the impact of possible climate catastrophes on global warming policy abstract recent studies on global warming have introduced the inherent uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of climate policies and have often shown that abatement policies are likely to be less aggressive or postponed in comparison to those resulting from traditional cost benefit analyses cba yet those studies have failed to include the possibility of sudden climate catastrophes the aim of this paper is to account simultaneously for possible continuous and discrete damages resulting from global warming and to analyse their implications on the optimal path of abatement policies our approach is related to the new literature on investment under uncertainty and relies on some recent developments of the real option in which we incorporated negative jumps climate catastrophes in the stochastic process corresponding to the net benefits associated with the abatement policies the impacts of continuous and discrete climatic risks can therefore be considered separately our numerical applications lead to two main conclusions i gradual continuous uncertainty in the global warming process is likely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies with respect to the standard cba however ii the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policies as their net discounted benefits increase significantly

the greenhouse effect damages costs and abatement the buildup of so called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere co2 in particular appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate this paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects their potential costs to society and likely costs of abatement for a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess in economic terms the full range of possible non linear synergistic effects in the most favorable although not necessarily likely case of slow paced climate change however it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range at least in the industrialized countries of the world in the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible we tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate induced damages at 30 to 35 per ton of co2 equivalent worldwide with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea level rise the non quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded the costs and benefits of 1 reducing cfc use and 2 reducing fossil fuel consumption as a means of abatement are considered in some detail this strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers the indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from 20 to 60 per ton of co2 eliminated in addition there is good evidence that modest e g 25 reductions in co2 emissions may be achievable by the u s and by implication for other countries by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits savings to energy consumers of the order of 50 per ton of co2 saved a higher level of overall emissions reduction possibly approaching 50 could probably be achieved at little or not net cost by taking advantage of these savings we suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction or a carbon tax as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and co2 emissions to minimize the economic burden and create a political constituency in support of the approach we suggest the substitution of resource based taxes in general for other types of taxes on labor income real estate or trade that are now the main sources of government revenue while it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy making in fact we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria

pigou meets mirrlees on the irrelevance of tax distortions for the second best pigouvian tax this paper extends the mirrlees 1971 model of optimal income redistribution with optimal corrective taxes to internalize consumption externalities using general utility structures and exploring both linear and non linear taxes it is demonstrated that the optimal second best tax on an externality generating good should not be corrected for the marginal cost of public funds since it equals one in the optimal tax system in the optimum distortions of income taxes are equal to marginal redistributional gains if the government does not have access to a non distortionary marginal source of finance the marginal cost of public funds can be either larger or smaller than one depending on subjective preferences for income redistribution the optimal second best corrective tax is then either higher or lower than the pigouvian level the findings in this paper generalize and amend prior results based on representative agent models shedding new light on the weak double dividend hypothesis and on the welfare gains of recycling revenue from environmental taxes

green taxes in a post paris world are millions of nays inevitable turning the paris agreement s greenhouse gas emissions pledges into domestic policies is the next challenge for governments we address the question of the acceptability of cost effective climate policy in a real voting setting first we analyze voting behavior in a large ballot on energy taxes rejected in switzerland in 2015 by more than 2 million people energy taxes were aimed at completely replacing the current value added tax we examine the determinants of voting and find that distributional and competitiveness concerns reduced the acceptability of energy taxes along with the perception of ineffectiveness most people would have preferred tax revenues to be allocated for environmental purposes second at the same time of the ballot we tested the acceptability of alternative designs of a carbon tax with a choice experiment survey on a representative sample of the swiss population survey respondents are informed about environmental distributional and competitiveness effects of each carbon tax design these impacts are estimated with a computable general equilibrium model this original setting generates a series of novel results providing information on the expected environmental effectiveness of carbon taxes reduces the demand for environmental earmarking making distributional effects salient generates an important demand for progressive designs e g social cushioning or recycling via lump sum transfers the case of lump sum recycling is particularly striking it is sufficient to show its desirable distributional properties to make it one of the most preferred designs which corresponds to a completely novel result in the literature we show that providing detailed information on the functioning of environmental taxes may contribute to close both the gap between acceptability ex ante and ex post and the gap between economists prescriptions and the preferences of the general public

how fast should we graze the global commons unlike the vast preponderance of planets earth has been bequeathed a hospitable environment in which to thrive up to now man s activities have affected this environment negligibly scientists are becoming convinced however that release of carbon dioxide co2 from combustion of fossil fuels will lead to a significant modification of the global climate see woodwell how should we think about such a destruction of our heritage should it be treated as anathema like bondage or should the pace and extent of use of our global commons be subject to the same reasoned balancing of costs and benefits as other economic activities the present paper takes the second approach asking how fast the global economy should allow a buildup of atmospheric co2 the first section reviews the current scientific knowledge on this subject while the second puts this into an optimal growth framework the third section then presents a numerical example while the last presents some realistic policy views on the subject this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

attitudes towards carbon taxes across europe the role of perceived uncertainty and self interest abstract while using carbon taxes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions may well be effective this has recently proved too unpopular to put into practice in a number of countries yet at a time when governments across the world are preparing their nationally determined contributions to the paris agreement our knowledge of whether and why people oppose these taxes originates from a single or small number of cases drawing on the european social survey n 44 387 this article provides evidence on public attitudes towards increasing taxes on fossil fuels to reduce climate change from 23 countries most of which have never featured in the literature before the results point to a widespread aversion to carbon taxes on the one hand this worsens with the perceived costs of taxes such as the case among consumers who depend highly on energy on the other it improves with political trust and external political efficacy factors that help ease the uncertainty around policy proposals our estimations suggest that the effect of changes in these factors alone would be large enough to reverse the public resistance to carbon taxes in some countries these results are robust to a number of alternative specifications and various checks

coal taxation reform in china and its distributional effects on residential consumers abstract there is an ongoing reform in coal taxation in china from a quantity based to a price based approach while the coal tax could play an important role in resource conservation and air pollution reduction its distributional effect is not well studied this paper investigates the distributional effect of china s coal taxes on households before and after the reform we find that about 30 percent of rural households and six percent of urban households are directly affected by the coal taxes and that the directly affected households tend to be poor we also find that provinces are affected differently by the coal taxes the provinces that are more affected tend to have lower household income by the suits index we find that both the quantity based and price based coal taxes are regressive for residential consumers in china and that the coal taxation reform had little effect on the regressivity of the coal tax by simulation we find that the regressivity of the coal tax could be reduced if the tax rate were set to be positively correlated with provincial household income

on the choice of funtional form for hedonic price functions this study examines how errors in measuring marginal attribute pric es vary with the form of the hedonic price function in simulations consumers with known utility functions bid for houses with given attributes various forms of the hedonic function are estimated using equilibrium housing prices errors in estimating marginal attribute prices are calculated by comparing each consumer s equilibrium marginal bid vector with the gradient of the hedonic function when all attributes are observed linear and quadratic box cox forms produce lowest mean percentage errors however when some attributes are unobserved or are replaced by proxies linear and linear box cox functions perform best copyright 1988 by mit press

how to make a carbon tax reform progressive the role of subsistence consumption this letter analyzes the distributional effects of a carbon tax reform when households must consume carbon intensive goods above a subsistence level the reform is progressive if revenues are recycled as uniform lump sum transfers in other cases it is regressive

