exchange rate expectations since the financial crisis performance evaluation and the role of monetary policy and safe haven abstract we analyze and evaluate novel data on exchange rate expectations after the collapse of lehman brothers for more than 60 economies over different horizons at a first stage we establish a potential discrepancy between statistical and economic measures market expectations are superior compared to trend and carry trade strategies based on economic evaluation criteria despite a weak statistical performance we then turn to determinants of both expectations and resulting forecast errors we find that monetary policy effects on expectations are time varying and identify substantial international spillovers over the recent period of unconventional monetary policy our results also indicate that markets have been surprised by monetary policy effects on the exchange rates and point to an unexpected safe haven status of the us dollar after 2009

overreaction and underreaction in analysts forecasts abstract we examine hypotheses derived from behavioral decision theory regarding conditions that lead to overreaction and conditions that lead to underreaction in analysts earnings forecasts we argue that three heuristics jointly influence earnings forecasts leniency representativeness and anchoring and adjustment we present a model for the concurrent influence of these heuristics on forecast errors and examine three predictions of this model 1 that there is a tendency towards overreaction in forecast changes and underreaction in forecast revisions 2 that there is overreaction to positive forecast modifications and underreaction to negative forecast modifications and 3 that these biases increase with the forecast horizon

what explains global exchange rate movements during the financial crisis abstract a striking and unexpected feature of the financial crisis has been the sharp appreciation of the us dollar against virtually all currencies globally the paper finds that negative us specific macroeconomic shocks during the crisis have triggered a significant strengthening of the us dollar rather than a weakening macroeconomic fundamentals and financial exposure of individual countries are found to have played a key role in the transmission process of us shocks in particular countries with low fx reserves weak current account positions and high direct financial exposure vis a vis the united states have experienced substantially larger currency depreciations during the crisis overall and to us shocks in particular

testing bayesian updating with the associated press top 25 most studies of bayesian updating use experimental data this article uses a non experimental data source the voter ballots of the associated press college football poll a weekly subjective ranking of the top 25 teams to test bayes rule as a descriptive model i find that voters sometimes underreact to new information sometimes overreact and at other times their behavior is consistent with estimated bayesian updating a unifying explanation for the disparate results is that voters are more responsive to information that is more salient i e noticeable in particular voters respond in a more bayesian way to losses and wins over ranked teams as compared to wins over unranked teams and voters seem unaware of subtle variation in the precision of priors jel d80 d83 d84

a time based process model of international entrepreneurial opportunity evaluation this article investigates two important research gaps in international business ib how entrepreneurs evaluate international entrepreneurial opportunities ieos and the role of time in the evaluation process drawing on the literature on decision making models and the philosophical foundation of opportunity this study employs gioia s methodology and content analysis to examine how the founders of 15 early internationalizing firms evaluated ieos in the early and late stage of internationalization the findings reveal that the interaction of time and three general rules of ieo evaluation that i coin simple revised and complex influenced the entrepreneurs decisions the findings show that the founders transitioned from simple to revised and to complex rules in the ieo evaluation process and that various contingent factors such as time pressure resource availability and type of stakeholders drove these transitions the three general rules correspond to what i label as opportunity actualization revision and development maximization processes respectively i propose a time based process model that reconciles extant internationalization models i e process network economics and entrepreneurship different explanations regarding why and how firms internationalize

the international penetration of ibusiness firms network effects liabilities of outsidership and country clout the burgeoning of ibusiness firms in the modern digital economy challenges the received internationalization theory given that ibusinesses such as social networking sites create value by providing a digital platform for users to interact with one another we employ a user network perspective and externalization logic suggesting that ibusinesses internationalization process depends critically on users collective interactions instead of being solely driven by firms market commitments as noted by the uppsala model however ibusinesses may suffer from liabilities of outsidership due to the boundedness of international network effects drawing on social network theory we demonstrate that such liabilities can be mitigated by first diffusing the ibusiness platform in countries with higher clout our analysis using a unique dataset of mobile ibusiness platforms finds empirical support for the hypotheses we discuss theoretical implications for the network approach of the uppsala model in the digital era

