some aspects of the taxation of capital gains abstract the analysis of the effects of capital gains taxation requires a careful modelling both of the details of the tax code and the imperfections in the capital market under the standard assumptions concerning perfect capital markets and under the standard idealizations of the tax code there are several strategies by which rational investors can avoid note only all taxes on their capital income but also all taxes on their wage income these strategies leave individuals consumption and bequests in each state of nature and at each date unchanged from what they would have been in the absence of taxes although certain detailed provisions of the tax code may limit the extent to which rational investors can avail themselves of these tax avoidance activities there are ways in a perfect capital market by which the effects of these restrictions can be ameliorated accordingly any analysis of the effects of capital taxation must focus on imperfect capital markets if individuals face limitations on the amounts which they can borrow and or if there are limitations on short sales then under some circumstances there is a locked in effect individuals do not sell securities which they would have sold in the absence of taxation but under other circumstances individuals are induced to sell securities that they otherwise would have held in order to take advantage of the asymmetric treatment of short term losses and long term gains a policy of realizing gains as soon as they become eligible for long term treatment dominates the policy of postponing the realization of capital gains provided the gains are not too large a simple general equilibrium model is constructed within which it is shown that the taxation of capital gains may increase the volatility of asset prices and lead individuals not to trade when they otherwise would while the analysis casts doubt on the significance of the welfare losses resulting from these exchange inefficiencies there are circumstances in which the tax leads to production inefficiencies e g terminating projects at other than the socially optimal date finally we argue that the focus of some recent policy debates on the short run revenue impact of a decrease in the tax rate on capital gains is misplaced even when the short run revenue impact is positive consumption may increase thus exacerbating inflationary pressures and private savings may decrease thus leading to a lower level of investment in the private sector moreover there is some presumption that the long run revenue impact is negative our analysis has some important implications for empirical research in particular it suggests that the impact of the tax is not adequately summarized by a single number such as the effective tax rate representing the average ratio of tax payments to capital gains moreover the impact of the tax cannot be assessed by looking only at reported capital gains and losses

from shadow to green linking environmental fiscal reforms and the informal economy in the past few decades many papers have analysed in some depth different environmental tax reforms and the double dividend hypothesis i e the possibility of improving not only the environment but also the economy through the reduction of distortions in the tax system recently more stress has been placed on testing empirically what effects a reduction in labour taxes may have on unemployment when accompanied by a carbon or other environmental tax however such studies have not modelled the effects of the presence of a shadow economy even though informal markets account for a significant and growing part of gdp in many developed economies this paper analyses this link using an applied general equilibrium model for the case of spain which has one of the highest unemployment rates in the world and one of the biggest informal economies of any wealthy country we conclude that our analysis strengthens the case for an environmental tax reform in spain if revenues from a co2 tax are recycled via a labour tax reduction

day of the week effects and asset returns the number of empirical studies using daily stock returns is rapidly increasing researchers generally assume that the distribution of stock returns is identical for all days of the week a convenient statistical assumption but not a necessary condition of market equilibrium nevertheless there are reasons to suspect that the distribution of returns may vary according to the day of the week the most obvious is the impact of weekends on monday s return since monday s return is calculated over three instead of one calender day the mean and variance may well be higher on monday compared with any other daily return perhaps three times as large previous research has examined the daily distribution of stock returns for a monday effect while fama 1965 does not compare daily mean returns he does report that monday s variance is about 20o greater than other daily returns with a traditional distributional assumption regarding the returns on a financial asset specifies that the expected returns are identical for all days of the week contrary to this plausible assumption this paper discovers that the expected returns on common stocks and treasury bills are not constant across days of the week the most notable evidence is for monday s returns where the mean is unusually low or even negative several explanations of the results are investigated but none proves satisfactory aside from documenting significant day of the week effects the implications of the results for tests of market efficiency are examined while market adjusted returns continue to exhibit day of the week effects these effects are no longer concentrated on monday during the last year we have had many conversations with our colleagues throughout the professions we are particularly thankful to the participants at sessions of the western and american finance associations where preliminary versions of this paper were presented special thanks are due to gene fama gailen hite jon ingersoll robert jarrow merton miller clifford smith and rex thompson the expert research assistance of frank rabinovitch and youngsup yun is gratefully acknowledged 1 the list of papers using daily stock returns is too long to name recent examples include charest 1978 dodd 1980 banz 1981 and reinganum 1981

