debt futures and options optimal price linked financial contracts under moral hazard and limited liability this paper characterizes the optimal financial contract between a risk neutral entrepreneur and risk neutral lender investors when the entrepreneur has limited liability there is moral hazard and the investor payoff function can depend on both output and output price but is nondecreasing in output in this setting the optimal contract is a price contingent commodity bond that can be replicated by combining pure debt commodity futures and commodity call option contracts although a pure commodity bond contract is sometimes optimal a pure debt contract is almost never optimal various properties of the entrepreneur s optimal price contingent promised payment are described copyright 1993 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

reserve requirements and output fluctuations abstract when trade is uncertain and sequential a fractional reserve banking system may give rise to endogenous monetary shocks these endogenous monetary shocks lead to fluctuations in capacity utilization and waste when fluctuations in the currency deposit ratio are the important source of the monetary shocks a high reserve requirement on checkable accounts can minimize this waste when fluctuations in the fraction of credit card transactions are important then low reserve requirements will minimize waste

income insurance with uncertain output this paper examines the properties of a market solution to the output uncertainty problem faced by unincorporated primary producers an insurance contract is formulated and shown to provide income insurance to producers without exposing insurers to moral hazard the equilibrium relative to this contract is shown to be equivalent to that effected by a stock market available to all producers copyright 1989 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

resale price maintenance in an oligopoly with uncertain demand abstract this paper considers a model where oligopolistic manufacturers sell to consumers through competitive retailers who face demand uncertainty the setup is a symmetric duopoly with product differentiation and a perfectly competitive retail market in the game with unconstrained price competition there is price dispersion in the retail market in the game with resale price maintenance rpm manufacturers profits are higher retail inventories are at least as high and total surplus is at least as high the effect of rpm on consumer surplus is ambiguous rpm also precludes possible coordination failure between the manufacturers

the emergence and persistence of the anglo saxon and german financial systems we use a moral hazard model to compare monitored nontraded bank loans and traded nonmonitored bonds as sources of external funds for industry we contrast the theoretical conditions that favor each system with the historical conditions prevailing when these financial systems evolved during the british and german industrial revolutions to study persistence we consider an entry model where financiers take the industrial structure as given when they lend and firms take the financial system as given when they borrow we show multiple equilibria can exist compare equilibria in welfare terms and discuss their robustness to coordination between lenders and borrowers copyright 2004 oxford university press

does economic structure determine financial structure abstract in this paper we examine the relationship between the structure of the real economy and a country s financial system we consider whether the development of the real economic structure can predict the direction of evolution of a country s financial structure using data for 108 countries we find a significant relationship between real economic structure and financial structure next we exploit shocks to the economies in india finland and sweden and south korea and show that changes in the economic structure of a country influence the evolution of its financial system this suggests that financial institutions and capital markets change in response to the structure of industries

inventories rational expectations and the business cycle abstract the simplest macroeconomic models in which markets clear instantaneously and expectations are rational preclude the existence of business cycles that is of serially correlated deviations of output from trend this paper studies one of several mechanisms that can be used to make these so called new classical models produce business cycles the mechanism is the gradual adjustment of inventory stocks two macroeconomic models of inventory holdings are formulated both imply first that current output should be a decreasing function of the stock of inventories and second that inventories once perturbed from equilibrium levels should adjust only gradually these two features are then embedded into an otherwise standard macroeconomic model in which markets clear instantaneously and expectations are rational two principal conclusions are reached first disturbances such as unanticipated changes in money will set in motion serially correlated deviations of output from trend second if desired inventories are sensitive to the real interest rate then even fully anticipated changes in money can affect real variables

productivity market power and capacity utilization when spot markets are complete our test of price taking behavior looks at the choice of capacity rather than the choice of output it is motivated by a complete spot markets model in which goods are distinguished by the selling probabilities in addition to other characteristics when output is explained by total man hours and a capacity utilization proxy the coefficient of the first variable is the elasticity of capacity with respect to fixed labor under competition and risk neutrality this coefficient is equal to an average labor share we use this observation to interpret abbot griliches hausman s regressions and to argue that once the capacity utilization proxy is included in the regression hall s data at the manufacturing level fail to reject the joint hypothesis of competition and risk neutrality it is also argued that the coefficient of total man hours does not tell us anything about monopoly power once the capacity utilization proxy is omitted from the regression this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

