education poverty and terrorism is there a causal connection the paper investigates whether there is a connection between poverty or low education and terrorism we review evidence on hate crimes which are closely related to terrorism the occurrence of hate crimes is largely independent of economic conditions we analyze data on support for attacks against israeli targets from public opinion polls conducted in the west bank and gaza strip support for violent attacks does not decrease among those with higher education and higher living standards the core contribution of the paper is a statistical analysis of the determinants of participation in hezbollah militant activities having a living standard above the poverty line or a secondary or higher education is positively associated with participation in hezbollah we also find that israeli jewish settlers who attacked palestinians in the west bank in the early 1980s were overwhelmingly from high paying occupations although our results are tentative and exploratory they suggest that neither poverty nor education has a direct causal impact on terrorism

spurious volatility in historical unemployment data this paper shows that the stabilization of the unemployment rate between the pre 1930 and post 1948 eras is an artifact of improvements in data collection procedures prewar methods are used to construct postwar unemployment data that are consistent with the historical data the constructed postwar series is nearly as volatile as the pre 1930 unemployment data the constructed postwar data are systematically more volatile than the actual postwar data because the cyclical behavior of the labor force and productivity are misspecified in the construction procedures the relationship between the actual and constructed postwar unemployment series is used to construct new historical data

what explains wage gaps between farm and city exploring the todaro model with american evidence 1890 1941 nominal wage gaps between farm and city employment are one of the most pervasive aspects of modern economic growth so much so that they have become a key stylized fact of development economics indeed a good portion of the literature on the third world has focused on this problem at length both in terms of labor market behavior and in terms of policy formation in the face of factor market distortions yet wage gaps are not simply an institutional peculiarity of newly industrializing third world countries since they seem to have been even greater among nineteenthand twentieth century western nations while unskilled full time nominal city wages are about 41 higher than farm wages in the contemporary third world they were about 51 higher among late nineteenth century industrializers they were even higher in england in the 1830s about 73 2 furthermore the evidence suggests that these wage gaps vary substantially over time they rose from 29 to 41 in the american north between the antebellum and postbellum periods and were about 50 by the mid 1890s in the united states as a whole a figure that reached an all time u s high of about 65 by the late 1930s 3 there are three questions that these wage gaps raise not just one first would these nominal full time wage gaps disappear if they were properly measured proper measurement would include the fact that cities are more costly places to live that cities may have greater disamenities that farmers also make in kind payments to their workers and that farm laborers suffer seasonal underemployment elsewhere

distributional coalitions the industrial revolution and the origins of economic growth in britain from the late 1600s to the mid 1800s britain was able to transform from a divided kingdom with a fragmented often stagnant economy into a powerful and stable state that simultaneously saw an expansion in the power wealth and stability of the central government while encouraging an economic transformation that gradually allowed both industrial technology and liberal commerce to flourish and break out of its mercantilist straitjacket we explain how rent seeking elites who might normally have opposed such sweeping transformations promoted institutional changes that in the long run expanded the economy and encouraged innovation even at the expense of class interests in the short run this meant that rent seeking in the 18th century was not so much reduced as redirected from local monopolies to state authorities and parliament but in the longer run the process of professionalization made possible greater liberalism in general even at the expense of general rent seeking itself the position of parliament as a meta institution for reforming and weakening rent creating restrictions as needed was pivotal to this process ideological changes particularly the scottish enlighten ment transformed the terms of the debate but could only be operationalized once interests were aligned so that gainers from industrialization could compensate or overcome traditional interests

witchcraft weather and economic growth in renaissance europe between the thirteenth and nineteenth centuries as many as one million individuals in europe were executed for the crime of witchcraft the majority of the trials and executions took place during the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries during this period the speed and volume of executions were astonishing in one german town as many as 400 people were killed in a single day midelfort 1972 the trials were ubiquitous conducted by both ecclesiastical and secular courts by both catholics and protestants the victims were primarily women primarily poor and disproportionately widows the persecutions took place throughout europe starting and ending earlier in southwest europe than in the northern and eastern areas and spread even across the atlantic ocean to salem massachusetts although witchcraft trials in europe and america largely ended by the late eighteenth century witchcraft accusations and killings still take place in many countries today particularly in the developing world for example witchcraft is often blamed for aids deaths in sub saharan africa ashforth 2001 and miguel 2003 shows that negative economic shocks are associated with increases in witch killing in modern tanzania belief in the witch and fear of her is enduring while much work has been done on the motivations behind the european trials the large scale causes remain unknown the existing work has primarily been concerned with the factors that played into trials on a small scale why a certain individual was targeted or why a certain type of individual was targeted in a given area this work has indicated that there was a diverse set of issues that played into trials on an individual level more broadly however there are few causal explanations for why witchcraft trials happened at all and on such a large scale in so many

