the carbon footprint of uk households 1990 2004 a socio economically disaggregated quasi multi regional input output model this paper presents a socio economically disaggregated framework for attributing co2 emissions to people s high level functional needs based around a quasi multi regional input output qmrio model the study in theory takes into account all co2 emissions that arise from energy used in production of goods and services to satisfy uk household demand whether the emissions occur in the uk or abroad results show that co2 emissions attributable to households were 15 above 1990 levels in 2004 and that although absolute decoupling occurred between household expenditure and co2 during the uk s switch from coal to gas in the early 1990s since then only slight relative decoupling is evident the proportion of co2 that arises outside uk borders in support of uk consumption is rising and reducing these emissions is particularly problematic in a global trading system investigation into the carbon footprint of different segments of the uk population shows wide variation the segment with the highest carbon footprint emits 64 more co2 than the segment with the lowest results show that recreation and leisure are responsible for over one quarter of co2 emissions in a typical uk household in 2004 we conclude that expanding lifestyle aspirations are significant factors in driving household co2 emissions but the study also emphasizes that attention must be paid to the infrastructures and institutions that result in considerable amounts of co2 being locked up in basic household activities through which people meet their everyday needs for subsistence protection and communication with family and friends the findings highlight the sheer scale of the challenge facing uk policy makers and suggest that policies should be targeted towards segments of society responsible for the highest carbon footprints

institutional determinants of success among forestry based carbon sequestration projects in sub saharan africa summary this paper contributes to the debate on the economic and social implications of carbon forestry through the study of 42 programs in africa using carbon offset payments to fund tree planting activities such projects may be understood as multi layered collective action problems growing trees for carbon offsets requires not only international financial incentives to plant trees but also local institutions to monitor impose sanctions and distribute benefits consistent with economic theories large projects appear to realize economies of scale contrary to expectations community based projects on lower quality sites often successfully generate and sell offsets while private for profit initiatives appear susceptible to collapse

long run welfare under externalities in consumption leisure and production a case for happy degrowth vs unhappy growth in this paper we contribute to the debate on the relationship between growth and well being by examining an endogenous growth model where we allow for externalities in consumption leisure and production we analyze three regimes a decentralized economy where each household makes isolated choices without considering their external effects a planned economy where a myopic planner fails to recognize both leisure and consumption externalities but recognizes production externalities and a planned economy with a fully informed planner we first compare the balanced growth paths under the three regimes and then we numerically investigate the transition to the optimal balanced growth path we provide a number of findings first in a decentralized economy growth or labor or both are greater than in the regime with a fully informed planner and hence are sub optimal from a welfare standpoint second a myopic intervention which overlooks consumption and leisure externalities leads to more growth and labor than in both the decentralized and the fully informed regime third we provide a case for happy degrowth a transition to the optimal balanced growth path that is associated with downscaling of production a reduction in private consumption and an ongoing increase in leisure and well being

local adoption of new forestry technologies an example from pakistan s northwest frontier province abstract technology transfer is an important but previously unexamined topic for forestry activities in international development projects this paper uses household economics and an example from pakistan s northwest frontier province to inquire into the characteristics most likely to explain household and community adoption of new forestry technologies household attitudes toward risk and household expectations of the uncertain gains from adoption are critical adopting households probably have higher incomes and greater endowments of land labor and capital good extension foresters are also important but their personal character may be even more important than their technical expertise

ecological macroeconomic models assessing current developments our society faces a dilemma while continued economic growth is ecologically unsustainable low or negative rates of economic growth are accompanied by adverse social impacts hence there is a need for macroeconomic tools that can help identify socially sustainable post growth pathways the emerging field of ecological macroeconomics aims to address this need and features a number of new macroeconomic modelling approaches this article provides 1 a review of modelling developments in ecological macroeconomics based on the literature and interviews with researchers and 2 an analysis of how the different models incorporate policy themes from the post growth literature twenty two ecological macroeconomic models were analysed and compared to eight policy themes it was found that environmental interactions and the monetary system were treated most comprehensively themes of income inequality work patterns indicators of well being and disaggregated production were addressed with less detail while alternative business models and cross scale interactions were hardly addressed overall the combination of input output analysis with stock flow consistent modelling was identified as a promising avenue for developing macroeconomic models for a post growth economy however due to the wide interpretation of what the economy entails future research will benefit from employing a range of approaches

