why are there still so many jobs the history and future of workplace automation in this essay i begin by identifying the reasons that automation has not wiped out a majority of jobs over the decades and centuries automation does indeed substitute for labor as it is typically intended to do however automation also complements labor raises output in ways that leads to higher demand for labor and interacts with adjustments in labor supply journalists and even expert commentators tend to overstate the extent of machine substitution for human labor and ignore the strong complementarities between automation and labor that increase productivity raise earnings and augment demand for labor changes in technology do alter the types of jobs available and what those jobs pay in the last few decades one noticeable change has been a polarization of the labor market in which wage gains went disproportionately to those at the top and at the bottom of the income and skill distribution not to those in the middle however i also argue this polarization is unlikely to continue very far into future the final section of this paper reflects on how recent and future advances in artificial intelligence and robotics should shape our thinking about the likely trajectory of occupational change and employment growth i argue that the interplay between machine and human comparative advantage allows computers to substitute for workers in performing routine codifiable tasks while amplifying the comparative advantage of workers in supplying problem solving skills adaptability and creativity

who receives the college wage premium assessing the labor market returns to degrees and college transfer patterns using data from the 1979 national longitudinal survey of youth we estimate wage models in which college educated workers are classified according to their degree attainment college type and college transfer status the detailed taxonomy produces modest improvements in explanatory power relative to standard specifications and reveals considerable heterogeneity in the predicted wages of college educated workers we find that transfer students receive an indirect wage benefit insofar as changing colleges allows them to earn a degree some transfer students receive an additional direct wage benefit presumably because switching schools increases their skill investment opportunities

estimating the bias due to measurement error in the economic returns to schooling evidence from the 1990 february current population survey abstract we use the february 1990 cps to construct a measurement error corrected estimate of the return to schooling our model yields a bias that ranges from 11 to 15 percent removing the bias raises the return from 8 to 9 percent both estimates are at the bottom of the range found in the literature

labor market returns to two and four year college the paper examines labor market returns to a two and four year college education analysis of the 1972 national longitudinal survey of youth observation that the average person who attended a two year college earned about 10 percent more than those without any college education comparison with the wages of those who attended a four year college education

economies of traffic density in the deregulated airline industry this article estimates a structural model of competition among hub and spoke airlines in order to measure the strength of economies of traffic density on individual route segments we find that economies of density were strong during the sample period fourth quarter 1985 stronger than previous estimates by douglas caves laurits christensen and michael tretheway derived from traditional cost function methods we also find that the airlines competitive behavior was far from collusive in the markets under study markets requiring a connection at a hub airport our structural model also provides plausible estimates of demand elasticities we use our estimates to provide a cost based rationale for the major changes in the structure of the industry following deregulation for example the increase in airport and industry wide concentration and the increase in competition at the city pair market level and to simulate the effects of a merger of airlines that share a hub

post secondary education in canada can ability bias explain the earnings gap between college and university graduates using the canadian general social survey we compute returns to post secondary education relative to high school unlike previous research using canadian data our data set allows us to control for ability selection into higher education we find strong evidence of positive ability selection into all levels of post secondary education for men and weaker positive selection for women since theability selection is stronger for higher levels of education particularly for university the difference in returns between university and college or trades education decreases slightly after accounting for ability bias however a puzzling large gap persists with university educated men still earning l education post secondaire au canada est ce que le differentiel d habilete peut expli quer les ecarts de gains entre les diplomes des colleges et des universites en utilisant les resultats de l enquete sociale generale au canada on calcule les rendements sur l education post secondaire par rapport a ceux sur l education secondaire contrairement aux travaux anterieurs sur les donnees canadiennes les donnees utilisees ici permettent de tenir compte des differentiels d habilete les resultats revelent un fort differentiel positif d habilete pour les hommes a tous les niveaux de l education post secondaire et un moin dre differentiel pour les femmes puisque ce differentiel est plus fort pour les plus hauts niveaux d education particulierement pour l universite la difference de rendements entre universites et colleges ou ecoles de metiers decroit quand on tient compte du differentiel d habilete cependant un large ecart residuel demeure et laisse perplexe les hommes avec une education universitaire gagnent encore plus de 20 de plus que ceux qui ont frequente les colleges et les ecoles de metiers apres normalisation pour le niveau d habilete

the higher returns to formal education for entrepreneurs versus employees how valuable is formal education for entrepreneurs income relative to employees and if the income returns to formal education are different for entrepreneurs vis a vis employees what might be a plausible explanation to explore these questions we analyze a large representative us panel we show that entrepreneurs have higher returns to formal education than employees we refer to this as the entrepreneurship returns puzzle we run post hoc analyses to explore a number of potential explanations of this puzzle indirectly our analysis indicates that the higher returns to formal education for entrepreneurs might be due to the fewer organizational constraints they face leading to more personal control over how to use their human capital compared to employees

