temporal stability of risk attitudes and the impact of adverse shocks a panel data analysis from thailand and vietnam summary exogenous negative shocks and intrinsic risk attitudes are two important elements characterizing the vicious cycle of poverty associated with rural households in developing countries recent empirical studies suggest that adverse shocks a key driver of poverty can trigger substantial changes in the risk attitudes of poor people leading to decisions that perpetuate their lives in poverty although the temporal variability of risk attitudes is a controversial topic the literature advocating the temporal variability of risk attitudes suggests that covariate shocks such as natural disasters alter risk attitudes over time whereas idiosyncratic shocks show no such significant impact this paper aims to test the temporal stability of risk attitudes in rural households in thailand and vietnam to determine whether this pattern covariate shocks that affect risk attitudes and idiosyncratic shocks that do not can be confirmed for these households i use an exogenous measure of shocks to explain temporal variation in risk attitudes thus i estimate variation in consumption using a multilevel model in which variation in consumption at the individual level serves as a proxy for idiosyncratic shocks while variation in consumption at the aggregate level is used to measure covariate shocks my study finds temporal variability in risk attitudes that is driven by covariate shocks in vietnam and in contrast to past research by idiosyncratic shocks in thailand the results suggest that vietnamese respondents may be better in insuring idiosyncratic risks for example through safety nets while mutual insurance across individuals does not seem to work well in thailand in addition results indicate that the mutual insurance problem in thailand seems to increase in wealth the differences that i find between thailand and vietnam and across poverty types correspond to the difference in political systems and consequently the focus of socio political measures thailand s recent political volatility and the growing lack of social cohesion in thai society support these findings

credit market constraints consumption smoothing and the accumulation of durable production assets in low income countries investments in bullocks in india in this paper we formulate and estimate a finite horizon structural dynamic model of agricultural investment behavior that incorporates the major features of low income agricultural environments income uncertainty constraints on borrowing and rental markets and the use of investment assets to generate income and smooth consumption the model is fit to longitudinal indian household data on farm profits bullock stocks and pump sets the estimated structural parameters are used to assess the effects on the life cycle accumulation of bullocks agricultural profits and welfare associated with complete markets and bullock liquidity and with second best policies that provide assured sources of income to farmers and weather insurance

credit rationing in an open economy this paper claims that credit market imperfections matter significantly to open economies and can alter basic macroeconomic results this is demonstrated in the paper by use of an open economy model with individual credit rationing due to asymmetric information and moral hazard the paper concentrates on the effect of fiscal policy and shows that when credit is rationed the standard result does not hold and a fiscal expansion may create a surplus instead of a deficit in the current account furthermore the paper shows that whether credit is rationed or not depends on the tax burden copyright 1991 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

individual risk attitudes measurement determinants and behavioral consequences this paper studies risk attitudes using a large representative survey and a complementary experiment conducted with a representative subject pool in subjects homes using a question asking people about their willingness to take risks in general we find that gender age height and parental background have an economically significant impact on willingness to take risks the experiment confirms the behavioral validity of this measure using paid lottery choices turning to other questions about risk attitudes in specific contexts we find similar results on the determinants of risk attitudes and also shed light on the deeper question of stability of risk attitudes across contexts we conduct a horse race of the ability of different measures to explain risky behaviors such as holdings stocks occupational choice and smoking the question about risk taking in general generates the best all round predictor of risky behavior

estimating households vulnerability to idiosyncratic and covariate shocks a novel method applied in madagascar households in developing countries are frequently hit by severe idiosyncratic and covariate shocks leading to high consumption volatility a household s currently observed poverty status might therefore not be a good indicator of the household s general vulnerability to poverty in the recent years there has been an emerging literature on the concept and empirical analysis of vulnerability but because of strong data requirements for vulnerability analysis and limited availability of panel and shock data for developing countries static poverty analysis still dominates empirical vulnerability studies in this paper we propose a simple method to empirically assess the impact of idiosyncratic and covariate shocks on households vulnerability which can be applied in a wide context as it relies on more commonly available cross sectional or short panel data we empirically illustrate our approach for madagascar we show that covariate shocks have a relatively higher impact on rural households whereas idiosyncratic shocks have a relatively higher impact on urban households vulnerability

