design and analysis of simulated consumer choice or allocation experiments an approach based on aggregate data the authors integrate concepts in conjoint analysis and discrete choice theory in econometrics to develop a new approach to the design and analysis of controlled consumer choice or resource allocat

risk aversion and willingness to pay for energy efficient systems in rental apartments abstract this paper uses a random utility model to estimate consumers valuation of energy efficient insulation and ventilation systems in rental apartments given consumers limited experience in residential buildings and the perceived uncertainty about their comfort benefits and resulting energy savings these relatively new technologies might be undervalued by risk averse consumers using the concept of certainty equivalence this paper proposes a model to assess the consumers risk aversion for adopting energy efficient systems these systems are treated as risky assets while conventional commodities are assumed to be risk free the curvature of the utility function is interpreted as a measure of aversion to perceived risks as opposed to explicit risks measured by observed variances the proposed formulation is applicable in stated preference data with qualitative variables the model is applied to data from a choice experiment conducted among 264 apartment tenants in switzerland the estimated curvatures reject the risk neutrality hypothesis the range of the estimated risk premiums suggests that risk considerations remain a central issue in dealing with energy efficiency in residential buildings the analysis also indicates that assuming same risk attitudes toward new and conventional systems could bias the estimates of the willingness to pay especially when the system is comprised of several components

conformity and the demand for environmental goods the existing literature on eco labeling and green consumerism has been framed within a classical market context where price and quality are the drivers of consumer choice however it seems possible that consumers are also concerned about the choices made by other consumers in fact it is unclear that people s consumption decisions are made independently of social context for instance under the desire to conform to certain social norms or in the presence of status concerns some individuals may be willing to pay a higher price premium for green products the more widespread green consumerism is in society we test this hypothesis using a choice experiment where the respondents were asked to choose among coffee products varying with respect to their share of ecological beans share of fair trade beans and price three treatments were used differing only in the information given about the choices made by other consumers we find different responses to the treatments across individuals and we can only confirm our hypothesis of conformity for women although men appear to have stronger preferences for ecological coffee than women have

relative prices consumer preferences and the demand for food shocks to world commodity prices and the depreciation of sterling led to a large increase in the price of food in the uk it also resulted in large changes in the relative prices of different foods we document these changes and consider how they affected the composition of households shopping baskets we isolate the impact of changes in relative food prices from variation in preferences using data on purchasing decisions made by a representative panel of british households we show that changes in relative food prices led to a worsening in the nutritional quality of households shopping baskets though this was partially mitigated by offsetting changes in preferences

liquidity effects and the monetary transmission mechanism several recent papers provide strong empirical support for the view that an expansionary monetary policy disturbance generates a persistent decrease in interest rates and a persistent increase in output and employment existing quantitative general equilibrium models which allow for capital accumulation are inconsistent with this view there does exist a recently developed class of general equilibrium models which can rationalize the contemporaneous response of interest rates output and employment to a money supply shock however a key shortcoming of these models is that they cannot rationalize persistent liquidity effects this paper discusses the basic frictions and mechanisms underlying this new class of models and investigates one avenue for generating persistence we argue that once a simplified version of the model in christiano and eichenbaum 1991 is modified to allow for extremely small costs of adjusting sectoral flow of funds positive money shocks generate long lasting quantitatively significant liquidity effects as well as persistent increases in aggregate economic activity

do pharmacists buy bayer informed shoppers and the brand premium we estimate the effect of information and expertise on consumers willingness to pay for national brands in physically homogeneous product categories in a detailed case study of headache remedies we find that more informed or expert consumers are less likely to pay extra to buy national brands with pharmacists choosing them over store brands only 9 percent of the time compared to 26 percent of the time for the average consumer in a similar case study of pantry staples such as salt and sugar we show that chefs devote 12 percentage points less of their purchases to national brands than demographically similar nonchefs we extend our analysis to cover 50 retail health categories and 241 food and drink categories the results suggest that misinformation and related consumer mistakes explain a sizable share of the brand premium for health products and a much smaller share for most food and drink products we tie our estimates together using a stylized model of demand and pricing

willingness to pay for voluntary climate action and its determinants field experimental evidence the determinants of individual voluntary climate action vca in combating climate change and its potential scale are frequently debated in public but largely underresearched we provide estimates of the willingness to individually reduce eu greenhouse gas emissions by one ton using the european union emissions trading scheme estimates are derived from an online field experiment with a large highly heterogenous and internet representative sample of voting aged germans jointly estimating willingness to pay wtp non indifference to vca and prior knowledge we uncover important determinants of preferences for vca such as education the information structure among the population and exogenous environmental conditions

consumer valuation of health attributes for soy based food a choice modeling approach abstract given that soy foods possess health promoting attributes that offer the promise of reducing heart related chronic diseases this article employs choice experiments to estimate marginal willingness to pay wtp for soy attributes including taste contents of soy protein and health claim random parameter logit rpl models were estimated in consideration of potential heterogeneity across individuals in their preferences for soy food standard deviation parameters in the rpl models are highly significant indicating that individuals have widely varying preferences for soy based food products results suggest that while taste is the dominating attribute that drives consumers wtp for soy food products consumers do respond to the information provided in the health claim yet consumers do not seem to be recognizing soy protein as the link to health benefits of soy foods

lessons from the united states s antitrust history abstract the united states s antitrust policy spans more than 100 years for most of its history the united states has had the toughest antitrust laws and enforcement policies of any country in the world a shift to a more permissive attitude with regard to antitrust matters has occurred in recent years however this paper traces the changes in antitrust policy that have occurred and the concurrent shifts in thinking among economists on antitrust questions following this review the paper offers a critical appraisal of both the economic underpinning of the new learnings on antitrust matters and the changes in antitrust policy that have accompanied them it closes with a discussion of the implications of the analysis for european antitrust competition policy

inferred and stated attribute non attendance in food choice experiments we review the current literature on attribute non attendance in stated choice and use data from beef and chicken choice experiments using both inference and the respondents own statements inference is based on panel data analysis by mixed logit models of choice with both discrete and continuous mixtures of coefficients and is conditional on the observed pattern of choice information from respondent statements on non attendance is directly embedded in the specification of the indirect utility function results show no clear winner between the inferential approaches but the inference based on constrained latent class panel models better matches the observed data

