understanding heterogeneous preferences in random utility models a latent class approach a finite mixture approach toconditional logit models is developed in whichlatent classes are used to promoteunderstanding of systematic heterogeneity the model is applied to wilderness recreationin which a branded choice experiment involvingchoice of one park from a demand system wasadministered to a sample of recreationists the basis of membership in the classes orsegments in the sample involved attitudinalmeasures of motivations for taking a trip aswell as their stated preferences overwilderness park attributes the econometricanalysis suggested that four classes of peopleexist in the sample using the model toexamine welfare measures of some hypotheticalpolicy changes identified markedly differentwelfare effects than the standard singlesegment model and provided insight into thedifferential impact of alternative policies

state dependence and heterogeneity in fishing location choice to explore the distinction between state dependence and heterogeneity in repeated decisions this paper combines a mixed logit model with a state dependence parameterization from the marketing literature to study fishing location choices of commercial sea urchin divers in california it examines implications of ignoring either effect and finds in all cases that true state dependence is an important determinant of location choice consequently spatial policies like marine reserves can lead to differences in the short and long run behavioral responses of the fishing fleet under some specifications random preference parameters are statistically significant when state dependence is excluded from the model but when it is included random preference parameters are not significant in other specifications including state dependence only dampens the variability in preference parameters these results highlight the importance of gathering and analyzing diary type data for commercial fisheries as well as for similar choice problems in recreation demand

controlling for observed and unobserved site characteristics in rum models of recreation demand hatch act and state of iowa the iowa department of natural resources and the u s environmental protection agency s science to achieve results star program grant r830818

understanding the impacts of the 2007 08 global financial crisis on sustainable forest management in the brazilian amazon a case study abstract in 2007 and 2008 the world experienced a significant global financial crisis gfc several factors were perceived as drivers of the crisis however its dynamics and consequences for natural resources and the environment remain largely unknown particularly in brazil combining grounded theory and case study methodologies this research explores and contrasts the perspectives of highly knowledgeable stakeholders on how the gfc impacted sustainable forest management in the brazilian amazon using the state of para as a case study our findings indicate that the gfc cannot be considered as a unique phenomenon impacting sfm and that it is intimately linked to other political social and environmental events unfolding within brazil and at the global level decreased deforestation was perceived to have occurred due to restrained production increased risk aversion increased public awareness and enhanced government efforts towards law enforcement the forest based exporting segment was seen to suffer the most severe impacts of the crisis environmentally friendly initiatives were perceived to offer forest product differentiation in the market while investments in non market oriented initiatives were restrained our results suggest that in times of economic crisis forest policy makers need to focus on both formal and informal forest economies in order to promote sustainable forest management objectives

separability partial demand systems and consumer s surplus measures abstract in practice complete demand systems are not estimated rather either an incomplete demand system is estimated or separability is invoked and a partial demand system is estimated this paper considers the relationship between the conventional compensating variation equivalent variation and the corresponding welfare measure that can be derived from a partial demand system and the current budget allocation to the separable group even assuming the separability assumption invoked is appropriate these partial measures provide in general only a limited amount of information about the compensating variation and no information about the equivalent variation great care is therefore needed when using partial welfare measures to evaluate policy

two nested constant elasticity of substitution models of recreational participation and site choice an alternatives model and an expenditures model two demand modelsof recreational participation and s ite choice are developed an alternatives model and an expenditures model both assume maximization of utility over the year so allow for diminishing marginal utility they do not impose the restrictive assumption that where one goes on a trip isindependent of where one plansto go on other occas ions es timation iswith a nes ted constant elasticity of substitution preference ordering it is relatively easy to estimate because of global regularity it allowss itesto be complements and it hasthe potential to be locally flexible the application is to atlantic salmon fishing

spatial boundaries and choice set definition in a random utility model of recreation demand we are concerned with the definition of choice set used in random utility models of recreation demand in particular we are concerned with the spatial boundaries used to define choice sets in this paper using a model of day trip fishing in maine we examine the sensitivity of parameter and welfare estimates to changes in the spatial boundary we find that there exists some threshold distance beyond which adding more sites to the choice set has negligible effects on the estimation results

a probabilistic choice model for market segmentation and elasticity structure marketing scholars commonly characterize market structure by studying the patterns of substitution implied by brand switching though the approach is useful it typically ignores the destabilizing

a repeated nested logit model of atlantic salmon fishing participation and site choice for atlantic salmon fishing are modeled in the context of a repeated three level nested logit model consumer s surplus measures are derived for different levels of species availability in the penobscot river the most important salmon river in new england for comparison six other travel cost models are estimated these include restrictive cases of the nested logit model a partial demand model and two single site demand models comparisons across these models indicate the importance of modeling the participation decision including income effects and of adopting a nested logit structure rather than a single level logit structure

testing benefits transfer of forest recreation values over a twenty year time horizon we conduct a functional benefit transfer over 20 years of total willingness to pay based on carborne forest recreation in 52 forests using a mixed logit specification of a random utility model and geographic information systems to allow heterogeneous preferences across the population and for heterogeneity over space results show that preferences for some forest attributes such as species diversity and age as well as transport mode have changed significantly over the period updating the transfer model with present total demand for recreation improves the error margins by an average of 282 average errors of the best transfer model remain 25

