a cooperative game approach to optimal saving theory toward a constitution for savings 1 two years ago after a post nobel conference at the university of turin james buchanan told me that he was working on pure allocational grounds on the economic foundations of two ethical principles defined as victorian principles or virtues and comprised the ethics of work and the ethics of savings 1 he reasoned that the allocational foundation of the ethics of work should mainly be found in the external economies of increasing returns related to the increase in labour supply as for the allocational foundations of the ethics of savings the arguments where those previously used in the extensive discussion of the failures of the keynesian democracy in deficit and of the reasons of constitutional fiscal rules see brennan and buchanan 1985 buchanan and wagner 1977 the foundations of these virtues therefore are intended to be strictly paretian or rather taking buchanan s contractarian constitutional point of view wicksellian encouraged by buchanan s lead i aim in this paper to find rules relating to optimal saving in terms of an ideal game equilibrium which results both in pareto efficiency and fairness to the parties involved who are the individuals living in the various periods of time in a given country or society fair here means a distribution according to rules of justice as impartiality or mutual advantage i e when the players do not exert any threat or pressure arising from their different bargaining power 2 my approach although analogous to that of buchanan does differ because rests on rules of justice consistent with pareto improvements which due to these characters might have a salience as stable conventions 3

the sustainable borders of the state economic crises have historically set the stage for the reconfiguration of the economic borders of the state current concerns focus on debt and associated intergenerational issues such as pensions infrastructure and the environment the sustainable state is designed to put in place a framework for integrating these intergenerational issues alongside the traditional focus on macroeconomic policy static market failures and transfers the building blocks include the accounting framework and in particular a national balance sheet setting out assets and liabilities and providing for capital maintenance over time to support these assets and to provide for sufficient investment the sustainable state requires an appropriate level of savings and institutions to translate these savings into investments two components are the deployment of regulatory asset bases to underpin long term sunk and fixed costs given the time inconsistency problem in government s commitments and the development of financial intermediaries such as an infrastructure bank copyright 2011 oxford university press

degradation of environmental capital and national accounting procedures abstract the capital theoretic approach to the environment as a wastable stock a stock with a flow of abatement services is explored in a simple ricardo like model involving wheat production and pollution production as an essential by product we then turn to how the national accounts are implicit in growth or capital theory models and how formulae emerge for accounting for the wasting of environmental capital airsheds and watersheds from excessive use

optimal tax rules and public sector efficiency with an externality in an overlapping generations model abstract this paper examines optimal tax rules and public sector efficiency integrating them in a second best world with pollution by using an overlapping generations model the second best world is characterized by the comparative statics of green preferences the main results obtained are as follows first the marginal cost of public funds may be reduced by the externalities regardless of the choice of taxes second optimal environmental and non environmental tax rules are additively and directly affected by the dynamic efficiency of capital accumulation per unit labour decal and indirectly by it through the efficiency of the public sector environmental taxes going beyond pigovian ones may be welfare improving if the decal is improved by the environmental tax even optimal non environmental tax rules should additively and directly counter the dynamics of pollution to consider the income effects of the optimal tax system for the future third the additivity property or the principle of targeting does not hold even in the absence of incentive compatibility constraints the essential reasons for this are clarified as follows distortions that should be countered by taxes that is the income effects of the optimal tax system and the decal in this model break the equality between optimal environmental taxes and the externalities measured by governments finally growing environmental concerns may in fact increase pollution the inverse relationship between environmental and labour income taxes may not hold

