quick job entry or long term human capital development the dynamic effects of alternative training schemes this study evaluates and compares the eectiveness of two alternative training schemes for the unemployed short job search oriented training and long human capital oriented training we investigate the impact dynamics of these pro grams considering both unemployment and employment duration our analysis uses a rich administrative longitudinal data set for germany where both programs were implemented at the same time our estimation strategy flexibly accounts for dy namic selection on observables and unobservables as well as heterogeneous treatment eects the results indicate that short term training schemes can be an eective tool to reduce unemployment in the long run in particular if participation occurs early during unemployment long term training schemes increase the average du ration of employment spells more strongly than short term training however they increase the expected unemployment duration if they are started early during un employment this negative short run impact of long term training is an important driver of its overall eectiveness

the long run effects of unemployment monitoring and work search programs experimental evidence from the united kingdom this article examines the long run effects of the restart unemployment program in the united kingdom the program aimed at the long term unemployed involved a combination of tighter monitoring of benefit eligibility rules and increased job search assistance we compare the employment behavior of a treatment group who participated in the scheme with that of a randomly chosen control group for whom participation was delayed while there is little evidence of a long term benefit for women the unemployment rate among males in the treatment group was six percentage points lower than that of the control group 5 years after the initial experiment

nonmonetary effects of the financial crisis in propagation of the great depression this paper examines the effects of the financial crisis of the 1930s onthe path of aggregate output during that period our approach is complementary to that of friedman and schwartz who emphasized the monetary impact of the bank failures we focus on non monetary primarily credit related aspects of the financial sector output link and consider the problems of debtors as well as those of the banking system we argue that the financial disruptions of 1930 33 reduced the efficiency of the credit allocation process and that the resulting higher cost and reduced availability of credit acted to depress aggregate demand evidence suggests that effects of this type can help explain the unusual length and depth of the great depression this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

banking development socioeconomic structure and income inequality abstract using rich unique data from the italian local credit markets provinces this paper investigates the impact of local banking development on income inequality and the role of the socioeconomic structure in this link exploiting the italian historical banking regulation to instrument for the local presence of bank branches we find that local banking development mitigates income inequality however the finance inequality nexus manifests itself only in relatively advanced areas when we study the structural channels of influence we uncover evidence that banking development can reduce inequality by affecting geographical mobility and urbanization while it has modest effects through the development of material infrastructures and human capital

the finance growth nexus evidence from bank branch deregulation this paper provides evidence that financial markets can directly affect economic growth by studying the relaxation of bank branch restrictions in the united states we find that the rates of real per capita growth in income and output increase significantly following intrastate branch reform we also argue that the observed changes in growth are the result of changes in the banking system improvements in the quality of bank lending not increased volume of bank lending appear to be responsible for faster growth

the regional financial sector a scottish case study dow s c 1992 the regional financial sector a scottish case study reg studies 26 619 631 the regional finance literature suggests that financial market segmentation may affect regional economic activity but that the uk financial sector is sufficiently integrated to rule out this effect this paper attempts to broaden the scope of the debate by considering the credit creating behaviour of the banking sector together with the interdependent financial behaviour of all other sectors in a region it is concluded that financial behaviour in this broad sense affects regional activity even in an integrated national financial market in particular financial integration may adversely affect the allocation of new credit to a peripheral region the argument is assessed by considering the scottish case dow s c 1992 le secteur financier regional cas d etude de l ecosse reg studies 26 619 631 la documentation relative au secteur financier regional laisse supposer que la segmentation du marche finan

financial intermediation and endogenous growth an endogenous growth model with multiple assets is developed agents who face random future liquidity needs accumulate capital and a liquid but unproductive asset the effects of introducing financial intermediation into this environment are considered conditions are provided under which the introduction of intermediaries shifts the composition of savings toward capital causing intermediation to be growth promoting in addition intermediaries generally reduce socially unnecessary capital liquidation again tending to promote growth

