keeping up with the joneses who loses out when individuals compare themselves to those with the same wage rate status concerns keeping up with the joneses lead individuals to work who otherwise would have chosen not to and for them well being is a decreasing function of the wage rate

banking in computable general equilibrium economies abstract in this paper we develop a computable general equilibrium economy that models the banking sector explicitly banks intermediate between households and between the household sector and the government sector households borrow from banks to finance their purchases of houses and they lend to banks to save for retirement banks pool households savings and they purchase interest bearing government debt and non interest bearing reserves we use this structure to answer two sets of questions one normative in nature that evaluates the welfare costs of alternative monetary and tax policies and one positive in nature that studies the real effects of following a procyclical interest rate policy rule

capital controls and monetary policy in sudden stop economies abstract the dangers of high capital flow volatility and sudden stops have led economists to promote the use of capital controls as an addition to monetary policy in emerging market economies this paper studies the benefits of capital controls and monetary policy in a small open economy with financial frictions nominal rigidities and sudden stops without commitment the optimal monetary policy should sharply diverge from price stability the policymakers will also tax capital inflows in a crisis but such taxes may be welfare reducing with commitment capital controls involve a mix of current capital inflow taxes and future capital flow subsidies the optimal policy will never involve macro prudential capital inflow taxes or a departure from price stability whether or not commitment is available

capital inflows financial structure and housing booms we use a panel var to study the effect of shocks to capital inflows which are identified using sign restrictions on the housing market in oecd countries to explore how effects of these shocks change with the structure of the mortgage market and the degree of mortgage securitization we allow the var coefficients to vary with mortgage market characteristics our results indicate that capital inflow shocks have a significant and positive effect on real house prices real credit available to the private sector and real residential investment the responses of these variables are stronger in countries with more developed mortgage markets and in countries where securitization is allowed

the future of macroeconomics macro theory and models at the bank of england abstract the adoption as policy models by central banks of representative agent new keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models has been widely criticised including for their simplistic micro foundations at the bank of england the previous generation of policy models is seen in its 1999 medium term macro model mtmm instead of improving that model to correct its considerable flaws many shared by other non dsge policy models such as the federal reserve s frb us it was replaced in 2004 by the dsge based beqm though this clearly failed during and after the global financial crisis it was replaced in 2011 by the dsge compass complemented by a suite of models we provide a general critique of dsge models for explaining forecasting and policy analyses at central banks and suggest new directions for improving current empirical macroeconomic models based on empirical modelling broadly consistent with better theory rather than seeking to impose simplistic and unrealistic theory

policy intervention in debt renegotiation evidence from the home affordable modification program we evaluate the effects of the 2009 home affordable modification program hamp that provided intermediaries with sizable financial incentives to renegotiate mortgages hamp increased intensity of renegotiations and prevented a substantial number of foreclosures but reached just one third of its targeted indebted households this shortfall was in large part due to low renegotiation intensity of a few large intermediaries and was driven by intermediary specific factors exploiting regional variation in the intensity of program implementation by intermediaries suggests that the program was associated with a lower rate of foreclosures consumer debt delinquencies house price declines and an increase in durable spending

national macroprudential policies in the euro area flexibility vs supervision in this paper i shed some light on a much discussed topic in the policy debate should national macroprudential policies be supervised by a supranational entity in a monetary union to do so i develop a two country dsge monetary union model which i calibrate to the core and periphery regions of the euro area monetary policy is set by the ecb while macroprudential policies based on the loan to value ratio ltv are set nationally results show that given that the economy in the periphery is more leveraged macroprudential policies need to be more aggressive in that region i also find that when ltv policies are set independently in a non coordinated manner by each authority albeit being beneficial for both countries and for the union as a whole welfare gains are not as high as when they are coordinated and supervised by a separate body

monetary policy and investment dynamics evidence from disaggregate data we use disaggregated data on the components of private fixed investment pfi to estimate industry level responses of real investment and capital prices to unanticipated monetary policy the response functions derive from a restricted large scale var estimated over 1959 2007 our results point to significant cross sector heterogeneity in the behavior of pfi prices and quantities for assets belonging to the equipment category of fixed investment we find that quantities rather than prices absorb most of the fallout from a policy shock by contrast the price effects tend to be higher and the output effects lower for nonresidential structures