managing cattle grazing under degraded forests an optimal control approach abstract in this paper aspects of knowledge generation and administration concerning management of a rural enterprise in the argentine chaco region are analyzed the deterioration of natural resources and human living conditions show that forest cattle interaction and the ecological economics of the system are poorly understood or not properly taken into account a methodological solution to a typical decision making problem is proposed here and illustrated by a worked example extracted from a real feasibility study the introduction provides a summary of the natural history and of the human interventions in the region arguments on the roke of silvopastoral systems in reverting forest and soil degradation into sustainable productive undertakings are also exposed the mathematical treatment of the problem follows a system theoretic approach a basic nonlinear model for the dynamics is designed first its simplest version includes three state variables livestock units forest biomass and forage availability and two manipulated variables percentage of female calves sold each year and percentage of the cows that did not give birth during the past period and went for sale states and controls are related by coupled differential difference equations selected results from simulation are shown foundations are also laid for taking into account impulsional controls selective and massive wood extractions forage implantation cattle additions and sales the objective function reflects sustainable development principles it evaluates the process in terms of usual economics and introduces ecological components of the management strategy the total cost is expressed as the accumulation of net expenses made for a fixed number of years minus the sale value of the firm at the end then a dynamic programming scheme is developed for finding optimal trajectories with respect to the basic setup shadow prices for the states are derived from the solution progress towards the building of a decision support system with the preceding elements is reported

second order sustainability conditions for the development of sustainable innovations in a dynamic environment abstract in particular radical innovations can be important means to achieving improved sustainability due to the existence of path dependency and lock in however the transition from one technological trajectory to another more sustainable one is often impeded by significant barriers fortunately these barriers are by their nature subject to substantial changes in time so it makes sense to carefully distinguish between periods of stability showing high barriers in which the given trajectory can hardly be left and periods of instability characterized by low barriers where a new trajectory can be reached more easily the latter distinction matters since sustainable innovations often rely on governmental regulation and the economic burden arising from this regulation will be much lower in periods of instability moreover due to the complexity and dynamics of change in their respective environments innovations are generally associated with fundamental uncertainty such that it becomes impossible to predict the degree of sustainability yielded by specific innovations in the longer run under these circumstances it is essential to facilitate the change between trajectories and to allow for the possibility to select between a variety of alternative trajectories within a process of trial and error sustainability as viewed from this evolutionary perspective is therefore better understood as the general capability to adapt that is to readily change from less to more sustainable technological trajectories since the latter kind of sustainability determines the conditions under which the former kind i e sustainability related to a specific technology can be achieved the two kinds are respectively called second order and first order sustainability finally a series of determinants and corresponding indicators from the techno economic political and socio cultural sphere is identified which after proper measurement and weighting allow for making an assessment whether and when the incumbent industry is sufficiently destabilized and the political system rendered sufficiently favorable to the new more sustainable technology such that a transition to the preferred trajectory is possible without too much effort

linking economic and ecological models for a marine ecosystem increasingly economists and ecologists have begun to recognize the value to public policy of combining information and results from each discipline into multidisciplinary studies here we present a methodological approach that links economic and ecological analyses we develop an economic ecological model by merging an input output model of a coastal economy with a model of a marine food web we describe distinct linear system sub models of the economy and the ecosystem and we develop a method for linking the two our method extends the work of earlier researchers by incorporating an ecosystem matrix into resource multipliers and by showing how these multipliers may be calculated we present a numerical example for the new england region using coastal economic and marine ecological data from the region for a restricted set of industry sectors and food web trophic levels we calculate resource multipliers for the example and we simulate the economic impacts of changes in primary production in the ecosystem on final demands for fishery products the results illustrate the effects of incorporating the impacts of habitat destruction and ecosystem structure on resource multipliers our approach can be extended to incorporate the full range of sectors in the economy and trophic levels in a linked ecosystem 2003 elsevier b v all rights reserved

a money demand system for euro area m3 in order to assess the importance of monetary and financial developments for key macroeconomic variables in the euro area a money demand system for m3 is estimated adopting a structural cointegrating var approach while maintaining a good statistical representation of the data long run relationships are based on economic theory by using generalized response profiles the dynamics of the money demand system is investigated without any further identifying assumptions error bounds of the profiles are derived using bootstrap simulations

on a clear day you might see an environmental kuznets curve we shed some new light on the environmental kuznets curve ekc and show how it can be viewed as a particular form of equilibrium relationship where technology and preference parameters determine the shape of the curve in contrast to most of the literature on the ekc we estimate a theoretically consistent model on long run data swedish sulfur emission covering the period 1900 2002 furthermore we test and date structural change the model suggests four regimes 1900 1918 1919 1933 1934 1967 and 1968 2002 generating four rather different patterns for pollution over time the policy conclusions are consonant with pearce s general view about the ekc there is no theoretical presumption that it has an inverted u shape nor should any country try to grow out of the environmental problems without analyzing the benefits and costs of so doing

