupling levels at the end of the period while the rest exhibit partial couplings likewise trade openness population density degree of urbanization and structural changes in the economy have positive effects on the transport energy consumption this paper proposes some energy efficiency measures to control the growing energy use and the promotion of biofuels and electric vehicles is also considered necessary to reduce the negative effects of transport energy use

determinants of co2 emissions in a small open economy abstract the aim of the paper is to explore the relationship between economic development and carbon dioxide co2 emissions for a small open and industrialized country austria we test whether an environmental kuznets curve relationship also holds for a single country rather than concentrating on panel or cross section data for a set of countries a cubic i e n shaped relationship between gdp and co2 emissions is found to fit the data most appropriately for the period 1960 1999 and a structural break is identified in the mid seventies due to the oil price shock furthermore two variables are additionally significant import shares reflecting the well known pollution haven hypothesis and the share of the tertiary service sector of total production gdp accounting for structural changes in the economy emission projections derived from this single country specification support the widely held opinion that significant policy changes are asked for when implementing the kyoto protocol in order to bring about a downturn in future carbon emissions

exports investments and economic development of pre accession countries of the european union an empirical investigation of bulgaria and romania this paper attempts to analyse the relationship between exports investments and economic development in two pre accession countries of the european union bulgaria and romania for investigation of this relationship a multivariate autoregressive var model is used the results of cointegration analysis showed that there is one cointegrated vector among exports investments and economic growth for the two countries granger causality tests based on error correction models ecm indicated that there is a strong granger causal relation between economic growth and exports as well as between investments and exports for the two countries in addition economic development and capital accumulation in an economy seem to have just as much of an influence on exports as exports have on capital accumulation and economic development

investigating the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis in vietnam this study investigates the existence of the environmental kuznets curve ekc hypothesis in vietnam during the period 1981 2011 to realize the goals of this study a pollution model was established applying the autoregressive distributed lag ardl methodology the results revealed that the pollution haven hypothesis does exist in vietnam because capital increases pollution in addition imports also increase pollution which indicates that most of vietnam s imported products are energy intensive and highly polluted however exports have no effect on pollution which indicates that the level of exports is not significant enough to affect pollution moreover fossil fuel energy consumption increases pollution while renewable energy consumption has no significant effect in reducing pollution furthermore labor force reduces pollution since most of vietnam s labor force is in the agricultural and services sectors which are less energy intensive than the industrial sector based on the obtained results the ekc hypothesis does not exist because the relationship between gdp and pollution is positive in both the short and long run

the dynamics of fertility family planning and female education in a developing economy unlike most empirical works on fertility analysis this study is the first attempt to analyse the dynamics of fertility and its determinants with a particular focus on the role played by female education and family planning programmes in the context of a traditional society the analysis is based on the application of the following dynamic time series techniques in a multivariate context cointegration vector error correction modelling and variance decompositions these dynamic tools are recently developed and hitherto untried in fertility analysis in the context of a poor developing economy such as india the results based on the above most recently developed methodology broadly indicate that in the complex dynamic interactions the importance of conventional structural hypothesis as a granger causal factor in bringing fertility down in the longer term cannot be denied however overall in the short to long term the findings appear to be more consistent with the recent ideational hypothesis

atheoretical macroeconometrics a critique abstract the spurious nature of the restrictions used to identify many macroeconometric models has led some researchers to advocate a style of econometric inquiry that is less dependent on prior theoretical restrictions of the sort that were central to the approach of the cowles commission this development which we call atheoretical macroeconometrics is summarized and evaluated in the current paper it is contrasted with an updated version of the cowles commission approach we conclude that while some of the exercises of atheoretical macroeconometrics are valid those that have attracted the most attention and appear the most innovative exogeneity testing impulse response analysis and policy analysis using estimated vector autoregressions are based on incorrect analysis

testing for granger s full causality a procedure is proposed to test for the existence of a fully causal relationship between two variables the method involves contrasting the probabilistic forecasting performance of a univariate and bivariate specification for the same variable y if there exists some theory or belief that x causes y and the addition of a variable x to the information set of a prequential forecasting system for a variable y reduces miscalibration and or the level of forecast uncertainty with respect y s distribution for the next period then a fully causal effect running from x to y may be inferred vector autoregression allows testing for feedback the method is to be applied to the issue of causality between the live cattle futures market and a major slaughter cattle cash market copyright 1992 by mit press

