can falling supply explain the rising return to college for younger men a cohort based analysis although the college high school wage gap for younger u s men has doubled over the past 30 years the gap for older men has remained nearly constant in the united kingdom and canada the college high school wage gap also increased for younger relative to older men using a model with imperfect substitution between similarly educated workers in different age groups we argue that these shifts reflect changes in the relative supply of highly educated workers across age groups the driving force behind these changes is the slowdown in the rate of growth of educational attainment that began with cohorts born in the early 1950s in all three countries

public trust the law and financial investment abstract how does trust evolve in markets what is the optimal level of regulation and how does this affect trust formation and economic growth in a theoretical model we analyze these questions given the value of social capital and the potential for growth in the market when social capital is valuable regulation and trustfulness are substitutes in this case regulation may cause lower aggregate investment and decreased economic growth when the social capital is less valuable regulation and trustfulness may be complements in the paper we analyze the optimal level of regulation and highlight the novel predictions of the model

the long term costs of job displacement for young adult workers using nlsy data the authors estimate the long term costs of job displacement for young adults earnings and wage losses were large for the first three years following displacement compared to earnings losses found by other studies for more mature workers however earnings losses for these young adults were short lived with differences between observed and expected earnings narrowing considerably five years after job loss at that point the shortfall in annual earnings relative to what would have been expected absent job loss was 9 for men and 12 5 for women and the shortfall in hourly wages was 21 2 for men young workers also apparently differ from more established workers in the composition of total earnings losses for older workers total losses largely represent actual immediate earnings losses whereas for young workers the loss of opportunities for rapid earnings growth is more important

the effects of graduating from college during a recession on living standards graduating from college during a recession has persistent negative effects on labor market outcomes this study assesses the welfare impact of a recession at entry by analyzing family formation behaviors and asset holdings scrutiny of the national longitudinal survey of youth 1979 nlsy79 reveals that despite a decline in hourly wages business cycle conditions at entry to the labor market do not affect family formation car or home ownership or net asset holdings in the long run evidence suggests that individuals who graduate in bad times tend to move to states with lower living costs to secure living standards jel e21

media bias and influence evidence from newspaper endorsements this paper investigates the relationship between media bias and the inuence of the media on voting in the context of newspaper endorsements werst develop a simple econometric model in which voters choose candidates under uncertainty and rely on endorsements from better informed sources newspapers are potentially biased in favor of one of the candidates and voters thus rationally ac count for the credibility of any endorsements our primary empiricalnding is that endorsements are inuential in the sense that voters are more likely to support the recommended candidate after publication of the endorsement the degree of this inuence however depends upon the credibility of the endorsement in this way endorsements for the democratic candidate from left leaning news papers are less inuential than are endorsements from neutral or right leaning or newspapers and likewise for endorsements for the republican thesendings suggest that voters do rely on the media for information during campaigns but that the extent of this reliance depends upon the degree and direction of any bias

what have we learned about policy and growth from cross country regressions economists have been seeking to comprehend why some countries are rich and others poor for well over 200 years a better understanding of the national policies associated with long run growth would both contribute to our ability to explain cross country differences in per capita incomes and provide a basis for making policy recommendations that could lead to improvements in human welfare recently economists have used cross country regressions to search for empirical linkages between longrun growth and indicators of national policies e g roger kormendi and philip meguire 1985 robert j barro 1991 the large cross country growth literature has identified various fiscal monetary trade exchange rate and financial policy indicators that are significantly correlated with longrun growth yet levine and david renelt 1992 show that many of these findings are fragile to small alterations in the conditioning information set that is small changes in the right hand side variables produce different conclusions regarding the relationship between individual policies and growth in this paper we take stock of what the profession has learned from cross country regression studies of policy and long run growth i limitations

