managing without growth abstract there are three main arguments why developed countries should consider managing without growth 1 continued economic growth worldwide is not an option owing to environmental and resource constraints and so developed countries should leave room for growth in developing countries where the benefits of growth are evident 2 in developed countries growth has become uneconomic in the sense that it detracts more from well being than it adds and 3 economic growth in developed countries is neither necessary nor sufficient for meeting specific policy objectives such as full employment no poverty and protection of the environment this paper explores various growth scenarios for canada over the medium range to 2020 using lowgrow a dynamic simulation model after describing lowgrow a scenario is presented that shows conditions under which the rate of unemployment in canada could be reduced to historically low levels poverty eliminated and greenhouse gas emissions reduced to comply with canada s commitment under the kyoto protocol without relying on economic growth this is not to say that zero growth should itself become a policy objective rather that the dependence on and defence of economic growth should not be an obstacle to fulfilling more specific welfare enhancing objectives of full employment eliminating poverty and protecting the environment the paper concludes with some policy implications for managing without growth followed by an annex which provides a technical description of lowgrow

sustainable de growth mapping the context criticisms and future prospects of an emergent paradigm article i nfo sustainable de growth is both a concept and a social grassroots northern movement with its origins in the fieldsofecologicaleconomics socialecology economicanthropologyand environmentalandsocialactivistgroups this paper introduces the concept of sustainable de growth by mapping some of the main intellectual influences fromthese fields with special focus on the francophone and anglophone thinking about this emergent notion we propose hypotheses pertaining to the appeal of sustainable de growth and compare it to the messages enclosed within the dominant sustainable development idea we scrutinize the theses contradictions and consequences of sustainable de growth thinking as it is currently being shaped by a heterogeneous body of literature and as it interacts with an ample and growing corpus of social movements we also discuss possible future paths for the de growth movement compared to the apparent weakening of the sustainable development paradigm

crisis or opportunity economic degrowth for social equity and ecological sustainability introduction to this special issue abstract this article reviews the burgeoning emerging literature on sustainable degrowth this is defined as an equitable downscaling of production and consumption that increases human well being and enhances ecological conditions at the local and global level in the short and long term the paradigmatic propositions of degrowth are that economic growth is not sustainable and that human progress without economic growth is possible degrowth proponents come from diverse origins some are critics of market globalization new technologies or the imposition of western models of development in the rest of the world all criticize gdp accounting though they propose often different social and ecological indicators degrowth theorists and practitioners support an extension of human relations instead of market relations demand a deepening of democracy defend ecosystems and propose a more equal distribution of wealth we distinguish between depression i e unplanned degrowth within a growth regime and sustainable degrowth a voluntary smooth and equitable transition to a regime of lower production and consumption the question we ask is how positive would degrowth be if instead of being imposed by an economic crisis it would actually be a democratic collective decision a project with the ambition of getting closer to ecological sustainability and socio environmental justice worldwide most articles in this issue were originally presented at the april 2008 conference in paris on economic degrowth for ecological sustainability and social equity this conference brought the word degrowth and the concepts around it into an international academic setting articles of this special issue are summarized in this introductory article hueting d alessandro and colleagues van den bergh kerschner spangenberg and alcott discuss whether current growth patterns are un sustainable and offer different perspectives on what degrowth might mean and whether and under what conditions it might be desirable matthey and hamilton focus on social dynamics and the obstacles and opportunities for voluntary social action towards degrowth lietaert and cattaneo with gavalda offer a down to earth empirical discussion of two practical living experiments cohousing and squats highlighting the obstacles for scaling up such alternatives finally van griethuysen explains why growth is an imperative in modern market economies raising also the question whether degrowth is possible without radical institutional changes

commodity price shocks and civil conflict evidence from colombia how do income shocks aect armed con ict theory suggests two op posite eects if labor is used to appropriate resources violently higher wages may lower con ict by reducing labor supplied to appropriation this is the opportunity cost eect alternatively a rise in contestable income may increase violence by raising gains from appropriation this is the rapacity eect our paper exploits exogenous price shocks in inter national commodity markets and a rich dataset on civil war in colombia to assess how dierent income shocks aect con ict we examine changes in the price of agricultural goods which are labor intensive and natural resources which are capital intensive we focus on coee and oil the two largest exports we nd that a sharp fall in coee prices in the 1990s increased violence dierentially in regions growing more coee by lower ing wages and the opportunity cost of joining armed groups in contrast a rise in oil prices increased violence dierentially in the oil region by in creasing municipal revenue siphoned through rapacity this pattern holds in several other agricultural and natural resource sectors providing robust evidence that price shocks aect con ict in opposite directions depending on the factor intensity of the commodity