ex day behavior with dividend preference and limitations to short term arbitrage the case of swedish lottery bonds abstract swedish lottery bonds offer a unique opportunity to study ex day effects in an environment where cash distributions are tax advantaged relative to capital gains thus in the lottery bond market we observe a reversal of the preference for capital gains that researchers have cited as an explanation for the ex day behavior of u s equities further in this market there are barriers to short term arbitrage when prices do reflect the tax preferences of individual investors we find the bonds are priced around the ex day to reflect differential tax rates on income and capital gains consistent with the prevailing tax regimes the bonds consistently experience negative returns over the coupon payment period and in fact often sell at negative yields prior to the cash distribution as one would expect given tax motivated trading between high tax investors who buy prior to the distribution and low tax investors who buy after the distribution

the ex dividend day behavior of canadian stock prices tax changes and clientele effects with some simple assumptions the ex dividend day price drop and the associated dividend can be used to measure the market s marginal tax rate previous research has estimated the implied tax rate for the u s this paper extends the analysis to canada where the tax treatment of dividends and capital gains is completely different from that in the u s the paper also presents estimates from 1970 80 to include four distinct periods when the tax treatment was different hence we include an implied test of market efficiency as well as those for the relevance of taxes and the existence of tax based dividend clienteles

minimum price variations discrete bid ask spreads and quotation sizes exchange minimum price variation regulations create discrete bid ask spreads if the minimum quotable spread exceeds the spread that otherwise would be quoted spreads will be wide and the number of shares offered at the bid and ask may be large a cross sectional discrete spread model is estimated by using intraday stock quotation spread frequencies the results are used to project 1 16 spread usage frequencies given a 1 16 tick projected changes in quotation sizes and in trade volumes are obtained from regression models for stocks priced under 10 the models predict spreads would decrease 38 percent quotation sizes would decrease 16 percent and daily volume would increase 34 percent article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

agricultural productivity and structural transformation evidence from brazil we study the eects of the adoption of new agricultural technologies on structural transfor mation to guide empirical work we present a simple model where the eect of agricultural productivity on industrial development depends on the factor bias of technical change we test the predictions of the model by studying the introduction of genetically engineered soybean seeds in brazil which had heterogeneous eects on agricultural productivity across areas with dierent soil and weather characteristics we nd that technical change in soy production was strongly labor saving and lead to industrial growth as predicted by the model

tax induced trading the effect of the 1986 tax reform act on stock market activity the end of favorable tax treatment for long term capital gains caused investors to reassess traditional tax induced trading strategies this study compares trading behavior in december 1986 and january 1987 with previous years our results indicate that these tax code changes had a powerful effect on trading behavior relative trading volume was considerably higher in december 1986 for long term winners but not significantly lower for long term losers results also indicate altered trading patterns based on shortterm gains in december 1986 and for long term winners in january 1987 the most sweeping revision of the united states tax code in many years became law in september 1986 one key aspect of that law was the elimination of the favorable tax treatment of long term capital gains under prior law capital gains on assets held at least six months were generally1 taxed at only forty percent of the rate applied to ordinary income under the new tax law assets sold after december 31 1986 are to be taxed with a few exceptions 2 at the same rate at which ordinary income is taxed this change represented the largest capital gains tax rate increase in at least half a century the purpose of this study is to assess the short run investor reaction to this change in the tax treatment of capital gains the nearly four month lag between the passage of the legislation and the effective date of the tax rate change gave investors ample opportunity to assess the law s consequences for their portfolios and adjust their behavior accordingly since investors are seeking to maximize the risk adjusted after tax return on their portfolio this record increase in capital gains tax rates is likely to induce significant changes in investment strategy the extreme sensitivity of capital gains realizations to the capital gains tax rate by holders of common stock has been frequently demonstrated a permanent or long term and recurring investor response is evidenced by the findings of

estimating the size of the shadow economy in spain a structural model with latent variables there has recently been a revival of international interest in measuring the size of the shadow economy the current study adopts an approach to the spanish case that is based on the theory of unobservable variables this methodology involves the estimation of structural models mimic which analyses a set of causes of the shadow economy while simultaneously taking into account its influence upon a series of indicators the proposed model permits the determination of a relative evolution over time of the size of the shadow economy which requires the calibration of the model with an exogenous estimation in order to obtain real values the exogenous estimation employed is that obtained by a monetary method based on a money demand function the results show a considerable shadow economy measuring between 8 and 18 8 of gdp in the period 1976 2002 and demonstrate that the shadow economy is significantly influenced by the tax burden the degree of regulation and unit labour costs a positive correlation is

