technology adoption under production uncertainty theory and application to irrigation technology we propose a theoretical framework to analyze the conditions under which a farmer facing production uncertainty due to a possible water shortage and incomplete information will adopt a more efficient irrigation technology a reduced form of this model is empirically estimated using a sample of 265 farms located in crete greece the empirical results suggest that farmers choose to adopt the new technology in order to hedge against production risk in addition we show that the farmer s human capital also plays a significant role in the decision to adopt modern more efficient irrigation equipment

factors affecting drivers willingness to pay for biofuels the case of italy biofuels represent a promising alternative to substitute fossil fuels and given the relevance of environmental impacts of the transport sector policy initiatives worldwide aim at supporting the shift towards such cleaner energy source acknowledging the crucial role that biofuels will play in years to come in the energetic paradigm the study aims at investigating key determinants of drivers willingness to pay for biofuels focusing on a sample of 260 individuals from northern italy n 260 in line with recent research on consumer behavior socio demographics are not good predictors of drivers willingness to pay surprisingly on the other hand knowledge of the topic is negatively correlated to willingness to pay so that the more people know about biofuels the less they are willing to pay a premium price moreover certification is not an effective tool to convince drivers of the eco friendliness of biofuels hence spurring willingness to pay possible explanations of the research findings as well as policy implications are discussed in detail along with suggestions for future research on the topic

income generating effects of biofuel policies a meta analysis of the cge literature abstract while the production of biofuels has expanded in recent years findings in the literature on its impact on economic growth and development remain contradictory this paper presents a meta analysis of computable general equilibrium cge studies published between 2006 and 2017 on the effect of biofuel production on economic development worldwide using 30 cge studies we found that biofuel supportive policies generated significant impacts on gdp and household incomes cge studies included in our database reported an average 0 25 percentage point increase in gdp and a 0 49 percentage point increase in household incomes we also found that results were driven by several key features of the cge studies included in our database we investigated features such as biofuel type geographic area and characteristics of the cge models employed we found that biofuel expansion has heterogeneous effects in developed versus emerging countries simulations on longer time periods and in multi country studies led to results that indicate higher impacts of biofuel expansion on gdp growth and household incomes moreover simulations with an increase in agricultural productivity indicate positive welfare impact gains unlike simulations with land expansion lastly we found that biodiesel development leads to higher welfare impact gains than that of bioethanol

social networks and technology adoption in northern mozambique despite their potentially strong impact on poverty agricultural innovations are often adopted slowly using a unique household dataset on sunflower adoption in mozambique we analyse whether and how individual adoption decisions depend upon the choices of others in the same social networks since farmers anticipate that they will share information with others we expect farmers to be more likely to adopt when they know many other adopters dynamic considerations however suggest that farmers who know many adopters might strategically delay adoption to free ride on the information gathered by others we present empirical evidence that shows that the relationship between the probability of adoption and the number of known adopters is shaped as an inverse u in line with information sharing the network effect is stronger for farmers who report discussing agriculture with others the data contains information which is needed to ameliorate the identification issues that commonly arise in this context in particular social networks are precisely identified and in addition we can control for village heterogeneity and endogenous group formation

how the market solves an assignment problem the matching of lawyers with legal claims in the market for lawyers observable data on promotion and turnover can be explained by reference to the idea that there is positive assortative mating of lawyers and legal claims there is a scale of resources effect under which it is optimal to assign larger claims to lawyers of higher quality in a law firm the institution of tenure performs a sorting function lawyers found to be of high quality are given tenured positions and the rest leave the value of legal claims handled by a firm determines its sorting problem which in turn determines its promotion ladder and turnover

testing the stochastic structure of production a flexible moment based approach conventional production function specifications are shown to impose restrictions on the probability distribution of output that cannot be tested with the conventional models these restrictions have important implications for firm behavior under uncertainty a flexible representation of a firm s stochastic technology is developed based on the moments of the probability distribution of output these moments are a unique representation of the technology and are functions of inputs large sample estimators are developed for a linear moment model that is sufficiently flexible to test the restrictions implied by conventional production function specifications the flexible moment based approach is applied to milk production data the first three moments of output are statistically significant functions of inputs the cross moment restrictions implied by conventional models are rejected

the alcohol program the rational for the launching of the alcohol program from sugarcane in brazil in the mid 1970 s is described as an answer to the first oil crisis as well as a solution to the problem of the fluctuating sugar prices in the international market the technical characteristics of ethanol as a fuel are given as well as a discussion of the evolution of the cost of production environmental and social consequences regarding costs ethanol production was close to 100 dollars a barrel in the initial stages of the program in 1980 falling rapidly due to economies of scale and technological progress to half that value in 1990 followed by a slower decline in recent years considering the hard currency saved by avoiding oil importation through the significant displacement of gasoline by ethanol and the decrease in the amount of external debt that the displaced oil importation was able to provide it is possible to demonstrate that the alcohol program has been an efficient way of exchanging dollar debt by national currency subsidies which are paid by the liquid fossil fuel users even with this economic gains for society the continuity of the program is difficult to maintain two solutions to this problem are discussed internal expansion of the use of ethanol and exports to industrialized countries where it could be used as an octane enhancer the main attractiveness of the program the reduction of co2 emissions as compared to fossil fuels is stressed mainly as a solution for industrialized countries to fulfill their commitments with the united nations framework climate change convention

the welfare effects of crop biodiversity as an adaptation to climate shocks in kenya abstract this paper investigates the effects of crop biodiversity on farm income and production risk using a large panel dataset of rural households in kenya we consider three different metrics of in situ on farm crop diversification richness evenness and concentration we apply a partial moments based model to test the effects of each strategy on welfare defined as expected crop income variability variance and downside risk skewness our comprehensive econometric approach differentiates climatic shocks weather and climate change the results suggest that the benefits from greater diversification in terms of enhanced land productivity and lower production costs could surpass the foregone benefit from greater efficiency associated with more concentrated production systems crop richness and evenness each reduce exposure to crop income risk especially for more vulnerable farmers who produce below the expected revenue threshold farmers who rely on greater crop specialization on the contrary are more exposed to crop income risk

proposal for a sustainability evaluation framework for bioenergy production systems using the mesmis methodology abstract the bioenergy economy promises to stimulate the local economic growth and improve the welfare of people living in rural areas to accomplish this there is global consensus on the sustainability indicators that must be evaluated in bioenergy production systems bpss however the utilization of these indicators has several constraints such as their interpretation and application in developing countries in addition to the inherent complexity of bpss here we propose a sustainability framework applicable to bpss first we use the framework for assessing the sustainability of the natural resource management systems mesmis methodology to define a bps and derive economic environmental and social indicators after that we use the distance to target weighting method to describe a sustainability gradient of five levels for each indicator finally we use the sustainability gradient to normalize the indicators and thereby weight and aggregate the indicators into a sustainability index si after the application of the mesmis methodology a bps was defined as three interrelated subsystems 1 the biomass subsystem dedicated to the feedstock supply 2 the transformation subsystem dedicated to convert the feedstock into bioenergy and 3 the social subsystem that provides the workforce this sustainability framework allows comparing two or more bpss in cross sectional and longitudinal studies a total of 7 economic indicators 10 environmental indicators and 11 social indicators were described in terms of a sustainability gradient the sustainability gradient converts the indicators to comparable units then we propose to aggregate these indicators into three subindices by evaluated area an economic subindex an environmental subindex and a social subindex each subindex ranges from 0 for an unsustainable bps to 5 for a highly sustainable bps the si integrates these three subindices giving the same relevance to the economic environmental and social areas

