short run price and income elasticity of gasoline demand evidence from lebanon abstract we empirically estimate the demand for gasoline in the presence of multiple shifts caused by structural breaks using monthly data from lebanon covering the period 2000 m1 2010 m12 consistent with most studies in the literature our study reports that gasoline is price and income inelastic in the short run however when a single and multiple breaks are introduced the consumers responsiveness to gasoline price and income increase since both price and income elasticity are sensitive to structural changes a policy that pleads for a flat excise tax may not be optimal with respect to either the cyclical pattern of government revenues or the internalization of international environment standards

fuel consumption for road transport in the usa abstract this study provides both a historical analysis of fuel demand for road transport and an example of using econometric results for projections fuel consumption by all motor vehicles in the usa has been analysed by splitting total demand into passenger car truck and other demands distance travelled and fuel efficiency equations have been estimated for both the passenger car fleet and trucks an essentially five equation model has been constructed and used to simulate likely fuel demand patterns up to 1990

the demand for gasoline abstract sufficient time must be allowed to elapse to assess fully the response of gasoline demand to price changes hitherto empirical work on the subject has generally not examined the period beyond 1975 moreover the extant time series studies concentrate almost exclusively on the usa this study extends both the observation period and the country coverage a vehicle stock adjustment model is estimated via its reduced form without explicit consideration of the vehicle stock itself however the estimation procedure incorporates the structure by way of constraints on the parameters cross section analysis offers additional evidence concerning the truly long run price elasticity the results suggest that there is no need to resort to elaborate models to explain adequately gasoline demand gasoline demand exhibits a long run price elasticity near unity with time lags exceeding six years while there is tentative evidence that the duration of these lags is not fixed

stock watson dynamic ols dols and error correction modelling approaches to estimating long and short run elasticities in a demand function new evidence and methodological implications from an application to the demand for coal in mainland china in this paper robust elasticity estimates of coal demand for china are derived using annual data 1953 92 in so doing we illustrate the use of a powerful yet practically convenient and recently developed modelling procedure devised by stock and watson known as dynamic ols dols who provide evidence based on monte carlo simulations of this estimator being superior in small samples compared to a number of alternative estimators as well as being able not only to accommodate higher orders of integration but also to account for possible simultaneity within regressors of a potential demand system furthermore cointegration and error correction methods are employed to derive short run price and income elasticities estimated results are quite robust not only in terms of statistical prowess but also in terms of economic intuition and indicate that over the long run both price and income elasticities are close to unity while short run price and income elasticities are less in absolute value than their long run counterparts there seems to be some divergence in short run parameters from a subsample analysis overall results seem to imply that for china coal consumption should remain relatively constant as future modernization strategies for economic development are pursued in addition the study has clear methodological implications for estimating the long and short run elasticities in a demand function in general and in a wide variety of fields in future applied research

fuel demand in brazil in a dynamic panel data approach abstract the purpose of this paper is to evaluate the sensitivity of fuel consumers regarding price and income taking recent changes in the brazilian fuel market into account in this market new market rules energy policy towards fuel diversification and introduction of flex fuel engines have determined fuel competition among gasoline ethanol and compressed natural gas using a dynamic panel data model demand equations for these three fuels are econometrically estimated to obtain consumer adjustment coefficients price cross price and income elasticities in the short and long run in addition the effect of the introduction of flex fuel engines in the market and the rationality of consumers towards efficiency constraints of the engines were tested apart from considerable competition results show that the dynamics of the brazilian fuel market revolves around ethanol instead of gasoline while demands for gasoline and natural gas are inelastic to price demand for ethanol is elastic in brazil furthermore after the introduction of the flex fuel technology the sensitivity of consumers to fuel prices changed and ethanol consumers take efficiency constrains into account when ethanol prices reach the threshold of 70 of gasoline prices

