community based tradable permits for localized pollution this paper considers the assignment of tradable permits representing property rights of an environmental good to community members who are harmed by pollution generated by firms these community members can in turn sell permits to polluters according to their personal preferences for a special case with a sole household market transactions between the household and polluters achieve an efficient pollution level however for a group of households the decentralized market solution fails to yield social efficiency because of competitive consumption of the environmental goods we design a revenue sharing mechanism akin to unitization under which market transactions also achieve efficient resource allocation importantly in some cases efficiency can be achieved even when regulators are ignorant of the private valuation of the environmental good

internalizing neighborhood externalities the effect of subdivision size and zoning on residential lot prices abstract though land development regulations potentially control neighborhood externalities the developer of a residential subdivision contributes to that control by developing a larger parcel of land this paper reports estimates of the effect of parcel size on the sale price of developed building lots the results indicate that adding an acre to the median development increases lot prices by about 3 amenities appear to be income normal and the return to parcel size is greater in unincorporated areas perhaps due to less intensive governmental control over externalities

avoiding an ecological regime shift is sound economic policy we extend the shallow lake model by adding the capital stock of an industry a government can mitigate the effects of pollution arising from industrial activities by imposing the requirement to abate emissions within this framework two scenarios are examined in the social optimal benchmark the social planner optimally allocates investment in the competitive equilibrium market forces determine the investment in capital but the government can still abate emissions we find that irreversible environmental regime shifts are avoided in the competitive equilibrium by means of a static level of abatement when it is socially optimal to do so

externalities a market model failure we focus here on a set of conceptual problems related to the accepted theory of externalities we are primarily concerned with difficulties that arise when a theoretical system is extended beyond its logical domain this is the practice in externality theory when the market model assuming independent agents is used to analyze physical interdependency the different kinds of dependencies obscure the standard use of the paretian analysis as the issues of rights and efficiency are mixed up the creation of emissions and the creation of externalities are further not held apart producing flows in the efficiency evaluations due to the interdependencies involved actions of both emitter and victim must be taken into account while searching for efficient policies finally we analyze the interrelationships between what is termed the internal structure of the market model and the annexed sphere of externalities we conclude that the accepted policy prescriptions both assume and demand no interrelationships between these two spheres we find the assumption unrealistic and inconsistent as concerns the basic foundations of the market model there are two main traditions addressing externalities the coasean and the pigovian this paper shows that both are vulnerable to the above critique thus the presumption that externality theory is now settled and coherent is seen to be without theoretical support

pigovian taxes which work in the small number case abstract an appropriately conceived pollution tax can achieve a pareto optimal equilibrium which is 1 stable in the presence of myopia 2 not subject to strategic manipulation even in the small number case and 3 resistant to inefficient cost shifting by the participants when transaction costs are low a considerable amount of confusion in the literature exists because different authors use different tax formulas often implicitly and different assumptions regarding conjectural behavior some of this confusion is cleared up by formally presenting various pigovian tax formulas explicitly considering whether there is cournot or stackleberg behavior and comparing the properties of the various configurations

does household electrification supercharge economic development author s lee kenneth miguel edward wolfram catherine abstract in recent years electrification has re emerged as a key priority in low income countries with a particular focus on electrifying households yet the microeconomic literature examining the impacts of electrifying households on economic development has produced a set of conflicting results does household electrification lead to measurable gains in living standards or not focusing on grid electrification we discuss how the divergent conclusions across the literature can be explained by differences in methods interventions potential for spillovers and populations we then use experimental data from lee miguel and wolfram 2019 a field experiment that connected randomly selected households to the grid in rural kenya to show that impacts can vary even across individuals in neighboring villages specifically we show that households that were willing to pay more for a grid electrification may gain more from electrification compared to households that would only connect for free we conclude that access to household electrification alone is not enough to drive meaningful gains in development outcomes instead future initiatives may work better if paired with complementary inputs that allow people to do more with power

a new technique for postsample model selection and validation abstract the model selection and granger causality literatures have focused on insample rather than postsample hypothesis testing this is because postsample model validation periods are usually short whereas the correlations in typical postsample forecast errors require large sample methods a resampling based postsample inference procedure is described which explicitly estimates the uncertainty which its large sample approximation induces in the inference significance levels it produces the procedure is applied to postsample forecasting errors from the ashley et al 1980 study examining granger causation between us consumption and advertising expenditures postsample model validation is apparently feasible but requires longer postsample periods than past studies have allocated

