does exchange rate variability depress trade flows evidence from error correction models this paper examines the impact of exchange rate volatility on the trade flows of the g 7 countries in the context of a multivariate error correction model the error correction models do not show any sign of parameter instability the results indicate that the exchange rate volatility has a significant negative impact on the volume of exports in each of the g 7 countries assuming market participants are risk averse these results imply that exchange rate uncertainty causes them to reduce their activities change prices or shift sources of demand and supply in order to minimize their exposure to the effects of exchange rate volatility this in turn can change the distribution of output across many sectors in these countries it is quite possible that the surprisingly weak relationship between trade flows and exchange rate volatility reported in several previous studies are due to insufficient attention to the stochastic properties of the relevant time series copyright 1993 by mit press

seasonality leading indicators and alternative business cycle theories rolling regressions and granger causality tests are used to examine the predictive ability of seasonally adjusted and unadjusted leading economic indicators for the us economy many of the unadjusted variables perform better than their adjusted counterparts but asymmetric behaviour is also evident alternative leading indicators such as the bond spread and the fed funds rate do not predict cycles as well as real money balances unadjusted real business failure liabilities and business formation also appear to perform well

exchange rate volatility and foreign trade evidence from thirteen ldc s this article investigates empirically the impact of real exchange rate volatility on the export flows of 13 less developed countries ldc s over the quarterly period 1973 1996 estimates of the cointegrating relations are obtained using johansen s multivariate procedure estimates of the short run dynamics are obtained for each country using the error correction technique the major results show that increases in the volatility of the real effective exchange rate approximating exchange rate uncertainty exert a significant negative effect on export demand in both the short run and the long run in each of the 13 ldc s these effects may result in significant reallocation of resources by market participants

measuring the bullwhip effect for supply chains with seasonal demand components abstract a bullwhip measure for a two stage supply chain with an order up to inventory policy is derived for a general stationary sarma p q p q s demand process explicit expressions for several sarma models are obtained to illustrate the key relationship between lead time and seasonal lag it is found that the bullwhip effect can be reduced considerably by shortening the lead time in relation to the seasonal lag value

the effects of exchange rate volatility on exports some new estimates investigations of the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports have not allowed for the integrated non stationary of the variables employed in estimation the results reported in this note are suggestive that in the context of an error correction framework real exchange rate volatility has a significant impact on exports

what have macroeconomists learned about business cycles from the study of seasonal cycles this paper argues that analysis of seasonal fluctuations can shed light on the nature of business cycle fluctuations the fundamental reason is that in many instances identifying restrictions about seasonal fluctuations are more believable than analogous restrictions about nonseasonal fluctuations the authors show that seasonal fluctuations provide good examples of preference shifts and synergistic equilibria they also find evidence against production smoothing and in favor of unmeasured variation in labor and capital utilization in some industries capacity constraints appear to bind copyright 1996 by mit press

on seasonal cycles unit roots and mean shifts the interpretation of seasonality in terms of economic behavior depends on the form of the econometric time series model that allows for a description of seasonality popular models often assume ei

a winning proposition the economic impact of successful national football league franchises it was the best of times and it was the worst of times this classic phrase could be used to describe the period of 1990 through 1993 for fans of the buffalo bills the bills performed well enough to win the american football conference championship four consecutive years but each year the team s season ended with a super bowl defeat the purpose of this study is to determine if fans of successful but not world champion sport teams like the buffalo bills experience economic benefits in conjunction with their team s successes coates and humphreys 2002 examined whether a sports team winning a championship had a positive effect on the real per capita personal income of the local metropolitan area despite examining various measures of success across several different sports 1 coates and humphreys found that the local national football league nfl team winning the super bowl was the only variable that had a significant positive effect on income although matheson 2006 shows evidence contradicting the findings coates and humphreys results are interesting when considered in the context of other similar studies that fail to find a positive effect from the presence of the teams in the city coates and humphreys 1999 2003 the building of stadia for the teams coates and humphreys 1999 or the presence of major events like the super bowl or world cup baade and matheson 2000 2004 matheson and baade 2006 on local income in this paper we use a psychological framework to provide a rationale for the increased economic well being associated with a super bowl victory additionally we rely on the psychological literature and argue that the economic benefits of a winning team should extend beyond just the championship team to the cities of teams that experience seasonal success to examine whether a winning effect can be extended to all teams in the league and is not limited to just the super bowl champion we include the winning percentage of the local nfl team although lacking a formal model the psychological literature suggests multiple individual level processes that may account for the economic impact of winning percentage to test whether the effect is based on increased consumption or increased productivity we estimate our models on the real wage income per capita as well as personal income additionally because the econometric model is a dynamic panel series model a model that can exhibit substantial bias in the coefficients judson and owen 1999 we use the method of arellano and bond 1991 to correct for bias this method also provides insight in regard to the directionality of the winning percentage and personal income relationship specifically that winning percentage drives changes in personal income as opposed to changes in personal income impacting winning percentage in the arellano bond estimations winning percentage is treated as endogenous meaning within the system while the remaining variables are treated as being exogenous as an additional further check we reestimate the model including team salary if the direction of causation flows from income to winning it would be indicated by increases in the coefficient on payroll for the team the results show that even after including team salaries in the model winning percentage still positively impacts income i psychological impact of sport team s success research has consistently demonstrated that people go to great lengths to publicly identify with winning sport teams cialdini et al 1976 cialdini and richardson 1980 end 2001 joinson 2000 wann and branscombe 1990 this tendency to bask in the reflected glory cialdini et al 1976 is related to event specific success a team s victory and global success winning percentage qualifying for play offs etc specifically end et al 2002 found that when sport fans were asked to identify their favorite teams the teams with which they identified had an average winning percentage significantly greater than 50