the future of uk final user energy demand anticipation of final user energy demand is central to suppliers and policy makers plans recent developments in dynamic econometrics such as the cointegration approach have enabled energy modellers to study long run relationships between demand and its determinants principally economic activity and real prices the purpose of this paper is to present the seecem output elasticity estimates and forecasts using the cointegration approach as well as the methodology and analysis underlying them as economic activity is expected to grow in all but the iron and steel sector the long run relationships indicate that most sectors will increase overall fuel use up to the year 2000 despite weak but potentially volatile world oil prices and given stable environmental policies average real oil prices should remain broadly constant except in the transport sector economic activity elasticities and increased competition in supply industries imply that natural gas and electricity are likely to take an increasing share of final user requirements at the expense of petroleum products and coal this gradual and continued shift towards cleaner fuels is likely to ameliorate adverse environmental consequences resulting from the overall growth in final user fuel demand

gasoline prices gasoline consumption and new vehicle fuel economy evidence for a large sample of countries abstract countries differ considerably in terms of the price drivers pay for gasoline this paper uses data for 132 countries for the period 1995 2008 to investigate the implications of these differences for the consumption of gasoline for road transport to address the potential for simultaneity bias we use both a country s oil reserves and the international crude oil price as instruments for a country s average gasoline pump price we obtain estimates of the long run price elasticity of gasoline demand of between 0 2 and 0 5 using newly available data for a sub sample of 43 countries we also find that higher gasoline prices induce consumers to substitute to vehicles that are more fuel efficient with an estimated elasticity of 0 2 despite the small size of our elasticity estimates there is considerable scope for low price countries to achieve gasoline savings and vehicle fuel economy improvements via reducing gasoline subsidies and or increasing gasoline taxes

modelling energy demand of developing countries are the specific features adequately captured abstract this paper critically reviews existing energy demand forecasting methodologies highlighting the methodological diversities and developments over the past four decades in order to investigate whether the existing energy demand models are appropriate for capturing the specific features of developing countries the study finds that two types of approaches econometric and end use accounting are commonly used in the existing energy demand models although energy demand models have greatly evolved since the early seventies key issues such as the poor rich and urban rural divides traditional energy resources and differentiation between commercial and non commercial energy commodities are often poorly reflected in these models while the end use energy accounting models with detailed sectoral representations produce more realistic projections as compared to the econometric models they still suffer from huge data deficiencies especially in developing countries development and maintenance of more detailed energy databases further development of models to better reflect developing country context and institutionalizing the modelling capacity in developing countries are the key requirements for energy demand modelling to deliver richer and more reliable input to policy formulation in developing countries

an empirical analysis of gasoline demand in denmark using cointegration techniques abstract danish time series data covering the period 1948 1991 are used in order to estimate short run and long run elasticities in gasoline demand a cointegration test for a stable long run relationship between the variables in the model proves to be positive showing a smaller value of the long run price elasticity than often quoted in empirical studies of gasoline demand finally an error correction model is estimated

empirical assessment of the determinants of road energy demand in greece this paper attempts to cast light on the determinants of road energy demand in greece for this purpose we used cointegration techniques and vector autoregression var analysis in order to capture short run and long run dynamics for gasoline and diesel demand respectively from the empirical analysis that covers the period 1978 2003 we find that in the long run gasoline energy demand appears to be price and income inelastic while diesel demand appears to be price inelastic and income elastic we also found that the absence of close substitutes in the road sector denotes the low level of energy switching in greece

gasoline consumption and the stock of motor vehicles an empirical analysis for the swiss economy abstract the demand for gasoline and the stock of cars is empirically explained for the swiss economy by applying statistical methods from modern time series analysis to annual data over the period 1962 1985 the short run price and income elasticities of gasoline consumption are 0 3 to 0 45 and 0 7 the price elasticity became substantially higher after the first opec shock in 1973 pollution control measures introduced in 1982 negatively affected the stock of cars longer run effects operating over changes in the size of the stock and the fuel efficiency of cars are stretched out over several years as shown by a variety of simulation experiments

