margining in derivatives markets and the stability of the banking sector we investigate the effects of margining a widely used mechanism for attaching collateral to derivatives contracts on derivatives trading volume default risk and on the welfare in the banking sector first we develop a stylized banking sector equilibrium model to develop some basic intuition of the effects of margining we find that a margin requirement can be privately and socially sub optimal subsequently we extend this model into a dynamic simulation model that captures some of the essential characteristics of over the counter derivatives markets contrarily to the common belief that margining always reduces default risk we find that there exist situations in which margining increases default risk reduces aggregate derivatives trading volume and has an ambiguous effect on welfare in the banking sector the negative effects of margining are exacerbated during periods of market stress when margin rates are high and collateral is scarce we also find that central counterparties only lift some of the inefficiencies caused by margining

productivity and distribution effects of codetermination in an efficient bargaining model codetermination can be regarded as an extreme regulatory intervention of the legislator in the labor market which might affect the efficiency of production and the bargaining power of labor based on a model that covers both efficient bargaining and employment bargaining a simple equation is derived that is suited to empirical testing the empirical test is based on german data and includes years before and after the extension of german codetermination law in 1976 the estimates determine the productivity of labor and relative bargaining power of capital and labor it turns out that codetermination does not affect productivity but leads to a significant increase in workers bargaining power and the distribution of rents

losing money on the margin abstract margin trading is popular with retail investors around the world to limit the scale of these investors potential losses regulators impose a system of collateral requirements and margin calls we show in this paper however that the collateral requirement imposed by margin calls results in negative expected returns for these traders whilst also inducing positive skew in the returns distribution investments in assets with symmetric returns when traded on margin instead offer limited losses and a small chance of a large gain much like lottery stocks and other gambles we demonstrate this theoretically and then show empirically using a unique database of account data from a chinese retail brokerage that the realized losses of margin traders are often substantial this leads us to question whether current regulation is appropriate

fiscal policy and financial market movements abstract this paper estimates fiscal policy reaction function in order to investigate the links between financial market movements and fiscal policy outcomes an increase in asset prices affects in a positive and significant manner primary balances with the response reflecting both an increase in government revenues and a fall in government spending the most important impact on fiscal balances is due to changes in residential property prices changes in equity and commercial property prices are also important determinants of fiscal balances our findings suggest that the steepening of the slope of the yield curve contributes to expenditure based fiscal discipline

financial cycles and fiscal multipliers abstractwe show that fiscal multiplier estimations may be biased by movements in asset and credit markets as they facilitate spurious correlations of changes in cyclically adjusted revenues and spending with output growth via an identification bias and an omitted variable bias thus overstating episodes of expansionary consolidations and downplaying contractionary consolidations when controlling for asset and credit market movements in otherwise standard approaches to identification we find multipliers to increase on average by 0 3 1 units fiscal consolidations are thus more likely to be contractionary and more harmful to growth than expected by some strands of the existing literature

fiscal policy and monetary integration in europe fiscal policy economists policy makers and the media often argue that the maastricht treaty and the stability and growth pact make it difficult for governments of emu countries to stabilize their economies with appropriate fiscal policy and to provide adequate public investment our empirical analysis offers little support to this view discretionary budget deficits have actually become more counter cyclical in emu countries after the maastricht treaty as well as in the other eu and non eu industrialized countries we study and while public investment has declined recently in emu countries a similar tendency is apparent in other countries and started well before the maastricht treaty was signed jordi gali and roberto perotti

employee participation in management bargaining power and wages the paper analyzes the impact of employee participation in management on bargaining power and wages it presents an empirical model which allows for variable bargaining powers of the parties who jointly control the firm and it tests this model with postwar west german data the results suggest that parity codetermination has had a positive effect on earnings in iron and steel but not in coal mining moreover it appears that the positive effect in iron and steel could be due to increased profitability rather than an increase in the bargaining power of labor as defined in this study

financial institutions and markets across countries and over time the updated financial development and structure database this article introduces the updated and expanded version of the financial development and structure database the database includes indicators on the size efficiency and stability of banks nonbank financial institutions and equity and bond markets over 1960 2007 it also contains indicators of financial globalization

monitoring banking sector fragility a multivariate logit approach this article explores how a multivariate logit model of the probability of a banking crisis can be used to monitor banking sector fragility the proposed approach relies on readily available data and the fragility assessment has a clear interpretation based on in sample statistics the model has better in sample performance than currently available alternatives and the monitoring system can be tailored to fit the preferences of decision makers regarding type i and type ii errors the framework can be useful as a preliminary screen to economize on precautionary costs