fiscal policies in the world economy this paper uses a two country general equilibrium model of the world economy in order to analyze the effects of budget deficits and government spending on world rates of interest consumption and international indebtedness it demonstrates the difference between the effects of fiscal expenditures and tax cuts as well as between the effects of current policies and expected future policies it is shown that the qualitative effects of fiscal policies depend on whether the country introducing the policies runs a surplus or a deficit in its current account following the positive analysis of the short run and the steady state effects the paper concludes with a normative analysis of the welfare implications of budget deficits

using the downside mean semideviation for measuring vulnerability to poverty abstract this paper introduces a new approach for measuring vulnerability to poverty using the standard downside mean semideviation as a risk parameter we identify vulnerability by comparing the uncertain outcomes of household well being with poverty line in a mean risk behavior framework

revisiting the effects of imf programs on poverty and inequality investigating how lending programs of the international monetary fund imf affect poverty and inequality we explicitly address model uncertainty we control for endogenous selection into imf programs using data on 86 low and middle income countries for the 1982 2009 period and analyze program effects on various poverty and inequality measures the results rely on averaging over 90 specifications of treatment effect models and indicate adverse short run effects of imf agreements on poverty and inequality for the whole sample while for a 2000 2009 subsample the results are reversed there is evidence that significant short run effects might disappear in the long run author s abstract

liquidity profiles of poor mexican households summary buffer stock savings theories predict that more vulnerable households build up liquid savings in order to cope with income variability using data from 1801 marginalized mexican households this paper examines how household liquidity levels vary by income level and use of banking the paper finds strong evidence of buffer stock savings in poor and vulnerable households it also shows that membership in a financial cooperative is a determinant of higher household liquidity levels financial instruments are used more to confront idiosyncratic shocks than systemic shocks idiosyncratic shocks and remittances are important determinants of liquidity levels in unbanked households

vulnerability of victims of civil conflicts empirical evidence for the displaced population in colombia summary internal conflicts and the forced displacement often caused by such conflicts impose a heavy burden on the civilian population and greatly damage a community s overall welfare the present study employs a household level survey administered to 2 322 colombian displaced households to estimate changes in household welfare after displacement and to assess aggregate consumption levels in destination sites we also assess whether households are able to smooth consumption and we analyze the strategies they are compelled to adopt in order to cope our results indicate that victims of civil conflict face difficulties in generating income are unable to rely on usual risk sharing mechanisms and are forced to draw upon costly coping strategies in order to smooth consumption the vulnerability of displaced households and the possibility of falling into poverty traps highlight the need to design and implement specific policies for victims of internal conflict in order to cope with the displacement shock

risk sharing networks and insurance against illness most risk sharing tests on developing country data are conducted at the level of the village generally the full risk sharing hypothesis is rejected this paper uses detailed data on all insurance networks within a village in tanzania networks are not clustered but largely overlapping we test whether full risk sharing occurs within these networks while village level full insurance cannot be rejected for food consumption we find evidence consistent with at least partial insurance of non food consumption via networks

fiscal policy and the real exchange rate under risk abstract this paper examines the effect of fiscal expansions on the real exchange rate in a small open economy where home and foreign assets are imperfect substitutes there is an hypothesis raised by sachs and wyplosz 1984 dornbusch and fischer 1986 and others that risk and imperfect substitutability of assets can explain why fiscal expansions sometimes create real depreciations unlike the standard mundell fleming result this paper examines the issue within an optimizing framework where risk and imperfect capital mobility are explicitly modeled the paper comes up with the conclusion that even when assets are imperfect substitutes and a fiscal expansion crowds out investment and consumption this crowding out is not full and the real exchange rate always appreciates

educational mismatch and promotions to managerial positions a test of the career mobility theory abstractcareer mobility theory suggests that given a certain occupation schooling improves upward mobility in terms of promotion and wage growth we are the first to test the implications of this theory for over and undereducation by means of direct information about promotions to managerial positions using german administrative data entailing an employer reported and hence objective measure of educational requirements we show that overeducated workers are indeed more likely to be promoted and that this career mobility advantage is more pronounced in the early stages of their working lives by contrast undereducated workers are less likely to be promoted to managerial positions moreover in terms of wage growth while overeducated workers benefit more undereducated workers benefit less from promotions than their well matched educational peers altogether these findings strongly support the career mobility theory furthermore by differentiating between internal and external promotions we prov

