price determination in the eu ets market theory and econometric analysis with market fundamentals abstract we investigate the price determination of the european union emission allowance eua of the european union emissions trading scheme eu ets we postulate an uncertain permit price and risk averse firms which have the possibility to hedge in the forward market the firms produce final goods abate their emissions and trade permits in the permit market the dependence of the equilibrium permit price on exogenous variables is studied in a permit market model we test our theoretical findings with empirical data from 2005 to 2010 in the eu ets market we use daily forward prices of eua as our dependent variable we use several econometric models with multiple stationary time series to discover that there is a strong relationship between the fundamentals such as german electricity prices and gas and coal prices with the price of eua we find that the eua forward price depends on fundamentals especially on the price of electricity as well as on the gas coal difference in a statistically significant way

preparing hydropower projects for the post paris regime an econometric analysis of the main drivers for registration in the clean development mechanism abstract the 2015 paris climate accords promises to reign in a new era in the fight against global climate change the agreement supports the establishment of new cooperative approaches including internationally transferred mitigation outcomes through which individual countries can meet their nationally determined contributions hydropower projects however are in danger of being left out in the new regime mainly due to its dubious position as a renewable energy source hydropower in the clean development mechanism cdm has been criticized for non conformance to additionality and sustainability objectives originally set out in the kyoto protocol to confirm such issues and to provide recommendations that may mitigate them this study conducted an econometric analysis of 2717 hydropower projects in the cdm pipeline leading up to 2016 specifically a logit model was constructed to identify the main drivers for registration success results of the analysis showed the capacity and expected carbon credits of hydropower projects to be the dominant factors for registration rather than their financial requirements or technological barriers most problematically large scale projects not requiring carbon credits were registered while their social and environmental impacts have not been extensively scrutinized policy recommendations to rectify the verification process are proposed so that when implemented the right hydropower projects may be included in the new market mechanisms of the post 2020 regime

why does the combination of the european union emissions trading scheme and a renewable energy target makes economic sense abstract the european climate and energy mix of targets and policies has been criticised by many economists in particular it is often argued that the renewable energy targets do not make economic sense because they represent an expensive option to reduce co2 emissions within a cap and trade scheme such as the european union emissions trading scheme eu ets in addition it has also been claimed that support for renewable electricity deployment negatively interacts with the eu ets having a dampening effect on the co2 price which favours the dirtiest technologies and is detrimental for the greener ones in this article we argue that this mainstream economic view is short sighted and that a multidisciplinary economic analysis of the climate and energy policy mix is required mainstream economic analysis is based on a narrow approach for the assessment of instrument combinations and neglects relevant insights from several economic disciplines including innovation economics and political economy approaches in reality economic theory supports the combination of an ets and renewable energy targets the existence of different policy goals and market failures the demand pull influence of renewable energy policies on innovation a political economy approach and the different risk exposure of renewable energy technologies call for a policy mix although policy combinations are not a panacea and bring problems on their own the aforementioned negative interaction between renewable energy deployment and the carbon price in the eu ets can be mitigated through appropriate coordination and or instrument choice and design

the influence of collective action on the demand for voluntary climate change mitigation in hypothetical and real situations in this experiment we investigate determinants of the individual demand for voluntary climate change mitigation subjects decide between a cash prize and an allowance from the eu emissions trading scheme for one ton of co2 that will be deleted afterwards we vary the incentives of the decision situation in which we distinguish between real monetary incentives and a hypothetical decision situation with and without a cheap talk script furthermore decisions were implemented either as purely individual or as a collective action using majority voting we observe a significant hypothetical bias in the demand for voluntary climate change mitigation in case of the individual decision situation this bias is caused solely by subjects with low income collective decision making affects demand positively in the hypothetical decision situation only

transactions in the european carbon market a bubble of compliance in a whirlpool of speculation the european union emissions trading scheme eu ets is supposed to help regulated installations to cover their co2 emissions by trading in allowances in practice the eu ets is mainly a financial market used for hedging and speculation this financial feature is regarded as a solution hedging and liquidity to a problem the price risk and volatility imposed on installations which the market has actually created itself this paper provides an estimation of the real underpinning of the scheme i e the needs of installations for allowances transfers to achieve compliance in the two first exchange periods this estimation which was singularly lacking in the literature shows that compliance transactions become more and more marginal as market activity grows and that they are drowned in a whirlpool of speculation this challenges the role of the carbon price whose financial and self referential evaluation can obviously not reveal installations marginal abatement costs the condition of cost effectiveness expected from carbon trading