accounting for the value of ecosystem services abstract a value of ecosystem services ves may be calculated by multiplying a set of ecosystem services by a set of corresponding shadow prices this paper examines the role of the ves concept in measuring trends in human well being under conventional arguments from applied welfare economics standard measures of market consumption may be extended to include the value of direct environmental services which affect welfare in ways that are not mediated by the consumption of purchased goods the ves concept does not capture values such as ecological sustainability and distributional fairness that are not reducible to individual welfare and its operationalization is constrained by the well known limitations of nonmarket valuation methods nonetheless attempts to calculate the value of environmental services can provide insights into the tradeoffs between market activity and environmental quality that are implicit in the process of economic growth such efforts can promote informed debate concerning the achievement of sustainable development

optimal dutch disease growth models of the dutch disease such as those of krugman 1987 matsuyama 1992 sachs and warner 1995 and gylfason et al 1999 explain why resource abundance may reduce growth however the literature also raises a new question if the use of resource wealth hurts productivity growth how should such wealth be optimally managed this question forms the topic of the present paper in which we extend the growth literature on the dutch disease from a positive to a normative setting we show that the assumptions in the previous literature imply that the optimal share of national wealth consumed in each period needs to be adjusted down however some dutch disease is always optimal thus lower growth in resource abundant countries may not be a problem in itself but may be part of an optimal growth path the optimal spending path of the resource wealth may be increasing or decreasing over time and we discuss why this is the case

on the intergenerational allocation of natural resources it is known hartwick and others that under standard assumptions a society that invests in reproducible capital the competitive rents on its current extraction of exhaustible resources will enjoy a consumption stream constant in time it is shown here that this result can be interpreted as saying that an appropriately defined stock of capital including the initial endowment of resources is being maintained intact and that consumption can be interpreted as the interest on that patrimony this seems like a useful rule of thumb for policy

intertemporal equity and efficient allocation of resources abstract competitive paths which are efficient are shown to satisfy a terminal cost minimization condition thereby providing a continuous time counterpart to the discrete time result due to malinvaud using this result competitive paths which are equitable and efficient are shown to satisfy hartwick s investment rule which states that the value of net investment is zero at each date our result indicates that hartwick s rule can help to signal inefficiency of competitive equitable paths journal of economic literature classification numbers c61 d90 o41

the role of intergenerational transfers and life cycle saving in the accumulation of wealth he purpose of this paper is to review what economists know at present about the following question how large a portion of the existing wealth is the result of a bequest motive that is of accumulation for the specific purpose of leaving bequests i will also endeavor to clarify why an answer to this question is of interest in the early keynesian period when the study of national saving first attracted wide interest relatively little attention was paid to what led people to save though it was generally understood that the main systematic reason was to leave bequests j m keynes in the famous chapter 9 of the general theory of employment interest and money 1936 had listed seven distinct motives for saving besides the leaving of bequests but five of these which include to increase one s future income or to insure one s independence and power implied that all or nearly all the accumulation would finally wind up as bequeathed wealth this in turn meant that most private wealth originated through bequests that is it either had been received through bequests or was destined to be bequeathed and indeed how else could society accumulate wealth however keynes 1936 p 107 also mentioned two further motives precaution that is to build up a reserve against unforeseen contingencies and foresight that is to provide for an anticipated future relation between the income and the needs of the individual or his family different from that which exists in the present as for example in relation to old age family education or the maintenance of dependents these motives in contrast to most of the previous ones have the

the japanese deflation has it had real effects could it have been avoided has deflation contributed to the long lasting stagnation of the japanese economy could the bank of japan have stopped deflation by implementing a more expansionary monetary policy tentative answers are probably not to the first question and probably yes to the second question it is found that the total cost of deflation over the period 1995 2003 has been close to a 1 1 rate of lost gdp yet on the basis of statistical significance and robustness to specification choices this evidence is not compelling on the other hand the estimated positive linkage between nominal base money growth and inflation is significant and robust even given current economic conditions however in order to be inflationary monetary policy should have been more expansionary than what actually observed even since the launch of the quantitative easing in 2001

