price promotions in choice models promotions are used in marketing to increase sales and drive profits by temporarily decreasing the price per unit of a good some price promotions apply to all quantities 20 off some have limits on the number of units that can be purchased at a reduced price and others only offer the discount if the volume purchased is sufficiently high we develop a model of price promotions in the context of a direct utility model where its effects are incorporated through the budget constraint price promotions complicate the estimation and analysis of direct utility models because they induce kinks and points of discontinuity in the budget set we propose a bayesian approach to addressing these irregularities and demonstrate the ability of the direct utility model to be used in counterfactual analyses of price promotions we investigate the stability of utility function estimates for consumers under alternative price promotions and find that the majority of the effect of a price promotion is through the budget s

the effect of distance and road quality on food collection marketing margins and traders wages evidence from the former zaire abstract food price variation is typical of the food economies of many low income countries the presence or absence of road infrastructure is perceived to be one of the main determinants of this variation this analysis shows that in the case of the former zaire food price dispersion is significant both across products and across regions it is demonstrated that transportation costs explain most of the differences in food prices between producer regions and that road quality is an important factor in the transportation costs however food prices decrease relatively faster than transportation costs increase and traders wages are higher on bad roads

does price elasticity vary with economic growth a cross category analysis abstract how does price sensitivity change with the macroeconomic environment the authors explore this question by measuring price elasticity using household level data across 19 grocery categories over 24 quarters for each category they estimate a separate random coefficients logit model with quarter specific price response parameters and control functions to address endogeneity this specification yields a novel set of 456 elasticities across categories and time that are generated using the same method and therefore can be directly compared on average price sensitivity is countercyclical it rises when the macroeconomy weakens however substantial variation exists and a handful of categories exhibit procyclical price sensitivity the authors show that the relationship between price sensitivity and macroeconomic growth correlates strongly with the average level of price sensitivity in a category they examine several explanations for this result and conclude that a category s share of wallet is th

endogeneity in brand choice models applications of random utility models to scanner data have been widely presented in marketing for the last 20 years one particular problem with these applications is that they have ignored possible correlations between the independent variables in the deterministic component of utility price promotion etc and the stochastic component or error term in fact marketing mix variables such as price not only affect brand purchasing probabilities but are themselves endogenously set by marketing managers this work tests whether these endogeneity problems are important enough to warrant consideration when estimating random utility models with scanner panel data our results show that not accounting for endogeneity may result in a substantial bias in the parameter estimates

production risk in multi output industries estimates from norwegian dairy farms farmers who produce multiple outputs are portfolio managers in the sense that they use inputs to balance expected economic return and variance of return this article estimates the structure of the stochastic multioutput production technology in norwegian dairy farming allowing for a more flexible specification of the technology than previous studies we find that an increase in input levels leads primarily to higher output variability and that inputs also influence the covariance of shocks between outputs risk reducing effects of inputs on outputs are primarily present in the covariance functions technical change leads to shifts in the profit distribution over the data period but no welfare improvement for risk averse farmers

invited paper even the rich can make themselves poor a critical examination of iv methods in marketing applications marketing is a field that is rich in data our data is of high quality often at a highly disaggregate level and there is considerable variation in the key variables for which estimates of effects on outcomes such as sales and profits are desired the recognition that in some general sense marketing variables are set by firms on the basis of information not always observable by the researcher has led to concerns regarding endogeneity and widespread pressure to implement instrumental variables methods in marketing problems the instruments used in our empirical literature are rarely valid and the iv methods used can have poor sampling properties including substantial finite sample bias and large sampling errors given the problems with iv methods a convincing argument must be made that there is a first order endogeneity problem and that we have strong and valid instruments before these methods should be used if strong and valid instruments are not available then researchers need to look toward supplementing the information available to them for example if there are concerns about unobservable advertising or promotional variables then the researcher is much better off measuring these variables rather than using instruments such as lagged marketing variables that are clearly invalid ultimately only randomized variation in marketing variables with proper implementation and large samples can be argued to be a valid instrument without further assumptions

a bayesian semiparametric approach for endogeneity and heterogeneity in choice models marketing variables that are included in consumer discrete choice models are often endogenous extant treatments using likelihood based estimators impose parametric distributional assumptions such as normality on the source of endogeneity these assumptions are restrictive because misspecified distributions have an impact on parameter estimates and associated elasticities the normality assumption for endogeneity can be inconsistent with some marginal cost specifications given a price setting process although they are consistent with other specifications in this paper we propose a heterogeneous bayesian semiparametric approach for modeling choice endogeneity that offers a flexible and robust alternative to parametric methods specifically we construct centered dirichlet process mixtures cdpm to allow uncertainty over the distribution of endogeneity errors in a similar vein we also model consumer preference heterogeneity nonparametrically via a cdpm results on simulated data show that incorrect distributional assumptions can lead to poor recovery of model parameters and price elasticities whereas the proposed semiparametric model is able to robustly recover the true parameters in an efficient fashion in addition the cdpm offers the benefits of automatically inferring the number of mixture components that are appropriate for a given data set and is able to reconstruct the shape of the underlying distributions for endogeneity and heterogeneity errors we apply our approach to two scanner panel data sets model comparison statistics indicate the superiority of the semiparametric specification and the results show that parameter and elasticity estimates are sensitive to the choice of distributional forms moreover the cdpm specification yields evidence of multimodality skewness and outlying observations in these real data sets data as supplemental material are available at http dx doi org 10 1287 mnsc 2013 1811 this paper was accepted by j miguel villas boas marketing

an empirical assessment of endogeneity issues in demand analysis for differentiated products this article explores the issue of price and expenditure endogeneity in empirical demand analysis the analysis focuses on the u s carbonated soft drink market we test the null hypothesis that price and expenditures are exogenous in the demand for carbonated soft drinks using an almost ideal demand system aids specification we strongly reject exogeneity for both prices and expenditures we find that accounting for price expenditures endogeneity significantly impacts demand elasticity estimates we also evaluate the implications of endogeneity issues for testing weak separability over the last few decades strong linkages between economic theory and econometric methods have stimulated much empirical analysis of consumer behavior e g deaton and muellbauer 1980b the basic approach involves estimating marshallian demand functions expressing quantities consumed as functions of prices and household expenditures the usual practice is to treat prices and expenditure as exogenous variables in this article we question the validity of these exogeneity assumptions especially when focusing on the demand for differentiated products 1 this is particularly important to the extent that food consumption typically involves differentiated products in market economies we also examine the interactions between endogeneity of prices expenditure in demand systems and the testing for weak separability of consumer preferences

structural modeling and policy simulation a primary goal of research in marketing is to evaluate and recommend optimal policies for marketing actions or instruments in the terminology of franses 2005 in this respect marketing is a very policy oriented field and it is ironic that so much published research skirts the issue of policy evaluation franses s article draws much needed attention to the question of what sort of model is usable for policy simulation and evaluation our perspective on what constitutes a valid model for policy evaluation differs from franses s view but we believe our view complements his in many important respects we also strongly believe that marketing has much to contribute to the literature on structural modeling we outline some of what we believe are the advantages for marketing scholars of using structural modeling for policy evaluations and some of the challenges presented by marketing problems franses focuses on a reduced form sales response model in which the outcome variable yt is modeled conditional on marketing variables xt if customers anticipate future marketing actions and take these into account in responding to the environment at time t an additional equation is appended to the system to describe the evolution of the xt variables in franses s view this system can be used for policy simulation if both the y and x equations have timeinvariant parameters that is the lucas critique which implies that parameters of reduced form models change if the policy regime changes does not apply according to franses a model must pass standard diagnostics possess good predictive properties and exhibit parameter stability to be useful for policy simulation we applaud the attention franses is bringing to model diagnostics we believe that structural work in both marketing and economics should pay close attention to the central features of the data increased use of model diagnostics will help ensure that structural models are capable of capturing these features however we do not believe that all the criteria proposed by franses such as out of sample validity and parameter stability are either necessary or sufficient to render a model useful for policy simulation reduced form models can pass all diagnostics including out of sample validation and still provide misleading predictions about the effects of policy changes reduced form

