profit maximising goes global the race to the bottom we explore four decades of cyclical and long run dynamics in income distribution and economic activity for a panel of 13 oecd countries as measured by the wage share and output gap when modeled as predator prey dynamics economic activity in oecd countries is weakly profit led convergence to a long run equilibrium is relatively slow delaying the profit squeeze stage for many years our race to the bottom model suggests that the oecd countries have been engaged in undercutting each other s real unit labour costs an extension of the model shows that the long run equilibrium has been shifting south west towards a lower wage share it may even be that this race has the undesirable consequence of decreasing economic activity

deficit finance and monetary dynamics in brazil and mexico abstract the paper develops a model of seigniorage in an open economy linking inflation the government budget and the external balance it introduces financial markets and interest rates in the traditional cagan style model of inflationary dynamics and it evaluates the experiences of brazil and mexico the model relates inflation in the 1980s to interest payments on the external public debt the paper also argues that inflationary finance has been combined with very fast growth of domestic debt setting the stage in brazil for unsustainable domestic debt growth in the sargent wallace style the collor plan stopped this process temporarily

finance inflation and employment a post keynesian kaleckian analysis the purpose of this paper is to contribute to the post keynesian kaleckian macroeconomic literature we develop a macroeconomic model that explicitly integrates the role of borrowing and cash payment commitments on outstanding debt interest plus principal repayment into the consumption and investment expenditures as well as into the inflation generating process we explore the way that finance influences the distribution effects of inflation in the demand side of a money credit using economy we suggest a new phillips curve that encapsulates the impact of financial commitments on wage and profit claims we argue that high debt and cash payment commitments are likely to be associated with a positive demand side effect of inflation on the rate of employment and that they might be conducive to a negative supply side effect of employment on the inflation rate the author 2011 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved

the resurgence of inflation in brazil 1974 1986 abstract this paper examines various factors which contributed to the resurgence of inflation in brazil in the 1970s and 1980s and the reasons for the failure of ortodox austerity programs to control it the evidence seems to black the school of thought which considers the best explanation for the recent inflationary experience to lie with the spread of formal and informal indexing leading to an inertial type of inflation the latter has led some economists to recommend heterodox methods of inflation control an epilogue briefly describes brazil s recent attempt to apply such methods

explaining the early years of the euro exchange rate an episode of learning about a new central bank abstract many observers were surprised by the depreciation of the euro after its launch in 1999 handicapped by a short sample explanations tended to appeal to anecdotes and lessons learned from the experiences of other currencies now sample sizes are just becoming large enough to permit reasonable empirical analyses the model of this paper provides empirical support for the euro exchange rate to be affected by learning by focusing on euro area inflation as the key fundamental the model is structured toward the dynamics of learning about ecb policy with regard to inflation while a stated target inflation rate of 2 percent existed it may be that market participants had to be convinced that the ecb would indeed generate low and stable inflation with a prior distribution drawn from the pre euro ems experience and updating based upon the realized experience each month following the introduction of the euro the evidence suggests that it was not until december of 1999 that the market assessed a greater than 50 percent probability that the inflation process had changed to a new regime from this point on trend depreciation of the euro ends and further increases in the probability of the new inflation process are associated with euro appreciation versus the us dollar the british pound and the japanese yen

real and money wages output and inflation in the semi industrialized world recent structuralist ideas about real and money wage changes are reviewed addressing six questions 1 in an economy closed to trade do real wage increases cause output to rise or fall 2 if output is at an upper bound what are the roles of real wage and wealth movements in macro adjustment 3 taking effective demand into account do money wage cuts stimulate employment 4 in an open economy does money wage reduction or devaluation make output rise 5 at an output bound what are the respective roles of wage reduction and monetary restraint in slowing inflation 6 if inflation is driven by cost with output below capacity how do wage dynamics affect stabilization programmes based on de indexation and price freezes institutional factors suggest that wage cutting may be a counterproductive answer to all these policy questions in semi industrialized economies

the world bank global keynesianism and the distribution of the gains from growth sir hans singer whom this volume celebrates was a pupil of john maynard keynes at cambridge and in 1945 attended the bretton woods negotiations at which keynes and others designed the institutions which now seek to regulate and stimulate the international economy the world bank the imf and the gatt sir hans has provided ever since that time frequent creative suggestions concerning the way in which all of those institutions separately and in relation to the un system should set about the task of global economic governance with a particular flurry of activity around 1994 5 when the bretton woods institutions celebrated their half century by this time of course the bretton woods institutions had departed from their original articles of agreement and implicated the world bank progressively more deeply in policy based programme lending alongside its original project lending functions this paper attempts a little belatedly to take up some of the concerns aroused by that flurry of activity with particular reference to the world bank which keynes as we saw above saw as having the principal stimulative and entrepreneurial role the concerns have been expressed by sir hans in the following way the shift to programme lending and policy conditionality tied in with three other developments first the withering away of the development functions of the un created a gap into which it was tempting and easy for the world bank to move together with the imf second the debt crisis of the 1980s made the developing countries pliant in accepting conditionality pressures from the bretton woods institutions third in the process of replacing the un as a focus of development policy guidance and in line with trends in the major industrial countries the world bank developed again together with the imf a new washington consensus emphasising government failures market orientation liberalisation privatisation etc now the purpose of this is i am using the language of the imf and world bank now to cut down today but in doing so lay the foundations for subsequent sustainable growth now the fact is that if you cut down today it is just as likely that if you cut investment today that does not lay the foundations for subsequent growth that does exactly the opposite the imf are quite fond of illustrating their policy with the french proverb reculer pour mieux sauter the trouble is that what we have today is that in all too many cases the developing countries stand on the edge of an abyss and therefore by stepping back they don t gain manoeuvring space for moving forward but they fall into the abyss singer 1995 p 469 and 1994 p 55

