prenatal care demand and birthweight production of black mothers infant mortality in the united states has declined by one half in the past 20 years for both blacks and whites though the black infant mortality rate has steadily remained twice the white rate helen wallace 1994 the incidence of low birthweight unfortunately has remained almost unchanged over the same time period again with the black rate being twice the white rate wallace 1994 these two trends taken together suggest that the reduced mortality rate is due entirely to medical advances which allow more small weak and sick newborns to survive this paper investigates the health of newborns using the approach of mark rosenzweig and paul schultz 1982 1983 see also eugene lewit 1983 their work is extended by incorporating the number of visits and a visitsxdelay interaction term into prenatal care demand the goal is to obtain consistent estimates of the impact of prenatal care on infant birthweight these estimates can then be used to design interventions aimed at reducing the incidence of low birthweight

booms busts and babies health we study the relationship between the unemployment rate at the time of a baby s conception and parental characteristics parental behaviors and babies health babies conceived in times of high unemployment have a reduced incidence of low and very low birth weight fewer congenital malformations and lower post neonatal mortality these health improvements are attributable both to selection changes in the type of mothers that conceive during recessions and to improvements in health behavior during recessions black mothers tend to be higher socio economic status as measured by education and marital status in times of high unemployment whereas white mothers are less educated

plausibility of signals by a heterogeneous committee krishna and morgan propose amendments to two of gilligan and krehbiel s theoretical studies of legislative signaling the new results for homogeneous committees do not significantly change the empirical expectations ofprior works but the results for heterogeneous committees contradict earlier claims this note gives primary attention to heterogeneous committees and compares and contrasts the new and old equilibria and their empirical implications the notion of signaling is somewhat nebulous in all such games but seems distinctly less plausible in the key krishna morgan proposition than in previous legislative signaling games furthermore the empirical literature on choice of rules specifically the finding of a positive relationship between committee heterogeneity and restrictive rules is inconsistent with the krishna morgan analysis but consistent with gilligan krehbiel analyses even though the former is informationally efficient and the latter are not

evolution of the infant health production function michael grossman s seminal publication on the demand for health and health production grossman 1972 has spawned a substantial body of research focusing on the production of infant health this article provides a systematic review of the published literature to date on infant health production and how it has evolved over the past 3 4 decades as data have become more available computing has improved and econometric methods have become more sophisticated while empirical research in most fields has expanded in corresponding ways the infant health production research has become an important part of the broader and inherently multidisciplinary literature on intergenerational health the strongest and most robust findings are that policies matter for infant health particularly those affecting access to health care and that prenatal smoking and other chemical exposures substantially compromise infant health promising directions for future research include elucidating relevant pathways reconciling the largely inconsistent estimated effects of nutrition and education and exploring the roles of preconceptional and lifetime health care paternal factors social support housing complementarity and substitutability of inputs factors that modify effects of inputs and evolving medical technologies

why interest rates react to money announcements an explanation from the foreign exchange market abstract when the fed announces a money supply greater than had been expected interest rates rise why one explanation is that the market raises its estimate of the future rates of money growth and inflation and bids up nominal interest rates we offer contrary evidence on such days the dollar appreciates not depreciates an alternative explanation is that the market perceives the change in the money stock as a transitory fluctuation that the fed will reverse in the future the anticipated future tightening raises today s real interest rate causes a capital inflow and appreciates the dollar the result in fact observed

credence goods markets with conscientious and selfish experts i study credence goods markets when there are both selfish and conscientious experts the selfish expert is a profit maximizer the conscientious expert wants to maximize profit and repair the consumer s problem there are two classes of equilibria uniform price equilibria and nonuniform price equilibria a consumer cannot infer the expert s type from his price list in a uniform price equilibrium but can do that in a nonuniform price equilibrium when the fraction of the conscientious expert is small the selfish expert will be honest about the severity of the consumer s problem when the fraction of the conscientious expert is large the selfish expert will cheat the consumer overcharging the consumer whenever he offers to repair the problem finally more conscientious experts may result in a larger social loss when the fraction of the conscientious expert is close to one of the two extremes 0 and 1 more conscientious experts will result in smaller social loss when the fraction of the conscientious expert is in a middle range more conscientious experts may result in a larger social loss

climate change and birth weight there is a growing consensus that emissions of greenhouse gases due to human activity will alter the earth s climate most notably by causing temperatures precipitation levels and weather variability to increase the design of optimal climate change mitigation policies requires estimates of the health and other benefits of reductions in greenhouse gases current evidence on the magnitude of the direct and indirect impacts however is considered insufficient for reliable conclusions a j mcmichael et al 2003 1 in addition to the overall predicted warming trend one important feature of many global climate change forecasts is an increased incidence of very high and low temperatures to provide evidence of the potential benefits of greenhouse gas reductions this paper documents whether the temperature variation predicted to be part of climate change including extreme high and low temperatures historically has had negative health consequences through its effect on babies while in utero using individual level data on more than 37 1 million births we find that exposure to extreme hot temperatures during pregnancy leads to lower birth weight we combine this

the effect of female education on fertility and infant health evidence from school entry policies using exact date of birth this paper uses age at school entry policies to identify the effect of female education on fertility and infant health we focus on sharp contrasts in schooling fertility and infant health between women born just before and after the school entry date school entry policies affect female education and the quality of a woman s mate and have generally small but possibly heterogeneous effects on fertility and infant health we argue that school entry policies manipulate primarily the education of young women at risk of dropping out of school

international market response to announcements of us macroeconomic data abstract this paper presents empirical evidence relating the announcement effects of us money supply and inflation cpi and ppi to eurocurrency interest rates and the foreign currency markets both spot and forward for seven industrial countries over the period 1977 1982 the results indicate that unanticipated components of announced changes in money supply have a significant positive effect on eurocurrency interest rates and a negative effect implying dollar appreciation on the spot exchange rates unanticipated changes in ppi have a positive significant effect on interest rates a small surprisingly negative impact on spot exchange rates and a positive effect on gold prices the cpi has no effect on either market

