technological regimes schumpeterian patterns of innovation and firm level productivity growth the paper investigates the relationships between technological regimes and firm level productivity performance and it explores how such a relationship differs in different schumpeterian patterns of innovation the analysis makes use of a rich dataset containing data on innovation and other economic characteristics of a large representative sample of norwegian firms in manufacturing and service industries for the period 1998 2004 first we decompose tfp growth into technical progress and efficiency changes by means of data envelopment analysis we then estimate an empirical model that relates these two productivity components to the characteristics of technological regimes and a set of other firm specific factors the results indicate that 1 tfp growth has mainly been achieved through technical progress while technical efficiency has on average decreased 2 the characteristics of technological regimes are important determinants of firm level productivity growth but their impacts on technical progress are different from the effects on efficiency change 3 the estimated model works differently in the two schumpeterian regimes technical progress has been more dynamic in schumpeter mark ii industries while efficiency change has been more important in schumpeter mark i markets

efficient mechanisms for bilateral trading we consider bargaining problems between one buyer and one seller for a single object the seller s valuation and the buyer s valuation for the object are assumed to be independent random variables and each individual s valuation is unknown to the other we characterize the set of allocation mechanisms that are bayesian incentive compatible and individually rational and show the general impossibility of ex post efficient mechanisms without outside subsidies for a wide class of problems we show how to compute mechanisms that maximize expected total gains from trade and mechanisms that can maximize a broker s expected profit journal of economic literature classification number 026

new firm startups technology and macroeconomic fluctuations new firm startup activity is examined within a framework pooling a cross section of 117 industries over six time periods between 1976 and 1986 a model is introduced relating startup activity both to elements of the business cycle in particular the macroeconomic growth rate the cost of capital and the unemployment rate and to industry specific characteristics especially the technological conditions underlying the industry the pooled cross section regression results suggest that macroeconomic fluctuations as well as industry specific elements contribute to startup activity while new firm startups respond positively to macroeconomic growth they are promoted by a low cost of capital and high unemployment rate a somewhat surprising result is that new firm startups are not apparently deterred in capital intensive industries and where r d expenditures play an important role the empirical results suggest that new firms may be able to overcome their inherent size and experience disadvantages in such markets through exploiting university research and pursuing innovative activity

demographic change and policy responses implications for the global economy the fertility declines associated with the final phase of the global demographic transition have led to slower population growth and accelerated ageing in developed countries and in several advanced developing countries a global demographic and economic model is used to assess the implications of these changes for population sizes age gender distributions labour force growth and their implications for economic performance a baseline projection that incorporates declining fertility is compared with a hypothetical constant population growth scenario the results show that slower population growth and ageing reduces average saving rates in industrial regions yet global investment demand is also slowed and saving rates rise in developing regions so there is no net tightening of financial markets increased aged labour force participation considered one solution to the resulting rise in aged dependency in advanced regions is found to redistribute investment in favour of the industrialised regions and hence to accelerate their per capita income growth while conferring on the other regions compensatory terms of trade improvements the alternative of replacement migration is found to require inconceivably large population movements it also impairs real per capita growth in destination regions but by least in western europe where the terms of trade are improved by the immigration

sources procedures and microeconomic effects of innovation fabio arcangeli paul david frank engelman christopher freeman massimo moggi richard nelson luigi orsenigo nathan rosenberg michele salvati g n von tunzelman two anonymous referees and the participants at the meeting of the committee on distribution growth and technical progress of the italian national research council cnr rome november 16 1985 have helped with various redraftings a particularly grateful acknowledgment is for the insightful and patient help of moses abramovitz this work has been undertaken at the science policy research unit spru university of sussex as part of the research program of the designated research centre sponsored by the economic and social research council esrc earlier support to the research that led to this paper by the italian national research council cnr is also gratefully acknowledged the statistical research has been undertaken with the assistance of stephano brioschi ilaria fornari and giovannu prennushi

technological regimes and schumpeterian patterns of innovation this paper proposes that the specific pattern of innovative activities in an industry can be explained as the outcome of different technological learning regimes a technological regime is defined by the particular combination of technological opportunities appropriability of innovations cumulativeness of technical advances and properties of the knowledge base building upon the distinction between schumpeter mark i and schumpeter mark ii industries this paper provides empirical estimates of the relationships between indicators of the schumpeterian patterns of innovation concentration of innovative activities stability in the hierarchy of innovators and importance of new innovators and indicators of the variables defining technological regimes