mexico and the brady plan mexico has throughout the 1980s been centre stage in the debates and events shaping the sovereign debt problem caught between a sudden collapse of its terms of trade and rising world interest rates mexico suspended debt service payments in august 1982 and ushered in what has since become known as the debt crisis in the following years lending to ldcs dried up and debtor countries were increasingly forced to run high trade surpluses to effect ever growing transfers from poor back to rich countries in the face of falling growth rates and rising inflation in the high debt countries then secretary of the treasury baker proposed the baker plan in return for economic reforms high debt countries would get new access to medium term new loans in addition to rolling over of amortization of old loans new loans had to come both from commercial creditors and the official lending institutions with access to capital markets restored the economic reforms would it was hoped allow the debtors to grow out of debt but experience in the high debt countries showed that the original hopes of the proponents of the baker plan went unfulfilled net transfers out of the borrowing countries went up rather than down as

economic growth income distribution and climate change we present a model based on keynesian aggregate demand and labor productivity growth to study how climate damage affects the long run evolution of the economy climate change induced by greenhouse gas lowers profitability reducing investment and cutting output in the short and long runs short run employment falls due to deficient demand in the long run productivity growth is slower lowering potential income levels climate policy can increase incomes and employment in the short and long runs while a continuation of business as usual leads to a dystopian income distribution with affluence for few and high levels of unemployment for the rest

an integrated approach to climate change income distribution employment and economic growth a demand driven growth model involving capital accumulation and the dynamics of greenhouse gas ghg concentration is set up to examine macroeconomic issues raised by global warming e g effects on output and employment of rising levels of ghg offsets by mitigation relationships among energy use and labor productivity income distribution and growth the economic significance of the jevons and other paradoxes sustainable consumption and possible reductions in employment and sources of instability and cyclicality implicit in the two dimensional dynamical system the emphasis is on the combination of biophysical limits and post keynesian growth theory and the qualitative patterns of system adjustment and the dynamics that emerge

long run welfare under externalities in consumption leisure and production a case for happy degrowth vs unhappy growth in this paper we contribute to the debate on the relationship between growth and well being by examining an endogenous growth model where we allow for externalities in consumption leisure and production we analyze three regimes a decentralized economy where each household makes isolated choices without considering their external effects a planned economy where a myopic planner fails to recognize both leisure and consumption externalities but recognizes production externalities and a planned economy with a fully informed planner we first compare the balanced growth paths under the three regimes and then we numerically investigate the transition to the optimal balanced growth path we provide a number of findings first in a decentralized economy growth or labor or both are greater than in the regime with a fully informed planner and hence are sub optimal from a welfare standpoint second a myopic intervention which overlooks consumption and leisure externalities leads to more growth and labor than in both the decentralized and the fully informed regime third we provide a case for happy degrowth a transition to the optimal balanced growth path that is associated with downscaling of production a reduction in private consumption and an ongoing increase in leisure and well being

the neoclassical trojan horse of steady state economics the vision of a steady state economy elaborated by herman daly describes an economy that uses materials and energy within the regenerative and assimilative limits of the planet s ecosystems sustainable scale just distribution and efficient allocation are its constitutive theoretical goals this paper is a critique of the theoretical foundations of steady state economics it argues that steady state economics consists in an attempt to squeeze neoclassical economics into a biophysical and ethical corset as a result many fundamental flaws and criticisms of neoclassical economics remain as a consequence steady state economics does not lead to a radical departure from or improvement upon neoclassical theory but rather to fundamental internal inconsistencies between the old economics paradigm and new progressive ecological economic thinking contradictions appear at various levels ranging from ontology and methodology to theory and values as daly has pioneered the foundations of ecological economics with his thinking these ambiguities are not only problematic for steady state economics but ecological economics as a field more generally the paper concludes that ecological economics has to let go of neoclassical foundations as they contradict its core values and ambitions a new and consistent theory of political economy of the environment along heterodox lines is needed

alternative designs for tariffs on embodied carbon a global cost effectiveness analysis in the absence of effective world wide cooperation to curb global warming import tariffs on embodied carbon have been proposed as a potential supplement to unilateral emissions pricing we consider alternative designs for such tariffs and analyze their effects on global welfare within a multi region multi sector computable general equilibrium cge model of global trade and energy our analysis suggests that the most cost efficient policy could be region specific tariffs on all products based on direct plus electricity emissions in the end however the potential cost savings through carbon tariffs must be weighed against the administrative costs as well as legal issues and political considerations

ecological macroeconomic models assessing current developments our society faces a dilemma while continued economic growth is ecologically unsustainable low or negative rates of economic growth are accompanied by adverse social impacts hence there is a need for macroeconomic tools that can help identify socially sustainable post growth pathways the emerging field of ecological macroeconomics aims to address this need and features a number of new macroeconomic modelling approaches this article provides 1 a review of modelling developments in ecological macroeconomics based on the literature and interviews with researchers and 2 an analysis of how the different models incorporate policy themes from the post growth literature twenty two ecological macroeconomic models were analysed and compared to eight policy themes it was found that environmental interactions and the monetary system were treated most comprehensively themes of income inequality work patterns indicators of well being and disaggregated production were addressed with less detail while alternative business models and cross scale interactions were hardly addressed overall the combination of input output analysis with stock flow consistent modelling was identified as a promising avenue for developing macroeconomic models for a post growth economy however due to the wide interpretation of what the economy entails future research will benefit from employing a range of approaches

