the effectiveness of keynes tobin transaction taxes when heterogeneous agents can trade in different markets a behavioral finance approach abstract we develop a model in which boundedly rational agents apply technical and fundamental analysis to identify trading signals in two different speculative markets whether an agent trades and if so in which market with which strategy depends on profit considerations as it turns out an ongoing evolutionary competition between the trading strategies causes complex price dynamics which closely resembles the behavior of actual speculative prices moreover we find that if the agents have to pay a transaction tax in one market price variability decreases in this market but increases in the other market however the imposition of a uniform tax on all transactions stabilizes both markets our results suggest that if regulators of a market introduce a transaction tax other markets are likely to follow

the impact of a financial transaction tax on stylized facts of price returns evidence from the lab as the introduction of financial transaction taxes is increasingly discussed by political leaders we explore possible consequences such taxes could have on markets here we examine how stylized facts namely fat tails and volatility clustering are affected by different tax regimes in laboratory experiments we find that leptokurtosis of price returns is highest and clustered volatility is weakest in unilaterally taxed markets where tax havens exist instead tails are slimmest and volatility clustering is strongest in tax havens when an encompassing financial transaction tax is levied stylized facts hardly change compared to a scenario with no tax on all markets

controlling for observed and unobserved site characteristics in rum models of recreation demand hatch act and state of iowa the iowa department of natural resources and the u s environmental protection agency s science to achieve results star program grant r830818

the economic consequences of a tobin tax an experimental analysis abstract the effects of a tobin tax on foreign exchange markets have long been disputed we present an experiment with currency trading on two markets where either none one or both markets are taxed our results confirm the hitherto undisputed issues a tax reduces trading volume shifts market share to untaxed markets and leads to negligible tax revenues if tax havens exist concerning the controversial issues we find that i volatility effects depend on the existence of tax havens and on market size ii market efficiency decreases in taxed markets when tax havens exist and iii short term speculation is reduced

the role of transaction costs for financial volatility evidence from the paris bourse this paper analyzes the causal linkage between transaction costs and financial volatility under two methodological improvements over the existing literature first we use panel data in which exogenous transaction cost differences in the french stock market are induced by price level dependent minimum price variation rules tick size rules unlike in previous studies based on one time regulatory tick size changes like the u s decimalization we can separately identify and control for marketwide volatility changes second we avoid the pitfalls of biased volatility measurement across regimes by using the range as a tick size robust volatility metric panel regressions controlling for marketwide volatility effects show at high levels of statistical significance that the hourly range volatility of individual stocks increases by more than 30 for a 20 exogenous increase in transaction costs due to tick size variations in the french trading system in the light of this evidence higher transaction costs in general and security transaction taxes in particular should be considered as volatility increasing jel f3 g1 g14

handling unobserved site characteristics in random utility models of recreation demand abstract this paper presents a new random utility model of recreation demand that addresses the unobserved characteristics of recreation sites most random utility recreation demand models implicitly assume that all relevant site characteristics are observed by the researcher or allow for the possibility of unobserved characteristics in a restrictive manner unlike traditional approaches the proposed model avoids the bias unobserved site characteristics can cause in welfare estimates and the travel cost parameter monte carlo simulations motivate the proposed model by showing that it provides more efficient parameter estimates in contrast existing methods yield less efficient estimates and biased standard errors that overstate precision an empirical application to recreational fishing in wisconsin illustrates the potential importance of this modeling innovation in this application controlling for unobserved characteristics is important for a range of model specifications

effects of capital controls on foreign exchange liquidity abstract this paper investigates from a theoretical and empirical perspective the effects of capital controls on cost based measures of foreign exchange fx market liquidity first we propose a market microstructure model of the exchange rate where capital controls reduce the trades of constrained dealers the effect is a tightening of the effective spread which increases market liquidity then we propose a new measure of capital account restrictiveness that in contrast to other traditional measures can account for intensive changes in capital controls policies using this measure in a panel of emerging market economies we provide empirical evidence showing that capital controls can reduce the implicit cost component of fx market liquidity