impact of the financial crisis on indian commodity markets structural breaks and volatility dynamics the shocks transmitted across the financial markets during the financial crisis resulted in structural changes in commodity volatility hence understanding volatility dynamics in changing scenario is vital for derivative pricing risk management and monetary policy stabilization this paper studies the impact of the financial crisis by analyzing the following aspects 1 presence of structural break regime shift in volatility by deploying markov and wavelet model during financial crisis and 2 crisis impact on volatility dynamic behavior such as persistence leverage and long memory by deploying hybrid wavelet egarch and fractional integration spot prices of 18 commodities were examined including all sub sectors of energy metals and agriculture indian commodity indices sub indices global benchmark indices and also stock indices such as sp agricultural commodities showed faster convergence to long run equilibrium while metal and energy experienced higher persistence and attracted more financial speculation the impact of the crisis on agricultural commodities was limited to internationally traded commodities such as sugar and rubber the common breaks and different volatility dynamics have been attributed to systematic risk and to idiosyncratic components respectively it was also found that during and after the crisis more than idiosyncratic risk it was systematic risk that contributed significantly to the volatility patterns of indian commodity markets

estimating the precision of welfare measures abstract three methods for constructing standard deviation and or confidence intervals for welfare estimates have been employed in the recreation demand literature a taylor s series approximation the bootstrap and a method proposed by krinsky and robb this paper presents the results of two sets of simulation experiments designed to examine the accuracy of these methods the first simulation examines the methods accuracy in estimating the standard deviation of welfare estimates the second simulation examines the accuracy of the methods in constructing confidence intervals

static modeling of dynamic recreation behavior implications for prediction and welfare estimation abstract this paper examines the consequences of using a static model of recreation trip taking behavior when the underlying decision problem is dynamic specifically we examine the implications for trip forecasting and welfare estimation using a panel dataset of lake michigan salmon anglers for the 1996 and 1997 fishing seasons we derive and estimate both a structural dynamic model using bellman s equation and a reduced form static model with trip probability expressions mimicking those of the dynamic model we illustrate an inherent identification problem in the reduced form model that creates biased welfare estimates and we discuss the general implications of this for the interpretation of preference parameters in static models we then use both models to simulate trip taking behavior and show that although their in sample trip forecasts are similar their welfare estimates and out of sample forecasts are quite different

stimulating fuelwood consumption through public policies an assessment of economic and resource impacts based on the french forest sector model abstract stimulating renewable energy is a crucial objective in view of tackling climate change and coping with future fossil fuel scarcity in france fuelwood appears to be an important source for the renewable energy mix using the french forest sector model our paper aims to assess the impacts of three policy options to stimulate fuelwood consumption a consumer subsidy a producer subsidy and a fixed demand contract policy we explored their impacts in terms of five groups of criteria 1 forest resource dynamics 2 variations in wood products prices and quantities consumed and produced 3 trade balance 4 budgetary costs and 5 variations in agent surpluses we show that no policy option is more desirable than another on the basis of all of these criteria and that trade offs will determine which is the best policy option to be implemented

annual fees and recreation choice models of recreation behavior have typically ignored the role of fixed annual fees such as the fee for a recreational license in determining choice and welfare we demonstrate how techniques from the literature on discrete continuous choice and two part tariffs can address a situation where fixed annual fees are essential to determining the choice of a recreation site we explore how accounting for value captured by fixed fees can influence the way resource changes are assessed

the financial crisis and its impacts on global agriculture the financial crisis arose in the industrial countries but has affected developing countries through higher interest rates sharp changes in commodity prices and reductions in investment trade migration and remittances for most low income countries shocks that affect food prices or wage rates for unskilled workers seem likely to have the largest impact on poverty with the declines in key food prices associated with the crisis helping to reduce poverty while declining trade investment and remittance flows have had adverse impacts on the poor policies to address the crisis must include measures to deal with financial sector problems the resulting reductions in aggregate demand and the particular vulnerabilities of poor people given the complexity of the impacts from financial crises and commodity price shocks there is a strong case for developing better social safety net policies that can offset the adverse impacts of a wide range of different shocks on poor people without creating costly market distortions

the demand for site specific recreational activities a characteristics approach abstract a model of constrained utility maximizing behavior is developed to explain how a representative individual allocates his ski days among alternative sites the physical characteristics of the ski areas and the individual s skiing ability are explicit arguments in the utility function the budget allocation is given along with the parametric costs to ski including travel costs entrance fees equipment costs and the opportunity cost of his time shares a site s share being the proportion of ski days that the individual spends at that site are derived and assumed multinomially distributed a stochastic specification which maintains the inherent properties of the shares maximum likelihood estimation confirms the basic hypothesis that costs ability and characteristics all are important determinants of the sites shares the model explains a large proportion of the skier s allocation of ski days a multinomial logit model of skier behavior is also developed and maximum likelihood estimates of its parameters are obtained examination of the summary statistics from my model and the logit model indicates that my model predicts the skier s choice of sites better than the logit model

modeling multiple objective recreation trips with choices over trip duration and alternative sites traditionally recreation demand studies have focused on single day single activity trips despite anecdotal and empirical evidence that many recreational trips involve overnight stays and multiple purposes this paper develops a random utility model that explores how visitors choose alternative sites and trip durations for multiple objective trips we focus on a recreational activity beach visits that appear to have significant proportions of the population taking single and multiple day trips and many of the multiple day trips involve multiple objectives multiple duration and multiple objective issues are incorporated in pricing trip costs the results of the research suggest that the accepted method for incorporating travel costs into random utility models can lead to biased estimates of the structural utility parameters and consequently biased measures of welfare in a multiple objective trip setting for single and multiple day users

