brain drain remittances and fertility this paper analyzes the effects of skilled migration and remittances on fertility decisions at origin we develop an overlapping generations model which accounts for endogenous fertility and education parents choose the number of children they want to raise and decide upon how many children obtain higher education only high skilled individuals migrate with a certain probability and remit to their parents we find that an increase in the probability to emigrate leads both high and low skilled parents to send more children to obtain higher education however the effect on the number of children is ambiguous in a further analysis we calibrate the model to match different characteristics of a developing economy when the destination country relaxes the immigration restrictions more high skilled individuals leave the origin country the result is that at origin increased high skilled emigration reduces fertility and fosters human capital accumulation

international remittances and human capital formation summary this article investigates the effect of international migration on children left behind in peru the theoretical model is based on human capital theory and educational investment decision linked to remittances the model analyzes the role of international remittances on the investment decision between sending children to a public school or to a private school using data for the period 2007 10 this study addressed the problem of a left censored endogenous variable for panel data by using a two step estimation and found that international remittances have a positive effect on the likelihood to send children to private schools controlling for absenteeism of parents

rules and discretion with noncoordinated monetary and fiscal policies the time inconsistency of optimal monetary policy is due to the effects of tax distortions thus the issue of how to improve upon the time consistent suboptimal monetary policy is related to that of the coordination of monetary and fiscal policy we present a model with three players the central bark the fiscal authority and wage setters in which distortionary taxes are explicitly modelled we show that binding commitments to monetary rules are not necessarily welfare improving if monetary and fiscal policy are not coordinated we also examine the effects of different degrees of independence of the central bank

corruption a review as is increasingly recognised in academic literature and by international organisations corruption acts as a major deterrent to growth and development the aim of this survey is to organise and summarise existing theoretical and empirical work on corruption with a view to identifying opportunities for further research the paper begins with a brief overview of key definitions of corruption and then turns to a review of the factors that favour or deter the growth of corruption together with a brief look at related models this is followed by an examination of the consequences of corruption for society and the consideration of measures that might help to reduce corruption the paper ends with suggestions for future research and includes summaries of data sources and key variables for use in this research

a brain gain with a brain drain abstract we study human capital depletion and formation in an economy open to out migration as opposed to an economy which is closed under the assumption of asymmetric information the enlarged opportunities and the associated different structure of incentives can give rise to a brain gain in conjunction with a brain drain migration by high skill members of its workforce notwithstanding the home country can end up with a higher average level of human capital per worker

income taxation and international mobility today millions of people work in countries where they are not citizens income taxation and international mobility addresses the novel theoretical and practical problems that this growing phenomenon of international personal mobility creates for the design of a country s tax system and takes up questions that have grown largely out of the extensive debate over jagdish bhagwati s proposal in the early 1970s to tax the brain drain the contributors who include many of the leading theorists of international economics and public finance look at how the difficult question of how horizontal equity is to be defined between nationals at home and abroad or between nationals abroad and foreign citizens abroad and tackle such questions as should a country exercise income tax jurisdiction over its citizens abroad if so in what way is it practical to do so the issues that these questions raise are complex lying on the interface of politics sociology and economics income taxation and international mobility breaks significant new ground by analyzing these questions and building on the modern theory of optimal income taxation to examine the consequences of the possibility of outmigration on the appropriate exercise and design of income tax jurisdiction on those who live outside their native country theoretical analyses are presented in six chapters by the editors and by james mirrlees william baumol and koichi hamada the well known tax law expert richard pomp examines the philippines experience in taxing citizens abroad the editors provide a substantial introduction that synthesizes the book s major analytical approaches and conclusions and richard musgrave provides an insightful view of the issues in his foreword