quality of service efficiency and scale in network industries an analysis of european electricity distribution quality of service qos is of major economic significance in natural monopoly infrastructure industries in this article we present an efficiency analysis of electricity distribution networks from seven european countries we apply the stochastic frontier analysis method to multi output translog input distance function models to estimate cost efficiency and scale economies we show that introducing the quality dimension into the analysis affects estimated efficiency significantly especially that smaller utilities efficiency seems to decrease our results emphasize that qos should be an integrated part of efficiency and economic analysis of regulated natural monopolies

taxes lawyers and the decline of witch trials in france abstracthow is rule of law established we address this question by exploring the effect of increases in fiscal capacity on the establishment of well enforced formal legal standards in a preindustrial economy between 1550 and 1700 there were over 2 000 witch trials in france prosecuting a witch required local judges to significantly deviate from formal rules of evidence hence we exploit the significant variation across time and space in witch trials and fiscal capacity across french regions between 1550 and 1700 to show that increases in fiscal capacity were associated with increased adherence to the formal rule of law as fiscal capacity increased local judges increasingly upheld de jure rules and the frequency of witch trials declined

optimum subsidies for education in two sector economies abstract this note presents a view on educational subsidies based on the recognition that educational cost is a kind of turnover cost from unskilled to skilled labor the level of optimum educational subsidies is given for three types of two sector economies a pure two sector economy economy of income sharings in the traditional sector economy with unemployment in the manufactural sector

performance indicators in higher education a survey of recent work this article surveys recent work on the construction of performance indicators in higher education focusing particular attention on degree results student wastage and research output performance indicators ought to provide measures of value added by the various institutions under review as such crude measures of output which fail to take account of input differences across institutions are inappropriate so it is necessary to investigate what factors underlie inter institution differences in measured output in order to correct for input variations in assessing overall performance the absence of market prices for teaching and research outputs severely hinders the construction of composite measures of the performance of higher education institutions since in their absence no objective weights can be assigned to the different roles of these institutions the resource implications of performance measurement exercises need to be clarified if rankings exercises are to have the desired incentive effects copyright 1992 by oxford university press

early starts reversals and catch up in the process of economic development early states like china and india have been experiencing more rapid economic growth in recent decades we show that more rapid growth by early starters has been the norm in economic history and that the reversal of fortune associated with the european overseas expansion was both exceptional and temporary not only was the post 1500 reversal in the process of being reversed after 1960 but also the advantage conferred by early development in the latter period was considerably greater than the growth rate disadvantage that it conferred during 1500 1960 implying a rapid undoing of the first reversal

changes in the cyclical sensitivity of wages in the united states 1891 1987 the conventional wisdom that nominal wages became less sensitive to the business cycle and more autocorrelated after world war ii is reexamined here by considering whether these properties are artifacts of the methods used to construct prewar wage series a replication based on these methods is more cyclically sensitive and exhibits less autocorrelation than the postwar data aggregation using variable instead of fixed employment weights also greatly exaggerates the cyclicality of prewar wages these biases imply that wages are just as sensitive to the cycle today as one hundred years ago perhaps even more so copyright 1992 by american economic association

bias and precision in the dea two stage method in data envelopment analysis dea the two stage method is a popular procedure for accounting for exogenous influences on efficiency with the conventional two stage method a dea is first conducted using only traditional endogenous inputs and outputs then the first stage dea scores are regressed on the environmental contextual exogenous inputs of interest the regression outcomes are used to identify exogenous inputs that influence the first stage dea scores to a statistically significant degree and to adjust dea scores to account for these influences herein it is demonstrated empirically that the conventional method exhibits substantial bias and low precision with the degree of bias and precision affected by input variance and correlation a reverse two stage procedure that yields estimates without the bias and precision problems that compromise the validity of the conventional method s estimates is suggested

on the aggregate welfare cost of great depression unemployment abstract the potential benefit of policies that eliminate a small likelihood of economic crises is calculated an economic crisis is defined as an increase in unemployment of the magnitude observed during the great depression for the u s the maximum likelihood estimate of entering a depression is found to be about once every 83 years the welfare gain from setting this small probability to zero can range between 1 and 7 of annual consumption in perpetuity for most estimates more than half of these large gains results from a reduction in individual consumption volatility