separating between unobserved consumer types evidence from airlines we propose an alternative approach to identify unobserved consumer types and assess whether firms price discriminate unlike other screening schemes that rely on quantity discounts or product differentiation in our finite mixture structure individuals have unit demands and the product is homogeneous we implement the model using an original u s airlines data set the results support the existence of two demand types the high type business traveler is less price sensitive has a higher valuation and pays a higher price than the low type tourist the proportion of high types also increases as the departure date nears jel c23 l93 r41

s s inventory policies in general equilibrium we study the aggregate implications of s s inventory policies in a dynamic general equilibrium model with aggregate uncertainty firms in the model s retail sector face idiosyncratic demand risk and s s inventory policies are optimal because of fixed order costs the distribution of inventory holdings affects the aggregate outcome in two ways variation in the decision to order and variation in the rate of sale through the pricing decisions of retailers we find that both mechanisms must operate to reconcile observations that orders are more volatile than and inventory investment is positively correlated with sales while remaining consistent with other salient business cycle characteristics the model exhibits strong amplification for some shocks and persistence to a limited extent

using yield management to shift demand when the peak time is unknown traditional peak load and stochastic peak load models assume firms have prior information about when peak demand occurs however price dispersion such as is typically used by firms practicing yield management can achieve some of the same efficient demand shifting even when the peak time is unknown equilibrium price dispersion arises because of stochastic demand and price rigidities but a previously unexplored benefit of price dispersion is its ability to reduce equilibrium capacity costs through demand shifting the model also suggests how yield management now more commonly called revenue management might actually benefit business travellers contrary to the popular prejudice

toward a theory of competitive price adjustment in his 1959 essay toward a theory of price adjustment arrow argued that there exists a logical gap in the usual formulations of the theory of perfectly competitive economy namely that there is no place for a rational decision with respect to prices as there is with respect to quantities see also koopmans 1957 this gap is especially felt in macroeconomics where the basic framework is that of perfect competition and many results depend on the existence of some lag in the adjustment of prices here i propose a first step toward a theory of price adjustment in a competitive environment i shall consider here a simple exchange economy with no money the application to the question of the real effects of changes in the money supply is discussed in a separate paper eden 1980 the main cost of adjustment considered here is the cost of information about changes in aggregate excess demand the question is who will gather and pay for the information this public good problem is analysed in a model in which the artificial entity of the auctioneer is replaced by firms sellers who seek information about excess demand and announce the prices of their products the public good aspect of the problem emerges when there is a unique optimal price which would be announced on the basis of old information shared by all participants then if a single firm buys new information and announces a different price all firms which are aware of this revised price will rightly think that it is based on updated information and will therefore follow the lead in this case the announced price transmits all the relevant new information to all firms and the firm that updates the information therefore provides that public good which in the walrasian model is provided by the auctioneer 2 the question is which firm will undertake the function of the auctioneer the solution suggested here is that all firms will adopt a mixed strategy in which they undertake this function with a certain probability it is shown however that there is always a positive probability that the prices advertised in a particular market will not be based on updated information since otherwise there would be no incentive to buy information in the second section i describe the process of advertising prices for the case in which the aggregate demand that sellers in a particular market face is exogenously given and infinitely elastic i then discuss the type of framework required to justify such demand curves and show that in general the walrasian price is not the average of advertised prices

why do financial systems differ history matters abstract we describe a dynamic model of financial intermediation in which fundamental characteristics of the economy imply a unique equilibrium path of bank and financial market lending yet we also show that economies whose fundamental characteristics have converged may continue to have very different financial structures because setting up financial markets is costly in our model economies that emphasize bank lending are more likely to continue doing so in the future all else equal

