does microfinance change informal lending in village economies evidence from bangladesh this paper examines how availability of microfinance influences households borrowing from informal sources in village economies it uses a unique household level panel data set which spans more than two decades 1987 2008 from rural bangladesh we find that households access to microfinance reduces the incidence of borrowing from informal sources but not the amount of borrowing we find that less poor households benefit more in terms of reducing their reliance on informal borrowing and that the benefit accrues over time we also find that having access to microfinance increases women s informal borrowing for small consumption usage without facilitating access to new business opportunities

the microfinance promise in the past decade microfinance programs have demonstrated that it is possible to lend to low income households while maintaining high repayment rates even without requiring collateral the programs promise a revolution in approaches to alleviating poverty and spreading financial services and millions of poor households are served globally a growing body of economic theory demonstrates how new contractual forms offer a key to microfinance success particularly the use of group lending contracts with joint liability for the most part however high repayment rates have not translated into profits and studies of impacts on poverty yield a mixed picture in describing emerging tensions the paper highlights the diversity of innovative mechanisms beyond group lending contracts the measurement of financial sustainability the estimation of economic and social impacts the costs and benefits of subsidization and the potential to reduce poverty through savings programs rather than just credit the promise of microfinance has pushed far ahead of the evidence and an agenda is put forward for addressing critical empirical gaps and sharpening the terms of policy discussion

assessing the performance of renewable electricity support instruments abstract the performance of feed in tariffs and tradable certificates is assessed on criteria of efficacy efficiency equity and institutional feasibility in the early stage of transition to an energy system based entirely on renewable energy supplies renewable electricity can only thrive if support takes into account the specific technical economic and political problems which result from embedding this electricity in conventional power systems whose technology organizational structure environmental responsibility and general mission differ profoundly from the emerging renewable based system support schemes need to capture the diversity of power supplies the variable nature of some renewable supplies and their different attributes for the purposes of public policy they must take into account the variety of generators including small decentralized generation emerging in a renewable based system and the new relationships between generators and customers renewable energy policies need a clear point of reference because the incumbent power systems are not sustainable they must adapt to the requirements of the renewable ones not the other way round incumbent systems carry the responsibility of paying the transition something that corresponds best with the polluter pays principle

uniqueness of market equilibrium on a network a peak load pricing approach abstract in this paper we establish conditions under which uniqueness of market equilibrium is obtained in a setup where prior to trading of electricity transmission capacities between different market regions are fixed in our setup firms facing fluctuating demand decide on the size and location of production facilities they make production decisions constrained by the invested capacities taking into account that market prices partially reflect scarce transmission capacities between the different market zones for this type of peak load pricing model on a network we state general conditions for existence and uniqueness of the market equilibrium and provide a characterization of equilibrium investment and production the presented analysis covers the cases of perfect competition and monopoly the case of strategic firms is approximated by a conjectural variations approach our result is a prerequisite for analyzing regulatory policy options with computational multilevel equilibrium models since uniqueness of the equilibrium at lower levels is of key importance when solving these models thus our paper contributes to an evolving strand of literature that analyzes regulatory policy based on computational multilevel equilibrium models and aims at taking into account individual objectives of various agents among them not only generators and customers but also e g the regulator deciding on network expansion

introduction imperfect information and rural credit markets puzzles and policy perspectives rural credit markets have been at the center of policy intervention in developing countries over the past forty years many governments supported by multilateral and bilateral aid agencies have devoted considerable resources to supplying cheap credit to farmers in a myriad of institutional settings the results of many of these interventions have been disappointing and one explanation for this must be that they were based on an inadequate understanding of the workings of rural credit markets the articles in this symposium issue are devoted to empirical and theoretical investigations of rural credit markets in the framework of the imperfect information paradigm the authors show how this framework is useful not only in explaining puzzling features of these markets but also in providing a policy perspective to assess the successes and failures of specific interventions

exploring investment potential in a context of nuclear phase out uncertainty perfect vs imperfect electricity markets abstract in view of the ongoing nuclear power debate in europe we analyze how uncertainty about a nuclear phase out affects investment capacity decisions by belgian electricity suppliers depending on the type of market structure considered to achieve this goal we build a structural model and solve it by using game theoretic and optimization approaches in order to consider the different types of market structure namely oligopoly simplified to a duopoly in this case and the two extremes of the competition spectrum i e monopoly and perfect competition we show that higher levels of investment in new electricity generation capacity are reached with decreasing probability of nuclear license extension and or with higher levels of competition in the market moreover investments in perfectly competitive markets are less influenced by changes in the probability of future nuclear license extension resulting in a more stable long term investment climate however the consideration of possible changes in market structure and gradual nuclear phase out is crucial in order to not overestimate investment potential in belgium

why are informal loans still a big deal evidence from north east thailand abstractthis article examines the use and benefit of informal loans for different income groups of rural households in north east thailand using a difference in differences estimation approach which is later complemented by propensity score matching the article shows that different household groups profit from informal loans in different ways poor households increase their asset endowment and in particular farming assets whereas rich households food consumption rises especially if households borrow due to a shock by showing that informal loans serve different households for different purposes this article provides an explanation why they still play an important role

an empirical investigation of rationing constraints in rural credit markets in india abstract the literature on rural credit markets has generally assumed that households are rationed in their access to subsidized formal credit the validity of this assumption depends on the level of effective demand for formal credit in turn a function of the demand for credit and its availability from informal sources this paper estimates the demand and the sector specific costs of credit and hence the extent of formal sector rationing through an analysis of household participation in both the formal and the informal credit sectors the results show that the extent of rationing is considerably less than what is conventionally assumed

germany s solar cell promotion dark clouds on the horizon abstract this article demonstrates that the large feed in tariffs currently guaranteed for solar electricity in germany constitute a subsidization regime that threatens to reach a level comparable to that of german hard coal production a notoriously outstanding example of misguided political intervention yet as a consequence of the coexistence of the german renewable energy sources act eeg and the eu emissions trading scheme ets the increased use of renewable energy technologies does not imply any additional emission reductions beyond those already achieved by ets alone similarly disappointing is the net employment balance which is likely to be negative if one takes into account the opportunity cost of this form of solar photovoltaic pv support along the lines of the international energy agency iea 2007 energy policies of iea countries germany 2007 review international energy agency oecd paris p 77 we recommend the immediate and drastic reduction of the magnitude of the feed in tariffs granted for solar based electricity ultimately producing electricity on this basis is among the most expensive greenhouse gas abatement options

