credit constraints equity market liberalizations and international trade abstract this paper provides evidence that credit constraints are an important determinant of international trade flows i exploit shocks to the availability of external finance and examine the impact of equity market liberalizations on the export behavior of 91 countries in the 1980 1997 period i show that liberalizations increase exports disproportionately more in financially vulnerable sectors that require more outside finance or employ fewer collateralizable assets this result is not driven by cross country differences in factor endowments and is independent of simultaneous trade policy reforms moreover it obtains with equal strength in the full panel of countries as well as in both panel and event study analyses of countries which removed capital controls during the sample period finally the effects of liberalizations are more pronounced in economies with initially less active stock markets indicating that foreign equity flows may substitute for an underdeveloped domestic financial system similarly opening equity markets has a greater impact in the presence of higher trade costs caused by restrictive trade policies

the environmental kuznets curve environmental protection policy and income distribution abstract the effect of economic growth on pollution emissions differs substantially among high income countries i address this issue by analyzing public environmental policy decisions individual heterogeneity relative income effect and the political framework in which policy decisions are taken determine the emergence of the downward sloping segment of the environmental kuznets curve ekc income inequality produces a gap between the country s ability to pay for environmental protection and a country s willingness to pay i test this result by using oecd data on public r d expenditure for environmental protection the conclusion is that contrary to the ek hypothesis moments of the income distribution function other than the mean may be important for the emergence of a virtuous path of sustainable growth in high income countries

is protectionism on the rise assessing national trade policies during the crisis of 2008 to understand the role of trade policies in the crisis of 2008 this paper constructs the overall trade restrictiveness indices for a wide range of countries using their tariff schedules in 2008 and 2009 the index summarizes the trade policy stance of a country taking into account the share of each good in trade as well as its corresponding import demand elasticity results show that there is no widespread increase in protectionism via tariff policies since the global financial crisis has unfolded while many countries have adjusted tariffs upward on selected products only a handful of countries such as malawi russia argentina turkey and china focus on products that have significant impacts on trade flows the united states and the european union by contrast rely mainly on anti dumping duties to shield domestic industries overall while the rise in tariffs and anti dumping duties in these countries may have jointly caused global trade to drop by as much as us 43 billion during the crisis period it explains less than 2 percent of the collapse in world trade

an economic theory of self control the concept of self control is incorporated in a theory of individual intertemporal choice by modeling the individual as an organization the individual at a point in time is assumed to be both a farsighted planner and a myopic doer the resulting conflict is seen to be fundamentally similar to the agency conflict between the owners and managers of a firm both individuals and firms use the same techniques to mitigate the problems which the conflicts create this paper stresses the implications of this agency model and discusses as applications the effect of pensions on saving saving and the timing of income flows and individual discount rates

credit market imperfections and patterns of international trade and capital flows this paper offers two simple models to illustrate how corporate governance contractual enforcement and the balance sheet condition of the business sector etc can affect the patterns of international trade and capital flows in the presence of credit market imperfections jel d52 f15 f21 f40

off the cliff and back credit conditions and international trade during the global financial crisis abstract we study the collapse of international trade flows during the global financial crisis using detailed data on monthly us imports we show that credit conditions were an important channel through which the crisis affected trade volumes by exploiting the variation in the cost of capital across countries and over time as well as the variation in financial vulnerability across sectors countries with higher interbank rates and thus tighter credit markets exported less to the us during the peak of the crisis this effect was especially pronounced in sectors that require extensive external financing have limited access to trade credit or have few collateralizable assets exports of financially vulnerable industries were thus more sensitive to the cost of external capital than exports of less vulnerable industries and this sensitivity rose during the financial crisis the quantitative implications of our estimates for trade volumes highlight the large real effects of financial crises and the potential gains from policy intervention

a comparison of determinants of urban rural and farm poverty in costa rica abstract the lack of progress on reducing poverty in third world countries and its growth during the 1980s show that one of the fundamental goals of development has not been met addressing the renewed concern with poverty requires knowledge about the factors affecting poverty this paper uses logistic regression analysis to estimate the effects of variables on urban rural farm and nonfarm poverty among households in costa rica results show the complexity of the issue and imply policies to expand education through the secondary level to create more opportunities for rural off farm employ

poverty and public policy the problem of poverty is particularly acute in india with 14 of the world s population we have the misfortune of having almost twice as large a share of the world s poor indeed as i shall presently underline the question of poverty and its amelioration has been at the center of our concerns from the beginning of our planning efforts almost four decades ago little therefore can be said on it that some distinguished indian economist has not already said in some ways therefore to talk on the design of public policy for poverty to an indian audience is to carry coal to newcastle or as the old saying goes to teach your grandmother how to suck eggs nonetheless i hope to provide a fresh perspective by putting the problem into an explicit analytical framework that permits alternative policy designs to be sharply defined and contrasted i also intend to draw on international experience to put our efforts and problems into both historical and comparative perspectives

supply chains global financial shocks and firm behaviour towards liquidity needs driven by the increasingly important role of supply chains in global production this paper studies empirical association between global credit market shocks and firm behaviour towards liquidity needs across countries and industries focusing on the adjustment of working capital financing we find two pieces of supporting evidence from international firm level panel data covering the period 2002 i 2012 iv first for industries where specific investment in the input supplier customer relationship is large firms are more exposed to credit market shocks we find that measures of global credit market shocks are negatively associated with trade receivables trade payables and inventories conditional on the level of contract intensity in the industries where firms operate second firms in emerging markets are more vulnerable to credit market shocks than are firms in developed countries we are also able to verify the economic significance of sales growth operating cash flows cash stock and firm size in the overall adjustment our findings highlight the importance of balance sheet contagion along supply chains during the 2007 09 global financial crisis

