learning to believe in sunspots a number of authors have shown that competitive economies may possess sunspot equilibria that is rational expectations equilibria in which purely extrinsic uncertainty affects equilibrium prices and allocations 2 such results demonstrate that it does not require a lack of faith in the rationality of market participants to believe that competitive markets may be subject to purely speculative fluctuations driven solely by expectations 3 the mere existence of sunspot equilibria as solutions to a system of marketclearing conditions however might not be judged sufficient to indicate that competitive markets with rational participants could ever be subject to speculative instability the sunspot equilibria represent states of affairs in which agents act differently in the case of different realizations of the sunspot variable and it is rational for each agent to do so but it might be thought unlikely that the beliefs of all the participants in the market could ever come to be coordinated so as to bring about an equilibrium of that kind it is rational to believe that sunspots convey information about future states of affairs once the economy is in a sunspot equilibrium but why would rational agents ever begin to believe in such a thing so as to create the conditions under which the belief is rational in order to address such a question one must go beyond the mere statement of the conditions for equilibrium and discussion of what states of affairs satisfy them one must specify an explicit dynamic process according to which the beliefs of agents adjust when out of equilibrium any exercise of this kind is necessarily unsatisfactory as there is no univocal meaning for the postulate of rational behavior outside of an equilibrium it may well be the case that

monetary policy rule of thumb consumers and external habits a g7 comparison this paper extends the standard new keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model to agents who cannot smooth consumption i e spenders and are affected by external consumption habits although these assumptions are not new their joint consideration strongly affects some theoretical and empirical results addressed by the recent literature by deriving closed form solutions we identify different demand regimes and show that they are characterized by specific features regarding dynamic stability and monetary policy effectiveness we also evaluate our model by stochastic simulations obtained from the bayesian parameters estimates for the g7 economies from posterior impulse responses we address the empirical relevance of the different regimes and provide comparative evidence on the heterogeneity of monetary policy effects among countries

what went wrong the erosion of relative earnings and employment among young black men in the 1980s this paper shows a widening in black white earnings and employment gaps among young men from the mid 1970s through the 1980s earnings gaps increased most among college graduates and in the midwest while gaps in employment population rates grew most among dropouts we attribute the differential widening to shifts in demand for subgroups due to shifting industry and regional employment the falling real minimum wage and deunionization the growing supply of black to white workers that was marked among college graduates and to increased crime among dropouts the different factors affecting subgroups highlight the economic diversity of black americans

affirmative action and the racial wage gap among the many disturbing changes in the structure of wages in recent years the stagnation in the male racial wage gap may be the most disheartening race remains america s oldest and most persistent cause of social and economic disparity but many of us had been encouraged by the steady and significant economic progress since the second world war the recent stagnation challenges that optimism in this paper i attempt to identify the reasons why the wage stagnation took place many americans particularly those in the media and political arena believe they already know the reason according to them this stagnation is the predictable consequence of the affirmative action policies associated with the reagan administration one reason why many believe that the reagan era deserves principal responsibility for the racial stagnation is the belief that equal employment opportunity commission eeoc resources were gutted during this period eeoc inflation adjusted budgets grew almost 15 percent per year during the 1970 s while there was some slowdown in the last half of the decade constantdollar eeoc budgets expanded by 7 2 percent per year during the carter administration and almost 1 400 budgeted positions were added to the eeoc a growth of 50 percent between 1976 and 1980 there is no question that the reagan era witnessed an abrupt end to the growth in resources that would have taken place eeoc constant dollar budgets actually fell during this period and the number of positions declined by almost one thousand and as eeoc resources and personnel fell during the 1980 s so did the measurable outputs the sharp break in the 1980 s was not so much in the aggregate level of activity but in its composition and the resources available per case spurred by the passage of the age discrimination act in 1979 age came into its own during this decade starting with only 14 cases in the year after passage of the act the number of age cases rose at an astonishing pace to over 30 000 by 1992 even without this explosion in age related charges the significance of race was declining while the number of race charges increased by 10 percent after 1980 sex charges were expanding by 40 percent by 1992 only 40 percent of all cases involved race issues compared to 85 percent of all charges in 1970 and 61 percent in 1980 the declining importance of race in the eeoc s agenda reflects a more general dilution of race as the core civil rights labormarket concern since 1965 the road to equal rights has become very crowded the quest for racial justice was the clear moral force behind the civil rights act with women added in an unsuccessful attempt to scuttle the legislation subsequently hispanics have begun to rival blacks in their political clout and protected minority group status was extended to men over 40 those with a disability and gays the end result is that more than three quarters of today s labor force enjoy protected minority group status blacks are now a minority within the protected minority class which itself represents the majority

optimal constrained interest rate rules we show that if policymakers compute the optimal unconstrained interest rate rule within a taylor type class they may be led to rules that generate indeterminacy and or instability under learning this problem is compounded by uncertainty about structural parameters since an optimal rule that is determinate and stable under learning for one calibration may be indeterminate or unstable under learning under a different calibration we advocate a procedure in which policymakers restrict attention to rules constrained to lie in the determinate learnable region for all plausible calibrations and that minimize the expected loss computed using structural parameter priors subject to this constraint