the brazilian economy in 1994 1999 from the real plan to inflation targets this paper investigates the three main events that shook the brazilian economy in 1994 1999 a period that represented a turning point in the country s economic history these events were the implementation of the real plan in 1994 the devaluation crisis in 1999 and the subsequent adoption of inflation targets the principal contributions of this period were the drastic reduction of high inflation rates the biggest problem in brazil since the 1970s and the reorientation towards economic growth which were also supported by a privatisation programme the openness of the economy to foreign capital a trade liberalisation process and the ongoing fiscal adjustments nevertheless the period also left its scars such as high budget and current account deficits accompanied by a policy of elevated interest rates and until 1999 a highly appreciated exchange rate the paper concludes with a cautiously optimistic evaluation of the country s economic future based on the accomplishments of the 1990s and the possibility of a long term commitment to low inflation targets

financialisation income distribution and aggregate demand in the usa this paper investigates the effects of financialisation and functional income distribution on aggregate demand in the usa by estimating the effects of the increase in rentier income dividends and interest payments and housing and financial wealth on consumption and investment the redistribution of income in favour of profits suppresses consumption whereas the increase in the rentier income and wealth has positive effects a higher rentier income decreases investment without the wealth effects the overall effect of the changes in distribution on aggregate demand would have been negative thus a pro capital income distribution leads to a slightly negative effect on growth i e the usa economy is moderately wage led

south north trade and southern growth bleak prospects from the structuralist point of view abstract a three country three commodity model is developed to illustrate the dynamics of growth among the north the south and opec one conclusion is that the southern growth rate will be increased by faster growth of northern capital with a steady state response coefficient of unity however if the steady state is perturbed by increases in northern productivity or the oil price then the coefficient becomes less than one in the short run higher capital flows from north to south increase the former s growth rate but may have only marginal impact on growth in the south higher productivity in the south will slow its growth rate and reduce its terms of trade when the engel elasticity of northern demand for its exports is less than one these and other results follow from surplus labor in the south and its dependent position in international trade from which it will be difficult to escape

from the classical economists to empiricists a review of the terms of trade controversy contrary to the classical position the works of prebisch and singer in the middle of the last century launched the controversial hypothesis of a long term decline in the terms of trade of primary products vis a vis manufactured goods and a corresponding decline in the terms of trade of developing countries vis a vis advanced ones the present study traces the origin and evolution of the hypothesis and reviews the related statistical debate it also reviews the theoretical support for the prebisch singer hypothesis it is an exercise in the history of economic thought to trace how the controversies surrounding the terms of trade have evolved over time specifically noting that with the development of the field of econometrics the central thesis of the argument got lost somewhere in the realm of hi tech statistical debates

vertical trading and uneven development abstract the phenomenon of vertical trading in which the center exports a good involving a high degree of processing which leads to economy wide learning and the periphery exports a good which does not generate such effects is formalized in a simple dynamic model of trade it is shown that the periphery can lose from such trade relations conditions under which this can occur are shown to involve parameters of the learning functions and the sizes of the two countries

inflation growth and wage policy a brazilian perspective abstract a growth inflation model based on recent brazilian experience is developed the paper focuses on brazilian compulsory wage policy in order to analyse current stabilization policy issues in this context it is argued that orthodox stabilization policies as exemplified by an autonomous reduction in the rate of monetary growth implies both a temporary and a permanent decrease in output growth if the wage formula as in brazil provides for lagged price indexation the idea of promoting stabilization through full wage indexation is also examined

monetary policy strategies for latin america the authors examine possible monetary policy strategies for latin america that may help lock in the gains the region attained in the fight against inflation in the 1990s instead of focusing the debate about the conduct of monetary policy on whether the nominal exchange rate should be fixed or flexible the focus should be on whether the monetary policy regime appropriately constrains discretion in monetary policymaking three basic frameworks deserve serious discussion as possible long run strategies for monetary policy in latin america the authors examine the advantages and disadvantages of a hard exchange rate peg monetary targeting and inflation targeting in light of monetary policy s recent track record in several latin american countries looking for clues about which of the strategies might be best suited to economies in the region the answer it depends on the country s institutional environment some countries appear not to have the institutions to constrain monetary policy if discretion is allowed in those countries there is a strong argument for hard pegs including full dollarization that allow little or no discretion to monetary authorities in countries such as chile which can constrain discretion inflation targeting is likely to produce a monetary policy that keeps inflation low yet appropriately copes with domestic and foreign shocks monetary targeting as a strategy for latin america is not viable because of the likely instability of the relationship between inflation and monetary aggregates of which there is ample international evidence no monetary strategy can solve the basic problems that have existed in latin american economies for a long time the authors welcome the recent move in latin american countries toward inflation targeting but say no policy will succeed unless government policies also create the right institutional environment

international competition income distribution and economic growth this paper shows that the neo keynesian case for wage led growth does not generally hold in an open economy model wage increases cause a loss of competitiveness that reduces the trade balance if the economy is relatively open to trade and price elasticities satisfy certain restrictions the worsening of the trade balance more than outweighs the increase in workers consumption thus reducing the growth rate the main theoretical innovation is a flexible markup pricing rule that allows changes in unit labor costs and exchange rates to affect profit margins implications for international relations and class conflict are discussed copyright 1989 by oxford university press

income distribution and current account imbalances we develop a three country stock flow consistent macroeconomic model to study the effects of changes in both personal and functional income distribution on national current account balances each country has a household sector and a non household corporate sector the household sector is divided into income deciles and consumer demand is characterized by upward looking status comparisons following the relative income hypothesis of consumption the strength of consumption emulation depends on country specific institutions the model is calibrated for the united states germany and china simulations suggest that a substantial part of the increase in household debt and the decrease in the current account in the united states since the early 1980s can be explained by the interplay of rising top end household income inequality and institutions on the other hand the weak domestic demand and increasing current account balances of germany and china since the mid 1990s are strongly related to shifts in the functional income distribution at the expense of the household sector

avoiding some costs of inflation and crawling toward hyperinflation the case of the brazilian domestic currency substitute the pattern of a classical hyperinflation is an acute acceleration of the inflation level accompanied by rapid substitution away from domestic currency until the real plan 1 july 1994 however brazil experienced inflation levels well above 1000 a year since 1988 without entering the classical hyperinflation path two elements played key roles in differentiating the brazilian case from the classical hyperinflations indexation and the provision of a reliable domestic currency substitute i e the provision of liquidity to interest bearing assets this paper claims that the existence of this domestic currency substitute was the main source of both the inability of the brazilian central bank to fight inflation and of the unwillingness of brazilians to face the costs of such a fight the provision of the domestic currency substitute through the banking sector is modeled and the main macroeconomic consequences of this monetary regime are derived those are the lack of a nominal anchor for the price system due to the passive monetary policy and the non controllability of seigniorage unlike traditional models of hyperinflations

