design and analysis of simulated consumer choice or allocation experiments an approach based on aggregate data the authors integrate concepts in conjoint analysis and discrete choice theory in econometrics to develop a new approach to the design and analysis of controlled consumer choice or resource allocat

a model of liquidity hoarding and term premia in inter bank markets financial crises are associated with reduced volumes and extreme levels of rates for term inter bank loans reflected in one month and three month libor we explain such stress by modeling leveraged banks precautionary demand for liquidity asset shocks impair a bank s ability to roll over debt because of agency problems associated with high leverage in turn banks hoard liquidity and decrease term lending as their rollover risk increases over the term of the loan high levels of short term leverage and illiquidity of assets lead to low volumes and high rates for term borrowing in extremis inter bank markets can completely freeze

employment discrimination an empirical test of forward versus reverse regression using data on faculty salaries at a large university we follow a methodology suggested by goldberger to conduct an empirical test of the conway roberts proposition that reverse and not forward regression is the proper way to detect salary discrimination we obtained 11 different estimates of the amount of salary discrimination not only are these estimates statistically inconsistent but they are also at variance with the estimate derived from the composite reverse regression therefore we conclude that in light of the econometric modeling used reverse regression does not yield an unbiased estimate of salary discrimination

network models and financial stability abstract systemic risk is a key concern for central banks charged with safeguarding overall financial stability in this paper we investigate how systemic risk is affected by the structure of the financial system we construct banking systems that are composed of a number of banks that are connected by interbank linkages we then vary the key parameters that define the structure of the financial system including its level of capitalisation the degree to which banks are connected the size of interbank exposures and the degree of concentration of the system and analyse the influence of these parameters on the likelihood of knock on defaults first we find that the better capitalised banks are the more resilient is the banking system against contagious defaults and this effect is non linear second the effect of the degree of connectivity is non monotonic i e initially a small increase in connectivity increases the contagion effect but after a certain threshold value connectivity improves the ability of a banking system to absorb shocks third the size of interbank liabilities tends to increase the risk of knock on default even if banks hold capital against such exposures fourth more concentrated banking systems are shown to be prone to larger systemic risk all else equal in an extension to the main analysis we study how liquidity effects interact with banking structure to produce a greater chance of systemic breakdown we finally consider how the risk of contagion might depend on the degree of asymmetry tiering inherent in the structure of the banking system a number of our results have important implications for public policy which this paper also draws out

resolving differences in willingness to pay and willingness to accept reply gwendolyn c morrison 1997 raises a logical point regarding our experimental test of the divergence between willingness to pay wtp and willingness to accept wta measures of economic value shogren et al 1994 she argues that our design does not provide a true test of the existence of a fundamental endowment effect since we did not control for the potential of a pivoting indifference map daniel kahneman et al 1990 she concludes that even though our ev idence shows that the mean wtp and wta bids for market goods with close substitutes e g candy bars and coffee mugs converge after market experience the endowment effect might still be alive and well albeit at statisti cally insignificant levels

conformity and the demand for environmental goods the existing literature on eco labeling and green consumerism has been framed within a classical market context where price and quality are the drivers of consumer choice however it seems possible that consumers are also concerned about the choices made by other consumers in fact it is unclear that people s consumption decisions are made independently of social context for instance under the desire to conform to certain social norms or in the presence of status concerns some individuals may be willing to pay a higher price premium for green products the more widespread green consumerism is in society we test this hypothesis using a choice experiment where the respondents were asked to choose among coffee products varying with respect to their share of ecological beans share of fair trade beans and price three treatments were used differing only in the information given about the choices made by other consumers we find different responses to the treatments across individuals and we can only confirm our hypothesis of conformity for women although men appear to have stronger preferences for ecological coffee than women have

risk aversion and willingness to pay for energy efficient systems in rental apartments abstract this paper uses a random utility model to estimate consumers valuation of energy efficient insulation and ventilation systems in rental apartments given consumers limited experience in residential buildings and the perceived uncertainty about their comfort benefits and resulting energy savings these relatively new technologies might be undervalued by risk averse consumers using the concept of certainty equivalence this paper proposes a model to assess the consumers risk aversion for adopting energy efficient systems these systems are treated as risky assets while conventional commodities are assumed to be risk free the curvature of the utility function is interpreted as a measure of aversion to perceived risks as opposed to explicit risks measured by observed variances the proposed formulation is applicable in stated preference data with qualitative variables the model is applied to data from a choice experiment conducted among 264 apartment tenants in switzerland the estimated curvatures reject the risk neutrality hypothesis the range of the estimated risk premiums suggests that risk considerations remain a central issue in dealing with energy efficiency in residential buildings the analysis also indicates that assuming same risk attitudes toward new and conventional systems could bias the estimates of the willingness to pay especially when the system is comprised of several components

sulfur dioxide control by electric utilities what are the gains from trade title iv of the 1990 clean air act amendments caaa established a market for transferable sulfur dioxide so2 emission allowances among electric utilities this market offers firms facing high marginal abatement costs the opportunity to purchase the right to emit so2 from firms with lower costs and this is expected to yield cost savings compared to a command and control approach to environmental regulation this paper uses econometrically estimated marginal abatement cost functions for power plants affected by title iv of the caaa to evaluate the performance of the so2 allowance market specifically we investigate whether the much heralded fall in the cost of abating so2 compared to original estimates can be attributed to allowance trading we demonstrate that for plants that use low sulfur coal to reduce so2 emissions technical change and the fall in prices of low sulfur coal have lowered marginal abatement cost curves by over 50 percent since 1985 the flexibility to take advantage of these chan

willingness to pay for voluntary climate action and its determinants field experimental evidence the determinants of individual voluntary climate action vca in combating climate change and its potential scale are frequently debated in public but largely underresearched we provide estimates of the willingness to individually reduce eu greenhouse gas emissions by one ton using the european union emissions trading scheme estimates are derived from an online field experiment with a large highly heterogenous and internet representative sample of voting aged germans jointly estimating willingness to pay wtp non indifference to vca and prior knowledge we uncover important determinants of preferences for vca such as education the information structure among the population and exogenous environmental conditions