international business cycles and financial frictions abstract in this study i build a two country dsge model to investigate the impact of financial integration on business cycle co movements with financial frictions in this model the investor can borrow but faces a collateral constraint that is tied to the value of her capital and real estate holdings i show quantitatively that the degree of financial integration and real exchange rate adjustment are important for understanding business cycle synchronization under different types of shocks with the technology shock greater financial integration leads to lower cross country correlations while with the financial shock greater financial integration leads to stronger cross country correlations these findings are consistent with the empirical evidence from the literature

heterogeneous expectations boom bust housing cycles and supply conditions a nonlinear economic dynamics approach abstract we combine a standard stock flow housing market model incorporating explicit relationships between house prices the housing stock and the rent level with a parsimonious expectation formation scheme of housing market investors reflecting an evolving mix of extrapolative and regressive expectation rules the model results in a two dimensional discrete time nonlinear dynamical system based on realistic parameters the model is able to generate endogenous boom bust housing market dynamics with lasting periods of overvaluation and overbuilding we thus exploit our model to investigate how real forces in particular supply conditions interact with expectations driven housing market fluctuations

housing markets consumption and financial liberalisation in the major economies abstract this paper analyses the implications of relaxing credit restrictions in housing finance markets a theoretical model of the interaction of financial and housing markets and forward looking agents is developed the effects of financial liberalisation in the model are analysed and evidence from the u s a and u k on the impact of easing credit restrictions is presented estimates are also made of the degree to which credit restrictions may bind on households in those countries where the range of mortgage products on offer is still more limited than in the u k and u s a simulations are undertaken to gauge the effect on consumption saving and bequests of wealth of possible future convergence in national systems of housing finance

financial intermediation house prices and the welfare effects of the u s great recession abstract this paper quantifies the welfare costs of the great recession in the united states and their distribution between borrowing and saving households we use a calibrated dynamic general equilibrium model with shocks to aggregate income and to the financial intermediation sector the model matches the boom bust cycle in house prices the dynamics of household leverage and the increase in inequality of wealth observed in the u s after 2007 we find large welfare costs for financially constrained households the borrowers savers instead benefited from a redistribution of housing wealth due to the de leveraging of borrowers caused by the plunge in house prices this redistribution mechanism was exacerbated by the financial intermediation shock we also show that the welfare costs for borrowers would have been lower if aggregate leverage had remained at pre 2001 levels

the nature of precautionary wealth abstract this paper uses the panel study of income dynamics to provide some of the first direct evidence that wealth is systematically higher for consumers with predictably greater income uncertainty however the apparent pattern of precautionary wealth is not consistent with a standard parameterization of the life cucle model in which consumers are patient enough to begin saving for retirement early in life wealth is estimated to be far less sensitive to uncertainty than implied by that model instead our results suggest that over most of their working life time consumers behave in accordance with the buffer stock models of saving described in carroll 1992 1997 or deaton 1991 in which consumers hold wealth principally to insulate consumption against near term fluctuations in income

do central banks react to house prices we estimate the federal reserve s the bank of england s and the bank of japan s responses to house prices we show that generalized method of moments estimates of a taylor rule augmented with house prices are biased and dispersed we then use full information methods and estimate the policy rule together with a var for the nonpolicy variables these estimates are also biased we propose an alternative approach and estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model embedded with a monetary rule with a direct response to house prices we find that house prices played a separate role in the reaction functions of these central banks

requiem for the representative consumer aggregate implications of microeconomic consumption behavior macroeconomists pursuing microfoundations for aggregate consumption have generally adopted one of two approaches either to model microeconomic consumption behavior carefully and then to aggregate or to thoroughly understand the behavior of a representative consumer in general equilibrium then to introduce microeconomic risk and heterogeneity the broad conclusion from the bottom up approach has been that precautionary saving and microeconomic heterogeneity can profoundly change behavior stephen p zeldes 1989 angus s deaton 1991 christopher d carroll 1992 the broad conclusion from the top down approach has been that precautionary saving is of little importance in determining the aggregate capital stock s rao aiyagari 1994 per krusell and anthony a smith 1998 leading some economists to conclude that heterogeneity is unimportant for macroeconomic purposes this paper shows that while general equilibrium effects do imply that the aggregate magnitude of precautionary saving is modest nevertheless when a model with uninsurable idiosyncratic risk is modified so that it can match the key micro facts it produces behavior very different in important respects from that produced by the representative agent economy this leads to the conclusion that for many purposes the representative consumer model should be abandoned in favor of a model which matches key microeconomic facts this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