how stable is the predictive power of the yield curve evidence from germany and the united states empirical research over the last decade has uncovered predictive relationships between the slope of the yield curve and subsequent real activity and inflation some of these relationships are highly significant but their theoretical motivations suggest that they may not be stable over time we use recent econometric techniques for break testing to examine whether the empirical relationships are in fact stable we consider continuous models which predict either economic growth or inflation and binary models which predict either recessions or inflationary pressure in each case we draw on evidence from germany and the united states models that predict real activity are somewhat more stable than those that predict inflation and binary models are more stable than continuous models the model that predicts recessions is stable over our full sample period in both germany and the united states

interaction between the formal and informal financial sectors the asian experience abstract the nature of the interaction between the formal and informal financial sectors in developing countries is a subject with important policy implications it has implications for the future of informal finance as the formal sector expands in the long term will the informal sector wither away as the traditional view of financial dualism assumes or will it continue to play an important complementary role perhaps even growing in absolute size second the pattern of two major policy approaches often advocated toward the informal sector offering it stronger competition so as to induce it to improve its terms and promoting linkages with it so as to take advantage of its lower transactions costs in reaching smaller and poorer borrowers third the existence of a large informal sector has implications for the efficacy of monetary and credit policy in achieving stabilization objectives fourth the interaction between the formal and informal financial sectors also has implications for the effects of financial liberalization through removing restrictions on the deposit rate of interest this paper draws on the experience of asian countries to address these issues

interest rate pass through and monetary transmission evidence from individual financial institutions retail rates official interest rate changes should influence short rates on money market instruments and retail products such as deposit accounts and mortgages but complete pass through is often taken for granted this paper provides a theoretical and econometric framework for assessing the evidence for this assumption using seventeen years of monthly data for rates on thirteen deposit and mortgage products offered by individual uk financial institutions the methodology allows for asymmetries and non linearities in adjustment and the results show that the speed of adjustment in retail rates depends on whether the perceived gap between retail and base rates is widening or narrowing

the empirics of microfinance what do we know microfinance has received a lot of attention recently both from policy makers as well as in academic circles two of the main topics that have been hotly debated are explaining joint liability group lending and its implications for reducing information asymmetries and the trade off between the financial sustainability and outreach of microfinance programmes this feature contains three novel empirical contributions providing new insights with respect to why and how joint liability group lending works it also contains the first large scale systematic analysis of the trade off between financial performance and outreach of microfinance institutions

formal and informal credit markets in egypt this paper examines empirically the markets for formal and informal credit in egypt using a dataset specifically collected for the purpose it examines what factors determine whether or not a person borrows from the informal sector using a probit analysis the paper then conducts a similar exercise for the informal financial sector and seeks to examine whether any link between borrowing in the formal and the informal financial sectors exists conclusions are then drawn as to the role of informal financial markets in the development process this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

symbiosis vs crowding out the interaction of formal and informal credit markets in developing countries abstract it is a common observation in many developing countries that enterprises are active borrowers in both formal and informal credit markets we propose a model in which the formal sector s superior ability in deposit mobilization is traded off against the informational advantage that lenders in the informal sector enjoy the formal sector can screen borrowers by providing only partial financing for projects thereby forcing borrowers to resort to the informal sector for the remainder of the loan we use the model to predict how the market structure responds to changes in the environment and we consider the policy implications of various forms of government intervention

investment in electricity markets with asymmetric technologies abstract capacity investments in electricity markets is one of the main issues in the restructuring process to ensure competition and enhance system security of networks we study competition between hydro and thermal electricity generators under demand uncertainty producers compete in quantities and each is constrained the thermal generator by capacity and the hydro generator by water availability we analyze a two period game emphasizing the incentives for capacity investments by the thermal generator we characterize both markov perfect and open loop equilibria in the markov perfect equilibrium investment is discontinuous in initial capacity and higher than it is in the open loop equilibrium however since there are two distortions in the model equilibrium investment can be either higher or lower than the efficient investment

the role of technological availability for the distributive impacts of climate change mitigation policy the impacts of the availability of low carbon technologies on the regional distribution of mitigation costs are analyzed in a global multi regional integrated assessment model three effects on regional consumption losses are distinguished domestic measures trade of fossil energy carriers and trade of emission permits key results are i gdp losses and a redirection of investments in the energy system towards capital intensive technologies are major contributions to regional consumption losses ii a devaluation of tradable fossil energy endowments contributes largely to the mitigation costs of fossil fuel exporters iii in case of reduced availability of low carbon technologies the permit market volume and associated monetary redistributions increase the results suggest that the availability of a broad portfolio of low carbon technologies could facilitate negotiations on the permit allocation scheme in a global cap and trade system

do village funds improve access to finance evidence from thailand summary this paper examines whether recently introduced village funds one of the largest microfinance programs ever implemented improve access to finance village funds are analyzed in a cross sectional approach in comparison to competing financial institutions we find first that they reach the target group of lower income households better than formal financial institutions second village funds provide loans to those kinds of borrowers who tend to be customers of informal financial institutions third village funds help to reduce credit constraints thus village funds provide services in the intended direction albeit to a seemingly limited degree

human scale economics economic growth and poverty reduction in northeastern thailand under what conditions does economic growth benefit the poor one way to answer this question is to identify and compare positive and negative outlier areas those that experience greater and lesser poverty reduction respectively compared to what was anticipated given their levels of economic growth the more similar these areas the more leverage there is to unearth the factors that allow the poor to benefit from growth in this paper we employ an inductive approach to glean possible pathways out of poverty from two highly similar underdeveloped neighboring provinces in northeastern thailand using extensive fieldwork and interviews we explore factors that can account for one province reducing poverty at a quicker pace than expected even as the other failed to channel its faster growth into significant poverty reduction our study finds that in surin province because a strong network of local ngos was working closely with provincial leadership national policies that targeted the poor found fertile ground and thrived small scale low tech rural based initiatives including organic rice handicraft production and rural tourism helped drive initially high levels of poverty down though many in si saket also pursued many of these initiatives they were structured in ways that promoted economic growth but largely prevented poor farmers from benefitting further research can examine whether this kind of micro oriented path to rapid rural poverty reduction is useful in other contexts