cyclical quality adjustment in the labor market 1 introductionthe u s unemployment rate fell to very low levels during the 1990s even more impressively the unemployment rate for minorities and less educated individuals fell disproportionately convergence of relative unemployment rates in expansions and divergence in recessions has been a feature of the u s economy over the last 30 years there are many possible reasons for this feature for example if the costs of hiring and firing less skilled labor are low one would expect these individuals to have very procyclical employment in this paper i explore an alternative model when there is an excess supply of labor high skilled people take jobs that would normally be occupied by less skilled people in expansions the process reverses with less skilled workers getting access to jobs that they would normally not attain i refer to this process as cyclical quality adjustment reder 1955 p 834 was one of the first to discuss how hiring standards adjust to business cycle conditions quality variations in labor markets arise through upgrading and downgrading of members of the labor force relative to the jobs they are to fill when applicants become scarce employers tend to lower the minimum standards upon which they insist as a condition for hiring a worker to fill a particular job and vice versa when applicants become plentiful since then many papers have developed this idea theoretically and many economic commentators appear to share this view of the labor market for example the economic report of the president states that a strong labor market is particularly important to less advantaged groups in the labor market such as workers with less education younger workers racial and ethnic minorities and immigrants when employers find it hard to fill vacancies they are more willing to hire and train workers whom they might pass over when they have fewer openings and an abundance of applicants council of economic advisors 1999 p 103 likewise the expansion during the 1990s spawned many newspaper articles about the improvement in the types of jobs available to less skilled applicants however there is little systematic empirical work about changes in job assignment in the united states over the business cycle the empirical work in this paper seeks to redress this situation cyclical assignment changes are important for many reasons as mentioned earlier job upgrading is a potential explanation for the greater cyclical variation of employment experienced by less skilled workers it is well known that the unemployment rates of less skilled individuals and minorities are more countercyclical relative to more skilled individuals clark and summers 1981 kydland 1984 keane and prasad 1993 hoynes 1999 the standard explanation for this effect is that low ability workers are more likely to be laid off in downturns because training and hiring costs are lower for these workers no commensurate attention has been paid to the issue of how the decision of who to hire changes over the business cycle however assignment models present a natural explanation for the greater procyclicality of employment of the less skilled both the adjustment cost hypothesis and the upgrading hypothesis imply that less skilled workers will have more procyclical employment empirically they are distinguishable because the upgrading explanation implies that jobs obtained by comparable workers should vary systematically over the cycle the adjustment cost hypothesis relates to the composition of those whose jobs are terminated second these mechanisms suggest a reason why wages are particularly procyclical for job changers recent studies using panel data have indicated that the wages of job starters are much more procyclical than the wages of workers who do not change jobs researchers have suggested various explanations for this result beaudry and dinardo 1991 and macleod and malcomson 1993 present contracting models in which the wages of job starters depend on the state of the labor market when they join the firm

upper secondary school completion and the business cycle previous evidence suggests that enrollment in post compulsory education increases decreases in cyclical downturns upturns however little evidence exists on whether enrollment is successfully transformed into completed education this paper adds to the literature by analyzing the relationship between completion of upper secondary education and regional unemployment using norwegian regional panel data on students graduating from compulsory school between 1981 and 2004 we find robust evidence that completion rates are countercyclical our results suggest that poor labor market conditions when starting upper secondary education have a lasting effect and motivate students to stay in school and graduate

matching workers and jobs cyclical fluctuations in match quality using national longitudinal survey of youth data on tenure and wages this article analyzes the extent to which the level of job mismatching varies over the business cycle and how it is dealt with by the labor market i find significant cyclical variation in job match quality and an internalization of the variation by the labor market through wages mismatching occurs more during recessions but is primarily captured in starting wages the evidence suggests the cyclical phenomenon is one of general mismatching rather than an increased number of stopgap jobs during recessions

vertical integration and firm boundaries the evidence since ronald h coase s 1937 seminal paper a rich set of theories has been developed that deal with firm boundaries in vertical or input output structures in the last twenty five years empirical evidence that can shed light on those theories also has been accumulating we review the findings of empirical studies that have addressed two main interrelated questions first what types of transactions are best brought within the firm and second what are the consequences of vertical integration decisions for economic outcomes such as prices quantities investment and profits throughout we highlight areas of potential cross fertilization and promising areas for future work