environmental kuznets curve for co2 in canada abstract according to the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis the relationship between per capita gdp and per capita pollutant emissions has an inverted u shape this implies that past a certain point economic growth may actually be profitable for environmental quality most studies on this subject are based on estimating fully parametric quadratic or cubic regression models while this is not technically wrong such an approach somewhat lacks flexibility since it may fail to detect the true shape of the relationship if it happens not to be of the specified form we use semiparametric and flexible nonlinear parametric modeling methods in an attempt to provide more robust inferences we find little evidence in favour of the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis our main results could be interpreted as indicating that the oil shock of the 1970s has had an important impact on progress towards less polluting technology and production

it pays to be green a premature conclusion it has been claimed that good environmental performance can improve firms economic performance however because of e g data limitations the methods applied in most previous quantitative empirical studies on effects of environmental performance on economic performance of firms suffer from several shortcomings we discuss these shortcomings and conclude that previously applied methods are unsatisfactory as support for a conclusion that it pays for firms to be green then we illustrate the consequences of these shortcomings by performing several regression analyses of the effect of environmental performance on economic performance using a panel data set of norwegian plants a pooled regression where observable firm characteristics like e g size or industry are controlled for confirms a positive effect of environmental performance on economic performance however the estimated positive effect could be due to omitted unobserved variables like management or technology when the regression model controls for unobserved plant heterogeneity the effect is generally no longer statistically significant hence although greener plants tend to perform economically better the analysis provides little support for the claim that it is because they are greener these empirical findings further indicate that a conclusion that it pays to be green is premature

consumption spending and output fluctuations a multi country study 1989 consumption spending and output fluctuations a multi country study applied economics vol 21 no 7 pp 891 900

investigation of the environmental kuznets curve for carbon emissions in malaysia do foreign direct investment and trade matter abstract environmental degradation has become a central issue of discussion among the economists and environmentalists in view of malaysia s position as one of the main contributors to co2 emissions in asia and its status as a fast growing economy it is vital therefore to conduct a study to identify the relationship between economic growth and co2 emissions for malaysia this study attempts to examine empirically the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis for malaysia in the presence of foreign direct investment and trade openness both in the short and long run for the period 1970 to 2008 the bounds testing approach and granger causality methodology are applied to test the interrelationships of the variables the results of our study indicate that the inverted u shaped relationship does exist between economic growth and co2 emission in both the short and long run for malaysia after controlling for two additional explanatory variables namely fdi and trade importantly the results of the study also provide some crucial policy recommendations to the policy makers

rules of the game during the international gold standard england and germany abstract the paper suggests an alternative framework to test hypotheses about central bank policy rules during the international gold standard this framework is inspired by work of mundell 1968 on optimal central bank policies and more recent literature on the theory of economic policy which stems from luca s 1976 critique empirical tests obtained from this approach are quite different from those appearing in the empirical literature on the gold standard the results of the tests indicate that the bank of england was not optimally targeting international gold flows inthe case of the rechsbank the hyphothesis that international gold flows were optimally targeted is not rejected at the 5 per level thus the data suggest that the reichsbank was following the rules of the game whereas the bank of england was not

the impact of growth energy and financial development on the environment in china a cointegration analysis this article aims to investigate the impact of financial development economic growth and energy consumption on environmental pollution in china from 1953 to 2006 using the autoregressive distributed lag ardl bounds testing procedure the main objective is to examine the long run equilibrium relationship between financial development and environmental pollution the results of the analysis reveal a negative sign for the coefficient of financial development suggesting that financial development in china has not taken place at the expense of environmental pollution on the contrary it is found that financial development has led to a decrease in environmental pollution it is concluded that carbon emissions are mainly determined by income energy consumption and trade openness in the long run moreover the findings confirm the existence of an environmental kuznets curve in the case of china