quantity discount dependent consumer preferences and competitive nonlinear pricing abstract producers of consumer packaged goods often offer several package sizes of the same product and charge a lower unit price for a larger size in this article the authors investigate the quantity discount effect or the phenomenon that consumers derive transaction utility from the unit price difference between a small and a large package size of the same product the authors propose a modeling framework composed of a demand side model and a supply side model the empirical results suggest that quantity discount induced gains or losses have a significant impact on consumer buying behavior the authors also find a substantial amount of structural heterogeneity that is some consumers perceive quantity discounts as gains whereas others perceive quantity discounts as losses conversely the supply side analysis suggests that manufacturers in the empirical application do not consider quantity discount effects when setting prices through a series of policy experiments the authors show that by accou

are sale signs less effective when more products have them we analyze data from a variety of sources including historical data from a women s clothing catalog a field study in that catalog survey responses to catalog stimuli and grocery store data for frozen juice toothpaste and tuna the analysis yields three conclusions first sale signs are less effective at increasing demand when more items have them second total category sales are maximized when some but not all products have sale signs third placing a sale sign on a product reduces the perceived likelihood that the product will be available at a lower price in the future but the effect is smaller when more products have sale signs by ruling out alternative hypotheses the findings suggest that moderation of the sale sign effect is in part due to reduced credibility when they are used on more products the credibility argument is motivated in part by a recent paper that presented an equilibrium model predicting that customers who lack knowledge of market prices rely on point of purchase sale signs to help evaluate posted prices anderson and simester 1998 the model predicts that sale signs increase demand but that the increase is smaller when more products have them this moderating effect regulates how many sale signs stores use and makes customer reliance on these cues an equilibrium strategy to evaluate whether the number of sale signs moderates their effectiveness we compare demand for items with sale signs when varying the number of sale signs on other products for this comparison we use two datasets describing demand for products in a women s clothing catalog the first dataset describes customer orders for the same set of items across three sequential issues of the catalog the second dataset is a field test conducted by mailing different versions of the catalog to randomly selected customer samples reassuringly although the datasets do not share the same limitations the findings are consistent and indicate that sale signs are less effective when more products have them in addition to the credibility explanation there are at least two alternative explanations for this result first using a sale sign to make a product more attractive may lead to substitution of demand from other sale items within a store and so demand may vary even if there is no change in the credibility of the sale signs to discriminate between the substitution and credibility explanations we evaluate whether total category demand is maximized when some but not all products in the category have sale signs the credibility explanation implies that adding another sale sign will eventually decrease total category sales when many items already have sale signs in contrast if adding a sale sign to an item leads solely to substitution from other products within or outside the category we will not observe a decrease in total category demand we test the total category sales prediction using grocery store scan data describing total category demand for frozen juice toothpaste and canned tuna the findings reveal that in all three categories there is a significant reduction in aggregate demand a second alternative explanation is that sale signs focus customer attention on products with these cues distinguishing between the attention and credibility explanations is a difficult task they both imply that sale signs deliver less information when there are too many sale signs the credibility argument predicts that this occurs because the signs are noticed but not believed the attention explanation predicts that the signs are less likely to be noticed when attention is diluted by a large number of sale signs to discriminate between the credibility explanation and this attention effect we use survey measures to evaluate a third hypothesis this hypothesis predicts both that placing a sale sign on a product reduces the perceived likelihood that the product will be available at a lower price in the next period and that this effect is smaller when more items have them in an attempt to control for the attention effect we focus subjects attention on a set of focal items under these conditions it is unlikely that subjects overlook sale signs on these items more important the likelihood of overlooking sale signs on the focal items is unlikely to depend on how many other items also have sale signs the results confirm both that the presence of a sale sign reduced subjects expectations that an item would be available at a lower price in the future and that this effect is smaller when more items have sale signs

selling at the farmgate or traveling to market using detailed survey data from uganda this article examines whether coffee producers sell to itinerant traders or directly to markets where they can get a higher price but must incur a transport cost we find that selling to the market is more likely when the quantity sold is large and the market is close by wealthy farmers are less likely to sell to the market possibly because the shadow value of their time is higher but if they have a large quantity of coffee for sale they are more likely to sell it to the market they are also more likely to travel to a distant market these findings are consistent with their better ability to pay for public transportation we find no evidence that the decision to sell at the farmgate is driven by a self control motive

competitive pricing behavior in the auto market a structural analysis in a competitive marketplace the effectiveness of any element of the marketing mix is determined not only by its absolute value but also by its relative value with respect to the competition for example the effectiveness of a price cut in increasing demand is critically related to competitors reaction to the price change managers therefore need to know the nature of competitive interactions among firms in this paper we take a theory driven empirical approach to gain a deeper understanding of the competitive pricing behavior in the u s auto market the ability motivation paradigm posits that a firm needs both the ability and the motivation to succeed in implementing a strategy boulding and staelin 1995 we use arguments from the game theoretic literature to understand firm motivation and abilities in different segments of the auto market we then combine these insights from the game theoretic literature and the ability motivation paradigm to develop hypotheses about competition in different segments of the u s auto market to test our hypotheses of competitive behavior we estimate a structural model that disentangles the competition effect from the demand and cost effects on prices the theory of repeated games predicts that firms with a long run profitability objective will try to sustain cooperative pricing behavior as a stable equilibrium when conditions permit for example markets with high concentration and stable market environments are favorable for sustaining cooperative behavior and therefore provide firms with the ability to cooperate the theory of switching costs suggests that in markets in which a firm s current customers tend to be loyal firms have a motivation to compete very aggressively for new customers recognizing the positive benefits of loyalty from the customer base in the long run as consumer loyalty in the market increases the gains from increasing market share by means of aggressive competitive behavior are more than offset by losses in profit margins firms therefore have the motivation to price cooperatively empirically we find aggressive behavior in the minicom pact and subcompact segments cooperative behavior in the compact and midsize segments and bertrand behavior in the full size segment these findings are consistent with our theory based hypotheses about competition in different segments in estimating a structural model of the auto market we address several methodological issues a particular difficulty is the large number of car models in the u s auto market existing studies have inferred competitive behavior only in markets with two to four products they also use relatively simple functional forms of demand to facilitate easy estimation functional forms of demand however impose structure on cross elasticities between products such structure when inappropriate can bias the estimates of competitive interaction we therefore use the random coefficients logit demand model to allow flexibility in cross elasticities we also use recent advances in new empirical industrial organization neio to extend structural estimation of competitive behavior to markets with a large number of products we use the simulation based estimation approach developed by berry et al 1995 to estimate our model a frequent criticism of the neio approach is that its focus on industry specific studies limits the generalizability of its findings in this study we retain the advantages of neio methods but partially address the issue of generalizability by analyzing competitive behavior in multiple segments within the auto industry to see whether there is a consistent pattern that can be explained by theory theoretical modelers can use our results to judge the appropriateness of their models in predicting competitive outcomes for the markets that they analyze a by product of our analysis is that we also get estimates of demand and cost apart from competitive interactions for the market managers can use these estimates to perform what if analysis they can answer questions about what prices to charge when a new product is introduced or when an existing product s characteristics are changed