strategic interactions and airline network morphology under demand uncertainty abstract in this paper we examine how strategic interactions affect airline network under demand uncertainty we develop a three stage duopoly game at stage 1 airlines determine their network structure linear versus hub and spoke at stage 2 they decide on their capacities at stage 3 firms compete in quantities the main feature of the model is that firms have to decide on network structure and capacities while facing demand uncertainty we show that while hubbing is efficient airlines may choose a linear network for strategic reasons furthermore we show that this structure softens competition by preventing contagion of competition across markets

in school work experience and the returns to schooling students often accumulate substantial work experience before leaving school because conventional earnings functions do not control for in school work experience their estimates of the return to schooling include the benefit of work experience gained along the way using data from the national longitudinal survey of youth i estimate wage models with and without controls for in school work experience the estimated schooling coefficients are 25 44 higher depending on how i control for ability bias when in school work experience is omitted than when it is included these findings indicate that conventional models significantly overstate the wage effects of school only

borrowing constraints college enrollment and delayed entry in this article i propose and estimate a dynamic model of education borrowing and work decisions of high school graduates i examine the effect of relaxing borrowing constraints on educational attainment by simulating increases in the amount students are permitted to borrow from government sponsored loan programs my results indicate that borrowing constraints have a small impact on attainment the removal of education related borrowing constraints raises bachelor s degree completion by 2 4 percentage points tuition subsidies are necessary to obtain larger increases i find that higher subsidies for average ability students are the most cost effective targeted tuition subsidies

steve jobs or no jobs entrepreneurial activity and performance among danish college dropouts and graduates are college dropouts successful entrepreneurs other than anecdotal evidence on illustrious college dropouts who managed to become self made billionaires there is only limited empirical evidence to answer this question this paper addresses this issue by investigating the relationship between college dropout or graduation and entrepreneurship activity as well as performance using information from the danish labor market register we identify college students whether these students graduate and if they registered a new venture we find that a larger share of dropouts starts a business but this reflects the endogeneity of the decision to exit from college on average becoming an entrepreneur does not allow dropouts to escape from their punishment in the labor market

are there civic returns to education abstract the hypothesized effects of educational attainment on adult civic engagement and attitudes provide some of the most important justifications for government intervention in the market for education in this study i present evidence on whether these externalities exist i assess and implement two strategies for identifying the effects of educational attainment one is based on the availability of junior and community colleges the other on changes in teen exposure to child labor laws the results suggest that educational attainment has large and statistically significant effects on subsequent voter participation and support for free speech i also find that additional schooling appears to increase the quality of civic knowledge as measured by the frequency of newspaper readership

building the stock of college educated labor half of college students drop out without completing a degree this paper establishes a causal link between college costs and degree completion i use quasi experimental methodology to analyze two state scholarship programs the programs increase the share of the exposed population with a college degree by three percentage points with stronger effects among women a cost benefit analysis indicates that the programs are socially efficient at rates of return to schooling as low as 5 percent even with the offer of free tuition many students continue to drop out suggesting tuition costs are not the only impediment to college completion

estimating tax noncompliance with evidence from unaudited tax returns this article estimates the degree of tax noncompliance using evidence from unaudited tax returns measurements of noncompliance are derived from the relationship between reported charitable contributions and reported income from wages and salary as compared to alternative reported income sources such as self employment farm and other small business income assuming that the source of one s income is unrelated to one s charitable inclinations and that the ratio of true income to taxable income does not vary by income source any difference in the relationship between charitable contributions and the source of income can be attributed to relative underreporting by the individual we find that the implied amount of noncompliance is significant and that it varies by source of income as well as between positive and negative values of each type of income tax evasion creates horizontal inequity and if opportunities for evasion are correlated with income complicates the attempt to achieve vertical equity evasion also imposes economic costs because taxpayers expend resources to facilitate evasion and the tax agency expends resources to contain it the equity and efficiency implications of tax evasion and optimal policy to address it depend on its magnitude and nature which for obvious reasons is difficult to ascertain this article contributes to that effort by developing a new method for estimating the extent and nature of tax noncompliance based on evidence from unaudited tax returns this evidence is derived from the relationship between reported charitable contributions and reported taxable income from various sources such as wages and salaries selfemployment nonfarm small business and farm income and is based on the assumptions that the source of one s income is unrelated to one s charitable inclinations and that the ratio of true income to taxable income does not vary by income source we find that the implied amount of noncompliance on non wageand salary income is substantial and that it varies among these sources of income as well as between positive and negative values of each type of income on average reported positive self employment nonfarm small business and farm income must be multiplied by a factor of 1 54 4 54 and 3 87 respectively in order to obtain true income even those individuals who report zero income for a specific income source but file the schedule for that source are estimated to have true positive income finally those households that report negative schedule income may actually have greater true income than those households that report positive income