ukraine and the great biofuel potential a political material flow analysis ukraine was once considered the breadbasket of the soviet union its agriculture subject to both extensification and intensification measures following the dissolution of the soviet union both these processes were reversed giving modern day ukraine the image of untapped agricultural potential alongside the country s proximity to the european union and its access to the black sea this has made ukraine a key candidate as a global supplier of feedstock for biofuel demand for the latter is rising noticeably especially in the wake of current european and international blending targets for liquid biofuels ukraine has responded with a number of initiatives to further biofuel feedstock production we have compiled a material flow account for ukraine focusing especially on the development of the agricultural sector since the early 1990s by complementing this physical account with an in depth analysis of political and economic developments we are able to trace the impact of rising demand for biofuel feedstock on ukraine we find that the attempt to establish a biofuel sector based largely on rapeseed was not successful but has nonetheless left the country at a cross road in the development of both its economy and its resource use

carbon leakage the green paradox and perfect future markets policies of lowering carbon demand may aggravate instead of alleviate climate change green paradox in a two period three country general equilibrium model with finite endowment of fossil fuel one country enforces an emissions cap in the first or second periods when that cap is tightened the extent of carbon leakage depends on the interaction of various parameters and elasticities conditions for the green paradox are specified all determinants of carbon leakage resulting from tightening the first period cap work in the opposite direction when the second period cap is tightened tightening the second period cap does not necessarily lead to the green paradox

a review of social sustainability considerations among eu approved voluntary schemes for biofuels with implications for rural livelihoods the rapid expansion of biofuel production and consumption has raised concerns over the social and environmental sustainability of biofuel feedstock production processing and trade the european union eu has thus balanced its commitment to biofuels as one option for meeting its renewable energy targets with sustainability criteria for economic operators supplying biofuels to member states seven voluntary eu sustainability schemes were approved in july 2011 as a means to verify compliance while mandated sustainability criteria have a strong environmental focus a number of these voluntary schemes have social sustainability as a significant component of the requirements put forward for achieving certification as several of these voluntary schemes are incipient thereby limiting evidence on their effectiveness in practice this analysis is based on a comparative analysis of the substantive content or scope of these schemes and the likely procedural effectiveness of the same findings show that while some schemes have considerable coverage of social sustainability concerns poor coverage of some critical issues the presence of schemes lacking any social sustainability requirements and gaps in procedural rules are likely to undermine the likelihood that social sustainability is achieved through these schemes or the eu sustainability policies lending credibility to them

climate consequences of low carbon fuels the united states renewable fuel standard abstract a common strategy for reducing greenhouse gas ghg emissions from energy use is to increase the supply of low carbon alternatives however increasing supply tends to lower energy prices which encourages additional fuel consumption this fuel market rebound effect can undermine climate change mitigation strategies even to the point where efforts to reduce ghg emissions by increasing the supply of low carbon fuels may actually result in increased ghg emissions here we explore how policies that encourage the production of low carbon fuels may result in increased ghg emissions because the resulting increase in energy use overwhelms the benefits of reduced carbon intensity we describe how climate change mitigation strategies should follow a simple rule a low carbon fuel with a carbon intensity of x that of a fossil fuel must displace at least x of that fossil fuel to reduce overall ghg emissions we apply this rule to the united states renewable fuel standard rfs2 we show that absent consideration of the fuel market rebound effect rfs2 appears to reduce ghg emissions but once the fuel market rebound effect is factored in rfs2 actually increases ghg emissions when all fuel ghg intensity targets are met

are biofuels a feasible option abstract recently a number of objections have been raised against the use of ethanol produced from agricultural products such as maize sugarcane wheat or sugar beets as a replacement for gasoline despite some of their advantages such as being cleaner and to some extent renewable we address these objections in this paper topics discussed include the corn connection which was theorized to be a cause of deforestation in the amazonia the rise of food prices due to ethanol production and the real possibilities of ethanol in reducing greenhouse gas emissions it has been shown that such concerns are grossly exaggerated and that ethanol from sugarcane as produced in brazil is the preferred option for the production of fuel not only in terms of cost but also as a favourable energy balance finally the possibility of expanding ethanol production to other sugar producing countries is also discussed

can biomass energy be an efficient policy tool for sustainable development abstract this paper first reviews the potential causality from biomass energy to co2 emissions and economic development within relevant literature later the paper examines statistically the impacts of biomass energy consumption on co2 emissions and gdp in the us to this end paper observes environmental and economic implications of biomass fuel usage throughout energy literature and launches asymmetric causality test to confirm disconfirm the literature output the findings of the tests indicate that biomass energy consumption per capita mitigates co2 emissions per capita and increases gdp per capita eventually upon its output this research asserts that biomass energy consumption can be an efficient policy tool for environmentally sustainable development in the us and that hence biomass production technologies and biomass consumption need to be promoted in other countries as well as in the us on the other hand analyses underline the fact that policy makers should consider as well some potential constraints of biomass energy usage such as land use constraints and carbon leakage from biomass production therefore although this paper explores the remedial impact of biomass on environment and growth one may suggest also that further possible works consider the effects of biomass sources in detail to minimize the some worsening influence of biomass usage on climate change

liquid biofuels in china current status government policies and future opportunities and challenges abstract china like many other countries is promoting the development of liquid biofuel including bioethanol and biodiesel the chinese government has set biofuel development targets for the coming decade and sanctioned a series of supportive policies this paper provides a comprehensive overview of current liquid biofuel development in china related government policies and the potential opportunities and challenges for its future expansion our assessment is based on two rounds of in depth fieldwork and a thorough literature review the assessment shows that the prevailing concern on food security has pushed china to move from cereal based to non cereal based biofuel production emphasis has also been put on utilizing new marginal land for feedstock production our assessment indicates that the targets of china s biofuel development are cautious and feasible but on the other hand there are still severe challenges for the sustainability of such development a better understanding of china s experience in striking a balance between energy security food security and environmental protection would inform the debates across country boundaries and contribute to the efforts for global sustainability

learning about a new technology pineapple in ghana this paper investigates the role of social learning in the diffusion of a new agri cultural technology in ghana we use unique data on farmers communication patterns to define each individual s information neighborhood conditional on many potentially confounding variables we find evidence that farmers adjust their inputs to align with those of their information neighbors who were surpris ingly successful in previous periods the relationship of these input adjustments to experience further indicates the presence of social learning in addition applying the same method to input choices for another crop of known technol ogy correctly indicates an absence of social learning effects jel d83 013 033 q16

is there really a green paradox abstract in the absence of a co2 tax the anticipation of a cheaper renewable backstop increases current emissions of co2 since the date at which renewables are phased in is brought forward and more generally future emissions of co2 will decrease the effect on global warming is unclear green welfare falls if the backstop is relatively expensive and full exhaustion of fossil fuels is optimal but may increase if the backstop is sufficiently cheap relative to the cost of extracting the last drop of fossil fuels plus marginal global warming damages as then it is attractive to leave more fossil fuels unexploited and thus limit co2 emissions we establish these results by analyzing depletion of non renewable fossil fuels followed by a switch to a clean renewable backstop paying attention to timing of the switch and the amount of fossil fuels remaining unexploited we also discuss the potential for limit pricing when the non renewable resource is owned by a monopolist finally we show that if backstops are already used and more backstops become economically viable as the price of fossil fuels rises a lower cost of the backstop will either postpone fossil fuel exhaustion or leave more fossil fuel in situ thus boosting green welfare however if a market economy does not internalize global warming externalities and renewables have not kicked in yet full exhaustion of fossil fuel will occur in finite time and a backstop subsidy always curbs green welfare

the price for biofuels sustainability abstract the production and usage of biofuels has increased worldwide seeking goals of energy security low carbon energy and rural development as biofuels trade increased the european union introduced sustainability regulations in an attempt to reduce the risks associated with biofuels producers were then confronted with costs of sustainability certification in order to access the eu market hopes were that sustainably produced biofuels would be rewarded with higher prices in the eu based on a review of recent literature interviews with traders and price data from platts this paper explores whether sustainability premiums emerged and if so did they represent an attracting feature in the market for sustainable biofuels this article finds that premiums for ethanol and biodiesel evolved differently between 2011 and 2012 but have been in general very small or inexistent with certified fuels becoming the new norm in the market for different reasons there has been an apparent convergence between biofuel policies in the eu and the us as market operators perceive a long term trend for full certification in the biofuels market producers in developing countries are likely to face additional challenges in terms of finance and capacity to cope with the sustainability requirements