a latent segmentation approach to a kuhn tucker model an application to recreation demand abstract in this paper we extend the latent segmentation approach to the kuhn tucker kt model the proposed approach models heterogeneity in preferences for recreational behavior using a utility theoretical framework to simultaneously model participation and site selection decisions estimation of the latent segmentation kt model with standard maximum likelihood techniques is numerically difficult because of the large number of parameters in the segment membership functions and the utility function for each latent segment to address this problem we propose the expectation maximization em algorithm to estimate the model in the empirical section we implement the em latent segmentation kt approach to analyze a southern california beach recreation data set our empirical analysis suggests that three groups exist in the sample using the model to analyze two hypothetical beach management policy scenarios illustrates different welfare impacts across groups

the choice theory approach to market research this paper surveys economic choice theory stressing developments that permit use of data from psychometric and conjoint experiments to produce market demand forecasts alternatives to the widely used multinomial logit model are summarized and a new method for estimating multinomial probits is described an integration of choice models with attitudinal scaling and perceptual mapping within a latent variable system is described estimation of such systems under either random effects or fixed effects descriptions of heterogeneity across individuals is discussed issues in the use of choice models to describe responses from conjoint experiments are presented new regression diagnostic tests for the consistency of multinomial logit representations are discussed

welfare losses due to livestock grazing on public lands a count data systemwide treatment backcountry hikers willingness to pay for removing grazing from trails in the hoover wilderness is analyzed using a multinomial dirichlet negative binomial distribution this multivariate discrete distribution allows the direct calculation of seasonal welfare measures that are derived from an incomplete demand specification the welfare maximizing choice of activities is examined on a trail by trail basis using the results of the analysis our findings suggest that a mix of hiking and grazing activities provide the greatest social welfare

the governance of sustainable socio technical transitions a quasi evolutionary model of socio technical transitions is described in which regimes face selection pressures continuously differentiated transition contexts determine the form and direction of regime change in response to these pressures the articulation of pressures and the degree to which responses are coordinated and based on resources available within the regime define the transition context four alternative contexts are described endogenous renewal re orientation of trajectories emergent transformation and purposive transitions agency and power in the governance of regime transformation are analysed power to affect change depends on regime membership the distribution of resources for change and expectations

a finite mixture logit model of recreational angling with serially correlated random utility this article examines two issues concerning the trip taking behavior of recreational anglers over the course of a season the first is whether the random component of trip utility is serially correlated across trip occasions the second is the heterogeneity of preferences among anglers recent research has examined heterogeneity among recreational trip takers using random parameters models in this article the population of anglers is instead cast as a collection of several subpopulations distinguished by angler preferences and the method of finite mixtures is used to identify these subpopulations copyright 2002 oxford university press

environmental damage evaluation in a willingness to accept scenario a latent class approach based on familiarity in this paper we report on the results of the application of a latent class model that was designed to identify and characterize unobserved preference heterogeneity in the context of a willingness to accept wta framework involving negative environmental externalities stemming from the expansion of the port of valencia we investigated the hypothesis that respondents with greater familiarity with the targeted good and any related environmental damage would demand more compensation that is they would have a significantly higher wta based on respondents familiarity with the port of valencia and their pre existing knowledge about the negative consequences of its potential expansion three clusters based on six indicators are identified results show that contrary to what might be expected familiarity with a public good does not in all cases have a significant effect on stated wta

payment discipline depends on management ethics the main aim of the study was to identify if management ethics have a positive impact on payment discipline our sample includes 273 slovene enterprises which represent 9 1 of 2978 slovenian enterprises with 10 or more employees selected from the database of the slovenian rating agency i d o o to determine management ethics we used the corporate ethical virtues measurement instrument questionnaire the data concerning average late payments were also obtained from the database the slovenian rating agency i d o o we conducted a factor analysis using the enter method we confirmed that the influence of management ethics have a positive impact on average payment delays expressed in days

estimation and welfare analysis with large demand systems we develop an approach for estimating individual or household level preferences for a large set of quality differentiated goods and for constructing hicksian welfare measures within the demand system framework our approach uses a maximum simulated likelihood procedure to recover estimates of the structural parameters and a multistage monte carlo markov chain algorithm for constructing hicksian consumer surplus estimates we illustrate our approach with a recreation dataset consisting of day trips to 62 mid atlantic beaches

a semi parametric estimator for revealed and stated preference data an application to recreational beach visitation abstract we present a semi parametric approach for jointly estimating revealed and stated preference recreation demand models the discrete factor method dfm allows for correlation across demand equations and incorporates unobserved heterogeneity our model is a generalized negative binomial with random effects the random effect is composed of a discrete representation of unobserved heterogeneity and a factor loading that translates the heterogeneity measure into a demand effect our empirical application is to beach recreation demand in north carolina statistical evidence supports our dfm specification which imposes less restriction on model dispersion and incorporates unobserved heterogeneity in a flexible manner elasticity estimates are smaller than those derived from models with parametric specifications for unobserved heterogeneity and welfare estimates are slightly larger and less precise while parametric models clearly dominate if the specification of unobserved heterogeneity is correct the semi parametric dfm provides a flexible alternative in cases where mis specification is a potential problem

addressing preference heterogeneity multiple scales and attribute attendance with a correlated finite mixing model of tap water choice unobserved heterogeneity of error scale in choice models is a recent extension of the better investigated issue of heterogeneity of taste intensity it is achieved by fitting choice panel data with specifications that simultaneously handle inter personal variation in scale and taste the aim is to separate differences in preference intensities across respondents from differences in the degree of consistency in choice behaviour or preference discrimination while accounting for correlation between the two another recent substantive issue in choice data analysis is attribute non attendance we develop a finite mixing model to address simultaneously the three issues above we empirically prove the concept on stated preference data related to tap water attributes in a study for industry regulation

