the home bias of the poor foreign asset portfolios across the wealth distribution abstract this paper documents how the share of foreign stocks in us household portfolios rises with the ratio of financial wealth to non financial income this is both because wealthier households are more likely to participate in foreign asset markets and because portfolio shares of participants increase with financial wealth but decrease with non financial income a simple standard two country general equilibrium model shows that hedging of terms of trade movements and non financial income risk produces non trivial heterogeneity in portfolios across the wealth and income distribution within countries that is qualitatively in line with this evidence

trying to explain home bias in equities and consumption investors hold a substantially larger proportion of their wealth portfolios in domestic assets than standard portfolio theory would suggest a phenomenon called equity home bias in the absence of this bias investors would optimally diversify domestic output risk using foreign equities therefore consumption growth rates would tend to co move across countries even when output growth rates do not empirically however consumption growth rates tend to have a lower correlation across countries than do output growth rates a phenomenon i call consumption home bias in this paper i discuss these two biases and their potential relationship as suggested by the literature

home sweet home home bias and international diversification among individual investors abstract a striking feature of international portfolio investment is the extent to which equity portfolios are concentrated in the domestic market of the investor we investigate differences in home bias on an individual level by studying portfolios formed as a part of the new defined contribution pension plan in sweden we estimate the likelihood of home bias and use individuals demographic and socioeconomic features as explanatory variables our findings indicate that the likelihood of home bias is caused by both rational and irrational factors moreover we relate home bias to investors desire to hedge against inflation sophistication and overconfidence

commodity trade and international risk sharing how much do financial markets matter abstract this paper evaluates the social gains from international risk sharing in some simple general equilibrium models with output uncertainty a simulation model calibrated to selected moments of u s and japanese data estimates the incremental loss from a ban on international portfolio diversification to be on the order of 0 20 percent of output per year even the theoretical gains from asset trade may disappear under alternative sets of assumptions on preferences and technology the paper argues that the small magnitude of potential trade gains may help explain the apparently inconsistent findings of empirical studies on the degree of international capital mobility

the financial crisis in thailand causes conduct and consequences abstract the financial crisis in thailand was a private sector failure expressing itself partly in increasing current account problems but mainly in careless lending borrowing and the accumulation of nonperforming loans in the financial sector during a period when the real economy showed signs of weakening with sluggish exports and an increase in the current account deficit hot money flowed in and covered the deficit but also led to careless investments financial liberalization in an uncontrolled financial sector resulted in misallocation and mismatching political instability indecisiveness and mismanagement at the political and administrative level also contributed to the financial meltdown in thailand

equality efficiency and market fundamentals the dynamics of international medical care reform public opinion surveys uniformly show low support for medical care systems in developed countries the longstanding conflict between equal access to care and efficient service provision partly explains this dissatisfaction but the trade off is particularly acute in medical care as new technologies developed over time have increased the cost of care and made the equity commitment even more expensive countries first dealt with rising costs by maintaining equal access and restricting total spending efficiency suffered however as a result many countries are considering a move away from spending controls and toward incentive based medical care reform

the economics of invention incentives patents prizes and research contracts though public intervention in the market for research is virtually universal economists have paid surprisingly little attention to the choice of the form of research incentive in a given market structure many studies concentrate on patents but any assumption of their superiority over other incentives has been founded on intuition rather than on formal analysis in this paper i analyze the choice between three of the most common alternative means of public intervention in the research market namely patents prizes and direct contracting for research services i show why and under what conditions any one of the three may be preferred by a social welfare maximizing administrator in a competitive economy using a model that for the first time pays explicit attention to differences in the informational roles of each of these alternatives in the extensive literature on the economics of patents see arnold plant 1934 fritz machlup 1958 charles taylor and z a silberston 1973 morton kamien and nancy schwartz 1975 and f m scherer 1977 for valuable surveys formal analysis weighs the benefits of patents as a solution to the market failure associated with the inappropriability of knowledge against the welfare cost due to the restriction on the use of the knowledge generated and this tradeoff is optimized by patent life adjustment in william nordhaus 1969 scant analytical attention is paid to alternative incentive mechanisms an exception is ben yu 1981 who considers the role of prior contracting for inventions but as many writers for example dan usher 1964 yoram barzel 1968 joseph stiglitz 1969 carole kitti 1973 glenn loury 1979 partha dasgupta and stiglitz 1980a have pointed out in various contexts the incentive offered by an unlimited patent to competitive researchers may be excessive due to the common pool problem discussed further in section i below if the patent administrator and researchers share the same information as implicitly assumed in previous models then the patent life limitation can be adjusted to provide the optimal patent incentive given the common pool problem but in all such models patents would not be chosen in a fully optimized fiscal system researchers and the administrator are assumed to have identical information about the shadow price of potential inventions a patent is just a means of turning this shadow price into a monetary reward but monetary compensation can instead be offered directly to researchers by the state assuming that patent revenues incur a higher deadweight loss than an equivalent amount of public funds financed by less distortionary means for example a minimally efficient tax system appropriate prizes or government contracts are socially preferable to patents with optimal lives if the patent is ever to be the optimal incentive mechanism for research it must possess advantages not captured in existing models informal discussions of patents emphasize their informational role to include the latter as a justification for decentralized invention incentives i incorporate an ex ante imbalance of information about costs and benefits of research in the model presented in section ii but this alone is not quite enough it is further necessary to specify that the terms of the award must be fixed before department of economics economic growth center box 1987 yale station yale university new haven ct 06520 i thank with the usual caveat marguerite alejandro wright cindy arfken martin baily nuong brennan steven englander robert evenson richard levin richard nelson susan rose ackerman denis wright and two referees for assistance of various kinds