policy options to improve the effectiveness of the eu emissions trading system a multi criteria analysis abstract this paper considers several policy options which have been proposed to improve the functioning of the ets these options require an intervention either on the ets cap 30 target set aside carbon central bank long term target or on the carbon price european and national price floor we analyse the impact of each policy on the ets carbon price and emissions a multi criteria evaluation method is applied to compare the policy options against a plurality of environmental economic and procedural criteria we find that the final ranking depends on the goals to be achieved i e the relative weights attributed to the criteria when policymakers want mainly to support the carbon price both in the short and long run while improving ets flexibility and harmonization the ccb and the eu price floor are respectively ranked as first and second best options as the preference for environmental and implementation goals gradually increases the position of the eu price floor and ccb options tend to invert the 30 target should be adopted when reducing emissions is the priority goal while a national price floor is the worst option in this case nevertheless self interested states looking for a relatively quick feasible solution may find it optimal

the effect of labor supply and tax rates on intraurban location exist only one paper wales 1978 in killingsworth s 1983 review of labor supply studies explicitly controlled for commuting the key variable in standard models of urban location more recently kohlhase 1986 developed a model of housing demand with endogenous labor supply and alperovich 1985 included income in estimates of distance functions no published empirical paper treats household intraurban location and labor supply as jointly endog

an equilibrium model of consumer energy choice using a personal carbon trading scheme based on allowance price abstract changes in consumer behavior due to a personal carbon trading pct scheme are theoretically attractive yet untested in practice in this paper simulations on the basis of an equilibrium model are used to examine the effects of carbon allowance prices on energy use choice under a particular pct scheme it is shown that the equilibrium price of allowances would emerge under the pct scheme considered here further analyses indicate that the quantity of energy consumption under pct is a nonlinear function of the allowance price with a sharp kink at the point of equilibrium when the allowance price is below the equilibrium price consumers would prefer higher carbon energy in contrast when the allowance price is above the equilibrium price consumers would choose lower carbon energy however when the allowance price equals the equilibrium value consumers would purchase lower carbon energy and higher carbon energy simultaneously furthermore it is shown that the initial allowance allocation could also affect energy use choice on the basis of these results one of the main implications is that the allowance price should exceed the breakeven price to stimulate consumers to switch to green energy and progressively live a low carbon lifestyle

impact of renewables deployment on the co2 price and the co2 emissions in the european electricity sector abstract as of 2005 electricity generators in europe operate under the european union emission trading system eu ets at the same time european member states have launched support mechanisms to stimulate the deployment of renewable electricity sources res e res e injections displace co 2 emissions within the sectors operating under the eu ets and they reduce the demand for european union allowances euas thereby reducing the eua price this paper presents the results of an ex post analysis to quantify the impact of res e deployment on the eua price and co 2 emissions in the western and southern european electricity sector during the period from 2007 to 2010 following from an operational partial equilibrium model of the electricity sector this study shows that the co 2 displacement from the electricity sector to other ets sectors due to res e deployment can be up to more than 10 of historical co 2 emissions in the electricity sector the eua price decrease caused by res e deployment turns out to be likely significant

predicting carbon market risk using information from macroeconomic fundamentals abstract economic theories suggest that carbon price movements are closely related to economic fundamentals this paper develops an economic state dependent sd approach to evaluate carbon market value at risk var that incorporates information from macroeconomic fundamentals into carbon return var modeling and forecasting this method implements an economic sd sampling scheme that utilizes historical carbon return observations from the relevant economic states to predict future carbon market var applying this sd method to the european union eu carbon market we confirm that the eu fundamental economy has two distinct states that correspond to expansion and recession periods and that the carbon returns have different distributions in the two states we find that the sd method outperforms the traditional non sd methods in out of sample var forecasts and this is particularly evident when the carbon market experiences large scale economy driven structural breaks

public violence and state building in central america this article examines the role played by war and public violence more generally in the state building experiences of central america bellicist theory expects that wars provide a stimulus to extractive efforts thus enhancing the autonomy and capacity of the state over time though recent qualitative studies of south america find the opposite i expand the reach of bellicist theory to central america through the broader concept of public violence which captures the long term impact of external and internal rivals on the state the quantitative tests demonstrate that central american interstate and civil wars reduce the extractive ability of states consistent with the south american evidence interstate rivals stimulate extractive efforts among governments whereas intrastate rivals detract from those efforts incorporating the concept of public violence into bellicist theory thus helps to increase our understanding of central american state building