utility in willingness to pay space a tool to address confounding random scale effects in destination choice to the alps we compare two approaches for estimating the distribution of consumers willingness to pay wtp in discrete choice models the usual procedure is to estimate the distribution of the utility coefficients and then derive the distribution of wtp which is the ratio of coefficients the alternative is to estimate the distribution of wtp directly we apply both approaches to data on site choice in the alps we find that the alternative approach fits the data better reduces the incidence of exceedingly large estimated wtp values and provides the analyst with greater control in specifying and testing the distribution of wtp copyright 2008 oxford university press

choice set formation for outdoor destinations the role of motivations and preference discrimination in site selection for the management of public expenditures on protected areas effective public expenditure currently dominates the management focus of many protected areas this calls for explicit modeling of constraints and motivations that respectively obstruct and stimulate visits to selected outdoor destinations choice set formation is the result of screening and or inclusion of specific sites alternatives to form the set of sites considered in real choices evidence shows that the omission of a structural representation of choice set formation is harmful to econometric inference yet the literature has largely ignored the underlying behavioral phenomenon we show using a discrete choice experiment involving selection among seven recreational sites in an italian national park that choice set formation is behaviorally relevant even after controlling for preference discrimination motivations why visit are important determinants of preliminary site screening for choice set inclusion as well as site selection justifying the additional value of such modeling extension

who cares about environmental stigmas and does it matter a latent segmentation analysis of stated preferences for real estate this article uses latent segmentation analysis to estimate the benefits of contaminant cleanup in waukegan harbor illinois survey responses to attitudinal and perception questions provide significant information about the existence of distinct preference groups by comparison the predictive usefulness of demographic covariates is unclear the expected aggregate willingness to pay of waukegan homeowners for full cleanup is approximately equivalent to a 20 increase in the market value of homes the aggregate estimate is little affected by the identification of preference clusters

inducing patterns of correlation and substitution in repeated logit models of recreation demand repeated logit models are among the most commonly applied methods for modeling seasonal recreation demand in this article we examine the capabilities of the repeated nested logit and repeated mixed logit models to capture patterns of error correlation and demand substitution particular attention is paid to the use of the mixed logit framework to generalize the strong assumptions on correlation patterns across sites and choice occasions imbedded in the nested logit model we examine the implications for the range of price elasticities allowed in both models based on the implied correlation structures copyright 2002 oxford university press

the opportunity cost of travel time as a noisy wage fraction few issues are more important to welfare estimation with recreation demand models than the specification of the opportunity cost of travel time the two most common approaches to specifying this cost treat it as a fixed fraction of the recreationist s wage and either estimate the fraction done infrequently or assume it takes some value done commonly with references to results from the commute time literature used to justify the latter however these approaches lack firm conceptual rationales and the consequences of using them are not fully understood recognizing that information limitations often preclude more general approaches we use a joint recreation travel labor supply model to show that under relatively modest assumptions the opportunity cost of travel time can be expressed as a wage fraction with noise this formulation is straightforward to implement as part of random parameters based recreation demand models we then evaluate the welfare consequences of using the two approaches noted above which are special cases of the noisy wage fraction specification our results suggest that the more critical restriction to relax in opportunity cost of travel time specifications is the absence of noise rather than the specific level of the wage fraction

dissecting the tragedy a spatial model of behavior in the commons abstract much of the discussion of the tragedy of the commons focuses on aggregate impacts often in data poor developing country settings few non experimental empirical studies shed light on contextual circumstances driving the extent of rent dissipation and overexploitation we utilize a high resolution data set to estimate a behavioral model of fishermen s spatial choices a unique policy setting allows us to measure the degree to which individual fishermen s choices appear aimed at mitigating the tragedy of the commons in a small numbers setting we find evidence of partial mitigation in excess of what we would expect under pure self interest but short of what would occur under group maximizing behavior we also examine how contextual factors in the fishery shape the degree of cooperation within the fishing season and find evidence that competition for the common pool resource distorts fishermen s implicit cost of distance creating a form of common property inertia

the travel cost model for lake recreation a comparison of two methods for incorporating site quality and substitution effects this paper empirically illustrates how different assumptions regarding recreationists decision making behavior affect the predicted changes in recreational activity given a water quality improvement a multinomial logit model which reallocates visits away from other sites to the improved site predicts a smaller outward shift of the recreationist s demand curve than the more traditional travel cost model which does not assume any reallocation of visits among sites

a comparison of welfare estimates from four models for linking seasonal recreational trips to multinomial logit models of site choice we compare four methods of linking a site choice random utility model to a seasonal trip model the four approaches are those proposed by morey et al 1993 am j agric econom 75 578 592 hausman et al 1995 j public econom 56 1 30 parsons and kealy 1995 j environ econom management29 357 367 and feather et al 1995 j environ econom management29 214 227 we estimate the alternative models using a common data set and calculate a change in welfare for two policy scenarios across the models we find that there is little practical difference between the approaches of morey et al and hausman et al they are nearly the same mathematically and the welfare estimates in our empirical example are quite close the approaches of parsons and kealy and feather et al generated welfare estimates that were substantially different from the previous two approaches as well as from each other they also generated results that reveal the inconsistencies between their site choice and season trip models