the estimation of models of labour market behaviour in this paper we view the labour market experience of individuals as a process of movement between the states of employment and unemployment we note that there are three main ways of sampling members of the labour force namely sampling the members of a specific state sampling the people entering or leaving a state and sampling the population regardless of state the joint distribution of observable and unobservable characteristics of individuals depends on the mode of sampling adopted we examine this dependence and its implications for the interpretation of estimates of models of labour market behaviour

does early child care affect children s development we study how early child care ecc affects children s development in a marginal treatment effect framework that allows for rich forms of observed and unobserved effect heterogeneity exploiting a reform in germany that induced school districts to expand ecc at different points in time we find strong but diverging effects on children s motor and socio emotional skills children who were most likely to attend ecc benefit in terms of their motor skill development children who were least likely to attend ecc gain in terms of their socio emotional skill development especially boys and children from disadvantaged families such as those with low education or migration backgrounds simulating expansions of ecc we find that a moderate expansion fosters motor skills for all children and language skills for boys and immigrant children a progressive expansion of ecc improves all children s socio emotional development but neither their motor skills nor their language skills

the real costs of credit access evidence from the payday lending market using geographic differences in the availability of payday loans i estimate the real effects of credit access among low income households payday loans are small high interest rate loans that constitute the marginal source of credit for many high risk borrowers i find no evidence that payday loans alleviate economic hardship to the contrary loan access leads to increased difficulty paying mortgage rent and utilities bills the empirical design isolates variation in loan access that is uninfluenced by lenders location decisions and state regulatory decisions two factors that might otherwise correlate with economic hardship measures further analysis of differences in loan availability over time and across income groups rules out a number of alternative explanations for the estimated effects counter to the view that improving credit access facilitates important expenditures the results suggest that for some low income households the debt service burden imposed by borrowing inhibits their ability to pay important bills copyright 2011 oxford university press

discretionary policy and multiple equilibria in lq re models we study discretionary equilibria in dynamic linear quadratic rational expectations models in contrast to the assumptions that pervade this literature we show that these models do have multiple equilibria in some situations we demonstrate the existence of multiple discretionary equilibria by example we investigate general properties of discretionary equilibria and discuss implications for numerical algorithms

local financial development and household welfare in vietnam evidence from a panel survey we examine the impact of local financial development on household welfare in vietnam we employ household level panel data for the periods 2007 2008 2010 and 2013 covering three provinces and mea

the regional transmission of uk monetary policy dow s c and montagnoli a 2007 the regional transmission of uk monetary policy regional studies 41 797 808 concerns have been raised in the media about a one size fits all monetary policy for the uk if there are diverse economic conditions in different regions then a unitary monetary policy cannot suit all the purpose of this paper is to explore this issue further by breaking it down into two separate issues first there is the more conventional way of considering the question in terms of the effect of a particular interest rate change on regions experiencing different economic conditions this requires a consideration of the nature and causes of regional economic disparities in the uk and how these might be affected by particular interest rate changes but there is further the question of how monetary policy is transmitted to the different regions the possibility is considered that there may be regional differences in how a particular monetary policy is translated into different financial

regional monetary policy an australian perspective fraser p macdonald g a and mullineux a w regional monetary policy an australian perspective regional studies a structural vector autoregressive svar model for australia is utilized to identify the domestic impacts of common monetary policy shocks on national and state business cycles and to consider the role of state diversification disparities for observed differences in responses to monetary policy innovations western australia and queensland differ to other states in their response to common shocks and evidence suggests this may be due to differences in their economic geographies overall the australian monetary union has become increasingly reliant on fiscal transfers particularly from western australia in the past two decades this emphasizes the importance of a political union underpinning a successful monetary union