the perfect storm graduating during a recession in a segmented labor market using spanish social security data merged with labor force survey data this article analyzes the effects of entry labor market conditions on workers careers two to three decades after graduating

reviving growth in the arab world abstract why has growth in the arab world been so disappointing stagnating since 1985 the little growth that does exist is volatile and unstable and the region has lagged behind both the gains of other developing countries and the region s own pre 1985 performance this article attempts to encourage the revitalization of growth in the arab world by addressing the following two questions why has growth been so low specifically in comparison to the high performers of east asia and why has it been so erratic and unstable i estimate two growth models of the determinants of long term growth and the persistence of growth using global panel data drawn from more than 70 countries i conclude by describing two strategies and one development constraint important in explaining the growth process specific to the arab world

does the worldwide shift of fdi from manufacturing to services accelerate economic growth a gmm estimation study abstract we examine the effect of manufacturing and service fdi foreign direct investment on their own sector growth the spillover to the other sectors and the overall economy in host countries we identify significant sectoral and inter industry spillover effects with various data classifications and types of fdi flows evidence reveals that growth effect of manufacturing fdi operates by stimulating activity in its own manufacturing sector and is prevalent in latin america caribbean in europe central asia middle to low income countries and economies with large industry share a surge of service fdi is likely to spur growth in service industries but hurt activity in manufacturing industries financial service fdi enhances growth in south east asia and the pacific high income countries and service based economies by stimulating activity in both manufacturing and service sectors however nonfinancial service fdi drains resources and hurts manufacturing industry in the same group of countries we conclude that a shift from manufacturing to service fdi is likely to lead to deindustrialization in certain regions and types of economies if this shift is spearheaded by nonfinancial fdi

long term effects of a recession at labor market entry in japan and the united states abstract we examine effects of entering the labor market during a recession on subsequent employment and earnings for japanese and american men using comparable household labor force surveys we find persistent negative effects of the unemployment rate at graduation for less educated japanese men in contrast to temporary effects for less educated american men the school based hiring system and the dismissal regulation prolong the initial loss of employment opportunities for less educated japanese men the effect on earnings for more educated groups is also stronger in japan although the difference between the two countries is smaller than for less educated groups

energy gdp relationship revisited an example from gcc countries using panel causality abstract this work investigates the causality relationship between gross domestic product gdp and energy consumption in the six countries of the gulf cooperation council gcc recently developed panel cointegration and causality techniques are used to uncover the direction of energy gdp causality in the gcc empirical results indicate a unidirectional causality running from gdp to energy consumption evidence shows no support for the hypothesis that energy consumption is the source of gdp growth in the gcc countries such results suggest that energy conservation policies may be adopted without much concern about their adverse effects on the growth of gcc economies

the impact of macroeconomic conditions in childhood on adult labor market outcomes this study examines the influence of business cycles in childhood on economic performance later in life i relate unemployment rates between the year before one s birth and the year of one s 15th birthday to schooling employment and income as an adult the analysis exploits variation in macroeconomic conditions across states over time i address a number of identification challenges related to cohort effects linear trends current events and economic persistence the caregiving behaviors and background characteristics of parents are also studied the average unemployment rate in childhood normally has a negative effect on human capital in adulthood jel j11 j24 j31

the firm as a dedicated hierarchy a theory of the origins and growth of firms in the formative stages of their businesses entrepreneurs have to provide incentives for employees to protect rather than steal the source of organizational rents we study how the entrepreneur s response to this problem determines the organization s internal structure growth and its eventual size large steep hierarchies will predominate in physical capital intensive industries and will have seniority based promotion policies by contrast e at hierarchies will prevail in human capital intensive industries and will have up or out promotion systems furthermore e at hierarchies will have more distinctive technologies or cultures than steep hierarchies the model points to some essential differences between organized hierarchies and markets at the root of most enterprises generating economic surplus is an entrepreneur with a unique critical resource such as an idea good customer relationships a new tool or superior management technique a fundamental problem of entrepreneurship is how to enlist the cooperation of the many agents necessary for production without ceding to them too much of the surplus generated by the enterprise the risk of being expropriated however is always inherent in production in particular the entrepreneur has to give her employees whom we call managers close proximity or access to the critical resource for them to learn to produce effectively for example a manager has to understand the idea be in contact with the key customers and suppliers or even learn the entrepreneur s unique managerial techniques in order to work effectively but access also gives the manager the opportunity to expropriate this critical resource and compete against the entrepreneur managers may steal the idea walk away with clients or mimic the entrepreneur s management style and start up a rival concern the greater the access a manager has the more he can appropriate and the more effectively he can compete this paper explores the role of organizational design in