the effects of macroeconomic stability on foreign trade an analysis for spain 1986 2000 two main factors underlie the rebirth of interest in the study of the influence of the real exchange rate on trade the reduction of its volatility and the current trend towards price stability the objective of this study is to analyse the effects of the process of nominal convergence required of the european member states for the fulfilment of monetary integration on foreign trade flows the case of spain which is especially interesting in this context is studied for the period 1986 to 2000 the results of estimating the aggregate functions of the export and import of goods shows how macroeconomic stability has altered the behaviour of trade with respect to the two basic determinants income and prices how it has caused a significant structural change in the real exchange rate and finally how it has laid the explanatory bases for transactions in the twenty first century with the single currency the euro

capacity constraint and changing seasonality over business cycles evidence from plant level production data the seasonal variability of production shrinks during a boom not only at the industry level but also at the plant level since this relationship is significant especially among plants with high capacity utilization our finding is consistent with the capacity constraint hypothesis

recent advances in modelling seasonality abstract in this paper we review recent developments in econometric modelling of economic time series with seasonality the prime focus is on econometric models which incorporate explicit descriptions of seasonal variation instead of removing this variation using a seasonal adjustment method this review centres around developments in seasonal unit root models and in periodic parameter models both in the univariate and multivariate context several empirical examples are used for illustration we also discuss several areas for further research

exchange rate volatility and international trading strategy abstract it is usually argued that an increase in exchange rate volatility reduces the volume of international trade as trading firms are risk averse this paper shows that exporting firms benefit under fairly general conditions from an increase in exchange rate volatility firms optimally adjust their export volumes to the level of the exchange rate exporting is an option which is exercised if profitable in addition the paper presents conditions under which the volume of international trade grows with exchange rate volatility

exchange rate volatility and exports from east asian countries to japan and the usa the purpose of this article is to investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports in four east asian countries hong kong south korea singapore and thailand specifically this article aims at determining whether the bilateral real exchange rate volatility between an east asian country and its trading partner negatively affects the exports of the east asian country considering the dominant roles of the usa and japan as trading partners of those east asian countries this article focuses on the quarterly export volumes of east asian countries to the us and japan for the period from 1981 to 2004 except for the case of hong kong s exports to japan cointegration tests and estimations of error correction models indicate exchange rate volatility has negative impacts on exports either in the short run or in the long run or both on the other hand the real gdp of importing countries and depreciation of real bilateral exchange rates turn out in general to have positive effects of special

venture capital high technology and regional development florida r l and kenney m 1988 venture capital high technology and regional development reg studies 22 33 48 this paper explores the role of venture capital in technological innovation and regional development both aggregate data and a unique firm level data base are employed to determine the location of major centres of venture capital flows of venture capital investments and patterns of investment syndication or coinvestment among venture capital firms three major centres of venture capital are identified california san francisco silicon valley new york and new england massachusetts connecticut as well as three minor venture capital centres illinois chicago texas and minnesota venture capital firms are found to cluster in areas with high concentrations of financial institutions and those with high concentrations of technology intensive enterprises venture capital firms which are based in financial centres are typically export oriented while those in technology centres tend t

spurious deterministic seasonality it is sometimes assumed that the r2 of a regression of a first order differenced time series on seasonal dummy variables reflects the amount of seasonal fluctuations that can be explained by deterministic variation in the series in this paper we show that neglecting the presence of seasonal unit roots may yield spuriously high values of this coefficient

the seasonal cycle in u s manufacturing abstract this paper examines the seasonal cycle in the manufacturing sector of the u s economy the most significant feature is a sharp slowdown in july we argue that this event is not easily explained by technology or preference shifts but instead results from synergies across economic agents