real time data and fiscal policy analysis a survey of the literature abstractthis paper surveys the empirical research on scal policy analysis based on real timedata this literature can be broadly divided in three groups that focus on 1 the statisticalproperties of revisions in scal data 2 the political and institutional determinants of scaldata revisions and of one year ahead projection errors by governments and 3 the reactionof scal policies to the business cycle it emerges that rst scal data revisions are largeand initial releases are biased estimates of nal values second the presence of strong scalrules and institutions leads to relatively more accurate releases of scal data and smalldeviations of scal outcomes from government plans third the cyclical stance of scalpolicies is estimated to be more counter cyclical when real time data are used instead ofex post data finally more work is needed for the development of real time datasets for scalpolicy analysis in particular a comprehensive real time dataset including scal variablesfor industrialized and possibly developing countries published and maintained by centralbanks or other institutions is still missing

costs of banking system instability some empirical evidence abstract this paper assesses the cross country stylised facts on empirical measures of the losses incurred during periods of banking crises we first consider the direct resolution costs to the government and then the broader costs to the welfare of the economy proxied by losses in gdp we find that the cumulative output losses incurred during crisis periods are large roughly 15 20 on average of annual gdp in contrast to previous research we also find that output losses incurred during crises in developed countries are as high or higher on average than those in emerging market economies moreover output losses during crisis periods in developed countries also appear to be significantly larger 10 15 than in neighbouring countries that did not at the time experience severe banking problems in emerging market economies by contrast banking crises appear to be costly only when accompanied by a currency crisis these results seem robust to allowing for macroeconomic conditions at the outset of crisis in particular low and declining output growth that have also contributed to future output losses during crises episodes

the cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy evidence from the oecd this paper addresses the topic of cyclicality in scal policy in particular we show that the level of cyclicality varies across spending categories and across oecd countries in line with leading theories of scal cyclicality we show that countries with volatile output and dispersed political power are the most likely to run procyclical scal policies wage government consumption is highlighted as the most important channel by which these variables affect scal cyclicality

the fiscal cost implications of an accommodating approach to banking crises abstract in recent decades a majority of countries have experienced a systemic banking crisis requiring a major and expensive overhaul of their banking system budgetary outlays whether immediate or deferred have exceeded 50 of gdp in some cases this paper uses cross country econometric evidence to examine whether the design of crisis containment and resolution policies can systematically influence the overall magnitude of fiscal costs we find that accommodating policies such as blanket deposit guarantees open ended liquidity support repeated partial recapitalizations debtor bail outs and regulatory forbearance all tend to add significantly and sizably to fiscal costs

external adjustment and the global crisis abstract the period preceding the global financial crisis was characterized by a substantial widening of current account imbalances across the world since the onset of the crisis these imbalances have contracted to a significant extent in this paper we analyze the ongoing process of external adjustment in advanced economies and emerging markets we find that countries whose pre crisis current account balances were in excess of what could be explained by standard economic fundamentals have experienced the largest contractions in their external balance we subsequently examine the contributions of real exchange rates domestic demand and domestic output to the adjustment process allowing for differences across exchange rate regimes and find that external adjustment in deficit countries was achieved primarily through demand compression rather than expenditure switching finally we show that changes in other investment flows were the main channel of financial account adjustment with official external assistance and ecb liquidity cushioning the exit of private capital flows for some countries

the european sovereign debt crisis the origin and propagation of the european sovereign debt crisis can be attributed to the flawed original design of the euro in particular there was an incomplete understanding of the fragility of a monetary union under crisis conditions especially in the absence of banking union and other european level buffer mechanisms moreover the inherent messiness involved in proposing and implementing incremental multicountry crisis management responses on the fly has been an important destabilizing factor throughout the crisis after diagnosing the situation we consider reforms that might improve the resilience of the euro area to future fiscal shocks

restoring banking stability beyond supervised capital requirements emerging economies have been particularly prone to financial sector crises reflecting marked information asymmetries and political interference as well as the substantial volatility in underlying economic conditions and the vulnerability of banking and finance when structural economic changes create a new and uncharted operating environment the standard regulatory paradigm relies mainly on supervised capital adequacy but it may not be enough other measures to improve the incentive structure for bankers regulators and other market participants could effectively increase the number of concerned skilled and watchful eyes intermittent application of supplementary blunt instruments could also be useful

