optimal diversity of renewable energy alternatives under multiple criteria an application to the uk we propose a multi criteria analysis of alternative combinations of renewable energy technologies to meet a sustainable energy supply it takes into account a range of criteria to reflect relevant environmental social and economic considerations capture the value of diversity and reflect innovative potential and learning capacity the combination of these factors allows for solutions in which there is more balance between economic environmental and social dimensions unlike in previous studies scenarios that might have been preferred on the basis of for example minimal costs or low co2 emissions will have to be reconsidered because of negative effects in terms of land use or unemployment the decision making philosophy in this case changes from that of optimization to multi criteria satisficing this article argues for consideration of the following dimensions of the energy system costs emissions water use land use and employment consideration of such dimensions will shift energy system into the direction of overall sustainability while making it more resilient in the long term the approach is applied to the case of the united kingdom by making use of a markal model complementing its goal of cost minimization with additional social and environmental criteria this gives rise to a number of suggestions for uk energy mix and policy

a theory of voting equilibria a voting equilibrium arises when the voters in an electorate acting in accordance with both their preferences for the candidates and their perceptions of the relative chances of various pairs of candidates being in contention for victory generate an election result that justifies their perceptions voting equilibria always exist and the set of equilibria can vary substantially with the choice of voting system we compare equilibria under the plurality rule approval voting and the borda system we consider a candidate positioning game and find that the plurality rule imposes little restriction on the position of the winning candidate in three candidate races while approval voting leads to a winner positioned at the median of the voter distribution we contrast campaign activities intended to influence voter preferences with activities meant to influence only perceptions of candidate viability

ideological segregation online and offline we use individual and aggregate data to ask how the internet is changing the ideological segregation of the american electorate focusing on online news consumption offline news consumption and face to face social interactions we define ideological segregation in each domain using standard indices from the literature on racial segregation we find that ideological segregation of online news consumption is low in absolute terms higher than the segregation of most offline news consumption and significan tly lower than the segregation of face to face interactions with neighbors co workers or family members we find no evidence that the internet is becoming more segregated over time

electoral business cycles in oecd countries studies of oecd countries have generally failed to detect real economic expansions in the pre election period casting doubt on the existence of opportunistic political business cycles we develop a theory that predicts a substantial portion of the economy experiences a real decline in the pre election period specifically the political uncertainty created by elections induces private actors to postpone investments with high costs of reversal the resulting declines referred to as reverse electoral business cycles are larger the more competitive the electoral race and the greater the polarization between major parties we test these predictions using quarterly data on private fixed investment in ten oecd countries between 1975 and 2006 the results suggest that reverse electoral business cycles exist and as expected depend on electoral competitiveness and partisan polarization moreover simply by removing private fixed investment from gross domestic product gdp we uncover robust evidence of opportunistic cycles

exploring the role of households hurdle rates and demand elasticities in meeting danish energy savings target abstract the eu s energy efficiency directive eed sets a binding target for energy savings in eu member states the eed further requires member states to perform ex ante evaluations of energy efficiency policies implemented to achieve these savings however ex ante evaluation of energy efficiency policies is difficult as it requires detailed modelling of end users investment and energy demand behaviour this paper details the danish interact modelling approach for ex ante evaluation of energy efficiency policies directed at residential heating interact integrates the energy system model times dk into a computable general equilibrium framework the paper explores the potential for meeting denmark s eed target through a policy induced increase in households investments in energy efficiency retrofits the paper considers the effect of energy efficiency policies on households investment behaviour by applying different levels of hurdle rates on households investments in energy efficiency retrofits the paper shows that reducing the hurdle rate from 25 to 4 could meet more than a third of danish energy saving requirements for the period 2021 2030 this result includes a direct rebound effect of 31 finally the paper demonstrates that reducing the hurdle below 10 has a substantial negative impact on households disposable income making such policy less viable from a policy perspective

elections with limited information a fulfilled expectations model using contemporaneous poll and endorsement data as information sources a one dimensional model of two candidate elections under asymmetric information is theoretically developed and experimentally tested candidates do not know voter utility functions and most voters are uninformed about candidate policy positions a fulfilled expectations equilibrium is defined using poll and endorsement data as information sources it is proved that with any positive fraction of informed voters any equilibrium extracts all available information all participants voters and candidates alike act as if they were fully informed for fixed candidate strategies a dynamic is given for convergence to voter equilibrium and this process is shown to imply a bandwagon effect

