has job stability decreased population data from a small open economy we use a population based employer employee dataset to analyze changes in job stability in norway we first present descriptive analyses of tenure and separation rates followed by regression adjusted measures controlling for changes in demographics and the business cycle we see only weak evidence of changes in the tenure rates in particular for the public sector we find a slight increase in short tenures and a decrease in tenures above eight years however we do not find that this tendency towards less stable jobs leads to an increase in the flow to unemployment or out of the labor force

new evidence on implicit contracts from linked employer employee data we improve the precision of the implicit contract model test proposed by beaudry and dinardo 1991 our dataset allows us to define the exact industry and plant of a particular employment relationship link local labor market characteristics to individual level wages and control for composition effects we find evidence in favor of the spot market model of wage setting in the whole sample but there is significant variation across industries and education levels in particular the spot market matters most for low skill workers while the implicit contract model with one sided limited commitment applies better to high skill workers

experience tenure and wage growth of young black and white men this paper studies the source of differences in wage growth between young black and white workers focusing on terminal high school graduates from the national longitudinal survey of youth we estimate the returns to on the job tenure and general labor market experience using ordinary least squares altonji and shakotko and topel estimators results from all three estimators indicate that returns to general experience for black workers trail those for white workers but that black workers earn equal if not higher returns to tenure than do white workers

how late to pay understanding wage arrears in russia we organize an empirical analysis of russian wage arrears around hypotheses concerning incentives for firms to pay late and for workers to tolerate late payment nationally representative household panel data matched with employer data show that arrears are positively related to firm age size state ownership and declining performance constrained multinomial logit estimates reveal intrafirm variation related to job tenure and small shareholdings in the firm wage arrears unlike wage cuts have a theoretically ambiguous effect on workers quit behavior and we show empirically that the effect varies negatively with the extent of the practice in the local labor market

a system approach to the demand for salmon in the european union this study addresses the demand for salmon in the european union a system of demand equations are specified with an almost ideal demand system aids to analyse the demand structure for fresh frozen and smoked salmon using quarterly data for the period 1984 92 the time series porperties of the data series are explored and the data series are found to be non stationary but cointegrated to avoid the invalild inference and spurious regression problems that may be created by non stationary data series the fully modified least squares fmls estimatior is utilized

the quit propensity of married men this paper hypothesizes that the quit propensity of married men rises with an increase in their wives income assuming that individuals are risk averse and that quitting is risky the wife s income increases the husband s expected value of quitting by reducing the variance of expected family income using the longitudinal data from the michigan panel study of income dynamics psid the wife s income is found to have a large effect on quits the average husband s quit rate increases by about 45 when the wife s income rises from zero to two thirds that of the husband s the wife s income effect nearly offsets the negative effect that marriage typically has on male quit rates

cyclical quality adjustment in the labor market 1 introductionthe u s unemployment rate fell to very low levels during the 1990s even more impressively the unemployment rate for minorities and less educated individuals fell disproportionately convergence of relative unemployment rates in expansions and divergence in recessions has been a feature of the u s economy over the last 30 years there are many possible reasons for this feature for example if the costs of hiring and firing less skilled labor are low one would expect these individuals to have very procyclical employment in this paper i explore an alternative model when there is an excess supply of labor high skilled people take jobs that would normally be occupied by less skilled people in expansions the process reverses with less skilled workers getting access to jobs that they would normally not attain i refer to this process as cyclical quality adjustment reder 1955 p 834 was one of the first to discuss how hiring standards adjust to business cycle conditions quality variations in labor markets arise through upgrading and downgrading of members of the labor force relative to the jobs they are to fill when applicants become scarce employers tend to lower the minimum standards upon which they insist as a condition for hiring a worker to fill a particular job and vice versa when applicants become plentiful since then many papers have developed this idea theoretically and many economic commentators appear to share this view of the labor market for example the economic report of the president states that a strong labor market is particularly important to less advantaged groups in the labor market such as workers with less education younger workers racial and ethnic minorities and immigrants when employers find it hard to fill vacancies they are more willing to hire and train workers whom they might pass over when they have fewer openings and an abundance of applicants council of economic advisors 1999 p 103 likewise the expansion during the 1990s spawned many newspaper articles about the improvement in the types of jobs available to less skilled applicants however there is little systematic empirical work about changes in job assignment in the united states over the business cycle the empirical work in this paper seeks to redress this situation cyclical assignment changes are important for many reasons as mentioned earlier job upgrading is a potential explanation for the greater cyclical variation of employment experienced by less skilled workers it is well known that the unemployment rates of less skilled individuals and minorities are more countercyclical relative to more skilled individuals clark and summers 1981 kydland 1984 keane and prasad 1993 hoynes 1999 the standard explanation for this effect is that low ability workers are more likely to be laid off in downturns because training and hiring costs are lower for these workers no commensurate attention has been paid to the issue of how the decision of who to hire changes over the business cycle however assignment models present a natural explanation for the greater procyclicality of employment of the less skilled both the adjustment cost hypothesis and the upgrading hypothesis imply that less skilled workers will have more procyclical employment empirically they are distinguishable because the upgrading explanation implies that jobs obtained by comparable workers should vary systematically over the cycle the adjustment cost hypothesis relates to the composition of those whose jobs are terminated second these mechanisms suggest a reason why wages are particularly procyclical for job changers recent studies using panel data have indicated that the wages of job starters are much more procyclical than the wages of workers who do not change jobs researchers have suggested various explanations for this result beaudry and dinardo 1991 and macleod and malcomson 1993 present contracting models in which the wages of job starters depend on the state of the labor market when they join the firm

