out of the wallet and into the purse using micro data to test income pooling this paper uses an exogenous change in the intrahousehold distribution of income provided by a change in united kingdom family allowance policy to test the income pooling hypothesis implied by unitary household models expenditure shares are estimated for a wide range of goods using household level data shifts in expenditure shares suggest that children and mothers benefited at the expense of fathers when this policy change shifted income within households from men to women similar shifts are not found among married couple households with no children this paper refutes income pooling and confirms and extends results in lundberg pollak and wales 1997

understanding differences in household financial wealth between the united states and great britain in this paper we describe the household wealth distribution in the united states and united kingdom over the past two decades and compare both wealth inequality and the form in which wealth is held unconditionally there are large differences in financial wealth between the two countries at the top fifth of the wealth distribution even after controlling for age and income differences between the two countries we show that the median u s household accumulates more financial wealth than their united kingdom counterpart does we explore a number of alternative reasons for these differences and reject some explanations as implausible some of the observed differences are due to what we refer to as initial conditions in particular previously high rates of corporate equity ownership in the u s and housing ownership among young british households this only provides a partial explanation however among other explanations are differences in the annuitization of retirement incomes and in the amount of wealth held in the form of housing equity in the first case forced and voluntary annuitization in the united kingdom mean older households face considerably less longevity risk in the second higher house price volatility in the united kingdom can create an incentive as shown banks blundell and smith 2002 used from stock market equity earlier in the life cycle

trade policy making in a small island economy the wto review of the maldives the purpose of this paper is to examine trade policy regime and trade related development issues in the maldives on the basis of the trade policy review maldives 2003 of the wto the key theme of the paper is that given the narrow resource base and small domestic market openness to foreign trade and investment remains the natural policy choice for a small developing economy like the maldives since the late 1980s the maldivian government has made considerable progress in implementing policy reforms driven by this conviction however the reform process is far from complete high import tariffs maintained predominantly on revenue considerations a large direct role played by the public sector in foreign trade and some key sectors of the economy lack of transparency in duty concessions and other investment incentives failure to incorporate environmental concerns as part of the national development policy and delays in meeting reform commitments under the wto are among the key items of the unfinished reform agenda

how business is done in the developing world deals versus rules what happens in the developing world when stringent regulations characterizing the investment climate meet weak government willingness or capability to enforce those regulations how is business actually done the doing business project surveys experts concerning the legally required time and costs of regulatory compliance for various aspects of private enterprise starting a firm dealing with construction permits trading across borders paying taxes getting credit enforcing contracts and so on around the world the world bank s firm level enterprise surveys around the world ask managers at a wide array of firms about their business including questions about how long it took to go through various processes like obtaining an operating license or a construction permit or bringing in imports this paper compares the results of three broadly comparable indicators from the doing business and enterprise surveys overall we find that the estimate of legally required time for firms to complete a certain legal and regulatory process provided by the doing business survey does not summarize even modestly well the experience of firms as reported by the enterprise surveys when strict de jure regulation and high rates of taxation meet weak governmental capabilities for implementation and enforcement we argue that researchers and policymakers should stop thinking about regulations as creating rules to be followed but rather as creating a space in which deals of various kinds are possible

saving puzzles and saving policies in the united states in the past two decades the widely reported personal saving rate in the united states has dropped from double digits to below zero first we attempt to account for the decline in the national income and product accounts nipa saving rate the macroeconomic literature suggests that 40 50 per cent of the drop since 1988 can be attributed to households spending stock market capital gains another 30 per cent is accounting transfers from personal saving into government and corporate saving because of the way pensions and capital gains taxes are treated in the nipa second while nipa saving measures are well suited to measuring the supply of new funds for investment and capital accumulation it is not clear that they should be the target of government saving policies finally we emphasize that the nipa saving rate is not useful in judging whether households are preparing for retirement or other contingencies many households have accumulated significant wealth primarily through retirement saving vehicles and capital gains even as the saving rate slid there remains a segment of the population who save little and whose behaviour appears untouched either by the stock market boom or the slide in personal saving we explore reasons and policy options for their puzzling low saving rate copyright 2001 oxford university press