fiscal policy expenditure composition and growth in low income countries abstract this paper assesses the effects of fiscal consolidation and expenditure composition on economic growth in a sample of 39 low income countries during the 1990s the paper finds that strong budgetary positions are generally associated with higher economic growth in both the short and long terms the composition of public outlays also matters countries where spending is concentrated on wages tend to have lower growth while those that allocate higher shares to capital and nonwage goods and services enjoy faster output expansion finally initial fiscal conditions also have a bearing on the nexus between fiscal deficits and growth

the impact of an early career recession on schooling and lifetime welfare this paper evaluates the lifetime welfare and labor market consequences of experiencing a recession during youth using a directed search equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents and aggregate shocks in particular the model allows for endogenous schooling decisions over the business cycles the counterfactual analysis shows that experiencing the 1981 1982 recession in youth causes a 1 6 to 2 3 loss in lifetime welfare endogenizing the schooling decision avoids overestimation of welfare loss because of the selection effect and the human capital effect i also decompose lifetime wage changes into different channels changes from schooling work experience and job mobility this article is protected by copyright all rights reserved

the allocation of talent over the business cycle and its long term effect on sectoral productivity it is well documented that graduates enter different occupations in recessions than in booms in our paper we examine the impact of the resulting change in the allocation of talent for long term productivity and output in a sector in a setting where output can be quantitatively and qualitatively measured we find evidence that talent flows to stable sectors in recessions and to cyclical sectors in booms economists starting or graduating from their phd in a recession are significantly more productive in academia over the long term than economists starting or graduating in a boom

labor market entry and earnings dynamics bayesian inference using mixtures of experts markov chain clustering summary this paper analyzes patterns in the earnings development of young labor market entrants over their life cycle we identify four distinctly different types of transition patterns between discrete earnings states in a large administrative dataset further we investigate the effects of labor market conditions at the time of entry on the probability of belonging to each transition type to estimate our statistical model we use a model based clustering approach the statistical challenge in our application comes from the difficulty in extending distance based clustering approaches to the problem of identifying groups of similar time series in a panel of discrete valued time series we use markov chain clustering which is an approach for clustering discrete valued time series obtained by observing a categorical variable with several states this method is based on finite mixtures of first order time homogeneous markov chain models in order to analyze group membership we present an extension to this approach by formulating a probabilistic model for the latent group indicators within the bayesian classification rule using a multinomial logit model copyright 2011 john wiley sons ltd

work environment and individual background explaining regional shirking differentials in a large italian firm the prevalence of shirking within a large italian bank appears to be characterized by significant regional differentials in particular absenteeism and misconduct episodes are substantially more prevalent in the south we consider a number of potential explanations for this fact different individual backgrounds group interaction effects sorting of workers across regions differences in local attributes different hiring policies and discrimination against southern workers our analysis suggests that individual backgrounds group interaction effects and sorting effects contribute to explaining the north south shirking differential none of the other explanations appears to be of first order importance i introduction whether individual behavior is determined by group interactions or by individual background is undoubtedly a fundamental question for the social sciences this question presented itself forcefully when we stumbled onto the following piece of evidence there appear to be significant regional differentials in the prevalence of shirking among the employees of a large italian bank in particular absenteeism and misconduct episodes are considerably more frequent in the southern branches of the bank in this paper we examine several potential explanations for this fact first individual preferences for shirking versus working may differ according to one s region of hirth we will refer to this hj othesis as one of different individual hackgrounds the second possibility is one of locational sorting low shirking types may tend to migrate to the north high shirking types may tend to migrate to the south or hoth third the northern and southern