evaluating the productive performance of uk universities as cost constrained revenue maximizers an empirical analysis the study presents an empirical analysis of the relative revenue efficiency of uk universities in providing teaching and research with government policies pressurizing the largely public funded universities to secure efficiency in both input usage and output revenue university producers are modelled as cost constrained revenue maximizers taking explicit account of the quality of research output the methodology uses linear programming techniques to construct nonparametric cost indirect production frontiers and to compute revenue efficiency relative to these frontiers revenue efficiency is then decomposed into its output allocative and technical components further analysis investigates the sources of allocative and technical inefficiencies

the rise of europe atlantic trade institutional change and economic growth the rise of western europe after 1500 is due largely to growth in countries with access to the atlantic ocean and with substantial trade with the new world africa and asia via the atlantic this trade and the associatedcolonialism affected europe not only directly but also indirectly by inducing institutional change where initial political institutions those established before 1500 placed significant checks on the monarchy the growth of atlantic trade strengthened merchant groups by constraining the power of the monarchy and helped merchants obtain changes in institutions to protect property rights these changes were central to subsequent economic growth

politics and economics in weak and strong states abstract while much research in political economy points out the benefits of limited government political scientists have long emphasized the problems created in many less developed nations by weak states which lack the power to tax and regulate the economy and to withstand the political and social challenges from non state actors i construct a model in which the state apparatus is controlled by a self interested ruler who tries to divert resources for his own consumption but who can also invest in socially productive public goods both weak and strong states create distortions when the state is excessively strong the ruler imposes such high taxes that economic activity is stifled when the state is excessively weak the ruler anticipates that he will not be able to extract rents in the future and underinvests in public goods i show that the same conclusion applies in the analysis of both the economic power of the state i e its ability to raise taxes and its political power i e its ability to remain entrenched from the citizens i also discuss how under certain circumstances a different type of equilibrium which i refer to as consensually strong state equilibrium can emerge whereby the state is politically weak but is allowed to impose high taxes as long as a sufficient fraction of the proceeds are invested in public goods the consensually strong state might best correspond to the state in oecd countries where taxes are high despite significant control by the society over the government

the origins of state capacity property rights taxation and politics economists generally assume that the state has sufficient institutional capacity to support markets and levy taxes this paper develops a framework where policy choices in market regulation and taxation are constrained by past investments in legal and fiscal capacity it studies the economic and political determinants of such investments demonstrating that legal and fiscal capacity are typically complements the results show that among other things common interest public goods such as fighting external wars as well as political stability and inclusive political institutions are conducive to building state capacity some correlations in cross country data are consistent with the theory

some evidence on demand fluctuations and the increased stability of the post war american economy this paper investigates the implications of a sticky wage contracting model that can explain both the decline in wage and price flexibility and the increased stability of the post war american economy the reduction in the size of demand shocks in the post war period has increased agents incentives to write longer contracts though longer contracts have rendered real activity more responsive to demand shocks in the post war period the reduction in the size of these shocks has dominated the increase in the size of response to a particular shock overall real activity has become more stable in the post war period as predicted by theory

princes and merchants european city growth before the industrial revolution as measured by the pace of city growth in western europe from 1000 to 1800 absolutist monarchs stunted the growth of commerce and industry a region ruled by an absolutist prince saw its total urban population shrink by one hundred thousand people per century relative to a region without absolutist government this might be explained by higher rates of taxation under revenue maximizing absolutist governments than under nonabsolutist governments which care more about general economic prosperity and less about state revenue

inflation unemployment regimes and the instability of the phillips curve using the statistical technique of fuzzy clustering regimes of inflation and unemployment are explored for the united states the united kingdom and germany between 1871 and 2009 we identify for each country three distinct regimes in inflation unemployment space similarities exist across countries in both the regimes and the timings of the transitions between regimes however the typical rates of inflation and unemployment experienced in the regimes are substantially different further even within a given regime the results from the cluster analysis reveal persistent fluctuations in the degree of attachment to that regime of inflation unemployment observations over time the economic implications of this are that first the inflation unemployment relationship or phillips curve experiences from time to time major shifts second that it is also inherently unstable even in the short run it is likely that the factors which govern the inflation unemployment trade off are so multi dimensional that it i

efficiency effects of observed and unobserved heterogeneity evidence from norwegian electricity distribution networks abstract since the 1990s efficiency and benchmarking analysis has increasingly been used in network utilities research and regulation a recurrent concern is the effect of observable environmental factors that are beyond the influence of firms and unobserved factors that are not identifiable on measured cost and quality performance of firms this paper analyses the effect of observed geographic and weather factors and unobserved heterogeneity on a set of 128 norwegian electricity distribution utilities for the 2001 2004 period we utilise data on 78 geographic and weather variables to identify real economic inefficiency while controlling for observed and unobserved heterogeneity we use the factor analysis technique to reduce the number of environmental factors into few composite variables and to avoid the problem of multicollinearity in order to identify firm specific inefficiency we then estimate a pooled version of the established stochastic frontier model of aigner et al 1977 and the recent true random effects model of greene 2004 2005a b without and with environmental variables the results indicate that the observed environmental factors have a rather limited influence on the utilities average efficiency and the efficiency rankings moreover the difference between the average efficiency scores and the efficiency rankings among the pooled and the true random effects models imply that the type of sfa model used is highly influencing the efficiency estimates