consumer demand and the life cycle allocation of household expenditures the purpose of this paper is to estimate the parameters of household preferences that determine the allocation of goods within the period and over the life cycle using micro data in doing so the authors are able to identify important effects of demographics labor market status and other household characteristics on the intertemporal allocation of expenditure they test the validity of the life cycle model using excess sensitivity tests and find that controlling for demographics and labor market status variables can largely explain the excess sensitivity of consumption to anticipated changes in income

the hyperbolic consumption model calibration simulation and empirical evaluation ur preferences for the long run tend to conflict with our short run behavior when planning for the long run we intend to meet our deadlines exercise regularly and eat healthfully but in the short run we have little interest in revising manuscripts jogging on the stairmaster and skipping the chocolate souffleala mode delay of gratification is a nice long term goal but instant gratification is disconcertingly tempting this gap between long run intentions and short run actions is apparent across a wide range of behaviors including saving choices a 1997 survey found that 76 percent of respondents believe they should be saving more for retirement looking only at respondents who believed they were at an age where you should be seriously saving already the survey found that 55 percent reported being behind in their savings and only 6 percent reported being ahead farkas and johnson 1997 the report on the survey concluded t he gaps between people s atti tudes intentions and behavior are troubling and threaten increased insecurity and dissatisfaction for people when they retire americans are simply not doing what logic and their own reasoning suggests they should be doing a 1993 luntz webber merrill lynch survey found similar answers when baby boomers were asked what percentage of your annual household income do you think you should save for retirement and what percentage of your annual

time inconsistent preferences and social security in this paper we examine the role of social security in an economy populated by overlapping generations of individuals with time inconsistent preferences who face mortality risk individual income risk and borrowing constraints we find that unfunded social security lowers the capital stock output and consumption for consumers with time consistent or time inconsistent preferences however it may raise or lower welfare depending on the strength of time inconsistency

valuing lost home production of dual earner couples using a life cycle model in which women divide their time between home and market work we establish a link between retirement wealth and the value of forgone home production we use data from the health and retirement study to estimate the model s parameters and adjust the growth rate of gdp to reflect reductions in non market output we find that the value of forgone home production is modest about 25 percent of women s measured earnings

globalization and rural poverty as is common in most contentious public debates different people mean different things by globalization some interpret it to mean the global reach of new technology and capital movements some refer to outsourcing by domestic companies in rich countries others protest against the tentacles of corporate capitalism or us hegemony economic military or cultural in this chapter i shall limit myself to interpreting globalization simply as openness to foreign trade and long term capital flows i shall ignore here the important issues arising from the devastation caused to fragile economies by billions of dollars of volatile short term capital stampeding around the globe in herd like movements or the substantial poverty reducing potential of international unskilled labour flows from poor to rich countries even if allowed in temporary and regulated doses

the retirement consumption puzzle a marital bargaining approach abstract evidence from several countries reveals a substantial drop in household consumption around the age of retirement that is difficult to explain with life cycle models using food consumption data from more than 550 households from the panel study of income dynamics for the years 1979 1986 and 1989 1992 we find that married couple households decrease their expenditures on both food consumed at home and away from home by about 9 following the retirement of the male household head no significant decrease in consumption is found for single households either in a sample of males or a pooled sample of single males and females these results are consistent with a model of marital bargaining in which wives prefer to save more than their husbands do to support an expected longer retirement period and relative control over household decisions is affected by control over market income the pattern of the consumption decline which is increasing in the age gap between husband and wife lends further support to this interpretation

is there a retirement savings puzzle in this paper we ask whether households are saving enough for their retirement we use data on income expenditure and expenditure components to analyse patterns of behaviour at and around the time of retirement for successive date of birth cohorts we compare periods of unemployment to periods of retirement and separate expenditures into categories reflecting work related expenditures basic necessities and other goods we find that income typically falls by more at unemployment than retirement but the reverse is true for expenditure we observe falls in expenditure at retirement for all expenditure categories using a stochastic life cycle model including mortality rates we assess the anticipated impact of retirement on consumption against that of unemployment the inter relationship between goods and leisure explains a large part of the persistent fall in expenditure at retirement we argue that the only way in which the life cycle hypothesis could be reconciled with the remaining unanticipated dip in consumption would be with the systematic arrival of unexpected adverse information at the time of retirement

