pathways to a low carbon economy estimations on macroeconomic costs and potential of carbon emission abatement in beijing abstract developing reliable frameworks to estimate the potential of co2 emission abatement and its associated costs merits urgent attention this study aims to estimate the potential as well as macroeconomic costs of co2 emission abatement in beijing using the industrial economy as the basis multiobjective programming and genetic algorithm are integrated into the input output analysis several important findings have been gathered in the study 1 the abatement cost varies between 259 97 and 535 46 per ton at different rates of economic growth 2 a reinforced emission abatement target can induce higher macroeconomic costs 3 an inverse u shaped relationship between co2 reduction cost and gdp growth rate was found when gdp growth rate is above the threshold value of 7 marginal abatement costs decrease rapidly in parallel with gdp growth when the gdp growth rate is below 7 the marginal abatement cost increases significantly with economic growth 4 industries that have the highest and least potential of abatement have been identified for effectively reducing co2 emissions beijing needs to promote economic restructuring to maximize the potential of emission abatement and also fulfil the emission abatement target in a cost effective way this paper provides a quantitative approach to rationalize the policy design process of enacting emission targets and recommends cost effective abatement strategies

experimental comparison of impact of auction format on carbon allowance market abstract carbon allowances auctions are a good way to achieve the carbon allowance allocations under international agreements to address global climate change based on an economic experiment this paper compares three possible carbon allowance auction formats uniform price auction discriminatory price auction and english clock auction with heterogeneous bidders coal power plants and gas power plants from four perspectives carbon price auction efficiency demand withholding and fluctuations in power supplies possibilities of collusion among bidders and impacts of allowance banking and penalty price on bidders behaviors under different auction formats are also examined the results show that 1 when there are relatively more bidders and there are no obvious communications between them despite there being some tacit collusion efficiency of english clock auction is greater than the other two formats 2 when there are relatively fewer bidders and there are obvious communications between them explicit collusions are observed under english clock auction in this case discriminatory price auction helps prevent collusion to some extents 3 in the banking scenario more speculations are observed while penalty price exacerbates price volatility

a multi criteria decision analysis model for carbon emission quota allocation in china s east coastal areas efficiency and equity abstract the allocation of carbon emission quotas is recognized as a fundamental and critical step towards the establishment of an effective nationwide carbon emissions trading cet market in china this paper aims to examine the quota allocation pertaining to china s east coastal areas these regions are pioneers in reformation and the domestic heavy emitters in this paper a multi criteria decision analysis model is proposed this model is based on the principles of efficiency and equity in order to reflect the true efficiency of carbon emissions a weighted russell direction distance model is employed three criteria namely capacity responsibility and potential are used to evaluate the degrees of equity furthermore different situations are set to evaluate the related indicators the results indicate the following 1 industrial provinces have less carbon emission quota increments 2 the yangtze river delta economic zone has notably improved energy efficiency and future quota increments correspond with the zone s current carbon emissions 3 circum bohai sea economic zone will be a major buyer of carbon emission quotas while pan pearl river delta economic zone currently receives surplus quota 4 the overall allocation of quotas converts from uneven to even as a result of gdp growth these results provide a reference for collaborative regional reductions in carbon emissions and for the construction of a cet market

credit rationing and non price loan terms a re examination abstract this paper develops the implications of heterogeneous bank loans for borrower and lender behaviour in a competitive bank loan market by considering the own funds loan ratio as the non price loan term it is shown that in equilibrium each bank will ration its loan to borrowers by providing them with the smaller loan and requiring the higher own funds loan ration than they would desire at the equilibrium loan rate moreover restrictive monetary policy that raises the opportunity cost of granting loans decreases the loan size and increases the own funds loan ratio but its effect on the loan rate and credit rationing remains ambiguous thus credit rationing may decrease as a result of restrictive monetary policy