preferences over solutions to the bargaining problem there are several solutions to the nash bargaining problem in the literature since various authors have expressed preferences for one solution over another we find it useful to study preferences over solutions in their own right we identify a set of appealing axioms on such preferences that lead to unanimity in the choice of solution which turns out to be the solution of nash

money burning and multiple equilibria in bargaining abstract this paper synthesizes recent work on delay and multiple equilibria in complete information rubinstein bargaining we identify a general principle money burning underlying prior results and develop a general model of the phenomena money burning is a threat by one player to destroy surplus which can serve to enhance that player s bargaining power if it is credible our results show that the uniqueness and efficiency properties of the subgame perfect equilibrium of rubinstein bargaining are vulnerable to players ability to burn money journal of economic literature classification number 026

fertility and savings contractions in china long run global implications following three decades of rapid but unbalanced economic growth china s reform agendas are set to rebalance the economy towards consumption while maintaining strong gdp growth headwinds include a demographic contraction that will bring negative labour force growth and rapid ageing rising aged dependency combined with lower saving rates will rebalance the economy but they will reduce both gdp growth and real per capita income while an effective two child policy could sustain growth and eventually mitigate the aged dependency problem it would set real per capita income on a still lower path these conundrums are examined using a global economic and demographic model which shows how the continuing demographic and saving contractions in china would alter the trajectories of both the chinese and global economies

simultaneous offers bargaining with a mediator abstract an arbitrator is often introduced into bargaining to avoid disagreement the arbitrator s role is to impose some agreement when negotiators cannot reach an agreement however in models with an arbitrator a fair agreement for negotiators is eliminated from equilibrium outcomes if the arbitrator is biased to avoid disagreement without eliminating the achievability of a fair agreement in equilibrium we consider introducing a mediator while an arbitrator imposes an agreement a mediator can only give advice we analyze a simultaneous offers bargaining model with a mediator and obtain the following desirable results first disagreement is not supported as an outcome of a stationary subgame perfect equilibrium sspe second even if a mediator is biased the fair agreement in the sense of the nash bargaining solution nbs is always one of the sspe agreements finally if a mediator is fair negotiators always reach an agreement with the nbs in sspe

sectoral patterns of technical change towards a taxonomy and a theory abstract the purpose of the paper is to describe and explain sectoral patterns of technical change as revealed by data on about 2000 significant innovations in britain since 1945 most technological knowledge turns out not to be information that is generally applicable and easily reproducible but specific to firms and applications cumulative in development and varied amongst sectors in source and direction innovating firms principally in electronics and chemicals are relatively big and they develop innovations over a wide range of specific product groups within their principal sector but relatively few outside firms principally in mechanical and instrument engineering are relatively small and specialised and they exist in symbiosis with large firms in scale intensive sectors like metal manufacture and vehicles who make a significant contribution to their own process technology in textile firms on the other hand most process innovations come from suppliers these characteristics and variations can be classified in a three part taxonomy based on firms 1 supplier dominated 2 production intensive 3 science based they can be explained by sources of technology requirements of users and possibilities for appropriation this explanation has implications for our understanding of the sources and directions of technical change firms diversification behaviour the dynamic relationship between technology and industrial structure and the formation of technological skills and advantages at the level of the firm the region and the country

technology and the dynamics of industrial structures an empirical mapping of dutch manufacturing this paper explores the empirical link between on the one hand innovation and on the other hand industrial structure and dynamics in the netherlands we use the concept of technological regimes as the guiding framework to interpret this relationship the data are drawn from the production statistics and the business register of manufacturing firms in the netherlands and the second community innovation survey a classification of technological regimes that refines pavitt s taxonomy is applied to the data our analysis is aimed at identifying the variables that are best able to discriminate between technological regimes for our dutch case we find that a mix of innovation related and market structure related variables account for most variability and broad differences across regimes dynamic market structure variables account for an additional share of variability and finer differences across regimes overall we conclude that the concept of technological regimes provides a useful framework that helps to shed further light on the relationship between innovation and market structure

