output dynamics in real business cycles models the time series literature reports two stylized facts about output dynamics in the united states gnp growth is positively autocorrelated and gnp appears to have an important trend reverting component this paper investigates whether current real business cycle rbc models are consistent with these stylized facts many rbc models have weak internal propagation mechanisms and must rely on external sources of dynamics to replicate both facts models that incorporate labor adjustment costs are partially successful they endogenously generate positive autocorrelation in output growth but they need implausibly large transitory shocks to match the trend reverting component in output

belief based refinements in signalling games abstract there are many economic problems which when modelled as games of incomplete information give rise to many sequential equilibria severely limiting the usefulness of the model there has recently been a large literature devoted to refining the set of equilibria in order to reduce this multiplicity by restricting the set of admissible disequilibrium beliefs this paper argues that the logical foundations of some refinements and the equilibria they focus on are problematic and further proposes an alternative refinement that avoids the difficulties we also provide an existence theorem covering a broad class of signalling games often studied in economics journal of economic literature classification numbers c72 c70 d82

oil price shocks and their short and long term effects on the chinese economy a considerable body of economic literature shows the adverse economic impacts of oil price shocks for the developed economies however there has been a lack of empirical study of this kind on china and other developing countries this paper attempts to fill this gap by answering how and to what extent oil price shocks impact china s economy emphasizing on the price transmission mechanisms to that end we develop a structural vector auto regressive model our results show that an oil price increase negatively affects output and investment but positively affects inflation rate and interest rate however with the differentiated price control policies for materials and intermediates on the one hand and final products on the other hand in china the impact on real economy represented by real output and real investment lasts much longer than that to price monetary variables our decomposition results also show that the short term impact namely output decrease induced by the cut of capacity utilization rate is greater in the first one to two years but the portion of the long term impact defined as the impact realized through an investment change increases steadily and exceeds that of short term impact at the end of the second year afterwards the long term impact dominates and maintains for quite some time

oil prices inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated var model for the g 7 countries sharp increases in the price of oil are generally seen as a major contributor to business cycle asymmetries moreover the very recent highs registered in the world oil market are causing concern about possible slowdowns in the economic performance of the most developed countries in this paper a structural cointegrated var model has been considered for the g 7 countries in order to study the direct effects of oil price shocks on output and prices and the reaction of monetary variables to external shocks our results can be summarized as follows i a stationary money demand as suggested by the classic theory of money can be identified for most countries ii according to the estimated coefficients of the structural part of the model for all countries except japan and u k the null hypothesis of an influence of oil prices on the inflation rate cannot be rejected inflation rate shocks are transmitted to the real economy by increasing interest rates iii impulse response analysis suggests for most countries the existence of an instantaneous temporary effect of oil price innovations on prices iv impulse response functions indicate different monetary policy reactions to inflationary and growth shocks v the simulation exercises directed to estimate the total impact of the 1990 oil price shock indicate that for some countries u s a significant part of the effects of the oil price shock is due to the monetary policy reaction function for other countries canada france and italy however the total impact is offset at least in part by an easing of monetary conditions

the time varying effect of oil price shocks on euro area exports abstract in this paper we provide novel evidence on changes in the relationship between the real price of oil and real exports in the euro area by combining robust predictions on the sign of the impulse responses obtained from a theoretical model with restrictions on the slope of the oil demand and oil supply curves we identify oil supply and foreign productivity shocks in a time varying var with stochastic volatility we find that from the 1980s onwards the relationship between oil prices and euro area exports has become less negative conditional on oil supply shortfalls and more positive conditional on foreign productivity shocks using the theoretical model we show that our empirical findings can be accounted for by i stronger trade relationship between the euro area and emerging economies ii a decrease in the share of oil in production and iii increased competitive pressures in the product market

oil price shocks and real gdp growth empirical evidence for some oecd countries this study assesses empirically the effects of oil price shocks on the real economic activity of the main industrialized countries multivariate var analysis is carried out using both linear and non linear models the latter category includes three approaches employed in the literature namely the asymmetric scaled and net specifications evidence of a non linear impact of oil prices on real gdp is found in particular oil price increases are found to have an impact on gdp growth of a larger magnitude than that of oil price declines with the latter being statistically insignificant in most cases among oil importing countries oil price increases are found to have a negative impact on economic activity in all cases but japan moreover the effect of oil shocks on gdp growth differs between the two oil exporting countries in the sample with the uk being negatively affected by an oil price increase and norway benefiting from it

