politically feasible and equitable adjustment some alternatives for ecuador abstract how can a government beholden to agroexporting interests survive while carrying out a stabilization program inimical to other powerful interests how can it reduce the social costs of the program the authors review the ecuadorian experience with these dilemmas and build a real financial cge model to explore alternative approaches to stabilization made necessary by both a reduction in public foreign borrowing and a fall in world oil prices the approaches considered include exchange rate devaluation fiscal austerity directed at current or investment spending and reduced growth of money supply each approach is assessed for its effects on gdp growth on rural and urban poverty and for its political sustainability assessed by changes in utility for politically dominant rural and urban interests the results show that cutting current spending is best for restoring growth and protecting the rural poor but is politically untenable making this approach politically feasible requires complementary economic reforms to increase the flexibility of the economy and raise the share of public investment going to agriculture social programs allowing some leakages in antipoverty transfers toward politically essential nonpoor and political campaigns to increase the relative autonomy of the state lower the social rate of discount whereby the public assesses the outcome of policy and induce the public to compare policy outcomes against the counterfactual scenario of no intervention instead of pre crisis living standards

coalitional stability of multi party systems evidence from poland function form game that represents payoffs of electoral coalitions in a multi party system three empirical hypotheses are formulated under the assumption that seat maximizing parties modify coalitional structures to extract gains from coalescing the hypotheses say that party systems under stable voter preferences and electoral law tend to stability with respect to splits and coalescing the partition function is estimated for various coalitional structures for the polish party system with simulation based on district level election results and survey data the estimates show that the polish party system is split stable while the opportunities for gains from coalitions on the right were exhausted between the years of 1993 and 1997 some opportunities for such gains emerged on the left introduction

the long term effect of renewable electricity on employment in the united kingdom abstract assessment of the employment impact of renewable electricity technologies is generally implemented through either complex and data intensive methods such as computable general equilibrium models or simplistic approaches normally focused on specific energy generation technologies such as employment factors in contrast this article proposes a transparent and easily reproducible econometric methodology based on the vector error correction model that uses aggregated and widely available data the model is applied to the power generation sector in the united kingdom using annual data from 1990 onwards and provides evidence that the long term employment impact of renewable technologies is much higher than the impact arising from deploying nuclear or natural gas technologies the impulse response function analysis indicates that a permanent 1 gigawatt hours increase in annual electricity supply generated by renewable technologies creates 3 5 jobs in the long term period finally this study derives the implications of the findings in the context of decarbonisation scenarios for the power sector in the united kingdom and assesses the extent to which decarbonisation pathways based on renewable electricity contribute to stimulating employment in the generation sector

party systems and electoral volatility in latin america a test of economic institutional and structural explanations three different theoretical explanations are tested for the exceptionally high level of electoral volatility found in contemporary latin america economic voting institutional characteristics of political regimes and party systems and the structure and organization of class cleavages a pooled cross sectional time series regression analysis is conducted on 58 congressional elections and 43 presidential elections in 16 latin american countries during the 1980s and 1990s institutional variables have the most consistent effect on volatility while the influence of economic performance is heavily contingent upon the type of election and whether the dependent variable is operationalized as incumbent vote change or aggregate electoral volatility the results demonstrate that electoral volatility is a function of short term economic perturbations the institutional fragilities of both democratic regimes and party systems and relatively fluid cleavage structures

agricultural dis incentives and food security is there a link using the world bank database distortions to agricultural incentives this paper analyzes the impact that agricultural dis incentives have on food security for a wide sample of countries over the 1990 2010 period we adopt a continuous treatment approach applying generalized propensity score matching to reduce potential biases stemming from differences in observed country characteristics the results provide strong evidence of self selection and heterogeneous food security impacts at different levels of policy intensity estimates of the dose response functions show that both discrimination against agriculture and large support for it lead to poor performance in the availability access and utilization dimensions of food security

generalizing the bayesian vector autoregression approach for regional interindustry employment forecasting the bayesian vector autoregression bvar employment forecasting approach is generalized using data for the state of georgia this study advances previous regional bvar approaches by a incorporating regional input output coefficients instead of national coefficients b using the coefficients both to specify the prior means in one model and to weight the variances of a minnesota type prior in a second model and c including final demand effects and links to national and world economies out of sample forecasts produced by the generalized bvar models are compared to forecasts produced from an autoregressive model an unconstrained var model and a minnesota bvar model

rhetoric on the economy have european parties changed their economic messages abstractthis study analyses the determinants of dispersion of economic issue mentions in european party manifestos we examined three main economic domains governmental control of the economy free market capitalism and support for the welfare state as consequences of globalization forces economic conditions partisanship and electoral turnout employing aggregate level comparative manifesto project cmp data from legislative elections in 15 european countries from 1970 to 2010 we confirm that parties hold a common view of the salience of economic control of the state as a consequence of globalization pressure and economic growth levels partisanship of the cabinets regardless of the political orientation counteracted issue salience concentration in the welfare domain government size favoured dispersion in the free market realm our results do not indicate clear homogenization of parties economic messages in elections over the last 40 years

sit down at the ball game how trade barriers make the world less food secure this paper analyses the impacts of trade policy responses to rising world food prices by carrying out a series of stylised experiments in the wheat market using a world trade model gtap the sequence of events that is modelled comprises a negative wheat supply shock and subsequent implementation of an export tax by a major net exporter and a reduction in import tariffs by a small importer the effects of trade policy responses are contrasted with those of full liberalisation of the wheat market at the core are the opposite effects on producers and consumers as well as the terms of trade and trade tax revenue effects food security is shown to depend crucially on changes in prices but also in incomes that are associated with changes in factor returns the results reveal that major net exporters are generally better off when implementing export taxes for food security purposes large exporting countries export price instability causing world food prices to rise further net importing countries lose out and have limited leeway to reduce tariffs or subsidise imports liberalising wheat trade mitigates rising prices and contributes to food security but to the detriment of production in africa and asia making them more dependent on and vulnerable to changes in the world market concerted action at the wto forum is required notably clarifying and sharpening the rules regarding export measures

