specialisation versus diversification a simple model for tourist cities abstract by developing a simple general equilibrium structure this paper compares the welfare effects of tourism specialisation and economic diversification in tourist cities we discovered that tourist cities with limited carrying capacity easily suffer from side effects particularly dutch disease when faced with rapid tourism growth therefore such cities should actively use revenue that is generated from the booming tourism sector to pursue economic diversification for the sake of sustainable urban development

adjusting input output models for capacity utilization in service industries abstract the input output i o models assume the stability of economic ratios and regional multipliers over the evaluation period for manufacturing sectors constant multipliers within a short term period may present a reasonable picture of the real world production function tourism industry however is composed of a variety of services in which total output and factor inputs are strongly influenced by capacity utilization cu a conceptual model is proposed in this paper which purports that shifts in cu for perishable services will lead to economies of scale in inputs price changes in the final output capacity constraint on domestic supply and substitution between input factors especially between capital and labor these factors simultaneously modify i o ratios and multipliers traditional i o analysis which assumes constant economic ratios and multipliers will therefore lead to biases in tourism impact estimates especially to value added components as it does not reflect the changing costs of operation in response to shifting supply and demand

time series forecasts of international travel demand for australia abstract this paper analyses stationary and non stationary international tourism time series data by formally testing for the presence of unit roots and seasonal unit roots prior to estimation model selection and forecasting various box jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average arima models are estimated over the period 1975 1 1989 4 for tourist arrivals to australia from hong kong malaysia and singapore the mean absolute percentage error and root mean squared error rmse are used as measures of forecast accuracy as the best fitting arima model is found to have the lowest rmse this model is used to obtain post sample forecasts tourist arrivals data for 1990 1 1996 4 are compared with the forecast performance of the arima model for each origin market the fitted arima model forecasts tourist arrivals from singapore for the period 1990 1 1996 4 very well although the arima model outperforms the seasonal arima models for hong kong and malaysia the forecasts of tourist arrivals are not as accurate as in the case of singapore

specific and general taxation of tourism activities evidence from spain abstract this article mainly discusses whether the introduction or increase of tourism taxation should be addressed through specific or general indirect taxation with this aim the paper describes the concept of tourism taxes and presents the several reasons that back their use the paper also offers some numerical exercises comparing the effects of specific and general tourism taxation in spain a developed country with a sizeable tourism industry the article suggests that both specific and general taxes on tourism would be able to yield improvements in terms of revenues and internalization of costs without hampering the economy yet in comparative terms general indirect taxes may be a more feasible equitable and neutral way to obtain tax revenues from tourism activities

forecasting international tourist flows to australia a comparison between the direct and indirect methods this paper compares between the use of direct and indirect forecasting of international tourist flows to australia the indirect method is applicable when time series is a contemporaneous aggregate of others which is often the case for tourist flows time series in this case forecasts are generated by aggregating those of the component variables of aggregation an alternative is the direct method whereby forecasts are generated directly from the aggregated variable this paper uses seasonal arima models regression based models and harvey s structural time series models to compare the accuracy of the two forecasting methods we find evidence strongly in favour of the indirect method using monthly time series for international tourist arrivals to australia

analysis of the financial performance in the slovenian tourism economy this paper aims to analyze the difference in financial performance of the different tourism economy activities in slovenia the analysis was performed for the period 1995 2009 we analyzed the financial indicators on the basis of the official company accounts data the nominal financial data are deflated by the statistical deflator for value of inflation in order to obtain real values of financial indicators over the analyzed years we included financial indicators that are related to the business performance of enterprises in the slovenian tourism economy the research hypothesis was tested using quantitative analysis employing nonparametric kruskal wallis test and wilcoxon mann whitney test of the secondary data used the empirical analysis confirmed that there are significant differences in financial performance among different tourism economy activities in slovenia