exchange rate pass through and credit constraints abstract the macroeconomic evidence of the short term impact of exchange rates on exports and prices is notoriously weak this paper examines the microfoundations of this disconnect i study the response of firms export and price setting decisions to fluctuations in exchange rates and credit conditions using firm level survey data financially constrained firms pass through exchange rate changes to prices at almost twice the rate of unconstrained firms similarly their export volumes are about twice as sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations the effect of borrowing constraints is particularly strong during the recent financial crisis

global supply chains and trade policy responses to the 2008 crisis the collapse in trade and the contraction of output that occurred during 2008 9 was comparable to and in many countries more severe than the great depression of the 1930s however it did not give rise to the rampant protectionism that followed the great crash the idea that the rise in the fragmentation of production across global value chains vertical specialization may be a deterrent against protectionism is under appreciated in the literature institutions also played a role in limiting the extent of protectionist responses world trade organization discipline raises the cost of using trade policies for member countries and has proved to be a stable foundation for the open multilateral trading system that has been built over the past 50 years using tradeand protection data for seven large emerging market countries that have a history of active use of trade policy the influence of these and other factors on trade policy responses to the 2008 crisis are empirically examined an instrumental variables strategy is used to identify their impact participation in global value chains is found to be a powerful economic factor determining trade policy responses

trade credit and cross country predictable firm returns we investigate the role of trade credit links in generating cross border return predictability between international firms using data from 42 countries from 1993 to 2009 we find that firms with high trade credit located in producer countries have stock returns that are strongly predictable by the returns of their associated customer countries this behavior is especially prevalent for firms with high levels of foreign sales and is robust to a variety of controls to better understand this effect we develop an asset pricing model in which firms in different countries are connected by trade credit links the model has further predictions about this phenomenon including stronger predictability during periods of high credit constraints and high uninformed trading volume we find supportive empirical evidence for these results

cultural proximity a source of trade flow resilience while the significant influence of cultural proximity on bilateral trade flows has been extensively documented in the literature its possible role in times of crisis has not yet been raised relying on a panel estimation of a gravity model incorporating cultural proximity parameters we evidence the existence of a significant surge in the impact of the different components of cultural proximity during economic recession the trade resilience among countries sharing a cultural bond is not a pure composition effect as it also appears within product categories to understand this unexpected effect we discuss different mechanisms that emphasise the potential mitigating influence of cultural proximity on some determinants of the trade collapse namely the uncertainty shock the increased moral hazard and the emergence of ethnocentric preferences

how well is us intrafirm trade measured abstract using two independent data sources the intrafirm trade data from the us bureau of economic analysis and the related party trade data from the us census bureau i construct and compare measures of us intrafirm exports and imports i find that in general the two datasets provide similar measures of us intrafirm trade particularly for exports understanding the differences that do exist in measurement will likely require study of the confidential micro data at both the bureau of economic analysis and the census bureau

differences in income and poverty within brazil regional disparities in living standards within brazil have received increasing attention in recent years this paper indicates that although costs of living adjustments narrow spatial differences large regional disparities remain particularly upon comparing the northeast and the southeast the application of price indices reduces urban rural variations more than regional differences drastically narrowing the urban rural gap in food consumption poverty is nevertheless much more concentrated in the rural areas than in the urban areas although regional differences in its incidence are more striking than the urban rural divergencies this paper has not primarily concerned the policy implications of these income differentials but tries to highlight the importance of measuring cost of living differences and thus obtaining more accurate measures of income and poverty levels

extra credit bank finance and firm export status in germany this paper estimates the exporter premium in bank lending we examine credit relationships in germany covering all loans of more than 1 5 million euro over the period from 2005 to 2010 having controlled for a wide range of other firm and bank characteristics our results indicate that exporting firms take out loans around 15 percent larger than those of nonexporters

social security and extreme poverty in latin america abstract this article argues that although social security has had a significant impact in preventing a considerable number of people from falling below the extreme poverty level in latin america it has not played an important role in reducing current extreme poverty in the region the analysis is done focusing on three social security objectives protection of the needy affected by social risks progressive income redistribution and promotion of savings investment to reduce inflation and enhance development the author discusses a series of recommendations for achievement of the three cited objectives in order to diminish critical poverty in the future

the impact of banking deregulation on inbound foreign direct investment transaction level evidence from the united states abstract we evaluate the effects of state level banking deregulation that resulted in improved access to cheaper local finance on foreign firms investing in the u s we provide direct micro level evidence from u s inbound foreign direct investment transactions showing that interstate banking but not intrastate branching deregulation increased the number of transactions reduced the average transaction value and boosted overall investment by foreign multinationals we also show that lower cost of local credit and greater local bank competition in each state following the interstate banking deregulation are potential mechanisms that stimulated fdi activity finally we demonstrate that after the adoption of the interstate banking deregulation both the number and the average value of transactions increased in industries that are more dependent on external finance relative to industries that are less dependent