heteroscedasticity or production risk a synthetic view two veins of literature namely production risk literature and stochastic frontier analysis are examined both fields are concerned of output variation the former due to exogenous shocks the latter due inefficiency by covering the literature from both the fields this review suggests that the concept of heteroscedasticity can be utilized to build a synthesis between these mainly separate branches of literature however the synthetic approach brings a challenge how to differentiate between different sources of output variation this challenge is identified as the main obstacle to meaningfully combine the two approaches

a measure of the u s output gap abstract an autoregressive distributed lag regression of the unemployment rate on output growth is structurally stable over the 1890 1986 period inverting this equation yields a measure of the output gap which is not subject to the spurious detrending problem

anticipated money unanticipated money and output 1873 1930 anticipated money unanticipated money and output 1873 1930 i introduction this paper examines the roles of anticipated and unanticipated money in the period between the civil war and the depression 1 such an examination is warranted for at least two reasons first estimation of the impact of anticipated and unanticipated money on output for historical periods can enhance our understanding of the responses of economic activity to these key variables 2 second recent work has shown that traditional historical estimates of output may be faulty see romer 1986a 1986b 1986c 1988 not only do most studies investigating the economic roles played by anticipated and unanticipated money concentrate on the post world war ii era those that discuss the period before world war ii such as rush 1985 1986 use traditional data indeed despite the interesting analyses by rush if the validity of the conventional data on output and unemployment for the era under consideration is rejected then virtually no results on the importance of monetary and real factors for economic activity are available for this important period thus further discussion of this topic is needed to answer two important questions what do the revised data show us about the historical economy do these revisions change the inferences drawn about monetary influences on economic activity the analysis presented here is comprehensive in that a wide range of output measures are employed both in terms of the types of output and in terms of the manner in which the output measures are constructed given this variety in the output measures consistent results on the effects of anticipated and unanticipated money across output measures indicate that conclusions drawn from the analysis are robust in particular the empirical results presented below support the following hypotheses i that anticipated m2 and monetary base growth have no effect on output regardless of the output measure used ii that unanticipated m2 and monetary base growth do effect output regardless of the output measure used and iii that changes in financial intermediation may be important for the evolution of output over time support for hypotheses i and ii is consistent with the monetary explanation of business cycles support for hypotheses iii may be consistent with real explanations of business cycles if exogenous shocks to the monetary production technology subsequently affect output 3 taken together the joint support for hypotheses i iii suggests that at a minimum neither the real nor the monetary explanations for historical u s business cycles can be discounted without additional work the remainder of the paper is organized as follows section ii presents a brief overview of the historical period under consideration along with a discussion of prior work on the effects of anticipated and unanticipated money on output determination during this time period section iii discusses the data and the methodology the empirical results are presented in section iv and the conclusions in section v ii overview the historical period the period under investigation 1873 1930 is one of substantial economic change banking panics the return to the gold standard the founding of the federal reserve system and world war i are some of the more important events occuring during this period we consider the role played by expected and unexpected money in output determination for several major subperiods while data availability largely determined the selection of these subperiods they generally correspond to major economic events despite the structural and institutional changes over the period we also examine the roles of anticipated and unticipated money growth in the determination of output over the entire time period to be valid tests of the impact of money growth on output require a reasonable degree of homogeneity in the economic environment

measuring teaching efficiency in higher education an application of data envelopment analysis to economics graduates from uk universities 1993 data envelopment analysis dea is applied to 2547 economics graduates from uk universities in 1993 in order to assess teaching efficiency following a methodology developed by education economics 10 2 2002 183 207 each individual s efficiency is decomposed into two components one attributable to the university at which the student studied and the other attributable to the student himself from the former component a measure of each institution s teaching efficiency is derived and compared to efficiency scores derived from a conventional dea applied using each economics department as a decision making unit dmu the results suggest that efficiencies derived from deas performed at an aggregate level include both institution and individual components and are therefore misleading thus the unit of analysis in a dea is highly important moreover an analysis at the individual level can give institutions insight into whether it is the students own efforts or the institution s efficiency which are a constraint on increased efficiency this has implications for the choice of strategy for improving efficiency