a method for taking models to the data abstract this paper develops a method for combining the power of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with the flexibility of a vector autoregressive time series model to obtain a hybrid that can be taken directly to the data it estimates this hybrid model via maximum likelihood and uses the results to address a number of issues concerning the ability of a prototypical real business cycle model to explain movements in aggregate output and employment in the postwar us economy the stability of the real business cycle model s structural parameters and the performance of the hybrid model s out of sample forecasts

a characterization of ramsey equilibrium abstract consider a perfect foresight equilibrium model with a single capital good a borrowing constraint and many infinitely lived households with fixed but different discount factors the steady state capital stock is held by the most patient household quart j econ 95 1980 375 382 econ j 38 1928 543 559 an example shows the total capital can exhibit an equilibrium cycle in contrast to the stability property of the one household case in the example only the most patient household saves and his income deceases in capital we give a condition implying income is increasing in capital and use it to show any equilibrium converges to the steady state

financial innovation the discovery of risk and the u s credit crisis abstract financial innovation and overconfidence about the risk of new financial products were key factors behind the 2008 u s credit crisis we show that a model with a collateral constraint in which learning about the risk of a new financial environment interacts with fisherian amplification produces a boom bust cycle in debt asset prices and consumption early realizations of a high borrowing ability regime turn agents optimistic about the persistence probability of this regime conversely the first realization of a low borrowing ability regime turns agents unduly pessimistic the model predicts large increases in household debt land prices and excess returns during 1998 2006 followed by a collapse

evaluation of biodiversity policy instruments what works and what doesn t w e review and confirm the claim that credible evaluations of common conservation instru ments continue to be rare the limited set of rigorous studies suggests that protected areas cause modest reductions in deforestation however the evidence base for payments for ecosystem services decentralization policies and other interventions is much weaker thus we renew our urgent call for more evaluations from many more biodiversity relevant locations specifically we call for a programme of research conservation evaluation 2 0 that seeks to measure how programme impacts vary by socio political and bio physical context to track economic and environmental impacts jointly to iden tify spatial spillover effects to untargeted areas and to use theories of change to characterize causal mechanisms that can guide the collection of data and the interpretation of results only then can we usefully contribute to the debate over how to protect biodiversity in developing countries

asset pledgeability and international transmission of financial shocks abstract this paper studies the international transmission of pledgeability shocks as the recent crisis involved a negative shock to the pledgeability of assets the paper develops a two country portfolio model with leveraged investors that incorporates this type of shock and a solution approach for the corresponding portfolio choice problem this approach captures the effect of pledgeability on asset risk premiums the paper finds that the equilibrium portfolios play a heightened role as transmission channels moreover by complementing the effect of productivity shocks under borrowing constraints the pledgeability shocks improve the fit of an otherwise standard international macroeconomic model for the g7 countries especially during crises

home is where the equity is mortgage refinancing and household consumption applying a permanent income model with exogenous liquidity constraints and mortgage behavior household refinancing when mortgage interest rates are historically high and rising a persistent empirical puzzle is explained using data from the panel study of income dynamics households experiencing an unemployment shock and having limited initial liquid assets to draw upon are shown to have been 25 more likely to refinance 1991 94 on average such liquidity constrained households converted over two thirds of every dollar of equity they removed into current consumption as mortgage rates plummeted 1991 94 producing an estimated expenditure stimulus of at least 28 billion

investment behavior observable expectations and internal funds we use earnings forecasts from securities analysts to construct a new measure of the neoclassical fundamentals that drive investment spending we find that investment responds significantly to our new measure of fundamentals but is insensitive to cash flow even for firms typically thought to be liquidity constrained these results have two key implications first fundamentals may be more important for investment spending than would be suggested by the results to date from investment q models second the positive cash flow effects obtained in such models may reflect a failure to control properly for fundamentals rather than the presence of financial constraints jel d92 e22