security justice and the energy crossroads assessing the implications of the nuclear phase out in germany abstract the nuclear melt down in fukushima resulted in diverging energy policy decisions across the world where germany decided to opt out of nuclear electricity production yet the government s decision making framework for energy policy decisions does not accurately reflect important drivers for the strategy change this paper presents the energy crossroads framework as a more comprehensive tool to analyse the drivers and impacts of the nuclear phase out 20 expert interviews were performed across business participants as well as policy makers in the national and international energy context results show that germany has adopted an environmental justice rather than energy security stance in their nuclear phase out policy with significant long term consequences

nuclear renaissance public perception and design criteria an exploratory review abstract there is currently an international drive to build new nuclear power plants bringing about what is being termed a nuclear renaissance however the public perception of nuclear energy has historically been and continues to be a key issue particularly in light of the fukushima nuclear incident this paper discusses the disparity between perceived and calculated risks based on the last four decades of research into risk perception the leading psychological and sociological theories psychometric paradigm and cultural theory respectively are critically reviewed the authors then argue that a new nuclear build policy that promotes a broader approach to design incorporating a wider range of stakeholder inputs including that of the lay public may provide a means for reducing the perceived risk of a nuclear plant further research towards such a new approach to design is proposed based on integrating expert and lay stakeholder inputs and taking into account broader socio cultural factors whilst maintaining the necessary emphasis on safety technological development economics and environmental sustainability

is there a connection between monetary unification and real economic integration evidence from regime switching stationarity tests abstract we investigate the extent of real convergence among g7 economies in terms of long run real interest parity a novel approach is applied where unit root tests of real interest differentials are embedded within a markov regime switching framework whereas standard univariate unit root tests provide little support for parity we find real convergence is present after allowing for regime switches in real interest misalignments however differentials across members of the euro zone are likely to exhibit greater persistence despite nominal convergence it is non sequitur to infer from monetary unification that nominal convergence is necessarily conducive to real interest realignments or preventive of misalignments

the predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in europe and the united states implications for the european central bank abstract this paper examines the relationship of the term structure of interest rates to monetary policy instruments and to subsequent real activity and inflation in both europe and the united states the results show that monetary policy is an important determinant of the term structure spread but is unlikely to be the only determinant in addition there is significant predictive power for both real activity and inflation the yield curve is thus a simple and accurate measure that should be viewed as one piece of useful information which along with other information can be used to help guide european monetary policy

predicting canadian recessions using dynamic probit modelling approaches this paper examines the ability of various financial and macroeconomic variables to forecast canadian recessions it evaluates four model specifications including the advanced dynamic autoregressive dynamic autoregressive probit models as well as the conventional static probit model the empirical results highlight several significant recession predictors notably the government bond yield spread growth rates of the housing starts the real money supply and the composite index of leading indicators both the in sample and out of sample results suggest that the forecasting performance of the four probit models is mixed the dynamic and dynamic autoregressive probit models are better in predicting the duration of recessions while the static and autoregressive probit models are better in forecasting the peaks of business cycles hence the advanced dynamic models and the conventional static probit model can complement one another to provide more accurate forecasts for the duration and turning points of business cycles ce texte examine la capacite de differentes variables financieres et macroeconomiques a predire les recessions canadiennes on examine quatre specifications du modele probit le modele dynamique avance le modele autoregressif le modele dynamique autoregressif ainsi que le modele statique conventionnel les resultats empiriques soulignent plusieurs predicteurs significatifs notamment l etalement des taux de rendement des obligations gouvernementales les taux de croissance des mises en chantier des maisons l offre de monnaie reelle et l indice composite avance les resultats a la fois pour des estimations basees sur l echantillon ou hors echantillon suggerent que la performance previsionnelle des quatre modeles probit n est pas toujours coherente les modeles dynamique et dynamique autoregressif performent mieux dans la prevision de la duree des recessions alors que les modeles statique et autoregressif font un meilleur travail dans la prevision des sommets des cycles d affaires les modeles dynamique avance et conventionnel se completent en ce qu ils fournissent des donnees plus precises sur la duree et et les points tournants des cycles d affaires

predicting u s recessions financial variables as leading indicators this paper examines the out of sample performance of various financial variables as predictors of u s recessions series such as interest rates and spreads stock prices and monetary aggregates are evaluated individually and in comparison with other financial and nonfinancial indicators the analysis focuses on out of sample performance from one to eight quarters ahead results show that stock prices are useful with one to three quarter horizons as are some well known macroeconomic indicators beyond one quarter however the slope of the yield curve emerges as the clear individual choice and typically performs better by itself out of sample than in conjunction with other variables

the term structure spread and future changes in long and short rates in the g7 countries abstract according to the expectations hypothesis when the spread between long and short rates widens next quarter s long rate should rise in the united states however long rates decline instead of rising this anomaly is also present in canada the uk germany and japan four of the additional six g7 countries nevertheless in contrast to the us where long rates appear to overreact to expected future developments the anomalous short run movement of long rates in these other g7 countries is caused by an additive white noise error on long rates that does not materially affect the information in their term structure

empirical measurement of credit rationing in agriculture a methodological survey empirical analysis of rural credit market failure has been of key scientific and political interest in recent years the aim of this article is to give an overview of the various methods for measuring credit rationing that are employed in the literature furthermore the methods are subjected to a comparative evaluation of their specific strengths or shortcomings six approaches are distinguished measurement of loan transaction costs analysis of qualitative information collected in interviews analysis of quantitative information collected in interviews using the credit limit concept analysis of spill over effects with regard to secondary credit sources econometric household modeling and the econometric analysis of dynamic investment decisions an explicit comparison with a first best solution is impossible in the first three approaches since they essentially rely on a subjective assessment of borrowers access to credit based on qualitative or quantitative indicators the fifth and sixth approaches allow a rigorous interpretation in the framework of neoclassical equilibrium theory the fourth approach takes an intermediate position since spill over on segmented loan markets reveals a willingness to pay with regard to the supposedly less expensive but rationed primary source the approaches are fairly data demanding in general usually requiring specific data on loan transactions even so most approaches are applicable to cross sectional household data with the exception of the first all methods surveyed might plausibly be used to empirically detect credit rationing

household sectoral choice and effective demand for rural credit in india an analysis of the icrisat data from three indian villages raises concern about the extent of rationing mechanism inhibiting the spread of formal credit in rural india where a significant proportion of households do not have any outstanding loan or borrow from the informal sector only a limited dependent econometric analysis of the factors jointly determining household sectoral choice and effective demand for informal loan conditional on whether a formal loan is available suggests that compared to formal loan easy and adequate access and prompt recovery are significant determinants of the popularity and viability of informal rural credit among sample households also some households substitute labour income to ease the extent of credit thus rationing of the formal credit is not the only factor inhibiting the spread of formal credit in the study villages