the effect of prenatal stress on cooperation evidence from violent conflict in uganda abstract are preferences endogenously determined in the womb we play a public goods game with ugandan children born during a conflict characterised by high civilian victimisation children whose caregivers suffer from post traumatic stress disorder are more likely to free ride in the game genetic and environmental factors alone do not explain the relationship but children s 2d 4d digit ratio a marker of fetal hormone exposure associated with epigenetic effects of maternal distress does our findings extend the fetal origins literature to the domain of preferences by reducing next generation s taste for cooperation conflict may have father reaching economic consequences than previously thought

mexico stabilization debt and growth mexico rudiger dornbusch mexico today is at a crossroads as the de la madrid presidency which has been dominated by the debt crisis comes to an end a number of major policy difficulties remain inflation is still a problem and the continuation of stagnation in a country where the population grows by 3 a year is clearly unsustainable the outlook for inflation is dependent on the government s ability to keep its budget under control the stabilization programme has been quite successful in this respect but the cost in terms of foregone growth is staggering the issue here is how to collect the disinflation benefits of policy restraint analysing the peculiar process of rapid inflation both in mexico and elsewhere the author calls for an incomes policy as for growth it is closely linked to the external situation mexico which triggered the debt crisis in 1982 has made remarkable progress in achieving a non interest current account surplus yet its external debt remains huge and requires a continuation of net transfers abroad the experience though is that debt service comes at the expense of productive investment and growth the author proposes to escape from the unacceptable choice between debt service and growth by adopting what he calls interest rescheduling a debt equity swap applied to interest payments rather than to the principal

violence and birth outcomes evidence from homicides in brazil abstract this paper uses microdata from brazilian vital statistics on births and deaths between 2000 and 2010 to estimate the impact of in utero exposure to local violence measured by homicide rates on birth outcomes the estimates show that exposure to violence during the first trimester of pregnancy leads to a small but precisely estimated increase in the risk of low birthweight and prematurity effects are found both in small municipalities where homicides are rare and in large municipalities where violence is endemic and are particularly pronounced among children of poorly educated mothers implying that violence compounds the disadvantage that these children already suffer as a result of their households lower socioeconomic status

two crises inflationary inertia and credibility this paper provides a comparative analysis of the mexican currency crisis of 1994 and the chilean crisis of 1982 to assess to what extent exchange rate based stabilisation programmes are successful in reducing or even eliminating inflationary inertia the paper provides a brief overview of the chilean and mexican reform and stabilisation programmes a theoretical model that emphasises the role of credibility is developed to analyse the effects of exchange rate based stabilisation programmes on inflationary inertia according to the model less than credible stabilisations will not eliminate inertia and will generate major real exchange rate overvaluation detailed data are used to test the hypothesis

the costs of low birth weight birth weight has emerged as the leading indicator of infant health and welfare and the central focus of infant health policy this is because low birth weight lbw infants experience severe health and developmental difficulties that can impose enormous costs on society but would the prevention of lbw generate equally sizable cost savings and health improvements estimates of the return to lbwprevention from cross sectional associations may be biased by omitted variables that cannot be influenced by policy such as genetic factors to address this we compare the hospital costs health at birth and infant mortality rates between heavier and lighter infants from all twin pairs born in the united states we also examine the effect of maternal smoking during pregnancy the leading risk factor for lbw in the united states on health among singleton births after controlling for detailed background characteristics both analyses imply substantially smaller effects of lbw than previously thought suggesting two possibilities 1 existing estimates overstate the true costs and consequences of lbw by at least a factor of four and by as much as a factor of 20 or 2 different lbw preventing interventions have different health and cost consequences implying that policy efforts that presume a single return to reducing lbw will necessarily be suboptimal

trade and the greenhouse gas emissions from international freight transport we collect extensive data on worldwide trade by transportation mode and use this to provide detailed comparisons of the greenhouse gas emissions associated with output versus international transportation of traded goods international transport is responsible for 33 percent of world wide trade related emissions and over 75 percent of emissions for major manufacturing categories including transport dramatically changes the ranking of countries by emissions per dollar of trade we systematically investigate whether trade inclusive of transport can lower emissions in one quarter of cases the difference in output emissions is more than enough to compensate for the emissions cost of transport finally we examine how likely patterns of global trade growth will affect modal use and emissions full liberalization of tariffs and gdp growth concentrated in china and india lead to transport emissions growing much faster than the value of trade due to trade shifting toward distant trading partners

carbon footprint taxes we analyze whether a carbon consumption tax is logistically feasible we consider a carbon footprint tax cft which would be modeled after a credit method value added tax the basis for the tax would be a product s carbon footprint which includes all of the emissions released during production of the good and its inputs as well as any greenhouse gases latent in the product our analysis suggests that a pure cft requiring the calculation of the carbon footprint of every individual product may be prohibitively costly however a hybrid cft seems economically feasible the hybrid cft would give firms the option to either calculate the carbon footprint of their outputs and have their products taxed based on those footprints or use product class specific default carbon footprints as the tax basis thereby saving on calculation costs because the cft would be levied on all goods consumed domestically the cft would keep domestic firms on an even footing with those producing in countries without active climate policy protecting competitiveness and reducing leakage

