occupational choice and the process of development this paper models economic development as a process of institutional transformation by focusing on the interplay between agents occupational decisions and the distribution of wealth because of capital market imperfections poor agents choose working for a wage over self employment and wealthy agents become entrepreneurs who monitor workers only with sufficient inequality however will there be employment contracts otherwise there is either subsistence or self employment thus in static equilibrium the occupational structure depends on distribution since the latter is itself endogenous we demonstrate the robustness of this result by extending the model dynamically and studying examples in which initial wealth distributions have long run effects in one case the economy develops either widespread cottage industry self employment or factory production employment contracts depending on the initial distribution in the other example it develops into prosperity or stagnation

the microfinance promise in the past decade microfinance programs have demonstrated that it is possible to lend to low income households while maintaining high repayment rates even without requiring collateral the programs promise a revolution in approaches to alleviating poverty and spreading financial services and millions of poor households are served globally a growing body of economic theory demonstrates how new contractual forms offer a key to microfinance success particularly the use of group lending contracts with joint liability for the most part however high repayment rates have not translated into profits and studies of impacts on poverty yield a mixed picture in describing emerging tensions the paper highlights the diversity of innovative mechanisms beyond group lending contracts the measurement of financial sustainability the estimation of economic and social impacts the costs and benefits of subsidization and the potential to reduce poverty through savings programs rather than just credit the promise of microfinance has pushed far ahead of the evidence and an agenda is put forward for addressing critical empirical gaps and sharpening the terms of policy discussion

the empirics of microfinance what do we know microfinance has received a lot of attention recently both from policy makers as well as in academic circles two of the main topics that have been hotly debated are explaining joint liability group lending and its implications for reducing information asymmetries and the trade off between the financial sustainability and outreach of microfinance programmes this feature contains three novel empirical contributions providing new insights with respect to why and how joint liability group lending works it also contains the first large scale systematic analysis of the trade off between financial performance and outreach of microfinance institutions

poverty comparisons over time and across countries in africa abstract we use demographic and health surveys dhs to compare poverty at two or more points in time within and between african countries our welfare measure is an index resulting from a factor analysis of various household characteristics durables and household heads education an advantage of this measure is that for intertemporal and intraregional comparisons we need not rely on suspect price deflators and currency conversion factors the wide availability and similarity of questionnaires of the dhs facilitate comparisons over both time and countries our results generally show declines in poverty during the previous decade largely due to improvements in rural areas

the economics of poverty traps and persistent poverty an asset based approach abstract longitudinal data on household living standards open the way to a deeper analysis of the nature and extent of poverty while a number of studies have exploited this type of data to distinguish transitory from more chronic forms of income or expenditure poverty this paper develops an asset based approach to poverty analysis that makes it possible to distinguish deep rooted persistent structural poverty from poverty that passes naturally with time due to systemic growth processes drawing on the economic theory of poverty traps and bifurcated accumulation strategies this paper briefly discusses some feasible estimation strategies for empirically identifying poverty traps and long term persistent structural poverty as well as relevant extensions of the popular foster greer thorbecke class of poverty measures the paper closes with reflections on how asset based poverty can be used to underwrite the design of persistent poverty reduction strategies

is grameen lending efficient repayment incentives and insurance in village economies many believe that a key innovation by the grameen bank is to encourage borrowers to help each other in hard times to analyse this we study a mechanism design problem where borrowers share information about each other but their limited side contracting ability prevents them from writing complete insurance contracts we derive a lending mechanism which efficiently induces mutual insurance it is necessary for borrowers to submit reports about each other to achieve efficiency such cross reporting increases the bargaining power of unsuccessful borrowers and is robust to collusion against the bank copyright 2004 wiley blackwell

credit union policies and performances in latin america this paper presents a conceptual framework for explaining credit unions cus loan delinquency and profitability in developing countries it also offers an empirical estimation for a unique sample of cus in latin america

enhancing capabilities through credit access creditworthiness as a signal of trustworthiness under asymmetric information article i nfo creditworthiness and trustworthiness are almost synonyms because under asymmetric information the act of conferring a loan has the indirect effect of signaling the trustworthiness of the borrower we test the creditworthiness trustworthiness nexus in an investment game experiment on a sample of participants non participants in a microfinance program in argentina and find that trustors give significantly more to and believe they will receive more from microfinance borrowers the first and second order beliefs of trustees are also consistent with this picture our findings then show that mf participants appear more trustworthy and this may help microfinance to work a related consequence is that if and only if borrower s trustworthiness is not public information the mere loan provision acts as a reputation enhancing signal increasing the borrower s attractiveness as a business partner in such case we have a channel through which a private financial intermediary contributes to the provision of a public good like information thereby