the impact of global warming on agriculture a ricardian analysis reply we measure the economic impact of climate on land prices using cross sectional data on climate farmland prices and other economic and geophysical data for almost 3 000 counties in the united states we find that higher temperatures in all seasons except autumn reduce average farm values while more precipitation outside of autumn increases farm values applying the model to a global warming scenario shows a significantly lower estimated impact of global warming on u s agriculture than the traditional production function approach and in one case suggests that even without co sub 2 fertilization global warming may have economic benefits for agriculture 16 refs 5 figs 5 tabs

the impact of student debt on education career and marriage choices of female lawyers abstract we develop and estimate a dynamic model to study the impact of student debt on education career and marriage market choices of young female lawyers our model accounts for several important institutional features of the labor market for lawyers including differences in the work hours across occupational tracks and learning about the prospects of promotion to partner some female students need to take on large amounts of student debt to finance their education and hence start their careers with large amounts of negative wealth the empirical findings suggest that student debt has negative effects on marriage prospects career prospects and investments in educational quality of female lawyers the analysis also provides new insights into the design of public policies that aim to increase public sector employment we show that it is possible to design conditional wage or debt service subsidy programs that significantly increase public sector career choices at reasonable costs

can we meet targets for biofuels and renewable energy in transport given the constraints imposed by policy in agriculture and energy abstract the deployment of biofuels is significantly affected by policy in energy and agriculture in the energy arena concerns regarding the sustainability of biofuel systems and their impact on food prices led to a set of sustainability criteria in eu directive 2009 28 ec on renewable energy in addition the 10 biofuels target by 2020 was replaced with a 10 renewable energy in transport target this allows the share of renewable electricity used by electric vehicles to contribute to the mix in achieving the 2020 target furthermore only biofuel systems that effect a 60 reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 compared with the fuel they replace are allowed to contribute to meeting the target in the agricultural arena cross compliance which is part of eu common agricultural policy dictates the allowable ratio of grassland to total agricultural land and has a significant impact on which biofuels may be supported this paper outlines the impact of these policy areas and their implications for the production and use of biofuels in terms of the 2020 target for 10 renewable transport energy focusing on ireland the policies effectively impose constraints on many conventional energy crop biofuels and reinforce the merits of using biomethane a gaseous biofuel the analysis shows that ireland can potentially satisfy 15 of renewable energy in transport by 2020 allowing for double credit for biofuels from residues and ligno cellulosic materials as per directive 2009 28 ec through the use of indigenous biofuels grass biomethane waste and residue derived biofuels electric vehicles and rapeseed biodiesel

on crop biodiversity risk exposure and food security in the highlands of ethiopia this paper investigates the effects of crop genetic diversity on farm productivity and production risk in the highlands of ethiopia using a moment based approach the analysis uses a stochastic production function capturing mean variance and skewness effects welfare implications of diversity are evaluated using a certainty equivalent measured as expected income minus a risk premium reflecting the cost of risk we find that the effect of diversity on skewness dominates its effect on variance meaning that diversity reduces the cost of risk the analysis also shows that the beneficial effects of diversity

measuring stochastic technology the case of tulare milk production the flexible moment based approach to production analysis is used to measure the stochastic structure of large scale dairy production in tulare county california this approach is flexible because it does not impose restrictions on the relationships between decision variables and the moments of the probability distribution of output the parameter estimates support the hypothesis that second and third moments are functions of inputs and indicate that capital intensive dairies are riskier the implied behavior of a risk averse dairy manager changed markedly when the effects of inputs on the skewness of the output distribution were included in a decision model

parental and public transfers to young women and their children this paper presents estimates of how an increase in welfare benefits for the welfare eligible affects the provision of parental support in the form of both financial transfers and shared residence based on an overlapping generations framework incorporating game theoretic interactions among parents their adult children and the government the empirical results obtained from two longitudinal data sets indicate that the parents view a dollar of income earned by their daughters as equivalent to a dollar increase in welfare benefits however there exists only a small trade off between the generosity of government aid and the incidence of parental aid data are for the united states and are from the national longitudinal survey of young women for 1968 1984 and the national longitudinal survey of youth for 1979 1984 excerpt

sugar rush prospects for a global ethanol market in 2005 the major economies of the world including the g8 and 5 developing nations mexico india brazil china and south africa along with the united nations the international energy agency and the european union launched the global bioenergy partnership to discuss ways to promote the sustained use and production of biofuels around the globe reflecting growing concerns for finding economically viable substitutes for petroleum this paper examines whether and if a vibrant global market in biofuels based on sugarcane based ethanol is economically feasible the paper finds that while there is already international trading in biofuels it is highly limited compared with its potential in the current climate of accelerating fossil fuel prices biofuels represent an increasingly attractive displacement for some of our fossil fuel addiction not only do they substitute for petrol but they also produce lower emissions the paper finds that sugarcane ethanol could make an important contribution to substituting for a portion of petroleum and also offer potential benefits for international development

a new test of borrowing constraints for education we discuss a simple model in which parents and children make investments in the children s education investments for other purposes and parents can transfer cash to their children we show that for an identifiable set of parent child pairs parents will rationally under invest in their child s education for these parent child pairs additional financial aid will increase educational attainment the model highlights an important feature of higher education finance the expected family contribution efc that is based on income assets and other factors the efc is neither legally guaranteed nor universally offered our model identifies the set of families that are disproportionately likely to not provide their full efc using a common proxy for financial aid we show in data from the health and retirement study that financial aid increases the educational attainment of children whose families are disproportionately likely to under invest in education financial aid has no effect on the educational attainment of children in other families the theory and empirical evidence identifies a set of children who face quantitatively important borrowing constraints for higher education

technological change and risk management an application to the economics of corn production the paper investigates the linkages between technological change and production risk with an application to corn the effects of technology on risk exposure are analyzed we define technological progress to be risk increasing risk decreasing if it increases decreases the relative risk premium the analysis is applied to panel data from wisconsin research stations conditional moments including mean variance and skewness of corn yield grain moisture and corn profit are estimated for different sites we investigate how the trade off between expected return and the risk premium varies over time and over space the empirical results indicate that technological progress contributes to reducing the exposure to risk as well as downside risk in corn production although this effect varies across sites they also stress the role of the relative maturity of corn hybrids as a means of managing risk

substitution between biofuels and fossil fuels is there a green paradox we show that i subsidies for renewable energy policies with the intention of encouraging substitution away from fossil fuels may accentuate climate change damages by hastening fossil fuel extraction and that ii the opposite result holds under some specified conditions we focus on the case of subsidies for renewable resources produced under increasing marginal costs and assume that both the renewable resources and the fossil fuels are currently in use such subsidies have a direct effect and an indirect effect working in opposite directions the direct effect is the reduction in demand for fossil fuels at any given price the indirect effect is the reduction in the current equilibrium price for fossil fuels which tends to increase the amount of fossil fuels demanded whether the sum of the two effects will actually result in an earlier or later date of exhaustion of the stock of fossil fuels depends on the curvature of the demand curve for energy and of the supply curve for the renewable substitute

educational financing and lifetime earnings this paper formulates and estimates a dynamic programming model of optimal educational financing decisions the main purpose of the paper is to measure the effect of short term parental cash transfers received during school on educational borrowing and in school work decisions and on post graduation lifetime earnings the estimated parameters of the model imply that parental cash transfers do not significantly influence post graduation lifetime earnings long term factors such as family background and prior human capital investments are more important parental cash transfers do however significantly determine the decision to borrow or work during school and the level of lifetime consumption