vulnerability and poverty dynamics in vietnam drawing upon the vietnam household living standards survey vhlss data that cover the whole of vietnam in 2002 and 2004 ex ante measures of vulnerability are constructed these are then compared with static indicators of poverty i e the headcount ratio in a particular year detailed analyses of the panel data show that i in general vulnerability in 2002 translates into poverty in 2004 ii vulnerability of the poor tends to perpetuate their poverty and iii sections of the nonpoor but vulnerable slip into poverty durable reduction in poverty is conditional on i accurate identification of the vulnerable ii their sources of vulnerability and iii design of social safety nets that would enable the vulnerable to reduce risks and cope better with rapid integration of markets with the larger global economy

violence and risk preference experimental evidence from afghanistan we investigate the relationship between violence and economic risk preferences in afghanistan combining i a two part experimental procedure identifying risk preferences violations of expected utility and specific preferences for certainty ii controlled recollection of fear based on established methods from psychology and iii administrative violence data from precisely geocoded military records we document a specific preference for certainty in violation of expected utility the preference for certainty which we term a certainty premium is exacerbated by the combination of violent exposure and controlled fearful recollections the results have implications for risk taking and are potentially actionable for policymakers and marketers

simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity i study a simple widely applicable approach to handling the initial conditions problem in dynamic nonlinear unobserved effects models rather than attempting to obtain the joint distribution of all outcomes of the endogenous variables i propose finding the distribution conditional on the initial value and the observed history of strictly exogenous explanatory variables the approach is flexible and results in simple estimation strategies for at least three leading dynamic nonlinear models probit tobit and poisson regression i treat the general problem of estimating average partial effects and show that simple estimators exist for important special cases copyright 2005 john wiley sons ltd

measuring chronic poverty without a panel abstract a new method of decomposing cross sectional poverty estimates into chronic and transient components is demonstrated using data from a recent household survey in papua new guinea this method is simpler than previously used panel methods because it does not require data on every household in every period the only requirement is that a subset of the surveyed households have a repeat observation made on their welfare indicator some time after the initial observation in the setting considered the chronic and transient components of headcount poverty are roughly equal while three quarters of the mean poverty gap is transient in the sense of being due to within year fluctuations in expenditures

capital goods imports the real exchange rate and the current account conventional aggregate models of open economies typically rule out trade in capital goods but capital goods account for a major share of the world trade in 1990 they represented more than 40 percent of u s merchandise exports and more than 30 percent of its imports in the same year capital goods imports represented an average of roughly 30 of total imports for 82 industrial and developing countries and almost 9 percent of their gdp this report shows that the presence of imported capital goods greatly changes the short and long run effects of macoreconomic policies and external shocks on key macroeconomic variables using a rational expectations aggregate model with intertemporally optimizing agents and with trade in both consumption and capital goods it finds that the long run equilibrium of the economy displays a negative relationship between the real exchange rate and real output that is a real appreciation is associated with an increase in long run output and the capital stock with investment subject to adjustment costs the response to unanticipated permanent disturbances involves a changing real exchange rate and a non zero current account the author analyzes the macroeconomic consequences of changes in fiscal policy and of transfers of wealth from abroad he show that both have well defined long run effects on the capital stock and real output fiscal expansion in particular may have a long run crowding in effect on investment by constrast the impact of disturbances on the current account is ambiguous the author shows that it depends critically on the degree of intertemporal substitutability in both consumption and investment with the latter measured by the magnitude of investment adjustment costs

trade liberalisation and poverty what are the links this paper asks whether a developing country s own trade liberalisation could translate into increased poverty and what information would be required to identify whether it will do so it plots the channels through which such effects might operate identifying the static effects via four broad groups of institutions households distribution channels factor markets and government and the dynamic issues of volatility long term economic growth and short term adjustment stresses an increase in the price of something a household sells labour good service increases its welfare thus the paper first explores the likely effects of trade liberalisation on the prices of goods and services taking into account the distribution sector also critical is whether trade reform creates or destroys markets trade reform is also likely to affects factor prices of which the wages of the unskilled is the most important for poverty purposes if reform boosts the demand for labour intensive products it boosts the demand for labour and wages and or employment will increase however not all developing countries are relatively abundant in unskilled labour and trade can boost demand for semi skilled rather than unskilled labour hence poverty alleviation is not guaranteed trade reform can affect tariff revenue but much less frequently and adversely than is popularly imagined even if it does it is a political decision not a law of nature that the poor should suffer the resulting new taxes or cuts in government expenditure opening up the economy can reduce risk and variability because world markets are usually more stable than domestic ones but sometimes it will increase them because stabilisation schemes are undermined or because residents switch to riskier activities the non poor can generally tide themselves over adjustment shocks from a liberalisation so public policy should focus on whether the initially poor and near temporary setbacks the key to sustained poverty alleviation is economic growth there is little reason to fear that growth will not boost the incomes of the poor similarly while the argument that openness stimulates long run growth has still not been completely proven there is every presumption that it will

