on unemployment inflow and outflow in urban china wu z and yao s 2006 on unemployment inflow and outflow in urban china regional studies 40 811 822 as the largest transitional economy in the world china s labour market has a number of characteristics distinctively different from that of the developed economies such as the uk or the usa this paper aims to identify the determinants of unemployment inflow and outflow in urban china with empirical data for 29 provinces over 1989 99 it is found that rural urban migration ownership diversification industrial structural change international trade international competitiveness product wages and age structure are key determinants of unemployment flows the results suggest that due to market imperfections unemployment inflow and outflow are two asymmetric processes with respect to the concerned predetermined variables wu z et yao s 2006 sur l afflux et la fuite du chomage dans la chine urbaine regional studies 40 811 822 en tant que l economie en voie de transition la plus grande du monde

responding to financial crisis the case of jamaica abstract the adverse economic and social effects of the financial crises that have afflicted many developing countries in recent years have highlighted the need to develop a policy response which addresses the vulnerability of financial systems to systemic instability and crisis the article examines the experience of jamaica a country which managed a financial sector crisis during the 1990s without the assistance or involvement of the international monetary fund lessons are drawn from the jamaica case study for the domestic management of banking sector failures in lower income countries

the formal divide customary rights and the allocation of credit to agriculture in tanzania abstractit is generally held that one mechanism to enable inclusive growth in tanzania is enabling farmers to access credit to raise productivity and incomes the formalisation of property rights in tanzania is being undertaken by a multiplicity of actors at great expense to donors individuals and the government while there have been a variety of different justifications for allocating certificates of customary rights of occupancy ccros to farmers in tanzania perhaps the most prominent argument is that it will enable farmers to finally overcome the divide between informal customary rights and the formal banking sector ccros would provide the collateral that would induce banks to lend money to small scale farmers as part of a six year investigation in manyara mbeya and dodoma regions our research team evaluated the impact of formalisation on farmers access to credit the paper will present the results while pointing to the continuing institutional and market imperfections that perpetuate the fo

challenges and opportunities in el salvador s financial sector abstract the formal financial sector has expanded rapidly in postwar el salvador encouraged by premature financial liberalization and a remittance windfall exceeding commercial banks capacities to lend prudently the counterpart of this spurious financial deepening is a shallow financial market for smaller firms which reflects both difficult real conditions for small urban and agricultural enterprises and the unfortunate effects of the credit channeling model characterizing development banks and most nongovernment organization projects this model discourages the growth of small scale institutions that can fund themselves from local resources and limits the ability of small producers to accumulate financial savings

financial sector reform and sustainable development the case of costa rica abstract how can financial sector reform be designed specifically so that it enhances the prospects for sustainable development this paper begins an analysis of this little discussed intersection with a focus on the problems and possibilities facing costa rica policy changes that encourage financial markets to incorporate long term environmental sustainability concerns will require moving beyond a standard model of financial liberalization flighty financial flows systemic pressures against innovation and unpriced environmental externalities all mean that real sector environmental performance will be adversely affected by financial sector dynamics lacking appropriate policy markers financial market policies must encourage market forces to channel capital flows that build productive capabilities based on complementarities between development and environmental quality costa rica s reform process and unusual depth of experience in pursuing sustainable development make it an ideal place for such financial market innovations to be attempted getting its incentive system right in financial restructuring could aid immensely in the emergence and application of sustainability based competitive capabilities a set of market based green financial reforms is proposed including tax advantaged banking and bond programs rural group lending and a single certification entity for potential borrowers in these programs

stock markets corporate finance and economic growth during the past decade the capitalization of emerging markets increased twentyfold in 1994 trading on these markets accounted for about 17 percent of the 9 6 trillion of shares traded on the world s stock markets up from a mere 3 percent of the much smaller 1 6 trillion in 1985 this rapid growth in emerging stock market activity raises critical questions for developing country policymakers what effect do stock markets have on economic growth how does stock market development affect firms financing decision and if stock markets are good for growth what policies can governments adopt to foster their development this note summarizes answers to these questions drawn from a recent research project