welfare dynamics in rural kenya and madagascar this paper presents comparative qualitative and quantitative evidence from rural kenya and madagascar in an attempt to untangle the causality behind persistent poverty we find striking differences in welfare dynamics depending on whether one uses total income including stochastic terms and inevitable measurement error or the predictable structural component of income based on a household s asset holdings our results suggest the existence of multiple dynamic asset and structural income equilibria consistent with the poverty traps hypothesis furthermore we find supporting evidence of locally increasing returns to assets and of risk management behaviour consistent with poor households defence of a critical asset threshold through asset smoothing

the effect of social capital on group loan repayment evidence from field experiments an important question to microfinance is the relevance of existing social capital in target communities to the performance of group lending this research presents evidence from field experiments in south africa and armenia in which subjects participate in trust and microfinance games we present evidence that personal trust between group members and social homogeneity are more important to group loan repayment than general societal trust or acquaintanceship between members we also find some evidence of reciprocity those who have been helped by other group members in the past are more likely to contribute in the future during the past decade exploring the role that social capital plays in economic behaviour has emerged as one of the most fascinating and fertile areas of economic research although precise definitions of social capital are notoriously difficult to pin down one of the early pioneers of the concept coleman 1988 defines social capital as social structure that facilitates certain actions of actors within the structure in his definition coleman specifically highlights the roles of mutual obligation expectations and trustworthiness social norms social sanctions and the transmission of information important studies in both developed and developing countries have analysed the impact of social capital in economic relationships putnam s celebrated work making democracy work civic traditions in modern italy 1993 and bowling alone america s declining social capital 1995 brought attention to the role that social capital plays in the development of the modern state udry s ground breaking 1994 work in nigeria illustrated how the social capital existing in traditional societies may allow for more efficient credit contracts than in developed economies with weaker social

bubbles in us regional house prices evidence from house price income ratios at the state level we investigate the presence of bubbles in the us house price income ratio at the state level by applying the recent time series based econometric test to data from january 1975 to december 2014 we

rural finance and agricultural technology adoption in ethiopia does the institutional design of lending organizations matter summary it has now become almost a stylized fact that sustained agricultural growth is central to rapid poverty reduction and economic development yet world poverty is largely concentrated in the agrarian societies which have the potential for agricultural productivity growth this is particularly true for sub saharan african countries where the gaps between potential and actual yields remain high minimizing this gap through the promotion of modern inputs such as fertilizer and modern seeds has been at the core of almost all development strategies in ethiopia among other initiatives the country has promoted microfinance institutions and member owned financial cooperatives to alleviate credit constraints of the smallholder farmers this paper analyzes the impacts of these institutions using household survey data and a propensity score matching technique we examine the effects that institutional financial services have on farmers adoption of agricultural technology in ethiopia the results suggest that access to institutional finance has a significant positive impact on both the adoption and extent of technology use however when impacts are disaggregated by type of financial institution and farm size heterogeneities are observed in particular financial cooperatives have a greater impact on technology adoption than microfinance institutions and the results appear to vary depending on farm size and types of inputs the paper concludes with implications for policies to promote adoption of modern agricultural inputs

income distribution and macroeconomics this paper analyzes the role of wealth distribution in macroeconomics through investment in human capital it is shown that in the presence of credit markets imperfections and indivisibilities in investment in human capital the initial distribution of wealth affects aggregate output and investment both in the short and in the long run as there are multiple steady states this paper therefore provides an additional explanation for the persistent differences in per capita output across countries furthermore the paper shows that cross country differences in macroeconomic adjustment to aggregate shocks can be attributed among other factors to differences in wealth and income distribution across countries

technology driven inequality leads to poverty and resource depletion the rapid rise in inequality is often seen to go in hand with resource overuse examples include water extraction in pakistan land degradation in bangladesh forest harvesting in sub saharan africa and industrial fishing in lake victoria while access to ecosystem services provided by common pool resources mitigates poverty exclusive access to technology by wealthy individuals may fuel excessive resource extraction and deplete the resource thus widening the wealth gap we use a stylised social ecological model to illustrate how a positive feedback between wealth and technology may fuel local inequality the resulting rise in local inequality can lead to resource degradation and critical transitions such as ecological resource collapse and unexpected increase in poverty further we find that societies may evolve towards a stable state of few wealthy and many poor individuals where the distribution of wealth depends on how access to technology is distributed overall our results illustrate how access to technology may be a mechanism that fuels resource degradation and consequently pushes most vulnerable members of society into a poverty trap