environmental issues and economic decisions in developing countries abstract this paper explains the key role of environmental economics in incorporating environmental concerns into decision making and in facilitating the more efficient management of natural resources as a step toward sustainable development it reviews concepts and techniques for valuation of environmental impacts for use in conventional cost benefits analysis as well as key related aspects including environmental impacts of economywide policies multicriteria analysis risk and uncertainty and discount rate issues several developing country case studies are summarized which cover a range of practical valuation methods the evidence presented suggests that the valuation techniques for determining use values may be applied successfully in appropriate cases but examples involving nonuse values are rare the use of multiobjective desicion methods also needs to be explored where economic valuation is not feasible

international trade and the sustainability footprint a practical criterion for its assessment a simple and minimal criterion for sustainability is that the value of natural capital plus manufactured capital be not decreasing on the basis of any individual country or region the above simple comparison may be misleading as it does not take account of the production of goods for consumption in other countries regions via international trade in other terms the full environmental footprint of a country may not be properly assessed a method of calculating a weak sustainability criterion has been established for both a closed economy approach and an open economy approach there are significant differences between the open and closed economies measures for several regions particularly the middle east overall global sustainability on this criterion has been positive and increasing using a difference equation approach a further analysis has been made of the average proportional rate of change of global sustainability between 1980 and 1990 and its various regional and structural components have been determined these indicate that most of global sustainability growth can be attributed to western europe other asia and japan particularly through high savings ratios the usa on the other hand has made a very small net contribution to the growth in global sustainability

discounting of long term costs what would future generations prefer us to do decisions with intergenerational consequences may leave future generations worse off i e not be pareto optimal if costs and benefits are not discounted correctly we point out that this happens if the conventional social discount rate is applied to intergenerational costs with that rate the justification of intergenerational costs benefits of a project are invested and the proceeds can cover future costs leads to an inconsistency over the long term eventually the supposed benefits of any project become larger than the entire gnp the conventional approach commits an error by treating the time preference component of the discount rate as if it represented creation of wealth while it really involves only redistribution the time horizon of the redistribution is limited by the duration of market transactions especially loans thus we recommend a two step discounting procedure with the conventional social discount rate for the short term about 30 years and the growth rate of the economy for the long term data for gnp per capita growth in the us the uk france germany japan and the soviet union since the industrial revolution combined with data for net economic welfare per capita suggest an intergenerational discount rate in the range of 1 to 2 for practical application the rate at which costs and benefits will grow over time is just as important as the discount rate only the difference between these two rates matters for many environmental costs these rates may be close to each other during the next few generations this implies that some of the uncertainty in the prediction of rates cancels and one can treat the problem as if the effective rate were close to zero the consequence for costs such as global warming or nuclear power can be very significant the valuation can increase by more than an order of magnitude compared to values based on conventional discounting

measuring the depreciation of australia s non renewable resources a cautionary tale abstract the pursuit of sustainability is widely seen as requiring the calculation and publication of environmentally adjusted measures of national income and or of economic indicators intended to show whether or not economic behaviour is consistent with sustainability requirements in either case a measure of natural resource depreciation is needed the paper restricts its attention to non renewable mineral resources and measures their depreciation in australia according to different methods proposed in the literature using data published by the australian bureau of statistics the different methods are found to yield strikingly different results the conclusion is that robust measurement of natural resource depreciation is unlikely and that results appertaining to such should be treated sceptically

the sustainable residential water use sustainability efficiency and social equity the european experience abstract the present paper traces the operational conditions governing the sustainable use of water in cities towards this objective the paper first proposes a new comprehensive definition for the sustainable use of water next efficiency in use is proposed as a fundamental instrument in achieving sustainability in spite of prevailing opinions maintaining that sustainability and efficiency aim at different and probably conflicting objectives in this light several pricing modes that inhibit efficiency are examined and their effects are defined in this context egalitarian pricing which nevertheless prevents efficiency is also systematically evaluated until it is ascertained that it does not serve social equity in the use of water in the long run all the more the present paper advocates that certain egalitarian pricing systems such as the increasing block rates most prevalent at this time may have the reverse effect than the one intended and hence in the long run impose negative impacts on the welfare of low incomes as a result full cost prices are proposed as a necessary instrument for the sustainable use of water an instrument that promotes social equity in the long run the assumptions of the study are examined in a comparative analysis of representative european pricing systems and urban management modes