cohort and target age effects on subjective survival probabilities implications for models of the retirement phase abstract subjective survival scaling factors are often estimated from one observation of life expectancy and treated as constant to any target age using new survey data on subjective survival probabilities we estimate a model incorporating cohort and target age varying beliefs in scaling factors both cohort age and target age matter respondents are pessimistic about overall life expectancy but optimistic about survival at advanced ages and older respondents are more optimistic than younger we propose a new theoretical model incorporating cohort and target age varying beliefs and illustrate their effects on the perceived value of annuities and on retirement phase consumption plans

the wealth age relation among the aged aged people face the problem of allocating over the rest of their lifetimes the wealth that they have accumulated during their working years this problem is fairly complex because they are uncertain about the dates of their death and because they may wish to use their wealth to finance general consumption or hold it to meet emergencies leave estates or maintain power or status whether skilled at dynamic programming or not aged people effectively do make these decisions what are the results some studies of the entire lifetime pattern of saving and wealth tend to support the simple life cycle model in which the aged use up their wealth to help finance consumption harold lydall for example found saving rates to increase and then decrease with age in the whole population and to be negative for the group aged 65 and over guarded support for the theory was found by franco modigliani and albert ando in britain and by dorothy projector in the united states more recently a f shorrocks examined the lifetime pattern of wealth holding in estate tax data for a single cohort and found the hump pattern that is characteristic of life cycle saving other evidence on wealth holding runs contrary to this however in a study of estate tax returns in washington d c james d smith found that wealth increased with age among the aged after controlling for other demographic variables examining national estate tax data john brittain found wealth to increase with age in the united states and a b atkinson and a j harrison reported the same pattern in england and wales in a sample of tiaa annuity recipients analyzed by james mulanaphy over half reported that their total savings had increased during retirement and another quarter reported that their savings had remained about the same in this paper i examine wealth holding patterns among aged married couples using survey data representing the entire aged population of the united states in 1968 the statistical analysis serves as a test of the hypothesis that emerges from life cycle theory and provides some further exploration into the economic behavior of the aged i find that the aged tend to increase their wealth over time

differentiated products and evasion of import tariffs emerging literature has demonstrated some unique characteristics of trade in differentiated products this paper contributes to the literature by postulating that differentiated products may be subject to greater tariff evasion due to the difficulties associated with assessing their quality and price using product level data on trade between germany and 10 eastern european countries during 1992 2003 the authors find empirical support for this hypothesis they show that the trade gap defined as the discrepancy between the value of exports reported by germany and the value of imports from germany reported by the importing country is positively related to the level of tariff in 8 out of 10 countries further the authors show that the responsiveness of the trade gap to the tariff level is greater for differentiated products than for homogeneous goods a one percentage point increase in the tariff rate is associated with a 0 6 percent increase in the trade gap in the case of homogeneous products and a 2 1 percent increase in the case of differentiated products finally the data indicate that greater tariff evasion observed for differentiated products tends to take place through misrepresentation of the import prices

measuring protection mission impossible abstract there seems to be some confusion between openness and protection measures in the international trade literature the aim of this paper is to bring together the state of the art in quantifying trade policy measures and for this reason we focus on the extent of the protection granted by policies rather than on the degree of openness of the economy given the considerable amount of literature that deals with these issues we will limit our review as follows on the one hand we focus on trade policies implemented at the border and therefore do not consider all the other possible public interventions influencing trade flows on the other hand we only take into account indexes that explicitly adopt a metric expressed in a scalar aggregate tariff and quota equivalent measures or an index in a closed interval we distinguish between indexes that aggregate across products same barrier for more products and indexes that aggregate across instruments more barriers for the same product finally in order to classify the large number of indexes covered in our review we propose a typology based on three categories incidence outcome and equivalence

regionalism and the bias against agriculture in less developed countries panel survey data play a crucial role in producing estimates on welfare dynamics as well as insights into transformation processes in developing economies panel survey data are indispensable for effective policy advice for poverty reduction and growth fielding and maintaining a good quality panel survey requires investment in financial and technical resources as well as careful planning especially in developing countries statistical techniques can also be employed to produce estimates on poverty dynamics as an alternative methodology but a new hybrid approach can combine the advantages of both methods

