subsidies fisheries management and stock depletion this paper investigates the impact of fishery subsidies on resource stocks in 23 oecd countries during 1996 2011 results show that the effect of subsidies depends on the type of subsidy and the management regime within this sample cost reducing subsidies have no effect on stocks if management is individual quota based but have negative effects if management uses traditional input output restrictions subsidies for improving fishery management and infrastructure produce beneficial effects on stocks under traditional management but no effect with individual quota based management these results suggest global efforts to reform fishery subsidies should be carried out in a highly selective manner

the norwegian winter herring fishery a story of technological progress and stock collapse in the 1970s herring stocks in the northeast atlantic were nearly fished to extinction this collapse is usually attributed to technological advances we investigate the empirical impact of technological shocks on herring stocks we show evidence that the power block was the principal factor in the demise of the stock we also look at the sensitivity of catch to stock size and technological shocks we measure a significant stock effect in the 1950s contrary to what we expect a simulation model indicates that this could have been caused by an increasing range of the fishing fleet due to ongoing technological progress

renewable resource economists and policy what differences have we made abstract this paper surveys developments in fisheries economics and fisheries policy over the past half century early work clarified the nature of the economic issues associated with open access laying the groundwork for changes in policies after coastal nations expanded their jurisdictions in 1976 perhaps the most important point made by economists is that property rights matter and that open access conditions create economic as well as biological problems the policy process has begun to create property rights systems although many of the world s fisheries still operate under mixed systems of regulations and open access incentives

uncertainty in the theory of renewable resource markets the natural growth rate of most renewable resource stocks is in part stochastic this paper examines the implications of such ecological uncertainty for competitive equilibrium in a market with property rights we show that stochastic fluctuations add a risk premium to the rate of return required to keep a unit of stock in situ and we examine the effects of fluctuations on resource rent examples are used to show that extraction can increase decrease or be left unchanged as the variance of the fluctuations increases depending on the extent of market self correction regulatory implications are also discussed renewable resource economics has traditionally been concerned with the study of dynamically optimal harvesting policies given a deterministic function for the natural growth of the resource stock issues have included the existence and characteristics of steady state equilibria for the optimally managed resource the need for and design of regulatory policies to prevent over exploitation and conditions under which as a social optimum or otherwise the resource will be exploited to extinction 1 much of this work has been based on the assumption of a fixed and exogenous price for the harvested resource typically resulting in bang bang solutions for the harvesting policy however some recent papers make price endogenous and thereby describe how the extraction rate and the rate of return and asset value of the resource behave in a competitive market with property rights 2

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trying to explain home bias in equities and consumption investors hold a substantially larger proportion of their wealth portfolios in domestic assets than standard portfolio theory would suggest a phenomenon called equity home bias in the absence of this bias investors would optimally diversify domestic output risk using foreign equities therefore consumption growth rates would tend to co move across countries even when output growth rates do not empirically however consumption growth rates tend to have a lower correlation across countries than do output growth rates a phenomenon i call consumption home bias in this paper i discuss these two biases and their potential relationship as suggested by the literature

the lucas critique and the volcker deflation this paper examines in light of the lucas critique the behavior of the phillips curve and of the term structure of interest rates after october 1979 it starts with an informal account of the policy change and then discusses how we might expect these two relations to shift after such a change it finds little evidence of a direct effect of the policy change on the phillips curve at least until 1982 it finds substantial evidence of a direct effect on term structure this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

production economics and optimal stock size in a north atlantic fishery this paper contains an analysis of a fishery production function and an empirical analysis of the north sea herring fishery an intertemporal profit function is defined by introducing stock dynamics and the concept of a sole resource manager some new results with respect to the relationship between the optimal stock level and production technology are derived estimates of the optimal stock level for herring are also presented