genuine savings and sustainability genuine savings gs has emerged as the leading economic indicator of sustainable economic development at the country level it derives from the literatures on weak sustainability wealth accounting and national income accounting we discuss the theoretical underpinnings of gs focusing on the relationship between changes in a nation s extended capital stock and the future path of consumption the indicator has entered widespread use propelled by the world bank s publications despite its varying performance as a predictor for future consumption notwithstanding the extensive body of literature reviewed promising future research avenues are identified

scarcity resource price uncertainty and economic growth over the course of the past decade significant steps have been taken to empirically link indicators of resource scarcity to changes in economic growth this paper extends this previous literature in two ways first rather than concentrating exclusively on energy we focus on the technological change embodied in the prices of an array of complementary natural resource inputs second we investigate using g arch methods the importance of resource price uncertainty as well as resource price levels on aggregate economic growth we find that output growth is significantly influenced by both resource price levels and resource price uncertainty

net national product as an indicator of sustainability net national product nnp can potentially serve several objectives among others to measure value added and to be an indicator of welfare in the aftermath of the world commission on environment and development however it also seems important to investigate whether the concept of nnp can serve as an indicator of sustainability my point of departure following hicks 1946 ch 14 is therefore to require that nnp should measure what can be consumed in the present period without reducing future consumption possibilities and in line with this to argue that the nnp should equal the maximum per capita consumption level that can be sustained if sufficiently many facilitating assumptions are made then a concept of nnp that serves as an exact indicator of sustainability can easily be constructed for instance for a closed economy with a constant population a stationary technology and with only one capital good it follows that the present does not reduce future consumption possibilities if and only if it does not decrease the stock of the single capital good hence under the assumption that the one capital good k is identical to the one consumption good x nnp defined as y x k measures the maximal sustainable consumption at time t because then x y is equivalent to k the purpose of this note is to establish that with multiple capital goods it is not in general possible to construct an exact indicator of sustainability on the

the price stability oriented monetary policy of the ecb an assessment the definition of price stability adopted by the ecb has recently been criticized in the literature particularly for being unable to fully anchor inflation expectations and creating a deflation risk in the paper empirical evidence is provided against these claims despite the unfavourable macroeconomic conditions for the euro area since 2001 monetary policy management has lead to the setting of the policy rate at levels compatible with trend inflation the long run inflation forecast in the range 1 3 and therefore without affecting negatively the inflation outlook

are there limits to growth a simple theoretical model of pollution is developed that generates an inverted u shape relationship between per capita income and environmental quality this model is then used to study long run growth the same inverted u shape is shown to appear in time series and the prospects for sustained growth are shown to hinge on whether increasingly strict environmental regulation is compatible with a constant rate of return on capital implementation is also studied tax and voucher schemes are shown to have an advantage over direct regulation because they provide the correct incentives for capital accumulation copyright 1998 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

carbon dioxide income and energy evidence from a non linear model abstract this study applies the panel smooth transition regression pstr model to explore the impacts of real income energy and investment on the co 2 income nexus for 99 countries covering the period from 1971 to 2010 we find that in the full sample as real income rises co 2 emissions rapidly increase first and then their increasing rate starts to slow down while the environmental kuznets curve ekc hypothesis for co 2 emissions is supported from the composite results of three income groups our results show that decreasing energy usage improving energy efficiency and enhancing clean energy usage could effectively ease the impacts of real income on co 2 emissions moreover countries with different energy trade conditions and income levels have different co 2 income correlations indicating that one size does not fit all