evaluating the impacts of washington state repeated job search services on the earnings of prime age female tanf recipients this paper uses an unbalanced panel dataset to evaluate how repeated job search services jss and other personal characteristics affect the quarterly earnings of the prime age female welfare recipients in the state of washington we propose a joint dependent framework for the probability of employment and potential earnings or hours or hourly wage rates to facilitate the investigation of the issues of joint determination of employment and potential earnings and to allow for factors to have different impacts on employment status and on quarterly earnings we have also suggested formulae to compute the dynamic impact of jss on duration and earnings both the maximum likelihood ml and semi parametric estimates are provided we find that the results are sensitive to the choice of models and estimation methods for a randomly assigned individual the first second and three or more jss raised the short run and long run earnings by 5 0 0 and 1 0 0 respectively based on the mle and by 56 6 36 2 36 9 and 50 7 36 2 36 9 respectively based on the semi parametric tobit model we have also conducted specification analysis the results appear to favor semi parametric type ii tobit model estimates copyright 2007 john wiley sons ltd

personal bankruptcy and credit supply and demand this paper examines how personal bankruptcy and bankruptcy exemptions affect the supply and demand for credit while generous state level bankruptcy exemptions are probably viewed by most policy makers as benefiting less well off borrowers our results using data from the 1983 survey of consumer finances suggest that they increase the amount of credit held by high asset households and reduce the availability and amount of credit to low asset households conditioning on observable characteristics thus bankruptcy exemptions redistribute credit toward borrowers with high assets interest rates on automobile loans for low asset households also appear to be higher in high exemption states

regulation and preemptive technology adoption two rival firms must decide if and when to adopt a new technology knowing how adoption costs decline over time and how profit flows vary with adoption patterns in many cases price and entry regulations beneficially slow technology adoption by making preemption strategies less attractive in some cases these regulations can so discourage a firm from preemption as to change the order in which firms adopt new technologies speeding one firm s adoption date and slowing the other s in the context of a particular scenario for cable and telephone companies adoption of new fiber optic technologies the case for lifting the cross ownership ban depends on the extent to which telephone companies are able to implement a superior technology reregulation of cable companies strengthens this case

duration dependence versus unobserved heterogeneity in treatment effects swedish labor market training and the transition rate to employment summary the effect of a treatment on the hazard rate of a duration outcome may depend on the elapsed time since treatment in addition treatment effects may be heterogeneous across agents the former gives rise to duration dependence of the treatment effect whereas unobserved heterogeneity gives rise to spurious duration dependence of the observable hazard rate we develop a model allowing for duration dependence and unobserved heterogeneity in the treatment effect the model incorporates a timing of events model and allows for selectivity on unobservables we prove identification exploiting variation in the timing of treatment and outcome in the application we analyze the effects of the swedish vocational employment training program on the individual transition rate from unemployment to work we demonstrate the appropriateness of the approach by studying the enrollment process the data cover the population and include multiple unemployment spells for many individuals the results indicate a large significantly positive effect on exit to work shortly after exiting the program the effect at the individual level diminishes after some weeks when taking account of the time spent in the program the effect on the mean unemployment duration is small copyright 2012 john wiley sons ltd

secondary job holding in germany since 2003 the number and ratio of multiple jobholders has more than doubled although the german labour market has been experiencing a strong and sustained upswing this study analyses multiple j

bank competition and firm creation we investigate the effects of competition in the financial sector on the creation of firms in the nonfinancial sector explicitly allowing for heterogeneous effects across borrowers characterized by different degrees of asymmetric information we find evidence of a bell shaped relationship between bank competition and firm creation in addition consistently with theories arguing that competition may reduce the availability of credit to informationally opaque firms we find that bank competition results less favorable to the emergence of new firms in industrial sectors where informational asymmetries are more important

the effects of welfare to work program activities on labor market outcomes studies examining welfare to work program effectiveness present mixed and sometimes discrepant findings partly due to research design data and methodological limitations using administrative data on missouri and north carolina welfare recipients we substantially improve on past estimation approaches to identify the distinct effects of each state s welfare to work subprograms assessment job search assistance and job readiness training and more intensive programs designed to augment human capital more intensive training is associated with greater initial earnings losses but also greater long run earnings gains the negative program impacts we observe in quarters immediately following participation turn positive by the second year after participation