demand for rural tourism the effects of quality and information the development of rural tourism is regarded as a promising diversification strategy especially for lagging and mountainous areas of the european union research concerning the demand and or supply of rural tourism services has been limited within the agricultural economics domain despite the significance attached to rural tourism by various rural development policy measures and initiatives the article examines the expenditure behavior of rural tourists within a framework of demand for composite heterogeneous goods the proposed framework captures the quality of the tourism experience as the commodity s unit value a quantifiable economic variable examines its effects on expenditures and allows for the estimation of elasticity in prices regarding expenditure and quantity empirical analysis is facilitated by a survey recording the expenditure behavior of 465 tourists in two rural and lagging areas of greece the quality of the tourism experience is significantly and positively affected by the income the source from which information about the trip is retrieved internet newspapers as well as general press and special travel press and by the amount of information sought by the consumer prior to the trip in turn the quality of the tourism experience is the major endogenous factor that positively influences expenditures for rural tourism further research is needed before evidence provided in this work can be used to draw policy conclusions and recommendations

impacts of crisis events on international tourism demand in thailand in thai this study assesses the impacts of nine major crisis events during 2001 2009 on the number of foreign tourists in thailand the sarima with intervention models and x 12 arima are applied the results show that each crisis had a different effect on the number of tourists depending on the duration of situation type of crisis and country of origin the disease outbreaks had a greater impact than the other crises but the degree of impact was likely to decrease should a similar outbreak occurs in contrast the impact from the internal political chaos was relatively small when it occurred for the first time but would be greater if it recurred the indian ocean tsunami of 2004 had a huge impact but recovery was faster than that of other crises the 9 11 event made a minimal impact on thai tourism based on the results it is suggested that solving the internal politics should be the first priority if government aims to enhance thailand s tourism industry in addition the measures used for solving crises should be designed to fit each foreign tourist markets diverse responsiveness

reconsidering the estimation of the economic impact of cultural tourism the assessment of the economic benefits of cultural events is necessary to inform decision making in many cases cultural events are designed to attract tourists and the injection of tourist spending to a local economy is one of the drivers for hosting events from an economic perspective the impact of staging an event can be measured using either an expenditure multiplier or a cost benefit analysis cba approach one of the difficulties with cba is the data required to estimate the relevant benefit function this paper addresses this limitation by illustrating how benefit functions can be parameterised with minimal data thereby enhancing the possibility of using cba our approach is illustrated with a case study of an exhibition held by a regional community in australia the case study compares economic impact assessments and finds using benefit estimates as we propose provides a useful method of estimating benefits with limited data

modeling and forecasting tourism demand for arrivals with stochastic nonstationary seasonality and intervention abstract this paper presents the use of time series sarima and marima with interventions in forecasting tourism demand using ten arrival series for hong kong augmented dickey fuller tests indicated that all the series were seasonal nonstationary significant interventions such as relaxation of the issuance of out bound visitors visas the asian financial crisis the handover and the bird flu epidemic were all empirically identified with significant test results and expected signs the forecasts obtained using models that capture stochastic nonstationary seasonality and interventions sarima and marima with intervention analysis are compared with other eight time series models and were found to have the highest accuracy

is subsidising tourism firms an effective use of public funds abstract this study assesses the impact of state aid on firms in the tourism sector by implementing an accurate micro econometric evaluation of their causal effect analyses consider subsidies allocated by the main regional policy in italy the law 488 1992 during the period 1999 2003 a matching difference in difference mdid estimator is applied considering the presence of selection on observable and non observable factors effects on the tourism sector are compared with those in the manufacturing industry the impacts with respect to different types of tourism destinations where tourism firms operate are also evaluated the results show higher output and employment growth but lower labour productivity dynamics in subsidised firms relative to non subsidised ones the impacts are diverse across types of tourism destinations

events in indonesia exploring the limits to formal tourism trends forecasting methods in complex crisis situations the desire to know the future is as old as humanity for the tourism industry the demand for accurate foretelling of the future course of events is a task that consumes considerable energy and is of great significance to investors this paper examines the issue of forecasting by comparing forecasts of inbound tourism made prior to the political and economic crises that engulfed indonesia from 1997 onwards with actual arrival figures the paper finds that current methods of forecasting are not able to cope with unexpected crises and other disasters and that alternative methods need to be examined including scenarios political risk and application of chaos theory the paper outlines a framework for classifying shocks according to a scale of severity probability type of event level of certainty and suggested forecasting tools for each scale of shock

do we underestimate the benefits of cultural competition economic globalization has drawn fresh attention to cultural issues the uruguay round of trade negotiations debated whether there should be a protectionist cultural exception for television and movies as practiced by the french canadians brazilians south koreans and chinese to varying degrees governments around the world subsidize culture in part to favor one national tradition over potential competitors more generally cultural questions are central to broader critiques of trade and globalization cowen 2002 current analyses however have neglected some insights from economics we will suggest that market competition across cultures is desirable and favors relevant notions of diversity an underlying theme is that individuals hold unjustified prejudices or in economic jargon systematically biased beliefs about globalization

