are ghettos good or bad spatial separation of racial and ethnic groups may theoretically have positive or negative effects on the economic performance of those groups we examine the effects of segregation on outcomes for blacks in schooling employment and single parenthood we find that blacks in more segregated areas have significantly worse outcomes than blacks in less segregated areas we control for the endogeneity of location choice using instruments based on political factors topographical features and residence before adulthood a one standard deviation decrease in segregation would eliminate one third of the black white differences in most of our outcomes

financial aid debt management and socioeconomic outcomes post college effects of merit based aid abstract prior research has demonstrated that financial aid can influence both college enrollments and completions but less is known about its post college consequences this study is the first to link college and financial aid information to credit bureau data later in life enabling us to examine the impacts of grant aid on homeownership neighborhood characteristics and credit outcomes we use a regression discontinuity rd strategy to identify causal effects of the wv promise scholarship a broad based state merit aid program up to 10 years after college entry the rd is imperfect because our sample is limited to college students and the scholarship program increased enrollment but there is little evidence of selection on observables at the threshold we find that scholarship recipients near the test score cutoff for eligibility are more likely to earn a graduate degree are more likely to own a home and live in higher income neighborhoods effects on annual earnings and credit outcomes are similarly positive but imprecise these positive effects are primarily due to substantial reductions in time to degree rather than to reduced student debt upon graduation

measuring the impacts of teachers ii teacher value added and student outcomes in adulthood abstract are teachers impacts on students test scores value added a good measure of their quality this question has sparked debate partly because of a lack of evidence on whether high value ad

inequality fairness and social capital we study the impact of unjust inequality on social trust and trustworthiness and its separate effect on the economically successful and the unsuccessful in a controlled economic experiment we find evidence for a negative effect of unfair economic inequality on social interactions probing the boundaries of this effect we document that this erosion of social capital critically depends on the context if a well off person is not directly responsible for the outcome of the worse off person then we observe no negative effects on trust and trustworthiness in the aggregate moreover our data do not support the view that higher status or wealth leads to an erosion of pro social attitudes the successful are always more generous groups of unsuccessful persons are least efficient and least generous in the trust game

the two faces of competition dynamic resourcefulness and the hypercompetitive shift competition in the american economy has fundamentally changed over the last few decades from static to dynamic this study labels this important change the hypercompetitive shift and documents it across 200 industries of the us manufacturing sector during i958 to 1991 for industries that undergo a hypercompetitive shift there is an increase in the cross firm variance in performance and a rotation in the value rivalry relationship from a negative association to an inverted u as a consequence of these competitive changes the strategic focus of firms shifts from careful exploitation of given highly durable strategic assets to the steady creation of many new rapidly depreciable ones the key driver of hypercompetitive shift is the dynamic resourcefulness of an industry or the ease with which new strategic assets can be created determinants of dynamic resourcefulness include the dynamism of related transactors notably consumers and suppliers the knowledge base of the industry and structural condi

building the stock of college educated labor half of college students drop out without completing a degree this paper establishes a causal link between college costs and degree completion i use quasi experimental methodology to analyze two state scholarship programs the programs increase the share of the exposed population with a college degree by three percentage points with stronger effects among women a cost benefit analysis indicates that the programs are socially efficient at rates of return to schooling as low as 5 percent even with the offer of free tuition many students continue to drop out suggesting tuition costs are not the only impediment to college completion

prior conditions and early international commitment the mediating role of domestic mindset our study investigates why some firms engage in low international commitments such as exports in the early phases of internationalization whereas others leapfrog the internationalization process and start with high international commitments in the form of foreign direct investment fdi process models of internationalization propose that firms start with low commitment activities and gradually increase their commitments to international markets however recent empirical evidence has shown that many firms make high international commitments from the start our findings suggest that domestic resources and competitive action propensity affect early international commitments indirectly through domestic mindsets a domestic mindset refers to the knowledge structures of the top management team prior to starting international activities based on their managerial experience and learning in domestic markets our results suggest that knowledge and learning gained in domestic markets through diverse resource and competitive activities may be crucial in early international commitments