on the dynamic effects of oil price shocks a study using industry level data abstract this paper analyzes the effects of oil price shocks on demand and supply in various industries the impulse responses of identified var models indicate that for industries that have a large cost share of oil such as petroleum refinery and industrial chemicals oil price shocks mainly reduce supply in contrast for many other industries with the automobile industry being a particularly important example oil price shocks mainly reduce demand the paper suggests that oil price shocks influence economic activities beyond that explained by direct input cost effects possibly by delaying purchasing decisions of durable goods

do oil price shocks matter evidence for some european countries this paper analyzes the oil price macroeconomy relationship by means of analyzing the impact of oil prices on inflation and industrial production indexes for many european countries using quarterly data for the period 1960 1999 first we test for cointegration allowing for structural breaks among the variables second and in order to account for the possible non linear relationships we use different transformation of oil price data the main results suggest that oil prices have permanent effects on inflation and short run but asymmetric effects on production growth rates furthermore significant differences are found among the responses of the countries to these shocks

oil and the macroeconomy since world war ii all but one of the u s recessions since world war ii have been preceded typically with a lag of around three fourths of a year by a dramatic increase in the price of crude petroleum this does not mean that oil shocks caused these recessions evidence is presented however that even over the period 1948 72 this correlation is statistically significant and nonspurious supporting the proposition that oil shocks were a contributing factor in at least some of the u s recessions prior to 1972 by extension energy price increases may account for much of post opec macroeconomic performance

what do we learn from the price of crude oil futures summary despite their widespread use as predictors of the spot price of oil oil futures prices tend to be less accurate in the mean squared prediction error sense than no change forecasts this result is driven by the variability of the futures price about the spot price as captured by the oil futures spread this variability can be explained by the marginal convenience yield of oil inventories using a two country multi period general equilibrium model of the spot and futures markets for crude oil we show that increased uncertainty about future oil supply shortfalls under plausible assumptions causes the spread to decline increased uncertainty also causes precautionary demand for oil to increase resulting in an immediate increase in the real spot price thus the negative of the oil futures spread may be viewed as an indicator of fluctuations in the price of crude oil driven by precautionary demand an empirical analysis of this indicator provides evidence of how shifts in the uncertainty about future oil supply shortfalls affect the real spot price of crude oil copyright 2010 john wiley sons ltd

oil and the euro area economy we examine the macroeconomic effects of different types of oil shocks and the oil transmission mechanism in the euro area a comparison is made with the us and across individual member countries first we find that the underlying source of the oil price shift is crucial to determine the repercussions on the economy and the appropriate monetary policy reaction second the transmission mechanism is considerably different compared to the us in particular inflationary effects in the us are mainly driven by a strong direct pass through of rising energy prices and indirect effects of higher production costs in contrast euro area inflation reacts sluggishly and is much more driven by second round effects of increasing wages the monetary policy reaction of the ecb to oil shocks is also strikingly different compared to the fed the inflation objective relative to the output stabilization objective appears more important for euro area monetary authorities than for the fed third there are substantial asymmetries across member countries these differences are due to different labour market dynamics which are further aggravated by a common monetary policy stance which does not fit all gert peersman and ine van robays

spatial competition and price leadership in the stackelberg price leader price follower model each firm is typically better off as a follower than as a leader in this paper we show that introducing the spatial dimension provides a means of endogenising the role of price leadership furthermore the leader follower framework yields existence of a price and location equilibrium in the hotelling spatial model of competition where none exists under the original specification we first analyse the original hotelling model by determining reaction functions for firms this approach allows the model to be fully characterised and affords an intuitive explanation of the non existence of a price equilibrium for certain locations the reaction functions are then used to determine the solution when one firm adopts the stackelberg leadership role contrary to the existing predictions of the simple spatial duopoly model it is found that the outcome is asymmetric in terms of stackelberg equilibrium locations prices and profits with the first firm in the market enjoying higher profits than the subsequent entrant the equilibrium involves one firm locating at the mid point of the market this outcome is also appealing as it corresponds to the entry deterring and monopoly solutions