unions wages and labour markets in indian industry 1960 86 the purpose of this article is to explain the movement of wages in the manufacturing sector in india for the period 1960 86 a structuralist macroeconomic model is advanced where the changing strength structure and activities of unions are considered explicitly the objective is to disentangle the effects of factors specific to the bargaining process from the effects of overall economic development we consider two available wage series and we make a priori assumptions regarding the nature of both the labour and product markets associated with these series our econometric results support our characterisations and we show that the effects of both union related variables and overall macroeconomic variables differ across the two wage series

the fundamental determinants of the terms of trade reconsidered long run and long period equilibrium ronald findlay s analysis of the long run equilibrium uniform international growth rates determinants of the terms of trade in the context of north south models of trade and growth is reconsidered when the north is a keynesian and a kaleckian economy also examined are the determinants of the terms of trade in long period equilibrium uniform profit rates so that the consequences of capital mobility are accounted for two surprising results are noted first the long run terms of trade when the north is a kaleckian economy will be independent of the north s markup and second in the long period it is theoretically possible for the north to raise its markup but experience a deterioration in its own terms of trade copyright 1990 by american economic association

tariff policy and equilibrium growth in the world economy abstract the potential for each region s use of commercial policy in a dynamic asymmetric north south model is examined the north is the producer of a good which may be consumed or invested manufactured in a solow type economy the south produces consumer goods in a lewis labor surplus economy it is shown that although a country with monopoly power in trade may improve its welfare in the short run through imposing a tariff such a policy might ultimately be detrimental

on prices and economic power explaining recent changes in intersectoral relations in the indian economy two contrasting views about the relationship between agriculture and industry and in particular about the optimal level of the terms of trade between these two sectors are identified and first set in the context of the political economy of contemporary india methodological issues relating to the correct measurement of intersectoral price shifts are taken up and it is shown that these have considerable bearing on current controversies it is argued in particular that single factor explanations of the behaviour of the terms of trade lack credibility and that these have to be analysed in the context of wider issues of growth and imbalance in developing economies

pasinetti s processes luigi pasinetti s contributions to economics cover an enormous range of topics this review article concentrates on growth accounting in his natural system and his models of post keynesian growth and distribution the natural system is restated in terms of social accounting matrices and its empirical applicability is assessed growth theory is discussed in terms of relevant macroeconomic causal patterns or model closures c 1995 academic press ltd copyright 1995 by oxford university press

macroeconomic issues for latin america abstract recent macroeconomic issues in latin america are reviewed with an emphasis on theory topics covered include multiple equilibria from hysteresis or increasing returns exchange rate management and the output and asset market effects of devaluation speculation interest rate management and financial reform government behavior income distribution and growth inertial inflation and heterodox policy shocks and disequilibrium theories

demand and distribution in integrated economies aggregate demand is influenced by the functional income distribution of an economy and that of its trading partners this relationship between income distribution and output is analyzed in a short run two country neo kaleckian model the effects of devaluation and redistribution are discussed in detail trade and redistribution within one country interact and output increases or decreases with changes in either depending on the specific distributional and exchange rate movements the marshall lerner condition is shown to be equivalent to the assumption of expansionary devaluation if devaluation increases output national redistribution policy toward wage earners is also more likely to be expansionary author s abstract

inertial inflation and the cruzado plan abstract on 28 january 1986 the brazilian goverment decided to freeze all prices this article examines the heterodox shock and the development by brazilian economist of the theory of inertial inflation which served as a theoretical basis for the shock

demographic growth harrodian in stability and the supermultiplier a basic kaleckian model is enriched by three simple intuitive assumptions first there is a redistributive system of the wage bill between employed and unemployed workers the latter receiving subsistence income second only individuals with an income above the subsistence level build savings the combination of these two assumptions gives rise to an autonomous consumption component whose rate of growth depends on population growth consequently the rate of capital accumulation spontaneously converges towards the rate of population growth the supermultiplier effect a dynamic that offers a solution to one of the two harrodian instability problems the third assumption corresponds to entrepreneurs attempts to adjust investments to restore the normal rate of capacity utilisation although this assumption usually generates knife edge instability we show here that the stabilising properties of the supermultiplier provided that the accelerator effect is not overly strong help overcome this instability and realise the normal rate of capacity utilisation therefore the model may offer a simple simultaneous solution to the two harrodian instability problems

on the long run outcome of the lewis nurkse international growth process abstract this essay formalizes the model of international growth advanced by w arthur lewis in his 1979 nobel prize address and by ragnar nurkse in the 1950 s both of them employed the model to support their respective cases for pursuit of a balanced growth strategy by the ldc s the purpose of the formalization undertaken here is to examine the theoretical consequences for the secular ratio of ldc to mdc incomes as the lewis nurkse growth process unfolds the paper explores whether or not growth in lewis nurkse fashion must mean persistent poverty for the ldc s in addition the formalization provides an explicit characterization of economic dependence

heterodox theories of economic growth and income distribution a partial survey heterodox theories of economic growth and income distribution are surveyed focusing on major theories and recent contributions first a general framework for examining growth and distribution is discussed in terms of which classical marxian and post keynesian kaleckian and other theories are presented since this framework examines how variables are determined in equilibrium second dynamics behind equilibria are examined focusing on goods market and labor market changes third the framework is extended in a variety of ways to examine additional models addressing productivity growth and technical change money and inflation finance and debt additional distributional considerations multisector issues open economy questions and the environment it is concluded that the literature on heterodox theories of growth and distribution is vibrant large and growing and addresses many issues that are ignored or neglected in orthodox theories including power unemployment and aggregate demand

a keynes goodwin model of the business cycle abstract the paper puts forward a dynamic is lm model in four state variables representing real balances inflation income distribution and a so called state of confidence local in stability is characterized by high low interest elasticities of money demand also a hopf bifurcation can be shown to exist freezing inflation and distribution makes a mathematical analysis of the main stability mechanisms in the outer regions possible the global dynamics of the full system is studied by means of numerical simulations it gives rise to unique and stable limit cycles lastly a sensitivity analysis inquires into the impact of parameter changes on the main cycle features

