welfare with imperfect foreknowledge the case of risk aversion we study the use of discrete choice models in the context of recreation when there may be discrepancy between the anticipated ex ante and the experienced quality of site attributes due to imperfect information unlike previous literature on the topic we relax the assumption of risk neutrality adopting a model with quasi linear preferences we characterize the disparity between ex ante and ex post utility by decomposing expected utility into a term stemming from bias in beliefs and a component representing willingness to pay for reducing uncertainty in site attributes our results show that ex post corrections of welfare losses are attenuated by greater dispersion in beliefs about amenities

the impact of spatial patterns in road traffic externalities on willingness to pay estimates studying traffic related externalities in the city of gent belgium we find little to no evidence that observed spatial dependencies in actual objective externality levels play a direct role in determining spatial dependencies in the willingness to pay wtp for changes in the city s mobility policy investigating alternative factors that can influence wtp estimates however reveals that higher stated subjective externality levels are positively correlated with higher wtp for reducing exposure to noise air and odor pollution our results suggest complex interactions between housing decisions perceived externality levels and wtp estimates thus allowing for subjective perceptions sorting behavior and patterns in individuals characteristics can result in wtp estimates that are not spatially correlated even though the underlying externalities are spatially correlated

do better schools matter parental valuation of elementary education the evaluation of numerous school reforms requires an understanding of the value of better schools given the difficulty of calculating the relationship between school quality and student outcomes i turn to another method and use house prices to infer the value parents place on school quality i look within school districts at houses located on attendance district boundaries houses then differ only by the elementary school the child attends i thereby effectively remove the variation in neighborhoods taxes and school spending i find that parents are willing to pay 2 5 percent more for a 5 percent increase in test scores this finding is robust to a number of sensitivity checks

an alternative approach to housing market segmentation using hedonic price data abstract much empirical research has been devoted to housing market segmentation and the implications for the application of the hedonic price model market segmentation is demonstrated empirically in j urban econ 3 2 146 166 1976 j urban econ 7 1 102 108 1980 rev econ statist 66 3 404 406 1974 there appears to be theoretical evidence j pol econ 82 1 34 55 1974 that such empirical efforts may have been less than adequate unfortunately the empirical applications of rosen s model j environ econ manag 5 81 102 1978 j urban econ 5 3 357 369 1978 do not seem to effectively account for the complexity of the factors which cause multiple equilibria market segmentation this paper demonstrates empirically that market segments can be defined along more dimensions than hitherto have been included in any analysis

partial identification of amenity demand functions this paper presents a new hedonic framework for reduced form estimation of the demand for spatially delineated nonmarket amenities we begin from a conventional model of market equilibrium where an amenity is conveyed to homeowners by virtue of their residential location choices different housing markets may have different hedonic price functions due to variation across markets in the joint distribution of preferences income regulations and technology in this setting taste based sorting within and across markets confounds point identification of reduced form descriptions for amenity demand curves however we demonstrate that basic knowledge of the sorting process is sufficient to construct instruments that identify bounds on demand curves bounds on demand curves can be translated into ranges of welfare measures for non marginal changes in amenities we find these ranges to be potentially informative in a demonstrative application to evaluating the benefits of improved lake water clarity in the northeast

value of parsimonious nutritional information in a framed field experiment abstract this study investigates consumers beliefs about the tastiness and healthiness of 173 food items in a framed field experiment designed to mirror a grocery shopping environment using data collected from 129 food shoppers in grenoble france demand models are estimated to determine how product choice is affected by price taste and perceived healthiness and how choices change with the provision of objective health information unlike previous studies focusing on relatively complex nutrition labels we elicit and convey health information using simple nutritional indices meant to lower search and cognitive processing costs the results indicate that consumers are willing to pay for tastier foods and for healthier foods particularly if the consumers have objective information as opposed to perceived subjective information on nutrient content the estimates suggest that the value of the type of nutritional information provided in the experiment is 0 98 per day the figure refers to the daily welfare benefits that arise from being able to make a set of choices that better reflect people s preferences by receiving the nutrient index information on all 173 food items versus not having such information

catastrophe economics the national flood insurance program hurricane betsy which hit louisiana september 9 1965 was one of the most intense deadly and costly storms ever to make landfall in the united states it killed 76 people in louisiana and caused 1 5 billion in damage equal to nearly 10 billion in 2010 dollars in 1965 no flood insurance was available so victims had to rely on friends and family charities or federal relief after that catastrophe the u s government established a new program in 1968 the national flood insurance program nfip to make flood insurance widely available now after more than 40 years of operation the nfip is today one of the longest standing government run disaster insurance programs in the world in this paper i present an overview of the 40 years of operation of the national flood insurance program starting with how and why it was created and how it has evolved to now cover 1 23 trillion in assets i analyze the financial balance of the nfip between 1969 and 2008 excluding the 2005 hurricane season which included hurricane katrina as an outlier policyholders have paid nearly 11 billion more in premiums than they have received in claim reimbursements over that period however the program has spent an average of 40 percent of all collected premiums on administrative expenses more than three quarters of which were paid to private insurance intermediaries who sell and manage flood insurance policies on behalf of the federal government but do not bear any risk i present challenges the nfip faces today and propose ways those challenges might be overcome through innovative modifications

wealth distribution in life cycle economies abstract this paper compares the age wealth distribution produced in life cycle economies to the corresponding distribution in the us economy the idea is to calibrate the model economies to match features of the us earnings distribution and then examine the wealth distribution implications of the model economies the findings are that the calibrated model economies with earnings and lifetime uncertainty can replicate measures of both aggregate wealth and transfer wealth in the us furthermore the model economies produce the us wealth gini and a significant fraction of the wealth inequality within age groups however the model economies produce less than half the fraction of wealth held by the top 1 percent of us households

a methodology for measuring food poverty applied to kenya abstract this paper proposes a new way of establishing a food poverty line taking into account regional food preferences and prices it uses this poverty line to derive a food poverty measure which satisfies the desirable fundamental properties of such measures and has the additional advantage of being additively decomposable the measurement of food poverty is further generalized to heterogeneous groups of households facing different sets of relative prices and exhibiting different food preferences finally the above methodology is applied to the empirical estimation of food poverty among kenyan smallholders and the results contrasted with those obtained by two other methods