bank ownership and performance does politics matter this paper uses a new dataset to reassess the relationship between bank ownership and bank performance providing separate estimations for developing and industrial countries it finds that state owned banks located in developing countries tend to have lower profitability and higher costs than their private counterparts and that the opposite is true for foreign owned banks the paper finds no strong correlation between ownership and performance for banks located in industrial countries next in order to test whether the differential in performance between public and private banks is driven by political considerations the paper checks whether this differential widens during election years it finds strong support for this hypothesis

risk premiums for decision regret some people find decision making under uncertainty difficult because they fear making the wrong decision wrong in the sense that the outcome of their chosen alternative proves to be worse than could have been achieved with another alternative these people may be willing to pay a premium to avoid consequences that produce this decision regret this paper continues an earlier investigation into the normative implications of decision regret and looks at situations where the joint probability distribution of consequences between alternatives is not specified at the time of the decision it includes a discussion of cases where the outcomes produced by alternatives not chosen are never resolved a consequence of this model of preferences for risky situations is that two components of risk aversion may be identified decreasing marginal value and regret aversion

financial development economic growth and banking sector controls evidence from india this paper uses newly collected data from the reserve bank of india to examine the effects of various types of banking sector controls on the process of financial deepening with the exception of a lending rate ceiling these controls are found to influence financial deepening negatively independently of the well known effect of the real interest rate exogeneity tests suggest that financial deepening and economic growth are jointly determined thus policies which affect financial deepening may also have an influence on economic growth the role of banking sector controls in the process of economic development has received considerable attention in the literature the traditional approach due to mckinnon i973 and shaw i973 postulates that government intervention in the pricing and allocation of loanable funds dubbed financial repression inhibits financial development by depressing real interest rates see

financing enterprise development in sub saharan africa this paper examines some critical gaps in the financial infrastructure in sub saharan africa which have contributed to the poor performance of productive investment by private agents it first analyses the performance of financial systems encompassing both formal and informal financial sectors in relation to the changing policy environment and key features of the financial market structure it then identifies those gaps in financial services that have been particularly detrimental to private investment enterprise growth and transformation finally the paper considers policy implications drawn from east asian experiences with respect to financial policies institutional arrangements and market integration measures for financing enterprise development copyright 2001 by oxford university press

the paradoxes of the successful state abstract three issues are discussed in this paper first i argue that it is impossible to understand the east asian growth miracle without appreciating the importtant role that government policy played in stimulating private investment second i will summarize some of my work on the determinants of policy effectiveness based on a cross country comparison of export subsidy regimes and show that the usual rules of thumb on what makes for good policy uniformity transparency non selectivity etc are quite useless in predicting which policy regimes perform better in practice third i will provide some evidence that the government s social insurance role creates a complementarity between states and markets these three sets of ideas yield a more balanced and nuanced view of the role of the state in economic development than has recently become commonplace

stock and credit market expansion and economic development in emerging markets further evidence utilizing cointegration analysis this paper empirically investigates the relationship between equity and credit market development and economic growth in a sample of five very important emerging markets in particular employing a multivariate time series methodology to test for long run trends and causality between variables that proxy for stock market development credit market development and economic development the results seem to suggest that equity markets have a role to play only in relatively liberalized economies like chile and mexico in financially repressed economies like india the equity market does not affect real sector growth furthermore the banking crises in the 1980s and 1990s in chile and mexico resulted in a negative relation between economic growth and the credit market in south korea equity and credit markets both affect economic growth but not vice versa in countries where the nature of the stock market has been speculative like taiwan a negative relationship is detected between equity market develo

financial liberalisation institutional transformation and credit allocation in developing countries the world bank and the internationalisation of banking the paper documents and analyses the world bank s promotion of foreign ownership of banking in developing countries in the wake of two decades of financial crises following exercises of orthodox financial reform the world bank has not only continued to push privatisation but now sees foreign banks as the missing component that will deal with the downside risks of financial liberalisation concerns that foreign banks might reduce small and medium enterprise sme loan access because of information problems are largely dismissed by the bank in fact the world bank argues for the very opposite the existence of foreign banks is likely to have the effect of pushing local banks into sme markets where they have a greater comparative advantage the question of access to credit for the private sector particularly the locally owned small and medium size enterprises is central to the issue of employment generation and poverty reduction in developing countries where the bulk of new jobs are typically created by these companies this article traces the development of the world bank s agenda on foreign ownership it critically assesses the arguments and empirical work underlying the world bank analysis and draws on alternative empirical testing and case studies to raise serious questions about the downside risks associated with the internationalisation of banking copyright the author 2009 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