valuing genetic resources in peasant economies the case of hairless creole pigs in yucatan abstract we report the results of a choice experiment study to model preferences over a selection of breed traits of creole pigs the study was conducted amongst households of backyard producers and small farmers rearing this local breed in yucatan mexico hypothetical choice data were collected to estimate the preference of households over alternative pigs profiles whose attributes distinguish creole pigs from the potentially more productive yet less adapted exotic breeds currently threatening to severely displace this locally adapted animal genetic resource angr the observed choices are employed to estimate a series of random utility models whose results are first tested for preference equality between households and small farmers then endogenous segmentation is allowed within households by means of latent class models stated preference based estimates are found to be of the same magnitude as revealed preference producers costs as a consequence the method is deemed to be appropriate for the valuation of non market functions in production estimates conditional on household characteristics are then presented and discussed

perceptions versus objective measures of environmental quality in combined revealed and stated preference models of environmental valuation abstract this study examines perceptions and objective attribute measures in discrete choice models of recreation site choice behavior these forms of attribute measurement are examined in individual and combined revealed preference stated preference models our results suggest that the model based on perceptions slightly outperforms the models based on objective attribute measures however issues such as the definition of the choice set and the measurement of welfare present significant challenges when using perceptions data

economic impacts of marine reserves the importance of spatial behavior abstract marine biologists have shown virtually unqualified support for managing fisheries with marine reserves signifying a new resource management paradigm that recognizes the importance of spatial processes in exploited systems most modeling of reserves employs simplifying assumptions about the behavior of fishermen in response to spatial closures we show that a realistic depiction of fishermen behavior dramatically alters the conclusions about reserves we develop estimate and calibrate an integrated bioeconomic model of the sea urchin fishery in northern california and use it to simulate reserve policies our behavioral model shows how economic incentives determine both participation and location choices of fishermen we compare simulations with behavioral response to biological modeling that presumes that effort is spatially uniform and unresponsive to economic incentives we demonstrate that optimistic conclusions about reserves may be an artifact of simplifying assumptions that ignore economic behavior

compensating variation and hicksian choice probabilities in random utility models that are nonlinear in income in this paper we discuss hicksian demand and compensating variation in the context of discrete choice we first derive hicksian choice probabilities and the distribution of the random expenditure function in the general case when the utilities are nonlinear in income we subsequently derive exact and simple formulae for the expenditure and choice probabilities under price policy changes conditional on the initial utility level this is of particular interest for welfare measurement because it enables the researcher to compute the distribution of compensating variation in a simple way we also derive formulae for the joint distribution of expenditure the choice before and after a policy change has been introduced

calibrating benefit function transfer to assess the conservation reserve program benefit transfer offers an inexpensive alternative to conducting an original study to determine economic value unfortunately benefit transfers can also result in biased welfare estimates in this paper we suggest a method of calibrating the benefit transfer to reduce this bias an empirical example to determine the benefits of the conservation reserve program on water based recreation illustrates the potentially large biases that can result if the transfer is not calibrated

sector based political analysis of energy transition green shift in the forest policy regime in france abstract this article examines energy transition political process from a sector based approach through the analysis of recent shift in the french forest policy regime we demonstrate that since 2007 energy transition policies have led to a harvesting turn within the french forest policy framework meaning that priority is given to wood mobilisation mainly for biomass uses in addition our findings suggest that the political authority wielded by the state over forest policy has shifted from forest administrative services to energy agencies and local authorities finally we show that although implementation of the harvesting turn is a cause of sectoral and inter sectoral tensions energy transition challenge also contributes to a process of re institutionalisation of mediation relationships among forestry stakeholders and wood based industries representatives the article concludes by arguing that sectors should retain relevant institutional frameworks for actors when choosing political arrangements required for implementing energy transition policy

nonlinear income effects in random utility models revisiting the accuracy of the representative consumer approximation this article investigates the implications of nonlinear income effects in random utility models rum for measuring general equilibrium welfare impacts a popular approach in applied welfare analysis is to approximate the expected compensating variation cv for an amenity change as the cv of a representative consumer whose indirect utility is given by the expected maximum utility however this approach can be misleading in the case of nonmarginal changes as it implies that changes in income do not affect the consumer s choice in this case the true expected cv can be obtained via simulation empirical applications to recreational demand find that the bias from the representative approach is small this article re evaluates the accuracy of the representative consumer approximation in the context of measuring the general equilibrium welfare impacts of large environmental changes our findings suggest that though the representative consumer approximation could lead to biased point estimates of the expecte

a discrete choice model of recreational participation site choice and activity valuation when complete trip data are not available abstract a discrete choice model of the demand for site specific recreational activities is developed and estimated it simultaneously predicts both how many trips the individual will take and which site will be chosen on each trip the model is formulated to estimate demand when the data set reports the total number of trips in a given time period but the actual destinations for only a subset of the total the model also includes a correction for sample selectivity bias the application is marine recreational fishing the consumer s surplus associated with any change in supply conditions is derived and used to assess the impact of changes in species availability

ecological modernisation new perspectives abstract ecological modernisation understood as systematic eco innovation and its diffusion has by far the largest potential to achieve environmental improvements in general the market logic of modernisation and competition for innovation combined with the market potential of global environmental needs serve as important driving forces behind ecological modernisation in recent times however additional factors like rising energy prices or fears from climate change have favoured the rise of this innovation based approach to environmental policy the article deals with two special driving forces first there is growing evidence for the importance of smart environmental regulation secondly the increasingly complex actor constellation of global environmental governance leads to mounting business risks for polluters and thereby exerts pressure for eco innovation despite these favourable framework conditions the strategy of ecological modernisation nonetheless faces a number of inherent limitations these include the unavailability of marketable technological solutions for relevant environmental problems like the loss of species the rebound effect neutralising the incremental environmental improvements through economic growth the dilemma of the n curve as well as resistance by modernisation losers against this background structural solutions seem indispensable here eco innovations should be supported by transition management or ecological structural policy

