on the option to invest in pollution control under a regime of tradable emissions allowances optimal decisions of a firm facing the option of retrofitting its plant to reduce pollution and thereby eliminate the need to purchase emissions allowances are analysed the decision is treated as a real option with the price of pollution permits following a known stochastic process the model is formulated as a set of one dimensional partial differential equations at discrete points in time the firm owner makes optimal decisions about the retrofit including whether to mothball temporarily the model is used to analyse a firm s decision to instal a scrubber as a result of the 1990 u s clean air act jel classification q25 d81 g31 sur la possibilite d investir dans le controle de la pollution dans un regime de permis d emission de pollution echangeables commercialement ce memoire examine les decisions optimales d une entreprise face a la possibilite d adapter ses installations pour reduire la pollution et ce faisant d eliminer le besoin de se procurer des permis d emission de pollution sur le marche le decision est traitee comme une option reelle ou le prix des permis resulte d un processus stochastique connu le modele est formule sous forme d un ensemble d equations differentielles partielles a une dimension a des points discontinus dans le temps le proprietaire de l entreprise prend des decisions optimales de mise a niveau des installations y compris la possibilite de les fermer temporairement le modele est utilise pour analyser une decision d installer un epurateur suite a la mise en place de la loi americaine de 1990 clean air act

applied general equilibrium models of taxation and international trade an introduction and survey we wish to acknowledge the help of three referees and of john pencavel on several earlier drafts as well as the assistance of the modelers whose work is referred to in the paper they corrected our lack of understanding of their work and provided many other helpful comments excellent research and bibliographical assistance have been provided by debbie fretz radwan shaban and janet stotsky helpful comments have been made by charles ballard michael boskin lans bovenberg sylvester damus harvey galper glenn harrison gordon lenjosek jack mutti serena ng t n srinivasan charles stuart and eric toder the authors also acknowledgefinancial support from the national bureau of economic research the national science foundation international business machines and the social sciences and humanities research council ottawa canada

did migration in the 1980s narrow the north south divide this paper integrates empirical analysis of the decision to migrate from a region with that of destination choice thus we are able to study how net migration and not just gross outflows are influenced by regional labour market circumstances the results suggest that relative regional wages rates but not relative unemployment and vacancy rates are effective in reallocating labour from regions experiencing adverse demand shocks we find little evidence that manual labour is migrating from those regions with relatively high manual unemployment but that migration plays a more conventional role in the regional adjustment process for non manual workers

efficient selection of insured currency positions protective puts vs fiduciary calls we examine the empirical results from implementation of portfolio insurance strategies employing currency spot and futures options hypotheses are generated from ogden and tucker s 1988 generalizations concerning the relative values of american spot currency options and currency futures options we find that protective puts using futures options are generally dominated by both protective puts that use options on spot currencies and by fiduciary calls on futures contracts this suggests that the prices of puts on foreign currency futures contracts are too high relative to foreign currency futures calls and to puts on spot currencies

macroeconomic imbalances a multiregional general equilibrium analysis this article analyzes regional and sectoral consequences of recent federal budget and trade deficits a multiregional computable general equilibrium mcge model is developed in which regions differ in technology factor endowments tax rates government expenditure patterns and trade relationships an application to virginia and the rest of the united states indicates that traditional sectors agriculture forestry basic wood products mining textiles and apparel bear a greater burden of adjustment to macroeconomic imbalances than do other sectors the analysis demonstrates that seemingly aspatial national policies may shift the geographic distribution of national output and income

migration regional equilibrium and the estimation of compensating differentials in this study we have developed an improved model of net migration that encompasses both equilibrium and disequilibrium components instrumental variables fixed effects estimates of the model with time series data for 51 areas in the united states over the period 1971 1988 support the importance of both equilibrium and disequilibrium factors in migration excerpt

hedging foreign exchange exposures independent vs integrative approaches many financial managers think that foreign exchange hedging decisions are mainly a choice between to hedge or not to hedge nevertheless previous researchers applied ederington s portfolio approach and found that even for risk minimization a complete hedge does not lead to the lowest risk instead there exists an optimal hedging ratio which yields the lowest variance however the discussions of these former studies were concentrated on a single foreign currency cash flow in the real world financial managers are more likely to expect multiple cash flows arriving at different times even for the same foreign currency this paper therefore discusses whether financial managers should hedge these cash flows independently or combine them under one integrative hedging scheme it is shown that while the independent approach does not lead to the lowest risk its hedging effectiveness is close to that of the integrative approach given the time and resource constraints of financial managers the simpler independent approach appears to be a better choice