dividend effects in israel a puzzle abstract we examine whether stock returns on ex dividend days in the tel aviv stock exchange tase reflect the differential taxation of dividends and capital gains tase data offer significant advantages over data used by prior studied less frictional trading and identifiable tax rates we find that stock prices on the tase on ex dividend days exhibit significant abnormal returns surprisingly we find no evidence of short term trading around ex dividend days to exploit these profit opportunities

the ex dividend behavior of nonconvertible preferred stock returns and trading volume on average nonconvertible preferred stocks have significantly positive abnormal returns and trading volume on the ex day for the less liquid stocks however the abnormal returns are significantly positive and abnormal trading volume is insignificantly different from zero this evidence suggests that long term individual investors set the ex day prices of less liquid stocks for the more liquid stocks the ex day abnormal returns are closer to zero and there is significantly positive abnormal trading volume on the ex day and the day before the ex day these results suggest that short term investors set the ex day prices of more liquid stocks through dividend capture strategies despite this evidence some inconsistent empirical findings make the overall evidence on dividend capture somewhat mixed

the effects of taxation on the selling of corporate stock and the realization of capital gains this study provides the first econometric analysis of the effect of taxation on the realization of capital gains the analysis thus extends and complements the earlier study by feldstein and yitzhaki 1978 of the effect of taxation on the selling of corporate stock the present analysis using a large new body of data obtained from individual tax returns supports the earlier finding that corporate stock sales are quite sensitive to tax rates and then shows that the effect on the realization of capital gains is even stronger

stock splits and stock dividends why who and when this study investigates empirically why firms split their stock or distribute stock dividends and why the market reacts favorably to these distributions the findings suggest that stock splits are mainly aimed at restoring stock prices to a normal range some support can also be found for the oft mentioned signalling motive of stock splits stock dividends are altogether different from stock splits and they appear to be a decreasing phenomenon the clue to stock dividend distributions may lie in their perceived substitution for relatively low cash dividends neither stock splits nor stock dividends are recent phenomena the latter dates back to the elizabethan age among the first to declare such dividends was the east india company which while enjoying great prosperity declared in 1682 a stock dividend of one hundred percent during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries stock dividends were quite frequently distributed by british companies in the united states an early and frequently discussed stock dividend distribution was that of the new york central railroad just prior to its union with the hudson river railroad in 1869 surprisingly stock dividends were quite popular in the u s despite their being subject to federal income tax thus for example during the seven years prior to 1922 the year in which the supreme court exempted the recipients of stock dividends from taxes the ratio of stock dividends to all dividend distributions was 14 5 percent this ratio increased to a staggering forty seven percent during the seven years succeeding the supreme court decision during 1936 to 1937 some american companies distributed stock dividends to avoid the undistributed profit tax

ex dividend day stock price behavior the case of the 1986 tax reform act this paper analyzes the behavior of stock prices around ex dividend days after the implementation of the 1986 tax reform act that dramatically reduced the difference between the tax treatment of realized long term capital gains and dividend income in 1987 and completely eliminated the differential in 1988 we show that this tax change had no effect on the ex dividend stock price behavior which is consistent with the hypothesis that long term individual investors have no significant effect on ex day stock prices during this time period the results indicate that the activity of short term traders and corporate traders dominates the price determination on the ex day

creating low skilled jobs by subsidizing market contracted household work the paper analyses the determinants of household work contracted in the german shadow economy the german socio economic household panel which enumerates casual domestic employment is used to estimate the demand for such household work the regressors include regional wage rates household income and several control variables for household composition it is found that the demand for household work in the shadow economy is very income elastic this suggests that targeted wage subsidies linked to household work agencies would be very effective in raising the legal demand for domestic help a wage subsidy of 50 of wage costs could thus establish up to 500 000 new jobs for previously unemployed or non working low skilled workers the net fiscal costs of such a scheme are about 6 200 euro per full time job in addition society benefits from more law enforcement and from a raised female labour supply especially by highly qualified mothers

shadow economy and unemployment rate in u s a is there a structural relationship an empirical analysis this article aims to estimate the size of the us shadow economy se using a structural equation approach and to evaluate if a structural relationship exists between the se and the unemployment rate ur in the united states the size of the se is estimated to be decreasing over the last two decades we corroborate the existence of a structural relationship between the se and the ur by using a simple theoretical model furthermore we extend the okun s law to estimate the structural relationship between growth rate of official gdp se and ur our results indicate a significant positive relationship between the se and the ur

