fiscal policy interventions at the zero lower bound we build on a new keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model to explore the macroeconomic consequences of fiscal expansionary shocks during the economic crisis of 2008 in the eurozone in this setting we find that the big four eurozone economies france germany italy and spain can effectively escape from their liquidity trap through fiscal policy interventions caused by government purchases we estimate the government spending multiplier to be above 1 8 when this policy is associated with a long term commitment to keeping the nominal interest rate at the zero lower bound as suggested by krugman 1998 notably the short term deficit effect on the budget balance can be offset five years after the implementation of a large spending program we also show that alternative policies with tax cuts that expand the supply do not appear to have the same power in the short run moreover we provide novel empirical evidence that a large government debt renders a government spending policy ineffective

measuring and assessing capacity utilization in the manufacturing sectors of nine oecd countries following a tradition established by cassels klein and hickman we employ the economic theory of cost and production and define economic capacity output as that output at which short and long run average total cost curves are tangent to one another capacity utilization cu rates are then computed as the ratio of actual to capacity output we implement this framework empirically by specifying and estimating a translog variable cost function for the manufacturing sectors of nine oecd countries we find that by the end of the historical sample the early 1980s pervasive and chronic excess capacity exists while the average cost consequence of excess capacity was relatively modest in the 1960s the burden increased considerably after opec i and after opec ii the premium was as large as 15 of average total costs we also find that electricity and fuel price increases had small impacts on capacity output relative to that from labor or capital finally we adjust conventional measures of multifactor productivity growth for changes in cu and find that the adjusted growth is larger after 1973 than that based on traditional procedures

the distributional effects of conventional monetary policy and quantitative easing evidence from an estimated dsge model abstract this paper compares the distributional effects of conventional monetary policy and quantitative easing qe within an estimated open economy dsge model of the euro area the model includes two groups of households i wealthier households who own financial assets and are able to smooth consumption over time and ii poorer households who only receive labor and transfer income and live hand to mouth we use the model to compare the impact of policy shocks on constructed measures of income and wealth inequality net disposable income net asset position and relative per capita income except for the short term expansionary conventional policy and qe shocks tend to mitigate income and wealth inequality between the two population groups in light of the coarse dichotomy of households that abstracts from richer income and wealth dynamics at the individual level the analysis emphasizes the functional distribution of income

why does the yield curve predict output and inflation the slope of the yield curve has been shown empirically to be a significant predictor of inflation and real economic activity but there is no standard theory as to why the relationship exists this article constructs an analytical rational expectations model to investigate the reasons for the empirical results the model suggests that the relationships are not structural but are instead influenced by the monetary policy regime however the yield curve should have predictive power for output and inflation in most circumstances various implications of the theoretical model are tested and confirmed empirically

discretionary monetary policy and the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates abstract ignoring the existence of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates one considerably understates the value of monetary commitment in new keynesian models a stochastic forward looking model with an occasionally binding lower bound calibrated to the u s economy suggests that low values for the natural rate of interest lead to sizeable output losses and deflation under discretionary monetary policy the fall in output and deflation are much larger than in the case with policy commitment and do not show up at all if the model abstracts from the existence of the lower bound the welfare losses of discretionary policy increase even further when inflation is partly determined by lagged inflation in the phillips curve these results emerge because private sector expectations and the discretionary policy response to these expectations reinforce each other and cause the lower bound to be reached much earlier than under commitment

who should buy long term bonds according to conventional wisdom long term bonds are appropriate for conservative long term investors this paper develops a model of optimal consumption and portfolio choice for infinite lived investors with recursive utility who face stochastic interest rates solves the model using an approximate analytical method and evaluates conventional wisdom as risk aversion increases the myopic component of risky asset demand disappears but the intertemporal hedging component does not conservative investors hold assets to hedge the risk that real interest rates will decline long term inflation indexed bonds are most suitable for this purpose but nominal bonds may also be used if inflation risk is low

the contribution of foreign direct investment to clean energy use carbon emissions and economic growth the paper investigates the contributions of foreign direct investment fdi net inflows to clean energy use carbon emissions and economic growth the paper employs cointegration tests to examine a long run equilibrium relationship among the variables and fixed effects models to examine the magnitude of fdi contributions to the other variables the paper analyzes panel data of 19 nations of the g20 from 1971 to 2009 the test results indicate that fdi has played an important role in economic growth for the g20 whereas it limits its impact on an increase in co2 emissions in the economies the research finds no compelling evidence of fdi link with clean energy use given the results the paper discusses fdi s potential role in achieving green growth goals