a hybrid seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average and quantile regression for daily food sales forecasting abstract in the retail stage of a food supply chain food waste and stock outs occur mainly due to inaccurate forecasting of sales which leads to incorrect ordering of products the time series sales in food retail industry are characterized by high volatility and skewness which vary by time so the interval forecasts are required by the retail companies to set appropriate inventory policy reorder point or safety stock level this paper attempts to develop a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with external variables sarimax model to forecast daily sales of a perishable food the process of fitting a sarimax model in this study involves i the development of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average sarima model and ii combining the sarima model and the demand influencing factors using linear regression as the sarimax using multiple linear regression sarima mlr model produces only mean forecast the possibility of underestimation and overestimation is very high due to high service level peak and sparse sales in food retail industry therefore a hybrid sarima and quantile regression sarima qr is developed to construct high and low quantile predictions instead of extrapolating the quantiles from the mean point forecasts of sarima mlr model based on the assumption of normality the sarima qr model directly forecasts the quantiles the developed sarima mlr and sarima qr models are applied in modeling and forecasting of sales data i e the daily sales of banana from a discount retail store in lower bavaria germany the results show that the sarima mlr and qr models yield better forecasts at out sample data when compared to seasonal naive forecasting traditional sarima and multi layered perceptron neural network mlpnn models unlike the sarima mlr model the sarima qr model provides better prediction intervals and a deep insight into the effects of demand influencing factors for different quantiles

yes in my backyard spatial differences in the valuation of forest services and local co benefits for carbon markets in mexico forests provide many and large benefits including cost efficient climate change mitigation however international carbon markets have not stimulated the demand for forestry offsets domestic market mechanisms are emerging in many countries and forests could be highly valued through these policies as most of the benefits produced by forests are enjoyed locally here a choice experiment explores drivers of valuation and willingness to pay for forest carbon services in voluntary markets in mexico by comparing the valuation of citizens from four regions to test geographical preference for projects n 645 findings from multinomial logit models show valuation of forest carbon services is transferable and citizens would pay more for offsets from projects closer to their homes proximate forests provide a range of co benefits to local users including environmental services and opportunities for recreation factors related to valuation include sense of responsibility previous knowledge of carbon emissions previous visits to the sites regional identification and the valuation of local environmental services e g improvements in local air quality knowledge of spatial heterogeneity in valuation of the use of forest services can help to design market based instruments by identifying highly valued areas for environmental services programs and carbon markets

societal metabolism working hours and degrowth a comment on sorman and giampietro can we choose whether to degrow sorman and giampetro in this special issue argue that degrowth can only be forced upon us it will never be the outcome of voluntary or collective choice in this commentary i argue instead that although sooner or later we will have to degrow because of bio physical limitations we still have a choice of how to do it constructing a positive vision of degrowth as an inspirational political project that mobilizes citizens increases the likelihood of a prosperous way down i agree with the authors that in an energy scarce world we will have to work more to maintain the same level of material affluence but i contend that under conceivable conditions we might be equally happy with less work less energy and less material affluence a multi scalar analysis of societal metabolism is essential for the evaluation of degrowth policies and trajectories however unlike what sorman and giampietro suggest there is nothing in existing metabolic analyses that suggests that a prosperous degrowth trajectory is a priori impossible

consumption risk farm characteristics and soil conservation adoption among low income farmers in the philippines abstract this paper investigates patterns of soil conservation adoption among low income farmers in the philippines a model is presented that focuses attention on the role of assets and consumption risk in influencing soil conservation adoption decisions results from a reduced form probit model of adoption are reported these econometric findings indicate that patterns of soil conservation adoption reflect relative risk considerations in addition to farm and household characteristics farm size tenure security labor availability and land quality all exhibit a positive association with soil conservation adoption in contrast controlling on these and other household characteristics the probability of adoption falls as consumption risk rises these results underscore a need for greater sensitivity among policymakers to the role of consumption risk in influencing soil conservation decisions in low income settings