imperfect competition information heterogeneity and financial contagion this study examines how heterogeneity of private information may induce financial contagion using a model of multi asset trading in which the three main channels of contagion through financial linkages in the literature correlated information correlated liquidity and portfolio rebalancing are ruled out by construction i show that financial contagion can still be an equilibrium outcome when speculators receive heterogeneous fundamental information risk neutral speculators trade strategically across many assets to mask their information advantage about one asset asymmetric sharing of information among them prevents rational market makers from learning about their individual signals and trades with sufficient accuracy incorrect cross inference about terminal payoffs and contagion ensue when used to analyze the transmission of shocks across countries my model suggests that the process of generation and disclosure of information in emerging markets may explain their vulnerability to financial contagion jel d82 g14 g15

central bank independence and public debt policy the various proposals for the institutional design of the european monetary union have drawn fresh attention to the link between monetary and public debt policies this paper explores the strategic interaction between fiscal authorities setting public debt and the central bank controlling monetary policy in the absence of political distortions an optimally designed conservative independent central bank is sufficient to establish the second best in the presence of political distortions or with coordination of monetary and fiscal policy however also a debt target is needed

return and dynamics the path of labor migration when workers differ in their skills and information is asymmetric an implementation of the theory of labor migration under asymmetric information shows that return migration arises from the reinstatement of informational symmetry which induces low skill workers who are no longer pooled with high skill workers to return when workers in an occupation constitute more than two skill levels say four without loss of generality the following patterns emerge migration is sequential that is it proceeds in waves each wave breaks into workers who return and workers who stay within waves the returning migrants are the low skill workers the average skill level of migrants is rising in the order of their wave excerpt

rent seeking activities and the brain gain effects of migration this paper studies migration and rent seeking activities in a framework of heterogeneous ability it is shown that despite the depletion of productive resources known as the brain drain the possibility of migration could sufficiently reduce participation in rent seeking activities and increase participation in productive activities such that the net effect of migration is a brain gain moreover the possibility of migration that sufficiently enlarges the relative reward to ability in the productive sector could result in qualitative improvements in the allocation of talent ce memoire etudie la migration et les activites de chasse aux rentes dans un monde ou les habiletes sont heterogenes on montre que malgre la perte de ressources productives que constitue la perte de cerveaux il se peut que la migration puisse suffisamment reduire la participation aux activites de chasse aux rentes et accroitre la participation aux activites productives pour que l effet net de la migration soit un gain de cerveaux de plus il se peut que la migration augmente suffisamment la recompense des habiletes dans le secteur productif qu il puisse en resulter des ameliorations qualitatives dans l allocation des talents

price formation and liquidity in the u s treasury market the response to public information the arrival of public information in the u s treasury market sets off a two stage adjustment process for prices trading volume and bid ask spreads in a brief first stage the release of a major macroeconomic announcement induces a sharp and nearly instantaneous price change with a reduction in trading volume demonstrating that price reactions to public information do not require trading the spread widens dramatically at announcement evidently driven by inventory control concerns in a prolonged second stage trading volume surges price volatility persists and spreads remain moderately wide as investors trade to reconcile residual differences in their private views how do financial markets form prices and provide liquidity when information arrives efforts to address this issue have led to an extensive microstructure literature on equity markets and to a lesser extent on the foreign exchange fx market relatively little work has focused on the u s treasury market however in spite of its importance in its own right and the advantages it offers as an alternative testing ground for microstructure hypotheses

macroeconomic fundamentals price discovery and volatility dynamics in emerging bond markets abstract this study characterizes volatility dynamics in external emerging bond markets and examines how prices and volatility respond to macroeconomic news as in mature bond markets surprises about macroeconomic conditions in emerging markets are found to affect both conditional returns and volatility of external bonds with the effects on volatility being more pronounced and longer lasting than those on prices yet the process of information absorption tends to be more drawn out than in mature bond markets global and regional macroeconomic news is at least as important as local news for both price and volatility dynamics

who wants an independent central bank monetary policy making and politics the costs and benefits of cooperative monetary and fiscal policy are analysed in the framework of a partisan business cycles model it is shown that political parties with different ideologies prefer to choose different arrangements for macroeconomic policy making more specifically right wing parties favour independent central banks more than left wing parties an independent central bank is also the generally preferred option from a social welfare point of view in addition the form of policy making arrangements between the fiscal and monetary authorities is shown to influence the extent of partisan cycles