factors affecting levels and growth rates in the wage rates of women evidence from nursing using data from two surveys of nurses 1981 and 1989 the study examines the factors affecting the levels and growth rates in the wage rates paid to women especially married women who were licensed as registered nurses our results indicate that the influence of such household characteristics as marital status age and number of children and spouse s characteristic tended to diminish over the 1980s the evidence further suggests that the penalties for frequent switches in employment state were larger at the end of the decade than at the beginning further wages paid to nurses with baccalaureates were statistically the same as those paid to nurses with lesser formal education the return to the baccalaureate appears to be in the form of the higher wages and salaries earned by those who obtain post baccalaureate degrees

the determinants of earnings a behavioral approach we survey the determinants of earnings and propose a framework for understanding labor market success we suggest that the advantages of the children of successful parents go considerably beyond the benefits of superior education the inheritance of wealth or the genetic inheritance of cognitive ability we suggest that noncognitive personality variables such as attitudes towards risk ability to adapt to new economic conditions hard work and the rate of time preference affect both earning and the transmission of economic status across generations

adaptation and vertical integration in the airline industry we explore patterns of vertical integration in the us airline industry major air lines subcontract portions of their network to regional partners which may or may not be owned we investigate if ownership economizes on ex post renego tiation costs we estimate whether airlines are more likely to use owned region als on city pairs with adverse weather which makes adaptation decisions more frequent and on city pairs that are more integrated into the major s network which raises the costs of having adaptation decisions resolved suboptimally our results suggest a robust empirical relationship between adaptation and vertical integration in this setting jel l14 l22 l24 l93 how do firms decide which transactions to carry out in house and which to procure through the market in response to this question a large theoretical literature has developed one branch of this literature transaction cost economics argues that integration may be a more efficient way to organize when contracts are incomplete and parties cannot easily switch trading partners oliver williamson 1975 1985 j under these conditions ex post renegotiation will be both nec essary and costly and as a result the transaction costs of market exchange may be substantial empirical studies testing this hypothesis have focused primarily on the effect of asset specific ity on vertical integration and have generally found a positive relationship 2 however as steven tadelis 2002 emphasizes holding asset specificity constant variation in transaction costs will also result from differences in transaction complexity complex transactions are associated with greater contractual incompleteness and in turn more costly haggling over ex post adaptation decisions yet relative to asset specificity the frequency of adaptation decisions as a determinant of vertical integration has received considerably less attention in the empirical literature 3

the labor market returns to community college degrees diplomas and certificates this article provides one of the first rigorous estimations of the labor market returns to community college certificates and diplomas as well as estimations of the returns to the more commonly studied associate s degrees using administrative data from kentucky we estimate panel data models that control for differences among students in precollege earnings and educational aspirations associate s degrees and diplomas have quarterly earnings returns of nearly 2 400 for women and 1 500 for men compared with much smaller returns for certificates there is substantial heterogeneity in returns across fields of study degrees diplomas and for women certificates correspond with higher levels of employment

estimating the labor market signaling value of the ged this paper tests the labor market signaling hypothesis for the general educational development ged equivalency credential using a unique data set containing ged test scores and social security administration ssa earnings data we exploit variation in ged status generated by differential state ged passing standards to identify the signaling value of the ged net of human capital effects our results indicate that the ged signal increases the earnings of young white dropouts by 10 to 19 percent we find no statistically significant effects for minority dropouts

quantile treatment effects of college quality on earnings we use administrative data from texas to estimate how graduating from a state flagship or a community college relative to a nonflagship university affects the distribution of earnings we control for the selection of students across sectors using a rich set of observable ability and background characteristics and find evidence of substantial heterogeneity in the returns to quality returns increase with earnings among ut austin graduates but decline among texas a m graduates for community colleges returns are negative for lower earners but go to zero for higher earners our estimates also point to differences in the distribution of returns by race ethnicity

the impact of entrepreneurship education on entrepreneurship skills and motivation this paper analyzes the impact of a leading entrepreneurship education program on college students entrepreneurship skills and motivation using an instrumental variables approach in a difference in differences framework we exploit that the program was offered to students at one location of a school but not at another location of the same school location choice and thereby treatment is instrumented by the relative distance of locations to parents place of residence the results show that the program does not have the intended effects the effect on students self assessed entrepreneurial skills is insignificant and the effect on the intention to become an entrepreneur is even negative

