mixing and matching prospective financial sector mergers and market valuation abstract which types of mergers are likely to be most productive for banks and other financial firms in the us from a management perspective mixing disparate firms may be difficult but may offer significant gains from diversification the opposite applies to matching similar firms this paper considers life insurance property and casualty insurance securities and commercial firms as potential matches for banks it examines a measure of diversification gains from potential consolidation based on option pricing and a model of the building blocks of the industries based on arbitrage pricing theory the results identify potential diversification gains from virtually all combinations involving banking and insurance which arise because common factors are combined in different ways and because insurance is already well diversified

do mergers improve the x efficiency and scale efficiency of u s banks evidence from the 1980s a central issue currently debated among bank analysts and economists is whether mergers enhance the efficiency of surviving banks this paper investigates the postmerger performance of acquiring banks that participated in a merger during the period 1980 90 the evidence suggests that acquirers failed to improve x efficiency after the merger acquiring banks however experienced moderate gains in scale efficiency relative to a control sample the second part of the paper uses regression analysis to identify factors influencing the performance of merging banks the regression results suggest that improvements in postmerger performance depend on the ability of the bank to strengthen asset quality the author finds no evidence to support the theory that in market mergers lead to significant improvements in efficiency copyright 1997 by ohio state university press

the propensity for local traders in futures markets to ride losses evidence of irrational or rational behavior abstract behavioral studies of individual traders decisions indicate that the disposition effect the propensity of traders to ride losses yet realize gains is motivated by psychological rather than rational economic considerations consistent with previous studies by heisler rev futures markets 13 1994 793 odean j finance 53 1998 1775 and locke and mann do professional traders exhibit loss realization aversion working paper george washington university 2000 we find evidence of a disposition effect for both on floor professional futures traders locals and a matched sample of non local traders after controlling for potential differences in trader characteristics comparisons reveal a stronger disposition effect among locals than non local traders given that locals must trade profitably to survive it is improbable that they are more irrational in their loss riding than non locals to the contrary evidence is provided that paper losses for local traders are more likely than for non locals to become either realized or paper gains by the time of the next transaction this result is consistent with the hypothesis that locals by their presence on the trading floor have privileged albeit short lived information on order flow that allows them to form relatively accurate probability predictions of the direction and strength of short term market price shifts

heterogeneity and peer effects in mutual fund proxy voting this paper studies voting in corporate director elections we construct a comprehensive data set of 2 058 788 mutual fund votes over a two year period we find systematic heterogeneity in voting some funds are consistently more management friendly than others we also establish the presence of peer effects a fund is more likely to oppose management when other funds are more likely to oppose it all else being equal we estimate a voting model whose supermodular structure allows us to compute social multipliers due to peer effects heterogeneity and peer effects are as important in shaping voting outcomes as firm and director characteristics

diversification in banking is noninterest income the answer this paper assesses potential diversification benefits in the u s banking industry from the steady shift toward activities that generate fee income trading revenue and other types of noninterest income in the aggregate declining volatility of net operating revenue reflects reduced volatility of net interest income not diversification benefits from noninterest income which is quite volatile and increasingly correlated with net interest income at the bank level greater reliance on noninterest income particularly trading revenue is associated with lower risk adjusted profits and higher risk this suggests few obvious diversification benefits from the ongoing shift toward noninterest income

systemic risk and diversification across european banks and insurers the mutual and cross company exposures to fat tail distributed risks determine the potential impact of a financial crisis on banks and insurers we examine the systemic interdependencies within and across the european banking and insurance sectors during times of stress by means of extreme value analysis while insurers exhibit a slightly higher interdependency in comparison with banks the interdependency across the two sectors turns out to be considerably lower this suggests that downside risk can be lowered through financial conglomeration

finding the most preferred alliance structure between banks and insurance companies in this paper we have studied alternative alliances between banks and insurance companies first we defined six different possible structure models for such alliances and nine criteria used to evaluate the models the models and the criteria were introduced together with bank and insurance experts the experts are representatives of the top management of finnish banks and insurance companies searching for the most preferred alliance model is a multiple criteria decision making mcdm problem to solve the problem we used an expert panel and the analytic hierarchy process ahp based on the evaluations of the panel the alternatives financial conglomerate and cross selling agreement no overlapping service channels are most preferred which one is chosen depends on how risk is emphasized