environment versus growth a criticism of degrowth and a plea for a growth in recent debates on environmental problems and policies the strategy of degrowth has appeared as an alternative to the paradigm of economic growth this new notion is critically evaluated by considering five common interpretations of it one conclusion is that these multiple interpretations make it an ambiguous and rather confusing concept another is that degrowth may not be an effective let alone an efficient strategy to reduce environmental pressure it is subsequently argued that a growth i e being indifferent about growth is a more logical social aim to substitute for the current goal of economic growth given that gdp per capita is a very imperfect indicator of social welfare in addition focusing ex ante on public policy is considered to be a strategy which ultimately is more likely to obtain the necessary democratic political support than an ex ante explicit degrowth strategy in line with this a policy package is proposed which consists of six elements some of which relate to concerns raised by degrowth supporters

economic crisis adjustment and living standards in mexico 1982 85 abstract this paper presents an estimate of the impact of economic crisis and adjustment on the living standards of the mexican population between 1982 and 1985 the analysis is based on information on wage and nonwage incomes unemployment functional income distribution changes in public expenditures and social indicators the specific questions addressed are what happened to agricultural and nonagricultural wage and nonwage incomes how did unemployment and the composition of employment change what was the impact of fiscal cuts on social expenditures and food subsidies were social services affected by declining resources did social indicators worsen in addition households strategies in response to declining incomes are briefly discussed finally conjectures are made regarding which population groups were hurt most by the crisis the results indicate that the crisis and adjustment process left mexico with a relatively impoverished middle class and with rising poverty

large external debt and slow domestic growth a theoretical analysis abstract this paper analyzes the optimal rescheduling strategy of lenders whose claims on a country show a discount on the secondary markets the paper shows that lenders should proceed as follows they should split the debt into two components a performing and a nonperforming part they should act as if the debt amounted to the performing part and scale down how much money the borrower should service on that part only as a result it is shown that the efficient servicing of the debt crowds in investment the paper relates this result to the debt overhang argument according to which too large a nominal claim may reduce investment and the market value of the debt

mexico s investment collapse debt or oil abstract this paper tests three explanations for mexico s investment collapse in the early 1980s the oil price decline the termination of capital inflows and debt overhang uncertainty effects using previously ignored investment data on private sector industries the data consistently point to the importance of the rise in the relative price of investment goods driven in large part by falling world oil prices but the data also allow a role for the termination of capital inflows however after controlling for these effects the paper finds little evidence for debt overhang effects heightened uncertainty or other commonly cited explanations in the literature jel f34

from the cradle to the labor market the effect of birth weight on adult outcomes lower birth weight babies have worse outcomes both short run in terms of one year mortality rates and longer run in terms of educational attainment and earnings however recent research has called into question whether birth weight itself is important or whether it simply reflects other hard to measure characteristics by applying within twin techniques using an unusually rich dataset from norway we examine the effects of birth weight on both short run and long run outcomes for the same cohorts we find that birth weight does matter despite short run twin fixed effects estimates that are much smaller than ols estimates the effects on longer run outcomes such as adult height iq earnings and education are significant and similar in magnitude to ols estimates

superfund cleanups and infant health in 1980 outcry over the health effects of toxic waste in love canal new york resulted in the comprehensive environmental response compensation and liability act which became known as superfund superfund was intended to provide a mechanism for conducting remedial clean ups at the most dangerous hazardous waste sites over the years it became the largest and most expensive federal program to deal with toxic waste in the us given the substantial cost and slow rate of clean up there is considerable debate on whether it is in the public interest to continue the program in its current form epa 2006 while the costs of the programs are clear its benefits are not well understood indeed the policy is controversial in part because there is a paucity of reliable information on the program s benefits some previous studies find poorer birth outcomes near a site while others do not see martine vrijheid 2000 however evidence of a correlation between proximity to a site and poor birth outcomes does not necessarily represent a causal effect because populations living near hazardous waste sites are typically different from the general population and their health outcomes are likely to differ even in the absence of negative health effects from exposure for example michael greenstone and justin gallagher 2008 found that residents of areas near hazardous waste sites are more likely to be poor and have lower levels of education than others our project is the first to examine the effect of site cleanups on infant health rather than simply focusing on proximity to a site we focus on single births that occurred within 5km of a superfund site between 1989 and 2003 in five large states florida michigan new jersey pennsylvania and texas the basis of our difference in differences approach is to compare changes in birth outcomes before and after a site s clean up among births to mothers who live within 2 000 meters of the site and among those who live between 2 000 and 5 000 meters away our approach is made feasible by access to confidential vital statistics data that includes the exact street address of the mother s residence our large sample gives us statistical power to detect small effects

degrowth and the supply of money in an energy scarce world abstract degrowth is going to happen whether governments want it or not because as fossil fuels run out incomes will shrink along with the energy supply this degrowth can either be unplanned and catastrophic or managed and relatively benign this paper argues that three tools are essential to avoid degrowth becoming a catastrophic collapse these are i a system to share the benefits from using increasingly scarce fossil fuels ii new ways of financing businesses and iii the introduction of debt free regional and local currencies