market delineation and demand structure this paper addresses the relationship between the cointegration approach to market delineation and the more traditional approach of analyzing the demand structure among different products in terms of degree of substitutability cointegration tests for market delineation and estimation of a dynamic system of demand equations are undertaken utilizing the same data set the data set consists of three high quality seafood products in the european union the results are encouraging as the results from the two approaches are not only compatible but are also complementary in the sense that they provide more information together than they do separately

why are the wages of job changers so procyclical evidence on wage cyclicality shows job changers have more procyclical wages than job stayers previous work argued this arises because workers gain greater access to jobs in sectors such as manufacturing that offer high wages this article argues that workers who switch jobs in booms enter temporary jobs with unemployment risk and are merely compensated for subsequent losses i demonstrate that the two explanations can be distinguished using the relationship between unemployment insurance and wage cyclicality among job changers the evidence supports the compensation hypothesis that is that job changers might not experience real gains from higher paying jobs in booms

do wages rise with job seniority a reassessment the authors provide new estimates of the return to job seniority using a dataset similar to that employed in joseph altonji and robert shakotko do wages rise with job seniority review of economic studies 1987 and robert topel specific capital mobility and wages journal of political economy 1991 they consider the strengths and weaknesses of these studies treatment of economy wide trends their dating conventions for tenure and wages their handling of wage observations that might span multiple jobs and their estimation approaches re estimation points to an effect often years of tenure on the log wage equal to 11 which is above the preferred estimate of altonji and shakotko but far below that of topel changes in earnings distributions and in the employment relationship motivate the examination of more recent data perhaps surprisingly the return to tenure has probably increased over time

changes in earnings instability and job loss this paper examines the contribution of job loss or displacement to increasing male earnings instability between 1970 and 1991 earnings instability increased among both displaced and not displaced men so changes associated with job loss cannot fully explain rising instability changes in the incidence and consequences of job loss did however add substantially to growing earnings instability and to the overall variance of earnings there is evidence that displacement substantially raised earnings volatility for several years after job loss that effect combined with increased numbers of recently displaced workers in the 1980s relative to the previous decade contributed to rising overall earnings instability

changes in job instability and insecurity using monthly survey data this article provides evidence on changes in short term job instability and insecurity using the survey of income and program participation monthly measures from this data set are contrasted with annual measures from the survey of income and program participation and the panel study of income dynamics neither data set shows an increase in job turnover during the 1980s and 1990s we also examine indicators of increased insecurity these include the probability that a job ends involuntarily is followed by a spell of nonemployment or that the subsequent job has lower wages these indicators of insecurity also show no upward trend

data watch the panel study of income dynamics by collecting annual economic and demographic information from a large and representative sample of u s households for over a quarter century the panel study of income dynamics has compiled a remarkably useful set of microdata this article describes the psid and how its unique longitudinal and in some cases intergenerational features have been used for studies of intertemporal models of labor supply wages employment and job tenure consumption poverty dynamics extended family behavior and the intergenerational transmission of economic status

changing consequences of job separation in the united states using the panel study of income dynamics the author examines the consequences of job loss between the periods 1976 81 and 1986 91 he finds stability in the overall incidence of job separation but a statistically significant increase in the incidence of involuntary job loss relative to quits for older workers he also finds that the consequences of involuntary job loss worsened the reemployment rate of workers who experienced involuntary job loss dropped from 67 in 1976 81 to 62 in 1986 91 and among those who found new jobs the odds of receiving a large wage cut rose from 9 in 1976 81 to 17 in 1986 91

international fish trade and exchange rates an application to the trade with salmon and fishmeal international fish trade is growing and fish exports represent an important source of foreign currency for many countries for a few countries the exports are also an essential part of the economy we revisit the seminal paper of richardson 1978 that addresses the issue of exchange rate pass through in commodity markets but in a multivariate cointegration framework the multivariate cointegration framework allows us to test common assumptions like exchange rate pass through leading price central markets and exogeneity of exchange rates this approach is particularly suited when studying markets for primary products we provide empirical examples using salmon imports to japan and fish meal exports from peru to germany