homeownership informality and the transmission of monetary policy cross country aggregate data exhibits a strong positive relationship between the size of the informal employment and aggregate homeownership rates we investigate this empirical observation using a cash in advance model with housing markets and argue that the rate of inflation is important in explaining the nexus between informality and homeownership rates specifically we uncover a novel monetary transmission mechanism and show that households with informal employment desire to economize on their short term cash usage and avoid periodic rental payments when i informality is associated with constrained business investment finance and ii inflation expectations are high our empirical and theoretical findings highlight an important interaction between the conduct of monetary policy and the performance of housing markets

habit formation in consumption and its implications for monetary policy models this paper explores a monetary policy model with habit formation for consumers in which consumers utility depends in part on current consumption relative to past consumption the empirical tests developed in the paper show that one can reject the hypothesis of no habit formation with tremendous condence largely because the habit formation model captures the gradual hump shaped response of real spending to various shocks the paper then embeds the habit consumption specication in a monetary policy model and nds that the responses of both spending and inflation to monetary policy actions are signicantly improved by this modication jel d12 e52 e43

inflation output variance trade offs and optimal monetary policy the author estimates the inflation output gap variance trade off faced by monetary policymakers in the united states for policymakers who care about deviations of inflation around target and output around potential the estimated trade off represents the optimal policy frontier given the structure of the economy policymakers can do no better than to attain weighted variances of inflation and output that lie on the frontier the author finds that the variance trade off becomes quite severe when the standard deviation of inflation or output drops much below 2 percent this suggests that approximately balanced responses to policy goals are consistent with reasonable preferences over inflation and output variability copyright 1997 by ohio state university press

mortgage debt consumption and illiquid housing markets in the great recession using a model with housing search endogenous credit constraints and mortgage default this paper accounts for the housing crash from 2006 to 2011 and its implications for aggregate and cross sectional consumption during the great recession left tail shocks to labor market uncertainty and tighter down payment requirements emerge as the key drivers an endogenous decline in housing liquidity amplifies the recession by increasing foreclosures contracting credit and depressing consumption balance sheets act as a transmission mechanism from housing to consumption that depends on gross portfolio positions and the leverage distribution low interest rate policies accelerate the recovery in housing and consumption

environmental policy when consumers value conformity abstract we present a model of consumer behaviour when consumers value conformity and examine the implications for environmental policy the model shares a feature set out in dasgupta et al 2016 of having a structure of preferences for conformity which induces a mass of consumers to adhere exactly to a norm level of consumption clumping however we extend our previous analysis by analysing the conditions for the existence and potential uniqueness of consumption norms in doing so we introduce threshold effects whereby individuals adhere to a norm only if sufficiently many others do so taken together these have striking implications for environmental policy in the case where the norm good generates pollution emissions clumping means many individuals will not change behaviour unless the norm changes while threshold effects plus clumping means that it may be hard to change a norm we show that the use of pigovian taxes to control behaviour may be either ineffective or welfare reducing and that the optimal pigovian tax will work only if it is above some threshold level there are parameter values for which quantity based injunctive policies raise welfare relative to no intervention while optimal pigovian taxes would lower welfare

indivisible labor and the business cycle abstract a growth model with shocks to technology is studied labor is indivisible so all variability in hours worked is due to fluctuations in the number employed we find that unlike previous equilibrium models of the business cycle this economy displays large fluctuations in hours worked and relatively small fluctuations in productivity this finding is independent of individuals willingness to substitute leisure across time this and other findings are the result of studying and comparing summary statistics describing this economy an economy with divisible labor and post war u s time series

technology shocks in the new keynesian model in the new keynesian model preference cost push and monetary shocks all compete with the real business cycle model s technology shock in driving aggregate fluctuations a version of this model estimated via maximum likelihood points to these other shocks as being more important for explaining the behavior of output inflation and interest rates in the postwar u s data these results weaken the links between the current generation of new keynesian models and the real business cycle models from which they were originally derived they also suggest that federal reserve officials have often faced difficult trade offs in conducting monetary policy

subprime borrowers securitization and the transmission of business cycles a growing literature i e jaffee lynch richardson and van nieuwerburgh 2009 acharya and schnabl 2009 argues that securitization improves financial stability if the securitized assets are held by capital market participants rather than financial intermediaries i construct a quantitative macroeconomic model with a novel specification for mortgage backed securities mbs to evaluate this claim my findings suggest that the existence of the securitization market stabilizes the economy under the condition that financial intermediaries do not engage in the acquisition of securitized assets in the presence of large negative housing preference shocks the drop in output in the first year after the shock is halved if subprime mbs are purchased by non financial agents rather than held by banks less