disappointment in decision making under uncertainty decision analysis requires that two equally desirable consequences should have the same utility and vice versa most analyses of financial decision making presume that two consequences with the same dollar outcome will be equally preferred however winning the top prize of 10 000 in a lottery may leave one much happier than receiving 10 000 as the lowest prize in a lottery this paper explores the implications of disappointment a psychological reaction caused by comparing the actual outcome of a lottery to one s prior expectations for decision making under uncertainty explicit recognition that decision makers may be paying a premium to avoid potential disappointment provides an interpretation for some known behavioral paradoxes and suggests that decision makers may be sensitive to the manner in which a lottery is resolved the concept of disappointment is integrated into utility theory in a prescriptive model

political economy origins of financial markets in europe and asia summary we provide historical evidence from london amsterdam and hong kong which highlights the essential role played by governments in kick starting financial development in the cases of london and amsterdam the emergence of financial markets was a by product of the rise of large trading monopolies these monopolies partly created to improve public finances were responsible for major financial innovations and helped to strengthen investors property rights in hong kong where the financial development model was bank based a large banking monopoly with close links to both the british and chinese governments set up to finance international trade played a similar role

financial system development in transition economies this paper provides an overview of the major issues with respect to financial system development in transition economies which were discussed at a conference in groningen the netherlands december 1997 after a brief remark on the role of financial system design during economic transition the paper focuses on the role of stock markets in the process of financial intermediation with emphasis on the role of regulations in these markets the role of deposit insurance to improve bank system stability and the importance of an independent central bank measurement issues relating to central bank independence and its impact on inflation and growth 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

wto accession rural labour migration and urban unemployment in china this paper evaluates the rural urban migration and urban unemployment effects of china s wto accession based on the china us bilateral agreement on market accession the evaluation is conducted by

a survey of recent developments in the literature of finance and growth this paper provides a survey of the recent progress in the literature of financial development and economic growth the survey highlights that most empirical studies focus on either testing the role of financial development in stimulating economic growth or examining the direction of causality between these two variables although the positive role of finance on growth has become a stylized fact there are some methodological reservations about the results from these empirical studies several key issues unresolved in the literature are highlighted the paper also points to several directions for future research

the design of successful rural financial intermediaries evidence from indonesia abstract the success outreach and sustainability of eight rural financial intermediation systems in indonesia in profitably reaching large numbers of small individual clients is explained in terms of organizational design networks of semiautonomous units use local information and contract enforcement mechanisms to lower transaction costs reflecting basic concerns with institutional and financial viability elements of mechanism design have included compatible incentives such as performance based compensations profit sharing collection fees efficiency wages equivalent to quasi equity and system monitoring managerial discretion over transactions conducted at market terms policies to protect portfolio value and no dependency creating subsidies are important interventions have been appropriate for the problem at hand

can financial infrastructures foster economic development in this paper financial infrastructures increase the efficiency of the banking sector they decrease the market power due to horizontal differentiation of the financial intermediaries lower the cost of capital increase the number of depositors and the amount of intermediated savings factors which in turn increase the growth rate and may help countries to take off from a poverty trap taxation finances financial infrastructures and decreases the private productivity of capital growth and welfare maximising levels of financial infrastructures are computed

financial liberalization does it pay to join the party financial liberalization is a highly controversial policy despite the fact that almost all the regions of the world have undergone liberalization of their financial markets its effect on the performance of different economic sectors remains a question in our research we find that financial liberalization reduces the cost of capital boosting the relative growth rates of economic sectors that for technological reasons rely heavily on external to the firm finance this result however depends on the quality of institutions supporting credit markets the effects of financial liberalization are more notable in countries that have and enforce regulations to protect property rights in this sense the answer to the question in the title of the paper is not clear cut the impact of financial liberalization on growth depends on underlying institutional factors