where the minimum wage bites hard introduction of minimum wages to a low wage sector between 1993 and april 1999 there was no minimum wage in the united kingdom except in agriculture in this paper we study the effects of the introduction of a national minimum wage nmw in april 1999 on one heavily affected sector the residential care homes industry this sector contains a large number of low paid workers and as such can be viewed as being very vulnerable to minimum wage legislation we look at the impact on both wages and employment our results suggest that the minimum wage raised the wages of a large number of care home workers causing a very big wage compression of the lower end of the wage distribution thereby strongly reducing wage inequality there is some evidence of employment and hours reductions after the minimum wage introduction though the estimated effects are not that sizable given how heavily the wage structure was affected

market structure for farmed salmon farmed salmon represents 20 of the total volume of the world s salmon supply norwegian salmon farmers produce more than 50 of the world s farmed salmon rapid expansion of this industry raises important issues about market model specification we specify and test models with varying degrees of market power including third degree price discrimination using norwegian export data from 1983 to 1988 results indicate that norwegian exporters have limited ability to engage in regional price discrimination although they may have discriminated after the third quarter of 1987 seasonal price discrimination however may have taken place because demand is more inelastic in periods when fresh wild caught salmon are unavailable

the impact of the introduction of the u k minimum wage on the employment probabilities of low wage workers this paper uses longitudinal data from three contrasting data sets matched labor force surveys the british household panel survey and matched new earnings surveys to estimate the impact of the introduction of the u k minimum wage in april 1999 on the probability of subsequent employment among those whose wages would have needed to be raised to comply with the minimum a difference in differences estimator is used based on position in the wage distribution no significant adverse employment effects are found for any of the four demographic groups considered adult and youth men and women or in any of the three data sets used jel j38 j23

horatio alger meets the mobility tables the question of how entrepreneurship relates to income mobility is cogent given the current public debate about the sources of income inequality and mobility in united states society we examine how experience with entrepreneurship has affected an individual s place in the earnings distribution our basic tack is to follow individuals positions in the income distribution over time and to see how their mobility or lack thereof was affected by involvement with entrepreneurship our main finding is that for low income individuals there is some merit to the notion that the self employed moved ahead in the earnings distribution relative to those who remained wage earners on the other hand for those at the upper end of the earnings distribution those who became self employed often advanced less in the earnings distribution than their salaried counterparts

wage growth due to human capital accumulation and job search a comparison between the united states and germany this paper compares the sources of wage growth of young male workers in two countries with very different labor market institutions the united states and germany the author first develops a simple method for decomposing wage growth into components due to general human capital accumulation firm specific human capital accumulation and job search the empirical analysis uses data from administrative records germany and the national longitudinal survey of youth united states for cohorts entering the labor market in the late 1970s and early 1980s although the two countries differed substantially in mobility rates they were similar in the sources of wage growth with general human capital accumulation being the most important single source and job search accounting for an additional 25 or more of total wage growth there is no evidence that returns to firm specific human capital accumulation were higher for german apprentices than for u s high school dropouts or graduates

disentangling supply and demand shifts the impacts on world salmon price to understand price changes one must determine the relative impact of supply and demand shifts on price conditional on predetermined supply and demand elasticities we retrieve yearly shifts in regional supply and demand the relative impact on price from each supply and demand shift is determined through an equilibrium displacement model edm this procedure is applied on a yearly basis for the world salmon market in the period 2002 to 2011 the results indicate a large variation in demand and supply growth both over time and between regions while average annual price impacts from supply or demand shifts from most regions are not statistically significant price impacts from supply or demand shifts for specific periods are detected in all but one region this indicates that the use of smooth trend indicators is likely to be inappropriate for measuring supply and demand shifts and their impacts on price the procedure presented in this article can be a useful instrument for determining the relative im

globalization and the changing logic of collective action globalization transforms collective action in domestic and international politics as the scale of markets widens and as economic organization becomes more complex the institutional scale of political structures can become insufficient for the provision of an appropriate range of public goods a process of this sort occurred prior to the emergence of the modern nation state which itself constituted a paradigmatic response to this predicament today however a complex process of globalization of goods and assets is undermining the effectiveness of state based collective action overlapping playing fields are developing made up of increasingly heterogeneous transnational local and intermediate arenas the residual state retains great cultural force and innovative projects for reinventing government are being tried nevertheless the state s effectiveness as a civil association has eroded significantly and this may lead to a crisis of legitimacy

the economic consequences of labor mobility unlike most previous research on the relative changes in earnings of job stayers and job changers this study examines the variance in earnings changes rather than simply average changes men and women rather than only men and the five year period following job change rather than only the first year or two the author finds great variability in earnings changes both within and across race and gender groups notably men gained more from quits and except in the case of low wage workers lost less from layoffs than women also men suffered a much smaller penalty than women for repeated job changes for all groups the percentage difference between earnings before and after leaving a job generally persisted for several years