the uniqueness of the energy security justice and governance problem this article argues that among all policy fields exhibiting externalities of a global scale energy stands out on four dimensions vertical complexity horizontal complexity higher entailed costs and stronger path dependency these structural attributes are at odds with contemporary key challenges of energy security energy justice and low carbon energy transition with regard to the latter energy governance challenges occur related to unclear levels of authority and weak resilience this has implications for energy scholarship specifically relating to the political economy of energy transitions discussions about common pool resources systems analysis and other neighboring disciplines

providing adequate economic incentives for bioenergies with co2 capture and geological storage abstract knowing that carbon capture and storage ccs could play an important role in reducing emissions it is important to have a good understanding of this role and the importance of environmental policies to support carbon capture and geological storage from bioenergies beccs to date ccs technologies are not deployed on a commercial level and policy instruments should be used to provide incentives to firms to use these technologies to reduce pollution the aim of this paper is to compare the cost efficiency of several incentive based instruments a fossil fuel tax an emissions tax a cap and trade system and a subsidy on captured emissions needed to spur the adoption of ccs and beccs using a dynamic general equilibrium model this type of model has become the standard for assessing economy wide impacts of environmental and technological policies the study shows that beccs will be deployed only if a specific subsidy per unit of biomass emissions captured with a ccs technology is available we show also that the two most cost efficient instruments for achieving a given emissions reduction target are a specific subsidy that rewards captured emissions and a carbon tax whose revenues are recycled to subsidize beccs

probability predictions of rising real gdp growth and inflation the usefulness of monetary indicators several recent studies have focused on the predictive power of the yield spread for future economic activity the current paper reformulates the work of estrella and mishkin 1998 by focusing on the usefulness of monetary variables for generating probability predictions of rising or falling real gdp growth and inflation besides redefining the dependent variables the independent monetary variables are allowed to include lagged information also the current paper considers the usefulness of the divisia monetary aggregates in the context of probit models for predicting the probability that real gdp growth or inflation will be increasing

price premium for high efficiency refrigerators and calculation of price elasticities for close substitutes a methodology using hedonic pricing and demand systems this article uses the hedonic pricing method to estimate the price premium paid for the highest energy efficiency label a in the refrigerators market of the basque autonomous community spain the estimated figure is 8 9 of the final price or about 60 euro which represents one third of the energy savings that a consumer gets during the lifetime of a refrigerator with the highest energy efficiency label this figure is then combined with the linear version of the almost ideal demand system la aids to obtain own and cross price elasticities of demand the information presented here is useful for policy design and analysis the results indicate that the demand for refrigerators with the highest energy efficiency label is highly sensitive to price variations

a multi country study of the information in the shorter maturity term structure about future inflation abstract empirical analysis of data from ten oecd countries indicates that except for france the united kingdom and germany the shorter maturity term structure does not contain a great deal of information about the future path of inflation on the other hand except for the united kingdom there is a great deal of information in the term structure of nominal interest rates at shorter maturities about the term structure of real interest rates these results are explained by differences in the relative variability of expected future inflation changes and real term structure slopes for the different countries

the real interest rate a multi country empirical study how real interest rates behave over time is critical to our understanding of many macroeconomic issues and much recent research has pursued this question very little of the research however has focused on real interest rates outside the united states this paper is an empirical exploration of real interest rate movements in seven oecd countries from 1967 ii to 1979 ii further research is needed on real rates in other countries for several reasons not only are measures of foreign real rates of interest in their ownright but extending an analysis of real rates to other countries also has the following additional benefits it can generate more powerful statistical tests of propositions previously tested on u s data and yield information on whether results found for the u s hold up in other countries this study pursues several questions that have arisen naturally from this earlier work is the hypothesis that the real rate is constant rejected when the analysis is extended to other countries does the real rate decline with increased inflation and money growth in other countries besides the united states how reliable is the fisher effect in which nominal interestrates reflect changes in expected inflation are movements in nominal interest rates a reliable indicator of movements in real rates what kind of variationsin real interest rates are there in different countries have real rates declined from the 60s to the 70s for other countries besides the u s this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

a little at a time the use of regularly scheduled repayments in microfinance programs abstract informal lenders appear to be thriving even in regions where microfinance institutions mfis such as the grameen bank have established lending programs we suggest that an explanation for this well documented observation lies in the ubiquitous use of regularly scheduled repayments by mfis borrowers are typically required to repay their loans in tightly structured installments beginning soon after loan disbursement this little remarked aspect of the repayment schedule is usually explained as inculcating fiscal discipline among borrowers we argue that an alternative rationale for this loan repayment structure lies in the difficulty of monitoring borrowers actions the potential for moral hazard leads mfis to use innovative mechanisms such as regularly scheduled repayments which indirectly coopt the better informed informal lenders conversely this installment repayment structure allows informal lenders to survive further we show that this linkage can not only expand the volume of informal lending but may also raise the interest rate in the informal sector

on risk rationality and the predictive ability of european short term adjusted yield spreads abstract in this paper a rolling vector error correction model vecm is proposed to construct measures of the market s time varying conditional expectations of the 3 month money rates starting 13 weeks hence for several major ems member countries vecm based predictions provide the basis for computing ex ante out of sample estimates of the term premia these term premia are then used to adjust the yield spreads as a prelude to investigating their ability to predict future interest rates the source s of the yield spread bias are discussed while the expectations hypothesis is resoundingly rejected using the standard test specification yield spreads adjusted for time varying term premia are found to possess substantial predictive ability and in many instances the expectations hypothesis is not rejected the robustness of the results across the different european money markets and sample periods is highly encouraging the test results underscore the importance of incorporating into the test specification the equilibrium cointegrating constraints if they exist jel g15 1997 elsevier science ltd

inflation real returns and capital investment we find evidence for the hypothesis of mundell 1963 and tobin 1965 that the expected real return component of interest rates is negatively related to the expected inflation component in the mundell tobin model the variation in expected real returns is caused by the variation in expected inflation our evidence suggests however that the variation in expected real returns is more fundamentally an outcome of the capital expenditures process equilibrium expected real returns vary directly with capital expenditures in order to induce equilibrium allocations of resources between consumption and investment this positive relation between expected real returns and real activity which comes out of the real sector combines with a negative relation between expected inflation and real activity which is traced to the monetary sector thus inducing the negative relation between expected inflation and expected real returns predicted by mundell and tobin but explained in terms of a model much different from theirs