racial discrimination in the labor market theory and empirics we review theories of race discrimination in the labor market taste based models can generate wage and unemployment duration differentials when combined with either random or directed search even when strong prejudice is not widespread but no existing model explains the unemployment rate differential models of statistical discrimination based on differential observability of productivity across races can explain the pattern and magnitudes of wage differentials but do not address employment and unemployment at their current state of development models of statistical discrimination based on rational stereotypes have little empirical content it is plausible that models combining elements of the search models with statistical discrimination could fit the data we suggest possible avenues to be pursued and comment briefly on the implication of existing theory for public policy jel j15 j31 j64 j71

monetary policy learning and the speed of convergence under the assumption of bounded rationality economic agents learn from their past mistaken predictions by combining new and old information to form new beliefs the purpose of this paper is to investigate how the policy maker by affecting private agents learning process determines the speed at which the economy converges to the rational expectation equilibrium i find that by reacting strongly to private agents expected inflation a central bank increases the speed of convergence and shortens the length of the transition to the rational expectation equilibrium i use speed of convergence as an additional criterion for evaluating alternative monetary policies i find that a fast convergence is not always desirable

the non optimality of proposed monetary policy rules under timeless perspective commitment abstract in a near canonical forward looking model the timeless perspective form of commitment typically provides outcomes that are on average superior to those resulting from discretion the specific condition that appears in the literature is however not optimal from the relevant perspective

equilibrium selection observability and backward stable solutions abstract the robustness of stability under learning to observability of exogenous shocks is examined regardless of observability assumptions the minimal state variable solution is robustly stable under learning provided the expectational feedback is not both positive and large while the nonfundamental solution is never robustly stable overlapping generations and new keynesian models are considered and concerns raised in cochrane 2011 2017 are addressed

how partisan voters fuel the influence of public information abstract i study sincere voting equilibria in elections with public information in a large poisson game in addition to rational voters the electorate is characterized by the presence of partisan voters who vote according to their ideological position i show that the set of public signals compatible with sincere voting becomes smaller as the number of partisan voters vanishes which suggests that when the number of partisan voters is small public information hardly manipulates voting decisions

information aggregation rationality and the condorcet jury theorem the condorcet jury theorem states that majorities are more likely than any single individual to select the better of two alternatives when there exists uncertainty about which of the two alternatives is in fact preferred most extant proofs of this theorem implicitly make the behavioral assumption that individuals vote sincerely in the collective decision making a seemingly innocuous assumption given that individuals are taken to possess a common preference for selecting the better alternative however in the model analyzed here we find that sincere behavior by all individuals is not rational even when individuals have such a common preference in particular sincere voting does not constitute a nash equilibrium a satisfactory rational choice foundation for the claim that majorities invariably do better than individuals therefore has yet to be derived

learning and optimal monetary policy to conduct policy efficiently central banks must use available data to infer or learn the relevant structural relationships in the economy however because a central bank s policy affects economic outcomes the chosen policy may help or hinder its efforts to learn this paper examines whether real time learning allows a central bank to learn the economy s underlying structure and studies the impact that learning has on the performance of optimal policies under a variety of learning environments our main results are as follows first when monetary policy is formulated as an optimal discretionary targeting rule we find that the rational expectations equilibrium and the optimal policy are real time learnable this result is robust to a range of assumptions concerning private sector learning behavior second when policy is set with discretion learning can lead to outcomes that are better than if the model parameters are known finally if the private sector is learning then unannounced changes to the policy regime particularly changes to the inflation target can raise policy loss considerably

expectations and the stability problem for optimal monetary policies eine auf den fundamentaldaten beruhende regelbindung der geldpolitik ohne selbstverpflichtung die bei vollkommen rationalen erwartungen der privaten akteure optimal ware ist instabil wenn diese akteure de facto den ublichen regeln des adaptiven lernens folgen dieses problem lasst sich dadurch beheben dass die erwartungen privater akteure berucksichtigt und in geeigneter weise in die optimale geldpolitik einbezogen werden diese eindeutige schlusfolgerung gilt auch dann wenn sich der geldpolitische entscheidungstrager und die privaten akteure in einem simultanen lernprozess befinden unsere ergebnisse zeigen wie wichtig es ist die geldpolitik angemessen zu gestalten und dabei nicht nur die fundamentaldaten sondern auch direkt die beobachteten erwartungen privater haushalte und unternehmen zu berucksichtigen

monetary policy and learning from the central bank s forecast abstract we examine the expectational stability e stability of rational expectations equilibrium ree in a standard new keynesian model in which private agents refer to the central bank s forecast in the process of adaptive learning to satisfy the e stability condition in this environment the central bank must respond more strongly to the expected inflation rate than the extent to which the taylor principle suggests however the central bank s strong reaction to the expected inflation rate raises the possibility of indeterminacy of the ree in considering these problems a robust policy requires responding to the current inflation rate to a certain degree

voting behavior and information aggregation in elections with private information we analyze two candidate elections in which voters are uncertain about the realization of a state variable that affects the utility of all voters each voter has noisy private information about the state variable we show that the fraction of voters whose vote depends on their private information goes to zero as the size of the electorate goes to infinity nevertheless elections fully aggregate information in the sense that the chosen candidate would not change if all private information were common knowledge equilibrium voting behavior is to a large extent determined by the electoral rule i e if a candidate is required to get at least x percent of the vote in order to win the election then in equilibrium this candidate gets very close to x percent of the vote with probability close to one finally if the distribution from which preferences are drawn is uncertain then elections will generally not satisfy full information equivalence and the fraction of voters who take informative action does not converge to zero