regional allocation of carbon emission quotas in china evidence from the shapley value method abstract it is an important task for china to allocate carbon emission quotas among regions so as to realize its carbon reduction targets and establish the national cap and trade carbon market meanwhile it is supposed to be cost effective to jointly reduce china s carbon emissions through some collaborative activities among regions then a natural question is how to allocate the quotas among regions in light of the collaboration for this purpose the shapley value method is adopted and the results show that first the regions with higher gdp higher carbon outflow and higher carbon reduction connection should be allocated more carbon quotas moreover when the collaboration is considered the optimal allocation of carbon quotas among regions will change significantly compared to the basic quotas by the entropy method and the central region is allocated the largest proportion of carbon quota among regions which indicates its largest radiation effect besides the collaboration between the central region and northern coast region and that between the central region and the eastern region should be paid close attention these results may provide insightful support for decision makers to promote collaborative carbon reduction and allocate carbon quotas in china

an equivalent marginal cost pricing model for the district heating market district heating pricing is a core element in reforming the heating market existing district heating pricing methods such as the cost plus pricing method and the conventional marginal cost pricing method cannot simultaneously provide both high efficiency and sufficient investment cost return to solve this problem the paper presents a new pricing model namely equivalent marginal cost pricing emcp model which is based on the eve pricing theory and the unique characteristics of heat products and district heating the emcp model uses exergy as the measurement of heating product value and places products from different district heating regions into the same competition platform in the proposed model the return on investment cost is closely related to the quoted cost and within the limitations of the heating capacity cost reference and the maximum compensated shadow capacity cost both lower and higher price speculations of heat producers are restricted simulation results show that the model can guide heat producers to bid according to their production costs and to provide reasonable returns on investment which contributes to stimulate the role of price leverage and to promote the optimal allocation of heat resources

the impact of china s carbon allowance allocation rules on the product prices and emission reduction behaviors of ets covered enterprises abstract it is an important task for china to allocate carbon emission allowance to realize its carbon reduction target and establish carbon trading market china has designed several allocation rules within seven pilot regions what influence those rules may cause is closely related with the enthusiasm of emission trading scheme ets covered enterprises participation in carbon market and more importantly with the mechanism design and sustainable development of carbon market for this purpose the multi stage profit model is developed to analyze the ets covered enterprises product prices and emission reduction behaviors under different allocation rules the results show that first under the rules of grandfathering self declaration and auctioning when deciding the optimal product price and optimal carbon emission reduction those enterprises may focus on maximizing current stage profit however under the rule of benchmarking those enterprises may care more about the impact of current decisions on the profit in next stage second the optimal product price policy is positively correlated with the price of the same kind products consumers low carbon awareness and government subsidy finally along with the increase of carbon price consumers low carbon awareness and government subsidy and the decrease of carbon emission cap those enterprises tend to reduce carbon emissions

cost based transfer pricing under r d risk aversion in an integrated supply chain abstract this paper examines the economic role of transfer pricing for a vertically integrated supply chain when a risk averse production division manager faces uncertainty on the outcomes from r d investment in particular we compare two representative cost based transfer pricing methods full cost and variable cost pricing we construct an economic model based on the assumption that r d investment reduces the expected fixed costs of a production factor as well as the variable production costs we show that a firm s profit under full cost transfer pricing is greater than that under variable cost transfer pricing under certainty contrary to this benchmark result variable cost pricing becomes more profitable than full cost pricing when the risk averse manager bears relatively high risk

european emission trading scheme and competitiveness a case study on the iron and steel industry abstract we quantify the impact of the european emission trading scheme ets on the two dimensions of competitiveness production and profitability for the iron and steel industry among those covered by the scheme this sector is one of the most exposed since it is both highly co 2 intensive and relatively open to international trade we also examine the robustness of these results to various assumptions marginal abatement cost curve trade and demand elasticities as well as pass through rates and updating of allocation rules of which the latter two are scarcely debated we conclude that for this sector competitiveness losses are small we prove this conclusion to be robust hence arguments against tightening the environmental stringency of the ets in phase ii are not justified on grounds of competitiveness loss our systematic sensitivity analysis allows us to identify the important assumptions for each output variable it turns out that pass through rates and updating rules are significant despite being often implicit and least debated in existing analyses