does the worldwide shift of fdi from manufacturing to services accelerate economic growth a gmm estimation study abstract we examine the effect of manufacturing and service fdi foreign direct investment on their own sector growth the spillover to the other sectors and the overall economy in host countries we identify significant sectoral and inter industry spillover effects with various data classifications and types of fdi flows evidence reveals that growth effect of manufacturing fdi operates by stimulating activity in its own manufacturing sector and is prevalent in latin america caribbean in europe central asia middle to low income countries and economies with large industry share a surge of service fdi is likely to spur growth in service industries but hurt activity in manufacturing industries financial service fdi enhances growth in south east asia and the pacific high income countries and service based economies by stimulating activity in both manufacturing and service sectors however nonfinancial service fdi drains resources and hurts manufacturing industry in the same group of countries we conclude that a shift from manufacturing to service fdi is likely to lead to deindustrialization in certain regions and types of economies if this shift is spearheaded by nonfinancial fdi

the macroeconomic effects of large scale asset purchase programmes the effects of asset purchase programs on macroeconomic variables are likely to be moderate we reach this conclusion after simulating the impact of the federal reserve s second large scale asset purchase program lsap ii in a dsge model enriched with a preferred habitat framework and estimated on u s data our simulations suggest that such a program increases gdp growth by less than half a percentage point although the effect on the level of gdp is very persistent the program s marginal contribution to infl ation is very small one key reason for our fi ndings is that we estimate a small degree of fi nancial market segmentation if we enrich the set of observables with a measure of long term debt the semi elasticity of the risk premium to the amount of debt in privatesector hands is substantially smaller than that reported in the recent empirical literature in this case our baseline estimates of the effects of lsap ii on the macroeconomy decrease by at least a factor of two throughout the analysis a commitment to an extended period at the zero lower bound for nominal interest rates increases the effects of asset purchase programs on gdp growth and infl ation

quasi fixed inputs in u s and japanese manufacturing a generalized leontief restricted cost function approach in this paper a generalized leontief variable cost function is develope d which permits analytical derivation of steady state levels of quasi fixed inputs and capacity output and does not require specification of a numeraire input this framework is then used to evaluate the fa ctor demand patterns of japanese and u s manufacturing based on bot h one quasi fixed capital input and two quasi fixed capital and la bor input specifications and both static and dynamic optimization t he findings provide evidence of considerable flexibility of demand re sponses in japan which may have contributed to japan s relatively st rong economic performance in the volatile 1970s copyright 1988 by mit press

railway de regulation a european efficiency comparison many european countries have sought to increase the efficiency of national railroad companies through a range of reforms including the separation of infrastructure and operations the creation of independent regulatory institutions and the provision of access to the network to third parties this document reports on a study undertaken to investigate a new world bank panel dataset that covers many european union eu countries over a period of 20 years the authors used this dataset to estimate the effects of reforms on railroad efficiency they compare the passenger traffic efficiency of national railroad companies by means of a production frontier model and then evaluate the effects of reforms on efficiency the data showed that reforms have efficiency increasing effects but the effect of reforms depends on sequencing the introduction of multiple reforms in a package has at best neutral effects but sequential reforms improve efficiency the authors also describe how they used the lisrel technique to test their data and show that their results are robust against potential problems of endogeneity

does fdi influence renewable energy consumption an analysis of sectoral fdi impact on renewable and non renewable industrial energy consumption this study examines the link between foreign direct investment fdi and energy demand fdi is a source of financing that allows businesses to grow at the same time fdi can be a source of innovation that promotes energy efficiency existing evidence on the impact of aggregate fdi inflows on energy consumption is scarce and inconclusive in the current study we disaggregate fdi inflows into mining manufacturing total services and financial services components and examine the impact of these fdi flows on renewable and non renewable industrial energy sources for 74 countries for the period 1985 2012 we employ a blundell bond dynamic panel estimator to control for endogeneity and omitted variable biases in our panels the results point broadly to an energy consumption reducing effect with respect to non renewable sources of energy and an energy consumption augmenting effects with respect to renewable energy we find that these effects vary in magnitude and significance by sectoral fdi

airline deregulation the cost pieces of the puzzle this paper analyzes cost changes in the u s airline industry in the pre and postderegulation era using a panel data set of airlines specifically it seeks to disentangle cost changes attributable to technical change economies of scale and density and input prices the authors estimate a purely general index of industry technical change and in turn analyze its determinants despite the slowing of productivity growth in the 1980s deregulation does appear to have stimulated technical change due to more efficient route structures copyright 1995 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