asset stock accumulation and sustainability of competitive advantage given incomplete factor markets appropriate time paths of flow variables must be chosen to build required stocks of assets that is critical resources are accumulated rather than acquired in strategic factor markets barney barney j 1986 strategic factor markets expectations luck and business strategy management sci october 1231 1241 sustainability of a firm s asset position hinges on how easily assets can be substituted or imitated imitability is linked to the characteristics of the asset accumulation process time compression diseconomies asset mass efficiencies inter connectedness asset erosion and causal ambiguity

internationalisation conceptualising an entrepreneurial process of behaviour in time this paper presents a three stage process of conceptual development in response to the call for a unifying direction for research in the emergent field of international entrepreneurship drawing on classic approaches to internationalisation and importing insight from entrepreneurship as a separate and distinct field of study the paper develops three potential models of internationalisation as a time based process of entrepreneurial behaviour the models evolve from the simple through general to precise levels of conceptualisation research implications are discussed

cultural industries in international business research progress and prospect cultural industries systems of organizations that produce and distribute cultural goods with substantive symbolic aesthetic or artistic value represent an important exciting and complex context that receives growing scholarly attention as the first review of management research on cultural industries this paper aims to provide a systematic synthesis of current research summarizing distinctive characteristics of cultural industries and highlighting research gaps we also illustrate how the unique nature dynamics and evolution of cultural industries provide opportunities to broaden international business theories in four research themes i e internationalization strategy cross border innovation social inclusion in the global economy and emerging market research

the internationalization of entrepreneurship our article that has been awarded the 2004 journal of international business studies decade award toward a theory of international new ventures represents an integration of international business entrepreneurship and strategic management scholarship this retrospective article explains the intellectual and personal origins of the work in addition it highlights the definitions of international new ventures and international entrepreneurship finally in response to recent concerns about the importance of international business scholarship the research discussed here stands as an example of the successful exportation of international business scholarship into adjacent disciplines

us shocks and global exchange rate configurations many academics and observers emphasize that a sharp us dollar depreciation is inevitable for returning the burgeoning us current account deficit to more sustainable levels how may such a us dollar adjustment occur and what may it imply for global exchange rate configurations the paper focuses on the role of us specific economic shocks in the adjustment process and finds that such us shocks have historically exerted a remarkably heterogeneous effect across currencies it shows that this heterogeneity is not only due to policy choices of inflexible exchange rate regimes or to monetary policy but to an important extent is explained by market forces in particular the degree of financial integration foremost in portfolio investment though not by trade this helps explain why it has been in particular the euro and its predecessor currencies as well as other european currencies that have contributed the bulk to the adjustment of the us dollar effective exchange rate over the past 25 years while other flexible currencies have been much less responsive to us shocks the results suggest that currency flexibility is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for achieving a more balanced contribution across currencies to an adjustment of global exchange rate configurations exchange rates are responsive to foreign shocks only to the extent that market mechanisms are in place that make this transmission work which requires in particular that countries have well developed financial markets and are financially integrated these findings have implications for an unwinding of global imbalances and for monetary policy choices and financial market policies in emerging market economies marcel fratzscher

financial markets forecasts revisited are they rational stubborn or jumpy this paper evaluates professional forecasters behavior using a panel data of individual forecasts we find that i professional forecasts are behavioral and ii there exists a stock bond dissonance the forecasting behavior seems to be stubborn in the stock market but jumpy in the bond market even in the same country forecasting behavior is quite different by market