government spending and budget deficits in the industrial economies fiscal policy nouriel roubini and jeffrey sachs this paper examines the evolution of the size of government and of budget deficits in oecd economies we highlight the rapid increase in government spending in the 1970s the sharp rise in budget deficits and public debt after 1973 and the reversal in these trends in the 1980s the increase in the size of government was associated in part with the slowdown in growth after 1973 but also reflected gradual adjustment of the ratio of spending to output towards a long run target which depends on political and institutional characteristics of the economy the political orientation of the government the degree of wage indexation and the degree of stability of the political system such factors also explain the size of budget deficits when faced with an adverse shock subsequent deficit reduction requires a measure of political consensus we note that such consensus is hard to achieve in multi party coalitions in consequence countries with such a political structure tended in consequence countries with such a political structure tended toin consequence countries with such a political structure tended to experience much more rapid increases in their debt gnp ratios

the time varying correlation between uncertainty output and inflation evidence from a dcc garch model abstract using a new uncertainty index from baker et al 2012 we evaluate the time varying correlation between macroeconomic uncertainty inflation and output estimation results from a multivariate dcc garch model reveal that the sign of the correlation between macroeconomic uncertainty and inflation changed from negative to positive during the late 1990s whereas the correlation between uncertainty and output is consistently negative

zoning and the distribution of location rents an empirical analysis of harris county texas the coase theorem presents two criteria for evaluating regulation regulations efficiency relative to private solutions and how the regulation affects the distribution of wealth previous studies of the impact of municipal zoning have focused on coase s first criteria whether zoning raises land values overall this study estimates the transfer of wealth between owners of existing homes that results from the creation of a municipal zoning ordinance we find that property best suited to residential use gains in value while property with relatively higher potential as commercial property experiences a decline in the value we find that zoning is distributive

land use planning and the housing market a comparative review of the uk and the usa this paper provides a review of some of the key articles and research examining the relationship between planning regulation and its impact on the housing market in the uk and the us in both count

the economics of renewable energy support abstract this paper uses theoretical and numerical economic equilibrium models to examine optimal renewable energy re support policies for wind and solar resources in the presence of a carbon externality associated with the use of fossil fuels we emphasize three main issues for policy design the heterogeneity of intermittent natural resources budget neutral financing rules and incentives for carbon mitigation we find that differentiated subsidies for wind and solar while being optimal only yield negligible efficiency gains policies with smart financing of re subsidies which either relax budget neutrality or use polluter pays financing in the context of budget neutral schemes can however approximate socially optimal outcomes our analysis suggests that optimally designed re support policies do not necessarily have to be viewed as a costly second best option when carbon pricing is unavailable

production uncertainty and pollution there has been considerable interest in two sector models in which the production of one of the goods is subject to uncertainty the major papers in this area are by rothenberg and smith 13 batra 1 britto 3 diamond 5 mills 12 and harford and park 8 in the latest of these papers harford and park 8 41 build on a model in mills 12 to show that if constant relative risk aversion r which is mathematically analogous to the pratt arrow measure is less than exceeds or equal to unity the direction of efficient resource flow under uncertainty as compared to certainty is away from the risky sector toward the risky sector or unchanged respectively in their model as in mills 12 the preferences of consumers are represented by a community expected utility function in the present two sector model the risky sector is an industry that is adversely affected by air pollution which is a by product of production in the other industry although there is a deterministic relation between the output and emissions of the polluting stable sector the damage caused to the other sector as a result of any given level of emissions depends upon random variables such as mixing height and wind velocity and is therefore stochastic it is not intuitively obvious whether the results of harford and park 8 hold if the uncertainty in the risky sector is the consequence of production in the stable sector in fact there is substantial dissimilarity in the results if the measure of risk aversion r is less than unity the efficient direction of resource flow is generally though not always toward the risky polluted sector if r equals unity the results also differ with resources shifting under uncertainty in the direction of the risky polluted sector only if r exceeds unity are the results always the same in both models with resources flowing toward the risky sector this paper presents the marginal condition such that under uncertainty the optimal combination of outputs includes less of the stable polluting good and more of the risky pollution sensitive good than would be the case if pollution damage were anticipated with certainty if this marginal condition does not hold the risk averse community may prefer either more or less of the polluting good a narrowed interpretation of the marginal condition is then used to predict the special case in which the efficient flow of resources under uncertainty is toward the polluting sector