the nonmonetary effects of financial factors during the interwar period i introduction in a monetary history of the united states friedman and schwartz 1963 attributed the enormous decline in real output and prices during the great depression of 1929 1933 to an unprecedented fall in the supply of money while there is much support today for the view that money played an important role in this episode many economists feel that this variable alone does not provide a sufficiently complete explanation of the link between the chaotic conditions in the u s financial sector and aggregate output and prices bernanke 1983 contended in an influential paper that financial shocks had important nonmonetary effects on aggregate economic activity in addition to their effects via the supply of money rather than consider the 1929 33 episode outside of its context bernanke widened his sample to include the entire interwar period which he defined as january 1919 december 1941 the major purpose of this paper is to present empirical evidence on the importance of the nonmonetary effects of financial factors in explaining fluctuations in real output and prices during the interwar period we define the interwar period as august 1922 june 1938 by omitting from our sample a few years immediately following world war i and immediately preceding world war ii we avoid the potential problems connected with war related government expenditures and autonomous gold flows discussed in joines 1985 our interwar period corresponds closely to the four peacetime cycles identified by firestone 1960 the theoretical literature on the nonmonetary effects of financial factors focuses on two related but distinct aspects 1 first studies by bernanke and blinder 1988 williamson 1987a 1987b bernanke and gertler 1987 and scheinkman and weiss 1986 demonstrate that the efficiency with which banks perform their intermediation function is an independently important determinant of the level of real economic activity second bernanke and gertler 1989 1990 gertler and hubbard 1988 and calomiris and hubbard 1990 focus on the effects of shocks to borrowers net worth positions on aggregate economic activity this approach suggests that exogenous shocks to borrowers net worth may be a source of economic fluctuations therefore for example to the extent that a deflation is unanticipated it is likely to erode borrowers net worth and thereby adversely affect aggregate economic activity beginning with fisher 1933 this deflation story has played an important role in studies such as bernanke 1983 hamilton 1987 and bernanke and james 1990 that attempt to explain the great depression in evaluating the effects of financial sector shocks during the great depression bernanke 1983 argued that in addition to the traditional monetary effects of adverse shocks to financial intermediation stressed by friedman and schwartz 1963 these shocks increased the cost of credit intermediation which in turn led to credit contraction rejection of otherwise profitable projects and subsequent falls in output to test this hypothesis bernanke included the deposits of failing banks and the liabilities of failing businesses as joint proxies for the cost of credit intermediation in a barro 1977 type output equation that also included unanticipated money both the deposits of failing banks and liabilities of failing businesses were found to be significant moreover dynamic simulations of the path of output for the period between mid 1930 and march 1933 accounted for substantially more of the actual decrease in output than was captured when only unanticipated money was included in the output equation in place of the joint proxies bernanke also used the yield differential between baa corporate and long term u s government bonds as a proxy for credit intermediation costs in all cases entry of the credit cost proxies significantly increased the percentage of the decline in output that was captured

relative price variability and inflation abstract using italian data from 1954 to 1983 it is found that relative price variability and inflation are positively correlated only during the 1970s and the early 1980s when their relationship appears to be largely induced by movements in the oil price rather than by aggregate demand shocks this result is consistent with the findings of fischer 1981 fischer 1982 for the u s and germany although in contrast to the evidence for these two countries no relationship can be detected between unexpected inflation and relative price variability furthermore the comparison between the three countries provides substantial support for the hypothesis tentatively advanced by fischer 1982 that the correlation between relative price variability and inflation is enhanced by monetary accommodation of real shocks there is also evidence that in italy both variables have been considerably affected by exchange rate movements

granger causality real factor prices and employment a re appraisal with uk data this paper reports the results produced by applying tests for granger causality of post war u k real wage and employment data the results suggest that real wages granger cause employment with no feedback this result is robust to the inclusion of real materials prices the results are not robust to changes in the sample period real wages and employment appear independent with data up to 1977 4 the oscillations of real wages between 1976 and 1978 when a stern wage policy was implemented and dismantled are responsible for these different results this explains the contradictory results reported in previous studies

public ends private means abstract this paper is an empirical investigation into the practices of the second bank of the united states during the decade preceding andrew jackson s veto of the bank a new monthly data set derived from financial publications and second bank records of the time is employed to investigate whether the bank operated in the public interest as argued by its supporters or to further its own monopolistic interests as argued by its detractors the paper analyzes the role played by this early central bank and provides an intriguing example of one experiment in the private provision of public goods

are regional incomes in the usa converging a non linear perspective christopoulos d k and tsionas e g 2007 are regional incomes in the usa converging a non linear perspective regional studies 41 525 530 this article deviates from the current practice of regional convergence by allowing output convergence to follow a non linear process in this scenario all standard linear unit root tests have low power thus frequently leading to misguided conclusions in light of this a unit root test based on a non linear model is adopted which tests the null hypothesis of a unit root against a non linear alternative the findings overwhelmingly support the tendency of us regions to converge over time christopoulos d k et tsionas e g 2007 les revenus regionaux aux etats unis est ce qu ils convergent un point de vue non lineaire regional studies 41 525 530 l article s ecarte de la pratique actuelle de la convergence regionale en permettant a la convergence du rendement de suivre un processus non lineaire dans ce cas ci tout test lineaire standard de la racine unit

using panel data to evaluate growth theories this paper formulates a method for using panel data to compare endogenous growth theories that predict cross country differences in trend growth rates with exogenous growth models that predict parallel balanced growth paths using this method the paper rejects theories that predict even small differences in trend growth rates for a sample of rich countries and a sample of countries with well educated populations exogenous growth theories may thus characterize the growth experiences of these countries by contrast the paper cannot reject theories that predict widely different trend growth rates for a sample of countries with poorly educated populations copyright 1998 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