adoption of agricultural innovations in developing countries a survey this paper reviews various studies which have provided a description and possible explanation to patterns of innovation adoption in the agricultural sector the survey points out that the tendency of many studies to consider innovation adoption in dichotomous terms adoption nonadoption may not be appropriate in many cases where the actual decisions are defined over a more continuous range more attention needs to be given to the socio cultural and institutional environment in area studies so that their interrelation with economic factors affecting adoption can be inferred the presence of several interrelated innovations is another aspect that needs to be considered more carefully in future research since a number of simultaneous decisions may be involved furthermore the possibility of regular sequential patterns in adopting components of a new technological package should be specifically addressed in future studies finally the impact of differential adoption rates on land holding distribution merits attention in future research

trade and the greenhouse gas emissions from international freight transport we collect extensive data on worldwide trade by transportation mode and use this to provide detailed comparisons of the greenhouse gas emissions associated with output versus international transportation of traded goods international transport is responsible for 33 percent of world wide trade related emissions and over 75 percent of emissions for major manufacturing categories including transport dramatically changes the ranking of countries by emissions per dollar of trade we systematically investigate whether trade inclusive of transport can lower emissions in one quarter of cases the difference in output emissions is more than enough to compensate for the emissions cost of transport finally we examine how likely patterns of global trade growth will affect modal use and emissions full liberalization of tariffs and gdp growth concentrated in china and india lead to transport emissions growing much faster than the value of trade due to trade shifting toward distant trading partners

economic factors in farmer adoption of agroforestry patterns observed in western kenya abstract a study of agroforestry adoption by 3 000 project participants in siaya and south nyanza districts in kenya supports three hypotheses 1 1 historical increases in tree domestication and management intensity are responses to declining supply of uncultivated tree resources increased subsistence and commercial demand for tree products and perceived risks of ecological degradation adoption of agroforestry is most likely where consistent with economic incentives for land use change 2 2 high variability in individual farmers tree growing strategies reflects differences in resources and livelihood strategies and household level returns to agroforestry relative to alternative options for meeting specific objectives 3 3 farmers reduce risks associated with new agroforestry practices through incremental adoption and adaptation and cost and risk reducing modifications in technology design

a comparative study of linear and nonlinear models for aggregate retail sales forecasting abstract the purpose of this paper is to compare the accuracy of various linear and nonlinear models for forecasting aggregate retail sales because of the strong seasonal fluctuations observed in the retail sales several traditional seasonal forecasting methods such as the time series approach and the regression approach with seasonal dummy variables and trigonometric functions are employed the nonlinear versions of these methods are implemented via neural networks that are generalized nonlinear functional approximators issues of seasonal time series modeling such as deseasonalization are also investigated using multiple cross validation samples we find that the nonlinear models are able to outperform their linear counterparts in out of sample forecasting and prior seasonal adjustment of the data can significantly improve forecasting performance of the neural network model the overall best model is the neural network built on deseasonalized time series data while seasonal dummy variables can be useful in developing effective regression models for predicting retail sales the performance of dummy regression models may not be robust furthermore trigonometric models are not useful in aggregate retail sales forecasting

valuing nature lessons learned and future research directions this paper critically reviews the literature on environmental valuation of ecosystem services across the range of global biomes the main objective of this review is to assess the policy relevance of the information encompassed by the wide range of valuation studies that have been undertaken so far published and other studies now cover most ecosystems with aquatic and marine contexts attracting the least attention there is also a predominance of single function valuation studies studies valuing multiple functions and uses and studies which seek to capture the before and after states as environmental changes take place are rare by and large it is the latter types of analyses that are most important as aids to more rational decision taking in ecosystem conservation versus development situations involving different stakeholders local national and global aggregate global scale estimates of ecosystems value are problematic given the fact that only marginal values are consistent with conventional decision aiding tools such as economic cost benefit analysis in general valuation data provide prima facie support for the hypothesis that net ecosystem service value diminishes with biodiversity and ecosystem loss balmford et al 2002 science 297 p 950 future research effort should include complementary research on multiple ecosystem services that seeks to capture the temporal disturbance profile and its causal factors the explicit recognition of multiple interdependent ecosystem services and values poses both conceptual and empirical research challenges it would serve to transform the practice of research in this sub field via the a priori assumption of multiple and inter dependent use instead of independent single use this line of reasoning can then be extended to the institutional arrangements that determine which values are captured new institutional processes and arrangements are probably required in order to best realise benefit streams from multiple ecosystem use and non use provision across a range of different stakeholders