estimating willingness to pay for a cycling event using a willingness to travel approach abstract this study examines the monetary value of nonmarket benefits to participants of an active sport tourism event such as happiness and pride from participating in an event willingness to travel wtt greater distances for future events is assessed and converted into willingness to pay wtp estimates using travel costs using survey data from the 2014 and 2015 blood sweat gears bike ride the intended visitation models show that changes in travel cost have a significant negative effect wtp to revisit the event was between 41 and 57 the likelihood of return visit decreases as travel costs increase indicating that wtp estimates are internally valid wtp estimates stemming from two years of data collection are stable suggesting that they are also temporally reliable this study demonstrated the feasibility of using stated preference wtt questions to assign a monetary value to nonmarket benefits of active sport tourists

consumer valuation of health attributes for soy based food a choice modeling approach abstract given that soy foods possess health promoting attributes that offer the promise of reducing heart related chronic diseases this article employs choice experiments to estimate marginal willingness to pay wtp for soy attributes including taste contents of soy protein and health claim random parameter logit rpl models were estimated in consideration of potential heterogeneity across individuals in their preferences for soy food standard deviation parameters in the rpl models are highly significant indicating that individuals have widely varying preferences for soy based food products results suggest that while taste is the dominating attribute that drives consumers wtp for soy food products consumers do respond to the information provided in the health claim yet consumers do not seem to be recognizing soy protein as the link to health benefits of soy foods

are those paid more really more productive the case of experience this study uses computerized personnel microdata on the white male managerial and professional employees at a major u s corporation to address the following question can the additional earnings which are associated with more labor market experience at a point in time really be explained by higher productivity at the same point in time our answer to this question based on both cross sectional and longitudinal information is that performance plays a substantially smaller role in explaining cross sectional experience earnings differentials and earnings growth than is claimed by those who have adopted the human capital explanation of the experience earnings profile this response depends critically on our assumption that the performance ratings which supervisors give to their white male managerial and professional subordinates adequately reflect the subordinates relative productivity in the year of assessment we present a great deal of evidence which strongly supports this assumption

macroeconomics after the crisis time to deal with the pretense of knowledge syndrome the recent financial crisis has damaged the reputation of macroeconomics largely for its inability to predict the impending financial and economic crisis to be honest this inability to predict does not concern me much it is almost tautological that severe crises are essentially unpredictable for otherwise they would not cause such a high degree of distress what does concern me about my discipline is that its current core by which i mainly mean the so called dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach has become so mesmerized with its own internal logic that it has begun to confuse the precision it has achieved about its own world with the precision that it has about the real one this is dangerous for both methodological and policy reasons to be fair to our field an enormous amount of work at the intersection of macroeconomics and corporate finance has been chasing many of the issues that played a central role during the current crisis including liquidity evaporation collateral shortages bubbles crises panics fire sales risk shifting contagion and the like however much of this literature belongs to the periphery of macroeconomics rather than to its core i will discuss the distinction between the core and the periphery of macroeconomics as well as the futile nature of the integrationist movement that is the process of gradually bringing the insights of the periphery into the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium structure i argue that the complexity of macroeconomic interactions limits the knowledge we can ever attain and that we need to place this fact at the center of our analysis we should consider what this complexity does to the actions and reactions of the economic agent and seek analytical tools and macroeconomic policies that are robust to the enormous uncertainty to which we are confined

inferred and stated attribute non attendance in food choice experiments we review the current literature on attribute non attendance in stated choice and use data from beef and chicken choice experiments using both inference and the respondents own statements inference is based on panel data analysis by mixed logit models of choice with both discrete and continuous mixtures of coefficients and is conditional on the observed pattern of choice information from respondent statements on non attendance is directly embedded in the specification of the indirect utility function results show no clear winner between the inferential approaches but the inference based on constrained latent class panel models better matches the observed data

the interbank market after august 2007 what has changed and why after the onset of the financial crisis spreads between interbank interest rates on unsecured and secured deposits for the major world currencies became exceptionally large and volatile first we find that the phenomenon was mainly driven by aggregate rather than bank specific factors notably risk aversion and accounting practices by contrast funding liquidity capital shortage and central bank interventions were not important determinants second prior to august 2007 the spread was broadly insensitive to key borrower characteristics whereas afterward it became somewhat more reactive to measures of creditworthiness third conditions for big borrowers became relatively more favorable during the crisis suggesting that moral hazard risks related to the too big to fail argument have increased these results are discussed in the light of theories on the interbank market during a crisis

who participates in household scanning panels we compare two widely used household scanning panels maintained by the nielsen company and information resources inc to a random sample of the u s population results indicate that the demographic characteristics of the random sample more closely match the census bureau data than the household scanning panels we also show that after controlling for demographic differences participants in the household scanning panels are slightly more price sensitive than participants in the random sample the two household scanning panels yield similar results in relation to one another which suggests that the household scanning panels may suffer from sample selection and participation biases

consumers willingness to pay for the color of salmon a choice experiment with real economic incentives in most retail markets sellers post the price and consumers choose which products to buy we designed an experimental market with posted prices to investigate consumers willingness to pay for the color of salmon salmon fillets varying in color and price were displayed in twenty choice scenarios in each scenario the participants chose which of two salmon fillets they wanted to buy to induce real economic incentives each participant drew one binding scenario the participants then had to buy the salmon fillet they had chosen in their binding scenario the choice data were analyzed with a mixed logit model

incorporating discontinuous preferences into the analysis of discrete choice experiments data from a discrete choice experiment on improvements of rural landscape attributes are used to investigate the implications of discontinuous preferences on willingness to pay estimates using a multinomial error component logit model we explore differences in scale and unexplained variance between respondents with discontinuous and continuous preferences and condition taste intensities on whether or not each attribute was considered by the respondent during the evaluation of alternatives results suggest that significant improvements in model performance can be achieved when discontinuous preferences are accommodated in the econometric specification and that the magnitude and robustness of the willingness to pay estimates are sensitive to discontinuous preferences

are choice experiments incentive compatible a test with quality differentiated beef steaks this study compares hypothetical and nonhypothetical responses to choice experiment questions we test for hypothetical bias in a choice experiment involving beef ribeye steaks with differing quality attributes in general hypothetical responses predicted higher probabilities of purchasing beef steaks than nonhypothetical responses thus hypothetical choices overestimate total willingness to pay for beef steaks however marginal willingness to pay for a change in steak quality is in general not statistically different across hypothetical and actual payment settings