green energy market development in germany effective public policy and emerging customer demand this paper reviews the development of renewable energy in germany from 1973 to 2003 it investigates the relative importance of energy policy and green power marketing in shaping the renewable energy market more than a decade of consistent policy support for renewables under the feed in law streg and its successor eeg has been an important driver for increasing renewable electricity generation to date putting the country in a better position than most of its peers when it comes to achieving european union targets for renewable energy green power marketing driven by customer demand on the other hand is growing but has had limited measurable impact so far we discuss potential intangible benefits of green power marketing and scenarios for future market development the paper concludes with lessons that can be learned from the german case for policy design and market development in other countries

the merit order effect a detailed analysis of the price effect of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in germany the german feed in support of electricity generation from renewable energy sources has led to high growth rates of the supported technologies critics state that the costs for consumers are too high an important aspect to be considered in the discussion is the price effect created by renewable electricity generation this paper seeks to analyse the impact of privileged renewable electricity generation on the electricity market in germany the central aspect to be analysed is the impact of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices the results generated by an agent based simulation platform indicate that the financial volume of the price reduction is considerable in the short run this gives rise to a distributional effect which creates savings for the demand side by reducing generator profits in the case of the year 2006 the volume of the merit order effect exceeds the volume of the net support payments for renewable electricity generation which have to be paid by consumers

technology selection and capacity investment under uncertainty abstract we analyze the problem of technology selection and capacity investment for electricity generation in a competitive environment under uncertainty adopting a nash cournot competition model we consider the marginal cost as the uncertain parameter although the results can be easily generalized to other sources of uncertainty such as a load curve in the model firms make three different decisions i the portfolio of technologies ii each technology s capacity and iii the technology s production level for every scenario the decisions related to the portfolio and capacity are ex ante and the production level is ex post to the realization of uncertainty we discuss open and closed loop models with the aim to understand the relationship between different technologies cost structures and the portfolio of generation technologies adopted by firms in equilibrium for a competitive setting to the best of our knowledge this paper is the first not only to explicitly discuss the relation between costs and generation portfolio but also to allow firms to choose a portfolio of technologies we show that portfolio diversification arises even with risk neutral firms and technologies with different cost expectations we also investigate conditions on the probability and cost under which different equilibria of the game arise

access to finance an unfinished agenda recent data compilations show that many poor and non poor people in many developing countries face a high degree of financial exclusion and high barriers in access to finance theory and empirical evidence point to the critical role that improved access to finance has in promoting growth and reducing income inequality an extensive literature shows the channels through which finance promotes enterprise growth and improves aggregate resource allocation there is less evidence at the household level however and on the effectiveness of policies to overcome financial exclusion the article summarizes recent efforts to measure and analyze the impact of access to finance and discusses the unfinished research agenda

solar feed in tariffs and the merit order effect a study of the german electricity market abstract this study investigates the merit order effect moe of the recent years implementation of solar power in germany market clearing electricity prices and production levels are compared for the years 2009 2011 and a model for the relationship between the electricity price and price sensitive electricity production is developed and applied to predict electricity prices in germany from july 2010 to july 2011 with and without solar electricity generation seg the results show that the seg has caused a 7 reduction in average electricity prices for this period the average daily maximum price and daily price variation are also found to decrease by 13 and 23 respectively when taking the moe into account the net consumer s cost of the solar feed in tariff fit system is found to be 23 less than the charge listed in the electricity bill the german fit policy for solar power has been subject to considerable public debate and a common argument brought up in disfavor of the system is the high cost for the consumers in this study we demonstrate the importance of including the moe when evaluating the total costs and benefits of the fit policy mechanism

trends in income and price elasticities of transport demand 1850 2010 the purpose of this paper is to estimate trends in income and price elasticities and to offer insights for the future growth in transport use with particular emphasis on the impact of energy and technological transitions the results indicate that income and price elasticities of passenger transport demand in the united kingdom were very large 3 1 and 1 5 respectively in the mid nineteenth century and declined since then in 2010 long run income and price elasticity of aggregate land transport demand were estimated to be 0 8 and 0 6 these trends suggest that future elasticities related to transport demand in developed economies may decline very gradually and in developing economies where elasticities are often larger they will probably decline more rapidly as the economies develop because of the declining trends in elasticities future energy and technological transitions are not likely to generate the growth rates in energy consumption that occurred following transitions in the nineteenth century nevertheless energy and technological transitions such as the car and the airplane appear to have delayed and probably will delay declining trends in income and price elasticity of aggregate land transport demand

the german energy transition as a regime shift abstract in this paper i use the resilience framework to interpret the project of transforming the german energy system into a renewable energy sources res based system the so called energiewende as a regime shift this regime shift comprises several transformations which are currently altering the technological political and economic system structure to build my argument i first sketch how technological political and economic developments reduced the resilience of the conventional fossil nuclear energy regime and created a new res regime second i depict recent changes in german public discourse and energy policy as the shift to the res regime third i highlight the challenges involved with increasing the resilience of the res regime in particular sufficient resilience of the electricity transmission grid appears to be crucial for facilitating the transformation of the whole energy system

policies and impact an analysis of village level microfinance institutions this paper uses variation in policies and institutional characteristics to evaluate the impacts of village level microfinance institutions in rural thailand to identify impacts we use policies related to the successful unsuccessful provision of services as exogenous variation in effective financial intermediation we find that institutions particularly those with good policies can promote asset growth consumption smoothing and occupational mobility and can decrease moneylender reliance specifically cash lending institutions production credit groups and especially women s groups are successful in providing intermediation and its benefits to members while buffalo banks and rice banks are not the policies identified as important to intermediation and benefits the provision of savings services especially pledged savings accounts emergency services and training and advice surprisingly much publicized policies such as joint liability default consequences or repayment frequency had no measured impacts jel 012 016

managing the energy trilemma the case of indonesia abstract this article argues that a central challenge for energy governance is how to manage a complex energy trilemma involving the sometimes competing demands of energy security climate change mitigation and particularly in developing countries energy poverty it suggests that tensions between the horns of the trilemma in large part explain indonesia s current profoundly suboptimal energy policy while these tensions are not inherently incapable of resolution such resolution would require good governance at both state and global levels the possibilities for and obstacles confronting such governance are explored and provisional solutions canvassed