the influence of fundamentals on exchange rates findings from analyses of news effects as we survey the literature of macroeconomic news in the foreign exchange market we can by now look back on nearly 30 years of research the first studies which analysed news effects on exchange rates were established in the early 1990s see for example dornbusch almost at the same time meese and rogoff published their influential paper revealing the forecasting inferiority in exchange rates of structural models against the random walk this finding has shocked the pillars of exchange rate economics and thus cast general suspicion on research focusing on fundamentals in this field the eventual rising popularity of event studies can partly be attributed to the re establishment of the raison d etre of exchange rate economics this work focuses on systematically surveying this literature with particular respect to its primary goal i e shedding light on the analytical value of fundamental research thus its major findings are first fundamental news does matter whereas non fundamental news matters to a lesser degree second news influences exchange rates via two separated channels i e incorporating common information into prices directly or indirectly based upon order flow third with a few exceptions the impact of fundamental news on exchange rates is fairly stable over time

short term and long term interest rates in a monetary model of a small open economy abstract this paper analyzes the effects of both anticipated and unanticipated monetary and fiscal disturbances on the dynamic behavior of a monetary model of a small open economy it focuses on the adjustment of the short term and long term interest rates and the divergence of their transitional paths particularly in anticipation of these disturbances the analysis demonstrates how anticipation of a future policy change can generate perverse short run behavior the essential reason for the divergence between the short and long rates is that the latter is dominated by long term expectations while the former is primarily determined by current influences

does prenatal wic participation improve birth outcomes new evidence from florida we study the effects of prenatal receipt of nutritional and educational services provided by the supplemental nutrition program for women infants and children wic on birth outcomes our identification strategy consists of two elements 1 identifying families in a very tight income range surrounding the wic eligibility threshold and 2 exploiting a policy change that differentially influenced the wic takeup rates of the families on each side of the eligibility threshold we conduct this analysis by merging three large statewide administrative datasets from florida concerning all births during the period 1997 2001 we match the birth records of infants and the school records of their older siblings in order to relatively precisely identify marginally eligible and marginally ineligible families that are very similar in their observable characteristics we find that wic participation has no effect on mean birth weight and gestational age but substantially reduces the likelihood of adverse birth outcomes e g birth weights below 2500 g

is the dollar high because of large budget deficits abstract it is widely believed that the u s dollar has been high in recent years because of large u s budget deficits using three statistical techniques this paper shows that the belief has no empirical support ricardian equivalence may explain the lack of a positive association between the budget deficit and the dollar s exchange rate

can targeted transfers improve birth outcomes evidence from the introduction of the wic program abstract the goal of federal food and nutrition programs in the united states is to improve the nutritional well being and health of low income families a large body of literature evaluates the extent to which the supplemental program for women infants and children wic has accomplished this goal but most studies have been based on research designs that compare program participants to non participants if selection into these programs is non random then such comparisons will lead to biased estimates of the program s true effects in this study we use the rollout of the wic program across counties to estimate the impact of the program on infant health we find that the implementation of wic led to an increase in average birth weight and a decrease in the fraction of births that are classified as low birth weight we find no evidence that these estimates are driven by changes in fertility or selection into live births our preferred estimates suggest that wic initiation raised average birth weight by 2 g or by 7 g among infants born to mothers with low education levels these translate into estimated birth weight increases among participating mothers of approximately 18 to 29 g estimated treatments on the treated impacts among infants born to participating mothers with low education are of similar magnitude

the price of advice we develop a model of consulting advising where the role of the consultant is to reveal signals to her client that refine the client s original private estimate of the profitability of a project although the client can perfectly observe and evaluate these signals the consultant may only be able to do the same imperfectly or not at all this captures the idea that the expert may not fully understand the impact of her advice on the client we characterize the optimal contract between the consultant and her client it is a menu consisting of pairs of transfers specifying payments between the two parties in case the project is undertaken by the client and in case it is not the main result of the article is that in the optimal mechanism the consultant obtains the same profit as though she could perfectly observe and evaluate the impact of the signals whose release she controls on the client s profit estimate

asymmetric information and legislative rules some amendments we reexamine the major tenets of the informational theory of legislative rules focusing on the informational efficiency of rules with varying degrees of restrictiveness when committees are heterogeneous full efficiency is attainable under the unrestrictive open rule as well as the somewhat restrictive modified rule in contrast the restrictive closed rule always leads to inefficiencies when committees are homogeneous the situation is different all equilibria are inefficient regardless of legislative rules but the closed rule leads to greater informational efficiency than does the open rule furthermore the efficiency gains under the closed rule more than offset distributional losses regardless of the degree of preference divergence we also examine the incentives provided by the different rules for information acquisition and committee specialization

second opinions and price competition inefficiency in the market for expert advice we consider a market in which an expert must exert costly but unobservable effort to identify the service that meets the consumer s need in our model experts offer competing contracts and the consumer may gather multiple opinions we explore the incentives that a competitive sampling of prices and opinions provides for experts to exert effort and find that there is a tension between price competition and the equilibrium effort in particular the equilibrium fails to realize the second best welfare optimum an intervention that limits price competition via price control increases welfare

a time series analysis of unemployment and health the case of birth outcomes in new york city abstract the paper presents an aggregate time series analysis of unemployment and infant health that improves on previous work in several ways first the data is monthly as opposed to annual second the measure of health the percentage of low birthweight births and the health inputs are rare specific third because a pregnancy is limited to at most ten months we can specify a lag length with a greater degree of confidence we find no cyclical variation in the percentage of low birthweight births the results are insensitive to changes in lag length health inputs and functional form

output effects of government purchases the theoretical analysis focuses on the distinction between temporary and permanent movements in government purchases under plausible conditions the temporary case involves an output response that is positive less than one to one with the change in government purchases and larger than that generated by an equal sized but permanent shift in purchase the equilibrium real rate of return rise in the temporary case but changes little in the permanent one defense purchases are divided empirically into permanent and temporary components by considering the role of temporary wars no temporary shifts in nondefense purchases were isolated empirical results verify an expansionary output effect for temporary purchases that exceeds that of permanent purchases the results for some other expectational hypotheses are found to be generally supportive of the theory