experts and activists how information affects the demand for food irradiation abstract the public must decide between assertions made about food safety through irradiation by advocacy groups and by scientific experts herein we discuss the policy implications of experimental results that show how favorable and unfavorable information on food irradiation to reduce risks affects willingness to pay to control the food borne pathogen trichinella in irradiated pork the surprising result is that when we presented both positive and negative information simultaneously the negative information clearly dominated this was true even though the source of the negative information was identified as being a consumer advocacy group and the information itself was written in a manner that was non scientific

the interbank network across the global financial crisis evidence from italy abstract this study examines the effects of the global financial crisis gfc on interbank market connectivity using network analysis more specifically using data on italian banks bilateral interbank positions between 1998 and 2013 we analyze the impact of the following events on each bank s network centrality the liquidity crisis in august 2007 the collapse of lehman brothers in september 2008 eurosystem s long term refinancing operations ltros between 2009 and 2012 the sovereign debt crisis in july 2011 and the announcement of outright monetary transactions omt in 2012 the results show that the 2007 liquidity crisis and especially the collapse of lehman brothers are associated with a marked reduction of the relative interconnectedness of the italian banking sector i e a shift in the distribution of banks centrality to the left away from the most connected bank in the following years the system progressively recovered its initial patterns of integration among banks which coincided with the main eurosystem s monetary policy interventions however the average outcome conceals different results across banks depending on their characteristics and initial positions within the system

climate policy in hard times are the pessimists right conventional wisdom holds that the state of the economy has a strong impact on citizens appetite for environmental policies including climate policy assuming median voter preferences prevail periods of economic prosperity are likely to be conducive and economic downturns are likely to be detrimental to ambitious climate policy using original surveys in the united states and germany we engage in a critical re assessment of this claim the results show that for the most part individuals perceptions of their own economic situations have no significant effect on their policy support negative perceptions of the national economic outlook reduce support for climate policy in the us but not in germany however the magnitude of this national economy effect in the us is small on the other hand individuals climate risk perceptions consistently have a statistically significant and large effect across various model specifications and interestingly this pattern holds for the us whose government is among the less ambitious in global climate policy as well as germany which is among the frontrunners our study indicates that the state of the economy may not trump climate risk considerations as conventional wisdom claims

an empirical study of the mexican banking system s network and its implications for systemic risk abstract with the aim to measure and monitor systemic risk we present some topological metrics for the interbank exposures and the payments system networks the evolution of such networks is analyzed we draw important conclusions from the systemic risk s perspective and propose a measure of interconnectedness additionally we suggest non topological measures to describe individual behavior of banks in both networks the main findings of this paper are the structures of the payments and exposures networks are different in terms of connectivity the topology of the exposures network changed after the collapse of lehman brothers whereas the structure of the payments network does not the proposed measure of interconnectedness can be used to determine the importance of a bank in terms of connectivity finally we found that interconnectedness of a bank is not necessarily related with its assets size but it is linked to the contagion it might cause

demand effects in stated preference surveys abstract we argue that demand effects in stated preference studies are understudied by demand effects we mean anything in the survey that unintentionally influences respondents beliefs about appropriate behavior which in turn might affect their responses in the survey we implement two methods for measuring and implicitly reducing the influence of demand effects the first approach random selection of good to be valued does not have any effect on respondent behavior the second approach a demand script and a control question with feedback has a sizable and statistically significant effect on respondent behavior in particular estimated marginal willingness to pay for improvements in water quality are substantially around 50 percent lower than a control treatment we attribute this decrease to a reduced demand effect our results suggest that stated preference methods tend to lead to biased willingness to pay estimates due to demand effects but that the bias can be reduced using simple measures

validity of discrete choice experiments evidence for health risk reduction there is growing interest in discrete choice experiment dce as a method to elicit consumers preferences in the health care sector increasingly this method is used to determine willingness to pay wtp for health related goods however its external validity in the health care domain has not been investigated until now this paper examines the external validity of dce concerning the reduction of a health risk convergent validity is examined by comparing the value of a statistical life with other preference elicitation techniques such as revealed preference criterion validity is shown by comparing wtp values derived from stated choices in the experiment with those derived from actual choices made by the same individuals both tests provide strong evidence in favour of external validity of the dce method

an analysis of uk policies for domestic energy reduction using an agent based tool this paper introduces a new agent based model which incorporates the actions of individual homeowners in a long term domestic stock model and details how it was applied in energy policy analysis the results indicate that current policies are likely to fall significantly short of the 80 target and suggest that current subsidy levels need re examining in the model current subsidy levels appear to offer too much support to some technologies which in turn leads to the suppression of other technologies that have a greater energy saving potential the model can be used by policy makers to develop further scenarios to find alternative more effective sets of policy measures the model is currently limited to the owner occupied stock in england although it can be expanded subject to the availability of data

valuing the influence of underlying attitudes and the demand for organic milk in japan subjective perceptions about a product affect consumer choice accordingly acquiring the underlying demand characteristics that consumers find desirable is vital for firms planning future marketing strategies however the extent to which product specific perceptions affect consumer choice is poorly understood new agricultural standards for organic livestock were introduced in japan in november 2005 and are expected to influence the market significantly choice modeling cm is used to explore how consumers evaluate the latent demands and conventional attributes or tangible values of organic milk the results suggest that latent demands along with socioeconomic characteristics and conventional attributes provide strong incentives for consumers to move from the purchase of conventional milk to organic milk the analysis indicates that latent demands reflecting the safeness of organic milk the better taste of organic milk the image of environmental friendliness in the production process and the image of the health and comfort of the cows are important factors that influence consumers purchasing decisions however each specific factor has a corresponding conventional tangible attribute that needs to be targeted in marketing strategy

gender specific starting point bias in choice experiments evidence from an empirical study abstract in this paper we test whether preferences and willingness to pay estimates obtained in a choice experiment study are susceptible to starting point bias as is often the case in dichotomous choice contingent valuation studies on the basis of a multinomial probit model we find that preferences are indeed susceptible to starting point bias in a split sample design our results suggest that varying the price levels displayed in a so called instructional choice set presented prior to the actual preference eliciting choice sets significantly impacts respondents preferences and willingness to pay for protecting danish nature areas from new motorway development in particular our results show that the bias is gender specific only female respondents are significantly affected results further reveal that the impact of the starting point bias decays as respondents evaluate more and more choice sets this supports the discovered preference hypothesis and on the basis of this we suggest a number of ways to potentially mitigate the starting point bias