prospect theory and the disposition effect this paper shows that prospect theory is unlikely to explain the disposition effect prospect theory predicts that the propensity to sell a stock declines as its price moves away from the purchase price in either direction trading data on the other hand show that the propensity to sell jumps at zero return but it is approximately constant over a wide range of losses and increasing or constant over a wide range of gains further the pattern of realized returns does not seem to stem from optimal after tax portfolio rebalancing a belief in mean reverting returns or investors acting on target prices

top executive rewards and firm performance a comparison of japan and the united states this paper studies top executive turnover and compensation and their relation to firm performance in the largest japanese and u s companies japanese executive turnover and compensation are related to earnings stock returns and to a lesser extent sales performance measures the fortunes of japanese top executives therefore are positively correlated with stock performance and current cash flows or with factors contributing to such performance the relations for the japanese executives are generally economically and statistically similar to those for their u s counterparts there is some evidence however that the fortunes of japanese executives are more sensitive to low income but less sensitive to stock returns than those of u s executives

the behavior of stock prices around institutional trades all trades executed by 37 large investment management firms from july 1986 to december 1988 are used to study the price impact and execution cost of the entire sequence package of trades that we interpret as an order we find that market impact and trading cost are related to firm capitalization relative package size and most importantly to the identity of the management firm behind the trade money managers with high demands for immediacy tend to be associated with larger market impact financial economists have long studied the equity trading process and its impact on stock prices much prior empirical research isolates individual trades and analyzes the behavior of the stock price around each trade see for example kraus and stoll 1972a holthausen leftwich and mayers 1987 1990 keim and madhavan 1991 petersen and umlauf 1991 hausman lo and mackinlay 1992 and chan and lakonishok 1993 evaluating the behavior of stock prices around trades provides a means of discriminating among various hypotheses as to the elasticity of the demand for stocks yields an estimate of the cost of executing trades and a measure of the liquidity of a market and permits tests of different models of the determination of quotes and transaction prices for many institutional investors however even a moderately sized position in a stock may represent a large fraction of the stock s trading volume accordingly an investment manager s order is often broken up into several trades it is often misleading therefore to consider an individual trade as the basic unit of analysis in the study of trading activity and its effects on prices this paper uses the record of trades executed by 37 large investment manage

the underground economy in spain an alternative to unemployment this paper analyses the factors which determine whether an individual works in the formal sector in the informal sector or remains unemployed in the spanish labour market we highlight the implications of high unemployment on an individual s decision to work in the underground economy we postulate that an individual decides or is chosen whether to work in the formal sector or not in a first stage and if not in a second stage decides whether to work in the underground sector or to remain unemployed we estimate a bivariate probit model which controls for selectivity bias in the second stage the result indicates on the one hand that heads of household who benefit more from social security provisions obtained in formal sector jobs are more likely to work in such sector than others besides demand restrictions seem to operate as well individuals with higher education have easier access to the formal sector on the other hand among those who do not work in the formal sector the probability of wor

the ex dividend day behavior of stock prices the case of japan we provide a comprehensive empirical analysis of stock price behavior around the ex dividend day in japan we find that prices rise on the ex day and that dividend related tax effects appear to be secondary returns around ex dividend days are dominated by the proximity of many ex days to the fiscal year end excess returns of 1 percent which are independent of any dividend related considerations are higher than round trip transaction costs on medium sized transactions prices seem to imply selling pressure before and buying pressure at the start of the new fiscal year these trading patterns appear to be motivated by intercorporate manipulative trading around the end of the firms fiscal year which are unrelated to dividends article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

reduction of constraints on arbitrage trading and market efficiency an examination of ex day returns in hong kong after introduction of electronic settlement previous research documents positive ex dividend day returns in excess of one percent in the unique institutional setting of hong kong where neither dividends nor capital gains are taxed short term arbitrage trades around the ex day were hampered by physical settlement procedures after the recent switch to an electronic settlement system which enables such trades ex day abnormal returns have declined to an insignificant 0 17 percent this drop is more pronounced for high yield stocks which are more likely to attract dividend capture trading the evidence points to the crucial role of short term traders in ensuring the pricing efficiency of financial markets the role of short term traders in financial markets is a matter of considerable controversy the debate on this issue has heightened in the wake of the recent asian currency crisis which some governments blamed on the activities of short term traders critics contend that short term traders engage in speculation leading to excessive and debilitating volatility in market prices others argue that short term traders perform a useful role by increasing valuable liquidity berkman and eleswarapu 1998 report that regulatory changes on the bombay stock exchange curbing short term trading had a measurably adverse impact on asset values supporters of short term traders also argue that these traders make a key contribution to the efficiency of financial markets by constantly scouring the markets for arbitrage opportunities this study examines the impact of the