do mergers improve efficiency evidence from restructuring the us electric power sector abstract this paper analyses the performance impact of the merger wave which took place in the us electricity industry during the period 1994 2003 it does so by analyzing the impact on operating and total cost in electricity distribution while there are past studies of efficiency and productivity effects as well as of prices profits and other outcomes this study differs in several ways first the database consists of many merging and non merging firms rather than only a few on which to base inferences second all of these mergers arise in a single industry greatly facilitating controlled comparison third we have data on the several years of pre merger and post merger efficiency of the specific merging units unlike virtually all past studies finally we employ a powerful nonparametric technique data envelopment analysis to measure the efficiency of each operating unit the results indicate that electricity mergers are not consistent with improved cost performance

a theory of yardstick competition in the typical regulatory scheme a franchised monopoly has little incentive to reduce costs this article proposes a mechanism in which the price the regulatedfirm receives depends on the costs of identical firms in equilibrium each firm chooses a socially efficient level of cost reduction the mechanism generalizes to cover heterogeneous firms with observable differences medicare s prospective reimbursement of hospitals by using diagnostically related groups is a scheme very similar to the one outlined here

poverty and witch killing many observers have noted that poverty and violence go hand in hand there is a strong negative relationship between economic growth and crime across countries as well as across districts in india and a link between low income and the occurrence of civil war 1 yet existing studies are typically unable to resolve the key econometric identification issues of omitted variable bias and endogeneity to illustrate the unobserved quality of local government institutions may affect both income growth and crime rates and poverty could lead to violence if desperate people with nothing to lose commit more crimes but violence itself may in turn affect economic productivity this paper uses local rainfall variation to identify the impact of income shocks on murder in a rural tanzanian district 2 extreme rainfall resulting in drought or floods is exogenous and is associated with poor harvests and near famine conditions in the region and a large increase in the murder of witches there are twice as many witch murders in years of extreme rainfall as in other years the victims are nearly all elderly women typically killed by relatives these econometric results across 11 years in 67 villages provide novel evidence on the role of income shocks in causing violent crime and religious violence in particular and also provide insights into witchcraft an important social phenomenon in africa rarely studied by economists the view that economic conditions are a driving force behind witch murders is bolstered by the fact that most witch killing in tanzania takes place in poor rural areas largely dependent on rain fed agriculture and that most victims in our sample are from poor households however it is difficult to definitively disentangle this income shock theory from alternative socio cultural explanations the concentration of tanzanian witch murders in a region dominated by one particular ethnic group the sukuma and the especially high number of witch murders in villages where indigenous religious beliefs are strong both point to the important role of non economic factors economic theories and cultural theories are perhaps best viewed as complements the empirical findings demonstrate the power of economics to rationalize a phenomenon that has previously been understood almost solely through a socio cultural lens 3

benchmarking and incentive regulation of quality of service an application to the uk electricity distribution networks abstract quality of service has emerged as an important issue in post reform regulation of electricity distribution networks regulators have employed partial incentive schemes to promote cost saving investment efficiency and service quality this paper presents a quality incorporated benchmarking study of the electricity distribution utilities in the uk between 1991 92 and 1998 99 we calculate technical efficiency of the utilities using data envelopment analysis technique and productivity change over time using quality incorporated malmquist indices we find that cost efficient firms do not necessarily exhibit high service quality and that efficiency scores of cost only models do not show high correlation with those of quality based models the results also show that improvements in service quality have made a significant contribution to the sector s total productivity change in addition we show that integrating quality of service in regulatory benchmarking is preferable to cost only approaches

cost efficiency of electric grid utilities in china a comparison of estimates from sfa mle sfa bayes and stoned cnls with the purpose of estimating the range of cost efficiency levels of the power grid sector in china we assembled a data set including 23 provincial power grid companies spanning from 2005 to 2009 and conducted an empirical study based on the sfa mle sfa bayes and stoned cnls methodologies empirical results show that the average values of efficiency from different models vary from 0 85 to 0 92 depending especially on the assumptions underlying inefficiency content further results demonstrate that there is exogenous technical progress during the sample period and per capita gdp of the province is negatively related to the costs of the electric grid company located in the corresponding province we hope this empirical study will contribute to the debate on an efficiency based regulation scheme which was introduced to the chinese electric grid sector on a pilot base in 2014