energy investment risk assessment for nations along china s belt road initiative abstract overseas energy investment as an effective way of securing energy supply is being favored by the world s leading energy consuming countries however energy investment has the potential high risk on multiple forms including political and regulatory risk currency liquidity and refinancing risk as well as resource risk and so on to effectively evaluate overseas energy investment risk this study proposed a new indicator system from six dimensions furthermore a fuzzy integrated evaluation model based on the entropy weight was constructed to rate the energy investment risk for 50 nations along china s belt road initiative the findings indicate that resource potential and chinese factors have become the main determinant of energy investment risk while environmental constraints and political risk should also be considered for investing decisions in conclusion saudi arabia united arab emirates pakistan kazakhstan and russia are the most ideal choices for china s energy investment balancing resource potential and investment environment

manual wage differentials collective bargaining and multi locational firms an analysis using northern ireland nes data harris r 1994 manual wage differentials collective bargaining and multilocational firms an analysis using northern ireland nes data reg studies 28 483 493 a number of studies have appeared in the literature which consider the impact on the wage distribution of for example gender and ethnic differences of union membership or coverage by collective agreements of firm size of belonging to the private vis a vis public sector of being self employed as opposed to an employee another potentially important determinant of wages is whether the firm employing an individual is locally owned or whether it is part of a multiregional or multinational organization which operates branches in various locations this paper sets out to investigate the size of this locational wage differential across all sectors for a region of the uk using a bivariate sample selectivity model where the choice of firm type i e locally owned or externally owned and union coverage are endogenous the results confirm that

hedging foreign exchange risk using forward foreign exchange markets an extension this study investigates minimum risk hedging ratios and the hedging effectiveness of forward foreign exchange markets for the british pound and the german mark during the period january 4 1982 april 30 1984 these currencies are selected because of their importance in foreign exchange markets and their use as international currencies evidence is strong that the presence of autocorrelation not only overstates optimal hedge ratios but also overstates hedging effectiveness for these two currencies the lower optimal hedging ratios found in this study than in earlier works is thus largely attributed to the adjustment for autocorrelation

a regional general equilibrium model of the united states tax effects on factor movements and regional production a six region general equilibrium model of the united states is used to assess the potential long run effects of state local and federal tax policies on output and the allocation of factors across regions and sectors the nonuniform structure of state local taxes and their interaction with federal taxes means that regional output is affected quite differently than would be projected solely on the basis of changing average regional tax burdens the study provides a useful indication of conceptual and empirical issues that must be considered in further regional modeling efforts issues which do not arise in closed economy national models copyright 1989 by mit press

risk futures pricing and the organization of production in commodity markets this paper examines equilibrium in a spot and futures market with both primary producers growers and intermediate producers processors for a commodity that is subject to output shocks processors tend to hedge long in contrast with hick s theory of futures hedging nevertheless if transaction costs are low the two stage production process brings about a downward futures price bias consistent with hick s pricing prediction but if costs of trading futures are high growers tend to be differentially driven from the futures market reversing the direction of the bias futures trading may also affect the organization of industry when demand is inelastic futures trading can serve as a substitute for vertical integration as a means of diversifying risk because the risk positions of growers are complementary with those of processors

undermining the principle of concentration european union regional policy and the socio economic disadvantage of european regions crescenzi r undermining the principle of concentration european union regional policy and the socio economic disadvantage of european regions regional studies this paper sets out to analyse the regional policy of the european union by assessing whether the actual distribution of funds to the regions undermines the principle of territorial concentration the empirical analysis shows that due to either political equilibriums or inaccurate assumptions about the most cost effective allocation of the funds the sources of structural disadvantage are more spatially concentrated than the funds devoted to compensating this disadvantage and reveals a weak association between socio economic disadvantage and european union funding corrections in allocation mechanisms are recommended in order to increase fund concentration and earmark resources more adequately to disadvantaged regions crescenzi r saper le principe de la concentration la politique regionale de l union europeenne et le desavantage socio econom

