the home bias of the poor foreign asset portfolios across the wealth distribution abstract this paper documents how the share of foreign stocks in us household portfolios rises with the ratio of financial wealth to non financial income this is both because wealthier households are more likely to participate in foreign asset markets and because portfolio shares of participants increase with financial wealth but decrease with non financial income a simple standard two country general equilibrium model shows that hedging of terms of trade movements and non financial income risk produces non trivial heterogeneity in portfolios across the wealth and income distribution within countries that is qualitatively in line with this evidence

the international transmission of real business cycles the authors present a stochastic model of two barter economies with production linked by free trade in goods and securities which generates pareto efficient international transmissions of business cycle disturbances each country is inhabi ted by an infinitely lived representative firm and consumer worker and is subject to country specific production shocks the internation al capital market effects perfect pooling of country specific risk c onsumption and output volatility may be higher in trade than under au tarchy as agents can be induced to undertake additional risk in exchange for a higher expected utility copyright 1988 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

the role of the trade channel in the propagation of oil supply shocks abstract this paper analyzes when and why idiosyncratic oil supply shocks produce large macroeconomic effects in an analytically tractable two country general equilibrium model we focus on a demand driven mechanism the trade channel which transmits oil shocks across economies through changes in the non oil goods terms of trade when the trade channel is operative we have three main consequences on the transmission of oil shocks first the macroeconomic impact of oil shocks may be large and asymmetric across countries second the magnitude of the effects is nonlinear in the size of the oil shock third terms of trade movements never ensure international risk sharing after an idiosyncratic oil supply shock

the impact of agricultural and household technologies on women a conceptual and quantitative analysis in burkina faso abstract agricultural technologies new cultivars inorganic fertilizers soil and water conservation techniques in sub saharan africa have been primarily introduced to male farmers by male dominated extension services on the family plots these yield increasing input intensive technologies increase the demand for farm labor so not only do men obtain most of the direct benefits from the introduction of technology but this labor intensive technology also increases the demands on women s time for additional labor this raises the question are the combined effects of agricultural technologies beneficial or detrimental to women we first develop a labor market model that examines the impact of agricultural and household technologies on labor allocation and income determination within the household we then discuss the important issue of how household labor allocation decisions and division of income are made within the family in sub saharan africa we use a programming model to estimate the effects of these technologies on household incomes and the income of women the results indicate that the impact of agricultural technologies depends on the type of decision making prevailing in the household in contrast household technologies increase the welfare of women regardless of the type of decision making however with bargaining behavior agricultural technologies do benefit women and there is some empirical support for this type of household behavior in sub saharan african households

the consumption real exchange rate anomaly with extensive margins abstract this paper investigates a consumption real exchange rate anomaly from the open macroeconomics literature known as the backus smith puzzle we both analytically and quantitatively examine how an expansion of trade along extensive margins can contribute to the puzzle s resolution our argument is based on 1 a wealth effect due to changes in the number of product varieties 2 statistical inefficiency in measuring the number of product varieties and 3 market incompleteness contrary to complete asset markets which in general feature overly strong risk sharing properties changes in the number of product varieties under incomplete markets may produce a wealth effect under high trade elasticity since statistical agencies systematically fail to capture the welfare impact arising from that changes data consistent terms of trade and real exchange rates tend to appreciate due to this positive wealth effect this provides a realistic correlation between data consistent real exchange rates and consumption

adaptive learning with a unit root an application to the current account abstract this paper develops a simple two country two good model of international trade and borrowing that suppresses all previous sources of current account dynamics under rational expectations international debt follows a random walk under adaptive learning however the model s unit root is eliminated and international debt is either a stationary or an explosive process depending on agents specific learning algorithm some stationary learning algorithms result in debt following an ar 1 process with an autoregressive coefficient less than 0 8 because unit roots are a common and problematic feature of many international business cycle models our results offer a new approach for generating stationarity