asian currency and financial crises lessons from vulnerability crisis and collapse this paper presents an analytical framework for understanding the east asian crises we argue that vulnerability was created by the boom and bust incurred under pegged exchange rates and by liberalisation in the presence of a bank based financial regime with implicit promises of bail out these vulnerabilities were interconnected negative shocks precipitated both currency devaluation and financial crisis and the latter created obligations for the government to bail out the financial sector the critical feature which led to collapse was we argue the fact that currency depreciation led to a worsening of the financial crisis due to massive unhedged borrowing in foreign currency to which the fixed exchange rate regime had led financial collapse resulted when the currency devaluation was sufficiently large that those who had lent to the financial system came to believe that government guarantees could not be honoured this in turn triggered fears of sovereign insolvency which turned currency depreciation into currency collapse

international portfolios capital accumulation and foreign assets dynamics despite the liberalization of capital ows among oecd countries equity home bias remains sizable we depart from the two familiar explanations of equity home bias transaction costs that impede international diversi cation and terms of trade responses to supply shocks that provide risk sharing so that there is little incentive to hold diversi ed portfolios we show that the interaction of the following ingredients generates a realistic equity home bias capital accumulation shocks to the e ciency of physical investment as well as international trade in stocks and bonds in our model domestic stocks are used to hedge uctuations in local wage income terms of trade risk is hedged using bonds denominated in local goods and in foreign goods in contrast to related models the low level of international diversi cation does not depend on strongly countercyclical terms of trade the model also reproduces the cyclical dynamics of foreign asset positions and of international capital ows

the interaction between forms of insurance contract and types of technical change in medical care a simple three parameter description of medical technology is introduced to investigate the relationships between technical change welfare and type of insurance contract the value of a particular change in technology depends on the existing form of contract the marginal equilibrium expected utility to consumers of different types of technical change hinges on the manner in which the insurance arrangement is designed to mitigate moral hazard these results open the way for a positive model of the effects of insurance arrangements on the types of technology that are adopted and the effects of technical changes on the prevalent forms of insurance contract

from miracle to cronyism explaining the great asian slump explanations are about the only thing not in short supply in the asian crisis for all their diversity they can be collapsed into two meta interpretations reflecting deeper differences in beliefs about rationality and markets those whose world view emphasizes rationality self adjusting markets and market failure as exceptional except when governments introduce distortions tend to see the crisis as the result of rational calculations in a situation of market distorting government interventions and institutional weaknesses in asian economies those whose world view stresses non rationality or a different kind of rationality than that assumed by neoclassical theory routine failure of well working markets and the need for government interventions to modify market outcomes tend to see it as the result of non rational calculations in under regulated financial markets both national and international

medical care costs how much welfare loss hardly a week goes by without a front page newspaper article on rising health care costs and the uninsured in this article i focus mainly on costs arguing that the issue has been somewhat misconceived while the level of medical care spending in the u s is a cause for concern the welfare losses associated with rises in that level of spending may not be as large as the public rhetoric can make them seem in fact cost containment may not be as urgent as is widely supposed and some proposed cost containment policies may result in welfare losses for the insured and even increase the number of uninsured