the clean development mechanism stochastic permit prices and energy investments abstract we analyze the impact on energy investments stemming from different emission permit classes by considering permits that are allocated inside the european emission trading scheme and secondary certified emission reduction scer permits originating from the clean development mechanism one price taking firm which is subject to emission regulation has the choice to invest in gas or wind power plant the firm faces uncertainty regarding stochastically evolving permit prices while it receives a premium on the electricity price for wind energy as a first step we determine the value of the option to invest into a gas power plant over time then we calculate the investment probability of a gas power investment in a range of policy scenarios we find that allowing the usage of scer permits in the present policy framework has a positive impact on gas power investment decoupling the price processes has a similar effect if the quota of scer permits is doubled the decrease in the investment probability for wind power is large we carry out sensitivity tests for different parameter values and find that investment behavior changes significantly with differing interest rates the wind energy premium and volatility

the hedging of an uncertain future foreign currency cash flow this paper derives the optimal hedge of an uncertain unknown quantity future foreign currency cash flow this more general optimal hedge includes the traditional hedge for a certain known quantity future foreign currency cash flow as a special case the optimal hedge is found to be unbounded and determined by firm specific conditions including the variance of the expected cash flow and the correlation of that future cash flow with actual exchange rate movements simulated optimal hedge values are found for u s based multinational firms possessing s dm cash flows using exchange rate data for the 1981 1987 period special cases in which the optimal hedge ratio equals zero and one also are identified and we show that cash flow uncertainty can strongly affect the effectiveness of hedging

optimal hedging of uncertain and long term foreign exchange exposure abstract this paper employs stochastic dynamic programming to analyze two hedging problems which arise frequently especially in international finance one is the hedging of an uncertain exposure when the arrival of new information is anticipated it is shown that a risk averse agent will hedge a fraction of his maximum potential exposure to reduce risk the second problem concerns hedging an exposure which extends beyond the delivery date of the available forward contract the solution yields a rule by which successive contracts can be linked to form an optimal hedging strategy a short empirical study illustrates this rule

wind farm investment risks under uncertain cdm benefit in china abstract china has set an ambitious target to increase its wind power capacity by 35 gw from 2007 to 2020 the country s hunger for clean power provides great opportunities for wind energy investors however risks from china s uncertain electricity market regulation and an uncertain energy policy framework mainly due to uncertain clean development mechanism cdm benefits prevent foreign investors from investing in china s wind energy the objectives of this paper are to 1 quantify wind energy investment risk premiums in an uncertain international energy policy context and 2 evaluate the impact of uncertain cdm benefits on the net present values of wind power projects with four scenarios this study simulates possible prices of certified emissions reductions cers from wind power projects project net present values npvs have been calculated the project risk premiums are drawn from different and uncertain cer prices our key findings show that uncertain cdm benefits will significantly affect the project npvs this paper concludes that the chinese government needs revising its tariff incentives most likely by introducing fixed feed in tariffs fits and re examining its cdm granting policy and its wind project tax rates to facilitate wind power development and enable china to achieve its wind energy target

multiperiod production with forward and option markets production and hedging in both forward and options markets are analyzed for forward looking firms that maximize expected utility in the presence of unbiased forward and options prices it is shown that such firms will use options as hedging instruments this result contrasts with the conclusions from studies that assume myopic behavior and occurs because forward looking agents care about the effect of future output prices on profits from future production cycles simulations support the theoretical results and show how the introduction of an options market influences the optimal forward position

linking with uncertainty the relationship between eu ets pollution permits and kyoto offsets carbon offsets from the kyoto flexible mechanisms can be used by firms in the eu emissions trading scheme for compliance in lieu of eu allowances making these carbon assets interchangeable we offer an explanation of the price spread using a structural model of the price for certified emissions reductions that combines three features a limit for the use of kyoto offsets within the eu ets a disconnect between the current price of offsets and their marginal cost of production for institutional reasons and uncertainty about future supply and demand of offsets our model expresses the offset price as an average of the eu allowance price and an offset s outside value weighted by the probability of a binding import limit using a monthly series of the united nation s clean development mechanism and joint implementation about offset supply and demand we provide empirical support for our theory of offset price formation counterfactual simulations suggest that the price process is dominated by uncertainty

regional effects of taxes in canada an applied general equilibrium approach this paper reports on an applied general equilibrium regional model for canada which is used to investigate the regional effects of taxes earlier literature on regional tax effects is reviewed and the main features of the model are briefly described existing literature on regional tax effects is largely non quantitative and does not discuss several important regional features of taxes such as taxes which are predominantly on products or industries located in particular regions results suggest that regional effects of taxes can be significant and in the canadian case at least do not tend to counterbalance one another in general richer regions tend to lose and poorer regions gain from federal taxes but other regional characteristics such as manufacturing non manufacturing or resource non resource can be important this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