house prices borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle i develop a general equilibrium model with sticky prices credit constraints nominal loans and asset prices changes in asset prices modify agents borrowing capacity through collateral value changes in nominal prices affect real repayments through debt deflation monetary policy shocks move asset and nominal prices in the same direction and are amplified and propagated over time the financial accelerator is not constant across shocks nominal debt stabilises supply shocks making the economy less volatile when the central bank controls the interest rate i discuss the role of equity debt indexation and household and firm leverage in the propagation mechanism finally i find that monetary policy should not target asset prices as a means of reducing output and inflation volatility

the credit view old and new recent writings in the so called credit view focus on binding finance constraints of macroeconomic activity which arise from the incomplete substitutability of bank credit and from changes in borrowers net worth they criticize the standard approaches in the money view for not taking full account of the observable effects of monetary restrictions on real activity in this paper the new credit view is contrasted with older macroeconomic theories that placed special emphasis on the banks systemic potential to expand credit beyond planned saving the comparative discussion of the underlying arguments about bank behaviour about the non neutrality of credit money and about the transmission of monetary policy impulses reveals some shortcomings in the new view history helps moreover to set the conventional confrontations of the credit view and the money view in perspective jel classification b22 e32 e44 e51 e52

consumer behaviour with environmental and social externalities implications for analysis and policy in this paper we summarise some of our recent work on consumer behaviour drawing on recent developments in behavioural economics particularly linked to sociol ogy as much as psychology in which consumers are embedded in a social context so their behaviour is shaped by their interactions with other consumers for the purpose of this paper we also allow consumption to cause environmental damage analysing the social context of consumption naturally lends itself to the use of game theoretic tools we shall be con cernedwithtwowaysinwhichsocialinteractionsaffectconsumerpreferencesandbehaviour socially embeddedpreferences wherethebehaviourofotherconsumersaffectanindividual s preferences and hence consumption we consider two examples conspicuous consumption and consumption norms and socially directed preferences where people display altruistic behaviour our aim is to show that building links between sociological and behavioural eco nomic approaches to the study of consumer behaviour can lead to significant and surprising implications for conventional economic analysis and policy prescriptions especially with respect to environmental policy

should central banks respond to movements in asset prices in recent decades asset booms and busts have been important factors in macroeconomic fluctuations in both industrial and developing countries in light of this experience how if at all should central bankers respond to asset price volatility we have addressed this issue in previous work bernanke and gertler 1999 the context of our earlier study was the relatively new but increasingly popular monetary policy framework known as inflation targeting see e g bernanke and frederic mishkin 1997 in an inflation targeting framework publicly announced medium term inflation targets provide a nominal anchor for monetary policy while allowing the central bank some flexibility to help stabilize the real economy in the short run the inflation targeting approach gives a specific answer to the question of how central bankers should respond to asset prices changes in asset prices should affect monetary policy only to the extent that they affect the central bank s forecast of inflation to a first approximation once the predictive content of asset prices for inflation has been accounted for there should be no additional response of monetary policy to assetprice fluctuations in use now for about a decade inflationtargeting has generally performed well in practice however so far this approach has not often been stress tested by large swings in asset prices our earlier research employed simulations of a small calibrated macroeconomic model to examine how an inflation targeting policy defined as one in which the central bank s instrument interest rate responds primarily to changes in expected inflation might fare in the face of a boom and bust cycle in asset prices we found that an aggressive inflationtargeting policy rule in our simulations one in which the coefficient relating the instrument interest rate to expected inflation is 2 0 substantially stabilizes both output and inflation in scenarios in which a bubble in stock prices develops and then collapses as well as in scenarios in which technology shocks drive stock prices intuitively inflation targeting central banks automatically accommodate productivity gains that lift stock prices while offsetting purely speculative increases or decreases in stock values whose primary effects are through aggregate demand conditional on a strong policy response to expected inflation we found little if any additional gains from allowing an independent response of central bank policy to the level of asset prices in our view there are good reasons outside of our formal model to worry about attempts by central banks to influence asset prices including the fact that as history has shown the effects of such attempts on market psychology are dangerously unpredictable hence we concluded that inflationtargeting central banks need not respond to asset prices except insofar as they affect the inflation forecast in the spirit of recent work on robust control the exercises in our earlier paper analyzed the performance of policy rules in worst case discussants robert shiller yale university glenn rudebusch federal reserve bank of san francisco kenneth rogoff harvard university