agricultural household models extensions applications and policy this book presents the basic model of an agricultural household that underlies most of the case studies undertaken so far the model assumes that households are price takers and is therefore recursive the decisions modeled include those affecting production and the demand for inputs and those affecting consumption and the supply of labor comparative results on selected elasticities are presented for a number of economies the empirical significance of the approach is demonstrated in a comparison of models that treat production and consumption decisions separately and those in which the decisionmaking process is recursive the book summarizes the implications of agricultural pricing policy for the welfare of farm households marketed surplus the demand for nonagricultural goods and services the rural labor market budget revenues and foreign exchange earnings in addition it is shown that the basic model can be extended in order to explore the effects of government policy on crop composition nutritional status health saving and investment and to provide a more comprehensive analysis of the effects on budget revenues and foreign exchange earnings methodological topics primarily the data requirements of the basic model and its extensions along with aggregation market interaction uncertainty and market imperfections are discussed the most important methodological issues the question of the recursive property of these models is also discussed

catastrophic natural disasters and economic growth this paper examines the short and long run average causal impact of catastrophic natural disasters on economic growth by combining information from comparative case studies the counterfactual of the cases studied is assessed by constructing synthetic control groups taking advantage of the fact that the timing of large sudden natural disasters is an exogenous event it is found that only extremely large disasters have a negative effect on output both in the short and long run however this result appears in two events where radical political revolutions followed the natural disasters once these political changes are controlled for even extremely large disasters do not display any significant effect on economic growth it is also found that smaller but still very large natural disasters have no discernible effect on output

housing natural hazards and insurance abstract this paper describes residential development and location choice within a community subject to future natural hazards of uncertain severity this is accomplished by constructing an equilibrium model of housing markets in which locations are differentiated by both risk of loss due to natural hazards and distance from a central business district in this context households trade off location and risk amenities allowing for the possibility that areas within the outer boundary of the community will be left undeveloped in equilibrium general equilibrium comparative statics are derived in economies both with and without insurance emphasis is placed on describing the impact of variables such as population and income on the development of hazardous areas

estimating the general equilibrium benefits of large changes in spatially delineated public goods the purpose of this article is to report a new approach for measuring the general equilibrium willingness to pay for large changes in spatially delineated public goods such as air quality we estimate the parameters of a locational equilibrium model and compute equilibria for alternative scenarios characterizing the availability of public goods within a system of communities welfare measures take into consideration the adjustments of households in equilibrium to nonmarginal changes in public goods the framework is used to analyze willingness to pay for reductions in ozone concentrations in southern california between 1990 and 1995

demand systems estimation with microdata a censored regression approach demand systems estimation increasingly makes use of household level microdata mainly to measure the effects of demographic variables data based on these household expenditure surveys present a major estimation problem for any given household many of the goods have zero consumption implying a censored dependent variable techniques which do not take this censored dependent variable into account will yield biased results we utilize a censored regression approach that is computationally simple consistent and asymptotically efficient the results are then presented and compared with those obtained using an uncensored technique

measuring welfare effects of product contamination with consumer uncertainty abstract a methodology is developed for measuring consumer welfare loss from market demand due to contamination when information is imperfect comparison of behavior before and after awareness permits calculation of the cost of ignorance which occurs when news of contamination is withheld or undiscovered for a time as well as when excessive reporting and exaggeration cause overreaction avoidance costs are also calculated for consumers who consume less than they would with perfect information due to risk aversion the methodology is applied to analyzing the heptachlor crisis which reduced milk consumption in hawaii by over 80

the economics of food aid under subsistence farming with an application to malawi abstract we investigate how food aid affects price and production of staple food with a partial equilibrium model with non separable production and consumption the model captures the key characteristics of sub saharan africa subsistence economies simulations generate negative but also positive food aid elasticities of production conditions are identified which mitigate the negative impact and support a positive impact the share of domestic food production in total staple food demand and the share of income from staple food production in total household income are key determinants price and production equations estimated with a panel of district data of the malawi maize market for the period 1999 2010 show a small positive impact of food aid large negative impacts of food aid are not likely given production and income shares and behavioural responses

the impact of the correlation between health expenditure and survival probability on the demand for insurance abstract this paper studies the effects of health shocks on the demand for health insurance and annuities along with precautionary saving in a dynamic life cycle model i argue that when the health shock can simultaneously increase health expenses and reduce longevity rational agents would neither fully insure their uncertain health expenses nor fully annuitize their wealth because the correlation between health expenses and longevity provides a self insurance channel for both uncertainties that is when the agent is hit by a health shock which simultaneously increases health expenses and reduces longevity she can use the resources originally saved for consumption in the reduced period of life to pay for the increased health expenses since the two uncertainties partially offset each other the precautionary saving generated in the model should be smaller than in a standard model without the correlation between health expenses and longevity in a quantitative life cycle model calibrated using the medical expenditure panel survey dataset i find that the health expenses are highly correlated with the survival probabilities and this correlation significantly reduces the demand for actuarially fair health insurance while its impact on the demand for annuities and precautionary saving is relatively small

u s tax policy and health insurance demand can a regressive policy improve welfare abstract the u s tax policy on health insurance is regressive because it subsidizes only those offered group insurance through their employers who also tend to have a relatively high income moreover the subsidy takes the form of deductions from the progressive income tax system giving high income earners a larger subsidy to understand the effect of the policy we construct a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogenous agents and an endogenous demand for health insurance a complete removal of the subsidy may lead to a partial collapse of the group insurance market reduce the insurance coverage and deteriorate welfare there is however room for improving the coverage and welfare by extending a refundable credit to the individual insurance market

the taking of land when should compensation be paid the analysis focuses on the question of whether the payment of compensation for land taken by eminent domain is efficient when the taking decision is independent of land use zero compensation is efficient but full compensation is not when the project decision is no longer independent of land use and can be affected by investor decisions neither compensation rule is generally efficient because of the moral hazard problem with risk averse consumers and risk neutral firms the previous conclusions remain essentially unchanged however when the project decision rule involves a budgetary fiscal illusion additional compensation may be necessary to correct the incentives facing the project decision maker