uncertainty in sales and inventory behaviour in the u s trade sectors this paper investigates uncertainty in sales and inventory behavior for the u s wholesale and retail trade sectors first using a vector error correction model with garch m the authors find that the uncertainty measured by forecast error variance in sales does not affect inventory behavior in both trade sectors second using forecast error variance decomposition and estimated permanent components they observe that the uncertainty may be attributed more to demand shocks than to cost shocks

building the stock of college educated labor revisited in a recent paper in the journal of human resources dynarski 2008 used data from the 1 percent 2000 census public use microdata sample pums files to demonstrate that merit scholarship programs in georgia and arkansas increased the stock of college educated individuals in those states this paper replicates the results in dynarski 2008 but we also find important differences in the results between the 1 percent and 5 percent pums especially for women we also demonstrate that the author s use of clustered standard errors given the small number of clusters and only two policy changes severely understates confidence intervals

taking stock a critical assessment of recent research on inventories empirical and theoretical aspects of inventory behavior became hot topics in the 1950s and early 1960s no one seemed to notice the tension that was developing between the emerging macroeconomic and microeconomic views of inventories macroeconomists routinely thought of inventories as a destabilizing factor yet the prevailing micro theory viewed inventories as a stabilizing factor it was a fascinating question that was barely explored instead somewhat inexplicably interest in inventories dried up as if inventories were of minor economic significance and little intrinsic interest by the early 1980s then economists once again knew something they had known in the 1950s that inventory investment is of first order importance in business cycles but they were also beginning to realize that the standard production smoothing buffer stock model of inventories was in deep trouble this paper focuses on developments since that realization

the natural logic of management policy making its implications for the survival of an organization a process theoretic approach seldom used but not without promise for organizational behavior research is employed to postulate a process model of the natural logic evident in organizational policy making the model is used to explain how the policies of a sample firm for which 20 years of data are available became adopted and how together with critical events this caused the firm to evolve in particular directions rather than others implications of the study are put forward in terms of identifying pathologies of the policy making process some prescriptions are put forward for the proper control of organizations by supervisory bodies such as boards of directors it is suggested that management science in the form of systematic procedures for adaptive organizational design and updatable cause maps may have an important future role to play in senior management affairs

conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market abstract we investigate the existence of a risk premium in the foreign exchange market based on the conditional variance of market forecast errors the forecast errors are assumed to follow the arch process introduced by engle 1982 estimation and diagnostic testing of the model are discussed and results are presented for the currencies of the united kingdom france germany japan and switzerland

inventories sales uncertainty and financial strength abstract we investigate the empirical linkages between sales uncertainty and firms inventory investment behavior while controlling for firms financial strength using large panels of manufacturing firms from several european countries we find that higher sales uncertainty leads to larger stocks of inventories we also identify an indirect effect of sales uncertainty on inventory accumulation through the financial strength of firms our results provide evidence that financial strength mitigates the adverse effects of uncertainty

why is production more volatile than sales theory and evidence on the stockout avoidance motive for inventory holding this paper argues that the macroeconomically interesting features of inventory behavior are well captured by a model in which firms face only demand uncertainty with a nonnegativity constraint on inventories empirical implications of the stockout avoidance model of inventory behavior are derived and then tested on disaggregated automobile industry data the results largely support the model though they suggest a small role for production smoothing as well subsidiary evidence on the relative variance of demand and cost shocks suggests that demand shocks are indeed more important