saving babies revisiting the effect of very low birth weight classification we reconsider the effect of very low birth weight classification on infant mortality we demonstrate that the estimates are highly sensitive to the exclusion of observations in the immediate vicinity of the 1 500 g threshold weakening the confidence in the results originally reported in almond doyle kowalski and williams 2010

the ricardian approach to budget deficits persistent budget deficits have increased economists interest in theories and evidence about fiscal policy this paper develops the ricardian approach and contrasts it with standard models the discussion considers from major theoretical objections to ricardian equivalence finite lifetimes imperfect capital markets uncertainty about future taxes and incomes and the distorting effects of taxation the paper then considers empirical evidence on interest rates consumption and saving and current account deficits the conclusion is that the ricardian approach is a useful first order approximation and that this approach will probably become the benchmark model for assessing fiscal policy this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

do physicians financial incentives affect medical treatment and patient health we investigate whether physicians financial incentives influence health care supply technology diffusion and resulting patient outcomes in 1997 medicare consolidated the geographic regions across which it adjusts physician payments generating area specific price shocks areas with higher payment shocks experience significant increases in health care supply on average a 2 percent increase in payment rates leads to a 3 percent increase in care provision elective procedures such as cataract surgery respond much more strongly than less discretionary services non radiologists expand their provision of mris suggesting effects on technology adoption we estimate economically small health impacts albeit with limited precision

superfund cleanups and infant health in 1980 outcry over the health effects of toxic waste in love canal new york resulted in the comprehensive environmental response compensation and liability act which became known as superfund superfund was intended to provide a mechanism for conducting remedial clean ups at the most dangerous hazardous waste sites over the years it became the largest and most expensive federal program to deal with toxic waste in the us given the substantial cost and slow rate of clean up there is considerable debate on whether it is in the public interest to continue the program in its current form epa 2006 while the costs of the programs are clear its benefits are not well understood indeed the policy is controversial in part because there is a paucity of reliable information on the program s benefits some previous studies find poorer birth outcomes near a site while others do not see martine vrijheid 2000 however evidence of a correlation between proximity to a site and poor birth outcomes does not necessarily represent a causal effect because populations living near hazardous waste sites are typically different from the general population and their health outcomes are likely to differ even in the absence of negative health effects from exposure for example michael greenstone and justin gallagher 2008 found that residents of areas near hazardous waste sites are more likely to be poor and have lower levels of education than others our project is the first to examine the effect of site cleanups on infant health rather than simply focusing on proximity to a site we focus on single births that occurred within 5km of a superfund site between 1989 and 2003 in five large states florida michigan new jersey pennsylvania and texas the basis of our difference in differences approach is to compare changes in birth outcomes before and after a site s clean up among births to mothers who live within 2 000 meters of the site and among those who live between 2 000 and 5 000 meters away our approach is made feasible by access to confidential vital statistics data that includes the exact street address of the mother s residence our large sample gives us statistical power to detect small effects

the economics of breakdowns checkups and cures a market in which the owner of a durable good x contracts with an expert for diagnostic and treatment services is studied good x may be in one of three states health disease or failure only experts can determine whether x is healthy or diseased and perform treatment the owner cannot tell whether recommended treatment is really needed this creates an information based demand for health insurance by risk neutral consumers imperfections in the market for spot insurance may give rise to free diagnostic checks strategic procrastination and long term health maintenance agreements

equilibrium informativeness in veto games abstract in a veto game a biased expert recommends an action that an uninformed decision maker can accept or reject for an outside option the arrangement is ubiquitous in political institutions corporations and consumer markets but has seen limited use in applications due to a poor understanding of the equilibrium set and an ensuing debate over selection we develop a simple method to construct every veto equilibrium and identify the most informative equilibrium in a setting that spans prior work we show that krishna and morgan s 2001 equilibrium is maximally informative and strengthen dessein s 2002 comparison of full delegation and veto in an application we study the relationship between a patient and a doctor with a financial incentive to overtreat and show that the doctor s bias harms the patient both through excessive treatment and information loss that the latter can be substantial and that insurance benefits both parties by improving communication

sales talk cancellation terms and the role of consumer protection this paper analyses contract cancellation and product return policies in mar kets in which sellers advise customers about the suitability of their oering when customers are fully rational it is optimal for sellers to oer the right to cancel or return on favorable terms a generous return policy makes the seller s cheap talk at the point of sale credible this observation provides a possible explanation for the excess refund puzzle and also has implications for the management of customer reviews when customers are credulous instead sellers have an incentive to set unfavorable terms to exploit the in ated beliefs they induce in their customers the imposition of a minimum statutory standard even if it is not binding can improve welfare and consumer surplus when at least some customers are credulous in con trast competition policy reduces contractual ine ciencies with rational customers but it is not eective with credulous customers

prices versus nudges what matters for search versus purchase of energy investments abstract we report the results of a field experiment where we exogenously vary the use of social comparison nudges and subsidies for participation in an in home energy audit program we follow subjects through to subsequent purchase of durable goods we therefore can compare the causal effect of financial incentives and nudges along two margins audits which we liken to search and purchase of durables using data on nearly 100 000 households we document that both prices and nudges cause a statistically significant increase in audits comparing point estimates effective nudges are worth roughly 50 70 however we find that neither nudges nor subsidies do not significantly impact installations

can higher cigarette taxes improve birth outcomes abstract this study examines whether higher state cigarette taxes can be used to improve birth outcomes data on the outcomes of interest are taken from the 1989 1992 natality detail files generating a sample of roughly 10 5 million births the results suggest that smoking participation among pregnant women declines and average birth weights rise when excise taxes are increased these results can be used to form an instrumental variables estimate of the impact of smoking on birth weight this estimate is remarkably close to numbers from a random assignment clinical trial the smoking participation price elasticity is estimated to be 0 5