uncertain medical expenses and precautionary saving near the end of the life cycle this paper introduces a dynamic structural model of household consumption decisions in which elderly families consider the effects of uncertain future medical expenses when deciding current levels of consumption the model with uncertain medical expenses implies a potentially important role for precautionary saving incentives to explain slow rates of dissaving among elderly americans during retirement rather than just simulating the stochastic dynamic model preference parameters are estimated using panel data on health wealth and expenditures for retired families the health uncertainty model predicts consumption levels closer to observed expenditures than a life cycle model with uncertain longevity however elderly families typically dissave their financial assets more slowly than even the baseline health uncertainty model predicts is optimal

do capitalization effects for public goods reveal the public s willingness to pay this article develops a welfare theoretic framework for interpreting evidence on the impacts of public programs on housing markets we extend rosen s hedonic model to explain how housing prices capitalize exogenous shocks to public goods and externalities the model predicts that trading between heterogeneous buyers and sellers will drive a wedge between these capitalization effects and welfare changes we test this hypothesis in the context of changes in measures of school quality in five metropolitan areas results from boundary discontinuity designs suggest that capitalization effects understate parents willingness to pay for public school improvements by as much as 75

applied welfare economics with discrete choice models economists have been paying increasing attention to the study of situations in which consumers face a discrete rather than a continuous set of choices such models are potentially very important in evaluating the impact of government programs upon consumer welfare but very little has been said in general regarding the tools of applied welfare economics indiscrete choice situations this paper shows how the conventional methods of applied welfare economics can be modified to handle such cases it focuses on the computation of the excess burden of taxation and the evaluation of quality change the results are applied to stochastic utility models including the popular cases of probit and logit analysis throughout the emphasis is on providing rigorous guidelines for carrying out applied work this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

environmental valuation with imperfect information the case of the random utility model this paper considers welfare analysis with therandom utility model rum when perceptions ofenvironmental quality differ from objectivemeasures of environmental quality environmental quality is assumed to be anexperience good so that while perceptions ofquality determine choices ex postutility is determined by objective quality given this assumption i derive a measure ofthe welfare impact of changes in environmentalquality and i show how this new welfaremeasure differs from the traditional welfaremeasure developed by hanemann 1982 this newwelfare measure provides an approach tomeasuring the value of information aboutenvironmental quality within the framework ofthe random utility model

learning in a hedonic framework valuing brownfield remediation incomplete information in property value hedonic models can bias estimates of marginal willingness to pay mwtp using brownfield remediation as an application this article recovers hedonic values from a dynamic neighborhood choice framework that allows households to learn about brownfield contamination in a bayesian fashion before choosing where to live i find that ignoring learning yields nontrivial biases to the mwtp estimate this has important implications for hedonic valuation if agents are imperfectly informed estimates are used to calculate information s value had it been withheld from the public and to assess heterogeneity in information s value along site and homebuyer demographics

which hedonic models can we trust to recover the marginal willingness to pay for environmental amenities abstract the hedonic property value model is among our foremost tools for evaluating the economic consequences of policies that target the supply of local public goods environmental services and urban amenities we design a theoretically consistent and empirically realistic monte carlo study of whether omitted variables seriously undermine the method s ability to accurately identify economic values our results suggest that large gains in accuracy can be realized by moving from the standard linear specifications for the price function to a more flexible framework that uses a combination of spatial fixed effects quasi experimental identification and temporal controls for housing market adjustment

life cycle effects of health risk abstract health status affects individuals labor supply asset accumulation and welfare through four main channels productivity medical expenditures time endowments and survival probabilities using a life cycle model calibrated to the u s for different education groups i evaluate the relative importance of each channel and quantify their interactions the productivity and time endowment channels dominate in importance and the risks implied by them contribute significantly to income inequality and precautionary savings health effects are larger for the non college than college educated and account to a large extent for the lower labor supply and higher reliance on government transfers of the non college group

sorting over flood risk and implications for policy reform abstract do individuals sort across flood risk this paper applies a boundary discontinuity design to a residential sorting model to provide novel estimates of sorting across flood risk by race ethnicity and income we find clear evidence that low income and minority residents are more likely to move into high risk flood zones we then highlight the overall and distributional implications of proposed price and information reforms to the u s national flood insurance program while such reforms are likely welfare increasing overall heterogeneous behavioral responses yield significant distributive effects that also alter the composition of residents in harm s way

decomposing the structural identification of non market values abstract this paper addresses the issue of transparency in structural modeling by investigating how the assumptions of a structural model contribute to its identification of non market values assumptions about the form of the utility function the depiction of preference heterogeneity and the definition for the choice set are shown to jointly identify a partition of preference space which explains observed behavior the borders of the partition reflect substitution patterns the regions in the partition set identify preferences assumptions about the distribution of preferences within each region point identify partial equilibrium welfare measures together these observations provide a framework for decomposing the structural identification of non market values the new framework allows analysts to explain how their modeling assumptions influence estimates for benefits and costs this addresses federal guidelines for quantifying uncertainty in the modeling assumptions which enter benefit cost analysis the framework is demonstrated by decomposing estimates of the mwtp for air quality

health care reform or more affordable health care this article investigates the impact on the u s economy of making health care more affordable we compare health care cost reductions with the patient protection and affordable care act aca using a rich life cycle general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents we evaluate a wide range of cost reductions ranging from 0 64 realistic and feasible to 29 5 equivalence with oecd our results show that the aca is more effective in reducing uninsured population than all cost reductions considered this result holds throughout the life cycle and for the most fragile part of the population the poorest the less educated and those with bad health realistic and feasible cost reductions are less welfare improving than the aca the increase of welfare induced by the reform is around 7 8 times higher than the increase provided by cost reductions besides the poorer are more benefited than the richer after the reform while the opposite occurs after cost reductions finally to obtain the same welfare increase of the aca medical costs have to decrease by 5 21 a very hard task these results provide support for the aca against opponents who might present cost reductions as alternatives