unpacking the meaning of market access evidence from rural kenya summary this paper critically examines the dimensions of market access using farm panel survey data from kenya we investigate changes in ten indicators of market access during the 1997 2010 post liberalization period we find major improvements in certain market access conditions and little change in others there is generally low correlation between alternative indicators of market access all purpose indicators may not accurately reflect specific market access conditions of interest distances to physical infrastructure are often not representative of farmers access to markets changes in specific market access conditions may have more to do with the behaviors of marketing agents we consider the implications of these findings for agricultural marketing policies and for research methods

empirical analysis of competitive product line pricing decisions lead follow or move together researchers have recently developed models for determining which market conduct best describes observed data we apply these techniques from the new empirical industrial organization literature to the competitive product line pricing decision where a firm strategically prices its brands when determining the profit maximizing conduct in the market demand cost and market structure are estimated endogenously empirical results from analyzing price competition in the laundry detergent market between procter and gamble selling tide and eraplus and lever brothers offering wisk and surf indicate that each firm positions its strong brand as a stackelberg leader with the rival s minor brand being the follower

the asymmetric effect of discount retraction on subsequent choice this article examines the subsequent impact of a temporary price discount on brand preference after the promotion is retracted theorizing that price salience has an impact on price sensitivity we propose that the effects of retracting a discount depend on the promoted brand s regular price quality positioning in a first experiment in which we track consumer choices across a sequence of choice occasions we show that retracting a discount posted by a higher quality higher price brand is detrimental to that brand in contrast a discount posted by a lower quality lower price brand is capable of enduringly diverting consumers away from high end brands a second experiment relies on process measures to provide evidence for the underlying price salience mechanism a third experiment tests our hypotheses with real incentives and offers additional support for our price salience theory by testing its most peculiar behavioral implication

endogeneity and simultaneity in competitive pricing and advertising a logit demand analysis in this article we use four data sets to provide a benchmark study of the effects of accounting for endogeneity and simultaneity in estimating marketing mix effects in a logit demand framework we compare the results obtained from accounting for endogeneity only to those from accounting for both endogeneity and simultaneity and in the latter case we allow for more general models of firm behavior to examine the consequences of imposing assumptions about the behavior of firms we find that accounting for both endogeneity and simultaneity not only affects the parameter estimates but also results in efficiency gains that affect the statistical significance of the estimates

spatial integration transport costs and the response of local prices to policy changes in ghana abstract this paper investigates the respective roles of spatial integration and transport costs in explaining price changes in ghana we introduce a model of price formation and market integration that incorporates the price transmission process between local and central markets and also captures the implications for volatility of local prices we explore the implications of the model for the time path of price adjustments as determined directly and indirectly through the marketing sector we show that the price adjustment process in a local market is determined by the degree of interdependence between that market and the central market in which a price shock originates and estimate the intertemporal and interspatial dynamics of the price adjustment process using data from wholesale maize markets in ghana we find that reductions in local prices and local price variance following the introduction of economic reforms in 1983 can be traced to both local and central market forces but that differences in the degree of market integration have important implications for long run changes in transport costs and the evolution of prices in outlying markets

five a day a price to pay an evaluation of the uk program impact accounting for market forces we provide an ex post assessment of the uk 5 a day information campaign where the positive effects of information are disentangled from potentially conflicting price dynamics using 4 years of data from the expenditure and food survey between 2002 and 2006 we estimate that the 5 a day program has lifted fruit and vegetable consumption by 0 3 portions on average we also provide quantitative evidence of a differentiated impact by income group ranging from 0 2 to 0 7 portions all impacts are larger than those observed by simply comparing pre policy and post policy intakes

a simultaneous model of consumer brand choice and negotiated price in this paper we develop a simultaneous model of consumer brand choice and negotiated price in the highly relevant marketing context of automobile transactions consumer brand choice is modeled as a multinomial probabilistic outcome and the individual consumer level transaction price is modeled to be consistent with the nash bargaining solution our simultaneous model introduces a natural way to account for price endogeneity in a microlevel choice setting when the price paid is individual specific and correlated with the idiosyncratic preference of a buyer it also accounts for the potential selectivity bias in studying the negotiated price by integrating consumer brand choice modeling we apply the proposed model to a data set of 4 795 consumer automobile purchases the empirical results show that the proposed approach not only better fits the data of consumer choice and negotiated price but it also provides additional insights into buyers and sellers behaviors in comparison with models that study only consumer choice or the negotiated price but not both simultaneously

structural estimation of the effect of out of stocks we develop a structural demand model that endogenously captures the effect of out of stocks on customer choice by simulating a time varying set of available alternatives our estimation method uses store level data on sales and partial information on product availability our model allows for flexible substitution patterns which are based on utility maximization principles and can accommodate categorical and continuous product characteristics the methodology can be applied to data from multiple markets and in categories with a relatively large number of alternatives slow moving products and frequent out of stocks unlike many existing approaches in addition we illustrate how the model can be used to assist the decisions of a store manager in two ways first we show how to quantify the lost sales induced by out of stock products second we provide insights on the financial consequences of out of stocks and suggest price promotion policies that can be used to help mitigate their negative economic impact which run counter to simple commonly used heuristics

the shape of advertising response functions revisited a model of dynamic probabilistic thresholds prior work in marketing has suggested that advertising threshold effects levels beneath which there is essentially no sales response are rarely encountered in practice because advertising policies settle into effective ranges through early trial and error thresholds cannot be observed directly and arguments for their existence must be based primarily on a statistical footprint that is on relative fits of a range of model types to detect possible threshold effects we formulate a switching regression model with two regimes in only one of which advertising is effective mediating the switch between the two regimes is a logistic function of category specific dynamic variables e g order of entry time in market number of competitors and advertising levels nesting a variety of alternative formulations among them both standard concave and s shaped responses a sequence of comparisons among parametrically related models strongly suggests that threshold effects exist that market share response to advertising is not necessarily globally concave that superior fit cannot be attributed to model flexibility alone and that dynamic environmental competitive and brand specific factors can influence advertising effectiveness these effects are evident in two evolving durables categories suvs and minivans although not in the one mature nondurable category liquid detergent studied

production risk technical efficiency and panel data abstract this paper demonstrates a method of measuring production risk and technical efficiency using panel data a flexible translog production function is used to represent the underlying production technology the risk function appears multiplicatively with the production function and it is flexible enough to accommodate both positive and negative marginal risks with respect to the inputs the model also includes features of the usual panel data models a multi step procedure is used to estimate the parameters of the model estimation of individual and time specific technical efficiences is also considered

the price elasticity of selective demand a meta analysis of econometric models of sales the author describes a meta analysis of econometric studies that estimated the elasticity of selective sales or market share to price the literature review yielded 367 suitable price elasticities

heteroscedasticity or production risk a synthetic view two veins of literature namely production risk literature and stochastic frontier analysis are examined both fields are concerned of output variation the former due to exogenous shocks the latter due inefficiency by covering the literature from both the fields this review suggests that the concept of heteroscedasticity can be utilized to build a synthesis between these mainly separate branches of literature however the synthetic approach brings a challenge how to differentiate between different sources of output variation this challenge is identified as the main obstacle to meaningfully combine the two approaches