a new carbon tax in portugal a missed opportunity to achieve the triple dividend in 2014 the portuguese government appointed a commission for environmental tax reform that formulated a carbon tax proposal designed to achieve three dividends to help portugal meet the european union s target for emissions reductions by 2030 to boost long term employment and gdp above their pre carbon tax levels and to strengthen public finances by lowering public indebtedness a key feature of this proposal was a judicious set of mixed strategies to recycle all carbon tax revenues back into the economy in this note we show how the carbon tax that the portuguese parliament eventually approved deviated from such guidelines and ultimately failed to achieve the triple dividend we argue that authorities need to quickly amend the existing legislation to avoid this misguided attempt turning into a missed opportunity to improve environmental macroeconomic and fiscal outcomes

what determines urban households willingness to pay for co2 emission reductions in turkey a contingent valuation survey abstract this paper explores turkish urban households willingness to pay wtp for co2 emission reductions expected to result from improvements in power production a face to face questionnaire with a contingent valuation cv module prepared using the double bounded dichotomous choice elicitation framework was administered to 2422 respondents representative of urban turkey a developing country with low but rapidly increasing greenhouse gas emissions the determinants of wtp were identified by considering not only the impact of standard socio economic factors but also the effects of environmental knowledge attitudes and behaviour the relevance of the identity of the collection agent national versus international institutions in terms of trust people have towards them and the degree of perceived participation of others in the realization of the project our study confirms the existing literature in demonstrating that wtp figures reported by young and educated people that are active on environmental issues and who also possess material security and environmental knowledge are more likely to be high however their willingness to make contributions is hampered significantly by their belief that their fellow citizens will not contribute and the general lack of trust in institutions overall this study may be taken as a call to eliminate governance related uncertainties in climate change deals

what factors drive inequalities in carbon tax incidence decomposing socioeconomic inequalities in carbon tax incidence in ireland abstract carbon taxes increase the cost of necessary household energy expenditures in many developed countries carbon taxes are regressive as they comprise a greater proportion of a poorer household s income certain socioeconomic groups are more negatively affected by these impacts than others while inequality of incidence by income group has received great attention in the literature a gap exists to quantify the inequality associated with socioeconomic characteristics this information is policy relevant as it may inform the most effective means to offset negative welfare impacts through changes to taxes and or social transfers this paper provides this contribution first the inequality of carbon tax incidence across the income spectrum is quantified using the concentration index methodology a subsequent multivariate decomposition quantifies the contribution each socioeconomic factor makes towards this inequality of incidence this is carried out for electricity motor fuel and all other home fuels to elicit variation of socioeconomic incidence by source while income contributes a great deal towards inequality of incidence for other home fuels other socioeconomic characteristics are the primary determinants of electricity and motor fuel related carbon tax incidence the relative importance of each characteristic in determining regressive impacts is quantified and this varies by carbon tax source

a choice experiment on fuel taxation and earmarking in norway abstract pigouvian taxes are efficient but unpopular among voters and hence often politically infeasible earmarking of revenues has been widely reported to increase public support for taxes but earmarking is generally not the most efficient use of the revenues this trade off between efficiency and political feasibility is the motivation for our primary research objective to quantify the effect of earmarking on support for fuel tax rises our secondary research objective is to investigate why earmarking increases support using data from a representative sample of the norwegian voter population n 1147 we estimate models of voter preferences for fuel taxes using logistic regression models our results show that in the absence of earmarking the majority of voters would like to reduce fuel taxes but earmarking the revenues for environmental measures has a substantial effect on voter support for fuel tax increases garnering a majority for increases of up to 15 above present levels further analysis indicates that a prime reason why earmarking for environmental measures is popular is that it increases the perceived environmental effectiveness of the tax and hence its legitimacy as an environmental rather than a fiscal policy instrument

measuring wellbeing performance of carbon emissions using hybrid measure and meta frontier techniques empirical tests for g20 countries and implications for china abstract a quantitative measure of performance that integrates national level carbon emission profiles with key parameters of social and economic wellbeing can provide an effective management tool for policy interventions this paper constructs non parametric evaluation and decomposition models using hybrid measure and meta frontier techniques the proposed models are employed to estimate the wellbeing performance of carbon emissions wpce and identify the sources of wpce inefficiency empirical analyses based on the group 20 g20 countries for the 2000 2015 period shows the worst performance is in the brics country group i e brazil russia india china and south africa known for rapid growth whereas the developed and the developing economies of the g20 group show positive trajectories of performance as for china its performance measure of wpce was the lowest among the g20 indicating significant potential for further improvement the analysis also highlights the role of managerial failure as the primary driver of inefficiency more important than technological inefficiency in explaining efficiency loss within the g20 countries this critical finding the relevance and importance of managerial capability suggests the need for a high level of attention to governance and managerial capacity to ensure continued improvements in performance on carbon emissions and human wellbeing a lesson to be drawn from this study is that china s policies to promote a low carbon economy can benefit from increased priority given to low carbon technological innovation for the energy system transition and enhancement of environmental governance and managerial capacity to achieve a long term sustainability

malthus and climate change betting on a stable population abstract a standard assumption in integrated assessment models of climate change is that population and productivity are growing but at a decreasing rate we explore the significance of the assumption of population and productivity growth for greenhouse gas abatement after all there has been no long run slowdown in the growth of productivity over the past few centuries and the rate of population growth has actually been increasing for the past 19 centuries even if either of these growth rates were expected to slow by how much is subject to great uncertainty we show computationally that such continued growth greatly increases the severity of climate change indeed we find that climate change is a problem in large part caused by exogenous population and productivity growth rapid reductions in growth make climate change a small problem smaller reductions in growth imply climate change is a very serious problem indeed analogously reductions in the growth rate of population can be effective in controlling climate change

costs of reducing global carbon emissions po rojecting the costs of reducing carbon emissions is extremely important and exceedingly difficult such projections are an integral component of cost benefit analyses of alternative policies for example for the global climate policy analysis described by william nordhaus in this symposium moreover the nature of the climate change problem dictates that costs be incurred long before benefits can be realized or accurately measured consequently the political spotlight predictably focuses on the cost estimates whenever specific policy options are contemplated projecting the costs of reducing carbon emissions is difficult because many assumptions must be made about how the world will evolve over a very long period of time with and without a control program typically some of these assumptions like population growth are taken from outside sources other factors like the response of energy demand to changes in economic output or energy prices are the result of modeling the behavior of economic actors in response to exogenous stimuli considerable uncertainty exists about both the exogenous factors and the best way to model the behavioral responses the global nature of the climate change problem adds yet another complication to the cost analysis scientists have concluded that it is the global concentration of carbon in the atmosphere that influences climate moreover since carbon in the atmosphere gets mixed more or less uniformly emissions anywhere change concentrations everywhere but with a long lead time current global carbon emissions are estimated to be only about 4 percent of the stock of co2 in the atmosphere attributable to human activity and about

economic instruments for environmental regulation our knowledge about economic incentive approaches to pollution control has grown rapidly in the two decades in which they have received serious analytical attention not only have the theoretical models become more focused and the empirical work more detailed but we have now had over a decade of experience with emissions trading in the u s and emission charges in europe as the world community becomes increasingly conscious of both the need to tighten environmental controls and the local economic perils associated with tighter controls in a highly competitive global marketplace it seems a propitious time to stand back and to organize what we have learned about this practical and promising approach to pollution control that may be especially relevant to current circumstances this paper draws upon economic theory empirical studies and actual experience with implementation to provide a brief overview of some of the major lessons we have learned about two economic incentive approaches emissions tradi copyright 1990 by oxford university press