the enduring impact of the american dust bowl short and long run adjustments to environmental catastrophe the 1930 s american dust bowl was an environmental catastrophe that greatly eroded sections of the plains analyzing new data collected to identify low medium and high erosion counties the dust bowl is estimated to have immediately substantially and persistently reduced agricultural land values and revenues during the depression and through at least the 1950 s there was limited reallocation of farmland from activities that became relatively less productive agricultural adjustments such as reallocating land from crops to livestock recovered only 14 to 28 of the initial agricultural cost the economy adjusted predominately through migration rather than through capital inows and increased industry

medical care costs how much welfare loss hardly a week goes by without a front page newspaper article on rising health care costs and the uninsured in this article i focus mainly on costs arguing that the issue has been somewhat misconceived while the level of medical care spending in the u s is a cause for concern the welfare losses associated with rises in that level of spending may not be as large as the public rhetoric can make them seem in fact cost containment may not be as urgent as is widely supposed and some proposed cost containment policies may result in welfare losses for the insured and even increase the number of uninsured

interjurisdictional housing prices in locational equilibrium abstract in this study we discuss how to construct interjurisdictional housing price indexes that are consistent with locational equilibrium theory in theoretical models housing is assumed to be homogeneous which provides problems in empirical analysis we provide conditions that allow us to treat heterogeneous housing as if it were homogeneous the same conditions that allow us to develop a quantity index for housing also imply that we can estimate interjurisdictional housing price indexes using hedonic price regressions locational equilibrium models impose a number of restrictions regarding the co movement of housing price indexes local public goods and mean income levels we propose to use these properties of locational equilibrium models to evaluate the different price index estimates we estimate a variety of price indexes using a unique panel data set of housing transactions in southern california our empirical results by and large support our approach

stated and revealed preferences for organic and cloned milk combining choice experiment and scanner data the u s food and drug administration s recent announcement that milk from cloned cows is as safe to drink as that from conventionally bred cows prompted interest among farmers food retailers and regulators in the market impacts of the introduction of milk from clones because milk from cloned animals is not currently labeled in the market we utilized a stated preference experiment to determine consumer preferences for the attribute but also sought to determine whether the survey based choices were consistent with people s revealed preferences given by scanner data our analysis indicates that a pooled model combining stated and revealed preference data exhibits overall better out of sample prediction performance than either data set used alone results from the pooled model indicate that consumers are willing to pay large premiums to avoid milk from cloned cows an amount that is over three times that for organic or rbst free milk the results are used to calculate the value of a mandatory labeling program

how property markets determine welfare outcomes an equilibrium sorting model analysis of local environmental interventions this paper examines the pivotal role played by property markets in determining the magnitude and distribution of welfare changes resulting from localised environmental change we address that issue using an equilibrium sorting model esm calibrated by way of example to the circumstances of a road infrastructure project in the english town of polegate previous esm research has tended to assume that all households rent property from a fixed property stock the narrative that arises from those models concerns environmental gentrification wherein access to environmentally improved locations is appropriated by the relatively wealthy through their ability to out compete the less wealthy in the rental property market our research shows that to be only part of a much more complex story we develop a model that extends the sophistication with which esms replicate property market dynamics allowing for households to choose whether to rent or purchase their home and introducing greater realism into housing supply responses to changing market conditions our research shows that property markets redistribute welfare gains across the population in complex ways in which tenure choice and housing supply constraints play central roles

multimarket analysis of agricultural price policies in an operational context the case of cyprus this article presents a method of analysis of agricultural price policies its basic features are i the incorporation of important supply and demand substitution possibilities ii a flexible structure which can account for institutional features of the agricultural sector and its relationships with the rest of the economy and iii a focused policy oriented approach an application to cyprus is presented which highlights the differences between this approach and analyses of single markets the method incorporates supporting software on personal computers with the longer term objective of developing this type of approach as a standard tool in pricing policy analysis

perceptions versus objective measures of environmental quality in combined revealed and stated preference models of environmental valuation abstract this study examines perceptions and objective attribute measures in discrete choice models of recreation site choice behavior these forms of attribute measurement are examined in individual and combined revealed preference stated preference models our results suggest that the model based on perceptions slightly outperforms the models based on objective attribute measures however issues such as the definition of the choice set and the measurement of welfare present significant challenges when using perceptions data

flood insurance wealth redistribution and urban property values abstract this paper examines the economics of the wealth transfer created by the national flood insurance program nfip by its very nature nfip is unique in that it subsidizes existing homeowners but not new construction thus for comparable properties the gain captured by existing homeowners is the difference between selling prices of equivalent qualified and nonqualified properties using standard hedonic pricing models we empirically test the impact of subsidized and nonsubsidized flood insurance on property values

health insurance reform the impact of a medicare buy in abstract the steady state general equilibrium and welfare consequences of a medicare buy in program optional for those aged 55 64 is evaluated in a calibrated life cycle economy with incomplete markets incomplete markets and adverse selection create a potential welfare improving role for health insurance reform we find that adverse selection eliminates any market for a medicare buy in if it is offered as an unsubsidized option to individual private health insurance the subsidy needed to bring the number of uninsured to less than 5 percent of the target population could be financed by an increase in the labor income tax rate of just 0 03 0 18 percent depending on how the program is implemented