carbon emissions trading scheme exploration in china a multi agent based model abstract to develop a low carbon economy china launched seven pilot programs for carbon emissions trading cet in 2011 and plans to establish a nationwide cet mechanism in 2015 this paper formulated a multi agent based model to investigate the impacts of different cet designs in order to find the most appropriate one for china the proposed bottom up model includes all main economic agents in a general equilibrium framework the simulation results indicate that 1 cet would effectively reduce carbon emissions with a certain negative impact on the economy 2 as for allowance allocation the grandfathering rule is relatively moderate while the benchmarking rule is more aggressive 3 as for the carbon price when the price level in the secondary cet market is regulated to be around rmb 40 per metric ton a satisfactory emission mitigation effect can be obtained 4 the penalty rate is suggested to be carefully designed to balance the economy development and mitigation effect and 5 subsidy policy for energy technology improvement can effectively reduce carbon emissions without an additional negative impact on the economy the results also indicate that the proposed novel model is a promising tool for cet policy making and analyses

carbon allowance auction design of china s emissions trading scheme a multi agent based approach in this paper a multi agent based ets simulation model is proposed for carbon allowance auction design in china in the proposed model two main agents i e the government the ets implementer and the firms in different sectors the ets targets are considered under the ets policy all agents make various decisions individually according to their own goals and interact with each other through three main markets the commodity market the primary carbon auction market and the secondary carbon trading market different popular auction designs are introduced into the ets formulation to offer helpful insights into china s ets design 1 generally the ets would lead to positive effects on china s carbon mitigation and energy structure improvement but a negative impact on economy 2 as for auction forms the uniform price design is relatively moderate while the discriminative price design is quite aggressive in both economic damage and emissions reduction 3 as for carbon price the uniform price auction might generate a slightly higher market clearing price than the discriminative price auction and the prices under two auction rules fluctuate about rmb 40 per metric ton 4 as for carbon cap the total allowances in the carbon auction market should be carefully set to well balance economic growth and mitigation effect

an emerging equilibrium in the eu emissions trading scheme abstract the european union s emissions trading scheme ets is the key policy instrument of the european commission s climate change program aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions to eight percent below 1990 levels by 2012 a critically important element of the eu ets is the establishment of a market determined price for eu allowances this article examines the extent to which several theoretically founded factors including economic growth energy prices and weather conditions determine the expected prices of the european union co 2 allowances during the 2005 through to the 2009 period the novel aspect of our study is that we examine heavily traded futures instruments that have an expiry date in phase 2 of the eu ets our study adopts both static and recursive versions of the johansen multivariate cointegration likelihood ratio test as well as a variation on this test with a view to controlling for time varying volatility effects our results are indicative of a new pricing regime emerging in phase 2 and point to a maturing market driven by the fundamentals these results are valuable both for traders of eu allowances and for those policy makers seeking to improve the design of the european union ets

determinants of the corporate decision to capitalize interest abstract until 1974 firms could choose within gaap to capitalize or expense interest costs associated with capital expenditures the predominant practice had been to treat interest as a period expense however in 1974 the securities and exchange commission imposed a moratorium on further adoption of interest capitalization by non regulated firms this study empirically examines economic factors potentially influencing firms decisions to expense or capitalize interest prior to the sec moratorium we hypothesize that the choice may be affected by 1 the existence of management compensation agreements tied to reported earnings 2 debt covenant constraints and 3 the political costs for some firms of reporting higher earnings when compared to the control group our findings are that 1 the frequency of explicit management compensation packages was not greater for the interest capitalization group 2 firms with financial ratios closer to likely debt agreement constraints on dividends interest coverage and leverage tended to elect interest capitalization and 3 other than the largest firms in the politically sensitive petroleum refining industry the larger firms were more likely to capitalize interest

business perspective to the national greenhouse gases emissions trading scheme a survey of cement companies in china abstract applying data gathered from 105 cement companies this paper gives an analysis of how business views the upcoming national greenhouse gases emissions trading scheme in china despite a good overall understanding the surveyed companies have not been able to prepare properly for the implementation of this policy they still need training to enhance their related capacity probably due to strict competition it is difficult for cement companies to pass the policy cost on to their clients the sampled companies intend to make self mitigation efforts for compliance it is highly likely that cement companies would mitigate emissions themselves if the carbon price is higher than 108 of the self abatement cost the surveyed cement companies anticipate an increase in the carbon price in china from about 35 yuan t co2 in 2020 to 60 yuan t co2 in 2025 and 90 yuan t co2 by 2030 the analysis provides reference for the smooth introduction and effective implementation of national carbon market in china from the business viewpoint