does one size fit all heterogeneity in the valuation of community forestry programs abstract through the implementation of a choice experiment valuation exercise this study set out to identify the set of community plantation attributes that impact the welfare of potential community forestry program participants we employed a combination of choice models to evaluate the preferences welfare impacts and choice elasticities associated with alternative community forestry programs allowing for different assumptions regarding heterogeneity in line with economic theory increased participation costs reduced the demand for community forestry while increases in expected productivity raised the demand with respect to preferences for the other alternatives considered type of forest area enclosure and type of land upon which the forest was to be situated the results point to significant differences in preferences across the study population suggesting that programs should be tailored to the communities in which the program is to be implemented

forest tenure reform in china a choice experiment on farmers property rights preferences decentralization experiments are currently underway in the chinese forestry sector however researchers and policy makers tend to ignore a key question what do forest farmers really want from reform this paper addresses this question using a survey based choice experiment to investigate farmers preferences for various property rights attributes of a forestland contract we found that farmers are highly concerned with the types of rights provided by a contract reducing perceived risks of contract termination and introducing a priority right for the renewal of an existing contract significantly increases farmers marginal willingness to pay for a forest contract

cross sectional estimation in marketing direct versus reverse regression empirical results in marketing research are often derived from linear additive models estimated on cross sectional data an underlying assumption of these model specifications is that each exogenous variable contributes an additive effect to the endogenous variable measuring these additive effects is problematic if some components of the endogenous variable are not observable to the researcher reliance on observable correlates to capture those aspects of the endogenous variable might require reverse regression to ensure unbiasedness of the estimated effects in contrast to direct regression used exclusively in marketing research reverse regression first estimates the effect of the endogenous variable on those correlates and then derives unbiased estimates of the additive effect of other exogenous variables specified in the basic model this paper discusses the reverse regression approach relying on recently published analytic results a statistically powerful and analytically simple test is developed which allows the marketing researcher to assess a priori whether direct or reverse regression will provide unbiased parameter estimates an empirical illustration focuses on the measurement of potential market share rewards for pioneering businesses contained in the pims data base other areas in marketing where the issue of direct versus reverse regression is pertinent are mentioned

bayesian conjoint choice designs for measuring willingness to pay in this paper we propose a new criterion for selecting efficient conjoint choice designs when the interest is in quantifying willingness to pay wtp the new criterion which we call the wtp optimality criterion is based on the c optimality criterion which is often used in the optimal experimental design literature we use a simulation study to evaluate the designs generated using the wtp optimality criterion and discuss the design of a real life conjoint experiment from the literature the results show that the new criterion leads to designs that yield more precise estimates of the wtp than bayesian d optimal conjoint choice designs which are increasingly being seen as the state of the art designs for conjoint choice studies and to a substantial reduction in the occurrence of unrealistically high wtp estimates

do hypothetical and actual marginal willingness to pay differ in choice experiments application to the valuation of the environment abstract in this paper we test the validity of choice experiments with donations for environmental projects in particular we test whether or not there are differences in preferences between a hypothetical and an actual choice experiment our experiments indicate no differences in addition internal tests of validity indicate transitive and stable preferences in both experiments although there are some indications of possible learning effects during the experiment

risk and global economic architecture why full financial integration may be undesirable integration of global financial markets was supposed to lead to greater financial stability as risks were spread around the world the finan cial crisis has thrown doubt on this conclusion a failure in one part of the global economic system caused a global meltdown the recent crisis has shown that in the absence of appro priate government intervention privately profit able transactions may lead to systemic risk this paper provides a general analytic framework within which we can analyze the optimal degree and form of financial integration within this general framework full integration is not in general optimal indeed faced with a choice between two polar regimes full integration or autarky in the simplified model autarky may be superior

using cheap talk as a test of validity in choice experiments abstract in two experiments on the choice of consumer goods the estimated marginal willingness to pay for food is found to be lower in the survey version with cheap talk our test can be seen as a test of hypothetical bias this implies that we cannot reject the hypothesis of a hypothetical bias for marginal wtp in choice experiments

low energy efficiency in rental properties asymmetric information or low willingness to pay abstract asymmetric information may explain low energy efficiency in rented properties energy ratings while a solution to the information problem will only lead to higher efficiency levels if renter s willingness to pay wtp exceeds landlord s investment costs using a sample of renters from one university this paper estimates this wtp using a discrete choice experiment where respondents choose from a hypothetical set of single bedroom apartments that differ according to a number of attributes including the energy rating results show that there is a strong disutility associated with the least efficient properties and that renters will pay significantly more for efficiency improvements at the lower end of the efficiency scale importantly our wtp estimates are calculated in a setting where respondents were informed about the energy rating system prior to choosing and where the rating was shown for every property therefore in order to maximise the impact of energy rating systems policymakers are encouraged to ensure that both these informational characteristics are in place

valuing indigenous cattle breeds in kenya an empirical comparison of stated and revealed preference value estimates abstract in this study we compare revealed and stated preference approaches to value traits of cattle in kenya the premise is that much can be learnt about non market values of indigenous animal genetic resources angr from the use of multi attribute stated preference methods if these compare well with revealed preference results the objective is to investigate the performance of choice experiments ces in maasai cattle trading by conducting an external test of preference consistency we compare value estimates for cattle attributes from ces data with those from hedonic analysis of actual transactions by the same population of traders in the same markets and over the same period if ces perform well they can be used to investigate values of those genetically determined livestock traits currently not prominent in pastoralists populations but desirable candidates for breeding or conservation programmes e g disease resistance the results indicate that ce estimates pass the external test and appear to be adequately precise in estimating values for cattle traits that are relevant in market transactions for maasai traders accounting for taste and variance heterogeneity does not change this conclusion ces may therefore be a promising tool for valuing phenotypic traits expressed by indigenous angr

an incentive compatible conjoint ranking mechanism a simple method for making ranking based conjoint analysis incentive compatible is proposed the incentive compatible mechanism involves people purchasing a product profile with a probability proportional to its assigned rank in an empirical application related to consumer preferences for beef attributes we find that the forecasted market share for a new pasture raised steak obtained using incentive compatible rankings was significantly greater than that implied from traditional hypothetical conjoint rankings people s rankings of ground beef products were not affected by the mechanism or by information about pasture raised beef copyright 2008 oxford university press