using discrete choice models with experimental design data to forecast consumer demand for a unique cultural event an approach is developed to forecast participation in unique events with long gestation periods experimental observations of choice are derived for conjoint measurement type multiattribute alternatives that describe possible event configurations the choice data are analyzed by means of discrete choice econometric models a multinomial logit choice model is applied to forecast the choice of attendance at various types of international expositions the empirical work was part of the planning efforts undertaken to investigate the potential demand for an international exposition to be held in eastern australia in conjunction with the australian 1988 bicentennial celebrations

fuel poverty and energy efficiency obligations a critical assessment of the supplier obligation in the uk energy efficiency obligations or white certificates are increasingly used to reduce carbon emissions while the energy efficiency obligations were originally intended as carbon reduction and not fuel poverty policies due to recognition of the potential for regressive outcomes they often include provisions for vulnerable and low income customers intuitively reducing carbon emissions and alleviating fuel poverty seem to be two sides of the same coin there are however considerable tensions between the two when addressed through energy efficiency obligations particularly arising from the potentially regressive impacts of rising energy prices resulting from such obligations but also the complexity of targeting fuel poor households and the implications for deliverability despite those tensions the uk government decided to use energy efficiency obligations the supplier obligation as the main policy for reducing fuel poverty in light of the proposals this paper provides an analysis of the main tensions between carbon reduction and fuel poverty alleviation within energy efficiency obligations outlines the fuel poverty provisions of the british supplier obligation assesses its rules for identifying the fuel poor and provides a critical analysis of the planned policy changes based on this analysis alternative approaches to targeting fuel poverty within future supplier obligations are proposed

environmental taxation inequality and engel s law the double dividend of redistribution empirical evidence shows that low income households spend a high share of their income on pollution intensive goods this fuels the concern that an environmental tax reform could be regressive we employ a framework which accounts for the distributional effect of environmental taxes and the recycling of the revenues on both households and firms to quantify changes in the optimal tax structure and the equity impacts of an environmental tax reform we characterize when an optimal environmental tax reform does not increase inequality even if the tax system before the reform is optimal from a non environmental point of view if the tax system before the reform is calibrated to stylized data and is thus non optimal we find that there is a large scope for inequality reduction even if the government is restricted in its recycling options

public acceptance for environmental taxes self interest environmental and distributional concerns abstract while strongly recommended by economists it has often been politically difficult to impose taxes on externalities there is a substantial literature on public attitudes towards environmental taxes there has however been few comprehensive attempts to understand attitudes towards environmental taxes the main research question in this paper is which factors influence support for fuel taxation we propose a model of attitudes towards fuel taxation and test this model as well as more specific hypotheses using data from a representative survey of the adult norwegian population our results suggest that support for fuel taxation is best predicted by beliefs about environmental consequences followed by beliefs about consequences to others beliefs about consequences to self self interest is the factor that explains the least variation in support for fuel taxation the academically interesting result that support cannot be well explained without capturing a broad range of motivational factors is also highly policy relevant it implies that there is no magic formula for increasing public support for environmental taxes there are however some issues which can be addressed trust in how well the government spends the revenue and the perception that taxation does very little to change behaviour and thus to reduce environmental problems

progressive consumption tax minimum consumption and inequality abstract in this note we study the effects of a progressive consumption tax on wealth and consumption inequality in a model economy featuring minimum consumption we show that increasing the lower and upper bounds of the progressive tax rate reduces wealth and consumption inequality in the long run but is not sufficient the lower and upper bounds must not exceed the thresholds which are decreasing functions of minimum consumption the result is useful for empirical studies of the redistribution of wealth and consumption

what do we know about carbon taxes an inquiry into their impacts on competitiveness and distribution of income abstract the kyoto protocol to the united nations framework convention on climate change unfccc has set legally binding emissions targets for a basket of six greenhouse gases and timetables for industrialised countries it has also incorporated three international flexibility mechanisms however the articles defining the flexibility mechanisms carry wording that their use must be supplemental to domestic actions this has led to the open debates on interpretations of these supplementarity provisions such debates ended at the resumed sixth conference of the parties cop to the unfccc held in bonn july 2001 and at the subsequent cop 7 in marrakesh november 2001 the final wording in the bonn agreement reaffirmed in the marrakesh accords at least indicates that domestic policies will have an important role to play in meeting annex b countries emissions commitments carbon taxes have long been advocated because of their cost effectiveness in achieving a given emissions reduction in this paper the main economic impacts of carbon taxes are assessed based on a review of empirical studies on existing carbon energy taxes it is concluded that competitive losses and distributive impacts are generally not significant and definitely less than often perceived however given the ultimate objective of the framework convention future carbon taxes could have higher rates than those already imposed and thus the resulting economic impacts could be more acute in this context it has been shown that how to use the generated fiscal revenues will be of fundamental importance in determining the final economic impacts of carbon taxes finally we briefly discuss carbon taxes in combination with other domestic and international instruments

rates of time preference for saving lives an important characteristic of many environmental programs is that their benefits extend far into the future the primary purpose of cleanups at hazardous waste disposal sites for example is often to prevent the contamination of groundwater that could pose risks to future residents at these sites such cleanups typically involve considerable capital and other costs which are incurred at the front end of the project and yield a stream of health benefits often in the form of cancer cases avoided that may not be recognized for many years this would not pose unusual problems for program evaluation if everyone were comfortable with the assignment of dollar values to these reductions in future risk see cropper and portney 1990 however regulatory agencies are sometimes reluctant to make such monetary valuations preferring instead to evaluate programs on a cost per life saved cpls basis office of management and budget 1991 this raises an interesting question should lives saved in the future be discounted for the purpose of calculating cpls or should they be counted the same as those saved tomorrow to shed light on this over the last year we have asked members of the public hypothetical questions that enable us to infer the rate at which they implicitly discount future lives saved john k horowitz and richard t carson 1990 asked similar questions of students in the remainder of this paper we summarize the results of this research details of which can be found elsewhere cropper et al 1991 1992

toward a new conception of the environment competitiveness relationship accepting a fixed trade off between environmental regulation and competitiveness unnecessarily raises costs and slows down environmental progress studies finding high environmental compliance costs have traditionally focused on static cost impacts ignoring any offsetting productivity benefits from innovation they typically overestimated compliance costs neglected innovation offsets and disregarded the affected industry s initial competitiveness rather than simply adding to cost properly crafted environmental standards can trigger innovation offsets allowing companies to improve their resource productivity shifting the debate from pollution control to pollution prevention was a step forward it is now necessary to make the next step and focus on resource productivity

optimal control of externalities in the presence of income taxation a substantial literature examines second best environmental policy focusing particularly on how the pigouvian directive that marginal taxes should equal marginal external harms needs to be modified in light of the preexisting distortion due to labor income taxation additional literature is motivated by the possibility that distributive concerns should amend the internalization prescription it is demonstrated however that simple first best rules unmodified for labor supply distortion or distribution are correct in a natural basic formulation of the problem specifically setting all commodity taxes equal to marginal harms and subsidies equal to marginal benefits can generate a pareto improvement likewise a marginal reform in the direction of the first best can yield a pareto improvement qualifications and explanations for differences from previous work are also presented

externalities and optimal taxation this paper reexamines the optimal tax design problem income and commodities in the presence of externalities the nature of the second best and the choice of the tax instruments are motivated by the informational structure in the economy the main results are i environmental levies linear or nonlinear differ in formula from pigouvian taxes by the expressions for the optimal tax on private goods ii externalities do not affect commodity tax formulas linear and nonlinear for private goods iii externalities do not affect the income tax structure if commodity taxes are nonlinear and affect it if commodity taxes are linear and iv a general income tax plus strictly pigouvian taxes are sufficient for efficient taxation if individuals of different types have identical marginal rates of substitution at any given consumption bundle

