position auctions with consumer search this paper examines a model in which advertisers bid for sponsored link positions on a search engine the value advertisers derive from each position is endogenized as coming from sales to a population of consumers who make rational inferences about rm qualities and search optimally consumer search strategies equilibrium bidding and the welfare benets of position auctions are analyzed implications for reserve prices and a number of other auction design questions are discussed

the dog that did not bark the eitc for single mothers in the netherlands abstract we study the extension of an eitc for single mothers in the netherlands to mothers with a youngest child 12 to 15 years of age this reform increased the net income gain of moving into employment for the treatment group by 31 using both dd and rd we show that this reform had a negligible effect on labour participation with tight confidence intervals around zero our results are at odds with a number of related studies this finding may be due to our treatment group of single mothers of which the youngest child is relatively old or because the reform we consider was less salient furthermore related studies typically study changes in a tax credit which was part of a broader reform package making it harder to isolate the effect of the tax credit also we show that using single women without children as the control group as is commonly done in related studies can be problematic

search platforms showrooming and price parity clauses we provide a model in which consumers can search for rms directly or through a platform the platform lowers search costs and provides convenience benets but charges rms for the transactions it facilitates in equilibrium we show consumers buy through the platform despite rms setting higher prices on the platform higher prices on the platform give rise to the possibility of showrooming in which consumers search on the platform but then switch and buy directly to take advantage of lower direct prices in settings like this search platforms like amazon s marketplace and booking com have adopted price parity clauses requiring rms oer their best prices on the platform arguing this is needed to prevent showrooming we use our model to evaluate the implications of showrooming and price parity clauses

an appraisal of alternative blueprints for international policy coordination this paper examines two schemes for the international coordination of macroeconomic policy using a world econometric model the national institute global econometric model the first is the extended target zone scheme proposed by j williamson and m miller 1987 which involves targeting fundamental equilibrium exchange rates using monetary policy and using fiscal policy to control domestic demand the second uses fiscal policy to target the current account and monetary policy to stabilize domestic demand both schemes are parameterized using optimal control techniques on the national institute global econometric model and the welfare gains in using these schemes compared to historical experience from 1974 to 1986 are assessed

club good intermediaries abstract the emergence and ubiquitous presence in everyday life of digital goods such as songs movies and e books give renewed salience to the problem of providing public goods with exclusion because digital goods are typically traded via intermediaries like itunes amazon and netflix the question arises as to the optimal pricing mechanism for such club good intermediaries we derive the direct bayesian optimal mechanism for allocating club goods when the mechanism designer is an intermediary that neither produces nor consumes the goods and we develop an indirect mechanism that implements this mechanism we also derive sufficient conditions for the intermediary optimal mechanism to be implementable with revenue sharing contracts which are widely used in e business

the economics of two sided markets at a local best buy a child places a new sony playstation 3 on the cashier s counter while the parents dig out their visa card the gaming system and the payment card may appear to have little connection other than this purchase however these two items share an important characteristic that is generating a series of economic insights and has important implications for strategic decision making and economic policymaking both video game systems and payment cards are examples of two sided markets broadly speaking a two sided market is one in which 1 two sets of agents interact through an intermediary or platform and 2 the decisions of each set of agents affects the outcomes of the other set of agents typically through an externality in the case of a video game system the intermediary is the console producer sony in the scenario above while the two sets of agents are consumers and video game developers neither consumers nor game developers will be interested in the playstation if the other party is not similarly a successful payment card requires both consumer usage and merchant acceptance where both consumers and merchants value each others participation many more products fit into this paradigm such as search engines newspapers and almost any advertisersupported media examples in which consumers often negatively value rather than positively value the participation of the other side as well as most software or title based operating systems and consumer electronics malls which seek retailers and consumers convention organizers which seek buyers and sellers dating services which seek men and women and the journal of economic perspectives which seeks content and readership all experience the economics of two sided markets the multi sided nature of many internet and high technology markets as well as

german dominance in the ems evidence from interest rates abstract the paper presents an empirical analysis of german dominance and asymmetries in the ems based on a dynamic system of equations explaining national money market interest rates the hypothesis of strict german dominance of the ems is rejected however there are some noticeable asymmetries in the ems germany is a relatively strong player and has been the least dependent country in the early phase of the system since 1983 german independence has diminished in contrast france throughout and italy in the early phase of the ems have been relatively weak players in the system

research note customer intimacy and cross selling strategy better targeting opportunities and the increasing role of information intensive environments have created new challenges for firms in obtaining customer information such information can help firms increase their profits through cross selling opportunities however revealing personal preferences and contact information can raise the risks for customers when dealing with a firm consequently some customers trade off the benefit and risks of revealing information as the opportunity to obtain a higher level of information increases customers incur a higher level of risk when dealing with a firm this increases the firm s incentive to commit on a cross selling level by such a commitment a firm can obtain customer intimacy and benefit from detailed customer information as a result profits increase while prices decrease thus legal regulations that explicitly require firms to spell out the extent of cross selling may actually improve the profits of the firm