international entrepreneurship research versus international business research a false dichotomy international entrepreneurship ie research draws from work in both international business ib and general entrepreneurship it examines inter alia entrepreneurial behaviour when crossing borders first stream and makes international comparisons of entrepreneurship as found in different countries and regions second stream see wright and ricks 1994 1 two influential ie articles have been bestowed with the jibs decade award namely oviatt and mcdougall 1994 and knight and cavusgil 2004 both articles suggested the need for new theory to explain the empirical phenomenon of early internationalization these papers developed the concepts of international new venture inv and born global bg respectively and stimulated a lively debate on early internationalizing companies oviatt and mcdougall defined an inv as a business organization that from inception seeks to derive significant

loss function assumptions in rational expectations tests on financial analysts earnings forecasts abstract prior research concludes that financial analysts do not process public information efficiently in generating their earnings forecasts the ordinary least squares ols regression based tests used in prior studies assume implicitly that analysts face a quadratic loss function in contrast we argue that analysts likely face a linear loss function and hence try to minimize their absolute forecast errors we conduct and compare rational expectations tests using these two alternative loss functions we reproduce most prior findings of forecast inefficiency with ols regressions but find virtually no evidence of forecast inefficiency with least absolute deviation regressions where we explicitly assume a linear loss function

entrepreneurial proclivity capability upgrading and performance advantage of newness among international new ventures in spite of a notable interest surrounding the learning advantages of newness lan centered on the emergent international entrepreneurship literature we have only limited understanding of how young international new ventures invs acquire learning advantages and avoid the liabilities of newness and foreignness in order to achieve lan related performance from early internationalization in this article two related but conceptually distinct capability upgrading constructs knowledge capability upgrading and network capability upgrading are identified to serve as mediating mechanisms that link entrepreneurial proclivity and lan related performance our findings from a sample of 436 young invs from china provide supporting evidence for the mediating effect of capability upgrading particularly among relatively larger new ventures and those operating with cost price advantages in the international marketplace this study fills a gap in the under researched area of literature surrounding invs from emerging economies and demonstrates how young international venturing firms can leverage the entrepreneurial dynamics of learning to achieve growth opportunities from early internationalization

will there be a dollar crisis almost everyone believes that the us current account deficit must eventually end and that this end will involve dollar depreciation however many believe that this depreciation will take place gradually this paper shows that any process of gradual dollar decline fast enough to prevent the accumulation of implausible levels of us external debt would impose capital losses on investors much larger than they currently expect as a result there will at some point have to be a wile e coyote moment a point at which expectations are revised and the dollar drops sharply it is much less clear however whether this crisis will produce macroeconomic problems paul krugman

exchange rates and fundamentals new evidence from real time data abstract this paper analyses the link between economic fundamentals and exchange rates by investigating the importance of real time data we find that economic news in the united states germany and the euro area have been a driving force behind daily us dollar euro dem exchange rate developments in the period 1993 2003 the larger importance of us macroeconomic news is at least partly explained by their earlier release time compared to corresponding german and euro area news the exchange rate is also shown to respond more strongly to news in periods of large market uncertainty and when negative or large shocks occur overall the model based on real time data explains about 75 of the monthly directional changes of the us dollar euro exchange rate although it does not explain well the magnitude of the exchange rate changes

internationalization and performance degree duration and scale of operations we assess the theoretical underpinnings and associated empirical findings of the three stage sigmoid curve relationship between degree of internationalization doi and performance by re examining the results reported in one of the prominent studies in the literature we further conduct our own analyses of 23 474 observations of 2 620 us manufacturing firms over the period 1976 2008 and account for self selection of firms into different degrees of internationalization by using a generalized propensity score estimator both sets of results show that the relationship between doi and performance conforms to a mostly negative sigmoid curve and does not support the three stage theorization further examination reveals that two major conceptual and empirical shortcomings underlie the disparity between the theoretical predictions of the three stage model and these empirical findings first whereas theory relies overwhelmingly on enhanced scale of operations as a causal mechanism through which internationalization contributes to performance empirical studies preclude proper identification of scale related benefits second theory and empirics tend to confuse temporary difficulties experienced upon entry into international markets with examining the benefits realizable at different levels of doi regardless of the firm s short term difficulties in realizing those benefits our empirical results show that correcting for each of these shortcomings contributes to diminishing the theory empirics gap