an econometric analysis of emission allowance prices knowledge of the statistical distribution of the prices of emission allowances and their forecastability are crucial in constructing among other things purchasing and risk management strategies in the emissions constrained markets this paper analyzes the two emission permits markets co2 in europe and so2 in the us and investigates a model for dealing with the unique stylized facts of this type of data its effectiveness in terms of model fit and out of sample value at risk forecasting as compared to models commonly used in risk forecasting contexts is demonstrated

an analysis of the decline of electricity spot prices in europe who is to blame abstract the european electricity markets are going through a phase of agitating transition which is shaped by different key factors such as the expansion of renewable energies the changes in the eu carbon trading scheme and the european market integration in addition markets are affected by the volatile prices of primary energy carriers e g gas and coal the development of these different factors led to a decline of german wholesale electricity prices of almost 40 from about 51 mwh in 2011 to 31 mwh in 2015 the goal of this study is to analyze the contribution of different price drivers to this decline thus an agent based modeling and a regression approach are applied to investigate the effect of price drivers and to verify model results by comparing both approaches our results show that against the public perception the impact of carbon and coal prices on german electricity prices has been twice as high as the renewable expansion between 2011 and 2015 furthermore if carbon and coal prices do not recover to at least the level of 2011 electricity prices will remain on the current low level complicating the economic operation of gas power plants

the response of the beijing carbon emissions allowance price bjc to macroeconomic and energy price indices in 2013 china opened pilot carbon emission trading markets in seven provinces where carbon emission allowances have now been traded for more than two years in this paper we employ a structural var model and the price of the beijing carbon emission allowance to study the dynamic relationships among the price of the carbon emission allowance economic development and the price of energy this paper s data cover the period from april 2 2014 to november 6 2015 this paper provides information that will be helpful to both investors and governmental policy makers the results show that 1 an increase of one standard deviation in the coal price leads to an initial increase of approximately 0 1 in the beijing carbon price after 2 days there is a decrease of less than 0 1 and the price gradually increases by approximately 0 1 after 30 days 2 the price of the beijing carbon emission allowance is mainly affected by its own historical price 3 the beijing carbon emission allowance price crude oil price natural gas price and economic development have positive albeit non significant correlations

the impact of intraday markets on the market value of flexibility decomposing effects on profile and the imbalance costs abstract an increasing share of variable renewable energy sources vres basically affects the electricity price formation in two ways 1 the so called merit order effect tends to lower the base price level and challenges conventional plants to remain profitable 2 due to the variable nature of renewable energy infeed the short term demand for flexibility increases and changes the volatility of electricity prices the more variable prices offer opportunities for controllable electricity producers ceps who provide up and down ramping flexibility to increase their revenues in contrast the vres with high degrees of simultaneity tend to pay for this flexibility in the electricity spot market to reduce their imbalance exposure the intraday market idm for electricity has gained importance for the market value of different technologies lately and continues to expand due to the increasing efforts to balance within day deviation from day ahead schedules this article presents a combination and extension of two existing models to capture the peculiarities of the intraday price formation and to analyze the impact of the idm on the market value of vres and ceps doing so the paper suggests an adjustment of the classical market value factor metric and to go beyond classical day ahead market dam information the article shows that market value factors mvfs can be stabilized if the idm delivers market based price signals for the costs of flexibility that are sufficient to activate flexibilities prior to the usually more expensive imbalance mechanism ibm yet the mvfs from single vre technologies will worsen if their market share is high enough to outweigh forecast errors from other technologies and if they become a permanent price maker in the idm and the ibm

a proximate mirror greenhouse gas rules and strategic behavior under the us clean air act the development of climate policy in the united states mirrors international developments with efforts to initiate a coordinated approach giving way to jurisdictions separately taking actions the centerpiece of us policy is regulation in the electricity sector that identifies a carbon emissions rate standard intensity standard for each state but leaves to states the design of policies including potentially the use of technology policies emissions rate averaging or cap and trade differences in policies among states within the same power market could promote predatory behavior resulting in a geographic shift in generation and investment in new resources this paper examines the coordination problem using a detailed partial equilibrium model of operations and investment we demonstrate that leading jurisdictions have available a rich set of design options including targetted output based allocation that would impose costs on neighbors and may protect against strategic predation