budget deficits and interest rates a fresh perspective we extend the literature on budget deficits and interest rates in three ways we examine both advanced and emerging economies and for the first time a large emerging market panel explore interactions to explain some of the heterogeneity in the literature and apply system gmm there is overall a highly significant positive effect of budget deficits on interest rates but the effect depends on interaction terms and is only significant under one of several conditions deficits are high mostly domestically financed or interact with high domestic debt financial openness is low interest rates are liberalized or financial depth is low

good skills in bad times cyclical skill mismatch and the long term effects of graduating in a recession abstract we show that cyclical skill mismatch defined as mismatch between the skills supplied by college graduates and skills demanded by hiring industries is an important mechanism behind persistent career loss from graduating in recessions using norwegian data we find a strong countercyclical pattern of skill mismatch among college graduates initial labor market conditions have a declining but persistent effect on match quality and skill mismatch early in their careers match quality of the first employment may explain up to half of the short term and most of the long term earnings loss from graduating in a recession

the myth of post reform income stagnation evidence from brazil and mexico economic policies are often judged by a handful of statistics some of which may be biased during periods of change we estimate the income growth implied by the evolution of food demand and durable good ownership in post reform brazil and mexico and find that changes in consumption patterns are inconsistent with official estimates of near stagnant incomes that is attributed to biases in the price deflator the estimated unmeasured income gains are higher for poorer households implying marked reductions in real inequality these findings challenge the conventional wisdom that post reform income growth was low and did not benefit the poor

the effect of implicit contracts on the movement of wages over the business cycle evidence from micro data in this paper we address the question of whether wages are affected by labor market conditions in a manner more consistent with a contract approach than with a standard spot market model from a simple implicit contract model we derive implications about the links between wages and past labor market conditions using individual data from the current population survey and the panel study of income dynamics we find that an implicit contract model with costless mobility describes these links better than either a simple spot market model or an implicit contract model with costly mobility

on the effects of ranking by unemployment duration abstract we propose a theory based on the firm s hiring behavior that rationalizes the observed significant decline of callback rates for an interview and exit rates from unemployment and the mild decline of reemployment wages over unemployment duration we build a directed search model with symmetric incomplete information on worker types and non sequential search by firms sorting due to firms testing of applicants in the past makes expected productivity fall with duration which induces firms to rank applicants by duration in equilibrium callback and exit rates both fall with unemployment duration in our numerical exercise using u s data we show that our model can replicate quite well the observed falling patterns with the firm s ranking decision accounting for a sizable part

a specification test of the heckscher ohlin theory abstract under strong assumptions the heckscher ohlin model predicts not only that factor endowment differences alone determine trade patterns but that they do so in a particularly simple way the factor content of trade should be a linear function of national and world factor endowments the evident empirical shortcomings of this simple relationship need not however imply the more general empirical failure of endowment based trade theories this paper provides empirical evidence consistent with a more general endowment based model by showing that the strong heckscher ohlin relationship excludes important additional channels through which factor endowments affect the pattern of trade

rate of return to schooling and business cycles this paper examines the effects of the economic conditions unemployment rate and unemployment change on the rate of returns to schooling as well as the effects on the gender difference in the

regulation and distrust in a cross section of countries government regulation is strongly negatively correlated with social capital we document this correlation and present a model explaining it in the model distrust creates public demand for regulation while regulation in turn discourages social capital accumulation leading to multiple equilibria a key implication of the model is that individuals in low trust countries want more government intervention even though the government is corrupt we test this and other implications of the model using country and individual level data on social capital and beliefs about government s role as well as on changes in beliefs and in trust during the transition from socialism

the effects of macroeconomic conditions at graduation on overeducation this article shows that unfavorable economic conditions at graduation decrease the likelihood of a good job worker match over a worker s subsequent career mismatch is quantified in terms of overeducation by both industry and occupation the german socio economic panel and region level unemployment rates from 1994 to 2012 are used instrumental variables estimates account for endogenous graduation timing a single percentage point increase in regional unemployment causes an increase in the probability of overeducation of 1 6 1 7 percentage points for university graduates effects for technical tertiary education and apprenticeship graduates are smaller labor market entry conditions affect workers for up to 9 years after graduation jel j23 j22 e32 i23