the impact of restaurant calorie labels on food choice results from a field experiment i introduction in 2009 americans spent 42 of their food dollars on meals away from home morrison mancino and variyam 2011 consumers choose to eat outside the home for a variety of reasons but there is mounting concern that this spending pattern will have a detrimental effect on americans diet and overall health todd mancino and lin 2010 estimated that for each additional meal eaten away from home consumers ate an additional 134 calories by their estimation the average person will gain two pounds each year just by eating out one meal a week not only does food away from home tend to be higher in calories its nutrient quality pales in comparison to meals prepared in the home todd mancino and lin 2010 the combined increases in eating away from home and u s obesity overweight rates have caught the attention of policymakers in an effort to help promote healthier food choices several cities counties and states have passed or are considering legislation which would require nutrition labeling on restaurant menus cspi 2010 with the passage of the 2010 healthcare bill a standardized menu labeling system will soon be required in chain restaurants and vending machines across the country the labeling guidelines currently being set by the food and drug administration fda will take precedence over local labeling laws although the specific guidelines have not been released they were expected to be released by the end of 2011 but have still not been finalized to date it is probable that chain restaurants those with 20 or more outlets will be required to provide 1 calorie information for all menu items on all menus menu boards food tags and drive throughs 2 additional nutrition information for all menu items available upon request and 3 a statement of the recommended daily caloric intake 2 000 calories day for the average individual however vending machines will only be required to post calorie counts for all items fda 2011 while the literature on menu labeling in restaurants is growing large gaps in knowledge remain this research was designed to fill many of these gaps by explicitly calculating the value of information voi present in two types of calorie labels using data collected from a field experiment in which restaurant diners were unaware of the ongoing study the innovativeness of our approach can be seen by briefly surveying the existing literature on the topic past research on the effectiveness of nutrition labeling has been remarkably inconclusive both in grocery store see moorman ferraro and huber 2012 for a discussion and restaurant settings some studies concluded that providing nutritional information on restaurant menus lowers caloric intake e g milich anderson and mills 1976 roberto et al 2010 wisdom downs and loewenstein 2010 yet other studies found that the information has no effect e g elbel et al 2009 finkelstein et al 2011 harnack et al 2008 mayer et al 1987 schwartz et al 2012 even among studies finding an effect the size of the effect tended to be small for example balfour et al 1996 and yamamoto et al 2005 found that only a small proportion of consumers 16 and 29 respectively changed their menu item selection when presented with nutrition information importantly no previous studies have provided an estimate of the economic value of nutritional information on restaurant menus which could be used in a cost benefit analysis one of the primary weaknesses of previous research relates to external validity in particular many of the previous studies were conducted in artificial settings where participants were aware of the on going research the earliest studies on restaurant menu labeling were not actually conducted in restaurants but in laboratory or cafeteria settings balfour et al 1996 cinciripini 1984 harnack et al 2008 mayer et al 1987 milich anderson and mills 1976 roberto et al

the role of asset testing in public health insurance reform abstract starting slowly with the 1996 welfare reform act and culminating in the 2010 affordable care act means tested public health insurance eligibility expanded to include adults in low income families regardless of their asset holdings this paper quantifies the effects of these eligibility expansions within the context of the 2010 affordable care act i construct a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with indivisible labor supply expanded to include an endogenous household choice of health insurance coverage and calibrate it to u s data i establish that changes in the distribution of labor and welfare associated with removal of asset testing are driven by exit of high productivity and high wealth households from the labor market i then expand my analysis to the 2010 affordable care act to demonstrate that removal of asset testing is critical to the obtained results even when combined with other provisions of the act finally i find that a simple asset test for eligibility of health insurance transfers undoes the distortion to the household labor supply decision among high productivity types these results are robust to the introduction of employer premium contributions an independent health insurance market and idiosyncratic shocks to eligibility for employment based health insurance

housing market capitalization of energy saving durable good investments energy conservation in the residential sector depends in large measure upon the willingness of builders and homeowners to invest in the durable goods which result in an energy efficient house since these durable goods generally become attached permanently to the dwelling unit and since ownership of the unit is likely to change within the expected lifetime of the installed equipment the incentive to invest in conservation measures depends upon the efficiency of the housing market in capitalizing the financial benefits of future fuel savings this paper examines housing market efficiency in this regard by first estimating an hedonic price index with the annual fuel bill included as an explicit attribute of the structure then from the estimated hedonic price of a one dollar reduction in annual fuel costs and assumed fuel price escalation rates and remaining lifetimes of the equipment implicit housing market discount rates are calculated the relatively low estimated discount rates indicate that the housing market performs efficiently in capitalizing future fuel savings

food subsidies and exchange rate distortions in mozambique abstract in response to acute food shortages in mozambique induced by civil war drought and policies that favoured state farms and restricted private trade the government introduced a food rationing system in the two largest cities maputo and beira the primary function was to assure an equitable distribution of the limited food available but it has evolved into an untargeted income support programme as the crisis that led to its inception has abated this article emphasizes the need to transform the subsidy which at present is financed implicitly through exchange rate distortions into an explicit and targeted subsidy this would be consistent with the long term objectives of mozambique s economic recovery programme in which liberalization of commodity markets and exchange rate realignment are key policy reforms

estimating the demand for the characteristics of housing a hstract estimates of the demand for the characteristics contained in a differentiated product such as housing can be based on hedonic regressions however previous studies have not dealt with several potential problems in such estimation a more appropriate framework for the estimation is provided in this paper also data from a number of cities are used to eliminate the identification problem and the endogeneity of the marginal prices derived from non linear hedonic equations is considered in the estimation the results on own and cross price elasticities expenditure elasticities and the effects of socio economic vafiables accord well with expectations

comparing consumer preferences for color and nutritional quality in maize application of a semi double bound logistic model on urban consumers in kenya consumer preferences for white maize in east and southern africa concerns developers of maize biofortified with provitamin a carotenoids since carotenoids impart a yellow or orange coloration urban consumers willingness to pay wtp for yellow maize was estimated using a semi double bounded logistic model based on a survey of 600 maize consumers in nairobi kenya at posho mills kiosks and supermarkets consumers showed a strong preference for white maize only a minority would buy yellow maize at the same price as white maize and fewer consumers in the posho mills 24 and kiosks 19 than in the supermarkets 34 would do so on average consumers need a price discount of 37 to accept yellow maize this discount was less at the posho mills 35 and kiosks 37 than in the supermarkets 48 most respondents 76 were aware of the existence of fortified meal and the generally showed an interest the average premium for fortified maize was much less than the discount for yellow 5 9 for those aware and 7 4 for those unaware consumer preferences were influenced by socioeconomic factors such as gender education income and ethnic background women have a stronger preference for both white maize and fortified maize than men and consumers with more education have a stronger preference for white income decreases the wtp for yellow maize as well as the price elasticity but increases the wtp for fortified maize consumers originating from western kenya have a lower preference for white while those from central kenya had a stronger preference for fortified maize