a keynesian model of north south trade abstract this paper considers a two country two good model of international trade where in each country employment and output are constrained by effective demand it is shown that the country identified as the south exporting consumption goods and importing investment goods in trade equilibrium experiences an unambiguous fall in consumption and employment as trade opens up the other country identified as the north experiences an unambiguous rise in consumption and employment

stagnation income distribution and monopoly power the deceleration in the rate of industrial growth in the indian economy since the middlesixties initially interpreted by some as a temporary downward deviation from trend hasnow come to be generally accepted as reflecting long run tendencies towards stagnation several explanations for these tendencies have been offered bhagwati and desai 1970 and bhagwati and srinivasan 1975 have focused on inefficiencies and the misallocationof resources arising from industrial policies pursued by the government others chakravarty 1974 raj 1976 and vaidyanathan 1974 among them have emphasisedthe sluggishness of agricultural growth which is alleged to have retarded industrial growthby limiting markets and the supply of wage goods and raw materials a third view reflectedin srinivasan and narayana 1977 for example has put the blame on a slackening of invest ment demand due to lower public investment but does not explain why public investmentfell or why its fall restrained industrial growth finally there is the explanation put forthin bagchi 1970 1975 1982 in nayyar 1978 and in parts of mitra 1977 that inequali ties in income distribution have resulted in a limited demand for industrial goods reducedincentives for investment and therefore reduced growth this view seems to suggest apositive relation between growth and income equality which is opposed to the generallyaccepted idea derived from cambridge growth models that higher growth requires greaterinequality the purpose of this paper is to examine the last explanation by considering the inter action between growth and income distribution in an underdeveloped economy with thehelp of a simple macroeconomic model the model is a stylisation of the indian economy so that we will be able to use the model to assess the argument that a deceleration in therate of growth of the indian industrial economy could have been caused by an unequaldistribution of income the argument will not be made that this income distributional con straint is the binding constraint on industrial growth the model will merely examine theinternal consistency of the argument that a bad income distribution could explain stagnation in the sense of reduced growth and show that in the indian context as in other similarcontexts this argument can be put forward in explaining stagnation our argument is first presented with a highly simplified schematisation of the indianeconomy which we shall call the basic model the economy modelled produces only one

brazil s tropical plan this paper highlights the institutional features of the inflation process and contrasts two stabilization efforts in 1964 66 and in 1986 the inflation process in brazil is highly institutional it does not resemble hyperinflations where pricing and wage setting are geared to the exchange rate by the hour making it possible to stop inflation by simply containing money creation and fixing the exchange rate the two stabilization programs demonstrate that an incomes policy is an essential ingredient to non recessionary stabilization but they also show that demand restraint is inevitable if disinflation is to be viable the 1964 program was gradualist and two handed relying on the supply side on wage repression the 1986 plan was a heterodox shock treatment centered around an uncompromising price freeze and paying insufficient attention to the need for fiscal restraint this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

oil price effects in theory and practice abstract the present paper contains an investigation of the international repercussions of oil price effects the analysis develops a theoretical model to study the effects of oil price changes on real income prices and international trade in a three region model dcs opec ldcs the comparative statics analysis indicates that oil price effects cannot be determined unambiguously unless information about structural parameters and policy reactions is also provided to estimate the quantitative effects of oil price changes the analysis relies on dynamic simulations of an econometrically estimated version of the theoretical model such a model is subject to a sensitivity analysis providing quantitative information about the international transmission of oil price effects

income distribution and growth in east asia it is widely believed that the east asian economies performed exceptionally well not only in generating growth but also in keeping inequality low this study tries to answer the questions raised by the claims of exceptionality of income distribution in east asia central findings are that only japan korea and taiwan have legitimate claims to low inequality that the east asian economies distinguished themselves by their ability to translate high profit shares into high savings and investment rates and that low inequality and high profit shares coexisted primarily due to the unusually even distribution of wealth

growth and income distribution with the dynamics of power in labour and goods markets the interaction between economic growth and income distribution is examined using kaleckian post keynesian models in which there are lags in investment and in which the dynamics of income distribution between wages and profits depends on changes in power relations in both the labour market and goods market by examining these two influences on distributional dynamics simultaneously the relative strength of which can change over the growth process it is shown that the growth distributional dynamics can involve non linearities multiple equilibria and instability the implications of policy induced changes including those in macroeconomic policy and labour market and antitrust policies on aggregate demand and distribution are examined for both wage led and profit led growth regimes copyright oxford university press

growth distribution and inflation a centennial synthesis microeconomics at harvard a little more than a decade ago having become disenchanted with neoclassical economics i suggested to my students that the very neoclassical course i had just taught provided one way of characterising the workings of a capitalist economy but hardly the only way after a year of utility maximisation partial and general equili brium pareto optimality and the associated agonies of lagrangians hessians jacobians and fixed point theorems my students were able to contain their enthusiasm for this news they had expected not one way of looking at the world but at the very least a magical key to knowledge and wisdom it is probably accurate to say that my message was not received at all i shall always remember the incomprehension etched on their faces the next year the last i was to teach theory in that incarnation i decided to present at least a sketch of an alternative to the neoclassical orthodoxy i soon discovered there were at least two foundations on which to build one going back to marx who died one hundred years ago the other deriving from keynes whose birth centenary we celebrate this year these two approaches it was clear were as different from each other as from the neoclassical approach the analysis of neo keynesian neo marxian and neoclassical theories has been a major focus of my research ever since and provides the framework for these lectures 1

anchors away the cost and benefits of brazil s devaluation abstract this paper analyzes the impact of brazil s devaluation in 1999 this event represents an abandonment of the exchange rate anchor which had been used as a stabilization plan since the introduction of the real plan in 1994 the reasons behind the abandonment of the exchange rate anchor are determined as well as the explanation for its benign impact