currency risk and relative price risk this paper demonstrates the strong linkages that exist between currency risk represented by inflation risk and exchange rate changes and relative price risk these linkages affect the optional quantities of forward exchange contracts nominal debt and fixed price sales purchase contracts to use in hedging against these risks it is shown that the existence of as many hedging mechanisms as there are forms of price risk allows for the precise targeting of specific price risks with specific hedging instruments moreover even though each hedging mechanism specializes in protecting against a particular form of price risk the optimal quantitiy of each influences and is influenced by the optimal quantities of the others

can the future eu ets support wind energy investments abstract this article discusses how the future emissions trading scheme legislation should be designed to allow the european union to comply with the 20 co 2 emissions reduction target while at the same time promoting wind energy investments we examine whether co 2 prices could eventually replace the existing support schemes for wind and if they adequately capture its benefits the analysis also looks at the effectiveness of the clean development and joint implementation mechanisms to trigger wind projects and technology transfer in developing countries we find out that climate policy is unlikely to provide sufficient incentives to promote wind power and that other policies should be used to internalise the societal benefits that accrue from deploying this technology co 2 prices can only reflect the beneficial impact of wind on climate change but not its contribution to the security of supply or employment creation a minimum price of around 40 tco 2 should be attained to maintain present support levels for wind and this excludes income risks and intermediation costs finally cdm improves the return rate of wind energy projects in third countries but it is the local institutional framework and the long term stability of the co 2 markets that matters the most

structural funds and the evaluation of community economic development initiatives in the uk a critical perspective armstrong h and wells p 2006 structural funds and the evaluation of community economic development initiatives in the uk a critical perspective regional studies 40 259 272 since their inception within uk structural funds programmes in the 1990s community economic development ced initiatives have experienced a rapid expansion evaluation methods have struggled to adapt to what was a radically new type of policy this paper charts the rise of ced in the uk s objective 1 and 2 programmes and it examines the main problems posed by ced for structural funds monitoring and evaluation whilst progress in adapting the monitoring and evaluation methods to ced has been good a number of key challenges remain to be faced by the eventual ex post evaluations of the 2000 06 programmes and for the 2007 13 programming period the key challenges are identified and possible ways forward are discussed community economic development structural funds evaluation uk programmes armstrong h et wells p 2006 les

the simultaneous determination of spot and futures prices in a simple model with production risk this paper deals with properties of a rational expectations equilibrium when there is futures trading a simple two good model is analyzed where one of the goods is produced subject to production risk although the futures market provides insurance against price risk to producers it is income risk that concerns them whether they hedge in equilibrium is shown to depend on the price and income elasticity of demand for their output as well as on the degree to which consumers the other party in the futures transaction are risk averse

eua and scer phase ii price drivers unveiling the reasons for the existence of the eua scer spread abstract this article studies the price relationships between eu emissions allowances euas valid under the eu emissions trading scheme eu ets and secondary certified emissions reductions scers established from primary cers generated through the kyoto protocol s clean development mechanism cdm given the price differences between euas and scers financial and industrial operators may benefit from arbitrage strategies by buying scers and selling euas i e selling the eua scer spread to cover their compliance position as industrial operators are allowed to use scers towards compliance with their emissions cap within the european system up to 13 4 our central results show that the spread is mainly driven by eua prices and market microstructure variables and less importantly as we would expect by emissions related fundamental drivers this might be justified by the fact that the eu ets remains the greatest source of cer demand to date

risk management of energy system for identifying optimal power mix with financial cost minimization and environmental impact mitigation under uncertainty abstract an interval stochastic risk management isrm method is launched to control the variability of the recourse cost as well as to capture the notion of risk in stochastic programming the isrm method can examine various policy scenarios that are associated with economic penalties under uncertainties presented as probability distributions and interval values an isrm model is then formulated to identify the optimal power mix for the beijing s energy system tradeoffs between risk and cost are evaluated indicating any change in targeted cost and risk level would yield different expected costs results reveal that the inherent uncertainty of system components and risk attitude of decision makers have significant effects on the city s energy supply and electricity generation schemes as well as system cost and probabilistic penalty results also disclose that import electricity as a recourse action to compensate the local shortage would be enforced the import electricity would increase with a reduced risk level under every risk level more electricity would be imported with an increased demand the findings can facilitate the local authority in identifying desired strategies for the city s energy planning and management in association with financial cost minimization and environmental impact mitigation