new evidence on the first financial bubble the mississippi bubble south sea bubble and the dutch windhandel of 1720 together represent the world s first global financial bubble we hand collect cross sectional price data and investor account data from 1720 to test theories about market bubbles our tests suggest that innovation was a key driver of bubble expectations we present evidence against the currently prevailing debt for equity conversion hypothesis and relate stock returns to innovations in atlantic trade and insurance we find evidence consistent with the innovation driven bubble dynamics documented by pastor and veronesi 2009 for new economy stocks our evidence seems inconsistent with clientele based theories that emphasize bubble riding and short sales restrictions

an analysis of offer functions of banks and credit unions in guatemala economists have sought to identify institutions which might fill the gap in household access to credit arising from rationing by formal lenders credit unions have been identified as institutions which might use informational and monitoring advantages to fill that gap using information on household perceptions of their access to credit this article analyses the impact of certain credit unions on the access to credit of households in guatemala regression results indicate that credit unions serve markets unserved by formal lenders and that information on household perceptions of their access to credit is important in making inferences about lender lending activities

moral hazard and peer monitoring in a laboratory microfinance experiment abstract this paper reports the results from a laboratory microfinance experiment of group lending in the presence of moral hazard and costly peer monitoring we compare peer monitoring treatments in which credit is provided to members of the group to individual lending treatments with lender monitoring we find that if the cost of peer monitoring is lower than the cost of lender monitoring peer monitoring results in higher loan frequencies higher monitoring and higher repayment rates compared to lender monitoring in the absence of monitoring cost differences however lending monitoring and repayment behavior is mostly similar across group and individual lending schemes within group lending contrary to theoretical predictions simultaneous and sequential lending rules provide equivalent empirical performance

child labor cause consequence and cure with remarks on international labor standards although the literature on child labor is enormous it lacks a common theoretical foundation in this paper analytical survey of this field is provided keeping in mind that this is an area where the primary reason for theorizing is ultimately to influence policy overall it is noted that the literature on child labor is an illustration of abundance and anarchy although empirical writings on child labor are numerous they are not usually founded on theory it is argued that there is much that can be done in curbing the issue of child labor several theories were studied in this paper including collaborative intervention such efforts include public action which alters the economic environment such that the parents of their own accord prefer to withdraw the child from labor force another strategy involves the government a legal intervention is enforcing a total ban on the subject although such interventions have good intentions some of them may not be feasible in general it is better to take economy wide measures against child labor and if there is to be a sector specific ban it should be based on the working conditions of that sector rather than the destination of the goods

nonmarket institutions for credit and risk sharing in low income countries the design credit and risk institutions in low income countries provides one of the most exciting testing grounds for theories of contracting with imperfect information and limited enforcement this paper reviews some of the recent literature with a special focus on nonmarket institutions that cope with risk and provide credit this literature attempts to bring together insights from economic theory especially information economics contract theory and mechanism design theory however it is also applied being motivated by the circumstance of the poor countries that their authors have visited and studied

the economics of poverty traps and persistent poverty empirical and policy implications the moral and economic imperatives to intervene in poverty traps motivate the identification of poverty traps and their structural causes so as to inform the design of appropriate policy responses however empirical identification remains challenging because of poverty traps complexity after reviewing mechanisms that can generate poverty traps we focus on one multiple financial market failures emphasising its heretofore underappreciated testable implications including specific behaviours that are rational only in the presence of a poverty trap we therefore recommend tests for these behaviours rather than more econometrically challenged efforts to directly test for poverty traps in estimated asset dynamics

microcredit and mechanism design individual microcredit loans are not necessarily simple fixed debt obligations but rather may have contingencies and procedures suggested by the theory of mechanism design further group or joint liability lending may not be the single miracle cure practitioners claim nor operate the way the logic of a single theory might suggest there are multiple theories these theories can be distinguished in data on repayment rates and the best fit theory may vary with the environment finally the debate about whether to lend to individuals or lend to groups may be misplaced under simple theories of selection the pareto superior regime which is predicted to emerge varies with exogenous environmental characteristics jel d5 d82 g2 o17

repayment performance in group lending evidence from jordan abstract using data from a survey of 160 urban borrowing groups of the microfund for women in jordan we investigate the effect of screening peer monitoring group pressure and social ties on borrowing groups repayment behavior as an indirect test of different theoretical models the dependent variable used captures the intensity of default measured by the total number of days of late repayment after each due date allowing us to use count data models with cluster standard errors as theory predicts our empirical analysis suggests that peer monitoring group pressure and social ties reduce delinquency the paper uncovers interesting evidence about the role of social ties and religion most notably in an area where religion contributes to attitudes and beliefs of individuals we find that religiosity improves repayment performance

the poor stay poor household asset poverty traps in rural semi arid india summary although identifying household level poverty dynamics would have important implications for poverty reduction policies empirical evidence is still scant this paper employs a novel semiparametric panel data estimator that combines the advantages of estimation methods in the existing literature and applies it to a uniquely long panel data set to examine poverty dynamics in three villages in rural semi arid india structural immobility is pervasive the currently poor are likely to remain poor suggesting a structural poverty trap while all households face static asset holdings higher castes larger landholders and more educated households are significantly less likely to be poor

