modeling and forecasting electricity prices with input output hidden markov models in competitive electricity markets in addition to the uncertainty of exogenous variables such as energy demand water inflows and availability of generation units and fuel costs participants are faced with the uncertainty of their competitors behavior the analysis of electricity price time series reflects a switching nature related to discrete changes in competitors strategies which can be represented by a set of dynamic models sequenced together by a markov chain an input output hidden markov model iohmm is proposed for analyzing and forecasting electricity spot prices the model provides both good predictions in terms of accuracy as well as dynamic information about the market in this way different market states are identified and characterized by their more relevant explanatory variables moreover a conditional probability transition matrix governs the probabilities of remaining in the same state or changing to another whenever a new market session is opened the model has been successfully applied to real clearing prices in the spanish electricity market

eco thermodynamics economics and the second law the laws of physics especially the first and second laws of thermodynamics have significant implications for economic theory the major implications of the first law conservation of mass energy are straightforward and have been discussed at length elsewhere in brief raw material inputs to economic processes are not consumed having been extracted from the environment in the first place they eventually return to the environment as wastes the economic implications of the second law entropy law are far more subtle there is considerable literature initiated by the work of georgescu roegen on the supposed constraints on economic growth imposed by the fact that economic processes utilize low entropy raw materials fossil fuels and high grade metal ores and discard high entropy wastes however as a practical matter the flux of available low entropy energy exergy from the sun is extremely large and certainly adequate to sustain economic activity in the solar system indefinitely even though fossil fuel and metal ore stocks may eventually be exhausted it is argued in this paper that the real economic significance of the second law lies in the fact that exergy is i not conserved and ii is a useful common measure of resource quality as well as quantity applicable to both materials and energy thus exergy can be used to measure and compare resource inputs and outputs including wastes and losses this is potentially important in itself moreover since exergy is not conserved it is truly consumed i e used up in economic processes hence exergy is no less a factor of production than labor or capital this fact has strong implications for economic growth theory especially with regard to assessing the role of technical progress

entropy and economic processes physics perspectives this paper is a contribution to the discussion on the relation between thermodynamics and economic theory with respect to thermodynamic constraints on the economy there are two diametrically opposite positions in this discussion one claims that the constraints are insignificant of no immediate practical importance for modelling and in the intermediate run do not limit economic activity and therefore need not be incorporated in the economic theory the other holds that thermodynamics tells us that there are practical limits to materials recycling which already puts bounds on the economy and therefore must be included in the economic models using the thermodynamic concept of entropy we show here that there are fundamental problems with both positions even in the long run entropy production associated with material dissipation need not be a limiting factor for economic development abundant energy resources from solar radiation may be used to recover dissipated elements with simple quantitative analysis we show that the rate of entropy production caused by human economic activities is very small compared to the continuous natural entropy production in the atmosphere and on the earth s surface further the societal entropy production is well within the range of natural variation it is possible to replace part of the natural entropy production with societal entropy production by making use of solar energy society consumes resources otherwise available for coming generations however future generations need not have less resources available to them than the present generation human industrial activities could be transformed into a sustainable system where the more abundant elements are industrially used and recycled using solar energy as the driving resource an economic theory fit to guide industrial society in that development must not disregard thermodynamics nor must it overstate the consequences of the laws of thermodynamics 2001 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

is the post fossil era necessarily post capitalistic the robustness and capabilities of green capitalism abstract our central target is to show that capitalism is not only much more robust to crises than presumed by its critics but also features promising capabilities with regard to solving the environmental crisis to elaborate this thesis we analyse how far capitalism can survive given the end of fossil energy carriers and may maintain its productivity under the preconditions of a regenerative energy system in a further step we demonstrate that crises may actually provide the prerequisites of the economy s transformation towards sustainability we argue that especially competitive capitalism as analysed by schumpeter offers excellent preconditions for generating environmental innovations however we will also point out the numerous social problems of green infrastructure projects in the last section we assume that markets alone will not suffice to concertedly solve the global environmental crisis here political action is needed that pools societal forces with regard to the ecological challenges hence specifically promoting desirable innovations the usefulness of state measures is to be judged in correlation to the respective specific national political and economic contexts a generalised opposition to capitalistic social orders disregards the complexity of these contexts and is at danger of omitting decisive determinants of crisis management

energy aesthetics and knowledge in complex economic systems it is argued that the fact that economic systems are dissipative structures must be taken fully into account in economics if we are to understand the nature of the economic ecological interface and how to deal with emergent environmental problems such as global warming such problems are a product of economic growth which is widely accepted to be the outcome of the acquisition and application of knowledge drawing upon disparate literatures within and outside economics it is argued that economic growth should be more properly viewed as the outcome of a co evolutionary process that involves the autocatalytic interaction of new knowledge and access of increasing amounts of free energy to do increasingly specialized forms of work specifically the relevance of the energy hypothesis associated with erwin schrodinger and more recently revived by eric schneider and his collaborators is assessed this hypothesis states that all dissipative structures have as their primary objective the reduction of accessible free energy gradients it is concluded that such a hypothesis cannot be rejected in the context of economic behaviour and that this opens up an important research agenda for economists