is money net wealth this paper develops a simple monetary model a hybrid of the sidrauski and overlapping generation frameworks in which new dynasties of infinitely lived agents continuously enter the economy it is shown that the long run nonsuperneutrality of money in life cycle models is a modality of the violation of the ricardian debt neutrality proposition the very same intergenerational redistribution effects which on the fiscal side are the source of debt nonneutrality are at work on the monetary side to create monetary wealth effects and make money nonsuperneutral in the long run copyright 1991 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

who participates in household scanning panels we compare two widely used household scanning panels maintained by the nielsen company and information resources inc to a random sample of the u s population results indicate that the demographic characteristics of the random sample more closely match the census bureau data than the household scanning panels we also show that after controlling for demographic differences participants in the household scanning panels are slightly more price sensitive than participants in the random sample the two household scanning panels yield similar results in relation to one another which suggests that the household scanning panels may suffer from sample selection and participation biases

consumers willingness to pay for the color of salmon a choice experiment with real economic incentives in most retail markets sellers post the price and consumers choose which products to buy we designed an experimental market with posted prices to investigate consumers willingness to pay for the color of salmon salmon fillets varying in color and price were displayed in twenty choice scenarios in each scenario the participants chose which of two salmon fillets they wanted to buy to induce real economic incentives each participant drew one binding scenario the participants then had to buy the salmon fillet they had chosen in their binding scenario the choice data were analyzed with a mixed logit model

incorporating discontinuous preferences into the analysis of discrete choice experiments data from a discrete choice experiment on improvements of rural landscape attributes are used to investigate the implications of discontinuous preferences on willingness to pay estimates using a multinomial error component logit model we explore differences in scale and unexplained variance between respondents with discontinuous and continuous preferences and condition taste intensities on whether or not each attribute was considered by the respondent during the evaluation of alternatives results suggest that significant improvements in model performance can be achieved when discontinuous preferences are accommodated in the econometric specification and that the magnitude and robustness of the willingness to pay estimates are sensitive to discontinuous preferences

liquidity effects in non ricardian economies it has often been found difficult to generate a liquidity effect i e a negative effect of monetary injections on the nominal interest rate in the traditional ricardian stochastic dynamic model with a single infinitely lived household we show that moving to a non ricardian environment where new agents enter the economy in each period allows to generate such a liquidity effect

are choice experiments incentive compatible a test with quality differentiated beef steaks this study compares hypothetical and nonhypothetical responses to choice experiment questions we test for hypothetical bias in a choice experiment involving beef ribeye steaks with differing quality attributes in general hypothetical responses predicted higher probabilities of purchasing beef steaks than nonhypothetical responses thus hypothetical choices overestimate total willingness to pay for beef steaks however marginal willingness to pay for a change in steak quality is in general not statistically different across hypothetical and actual payment settings

demand effects in stated preference surveys abstract we argue that demand effects in stated preference studies are understudied by demand effects we mean anything in the survey that unintentionally influences respondents beliefs about appropriate behavior which in turn might affect their responses in the survey we implement two methods for measuring and implicitly reducing the influence of demand effects the first approach random selection of good to be valued does not have any effect on respondent behavior the second approach a demand script and a control question with feedback has a sizable and statistically significant effect on respondent behavior in particular estimated marginal willingness to pay for improvements in water quality are substantially around 50 percent lower than a control treatment we attribute this decrease to a reduced demand effect our results suggest that stated preference methods tend to lead to biased willingness to pay estimates due to demand effects but that the bias can be reduced using simple measures

validity of discrete choice experiments evidence for health risk reduction there is growing interest in discrete choice experiment dce as a method to elicit consumers preferences in the health care sector increasingly this method is used to determine willingness to pay wtp for health related goods however its external validity in the health care domain has not been investigated until now this paper examines the external validity of dce concerning the reduction of a health risk convergent validity is examined by comparing the value of a statistical life with other preference elicitation techniques such as revealed preference criterion validity is shown by comparing wtp values derived from stated choices in the experiment with those derived from actual choices made by the same individuals both tests provide strong evidence in favour of external validity of the dce method

an analysis of uk policies for domestic energy reduction using an agent based tool this paper introduces a new agent based model which incorporates the actions of individual homeowners in a long term domestic stock model and details how it was applied in energy policy analysis the results indicate that current policies are likely to fall significantly short of the 80 target and suggest that current subsidy levels need re examining in the model current subsidy levels appear to offer too much support to some technologies which in turn leads to the suppression of other technologies that have a greater energy saving potential the model can be used by policy makers to develop further scenarios to find alternative more effective sets of policy measures the model is currently limited to the owner occupied stock in england although it can be expanded subject to the availability of data

valuing the influence of underlying attitudes and the demand for organic milk in japan subjective perceptions about a product affect consumer choice accordingly acquiring the underlying demand characteristics that consumers find desirable is vital for firms planning future marketing strategies however the extent to which product specific perceptions affect consumer choice is poorly understood new agricultural standards for organic livestock were introduced in japan in november 2005 and are expected to influence the market significantly choice modeling cm is used to explore how consumers evaluate the latent demands and conventional attributes or tangible values of organic milk the results suggest that latent demands along with socioeconomic characteristics and conventional attributes provide strong incentives for consumers to move from the purchase of conventional milk to organic milk the analysis indicates that latent demands reflecting the safeness of organic milk the better taste of organic milk the image of environmental friendliness in the production process and the image of the health and comfort of the cows are important factors that influence consumers purchasing decisions however each specific factor has a corresponding conventional tangible attribute that needs to be targeted in marketing strategy

gender specific starting point bias in choice experiments evidence from an empirical study abstract in this paper we test whether preferences and willingness to pay estimates obtained in a choice experiment study are susceptible to starting point bias as is often the case in dichotomous choice contingent valuation studies on the basis of a multinomial probit model we find that preferences are indeed susceptible to starting point bias in a split sample design our results suggest that varying the price levels displayed in a so called instructional choice set presented prior to the actual preference eliciting choice sets significantly impacts respondents preferences and willingness to pay for protecting danish nature areas from new motorway development in particular our results show that the bias is gender specific only female respondents are significantly affected results further reveal that the impact of the starting point bias decays as respondents evaluate more and more choice sets this supports the discovered preference hypothesis and on the basis of this we suggest a number of ways to potentially mitigate the starting point bias