mother s education and the intergenerational transmission of human capital evidence from college openings we examine the effect of maternal education on birth outcomes using vital statistics natality data from 1970 to 1999 we also assess the importance of four channels through which maternal education may improve birth outcomes use of prenatal care smoking marriage and fertility in an effort to account for the endogeneity of education attainment we use data about the availability of colleges in the womans country in her 17th year as an instrument for maternal education we find that higher maternal education improves infant health as measured by birth weight and gestational age it also increases the probability that a new mother is married reduces parity increases use of prenatal care and reduces smoking suggesting that may be important pathways for the ultimate effect on health our results add to the growing body of literature which suggests that estimates of the returns to education which focus only on increases in wages understate the total return

honesty in a model of strategic information transmission we consider the following simple model of consumer fraud consumers need one of two possible repairs an expensive repair denoted e or an inexpensive repair denoted i the exogenous probability that a consumer needs the more costly remedy is r each consumer is assumed to know r an expert can observe with certainty which of the two repairs is needed and can offer to sell either to the consumer in a simple extension we allow for uncertainty with respect to the expert s observation we assume that selling the expensive remedy to a consumer who needs only the inexpensive one is more profitable than selling the inexpensive one thus h eii h1 iji where h denotes profit and i denotes conditional on needing the profit functions are increasing in the price of the respective repairs for convenience we suppress the dependence of h on prices in our notation we also assume that a consumer prefers to obtain the appropriate repair to the inappropriate one thus u eie u ije and u iii u eii where u is the consumer s payoff lastly we assume that the functions u eje and u e i are decreasing in the price of the expensive repair and that u iie and u iii are decreasing in the price of the inexpensive repair we also assume that u iie is decreasing in the price of the expensive repair since the consumer ultimately buys the expensive repair in this case see below for further assumptions regarding the repairs we are interested in the equilibrium levels of honesty in this model how honest is the expert at the equilibrium do consumers always follow the expert s advice does the level of honesty increase as the interests of the agents become more similar in a sense to be defined below our assumptions are similar to those in the abstract strategic information transmission models of vincent crawford and joel sobel 1982 and jerry green and nancy stokey 1980 we follow the former paper which asks whether the signals sent become less noisy as the agents preferences become more similar despite the similarity of our model to crawford sobel s we arrive at some different conclusions with respect to the expert s honesty vis a vis the agents closeness of interests we explain this in detail in section iii in addition we allow that the expert may be uncertain about the true state of the world we also explicitly model the level of expert honesty which extends crawford sobel the outline of the paper is as follows in section i we provide the details of the model and show that a unique equilibrium exists comparative static results and a simple extension incorporating the assumption of the incompetent expert are given in section ii we draw comparisons with crawfordsobel in section iii in section iv we conclude with a brief summary

consumer information in a market for expert services abstract we present a model of credence goods in which the consumers are heterogenous in terms of the valuation they place for getting a serious problem fixed we introduce consumer information into this framework by assuming that prior to visiting an expert some consumers receive an information signal about whether they have a serious or a minor problem we show that when the fraction of consumers with low willingness to pay is sufficiently high the expert does not cheat any low valuation consumer regardless of their information status but cheats the high valuation consumers those high valuation consumers with bad signals are the most frequent victims of cheating whereas those with good signals are the least likely victims when the fraction of consumers with low willingness to pay is below a certain threshold however the unique equilibrium involves no cheating

on the role of verifiability and commitment in credence goods markets a client has a problem but does not know whether it is serious or minor she consults an expert who can correctly diagnose and fix her problem this paper characterizes the equilibrium pricing and recommendation strategies of an expert under the assumptions that i the type of treatment is verifiable by the client ii the client has the option of rejecting any treatment recommendation and iii the expert is not liable for the outcome of the treatment it is found for any parameter configuration that there exist equilibria in which the expert makes fraudulent recommendations resulting in inefficient treatment the market outcome is compared with that under an alternative market environment in which the expert is liable for treatment outcome but the type of treatment performed is non verifiable it is shown that for some parameter configurations the equilibrium is more efficient when liability is in place than when the treatment is verifiable these findings stand in sharp contrast to the received wisdom that the market outcome under verifiability of treatment is efficient while the market outcome under liability for outcome is not finally this paper shows that the existence of some honest experts may induce more fraudulent behavior by opportunistic experts

estimating marginal returns to medical care evidence from at risk newborns a key policy question is whether the benefits of additional medical expenditures exceed their costs we propose a new approach for estimating marginal returns to medical spending based on variation in medical inputs generated by diagnostic thresholds specifically we combine regression discontinuity estimates that compare health outcomes and medical treatment provision for newborns on either side of the very low birth weight threshold at 1500 grams first using data on the census of us births in available years from 1983 2002 we find that newborns with birth weights just below 1500 grams have lower one year mortality rates than do newborns with birth weights just above this cutoff even though mortality risk tends to decrease with birth weight one year mortality falls by approximately one percentage point as birth weight crosses 1500 grams from above which is large relative to mean infant mortality of 5 5 just above 1500 grams second using hospital discharge records for births in five states in available years from 1991 2006 we find that newborns with birth weights just below 1500 grams have discontinuously higher charges and frequencies of specific medical inputs hospital costs increase by approximately 4 000 as birth weight crosses 1500 grams from above relative to mean hospital costs of 40 000 just above 1500 grams under an assumption that observed medical spending fully captures the impact of the very low birth weight designation on mortality our estimates suggest that the cost of saving a statistical life of a newborn with birth weight near 1500 grams is on the order of 550 000 in 2006 dollars

credence goods costly diagnosis and subjective evaluation we study contracting between a consumer and an expert the expert can invest in diagnosis to obtain a noisy signal about whether a low cost service is sufficient or whether a high cost treatment is required to solve the consumer s problem this involves moral hazard because diagnosis effort and signals are not observable treatments are contractible but success or failure of the low cost treatment is observed only by the consumer payments can therefore not depend on the objective outcome but only the consumer s report or subjective evaluation a failure of the low cost treatment delays the solution of the consumer s problem by the high cost treatment to a second period we show that the first best solution can always be implemented if the parties discount rate is zero an increase in the discount rate reduces the range of parameter combinations for which the first best can be obtained in an extension we show that the first best is also always implementable if diagnosis and treatment can be separated by contracting with two different agents