the courage of misguided convictions the field of modern financial economics assumes that people behave with extreme rationality but they do not furthermore people s deviations from rationality are often systematic behavioral finance relaxes the traditional assumptions of financial economics by incorporating these observable systematic and very human departures from rationality into standard models of financial markets we highlight two common mistakes investors make excessive trading and the tendency to disproportionately hold on to losing investments while selling winners we argue that these systematic biases have their origins in human psychology the tendency for human beings to be overconfident causes the first bias in investors and the human desire to avoid regret prompts the second

foreign and domestic investors and tax induced ex dividend day trading abstract this paper reports evidence on the consequences of differential tax treatment for domestic and foreign owners in a market with a high degree of foreign ownership for certain stocks the helsinki stock exchange hse we find that ex dividend day ratios vary with the degree of foreign ownership and detect significantly abnormal ex dividend day trading volumes the average ex dividend price drops for high yield high foreign ownership stocks are likely to lie outside no arbitrage boundaries for domestic taxable investors an investigation of short selling through a derivatives instrument also reveals significant excess trading volumes in ex dividend months the tax heterogeneity of the company s ownership structure seems to play a role in explaining deviations from dividend neutrality more deviations are observed for companies with a more homogeneous ownership structure in terms of taxation

labor market institutions taxation and the underground economy abstract the paper aims at qualifying the links between labor market institutions taxation tax monitoring and underground economic activity the proposed model is a continuous time matching model with one commodity roduced either overground or underground underground economic activity arises because of partial compliance with regulations and tax contributions imposed by the government vacancies and workers search are directed at a specific labor market workers are heterogenous in the subjective cost they face when operating in the irregular sector analytical and numerical investigations suggest that interactions between regular and irregular activities can affect standard results of policy interventions in that respect the paper supports the view that policies aiming at increasing individuals benefits of participating in the regular sector are more desirable than a deterrence policy

seasonality in canadian stock prices a test of the tax loss selling hypothesis a popular hypothesis to explain the anomalous january returns of common stocks is based on the argument that there is considerable tax loss selling by investors toward the end of the year the purpose of this study is to test the tax loss selling hypothesis with data on canadian stocks although the introduction of capital gains tax in canada seems to have affected the behavior of stock returns the findings do not support the proposition that taxinduced trading is the sole cause ofthe seasonality in stock returns in canada i introduction over the past several years a number of studies have shown that the returns on common stocks in general and the stocks of small companies in particular tend to be abnormally high during the month of january keim 10 demonstrated quite clearly that a very high percentage of the abnormal positive returns gener ated on stocks with low market capitalizations occurs during january with the returns during the first five trading days of the year accounting for most of the anomalous behavior his results were recently confirmed by roll 14 who re ported that around 37 percent of the annual differences in the returns on the equally weighted and value weighted indices of nyse and amex stocks is ac counted for by what happens in the five trading days from the last trading day in december through the fourth trading day in january a popular hypothesis to explain the so called january effect in stock re turns is based on the argument that there is considerable end of the year tax lossselling by investors originally proposed by wachtel 19 it asserts that inves tors try to realize losses towards the end of the year to reduce their taxes thereby putting downward pressure on stock prices according to the hypothesis once

why do stock prices drop by less than the value of the dividend evidence from a country without taxes abstract it is well documented that stock prices on ex dividend days drop by less than the value of the dividend on average this has commonly been attributed to the effect of tax clienteles we examine data from the hong kong stock market where neither dividends nor capital gains are taxed as in the u s the average stock price drop is less than the value of the dividend specifically the average dividend for the period 1980 1993 is hk 0 12 and the average price drop is hk 0 06 we are able to account for this both theoretically and empirically through market microstructure arguments

ex dividend stock price behavior and arbitrage opportunities this paper investigates the relation between ex dividend stock price behavior and arbitrage oppor tunities in a continuous trading frictionless economy the authors demonstrate that it is possible for the ex dividend stock price drop to differ from the dividend and still short term traders cannot gene rate arbitrage profits the argument is independent of transactions c osts the relevance of this insight to estimating the marginal tax br acket based on ex dividend stock price drops is explored furthermore this insight is also applied to the area of option pricing in which the special class of escrowed dividend stock price processes is stud ied the authors show that most elements from this class of stock pri ce processes generate invalid option pricing formulas copyright 1988 by the university of chicago