electric power distribution economies of scale mergers and restructuring electricity distribution is generally viewed as a natural monopoly and therefore as having the least potential for the kinds of reforms that have swept the electric power sector in many countries mergers among distribution companies and efforts at retail competition have nonetheless altered the operation of the distribution stage this research into us electric utilities uses a much larger and less selective data base than previously available to examine the scale properties of distribution with respect to output distance and customer numbers and for different functions within distribution it finds significant economies at low output levels holding system size and customer density constant but the cost gradient is otherwise modest it also finds that geographic size and customer numbers are quite important and that economies are significantly stronger for the infrastructure or wires business than for the marketing function performed by distribution utilities these results lend credence to effort

keeping the keynesian faith this wide ranging discussion takes in the development of macroeconomics and the influence of ideas and events on that development the nature and causes of the great depression keynesianism lessons from the high inflation period of the 1970s the role of macroeconomic policy and the idea of the new economy

is deflation costly after all the perils of erroneous historical classifications i estimate average economic activity during periods of inflation and deflation while accounting for measurement errors in 19th century prices these measurement errors lead to underestimation overestimation of economic activity during periods of inflation deflation by exploiting multiple deflation indicators it is possible to recover the true relationship the shortfall of us industrial production growth during periods of deflation ranges from 4 5 pp to 7 6 pp instead of 2 pp i also find a negative relationship between deflation and real activity in the uk i then examine the cross country variation in the estimates for eleven countries the patterns are consistent with stronger biases for countries with more serious measurement errors in prices

what is the best practice for benchmark regulation of electricity distribution comparison of dea sfa and stoned methods electricity distribution is a natural local monopoly in many countries the regulators of this sector apply frontier methods such as data envelopment analysis dea or stochastic frontier analysis sfa to estimate the efficient cost of operation in finland a new stoned method was adopted in 2012 this paper compares dea sfa and stoned in the context of regulating electricity distribution using data from finland we compare the impacts of methodological choices on cost efficiency estimates and acceptable cost while the efficiency estimates are highly correlated the cost targets reveal major differences in addition we examine performance of the methods by monte carlo simulations we calibrate the data generation process dgp to closely match the empirical data and the model specification of the regulator we find that the stoned estimator yields a root mean squared error rmse of 4 with the sample size 100 precision improves as the sample size increases the dea estimator yields an rmse of approximately 10 but performance deteriorates as the sample size increases the sfa estimator has an rmse of 144 the poor performance of sfa is due to the wrong functional form and multicollinearity

price flexibility and aggregate stability new evidence and implications i introduction is increased price flexibility stabilizing the importance of this question can be easily established by observing the number of recently published papers in which this question or a slight modification of it has appeared in their titles 1 while most economists would answer this question affirmatively a strand of macroeconomic thought that questions the wisdom of too much price flexibility has recently regained some attention 2 in the most widely discussed of this recent literature delong and summers 1986b question the wisdom of too much price flexibility their work was motivated by some of the ideas expressed by keynes 1936 and formally articulated by james tobin 1975 low prices work to move the economy to full employment but falling prices to the extent that they lead to expectations of deflation raise the real interest rate through the mundell effect and move the economy away from full employment in a version of taylor s 1979 wage setting model delong and summers show that instability is likely to occur if expectations of inflation adjust rapidly to actual inflation and the real interest rate effect is large this view presents a direct challenge to mainstream keynesian models of business cycles 3 according to these models sluggish wages and prices are generally the culprits of unemployment and business fluctuations an exogenous institutional increase in the degree of price inflexibility increases the size of quantities adjustment in response to aggregate demand shocks in the current period and over time the assumption of exogeneity is consistent with the view that wage and price rigidity are the result of an institutional structure that is relatively unresponsive to changes in the underlying economic conditions in gray and kandil 1991 we find this view unappealing considering recent efforts to rationalize nominal rigidities as the outcome of explicit optimization exercises 4 it is for this reason that we examine the relationship between price flexibility and output variability in a framework in which both are endogenously determined in the model we develop price rigidity is attributed to the length of contractual wage agreements an increase in contract length will occur if the costs of negotiating contracts rise or the amount of uncertainty impinging on the economy declines in the first case declines in wage and price flexibility will be accompanied by decreased stability of output in the latter case the opposite will occur the reduction in the size of stochastic disturbances impinging on the economic system has a direct stabilizing impact on real output concurrently the reduction in the degree of uncertainty increases agents incentives to write longer contracts the increased rigidity is destabilizing this destabilizing impact is dominated however by the direct stabilizing impact the implications of the alternative views can be contrasted in many respects in kandil 1991b i test the relation between measures of wage and price flexibility and the size of macroeconomic fluctuations across a group of ten major industrial countries the analysis of this paper extends this research in several directions first the analysis provides a formal illustration of the channels through which price flexibility may differentiate the real effects of specific shocks underlying aggregate demand and in turn aggregate variability the framework approximates the key relationships for the theoretical debate under consideration these relationships are replicated empirically to establish the validity of the hypotheses that differentiate the alternative views second the analysis provides a more formal attempt towards quantifying the structural shocks underlying aggregate demand these shocks are the driving forces of economic instability and in turn they are crucial to the debate on the stabilizing effects of price flexibility