modelling the price spread between eua and cer carbon prices abstract this paper identifies factors impacting on the dynamics of the price spread between european allowances euas and certified emission reductions cers by detecting changes in the structural relationship between them while prior studies have assumed a fixed structural relationship this paper analyses the dynamic evolution of the price spread by employing a time varying parameter analysis using daily data from march 2008 to september 2011 the analysis reveals that a lack of competitive conditions in markets access constraints on the use and the availability of cers regulatory changes regarding both euas and cers and uncertainty surrounding cers can explain a significant portion of the price spread

evaluating the power investment options with uncertainty in climate policy abstract this paper uses a real options approach roa for analysing the effects of government climate policy uncertainty on private investors decision making in the power sector it presents an analysis undertaken by the international energy agency iea that implements roa within a dynamic programming approach for technology investment choice case studies for gas coal and nuclear power investment are undertaken with the model illustrative results from the model indicate four broad conclusions i climate change policy risks can become large if there is only a short time between a future climate policy event such as post 2012 and the time when the investment decision is being made ii the way in which co 2 and fuel price variations feed through to electricity price variations is an important determinant of the overall investment risk that companies will face iii investment risks vary according to the technology being considered with nuclear power appearing to be particularly exposed to fuel and co 2 price risks under various assumptions and iv the government will be able to reduce investors risks by implementing long term say 10 years rather than short term say 5 years climate change policy frameworks contributions of this study include 1 having created a step function with stochastic volume of jump at a particular time to simulate carbon price shock under a particular climate policy event 2 quantifying the implicit risk premium of carbon price uncertainty to investors in new capacity 3 evaluating carbon price risk alongside energy price risk in investment decision making and 4 demonstrating roa to be a useful tool to quantify the impacts of climate change policy uncertainty on power investment

devolving fiscal policy migration and tax yields abstractdevolution of taxes to sub national jurisdictions could reduce expected tax revenue if some households move to lower tax regimes constraining devolved government policy this paper develop

integration of the global carbon markets abstract this paper analyzes the market architecture and common factors of emission reduction instruments in europe and north america spot and futures prices across exchanges in europe are cointegrated but the futures curve beyond the calendar year evolves independently despite narrower spreads political uncertainties about the clean development mechanism have kept eua and cer prices from converging rggi allowances share a common trend with eua and the european markets adjust to the u s price trend a 0 10 shock to rggi prices leads to a one month 0 64 cumulative increase in eua prices the introduction of cap and trade legislation in the u s has broken a cointegrating relationship in voluntary prices voluntary instruments that are convertible into mandatory allowances imply less than a 20 probability of price convergence between the u s and europe by 2013

the displacement and multiplier effects of regional selective assistance a computable general equilibrium analysis this paper uses a hybrid approach to simulate the effects of regional selective assistance rsa for scotland this combines industrial survey estimation of the direct impacts and computable general equilibrium cge modelling of the system wide effects the results are compared to those derived using the method currently adopted in official evaluation studies of rsa and other regional regeneration policy instruments the cge approach captures capacity labour market displacement and migration effects ignored in existing studies simulation identifies the conditions under which these effects are likely to be quantitatively important a partir d une facon hybride cet article cherche a simuler pour l ecosse l impact des primes regionales une estimation des effets directs a partir d une enquete aupres de l industrie se voit allier a la modelisation des effets generalises par une analyse d equilibre general sur ordinateur on compare les resultats a ceux qui proviennent des methodes employees actuellement

an econometric model of merseyside validation and policy simulations minford p stoney p riley j and webb b 1994 an econometric model of merseyside validation and policy simulations reg studies 28 563 576 the paper estimates an econometric model of merseyside on annual data the model is derived from a heckscher ohlin framework for the traded sector set beside a non traded sector and facing a positively sloped supply curve of manual labour whose reservation wage is set by unemployment benefits with all other factor prices being set exogenously to the region through elastic supply the supply of manual labour responding to traded sector wages set by world market conditions determines the size of the region s output the model s fit over the past is acceptable though data is limited its simulation properties contrasting with those of previous demand driven models imply high returns to policies that reduce local costs such as taxes union mark ups and transport charges minford p stoney p riley j et webb b 1994 un modele econometrique de merseyside