seasonal flutuations and equilibrium models of exchange rate most of the evidence on dynamic equilibrium exchange rate models is based on seasonally adjusted consumption data equilibrium models have not worked well in explaining the actual exchange rate however the use of seasonally adjusted data might be responsible for the spurious rejection of the model this article presents a new equilibrium model for the exchange rates that incorporates seasonal preferences the fit of the model to the data is evaluated for five industrialized countries using seasonally unadjusted data our findings indicate that a model with seasonal preferences can generate monthly time series of the exchange rate without seasonality even when the variables that theoretically determine the exchange rate show clear seasonal behaviours further the model can generate theoretical exchange rates with the same order of integration than actual exchange rates and in some cases with the same stochastic trend

energy efficiency and sustainable growth in industrial sectors in european union countries a nonlinear ardl approach abstract it can be said that economic growth providing it ensures a clean and safe environment is one of the main objectives of many countries with this in mind an important question needs to be asked what is the relationship between energy efficiency and economic growth this can only be answered through an empirical analysis by carrying out such an analysis using the energy efficiency of the industrial sector for 11 european union countries for a time span from 1997 to 2015 it should be possible to understand if the energy efficiency measures and investments being made are driving economies towards greater energy efficiency and sustainable growth this paper uses a nonlinear ardl model which allows short and long run relationships to be analysed for the ascending and descending movements of variables the results indicate that investment is increasing energy efficiency while at the same time reducing greenhouse gas emissions economic growth is driving economies to greater energy efficiency the same result is found in the industrial energy price index to verify robustness the environmental kuznets curve was estimated using gross domestic product per capita and as an alternative the industrial production index to ensure increased energy efficiency along with sustainable growth policymakers must adapt their policies and devise new ones to both incentivise investment and control energy pricing alternative ways of electricity generation such as renewable sources could allow the economy to grow in a more sustainable way such mechanisms would let policymakers develop policies for greener and more sustainable growth while at the same time encouraging the efficient use of energy

trying to explain home bias in equities and consumption investors hold a substantially larger proportion of their wealth portfolios in domestic assets than standard portfolio theory would suggest a phenomenon called equity home bias in the absence of this bias investors would optimally diversify domestic output risk using foreign equities therefore consumption growth rates would tend to co move across countries even when output growth rates do not empirically however consumption growth rates tend to have a lower correlation across countries than do output growth rates a phenomenon i call consumption home bias in this paper i discuss these two biases and their potential relationship as suggested by the literature

international investment positions a cross sectional analysis abstract we explore some empirical properties of the level and composition of gross international investment positions in a cross section of countries we find that more open countries with larger domestic financial markets tend to hold greater quantities of foreign assets and liabilities there is some evidence that cross holdings are positively correlated with inflation volatility but negatively correlated with terms of trade volatility

analytical approximations in models of hysteresis decisions made under ongoing uncertainty and costly reversibility entail a range of the state variable where inaction is optimal which in turn produces hysteresis permanent effects of temporary shifts the range is usually defined by non linear equations that need numerical solutions in this paper a technique of analytical approximations is developed and applied to two models menu costs and investment the resulting explicit solutions help clarify why hysteresis is important even for small irreversibility in the menu cost model hysteresis is two orders of magnitude larger than under the akerlof yellen or mankiw assumptions when decisions that are costly to reverse are made under conditions of ongoing uncertainty the optimum policy usually entails a range of inertia the action should be taken only when the value of the underlying state variable becomes especially favourable and reversed only when it becomes especially unfavourable there is an intermediate range over which inaction is optimal this in turn gives rise to hysteresis starting from a value in the range of inertia if the state variable crosses the action trigger point and then returns to its original level the action will be taken but not reversed thus a temporary change will leave a permanent effect numerical solutions for models of irreversible investment show that the range of inaction is remarkably large even when the cost of reversal is small see brennan and schwartz 1985 constantinides 1986 and dixit 1989a b for examples of this unfortunately the equations tlhat determine the optimum policy are highly non linear they do not have analytical solutions therefore we lack a clearer and more general understanding of why hysteresis is numerically so important in this paper i derive analytical approximations for the solutions of more general problems of this kind when the costs of change are small the idea that small costs of change induce large amounts of inertia has been popularized in the model of akerlof and yellen 1985 mankiw 1985 and others in these models second order small costs of making price changes yield price stickiness in response to first order changes in the money supply this is a simple application of the envelope theorem but these models are static and their application to a dynamic reality must assume either permanent shocks or static expectations when there is ongoing uncertainty which is rationally expected by the decision maker the option value of the status quo enlarges the zone where inaction is optimal adding these features to the mankiw akerlof yellen may model i show that fourth order small costs of change generate first order inertia