politics matters regulatory events as catalysts for price formation under cap and trade this paper investigates how the political process of making cap adjustments has shaped market outcomes in the world s largest cap and trade system the eu ets capitalizing on an event study method that incorporates an econometric technique designed to handle parameter instability and model uncertainty we assess the news implied price response to 29 hand collected announcements about the eu ets supply schedule our findings document a high market responsiveness to political events and reveal how market participants view the evolution of cap stringency in the light of a particular announcement we provide evidence that a sequence of strong event induced price drops evolve in the backloading decision process which is consistent with the interpretation that market participant s confidence in the political support for reform and probably the eu ets in general has been unsettled we also document positive price reactions to the 2020 and 2030 policy packages but not the 2050 roadmaps

dynamic linkages among carbon energy and financial markets a smooth transition approach this article explores how price linkages between carbon allowances and market fundamentals in the eu emissions trading scheme eu ets vary over time i adopt a multivariate garch model that allows the conditional correlation between carbon energy and financial prices to change smoothly across regimes governed by functions of two transition variables that explain why price linkages vary i use i time as transition variable to allow for structural changes associated with institutional advances in the eu ets and ii implied volatility to account for heterogeneity in the behaviour of correlations in times of distress compared to calm periods the results point to a new pricing regime with much closer carbon energy price linkages in the second phase of the eu ets furthermore i find that correlations depend on market uncertainty conditions which exposes the link between carbon and financial markets due to common macroeconomic shocks during the current financial crisis

on the economics of renewable energy sources abstract with the global expansion of renewable energy re technologies the provision of optimal re policy packages becomes an important task we review pivotal aspects regarding the economics of renewables that are relevant to the design of an optimal re policy many of which are to date unresolved we do so from three interrelated perspectives that a meaningful public policy framework for inquiry must take into account first we explore different social objectives justifying the deployment of re technologies and review model based estimates of the economic potential of re technologies i e their socially optimal deployment level second we address pivotal market failures that arise in the course of implementing the economic potential of re sources in decentralized markets third we discuss multiple policy instruments curing these market failures our framework reveals the requirements for an assessment of the relevant options for real world decision makers in the field of re policies this review makes it clear that there are remaining white areas on the knowledge map concerning consistent and socially optimal re policies

price drivers and structural breaks in european carbon prices 2005 2007 this article aims at characterizing the daily price fundamentals of european union allowances euas traded since 2005 as part of the emissions trading scheme ets the presence of two structural changes on april 2006 following the disclosure of 2005 verified emissions and on october 2006 following the european commission announcement of stricter phase ii allocation allows to isolate distinct fundamentals evolving overtime the results extend previous literature by showing that eua spot prices react not only to energy prices with forecast errors but also to unanticipated temperatures changes during colder events besides the sub period decomposition of the pilot phase gives a better grasp of institutional and market events that drive allowance price changes

an emerging equilibrium in the eu emissions trading scheme abstract the european union s emissions trading scheme ets is the key policy instrument of the european commission s climate change program aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions to eight percent below 1990 levels by 2012 a critically important element of the eu ets is the establishment of a market determined price for eu allowances this article examines the extent to which several theoretically founded factors including economic growth energy prices and weather conditions determine the expected prices of the european union co 2 allowances during the 2005 through to the 2009 period the novel aspect of our study is that we examine heavily traded futures instruments that have an expiry date in phase 2 of the eu ets our study adopts both static and recursive versions of the johansen multivariate cointegration likelihood ratio test as well as a variation on this test with a view to controlling for time varying volatility effects our results are indicative of a new pricing regime emerging in phase 2 and point to a maturing market driven by the fundamentals these results are valuable both for traders of eu allowances and for those policy makers seeking to improve the design of the european union ets

is renewable energy a cost effective mitigation resource an application to the spanish electricity market abstract this paper evaluates the net effect of renewable energy policy in spain from 2002 to 2017 and calculates its cost effectiveness in terms of co2 emission reductions in the production of electricity our conclusions indicate that although the phasing out of feed in tariffs reduced the regulatory costs it also limited renewable participation in the electricity market leading to an increased electricity price and higher emissions according to our results the joint effect of i the value of avoided emissions due to renewable energy participation and ii the merit order effect was able to compensate for the regulatory costs subsidies up until 2010 while the sign of the net effect was reversed from 2011 to 2017 finally we find that the economic implications of emission reductions are highly dependent on how the social cost of carbon is measured

a model of intertemporal emission trading banking and borrowing abstract this paper provides a general treatment of emission trading banking and borrowing in an intertemporal continuous time model using optimal control theory the decentralized behavior of firms is shown to lead to the least cost solution attainable under joint cost minimization explicit solutions for the time paths of emissions and permit prices are derived when firms are allowed to both bank and borrow and when firms are only allowed to bank emission permits the policy implications of emission banking and borrowing are discussed

