inflation taxation and welfare with externalities and leisure this paper examines how inflation taxation affects resource allocation and welfare in a neoclassical growth model with leisure a production externality and money in the utility function switching from consumption taxation to inflation taxation to finance government spending reduces real money balances relative to income but increases consumption labor capital and output the net welfare effect of this switch depends crucially on the strength of the externality and on the elasticity of intertemporal substitution while it is always negative without the externality it is likely to be positive with a strong externality and elastic intertemporal substitution

cooperation against theft a test of incentives for water management in tunisia water theft carried out by manipulating water meters constrains volumetric pricing in semi arid regions cooperative management can reduce theft and improve incentives for efficient water use by inducing peer monitoring using a theoretical model we show that theft is more likely when prices are high punishments are weak and cooperatives are large we also show how cooperative membership and punishment levels are determined endogenously by constraints on monitoring we test the model on data from tunisia for the years 2001 2003 relying on instruments that proxy for unobservable monitoring costs the results confirm that well designed incentives can reduce theft and that constraints on monitoring costs affect institutional design

the inflation tax in a real business cycle model money is incorporated into a real business cycle model using a cash in advance constraint the model economy is used to analyze whether the business cycle is different in high inflation and low inflation economies and to analyze the impact of variability in the growth rate of money in addition the welfare cost of the inflation tax is measured and the steady state properties of high and low inflation economies are compared

learning about a new technology pineapple in ghana this paper investigates the role of social learning in the diffusion of a new agri cultural technology in ghana we use unique data on farmers communication patterns to define each individual s information neighborhood conditional on many potentially confounding variables we find evidence that farmers adjust their inputs to align with those of their information neighbors who were surpris ingly successful in previous periods the relationship of these input adjustments to experience further indicates the presence of social learning in addition applying the same method to input choices for another crop of known technol ogy correctly indicates an absence of social learning effects jel d83 013 033 q16

reserve requirements and output fluctuations abstract when trade is uncertain and sequential a fractional reserve banking system may give rise to endogenous monetary shocks these endogenous monetary shocks lead to fluctuations in capacity utilization and waste when fluctuations in the currency deposit ratio are the important source of the monetary shocks a high reserve requirement on checkable accounts can minimize this waste when fluctuations in the fraction of credit card transactions are important then low reserve requirements will minimize waste

oil volatility and sovereign risk of brics abstract we study the dependence between oil implied volatility shocks and brics sovereign risk from july 2009 to march 2017 first we examine spillovers in value at risk using multivariate regression quantiles and reveal that oil volatility represents a common risk for oil exporting and oil importing brics countries we also employ a quantile impulse response function and reveal the presence of an asymmetry in the mechanisms of shock transmissions between oil exporters russia and brazil and oil importers china and india the former are more sensitive to positive oil shocks whereas the latter are more sensitive to negative oil shocks second we measure the directional predictability in the quantiles using the bivariate cross quantilogram approach and show that in most cases a low high volatility of oil market predicts low high sovereign risk at various quantiles and lags policy implications are discussed

welfare criteria from choice an axiomatic analysis abstract we propose an axiomatic approach to the problem of deriving a linear welfare ordering from a choice function admissibility requires that the ordering assigned to a rational choice function is the one that rationalizes it neutrality states that the solution covaries with permutations of the alternatives persistence stipulates that the ordering assigned to two choice functions is also assigned to every choice function in between we prove that these properties characterize the sequential solution the best alternative is the alternative chosen from the universal set the second best is the one chosen when the best alternative is removed and so on we also discuss some alternative axioms and solutions

the returns from schooling in a diversified rural economy controlling for the endogeneity of activity choice and considering both household head and family schooling we findevid ence of high returns from schooling in both crop andnoncrop activities as schooling levels increase the returns from schooling shift away from crop production failure to control for activity selection andfamily schooling is likely to result in biasedestimates of the returns from schooling in individual activities copyright 2000 oxford university press