convertibility risk and dollarization in mexico a vectorautoregressive analysis abstract using a general equilibrium model of dollarization in mexico i find a negative and significant relationship between the expected rate of peso depreciation and the dollarization ratio this result seemingly anomalous compared to previous studies of currency substitution is attributed to the convertibility risk associated with holding mexdollars several alternative explanations are either rejected or found to be of secondary importance the results imply that traditional methodologies used to test currency substitution and inferences drawn about the phenomenon should be revised in cases similar to mexico

co2 emissions and economic activity heterogeneity across countries and non stationary series this paper explores the relationship between co2 emissions and economic activity for 31 countries 28 oecd brazil china and india during the period 1950 to 2006 using cointegration analysis single country long run relationships are estimated and equality in the functional form the parameters and the turning point when appropriate are rejected this confirms the relevance of considering the differences among countries in the relationship between air pollution and economic activity to avoid wrong estimations and conclusions

the changing of the relationships between carbon footprints and final demand panel data evidence for 40 major countries abstract global warming and environmental pollution have led many countries to begin to implement measures to reduce the use of fossil fuels however emissions reductions may have been reached because of the displacement of emissions intensive production the objective of this study is to analyze the relationships between the emissions caused by countries from a demand point of view the carbon footprints and the demand for goods and services in these countries and especially in the european countries with this aim a two step process was carried out firstly carbon footprints were calculated during the 1995 2009 period secondly the ekc hypothesis between these carbon footprints and the total final demands were tested by using panel data and a multilevel mixed effects model the results show that the ekc hypothesis is not supported when considering carbon footprints with respect to final demand it is also shown that carbon footprints are slightly increasing with respect to final demand beyond proportionality the carbon footprint elasticities are different between countries their values increasing with the final demand per capita of countries

feedback between wholesale and consumer price inflation a reexamination of the evidence this paper reevaluates the theoretical and empirical debate surrounding the bivariate time series relationship between wholesale and consumer price inflation empirical work by engle 3 guthrie 7 and silver and wallace s w 9 is based on a one sided distributed lag model running from wholesale prices to consumer prices colclough and lange c l 1 and granger robins and engle gr e 6 criticize this specification arguing that it contradicts the standard theory of derived demand whereby changes in demand for final goods cause changes in demand for primary goods s w s finding that consumer prices fail to granger cause wholesale price appears to c l and gr e to reject flexible price demand led models in favor of cost push markup models of consumer price inflation in this paper we demonstrate that the patterns of feedback in u s data are consistent with standard flexible price models of derived demand with strong aggregate demand elements first using geweke s 4 linear feedback methodology we confirm the general pattern of feedback found in previous studies the incremental predictive content of wholesale prices for consumer prices is approximately twice that of consumer prices for wholesale prices however half of the feedback between the two series is purely contemporaneous we find this pattern to be robust in a larger system that includes money as a proxy for aggregate demand the large contemporaneous feedback implies that any structural inferences will rely heavily on maintained assumptions concerning the contemporaneous error structure in section iii we present a stylized model of price determination in an economy with two stages of production supply disturbances in the primary goods market affect wholesale prices and with a lag consumer prices thus the model predicts feedback from wholesale to consumer prices whenever supply disturbances are present the key insight from the model is that the converse does not hold in the presence of demand disturbances the demand for primary goods depends not on current or past retail demand but on expected future demand even with

energy requirements of households in brazil abstract in this study we determine the total direct plus indirect energy requirements of a given set of brazilian households we use a generalized input output model in order to calculate the energy embodied in goods and services purchased by households of different income level in 11 capital cities of brazil our results show that on average the total energy intensity of household expenditure increases with income level although there is a considerable spread in energy intensities within income classes as well as disparities between regions of the country the total yearly average energy requirement per household in brazil in 1995 96 was 173 6 gj 61 of which was indirect with 32 8 gj for the lower income level 66 of which was indirect and 602 2 gj for the higher income level 62 of which was indirect of this total average energy requirement 76 was required for only three consumption categories utilities 31 mobility 28 and shelter 17 this analysis calls for the attention that has to be given not only to the direct energy consumption as motor fuels and electricity for example but also to the consumption categories that encompass an important part of the indirect energy requirement of households in capital cities in brazil