co2 abatement from renewables in the german electricity sector does a co2 price help abstract the overlapping impact of the emission trading system ets and renewable energy re deployment targets creates a classic case of interaction effects whereas the price interaction is widely recognized and has been thoroughly discussed the effect of an overlapping instrument on the abatement attributable to an instrument has gained little attention this paper estimates the actual reduction in demand for european union allowances that has occurred due to re deployment focusing on the german electricity sector for the five years 2006 through 2010 based on a unit commitment model we estimate that co 2 emissions from the german electricity sector are reduced by 35 to 60 mtons or 10 to 18 of what estimated emissions would have been without any re policy but with the co 2 price remaining in place at the observed level furthermore we find that the abatement attributable to re injections is greater in the presence of an allowance price than otherwise the same holds for the ets effect in presence of re injection this interaction effect is consistently positive for the german electricity system at least for the considered years and on the order of 0 5 to 1 5 of emissions

what happens to the relationship between eu allowances prices and stock market indices in europe abstract the stock market may reflect the economic conditions of an economy and a positive economic situation is expected to improve the companies profits which makes company shares more attractive since the expected dividends to shareholders will be larger theoretically higher economic activity leads to higher energy demand and consequently higher carbon emissions which give rise to higher eu allowances eua prices therefore the stock market and eua prices seem to be connected with causality going from the stock markets to eua prices this paper formally tests for it showing that the causality effectively runs from the stock market to the european climate exchange market furthermore the paper studies the effects of the evolution of european stock markets on the eua spot prices

allowance price drivers in the first phase of the eu ets abstract in the first phase of the eu emissions trading scheme eu ets the price per ton of co 2 initially rose to over 30 the price then collapsed to essentially zero by mid 2007 by deriving a structural model of the allowance price under the assumption of efficient markets i examine the extent to which this variation in price can be explained by marginal abatement costs i then gradually relax the model by allowing for delayed adjustment of price to fundamentals as well as by introducing lagged lhs variables the pattern of results suggests that while prices were not initially driven by marginal abatement costs this inefficiency was largely corrected after the accounting of 2005 emissions in april 2006

influences from the european parliament on eu emissions prices abstract the decisions of the european parliament ep are shown to influence both eu emission allowance eua prices and volatility reductions in price and increases in volatility are observed when ep decisions are i not party political in origin ii made during times of low market sentiment or iii made during times of low market attention daily eua prices from 2007 to 2014 are used in the study with decisions analysed using an event study approach for price impact and a garch specification for volatility impact our findings suggest the need for policymakers to improve communication of long term strategies for the eua market this aims to reduce the evident ongoing uncertainty experienced by traders around each decision made by the ep the finding that sentiment and market attention at the time of an ep decision influences the market s reaction indicates a need to consider market dynamics in terms of decision timing so that market turbulence is not an unintended by product of an ep decision some form of medium term forward guidance may be called for

consignment auctions of free emissions allowances abstract while the initial distribution of emissions allowances is usually thought to be independent of the emissions outcome free allocation can affect the efficiency and fairness of allowance trading inefficiency may result from thin allowance markets poor price discovery and regulatory or organizational complexities that hinder the recognition of opportunity costs concerns about fairness may result from intransparency in the process of transferring substantial allowance value we explore the role of consignment auctions in mitigating these concerns these revenue neutral auctions return the financial value of allowances to their original holders while revealing prices and directing allowances to their highest valued use they also can be used to support a minimum price when allowances are freely distributed which may facilitate program linkage consignment auctions have minimal administrative costs and do not necessarily involve government experience indicates that they can play an important role especially in new markets

impacts of a common green certificate market on electricity and co2 emission markets in the nordic countries abstract the purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of introducing a common nordic system for tradable green certificates tgcs on the electricity market and a future market for tradable co 2 emission permits teps in the analysis the energy system model generator markal was used to model the electricity and district heating supply systems in the four nordic countries sweden norway finland and denmark it is shown that the introduction of tgc quotas reduces wholesale electricity and tep prices the impact on the latter is very pronounced retail electricity prices may become lower or higher depending on the tgc quota than if obligations to fulfill tgc quotas were absent the tgc scheme s efficiency in reducing a specific amount of co 2 emissions is also compared to the corresponding efficiency of a tep scheme involving a broader range of technologies furthermore obligations to fulfill tgc quotas affect investment incentives for new non renewable electricity supply this seems especially true for gas fired power plants finally it is indicated that electricity supply based on biomass combustion dominates the tgc scheme at least in the short run