the role of smart metering and decentralized electricity storage for smart grids the importance of positive externalities because of its fluctuating nature the feed in of renewable energy sources into low voltage distribution grids complicates the balancing of demand and supply this carries the risk of grid instabilities causing damage to electronic devices and power outages which eventually lead to deadweight losses in principle the problems arising from fluctuating feed in can be solved by increasing demand elasticity or decoupling generation and consumption for the first an advanced metering infrastructure and for the second decentralized electricity storage are considered core enablers however to date the diffusion of these future smart grids core components is low the present study provides new insights for understanding and overcoming diffusion barriers for this purpose a qualitative research approach was chosen the most important stakeholders as well as related private costs and benefits are identified the findings show that both of these smart grid components are widely considered beneficial to society by experts however because the numerous private benefits are widely distributed among distinct players socially desired investments are hampered by positive externalities the importance of well designed and consistent regulatory and legal frameworks that provide economic incentives to involved stakeholders is highlighted in the results

a multicountry comparison of term structure forecasts at long horizons abstract this paper extends previous work on the information in the u s term structure at longer maturities to britain west germany and switzerland we find strong evidence that the term structure does have significant ability to forecast changes in inflation particularly at long maturities on the other hand the ability of the term structure to forecast changes in one year interest rates is somewhat weaker only at the very longest horizon five years is there significant forecasting ability for interest rate changes

an ex post analysis of the effect of renewables and cogeneration on spanish electricity prices abstract growing concerns about climate change and energy dependence are driving specific policies to support renewable or more efficient energy sources such as cogeneration in many regions particularly in the production of electricity these policies have a non negligible cost and therefore a careful assessment of their impacts seems necessary in particular one of the most debated impacts is their effect on electricity prices for which there have been some ex ante studies but few ex post studies this article presents a full ex post empirical analysis by looking at use of technologies and hourly electricity prices for 2005 2009 in spain to study the effects that the introduction of renewable electricity and cogeneration has had on wholesale electricity prices it is particularly interesting to perform this study in spain where an active system of public support to renewables and cogeneration has led to a considerable expansion of these energy sources and electricity pricing is at the center of intense debate the paper reports that a marginal increase of 1 gwh of electricity production using renewables and cogeneration is associated with a reduction of almost 2 per mwh in electricity prices around 4 of the average price for the analyzed period

a re examination of the predictability of economic activity using the yield spread this paper revisits the yield spread s usefulness for predicting future real gdp growth we show that the contribution of the spread can be decomposed into the effect of expected future changes in short rates and the effect of the term premium we find that both factors are relevant for predicting real gdp growth but the respective contributions differ we investigate whether the cyclical behavior of interest rate volatility could account for either or both effects we find that while volatility displays important correlations with both the term structure of interest rates and gdp it does not appear to account for the yield spread s usefulness for predicting gdp growth

the thai rural credit system public subsidies private information and segmented markets thailand has sought to increase farmers access to credit by government intervention in 1966 it created a government agricultural bank to lend solely to farm households and beginning in the late 1970s it required commercial banks to lend heavily in the rural sector either directly or by making deposits in the agricultural bank the result was an enormous expansion of credit in the rural sector but because formal lenders were either unable or unwilling to solve the information problems involved in the broad range of rural credit transactions the informal credit sector wbich charged interest rates many times higher than the formal sector continued to thrive using household surveys and surveys of moneylenders this article provides a detailed analysis of the ways in which lenders in the informal sector have solved the information problems of providing credit the authors argue that the informal sector is competitive and that high interest rates reflect high information costs not the scarcity of funds this article reports on a set of investigations of the impact of thai government policies to expand bank lending in the rural sector their purpose was to increase farmers access to capital and reduce their dependence on informal lenders fifteen years after the principal government measures were introduced we hope to be able to answer several questions how has the expansion of formal sector lending affected the informal sector did the increase in the supply of formal credit reduce the business of informal lenders and lower interest rates in the informal market what has been the performance of the formal credit system in terms of coverage efficiency and incidence lacking time series data on the informal sector we cannot give a direct answer to these questions but we can with confidence say that the informal lenders are still very much alive by examining the behavior of the rural credit market at the present time we can throw an indirect light on what transpired over the last fifteen years our main findings are the following on the basis of our 1984 85 survey of households and moneylenders

indicators for energy security the concept of energy security is widely used yet there is no consensus on its precise interpretation in this research we have provided an overview of available indicators for long term security of supply sos we distinguished four dimensions of energy security that relate to the availability accessibility affordability and acceptability of energy and classified indicators for energy security according to this taxonomy there is no one ideal indicator as the notion of energy security is highly context dependent rather applying multiple indicators leads to a broader understanding incorporating these indicators in model based scenario analysis showed accelerated depletion of currently known fossil resources due to increasing global demand coupled with increasing spatial discrepancy between consumption and production international trade in energy carriers is projected to have increased by 142 in 2050 compared to 2008 oil production is projected to become increasingly concentrated in a few countries up to 2030 after which production from other regions diversifies the market under stringent climate policies this diversification may not occur due to reduced demand for oil possible benefits of climate policy include increased fuel diversity and slower depletion of fossil resources

inflation and real interest rates on assets with different risk characteristics given the importance of ex ante real interest rates to economic decision making it is no surprise that much empirical research focuses on them 1 several recent studies find that the ex ante real returns for short term u s treasury securities are not constant and are negatively correlated both with inflation and with nominal interest rates this paper examines the extent to which these findings hold for assets of longer maturity are robust with respect to the choice of price index and are stable over time we expand the set of assets studied to include those of longer maturity both publicly and privately issued for two reasons first their ex ante real returns may differ substantially from that of a short term nominally riskless security second because longer maturity assets have risk characteristics closer to capital their ex ante real returns are potentially more relevant for investment and savings decisions we explore the use of various price indices because the index used in most studies the consumer price index severely overstates inflation during the 1970s as a result of its inappropriate treatment of residential housing costs 2 this overstatement casts doubt on an important finding of previous studies that there are long stretches of time during the 1970s when ex ante real rates are significantly negative given the existence of holding costs for the goods relevant to most price indices and the absence of a riskless real return no arbitrage conditions are violated by a negative ex ante real rate however its persistence is problematical because asset holders are typically assumed to have a positive rate of time preference which ensures a positive ex ante real rate in the long run we find that before 1979 a negative relationship of ex ante real rates both with inflation and with nominal interest rates appears for the longer maturity assets as well as the short term nominally riskless asset indeed the relationship grows