interest rates and currency prices in a two country world abstract this paper is a theoretical study of the determination of prices interest rates and currency exchange rates set in an infinitely lived two country world which is subject both to stochastic endowment shocks and to monetary instability formulas are obtained for pricing all equity claims nominally denominated bonds and currencies and these formulas are related to earlier closely related results in the theories of money finance international trade

asymmetric error correction models for the oil gasoline price relationship abstract the existing literature on price asymmetries does not systematically investigate the sensitivity of the empirical results to the choice of a particular econometric specification this paper fills this gap by providing a detailed comparison of the three most popular models designed to describe asymmetric price behavior namely asymmetric ecm autoregressive threshold ecm and ecm with threshold cointegration each model is estimated on a common monthly data set for the gasoline markets of france germany italy spain and uk over the period 1985 2003 all models are able to capture the temporal delay in the reaction of retail prices to changes in spot gasoline and crude oil prices as well as some evidence of asymmetric behavior however the type of market and the number of countries which are characterized by asymmetric oil gasoline price relations vary across models the asymmetric ecm prescribes that long run price asymmetries are most likely to be found in the second stage of the transmission chain conversely the ecm with threshold cointegration suggests that long run price asymmetries vary across countries and markets short run price asymmetries are captured by the asymmetric ecm specification and the tar ecm the latter model suggests that all european countries are likely to be affected by asymmetries at the distribution stage while the results obtained with the asymmetric ecm are mixed

international capital mobility net versus gross stocks and flows abstract feldstein and horioka 1980 observed that net capital flows have been small in relation to domestic saving and investment flows for oecd countries in the post war period which they interpreted as evidence of low capital mobility this paper argues that the correlation between gross domestic and international financial flows can be a better indicator of capital mobilitythan net capital flows contrary to the conventional wisdom among international economists gross flows have been small in relation to gross domestic asset creation for oecd countries although by this measure the degree of capital mobility increased in the 1980s

rockets and feathers the asymmetric speed of adjustment of uk retail gasoline prices to cost changes abstract the paper develops a quadratic quantity adjustment model to test the hypothesis put forward in the recent monopolies and mergers commission report that the speed of adjustment of uk retail gasoline prices to cost changes is more rapid when costs rise than when they fall and that the adjustment path is more concentrated around the mean value on the upswing using data from 1982 to 1989 evidence of faster and more concentrated responses to cost increases were found

pooling risk among countries suppose that international sharing risk worldwide or with large numbers of countries were costly how much risk sharing could be gained in small sets or pools of countries to answer this question we compute the means and variances of poolwide gross domestic product growth for all possible pools of any size drawn from a sample of 74 countries and compare them with the means and variances of consumption growth in each country individually from the difference we infer potential diversification and welfare gains as much as two thirds of the first best full worldwide welfare gains can be obtained in groupings of as few as seven countries the largest potential gains arise from pools consisting of countries in different regions and including countries with weak institutions we argue that international risk sharing fails to emerge because the largest potential gains are among countries that do not trust each other s willingness and ability to abide by international contractual obligations

international portfolio nondiversification and exchange rate variability abstract incomplete international portfolio diversification is implied by an equilibrium models of exchange rates with nontraded goods the model can also explain the greater correlation between consumption and income within a country than between consumption across countries nontraded goods make more stringent the elasticity conditions required to explain exchange rate variability resulting from current productivity disturbances though not from disturbances to fiscal policies or the prospective return to investment the model is also consistent with international real interest rate differentials changes over time in the current account and relative wealth across nations and observed time series properties of exchange rates