cointegration and the demand for gasoline since the early 1970s there has been a worldwide upsurge in the price of energy and in particular of gasoline therefore demand functions for energy and its components like gasoline have received much attention however since confidence in the estimated demand functions is important for use in policy and forecasting following amarawickrama h a hunt l c 2008 electricity demand for sri lanka a time series analysis energy economics 33 724 739 this paper estimates the demand for gasoline is estimated with five alternative time series techniques with data from fiji estimates with these alternative techniques are very close and thus increase our confidence in them we found that gasoline demand is both price and income inelastic

short and long run elasticities of gasoline demand in india an empirical analysis using cointegration techniques abstract in developing countries like india consumption of petroleum products has implications on its balance of payments economic growth and fiscal deficit gasoline is one of the prime petroleum products in this paper the relationship between gasoline demand national income and price of gasoline is empirically examined using cointegration and error correction techniques the time frame of the analysis is from 1972 1973 to 1993 1994 it has been found that gasoline demand is likely to increase significantly for a given increase in the gross domestic product the increase will be larger in the long run 2 682 than in the short run 1 178 gasoline demand is relatively inelastic to price changes both in the long and short terms the error correction model has shown that gasoline demand adjusts to their respective long run equilibrium at a relatively slow rate with about 28 of adjustment taking place in the first year

oligopolistic competition and international trade quantity and quality restrictions abstract we examine trade restrictions such as quantity and quality limitations on imports in an oligopolistic industry consisting of foreign and domestic firms we find that the effects of trade policy hinge on the location of the quality produced by the firms in the quality spectrum a quota leads to positive protection while minimum quality standards leads to negative protection furthermore minimum standards lower national welfare and a quota has an ambiguous effect on welfare

elasticities of gasoline demand in switzerland abstract using cointegration techniques we investigate the determinants of gasoline demand in switzerland over the period 1970 2008 we obtain a very weak price elasticity of 0 09 in the short run and 0 34 in the long run for fuel demand i e gasoline plus diesel the corresponding price elasticities are 0 08 and 0 27 our rich dataset allows working with quarterly data and with more explicative variables than usual in this literature in addition to the traditional price and income variables we account for variables like vehicle stocks fuel prices in neighbouring countries oil shocks and fuel taxes all of these additional variables are found to be significant determinants of demand

trends in income and price elasticities of transport demand 1850 2010 the purpose of this paper is to estimate trends in income and price elasticities and to offer insights for the future growth in transport use with particular emphasis on the impact of energy and technological transitions the results indicate that income and price elasticities of passenger transport demand in the united kingdom were very large 3 1 and 1 5 respectively in the mid nineteenth century and declined since then in 2010 long run income and price elasticity of aggregate land transport demand were estimated to be 0 8 and 0 6 these trends suggest that future elasticities related to transport demand in developed economies may decline very gradually and in developing economies where elasticities are often larger they will probably decline more rapidly as the economies develop because of the declining trends in elasticities future energy and technological transitions are not likely to generate the growth rates in energy consumption that occurred following transitions in the nineteenth century nevertheless energy and technological transitions such as the car and the airplane appear to have delayed and probably will delay declining trends in income and price elasticity of aggregate land transport demand

evaluating a seasonal fuel tax in a mass tourism destination a case study for the balearic islands abstract this paper estimates the monthly aggregate demand for diesel oil and gasoline in a mass tourism region characterized for a high level of seasonality using time series models price elasticities are estimated with special emphasis in evaluating differences between seasons in order to assess the consequences of a fuel tax applied exclusively during the high season using the case study of the balearic islands spain from january 1999 to december 2010 results from a partial adjustment model show a relatively low price elasticity evidencing how the internalizing mechanism that could be argued for introducing the tax in order to reduce transport externalities does not work additionally no statistical differences have been found between seasons for both fuels invalidating the argument that tourism activity reacts differently to host activity