evaluating tourism s economic effects new and old approaches abstract techniques such as multiplier analysis and input output analysis are still very commonly used to make estimates of the economic impact of changes in tourism expenditure these techniques have serious limitations and as a result alternative techniques have been developed to address the problems computable general equilibrium cge models are now extensively used especially in australia the uk the us and canada to estimate economic impacts of a wide variety of changes and policies across most sectors cge techniques have been used in the tourism context but so far not extensively economic evaluation in tourism thus fails to achieve best practice the paper presents arguments in support of cge modelling as the preferred technique in analysing the economic impacts of tourism and discusses its potential to drive future research in this area that is more relevant to real world tourism destinations

assessing the importance of international tourism for the turkish economy a social accounting matrix analysis abstract the international tourism sector has grown rapidly in turkey since the 1980s and turkey ranks among the top ten countries in terms of tourist arrivals and receipts previous studies on international tourism in turkey are partial equilibrium studies which emphasized the importance of the sector for foreign exchange earnings employment creation and economic growth the social accounting matrix sam modeling approach is superior to partial equilibrium analysis as it takes into account intersectoral linkages this paper analyzes the contribution of international tourism to the turkish economy using two sams for 1996 and 2002 respectively two analyses are conducted using the sam impact model i sectoral comparison of gdp elasticities and ii sam impact analysis of international tourism on output value added and employment the results show that the gdp elasticity of international tourism is relatively low and the impact of foreign tourist expenditures on domestic production value added gdp and employment in turkey are modest the results imply the possibility of leakage of foreign tourist expenditures out of the economy

forecasting international tourist flows to macau abstract the vector autoregressive var modelling technique is used to forecast tourist flows to macau from eight major origin countries regions over the period 2003 2008 the existing literature shows that the var model is capable of producing accurate medium to long term forecasts and also separate forecasts of the explanatory variables are not required a further justification for using the var technique is that it permits an impulse response analysis to be performed in order to examine the ways in which the demand for macau tourism responds to the shocks in the economic variables within the var system the implications of this analysis are discussed the forecasts generated by the var models suggest that macau will face increasing tourism demand by residents from mainland china since the needs of chinese tourists tend to be different from those from other origin countries regions especially western countries the business sectors in macau need to pay considerable attention to catering for the needs of chinese tourists

predicting u s recessions financial variables as leading indicators this paper examines the out of sample performance of various financial variables as predictors of u s recessions series such as interest rates and spreads stock prices and monetary aggregates are evaluated individually and in comparison with other financial and nonfinancial indicators the analysis focuses on out of sample performance from one to eight quarters ahead results show that stock prices are useful with one to three quarter horizons as are some well known macroeconomic indicators beyond one quarter however the slope of the yield curve emerges as the clear individual choice and typically performs better by itself out of sample than in conjunction with other variables

computable general equilibrium models for development policy analysis in ldcs abstract the use of cge models has gained much popularity among policy analysts in ldcs and there is a fast growing body of literature on this area of economics in this survey the advantages of general equilibrium approach over partial equilibrium approach in analysing a wide range of policy issues are highlighted the evolution of cge modelling is discussed and more than 60 cge applications related to different policy issues in ldcs are surveyed this comprehensive survey shows that the cge models have become quite popular analytical tools among policy analysts in ldcs over the last decade or so the debate in the economic profession regarding the value and appropriateness of using cge models for policy analysis is examined in the final section of this paper some of the criticisms levelled at cge models are discussed and it is argued that despite this criticism such models are capable of providing insight into important policy problems

a tourism demand function for the okanagan bc abstract this study examines the relative importance of the existing determinants of tourism demand in the okanagan because national coefficients cannot be used intercnageable with regional coefficients it is hypothesized that the values of the okanagan demand elasticities are likely to be lower than that of the province and the nation five major markets for okanagan tourism with identified and separate regressions run to determine the relative importance of the determinants of demand for okanagan tourism with respect to these markets empirical results indicate that national coefficient will tend to overestimate the regional coefficient values contrary to the results of other studies for the nation as a whole the exchange rate and travel cost did not seem to be significant determinants of okanagan tourism receipts