deconstructing life cycle expenditure we revisit two well known facts regarding life cycle expenditures the hump shaped profile of nondurable expenditures and the increase in cross household consumption inequality we document that the behavior of total nondurables masks surprising heterogeneity in the life cycle profile of individual consumption subcomponents we provide evidence that the categories driving life cycle consumption either are inputs into market work or are amenable to home production using a quantitative model we document that the disaggregated life cycle consumption profiles imply a level of uninsurable permanent income risk that is substantially lower than that implied by a model using a composite consumption good

where modern macroeconomics went wrong this paper provides a critique of the dsge models that have come to dominate macroeconomics during the past quarter century it argues that at the heart of the failure were the wrong microfoundations which failed to incorporate key aspects of economic behaviour e g incorporating insights from information economics and behavioural economics inadequate modelling of the financial sector meant they were ill suited for predicting or responding to a financial crisis and a reliance on representative agent models meant they were ill suited for analysing either the role of distribution in fluctuations and crises or the consequences of fluctuations on inequality the paper proposes alternative benchmark models that may be more useful both in understanding deep downturns and responding to them

risk pooling precautionary saving and consumption growth in this paper we model the evolution of income risk and consumption growth we decompose the time series innovation of the income process into its common and cohort specific components from these we compute conditional variances which are used as separate risk terms in a consumption growth equation using a long series of british household data we exploit the time series variation to identify precautionary saving effects and find strong evidence of their importance specifically after allowing for demographic and labour market status there is an independent role for income risk in explaining consumption growth rather than the component that is common across cohorts however it is the cohort specific element that is important in determining changes in consumption growth this result points to a failure of between cohort insurance mechanisms

revenue erosion through exemption and evasion in cameroon 1993 abstract the administration of tax statutes materially determines their economic effects a survey of cameroonian businesses a country seemingly typical of its economic level demonstrates widespread erosion of the tax bases paid by businesses through exemptions and evasion businesses seem willing to provide information on these potentially confidential activities the survey provides information on the number of businesses evading taxes or having exemptions on the characteristics of these businesses relative to others on whether businesses maintain information of use to the tax administration on the contacts between the administration and businesses affecting evasion and on penalties imposed by the administration

a century of economic growth in latin america abstract this paper makes a contribution to the study of economic growth in developing countries by analyzing the six largest latin american economies over 105 years within a two equation framework confirming previous findings physical and human capital prove to be key determinants of gdp per head growth however a more controversial result is an overall negative conditional correlation between trade openness and gdp per head growth though openness has a positive link via investment the evidence also shows that macroeconomic instability has been a drag on long term growth in the region

tax rates and tax evasion evidence from missing imports in china tax evasion by its very nature is difficult to observe we quantify the effects of tax rates on tax evasion by examining the relationship in china between the tariff schedule and the evasion gap which we define as the difference between hong kong s reported exports to china at the product level and china s reported imports from hong kong our results imply that a one percentage point increase in the tax rate is associated with a 3 percent increase in evasion furthermore the evasion gap is negatively correlated with tax rates on closely related products suggesting that evasion takes place partly through misclassification of imports from higher taxed categories to lower taxed ones in addition to underreporting the value of imports

saving and investing for early retirement a theoretical analysis we study optimal consumption and portfolio choice in a framework where investors adjust their labor supply through an irreversible choice of their retirement time we show that investing for early retirement tends to increase savings and reduce an agent s effective relative risk aversion thus increasing her stock market exposure contrary to common intuition an investor might find it optimal to increase the proportion of financial wealth held in stocks as she ages and accumulates assets even when her income and the investment opportunity set are constant the model predicts a decrease in risk aversion following strong market gains like those observed in the nineties

retirement consumption insights from a survey abstract prior research has established that consumption falls significantly at retirement what is not known is the extent to which this fall is anticipated during the working years using data from a new survey we show that many working households do expect a considerable fall in consumption when they retire in fact those who are already retired report significantly smaller falls in consumption than are expected by those who are still working

why does consumption fall at retirement evidence from germany abstract analyzing the consumption behavior over retirement in germany this paper finds a negative correlation between income replacement and the increase in home production related activities this might reconcile the observed drop in consumption at retirement with the predictions of the standard life cycle model however since individuals with fairly stable income over retirement also increase home production this increase cannot be entirely attributed to a substitution effect