adoption of agricultural innovations in developing countries a survey this paper reviews various studies which have provided a description and possible explanation to patterns of innovation adoption in the agricultural sector the survey points out that the tendency of many studies to consider innovation adoption in dichotomous terms adoption nonadoption may not be appropriate in many cases where the actual decisions are defined over a more continuous range more attention needs to be given to the socio cultural and institutional environment in area studies so that their interrelation with economic factors affecting adoption can be inferred the presence of several interrelated innovations is another aspect that needs to be considered more carefully in future research since a number of simultaneous decisions may be involved furthermore the possibility of regular sequential patterns in adopting components of a new technological package should be specifically addressed in future studies finally the impact of differential adoption rates on land holding distribution merits attention in future research

efficient monetary allocations and the illiquidity of bonds abstract we construct a monetary economy with heterogeneity in discounting and consumption risk agents can insure against this risk with money and nominal government bonds but all trades must be monetary we demonstrate that a deflationary policy a la friedman cannot sustain the constrained efficient allocation as no arbitrage imposes too stringent a bound on the return money can pay the constrained efficient allocation can be sustained when bonds have positive yields and under certain conditions only if they are illiquid illiquidity meaning that bonds cannot be transformed into consumption as easily as cash is necessary to eliminate arbitrage opportunities due to disparities in shadow interest rates

an experiment on the pure theory of consumer s behaviour by checking whether consumer demand satisfies the axioms of revealed preference one can test the empirical validity of the neoclassical theory of consumer behaviour however applying the axioms to actual consumer purchase data is difficult if not impossible since it poses serious problems of both a methodological and a practical nature after commenting on the few existing empirical studies in this field we summarise the results from an experimental approach to revealed preference theory data were obtained through a controlled experiment that involved real consumption of the goods chosen we find that most subjects violated the axioms

well being and or quality of life in eu countries through a multidimensional index of sustainability abstract the aim of my paper is to demonstrate that sen s theory of well being can be applied to make the concept of sustainable human development operational through the building of a multidimensional index of sustainability which takes into account at the same time economic social and environmental variables this index may be considered an alternative to the current measures of welfare sustainability since not only conventional measures such as gdp but also multi attribute indices such as human development index hdi genuine savings index of sustainable economic welfare isew etc are found to be inadequate to make the concept of sustainable development operational therefore the limitations of these measures of welfare sustainability justify the search for a new index of sustainability this index will show at the operational level how sen s theory of well being can be useful to sustainable development it was applied to eu countries using the standardised deviation methodology being the closest and most suitable methodology to be adopted for building multidimensional indices the factor analysis methodology will also be used in my paper lastly the comparison between sen s trend of sustainability and gdp trend index number which are both of them applied to italy will show how much the criticisms and the limitations directed towards the indicator of gdp are founded

directional predictability from oil market uncertainty to sovereign credit spreads of oil exporting countries evidence from rolling windows and crossquantilogram analysis abstract given the recent collapse of oil prices this study investigates the directional predictability from the oil market uncertainty to the sovereign credit default swap cds spreads of four oil exporting gcc countries bahrain qatar saudi arabia and united arab emirates and five other oil exporting countries brazil mexico norway russia and venezuela using the modified bootstrap rolling window approach the empirical results reveal a significant directional predictability from oil uncertainty to the cds spreads of most of those oil exporting countries during the subperiods 2010 2011 and 2014 2015 that is during the periods when oil volatility follows a rising trend the most significant directional predictability is found for qatar bahrain saudi arabia and norway particularly during the 2014 2015 oil price collapse subperiod whereas there is no directional predictability found in the case of brazil for mexico the oil market uncertainty predicts cds spreads mostly during 2014 and for venezuela the directional predictability flows are highly impactful and concentrated during 2011 13 to check the robustness of our estimations we use a novel quantile dependence measure called the cross quantilogram that was developed by han et al 2016 the estimation results of this approach confirm our main findings and indicate that the surge in oil volatility predicts the cds spreads in different quantiles overall the findings highlight that the sovereign credit risk of the gcc and the other oil exporting countries is at least partially driven or directionally predicted by the oil volatility shocks this has important implications for investment and policy decisions