forecasting marketing mix responsiveness for new products abstract before a new product launch marketers need to infer how demand will respond to various levels of marketing mix variables to set an appropriate marketing plan a critical challenge in estimating marketing mix responsiveness from historical data is that the observed decisions were affected by private information possessed by managers about the heterogeneous effects of marketing mix variables on sales the authors refer to this as the slope endogeneity problem such endogeneity differs from the intercept endogeneity problem which has been widely acknowledged in the literature to correct for the slope endogeneity bias the authors develop a conceptually simple control function approach that is amenable to multiple endogenous variables and marketing mix carryover effects the method is applied to forecasting advertising responsiveness in the u s dvd market the results suggest that advertising responsiveness varies substantially across dvd titles and that estimated marketing mix elasticities w

a likelihood approach to estimating market equilibrium models this paper develops a new likelihood based method for the simultaneous estimation of structural demand and supply models for markets with differentiated products we specify an individual level discrete choice model of demand and derive the supply side assuming manufacturers compete in prices the proposed estimation method considers price endogeneity through simultaneous estimation of demand and supply allows for consumer heterogeneity and incorporates a pricing rule consistent with economic theory the basic idea behind the proposed estimation procedure is to simulate prices and choice probabilities by solving for the market equilibrium by repeating this many times we obtain an empirical distribution of equilibrium prices and probabilities the empirical distribution is then smoothed and used in a likelihood procedure to estimate the parameters of the model the advantage of this method is that it avoids the need to perform a transformation of variables if the tastes of consumers are independent across market periods our approach yields maximum likelihood estimates otherwise it yields consistent but not fully efficient partial likelihood estimates

a larger slice or a larger pie an empirical investigation of bargaining power in the distribution channel this research aims to provide insights into the determinants of channel profitability and the relative power in the channel by considering consumer demand and the interactions between manufacturers and retailers in an equilibrium model we use the nash bargaining solution to determine wholesale prices and thus how margins are split in the channel equilibrium margins are a function of demand primitives and of retailer and manufacturer bargaining power bargaining power is itself a function of exogenous retail and manufacturer characteristics the parties bargaining positions are determined endogenously from the estimated substitution patterns on the demand side the more they have to lose in a negotiation relative to an outside option the weaker the bargaining position we use the proposed bargaining model to investigate the role of the three main factors that have been blamed for the power shift from manufacturers to retailers in recent years firm size increases store brand introductions and service level differentiation in our empirical analysis of the german market for coffee we find that bargaining power varies among the different manufacturer retailer pairs this result suggests that bargaining power is not an inherent characteristic of a firm but rather depends on the negotiation partner we are able to confirm empirically previous theoretical findings that there can be cases where the slice of the pie that goes to one of the channel members may decrease but the overall pie increases and compensates for the smaller share of profits

unobserved retailer behavior in multimarket data joint spatial dependence in market shares and promotion variables marketing scholars and practitioners frequently infer market responses from cross sectional or pooled cross section by time data such cases occur especially when historical data are either absent or are not representative of the current market situation we argue that inferring market responses using cross sections of multimarket data may in some cases be misleading because these data also reflect unobserved actions by retailers for example because the opportunity costs of doing so do not outweigh the gains retailers are predisposed against promoting small share brands as a consequence local prices and promotion variables depend on local market shares the higher the local share the higher the local observed promotion intensity we refer to this reverse causation as an endogeneity ignoring it will inflate response estimates because both the promotion effects on share as well as the reverse effects are in the same direction in this paper we propose a solution to this inference problem using the fact that retailers have trade territories consisting of multiple contiguous markets this implies that the unobserved actions of retailers cause a measurable spatial dependence among the marketing variables the intuition behind our approach is that by accounting for this spatial dependence we account for the effects of the retailer s behavior in this context our study hopes to make the following contributions at the core of which lies the above intuition first we separate the market response effect from the reverse retailer effect by computing responses to price and promotion net of any spatial and therefore retailer influence second underlying this approach is a new variance decomposition model for data with a panel structure this model allows to test for endogeneity of prices and promotion variables in the cross sectional dimension of the data this test aims to complement the one developed by villas boas and winer 1999 who test for endogeneity along the temporal dimension third to illustrate the approach we use information resources inc iri market share data for brands in two mature and relatively undifferentiated product categories across 64 iri markets whereas we only use data with very short time horizons to estimate price and promotion responses with the spatial model we do have data over long time windows we use the latter to validate the approach specifically within market estimates of price and promotion response are not subject to the same endogeneity because we hold the set of retailers constant therefore comparing within and across market estimates of price and promotion responses is a natural way to validate the approach consistent with our argument ignoring the reverse causation in the cross sectional data leads to inferences of price and promotion elasticities that are farther away from zero than the elasticities obtained from within market analysis in contrast cross sectional spatial estimates and time series estimates show convergent validity from a practical point of view this means it is possible to obtain reasonable within market estimates of price and promotion elasticities from predominantly cross sectional data this may benefit marketing managers the manager who would act on the inflated elasticities will over allocate marketing resources to promotions because she ignores retailers censorship of promotions on the basis of already existing high share we explore other approaches to correct for the inference bias and discuss further managerial issues and future research

new empirical generalizations on the determinants of price elasticity abstract the importance of pricing decisions for firms has fueled an extensive stream of research on price elasticities in an influential meta analytical study tellis 1988 summarized price elasticity research findings until 1986 however empirical generalizations on price elasticity require modifications because of 1 changes in market characteristics i e characteristics of brands product categories and economic conditions and 2 changes in the research methodology used to assess price elasticities therefore the authors present a meta analysis of price elasticity with new empirical generalizations on its determinants across a set of 1851 price elasticities based on 81 studies the average price elasticity is 2 62 a salient finding is that over the past four decades sales elasticities have significantly increased in magnitude whereas share and choice elasticities have remained fairly constant the authors find that accommodating price endogeneity has a strong magnitude increasing impa

peasant household behaviour with missing markets some paradoxes explained a model of peasant household behavior under varying degrees of household specific food and labor market failures is constructed to show that these structural features can explain several well known patterns of peasant response which have often been attributed to peculiar motives presumed specific to peasants the model explains sluggish response to cash crops prices and high instability in perceived food and labor scarcities the key role of manufactured consumer goods prices in stimulating peasants effort in cash crops production the effectiveness of taxation as opposed to incentives in stimulating cash crops production and the key role of technological change in food production to enhance cash crop production results are obtained analytically in the case of one market failure and by numerical simulation with more than one

advertising effects in presidential elections presidential elections provide both an important context in which to study advertising and a setting that mitigates the challenges of dynamics and endogeneity we use the 2000 and 2004 general elections to analyze the effect of market level advertising on county level vote shares the results indicate significant positive effects of advertising exposures both instrumental variables and fixed effects alter the ad coefficient advertising elasticities are smaller than are typical for branded goods yet significant enough to shift election outcomes for example if advertising were set to zero and all other factors held constant three states electoral votes would have changed parties in 2000 given the narrow margin of victory in 2000 this shift would have resulted in a different president

estimating demand heterogeneity using aggregated data an application to the frozen pizza category this paper combines different aggregate level data sets to identify new product demand in consumer packaged goods cpg categories our approach augments market level time series data with widely available summaries of household purchase behavior i e brand penetration and purchase set size data we show that this augmentation is helpful in the estimation of consumer heterogeneity for instance observing a brand with relatively large shares and low penetration typically indicates that preferences are dispersed with relatively few customers liking the brand a lot whereas the combination of share and penetration is informative about heterogeneity with realistic sample sizes in isolation neither variable may lead to precise estimates of heterogeneity in addition other widely available data e g category penetration is helpful in estimating the size of the total market using a large monte carlo study the paper demonstrates the benefits of the proposed approach in estimating model parameters price elasticities and brand switching empirically the approach is used to evaluate the launch of a new national brand digiorno in the frozen pizza category the new brand is inferred to be very successful at expanding the category while avoiding cannibalization of existing company share using only standard information i e market shares to estimate the demand model leads in our data to poor estimates of the degree of consumer taste variation and of switching to a new brand