exchange rate behaviour under the ems regime was there any systematic change abstract most empirical studies fail to detect any systematic effects of the ems regime on the economic performance of member countries this reveals the difficulty of constructing controlled experiments which can distinguish what is due to the ems from that due to common external pressures we argue that the crucial step is to examine the exchange rates distribution since no performance improvements will appear if exchange rate behaviour does not change within the ems we find that there are changes in the third and fourth moments which imply that ems currencies have become more fragile and susceptible to shocks particularly negative shocks relative to non ems currencies

the international monetary system an analysis of alternative regimes abstract this is an exercise in the positive economics of alternative monetary regimes the behavior of output and prices is compared using a stochastic specification which allows asymptotic variances to be obtained without difficulty free floating of exchange rates together with national money supply targets is analyzed first with and without the presence of fads in the exchange rate two alternatives for monetary coordination are then considered first is mckinnon s proposal to fix nominal exchange rates and stabilize aggregate monetary growth or average inflation second is williamson s system of target zones for stable real exchange rates complemented by nominal income targets for fiscal policy

the design of multidimensional auctions procurement auctions usually require the bid to specify several characteristics of the contract to be fulfilled in this article i study the design of such mechanisms allowing for a special case of correlation of the firm s costs i describe the properties of optimal mechanisms and study the design of multidimensional auctions contrary to the independent costs model to implement the optimal outcome the procurer will need to use a two stage auction in the first stage the procurer selects one firm in the second stage he bargains to readjust the level of quality to be provided

platform competition in two sided markets many if not most markets with network externalities are two sided to succeed platforms in industries such as software portals and media payment systems and the internet must get both sides of the market on board accordingly platforms devote much attention to their business model that is to how they court each side while making money overall this paper builds a model of platform competition with two sided markets it unveils the determinants of price allocation and end user surplus for different governance structures profit maximizing platforms and not for profit joint undertakings and compares the outcomes with those under an integrated monopolist and a ramsey planner jel l5 l82 l86 l96

internet advertising and the generalized second price auction selling billions of dollars worth of keywords we investigate the generalized second price gsp auction a new mechanism used by search engines to sell online advertising although gsp looks similar to the vickrey clarke groves vcg mechanism its properties are very different unlike the vcg mechanism gsp generally does not have an equilibrium in dominant strategies and truth telling is not an equilibrium of gsp to analyze the properties of gsp we describe the generalized english auction that corresponds to gsp and show that it has a unique equilibrium this is an ex post equilibrium with the same payoffs to all players as the dominant strategy equilibrium of vcg

market provision of broadcasting a welfare analysis this paper presents a theory of the market provision of broadcasting and uses it to address the nature of market failure in the industry advertising levels may be too low or too high depending on the nuisance cost to viewers the substitutability of programs and the expected benefits to advertisers from contacting viewers market provision may allocate too few or too many resources to programming and these resources may be used to produce programs of the wrong type monopoly ownership may produce higher social surplus than competitive ownership and the ability to price programming may reduce social surplus

time consistent collection of optimal seigniorage a unifying framework this paper reviews the existing literature on the time consistency problem of seigniorage collection when monetary policy is determined by optimal taxation considerations it develops a unifying accounting framework and suggests a general measure for seigniorage which encompasses the standard measures employed in the literature in addition the ex ante optimal solution to the optimal taxation problem is derived and interpreted in relation to the ramsey principle we show that the different recommendations of the public finance literature i e the friedman rule of optimal deflation moderately positive inflation and seigniorage maximizing inflation are specific solutions to the optimal taxation problem the paper continues with a formal illustration of the time consistency problem of the ex ante optimal policy and the characterization of the time consistent solution under discretion as possible solutions to the time consistency problem we consider reputational forces institutional reforms that establish central bank independence and specific ways of asset and debt management in particular it is formally shown that a modified version of the asset and debt management scheme suggested by persson persson and svensson is not only necessary but also sufficient for optimality although this did not hold in their model

capital controls and balance of payments crises abstract the theory of balance of payments crises shows that under perfect foresight a system of fixed exchange rate is not sustainable in the presence of diverging economic policies in this paper it is shown how and why capital controls succeed in maintaining the principle of a fixed but adjustable parity both cases of a devaluation and a revaluation are considered and a condition for a parity change to be credible is presented

policy bargains and the problem of model selection abstract parameter uncertainty and disagreements about model specification pose a particular difficulty for economic policy design frankel and rockett argue that if model uncertainty is not explicitly taken into account policy coordination is as likely to decrease welfare as increase it this paper therefore looks at the scope for reducing errors by making strategic model choices part of the overall policy selection procedure it shows that alternative definitions of the policy bargain produces decisions which are robust against disagreements about the correct model while alternative choices of model produce policies which are robust against model uncertainty hence fixed i e model free policy rules are no substitute for making strategic model choices