revisiting the trade migration nexus evidence from new oecd data international migrants contribute to bilateral trade creation if their presence reduces information costs or entails additional demand for goods from their source countries using new data on stocks of foreign born individuals by skill class we try to separately quantify those two channels we assume that improved information affects host countries imports and exports symmetrically while the preference channel matters for imports only on average for differentiated goods both channels contribute evenly toward the total trade creating effect of migration in line with expectations the relative importance of the trade cost channel is largest for homogeneous goods and for high skilled migrants

human capital depletion human capital formation and migration a blessing or a curse abstract we specify conditions under which a strictly positive probability of employment in a foreign country raises the level of human capital formed by optimizing workers in the home country while some workers migrate taking along more human capital than if they had migrated without factoring in the possibility of migration a form of brain drain other workers stay at home with more human capital than they would have formed in the absence of the possibility of migration a form of brain gain

fiscal decentralization central bank independence and inflation abstract we develop earlier cross sectional studies of inflation rates by adding the degree of tax centralization as another explanatory variable this makes central bank independence perform appreciably better as an explanatory variable also we find that centralized countries have higher inflation

political influence on the central bank international evidence political influence on the central bank is measured bere by looking at the probability that a central bank governor will be replaced shortly after a political change of government the governor changes about half the time witbin six months of a nonconstitutional or other radical change of government a military coup or a restoration of democracy the governor is much less likely to change within six months following a routine change in the head of government about one fourth of the time in developing countries and one tenth in industrial countries these indicators vary across countries and correlate statistically with inflation and its variability and with real growth and real interest rates differences in the vulnerability of the central bank to political instability in political instability itself and in central bank turnover in nonpolitical periods seem to be a major part of the explanation for why developing countries have on average higher and more variable inflation than industrial countries do

stock market reaction to fed funds rate surprises state dependence and the financial crisis this paper examines the response of us stock returns to federal funds rate ffr surprises between 1989 and 2012 focusing on the impact of the recent financial crisis we find that outside the crisis period stock prices increased as a response to unexpected ffr cuts state dependence is identified with stocks exhibiting larger increases when interest rate easing coincided with recessions bear markets and tightening credit conditions however an important structural shift occurred during the crisis changing the stocks response to ffr shocks and the nature of state dependence throughout the crisis period stocks did not react positively to unexpected ffr cuts which were interpreted as signals of worsening future economic conditions this triggered a rebalancing of investment portfolios away from falling equities and towards safe haven assets our results highlight the severity of the crisis and the ineffectiveness of conventional monetary policy close to the zero lower bound

stock prices and economic news this paper examines the daily response of stock prices to announcements about the money supply inflation real economic activity and the discountrate except for the discount rate survey data on market participants expectations of these announcements are used to identify the unexpected component of the announcements in order to test the efficient markets hypothesis that only the unexpected part of any announcement the surprise moves stock prices the empirical results support this hypothesis and indicate further that surprises related to monetary policy significantly affect stock prices there is only limited evidence of an impact from inflation surprises and no evidence of an impact from real activity surprises on the announcement days there is also only weak evidence of stock price responses to surprises beyond the announcement day this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

pre announcement effects news effects and volatility monetary policy and the stock market abstract i examine pre announcement and news effects on the stock market in the context of public disclosure of monetary policy decisions the results suggest that the stock market tends to be relatively quiet conditional volatility is abnormally low on days preceding regularly scheduled policy announcements although this calming effect is routinely reported in anecdotal press accounts it is statistically significant only over the past four to five years a result that i attribute to changes in the federal reserve s disclosure practices in early 1994 the paper also looks at how the actual interest rate decisions of policy makers affect stock market volatility the element of surprise in such decisions tends to boost stock market volatility significantly in the short run and positive surprises higher than expected values of the target federal funds rate tend to have a larger effect on volatility than negative surprises the implications of the results for broader issues in the finance and economics literatures are also discussed