emerging stock markets portfolio capital flows and long term economie growth micro and macroeconomic perspectives abstract the paper examines two major components of financial liberalization stock market development and portfolio capital flows in the context of less developed countries the paper considers microeconomic and macroeconomic perspectives on their implications for long term development and economic growth it concentrates on 1 a the role of stock markets in financing corporate growth 2 b the implications of stock market volatility for resource allocation and productive efficiency and 3 c the interactions between the foreign exchange and stock markets in the context of economic shocks its policy recommendations are that ldcs should promote bank based systems influence the scale and composition of capital inflows and prevent a market for corporate control from emerging

moral hazard and optimal commodity taxation abstract this paper demonstrates that in an economy with moral hazard and more than one commodity competitive equilibrium is not constrained efficient to correct the market failure differential commodity taxation is necessary a general optimal tax formula is derived and special cases of is discussed

a reappraisal of state owned banks we revisit the public banks debate survey the theoretical arguments and test the robustness and expand the existing empirical evidence while we find some support for the view that public banks do not allocate credit optimally we also report indicative evidence that they exert a positive influence on private bank efficiency and may contribute to reduce credit procyclicality ultimately we find that the recent criticism to public banks has generally been based on inconclusive cross country evidence more specific bank level research is still needed to substantiate a case for or against public banks in developing economies

the hidden cost of raising voters expectations reference dependence and politicians credibility abstract two politicians compete to get elected each politician is characterized by a valence which is unobservable to the electorate and can take one of two values high or low the representative voter prefers politicians with high valence but random shocks may lead him to appoint a low valence politician politicians make statements concerning their valence if the voter is a standard expected utility maximizer politicians statements lack any credibility and no information transmission takes place by introducing reference dependence and loss aversion we show that truthful communication is possible in equilibrium and we characterize the conditions under which it can arise intuitively these behavioral biases introduce a cost of overstating one s valence as overstatements may shift the electorate s preferences toward better skilled opponents

are wages habit forming evidence from micro data although utility functions play a central role in economics the axiom that utility depends only on the absolute levels of its arguments is rarely tested this paper uses panel data on 2000 british employees who remain with the same employer and who are not promoted from one wave to the next it is shown that one important measure of well being overall job satisfaction is strongly positively correlated with the change in the worker s pay between waves but is unrelated to the current level of pay empirical tests suggest that a reference dependent satisfaction function where individual well being depends on current pay relative to past pay is more consistent with these regression results than are productivity or agency explanations of increasing wage profiles some evidence is presented of greater job satisfaction effects of pay rises for lower paid less well educated and younger workers these results provide some micro evidence consistent with the theory widespread in social science of habituation individuals may become used to any given level of consumption or income as such they tie in with the finding that a country s well being as measured by the average happiness of its citizens is only weakly correlated with its per capita gnp

the role of warehouse receipt systems in enhanced commodity marketing and rural livelihoods in africa most african countries have since the 1980s liberalised agriculture without experiencing food crisis as feared by sceptics but the outcome of reforms has been rather disappointing and agricultural markets remain underdeveloped and inefficient one means to improve agricultural marketing which is the focus of this paper is to develop regulated warehouse receipt wr systems the system will curtail cheating on weights and measures ease access to finance at all levels in the marketing chain moderate seasonal price variability and promote instruments to mitigate price risks it will also reduce the need for the government to intervene in agricultural markets and reduce the cost of such interventions if needed the major problem in establishing wr systems in africa is disabling elements in the policy environment drawing on experience from projects implemented in africa during the last decade 1 the authors outline how this challenge can be addressed the most crucial being to build strong stakeholder support behind the initiative 2002 elsevier science ltd all rights reserved

financial crisis in southeast asia dispelling illusion the minskyan way this paper extends minsky s financial instability hypothesis to the case of the open liberalised economy making it possible to put forward a specifically minskyan account of the road to the financial crisis in southeast asia 1997 1998 the analysis suggests that the threats to growth and employment emanating from the financial sector which minsky identified in the closed economy setting are much intensified in open liberalised developing economies financial liberalisation is an important key factor in this process rival explanations of the crisis are examined and rejected in favour of the extended minskyan explanation the policy implications are derived and discussed copyright 2002 oxford university press