global platforms and ecosystems implications for international business theories the emergence of digital platforms and ecosystems dpe as a venue for value creation and capture for multinational enterprises holds considerable implications for the theory and practice of international business in this paper we articulate these implications by considering the dual perspectives of cross border platforms and ecosystems as a venue for multifaceted innovation and as multisided marketplace and focusing on three overarching themes at the intersection of dpes and international business that is dpes as affording new ways of internationalization as facilitating new ways of building knowledge and relationships and as enabling new ways of creating and delivering value to global customers we explain specific dpe related concepts and constructs that underlie these themes and discuss how they could be incorporated into existing ib theories in ways that would enhance their richness and continued relevance as well as their ability to better predict a multitude of emerging ib phenomena

the international entrepreneurial dynamics of accelerated internationalisation the initial stages of internationalisation prior to firms having established their definitive sources of advantage remain the relatively unexplored area of the international business ib literature at these early stages where firms are seeking to establish themselves and new multinational firms are appearing to exploit new opportunities created by globalisation the entrepreneurial aspects of internationalisation come to the fore in this paper we aim to delineate an emerging field of ib scholarship we use the appearance of international new ventures and the phenomenon of accelerated internationalisation that they feature to identify a set of issues that has slipped through the net of some of the existing ib frameworks we propose that the salient features of accelerated and early internationalisation by the newly internationalising firm are best captured in a framework that is found at the intersection of entrepreneurial and internationalisation perspectives which we propose be known as international entrepreneurial dynamics we discuss such a framework in terms of entry points and pathways mapped by firms as they probe the ib arena and the key factors that impinge on behaviour and strategic choices in line with recent developments in the entrepreneurship literature these are grouped into three milestones of entrepreneurial processes that extend across national boundaries 1 the discovery of new opportunities 2 the deployment of resources in the exploitation of these opportunities and 3 the engagement with competitors implications for mne and internationalisation theory are discussed

beyond categorization new directions for theory development about entrepreneurial internationalization categorizations emphasizing the earliness of internationalization have long been a cornerstone of international entrepreneurship research here we contend that the prominence of categories has not been commensurate with theory development associated with them we draw on categorization theory to explain why earliness based categories are persistent and argue that a greater focus on notions related to opportunity can open new avenues of research about the entrepreneurial internationalization of business we propose and discuss three directions for opportunity based research on entrepreneurial internationalization involving context dynamics and variety

international new ventures revisiting the influences behind the born global firm there is a small but theoretically important literature on born globals or international new venture firms that positions itself in contrast to the more established sequential international entry literature in this paper we examine the pattern of entry into international markets for a set of international new ventures and show that they need not be a distinct breed of firms as previous research has portrayed absent a specific technological advantage the decision for a new venture to internationalize at inception is influenced by the size of its home market and by its production capacity as well as by cultural and economic forces that also influence other more traditional firms that stage their entry into international markets most importantly we demonstrate that the decision to internationalize or not should be considered jointly with the capacity allocation decision to specific international markets as analysing these separately may lead to biased results

internationalization and the performance of born global smes the mediating role of social networks this paper offers a social network explanation for the purported relationship between internationalization and firm performance in the context of born global small and medium enterprises smes we argue that home based social networks play a mediating role in the relationship between inward and outward internationalization and firm performance the mediating mechanism is attributed to three information benefits of social networks 1 knowledge of foreign market opportunities 2 advice and experiential learning and 3 referral trust and solidarity using survey data from smes in the largest emerging economy of china we found some support for this mediating role of social networks in the form of guanxi the results imply that international business managers should consider social networks as an efficient means of helping internationally oriented smes to go international more rapidly and profitably