a management orientated approach to combination forecasting of tourism demand abstract volatility exponential smoothing regression and naive 2 models are considered singly and in combination in terms of forecasting demand for international tourism these models generate accurate predictions of tourism flows but their prime utility is when combined with other models usually models are combined by means of purely statistical criteria we show that goal programming gp offers an alternative flexible approach to model combination gp offers planners a practical solution to tourism forecasting problems since the method is more adaptable than conventional minimisation of prediction error by permitting practitioners to prioritise a series of management related goals forecasters can focus on longer and short term goals minimising forecast under and over estimation and or concentrate on prediction errors in tourism flows at various times of the year

the economic consequences of community support for tourism a case study of a heritage fish hatchery abstract although tourist attractions are the drivers of tourism to many communities and local citizens support of these attractions is vital to their viability the economic outcomes of such support have never been assessed to help fill this information void the authors examined the unusual case of a historical attraction that was closed in 1983 by the federal government agency operating it but resurrected the following year by local citizens who considered it indispensable to their town s identity cultural heritage and tourist appeal since the attraction would not exist but for this intervention the current value of the community s resuscitation of it in 1984 was inferred from the economic impacts it currently generated in 2007 these were estimated to be about us 1 6 million in direct attraction related expenditures in the town us 2 1 million in business revenues us 629 000 in personal income us 141 000 in local and state taxes and fees and 27 new jobs

leading indicator tourism forecasts leading indicators have been widely used in general business forecasting situations but only rarely in a tourism context in this study leading indicator transfer function tf models are developed to generate forecasts of international tourism demand from the uk to six major destinations the out of sample forecasting accuracy is compared with the accuracy of forecasts generated by univariate arima and error correction models ecms the inclusion of a causal input within an arima time series framework tf model does not result in an improvement in forecasting performance the time series models outperform the ecm for short term forecasting but the ecm generates more accurate longer term forecasts

regional economic impacts of tourism the case of denmark zhang j madsen b and jensen butler c 2007 regional economic impacts of tourism the case of denmark regional studies 41 839 853 the danish interregional general equilibrium model line is presented together with its tourism submodel the model is used to analyse the importance of tourism in regional economies and to decompose regional tourism multipliers the difference between direct and derived effects is examined and by using the model the factors that determine the size of the direct effects and derived effects are identified the analysis is applied to danish regions which are divided into urban and rural regions in general the results show that tourism multipliers are larger in urban than in rural areas factors such as interregional trade commuting and shopping leakage have to be taken into consideration when evaluating the derived effects when the leakage is large the tourism multiplier tends to be small the paper also draws attention to the difference between absolute and relative

real time forecasting regional tourism with business sentiment surveys abstract this study provides evidence that supply side soft information retrieved from business surveys is effective in real time forecasting of hotel arrivals at the regional level we assess the effect of including business sentiment indicators in commonly used naive specifications and structural time series models using residuals and predictive diagnostics we find that both the goodness of fit and the forecasting accuracy of the augmented models are superior to those of the baseline models whence the opportunity to extend to the tourism sector the surveys on the business sentiment currently realized by the provincial chambers of commerce for the manufacturing sector allowing an effective and timely managing of local tourism market where official information is likely to be either lacking or poor in quality

tourism forecasting and the policymaker criteria of usefulness abstract this article is a sequel to one by the author in the september 1982 issue of tourism management in which the question of what futures research could contribute to tourism policy was raised here the subject is explored further and a comparison of various forecasting techniques is used to investigate how far forecasting is and could be useful in supporting tourism policies

determinants of demand for international tourist flows to turkey abstract this article describes the development and findings of a set of models used to identify the most important of the following selected variables influencing international tourist flows to turkey per capita income relative prices relative exchange rate promotional expenditure the turkish government has invested a substantial amount in promoting foreign tourism and special events eg political unrest the demand for travel was measured both by the number of tourists and by the total tourist expenditure data were obtained from secondary sources and analysis was by least squares multiple regression income price and exchange rate were found to be important factors but the impact of promotional expenditure was minimal