modeling agricultural growth multipliers agriculture s potential as an engine of third world growth depends in large part on the size of the production and consumption linkages it stimulates in rural regions current estimates of agricultural growth multipliers within rural regions vary widely not only because economic structures differ across regions but also because the array of fixed price models most commonly used embody widely differing basic assumptions among fixed price models the semi input output formulation projects the most plausible multipliers but even they overstate the magnitude of growth multipliers by 10 to 25 according to the price endogenous model developed here

trade liberalization and local labor market adjustment in south africa abstract despite a large literature analyzing trade liberalization in developing countries little evidence exists around its effects in sub saharan african economies characterized by high levels of baseline unemployment and weak manufacturing sectors using a local labor market approach we investigate the causal effects of tariff reforms implemented in south africa between 1994 and 2004 on labor market outcomes at the individual level more specifically we construct a district level measure of exposure to tariff reductions equal to a weighted average of industry tariffs using baseline industry shares as weights and estimate the effect of this shock on local economies we find that workers in districts facing larger tariff reductions experience a significant decline in both formal and informal employment in the tradable sector driven primarily by a decline in manufacturing employment relative to workers in districts less exposed to these reductions there is no evidence of any significant effect on wages for those who remain employed however displaced workers do not show any evidence of transitions into other sectors or migration to less affected regions rather they are more likely to become discouraged workers or exit the labor force entirely and show an increased probability of accessing government transfers

policy and the dynamics of political competition informed discussions of political competition by journalists pundits novelists country specialists or indeed practicing politicians usually describe a system in perpetual motion perpetual motion is seen as a normal state of affairs not a manifestation of chaotic instability and it is usually seen as having an endogenous dynamic what the actors do at cycle c of the political process feeds back to affect the entire process at cycle c 1 these informed discussions thus see politics as a complex dynamic system evolving under its own steam a system unlikely to reach steady state in stark contrast mainstream models of political competition are usually static with key model parameters and rules of interaction fixed exogenously although static models do not necessarily imply equilibrium almost invariably the core intellectual approach is to specify a model and solve for equilibrium authors of such models are typically driven by what cederman describes as a metaphysical conviction that equilibria are always out there waiting to be discovered a conviction that can blind the analyst to the possibility of adjustments never settling cederman 1997 34 35 but if common sense tells us party competition is a complex dynamic process then it also tells us party competition may never achieve equilibrium this paper addresses the striking disjuncture between the static nature of most formal models of party competition and the dynamic way in which informed observers who hardly ever talk about politics in terms of equilibrium think about the political process while many theorists would willingly concede in general terms that real political competition is a complex dynamic process the hard question concerns how to model this in a way that is both theoretically tractable and substantively plausible in what follows i set out

commuting migration and local employment elasticities many changes in the economic environment are local including policy changes and infrastructure investments the effect of these changes depends crucially on the ability of factors to move in response therefore a key object of interest for policy evaluation and design is the elasticity of local employment to these changes in the economic environment we develop a quantitative general equilibrium model that incorporates spatial linkages between locations in goods markets trade and factor markets commuting and migration we find substantial heterogeneity across locations in local employment elasticities we show that this heterogeneity can be well explained with theoretically motivated measures of commuting flows without taking into account this dependence estimates of the local employment elasticity for one location are not generalizable to other locations we also find that commuting flows and their importance cannot be accounted for with standard measures of size or wages at the county or commuting zone levels

communism federalism and ethnic minorities explaining party competition patterns in eastern europe scholarship on east european politics expects that party competition in the region is determined by various communist legacies juxtaposing state centric authoritarianism to a liberal market economy recent empirical evidence however uncovers significant variance of party competition patterns across east european countries to explain this variance this article argues that an interaction between communist institutional framework and partisan responses to ethnic minorities determines party competition structure in the region while experience with communist federalism determines partisan affinities with ethnic minorities tolerance or support for ethnic minorities leads the political actors associated with those minorities to general socially liberal positions consequently and contrary to received knowledge ethnic politics influence the ideological content of party competition and structure party systems in eastern europe

end use technology choice in the national energy modeling system nems an analysis of the residential and commercial building sectors abstract the national energy modeling system nems is arguably the most influential energy model in the united states the u s energy information administration uses nems to generate the federal government s annual long term forecast of national energy consumption and to evaluate prospective federal energy policies nems is considered such a standard tool that other models are calibrated to its forecasts in both government and academic practice as a result nems has a significant influence over expert opinions of plausible energy futures nems is a massively detailed model whose inner workings despite its prominence receive relatively scant critical attention this paper analyzes how nems projects energy demand in the residential and commercial sectors in particular we focus on the role of consumers preferences and financial constraints investigating how consumers choose appliances and other end use technologies we identify conceptual issues in the approach the model takes to the same question across both sectors running the model with a range of consumer preferences we estimate the extent to which this issue impacts projected consumption relative to the baseline model forecast for final energy demand in the year 2035 in the residential sector the impact ranges from a decrease of 0 73 quads 6 0 to an increase of 0 24 quads 2 0 in the commercial sector the impact ranges from a decrease of 1 0 quads 9 0 to an increase of 0 99 quads 9 0