crop insurance in a political economy an alternative perspective on agricultural policy lawmakers often subsidize farmers in times of financial distress this article models this political impulse as a constraint on government farm policy describing how ex ante government farm insurance can deter ex post disaster relief and improve production incentives by countering the moral hazard that otherwise prevails absent ex ante government policy ex post relief takes the form of revenue insurance which prompts excessive entry into farm production and under production by operating farmers ex ante government policy can raise economic and political welfare by buying out low productivity farmers and offering profitable farmers a combination of revenue insurance price supports and a program participation fee copyright 2003 oxford university press

a theory of clearance sales clearance sales are widely used by firms as an intertemporal selling policy in particular in markets where firms face demand uncertainty and need to choose capacity in advance clearance sales consist in charging a high price initially but then lowering the price in the sales period high valuation consumers purchase the good at the high initial price so as to avoid rationing at the low price while low valuation consumers wait for the price to drop we develop a simple model of intertemporal monopoly pricing under demand uncertainty and show that clearance sales may be the optimal intertemporal selling policy

delegated monitors large and small germany s banking system 1800 1914 banks play a greater role in the german financial system than in those of the united states or britain germany s large universal banks are admired by those who advocate bank deregulation in the united states others admire the universal banks for their supposed role in corporate governance and industrial finance many discussions distort the german banking system by overstressing one of several types of banks and ignore the competition and cooperation between the famous universal banks and other banking groups tracing the historical development of the german banking system from the early nineteenth century places the large universal banks in context

rational expectations and the smoothing properties of inventories of finished goods abstract this paper formulates and estimates a dynamic rational expectations equilibrium model of inventories of finished goods and employment of labor the view that the primary role of inventories of finished goods is to act as a buffer stock in the face of fluctuating demand is examined both the model and estimation results indicate that this is the case because of differences in the costs involved for firms in changing their inventory stocks and labor force in addition to providing some new evidence on the behavior of inventories of finished goods and employment the paper illustrates a technology for maximum likelihood estimation of structural parameters under the hypothesis of rational expectations

the relation between price and marginal cost in u s industry an examination of data on output and labor input reveals that some u s industries have marginal cost well below price the conclusion rests on the finding that cyclical variations in labor input are small compared with variations in output in booms firms produce substantially more output and sell it for a price that exceeds the costs of the added inputs the paper documents the disparity between price and marginal cost where marginal cost is estimated from annual variations in cost it considers a variety of explanations of the findings that are consistent with competition but none is found to be completely plausible

the cyclical behavior of marginal cost and price the author examines the cyclical behavior of price marginal cost margins for u s manufac turing after 1956 short run marginal cost is markedly procyclical this is primarily due to procyclical overtime payments incurred beca use employment is not perfectly flexible in most industries output price fails to respond to the cyclical movement in marginal cost so price marginal cost margins are markedly countercyclical the res ults contradict business cycle theories that explain low production i n a recession by a high real cost of producing they support theories that explain low production in a recession by the inability of firms to sell their output copyright 1987 by american economic association

systematic peak load pricing congestion premia and demand diverting empirical evidence abstract this paper finds empirical support to systematic peak load pricing in airlines higher fares in ex ante known congested periods it estimates a congestion premia and supports the main empirical prediction in gale and holmes gale i holmes t 1993 advance purchase discounts and monopoly allocation of capacity american economic review 83 135 146 less discount seats on peak flights

credit and efficiency in centralized and decentralized economies we study a credit model where because of adverse selection unprofitable projects may nevertheless be financed indeed they may continue to be financed even when shown to be low quality if sunk costs have already been incurred we show that credit decentralization offers a way for creditors to commit not to refinance such projects thereby discouraging entrepreneurs from undertaking them initially thus decentralization provides financial discipline nevertheless we argue that it puts too high a premium on short term returns the model seems pertinent to two issues soft budget constraint problems in centralized economies and differences between anglo saxon and german japanese financing practices

asymmetric capacity constraints and equilibrium price dispersion abstract price dispersion arises despite perfect information about prices in equilibrium the higher capacity firm adopts a high price high availability strategy the lower capacity firm adopts a low price low availability strategy and consumers are more likely to shop at the high price firm