incentive regulation of electricity distribution networks lessons of experience from britain this paper reviews the recent experience of the uk electricity distribution sector under incentive regulation the uk has a significant and transparent history in implementing incentive regulation in the period since 1990 we demonstrate the successes of this period in reducing costs prices and energy losses while maintaining quality of service we also draw out the lessons for other countries in implementing distribution sector reform we conclude by discussing the place of incentive regulation of networks within the wider reform context the required legislative framework the need for appropriate unbundling the importance of quality of service incentives the regulatory information requirements and the role of sector rationalisation

subsidies for higher education who should pay the resource costs of higher education this paper investigates a simple model of the general equilibrium of the labor market with three skill levels those in the population with the lower level of intelligence and or sophistication can only become low skilled workers but the brighter segment of the population can become either high or medium skilled workers given the tax structure the welfare of each group is maximized by a unique subsidy rate on the cost of training high skilled workers under several circumstances the lower iq group wants a higher subsidy rate than will the group that benefits directly from the training

the demand for education under capital market imperfections this paper studies the theoretical implications of the demand for education assuming the same regime for financing consumption and the direct costs of education when the capital market is not perfect it is motivated by the policy concerns on the financing of post secondary education in case of an imperfect capital market the separation theorem see e g wallace and ihnen 1975 is not valid and the theoretical implications substantially deviate from their counterparts under a perfect capital market regime for example in a capital market with credit rationing the borrowing rate exerts a positive effect on the demand for education whereas this effect is negative in case of a perfect capital market the theoretical results are used to discuss the effects of government policy on the demand for post compulsory education

specification of merger gains in the norwegian electricity distribution industry electricity distribution often exhibits economies of scale in norway a number of smaller distribution system operators exist and thus there is potential to restructure the industry possibly through mergers however the revenue cap regulatory model in norway does not incentivize firms to merge as merging leads to a stricter revenue cap for the merged company thus the regulator compensates the firms in order to create such incentives the amount of compensation is based on the potential gains of the merger estimated using a data envelopment analysis dea based frontier approach introduced by bogetoft and wang journal of productivity analysis 23 145 171 2005 dea is however only one of many possible frontier estimators that can be used in estimation furthermore the returns to scale assumption the operating environment of firms and the presence of stochastic noise and outlier observations are all known to affect to the estimation of production technology in this paper we explore how varying assumption under two alternate frontier estimators shape the distribution of merger gains within the norwegian distribution industry our results reveal that the restructuring policies of the industry may be significantly altered depending how potential gains from the mergers are estimated

stochastic semi nonparametric frontier estimation of electricity distribution networks application of the stoned method in the finnish regulatory model abstract electricity distribution network is a prime example of a natural local monopoly in many countries electricity distribution is regulated by the government many regulators apply frontier estimation techniques such as data envelopment analysis dea or stochastic frontier analysis sfa as an integral part of their regulatory framework while more advanced methods that combine nonparametric frontier with stochastic error term are known in the literature in practice regulators continue to apply simplistic methods this paper reports the main results of the project commissioned by the finnish regulator for further development of the cost frontier estimation in their regulatory framework the key objectives of the project were to integrate a stochastic sfa style noise term to the nonparametric axiomatic dea style cost frontier and to take the heterogeneity of firms and their operating environments better into account to achieve these objectives a new method called stochastic nonparametric envelopment of data stoned was examined based on the insights and experiences gained in the empirical analysis using the real data of the regulated networks the finnish regulator adopted the stoned method in use from 2012 onwards

eco efficiency outcomes of mergers and acquisitions in the european electricity industry abstract the european electricity industry was recently liberalized in response there was a surge of mergers and acquisitions m as this study addresses the effects of m as on the eco efficiency of european electricity producers in 2005 2013 the environmental production technology comprises co2 emissions as an undesirable output i compute eco efficiency using data envelopment analysis dea and the malmquist luenberger productivity index which are both based on radial directional distance function i observe a decreasing trend in average eco efficiency which contradicts the previously documented moderate efficiency gains of liberalization the effects of m as are isolated using second step fractional regression the domestic horizontal m as which are systematically regulated by the european commission have no impact although one cross border horizontal deal has a same year effect of roughly 3 this effect becomes approximately 1 5 over a two year timespan vertical domestic m as have a short run negative impact of 3 6 that does not persist over time vertical international m as reduce the eco efficiency by 2 1 two years after their completion limited evidence suggests that the conglomerate deals are at least not harmful the policy implication is that the merger regulation should be based on dea eco efficiency measures regulators should devote more attention to cross border m as and particularly to vertical deals