inequality aversion versus risk aversion inequality aversion and risk aversion are widely assumed in economic models however existing economic literature fails to distinguish between the two this paper presents methodology and a laboratory experiment which separates inequality aversion from risk aversion in a set of laboratory experiments subjects had to choose between two risky alternatives which pay meaningful prizes with the same individual risk but different levels of egalitarianism thus the choice of the more egalitarian alternative implies a higher level of inequality aversion the experiment was conducted among children some of whom live on a communal system kibbutz and some in the city

the economics of water conserving technology adoption in tunisia an empirical estimation of farmer technology choice economic theory tells us that increases in the relative prices of natural resources should cause farmers to switch to techniques that use fewer farming resources the adoption of resource conserving technology is one possible response that can lead toward a more environmentally sustainable outcome do farmers respond to changes in natural resource prices and quality by adopting available resource conserving technology this article investigates a case study of decisions made by tunisian farmers as to whether or not they should invest in water conserving drip irrigation technology as a function of natural resource prices and quality along with farm and farmer characteristics in contrast to many studies of technology adoption this work uses both the standard revealed preference analysis of who adopts and a direct elicitation of the reasons for adoption or nonadoption by farmers by reviving an ancient methodology the direct question to elicit real preferences from farmers the research goes beyond the restrictive assumptions of the commonly used random utility models the combination of these techniques allows triangulation on the causes of technology adoption and helps insure that the results are more than a statistical artifact excerpt

the stability of social preferences in a low income neighborhood we investigate whether social preferences are stable across contexts using a field population of low income americans we develop and demonstrate a simplified visually based experimental methodology appropriate for this population we show that choices in a laboratory public goods game predict giving in real donation experiments as well as self reported donations and volunteering outside the lab at the same time choices vary systematically by individual characteristics and decision context thus our results provide evidence both for an underlying stable social preference and for the role of context in influencing the expression of that preference

sentimental fools a critique of amartya sen s notion of commitment abstract commitment is problematic because one sometimes pursues it against one s interest to solve it the paper proposes a distinction between non binding and binding commitments non binding commitment is about ambition such as becoming a great chef which bolsters welfare in the pecuniary sense as well as self respect in contrast binding commitment is about honesty while it diminishes welfare it augments self integrity the neoclassical view reduces both commitments to interest while the multiple self approach separates both commitments from interest the separation permits the confusion of sentimental fools who enter commitments without regard to interest with rational sentimentalists who take interest into consideration

currency elasticity and banking panics theory and evidence existing models of banking panics contain no role for monetary factors and fail to explain why some banking systems experienced panics while others did not a monetary model is constructed where seasonal variations in the demand for liquidity and credit play a critical role in generating banking panics these panics occur when there are restrictions on the issue of currency in private banks but they do not occur if banks are unrestricted empirical evidence from canada and the united states for the period 1880 1910 is largely consistent with the predictions of the model

liquidity loanable funds and real activity abstract this paper develops a general equilibrium model of two traditional explanations of the monetary black box linking money and real activity the liquidity effect and the loanable funds effect these effects are modeled with a monetary production economy in which central bank injections of cash are funnelled into the economy through the credit market since only borrowers have direct access to the newly injected cash monetary injections cause nominal interest rates to fall if firms are borrowers then monetary injections also increase current and future real activity

the dynamic impacts of monetary policy an exercise in tentative identification it is currently popular to identify monetary policy shocks with innovations in some measure of reserves or in the federal funds rate these assumptions about the interest elasticity of the supply of or demand for reserves imply monetary policy shocks that produce dynamic responses of macroeconomic variables that are anomalous relative to traditional monetary analyses this paper tentatively identifies supply and demand shocks in the markets for reserves and m2 for the 1980s and contrasts them with results for the 1970s in the later period identified monetary policy shocks have dynamic impacts that are fully consistent with traditional analyses