the effects of health insurance and self insurance on retirement behavior this paper provides an empirical analysis of the effects of employer provided health insurance medicare and social security on retirement behavior using data from the health and retirement study we estimate a dynamic programming model of retirement that accounts for both saving and uncertain medical expenses our results suggest that medicare is important for understanding retirement behavior and that uncertainty and saving are both important for understanding the labor supply responses to medicare half the value placed by a typical worker on his employer provided health insurance is the value of reduced medical expense risk raising the medicare eligibility age from 65 to 67 leads individuals to work an additional 0 074 years over ages 60 69 in comparison eliminating 2 years worth of social security benefits increases years of work by 0 076 years

estimation and welfare calculations in a generalized corner solution model with an application to recreation demand the kuhn tucker model of wales and woodland 1983 provides a utility theoretic framework for estimating preferences over commodities for which individuals choose not to consume one or more of the goods due to the complexity of the model however there have been few applications in the literature and little attention has been paid to the problems of welfare analysis within the kuhn tucker framework this paper provides an application of the model to the problem of recreation demand in addition we develop and apply a methodology for estimating compensating variation relying on monte carlo integration to derive expected welfare changes

targeting of food aid in rural ethiopia chronic need or inertia abstract this paper quantifies the factors underlying the allocations of food aid by the ethiopian government together with local and international non governmental organizations ngos both across rural regions and to households within regions we focus on reduced form specifications in which as little structure as possible is put on the decision rules because so little is known about these rules and their implementation nationally representative rural household data from ethiopia collected in 1996 are used the paper determines the extent to which food aid both free distribution and food for work is targeted to poor households and communities we also demonstrate that food aid allocations display a large degree of spatial continuity over time and are concentrated in areas that at least during the time of the survey are not the poorest the paper attempts to disentangle two competing explanations for the apparent spatial rigidity of food aid allocations that the recipient areas are chronically needy or that needs shift geographically from 1 year to the next but that fixed costs in setting up operations and in the process of identifying needs lead to a degree of inertia in the location of food aid programs over time we conclude that the evidence best fits the inertia explanation

how robust is a poverty profile comparison of poverty such as when poverty is greatest typically matter far more for policy choices than do aggregate measures of poverty such as how many people are deemed poor the authors examine alternative methods for constructing poverty profiles focusing on their internal consistency and appropriateness for guiding policy none is perfect but some methods appear to be preferable to others when the aim is to inform policies for fighting absolute consumption poverty a case study on indonesia reveals that the country s regional and sectoral poverty profile is highly sensitive to some aspects of measurement but quite robust to others

estimating consumer willingness to pay for food quality with experimental auctions the case of yellow versus fortified maize meal in kenya biofortification of maize with provitamin a carotenoids is a new approach to the alleviation of vitamin a deficiencies in africa unfortunately these varieties are yellow or orange while consumers generally prefer white consumer willingness to pay for yellow and fortified maize was compared in experimental auctions in three regions in kenya the premium that consumers are willing pay for fortified maize 24 was higher than the discount they require to buy yellow maize 11 and in one zone consumers prefer yellow yellow color is therefore not an impossible obstacle for biofortified maize although it would clearly be easier to introduce this maize first in regions where yellow maize is currently grown

retirement wealth and lifetime earnings this article argues that a satisfactory theory of wealth inequality should account not only for the marginal distribution of wealth but also for the joint distribution of wealth and earnings the article describes the joint distribution of retirement wealth and lifetime earnings in the panel study of income dynamics it then evaluates the ability of a stochastic life cycle model to account for key features of this distribution the life cycle model fails to account for three key features of the data 1 the correlation between lifetime earnings and retirement wealth is too high 2 the wealth gaps between earnings rich and earnings poor households are too large 3 wealth inequality among households with similar lifetime earnings is too small models in which households differ in rates of return or time preferences account much better for the joint distribution of retirement wealth and lifetime earnings

general equilibrium benefits for environmental improvements projected ozone reductions under epa s prospective analysis for the los angeles air basin abstract this research demonstrates how locational equilibrium models can be used for benefit measurement with the detail required to match epa s benefit analysis for the first prospective analysis using the projected changes in ozone concentrations for 2000 and 2010 together with the sieg et al int econ rev forthcoming estimates for household preferences for housing education and air quality this paper measures general equilibrium willingness to pay for the policy scenarios developed for the prospective study as they relate to households in the los angeles area benefits are evaluated taking account at the household level of initial air quality conditions relocation based on changes in ozone and price changes the framework generalizes the partial equilibrium general equilibrium comparisons available with conventional computable general equilibrium and property capitalization models estimated general equilibrium gains from the policy range from 33 to 2400 annually at a household level in 1990 dollars

valuing open space in a residential sorting model of the twin cities abstract we present an analysis of how open space amenities affect residential location choices using a horizontal sorting model to estimate household preferences for open space to parameterize the model a new and rich dataset spanning 17 years of home sales in the seven county twin cities area of minnesota was assembled heterogeneity across types of open space and across households is shown to be a critical determinant of the welfare impacts of open space conservation our general equilibrium simulations allow housing prices to re equilibrate in response to policy induced demand shifts demonstrating that as the scale of intervention becomes larger general equilibrium and partial equilibrium welfare measures increasingly diverge finally we find that the spatial structure of policy is an important component of policy design suggesting open space policy should be place specific in its design and implementation

causal parameters and policy analysis in economics a twentieth century retrospective the major contributions of twentieth century econometrics to knowledge were the definition of causal parameters within well defined economic models in which agents are constrained by resources and markets and causes are interrelated the analysis of what is required to recover causal parameters from data the identification problem and clarification of the role of causal parameters in policy evaluation and in forecasting the effects of policies never previously experienced this paper summarizes the development of these ideas by the cowles commission the response to their work by structural econometricians and var econometricians and the response to structural and var econometrics by calibrators advocates of natural and social experiments and by nonparametric econometricians and statisticians this paper considers the definition and identification of causal parameters in economics and their role in econometric policy analysis it assesses different research programs designed to recover causal parameters from data at the beginning of this century economic theory was mainly intuitive and empirical support for it was largely anecdotal at the end of the century economics has a rich array of formal models and a high quality database empirical regularities motivate theory in many areas of economics and data are routinely used to test theory many economic theories have been developed as measurement frameworks to suggest what data should be collected and how they should be interpreted econometric theory was developed to analyze and interpret economic data most econometric theory adapts methods originally developed in statistics the major exception to this rule is the econometric analysis of the identification problem and the companion analyses of structural equations causality and economic policy evaluation although an economist did not invent the phrase correlation does not imply causation 1 economists clari

