the fisher hypothesis and the forecastability and persistence of inflation abstract for the period 1860 to 1939 the simple correlation of the u s commercial paper rate with the contemporaneous inflation rate is 0 17 the corresponding correlation for the period 1950 to 1979 is 0 71 this paper attributes this apparent change in the fisher relation to differences in the stochastic process of inflation rather than a change in any structural relationship between interest rates and expected inflation contrary to recent claims in the literature there is little evidence of inflation non neutrality in data from the pre world war i period

the federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission the authors show that the interest rate on federal funds is extremely informative about future movements of real macroeconomic variables then they argue that the reason for this forecasting success is that the funds rate sensitively records shocks to the supply of bank reserves that is the funds rate is a good indicator of monetary policy actions finally using innovations to the funds rate as a measure of changes in policy the authors present evidence consistent with the view that monetary policy works at least in part through credit i e bank loans as well as through money i e bank deposits copyright 1992 by american economic association

on measuring child costs with applications to poor countries the theoretical basis for measuring child costs is discussed and detailed consideration is given to two straightforward procedures for calculation engel s food share method and rothbarth s adult good method each of these methods embodies different definitions of child costs so that the same empirical evidence can generate quite different estimates depending on the method used it is shown that true costs are generally overstated by engel s method and understated by rothbarth s procedure although the latter unlike the former can provide a sensible starting point for cost measurement our estimates from sri lankan and indonesian data suggest that children cost their parents about 30 40 percent of what they spend on themselves

price quantity strategic market games this paper is yet another in a rapidly growing series e g 2 11 on strategic approaches to economic equilibrium our aim here is to make precise the remark implicitly due to bertrand 1 or 10 ch 4 5 that if the agents in an economy use price setting strategies then the strategic nash equilibria will in fact be walrasian and this without any assumption of a large number of small agents however in our models not only prices but also quantities are set by the agents thus it might actually be more appropriate to call them bertrand cournot types of models we begin with a standard walras exchange economy with a finite number of traders and commodities this is recast as a game in strategic form in essentially two different ways there is a trading post for each commodity to which traders send contingent statements about how much they wish to buy and sell and at what prices in model 1 the trading point is determined by the intersection of the aggregate supply and demand curves in model 2 trade takes place so as to meet as many contingent statements as possible each buyer whose orders are filled pays the price he quoted using a fiat money which can be borrowed costlessly and limitlessly but after trade is over there is a settlement of accounts and a penalty is levied on those who are bankrupt no attempt is made to model the penalty in any detail it is simply described in the form of a disutility but this in turn may be imagined to stem from confiscation of assets see remark 5 or the necessity of procuring highly priced loans etc call a noncooperative equilibrium active if it turns out that no trader is isolated i e trapped as the sole buyer or seller at some trading post then our results may be described as follows in model 1 the active2 n e of the game coincide with the c e of the market furthermore there is a subset of tight active n e which also coincide with the c e and each n e in this subset is strong

fuel poverty and access to electricity comparing households when they differ in needs although sequential stochastic dominance techniques have been used in the literature to make comparisons of income poverty which are robust to the assumptions made about the economies of scale within households the techniques could be applied to a much wider set of issues in this paper these techniques are applied to energy deprivation in guatemala fuel poverty is compared among households with and without access to electricity and it is assessed whether access to electricity for those who do not have access currently would eliminate the observed difference in fuel poverty between the two groups of households

a theory of ambiguity credibility and inflation under discretion and asymmetric information this paper develops a positive theory of credibility ambiguity and inflation under discretion and asymmetric information the monetary policymaker maximizes his own politically motivated objective function that is positively related to economic stimulation through monetary surprises and negatively related to monetary growth the relative importance he assigns to each target shifts stochastically through time his current preference trade off is known to him but not to the public when choosing the state contingent path of money growth for the present and the future the policymaker compares the benefits from current stimulation with the costs associated with higher future inflation expectations current monetary growth conveys information to the public about future money growth because there is persistence in the policymaker s objectives although expectations are rational information is imperfect because monetary control procedures are imprecise as a result the public cannot correctly distinguish persistent changes of emphasis on different policy objectives from transitory monetary control errors the public becomes aware of changes gradually by observing past monetary growth credibility is defined in terms of the speed with which the public recognizes changes in the objectives of the policymaker credibility is lower the noisier monetary control and the more stable the objectives of the policymaker looser monetary control and a higher degree of time preference on the part of the policymaker induce him to produce higher and more variable monetary growth when the policymaker is free to determine the accuracy of monetary control he does not always choose the most effective control available in spite of the fact that monetary surprises always have an expected value of zero the reason is that ambiguous control procedures enable the policymaker to generate positive surprises when he cares more than on average about economic stimulation he leaves the inevitable negative surprises for periods in which he cares more about inflation prevention this result provides an explanation for the fed s preference for ambiguity recently documented by goodfriend 1986 the policymaker is more likely to pick more ambiguous control procedures the more uncertain his objectives and the higher his time preference the paper also provides a theoretical underpinning for the well documented crosscountry positive correlation between the level and the variability of inflation