does one size fit all heterogeneity in the valuation of community forestry programs abstract through the implementation of a choice experiment valuation exercise this study set out to identify the set of community plantation attributes that impact the welfare of potential community forestry program participants we employed a combination of choice models to evaluate the preferences welfare impacts and choice elasticities associated with alternative community forestry programs allowing for different assumptions regarding heterogeneity in line with economic theory increased participation costs reduced the demand for community forestry while increases in expected productivity raised the demand with respect to preferences for the other alternatives considered type of forest area enclosure and type of land upon which the forest was to be situated the results point to significant differences in preferences across the study population suggesting that programs should be tailored to the communities in which the program is to be implemented

stated and revealed preferences for organic and cloned milk combining choice experiment and scanner data the u s food and drug administration s recent announcement that milk from cloned cows is as safe to drink as that from conventionally bred cows prompted interest among farmers food retailers and regulators in the market impacts of the introduction of milk from clones because milk from cloned animals is not currently labeled in the market we utilized a stated preference experiment to determine consumer preferences for the attribute but also sought to determine whether the survey based choices were consistent with people s revealed preferences given by scanner data our analysis indicates that a pooled model combining stated and revealed preference data exhibits overall better out of sample prediction performance than either data set used alone results from the pooled model indicate that consumers are willing to pay large premiums to avoid milk from cloned cows an amount that is over three times that for organic or rbst free milk the results are used to calculate the value of a mandatory labeling program

forest tenure reform in china a choice experiment on farmers property rights preferences decentralization experiments are currently underway in the chinese forestry sector however researchers and policy makers tend to ignore a key question what do forest farmers really want from reform this paper addresses this question using a survey based choice experiment to investigate farmers preferences for various property rights attributes of a forestland contract we found that farmers are highly concerned with the types of rights provided by a contract reducing perceived risks of contract termination and introducing a priority right for the renewal of an existing contract significantly increases farmers marginal willingness to pay for a forest contract

how closely do hypothetical surveys and laboratory experiments predict field behavior we compare the ability of three preference elicitation methods hypothetical choices nonhypothetical choices and nonhypothetical rankings and three discrete choice econometric models the multinomial logit mnl the independent availability logit ial and the random parameter logit rpl to predict actual retail shopping behavior in three different product categories ground beef wheat flour and dishwashing liquid overall we find a high level of external validity our specific results suggest that the nonhypothetical elicitation approaches especially the nonhypothetical ranking method outperformed the hypothetical choice experiment in predicting retail sales we also find that the rpl can have superior predictive performance but that the mnl predicts equally well in some circumstances experiment

permanent budget deficits and inflation abstract the issue of whether permanent primary budget deficits have to be monetized is re examined in a simple monetary model hybrid of the sidrauski and overlapping generations frameworks in which intergenerational effects are generated by the arrival of new infinitely lived cohorts the presence of intergenerational effects enlarges for a given fiscal policy the set of admissible monetary policies and weakens the need to monetize the deficit comparisons between the growth and interest rates are in general insufficient to predict whether increased deficit must be monetized because of the existence of both bond and money seigniorage laffer curves

liquidity loanable funds and real activity abstract this paper develops a general equilibrium model of two traditional explanations of the monetary black box linking money and real activity the liquidity effect and the loanable funds effect these effects are modeled with a monetary production economy in which central bank injections of cash are funnelled into the economy through the credit market since only borrowers have direct access to the newly injected cash monetary injections cause nominal interest rates to fall if firms are borrowers then monetary injections also increase current and future real activity

bayesian conjoint choice designs for measuring willingness to pay in this paper we propose a new criterion for selecting efficient conjoint choice designs when the interest is in quantifying willingness to pay wtp the new criterion which we call the wtp optimality criterion is based on the c optimality criterion which is often used in the optimal experimental design literature we use a simulation study to evaluate the designs generated using the wtp optimality criterion and discuss the design of a real life conjoint experiment from the literature the results show that the new criterion leads to designs that yield more precise estimates of the wtp than bayesian d optimal conjoint choice designs which are increasingly being seen as the state of the art designs for conjoint choice studies and to a substantial reduction in the occurrence of unrealistically high wtp estimates

do hypothetical and actual marginal willingness to pay differ in choice experiments application to the valuation of the environment abstract in this paper we test the validity of choice experiments with donations for environmental projects in particular we test whether or not there are differences in preferences between a hypothetical and an actual choice experiment our experiments indicate no differences in addition internal tests of validity indicate transitive and stable preferences in both experiments although there are some indications of possible learning effects during the experiment

export orientation and domestic merger policy theory and some empirical evidence abstract recent open economy industrial organization literature finds export orientation enhances the weight of post merger international competitive gains favouring lenient domestic merger policy however mergers seldom generate the significant synergies supportive of international competitive gains since a joint economies of production effect suggests domestic mergers tend to generate international competitive losses not gains export orientation favours strict not lenient domestic merger policy we show how non synergistic domestic mergers in the presence of international sales might reduce national welfare and incur stringent merger reviews a panel data set of u s merger policy by manufacturing sector 1990 2001 empirically supports export orientation leading to strict merger policy jel classification l40 f10

using cheap talk as a test of validity in choice experiments abstract in two experiments on the choice of consumer goods the estimated marginal willingness to pay for food is found to be lower in the survey version with cheap talk our test can be seen as a test of hypothetical bias this implies that we cannot reject the hypothesis of a hypothetical bias for marginal wtp in choice experiments

low energy efficiency in rental properties asymmetric information or low willingness to pay abstract asymmetric information may explain low energy efficiency in rented properties energy ratings while a solution to the information problem will only lead to higher efficiency levels if renter s willingness to pay wtp exceeds landlord s investment costs using a sample of renters from one university this paper estimates this wtp using a discrete choice experiment where respondents choose from a hypothetical set of single bedroom apartments that differ according to a number of attributes including the energy rating results show that there is a strong disutility associated with the least efficient properties and that renters will pay significantly more for efficiency improvements at the lower end of the efficiency scale importantly our wtp estimates are calculated in a setting where respondents were informed about the energy rating system prior to choosing and where the rating was shown for every property therefore in order to maximise the impact of energy rating systems policymakers are encouraged to ensure that both these informational characteristics are in place

