the american business cycle continuity and change in recent decades the american economy has experienced the worst peace time inflation in its history and the highest unemployment rate since the great depression these circumstances have prompted renewed interest in the concept of business cycles which joseph schumpeter suggested are like the beat of the heart of the essence of the organism that displays them in the american business cycle some of the most prominent macroeconomics in the united states focuses on the questions to what extent are business cycles propelled by external shocks how have post 1946 cycles differed from earlier cycles and what are the major factors that contribute to business cycles they extend their investigation in some areas as far back as 1875 to afford a deeper understanding of both economic history and the most recent economic fluctuations seven papers address specific aspects of economic activity consumption investment inventory change fiscal policy monetary behavior open economy and the labor market five papers focus on aggregate economic activity in a number of cases the papers present findings that challenge widely accepted models and assumptions in addition to its substantive findings the american business cycle includes an appendix containing both the first published history of the nber business cycle dating chronology and many previously unpublished historical data series

occupational choice and the process of development this paper models economic development as a process of institutional transformation by focusing on the interplay between agents occupational decisions and the distribution of wealth because of capital market imperfections poor agents choose working for a wage over self employment and wealthy agents become entrepreneurs who monitor workers only with sufficient inequality however will there be employment contracts otherwise there is either subsistence or self employment thus in static equilibrium the occupational structure depends on distribution since the latter is itself endogenous we demonstrate the robustness of this result by extending the model dynamically and studying examples in which initial wealth distributions have long run effects in one case the economy develops either widespread cottage industry self employment or factory production employment contracts depending on the initial distribution in the other example it develops into prosperity or stagnation

the federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission the authors show that the interest rate on federal funds is extremely informative about future movements of real macroeconomic variables then they argue that the reason for this forecasting success is that the funds rate sensitively records shocks to the supply of bank reserves that is the funds rate is a good indicator of monetary policy actions finally using innovations to the funds rate as a measure of changes in policy the authors present evidence consistent with the view that monetary policy works at least in part through credit i e bank loans as well as through money i e bank deposits copyright 1992 by american economic association

asymmetric price adjustment and economic fluctuations this paper considers a possible explanation for asymmetric adjustment of nominal prices the authors present a menu cost model in which positive trend inflation causes firms relative prices to decline automatically between price adjustments in this environment shocks that raise firms desired prices trigger larger price responses than shocks that lower desired prices the authors use this model of asymmetric adjustment to address three issues in macroeconomics the effects of aggregate demand the effects of sectoral shocks and the optimal rate of inflation copyright 1994 by royal economic society

nonmonetary effects of the financial crisis in propagation of the great depression this paper examines the effects of the financial crisis of the 1930s onthe path of aggregate output during that period our approach is complementary to that of friedman and schwartz who emphasized the monetary impact of the bank failures we focus on non monetary primarily credit related aspects of the financial sector output link and consider the problems of debtors as well as those of the banking system we argue that the financial disruptions of 1930 33 reduced the efficiency of the credit allocation process and that the resulting higher cost and reduced availability of credit acted to depress aggregate demand evidence suggests that effects of this type can help explain the unusual length and depth of the great depression this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

unemployment hysteresis and the natural rate hypothesis i introduction rod cross et al university of st andrews ii reflections on hysteresis and the natural rate 1 the irrelevance of the natural rate lawrence summers harvard university 2 on the history of hysteresis rod cross university of st andrews iii the characteristics of the unemployed 1 unemployment vacancies and the long term unemployed peter smith l b s paul levine south bank polytechnic alan budd l b s 2 characteristics of the long term unemployed evidence from the labour force survey stephen creigh department of employment 3 is unemployment irreversible peter r hughes department of employment gillian hutchinson queen mary college london iv analysis of hysteresis effects 1 union activity and wage employment movements assar lindbeck institute for international studies university of stockholm and dennis snower birkbeck college london 2 a simple model of imperfect competition with walrasian features huw dixon birkbeck college london 3 unemployment and worker quality simon price university of bristol 4 screening in labour markets with heterogeneous workers inge schnell university of bonn and l s e iv hysteresis effects and the explanation of aggregate unemployment 1 testing for multiple natural rates of unemployment in the british economy alan carruth university of kent and andrew oswald centre for labour economics l s e 2 why is wage inflation in britain so high stephen nickell university of oxford 3 phillips curve estimates incorporating a natural rate with hysteresis effects david coe o e c d 4 hysteresis and european unemployment olivier blanchard m i t and lawrence summers harvard university 5 the natural rate empirical fact or theoretical straitjacket tim jenkinson merton college oxford iv panel discussion the implications of hysteresis effects for unemployment policy 1 david stanton employment market research unit department of employment 2 charles adams i m f 3 marcus miller university of warwick 4 peter mcgregor fraser of allander institute university of strathclyde