the response of asset prices to monetary policy shocks stronger than thought standard macroeconomic theory predicts rapid responses of asset prices to monetary policy shocks small scale vector autoregressions vars however often find sluggish and insignificant impact effects using the same high frequency instrument to identify monetary policy shocks we show that a large scale dynamic factor model finds overall stronger and quicker asset price reactions compared to a benchmark var both on euro area and us data our results suggest that incorporating a sufficiently large information set is crucial to estimate monetary policy effects

greener than thou the political economy of fish ecolabeling and its local manifestations in south africa summary developing country governments and industries have been reluctant to support ecolabels fearing their potentially protectionist effects this reluctance has been countered by international organizations such as fao and ecolabel initiatives with assurances of transparency non discrimination and technical assistance the analysis of the marine stewardship council msc label shows that developing country fisheries and small scale ones in particular have been marginalized furthermore the msc certification of the hake industry in south africa illustrates that ecolabeling is sought in the context of competitive pressures and specific political economies not simply on the basis of value free science and systemic management this article concludes that developing country producers need dedicated systems of standards and verification procedures not only special flexibilities

home equity mobility and macroeconomic fluctuations how does a fall in house prices affect real activity this paper presents a business cycle model in which a decline in house prices reduces geographical mobility creating distortions in the labor market this happens because homeowners face declines in their home equity levels after which it becomes more difficult to provide the down payment required for a new mortgage loan unemployed homeowners therefore turn down job offers that would require them to move the model explains joint cyclical patterns in housing and labor market aggregates as well as the puzzling breakdown of the u s beveridge curve that occurred during 2009

green public procurement of certified wood spatial leverage effect and welfare implications certified and conventional products are not traditional substitute goods green public procurement stimulates certification globally but not in each region public procurement of the cheaper unsustainable product does not maximise welfare increasing the price premium for certified wood creates a trade barrier the high costs of forest certification exclude vulnerable producers

permanent income liquidity and expenditure on automobiles evidence from panel data several recent papers have tested the permanent income cum rational expectations hypothesis using data on nondurable or semidurable consumption we show how this approach can be extended to the case of durables an application to panel data on automobile expenditures reveals no evidence against the permanent income hypothesis this result is unchanged in subsamples segregated by family holdings of liquid assets

mortgage default in an estimated model of the u s housing market abstract this paper models the housing sector mortgages and endogenous default in a dsge setting with nominal and real rigidities we use data for the period 1981 2006 to estimate our model using bayesian techniques we analyze how an increase in risk in the mortgage market raises the default rate and spreads to the rest of the economy creating a recession in our model two shocks are well suited to replicate the subprime crisis and the great recession the mortgage risk shock and the housing demand shock next we use our estimated model to evaluate a policy that reduces the principal of underwater mortgages this policy is successful in stabilizing the mortgage market and makes all agents better off

the taylor rule and optimal monetary policy where it denotes the fed s operating target for the federal funds rate pt is the inflation rate measured by the gdp deflator yt is the log of real gdp and y t is the log of potential output identified empirically with a linear trend the rule has since been subject to considerable attention both as an account of actual policy in the united states and elsewhere and as a prescription for desirable policy taylor argues for the rule s normative significance both on the basis of simulations and on the ground that it describes u s policy in a period in which monetary policy is widely judged to have been unusually successful taylor 1999 suggesting that the rule is worth adopting as a principle of behavior here i wish to consider to what extent this prescription resembles the sort of policy that economic theory would recommend i consider the question in the context of a simple but widely used optimizing model of the monetary transmission mechanism which allows one to reach clear conclusions about economic welfare the model is highly stylized but incorporates important features of more realistic models and allows me to make several points that are of more general validity out of concern for the robustness of the conclusions reached the analysis here addresses only broad qualitative features of the taylor rule and attempts to identify features of a desirable policy rule that are likely to hold under a variety of model specifications