returns to seniority in union and nonunion jobs a new look at the evidence in cross sectional data the positive association between seniority and earnings is typically much stronger for nonunion workers than for union workers a finding that seems inconsistent with the generalization that seniority is more important in the union sector than in the nonunion sector the authors of this paper show that standard estimates of the return to seniority are likely to be biased upward due to unmeasured worker heterogeneity job heterogeneity or both and they argue that this bias is likely to be larger in the nonunion sector than in the union sector when they correct for this problem in analyzing data on male blue collar workers for the years 1968 80 they find a larger return to seniority in the union sector than in the nonunion sector

the costs of worker displacement this study identifies part of the social loss attendant upon displacement as the remaining value of the assets specific to the severed employment relationship a bargaining model is used to link wage tenure profiles to the amount of information firms and workers possess about the duration of that relationship if information is good the profile will flatten as displacement approaches using psid data for workers separated between 1977 and 1981 wage tenure profiles are found not to change this suggests that either workers or both firms and workers are surprised by the displacement the present value of that part of the social loss attributable to the worker s share of firm specific capital is around 7 000 1980 dollars

trends in job instability and wages for young adult men data and measurement problems have complicated the debate over trends in job instability in the united states we compare two cohorts of young white men from the national longitudinal surveys nls construct a rigorous measure of job change and confirm earlier findings of a significant increase in job instability we then benchmark the nls against other main data sets in the field and conduct a thorough attrition analysis extending the analysis to wages we find that the wage returns to job changing have both declined and become more unequal for young adults mirroring trends in their long term wage growth

the incidence and wage consequences of home based work in the united states 1980 2000 abstract this study documents the rapid growth in home based wage and salary employment and the sharp decline in the home based wage penalty in the united states between 1980 and 2000 these twin patterns observed for both men and women in most occupation groups suggest that employer costs of providing home based work arrangements have decreased consistent with information technology it advances being an important source of these falling costs i find that occupation gender cells that had larger increases in on the job it use also experienced larger increases in the home based employment share and larger declines in the home based wage penalty

the recursivity of law global norm making and national lawmaking in the globalization of corporate insolvency regimes for the past 15 years an enormous enterprise of global norm making and related national lawmaking has been underway in many areas of global commerce this article shows that leading global institutions such as the world bank imf and united nations are building an international financial architecture with law including corporate bankruptcy law as its foundation building on research on international institutions and three national cases china indonesia korea the authors propose a new framework for legal change in a global context the recursivity of law they argue that the globalization of bankruptcy law has proceeded through three cycles 1 at the national level through recursive cycles of lawmaking 2 at the global level through iterative cycles of norm making and 3 at the nexus of the two recursive cycles are driven by driven by four mechanisms the indeterminacy of law contradictions diagnostic struggles and actor mismatch thus the recursivity of law both revives and expands the soc

a theory of quits and layoffs with efficient turnover this paper answers the efficient turnover literature s long silence regarding the quit layoff distinction treating quits as worker initiated separations and layoffs as firm initiated separations i establish that the existence of layoffs is compatible with optimizing workers and firms forming and dissolving employment matches to exploit all the gains from trade the efficient turnover approach is shown to be consistent with many empirical regularities that distinguish quits from layoffs structural implications of the model are tested on data from the psid

a theory of career mobility this paper analyzes theoretically and empirically the role and significance of occupational mobility in the labor market focusing on individuals careers it provides additional dimensions to the analysis of investment in human capital wage differences across individuals and the relationships among promotions quits and interfirm occupational mobility it is shown that part of the returns to education is in the form of higher probabilities of occupational upgrading within or across firms given an origin occupation schooling increases the likelihood of occupational upgrading furthermore workers who are not promoted despite a high probability of promotion are more likely to quit

job duration over the business cycle evidence from the national longitudinal survey of youth nlsy suggests that the cyclicality of job duration depends on the worker s prior and future employment status for example among matches formed with previously nonemployed workers those that end with the worker returning to nonemployment display procyclical duration in contrast matches that end because the worker switches to another job have countercyclical duration moreover differences in starting wages do not account for these patterns

causality in demand a co integrated demand system for trout in germany this article focuses on causality in demand a methodology where causality is imposed and tested within an empirical co integrated demand model not prespecified is suggested the methodology allows different causality of different products within the same demand system the methodology is applied to fish demand on the german market for farmed trout and substitutes it is found that supply sources i e aquaculture and fishery are not the only determinant of causality storing tightness of management and aggregation level of integrated markets might also be important the methodological implication is that more explicit focus on causality in demand analyses provides improved information the results suggest that frozen trout forms part of a large european whitefish market where prices of fresh trout are formed on a relatively separate market redfish is a substitute on both markets the policy implication is that increased production of trout causes a downward pressure on fresh trout prices but froz