pricing and market concentration in oligopoly markets this paper investigates the relationship between prices and market concentration in the auto rental industry we assemble an original database that includes the number of auto rental operators and other exogenous demand and cost conditions at every commercial airport in the country the data are interesting because we observe a large variation in market structure ranging from more than 100 monopoly and duopoly markets to several competitive airports with more than eight firms in addition we collect daily rental prices in each market that are regressed against the number of operating firms and other control factors due to potential biases in treating market participants as exogenously assigned we employ a two stage estimation procedure in which an equilibrium model of endogenous market structure provides correction terms for the second stage price regression results show that ignoring the endogeneity of market structure severely underestimates the impact of additional competitors on prices with the

transactions costs and agricultural household supply response we develop and estimate a model of supply response when transactions costs create a situation where some producers buy others sell and others do not participate in markets we present two rationales for why producing households may have different relationships to the market proportional and fixed transactions costs using data on mexican corn producers we estimate an empirical model that allows for separate tests of the significance of both types of transactions costs revealing that both fixed and proportional transactions costs matter for the estimation the results provide consistent estimates of supply elasticity and measures of the relative importance of factors determining both proportional and fixed transactions costs

structural analysis of manufacturer pricing in the presence of a strategic retailer consumer goods manufacturers usually sell their brands to consumers through common independent retailers theoretical research on such channel structures has analyzed the optimal behavior of channel members under alternative assumptions of manufacturer retailer interaction vertical strategic interaction research in empirical industrial organization has focused on analyzing the competitive interactions between manufacturers horizontal strategic interaction decision support systems have made various assumptions about retailer pricing rules e g constant markup category profit maximization the appropriateness of such assumptions about strategic behavior for any specific market however is an empirical question this paper therefore empirically infers 1 the vertical strategic interaction vsi between manufacturers and retailer 2 the horizontal strategic interaction hsi between manufacturers simultaneously with the vsi and 3 the pricing rule used by a retailer the approach is particularly appealing because it can be used with widely available scanner data where there is no information on wholesale prices researchers usually have no access to wholesale prices even manufacturers who have access to their own wholesale prices usually have limited information on competitors wholesale prices in the absence of wholesale prices we derive formulae for wholesale prices using game theoretic solution techniques under the specific assumptions of vertical and horizontal strategic interaction and retailer pricing rules we then embed the formulae for wholesale prices into the estimation equations while our empirical illustration is using scanner data without wholesale prices the model itself can be applied when wholesale prices are available early research on the inference of hsi among manufacturers in setting wholesale prices using scanner data e g kadiyali et al 1996 1999 made the simplifying assumption that retailers charge a constant margin this assumption enabled them to infer wholesale prices and analyze competitive interactions between manufacturers in this paper we show that this model is econometrically identical to a model that measures retail price coordination across brands hence the inferred cooperation among manufacturers could be exaggerated by the coordinated pricing category management done by the retailer we find empirical support for this argument this highlights the need to properly model and infer vsi simultaneously to accurately estimate the hsi when using data at the retail level functional forms of demand have been evaluated in terms of the fit of the model to sales data but recent theoretical research on channels lee and staelin 1997 tyagi 1999 has shown that the functional form has serious implications for strategic behavior such as retail passthrough while the logit and linear model implies equilibrium passthrough of less than 100 lee and staelin call this vertical strategic substitute vss the multiplicative model implies optimal passthrough of greater than 100 vertical strategic complement vsc because passthrough rates on promotions have been found to be below or above 100 chevalier and curhan 1976 armstrong 1991 we empirically test the appropriateness of the logit vss and the multiplicative vsc functional form for the data we perform our analysis in the yogurt and peanut butter categories for the two biggest stores in a local market we found that the vss implications of the logit fit the data better than the multiplicative model we also find that for both categories the best fitting model is one in which 1 the retailer maximizes category profits 2 the vsi is manufacturer stackelberg and 3 manufacturer pricing hsi is tacitly collusive the fact that the retailer maximizes category profits is consistent with theoretical expectations the inference that the vsi is manufacturer stackelberg reflects the institutional reality of the timing of the game retailers set their retail prices after manufacturers set their wholesale prices note that in the stores and product categories that we analyze the two manufacturers own the dominant brands with combined market shares of about 82 in the yogurt market and 65 in the peanut butter market the result is also consistent with a balance of power argument in the literature the finding that manufacturer pricing is tacitly collusive is consistent with the argument that firms involved in long term competition in concentrated markets can achieve tacit collusion managers use decision support systems for promotion planning that routinely make assumptions about vsi hsi and the functional form the results from our analysis are of substantive import in judging the appropriateness of assumptions made in such decision support systems

modeling multiple sources of heterogeneity in multinomial logit models methodological and managerial issues we offer a framework to specify and estimate various sources of heterogeneity in multinomial logit brand choice models we let each brand specific intercept and each parameter of the explanatory variable vector vary randomly across households in addition we distinguish loyal households from the rest our results suggest that incorporating multiple sources of heterogeneity improves the model fit and suggests higher impact of marketing mix elements on brand choice we highlight the importance of incorporating multiple sources of heterogeneity the model we implement yields valuable managerial insights

the sound of silence observational learning in the u s kidney market mere observation of others choices can be informative about product quality this paper develops an individual level dynamic model of observational learning and applies it to a novel data set from the u s kidney market where transplant candidates on a waiting list sequentially decide whether to accept a kidney offer we find strong evidence of observational learning patients draw negative quality inferences from earlier refusals in the queue thus becoming more inclined towards refusal themselves this self reinforcing chain of inferences leads to poor kidney utilization despite the continual shortage in kidney supply counterfactual policy simulations show that patients would have made more efficient use of kidneys had the concerns behind earlier refusals been shared this study yields a set of marketing implications in particular we show that observational learning and information sharing shape consumer choices in markedly different ways optimal marketing strategies should take into account how consumers learn from others

investigating dynamic multifirm market interactions in price and advertising diagnosing the nature and magnitu de of competitive interactions among firms is important for developing effective marketing strategies in this paper we formulate a game theoretic model of firm interaction to analyze the dynamic price and advertising competition among firms in a given p roduct market firm or brand level demand functions account for the contemporaneous and carry over effects of these marketing activities and also allow for the effects of competitor actions firms take into consideration the actions of their rivals as well as their own demand and cost functions both production and advertising when determining the profit maximizing price and advertising levels our formulation enables us to quantify not only the direction and magnitude of competitive reactions but also to identify the underlying form of market conduct that generates the particular pattern of interaction we specify and estimate a fully structural econometric model for three firms constituting a distinct sub market within a personal care product category we estimate the demand and competitive interaction parameters as well as the production and advertising cost functions for each firm we then derive implications for competitive interactions and market structure interestingly we find that while firms seem to compete on advertising they price cooperatively thereby enhancing their price cost margins

an ordered tobit model of market participation evidence from kenya and ethiopia do rural households in developing countries make market participation and volume decisions simultaneously or sequentially this article develops a two stage econometric method to test between these two competing hypotheses regarding household level marketing behavior the first stage models the household s choice of whether to be a net buyer autarkic or a net seller in the market the second stage models the quantity bought sold for net buyers sellers based on observable household characteristics using household data from kenyan and ethiopian livestock markets we find evidence in favor of sequential decision making the welfare implications of which we discuss