who emits most associations between socio economic factors and uk households home energy transport indirect and total co2 emissions abstract does the association between household characteristics and household co2 emissions differ for areas such as home energy transport and indirect emissions this question is policy relevant because distributional implications of mitigation policies may vary depending on the area of emissions that is targeted if specific types of households are likely to have higher emissions in some areas than in others so far this issue has not been examined in depth in the literature on household co2 emissions using a representative uk expenditure survey this paper compares how household characteristics like income household size education gender worklessness and rural or urban location differ in their association with all three areas as well as total emissions we find that these associations vary considerably across emission domains in particular whilst all types of emissions rise with income low income workless and elderly households are more likely to have high emissions from home energy than from other domains suggesting that they may be less affected by carbon taxes on transport or total emissions this demonstrates that fairness implications related to mitigation policies need to be examined for separate emission domains

accounting for global warming risks resource management under event uncertainty abstract optimal management of atmospheric pollution is discussed with a special emphasis on the uncertainty concerning the occurrence of undesirable events associated with the greenhouse effect the uncertainty considered here stems from our ignorance of the exact pollution level required to trigger the event rather than from the genuinely stochastic nature of the processes involved taking atmospheric pollution level as the state variable it is found that uncertainty implies the existence of an equilibrium interval within which the emission rate of the greenhouse gases should be kept equal to the natural removal rate of these gases processes initiated outside the equilibrium interval must converge monotonically to its nearest endpoint the determination of the interval requires no knowledge of the optimal policy in contrast ignoring event occurrence risk implies a single equilibrium level attracting the optimal process from any initial level

a future for carbon taxes abstract carbon taxes have been frequently advocated as a cost effective instrument for reducing emissions however in the practice of environmental policies only six countries have implemented taxes based on the carbon content of the energy products in this paper we evaluate carbon taxes with regard to their competitiveness distributional and environmental impacts the evidence shows that carbon taxes may be an interesting policy option and that their main negative impacts may be compensated through the design of the tax and the use of the generated fiscal revenues

optimal control of externalities in the presence of income taxation optimal control of externalities a substantial literature examines second best environmental policy focusing particularly on how the pigouvian directive that marginal taxes should equal marginal external harms needs to be modified in light of the preexisting distortion due to labor income taxation additional literature is motivated by the possibility that distributive concerns should amend the internalization prescription it is demonstrated however that simple first best rules unmodified for labor supply distortion or distribution are correct in a natural basic formulation of the problem specifically setting all commodity taxes equal to marginal harms and subsidies equal to marginal benefits can generate a pareto improvement likewise a marginal reform in the direction of the first best can yield a pareto improvement for other reforms a simple efficiency test characterizing when a pareto improvement is possible is offered qualifications and explanations for the substantial departure from results in previous work are also elaborated

prices versus quantities with incomplete enforcement abstract i study whether incomplete enforcement of a regulation has any impact on the choice between price e g taxes and quantity e g tradeable quotas instruments results indicate that a second best design accounting for incomplete enforcement can be implemented equally well with either instrument as long as the benefit and cost curves are known with certainty if these curves are uncertain to the regulator however the quantity instrument performs relatively better than the price instrument the reason is that the effective amount of control under the quantity instrument is no longer fixed which makes this instrument come closer to a non linear instrument

on self interested preferences for burden sharing rules an econometric analysis for the costs of energy policy measures abstract this paper examines the acceptance of burden sharing rules that refer to the costs of the german energy transition which is one of the most challenging and disputed national climate and energy policy measures based on data from a comprehensive survey of more than 2200 citizens the empirical analysis reveals that the polluter pays rule has by far the highest support compared with the ability to pay rule and especially compared with the equal pay rule which is widely refused in the sample since the distribution of the costs of the german energy transition is largely in line with a polluter pays rule its strong support seems to contribute to the high acceptance of the energy transition at all the main result of our econometric analysis with multivariate binary and ordered probit models is that not only some attitudinal factors like environmental values and political identification but especially economic self interest is relevant since equivalent energy expenditures have a significantly negative effect on the support of the polluter pays rule and especially equivalent income has a significantly negative effect on the preference for the ability to pay rule these results suggest that the use of distributional arguments for the criticism of energy policy measures is not necessarily value driven on the basis of real perceptions of distributive justice but can also be strategically motivated to prevent and combat economically unfavorable measures together with the strong general support of the polluter pays rule these results suggest that a sharp reorientation of the german energy transition due to distributional arguments is not very useful

poverty and distributional effects of carbon pricing in low and middle income countries a global comparative analysis abstract even though concerns about adverse distributional implications for the poor are one of the most important political challenges for carbon pricing the existing literature reveals ambiguous results for this reason we assess the expected incidence of moderate carbon price increases for different income groups in 87 mostly low and middle income countries building on a consistent dataset and method we find that for countries with per capita incomes of below usd 15 000 per year at ppp adjusted 2011 usd carbon pricing has on average progressive distributional effects we also develop a novel decomposition technique to show that distributional outcomes are primarily determined by differences among income groups in consumption patterns of energy rather than of food goods or services we argue that an inverse u shape relationship between energy expenditure shares and income explains why carbon pricing tends to be regressive in countries with relatively higher income since these countries are likely to have more financial resources and institutional capacities to deal with distributional issues our findings suggest that mitigating climate change raising domestic revenue and reducing economic inequality are not mutually exclusive even in low and middle income countries

the distributional implications of a carbon tax in ireland we study the effects of carbon tax and revenue recycling across the income distribution in the republic of ireland in absolute terms a carbon tax of 20 tco2 would cost the poorest households less than 3 week and the richest households more than 4 week a carbon tax is regressive therefore however if the tax revenue is used to increase social benefits and tax credits households across the income distribution can be made better off without exhausting the total carbon tax revenue

modeling preference heterogeneity in stated choice data an analysis for public goods generated by agriculture stated choice models based on the random utility framework are becoming increasingly popular in the applied economics literature the need to account for respondents preference heterogeneity in such models has motivated researchers in agricultural environmental health and transport economics to apply random parameter logit and latent class models in most of the published literature these models incorporate heterogeneity in preferences through the systematic component of utility an alternative approach is to investigate heterogeneity through the random component of utility and covariance heterogeneity models are one means of doing this in this article we compare these alternative ways of incorporating preference heterogeneity in stated choice models and evaluate the sensitivity of estimated welfare measures to which approach is selected we find that a latent class approach fits our data best but all the models perform well in terms of out of sample predictions finally we discuss what criteria a researcher can use to decide which approach is most appropriate for a given data set

energy use and appliance ownership in ireland abstract this paper examines household energy use and appliance ownership in ireland logit regression analyses on a large micro dataset reveal how household characteristics can help explain the ownership of energy using appliances using ols regression models we explore the factors affecting residential energy demand conditional on appliance ownership results suggest that the methods of space and water heating employed by a household are even more important than electrical appliances in explaining domestic energy usage however the stock of appliances must be included in such models so that results will not be biased the methods employed in this paper can be easily adopted for studies of household energy use in other countries where household expenditure survey data are available

farmers long term investment decisions a study of sri lankan rubber smallholders planting and replanting of perennial crops confronts small farmers with a long term investment decision in this study we analyse the behaviour of rubber smallholders in sri lanka when faced with a replacement decision an intertemporal profit maximizing model maximizing discounted stream of expected future net revenues predicts behaviour of larger hired labour using farmers quite well the model can also be extended successfully to smaller family farms when a lower than market wage rate is imputed to family labour to better reflect opportunity cost of labour and risk considerations are incorporated in relatively simple fashion the difference between a cash investment and a labour investment is crucial for the poorer family farmers and an appropriate cash subsidy can play a vital role in inducing them to undertake long term investments