trust in large organizations several authors suggest that trust is an important determinant of cooperation between strangers in a society and therefore of performance of social institutions we argue that trust should be particularly important for the performance of large organizations in a cross section of countries evidence on government performance participation in civic and professional societies importance of large firms and the performance of social institutions more generally supports this hypothesis moreover trust is lower in countries with dominant hierarchical religions which may have deterred networks of cooperation trust hold up remarkably well on a cross section of countries this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the internal economics of the firm evidence from personnel data we analyze twenty years of personnel data from one firm the hierarchical structure is quite simple and stable career movements suggest that the employee s rate of learning and the firm s learning about ability are important there are promotion fast tracks exit rates vary little with tenure or salary the firm has personnel policies like those described in the internal labor markets literature although several theoretical preconditions for ilms such as ports of entry and exit are lacking job levels are important to compensation but there is also substantial individual variation in pay within levels our companion paper in this issue explores the wage policy of this firm

labor market institutions and long term effects of youth unemployment graduating from a school during a time of adverse economic conditions has a persistent harmful effect on workers subsequent employment opportunities an analysis of panel data from oecd countries during the 1960 2010 periods reveals that a worker who experiences a 1 percentage point higher unemployment rate while the worker is 16 24 years old has a 0 14 percentage point higher unemployment rate at ages 25 29 years and 0 03 percentage points higher at ages 30 34 years the persistence of this negative effect is stronger in countries with stricter employment protection legislation a composite index for labor market rigidity is constructed and the index is shown to have positive correlation with the persistence moderating macroeconomic fluctuations is more important in countries that have more persistent labor market entry effects on subsequent outcomes

economic development as self discovery in the presence of uncertainty about what a country can be good at producing there can be great social value to discovering costs of domestic activities because such discoveries can be easily imitated we develop a general equilibrium framework for a small open economy to clarify the analytical and normative issues we highlight two failures of the laissez faire outcome there is too little investment and entrepreneurship ex ante and too much production diversification ex post optimal policy consists of counteracting these distortions to encourage investments in the modern sector ex ante but to rationalize production ex post we provide some informal evidence on the building blocks of our model

how much bang for the buck mexico and dollarization two arguments advanced in favor of mexico abandoning the peso and adopting the u s dollar are to lower exchange rate volatility and inflation we are not able to identify an independent link between economic growth and either the exogenous component of exchange rate volatility or the exogenous component of inflation exchange rate volatility generally reflects other factors rather than representing an independent growth determinant the findings are consistent with theoretical predictions that inflation influences growth by affecting financial development however we present suggestive evidence that legal reforms offer greater financial development dividends for mexico than adopting the dollar two of the main arguments advanced in favor of mexico abandoning the peso and adopting the u s dollar are 1 to lower inflation and inflation uncertainty and 2 to reduce exchange rate volatility from 1960 tol995 mexico s annual inflation rate averaged about 24 5 percent while inflation in the united states averaged 5 5 percent in addition mexico has experienced severe exchange rate fluctuations against the dollar especially in the last fifteen years supporters of complete dollarization believe that reducing the rate of inflation which moves very closely with the volatility of inflation toward u s levels and eliminating exchange rate variability vis a vis the u s dollar will enhance the business climate and thereby promote economic performance if lower inflation rates and less exchange rate variability boost growth then this strengthens the case for dollarization if however inflation and exchange rate variability do not exert large impacts on economic activity then the arguments in favor of dollarization must be sought elsewhere besides inflation and exchange rate volatility policymakers must contemplate an array of factors in deciding on dollarization dollarization would eliminate discretionary monetary policy and limit lender of last resort facilities during financial sec

self discovery in a development strategy for el salvador we study the causes of low growth in el salvador a country with an impressive record of political macroeconomic and structural reform we apply a growth diagnostic methodology and conclude that market failures in the process of self discovering the country s productive potential is a main obstacle to investment and growth we propose a set of policies to tackle this constraint