debt policy uncertainty and expectations stabilization this paper develops a model of policy regime uncertainty and its consequences for stabilizing expectations because of learning dynamics uncertainty about monetary and fiscal policy is shown to restrict relative to a rational expectations analysis the set of policies consistent with macroeconomic stability anchoring expectations by communicating about monetary and fiscal policy enlarges the set of policies consistent with stability however absent anchored fiscal expectations the advantages from anchoring monetary expectations are smaller the larger is the average level of indebtedness finally even when expectations are stabilized in the long run the higher are average debt levels the more persistent will be the effects of disturbances out of rational expectations equilibrium

inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule the purpose of the paper is to survey and discuss in ation targeting in the context of monetary policy rules the paper provides a general conceptual discussion of monetary policy rules attempts to clarify the essential characteristics of in ation targeting compares in ation targeting to other monetary policy rules and draws some conclusions for the monetary policy of the european system of central banks jel classi cation e42 e52

unequal pay or unequal employment a cross country analysis of gender gaps we analyze gender wage gaps correcting for sample selection induced by nonemployment we recover wages for the nonemployed using alternative imputation techniques simply requiring assumptions on the position of imputed wages with respect to the median we obtain higher median wage gaps on imputed rather than actual wage distributions for several oecd countries however this difference is small in the united states the united kingdom and most central and northern eu countries and becomes sizable in southern eu countries where gender employment gaps are high selection correction explains nearly half of the observed negative correlation between wage and employment gaps

animal spirits heterogeneous expectations and the amplification and duration of crises we introduce a simple equilibrium model of a market for loans households lend to firms and form expectations about their loan default probability under heterogeneous expectations with switching between forecasting strategies driven by reinforcement learning even a small fraction of pessimistic traders has a large aggregate effect causing a heterogeneous expectations risk premium i e significantly higher contract rates for loans and significantly lower output our stylized model illustrates how animal spirits and heterogeneous expectations may lead to aconfidence loss and to financial instability amplifying the magnitude of economic crises and slowing down recovery

adaptive learning and the use of forecasts in monetary policy abstract this paper investigates monetary policy design when central bank and private sector expectations differ private agents learn adaptively the central bank has a possibly misspecified model of the economy successful implementation of optimal policy using inflation targeting rules requires the central bank to have complete knowledge of private agents learning behavior if the central bank mistakenly assumes private agents to have rational expectations when in fact they are learning then policy rules frequently lead to divergent learning dynamics however if the central bank does not correctly understand agents behavior stabilization policy is best implemented by controlling the path of the price level rather than the inflation rate

unstable inflation targets this paper studies long run inflation targets and stability in an imperfect information environment when central banks set an inflation target that is not fully communicated agents draw inferences about inflation from recent data and remain alert to structural change by forming expectations from a forecasting model that is estimated via discounted least squares inflation targets can lead agents beliefs to depart from rational expectations through two channels first implementing a higher inflation target can lead to overshooting second there can be nearly self fulfilling inflation disinflation or deflation that arises as an endogenous response to shocks policy implications for implementing a higher target without deanchoring expectations are discussed

the value of interest rate stabilization policies when agents are learning we examine the expectational stability e stability of rational expectations equilibrium under optimal interest rate rules in the context of the standard new keynesian model of the monetary transmission mechanism we focus on the case where the monetary authority adds interest rate stabilization to its other objectives of inflation and output stabilization we consider both the case where the monetary authority lacks a commitment technology and as well as the case of full commitment we show that for both cases optimal interest rate rules yield rational expectations equilibria that are e stable for a wide range of empirically plausible parameter values this finding stands in contrast to the findings of evans and honkapohja 2002 2003ab for optimal monetary policy rules in environments where interest rate stabilization is not part of the central bank s objective function

performance of inflation targeting based on constant interest rate projections monetary policy is sometimes formulated in terms of a target level of inflation a fixed time horizon and a constant interest rate that is anticipated to achieve the target at the specified horizon these requirements lead to constant interest rate cir instrument rules using the standard new keynesian model it is shown that some forms of cir policy lead to both indeterminacy of equilibria and instability under adaptive learning however some other forms of cir policy perform better we also examine the properties of the different policy rules in the presence of inertial demand and price behaviour

forward guidance and the role of central bank credibility under heterogeneous beliefs abstract this paper studies the macroeconomic effects of central bank forward guidance when central bank credibility is endogenous we take a stylized new keynesian model with an occasionally binding effective lower bound constraint on nominal interest rates and heterogeneous and boundedly rational households central bank forecasts follow a bivariate var not taking into account the time variation in the distribution of aggregate expectations in this framework we extend the central bank s toolkit to allow for the publication of its own forecasts delphic guidance and the commitment to a future path of the nominal interest rate odyssean guidance we find that both delphic and odyssean forward guidance increase the likelihood of recovery from a liquidity trap even though odyssean guidance alone appears more powerful in inducing recovery we find it to increase ex post macroeconomic volatility and thus reduce welfare

behavioral learning equilibria we propose behavioral learning equilibria where boundedly rational agents learn to use a simple univariate linear forecasting rule with correctly specified unconditional mean and first order autocorrelation in the long run agents learn the best univariate linear forecasting rule without fully recognizing the more complex structure of the economy an important feature of behavioral learning equilibria is simplicity and parsimony which makes coordination of individual expectations on such an aggregate outcome more likely in a first application an asset pricing model driven by ar 1 ar 1 dividends a unique behavioral learning equilibrium exists characterized by high persistence and excess volatility and it is stable under learning in a second application the new keynesian phillips curve multiple equilibria coexist learning exhibits path dependence and inflation may switch between low and high persistence regimes