a comparison of the effects of exogenous oil supply shocks on output and inflation in the g7 countries a comparison of the effects of exogenous shocks to global crude oil production on seven major industrialized economies suggests a fair degree of similarity in the real growth responses an exogenous oil supply disruption typically causes a temporary reduction in real gdp growth that is concentrated in the second year after the shock inflation responses are more varied the median cpi inflation response peaks after three to four quarters exogenous oil supply disruptions need not generate sustained inflation or stagflation typical responses include a fall in the real wage higher short term interest rates and a depreciating currency with respect to the dollar despite many qualitative similarities there is strong statistical evidence that the responses to exogenous oil supply disruptions differ across g7 countries for suitable subsets of countries homogeneity cannot be ruled out a counterfactual historical exercise suggests that the evolution of cpi inflation in the g7 countries would have been similar overall to the actual path even in the absence of exogenous shocks to oil production consistent with a monetary explanation of the inflation of the 1970s there is no evidence that the 1973 1974 and 2002 2003 oil supply shocks had a substantial impact on real growth in any g7 country whereas the 1978 1979 1980 and 1990 1991 shocks contributed to lower growth in at least some g7 countries jel e31 e32 q43

sectoral shifts and cyclical unemployment a substantial fraction of cyclical unemployment is better characterized as fluctuations of the frictional or natural rate than as deviations from some relatively stable natural rate shifts of employment demand between sectors of the economy necessitate continuous labor reallocation since it takes time for workers to find new jobs some unemployment is unavoidable this paper presents evidence that most of the unemployment fluctuations of the seventies unlike those in the sixties were induced by unusual structural shifts within the u s economy simple time series models of layoffs and unemployment are constructed that include a measure of structural shifts within the labor market these models are estimated and a derived natural rate series is constructed

barometric price leadership abstract barometric price leadership refers to situations in which a price leader acts as a barometer of prevailing market conditions for other firms in the industry in this paper a model of price setting with costly information acquisition is analyzed it is shown that the unique equilibrium outcome is for one firm to acquire information and become a price leader while the other firm does not purchase information and becomes a follower in contrast to most previous work leadership in this model is due to the informational setting not the price setting mechanism as with symmetric information the unique outcome is the symmetric bertrand equilibrium

stochastic trends and economic fluctuations are business cycles mainly the result of permanent shocks to productivity this paper uses a long run restriction implied by a large class of real business cycle models identifying permanent productivity shocks as shocks to the common stochastic trend in output consumption and investment to provide new evidence on this question econometric tests indicate that this common stochastic trend cointegration implication is consistent with postwar u s data however in systems with nominal variables the estimates of this common stochastic trend indicate that permanent productivity shocks typically explain less than half of the business cycle variability in output consumption and investment copyright 1991 by american economic association

ringleaders in larger number asymmetric cartels the concept of a cartel ringleader has specific legal meaning but has received relatively little attention in the economic literature of cartels this article draws on a sample of 89 european cartels to identify how often ringleaders exist who they are and what they do it argues that ringleaders are more likely where the traditional cartel problems are likely to be most acute i e with larger numbers of members exhibiting substantial size asymmetries this is confirmed for price fixing and bid rigging cartels and is especially pronounced where the ringleader displays aggressive as opposed to merely organisational behaviour

pricing strategies who leads and who follows in the air and rail passenger markets in italy abstractin this paper we aim at empirically uncovering the existence of price leadership in the passenger transport market whose oligopolistic structure facilitates the strategic interaction amon

endogenous sequencing of firm decisions abstract when firms are symmetrically informed a stackelberg leader prefers to be leader rather than a cournot duopolist however when the leader has superior information about demand the leader may earn lower ex ante profits than it would earn if it was choosing quantities simultaneously with the follower in this paper i give the firm with superior information the option of delaying its quantity decision until the decision period of the less informed firm so that decisions are made simultaneously surprisingly in the unique stable outcome the informed firm moves first regardless of its private information journal of economic literature classification numbers c72 c73 d82 l10

second round effects after oil price shocks evidence for the euro area and germany abstract we investigate second round effects caused by oil price shocks calculating wage responses net of those movements that are induced through cpi changes results show no strong evidence for second round effects in the euro area and even less so in germany