who benefits from local job growth migrants or the original residents bartik t j 1993 who benefits from local job growth migrants or the original residents reg studies 27 297 311 this paper surveys research on whether the new jobs resulting from growth in a local economy e g a metropolitan area go to inmigrants or the original local residents the empirical evidence suggests that around one quarter of the new jobs from local growth increases the labour force participation rates of local residents in the long run these long run effects may occur because local growth provides residents with valuable employment experience research also suggests that minorities benefit most from growth and that higher wage industries provide greater employment benefits for local residents bartik t j 1993 qui est ce qui beneficie de la croissance d emploi locale les migrants ou la population autochtone reg studies 27 297 311 cet article etudie la recherche effectuee dans le but d evaluer si les nouveaux emplois dus a la croissance d une economic locale par exemple une

asymmetric effects of positive and negative money supply shocks this paper examines whether positive and negative money supply shocks have symmetric effects on output the results are consistent with the hypothesis that positive money supply shocks do not have an effect on output while negative money supply shocks do have an effect on output this finding is independent of whether or not expected money is assumed to affect output the results reported in this paper imply that the fed could increase the growth rate of real output by reducing the standard deviation of unexpected changes in the money supply

the u s and u k great depressions through the lens of neoclassical growth theory neoclassical growth theory is increasingly being used to study great depressions see e g mario j crucini and james kahn 1996 cole and ohanian 1999 2001a b 2002 michael bordo et al 2000 see also the january 2002 issue of the review of economic dynamics this paper extends our recent work that focuses on why the u s and u k great depressions lasted so long one of the key messages from our work is that the standard neoclassical growth model fails to account for the long duration of these depressions this paper extends our work by diagnosing the specific failures of the model we do this by measuring the deviations in the model s first order conditions we then use these deviations to identify particular factors that might account for these long durations we find very large deviations in the model s household labor efficiency condition in both countries and in the firm s labor efficiency condition in the united states these deviations provide new support for our recent conclusions that distorting labor market policies are key factors behind the long durations of both depressions cole and ohanian 2001a b

is probability theory relevant for uncertainty a post keynesian perspective stable url http links jstor org sici sici 0895 3309 28199124 295 3a1 3c129 3aiptrfu 3e2 0 co 3b2 gthe journal of economic perspectives is currently published by american economic association your use of the jstor archive indicates your acceptance of jstor s terms and conditions of use available athttp www jstor org about terms html jstor s terms and conditions of use provides in part that unless you have obtainedprior permission you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles and you may use content inthe jstor archive only for your personal non commercial use please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work publisher contact information may be obtained athttp www jstor org journals aea html each copy of any part of a jstor transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printedpage of such transmission the jstor archive is a trusted digital repository providing for long term preservation and access to leading academicjournals and scholarly literature from around the world the archive is supported by libraries scholarly societies publishers and foundations it is an initiative of jstor a not for profit organization with a mission to help the scholarly community takeadvantage of advances in technology for more information regarding jstor please contact support jstor org http www jstor orgsun feb 17 13 40 22 2008

the colorblind crowd founder race and performance in crowdfunding the dearth of minority entrepreneurs has received increasing media attention but few academic analyses in particular the funding process creates challenges for either audit or correspondence methods making it difficult to assess the role or type of discrimination influencing resource providers we use a novel approach that combines analyses of 7 617 crowdfunding projects with an experimental design to identify whether african american men are discriminated against and whether this reflects statistical taste based or unconscious bias on the part of prospective supporters we find that african american men are significantly less likely than similar white founders to receive funding and that prospective supporters rate identical projects as lower in quality when they believe the founder is an african american male we conclude that the reduction in perceived quality does not reflect conscious assumptions of differences in founder ability or disamenity but rather an unconscious assumption that black founders are lower quality in two additional experiments we identify three means of reducing this bias through additional evidence of quality via third party endorsements i e awards evidence of prior support through evidence that african american founders have succeeded previously and by removing indicators of the founder s race the online appendix is available at https doi org 10 1287 mnsc 2017 2774 this paper was accepted by toby stuart entrepreneurship and innovation

measurement matters recent results from monetary economics reexamined inferences about the effects of money on economic activity may depend importantly on the choice of a monetary index because simple sum aggregates cannot internalize pure substitution effects this hypothesis is investigated by replicating five recent studies that have challenged an aspect of the conventional wisdom about the effects of money on aggregate activity in four of the five cases the qualitative inference in the original study is reversed when a simple sum monetary aggregate is replaced by a divisia index of the same asset collection the results are mixed in the fifth case