male white black wage gaps 1979 1994 a distributional analysis 1 introductionnumerous studies show that during the 1980s the mean white black wage gap among new entrant 0 10 years of potential experience males expanded 1 juhn murphy and pierce 1991 jmp attribute the mean gap s expansion to a widening of the overall u s wage distribution caused by a host of economy wide race neutral changes that led to labor demand shifts toward better educated and better skilled workers regardless of race because african americans tend to be at lower levels of the overall skill distribution the shifts adversely impacted african american men more than white men leading to an expansion in the mean wage gap to arrive at this conclusion jmp decompose the expansion in the mean new entrant wage gap into four components the first two components measure the wage gap s increase because of a widening in observable racial differences in measured characteristics and their prices for example educational attainment and the returns to education the third component captures the contribution of growing racial discrimination and widening differences in unmeasured skills to the wage gap s expansion this term s contribution is measured by the drop in the mean percentile rank of blacks in the white residual wage distribution the fourth component identifies the role of increases in the prices of unmeasured skills and is measured by the increase in the variance of the white residual wage distribution when applied to the march annual demographic files of the current population survey jmp find that from 1979 to 1987 increases in the price of unmeasured skills explain all of the new entrant mean wage gap s expansion indicating that factors that adversely impacted less skilled workers regardless of race are the primary cause of the wage gap s expansion in related work reardon 1997 uses a national sample of white and african american men from the 1980 and 1990 decennial censuses and shows that the mean racial wage gap s expansion is caused by increased variance in the distribution of residual wages generated by labor demand shifts toward high skilled whites and away from medium skilled whites and high skilled african american men the wage gap expands because high skilled african american men earn wages that are similar to those of whites in the middle and upper third of their wage distribution the labor demand shifts led to a stretching or increased variance in the wage distribution that favored high skilled whites relative to high skilled african americans and medium skilled whites this paper makes several contributions to the literature on racial wage gaps and the technical literature on wage decompositions first i examine whether jmp s 1991 results hold up when the analysis is disaggregated by experience and educational attainment this is an important extension for two reasons bound and freeman 1992 rodgers 1997a and others have found that the racial wage gap among high school graduates and particularly among college graduates expanded significantly after the late 1970s over the same time period the variance of wages within these educational categories increased second it is important to determine the extent to which racial inequality that was generated while a cohort was a new entrant persists as it ages the paper s technical innovation is the development of a distribution or skill specific decomposition that identifies whether the stretching of the white wage distribution uniformly contributes to an expansion in racial inequality at all skill levels or quantiles of the wage distribution or whether the contribution of the wage distribution s stretching is specific to a skill level for example does the increase in the price of unmeasured skills explain a greater portion of the increase in the racial wage gap between high skilled african americans and whites than it does between medium skilled african americans and whites

learning about monetary policy rules abstract we study macroeconomic systems with forward looking private sector agents and a monetary authority that is trying to control the economy through the use of a linear policy feedback rule we use stability under recursive learning a la evans and honkapohja learning and expectations in macroeconomics princeton university press princeton new jersey 2001 as a criterion for evaluating monetary policy rules in this context we find that considering learning can alter the evaluation of alternative policy rules

gender wage inequality during sri lanka s post reform growth a distributional analysis abstract this paper investigates gender wage inequality in sri lanka during 1992 2014 a period of robust economic growth following pro market reforms the gap in mean wages between men and women decreased steadily over this period unconditional quantile regression reveals the decline in gender wage inequality was driven by the upper half of the distribution and was due to improvements in women s observable human capital yet the pay structure became more unequal indicating widening gender gaps in the returns to labor market characteristics and in unobservable determinants of wages the gender gap in pay structure widened disproportionately in the lower half of the distribution coinciding with falling absolute and relative returns to women in manufacturing industries and production occupations facing greater international competition the study also demonstrates selection bias underestimates the gender wage gap and overestimates the gains in equality over time factors that hinder gender equality in the labor market are discussed along with policy implications

on non uniqueness in rational expectations models an attempt at perspective abstract many macroeconomic models involving rational expectations give rise to an infinity of solution paths even when the models are linear in all variables some writers have suggested that this non uniqueness constitutes a serious weakness for the rational expectations hypothesis one purpose of the present paper is to argue that the non uniqueness in question is not properly attributable to the rationality hypothesis but instead is a general feature of dynamic models involving expectations it is also argued that there typically exists in a very wide class of linear rational expectations models a single solution that excludes bubble or bootstrap effects one that occur only because they are arbitrarily expected to occur a systematic procedure for obtaining solutions free from such effects is introduced and discussed in addition this procedure is used to interpret and reconsider several prominent examples with solution multiplicities including ones developed by fischer black and john b taylor