sustainable farm income in the presence of soil erosion an agricultural hartwick rule soil erosion is a physical and economic problem of natural capital degradation even along an intertemporally efficient trajectory one can have in a loss of soil fertility and a continuous decline of agricultural net revenue moreover soil erosion is a major source of surface water pollution in rural areas erosion control is thus a challenge for sustainable resource management and internalizing external effects to sustain the level of farm income an agricultural hartwick rule is proposed which addresses both on farm and off farm effects of soil erosion first it requires the investment of the soil rents into alternative capital second additional measures are required to comply with an ambient quality target a charge subsidy scheme proves the most adequate from a perspective of cost effectiveness and sustainability if effluent charge revenues are earmarked to subsidize cropland retirement at the watershed scale in combination with the investment of soil rents this enables to maintain the level of farm income constant over time while respecting the ambient quality target altogether this fulfills the requirements of efficiency and sustainability 2003 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

the greenhouse effect and intergenerational transfer abstract the scientific basis for understanding the economic issues involved in the greenhouse effect is outlined four important aspects of the problem are identified and discussed irreversibility international and institutional constraints uncertainty and intergenerational equity attention is focused upon the intertemporal choice problem a model describing the potential for intergenerational transfers under the uncertainty of climatic change due to fossil fuel combustion is presented we conclude intergenerational compensation can be achieved by investment in capital or technology or by bequest and is ethically required regardless of any other action

savings growth and the resource curse hypothesis an important connection between recent attempts to understand the determinants of economic growth and the measurement of sustainability is the finding of a negative and significant relationship between natural resource abundance and economic growth this is the so called resource curse hypothesis using cross country regressions we offer evidence that the curse may itself be a manifestation of the inability of governments to manage large resource revenues sustainably in particular these results offer another perspective on the resource curse hypothesis the countries where growth has lagged are those where the combination of natural resource macroeconomic and public expenditure policies have led to a low rate of genuine saving net saving adjusted for resource depletion

pollution income dynamics this paper integrates the scale composition and technique effects of economic growth on pollution using a multi output endogenous growth framework under certain empirically verifiable parameter conditions economic growth is not sustainable even under an optimal pollution tax

erratum to will technological change save the world the rebound effect in international transfers of technology technological change and its transfer to developing countries is often portrayed by policy makers as a critical part of the solution to a resource problem such as climate change based on the assumption that the transfer of resource conserving technologies to developing countries will result in reduced use of natural capital by those countries we demonstrate here in a capital conversion based model of development that the free transfer of resource conserving technologies to developing countries will increase the options available to those countries but that the way that they expend these options need not be in the direction of conserving resources this is another example of the potential for a rebound effect to determine ultimate outcomes here in the context of international technology transfer policy the transfer of technologies is as likely to simply move developing countries more rapidly down the same development path as it is to alter the choices they make along that path for this reason the transfer of resource conserving technologies without incentives provided to alter development priorities may not result in any resource conservation at all

intertemporal equity and hartwick s rule in an exhaustible resource model in a standard exhaustible resource model it is known that if along a competitive path investment in the augmentable capital good equals the rents on the exhaustible resource known as hartwick s rule then the path is equitable in the sense that the consumption level is constant over time in this paper we show the converse of this result if a competitive path is equitable then it must satisfy hartwick s rule

do central banks act asymmetrically empirical evidence from the ecb and the bank of england the paper attempts to exploit whether monetary authorities have a different behaviour during recession and expansion to this end a multivariate extension of hamilton markov switching model is adopted first regime dependent taylor type rules are estimated for the euro area and the united kingdom in order to capture the systematic behaviour of central banks then impulse response functions that account for the different phases of the business cycle are analysed in addition a comparative analysis concerning the estimated rules as well as the different reaction of real economy to monetary shocks is implemented the study strongly suggests that central banks cannot neglect the regime where the monetary action takes place it follows that the phase of business cycle is an important matter in monetary policy decision process