estimating labour supply responses using tax reforms the 1980 s tax reforms and the changing dispersion of wages offer one of the best opportunities yet to estimate labor supply effects nevertheless changing sample composition aggregate shocks the changing composition of the tax paying population and discontinuities in the tax system create serious identification and estimation problems we develop grouping estimators that address these issues our results reveal positive and moderately sized wage elasticities we also find negative income effects for women with children

delegation in a general equilibrium model of customs unions abstract a difference in the objectives of members of a customs union may be a unifying rather than a divisive force if countries outside the union behave strategically one union member may want to delegate to its partner the ability to set the common external tariff we demonstrate these results in the context of a pure exchange general equilibrium trade model we show that if tariffs are strategic substitutes the union country which is relatively less well endowed in the exported good may be willing to delegate to its partner which behaves more aggressively in setting the union s policy the delegation decision is reversed if tariffs are strategic complements the model extends the standard results on the appropriate level of the union policy by adding another dimension that of the optimal decision making agent

chicken and egg competition among intermediation service providers we analyze a model of imperfect price competition between intermediation service providers we insist on features that are relevant for informational intermediation via the internet the presence of indirect network externalities the possibility of using the nonexclusive services of several intermediaries and the widespread practice of price discrimination based on users identity and on usage efficient market structures emerge in equilibrium as well as some specific form of inefficient structures intermediaries have incentives to propose non exclusive services as this moderates competition and allows them to exert market power we analyze in detail the pricing and business strategies followed by intermediation services providers copyright 2003 by the rand corporation

changes in the labor supply behavior of married women 1980 2000 using march current population survey data we investigate married women s labor supply from 1980 to 2000 we find a large rightward shift in their labor supply function for annual hours in the 1980s with little shift in the 1990s these shifts account for most of the slowdown in the growth of labor supply during this period a major development was the dramatic decrease in the responsiveness of married women s labor supply to their own and husbands wages their own wage elasticity fell by 50 56 while their cross wage elasticity fell by 38 47 in absolute value

does welfare play any role in female headship decisions abstract previous studies have examined whether the welfare system has contributed to the dramatic increase in single parent families this paper explores why the results in this literature are sensitive to the presence of state fixed effects it considers one natural explanation namely that the composition of the population differs across states in ways that are related to welfare program generosity after controlling for individual effects the results provide no evidence that welfare raises the propensity to form female headed households for either whites or blacks these results illustrate the potential pitfalls of assuming that state factors are fixed over a long period of time they also suggest that previous studies may have overstated the effect of welfare programs on family structure

design competition through multidimensional auctions this article studies design competition in government procurement by developing a model of two dimensional auctions wherefirms bid on both price and quality and bids are evaluated by a scoring rule designed by a buyer three auction schemes first score second score and second preferred offer are introduced and related to actual practices if the buyer can commit to a scoring rule in his best interest the resulting optimal scoring rule underrewards quality relative to the buyer s utility function and implements the optimal outcome for the buyer underfirst and second score auctions absent the commitment power the onlyfeasible scoring rule is the buyer s utility function under which 1 all three schemes yield the same expected utility to the buyer and 2 first and second score auctions induce the first best level of quality which turns out to be excessive from the buyer s point of view

seigniorage and the case for national money in countries with high rates of inflation there is typically movement away from the use of the local currency the paper analyzes the costs and benefits of using a local currency with emphasis on the seigniorage foregone by using a foreign money even if it should be desirable for a country to fix its exchange rate it still loses seigniorage if it does not use its own money the case for using a foreign money then turns largely on the superior discipline imposed on domestic policymakers by removing their control over the money supply alternative methods of imposing discipline are discussed estimates of the amount of seigniorage raised by different governments are presented seigniorage amounts in some cases to about 10 percent of government revenue estimates are also presented of both the annual flow and one time stock costs of giving up use of domestic currencies and instead using the dollar the flow cost is typically about 1 percent of gnp and the stock cost is around 10 percent of gnp

job changes and hours changes understanding the path of labor supply adjustment we use british panel data to investigate single women s labor supply changes in response to three reforms that affected individuals work incentives we use these reforms to identify changes in labor supply there is evidence of small hours of work effects for two of such reforms a third reform in 1999 instead led to a significant increase in single mothers hours of work the mechanism by which the labor supply adjustments were made occurred largely through job changes rather than hours changes with the same employer this is little overall effect of the reforms on wages

loss of monetary discretion in a simple dynamic policy game abstract we analyze a simple policy game featuring monetary credibility problems and argue that loss of monetary discretion is not advantageous two elements form the basis of our analysis firstly we endogenize the source of credibility problems and secondly we consider a dynamic framework where credibility problems are not time invariant by doing this we are able to demonstrate that credibility problems are temporary and in steady state the government has removed these through sound policies a binding policy rule will only serve as an obstacle towards this steady state