valuing indigenous cattle breeds in kenya an empirical comparison of stated and revealed preference value estimates abstract in this study we compare revealed and stated preference approaches to value traits of cattle in kenya the premise is that much can be learnt about non market values of indigenous animal genetic resources angr from the use of multi attribute stated preference methods if these compare well with revealed preference results the objective is to investigate the performance of choice experiments ces in maasai cattle trading by conducting an external test of preference consistency we compare value estimates for cattle attributes from ces data with those from hedonic analysis of actual transactions by the same population of traders in the same markets and over the same period if ces perform well they can be used to investigate values of those genetically determined livestock traits currently not prominent in pastoralists populations but desirable candidates for breeding or conservation programmes e g disease resistance the results indicate that ce estimates pass the external test and appear to be adequately precise in estimating values for cattle traits that are relevant in market transactions for maasai traders accounting for taste and variance heterogeneity does not change this conclusion ces may therefore be a promising tool for valuing phenotypic traits expressed by indigenous angr

an incentive compatible conjoint ranking mechanism a simple method for making ranking based conjoint analysis incentive compatible is proposed the incentive compatible mechanism involves people purchasing a product profile with a probability proportional to its assigned rank in an empirical application related to consumer preferences for beef attributes we find that the forecasted market share for a new pasture raised steak obtained using incentive compatible rankings was significantly greater than that implied from traditional hypothetical conjoint rankings people s rankings of ground beef products were not affected by the mechanism or by information about pasture raised beef copyright 2008 oxford university press

structural analysis of manufacturer pricing in the presence of a strategic retailer consumer goods manufacturers usually sell their brands to consumers through common independent retailers theoretical research on such channel structures has analyzed the optimal behavior of channel members under alternative assumptions of manufacturer retailer interaction vertical strategic interaction research in empirical industrial organization has focused on analyzing the competitive interactions between manufacturers horizontal strategic interaction decision support systems have made various assumptions about retailer pricing rules e g constant markup category profit maximization the appropriateness of such assumptions about strategic behavior for any specific market however is an empirical question this paper therefore empirically infers 1 the vertical strategic interaction vsi between manufacturers and retailer 2 the horizontal strategic interaction hsi between manufacturers simultaneously with the vsi and 3 the pricing rule used by a retailer the approach is particularly appealing because it can be used with widely available scanner data where there is no information on wholesale prices researchers usually have no access to wholesale prices even manufacturers who have access to their own wholesale prices usually have limited information on competitors wholesale prices in the absence of wholesale prices we derive formulae for wholesale prices using game theoretic solution techniques under the specific assumptions of vertical and horizontal strategic interaction and retailer pricing rules we then embed the formulae for wholesale prices into the estimation equations while our empirical illustration is using scanner data without wholesale prices the model itself can be applied when wholesale prices are available early research on the inference of hsi among manufacturers in setting wholesale prices using scanner data e g kadiyali et al 1996 1999 made the simplifying assumption that retailers charge a constant margin this assumption enabled them to infer wholesale prices and analyze competitive interactions between manufacturers in this paper we show that this model is econometrically identical to a model that measures retail price coordination across brands hence the inferred cooperation among manufacturers could be exaggerated by the coordinated pricing category management done by the retailer we find empirical support for this argument this highlights the need to properly model and infer vsi simultaneously to accurately estimate the hsi when using data at the retail level functional forms of demand have been evaluated in terms of the fit of the model to sales data but recent theoretical research on channels lee and staelin 1997 tyagi 1999 has shown that the functional form has serious implications for strategic behavior such as retail passthrough while the logit and linear model implies equilibrium passthrough of less than 100 lee and staelin call this vertical strategic substitute vss the multiplicative model implies optimal passthrough of greater than 100 vertical strategic complement vsc because passthrough rates on promotions have been found to be below or above 100 chevalier and curhan 1976 armstrong 1991 we empirically test the appropriateness of the logit vss and the multiplicative vsc functional form for the data we perform our analysis in the yogurt and peanut butter categories for the two biggest stores in a local market we found that the vss implications of the logit fit the data better than the multiplicative model we also find that for both categories the best fitting model is one in which 1 the retailer maximizes category profits 2 the vsi is manufacturer stackelberg and 3 manufacturer pricing hsi is tacitly collusive the fact that the retailer maximizes category profits is consistent with theoretical expectations the inference that the vsi is manufacturer stackelberg reflects the institutional reality of the timing of the game retailers set their retail prices after manufacturers set their wholesale prices note that in the stores and product categories that we analyze the two manufacturers own the dominant brands with combined market shares of about 82 in the yogurt market and 65 in the peanut butter market the result is also consistent with a balance of power argument in the literature the finding that manufacturer pricing is tacitly collusive is consistent with the argument that firms involved in long term competition in concentrated markets can achieve tacit collusion managers use decision support systems for promotion planning that routinely make assumptions about vsi hsi and the functional form the results from our analysis are of substantive import in judging the appropriateness of assumptions made in such decision support systems

should all choices count using the cut offs approach to edit responses in a choice experiment should we give equal weight to all responses in a choice experiment previous choice modelling papers have considered the issue of the internal consistency of choices such as the extent to which strictly dominated options are chosen in this paper a different focus is employed namely the extent to which people choose options which violate their stated upper or lower limits for the acceptable levels for individual attributes since hypothetical over statement of wtp has been a focus in stated preference studies we concentrate on violations of stated upper limits of wtp and explore the effects of editing such choices using a variable censoring rule and alternative approaches to re classifying choices the empirical case study is a choice experiment on eco tourists in rwanda our main conclusion is that the suggested approach offers a useful way of imposing consistency on choices and that editing choices in this manner has an appreciable impact on estimated willingness to pay however issues remain with regard to explaining why people apparently violate their stated maximum willingness to pay