risk sharing and real exchange rates the role of non tradable sector and trend shocks abstract in this paper we show that the tradable and non tradable total factor productivity tfp processes of the us and europe have unit roots and can be modeled by a vector error correction model vecm then we develop a standard two country and two good tradable and non tradable dsge model our model implies that using cointegrated tfp processes and including non tradables help solve the real exchange rate rer volatility and risk sharing puzzles cointegrated tfp shocks or trend shocks generate significant income effects and amplify the mechanisms that produce high rer volatility moreover trend shocks can break the tight link between relative consumption and rer for low and high values of trade elasticity parameters the non tradable sector in the model improves the results for the risk sharing significantly

do trade costs in goods market lead to home bias in equities abstract two of the main puzzles in international economics are the consumption and the portfolio home biases we solve for international equity portfolios in a two country two good stochastic equilibrium model with trade costs in goods markets we show that introducing trade costs as suggested by obstfeld and rogoff obstfeld m rogoff k 2000a the six major puzzles in international macroeconomics is there a common cause nber macroeconomics annual 15 is not sufficient to explain these two puzzles simultaneously on the contrary we find that trade costs create a foreign bias in portfolios for reasonable parameter values this result is robust to the addition of non tradable goods for standard calibrations of the preferences

the choice of techniques and the optimality of market equilibrium with rational expectations this paper shows that in the absence of a complete set of risk markets prices provide incorrect signals for guiding production decisions even if all individuals have rational expectations concerning the distribution of prices which will prevail on the market next period the market allocation is in general not a constrained pareto optimum essentially the only conditions under which for all technologies the market equilibrium is a constrained pareto optimum are those in which risk markets are redundant we derive the necessary and sufficient conditions for redundancy of risk markets which turn out to be extremely restrictive

a real model of the world business cycle abstract in this paper a stochastic two country log linear infinite horizon model is used to analyze the generation and transmission of economic fluctuations across countries it is argued that following a country specific supply disturbance production interdependence and unitary elasticities in consumption and production are sufficient to generate comovements in aggregate economic activity investment and trade that are persistent over time and positively correlated across countries however the empirical analysis carried out for the usa japan germany and uk for the 1960 82 period suggests that common shocks rather than trade links are responsible for this pattern of comovements

international real business cycles we ask whether a two country real business cycle model can account simultaneously for domestic and international aspects of business cycles with this question in mind we document a number of discrepancies between theory and data the most striking discrepancy concerns the correlations of consumption and output across countries in the data outputs are generally more highly correlated across countries than consumptions in the model we see the opposite

asymmetric and nonlinear pass through of crude oil prices to gasoline and natural gas prices in this article we use the recently developed nonlinear autoregressive distributedlags nardl model to examine the pass through of crude oil prices into gasoline and natural gas prices our approach allowsus to simultaneously test the short and long run nonlinearities through positive and negative partial sum decompositions of the predetermined explanatory variables it also offers the possibility to quantify the respective responses of gasoline and natural gas prices to positive and negative oil price shocks from the asymmetric dynamic multipliers the obtained results indicate that oil prices affect gasoline prices and natural gas prices in an asymmetric and nonlinear manner but the price transmission mechanism is not the same important policy implications can be learned from the empirical findings

the unequal benefits of fuel subsidies a review of evidence for developing countries summary this paper reviews evidence on the impact of fuel subsidy reform on household welfare in developing countries on average the burden of subsidy reform is substantial and is approximately neutrally distributed across income groups a 0 25 decrease in the per liter subsidy results in a 5 decrease in income for all groups more than half of this impact arises from the indirect impact on prices of other goods and services consumed by households fuel subsidies are a costly approach to protecting the poor due to substantial benefit leakage to higher income groups in absolute terms the top income quintile captures six times more in subsidies than the bottom

financial integration and international risk sharing abstract conventional wisdom suggests that financial liberalization can help countries insure against idiosyncratic risk there is little evidence however that countries have increased risk sharing despite widespread financial liberalization we show that the key to understanding this puzzling observation is that conventional wisdom assumes frictionless international financial markets while actual markets are far from frictionless financial contracts are incomplete and contract enforceability is limited when countries remove official capital controls default risk is still present as an implicit barrier to capital flows if default risk were eliminated capital flows would be six times greater and international risk sharing would increase substantially