does school district and municipality border congruence matter research on zoning typically assumes that city planners aim to maximise housing prices with their land use decisions either explicitly for public choice reasons or implicitly through the approval of land uses that create local net benefits noncongruence of school district and municipality borders severs the link between costs and benefits in the eyes of the median voter however which could result in excessive residential development and fiscal externalities that lower property values this paper uses a hedonic approach to indirectly observe the presence of these externalities border congruency between school districts and municipalities in ohio is measured using gis data and matched with a data set of 56 717 home sales the hedonic results indicate that noncongruence is associated with lower housing prices while the degree of noncongruence is positively related for most school districts the negative effect of noncongruency dominates my results are robust and consistent across different model spec

taxation of multiple greenhouse gases and the effects on income distribution a case study of the netherlands current economic instruments aimed at climate change mitigation focus on co2 emissions only but the kyoto protocol refers to other greenhouse gases ghg as well as co2 these are ch4 n2o hfcs pfcs and sf6 taxation of multiple greenhouse gases improves the cost effectiveness of climate change mitigation it is not yet clear however what the effect is of multigas taxation on the distribution of the tax burden across income groups this paper examines and compares distributional effects of a co2 tax and a comprehensive tax that covers all six ghg of the kyoto protocol the study concentrates on the netherlands in the year 2000 we established tax rates on the basis of marginal abatement cost curves and the dutch policy target the distributional effects have been determined by means of environmentally extended input output analysis and data on consumer expenditures our results show that taxation of multiple ghg improves not only the cost effectiveness of climate change mitigation but also distributes the tax burden more equally across income groups as compared to a co2 tax these findings are relevant for the debate on the role of non co2 ghg in climate change mitigation

carbon control policies competitiveness and border tax adjustments abstract several propositions have recently been made to use border tax adjustments btas to address the loss of competitiveness induced by unilateral stringent domestic pollution control policies this paper explores in a general equilibrium framework the sectoral and welfare implications of a unilateral domestic ghg control policy combined with a bta scheme using the canadian economy as an illustration we assess the extent to which btas achieve their objectives and analyze the impacts of different methods of recycling the bta proceeds to support domestic industries our simulation results suggest that imposing btas on the imports of non fossil and energy intensive products reduces or removes completely the negative competitiveness impacts that domestic industries suffer from the use of the proceeds of the btas to support domestic energy intensive industries improves their competitiveness and more importantly in some cases overprotects them as it allows them to even increase their output in comparison to the benchmark without emissions control our results also shed light on the existence of heterogeneity in the composition of energy intensive industries as far as the recycling method of the bta proceeds is concerned energy intensive industries that are more oriented toward the domestic market are better off with the recycling of the bta proceeds towards gross output than towards exports alone finally abstracting from the environmental benefits of reduced emissions we find that a bta entails a higher welfare cost to households

a regional dynamic general equilibrium model of alternative climate change strategies outcomes and noncooperative equilibria this study finds that cooperative policies show much higher levels of emissions reductions than do noncooperative strategies that there are substantial differences in the levels of controls in both the cooperative and the noncooperative policies among different countries and that high income countries may be the major losers from cooperation jel h41 q4 q2 q20

changes in the distribution of house prices over time structural characteristics neighborhood or coefficients quantile hedonic house price function estimates imply that appreciation rates were higher between 1995 and 2005 for high priced homes in chicago decompositions of temporal changes in the house price distribution suggest that the types of homes sold and their location do not account for the change in the price distribution rather higher appreciation rates for high priced homes are explained by differences in the quantile regression coefficients over time

motor fuel prices in turkey the world s most expensive motor fuel gasoline diesel and lpg is sold most likely in the republic of turkey this paper investigates the key issues related to the motor fuel prices in turkey first of all the paper analyses the main reason behind high prices namely motor fuel taxes in turkey then it estimates the elasticity of motor fuel demand in turkey using an econometric analysis the findings indicate that motor fuel demand in turkey is quite inelastic and therefore not responsive to price increases caused by an increase in either pre tax prices or taxes therefore fuel market in turkey is open to opportunistic behaviour by firms through excessive profits and the government through excessive taxes besides the paper focuses on the impact of high motor fuel prices on road transport associated activities including the pattern of passenger transportation motorization rate fuel use total kilometers travelled and co2 emissions from road transportation the impact of motor fuel prices on income distribution in turkey and turkish public opinion about high motor fuel prices are also among the subjects investigated in the course of the study

from regressive pollution taxes to progressive environmental tax reforms european countries have increased their use of environmental tax instruments by designing new tax bases but many countries face opposition from public opinion for fear of the distributive consequences of these environmental tax reforms this paper sheds light on the distributive consequences of environmental tax policies when households are heterogeneous the objective is to assess whether an environmental tax reform could be pareto improving when the revenue of the pollution tax is recycled by a change in labor tax properties we show that whatever the degree of regressivity of the environmental tax alone it is possible to design a recycling mechanism that renders the tax reform more pareto efficient by simultaneously decreasing the wage tax and increasing its progressivity

redistribution and pollution taxes with non linear engel curves abstract this paper analyses optimal corrective taxation and optimal income redistribution the pigouvian pollution tax is higher if pollution damages disproportionally hurt the poor due to equity weighting of pollution damages moreover under general utility functions optimal pollution taxes should be set below the pigouvian tax if the poor spend a disproportionate fraction of their income on polluting goods however if engel curves are linear optimal pollution taxes should follow the first best rule for the pigouvian corrective tax even if the government wants to redistribute income and the poor spend a disproportional part of their income on polluting goods the often used quasi linear ces and stone geary utility functions all have linear engel curves if engel curves are linear and if pollution taxes are not optimised pareto improving green tax reforms exist that move the pollution tax closer to the pigouvian tax simulations demonstrate that optimal corrective taxes should be pigouvian if the demand for polluting goods is derived from a les demand system but deviate from the pigouvian taxes if demand for polluting goods demand is derived from a piglog demand system

social and political responses to ecological tax reform in europe an introduction to the special issue this paper introduces the special issue on the policies for ecological tax reform assessment of social responses petras project about responses to ecological tax reform etr in europe although etr is widely accepted to be a policy with desirable effects its implementation has been limited by problems of political acceptability the project aimed to address the question of how to make such a policy more acceptable it is the first study to examine in depth the thinking of members of the general public about the etr policies and is also the first international comparative study of the thinking of ordinary business people about etr policies the petras project methodology was based around the use of interviews and focus groups to inform the assessment of social responses to etr policies and the development of improved designs for them a number of issues emerged relating to awareness trust understanding of the purpose visibility incentives regressivity levels of taxation terminology communication about etr and the use of alternative instruments together with these similarities a pattern of differences between the countries can also be seen the final section of this paper introduces the national studies described in the following papers

rethinking inequality decomposition with evidence from rural china we examine inequality decompositions by income source and describe a general regression based approach for decomposing inequality the approach provides an efficient and flexible way to quantify the roles of variables like education and age in a multivariate context we illustrate the method using survey data from china the empirical results demonstrate how sharply different conclusions can emerge for different decomposition rules we explain how these differences reflect the treatment of equally distributed sources of income and we discuss implications for how results from inequality decomposition are interpreted a renewed interest in economic growth political economy and the distribution of income has again placed the economics of income inequality firmly on the academic research agenda relatively poor performances in latin america have been contrasted with success stories in east asia and recent evidence on the changing income distributions of emerging economic giants like china has