a survey of jel codes what do they mean and are they used consistently the use and prevalence of jel code categorization is wide in the field of economics but what do jel code classifications actually tell us and are they used with consistency by academics in the field utilizing a data set of articles published in the american economic review from 1990 to 2008 we investigate whether there is heterogeneity in jel codes assignments between authors and editors we find that there is a secondary goal of this paper is to survey overall thematic trends in jel code usage over the past four and a half decades one result is that jel category m business economics in particular appears to be thematically and spatially distinct from much of the rest of the published literature in the top general interest journals in the field

the cost of uncertainty about the timing of social security reform abstract we develop a model to study optimal decision making in the face of uncertainty about the timing and structure of a future event the model is used to study optimal decision making and welfare when individuals face uncertainty about when and how social security will be reformed for young individuals with many years to optimally hedge the risks that they face the welfare cost of uncertainty about the timing and structure of reform is just a few basis points of total lifetime consumption in contrast the cost of reform uncertainty can be greater than 1 of total lifetime consumption for individuals close to retirement even if they have saved optimally up to that point finally the cost is significantly higher still for those who do not save optimally to hedge these risks

economic policy uncertainty and unemployment in the united states a nonlinear approach we model us post wwii monthly data with a smooth transition var model and study the effects of an unanticipated increase in economic policy uncertainty on unemployment in recessions and expansions we find the response of unemployment to be statistically and economically larger in recessions a state contingent forecast error variance decomposition analysis confirms that the contribution of epu shocks to the volatility of unemployment at business cycle frequencies is markedly larger in recessions

negative voters electoral competition with loss aversion this paper studies how voter loss aversion affects electoral competition in a downsian setting assuming that the voters reference point is the status quo we show that loss aversion has a number of effects first for some values of the status quo there is policy rigidity both parties choose platforms equal to the status quo regardless of other parameters second there is a moderation effect when there is policy rigidity the equilibrium policy outcome is closer to the moderate voters ideal point than in the absence of loss aversion in a dynamic extension of the model we consider how parties strategically manipulate the status quo to their advantage and we find that this increases policy rigidity finally we show that with loss aversion incumbents adjust less than challengers to changes in voter preferences the underlying force is that the status quo works to the advantage of the incumbent this prediction of asymmetric adjustment is new and we test it using elections to us state legislatures the results are as predicted incumbent parties respond less to shocks in the preferences of the median voter

tax uncertainty and business activity abstract we investigate the extent to which uncertainties about tax policies affect business activities we develop a statewide tax uncertainty measure tu measure and show that it captures state corporate tax uncertainty by comparing adjacent counties across state borders we show that increasing tax uncertainty by one standard deviation a 30 increase in the tu measure leads to a 0 17 point per year decrease in the growth rate of establishments over two years the result holds after conducting a variety of robustness checks and is not likely to be driven by general state policy uncertainties

pathways to a low carbon economy for the uk with the macro econometric e3mg model this paper examines different carbon pathways for achieving deep co2 reduction targets for the uk using a macro econometric hybrid model e3mg which stands for energy economy environment model at the global level the e3mg with the uk as one of its regions combines a top down approach for modeling the global economy and for estimating the aggregate and disaggregate energy demand and a bottom up approach energy technology submodel etm for simulating the power sector which then provides feedback to the energy demand equations and the whole economy the etm submodel uses a probabilistic approach and historical data for estimating the penetration levels of the different technologies considering their economic technical and environmental characteristics three pathway scenarios cfh clc and cam simulate the co2 reduction by 40 60 and 80 by 2050 compared to 1990 levels respectively and are compared with a reference scenario ref with no reduction target the targets are modeled as the uk contribution to an international mitigation effort such as achieving the g8 reduction targets which is a more realistic political framework for the uk to move towards deep reductions rather than moving alone this paper aims to provide modeling evidence that deep reduction targets can be met through different carbon pathways while also assessing the macroeconomic effects of the pathways on gdp and investment

do voters affect or elect policies evidence from the u s house there are two fundamentally different views of the role of elections in policy formation in one view voters can affect candidates policy choices competition for votes induces politicians to move toward the center in this view elections have the effect of bringing about some degree of policy compromise in the alternative view voters merely elect policies politicians cannot make credible promises to moderate their policies and elections are merely a means to decide which one of two opposing policy views will be implemented we assess which of these contrasting perspectives is more empirically relevant for the u s house focusing on elections decided by a narrow margin allows us to generate quasi experimental estimates of the impact of a randomized change in electoral strength on subsequent representatives roll call voting records we find that voters merely elect policies the degree of electoral strength has no effect on a legislator s voting behavior for example a large exogenous increase in electoral strength for the democratic party in a district does not result in shifting both parties nominees to the left politicians inability to credibly commit to a compromise appears to dominate any competition induced convergence in policy