moving to opportunity in boston early results of a randomized mobility experiment this paper examines the short run impacts of a change in residential neighborhood on the well being of low income families using evidence from a program in which eligibility for a housing voucher was determined by random lottery we examine the experiences of households at the boston site of moving to opportunity mto a demonstration program in five cities families in high poverty public housing projects applied to mto and were assigned by lottery to one of three groups experimental offered mobility counseling and a section 8 subsidy valid only in a census tract with a poverty rate of less than 10 percent section 8 comparison offered a geographically unrestricted section 8 subsidy or control offered no new assistance but continued to be eligible for public housing our quantitative analyses of program impacts uses data on 540 families from a baseline survey at program enrollment a follow up survey administered l to 3 5 years after random assignment and state administrative data on earnings and welfare receipt 48 percent of the experimental group and 62 percent of the section 8 comparison group moved through the mto program one to three years after program entry families in both treatment groups were more likely to be residing in neighborhoods with low poverty rates and high education levels than were families in the control group however while members of the experimental group were much more likely to be residing in suburban communities than were those in the section 8 group the lower program take up rate among the experimental group resulted in more families remaining in the most distressed communities households in both treatment groups experienced improvements in multiple measures of well being relative to the control group including increased safety improved health among household heads and fewer behavior problems among boys experimental group children were also less likely to be a victim of a personal crime to be injured or to experience an asthma attack there are no significant impacts of either mto treatment on the employment earnings or welfare receipt of household heads in the first three years after random assignment

long term neighborhood effects on low income families evidence from moving to opportunity abstract we examine long term neighborhood effects on low income families using data from the moving to opportunity mto randomized housing mobility experiment this experiment offered to some public housing families but not to others the chance to move to less disadvantaged neighborhoods we show that ten to 15 years after baseline mto i improves adult physical and mental health ii has no detectable effect on economic outcomes or youth schooling or physical health and iii has mixed results by gender on other youth outcomes with girls doing better on some measures and boys doing worse despite the somewhat mixed pattern of impacts on traditional behavioral outcomes mto moves substantially improve adult subjective well being

stochastic trends and economic fluctuations are business cycles mainly the result of permanent shocks to productivity this paper uses a long run restriction implied by a large class of real business cycle models identifying permanent productivity shocks as shocks to the common stochastic trend in output consumption and investment to provide new evidence on this question econometric tests indicate that this common stochastic trend cointegration implication is consistent with postwar u s data however in systems with nominal variables the estimates of this common stochastic trend indicate that permanent productivity shocks typically explain less than half of the business cycle variability in output consumption and investment copyright 1991 by american economic association

agricultural innovation and new ventures assessing the commercial potential innovation and new ventures have been part of the food production and distribution industry for decades if not centuries in recent times new ventures under the banner of valueadded agriculture have become the mantra for producers politicians and agri businesses that are searching for better margins and higher incomes than provided by traditional commodity production and distribution but the commercial potential of value added ventures and innovations is not obvious often is not realized and may be frequently overestimated in fact studies of new business start ups in agriculture and other sectors indicate that a high proportion of those businesses fail during the first twelve months of operation and many are not sustainable even after this most vulnerable start up period sba the objective of this paper is to provide a framework for assessing the commercial potential of innovation in agriculture we highlight the four critical components of market analysis essential to successful innovation and new ventures those are the assessment of customers competitors sustainable competitive advantage and internal capabilities we identify and describe where concepts of economics

investigation of production sales and inventory relationships using multicointegration and non symmetric error correction models the accumulated sum of a stationary series is called integrated if a linear combination of some of the integrated series is stationary it is said to be cointegrated this paper presents empirical results on inventories to consider the possibility of a deeper form of cointegration called multicointegration which is introduced in granger and lee 1989 a vector integrated series is multicointegrated if the accumulated sum of its stationary cointegrated linear combination is again cointegrated with itself inventory which is the accumulated sum of production minus sales is probably cointegrated with production and sales the empirical results generally support the presence of multicointegration of production and sales in many u s industries and industrial aggregates the results also favour the non symmetric error correction model providing evidence that the strength of attraction is different on both sides of the attractor a modified s s rule for inventory control is investigated in the context of a non symmetric error correction model and the results generally do not support the s s rule sufficient evidence is found to conclude that multicointegration is a useful concept in the area of inventory determination