are workers paid their marginal products status is like coase s social costs a reciprocal phenomenon given that one person s gain in status can occur only at the expense of a loss in status for others and that workers are free to choose their coworkers it follows that the competitive wage structure within a firm must be one in which individual wage differences understate individual differences in marginal products the purpose of this paper is to examine a variety of empirical evidence that relates to this proposition about the firm s internal wage structure the paper is organized as follows section i briefly summarizes the theoretical considerations that govern competitive wage determination when status matters to people and firms are viewed as voluntary associations of workers section ii then confronts the predictions of section i by examining pay and productivity schedules for a group of sales occupations for which these schedules are relatively easily observed section ii also examines the relationship between wages and productivity for a sample of university professors an occupation in which individual productivity differences are for a variety of obvious reasons relatively more difficult to measure all of the evidence examined is consistent with the hypothesis that within firms wage rates vary substantially less than do individual productivity values section iii discusses additional observations and evidence that bear on this same hypothesis it suggests that the implicit market for status may strongly influence the ways in which firms are organized to carry out the tasks they perform section iv concludes by considering the claim that egalitarian internal wage structures arise because of equity considerations it argues that the concept of equity appears very closely linked to the concept of status and suggests a strategy for assigning monetaty value to the equity considerations that so often dominate public policy decisions

distributional implications of macroeconomic policy theory and applications to el salvador abstract this article offers a theoretical framework for designing macroeconomic strategy for el salvador that will both respect stabilization and structural adjustment needs and enhance social equity after outlining the largely negative distributional implications of the orthodox policies followed by el salvador in recent years we argue that stabilization and efficiency could actually be improved by increased equity and sketch out the elements of an alternative approach that would be distributionally sensitive and thereby help consolidate the peace

accuracy of forward freight agreements in forecasting future freight rates abstractparticipants in the maritime industry place much interest in the forward freight agreements ffa ffas being an indispensable tool for hedging shipping freight risk our article innovates by directly comparing the ffa predictions with their actual future settlement prices as well as by examining contracts going forward as far as next calendar year we combine straightforward comparison measurements with cointegration analysis to test for the accuracy and efficiency of the ffa projections we find that ffas display limited usefulness in predicting future freights only slightly superior than simple naive models the shorter the contract period and the smaller the vessel the better the forecast we also find ffas being relatively good predictors of future market direction but missing the turning points of the market cycles

economic crisis adjustment and living standards in mexico 1982 85 abstract this paper presents an estimate of the impact of economic crisis and adjustment on the living standards of the mexican population between 1982 and 1985 the analysis is based on information on wage and nonwage incomes unemployment functional income distribution changes in public expenditures and social indicators the specific questions addressed are what happened to agricultural and nonagricultural wage and nonwage incomes how did unemployment and the composition of employment change what was the impact of fiscal cuts on social expenditures and food subsidies were social services affected by declining resources did social indicators worsen in addition households strategies in response to declining incomes are briefly discussed finally conjectures are made regarding which population groups were hurt most by the crisis the results indicate that the crisis and adjustment process left mexico with a relatively impoverished middle class and with rising poverty

estimating earnings poverty in 1939 a comparison of orshansky method and price indexed definitions of poverty official poverty lines do not exist for the united states for years prior to 1959 in this paper a poverty line comparable to the seminal line is constructed for 1939 using the orshansky method poverty rates are then calculated using the earnings data of the 1940 public use microdata sample of the u s census a comparison with similar work by ross et al 1987 demonstrates the degree to which continual price indexing of the poverty line results in inappropriate estimates a trend of increasing incidence of poverty among female headed households prior to 1960 is also revealed

financial markets the pattern of industrial specialization and comparative advantage evidence from oecd countries due to underlying technological and organizational differences industries differ in their need for external finance since services provided by the financial sector are largely immobile across countries the pattern of industrial specialization should be influenced by the level of financial development among oecd countries we find a strong causal effect of the financial sector on industrial specialization further the financial sector is a source of comparative advantage in a way consistent with the hecksher ohlin vanek model results are also presented on which aspects of financial systems are important for specialization and comparative advantage

bank linkages and international trade abstract we uncover a new channel through which international finance is related to trade the formation of international bank linkages increases exports bank linkages are measured for each pair of countries in each year as a number of bank pairs in these two countries that are connected through cross border syndicated lending using a gravity approach to model trade for 66 countries over 24 years with a full set of fixed effects source year target year source target we find that new connections between banks in a given country pair lead to an increase in trade flows between these countries in the following year and to trade diversions from countries competing for similar imports we conjecture that the mechanism for this effect is the role bank linkages play in reducing export risk and present evidence supporting this conjecture in particular using industry level trade data and controlling for country pair year and industry fixed effects we find that new bank linkages have larger impacts on trade in industries which tend to be subject to more export risk for u s banks we can show that bank linkages are positively associated with foreign letter of credit exposures

poverty income distribution and child welfare in latin america a comparison of pre and post recession data abstract the traditional and external dependency of most latin american economies and their recent pattern of growth has made them particularly vulnerable to the unexpected and severe changes of the world economy that began in 1979 1980 even those countries with less open economies have been forced to seek adjustments to the new world situation that are both in nature and consequences essentially different from those of the interdependent industrial economies this paper attempts to evaluate the impact of these recent economic changes on the living conditions of the populations of chile colombia costa rica panama and venezuela it is based on household data and is limited to those aspects of household living conditions that can be observed through the variables included in labour surveys it analyses changes in overall income distribution the movement of different socio economic groups within the income pyramid and changes in these groups livelihood strategies