diagnostics expectations and endogeneity abstract marketing models are often intended to guide managers to make decisions in this rejoinder the author reviews three questions that must be addressed before a model can be established as useful for policy analysis

knowledge seeking and location choice of foreign direct investment in the united states to what extent do firms go abroad to access technology available in other locations this paper examines whether and when state technical capabilities attract foreign investment in manufacturing from 1987 1993 we find that on average state r d intensity does not attract foreign direct investment most investing firms are in lower tech industries and locate in low r d intensity states suggesting little interest in state technical capabilities in contrast we find that firms in research intensive industries are more likely to locate in states with high r d intensity foreign firms in the pharmaceutical industry value state r d intensity the most at a level twice that of firms in the semiconductor industry and four times that of electronics firms interestingly not only firms from technically lagging nations but also some firms from technically leading nations are attracted to r d intensive states this suggests that beyond catching up firms use knowledge seeking investments also to source technical diversity

a general equilibrium model for industries with price and service competition this paper develops a stochastic general equilibrium inventory model for an oligopoly in which all inventory constraint parameters are endogenously determined we propose several systems of demand processes whose distributions are functions of all retailers prices and all retailers service levels we proceed with the investigation of the equilibrium behavior of infinite horizon models for industries facing this type of generalized competition under demand uncertainty we systematically consider the following three competition scenarios 1 price competition only here we assume that the firms service levels are exogenously chosen but characterize how the price and inventory strategy equilibrium vary with the chosen service levels 2 simultaneous price and service level competition here each of the firms simultaneously chooses a service level and a combined price and inventory strategy 3 two stage competition the firms make their competitive choices sequentially in a first stage all firms simultaneously choose a service level in a second stage the firms simultaneously choose a combined pricing and inventory strategy with full knowledge of the service levels selected by all competitors we show that in all of the above settings a nash equilibrium of infinite horizon stationary strategies exists and that it is of a simple structure provided a nash equilibrium exists in a so called reduced game we pay particular attention to the question of whether a firm can choose its service level on the basis of its own input characteristics i e its cost parameters and demand function only we also investigate under which of the demand models a firm under simultaneous competition responds to a change in the exogenously specified characteristics of the various competitors by either i adjusting its service level and price in the same direction thereby compensating for price increases decreases by offering improved inferior service or ii adjusting them in opposite directions thereby simultaneously offering better or worse prices and service

you can take it with you proposition 13 tax benefits residential mobility and willingness to pay for housing amenities abstract the endogeneity of prices has long been recognized as the main identification problem in the estimation of marginal willingness to pay mwtp for the characteristics of a given product this issue is particularly important in the housing market since a number of housing and neighborhood features are unobserved by the econometrician this paper proposes the use of a well defined type of transaction costs moving costs generated by property tax laws to deal with this type of omitted variable bias california s proposition 13 property tax law is the source of variation in transaction costs used in the empirical analysis beyond its fiscal consequences proposition 13 created a lock in effect on housing choice because of the implicit tax break enjoyed by homeowners living in the same house for a long time its importance to homeowners is estimated from a natural experiment created by two amendments that allow households headed by an individual over the age of 55 to transfer the implicit tax benefit to a new home indeed 55 year old homeowners have 25 higher moving rates than those of comparable 54 year olds these transaction costs from the property tax laws are then incorporated into a household sorting model the key insight is that because of the property tax laws different potential buyers may have different user costs for the same house the exogenous property tax component of this user cost is then used as an instrumental variable i find that mwtp estimates for housing characteristics are approximately 100 upward biased when the choice model does not account for the price endogeneity

bounded rationality in pricing under state dependent demand do firms look ahead and if so how far the authors propose an empirical procedure to investigate the pricing behavior of manufacturers and retailers in the presence of state dependent demand rather than assuming that firms are perfectl

transaction costs information technologies and the choice of marketplace among farmers in northern ghana using a transactions costs framework we examine the impact of information and communication technologies mobile phones and radios use on market participation in developing country agricultural markets using a novel transaction level data set of ghanaian farmers our analysis of the choice of markets by farmers suggests that market information from a broader range of markets may not always induce farmers to sell in more distant markets instead farmers may use broader market information to enhance their bargaining power in closer markets finally we find weak evidence on the impact of using mobile phones in attracting farm gate buyers

choice set heterogeneity and the role of advertising an analysis with micro and macro data abstract the authors show how to use microlevel survey data from a tracking study on brand awareness in conjunction with data on sales and advertising expenditures to improve the specification estimation and interpretation of aggregate discrete choice models of demand in a departure from the commonly made full information assumption they incorporate limited information in the form of choice sets to reflect that consumers may not be aware of all available brands at purchase time they find that both the estimated brand constants and the price coefficient are biased downward when consumer heterogeneity in choice sets is ignored these biased estimates can lead firms to make costly price setting mistakes in addition the tracking data enable the authors to identify separately two processes by which advertising influences market shares they find that advertising has a direct effect on brand awareness inclusion in choice set in addition to its effect on consumer preferences increase in utility this

logit demand estimation under competitive pricing behavior an equilibrium framework discrete choice models of demand have typically been estimated assuming that prices are exogenous since unobservable to the researcher product attributes such as coupon availability may impact consumer utility as well as price setting by firms we treat prices as endogenous specifically prices are assumed to be the equilibrium outcomes of nash competition among manufacturers and retailers to empirically validate the assumptions we estimate logit demand systems jointly with equilibrium pricing equations for two product categories using retail scanner data and cost data on factor prices in each category we find statistical evidence of price endogeneity we also find that the estimates of the price response parameter and the brand specific constants are generally biased downward when the endogeneity of prices is ignored our framework provides explicit estimates of the value created by a brand i e the difference between consumers willingness to pay for a brand and its cost of production we develop theoretical propositions about the relationship between value creation and competitive advantage for logit demand systems and use our empirical results to illustrate how firms use alternative value creation strategies to accomplish competitive advantage

dynamic demand for new and used durable goods without physical depreciation the case of japanese video games we develop a new dynamic demand model for new and used durable goods and quantify the impact of used goods markets on producers profits and consumer welfare

market facilities and agricultural marketing evidence from tamil nadu india this article analyzes the effect of facilities and infrastructure available at the marketplace on a farmer s decision to sell at the market the econometric estimation shows that the likelihood of sales at the market increases significantly with an improvement in market facilities and a decrease in travel time from the village to the market the results suggest that wealth reduces a farmer s cost of accessing market facilities more than it increases her his opportunity cost of leisure the policy simulation indicates that the marginal benefits from an improvement in market facility will favor the poorer farmers in the context of india

an examination on the cost efficiency of the banking industry under multiple output prices uncertainty this article formulates a behavioural model of profit maximization which explicitly incorporates both multiple output prices risk and safety first practice this theoretical model is specifically suitable for investigating financial institutions whose output prices frequently encounter a variety of risks such as loan defaults arrears the sample banks are empirically found to be highly risk averse furthermore risk preferences exert little effect on the technical efficiency estimates whereas the same estimates obtained by the standard fixed effect model under certainty tend to be overestimated evidence is found that a specialized bank offering a single product with a larger scale of production will be preferable in an uncertain atmosphere

price and advertising signals of product quality we present a signaling model based on ideas of phillip nelson in which both the introductory price and the level of directly uninformative advertising or other dissipative marketing expenditures are choice variables and may be used as signals for the initially unobservable quality of a newly introduced experience good repeat purchases play a crucial role in our model a second focus of the paper is on illustrating an approach to refining the set of equilibria in signalling games with multiple potential signals