motives and competitive assets for internationalization a comparison between emerging and developed economy international construction contracting firms this study aims to evaluate the differences in the internationalization of emerging and developed economies firms using an integrated theoretical approach this paper examines the motives and comp

born global or born regional evidence from an exploratory study in the costa rican software industry this paper provides empirical evidence about born global firms in the software industry of a small developing country with an open economy costa rica the paper is based on data collected through interviews with ceos or founders of 40 costa rican software companies findings show that there are few born global firms among costa rican software providers we find that most companies followed a gradual approach to internationalization and they did not export immediately upon birth a careful analysis of firms that exported soon after they were born reveals that most firms are actually born regional

the relationship between oil prices and exchange rates revisiting theory and evidence abstract this paper reviews existing theoretical and empirical research on the relationship between oil prices and exchange rates we start with theoretical transmission channels which point to bi directional causality empirical research is classified and shows that the evidence varies substantially depending on sample country choice and empirical method yet there are some common patterns i strong links between exchange rates and oil prices are frequently observed over the long run and ii either exchange rates or oil prices are a potentially useful predictor of the other variable in the short run but the effects are strongly time varying we also identify some important avenues for future research

international business competence and the contemporary firm the trend of increasing internationalization of small and medium enterprises smes is noteworthy because such firms typically have far fewer financial and tangible resources than large multinational enterprises as a result international business is often more challenging for smaller firms in this study we investigate the widespread internationalization of smes and specific factors that support their superior performance abroad we uncover a collection of intangible capabilities that are especially salient to these firms and their growing international involvement we identify international business competence ibc as an intangible overarching firm resource that engenders superior international performance in the international sme through case studies and a comprehensive literature review we identify four dimensions of ibc we devise and assess a model that links ibc to sme international performance results suggest that international orientation international marketing skills international innovativeness and international market orientation are all significant dimensions of ibc and that ibc is instrumental in sme international performance we discuss resultant findings and offer managerial implications

chinese multinationals fast internationalization financial performance advantage in one region disadvantage in another our study reveals the financial performance implications of the speed at which chinese multinational enterprises cmnes expand into intra regional versus inter regional host countries in doing so we propose a framework that integrates internationalization speed and home regionalization literatures using data from 767 publicly listed cmnes from the years 2002 to 2014 we discover that the faster the intra regional internationalization the better the firm s financial performance whereas faster inter regional internationalization demonstrates a poorer financial performance we also find that fast mover cmnes technological and marketing resources are valuable in intra regional host countries but vulnerable in inter regional host countries we discuss the implications of these findings for studies of the uppsala internationalization process model and regional mnes

the determinants of firms global diversification decisions why do some firms choose to be born global and become early internationalizing firms eifs while others choose to be born again global and develop into late internationalizing firms lifs wh

stability vs flexibility the effect of regulatory institutions on opportunity type how entrepreneurial opportunities are formed and exploited depends upon the institutional environment in which they are embedded the varying amounts of risk and uncertainty across and within heterogeneous institutional environments have important implications for the types of opportunity developed while the international business and entrepreneurship literatures consider the effect of environmental risk and uncertainty on firms risk and uncertainty are often treated as interchangeable or synonymous and rarely are both considered to be present together to address this we develop a new theoretical model based on institutional economics describing how institutional arrangements promoting stability thus supporting an entrepreneur s ability to assess risk will lead to more imitative opportunities while institutions promoting flexibility thus supporting an entrepreneur s ability to respond to uncertainty by iterating will foster more innovative opportunities we test this framework using cross national data across 40 countries from the gem survey finding that institutional arrangements that promote stability do lead to more imitation while institutions that promote flexibility foster more innovation by treating risk and uncertainty as distinct constructs our study makes theoretical contributions to research on institutional environments and opportunity types with implications for future research on subsidiary initiatives the evolution of mnes and born global firms