bounds testing approach to analysis of the environment kuznets curve hypothesis abstract this paper examines the long run and the dynamic temporal relationships between economic growth energy consumption population density trade openness and carbon dioxide co 2 emissions in brazil china egypt japan mexico nigeria south korea and south africa based on the environment kuznets curve ekc hypothesis we employ the ardl bounds test to cointegration and cusum and cusumsq tests to ensure cointegration and parameter stability the estimated results show that the inverted u shaped ekc hypothesis holds in japan and south korea in the other six countries the long run relationship between economic growth and co 2 emissions follows an n shaped trajectory and the estimated turning points are much higher than the sample mean in addition the results indicate that energy consumption granger causes both co 2 emissions and economic growth in all the countries our results are consistent with previous studies that show that there is no unique relationship between energy consumption population density economic growth trade openness and the environment across countries

money real interest rates and output a reinterpretation of postwar u s data this paper reexamines both monthly and quarterly u s postwar data to investigate if the observed comovements between money real interestrates prices and output are compatible with the money real interest output link suggested by existing monetary theories of output which include both keynesian and equilibrium models the major empirical findings are these 1 in both monthly and quarterly data we cannot reject the hypothesis that the ex ante real rate is exogenous or granger causally prior in the context of a four variable system which contains money prices nominal interest rates and industrial production 2 in quarterly data there is significantly more information con tained in either the levels of expected inflation or the innovationof this variable for predicting future output given current and lagged output than in any other variable examined money actualinflation nominal interest rates or ex ante real rates the effect of an inflation innovation on future output is unambiguously negative the first result casts strong doubt on the empirical importance of existing monetary theories of output which imply that money should have a causal role on the ex ante real rates the second result would appear incompatible with most demand driven models of output in light of these results we propose an alternative structural model which can account for the major dynamic interactions among the variables this model has two central features i output is unaffected by money supply and ii the money supply process is motivated by short run price stability this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

intermediate monetary targets and macroeconomic fluctuations it is investigated whether the choice of intermediate target has altered macroeconomic fluctuations and whether the observed changes are consistent with predictions from economic theory since implications from the theoretical literature focus on the effects of structural disturbances an empirical analysis must identify these effects the structural vector autoregressive var technique estimates structural disturbances using restrictions from standard macroeconomic theory based on descriptions of actual targeting procedures by insiders to federal reserve policy decisions the intermediate target for the united states is identified as the interest rate from 1951 to 1969 and money from 1970 to 1986 var models are estimated over each subsample to assess whether the estimated structural disturbances cause endogenous variables to behave as economic theory predicts tests are also performed to assess whether or not the targeting rule affects the variance of endogenous variables attributable to structural sh

policy inference using var models policy inference using var models i introduction macroeconomics has a long tradition of examining the response of macroeconomic variables to shocks in alternative policy measures much recent work in this area has been based on the empirical regularities between variables found in vector autoregressive var models the var results in turn have been used to investigate the impact of changes in different policy variables var modeling procedures have been used to test the relative effects of changes in money interest rates broad credit measures and fiscal actions on economic activity 1 moreover because var analysis does not require the specification of an underlying theoretical model it also has been used to study the linkages among macroeconomic variables across national borders 2 although debate over the alleged atheoretical nature of vars continues for example see cooley and leroy 1985 leamer 1985 and braun and mittnik 1985 var models are frequently used for policy analysis how the dynamic specification of a var model is generated and how the dynamics may influence the resulting policy recommendation is the subject of this study while modeling the dynamic relationship among macro variables is a longstanding subject relatively few studies have tested for the effects of alternative lag structures on a given model to our knowledge there has been little systematic analysis of the sensitivity of policy effects to changes in the lag structure of a given var model 3 in this paper we investigate this specification problem using a simple four variable var model similar in spirit to sims s 1980b 4 this model consists of quarterly observations for money real output prices and nominal short term interest rates for the period 1960 through 1985 in selecting this model we opt to focus on the impacts of lag specification on policy inferences derived from a given var model in doing so we ignore the effects of altering the specification in terms of variables included or excluded this approach seems reasonable however since our purpose is to investigate the effects of lag structure not specification problems in general to compare the policy conclusions derived from the alternative dynamic structures we use six different lag selection criteria these criteria briefly described in section ii vary the bias efficiency tradeoff inherent in such statistical procedures section iii discusses the estimation of the var model using the alternative dynamic structures comparison of policy recommendations derived from the models is presented in section iv using variance decompositions anticipating that discussion the evidence from our model suggests that policy recommendations are very sensitive to changes in the dynamic structure conclusions close the paper in section v ii lag length selection procedures many previous researchers have chosen to impose equal lag lengths on each of the variables in their models 5 this approach produces parameter estimates that may suffer from bias or inefficiency depending on whether the model is under or over parameterized we use six different approaches to determine the lag specification five are based on statistical criteria with the exact criteria listed in table i for comparability we also employ the nonstatistical ad hoc procedure of arbitrarily fixing the maximum lag on all variables to be four quarters one of the statistical approaches used is the standard f test 6 the f test imposes zero restrictions on lags beyond some point and tests this restricted model against a more general lag structure the f statistic is calculated sequentially until adding another lag does not statistically improve the fit of the model two of the selection procedures use a mean squared error criterion these are mallows s 1973 c sub p statistic and akaike s 1970