big bank mergers in europe an analysis of the cost implications this paper examines the cost implications from hypothetical cross border bank mergers in the eu in light of recent claims that substantial cost savings could be expected as the result of the eu s single market programme for financial services in fact our results suggest only limited opportunities for costs saving from big bank mergers and indicate that such mergers are more likely to result in an increase in total costs while there is a large variation in the simulated cost outcomes the greatest opportunities for cost savings would appear to be generated by mergers between german and italian banks in contrast mergers between french and german banks appear likely to result in substantial cost increases although the overall findings suggest limited benefits from cross border mergers between large banks this may be a reflection of the methodology merger simulations are carried out hypothetically ignoring any prior information about the pairings we assume no premiums or merger costs and no further synergies resulting from such things as branch closures or a restructuring of the product mix these assumptions may cause us to understate the potential reduction in total costs resulting from large bank mergers and therefore our estimates provide the most pessimistic of total cost reduction outcomes in conclusion the substantial variation of cost outcomes generated suggests that large banks seeking economies through cross border mergers should select potential partners with great care

friends acquaintances or strangers partner selection in r d alliances like governance structure and alliance scope partner selection may serve to safeguard firms intellectual assets in r d alliances we categorize potential alliance partners into friends acquainta

the simple economics of bank fragility banks are linked through the interbank deposit mar ket participations like syndicated loans and deposit interest rate risk the similarity in exposures carries the potential for systemic breakdowns this potential is either weak or strong depending on whether the linkages remain or vanish asymptotically it is shown that the linearity of the bank portfolios in the exposures in combi nation with a condition on the tails of the marginal distributions of these exposures determines whether the potential for systemic risk is weak or strong we show that if the exposures have marginal normal distributions the potential for systemic risk is weak while if e g the student distributions apply the potential is strong

the dominance of inefficiencies over scale and product mix economies in banking abstract this study measures and analyzes inefficiencies for all u s banks in 1984 inefficiencies are measured relative to a thick frontier cost function and are found to dominate measured scale and product mix economies most inefficiencies are operational in nature involving the overuse of physical inputs rather than financial involving overpayment of interest also technical inefficiencies proportionate overuse of all inputs dominate allocative inefficiencies improper mix of inputs these results suggest that competitive pressures in banking from deregulation will be focused primarily on banks that do not control costs rather than on those of a particular size or product mix

the costs of shareholder activism evidence from a sequential decision model abstract this paper provides benchmarks for monitoring costs and evaluates the net returns to shareholder activism i model activism as a sequential decision process consisting of demand negotiations board representation and proxy contest and estimate the costs of each activism stage a campaign ending in a proxy fight has average costs of 10 71 million i find that the estimated monitoring costs reduce activist returns by more than two thirds the mean net activist return is close to zero but the top quartile of activists earns higher returns on their activist holdings than on their non activist investments the large sample evidence presented in this paper aids in understanding the nature and evolution of activist engagements

aggregation of test statistics an evaluation of the evidence on contracting and size hypotheses abstract more powerful tests of a theory of choice of accounting methods and the effect of changes in these choices on equity values are provided the power increase comes from efficiently aggregating results across studies one conclusion is that at least six variables common to more than one study have explanatory power these variables are managerial compensation leverage size risk and constraints on interest coverage and dividends another conclusion is that the posterior probability that the theory taken as a whole has explanatory power is close to one this conclusion includes the effect of variables that only appear in one study

traditional and nontraditional banking an information theoretic approach abstract this paper uses a multiproduct approach to analyze the costs of a sample of large banks where bank outputs are measured to account for the different types of information produced by banks diseconomies of scope are found between traditional banking activities of originating and monitoring loans and nontraditional activities of loan selling and buying this suggests maintaining fire walls between commercial bank functions and investment bank functions after the glass steagall act is repealed will not sacrifice joint production economies it also suggests that arguments for repeal of the act based on the existence of such economies are ill founded

prospect theory and the disposition effect this paper shows that prospect theory is unlikely to explain the disposition effect prospect theory predicts that the propensity to sell a stock declines as its price moves away from the purchase price in either direction trading data on the other hand show that the propensity to sell jumps at zero return but it is approximately constant over a wide range of losses and increasing or constant over a wide range of gains further the pattern of realized returns does not seem to stem from optimal after tax portfolio rebalancing a belief in mean reverting returns or investors acting on target prices

a framework for analyzing efficiency risks costs and innovations in the payments system the market for payment instruments such as cash checks and electronic funds transfers is one of the largest most important and economically interesting markets in the economic system virtually every economic transaction requires the use of a payment instrument therefore on a value basis the demand for payment instruments equals the demand for all other goods services assets and other financial instruments traded in the economy combined in a monetary economy the buyers and sellers of any commodity must not only agree on the price and quantity to be exchanged but must also concur on the payment method that will be employed in the exchange that is every commodity buyer takes on the role of a payor and every commodity seller takes on the role of a payee and they jointly demand a payment instrument of equal value to the commodities exchanged the size of payments markets is illustrated in table 1 which shows transactions