a latent class approach to tourists length of stay abstract in this paper a conditional demand function is estimated for the length of stay at a tourist destination the microeconomic model specifies the demand for the length of stay conditional on the remaining holiday characteristics that the tourist has chosen the destination type of accommodation etc the empirical model uses a latent class truncated poisson regression which acknowledges the existence of groups or segments of demand with different preferences in the case under study a distinction is made between two segments with a preference for either a longer or shorter holiday the statistical model also resolves a problem of multimodality acknowledged in previous analyses to be one of the main characteristics of this variable

a household based nonparametric test of demand theory a nonparametric test of demand theory determining the consistency of price expenditure data with the generalized axiom of revealed preference is applied to household macroeconomic data for the first time the fraction of consumption bundle comparisons that violate the generalized axiom of revealed preference is proposed as a summary statistic to indicate the consistency of a data set with revealed preference axioms this violation rate is calculated among consumption pairs with similar expenditures to increase the power of the test the results suggest that similar households consumption choices and budget constraints are generally consistent with the joint hypotheses of optimizing behavior and common preferences copyright 1995 by mit press

combining discrete and continuous representations of preference heterogeneity a latent class approach unobserved preference heterogeneity has been widely recognized as a critical issue not only for modelling choice behaviour but also for policy analysis this paper examines alternative approaches for incorporating heterogeneity in recreational demand we apply a hybrid model combining discrete and continuous heterogeneity representations of tastes to capture the defining features of both the latent class and the random parameter logit specifications this model allows for the joint estimation of discrete segments and within segment heterogeneity providing a richer interpretation of preference heterogeneity a database of recreational trips to forest sites in mallorca has been used to compare the empirical performance of this hybrid approach with common specifications such as the conditional logit the random parameter logit and the latent class model

a discussion of using angler characteristics and attitudinal data to identify environmental preference classes a latent class model in the current issue of environmental and resource economics morey et al 2006 discuss a new approach to using attitudinal data in latent class modeling we compare this approach with the one taken in boxall and adamowicz 2002 in the context of a discrete choice random utility framework with heterogeneous preferences we derive the respective likelihood functions of the two approaches to show that they are structurally similar and discuss their implications for the use of attitudinal data we conclude with a discussion comparing the relative merits of latent class and random parameters mixed logit modeling offering the view that as a practical matter choosing between them depends on the analyst s judgment about the correlation of preference parameters

accounting for stochastic shadow values of time in discrete choice recreation demand models abstract in this paper a discrete choice recreation demand model that explicitly accounts for a stochastic shadow value of time function is proposed using data from a survey of san diego beach users the stochastic shadow value of time labor supply and beach choice are jointly estimated results from this joint estimation approach are compared with the familiar two step approach that estimates labor supply first and uses predicted values of time in the recreational site choice model the approaches produce markedly different welfare measures with the two step model which does not account for unobserved variability of time values predicting significantly higher values a monte carlo simulation illustrates how ignoring the stochastic nature of shadow value of time in discrete choice recreation demand models can bias model parameters and hence welfare estimates

feedstock diversification for biodiesel production in brazil using the policy analysis matrix pam to evaluate the impact of the pnpb and the economic competitiveness of alternative oilseeds abstract while biodiesel feedstock diversification is a main objective of the brazilian national program for the production and use of biodiesel pnpb in portuguese its achievement has remained elusive and biodiesel is predominantly produced from soybean 75 this research uses the policy analysis matrix pam approach to evaluate the pnpb effects and compare the economic efficiency and the competitiveness of biodiesel from three oilseeds soybean rapeseed and sunflower in contrast to papers that present results of experimental biodiesel production initiatives this paper explores the case of representative production chains best available technology and management practices the findings indicate that biodiesel production is competitive from the three oilseeds but the profitability of biodiesel from the soybean is notably higher the tax breaks and subsidies provided by the pnpb have a positive impact on the profitability of biodiesel production chains 7 43 for soybean 3 88 for rapeseed 5 53 for sunflower these results are encouraging and suggest two actions i to review the incentive policies tax reduction and payments to farmers of the different crops pay for oil content instead of crop yield and ii to invest in organizational and managerial approaches in the alternative oilseed agricultural systems to improve their technical and economic efficiency

deriving and testing efficient estimates of wtp distributions in destination choice models estimation of welfare measures is often a dominant driver in the empirical literature on nonmarket valuation to this end qualitative choice models based on random utility theory have been widely employed in outdoor recreation studies a frequent goal of applied studies has been the estimation of welfare changes associated with site attribute changes at recreation sites in order to inform regulatory policy and resource management we review the evolution of the methodology of random utility theory in this field with a focus on taste heterogeneity models and then focus on the recent proposal of specifying utility in the wtp space train k weeks m 2005 discrete choice models in preference space and willing to pay space in scarpa r alberini a eds applications of simulation methods in environmental and resource economics chapter 1 springer dordrecht pp 1 16 our empirical application is on outdoor alpine recreation data we emphasize the efficiency and direct testing that using the maximum simulated likelihood estimator affords to practitioners using the wtp space approach and illustrate these with examples

environmental quality preference and benefit estimation in multinomial probit models a simulation approach simulated maximum likelihood is used to estimate a random parameter multinomial probit model of destination choice for recreational fishing trips formulated to accommodate varying tastes and varying perceptions of environmental quality across individuals the restricted likelihood ratio test strongly rejects the independent probit model which is similar to the independent logit model in both the parameter and benefit estimates furthermore both the krinsky robb and bootstrapping procedures suggest that the benefit standard deviation of an environmental policy is found to be markedly lower higher when heterogeneous preferences are taken into account