econometric policy evaluation note for successive values of the endogenous variables y with the x treated as deterministic forcing variables here 0 is a parameter vector and the et are random shocks lucas correctly observed that such a formulation is inconsistent with a view of agents as optimizers except in special cases in which the future is irrelevant to present decisions it makes no sense to think of agents as optimizing if they know that their budget constraints are liable to shift arbitrarily i e in a way which is not characterized probabilistically as government policy changes lucas was led to augment the foregoing equation by adding to the system a government policy function

international transmission of aggregate shocks under fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes united kingdom france and germany 1959 to 1985 abstract this paper analyzes the transmission of aggregate shocks between the usa and three major european economies the uk france and germany under fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes using time series techniques short run linkages are investigated in the context of vector autoregression models while long run relations are analyzed by testing for cointegration empirical findings indicate that flexible exchange rates have not in general completely insulated domestic economies from foreign shocks and that the degree of insulation and interdependence across exchange rate regimes and over the long and short runs differs substantially across the european countries

autonomy switching regimes and super exogeneity abstract in recent years the concept of switching regimes and super exogeneity has played a dominant part in the econometric debate the relevance of this discussion for the theories of economic policy is developed by lucas sargent and others in this article the very close parallel to the debate about autonomy in the 1940s is shown

an empirical characterization of the dynamic effects of police spending on violent and property crime the study estimates the dynamic effects of shocks to police expenditures on measures of violent and property crime rates using annual u s state level data for the period 1960 2015 we employ a structural panel var model and achieve identification by imposing the restriction that police spending responds to structural shocks to crime with at least a lag of 1 year results indicate that a shock to police spending leads to a persistent and significant decreases in violent and property crime rates and b significant and persistent negative impacts on crime rates in periods of high crime but little impacts in periods of low crime variance decompositions show that shocks to police spending account for moderate to large proportions of the variability of u s state level crime rates our findings are robust across separate measures of violent and property crime rates as well as to the inclusion of additional variables to the baseline panel var model jel k42

the long run and causal analysis of energy growth openness and financial development on carbon emissions in turkey abstract the aim of this paper is to examine the causal relationship between financial development trade economic growth energy consumption and carbon emissions in turkey for the 1960 2007 period the bounds f test for cointegration test yields evidence of a long run relationship between per capita carbon emissions per capita energy consumption per capita real income the square of per capita real income openness and financial development the results show that an increase in foreign trade to gdp ratio results an increase in per capita carbon emissions and financial development variable has no significant effect on per capita carbon emissions in the long run these results also support the validity of ekc hypothesis in the turkish economy it means that the level of co 2 emissions initially increases with income until it reaches its stabilization point then it declines in turkey in addition the paper explores causal relationship between the variables by using error correction based granger causality models

convergence of inflationary shocks evidence from the caribbean in this paper we aim to shed some light on the inflation dynamics in the caribbean we analyse the inflation rates for twelve countries using various time series methods the results show that the inflation rates are mean reverting processes and that there is evidence of a convergence club in inflation rates within the area which contradicts previous studies our contribution implies a high degree of similarity in the dynamics of our target countries inflation rates

an investigation of ricardian equivalence in a common trends model abstract to empirically discriminate between ricardian and non ricardian behaviour we have to use a method that distinguishes between expected and unexpected as well as permanent and transitory changes in taxes and government consumption one method that provides these distinctions between different types of changes is the common trends framework used in this paper which is a var model with cointegrating constraints in the empirical study of us data there is some support for the ricardian hypothesis but there are also some deviations from its predictions however the differences do not lend support to a keynesian view of budget deficits but rather to the view of expansionary fiscal contractions this can be motivated theoretically by uncertainty about future taxes in combination with prudent households

oil shocks and stock volatility new evidence via a bayesian graph based var approach abstractthis article examines the temporal dependence between three oil shocks and realized volatility in the stock markets of g20 countries between 1994 and 2019 by applying a novel graphical b

adjustment costs and pricing to market theory and evidence abstract this paper develops an adjustment cost model of pricing to market the model consists of a monopolist who supplies an identical nondurable good to two foreign markets it is shown that the degree of pricing to market increases with the relative importance of the transitory component in exchange rates customs data from 1978 through 1987 on u s and canadian imports of seven german commodities are used to estimate the model s parameters and test its over identifying restrictions