the limits of independence and the policy of the ecb it is argued that the european central bank s independence is not as secure as it seems and that as a result it has appreciable institutional incentives to protect and enhance its position it follows that its behaviour should not be understood as being solely determined by the pursuit of price stability one consequence is that certain points on which it has been criticised on the basis that its approach makes for ineffective monetary policy might be better understood as often effective attempts to protect its position another is that making a central bank or any other institution completely independent may be much harder than it seems and failed attempts which come close are not necessarily to be preferred even by the advocates of independence to less ambitious designs

the effects of work conditioned transfers on marriage and child well being a review transfer payments to poor families are increasingly conditioned on work although the effects of such programmes on employment are fairly well understood relatively little is known about their effects on marriage or child well being we review a few studies that provide such information here we sketch a theoretical model that draws from the efficient household literature the model is consistent with the wide range of effects that we observe and suggests an explanation for some of the observed differences our theoretical framework likewise explains the observed variation in the effects of such programmes on children social insurance payments increasingly take the form of conditional cash transfers requiring certain types of behaviour from recipients in order to qualify for aid in developed countries the conditions generally take the form of work requirements the american temporary aid to needy families tanf programme requires most recipients to work at least part time benefits from the american earned income tax credit eitc are available only to consumers who work the british working tax credit wtc is available only to consumers who work at least 16 hours per week and the canadian self sufficiency programme ssp which ran during the 1990s provided an earnings supplement to welfare recipients who were willing to leave the dole and take a full time job

fiscal leadership and central bank design this article investigates the impact on economic performance of the timing of moves in a policy game between the government and the central bank for a government that has both redistributional and stabilization objectives it is shown that both inflation and income inequality are reduced without sacrificing output growth if the government assumes a leadership role compared with a regime in which monetary and fiscal policy are determined simultaneously further it is shown that government leadership benefits both the fiscal and monetary authorities through the enhanced coordination that this arrangement implies jel classification e52 e61 f42

inflationary finance under discrepion and rules inflationary finance involves first the tax on cash balances from expected inflation and second a capital levy from unexpected inflation from the standpoint of minimizing distortions these capital levies are attractive ex post to the policymaker in a full equilibrium two conditions hold 1 the monetary authority optimizes subject to people s expectations mechanisms and 2 people form expectations rationally given their knowledge of the policymaker s objectives the outcomes under discretionary policy are contrasted with those generated under rules in a purely discretionary regime the monetary authority can make no meaningful commitments about the future behavior of money and prices under an enforced rule it becomes possible to make some guarantees hence the links between monetary actions and inflationary expectations can be internalized there is a distinction between fully contingent rules and rules of simple form a simple rule allows the internalization of some connections between policy act ion and inflationary expectations but discretion permits some desirable flexibility of monetary growth this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

bayes nash equilibria of the generalized second price auction abstract we develop a bayes nash analysis of the generalized second price gsp auction the multi unit auction used by search engines to sell sponsored advertising positions our main result characterizes the efficient bayes nash equilibrium of the gsp and provides a necessary and sufficient condition that guarantees existence of such an equilibrium with only two positions this condition requires that the click through rate of the second position is sufficiently smaller than that of the first when an efficient equilibrium exists we provide a necessary and sufficient condition for the auction revenue to decrease as click through rates increase interestingly under optimal reserve prices revenue increases with the click through rates of all positions further we prove that no inefficient equilibrium of the gsp can be symmetric our results are in sharp contrast with the previous literature that studied the gsp under complete information

targeted advertising strategies on television the personal video recorder pvr facilitates the use of targeted advertising by allowing companies to monitor television viewing behavior and to build demographic profiles of viewers from the data that are collected our research explores the extent to which an advertiser should allocate resources to increase the quality of its targeting we present a game theoretic model that extends the conventional measurement of targeting quality by exploring the trade off between two measures accuracy and recognition accuracy measures the likelihood that any target segment prediction is correct while recognition conversely measures the likelihood that any member of the target segment is identified we find that the relative resources allocated to improving accuracy and recognition depend upon the size of the population of viewers the propensity of viewers to skip commercials the overall cost of airing commercials and the competitive environment furthermore the incentives to improve accuracy are markedly different from those to improve recognition although improving accuracy does not affect the extent of price competition improving recognition leads to intensified price competition and reduced profitability in the product market thus when facing a competitor that pursues a strategy to improve its recognition of potential customers an advertiser should choose to reduce its investment in recognition and increase its investment in accuracy