was the deflation during the great depression anticipated evidence from the commodity futures market futures prices were well above spot prices for most commodities during most of the great depression evidently the spectacular declines in agricultural prices caught many people by surprise based on the historical correlations between commodity prices and consumer prices commodity markets anticipated stable consumer prices during the first year of the great depression the dramatic drop in nominal treasury bill yields thus should be read as a drop in ex ante real rates later in the great depression markets anticipated deflation but not as severe as actually occurred copyright 1992 by american economic association

were price changes during the great depression anticipated abstract this paper reassesses whether the large swings in prices during the 1930 s were anticipated we argue that uncertainty about monetary fiscal and exchange rate policies induced systematic differences between the rate of price change expected by economic agents at the time and the time series forecasts of inflation our analysis of nominal interest rates and ex post inflation strongly supports this view in fact our results suggest that the deflation of the early depression years and the inflation that followed were both largely unanticipated

market structure and discrimination the case of small businesses this paper examines bank market structure to draw inferences concerning the role of discrimination in credit markets for small businesses the authors analyze credit application and denial rates loans outstanding and interest rates across demographic groups this set of variables in combination with information on local bank market structure helps them distinguish among borrower preferences lender tastes and inadequate lender information as likely causes of differences in credit market experiences of small business operators from distinct demographic groups the authors find that white men and women can expect similar treatment in credit markets with some benefits to female owned firms located in concentrated banking markets minorities by contrast fare worse than whites moreover by appealing to becker s 1957 classic theories we find some clear evidence to support the view that prejudicial discrimination is at least partly to blame

releasing constraints to growth or pushing on a string policies and performance of mexican micro firms abstract using firm level data from mexico this paper investigates the firm characteristics associated with participation in credit markets access to training tax payments and membership in business associations we find that firms which participate in these institutions exhibit significantly higher profits moreover firms that borrow from formal or informal sources and those that pay taxes are significantly more likely to stay in business but firms that received credit exhibit lower rates of income growth these results persist when firm characteristics that are arguably correlated with unobserved entrepreneurial ability are controlled for our findings suggest that the significant within country differences in firm productivity observed in developing economies are due in part to market and government failures that limit the ability of micro firms to reach their optimal sizes

is the response of output to monetary policy asymmetric evidence from a regime switching coefficients model this paper investigates regime switching in the response of u s output to a monetary policy action we find substantial statistically significant time variation in this response that corresponds to high response and low response regimes we then investigate whether the timing of the regime shifts are consistent with three particular manifestations of asymmetry by modeling the transition probabilities governing the switching process as functions of state variables we find strong evidence that policy actions taken during recessions have larger effects than those taken during expansions we find less evidence of asymmetry related to the direction or size of the policy action

affirmative action programs and business ownership among minorities and women affirmative action programs are commonly used as a means to level the playing field for minority and women owned firms in public procurement markets and therefore may be a positive factor in business entry and survival to the extent that affirmative action programs also apply to traditional labor markets however they may alter the opportunity cost of starting a business we utilize the elimination of affirmative action in california and washington states through voter initiatives to identify the effect of affirmative action on minority and female self employment rates in our base specifications we find evidence of modest increases in self employment among minorities and women in both california and washington after elimination of affirmative action consistent with the hypothesis that the opportunity cost of starting a business fell due to restricting opportunities in the traditional labor markets the sign of the estimated effect however is not uniformly positive when considering specific race gender groups and the statistical significance of the main results is somewhat sensitive to the choice of control states

the causes of unemployment in france a flow approach a flow model is used to identify the causes for rising unemployment in france between 1978 and 1990 two flow equations are estimated as functions of exogenous factors such as aggregate demand factor costs structural shifts and long term factors and then used in simulations for the level of unemployment it is shown that the main reason for high unemployment in france is a slow down in the demand for labour due to high labour and energy costs in the early 1980s and to tight aggregate demand over the whole period change in the labour supply have had an increasing impact in recent years

testing for hysteresis against nonlinear alternatives abstract a number of studies have hypothesised certain economic behaviour to be hysteretic but few have actually been able to establish hysteretic behaviour in the data this is because of the lack of an effective test for hysteresis this paper compares and contrasts two new measures of hysteretic behaviour designed explicitly for detecting hysteresis in economic systems using monte carlo techniques we show that one has considerably more power than the other against nonlinear cyclical or multiple equilibria alternatives in the presence of random disturbances the key properties of this measure appear to be functional form independence and rate independence