how money affects real output this paper decomposes the money stock into constituent parts to examine the relationship between monetary variables and real economic activity using vector autoregression for 1954 to 1979 the first decomposition reveals that innovations in money multiplier growth rates are approximately three times more influential in determining real output growth than are monetary base growth innovations the second decomposition includes components of the money multiplier to identify the importance of actions of the public the banking community and the monetary authority the results suggest that the public and the fed had a significant impact on influencing real output growth copyright 1989 by ohio state university press

energy consumption pollutant emissions and economic growth in south africa article i nfo article history this paper examines the long run and the causal relationship between economic growth pollutant emissions and energy consumption for south africa for the period 1965 2006 in a multivariate framework which includes labour and capital as additional variables using the bound test approach to cointegration we found a short run as well as a long run relationship among the variables with a positive and a statistically significant relationship between pollutant emissions and economic growth further applying a modified version of the granger causality test we also found a unidirectional causality running from pollutant emissions to economic growth from energy consumption to economic growth and from energy consumption to co2 emissions all without a feedback the econometric evidence suggests that south africa has to sacrifice economic growth or reduce its energy consumption per unit of output or both in order to reduce pollutant emissions in the long run however it is possible to meet the energy needs of the country and at the same time reduce co2 emissions by developing energy alternatives to coal the main source of co2 emissions however the econometric results upon which the policy suggestions are made should be interpreted with care as they may not be sufficiently robust enough to categorically warrant the choice of an unpalatable policy option by south africa

shocks effects of macroeconomic variables on natural gas consumption in nigeria structural var with sign restrictions abstract this paper has examined the transmission of shocks from macroeconomic variables namely money supply inflation exchange rate and real gdp onto natural gas consumption using structural var svar model with sign restrictions the results revealed that both in the short run and long run natural gas consumption responds significantly to the shocks emanating from money supply and real gdp while its response to inflation shock is significant only in the short run but exchange rate shock is not significant however money supply has contributed greater proportion of the shocks followed by the real gdp inflation and exchange rate in the ordering of the variance decomposition the paper recommends that nigerian authorities adjust the monetary policy tools towards regulating the money supply and checking the inflation rate to ensure increased demand for natural gas and sustained economic growth on the response of natural gas consumption to the shock in the exchange rate since the shock is positive though insignificant it implies that depreciation of the exchange rate can discourage the demand for foreign exchange imports and boost the local production which would reciprocally lead to more natural gas consumption and improved growth in the country

macroeconomic activity and monetary policy actions some preliminary evidence monetary policy is conducted through open market operations loans at the discount window and changes in the reserve requirement structure the purpose of this paper is to formally investigate the notion that the effect of changes in reserve requirement ratios is different from the effect of other policy tools this is accomplished by decomposing the monetary base into those changes caused by changes in reserve requirement ratios and those caused by other monetary policy actions some preliminary evidence suggesting differential real effects from the policy tools is provided copyright 1992 by ohio state university press

macroeconomics and agriculture in tunisia this article aims to analyse the impact of changes in the monetary policy and the exchange rate on agricultural supply prices and exports the methodology used is based on the multivariate cointegration approach ten variables are considered interest and exchange rates money supply inflation agricultural output and input prices agricultural supply and exports income and the rate of commercial openness the sample period covers annual data from 1967 to 2002 due to the short sample period two subsystems are considered first long run relationships are identified in each subsystem second both subsystems are merged in order to calculate the short run dynamics the results indicate that changes in macroeconomic variables have an effect on the agricultural sector but the reverse effect does not hold

monetary shocks in the g 6 countries is there a puzzle les auteurs cherchent a clarifier la dynamique du mecanisme de transmission de la politique monetaire l identification des chocs de politique monetaire est au coeur de ce genre d analyse divers chercheurs ont reussi recemment a isoler de tels chocs en imposant des restrictions de suridentification a des modeles vectoriels autoregressifs var

regional convergence and common stochastic long run trends a re examination of the us regional data the paper utilizes modern econometric techniques organized around i 1 and cointegration analysis to examine the number of common stochastic long run trends in regional incomes and assess the hypothesis of regional convergence for the us over the period 1929 1997 time series evidence is conflicting but tends to indicate the presence of too many common stochastic long run trends thus providing no support for the convergence hypothesis l article emploie des techniques econometriques recentes basees sur des analyses i 1 et cointegree afin d examiner le nombre de tendances communes stochastiques a long terme des revenus regionaux et d evaluer l hypothese qui avance la notion de la convergence regionale aux etats unis sur la periode qui va de 1929 a 1997 des preuves presentees en serie temporelle s averent contradictoires mais semblent indiquer la presence d un nombre trop eleve de tendances communes stochastiques a long terme ce qui ne vient pas a l appui de l hypothese qui avance la notion de conv