capturing the value of forest carbon for local livelihoods abstract we contribute to the debate on the social implications of carbon forestry projects by showing that tradeoffs exist between social benefits of projects and their cost effectiveness large scale industrial plantations and strict forest protection are economically viable but pose the highest social risks socially beneficial projects are less cost effective because of their higher transaction costs enabling policies are also required for their success regulation of carbon markets will therefore be required to reduce social risks and enhance benefits we propose a number of regulatory and proactive measures and justify them on the basis of market imperfections and concepts of sustainable development

averages of forecasts some empirical results an alternative to using a single forecasting method is to average the forecasts obtained from several methods in this paper we investigate empirically the impact of the number and choice of forecasting methods on the accuracy of simple averages it is concluded that the forecasting accuracy improves and that the variability of accuracy among different combinations decreases as the number of methods in the average increases thus combining forecasts seems to be a reasonable practical alternative when as is often the case a true model of the data generating process or a single best forecasting method cannot be or is not for whatever reasons identified

valuing biodiversity for use in pharmaceutical research biodiversity prospecting has been touted as a mechanism for both discovering new pharmaceutical products and saving endangered ecosystems it is unclear what values may arise from such activities however evidence from transactions is incomplete and existing theoretical models are flawed we calculate an upper bound on the value of the marginal species even under favorable assumptions this bound is modest slightly modified assumptions lead to drastically lower estimates we extend our findings to the value of the marginal hectare of habitat and find that the incentives for habitat conservation generated by private pharmaceutical research are also at best very modest

in defence of degrowth abstract this article defends the proposal of sustainable degrowth a starting premise is that resource and co2 limits render further growth of the economy unsustainable if degrowth is inevitable the question is how it can become socially sustainable i e a prosperous and stable rather than a catastrophic descent pricing mechanisms alone are unlikely to secure smooth adaptation a full ensemble of environmental and redistributive policies is required including among others policies for a basic income reduction of working hours environmental and consumption taxes and controls on advertising policies like these that threaten to harm the economy are less and less likely to be implemented within existing market economies whose basic institutions financial property political and redistributive depend on and mandate continuous economic growth an intertwined cultural and political change is needed that will embrace degrowth as a positive social development and reform those institutions that make growth an imperative sustainable degrowth is therefore not just a structuring concept it is a radical political project that offers a new story and a rallying slogan for a social coalition built around the aspiration to construct a society that lives better with less

long memory economic policy uncertainty and forecasting us inflation a bayesian varfima approach abstractwe compare inflation forecasts of a vector autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average varfima model against standard forecasting models u s inflation forecasts improve when controlling for persistence and economic policy uncertainty epu importantly the varfima model comprising of inflation and epu outperforms commonly used inflation forecast models

comparative analysis of non market valuation techniques for the eduardo avaroa reserve bolivia abstract ecological tourism has held up as a potentially important development alternative in relatively undeveloped regions and countries however tourism is a highly vulnerable activity where tourists display voluntary and discretionary behavior while tourism can serve as an income generating activity for the region uncontrolled tourism that is developed without consideration of the environmental impact can adversely affect the natural areas determining what to charge tourists to view a natural area is difficult since demand elasticities are not readily available from observable transactions in order to better gauge the value tourists place on the reserve and their sensitivity to changes in the costs of visiting eduardo avaroa non market valuation provides several valuable tools here we test the convergent validity between two popular non market valuation alternatives the contingent valuation method and the contingent behavior method tourists to the eduardo avaroa reserve in bolivia were asked their willingness to pay in visitor days or in dollars due to an improvement in tourism services at the reserve our models show that the traditionally important variables predict willingness to pay for improved services for the contingent behavior contingent valuation and the pooled model however we find statistically and empirically meaningful distinctions in the estimates derived from the two methods comparisons of the implications of adopting the entrance fee recommendations from the two non market valuation techniques are made based on the revenues predicted to accrue to eduardo avaroa reserve if park management techniques were improved this research highlights the challenges in using non market valuation techniques for policy formation particularly in a developing country setting