estimating willingness to pay do health and environmental researchers have different methodological standards health and environmental economists have been employing stated preference sp methods such as conjoint analysis or contingent valuation to estimate the monetary value of public health interventions and environmental goods and services however the quality of data and the validity of results are sensitive to a number of decisions researchers make the aim of this study is to compare the degree of the current consensus among active researchers in the rapidly evolving area of sp methods in health and environmental valuation we surveyed researchers who have published manuscripts on sp methods in the last 10 years researchers were presented with hypothetical sp studies with different attributes they were first asked which study they would recommend to use to inform policy decisions and then asked which study has better quality our results show that good practice sp methods vary among study features and among researchers with different amounts and kinds of research experience although health researchers

consumer benefits of labels and bans on gm foods choice experiments with swedish consumers the european union has been relatively cautious about using biotechnology in food production a label regime combined with the right of individual member states to ban introduction of new genetically modified gm strains means that gm food products in effect are banned in many countries we show how it is possible to empirically test whether a ban can be motivated by reference to potential negative externalities this is followed up by results from a choice experiment we cannot reject the hypothesis of equal wtp for a ban and a labeling scheme

using choice experiments to value the environment this paper we outline the choice experiment approach to environmental valuation this approach has its roots in lancaster s characteristics theory of value in random utility theory and in experimental design we show how marginal values for the attributes of environmental assets such as forests and rivers can be estimated from pair wise choices as well as the value of the environmental asset as a whole these choice pairs are designed so as to allow efficient statistical estimation of the underlying utility function and to minimise required sample size choice experiments have important advantages over other environmental valuation methods such as contingent valuation and travel cost type models although many design issues remain unresolved applications to environmental issues have so far been relatively limited we illustrate the use of choice experiments with reference to a recent uk study on public preferences for alternative forest landscapes this study allows us to perform a convergent validity test on the choice experiment estimates of willingness to pay

contingent valuation a new perspective after several decades of academic research on the contingent valuation cv method a consistent behavioral explanation of hypothetical bias is still lacking based on evidence from economics economic psychology and the political sciences i propose an explanation that is based on two simple working hypotheses about respondent behaviour in contingent valuation surveys the first hypothesis is that survey respondents are unable to form consistent preferences about unfamiliar goods unless the choice context offers reliable informative cues that can be rationally exploited in simplified heuristics the second hypothesis is that the probability and impact of strategic responses in dichotomous choice questions about public goods depends on the extent to which the presented hypothetical costs differ from the actual costs the literature on hypothetical bias is revisited in the light of these behavioral hypotheses i find that the hypotheses are generally supported by the empirical data moreover the hypotheses are able to explain several important empirical phenomena that previous research has not been able to explain in particular they solve the puzzle that pre election polls but not cv surveys are able to predict actual referendum outcomes and they explain why income effects on willingness to pay are lower in cv responses than in actual votes if confirmed by further studies the hypotheses will have important implications for future research and practice first the hypothetical costs presented in the dichotomous choice question should to be close enough to the actual costs to be credible to all respondents this can be achieved by specifying the costs as a percentage rather than absolute change in taxes second the respondents should be given the option to answer based on information about the positions of large parties and interest groups with known political orientation rather than based on the raw policy information theory and evidence suggest that this new survey paradigm largely eliminates the fundamental problems of the conventional stated preference methods

the effects of changing cost vectors on choices and scale heterogeneity choice experiments ce are widely used to estimate the values of changes in non market goods and services a cost attribute is typically included in a ce questionnaire to enable the estimation of monetary values for changes in the non market attributes presented notwithstanding the central importance of the cost attribute relatively little research has been undertaken on the impacts of varying cost attribute levels on value estimates or on individual heterogeneity in this paper i present results from mixed logit and generalised mixed logit models that account for unobserved idiosyncratic preference and scale heterogeneity respondents are found to anchor their choices on the relative cost levels presented in the survey with results suggesting that people are more sensitive to relative rather than absolute cost vectors however the higher cost levels do not lead to significantly higher value estimates partly because of observed preference heterogeneity towards the environmental attributes an important observation is that scale heterogeneity is important accounting for scale as well as preference heterogeneity in the generalised mixed logit model leads to significantly improved model fit the results indicate significant unobserved error variance across respondents unrelated to whether a high or low cost vector is used

releasing the trap a method to reduce inattention bias in survey data with application to u s beer taxes this study uses discrete choice experiments to explore the efficacy of prompts targeted at reducing inattention bias upon receiving feedback inattentive respondents are given the opportunity to reanswer a so called trap question that checks for attentiveness we find that individuals who miss trap questions and do not correctly revise their responses have significantly different choice patterns as compared to individuals who correctly answer the trap question adjusting for these inattentive responses has a substantive impact on policy impacts results based on attentive participant responses indicate that a minimum beer price would have to be substantial to substantially reduce beer demand jel c83 q18 q51

contingent valuation controversies and evidence contingent valuation cv has become one of the most widely used non market valuation techniques cv s prominence is due to its flexibility and ability to estimate total value including passive use value its use and the inclusion of passive use value in benefit cost analyses and environ mental litigation are the subject of a contentious debate this paper discusses key areas of the debate over cv and the validity of passive use value we conclude that many of the alleged problems with cv can be resolved by careful study design and implementation we further conclude that claims that empirical cv findings are theoretically inconsistent are not generally supported by the literature the debate over cv however has clarified several key issues related to nonmarket valuation and can provide useful guidance both to cv practitioners and the users of cv results

the relation between price and marginal cost in u s industry an examination of data on output and labor input reveals that some u s industries have marginal cost well below price the conclusion rests on the finding that cyclical variations in labor input are small compared with variations in output in booms firms produce substantially more output and sell it for a price that exceeds the costs of the added inputs the paper documents the disparity between price and marginal cost where marginal cost is estimated from annual variations in cost it considers a variety of explanations of the findings that are consistent with competition but none is found to be completely plausible