inducement prizes and innovation we examine the effect of prizes on innovation using data on awards for technological development offered by the royal agricultural society of england at annual competitions between 1839 and 1939 we find large effects of the prizes on competitive entry and we also detect an impact on patents especially when prize categories were set by a strict rotation scheme thereby mitigating the potentially confounding effect that they targeted only hot technology sectors prizes encouraged competition and medals were more important than monetary awards the boost to innovation we observe cannot be explained by the re direction of existing inventive activity

insurance and incentives for innovation in medical care economists have frequently pointed to the distorting effects of health insurance as a major contributor to rapidly increasing health costs relatively little is known however about the influence of changing medical technology on expenditures if increases in expenditures are in part the result of development of costly but worthwhile new technologies a common view among noneconomists failure to take account of this may lead to over statement of the distortive effects of insurance on the other hand some observers have questioned whether the benefits derived from expensive medical innovations always exceed the costs 18 others have suggested that resources devoted to the development of very expensive technologies might be better used for other kinds of medical research 16 3 in light of these arguments it appears that the relationships between medical insurance and technological change may be quite important if the extent of insurance coverage influences the rate and direction of technological change in medicine then the long run welfare effects of insurance are more complex than current models 5 6 allow it is sometimes argued informally that such an influence existsthat the presence of insurance biases the system toward innovations that expand capabilities while increasing expenditures and away from those that reduce costs 15 20 such a hypothesis has however never been developed as an implication of a formal economic model even the term bias in the argument is unclear it appears to be used in a normative sense but it has not been explained clearly why such a bias if it exists leads to welfare losses even if it is true for example that the presence of insurance leads to the adoption of a more costly mix of medical innovations than would otherwise occur this is not obviously undesirable to facilitate the purchase of costly but beneficial medical care is the purpose of insurance this paper defines bias in technological change in a normative sense it employs a simple model of insurance and profit maximizing innovators and develops sufficient

medical insurance technological change and welfare concerns have been expressed about the welfare effects of expensive innovations in medical care financed largely through medical insurance this paper develops a model which considers such issues it is shown that even if insurance is purchased optimally subject to a plausible constraint on the form of the contract innovations may be adopted that have the effect of reducing expected welfare the question of how the benefits of medical innovations ought to be measured in the presence of insurance is also explored

home bias in open economy financial macroeconomics standard theory would predict that investors hold a well diversified portfolio of equities across the world but despite the process of financial globalization investors still hold a disproportionate share of local equities in their portfolio the equity home bias french and poterba 1991 we review the various explanations of this puzzling phenomenon in the context of recent developments in macroeconomic modelling that have allowed to incorporate sophisticated international portfolio choices in standard two country general equilibrium models we refer to this literature as open economy financial macroeconomics we focus on three broad classes of explanations i hedging motives in frictionless financial markets real exchange rate and non tradable income risk ii asset trade costs in international financial markets such as transaction costs differences in tax treatments between national and foreign assets iii informational frictions and behavioural biases these recent developments raise the need for new portfolio facts beyond the equity home bias and we will present some new evidence on cross border asset holdings across different types of assets equities bonds and bank lending we also present some new micro data on institutional holdings of equity at the fund level these data should inform macroeconomic modelling of the open economy and a growing literature of models of delegated investment

economic crisis in east asia the clash of capitalisms since mid 1997 americans have been told that the asian economic model is obsolete and that the meltdown in east asia will not affect them their jobs or the american stockmarket even the continuing us trade deficits with asia of well over 100 billion are considered good news because cheap imports will keep down inflation but what was and still is at risk in east asia is the real possibility of a global collapse of demand and another great depression even if that does not happen america s system of rich satellites serving as hosts to an expeditionary force of some 100 000 us troops is virtually certain to come to an end

understanding economic policy reform one of the eventual consequences of the global debt crisis was a wave of market oriented economic reforms this paper discusses the state of our knowledge on the political economy of this process why were inefficient and often unsustainable policies maintained for so long why are so many governments reforming now after decades of adherence to policies of an opposite kind have the reformers internalized the correct lessons from the east asian experience finally are there any helpful rules for reformers to follow in guiding their policies through complicated political terrain

the end of the asian myth why were the experts fooled abstract this article examines the reasons behind the overoptimism of a large segment of the economics profession concerning the performance of east asian economies which was shattered by the financial crises of 1997 98 it also shows how the crisis placed into bold relief many institutional characteristics of these economies which negate many past attempts to characterize them as open and market driven