empirical measurement of horizontal inequity abstract horizontal inequity is the unequal treatment of equals a crucial problem arising when measuring its extent is how should differential treatment which has some equity justification be distinguished from that which does not the literature to date has suggested that genuine equals can be identified and thence the problem solved by adjusting incomes prior to calculations using equivalence scales the paper argues that there are some good reasons for considering an alternative approach labelled partial symmetry in this the emphasis is on measuring horizontal inequity within each group of households with the same equity relevant characteristics rather than on adjusting incomes and then using the same measure for all households in the population the approaches are compared theoritically with reference to summary indices based on the generalised entropy family and to the conditions required to make partial orderings of different redistributions exploratory empirical work suggests there has been a substantial reduction in the horizontal inequity of u k direct taxes between 1976 and 1981 whichever approach is used the sources of the inequity observed are analysed in detail

ranking income distributions a large variety of policy questions involve choices between social states and a consequent ordering of the feasible alternatives when these social states are related to the levels of welfare experienced by individuals or households two central issues stand out in determining the relative desirability of different social outcomes one of these is the essentially positive exercise of achieving comparability between households with different characteristics such as composition or preferences operating in different environments for example facing different price structures the other concerns the normative judgments implicit in the evaluation of alternative allocations of resourcesthe emphasis placed on inequality between households and the extent to which greater inequality can be compensated by higher average living standards this paper focuses on the second of these issues and in doing so we abstract from the problem of household comparability by considering a population of n households identical in all respects except for their incomes the question of ordering social states then becomes one of ranking income distributions over a group of anonymous households or individuals borrowing the usual assumptions imposed on consumer preferences we may suppose that a social ordering of income distributions can be represented by a welfare function 2

schooling and economic well being the role of nonmarket effects standard estimates of the economic value of additional schooling based on earnings differences associated with differences in the level of schooling attained cover only a portion of the total effects of education that are valued by citizens we first identify a catalog of nonmarketed effects many of which have been recently studied by economists and then propose a procedure for estimating a willingness to pay value for these effects using empirical estimates of the magnitude of a selection of these effects found in the literature we calculate willingness to pay values using our proposed procedure these illustrative calculations suggest that standard estimates of the benefit of incremental schooling substantially understate the full value of such investments

the design of direct taxation and family benefits abstract the subject of this paper is the design of the personal income tax and social security benefits that vary with the size of the family it is concerned with the analytical problems of policy design that arise from constraints on the instruments which may be used from differences in social judgements about the desirability of redistribution and from differences of view about the disincentive effects of taxation the paper considers these issues in the context of the french tax benefit system and the implications of the french system being harmonised towards certain features of the british system

social welfare when needs differ an axiomatic approach if the social welfare of households of different demographic type has to be evaluated we observe considerable disagreement about the way the composition of households is to be taken into account this paper makes an attempt to differentiate some of the various approaches it deals with four methods in order to make their normative content transparent an axiomatic approach is employed the methods are completely characterized and some of their implications are demonstrated

the effect of changes in the federal funds rate target on market interest rates in the 1970s abstract this paper examines the influence of monetary policy on interest rates by estimating the effect of changes in the federal funds rate target the federal reserve s policy instrument on market interest rates in the 1970s we find that changes in the target caused large movements in short term rates and smaller but significant movements in intermediate and long term rates we hypothesize that the similarity of the reactions of three six and twelve month rates to changes in the target offers a possible explanation for the lack of support for the expectations theory from studies that have tested the theory using these rates

why are professional forecasters biased agency versus behavioral explanations professional forecasters may not simply aim to minimize expected squared forecast errors in models with repeated forecasts the pattern of forecasts reveals valuable information about the forecasters even before the outcome is realized rational forecasters will compromise between minimizing errors and mimicking prediction patterns typical of able forecasters simple models based on this argument imply that forecasts are biased in the direction of forecasts typical of able forecasters our models of strategic bias are rejected empirically as forecasts are biased in directions typical of forecasters with large mean squared forecast errors this observation is consistent with behavioral explanations of forecast bias