frames of reference and the quality of life asked to choose most people state confidently that they would rather be killed in an automobile accident than to survive a quadraplegic and so we are not surprised to learn that severely disabled people experience a period of devastating depression and disorientation in the wake of their accidents what we do not expect however are the speed and extent to which many of these victims accommodate to their new circumstances within a year s time many quadraplegics report the same mix of moods and emotions as able bodied people do there is also evidence that the blind the retarded and the malformed are no less happy than other people ads for the new york state lottery show participants fantasizing about how their lives would change if they won i d buy the company and fire my boss people who actually do win the lottery report the anticipated rush of euphoria in the weeks after their good fortune followup studies done after several years however indicate that these people are no happier indeed are in many ways less happy than before as a young man fresh out of college i served as a peace corps volunteer in rural nepal my one room house had no electricity no heat no indoor toilet no running water the local diet offered little variety and virtually no meat and yet at no time during my two year stay in nepal did i experience a sense of material deprivation on the contrary my monthly stipend of 40 was much more than most others in my village had and with it i experienced a feeling of prosperity that i have recaptured only in recent years these observations illustrate the critical role of context as a determinant of human satisfaction the neoclassical economic model of choice abstracts from context saying that utility depends only on the level of consumption consumption levels obviously are important and the neoclassical model performs reasonably well in many instances and yet its narrow focus misses something important to predict people s behavior to draw inferences about their well being or to make intelligent policy decisions we must not only know the relevant levels of consumption but also have an appropriate frame of reference within which to evaluate them

withstanding financial crises would trade partners help or hurt abstarctthis article provides new empirical evidence on the losses of real activity caused by various financial shocks spillover effects due to foreign trade linkages deserve special attention to this end we estimate a modify auto regressive process and a seemingly unrelated regression equations estimator is used to account for the dependency of one s country growth on its trade weighted partners growth we run estimations on a set of currency collapses banking crises and sovereign defaults in 49 advanced and developing countries from 1978 to 2011 the trade weighted foreign demand effect mitigated the economic downturn following a banking or a sovereign debt crisis in all countries while only the advanced ones benefited from it after a currency collapse trade based spillover effects make banking crises more costly in the developing countries in those that liberalize their financial account it contrasts with what is observed during currency or sovereign debt crises

finance and trade a cross country empirical analysis on the impact of financial development and asset tangibility on international trade summary this paper investigates the interplay between financial development asset tangibility and international trade using industry level data on firms dependence on external finance and firms asset tangibility for 27 industries in 42 countries we find that economies with higher levels of financial development have higher export shares and trade balance in industries with more intangible assets using the same dataset we also show that the interplay between property rights protection and asset tangibility influences the pattern of trade higher levels of property rights protection lead to higher export shares and trade balance in industries with more intangible assets

below the line poverty in latin america abstract despite gains in basic welfare indicators poverty remains prevalent in latin america this paper surveys existing data on poverty in the region and discusses the relationship between growth inequality and poverty given the inequality of income distribution in latin america and the slow growth of output policies to overcome poverty must involve more efficient allocation of government resources redistribution and foreign aid

wealth seeking reconsidered abstract if individuals are interested in their relative wealth position they engage in contests for wealth this leads to a steady state with overaccumulation in a simple growth model it is shown that if some individuals are engaged in wealth seeking activity but others are not the latter might benefit however wealth seeking is not welfare enhancing under usual assumptions concerning production technology the steady state equilibrium is characterized by a marginal productivity of capital that is below the steady state rate of time preference and by emergence of a class structure

wage increases and the dynamics of reciprocity we investigate how workers performance is affected by the timing of wages in a real effort experiment in all treatments agents earn the same wage sum but wage increases are distributed differently over time we find that agents work harder under increasing wage profiles if they do not know these profiles in advance a profile that continuously increases wages by small amounts raises performance by about 15 relative to a constant wage the effort reactions can be organized by a model in which agents reciprocally respond to wage impulses comparing wages to an adaptive reference standard determined by the previous wage

import dynamics and demands for protection what kinds of changes in foreign competition lead domestic industries to seek import protection to address this question this paper uses detailed monthly u s import data to investigate changes in import composition during a 24 month window immediately preceding the filing of a petition for protection a decomposition methodology allows a comparison of imports from two groups of countries supplying the same product those that are named in the petition and those that are not the same decomposition can be applied to products quite similar to the imports in question but not subject to a petition the results suggest that industries typically seek protection when faced with a specific pattern of shocks first a persistent positive relative supply shock favors imports from named countries second a negative demand shock hits imports from all sources just prior to domestic industries petition for protection the relative supply shock is a broad one it applies both to named commodities and to the comparison product group the import demand shock by contrast is narrow hitting only named products the latter shock is also large import growth over the two year window is 15 percentage points lower in named products than in reference products with most of this gap arising in the final two quarters before the petition the negative import demand shock appears to be a key event in the run up to the filing of a petition it has been missed by previous studies using more aggregated data