social connections and group banking lending to the poor is expensive due to high screening monitoring and enforcement costs group lending advocates believe lenders overcome this by harnessing social connections using data from finca peru i exploit a quasi random group formation process to find evidence of peers successfully monitoring and enforcing joint liability loans individuals with stronger social connections to their fellow group members i e either living closer or being of a similar culture have higher repayment and higher savings furthermore i observe direct evidence that relationships deteriorate after default and that through successful monitoring individuals know who to punish and who not to punish after default

persistent parochialism trust and exclusion in ethnic networks decentralized groups such as close knit residential neighborhoods and ethnically linked businesses often achieve high levels of cooperation while engaging in exclusionary practices that we call parochialism we investigate the contribution of within group cultural affinity to the ability of parochial groups to cooperate in social dilemmas we analyze parochial networks in which the losses incurred by not trading with outsiders are offset by an enhanced ability to enforce informal contracts by fostering trust among insiders we show that there is a range of degrees of parochialism for which parochial networks can coexist with an anonymous market offering unrestricted trading opportunities

managers and efficiency in banking abstract this paper presents evidence on the impact of managers on cost efficiency in banking stochastic frontier analysis is applied to a unique finnish data set manager age and education have strong yet complicated effects on efficiency the impact of age on efficiency depends on education a university degree is useful mainly in the largest banks of the sample educational background seems to be less important for young managers than for mature ones managing director changes are systematically followed by efficiency changes retirement typically causes an efficiency improvement whereas other manager changes can either improve or weaken efficiency however in many cases mature managers outperform their young colleagues

using repayment data to test across models of joint liability lending theories rationalising joint liability lending are rich in implications for repayment rates we exploit this fact to test four diverse models we show that the models repayment implications do not always coincide for example higher correlation of output and borrowers ability to act cooperatively can raise or lower repayment depending on the model data from thai borrowing groups suggest that repayment is affected negatively by the joint liability rate ceteris paribus and social ties and positively by the strength of local sanctions and correlated returns further the relative fit of the adverse selection versus informal sanctions models varies by region

optimal partial group liability in microfinance lending abstract this paper develops a model of group borrowing that incorporates partial group liability where borrowers are penalized if their group members default but are not held responsible for the entirety of the failed loan the model illustrates a trade off of group liability lending while higher levels of group liability increase within group risk sharing if liability is too high borrowers strategically default the model predicts the existence of an optimal partial liability that maximizes transfers between group members while avoiding strategic default consistent with this prediction loan officers from a large microfinance institution in southern mexico who rarely allow one group member to repay while the other defaults achieve substantially lower default rates than loan officers for whom the practice is commonplace or for those for whom it has never occurred structural estimation using repayment data suggests that while a partial liability below full liability may reduce default rates the incidence of strategic default is rare

do risky microfinance borrowers really invest in risky projects experimental evidence from bolivia abstractthis paper reports the results of an experiment testing a fundamental assumption in stiglitz and weiss 1981 model of credit rationing that defaulting borrowers are associated with investment in risky projects through an artefactual field experiment with 200 bolivian microfinance borrowers we observe that subjects from real world delinquent borrowing groups do not prefer risky projects to safer ones significantly more than subjects from repaying groups instead our results support more recent behavioural theories of credit market failure implications are that defaulting microfinance borrowers may be those who take too little investment risk rather than those who take too much

group lending with sequential financing contingent renewal and social capital this paper focuses on the dynamic aspects of group lending in particular sequential financing and contingent renewal we examine the efficacy of these two schemes in harnessing social capital we find that for the appropriate parameter configurations there is homogenous group formation so that the lender can ascertain the identity of a group without lending to all its members thus screening out bad borrowers partially moreover under certain parameter configurations negative assortative matching occurs as a robust phenomenon

gender assets and agricultural development lessons from eight projects ownership of assets is important for poverty reduction and women s control of assets is associated with positive development outcomes at the household and individual levels this research was undertaken to provide guidance for agricultural development programs on how to incorporate gender and assets in the design implementation and evaluation of interventions this paper synthesizes the findings of eight mixed method evaluations of the impacts of agricultural development projects on individual and household assets in seven countries in africa and south asia the results show that assets both affect and are affected by projects indicating that it is both feasible and important to consider assets in the design implementation and evaluation of projects all projects were associated with increases in asset levels and other benefits at the household level however only four projects documented significant positive impacts on women s ownership or control of some types of assets relative to a control group and of those only one project provided evidence of a reduction in the gender asset gap the quantitative and qualitative findings suggest ways that greater attention to gender and assets by researchers and development implementers could improve outcomes for women in future projects