perfect equilibria in a model of bargaining with arbitration abstract we consider an alternating offer bargaining model in which the players may agree to call in an arbitrator in case of disagreement the main message of our study is that the mere presence of an arbitrator who can only become active with the consent of both parties in the background of negotiations may entirely drive their outcome we compare our results with those obtained in models with outside options journal of economic literature classification number c78

r d appropriability opportunity and market structure new evidence on some schumpeterian hypotheses one of the largest bodies of literature in the field of industrial organization is devoted to the interpretation and testing of several hypotheses advanced by joseph schumpeter 1950 concerning innovation and industrial market structure one set of hypotheses focuses on the role of firm size as a determinant of r d spending and the rate of technological advance another set focuses on the effect of market concentration on r d and technological advance in this paper we reexamine the latter set of hypotheses at the industry level using new data on r d appropriability and technological opportunity collected by levin et al 1984 in a survey of r d executives in 130 industries

final offer arbitration and risk aversion in bargaining negotiations are often conducted under the stipulation that an impasse is to be resolved using final offer arbitration foa in fact foa frequently is not needed in major league baseball for instance more than 80 of the salary negotiations that could go to arbitration instead reach a bargained agreement we show that the risk aversion of at least one side explains this phenomenon we then model pay negotiation in baseball by applying a bargaining solution with a variable disagreement outcome representing foa studying the existence of pure nash equilibrium initial offers and their effects on the player s eventual pay and considering the nash solution as a special case

innovation strategies as a source of persistent innovation an important topic in the recent literature on firms innovation is the question of whether and to what extent firms which innovate once have a higher probability of innovating again in subsequent periods this phenomenon is called the persistence of innovation although the literature has established that innovation persistence is indeed important from an empirical point of view relatively little attention has been paid to identifying the reasons why this is the case in this article we contribute to the literature by proposing that differences in innovation strategies across firms are an important driving force behind innovation persistence we analyses this issue using a panel database constructed from r d and community innovation surveys in norway empirical measures of five innovation strategies are identified by means of an inductive method ad hoc supplier based market driven r d intensive and science based a dynamic random effects probit model is used to estimate whether and to what extent these innovation strategies are a source of persistent innovation the results support the idea that the differences in innovation strategies across firms are an important determinant of the firms probability to repeatedly innovate more concretely we found that firms pursuing the strategies market driven r d intensive and science based were more likely to be persistent innovators we also distinguish the effects of strategy differences on the persistence of product and process innovation in all firms and within high tech versus low tech firms

equilibrium strategies for final offer arbitration there is no median convergence final offer arbitration is a procedure for settling disputes between two parties in which an arbitrator chooses the final offer of the party closest to what he considers a fair settlement this procedure is modeled as a two person zero sum game of imperfect information in which the parties are assumed to know the probability distribution of the arbitrator s fair settlements and to make bids in an infinite strategy space that maximize their expected payoffs necessary and sufficient conditions for there to be local and global equilibria in pure strategies are derived and necessary conditions for mixed strategies in a particular case are found such equilibria when they exist in pure strategies represent bids which are symmetric about the median and for most common distributions are separated from one another by two or more standard deviations this finding suggests that final offer arbitration may not accomplish its avowed purpose of inducing the two parties to converge on what they perceive to be t

the role of mediation in peacemaking and peacekeeping negotiations abstract we develop a model of bargaining that provides a rationale for the difference in the method of negotiation depending on the nature of the conflict we distinguish those negotiations that take place previous to a potential conflict peacekeeping and negotiations inside the conflict peacemaking in these contexts we study the role of a mediator who tries to achieve a certain balance between the efficiency of the agreement and the equality of the final sharing we show that the credibility of the mediator comes from her willingness to impose delays in the negotiation even if that implies costs we also find how the player with a weak bargaining position in a conflict can strategically profit from the mediator s quest for equality finally we show how the capacity of the mediator to induce a higher equality in the sharing is always higher in a peacemaking situation than in a peacekeeping one

demography national savings and international capital flows this paper addresses the relationship between age distribution national savings and the current account balance the results point to substantial demographic effects with increases in both the youth and old age dependency ratios associated with lower savings rates they also point to differential effects on savings and investment and thus to a role for demography in determining the current account balance the estimated demographic effect on the current account balance exceeds 6 percent of gdp over the last three decades for a number of countries and given expected demographic trends is likely to be substantially larger over the coming decades copyright 1998 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