income and wealth heterogeneity in the macroeconomy how do movements in the distribution of income and wealth affect the macroeconomy we analyze this question using a calibrated version of the stochastic growth model with partially uninsurable idiosyncratic risk and movements in aggregate productivity our main finding is that in the stationary stochastic equilibrium the behavior of the macroeconomic aggregates can be almost perfectly described using only the mean of the wealth distribution this result is robust to substantial changes in both parameter values and model specification our benchmark model whose only difference from the representative agent framework is the existence of uninsurable idiosyncratic risk displays far less cross sectional dispersion and skewness in wealth than u s data however an extension that relies on a small amount of heterogeneity in thrift does succeed in replicating the key features of the wealth data furthermore this extension features aggregate time series that depart significantly from permanent income behavior

home bias at the fund level this paper presents new stylized facts on the distribution of the home bias at the fund level we find i a large heterogeneity in the degree of home bias across mutual funds ii a positive correlation between the size of funds and home bias and iii a positive correlation between the size of funds the number of foreign countries and the number of sectors in which they invest these facts constitute a challenge for existing theories this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the asian debt and development crisis of 1997 causes and consequences abstract interpretations of the asian crisis have coalesced around two rival stories the death throes of asian state capitalism story about internal real economy causes and the panic triggering debt deflation in a basically sound but under regulated system story that gives more role to external and financial system causes the paper presents the stories and assesses the evidence the evidence in particular the chronology of the crisis supports the second rather better than the first the paper discusses the interests driving capital account liberalization without a framework of regulation the single most irresponsible act of public authorities in the whole crisis us and uk financial firms allied with their treasuries and with the imf the wto and the oecd saw themselves at a chronic disadvantage in the asian system of long term relationships and patient capital this alliance supported by segments of asian political and financial elites achieved dramatic domestic financial sector liberalization and capital account opening in asia over the 1990s setting up the conditions for crisis paradoxically the crisis may be looked back upon not as the triumph of benign globalization and neoliberal economic doctrine but as the beginning of its end

preemptive patenting and the persistence of monopoly this article takes a different tack and inquires whether institutions such as the patent system create opportunities for firms with monopoly power to maintain their monopoly power the results apply to other situations such as brand identification spatial location and capacity expansion which share the characteristic that early or preemptive actions may lower the returns to potential competitors

consumer s surplus without apology the purpose of this paper is to settle the controversy surrounding consumer s surplus and by so doing to validate its use as a tool of welfare economics i will show that observed consumer s surplus can be rigorously utilized to estimate the unobservable compensating and equivalent variations the correct theoretical measures of the welfare impact of changes in prices and income on an individual i derive precise upper and lower bounds on the percentage errors of approximating the compensating and equivalent variations with consumer s surplus these bounds can be explicitly calculated from observable demand data and it is clear that in most applications the error of approximation will be very small in fact the error will often be overshadowed by the errors involved in estimating the demand curve the results in no way depend upon arguments about the constancy of the marginal utility of income consequently this paper supplies specific empirical criteria which can replace the apologetic caveats frequently employed by those who presently apply consumer s surplus moreover the results imply that consumer s surplus is usually a very good approximation to the appropriate welfare measures to preview below i establish the validity of these rules of thumb for a

democracy and the washington consensus abstract this paper argues that there is a substantial body of economic advice roughly summarized in the washington consensus that deserves to be endorsed across the political spectrum such endorsement would still leave a series of major economic issues most notably the tradeoff between efficiency and equity to be determined by the outcome of the political process it is argued that the left interpreted as those who give relatively more weight to equity will advance its cause by embracing the mainstream economics summarized by the consensus

market structure and innovation a survey economics we all recite deals with allocation of limited resources towards satisfaction of unlimited wants resources are typically identified as land labor and capital plus a technology that determines their transformation into consumer goods disparity between the available goods and services and the desired gives rise to scarcity and the question of what how and for whom to produce the focus then shifts to description and evaluation of alternative resource allocation mechanisms for making the choices the pareto criterion by which an allocation of resources is deemed efficient if any reallocation improving the position of some individual worsens the position of others is a commonly employed gauge of a mechanism s performance in the absence of externalities increasing returns to scale and uncertainty a perfectly competitive market system yields a pareto optimal allocation of resources this underlies the view that individual self interest is compatible with society s interest the further conclusion that pareto optimality may not be achieved via the market system in the presence of monopoly elements provides an economic rationale for antitrust laws the objective of a resource allocation mechanism appears to be according to the analysis described above to make the best of available resources the alternative objective of relaxing constraints through expanding the resource base or developing new technology seems to be beyond its scope thus until rather recently technical advance had been regarded in the mainstream of economic theory as unmotivated by the quest for profits and substantially unaffected by resource allocation instead as j schmookler observed technology had been viewed as a parameter like the weather affecting the outcome of resource allocations but itself unaffected by them 84 1965 evidence that technological progress has significantly contributed to growth in productivity together with a substantial increase in research and development activity largely financed by government and carried out by industry see f machlup 51 1962 may have spurred reconsideration of this view once technical advance is regarded as an economic variable it is natural to in