contract cheating the market in essays we conduct the first empirical economic investigation of the decision to cheat by university students we investigate student demand for essays using hypothetical discrete choice experiments in conjunction with consequential holt laury gambles to derive subjects risk preferences students stated willingness to participate in the essay market and their valuation of purchased essays vary with the characteristics of student and institutional environment risk preferring students those working in a non native language and those believing they will attain a lower grade are willing to pay more purchase likelihoods and essay valuations decline as the probability of detection and associated penalty increase

should all choices count using the cut offs approach to edit responses in a choice experiment should we give equal weight to all responses in a choice experiment previous choice modelling papers have considered the issue of the internal consistency of choices such as the extent to which strictly dominated options are chosen in this paper a different focus is employed namely the extent to which people choose options which violate their stated upper or lower limits for the acceptable levels for individual attributes since hypothetical over statement of wtp has been a focus in stated preference studies we concentrate on violations of stated upper limits of wtp and explore the effects of editing such choices using a variable censoring rule and alternative approaches to re classifying choices the empirical case study is a choice experiment on eco tourists in rwanda our main conclusion is that the suggested approach offers a useful way of imposing consistency on choices and that editing choices in this manner has an appreciable impact on estimated willingness to pay however issues remain with regard to explaining why people apparently violate their stated maximum willingness to pay

estimating willingness to pay do health and environmental researchers have different methodological standards health and environmental economists have been employing stated preference sp methods such as conjoint analysis or contingent valuation to estimate the monetary value of public health interventions and environmental goods and services however the quality of data and the validity of results are sensitive to a number of decisions researchers make the aim of this study is to compare the degree of the current consensus among active researchers in the rapidly evolving area of sp methods in health and environmental valuation we surveyed researchers who have published manuscripts on sp methods in the last 10 years researchers were presented with hypothetical sp studies with different attributes they were first asked which study they would recommend to use to inform policy decisions and then asked which study has better quality our results show that good practice sp methods vary among study features and among researchers with different amounts and kinds of research experience although health researchers

consumer benefits of labels and bans on gm foods choice experiments with swedish consumers the european union has been relatively cautious about using biotechnology in food production a label regime combined with the right of individual member states to ban introduction of new genetically modified gm strains means that gm food products in effect are banned in many countries we show how it is possible to empirically test whether a ban can be motivated by reference to potential negative externalities this is followed up by results from a choice experiment we cannot reject the hypothesis of equal wtp for a ban and a labeling scheme

using choice experiments to value the environment this paper we outline the choice experiment approach to environmental valuation this approach has its roots in lancaster s characteristics theory of value in random utility theory and in experimental design we show how marginal values for the attributes of environmental assets such as forests and rivers can be estimated from pair wise choices as well as the value of the environmental asset as a whole these choice pairs are designed so as to allow efficient statistical estimation of the underlying utility function and to minimise required sample size choice experiments have important advantages over other environmental valuation methods such as contingent valuation and travel cost type models although many design issues remain unresolved applications to environmental issues have so far been relatively limited we illustrate the use of choice experiments with reference to a recent uk study on public preferences for alternative forest landscapes this study allows us to perform a convergent validity test on the choice experiment estimates of willingness to pay

contingent valuation a new perspective after several decades of academic research on the contingent valuation cv method a consistent behavioral explanation of hypothetical bias is still lacking based on evidence from economics economic psychology and the political sciences i propose an explanation that is based on two simple working hypotheses about respondent behaviour in contingent valuation surveys the first hypothesis is that survey respondents are unable to form consistent preferences about unfamiliar goods unless the choice context offers reliable informative cues that can be rationally exploited in simplified heuristics the second hypothesis is that the probability and impact of strategic responses in dichotomous choice questions about public goods depends on the extent to which the presented hypothetical costs differ from the actual costs the literature on hypothetical bias is revisited in the light of these behavioral hypotheses i find that the hypotheses are generally supported by the empirical data moreover the hypotheses are able to explain several important empirical phenomena that previous research has not been able to explain in particular they solve the puzzle that pre election polls but not cv surveys are able to predict actual referendum outcomes and they explain why income effects on willingness to pay are lower in cv responses than in actual votes if confirmed by further studies the hypotheses will have important implications for future research and practice first the hypothetical costs presented in the dichotomous choice question should to be close enough to the actual costs to be credible to all respondents this can be achieved by specifying the costs as a percentage rather than absolute change in taxes second the respondents should be given the option to answer based on information about the positions of large parties and interest groups with known political orientation rather than based on the raw policy information theory and evidence suggest that this new survey paradigm largely eliminates the fundamental problems of the conventional stated preference methods

the effects of changing cost vectors on choices and scale heterogeneity choice experiments ce are widely used to estimate the values of changes in non market goods and services a cost attribute is typically included in a ce questionnaire to enable the estimation of monetary values for changes in the non market attributes presented notwithstanding the central importance of the cost attribute relatively little research has been undertaken on the impacts of varying cost attribute levels on value estimates or on individual heterogeneity in this paper i present results from mixed logit and generalised mixed logit models that account for unobserved idiosyncratic preference and scale heterogeneity respondents are found to anchor their choices on the relative cost levels presented in the survey with results suggesting that people are more sensitive to relative rather than absolute cost vectors however the higher cost levels do not lead to significantly higher value estimates partly because of observed preference heterogeneity towards the environmental attributes an important observation is that scale heterogeneity is important accounting for scale as well as preference heterogeneity in the generalised mixed logit model leads to significantly improved model fit the results indicate significant unobserved error variance across respondents unrelated to whether a high or low cost vector is used

releasing the trap a method to reduce inattention bias in survey data with application to u s beer taxes this study uses discrete choice experiments to explore the efficacy of prompts targeted at reducing inattention bias upon receiving feedback inattentive respondents are given the opportunity to reanswer a so called trap question that checks for attentiveness we find that individuals who miss trap questions and do not correctly revise their responses have significantly different choice patterns as compared to individuals who correctly answer the trap question adjusting for these inattentive responses has a substantive impact on policy impacts results based on attentive participant responses indicate that a minimum beer price would have to be substantial to substantially reduce beer demand jel c83 q18 q51