credit markets and the control of capital traditional discussions of the role of capital markets have identified a number of distinct functions which they perforrn they allocate scarce capital among competing users and uses l and they provide signals to guide managers in making their investment decisions 2 in this lecture i wish to focus on a rather different function of the capital market what i shall refer to as the control of capital 3 conventional theory treats the typical firrn in an anthropomorphic manner it acts as a single rational individual doing what it is supposed to be doing maximizing stock market value that may have been well and good in those nostalgic bygone days of small firrns each run tightly by their owners who were single mindedly pursuing their lust for wealth but today a majority of production occurs in large corporations in which no shareholder owns more than a small fraction of the shares in which the separation of ownership and control that frank knight was so concerned with in his writings some sixty five years ago has become a reality those

integrating finance into the multi level perspective technology niche finance regime interactions and financial policy interventions abstract any major socio technical transition requires a fundamental re direction of financial capital from incumbent to new technologies and practices while the transitions literature conceptually covers financial markets the role of finance is marginalized and has scarcely been analysed empirically to address this gap here we build on the multi level perspective mlp which considers financial markets as part of the existing regime we argue that the role of finance is highly relevant for the niche regime interaction redirecting finance towards new niche technologies requires that either the niche is fit for and conforms to the financial regime s expectations or the financial regime is stretched and transformed in order to accept and finance niche technologies based on 56 interviews we identify factors that determine interactions between the financial regime and technology niches these include acceptable risk and transaction size an abundance of knowledge and heuristics in both the regime and niche and an extensive existing industry network we further analyse how state investment bank sib interventions in germany the uk and australia aimed to mobilise private finance into low carbon project development affect the interaction between the technology niche and financial regime i e whether they resulted in fitting and conforming the technological niche for the financial regime or stretching and transforming the financial regime our results point to several important effects of sib interventions with most effects fitting the niche to the regime however we also detect effects that stretch and transform the financial regime through evolutionary processes importantly some effects occur as a consequence of the primary effects based on our findings we discuss policy implications on how to accelerate transitions through policies aiming at finance as well as theoretical insights gained through our analysis

financial restraints and private investment evidence from a nonstationary panel we employ recently developed panel data methods to estimate a model of private investment under nancial restraints for 20 developing countries using annual data for 1972 2000 we show that the qualitative nature of the results varies depending on whether we take into account cross country eects when we allow for cross sectional dependence investment displays more sensitivity to world capital market conditions and exchange rate uncertainty a perhaps even more surprising result is the nding that countries that managed to suppress domestic real interest rates without generating high in ation enjoyed higher levels of private investment than those that would have been obtained under liberalised conditions

financial restraints in the south korean miracle abstract we provide novel empirical evidence on the effects of financial restraints on south korean financial development the evidence is linked to a simple model of the korean banking system that encapsulates its cartelised nature which predicts a positive association between financial development and i the degree of state control over the banking system ii mild repression of lending rates the model also predicts that in the presence of lending rate controls increases in the level of the administered deposit rate are unlikely to influence financial deepening we test the model empirically by constructing individual and summary measures of financial restraints our empirical findings are consistent with our theoretical predictions but contrast sharply with the predictions of earlier literature that postulates that interest rate ceilings and other financial restraints constitute sources of financial repression

redefining the role of the state an interview with introduction by brian snowdon professor joseph stiglitz is without question one of the world s leading economists in his extensive research he has made seminal contributions to the analysis of the economic consequences of incomplete information and uncertainty this work has greatly enhanced economists understanding of the welfare properties of markets and the sources of market failure his research has also contributed to the development of better microeconomic foundations for keynesian macroeconomic models most recently professor stiglitz has been heavily involved in controversial public policy debates relating to the east asian crisis problems of transition from communism to capitalism the limitations of the washington consensus and globalisation and development a common theme in all of these debates relates to the role of government and legitimate borders of the state in both developed and developing economies in this article interview professor stiglitz gives his views on these and several other important global issues

can an islamic model of housing finance cooperative elevate the economic status of the underprivileged abstract a formal home loan is onerous to subprime borrowers in efficient markets this can deter home ownership for financially strapped individuals leading to a market failure this paper proposes a special form of cooperative mortgage financing practiced in oman to overcome this market failure we integrate the literature of mortgage design with that of informal savings schemes i e roscas ascras to illustrate that this mode of financing dissipates credit risk better than the