trust firm organization and the pattern of comparative advantage interpersonal trust favors the delegation of decisions and tasks within firms allowing the expansion of more productive units we show that this interaction between trust and firm organization contributes to shaping the pattern of comparative advantage high trust regions and countries exhibit larger value added and export shares in delegation intensive industries relative to other industries consistent with the idea that trust allows firms to expand beyond a narrow circle of family members and friends such effects are driven by an increase in average firm size reflecting in turn a shift of the size distribution away from the smallest firms and toward the small to medium ones according to our estimates trust is no less relevant than human or physical capital or institutions in shaping the pattern of comparative advantage

the lasting effects of leaving school in an economic downturn on alcohol use the author tests whether leaving school in an economic downturn persistently affects alcohol use she models alcohol use in middle age as a function of the state unemployment rate at school leaving in the national longitudinal survey of youth 1979 cohort the results suggest that men but not women who leave school in an economic downturn consume more drinks and are more likely to report heavy and binge drinking than otherwise similar men findings are robust to addressing the endogeneity of the time and location of school leaving and contribute to the literature on the lasting consequences of leaving school in an economic downturn

the firm as a communication network this paper analyzes how organizations can minimize costs of processing and communicating information communication is costly because it takes time for an agent to absorb new information sent by others agents can reduce this time by specializing in the processing of particular types of information when these returns to specialization outweigh costs of communication it is efficient for several agents to collaborate within a firm it is shown that efficient networks involve centralization that individuals delegate tasks to subordinates only if they are overloaded and that the number of transits to the top tends to be equalized across individual information items

employment tenure and earnings profiles in japan and the united states comments the relationship between job tenure and annual earnings in japan has received considerable attention from social scientists examining employment contracts and the japanese compensation system in their widely cited article masanori hashimoto and john raisian 1985 using data for 1980 showed that japanese men have greater job tenure than comparable workers in the united states and that the earnings of japanese men rise more rapidly with increased tenure they found that an additional year of tenure increases earnings in both small and large firms in japan more than does an additional year of general market experience their results for the united states indicate that general market experience increases earnings more than an additional year of job tenure the 1970 s and 1980 s were a period of substantial change in japanese labor markets due to the rapid aging of the population and the restructuring of the economy following the oil crisis the present analysis extends the work of hashimoto and raisian by estimating earnings equations for japanese men for the years 1971 1976 1981 and 1986 specifically we wish to investigate whether hashimoto and raisian s findings have been stable over time or whether changes in the labor market have altered the importance of tenure relative to total labor market experience in the japanese labor market i changes in the labor market

crime scars recessions and the making of career criminals recessions lead to short term job loss lower levels of happiness and decreasing income levels there is growing evidence that workers who first join the labour market during economic downturns suffer from poor job matches that have a sustained detrimental effect on their wages and career progression this paper uses a range of us and uk data to document a more disturbing long run effect of recessions young people who leave school in the midst of recessions are significantly more likely to lead a life of crime than those graduating into a buoyant labour market these effects are long lasting and substantial

export sophistication and economic growth evidence from china we consider the effect of export sophistication on economic performance by appealing to regional variation within one single country china over the 1997 2009 period we find evidence in support of hausmann hwang and rodrik 2007 in that regions specializing in more sophisticated goods subsequently grow faster we find substantial variation in export sophistication at the province and prefecture level controlling for the level of development and that this sophistication in turn drives growth our results suggest that these gains are limited to the ordinary export activities undertaken by domestic firms no direct gains result from either processing trade activities or foreign firms even though these are the main contributors to the global upgrading of china s exports as such the extent of assembly trade and foreign entities should be distinguished in order to measure the true movement in a country s technology and the contribution of exports to economic growth

investment and demand uncertainty this paper investigates the effects of uncertainty on the investment decisions of a sample of italian manufacturing firms using information on the subjective probability distribution of future demand for firms products according to the entrepreneurs the results support the view that uncertainty weakens the response of investment to demand thus slowing down capital accumulation consistent with the predictions of the theory there is considerable heterogeneity in the effect of uncertainty on investment it is stronger for firms that cannot easily reverse investment decisions and for those with substantial market power we show that the negative effect of uncertainty on investment cannot be explained by uncertainty proxying for liquidity constraints