monetary and exchange rate arrangements for nafta abstract this paper considers the extent to which the north american free trade area nafta meets the criteria for a common currency area nafta is compared with the ec a regional grouping for which initial plans for a monetary union are already in place most of the anticipated benefits from a monetary union in the ec apply with equal force to nafta however because the underlying disturbances are more diverse across members of nafta the costs of abandoning the exchange rate instrument are likely to be higher this is particularly true when nafta is compared to the ec s continental core

unintended consequences of sanctions for human rights conflict minerals and infant mortality abstractare victims of human rights abuses better off with or without economic sanctions targeted at their perpetrators we study this question in the context of a us human rights policy the conflict minerals section of the 2010 dodd frank act by discouraging companies from sourcing tin tungsten and tantalum from the eastern democratic republic of the congo the policy has acted as a de facto boycott on mineral purchases that may finance warlords and armed militias we estimate the policy s impact on the mortality of children born before 2013 and find that it increased the probability of infant deaths in villages near the policy targeted mines by at least 143 percent we find suggestive evidence that the legislation induced boycott did so by reducing mothers consumption of infant health care goods and services

the economics of degrowth economic degrowth is ecologically desirable and possibly inevitable but under what conditions can it become socially sustainable how can we have full employment and economic stability without growth what will happen to public spending and to public debt how would production be organised in a degrowing economy and under what plausible socio political conditions could such grand changes happen standard economic theories and models ignore these questions for them economic growth is an axiomatic necessity this article reviews recent contributions in the economics of degrowth and identifies research avenues for ecological economists

in defence of degrowth abstract this article defends the proposal of sustainable degrowth a starting premise is that resource and co2 limits render further growth of the economy unsustainable if degrowth is inevitable the question is how it can become socially sustainable i e a prosperous and stable rather than a catastrophic descent pricing mechanisms alone are unlikely to secure smooth adaptation a full ensemble of environmental and redistributive policies is required including among others policies for a basic income reduction of working hours environmental and consumption taxes and controls on advertising policies like these that threaten to harm the economy are less and less likely to be implemented within existing market economies whose basic institutions financial property political and redistributive depend on and mandate continuous economic growth an intertwined cultural and political change is needed that will embrace degrowth as a positive social development and reform those institutions that make growth an imperative sustainable degrowth is therefore not just a structuring concept it is a radical political project that offers a new story and a rallying slogan for a social coalition built around the aspiration to construct a society that lives better with less

identifying the effect of unemployment on crime abstract in this paper we analyze the relationship between unemployment and crime using u s state data we estimate the effect of unemployment on the rates of seven felony offenses we control extensively for state level demographic and economic factors and estimate specifications that include state specific time trends state effects and year effects in addition we use prime defense contracts and a state specific measure of exposure to oil shocks as instruments for unemployment rates we find significantly positive effects of unemployment on property crime rates that are stable across model specifications our estimates suggest that a substantial portion of the decline in property crime rates during the 1990s is attributable to the decline in the unemployment rate the evidence for violent crime is considerably weaker however a closer analysis of the violent crime of rape yields some evidence that the employment prospects of males are weakly related to state rape rates

the erosion of colonial trade linkages after independence high trade between countries with colonial ties may be explained by government policies that establish preferential access or as a consequence of networks formed through social interactions using bilateral trade data from 1948 to 2003 we examine the eect of independence on post colonial trade the severing of formal colonial relations can lead to an immediate reduction in trade as preferential access is eliminated as well as a gradual reduction corresponding to the deterioration of trading networks our results reveal that independence reduces colonial trade with its colonizer metropole the reduction cumulates over a 30 year period and the disruption is particularly severe for hostile separations we also find that overall colonial trade falls subsequent to independence but to a lesser extent than trade with the metropole

degrowth taking stock and reviewing an emerging academic paradigm degrowth has evolved within a decade from an activist movement into a multi disciplinary academic paradigm however an overview taking stock of the peer refereed degrowth literature is yet missing here we review 91 articles that were published between 2006 and 2015 we find that the academic degrowth discourse occupies a small but expanding niche at the intersection of social and applied environmental sciences the discourse is shaped by authors from high income mainly mediterranean countries until 2012 articles largely constitute conceptual essays endorsed by normative claims more recently degrowth has branched out into modelling empirical assessments and the study of concrete implementations authors tend to agree in that economic growth cannot be sustained ad infinitum on a resource constraint planet and that degrowth requires far reaching societal change whether degrowth should be considered as a collectively consented choice or an environmentally imposed inevitability constitutes a major debate among degrowth thinkers we argue that the academic discourse could benefit from rigid hypotheses testing through input output modelling material flow analysis life cycle assessments or social surveys by analyzing the potentials for non market value creation and identifying concrete well being benefits the degrowth discourse could receive wider public support and contribute to a paradigmatic change in the social sciences