risk crop choice and savings evidence from tanzania rural households engaged in agricultural activities face considerable risks in their income process these income risks are especially important if they result in consumption fluctuations this is likely if insurance and credit markets are absent one possible strategy for household is to take up low risk activities even if they imply lower returns such response cannot be viewed independently from the other options available to households to reduce consumption fluctuations this paper focuses on the importance of liquid asset formation for risk taking behaviour by households an intertemporal model of consumption under liquidity constraints is developed in which households can choose between income activities with different returns and riskiness it shows that if liquid asset holdings are large providing a buffer for consumption shortfalls then households will be more willing to take up high risk activities evidence based on survey data from shinyanga district tanzania is presented consistent with this prediction this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

overeducation undereducation and the theory of career mobility the theory of career mobility sicherman and galor journal of political economy 98 1 169 92 1990 claims that wage penalties for overeducated workers are compensated by better promotion prospects sicherman journal of labour economics 9 2 101 22 1991 was able to confirm this theory in an empirical study using panel data however the only retest using panel data so far robst eastern economic journal 21 539 50 1995 produced rather ambiguous results in the present paper random effects models to analyse relative wage growth are estimated using data from the german socio economic panel it is found that overeducated workers in germany have markedly lower relative wage growth rates than adequately educated workers the results cast serious doubt on whether the career mobility model is able to explain overeducation in germany the plausibility of the results is supported by the finding that overeducated workers have less access to formal and informal on the job training which is usually foun

the economics of poverty traps and persistent poverty empirical and policy implications the moral and economic imperatives to intervene in poverty traps motivate the identification of poverty traps and their structural causes so as to inform the design of appropriate policy responses however empirical identification remains challenging because of poverty traps complexity after reviewing mechanisms that can generate poverty traps we focus on one multiple financial market failures emphasising its heretofore underappreciated testable implications including specific behaviours that are rational only in the presence of a poverty trap we therefore recommend tests for these behaviours rather than more econometrically challenged efforts to directly test for poverty traps in estimated asset dynamics

income smoothing and consumption smoothing one way that risk averse households protect consumption levels is to borrow and use insurance mechanisms another way common in low income economies is to diversify economic activities and make conservative production and employment choices households thus tend toward limiting exposure only to shocks that can be handled with available credit and insurance typically both types of mechanisms are studied independently but much more can be learned by studying them together first we obtain a more complete picture of risks costs and insurance possibilities second it opens the way to considering biases in standard tests of credit and insurance

the poor stay poor household asset poverty traps in rural semi arid india summary although identifying household level poverty dynamics would have important implications for poverty reduction policies empirical evidence is still scant this paper employs a novel semiparametric panel data estimator that combines the advantages of estimation methods in the existing literature and applies it to a uniquely long panel data set to examine poverty dynamics in three villages in rural semi arid india structural immobility is pervasive the currently poor are likely to remain poor suggesting a structural poverty trap while all households face static asset holdings higher castes larger landholders and more educated households are significantly less likely to be poor

a theory of career mobility this paper analyzes theoretically and empirically the role and significance of occupational mobility in the labor market focusing on individuals careers it provides additional dimensions to the analysis of investment in human capital wage differences across individuals and the relationships among promotions quits and interfirm occupational mobility it is shown that part of the returns to education is in the form of higher probabilities of occupational upgrading within or across firms given an origin occupation schooling increases the likelihood of occupational upgrading furthermore workers who are not promoted despite a high probability of promotion are more likely to quit