grain price stabilization experiences in asia what have we learned abstract governments in most asian countries used grain price stabilization as a major policy instrument when they embarked on promoting the green revolution the art of public policy making is to know when to introduce government interventions and when to withdraw the common mistake is to forget the withdrawal part leading to unsustainably high costs a dilemma that most asian countries are confronted with today analyzing case studies of six asian countries which have tried to tackle the task in different ways with varying degrees of success eight key lessons can be learned from the more than three decades of food price stabilization in asia times have changed policies and public agencies that may have been appropriate 30 years ago are not optimal today private institutions have strengthened significantly or could be strengthened significantly and should be entrusted for many of the functions that parastatals or other government agencies have traditionally performed holding on to old practices delays reaping the benefits that changing current policies have to offer

modeling the interplay between sanitary and phytosanitary measures and tariff rate quotas under partial trade liberalization non tariff measures particularly sanitary and phytosanitary measures and tariff rate quotas are two critical policy barriers that impede agricultural trade unlike simple tariffs both measures contain non linear effects and binding conditions that make their treatment in modeling trade liberalization challenging in addition the coexistence of these measures carries important interactive effects that restrict trade this study investigates these joint effects by developing a conceptual framework that considers different partial liberalization scenarios our framework points to three cases that may arise a binding tariff rate quota non prohibitive sanitary and phytosanitary measure b non binding tariff rate quota non prohibitive sanitary and phytosanitary measure and c non binding tariff rate quota prohibitive sanitary and phytosanitary measure we then use a computable general equilibrium model to examine partial trade liberalization scenarios for these cases using the ongoing transatlantic trade and investment partnership negotiations as our motivation our simulations provide a more nuanced analysis of complex trade liberalization and demonstrate the importance of modeling the interplay between these different types of barriers

the intertemporal evolution of agriculture and labor over a rapid structural transformation lessons from vietnam abstract we combine nationally representative household and labor force survey data from 1992 to 2016 to provide a detailed description of rural labor market evolution and how it relates to the structural transformation of rural vietnam especially within the agricultural sector our study adds to the emerging literature on structural transformation in low income countries using micro level data and helps to answer several policy related questions we find limited employment creation potential of agriculture especially for youth rural urban real wage convergence has gone hand in hand with increased diversification of the rural economy into the non farm sector nationwide and rapid advances in educational attainment in all sectors and regions workforce minimum wage laws seem to have played no significant role in increasing agricultural wages this enhanced integration also manifests in steady attenuation of the longstanding inverse farm size yield relationship farming has remained securely household based and the family farmland distribution has remained largely unchanged small farm sizes have not obstructed mechanization nor the uptake of labor saving pesticides consistent with factor substitution induced by rising real wage rates as rural households rely more heavily on the labor market human capital accumulation rather than land endowments have become the key correlate of improvements in rural household well being

energy based economic development abstract the fields of economic development and energy policy and planning have converged in recent years to form an emerging discipline which we term energy based economic development ebed despite the significant amount of stimulus funds as well as state and local funding that are being allocated to ebed initiatives in the united states the emerging discipline has received scant attention in the energy policy and development literature the link between energy and economic development in the literature is still theoretical mostly focused on the need for and the potential benefits of ebed and rarely applied furthermore funding for ebed has outpaced understanding of the discipline development of rigorous technical approaches and meaningful ways to measure impact such information would not only help practitioners and policymakers more thoroughly understand the confines of the discipline and shape goals and approaches accordingly but also help researchers identify track and evaluate a variety of activities in the field with national and international attention focused on the convergence of these fields researchers and practitioners have a rare opportunity to develop and implement the tools necessary to evaluate and communicate the potentially broader impacts that ebed may hold for society if ways to leverage and sustain the injection of funds in this discipline are not identified the opportunity may end before we can achieve either energy policy or economic development goals in an attempt to respond to this need this analysis explores the connection between energy and economic development beginning with a review of the trends in each field and the goals that each seeks to achieve on the basis of this information we define the discipline of ebed review the existing literature on it and offer insights and perspectives on its emergence

export markets and labor allocation in a low income country we study the effects of a positive export shock on labor allocation between the informal microenterprise sector and the formal firm sector in a low income country the united states vietnam bilateral trade agreement led to large reductions in us tariffs on vietnamese exports we find that the share of manufacturing workers in vietnam in the formal sector increased by 5 percentage points in response to the us tariff reductions the reallocation was greater for workers in more internationally integrated provinces and for younger cohorts we estimate the gap in labor productivity within manufacturing across the informal and formal sectors this gap and the aggregate labor productivity gain from the export induced reallocation of workers across the two sectors are reduced when we account for worker heterogeneity measurement error and differences in labor intensity of production

export sectors and rural development the export base hypothesis is that a region s growth is led by export demand given perfectly elastic factor supplies it is a rationale for sector based rural development policies and it is formalized by input output models but it is contested by modern trade migration and growth theories and there is little research about its empirical relevance we investigate the hypothesis for contemporary u s rural development by estimating the influence of export sector employment on subsequent rural development outcomes the results reject the hypothesis that emphasizing traditional export employment results in rural growth reject the assumption of perfectly elastic factor supply and support alternative explanations copyright 2009 oxford university press

wheat markets food aid and food security in afghanistan abstract in afghanistan after two decades of civil strife and successive droughts from 1998 to 2002 large inflows of food aid distributed mainly to returning refugees and through food for work programs have helped offset production shortfalls of wheat the country s major staple at the same time private international trade from neighboring countries especially pakistan has also played a major role in augmenting wheat supply and stabilizing prices this paper presents an analysis of wheat prices and market flows in afghanistan based on results of surveys of wheat traders and millers and econometric analysis of price movements in major markets in afghanistan and pakistan in spite of food aid imports domestic prices were not lowered below import parity levels in most major afghan markets thus the price evidence suggests that large scale inflows of food aid which benefited the country by providing resources for targeted food for work and other programs did not have major price disincentive effects on domestic production at least through mid 2003 however following the 2003 bumper harvest the analysis suggests that continued food aid inflows may have depressed producer prices by as much as about 15 moreover given substantial prospects for rehabilitation of irrigation infrastructure there is ample scope for increasing domestic production of wheat and decreasing import demand so price disincentive effects of food aid remain a possibility in the future as well