the value of changes in deer season length an application of the nested multinomial logit model increasing deer populations can be controlled through manipulatingharvest limits or season length while such actions often result in benefitsto hunters both motorists and the agricultural sector also benefit as alower deer population leads to fewer incidences of harmful human deerencounters traditional recreation demand models are often employed toexamine the welfare implications of changes in daily hunting bag limits studies measuring the effects of changes in season length however arenoticeably absent from the literature this study uses a nested randomutility model to examine hunter choice over site and season selection toderive the values of changes in season length

a latent class approach to modeling endogenous spatial sorting in zonal recreation demand models a method for incorporating unobserved heterogeneity into aggregate count data frameworks is presented and used to control for endogenous spatial sorting in zonal recreation models the method is based on latent class analysis which has become a popular tool for analyzing heterogeneous preferences with individual data but has not yet been applied to aggregate count data the method is tested using data on backcountry hikers for a southern california study site and performs well for relatively small numbers of classes the latent class model produces substantially smaller welfare estimates compared to a constrained version that assumes homogeneity throughout the population

a joint latent class model combining likert scale preference statements with choice data to harvest preference heterogeneity in addition to choice questions revealed and stated choices preference surveys typically include other questions that provide information about preferences preference statement data include questions on the importance of different attributes of a good or the extent of agreement with a particular statement the intent of this paper is to model and jointly estimate preference heterogeneity using stated preference choice data and preference statement data the starting point for this analysis is the belief that the individual has preferences and both his her choices and preference statements are manifestations of those preferences our modeling contribution is linking the choice data and preference statement data in a latent class framework estimation is straightforward using the e m algorithm even though our model has hundreds of preference parameters our estimates demonstrate that 1 within a preference class the importance anglers associate with different green bay site characteristics is in accordance with their responses to the preference statements 2 estimated across class utility parameters for fishing green bay are affected by the preference statement data 3 estimated across class preference statement response probabilities are affected by the inclusion of the choice data and 4 both data sets influence the number of classes and the probability of belonging to a class as a function of the individual s type

using angler characteristics and attitudinal data to identify environmental preference classes a latent class model a latent class model of environmental preference groups is developed and estimated with only the answers to a set of attitudinal questions economists do not typically use this type of data in estimation group membership is latent unobserved the intent is to identify and characterize heterogeneity in the preferences for environmental amenities in terms of a small number of preference groups the application is to preferences over the fishing characteristics of green bay anglers answered a number of attitudinal questions including the importance of boat fees species catch rates and fish consumption advisories on site choice the results suggest that green bay anglers separate into a small number of distinct classes with varying preferences and willingness to pay for a pcb free green bay the probability that an angler belongs to each class is estimated as function of observable characteristics of the individual estimation is with the expectation maximization e m algorithm a technique new to environmental economics that can be used to do maximum likelihood estimation with incomplete information as explained a latent class model estimated with attitudinal data can be melded with a latent class choice model

measuring birdwatchers preferences a case for using online networks and mixed mode surveys abstract this paper reports findings derived from a study of birdwatchers in the azores the subject was birdwatchers preferences for given management actions designed to improve the attractiveness of bird watching sites in the absence of official statistics on this market segment use was made of a mixed mode survey incorporating both on site and off site surveys and the use of on line social networks and communications tools the variable willingness to stay more time at the site was used as a welfare measure it has the advantage that it can be used to demonstrate the significant returns of eco tourism to local communities two findings emerge first tourists practicing wildlife viewing and nature based activities are less worried about infrastructures and care more about biodiversity and habitat quality and second the research technique appears to be successful when surveying seasonal recreation communities that are small and socially cohesive

the intuition behind income effects of price changes in discrete choice models and a simple method for measuring the compensating variation small and rosen s econometrica 49 1 105 130 1981 method for measuring consumer surplus using discrete choice models has been widely adopted in public policy analysis for the case of a price change the present paper elucidates five theoretical assumptions inherent within small and rosen s measure and employs indifference maps to demonstrate that this measure is only applicable to the context of a single discrete choice free of non linear income effects the paper argues that where non linear income effects are present the aforementioned theoretical assumptions should be relaxed and the consumption context revised from discrete choice to discrete continuous demand furthermore the paper proposes a simple analytical method for approximating the expected hicksian compensating variation in the presence of non linear income effects and compares the empirical performance of this method against existing methods using data from morey et al am j agric econ 75 3 578 592 1993 as well as offering a simple approximation the proposed method yields insights on the potential range of the compensating variation depending on the extent of switching between choice alternatives and on the attribution of the compensating variation to the relevant choice alternatives

heat or power how to increase the use of energy wood at the lowest cost abstract we compute the optimal subsidy level for fuelwood consumption that makes it possible to achieve the french biomass energy consumption target for this purpose we model the competition and trade offs between the consumption of fuelwood for heat fw h and the consumption of fuelwood for electricity fw e to do so we couple a forest sector model with an electricity simulation model and we test different scenarios combining fw h and fw e that account for contrasting potential increases in the carbon price and the potential reduction in the number of nuclear plants we assess the implications of these scenarios on 1 the budgetary costs for the government 2 industrial wood producers profits 3 cost savings in the power sector for the different scenarios tested and 4 the carbon balance we show that the scenario with the highest carbon price and the lowest number of nuclear plants is the least expensive from a budgetary perspective indeed when associated with a high carbon price co firing may increase fw e demand with a lower subsidy level which makes it possible to reduce the cost of reaching the target however in this case fw e crowds out part of fw h which may cause political and economic issues from a carbon balance perspective an fw h only scenario performs better than any other scenario that combines fw h and fw e due to the relatively low emissions factors of alternative technologies for electricity generation and in particular nuclear energy