the effect of bank bail outs in the eu abstract the financial crisis renewed the debate on the bail out of financial institutions questioning the effectiveness of such an intervention in restoring normal economic conditions this paper analyzes the effect on the real economy of state financial support to distressed banks using a panel approach that covers all countries in the eu throughout the financial crisis results show that state financial support was able to enhance economic conditions by restoring trust in financial markets state support boosted the ongoing substitution between securities and bank lending as the main financing channel of non financial firms

competition among exchanges does competition among e nancial intermediaries lead to excessively low standards to examine this question we construct a model where intermediaries design contracts to attract trading volume taking into consideration that traders differ in credit quality and may default when credit quality is observable intermediaries demand the right amount of guarantees a monopolist would demand fewer guarantees private information about credit quality has an ambiguous effect in a competitive environment when the cost of default is large small private information leads to higher lower standards we exhibit examples where private information is present and competition produces higher standards than monopoly does i introduction in spite of the general acceptance of the competitive mechanism as an allocation scheme many observers consider e nancial intermediation an exception competition is thought to lead to a race to the bottom in which e nancial intermediaries settle for excessively low levels of contractual guarantees in an attempt to increase volume evaluating futures exchanges a joint report from the treasury and the federal reserve board written in the wake of the 1987 crash states that t here is sufe cient possibility that at some point sros self regulatory organizations might establish margins that were inconsistent enough to present market problems or set them at levels that might present potential costs to other parties that regulatory approval should be established in all markets 1

relative wage effects of unions dictatorship and codetermination econometric evidence from germany t he present study estimates the effects of trade unions hitler s regime and codetermination on relative wages in germany i each of these establishments is considered to have had important implications for germany s labor market moreover a thorough understanding of their effects can be valuable for comparative purposes following a brief discussion of these phenomena and their hypothesized effects on wages the analytical model is developed in section ii the empirical results are reported in section iii and section iv contains the summary and conclusions the extensive literature on the relative wage effects of trade unions has focused almost exclusively on the union impact in north america2 and more recently in great britain 3 since the german institutions of industrial and labor relations differ considerably from their angloamerican counterparts4 and often have been studied as a successful possibly superior system which might be adopted by others it is worthwhile exploring the magnitude of the union wage effect in the german institutional setting in particular it has been argued that compared to their american and british counterparts the continental unions tend to place more emphasis on political and social rather than economic achievements 5 if this hypothesis is correct then ceteris paribus the estimated relative wage effect of german unions ought to be smaller than that found in the united states and great britain with the advent of hitler s regime in 1933 there was a dramatic transformation of the existing political and economic institutions trade unions which in 1932 represented over 40 of the industrial labor force were promptly abolished6 and replaced by a government operated labor front 7 strikes and lockouts were forbidden and wages were determined centrally 8 while the effects of these changes on the cultural political and social life have been well documented few economic studies attempted to analyze the effect of hitler s regime on wages and incomes moreover those that did used a qualitative or only a loose quantitative approach partially as a result of the lack of a systematic wage series prior to 1934 9 w krelle 1962 p 17 has shown for example that labor income received for publication july 30 1979 revision accepted for publication may 1 1980 cornell university i would like to thank orley ashenfelter albert rees and two anonymous referees for helpful comments i have also benefited from discussions with j s butler william greene louis phlips and katherine terrell any remaining errors are of course my own this research was in part supported by a grant to the princeton university economics department from the sloan foundation i the term codetermination refers to the german participatory system of management as it was originally established in the federal republic by the 1951 codetermination act and the 1952 works constitution act 2 the most important work and collection of references on the subject is still lewis 1963 among the later studies in the private sector are ashenfelter 1972 ashenfelter and johnson 1972 bloch and kuskin 1978 boskin 1972 de menil 1971 rosen 1969 and schmidt and strauss 1976 public sector studies are summarized by lewin 1977 x see especially pencavel 1974 mulvey 1976 and metcalf 1977 4 needless to say there are important differences between the u s and british systems of industrial and labor relations they exhibit considerable homogeneity however when compared to the systems in continental europe historically the relatively most salient features of the german system have been 1 trade union affiliation with political parties and or religioiis organizations 2 industrial unionism 3 governmental interference in industrial and labor relations and 4 paternalistic management world war ii led to the unification of the formerly splintered unions in the deutsches gewerkschafts bund dgb close collaboration with the social democratic party sdp and the establishment of codetermination for institutional references see almanasreh 1977 fiirstenberg 1969 1977 schregle 1978 and vollmer 1976 1979 5 see kassalow 1969 1980 and windmuller 1969 6 employers associations followed their lead in 1934 7 the labor front included all employees and employers it represented the nazi government in the factories and possessed broad powers over its member subjects 8 in fact the entire economy underwent considerable centralization as hitler proclaimed his first four year plan in 1933 and a second one in 1936 9 among the most thorough and informative of these conventional studies is that of bry 1960 for a discussion of the data see gerss 1977