exchange rate volatility international trade and the value of exporting firms abstract increased exchange rate volatility positively affects the value of exporting firms via the price and volume impacts of exchange rates and also makes an exporting strategy more attractive relative to the direct investment investment in export production capacity could therefore be a positive function of exchange rate volatility firms would also be more willing to sustain losses i e to engage in dumping before they abandon their export markets the effect on the volume and value of trade is ambiguous

the business cycle effects of christmas abstract why do countries and industries with large seasonal fluctuations also have large business cycles it is well known that seasonal fluctuations account for the bulk of total output fluctuations yet it is unknown whether seasonal fluctuations can trigger business cycles using a procedure that allows for identification of seasonal innovations i found that seasonal shocks explain 50 of the business cycle in aggregate output such findings provide a novel and powerful explanation for the observed strong correlation between seasonal fluctuations and business cycles the implication is that in addition to trying to determine whether it is monetary technology or other types of shocks that cause business cycles we should be looking at what causes seasonality

conditional exchange rate volatility and the volume of international trade evidence from the early 1900s exports from britain to the united states from 1900 to 1940 are examined to ascertain the effect of exchange rate volatility on the volume of trade in addition to using a rolling standard deviation measure of exchange rate uncertainty the conditional variance of the exchange rate series modeled as a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic process is used to generate an alternative measure of exchange rate uncertainty the results of estimation using the two measures of exchange rate volatility suggest that increases in the volatility of the real exchange rate reduce the volume of trade copyright 1992 by mit press

why do countries and industries with large seasonal cycles also have large business cycles we show that there is a strong positive correlation across countries and industries between the standard deviation of the seasonal component and the standard deviation of the nonseasonal component of aggregate variables after documenting this stylized fact we discuss possible explanations and develop a model that generates our empirical finding the main feature of the model is that firms endogenously choose their degree of technological flexibility as a function of the amounts of seasonal and nonseasonal variation in demand although this model is intended to be illustrative we find evidence supporting one of its key empirical implications

the impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade flows despite the best efforts of economists a basic paradox as to the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows remains unresolved at both the theoretical and empirical level this paper surveys the vast literature in the area in an attempt to identify major issues which have contributed to the development of the debate and examine whether any general direction for consensus may be found

hot and cold seasons in the housing market every year housing markets in the united kingdom and the united states experience systematic above trend increases in prices and transactions during the spring and summer hot season and below trend falls during the autumn and winter cold season house price seasonality poses a challenge to existing housing models we propose a search and matching model with thick market effects in thick markets the quality of matches increases rising buyers willingness to pay and sellers desire to transact a small deterministic driver of seasonality can be amplified and revealed as deterministic seasonality in transactions and prices quantitatively mimicking seasonal fluctuations in uk and us markets

the impact of the post 1972 floating exchange rate regime on us exports by employing the techniques of cointegration and error correction models this article empirically investigates the impact of the post 1972 floating exchange rate regime on the volume of us bilateral exports to canada germany japan and the uk the econometric models specified in the analysis were estimated using quarterly data for the sample period 1959 1 1997 4 the empirical results provide evidence that the post 1972 exchange rate regime is less conducive to trade than the bretton woods fixed exchange rate regime

identifying the common component of international economic fluctuations a new approach in this paper we develop an aggregation procedure using time varying weights for constructing the common component of international economic fluctuations the methodology for deriving time varying weights is based on some stylised features of the data documented in the paper the model allows for a unified treatment of cyclical and seasonal fluctuations and also accommodates the dynamic propagation of shocks across countries we find evidence for a world business cycle as well as evidence for a distinct european common component we also find some evidence that macroeconomic fluctuations have become more closely linked across industrial economies in the period after 1973 the world economy has become more closely integrated in recent years due to increasing trade and financial flows across countries this has spurred interest in the question of how the ongoing phenomenon of globalisation has affected the transmission and propagation of business cycle fluctuations across national borders an important question in this context is whether a substantial fraction of economic fluctuations are country specific or if there exists a world business cycle which might be defined as fluctuations that are common across all countries more generally the comovement of macroeconomic aggregates across different countries has become a topic of increasing interest in both academic and policy circles these issues have implications in a number of dimensions an empirical analysis of the relative importance of country specific versus common international fluctuations is of relevance for determining the structure of certain classes of international business cycle models from a policy perspective strong comovement of output across countries at business cycle frequencies implies that external trade would be unlikely to play a significant role in dampening fluctuations domestic policies aimed at affecting the real exchange rate and thereby attempting to boost net exports in the short run would then tend to have limited impact the degree of synchronisation of business cycles across countries also has important implications for short run international policy coordination and for assessing the feasibility of monetary unions therefore identifying and analysing the common component of international economic fluctuations is relevant from a number of different perspectives