savings investment and the corporation in the east asian miracle abstract the east asian countries have achieved a spectacular average rate of economic growth over the last 30 to 40 years with very substantial diversification and economic development korea for example managed to transform itself from being a largely agricultural society in 1960 to the point where it became the third country after the us and japan to export 256 k memory chips developed by its own firms it is no exaggeration to say that the post wwii development of east asia including japan is the most successful story of sustained economic growth in the history of mankind how does one account for this extraordinary economic success

the financial crisis and bank client relationships foreign ownership transparency and portfolio selection abstract using a unique dataset that matches banks with their client firms we investigate the differences between foreign and domestic banks in a developing country in particular we are interested in examining how foreign banks solve the information asymmetries that characterize lending relationships and whether those relationships have changed since the financial crisis of 2008 foreign banks are likely to limit their lending activity to larger firms or more transparent firms because they are at an informational disadvantage relative to domestic banks we find that foreign banks focus on relationships with foreign listed and larger firms in addition their portfolio is more heavily weighted towards firms in less competitive industries and exporting firms comparing outcomes for 2006 and 2009 we find that banks are more concerned with leverage in 2009 and have reduced the number of firms in their portfolio post crisis

stock markets corporate finance and economic growth an overview the research presented here focuses on four issues first it constructs more measures or criteria of stock market development than any previous study it compares liquidity concentration volatility institutional development and international integration across forty four industrial and developing countries from 1976 to 1993 besides identifying general characteristics of these measures and defining stock market development empirically these data facilitate further research into the relationship between stock market development and financial intermediaries corporate finance decisions and economic growth these measures ranked for each country can be used for inter country comparisons of the level of stock market development in addition the data provide a basis for gauging the success of capital market development projects using objective criteria second with these new data the research investigates the relationships between stock markets and financial intermediaries third the research analyzes the relationship between stock market development and long run economic growth fourth the research studies the ties between stock market development and financing choices of firms this overview puts this research in context and reviews the main results of the study section i provides a brief review of the role of stock markets in economic development and documents the evolution of debt and equity markets during the growth process section ii defines stock market development and presents summary data on the development of financial intermediaries and stock markets section iii presents evidence on the effect of stock market development on economic growth section iv summarizes the empirical results on how stock market development affects firm financing decisions section v concludes by discussing policy implications

the role of the state in financial markets this paper reexamines the role of the state in financial markets and identifies seven major market failures that provide a potential rationale for government intervention in practice government interventions in capital markets even in industrial countries have been pervasive the paper provides a taxonomy of those interventions with respect to both the objectives they serve and the instruments they employ there is a role for the government in financial markets but the success of government interventions has been mixed it is important that interventions be well designed the paper sets out principles for government regulatory interventions and applies them to prudential regulation it then examines three other areas of intervention directed credit finanical repression and competition policy and identifies circumstances in which some amount of financial repression may actually be beneficial

government financial institutions and capital allocation efficiency in japan abstract this paper uses the industry level panel data from 1975 2005 and estimates wurgler s the elasticity of industry investment to value added for each of japan s 47 prefectures we find that wurgler s varies considerably across prefectures even though there is no regulatory restriction on inter regional flow of financial capital moreover exploiting cross prefecture variation in wurgler s we show that the share of government loans is strongly and negatively correlated with the quality of capital allocation we also find that this negative correlation is robust to controlling for local economic and financial development and more pronounced in declining industries than growing industries moreover the share of government loans is positively correlated with investment to output ratio but negatively correlated with total factor productivity growth taken as a whole the results are broadly consistent with the view that japan s government financial institutions stimulate investment in declining industries while distorting capital allocation and reducing overall productivity growth

peer monitoring and credit markets a major problem for institutional lenders is ensuring that borrowers exercise prudence in the use of the funds so that the likelihood of repayment is enhanced one partial solution is peer monitoring having neighbors who are in a good position to monitor the borrower be required to pay a penalty if the borrower goes bankrupt peer monitoring is largely responsible for the successful financial performance of the grameen bank of bangladesh and of similar group lending programs elsewhere but peer monitoring has a cost it transfers risk from the bank which is in a better position to bear risk to the cosigner in a simple model of peer monitoring in a competitive credit market this article demonstrates that the transfer of risk leads to an improvement in borrowers welfare