gender biases in bank lending lessons from microcredit in france the evidence on gender discrimination in lending remains controversial to capture gender biases in banks loan allocations we observe the impact on the applicants of a microfinance institution mfi and exploit the natural experiment of a regulatory change imposing a strict eur 10 000 loan ceiling on microcredit descriptive statistics indicate that the presence of the ceiling is associated both with bank mfi co financing and with harsher treatment of female borrowers to investigate causal links we develop an econometric approach that addresses the concerns of selection biases multicollinearity and endogeneity our empirical findings suggest that the change in the mfi s gender related attitude was triggered by banks through co financing hence we speculate that co financing pushes ceiling constrained mfis to import whatever biases in loan granting that the banks are prone to overall this paper stresses that apparently benign regulations such as loan ceilings can significantly harm the women s empowerment efforts made by mfis

does racial prejudice affect black entrepreneurship evidence exploiting spatial differences in prejudicial attitudes abstractthis article explores the relationship between racial prejudice towards blacks and the black white self employment rate gap and provides the first direct empirical evidence that racial prejudice negatively impacts black self employment particularly in high start up cost industries to perform this analysis i construct a measure of prejudicial attitudes using responses from the general social survey and estimate the relationship between self employment and this index using the american community survey i find that an amount of prejudice equal to the difference in least and most prejudiced census divisions increases the black white self employment rate gap in high start up cost industries by 10 4 16 8 depending upon whether parental self employment is controlled for and represents the entire impact of racial prejudice on the black white self employment rate gap additionally racial prejudice widens the black white self employment income gap by between 6 4 and 8 2 in my full specification d

mortgage lending in boston interpreting hmda data the home mortgage disclosure act was enacted to monitor minority and low income access to the mortgage market the data collected for this purpose show that minorities are more than twice as likely to be denied a mortgage as whites yet variables correlated with both race and creditworthiness were omitted from these data making any conclusion about race s role in mortgage lending impossible the federal reserve bank of boston collected additional variables important to the mortgage lending decision and found that race continued to play an important though significantly diminished role in the decision to grant a mortgage copyright 1996 by american economic association

who is credit constrained in the u s economy an important assumption of the life cycle model of consumption is the postulate of perfect capital markets this hypothesis has recently been challenged by substantial empirical evidence hall and mishkin 1982 using the panel study of income dynamics estimate that 20 percent of united states families are liquidity constrained mariger 1986 derives a life cycle model with endogenous liquidity constraints and using a cross section estimates this fraction to be 19 4 percent hubbard and judd 1986 simulate a model with a constraint on net worth which shows that with reasonable assumptions about preferences 19 0 percent of united states consumers are liquidity constrained the emerging consensus points therefore to a fraction of approximately 20 percent of the population behaving in a manner that is inconsistent with the pure life cycle model in addition hayashi 1985 and zeldes 1989 investigate the correlation among consumption wealth and income for various population groups and infer that liquidity constraints are more important for younger families with low levels of wealth and saving the main limitation of these studies is that in their data sets constrained consumers are not observable and have to be identified via indirect evidence thus there is as yet little firm evidence about the characteristics of the consumers who are likely to be credit constrained this paper adopts an approach that differs from previous tests for liquidity constraints because it makes use of data where constrained consumers are observable and explicitly links their existence to credit market imperfections and personal characteristics the data drawn from the 1983 survey of consumer finances scf and described in section ii provide information on individuals whose request for credit has been rejected by financial intermediaries in section iii a model is developed in which consumers and lenders behavior jointly determines the probability that a consumer is rationed in the credit market this probability is then

entrepreneurial finance credit cards and race this paper examines the impact of financial deregulation on entrepreneurship we assess the impact of credit card deregulation on transitions into self employment using state level removal of credit card interest rate ceilings following the us supreme court s 1978 marquette decision as a quasi natural experiment we find that credit card deregulation increases the probability of entrepreneurial entry with a particularly strong effect for black entrepreneurs we demonstrate that these effects are magnified in states with a history of racial discrimination and link the results to discriminationbased barriers to entry 2012 elsevier b v all rights reserved

discrimination in the small business credit market we use data from the 1993 and 1998 national surveys of small business finances to examine the existence of racial discrimination in the small business credit market we conduct an econometric analysis of loan outcomes by race and find that black owned small businesses are about twice as likely to be denied credit even after controlling for differences in creditworthiness and other factors a series of specification checks indicates that this gap is unlikely to be explained by omitted variable bias these results indicate that the racial disparity in credit availability is likely caused by discrimination