welfare impacts of technological change on women in southern mali abstract it has often been hypothesized that new agricultural technologies could have an adverse impact on women because additional labor required of them reduces the time spent and therefore income earned from private field activities this study shows that the expansion of cotton cultivation on the household communal fields in southern mali associated with the introduction of new technologies results in increased payments to women for their increased labor on the cotton fields unfortunately these payments are small compared to the loss of revenue from private plot production thus the net effect of the expansion of household cotton cultivation is a reduction in incomes of women who cultivate private plots short run policy implications of this study are that improving women s income requires concern with their private plot earnings for example profitability of the private field crops could be increased with higher input use in the long run as land becomes even more constrained emphasis needs to be placed on institutional changes to increase women s bargaining power so that they obtain larger shares of the new income streams resulting from technological change on the communal field institutional changes already occurring in the region with the apparent objective of increasing women s and non household head men s bargaining power include organized work teams and the movement toward smaller nuclear families

accelerating food production in sub saharan africa in 1982 26 countries in africa faced acute food shortages and nutrition problems during the 1960s the continents food production per person fell 7 and during the 1970s it fell an additional 15 in only 8 countries which account for less than 15 of the regions population did per capita agricultural production actually increase in the 1970s in view of the expectation that the urban population will quadruple during the last quarter of this century present trends are intolerable and must be reversed another disturbing problem that needs urgent attention is the rapid depletion of vital topsoil estimated by the director general of the un food and agriculture organization to be a frightening 6 million hectares per annum this volume provides up to date definitions of the food and nutrition problems that face africa now and in the medium term future the book also deals with the policy needs for promoting growth of food production the concept of solving our food shortages by increasing production is the policy of the southern african development coordination conference sadcc the book also examines food policy in the context of national development strategies though potentially rich sub saharan africa is at present extremely poor in 1979 per capita gross national product gnp in the whole area was only 411 compare this with a gnp per capita of 9440 in the countries of the industrialized world the demand for improved living standards presses from virtually every quarter while available resources are extremely limited without exception each country of the region faces the problem of determining food policy in the context of its overall national development strategy several chapters in this volume by representatives from both sub saharan africa and donor countries and agencies analyze past experiences and suggest aid strategies for accelerating agricultural growth in the region several stress the point that the aid most urgently required is that which would assist our region in greater utilization of its agricultural base in order to increase overall production and lessen dependence on food aid

is a turnaround in africa possible without helping african women to farm a turnaround in africa is not possible in the short run of at least 1 decade without helping women farmers with hand hoes gain equal access to basic agricultural inputs and resources this is so because women are such active participants in farming it is estimated that for 82 countries women constitute 46 of the agricultural labor force in sub saharan africa and 31 of the force in north africa and the middle east in the long run however a turnaround is possible without helping women to farm because women farmers will be displaced as agricultural intensification occurs but because the intensification process will be extremely uneven both within and between african countries the displacement of women farmers will also be uneven thus their displacement will be blocked or slowed down in regions with sufficient land resources and land extensive family systems extensive male out migration lack of control of animal diseases or the presence of gender neutral incentives to produce in conclusion women farmers in these regions will still be the norm while those in other regions will be displaced as intensification required by a turnaround proceeds to insure that women farmers are not displaced policy planners at international national and local levels should communicate with technical experts and extension specialists about the need to incorporate women as agricultural producers with full access to yield increasing inputs in development projects

heterogeneous preferences and equilibrium trading volume abstract the representative agent lucas model stresses aggregate risk and hence does not allow us to study the impact of agents heterogeneity on the dynamics of equilibrium trading volume in this paper we investigate under what conditions non informational heterogeneity i e differences in preferences and endowments leads to nontrivial trading volume in equilibrium we present a non informational no trade theorem that provides necessary and sufficient conditions for zero equilibrium trading volume in a continuous time lucas market model with heterogeneous agents multiple goods and multiple securities we explain in detail how no trade equilibria are related to autarky equilibria portfolio autarky equilibria and peculiar financial market equilibria which play an important role in the literature on international risk sharing