procyclicality of fiscal policy in european union countries abstract using real time data we examine whether fiscal policy has been counter or procyclical in a panel of 27 european union eu member states over the period 2000 2015 we also investigate whether fiscal rules and government efficiency improve the cyclical reaction of fiscal policy our results suggest that even though fiscal plans in eu countries have an acyclical stance budgetary outcomes are procyclical government efficiency and fiscal rules seem to reduce fiscal procyclicality further analysis also reveals that fiscal policy seems to be more procyclical in non euro area countries and in times of economic prosperity

the impact of the strategic sale of restructured banks evidence from indonesia summary we examine the effect of strategic sale which is the sale of banks to strategic foreign investors on bank performance the government of indonesia implemented such a policy as part of a bank restructuring in the aftermath of the 1998 banking crisis using difference in differences models we find that strategic sale leads to a 12 15 cost reduction these results are robust to the use of other estimators such as difference in differences matching estimators and stochastic frontier analysis to that of other performance measures such as return on assets and net interest margin and to that of different sample types these results suggest that strategic sale could play an important role in restructuring troubled banks in developing countries

margin requirements price fluctuations and market participation in metal futures margin requirements in metal futures contracts have a negative impact on market participation that seems causal because it is absent from a benchmark group of metals that do not undergo similar margin changes it is less clear whether margins restrict primarily rational or irrational investors the stronger positive relation between margins and future target metal volatility than benchmark metal volatility can simply be attributed to the selection rule of the exchanges as they increase margins in those metals for which they anticipate a comparatively higher future volatility copyright 1995 by ohio state university press

budgetary risks from real estate and stock markets fiscal revenues and government expenditures are affected by asset price changes in ways that are not accounted for by standard cyclical adjustment methods revenues are influenced by capital gains and turnover taxation as well as by output changes determined by the effect of wealth changes on consumption and investment and outlays may also be affected if collapsing asset prices prompt fiscal authorities to bail out private sector balance sheet problems we point out that these effects can be asymmetric resulting in deficit and debt biases and we find support for this phenomenon in panel estimates for a sample of 20 industrialized countries over 1982 2002 the estimated coefficients indicate that 30 40 of the dramatic early 1990s fiscal balance deteriorations in the uk and sweden was due to asset price effects with a particularly relevant role for real estate price changes if financial markets experience boom bust cycles prudent management of fiscal windfalls in boom phases is needed to ensure fiscal and financial sustainability in bust phases and budgetary rules may need to account explicitly for a separate role of asset price related effects felix eschenbach and ludger schuknecht

fiscal cyclicality and emu abstract for the set of emu member countries we examine cyclical patterns in fiscal outcomes we find that there is significant time variation in fiscal cyclicality with an improvement in the wake of the maastricht treaty but a deterioration after the creation of emu furthermore we show that the fiscal cycle is affected by the financial cycle in addition to the output cycle the lessons for the current reforms of european economic and fiscal governance are manifest

the asymmetric relation between initial margin requirements and stock market volatility across bull and bear markets higher initial margin requirements are associated with lower subsequent stock market volatility during normal and bull periods but show no relationship during bear periods higher margins are also negatively related to the conditional mean of stock returns apparently because they reduce systemic risk we conclude that a prudential rule for setting margins or other regulatory restrictions is to lower them in sharply declining markets in order to enhance liquidity and avoid a depyramiding effect in stock prices but subsequently raise them and keep them at the higher level in order to prevent a future pyramiding effect copyright 2002 oxford university press

econometric modelling of non ferrous metal prices abstract this article evaluates the significance of the empirical models and the distributional properties of prices in non ferrous metal spots and futures markets published in leading refereed economics and finance journals between 1980 and 2002 the survey focuses on econometric analyses of pricing and return models applied to exchange based spot and futures markets for the main industrially used non ferrous metals namely aluminium copper lead nickel tin and zinc published empirical research is evaluated in the light of the type of contract examined frequency of data used choice of both dependent and explanatory variables use of proxy variables type of model chosen economic hypotheses tested methods of estimation and calculation of ses for inference reported descriptive statistics use of diagnostic tests of auxiliary assumptions use of nested and non nested tests use of information criteria and empirical implications for non ferrous metals