federal reserve information and the behavior of interest rates this paper tests for the existence of asymmetric information between the federal reserve and the public by examining federal reserve and commercial inflation forecasts it demonstrates that the federal reserve has considerable information about inflation beyond what is known to commercial forecasters it also shows that monetary policy actions provide signals of the federal reserve s information and that commercial forecasters modify their forecasts in response to those signals these findings may explain why long term interest rates typically rise in response to shifts to tighter monetary policy jel e52 e43 d82 asymmetric information between the federal reserve and the public is a phenomenon that is often posited but rarely tested numerous models of central bank behavior for example show that the existence of asymmetric information has important implications for the effectiveness of policy and the consequences of dynamic inconsistency yet there

on credible monetary policy and private government information credible and optimal monetary policies are considered in environments in which the government observes a signal that is correlated with the state of the economy when the signal is public information it is optimal for monetary policy to be conditioned upon it the extent to which such conditioning should occur when the signal is the private information of the government depends upon the government s incentives to misrepresent information it is shown that in some cases the ramsey policy is incentive compatible in others it is not in the latter cases policy must be constrained to be incentive compatible this may result in penalty phases along the equilibrium path following apparent mistakes by the policy maker it may result in the optimal monetary policy making no use of the signal journal of economic literature classification numbers c73 e52 e58

from income inequality to economic inequality i begin by recounting a true story a rather trivial and innocuous story as it happens but one with something of a lesson some years ago when i went to give a lecture at another campus i chose economic inequality as the title of my talk on arrival i found the campus covered with posters announcing that i was speaking on income inequality when i grumbled about it slightly i encountered gentle but genuine amazement that i wanted to fuss about such an insignificant difference indeed the identification of economic inequality with income inequality is fairly standard and the two are often seen as effectively synonymous in the economic literature if you tell someone that you are working on economic inequality it is quite commonly assumed that you are studying income distribution this implicit identification can be found in the philosophical literature as well for example in his interesting and important paper equality as a moral ideal harry frankfurt 1987 the distinguished philosopher provides a closely reasoned critique of what he calls economic egalitarianism defining it as the doctrine that there should be no inequalities in the distribution of money p 21 the distinction however is important many of the criticisms of economic egalitarianism as a value or a goal applies much more readily to the narrow concept of income inequality than it does to the broader notions of economic inequality for example giving a larger share of income to a person with more needs say due to a disability can be seen as militating against the principle of equalizing incomes but it does not go against the broader precepts of economic equality since the greater need for economic resources due to the disability must be taken into account in judging the requirements of economic equality well the subject of this paper is precisely the difference between economic inequality and income inequality it will be argued that we ought to pay much more attention than we conventionally do to economic inequality in an appropriately broad sense taking note of the fact that income inequality on which economic analysis of inequality so often concentrates gives

multidimensional welfare distributions empirical application to household panel data from vietnam this article explores the empirical application of theoretical multidimensional welfare distribution analysis techniques to real household welfare distributions the article operationalizes recent conceptual developments in multidimensional distribution theory and assesses their usefulness for the measurement of multidimensional household inequality the results strongly highlight the importance of bringing nonmonetary aspects of household welfare into the forefront of inequality analysis agreement over the various approaches to the measurement of multidimensional inequality entails however nontrivial decisions that may limit the practical usefulness of these measures we suggest that the use of multidimensional inequality ranges and the application of restrictive dominance criteria to multidimensional welfare distributions may open significant scope for further developments in the empirical analysis of multidimensional inequality

robust multidimensional poverty comparisons we demonstrate how to make poverty comparisons using multidimensional indicators of well being showing in particular how to check whether the comparisons are robust to aggregation procedures and to the choice of multidimensional poverty lines in contrast to earlier work our methodology applies equally well to what can be defined as union intersection or intermediate approaches to dealing with multidimensional indicators of well being to make this procedure of some practical usefulness the paper also derives the sampling distribution of various multidimensional poverty estimators including estimators of the critical poverty frontiers outside which multidimensional poverty comparisons can no longer be deemed ethically robust the results are illustrated using data from a number of developing countries