trust regulation and market failures abstract government regulation of firms is associated with more negative externalities and unofficial activity across countries i argue that this correlation mainly reflects causality going from concerns about market failures to demand for government intervention using trust in others as a proxy for such concerns i show that differences in trust explain a great deal of variation in entry regulations then controlling for trust in the regression of market failures on regulation the latter is no longer associated with worse economic outcomes the same result is confirmed when i exploit country population as an alternative source of variation in regulation

current account deficits in africa stylized facts and basic determinants abstract this article analyzes the behavior of current account deficits in africa the findings are that deficits are i not very persistent ii positively linked with domestic growth iii strongly linked with public and private savings suggesting that fiscal consolidation in imf supported programs may be relatively effective iv linked with aid flows so as to close the external gap and v linked with currency depreciation and the terms of trade

are college graduates more responsive to distant labor market opportunities abstract are highly educated workers better at locating in areas with high labor demand to answer this question i use three decades of u s census data to estimate a mcfadden style model of residential location choice i test for education differentials in the likelihood that young workers reside in states experiencing positive labor demand shocks at the time these workers entered the labor market i find effects of changes in state labor demand on college graduate location choice that are several times greater than for high school graduates nevertheless medium run wage effects of entry labor market conditions for college graduates equal or exceed those of less educated workers

has latin america s post reform growth been disappointing after years of poor economic performance many latin american countries undertook ambitious programs of macroeconomic stabilization and structural reform in recent years this change in policy created high expectations for the region and some observers have questioned whether actual growth outcomes have lived up to these expectations the authors offer evidence that the response of economic growth to reforms in latin america has not been disappointing because of their significant policy changes and despite a global slowdown latin america did well to return to its historic growth rate of 2 percent per capita in 1990 93 latin america has responded to changes in policy variables as would have been predicted by the experience of other times and places those earlier experiences are summarized by a panel regression spanning many countries and multi year periods from 1960 to 1993 to get consistent estimates of the parameters linking growth and policy variables the authors use a dynamic panel methodology that both controls for unobserved time and country specific effects and accounts for the likely internal dynamism of the explanatory variables

economic conditions at school leaving and self employment in this study we use the national longitudinal survey of youth 1979 to estimate the impact of economic conditions at school leaving on self employment across the lifecourse we find no evidence that the economic conditions at school leaving affect self employment

finance and the sources of growth the authors evaluate whether the level of development in the banking sector exerts a causal impact on economic growth and its sources total factor productivity growth physical capital accumulation and private saving they use 1 a pure cross country instrumental variable estimator to extract the exogenous component of banking development and 2 a new panel technique that controls for country specific effects and endogeneity they find that banks do exert a large causal impact on total factor productivity growth which feeds through to overall gdp gross domestic product growth the long run links between banking development and both capital growth and private savings are more tenuous

what drives private saving around the world the authors investigate the policy and non policy factors behind saving disparities using a large panel data set and an encompassing approach including several relevant determinants of private saving they extend the literature in several dimensions by 1 using the largest data set on aggregate saving assembled to date 2 using panel instrumental variable techniques to correct for endogeneity and heterogeneity 3 performing robustness checks on changes in estimation procedures data samples and model specification their main empirical findings a private saving rates show considerable inertia are highly serially correlated even after controlling for other relevant factors b private sector rates rise with the level and growth rate of real per capita income so policies that spur development are in indirect but effective way to raise private saving rates c predictions of the life cycle hypothesis are supported in that dependency ratios generally have a negative effect on private saving rates d the precautionary motive for saving is supported by the finding that inflation conventionally taken as a summary measure of macroeconomic volatility has a positive impact on private saving holding other facts constant e fiscal policy is a moderately effective tool for raising national saving f the direct effect of financial liberalization are largely detrimental to private saving rates greater availability of credit reduces the private saving rate financial depth and higher real interest rates do not increase saving