losses and gains to developing countries from the migration of educated workers this paper synthesizes and extends recent research on the new economics of the brain drain in a unified framework the paper shows that while recently identified adverse repercussions of the brain drain exacerbate the long recognized negative impact of the brain drain longer term consequences turn the brain drain into the harbinger of powerful gains these gains have been studied already in recent research or merit attention in future research

brain drain informality and inequality a search and matching model for sub saharan africa abstract this paper revisits the effect of brain drain on development and inequality using a two sector model with formal and informal labor markets contrary to existing studies we use a search and matching setting that allows to endogenize the employment structure and the wage differentials between different skill groups in the same sector and between workers with identical skills employed in different sectors theoretically the brain drain induces ambiguous welfare effects for those left behind as the potential loss gain depends on the parameters of the model we thus parameterize our model on 33 sub saharan african countries and produce comparative results for each of them we find that skilled emigration induces heterogeneous welfare losses for the low skilled population the size of these losses varies between 0 2 and 8 and is influenced by the parameters of the production and education technologies the results are fairly robust to identifying assumptions to the inclusion of technological externalities and to the endogenization of training decisions

macroeconomic news announcements and stock market jump intensity dynamics abstract this paper examines the effect of macroeconomic releases on stock market volatility through a poisson gaussian garch process with time varying jump intensity which is allowed to respond to such information the day of the announcement per se is found to have little impact on jump intensities employment releases are an exception however when macroeconomic surprises are considered inflation shocks show persistent effects while monetary policy and employment shocks reveal only short lived effects also the jump intensity responds asymmetrically to macroeconomic shocks evidence on macroeconomic variables relevance in explaining jump dynamics and improving volatility forecasts on event days is provided

brain drain taxes for non benevolent governments abstract this paper investigates the welfare effects of brain drain taxes levied by non benevolent governments whereby a country collects a tax from skilled emigrants but potentially wastes a sizable portion of the revenue using a model in which taxes are chosen to maximize expected political rents i show that the availability of a brain drain tax increases a weighted sum of citizen utilities however the government s optimal brain drain tax is found to be higher than the level that maximizes this weighted sum in another model a brain drain tax is found to be desirable when governments use public good expenditures to compete for mobile residents

the effect of central bank independence on inflation in developing countries abstract ismihan and ozkan ismihan m ozkan f g 2004 does central bank independence lower inflation economics letters 84 305 309 provide theoretical support for prior studies empirical findings of positive or no significant relationship between central bank independence cbi and average inflation performance the present paper argues that these findings are spurious because the studies use an econometric methodology that does not account for the measurement error in their proxies for cbi this paper employs an econometric methodology that does account for this measurement error and finds a strong negative relationship between cbi and inflation even though the sample is limited to developing countries

brain drain in globalization a general equilibrium analysis from the sending countries perspective according to the economic literature high skilled emigration may either harm or bene t developing economies recent research highlighted several positive and negative channels through which the brain drain operates this paper aims at evaluating the relative magnitudes of various brain drain channels and quantifying their global impact on migrants sending countries for this purpose we develop a 10 region general equilibrium model of the world economy characterized by overlapping generations dynamics our ndings suggest that the short run impact of brain drain on resident human capital is extremely crucial as it affects not only the number of high skilled workers available to domestic production but also the sending economy s capacity to innovate adopt modern technologies this latter effect is particularly important in globalization where capital investments are made in places with high production ef ciencies hence despite positive feedback effects those countries facing prevalent high skilled emigration are the most candid victims to brain drain

impact of interest rate surprises on islamic and conventional stocks and bonds abstract this paper studies the impact of interest rate news surprises on islamic and conventional stock and bond indices using a dataset which covers interest rate announcements and forecasts as well as stock and bond indices in three islamic and eight non islamic countris we find that interest rate surprises tend to have a smaller impact on the returns and volatility of islamic than conventional bonds because islamic bonds are structured to avoid explicit interest rates however interest rate surprises have about the same or bigger impact on the returns and volatility of islamic relative to conventional stocks despite the low amounts of cash and debt holdings of firms comprising islamic stock indices