site aggregation in a random utility model of recreation random utility models are commonly used to model the choice among a set of alternatives often due to data or computational constraints the analyst must use aggregated alternatives to estimate the model these aggregates are defined by averaging characteristics of alternatives over prespecified groups in this analysis we demonstrate that unless some very restrictive conditions hold the use of aggregated alternatives will lead to biased results then using a data set of recreational fishing in wisconsin we show the effects that this bias can have on the results estimated from the model

market microstructure matters when imposing a tobin tax evidence from the lab trading in fx markets is dominated by two microstructures exchanges with market makers and otc markets without market makers using laboratory experiments we test whether the impact of a tobin tax is different in these two market microstructures we find that i in markets without market makers an unilaterally imposed tobin tax i e a tax haven exists increases volatility ii in contrast in markets with market makers we observe a decrease in volatility in unilaterally taxed markets iii an encompassing tobin tax has no impact on volatility in either setting efficiency does not vary significantly across tax regimes

a note on choice of residential location in travel cost demand models where x is number of visits to a site p is price y is a k x 1 vector of observed individual characteristics and e is a random component 1 is a 1 x k parameter vector and p is a scalar parameter hundreds of models with this basic demand relationship as a basis have been estimated see smith s 1989 review my concern is that the price used in this model may be endogenous because people base decisions about where to live in part on proximity to recreation sites if so unobserved taste characteristics in the error term e will be

securities transaction taxes an overview of costs benefits and unresolved questions many major developed countries including germany japan and the united kingdom have some form of tax on securities transactions the clinton administration recently considered imposing fees of from 14 on transactions in futures contracts past budgets have considered fees of from 6 to 15 proponents of a securities transaction tax in the u s argue that it would tap into a significant source of revenues and would in addition act to reduce excess volatility in securities markets by discouraging speculative and noise trading some have argued that it would also increase investors expected holding periods hence encourage corporate managers to build for the long term opponents argue that any benefits from such a tax would be overwhelmed by its costs they point out that a tax on transactions would increase the cost of capital reduce market liquidity and bring down security values furthermore as the tax would change the relative costs of holding and issuing different classes of securities it might be expected to change capital structures and investment portfolios too at its worst a securities transaction tax could drive trading in some securities to overseas markets not burdened by taxation the economic and societal distortions resulting from taxation and avoidance would likely be large

some effects of transaction taxes under different microstructures we show that the effectiveness of transaction taxes depends on the market microstructure within our model heterogeneous traders use a blend of technical and fundamental trading strategies to determine their orders in addition they may become inactive if the profitability of trading decreases we find that in a continuous double auction market the imposition of a transaction tax is not likely to stabilize financial markets since a reduction in market liquidity amplifies the average price impact of a given order in a dealership market however abundant liquidity is provided by specialists and thus a transaction tax may reduce volatility by crowding out speculative orders

two stage estimation to control for unobservables in a recreation demand model with unvisited sites the role of unobserved site attributes is a growing concern in recreation demand modeling one solution in random utility models rums involves separating estimation into two stages where the rum is estimated with alternative specific constants ascs in the first stage and the estimated ascs are regressed on the observed site attributes in the second stage prior work estimates the second stage with ordinary least squares ols and two stage least squares regression we present an application with censored regression in the second stage we show ols produces inconsistent parameters when there are unvisited sites with no estimable ascs and that censored regression avoids this problem

should speculators be taxed a number of economists have supported the taxation of speculation in financial markets we examine the welfare economics of such a tax in a model of a financial market where some agents have superior information and others have a hedging motive we show that a tax on speculators may actually increase speculative profits this occurs if the speculators benefit from less informative prices offsets the cost of the tax the effect on the welfare of other agents depends on how information revelation changes risk sharing opportunities it is possible for the introduction of a tax to cause a pareto improvement copyright 2000 by university of chicago press