empirical estimates of the direct rebound effect a review beginning with william stanley jevons in 1865 a number of authors have claimed that economically justified energy efficiency improvements will increase rather than reduce energy consumption jevons paradox is extremely difficult to test empirically but could have profound implications for energy and climate policy this paper summarises and critiques the arguments and evidence that have been cited in support of jevons paradox focusing in particular on the work of len brookes and harry saunders it identifies some empirical and theoretical weaknesses in these arguments highlights the questions they raise for economic orthodoxy and points to some interesting parallels between these arguments and those used by the biophysical school of ecological economics while the evidence in favour of jevons paradox is far from conclusive it does suggest that economy wide rebound effects are larger than is conventionally assumed and that energy plays a more important role in driving productivity improvements and economic growth than is conventionally assumed 2008 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

reviving manufacturing with a federal cogeneration policy abstract improving the energy economics of manufacturing is essential to revitalizing the industrial base of advanced economies this paper evaluates ex ante a federal policy option aimed at promoting industrial cogeneration the production of heat and electricity in a single energy efficient process detailed analysis using the national energy modeling system nems and spreadsheet calculations suggest that industrial cogeneration could meet 18 of u s electricity requirements by 2035 compared with its current 8 9 market share substituting less efficient utility scale power plants with cogeneration systems would produce numerous economic and environmental benefits but would also create an assortment of losers and winners multiple perspectives to benefit cost analysis are therefore valuable our results indicate that the federal cogeneration policy would be highly favorable to manufacturers and the public sector cutting energy bills generating billions of dollars in electricity sales making producers more competitive and reducing pollution most traditional utilities on the other hand would lose revenues unless their rate recovery procedures are adjusted to prevent the loss of profits due to customer owned generation and the erosion of utility sales from a public policy perspective deadweight losses would be introduced by market distorting federal incentives ranging annually from 30 to 150 million but these losses are much smaller than the estimated net social benefits of the federal cogeneration policy

grain marketing parastatals in asia results from six case studies summary using case studies from six asian countries this paper assesses the relevance of underlying rationales for public intervention in food grain markets documents the existing policies and regulatory supports to grain marketing parastatals examines benefits and costs of parastatals and summarizes lessons from reforms and reduced interventions the results suggest that commonly cited rationales for food market intervention are no longer convincing the costs of parastatals led price stabilization are staggering and the price policies are being dictated by special interests the evidences from the early reformers indicate that reduced intervention can promote competition reduce subsidies and release funds for development and anti poverty programs all without jeopardizing price stability

differentiated products and evasion of import tariffs emerging literature has demonstrated some unique characteristics of trade in differentiated products this paper contributes to the literature by postulating that differentiated products may be subject to greater tariff evasion due to the difficulties associated with assessing their quality and price using product level data on trade between germany and 10 eastern european countries during 1992 2003 the authors find empirical support for this hypothesis they show that the trade gap defined as the discrepancy between the value of exports reported by germany and the value of imports from germany reported by the importing country is positively related to the level of tariff in 8 out of 10 countries further the authors show that the responsiveness of the trade gap to the tariff level is greater for differentiated products than for homogeneous goods a one percentage point increase in the tariff rate is associated with a 0 6 percent increase in the trade gap in the case of homogeneous products and a 2 1 percent increase in the case of differentiated products finally the data indicate that greater tariff evasion observed for differentiated products tends to take place through misrepresentation of the import prices

measuring the effects of economic diversity on growth and stability the role of economic diversity in regional stability and growth is examined contrary to conventional wisdom the empirical literature has been unable to confirm the link between diversity and economic performance traditional notions of diversity tend to be defined narrowly usually emphasizing the distribution of employment across industries these approaches are inadequate because they do not capture elements of inter industrial linkages an alternate approach to conceptualizing diversity based on a regional input output model is described and computed for the 50 states empirical results suggest that diversity within the theoretical construct of input output is associated with higher levels of stability and growth

us agricultural exports and labor market adjustments this study empirically investigates the impact of us agricultural exports on farm and nonfarm employment and tests how individuals adjust to agricultural export shocks based on the data from 1991 to 2017 and a bartik style instrument that exploits cross regional variation in agricultural export exposure stemming from initial differences in agricultural specialization and temporal variation in predicted us exports from exogenous tariff reductions we find that a 1 increase in agricultural exports increases farm employment by 0 302 and has no statistically significant impact on nonfarm employment the individual level analysis shows that in response to positive agricultural export demand shocks natives with a college degree are more likely to become self employed and start farm activities and while non natives without a college degree are more likely to become hired farmworkers a back of the envelope calculation based on the estimates of agricultural trade elasticities of employment shows that on balance job gains due to us agricultural exports are slightly larger than job loss due to agricultural imports resulting in a net gain of around 0 24 million farm jobs over 1991 2017

ex post analysis of economic impacts from wind power development in u s counties wind power development has surged in recent years in the united states policymakers and economic development practitioners to date have typically relied upon project level case studies or modeled input output estimates to assess the economic development impacts from wind power often focusing on potential local state wide or national employment or earnings impacts building on this literature we conduct an ex post econometric analysis of the county level economic development impacts of wind power installations from 2000 through 2008 in a large wind rich region in the country taking into account factors influencing wind turbine location we find an aggregate increase in county level personal income and employment of approximately 11 000 and 0 5 jobs per megawatt of wind power capacity installed over the sample period of 2000 to 2008 these estimates appear broadly consistent with modeled input output results and translate to a median increase in total county personal income and employment of 0 2 and 0 4 for counties with installed wind power over the same period