budget selection when agents compete abstract a principal selects a budget k of how many projects to fund within an organization and then consults n agents each of whom has private information about his own project s value after receiving cheap talk reports from the agents the principal decides which projects to implement subject to the budget and agents report on new i i d projects every period until the budget is exhausted when the budget is small relative to the number of agents each of whom are biased towards their own projects competition between agents degrades the quality of information conveyed in equilibrium and lowers the principal s payoff a larger budget induces less competition and therefore may be selected in order to extract more information from the agents even though this leads to some unprofitable projects being adopted in an extension i find that a policy of never allowing a funded agent to seek funding again increases payoffs compared to when the agent can always re seek funding

fetal exposures to toxic releases and infant health every year millions of pounds of toxic chemicals thought to be linked to developmental problems in fetuses and young children are released into the air in this paper we estimate the effect of these releases on the health of newborns using data from the toxic release inventory program and vital statistics natality and mortality files we find significant negative effects of prenatal exposure to toxicants on gestation and birth weight we also find that several developmental chemicals increase the probability of infant death the effect is quite sizeable the reported reductions in cadmium toluene and epichlorohydrin releases during the 90s could account for about 3 9 percent of the overall decrease in infant mortality our results are robust to several specification checks such as comparing developmental to non developmental chemicals and fugitive air releases to stack air releases

when do experts cheat and whom do they target a credence good is a product or service whose usefulness or necessity is better known to the seller than to the buyer this information asymmetry often persists even after the credence good is consumed i propose two new theories of expert cheating suggesting that identifiable heterogeneities among customers can cause expert sellers to defraud their customers according to these theories cheating arises as a substitute for price discrimination and experts cheat selectively for instance experts target high valuation and high cost customers finally selective cheating may damage the communication of useful information from customers to experts and result in inferior services

health insurance and the demand for medical care evidence from a randomized experiment we estimate how cost sharing the portion of the bill the patient pays affects the demand for medical services the data come from a randomized experiment a catastrophic insurance plan reduces expenditures 31 percent relative to zero out of pocket price the price elasticity is approximately 0 2 we reject the hypothesis that less favorable coverage of outpatient services increases total expenditure for example by deterring preventive care or inducing hospitalization

veto based delegation in a principal agent model with hidden information and no monetary transfers i establish the veto power principle any incentive compatible outcome can be implemented through veto based delegation with an endogenously chosen default decision this result demonstrates the exact nature of commitment powers required by the principal 1 to design the default outcome and 2 to ensure that she has almost no formal control over the agent s decisions

budget deficits rhetoric and reality w v t hatever the real or imagined ills of the economy the news media most politicians and a fair proportion of the economics profession are quick to point to the culprit the budget deficit no matter that few appear to know or care precisely what deficit they are talking about or how it is measured no matter that few bother to explain in terms of a relevant model just how government deficits may be expected to impact the economy no matter that few offer any empirical data to sustain their judgments so budget deficits cause inflation budget deficits raise interest rates budget deficits bring on the trade deficits budget deficits crowd out investment budget deficits are an irresponsible mortgage on the future and budget deficits caused the october 1987 stock market crash and now threaten further financial cataclysms is there truth in any of these assertions or does it all depend budget deficits do matter and their effects contrary to barro s ricardian equivalence theorem can be substantial as most economists have recognized for at least half a century budget deficits can however be too small as well as too large to know which you have to measure them right and you have to analyze their role in the world in which we live pure walrasian and rational expectation market clearing models may prove more useful for academic advancement than for promotion of economic health i need not repeat many of the objections to the equivalence theorem raised by bernheim and gramlich and addressed by barro in this symposium however there is

public health investments and the infant mortality gap evidence from federal sanitation interventions on u s indian reservations abstract to what extent do differential levels of investment in public health inputs explain observed differences in health outcomes across socioeconomic and racial groups this study investigates the impact of 3700 projects that were part of a widespread federal initiative to improve sanitation infrastructure on u s indian reservations starting in 1960 sanitation investment substantially reduced the cost of clean water for households leading to sharp reductions in both waterborne gastrointestinal disease and infectious respiratory disease among native american infants the sanitation program was quite cost effective in part because improvements in the overall disease environment also reduced infectious respiratory disease among nearby white infants despite the health externalities federal sanitation interventions explain almost forty percent of the convergence in native american and white infant mortality rates in reservation counties since 1970

the implications of current policies on the production of infant health this study examines the possible link between the current trend to reduce availability of abortion services and the incidence of low birthweight births using current data on births and abortions in atlanta and new york city we update and expand the earlier empirical results of grossman and joyce the journal of political economy 1990 98 5 98 1007 using their latent variable model framework we find some evidence for the cost of abortion model which assumes that increasing the full costs of abortion will be associated with more low birthweight hence less healthy infants these results indicate that current trends towards the reduction of funding for various social services could exacerbate the problem of low birthweight

structural federal deficits and interest rates some causality and co integration tests the relationship between federal budget deficits and interest rates has been the focus of extensive research recently cebula 4 examined this relationship empirically and concluded that the federal budget deficit does in fact exercise a positive and significant impact upon the nominal moody s aaa rated corporate bond rate 4 208 such a finding is at odds with the great majority of recent empirical studies in this area if valid this finding assigns to large deficits significant adverse effects on both private investment crowding out and on trade balance via an overvalued dollar given these profound public policy implications cebula s finding warrants further examination