does accounting for preference heterogeneity improve the forecasting of a random utility model a case study abstract this paper examines the out of sample forecasting performance of several random utility models of recreation behavior the application is salmon fishing on lake michigan in 1996 and 1997 with the quality of fishing as measured by catch rates better in 1997 than in 1996 the models examined are a logit model two random parameters logit rpl models and a latent class logit lcl model results indicate that the rpl and lcl models forecast equally well and by at least one measure the logit model outperforms them both results also raise the possibility that recreational fishing decisions have a dynamic component

sectoral systems of innovation and production the concept sectoral system of innovation and production provides a multidimensional integrated and dynamic view of sectors it is proposed that a sectoral system is a set of products and the set of agents carrying out market and non market interactions for the creation production and sale of those products a sectoral systems has a specific knowledge base technologies inputs and demand agents are individuals and organizations at various levels of aggregation they interact through processes of communication exchange co operation competition and command and these interactions are shaped by institutions a sectoral system undergoes change and transformation through the co evolution of its various elements 2002 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

effects on welfare measures of alternative means of accounting for preference heterogeneity in recreational demand models multiattribute revealed preference data are used to investigate heterogeneity in a sample of kayakers for a panel of whitewater sites in ireland this article focuses on a comparison of preference heterogeneity using a random parameter logit model with correlated tastes and a latent class model in terms of the implications for welfare measures of environmental quality and site access changes recreationalists skill levels are found to affect preferences in both approaches statistics for the estimated distribution of welfare changes for the average respondent are computed for changes in site attributes but contrary to previous work these are found to be of similar magnitude

sampling and aggregation issues in random utility model estimation measurement of nonmarket values often involves subjective judgments since these judgments may influence results they should be carefully considered i focus on an aspect of subjective choice relating to the estimation of random utility models such models require specification of each recreationalist s choice set whether an individual perceives his choice set as composed of all possible alternatives a few popular alternatives or collections of spatially aggregated alternatives is an important judgment affecting the conclusions

a semiparametric smooth coefficient estimator for recreation demand we introduce a semiparametric smooth coefficient estimator for recreation demand data that allows more flexible modeling of preference heterogeneity we show that our sample of visitors each has an individual statistically significant price coefficient estimate leading to clearly nonparametric consumer surplus and willingness to pay wtp distributions we also show mean wtp estimates that are different in economically meaningful ways for every demographic variable we have for our sample of beach visitors this flexibility is valuable for future researchers who can include any variables of interest beyond the standard demographic variables we have included here and the richer results price elasticities consumer surplus and wtp estimates are valuable to planners and policymakers who can easily see how all these estimates vary with characteristics of the population of interest

recreation demand models with taste differences over people we estimate random parameter logit models of anglers choice of fishing site the models generalize logit by allowing coefficients to vary randomly over anglers rather than being fixed the models do not exhibit the restrictive independence from irrelevant alternatives property of logit and can represent any substitution pattern estimation explicitly accounts for the fact that the variation in coefficients over anglers induces correlation in unobserved utility over trips by the same angler willingness to pay for improved fish stock and the value to anglers of specific sites are calculated from the models and compared with the estimates obtained from a standard logit model

brand choice and purchase frequency revisited an application to recreation behavior the role that total purchases play in determining the choice among brands has been considered in microeconomic theory for quite some time but for traditional goods only consumption of outdoor recreation is an unusual good most often measured using an individual s recreational trip adding the trips made on a number of choice occasions seems the obvious way to aggregate this good but doing so leads to several problems in defining a meaningful price index the hicks leontief conditions for aggregation suggest that trips to destinations may be thought of as brand choices on consumption occasions andthe continuous analogue to total purchases may in fact be the individual s total travel an empirical example of the model is used to estimate welfare impacts for a group of anglers

respondent experience and contingent valuation of environmental goods abstract respondent experience i e a respondent s information set has long been suspected to influence contingent valuation estimates of environmental values we assess the influence of experience by explicitly modeling the relationship between respondent experience and both fitted individual resource values and the conditional variance of these estimated values using three different joint specifications for experience and wtp normal censored normal poisson censored normal and zero inflated poisson censored normal we find discrete jumps in resource values as experience increases from zero and that more experienced respondents have smaller conditional variances simulation of arbitrary levels of experience allows standardization of the amount of information when developing welfare estimates

protesting and justifying a latent class model for contingent valuation with attitudinal data this article develops a latent class model for estimating willingness to pay wtp for public goods using simultaneously contingent valuation cv and attitudinal data to identify individuals with similar characteristics such as wtp and protest attitudes we find evidence that the answer to the cv question influences the responses to the attitudinal questions in our case this influence reflects rational behavior budget constraint issues and justification biases related to protest reasons such as lack of trust in institutions or fairness issues with respect to the distribution of the burden of preservation the results from our empirical application confirm the importance of accounting for those biases

narrow choice sets in a random utility model of recreation demand we consider the implications of narrow choice sets on welfare estimation in a random utility model of recreation demand we hypothesize that careful formulation of the choice set focusing on the sites of policy interest and their closest substitutes will give reasonably accurate welfare estimates we use nearby sites as close substitutes and treat more distant sites as aggregate alternatives in our application to fishing in maine we find that the welfare estimates are rather sensitive to narrowing choice sets in this manner the sensitivity largely tracts variation in the estimated travel cost coefficient across the different models considered