estimates of the black economy based on consumer demand approaches we propose a consumer demand system approach to estimating the size of the black economy where alternative hypotheses affecting the empirical results can be tested in a nested framework this approach allows for the estimation of the under reporting of household income from various sources dispensing with the need to use arbitrary criteria to classify households by their main source of income it also avoids potential bias in black economy estimates arising from mistaking preference heterogeneity substitution as income effects we illustrate these arguments by estimating the extent to which self employment income in the uk is underreported using parametric and nonparametric techniques the black economy broadly defined as the economic activities that are hidden from public authorities to avoid taxation has recently received increased attention in the literature due to arguments that the rising tax burden and state regulation is driving economic activity underground tanzi and schuknecht 1997 enste and schneider 1998 the usefulness of attempts to estimate the size of the black economy however is a controversial issue the sceptics emphasise the difficulties associated with the precise definition of black economy activities and point to the widely different estimates of the size of these activities resulting from alternative methods dixon 1999 tanzi 1999 thomas 1999 authors approaching the subject in an optimistic frame of mind emphasise positive aspects of estimating the size of the black economy such as the correct measurement of gdp and other macroeconomic variables e g employment and the design of policy and econometric models bhattacharyya 1999 giles 1999 the controversy on estimation issues however does not subtract from the widespread concern about the undesired consequences of the black economy undeclared economic activities reduce the tax base thereby undermining the financing of public goods and social protection a country trying to curtail the loss of tax revenue by raising tax rates can create a vicious cycle as this reinforces the incentive not to declare economic activities to the public authorities high tax rates have a distorting effect resulting in inefficient allocation of resources due to unequal opportunities and willingness to evade in different sectors of the economy and can undermine the ability of the country to compete internationally distortions in the labour market can also arise because individuals working in the black economy may have difficulty in moving from one job to another furthermore in countries where health pension and other social security payments are not universal individuals working in the black economy and their families are outside the

the effect of price shocks on undocumented students college attainment and completion we examine the effect of a price shock caused by the temporary removal of in state tuition benefits on the attainment of undocumented immigrants enrolled in a large urban college system using a difference in differences identification strategy the 113 one semester tuition increase led to an 8 decrease in reenrollment and a similarly sized reduction in credit accumulation for students who had been enrolled at least a year prior to the policy change the price hike caused them to leave college sooner but did not increase their probability of dropping out conversely students who entered college the semester prior to the policy change experienced lasting reductions in attainment including a 22 decrease in degree receipt compared to students with more college experience at the time of the price shock our results suggest that public subsidies that lower college prices can increase degree completion among resource constrained students who have made the decision to enroll in college with larger benefits accruing to those who are early in their college careers

a human capital model of the effects of ability and family background on optimal schooling levels this paper develops a theoretical model of optimal schooling levels where ability and family background are the central explanatory variables we derive schooling demand and supply functions based on individual wealth maximization using nlsy79 data we stratify our sample into one year fte work experience cohorts for 1985 1989 mincer s 1974 overtaking cohort the years of work experience at which individuals observed earnings approximately equal what they would have been based on schooling and ability alone corresponds to 13 fte years of work experience yielding on average a rate of return of 9 6 percent and an average optimal 11 4 years of schooling

the effect of housing wealth on college choice evidence from the housing boom we use nlsy97 data to examine how home price variation affects the quality of postsecondary schools students attend we find a 10 000 increase in housing wealth increases the likelihood of public flagship university enrollment relative to nonflagship enrollment by 2 0 percent and decreases the relative probability of attending a community college by 1 6 percent these effects are driven by lower income families predominantly by altering student application decisions we also find home price changes affect direct quality measures of institutions students attend furthermore for lower income students each 10 000 increase in home prices leads to a 1 8 percent increase in the likelihood of completing college

post secondary fees and the decision to attend a university or a community college abstract this paper examines the effect that post secondary fees have on a potential student s decision to start his or her college education at a university or a community college a theoretical model demonstrates that the student s decision follows a natural ordering that depends on his or her probability of graduation based on this natural ordering ordered probit is used to estimate the effect of interstate variation in fees on student attendance the results indicate that the own price effects of fee increases are negative while the cross price effects are positive

minimum wage policy and community college enrollment patterns in this article the author studies the effect of the minimum wage on community college enrollment using cross border variation in state minimum wages to address spatial correlation in local labor

optimal timing of college subsidies enrollment graduation and the skill premium abstract the large increase in the skill premium has led many policy makers to propose increasing college subsidies as a strategy to increase college enrollment and reduce inequality existing analyses typically assume that there is no distinction between enrollment and graduation but in fact more than 50 of college enrollees do not graduate this highlights the need to explicitly model the decision to drop out in assessing the effect of subsidies i build a general equilibrium model of education choice that features an explicit dropout decision calibrate it to match key features of the us economy and use it to evaluate the impact of college subsidies on the supply of college educated labor i show that moving to a system in which subsidies are back loaded i e higher for juniors and seniors than for freshmen and sophomores will increase the supply of college educated labor even holding total subsides constant in fact this effect is larger than what would be accomplished by a uniform 50 increase in subsidies

estimates of the economic returns to schooling from a new sample of twins this paper uses a new survey to contrast the wages of genetically identical twins with different schooling levels multiple measurements of schooling levels were also collected to assess the effect of reporting error on the estimated economic returns to schooling the data indicate that omitted ability variables do not bias the estimated return to schooling upward but that measurement error does bias it downward adjustment for measurement error indicates that an additional year of schooling increases wages by 12 to 16 percent a higher estimate of the economic returns to schooling than has been previously found copyright 1994 by american economic association