debt inflation and central bank independence abstract increasing the independence of a central bank from political influence although ex ante socially beneficial and initially successful in reducing inflation would ultimately fail to lower inflation permanently the smaller anticipated policy distortions implemented by a more independent central bank would induce the fiscal authority to decrease current distortions by increasing the deficit over time inflation would increase to accommodate a higher public debt by contrast imposing a strict inflation target would lower inflation permanently and insulate the primary deficit from political distortions

central bank independence and macroeconomic performance some comparative evidence this note uses information on a sample of sixteen oecd countries to assess the relationship between central bank independence and macroeconomic performance as previous work suggests politically controlled central banks are more likely to pursue policies that lead to high and variable inflation however the authors find little evidence that political control of central bank policy has any impact on measures of the level or variability of growth unemployment or the ex ante real interest rate copyright 1993 by ohio state university press

market response to the weekly money supply announcements in the 1970s the hypothesis that the weekly announcement of the money supply affects interest rates is examined the announcement effect is interpreted as a policy anticipation effect that is an unanticipated increase in the money supply leads to an increase in interest rates in anticipation of future tightening by the federal reserve estimates of this effect with proxies for the unanticipated change constructed from a survey of money supply forecasts and an arima model indicate that a financial markets respond very quickly to the announcement and b the response was largest when policymakers emphasized the importance of the monetary aggregates financial market participants are careful observers of the weekly money supply announcement and generally agree that the announcement often leads to changes in interest rates this occurs because the announcement leads market participants to revise their expectations both of future federal reserve policy actions and of future economic conditions in this paper we examine the response of yields on treasury bills to the announcement of the money supply and the extent to which that response has varied in the last ten years money supply announcements may affect market interest rates in three ways first actual expansion of the money supply leads to lower interest rates through a liquidity effect however rapid monetary growth which is not anticipated leads market participants to expect the federal reserve to counteract such growth in the future as a consequence there may be a policy anticipation effect which causes higher interest rates in anticipation of future tightening furthermore prolonged rapid monetary growth also creates inflation and inflationary expectations which lead to higher interest rates thus there may exist a third effect the inflationary expectations effect which also leads to higher interest rates our interest in this paper is in the immediate market response to the weekly announcement of the money supply which as we argue below is most likely to be a policy anticipation effect the policy anticipation effect is best described by example suppose that the announced change in the money supply exceeds that which was expected by

the effect of public information and competition on trading volume and price volatility in a one period model of market making with many exogenously informed traders we first show that the variance of prices and expected trading volume depend on the public information released at the start of trading this is accomplished by representing beliefs with elliptically countoured distributions for which the form of optimal decision rules does not depend on the specific distribution used second if the model is altered so that the decision to become informed is made endogenous then the decision rules of the market maker and infomed traders depend on the public information third in a multiperiod model with many informed traders and long lived private information recursion formulas similar to those of kyle 1985 hold for all elliptically contoured distributions trading volume is autocorrelated and unless per period liquidity trading is bounded away from zero as new trading periods are added informed traders profits vanish article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

globalization brain drain and development this paper reviews four decades of economics research on the brain drain with a focus on recent contributions and on development issues we first assess the magnitude intensity and determinants of the brain drain showing that brain drain or high skill migration is becoming a dominant pattern of international migration and a major aspect of globalization we then use a stylized growth model to analyze the various channels through which a brain drain affects the sending countries and review the evidence on these channels the recent empirical literature shows that high skill emigration need not deplete a country s human capital stock and can generate positive network externalities three case studies are also considered the african medical brain drain the exodus of european scientists to the united states and the role of the indian diaspora in the development of india s information technology sector we conclude with a discussion of the implications of the analysis for education immigration and international taxation policies in a global context

does central bank independence lower inflation this paper provides a potential explanation for the recent findings of no significant relationship between central bank independence cbi and lower inflation we argue that although cbi delivers lower inflation in the short term it may reduce the scope for productivity enhancing public investment and so harm future growth potential we also argue that the effects on growth make cbi less likely to achieve lower inflation in the long term