liaisons dangereuses increasing connectivity risk sharing and systemic risk the recent financial crisis poses the challenge to understand how systemic risk arises endogenously and what architecture can make the financial system more resilient to global crises this paper shows that a financial network can be most resilient for intermediate levels of risk diversification and not when this is maximal as generally thought so far this finding holds in the presence of the financial accelerator i e when negative variations in the financial robustness of an agent tend to persist in time because they have adverse effects on the agent s subsequent performance through the reaction of the agent s counterparties 2012 elsevier b v all rights reserved

monetary valuation of insurance against flood risk under climate change climate change is projected to increase the risk of natural disasters such as floods and storms in certain regions this is likely to raise the demand for natural disaster insurance we present a stated preference survey using choice modeling with mixed logit estimation methods in order to examine the effects of climate change and the availability of government compensation on the demand for flood insurance by dutch homeowners currently no private insurance against flood damage is offered in the netherlands the results indicate that there are opportunities for the development of a flood insurance market 2012 by the economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

consumer reaction to information on food additives evidence from an eating experiment and a field survey abstract both the presence absence of food additives and provision of accurate information pertaining to the same are considered to be important factors affecting individuals purchase decisions in this paper we apply the choice experiment approach under both real the laboratory experiment and hypothetical the field survey environments to investigate how consumers value a food additive sodium nitrite present in ham sandwiches and whether the provision of information about sodium nitrite affects individuals choice the results suggest that in both real and hypothetical situations participants do not favor the use of sodium nitrite per se regardless of whether or not the detailed information is provided moreover the willingness to pay values for ham sandwiches without sodium nitrite are estimated to be lower in the experiment and higher in the survey after negative and positive information is provided implying that the effect of information provision differs between these two environments in addition further investigation of the participants reasons for choosing ham sandwiches indicates that the information related to flavor seems to have more influence on the consumers choice behavior in a real situation while the information associated with health risk is like to play a relatively more important role in a hypothetical situation

convergent validity of attribute based choice questions in stated preference studies the application of attribute based choice questions is well established in the marketing literature but there are unique aspects of the design that warrant investigation to assess their validity for economic welfare estimation three design issues are investigated in this paper 1 the placement of the monetary stimulus policy cost to respondents in the sequence of attributes 2 the number of policy alternatives respondents are asked to consider in choice questions two versus three and 3 the inclusion versus exclusion of a status quo alternative in choice questions the data used to implement these investigations are from a survey designed to estimate the value maine residents place on a farmland conservation easement program tests of convergent validity indicate that the placement of the monetary stimulus first versus last in the list of attributes did not affect estimates of preference parameters significant differences between questions with three versus two alternatives did occur and the inclusion exclusion of a status quo alternative did not affect preference parameters

are valuations from nonhypothetical choice experiments different from those of experimental auctions due to the importance of comparability and external validity of results nonhypothetical experimental methods are increasingly used to elicit consumers willingness to pay for various goods two of the increasingly popular preference elicitation methods are the nonhypothetical choice experiments and experimental auctions we conduct experiments to compare willingness to pay estimates elicited from both methods our results generally suggest that valuations elicited from experimental auctions can differ from those obtained from nonhypothetical choice experiments copyright 2011 oxford university press

a choice experiment on fuel taxation and earmarking in norway abstract pigouvian taxes are efficient but unpopular among voters and hence often politically infeasible earmarking of revenues has been widely reported to increase public support for taxes but earmarking is generally not the most efficient use of the revenues this trade off between efficiency and political feasibility is the motivation for our primary research objective to quantify the effect of earmarking on support for fuel tax rises our secondary research objective is to investigate why earmarking increases support using data from a representative sample of the norwegian voter population n 1147 we estimate models of voter preferences for fuel taxes using logistic regression models our results show that in the absence of earmarking the majority of voters would like to reduce fuel taxes but earmarking the revenues for environmental measures has a substantial effect on voter support for fuel tax increases garnering a majority for increases of up to 15 above present levels further analysis indicates that a prime reason why earmarking for environmental measures is popular is that it increases the perceived environmental effectiveness of the tax and hence its legitimacy as an environmental rather than a fiscal policy instrument

effects of cheap talk on consumer willingness to pay for golden rice a large body of literature suggests willingness to pay is overstated in hypothetical valuation questions as compared to when actual payment is required recently cheap talk has been proposed to eliminate the potential bias in hypothetical valuation questions cheap talk refers to process of explaining hypothetical bias to individuals prior to asking a valuation question this study explores the effect of cheap talk in a mass mail survey using a conventional value elicitation technique results indicate that cheap talk was effective at reducing willingness to pay for most survey participants however consistent with previous research cheap talk did not reduce willingness to pay for knowledgeable consumers

asset commonality debt maturity and systemic risk we develop a model in which asset commonality and short term debt of banks interact to generate excessive systemic risk banks swap assets to diversify their individual risk two asset structures arise in a clustered structure groups of banks hold common asset portfolios and default together in an unclustered structure defaults are more dispersed portfolio quality of individual banks is opaque but can be inferred by creditors from aggregate signals about bank solvency when bank debt is short term creditors do not roll over in response to adverse signals and all banks are ine ciently liquidated this information contagion is more likely under clustered asset structures in contrast when bank debt is long term welfare is the same under both asset structures

valuing wetland attributes an application of choice experiments abstract the interest for wetlands is increasing not only because of the possibility of a cost efficient uptake of nutrients but also because wetlands can be designed to provide other services what values that are supplied depend largely on the design there are numerous different design options and different actors may promote different alternatives whether we want to design a wetland for nutrient retention alone or one that also serves other interests policy makers need information about the value of different options conducting a choice experiment we are able to identify attributes that increase and decrease citizens perceived value of wetlands using a random parameter model we find that biodiversity and walking facilities are the two greatest contributors to welfare while a fenced waterline and introduction of crayfish decrease welfare