a resource based theory of the firm knowledge versus opportunism this paper develops a resource based knowledge based theory of the firm its thesis is that the organizational mode through which individuals cooperate affects the knowledge they apply to business activity we focus on the polar cases of organization within a firm as compared to market contracting there will be a difference in the knowledge that is brought to bear and hence in joint productivity under the two options thus as compared to opportunism based transaction cost theory we advance a separate yet complementary answer to the question why do firms exist our aim is to develop an empirically relevant and complementary theory of why firms are formed a theory based on irreducible knowledge differences between individuals rather than the threat of purposeful cheating or withholding of information we assume limited cognitive abilities on the part of individuals bounded rationality and assume that opportunistic behavior will not occur the latter allows us to determine whether resource based

the pecking order of cross border investment abstract is there a pecking order of cross border investment in that countries become financially integrated through some types of investment rather than others using a novel database of bilateral capital stocks for all types of investment fdi portfolio equity securities debt securities as well as loans for a broad set of 77 countries we show that such a pecking order indeed exists the paper focuses on two key determinants of this pecking order information frictions and the quality of host country institutions overall we find that in particular fdi and to some extent also loans are substantially more sensitive to information frictions than investment in portfolio equity and debt securities we also show that the share as well as the size of fdi that a country receive are largely insensitive to institutional factors in host countries while portfolio investment is by far the most sensitive to the quality of institutions this provides new evidence in favor of some hypotheses but contradicts others put forward in the literature on trade in financial assets

when do the usda forecasters make mistakes this study analysed forecasts for all us corn soya bean and wheat categories published within the world agricultural supply and demand estimates wasde reports over the 1987 88 through 2009 10 marketing years in an attempt to identify patterns and better understand when the usda forecasters make mistakes two general sources of errors were investigated behavioural and macroeconomic factors the first objective was to examine how these factors affect the size of the forecast error and the second concentrated on the direction of the error due to these effects our findings suggest that the largest increase in the size of usda forecast errors was associated with structural changes in commodity markets that took place in the mid 2000s corn soya bean and wheat forecast errors also grew during the periods of economic growth and with changes in exchange rates while inflation and changes in oil price had a much smaller impact with respect to behavioural sources we identified patterns consistent with leni

becoming a multinational enterprise using industry recipes to achieve rapid multinationalization we aim to build a greater understanding of how young entrepreneurial firms internationalize fast through foreign subsidiaries to become a multinational enterprise mne despite the prevalence of fast paced international expansion theory development on how it is achieved through high commitment entry modes has been scarce our work substantially addresses this gap by conceptualizing how rapid multinationalization occurs using qualitative case studies we explore eight young entrepreneurial firms operating in the software as a service industry aspiring to achieve early market dominance internationally through rapid multinationalization drawing on the concept of industry recipes we explain how recipe heuristics and recipe augmentation enable rapid multinationalization and showcase the economic and knowledge acquisition logics which underpin these endeavors this study introduces internationalization via industry recipe explains the micro level regulation of internationalization speed and contributes to aligning international entrepreneurship and mne perspectives on internationalization

international entrepreneurship the pursuit of entrepreneurial opportunities across national borders in this editorial for the special issue on international entrepreneurship we inter relate key concepts about the pursuit of opportunities from the entrepreneurship and international business literatures in doing so we consider the assessment of opportunities as an individual level cognitive activity the construction of opportunity as a firm level innovative activity and the shaping of opportunity as an institutional level structuring activity we then extend the discussion to explore the notion of a distributed global ecosystem of opportunities and opportunity seekers which we believe may provide a platform for valuable future research

global imbalances globalization demography and sustainability if you sum up the current account deficits of all nations that are running deficits in the world economy the u s deficit accounts for about 70 percent of the total in any country s national accounts it will hold true as an identity that the current account deficit the excess of payments m to the rest of the world for goods services investment income and unilateral transfers over receipts x from the rest of the world for similar items exactly equals apart from measurement errors which may be substantial the excess of aggregate expenditure e for goods and services over national output y which in turn equals the excess of investment i over savings both public t g and private s in symbols