econometric models of asymmetric price transmission abstract in this paper we review the existing empirical literature on price asymmetries in commodities providing a way to classify and compare different studies that are highly heterogeneous in terms of econometric models type of asymmetries and empirical findings relative to the previous literature this paper is novel in several respects first it presents a detailed and updated survey of the existing empirical contributions on price asymmetries in the transmission mechanism linking input prices to output prices second this paper presents an extension of the traditional distinction between long run and short run asymmetries to new categories of asymmetries such as contemporaneous impact distributed lag effect cumulated impact reaction time equilibrium and momentum equilibrium adjustment path regime effect regime equilibrium adjustment path each empirical study is then critically discussed in the light of this new classification of asymmetries third this paper evaluates the relative merits of the most popular econometric models for price asymmetries namely autoregressive distributed lags partial adjustments error correction models regime switching and vector autoregressive models finally we use the meta regression analysis to investigate whether the results of asymmetry tests are not model invariant and find which additional factors systematically influence the rejection of the null hypothesis of symmetric price adjustment the main results of our survey can be summarized as follows i each econometric model is specialized to capture a subset of asymmetries ii each asymmetry is better investigated by a subset of econometric models iii the general significance of the f test for asymmetric price transmission depends mainly on characteristics of the data dynamic specification of the econometric model and market characteristics overall our empirical findings confirm that asymmetry in all its forms is very likely to occur in a wide range of markets and econometric models

assessing the effect of oil price on world food prices application of principal component analysis the objective of this paper is to investigate the co movement of food prices and the macroeconomic index especially the oil price by principal component analysis to further understand the influence of the macroeconomic index on food prices we examined the food prices of seven major products eggs meat milk oilseeds rice sugar and wheat the macroeconomic variables studied were crude oil prices consumer price indexes food production indexes and gdp around the world between 1961 and 2005 we use the scree test and the proportion of variance method for determining the optimal number of common factors the correlation coefficient between the extracted principal component and the macroeconomic index varies between 0 87 for the world gdp and 0 36 for the consumer price index we find the food production index has the greatest influence on the macroeconomic index and that the oil price index has an influence on the food production index consequently crude oil prices have an indirect effect on food prices

dynamic asset allocation with relative wealth concerns in incomplete markets abstract in dynamic portfolio choice problems stochastic state variables such as stochastic volatility lead to adjustments of the optimal stock demand referred to as hedge terms or merton breeden terms by deriving an explicit solution in a two agent framework with a stochastic opportunity set we show that relative wealth concerns give rise to new hedge terms beyond the ordinary ones this is because the agents hedge against both exogenous changes in the state variable and endogenous decisions of the other agent depending on the parametrization of the model these new terms can significantly change the investors hedging demands we also show that both heterogeneity in risk aversion or relative wealth concerns can have similar effects on the heterogeneity in portfolio decisions formally we study a non cooperative non zero sum stochastic differential game for which we prove a verification theorem in a setting with an unspanned state variable

econometric analysis of aggregation in the context of linear prediction models this paper deals with the problem of aggregation where the focus of the analysis is whether to predict aggregate variables using macro or micro equations the grunfeldgriliches prediction criterion for choosing between aggregate and disaggregate equations is generalized to allow for contemporaneous covariances between the disturbances of micro equations and the possibility of different parametric restrictions on the equations of the disaggregate model a new test is proposed of the hypothesis of perfect aggregation which tests the validity of aggregation either through coefficient equality or through the stability over time of the composition of the regressors across the micro units the tools developed in the paper are then applied to employment demand functions for the uk economy disaggregated by 40 industries firstly a set of unrestricted log linear dynamic specifications are estimated for the disaggregate equations and then linear parameter restrictions are imposed as appropriate corresponding unrestricted and restricted aggregate equations are estimated two different levels of aggregation are considered aggregation over the 23 manufacturing industries and aggregation over all 40 industries of the economy in both cases the hypothesis of perfect aggregation is firmly rejected for the manufacturing industries the prediction criterion marginally favors the aggregate equation but over all industries the disaggregated equations are strongly preferred

the new open economy macroeconomics a survey since the 1995 publication of obsteld and rogoff s redux model there has been an outpouring of research on open economy dynamic general equilibrium models that incorporate imperfect competition and nominal rigidities this paper offers an interim survey of this recent literature 2001 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