monetary policy and asset prices with belief driven fluctuations abstract we present a heterogeneous agents new keynesian model subject to a cost channel of monetary policy transmission constant turnover between long time traders and newcomers in market activities combined with restricted trading opportunities introduces a feedback from the stock market to real activity making stock prices non redundant for the business cycle we show that strict inflation targeting can lead to equilibrium indeterminacy even if the policy rule satisfies the taylor principle a belief driven shock to stock price generates relative volatilities of key financial variables which are very close to what is observed in u s data this result hints to the possibility that the financial instability witnessed since the mid to late 1990s was the result of waves of rational exuberance and pessimism in financial markets our analysis suggests that a mild response to stock prices in the central bank s policy rule can restore equilibrium determinacy and therefore rule out non fundamental volatility

optimal monetary and macroprudential policy in a currency union abstract the financial crisis proved strikingly that financial frictions play a crucial role for system risk and policymakers have overlooked financial stability the obvious candidate for addressing financial stability is macroprudential policy in this paper we study the optimal ramsey monetary and macroprudential policy mix in a currency union in the case of different kinds of aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks the monetary and macroprudential instruments are modeled as independent tools with a union wide macroprudential tool full stabilization on the aggregate level is possible but welfare losses due to fluctuations in relative variables prevail with country specific macroprudential tools full stabilization of shocks is always possible but as a rule not optimal evaluating the performance of different policy regimes shows that the additional welfare gains from having country specific macroprudential tools are small and vanish as the ability of the central bank to commit decreases

monetary policy housing rents and inflation dynamics in this paper we study the effect of monetary policy shocks on housing rents our main finding is that in contrast to house prices housing rents increase in response to contractionary monetary policy shocks we also find that after a contractionary monetary policy shock rental vacancies and the homeownership rate decline this combination of results suggests that monetary policy may affect housing tenure decisions own versus rent in addition we show that with the exception of the shelter component all other main components of the consumer price index cpi either decline in response to a contractionary monetary policy shock or are not responsive these findings motivated us to study the statistical properties of alternative measures of inflation that exclude the shelter component we find that measures of inflation that exclude shelter have most of the statistical properties of the widely used measures of inflation such as the cpi and the price index for personal consumption expenditures but have higher standard deviations and react more to monetary policy shocks finally we show that the response of housing rents accounts for a large proportion of the price puzzle found in the literature

the cost effectiveness of conservation payments international donors invest billions of dollars to conserve ecosystems in low income nations the most common investments aim to encourage commercial activities such as ecotourism that indirectly generate ecosystem protection as a joint product we demonstrate that paying for ecosystem protection directly can be far more cost effective although direct payment initiatives have imposing institutional requirements we argue that all conservation initiatives face similar challenges thus conservation practitioners would be well advised to implement the first best direct payment approach rather than a secondbest policy option an empirical example illustrates the spectacular cost savings that can be realized by direct payment initiatives

macroprudential policy and imbalances in the euro area abstract since its creation the euro area suffered from imbalances between its core and peripheral members this paper checks whether macroprudential policy applied to the peripheral countries could contribute to providing more macroeconomic stability in this region to this end we build a two economy macrofinancial model and simulate the effects of macroprudential policy regulating the loan to value ratio when the core and the periphery are exposed to asymmetric shocks we find that macroprudential policy is able to substantially lower the amplitude of credit and output fluctuations in the periphery however for the policy to be effective it should be decentralized very similar conclusions hold when welfare is considered as the optimality criterion

monetary policy and financial stability cross country evidence central banks may face challenges in achieving their price stability goals when financial stability risks are present there is however considerable heterogeneity among central banks with respect to how they manage these potential trade offs

discount rate heterogeneity and social security reform abstract as many countries consider the privatization of existing pay as you go social security systems the option to make participation in the new system voluntary may appeal to policy makers who need to obtain the political support of their workers a critical issue in evaluating such a reform and its economic consequences is the unobserved heterogeneity in households preferences for consumption this paper estimates the distribution of rates of time preference from the wealth data in the survey of consumer finances 1992 and a flexible life cycle model of consumption under income uncertainty the estimated distribution is then applied to a variety of reform proposals that incorporate a voluntary choice of how much to contribute to a dedicated retirement account and a rebate of the existing payroll tax that increases with the magnitude of the contribution the main finding is that an appropriate menu of reform plans can induce the voluntary buy out of 84 of existing payroll taxes at an immediate cost to national saving of less than 0 25 percentage point