impact of immigration on prenatal care use and birth weight evidence from california in the 1990 s the mid 1990 s witnessed the passage of two legislative measures restricting noncitizens use of public services in response to the extensive and costly use of public assistance by immigrants reported by earlier studies jane l ross 1996 first the immigration control and financial responsibility act restricted illegal immigrants access to medical services and to other forms of public assistance in addition the personal responsibility and work opportunity reconciliation act extended the restriction to legal immigrants entering the country after its enactment for at least five years after entry and effectively until they naturalize however some states with large immigrant populations like california chose to institute state funded substitute benefits for immigrants losing federal assistance in spite of these states assistance possibly working as an immigrant magnet george j borjas 2001 the literature emerging after welfare reform has often found a greater decline in the use of public assistance particularly medicaid among noncitizen households relative to citizens this finding has been attributed to the chilling effects of welfare reform wendy zimmermann and michael fix 1998 in light of these findings should we now expect greater noncitizenship rates to ease access to public services or rather to impose a burden on access to public services in this paper we look into this question and examine the impact of noncitizenship rates on women s use of prenatal care pnc over the period 1991 2000 in california we focus on women s pnc use given the health implications that pnc can have for both mother and infant and yet the lack of studies examining the role of noncitizenship rates even in high immigration areas on women s pnc use we use 1991 and 2000 to assess significant changes in the effect of noncitizenship rates on women s pnc use before and after the 1996 reform additionally we focus on california due to its population size and its large immigrant population of whom approximately 61 percent are noncitizens finally given the implications of adequate pnc on newborns birth weight through the early detection and treatment of any existing health problems we examine how pnc in turn has affected the birth weight of babies born in california over the examined time period in sum this study addresses the following questions has the effect of noncitizenship rates on women s pnc use changed before and after the 1996 reform in particular do greater noncitizenship rates result in reduced pnc use due to increased competition for public services or do they lead to increased pnc use due to welfare reform s chilling effect and increased awareness of the importance of pnc furthermore how does pnc use affect birth weight

interest rates and expected future budget deficits in the united states several recent empirical studies have found no evidence of a positive association between interest rates and current and past budget deficits one possible explanation for this finding is that interest rates are related much more to the expectation of future budget deficits than to current and past budget deficits in this paper i investigate whether this explanation is valid finding no evidence that it is section ii briefly formulates and discusses the hypothesis under consideration stating some of its implications section iii presents the results of regressing the commercial paper rate moody s aaa bond rate and the ex post real commercial paper rate on current and past government spending budget deficits and real money supplies the regressions have been fitted to the entire sample of monthly data spanning the period between june 1908 and march 1984 and to 11

information transmission in regulated markets the seminal papers of vincent p crawford and joel sobel 1982 and jerry green and nancy stokey 1980 study models in which a signal about the state of the world is transmitted from a perfectly informed sender to an uninformed receiver the authors study a model in which multiple signalers compete for consumers the authors ask how much information is revealed how consumers shopping around affects this information and how each is affected by incentives an implication of the model is that in a price regulated market for health care patients should not be prohibited from gathering more than one opinion

physician payments and infant mortality evidence from medicaid fee policy while efforts to improve the health of the uninsured have focused on demand side policies such as increasing insurance coverage supply side changes may be equally important yet there is little direct evidence on the effect of policies designed to increase the supply of medicaid services to the poor we provide such evidence by examining the relationship between infant mortality and the ratio of medicaid fees to private fees for obstetrician gynecologists we build a state and year specific index of the fee ratio for 1979 1992 a period of substantial variation in relative medicaid fees we find that increases in fee ratios are associated with significant declines in the infant mortality rate we also find that higher fees raise payments made to physicians and clinics under the medicaid program but reduce payments to hospitals finally we compare the cost effectiveness of reducing infant mortality by increasing fee ratios to the efficacy of reducing mortality by expanding the medicaid eligibility of pregnant women although our results are sensitive to the time period used we conclude that raising fee ratios is at least as cost effective as increasing eligibility this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

wealth health and child development evidence from administrative data on swedish lottery players we use administrative data on swedish lottery players to estimate the causal impact of substantial wealth shocks on players own health and their children s health and developmental outcomes our estimation sample is large virtually free of attrition and allows us to control for the factors conditional on which the prizes were randomly assigned in adults we find no evidence that wealth impacts mortality or health care utilization with the possible exception of a small reduction in the consumption of mental health drugs our estimates allow us to rule out effects on 10 year mortality one sixth as large as the crosssectional wealth mortality gradient in our intergenerational analyses we find that wealth increases children s health care utilization in the years following the lottery and may also reduce obesity risk the effects on most other child outcomes including drug consumption scholastic performance and skills can usually be bounded to a tight interval around zero overall our findings suggest that in affluent countries with extensive social safety nets causal effects of wealth are not a major source of the wealth mortality gradients nor of the observed relationships between child developmental outcomes and household income jel codes i10 i14 j24

the ricardian equivalence proposition evidence from foreign exchange markets abstract the major argument against running large government budget deficits is that they raise interest rates and crowd out real investment conclusive evidence of a relationship between large budget deficits and high interest rates has not been found two competing explanations are tested by examining the impact of government udget announcements on foreign exchange rates the ricardian equivalence proposition that deficits have no crowding out effects is compared to the conventional open economy hhypothesis that capital mobility transfers these effects to foreign exchange rates the results supports the open economy hypothesis over the ricardian equivalence proposition jel f41

the law of one price in the eurocurrency market abstract this paper studies the interest rate parity arbitrage condition in the eurocurrency market in the period 1967 to 1980 the results suggest that this market is relatively efficient with few opportunities for arbitrage profits turbulance associated with external shocks to this market is relatively short lived the evidence indicates that the foreign exchange and eurocurrency markets respond rapidly to monetary shocks

variation in the fiscal multiplier with the method of financing evidence across industrial countries government spending has often varied with the business cycle to stimulate the economy and to revive economic conditions however the state of public finances has often necessitated higher borrowing to finance widening fiscal deficits indeed recent austerity packages around the globe have crystalized the importance of fiscal consolidation against the backdrop of rising public debt to shed light on recent debates regarding fiscal multipliers the article estimates variation in these multipliers with the method of financing using annual data for a sample of industrial countries there is a large variation in the effects of expansionary and contractinary government spending shocks on economic variables within and across countries the significant effects of negative government spending shocks fiscal contraction appear more prevalent than those of expansionary shocks on real output growth price inflation and nominal wage inflation consistent with theory s predictions the fiscal multiplier is more lik