tough and easy choices testing the influence of utility difference on stated certainty in choice in choice experiments respondents in stated preference studies may be uncertain about their preferences for the good presented to them inspired by wang j environ econ manag 32 219 232 1997 we hypothesize that respondents stated certainty in choice increases with the utility difference between the alternative chosen and the best alternative to that we test this hypothesis using data from two independent choice experiments both focusing on nature values in modelling respondents self reported certainty in choice we find evidence that the stated level of certainty increases significantly as utility difference in choice sets increases in addition stated certainty increases with income furthermore there is some evidence that male respondents are inherently more certain in their choices than females and a learning effect may increase stated certainty we find evidence of this in the first study where the good is described in rather broad and generic terms but not in the second study where a more specific description of the good is used

learning and fatigue effects revisited investigating the effects of accounting for unobservable preference and scale heterogeneity using multiple choice tasks per respondent in discrete choice experiment studies increases the amount of available information however respondents learning and fatigue may lead to changes in observed utility function preference taste parameters as well as the variance in its error term scale they need to be controlled to avoid potential bias a sizable body of empirical research offers mixed evidence in terms of whether these ordering effects are observed we point to a significant component in explaining these differences we show how accounting for unobservable preference and scale heterogeneity can influence the magnitude of observed ordering effects

validation of stated preferences for public goods a comparison of contingent valuation survey response and voting behaviour this study reports the results from an in person comparison of contingent valuation cv survey response and subsequent voting behaviour on comparable propositions to increase public spending for landscape protection a substantial proportion of cv responses were not consistent with self reported actual voting decisions suggesting an upward bias of stated willingness to pay item non response and protest zero bids were more frequently given by those rejecting than those approving the actual proposition self reported actual decisions yielded a more consistent explanatory pattern than did hypothetical choices the official aggregate voting records show that these results cannot be explained simply by errors in self reported votes we conclude that referenda provide a valuable opportunity to test stated preference methods for public goods particularly public goods with significant passive use values however an important requirement is that the stated choices to be compared with the referendum decisions unlike in previous studies come from independent contingent valuation surveys

effect of experimental design on choice based conjoint valuation estimates in this article we investigate the effect of several commonly used experimental designs on willingness to pay in a monte carlo environment where true utility parameters are known all experimental designs considered in this study generated unbiased valuation estimates however random designs or designs that explicitly incorporated attribute interactions generated more precise valuation estimates than main effects only designs a key result of our analysis is that a large sample size can substitute for a poor experimental design overall our results indicate that certain steps can be taken to achieve a manageably sized experimental design without sacrificing the credibility of welfare estimates

the state of the art of environmental valuation with discrete choice experiments abstract this paper provides with a review of the state of the art of environmental valuation with discrete choice experiments dces the growing body of literature on this field serves to emphasize the increasing role that dces are playing in environmental decision making in the last decade the paper attempts to cover the full process of undertaking a choice experiment including survey and experimental design econometric analysis of choice data and welfare analysis the research on this field is found to be intense although many challenges are put forward e g choice task complexity and cognitive effort experimental design preference and scale heterogeneity endogeneity or model uncertainty reviewing the state of the art of dces serves to draw attention to the main challenges that this methodological approach will need to overcome in the coming years and to identify the frontiers in discrete choice analysis

reliability of stated preferences for cholera and typhoid vaccines with time to think in hue vietnam weexaminetheeffectofgivingrespondentstimetothinkabouttheirstatedchoices sc in a survey of cholera and typhoid vaccine preferences in hue vietnam because neither vaccine is widely available in vietnam we used the sc approach a stated preference technique and gave half of our respondents overnight to think about their choices to make the hypothetical valuation scenario as similar to a real life choice situation as possible respondents who were given extra time made fewer choices that violated internal validity tests of utility theory and had lower average willingness to pay wtp confirming a result found in similar studies in the contingent valuation literature jel d12 i18 c25

a survey based choice experiment on coca cultivation from 1997 to 2005 an astonishing 5200 million usd was invested to reduce cocaine production in colombia the world s main cocaine producer however little is known about the effectiveness of policies targeting coca cultivation this paper uses a survey based experiment to evaluate the effects of the two main policies eradication and alternative development programs our results support becker s 1968 model of crime participation and in addition shed light on other non monetary factors that affect the coca cultivation decision religion legitimacy remoteness and poverty are found to be important we find that coca cultivation is inelastic to increases in perceived risk and relative profit so eradication and alternative development would have a rather small effect on coca cultivation a simple simulation exercise predicts that investing additional hundred thousand dollars in eradication decreases coca cultivation in only 1 5 c 2009 elsevier b v all rights reserved less

too interconnected to fail financial network of us cds market topological fragility and systemic risk a small segment of credit default swaps cds on residential mortgage backed securities rmbs stand implicated in the 2007 financial crisis the dominance of a few big players in the chains of insurance and reinsurance for cds credit risk mitigation for banks assets has led to the idea of too interconnected to fail titf resulting as in the case of aig of a tax payer bailout we provide an empirical reconstruction of the us cds network based on the fdic call reports for off balance sheet bank data for the 4th quarter in 2007 and 2008 the propagation of financial contagion in networks with dense clustering which reflects high concentration or localization of exposures between few participants will be identified as one that is titf those that dominate in terms of network centrality and connectivity are called super spreaders management of systemic risk from bank failure in uncorrelated random networks is different to those with clustering as systemic risk of highly connected financial firms in the cds or any other financial markets is not priced into their holding of capital and collateral we design a super spreader tax based on eigenvector centrality of the banks which can mitigate potential socialized losses

preferences for site and environmental functions when selecting forthcoming national parks abstract a political decision to establish the first ever national parks in denmark allowed us to examine if people hold preferences regarding which site to be designated as national park separate from the preferences for its environmental functions to this end we designed a choice experiment representing the national park alternatives by the possible site and the possible improvements in environmental functions results revealed that respondents have strong preferences for the establishment of a national park per se furthermore there are significant differences in taste parameters for the different sites which cannot be explained by respondents valuing the different functions differently across sites instead we explain the results with differences in regional and cultural preferences we also performed a balanced split sample test of anchoring effects and found clear evidence of this we included a zero bidder screening question prior to the choice set part of the survey instrument to improve wtp estimation

preferences with and without prices does the price attribute affect behavior in stated preference surveys the experimental as well as the non market valuation literature include several examples of how an introduced price can affect behavior in otherwise not expected ways it has become standard to include a price vector as an attribute in choice experiments something that enables us to estimate a marginal willingness to pay for other attributes we test the impact on preferences by an inclusion of a price in a choice experiment preferences are affected as might be expected however also the relative ranking of individual attributes is affected