wealth weather risk and the composition and profitability of agricultural investments despite the growing evidence that farmers in low income environments are risk averse there has been little empirical evidence on the importance of risk in shaping the actual allocation of production resources among farmers differentiated by wealth the authors use panel data on investments in rural india to examine how the composition of productive and nonproductive asset holdings varies across farmers with different levels of total wealth and across farmers facing different degrees of weather risk income variability is a prominent feature of the experience of rural agents in low income countries the authors report evidence based on measures of rainfall variability that the agricultural investment portfolio behavior of farmers in such settings reflects risk aversion due evidently to limitations on consumption soothing mechanisms such as crop insurance or credit markets the authors results suggest that uninsured weather risk is a significant cause of lower efficiency and lower average incomes a one standard deviation decrease in weather risk measured by the standard deviation of the timing of the rainy season would raise average profits by up to 35 percent among farmers in the lowest wealth quartile moreover rainfall variability induces a more unequal distribution of average incomes for a given distribution of wealth wealthier farmers are willing to absorb significant risk without giving up profits to reduce production risk smaller farmers have to invest their limited wealth in ways that reduce their exposure to risk at the cost of lower profit rates the authors found that at high levels of rainfall variability differences in rates of profit per unit of agricultural assets were similar across classes of wealth but over the sample range of rainfall variability these rates of profit were always higher for the poorer farmers than for the wealthier ones suggesting that the disadvantages of small farmers in risk diffusion are more than offset by their labor cost advantage

optimal partial group liability in microfinance lending abstract this paper develops a model of group borrowing that incorporates partial group liability where borrowers are penalized if their group members default but are not held responsible for the entirety of the failed loan the model illustrates a trade off of group liability lending while higher levels of group liability increase within group risk sharing if liability is too high borrowers strategically default the model predicts the existence of an optimal partial liability that maximizes transfers between group members while avoiding strategic default consistent with this prediction loan officers from a large microfinance institution in southern mexico who rarely allow one group member to repay while the other defaults achieve substantially lower default rates than loan officers for whom the practice is commonplace or for those for whom it has never occurred structural estimation using repayment data suggests that while a partial liability below full liability may reduce default rates the incidence of strategic default is rare

shocks individual risk attitude and vulnerability to poverty among rural households in thailand and vietnam summary we examine whether the experience of shocks influences individual risk attitude we measure the risk attitude of more than 4 000 households in thailand and vietnam via a simple survey item the experience of adverse shocks which is typical for poor and vulnerable households is related to a higher degree of risk aversion even when controlled for a large set of socio demographic variables therefore shocks perpetuate vulnerability to poverty via their effect on risk attitude we extend this general finding to various categories of shocks and find differences between thailand and vietnam this suggests that risk coping strategies profit from case specific design

assessing farmers risk preferences and their determinants in a marginal upland area of vietnam a comparison of multiple elicitation techniques we examine the consistency of risk preference measures based on eight hypothetical elicitation methods and a lottery game applied to smallholder farmers in a marginal upland environment in vietnam using these measures we identify influencing factors of risk aversion via regression analysis whereby unlike previous studies we include several proxies of social capital such as social networks and norms data were collected from household heads and spouses separately in a random sample of 300 households although correlations between most of the various risk preference measures are all statistically highly significant most are weak on average respondents have a high degree of risk aversion and specific characteristics gender age idiosyncratic shocks education social norms network reliance with extended family and connections to local authorities are significant determinants of risk preferences across most elicitation methods whereas others the household s dependency ratio wealth and covariate shocks are significant in a few methods only the explanatory power of the models is limited indicating that other factors are likely to be of greater importance in determining risk preferences the results can help target safety nets encourage investments and lead to the development of more applicable methods for assessing risk preferences of smallholders in developing countries

job mismatches and career mobility does over education assist or hinder occupational advancement career mobility theory hypothesizes that over education leads to a higher level of occupational advancement and wage growth over time

is consumption insured against illness evidence on vulnerability of households to health shocks in rural ethiopia abstract low and volatile incomes and absence of well developed financial markets make consumption smoothing an important issue in low income countries based on the theory of full insurance and using 2 years of panel data this study examines the impact of illness on the consumption of rural households and the capacity of existing risk sharing mechanisms in insuring consumption against health shocks in the rural areas of ethiopia the results show that illness has a statistically significant negative impact on the stability of consumption and the capacity of households or existing intra and interhousehold risk sharing arrangements in insuring consumption against illness varies across different consumption items the regression results show that the hypothesis of consumption insurance cannot be rejected in the case of total food consumption implying that basic items that come from own production and from external sources gifts are better insured and insensitive to the illness of the head however the