on the role of technology shocks as a source of business cycles some new evidence i provide some new evidence that reinforces the conclusion in gal o 1999 that exogenous variations in technology play a very limited role if any as sources of the business cycle first i provide evidence that supports the identie cation of technology shocks proposed in that paper second i show that similar e ndings obtain when the same approach is implemented for the euro area using a newly available data set jel e32 e24

should i default on my mortgage even if i can pay experimental evidence abstract we study strategic default in the laboratory i e in a controlled experiment subjects are initially endowed with a house and a mortgage we use neutral wording in the experiment and must decide at each period in which their mortgage is alive among three options making the mortgage payment selling the house or walking away from their house and defaulting on their mortgage at each point in time we can observe whether defaulters can afford to make the mortgage payment and thus directly compute the number of strategic defaulters subjects default in the right periods and quite fast learn what they should consume we find experimental support for the double trigger hypothesis individuals faced with low income and low house prices are more likely to default we observe that subjects default less than optimal and this decision is significantly affected by social norm concerns in the context of the experiment individuals under consume in the first periods of life they are cautious when indebted both introducing a 50 probability of recourse and a responsible homeowner reward are very effective in preventing default in the lab especially by individuals receiving a bad shock to income when house prices are low

on the effectiveness of loan to value regulation in a multiconstraint framework models in the infinite horizon macro housing literature often assume that borrowers are constrained exclusively by the loan to value ltv ratio motivated by the swedish microdata i explore an alternative arrangement where borrowers are constrained by a collateral constraint and by a debt service to income ratio while stricter ltv limits are often considered as a measure to tackle the rise in household indebtedness i find that policy designed to lower the maximum permissible ltv ratio may actually leave the debt to gdp ratio unchanged and increase housing prices in equilibrium if borrowers are bound by two constraints at the same time

contracts and money why are contracts not fully indexed in a setting in which fully indexed contracts are feasible we find that when price level data are gathered with delay these contracts are not renegotiation proof the contracts that replace them entail a lower level of welfare for the parties to that contract they also imply that real variables respond to nominal shocks

voluntary eco labeling and the price premium international environmental organizations propose voluntary eco labeling as a market incentive to promote industry to operate in an ecologically sustainable and environmentally friendly manner a microeconomic analysis questions whether voluntary eco labeling will cause producer profits in a competitive industry to decline and whether eco labeling will necessarily generate different prices for labeled and unlabeled product using wood product as an example results identify conditions that may exist when firms lose profits even under a voluntary system and where existing production constraints may lead to a single price regardless of labeling

a qualitative meta synthesis of the benefits of eco labeling in developing countries eco labeling or environmental certification is often promoted as a regulatory instrument capable of incentivizing sustainable resource use even in the absence of stringent government environmental regulations despite slow uptake in developing countries and high producer costs a growing body of case study evidence suggests that producers benefit in varied ways from certification a qualitative meta synthesis approach is applied to this body of evidence in order to assess the type and extent of producer benefits reported in case studies of forest stewardship council fsc and marine stewardship council msc certification in developing countries while benefits from price premiums and market access appear to be limited less tangible benefits were more common including learning governance community empowerment and reputational benefits these benefits may justify the cost of certification

consumption and capital market imperfections an international comparison the excess sensitivity of consumption to current income fluctuations is higher in countries where consumers borrow less low levels of consumer debt can result either from capital market imperfections or from a low demand for loans the evidence suggests that the former view is more appropriate than the latter and thus supports the hypothesis that excess sensitivity may be attributed to liquidity constraints rather than to other factors copyright 1989 by american economic association

stock market wealth and consumption this paper explores the link between changes in the aggregate value of corporate stock and changes in consumer spending it presents data on the distribution of corporate stock ownership based on the 1998 survey of consumer finances it also uses time series evidence on the comovement of stock market wealth and various categories of consumer spending to calibrate the wealth effect it concludes that in the year after a change in stock market values consumer spending is likely to rise by between one and two cents for each dollar increase in the value of corporate stock