entropy limits to growth and the prospects for weak sustainability in this paper we analyze the consequences of mass and energy conservation and the second law of thermodynamics for economic activity in contrast to former studies we deduce our results formally from a general model of production and consumption we show that in a static setting for economies containing irreversible processes a non zero resource input as well as non zero emissions are necessary to sustain a positive level of consumption we generalize this result to a dynamic setting and apply it to the growth discussion and the sustainability discourse thereby we show that limits to growth of production and consumption are likely to exist and that the concept of weak sustainability is either morally unattractive or physically infeasible d 2005 elsevier b v all rights reserved

the effects of tax increment financing on economic development abstract local governments attempt to influence business location decisions and economic development through use of the property tax tax increment financing tif earmarks property tax revenues that result from growth in assessed valuation the tif revenues are to be used for economic development projects but may also be diverted for other purposes using data for the chicago metropolitan area that includes information on property value growth before and after tif adoption we find evidence that cities that adopt tif grow more slowly than those that do not we test for and reject sample selection bias as an explanation of this finding

from groundless universalism to grounded generalism improving ecological economic indicators of human environmental interaction abstract ecological economics occasionally makes universal claims about how to understand and measure change in systems of human environmental interaction in terms of environmental policy one of the most influential universal concepts that has come out of the ecological economics literature recently is ecological efficiency or eco efficiency this article uses eco efficiency as a vehicle to illustrate that universal indicators of human environmental interaction are theoretically unfounded and practically problematic population ecology and neo classical economics are identified as two theoretical approaches that have contributed to the emergence of universal concepts such as eco efficiency the limited applicability of the approaches is highlighted by putting them in comparative context with approaches that make less universal claims namely systems ecology and institutional economics investigating indicators of human environmental interaction from disciplinary perspectives that are rarely found in indicator literature offers novel insights on what indicators are for and how they should be applied the article concludes with a call for scale sensitive generalization in the development of future indicators

energy growth and evolution towards a naturalistic ontology of economics in recent years new approaches to the integration of economics and thermodynamics have been developed which build on the physics of open non equilibrium systems the so called maximum entropy production principle i review these contributions in the light of the implications for economic ontology i e the question what the fundamental constituents of real world economic phenomena are i argue in favor of the naturalization of economic ontology using the phenomenon of economic growth as my workhorse and i explore the implications for the cross disciplinary foundations of ecological economics the paper shows how economic growth can be conceived as a natural process that is driven by fundamental physical forces the argument proceeds in three steps after a short review of recent research on the linkage between energy and growth i establish the connection with bioeconomic theories about evolution that allow restating the role of lotka s maximum power principle mpp as a property of open non equilibrium flow systems with sufficient degrees of freedom of structural adaptation the mpp is then related to the recent literature on maximum entropy production mep especially as deployed in the earth sciences economic growth can be seen as resulting from evolutionary adaptations of flow gradients in economic systems that increase throughputs of exergy and generation of work and which thereby enhance the capacity of the earth system to maximize entropy production this framework offers fresh perspectives on a number of issues in research and policy which i discuss in the conclusion

a conceptual exergy based framework for assessing monitoring and designing a resource efficient agri food sector the sustainable development goals sdgs are a set of global goals targets and indicators set by the member states of the united nations and which are to be followed by governments the private sector and the civil society for the next 15 years here we present a framework in the form of a comprehensive step wise procedure that will expand the tools of policy makers to develop policies for the improvement of the resource use efficiency of the agri food sector ultimately these policies will contribute in achieving goal 12 of the sdgs ensure sustainable consumption and production patters while having an indirect impact on goal 2 end hunger achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture and on goal 13 take urgent action to combat climate change and its impact we illustrate the use of the framework on assessing the exergetic performance of a theoretical milk concentration process the framework can be used to apply exergy based indicators for pinpointing the hotspots in food production chains where the irreversible consumption of natural resources is substantial and for comparing the resource use efficiency of different system designs and configurations furthermore we list a number of other exergy based methodologies that are also of relevance in resource use efficiency assessment because they capture additional aspects such as economic performance which exergy analysis alone cannot address and with the potential of being integrated in this or a different framework finally we discuss potential policy related implications