technology growth and expenditure growth in health care in the united states health care technology has contributed to rising survival rates yet health care spending relative to gdp has also grown more rapidly than in any other country we develop a model of patient demand and supplier behavior to explain these parallel trends in technology growth and cost growth we show that health care productivity depends on the heterogeneity of treatment effects across patients the shape of the health production function and the cost structure of procedures such as mris with high fixed costs and low marginal costs the model implies a typology of medical technology productivity i highly cost effective home run innovations with little chance of overuse such as anti retroviral therapy for hiv ii treatments highly effective for some but not for all e g stents and iii gray area treatments with uncertain clinical value such as icu days among chronically ill patients not surprisingly countries adopting category i and effective category ii treatments gain the greatest health improvements while countries adopting ineffective category ii and category iii treatments experience the most rapid cost growth ultimately economic and political resistance in the u s to ever rising tax rates will slow cost growth with uncertain effects on technology growth

the effects of health wealth and wages on labour supply and retirement behaviour this paper estimates a life cycle model of labour supply retirement and savings behaviour in which future health status and wages are uncertain individuals face a fixed cost of work and cannot borrow against future labour pension or social security income the method of simulated moments is used to match the life cycle profiles of labour force participation hours worked and assets that are estimated from the data to those that are generated by the model the model establishes that the tax structure of the social security system and pensions are key determinants of the high observed job exit rates at ages 62 and 65 removing the tax wedge embedded in the social security earnings test for individuals aged 65 and older would delay job exit by almost one year by contrast social security benefit levels health and borrowing constraints are less important determinants of job exit at older ages for example reducing social security benefits by 20 would cause workers to delay exit from the labour force by only three months

the spatial extent of water quality benefits in urban housing markets water quality regulation continues to be controversial as demonstrated by recent litigation between the u s environmental protection agency and the state of florida over nutrient standards while the costs of standards are usually known benefits may be diverse and difficult to identify this study investigates the effects of enhanced water quality on both waterfront and nonwaterfront property prices using hedonic models within an urban market findings indicate 1 the value of increased water quality depends upon the property s location and proximity to waterfront and the surface area of the water body and 2 aggregate benefits to nonwaterfront homes may dominate those realized by waterfront homeowners

the value of life and the rise in health spending over the past half century americans spent a rising share of total economic resources on health and enjoyed substantially longer lives as a result debate on health policy often focuses on limiting the growth of health spending we investigate an issue central to this debate is the growth of health spending a rational response to changing economic conditions notably the growth of income per person we develop a model based on standard economic assumptions and argue that this is indeed the case standard preferences of the kind used widely in economics to study consumption asset pricing and labor supply imply that health spending is a superior good with an income elasticity well above one as people get richer and consumption rises the marginal utility of consumption falls rapidly spending on health to extend life allows individuals to purchase additional periods of utility the marginal utility of life extension does not decline as a result the optimal composition of total spending shifts toward health and the health share grows along with income in projections based on the quantitative analysis of our model the optimal health share of spending seems likely to exceed 30 percent by the middle of the century

poverty alleviation in mozambique a multi market analysis of the role of food aid abstract the use of food aid in poverty alleviation programs has been hampered by two problems the inability to target to households in need and the disincentive effects on agriculture in this paper we present econometric estimates of in almost ideal demand system aids for households in maputo mozambique and develop a multi market model to show that in maputo imported yellow maize is not only self targeting but that owing to a combination of the low cross price elasticity with locally produced staples particularly white maize and cross border trade in food products the disincentive effects on domestic agriculture have been negligible

estimating housing demand with an application to explaining racial segregation in cities we present a three stage nonparametric estimation procedure to recover willingness to pay for housing attributes in the first stage we estimate a nonparametric hedonic home price function in the second stage we recover each consumer s taste parameters for product characteristics using first order conditions for utility maximization finally in the third stage we estimate the distribution of household tastes as a function of household demographics as an application of our methods we compare alternative explanations for why blacks choose to live in center cities while whites suburbanize

elasticities in aids models in the literature a variety of approaches have been used to calculate demand elasticities in almost ideal demand system aids models of demand it is common to estimate the linear approximate almost ideal demand system la aids instead of the aids when the la aids is estimated all of the previously reported approaches to compute elasticities are theoretically incorrect this paper presents correct formulas for la aids elasticities and illustrates the potential errors from using incorrect computing the almost ideal demand system aids of deaton and muellbauer 1980a b has become popular in recent years anderson and blundell blanciforti and green 1983a b blanciforti green and king chalfant eales and unnevehr fujii khaled and mak fulponi heien and willett murray parsons ray a variety of approaches to computing elasticities has been used and some of the approaches may lead to significant errors this paper clarifies the differences between alternative approaches to estimating demand elasticities in aids models

cost benefit analyses versus referenda we consider a planner who chooses between two public policies and ask whether a referendum or a cost benefit analysis leads to higher welfare we find that a referendum leads to higher welfare than a cost benefit analysis in a common value environment cost benefit analysis is better in a private value environment

a model of constructing the poverty line abstract this paper proposes a model which defines the poverty line as that level of expenditure at which all caloric and nutrient shortfalls are eliminated where requirements with respect to these are tailored to the age sex occupation characteristics of each household the methodology avoids all the allegations of subjectivity and conceptual circularity levelled against the traditional methods an application of the model to the nss data for indian punjab demonstrates the computational simplicity and easy identifiability of the poverty line

the role of safety nets during the process of economic growth discussion what should governments and donors be trying to accomplish with resources devoted to safety nets safety nets are programs that protect peoples livelihood in the face of transitory or chronic poverty e g direct food distribution food for work and cash for work in recent years there have been greater attempts to link relief to development by creating investments that support long run growth in the process of providing a safety net to the poor in the short run