correlated information and mechanism design in models of asymmetric information possession of private information leads to rents for the possessors this induces mechanism designers to distort away from efficiency the authors show that this is an artifact of the presumption that information is independently distributed rent extraction in a large class of mechanism design games is analyzed and a necessary and sufficient condition for arbitrarily small rents to private information is provided additionally the two person bargaining game is shown to have an efficient solution under first order stochastic dominance and a hazard rate condition similar conditions allow full rent extraction in milgrom weber auctions

welfare effects on female headship with area effects the existing literature on welfare effects on female headship in the united states shows significant positive correlations in cross section possibly increasing over time however when geographic or area effects are permitted in the estimation these correlations either disappear or reverse in sign the results have implications for the study of welfare effects in other countries including canada where benefits vary considerably across provinces and localities within them

the effects of in work benefit reform in britain on couples theory and evidence this paper examines the effects of the working families tax credit wftc on couples in britain we develop a simple model of household decisions which explicitly accounts for the role played by the tax and benefit system its main implications are then tested using panel data from the british household panel survey collected between 1991 and 2002 overall the financial incentives of the reform had negligible effects on a wide range of married mothers decisions such as eligible working at least 16 hours per week and full time employment working at least 30 hours per week employment transitions childcare use and divorce rates women s responses however were highly heterogeneous depending on their partners labour supply and earnings mothers married to low income men showed larger responses in employment especially if they had younger children they were more likely to remain in the labour force and had higher rates at which they entered it while more likely to receive the tax credit they also experienced a greater risk of divorce we find virtually no effect for women with higher income husbands likewise there are no statistically significant responses among married men

gold monetization and gold discipline gold and its price have emerged as frequent topics of both academic and government debate 2 public attention focused on the gold market since gold s price began fluctuating violently in 1980 and 1981 has turned to gold as a possible means of removing some discretion inherent in the current fiat money system since lack of adherence to monetary rules can lead to problems of dynamic policy inconsistency academic economists have begun seriously to reconsider monetary standards based either on gold or on some other commodity as politically feasible methods of establishing rules 3

the advantage of tying one s hands ems discipline and central bank credibility abstract it is often argued that the ems is an effective disciplinary device for inflation prone countries in europe since it forces the respective policy makers to pursue more restrictive monetary policies than they would otherwise it is not clear however why these countries should submit themselves to such discipline this paper argues that to answer this question appropriately one must consider that ems membership brings potentially large credibility gains policy makers in inflation prone countries the reason is that not only it attaches an extra penalty to inflation in terms of real appreciation but makes the public aware that the policy maker is faced with such penalty and thus helps to overcome the inefficiency stemming from the public s mistrust of the authorities

target zones and international policy coordination the contrast between the necessary and sufficient conditions for success abstract this paper distinguishes between the necessary and sufficient conditions for adopting exchange rate target zones for improving macroeconomic performance the necessary conditions are easily satisfied but it is much more difficult to design a targetting system which satisfies the sufficient conditions when the exchange rate is an intermediate target on that criterion the gains may be smaller than previously estimated however target zones have important practical advantage they are effective in promoting stability and as a simple but uncontroversial way of securing the coordination necessary to prevent policy makers adopting inefficient or competitive policies

competition among sellers who offer auctions instead of prices abstract in this paper we study a large market in which sellers compete by offering auctions to buyers instead of simple fixed price contracts two variants of the model are studied one extends a model first analyzed by wolinsky rev econ stud 55 1988 71 84 in which buyers learn their valuations only after meeting sellers the other variant extends the model of mcafee econometrica61 1993 1281 1312 in which buyers know their valuations before they choose among available auctions the equilibrium array of auctions is characterized for each case and the efficiency properties of the equilibria are analyzed journal of economic literatureclassification numbers d41 d44 d82

transparency reputation and credibility under floating and pegged exchange rates this paper shows that if the cost of importing foreign inflation and real exchange rate shocks are not too high then the equilibrium nominal exchange rate regime for a country with a credibility problem is a peg under which credibility is higher and inflation is lower than under a float this holds true although devaluations of the pegged rate are assumed to be costless the reason is that as realized inflation is not perfectly controllable planned inflation under a float is private information in contrast since the exchange rate can be perfectly controlled pegging resolves the private information problem is more transparent and makes reputation more effective

paying for prominence we investigate three ways in which firms can become prominent and thereby influence the order in which consumers consider options first firms can affect an intermediary s sales efforts by means of commission payments when firms pay commission to a salesman the salesman promotes the product with the highest commission and steers ignorant consumers towards the more expensive product second sellers can advertise prices on a price comparison website so that consumers investigate the suitability of products in order of increasing price in such a market equilibrium prices are lower when search costs are higher since a firm s benefit from being investigated first increases with search costs finally consumers might first consider their existing supplier when they purchase a new product which suggests a relatively benign rationale for the prevalence of cross selling in markets such as retail banking