explaining the formation of international new ventures the limits of theories from international business research abstract international new ventures invs represent a growing and important type of start up an inv is defined as a business organization that from inception seeks to derive significant competitive advantage from the use of resources and the sale of outputs in multiple countries oviatt and mcdougall 1994 their increasing prevalence and important role in international competition indicates a need for greater understanding of these new ventures oviatt and mcdougall 1994 logitech as described in a case study by alahuhta 1990 is a vivid example of an inv its founders were from two different countries and had a global vision for the company from its inception the venture which produces peripheral devices for personal computers established headquarters in both switzerland and the u s manufacturing and r d were split between the u s and switzerland and then quickly spread to taiwan and ireland the venture s first commercial contract was with a japanese company using 24 case studies of invs we found that their formation process is not explained by existing theories from the field of international business specifically neither monopolistic advantage theory product cycle theory stage theory of internationalization oligopolistic reaction theory nor internalization theory can explain the formation process of invs these theories fail because they assume that firms become international long after they have been formed and they therefore highlight large mature firms they also focus too much on the firm level and largely ignore the individual and small group level of analysis i e the entrepreneur and his or her network of business alliances we propose that an explanation for the formation process of invs must answer three questions 1 who are the founders of invs 2 why do these entrepreneurs choose to compete internationally rather than just in their home countries and 3 what form do their international business activities take who are the founders of invs we argue that founders of invs are individuals who see opportunities from establishing ventures that operate across national borders they are alert to the possibilities of combining resources from different national markets because of the competencies networks knowledge and background that they have developed from their earlier activities following the logic of the resource based view of the firm we argue that the possession of these competencies is not matched by other entrepreneurs only the entrepreneur possessing these competencies is able to combine a particular set of resources across national borders and form a given inv why do these entrepreneurs choose to compete internationally rather than just in their home countries the founders of invs recognize they must create international business competencies from the time of venture formation otherwise the venture may become path dependent on the development of domestic competencies and the entrepreneur will find it difficult to change strategic direction when international expansion eventually becomes necessary as the founder of one inv explained the advantage of starting internationally is that you establish an international spirit from the very beginning mamis 1989 38 what form do their international business activities take founders of invs prefer to use hybrid structures i e strategic alliances and networks for their international activities as a way to overcome the usual poverty of resources at the time of start up this study has important implications for the practice of management in financing decisions relating to invs venture capitalists and other venture financiers should look for entrepreneurs who have a global vision international business competence and an established international network when entrepreneurs start invs they should create hybrid structures to preserve scarce resources finally given the path dependence of competence development founders of new ventures should consider whether establishing a domestic new venture with plans to later internationalize will be as successful a strategy as establishing a new venture that is international from inception

the network dynamics of international new ventures this study uses multi site case research to advance a set of propositions regarding the network dynamics of early stage international new ventures the investigative approach builds on arguments that network theory and analysis are fundamental to international entrepreneurship in the spirit of cross disciplinary research perspectives from the entrepreneurship literature are embraced to help inform our understanding of international new venture networks

the born global firm an entrepreneurial and capabilities perspective on early and rapid internationalization our 2004 journal of international business studies article innovation organizational capabilities and the born global firm provided a framework for the phenomenon of early and rapid internationalization among young entrepreneurial firms this work can be characterized as an integration of marketing entrepreneurial and capability based thinking around exporting positioned as the born global exporter the article also reported findings from a national study of start up firms that expanded abroad early in their evolution in the present commentary we reflect on the contributions of the 2004 article review the scholarship on the topic over the past decade and offer suggestions for future inquiry while the incidence of early internationalization by firms was a novel concept two decades ago today such firms are found in abundance in many countries yet many unresolved research questions remain including the crucial topic of what happens to born global firms as they grow and mature over time similarly the issue of why some firms internationalize early others late in their evolution and still others choose to remain local is a fundamental question for international business scholarship