foreign competition domestic knowledge base and innovation activities evidence from chinese high tech industries using panel data analysis for a sample of chinese high technology industries from 1998 to 2008 this study examines how industry characteristics affect industry innovation activities differing from existing studies our research considers the impact of foreign competition on innovation activities at industry level in a large emerging economy the results indicate that the intensity of competition from foreign invested enterprises fies and domestic skill intensity affect industry buy and make activities foreign competition is positively associated with the intensity of buy activity but negatively affects the intensity of make activity further the findings show that domestic skill intensity weakens the impact of foreign competitive pressure on innovation activities our empirical evidence has important policy implications

organizational innovation and its effects organizational innovation its persistence its relationship with technological innovation and their influence on firm performance remain under researched these issues are investigated using an integrated firm level data set obtained from two recent waves of the norwegian community innovation survey cis 3 and 4 and firms financial accounts a heckman two step estimation to ensure against potential sample selection bias was used to demonstrate that between 1999 and 2004 a number of norwegian firms were persistent in organizational innovation and this persistence raised the positive effects of organizational innovation on their performance the results also reveal that many firms undertook and benefited from different types of organizational innovation and such benefits were increased by the combinative effect of organizational and technological innovation the study also found that older and larger firms are more inclined to attempt organizational change while smaller firms are more able to benefit copyright 2012 the author 2012 published by oxford university press on behalf of associazione icc all rights reserved oxford university press

schumpeterian competition technological regimes and learning through knowledge spillover abstract this paper builds upon winter 1984 in which the author discusses two views of schumpeter on competition specifically technological regimes and the role of knowledge spillovers for innovation are examined an agent based simulation model is formulated which captures the relevant aspect of competition between firms in an innovative industry results of the simulation runs indicate that at first the technological development in terms of process and product innovations is better in an industry that is characterized by schumpeter mark ii conditions but the improved technological development is connected with higher prices and profits which could be interpreted as a trade off between static and dynamic efficiency second in both scenarios market and industry concentration rises over time showing a strong separation between successful firms and those lagging behind in technological terms and third surprisingly firms in a schumpeter mark i regime seem to be more technologically specialized furthermore this article proves that a replication of simulation models is possible and useful

the determinants of household saving in china a dynamic panel analysis of provincial data in this paper we conduct a dynamic panel analysis of the determinants of the household saving rate in china using a life cycle model and panel data on chinese provinces for the 1995 2004 period from china s household survey we find that china s household saving rate has been high and rising and that the main determinants of variations over time and over space therein are the lagged saving rate the income growth rate in many cases the real interest rate and in some cases the inflation rate however we find that the variables relating to the age structure of the population have the expected impact on the household saving rate in only one of the four samples these results provide mixed support for the life cycle hypothesis as well as the permanent income hypothesis are consistent with the existence of inertia or persistence and imply that china s household saving rate will remain high for some time to come

tax rates and tax evasion evidence from missing imports in china tax evasion by its very nature is difficult to observe we quantify the effects of tax rates on tax evasion by examining the relationship in china between the tariff schedule and the evasion gap which we define as the difference between hong kong s reported exports to china at the product level and china s reported imports from hong kong our results imply that a one percentage point increase in the tax rate is associated with a 3 percent increase in evasion furthermore the evasion gap is negatively correlated with tax rates on closely related products suggesting that evasion takes place partly through misclassification of imports from higher taxed categories to lower taxed ones in addition to underreporting the value of imports

environmental impacts of china s wto accession abstract china s accession to the wto in 2001 completed the country s entry into the global economy we investigate environmental implications of wto accession there are several hypotheses in this area the scale hypothesis says that production is scaled up and in turn pollution increases the technique hypothesis says that production methods become cleaner and pollution decreases the composition hypothesis says that composition of industries changes and pollution reflects the new composition we analyse the relative strength of the hypotheses by means of an environmental cge model and in the case of air pollution find support for a composition effect in favour of clean industries thanks to the composition effect emissions to air of greenhouse gases fall emissions of particles and so2 also fall but emissions of nox and voc rise since particle and so2 emissions fall we estimate that public health improves

a letter to the editor on wage bargaining abstract the rubinstein perfect information alternating offers bargaining model is problematic when applied to wage negotiations a strike or any other industrial action is not an automatic consequence of a delay in reaching an agreement because production can continue normally also when negotiations take place this paper extends the rubinstein model to incorporate the choice of calling a strike and it is shown that in this model there is no longer a unique subgame perfect equilibrium and that strikes with a length in real time can occur in equilibrium