community college enrollment college major and the gender wage gap the literature on the narrowing of the gender wage gap during the 1980s considers among other factors the closing of the male female differential in post secondary education this paper looks specifically at the role played by the dramatic relative increase in women s enrollment in two year colleges with independent cross sections developed using nlsy data the authors find that the gender wage gap narrowed by 0 0469 log points between 1985 and 1990 and by 0 0932 log points between 1989 and 1994 the more pronounced decrease observed for 1989 94 is largely explained by erosion of male female differences in weeks worked job tenure and full time employment a more novel finding is evidence that while change in the quantity of education provides essentially no explanatory power disaggregating education by two year and four year providers and by major field of study accounts for 8 5 11 of the closing of the wage gap over the 1989 94 period

career technical education and labor market outcomes evidence from california community colleges career technical education cte programs at community colleges are increasingly seen as an attractive alternative to four year colleges yet little systematic evidence exists on the returns to specific certificates and degrees we estimate returns to cte programs using administrative data from the california community college system linked to earnings records we employ estimation approaches including individual fixed effects and individual specific trends and find average returns to cte certificate and degrees that range from 14 to 45 percent the largest returns are for programs in the healthcare sector estimated returns in non health related programs range from 15 to 23 percent end page 986 abstract from author

are educated workers really more productive abstract this paper presents a new method for examining the productive nature of education it outlines an econometric model which simultaneously estimates an earnings function and a production function for workers and the firms where they are employed this approach permits a direct comparison to be made between the relative wage and relative productivity of workers with different levels of education using a unique data set from ghana two primary questions are addressed 1 are educated workers more productive than workers with no formal education and 2 do earnings differentials between workers with different levels of education reflect genuine productivity differentials the results suggest that education is positively correlated with productivity in ghanaian manufacturing and that firms pay workers according to their productivity

estimating marginal returns to education this paper estimates marginal returns to college for individuals induced to enroll in college by different marginal policy changes the recent instrumental variables literature seeks to estimate this parameter but in general it does so only under strong assumptions that are tested and found wanting we show how to utilize economic theory and local instrumental variables estimators to estimate the effect of marginal policy changes our empirical analysis shows that returns are higher for individuals with values of unobservables that make them more likely to attend college we contrast our estimates with iv estimates of the return to schooling

heterogeneous economic returns to post secondary degrees evidence from chile we analyze the economic returns to post secondary degrees in chile we posit a schooling decision model with unobserved ability degree specific tuition costs and earnings we use administrative records to carry out our empirical analysis our results show positive average returns to post secondary education especially for five year degrees however we also uncover significant heterogeneity we document how unobserved characteristics ability determine the economic benefits of first and second best choices even leading to negative returns to post secondary degrees our findings illustrate the importance of allowing for heterogeneous treatment effects and individuals choices when examining the returns to education

why are the returns to schooling higher for women than for men many studies have found that the impact of schooling on earnings is greater for females than for males despite the fact that females tend to earn less both absolutely and controlling for personal characteristics this study investigates possible reasons for this effect using data from the national longitudinal survey of youth 1979 one explanation is that education appears to have a double effect on the earnings of women it increases their skills and productivity as it does with men and in addition it appears to reduce the gap in male and female earnings attributable to factors such as discrimination tastes and circumstances the latter appear to account for about half of the differential in the returns to schooling

does compulsory school attendance affect schooling and earnings we establish that season of birth is related to educational attainment because of school start age policy and compulsory school attendance laws individuals born in the beginning of the year start school at an older age and can therefore drop out after completing less schooling than individuals born near the end of the year roughly 25 percent of potential dropouts remain in school because of compulsory schooling laws we estimate the impact of compulsory schooling on earnings by using quarter of birth as an instrument for education the instrumental variables estimate of the return to education is close to the ordinary least squares estimate suggesting that there is little bias in conventional estimates every developed country in the world has a compulsory schooling requirement yet little is known about the effect these laws have on educational attainment and earnings 1 this paper exploits an unusual natural experiment to estimate the impact of compulsory schooling laws in the united states the experiment stems from the fact that children born in different months of the year start school at different ages while compulsory schooling laws generally require students to remain in school until their sixteenth or seventeenth birthday in effect the interaction of school entry requirements and compulsory schooling laws compel students born

the implicit taxes from college financial aid abstract families who earn more or who heed the experts advice and save for college typically receive less financial aid the financial aid system therefore implicitly taxes both income and assets we use npsas aid award data to estimate these implicit taxes and find that at average priced colleges the marginal income tax ranges from 2 to 16 and the marginal asset levy from 8 to 26 a typical family loses aid worth about 11 000 at average priced colleges and 15 000 at expensive colleges by accumulating an extra 50 000 in assets

on the optimal distribution of traffic of network airlines network airlines have increasingly focused their operations on hub airports through the exploitation of connecting traffic however in this paper we show that they may also have incentives to divert traffic away from their hubs more precisely we examine how the optimal distribution of traffic of network carriers can be affected by the two major recent innovations in the airline industry the regional jet technology and the low cost business model on the one hand we show that a network airline may find it profitable to serve thin point to point routes with regional jets when the distance between endpoints is sufficiently short and there is a high proportion of business travelers on the other hand we observe that a network airline may be interested in serving thin point to point routes by means of a low cost subsidiary when the distance between endpoints is longer and there is a high proportion of leisure travelers we conclude that network airlines are using those innovations to provide services on thin routes out of the hubs