inflation forecasts and monetary policy proposals for inflation targeting as a strategy for monetary policy leave open the important operational question of how to determine whether current policies are consistent with the long run inflation target an interesting possibility is that the central bank might target current private sector forecasts of inflation either those made explicitly by professional forecasters or those implicit in asset prices we address the issue of existence and uniqueness of rational expectations equilibria when the central bank uses private sector forecasts as a guide to policy actions in a dynamic model which incorporates both sluggish price adjustment and shocks to aggregate demand and aggregate supply we show that strict targeting of inflation forecasts is typically inconsistent with the existence of rational expectations equilibrium and that policies approximating strict inflation forecast targeting are likely to have undesirable properties we also show that economies with more general forecast based policy rules are particularly susceptible to indeterminacy of rational expectations equilibria we conclude that although private sector forecasts may contain information useful to the central bank ultimately the monetary authorities must rely on an explicit structural model of the economy to guide their policy decisions this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

determinacy learnability and monetary policy inertia we show how monetary policy inertia can help alleviate problems of indeterminacy and non existence of stationary equilibrium observed for some commonly studied monetary policy rules we also find that inertia promotes learnability of equilibrium the context is a simple forward looking model of the macroeconomy widely used in the rapidly expanding literature in this area we conclude that this might be an important reason why central banks in the industrialized economies display considerable inertia when adjusting monetary policy in response to changing economic conditions

on the perils of stabilizing prices when agents are learning abstract the main advantage of price level stabilization compared with inflation stabilization rests on the central bank s ability to shape expectations we show that stabilizing prices is no longer optimal when the central bank can shape expectations of agents with incomplete knowledge who have to learn about the policy implemented disinflating in the short run more than agents expect generates short term gains without triggering an abrupt loss of confidence because agents update expectations sluggishly following this policy in the long run the central bank loses the ability to shape agents beliefs and the economy converges to a rational expectations equilibrium in which policy does not stabilize prices economic volatility is high and agents suffer the corresponding welfare losses however these losses are outweighed by short term gains from the learning phase

robust stability of monetary policy rules under adaptive learning recent research has explored how minor changes in expectation formation can change the stability properties of a model duffy and xiao 2007 evans and honkapohja 2009 this article builds on this research by examining an economy subject to a variety of monetary policy rules under an endogenous learning algorithm proposed by marcet and nicolini 2003 the results indicate that operational versions of optimal discretionary rules are not robustly stable as in evans and honkapohja 2009 in addition commitment rules are not robust to minor changes in expectational structure and parameter values

liquidity traps learning and stagnation we examine global economic dynamics under learning in a new keynesian model in which the interest rate rule is subject to the zero lower bound under normal monetary and fiscal policy the intended steady state is locally but not globally stable large pessimistic shocks to expectations can lead to deflationary spirals with falling prices and falling output to avoid this outcome we recommend augmenting normal policies with aggressive monetary and fiscal policy that guarantee a lower bound on inflation in contrast policies geared toward ensuring an output lower bound are insufficient for avoiding deflationary spirals

desirability of nominal gdp targeting under adaptive learning nominal gdp targeting has been advocated by a number of authors since it produces relative stability of inflation and output however all of the papers assume rational expectations on the part of private agents in this paper i provide an analysis of this assumption i use stability under recursive learning as a criterion for evaluating nominal gdp targeting in the context of a model with explicit micro foundations which is currently the workhorse for the analysis of monetary policy

adaptive learning forecast based instrument rules and monetary policy abstract this paper argues that recently popular forecast based instrument rules for monetary policy may fail to stabilize economic fluctuations in a new keynesian model of output gap and inflation determination in which private agents face multi period decision problems but have non rational expectations and learn over time if the monetary authority adopts a forecast based instrument rule and responds to observed private forecasts then this class of policies frequently induce divergent learning dynamics a central bank that correctly understands private behavior can mitigate such instability by responding to the determinants of private forecasts this suggests gathering information on the determinants of expectations to be useful

the employment of black men trends in wages and employment of black men are contradictory wages are rising and employment is falling the article first describes employment trends using data from the five decennial censuses 1940 80 noting that education is becoming a more important determinant of participation next it is shown that ratios of average wages have not been severely biased by falling participation of those who would earn the least if they worked the final question asks whether falling participation of black men results from deteriorating job opportunities or from falling labor supply falling supply appears to dominate

trend growth and learning about monetary policy rules abstract the paper examines the effect of trend productivity growth on the determinacy and learnability of equilibria under alternative monetary policy rules under zero trend inflation we show that the economic structure is isomorphic to that of bullard and mitra 2002 and show that under a policy rule that responds to current period inflation and output a higher trend growth rate relaxes the conditions for determinacy and learnability results are mixed for other policy rules under the expectations based rule trend growth tightens the conditions for determinacy but it relaxes the conditions for learnability under the lagged data based rule trend growth tightens the conditions for determinacy and learnability our analysis shows that lower higher trend growth has similar effects as higher lower trend inflation in the sense of making inflation more less forward looking thus our results complement previous studies on the role of high trend inflation as a cause of macroeconomic volatility in the u s in the 1970s as this period was also characterized by productivity growth slowdown

heterogeneous expectations optimal monetary policy and the merit of policy inertia the design and analysis of optimal monetary policy is usually guided by the paradigm of homogeneous rational expectations instead we examine the dynamic consequences of design and implementation strategies when the actual economy features expectational heterogeneity agents have either rational or adaptive expectations consequently the central bank s ability to achieve price stability under heterogeneous expectations depends on its objective and implementation strategy an expectations based reaction function which appropriately conditions on private sector expectations performs exceptionally well however once the objective introduces policy inertia popular strategies have similar determinacy properties but they are less operational this finding calls for new implementation strategies under interest rate stabilization