a test of strategic interaction in monetary policy beginning with an example provided by kydland and prescott 29 a large literature has evolved concerning strategic interaction between the public and a monetary authority in the conduct of monetary policy we undertake a direct test of a fundamental assumption of the strategic monetary policy literature monetary policy games suppose that the monetary authority and the public are aware of the strategic interdependence between them that is these models suppose that the monetary authority chooses an inflation rate that is a function of the public s expected inflation rate and that the public is sophisticated enough to realize that the inflation rate chosen by the monetary authority is a function of its beliefs below we extend cukierman and meltzer s 18 model of ambiguity and credibility in monetary policy to nest other models we then use a novel data set that permits a test of the assumption of strategic awareness for agents in the u s we find support for our extension of the cukierman and meltzer model the new data brought to bear is the federal reserve s forecast of inflation conditional on the monetary policy it chose throughout the sample period the federal open market committee fomc met from eight to twelve times per year to consider various short term monetary policies data on the forecasted paths for the inflation rate growth rate in output and unemployment rate associated with the different monetary policies under consideration is available for some of their meetings it seems reasonable to suppose that the chosen monetary policy satisfies revealed preference in the forecasts of these variables that it and the rejected monetary policies imply therefore in referring to the data we use the terms inflation rate forecast by the federal reserve and inflation rate chosen by the federal reserve interchangeably since theories of time consistent monetary policy have always been cast in the latter terminology the data are especially well suited to a direct test of the theory section i briefly reviews the theoretical literature on monetary policy games and empirical

towards credibility from inflation targeting the brazilian experience this article analyses the use of the basic interest rate after the adoption of inflation targeting in brazil and the credibility of this monetary regime through two indices that consider the cukierman and meltzer 1986 definition for credibility it also shows the main theoretical and practical motives for changes in the conduction of the monetary policy in the 1970s the way that inflation targeting strategy is inserted in rules vs discretion analysis and the main points that characterize the literature concerning inflation targeting the findings denote that the strategy implemented in brazil is not a good mechanism to develop credibility

the role of expectations in stabilization policy abstract this paper develops and tests a theory of the process by which private agents in an economy form expectations about government policy agents form and update their beliefs about the true state of government policy in a bayesian fashion the credibility of a policy is defined to be the subjective probability that the government is pursuing a reform policy rule the credibility of a reform of monetary or exchange rate policies is a function of the parameters of both monetary and fiscal policies the theory is applied to the chilean and argentine exchange reforms of the late 1970 s

natural resource economics under the rule of hotelling abstract natural resource stocks held in situ are physical assets equilibrium in the assets market requires that their rates of return be such that their owners are just willing to hold on to them rather than invest elsewhere i discuss a number of factors relating to the evolution of extraction costs to the durability of the resource to market structure and to uncertainty that are important in correctly characterizing the rate of return on holding exhaustible natural resource stocks the emphasis is put on how those factors can potentially help bridge the gap between the basic hotelling s rule of natural resource exploitation and the historical behaviour of the flow price of a number of resources i also highlight some theoretical and empirical issues that need further attention

embodied and disembodied technical change in fisheries an analysis of the sete trawl fishery 1985 1999 overfishing and excess capacity in mostfisheries around the world have generated considerableand increasing concern about their biological and economic performance ramifications theseproblems in part stem from substantialinvestment in technical improvements to boats andequipment in fishing fleets which exacerbatesexcess fishing capacity and low returns tofishing effort and investment given regulatoryand biological constraints however little attempt hasbeen made to quantify the extent or effects oftechnical change in fisheries in this paper we usedetailed data on innovation patterns for 19vessels in the sete trawl fleet of southernfrance to evaluate the contributions oftechnical change to catch rates we find thatembodied technical change enhanced productivity by approximately one percent per year between 1985 and 1999 but that external disembodied events counteractedthis trend causing a net output decline ofabout three percent per year

a time series approach to test a change in inflation persistence the mexican experience when a central bank commits credibly to a nonaccommodative monetary policy observed inflation should be a stationary process in countries where for a variety of reasons the determinants of inflation could lead it to follow a nonstationary process the adoption of a credible disinflationary programme should therefore induce a fundamental change in the stochastic process governing inflation and in particular should diminish its persistence this article studies the time series properties of both inflation and core inflation during the 1995 2006 period for the mexican economy using recently developed techniques to detect a change in the persistence of economic time series consistently with the adoption of an inflation targeting framework the results suggest that inflation in mexico seems to have indeed switched from a nonstationary to a stationary process around the end of year 2000 or the beginning of 2001

property rights in a fishery regulatory change and firm performance a new method is introduced and applied to the british columbia halibut fishery to analyze changes in productivity of firms harvesting a natural capital stock the index number technique decomposes the contributions of output prices variable input prices fixed inputs and productivity to firm profits adjusted for changes in the natural capital stock an application of the method is given using micro level data from a common pool resource the indexes provide a ready made comparison of all firms to the most profitable firm per unit of resource stock benchmarking with the decompositions also allows firms and regulators to improve overall industry performance by allowing them to analyze what components are contributing most to relative economic profits