behavior of the firm under regulatory constraint a recent article by akira takayama discusses an earlier paper by harvey averch and leland l johnson on fair rate of return regulation of public utilities although takayama p 255 agrees with averch and johnson s general conclusions that a firm will tend to increase its investment with the introduction of an active constraint on its rate of return he criticizes the a j argument as being confusing ambiguous and in error takayama then attempts a clarification and presents a new formulation which leads to the a j result quoted above this comment will discuss several of takayama s criticisms in addition to showing that the so called a j effect cannot be derived from the basic assumptions made by both averch and johnson and takayama 1 we will show that the very assumptions used to prove the a j effect by defining the region of x require an assumption that the a j effect exists in the first place

transaction taxes and the behavior of the swedish stock market abstract this paper studies the effects of transaction taxes on the behavior of swedish equity returns during the 1980 1987 period sweden provides an excellent laboratory style setting for such a study as taxes were imposed for political purposes rather than to alter the behavior of the stock market volatility did not decline in response to the introduction of taxes although stock price levels and turnover did large proportions of trading activity migrated overseas to london when the tax rate was increased to 2 in 1986

estimation of a type 2 tobit model with generalized box cox transformation this article considers estimation of a type 2 tobit model with bickel doksum transformation of the dependent variable of the regression equation the basic idea is that while the transformed depend

estimation of a two limit tobit model with generalized box cox transformation and unknown censoring thresholds this article considers estimation of a two limit tobit model with generalized box cox transformation and unknown censoring thresholds the maximum likelihood estimates of the censoring thresholds a

regulatory capture in agency performance evaluation industry expertise versus revolving door lobbying this study investigates the concept of bureaucratic competence specifically we challenge the argument that a careerists premium the tendency for public services run by careerists to receive better performance evaluations than services administered by other types of public managers necessarily is explained by the superior expertise of career bureaucrats evidence that forms the basis of this possibility comes from performance evaluations of korean state owned enterprises soes managed by different types of executives between 2000 and 2015 the results of our analyses provide support for the existence of a careerists premium however we find that the premium is most salient and significant when executives had retired from the governmental agency that oversees the performance evaluation process moreover the gap between qualitative and quantitative assessment scores increase significantly when the evaluated soes are managed by career executives who have retired from the regulating agency this result suggests that the oft cited careerists premium may not necessarily signify careerists greater expertise it may also be the product of lobbying and regulatory capture

valuing water quality as a function of water quality measures employing a unique and rich data set of water quality attributes in conjunction with detailed household characteristics and trip information we develop a mixed logit model of recreational lake usage and undertake thorough model specification and fitting procedures to identify the best set of explanatory variables and their functional form for the estimated model our empirical analysis shows that individuals are responsive to the full set of water quality measures used by biologists to identify the impaired status of lakes thus changes in these quality measures are not simply a scientific exercise but they also translate into changes in the recreational usage patterns and well being of individual households willingness to pay wtp estimates are reported based on improvements in these physical measures

effects of regulations on expected catch expected harvest and site choice of recreational anglers the use of public lands and waterways is often subject to environmental regulations designed to limit the depletion of resource stocks such regulations may influence expectations of quality destination choice and consumer surplus this paper examines the effects of environmental regulations on recreational anglers the empirical application develops a joint model of expected catch and expected harvest in conjunction with a random utility model of site choice findings for maine anglers indicate that regulations have sizable effects on catch and harvest site choice and welfare

accounting for choice set endogeneity in random utility models of recreation demand abstract modeling the choice among a discrete set of recreation alternatives is driven by the possible patterns of substitution among sites researchers typically assume that the individual s choice set is the same as the set of alternatives included in the recreation survey instrument our endogenous choice set model is a generalization of the standard multinomial logit random utility model which allows for the possibility of heterogeneous choice sets that are endogenously determined in the model using two examples we show that parameter and compensating variation estimates differ greatly between the endogenous choice set model and the traditional logit model

identifying demand parameters in the presence of unobservables a combined revealed and stated preference approach we develop a combined revealed and stated preference approach to identify discrete choice demand parameters in the presence of unobserved determinants of choice our approach overcomes difficulties associated with small choice sets multicollinearity and endogeneity that arise with revealed preference approaches to illustrate our framework we revisit two canadian moose hunting datasets our empirical results suggest the potential gains from fusing revealed and stated preference data but they also suggest its limitations when the data generating processes for the data sources differ