thermodynamics and process analysis for future economic scenarios economists are increasingly interested in forecasting future costs and benefits of policies for dealing with materials energy fluxes polluting emissions and environmental impacts on various scales from sectoral to global computable general equilibrium cge models are currently popular because they project demand and industrial structure into the future along an equilibrium path but they are applicable only to the extent that structural changes occur in or near equilibrium independent of radical technological or social change the alternative tool for analyzing economic implications of scenario assumptions is to use leontief type input output i o models i o models are unable to endogenize structural shifts changing i o coefficients however this can be a virtue when considering radical rather than incremental shifts postulated i o tables can be used independently to check the internal consistency of scenarios or i o models can be used to generate scenarios by linking them to econometric macro drivers which can in principle be cge models explicit process analysis can be integrated in principle with i o models this hybrid scheme provides a natural means of satisfying physical constraints especially the first and second laws of thermodynamics this is important to avoid constructing scenarios based on physically impossible processes process analysis is really the only available tool for constructing physically plausible alternative future i o tables and generating materials energy and waste emissions coefficients explicit process analysis also helps avoid several problems characteristic of pure cge or i o models viz 1 aggregation errors 2 inability to handle arbitrary combinations of co product and co input relationships and 3 inability to reflect certain non linearities such as internal feedback loops

a novel approach for analyzing the effectiveness of the r d capital for resource conservation comparative study on germany and uk electricity sectors abstract limited access to energy resources and increasing demand for mitigation of the environmental impacts have necessitated higher production efficiencies therefore the promotion of r d activities has been one of the main parts of national energy policies in this research work two methods are used for assessing the effectiveness of the r d capital on resource conservation first by developing the resource included knowledge production function of the energy sector and second through direct assessment of the functionality of resource productivity from r d capital based on official data provided by national statistical centers a comparative analysis has been conducted to examine the effectiveness of r d in the electricity generation sectors in the united kingdom and germany in these analyses non renewable exergy cost is used as an index of resource depletion and environmental burden it is shown that due to non economic energy transition policies the inclusion of the r d investment does not result in statistically meaningful elasticity of production for the r d capital however according to the second method it is shown that the r d investment in the united kingdom has been more effective in resource conservation than in germany possible reasons for such differences are discussed and recommendations for further investigations are presented

the hotelling rule for entropy constrained economic growth abstract lozada gabriel a 1995 xxx ecological economics the entropy change of the solar system between now and its final heat death is fixed the time to the heat death is determined by the rate of entropy increase between now and then if this rate of entropy increase is itself increased by economic activity then economic activity is generating a negative externality by internalizing this a social planner treats the fixed amount of entropy change remaining until the heat death like the stock of an exhaustible resource this leads to an analysis along the same lines as hotelling s neoclassical economics of exhaustible resources forming a partial synthesis between neoclassical economics and nicholas georgescu roegen s ecological economics work on the entropy law

a new index for electricity spot markets abstract different indexes are used in electricity markets worldwide to represent the daily behavior of spot prices however the peculiarities of these markets require a careful choice of the index based on mathematical formulation and its statistical properties choosing a bad index may influence the financial policies of market players since derivative pricing and hedging performance can be deeply affected in this paper with an initial theoretical analysis we intend to show that the most widely used indexes simple arithmetic average and weighted average with current volumes are poor representatives of the spot market we will then perform an analysis of the hedging strategy on a derivative instrument an asian option written on a reference index the resulting simulations applied to omel spain and eex germany are sufficiently clear cut to suggest that the decision to adopt an index to represent properly a market must be taken very carefully finally we will propose a new index fast index and after comparing it with the previous indexes will show that both theoretically and practically this index can be taken as a good electricity market synthetic indicator

large redevelopment initiatives housing values and gentrification the case of the atlanta beltline this paper examines the announcement effects on property values of a large multipurpose development initiative in atlanta georgia called the beltline which has received substantial public attention the project involves the redevelopment of an abandoned rail line that encircles the central area of atlanta the 6500 acre project will be funded by tax increment financing bonds and will include the development of light rail greenspace and real estate projects by examining home sales from 2000 to 2006 the paper identifies changes in price premiums for locations in various geographical buffers around the beltline and compares the timing of such changes with coverage in the local newspaper it is found that there are large increases in premiums for homes near the lower income southside parts of the beltline tif district between 2003 and 2005 which corresponds to the initial media coverage of the planning process the findings suggest that planning for the beltline induced substantial speculation and ge

probabilistic lmp forecasting considering load uncertainty in power market studies the forecast of locational marginal price lmp relies on the load forecasting results from the viewpoint of planning it is well known that short term load forecasting results always carry certain degree of errors mainly due to the random nature of the load at the same time lmp step changes occur at critical load levels clls therefore it is interesting to investigate the impact of load forecasting uncertainty on lmp with the assumption of a certain probability distribution of the actual load this paper proposes the concept of probabilistic lmp and formulates the probability mass function of this random variable the expected value of probabilistic lmp is then derived as well as the lower and upper bound of its sensitivity in addition two useful curves alignment probability of deterministic lmp versus forecasted load and expected value of probabilistic lmp versus forecasted load are presented the first curve is designed to identify the probability that the forecasted price in a deterministic lmp matches the actual price at the forecasted load level the second curve is demonstrated to be smooth and therefore eliminates the step changes in deterministic lmp forecasting this helps planners avoid the possible sharp changes during decision making process the proposed concept and method are illustrated with a modified pjm five bus system and the ieee 118 bus system