government partisanship labor organization and macroeconomic performance governments of the left and right have distinct partisan economic policies and objectives that they would prefer to pursue their propensity to do so however is constrained by their desire for reelection we argue that the ability of governments to further their partisan interests and preside over reelectable macroeconomic outcomes simultaneously is dependent on the organization of the domestic economy particularly the labor movement we hypothesize that there are two different paths to desirable macroeconomic performance in countries with densely and centrally organized labor movements leftist governments can promote economic growth and reduce inflation and unemployment conversely in countries with weak labor movements rightist governments can pursue their partisan preferred macroeconomic strategies and achieve similarly beneficial macroeconomic outcomes performance will be poorer in other cases these hypotheses are supported by analysis of pooled annual time series data for 16 advanced industrial democracies between 1967 and 1984

an analysis on the structural stability of okun s law a cross country study okun s law postulates an inverse relationship between movements of the unemployment rate and the real gross domestic product gdp this article investigates okun s law for 15 oecd countries and checks for its the structural stability by using data on employment and the labour force whether structural instability is caused either from the demand side or supply side is inferred

testing steady state implications for the nairu estimates of the nairu are usually derived either from a phillips curve or from a wage curve this paper investigates the correspondence between the operational nairu concepts and the steady state of a dynamic wage price model we derive the parameter restrictions that secure that correspondence the full set of restrictions can be tested by econometric analysis of the wage price system and this method is demonstrated for norwegian data a set of necessary conditions can be tested from estimated wage curves alone existing international evidence from empirical wage equations are reinterpreted in light of these conditions

the effect of liquidity constraints on consumption a cross sectional analysis this paper examines the effect of liquidity constraints on consumption expenditures using a single year cross section data set a reduced form equation for consumption is estimated on high saving households by the tobit procedure to account for the selectivity bias since high saving households are not likely to be liquidity constrained the estimated equation is an appropriate description of how desired consumption that would be forthcoming without liquidity constraints is related to the variables available in the cross section data when the reduced form equation is used to predict desired consumption the gap between desired consumption and measured consumption is most evident for young households

racial discrimination in umpire voting an arguably unexpected result abstractusing data from an official most valuable player award in professional sport we test for the presence of discrimination by match officials umpires who are responsible for ranking the top three players within each match these umpires are found to award significantly more votes to and have a higher probability of voting for players identified as australian indigenous after controlling for within match production the result offers further evidence on racial discrimination and runs counter to numerous analogous studies both in sport as well as in labour and other socio economic outcomes in general

has the community reinvestment act increased loan availability among small businesses operating in minority neighbourhoods the 1977 community reinvestment act cra established a bold agenda requiring financial institutions in the usa to serve the credit needs of low and moderate income areas including traditionally excluded minority residential areas initially opposed by both bankers and the federal regulatory authorities responsible for enforcement the cra has been contentious for decades this study explores cra impacts by investigating whether small businesses located in minority neighbourhoods have the same degree of bank loan access as equally creditworthy firms located in other environs we analysed both the unmet credit needs of small firms and the outcomes of their loan applications we found that equality in loan access has been attained in some respects indicating the cra has had positive effects on loan availability inequality nonetheless persists regarding unmet credit needs firms are penalised if their owners are african american latino or asian american since roughly half of owners in minority communities are minorities our challenge was to disentangle the effects on loan access of small business geographic location versus owner race causal factors underlying our findings were investigated did bank regulators take the initiative in lessening traditional discriminatory lending practices alternatively were activist community groups responsible while the agenda advocated by activist groups coincides closely with actual gains the overlapping but differing stated objectives of regulators did not

a behavioral explanation for nominal wage rigidity during the great depression nominal wages in manufacturing were left unchanged by the large decline in nominal demand that marked the first two years of the great depression this rigidity in nominal wages is explained using the tools of the behavioral theory of the firm the emphasis is on the reasons firms changed their decision rules linking fluctuations in final sales to changes in nominal wages

the u s phillips curve the case for asymmetry abstract recent statistical rejections of convexity in the phillips curve have been uninformative because researchers have employed measures of business cycle gaps that are inconsistent with the implications of convexity the paper shows that identifying convexity in the phillips curve will become even more difficult if policymakers are successful in avoiding large boom and bust cycles to the extent that convexity in the phillips curve is used as a rationale for stabilization policy our findings present an interesting conundrum because successful policymakers will further weaken the empirical evidence on which such policies are based

ethnic matching in the u s venture capital market we document the role of entrepreneurial founder and venture capital vc partner co ethnicity in shaping investment relationships co ethnicity increases the likelihood that a vc firm invests in a company conditional on investment co ethnicity strengthens the degree of involvement by raising the likelihood of vc board of director involvement and increasing the size and scope of investment these results are consistent with trust and social network based mechanisms shared ethnicity in our sample is associated with worse investment outcomes as measured by investment liquidity however which our results suggest might stem from looser screening and or corporate governance