a brain gain or a brain drain migration endogenous fertility and human capital formation i introduction it is traditionally argued that openness to international migration within a developing country can cause high skilled workers to emigrate and thereby create a brain drain problem 1 however it has been demonstrated in recent studies that such openness to international migration raises the return on human capital in a developing country which in turn raises the average level of human capital in the source country 2 this article revisits this issue building on the prior studies by examining the impact of migration on economic growth through the role of human capital there are however three features that distinguish this article from the prior works first of all while most of the prior studies on migration have tended to focus solely on static models so as to simplify their analyses we develop a dynamic model of migration within which endogenous growth is generated 3 this dynamic model enables us to study the dynamic behavior of the economy and to separate the short run effects from the long run effects when there are changes in migration policy an endogenous growth model is constructed in this article to allow for the persistent growth of a source country hence we contribute to two strands of the literature international migration and the endogenous growth model we also show that under certain conditions the balanced growth path bgp may exist to the best of our knowledge this is the first article to consider the possibility of the bgp within a migration model second we endogenize the fertility choice within the model it is already widely acknowledged that fertility and education are interdependent decisions for parents indeed becker murphy and tamura 1990 developed a model to examine the way s in which the joint decisions on fertility and education affect economic growth while the linkage between growth and inequality was subsequently explored when differential fertility matters by de la croix and doepke 2003 however the studies on migration have tended to assume a constant population growth rate and have generally not taken into account fertility decisions examples include rodriguez 1975 and mountford 1997 both of which presented dynamic models to study the issues of migration and economic growth in both cases population was taken as an exogenous variable and was assumed to grow at a constant rate in this article we allow parents to make fertility and education decisions and to have an opportunity to migrate to a foreign country internalizing fertility decisions induces a trade off between the quality and the quantity of children when there are changes in migration policy this trade off will then have an effect on economic growth as a result of its direct effect on the accumulation of human capital fertility does matter when considering an economy with heterogeneous agents since it will also affect the structure of the labor force third we include the average costs involved in preparing each migrating child to overcome the various barriers when migrating to foreign countries with different backgrounds languages and cultures a static model with migration costs such as language skills preparation was developed by lien and wang 2005 in which they found that when including such costs the openness to international migration may well create a brain drain since it is quite common for the governments of developing countries to encourage their citizens to migrate to certain foreign countries the inclusion of the costs of migration allows us to study the impact of these policies we develop a migration model within which agents differ from one another based upon their different endowments of human capital considering two alternative scenarios to facilitate our examination of the effects of migration on economic performance in the first scenario we consider the case where the host country cannot differentiate between the abilities of the migrants as a result of asymmetric information between the host country and the migrants

public and private education in an integrated europe studying to migrate and teaching to stay this paper investigates public and private choices between internationally applicable and country specific education when graduates are mobile human capital depends on innate skills and study effort with either type of education it is shown that national governments provide too few students with internationally applicable education and too many with country specific education this effect is mitigated but not entirely eliminated by the introduction of a graduate tax according to which graduates are required to pay part of their taxes to the country where they received their education regardless of residence however private educational choices are socially optimal with suitably differentiated tuition fees

on the volatility and comovement of u s financial markets around macroeconomic news announcements the objective of this paper is to provide a deeper insight into the links between financial markets and the real economy to that end we study the short term anticipation and response of u s stock treasury and corporate bond markets to the first release of surprise u s macroeconomic information specifically we focus on the impact of these announcements not only on the level but also on the volatility and comovement of those assets returns we do so by estimating several extensions of the parsimonious multivariate garch dcc model of engle 2002 for the excess holding period returns on seven portfolios of these asset classes we find that both the process of price formation in each of those financial markets and their interaction appear to be driven by fundamentals yet our analysis reveals a statistically and economically significant dichotomy between the reaction of the stock and bond markets to the arrival of unexpected fundamental information we also show that the conditional mean volatility and comovement among stock treasury and corporate bond returns react asymmetrically to the information content of these surprise announcements overall the above results shed new light on the mechanismsbywhichnewinformationisincorporatedintopriceswithinandacrossu s financial markets