the economic growth debate what some economists have learned but many have not one thing economists should have learned from the economic growth debate is the importance of defining the term growth by growth i mean quantitative increase in the scale of the physical dimensions of the economy i e the rate of flow of matter and energy through the economy from the environment as raw material and back to the environment as waste and the stock of human bodies and artifacts by development i mean the qualitative improvement in the structure design and composition of physical stocks and flows that result from greater knowledge both of technique and of purpose simply put growth is quantitative increase in physical dimensions development is qualitative improvement in non physical characteristics an economy can therefore develop without growing just as the planet earth has developed evolved without growing neoclassical growth models notwithstanding there is good evidence that neither the earth s surface nor the flux of solar energy grows at a rate equal to the rate of interest in fact they seem not to grow at all yet qualitative evolution occurred and continues to occur two general classes of limits to growth in the above defined sense can be further distinguished biophysical limits and ethicosocial limits in both cases it is growth not development that is limited there may or may not exist limits to development but that is another topic standard neoclassical economics was built on the assumption that the economy is far from both limits i e that it is always biophysically possible and ethicosocially desirable for aggregate product to grow as abramowitz l put it echoing pigou

market structure and the stability and volatility of electricity prices by using a novel approach in this paper 2 analysis we have found that electricity prices most of the time have increased in stability and decreased in volatility when the nordic power market has expanded and the degree of competition has increased that electricity prices at nord pool have been generated by a stochastic dynamic system that most often has become more stable during the step wise integration of the nordic power market means that this market is less sensitive to shocks after the

analysis of the probability distribution of lmp by central limit theorem the main goal of this paper is to provide an analytical study on the statistical behaviors of the electricity price at various conditions of the load and the network in order to achieve this goal a novel two step modeling is proposed for the electricity price at the first step it is proved that there is a linear relationship between the locational marginal prices lmp and the strategies of generating companies gencos in this linear relationship the lmp is decomposed to the weighted summation of the strategies of marginal units plus constant value at the second step the lmp is modeled by classic central limit theorem clt using this model an analytical relationship is derived between the price discovery mechanism and characteristics of its probability density function pdf as a result this paper shows analytically that increasing system load causes the price pdf deviates from the normal distribution on the other hand by decreasing system load the electricity price distribution tends toward the normal distribution the statistical studies on the real power markets data confirm these analytical results furthermore the simulation results of the ieee 300 bus test system illustrate the efficiency of the proposed model

sustainability analysis of a society based on exergy studies a case study of the island of samso denmark abstract the danish island samso has since 1997 initiated a process through which the island should reach a state where it would be able to supply its own energy such a situation was reached since 2005 after having established 21 windmills and the island is now a net exporter of electricity to the danish power network at the same time the buildings in the more habituated areas were connected to 4 district heating plants which generate heat from combustion of straw in some cases combined with supplementary inputs from photo thermal devices meanwhile certain activities on the island such as running the ferries cars factories and heating in more distant areas are still dependent on significant input of fossil fuels the inhabitants have recently stated a wish to move on towards being independent of fossil fuels in 2030 and carbon neutral during the next decades as a consequence the idea came up to develop a method for the sustainability analysis of a society which would assist in governing the transitional process in the direction of increasing sustainability therefore a framework has been developed based on the concept exergy that may reveal where large consumptions are taking places such areas are likely to be sensible targets for action or at least increased attention basic methods have been developed that allows to account for infrastructure transfers inputs and outputs and consumption in terms of exergy and taking into account whether the exergy storages or flows can be considered to be renewable or not the framework has been developed for six societal sectors the energy sector the public sector the private households the agricultural sector the industry commerce and trade sector and nature nature is here considered an activity that provides the society with an exergy that may also be of value to our societies often referred to as ecosystem services based on the estimated amount of infrastructure and transfers inputs and outputs a number of sustainability indicators have been developed that may be monitored over time and which may serve to indicate whether potential measures undertaken also lead the society in the right direction an attempt to evaluate the potential importance of wastes has also been carried out as in organic waste could play an important role in acquiring the amount of bio diesel required to run the ferries in the future the results demonstrate that the already existing overhead in production of electricity leaves the island with many options and a great opportunity to be independent of fossil fuels in near future in fact it might well be that socio economical perspectives will turn out to be the more severe obstacles in the transition process adjacent to this work a carbon model has also been set up to reveal the consequence of proposed measures and strategies to the carbon budget of the island jorgensen and nielsen 2014