optimal mismatch and promotions i introduction a substantial proportion of workers are employed in jobs for which they appear to be either overqualified or underqualified for instance using data from the panel study of income dynamics sicherman 1991 finds that 40 percent of his sample are overeducated and another 16 percent are undereducated rumberger 1987 reports similar values using data from the quality of employment surveys other studies which find substantial education mismatch include duncan and hoffman 1981 verdugo and verdugo 1989 and hersch 1991 and evidence that a single firm hires both under and overqualified workers is presented here this paper provides an explanation for why firms hire both overqualified and underqualified workers firms hire overqualified workers because these workers require less training for their initial positions such workers also form a pool from which promotions are made which lowers hiring costs for higher level positions within the firm workers accept positions for which they are overqualified to enhance their probability of promotion and because of search and mobility costs but if they fail to be promoted to a position that better matches their qualifications they are more likely to quit firms hire underqualified workers despite their longer training requirement since such workers are less likely to quit and provide continuity of the labor force over time thus contrary to job matching arguments that would explain these hires as a result of imperfect information hiring of seemingly mismatched workers is optimal and these matches are made with perfect information the model developed in this paper yields three testable hypotheses 1 training time for entry level jobs is inversely related to overqualification at the time of hire 2 workers who are overqualified on their current job are those who have failed to be promoted to a job which better matches their qualifications and such workers are more likely to quit and 3 workers overqualified at time of hire are more likely to be promoted to test these hypotheses i use new data collected for this purpose previous empirical research such as that cited above was restricted by data availability to examining only the match between education and the worker s current job thus the quality of the match with the worker s initial job and the match between worker qualifications other than education has gone unexplored however various worker characteristics in addition to education are often substituted for each other in determining a worker s qualification for a job thus i examine additional qualifications including the match between the worker s experience level of previous job and use of skills information on the match between the worker s qualifications and those required for the initial job with the employer is particularly important since entry level qualifications determine training time for the initial job as well as the likelihood of promotion further individual specific training time for the initial job is necessary but typically not available since data sets providing information on training such as the panel study of income dynamics and quality of employment surveys request information on training time for the average worker and not for the individual worker the data set reveals several interesting statistics qualification mismatch at hire is fairly common for this firm 29 percent of the sample report themselves overqualified for their first job with the firm while 13 percent report themselves as underqualified lateral intra firm mobility is common and occurs far more frequently than promotions workers in the sample average 1 3 promotions but four different jobs with the employer this suggests that the job matching process occurs not only by turnover but through intrafirm mobility consistent with the assumptions and implications of the model the empirical results indicate that workers who are overqualified at hire receive less training and more promotions and that workers overqualified for their current job are more likely to quit

expected poverty under risk induced welfare variability two of the most widely accepted stylised facts about agriculture in south asia sub saharan africa and elsewhere are that income is highly uncertain from one year to another and that deep and widespread poverty exists and yet there has been very little analysis of the joint problems of poverty and risk this paper offers a methodological approach to the issue of how risk affects poverty and applies it to household level data for dry areas of rural india the following questions are addressed under what conditions can one expect an increase in the riskiness of an income or consumption stream to increase poverty how should one measure the contribution of risk to poverty and what long term benefits in terms of reduced poverty can be expected from policies aimed at stabilising incomes of the poor such policies have been widely discussed in the indian subcontinent of late and their effect on rural

overeducation undereducation and asymmetric information in occupational mobility due to short term asymmetric information overeducated and undereducated workers are shown to have different optimal strategies in seeking upward occupational mobility into their next positions undereducated workers typically have other human capital strengths but these strengths are not marketable to outsiders overeducated workers typically have other human capital weaknesses that are not apparent to outsiders while their excess schooling is marketable in labour markets with dynamic asymmetric information this article presents empirical evidence showing that job tenure increases the probability of upward occupational mobility more if individuals are undereducated moreover the probability of finding upward occupational mobility is increased by overeducated workers engaging in firm switching this article also validates prior empirical studies finding overeducated workers more likely to self report engaging in firm switching activities and more likely to experience upward occupational mobility than o

overeducation in the labor market this article examines the reasons for the observed discrepancy between workers actual and required levels of schooling and the resulting differences in returns to schooling overeducated workers are found to be younger and to have lower amounts of on the job training than workers with the required level of schooling they also have higher rates of firm and occupational mobility characterized by movement of higher level occupations the findings suggest that overeducation can be explained by the trade off between schooling and other components of human capital and by the mobility patterns of overeducated workers