the role of intergenerational transfers in aggregate capital accumulation this paper uses historical u s data to directly estimate the contribution of intergenerational transfers to aggregate capital accumulation the evidence presented indicates that intergenerational transfers account for the vast majority of aggregate u s capital formation only a negligible fraction of actual capital accumulation can be traced to life cycle or hump savings a major difference between this study and previous investigations of this issue is the use of more accurate longitudinal age earnings and age consumption profiles these profiles are simply too flat to generate substantial life cycle savings this paper suggests the importance of and need for substantially greater research and data collection on intergenerational transfers life cycle models of savings that emphasize savings for retirement as the dominant form of capital accumulation should give way to models that illuminate the determinants of intergenerational transfers

wealth shocks unemployment shocks and consumption in the wake of the great recession we use data from the 2009 internet survey of the health and retirement study to examine the consumption impact of wealth shocks and unemployment during the great recession in the us we find that many households experienced large capital losses in housing and in their financial portfolios and that a non trivial fraction of respondents have lost their job as a consequence of these shocks many households reduced substantially their expenditures we estimate that the marginal propensities to consume with respect to housing and financial wealth are 1 and 3 3 percentage points respectively in addition those who became unemployed reduced spending by 10 percent we also distinguish the effect of perceived transitory and permanent wealth shocks splitting the sample between households who think that the stock market is likely to recover in a year s time and those who don t in line with the predictions of standard models of intertemporal choice we find that the latter group adjusted much more than the former its spending in response to financial wealth shocks

the mercantilist index of trade policy we introduce an index of trade policy restrictiveness defined as the uniform tariff that maintains the same trade volume as a given tariff quota structure our index overcomes the problems of the trade weighted average tariff it avoids substitution bias correctly accounts for general equilibrium transfers and takes import volume instead of welfare as benchmark empirical applications to international cross section and time series comparisons of trade policy confirm our theoretical results trade weighted average tariffs generally underestimate the true height of tariffs as measured by the trade volume equivalent index this in turn always underestimates the welfare equivalent index

the budget contraction effect how contracting budgets lead to less varied choice how do consumers adjust their spending when their budget changes a common view is that the allocation of one s current budget should not depend on previous budget allocations contrary to this the authors find that when the budget contracts to a particular level consumers select less variety as measured by the number of different items with some of the budget allocated to them than when their budget expands to that same level this budget contraction effect stems from a reduction in variety under the contracting budget not from variety expansion under the expanding budget evidence from five experiments indicates that the effect is driven by a desire to avoid feelings of loss associated with spreading allocation cuts relative to reference quantities from previous allocations across many items

estimating border tax evasion in mozambique abstract the relationship between border tax rates and evasion is examined for mozambique using the methodology developed by fisman and wei 2004 we find that high tax rates are associated with high levels of under reporting of import values and that tax rates have a strong and positive effect on tax evasion results also strongly confirm the presence of fraudulent classification of merchandise into lower taxed product categories finally analysis of the revenue implications of lower trade taxes finds that the revenue curve is quite flat but remains upward sloping with respect to the tax rate when only evasion is considered

the retirement consumption puzzle in china abstract using data from china s urban household survey and exploiting china s mandatory retirement policy we use the regression discontinuity approach to estimate the impact of retirement on household expenditures retirement reduces total non durable expenditures by 20 percent among the categories of non durable expenditures retirement reduces work related expenditures and expenditures on food consumed at home but has an insignificant effect on entertainment expenditures after excluding these three components retirement does not have an effect on the remaining non durable expenditures it suggests that the retirement consumption puzzle might not be a puzzle if a life cycle model with home production is considered

the retirement consumption puzzle evidence from a regression discontinuity approach in this paper we investigate the size of the consumption drop at retirement in italy we use micro data on food and total non durable household spending covering the period 1993 2004 and evaluate the change in consumption that accompanies retirement by exploiting the exogenous variability in pension eligibility to correct for the endogenous nature of the retirement decision we take a regression discontinuity design approach and make the identifying assumption that consumption would be the same around the threshold for pension eligibility if individuals would not retire we check in our data that a non negligible fraction of individuals retire as soon as they become eligible and estimate at 9 8 the part of the non durable consumption drop that is associated with retirement induced by eligibility we show that such fall is not driven by liquidity problems for the less well off in the population and can be accounted for by drops in goods that are work related expenses or leisure substitutes however we also show that retirement induces a significant drop in the number of grown children living with their parents and this can account for most of the retirement consumption drop