carbon tax simulations using a household demand model abstract the main objective of this paper is to analyse consumer response and welfare effects due to changes in energy or environmental policy to achieve this objective we formulate and estimate an econometric model for non durable consumer demand in sweden that utilises micro and macro data in the simulations we consider two revenue neutral scenarios that both imply a doubling of the co2 tax one that returns the revenues in the form of a lower vat and one that subsidise public transport one conclusion from the simulations is that the co2 tax has regional distribution effects in the sense that household living in sparsely populated areas carry a larger share of the tax burden

the relevance of attitudinal factors for the acceptance of energy policy measures a micro econometric analysis abstract this paper empirically examines the individual support of the german energy transition in total and especially of six single energy policy measures which are components of the energy transition our micro econometric analysis with binary and ordered probit models on the basis of data from a broad survey of citizens reveals the important role of several attitudinal factors with respect to our indicators for perceived personal costs of the energy transition the estimation results point to a weak evidence for economic self interest due to some negative correlations between expected energy price increases due to the energy transition and the support of single energy policy measures interestingly however the concern that the energy transition alone causes strong energy price increases is not shared by the majority of the respondents the estimation results also suggest that the support of several energy policy measures is strongly correlated with environmental values however the most important attitudinal factor is obviously political identification the econometric analysis suggests that an overall left green policy identification is positively correlated with the support of the energy transition in total and an identification with ecological policy is positively correlated with the acceptance of several single energy policy measures the econometric analysis especially supports the more sophisticated categorization of political orientation since for example a liberal conservative policy orientation is not significantly correlated with the support of the energy transition in total

a conjoint analysis of corporate preferences for the sectoral crediting mechanism a case study of shanxi province in china it is crucial to understand corporate preferences in designing and planning new market based instruments using the method of conjoint analysis this paper evaluates corporate preferences for policy alternatives of the sectoral crediting mechanism aiming at supporting its discussions and development data were collected from 94 companies in all 11 prefecture level cities of shanxi province china the results confirm that companies are most concerned about three policy attributes domestic policy instruments the relationship with the clean developing mechanism and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities from the viewpoint of the chinese businesses surveyed the ideal policy alternative has a domestic policy instrument in which installations with voluntary targets receive tradable units while co existing with the clean developing mechanism and providing opportunities to get financial and technical assistance from developed countries meanwhile the coverage of the sectoral crediting mechanism could be expanded to small companies that are the most inefficient and thus have the lowest abatement costs in some sectors the results of this study are important in light of ongoing discussions and developments of the sectoral crediting mechanism in china

the implications for households of environmental tax reform etr in europe abstract the paper discusses the distributional implications of environmental tax reform etr for households and presents new results from modelling the impacts of a major etr for the european union the distributional effects arise from the new environmental taxes any tax reductions made as part of the etr the wider macroeconomic impacts from the etr any special provisions in the etr and the environmental benefits from the etr the paper s literature review makes clear that while the impacts from taxes on the household use of energy are very often regressive transport taxes tend not to be although the impacts differ between urban and rural households moreover the net distributional impact is often less regressive or not at all once the wider distributional effects are taken into account residual regressive effects can in principle be removed by further adjustments in the tax or benefits system the modelling results suggest that an etr in europe will actually increase real incomes across the eu as a whole and will not be generally regressive although the results differ by country and for different socio economic groups the political acceptability of etr may depend on the worst effects on these groups being mitigated in some way

co2 taxes equity and the double dividend macroeconomic model simulations for austria abstract this paper investigates the impacts of co2 tax schemes on co2 emissions equity and macroeconomic indicators in austria with the macroeconomic model dynk aut our scenarios focus on non ets co2 emissions and comprise different tax rates and revenue recycling options lower labor taxes lower vat and lump sum payments the short term comparative scenario analysis indicates that co2 taxes without recycling lead to significant co2 emission reductions at moderate economic costs equity impacts on households depend on the indicator used but can be regressive without recycling most recycling schemes can achieve a double dividend i e emission reductions and increases in gdp lump sum payments are less efficient than reducing the vat or labor taxes equity impacts are progressive with lump sum payments rather proportional with lower vat and regressive with lower labor taxes a combination of recycling schemes and or a restriction of lump sum payments to lower income households can minimize the trade off between equity and efficiency our simulations suggest that well designed co2 tax schemes could be a crucial and socially acceptable element within a comprehensive policy package to achieve ghg emission targets for non ets sectors in austria

subdivision vintage and housing prices do home buyers value traditional development new urbanism and traditional neighbourhood development tnd have been championed as solutions to the problems associated with post war suburban sprawl however they have yet to capture a substantial share of the us housing market the market context for tnd is not well understood as the paucity of tnd makes it difficult to study directly this paper takes a novel approach by focusing on the market for traditional development itself defined as subdivisions recorded prior to world war ii in the sprawling tucson arizona msa the results of the hedonic analysis demonstrate that home buyers value the features embodied in traditional development as homes in subdivisions platted before 1940 command premiums over those in their modern counterparts even after carefully controlling for locational and structural characteristics moreover the analysis finds that the premiums have increased through time which suggests growing demand for traditionally designed subdivisions

distributional impacts of carbon pricing a general equilibrium approach with micro data for households article i nfo many policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions have at their core efforts to put a price on carbon emissions carbon pricing impacts households both by raising the cost of carbon intensive products and by changing factor prices a complete analysis requires taking both effects into account the impact of carbon pricing is determined by heterogeneity in household spending patterns across income groups as well as heterogeneity in factor income patterns across income groups it is also affected by precise formulation of the policy how is the revenue from carbon pricing distributed as well as the treatment of other government policies e g the treatment of transfer payments what is often neglected in analyses of policy is the heterogeneity of impacts across households even within income or regional groups in this paper we incorporate 15 588 households from the u s consumer and expenditure survey data as individual agents in a comparative static general equilibrium framework these households are represented within the mit usrep model a detailed general equilibrium model of the u s economy in particular we categorize households by full household income factor income as well as transfer income and apply various measures of lifetime income to distinguish households that are temporarily low income e g retired households drawing down their financial assets from permanently low income households we also provide detailed within group distributional measures of burden impacts from various policy scenarios

on international equity weights and national decision making on climate change abstract estimates of the marginal damage costs of carbon dioxide emissions require the aggregation of monetised impacts of climate change over people with different incomes and in different jurisdictions implicitly or explicitly such estimates assume a social welfare function and hence a particular attitude towards equity and justice we show that previous approaches to equity weighting are inappropriate from a national decision maker s point of view because domestic impacts are not valued at domestic values we propose four alternatives sovereignty altruism good neighbour and compensation with different views on concern for and liability towards foreigners the four alternatives imply radically different estimates of the social cost of carbon and hence the optimal intensity of climate policy

are co2 taxes regressive evidence from the danish experience abstract denmark today carries one of the heaviest environmental tax burdens in the world bringing in around 10 of public revenues while evaluations have shown that the danish co 2 and other environmental taxes work as an effective measure to reduce emissions a considerable barrier to increased use of these instruments today seems to be a widespread perception of their socially adverse effects in this article it is demonstrated that co 2 taxes imposed on energy consumption in households as well as in industry do in fact tend to be regressive and therefore have undesirable distributional effects this holds especially for taxes imposed directly on households to analyze this we apply national consumer survey statistics in combination with input output tables