growth and competition in renewable energy industries insights from an integrated assessment model with strategic firms abstract this article describes the development implementation and application of an integrated assessment modeling framework featuring renewable technology markets with producers engaged in cournot competition scenario results reveal how climate policy and inter firm learning spillovers interact with market structure to affect wind and solar pv prices adoption producer profits and carbon emissions competitive markets yield consistently lower markups than concentrated markets leading to significantly more adoption and lower emissions widespread solar pv adoption is a key component of the largest emissions reductions but this requires substantial price reductions that only occur if the solar pv market is competitive and learning spills over across producers whether a leading firm has a profit incentive to facilitate or obstruct learning spillovers depends on the availability of cost competitive substitute technologies if such a substitute exists the firm prefers strong spillovers that help its industry compete against the substitute if not the firm prefers weak spillovers that prevent competitors in its industry from seizing market share the relationship between price and cumulative capacity is endogenous in the modeling framework regression analysis of scenario results yields price learning rates which are similar to unit production cost learning rates in competitive markets but substantially lower even negative in concentrated markets

credit availability and internal migration evidence from thailand this study investigates the relationship between borrowing and internal migration exploiting the micro finance scheme village fund in thailand it investigates the short and medium term effects o

does eva beat earnings evidence on associations with stock returns and firm values this study tests assertions that economic value added eva is more highly associated with stock returns and firm values than accrual earnings and evaluates which components of eva if any contribute to these associations relative information content tests reveal earnings to be more highly associated with returns and firm values than eva residual income or cash flow from operations incremental tests suggest that eva components add only marginally to information content beyond earnings considered together these results do not support claims that eva dominates earnings in relative information content and suggest rather that earnings generally outperforms eva

the yield curve and the macro economy across time and frequencies this paper assesses the relation between the yield curve and the main macroeconomic variables in the u s between early 1960s and 2009 across time and frequencies using wavelet analyses the shape of the yield curve is modelled by latent factors corresponding to its level slope and curvature estimated by maximum likelihood with the kalman filter the macroeconomic variables measure economic activity unemployment inflation and the fed funds rate the cross wavelet tools employed coherency and phase difference the set of variables and the length of the sample allow for a thorough appraisal of the timevariation and structural breaks in the direction intensity synchronization and periodicity of the relation between the yield curve and the macro economy our evidence establishes a number of new stylized facts on the yield curve macro relation and sheds light on several results found in the literature which could not have been achieved with analyses conducted strictly in the time domain as most of the literature or purely in the frequency domain

economics of ccs for coal plants impact of investment costs and efficiency on market diffusion in europe abstract in this paper we analyze how the development of the carbon capture and storage ccs technology used in coal fired power plants affects its market diffusion specifically we 1 show the significant variance in expectations about the economics of commercial grade ccs hard coal power plants observed in the literature 2 analyze the impact of ccs economics on electricity generation costs and 3 investigate the expected deployment of ccs in the european power sector depending on the variance of two main factors efficiency and investment cost using the bottom up electricity sector model hector simulation results show that investment costs strongly influence the market deployment of coal fired ccs power plants leading to a share of 16 in european generation capacity by 2025 with the lowest observed investment costs of 1400 kw but only 2 with the highest of 3000 kw a variation of conversion efficiency between 37 and 44 the minimum and maximum observed values only leads to a 13 15 share variation of ccs equipped power plants these findings are robust for the base case with a co 2 price of 43 t and also for sensitivities with 30 and 20 t co 2 but with a lower effect as the overall share of ccs is significantly reduced at these prices

do forecast errors or term premia really make the difference between long and short rates abstract forward rates in the term structure of interest contain predictions of future spot rates plus possibly term premia realized spot rates contain predicted spot rates plus forecast errors under rational expectations forecast errors are not predictable by forecasting spot rates using publicly available information bounds on the variation of forecast errors and term premia are obtained for one month treasury bill rates one to two thirds of the variation in the difference between forward rates and realized spot rates is due to variation in term premia

borrowing from pui to pay pom multiple borrowing and over indebtedness in rural thailand summary rural financial markets have grown rapidly in asian emerging market economies thus contributing to economic development and the reduction of poverty at the same time however the level of indebtedness of rural households has increased making households more vulnerable to shocks one of the reasons for rising household debt is the ease of borrowing simultaneously from a growing number of lending institutions this paper addresses two major questions first does borrowing from multiple sources increase rural households risk of over indebtedness second do over indebted rural households refinance their outstanding loans through multiple borrowing running the risk of becoming trapped in a debt cycle employing a dynamic random effects bivariate probit model for a unique set of longitudinal household panel data from northeast thailand this study examines the bidirectional relationship between over indebtedness and multiple borrowing to determine to what extent rural households become trapped in debt cycles on the one hand the results indicate that households in northeast thailand take on multiple loans which further increases their risk of becoming over indebted on the other hand our model results do not confirm the widespread notion that over indebted rural households use multiple loans to refinance unpayable debts

new techniques to extract market expectations from financial instruments this paper is a selective survey of new or recent methods to extract information about market expectations from asset prices for monetary policy purposes traditionally interest rates and forward exchange rates have been used to extract expected means of future interest rates exchange rates and inflation more recently these methods have been refined to rely on implied forward interest rates so as to extract expected future time paths very recently methods have been designed to extract not only the means but the whole risk neutral probability distribution from a set of option prices

what does the term structure tell us about future inflation abstract this empirical analysis indicates that for maturities of six months or less the term structure of nominal interest rates provides almost no information about the future path of inflation but does provide information about the term structure of real interest rates however as maturities lengthen to nine and twelve months the nominal term structure begins to contain information about future inflation but ceases to provide information about the real term structure these results are explained by differences in the relative variability of expected future inflation changes and real term structure slopes at different points in the term structure

the impact of the european union emission trading scheme on electricity generation sectors in order to comply with their commitments under the kyoto protocol france and germany participate to the european union emission trading scheme eu ets which concerns predominantly electricity generation sectors in this paper we seek to know if the eu ets gives appropriate economic incentives for an e cient and strong system in line with kyoto commitments because if so electricity producers in these countries should include the price of carbon in their costs functions after identifying the di erent sub periods of the eu ets during its pilot phase 2005 2007 we model the prices of various electricity contracts and look at their volatilities around their fundamentals while evaluating the correlation between the electricity prices in the two countries we finnd that electricity producers in both countries were constrained to include the carbon price in their cost functions during the rst two years of operation of the eu ets during this period german electricity producers were more constrained than their french counterparts and the inclusion of the carbon price in the cost function of electricity generation has been so much more stable in germany than in france furthermore the european market for emission allowances has increased the market power of the historical french electricity producer and has greatly contributed to the partial alignment of the wholesale price of electricity in france with those of germany