inflation and central bank independence revisited abstract king and ma economics letters 72 2001 95 claim that evidence which they report for a sample of 42 countries shows that central bank independence cbi and inflation are not significantly related the present paper argues that this putative failure of cbi to affect inflation is due to king and ma s use of an econometric methodology that does not account for the inaccuracy of their proxy for cbi employing an alternative econometric methodology that tackles the measurement error problem directly this paper finds a strong negative relationship between cbi and inflation

monetary policy surprises and interest rates evidence from the fed funds futures market abstract this paper estimates the impact of monetary policy actions on bill note and bond yields using data from the futures market for federal funds to separate changes in the target funds rate into anticipated and unanticipated components interest rates response to anticipated target rate changes is small while their response to unanticipated changes is large and highly significant these responses are generally consistent with the expectations hypothesis of the term structure surprise target rate changes have little effect on expectations of future actions however which helps to explain the lack of empirical support for the expectations hypothesis at the short end of the yield curve

a voluntary brain drain tax abstract a major roadblock to the implementation of bhagwati s proposal to allow developing countries to tax skilled emigrants residing in developed countries the brain drain is the administrative problems associated with collecting this tax in the absence of developed country cooperation this paper provides a partial solution to these problems involving the tax treatment of emigrants who return to their countries of origin the tax system is structured so that returning emigrants who previously paid the brain drain tax face lower tax payments than those who evaded the brain drain tax given the expected value of this tax benefit emigrants are willing to pay the brain drain tax in the basic model a source country s optimal tax system includes this brain drain tax and does not distort migration decisions

inflation and central bank independence conventional wisdom redux until recently there existed a broad consensus that an important institution for combating inflation is a central bank insulated from political influence this conventional wisdom has been challenged by among others campillo and miron 1997 who present evidence purporting to show that if an inflation regression equation is expanded to include not only their proxy for central bank independence cbi but other regressors as well then the negative correlation between inflation and cbi vanishes the present paper argues that allegations of the demise of this nexus should not be accepted uncritically this paper which reports the results of an analysis of covariance structures finds a strong negative relationship between inflation and cbi

international migration and educated unemployment this paper provides a novel explanation of educated unemployment which is a salient feature of the labor markets in a number of developing countries in a simple job search framework we show that educated unemployment is caused by the prospect of international migration that is by the possibility of a brain drain in addition the analysis shows that a developing country may end up with more educated workers despite the brain drain and educated unemployment

selective immigration policies migrants education and welfare at origin abstract destination countries are increasingly adopting selective immigration policies these can effectively increase migrants average education even if one allows for endogenous schooling decisions and education policies at origin still more selective immigration policies can reduce social welfare at origin

a back door brain drain abstract the long run effect of migration solely by unskilled workers is that skilled workers in the home country acquire additional human capital yet their share in the country s workforce falls consequently the country s average level of human capital is lowered

impact of interest rates on islamic and conventional banks the case of turkey identifying the impact of the interest rates upon islamic banks is a key to understand the contribution of such institutions to the financial stability designing monetary policies and devising a proper risk management applicable to these institutions this article analyses and investigates the impact of interest rate shock upon the deposits and loans held by the conventional and islamic banks with particular reference to the period between december 2005 and july 2009 based on vector error correction vec methodology it is theoretically expected that the islamic banks relying on interest free banking shall not be affected by the interest rates however in concurrence with the previous studies the article finds that the islamic banks in turkey are visibly influenced by interest rates

heaven s swing door endogenous skills migration networks and the effectiveness of quality selective immigration policies a growing number of oecd countries are leaning toward the adoption of selective immigration policies which are expected to raise the quality or education level of migrants this view neglects two important dynamic effects the role of migration networks which could reduce the quality of migrants and the responsiveness of education decisions to the prospect of migration we propose a model of self selection into migration with endogenous education choices which predicts that migration networks and the quality of migrants can be positively associated when destination countries adopt sufficiently selective immigration policies empirical evidence presented as background motivation suggests that this is indeed the case