technological change and managerial ability evidence from a malaysian artisanal fishery technological progress can improve economic development but its role in the harvest of common resources has received little attention we study the relationship between skill and the use of electronic and mechanical innovations in the productivity of malaysian artisanal fishers surprisingly electronics users do not define the frontier and mechanical winch adopters produced well inside it we show that if technology is a skill substitute rather than a complement then it helps less efficient users catch up to the production frontier policy makers must balance the implications for participation rates and resource depletion against gains for the least skilled participants

cooperative and non cooperative exploitation of the arcto norwegian cod stock a two agent model for the exploitation of the arcto norwegian cod stock is developed to investigate the economic benefits that can be realized from the resource and the effect of exploitation on stock sustainability under cooperation and non cooperation the two agents are identified in this study as a trawl fishery versus a coastal fishery unlike in munro 1979 where conflicts in the management strategies of agents arise from differences in the perceptions of the discount factor fishing effort costs and consumer preferences here conflicts arise mainly from the differences in fishing gear and grounds and the age group of cod targeted by the two agents using a game theoretic framework we show that given available data the optimum optimorum is obtained under cooperation with side payments and no predetermined harvest shares in which case the coastal fishery buys out the trawl fishery however sensitivity analysis shows that if the price premium assumed for mature cod is taken away the trawl fishery takes over as the producer of the optimum optimorum

the dynamics of inflation a study of a large number of countries over the last twenty years the statistical properties of inflation persistence has been the subject of intense investigation and debate without reaching a unanimous conclusion yet in this article we attempt to shed further light to this debate using a battery of econometric techniques in order to provide robust evidence on the degree of inflation persistence and whether this has changed during the period in which several countries have followed inflation targeting regimes or new monetary regimes we consider the inflation rates of thirty developed and emerging economies using quarterly data for the period 1958 to 2007 which include alternative monetary policy regimes the coefficient of the inflation parameter is estimated by ordinary least squares ols autoregressive moving average arma and autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average arfima models furthermore the grid bootstrap median unbiased mub estimator approach developed by hansen 1999 is used to estimate the finite sample ols

the local effects of an innovation evidence from the french fish market in this paper we investigate the effect on quality quantity and prices of an innovative fishing gear introduced for a subsample of vessels on a single wholesale fish market in france estimations are conducted using transaction data over the 2009 2011 period during which the innovation was introduced using a difference in differences approach around the discontinuity we find that for the treated the innovation has a large effect on quality 29 2 percentage points and prices 23 2 percentage points a shift in caught fish species is observed and new targeted species are fished very intensively we also quantify the treatment effect on the treated market from aggregate market data using factor models and a synthetic control approach we find a sizable effect of the innovation on market quality which is consistent with non treated vessels adapting their fishing practices to remain competitive the innovation has no effect on market quantities and prices

does the optimal size of a fish stock increase with environmental uncertainties we analyze the effect of environmental uncertainties on optimal fishery management in a bio economic fishery model unlike most of the literature on resource economics but in line with ecological models we allow the different biological processes of survival and recruitment to be affected differently by environmental uncertainties we show that the overall effect of uncertainty on the optimal size of a fish stock is ambiguous depending on the prudence of the value function for the case of a risk neutral fishery manager the overall effect depends on the relative magnitude of two opposing effects the convex cost effect and the gambling effect we apply the analysis to the baltic cod and the north sea herring fisheries concluding that for risk neutral agents the net effect of environmental uncertainties on the optimal size of these fish stocks is negative albeit small in absolute value under risk aversion the effect on optimal stock size is positive for sufficiently high coefficients of constant relative risk aversion

the adjustment of expectations to a change in regime a study of the founding of the federal reserve the founding of the federal reserve system in 1914 led to a substantial change in the behavior of nominal interest rates the authors examine the timing of this change and the speed with which it was effected they then use data on the term structure of interest rates to determine how expectations responded their results indicate that the change in policy regime was rapid and that individuals quickly understood the new environment they were facing copyright 1987 by american economic association

how big are potential welfare gains from international risksharing abstract there is extensive evidence that risksharing across countries is far from perfect some have attributed this to small benefits from risksharing gains from riskpooling that have been reported range from negligible to enormous this paper documents to what extent the results are sensitive to the parameterization of preferences the stochastic process of the endowment and its measurement we find that gains from risksharing are quite sizable for realistic assumptions about the underlying factors for oecd countries they are equivalent to a permanent increase in tradables consumption in the range of 1 1 to 3 5 for a 50 year horizon and 2 5 to 7 4 for a 100 year horizon