prices and tree planting on hillside farms in palawan abstract this paper investigates determinants of tree planting decisions on low income farms in the philippines the analysis quantifies the extent to which agricultural prices price uncertainty and farm specific characteristics help to explain mango planting decisions on hillside farms regression analysis is applied to data on tree planting for 1981 94 results indicate tree planting is positively correlated with mango prices and negatively correlated with prices of competing crops relative price uncertainty and farm size also play important roles in explaining tree planting patterns implications for policies to encourage tree planting are discussed

degrowth taking stock and reviewing an emerging academic paradigm degrowth has evolved within a decade from an activist movement into a multi disciplinary academic paradigm however an overview taking stock of the peer refereed degrowth literature is yet missing here we review 91 articles that were published between 2006 and 2015 we find that the academic degrowth discourse occupies a small but expanding niche at the intersection of social and applied environmental sciences the discourse is shaped by authors from high income mainly mediterranean countries until 2012 articles largely constitute conceptual essays endorsed by normative claims more recently degrowth has branched out into modelling empirical assessments and the study of concrete implementations authors tend to agree in that economic growth cannot be sustained ad infinitum on a resource constraint planet and that degrowth requires far reaching societal change whether degrowth should be considered as a collectively consented choice or an environmentally imposed inevitability constitutes a major debate among degrowth thinkers we argue that the academic discourse could benefit from rigid hypotheses testing through input output modelling material flow analysis life cycle assessments or social surveys by analyzing the potentials for non market value creation and identifying concrete well being benefits the degrowth discourse could receive wider public support and contribute to a paradigmatic change in the social sciences

should all choices count using the cut offs approach to edit responses in a choice experiment should we give equal weight to all responses in a choice experiment previous choice modelling papers have considered the issue of the internal consistency of choices such as the extent to which strictly dominated options are chosen in this paper a different focus is employed namely the extent to which people choose options which violate their stated upper or lower limits for the acceptable levels for individual attributes since hypothetical over statement of wtp has been a focus in stated preference studies we concentrate on violations of stated upper limits of wtp and explore the effects of editing such choices using a variable censoring rule and alternative approaches to re classifying choices the empirical case study is a choice experiment on eco tourists in rwanda our main conclusion is that the suggested approach offers a useful way of imposing consistency on choices and that editing choices in this manner has an appreciable impact on estimated willingness to pay however issues remain with regard to explaining why people apparently violate their stated maximum willingness to pay

ecotourism and economic incentives an empirical approach within the new array of green products and services ecotourism claims to combine environmental responsibility with the generation of local economic benefits that will have both a development impact and serve as conservation incentives economic incentives are imperative for nature conservation particularly in remote and ill monitored regions where a weak presence of the state hinders the use of alternative tools of environmental regulation in the following the link between tourism local benefits and conservation is conceptualised and analysed empirically using data from the cuyabeno wildlife reserve in the ecuadorian amazon region near the border of colombia and peru three cuyabeno indigenous groups have developed different modes of tourism participation ranging from autonomous operations to pure salary employment a quantification of local cash flows from tourism allows for a comparative analysis of income structure spending and the impacts on local development and on conservation attitudes it is concluded that in the whole study area tourism has actually provided significant additional income counter to common belief the mode of participation is less decisive for local income generation than the tourist attraction of the natural site the degree of tourism specialisation and the level of local organisation however as a conservation incentive the effectiveness of tourism income depends on the incentive structure inherent in the mode of participation and on the substitution versus complementarity of other productive activities only if tourism changes labour and land allocation decisions will it have a local conservation impact it is discussed under which circumstances the conjectured link between tourism local incomes and conservation is likely to be effective this leads to some general lessons for government policies for the design of integrated conservation and development projects icdps and to a number of site specific recommendations for improving incentive structures 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