inventories in a competitive environment trade is sequential buyers arrive in batches and each batch completes trade before the next arrives producers allocate the available supply among all potential batches of buyers inventories accumulate whenever a batch does not arrive shocks to cost and demand are serially independent there is a stationary relationship between inventories and prices with the following properties larger beginning of period inventories tend to depress prices inventories are positively serially correlated a unit increase in inventories reduces output by less than one unit an increase in inventories leads to an increase in the price spread output tends to vary more than sales

the adjustment of prices to monetary shocks when trade is uncertain and sequential trade is both uncertain and sequential money surprises are not neutral because prices at the beginning of the trading process cannot depend on its end in contrast with fixed price models in this paper sellers can change prices during trade in contrast with lucas s article here there is no asymmetry in the information about the money supply the price quoted by individual sellers may adjust slowly to changes in the targeted money supply but the distribution of quoted prices adjusts perfectly to these changes and the real price distribution is independent of the anticipated rate of change in the money supply

marginal cost pricing when spot markets are complete the standard formulation of a spot market subject to uncertain excess demand uses a tatonnement process that restricts trade until the market clearing price is found here i present a model in which there is no restriction on trade during the process of the resolution of uncertainty about aggregate excess demand the idea is to enlarge the commodity space and define goods by the probability that they will sell in addition to other characteristics the probability of sale characteristic is the spot market analogue of the contingencies under which delivery will take place in the arrow debreu model a failure to distinguish goods by the probability of sale characteristic can lead to the rejection of the competitive paradigm even when everyone is a price taker and the allocation is efficient

equilibrium price dispersion under demand uncertainty the roles of costly capacity and market structure when capacity is costly and prices are set in advance firms facing uncertain demand will sell output at multiple prices and limit the quantity available at each price i show that the optimal price strategy of a monopolist and the unique pure strategy nash equilibria of oligopolists both exhibit intrafirm price dispersion moreover as the market becomes more competitive prices become more dispersed a pattern documented in the airline industry while generating similar predictions the model differs from the revenue management literature because it disregards market segmentation and fare restrictions that screen customers

trading frictions and house price dynamics we model liquidity in housing markets the model provides a simple characterization for the joint process of prices sales and inventory we compare the implications of the model to certain properties of housing markets the model can generate the large price changes and the positive correlation between prices and sales that we see in the data unlike the data prices are negatively autocorrelated and high inventory predicts price appreciation we investigate several amendments to the model informational frictions show promise

monopoly price dispersion under demand uncertainty when a monopolist sets its price before its demand is known then it may set more than one price and limit the availability of its output at lower prices this article adds demand uncertainty and price rigidities to the standard model of monopoly pricing when there are two states of demand and the ex post monopoly price is greater when demand is high then the monopolist s optimal ex ante pricing strategy is to set two prices and limit purchases at the lower price

inflation and relative price variability abstract the unconditional variance of the rate of nominal price change can always be expressed as a function of the unconditional mean therefore the relationship between the unconditional variance and the unconditional mean cannot be used to distinguish among alternative theories

equity bonds and bank debt capital structure and financial market equilibrium under asymmetric information this paper proposes a model of financial markets and corporate finance with asymmetric information and no taxes where equity issues bank debt and bond financing coexist in equilibrium the relationship banking aspect of financial intermediation is emphasized firms turn to banks as a source of investment mainly because banks are good at helping them through times of financial distress this financial flexibility is costly since banks face costs of capital themselves which they attempt to minimize through securitization to avoid this intermediation cost firms may turn to bond or equity financing but bonds imply an inefficient liquidation cost and equity an informational dilution cost we show that in equilib rium the riskier firms prefer bank loans the safer ones tap the bond markets and the ones in between prefer to issue both equity and bonds this segmentation is broadly consistent with stylized facts

inefficient trade patterns excessive trade cross hauling and dumping abstract i study an example of a competitive environment in which trade occurs in a sequential manner in this example a country with a stable demand may suffer from trade with a country with unstable demand there may be too much trade a country may import and export the same good in the same period cross hauling and dumping may occur the timing of delivery is important when delivery occurs before trade delivery to stocks trade improves welfare there is dumping but no cross hauling when delivery occurs after trade delivery to order trade may reduce welfare and cross hauling may occur