delegated monitors large and small germany s banking system 1800 1914 banks play a greater role in the german financial system than in those of the united states or britain germany s large universal banks are admired by those who advocate bank deregulation in the united states others admire the universal banks for their supposed role in corporate governance and industrial finance many discussions distort the german banking system by overstressing one of several types of banks and ignore the competition and cooperation between the famous universal banks and other banking groups tracing the historical development of the german banking system from the early nineteenth century places the large universal banks in context

inequality as a determinant of malnutrition and unemployment policy this paper explores the policy implications that are obtained once it is recognized that at low nutrition intakes a person s productivity is an increasing function of intake in the context of a fully general equilibrium model it is shown that if aggregate assets in an economy are neither large nor small certain patterns of lorenz improving asset redistributions or nutrition transfers increase aggregate output and reduce the volume of involuntary unemployment and the incidence of undernourishment copyright 1987 by royal economic society

asset restructuring strategies in bank acquisitions does distance between dealing partners matter abstract one of the most lively debated effects of banking acquisitions is the change in lending and asset allocation of the target bank in favour of transaction based products at the expense of small and informationally opaque borrowers these changes may be the result of two distinct restructuring strategies pursued by the acquirer with respect to the asset portfolio of the acquired bank a cleaning strategy cs in which the acquirer makes a clean sweep of all the negative net present value activities in the portfolio of the acquired bank and a portfolio strategy ps in which the acquiring bank permanently changes the portfolio allocation of the acquired bank in this paper we focus on italian bank acquisitions and test which asset restructuring strategy was predominantly pursued over the period 1997 2003 moreover we distinguish acquisitions according to their geographic diversifying character and to the physical and cultural distances that separate acquiring from acquired banks when we look at the mean value we do not find clear evidence of a primacy either of css or pss when we separate in market from out of market bank acquisitions however results show that the css prevail only in the former type of deals while in the latter the portfolio of acquired banks is subject to pss finally we find that differences in asset restructuring strategies can be explained by differences in corporate culture and the workplace environment of the dealing partners

do 18th century bubbles survive the scrutiny of 21st century time series econometrics abstract applying the methods of phillips et al 2015 psy while considering the possibility of non stationary volatility harvey et al 2016 evidence of exuberance in share prices is confirmed for the south sea company and established for a number of other 18th century financial organisations for the first time the timings of these bubble episodes show signs of possible contagion

thy neighbor s keeper the design of a credit cooperative with theory and a test economists now appreciate that resource allocation in less economically developed economies is profoundly influenced by non firm economic institutions however our theories of non firm institutions often suggest different answers to many questions including those of policy this paper illustrates a method for discriminating between alternative theories using data from german credit cooperatives from the nineteenth and early twentieth century germany we build a model of credit cooperatives designed to provide monitoring incentives and test this using nineteenth century data authors

microfinance and investment a comparison with bank and informal lending summary comparing the impact of different types of credit on households investment in bangladesh we find that loans from microfinance institutions are likely to be channeled toward non agricultural activities while both informal and bank lending are associated to a higher expenditure in agricultural inputs estimated effects are net of the differences in the amount borrowed interest rates and collateral results suggest that features which are specific to microfinance such as tight repayment schedules and land based eligibility rules may reduce the suitability of this source of funds for the farming sector

do poverty traps exist assessing the evidence why did per capita incomes not increase in burundi haiti and nicaragua countries one possible explanation is a poverty trap which can be understood as a set of self reinforcing mechanisms whereby countries start poor and remain poor poverty begets poverty so that current poverty is itself a direct cause of poverty in the future it implies that much poverty is needless in the sense that a different equilibrium is possible and also that one time policy efforts that break the poverty trap may have lasting effects the concept of a poverty trap at the level of national economies is related to and sometimes based on microeconomic foundations that argue for the existence of poverty traps at the household level the authors discuss behavioral poverty traps as a recent area of research for which the evidence is just starting to accumulate and geographic poverty traps as the most likely form of a trap the policy prescriptions that result are then quite different from the calls for a big push in aid or expansion of microfinance to allow people to overcome credit constraints

outreach sustainability and leverage in monitored and peer monitored lending abstract i study the contract design problem facing microfinance lending organizations mfos that want to maximize the impact and outreach of their lending activities to a target population of poor borrowers while remaining financially sustainable tradeoffs between outreach sustainability and financial leverage are shaped by the endogenous monitoring and delegation costs that arise within a chain of agency relationships subject to moral hazard between borrowers loan staff mfo equity owners and outside investors all else equal sustainable mfos that target poorer borrowers must charge higher interest rates have higher staff costs per dollar loaned and are less leveraged analysis of data for 72 mfos tends to support the findings