can degrowth overcome the leakage problem of unilateral climate policy abstract unilateral climate policy suffers from carbon leakage i e the partial offset of the initial emission reduction by increases in other countries different than most typically discussed climate policies degrowth not only aims at reducing the fossil fuel use in an economy but rather besides other social and political goals at a reduction of all factor inputs which may lead to different leakage implications we conduct the first investigation of degrowth in a multi country setting in order to i compare the leakage effects of national pure emission reduction policies to degrowth scenarios ii identify underlying channels by decomposing the implied emission changes into scale composition and technique effects and iii investigate which country characteristics determine degrowth s relative effectiveness to overcome the leakage problem using a structural gravity model we find that degrowth indeed significantly reduces leakage by keeping the sectoral composition of the country more stable and reducing uncommitted countries incentives to shift towards more energy intensive production techniques the higher effectiveness of degrowth in reducing carbon emissions is most pronounced for small and trade open economies with comparatively clean production technologies

can payments for environmental services help reduce poverty an exploration of the issues and the evidence to date from latin america summary this paper examines the main ways in which payments for environmental services pes might affect poverty pes may reduce poverty mainly by making payments to poor natural resource managers in upper watersheds the extent of the impact depends on how many pes participants are in fact poor on the poors ability to participate and on the amounts paid although pes programs are not designed for poverty reduction there can be important synergies when program design is well thought out and local conditions are favorable possible adverse effects can occur where property rights are insecure or if pes programs encourage less labor intensive practices 2004 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

trees as savings and security for the rural poor abstract professionals have rarely seen trees as savings banks for poor people but while trees and their products have become more valuable and easier to market many poor people have become more vulnerable as contingencies cost more and traditional supports weaken consequently trees have increasing importance and potential as savings and security for the poor and for use to meet contingencies for savings and security trees compare quite well with jewelry large stock small stock land and bank deposits disadvantages of trees can include insecure or unclear rights restrictions on cutting and selling when needed and problems with marketing but common advantages include cheap and easy establishment rapid appreciation in value divisibility to meet needs closely and regeneration after cutting more empirical studies are needed on the use and potential of trees as poor people s savings banks the policy implications of present evidence and analysis include tree reform improved marketing and prices and above all investing poor people with secure and full ownership of trees with rights to harvest cut and sell similar to the withdrawal rights of depositors in savings banks

de growth and welfare in an equilibrium model with heterogeneous consumers this paper studies equilibrium growth and voluntary degrowth allowing for heterogeneous and time varying preferences the approach is based on applying a dynamic equilibrium model with externalities in production consumption and leisure preference heterogeneity regarding status competition is modeled by asymmetric consumption externality parameters whereas heterogeneity regarding voluntary simplicity is incorporated by allowing for agent specific restrictions on maximum consumption equilibrium is studied in terms of a balanced growth path bgp numerical examples suggest that degrowth triggered by voluntary simplicity by a subset of consumers less affected by status competition has a positive effect on the aggregate welfare under externalities in consumption and leisure a reduction in status competition increases the aggregate welfare and reduces the equilibrium growth rate simulations suggest that a time varying equilibrium in the heterogeneous preference model with two consumer classes is well approximated by a constant bgp

effects of demographic and related microeconomic change on land quality in hills and mountains of developing countries abstract more than 70 empirical studies indicate that local population growth and its microeconomic manifestations in hills and mountains of developing countries do not necessarily threaten forest production agriculture livestock production or watershed stability population growth can make the cost of land relative to labor increase as this cost increases people often change their methods of managing economic plants and animals and make land improvements to offset initial declines in productivity that result from more frequent use of land thus the relationship between land productivity and relative land labor costs often resembles a u halting population growth or removing people from well settled areas might not improve productivity or reduce some off site damages