fluctuations in uncertainty this review article tries to answer four questions i what are the stylized facts about uncertainty over time ii why does uncertainty vary iii do fluctuations in uncertainty matter and iv did higher uncertainty worsen the great recession of 2007 2009 on the first question both macro and micro uncertainty appears to rise sharply in recessions on the second question the types of exogenous shocks like wars financial panics and oil price jumps that cause recessions appear to directly increase uncertainty and uncertainty also appears to endogenously rise further during recessions on the third question the evidence suggests uncertainty is damaging for short run investment and hiring but there is some evidence it may stimulate longer run innovation finally in terms of the great recession the large jump in uncertainty in 2008 potentially accounted for about one third of the drop in gdp

centripetal and centrifugal incentives in electoral systems this paper investigates how electoral laws affect the position taking incentives of parties and candidates it seeks to extend the finding presented in the classical median voter theorem to a wide class of electoral systems or to show the limits of such extension the factors examined are the district magnitude the electoral formula the number of votes each voter is allowed to cast whether voters can cumulate their votes and whether voters can partially abstain i suggest a crude division of electoral systems into those producing predominantly centripetal incentives and those producing predominantly centrifugal incentives among the factors found to produce centripetal incentives at least in noncumulative systems are the following increases in the number of votes per voter outlawry of partial abstention and decreases in the district magnitude in systems allowing the cumulation of votes matters are a bit different

why has us policy uncertainty risen since 1960 we consider two classes of explanations for the rise in policy related economic uncertainty in the united states since 1960 the first stresses growth in government spending taxes and regulation a second stresses increased political polarization and its implications for the policymaking process and policy choices

rational voting and candidate entry under plurality rule we analyze a formal model of electoral competition under plurality rule that is characterized by two novel features first rather than assuming a fixed field of candidates we allow candidates to make decisions regarding entry as well as location second voters in our model are strategically rational that is they maximize utility over expected policy outcomes rather than simply voting for the ideologically closest candidate given these assumptions all equilibria in this model are such that the set of entrants locates at the median voter s ideal point this result stands in sharp contrast to earlier models of multicandidate competition in which entry is not allowed and voters vote sincerely

cost of ad hoc nuclear policy uncertainties in the evolution of the swiss electricity system abstract about one third of the swiss nuclear capacity is due to be retired in the next ten years creating a short term supply gap in addition the swiss federal council has decided to phase out nuclear power over the longer term by not replacing existing nuclear power plants after retirement we have analysed possible electricity supply options for responding to these two developments under different conditions using the swiss times electricity sector model a least cost optimization framework short term demand can be cost effectively met with new investment in gas fired generation capacity however meeting the government s co 2 emission and renewable electricity targets requires an accelerated investment in renewable generation and or increased reliance on imported electricity in the medium and longer term nuclear represents the most cost effective option the alternatives to nuclear lead to increased dependence on imported natural gas seasonal renewables and imported electricity all non nuclear supply options increase the cost of electricity supply by between 50 and 150 and create a range of tradeoffs between supply security and climate change mitigation goal however it is expected that an accelerated uptake of end use efficiency measures and demand side management would reduce future electricity demand thus reducing the need for some expensive supply options

intermediate steps towards the 2000 w society in switzerland an energy economic scenario analysis abstract in the future sustainable development under the umbrella of the 2000 w society could be of major interest could the target of the 2000 w society i e a primary energy per capita pec consumption of 2000 w be realized until 2050 various combinations of pec and co2 targets are tested and the additional costs to be paid by the society are estimated the assessment is carried out with the swiss markal model a bottom up energy system model projecting future technology investments for switzerland the analysis reveals that the 2000 w society should be seen as a long term goal for all contemplated scenarios a pec consumption of 3500 w per capita w cap is feasible in the year 2050 however strong pec consumption targets can reduce co2 emissions to an equivalent of 5 per decade at maximum for stronger co2 emission reduction goals corresponding targets must be formulated explicitly at an oil price of 75 us 2000 bbl in 2050 the additional cumulative discounted costs to reach a 10 co2 reduction per decade combined with a 3500 w per capita target amount to about 40 billion us 2000 on the contrary to reach pure co2 reduction targets is drastically cheaper challenging the vision of the 2000 w society