environmental equity and sustainability rejecting the kaldor hicks criteria abstract an implementable translation of environmental equity and sustainability is provided for use in benefit cost analysis as such the approach builds on the underlying economic structure of benefit cost analysis while trying to cause it to evolve in ways that take into account issues of greater concern to ecological economists environmental equity and sustainability are interpreted as imposing new decision criteria that require additional benefit cost tests based on actual compensation to identified sub groups of the population this rejects the pre world war ii compromise of economists regarding potential compensation embodied in the kaldor hicks criteria for environmental equity a project is proposed to pass a benefit cost test if the identified group either receives net benefits or is more than compensated for its losses for sustainability a project is proposed to pass a benefit cost test if the compensation is larger than the net value of the resource and the net value of the resource is reinvested

output the stock market and interest rates this paper develops a simple model of the determination of output the stock market and the term structure of interest rates the model is an extension of the is lm model and borrows from it the assumption that output is determined by aggregate demand and that the price level can only adjust over time to its equilibrium value however whereas the is lm emphasizes the interaction between the interest rate and output this model emphasizes the interaction between asset values and output asset values rather than the interest rate are the main determinants of aggregate demand and output current and anticipated output and income are in turn the main determinants of asset values it is this interaction that the model intends to capture its goal is to characterize the joint response of asset values and output to changes in the environment such as changes or announcement of changes in monetary and fiscal policy as the above brief description makes clear anticipations are central to the story the assumption made in this paper will be one of rational expectations the paper is organized as follows section i describes the model and sections ii iv characterize the behavior of the economy under the extreme but convenient assumption that prices are fixed forever sections v and vi extend the analysis to the case where prices adjust over time to their equilibrium value

sustainable growth with irreversible stock effects of renewable resources this paper examines sustainability conditions when the stock effects of renewable resources prevail and characterizes the maximal critical level of initial pollution emissions such that pigovian tax alone ensures sustainable growth

dutch disease and the mitigation effect of migration evidence from canadian provinces this article evaluates whether immigration can mitigate the dutch disease effects associated with booms in natural resource sectors we derive predicted changes in the size of the non tradable sector from a small general equilibrium model a la obstfeld rogoff using data for canadian provinces we find evidence that aggregate immigration mitigates the increase in the size of the non tradable sector in booming regions the mitigation effect is due mostly to interprovincial migration and temporary foreign workers there is no evidence of such an effect for permanent international immigration interprovincial migration also results in a spreading effect of dutch disease from booming to non booming provinces

national account of timber and forest environmental resources in sweden this paper outlines an extension of the national account of income from forest resources in sweden 1987 incorporating changes in timber inventories production of nonmarketed timber and nontimber goods and depletion or improvement in vital environmental stocks such as soil nutrients biodiversity and carbon sinks the total net value added provided by forest resources and forestry labour 1987 is estimated to 22 billions sek this is one third more than the contribution of forestry to ordinary gnp

deforestation and national accounting we construct a first best growing economy in which land is being switched continuously from use in forestry to an alternative use we find that implicitly for such activity to take place there must be no net loss to land owners this implies no deduction in the national accounts for deforestation with soil erosion on deforested land pigovian taxes must be levied to sustain a first best we also observe an optimal tax on households for their implicit use of forests as oxygenation sinks

the capital gains from trade are not enough evidence from the environmental accounts of venezuela and mexico abstract in principle a country cannot endure negative genuine savings for long periods of time without experiencing declining consumption nevertheless theoreticians envisage two alternatives to explain how an exporter of non renewable natural resources could experience permanent negative genuine savings and still ensure sustainability the first one alleges that the capital gains arising from the expected improvement in the terms of trade would suffice to compensate for the negative savings of the resource exporter the second alternative points at technological change as a way to avoid economic collapse this paper uses the data of venezuela and mexico to empirically test the first of these two hypotheses the results presented here prove that the terms of trade do not suffice to compensate the depletion of oil reserves in these two open economies

capital gains and net national product in open economies it is shown within a given framework that with the world economy following an egalitarian path the aggregate capital gains being positive is equivalent to the interest rate tending to decrease this result is of importance for the concept of net national product in open economies in particular with positive aggregate capital gains an open economy cannot sustain consuming the return on its capital stocks since some part of the return must be used to augment the country s national wealth it is established that a country s share of world wide sustainable consumption equals its share of worldwide wealth