poverty alleviation and tropical forests what scope for synergies abstract this paper explores the state of the art of the two way causal links between poverty alleviation and natural tropical forests microimpacts of rising poverty can increase or slow forest loss at the macrolevel poverty also has an ambiguous effect but it is probable that higher income stimulates forest loss by raising demand for agricultural land the second question is what potential forest led development has to alleviate a country s poverty in terms of producer benefits consumer benefits and economy wide employment natural forests widely serve as safety nets for the rural poor but it proves difficult to raise producer benefits significantly urban consumer benefits from forest an important target for pro poor agricultural innovation are limited and seldom favor the poor absorption of poor unskilled labor is low in forestry which tends to be capital intensive natural forests may thus lack comparative advantage for poverty alleviation there are few win win synergies between natural forests and national poverty reduction which may help to explain why the loss of tropical forests is ongoing this may have important implications for our understanding of sustainable forest development and for the design of both conservation and poverty alleviation strategies

an equilibrium framework for the analysis of a degrowth society with asymmetric agents sharing and basic income abstract this paper presents a novel equilibrium framework allowing for asymmetries in the initial wealth allocations labour supplies as well as in the preferences of optimizing agents the framework is applied to study a degrowth society where a subset of agents voluntarily limit their material consumption thereby complying with voluntary simplicity vs at micro level the utility maximization problems of asymmetric agents are formulated and solved for optimal labour supplies new macro level equilibrium solutions accounting for wealth inequality are presented based on different labour supply models the equilibrium welfare is measured using a bernoully nash aggregate an increase in the share of the vs type agents implies a degrowth transition to a lower level of average consumption analysis of the equilibrium framework shows that degrowth whereby average market based consumption falls improves the equilibrium welfare assuming the vs type agents have sufficient resources enabling a reduction in labour supplies sharing collaborative consumption and basic income support welfare increasing degrowth any growing economy can eventually reach the size at which degrowth would improve the welfare simulations suggest that degrowth can also yield a pareto improvement in welfare

how sustainable are sustainable development programs the case of the sloping land conversion program in china summary this paper undertakes a comprehensive assessment of the long run sustainability of one of the world s largest sustainable development programs the slopping land conversion program slcp in china under different plausible post slcp scenarios the analysis is based on farmer contingent behavior post program land and labor decisions as well as choice experiment data our econometric results highlight the main obstacles to the program s sustainability which include specific shortfalls in program implementation and certain institutional constraints namely tenure insecurity and poor land renting rights the use of a choice experiment also reveals unique evidence on rural households preferences over tenure reform in china

growth degrowth and climate change a scenario analysis article i nfo article history the paper proceeds with a discussion of the interplay of scale and intensity in determining greenhouse gas emissions this is followed by the presentation of several macroeconomic scenarios using lowgrow a simulation model of the canadian economy the scenarios considered are business as usual which is a projection into the future of past trends selective growth in which differential growth rates are applied to parts of the economy according to their direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions and degrowth where the average gdp capita of canadians is reduced towards a level more consistent with a world economy the size of which respects global environmental limits the paper ends with a comparison of the scenarios 2011 published by elsevier b v

do financial variables help forecasting inflation and real activity in the euro area abstract this paper uses a large data set consisting of 447 monthly macroeconomic time series concerning the main countries of the euro area to simulate out of sample predictions of the euro area industrial production and the harmonized inflation index and to evaluate the role of financial variables in forecasting we considered two models which allow forecasting based on large panels of time series forni et al rev econom statist 82 2000 540 mimeo 2001b and stock and watson mimeo 1999 performance of both models were compared to that of a simple univariate ar model results show that multivariate methods outperform univariate methods for forecasting inflation at one three six and twelve months and industrial production at one and three months we find that financial variables do help forecasting inflation but do not help forecasting industrial production