an empirical analysis of the green paradox in china from the perspective of fiscal decentralization abstract while it is generally recognized that the introduction of environmental policy can effectively control carbon emissions the green paradox hypothesis puts forth a new warning about the validity of this policy s implementation this study uses panel data on 29 chinese provinces from 1995 to 2012 to investigate the impact of fiscal decentralization on the functional mechanisms of environmental policy while controlling for the spatial correlations of carbon emission the empirical results indicate that environmental policy alone can achieve the objective of reducing carbon emissions however the chinese style fiscal decentralization makes the environmental policy significantly promote carbon emissions leading to a green paradox moreover we find that the impact of fiscal decentralization on environmental policy varies greatly among different geographical regions and the direct controlled municipalities in addition our study confirms the spatial correlations in china s carbon emissions by using a spatial integration term finally we recommend that emission reduction efforts should be incorporated into the local government s performance evaluation system to improve the institutional environment further differentiated environmental policies and measures should be considered for different provinces to maximize the emission reduction potential

does adaptation to climate change provide food security a micro perspective from ethiopia we examine the driving forces behind farmers decisions to adapt to climate change and the impact of adaptation on farmers food production we investigate whether there are differences in the food production functions of farm households that adapted and those that did not adapt we estimate a simultaneous equations model with endogenous switching to account for the heterogeneity in the decision to adapt or not and for unobservable characteristics of farmers and their farm we compare the expected food production under the actual and counterfactual cases that the farm household adapted or not to climate change we find that the group of farm households that adapted has systematically different characteristics than the group of farm households that did not adapt the relationship between production and average temperature is inverted u shaped for farm households that adapted while it is u shaped for farm households that did not adapt and vice versa in the case of precipitation we find that adaptation increases food production however the impact of adaptation on food production is smaller for the farm households that actually did adapt than for the farm households that did not adapt in the counterfactual case that they adapted

supply push or demand pull strategic recommendations for the responsible development of biofuel in china this study investigates china s biofuel industry the third largest in the world by combining a strength weakness opportunity and threats swot analysis with a method known as fuzzy analytic hierarchy process fahp more specifically the study employs swot analysis to identify the influential factors affecting the development of the biofuel industry in china it then prioritizes their importance using the fahp method the study finds that high production costs competition with other renewable energy resources inconsistent policy and legislation support and poor technical standards are impeding the growth of the biofuel industry of china the study concludes by proposing strategic recommendations for how the industry can be made both leaner more efficient and effective and greener more socially and environmentally sustainable some of these options focuses on improving technical perform adhering to a supply push mentality others focus on improving affordability and consumer awareness adhering to a demand pull mentality

estimating the impact of immigrants on the host country social security system when return migration is an endogenous choice in this paper i examine the impact of immigrants on the social security system in germany when return migration is an endogenous choice for this purpose i develop a dynamic stochastic model of joint return migration and saving decisions that accounts for uncertainty in future employment and income and estimate this model using a longitudinal dataset on immigrants from five different source countries i find that immigrants make positive net contributions to both the pension and unemployment insurance systems in germany regardless of their country of origin and age at entry moreover the magnitudes of the net contributions are remarkable for certain groups return migration plays a critical role in generating these positive net contributions in a counterfactual i examine how much exogenous modeling of the return decision which has been the practice of the literature so far changes immigrants net contributions such a restriction causes a serious misestimation of net contributions i also examine the impact of a counterfactual policy experiment in which financial bonuses are provided conditional on return to certain unemployed immigrants such a policy turns out to be ineffective in a number of dimensions

socioeconomic effects of aviation biofuel production in brazil a scenarios based input output analysis derived from renewable feedstocks aviation biofuel is generally perceived as inherently sustainable however its production involves a wide range of sectors and interacts with different actors in society it is therefore important to understand and evaluate not only the environmental impacts of that process but also its socioeconomic effects at present empirical studies assessing socioeconomic aspects of aviation biofuel are rare in scientific literature the aim of this study therefore is to assess key effects of aviation biofuel production on employment gdp and trade balance a scenarios based input output io analysis was used to evaluate these socioeconomic effects taking brazilian aviation biofuel production to 2050 as an example to address the uncertainty of io analysis we have proposed a stochastic simulation approach for the technical coefficients in the io model four distinct scenarios were developed in each three potential combinations of technologies and feedstocks for producing aviation biofuel were evaluated sugarcane via alcohol to jet atj macauba via hydro processed esters and fatty acids hefa and eucalyptus via fischer tropsch ft among other things we found that the production of aviation biofuel would create around 12 000 65 000 jobs while contributing us 200 1100 million to brazil s gdp under different scenarios with different supply chains the socioeconomic effects calculated deterministically were generally higher than the stochastic outcomes which can be explained by factors such as technological learning and economic growth aviation biofuel production showed large positive net socioeconomic effects on employment and gdp although some of the fossil sectors would be negatively affected overall the macauba hefa chain with the highest effects on employment and gdp and the lowest effects on imports seemed to be the most favorable of the scenarios studied despite the relatively high level of uncertainty associated with it

implications of market mediated emissions and uncertainty for biofuel policies abstract biofuel policies affect global agricultural and oil commodity markets whose response has consequences for greenhouse gas ghg emissions estimates of the net ghg impact of biofuel policies are wide ranging and shrouded in uncertainty we perform a monte carlo experiment using a stylized model of the global liquid fuel market and compare different biofuel policies with respect to global ghg emissions and global oil consumption taking iluc emissions into consideration we find that for the currently commercial biofuels inclusion of iluc emissions as part of the policy rating of biofuels ghg intensity i likely leads to lower emissions ii leads to greater reduction in both domestic and global oil consumption iii leads to higher price of fuels in the home region all compared to when iluc emissions are excluded from the policy rating and iv does not however ensure that emissions absolutely decline owing to fuel market effects which unlike iluc are presently excluded from all existing fuel ghg regulations sensitivity analysis suggests that iluc emissions and the price elasticity of oil supply are the greatest contributors to variance in net global ghg emissions under any given policy

the challenge of measuring biofuel sustainability a stakeholder driven approach applied to the french case measuring biofuel sustainability requires dealing with a wide variety of complex and conflicting values at stake consequently the biofuel capacity to contribute to one specific value cannot lead to any absolute conclusion about the overall sustainability of biofuel the scope of the sustainability concept may vary depending on individuals preferences the time scale and the geographical region based on the 5 pillars sustainability concept that includes social economic environmental legal and cultural considerations the present study proposes to assess several biofuel sustainability options for france by 2030 through a stakeholder driven approach rather than seeking to reach a consensus our approach allows us to capture the wide diversity of stakeholders perspectives and preferences french stakeholders perceive 22 different sustainability criteria for biofuels with a very low level of agreement between the different segments of professions feedstock producers biofuel producers refining industry fuel distributors car manufacturers end users government and ngos in order to operationalize the sustainability assessment a set of indicators has been identified with stakeholders that allows us to measure the capacity of biofuels to fulfill each of their criteria seventeen biofuel options were assessed with regards to economic social environmental cultural and legal considerations allowing the identification of the strengths and weaknesses of each biofuel

price knowledge in household demand for utility services a household s decision to acquire price knowledge is endogenous in the demand for utility services and may affect elasticities and consumption levels a simultaneous equation model with endogenous switching is developed to evaluate the effects of price knowledge and other sources of heterogeneity results indicate informed households were more responsive to average and marginal price signals informed households also use less water but this is due to heterogeneity rather than price knowledge controlling for heterogeneity price knowledge actually increases monthly water usage the implications of accounting for differences in price knowledge in utility demand modeling and demand management policy are discussed

does parents money matter abstract this paper asks whether parents income per se has a positive impact on children s abilities previous research has established that income is positively correlated across generations this does not prove that parents money matters however since income is presumably correlated with ability this paper estimates the impact of parents income by focusing on income variation due to factors union industry and job loss that arguably represent luck i find that changes in parents income due to luck have a negligible impact on children s human capital for most families although parents money does matter for families whose father has low education