cross country differences in the effects of oil shocks abstract we compare the macroeconomic consequences of several types of oil shocks across a set of industrialized countries that are structurally very diverse with respect to the role of oil and other forms of energy in the economy the results crucially depend on the underlying source of the oil price shift when a rise in oil prices is caused by increased global economic activity or a rise in oil specific demand almost all countries experience respectively a temporary increase and transitory decline of real gdp the role of oil and other forms of energy cannot explain the differences in the effects of both shocks across countries in contrast this role is very important to explain asymmetries in the effects of exogenous oil supply shocks whereas net oil and energy importing countries typically face a permanent fall in economic activity the impact is insignificant or even positive in net energy exporting countries in addition countries that improved their net energy position the most over time became less vulnerable to oil supply shocks relative to other countries

an equilibrium model of sectoral reallocation this paper constructs a two period two sector model in which there are permanent sectoral shocks it analyzes the equilibrium path of individual labor supply sectoral employment and duration of unemployment in response to these shocks equilibrium allocations are shown to be easy to characterize and comparative statics results are provided

cartel price announcements the vitamins industry abstract the primary manufacturers of vitamins admitted to participating in international market share agreement cartels for several years during the 1990s their announced price increases appeared in leading trade journals we show that price announcements during the cartel period and the lead times before these prices took effect were fundamentally different in character from price announcements when explicit collusion was less likely these differences are consistent with our model of price announcements where we account for the importance to the cartel of buyer acceptance of or resistance to a price increase acceptance avoids costly market share reallocations among members of an explicit cartel logit estimates show that after 1985 the likelihood of a price announcement is largely driven by the length of time between announcements rather than cost or demand factors suggesting that the price announcements after 1985 stem from cartel meetings

price of oil and world inflation and recession new evidence shows that the commonly held assumption that the 1973 74 oil price increase directly affected us and world inflation and subsequent recession is consistent with the empirical data an extended lucas varro real income equation applied to the us united kingdom canada france germany italy japan and the netherlands gives mixed results partly because of price control and decontrol programs simulation experiments on the price control variable using us data finds strong effects further studies can be made when consistent international data is available for the 1979 80 period 18 references 4 figures 3 tables dck

the aggregate effects of sectoral reallocations abstract can a one time permanent change in the fundamentals behind the sectoral composition of the economy prompt an aggregate downturn can this downturn be non negligible even if one uses us data to determine the relative size of gross vs net job flows and the importance of job creation costs can one consider the military build down of the 1990s as a plausible cause for the 1990 1991 recession do sectoral reallocations generate responses that are qualitatively similar to productivity shocks we use a variant of the mortensen pissarides 1994 review of economic studies 61 397 415 job creation destruction model calibrate it to us labor market data and run experiments that suggest one can answer yes to all these questions

dynamic spillovers of oil price shocks and economic policy uncertainty this study examines the dynamic relationship between changes in oil prices and the economic policy uncertainty index for a sample of both net oil exporting and net oil importing countries over the period 1997 01 2013 06 to achieve that an extension of the diebold and yilmaz 2009 2012 dynamic spillover index based on structural decomposition is employed the results reveal that economic policy uncertainty oil price shocks responds negatively to aggregate demand oil price shocks economic policy uncertainty shocks furthermore during the great recession of 2007 2009 total spillovers increase considerably reaching unprecedented heights moreover in net terms economic policy uncertainty becomes the dominant transmitter of shocks between 1997 and 2009 while in the post 2009 period there is a significant role for supply side and oil specific demand shocks as net transmitters of spillover effects these results are important for policy makers as well as investors interested in the oil market

asymmetric information acquisition and behavior in role choice models an endogenously generated signaling game the authors employ a static homogeneous good duopoly model wherein firms can choose to produce in one of two periods the model allows agents to acquire information and then traces the impact of the information pattern on subsequent production behavior asymmetric information acquisition leads to a unique production role choice pattern the informed uninformed firm chooses to assume the leader s follower s role moreover if information is costly the typical equilibrium involves only one firm acquiring information thus identical firms with identical opportunities choose to become asymmetrically informed and produce sequentially this is the unique refined equilibrium outcome copyright 1994 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