a quantitative reassessment of the finance growth nexus evidence from a multivariate var abstract the long run relationship between financial development and economic growth is examined in a multivariate vector autoregression var framework using 10 sample countries difficulties surrounding the cross country regressions and bivariate time series studies are outlined the long run financial development and output relationships are identified in a cointegrating framework through tests of over identifying restrictions we find bi directional causality between financial development and economic growth in all the sample countries conclusions that stand distinct from those in the existing empirical literature we attribute our findings to i analysis of a higher dimensional system ii a new method of identifying the long run economic relationships and iii a new approach to long run causality testing

consumption and portfolio choice under internal multiplicative habit formation this paper explores the optimal consumption and investment behavior of an individual who derives utility from the ratio between his consumption and an endogenous habit we obtain closed form policies under general utility functionals and stochastic investment opportunities by developing a nontrivial linearization to the budget constraint this enables us to explicitly characterize how habit formation affects the marginal propensity to consume and optimal stock bond investments we also show that in a setting that combines habit formation with epstein zin utility consumption no longer grows at unrealistically high rates at high ages and investments in risky assets decrease

the potential of land rental markets in the process of economic development evidence from china abstract we develop a model of land leasing with agents characterized by unobserved heterogeneity in ability and presence of an off farm labor market in this case decentralized land rental may contribute to equity and efficiency goals and may have several advantages over administrative reallocation the extent to which this is true empirically is explored using data from three of china s poorest provinces land rental markets and administrative reallocation reallocate land to those with lower endowments but the former are more effective in doing so and have a bigger productivity enhancing effect information on hypothetical market participation suggests that reducing transaction costs in land rental markets could help to realize significant additional productivity gains

three and a half cycles of mania panic and asymmetric crash east asia and latin america compared this paper argues that despite some significant differences the 1982 debt crisis the 1994 mexican crisis and the 1997 east asian crisis share the common characteristic that over lending and over borrowing are basically endogenous market failures of over liquid and under regulated financial markets along the lines described by kindleberger s manias panics and crashes although these crashes have tended to be asymmetric as the largest international lenders have emerged relatively intact the paper concludes with a discussion of brazil s increasing vulnerability to a sudden collapse of confidence and withdrawal of finance which indicates the probability of another impending crisis

expectation based loss aversion and strategic interaction abstract by extending the equilibrium concepts of k szegi and rabin 2006 k szegi and rabin 2007 this paper analyzes the strategic interaction of expectation based loss averse players for loss averse players with choice acclimating expectations the utility from playing a mixed strategy is not linear but convex in the probabilities they assign to their pure strategies as a consequence they are generally unwilling to randomize and an equilibrium may fail to exist for players with choice unacclimating expectations by contrast randomizing over their pure strategies may indeed constitute a credible best response and an equilibrium always exists building upon these insights we delineate how expectation based loss averse players differ in their strategic behavior from their counterparts with standard expected utility preferences derive novel strategic effects discuss equilibrium selection and derive equilibrium play for some simple games

financial market fragmentation and reforms in ghana malawi nigeria and tanzania this article reports the findings from surveys of formal and informal institutions and their clients in ghana malawi nigeria and tanzania it investigates the hypothesis that reforming financially repressive policies would not be sufficient to overcome fragmentation of financial markets because of structural and institutional barriers to interactions across different market segments the four countries have substantially fragmented financial markets with weak linkages between formal and informal segments and interest rate differentials that cannot be adequately explained by differences in costs and risks nevertheless the relatively low transaction costs and loan losses of informal institutions indicate that they provide a reasonably efficient solution to information transaction cost and enforcement problems that exclude their clients from access to formal banking services the findings imply that financial liberalization and bank restructuring in the african context should be accompanied by complementary measures to address institutional and structural problems such as contract enforcement and information availability and to improve the integration of informal and formal financial markets