economic development legality and the transplant effect abstract we analyze the determinants of effective legal institutions legality using data from 49 countries we show that the way the law was initially transplanted and received is a more important determinant than the supply of law from a particular legal family countries that have developed legal orders internally adapted the transplanted law and or had a population that was already familiar with basic principles of the transplanted law have more effective legality than countries that received foreign law without any similar predispositions the transplanting process has a strong indirect effect on economic development via its impact on legality while the impact of particular legal families is weaker and not robust to alternative legality measures

effects of income growth and tariffs on the world salmon market the effects of income growth and tariffs on salmon prices production and trade flows are analysed using total elasticities derived from an equilibrium displacement model of the world salmon market results suggest the total income elasticity in world trade for salmon is about one which means imports worldwide will grow at about the same pace as world income however owing in part to policies that restrict supply response not all exporters will share evenly in this growth with uk producers benefiting the most and norwegian producers the least within importing countries imports are more responsive to income growth than is domestic production which means protectionist pressures are apt to increase with affluence us tariffs on imports from norway and chile are counterproductive in that they reduce world imports with little effect on the us price norway s feed quota reduces the efficacy of us tariffs makes imports less responsive to income and increases price volatility hence quota elimination m

promotions and wage growth this article presents evidence that internal mobility defined as a promotion or other position change is an important source of wage growth it accounts for approximately 15 of wage growth over the life cycle for white and black men but less for women the incidence of promotions and other position changes appears tied to the wage level better paid workers are more likely to be promoted the life cycle incidence of internal mobility looks similar to that for conventionally defined job mobility most moves are made early in the career mobility declines both with time in position and with experience

interpreting panel data on job tenure tenure responses in the panel study of income dynamics psid and the national longitudinal surveys are often inconsistent with calendar time these inconsistencies pose special problems in the psid because job changes cannot be identified directly so researchers must infer them from error ridden tenure data we use alternative rules for partitioning psid data into jobs and then estimate several wage and mobility models to assess the sensitivity of parameter estimates to the partitioning method we also assess the importance of replacing raw tenure data with imputed measures that are internally consistent

a dominant firm model of price determination in the us fresh salmon market 1985 88 in this paper a dominant firm pricing model is used to examine price determination in the us imported farmed salmon market for the period 1985 88 in the 1980s us imports of fresh and frozen salmon increased rapidly with norway supplying nearly 80 of farmed salmon the model assumes that norwegian suppliers recognize their dominant position in the market and set the level of supply to the us to achieve a price that will maximize profits the model does well in explaining variations in the price of farmed salmon over the period of study and is used to study recent allegations that norwegian salmon have been dumped in the us market

declining labor turnover and turbulence abstract the rate of job loss has been on a secular decline for the last four decades or longer changes in demographics or industry composition do not account for the trend this paper seeks to identify the possible sources of the decline using a simple search and matching model with two types of workers experienced and inexperienced where the former type faces a risk of skill loss during unemployment the calibrated model suggests that a higher risk of skill loss during unemployment results in a lower job separation rate because workers accept lower wages in exchange for job security various other potential hypotheses are also examined

the dynamics of dual job holding and job mobility this article concerns dual job holding and its link to job mobility we present evidence from u s data on patterns of dual job holding hours changes and job mobility we find that workers move into and out of second jobs frequently that these movements are associated with large changes in work hours and that hours constraints may prompt workers to take second jobs second we review theories of dual job holding and present a stochastic dynamic model of dual job holding and job mobility in which decisions to take second jobs and or change main jobs are made simultaneously

the cyclicality of real wages within employer employee matches using data from the panel study of income dynamics the author examines the cyclicality of wages within employer employee matches for the years 1970 91 recent research on wage cyclicality has suggested that wages are very procyclical tending to rise and fall with economic upturns and downturns even for workers who remain with the same employer the author finds however that the evidence for wage procyclicality within the matches he examines is rather weak except for the small group of workers who were paid by piece rate or commissions despite having acyclical wage rates men who were paid hourly had earnings movements that were very procyclical salaries exhibited little cyclicality but salaried workers who had income sources from bonuses commissions or overtime had procyclical earnings the results suggest that the increasing prevalence of incentive based pay will increase the procyclicality of wages within matches

is job stability in the us falling reconciling trends in the current population survey and panel study of income dynamics this article considers whether two commonly used sources of information on employer tenure the panel study of income dynamics and the current population survey yield systematically different trends in employer tenure little evidence of a discrepancy between the data sets in the 1980s or 1990s is found when comparable samples variable definitions and time frames are used neither data set shows a significant trend in the share of workers with 1 year or less of tenure while both data sets show an increase in the fraction of men with less than 10 years of tenure starting in the late 1980s