a distributional analysis of the gender wage gap in bangladesh this article empirically investigates the gender wage gap in bangladesh during the period 2005 2009 applying unconditional quantile regression models the article demonstrates that women are paid less than men throughout the wage distribution and the gap is higher at the lower end of the distribution discrimination against women is the primary determinant of the wage gap the article also demonstrates that the observed gender wage gap is likely to be underestimated if we ignore selection in full time employment a number of policy implications are discussed

expectations and optimal monetary policy a stability problem revisited a landmark result in the optimal monetary policy design literature is that fundamental based interest rate rules invariably lead to rational expectations equilibria ree that are not stable under adaptive learning in this paper we make a novel information assumption that private agents cannot observe aggregate fundamental shocks and use simple linear forecasting rules for learning we find that with fundamental based rules there exist limited information equilibria that are stable under learning moreover there are multiple equilibria learning can be used as a selection tool to identify a unique equilibrium

sincere voting in an electorate with heterogeneous preferences much of the theoretical literature on voting with private information finds that voters do not vote sincerely at the equilibrium yet there is little empirical support for this result this paper shows that when the electorate is sufficiently divided sincere voting is an equilibrium strategy for an arbitrarily large proportion of voters

optimal monetary policy when agents are learning abstract we derive optimal monetary policy in a sticky price model when private agents follow adaptive learning we show that this slight departure from rationality has important implications for policy design the central bank faces a new intertemporal trade off not present under rational expectations it is optimal to forego stabilizing the economy in the present in order to facilitate private sector learning and thus ease the future intratemporal inflation output gap trade offs the policy recommendation is robust the welfare loss entailed by optimal policy under learning if the private sector actually has rational expectations is much smaller than if the central bank mistakenly assumes rational expectations when in fact agents are learning

monetary policy with heterogeneous and misspecified expectations in the recent literature on monetary policy and learning it has been suggested that private sector s expectations should play a role in the policy rule implemented by the central bank as they could improve the ability of the policymaker to stabilize the economy private sector s expectations in these studies are often taken to be homogeneous and rational at least in the limit of a learning process in this paper instead we consider the case in which private agents are heterogeneous in their expectations formation mechanisms and hold heterogeneous expectations in equilibrium we investigate the impact of this heterogeneity in expectations on central bank s policy implementation and on the ensuing economic outcomes and the general result that emerges is that the central bank should disregard inaccurate private sector expectations and solely base its policy on the accurate ones

wages and participation during the last 25 years annual hours worked by prime aged men fell by the equivalent of six 40 hour workweeks the reduction was more pronounced among those younger than among mid age workers among black men than among white men and among those with less schooling thus hours worked not only fell but showed increased dispersion increases that paralleled the growth in wage dispersion that has become so familiar to students of trends in wages the argument advanced here is that the correspondence is not coincidental the changes in hours worked are simply the labor supply responses that follow the changes in the structure of wages

learning about monetary policy rules when the housing market matters abstract in this paper we study a general equilibrium model with a housing market and use stability under adaptive learning as a criterion to evaluate monetary policy rules an important feature of the model is that there exist credit constrained borrowers who use their housing assets as collateral to finance purchases we evaluate both conventional taylor rules and rules that incorporate other targets such as housing prices we find that the effect of responding to housing prices in addition to output and inflation depends critically on the assumed information structure of the economy

modeling diverse expectations in an aggregated new keynesian model abstract we explore a new keynesian model with diverse beliefs and study the aggregation problems in the log linearized economy we show the solution of these problems depend upon the belief structure agents beliefs are described by individual state variables and satisfy three rationality axioms leading to the emergence of an aggregate state variable named mean market state of belief in equilibrium endogenous variables are functions of mean market belief and this state variable is the tool used to solve the aggregation problems diverse beliefs alter the problem faced by a central bank since the source of fluctuations is not only exogenous shocks but also market expectations due to diverse beliefs the effects of policy instruments are not monotonic and the trade off between inflation and output volatilities is complex also monetary policy can counter the effects of market belief by aggressive anti inflation policy but at the cost of increased volatility of financial markets and individual consumption

interest rate control and nonconvergence to rational expectations this paper investigates the feasibility of a monetary policy aimed at pegging the nominal rate of interest it shows that under general conditions such a policy would produce the well known cumulative process despite the fact that there exists a well behaved rational expectations equilibrium with no tendency for inflation to accelerate or decelerate the cumulative process shows up as the failure of learning to converge to rational expectations specifically the paper shows first in a conventional is lm model with an expectations augmented phillips curve and then in a micro based finance constraint model that if people follow any learning rule based on experience that satisfies a weak condition then the sequence of temporary equilibria under a policy of interest pegging cannot converge the nonconvergent path that will be observed accords with the familiar cumulative process in that inflation accelerates if the market rate of interest has been pegged below the natural rate

learning and the central bank abstract it is well known that sunspot equilibria may arise under an interest rate operating procedure in which the central bank varies the nominal rate with movements in future inflation a forward looking taylor rule this paper demonstrates that these sunspot equilibria may be learnable in the sense of e stability

