regime switches in exchange rate volatility and uncovered interest parity abstract we use a regime switching model to examine how exchange rate volatility is related to the failure of uncovered interest parity main findings are as follows first exchange rate returns are strongly influenced by regime switches in the relationship between the returns and interest rate differentials second low yielding currencies appreciate less frequently but once it occurs their movements are faster than when they depreciate third depreciation of low yielding currencies and low volatility are mutually dependent on each other finally these three findings are more evident for shorter horizons the second and third results are consistent with a market participants view short term carry trades in a low volatility environment and their rapid unwinding substantially influence exchange rates we consider the effects of funding liquidity to explain these results

optimal forecasts from markov switching models we derive forecasts for markov switching models that are optimal in the mean square forecast error msfe sense by means of weighting observations we provide analytic expressions of the weights conditional on the markov states and conditional on state probabilities this allows us to study the effect of uncertainty around states on forecasts it emerges that even in large samples forecasting performance increases substantially when the construction of optimal weights takes uncertainty around states into account performance of the optimal weights is shown through simulations and an application to u s gnp where using optimal weights leads to significant reductions in msfe supplementary materials for this article are available online

deadweight loss in oligopoly a new approach ever since harberger s 18 pioneering article researchers have attempted to estimate the welfare loss resulting from the exercise of market power despite nearly four decades of work in this area however surprisingly few researchers disagree with harberger s finding that deadweight loss is quite small while many dispute his claim that deadweight loss in manufacturing amounts to only about 0 1 of gnp few estimates exceed more than 1 3 of the value of output some of the higher estimates moreover include losses of a broader nature than the purely allocative losses on which harberger focuses in this paper i use a generalization of a recent model of oligopoly to estimate the magnitude of deadweight loss in the u s manufacturing sector while the exact magnitude of the losses depends on several parameters the estimates indicate that deadweight loss may be considerably higher than earlier work suggests ranging from roughly 6 10 of the value of shipments if demand is inelastic to over 20 if demand is elastic

can the markov switching model forecast exchange rates abstract a markov swirching model is fit for 18 exchange rates at quarterly frequencies the model fits well in sample for many exchange rates by the mean squared error criterion the markov model does not generate superior forecasts to a random walk or the forward rate there appears to ne some evidence that the forecasts of the markov model are superior at predicting the direction of change of the exchange rate

monetary fundamentals and exchange rate dynamics under different nominal regimes we investigate the dynamic relationship between the us dollar exchange rate and its fundamentals across different exchange rate regimes using data going back to the late 1800s or early 1900s for six industrialized countries for these countries there is evidence of a long run relation between the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals consistent with conventional theories of exchange rate determination we employ a markov switching vector equilibrium correction model that allows for regime shifts in the entire set of parameters and the variance covariance matrix our results suggest that the relative importance of exchange rates and fundamentals in restoring the long run equilibrium level implied by the exchange rate monetary fundamentals model varies significantly over time and is affected by the nominal exchange rate regime in operation

fundamentals and exchange rate prediction revisited this paper measures latent fundamental exchange rates with independent component based rates constructed from a cross section of exchange rates and then uses their deviations from exchange rates to forecast empirical results indicate that the independent component based model and its taylor rule and purchasing power parity augmented models are superior to the random walk in predicting exchange rates these results are robust to several scenarios and are likely to be observed if the us sources and the recursive scheme are applied our results reveal that information regarding the third moment of exchange rate changes is helpful to explain exchange rate movements

on the short term predictability of exchange rates a bvar time varying parameters approach abstract in this paper we propose a bayesian vector autoregressive model with time varying parameters bvar tvp to examine the short term predictability of exchange rates an important contribution of the paper is the application of the bvar tvp model for the first time to daily data using information from financial markets another contribution is the production of forecasts in real time at the very short horizon of one trading day ahead typically used by traders and investors in financial markets we employ financial criteria and recently developed statistical tests to assess the exchange rate predictability we find that the bvar tvp model outperforms the random walk for all exchange rates these forecast gains are due primarily to the time variation of coefficients and secondly to information from other financial markets it is shown that international investors could have made statistically significant excess profits if they had followed an inter day trading strategy based on the buy sell signals generated by the model s one day ahead exchange rate forecasts even after allowing for transaction costs and risk factors