policies and impact an analysis of village level microfinance institutions this paper uses variation in policies and institutional characteristics to evaluate the impacts of village level microfinance institutions in rural thailand to identify impacts we use policies related to the successful unsuccessful provision of services as exogenous variation in effective financial intermediation we find that institutions particularly those with good policies can promote asset growth consumption smoothing and occupational mobility and can decrease moneylender reliance specifically cash lending institutions production credit groups and especially women s groups are successful in providing intermediation and its benefits to members while buffalo banks and rice banks are not the policies identified as important to intermediation and benefits the provision of savings services especially pledged savings accounts emergency services and training and advice surprisingly much publicized policies such as joint liability default consequences or repayment frequency had no measured impacts jel 012 016

assets and poverty traps in rural bangladesh using longitudinal survey from rural bangladesh this article examines the determinants of land and asset accumulation over time and explores why some households may be trapped in asset poverty non parametric and parametric methods are used to discern the shape of the asset accumulation path and whether unique or multiple equilibria exist we find evidence for concavity of the dynamic asset frontier but no evidence for multiple equilibria it is suggested that the existence of well functioning factor markets in rural bangladesh and elsewhere in south asia explain the contrasts between our results and those for several african countries

contract structure risk sharing and investment choice few microfinance funded businesses grow beyond subsistence entrepreneurship this paper considers one possible explanation that the structure of existing microfinance contracts may discourage risky but high expected return investments to explore this possibility i develop a theory that unifies models of investment choice informal risk sharing and formal financial contracts i then test the predictions of this theory using a series of experiments with clients of a large microfinance institution in india the experiments confirm the theoretical predictions that joint liability creates two potential inefficiencies first borrowers free ride on their partners making risky investments without compensating partners for this risk second the addition of peer monitoring overcompensates leading to sharp reductions in risk taking and profitability equity like financing in which partners share both the benefits and risks of more profitable projects overcomes both of these inefficiencies and merits further testing in the field

the impact of positive agricultural income shocks on rural chinese households in the post collectivization period rural chinese households were required to sell part of their grain output to the state at a below market price however increases in this quota price beginning in 1993 generated substantial positive income shocks these income shocks also varied cross sectionally in accordance with crop composition given that quotas were systematically larger for rice producing households generating a quasi random source of variation in the size of the shock driven by climatic variation in suitability for rice cultivation households induced to experience relatively larger income shocks show evidence of decreased agricultural investment increased investment in non agricultural businesses and increased migration as households gain increased income consistent with the hypothesis that credit constraints may have constrained some households from entering non agricultural production ex ante in addition there is evidence that these households were concentrated among households who had not previously diversified out of agriculture

exploring poverty traps and social exclusion in south africa using qualitative and quantitative data abstract recent theoretical work hypothesises that a polarised society like south africa will suffer a legacy of ineffective social capital and blocked pathways of upward mobility that leaves large numbers of people trapped in poverty to explore these ideas this paper employs a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods novel econometric analysis of asset dynamics over the 1993 98 period identifies a dynamic asset poverty threshold that signals that large numbers of south africans are indeed trapped without a pathway out of poverty qualitative analysis of this period and the period 1998 2001 more deeply examines patterns of mobility and confirms the continuation of this pattern of limited upward mobility and a low level poverty trap in addition the qualitative data permit a closer look at the specific role played by social relationships while finding ample evidence of active social capital and networks these are more helpful for non poor households for the poor social capital at best helps sta

assessing environmental dependence using asset and income measures evidence from nepal understanding rural environmental dependence in a rural population is an important factor in the framing of environmental policy with the dual aim of tackling poverty and conserving nature firstly this study compares the assessment of environmental dependence between poverty groupings based on income and asset measures using a composite asset index we were able to distinguish the asset poor from the asset non poor we then combined income data with the asset index enabling us to disentangle the stochastic and structural nature of poverty the distribution of poor and non poor households based on income measures was significantly different from that based on asset measures the income poor are substantially more dependent on environmental resources than the income non poor about 15 difference while strikingly minimal difference was observed in environmental dependence between the asset poor and non poor less than 2 difference the level of environmental dependence between the poor and non poor households differs with the choice of welfare measure and combining two of these measures to identify wealth groups provides policy makers with better insight on the variations in environmental dependence

group lending sequential financing lender monitoring and joint liability abstract we develop a simple model of group lending based on peer monitoring and moral hazard we find that in the absence of sequential financing or lender monitoring group lending schemes may involve under monitoring with the borrowers investing in undesirable projects moreover under certain parameter configurations group lending schemes involving either sequential financing or a combination of lender monitoring and joint liability are feasible in fact group lending schemes with sequential financing may succeed even in the absence of joint liability though the repayment rate will be lower in the absence of joint liability however group lending with lender monitoring is unlikely to be feasible