equity home bias a review essay this paper reviews the relatively more recent literature on equity home bias the empirical finding that people overinvest in domestic stocks relative to the optimal investment portfolio implied by the modern portfolio theory it reviews six broad classes of explanation of this puzzling phenomenon 1 hedging home risks 2 barriers to foreign investments 3 information asymmetries and 4 behavioral factors the consensus is that none of the explanations can account for the full extent of the bias by itself thus the home bias should be explained by a combination of rational and behavioral factors

home bias in open economy financial macroeconomics standard theory would predict that investors hold a well diversified portfolio of equities across the world but despite the process of financial globalization investors still hold a disproportionate share of local equities in their portfolio the equity home bias french and poterba 1991 we review the various explanations of this puzzling phenomenon in the context of recent developments in macroeconomic modelling that have allowed to incorporate sophisticated international portfolio choices in standard two country general equilibrium models we refer to this literature as open economy financial macroeconomics we focus on three broad classes of explanations i hedging motives in frictionless financial markets real exchange rate and non tradable income risk ii asset trade costs in international financial markets such as transaction costs differences in tax treatments between national and foreign assets iii informational frictions and behavioural biases these recent developments raise the need for new portfolio facts beyond the equity home bias and we will present some new evidence on cross border asset holdings across different types of assets equities bonds and bank lending we also present some new micro data on institutional holdings of equity at the fund level these data should inform macroeconomic modelling of the open economy and a growing literature of models of delegated investment

the optimal management of renewable resources under the risk of potential regime shift abstract complex dynamic systems can undergo changes in feedbacks between system components causing a rapid and persistent shift in system behavior regime shifts and potentially reduce welfare from declining provision of important ecosystem services in this paper we provide an analytical condition that determinfilefs whether the threat of a potential regime shift causes management to be more aggressive or more precautionary in numerical simulations we find that aggressive management can occur for reasonable parameter values which is counter prior results that the potential for harmful regime shift always leads to precautionary management

systemic risk and international portfolio choice returns on international equities are characterized by jumps moreover these jumps tend to occur at the same time across countries leading to systemic risk we capture these stylized facts using a multivariate system ofjump diffusion processes where the arrival of jumps is simultaneous across assets we then determine an investor s optimal portfolio for this model of returns systemic risk has two effects one it reduces the gains from diversification and two it penalizes investors for holding levered positions we find that the loss resulting from diminished diversification is small while that from holding very highly levered positions is large returns on international equities are characterized by jumps 1 moreover these jumps tend to occur at the same time across countries implying that conditional correlations between international equity returns tend to be higher in periods of high market volatility or following large downside moves 2 our objective in

fishery management under multiple uncertainty abstract among others who point to environmental variability and managerial uncertainty as causes of fishery collapse roughgarden and smith proc natl acad sci 93 1996 5078 argue that three sources of uncertainty are important for fisheries management variability in fish dynamics inaccurate stock size estimates and inaccurate implementation of harvest quotas we develop a bioeconomic model with these three sources of uncertainty and solve for optimal escapement based on measurements of fish stock in a discrete time model among other results we find 1 when uncertainties are high we generally reject the constant escapement rule advocated in much of the existing literature 2 inaccurate stock estimation affects policy in a fundamentally different way than the other sources of uncertainty and 3 the optimal policy leads to significantly higher commercial profits and lower extinction risk than the optimal constant escapement policy by 42 and 56 respectively

viewpoint induced innovation in fisheries and aquaculture abstract some classical economists most notably malthus predicted that scarcity would undermine long term human well being john stuart mill in contrast predicted that the threat of scarcity creates incentives for innovation that help to avoid some of the worst outcomes popular claims of marine ecologists often apply the malthusian narrative to supplies of seafood yet global supplies have continued to grow we examine the modern seafood industry and evaluate mill s claims about innovation we argue that the mechanisms that mill discusses innovation in response to and in anticipation of scarcity account for much of what we see scarcities induce technological policy and market innovations that enable seafood supplies to grow and these innovations can build on each other the challenge for policy makers is to avoid knee jerk responses to malthusian narratives and craft policy responses that encourage innovation while recognizing physical limits of ocean resources