tax induced trading of equity securities evidence from the adr market we examine ex dividend date trading of american depositary receipts adrs using a sample of 1 043 dividends over the period 1988 to 1995 adr dividends are often subject to foreign withholding taxes creating incentives for certain investors to avoid the distribution adrs exhibit negative abnormal ex dividend day returns and their prices behave consistently with their related withholding taxes abnormal trading volume for taxable issues exceeds 130 percent and 300 percent of normal volume on the cum and ex dates respectively abnormal volume is an increasing function of foreign withholding tax rates and decreasing function of transactions costs this abnormal exdate trading activity is consistent with tax motivated trading this paper provides empirical evidence from a sample of american depositary receipts adrs that foreign taxes on dividend income are positively associated with abnormal ex dividend day trading activity researchers have long been interested in the question of whether taxes affect investor behavior around ex dividend days such work has implications for corporate financial and distribution policies and for government tax policies adrs provide a unique setting in which to examine the effects of taxes on investor trading behavior because of the unique features of the foreign withholding taxes that apply to them a number of studies have attempted to isolate the determinants of ex dividend day pricing and trading activity of u s equities and there is considerable evidence of tax induced investor behavior around the ex dividend day for common

optimal stock trading with personal taxes implications for prices and the abnormal january returns abstract the tax law confers upon the investor a timing option to realize capital losses and defer capital gains with the tax rate on long term gains and losses being about half the short term rate the law provides a second timing option to realize losses short term and gains long term if at all our theory and simulation over the 1962 1977 period establish that taxable investors should realize long term gains in high variance stocks and repurchase stock in order to realize potential future losses short term tax trading does not explain the small firm anomaly but predicts a seasonal pattern in trading volume which maps into a seasonal pattern in stock prices the january anomaly only if investors are irrational or ignorant of the price seasonality

labour supply incentives and the taxation of family income taxing family income richard blundell and ian walker will lower marginal rates of income tax increase incentives to work the traditional theoretical argument ignores the fact that many individuals are members of households with more than one potential participant in paid employment the theory of optimal income tax is utilized to argue that the tax system should discriminate between individuals in the same household if their labour supply responses are different empirically the response of labour supply to changes in after tax wages is largest for secondary workers particularly married women hence the largest beneficial incentive effect is obtained if such individuals face lower tax rates since these individuals typically have below average pre tax earnings this suggests a simple way to implement our proposal establish a progressive income tax with individual earnings as the basis of assessment this might have additional advantages of fairness but its primary purpose would be to ensure that low earning but highly responsive individuals face low marginal tax rates while high earning but relatively unresponsive individuals face higher marginal tax rates contrary to popular wisdom a flat rate tax system would be less favourable for work incentives we illustrate this theoretical argument using an empirical model of labour supply embedded in a micro computer programme capable of simulating alternative tax systems

were japanese stock prices too high abstract this paper asks whether market fundamentals can explain the recent run up and decline of japanese equity values and price earnings ratios accounting differences explain about half of the long run disparity between u s and japanese p e s for example if japanese firms used u s accounting rules the japanese p e ratio would have been 32 6 not 53 7 in 1989 accounting differences cannot however explain the doubling of this ratio in 1986 nor its decline in 1990 similarly we are unable to isolate changes in required stock returns or growth expectations that are large enough to explain recent japanese stock price movements

dividends taxes and common stock prices the ex dividend day behavior of common stock prices before the income tax this study examines the ex dividend day behavior of common stock prices before the enactment of the federal income tax on ex dividend days during the pre tax period stock prices fell on average by the full amount of the dividend the data are consistent with the hypothesis that i investors in the pre tax period value dividends and capital gains as perfect substitutes and ii the differential taxation of dividends and capital gains has since caused investors to discount the value of taxable cash dividends in relation to capital gains

tax induced trading around ex dividend days abstract this paper investigates trading volume around ex dividend days for taxable distributions cash dividends it is found that trading volume increases significantly around the ex dividend day this increase is more pronounced for high yield actively traded stocks and after brokerage commissions became negotiable the results are consistent with the hypothesis that short term traders have an impact on ex day price behavior at least for taxable distributions for non taxable distributions stock splits and stock dividends we find negative abnormal volume around ex day