semiparametric bayesian inference for dynamic tobit panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity summary this paper develops semiparametric bayesian methods for inference of dynamic tobit panel data models our approach requires that the conditional mean dependence of the unobserved heterogeneity on the initial conditions and the strictly exogenous variables be specified important quantities of economic interest such as the average partial effect and average transition probabilities can be readily obtained as a by product of the markov chain monte carlo run we apply our method to study female labor supply using a panel data set from the national longitudinal survey of youth 1979 copyright 2008 john wiley sons ltd

returns to education evidence from u k twins we use a new sample of uk female identical twins to estimate private economic returns to education we report findings in three areas first we use identical twins to control for family effects and genetic ability bias and the education reported by the other twin to control for schooling measurement error our estimates suggest a return to schooling for uk females of about 7 7 second we investigate within twin pair ability differences by examining within twin pair and between family correlations of education with observable correlates of ability including birthweight ability tests and reading scores our findings suggest lower ability bias in within twin pair regressions than pooled regressions third using data on twins smoking we show smoking reflects family background and using it as an instrument exacerbates ability bias this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

estimation of limited dependent variable models with dummy endogenous regressors applied economists have long struggled with the question of how to accommodate binary endogenous regressors in models with binary and nonnegative outcomes i argue here that much of the difculty with limited dependent variables comes from a focus on structural parameters such as index coefcients instead of causal effects once the object of estimation is taken to be the causal effect of treatment several simple strategies are available these include conventional two stage least squares multiplicative models for conditional means linear approximation of nonlinear causal models models for distribution effects and quantile regression with an endogenous binary regressor the estimation strategies discussed in the article are illustrated by using multiple births to estimate the effect of childbearing on employment status and hours of work

the economic returns to an mba because mba programs require work experience before admittance prior wages can be exploited to disentangle the return to the degree from unobserved productivity we find that controlling for individual fixed effects generally reduces the estimated returns to an mba particularly for those in top programs however for full time mba students attending schools outside of the top 25 the estimated returns are higher when we control for individual fixed effects we show that there is some evidence that those who take the gmat but do not obtain an mba are stronger in dimensions such as workplace skills that are not easily measured

the occupation industry mismatch new trajectories for regional cluster analysis and economic development this article is a natural extension of the current discussion on occupational clustering and economic growth it is argued that while there has been increased interest in the role of occupations

gainfully employed assessing the employment and earnings of for profit college students using administrative data we draw on population level administrative data from the u s department of education and the internal revenue service to quantify the impact of for profit college attendance on the employment and earnings of more than one million students using a matched comparison group difference in differences design we find that certificate seeking students in for profit institutions are 1 5 percentage points less likely to be employed and conditional on employment have 11 percent lower earnings after attendance than students in public institutions these results hold for both men and women and for seven of the top ten fields of study we find that earnings and employment outcomes are particularly poor for students attending for profit colleges that offer the majority of their courses online and for multicampus chains we find that for profit students experience small statistically insignificant gains in annual earnings after attendance compared to a matched end page 342 control group of young individuals who do not attend college a back of the envelope comparison of these earnings gains to average debt burdens suggests that for profit certificate programs do not pay off for the average student abstract from author

weighting recent performance to improve college and labor market outcomes abstract there is a great deal of policy interest in reducing college dropout rates increasing graduation rates and improving labor market outcomes to this end individual colleges and state university systems use high school grade point averages and class rankings in an effort to offer admission and scholarships to students who are most likely to achieve long run success however a significant fraction of students exhibit steep positive or negative performance trends during high school this study shows that academic performance in later grades is given no greater weight in admissions but is the best predictor of college and labor market outcomes greatly exceeding prior grades and entrance exam scores placing greater weight on later grades and extending application deadlines to allow the consideration of 12th grade performance is shown to significantly alter which students are admitted to college and to improve their expected long run outcomes importantly weighting recent performance does not appear to affect college diversity evidence is presented that the predictive power of later grades is driven primarily by students who experience large negative performance trajectories during high school

the more the merrier the effect of family size and birth order on children s education there is an extensive theoretical literature that postulates a tradeoff between child quantity and quality within a family however there is little causal evidence that speaks to this theory using a rich dataset on the entire population of norway over an extended period of time we examine the effects of family size and birth order on the educational attainment of children while we find a negative correlation between family size and children s education when we include indicators for birth order and or use twin births as an instrument family size effects become negligible in addition birth order has a significant and large negative effect on children s education we also study adult earnings employment and teenage childbearing and find strong evidence for birth order effects with these outcomes particularly among women these findings suggest the need to revisit economic models of fertility and child production focusing not only on differences across families but differences within families as well