in search of the liquidity effect abstract a short run negative relationship between monetary aggregates and interest rates the liquidity effect is central to discussions of monetary policy this paper searches for this empirical relationship we investigate whether the characterization of the liquidity effect is sensitive to i changes in sample period ii conditioning the correlations on past information iii assuming money growth is exogenous and iv treating monetary changes as anticipated or unanticipated the correlations change substantially in each case we conclude that the traditional analysis and modern models which rely completely on demand side behavior cannot explain the observed correlations a successful characterization of the liquidity effect requires identification of both private and policy behavior

valuing health care using willingness to pay a comparison of the payment card and dichotomous choice methods this paper compares willingness to pay wtp estimates generated from the dichotomous choice dc and payment card pc approaches in a split sample wtp experiment concerned with allocating scarce health care resources across three health care interventions the dc approach is shown consistently to generate larger welfare estimates than the pc observed difference between pc and dc experiments cannot be explained by the inclusion of non demanders or methods of statistical analysis but may be partly explained by yea saying no evidence of range bias or mid point bias was found with pc responses data were also collected on respondents ordinal rankings of the three interventions and person trade offs ptos neither of these approaches converged with wtp future work must address the decision heuristics individuals employ when responding to valuation experiments

dynamics of variety change on wheat farms in pakistan a duration analysis abstract decades after the green revolution sustaining wheat productivity remains an important policy goal for the government of pakistan understanding the speed of diffusion of new wheat varieties can contribute to this goal we apply duration analysis to identify the factors that shorten the time until a farmer replaces one modern variety by another and test hypotheses concerning two recurring themes of the green revolution farm size differences and the role of information sources in seed diffusion we find that time to adoption averages only 4 years but is shorter on larger farms factors that speed variety change also differ by farm size extension and media sources of information significantly influence adoption among larger farmers relative to information gained through social relationships but this is not the case for marginal farmers traits related to consumption quality speed adoption on smaller wheat farms where families both sell and consume their wheat higher yields drive adoption for the most subsistence oriented marginal group

optimal monetary policy in an economy with incomplete markets and idiosyncratic risk abstract this study investigates an incomplete markets economy in which the saving behavior of a continuum of infinitely lived agents is influenced by precautionary saving motives and borrowing constraints agents can use two types of assets interest bearing ious and money to smooth consumption money is valued because of a timing friction in the bond market in particular the bond market closes before agents observe their idiosyncratic productivity shock i find that the friedman rule is not optimal for this economy the results indicate that the optimal allocation has a rate of inflation of 10 and a positive amount of private credit held by the government a positive inflation rate transfers resources from agents with big endowments to those holding bonds which improves risk sharing and therefore welfare however for higher rates of inflation agents economize on money holdings offsetting the insurance effects and causing a reduction in welfare furthermore higher rates of inflation discourage agents from borrowing and the endogenous lower bound on bond holdings is higher than the exogenous borrowing limit high rates of inflation therefore exacerbate frictions in the bond market

the effect of household wealth on the adoption of improved maize varieties in zambia abstract production and price risks that could render input use unprofitable sometimes prevent rural households from benefiting from input technological change the household s ability to cope with such risks and hence benefit from input technological change is often positively related to its wealth or stock of productive assets empirical evidence however suggests a non linear relationship between wealth and adoption of new agricultural technologies so that within a rural community households on the lower wealth continuum behave differently from those on the higher level using farm level data collected from 300 randomly selected households in three districts of zambia in 2004 2005 crop season this paper first stratifies households into poorly and well endowed households based on their access to productive assets and estimates separate double hurdle models for the adoption of improved high yielding maize ihym varieties for each group the results show that factors influencing the adoption and use intensity of ihym varieties differ between the two groups this draws attention to the need for recommending wealth group specific interventions to increase the adoption and use intensity of such varieties and their subsequent impacts on food security and general livelihoods of the households the explicit testing for the possibility that differences in household wealth affect the way in which other variables influence adoption decisions is the paper s unique contribution to the adoption literature