business cycles and the relationship between concentration and price cost margins using a newly constructed panel data base we examine changes in price cost margins in 284 manufacturing industries between 1958 and 1981 a key finding is a dramatic narrowing of the spread between the margins of concentrated and unconcentrated industries over this period we provide evidence that this narrowing is a result of the greater sensitivity of price cost margins in more concentrated industries to demand fluctuations this finding is robust to the inclusion of other industry variables and to measures of import competition the results indicate that cross sectional estimates of the concentration margins relationship are likely to be both biased and misleading

the role of social capital in financial development to identify the effect of social capital on financial development we exploit social capital differences within italy in high social capital areas households are more likely to use checks invest less in cash and more in stock have higher access to institutional credit and make less use of informal credit the effect of social capital is stronger where legal enforcement is weaker and among less educated people these results are not driven by omitted environmental variables since we show that the behavior of movers is still affected by the level of social capital of the province where they were born

an evaluation of the swedish system of active labour market programmes in the 1990s we investigate the presence of short and long term effects from joining a swedish labor market program vis a vis more intense job search in open unemployment overall the impact of the program system is found to have been mixed joining a program has increased employment rates among participants a result robust to a misclassification problem in the data on the other hand it has also allowed participants to remain significantly longer on unemployment benefits and more generally in the unemployment system this being particularly the case for those entitled individuals entering a program around the time of their unemployment benefits exhaustion

interest rates and convergence across italian regions dow s montagnoli a and napolitano o interest rates and convergence across italian regions regional studies the purpose of this paper is to investigate the evidence for economic convergence across italian regions using trends in interest rate spreads and premia as indicators of regional credit conditions the results indicate the presence of persistent interest rate differentials and thus an absence of convergence across the twenty political regions but a high degree of convergence is observed within the four macroeconomic areas dow s montagnoli a and napolitano o 20 dow s montagnoli a et napolitano o les taux d interet et la convergence a travers les regions italiennes regional studies a partir des tendances des marges d interet sur les credits et des primes sur les taux d interet comme indicateurs des conditions de credit regionales cet article cherch

the growth and geographical anatomy of venture capitalism in the united kingdom martin r l 1989 the growth and geographical anatomy of venture capitalism in the united kingdom reg studies 23 389 403 the 1980s have seen the emergence and rapid growth of venture capitalism in the uk this paper examines this growth both in terms of the spatial organization of the venture capital industry and the regional distribution of venture capital investment the picture that emerges is of an industry which is over centralized in the london area and which in the course of its recent development has tended to concentrate investment in the already more prosperous southeastern and adjacent parts of the country while local venture capital markets are beginning to become established in northern britain it will be some time before the existing regional imbalance is likely to be redressed martin r l 1989 la croissance et la distribution geographique du capital risque au royaume uni reg studies 23 389 403 les annees 1980 ont temoigne de la naissance et de l essor du capital risque au

how does the benefit effect vary as unemployment spells lengthen summary this paper investigates how the effect of income while unemployed on the probability of an individual leaving unemployment varies with the length of time that the individual has been unemployed we examine this question in the context of a variety of alternative econometric models we extend the proportional hazards model with unrestricted baseline hazard to one in which there are unrestricted effects of a subset of the explanatory variables and also consider models that can be estimated as series of binary response models the proportional hazard restrictions are rejected for the sample of british unemployed men analysed and in the binary sequence framework logit and probit models based on symmetric distributions dominate in likelihood terms the extreme value form model implied by extension of the proportional hazards formulation logit models with a flexible form for the duration dependence which also incorporate unobserved heterogeneity in a flexible way are estimated the results for all formulations indicate a rapidly declining effect of unemployment income as a spell lengthens with no significant effect for the long term unemployed the preferred specifications which allow for omitted heterogeneity indicate no significant effect after about 5 months and this result is robust to the inclusion or exclusion of previous labour market experience variables and to the choice of mixing distribution