the impact of the volatility of monetary policy shocks this paper studies the impact of the volatility of monetary policy using a structural vector auroregression svar model enriched along two dimensions first it allows for time varying variance of monetary policy shocks via a stochastic volatility specification second it allows a dynamic interaction between the level of the endogenous variables in the var and the time varying volatility the analysis establishes that the nominal interest rate output growth and inflation fall in reaction to an increase in the volatility of monetary policy the analysis also develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model enriched with stochastic volatility to monetary policy that generates similar responses and provides a theoretical underpinning of these findings

steering the climate system using inertia to lower the cost of policy common views hold that the efficient way to limit warming to a chosen level is to price carbon emissions at a rate that increases exponentially we show that this hotelling tax on carbon emissions is actually inefficient the least cost policy path takes advantage of the climate system s inertia to delay reducing emissions and allow greater cumulative emissions the efficient carbon tax follows an inverse u shaped path and grows more slowly than the hotelling tax economic models that assume exponentially increasing carbon taxes are overestimating the cost of limiting warming overestimating the efficient near term carbon tax and overvaluing technologies that mature sooner

long memory economic policy uncertainty and forecasting us inflation a bayesian varfima approach abstractwe compare inflation forecasts of a vector autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average varfima model against standard forecasting models u s inflation forecasts improve when controlling for persistence and economic policy uncertainty epu importantly the varfima model comprising of inflation and epu outperforms commonly used inflation forecast models

pigou and coase a mathematical reconciliation abstract this paper provides a rigorous statement of the coase theorem and establishes a formal equivalence between abstract allocative mechanisms attributed to coase and pigou the model proceeds from output functions that reduce to production functions in special cases thereby capturing effects that are obscured by conventional production and cost functions the model also emphasizes fundamental differences in the characteristics of inputs particularly land that are implied in the construction of externality stories finally the model embodies a clear distinction between local e g nuisance and global e g pollution externalities the coase theorem as stated is valid only in the former case

economic policy uncertainty in the us does it matter for the euro area abstract we investigate the effects of a us economic policy uncertainty shock on some euro area macroeconomic aggregates via structural vars we model the indicators of economic policy uncertainty recently developed by baker et al 2013 jointly with the aggregate price indexes and alternative indicators of the business cycle for the two above indicated economic areas according to our svars a one standard deviation shock to us economic policy uncertainty leads to a statistically significant fall in the european industrial production and prices of 0 12 and 0 06 respectively the contribution of the us uncertainty shock on the european aggregates is shown to be quantitatively larger than the one exerted by an euro area specific uncertainty shock

an analysis of minimum frontage zoning to preserve lakefront amenities the development of lakefront property in northern wisconsin has prompted in several towns minimum frontage zoning stricter than the state standard such zoning generates an economic loss by constraining development development effect and an economic gain by preserving environmental amenities amenity effect estimation of a hedonic price function for lakefront property in northern wisconsin quantifies these competing effects the estimation indicates that at the current margin the economic loss from the development effect is negligible and the economic gain from the amenity effect may be considerable raising frontage prices by an average of 21 5

coasean bargaining in the presence of pigouvian taxation coasean arguments against the pigouvian perspective are well established a central tenet in this criticism argues that a pigouvian tax may be a source of inefficiency if parties were to bargain in the presence of a pigouvian tax allocative inefficiencies would occur the so called buchanan stubblebine turvey theorem by analyzing a coasean environment where the appropriation of property rights is costly we show coasean bargaining in the presence of a pre existing pigouvian tax may be superior this has implications for policy where dual regulatory environments exist such as regulation at the state and federal level as well as environmental liability and litigation

elements of an economic justification for municipal zoning abstract the possibility that externalities will produce a nonconvexity in the social production set limits the application of both the coase and pigou solutions for achieving an optimal allocation of land resources conditions on relative land prices are derived which indicate that external effects are strong enough to introduce a nonconvexity into the production set these conditions were not fulfilled in a sample of single family and multifamily dwellings in foster city california this does not preclude the possibility that they are fulfilled in cases of more severe external effects