the life cycle model of consumption and saving a central implication of life cycle models is that agents smooth consumption we review the empirical evidence on smoothing at frequencies from within the year up to across a lifetime we find that life cycle models particular those which incorporate realistic features of markets and goods have more empirical successes than failures we also show that some apparent deviations from theoretical predictions imply very small welfare losses for agents finally we emphasize that the coherence of life cycle models imposes an important discipline when incorporating new features into models

honey i shrunk the kids benefits revisiting intergenerational conflict in oecd countries intergenerational conflict may arise when the interests of different age groups do not align we examine cross country data to find evidence for this conflict in oecd countries we derive our results from a fgls estimation model which is complemented by a system gmm estimation to account for potential endogeneity the data are from a panel of 22 oecd countries over the time period 1985 2005 we find little support for intergenerational conflict in general however those who are close to statutory retirement age dislike public expenditure on families and education because once they retire they will have less income compared to their work income this effect is transitory however implying a change in voting behavior during retirement age

the next round game theory and public choice perspectives abstract the uruguay round of multilateral trade negotiations proved to be unduly lengthy because of the absence of an adequate negotiating framework to resolve complex new issues although solutions have been found for many issues with the conclusion of the round others remain to be addressed and emerging issue will require resolution with a new round scheduled to start relatively soon it is useful to identify a negotiating framework that may hasten future discussions game theory and public choice are used as analytical tools to illustrate various scenarios that may help policy makers and negotiators identify with particular reference to agriculture the likely main issues bargaining positions and possibilities for compromise the complexity of the issues the divergence of positions between countries the absence of a dominant leader in world trade and the emergence of trade and negotiating blocs which lack a unified position are however factors that may make the next round of multilateral trade negotiations as protracted as the uruguay round discussion and research concerning the issues are required to facilitate the negotiation process

the effects of health wealth and wages on labour supply and retirement behaviour this paper estimates a life cycle model of labour supply retirement and savings behaviour in which future health status and wages are uncertain individuals face a fixed cost of work and cannot borrow against future labour pension or social security income the method of simulated moments is used to match the life cycle profiles of labour force participation hours worked and assets that are estimated from the data to those that are generated by the model the model establishes that the tax structure of the social security system and pensions are key determinants of the high observed job exit rates at ages 62 and 65 removing the tax wedge embedded in the social security earnings test for individuals aged 65 and older would delay job exit by almost one year by contrast social security benefit levels health and borrowing constraints are less important determinants of job exit at older ages for example reducing social security benefits by 20 would cause workers to delay exit from the labour force by only three months

what accounts for the variation in retirement wealth among u s households even among households with similar socioeconomic characteristics saving and wealth vary considerably life cycle models attribute this variation to differences in time preference rates risk tolerance exposure to uncertainty relative tastes for work and leisure at advanced ages and income replacement rates these factors have testable implications concerning the relation between accumulated wealth and the shape of the consumption profile using the panel study of income dynamics and the consumer expenditure survey we find little support for these implications the data are instead consistent with rule of thumb mental accounting or hyperbolic discounting theories of wealth accumulation jel di d91 e21

do newly retired workers in the united states have sufficient resources to maintain well being a current policy issue is the extent to which savings are sufficient to sustain economic well being in retirement we compare annuitized wealth at retirement to three preretirement consumption estimates about one half of new retirees have insufficient resources to enable the full maintenance of estimated preretirement consumption in retirement and about 40 fail to meet the 0 7 of earnings standard that is used in many studies using standards reflecting social poverty norms we find a less serious problem about 5 25 of new retirees have insufficient resources to enable an above poverty near poverty level of living during retirement jel j14 j26

consumption retirement and social security evaluating the efficiency of reform that encourages longer careers abstract this paper proposes and analyzes a social security reform in which individuals no longer face the oasi payroll tax after say age 54 or a career of 34 years and their subsequent earnings have no bearing on their benefits we first estimate parameters of a life cycle model our specification includes non separable preferences and possible disability it predicts a consumption expenditure change at retirement we use the magnitude of the expenditure change together with households retirement age decisions to identify key structural parameters the estimated magnitude of the change in consumption expenditure depends importantly on the treatment of consumption by adult children of the household simulations indicate that the reform could increase retirement ages one year or more equivalent variations could average more than 4000 per household and income tax revenues per household could increase by more than 14 000