the economics of quality this paper develops a model of quality determination where the usual competitive equilibrium conditions hold the explicit form of quality considered is the wait required to obtain the product the analysis however is much more general being valid for products that have a characteristic z such that 1 demand is a function of price and a measure defined on z 2 costs are a function of output and the measure on z and 3 z is a function of output and capacity expected profit maximizing firms in equilibrium look like monopolistic competitors once constant quality is imposed however the perfect competitive results obtain

enabling innovations in energy access an african perspective abstract conventional energy technologies and deployment approaches cannot be relied upon to eliminate energy poverty in africa innovations in energy access are necessary previous attempts at introducing and scaling up innovative solutions do not sufficiently address dynamic and structural determinants of success this limits their actual performance as scalable drivers of innovations in technology policy and institutions using technological innovation systems theory we demonstrate a practical approach to assess the sustainability of innovations in energy access and develop a framework to guide energy policy makers clean energy entrepreneurs and energy development researchers

how should public pension plans invest how public pension plan assets should be invested is an important but unsettled question alicia h munnell and mauricio soto 2007 find that the share of state and local s l plan assets held in equities has grown over time largely in parallel with private sector practices from an average of about 40 percent in the late 1980s to about 70 percent in 2007 this exposure led to a loss of an estimated 1 trillion dollars following the decline of the stock market from october 2007 to october 2008 munnell kelly haverstick and jean pierre aubry 2008 nevertheless some observers endorse the standard practice of investing heavily in higher yielding but riskier equities reasoning that the higher average returns will reduce future required tax receipts and also help to reduce underfunding over time others advocate a more conservative approach that reduces the volatility of funding levels and the likelihood of severe shortfalls during economic downturns when government resources are already constrained e g lawrence n bader and jeremy gold 2007 the accounting rules for public pensions create a perverse incentive to invest in stocks since projected liabilities are discounted at the expected return on assets rather than at a rate that reflects the generally lower risk of liabilities investing the assets in the stock market leads to

monetary policy in exceptional times this paper describes the way in which the european central bank ecb the federal reserve and the bank of england conducted monetary policy since the beginning of the financial crisis in august 2007 we argue that both quantitative easing and the other non standard measures introduced by central banks that changed the composition of the asset side of their balance sheets so called qualitative easing acted mainly through their effects on interest rates and in particular on money market spreads rather than solely through quantity effects in terms of the money supply we perform a quantitative exercise on the euro area which estimates the effect of the reduction of these spreads to the broader economy michele lenza huw pill and lucrezia reichlin

the case against stock in public pension funds the case against equity investment by u s corporate pension funds has been well documented for a quarter century the public sector has ignored or dismissed that case because of differences between taxation and accounting between the private and public sectors the differing interests of shareholders and taxpayers and the presumption that public plans last forever despite these differences shifting public pension fund investments from equities to bonds adds value for local taxpayers it also minimizes the risks of intergenerational taxpayer conflicts undercharges to employees compensation packages for the value of the pensions employee claims on pension surplus and higher governmental borrowing costs

foreign direct investment and decoupling between energy and gross domestic product in developing countries on a sample of 20 developing countries we noticed a clear decline in the energy intensity as foreign direct investment increases the reason for that probably is the use of modern technologies that came with foreign direct investment i e a leapfrogging over the old fashioned traditional technologies in use in these countries

asymmetric impacts of the determinants of energy intensity in nigeria abstract this study analysed the problem of energy intensity determinants in nigeria based on the fully modified ols and canonical cointegration regressions these methods were preferred since they are able to deal effectively with the second order bias problems an often characteristics of time series data the impacts of price of crude oil fdi trade openness and industry structure are asymmetric which suggests the presence of structural effects in parameters the impact of crude oil price is negative but becomes stronger post 1989 saving 126 more in energy consumption relative to pre 1989 also the impacts of fdi and trade openness are negative and significant but become stronger post 1989 saving 11 2 and 0 8 more in energy consumption relative to the baseline respectively for every one percentage point increase in fdi and trade openness the impact of industry value added is positive and significant but weakens after 1989 consuming 1 8 less in energy for every one percentage point increase in industry value added relative to the baseline the energy reducing effect of industry value added post 1989 reflects improvements in the technical characteristics of industrial sector in nigeria last the result showed that the absorptive capability and industry characteristics of nigeria are important determinants of how fdi affects energy intensity this implies that a more integrated fdi programme considering the country characteristics rather than a one fit all programme is preferable