two sided markets a progress report the paper provides a road map to the burgeoning literature on two sided markets and presents new results it identifies two sided markets with markets in which the structure and not only the level of prices charged by platforms matters the failure of the coase theorem is necessary but not sufficient for two sidedness the paper builds a model integrating usage and membership externalities that unifies two hitherto disparate strands of the literature emphasizing either form of externality and obtains new results on the mix of membership and usage charges when price setting or bargaining determine payments between end users

optimal information disclosure a sender randomly draws a prospect characterized by its profitability to the sender and its relevance to a receiver the receiver observes only a signal provided by the sender and accepts the prospect if his bayesian inference about the prospect s relevance exceeds his opportunity cost the sender s profits are typically maximized by partial information disclosure whereby the receiver is induced to accept less relevant but more profitable prospects switches by pooling them with more relevant but less profitable ones baits extensions include maximizing a weighted sum of sender profits and receiver surplus and allowing the sender to use monetary incentives

optimal auction design in two sided markets a key feature of online markets for advertising e g sponsored links is that clicking rates depend on the searchers expectations that the platform selects relevant advertisers this article studies auction design by a platform that maximizes profits in the long run where clicking rates are mechanism dependent in line with the practice of the major search engines the revenue maximizing mechanism is a scoring auction that combines the willingness to pay and the relevance to searchers of advertisers by trading off rent extraction and clicking volume this mechanism works as a cross subsidization device between searchers and advertisers

the socioeconomic consequences of in work benefit reform for british lone mothers in october 1999 the british government enacted the working families tax credit which aimed at encouraging work among low income families with children this paper uses panel data collected between 1991 and 2001 to evaluate the effect of this reform on single mothers we find that the reform led to a substantial increase in their employment rate of about five percentage points which was driven by both a higher rate at which lone mothers remained in the labor force and a higher rate at which they entered it women s responses were highly heterogeneous with effects double this size for mothers with one preschool aged child and virtually no effect for mothers with multiple older children the employment increase was accompanied by significant increases in paid childcare utilization and our analysis in fact suggests that the generous childcare credit component of the reform played a key role in explaining the estimated employment and childcare usage responses we also find that the increase in labor market participation was accompanied by reductions in single mothers subsequent fertility and in the rate at which they married behavioral responses which in turn are likely to influence the reform s overall impact on child poverty and welfare

international policy design and the sustainability of policy bargains events of the past decade and the persistence of the worldwide recession have underlined the interdependence of the major economics competitive devaluations first illustrated the dangers of unilateral decisions and politicians have regularly called for concerted policies since the bonn economic summit in 1978 economic theory has shown that coordinated policies can bring gains but the question of whether those gains will be significant and how they will be distributed remains unanswered remarkably few empirical results on how interdependence should affect policy design or even on the signs of spillovers between economies have been produced this paper estimates the costs of uncoordinated policies to the us and eec economies and also the potential gains and risks in cooperation it focuses particularly on the process of determining rational policy bargains and whether in an international context such bargains are likely to be sustainable

prominence and consumer search this article examines the implications of prominence in search markets we model prominence by supposing that the prominent firm will be sampled first by all consumers if there are no systematic quality differences among firms we find that the prominent firm will charge a lower price than its less prominent rivals making a firm prominent will typically lead to higher industry profit but lower consumer surplus and welfare the model is extended by introducing heterogeneous product qualities in which case the firm with the highest quality product has the greatest incentive to become prominent and making it prominent will boost industry profit consumer surplus and welfare

platform pricing at sports card conventions platform pricing at sports card conventions we study a new data set of us sports card conventions in order to evaluate the pricing theory of two sided markets conventions are two sided because organizers must set fees to attract both consumers and dealers we have detailed information on consumer price dealer price and since most conventions are local the market structure for conventions we present several findings first consumer pricing decreases with competition at any reasonable distance but pricing to dealers is insensitive to competition and in longer distances even increases with competition second when consumer price is zero and thus constrained dealer price decreases more strongly with competition these results are compatible with existing models of two sided markets but are difficult to explain without such models

on the imperfect substitutability of policy regimes exchange rate targetting vs policy coordination abstract exchange rate targetting is always an imperfect substitute for explicit policy coordination but succeeds when economies are either structurally dissimilar with symmetric shocks or structurally symmetric with dissimilar shocks a joint commitment then generates economies of scale in interventions

child care voucher and labour market behaviour experimental evidence from finland this article provides experimental estimates of the impact of a voucher for private care on labour force participation and use of private and public child care within the nordic system of universal provision of public care in a market that was providing high quality low cost public child care a voucher is nevertheless found to have a significant positive effect for the use of private child care with zero effects on either use of public care or labour force participation the use of private increased by five percentage points in the whole country and by five to seven percentage points in areas that suffer from excess demand for child care as a result of the introduction of the private child care voucher