your loss is my gain a recruitment experiment with framed incentives empirically labor contracts that financially penalize failure induce higher effort provision than economically identical contracts presented as paying a bonus for success an effect attributed to loss aversion this is puzzling as penalties are infrequently used in practice the most obvious explanation is selection loss averse agents are unwilling to accept such contracts i formalize this intuition then run an experiment to test it surprisingly i find that workers were 25 percent more likely to accept penalty contracts with no evidence of adverse or advantageous selection consistent with the existing literature penalty contracts also increased performance on the job by 0 2 standard deviations i outline extensions to the basic theory that are consistent with the main results but argue that more research is needed on the long term effects of penalty contracts if we want to understand why firms seem unwilling to use them

new perspectives on east asian development conventional explanations of rapid growth in east asia have focused on the efficient allocation of resources resulting from market led outward oriented strategies this study challenges that approach east asian success has centred around the accumulation dynamic both because of its direct importance to the growth process and also because of its close and interdependent linkages with exports on this basis the study considers the institutions and policies which were used to manage economic rents in support of rapid growth and to ensure a more strategic and orderly integration into the world economy the study also examines the contribution of regional trade and investment flows to east asian industrialisation the potential for replicating similar strategies is considered

opening of china s trade labour market reform and impact on rural wages government policy in china supports urban wages at the expense of returns to farm labour a model is developed to estimate how wto accession and complementary labour market reform will influence factor returns in china with wto membership a larger cut in manufacturing tariffs compared to agriculture will improve agriculture s terms of trade and will raise the agricultural wage complementary labour market reforms will further boost farm wages as labour exits agriculture in large numbers we estimate that wto membership and complementary labour market reforms will result in a decline in the agricultural labour force by about 25 per cent

financial liberalization financial sector development and growth evidence from malaysia abstract the objective of this paper is to examine whether financial development leads to economic growth or vice versa in the small open economy of malaysia using time series data from 1960 to 2001 we conduct cointegration and causality tests to assess the finance growth link by taking the real interest rate and financial repression into account the empirical evidence suggests that financial liberalization through removing the repressionist policies has a favorable effect in stimulating financial sector development financial depth and economic development are positively related but contrary to the conventional findings our results support robinson s view that output growth leads to higher financial depth in the long run

moving off the farm land institutions to facilitate structural transformation and agricultural productivity growth in china agriculture has made major contributions to china s economic growth and poverty reduction but the literature has rarely focused on the institutional factors that might underpin such structural transformation and productivity this paper aims to fill that gap drawing on an 8 year panel of 1 200 households in six key provinces it explores the impact of government land reallocations and formal land use certificates on agricultural productivity growth as well as the likelihood of households to exit from agriculture or send family members to the non farm sector it finds that land tenure insecurity measured by the history of past land reallocations discourages households from quitting agriculture the recognition of land rights through formal certificates encourages the temporary migration of rural labor both factors have a large impact on productivity at about 30 percent each mainly by encouraging market based land transfers a sustained increase in non agricultural opportunities will likely reinforce the importance of secure land tenure which is a precondition for successful structural transformation and continued economic attractiveness of rural areas

productivity and financial sector policies evidence from south east asia this paper uses primary data collected from the central bank reports to examine the influence of financial sector policies on the average productivity of capital in five south east asian economies the data include measures of repressionist policies encompassing interest rate controls directed credit programmes and reserve and liquidity requirements we use time series techniques to examine whether these policies have a statistically significant influence on the average productivity of capital conditioning on variables suggested by economic theory these policies are found to have a significant negative effect on productivity in most cases with the important exception of south korea for which we find significant positive effects

international capital flows identifying the gender dimension abstract this paper explores the main issues involved in examining the gender impact of international capital flows to developing countries it argues that at the macroeconomic level women lose more than men from slow and or unstable economic growth financial crises and meltdowns and even more so the longer and deeper the economic downturn because without a social security system the family and women have many additional burdens women should formulate an agenda of their own with respect to international monetary reform and some proposals are outlined in this respect including those involving capital controls

financial sector reforms in developing countries the indian experience this study is based on the premise that the success failure of financial sector reforms depends heavily on country specific factors and makes an attempt to examine these factors in the indian context the financial sector reforms analysed in this paper include the deregulation of interest rates increasing competition and foreign ownership and the introduction of financial supervision we argue that an economic rationale for a gradualist approach to financial reform is that it is stability enhancing furthermore we suggest that india s complex political economy has resulted in a gradual approach to reform and this approach has been successful along the dimension of banking stability