price dispersion and demand uncertainty evidence from u s scanner data i use the prescott 1975 hotels model to explain variations in price dispersion across items sold by supermarkets in chicago the effect of demand uncertainty on price dispersion is highly significant and quantitatively important my estimates suggest that more than 40 of the cross sectional standard deviation of log prices is due to demand uncertainty i also find that price dispersion measures are negatively correlated with the average price but are not negatively correlated with the revenues from selling the good across stores and weeks and with the number of stores that sell the good temporary sales are modeled as a reaction to unwanted inventories that are accumulated when the realization of demand is low the effect of demand uncertainty on the frequency of temporary sales is also highly significant and quantitatively important items with more demand uncertainty tend to accumulate unwanted inventories more often and tend to have temporary sales more often

agricultural insurance and soil depletion in a simple dynamic model we study the effects of agricultural insurance on farm production choices soil depletion and the environment when there are two related risks one in short to medium run production revenues and the other in land value the analysis considers pure and truncating insurance programs that stabilize linear combinations of short run revenue risk and land price risk production revenue stabilizing insurance is often found to elicit increased farmer output thus exacerbating environmental externalities and causing further soil depletion land value stabilizing insurance typically elicits lower output thus mitigating environmental externalities and pushing farmers closer to their complete insurance output levels

information and competitive advantage the rise of general motors during the mid 1920s alfred p sloan instituted a number of innovations designed to provide the operating divisions at general motors with more accurate and more timely information regarding final consumer demand these innovations have not received much attention in attempts to explain general motors remarkable rise to dominance of the u s domestic automobile industry the present article reviews these events and provides statistical tests affirming the success of these innovations at the same time as general motors increases in profitability and market share

revenue management without commitment dynamic pricing and periodic flash sales a seller has a fixed number of goods to sell by a deadline at each time he posts a regular price and decides whether to hold a flash sale over time buyers privately enter the market and strategically time their purchases if a buyer does not purchase when she arrives she can pay an attention cost to recheck the regular price afterwards or she can wait for future flash sales where she may obtain a good at a discounted price in the unique markov perfect equilibrium the seller sporadically holds flash sales to lower the stock of goods a flash sale increases the willingness to pay of future buyers but decreases the willingness to pay of buyers who arrive early in the game when it is very likely that a buyer will obtain a good in a flash sale the seller holds a big initial flash sale for all but one unit of the good

sequential markets and the suboptimality of the friedman rule a cash in advance model with sequential markets is constructed where unanticipated monetary injections are nonneutral and can potentially produce large liquidity effects however if the monetary authority adheres to an optimal money rule money should not respond to unanticipated shocks so that a friedman rule is suboptimal and the monetary authority does not exploit the liquidity effect quantitatively the model can generate variability in money and nominal interest rates close to what is observed and can produce data with no obvious evidence of the existence of liquidity effects

inventories and risk in african manufacturing using a panel data set for zimbabwe which includes firm specific measures of contractual risk we show that contractual risk has a major effect on the holding input stocks and to a lesser extent the constitution of cash reserves this is consistent with inventories being a hedge against stockout risk by contrast firms facing more inter annual market risk hold less inventories this suggests that african manufacturers prefer adapting to long term market fluctuations as they materialise rather than building up inventories this interpretation is consistent with the finding that high market risk firms also have a low capacity utilisation rate

money and inventories in an economy with uncertain and sequential trade abstract we propose a model in which an unanticipated reduction in the money supply leads to a contemporaneous increase in inventories followed by periods with lower output this persistent real effect does not require price rigidities or real shocks and confusion it is obtained in a model of uncertain and sequential trade in which markets are cleared and agents are price takers

financial development and economic growth views and agenda this critique argues that the preponderance of theoretical reasoning and empirical evidence suggests a positive first order relationship between financial development and economic growth the body of work would push even most skeptics toward the belief that the development of financial markets and institutions is a critical and inextricable part of the growth process and away from the view that the financial system is an inconsequential sideshow responding passively to economic growth many gaps remain however and the paper highlights areas in acute need of additional research