exchange rate predictability the main goal of this article is to provide an answer to the question does anything forecast exchange rates and if so which variables it is well known that exchange rate fluctuations are very difficult to predict using economic models and that a random walk forecasts exchange rates better than any economic model the meese and rogoff puzzle however the recent literature has identified a series of fundamentals methodologies that claim to have resolved the puzzle this article provides a critical review of the recent literature on exchange rate forecasting and illustrates the new methodologies and fundamentals that have been recently proposed in an up to date thorough empirical analysis overall our analysis of the literature and the data suggests that the answer to the question are exchange rates predictable is it depends on the choice of predictor forecast horizon sample period model and forecast evaluation method predictability is most apparent when one or more of the following hold the predictors are taylor rule or net foreign assets the model is linear and a small number of parameters are estimated the toughest benchmark is the random walk without drift

can markov switching models predict excess foreign exchange returns abstract this paper merges the literature on technical trading rules with the literature on markov switching to develop economically useful trading rules the markov models out of sample excess returns modestly exceed those of standard technical rules and are profitable over the most recent subsample a portfolio of markov and standard technical rules outperforms either set individually on a risk adjusted basis the markov rules high excess returns contrast with mixed performance on statistical tests of forecast accuracy there is no clear source for the trends but permitting the mean to depend on higher moments of the exchange rate distribution modestly increases returns

error correction modelling and dynamic specifications as a conduit to outperforming the random walk in exchange rate forecasting the proposition that dynamic exchange rate models can outperform the random walk in out of sample forecasting in the sense that they produce lower mean square errors is examined and disputed by using several dynamic versions of three macroeconomic exchange rate models it is demonstrated that dynamic specifications outperform the corresponding static models but improvement in the forecasting power may not be sufficient for the dynamic models to perform better than the random walk the results are explained by suggesting that any dynamic specification or transformation of the static model leads to the introduction of a lagged dependent variable which in effect is a random walk component the analysis leads to the conclusion that it is implausible to aim at beating the random walk by augmenting a static model with a random walk component

regime switching models for the mexican peso abstract the mexican peso has shown long periods of tranquility that suddenly give rise to short volatile periods we characterize this exchange rate process by estimating a series of regime switching regressions and comparing the different specifications as pioneered by meese and rogoff j int econ 14 1983 3 we find evidence for two clearly identified regimes one with an appreciating trend and low volatility and another with large depreciations and high volatility we use the estimated model to explain the bias implied in the peso forward market finally we show that duration dependence or fundamentally driven transition probabilities do not improve the model s forecasting power

on the sustainability of common property resources abstract we provide a model where a common property resource is managed by two types of agents cooperators and non cooperators who adjust their extraction strategies in response to persistent differential payoffs in our model the social approval of cooperators works as a reward mechanism which as we show favors both the pervasiveness of cooperative behavior and the sustainable management of natural resources specifically we show that in the presence of such a reward mechanism a stable equilibrium can be reached with both strategies being practiced simultaneously and a decentralized and sustainable management of common property resources is possible

real exchange rates and switching regimes abstract we suggest that the real exchange rate between the major currencies in the post bretton woods period can be described by a stationary 2 state markov switching ar 1 model based on the forecast performance we find that this model outperforms two competing models where the real exchange rate is nonstationary we also find that the existence of different regimes as in the markov switching model is consistent with the common finding of unit roots in real exchange rates