firms governments and wto adjudication japan s selection of wto disputes what explains the selection of cases for wto adjudication this article explores the business conditions under which industries lobby their home government to use the wto adjudication process and the political factors that influence government decisions it explains the industry pattern of selection for international trade disputes as a function of the velocity of the business environment while wto adjudication is seen as costly and slow a positive ruling brings broad benefits in terms of deterrence against future discrimination firms in static industries will invest in wto dispute settlement to achieve these benefits but firms in industries shaped by dynamic competition have high opportunity costs that make them less willing to pursue adjudication this argument accounts for why there are fewer wto cases about electronics industry issues than there are likely incidences of protectionist measures since japan is a leading exporter and provides a government report with unique data on potential wto disputes it was chosen to test the argument in greater depth interviews with japanese business officials and statistical analysis of an original data set provide support for the argument the authors conclude that the passive attitude toward wto adjudication by japan s largest export industry electronics and the sensitivity of japan s diplomatic relations with china have constrained the cases that japan files these findings suggest that the effectiveness of the wto for dispute settlement is conditional upon the time horizon of the industry and the political relations among members

optimal timing of college subsidies enrollment graduation and the skill premium abstract the large increase in the skill premium has led many policy makers to propose increasing college subsidies as a strategy to increase college enrollment and reduce inequality existing analyses typically assume that there is no distinction between enrollment and graduation but in fact more than 50 of college enrollees do not graduate this highlights the need to explicitly model the decision to drop out in assessing the effect of subsidies i build a general equilibrium model of education choice that features an explicit dropout decision calibrate it to match key features of the us economy and use it to evaluate the impact of college subsidies on the supply of college educated labor i show that moving to a system in which subsidies are back loaded i e higher for juniors and seniors than for freshmen and sophomores will increase the supply of college educated labor even holding total subsides constant in fact this effect is larger than what would be accomplished by a uniform 50 increase in subsidies

inventories and the volatility of production a stylized fact associated with inventory behavior is that the variance of production exceeds the variance of sales this paper presents a model of production decisions with demand uncertainty that incorporates no nnegativity constraints on inventories even with no productivity shocks optimal behavior by the firm is consistent with this stylized fact either if demand exhibits positive serial correlation or if the firm can backlog excess demand the reason is that a demand shock affects both the actual inventory level given unchanged production and the desired level production must replenish the stock and adjust to the new desired level copyright 1987 by american economic association

the effects of exposure to better neighborhoods on children new evidence from the moving to opportunity experiment the moving to opportunity mto experiment offered randomly selected families housing vouchers to move from high poverty housing projects to lower poverty neighborhoods we analyze mto s impacts on children s long term outcomes using tax data we find that moving to a lower poverty neighborhood when young before age 13 increases college attendance and earnings and reduces single parenthood rates moving as an adolescent has slightly negative impacts perhaps because of disruption effects the decline in the gains from moving with the age when children move suggests that the duration of exposure to better environments during childhood is an important determinant of children s long term outcomes jel i31 i38 j13 r23 r38

cognition capabilities and incentives assessing firm response to the fiber optic revolution this study examines how ceo cognition organizational capabilities and organizational incentives interacted to shape firm strategy during the fiber optic revolution i tested for these factors as

how does your kindergarten classroom affect your earnings evidence from project star in project star 11 571 students in tennessee and their teachers were randomly assigned to classrooms within their schools from kindergarten to third grade this article evaluates the long term impacts of star by linking the experimental data to administrative records we first demonstrate that kindergarten test scores are highly correlated with outcomes such as earnings at age 27 college attendance home ownership and retirement savings we then document four sets of experimental impacts first students in small classes are significantly more likely to attend college and exhibit improvements on other outcomes class size does not have a significant effect on earnings at age 27 but this effect is imprecisely estimated second students who had a more experienced teacher in kindergarten have higher earnings third an analysis of variance reveals significant classroom effects on earnings students who were randomly assigned to higher quality classrooms in grades k 3 as measured by classmates end of class test scores have higher earnings college attendance rates and other outcomes finally the effects of class quality fade out on test scores in later grades but gains in noncognitive measures persist