the impact of crisis events and macroeconomic activity on taiwan s international inbound tourism demand abstract the number of inbound tourism arrivals directly impacts the tourism industry and the government agency investments therein therefore policymakers need to improve their understanding of how crisis events affect the demand for inbound tourism from the first quarter of 1996 to the second quarter of 2006 taiwan experienced four major disasters at approximately two year intervals these disasters included the asian financial crisis in 1997 the 21st september 1999 earthquake the 11th september 2001 attacks in the united states and the outbreak of sars in 2003 this paper examines the impact of crisis events on the demand for tourism in order to establish a better understanding of changes and trends in the demand for international tourism this paper uses the auto regression distributed lag model by pesaran shin and smith pesaran m h shin y smith r j 2001 bounds testing approaches to the analysis of long run relationship journal of applied econometrics 16 289 326 to examine the negative impact of these disasters on the demand for inbound tourism this paper also explores the influence of variables such as foreign exchange rates incomes relative prices and transportation costs on the dynamics of the demand for inbound tourism this paper finds that a long term equilibrium exists among all variables indicating that macroeconomic variables may be used to determine the rise or fall of the number of inbound tourism arrivals income and foreign exchange rates are both significant explanatory variables in terms of incurred losses the number of inbound tourism arrivals suffered the greatest decline during the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome sars followed by the 21st september 1999 earthquake and the 11th september 2001 attacks the impact of the asian financial crisis was relatively mild this paper finds that any impact on safety whether domestic or international negatively affects tourism demand the impact of financial crises on tourism demand is less significant ensuring the safety and health of tourists is the key to maintain demand for inbound tourism

the impacts of temporary but anticipated tourism spending an application to the glasgow 2014 commonwealth games an extensive literature attempts to identify the economic impact of tourism expenditure while input output methods have been widely applied these may not always be appropriate for such applications and there is a growing use of more flexible computable general equilibrium cge approaches this paper uses a multi period scottish cge model to estimate the system wide effects of the temporary tourism expenditure related to the glasgow 2014 commonwealth games we quantify the sensitivity of our results to model specification focusing in particular on how investment and consumption decisions are made and shifted over time to accommodate the temporary tourism shock as part of this analysis we identify the pre announcement period that optimises the present value of the economic impact whilst the empirical results apply to a specific event our results have implications for similar analyses applied to mega events and other temporary phenomena affecting tourism expenditure such as terrorism attacks or epidemics

bayesian models for tourism demand forecasting abstract this study extends the existing forecasting accuracy debate in the tourism literature by examining the forecasting performance of various vector autoregressive var models in particular this study seeks to ascertain whether the introduction of the bayesian restrictions priors to the unrestricted var process would lead to an improvement in forecasting performance in terms of achieving a higher degree of accuracy the empirical results based on a data set on the demand for hong kong tourism show that the bayesian var bvar models invariably outperform their unrestricted var counterparts it is noteworthy that the univariate bvar was found to be the best performing model among all the competing models examined

the forecasting of international expo tourism using quantitative and qualitative techniques this study predicts the number of visitors to an international tourism expo to be held in korea in 2012 an unprecedented event for the host city forecasting demand for such a mega event has received only limited attention in the literature unlike most studies forecasting international tourism demand forecasting expo demand involves using both quantitative forecasting models and qualitative technique because of data limitations combining quantitative techniques with willingness to visit wtv surveys predicts the expo demand at 8 9 million visitors in comparison using the delphi method experts predict expo demand at 6 8 million visitors for this study the delphi method provides more conservative estimates than estimates from combining quantitative techniques with wtv policy implications presented are directed toward expo planners and practitioners in terms of demand and supply side application of these results in the decision making process and future challenges surrounding demand forecasting

a comparison of three different approaches to tourist arrival forecasting abstract forecasting plays a major role in tourism planning the promotion of tourism projects involving substantial sums of money requires an estimate of future demand and market penetration the commitment to developing tourism would be much easier if it were possible to analyse current and past tourist traffic and predict the nature of changes in tourism demand these extrapolative approaches to forecasting require historical data this paper investigates the application of three time series forecasting techniques namely exponential smoothing univariate arima and elman s model of artificial neural networks ann to predict travel demand i e the number of arrivals from different countries to hong kong exponential smoothing and arima are two commonly used statistical time series forecasting techniques the third approach neural networks is an artificial intelligence technique derived from computer science according to the analysis presented in this paper neural networks seems to be the best method for forecasting visitor arrivals especially those series without obvious pattern