the paper work of medicine understanding international medical costs this paper draws on international evidence on medical spending to examine what the united states can learn about making its healthcare system more efficient we focus primarily on understanding contemporaneous differences in the level of spending generally from the 2000s medical spending differs across countries either because the price of services differs for example a coronary bypass surgery operation may cost more in the united states than in other countries or because people receive more services in some countries than in others for example more bypass surgery operations within the price category there are two further issues whether factors earn different returns across countries and whether more clinical or administrative personnel are required to deliver the same care in different countries we first present the results of a decomposition of healthcare spending along these lines in the united states and in canada we then delve into each component in more detail administrative costs factor prices and the provision of care received bringing in a broader range of international evidence when possible finally we touch upon the organization of primary and chronic disease care and discuss possible gains in that area

preferred policies when there is a concern for probability of adoption abstract a theory of effective policy choice is developed that recognizes that the probability that a policy is adopted depends on who gains from it who loses and by how much ten pieces of recent environmental legislation are assessed to see how mechanisms such as coupling with other legislation phased implementation and the manipulation of uncertainty can spread benefits and costs several optimizing models are presented that explicitly incorporate the probability of adoption

estimating equilibrium models of sorting across locations while there is growing interest in measuring the size and scope of local spillovers it is well understood that such spillovers cannot be distinguished from unobservable local attributes using solely the observed location decisions of individuals or firms we propose an empirical strategy for recovering estimates of spillovers in the presence of unobserved local attributes for a broadly applicable class of equilibrium sorting models our approach relies on an iv strategy derived from the internal logic of the sorting model itself we show practically how the strategy is implemented provide intuition for our instruments discuss the role of effective choice set variation in identifying the model and carry out a series of monte carlo simulations to demonstrate performance in small samples

exploring mortgage interest deduction reforms an equilibrium sorting model with endogenous tenure choice in most equilibrium sorting models esms of residential choice across neighborhoods the question of whether households rent or buy their home is either ignored or else tenure status is treated as exogenous of course tenure status is not exogenous and households tenure choices may have important public policy implications particularly since higher levels of homeownership have been shown to correlate strongly with various indicators of improved neighborhood quality indeed numerous policies including that of mortgage interest deduction mid have been implemented with the express purpose of promoting homeownership this paper presents an esm with simultaneous rental and purchase markets in which tenure choice is endogenized and neighborhood quality is partly determined by neighborhood composition the public policy relevance of the model is shown through a calibration exercise for boston massachusetts which explores the impacts of various reforms to the mid policy the simulations confirm some of the arguments made about reforming mid but also demonstrate how the complex patterns of behavioral change induced by policy reform can lead to unanticipated effects the results suggest that it may be possible to reform mid while maintaining the prevailing rates of homeownership and reducing the federal budget deficit

disaster on the horizon the price effect of sea level rise abstract homes exposed to sea level rise slr sell for approximately 7 less than observably equivalent unexposed properties equidistant from the beach this discount has grown over time and is driven by sophisticated buyers and communities worried about global warming consistent with causal identification of long horizon slr costs we find no relation between slr exposure and rental rates and a 4 discount among properties not projected to be flooded for almost a century our findings contribute to the literature on the pricing of long run risky cash flows and provide insights for optimal climate change policy

spatial preference heterogeneity in forest recreation abstract in this study we analyze the preferences for recreational use of forests in lorraine northeastern france applying stated preference data our approach allows us to estimate individual specific preferences for recreational use of different forest types these estimates are used in a second stage of the analysis where we test whether preferences depend on access to recreation sites we find that there is significant preference heterogeneity with respect to most forest attributes the spatial analysis shows that preferences for forests with parking and picnic facilities are correlated with having access to such forests while for the other attributes considered dominant tree species trekking paths and presence of lake and rivers we find no correlation between stated preferences and accessibility this implies that the problem of endogenous distances in the travel cost method parsons 1991 may be present in the estimation of welfare economic values for parking and picnic facilities in the analyzed model the results underline the importance of considering spatial heterogeneity of preferences carrying out economic valuation of spatial delineated environmental goods and that the spatial variation in willingness to pay for such goods is not only explained by the users transport costs of accessing the sites

food aid domestic policy and food security contrasting experiences from south asia and sub saharan africa abstract food aid both for short term emergency relief and as program food aid that helps address medium term food deficits is often a major component of food security strategies in developing countries this study reviews the experience with food aid of four major recipients of food aid india bangladesh ethiopia and zambia regarding food production trade markets consumption and safety nets as well as the policy responses to food emergencies the widely varying experiences of the study countries suggest that food aid that supports building of production and market enhancing infrastructure is timed to avoid adverse price effects on producers and is targeted to food insecure households can play a positive role in enhancing food security however food aid is not the only or in many cases the most efficient means of addressing food insecurity in many cases private markets can more effectively address shortfalls in food availability and cash transfers may be a viable alternative to food transfers in kind

narrow choice sets in a random utility model of recreation demand we consider the implications of narrow choice sets on welfare estimation in a random utility model of recreation demand we hypothesize that careful formulation of the choice set focusing on the sites of policy interest and their closest substitutes will give reasonably accurate welfare estimates we use nearby sites as close substitutes and treat more distant sites as aggregate alternatives in our application to fishing in maine we find that the welfare estimates are rather sensitive to narrowing choice sets in this manner the sensitivity largely tracts variation in the estimated travel cost coefficient across the different models considered

a discrete choice equilibrium approach to valuing large environmental changes abstract this study develops a discrete choice locational equilibrium model to evaluate the benefits of the air quality improvements that occurred in the los angeles area following the 1990 clean air act amendments caaa the discrete choice equilibrium approach accounts for the fact that air quality improvements brought about by the 1990 caaa will change housing choices and prices the study also provides new evidence for the distributional welfare impacts of the 1990 caaa in the los angeles area findings suggest that the air quality improvements that occurred in the los angeles area between 1990 and 2000 provided substantial general equilibrium benefits to households the analysis reveals noticeable differences between partial and general equilibrium welfare gains demonstrating that ignoring equilibrium effects will likely misrepresent the benefits of large environmental changes in addition we find that the equilibrium welfare impacts of the 1990 caaa in the los angeles area varied significantly across income groups