what happened to the oil price macroeconomy relationship abstract strong evidence is found that oil prices no longer granger cause many u s macroeconomic indicator variables in data after 1973 a number of potential explanations are explored that sample stability issues are responsible that oil prices are now endogenous and that linear and symmetric specifications misrepresent the form of the oil price interaction none of these hypotheses are supported by the data the opec price increases do appear to have had significant impacts while the effects of the price declines of the 1980s are smaller and harder to characterize these results have potentially important implications for the large body of research which utilizes oil prices as an instrumental or explanatory variable

the impact of oil price shocks evidence from the industries of six oecd countries most of the studies about the macroeconomic consequences of oil price shocks have been focused on us aggregate data in contrast to these studies this paper empirically assesses the dynamic effect of oil price shocks on the output of the main manufacturing industries in six oecd countries the pattern of responses to an oil price shock by industrial output is diverse across the four european monetary union emu countries under consideration france germany italy and spain but broadly similar in the uk and the us moreover evidence on cross industry heterogeneity of oil shock effects within the emu countries is also reported

the cyclical behavior of marginal cost and price the author examines the cyclical behavior of price marginal cost margins for u s manufac turing after 1956 short run marginal cost is markedly procyclical this is primarily due to procyclical overtime payments incurred beca use employment is not perfectly flexible in most industries output price fails to respond to the cyclical movement in marginal cost so price marginal cost margins are markedly countercyclical the res ults contradict business cycle theories that explain low production i n a recession by a high real cost of producing they support theories that explain low production in a recession by the inability of firms to sell their output copyright 1987 by american economic association

trade linkages and macroeconomic effects of the price of oil in this paper we assess the impact of oil price shocks on oil producer and oil consuming economies var models for different countries are linked together via a trade matrix as in abeysinghe 2001 as expected we find that oil producers here russia and canada benefit from oil price shocks for example a large oil shock leading to a price increase of 50 boosts russian gdp by about 6 however oil producers are hurt by indirect effects of positive oil price shocks as economic activity in their exporter countries suffers for oil consumers the effects are more diverse in some countries output falls in response to an oil price shock while other countries seem to be relatively immune to oil price changes finally indirect effects are also detected for oil consumer countries those countries which trade more with oil producers gain indirect benefits via higher demand from oil producing countries in general the largest negative total effects from positive oil price shocks are found for japan china the usa finland and switzerland while other countries in our sample seem to have fared quite well during recent positive oil price shocks the indirect effects are negative for russia finland germany and netherlands

how sensitive are consumer expenditures to retail energy prices abstract there is growing evidence that the primary effect of energy price shocks on the u s economy involves a reduction in consumer spending we quantify the direct effect on real consumption of unanticipated changes in discretionary income shifts in precautionary savings and changes in the operating cost of energy using durables the possibility of asymmetries in the response of real consumption to energy price shocks is also considered we demonstrate that linear models are consistent with the symmetric behavior of real consumption in 1979 when energy prices increased sharply and in 1986 when they fell sharply it is shown that historically energy price shocks have been an important factor in explaining u s real consumption growth but by no means the dominant factor

the economic effects of energy price shocks large fluctuations in energy prices have been a distinguishing characteristic of the u s economy since the 1970s turmoil in the middle east rising energy prices in the u s and evidence of global warming recently have reignited interest in the link between energy prices and economic performance this paper addresses a number of the key issues in this debate what are energy price shocks and where do they come from how responsive is energy demand to changes in energy prices how do consumers expenditure patterns evolve in response to energy price shocks how do energy price shocks affect u s real output inflation and stock prices why do energy price increases seem to cause recessions but energy price decreases do not seem to cause expansions why has there been a surge in the price of oil in recent years why has this new energy price shock not caused a recession so far have the effects of energy price shocks waned since the 1980s and if so why as the paper demonstrates it is critical to account for the endogeneity of energy prices and to differentiate between the effects of demand and supply shocks in energy markets when answering these questions

a model of price leadership based on consumer loyalty this paper analyzes a duopolistic price setting game in which firms have loyal consumer segments but cannot distinguish them from price sensitive consumers the authors adapt a variant of h varian s 1980 simultaneous price setting game to analyze price leader equilibria the properties of the price leader equilibria with an exogenously specified leader motivate the construction of a game of timing in which the firm with the larger segment of loyal consumers becomes an endogenous price leader this demonstrates that consumer loyalty may play an important role in establishing the existence and identity of a price leader copyright 1992 by blackwell publishing ltd