causes of the eu ets price drop recession cdm renewable policies or a bit of everything new evidence the price of eu allowances euas in the eu emissions trading scheme eu ets fell from almost 30 tco2 in mid 2008 to less than 5 tco2 in mid 2013 the sharp and persistent price decline has sparked intense debates both in academia and among policy makers about the decisive allowance price drivers in this paper we examine whether and to what extent the eua price drop can be justified by three commonly identified explanatory factors the economic recession renewable policies and the use of international credits capitalizing on marginal abatement cost theory and a broadly extended data set we find that only variations in economic activity and the growth of wind and solar electricity production are robustly explaining eua price dynamics contrary to simulation based analyses our results point to moderate interaction effects between the overlapping eu ets and renewable policies the bottom line however is that 90 of the variations of eua price changes remains unexplained by the abatement related fundamentals together our findings do not support the widely held view that negative demand shocks are the main cause of the weak carbon price signal in view of the new evidence we evaluate the eu ets reform options which are currently discussed

carbon price drivers phase i versus phase ii equilibrium abstract the aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of the carbon price during the two phases of the european union emission trading scheme eu ets more specifically relying on daily eu allowance futures contracts we test whether the carbon price drivers identified for phase i still hold for phase ii and evolve toward a long run relationship using cointegration techniques and accounting for the 2006 structural break in the carbon market we show that while a cointegrating relationship exists for both phases of the eu ets the nature of this equilibrium relationship is different across the two subperiods with an increasing role of fundamentals in phase ii deriving equilibrium values we show that the carbon price tends to be undervalued since the end of 2009

a multiscale analysis for carbon price drivers abstract this study proposes a multiscale analysis model to explore and identify the carbon price drivers at different timescales by introducing the latest multivariate empirical mode decomposition carbon price and its potential drivers are decomposed into several groups of simple modes with specific economic meanings the cointegration techniques error correction model and newey west estimator are combined to capture the carbon price drivers at similar timescales illustrated by the samples of the european union emissions trading system from 2009 to 2016 a few interesting results can be found that at the original data level among the three most important drivers of carbon price electricity price and stock index show positive impacts while coal price shows a negative impact at different timescales the effects of electricity and stock index appear comparatively earlier which drive carbon price from the short timescales and continue to strengthen however the impacts of coal oil and gas prices are lagging behind which respectively drive the carbon price at the medium and long timescales

covid 19 tests the market stability reserve we compare the decrease in energy demand and co2 emissions in europe during the financial crisis 2008 2009 with the expected drop in demand and emissions due to covid 19 and the price response of the eu emission trading system eu ets we ask whether the rather limited current price reduction may be due to the market stability reserve msr implemented in the eu ets between the two crises stylized facts and basic theory are complemented with simulations based on a model of the eu ets together they suggest a mixed result the msr stabilizes the eu ets price in turbulent times but imperfectly we show that the more persistent the covid 19 shock is the less the msr is able to serve its purpose

the impact on electric power industry under the implementation of national carbon trading market in china a dynamic cge analysis abstract as the largest carbon emissions source sector electric power industry is undoubtedly a principal part of the carbon trading market in china aimed at researching the impact on power industry beyond establishing the national carbon trading market a dynamic computable general equilibrium cge model embedded with carbon trading block is introduced in this paper subsequently we design 8 scenarios of which illustrate corresponding industry carbon emissions baselines and free quotas ratios the main simulation results are as follows the implementation of carbon emissions trading would bring a certain negative impact on the overall economy real gdp will be reduced by about 0 08 0 52 in 2030 though low free quotas ratio will cause a relatively high loss of gdp this negative impact would be eliminated in the long run in addition carbon emissions trading would also promote the clean production of electricity indeed the electric power industry would reach carbon emissions peak around 2020 relative to scenarios without carbon trading carbon emissions would reduce more than 1000 million tons in 2030 when industry carbon emissions baseline declines at an annual rate of 2 consequently the carbon market can achieve a more significant reduction in carbon emissions with the influencing of quotas fully auctioned scenario