labor market segmentation and the determination of wages in the public private formal and informal sectors in san jose costa rica a striking feature of many cities in less developed countries ldcs is the coexistence of large well organized high technology firms with the small street vendors who own little but a wooden box to sit on this apparent dualism in the urban economy has been a concern of students of economic development for many years several international agencies notably the international labour organisation ilo and the world bank have focused attention on this phenomenon the ilo popularized the terms formal sector and informal sector to describe this dichotomy to many economists one consequence of this dualism is labor market segmentation labor market segmentation plays a crucial role in explanations provided for some important issues such as rural urban migration urban poverty unemployment underemployment and growth 2 in this article i examine the hypothesis that labor market segmentation exists in san jos6 costa rica between the public and private formal sectors and between the privateformal and informal sectors defined in the appendix i define labor market segmentation as a situation where because of institutional barriers to occupational mobility between sectors a worker in the lower sector has less than full access to a job in the upper sector held by an observationally identical worker 3 if there were no barriers workers in the low wage sector would enter the high wage sector and force the wages in that sector down until wages across sectors were equalized that is labor market segmentation implies differences in wages for observationally identical workers relying on this inference most of the empirical literature on labor market segmen

improving the availability of trade finance in low income countries an assessment of remaining gaps conditions in trade finance markets have returned to normality along the main global routes after the global financial crisis of 2008 9 the structural difficulties of poor countries in accessing trade finance have however not disappeared and might have been worsened trade finance markets are characterized by a greater selectivity in risk taking flight to quality customers and a re focusing of global trade finance suppliers banks towards their largest customers in developed countries in that environment it seems that the lower end of the market has been struggling to obtain affordable finance with the smaller companies in the smaller poorer countries most affected this is an area where statis tics are difficult to find and causality hard to establish the paper takes a critical look at some of the recent available mostly survey based information suggesting that a significant trade finance market gap exists in sub saharan africa and poor countries in developing asia it looks at policy steps that are being taken to alleviate in part this situation

us trade and inventory dynamics we examine the source of the large fall and rebound in us trade in the recent recession while trade fell and rebounded more than expenditures or production of traded goods we find that relative to the magnitude of the downturn these trade fluctuations were in line with those in previous business cycle fluctuations we argue that the high volatility of trade is attributed to more severe inventory management considerations of firms involved in international trade we present empirical evidence for autos as well as at the aggregate level that the adjustment of inventory holdings help explain these fluctuations in trade

global sourcing and credit constraints this paper incorporates credit constraints into a model of global sourcing and heterogeneous firms following antras and helpman 2004 heterogeneous firms decide whether to outsource or integrate input suppliers financing of fixed organizational costs requires borrowing with credit constraints and collateral based on tangible assets the party that controls intermediate inputs is responsible for these financing costs sectors differ in their reliance on external finance and countries vary in their financial development the model predicts that increased financial development decreases the share of integration relative to outsourcing in a country the effect is more pronounced in sectors with a high reliance on external finance however this effect is mitigated by higher productivity tfp and headquarter intensity empirical examination confirms the predictions of the model an improvement in financial development from the 25th to the 75th percentile in industries at the 75th percentile in finance dependence relative to those at the 25th percentile is associated with a 16 8 decrease in the median share of us intra firm imports an increase in tfp from the 25th to the 75th percentile in the tfp triple interactions increase the share of us intra firm imports at the median by 3 2 an increase in headquarter intensity from the 25th to the 75th percentile in the headquarter intensity triple interactions increase the share of us intra firm imports at the median by 21

social knowledge as a control system a proposition and evidence from the japanese fdi behavior building upon the concept of clans this paper introduces the value of social knowledge as a control mechanism available for an mnc to manage its foreign subsidiaries social knowledge is defined as one s ability to understand and predict others general patterns of behavior the hypotheses are empirically tested with japanese fdi data into four host countries the united states singapore taiwan and korea the results offer broad support for the proposition that for mncs with social knowledge the need to resort to ownership for control purposes is reduced

export credit guarantees and export performance an empirical analysis for germany recent literature finds that exporters are particularly vulnerable to financial market frictions as a consequence exports may be lower than their efficient levels for this reason many countries support exporters by underwriting export credit guarantees the empirical evidence on the effects of those policies is however very limited in this paper we use sectoral data on export credit guarantees issued by the german government we investigate whether those guarantees indeed do increase exports and whether they remedy the export restricting effect of credit market imperfections both on the sectoral and on the export market levels exploiting the sectoral structure of a rich three way panel data set of german exports we control for unobserved heterogeneity on the country year sector year and country sector dimensions we document a robust export increasing effect of guarantees there is some evidence that the effect is larger for export markets with poor financial institutions and in sectors that rely more on external finance

relative standing comparisons risk taking and safety regulations abstract we study the question of how relative standing comparisons or status seeking influence risk taking when utility is separable in consumption and status the following results apply with non systematic risks more concern for status leads to more less risk taking when in a sense made precise in the paper the utility function is less more concave in status than in pure consumption with systematic risk risk taking always increases with the concern for status however status seeking always implies socially excessive risk taking thus suggesting a role for public regulation of risky choices

the effects of imf programs in the third world debate and evidence from latin america abstract this article reviews the debate about the effects of imf sponsored stabilization programs in the third world after examining recent studies by fund economists results of a new study on a latin american country set are presented in this research imf programs are associated with insignificant changes in the current account significant improvements in the overall balance of payments increases in inflation mixed effects on growth and a strong and consistent pattern of reduction in labor share of income the latter result is incorporated into a distribution oriented critique of fund policy