wages rents and the quality of life this study focuses on the role of wages and rents in allocating workers to locations with various quantities of amenities the theory demonstrates that if the amenity is also productive then the sign of the wage gradient is unclear while the rent gradient is positive the theory is extended to include the housing market and nontraded goods these extensions require little modification of the conclusion the empirical work on wages shows that the regional wage differences can be explained largely by these local attributes with the use of site price data implicit prices are estimated and quality of life rankings for the cities are computed

trade liberalization and food security in nepal among south asian countries nepal liberalized most extensively during the 1980s and 1990s on both domestic and external fronts in south asia nepal has the lowest per capita income highest dependence of population on agriculture and second highest poverty rate at the same time nepal has the lowest average tariffs in south asia and has taken several steps to downsize its public food distribution system and remove a host of agricultural subsidies the outcomes from these policy reforms in nepal are mixed aggregate indicators of food sufficiency and security per capita food availability extent of malnourishment show improvement in nepal since liberalization relative to other south asian countries nepal is doing better on some indicators like extent of undernourished population while on other indicators like stunting of children nepal is actually doing the worst more importantly the gains from liberalization across regions in nepal have been uneven the reason for such an uneven outcome is lack of complementary policies from the government that would lead to spatial integration of markets e g the creation of physical and marketing infrastructure liberalization has in effect reinforced the ex ante hierarchy across regions in nepal the paper then reviews the role and reform of the nepal food corporation nfc within this broader context

negative rebound and disinvestment effects in response to an improvement in energy efficiency in the uk economy this paper uses a computable general equilibrium cge framework to investigate the conditions under which rebound effects may occur in response to increases in energy efficiency in the uk national economy previous work for the uk has suggested that rebound effects will occur even where key elasticities of substitution in production are set close to zero the research reported in this paper involves carrying out a systematic sensitivity analysis where relative price sensitivity is gradually introduced into the system focusing specifically on elasticities of substitution in production and trade parameters in order to determine conditions under which rebound effects become a likely outcome the main result is that while there is positive pressure for rebound effects even where direct and indirect demands for energy are very price inelastic this may be partially or wholly offset by negative income competitiveness and disinvestment effects which also occur in response to falling energy prices the occurrence of disinvestment effects is of particular interest these occur where falling energy prices reduce profitability in domestic energy supply sectors leading to a contraction in capital stock in these sectors which may in turn lead to rebound effects that are smaller in the long run than in the short run a result that runs contrary to the predictions of previous theoretical work in this area

employment and other macroeconomic benefits of an innovation led climate strategy for the united states abstract climate protection policy and its analysis are pursued in the context of other societal goals among them the maintenance of economic growth and high employment too often however analysis of energy and climate policy does not realistically reflect technological conditions and the dynamics of technological change this tendency unnecessarily associates the decline in energy consumption or carbon emissions with the decline in national economic output or income but there is ample prima facie evidence to the contrary just as in the 19th century when the perceived need to reduce labor inputs as part of the production process spurred labor saving technological progress now the need to reduce energy and pollution costs could spur innovation and diffusion of efficient and clean energy technologies this in turn can increase overall growth in economic productivity energy technology analysts have identified many such existing and near term commercial technologies as well as innovations that can be foreseen beyond the immediate technological horizon which would become widely used if policies were developed to overcome market and institutional barriers this paper presents a macroeconomic analysis for a set of policies that would induce the adoption of more efficient and low carbon technologies and finds that overall employment and economic output could be increased by small amounts while significantly reducing carbon emissions

fair trade or trade fair international food trade and cross border macronutrient flows abstract this study examines global food trade from a nutritional perspective paying particular attention to its implications for food security in low income countries by describing food trade in terms of the quantities of three essential macronutrients carbohydrates lipids and proteins embedded in food the analysis goes beyond a simple description of trade values quantities or caloric content as is common in the literature furthermore the study provides estimates of the implicit price of each macronutrient their evolution over time and their implications in terms of north south food trade the data show that over the 1996 2014 period the volume of macronutrients exchanged on international markets has more than doubled with carbohydrates accounting for over 60 of trade flows but proteins and lipids growing at a faster pace proteins were found to be the most expensive macronutrient followed by lipids and carbohydrates in general macronutrients embedded in animal and processed products are more expensive than those in vegetal and unprocessed food the results also suggest that the participation in international food trade has positive effects on low income countries aggregate food availability and food access two pillars of food security indeed low income countries register a net inflow of all macronutrients and take advantage of nutritional arbitrages available on international food markets due to macronutrients price differentials

public policy markets and household coping strategies in bangladesh avoiding a food security crisis following the 1998 floods abstract at their peak the 1998 floods covered two thirds of bangladesh causing severe damage to the major rice crop and threatening the food security of tens of millions of households in this paper we first highlight the contribution of government policy interventions including trade liberalization in the early 1990s to stabilization of rice markets during and after the flood then using a panel data set covering 750 households in three rounds over a 13 month period we analyze impacts of the flood on household assets consumption and nutritional outcomes finally we present empirical estimates of the contribution of rice market stabilization and government transfers to household food consumption