is there a child labor trap intergenerational persistence of child labor in brazil this article examines the intergenerational persistence of child labor empirically by looking at household survey data from brazil previous empirical work on child labor has focused primarily on isolating the determinants of child labor using survey data we take a different approach by asking does the child labor status of parents affect the child labor incidence of their children we look at this question in two ways our working assumption is that financial need creates this generational link but we also ask if there exists an intergenerational link over and above that which is transmitted through the production of income perhaps through norms we find strong evidence that this link exists and that it appears to persist even when income is held constant moreover we find that children who did not work as child laborers command higher salaries later in life which suggests that the potential human capital gains through apprenticeship as children are outweighed by the human capital gains children receive through schooling excerpt

bank firm relationships and allocative efficiency in northeastern and central italy and in the south abstract we make two contributions on the extent and impact of relationship banking based on close and long lasting bank firm customer relationships in the three sub systems in which italy may be subdivided first we show that relationship banking is more extensive in both sub systems where small businesses prevail the fast growing northeast and center nec and the south the marginal area of dependent development second we demonstrate that relationship banking improves the allocation of credit in the nec but worsens it in the south this evidence suggests that relationship banking may be beneficial or detrimental depending on the socio economic structure

one kind of freedom poverty dynamics in post apartheid south africa abstract a 1993 south african living standards survey documented the legacy of apartheid in the form high levels of inequality and human insecurity drawing on a 1998 re survey of households in the 1993 study this paper explores whether this legacy has been superseded or whether apartheid s end has been only one kind of freedom that has left households in a poverty trap from which they cannot escape after proposing a theoretically grounded dynamic poverty typology that distinguishes stochastic from structural poverty transitions the paper goes on to estimate that significant numbers of the south african poor are potentially trapped in a structural poverty trap and lack the means to escape poverty over time

asset based poverty transition and persistence in rural china this article tests empirically for transition and persistence of poverty in rural china based on the theory of asset based poverty traps it proposes an analytical framework mitigating the problem of endogenous switching between accumulation regimes and disentangling the true state dependence of poverty specifically a dynamic asset threshold separating households into downward and upward mobility regimes is identified after taking households unobserved characteristics and observed regime differentiated accumulation strategies into account the static analysis identifies causality running from settling into a downward mobility regime to the probability of poverty measured by consumption furthermore allowing for endogenous initial poverty status the dynamic analysis finds strong true state dependence in poverty households with the same characteristics are nearly twice as likely to be poor as if they had not previously switched to the accumulation regime assets below the dynamic threshold serve as a conduit through which poverty propagates itself factors that help to break this vicious circle are identified

how strong is the evidence for the existence of poverty traps a multicountry assessment introducing this special collection on asset dynamics and poverty traps this article assesses evidence on these issues across eight panel data sets in six countries generally not previously considered in this perspective it examines the importance of assets in relation to chronic poverty and uses parametric and non parametric methods to test for dynamic asset based poverty traps the article finds that chronically poor households have lower levels of assets than others though does not find evidence of the non convexities which would imply a multiple dynamic poverty trap from this base the article introduces the remainder of the articles in this collection which set out many promising approaches to further develop and improve methods and approaches for looking at poverty traps in future

stochastic wealth dynamics and risk management among a poor population we use herd history data collected among pastoralists in southern ethiopia to study stochastic wealth dynamics among a poor population although covariate rainfall shocks plainly matter household specific factors including own herd size account for most observed variability in wealth dynamics we find no support for the tragedy of the commons hypothesis past studies may have conflated costly self insurance with stocking rate externalities biophysical shocks move households between multiple dynamic wealth equilibria the lowest suggesting a poverty trap according to nonconvex path dynamics these findings have broad implications for development and relief strategies among a poor population vulnerable to climatic shocks a vast economic literature on risk management rests explicitly or implicitly on the classic friedmanite permanent income hypothesis studies of portfolio management consumption smoothing social insurance and the like all depend on the canonical assumption that stochastic income realisations are drawn from a stationary income distribution leading to consumption smoothing off a stable asset base the possibility of asset accumulation connects this literature to the immense literature on the theory and empirics of economic growth

liability structure in small scale finance evidence from a natural experiment microfinance the provision of small individual and business loans has witnessed dramatic growth reaching over 150 million borrowers worldwide much of its success has been attributed to overcoming the challenges of information asymmetries in uncollateralized lending yet very little is known about the optimal contract structure of such loans there is substantial variation across lenders even within a particular setting this paper exploits a plausibly exogenous change in the liability structure offered by a microfinance program in india which shifted from individual to group liability lending the analysis finds compelling evidence that contract structure matters for the same borrower required monthly loan installments are 6 percent less likely to be missed under the group liability setting relative to individual liability in addition compulsory savings deposits are 19 percent less likely to be missed under group liability contracts