trends and projections in income replacement during retirement this article calculates retirement income replacement rates for all labor market cohorts across the last 25 years and describes the changing contributions made by private pensions social security and assets the factors on which replacement rates are sensitive include position in the income distribution the use of after tax instead of pretax incomes the changing family composition of households between their pre and postretirement years and differential underreporting of income by age the debate about reforming the u s retirement income system starts from a base where the current system offers high income replacement rates for most households especially low income households

time to cook expenditure at retirement in spain detailed panel expenditure data from spain reveal little evidence of a retirement consumption puzzle in 1985 2004 there is a drop in food at home expenditure in the later years of the sample along with evidence of households paying lower prices for the food they purchase after retirement however our findings are consistent with a model that allows for home production as long as one accounts for the greater participation in housework by men after retirement coinciding with this latter period our work adds to the evidence from several countries and helps in reconciling the retirement consumption puzzle with life cycle models

trade openness and economic growth a cross country empirical investigation abstract this paper demonstrates that trade liberalization does not have a simple and straightforward relationship with growth using a large number of openness measures for a cross section of countries over the last three decades we use two groups of trade openness measures the regression results for numerous trade intensity ratios are mostly consistent with the existing literature however contrary to the conventional view on the growth effects of trade barriers our estimation results show that trade barriers are positively and in most specifications significantly associated with growth especially for developing countries and they are consistent with the findings of theoretical growth and development literature

declining public pensions in an era of demographic ageing will private provision fill the gap abstract demographic crisis and imprudent commitments have induced a crisis in public pension programmes in oecd countries will present and prospective cutbacks lead to greater private saving either in the form of private pension provision or in other forms of saving the paper surveys existing evidence and provides new results on three questions do individuals substitute private for public provision of savings when public pension programmes are cut back voluntarily do individuals respond to incentives to join sponsored or tax subsidised arrangements if encouraged by the government and if individuals are prepared to make such arrangements and where saving is voluntary do they save enough to replace previous prospective public pension flows

tariff rates tariff revenue and tariff reform some new facts this article compares the statutory and valorem tariff rates official rates with the ratio of tariff revenues to import values collected rates for jamaica kenya and pakistan it identifies four general features of the tariff codes considers whether these features apply to all developing countries and discusses four implications of these features for tariff reform first the collected rate for any given item in the tariff code is only weakly related to the official rate for the item second the variation of collected rates on average increase much less than the official rates fourth the relation between official rates and collected rates is nonlinear because the slope is lower at higher levels of the official rate

the retirement savings puzzle reviewed the role of housing and bequests the so called retirement savings puzzle is a phenomenon by which contrary to what the standard life cycle model predicts households do not run down their wealth significantly during retirement in this review paper we survey the literature on the retirement savings puzzle and we connect it with the literature on housing equity during retirement to establish a link between these two streams of literature we use as a framework the work of nakajima and telyukova 2013a home equity in retirement ucsd working paper and nakajima and telyukova 2017 reverse mortgage loans a quantitative analysis journal of finance 72 911 950 who find that home ownership interacts with factors that explain the retirement savings puzzle notably with the bequest motive we complement the results by nakajima and telyukova by relating them to the literature on altruistic bequests strategic bequests and housing as a commitment device all of which give further insights on the connection between home ownership and bequests we complement our review of the literature with descriptive evidence using the netherlands as a case study

household portfolio choice and retirement this study examines household portfolio choice through the retirement transition i show that couples significantly decrease their stock allocations after retirement whereas singles allocations remain relatively unchanged reallocations are concentrated among couples in which the wife is more risk averse than her husband husbands and wives respective retirement events are followed by opposite signed changes in stock allocations these findings are consistent with a model of collective household decision making in which spouses have heterogeneous risk preferences and suggest that dynamics in the distribution of intrahousehold bargaining power generate time varying household risk aversion

does consumption respond to predicted increases in cash hand availability evidence from the italian severance pay abstract we examine whether italian household consumption exhibits excess sensitivity to severance pay a sizable lump sum that workers receive at job termination we find no evidence of excess sensitivity of non durable expenditure to this anticipated cash in hand change