cyclical fluctuations and sectoral reallocation evidence from the psid abstract this paper documents the correlation between permanent sectoral reallocation and the business cycle using data from the michigan panel study of income dynamics we find that the outflow of workers from goods to services accelerates during recessions the flow from services to stable employment in surables accelerates during booms we also document the contribution of sectoral reallocation to total unemployment permanent switchers account for about a quarter of the total weeks of unemployment during booms this proportion rises to nearly 40 duing recessions

price leadership with incomplete information abstract the dominant firm is a price searcher for the market as such it is in the position of providing a public good for fringe suppliers this public good consists in the price setter s search for the best price this paper presents a model of the dominant firm s behavior in acquiring information about demand where such information is costly the results accord with intuition for example the larger the market share of the dominant firm the more information it acquires

adaptive learning vs equilibrium refinements in an entry limit pricing game signalling models are studied using experiments and adaptive learning models in an entry limit pricing game even though high cost monopolists never play dominated strategies the easier it is for other players to recognise that these strategies are dominated the more likely play is to converge to the undominated separating equilibrium and the more rapidly limit pricing develops this is inconsistent with the equilibrium refinements literature including cho kreps intuitive criterion and pure bayesian adaptive learning models an augmented adaptive learning model in which some players recognise the existence of dominated strategies and their consequences predicts these outcomes

decomposition of hours based on extensive and intensive margins of labor abstract we decompose the underlying disturbances in total hours into three kinds disturbances that shift the level of employment in the long run those that change the sectoral composition of employment in the long run and those that cause temporary movement of hours our identifying restriction exploits the distinctive nature of the two margins of labor employment and hours per worker based on the postwar u s data we find that aggregate and sectoral disturbances are roughly equally important for the cyclical fluctuations of aggregate hours

how much did oil market developments contribute to the 2009 recession in germany in this paper we use a structural vector autoregressive model to study the effects of oil market developments on the german economy we find that higher oil prices are always associated with a decline in private consumption expenditures but the response of gross domestic product gdp crucially depends on the underlying shock while a disruption in oil supply provokes a recession positive world demand shocks prompt a temporary increase in exports and investment which initially outweigh the cutback on consumption in a counterfactual analysis we show that the world demand shocks that led to the 2007 2008 oil price rise triggered a delayed 0 8 percent decrease in german gdp in 2009 and therefore notably contributed to the recession of that year

oil prices and economic activity an asymmetric cointegration approach the aim of this paper is to study the long term relationship between oil prices and economic activity proxied by gdp to account for asymmetries existing in the links between the two variables we propose an approach based on asymmetric cointegration our empirical analysis concerns the u s economy but also the g7 europe and euro area economies results indicate that while standard cointegration is rejected there is evidence for asymmetric cointegration between oil prices and gdp

collusion and leadership abstract the paper explores the role of price or quantity leadership in facilitating collusion it extends the standard analysis of tacit collusion by allowing firms to make their strategic choices either simultaneously or sequentially it is shown that price leadership indeed facilitates collusion by making it easier to punish deviations by the leader in case of pure bertrand competition price leadership restores the scope for perfect collusion in markets where collusion would not be sustainable otherwise when firms face asymmetric costs or offer differentiated products price leadership can also enhance the profitability of collusion in case of asymmetric costs the less efficient firm must act as the leader finally such leadership is less effective in case of cournot competition since following an aggressive deviation by the leader the follower would rather limit its own output making it more difficult to punish the deviation still quantity leadership may enhance collusion when it is already somewhat effective in a simultaneous move setting

the macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks evidence from a statistical identification approach we analyze the dynamics in the global crude oil market based on a structural vector autoregressive model we identify the model by presuming that reduced form residuals can be traced back to structural shocks that are independently distributed over the cross equation dimension the resulting point estimates of the impulse response functions allow for a direct comparison with the outcomes of more conventional identification approaches our results are remarkably similar to the results regarding oil market dynamics in kilian and murphy 2012 and inoue and kilian 2013 even though they rely on statistical arguments instead of a set of theory based a priori restrictions based on the results from our statistical approach we investigate the cumulative contributions of different oil shocks on the rapid fall in oil prices at the end of 2008 and 2014 as well as the effects of different oil shocks on macroeconomic aggregates in the us the euro area and china