excess capacity a permanent characteristic of us airlines this paper examines the permanence of excess capacity in the us airline industry to avoid the problems with the standard engineering measure of capacity utilization load factor we define and measure capacity as an economic concept two measures of economic capacity utilization are then computed one a demand based measure and the other an output based measure of capacity utilization both measures share little in common with the standard engineering measure load factor and reveal some interesting attributes of airline travel demand this paper also provides interesting new insights into the role of deregulation and the costs of excess capacity during regulation specifically it is found that deregulation with the concomitant rationalization of route structures enabled airlines to move closer to their optimal levels of capacity and facilitated substantial improvements in capacity utilization and cost reductions over the period considered 1998 john wiley sons ltd

do urbanization and industrialization affect energy intensity in developing countries abstract against a backdrop of concerns about climate change peak oil and energy security issues reducing energy intensity is often advocated as a way to at least partially mitigate these impacts this study uses recently developed heterogeneous panel regression techniques like mean group estimators and common correlated effects estimators to model the impact that income urbanization and industrialization has on energy intensity for a panel of 76 developing countries in the long run a 1 increase in income reduces energy intensity by 0 45 to 0 35 long run industrialization elasticities are in the range 0 07 to 0 12 the impact of urbanization on energy intensity is mixed in specifications where the estimated coefficient on urbanization is statistically significant it is slightly larger than unity the implications of these results for energy policy are discussed

monetary policy and rational asset price bubbles i examine the impact of alternative monetary policy rules on a rational asset price bubble through the lens of an olg model with nominal rigidities a systematic increase in interest rates in response to a growing bubble is shown to enhance the uctuations in the latter

energy demand fdi nexus in africa do fdis induce dichotomous paths abstract this study investigates the nexus between energy demand and foreign direct investment fdi in africa using the simultaneous system generalized method of moments estimator and panel data that consists of 27 african countries over the period 2000 2014 specifically the study hypothesizes a non linear relationship between energy demand and fdi which imposes the assumption that conditions such as the level of technology absorptive capacity the level and stage of development and adjustment cost are likely to be heterogeneous across cross section and over time several empirical strategies such as changing the structure of the model set up using different sample groupings and applying different estimators with different assumptions were employed to substantiate the robustness nature of the hypothesized relationship the findings revealed a robust concave effect of fdi on energy consumption this suggests that there are learning and imitation experiences associated with fdi and these experiences produce dichotomous paths in terms of realizing the energy saving benefits of fdi

institutional and individual investors saving for old age this paper brings together the academic literature on individual and institutional investors in order to understand the nature of difficulties faced by them and set the background for the special issue this introductory article and the papers in the special issue contribute to the debate on how to support individuals in their savings commitments and investment decision making and whether and how institutional investors have fulfilled their role in supporting the development of the funded pension industry there are three main conclusions i individual investors are not ready for the role that has been assigned to them in the pension industry ii institutional investors are a long way short of establishing healthy relational contracts and trustworthy relationships with their clients and iii more effective regulation may be needed

forecasting with medium and large bayesian vars this paper is motivated by the recent interest in the use of bayesian vars for forecasting even in cases where the number of dependent variables is large in such cases factor methods have been traditionally used but recent work using a particular prior suggests that bayesian var methods can forecast better in this paper we consider a range of alternative priors which have been used with small vars discuss the issues which arise when they are used with medium and large vars and examine their forecast performance using a us macroeconomic dataset containing 168 variables we find that bayesian vars do tend to forecast better than factor methods and provide an extensive comparison of the strengths and weaknesses of various approaches typically we find that the simple minnesota prior forecasts well in medium and large vars which makes this prior attractive relative to computationally more demanding alternatives our empirical results show the importance of using forecast metrics based on the entire predictive density instead of relying solely on those based on point forecasts

factor substitution and procurement competition for forest resources in sweden the utilisation of forest resources in the energy sector has been increasing partly caused by economic policies introduced to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases this in turn has led to an in

the impact of financial development on energy consumption in emerging economies abstract financial development is often cited as a very important driver of economic growth in emerging economies and it is thus likely that financial development affects energy demand this study uses generalized method of moments estimation techniques to examine the impact of financial development on energy consumption in a sample of emerging countries several different measures of financial development are examined using a panel data set on 22 emerging countries covering the period 1990 2006 the empirical results show a positive and statistically significant relationship between financial development and energy consumption when financial development is measured using stock market variables like stock market capitalization to gdp stock market value traded to gdp and stock market turnover the implications of these results for energy policy are discussed