can degrowth overcome the leakage problem of unilateral climate policy abstract unilateral climate policy suffers from carbon leakage i e the partial offset of the initial emission reduction by increases in other countries different than most typically discussed climate policies degrowth not only aims at reducing the fossil fuel use in an economy but rather besides other social and political goals at a reduction of all factor inputs which may lead to different leakage implications we conduct the first investigation of degrowth in a multi country setting in order to i compare the leakage effects of national pure emission reduction policies to degrowth scenarios ii identify underlying channels by decomposing the implied emission changes into scale composition and technique effects and iii investigate which country characteristics determine degrowth s relative effectiveness to overcome the leakage problem using a structural gravity model we find that degrowth indeed significantly reduces leakage by keeping the sectoral composition of the country more stable and reducing uncommitted countries incentives to shift towards more energy intensive production techniques the higher effectiveness of degrowth in reducing carbon emissions is most pronounced for small and trade open economies with comparatively clean production technologies

a stock flow fund ecological macroeconomic model this paper develops a stock flow fund ecological macroeconomic model that combines the stock flow consistent approach of godley and lavoie with the flow fund model of georgescu roegen the model has the following key features first monetary and physical stocks and flows are explicitly formalised taking into account the accounting principles and the laws of thermodynamics second georgescu roegen s distinction between stock flow and fund service resources is adopted third output is demand determined but supply constraints might arise either due to environmental damages or due to the exhaustion of natural resources fourth climate change influences directly the components of aggregate demand fifth finance affects macroeconomic activity and the materialisation of investment plans that determine ecological efficiency the model is calibrated using global data simulations are conducted to investigate the trajectories of key environmental macroeconomic and financial variables under i different assumptions about the sensitivity of economic activity to the leverage ratio of firms and ii different types of green finance policies

unilateral co2 reductions and carbon leakage the consequences of international trade in oil and basic materials a recursively dynamic general equilibrium model featuring six world regions with trade in energy and non energy goods is used to simulate the period from 1990 through 2100 in 10 year intervals the simulations explore the effect of unilateral action by the oecd to curb global co2 emissions unilateral cuts create incentives for free riding by non participating regions so that global emissions are reduced by less than the amount that the oecd cuts back its regional emissions carbon leakage occurs through two channels first basic materials production increases in unconstrained regions resulting in increased carbon intensity of gdp second reductions in oecd oil imports cause the world oil price to fall leading to an increased energy intensity in the non participant regions in this paper we use a general equilibrium model to assess the extent to which these two mechanisms reduce the effectiveness of oecd reductions in curbing global co2 concentrations

kyoto and carbon leakage an empirical analysis of the carbon content of bilateral trade abstract has the kyoto protocol induced carbon leakage we conduct the first empirical ex post evaluation of the protocol we derive a theoretical gravity equation for the carbon dioxide content of trade which accounts for intermediate inputs both domestic and imported the structure of our new panel database of the carbon content of sectoral bilateral trade flows allows controlling for the endogenous selection of countries into the kyoto protocol binding commitments under kyoto have increased committed countries embodied carbon imports from noncommitted countries by around 8 and the emission intensity of their imports by about 3 hence kyoto has indeed led to leakage

climate change policy market structure and carbon leakage abstract the 1997 kyoto protocol on climate change obliges the industrialized countries to initiate the international effort of abating anthropogenic greenhouse gas ghg emissions if such an initiative is to be taken the associated competitive effects may lead to significant relocation of developed countries energy intensive production this paper examines this issue i adopt an oligopolistic structure combined with increasing returns to scale production technologies to represent the strategic interaction among the firms producing energy intensive products this representation is then embedded within a multi regional computable general equilibrium model which in turn is used for quantifying these relocational effects the results suggest that significant relocation of energy intensive industries away from the oecd may occur depending on the type of market structure with leakage rates as high as 130 in which case ghg control policies in the industrialized countries actually lead to higher global emissions

de growth and welfare in an equilibrium model with heterogeneous consumers this paper studies equilibrium growth and voluntary degrowth allowing for heterogeneous and time varying preferences the approach is based on applying a dynamic equilibrium model with externalities in production consumption and leisure preference heterogeneity regarding status competition is modeled by asymmetric consumption externality parameters whereas heterogeneity regarding voluntary simplicity is incorporated by allowing for agent specific restrictions on maximum consumption equilibrium is studied in terms of a balanced growth path bgp numerical examples suggest that degrowth triggered by voluntary simplicity by a subset of consumers less affected by status competition has a positive effect on the aggregate welfare under externalities in consumption and leisure a reduction in status competition increases the aggregate welfare and reduces the equilibrium growth rate simulations suggest that a time varying equilibrium in the heterogeneous preference model with two consumer classes is well approximated by a constant bgp

debt relief growth and price stability in mexico inspired by the negotiation of the foreign debt of mexico in 1989 this paper provides a framework to show that prior to debt relief an ldc government which is indebted both domestically and externally has an additional incentive not to default on its external obligations however repayment of the external debt is shown to involve a delicate tradeoff between growth and inflation on the one hand the government increases its ability to keep domestic interest rates relatively low thereby promoting investment and growth on the other hand the government worsens the budget deficit problem thereby introducing additional inflationary pressures the way to improve this tradeoff is by negotiating a debt relief operation on the foreign debt