the market microstructure of the european climate exchange abstract this paper analyzes the market microstructure of the european climate exchange the largest eu ets trading venue the ecx captures 2 3 of the screen traded market in eua and more than 90 in cer volume growth has averaged 277 in eua between 2005 and 2009 and 724 in cer since 2007 spreads range from 0 0188 to 0 0406 for eua and 0 0276 to 0 0796 for cer the median proportion of the spread due to adverse selection reaches 76 for eua and 75 for cer realized volatility bid ask spreads and adverse selection costs decline with verified emission releases market impact estimates imply that an average trade will move the eua market by 1 06 euro centimes and the cer market 1 45 the ecx is providing between 75 and 88 of price discovery for eua trading and between 64 and 72 for cer we find imbalances in the order book help predict returns for up to three days a simple trading strategy that enters the market long or short when the order imbalance is strong is profitable even after accounting for spreads and market impact

a model of carbon price interactions with macroeconomic and energy dynamics abstract this paper develops a model of carbon pricing by considering two fundamental drivers of european union allowances economic activity and energy prices on the one hand economic activity is proxied by aggregated industrial production in the eu 27 as it provides the best performance in a preliminary forecasting exercise vs other indicators on the other hand brent natural gas and coal prices are selected as being the main carbon price drivers as highlighted by previous literature the interactions between the macroeconomic and energy spheres are captured in a markov switching var model with two states that is able to reproduce the boom bust business cycle hamilton 1989 first industrial production is found to impact positively negatively the carbon market during periods of economic expansion recession thereby confirming the existence of a link between the macroeconomy and the price of carbon second the brent price is confirmed to be the leader in price formation among energy markets bachmeier and griffin 2006 as it impacts other variables through the structure of the markov switching model taken together these results uncover new interactions between the recently created eu emissions market and the pre existing macroeconomic energy environment

carbon mitigation in the electric power sector under cap and trade and renewables policies in europe co2 emissions from the electric power sector and energy intensive industries are capped under a cap and trade system i e the eu ets when other indirect measures are taken to impact emissions in a specific sector under the cap such as a push for renewables in the electric power sector this has implications on the overall allowance price and on co2 emissions both from this specific sector and the other sectors under the cap the central contribution of this paper is the derivation of impact curves which describe these interactions i e the impact on allowance price and the shift of emissions across sectors from a set of detailed simulations of the electric power system operation a so called emission plane is obtained from which impact curves can be derived focus is on interactions between co2 abatement through fuel switching and measures affecting the residual electricity demand such as deployment of renewables in the electric power sector as well as on interactions with other sectors both in a short term framework a case study for central western europe is presented the analysis reveals a substantial impact of renewables on co2 emissions and hence on emissions shifts across sectors and or on the co2 price

eua and scer phase ii price drivers unveiling the reasons for the existence of the eua scer spread abstract this article studies the price relationships between eu emissions allowances euas valid under the eu emissions trading scheme eu ets and secondary certified emissions reductions scers established from primary cers generated through the kyoto protocol s clean development mechanism cdm given the price differences between euas and scers financial and industrial operators may benefit from arbitrage strategies by buying scers and selling euas i e selling the eua scer spread to cover their compliance position as industrial operators are allowed to use scers towards compliance with their emissions cap within the european system up to 13 4 our central results show that the spread is mainly driven by eua prices and market microstructure variables and less importantly as we would expect by emissions related fundamental drivers this might be justified by the fact that the eu ets remains the greatest source of cer demand to date

what will china s carbon emission trading market affect with only electricity sector involvement a cge based study abstract on december 29 2017 china s carbon trading scheme ets was officially launched and it may be the largest emission trading platform in the world this paper establishes 5 counter measured scenarios based on the recently launched china s national ets market and constructs a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium model to study the impact of national ets on the economy energy and environment we find that the national ets will have a negative impact on gdp by 0 19 1 44 the national ets can significantly increase the price of electricity however the increase in the prices of other commodities will be much lower than that of electricity as long as the mechanism of the ets market remains unchanged emission reduction per year will increase linearly economic output and co2 emission are sensitive to annual decline factor adf this paper argues that china s national ets market is an effective tool to reduce co2 emission and we suggest that adf could be 0 5 when allocating carbon allowance for the electricity sector this could balance economic output and co2 reduction also it is easy to achieve the goal of double control total amount and intensity in china

rushing the impatient allowance reserves and the time profile of low carbon investments postponing the issue date of allowances in a cap and trade scheme by e g a reserve mechanism impacts the time profile of low carbon investments if the postponement constrains intertemporal arbitrage short term investments increase but long term investments are deterred this effect aggravates the shortage of long term investments at least partially attributed to firms impatience the cancellation of allowances agreed for phase iv of the eu ets is suitable to counteract the negative effects of cap neutral postponement on long term investments by making the reserve redundant all effects crucially depend on how firms form expectations about future allowance prices