promotion and fast food demand many believe that fast food promotion is a significant cause of the obesity epidemic in north america industry members argue that promotion only reallocates brand shares and does not increase overall demand we study the effect of fast food promotion on market share and total demand by estimating a discrete continuous model of fast food restaurant choice and food expenditure that explicitly accounts for both spatial and temporal determinants of demand estimates are obtained using a unique panel of canadian fast food consumers the results show that promotion primarily increases demand and has a smaller effect on restaurant market shares

practice prize winner a nested logit model of product and transaction type choice for planning automakers pricing and promotions we develop a consumer response model to evaluate and plan pricing and promotions in durable good markets we discuss its implementation in the u s automotive industry which spends about 45 billion each year in price promotions the approach is based on a random effects multinomial nested logit model of product e g a vehicle model such as hyundai tucson and transaction type choice transaction types include combinations of acquisition types e g purchase versus lease and pricing instruments cash rebates reduced apr financing lease payment discounts we estimate the model using hierarchical bayes methods to capture response heterogeneity at the local market level we find key characteristics unique to durable good markets first consumers are heterogeneous in both their brand and transaction type preferences second consumers differ in their overall price sensitivity as well as in their relative sensitivity to alternative pricing instruments e g cash discounts reduced monthly payments third the most effective pricing programs tend to be those in which automakers offer consumers a menu of options to choose from e g a choice among a cash discount reduced interest rate financing or a lease payment discount we illustrate the model through an empirical application to a sample of data drawn from j d power transaction records in the entry suv segment and discuss examples of actual implementations

a simultaneous approach to the whether what and how much to buy questions consumer s purchase decisions of whether to buy what to buy and how much to buy are examined simultaneously based on a consumer utility maximization problem an unobservable threshold price about which a consumer pivots from nonpurchase to purchase can be deduced with any model specification the interrelationships between purchase decisions can be explicitly derived the model is applied to coffee purchasing data in addition by suppressing the nonpurchase options the model is compared with an alternative approach appearing in the marketing literature

a control function approach to endogeneity in consumer choice models abstract endogeneity arises for numerous reasons in models of consumer choice it leads to inconsistency with standard estimation methods that maintain independence between the model s error and the included variables the authors describe a control function approach for handling endogeneity in choice models observed variables and economic theory are used to derive controls for the dependence between the endogenous variable and the demand error the theory points to the relationships that contain information on the unobserved demand factor such as the pricing equation and the advertising equation the authors approach is an alternative to berry levinsohn and pakes s 1995 product market controls for unobserved quality the authors apply both methods to examine households choices among television options including basic and premium cable packages in which unobserved attributes such as quality of programming are expected to be correlated with price without correcting for endogeneity aggregate d

heterogeneity in price rigidity evidence from a case study using microlevel data we combine two data sets to study price rigidity the first consists of weekly time series of retail wholesale and spot prices for twelve products these time series contain two exogenous cost shocks we find that prices exhibit more rigidity in response to the second shock than the first the second data set consists of all publicly available information about the shocks content analysis of these information reveals that the first shock is larger and more persistent and the market has more information on it than the second we conclude therefore that prices are more flexible in response to cost shocks that are larger that are more persistent and on which market participants have more information

the effectiveness of field price discretion empirical evidence from auto lending in many markets it is common for headquarters to create a price list but grant local salespeople discretion to negotiate prices for individual transactions how much if any pricing discretion headquarters should grant is a topic of debate within many firms we investigate this issue using a unique data set from an indirect lender with local pricing discretion we estimate that the local sales force adjusted prices in a way that improved profits by approximately 11 on average a counterfactual analysis shows that using a centralized data driven pricing optimization system could improve profits even further up to 20 over those actually realized this suggests that centralized pricing if appropriately optimized can be more effective than field price discretion we discuss the implications of these findings for auto lending and other industries with similar pricing processes this paper was accepted by serguei netessine operations management

investigating purchase incidence brand choice and purchase quantity decisions of households we develop a comprehensive utility maximizing framework to study the impact of marketing variables on the category purchase brand choice and purchase quantity decisions of households for frequently purchased packaged goods the model allows for dependence among the three decisions while ensuring that these decisions provide in combination the greatest possible utility to the household by accounting for variations in reservation prices and intrinsic brand preferences across households the modeling framework explicitly captures the effects of unobserved heterogeneity on all three purchase decisions the principal empirical finding from analyzing the a c nielsen data for the yogurt product category is that the substantive implications for the effects of marketing variables are sensitive to whether these effects are determined conditional or unconditional on a product category purchase our results show that reservation prices and intrinsic brand preferences vary across households and not accounting for these variations in the estimation could lead to biased estimates for the coefficients of the marketing variables a comparison of our results to those obtained from a nested logit model of purchase incidence and brand choice reveals that our proposed model performs better using both a formal statistical test as well as the criterion of predictive validity in a holdout sample of panelists further the purchase quantity model compares favorably with two alternative models of quantity choice in the validation sample

endogeneity and individual consumer choice abstract in many markets there is likely to be correlation both across periods in terms of the choices of one consumer and across consumers in terms of their choices in each period the former is caused by consumer heterogeneity and the latter may be the result of demand common shocks across consumers furthermore if firms partially observe these common shocks their market decisions may end up being endogenous and correlated with the common shocks because researchers cannot typically fully observe consumer heterogeneity and the common shocks the estimation method must account for the endogeneity of firms decisions in this article the authors present a test for endogeneity under unobserved consumer heterogeneity and common shocks which is based on a quasi likelihood estimation method to estimate the model parameters consistently when endogenous firm behavior unobserved heterogeneity and common shocks are present the test examines the differences in general method of moments coefficient estima

price flexibility in channels of distribution evidence from scanner data in this study we empirically examine the extent of price rigidity using a unique store level time series data set consisting of i actual retail transaction prices ii actual wholesale transaction prices which represent both the retailers costs and the prices received by manufacturers and iii a measure of manufacturers costs for 12 goods in two widely used consumer product categories we simultaneously examine the extent of price rigidity for each of the 12 products at both final goods and intermediate goods levels we study two notions of price rigidity employed in the existing literature i the frequency of price changes and ii the response of prices to exogenous cost changes we find that retail prices exhibit remarkable flexibility in terms of both notions of price rigidity i e they change frequently and they seem to respond quickly and fully to cost changes furthermore we find that retail prices respond not just to their direct costs but also to the upstream manufacturers costs which further reinforces the extent of the retail price flexibility at the intermediate goods level of the market in contrast we find relatively more evidence of rigidity in the response of manufacturers prices to cost changes this despite the fact that wholesale prices change frequently and therefore exhibit flexibility according to the first notion of price rigidity

rivalry in price and variety among supermarket retailers recent theoretical models of retail competition suggest that product heterogeneity is critical to retail price and variety strategies this article provides empirical evidence on supermarket retailers price and variety strategies using a nested constant elasticity of substitution nces modeling framework the model is estimated using chain level scanner data for four major grocery chains in a large urban west coast market the results show that retailers compete for market share using both price and variety while they all tend to follow moderately cooperative pricing strategies the extent to which they follow cooperative strategies in variety is less homogeneous