money and interest in a cash in advance economy the authors analyze an aggregative general equilibrium model in which the use of money is motivated by a cash in advance constraint applied to purchases of a subset of consumption goods the system is subject to both real and monetary shocks which are economy wide and observed by all they develop methods for verifying the existence of characterizing and explicitly calculating equilibria copyright 1987 by the econometric society

dynamic nonlinear impacts of oil price returns and financial uncertainties on credit risks of oil exporting countries abstract this paper investigates the dynamic and nonlinear impact of oil price returns on the sovereign credit default swap cds spreads for the oil rich countries of the gulf cooperation council gcc and other important oil exporting countries namely venezuela mexico and russia we employ the standard quantile regression analysis the rolling quantile regression and finally the quantile on quantile qq approach that allows one to investigate the dependence dynamics of the sovereign cds spreads under different credit market conditions the empirical results show that oil price returns significantly and favorably decrease the sovereign credit risk premium of the non gcc oil exporting countries under consideration however the results also suggest no or little impact on the sovereign credit risk premium of saudi arabia uae and norway which have the most significant sovereign wealth funds in the world the negative i e favorable impact of oil price returns on the sovereign cds spreads where present gradually increases with the quantile level and is the highest during the bullish credit market conditions the results also show that those cds spreads are more sensitive to the global bond market uncertainty factor than to the global equity market uncertainty factor

money capital and redistributive effects of monetary policies abstract this paper examines the redistributive role of expansionary monetary policies for this purpose a physical environment with heterogeneous agents is described to emphasize two frictions one is a within market friction that agents cannot borrow within each market the other is a cross market friction that agents cannot borrow across markets although a contractionary monetary policy is required to eliminate the within market friction as in many previous monetary models an expansionary monetary policy is required to eliminate the cross market friction when both frictions are operational no monetary policy alone can restore efficiency and the second best monetary policy requires the money growth rate to exceed the friedman rule the first best allocation can be achieved by a combination of fiscal policies and the friedman rule

are patient regarding preferences stable evidence from a laboratory experiment with physicians and medical students from different countries abstract we quantify patient regarding preferences by fitting a bounded rationality model to data from an incentivized laboratory experiment where chinese medical doctors german medical students and chinese medical students decide under different payment schemes we find a remarkable stability in patient regarding preferences when comparing subject pools and we cannot reject the hypothesis of equal patient regarding preferences in the three groups the results suggest that a health economic experiment can provide knowledge that reach beyond the student subject pool and that the preferences of decision makers in one cultural context can be of relevance in a very different cultural context

indifference or indecisiveness choice theoretic foundations of incomplete preferences abstract a commonly held belief in economics is that an individual s preferences that are revealed by her choices must be complete this paper takes issue with this position by showing that one may be able to distinguish between indifference and indecisiveness of an agent upon observing her choice behavior we relax the standard weak axiom of revealed preferences warp and show that a potent theory of individual choice with and without risk can be founded on this weaker axiom when it is coupled with some other standard postulates the most notable features here are that an agent is allowed to be indifferent between certain alternatives and indecisive about others moreover an outside observer can identify which of these actually occur upon examining the observable choice behavior of the decision maker as an application we also show how our theory may be able to cope with the classical preference reversal phenomenon

contextual inference in markets on the informational content of product lines context can influence decisions this malleability of choice is usually invoked as evidence that people do not maximize stable preference orderings in a market equilibrium however context conveys payoff relevant information to consumers consequently these consumers rationally violate naive formulations of standard choice theoretic principles i identify informational asymmetries under which apparently anomalous behaviors namely the compromise effect and choice overload arise as market equilibria firms respond to consumers contextual inference in case of the compromise effect a firm may introduce premium loss leaders expensive goods of overly high quality that increase the demand for other goods