recovery from the great depression the farm channel in spring 1933 from march to july 1933 us industrial production rose 57 percent we show that an important source of recovery was the effect of dollar devaluation on farm prices incomes and consumption devaluation immediately raised traded crop prices and auto sales grew more rapidly in states and counties most exposed to these price increases the response was amplified in counties with more severe farm debt burdens for plausible assumptions about farmers relative mpc the incidence of higher farm prices and the aggregate multiplier this redistribution to farmers accounted for a substantial portion of spring 1933 growth this farm channel thus provides an example of how the distributional consequences of macroeconomic policies can have large aggregate effects that recovery in 1933 benefited from redistribution to farmers suggests an important limitation to the use of 1933 as a guide to the effects of monetary regime changes in other circumstances

estimating the value of wind energy using electricity locational marginal price abstract there is an increasing interest in adding renewables such as wind to electricity generation portfolios in larger amounts as one response to concern about atmospheric carbon emissions from our energy system and the resulting climate change most policies with the aim of promoting renewables e g rps fit do not explicitly address siting issues which for wind energy are currently approached as the intersection of wind resource land control and transmission factors this work proposes the use of locational marginal price lmp the location and time specific cost of electricity on the wholesale market to signal locations where generation can address electricity system insufficiency after an examination of the spatial and temporal behavior of lmp in michigan over the first two years of wholesale market operation this work combines lmp with wind speed data to generate a value metric high value sites in michigan tend to be sites with higher wind speeds with the bulk of value accruing in the fall and winter seasons

policy positions issue importance and party competition in new democracies this article examines the dynamics of vote redistribution after new party entry in the context of east european democracies contrary to the dominant institutional and sociological approaches the author focuses on the strategic policy choices of the new contestants the author argues that a new party s choice about where to place itself in relation to existing parties and which issues to emphasize can determine its electoral success or failure aggregate and individual level analyses confirm this argument the findings underline the importance of policy based party competition in the region as a broader theoretical contribution the study underscores the relevance of issue importance and not just party issue positions in political competition

the economics of change in rural america communities perceptions of economic development prospects and alternatives are conditioned by previous experiences and anecdotal success stories thus small towns in traditionally agricultural regions equate economic development with prosperity in agriculture and the agricultural development program of the day sustainable agriculture value added enhancement alternative crops prosperity in nonmetro manufacturing centers is linked with industrial retention and recruitment and small business development and rural areas with natural historic or climatic amenities associate development with expanded tourism activity and the attraction of retirees

rural population decline in the 1980s impacts of farm structure and federal farm programs federal farm program benefits accrue disproportionately to large scale farm operators and continue largely because of the political influence of their beneficiaries some writers argue that these payments stem the movement of labor out of agriculture ultimately reducing the pace of rural depopulation here a theoretical model linking farm program payments to population loss is presented and empirically estimated for the years 1980 90 larger farm program payments as a share of total cash marketing receipts were associated with greater population losses from rural counties this result holds after controlling for other economic variables affecting population migration from rural areas

resource abundance and economic growth in the united states abstract it is a common assumption that regions within the same country converge to approximately the same steady state income levels the so called absolute convergence hypothesis focuses on initial income levels to account for the variability in income growth among regions empirical data seem to support the absolute convergence hypothesis for us states but the data also show that natural resource abundance is a significant negative determinant of growth we find that natural resource abundance decreases investment schooling openness and r d expenditure and increases corruption and we show that these effects can fully explain the negative effect of natural resource abundance on growth

economic performance through time prize lecture to the memory of alfred nobel december 9 1993 this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

policy divergence in multicandidate probabilistic spatial voting existing models of multicandidate spatial competition with probabilistic voting typically predict a high degree of policy convergence yet in actual elections candidates advocate quite divergent sets of policies what accounts for this disparity between theory and empirical observation i introduce two variations on the basic probabilistic vote model which may account for candidate policy divergence 1 a model which incorporates candidate specific variables so that candidates may enjoy nonpolicy related electoral advantages or disadvantages 2 a model which allows nonzero correlations between the random terms associated with voters candidate utilities thereby capturing situations where voters view two or more candidates as similar on nonpolicy grounds i report candidate equilibrium analyses for each model which show far greater policy divergence than exists under the standard probabilistic vote model i then analyze the strategic logic which underlies these results

renewable energy and employment in germany abstract the positive impacts of an increasing share of renewable energy on the mitigation of climate change as well as on the decrease of the dependency of energy imports are indisputable however one persistent problem for the german economy has been its high level of unemployment in the recent past therefore any policy strategy will be measured also by its net impact on the labor market the paper describes the results of a study that models this impact and is novel within three respects firstly an input output vector for the renewable energy sector was developed based on the results of more than 1000 interviews with an extensive questionnaire secondly gross and net effect of two different policy scenarios for germany until 2030 were calculated and thirdly the approach varies from earlier studies by its explicit modeling of export and foreign trade effects

regional trade government policy and food security recent evidence from zambia given heavy dependence on rainfed maize production countries in east and southern africa must routinely cope with pronounced production and consumption volatility in their primary food staple typical policy responses include increased food aid flows government commercial imports and stock releases and tight controls on private sector trade this paper examines recent evidence from zambia using a simple economic model to assess the likely impact of maize production shocks on the domestic maize price and on staple food consumption under alternative policy regimes in addition to an array of public policy instruments the analysis evaluates the impact of two key private sector responses in moderating food consumption volatility private cross border maize trade and consumer substitution of an alternate food staple cassava for maize the analysis suggests that given a favorable policy environment private imports and increased cassava consumption together could fill roughly two thirds of the maize consumption shortfall facing vulnerable households during drought years

the role of amenities and quality of life in rural economic growth a structural model of regional economic growth is estimated using data for 2243 rural u s counties five indices designed to capture specific amenity and quality of life characteristics are constructed using fifty four separate indicators results suggest that amenity characteristics can be organized into consistent and meaningful empirical measures that move beyond ad hoc descriptions of amenities in addition to insights into the influence of local characteristics ranging from tax burdens to income distribution on regional economic growth results suggest that predictable relationships between amenities quality of life and local economic performance exist