timing is everything curvilinear effects of age at entry on new firm growth and survival and the moderating effect of ipo performance abstract theory suggests that an earlier age at international entry results in improved growth but also decreased survival chances empirical studies tell a different story providing mixed and equivocal results that challenge the tenets of extant theory to begin to bridge the gap between theory and results we develop theoretical explanations for curvilinear inverted u shaped relationships between age at entry and both firm growth and firm survival as well as the moderating impact of resource providing initial public offering ipo on the resource intensive internationalization process our findings support the inverted u shaped relationships and that ipo performance steepens the growth curve and flattens the survival curve taken together our study enhances understanding of the effects of age at entry bridges the ipo and international entrepreneurship literatures and offers avenues for extending the micro foundations of the development of capabilities for new foreign market entry in doing so we advance knowledge about the conditions under which earlier or later internationalization leads some firms to thrive while others fail

organizational innovation in the multinational enterprise internalization theory and business history this article engages in a methodological experiment by using historical evidence to challenge a common misperception about internalization theory the theory has often been criticized for maintaining that it assumes a hierarchically organized mne based on knowledge flowing from the home country this is not an accurate description of how global firms operate in recent decades but this article shows it has never been true historically using longitudinal data on individual firms from the nineteenth century onwards it reveals evidence of how entrepreneurs and firms with multinational activity faced with market imperfections changed the design of their headquarters and their organizational structures

financial instability reserves and central bank swap lines in the panic of 2008 in this paper we connect the events of the last twelve months the panic of 2008 as it has been called to the demand for international reserves in previous work we have shown that international reserve demand can be rationalized by a central bank s desire to backstop the broad money supply to avert the possibility of an internal external double drain a bank run combined with capital flight thus simply looking at trade or short term debt as motivations for reserve holdings is insufficient one must also consider the size of the banking system m2 here we show that a country s reserve holdings just before the current crisis relative to their predicted holdings based on these financial motives can significantly predict exchange rate movements of both emerging and advanced countries in 2008 countries with large war chests did not depreciate and some appreciated meanwhile those who held insufficient reserves based on our metric were likely to depreciate current account balances and short term debt levels are not statistically significant predictors of depreciation once reserve levels are taken into account our model s typically high predicted reserve levels provide important context for the unprecedented u s dollar swap lines recently provided to many countries by the federal reserve this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

testing the rationality of japanese gdp forecasts the sign of forecast revision matters abstract this paper analyzes the rationality of japanese gdp forecasts of individual economists it finds that japanese forecasters are pessimistic optimistic when their forecast revisions frs are positive negative and that they always over react to new information across forecasters the magnitude of average fr is not correlated with the magnitude of average forecast errors fe these results together are consistent with neither the rational expectations hypothesis nor reputation models with rational and strategic forecasters

innovation organizational capabilities and the born global firm we investigate born global firms as early adopters of internationalization that is companies that expand into foreign markets and exhibit international business prowess and superior performance from or near their founding our explication highlights the critical role of innovative culture as well as knowledge and capabilities in this unique breed of international entrepreneurial firm case studies are analyzed to better understand the early internationalization phenomenon and reveal key orientations and strategies that engender international success among these innovative firms case findings are then validated in a survey based study despite the scarce resources typical of young firms our findings reveal that born global firms leverage a distinctive mix of orientations and strategies that allow them to succeed in diverse international markets findings have important implications for the internationalization of contemporary firms

the modern history of exchange rate arrangements a reinterpretation we develop a novel system of reclassifying historical exchange rate regimes one key difference between our study and previous classifications is that we employ monthly data on market determined parallel exchange rates going back to 1946 for 153 countries our approach differs from the imf official classification which we show to be only a little better than random it also differs radically from all previous attempts at historical reclassification our classification points to a rethinking of economic performance under alternative exchange rate regimes indeed the breakup of bretton woods had less impact on exchange rate regimes than is popularly believed