nash meets rubinstein in final offer arbitration abstract i consider a final offer arbitration model in which the offers are submitted sequentially the parties are allowed to accept offers and the arbitrator maximizes nash s social welfare function i show that backwards induction in this three period model leads to the subgame perfect equilibrium outcome of rubinstein s infinite horizon alternating offer bargaining game

changes in concentration turbulence and the dynamics of market shares most previous studies of the dynamics of industry structure by emphasizing changes in concentration conceal much of the nature of underlying competitive processes here we employ a stochastic fir

fair bargains distributive justice and nash bargaining theory the suppes sen dominance relation is a weak criterion of impartiality in distributive justice i propose its application to nash bargaining theory the nash bargaining solution nbs is characterized by replacing the controversial independence of irrelevant alternatives axiom with an axiom embodying the suppes sen principle this allows a clear interpretation of the nbs as a fair arbitration scheme in addition the proposed characterization is more robust than the standard one with respect to variations in the domain of bargaining problems

trade and financial reform in china impacts on the world economy despite the setbacks from the recent asian currency crisis the ascendancy of asia as an economic centre of world economic activity is likely to continue into the 21st century a key issue that will shape the role of asia and indeed the shape of the world economy in the 21st century is the economic development of china to date china has successfully weathered the currency storm in asia and continues on a program of economic reform if anything the problems of japan and korea provide powerful lessons for other countries undergoing rapid economic growth and structural change these lessons include the importance of a well developed financial sector with lending and investment decisions based on market signals rather than government directives whether china can further integrate smoothly into global markets and sustain the fast growth of the last few decades will be a crucial development in the world economy in this paper we explore the impacts of continued chinese economic reform with a focus on the role of international financial flows both in the adjustment within china as well as in the transmission of chinese reforms to the rest of the world this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

striking for a bargain between two completely informed agents this paper models the wage contract negotiation procedure between a union and a firm as a sequential bargaining process in which the union must decide in each period whether or not to strike for the duration of that period we show that there exist subgame perfect equilibria in which the union engages in several periods of strikes prior to reaching a final agreement although both parties are completely rational and fully informed this has implications for other inefficient phenomena such as tariff wars debt negotiations and wars in general we characterize the set of equilibria show that strikes can occur in real time and discuss extensions of the model such as lockouts and the possibility of multiple recontracting opportunities copyright 1991 by american economic association

bargaining with surplus destruction in a two player alternating offer bargaining model if one player can destroy the surplus to be allocated then the value to bargain for is endogenous except at the beginning even with complete information the model has perfect equilibria with delayed agreement and or surplus destruction the model therefore explains inefficiency and destruction that may appear irrational we characterize the set of equilibrium payoffs and its limiting be haviour as the time between offers vanishes real time delay remains possible even in the limit we also consider the case of surplus destruction that is exogenously limited by the

do exporters gain from vers previous literature has concentrated on the rent transfer accruing to exporting countries when a voluntary export restraint ver is binding this paper studies the efficiency and distributional effects arising when vers force factors out of industries in which they are most productive a theoretical model of the industry under the ver is developed to establish qualitative conditions under which a ver will result in spillovers of exports to unrestricted markets industry contraction and loss in national welfare key parameters of demand and supply are estimated for leather footwear exports from taiwan subject to the u s orderly marketing agreement and their implications explored in a calibrated simulation exercise the results make a strong indictment of vers for most plausible parameter values vers distort exports reduce industry size and cause overall economic losses especially if the affected industry is large

primary commodity prices manufactured goods prices and the terms of trade of developing countries what the long run shows the authors revisit in this article the empirical foundation of the alleged secular decline in the prices of primary commodities relative to those of manufactures they use a newly constructed index of commodity prices and two modified indexes of manufactured good prices and find that from 1900 to 1986 the relative prices of all primary commodities fell on trend by 0 5 percent a year and those of nonfuel primary commodities by 0 6 percent a year they thus confirm the sign but not the magnitude of the trend implicit in the work of prebisch but even the more limited secular decline shown by their relative price indexes may be magnified by an incomplete account of quality improvements in manufactures they then show that the evolution of terms of trade of nonfuel primary commodities is not the same as that of the net barter terms of trade of non oil exporting developing countries finally they find that despite the decline that has probably occurred during the current century in the terms of trade of nonfuel primary commodities the purchasing power of total exports of these products has increased considerably similarly the fall that may have occurred after world war ii in the net barter terms of trade of developing countries seems to have been more than compensated for by the steady improvement in their income terms of trade