performance responses to competition across skill levels in rank order tournaments field evidence and implications for tournament design tournaments are widely used in the economy to organize production and innovation we study individual data on 2775 contestants in 755 software algorithm development contests with random assignment the performance response to added contestants varies nonmonotonically across contestants of different abilities precisely conforming to theoretical predictions most participants respond negatively whereas the highest skilled contestants respond positively in counterfactual simulations we interpret a number of tournament design policies number of competitors prize allocation and structure number of divisions open entry and assess their effectiveness in shaping optimal tournament outcomes for a designer

physician reimbursement and technology adoption this study analyses the incentives of health care providers to adopt new technologies in a world with ex post moral hazard it is shown that in a second best efficient world with respect to insurance coverage a linear remuneration scheme implements the adoption of second best efficient technologies only in special cases under a third best standard coinsurance contract the adequate reimbursement rule is characterised depending on the characteristics of the technology and on patients demand elasticities with respect to monetary and non monetary costs a shift from fee for service to capitation is likely to display undesirable incentives for very severe illnesses by inducing a reduction in the technically feasible level of healing or an increase in non monetary costs of treatment

the international diversification puzzle is not as bad as you think the international diversification puzzle is the fact that country portfolios are on average biased toward domestic assets while one good international macro models with nondiversifiable labor income risk predict the opposite pattern of diversification this paper embeds a portfolio choice decision in a two good international business cycle model and provides a closed form solution for equilibrium country portfolios equilibrium portfolios are biased toward domestic assets because endogenous international relative price fluctuations make domestic assets a good hedge against labor income risk evidence from developed economies in recent years is qualitatively and quantitatively consistent with the mechanisms highlighted by the theory

country portfolios in open economy macro models this paper develops a simple approximation method for computing equilibrium portfolios in dynamic general equilibrium open economy macro models the method is widely applicable simple to implement and gives analytical solutions for equilibrium portfolio positions in any combination or types of asset it can be used in models with any number of assets whether markets are complete or incomplete and can be applied to stochastic dynamic general equilibrium models of any dimension so long as the model is amenable to a solution using standard approximation methods we first illustrate the approach using a simple two asset endowment economy model and then show how the results extend to the case of any number of assets and general economic structure

the asian crisis and the shaping of proper economies the latter half of the 1990s saw a new international agenda develop the strengthening of the international financial system through the globalisation of standards and codes of best practice the author calls for critical reflection on this normalisation of free market capitalism and its global enforcement through a comprehensive system of economic standardisation and surveillance to this end michel foucault s analysis of liberalism is shown to be highly relevant

the role of knowledge in r d efficiency past research has recognized that both demand and capability influence the allocation of r d resources scholars have had an easier time getting a grip on demand than on capability while it has been recognized that knowledge is an important part of capability to date formalization of knowledge and its role in r d activity has been unsatisfactory this paper models the role of knowledge in r d various sources of such knowledge are considered the model throws a different light on analyses that employ a knowledge capital stock and also illuminates the dual private and public nature of technological knowledge

the merits of new pollutants and how to get them when patents are granted the performance of market based environmental regulation is affected by patents and vice versa this interaction is studied for a type of innovation where a new technology reduces emissions of a specific pollutant but at the same time causes a new type of damage if the new pollutant associated with this technology is sufficiently different from existing ones such that marginal damage is increasing in each of them but additive across pollutants a diversification of the pollution portfolio is socially desirable in a situation where the incentives to develop such a technology are created by patents the efficiency of permits is affected by monopoly pricing of the patent holding firm this result carries over to other types of innovation the performance of taxes is limited by either the inability to implement specific pollution mixes or monopoly pricing for constant returns to scale at the industry level the combined use of taxes and permits ensures the first best mix of technologies and provides positive research incentives