estimating a household production function heterogeneity the demand for health inputs and their effects on birth weight the household production literature emphasizes that technical or biological processes condition input selection by households in their production activities along with prices and income exogenous variations in health to the extent that they are perceived by individuals heterogeneity lead to correlations between inputs and health outcomes that cannot be used to derive causal conclusions therefore estimates of health technology must be obtained from a behavioral model in which health inputs are themselves choices consistent estimates are reported of the effect of endogenous inputs such as medical care smoking and fertility on birth weight and fetal growth in the presence of health heterogeneity

conflicts of interest information provision and competition in the financial services industry abstract in some markets sellers have better information than buyers over which products best serve a buyer s needs depending on the market structure this may lead to conflicts of interest in the provision of information by sellers this paper studies this issue in the market for financial services the analysis presents a new model of competition between banks where price competition influences the ensuing incentives for truthful information revelation we also compare conflicts of interest in two different firm structures specialized banking and one stop banking

welfare and child health the link between afdc participation and birth weight the stated goal of the aid for families with dependent children program is to improve the well being of children in poor families the program has come under considerable attack in recent years from critics who argue that participation in afdc is associated with maternal behaviors that are bad for children we investigate this question using birth weight as a measure of child health we find that participation in afdc during pregnancy is associated with delays in obtaining prenatal care smoking and drinking during pregnancy younger maternal age at the birth and ultimately with lower birth weights even when observable characteristics of the mother are controlled for however we show that when unobservable characteristics of the mother are controlled for there is actually a positive association between participation in afdc and the birth weights of children of white women from poor families we find no association between birth weight and maternal participation in afdc among black children

ethics welfare and markets an economic analysis the present article examines society s welfare when goods with identical physical attributes can be produced using two alternative technologies one of them less ethically desirable but less expensive for at least some producers for the scenario where identification costs must be borne by producers and consumers of the high quality good the outcome under unregulated markets is identical to the optimal solution of a central planner constrained to neither ban the undesirable technology nor segregate the low quality good however under certain circumstances the unregulated market equilibrium may be improved upon by government intervention that shifts the burden of identification costs to the producers of the low quality good or which bans the production of the low quality good the optimal intervention needs to be determined case by case and depends on consumer preferences relative production costs and relative costs of identification and fraud prevention

new evidence on deficits and interest rates it is generally assumed on theoretical grounds that increases in government borrowing cause interest rates to rise 1 but empirical support for this proposition has been weak at best several recent papers have uncovered no strong relationship between deficits and short terrn interest rates however the research reported here indicates that although the relationship between deficits and short terrn interest rates may be tenuous there is strong evidence that larger deficits are associated with higher long terrn interest rates much of the debate about whether there is a strong relationship between federal borrowing and interest rates concerns the crowding out question this controversy centers on the direct and indirect eilffects of government fiscal actions on private spending these effects have been well documented in the theoretical literature e g buiter 1977 carlson and spencer 1975 blinder and solow 1973 many of the crowding out effects studied in this literature depend on the connection between government borrowing and high interest rates friedman 1978 meyer 1975 silber 1970 this is called short run indirect crowding out and may occur when increases in government spending and borrowing cause interest rates to rise which then may cause private spending to be reduced buiter 1977 pp 310 13

credence goods monopolists abstract with a credence good consumers never discover how much of the good they actually need therefore the seller acts as the expert determining the customers requirements this information asymmetry creates strong incentives for the seller to cheat on services we analyze whether the market mechanism may induce non fraudulent seller behavior we consider four scenarios differing in the amount of information consumers have at hand to infer the seller s incentives to be honest in three constellations the profit maximizing credence goods monopolist provides honest services only in one scenario there is no trade

inside the war on poverty the impact of food stamps on birth outcomes this paper evaluates the health impacts of a signature initiative of the war on poverty the introduction of the modern food stamp pro gram fsp using variation in the month fsp began operating in each u s county we find that pregnancies exposed to fsp three months prior to birth yielded deliveries with increased birth weight with the largest gains at the lowest birth weights we also find small but statistically insig nificant improvements in neonatal mortality we conclude that the sizable increase in income from fsp improved birth outcomes for both whites and african americans with larger impacts for african american mothers n this paper we evaluate the health consequences of a sizable improvement in the resources available to ameri ca s poorest in particular we examine the impact of the food stamp program fsp which in 2007 provided 34 billion in payments to about 13 million households on infant health our paper makes two distinct contributions first although the goal of the fsp is to increase the nutri tion of the poor few papers have examined its impact on health outcomes second building on work by hoynes and schanzenbach 2009 we argue that the fsp treatment represents an exogenous increase in income for the poor our analysis therefore represents a causal estimate of the impact of income on health an important topic with little convincing evidence due to concerns about endogeneity and reverse causality currie 2009 we use the natural experiment afforded by the nation wide rollout of the modern fsp during the 1960s and early 1970s our identification strategy uses the sharp timing of the county by county rollout of the fsp which was initially constrained by congressional funding authorizations and ultimately became available in all counties by 1975 speci fically we use information on the month the fsp began operating in each of the roughly 3 100 u s counties and examine the impact of the fsp rollout on mean birth weight low birth weight gestation and neonatal mortality throughout the history of the fsp the program para meters have been set by the u s department of agriculture usda and are uniform across states in the absence of the state level variation often leveraged by economists to eval uate transfer programs previous fsp research has typically resorted to strong assumptions as to the comparability of fsp participants and eligible nonparticipants currie 2003 not surprisingly the literature is far from settled as to what casual impact if any the fsp has on nutrition and health hoynes and schanzenbach 2009 use this county rollout to examine the impact of the fsp on food consumption using the psid they found that the introduction of the fsp increased total food spending and decreased out of pocket food spending importantly consistent with the predictions of canonical microeconomic theory the magnitude of the increase in food expenditures was similar to an equivalent sized income transfer implying that most recipient house holds were inframarginal that is they would spend more on the subsidized good than the face value of the in kind transfer as one of the largest antipoverty programs in the united states comparable in cost to the earned income tax credit eitc and substantially larger than temporary assistance to needy families tanf understanding fsp effects is valuable both in its own right and for what it reveals about the relationship between income and health 1