technological regimes and industrial dynamics the evidence from dutch manufacturing previous empirical research has shown that the observed inter sectoral variety in the rates and form of organizations of innovations is related is related to the differences in the underlying technological regimes further theoretical models of industry dynamics suggest a similar relationship between the structural and dynamic properties of the firm population of an industry and its underlying technological regime using productivity differences between entrants and incumbents as a proxy for the technological regime of an industry this paper on the grounds of longitudinal firm level database on the dutch manufacturing sector shows that differences between industries with regard to their structural and dynamic properties are strongly related to their underlying technological regimes

schumpeterian patterns of innovation are technology specific this paper examines the patterns of innovative activities at the technological and country levels using patent data for 49 technological classes in six countries usa japan germany france united kingdom and italy it is shown that the patterns of innovative activities differ systematically across technological classes but are remarkably similar across countries for each technological class in particular two groups of technological classes are identified schumpeter mark i and schumpeter mark ii in these two groups innovative activities are structured and organized in different ways the first represents a widening pattern concentration of innovative activities is low innovators are of small economic size stability in the ranking of innovators is low and entry of new innovators is high the second represents a deepening pattern concentration of innovative activities is higher than in the first group innovators are of larger economic size stability in the ranking of innovators is greater and entry is lower the former group comprises mechanical technologies and traditional sectors while the latter includes chemicals and electronics this result suggests that technology related factors such as technological regimes defined in terms of conditions of opportunity appropriability cumulativeness and properties of the knowledge base play a major role in determining the specific pattern of innovative activities of a technological class across countries within these constraints country specific factors introduce differences across countries in the pattern of innovative activities for a specific technological class finally the relationships between the specific features of the patterns of innovative activities and international technological specialization are examined technological advantages appear in general to be linked to higher degrees of asymmetries among innovators higher stability of the ranking of innovators smaller economic size of the innovating firms and lower entry rates of new innovators these relationships however are different in the two groups of technological classes in schumpeter mark i widening technological classes international technological specialization is associated with relatively higher degrees of asymmetries among innovators and entry of new innovators as well as smaller firm size while in schumpeter ii deepening technological classes international technological specialization is linked to the existence of a stable but competitive core of persistent innovators

does trade liberalization harm the environment a new test recent events such as the nafta and the completion of the uruguay round have raised concern over the impact of trade liberalization on the environment in particular it is believed that less stringent environmental standards in developing countries will give them a comparative advantage in pollutionintensive goods using single equation models existing empirical studies have found either no relationship between environment and trade flows or a positive relationship between trade liberalization and the environment this paper develops a simultaneous equations model to estimate this relationship directly incorporating the effects of openness on growth of income and of income growth on environmental damage a two good trade model with endogenous factor supply is estimated using pooled provincial data on chinese water pollution from 1987 1995 estimation of this model reveals that trade liberalization directly aggravates environmental damage via its influence on the terms of trade but indirectly mitigates it via its effect on income growth simulations suggest that trade reform during the period may have had a net beneficial impact on emissions growth

sulfur dioxide control in china policy evolution during the 10th and 11th five year plans and lessons for the future china s central government established national goals to reduce sulfur dioxide so2 emissions by 10 in both the 10th and 11th five year plan periods 2001 2005 and 2006 2010 respectively but the early policies were unsuccessful at reducing emissions emissions increased 28 during the 10th five year plan after adapting a number of policies and introducing new instruments during the 11th five year plan so2 emissions declined by 14 we examine the evolution of these policies their interplay with technical and institutional factors and capture lessons from the 11th five year plan to guide future pollution control programs we find that several factors contributed to achievement of the 11th five year plan so2 reduction goal 1 instrument choice 2 political accountability 3 emission verification 4 political support 5 streamlined targets and 6 political and financial incentives the approach integrated multiple policy instruments market based command and control and administrative instruments specific to the chinese context the evolution of so2 reduction policies and programs has implications for further so2 reductions from power plants and other sources as well as control of other atmospheric pollutants such as nitrogen oxides nox and carbon dioxide co2 in china