employment based health insurance and job mobility is there evidence of job lock the majority of privately insured americans obtain their health insurance through their own or a family member s employment the rationale for employers to provide health insurance is straightforward by pooling the risks of individuals employers can reduce adverse selection and lower administrative expenses in addition they benefit from tax laws allowing businesses to deduct their health insurance costs these advantages of employer provision however must be weighed against the distortions they may generate in individual labor market decisions in particular health insurance may distort job mobility if employees decide to keep jobs they would rather leave for fear of losing coverage for preexisting conditions a possibility that has been termed job lock this paper attempts to quantify the effect of employer provided health insurance on the labor market mobility of individuals the link between employer provided health insurance and

has job stability declined yet new evidence for the 1990 s we update the evidence on changes in job stability through the mid 1990s using recently released current population survey data for 1995 that parallel earlier job tenure supplements in the aggregate job stability declined modestly in the first half of the 1990s moreover the relatively small aggregate changes mask rather sharp declines in stability for workers with more than a few years of tenure nonetheless the data available to this point do not support the conclusion that the downward shift in job stability for more tenured workers and the more modest decline in aggregate job stability reflect long term trends

do wages rise with job seniority many previous studies have found a strong positive effect of job seniority tenure on wages this paper re examines the evidence using a simple instrumental variables scheme to deal with the fact that tenure is likely to be related to unobserved individual and job characteristics that affect the wage we use the variation of tenure over a given job match as the principal instrumental variable for tenure the variation in tenure over the job is uncorrelated by construction with the fixed individual and job match specific components of the error term of the wage equation our main finding is that the partial effect of tenure on wages is small and that general labour market experience and job shopping account for most wage growth over a career the strong cross section relationship between tenure and wages is due primarily to heterogeneity bias prior researchers see mincer and jovanovic 1981 bartel and borjas 1981 borjas 1981 cline 1979 and mellow 1981 and many others have established that job seniority has a strong positive relationship with wage rates in a cross section or a cross section time series of individuals in this paper we re evaluate the evidence concerning the partial effects on wages of job seniority tenure and total labour market experience the extent to which wages rise with tenure is important for several reasons first and foremost the wage tenure profile is a fundamental question about the structure of earnings over careers second the wage tenure profile is a key determinant of the extent to which the earnings power of individuals is tied to specific jobs and it is important for assessment of the losses suffered by displaced workers hamermesh 1984 third evidence that wages rise with job tenure has been used to explain the decline in quits with tenure since the wage growth on the current job lowers the probability that the worker will locate a superior alternative a growing theoretical literature surveyed in parsons 1984 has taken the evidence of a strong wage tenure profile at face value and sought to provide an explanation for the relationship the most prominent explanation is the theory of specific human capital oi 1962 becker 1962 mincer 1974 parsons 1972 kuratani 1973 and hashimoto 1980 in which the growth of wages with tenure holding experience constant is attributed to the worker s share of investments in firm specific skills more recently lazear 1981 has presented a supervision model of wage growth in which firms defer compensation as a means of inducing workers not to shirk freeman 1977 and harris and holmstrom 1982 provide an explanation for wage growth based on an insurance motive salop and salop 1976 nickell 1976 and guasch and weiss 1982 present adverse selection models of wage growth in which firms use a wage tenure profile as a

wage risk and employment risk over the life cycle we specify a structural life cycle model of consumption labour supply and job mobility in an economy with search frictions that allows us to distinguish between different sources of risk and to estimate their effects the sources of risk are shocks to productivity job destruction the process of job arrival when employed and unemployed and match level heterogeneity our model allows for four main social insurance programmes in contrast to simpler models that attribute all income fluctuations to shocks our framework allows us to disentangle the effects of the shocks from the responses to these shocks estimates of productivity risk once we control for employment risk and for individual labour supply choices are substantially lower than estimates that attribute all wage variation to productivity risk increases in productivity risk impose a considerable welfare loss on individuals and induce substantial precautionary saving increases in employment risk have large effects on output and primarily through this channel affect welfare the welfare value of government programs such as food stamps which partially insure productivity risk is greater than the value of unemployment insurance which provides partial insurance against employment risk and no insurance against persistent shocks

task assignment over the business cycle in this article i evaluate the hypothesis that firms respond to negative demand shocks by assigning workers to tasks that require less skill than the tasks they normally carry out using changes in employment in state industry cells as a measure of demand conditions facing individual firms i provide evidence in favor of the hypothesis furthermore the skill requirements of the tasks carried out by workers are procyclical the results are consistent with a specific capital model where employers move workers between tasks so that layoffs are concentrated on workers with low levels of firm specific human capital