biofuel development in ghana policies of expansion and drivers of failure in the jatropha sector abstract biofuel development was mainly promoted in several parts of africa as an energy security or rural development strategy jatropha was the biofuel feedstock that received the most interest across africa from investors however jatropha expansion gave rise to a number of contested issues which produced conflicts winners and losers access to land was at the heart of several of these conflicts though some success stories of individual jatropha projects have been documented the overwhelming majority of these projects in africa have either collapsed or faced significant difficulties understanding the reasons behind the failure of the jatropha sector is an important gap in the academic literature while the lessons learnt from failed projects could inform future policies and practices this literature review synthesizes the key drivers of failure of the jatropha sector in ghana as identified in the literature and complemented through site visits and expert interviews it identifies a number of reasons behind the failure of individual jatropha projects such as poor business planning institutional barriers limited community participation unfair compensation practices obstacles posed by civil society and unconstructive involvement of chiefs the findings indicate the systemic nature of these problems as they often worked synergistically to catalyse the collapse of many jatropha projects in ghana re vitalising the biofuel and especially the jatropha industry is virtually impossible given the current challenges this would require a renewed political interest in ghana particularly to deal with the deficits of the land administration institutions

scaling up biofuels a critical look at expectations performance and governance this editorial is the introduction to a special issue of scaling up biofuels a critical look at expectations performance and governance which assesses biofuels contribution to sustainability governance and upscaling the issue aims to contribute to a more informed evidence based policy debate on the role of bioenergy for sustainable development it comprises six review papers that share a solutions oriented and policy focused approach towards the assessment of sustainability bioenergy production and consumption is not evaluated as an isolated industry or additionality instead it is assessed as an inherent component of the broader social ecological system and history of which it forms a part synthesizing available empirical evidence on performance and contextualizing the evidence in view of expectations and bioenergy governance in and over time the papers address the role of biofuels for climate mitigation their ability to deliver on socio economic policy expectations the actual performance in view of risk anticipation and mitigation the role of state policy considering sector development and sustainability and the ability of certification schemes to deliver on market conversion and quality the synthesis paper draws on the empirical findings to develop a set of sustainability conditions sine qua nons that have to be considered in processes of policy making and upscaling

energy security for india biofuels energy efficiency and food productivity abstract the emergence of biofuel as a renewable energy source offers opportunities for significant climate change mitigation and greater energy independence to many countries at the same time biofuel represents the possibility of substitution between energy and food for developing countries like india which imports over 75 of its crude oil fossil fuels pose two risks global warming pollution and long term risk that oil prices will undermine real living standards this paper examines india s options for managing energy price risk in three ways biofuel development energy efficiency promotion and food productivity improvements our salient results suggest that biodiesel shows promise as a transport fuel substitute that can be produced in ways that fully utilize marginal agricultural resources and hence promote rural livelihoods first generation bioethanol by contrast appears to have a limited ability to offset the impacts of oil price hikes combining the biodiesel expansion policy with energy efficiency improvements and food productivity increases proved to be a more effective strategy to enhance both energy and food security help mitigate climate change and cushion the economy against oil price shocks

application of computable general equilibrium cge to climate change mitigation policy a systematic review abstract with the growing literature related to climate change mitigation measures and policy interventions a systematic review of the application of computable general equilibrium cge model is inevitable therefore this article aims to characterise the relevant studies define a comparative framework to identify the current state of the art and the gaps in applied general equilibrium models firstly the systematic review found a total of 301 research articles from scopus and web of science databases and finally analysed 154 articles based on inclusion and exclusion criteria from 67 refereed journals the review analysis found that application of cge model is very vital in addressing climate change mitigation issues at the national regional and global levels however china attracted the most substantial research interests followed by the usa india and australia among others which are in line with their share of greenhouse gas emissions in the world most of the research themes focus on the carbon tax emission reduction target emission trading renewable energy energy efficiency and carbon capture and storage as primary drivers of low carbon economy nevertheless there is a trend of employing more static cge model compared to the dynamic cge although application of the latter has a limitation of providing right inputs to the macroeconomic policy finally research directions and gaps envision other complementary models such as dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge and agent based model abm for proper policy interventions

how can african agriculture adapt to climate change a counterfactual analysis from ethiopia we analyze the impact of different adaptation strategies on crop net revenues in the nile basin of ethiopia we estimate a multinomial endogenous switching regression model of climate change adaptation and crop net revenues and implement a counterfactual analysis households data are combined with spatial climate data we find that adaptation to climate change based upon a portfolio of strategies significantly increases farm net revenues changing crop varieties has a positive and significant impact on net revenues when coupled with water conservation strategies or soil conservation strategies but not when implemented in isolation jel q54 q56

cropping system diversification conservation tillage and modern seed adoption in ethiopia impacts on household income agrochemical use and demand for labor the type and combination of sustainable agricultural practices saps adopted have a significant effect on agricultural productivity and food security this study develops a multinomial endogenous switching regression model of farmers choice of combination of saps and impacts on maize income and agrochemicals and family labor use in rural ethiopia four primary results were found first adoption of saps increases maize income and the highest payoff is achieved when saps are adopted in combination rather than in isolation second nitrogen fertilizer use is lower in the package that contains system diversification and conservation tillage third conservation tillage increased pesticide application and labor demand perhaps to compensate for reduced tillage however when it is used jointly with system diversification it does not have a significant impact on pesticide and labor use fourth in most cases adoption of a package of saps increases women workload suggesting that agricultural intensification technology interventions may not be gender neutral this implies that policy makers and other stakeholders promoting a combination of technologies can enhance household food security through increasing income and reducing production costs but need to be aware of the potential gender related outcomes

life cycle schooling and dynamic selection bias models and evidence for five cohorts of american males this paper examines an empirical regularity found in many societies that family influences on the probability of transiting from one grade level to the next diminish at higher levels of education we examine the statistical model used to establish the empirical regularity and the intuitive behavioral interpretation often used to rationalize it we show that the implicit economic model assumes myopia the intuitive interpretive model is identified only by imposing arbitrary distributional assumptions onto the data we produce an alternative choice theoretic model with fewer parameters that rationalizes the same data and is not based on arbitrary distributional assumptions

are renewable energy policies climate friendly the role of capacity constraints and market power abstract this paper studies the impacts of renewable energy support policies on energy prices fossil fuel supply and thus carbon emissions from fossil fuels such supports are climate friendly if the renewables are already competitive against fossil fuels but if the renewables are not yet competitive the climate change impacts are often ambiguous and are sensitive to capacity constraints of renewables production and to the fossil fuel market structure if the renewables do not have capacity constraints then the subsidies are subject to the green paradox under perfect competition but might be climate friendly under monopoly supports for capacity constrained renewables under perfect competition lead to more current fossil fuel supply but delay fossil fuel exhaustion time and these effects are reversed under monopoly our results highlight the importance of considering the long term effects on fossil fuel supply as well as capacity constraints and market power in designing renewable energy policies and evaluating their carbon footprints

gender agricultural production and the theory of the household virtually all models of the household assume that the allocation of resources is pareto efficient within many african households agricultural production occurs on many plots controlled by different members of the household pareto efficiency implies that factors should be allocated efficiently across these plots i find in contrast that plots controlled by women are farmed much less intensively than similar plots within the household controlled by men the estimates imply that about 6 percent of output is lost because of inefficient factor allocation within the household the paper suggests a new approach to modeling intrahousehold allocation consistent with the empirical results

the market and consumer welfare effects of mid level ethanol blends in the us fuel market abstract this study examines the prospect that a consumer driven market could eventually replace the myriad regulations and demand quotas in the us ethanol and gasoline fuel market given efficient households that minimize the cost of operating automobiles recent vehicle technology that improves blended fuel substitution and typical market conditions of the last five years blended fuels with 20 ethanol concentration could occupy a volume of 82 2 billion gallons in a 138 3 billion gallon gasoline market the consumer welfare gain associated with blended fuel is 15 9 billion annually for us consumers or about 1000 over the life of a vehicle the ethanol demand associated with a voluntary blended fuel market is 16 4 bgy slightly more than the conventional component of the renewable fuels standard it is time to replace the corn rfs with a free market but an active competition policy in the fuel marketing system may also be required intervention for the impending biomass ethanol industry such as a subsidy or an exemption a carbon tax may also be in order