the impact of being offered and receiving classroom training on the employment histories of disadvantaged women evidence from experimental data we address two questions using experimental data on disadvantaged women first what is the impact of being offered jtpa classroom training on the duration of unemployment and employment second what is the effect of actually participating in this training on the length of such spells belonging to the treatment group shortens unemployment spells but has no effect on employment spells actually participating in training has a larger positive effect on the exit rate from unemployment than the effect of simply being a member of the treatment group ignoring the endogeneity of actual training in estimation substantially underestimates its effect

benefit duration unemployment duration and job match quality a regression discontinuity approach summary we use a sharp discontinuity in the maximum duration of benefit entitlement to identify the effect of extended benefit duration on unemployment duration and post unemployment outcomes employment stability and re employment wages we address dynamic selection which may arise even under an initially random assignment to treatment estimating a bivariate discrete time hazard model jointly with a wage equation and correlated unobservables owing to the non stationarity of job search behavior we find heterogeneous effects of extended benefit duration on the re employment hazard and on job match quality our results suggest that the unemployed who find a job close to and after benefit exhaustion experience less stable employment patterns and receive lower re employment wages compared to their counterparts who receive extended benefits and exit unemployment in the same period these results are found to be significant for men but not for women copyright 2012 john wiley sons ltd

monitoring job offer decisions punishments exit to work and job quality unemployment insurance systems include the monitoring of unemployed workers and punitive sanctions if job search requirements are violated we analyze the causal effect of sanctions on the ensuing job quality notably on wages and occupational level we use swedish data and estimate duration models dealing with selection on unobservables we also develop a theoretical job search model that monitors job offer rejection versus job search effort the empirical results show that after a sanction the wage rate is lower and individuals move more often to a part time job and a lower occupational level incurring human capital losses

assessing the employment effects of vocational training using a one factor model matching estimators use observed variables to adjust for differences between groups to eliminate sample selection bias when minimum relevant information is not available matching estimates are biased if access to data on usually unobserved factors that determine the selection process is unavailable other estimators should be used this study advocates the one factor control function estimator that allows for unobserved heterogeneity with factor loading technique treatment effects of vocational training in sweden are estimated with mean and distributional parameters and then compared with matching estimates the results indicate that unobservables slightly increase the treatment effect for those treated

law finance and firm growth we investigate how differences in legal and financial systems affect firms use of external financing to fund growth we show that in countries whose legal systems score high on an efficiency index a greater proportion of firms use long term external financing an active though not necessarily large stock market and a large banking sector are also associated with externally financed firm growth the increased reliance on external financing occurs in part because established firms in countries with well functioning institutions have lower profit rates government subsidies to industry do not increase the proportion of firms relying on external financing the corporate finance literature suggests that market imperfections caused by conflicts of interest and informational asymmetries between corporate insiders and investors constrain firms in their ability to fund investment projects the magnitude of these imperfections depends in part on the effectiveness of the legal and financial systems because these systems differ across countries the literature implies that there should exist systematic cross country differences in firms ability to obtain external capital to finance investment in this paper we examine whether the underdevelopment of legal and financial systems does prevent firms in some countries from investing in potentially profitable growth opportunities in particular we focus on the use of long term debt or external equity to fund growth see our earlier work demirgut kunt and maksimovic 1996a which compares firms financial structures in developed and developing countries and finds the greatest difference to be in the provision of long term credit we estimate a financial planning model to obtain the maximum growth rate that each firm in our thirty country sample could attain without access to long term financing we then compare these predicted growth rates to growth rates realized by firms in countries with differing degrees of development in their legal and financial systems our approach enables us to identify specific characteristics of the legal and financial systems that are associated with long term financing of firm growth thus we provide a micro level test of the hypoth