optimal fiscal policy under learning abstract this paper characterizes optimal fiscal policy when agents learn about future taxation a benevolent and fully rational government chooses taxes on labor income and state contingent bonds to finance public spending considering that private agents form their expectations through a learning algorithm facing a trade off between distortionary taxes and distorted expectations the ramsey planner chooses the policy that minimizes the total cost of distortions the analysis produces two main results first the government will use fiscal variables to manipulate expectations reducing taxes and issuing debt at times of pessimism and doing the opposite at times of optimism this speeds up learning second the expectation dependent fiscal plan is also history dependent and it prescribes taxes that are not as smooth and more persistent than under rational expectations these findings are robust to alternative learning algorithms

black white earnings ratios since the civil rights act of 1964 the importance of labor market dropouts published median earnings of wage and salary workers by race and sex are based on distributions that exclude those without earnings and those not employed as wage and salary workers at the time of the survey it has been argued that the changing importance of these exclusions rather than any improvement in the distribution of offered wages for blacks accounts for the apparent increase in black white relative median earnings this paper presents a new method for correcting the published medians for such censoring the apparent improvement in relative earnings is reduced but not eliminated by the correction

the effects of government spending shocks on consumption under optimal stabilization abstract economic theory has yet to come up with a general guidance regarding the dynamic effects and welfare implications of shocks to public spending with the aim to provide a theoretical benchmark we analyse if a rise in private consumption following an exogenous rise in government spending is a feature of the economy under optimal stabilization in a standard new keynesian setting augmented for the presence of liquidity constrained agents and non separable preferences our results provide little evidence in support of a crowding in effect under timelessly optimal policy

learning about monetary policy rules when the cost channel matters abstract we study how monetary policy may affect determinacy and expectational stability e stability of rational expectations equilibrium when the cost channel of monetary policy matters focusing on instrumental taylor type rules and optimal target rules we show that standard policies can induce indeterminacy and expectational instability when the cost channel is present a naive application of the traditional taylor principle could be misleading and expectations based reaction function under discretion does not always induce determinate and e stable equilibrium this result contrasts with the findings of bullard and mitra 2002 learning about monetary policy rules journal of monetary economics 49 1105 1129 and evans and honkapohja 2003 expectations and stability problem for optimal monetary policies review of economic studies 70 807 824 for the standard new keynesian model the ability of the central bank to commit to an optimal policy is an antidote to these problems

optimal monetary policy under learning and structural uncertainty in a new keynesian model with a cost channel and inflation inertia abstract we investigate whether expectations based optimal monetary policy rules under discretion and under commitment can enforce a determinate and least squares learnable rational expectations equilibrium ree in a new keynesian model with inflation inertia and a cost channel of monetary policy transmission our numerical results show that commitment rules can enforce a determinate and learnable ree for all parameter constellations considered whereas discretionary rules are not always able to enforce the same desirable outcome in the economy we also examine different types of misapprehensions in policy making and find that an incorrect assessment of the economy s true structure by the central bank greatly affects its capability to enforce a determinate and learnable although suboptimal ree thus our numerical results highlight the relevance of this type of analysis for the design and conduct of monetary policy

demand for slant how abstention shapes voters choice of news media political commentators warn that the fragmentation of the modern media landscape induces voters to withdraw into information cocoons and segregate along ideological lines we show that the option to abstain breaks ideological segregation and generates cross over in news consumption voters with considerable leanings towards a candidate demand information that is less biased towards that candidate than voters who are more centrist this non monotonicity in the demand for slant makes voters ideologies non recoverable from their choice of news media and generates disproportionate demand for media outlets that are centrist or only moderately biased it also implies that polarisation of the electorate may lead to an ideological moderation in news consumption

asymmetric preferences and the stability problem for optimal monetary policy rules this paper evaluates the stability properties of optimal monetary policy rules when professionals under adaptive learning have asymmetric preferences the asymmetric preferences require volatility estimates in real time an expectations based rule can stabilize the economy while a fundamentals based rule leads to instability

labor market dropouts and trends in the wages of black and white men there is continuing debate over whether and to what degree estimations of black white wage convergence are biased because they leave labor market dropouts out of the picture if a high proportion of blacks become discouraged and cease searching for jobs and if those dropouts have on average poor job prospects the average wage of black workers who remain in the labor market will be an upwardly biased estimate of the average wage across the population this paper introduces a simple method of imputing wages to non workers when non workers are accounted for in the calculations real wage growth for prime age black men over the 1969 98 period is reduced approximately 40 and black white wage convergence is reduced by approximately one third the author finds that a source of bias as important as falling employment rates is the growing gap between wages of workers and potential wages of non workers

heterogeneous expectations in monetary dsge models this paper derives a general new keynesian framework with heterogeneous expectations by explicitly solving the micro foundations underpinning the model the resulting reduced form is analytically tractable and encompasses the representative rational agent benchmark as a special case we specify a setup in which some agents as a result of cognitive limitations make mistakes when forecasting future macroeconomic variables and update their beliefs as new information becomes available while other agents have rational expectations we then address determinacy issues related to the use of different interest rate rules and derive policy implications for a monetary authority aiming at stabilizing the economy in a dynamic feedback system in which macroeconomic variables and heterogeneous expectations co evolve over time

black men s relative earnings are the gains illusory this study investigates the hypothesis that the increase in the median earnings of black men relative to those of white men after 1964 in the united states largely reflects the labor force withdrawal of high proportions of low wage black men who availed themselves of government transfers analyzing current population survey and social security administration data through 1985 the author finds little empirical support for three direct implications of the sample censoring hypothesis of the total measured gain in relative earnings between 1964 and 1985 from 531 to 663 or 13 2 percentage points he finds that only 14 or 1 8 percentage points can be attributed to sample selection