participation in the world s first clean development mechanism forest project the role of property rights social capital and contractual rules abstract clean development mechanism cdm forest projects are perceived as an attractive way to both help mitigate climate change and transfer income to rural poor however to engender participation of small scale producers a cdm forest project must offer sufficient incentives while minimizing their costs of participation all the while respecting the need for additionality property rights social capital and contractual rules are critical in the success of cdm forest projects in this paper we ask what factors affect participation in the world s first cdm project established in guangxi province china using village level surveys we find that although the project facilitates participation through carbon pooling and a share holding system much of the project land remains unforested we find that the primary reasons for the unforested regions are constrained contractual rules property rights allocation disputes and low levels of social capital in some villages

benefit sharing among local resource users the role of property rights skewed distributions of benefits from natural resources can fuel social exclusion and conflict threatening sustainability this paper analyzes how user group property rights to harvest forest products affect the distribution of benefits from those products within user groups we argue that groups with recognized harvesting rights share benefits more equally among group members than groups without such rights we test this argument with data from 350 forest user groups in 14 developing countries our results suggest that securing harvesting rights for local user groups can contribute to more equal benefit sharing especially in ethnically homogenous groups

forecasting aggregate retail sales the case of south africa abstract forecasting aggregate retail sales may improve portfolio investors ability to predict movements in the stock prices of retail chains this paper uses 26 23 single and 3 combination forecasting models to forecast south africa s aggregate seasonal retail sales we use data from 1970 01 2012 05 with 1987 01 2012 05 as the out of sample period unlike the previous literature on retail sales forecasting we not only look at a wide array of linear and nonlinear models but also generate multi step ahead forecasts using a real time recursive estimation scheme over the out of sample period to better mimic the practical scenario faced by economic agents making retailing decisions in addition we deviate from the uniform symmetric quadratic loss function typically used in forecast evaluation exercises by considering loss functions that overweight the forecast error in booms and recessions focusing on the results of single models alone shows that their performances differ greatly across forecast horizons and for different weighting schemes with no unique model performing the best across various scenarios however combination forecast models especially the discounted mean square forecast error method which weighs current information more than past not only produced better forecasts but were also largely unaffected by business cycles and time horizons this result along with individual nonlinear models performing better than linear models led us to conclude that theoretical research on retail sales should look at developing dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models that not only incorporate learning behavior but also allow the behavioral parameters of the model to be state dependent to account for regime switching behavior across alternative states of the economy

a study of degrowth paths based on the von neumann equilibrium model abstract this paper revisits the von neumann equilibrium model from a degrowth perspective degrowth can be either planned or autonomous based on voluntary simplicity vs characterized by voluntary constraints on the private consumptions any share of the working population is allowed to limit their private consumptions or ecological footprint degrowth means a lower economic growth rate as well as reductions in the usage of materials and fossil energy however when the economy cannot fit within the biophysical boundary despite such reductions degrowth can also mean a deliberate transition towards lesser and cleaner production of a smaller number of goods taking ecological boundaries into consideration may thus switch the direction of an economy from growth to degrowth degrowth is consistent with economic equilibrium in the dynamic input output model degrowth equilibrium results when a critical mass of the population prioritizes diminishing the ecological deficit over increasing the output levels green growth can take place during degrowth while the economy gradually shrinks the interest profit rate in macroeconomic equilibrium is negative due to the conservation target excessive consumption has negative value to vs type agents degrowing private consumptions implies less work more leisure and better quality of the environment improving social welfare degrowth can be advanced by adopting a more cooperative production system or by imposing high ecological taxes the equilibrium model yields an argument for basic income as a means of supporting welfare during degrowth and of compensating for unpaid work the open economy version of the model shows reduced scope for intra industry trade between similar countries

macroeconomic forecasting using diffusion indexes this article studies forecasting a macroeconomic time series variable using a large number of predictors the predictors are summarized using a small number of indexes constructed by principal component analysis an approximate dynamic factor model serves as the statistical framework for the estimation of the indexes and construction of the forecasts the method is used to construct 6 12 and 24 monthahead forecasts for eight monthly u s macroeconomic time series using 215 predictors in simulated real time from 1970 through 1998 during this sample period these new forecasts outperformed univariate autoregressions small vector autoregressions and leading indicator models