selection bias demographic effects and ability effects in common value auction experiments inexperienced women along with economics and business majors are much more susceptible to the winner s curse as are subjects with lower sat act scores there are strong selection effects in bid function estimates for inexperienced and experienced subjects due to bankruptcies and bidders who have lower earnings returning less frequently as experienced subjects these selection effects are not identified using standard econometric techniques but are identified through experimental treatment effects ignoring these selection effects leads to misleading estimates of learning

in work benefits in the united states the earned income tax credit the earned income tax credit eitc is or soon will be the largest cash or nearcash benefit provided to low income households in the united states the eitc is a credit on the federal income tax available to working poor families with children in i994 the credit equals 26 3 of earned income wages salaries self employment income and farm income for taxpayers with one child up to an earned income of 7 750 hence the maximum benefit is 2 038 for families with one child because benefits increase with earned income up to a certain point the eitc seems to encourage work and therefore is a popular antipoverty programme taxpayers with one child and incomes above 7 750 but below i i ooo receive the maximum benefit taxpayers with one child whose incomes exceed i i ooo are in the phase out range of the credit their 2 038 credit is reduced by i5 98 cents for every dollar of income earned over and above i i ooo taxpayers with two or more children are entitled to a slightly larger credit 2 528 or 30o0 0 of 8 425 which is phased out at a i 7p68 0 rate a small credit of at most 306 was available to childless taxpayers betnween the ages of 25 and 64 for the first time in i 994 unlike most credits and deductions in the federal individual income tax system the eitc is refundable that is if the amount of the credit exceeds what the taxpayer owes he or she receives a payment from the us treasury for the difference the eitc was adopted in i975 and was originally promoted as a way to relieve the burden of the social security payroll tax on low wage working parents 2 the original eitc equaled io 0 of earnings up to a maximum credit of 400 for taxpayers with children and was phased out at a rate of io cents per dollar of earnings or adjusted gross income whichever was higher for incomes between 4 ooo and 8 ooo the eitc has been increased many times since i975 though the largest changes occurred in i990 and i993 in i996 when the i993 legislative changes are fully phased in the credit rate will be 40 0 of earnings for families with two or more children and 34 0 for families

the employment dynamics of disadvantaged women evidence from the sipp understanding the employment dynamics of disadvantaged families is increasingly important we estimate duration models describing these dynamics for disadvantaged single mothers and use them to conduct a rich set of counterfactual analyses we use a misreporting model to correct for seam bias the problem that too many transitions are reported between reference periods in panel data we find effects of demographics minimum wages unemployment rates and maximum welfare benefits but not policy changes introduced through state welfare waivers on employment dynamics we find that two commonly used ad hoc methods of addressing seam bias perform substantially worse than our approach

undermining the financial basis of regions the spatial structure and implications of the uk pension fund system martin r and minns r 1995 undermining the financial basis of regions the spatial structure and implications of the uk pension fund system reg studies 29 125 144 regional growth theory and regional policy traditionally focus on the process of industrial development relatively little is known about the flows of money and financial capital that shape that development this paper examines the spatial organization and implications of the uk pension fund system one of the principal circuits of financial capital in the national economy it is shown how the great bulk of pension fund contributions that originate right across the various regions of the uk are channelled into and controlled by financial institutions in the south east of the country moreover those funds are then invested primarily back into companies and organizations located or headquartered in the south east this spatially centralized system pursues liquidity rather than productive investment and little of the money trickles down to

youth employment policies in france abstract in this paper we present a summary of recent microeconometric results on the evaluation of the effects of active labor market policies on youth employment in france we focus our discussion on three types of policies 1 youth employment schemes for out of employment and low skilled young adults 2 on the job training schemes 3 payroll tax subsidies for minimum wage workers training programs for unemployed young workers have in general no effects on post training wages or employment probabilities except if they have a large training content in contrast the reduction of labor costs have significant effects on employment probabilities of low wage workers however their effects appear to be stronger for workers between 25 and 30