way station or launching pad unpacking the returns to adult technical education abstract we estimate returns to diplomas and certificates awarded to adult students by public technology centers a niche sector of higher education that elevates occupational and competency based education over transferable credits and traditional degrees technology centers cater to nontraditional students particularly adults seeking part time training in specific skills sub associate credentials arising from tennessee colleges of applied technology increase access to new industries particularly health and industrial mobility explains half of the employment returns to postsecondary diplomas and at least three quarters of the earnings returns to certificates tcat diploma completers earn 707 1034 in additional quarterly earnings over non completers similar to the returns from community college diplomas benefits extend beyond the signal value of completion students who leave without a credential fare significantly better than matched non students with a similar history of earnings

creative differences measuring creative economy employment in the united states and the uk this paper compares the creative economies of the us and the uk regions and nations using high quality administrative microdata spanning the period 2011 13 the creative industries are highly urban

the contribution of associate s degree holders to u s earnings labor quality productivity and overall economic growth there is substantial evidence on the importance of education as a driver of earnings productivity and economic growth however knowledge of the specific role of associate s degrees in u s economic growth is limited we analyze the sources of u s economic growth and identify the contribution of associate s degree holders to improvements in earnings labor quality productivity and overall economic growth we find evidence that substitution toward workers with associate s degrees has increased u s earnings aggregate labor quality and productivity and that these effects are concentrated in the health care trade and government sectors while the average educational attainment of people entering the labor force has plateaued our results suggest that shifting workers from some college to associate degrees could improve earnings the quality of the workforce productivity and growth potentially without more time spent in school

estimating the variance of wages in the presence of selection and unobserved heterogeneity abstract identification of potential wage distributions by education is important to the study of the causal links between education inequality and uncertainty potential wage inequality within an educational group that is the variance in wages if all workers had the same education exceeds the observed statistics because self selected education truncates wage distributions decomposing potential wage inequality into heterogeneity known to the agent making the educational choice and uncertainty unknown to the agent suggests that wage uncertainty does not necessarily rise with education it is unobserved heterogeneity not uncertainty that explains the observed relationship between college graduation and higher wage inequality

the demand for and return to education when education outcomes are uncertain this article treats education as a sequential choice that is made under uncertainty a simple model is used to explore the effects of ability high school preparation preferences for schooling the borrowing rate and ex post payoffs to college on the probability of various post secondary college outcomes and the ex ante return to starting college the model motivates an empirical method of accounting for uncertainty about educational outcomes and for nonlinearity in the relationship between years of education and earnings when estimating the expected return to the first year of college

not whether but where pell grants and college choices abstract pell grants are the largest financial aid vehicle in the united states and yet their role in shaping students college choices is not clear drawing on the enrollment decisions of four cohorts of tennessee high school graduates and quasi experimental pell eligibility derived from federal formulas we find little evidence that marginal pell eligibility affects whether or where students enroll in college inframarginal estimates suggest that students sort into colleges with 11 6 cents higher tuition per dollar of pell aid although other measures of college quality do not significantly improve over the counterfactual an investigation into mechanisms that might be muting student responses to pell favors the application process itself over grant size or institutional aid flexibility

affirmative action and the quality fit trade off this paper reviews the literature on affirmative action in undergraduate education and law schools focusing especially on the trade off between institutional quality and the fit between a school and a student we discuss the conditions under which affirmative action for underrepresented minorities urm could help or harm their educational outcomes we provide descriptive evidence on the extent of affirmative action in law schools as well as a critical review of the contentious literature on how affirmative action affects urm law school student performance our review then discusses affirmative action in undergraduate admissions focusing on the effects such admissions preferences have on college quality graduation rates college major and earnings we conclude by examining the evidence on percent plans as a replacement for affirmative action

examining the formation of human capital in entrepreneurship a meta analysis of entrepreneurship education outcomes abstract effective human capital formation through the medium of entrepreneurship education and training eet is of increasing concern for governments as eet is growing rapidly across the world unfortunately there is a lack of consistent evidence showing that eet helps to create more or better entrepreneurs we undertake the first quantitative review of the literature and in the context of human capital theory find that there is indeed support for the value of eet based on 42 independent samples n 16 657 we find a significant relationship between eet and entrepreneurship related human capital assets r w 217 and entrepreneurship outcomes r w 159 the relationship between eet and entrepreneurship outcomes is stronger for academic focused eet interventions r w 238 than for training focused eet interventions r w 151 we find evidence of heterogeneity in many of our correlations and recommend that future studies examine potential moderators to more clearly delineate eet effect sizes we also find a number of methodological weaknesses among the studies analyzed and that those studies with lower methodological rigor are overstating the effect of eet recommendations to improve the quality of future work in the field are provided