overeducation in the labor market this article examines the reasons for the observed discrepancy between workers actual and required levels of schooling and the resulting differences in returns to schooling overeducated workers are found to be younger and to have lower amounts of on the job training than workers with the required level of schooling they also have higher rates of firm and occupational mobility characterized by movement of higher level occupations the findings suggest that overeducation can be explained by the trade off between schooling and other components of human capital and by the mobility patterns of overeducated workers

performance pay and wage inequality an increasing fraction of jobs in the u s labor market explicitly pay workers for their performance using bonus pay commissions or piece rate contracts using data from the panel study of income dynamics we show that compensation in performance pay jobs is more closely tied to both observed and unobserved productive characteristics of workers than compensation in non performance pay jobs we also find that the return to these productive characteristics increased faster over time in performance pay than in non performance pay jobs we show that this finding is consistent with the view that underlying changes in returns to skill due for instance to technological change induce more firms to offer performance pay contracts and result in more wage inequality among workers who are paid for performance thus performance pay provides a channel through which underlying changes in returns to skill get translated into higher wage inequality we conclude that this channel accounts for 21 of the growth in the variance of male wages between the late 1970s and the early 1990s and for most of the increase in wage inequality above the eightieth percentile over the same period

earnings dynamics and inequality among canadian men 1976 1992 evidence from longitudinal income tax records using an extraordinary database drawn from longitudinal income tax records we decompose canada s growth in earnings inequality into its persistent and transitory components we find that the growth in earnings inequality reflects both an increase in long run inequality and an increase in earnings instability the canadian data strongly reject several restrictions commonly imposed in the u s literature and they also suggest that imposing these evidently false restrictions may lead to distorted inferences about earnings dynamics and inequality trends

occupational specificity of human capital we find that returns to occupational tenure are substantial everything else being constant 5 years of occupational tenure are associated with an increase in wages of 12 20 moreover when occupational experience is taken into account tenure with an industry or employer has relatively little importance in accounting for the wage one receives this finding is consistent with human capital being occupation specific

external recruitment and intrafirm mobility i introduction competition for promotion has a very strong effect on employees work incentive in the stereotypic internal labor market described in doeringer and piore 1985 there are only a limited number of ports of entry into a hierarchical firm or organization so that existing employees are insulated to a large extent from external competition in their climb up the corporate ladder however lazear 1992 and baker et al 1994a 1994b find extensive external recruitments at almost all grade levels in their studies of different u s corporations if the boundary between internal and external labor markets is not impervious then the choice between external recruitment and internal promotion in filling openings becomes an important personnel decision with interesting implications on incentives opening up the competition to external applicants discourages collusion among candidates as well as offers a quick channel for absorbing external talents however it also reduces the probability of promotion for existing workers and thus their incentive to exert with adverse effect on the firm s profit in chan 1996 i suggest that work incentive for the internal promotion candidates can be maintained if external competitors are handicapped in the contest such favoritism for existing employees implies that senior positions tend to be filled internally more often than not and that a worker is recruited from the outside only if he or she demonstrates a significant margin of superiority over the internal candidates this is consistent with the observations that external recruits account for only about 15 to 20 of all appointments to top management positions see denis and denis 1995 warner et al 1988 and that roughly the same percentage of chief executive officers ceos of large u s firms are outsiders see agrawal et al 2002 chan 1996 parrino 1997 the handicapping hypothesis of promotion suggests a dilemma in personnel decisions although handicapping external applicants provides incentive for existing employees it also increases the chance of inferior internal contestants being promoted to senior positions where sorting of workers by ability into different particularly senior positions is important efficiency within the organization is compromised this tension between sorting and maintaining work incentive is explored in tsoulouhas et al 2001 unfortunately the gain in realism with the incorporation of sorting is offset by ambiguity in most of the results the ability of the firm to precommit to future compensation the relative abilities of the internal and external contestants the cost of work effort and commonality within the firm and within the industry all have a role in determining the direction and magnitude of the handicap with different combinations of these factors resulting in very different outcomes whether one starts with the chan model or the tsoulouhas model empirical evidence is important to establish the significance of the competitive handicap against external candidates there has been no shortage of empirical investigations of the incentive effects of tournaments most follow one of two different analytic approaches one approach uses cross sectional or nonpanel data such as data on executive salary across firms gibbons and murphy 1990 leonard 1990 main et al 1993 or data from professional sports tournaments see for example ehrenberg 1990 few of these studies address the distinction between internal or external contestants agrawal et al 2002 is an exception it tests implications of the handicapping hypothesis derived in tsoulouhas et al 2001 by analyzing more than 1 000 ceo successions in large u s firms from 1974 to 1995 even though some of the results are also consistent with a traditional human capital interpretation and the key hypothesis can be derived from the tsoulouhas model only under certain conditions they offer some support for the existence and relevance of the competitive handicap against external contestants