optimal auction design and equilibrium selection in sponsored search auctions in analyses of sponsored search auctions for online advertising it is customary to model the dynamic game of incomplete information by considering a static game of complete infor mation this approach is used in benjamin edelman michael ostrovsky and michael schwarz 2007 eos hal r varian 2007 and the subsequent literature modeling complex interactions in uncertain environments as games of complete information has a long history for example the bertrand model of oligopolistic competition posits that companies know their competitors costs based on their experience from prior interactions the use of a static game of complete infor mation often offers important benefits for one it is tractable avoiding complex multi period information sets in a dynamic game furthermore a suitably chosen static game can capture important characteristics of the under lying dynamic game when a game is repeated over an extended period there is good reason to think participants will learn many characteris tics of their counterparts supporting the use of a complete information model yet the use of a static game of complete information is also unsatisfying there is no clear way to identify which if any equilibria of the static game of complete information are a relevant approximation of the equilibria of the dynamic game of incomplete information

estimating the effect of financial aid offers on college enrollment a regression discontinuity approach an important problem faced by colleges and universities that of evaluating the effect of their financial aid offers on student enrollment decisions is complicated by the likely endogeneity of the aid offer variable in a student enrollment equation this article shows how discontinuities in an east coast college s aid assignment rule can be exploited to obtain credible estimates of the aid effect without having to rely on arbitrary exclusion restrictions and functional form assumptions semiparametric estimates based on a regression discontinuity rd approach affirm the importance of financial aid as an effective instrument in competing with other colleges for students

the impact of targeting technology on advertising markets and media competition an important component of advertising effectiveness is the quality of the match between advertisers and the intended recipients of ads traditionally media have been able to tighten such matches by providing content tailored for specific groups of consumers for example local media outlets attract audiences from their localities ensuring that when local advertis ers place ads they are mostly viewed by their potential customer base recently online adver tising has afforded new technologies that tar get consumers directly rather than indirectly through tailored content a leading example of such targeting is based on geographic loca tion as inferred from ip addresses so while the boston globe may have had an advantage in selling ads to boston advertisers now the new york times can offer boston based ads to consumers located in boston industry specula tion is that such technologies may spur higher demand for online advertising but that these technologies will benefit general outlets more than local newspapers 1 it may be problematic for the future of the local news industry if gen eral outlets gain at their expense to date there has been little analysis on how the market for advertising might be impacted by targeting 2 intuition suggests that an outlet

nafta and the environment what can the data tell us abstract critics of trade liberalization agreements such as the north american free trade agreement nafta have expressed concerns that polluting industries will locate in developing countries to evade more stringent regulation with adverse environmental consequences a study of nafta s effects on u s mexico trade finds that despite differences in the stringency of u s and mexican environmental policies nafta did not cause mexico to specialize in dirtier industries between 1989 and 1999 regarding the location of manufacturing production during the nafta transition although growth was fastest in the congested mexican border region growth declined in the congested central region and increased in the less congested interior region with all regions shifting toward less polluting industries most of the observed measures of air quality in the border region which can serve as an indicator of nafta s short term scale effects do not exhibit significant breaks in their trend of improvement

evaluating the employment impact of a mandatory job search program this paper exploits area based piloting and age related eligibility rules to identify treatment effects of a labor market program the new deal for young people in the u k a central focus is on substitution displacement effects and on equilibrium wage effects the program includes extensive job assistance and wage subsidies to employers we find that the impact of the program significantly raised transitions to employment by about 5 percentage points the impact is robust to a wide variety of nonexperimental estimators however we present some evidence that this effect may not be as large in the longer run jel j18 j23 j38

female labour supply human capital and welfare reform we estimate a dynamic model of employment human capital accumulation including education and savings for women in the united kingdom exploiting tax and benefit reforms and use it to analyze the effects of welfare policy we find substantial elasticities for labor supply and particularly for lone mothers returns to experience which are important in determining the longer term effects of policy increase with education but experience mainly accumulates when in full time employment tax credits are welfare improving in the u k increase lone mother labor supply and marginally reduce educational attainment but the employment effects do not extend beyond the period of eligibility marginal increases in tax credits improve welfare more than equally costly increases in income support or tax cuts