reputation and credibility in the european monetary system ems credibility axel weber this article provides a quantitative assessment of the credibility of the european monetary system during the disinflation period of the 1980s the results contradict the widely held view that the ems has operated as a dm zone it is shown that after a brief early phase the ems has functioned as a bipolar system with a hard currency option supplied by the german bundesbank and a soft currency option offered by the banque de france whilst from the onset the netherlands have chosen the hard currency option at least in a first stage the remaining smaller economies belgium denmark and ireland adopted the soft currency alternative at a later stage of the ems however the soft currency block has disintegrated and some countries most noticeably ireland and to a lesser extent france have shifted towards the hard currency standard it is argued that this increased tightening of the ems provides a favourable starting condition for the transition to economic and monetary union

loss aversion asymmetric market comovements and the home bias abstract loss aversion has been used to explain why a high equity premium might be consistent with plausible levels of risk aversion the intuition is that the first order different utility impact of wealth gains and losses leads loss averse investors to behave similarly to investors with high risk aversion but if so should those agents not perceive larger gains from international diversification than standard expected utility investors with plausible levels of risk aversion they might not because comovements in international stock markets are asymmetric correlations are higher in market downturns than in upturns this asymmetry dampens the gains from diversification relatively more for loss averse investors we analyze the portfolio problem of such an investor who has to choose between home and foreign equities in the presence of asymmetric comovement in returns perhaps surprisingly in the context of the home bias puzzle we find that loss averse investors behave similarly to those with standard expected utility preferences and plausible levels of risk aversion we argue that preference specifications that appear to perform well with respect to the equity premium puzzle should be subjected to this test

rational expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime an investigation of the term structure of interest rates abstract this paper is of interest both for its methodological contribution of new tools for analyzing rational expectations models and for its substantive conclusions concerning the term structure of interest rates during the monetary experiment of october 1979 the paper studies systems subject to changes in regime interpreted here as occasional discrete shifts in the parameters governing the time series behavior of exogenous economic variables the specification is shown to be quite tractable both theoretically and empirically the technique is used to analyze yields on three month treasury bills and ten year treasury bonds during 1962 to 1987 a constant parameter linear model for short term rates is shown to be inconsistent both with the univariate time series properties of short rates and with the observed bivariate relation between long and short rates under the expectations hypothesis of the term structure an alternative nonlinear model that admits the possibility of changes in regime affords a much better description of the univariate process for short rates moreover the cross equation restrictions implied by the expectations hypothesis of the term structure are consistent with the nonlinear specification indeed the residuals of the restricted relation have a standard error of only 0 8 basis points this is a third less than that of a completely unrestricted linear regression of long rates on short rates and compares with an unconditional standard deviation of long rates of 142 basis points i conclude that once the recognition by bond traders of changes in regime is taken into account the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates holds up fairly well for these data

monetary policy and policy credibility theories and evidence within the past decade there has been a significant shift in attitude by many western industrialized countries toward the objectives and conduct of national economic policy the events of the 1970s accelerating inflation and stagnant economic growth motivated the view that inflation had created its own stubborn self sustaining momentum that either was not amendable to the influences of conventional macroeconomic policy or else would yield to such influences only at unacceptable costs this led to the development of a program aimed at reestablishing control over prices while minimizing any adverse consequences of anti inflationary policies on output and employment seen as a new monetary experiment the essential ingredients included prudent financial management abstinence from discretionary intervention commitment to intermediate targets and above all prior announcement of these policies evidence of this program and its effects can be found oni the continents of europe north america and latin america and provide further important lessons in anti inflationary management this paper is a survey of recent theoretical developments in monetary policy which among other issues attempt to explain one rationale for this program and the likely consequences thereof to the extent that the new program of monetary and fiscal reform was deliberately made public and impressed upon citizens as an overriding commitment of governments in advance of its execution reflects a prevailing opinion that economic policies are more effective if they are credible to private economic agents this view emphasized forcefully by william fellner 1976 1979 may be seen as being mainly due to the assimilation of the rational expectations hypothesis

technological change and the tragedy of the commons the lofoten fishery over 130 years we analyze the effect of technological change on labor and total factor productivity in the lofoten fishery using detailed data for 130 years our findings support the important role of natural resources in productivity and improvements in welfare in natural resource based industries the total factor productivity has risen faster than labor productivity in the fishery indicating that the considerable technological progress in this industry has to some extent been neutralized by the decline in the fish stock open access to the fish resource most probably led to this situation