impact of the economic recession on the european power sector s co2 emissions abstract this paper investigates the impact of the economic recession on co 2 emissions in the european power sector during the years 2008 and 2009 three main determinants of the power sector s emissions are identified the demand for electricity the co 2 price and fuel prices a counterfactual scenario has been set up for each of these i e what these parameters would have been if not affected by the recession a simulation model of the european power sector is then employed comparing a historical reference simulation taking the parameters as actually occurred with the counterfactual scenarios the lower electricity demand due to the recession is shown to have by far the largest impact accounting for an emission reduction of about 175 mton the lower co 2 price due to the recession resulted in an increase in emissions by about 30 mton the impact of fuel prices is more difficult to retrieve an indicative reduction of about 17 mton is obtained mainly as a consequence of the low gas prices in 2009 the simulated combined impact of the parameters results in an emission reduction of about 150 mton in the european power sector over the years 2008 and 2009 as a consequence of the recession

quantifying the net cost of a carbon price floor in germany abstract the german energy and climate policy mix is failing to decarbonize electricity production until now with only 6 overall co2 emissions reductions since 2005 using empirical methods and hourly market data we estimate the aggregate supply curve of the german power market and simulate the effect of a 20 tco2 and 40 tco2 carbon price floor on the german power market and on the renewable subsidy scheme with the 40 tco2 carbon price floor median prices increase by 37 mwh and average price peaks by 50 mwh at the wholesale level the market s annual volume increases by some 18 billion to 39 billion at the retail level however the net cost to consumers is moderated due to costs savings from the renewable subsidy scheme worth some 4 billion or roughly one fifth the same ratio applies to a price floor at 20 tco2

the effect of allocation above emissions and price uncertainty on abatement investments under the eu ets abstract the european union emission trading scheme eu ets by far the largest in its kind has inspired several other carbon markets in the world based on interviews with plant managers from almost all belgian ceramics lime and cement producers this study describes how manager s perceptions on emission trading affected investment decisions in line with behavioural economics reference dependence is found to explain why free allocation below emissions creates a greater incentive to abatement investment compared to allocation above emissions in the ceramics sector allocation above emissions refrained managers from including carbon gains in payback times this contradicts the famous coase theorem which predicts that free allocation has no effect on abatement incentives the results indicate that auctioning part of the emission rights will reduce barriers to abatement investment carbon price uncertainty is seen as a disincentive for abatement investment by some managers and as an incentive by others intermediate levels of uncertainty add option value to abatement investments because the associated gradual learning adds flexibility in an uncertain carbon constrained future however high levels of uncertainty creating a risk of offshoring even when companies innovate creates an option value to postpone abatement investments narrow framing misperceiving the risk hedging counter cyclicality of carbon costs reinforces the option value to wait therefore policy should aim to reduce price uncertainty for very low and very high carbon prices not for an intermediary price range

asymmetric risk spillover between financial market uncertainty and the carbon market a gas dcs copula approach abstract a thorough understanding the asymmetry in risk transferring mechanisms remains a challenge in the carbon market through the incorporation of the asymmetric tail distribution into the risk transferring mechanism the asymmetric response of the carbon market to financial market uncertainties can be explored herein we propose a generalized autoregressive score dynamic conditional score copula model to investigate the asymmetric risk spillover between financial market uncertainty and the carbon market we discover the existence of considerable asymmetric risk spillover from financial market uncertainty to the carbon market specifically the upper tail risk spillover effect is greater than the lower tail risk spillover effect the degree of risk spillover reached a peak during the european debt crisis also higher degrees of financial market uncertainty and especially uncertainty from the crude oil market cause a greater risk spillover to the carbon market than lower degrees of financial market uncertainty do in addition we discover that stock market uncertainty exhibits greater power than crude oil market uncertainty in transferring risk to the carbon market when systemic events occur our research provides meaningful information to investors and policy makers

eu ets emissions under the cancellation mechanism effects of national measures abstract beginning in 2023 allowances held in the market stability reserve of the eu ets above the number of allowances auctioned the previous year will be cancelled in this paper we analyse the consequences of this new cancellation mechanism using numerical analysis we show that additional national abatement measures now have the potential to reduce total eu ets emissions a key insight is that for this to happen domestic emission reductions must occur early how early depends crucially on how the future demand for allowances evolve to facilitate an understanding of the rather complex system the reformed eu ets constitutes we present a series of extensions to the analysis to show how the results are affected by for example future emission levels technological development optimising agents and speculative trading in allowances