sticky price and limited participation models of money a comparison abstract we provide new evidence that models of the monetary transmission mechanism should be consistent with at least the following facts after a contractionary monetary policy shock the aggregate price level responds very little aggregate output falls interest rates initially rise real wages decline by a modest amount and profits fall we compare the ability of sticky price and limited participation models with frictionless labor markets to account for these facts the key failing of the sticky price model lies in its counterfactual implications for profits the limited participation model can account for all the above facts but only if one is willing to assume a high labor supply elasticity 2 percent and a high markup 40 percent the shortcomings of both models reflect the absence of labor market frictions such as wage contracts or factor hoarding which dampen movements in the marginal cost of production after a monetary policy shock 1997 elsevier science b v

convergent validity of attribute based choice questions in stated preference studies the application of attribute based choice questions is well established in the marketing literature but there are unique aspects of the design that warrant investigation to assess their validity for economic welfare estimation three design issues are investigated in this paper 1 the placement of the monetary stimulus policy cost to respondents in the sequence of attributes 2 the number of policy alternatives respondents are asked to consider in choice questions two versus three and 3 the inclusion versus exclusion of a status quo alternative in choice questions the data used to implement these investigations are from a survey designed to estimate the value maine residents place on a farmland conservation easement program tests of convergent validity indicate that the placement of the monetary stimulus first versus last in the list of attributes did not affect estimates of preference parameters significant differences between questions with three versus two alternatives did occur and the inclusion exclusion of a status quo alternative did not affect preference parameters

are valuations from nonhypothetical choice experiments different from those of experimental auctions due to the importance of comparability and external validity of results nonhypothetical experimental methods are increasingly used to elicit consumers willingness to pay for various goods two of the increasingly popular preference elicitation methods are the nonhypothetical choice experiments and experimental auctions we conduct experiments to compare willingness to pay estimates elicited from both methods our results generally suggest that valuations elicited from experimental auctions can differ from those obtained from nonhypothetical choice experiments copyright 2011 oxford university press

a choice experiment on fuel taxation and earmarking in norway abstract pigouvian taxes are efficient but unpopular among voters and hence often politically infeasible earmarking of revenues has been widely reported to increase public support for taxes but earmarking is generally not the most efficient use of the revenues this trade off between efficiency and political feasibility is the motivation for our primary research objective to quantify the effect of earmarking on support for fuel tax rises our secondary research objective is to investigate why earmarking increases support using data from a representative sample of the norwegian voter population n 1147 we estimate models of voter preferences for fuel taxes using logistic regression models our results show that in the absence of earmarking the majority of voters would like to reduce fuel taxes but earmarking the revenues for environmental measures has a substantial effect on voter support for fuel tax increases garnering a majority for increases of up to 15 above present levels further analysis indicates that a prime reason why earmarking for environmental measures is popular is that it increases the perceived environmental effectiveness of the tax and hence its legitimacy as an environmental rather than a fiscal policy instrument

effects of cheap talk on consumer willingness to pay for golden rice a large body of literature suggests willingness to pay is overstated in hypothetical valuation questions as compared to when actual payment is required recently cheap talk has been proposed to eliminate the potential bias in hypothetical valuation questions cheap talk refers to process of explaining hypothetical bias to individuals prior to asking a valuation question this study explores the effect of cheap talk in a mass mail survey using a conventional value elicitation technique results indicate that cheap talk was effective at reducing willingness to pay for most survey participants however consistent with previous research cheap talk did not reduce willingness to pay for knowledgeable consumers

valuing wetland attributes an application of choice experiments abstract the interest for wetlands is increasing not only because of the possibility of a cost efficient uptake of nutrients but also because wetlands can be designed to provide other services what values that are supplied depend largely on the design there are numerous different design options and different actors may promote different alternatives whether we want to design a wetland for nutrient retention alone or one that also serves other interests policy makers need information about the value of different options conducting a choice experiment we are able to identify attributes that increase and decrease citizens perceived value of wetlands using a random parameter model we find that biodiversity and walking facilities are the two greatest contributors to welfare while a fenced waterline and introduction of crayfish decrease welfare

tough and easy choices testing the influence of utility difference on stated certainty in choice in choice experiments respondents in stated preference studies may be uncertain about their preferences for the good presented to them inspired by wang j environ econ manag 32 219 232 1997 we hypothesize that respondents stated certainty in choice increases with the utility difference between the alternative chosen and the best alternative to that we test this hypothesis using data from two independent choice experiments both focusing on nature values in modelling respondents self reported certainty in choice we find evidence that the stated level of certainty increases significantly as utility difference in choice sets increases in addition stated certainty increases with income furthermore there is some evidence that male respondents are inherently more certain in their choices than females and a learning effect may increase stated certainty we find evidence of this in the first study where the good is described in rather broad and generic terms but not in the second study where a more specific description of the good is used

learning and fatigue effects revisited investigating the effects of accounting for unobservable preference and scale heterogeneity using multiple choice tasks per respondent in discrete choice experiment studies increases the amount of available information however respondents learning and fatigue may lead to changes in observed utility function preference taste parameters as well as the variance in its error term scale they need to be controlled to avoid potential bias a sizable body of empirical research offers mixed evidence in terms of whether these ordering effects are observed we point to a significant component in explaining these differences we show how accounting for unobservable preference and scale heterogeneity can influence the magnitude of observed ordering effects

observed and unobserved preference heterogeneity in brand choice models this paper extends the scanner based choice literature by explicitly incorporating individual level brand preference data we illustrate our model using a unique data set that combines survey and scanner data collected from the same individuals the addition of individual specific brand preference information significantly improves fit and prediction furthermore this observed heterogeneity better explains choice than does unobserved heterogeneity in the standard scanner model s parameters more importantly we find that the standard model underestimates the importance of consumers brand preferences and overestimates both brand loyalties and price sensitivities brand loyalty is overestimated because models without preference information confound state dependence heterogeneity and preference effects price sensitivities are inflated because the average preference based consumer is implicitly assumed to be more willing to switch from his preferred brand than is the real preference based consumer further standard models overestimate the heterogeneity in price and loyalty sensitivities and misidentify both price and loyalty sensitive consumers the managerial implications of our findings and the applicability of our methodology when survey data are collected infrequently and for only a subsample of consumers are pursued we demonstrate that even under these circumstances better populationwide pricing and promotion decisions are identified and more accurate targeting results