real returns on government debt a general equilibrium quantitative exploration we extend and apply computable general equilibrium methods to the study of economies with both aggregate uncertainty and uninsured household specific uncertainty in our economies the government issues two types of assets a small denomination non interest bearing asset which we call currency and a large denomination interest bearing asset which we call t bills we find that a real interest rate behavior similar to that observed in the u s can be sustained as equilibrium behavior in our class of economies we also find that policy induced real interest rate changes that are perceived as being permanent have significant real effects and that these effects take a few years to be fully realized

the impact of commodity price shocks in the presence of a trading relationship a gvar analysis of the nafta this paper investigates the commodity price shocks and monetary shocks in the region covered by the north american free trade agreement nafta using a global vector autoregression gvar approach our focus is on commodity price shocks which impact both directly through the aggregate price level as well as through monetary policy related aggregates such as short term interest rates we first contrast the response of the real economy to commodity price shocks in two periods 1983q2 2015q2 and 1994q1 2015q2 where the beginning of the second sample coincides with a statistically identified structural break as well as the introduction of nafta the results indicate that the commodity price shocks such as for oil and metal have a bigger impact on the real economy after nafta came into force withmetal prices having a larger quantitative impact on output in comparison to oil prices next we investigatewhether these changes have different implications for the impact of domestic monetary shocks in the three countries we find that while the post nafta period is characterized by a stronger domestic monetary policy response to commodity price shocks the response to monetary shocks per se varies in the two time periods in particular u s monetary policy as reflected in shocks to short term interest rates has a weaker influence in the post nafta period overall the influence of global commodity price shocks in the region relative to domestic monetary shocks is greater in the post nafta period

us regional income convergence a spatial econometric perspective rey s j and montouri b d 1999 us regional income convergence a spatial econometric perspective reg studies 33 143 156 this study reconsiders the question of us regional economic income convergence from a spatial econometric perspective recently developed methods of exploratory spatial data analysis provide new insights on the geographical dynamics of us regional income growth patterns over the 1929 94 period strong patterns of both global and local spatial autocorrelation are found throughout the study period and the magnitude of global spatial autocorrelation is also found to exhibit strong temporal co movement with regional income dispersion a spatial econometric analysis of the familiar baumol specification reveals strong evidence of misspecification due to ignored spatial error dependence because of this dependence shocks originating in one state can spillover into surrounding states potentially complicating the transitional dynamics of the convergence process rey s j et montouri

money growth volatility and the macroeconomy this study analyzes the effects of variability in money growth on the macroeconomy for the period 1961 1 1984 4 within the context of a vector autoregressive model that contains variables typically included in a small macro model variance decompositions and historical decompositions are used to assess the impact of money growth variability the variance decompositions suggest substantial effects of money growth variability on the long term interest rate output and the price level historical decompositions for 1979 4 1984 4 suggest substantial effects of money growth variability on the interest rate and output but smaller effects on the price level are found copyright 1988 by ohio state university press

the relative importance of foreign and domestic disturbances for aggregate fluctuations in the open economy switzerland 1964 1981 abstract this paper studies whether the advent of floating exchange rates served to insulate switzerland from economic shocks of foreign origin it estimates a vector autoregression comprising four swiss and three world aggregate time series and interprets the results in terms of the properties of the vector moving average representation implied by the estimates the chief finding is that foreign shocks explain most of the systematic variation of the swiss variables in both regimes

unemployment and infant health times series evidence from the state of tennessee this is the first study that decomposes unemployment into its structural and cyclical components and investigates their impact on income distribution controlling for the influence of inflation increases in structural unemployment have a substantial

stochastic trends and economic fluctuations in a small open economy in this paper we describe how restricted vector autoregressions can be employed to examine the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations we show how cointegration restrictions can be used to identify a var system with common stochastic trends subject to transitory and permanent changes in average growth and how we may investigate the system s responses to permanent shocks i e to innovations to the trends theoretical cointegration vectors are derived from a small open economy growth model for terms of trade real gdp real consumption and real investments applying these methods to swedish annual data 1875 1986 we find that permanent real supply shocks account for most of the fluctuations in gdp even in the short run

time series representations of economic variables and alternative models of the labour market accepting the hypothesis that the time series facts of the aggregate labour market may be summarized by the linear autoregressive and moving average representations of wages prices unemployment and interest rates implies that a useful theory ought to lead to predictions about these representations following this approach this paper first catalogues many of the time series facts about the aggregate labour market and then compares them against alternative models of the labour market based on the intertemporal substitution and staggered contract hypotheses