the impact of surplus schooling on earnings some additional findings this paper examines the impact of overeducation or surplus schooling on earnings overeducated workers are defined as those with educational attainments substantially above the mean for their specific occupations two models are estimated using data from the 1980 census though our models data and measure of overeducation are different from those used by rumberger 1987 our results are similar our results show that overeducated workers often earn less than their adequately educated and undereducated counterparts

risk taking behavior in the presence of nonconvex asset dynamics a growing literature on poverty traps emphasizes the links between multiple equilibria and risk avoidance however multiple equilibria may also foster risk taking behavior by some poor people we illustrate this idea with a simple analytical model in which people with different wealth and ability endowments make investment and risky activity choices in the presence of known nonconvex asset dynamics this model underscores a crucial distinction between familiar static concepts of risk aversion and forward looking dynamic risk responses to nonconvex asset dynamics even when unobservable preferences exhibit decreasing absolute risk aversion observed behavior may suggest that risk aversion actually increases with wealth near perceived dynamic asset thresholds although high ability individuals are not immune from poverty traps they can leverage their capital endowments more effectively than lower ability types and are therefore less likely to take seemingly excessive risks in general linkages between behavioral responses and wealth dynamics often seem to run in both directions both theoretical and empirical poverty trap research could benefit from making this two way linkage more explicit jel d81 o12 d90

household responses to economic and demographic shocks marginal logit analysis using indonesian data abstract we analyse the responses of indonesian households to demographic and economic shocks and examine how these responses vary in relation to the household s permanent income and the extent to which the shock is common across the community households respond in different ways to demographic and economic shocks economic shocks are more likely to result in a labour supply response from the household and this probability is further increased if the shock is common for rural households use of savings increases with permanent income the article also examines the role of the interviewer in influencing survey responses

a matter of relational style loan officer consistency and exchange continuity in microfinance social scientists have long considered what mechanisms underlie repeated exchange three mechanisms have garnered the majority of this attention formal contracts relational contracts and relationally embedded social ties although each mechanism has its virtues all three exhibit a common limitation an inability to fully explain the continuation and stability of intertemporal exchange between individuals and organizations in the face of change drawing on extensive quantitative data on approximately 450 000 microfinance loans made by a microfinance institution in mexico from 2004 to 2008 that include random assignment of loan officers this research proposes the concept of relational styles to help explain how repeated exchange is possible in the face of personnel change we define relational styles as systematically reoccurring patterns of interaction employed by social actors within and across exchange relationships in this paper between microfinance clients and loan officers we show that relati

poverty dynamics in brazilian metropolitan areas an analysis based on hulme and shepherd s categorization 2002 2011 abstract ever more sophisticated studies on the methodological approach and the conceptual scope of poverty have led to a consensus among scholars on the dynamic characteristic of this phenomenon in other words the existence of an in and out of privation movement of individuals and families within this context hulme and shepherd 2003 defined five groups according to the location of the punctual and average indicators of poverty vis a vis the poverty line this paper s objective is to adapt this typology to brazil using pme monthly job survey micro data for the 2002 2011 timeframe and the six brazilian metropolitan regions covered by pme as well as by estimating a multinomial logit investigate which family characteristics relate to a greater or lesser chance of belonging to each of the chronic and transitory poverty categories categorization allows observation that despite a sweeping across the board decline in the percentage of families in all poverty categories in the past decade those families always or usually poor display demographic socioeconomic access to and insertion into the labor market categories which differ from families in transitory poverty or classified as never poor moreover northeastern metropolitan regions salvador and recife have higher percentages of chronic or transitory poverty multinomial logit estimates make it possible to verify that families whose members have completed secondary schooling or college or hold a higher qualified occupation stand lesser chances of entering into or remaining in poverty results call for differentiating among poor families as they enter into or leave poverty which is tantamount to saying that the dynamics of poverty must be taken into account as public policies are drawn up

fiscal policy and foreign debt abstract this paper shows that an expansionary fiscal policy may have the consequence of either increasing or decreasing the level of foreign debt in the context of a two sector small economy that produces traded and nontraded goods the long run effect of a fiscal expansion depends on a measure of the relative capital intensity of the two productive sectors in addition to the composition of private and public spending the short run effect of a transitory fiscal expansion is critically influenced by the extent to which investment reacts to current and prospective profits