estimating average and local average treatment effects of education when compulsory schooling laws really matter the change to the minimum school leaving age in the united kingdom from 14 to 15 had a powerful and immediate effect that redirected almost half the population of 14 year olds in the mid twentieth century to stay in school for one more year the magnitude of this impact provides a rare opportunity to a estimate local average treatment effects late of high school that come close to population average treatment effects ate and b estimate returns to education using a regression discontinuity design instead of previous estimates that rely on difference in differences methodology or relatively weak instruments comparing late estimates for the united states and canada where very few students were affected by compulsory school laws to the united kingdom estimates provides a test as to whether instrumental variables iv returns to schooling often exceed ordinary least squares ols because gains are high only for small and peculiar groups among the more general population i find instead that the benefits from compulsory schooling are very large whether these laws have an impact on a majority or minority of those exposed

returns to field of study versus school quality mba selection on observed and unobserved heterogeneity i introduction given the importance of human capital investment prospective college students and parents must often choose between higher quality and cost and lower quality and cost schools the considerable literature that has examined this trade off identifies not only school quality as a principal driver of postbaccalaureate earnings but also students choice over fields of study 1 despite the attention lavished on school rankings james et al 1989 for example conclude that college experience variables especially major explain more of the variance in earnings than measured family background ability and college characteristics combined 252 2 that is a prospective baccalaureate student can expect strong future earnings not only by attending a highly ranked institution but also by majoring in a highly rewarded field such as engineering the sciences or business at a lesser ranked school surprisingly this important conclusion about the trade off between content and quality has not been generalized to any other postsecondary degree programs such as associate degrees at community colleges or master s of education master s of business administration mba law medical or phd programs the goal of this article is to fill this void in the literature by estimating the returns to both program quality and fields of specialization in the context of graduate education specifically we estimate these returns for the third most commonly earned postsecondary degree the mba morgeson and nahrgang 2008 prior research has estimated a large drop off in returns to an mba beyond the nation s elite programs arcidiacono et al 2008 because of this and because mbas are likely to face significant opportunity costs of moving to attend a more highly ranked program than what may be available locally estimating the tradeoffs between returns to program quality and to fields of specialization is especially important for mbas in the data set used in this study the average mba student had about 6 yr of full time work experience half were married and 27 had children however if family and job ties restrict potential mba students from enrolling in more highly ranked programs might they nonetheless be able to earn high wage premiums by specializing their studies in fields with higher returns our study focuses on mba areas of concentration in response to competitive pressures and consumer demand many business schools have offered the opportunity for students to go beyond the core mba curriculum by tailoring additional coursework toward a particular area 3 in this way mba concentrations mirror the role of undergraduate majors unfortunately to our knowledge no entity such as the association of advance collegiate schools or business aacsb or the graduate management admissions council gmac systematically collects information about the specific courses that constitute areas of concentration by mba program the structure and actual courses included in concentrations within mba programs vary from school to school akin to differences among undergraduate business programs 4 however mba concentrations typically consist of four to five topical courses but range as high as seven or more according to dierdorff and rubin s 2008 survey of 576 of the 621 programs in the united states accredited by the aacsb 5 perhaps the main distinction between undergraduate and mba fields of study is that while most u s undergraduate business programs offer the full array of standard business fields that is general management finance accounting marketing management information systems mis and international business mba areas of concentration despite their increasing prevalence are more selectively offered by schools furthermore the presence of areas of concentration does not appear to be correlated with overall school quality suggesting that the quality of program attended and the choice of focus of study may be two independent drivers of increased earnings among graduates

transition to entrepreneurship from the public sector predispositional and contextual effects studies of career dynamics implicitly claim that government employees are not entrepreneurial utilizing longitudinal data from the u s panel study for income dynamics we investigate the reasons for the low rate of entrepreneurship from the public sector we conjecture that it is due to labor market matching processes and the bureaucratic nature of public organizations and bureaucratization of individuals our life course analysis identifies labor market matching as a major determinant nonentrepreneurial types choose public sector employment we also uncover tenure and context effects which decrease and increase the hazard rate of entrepreneurial exit respectively whereas the former effect points toward adaptation and internal labor market sorting the latter draws attention to exits due to frustration

the varied economic returns to postsecondary education new evidence from the class of 1972 this paper estimates the returns to postsecondary education using the national longitudinal survey of the class of 1972 with earnings measured at about age 32 the results are based on transcripts rather than self reports about the amount of education allowing postsecondary education to be more precisely described than usual the results confirm the well known returns to b a degrees other credentials associate degrees and certificates for women also lead to higher earnings and wage rates though indirectly these credentials gain individuals access to jobs where they accumulate more experience and on the job training but provide no further advantage once experience and ojt are controlled most individuals who enroll in postsecondary education but fail to complete credentials have no higher earnings than high school graduates the effects of experience high school achievement and family background are familiar the results indicate a fundamental difference between labor markets for college graduates and the sub baccalaureate labor market

immigration and the human capital of natives large low skilled immigration flows influence both the distribution of local school resources and also local relative wages which exert counterbalancing pressures on the local return to schooling i use the national education longitudinal study nels 88 and u s census data to show that low skilled immigration to an area induces local natives to improve their performance in school attain more years of schooling and take jobs that involve communication intensive tasks for which they native english speakers have a comparative advantage these results point out mechanisms that mitigate the potentially negative effect of immigration on natives wages