welfare dynamics in pakistan and ethiopia does the estimation method matter identifying household level welfare dynamics and associated dynamic poverty trap thresholds can have important implications for the targeting of poverty reduction policies the small existing empirical microeconomic literature has found evidence both for and against poverty traps using household panel data from rural pakistan and ethiopia this article examines whether these different results are likely driven by differences in estimation methods or whether they reflect actual differences across settings it applies the estimation methods from the existing literature to the same two datasets and also proposes a novel semiparametric panel data estimator that combines the advantages of the previous fully parametric and nonparametric approaches the results suggest that absent any dynamic poverty trap thresholds the effect of using different estimation methods is secondary having a small influence on the estimated long term level of household well being but not the identification of multiple dynamic welfar

the life cycle of a microfinance institution the irish loan funds abstract ireland s loan funds were a long lived self sustaining large scale microfinance organization that made millions of loans without collateral to the poor during the first 100 years of their life cycle a period of growth ending in the 1840s they adapted constantly and obtained improvements to their legal structure because they were complementary to the banking system and seen as effective in relieving poverty in their 2nd century they became ossified in part because of competition with commercial banks the loan funds provide an example of sustainable microfinance under harsh economic conditions and illustrate how organizations change incrementally and when successful alter their institutional framework

screening by the company you keep joint liability lending and the peer selection effect we look at an economic environment where borrowers have some information about the nature of each other s projects that lenders do not we show that joint liability lending contracts similar to those used by credit cooperatives and group lending schemes will induce endogenous peer selection in the formation of groups in a way that the instrument of joint liability can be used as a screening device to exploit this local information this can improve welfare and repayment rates if standard screening instruments such as collateral are unavailable

assortative matching adverse selection and group lending abstract this note reconsiders a theoretical result asserted to explain the success of group lending programs in ldcs it has been claimed that if groups are allowed to form themselves risky and safe borrowers will sort themselves into relatively homogenous groups this positive assortative matching can be exploited by lenders to solve an adverse selection problem that would otherwise undermine the effectiveness of such lending programs i show that the positive assortative matching result does not necessarily hold if earlier models are extended to incorporate dynamic incentives

reciprocal supervision collusion and organizational design we study the design of supervisory functions in an organization with one principal and two agents each agent can perform supervision activities regarding the other agent we characterize the way the principal must structure incentive payments to avoid any collusive activity between agents in particular it is shown that better mutual information between agents may hurt the principal the other main result is the possibility that it may be better to give up one supervisory function or to have a third party be the supervisor if possible finally we show that such a dual supervisory structure raises the possibility that letting collusion happen may be the best policy

group lending and the role of the group leader this paper investigates strategic monitoring behavior within group lending we show that monitoring efforts of group members differ in equilibrium due to the asymmetry between members in terms of future profits in particular we show that the entrepreneur with the highest future profits also puts in the highest monitoring effort moreover monitoring efforts differ between group members due to free riding one member reduces her level of monitoring if the other increases her monitoring effort this effect is also at play when we introduce a group leader into the model the individual who becomes the group leader supplies more monitoring effort than in the benchmark case we empirically test the model using data from a survey of microfinance in eritrea and show that the group leader attaches more weight to future periods than nonleaders in the group which may explain why a large part of total monitoring is done by the leader

the federal deposit insurance fund that didn t put a bite on u s tax payers abstract unlike the federal savings and loan insurance corporation and the bank insurance fund the national credit union share insurance fund ncusif survived the 1980s without falling into a state of accounting insolvency this paper analyzes how differences in incentive structure constrain the attractiveness of interest rate speculation and other risk taking opportunities to managers and regulators of credit unions despite these better incentives robust present value calculations establish that ncusif fell into economic insolvency during the mid 1980s besides calculating the extent of this insolvency the paper also seeks to explain why after ncusif became insolvent it could rebuild its reserves without an explicit or implicit taxpayer bailout our explanation turns on cross industry coinsurance responsibilities and the shallowness of the fund s observed insolvency relative to industry net worth we identify forces in the decisionmaking environment tending to limit the depth and duration of unresolved insolvencies at individual credit unions managerial opportunities to benefit personally from taking risks that would flow through to ncusif are constrained by difficulties in converting a credit union to stockholder form and by the intensity of proactive monitoring of troubled credit unions by sister institutions and other private coinsurers we conjecture that expanded use of coinsurance and private monitoring could reduce taxpayer loss exposure elsewhere in government deposit insurance systems