do only tax incentives matter labor supply and demand responses to an unusually large and salient tax break abstract i explore labor supply responses to an unusually large and salient notch generated by the mini job program in germany using administrative data i document three findings first despite the unusually large magnitude of incentives earnings elasticities are modest even after accounting for frictions second the observed response cannot be fully attributed to labor supply alone rather the observed outcomes are highly dependent on the availability of jobs and so are strongly influenced by labor demand incentives third i show that these firm incentives are likely driven by the fact that mini job workers receive lower fringe benefit payments

bayesian estimation and smoothing of the baseline hazard in discrete time duration models this paper proposes a bayesian approach for estimating and smoothing the baseline hazard in a discrete time hazard model the hazard model is specified as a multiperiod probit model and estimated using a gibbs sampler with data augmentation the baseline hazard specification is smoothed using the smoothness priors introduced by shiller 1973 the methods proposed in this paper are then used to study the effect of canadian unemployment insurance eligibility rules on employment durations from new brunswick canada

identifying effect heterogeneity to improve the efficiency of job creation schemes in germany previous empirical studies of job creation schemes in germany have shown that the average effects for the participating individuals are negative however we find that this is not true for all strata of the population identifying individual characteristics that are responsible for the effect heterogeneity and using this information for a better allocation of individuals therefore bears some scope for improving programme efficiency we present several stratification strategies and discuss the occurring effect heterogeneity our findings show that job creation schemes do neither harm nor improve the labour market chances for most of the groups exceptions are long term unemployed men in west and long term unemployed women in east and west germany who benefit from participation in terms of higher employment rates

the effectiveness of qualification measures for employed workers an evaluation study for saxony this article investigates whether and to what extent employment policy measures co financed by the european social fund in germany meet their objective specifically it is analysed whether qualification programs for employed workers in the german state of saxony were effective in terms of employment protection to this end a control function approach is implemented which utilizes a unique firm level dataset this model explicitly accounts for unobserved heterogeneity between participating and nonparticipating companies by modelling the participation decision process our results suggest a positive effect of program participation however this positive treatment effect varies considerably across different sub groups of the treatment as well as the comparison group

the impact of the self sufficiency project on the employment behaviour of former welfare recipients the self sufficiency project ssp was a canadian randomized trial in which the program group had 12 months to find full time employment in order to qualify for a subsidy that roughly doubled their pre tax earnings for the next three years we find evidence of significant impacts of ssp on non employment and employment durations for the treated group simulation results show an impact on the employment rate at 52 months after random assignment in the range of 7 to 11 percentage points this is approximately a 25 increase in the employment rate compared with having no treatment

bank firm relationships and allocative efficiency in northeastern and central italy and in the south abstract we make two contributions on the extent and impact of relationship banking based on close and long lasting bank firm customer relationships in the three sub systems in which italy may be subdivided first we show that relationship banking is more extensive in both sub systems where small businesses prevail the fast growing northeast and center nec and the south the marginal area of dependent development second we demonstrate that relationship banking improves the allocation of credit in the nec but worsens it in the south this evidence suggests that relationship banking may be beneficial or detrimental depending on the socio economic structure

domestic savings and intra national capital flows abstract regional british data on savings and investment are shown to be uncorrelated consistent with the hypothesis of perfectly mobile intra national capital flows

information shocks and the empirical evaluation of training programs during unemployment spells we study the role of notifications in the evaluation of training programs for unemployed workers using a unique administrative data set containing the dates when information is exchanged between job seekers and caseworkers we address three questions do information shocks such as notification of future training have an effect on unemployment duration what is the joint effect of notification and training programs on unemployment can ignoring information shocks lead to a large bias in the estimation of the effect of training programs we discuss these issues through the lens of a job search model and then conduct an empirical analysis following a random effects approach to deal with selectivity we find that notification has a strong positive effect on the training probability but a negative one on the probability of leaving unemployment this attraction effect highlights the importance of accounting for notifications in the evaluation of active labor market policies