gender inequality and economic growth a cross country analysis abstract this paper investigates empirically the determinants of economic growth for a set of semi industrialized export oriented economies in which women provide the bulk of labor in the export sector the primary hypothesis tested is that gender inequality which contributes to women s relatively lower wages was a stimulus to growth via the effect on exports during 1975 95 empirical analysis shows that gdp growth is positively related to gender wage inequality in contrast to recent work which suggests that income inequality slows growth evidence also indicates that part of the impact of gender wage inequality on growth is transmitted through its positive effect on investment as a share of gdp

inflation deflation expectations and economic stability in a kaleckian system abstract in this paper we analyze the impact of inflation deflation expectations and the effect of the monetary authority s inflation targeting policy in a kaleckian system on the basis of macro foundation approaches for this purpose we build a dynamical system composed of four variables the rate of utilization the wage share the nominal rate of interest and the expected rate of inflation and examine the properties especially stability of this dynamical system we then find that the existence of adaptive inflation deflation expectations always destabilizes our kaleckian system irrespective of the revision speed of expectations while that the monetary authority s intensive inflation targeting policy can make the system stable but the effect of this policy depends heavily upon the public credibility of it we also perform numerical simulations to check that our analysis is valid

the euro as an international currency explaining puzzling first evidence from the foreign exchange markets this paper presents evidence that the bid ask spreads in euro rates increased relative to the corresponding bid ask spreads in the german mark dm prior to the creation of the currency union this comes with a decrease in transaction volume in the euro rates relative to the previous dm rates the starkest example is the dm euro yen rate in which the spread has risen by almost two thirds while the volume decreased by more than one third this outcome is surprising because the common currency concentrated market liquidity in fewer external euro rates and higher volume tends to be associated with lower spreads we propose a microstructure explanation based on a change in the information environment of the fx market the elimination of many cross currency pairs increased the market transparency for order flow imbalances in the dealership market it is argued that higher market transparency adversely affects the inventory risk sharing efficiency of the dealership market and induces the observed euro spread increase and transaction volume shortfall 2002 elsevier science ltd all rights reserved jel classification f31 g14 g15 d8

seasonal fluctuations and the demand for money the reaction of money holders to the systematic seasonal changes in the level of transactions represents an interesting experiment for learning about the money demand function an analysis of the seasonal fluctuations of the real quantity of money and several measures of transactions in the united states germany the united kingdom and canada reveals the following first consumption expenditures in semidurables nondurables and services appears to be a good proxy for transactions in a money demand function and superior to gross domestic product or consumption expenditures second the transactions elasticity of the demand for money is substantially lower than one

growth and trade with asymmetric returns to scale a model for nicholas kaldor manufacturing activities are subject of increasing returns to scale both of a static and a dynamic kind and under these conditions the presumption derived from ricardo s doctrine of comparative costs the presumption that free trade secures the best allocation of resources to each and every participant and that there must be net gain from trade all round no longer holds for under these conditions it can be demonstrated that free trade may lead to stunted growth or even impoverishment of some regions or countries to the greater benefit of others

gstp tariff reduction and its effects on south south trade in manufactures using a gravity model with import tariffs on manufactures as an explanatory variable both at the import and at the export side the impact of tariffs on trade in manufactures is analyzed for a sample of 39 less developed country ldc importers the consequences of an agreement on a global system of trade preferences gstp for manufactures are estimated by lowering these tariffs for intra ldc trade by 20 and 50 alternatively the short term effects are found to be relatively modest and the long term effects considerably larger trade diversion from developed country dc to ldc suppliers has only limited impact

distribution aggregate demand and unemployment in oecd countries the primary aim of this paper is to investigate the role of income distribution in the determination of unemployment to this end the author develops a post keynesian model that shows that unemployment is effectively determined by income distribution aggregate demand and the inadequacy of capital equipment the deriv ed unemployment equation is applied to ten large industrial countries o ver the period 1976 89 the empirical findings provide strong support fo r the hypothesis that shifts in income distribution and inadequacy of capital equipment are major sources of unemployment copyright 1993 by royal economic society

changing beliefs and systematic rational forecast errors with evidence from foreign exchange this paper addresses a new interpretation to the appearance in the early 1980s of systematic errors in forecasting the dollar exchange rate following a change in the process of a fundamental variable market participants revise their beliefs about the process using bayes rule since the market does not immediately recognize the change forecast errors are on average wrong during a period when the market is rationally learning for conservative parameter values the learning behavior of the dollar exchange rate in the early 1980s appears consistent with about half of the dollar s underprediction implied by the forward market copyright 1989 by american economic association

a supermultiplier stock flow consistent model the return of the paradoxes of thrift and costs in the long run supermultiplier models have been recently brought to the post keynesian debate yet these models still rely on quite simple economic assumptions being mostly ow models which omit the nancial determinants of autonomous expenditures since the output growth rate converges in the long run to the exogenously given growth rate of non capacity creating autonomous expenditure and the utilization rate moves towards the normal utilization rate the paradoxes of thrift and costs remain valid only as level e ects average growth rates this paper investigates whether the core conclusions of supermultiplier models hold in a more complex economic framework described by means of a supermultiplier sfc model in which private business investment is assumed to be completely induced by income while the autonomous expenditure component in this case consumption out of wealth becomes endogenous the results of the numerical simulation experiments suggest that the paradox of thrift can remain valid in terms of growth e ects and that a lower pro t share can also be associated to a higher accumulation rate though with a lower pro t rate

functional income distribution and aggregate demand in the euro area an increase in the wage share has contradictory effects on the subaggregates of aggregate demand private consumption expenditures ought to increase because wage incomes typically are associated with higher consumption propensities than capital incomes investment expenditures ought to be negatively affected because investment will positively depend on profits net exports will be negatively affected because an increase in the wage share corresponds to an increase in unit labour costs and thus a loss in competitiveness therefore theoretically aggregate demand can be either wage led or profit led depending on how these effects add up the results will crucially depend on how open the economy is internationally the paper estimates a post kaleckian macro model incorporating these effects for the euro area and finds that the euro area is presently in a wage led demand regime implications for wage policies are discussed