the mobilization of women s labor for cash crop production a game theoretic approach in the last decade or so economists have modeled phenomena such as household labor supply fertility behavior and child survival rates using the household as the unit of analysis this paper presents data that call into question the assumption that the household is a joint decision making unit which maximizes a neoclassical household utility function the data come from a study of the mobilization of women s labor by their husbands for irrigated rice production in north cameroon the first section of this paper describes briefly the massa rice and sorghum farming system and then considers the relationship between the amount of compensation women receive from their husbands for their labor on rice production and the amount of labor they allocate to rice production the findings suggest that a bargaining model may describe the intrahousehold relations of production and distribution better than the neoclassical model the second section specifies a nash bargaining model and contrasts it with the neoclassical model of the household using the bargaining framework the third section explores in more detail possible explanations of the allocative inefficiency which seems to characterize many of the rice cultivating households

the inefficiency of the stock market equilibrium this paper establishes that when there is not a complete set of markets but more than one commodity the stock market equilibrium will not in general be a constrained pareto optimum the economy will lack both the property of exchange and production efficiency necessary conditions which must be satisfied if the economy is to be a constrained pareto optimum for all technologies are derived if all individuals have identical homothetic indifference maps then either there must be unitary price elasticities so there is no effective risk or all individuals must have the same degree of risk aversion so there is no trade on the stock market

value added trade and business cycle synchronization ever since frankel and rose s 1998 seminal paper the literature on trade and business cycle synchronization has relied on gross trade data with weak results in recent papers that carefully address omitted variable bias this paper re examines this relationship using new value added trade data for 63 advanced and emerging economies during 1995 2013 in a panel framework we identify a significantly positive impact of bilateral value added trade intensity on business cycle synchronization controlling for global common shocks country pair heterogeneity and other covariates that is absent when gross trade data are used there is also some evidence that the impact of value added trade on synchronization increases with the degree of value added intra industry trade we provide a theoretical rationale for the role of value added trade for synchronization using a simple international business cycle model that features cross country input linkages in production

savings investment and international capital flows abstract the high correlation between national savings and domestic investment rateshas been interpreted as evidence that capital is not internationally mobile this paper surveys the theory and evidence on the relationship between savings and investment in a sample of 23 oecd countries a positive correlation between savings and investment rates is found in both the short and long runs however a wide variety of models generate such co movements in savings and investment in response to exogenous disturbances even under conditions of complete financial markets thus the savings investment correlation provides little evidence on the question of international capital mobility

the sensitivity of tests of the intertemporal allocation of consumption to near rational alternatives suppose a consumer sets consumption equal to income each period rather than following the optimal permanent income decision rule how much utility does he lose this paper finds that the answer is typically less than 10 cents 1 per quarter in environments specified by popular tests on aggregate data it includes calculations of the costs of excess sensitivity and excess smoothness to income and interest rate changes and the costs of ignoring information it concludes that the theory does not make predictions for aggregate tests that are robust to small costs such as information or transactions copyright 1989 by american economic association

rockets and feathers revisited an international comparison on european gasoline markets this paper re examines the issue of asymmetries in the transmission of shocks to crude oil prices onto the retail price of gasoline relative to the previous literature the distinguishing features of the present paper are i use of updated and comparable data to carry out an international comparison of gasoline markets ii two stage modeling of the transmission of oil price shocks to gasoline prices first refinery stage and second distribution stage in order to assess possible asymmetries at either one or both stages iii use of asymmetric error correction models to distinguish between asymmetries that arise from short run deviations in input prices and from the speed at which the gasoline price reverts to its long run level iv explicit possibly asymmetric role of the exchange rate as crude oil is paid for in dollars whereas gasoline sells for different sums of national currencies v bootstrapping of f tests of asymmetries in order to overcome the lowpower problem of conventional testing procedures in contrast to several previous findings the results generally point to widespread differences in both adjustment speeds and short run responses when input prices rise or fall