internal consistency of choice internal consistency of choice has been a central concept in economics decision theory and social choice this idea is essentially confused we cannot determine whether a choice function is consistent without referring to something external to choice e g objectives values the standard results have to be reexamined in this light kenneth j arrow s general possibility theorem is extended in this paper without demanding any internal consistency of social choice or any notion of social rationality copyright 1993 by the econometric society

citizens and wetlands evaluating the ely citizens jury abstract a citizens jury cj is a method to aid decision making by public bodies and is loosely based on the idea of a criminal jury ordinary members of the public acting in their capacity as citizens concerned with the public good rather than consumers concerned with private interest are drawn together to reach a public decision the jury is independent and its verdict is expected to carry some authority derived from an understanding that the jury is representative and the deliberation is satisfactory a cj was organised as part of a larger uk study which also conducted a contingent valuation survey on broadly the same valuation issue land use in a former wetland region in cambridgeshire uk a major aim of the study was to investigate whether cjs allow views of a different kind to those captured by contingent valuation surveys to be expressed views couched in terms of public benefits right and wrong and the common good if this is true cjs offer a promising forum for articulating views and even recommending decisions about public goods including environment features

dynamic learning and context dependence in sequential attribute based stated preference valuation questions a hybrid stated preference model is presented that combines the referendum contingent valuation response format with an experimentally designed set of attributes a sequence of valuation questions is asked to a random sample in a mailout mail back format econometric analysis shows greater discrimination between alternatives in the final choice in the sequence and the vector of preference parameters shifts lead and lag choice sets have a structural influence on current choices and unobserved factors induce positive correlation across the responses these results indicate that people learn about their preferences for attributebased environmental goods by comparing attribute levels across choice sets

a comparison of two methods for eliciting contingent valuations of colorectal cancer screening willingness to pay wtp is being used increasingly in health technology assessment although a number of methodological issues remain unresolved using data obtained from a randomised questionnaire survey we investigated the metrical properties of two wtp formats the open ended question versus the payment scale in the context of screening for colorectal cancer approximately 2800 responses were analysed household income attitudes toward health promotion and personal risk perceptions were the principal determinants of the nature and value of response in comparison with the open ended format the payment scale achieved a higher completion rate and generated higher valuations we believe that a framing effect is the most plausible explanation for these differences in performance in contrast to previous findings we do not find subjects perceptions of the resource cost of interventions to be a convincing explanation for either their wtp values or inconsistencies between values and preferences although a proportion of respondents protested at the notion of valuation the majority offer positive valuations although typically of a lower value that non protesters

rationalizing choice with multi self models this paper studies a class of multi self decision making models proposed in economics psychology and marketing in this class choices arise from the set dependent aggregation of a collection of utility functions where the aggregation procedure satises some simple properties we propose a method for characterizing the extent of irrationality in a choice behavior and use this measure to provide a lower bound on the set of choice behaviors that can be rationalized with n utility functions under an additional assumption scale invariance we show that generically at most ve reasons are needed for every mistake

friedman meets hosios efficiency in search models of money this article studies optimal monetary policy in an economy with endogenous search decisions we show that the same frictions that give fiat money a positive value generate an inefficient quantity of goods in each trade and an inefficient number of trades the friedman rule eliminates the first inefficiency and the hosios rule the second a monetary equilibrium attains the social optimum if and only if both rules are satisfied when they cannot be satisfied simultaneously optimal monetary policy achieves only the second best we analyse the conditions under which the second best monetary policy exceeds the friedman rule

when more alternatives lead to less choice this paper shows that when the alternatives offered to consumers span the preference space as it would be chosen by a firm search or evaluation costs may lead consumers not to search and not to choose if too many or too few alternatives are offered if too many alternatives are offered then the consumer may have to engage in many searches or evaluations to find a satisfactory fit this may be too costly and result in the consumer avoiding making a choice altogether if too few alternatives are offered then the consumer may not search or choose fearing that an acceptable choice is unlikely these two forces result in the existence of a finite optimal number of alternatives that maximizes the probability of choice