did tough antitrust policy lead to lower mark ups in the us manufacturing industry abstract this paper tests whether antitrust policy in the us has an impact on the price cost margin using a unique database the methodology developed by domowitz et al review of economics and statistics 70 1988 55 66 is applied to find estimates of the price cost margin the estimates indicate presence of market power in many industries but also substantial heterogeneity of behaviour both across time and industries finally it confirms the hypothesis that mark ups were lower when the antitrust policy was very tough

an empirical analysis of internal and external reference prices using scanner data single source yogurt data are used to examine whether both internal and external reference prices affect purchase decisions internal reference prices are memory resident prices based on actual fair or other price concepts external reference prices are observed stimuli such as regular prices that stores may display along with a sale price for comparability discrete choice models with variables representing the two types of reference prices are estimated and both types of variables are found to have significant effects on purchase probabilities this suggests that consumers may use multiple reference points in evaluating price in purchase decisions in addition a model using an indicator of a sale price discount explains purchase probabilities as well as one that models the actual discount which suggests that consumers may be reacting to the indication of savings rather than to the amount of the discount

reliability of stated preferences for cholera and typhoid vaccines with time to think in hue vietnam weexaminetheeffectofgivingrespondentstimetothinkabouttheirstatedchoices sc in a survey of cholera and typhoid vaccine preferences in hue vietnam because neither vaccine is widely available in vietnam we used the sc approach a stated preference technique and gave half of our respondents overnight to think about their choices to make the hypothetical valuation scenario as similar to a real life choice situation as possible respondents who were given extra time made fewer choices that violated internal validity tests of utility theory and had lower average willingness to pay wtp confirming a result found in similar studies in the contingent valuation literature jel d12 i18 c25

effect of experimental design on choice based conjoint valuation estimates in this article we investigate the effect of several commonly used experimental designs on willingness to pay in a monte carlo environment where true utility parameters are known all experimental designs considered in this study generated unbiased valuation estimates however random designs or designs that explicitly incorporated attribute interactions generated more precise valuation estimates than main effects only designs a key result of our analysis is that a large sample size can substitute for a poor experimental design overall our results indicate that certain steps can be taken to achieve a manageably sized experimental design without sacrificing the credibility of welfare estimates

the state of the art of environmental valuation with discrete choice experiments abstract this paper provides with a review of the state of the art of environmental valuation with discrete choice experiments dces the growing body of literature on this field serves to emphasize the increasing role that dces are playing in environmental decision making in the last decade the paper attempts to cover the full process of undertaking a choice experiment including survey and experimental design econometric analysis of choice data and welfare analysis the research on this field is found to be intense although many challenges are put forward e g choice task complexity and cognitive effort experimental design preference and scale heterogeneity endogeneity or model uncertainty reviewing the state of the art of dces serves to draw attention to the main challenges that this methodological approach will need to overcome in the coming years and to identify the frontiers in discrete choice analysis

a survey based choice experiment on coca cultivation from 1997 to 2005 an astonishing 5200 million usd was invested to reduce cocaine production in colombia the world s main cocaine producer however little is known about the effectiveness of policies targeting coca cultivation this paper uses a survey based experiment to evaluate the effects of the two main policies eradication and alternative development programs our results support becker s 1968 model of crime participation and in addition shed light on other non monetary factors that affect the coca cultivation decision religion legitimacy remoteness and poverty are found to be important we find that coca cultivation is inelastic to increases in perceived risk and relative profit so eradication and alternative development would have a rather small effect on coca cultivation a simple simulation exercise predicts that investing additional hundred thousand dollars in eradication decreases coca cultivation in only 1 5 c 2009 elsevier b v all rights reserved less

consumer shopping behavior how much do consumers save this paper documents the potential and actual savings that consumers realize from four particular types of purchasing behavior purchasing on sale buying in bulk at a lower per unit price buying generic brands and choosing outlets how much can and do households save through each of these behaviors how do these patterns vary with consumer demographics we use data collected by a marketing firm on all food purchases brought into the home for a large nationally representative sample of u k households in 2006 we are interested in how consumer choice affects the measurement of price changes in particular a standard price index based on a fixed basket of goods will overstate the rise in the true cost of living because it does not properly consider sales and bulk purchasing according to our measures the extent of this bias might be of the same or even greater magnitude than the better known substitution and outlet biases

milk by any other name consumer benefits from labeled milk this article uses revealed preferences of consumers to study the consumer benefits from rbst free and organic labeled milk the article specifies and estimates a quadratic aids demand system model for different milk types using u s supermarket scanner data the introduction of rbst free and organic milk is used to estimate consumer benefits that are decomposed into two components competitive and variety effects results show significant consumer benefits from organic milk and to a lesser extent from rbst free milk based on the findings we explore implications for present u s labeling standards th eu s food sector is going through rapid transformations in terms of new product introduction and innovations organic and genetically modified gm food products are leading the way in changing the landscape of available choices to consumers this rapid expansion of product space has taken place concomitantly with an increase in public policy concerns on issues of standardization labeling health risks and associated consumer welfare in this paper we explore these broader issues in the context of a specific product introduction the introduction of recombinant bovine somatotropin rbst free and organic milk in the u s market from a policy perspective understanding the market for organics and the various components of that demand i e what portion is for gm free and what is for other attributes of organics can help determine the value of creating a national standard and the potential welfare losses to consumers of weakening such a standard are consumers willing to pay extra for organic and rbst free milk if so how