can carbon taxes be progressive abstract most studies have assessed the distributional impact of carbon taxes through their effects on commodity prices alone while ignoring their impact on individual welfare brought about by changes in factor prices yet the remunerations of capital and labor are not affected by these taxes similarly and their shares in earned incomes are not uniform across households this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the incidence of carbon taxes on inequality by considering simultaneously the commodity and the income channels we propose a decomposition of the change in individual welfare metrics then we develop a general equilibrium model to assess the impact of carbon taxes on factor and commodity prices and subsequently their distributional impact on households using the lorenz and concentration curves and the gini index our results suggest that changes in factor prices and changes in commodity prices especially those of energy commodities have opposing effects on inequality carbon taxes tend to reduce inequality through the changes in factor prices and tend to increase inequality through the changes in commodity prices hence we find a non monotonic u shaped relationship between carbon taxes and inequality our results suggest that the traditional approach of assessing the impact of carbon taxes on inequality through changes in commodity prices alone may be misleading the findings cast light on the desirability of using both channels in the assessment of carbon taxes on inequality

how wrong can you be implications of incorrect utility function specification for welfare measurement in choice experiments despite the vital role of the utility function in welfare measurement the implications of working with incorrect utility specifications have been largely neglected in the choice experiments literature this paper addresses the importance of specification with a special emphasis on the effects of mistaken assumptions about the marginal utility of income monte carlo experiments were conducted using different functional forms of utility to generate simulated choices multi nomial logit and mixed logit models were then estimated on these choices under correct and incorrect assumptions about the true underlying utility function estimated willingness to pay measures from these choice modeling results are then compared with the equivalent measures directly calculated from the true utility specifications results show that for the parameter values and functional forms considered a continuous quadratic or a discrete linear attribute specification is a good option regardless of the true effects the attribute has on utility we also find that mistaken assumptions about preferences over costs magnify attribute mis specification effects

the damage costs of climate change toward more comprehensive calculations it is argued that estimating the damage costs of a certain benchmark climate change is not sufficient what is needed are cost functions and confidence intervals although these are contained in the integrated models and their technical manuals this paper brings them into the open in order to stimulate discussion after briefly reviewing the benchmark climate change damage costs region specific cost functions are presented which distinguish tangible from intangible losses and the losses due to a changing climate from those due to a changed climate furthermore cost functions are assumed to be quadratic as an approximation of the unknown but presumably convex functions results from the damage module of the integrated climate economy model fund are presented next uncertainties are incorporated and expected damages are calculated it is shown that because of convex loss functions and right skewed uncertain ties the risk premium is substantial calling for more action than analysis based on best guess estimates the final section explores some needs for further scientific research

design and analysis of simulated consumer choice or allocation experiments an approach based on aggregate data the authors integrate concepts in conjoint analysis and discrete choice theory in econometrics to develop a new approach to the design and analysis of controlled consumer choice or resource allocat

tax distortions and global climate policy abstract we consider the efficiency implications of policies to reduce global carbon emissions in a world with pre existing tax distortions we first note that the weak double dividend the proposition that the welfare improvement from a tax reform where environmental taxes are used to lower distorting taxes must be greater than the welfare improvement from a reform where the environmental taxes are returned in a lump sum fashion need not hold in a world with multiple distortions we then present a large scale computable general equilibrium model of the world economy with distortionary taxation we use this model to evaluate a number of policies to reduce carbon emissions we find that the weak double dividend is not obtained in a number of european countries results also demonstrate the point that the interplay between carbon policies and pre existing taxes can differ markedly across countries thus one must be cautious in extrapolating the results from a country specific analysis to other countries

new urbanism and housing values a disaggregate assessment in this paper we attempt a formal analysis of the virtues of new urbanism a movement hailed as the most significant movement in urban planning and architecture in this century we proceed using the tools of geographic information systems gis to develop quantitative measures of urban form we then incorporate those measures in a hedonic price analysis we find that our measures of urban form capture meaningful differences in the characters of urban neighborhoods that could well have direct impacts on the utility of urban residents further we find that such differences are capitalized into residential property values the results imply that some but not all of the design features of new urbanism provide benefits for which urban residents are willing to pay

the rationale of the mean standard deviation analysis skewness preference and the demand for money publisher summary this chapter discusses the rationale of the mean standard deviation analysis skewness preference and the demand for money in january 1969 issue of the review of economic studies karl borch and martin feldstein separately criticized the widely used mean variance analysis of portfolio selection borch contended that any system of upward sloping mean standard deviation e s indifference curves can be shown to be inconsistent with the basic axiom of choice under uncertainty he pointed out that one can always pick any two points on an upward sloping indifference curve to represent two bernoulli distributions with probability 1 p of gaining the same amount x in both the cases and probability p of gaining y1 in the case of one distribution and y2 in the case of the second distribution with y2 y1 if the second distribution represents the point to the northeast of the other point then by the dominance axiom the second distribution must be preferred to the first which contradicts the basic meaning of indifference curves feldstein by using a log utility function and a lognormal distribution for investment outcome showed that e s indifference curves for a risk averter need not be convex downwards though upward sloping they would change from convex to concave once the standard deviation of the outcome exceeds the mean multiplied by on the face of it this seems to suggest that risk aversion might decrease as risk is increased beyond a certain extent

discounting and distributional considerations in the context of global warming the economics of global warming is reviewed with special emphasis on how the cost depends on the discount rate and on how costs in poor and rich regions are aggregated into a global cost estimate both of these factors depend on the assumptions made concerning the underlying utility and welfare functions it is common to aggregate welfare gains and losses across generations and countries as if the utility of money were constant but it is not if we assume that a e co2 equivalent dlubling implies costs equal to 1 5 of the income in both high and low income countries a pure rate of time preference equal to zero and a utility function which is logarithmic in income then the marginal cost of co2 emissions is estimated at 260 590 usd ton c for a time horizon in the range 300 1000 years an estimate which is large enough to justify significant reductions of co2 emissions on purely economic grounds the estimate is approximately 50 100 times larger than the estimate made by nordhaus in his dice model and the difference is almost completely due to the choice of discount rate and the weight given to the costs in the developing world as well as a more accurate model of the carbon cycle finally the sensitivity of the marginal cost estimate with respect to several parameters is analyzed

monetary valuation of the social cost of co2 emissions a critical survey an expanding branch of research has estimated the potential costs of climate change which are often expressed as the social cost of carbon scc or the costs of an additional ton of co2 emissions estimates of the scc can be used by policy makers to evaluate climate change policies and greenhouse gas emission reduction projects by means of cost benefit analyses cbas such analyses are complicated by the wide range of scc values that have been reported in the literature and the large uncertainties involved in estimating the potential economic impacts and related costs of climate change this study presents a critical review of the reported scc estimates by examining some neglected consequences of climate change uncertain and extreme scenarios of climate change the discounting of future climate change effects the treatment of individual risk aversion and assumptions about social welfare in view of the many uncertainties and omissions in conventional cost benefit analyses of climate impacts and the scc alternative approaches to decision making should be considered for climate policy

empirical and public choice evidence for hyperbolic social discount rates and the implications for intergenerational discounting the derivation of the correct discount rate for intergenerational projects in cost benefit analysis is particularly contentious public choice has resulted in lower discretionary exponential discount rates for many intergenerational projects in britain and the usa this is shown to be strong indirect evidence that the true social discount rate may be a hyperbolic rather than an exponential function there is also empirical evidence for this hypothesis the hyperbolic nature of discounting is also a standard finding in the behavioural sciences for intergenerational time frames hyperbolic discount rates should be employed together with exponential discount rates in cost benefit sensitivity analyses