willingness to move for work and unemployment duration in spain this paper examines unemployed workers willingness to move for work and its relationship to their unemployment duration in spain we use a hypothetical question in the spanish labour force survey would you accept a job offer which implied a change of residence the main finding is that while family responsibility age and education are important in determining individuals migration willingness the duration of unemployment does not show any significant effect even after controlling for unobserved fixed individual heterogeneity however the significant improvement in migration willingness after the exhaustion of unemployment benefits or when other household members become unemployed suggests that economic incentives could play an important role in increasing worker mobility we also find that job finding probability is significantly higher among those with positive migration attitudes than among others universidad del pais vasco

comment on the effect of migration policy on growth structural change and regional inequality in china by hao sun tombe and zhu abstract this new paper by hao sun tombe and zhu provides valuable new evidence around the role of reduced migration costs in structural transformation in china the paper documents the important role of migration in both growth and structural transformation over the last twenty years

tax reform and ex dividend day behavior this paper investigates the effect of a major canadian tax reform on the ex dividend day behavior of companies on the toronto stock exchange the results are inconsistent with the hypothesis that price changes on ex dividend days reflect the relative taxation of dividends and capital gains for the representative investor but are consistent with the hypothesis that ex dividend day price behavior reflects short term trading activities

a heterogeneous model of disposition effect a portfolio choice model is provided to illustrate the disposition effect under irrational belief in mean reversion assumption higher cognitive reference stronger irrational belief in mean reversion magnitude and less risk aversion all strengthen the disposition effect in the model the equilibrium market interest rate is priced after the market clearing condition is employed the grater disposition effect reduces the capital mobility from the stock market to the bond market and thus mitigates the dropping of the market interest rate

the effect of tax heterogeneity on prices and volume around the ex dividend day evidence from the milan stock exchange to investigate the effect of taxation on stock price and trading volume around the ex dividend day we use the italian stock market where dividends on two classes of stock are taxed differently we find that the weighted average of investors tax rates is reflected in the ex day prices and the variance of the relative tax rate across investors is reflected in the volume of trades we also show that higher transaction costs result in higher ex dividend day excess returns and lower abnormal volume this finding is consistent with profit elimination activity by institutions and corporations article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

volume for winners and losers taxation and other motives for stock trading capital gains taxes create incentives to trade our major finding is that turnover is higher for winners stocks the prices of which have increased than for losers which is not consistent with the tax prediction however the turnover in december and january is evidence of tax motivated trading there is a relatively high turnover for losers in december and for winners in january we conclude that taxes influence turnover but other motives for trading are more important we were unable to find evidence that changing the length of the holding period required to qualify for long term capital gains treatment affected turnover investors responding to the tax incentives in the capital gains laws should produce predictable patterns in the volume of trading in a stock but not necessarily in its price this study uses past price patterns as a proxy to measure the incentives to sell or avoid selling a stock and observes trading volumes to estimate the extent to which investors respond to these incentives past price patterns may influence trading volumes for other non tax related reasons as well these are also considered we find that past prices influence current incentives to trade through both tax and non tax motives winners tend to have higher abnormal volumes than losers this would be expected if non tax related motives were predominant however the influence of tax related motives on trading volume is shown by seasonal variations in the relationship between past price changes and turnover as predicted by tax induced trading theories the volume of losers is higher than normal in december and the volume of winners is higher than normal in january we found no evidence that trading volume was affected by changes in the length of the holding period required to qualify for long term capital gains investors reactions to capital gains taxes are important for several reasons first a comprehensive understanding of investor behavior would include both price and volume understanding the relationship between taxes and volume is a fruitful and convenient method of contributing to this subject the resource allocation consequences of capital gains taxes are controversial in part because

agricultural productivity growth rural economic diversity and economic reforms india 1970 2000 a salient theme in d gale johnson s work is the importance of agricultural development for general prosperity and for economic diversification e g johnson 2000 johnson has also noted that most of the world s poor are engaged in farming so that a key focus of development policy is to raise the incomes of farmers from a global perspective increasing the productivity of agriculture given the fixity of land is necessary for both poverty reduction and the development of the nonagricultural sector at the level of the world agricultural productivity gains poverty reduction and the growth of the nonfarm sector are complements however the question remains whether these observations imply that every poor country should focus its public resources on agricultural development in order to raise the incomes of people now engaged in farming and whether such a policy is necessary for obtaining economic diversity in this article we use the experience of india over the past 30 years to address the issue of whether agricultural technical change actually leads to economic diversification and income growth within the rural sector in the context of an open economy country in which there are cross area trade and capital flows we focus in particular on the rural sector because this is the sector in which linkages between agricultural and nonagricultural sectors are thought to be the strongest we exploit the fact that india has maintained a policy of openness with respect to agricultural technology over this period permitting and actively supporting agricultural development and has moved to a reformed regime in which goods are traded and capital is more mobile in the 1990s evidence on the relationship between agricultural growth and nonfarm