total factor productivity change in the new england groundfish fishery 1964 1993 abstract we develop estimates of total factor productivity tfp change in the new england groundfish fishery from 1964 to 1993 using a procedure similar to squires 1992 rand j econom 23 2 221 236 method which extends standard tfp measurement by including the effect of fluctuations in stock abundance the results indicate that tfp increased on average by 4 4 per year from 1964 to 1993 a higher average rate of increase occurred between 1964 and 1982 possibly due to new technologies e g fishfinders tfp declined at 0 33 annually from 1983 to 1993 due to stringent output and effort control measures

credible commitment and exchange rate stability canada s interwar experience in 1929 the canadian government floated the exchange rate which stayed at parity with sterling until 1931 when the canadian dollar appreciated with respect to sterling and depreciated with respect to the u s dollar this paper uses barro and gordon s reputation theory to explain the stability of the canadian dollar before 1931 and the subsequent depre ciation appreciation econometric analysis is then used to support the argument that between 1931 and 1933 the level of the exchange rate was determined by expectations of a return to parity with either sterling or the u s dollar

asymmetric volatility connectedness on the forex market abstract we show how bad and good volatility propagate through the forex market i e we provide evidence for asymmetric volatility connectedness on the forex market using high frequency intra day data of the most actively traded currencies over 2007 2015 we document the dominating asymmetries in spillovers that are due to bad rather than good volatility we also show that negative spillovers are chiefly tied to the dragging sovereign debt crisis in europe while positive spillovers are correlated with the subprime crisis different monetary policies among key world central banks and developments on commodities markets it seems that a combination of monetary and real economy events is behind the positive asymmetries in volatility spillovers while fiscal factors are linked with negative spillovers

limits to the privatization of fishery resources a debate is emerging over the extent to which privatization of fishery resources is socially desirable the pessimists argue that there are strict limits to socially optimal privatization of such resources the optimists maintain that there are no effective limits to privatization and that the decades old fear that privatization could in some cases lead to resource extinction are of theoretical interest only we argue here that these fears are regrettably not baseless and that there are definite limits to socially desirable privatization we discuss means by which such limits could be identified on a fishery by fishery basis

when patience leads to destruction the curious case of individual time preferences and the adoption of destructive fishing gears abstract the use of destructive fishing methods is a serious problem especially for tropical and developing countries due to inter temporal nature of fisheries extraction activities standard economic theory suggests that an individual s time preference can play a major role in determining the gear choice decision based on earlier theoretical work we identify two ways in which individual time preferences can impact the adoption of destructive extraction methods i the conservation effect which posits that patient individuals as indicated by relatively high discount factor are less likely to use destructive extraction methods since they are more likely to account for the loss of future income that is accompanied by using these methods ii the disinvestment effect which argues that patient individuals are more likely to use destructive extraction methods since they have greater investment capability using an agent based model we clarify the conditions under which one of these effects is more dominant than the other one our model suggests that the nature of destructive gear along with the level of social dilemma determines whether patient or impatient individuals relatively lower discount factor are more likely to adopt such a gear additionally agent s beliefs regarding future resource condition and other agent s extraction level can have a major influence in some cases

productivity measurement in common property resource industries an application to the pacific coast trawl fishery this article measures total factor productivity in industries that exploit resources held in common particular attention is paid to the valuation and specification of in situ commonproperty resources in a neoclassical production technology catchability of the resource and variations in economic capacity utilization an empirical analysis of the open access pacific coast trawl fishing industry demonstrates that disentangling the productivity residual from changes in resource abundance its catchability and variations in capacity utilization hones the productivity residual to finer precision lowering mean productivity growth by about hak removing biological noise from highly variable resources is also important the results are related to aprogram limiting the number of vessels and can contribute to sustainable resource management whenever resources are held in common

harvesting selectivity and stochastic recruitment in economic models of age structured fisheries abstract we develop the age structured fishery model by including endogenous harvesting selectivity and stochastic recruitment as a growing body of fishery ecological evidence suggests these factors to be critical for fisheries management optimal harvesting selectivity aims to direct fishing towards age classes that are preferable to catch given information on fish growth natural mortality and recruitment in addition to implications on harvesting cost we analytically show that maximum sustainable yield msy leads to potentially serious and previously unrecognized deviation from economic optimality as it neglects the dependence of harvesting costs on gear selectivity we further show that the steady state population level may fall below the msy population even with zero discounting and stock dependent harvesting costs we quantify our results using empirical data for baltic cod applying the age structured model with endogenous harvesting selectivity we find large differences between maximum sustainable yield and the economic optimum although the classic biomass model suggests that these differences should be unimportant stochastic recruitment implies a threefold increase in young age classes but the stochastic solution can be accurately approximated by the certainty equivalence principle