asymmetric effects of money supply shocks and trend inflation in recent years a number of empirical studies have presented evidence that money supply shocks have asymmetric effects that is unexpected negative changes in the money supply slow the economy more than unexpected positive changes accelerate the economy evidence of asymmetry was documented by cover 1992 for the postwar u s economy and his finding was confirmed by de long and summers 1988 morgan 1993 rhee and rich 1995 and karras 1996a b stimulated by these empirical works several attempts have been made to provide microeconomic foundations for the asymmetric effects of money supply shocks 1 among those theories this paper examines the one that focuses on asymmetric price adjustment and let us call it a sticky price theory money supply shocks will have asymmetric effects on real output if prices are less flexible downward than upward this sticky price theory was proposed by tsiddon 1993 ball and mankiw 1994 and caballero and engel 1992 by employing a menu cost model the above researchers show that positive trend inflation can produce the asymmetric effects of money supply shocks the logic of their theory is the following along with price adjustment costs positive trend infla

unemployment vacancies and the long term unemployed this paper is concerned with two related features of the labor market the ratio of long term to total unemployment r and the relat ionship between unemployment and vacancies the u v curve a model is developed to explain r in terms of the average probability that an unemployed person will find a job within a particular time period when the authors add the empirically confirmed hypothesis that this exit probability is lower for the long term than it is for the short term unemployed the n the model is consistent with the observed pattern of unemployment copyright 1988 by royal economic society

forecasting the depression harvard versus yale was the depression forecastable after the crash how long should it have taken contempo rary forecasters to realize how severe the downturn was going to be these questions are addressed by studying the predictions of the harv ard economic service and yale s irving fisher during 1929 and the ear ly 1930s the data assembled by the harvard and yale forecasters tog ether with modern historical data are subjected to statistical analy sis to learn whether their verbal pronouncements were consistent with the data both the harvard and yale forecasters were systematically too optimistic yet nothing in the data suggests that the optimism w as unwarranted copyright 1988 by american economic association

an empirical analysis of the unemployment duration of school leavers unemployment is a waste of vaulable human resources which also imposes various economics medical and psychological costs on the individual these costs are likely to be greater the longer the duration of umemployment this is true for both prime aged workers and the youngest entrants to the labour market that is school leavers using careers service data on 1979 1980 and 1981 leavers the authors seek to shed light on the issue of what factors determine the duration of unemployment for minimum aged school leavers the way in which these factors can be used by the careers service to identify those school leavers who have a higher risk of long term unemployment is discussed and a number of strategies for helping this group are outlined the results show that after allowing for the distorting influence of the youth opportunities programme longer durations of unemployment are associated with an absence of work experience low to intermediate qualifications and other personality traits

the impact of entrepreneurship programs on minorities we document the impact of an entrepreneurship training program on startup activity of minorities females and non caucasians we compare entrepreneurial activity between applicants who are accepted into the program with applicants who are program finalists but not accepted we find that the effect of the program is small for minorities in the short run however the effect of the program is more pronounced for minorities likelihood of longer run startup activity whereas the effect on non minorities is small and statistically insignificant we suggest that such programs are most effective for individuals that may otherwise have limited access to entrepreneurial opportunities

mortgage lending to minorities where s the bias this paper examines mortgage lending and concludes that studies based on data created by the boston fed should be reevaluated a detailed examination of these data indicates that irregularities in these data when combined with the most commonly used research methodology appear to have biased previous research toward a finding of discrimination against minority applicants when the most severe data irregularities are eliminated evidence to support a hypothesis of discrimination disappears the currently fashionable flexible underwriting standards of mortgage lenders may have the unintended consequences of increasing defaults for the beneficiaries of these policies

economies of scale and the demand for money cross sectional data from four surveys of small business finance demonstrate that economies of scale in money holding exist that these economies appear to be increasing over time and that the magnitudes are greater than those estimated for large us corporations firms not practising several specific cash management techniques and firms facing constraints in the credit market hold lower money balances minority owned firms exhibit economies of scale similar to the overall sample but cash management practices and credit constraint variables generally do not influence their money holding behavior scale economies vary widely across industries but overall means are relatively stable over time

does anticipated monetary policy matter an econometric investigation a heated debate has arisen over the policy ineffectiveness proposition associate with the work of lucas sargent and wallace it postulates that anticipated aggregate demand policy will have no effect on business cycle fluctuations so that one deterministic feedback policy rule is as good as any other from the point of view of stabilizing the economy this paper develops a methodology for empirically analyzing rational expectations models displaying this neutrality result and then applies it to the important question of whether anticipated monetary policy matters to the business cycle