the evolution of collective strategy frames in high and low velocity industries we argue that the collective assumptions of firms drive their actions and practices and create the conditions of industry velocity in our view cognitive construction by firms is the primary driver of industry velocity this is in contrast to the contingency views common in the literature which hold that industry velocity plays a role by constraining and shaping firm strategies specifically we suggest that firms develop unique assumptions social networks and feedback mechanisms that these mechanisms perpetuate patterns of changes in collective beliefs and aggregate actions and that these patterns in turn shape high and low velocity conditions we examine these assertions by tracing the collective beliefs of three aircraft low velocity and semiconductor high velocity firms over a 20 year period 1977 1997 our results suggest that the cognitive construction view of industry velocity is reasonable

making sense in hypercompetitive environments a cognitive explanation for the persistence of high velocity competition this paper explores the cognitive aspects underlying industries in hypercompetitive environments hypercompetition represents a state of competition with rapidly escalating levels of competition and reduced periods of competitive advantage for firms in hypercompetitive industries member firms act boldly and aggressively to create a state of competitive disequilibrium in this paper we explore the particular conditions that managers encounter in making sense of hypercompetitive industries and argue that the nature of these conditions is such that conventional sensemaking frameworks will not work we then describe the adaptive sensemaking practices established in the literature for dealing with temporary turbulence and suggest that in hypercompetition those processes continue indefinitely we argue that these processes can become institutionalized as standard operating procedures within firms and as shared recipes within industries which in turn perpetuates hyperturbulent conditions

the impact of housing assistance on child outcomes evidence from a randomized housing lottery one long standing motivation for low income housing programs is the possibility that housing affordability and housing conditions generate externalities including on children s behavior and long term life outcomes we take advantage of a randomized housing voucher lottery in chicago in 1997 to examine the longterm impact of housing assistance on a wide variety of child outcomes including schooling health and criminal involvement in contrast to most prior work focusing on families in public housing we focus on families living in unsubsidized private housing at baseline for whom voucher receipt generates large changes in both housing and nonhousing consumption we find that the receipt of housing assistance has little if any impact on neighborhood or school quality or on a wide

student loans do college students borrow too much or not enough total student loan debt rose to over 800 billion in june 2010 overtaking total credit card debt outstanding for the first time by the time this article sees print the continually updated student loan debt clock will show an accumulated total of roughly 1 trillion borrowing to finance educational expenditures has been increasing more than quadrupling in real dollars since the early 1990s the sheer magnitude of these figures has led to increased public commentary on the level of student borrowing the authors move the discussion of student loans away from anecdote by establishing a framework for considering the use of student loans in the optimal financing of collegiate investments from a financial perspective enrolling in college is equivalent to signing up for a lottery with large expected gains indeed the figures presented here suggest that college is on average a better investment today than it was a generation ago but it is also a lottery with significant probabilities of both larger positive and smaller or even negative returns the authors look to available albeit limited evidence to assess which types of students are likely to be borrowing too much or too little

behavioral economics and public policy a pragmatic perspective the debate about behavioral economics the incorporation of insights from psychology into economics is often framed as a question about the foundational assumptions of economic models this paper presents a more pragmatic perspective on behavioral economics that focuses on its value for improving empirical predictions and policy decisions i discuss three ways in which behavioral economics can contribute to public policy by oering new policy tools improving predictions about the eects

nonparametric bounds on treatment effects assume that each member of a population is characterized by values for the variables ya yb z x here x is a vector describing a person and z is a binary variable indicating which of two treatments this person receives the treatments are labelled a and b the variables ya and yb are scalar measures of the outcomes of the two treatments for example a cancer patient might be treated by a drug therapy or b surgery the relevant outcome y might be life span following treatment an unemployed worker might be given a vocational training or b job search assistance here the relevant outcome might be labor force status following treatment assume that a random sample is drawn and that one observes the realizations of z x and of the outcome under the treatment received thus ya is observed if treatment a is received but is a latent variable if treatment b is received similarly yb is either observed or latent suppose that one wants to learn the difference in expected outcome if all persons with attributes x were assigned to treatment a or b this treatment effect is