what is wrong with taylor rules using judgment in monetary policy through targeting rules it is argued that inflation targeting is best understood as a commitment to a targeting rule rather than an instrument rule e ither ageneral targeting rule explicit objectives for monetary policy or a specific targeting rule a criterion for the forecasts of the target variables to be fulfilled essentially the equality of the marginal rates of transformation and substitution between the target variables targeting rules allow the use of judgment and extramodel information are more robust and easier to verify than optimal instrument rules and they can nevertheless bring the economy close to the socially optimal equilibrium

learning in a credit economy abstract in this paper we analyze a credit economy a la kiyotaki and moore 1997 credit cycles journal of political economy 105 211 248 enriched with learning dynamics where both borrowers and lenders need to form expectations about the future price of the collateral we find that under homogeneous learning the msv ree for this economy is e stable and can be learned by agents but when heterogeneous learning is allowed and uncertainty in terms of a stochastic productivity is added expectations of lenders and borrowers can diverge and lead to bankruptcy default on the part of the borrowers

are non fundamental equilibria learnable in models of monetary policy abstract recent models of monetary policy can have indeterminacy of equilibria which is often viewed as a difficulty of these models we consider the significance of indeterminacy using the learning approach to expectations formation we employ expectational stability as a selection criterion for different equilibria and derive the expectational stability and instability conditions for forward looking multivariate models both without and with lags the results are applied to several monetary policies

school quality and black white relative earnings a direct assessment the wage differential between black and white men fell from 40 percent in 1960 to 25 percent in 1980 it has been argued that this convergence reflects improvements in the relative quality of black schools to test this hypothesis we assembled data on pupil teacher ratios annual teacher pay and term length for black and white schools in the eighteen segregated states from 1915 to 1966 these data are linked to estimated returns to education for southern born men from different cohorts and states in 1960 1970 and 1980 improvements in the relative quality of black schools explain 20 percent of the narrowing of the black white earnings gap between 1960 and 1980

learnability of an equilibrium with private information abstract this paper investigates the learnability of an equilibrium with private information agents of each type have their own private information about an exogenous variable and conduct adaptive learning with a heterogeneously misspecified perceived laws of motion plm that includes only this variable the paper shows that the existence of private information has a nonnegative impact on the learnability of the equilibrium that is the condition for learnability is unaffected or relaxed by heterogeneity and or misspecification in plms caused by private information in a new keynesian model with private information about fundamental shocks the learnability of the equilibrium is ensured by the taylor principle of monetary policy the paper also confirms that these results hold true not only in the presence of private information but also in a variety of informational structures

the behavioral economics of currency unions economic integration and monetary policy we analyze different behavioral models of expectation formation in a multi country new keynesian currency union model our analyses yield the following robust results first economic integration is of crucial importance for the stability of the economic dynamics in a currency union second when the economic dynamics are unstable more activist monetary policy does not lead to stable economic dynamics these findings have natural counterparts in the rational expectations version of the model there economic integration is crucial for the determinacy of the equilibrium and when the equilibrium is indeterminate more activist monetary policy does not lead to a determinate equilibrium in an application to euro area data we find that the behavioral macroeconomic model outperforms its rational counterpart in terms of prediction performance

stabilisation policy rational expectations and price level versus inflation targeting a survey we survey literature comparing inflation targeting it and price level targeting pt as macroeconomic stabilisation policies our focus is on new keynesian models and areas that have seen significant developments since ambler s 2009 price level targeting and stabilisation policy a survey journal of economic surveys 23 5 974 997 survey optimal monetary policy the zero lower bound financial frictions and transition costs of adopting a pt regime ambler s conclusion that pt improves social welfare in new keynesian models is fairly robust but we note an interesting split in the literature pt consistently outperforms it in models where policymakers commit to simple taylor type rules but results in favour of pt when policymakers minimise loss functions are overturned with small deviations from the baseline model since the beneficial effects of pt appear to hang on the joint assumption that agents are rational and the economy new keynesian we discuss survey and experimental evidence on rational expectations and the applied macro literature on the empirical performance of new keynesian models overall the evidence is not clear cut but we note that new keynesian models can pass formal statistical tests against macro data and that models with rational expectations outperform those with behavioural expectations i e heuristics in direct statistical tests we therefore argue that policymakers should continue to pay attention to pt

monetary policy expectations and commitment commitment in monetary policy leads to equilibria that are superior to those from optimal discretionary policies a number of interest rate reaction functions and instrument rules have been proposed to implement or approximate commitment policy we assess these rules in terms of whether they lead to a rational expectations equilibrium that is both locally determinate and stable under adaptive learning by private agents a reaction function that appropriately depends explicitly on private sector expectations performs particularly well on both counts

monetary policy and automatic stabilizers the role of progressive taxation we study the effects of progressive labor income taxation in an otherwise standard new keynesian nk model we show that progressive taxation i introduces a trade off between output and inflation stabilization and affects the slope of the phillips curve ii acts as automatic stabilizer changing the responses to technology shocks and demand shocks and iii alters the prescription for the optimal monetary policy the welfare gains from commitment decrease as labor income taxes become more progressive quantitatively the model reproduces the observed negative correlation between the volatility of output hours and inflation and the degree of progressivity of labor income taxation