are minority owned businesses underserved by financial markets evidence from the private equity industry our study addresses a longstanding question whether discrimination exists in financial markets although empirical evidence demonstrating disparate treatment of minorities is vast studies have inadequately explained why minority customers seeking financing are targeted for discriminatory treatment we develop a theoretical framework explaining why profit maximizing capital suppliers may choose to offer minority clients worse terms than those provided to comparable white customers our framework stresses search costs and reservation prices we then test this by comparing the relative profitability of investing private equity in minority and white owned small firms an approach advocated by gary becker using three empirical tests we consistently find the financial returns derived from investing in minority firms exceed those of white firm investments conducting becker s test in this instance indicates that disparate treatment of minority clients does not result in loss of profitable investing opportunities for private equity funds but instead higher profits

what is new keynesian economics this research was supported by the national science foundation i am grateful to george williams for help with the data and to steven allen laurence ball olivier j blanchard timothy bresnahan charles calomiris dennis carlton robert chirinko russell cooper stanley fischer herschel grossman r glenn hubbard david laidler john leahy assar lindbeck n gregory mankiw david romer julio rotemberg dennis snower john taylor andrew weiss and two anonymous referees for comments on one or more earlier drafts i am also indebted to michael parkin and edmund s phelps for helping to establish the etymology of the phrase new keynesian

prices during the great depression was the deflation of 1930 1932 really unanticipated this paper examines inflationary expectations in order to investigate whether the deflation of 1930 32 could have been anticipated the major conclusion is that beginning in late 1930 and possibly as early as late 1929 deflation could have been anticipated at horizons of three six months this implies in turn that short run ex ante real interest rates were very high during the initial phases of the great depression these results provide further support for the proposition that monetary contraction was the driving force behind the economic decline copyright 1992 by american economic association

a theory of trickle down growth and development this paper develops a model of growth and income inequalities in the presence of imperfect capital markets and it analyses the trickle down effect of capital accumulation moral hazard with limited wealth constraints on the part of the borrowers is the source of both capital market imperfections and the emergence of persistent income inequalities three main conclusions are obtained from this model first when the rate of capital accumulation is sufficiently high the economy converges to a unique invariant wealth distribution second even though the trickle down mechanism can lead to a unique steady state distribution under laissez faire there is room for government intervention in particular redistribution of wealth from rich lenders to poor and middle class borrowers improves the production efficiency of the economy both because it brings about greater equality of opportunity and also because it accelerates the trickle down process third the process of capital accumulation initially has the effect of widening inequalities but in later stages it reduces them in other words this model can generate a kuznets curve

accounting for the great depression economists have offered many theories for the u s great depression but no consensus has formed on the main forces behind it here we describe and demonstrate a simple methodology for determining which theories are the most promising we show that a large class of models including models with various frictions are equivalent to a prototype growth model with time varying efficiency labor and investment wedges that at least on face value look like timevarying productivity labor taxes and investment taxes we use u s data to measure these wedges feed them back into the prototype growth model and assess the fraction of the fluctuations in 1929 39 that they account for we find that the efficiency and labor wedges account for essentially all of the decline and subsequent recovery investment wedges play at best a minor role this article originally appeared in the american economic review american economic association

mortgage lending in boston a reconsideration of the evidence i introduction discrimination in the marketplace is often measured using statistical methods in order for the results to be interpretable as some form of discrimination it is necessary that these methods be firmly based on economic theories as to how these markets function the reason for this is that it is easy to confuse voluntary acts of segregation from involuntary acts of discrimination by the simple examination of statistical entrails the former is presumably acceptable to society whereas the latter is not any society that values its freedoms will want to ensure that a mis classification of the former as evidence of the latter is avoided claims of racial discrimination in mortgage lending provide an excellent arena to illustrate the issues that arise in statistically measuring discrimination in the united states data on mortgage applications has been collected for several years under the home mortgage disclosure act hmda these data show a persistent tendency for blacks to be denied mortgages at a greater rate than whites leading many political commentators to claim that they prove the existence and severity of racial discrimination one problem with the statistical measurement of discrimination is that the available data are often inadequate the hmda data has been criticized for not collecting all of the information germane to the loan decision such as the credit history or personal characteristics of the loan applicant and co applicant the argument is that blacks are denied loans more than whites because of these characteristics rather than the color of their skin whether or not this in turn reflects prior or concurrent racial discrimination in other markets e g in employment or housing or education is an intriguing question with important implications for policy reform in mortgage lending regulations 1 in an effort to address these concerns the federal reserve bank of boston undertook to augment the basic hmda data in the boston area with ancillary data on loan applicants see munnell et al 1992 1996 the vast bulk of these extra data were collected from the original loan application file at the bank of original application indicating that the information was viewed by the bank as relevant to the loan decision the boston fed study found that allowing for the characteristics of black applicants reduced the statistical importance of the applicant s race but that some racial discrimination remained specifically they find that black and hispanic applicants are roughly 60 more likely to be turned down just because of their ethnic origin the denial rate in this sample is about 17 for such applicants rather than the 11 denial rate for statistically equivalent whites although the study has been the subject of some controversy in the popular press 2 and policy circles 3 it remains an important effort to address these issues by directly collecting the primary data there are however some problems with the way in which these data are interpreted by munnell et al 1992 1996 these problem concern their statistical methods even if one accepts the economic model of mortgage lending decisions underlying their study simple corrections to their statistical procedures removes any evidence of discrimination an important conclusion echoing the boston fed study itself is to point out the dangers of drawing inferences about discrimination based on incomplete data moreover the simple statistical corrections considered here are the standard fare of textbooks and not from the fancy frontiers of econometrics hence it is likely to be useful in general to see why those textbook lessons are there by having them demonstrated explicitly in an important policy setting ii replicating the boston fed results the boston fed study began with the existing hmda database for mortgage applications in the boston area for 1990 4 the fed requested that banks augment their hmda reports for all applications made by blacks and hispanics and by a random sample of applications made by whites