general equilibrium macroeconomic models of unemployment can they explain the unemployment path in the oecd several theories which seek to explain the high and apparently persistent unemployment in the oecd countries over the past two decades have arisen within the framework of imperfections in the goods and labour markets probably the most prominent theories within this class of models are the general equilibrium models of phelps 1994 layard and nickell 1986 and layard et al 1991 labelled structuralist theories of unemployment by phelps 1994 common to the structuralist theories is that the low frequency movements in unemployment or the nairu are determined by structural variables such as unemployment benefits taxes real interest rates etc however the high frequency movements in unemployment are determined by wage and price surprises and in the layard and nickell 1986 model also by cyclical mark ups employment is entirely determined by the firms willingness to supply and the firms are never sales constrained by contrast the general equilibrium model of sarantis 1993 which is in post keynesian spirit suggests that unemployment on all frequencies is mainly an outcome of demand side factors in this model imperfections in the goods and labour markets are less important determinants of unemployment in this paper i estimate the extent to which the models of phelps 1994 layard and nickell 1986 henceforth l n and sarantis 1993 are able to explain the unemployment path of the oecd countries using annual data over the period 1960 to 1993 the theoretical set up of the models is presented in section 1 and the empirical estimates are set out in section 2

the labour share and the dynamics of output abstractwe derive a new keynesian is curve that is augmented to capture the direct effects of the labour share on output our derivation shows that the direct effect of the labour share on output is ambiguous furthermore theory suggests that the expected labour share negatively affects output empirically we find that the labour share plays a significant role in driving output dynamics however contrary to theoretical expectation the expected labour share positively affects output in some cases a finding we call the labour share puzzle we also find that over time there seems to be a general shift in aggregate demand dynamics towards being profit led i e rising labour share decreases output we conclude that policymakers should not ignore the labour share in their decisions

growth distribution trade offs the role of capacity utilisation previous empirical studies of the impact of economic growth on income distribution have consistently found statistically insignificant impact this paper empirically reexamines this impact for a cross section of thirty nine advanced and developing countries focusing on a new critical factor i e the presence or absence of economic slack with this factor included growth becomes significantly unequalizing in a capital taut economy while the presence of slack capacity plays a significantly equalizing role this suggests that the insignificant finding of previous studies stems from an averaging out of these two opposite impacts when this factor is omitted copyright 1988 by oxford university press

balancing the budget with implicit domestic default the case of brazil in the 1980s abstract this paper examines the breakdown of the brazilian government s budget balance mechanism which began in the mid 1980s the brazilian government became unable to balance its budget through tax increases or expenditure decreases evidence presented in this paper suggests that the government began to rely on unannounced reductions in the indexed inflation compensation on its debt these reductions can be thought of as an implicit default on domestically held debt while the temporary asset freeze of the march 1990 collor plan was a highly publicized instance of such a default it was not the first

learning innovation increasing returns and resource creation luigi pasinetti s original sin of and call for a post classical economics we draw on the seminal contribution to economics by luigi pasinetti respond to his call to reverse what he saw as the original sin of classical economists exacerbated by neoclassical economists namely the assumption of non increasing returns to scale and move towards building a post classical economics we outline the contours of a post classical framework that draws on key themes and contributions from pasinetti on learning technical progress increasing returns resource creation trade and catching up and contributions from within and without economics that are in line with lend support to and challenge it we advocate the pressing need and opportune timing for a concerted effort to revitalise ideas from the once vibrant cambridge school of economics and help develop a fresh more pluralist and inclusive post classical economics that cuts across divides and opens up opportunities for a less dismal science

a stagnationist model of economic growth in an economy subject to persistent excess capacity demand related factors will play a key role in determining patterns of secular change this thesis has a long history in econ omics sometimes in the underworld and occasionally at the height of fashion as recounted by rowthorn 1982 recent manifestations in the first world are the theories of monopoly capitalism of baran and sweezy 1966 and steindl 1952 who in turn follow kalecki 1971 hobson 1902 luxemburg 1951 and the marx of realisation crises and reproduction schemes in volume ii of capital other radicals such as boddy and crotty 1975 add a profit squeeze explanation of the cycle which underlays the dynamics of the growth model specified here in developing countries difficulties in both realisation and sectoral proportions are emphasised as obstacles to growth witness lustig s 1980 review of latin american structuralist theory and dutt s 1984 model which formalises an ongoing controversy in india about how income redistribution might affect prospects for industrialisation all these authors are stagnationist in assuming that both the growth rate and the level of capacity utilisation can be different under different conditions of income distribution and or macroeconomic policy their preferred policies will presumably lead to greater equality increase utilisation or step up growth they typically ask two analytical ques tions how does output respond in the short run to shifts in the income distribution how do output adjustments feed back into distributional dynamics especially under conditions when price and wage inflation rates may be influenced by employment levels productivity changes and conflicting income claims in what follows we set out a simple model to address these questions and explore the implications for macroeconomic policy of the answers that arise since the approach is not familiar to economists with a standard training a verbal description of the growth model is given first those who wish to jump directly into a formal presentation can proceed to section 1 output x is assumed to meet demand in an instantaneous short run we measure activity as the ratio of firms net cash inflow to the value of capital stock i e the rate of profit r during the short run the price level p is fixed by a mark up rule p 1 x wb where r is the mark up rate w the money wage and b the labor output ratio with this rule the share of profits or mark up income in the value of output is r l t let u stand for the output capital ratio or capacity utilization xik by simple identity

distribution and growth reconsidered empirical results for six oecd countries we analyse the relationship between functional income distribution and economic growth in austria france germany the netherlands the uk and the usa from 1960 until 2005 the analysis is based on a demand driven distribution and growth model for an open economy inspired by bhaduri and marglin which allows for either profit or wage led growth we find that growth in france germany the uk and the usa has been wage led whereas austria and the netherlands have been profit led in the case of austria a domestically wage led economy changes to profit led when including the effect of distribution on external trade the netherlands however are already profit led without external trade our results so far only partially confirm bhaduri and marglin s theoretical conclusion that wage led growth becomes less feasible when the effects of distribution on foreign trade are taken into account

monetary policy and macroeconomic stability under alternative demand regimes in this paper we analyse the interaction of macroeconomic activity and the dynamics of real wages from a theoretical perspective by means of a system dynamic approach we investigate the economic viability of wage and profit led demand regimes by analysing not only the effect of real wages on output but also the feedback mechanisms of macroeconomic activity on the real wages furthermore in this context we focus on the role of monetary policy as a macroeconomic stabilisation mechanism in the two mentioned demand regimes