the economic effects of climate change greenhouse gas emissions are fundamental both to the world s energy system and to its food production the production of co2 the predominant gas implicated in climate change is intrinsic to fossil fuel combustion specifically thermal energy is generated by breaking the chemical bonds in the carbohydrates oil coal and natural gas and oxidizing the components to co2 and h2o one cannot have cheap energy without carbon dioxide emissions similarly methane ch4 emissions an important greenhouse gas in its own right are necessary to prevent the build up of hydrogen in anaerobic digestion and decomposition one cannot have beef mutton dairy or rice without methane emissions climate change is the mother of all externalities larger more complex and more uncertain than any other environmental problem the sources of greenhouse gas emissions are more diffuse than any other environmental problem every company every farm every household emits some greenhouse gases the effects are similarly pervasive weather affects agriculture energy use health and many aspects of nature which in turn affects everything and everyone the causes and consequences of climate change are very diverse and those in low income countries who contribute least to climate change are most vulnerable to its effects climate change is also a long term problem some greenhouse gases have an atmospheric life time measured in tens of thousands of years the quantities of emissions involved are enormous in 2000 carbon dioxide emissions alone and excluding land use change were 24 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide tco2

macroeconomic narratives in a world of crises an analysis of stories about solving the system crisis since the financial crisis in 2008 a series of publications on macroeconomic responses to the compound crises of the economy and the environment have emerged under labels such as green new deal green growth and the great transition attempts at offering coherent responses to the crises have been made these responses have in common that they all present a large number of policy proposals for ways in which to solve the current crises and achieve a sustainable economy this article provides a mapping of a selection of such responses and an analysis of their content the analysis combines discourse theory and narrative analysis and investigates discourses by studying the narratives they produce the study thus contributes to the long line of analyses on discourses on sustainable economy empirically by investigating and analysing a number of macroeconomic proposals for solving the system crisis and theoretically by elaborating on the concept of narrative dynamics in relation to persuasive strength in political decision making

the effects of poor neonatal health on children s cognitive development we make use of a new data resource merged birth and school records for all children born in florida from 1992 to 2002 to study the relationship between birth weight and cognitive development using singletons as well as twin and sibling fixed effects models we find that the effects of early health on cognitive development are essentially constant through the school career that these effects are similar across a wide range of family backgrounds and that they are invariant to measures of school quality we conclude that the effects of early health on adult outcomes are therefore set very early

financing vs forgiving a debt overhang abstract this paper examines the tradeoffs facing creditors of a country whose debt is large enough that the country cannot attract voluntary new lending if the country is unable to meet its debt service requirements out of current income the creditors have two choices they can finance the country lending at an expected loss in the hope that the country will eventually be able to repay its debt after all or they can forgive reducing the debt level to one that the country can repay the post 1983 debt strategy of the imf and the us has relied on financing but many current calls for debt reform call for forgiveness instead the paper shows that the choice between financing and forgiveness represents a tradeoff financing gives the creditors an option value if the country turns out to do relatively well creditors will not have written down their claims unnecessarily however the burden of debt distorts the country s incentives since the benefits of good performance go largely to creditors rather than itself the paper also shows that the tradeoff itself can be improved if both financing and forgiveness are made contingent on states of nature that the country cannot affect such as oil prices world interest rates etc

ecological macroeconomics an application to climate change ecological economics has not paid sufficient attention to the macroeconomic level both in terms of theory and modeling yet key topics debated in the field of ecological economics such as sustainable consumption reduction in working time the degrowth debate the energy exergy link and the rebound effect require a holistic and macro perspective while this deficiency has been identified before and keynesian economics has been generally suggested as a potent vehicle to establish economic system s thinking very little concrete theorizing and practical suggestions have been put forward we give further credence to this suggestion and demonstrate the value of tackling key concerns of ecological economics within a keynesian growth framework contextualized by an application to climate change we suggest that policy relevant recommendations need to be based on a consistent view of the macroeconomy we end with laying out key building blocks for a keynesian model framework for an ecological macroeconomics authors abstract

growth degrowth and climate change a scenario analysis article i nfo article history the paper proceeds with a discussion of the interplay of scale and intensity in determining greenhouse gas emissions this is followed by the presentation of several macroeconomic scenarios using lowgrow a simulation model of the canadian economy the scenarios considered are business as usual which is a projection into the future of past trends selective growth in which differential growth rates are applied to parts of the economy according to their direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions and degrowth where the average gdp capita of canadians is reduced towards a level more consistent with a world economy the size of which respects global environmental limits the paper ends with a comparison of the scenarios 2011 published by elsevier b v