the economic theory of zoning a critical review municipal zoning regulations are the most important way in which local governments affect housing markets numerous studies have been undertaken to analyze the impact of zoning on housing and land prices on population density and on welfare however despite the volume of previous research there is little agreement on the effects of zoning or how to properly analyze those effects several papers have reviewed the empirical literature on zoning this review focuses on the theory of zoning specifically on how zoning is modeled especially whether zoning is embedded in an urban model and the implications derived from these models for the impact of zoning on welfare and housing prices we divide the effects of zoning on economic agents into six broad categories supply side effects demand side effects tiebout effects externality effects endogenous zoning and rent seeking behavior supply side effects concern how zoning affects the suppliers of housing services and the land market demand side effects concern how zoning affects consumers choice of the optimal consumption bundle especially the choice of housing characteristics tiebout effects result from consumer mo

controlling the monopolistic polluter nihilism or eclecticism abstract this paper is concerned with the consequences of pollution control when the polluter is a monopolist who can choose between abating pollution by reducing output and by adopting a less polluting technology it is suggested that the risk of welfare losses resulting from control policy is lower when technology is flexible than when it is rigid nevertheless some risk does remain so the paper concludes with a discussion of the possible use of selective control instruments to keep the risk to a minimum

social interaction effects and connection to electricity experimental evidence from rural ethiopia abstractthis article assesses the importance of social interactions in determining an individual s choice to connect to an electrical grid using an original data set on a new rural electrification program in ethiopia combining global positioning system information with random allocation of discount vouchers for connection to the grid we show that neighbors connection behaviors have large effects on a household s connection decision this effect is also shown to decrease by distance no peer effect is found for neighbors living farther than 100 meters away evidence also suggests that expectation interactions through social learning of the benefits of electricity or constraint interactions through direct externalities of one s connection on others well being are unlikely to fully account for these effects and that preference interactions through a keeping up with neighbors type of mechanism appear to be a plausible explanation we discuss implications for further research and the design of dev

forecasting aggregate retail sales the case of south africa abstract forecasting aggregate retail sales may improve portfolio investors ability to predict movements in the stock prices of retail chains this paper uses 26 23 single and 3 combination forecasting models to forecast south africa s aggregate seasonal retail sales we use data from 1970 01 2012 05 with 1987 01 2012 05 as the out of sample period unlike the previous literature on retail sales forecasting we not only look at a wide array of linear and nonlinear models but also generate multi step ahead forecasts using a real time recursive estimation scheme over the out of sample period to better mimic the practical scenario faced by economic agents making retailing decisions in addition we deviate from the uniform symmetric quadratic loss function typically used in forecast evaluation exercises by considering loss functions that overweight the forecast error in booms and recessions focusing on the results of single models alone shows that their performances differ greatly across forecast horizons and for different weighting schemes with no unique model performing the best across various scenarios however combination forecast models especially the discounted mean square forecast error method which weighs current information more than past not only produced better forecasts but were also largely unaffected by business cycles and time horizons this result along with individual nonlinear models performing better than linear models led us to conclude that theoretical research on retail sales should look at developing dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models that not only incorporate learning behavior but also allow the behavioral parameters of the model to be state dependent to account for regime switching behavior across alternative states of the economy

is there a role for uncertainty in forecasting output growth in oecd countries evidence from a time varying parameter panel vector autoregressive model this paper uses a time varying parameter panel vector autoregressive tvp pvar model to analyze the role played by domestic and us news based measures of uncertainty in forecasting the growth of industrial production of 12 organisation for economic co operation and development oecd countries based on a monthly out of sample period of 2009 06 to 2017 05 given an in sample of 2003 03 to 2009 05 there are only 46 of cases where domestic uncertainty can improve the forecast of output growth relative to a baseline monetary tvp pvar model which includes inflation interest rate and nominal exchange rate growth besides output growth moreover including us uncertainty does not necessarily improve the forecasting performance of output growth from the tvp pvar model which includes only the domestic uncertainty along with the baseline variables so in general while uncertainty is important in predicting the future path of output growth in the 12 advanced economies considered a forecaster can do better in majority of the instances by just considering the information from standard macroeconomic variables