seeking guidelines for poverty reduction in rural zambia abstract poverty profiles typically provide policy makers with information about the characteristics of the poor without giving guidance as to the types of programs best suited for reducing poverty a method is described in this paper for extending the typical poverty profile to analyze and quantify the constraints faced by poor smallholders in rural areas the method is applied to rural zambia where poverty is widespread and deep the extension provides timely information for the design of poverty reducing policies

does the us exim bank really promote us exports this paper investigates the impact of us export import bank exim on us exports particularly in the wake of international competition from foreign national export credit agencies ecas we employ a gravity framework on a country industry year level panel data set that matches exim authorisations with us bilateral exports our results depict the general ineffectiveness of the bank in promoting exports within and across industries some heterogeneities behind the general finding are also uncovered industries other than aerospace parts and products are more likely to benefit from exim authorisations and exim authorisations to larger businesses seem to be more effective in encouraging exports furthermore we find no evidence that exim encourages us exports by offsetting foreign eca competition these results are neither affected by competing countries membership to the oecd arrangement nor by the size of american firms that received exim support our results cast doubt on the ubiquitously positive claims made by the bank and its supporters yet also provide policy lessons for countries that are either in the inception stages of establishing their own ecas or are now placing greater importance on eca financing in encouraging exports

a new database on the structure and development of the financial sector this article introduces a new database of indicators of financial structure and financial development across countries and over time the database is unique in that it combines a wide variety of indicators that measure the size activity and efficiency of financial intermediaries and markets it improves on previous efforts by presenting data on the public share of commercial banks introducing indicators of the size and activity of nonbank financial institutions and constructing measures of the size of bond and primary equity markets this article introduces a new database the first to provide comprehensive measures of the development structure and performance of the financial sector this database is the first to define and construct indicators of the size and activity of nonbank financial intermediaries such as insurance companies pension funds and non deposit money banks it is also the first to include indicators of the size of primary equity markets and primary and secondary bond markets in constructing the database authors carefully deflate measures and match stock and flow variables

export market exit and financial health in crises periods abstract this paper uses rich firm level data for the uk to investigate the link between firms financial health and export exit paying attention to the erm currency crisis and the global financial crisis our results show that deterioration in the financial position of firms has increased the hazard of export exit during the 2007 09 crisis but has no significant effect on the early 1990s crisis we also explore the extent to which firms in financially vulnerable industries face greater sensitivity of export exit to financial conditions we conclude that firms in sectors with great reliance on external finance experience higher hazards of exiting the export market during the 2007 09 crisis

concepts of poverty and the poverty line abstract various approaches adopted in developed economies to distinguishing between the poor and non poor to setting a poverty line are reviewed these include the budget standard food ratio official subjective and relative poverty line methods as well as the analysis of indicators of deprivation there has been significant progress in recent years in the degree of sophistication involved and a movement away from approaches with a quasi absolute background however all the methods face formidable problems at conceptual and empirical levels and no single approach is likely to dominate

the challenge of high unemployment it is argued that policymakers macroeconomists and microeconomists should all take high unemployment more seriously the shortcomings of existing theories of unemployment are discussed and a new definition of involuntary unemployment is proposed a model is sketched in which falling aggregate demand leads to keynesian unemployment because labor is heterogeneous and relative wages matter microeconomic theory is criticized for assuming away unemployment and in the process radically changing the answers to some basic questions in trade theory and public finance finally some speculative explanations are offered for the low unemployment now found in states like new jersey and massachusetts this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

did financial frictions stifle r d investment in europe during the great recession abstract we investigate the role of financial frictions in r d spending in a large sample of european firms our identification strategy exploits the contraction in credit supply that followed the 2008 09 global financial crisis and 2012 euro area sovereign debt crisis together with differences in financial frictions across firms and industries to identify a causal effect of financial constraints on investment in innovation we show that firms that are more likely financially constrained in industries more dependent on external finance invest disproportionally less in r d during periods of tight credit supply smaller private firms with weaker balance sheets also have a lower share of r d in total investment suggesting r d drops more than total investment during these crisis episodes these results are robust to different proxies of financial constraints and fixed effects identification strategies

growth is good for whom when how economic growth and poverty reduction in exceptional cases summary economic growth and liberal economic policies often help the poor but what about the numerous cases in which they do not this article analyzes two types of cases those in which income growth of the poor was significantly lower than expectations negative exceptions and those in which income growth of the poor significantly exceeded expectations positive exceptions insights from these cases inform our theoretical understanding of poverty reduction in addition this article contributes a typology of strategies used in these cases including alternative pathways to economic growth and neoliberal prescriptions for poverty reduction

trade finance matters evidence from the covid 19 crisis this study documents a substantial decline in the exports of major trading nations taking place in march 2020 accounting for product specific seasonality and annual trends the data suggest a drop by 38 per cent in france about a quarter in turkey and germany and 12 per cent in the us relative to their historical averages detailed export data from turkey disaggregated by financing terms show another striking pattern flows using bank intermediation which eliminates or reduces the risk of non payment or non arrival of prepaid goods such as letters of credit or documentary collection appear to have been much more resilient to the current downturn relative to flows using other financing terms these findings suggest that access to trade finance is vital during times of heightened uncertainty the author s 2020 published by oxford university press for permissions please e mail journals permissions oup com

financial intermediation international risk sharing and reserve currencies abstract i model the equilibrium risk sharing between countries with varying financial development the most financially developed country takes greater risks because its financial intermediaries deal with funding problems better in good times the more financially developed country consumes more and runs a trade deficit financed by the higher financial income that it earns as compensation for taking greater risk during global crises it suffers heavier losses its currency emerges as the reserve currency because it appreciates during crises thus providing a good hedge i provide evidence that financial net worth plays a crucial role in understanding this asymmetric risk sharing jel e44 f14 f32 g01 g15 g21