full extraction of the surplus in bayesian and dominant strategy auctions we consider auctions for a single indivisible object in the case where the bidders have information about each other which is not available to the seller we show that the seller can use this information to his own benefit and we completely characterize the environ ments in which a well chosen auction gives him the same expected payoff as that obtainable were he able to sell the object with full information about each bidder s willingness to pay we provide this characterization for auctions in which the bidders have dominant strate gies and for those where the relevant equilibrium concept is bayesian nash in both set ups the existence of these auctions hinges on the possibility of constructing lotteries with the correct properties we consider the situation in which an agent the seller possesses one indivisible unit of a good to which he attaches no value but the good has value to a number of potential buyers and its transfer to one of them would increase social welfare in particular the transfer to the buyer with the highest valuation maximizes social welfare in this paper we completely characterize environments in which the seller can design an auction that will enable him to capture for himself the full increase in social welfare induced by the transfer of the good to the bidder with the highest willingness to pay if the seller had full information about the reservation prices of potential buyers his optimal selling strategy would be very simple he would announce a price equal or very close to the highest reservation value the optimal strategy for the bidder with the highest evaluation would be to accept the offer note that we are treating a situation in which the seller can commit himself to a price as a result of the exchange the utility of the seller increases by the full amount of the increase in social welfare and he has been able to fully extract the surplus in many circumstances however a seller has only imperfect knowledge of the buyers willingnesses to pay in this case he must find some mechanism or auction which will enable him to maximize his benefit from the sale of the object the auction literature starts with this observation and shows how the seller can by an astute choice of auction extract the largest possible fraction of the surplus in general the literature has shown that this proportion is strictly less than one in some circumstances the bidders will have information about each other which is not available to the seller for instance in auctions for petroleum drilling rights bidders know the results of geological tests which they have

segmentation advertising and prices this paper explores the implications of market segmentation on firm competitiveness in contrast to earlier work here market segmentation is minimal in the sense that it is based on consumer attributes that are completely unrelated to tastes we show that when the market is comprised by two consumer segments and when there is sufficient variation in the per consumer costs firms need to incur to access the different consumer populations then firms obtain positive profits in symmetric equilibrium otherwise the equilibrium is characterized by zero profits as a result a minimal form of market segmentation combined with advertising cost asymmetries across consumer segments give firms an opportunity to generate positive rents in an otherwise bertrand like environment

the phillips curve the persistence of inflation and the lucas critique evidence from exchange rate regimes comment we present evidence from the united states and the united kingdom that the persistence of price inflation is significantly higher under managed exchange rate regimes than under gold based fixed exchange rate regimes these differences are also reflected in expectations augmented phillips curves we use a two country macro model with forward looking price setters to demonstrate that higher monetary accommodation of inflation and exchange rate accommodation of inflation differentials increase inflation persistence the evidence does not contradict this hypothesis it supports the hypothesis of forward looking price setters and highlights the empirical significance of the lucas critique jel e31 e42 f33

distributional impacts of the self sufficiency project a large literature has been concerned with the impacts of recent welfare reforms on income earnings transfers and labor force attachment while one strand of this literature relies on observational studies conducted with large survey sample data sets a second makes use of data generated by experimental evaluations of changes to means tested programs much of the overall literature has focused on mean impacts in this paper we use random assignment experimental data from canada s self sufficiency project ssp to look at impacts of this unique reform on the distributions of income earnings and transfers ssp offered members of the treatment group a generous subsidy for working full time quantile treatment effect qte estimates show there was considerable heterogeneity in the impacts of ssp on the distributions of earnings transfers and total income this heterogeneity would be missed by looking only at average treatment effects moreover these heterogeneous impacts are consistent with the predictions of labor supply theory during the period when the subsidy is available the ssp impact on the earnings distribution is zero for the bottom half of the distribution the quantiles of the ssp earnings distribution are higher for much of the upper third of the distribution except at the very top where the quantiles of the earnings distribution are the same under either program or possibly lower under ssp further during the period when ssp receipt was possible the impacts on the quantiles of the distributions of transfer payments income assistance plus the subsidy and total income earnings plus transfers are also different at different points of the distribution in particular positive impacts on the quantiles of the transfer distribution are concentrated at the lower end of the transfer distribution while positive impacts on the quantiles of the income distribution are concentrated in the upper end of the income distribution impacts of ssp on these distributions were essentially zero after the subsidy was no longer available

the effect of social benefits on youth employment combining regression discontinuity and a behavioral model natural experiments provide robust identifying assumptions for the estimation of policy effects yet their use for policy design is often limited by the difficulty of extrapolating on the basis of reduced form estimates in this study we exploit an age condition in the eligibility for social assistance in france which lends itself to a regression discontinuity rd design we suggest making the underlying labor supply model explicit that is translating the reduced form discontinuity in terms of discontinuous changes in disposable incomes this exercise shows the potential of combining natural experiments and behavioral models in particular we can test the external validity of the combined approach we find that it predicts the effect of a subsequent reform which extends transfers to the working poor remarkably well the model is then used to simulate the extension of social assistance to young people and finds that a transfer program with an in work component would not create further disincentives to work in this population

welfare the earned income tax credit and the labor supply of single mothers during 1984 1996 welfare and tax policy were changed to encourage work by single mothers the earned income tax credit was expanded welfare benets were cut welfare time limits were added and welfare cases were terminated medicaid for the working poor was expanded as were training programs and child care during this same time period there were unprecedented increases in the employment and hours of single mothers we show that a large share of the increase in work by single mothers can be attributed to the eitc and other tax changes with smaller shares for welfare benet cuts welfare waivers training programs and child care programs