paying for mitigation a multiple country study a contingent valuation study conducted in china sweden and the united states was used to investigate citizens willingness to pay wtp for reducing co2 emissions we find that a majority of the respondents in all three countries believe that the mean global temperature has increased over the last 100 years and that humans are responsible for the increase the share of americans that believes these statements is smaller and a relatively larger share of americans also believes that nothing can be done to stop climate change sweden has the highest wtp while china has the lowest jel q51 q54

marginal abatement costs of greenhouse gas emissions a meta analysis in this paper we carry out a meta analysis of recent studies into the costs of greenhouse gas mitigation policies that aim at the long term stabilisation of these gases in the atmosphere we find the cost estimates of the studies to be sensitive to the stringency of the stabilisation target the assumed emissions baseline the way in which the time profile of emissions is determined in the model the choice of control variable co2 only versus multigas the number of regions and energy sources in the model and to a lesser degree the scientific forum in which the study was developed we find that marginal abatement costs of the stringent long term targets that are currently considered by the european commission are still very uncertain but might exceed the costs that have been suggested by recent policy assessments

public acceptability of personal carbon trading and carbon tax abstract climate change is one of the greatest challenges confronting the international community requiring action to achieve deep cuts in carbon emissions the implementation of potentially uncomfortable but necessary policy measures is though critically dependent upon public acceptability this paper reports a novel application of stated preference techniques to explore the influence of key design attributes on the acceptability of a personal carbon trading scheme in isolation and when compared to a carbon tax illustrative forecasts from the models developed indicate the importance of design attributes especially the basis of the initial permit allocation for personal carbon trading and the use to which revenues are put for carbon tax results indicate that the best scheme designs could be acceptable to a majority of respondents

comprehensive effectiveness assessment of renewable energy generation policy a partial equilibrium analysis in china abstract in order to stimulate renewable energy and control carbon dioxide emissions the chinese government has already introduced lots of renewable energy generation policies under this background it is of great significant to figure out the economic environmental and social effectiveness of these polices firstly this paper systematically studied the framework and content of renewable energy generation policies secondly this paper built a basic partial equilibrium model to calculate the equilibrium state of electricity market and carbon emissions on this base the effectiveness of seven renewable energy generation policies was analyzed by introducing policies into the basic model and comparing relevant indicators in different policy scenarios with that in basic scenario further an empirical analysis was made to estimate the actual benefits of these policies in china this paper proposed an analysis method for evaluating the mechanism effectiveness and efficiency of renewable energy generation policies all the results and discussions in this paper can provide specific suggestions for chinese government to shape a blueprint for implementing different kinds of policies

public preferences for carbon tax attributes the impacts of climate change are already visible throughout the world recognizing the threats posed by climate change the durban platform the 17th session of the conference of parties cop 17 underscores that the global nature of climate change calls for the widest possible cooperation and ambitious action by all countries a crucial starting point for the design of effective and publicly acceptable policies is to explore public preferences for climate policy instruments using a choice experiment this study investigates public preferences for carbon tax attributes in a developing country context the results account for heterogeneity in preferences and show that turkish people prefer a carbon tax with a progressive cost distribution rather than one with a regressive cost distribution the private cost has a negative effect on the probability of choosing the tax earmarking carbon tax revenues increases the public acceptability of the tax moreover there is a preference for a carbon tax that promotes public awareness of climate change

targets for global climate policy an overview a survey of the economic impact of climate change and the marginal damage costs shows that carbon dioxide emissions are a negative externality the estimated pigou tax and its growth rate are too low to justify the climate policy targets set by political leaders a lower discount rate or greater concern for the global distribution of income would justify more stringent climate policy but would imply an overhaul of other public policies catastrophic risk justifies more stringent climate policy but only to a limited extent

does improved environmental quality prevent a growing economy abstract a major concern for sustainable development is how countries can lower pollution while avoiding adverse output and energy shocks since economic activities change with time we develop a dynamic applied equilibrium model to study the dynamics of co2 emissions and evaluate how the pursuit of environmental policy objectives can influence output and productivity in a surrogate country in transition under an optimal environmental policy which ensures mitigation between 38 and 50 we show that productivity projected towards the year 2075 increases slightly from between 3 8 and 6 2 to between 5 7 and 7 6 respectively the required carbon tax begins from 5 29 ton in 2020 and grows on average by 3 5 reaching up to 35 83 per ton carbon towards the year 2075 even though these tax rates ensure huge benefits for mitigation they represent marginal productivity growth and substantial output and consumption costs in other words improved environmental quality presents opportunities for multifactor productivity mfp but this productivity improvement is too marginal to offset the compliance costs of the carbon tax thereby causing output to decline hence to ensure maximum economic dividend from carbon pricing especially in transitional economies measures are required to improve the innovation benefits of carbon taxes towards levels that offset the compliance costs of environmental regulations otherwise caution should be taken by developing countries in their environmental policy designs especially when boosting consumption and economic growth is a major priority

the demand for earmarking results from a focus group study abstract environmental taxes might be efficient but plans to impose new taxes are often met with fierce public resistance in order to design environmental taxes that are both efficient and acceptable to the public so that they can be politically feasible it is important to understand public attitudes towards environmental taxes we conduct a focus group study in norway to extend the current knowledge on this issue we find less general resistance to taxation as a policy instrument and seemingly more trust in government than what has been reported in similar studies from other countries the participants are however very skeptical and do not see the point of using the revenues from an environmental tax to reduce other taxes such as the payroll tax instead they express a very strong preference for earmarking the revenues for environmental purposes they also call for more information about environmental taxes in particular on how the revenues are spent providing more information including what the revenues are spent on irrespective of whether they are earmarked or not would seem to provide a relatively cheap and possibly effective way to increase the public acceptability of new or increased environmental taxes

bayesian learning growth and pollution abstract environmental problems such as climate change have great uncertainties current expectations are that uncertainties about climate change will be resolved quickly we examine this hypothesis theoretically and computationally we consider bayesian learning about the relationship between greenhouse gas levels and global mean temperature changes a key uncertainty learning is non trivial because of a stochastic shock to the realized temperature we find theoretically the expected learning time which is related to the variance of the shock and the emissions policy implying a tradeoff between the benefits of controlling emissions and information we imbed the learning model into an optimal growth model with a climate sector and solve the resulting dynamic program we find computationally that learning takes on average over 90 yr far longer than currently believed

recreation demand models with taste differences over people we estimate random parameter logit models of anglers choice of fishing site the models generalize logit by allowing coefficients to vary randomly over anglers rather than being fixed the models do not exhibit the restrictive independence from irrelevant alternatives property of logit and can represent any substitution pattern estimation explicitly accounts for the fact that the variation in coefficients over anglers induces correlation in unobserved utility over trips by the same angler willingness to pay for improved fish stock and the value to anglers of specific sites are calculated from the models and compared with the estimates obtained from a standard logit model

citizens preferences on nuclear and renewable energy sources evidence from turkey abstract based on data from a face to face survey of 2422 residents from urban turkey this paper presents an analysis of citizens preferences in turkey on nuclear and renewable energy sources findings indicate that opposition to nuclear power was strong and only a small number of respondents endorsed it by listing it in their top two choices conversely almost two thirds of the sample endorsed investment in renewable energy sources such as wind and solar and only a small minority was opposed to it econometric analyses revealed that knowledge of the climate change problem was a common factor that explained endorsement of both nuclear and renewables yet high levels of concern for the environment and a negative perception regarding its future differentiated the endorsers of renewables from those of nuclear energy endorsers of nuclear energy were found to be males who were knowledgeable about climate change and engaged in environmental issues but less concerned about the environment and optimistic about its future nuclear opponents on the other hand were found to be concerned about the environment pessimistic about its future and not fully relying on technology