the impact of the yuan dollar exchange rate on mexican manufacturing exports to the us a cointegration approach this paper makes use of three econometric methods and three time intervals to evaluate the long term effects of several key variables on mexican manufacturing exports to the us the evidence across econometric techniques and sample periods systematically indicates that i a real depreciation of the yuan dollar exchange rate reduces mexican manufacturing exports by lowering the price of chinese goods in the us market ii a depreciation of the peso dollar real exchange rate generates a strong supply side effect due to the high import content of mexican manufacturing exports which ultimately leads to lower rather than higher sales in the us and iii external demand and labour productivity are positively related to manufacturing exports whereas real wages are negatively related therefore a falling external demand for mexican manufacturing products or a real depreciation of the chinese currency could to some extent be offset by increasing labour productivity faster than wages these findings reflect two fundamental problems of the mexican economy i low investment in high quality formal instruction and proper training programs which gives rise to severe bottleneck points for faster labour productivity growth and ii excessive reliance of the export oriented manufacturing industry on foreign suppliers of intermediate inputs

changes in the returns to education in costa rica abstract i document patterns in the returns to education in costa rica from 1976 to 1992 the most important change during this period was that from the late 1970s to the mid 1980s the return to education fell by about one fourth i construct demand and supply indices within a fixed manpower requirements framework to estimate demand and supply shifts i find a significantly positive relationship between measures of demand for education and a significantly negative relationship between measures of supply for education these findings suggest that calculations based on the returns to education such as the returns to social investments in education must take into account future changes in the returns to education as supply and demand conditions develop

signaling status the impact of relative income on household consumption and financial decisions this paper investigates the importance of status in household consumption and credit decisions using data from the survey of consumer finances linked to tract level data in the american community s

the performance of the labor market during recession and structural adjustment costa rica in the 1980s abstract in this paper we trace the evolution of indicators of labor market performance in costa rica throughout the 1980s and examine the special features of the costa rican labor market that influenced the rapid decline 1980 1982 and rapid recovery 1982 1986 of those indicators we find that among other factors legal minimum wages and a large public sector work force were important in influencing these indicators we conclude that recovery and structural adjustment have been relatively successful in costa rica within a system where the labor market functions in an institutional context rather distant from the free market model

evidence for the effect of monitoring costs on foreign direct investment abstract a proposed reason for the significant inverse relationship between distance both physical and cultural and foreign direct investment is the increased costs for a parent firm to monitor an affiliate when there is greater distance between them we provide the first direct test of this hypothesis using o net data on occupational skills to construct industry level measures of the importance of monitoring related skills we exploit this cross industry variation to examine whether physical and cultural distances have a greater impact on cross border m a in industries where monitoring related skills are more important using data on worldwide cross border m a activity from 2005 through 2014 we find significant evidence for the effect of monitoring costs on cross border m a activity we also show that the relatively low importance of monitoring related costs in manufacturing industries compared to those in other sectors is an important factor in explaining why cross border m a in manufacturing is so large despite its relatively small share in most countries

credit contraction and international trade evidence from chilean exporters summary using data of chilean exporting firms this paper studies the effect of the financial crisis on the extensive and intensive margin of export in the aftermath of the crisis the negative effect of the crisis on exports is highly heterogeneous the evidence shows that larger exporters belonging to industries more dependent on overall credit have suffered disproportionately more during the crisis in terms of export growth but less in terms of entry and exit this has important policy implications as public policy aiming at stimulating trade credit may not be as effective if overarching credit conditions remain subdued

employment and economic growth in costa rica abstract costa rica s economic growth in the last 25 years has had favorable labor market and income distribution consequences overall employment growth kept pace with labor force growth the mix of jobs improved real wages rose and relative inequality and absolute poverty fell but during the economic crisis of 1980 1982 when real per capita income plummeted labor market conditions deteriorated markedly unemployment doubled employment composition worsened and real wages fell by 40 growth labor market conditions and income distribution

perspectives on poverty and income inequality in brazil abstract exploratory analysis of the advance tabulations of the 1980 brazilian demographic census suggests the proportion of the population in poverty fell during the decade 1970 1980 the degree of inequality of the distribution of the income of individuals apparently remained about the same from 1970 to 1980 after rising in the 1960s this near constancy of the overall inequality of income distribution resulted from two offsetting changes a narrowing of the gap between rural and urban incomes and greater inequality within the rural sector

dynamics and factors of inflation convergence in the european union abstract we analyze inflation convergence in the whole european union eu over 1999 2017 we provide comprehensive evidence that the process of inflation convergence among the countries of the eu was not permanently disrupted during the global financial crisis the european sovereign debt crisis or the period of zero lower bound interest rates specifically the convergence process did not noticeably weaken after the crisis and the occurrence of inflation convergence became more widespread compared to the pre crisis years our results are robust with respect to the use of three inflation benchmarks the cross sectional average the inflation target of the european central bank and the maastricht inflation criterion structural breaks and a core inflation measure our main findings imply that further enlargement of the euro area is feasible from the perspective of inflation convergence among eu countries