a generalized input output model of an economy with environmental protection i nput output analysis can be extended to an economic system with antipollution measures to describe interdependency among economic sectors and antipollution sectors in the economy such a model was formulated by professor leontief 1970 as a system of equations extending his original input output framework this extended model has been extensively discussed by leontief and ford 1972 chen 1973 and leontief 1973 a linear programming problem of the extended model with substitutions was presented by lowe 1979 however counter examples with unrealistic solutions to the extended model were presented by flick 1974 and lee 1975 validity of flick s counter example was questioned by leontief 1974 and steenge 1978 there seems to be an unresolved question concerning the existence of a unique nonnegative set of output levels in the extended model for any given nonnegative levels of final demand and tolerated pollution the structural matrix of leontief s original input output model possesses two important properties 1 off diagonal elements are nonpositive 2 all principal minors are positive these two properties known as leontief properties guarantee the existence of a unique nonnegative solution to leontief s original model for any given nonnegative final demand the above mentioned problem of feasibility arises when the original model is extended to endogenize antipollution sectors and to set the total amount of pollution generated equal to the antipollution output level plus the tolerable pollution level in this paper we present a complementarity formulation of the economic system with antipollution measures that overcomes the problem of determining the existence and uniqueness of a feasible solution under leontief properties and derive conditions under which the present formulation guarantees these desirable properties when the structural matrix has some positive offdiagonal elements we apply the model to solve examples with different final demands and tolerated pollution levels including flick s counterexample to obtain realistic solutions

unpacking logm toward a more general theory of party system density the standard model of political party system density combines two traditions to explain why some countries have more political parties than others one tradition that emphasizes social cleavages and another that emphasizes electoral institutions especially district magnitude despite its considerable success there are several reasons to be less than fully satisfied with the standard model we examine two of these problems associated with the scope of strategic voting and the functional form of the specification used to test the model in doing so we contrast the standard interpretation with an organizational ecology model that accounts for what the standard model did so well but also accounts for important anomalies it ignores we reexamine some of the key analyses that have been used to test the standard model to assess the severity of its limitations and the utility of the rival organizational ecology account

the sources of sectoral fluctuations in metropolitan areas abstract employment growth rates for 25 industries in the philadelphia metropolitan area are decomposed into national industry metropolitan and idiosyncratic sources which are estimated from a semistructural vector autoregression the standard shift share model is shown to be a restricted version of this constructed system and that these restrictions are not in fact met for nearly all industries the idiosyncratic shock is found to account for most of the variation in growth rates

rethinking economic development i provide a summary reflection and assessment of the current state of economic development in both the policy and academic worlds in terms of development policy currently the primary focus is on policy interventions namely foreign aid aimed at fixing the deficiencies of developing countries academic research also has a similar focus except with an emphasis in rigorous evaluation of interventions to estimate causal effects a standard set of versatile quantitative tools is used e g experimental and quasi experimental methods which can be easily applied in a range of settings to estimate the causal effects of policies which are typically presumed to be similar across contexts in this article i take a step back and ask whether the current practices are the best that we can do are foreign aid and policy interventions the best options we have for poverty alleviation what else can be done is our current research strategy characterized by rigorous but a lack of context specific analysis the best method of analysis is there a role for other research methods for a deeper understanding of the local context and for more collaboration with local scholars repenser le developpement economiquee dans cet article je propose un apercu une reflexion et une evaluation de l etat actuel du developpement economique a la fois dans les spheres politiques et universitaires en matiere de developpement economique l attention est principalement portee sur l intervention politique c est a dire l aide exterieure visant a corriger les defaillances des pays en developpement les recherches universitaires y portent une attention similaire mais en mettant davantage l accent sur l evaluation rigoureuse de ces memes interventions pour en mesurer les effets de causalite a cette fin un ensemble d outils quantitatifs et modulables standard sont utilises notamment par l entremise de methodes experimentales et quasi experimentales pouvant facilement s appliquer a une vaste gamme de situations et ce aux fins d evaluations des liens de causalite engendres par ces politiques liens habituellement consideres comme similaires d un contexte a l autre dans cet article je prends un peu de recul pour m interroger sur la pertinence des pratiques actuelles les interventions politiques et l aide exterieure offrent elles les meilleures options pour reduire la pauvrete que pouvons nous faire d autre notre strategie de recherche actuelle caracterisee par des analyses rigoureuses mais peu adaptees a des contextes specifiques est elle la meilleure d autres methodes de recherche peuvent elles permettre de mieux comprendre les contextes regionaux et favoriser une meilleure collaboration avec les intellectuels locaux

the energy efficiency gap what does it mean abstract as renewed attention has been given by policy makers to energy conservation issues it has frequently been asserted that an energy efficiency gap exists between actual and optimal energy use the critical questions is how to define the optimal level of energy efficiency this paper seeks to disentangle some confusing strands of argument that are frequently brought to bear on this question by identifying the major conceptual issues that determine the set of feasible answers we identify five separate and distinct notions of optimality the economists economic potential the technologists economic potential hypothetical potential the narrow social optimum and the true social optimum each of these has associated with it a corresponding definition of the energy efficiency gap our analysis demonstrates that necessary preconditions for identifying the right measure of the energy efficiency gap include understanding and disentangling market failure and non market failure explanations for the gradual diffusion of energy efficient technologies