event study methodologies and the size effect abstract this study of 862 press recommendations demonstrates that the size effect can distort longer term performance measures and hence event studies relative to similar sized companies post publication performance is neutral however market adjustments the capm and market model with equally or capitalization weighted indexes all produce biased results event studies are most exposed to such bias when the measurement interval is long event securities differ systematically in size or weighting from the index constituents the size effect is large and or volatile and when capm type methodologies are used these distortions are avoided by explicitly controlling for size

dividend capture in nasdaq stocks abstract we examine the importance of dividend capture trading in nasdaq stocks by testing for cross sectional relations between ex day abnormal returns and bid ask spreads throughout we find that ex day returns and spreads are positively related the relation increases across dividend yield quintiles and is strongest in high yield stocks the relation does not appear in a sample of non ex dividend days these findings indicate that dividend capture trading affects the ex day returns of at least some particularly high yield nasdaq stocks and that dividend capture trading is important for understanding ex dividend day returns

are seasonal anomalies real a ninety year perspective in recent years there has been a proliferation of empirical studies documenting unexpected or anomalous regularities in security rates of return in addition to the widely studied relation between firm size and rate of return 1 these include seasonal regularities related to the time of the day harris 1986 the day of the week see ball and bowers 1986 cross 1973 french 1980 gibbons and hess 1981 jaffe and westerfield 1985 keim and stambaugh 1984 and lakonishok and levi 1982 the time of the month ariel 1987 and the turn of the year see haugen and lakonishok 1988 jones pearce and wilson 1987 lakonishok

trading volume for winners and losers on the tokyo stock exchange this paper examines trading volume on the tokyo stock exchange traditional theory suggests that taxes create strong incentives to delay realization of capital gains and accelerate realization of losses contrary to the theory we find strong evidence that turnover is higher for stocks with gains winners than for stocks with losses losers in particular the winner stocks of keiretsu firms tend to have high end of fiscal year turnover this is true even when realizing gains could result in higher tax liabilities we conclude that capital gains taxes have only a small impact on turnover in japan other non tax related motives especially window dressing appear to dominate investor behavior we find strong evidence that this window dressing is concentrated in the stock of keiretsu firms

are professional traders too slow to realize their losses data on a u s proprietary stock trading team provide evidence of the tendency of traders to hold on to their losers too long and sell their winners too soon that is the disposition effect the group of traders studied earned more than 1 4 million in intraday trading profits but they realized their winning trades at a much faster rate than their losing trades this tendency lowered their profitability when the traders limited their risk exposure by trading in small share sizes in low priced stocks or during periods of low volatility the discrepancy between losing and winning holding times rose an analysis of intraday prices suggests that traders could increase trading profits by holding winners longer and selling losers sooner

volume and turn of the year behavior abstract this paper studies the trading characteristics of listed companies by size and year end behavior there were no transactions on nearly 25 of the days for the smallest decile even at the turn of year which is an active trading period for small companies as a result of low levels of trading and the regulations governing exchange specialists transaction prices and quotations of small listed companies may require several days to fully reflect equilibrium price changes the data confirm the existence of a year end seasonal pattern in rates of return for small companies and suggest that there may be a seasonal pattern for large companies as well

do investors integrate losses and segregate gains mental accounting and investor trading decisions i test whether investors trading decisions are influenced by their preferences for framing gains and losses i find that investors are more likely to bundle sales of losers than sales of winners on the same day consistent with the hedonic editing hypothesis thaler 1985 that individuals prefer integrating losses and segregating gains in addition the extent to which mixed sales of winners and losers are consistent with the hedonic editing hypothesis is greater than what would be expected under random sales of stocks these results suggest that mental accounting is likely to play a significant role in investors trading decisions

ex dividend day trading who how and why evidence from the finnish market abstract this study examines the ex dividend day trading behavior of all investors in the finnish stock market consistent with dynamic dividend clientele theories investors with a preference for dividend income buy shares cum dividend and sell ex dividend the reverse is true for investors with the opposite preference investors also engage in overnight arbitrage earning on average a 2 overnight return on their invested capital trades at the investor level reveal that idiosyncratic risk is an important determinant in the choice of stock for short term ex day trading furthermore transaction costs and dividend yield jointly determine whether the volume of short term trading activity is nonzero