a global model of recovery and rebalancing this paper presents an investigation of global recovery from the great recession and the rebalancing of global external imbalances using a global model of 16 countries and composite regions the model applies to the short term and only to the real side key features are demand driven output determination pro cyclical aggregate labour productivity imperfect competition in product markets and simple bargaining in non clearing labour markets which together determine the functional distribution of income trade is modelled in a bilateral import matrix particular attention is paid to international adjustment simulation results suggest that early exit from fiscal support threatens a fragile recovery further domestic demand expansion and revaluation in real terms in surplus countries are necessary for rebalancing and a variety of measures can be employed to achieve these goals copyright oxford university press

growth distribution and sectoral heterogeneity reading the kaleckians in latin america abstract the aim of this paper is to explore a parallelism between two episodes in the history of economic thought in order to suggest that the interaction between them can contribute to the research on kaleckian growth and distribution models first a brief summary of the theoretical development from steindl s stagnationist claims to the debate about demand regimes is offered then a more detailed account is provided of the latin american debate that began with furtado s stagnationist claims and resulted in the formulation of models of social articulation and disarticulation finally an analytical classification of kaleckian and latin american growth and distribution models is provided indicating the way in which sectoral heterogeneity and demand composition can act as a plausible link between growth and distribution

personal income inequality and aggregate demand this paper presents a theoretical and empirical investigation of how changes in the size distribution of income can aect aggregate demand and the demand regime of an economy after presenting empirical evidence for the us economy that the propensity to save increases signicantly from the bottom to the top quintile of wage earners we demonstrate that more equal distributions always lead to higher output in the traditional neo kaleckian macroeconomic model we also present conditions under which a reduction of income inequality among workers turns demand more wage led this view is supported by the results of an econometric study for the united states 1967 2010 which show that the rise after 1980 in income inequality has made the us economy more prot led

foreign exchange constraints and growth possibilities in the ldcs abstract we analyse the influence of foreign exchange constraints on output growth in the ldcs by studying the effect that these constraints have on the speed of adjustment of both investment and import activities we model the speed of adjustment of investment as a function of available foreign exchange resources and allow for imperfect substitutability between the domestic and the foreign capital stocks

bargaining power effective demand and technical progress a kaleckian model of growth following the kaleckian tradition this paper presents a demand led growth model in which the distribution of income is fully endogenised this is done by introducing claims on income by workers and firms the bargaining power of these two groups affects through distribution the patterns of accumulation and inflation in turn the bargaining power of workers is affected by the rate of change of employment the paper discusses the model s static and dynamic implications including the effects of exogenous and induced technical progress the model confirms all the typical kaleckian results including the fact that increases in real wages may lead to accelerating accumulation as well as inflation it also produces a new result it is possible that an increase in the rate of change of labour productivity may not lead to an increase in the rate of change of employment

monopoly power and uneven development baran revisited baran examined the implications of the rise in monopoly power in advanced economies for the underdevelopment in poor countries and the process of uneven development on a world scale this article examines his work critically and then presents a north south model which defines uneven development in a precise manner and analyses the mechanism by which the rise in monopoly power leads to such uneven development it is shown that the process can work even without reference to imperialism which is a central but controversial element in baran s analysis

macro policy in the tropics how sensible people stand abstract a model for macro policy analysis is set out incorporating an inflation theory based on distributional conflict output and current account adjustment mechanisms and the money market classic structuralist results about contractionary devaluation and stagflationary monetary restriction are derived alternative closures of the model are considered monetarism and external strangulation or foreign exchange bonanzas and it is extended to deal with interest rate reform short term stabilization issues are analyzed monetary and fiscal policy import quotas and export subsidies as opposed to devaluation financial market complications food subsidies and public sector pricing and orthodox and heterodox anti inflationary programs finally medium term processes of inflation distribution and growth are described an example of an irreversible contractionary shock which leads the economy from a distributionally favorable to an unfavorable steady state is presented

southern primary exports technological change and uneven development a two region model is developed to examine the implications of trade and capital flows between the north which produces a good which is used for consumption and investment purposes in both the north and the south and the south which produces a good which is used as a consumption good in the south and as a primary intermediate good in the north the main purpose of the paper is to analyse the implications of technological change in the north which reduces its dependence on the imported intermediate good special attention is focused on north south terms of trade movements and on the possibility of international uneven development

the effects of income distribution and fiscal policy on aggregate demand investment and the budget balance the case of europe this paper develops a multi country post kaleckian model that incorporates the role of the government one key novelty of the model is that it integrates cross country effects of both changes in income distribution and fiscal policy the model is used to estimate econometrically the effects of income distribution and fiscal policy on the components of aggregate demand and the budget balance in eu15 countries the results show that a simultaneous increase in the wage share in all eu15 countries would increase demand and the primary budget balance in all countries a simultaneous increase in government spending turns out to boost economic activity in all the eu15 countries indicating the positive economic effects of expansionary fiscal policy moreover a progressive tax policy that would be implemented simultaneously at the eu level would lead to an increase in output in all countries

bank profitability leverage and financial instability a minsky harrod model this paper develops a stock flow consistent macroeconomic model where bank profitability and bank leverage play a crucial role in the determination of firms liability structure the model assumes that banks credit supply depends on bank profitability as well as firms profit interest ratio our analysis suggests that a strong expansionary effect of bank profitability on credit supply tends to destabilise the economy leading to cycles driven by the interactions between firms and banks financial behaviour the formal framework is used to discuss hyman minsky s proposal in his stabilizing an unstable economy for the control over the permissible leverage ratios and payout ratios of banks copyright oxford university press

oil price capital mobility and oil importers a general equilibrium macro analysis abstract a three region three commodity general equilibrium model is constructed to explore the impact of opec s pricing policies on major macro variables of importer economies the aim of this paper is to explore general macro characteristics of the trading economies to aid understanding of the world economy response after opec i and opec ii in terms of the evolution of north south terms of trade rates of profit and output levels we support the view of a world economy in a three regions setting north south opec the analysis increases our understanding of why regions respond differently to the same external shock and how from different regimes of capital mobility we should derive alternative policy implications with the current rise in oil prices the topic promises to be relevant for some time although the direction of the shocks has been reserved