evaluating the employment impact of a mandatory job search program this paper exploits area based piloting and age related eligibility rules to identify treatment effects of a labor market program the new deal for young people in the u k a central focus is on substitution displacement effects and on equilibrium wage effects the program includes extensive job assistance and wage subsidies to employers we find that the impact of the program significantly raised transitions to employment by about 5 percentage points the impact is robust to a wide variety of nonexperimental estimators however we present some evidence that this effect may not be as large in the longer run jel j18 j23 j38

changes in job security and their causes an empirical analysis for france 1982 2002 abstract in this paper we analyze the changes in the risks of involuntary job loss in france between 1982 and 2002 we find that these risks are higher in the 1990s than they were in the 1980s we develop an econometric analysis to separate the effects of institutional changes from the effects of new technologies our estimates show that the rise in job loss rates is significantly more pronounced in industries that have the largest share of r d workers and the largest rate of new technologies users these findings suggest that technological changes contribute to decreasing the incentive to keep workers for long period of time and to increasing job insecurity

job stability in the united states two key attributes of a job are its wage and its duration much has been made of changes in the wage distribution in the 1980s but little attention has been given to job durations since hall we fill this void by examining the temporal evolution of job retention rates in u s labor markets using data assembled from the sequence of current population survey job tenure supplements there have been relative declines in job stability for some of the groups that experienced the sharpest declines in relative wages however we find that aggregate job retention rates have remained stable

racial differences in residential and job mobility evidence concerning the spatial mismatch hypothesis abstract the spatial mismatch hypothesis asserts that job decentralization adversely impacts the labor market outcomes of african americans this paper tests whether race and job access have an independent effect on the probability of a joint residential move and job change no evidence is found to indicate that race directly influences the joint probability the paper finds however that poor job access has an independent negative effect on the probability of a joint residential move and job change because african american residences are heavily concentrated in american central cities these results suggest that african american workers may not be able to fully adjust as new jobs are created in the suburbs

tenure business cycle and the wage setting process abstract we analyze the interaction between job tenure and external labor market conditions in wage determination first we introduce a model that combines job matching with business cycle effects as the employment relationship progresses the worker appropriates a portion of the value of the match specific human capital she accumulates gradually becoming shielded from the cyclical variations in external labor market conditions the employment relationship is progressively internalized then we present empirical evidence supporting this prediction the elasticity of wages to the unemployment rate decreases with tenure this finding is robust to different specifications that allow for job heterogeneity and it contributes to the interpretation of recent evidence of changes in the effect of the business cycle on wages

testing for market power using a dynamic oligopoly model abstract we propose a dynamic reformulation of the oligopoly model of bresnahan 1982 and lau 1982 in an error correcting framework this reformulation addresses both statistical problems generated by short run dynamics in the data and incorporates important dynamic factors such as habit formation from the demand side and adjustment costs for the producer we also propose a test for separability of the variables involved in the identification of the market power parameter to illustrate the model the french market for fresh salmon is analysed the results suggest the salmon market to be competitive in the long run but indicate that the largest producer norway has some market power in the short run

downward nominal wage flexibility real or measurement error this paper presents a new method to correct for measurement error in wage data and applies this method to address an old question how much downward wage flexibility is there in the united states we apply standard methods developed by bai and perron to identify structural breaks in time series data applying these methods to wage histories allows us to identify when each person experiences a change in nominal wages the length of the period of constant nominal wages is left unrestricted and is allowed to differ across individuals as are the size and direction of the nominal wage change we apply these methods to data from the survey of income and program participation the evidence we provide indicates that the probability of a cut in nominal wages is substantially overstated in data that are not corrected for measurement error

job finding and separation rates in the oecd abstract we provide a set of comparable estimates of average monthly job finding and separation rates for over 20 oecd countries that can be used for the cross country analysis of labor markets

are workers permanently scarred by job displacements this paper investigates whether workers suffer lasting scars following job displacements using david t ellwood s 1982 terminology scars represent persistent effects whereas blemishes are transitory adjustments which dissipate over time more precisely dislocated individuals are defined as scarred if they continue to earn less or to be unemployed more than their nondisplaced counterparts even after the conclusion of a several year adjustment period

indonesia from showcase to basket case in the year after the onset of the east asian financial crisis a diverse set of national crises began to take shape among these indonesia s is by far the most severe national income was expected to contract in 1998 by between 10 and 15 and the decline to extend into 1999 1 according to government estimates the proportion of the population below the poverty line has risen to 40 and 15 million workers have lost their jobs thoenes 1998b 2 a severe drought has complicated matters driving up food prices and causing shortages in some locations 3 the banking system is essentially defunct suppressing exports and reducing whole industries to resort to barter as the last remaining source of working capital 4 the nation s currency the rupiah was still trading in july 1998 at around 15 000 to the us dollar levels at which it ceases tofunction as a meaningful store of economic value