strategic bargaining with destructive power abstract this note studies a two player alternating offers bargaining model in which one of the agents has the ability to damage permanently the pie bargained over beside the rubinsteinian bilateral monopoly outcome i show that it is possible to select a harming equilibrium in which the sequence of damages to the pie is endogenously determined

population pessimism and economic optimism in the asian giants the timing of china s and india s demographic transitions and the implications of alternative fertility scenarios are explored here using a global economic model incorporating full demographic behaviour and measures of dependency that accurately reflect the changing proportion of workers rather than working aged in the total population the baseline scenario confirms that demographic change in india may yield significant gains to future real per capita income resulting from a continuing sharp decline in its total dependency ratio for china these gains are largely in the past although the positive contribution of declining youth and working aged dependency to future per capita income will continue to offset the negative impact of rising aged dependency through to 2030 whilst a policy change to foster higher fertility rates and hence more rapid population growth in china might ultimately ease its dependency burden in the short run it will increase it in any case such a course is contradictory to the goal of delivering improvements in real per capita income for india we confirm that the benefits of further fertility reductions in the form of increased real per capita income are substantial

alternating offer games with final offer arbitration abstract i analyze an alternating offer model that integrates the common practice of having an arbitrator determine the outcomes if both players offers are rejected i assume that the arbitrator uses final offer arbitration as in professional baseball i find that if the arbitrator does not excessively favor one player then the unique subgame perfect equilibrium always coincides with the subgame perfect equilibrium outcome in rubinstein s infinite horizon alternating offer game however if the arbitrator sufficiently favors the player making the initial offer then delay occurs in equilibrium

accounting the effects of wto accession on trade embodied emissions evidence from china abstract the indicators of the emissions embodied in exports the balance of emissions embodied in trade and the net emissions contributed by trade are used to measure the trade embodied environmental impacts from various angles a counterfactual scenario of without wto accession is formed as the comparative baseline with the support of a dynamic computable general equilibrium model then the difference between factual and counterfactual scenarios is worked out to reflect the impact of china s wto accession on emissions embodied in trade according to the present study wto accession produced a measureable increment of the emissions embodied in exports through exports expansion which slightly intensified environmental stress in china if considering the difference in emissions embodied in exports and imports then the difference of the balance of emissions embodied in trade between factual and counterfactual scenarios indicate that china has suffered more local emissions than its trade partners after its wto accession if considering the offset effect of imports embodied emissions to domestic emissions then the difference of the net emissions contributed by trade between factual and counterfactual scenarios indicate that wto accession had a trivial effect on aggregating trade embodied emissions the study results suggest that china should continue pushing for trade liberalization and at the same time reduce the adverse effects on the environment by reducing its total emissions intensity of domestic production and optimizing trade structure

do population control policies induce more human capital investment twins birthweight and china s one child policy in this paper we address the issues of whether reductions in fertility increase human capital investments per child and whether twinning can identify the quantity quality q q trade off we show that estimates of the effects of twinning at higher parities on the outcomes of older children in prior studies do not identify family size effects but are confounded by inter child allocation effects because of the endowment deficit and close spacing of twins however examining the effects of twinning by birth order net of the effects stemming from the endowment deficit of twins can provide upper and lower bounds on the trade off between the family size and average child quality our estimates based on data from china indicate that an extra child at parity one or at parity two net of one component of birth endowment effects associated with birth weight significantly decreases the schooling progress the expected college enrolment grades in school and the assessed health of all children in the family despite the evident significant trade off between number of children and child quality in china the findings suggest that the contribution of the one child policy in china to the development of its human capital was modest copyright wiley blackwell

perfect equilibria in a negotiation model rubinstein s alternating offers bargaining model is enriched by assuming that players payoffs in disagreement periods are determined by a normal form game it is shown that such a model can have multiple perfect equilibria including inefficient ones provided that players are sufficiently patient delay is possible even though there is perfect information and the players are fully rational the length of delay depends only on the payoff structure of the disagreement game and not on the discount factor not all feasible and individually rational payoffs of the disagreement game can be supported as average disagreement payoffs indeed some negotiation games have a unique perfect equilibrium with immediate agreement