work incentives and in work benefit reforms a review in work benefit reforms seek to reduce poverty and promote employment among low income families using evidence from similar policies in the usa and canada this paper reviews the likely impact of recent uk reforms the focus is on employment and hours in particular the paper examines the effectiveness of the new working families tax credit in the uk in increasing employment among low income families it presents evidence suggesting modest increases in employment for single parents and workerless married couples with children but with some offsetting reductions in employment in two earner couples with young children

is there a unit root in the inflation rate evidence from sequential break and panel data models summary using sequential trend break and panel data models we investigate the unit root hypothesis for the inflation rates of thirteen oecd countries with individual country tests we find evidence of stationarity in only four of the thirteen countries the results are more striking with the panel data model we can strongly reject the unit root hypothesis both for a panel of all thirteen countries and for a number of smaller panels consisting of as few as three countries the non rejection of the unit root hypothesis for inflation is very fragile to even a small amount of cross section variation 1997 john wiley sons ltd

evaluating the german mini job reform using a natural experiment increasing work incentives for people with low income is a common topic in the policy debate across european countries the mini job reform in germany had a similar motivation we carry out an ex post evaluation to identify the short run effects of this reform our identification strategy uses an exogenous variation in the interview months in the socio economic panel study soep which allows us to distinguish groups that are affected by the reform from those who are not to account for seasonal effects we additionally use a difference in differences did strategy descriptives show that there is a post reform increase in the number of mini jobs however we show that this increase cannot be causally related to the reform since the short run effects are very limited only single men seem to react immediately and increase secondary job holding

finance and the sources of growth the authors evaluate whether the level of development in the banking sector exerts a causal impact on economic growth and its sources total factor productivity growth physical capital accumulation and private saving they use 1 a pure cross country instrumental variable estimator to extract the exogenous component of banking development and 2 a new panel technique that controls for country specific effects and endogeneity they find that banks do exert a large causal impact on total factor productivity growth which feeds through to overall gdp gross domestic product growth the long run links between banking development and both capital growth and private savings are more tenuous

does local financial development matter we study the effects of differences in local financial development within an integrated financial market we construct a new indicator of financial development by estimating a regional effect on the probability that ceteris paribus a household is shut off from the credit market by using this indicator we find that financial development enhances the probability an individual starts his own business favors entry of new firms increases competition and promotes growth as predicted by theory these effects are weaker for larger firms which can more easily raise funds outside of the local area these effects are present even when we instrument our indicator with the structure of the local banking markets in 1936 which because of regulatory reasons affected the supply of credit in the following 50 years overall the results suggest local financial development is an important determinant of the economic success of an area even in an environment where there are no frictions to capital movements

financial development and economic growth views and agenda this critique argues that the preponderance of theoretical reasoning and empirical evidence suggests a positive first order relationship between financial development and economic growth the body of work would push even most skeptics toward the belief that the development of financial markets and institutions is a critical and inextricable part of the growth process and away from the view that the financial system is an inconsequential sideshow responding passively to economic growth many gaps remain however and the paper highlights areas in acute need of additional research

nonparametric instrumental variable methods for dynamic treatment evaluation we develop a nonparametric instrumental variable approach for the estimation of average treatment effects on hazard rates and conditional survival probabilities without model structure we derive constructive identification proofs for average treatment effects under noncompliance and dynamic selection exploiting instrumental variation taking place during ongoing spells we derive asymptotic distributions of the corresponding estimators this includes a detailed examination of noncompliance in a dynamic context in an empirical application we evaluate the french labor market policy reform pare which abolished the dependence of unemployment insurance benefits on the elapsed unemployment duration and simultaneously introduced additional active labor market policy measures the estimated effect of the reform on the survival function of the duration of unemployment duration is positive and significant neglecting selectivity leads to an underestimation of the effects in absolute terms