designing an emissions trading scheme for china with a dynamic computable general equilibrium model abstract to fulfill its copenhagen pledges to control carbon emissions and mitigate climate change china plans to establish a nationwide emissions trading scheme ets in 2016 this paper develops a multi sector dynamic computable general equilibrium model with an ets module to study the appropriate ets policy design including a carbon cap permit allocation and supplementary policies e g penalty policies and subsidy policies the main results are as follows 1 to achieve china s copenhagen pledge the equilibrium nationwide carbon price is observed to be between 36 and 40 rmb yuan per metric ton 2 the ets policy has a cost effective mitigation effect by improving china s production and energy structures with relatively little economic harm 3 various ets sub policies should be carefully designed to balance economic growth and carbon mitigation in particular the carbon cap should be set according to china s copenhagen pledge a relatively large distribution ratio of free permits the output based grandfathering rule for free permits a penalty price on illegitimate emissions slightly above the carbon price and a sufficient subsidy from ets revenue are strongly recommended in the early stages to avoid significant economic loss these designs can be adjusted in later stages to enhance the mitigation effect

tradeable carbon permit auctions how and why to auction not grandfather abstract an auction of carbon permits is the best way to achieve domestic carbon caps designed to limit global climate change to minimize administrative costs permits would be required at the level of oil refineries natural gas pipe lines natural gas liquid sellers and coal processing plants to maximize liquidity in secondary markets permits would be fully tradable and bankable the government would conduct quarterly auctions a standard ascending clock auction in which price is gradually raised until there is no excess demand would provide reliable price discovery an auction is preferred to grandfathering giving companies permits based on historical output or emissions because it allows reduced tax distortions provides more flexibility in distribution of costs provides greater incentives for innovation and reduces the need for politically contentious arguments over the allocation of rents

a multiscale analysis for carbon price drivers abstract this study proposes a multiscale analysis model to explore and identify the carbon price drivers at different timescales by introducing the latest multivariate empirical mode decomposition carbon price and its potential drivers are decomposed into several groups of simple modes with specific economic meanings the cointegration techniques error correction model and newey west estimator are combined to capture the carbon price drivers at similar timescales illustrated by the samples of the european union emissions trading system from 2009 to 2016 a few interesting results can be found that at the original data level among the three most important drivers of carbon price electricity price and stock index show positive impacts while coal price shows a negative impact at different timescales the effects of electricity and stock index appear comparatively earlier which drive carbon price from the short timescales and continue to strengthen however the impacts of coal oil and gas prices are lagging behind which respectively drive the carbon price at the medium and long timescales

the effects of debt covenants and political costs on the choice of accounting methods the case of accounting for r d costs abstract until 1974 firms could capitalize or expense all or part of their research and development r d costs managerial choice between these two alternatives is hypothesized to be affected by the existence of debt covenants which employ accounting numbers relating to leverage interest coverage and ability to pay dividends in addition the use of public versus private debt is hypothesized to affect the accounting choice due to differential renegotiation costs lastly a political cost hypothesis is tested this study uses a multivariate statistical technique the generalized jackknife the results suggest that firms which capitalized r d costs were more highly levered used more public debt were closer to dividend restrictions and were smaller than firms which expensed r d costs

the impact on electric power industry under the implementation of national carbon trading market in china a dynamic cge analysis abstract as the largest carbon emissions source sector electric power industry is undoubtedly a principal part of the carbon trading market in china aimed at researching the impact on power industry beyond establishing the national carbon trading market a dynamic computable general equilibrium cge model embedded with carbon trading block is introduced in this paper subsequently we design 8 scenarios of which illustrate corresponding industry carbon emissions baselines and free quotas ratios the main simulation results are as follows the implementation of carbon emissions trading would bring a certain negative impact on the overall economy real gdp will be reduced by about 0 08 0 52 in 2030 though low free quotas ratio will cause a relatively high loss of gdp this negative impact would be eliminated in the long run in addition carbon emissions trading would also promote the clean production of electricity indeed the electric power industry would reach carbon emissions peak around 2020 relative to scenarios without carbon trading carbon emissions would reduce more than 1000 million tons in 2030 when industry carbon emissions baseline declines at an annual rate of 2 consequently the carbon market can achieve a more significant reduction in carbon emissions with the influencing of quotas fully auctioned scenario