the dynamic advertising effect of collegiate athletics i measure the spillover effect of intercollegiate athletics on the quantity and quality of applicants to institutions of higher education in the united states an effect popularly known as the flutie effect i treat athletic success as a stock of goodwill that decays over time similar to that of advertising a major challenge is that privacy laws prevent us from observing information about the applicant pool i overcome this challenge by using order statistic distribution to infer applicant quality from information on enrolled students using a flexible random coefficients aggregate discrete choice model that accommodates heterogeneity in preferences for school quality and athletic success as well as an extensive set of school fixed effects to control for unobserved quality in athletics and academics i estimate the impact of athletic success on applicant quality and quantity overall athletic success has a significant long term goodwill effect on future applications and quality however students with lower than average sat scores tend to have a stronger preference for athletic success whereas students with higher sat scores have a greater preference for academic quality furthermore the decay rate of athletics goodwill is significant only for students with lower sat scores suggesting that the goodwill created by intercollegiate athletics resides more extensively with lower scoring students than with their higher scoring counterparts but surprisingly athletic success impacts applications even among academically stronger students

threshold effects in online group buying this paper studies two types of threshold induced effects a surge of new sign ups around the time when the thresholds of group buying deals are reached and a stronger positive relation between the number of new sign ups and the cumulative number of sign ups before the thresholds are reached than afterward this empirical study uses a data set that records the intertemporal cumulative number of sign ups for group buying deals in 86 city markets covered by groupon during a period of 71 days when groupon predominantly used a deal a day format for each local market and posted the number of sign ups in real time we find that the first type of threshold effect is significant in all product categories and in all markets the second type of threshold effect varies across product categories and markets our results underscore the importance of considering product and market characteristics in threshold design decisions for online group buying data as supplemental material are available at http dx doi org 10 1287 mnsc 2014 2015 this paper was accepted by pradeep chintagunta marketing

physician agency and adoption of generic pharmaceuticals i examine physician agency in health care services in the context of the choice between brand name and generic pharmaceuticals i examine micro panel data from japan where physicians can legally make profits by prescribing and dispensing drugs the results indicate that physicians often fail to internalize patient costs explaining why cheaper generics are infrequently adopted doctors respond to markup differentials between the two versions indicating another agency problem however generics markup advantages are short lived which limits their impact on increasing generic adoption additionally state dependence and heterogeneous doctor preferences affected generics adoption policy makers can target these factors to improve static efficiency

a selectivity model of household food marketing behavior in sub saharan africa the agricultural household s discrete decision of whether to participate in coarse grain markets is separated here from the continuous decision of how much to sell or buy conditional on participation failure to participate in markets results from high fixed transactions costs a selectivity model endogenously switches households into alternative market participation states correcting for bias caused by the exclusion of unobservable variables affecting both discrete and continuous decisions improved market information increases the probability of participation by sellers while access to cereals processing technology increases quantities transacted by both sellers and buyers conditional on participation

endogeneity and heterogeneity in a probit demand model estimation using aggregate data two issues that have become increasingly important while estimating the parameters of aggregate demand functions to study firm behavior are theendogeneity of marketing activities typically price andheterogeneity across consumers in the market under consideration ignoring these issues in the estimation of the demand function parameters can lead to biased and inconsistent estimates for the effects of marketing activities endogeneity and heterogeneity have achieved prominence in large measure because of the increasing popularity of logit models to characterize demand functions usingaggregate data the logit model accounts for purchase incidence and brand choice by including a no purchase alternative in the consumer s choice set this allows for category sales to change as a function of the marketing activities of brands in the category there are three issues with using the logit model with the no purchase option to characterize demand when studying competitive interactions among firms 1 the marketing literature dealing with brand choice behavior at the consumer level has found that the iia restriction is not appropriate as each brand in the choice set is more similar to some brands than it is to others 2 studies have found that the purchase incidence decision is distinct from the brand choice decision hence it may not be appropriate to model the no purchase decision as just another alternative in the choice set with the iia restriction holding across all brands and the no purchase option 3 even if the distinction between the purchase incidence and brand choice decisions is accounted for via for example a nested logit specification accounting for the purchase incidence decision with aggregate data requires assumptions for computing the share of the no purchase alternative which is otherwise unobserved in this paper we propose a probit model as an alternative to the logit model to specify the aggregate demand functions of firms competing in oligopoly markets the probit model avoids the iia property that affects the logit model at the individual consumer level furthermore the probit model can naturally account for the distinction between the purchase incidence and brand choice decisions due to the general covariance structure assumed for the utilities of the alternatives we demonstrate how the parameters of the proposed model can be estimated using aggregate time series data from a product market in the estimation we account for the endogeneity of marketing variables as well as for heterogeneity across consumers our results indicate that both endogeneity as well as heterogeneity need to be accounted for even after allowing for a non iia specification at the individual consumer level specific to our data we also find that ignoring endogeneity has a bigger impact on the estimated price elasticities than ignoring the effects of heterogeneity a comparison of the elasticities obtained from the probit model with those from the corresponding logit specification indicates that therange of elasticities obtained from the probit model across brands is larger than that obtained from the logit the results have implications for issues such as firm level pricing in addition to specifying a probit model and providing comparisons with the logit model the paper also addresses the third issue raised above we propose a simple alternative to the purchase incidence brand choice specification by decomposing the demand for a brand into a category demand equation and a conditional brand choice share equation we provide a comparison of results from this specification to those from the specification that includes the no purchase alternative and find that estimated elasticities are sensitive to the specification used we also estimate the demand function parameters using a traditional specification such as the double logarithmic model here we find that the estimated elasticities could be signed in such a manner as to be not useful for firm level pricing decisions one of the key limitations of the proposed model is that while it accounts for the purchase incidence and brand choice decisions of households it does not account for differences across consumers in their purchase quantities the model and analysis are best suited for product categories in which consumers typically make single unit purchases another limitation is more practical in nature while recent advances have been made in computing probit probabilities it could nevertheless be a challenge to do so when the number of alternatives is large

increasing returns and market efficiency in agricultural trade abstract using detailed trader surveys in benin madagascar and malawi this paper investigates the presence of increasing returns in agricultural trade after analyzing margins costs and value added we find little evidence of returns to scale motorized transport is found more cost effective for large loads on longer distances but transporters appear to pool quantities from multiple traders margin rates show little relationship with transaction size personal travel costs are a source of increasing returns but the effect is small consequently total marketing costs are nearly proportional to transaction size working and network capital are key determinants of value added constant returns to scale in all accumulable factors working capital labor and network capital cannot be rejected this implies that policies to restrict entry into agricultural trade are neither necessary nor useful governments should focus instead on technological and institutional innovations to upgrade agricultural markets

a comparison of sales response predictions from demand models applied to store level versus panel data in order to generate sales promotion response predictions marketing analysts estimate demand models using either disaggregated consumer level or aggregated store level scanner data comparison of predictions from these demand models is complicated by the fact that models may accommodate different forms of consumer heterogeneity depending on the level of data aggregation this study shows via simulation that demand models with various heterogeneity specifications do not produce more accurate sales response predictions than a homogeneous demand model applied to store level data with one major exception a random coefficients model designed to capture within store heterogeneity using store level data produced significantly more accurate sales response predictions as well as better fit compared to other model specifications an empirical application to the paper towel product category adds additional insights this article has supplementary material online

an exogeneity test for a simultaneous equation tobit model with an application to labor supply a test of weak exogeneity in the simultaneous equation tobit model is proposed and illustrated using a female labour supply model estimated using cross section data the test statistic can be simply output from any standard tobit maximum likelihood package and is asymptotically efficient the procedure provides consistent estimators for the simultaneous tobit model whose asymptotic covariance matrix is a simple extension of the usual tobit formula we also provide the lagrange multiplier test of weak exogeneity this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item