intergenerational altruism and the environment we construct an overlapping generations model of pollution externality in which individuals are altruistically linked to their offspring as in barro 1974 it is shown that steady state consumption may be a decreasing function of the intergenerational degree of altruism despite individuals altruism the competitive equilibrium is not optimal we thus study the social optimum and show that it can be decentralized

resource depletion and sustainability in small open economies abstract exogenous price changes affect the amount that a small country exporting natural resource commodities must invest to sustain its consumption level the necessary amount is given by the difference between hotelling rent and the discounted sum of future terms of trade effects capital gains the latter term is found to be large relative to the former in the case of petroleum depletion in indonesia this suggests that resource rich countries will need to invest more than previously expected to sustain their consumption levels if natural resource prices continue their long term historical decline

a tale of two elasticities a general theoretical framework for the environmental kuznets curve analysis abstract we show that a variety of seemingly diverse concepts used to theoretically explaining the ekc have a common origin in two key preference and production elasticities we also prove that they jointly correspond to a unique underlying preference technology theoretical framework

empirical testing of genuine savings as an indicator of weak sustainability a three country analysis of long run trends genuine savings has emerged as a widely used indicator of sustainable development this approach to conceptualising what sustainability is about has strong links to work published by anil markandya and colleagues over 20 years ago in this paper we use long term data stretching back to 1870 to undertake empirical tests of the relationship between genuine savings gs and future well being for three countries britain the usa and germany our tests are based on an underlying theoretical relationship between gs and changes in the present value of future consumption based on both single country and panel results we find evidence supporting the existence of a cointegrating long run equilibrium relationship between gs and future well being and fail to reject the basic theoretical result on the relationship between these two macroeconomic variables this provides some support for the gs measure of weak sustainability

long term substitutability between environmental and man made goods abstract substitutability between environmental and man made goods plays a major role in the sustainability debate the notion of substitutability covers a continuous spectrum with perfect substitutability at one end and poor substitutability at the other in this paper it is shown that if economic growth sustains a sharp distinction emerges between perfect and poor substitutability without any intermediate interpretation of substitutability if poor substitutability prevails environmental resources will eventually constitute the major part of total consumption value we relate our results to baumol s disease and assess the implications of this phenomenon for the compensation of environmental losses

irreversibility and uncertainty cause an intergenerational equity efficiency trade off abstract two important policy goals in intergenerational problems are pareto efficiency and sustainability i e intergenerational equity we demonstrate that the pursuit of these goals is subject to an intergenerational equity efficiency trade off our analysis highlights two salient characteristics of intergenerational problems and policy i temporal irreversibility i e the inability to revise one s past actions and ii uncertainty of future consequences of present actions in human environment systems we employ a two non overlapping generations model that combines an intragenerational production decision on the use of circulating capital and a non renewable resource with a negative intergenerational externality as an unforeseen contingency if initially unknown problems become apparent and policy is enacted after irreversible actions were taken policy making faces a fundamental trade off between ex post pareto efficiency and sustainability that is one can achieve either one of these two goals but not both

an overlapping generations model of growth and the environment this article analyzes the potential conflict between economic growth and the maintenance of environmental quality in an overlapping generations model short lived individuals make decisions which have long lasting effects on both factor productivity and the environment the model provides a theoretical explanation of observed correlations between environmental quality and income whereby economic growth is associated first with declines then improvements in environmental quality it suggests circumstances in which multiple pareto ranked steady state equilibria may arise and in which sustained growth of both capital and environmental quality may occur overmaintenance of the environment analogous to dynamically inefficient overaccumulation of capital may emerge copyright 1994 by royal economic society

stochastic trends and economic fluctuations in a small open economy in this paper we describe how restricted vector autoregressions can be employed to examine the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations we show how cointegration restrictions can be used to identify a var system with common stochastic trends subject to transitory and permanent changes in average growth and how we may investigate the system s responses to permanent shocks i e to innovations to the trends theoretical cointegration vectors are derived from a small open economy growth model for terms of trade real gdp real consumption and real investments applying these methods to swedish annual data 1875 1986 we find that permanent real supply shocks account for most of the fluctuations in gdp even in the short run