estimating the demand for gasoline in developing countries senegal abstract this paper estimates the aggregate demand for gasoline in senegal from 1970 to 2008 the long term and short term elasticities of demand with respect to gasoline prices and income are of paramount interest in this study in senegal rising food prices unemployment and shortage of electric supply are always associated with the spiking cost of world oil prices to understand the external shocks of world oil price and demand for gasoline in senegal this study tested a log linear model against the linear model of the demand for oil function with lagged dependent variables as an explanatory variable here the linear specification of the demand for oil is rejected in this study in favor of the log linear the natural log transformation is typical when using high frequency data and significantly reduces skewness and kurtosis generally in this study i found that short run elasticity is smaller than long run elasticity and gasoline demand is inelastic with respect to both price and income for both the short and long runs in senegal this is why researcher like moosa posits that this assertion can be rationalised on the grounds that oil is such an important commodity that does not have close substitutes at least for its uses 1998 p 3

estimation of the effects of price on apartment water demand using cointegration and error correction techniques abstractwater price is a key instrument in regulating water demand in the residential sector many empirical studies have assessed the effects of price through quantifying the price elasticity of water demand however most of these studies have mainly focused on the single family housing rather the multifamily housing an in depth understanding of the price elasticity of multifamily housing water demand is paramount for water planners in order to properly manage water use in the fast growing intensive housing developments in urban areas this study investigates both the long term and short term price elasticities of water demand in the residential apartments in auckland central city using 6 years of monthly time series data the price elasticities were estimated through cointegration and error correction methods the results showed that the price elasticities of water demand were 0 14 and 0 12 in the short term and the long term respectively the price is inelastic yet negative and statistically sign

measuring global gasoline and diesel price and income elasticities abstract price and income elasticities of transport fuel demand have numerous applications they help forecast increases in fuel consumption as countries get richer they help develop appropriate tax policies to curtail consumption help determine how the transport fuel mix might evolve and show the price response to a fuel disruption given their usefulness it is understandable why hundreds of studies have focused on measuring such elasticities for gasoline and diesel fuel consumption in this paper i focus my attention on price and income elasticities in the existing studies to see what can be learned from them i summarize the elasticities from these historical studies i use statistical analysis to investigate whether income and price elasticities seem to be constant across countries with different incomes and prices although income and price elasticities for gasoline and diesel fuel are not found to be the same at high and low incomes and at high and low prices patterns emerge that allow me to develop suggested price and income elasticities for gasoline and diesel demand for over one hundred countries i adjust these elasticities for recent fuel mix policies and suggest an agenda of future research topics

fuel demand on uk roads and dieselisation of fuel economy abstract because of high oil prices and climate change policy governments are now seeking ways to improve new car fuel economy thus contributing to air quality and energy security one strategy is to increase dieselisation rates of the vehicle fleet recent trends in fuel economy show improvement since 1995 however efforts need to go further if the eu voluntary agreement targets on co 2 a greenhouse gas emission standard are to be achieved trends show diesel car sales have accelerated rapidly and that the advantage of new car fuel economy of diesel cars over gasoline ones is narrowing posing a new challenge we estimate the demand for new car fuel economy in the uk in the long run consumers buy fuel economy but not in the short run we found that long term income and price changes were the main drivers to achieve improvements particularly for diesel cars and that there is no break in the trend of fuel economy induced by the agreement adopted in the 1990s policy should target more closely both consumer choice of and use of diesel cars

estimating long run economic equilibria with stochastic trends an asymptotic theory is provided to analyze a menu of currently existing estimators of cointegrated systems we study in detail the single equation ecm seecm approach of hendry our theoretical results lead to prescriptions for empirical work such as specifying seecm s nonlinearly and including lagged equilibrium relationships rather than lagged differences of the dependent variable as covariates simulations support these prescriptions and point to problems of overfitting not encountered in the semiparametric approach of phillips and hansen 1990