modelling us tourism demand for european destinations abstract an almost ideal demand system model is used to examine us demand for tourism in european destinations the model provides policy makers with useful information concerning the sensitivity of tourism demand to changes in relative prices exchange rates and expenditure the results show that price competitiveness is important for us demand for france italy and spain but is relatively unimportant for the uk france and italy are regarded as substitutes by us tourists as are spain and italy as us expenditure rises the market shares of spain and the uk decline while france and italy benefit the demand modelling and forecasting indicate that in the absence of a tourism price index the choice between alternative price indices does not have a significant effect on the results

does tourism support supply side structural reform in china abstract a supply side structural reform ssr has been carried out in china since late 2015 with a view to reducing overproduction in selected products such as coal iron and steel this paper examines whether the development of international tourism in china could support ssr using an multi methods approach that combines an econometric model and a computable general equilibrium model it finds that the development of tourism can reduce the outputs of overcapacity industries and reallocate surplus labour to tourism related industries the calibration of 30 provincial cge models demonstrates that the impact of tourism on reform in provinces with severer industry overcapacities is much stronger this study contributes to the literature on the spillover effects of tourism on non tourism sectors through its combination of econometric and cge models practical implications are also presented

who benefits from economic freedom unraveling the effect of economic freedom on subjective well being who benefits from economic freedom results from a panel of 86 countries over the 1990 2005 period suggest that overall economic freedom has a significant positive effect on subjective well being its dimensions legal security and property rights sound money and regulation are in particular strong predictors of higher well being the overall positive effect is not affected by socio demographics the effects of individual dimensions vary however developing countries profit more from higher economic freedom in particular from reducing the regulatory burden culture moderates the effect societies that are more tolerant and have a positive attitude toward the market economy profit the most

measuring the economic contribution of the international association conference market an irish case study conferences and meetings are a prerequisite in the modern global economy and can contribute substantially to national income and foreign exchange earnings this study assesses the economic contribution of the international association conference market to ireland and highlights key sectors that demonstrate strong multiplier effects primary conference expenditure estimates are combined with sector multipliers to determine direct indirect and induced effects across a range of monetary aggregates in ireland in 2007 total direct conference spending of 131 1 million generated 235 8 million in output 45 4 million in income 101 6 million in value added 52 0 million in imports and 9 3 million in product taxes key conference sectors are highlighted including hotels and restaurants renting services of machinery and equipment air transport and retail shopping findings also indicate the varying nature of derived economic effects over discrete time periods particularly in the post conference period overall the results demonstrate that the conference market contributed substantially to economic aggregates in ireland in 2007

limited attention as a scarce resource in information rich economies this article uses basic facts from the psychology of attention to show how the limited attention of consumers affects economic competition the article determines endogenously whether an economy is information rich or information poor a conventional economic equilibrium results if subjects have spare attention capacity at the positive level the respective impacts of advances in information technology international integration and the media on equilibrium diversity and level of attention seeking activities are shown at the normative level the issues of welfare efficiency and optimal policy interventions are addressed

the impacts of australia s departure tax tourism versus the economy abstract this study estimates the flow and expenditure effects of the recent increase in australia s passenger movement charge pmc as well as the economic impacts on the australian economy and the tourism industry after discussing the nature of the pmc it outlines the types of industry stakeholder concerns as to its effects on tourism both before and after the recent increase it then presents a framework developed by the authors that can be used to distinguish the effects of the increased pmc on the wider economy and on different tourism markets a computable general equilibrium model is then used to estimate the economic impacts of the increased charge on different australian tourism markets inbound outbound and domestic the implications of the modelling results for the validity of the industry criticisms of the pmc are discussed the results confirm that the tourism industry will suffer though it also indicates that the australian economy will gain thus there is a clash between the industry and wider economic interests the types of issues addressed in this paper can inform policy making regarding the gainers and losers from departure tax increases in tourism destinations generally

using surveys of business expenditure to draw inferences about the size of regional multipliers a case study of tourism in northern australia stoeckl n 2007 using surveys of business expenditure to draw inferences about the size of regional multipliers a case study of tourism in northern australia regional studies 41 917 931 using data from 429 different tourism enterprises operating in 47 different postcodes across northern australia this paper provides an empirical illustration of a novel short cut to estimating the size of multipliers associated with specific businesses in rural areas termed business level multipliers blms the estimates are mapped across space and regressed against several variables including type of enterprise number of employees and remoteness of region in which the business is operating the results show that business spending patterns vary more by remoteness than by the type of enterprise stoeckl n 2007 l emploi des enquetes sur les depenses d entreprises pour en tirer des conclusions quant a l importance des multiplicateurs regionaux etude de cas du tourisme dans l australie du nord regional stu