marketmaker behavior in an auction market an analysis of scalpers in futures markets this paper focuses on the role of scalpers as marketmakers in the competitive auction of futures exchanges we use transactions data of a representative scalper to identify the source of scalper earnings we find that scalpers provide liquidity services to incoming market orders thereby facilitating commercial hedging scalper earnings are positively related to the bid asked spread and negatively related to the length of time a position is held futures trading is organized as an auction market with buyers and sellers confronting each other directly in a trading pit or ring on an exchange floor bids and offers are represented in the pit by open outcry trades are consummated throughout a trading session which usually last 4 to 6 hours whenever a bid is hit or an offer lifted by some other agent on the floor participants in futures markets include hedgers and speculators whose orders are called in and are represented by floor brokers in the pit in addition floor traders participate by bidding and offering for their own account some floor traders fall into the category of short term speculators day traders who prefer to trade for themselves rather than execute orders through a floor broker a somewhat more specialized group of floor traders are known as scalpers they are essentially marketmakers who quote bids and offers against which market orders can be executed they do not have an affirmative obligation to provide liquidity by quoting bids and offers but do so in the expectation of earning a return this paper examines the activities of scalpers on futures exchanges in order to identify the role of marketmakers in a freely competitive auction we focus on the nature of scalper decision making as well as on the contribution of scalpers to economic welfare one of our main concerns is with the source of a scalper s

ties that bind how business connections affect mutual fund activism we investigate whether business ties with portfolio firms influence mutual funds proxy voting using a comprehensive data set spanning 2003 to 2011 in contrast to prior literature we find that business ties significantly influence promanagement voting at the level of individual pairs of fund families and firms after controlling for institutional shareholder services iss recommendations and holdings the association is significant only for shareholder sponsored proposals and stronger for those that pass or fail by relatively narrow margins our findings are consistent with a demand driven model of biased voting in which company managers use existing business ties with funds to influence how they vote abstract from author

business ties and proxy voting by mutual funds abstract the magnitude of mutual funds business ties with their portfolio firms is documented and is linked to funds proxy votes at specific firms and to overall voting practices aggregate votes at the fund family level indicate a positive relation between business ties and the propensity to vote with management votes at specific firms however reveal that funds are no more likely to vote with management of client firms than of non clients because the votes took place when funds knew their votes would be publicly scrutinized fund families with a larger client base may have adopted voting policies that led to less frequent opposition to management at all firms

a portfolio view of banking with interest and noninterest activities this paper uses a portfolio framework to evaluate the impact of increased noninterest income on equity market measures of return and risk of u s bank holding companies from 1997 to 2004 the results indicate that the banks most reliant on activities that generate noninterest income do not earn higher average equity returns but are much more risky as measured by return volatility both total and idiosyncratic and market betas this suggests that the pervasive shift toward noninterest income has not improved the risk return outcomes of u s banks in recent years

bank capitalization and cost evidence of scale economies in risk management and signaling we amend the standard cost model to account for the role of financial capital in banking the cost function is conditioned on the level of capital but we model the demand for financial capital so that it can serve as a cushion against insolvency for potentially risk averse managers and as a signal of risk for less informed outsiders scale economies are then computed without assuming that the bank chooses a level of capitalization that minimizes cost we find evidence of substantial scale economies and that bank managers are risk averse and use the level of financial capital to signal the level of risk

the impact of underwriting and dealing on bank returns and risks abstract this study uses portfolio theory to investigate empirically the potential for diversification gains from expanded bank securities powers diversification potential is examined using microeconomic data on returns to existing bank securities and non securities activities over 1976 through 1985 both the mean and standard deviation of returns to securities activities are found to be greater than those of non securities activities some potential for diversification gains is found although this appears to be quite limited experiments designed to estimate the effect of using industry and time aggregated data are performed

behind the scenes the corporate governance preferences of institutional investors we survey institutional investors to better understand their role in the corporate governance of firms consistent with a number of theories we document widespread behind the scenes intervention as well as governance motivated exit these governance mechanisms are viewed as complementary devices with intervention typically occurring prior to a potential exit we further find that long term investors and investors that are less concerned about stock liquidity intervene more intensively finally we find that most investors use proxy advisors and believe that the information provided by such advisors improves their own voting decisions