financial networks contagion commitment and private sector bailouts i develop a model of financial networks in which linkages not only spread contagion but also induce private sector bailouts where liquid banks bail out illiquid banks because of the threat of contagion introducing this bailout possibility i show that linkages may be optimal ex ante because they allow banks to obtain some mutual insurance even though formal commitments are impossible however in some cases e g when liquidity is concentrated among a small group of banks the whole network may collapse i also characterize the optimal network size and apply the results to joint liability arrangements and payment systems linkages among agents in financial markets are a concern because of the risk of financial contagion that is the risk that a small shock to one agent will spread to other agents in a domino effect whether we should worry about these linkages is an open question the main goal of this paper is to show that a network in which agents are closely interlinked may be optimal both because of and despite the potential for contagion another goal is to characterize optimal networks that is whether and how agents should be linked to one another the basic intuition is as follows linkages present the threat of contagion to prevent collapse of the whole network agents who are lucky ex post may be willing to bail out those who are not in this way agents obtain the benefits of mutual insurance even though they cannot precommit to making payments

an investigation into procedural in variance in the valuation of mortality risk reductions abstract this study investigates whether elicited preferences are affected by the presentation of mortality risks in a stated preference survey we elicited willingness to pay for public risk reducing initiatives under three different but outcome equivalent presentation format results from a discrete choice experiment demonstrate that presentation format influences the valuation of mortality risk reductions which to varying degrees depends on the respondent s level of concern and numeracy marginal willingness to pay for a risk reduction increases significantly when framed in terms of avoided fatalities compared to corresponding frequencies furthermore we find that less numerate respondents are more influenced by the inclusion of the number of fatalities in the presentation format the same pattern is observed for respondents who express a higher degree of concern for a traffic accident

position dependent order effects on the prediction of consumer preferences in repeated choice experiments abstractusing stated choice data collected by experimental design with repeated choice tasks this study developed an approach to quantify the position dependent order effects on the prediction of

rollover risk and market freezes the debt capacity of an asset is the maximum amount that can be borrowed using the asset as collateral we model a sudden collapse in the debt capacity of good collateral we assume short term debt that must be frequently rolled over a small transaction cost of selling collateral in the event of default and a small probability of meeting a buy to hold investor we then show that a small change in the asset s fundamental value can be associated with a catastrophic drop in the debt capacity the kind of market freeze observed during the crisis of 2007 to 2008 one of the many striking features of the crisis of 2007 to 2008 was the sudden freeze in the market for the rollover of short term debt from an in stitutional perspective the inability to borrow overnight against high quality but long term assets was a market failure that effectively led to the demise of a substantial part of investment banking in the united states more broadly it led to the collapse in the united states the united kingdom and other countries of banks and other financial institutions that had relied on signifi cant maturity mismatch between assets and liabilities and in particular on the rollover of short term wholesale debt in the asset backed commercial paper abcp and overnight sale and repurchase repo markets in this paper we are interested in developing a model of a sudden collapse in the ability to borrow short term against long lived assets in the absence of obvious problems of asymmetric information or fears about the value of col lateral we refer to this phenomenon as a market freeze more precisely a market freeze occurs when the debt capacity the maximum amount of collat eralized borrowing that can be supported by an asset is a small fraction of the fundamental value the economic value measured by the net present value npv of the stream of future returns an extreme form of a market freeze occurs when the fundamental value is close to the maximum possible value of the asset whereas the debt capacity is close to the minimum possible value of the asset

effects of label information on consumer willingness to pay for food attributes choice experiments ces are often used to elicit consumer willingness to pay wtp for food attributes a concern about these approaches is that food attributes provided to respondents are assumed independent of attributes not provided we use surveys containing a series of ces to investigate effects of adding beef steak attributes wtp for important attributes in the ces decrease when the number of attributes increases from three to four while wtp increases when the number of attributes increases from four to five changes in wtp for attributes depend on their relationships with newly added attributes and the number of attributes presented copyright 2007 oxford university press

dynamic hypothetical bias in discrete choice experiments evidence from measuring the impact of corporate social responsibility on consumers demand abstract this paper is aimed at studying the dynamics of consumers preferences for corporate social responsibility the data come from both a discrete choice experiment dce and a field experiment conducted in a real market setting the results show that in a static setting first month predictions of a standard dce study and real market shares are statistically similar for the various profiles of corporate social responsibility however as time evolves real market shares present some dynamic patterns that are not mirrored by the standard dce predictions the overall conclusion is that differences between real market behavior and dce data can be attributed to the lack of learning experience or adaptation in dce surveys rather than to the hypothetical nature of the experiments

generating electricity with forest biomass consistency and payment timeframe effects in choice experiments abstract this paper presents a choice experiment analyzing the consumers preferences towards a policy for replacing conventional electricity with electricity generated from forest biomass the results show that consumers specially prefer the effects related to the lower risk of forest fires and to the decrease in pressure on non renewable resources the article also presents a methodological test in relation to the payment timeframe and its effect on marginal willingness to pay and consistency of responses using choice experiments the most frequent and realistic payments are associated with lower presence of inconsistent responses finally we cannot reject the null hypothesis of no effects of payment timeframe on marginal willingness to pay

assessing the olympic games the economic impact and beyond this study reviews the literature on the evaluation of the olympic games within the broader framework of their significance as cultural assets and opportunities for endogenous growth and sustainable development of the host city the study reviews the main approaches to the economic assessment of the games from the point of view of the underlying economic concepts and methodologies as well as of the empirical results obtained it focuses on the effects that are measured and on those which even though important are generally neglected the methodologies utilized for the quantitative assessments of the games are reviewed with special emphasis on impact and cost benefit analysis both on ex ante and ex post basis the studies surveyed are analysed from the point of view of different sets of effects on the host city and for a limited number of cases on the host country while the major focus is on hosting the summer olympics some attention is also paid to the bidding cities the winter olympics and the paralympics the general findings appear to be controversial with some hints of positive overall effects but also with a well documented tendency to exaggerate the benefits and underestimate the costs of holding the games in the ex ante versus the ex post studies the survey finally suggests that ex post cross country econometric studies tend to catch sizable differential and persistent benefits ignored by individual studies especially on macroeconomic and trade variables