state capacity and economic development causal mechanism or correlative filter abstract in this paper we explore why there are no examples of societies with low state capacity and high economic development we argue that such an outcome is unlikely because of the nature of investments in state capacity societies that become rich in the absence of a strong state invite predation by societies that develop such states thus societies invest in state capacity in part to plunder other societies wealth those investments are a form of rent seeking potentially preyed upon societies are forced to invest in state capacity in turn so as to deter potential attackers this entails that as soon as a rent seeker enters the game the likelihood of a low capacity high development society surviving falls this explains the historical lack of such societies we thus interpret state capacity not as a causal condition for widespread economic prosperity but a survivability condition for enjoying this prosperity

regional differences in electricity distribution costs and their consequences for yardstick regulation of access prices abstract in this paper we estimate an average cost function for a panel of 59 swiss local and regional electricity distribution utilities as a basis for yardstick regulation of the distribution network access prices shleifer 1985 proposed yardstick competition in terms of price to regulate local monopolies producing a homogeneous good the regulated price for the individual firms depends on the average costs of identical firms the yardstick competition concept can also be applied to firms that produce heterogeneous goods if these goods differ only in observable characteristics to correct the yardstick for heterogeneity the regulator can use a multivariate estimation of an average cost function in the case of electricity distribution the heterogeneity of output consists mainly of different characteristics of the distribution service areas in this paper we follow shleifer s suggestion to estimate a multivariate average cost function that can be employed by the regulatory commission to benchmark network access prices at the distribution level several exogenous variables measuring the heterogeneity of the service areas were included in the cost model specification we find that the regional differences of the service areas e g area shares of forests agricultural areas or unproductive land and population density significantly influence electricity distribution costs

capital bias in the nordic revenue cap regulation averch johnson critique revisited abstract nordic energy market reform and the regulation of local monopolies in electricity transmission and distribution sectors have served as role models for many other countries worldwide the first contribution of this paper is to clarify the conceptual distinction between the nordic revenue cap approach and the british revenue cap regulation our second contribution is to show that the nordic revenue cap is similar to the u s style rate of return regulation in that both are subject to capital bias known as the averch johnson effect the third contribution of this paper is to examine the magnitude of the capital bias and its welfare effects by means of numerical simulations we show that the nordic revenue cap generally decreases the monopoly profit increases the output decreases the price and hence increases consumer surplus compared to the unregulated monopoly the simulation results prove robust to changes in the parameter values and the functional form of the production function our numerical simulations reveal that relatively light handed regulation suffices to yield the main benefits

the phillips curve the persistence of inflation and the lucas critique evidence from exchange rate regimes comment we present evidence from the united states and the united kingdom that the persistence of price inflation is significantly higher under managed exchange rate regimes than under gold based fixed exchange rate regimes these differences are also reflected in expectations augmented phillips curves we use a two country macro model with forward looking price setters to demonstrate that higher monetary accommodation of inflation and exchange rate accommodation of inflation differentials increase inflation persistence the evidence does not contradict this hypothesis it supports the hypothesis of forward looking price setters and highlights the empirical significance of the lucas critique jel e31 e42 f33

industry structural inefficiency and potential gains from mergers and break ups a comprehensive approach an efficiency indicator of industry configuration allowing for entry exit of firms is presented which accounts for four sources components 1 size inefficiencies arising from firms which can be conveniently split into smaller units 2 efficiency gains realized through merger of firms 3 re allocation of inputs and outputs among firms 4 technical inefficiencies the indicator and its components are computed using linear and mixed integer programming data envelopment analysis models a method to monitor the evolution of these components in time is introduced data on hospitals in australia show that technical inefficiency of hospitals accounts for less than 15 of total industry inefficiency with 40 attributable to size inefficiencies and the rest to potential mergers and re allocation effects

effect of the number of banking relationships on credit availability evidence from panel data of spanish small firms this paper investigates how the choice between single or multiple banking relationships affects credit availability for a complete panel of small and medium sized spanish firms the results seem to indicate the existence of rationing since a substitution relation has been found between trade and bank credit we also analyse the relationship between the level of indebtedness and the interest rate for each group of firms the results show that those smes that work with fewer financial intermediaries obtain fewer funds for the same increase in the interest rate which indicates that these companies have more financial restraints