structural estimates of the intergenerational education correlation using a structural dynamic programming model we investigate the relative importance of family background variables and individual specific abilities in explaining cross sectional differences in schooling attainments and wages each type of ability is the sum of one component correlated with family background variables and a residual orthogonal component which is purely individual specific household background variables especially parents education account for 68 of the explained cross sectional variations in schooling attainments while ability correlated with background variables accounts for 17 and pure individual specific ability accounts for 15 interestingly individual differences in wages are mostly explained by pure individual specific abilities as they account for as much as 73 of the explained variations in wages family background variables account for only 19 while ability endowments correlated with family background account for 8 copyright 2003 john wiley sons ltd

how policies affect international biofuel price linkages abstract we estimate the role of biofuel policies in determining which country is the price leader in world biofuel markets using a cointegration analysis and a vector error correction vec model weekly prices are analyzed for the eu us and brazilian ethanol and biodiesel markets in the 2002 2010 and 2005 2010 time periods respectively the us blender s tax credit and brazil s consumer tax exemption are found to play a role in determining the ethanol prices in other countries for biodiesel our results demonstrate that eu policies the consumer tax exemption and blending target tend to determine the world biodiesel price

job mobility and the market for lawyers this paper studies the life cycle career choices of law school graduates using unique data from the university of michigan law school the model assumes that these graduates act according to the optimal solution of a dynamic optimization problem in which they sequentially choose among five employment sectors the employment sectors are differentiated by pecuniary and nonpecuniary returns promotion and dismissal probabilities and the extent of transferability of human capital the estimation of the model reveals a self selection mechanism based on unobserved heterogeneity in abilities and expected future returns which plays a critical role in reproducing the sector specific nonmonotonic separation hazards observed in the data the underlying self selection mechanism also has implications for policy interventions in the market for lawyers such as loan forgiveness programs

governing biofuels in brazil a comparison of ethanol and biodiesel policies over the last decade brazil has implemented a new and ambitious biofuel program the national program of production and use of biodiesel pnpb when launching this program in 2004 the government stated that it wanted to avoid the same kind of geographical concentration single crop focus dominance of agribusiness and exclusion of family farmers that have occurred with bioethanol production through the proalcool policy since 1975 this paper compares the life histories of the bioethanol and the biodiesel policies of brazil by analyzing their substantive policy content the power and politics of actors that struggle for the design and implementation of the policies and the polity in terms the organization and institutionalization of the policies the paper concludes that both policies have become submerged by and dependent on the polity and politics of primarily the energy and agricultural sectors that operate as the two semi autonomous governance fields this submerging has shaped the substantive contents of biofuels policies and explains why the 2004 biodiesel policy pnpb in spite of its objectives for social inclusion and rural development faces similar problems in implementation as its predecessor the 1975 bioethanol policy proalcool

how to deal with the rebound effect a policy oriented approach policy makers and environmental agencies have echoed concerns brought forward by academics about the need to address the rebound effect for achieving absolute energy and environmental decoupling however such concerns have generally not been translated into tangible policy action the reasons behind this inaction are not fully understood and much remains unknown about the status of the rebound effect issue on the policy agenda and policy pathways available such knowledge gaps may hamper the development of effective policies to address this issue in this paper we examine the extent to and ways in which the rebound effect is considered in policy documents and analyse thirteen specific policy pathways for rebound mitigation the effectiveness of the pathways is scrutinised and conclusions are offered to mitigate rebound effects the main policy conclusions of the paper are that an appropriate policy design and policy mix are key to avoiding undesired outcomes such as the creation of additional rebound effects and environmental trade offs from the discussion economy wide cap and trade systems as well as energy and carbon taxes when designed appropriately emerge as the most effective policies in setting a ceiling for emissions and addressing energy use across the economy

fuelling expectations a policy promise lock in of uk biofuel policy abstract controversy over eu wide biofuel policy resonated within the uk fuelling policy disagreements among uk public authorities they disagreed over how to protect a space for future second generation biofuels which were expected to overcome harm from first generation biofuels the uk government defended rising targets for available biofuels as a necessary stimulus for industry to help fulfil the uk s eu obligations and eventually develop second generation biofuels by contrast parliamentary select committees opposed biofuel targets on grounds that these would instead lock in first generation biofuels thus delaying or pre empting second generation biofuels those disagreements can be explained by different institutional responsibilities and reputational stakes towards promise requirement cycles whereby techno optimistic promises generate future requirements for the actors involved the uk government s stance illustrates a policy promise lock in a dilemma whereby promised support is a requirement for credibility towards technology innovators and thus technoscientific development but may delay the redirection of support from incumbent to preferable emerging technologies thus the sociology of expectations previously applied to technological expectations from technology innovators can be extended to analyse public authorities

does education affect risk aversion evidence from the british education reform individual risk attitudes are frequently used to predict decisions regarding education however using risk attitudes as a control variable for decisions about education has been criticized because of the potential for reverse causality causality between risk aversion and education is unclear and disentangling the different directions it may run is difficult in this study we make the first attempt to investigate the causal effects of education on risk aversion by examining the british education reform of 1972 which increased the duration of compulsory schooling from age 15 to age 16 using regression discontinuity design we find that this additional year of schooling increases the level of risk aversion which is contrary to previous findings in the literature and we also find that this result is particularly strong for individuals with less education this positive causal effect of education on risk aversion might alleviate concerns regarding the endogeneity reverse causality issue when using risk aversion as an explanatory variable for decisions about education the sign would remain credible because the coefficients are underestimated

biofuels what a biopact between north and south could achieve abstract with very few exceptions such as the recent remarks by international energy agency iea head claude mandil commentators on the world s energy issues have yet to recognize the enormous contribution that biofuels producers from the south could make to solving the world s greenhouse gas emission problems and problems to do with the peaking of oil supplies once the equation between biofuels and high cost land intensive cultivation in the north is broken and a quite different scenario involving production in the south is adopted then the possibilities are dramatically changed the argument of this paper is that a transition to substitution of 20 percent of oecd gasoline needs by 2020 could be met from the south by creating the equivalent of 18 brazils over the course of the next decade such an enormous transition will not occur by itself or through the operation of market forces alone it needs an institutional framework one that guarantees for the countries of the north regular supplies of biofuels produced in a responsible manner and guarantees for the countries of the south open markets for the biofuels produced the oecd is in the best position to bring about such an arrangement through taking the initiative of offering developing countries a biopact between north and south thereby creating for the first time a global market for biofuels the launch of an international biofuels forum under the auspices of the un in early 2007 is a step towards the creation of such an international framework where north south issues on biofuels may be fruitfully addressed

in school work experience and the returns to schooling students often accumulate substantial work experience before leaving school because conventional earnings functions do not control for in school work experience their estimates of the return to schooling include the benefit of work experience gained along the way using data from the national longitudinal survey of youth i estimate wage models with and without controls for in school work experience the estimated schooling coefficients are 25 44 higher depending on how i control for ability bias when in school work experience is omitted than when it is included these findings indicate that conventional models significantly overstate the wage effects of school only

the green paradox and budgetary institutions abstract we examine oil production strategies in response to the rise of alternative energy in context of saudi arabia and the united states in a unified simultaneous equation model sem over the period 1976 2015 we investigate the extent to which budget balance behaviour explains the nature of oil production strategies we find that green regulations have a positive impact on u s oil production while an inverse relationship holds for saudi arabia we argue that the nature of budgetary institutions prevents saudi arabia from following a profit maximising behaviour saudi arabia is incentivised to ensure political cohesion through adopting a procyclical fiscal policy rather regulators seem incentivised to channel surplus towards individuals to gain popularity in the united states a thriving shale oil industry is a plausible rationale for u s production strategies also known as a weak green paradox this is problematic for climate change initiatives to reduce global emissions climate experts may wish to pay more attention to the supply side of oil markets when designing decarbonisation plans the results challenge conventional wisdom of the green paradox neglecting the role of incentive structure between different types of oil producers