how tournament incentives affect asset markets a comparison between winner take all tournaments and elimination contests abstract we investigate the impact of investment managers tournament incentives on investment strategies and market efficiency distinguishing between winner take all tournaments wta where a minority wins and elimination contests ec where a majority wins theoretically we show that investment managers play heterogeneous strategies in wta and homogeneous strategies in ec and markets are more prone to mispricing in wta than in ec experimentally we find that investment managers play more heterogeneous strategies in wta than in ec but this does not trigger significant differences in prices moreover prices in wta and ec do not differ significantly from markets composed of linearly incentivized subjects

do option like incentives induce overvaluation evidence from experimental asset markets abstract one potential reason for bubbles evolving prior to the financial crisis was excessive risk taking stemming from option like incentive schemes in financial institutions by running laboratory asset markets we investigate the impact of option like incentives on price formation and trading behavior the main results are that i we observe significantly higher market prices with option like incentives than linear incentives ii we further find that option like incentives provoke subjects to behave differently and to take more risk than subjects with linear incentives iii we finally show that trading at inflated prices is rational for subjects with option like incentives since it increases their expected payout

recreation demand models with taste differences over people we estimate random parameter logit models of anglers choice of fishing site the models generalize logit by allowing coefficients to vary randomly over anglers rather than being fixed the models do not exhibit the restrictive independence from irrelevant alternatives property of logit and can represent any substitution pattern estimation explicitly accounts for the fact that the variation in coefficients over anglers induces correlation in unobserved utility over trips by the same angler willingness to pay for improved fish stock and the value to anglers of specific sites are calculated from the models and compared with the estimates obtained from a standard logit model

using an artificial financial market for assessing the impact of tobin like transaction taxes abstract the tobin tax is a solution proposed by many economists for limiting the speculation in foreign exchange and stock markets and for making these markets stabler in this paper we present a study on the effects of a transaction tax on one and on two related markets using an artificial financial market based on heterogeneous agents the microstructure of the market is composed of four kinds of traders random traders fundamentalists momentum traders and contrarians and the resources allocated to them are limited in each market it is possible to levy a transaction tax in the case of two markets each trader can choose in which market to trade and an attraction function is defined that drives their choice based on perceived profitability we performed extensive simulations and found that the tax actually increases volatility and decreases trading volumes these findings are discussed in the paper

the extent of information its relevance for random utility models this paper examines the effect of the researcher s definition of a recreator s choice set on the parameter and welfare estimates from standard random utility models three choice set definitions are compared choice sets based on all alternatives within the survey those alternatives within a specified distance from the respondents home and alternatives familiar to the individual we show that parameter and welfare estimates are sensitive to the definition of the choice set welfare measures of site closures differ in varying ways depending on the familiarity level of the sites in question

a revealed preference approach to the measurement of congestion in travel cost models abstract travel cost models are regularly used to determine the value of recreational sites or particular site characteristics yet congestion a key site attribute is often excluded from such analyses one reason for this omission is that congestion is determined in equilibrium by the process of individuals sorting across sites and thus presents significant endogeneity problems this paper illustrates this source of endogeneity describes how previous research has dealt with it using stated preference techniques and describes an instrumental variables approach to address it in a revealed preference context we demonstrate that failing to address the endogeneity of congestion leads one to dramatically understate its costs we apply our technique to the valuation of a large recreational fishing site in wisconsin lake winnebago which if eliminated would induce significant re sorting of anglers amongst remaining sites ignoring congestion leads to an understatement of the lake s value by more than 50

narrow choice sets in a random utility model of recreation demand we consider the implications of narrow choice sets on welfare estimation in a random utility model of recreation demand we hypothesize that careful formulation of the choice set focusing on the sites of policy interest and their closest substitutes will give reasonably accurate welfare estimates we use nearby sites as close substitutes and treat more distant sites as aggregate alternatives in our application to fishing in maine we find that the welfare estimates are rather sensitive to narrowing choice sets in this manner the sensitivity largely tracts variation in the estimated travel cost coefficient across the different models considered