enriching a theory of wage and promotion dynamics inside firms in previous work we showed that a model that integrates job assignment human capital acquisition and learning can explain several empirical findings concerning wage and promotion dynamics inside firms in this article we extend that model in two ways first we incorporate schooling and derive further testable implications that we then compare with the available empirical evidence second and more important we show that introducing task specific human capital allows us to produce cohort effects we further argue that task specific human capital is a realistic concept and may have many important implications we also discuss limitations of our extended approach

minority entrepreneurship in twenty first century america prior to the 1970s minority owned small businesses were small in size and scope and common in only a few industry niches business owners were severely capital constrained lacking in higher education and training in skilled occupations the median owner today in contrast is college educated access to financing has expanded and opportunities to serve corporate and public sector clients are commonplace nearly 40 of all new firms created nationwide in 2015 were minority owned changing attitudes in mainstream society reduced traditional barriers true equality of opportunity among small minority and white owned firms of similar size and scope has nonetheless not been achieved this issue of small business economics examines lingering barriers impeding the development of a more vibrant minority business community focusing on access to financing and government procurement markets articles in this issue offer explicit analyses of enduring barriers along with explanations of adoptive strategic firm behavior appropriate for reducing those barriers

an examination of the asymmetric effects of money supply shocks in the pre world war i and interwar periods we test whether monetary shocks had asymmetric output effects before world war ii ball and mankiw 1994 show that expectations of persistent inflation under fiat money can explain why negative monetary shocks had larger effects than positive shocks after world war ii consistent with this explanation we find such asymmetry in the interwar period following the abandonment of the gold standard and before it when agents arguably anticipated this development we find no monetary asymmetry before world war i which is consistent with ball and mankiw 1994 because under a credible gold standard agents do not expect persistent inflation jel e31 es2

gender bias and credit access we extract an exogenous measure of gender bias from survey responses by descendants of u s immigrants on questions about the role of women in society we then use data on around 6 000 small business firms from 17 countries and find that in high gender bias countries female entrepreneurs are more likely to opt out of the loan application process and to resort to informal finance even though banks do not appear to actively discriminate against them these results are not driven by credit risk differences between female and male owned firms or by any idiosyncrasies in the set of countries in our sample

experience tenure and the perceptions of employers this paper examines how group based assessments concerning employee ability impact employee compensation the employer learns about worker ability through bayesian updating creating an additional channel for wage growth that is not available to those workers with only general labor market experience consistent with the model s predictions results from national longitudinal survey of youth nlsy indicate that black workers fare much better relative to white workers in returns to tenure than in returns to experience finally parameter estimates in the structural model suggest that employers initially undervalue black males but that their wages rise with learning by employers over time on average black males earn lower wages than white males just as average wages differ across many groups this paper examines one explanation for this wage gap the possibility that employers underestimate the ability of workers in one or more groups in particular this paper proposes a model that provides explicit predictions about the affect of employer s perceptions on workers returns to general experience and tenure on the job we then examine the wage growth of young males to see whether patterns are consistent with the model economic theory provides many other explanations for differences in wages across groups

competition small business financing and discrimination evidence from a new survey we analyze credit applications loan denials and interest rates paid by small businesses across owner gender race and ethnicity in addition we examine data from owners who said they did not apply for credit because they believed that their applications would have been turned down after controlling for a rich set of explanatory variables including personal and business credit histories substantial differences in denial rates between firms owned by african americans and white males remain moreover consistent with becker s classic theories 1957 we find evidence that increases in competition in the firm s local banking market reduces these differences