the international credit channel of u s monetary policy transmission to developing countries evidence from trade data abstract in a large sector level bilateral trade dataset we find robust evidence supporting a broad international credit channel of u s monetary policy transmission to developing countries we show that u s monetary policy has a significant effect on the sectoral composition of developing countries exports financially more vulnerable sectors have a significantly more negative exposure of their trade to a tight u s monetary policy especially in financially less developed exporting countries or during significant u s tightening periods moreover we identify both a monetary policy dependence mechanism and a financial dollarization mechanism through which u s monetary policy can influence the sectoral composition of developing countries exports

foreign direct investment and external financing conditions evidence from normal and crisis times this paper investigates the effects that external financing conditions in source and destination countries have on foreign direct investment fdi in normal and crisis times using a difference in differences approach we find that source and destination countries financial development have a strong positive impact on the relative volume of fdi in financially vulnerable sectors in normal times on the other hand during the 2008 2010 global financial crisis the relative volume of fdi in financially vulnerable sectors fell relatively more in financially developed source and destination countries most notably if these countries experienced a credit crisis

evaluating the joint efficiency of german trade forecasts a nonparametric multivariate approach i analyse the joint efficiency of export and import forecasts by leading economic research institutes for the years 1970 to 2017 for germany in a multivariate setting to this end i compute in a

when is quality of financial system a source of comparative advantage abstract dominant theories of trade tend to ignore the role of finance as a source of comparative advantage on the other hand the finance literature places financial institutions as a driver of economic growth this paper unites these two competing schools of thought in a general equilibrium framework for economies with high quality institutions defined by the competitiveness of the financial sector the quality of corporate governance and the level of property rights protection finance is passive on the other hand for economies with low quality institutions the quality of the financial system is an independent source of comparative advantage interestingly the conventional measure of financial development the size of the financial market relative to gdp does not adequately capture the underlying quality of financial institutions in addition free trade may reduce the aggregate income in south financial capital tends to flow from south to north

do workers prefer increasing wage profiles we present survey data challenging the assumption implicit in analyses of labor supply that all else being equal workers prefer declining over increasing wage profiles we test several explanations for our results including that a there is something special about wages e g their association with productivity as opposed to other types of payments that induces the preference for increasing wages b utility depends not only on absolute levels of consumption but also on changes in consumption over time and c respondents who prefer increasing wage profiles are irrational and would change their behavior if the rationale for preferring declining wages were explained

exchange rate jumps and exports evidence from china we apply the autoregressive conditional jump intensity arji model to monthly exchange rate returns of china against 81 countries and investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports over the period of 1995 2004 we decompose bilateral exchange rate volatility into continuous and discrete components and find that only the discrete part of exchange rate volatility that is the exchange rate jumps has a significantly negative effect on exports which to some extent reconciles the old yet unsettled debate in previous literature on the role of exchange rate volatility in international trade there is also some evidence suggesting that the development of domestic financial market will boost international trade but it does not help attenuate the negative effect of bilateral exchange rate jump risk on exports

trade finance and the great trade collapse pieces of evidence that support the trade finance channel first we show that export prices rose relative to domestic manufacturing prices across a large number of countries second we find that import and export prices of goods shipped by sea which are likely to be affected most by trade finance contractions rose disproportion ately more than those shipped by air or land

on adaptation and the demand for health the purpose of this paper is to analyse the impacts of adaptation to failing health this is done by integrating adaptation processes in a grossman type of pure consumption model model simulations show that adaptation affects the health variables by lowering the incentives to invest in health as well as smoothing the optimal health stock path over the life cycle whether or not the risk of mortality is an object of choice has important effects when studying adaptation as well as for the joint development of the health variables

financing growth through foreign aid and private foreign loans nonlinearities and complementarities abstract are the growth consequences of foreign aid and foreign private loans different for the recipient nations in this study we analyze in a unified way how these two instruments affect economic growth of 131 developing nations over the period 1996 2010 we find that there are diminishing returns to foreign aid while there are increasing returns to foreign loans using these estimated non linearities we find a critical level of international financial transfer where the marginal effect of foreign aid is larger than that of loans if and only if the transfer loans or foreign aid is below this critical level in addition we analyze the interaction between these two types of transfers and find evidence of complementarity disaggregation of aid into grants and concessional loans suggests that it is in fact the former that exhibits concave relationship with growth

getting ahead of the joneses when equality increases conspicuous consumption among bottom tier consumers it is widely believed that increasing the equality of material possessions or income in a social group should lead people at the bottom of the distribution to consume less and save more however this prediction and its causal mechanism have never been studied experimentally five studies show that greater equality increases the satisfaction of those in the lowest tier of the distribution because it reduces the possession gap between what they have and what others have however greater equality also increases the position gains derived from status enhancing consumption since it allows low tier consumers to get ahead of the higher proportion of consumers clustered in the middle tiers as a result greater equality reduces consumption when consumers focus on the narrower possession gap but it increases consumption when they focus on the greater position gains i e when consumption is conspicuous social competition goals are primed and the environment is competitive

timing of kindness evidence from a field experiment abstract we conduct a field experiment in a naturally occurring labor environment and track whether the performance of workers responds to unexpected wage increases specifically we investigate how the timing of wage increases affects efforts we find that workers performance is substantially higher for the same total wage when their wage is increased in two steps as opposed to a single increase at the outset moreover workers are more honest and are more willing to do voluntary extra work after surprising wage increases compared to a baseline condition without increases