real business cycles in this paper we demonstrate how certain very ordinary economic principles lead maximizing individuals to choose consumption production plans that display many of the characteristics commonly associated with business cycles our explanation is entirely consistent with i rational expectations ii complete current information iii stable preferences iv no technological change v no long lived commodities vi no frictions or adjustment costs vii no government viii no money and ix no serial dependence in the stochastic elements of the environment we also provide a completely worked out example of the type of artificial economy we have in mind the time series properties of the example exhibit some major features of observed business cycles although this type of model may not be capable of explaining all of the regularities in actual business cycles we believe that it provides a useful well defined benchmark for assessing the relative importance of factors e g monetary disturbances

the specific factors continuum model with implications for globalization and income risk abstract this paper embeds the specific factors model in the goods continuum approach of dornbusch et al 1977 1980 and applies it to analyze the effect of globalization on income risk globalization amplifies sector specific income risk induced by idiosyncratic sectoral technology shocks but tends to reduce income risk to both mobile and immobile factors induced by aggregate technology shocks that differ by country aggregate risk bears most heavily on the poorest specific factors

international risk sharing and capital mobility abstract under certain assumptions pareto efficient risk sharing implies that changes in consumption across nations will be perfectly correlated this result leads to an indicator of the welfare loss due to imperfect sharing of consumption risks across nations this indicator is used to evaluate the welfare implications of restrictions on various components of the international capital flow holding constant other components of the flow and domestic investment we find that variability in national consumption growth rates would have been considerably greater if capital flows had been restricted and that welfare would have been reduced significantly

exploring asymmetric behavior pattern from indian oil products prices using nardl and ghsom approaches abstract the present work endeavors to explore the potential asymmetries in the pricing of oil products in india where prices are not only affected by the crude oil price changes in the international markets but are also subject to government interventions in order to protect domestic consumers from this volatility historically the government of india tried to control the domestic price of petroleum products by cross subsidization and giving subsidies in this paper we analyze the impact of crude oil price on domestic oil prices by applying nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag nardl and growing hierarchical self organizing map ghsom approaches for the period of april 2005 july 2014 the ghsom has been explored through pattern analysis on the asymmetric behavior using similarity measures from the study it can be interpreted that the prices of products left to be determined by the market exhibit a strong asymmetry however pricing of the products that are monitored and controlled by the government do not exhibit any such asymmetry hence the question still remains should the government intervene in pricing petroleum products when monopolistic attitudes of large oil companies are detrimental to the interest of retail consumers

international risk sharing and capital mobility another look in a recent article brennan and solnik 1989 attempt to quantify numerically the welfare benefits of risk sharing by a group of oecd economies the result of their calculation is striking in their words p 371 the estimated welfare loss due to impairment of efficient risk sharing if capital flows were eliminated is of the order of 448 per cent of the level of consumption prevailing in the early 1970s this note argues that the brennan solnik welfare measure is faulty and leads to a substantial overstatement of the potential welfare benefits of international risk sharing within their sample of countries for standard levels of risk aversion the brennan solnik measure may overstate these benefits by as much as two orders of magnitude this is true even if one accepts as valid the empirical assumptions the authors make in calculating the consumption variability estimates that underlie their welfare conclusions

capital flows investment and exchange rates abstract this paper incorporates international capital flows into a two country monetary general equilibrium model of asset prices with investment and production we calculate theoretical covariances between investment the current account the exchange rate and the terms of trade these covariances depend upon the coefficient of relative risk aversion the magnitude and sign of a country s net international indebtedness other properties of tastes and technologies and the stochastic processes on disturbances to productivity and monetary growth rates international capital flows arise from changes in world wealth and its relative composition in foreign and domestic assets

cleaning house new perspectives on households and economic development abstract this paper provides a critical review of the recent literature on households and economic development three related points are developed 1 household activities can be analyzed in economic terms particularly if these terms are broadly defined to encompass such factors as risk and uncertainty 2 significant differences between the economic position of men women and children within the patriarchal household mean that it cannot be treated as an undifferentiated unit of analysis 3 microeconomic analysis of the household must be situated within a larger structural analysis of gender and age based inequalities and their interaction with class structure and national position within the world capitalist system