the nics global accumulation and uneven development implications of a simple three region model abstract this paper develops a simple three region model of the global economy along structuralist lines with the north newly industrializing countries nics and the rest of the south the north produces an investment cum consumption good while the nics and the south produce two different consumption goods the north grows with excess capacity along kalecki keynes lines the nics are modeled along marxian lines with a given rate of exploitation and the south along lewis lines with a given subsistence wage the short run and long run dynamics and equilibrium properties of the model are analyzed it is shown that parametric shifts which result in a relative growth of nic capital as compared to the north and the south in the long run usually result in uneven north south development

unemployment and the real wage the economic basis for contesting political ideologies using the keynesian theory of effective demand this paper demonstrates how particular models such as that of cooperative capitalism enunciated by the left keynesian social democrats the marxian model of profit squeeze emphasizing distributive conflict and even the conservative model relying on supply side stimulus fit in as particular variants of a more general theoretical scheme through a reconstruction of the familiar is schedule the argument is weaved around the theme of the relations between unemployment and real wage in the context of both a closed and an open economy to explain the common macroeconomic basis of contesting ideologies copyright 1990 by oxford university press

sectoral balance in development a survey abstract this paper surveys the literature on sectoral balance to see how sectoral imbalances can retard economic development it examines definitions of sectors and balance provides background facts theories and planning tools reviews the debate on balanced growth and surveys two sector models of agriculture industry consumption investment and luxury basics interaction the open economy and the role of service nonmarket and unproductive sectors it argues that the examination of important development issues requires multisectoral analysis incorporating the insights of several of these models and that alternative models with different structural characteristics deserve attention

some instability puzzles in kaleckian models of growth and distribution a critical survey we tackle the issue of the possible instability of the kaleckian distribution and growth model distinguishing between keynesian and harrodian instability we review various mechanisms that have been proposed by critics of the kaleckian model to tame harrodian instability while bringing back the rate of utilisation to its normal rate we find that the mechanisms that have been suggested are far from convincing therefore we conclude that it may be premature for the critics of the kaleckian model to dismiss the endogeneity of the rate of capacity utilisation in long run growth equilibrium copyright the author 2010 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

the dynamics of leverage in a demand driven model with heterogeneous firms abstract this paper introduces heterogeneous microeconomic behavior into a demand driven macroeconomic model in order to study the joint dynamics of leverage and capital accumulation by identifying the links between firm level variables and aggregate quantities the paper contributes toward a reformulation of the minskyan formal analysis that explicitly considers the role of microeconomic factors in generating macroeconomic instability the aggregation of heterogeneous agents is not only performed numerically as in traditional agent based models but also by means of an innovative analytical methodology originally developed in statistical mechanics and recently imported into macroeconomics the distinctive feature is in that the joint analysis of the numerical and analytical solutions of the model sheds light on the effects of financial fragility at the firm level on the dynamics of the macroeconomy in particular the analysis of steady state and stability properties of the system provide additional insights on the role of behavioral and size heterogeneity of firms for the stocks of aggregate debt and capital

technology demand and distribution a cumulative growth model with an application to the dutch productivity growth slowdown this paper argues that the case for real wage growth restraint and the consequent restoration of profitability which the mainstream consensus regards as a necessary condition for sustained output and productivity growth is based on weak foundations because it neglects the negative impact of wage moderation on productivity growth using a general keynesian growth model which integrates a wage led or profit led demand regime and a productivity regime incorporating the productivity growth enhancing effects of higher demand and higher real wages the conditions are identified under which real wage restraint fails to raise output and productivity growth the model is applied empirically to the netherlands 1960 2000 copyright 2006 oxford university press

long waves and short cycles in a model of endogenous financial fragility this paper presents a stock flow consistent macroeconomic model in which financial fragility in firm and household sectors evolves endogenously through the interaction between real and financial sectors changes in firms and households financial practices produce long waves the hopf bifurcation theorem is applied to clarify the conditions for the existence of limit cycles and simulations illustrate stable limit cycles the long waves are characterized by periodic economic crises following long expansions short cycles generated by the interaction between effective demand and labor market dynamics fluctuate around the long waves

market microstructure effects of government intervention in the foreign exchange market as asymmetric information model of the bid ask spread is developed for a foreign exchange market subject to occasional government interventions traditional tests of the unbiasedness of the forward rate as a predictor of the future spot rate are shown to be inconsistent when the rates are measured as the average of their respective bid and ask quotes larger bid ask spreads on fridays are documented reliable evidence of asymmetric bid ask spreads for all days of the week albeit more pronounced on fridays are presented the null hypothesis that the forward rate is an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate continues to be rejected the regression slope coefficients increase toward unity however indicating a less variable risk premium

terms of trade shocks and economic performance 1870 1940 prebisch and singer revisited debate over trends in the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactures their causes and their impact has dominated the literature for more than a century classical economists claimed that the terms of trade of primary commodities should improve since land and natural resources are always in inelastic supply following the great depression a new view emerged what came to be known as the prebisch singer thesis was instead that the terms of trade for primary products had deteriorated up to the 1950s the subsequent literature has almost exclusively and obsessively asked whether a deterioration has actually taken place over the 130 years following 1870 nowhere in this literature has the impact of these terms of trade shocks on long run growth been assessed although it is certainly full of lively speculation and debate this paper fills part of this empirical gap by constructing a country specific panel data base 1870 1940 by documenting terms of trade trends by country and region and finally by estimating the impact of the price shocks on long run economic performance we find the impact to have been asymmetric between center and periphery this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

canaries and vultures a quantitative history of monetary mismanagement in brazil during the last two decades of the twentieth century brazil went through a sequence of failed stabilization plans that tried to cope with an enduring hyperinflation this paper uses a money demand model to evaluate monetary policies during those episodes consistency between money supply and expected conditional money demand growth rates is considered for each plan it is shown that unsuccessful programs were marked by excessive liquidity the results not only suggest that monetary mismanagement led to the failure of the plans but also that the excessive liquidity could have been predicted