inside the war on poverty the impact of food stamps on birth outcomes this paper evaluates the health impacts of a signature initiative of the war on poverty the introduction of the modern food stamp pro gram fsp using variation in the month fsp began operating in each u s county we find that pregnancies exposed to fsp three months prior to birth yielded deliveries with increased birth weight with the largest gains at the lowest birth weights we also find small but statistically insig nificant improvements in neonatal mortality we conclude that the sizable increase in income from fsp improved birth outcomes for both whites and african americans with larger impacts for african american mothers n this paper we evaluate the health consequences of a sizable improvement in the resources available to ameri ca s poorest in particular we examine the impact of the food stamp program fsp which in 2007 provided 34 billion in payments to about 13 million households on infant health our paper makes two distinct contributions first although the goal of the fsp is to increase the nutri tion of the poor few papers have examined its impact on health outcomes second building on work by hoynes and schanzenbach 2009 we argue that the fsp treatment represents an exogenous increase in income for the poor our analysis therefore represents a causal estimate of the impact of income on health an important topic with little convincing evidence due to concerns about endogeneity and reverse causality currie 2009 we use the natural experiment afforded by the nation wide rollout of the modern fsp during the 1960s and early 1970s our identification strategy uses the sharp timing of the county by county rollout of the fsp which was initially constrained by congressional funding authorizations and ultimately became available in all counties by 1975 speci fically we use information on the month the fsp began operating in each of the roughly 3 100 u s counties and examine the impact of the fsp rollout on mean birth weight low birth weight gestation and neonatal mortality throughout the history of the fsp the program para meters have been set by the u s department of agriculture usda and are uniform across states in the absence of the state level variation often leveraged by economists to eval uate transfer programs previous fsp research has typically resorted to strong assumptions as to the comparability of fsp participants and eligible nonparticipants currie 2003 not surprisingly the literature is far from settled as to what casual impact if any the fsp has on nutrition and health hoynes and schanzenbach 2009 use this county rollout to examine the impact of the fsp on food consumption using the psid they found that the introduction of the fsp increased total food spending and decreased out of pocket food spending importantly consistent with the predictions of canonical microeconomic theory the magnitude of the increase in food expenditures was similar to an equivalent sized income transfer implying that most recipient house holds were inframarginal that is they would spend more on the subsidized good than the face value of the in kind transfer as one of the largest antipoverty programs in the united states comparable in cost to the earned income tax credit eitc and substantially larger than temporary assistance to needy families tanf understanding fsp effects is valuable both in its own right and for what it reveals about the relationship between income and health 1

does slow growth lead to rising inequality some theoretical reflections and numerical simulations this paper explores the hypothesis most notably made by french economist thomas piketty that slow growth rates lead to rising inequality if true this hypothesis would pose serious challenges to achieving prosperity without growth or meeting the ambitions of those who call for an intentional slowing down of growth on ecological grounds it would also create problems of social justice in the context of a secular stagnation the paper describes a closed demand driven stock flow consistent model of savings inequality and growth in a macroeconomic framework sigma with exogenous growth and savings rates sigma is used to examine the evolution of inequality in the context of declining economic growth contrary to the general hypothesis we find that inequality does not necessarily increase as growth slows down in fact there are certain conditions under which inequality can be reduced significantly or even eliminated entirely as growth declines the paper discusses the implications of this finding for questions of employment government fiscal policy and the politics of de growth

a study of degrowth paths based on the von neumann equilibrium model abstract this paper revisits the von neumann equilibrium model from a degrowth perspective degrowth can be either planned or autonomous based on voluntary simplicity vs characterized by voluntary constraints on the private consumptions any share of the working population is allowed to limit their private consumptions or ecological footprint degrowth means a lower economic growth rate as well as reductions in the usage of materials and fossil energy however when the economy cannot fit within the biophysical boundary despite such reductions degrowth can also mean a deliberate transition towards lesser and cleaner production of a smaller number of goods taking ecological boundaries into consideration may thus switch the direction of an economy from growth to degrowth degrowth is consistent with economic equilibrium in the dynamic input output model degrowth equilibrium results when a critical mass of the population prioritizes diminishing the ecological deficit over increasing the output levels green growth can take place during degrowth while the economy gradually shrinks the interest profit rate in macroeconomic equilibrium is negative due to the conservation target excessive consumption has negative value to vs type agents degrowing private consumptions implies less work more leisure and better quality of the environment improving social welfare degrowth can be advanced by adopting a more cooperative production system or by imposing high ecological taxes the equilibrium model yields an argument for basic income as a means of supporting welfare during degrowth and of compensating for unpaid work the open economy version of the model shows reduced scope for intra industry trade between similar countries

does credit create a growth imperative a quasi stationary economy with interest bearing debt abstract this paper addresses the question of whether a capitalist economy can ever sustain a stationary or non growing state or whether as often claimed capitalism has an inherent growth imperative arising from the charging of interest on debt we outline the development of a dedicated system dynamics macro economic model for describing financial assets and liabilities in a stock flow consistent framework falstaff and use this model to explore the potential for stationary state outcomes in an economy with balanced trade credit creation by banks and private equity contrary to claims in the literature we find that neither credit creation nor the charging of interest on debt creates a growth imperative in and of themselves this finding remains true even when capital adequacy and liquidity requirements are imposed on banks we test the robustness of our results in the face of random variations and one off shocks we show further that it is possible to move from a growth path towards a stationary state without either crashing the economy or dismantling the system nonetheless there remain several good reasons to support the reform of the monetary system our model also supports critiques of austerity and underlines the value of countercyclical spending by government