forward and futures prices evidence from the foreign exchange markets empirical studies of the treasury bill markets have revealed substantial differences between the futures price and the implied forward price these differences have been attributed to taxes transaction costs and the settling up procedure employed in the futures market this paper examines the forward and futures prices in foreign exchange in an attempt to distinguish between the competing explanations empirical studies of the treasury bill market have revealed differences between the futures price or rate and the implicit forward price derived from the term structure of interest rates 1 these differences have generally been attributed to market imperfections such as taxes and transaction costs see for example arak 1 capozza and cornell 2 and rendelman and carabini 6 recently however cox ingersoll and ross 3 henceforth cir derived a model in which forward and futures prices need not be equal even in perfect markets without taxes as long as interest rates are stochastic the significance of the cir effect may be hard to investigate using only data from the bill market because of the potentially complicating effects of taxes and transaction costs unique to this market by using data from the foreign exchange market we are able to eliminate the tax effect and reduce the impact of transaction costs the question we address is whether the discrepancies observed in the treasury bill market are also observed in the foreign exchange market if they are then we have evidence that the differences are due to a combination of the cir effect and the transaction costs common to both markets if they are not then either the magnitude of the cir effect is much less in the foreign exchange market or the treasury bill results are due to the unique tax treatment and transaction costs of that market this paper is organized as follows in section i the trading mechanics of the forward and futures markets in foreign exchange are discussed section ii reviews the explanations for the discrepancies between the forward and futures prices for treasury bills the institutional differences between the foreign exchange and bill markets are also summarized to show which of these explanations cannot apply to the foreign exchange market in section iii the data are decribed and the empirical results are presented the conclusions are summarized in the final section

emissions trading and investment decisions in the power sector a case study in finland abstract organizations which consider investment in or divestment of power production licences capacity within the european community are exposed to the impacts of the european union emission allowance trading scheme eu ets in this paper the consequences of the eu ets on investment decisions are explored in a country specific setting in finland first we review the general mechanisms through which the eu ets influences size timing and cashflows of an investment next we discuss the projected changes in finnish power producers investment environment and examine the financial impacts due to the eu ets on a case investment decision a hypothetical condensing power plant 250 mwe the standard discounted cash flow dcf analysis is extended to take into account the value of two real options the option to wait and the option to alter operating scale in a quantitative investment appraisal the impact of emissions trading not only depends on the expected level of allowance prices but also on their volatility and correlation with electricity and fuel prices the case study shows that the uncertainty regarding the allocation of emission allowances is critical in a quantitative investment appraisal of fossil fuel fired power plants

the dynamics of u s internal migration in this paper we have theoretically derived a net migration equation and estimated it using time series data for 51 u s regions over the period 1971 1988 the results indicate that the dynamic response of net migration is stable and is significantly related to stock equilibrium changes induced by amenity differentials relative employment opportunities relative real wages and industry composition excerpt

management of foreign exchange risk a review article this paper reviews the literature on foreign exchange risk management ferm which has burgeoned during the last decade scholars and practioners emerging interest in foreign exchange risk management was spurred by the advent of fluctuating exchange rates in the early seventies as well as by the pronouncement of the infamous fasb statement no 8 in 1976 which laid down unambiguous guidelines for consolidating financial statements of multinational corporations a normative rather than a market view of foreign exchange risk management is taken and accordingly the author reviews first the two key informational inputs necessary for any foreign exchange risk management program forecasting exchange rates and measuring exposure to exchange risk available decision models for handling transaction and translation exposures are reviewed next a concluding section identifies gaps in the existing literature and suggests directions for future research

impact of climate policy uncertainty on the adoption of electricity generating technologies this paper presents a real options model where multiple options are evaluated simultaneously so that the effect of the individual options on each other is accounted for we apply this model to the electricity sector where we analyze three typical technologies based on fossil fuel fossil fuel with carbon capture and renewable energy respectively in this way we can analyze the transition from co2 intensive to co2 neutral electricity production in the face of rising and uncertain co2 prices in addition such a modelling approach enables us to estimate precisely the expected value of perfect information i e the willingness of investors and producers to pay for information about the correct co2 price path as can be expected the expected value of information rises with increasing co2 price uncertainty in addition the larger the price uncertainty the larger are the cumulative co2 emissions over the coming century the reason for this is that the transition to less co2 intensive technologies is increasingly postponed with rising co2 price uncertainty by testing different price processes geometric brownian motion versus jump processes with different jump frequencies we can also make useful recommendations concerning the importance of policy predictability we find that it is better to have climate change policies that are stable over a certain length of time and change abruptly than less abrupt but more frequently changing policies less frequent fluctuations reduce the expected value of information and result in smaller cumulative co2 emissions