the economics of poverty traps and persistent poverty an asset based approach abstract longitudinal data on household living standards open the way to a deeper analysis of the nature and extent of poverty while a number of studies have exploited this type of data to distinguish transitory from more chronic forms of income or expenditure poverty this paper develops an asset based approach to poverty analysis that makes it possible to distinguish deep rooted persistent structural poverty from poverty that passes naturally with time due to systemic growth processes drawing on the economic theory of poverty traps and bifurcated accumulation strategies this paper briefly discusses some feasible estimation strategies for empirically identifying poverty traps and long term persistent structural poverty as well as relevant extensions of the popular foster greer thorbecke class of poverty measures the paper closes with reflections on how asset based poverty can be used to underwrite the design of persistent poverty reduction strategies

social and techno economical analysis of biodiesel production in peru peru has introduced a law to promote the use of biofuels with the objective to increase employment strengthening agriculture development providing an economic alternative to illegal drug production in this work the costs of biodiesel production from oil palm and jatropha were analyzed under different scenarios they include the participation of associations of smallholders and commercial producers as raw material provides in biodiesel business in peru the scenarios considered have a strong social dimension in which they explicitly consider how productions 39 costs change when smallholders supply a proportion of the feedstock to the industry production cost profiles were generated using the chemical process simulation and economical evaluation software packages provided by aspen technology total production cost found for oil palm biodiesel production ranged between 0 23 and 0 31 usd l and jatropha biodiesel production costs were between 0 84 and 0 87 usd l these production costs were analyzed and compared to biodiesel ex factory prices and diesel fuel production cost factors the results suggest that including smallholders in the supply chain can be under some conditions competitive with liquid biofuel production systems that are purely large scale c 2012 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

renewable energy an efficient mechanism to improve gdp abstract this article analyzes the effects of renewable energy on gdp for 116 economies in 2003 through structural equation modeling sem approach in order to decipher the mechanism of how the use of renewables improves macroeconomic efficiency we decompose gdp by the expenditure approach although previous theory predicts positive effects of renewables on capital formation and trade balance the sem results show that renewables have a significant positive influence on capital formation only the result that renewables do not have a significant impact on trade balance implies that renewables do not have an import substitution effect thus we confirm the positive relationship between renewable energy and gdp through the path of increasing capital formation but not for the path of increasing trade balance

general equilibrium effects of green technological progress this paper demonstrates that technological progress in production of renewable energy can influence the extraction path of fossil fuels indirectly by a change in the equilibrium interest rate we show in a simple model that the indirect effect can be so strong that first period or even aggregate extraction levels rise with green technological progress contrary to popular expectations

stated and revealed heterogeneous risk preferences in educational choice abstract we develop a structural microeconometric model of educational choice with unobserved heterogeneity in risk aversion and estimate the model parameters using panel survey data we assess the credibility of the model by linking the estimated structural parameters of risk aversion to the self reported willingness to take risks which is directly elicited in the survey the risk aversion parameters revealed from educational choices decrease with the willingness to take risks stated by the survey respondents this indicates consistency between stated and revealed risk preferences we suggest that this method could be applied more generally to support or reject the joint validity of structural models and survey measures of preferences

using an extended lmdi model to explore techno economic drivers of energy related industrial co2 emission changes a case study for shanghai china although investment and r d activities can exert significant effects on energy related industrial co2 emissions eice related factors have not been fairly uncovered in the existing index decomposition studies this paper extends the previous logarithmic mean divisia index lmdi decomposition model by introducing three novel factors r d intensity investment intensity and r d efficiency the extended model not only considers the conventional drivers of eice but also reflects the microeconomic effects of investment and r d behaviors on eice furthermore taking shanghai as an example which is the economic center and leading co2 emitter in china we use the extended model to decompose and explain eice changes also we incorporate renewable energy sources into the proposed model to carry out an alternative decomposition analysis at shanghai s entire industrial level the results show that among conventional macroeconomic factors expanding output scale is mainly responsible for the increase in eice and industrial structure adjustment is the most significant factor in mitigating eice regardless of renewable energy sources the emission reduction effect of energy intensity focused on by the chinese government is less than the expected due to the rebound effect but the introduction of renewable energy sources intensifies its mitigating effect partly resulting from the transmission from the abating effect of industrial structure adjustment the effect of energy structure is the weakest although all the three novel factors exert significant effects on eice they are more sensitive to policy interventions than conventional factors r d intensity presents an obvious mitigating effect while investment intensity and r d efficiency display an overall promotion effect with some volatility the introduction of renewable energy sources intensifies the promotion effect of r d efficiency as a result of the green paradox effect finally we propose that co2 mitigation efforts should be made by considering both macroeconomic and microeconomic factors in order to achieve a desirable emission reduction effect

do risk aversion and wages explain educational choices abstract we study a model in which a student s investment in education maximizes expected utility conditional on public and private information the model takes future wage risk into account and treats the direct and opportunity costs of education as additional sources of risk in particular the time needed to complete a degree is random the data show that time to degree is substantially dispersed conditional on the highest degree we find significant and substantial effects of expected returns on individual education choices the risk affecting education costs and in particular the randomness of time to degree also plays an important role in explaining enrollment in higher education we find precise estimates of the crra risk aversion parameter between 0 6 and 0 9 heterogeneity in risk attitudes is significant even in sub populations the sons of professionals bear more risk and are more risk averse than the rest of the sample yet they study more because of higher returns and markedly lower expected investment costs simulations show a strong impact of changes in the probability of grade retention on educational achievement

estimating a structural search model the transition from school to work this paper presents a finite horizon search model that is econometrically implemented using all of the restrictions impli ed by the theory following a sample of male high school graduates fr om the youth cohort of the national longitudinal surveys from graduat ion to employment search parameters are estimated reservation wages and offer probabilities are estimated to be quite low simulations a re performed of the impact of changing the parameters on the expected duration of unemployment copyright 1987 by the econometric society

the heterogeneous effect of shocks on agricultural innovations adoption microeconometric evidence from rural ethiopia abstract theoretically the relationship between shocks and agricultural innovation adoption could be ambiguous while shocks could lower the competence and capacity of households to adopt new agricultural innovations households can also take up agricultural innovations as a coping mechanism against the different shocks they face using a nationally representative household data from ethiopia of the living standards measurement study integrated surveys on agriculture lsms isa of the world bank this paper analyzes the effect of idiosyncratic and covariate shocks on adoption of different agricultural innovations assuming interdependence among the innovations we find shocks to have heterogeneous effects on the adoption of agricultural innovations specifically production and health shocks have negative effects on the adoption of high cost innovations such as improved seeds chemical fertilizer and irrigation however production shocks are positively associated with low cost innovations such as organic fertilizer to enhance farmers adoption of agricultural innovations especially high cost innovations there is a greater need towards the design of policies and interventions that would reduce household s exposure to production and health shocks

up or out rules in the market for lawyers we examine how up or out rules operate as a screening device in the market for lawyers using data on large new york law firms we show that firm growth is a slow and uncertain process because performance as an associate is not an especially informative signal about whether a lawyer will make a good partner and because the costs of mistaken promotion are relatively high a newly hired associate is unlikely to be a suitable partner and the screening process is relatively imprecise firm growth therefore contributes between 5 7 of the present value of profits of a law firm

how biofuel policies backfire misguided goals inefficient mechanisms and political ecological blind spots abstract the development of an economically viable biofuel industry rests on strong state subsidies for production and processing creation of markets through government procurement fuel blending mandates price controls as well as foreign trade tariffs and quotas and multiple interventions in agricultural ecological and other regulations we use an approach grounded in agrarian political economy to critically analyze the literature on how biofuel policies interact with broader production trade and agro ecological processes we focus on policies involving the most prominent crops in the places where biofuel production has advanced the most i e usa brazil and the eu but also extend analysis to their relations with broader transformations in production commercial and even governance practices around the world we investigate the political and economic interests driving biofuel policies and how these set the terms in which state interventions and policies are conceived and implemented we find that these are not developed and implemented according to environmental or inclusive pro poor development purposes but according to state interests in energy security and its intersection with a tense alliance between corporate sectors rendering many policy mechanisms ineffective or even outright counterproductive to effectively facilitate more socially and environmentally sustainable energy production and agricultural practices