procedural analysis of choice rules with applications to bounded rationality i study how limited abilities to process information affect choice behav ior i model the decision making process by an automaton and mea sure the complexity of a specific choice rule by the minimal number of states an automaton implementing the rule uses to process informa tion i establish that any choice rule that is less complicated than utility maximization displays framing effects i then prove that choice rules that result from an optimal trade off between maximizing utility and minimizing complexity are history dependent satisficing procedures that display primacy and recency effects jel d01 d03 dil d83 in 1981 an internal study by american airlines found that travel agents booked the first flight that appeared on their computer screen 53 percent of the time and a flight that appeared somewhere on the first screen almost 92 percent of the time this provided an incentive for american to manipulate the order in which flights were listed on american s sabre computer reservation system which domi nated the market for electronic flight booking allegations by smaller airlines that american and united airlines which owned the second largest computer reserva tion system apollo engaged in such manipulations led the us federal govern ment to regulate screen display in computer reservation systems 1 this example in which the order of the alternatives affects decision making is by no means unique in elections for example being listed first on the ballot increases the likelihood of winning office mainly at the expense of candidates listed in the middle of the ballot 2 in competitions judges tend to award higher

sequential markets and the suboptimality of the friedman rule a cash in advance model with sequential markets is constructed where unanticipated monetary injections are nonneutral and can potentially produce large liquidity effects however if the monetary authority adheres to an optimal money rule money should not respond to unanticipated shocks so that a friedman rule is suboptimal and the monetary authority does not exploit the liquidity effect quantitatively the model can generate variability in money and nominal interest rates close to what is observed and can produce data with no obvious evidence of the existence of liquidity effects

from participation to adoption comparing the effectiveness of soil conservation programs in the peruvian andes many efforts are made to promote soil conservation in developing countries this paper compares the effect of two programs promoting soil conservation in peru on the adoption decision of households one program applies a top down approach with soil conservation as its core activity the other program applies a participatory approach offering a portfolio of activities in order to improve rural livelihoods the decisions on participation and adoption are estimated with a trivariate probit model the results show that each program attracts different types of households and achieves different outcomes in terms of soil conservation

money and inventories in an economy with uncertain and sequential trade abstract we propose a model in which an unanticipated reduction in the money supply leads to a contemporaneous increase in inventories followed by periods with lower output this persistent real effect does not require price rigidities or real shocks and confusion it is obtained in a model of uncertain and sequential trade in which markets are cleared and agents are price takers

price dispersion and inflation new facts and theoretical implications abstract in workhorse macroeconomic models price dispersion is a central determinant of welfare the cost of business cycles optimal inflation and the tradeoff between inflation and output stability while price dispersion increases with inflation in the models this relationship is negative in the data due to sales prices the comovement of price dispersion and inflation for regular prices is positive a model with sales can quantitatively match the comovement in the data whereas a range of similar models without sales cannot even for regular prices these findings have important implications for welfare calculations optimal inflation and the effects of monetary shocks

asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks on energy returns and volatility under different market conditions abstract based on daily data from 28 june 1990 to 31 october 2018 we investigate the asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks on energy crude oil gas and heating oil returns and volatility under different market conditions by using a quantile regression model the results show that geopolitical risks have significantly negative effects on crude oil returns in the bearish market and on heating oil returns in the normal and bullish markets but have no effects on gas returns meanwhile the impacts of geopolitical risks on crude oil volatility are significantly positive in different market conditions and the impacts on gas and heating oil volatility are mainly negative but not significant in addition we further divide geopolitical risks into geopolitical threats and geopolitical acts and find that geopolitical threats and acts have heterogeneous effects on energy returns and volatility