long swings in exchange rates are they really in the data several authors have reported evidence of long swings in u s dollar exchange rates by rejecting the random walk in favor of a markov regime switching model we show that this evidence is not robust to an extension of the sample period one should however not conclude that long swings are thus absent because the tests may have insufficient power a possible reason for this is the low data frequency because existing tests are based on quarterly data and we find that the power can be increased substantially by raising the data frequency indeed weekly data reject the random walk so we conclude that long swings are in the data this conclusion is supported by significant superiority of regime switching over random walk out of sample forecasts of the direction of change

banking on currency forecasts how predictable is change in money abstract the paper examines the predictive performance of four structural exchange rate models using both parametric and nonparametric techniques error correction versions of the models are fit so that plausible long run elasticities can be imposed on the fundamental variables of each model a variety of model evaluation statistics are reported our findings confirm that fundamental exchange rate models forecast no better than a random walk model for short term prediction horizons for longer horizons error correction terms can explain exchange rate movements significantly better than a no change forecast for a subset of the models and currencies we consider

revisiting the interest rate exchange rate nexus a markov switching approach abstract in this paper the interest rate exchange rate nexus and the effectiveness of an interest rate defense are investigated empirically i present a reduced form evidence which characterizes the empirical relationship between interest rates and exchange rates i use a markov switching specification of the nominal exchange rate with time varying transition probabilities empirical evidence from six developing countries indonesia south korea the philippines thailand mexico and turkey indicates that raising nominal interest rates leads to a higher probability of switching to a crisis regime thus the empirical results presented here may support the view that a high interest rate policy is unable to defend the exchange rate unlike other studies which consider linear models only my findings are robust and consistent over different countries and crisis episodes asian 1997 crises mexico 1994 crisis and turkey 1994 2001 crises in order to explain the empirical findings i construct a simple theoretical model by incorporating an interest rate rule in the model proposed by jeanne and rose 2002 jeanne o rose a k 2002 noise trading and exchange rate regimes quarterly journal of economics 117 2 537 569 the model has multiple equilibria and under plausible conditions higher exchange rate volatility is associated with higher interest rates

central bank intervention exchange rate regime and the purchasing power parity motivated by the argument that central bank intervention leads to non linear exchange rate adjustment processes we examine purchase power parity ppp by applying quantile unit root tests to the exchange rates of the new taiwan dollar ntd vis a vis seven asian currencies we show that exchange rate regime matters in determining whether ppp holds while ppp holds overwhelmingly during the period when the ntd is under the fixed exchange rate regime it is present only for some exchange rates during the managed floating rate regime for exchange rates exhibiting mean reversion the reversion occurs mainly when the shocks are large in contrast to conclusion in the literature our test results show little evidence of asymmetric mean reversion between positive and negative shocks

a cardan s discriminant approach to predicting currency crashes abstract this paper models large swings in exchange rates by introducing nonlinearity via the generalized normal gen distribution lye j n martin v l 1993 robust estimation nonnormalities and generalized exponential distributions journal of the american statistical association 88 261 267 as the distribution allows for bimodality a switch between modes may give rise to currency crashes a statistic known as cardan s discriminant based on the shape parameters of the gen is used to detect bimodality the cardan s discriminant is found to reliably predict currency crashes for eight emerging countries and generate relatively low false signals for stable currencies

a re examination of the exchange rate interest differential relationship evidence from germany and japan abstract this paper presents empirical evidence which links the exchange rate interest differential relation over the recent floating rate period using johansen s cointegration test we find a long run relationship between real exchange rates and expected real interest differentials in addition empirical evidence is provided to show that our error correction framework leads to real exchange rate forecasts that are superior to those generated by a random walk forecasting model moreover this superiority in out of sample predictability is supported statistically by the test of diebold and mariano

regime shifts and the canada us exchange rate in a multivariate framework this study re evaluates the monetary approach for the canada u s exchange rate and shows that its basic structure can be verified although the coefficients are not consistently in line with theory our findings also indicate that exchange rate adjustment is subject to regime shifts