biofuels adoption in nigeria attaining a balance in the food fuel feed and fibre objectives abstract the drive towards economic development in nigeria brings about the pursuit of many competing objectives whose attainments depend on limited resources biofuels adoption has been set as an important path among other options for pursuing economic growth and development for the country the federal government of nigeria fgn is currently promoting the production processing and utilization of biofuels in the transport and energy sectors the article examines biofuels adoption in nigeria vis a vis the attainment of a balance in the food fuel feed and fibre objectives crops already profiled as preferred sources of feedstock for the primary biofuels production are also crucial for food feed and fibre the resources needed for producing these crops are limited hence the need for a balance this paper derived data from secondary sources including the food and agriculture organization fao the paper explores some aspects of biofuels sustainability and present recommendations for attaining a balance in the multiple objectives for attaining socioeconomic development

dynamic spillovers of oil price shocks and economic policy uncertainty this study examines the dynamic relationship between changes in oil prices and the economic policy uncertainty index for a sample of both net oil exporting and net oil importing countries over the period 1997 01 2013 06 to achieve that an extension of the diebold and yilmaz 2009 2012 dynamic spillover index based on structural decomposition is employed the results reveal that economic policy uncertainty oil price shocks responds negatively to aggregate demand oil price shocks economic policy uncertainty shocks furthermore during the great recession of 2007 2009 total spillovers increase considerably reaching unprecedented heights moreover in net terms economic policy uncertainty becomes the dominant transmitter of shocks between 1997 and 2009 while in the post 2009 period there is a significant role for supply side and oil specific demand shocks as net transmitters of spillover effects these results are important for policy makers as well as investors interested in the oil market

reply to commentary on the special issue scaling up biofuels a critical look at expectations performance and governance abstract the special issue scaling up bioenergy identifies major policy expectations attached to biofuels production worldwide and it provides systematic reviews of actual biofuel performance and governance in these areas papers address the extent to which policy expectations related to climate change mitigation energy security rural livelihoods and risk mitigation have been achieved and the effectiveness of public and private governance in advancing sector sustainability building on these findings the synthesis paper asks what next for countries wishing to advance national biofuel programmes as one option for the necessary divestment from fossil fuels among other sine qua nons the special issue highlights the urgent need to downscale global energy demand and to stop treating biofuels as an isolated sector goldemberg et al 2018 query several aspects of our approach from research design data collection to our recommendation to apply the precautionary principle in research as well as policy making unfortunately goldemberg et al 2018 incorrectly portray our main argument moreover they claim bias in our approach and mistakes in our empirical evidence however without bringing forward an evenhanded critique of research philosophy methodology or referencing different empirical literature we fully stand behind our research philosophy and findings presented

us biofuels subsidies and co2 emissions an empirical test for a weak and a strong green paradox abstract using energy data over the period 1981 2011 we find that us biofuels subsidies and production have provided a perverse incentive for us fossil fuel producers to increase their rate of extraction that has generated a weak green paradox further in the short run if the reduction in the co 2 emissions from a one to one substitution between biofuels and fossil fuels is less than 26 percent or less than 57 percent if long run effect is taken into account then us biofuels production is likely to have resulted in a strong green paradox these results indicate that subsidies for first generation biofuels which yield a low level of per unit co 2 emission reduction compared to fossil fuels might have contributed to additional net co 2 emissions over the study period

sustainability of biofuels in latin america risks and opportunities several latin american countries are setting up biofuel programmes to establish alternative markets for agricultural commodities this is mainly triggered by the current success of brazilian bioethanol production for the domestic market and for export furthermore the global biofuel market is expected to increase due to ambitious biofuel programmes in the eu and in the usa colombia venezuela costa rica and guatemala are focusing on bioethanol production from sugarcane whereas biofuel production in argentina is based on soy biodiesel recent developments of the biofuel sector take place extremely rapid especially in argentina which became one of the five largest biodiesel producers in the world in 2008 till date no specific biofuel sustainability certification systems have been implemented in latin american as well as on global level this fact and the predominant use of food crops for biofuel production raise concerns about the sustainability of biofuel production related to environmental and social aspects this paper provides an overview of the hotspots of conflicts in biofuel production in latin america it investigates presently available sustainability tools and initiatives to ensure sustainable biofuel production in latin america finally it provides an outlook on how to integrate sustainability in the latin american biofuel sector

managing environmental risk in presence of climate change the role of adaptation in the nile basin of ethiopia this study investigates the impact of climate change adaptation on farm households downside risk exposure in the nile basin of ethiopia the analysis relies on a moment based specification of the stochastic production function we use an empirical strategy that accounts for the heterogeneity in the decision on whether to adapt or not and for unobservable characteristics of farmers and their farm we find that past adaptation to climate change i reduces current downside risk exposure and so the risk of crop failure ii would have been more beneficial to the non adapters if they adapted in terms of reduction in downside risk exposure and iii is a successful risk management strategy that makes the adapters more resilient to climatic conditions

european union leadership in biofuels regulation europe as a normative power the rapid emergence of the european union eu as a leader in global environmental politics has led many scholars to argue in favour of the eu being a normative power in international relations this paper critically examines the eu s biofuels policy and evaluates whether its attempts to lead by example and shape international practice in this field could support such arguments europe s biofuel policies are evaluated through a sustainable development lens so as to determine the extent to which it has embraced a holistic approach to sustainability while not dismissing that the identity of the eu is indeed an explanatory factor and that normative intentions may well be regarded as a motivating force this study argues that an interest based perspective on international environmental regulation offers a supplementary view of how an actor s preferences for an international regime are shaped by erecting barriers aimed at shielding its own inefficient domestic biofuels production the eu is in essence placing trade competitiveness and economic growth above environmental protection thus permitting sustainability concerns to be addressed only in part

do no harm risk perceptions in national bioenergy policies and actual mitigation performance this paper investigates how risks are anticipated in national bioenergy policies and in which way related expectations that harms can be prevented or mitigated have actually been met the paper draws on the national biofuel policies of ten countries and the eu selected to represent a diverse sample of regions producers and consumers and pioneers and latecomers it proceeds in two steps firstly it identifies three risk categories most frequently mentioned across the investigated national policies secondly it conducts a systematic review of available empirical research about biofuels effects in these risk categories findings are discussed regarding the empirical conditions under which related expectations to do no harm have materialized or failed and concerning the challenges of risks perception and management in actual policies we observe issues of crop selection and inadequate sectoral governance of biofuels but also challenges of large scale modes of intensive production effective risk mitigation was often the result of risk adverse choices by contract farmers engaged in biofuels production national policy documents have insufficiently conceptualized do no harm concepts and strategies in place to address these performance issues while remaining silent on the particular risk governance and accountability framework that keeps track of actual developments commitments and responsibilities

sine qua nons of sustainable biofuels distilling implications of under performance for national biofuel programs biofuels have been promoted worldwide under the assumption that they can support several strategic policy goals while mitigating associated risks drawing on published evidence on performance contributing papers to this special section question assumptions commonly attributed to biofuels their carbon neutrality their positive effect on rural livelihoods and policymakers ability to effectively govern for sustainability this paper takes these findings as its starting point and asks what next for countries wishing to advance biofuels as one option for the necessary divestment from fossil fuels deriving recommendations for national biofuel programs from past performance is no easy task context complexity power dynamics and scaling pose significant challenges to achieving policy aims we are nevertheless able to distill a set of sine qua nons indispensables for sustainable biofuel governance from the evidence and change management literatures they are put forward not as recipes for success but minimum conditions and best bet approaches requiring testing deliberation and refinement perhaps the most fundamental sine qua non is to pursue options that downscale global demand as current levels of global energy consumption if only in the transport sector cannot be met by biomass derived agrofuels in a way that meets social and environmental sustainability goals