does higher economic and financial development lead to environmental degradation evidence from bric countries abstract a vast number of studies addressed the environmental degradation and economic development but not financial development moreover as argued by stern 2004 the rise and fall of the environmental kuznets curve world development 32 1419 1439 they present important econometric weaknesses using standard reduced form modeling approach and controlling for country specific unobserved heterogeneity we investigate the linkage between not only economic development and environmental quality but also the financial development panel data over period 1992 2004 is used we find that both economic and financial development are determinants of the environmental quality in bric economies we show that higher degree of economic and financial development decreases the environmental degradation our analysis suggests that financial liberalization and openness are essential factors for the co 2 reduction the adoption of policies directed to financial openness and liberalization to attract higher levels of r d related foreign direct investment might reduce the environmental degradation in countries under consideration in addition the robustness check trough the inclusion of us and japan does not alter our main findings

assessing the effects of unconventional monetary policy and low interest rates on pension fund risk incentives this study quantifies the effects of persistently low interest rates near to the zero lower bound and unconventional monetary policy on pension fund risk incentives in the united states using two structural vector autoregressive var models and a counterfactual scenario analysis the results show that monetary policy shocks as identified by changes in treasury yields following changes in the central bank s target interest rates lead to a substantial increase in pension funds allocation to equity assets notably the shift from bonds to equity securities is greater during the period where the us federal reserve launched unconventional monetary policy measures additional findings show a positive correlation between pension fund risk taking low interest rates and the decline in treasury yields across both well funded and underfunded public pension plans which is thus consistent with a structural risk shifting incentive

the federal reserve s large scale asset purchase programmes rationale and effects we provide empirical estimates of the effect of large scale asset purchases lsaps on longer term us treasury yields within a framework that allows for several transmission channels including the scarcity channel associated with the preferred habitat literature and the duration channel associated with interest rate risk we also clarify lsaps role in the broader context of historical monetary policy strategy results indicate that lsap style operations mainly impact longer term rates via the nominal term premium within that premium the response is predominantly embodied in the real term premium the scarcity and duration channels both seem to be of considerable importance

market response to policy initiatives during the global financial crisis abstract this paper examines the impact of macroeconomic and financial sector policy announcements in the united states the united kingdom the euro area and japan on interbank credit and liquidity risk premia during the recent crisis overall policy interventions were associated with a reduction in interbank risk premia most significantly for recapitalization programs by contrast decisions to bail out individual banks in an ad hoc manner or let them fail were accompanied by a significant rise in interbank risk premia most policy announcements had international spillovers these results are broadly robust to using alternative measures of financial distress and varying the size of the event window

longevity risk retirement savings and financial innovation abstract over the last couple of decades unprecedented increases in life expectancy have raised important concerns for retirement savings we solve a life cycle model with longevity risk which can be hedged through endogenous saving and retirement decisions we investigate the benefits of financial assets designed to hedge the shocks to survival probabilities when longevity risk is calibrated to match forward looking projections those benefits are substantial this lends support to the idea that such hedging should be pursued by defined benefit pension plans on behalf of their beneficiaries finally we draw implications for optimal security design

what does monetary policy do to long term interest rates at the zero lower bound this article uses a structural var with daily data to identify the effects of monetary policy shocks on various longer term interest rates since the federal funds rate has been stuck at the zero lower bound the var is identified using the assumption that monetary policy shocks are heteroskedastic monetary policy shocks have especially high variance on days of fomc meetings and certain speeches while there is otherwise nothing unusual about these days a complementary high frequency event study approach is also used i find that stimulative monetary policy shocks lower treasury and corporate bond yields but the effects die off fairly fast

quantitative easing and unconventional monetary policy an introduction this article assesses the impact of quantitative easing and other unconventional monetary policies followed by central banks in the wake of the financial crisis that began in 2007 we consider the implications of theoretical models for the effectiveness of asset purchases and look at the evidence from a range of empirical studies we also provide an overview of the contributions of the other articles in this feature

assessing the economy wide effects of quantitative easing this article examines the macroeconomic impact of the first round of quantitative easing qe by the bank of england we attempt to quantify the effects of these purchases by focusing on the impact of lower long term interest rates on the wider economy we use three different models to estimate the impact of qe on output and inflation a large bayesian vector autoregression var a change point structural var and a time varying parameter var our estimates suggest that qe may have had a peak effect on the level of real gdp of around and a peak effect on annual cpi inflation of about points