trade liberalisation and poverty reduction in vietnam this paper investigates the impacts of trade liberalisation on poverty reduction in vietnam during the period of economic reform using a combined approach dealing with four transmitting channels from trade to poverty the major findings are summarised as follows first vietnam s trade liberalisation has fostered economic growth which has helped to raise per capita gdp and reduce poverty second trade liberalisation has directly benefited the poor through creating pro poor employment and raising wages third another impact of trade liberalisation on poverty is income and substitution effects associated with reduced domestic prices of importables and increased domestic prices of exportables such as coffee and rice fourth trade liberalisation has indirectly benefited the poor because it raises government revenue which enhances the government s ability to subsidise the poor finally although the poverty rate in vietnam has been reduced impressively there is an increasing disparity between urban and rural areas and among the latter concern does exist regarding ethnic minorities

the trend in retirement a model with leisure production and endogenous retirement is used to explain declining labor force participation rates of elderly males the model is calibrated to cross sectional data on labor force participation rates of u s males by age their drop in consumption and leisure good expenditure share in 2000 running the calibrated model for the period 1850 2000 a prediction of the evolution of the cross section is obtained the model accounts for more than 87 of the increase in retirement of men over 65 the increase in retirement is driven by rising wages and falling prices of leisure goods

demographic change and the uk savings rate microeconomic data are used to explore the effects of a changing age structure on the uk s aggregate personal savings rate the findings suggest that changes to the population s age structure have had detectable sustained but relative to the yearly changes observed in the savings rate over the previous century modest effects on aggregate personal sector savings it is estimated that the projected changes to the uk s age structure over the next 40 years are likely to raise the uk s savings rate but by no more than two percentage points no basis is found for the view that the aggregate savings rate will decline as a result of the anticipated ageing of the uk population

is there a retirement consumption puzzle in japan evidence from a household panel dataset spanning several years using a unique long run panel of japanese households this paper examines the changes in consumption at retirement the retirement consumption puzzle our analysis shows that households expendi

integrity for hire an analysis of a widespread customs reform abstract can governments improve bureaucratic performance by hiring integrity from the private sector in the past 2 decades a number of developing countries have hired private firms to conduct preshipment inspections of imports generating independent data on the value and tariff classification of incoming shipments i find that countries implementing such inspection programs subsequently experience large increases in import duty collections by contrast the growth rate of other tax revenues does not change appreciably additional evidence suggests that declines in falsification of import documentation are behind the import duty improvements the programs also lead to declines in undervaluation and misreporting of goods classifications historically this hired integrity appears to have been cost effective with improvements in import duty collections in the first 5 years of a typical inspection program amounting to 2 6 times the program s costs

is there a retirement consumption puzzle evidence using subjective retirement expectations abstract previous research finds a systematic decrease in consumption at retirement a finding that is inconsistent with the life cycle permanent income hypothesis if retirement is an expected event in this paper we use workers subjective beliefs about their retirement dates as an instrument for retirement after demonstrating that subjective retirement expectations are strong predictors of subsequent retirement decisions we still find a consumption decline at retirement for workers who retire when expected however our estimates of this consumption fall are about a third less than those found when we instead rely on the instrumental variables strategy used in prior studies

mutual supervision in preshipment inspection programs abstract preshipment inspection psi programmes are implemented in many developing countries to assist governments in the collection of revenue at their borders these programs consist of the delegation of the inspection of imports to a private firm to study these psi programmes we develop a hierarchical agency model in which the government authority can rely on two supervisors namely the private inspection firm and the customs administration to control importers declarations the government s optimal contract is fully characterized we devote some attention to the inspection policy and its comparative statics properties in particular we identify the situations in which psi programmes are revenue enhancing we also discuss the reconciliation policy i e what to do in case of conflicting inspection reports by the inspection firm and the customs administration in the optimal mechanism mutual supervision between the inspection firm and the customs administration is used to provide adequate incentives to all parties

back to work expectations and realizations of work after retirement this paper analyzes a puzzling aspect of retirement behavior known as unretirement nearly 50 percent of retirees follow a nontraditional retirement path that involves partial retirement or unretirement and at least 26 percent of retirees later unretire i explore two possible explanations 1 unretirement transitions result from failures in planning or financial shocks and 2 unretirement transitions are anticipated prior to retirement reflecting a more complex retirement process i show that unretirement was anticipated for the vast majority of those returning to work and is not a result of financial shocks poor planning or low wealth accumulation