on money and motivation a quasi experimental analysis of financial incentives for college achievement abstract programs linking college aid to academic achievement could work either by lowering the cost of college or by inducing additional student effort i examine the promise program in west virginia which offers free tuition to students who maintain a minimum gpa and course load using administrative data i exploit discontinuities in the eligibility formula and the timing of implementation to estimate causal effects i find robust and significant impacts on key academic outcomes impacts are concentrated around the annual requirements for scholarship renewal suggesting that the program works via incentives for academic achievement not simply by relaxing financial constraints

neighborhood effects on crime for female and male youth evidence from a randomized housing voucher experiment the moving to opportunity mto demonstration assigned housing vouchers via random lottery to public housing residents in five cities we use the exogenous variation in residential locations generated by mto to estimate neighborhood effects on youth crime and delinquency the offer to relocate to lower poverty areas reduces arrests among female youth for violent and property crimes relative to a control group for males the offer to relocate reduces arrests for violent crime at least in the short run but increases problem behaviors and property crime arrests the gender difference in treatment effects seems to reflect differences in how male and female youths from disadvantaged backgrounds adapt and respond to similar new neighborhood environments

intra day and inter market volatility in foreign exchange rates four foreign exchange spot rate series recorded on an hourly basis for a six month period in 1986 are examined a seasonal garch model is developed to describe the time dependent volatility apparent in the percentage nominal return of each currency hourly patterns in volatility are found to be remarkably similar across currencies and appear to be related to the opening and closing of the worlds major markets robust lm tests designed to deal with the extreme leptokurtosis in the data fails to uncover any evidence of misspecification or the presence of volatility spillover effects between the currencies or across markets

financial literacy externalities this paper uses unique administrative data and a quasi field experiment of exogenous allocation to apartments in sweden to estimate medium and longer run effects on financial behavior from exposure to financially literate neighbors it contributes evidence of causal impact of financial literacy and points to a social multiplier of effective programs to enhance it exposure promotes saving in private retirement accounts and stockholding especially when neighbors have economics or business education but only for educated or male headed households findings point to relevant knowledge transfer through social interactions rather than to labor market or other channels linked to local economic conditions

achieving escape velocity neighborhood and school interventions to reduce persistent inequality abstract this paper reviews the evidence on the efficacy of neighborhood and school interventions in improving the long run outcomes of children growing up in poor families we focus on studies exploiting exogenous sources of variation in neighborhoods and schools and which examine at least medium term outcomes higher quality neighborhoods improve family safety adult subjective well being and health and girls mental health but they have no detectable impact on youth human capital labor market outcomes or risky behaviors in contrast higher quality schools can improve children s academic achievement and can have longer term positive impacts of increasing educational attainment and earnings and reducing incarceration and teen pregnancy

training wages and sample selection estimating sharp bounds on treatment effects this paper empirically assesses the wage effects of the job corps program one of the largest federally funded job training programs in the u s even with the aid of a randomized experiment the impact of a training program on wages is difficult to study because of sample selection a pervasive problem in applied microeconometric research wage rates are only observed for those who are employed and employment status itself may be affected by the training program this paper develops an intuitive trimming procedure for bounding average treatment effects in the presence of sample selection in contrast to existing methods the procedure requires neither exclusion restrictions nor a bounded support for the outcome of interest identification results estimators and their asymptotic distribution are presented the bounds suggest that the program raised wages consistent with the notion that the job corps raises earnings by increasing human capital rather than solely through encouraging work the estimator is generally applicable to typical treatment evaluation problems in which there is nonrandom sample selection attrition copyright wiley blackwell