on the impossibility of central bank independence four decades of time and intellectual inconsistency the intellectual justification for modern central banking time inconsistency celebrated its fortieth anniversary in 2017 alongside the cambridge journal of economics however the key progeny of the time inconsistency literature central bank independence has fundamental flaws that have been thus far neglected in mainstream research in the first instance the argument for independence relies on a utilitarian rather than institutional analysis one that neglects the genesis of central banks and their relation to other institutions within a country second central bank independence neglects the complex interdependencies of the global monetary and financial system applying an institutional lens to the concept of central bank independence i conclude that independence fails under the reality of globalization as much as it does in a domestic context with central banks reliant on all manner of political institutions they are never really independent operationally or in terms of policy

the fiscal impact of high skilled emigration flows of indians to the u s abstract what are the fiscal consequences of high skilled emigration for source countries this paper develops methodologies for inferring these consequences and applies them to the recent sizable emigration of high skilled workers from india to the u s this wave of emigration from india to the u s is shown to be unusually concentrated amongst the prime age work force the highly educated and high earners in order to calculate the fiscal losses associated with these emigrants estimates of their counterfactual earnings distributions are generated using two distinct methods and integrated with a model of the indian fiscal system to calculate fiscal consequences conservative estimates indicate that the annual net fiscal impact to india of high skilled emigration to the u s is one half of 1 of gross national income or 2 5 of total fiscal revenues the sensitivity of these results to the method of predicting counterfactual incomes and the implications of these estimates for other developing countries is discussed in detail

volatility in the foreign currency futures market we examine the volatility implications of around the clock foreign exchange trading with transaction data on futures contracts from the chicago mercantile exchange and the london international financial futures exchange we find higher u s european and u s japanese exchange rate volatilities during u s trading hours and higher european cross rate volatilities during european trading hours while the diclosure of private information through trading may partly explain these volatility patterns we conclude that the increased volatility is more likely driven by macroeconomic news announcements an analysis of inter and intraday data also reveals that volatility increases at times that coincide with the release of u s macroeconomic news article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

is migration a good substitute for education subsidies assuming a given educational policy the recent brain drain literature reveals that skilled migration can boost the average level of schooling in developing countries this paper introduces educational subsidies determined by governments concerned by the number of skilled workers remaining in the country the theoretical analysis shows that developing countries can benefit from skilled emigration when educational subsidies entail high fiscal distortions however when taxes are not too distortionary it is desirable to impede emigration and subsidize education the authors investigate the empirical relationship between educational subsidies and migration prospects obtaining a negative relationship for 105 countries based on this result the analysis revisits the country specific effects of skilled migration upon human capital the findings show that the endogeneity of public subsidies reduces the number of winners and increases the magnitude of the losses

inducing human capital formation migration as a substitute for subsidies abstract when productivity is fostered by an individual s own human capital as well as by the economy wide average level of human capital individuals under invest in human capital the provision of subsidies for the formation of human capital conditional on the subsidy being self financed by tax revenues can bring the economy to its socially optimal level of human capital yet a strictly positive probability of migration to a richer country by raising both the level of human capital formed by optimizing individuals in the home country and the average level of human capital of non migrants in the country can enhance welfare and nudge the economy toward the social optimum indeed under a well controlled restrictive migration policy the welfare of all workers is higher than in the absence of this policy

migration as an antidote to rent seeking abstract we develop a new mechanism through which skilled migration may influence economic performance in the sending country if agents can choose between acting as rent seekers and engaging in productive activities and only productive skills are exportable a positive probability of migration to a more secure economy reduces the relative expected returns from rent seeking thus decreasing the proportion of skilled workers who opt for parasitic activities such an improvement in the allocation of talent may prevail over the loss of skilled workers due to outmigration however we show that this result is not robust to the introduction of endogenous protection if productive workers share their resources between accumulation of productive capital and investment in security prospective migration may induce a weaker protection against rent seeking which in turn might depress average income in the source economy