the heckman correction for sample selection and its critique this paper gives a short overview of monte carlo studies on the usefulness of heckman s 1976 1979 two step estimator for estimating selection models such models occur frequently in empirical work especially in microeconometrics when estimating wage equations or consumer expenditures it is shown that exploratory work to check for collinearity problems is strongly recommended before deciding on which estimator to apply in the absence of collinearity problems the full information maximum likelihood estimator is preferable to the limited information two step method of heckman although the latter also gives reasonable results if however collinearity problems prevail subsample ols or the two part model is the most robust amongst the simple to calculate estimators

effects of carbon dioxide capture and storage in germany on european electricity exchange and welfare in the course of european efforts to mitigate global warming the application of carbon dioxide capture and storage ccs technologies is discussed as a potential option some political opposition was raised a inter alia a by uncertainties about the effective cost of such technologies because of the cost structure of ccs power plants with high a flata investment cost and a in case of high carbon allowance prices a comparable low variable cost the application of ccs will induce a merit order effect causing a decline in electricity prices on the spot market on the one hand the reduction of electricity supply cost raises suppliersa rents while the decline of electricity prices augments consumersa surpluses these positive welfare effects tend to mitigate political opposition against ccs on the other hand the merit order effect reduces electricity suppliersa revenues as the electricity prices decline this mitigates their scope for additional investments in ccs capacity in this study we focus on the influence of ccs in germany on electricity supplier and consumer surpluses and associated impacts on the scope for investments in additional ccs capacity by means of the applied model of electricity markets influences on european electricity exchange and welfare levels are investigated

understanding the coexistence of formal and informal credit markets in piura peru summary this paper examines why farm households seek informal loans in piura peru where formal lenders offer loans at lower interest rates a panel data econometric analysis reveals that the informal sector serves various types of clients households excluded from the formal sector but also households that prefer informal loans because of lower transaction costs or lower risk an in depth examination of contract terms and loan technologies permits an accurate comparison of effective loan costs and contractual risk across sectors and reveals that proximity and economies of scope enjoyed by informal lenders enable them to substitute information intensive screening and monitoring for contractual risk and supply these various types of clients

does the use of nuclear power lead to lower electricity prices an analysis of the debate in germany with an international perspective abstract there is an ongoing discussion if it is reasonable to start using nuclear energy to extend its use or what effects its phase out could have in july 2011 four months after the nuclear accidents in japan germany decided to return to the policy of phasing out nuclear energy step by step until 2022 this policy was already decided upon in 2000 with this a decision made some nine months earlier was taken back in fall 2010 the government and parliament had approved the extension of the operating lives of its nuclear plants by at least 14 years one reason was the expected effect on the electricity price which was said to be lower with extended nuclear plant life spans however there is an ongoing debate on this argument not only in germany this article presents a critical survey of the core arguments brought forward in favour of expected future price cuts it is shown that the theoretical electricity market models used in these exercises are not adequate to reliably predict such effects furthermore evidence is presented suggesting that extending nuclear plant life spans or the commissioning of new reactors in other countries is unlikely to curb domestic electricity prices

interactions between institutional and informal credit agencies in rural india in an attempt to expand rural credit and displace the village moneylender india created a system of rural cooperatives in the 1950s and expanded branch banking into rural areas in the 1970s this article examines how these measures affected the rural market it begins with the question of how large the expansion of institutional credit has been and the extent to which it has dislodged the village and nonresident moneylenders a detailed comparison of three major surveys of the indian rural credit market suggests that in various guises the moneylender is still a major source of loans the article also examines the weak evidence on intermediation between the formal and informal sectors a formal model of the interaction between the informal moneylender and institutional lender is constructed under a variety of assumptions about the exclusivity of loan contracts and the competitive structure of the informal sector the conclusions are drawn together in the form of five proposals for public policy

determinants of credit rationing a study of informal lenders and formal credit groups in madagascar abstract previous research on the determinants of credit rationing focused exclusively on the behavior of formal lenders who contract directly with an individual borrower based on survey data from madagascar this paper presents an analysis of credit rationing by informal lenders and by members of community based groups that allocate formal group loans among themselves the results show that group members are able to obtain and to use locally available information about the applicant s creditworthiness in much the same way as informal lenders do both types of lenders use the applicant s debt servicing obligations and income as the main criteria for credit rationing this paper therefore empirically confirms theoretical arguments that community based groups have an information advantage over distant formal bank agents

short term interest rates as predictors of inflation on testing the hypothesis that the real rate of interest is constant in an innovative and provocative paper in this review eugene fama presents evidence which appears to be consistent with the joint hypothesis that the real rate of interest ignoring taxes is a constant and that the market for u s treasury bills is efficient in the sense of embodying rational expectations those findings are strikingly at variance with a long list of previous studies which seemed to support the view that the real rate of interest varies over time and can be related to economic variables such as real output monetary policy and so forth 2 the methodologies which lead to these contradictory conclusions are quite different previous studies had followed the lead of irving fisher by relating nominal interest rates to distributed lags on past rates of inflation 3 these distributed lags are generally interpreted as approximations to the market s expected rate of inflation and thus any remaining variation is attributed to variation in the real rate 4 fama s methodology on the other hand draws on the fact that the difference between the market interest rate and the subsequently observed rate of inflation the ex post real interest rate consists by definition of the ex ante real interest rate plus a pure forecasting error 5 the hypothesis of market efficiency implies that these forecasting errors must be serially random thus observing ex post real rates is equivalent to observing ex ante real rates with random measurement error these errors of course confound the problem of identifying variation in the ex ante real rate in this paper we will argue that the relative magnitude of these measurement errors is such that the tests carried out by fama were not powerful enough to reject the joint hypothesis that the ex ante real rate is a constant and expectations are rational more powerful tests which are presented in this paper using the same data do lead to rejection of that hypothesis of course rejection

formal and informal rural credit in four provinces of vietnam abstract this paper uses a survey of 932 rural households to uncover how the rural credit market operates in vietnam households obtain credit through formal and informal lenders formal loans are almost entirely for production and asset accumulation while informal loans are used for consumption smoothening the determinants of formal and informal credit demand are distinct while credit rationing depends on education and credit history in particular regional differences in the demand for credit are striking a one size fits all approach to credit policy in vietnam would be inappropriate