monetary policy and market interest rates this thesis contains four chapters each of which examines different aspects of the uncertainty facing monetary policymakers monetary policy and market interest rates investigates how interest rates set on financial markets respond to policy actions taken by the monetary authorities the reaction of market rates is shown to depend crucially on market participants interpretation of the factors underlying the policy move these theoretical predictions find support in an empirical analysis of the u s financial markets predicting monetary policy using federal funds futures prices examines how prices of federal funds futures contracts can be used to predict policy moves by the federal reserve although the futures prices exhibit systematic variation across trading days and calendar months they are shown to be fairly successful in predicting the federal funds rate target that will prevailafter the next meeting of the federal open market committee from 1994 to 1998 monetary policy with uncertain parameters examines the effects of parameter uncertainty on the optimal monetary policy strategy under certain parameter configurations increasing uncertainty is shown to lead to more aggressive policy in contrast to the accepted wisdom should central banks be more aggressive examines why a certain class of monetary policy models leads to more aggressive policy prescriptions than what is observed in reality these counterfactual results are shown to be due to model restrictions rather than central banks being too cautious in their policy behavior an unrestricted model taking the dynamics of the economy and multiplicative parameter uncertainty into account leads to optimal policy prescriptions which are very close to observed federal reserve behavior

does the federal reserve possess an exploitable informational advantage abstract this paper provides evidence that the federal reserve has an informational advantage over the public that can be exploited to improve activist monetary policy the informational superiority does not result from the fed having earlier access to publicly released financial data instead this advantage is generated by confidential supervisory knowledge about troubled non publicly traded institutions as a result this information can remain confidential for an extended period since these banks have neither the desire to fully disclose the extent of their financial troubles nor the requirement to do so the informational advantage is both statistically significant and economically important providing a potential justification for activist monetary policy

the comparison of multi dimensioned distributions of economic status the literature on inequality measurement has been largely concerned with single dimensioned indicators this paper explores some of the issues which arise when there are several dimensions to inequality and these are not readily reduced to a single index concentrating particularly on the two dimensioned case we make use of results on multi variate stochastic dominance in portfolio theory extending these and applying them to the measurement of inequality the use of the dominance conditions is illustrated by an application to the international distribution of income and life expectancy

measurement of inequality by components of farm household consumption expenditures inequality in consumption levels of families both nationally and internationally has been studied by theil however empirical studies that measure inequality in farm household consumption to our knowledge have not been performed this study measures inequality in farm household consumption in addition the study also measures inequality in consumption based on farm typology and farming region results from this analysis show consumption inequality among farm households is lower than consumption inequality among all other households results indicate that other expenditures component has the highest inequality and food and household supplies component has the lowest inequality further farm typology has information about difference in consumption expenditures the typology is informative when it comes to the components of consumption while the regional decomposition is not

the many approaches to the study of monopolistic competition abstract what are the key questions in the study of monopolistic competition oligopoly theory and allied topics dealing with competition among the few a specification and discussion of some of these questions is given in particular both problems and their resolution in studying oligopoly in a closed economy and the reconciliation of cooperative and non cooperative models of oligopolistic competition with general equilibrium theory is discussed some problems with dynamics are noted in particular the limitations of the non cooperative equilibrium solution are considered questions are raised concerning the domain of application of perfect equilibria the treatment of subjective probabilities and non symmetric information

estimating a household production function heterogeneity the demand for health inputs and their effects on birth weight the household production literature emphasizes that technical or biological processes condition input selection by households in their production activities along with prices and income exogenous variations in health to the extent that they are perceived by individuals heterogeneity lead to correlations between inputs and health outcomes that cannot be used to derive causal conclusions therefore estimates of health technology must be obtained from a behavioral model in which health inputs are themselves choices consistent estimates are reported of the effect of endogenous inputs such as medical care smoking and fertility on birth weight and fetal growth in the presence of health heterogeneity

composite indices of physical quality of life basic needs fulfilment and income a principal component representation abstract in the context of international comparisons the multivariate method of principal components is suggested for computing composite indices of economic development that capture per capita income basic needs fulfilment and other possible indicators of well being the method is conceptually appealing easy to apply and seems promising in several directions two illustrative applications are given one develops a composite index based on the three pqli constituents and per capita gnp for 147 countries in the other a composite index of basic needs fulfilment is first computed for 82 countries and then a more inclusive measure that also takes account of per capita gnp is derived

disability in italian households income poverty and labour market participation this article studies the economic effects of disabled members on italian households with the aim of identifying a suitable target group for welfare policies survey of households income and wealth data for the year 2000 is used preliminary results show significant differences in levels of income and poverty diffusion to the detriment of households with disabled members we propose an exogenous explanation the replacement ratio between disability benefits and expected labour income shows that disability benefits do not compensate the potential incomes of the disabled person and of the possible carer except in households with severe socioeconomic disadvantages we also propose an endogenous explanation applying a logit model we show that the labour market participation of the possible carer is reduced in households with disabled persons in order to increase the income of the households with disabled members policy recommendations include the provision of care services and structural policies to impro