technical change organizational form and the structure of bank production of those technological characteristics related to the nature of competition among firms in an industry or market scale economies and technical change are especially important economies of scale are said to exist when an equiproportional increase in all inputs results in a greater than proportional increase in output or equivalently when an increase in output at constant input prices leads to a less than proportional increase in total costs thus average costs decline as output expands depending upon the extent to which costs decline as output increases regulation of the firms in the industry may be necessary l the literature analyzing scale economies in commercial banking is voluminous the early studies on scale economies in banking include those by benston 1965 1972 greenbaum 1967 murphy 1972 and bell and murphy 1968 more recent studies include those by benston hanweck and humphrey 1982 and clark 1984 2 this literature has established that mild scale economies exist in bank

doctrinal foundations of monetary economics abstract in the realm of monetary economics both national and international expositions of doctrinal history have been hard to come by as laidler 1982 p 326 has observed historians of economic thought habitually neglect monetary economics when they write their textbooks recently however three publications have appeared that cast a historical perspective on the development of monetary thought jurg niehans s a history of economic theory classic contributions 1720 1980 johns hopkins university press baltimore md 1990 don patinkin s money interest and prices second edition abridged mit press cambridge ma 1989 and m june flanders s international monetary economics 1870 1960 between the classical and the new classical cambridge university press cambridge u k 1989

bidder returns in bancassurance mergers is there evidence of synergy abstract we provide evidence on the potential for bidder wealth gains in bancassurance mergers by examining a sample of such mergers in the united states and abroad these combinations are expected to produce positive wealth gains if there are synergies between these two types of financial firms we find positive bidder wealth effects that are significantly related to economies of scale as measured by the size of the target relative to the bidder potential economies of scope and the locations of the bidders and targets these results suggest that the bancassurance architectural structure for financial firms does offer some benefits and thus may become more prominent in future years

the decline of social entrenchment social network cohesion and board responsiveness to shareholder activism shareholder activism through corporate governance proposals is a prominent avenue for investors to voice their concerns in corporate governance matters however shareholder proposals have an uneven effect on corporate governance this paper contributes to research on shareholder activism by joining social movement approaches to activism with network theoretic approaches to corporate governance the paper examines how firms position within cohesive sections of the board interlock network termed social entrenchment predicts 1 the likelihood of being targeted by activist investors and 2 firms responsiveness to proposal demands first a firm s position in the board network serves as a salient network prism attracting activists attention this is especially true for activist investors who lack other backchannel avenues for engagement or seek to use public reputational penalties as part of their activism strategy second the board network traditionally served as an important collective infrastruc

bank income structure and risk an empirical analysis of european banks the purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between bank risk and product diversification in the changing structure of the european banking industry based on a broad set of european banks for the period 1996 2002 our study first shows that banks expanding into non interest income activities present higher risk and higher insolvency risk than banks which mainly supply loans however considering size effects and splitting non interest activities into both trading activities and commission and fee activities we show that the positive link with risk is mostly accurate for small banks and essentially driven by commission and fee activities a higher share of trading activities is never associated with higher risk and for small banks it implies in some cases lower asset and default risks

merger and optimal number of firms an integrated simulation approach in a market where imperfect competition occurs as a result of mergers this study proposes a framework consisting of both efficiency and risk analyses that allow the simulation of pro forma mergers and hence the determination of the optimal number of firms in the industry this is valuable policy information for regulators concerned with possible intervention in the case of competition and anti trust violations and also for business managers seeking acquisition targets the framework is applied to the banking industry in taiwan results reveal the potential for industrial restructuring in a sector where the optimal number of bank holding companies bhcs is between four and six subject to whether partial control is assumed

what precludes the development of noninterest activities in chinese commercial banks from the perspective of the price of interest activities noninterest activities of chinese commercial banks remain sluggish this article examines the price of interest activities and noninterest activities of chinese commercial banks over 2000 2010 based on ols and 2sls regression we find that the price of interest activities has a significant negative effect on the noninterest activities it appears that controlled interest rate is the main hindrance of the development of noninterest activities and the result is consistent with political view we also find that among state owned commercial banks and nonstate owned ones the relationships of interest activities and noninterest activities are differential the link between the price of interest activities and noninterest activities in state owned commercial banks is stronger than that in nonstate owned commercial banks that is the result of different government intervention degree

the efficiency effects of a single market for financial services in europe abstract this paper examines the potential efficiency effects of a single market for financial services in europe the topics covered include universal banking the merger and acquisition process itself cross border ownership and management of financial institutions and the effects of consolidation of financial institutions on the supply of relationship lending services to informationally opaque small businesses the research reviewed here suggests that the creation of a single market for the european financial services industry is not likely to bring about strong efficiency gains and that cross border efficiency barriers may prevent the single market from becoming a reality