physician response to fee changes with multiple payers this paper develops a general model of physician behavior with demand inducement encompassing the two benchmark cases of profit maximization and target income behavior it is shown that when income effects are absent physicians maximize profits and when income effects are very strong physicians seek a target income the model is used to derive own and cross price expressions for the response of physicians to fee changes in the realistic context of more than one payer under the alternative behavior assumptions of profit maximization and target income behavior the implications for public and private fee policy and empirical research on physician response to fees are discussed

access to care provider choice and the infant health gradient poor women typically use different medical providers than the non poor resulting in de facto segregation of the poor in separate hospitals they also have worse birth outcomes this holds even for poor women with full insurance through medicaid and controlling for geographic location in this paper we explore the causes and consequences of using different providers we exploit an exogenous change in policy that occurred in california in the early 1990s that suddenly increased medicaid payments to providers we find that women with medicaid began delivering in the same hospitals as those with private insurance suggesting that lack of access was partly responsible for the segregation and the observed differences in health however we find that individual choice not just access also matters we find that black mothers responded least to the increase in provider access afforded by the policy change even though they benefited the most in terms of reduced neonatal mortality and fewer pre term births

first do no harm tort reform and birth outcomes in the 1980s and 1990s many states adopted tort reforms it has been argued that these reforms have reduced the practice of defensive medicine arising from excess tort liability we find that this does not appear to be true for a large and important class of cases childbirth in the united states using data from national vital statistics natality files on millions of individual births from 1989 to 2001 we ask whether specific tort reforms affect the types of procedures that are performed and the health outcomes of mothers and their infants we find that reform of the joint and several liability rule or the deep pockets rule reduces complications of labor and procedure use whereas caps on noneconomic damages increase them we show that these results are consistent with a model of tort reform that explicitly allows for variations in patient condition

smoking bans maternal smoking and birth outcomes an important externality of smoking is the harm it might cause to those who do not smoke this paper examines the impact on birth outcomes of children of female workers who are aected by smoking bans in the workplace analyzing a 2004 law change in norway that extended smoking restrictions to bars and restaurants we find that children of female workers in restaurants and bars born after the law change saw significantly lower rates of being born below the very low birth weight vlbw threshold and were less likely to be born pre term using detailed data on smoking status during pregnancy we find that relative to the control group most of the benefits arise from changes in smoking behavior of the mother the eect of second hand smoke exposure on birth outcomes in this formulation appears to be quite small however we find suggestive evidence of substituting behavior i e a greater likelihood of smoking at home among fathers since children born to male workers in restaurants and bars after this law change appear to have slightly worse outcomes using individual tax data we find that the law change did not result in changes in earnings or employment opportunities for those aected thus suggesting that the eects seen are likely a direct result of changes in smoke exposure in utero using a twins based analysis we link very low birth weight status to adult labor force participation and suggest that via the improvements in birth weight alone the smoking restriction law in norway could result in a 0 2 percentage point increase in full time employment by age 28

interest rate parity tests switzerland and some major western countries abstract this article reviews briefly the interest rate parity ip theory and possible divergences between covered interest rates on two assets denominated in different currencies from direct ip tests involving pairs of assets denominated in sfr and dm using monthly data on 3 month treasury bills and on 3 month euro deposits it appears that the theory holds better for euro currency pairs of assets than for domestic pairs further investigation uncovers significant occurence of autocorrelation for domestic pairs possibly indicating left out explanatory factors in the standard ip formulation and points to the non normality of the distrbution of arbitrage margins thus casting doubts on most statistical results in such tests

a game theoretic explanation of the administrative lattice in institutions of higher learning abstract we provide a game theoretic model of academic organizations focusing on the strategic interaction of prototypical overseers administrators and professors by identifying key principal agent games routinely played in colleges and universities we begin to unpack the black box typically used to conceptualize these institutions our approach suggests an explanation for the seemingly inevitable drift of institutions of higher education into such well documented phenomena as academic ratchet and administrative lattice and builds an understanding of the organizational conditions in which drift would be restrained

government financing decisions and asset returns abstract this paper presents an empirical investigation of the relation between government financing decisions and asset returns in particular the focus is on whether a substitution of debt financing for tax financing of a given level of expenditures is associated with an increase in interest rates the paper brings a different perspective to empirical investigations of government fiscal policies by examining the response of asset prices in an efficient capital market to such policies rather than focusing on aggregate consumption behavior the results are consistent with the idea that asset prices are unrelated to how the government finances its expenditures the results however also indicate that the capital market is not indifferent with respect to the level of government expenditures as higher interest rates are associated with increases in government purchases

unemployment and infant health times series evidence from the state of tennessee this is the first study that decomposes unemployment into its structural and cyclical components and investigates their impact on income distribution controlling for the influence of inflation increases in structural unemployment have a substantial

a neoclassical perspective on budget deficits i n the 1988 presidential campaign virtually every serious candidate spoke of the urgent need to trim government budget deficits public opinion polls have identified federal deficits as a key economic issue second only to unemployment while many economists are relieved by what they perceive to be a long overdue political response to a critical economic problem others regard the fuss as much ado about nothing it is indeed remarkable that economists can disagree so severely over an issue which commands such a uniform reaction from laymen of widely different ideologies and political affiliations generally speaking there are three schools of thought concerning the economic effects of budget deficits neoclassical keynesian and ricardian before proceeding further it is useful to review the basic structure and implications of each paradigm the neoclassical paradigm envisions farsighted individuals planning consumption over their own life cycles budget deficits raise total lifetime consumption by shifting taxes to subsequent generations if economic resources are fully employed increased consumption necessarily implies decreased saving interest rates must then rise to bring capital markets into balance thus persistent deficits crowd out private capital accumulation in the current economic environment most economists would agree that these consequences would be highly detrimental