the relevance of business cycles in forecasting international tourist arrivals abstract casual empiricism suggests that there may be a cyclical trend associated with international tourist arrivals in which variation around the linear trend can be formed by the interaction with other cyclical phenomena this paper employs a simple model that incorporates a linear trend and sine function to capture these two characteristics in forecasting international tourist arrivals in hong kong the model is extended to include a set of sine functions through the application of fourier analysis to account for situations in which more than one phenomenon may be present in the time series the forecasting accuracy of the model is compared with other forecasting approaches evaluation of the results using the mean absolute percentage error measure show that the forecasting performance of the extended model with a linear trend and two sine functions is superior in terms of accuracy when compared with other forecasting models

a quantitative framework for assessing public investment in tourism an application to haiti abstract this study develops a linked regional computable general equilibrium and micro simulation rcge ms model to assess the regional economy wide and poverty impacts of a us 36 million investment in tourism in the south of haiti the first social accounting matrix for haiti with a base year of 2012 2013 was constructed to calibrate the model this research addresses three key gaps identified in the tourism impact assessment literature first a destination specific tourism demand and value chain analysis was used to calibrate the shocks implemented in the model second the rcge ms approach moves beyond the representative household configuration to enable more robust analysis of tourism investment impacts on poverty and income inequality third results of this modeling were used to inform a social cost benefit analysis to provide greater transparency in the evaluation of trade offs between investment alternatives results of this analysis showed a positive impact on sectoral activity especially for the hotel and restaurant sector 182 1 in 2040 and a 2 0 increase in gross regional product by 2040 the south s exports fell 4 7 below baseline and imports were 6 1 higher due to the inflow of foreign exchange the appreciation of the regional real exchange rate increased demand for most goods and services and limited regional productive capacity the rate of unemployment fell from 26 to 23 the investment helped lift some of the region s poorest out of poverty reducing the poverty headcount by 1 6 percentage points driving this result was an increase in employment wages and non labor income the linked rcge ms approach proves to be a powerful tool for assessing how tourism investments affect regional economic activity and revealing the mechanisms through which tourism can contribute to increased employment opportunities and poverty reduction

critical reflections on the economic impact assessment of a mega event the case of 2002 fifa world cup abstract sport tourism has received growing attention as a source of generating significant revenue and contributing major economic benefits to host cities regions and countries however current methods for assessing economic impact have had variable success in estimating tourist numbers and expenditure directly attributable to a sport tourism mega event this paper reports on the assessment of one such event the 2002 fifa world cup in south korea using an estimation method that excluded tourists whose travel was non event related the survey research conducted during the event established that 57 7 of total tourist arrivals during the period of the event could be classified as either directly and indirectly attracted by the world cup using this data it was calculated that the world cup generated an economic impact of us 1 35 billion of output sales us 307 million of income and us 713 million of value added for south korea the results also showed that foreign world cup tourists provided a much higher yield compared with foreign leisure tourists spending an estimated 1 8 times as much inclusion of the expenditure by non world cup tourists 42 3 in the calculations of impact would have resulted in a significant overestimation due to the further multiplication of the expanded figures by an input output model misleading the net economic impact of the event the use of survey data to distinguish event from non event tourists and their respective expenditure clearly illustrates some of the methodological pitfalls associated with forecasting that is simply based on generic tourist data furthermore the data generated by this assessment of net direct expenditure and economic impact using the input output analysis can be used as a comparison point for other mega sport events in terms of further research it is evident that existing models of impact assessment have not adequately conceptualized aversion and diversion effects and this begs the future inclusion of these concepts in economic impact forecasting for mega events

taxing tourism and subsidizing non tourism a welfare enhancing solution to dutch disease abstract using a combined analysis of a general equilibrium and a partial equilibrium this study models the impacts of a combined policy tool based on taxing tourism and subsidizing non tourism in a tourism dependent destination the results suggest that such a policy tool while widely discussed in economics literature may not be suitable for a tourism destination as it might have adverse effects on local welfare