trade liberalization and national food security rice trade between bangladesh and india abstract following a poor harvest in late 1997 and a massive flood in 1998 private sector traders in bangladesh imported several million metric tons of rice from india this paper presents evidence that this trade made possible by separate trade liberalizations in india and bangladesh in the early 1990s augmented domestic supplies and stabilized prices in bangladesh at import parity levels letters of credit data indicating the participation of hundreds of importers and a close correlation of price movements across the two countries suggest that the trade was competitive a risk of co incident crop shortfalls in the two countries remains though these have occurred rarely in the past two decades bangladesh imports from alternative sources would also enhance food availability if another production shortfall occurs but these imports face higher transport costs and would involve far fewer importing firms given the economies of scale of shipments by sea the positive contribution of trade liberalization to short run food security in bangladesh in recent years does not minimize the importance of increased agricultural productivity and rural economic growth to provide rural poor households with sufficient incomes to acquire food nonetheless the bangladesh experience shows that trade liberalization offers potential benefits for national food security by enabling a rapid increase of food supplies following domestic production shortfalls

the job generation impacts of expanding industrial cogeneration sustainable economic development requires the efficient production and use of energy combined heat and power chp offers a promising technological approach to achieving both goals while a recent u s executive order set a national goal of 40 gw of new industrial chp by 2020 the deployment of chp is challenged by financial regulatory and workforce barriers discrepancies between private and public interests can be minimized by policies promoting energy based economic development in this context a great deal of rhetoric has addressed the ambiguous goal of growing green jobs our research provides a systematic evaluation of the job impacts of an investment tax credit that would subsidize industrial chp deployment we introduce a hybrid analysis approach combining simulations using the national energy modeling system with input output modeling nems simulates general equilibrium effects including supply and demand side resources we identify first order employment impacts by creating bill of goods expenditures for the installation and operation of industrial chp systems second order impacts are then estimated based on the redirection of energy bill savings accruing to consumers these include jobs across the economy created by the lower electricity prices that would result from increased reliance on energy efficient chp systems on a jobs per gwh basis we find that the second order impacts are approximately twice as large as the first order impacts

government interventions in foodgrain markets abstract this paper examines the cost involved and effects of government interventions in foodgrain markets in india it is observed that although these interventions have not been able to reduce price spread tangible successes in temporal and seasonal price stabilization and increases access to food have been achieved however the public distribution of foodgrains has exhibited urban bias particularly for wheat and is inconsistent with the incidence of poverty freight and interest payments have contributed largely to the cost and hence accentuated the rate of subsidy the keys to reducing food subsidies are strict targeting of public distribution to people below the poverty line in resource fragile regions relief work rational movement of foodgrains sale of excess foodgrains to a buffer stock and public distribution in the open market at an economic price

food price policy the rationale for government intervention abstract policy makers in the most successful developing countries have not accepted either of the two major schools of thought on food price policy the neo classical school favours free trade to maximize efficiency of resource allocation the structuralist school favours interventions to satisfy goals for income distribution especially in the rapidly growing rice based economies of asia policy makers have been more concerned about stability of domestic prices than their level relative to world prices this concern traditionally dismissed by economists as purely political is justified on economic grounds because of improved macroeconomic and dynamic efficiency from stable food prices the paper identifies both the benefits from food price stability and the costs of achieving it

riding the wave of urban growth in the countryside spread backwash or stagnation the advisability of an urban centered growth strategy to reap the benefits of urban agglomeration economies is much debated rural areas benefit when the growth spreads to the hinterlands especially within daily commuting distance yet in distant peripheral locations urban growth may create a backwash as households relocate to the urban center this study examines spread vs backwash as separate from long run distance from urban center trend effects using a novel canadian gis database the unique nation wide approach yields a spread and backwash rural growth topography that varies by distance from the urban center by urban population vs income growth and by size of rural community

food aid domestic policy and food security contrasting experiences from south asia and sub saharan africa abstract food aid both for short term emergency relief and as program food aid that helps address medium term food deficits is often a major component of food security strategies in developing countries this study reviews the experience with food aid of four major recipients of food aid india bangladesh ethiopia and zambia regarding food production trade markets consumption and safety nets as well as the policy responses to food emergencies the widely varying experiences of the study countries suggest that food aid that supports building of production and market enhancing infrastructure is timed to avoid adverse price effects on producers and is targeted to food insecure households can play a positive role in enhancing food security however food aid is not the only or in many cases the most efficient means of addressing food insecurity in many cases private markets can more effectively address shortfalls in food availability and cash transfers may be a viable alternative to food transfers in kind

does trade openness contribute to food security a dynamic panel analysis abstract despite significant progress in the fight against hunger during the last decades food insecurity remains a major problem in many countries especially developing ones in this study we use a large cross country data to investigate the impact of trade openness and other factors on food security measured by dietary energy consumption we employ a system gmm approach to account for unobserved heterogeneity correlated individual effects and potential endogeneity of the explanatory variables the empirical results reveal that trade openness and economic growth exert positive and significant impacts on dietary energy consumption and also contribute to improvements in dietary diversity the results are robust to the inclusion of additional variables capturing specific agro climatic constraints e g weather related and regional country characteristics and to the sample composition most geographical regions are found to have significantly higher food security levels compared to sub saharan africa additional results indicate that besides calorie consumption trade openness also improves dietary diversity and diet quality related aspects of food security

margins of labor market adjustment to trade abstract we use both longitudinal administrative data and cross sectional household survey data to study the margins of labor market adjustment following brazil s early 1990s trade liberalization we document how workers and regional labor markets adjust to trade induced changes in local labor demand examining various adjustment margins including earnings and wage changes interregional migration shifts between tradable and nontradable employment and shifts between formal employment informal employment and non employment our results provide insight into the regional labor market effects of trade and have important implications for policies that address informal employment and that assist trade displaced workers