allocation of carbon permits within a country a general equilibrium analysis of the united kingdom abstract the kyoto agreement includes international trade in carbon permits from 2008 we have used a cge model to evaluate methods of allocating permits within the uk auctioning is broadly similar to a carbon tax with revenues recycled to reduce other distortions grandfathering some permits free to large firms would mean a loss of recycling and possibly give windfall profits to foreigners alternatively regularly revised allocation using best practice estimates would be similar to recycling revenue as an output subsidy such a system could allow much of the potential double dividend to be realised though an auction system might still be preferable

an empirical examination of debt covenant restrictions and accounting related debt proxies abstract prior studies of discretionary accounting choices have generally relied on one or more proxy variables to measure closeness to debt covenant restrictions without actually examining the existence or extent of restrictive covenants this study tests the validity of the most commonly used proxy the debt equity ratio by examining its relation to actual debt covenant restrictions for a random sample of u s firms the results indicate that several versions of the debt equity ratio capture the existence and tightness of retained earnings restrictionsand the existence of net tangible asset and working capital restrictions but are unrelated to four other covenant restrictions

accounting for interest by real estate developers this paper investigates accounting for interest by australian real estate developers it argues that management s choice of accounting technique is the result of ex ante contracting to prevent management opportunistic behavior rather than a manifestation of opportunistic behavior per se the argument provides a richer description of accounting choice and explains why in australia leverage and the accounting method choice are correlated in the absence of bond covenants the argument also explains why inconsistent with political cost arguments larger firms are more likely to capitalize than expense interest

low carbon transition in a distributed energy system regulated by localized energy markets abstract low carbon transition becomes an urgent need of modern societies for energy conservation and environmental protection the purpose of this work is to evaluate the roles of market regulation energy consumption and energy capacity in low carbon transition for distributed energy systems through an agent based simulation a set of agent behavioral rules for the competition of high carbon and low carbon energies mimics the local dynamics of the energy production of distributed energy systems and the energy consumption of industrial firms under the impact of energy market fluctuation simulation results show that under the condition of increased energy capacities with a positive feedback between supply and demand low carbon transition can be facilitated by the combination of market adjustment favoring low carbon energies and the policy adjustment for low energy consumptions by contrast with low energy capacities and high energy consumptions transitions from high carbon economy to low carbon economy inevitably render a catastrophic economic depression policy implications for different situations of countries are drawn regarding the regulation of localized energy markets for restricting the supply of high carbon energy while cultivating the demand for low carbon energy and the improvement on energy saving energy production efficiency and storage capacity

how china s current carbon trading policy affects carbon price an investigation of the shanghai emission trading scheme pilot abstract to better establish a unified carbon market in china this study evaluates the effect of current carbon trading policy and further investigates the relationship between such policy that is published during the second phase of shanghai environment and energy exchange seee and shanghai emission allowance shea price we aim to analyze whether these policies can improve the operation efficiency of current carbon market by the mean reversion test cox ingersoll ross cir model and event study method we first analyze the potential price discovery function of shea products thereby describing the transmission channel of current policy to shea price then we examine the effect of carbon policies published in different periods on their corresponding shea price by the auto correlation test and cir simulation we find that 3 4 of all auto correlation values are less than 0 after apr 2017 and the minimum cumulative error is 31 3792 under the supply and demand channel these findings imply that shea price has the discovery function at the middle and end of trading period and the current policy affects shea price through its effect on the fundamentals of supply and demand further more than 60 of all r values r value that reflects the response of price to policy are less than 1 which implies that the published policy will improves future shea price accordingly we argue that seee belongs to a policy oriented market and the change of carbon price is closely related to emission allocation policies in this case china s government should further push forward the smooth operation of current carbon market by the aid of incentive policy in the coming period