commercial use of upc scanner data industry and academic perspectives the authors report the findings from an exploratory investigation of the use of upc scanner data in the consumer packaged goods industry in the u s the study examines the practitioner community s view of the use of scanner data and compares these views with academic research forty one executives from ten data suppliers packaged goods manufacturers and consulting firms participated in wide ranging in person interviews conducted by the authors the interviews sought to uncover key questions practitioners would like to answer with scanner data how scanner data is applied to these questions and the industry s perspective regarding the success that the use of scanner data has had in each area the authors then compare and contrast practitioners views regarding the resolution of each issue with academic research this produces a 2 2 classification of each question as resolved or unresolved from the perspectives of industry and academia along the diagonal of the 2 2 issues viewed as unresolved by both groups are important topics for future research issues deemed resolved by both groups are correspondingly of lower priority in the off diagonal cells industry and academics disagree these topics should be given priority for discussion information exchange and possible further research practitioners reported that scanner data analysis has had the most success and been most widely adopted for decision making in consumer promotions i e coupons trade promotions and pricing for example logit and regression models applied to scanner data have revealed very low average consumer response to coupons which has directly led to reduced couponing activity managers also reported high levels of comfort with and impact from analyses of trade promotions and price elasticities while industry views most of the issues in these areas to be resolved academic research raises concerns about a number of practices in common commercial use these include price threshold analysis and trade promotion evaluation using baseline and incremental sales in product strategy advertising and distribution management practitioners reported that the use of scanner data has had more limited development success and impact in the case of new product decisions scanner data use has been slow to develop due to the inherent limitations of historicaldata for these decisions and a heavy reliance on traditional primary research methods in advertising scanner data is widely analyzed with models but confusion among practitioners is very high due to controversies about methods e g what level of data aggregation is best and conflicting results in distribution and retail management scanner data use has tremendous potential but a mixed track record to date thus practitioners view the use of scanner data as unresolved for most issues in product strategy advertising and distribution this view is largely though not entirely consistent with academic research which has only begun to address many of the key questions raised by practitioners in light of the large number of unresolved issues and mixed record of scanner data use to date the authors offer aseries of specific recommendations for immediate and long term research priorities that are likely to have the greatest impact on commercial utilization of upc scanner data topics of immediate priority include price thresholds and gaps baseline and incremental sales base price elasticity competitive reactions measurement of advertising effects management of brand equity rationalization of product assortments and category management long term priorities include a greater emphasis on profitability versus sales or market share developing prescriptive models versus descriptive models and the need for industry standards

preferences with and without prices does the price attribute affect behavior in stated preference surveys the experimental as well as the non market valuation literature include several examples of how an introduced price can affect behavior in otherwise not expected ways it has become standard to include a price vector as an attribute in choice experiments something that enables us to estimate a marginal willingness to pay for other attributes we test the impact on preferences by an inclusion of a price in a choice experiment preferences are affected as might be expected however also the relative ranking of individual attributes is affected

the role of prices in measuring the poor s living standards in this paper we revisit two pieces of conventional wisdom in the current debate about poverty paying close attention to the price data underlying these findings that the poor pay more than households of higher income for the goods and services they purchase and that poverty rates at least as measured by the u s census have remained essentially flat since the late 1960s raising questions about the success of the policies implemented to reduce poverty by examining scanner data on thousands of household purchases we find that the poor pay less not more for the goods they purchase and by extending the advances on price measurement in the recent decade back to the 1970s we find that current poverty rates are less than half of the official numbers

an investigation into procedural in variance in the valuation of mortality risk reductions abstract this study investigates whether elicited preferences are affected by the presentation of mortality risks in a stated preference survey we elicited willingness to pay for public risk reducing initiatives under three different but outcome equivalent presentation format results from a discrete choice experiment demonstrate that presentation format influences the valuation of mortality risk reductions which to varying degrees depends on the respondent s level of concern and numeracy marginal willingness to pay for a risk reduction increases significantly when framed in terms of avoided fatalities compared to corresponding frequencies furthermore we find that less numerate respondents are more influenced by the inclusion of the number of fatalities in the presentation format the same pattern is observed for respondents who express a higher degree of concern for a traffic accident

effects of label information on consumer willingness to pay for food attributes choice experiments ces are often used to elicit consumer willingness to pay wtp for food attributes a concern about these approaches is that food attributes provided to respondents are assumed independent of attributes not provided we use surveys containing a series of ces to investigate effects of adding beef steak attributes wtp for important attributes in the ces decrease when the number of attributes increases from three to four while wtp increases when the number of attributes increases from four to five changes in wtp for attributes depend on their relationships with newly added attributes and the number of attributes presented copyright 2007 oxford university press

procyclical multifactor productivity tests of the current theories this paper conducts various tests of four hypotheses to account for procycical multifactor productivity the hypotheses include imperfect competition increasing returns to scale labor hoarding and thick market externalities the test results provide strong evidence for imperfect competition and increasing returns and weak evidence for labor hoarding and thick market externalities however the markup and returns to scale parameter estimates are much smaller than those noted in previous research this difference results from the use here of gross output and intermediate inputs as opposed to the use in previous research of value added and primary inputs

dynamic hypothetical bias in discrete choice experiments evidence from measuring the impact of corporate social responsibility on consumers demand abstract this paper is aimed at studying the dynamics of consumers preferences for corporate social responsibility the data come from both a discrete choice experiment dce and a field experiment conducted in a real market setting the results show that in a static setting first month predictions of a standard dce study and real market shares are statistically similar for the various profiles of corporate social responsibility however as time evolves real market shares present some dynamic patterns that are not mirrored by the standard dce predictions the overall conclusion is that differences between real market behavior and dce data can be attributed to the lack of learning experience or adaptation in dce surveys rather than to the hypothetical nature of the experiments

validation of stated preferences for public goods a comparison of contingent valuation survey response and voting behaviour this study reports the results from an in person comparison of contingent valuation cv survey response and subsequent voting behaviour on comparable propositions to increase public spending for landscape protection a substantial proportion of cv responses were not consistent with self reported actual voting decisions suggesting an upward bias of stated willingness to pay item non response and protest zero bids were more frequently given by those rejecting than those approving the actual proposition self reported actual decisions yielded a more consistent explanatory pattern than did hypothetical choices the official aggregate voting records show that these results cannot be explained simply by errors in self reported votes we conclude that referenda provide a valuable opportunity to test stated preference methods for public goods particularly public goods with significant passive use values however an important requirement is that the stated choices to be compared with the referendum decisions unlike in previous studies come from independent contingent valuation surveys

the importance of product reformulation versus consumer choice in improving diet quality improving diet quality has been a target of public health policy governments have encouraged consumers to make healthier food choices and firms to reformulate food products evaluation of such policies has focused on the impact on consumer behaviour firm behaviour has been less well studied we show that the recent decline in dietary salt intake in the uk was entirely attributable to product reformulation consumer switching between products worked in the opposite direction and led to a slight increase in grocery salt intensity these findings point to the important role that firms can play in achieving public policy goals