market structure and the intraday pattern of bid ask spreads for nasdaq securities this article examines the intraday pattern of bid ask spreads among nasdaq stocks we find that spreads are relatively stable throughout the day but narrow significantly near the close this contrasts with the u shaped pattern for nyse stocks reported by brock and kleidon and mcinish and wood we attribute these divergent patterns to structural differences between specialist and dealer markets the wider spreads for nyse stocks near periods of market closure may reflect the market power of specialists the decline in spreads near the close for nasdaq stocks is consistent with inventory control by individual dealers copyright 1995 by university of chicago press

transaction costs order placement strategy and existence of the bid ask spread by considering investor order placement strategy this paper demonstrates that transaction costs cause bid ask spreads to be an equilibrium property of asset markets with transaction costs the probability of a limit order executing does not go to unity as the order is placed infinitesimally close to a counterpart market quote thus with certainty of execution at the counterpart market quote a gravitational pull is generated that keeps counterpart quotes from being placed infinitesimally close to each other an equilibrium spread is defined and its size linked to market thinness implications are noted for the design of a trading system

how efficient is the substitution of debt for taxes in influencing demand a 52 country macro theoretic model is developed in order to test the ricardian view that debt and tax finance are equivalent the alternative traditional view is that government expenditures financed by tax revenue affect the economy in profoundly different ways than expenditures financed by bond issuance a rigorous testing of the model indicates that a present value preserving transfer of income from future generations affects the consumption of the current generations in a positive for solvent countries or negative for debt ridden countries way an explanation for this divergence in consumer s behaviour is attempted via the concept of debt illusion

fragmentation versus consolidation of securities trading evidence from the operation of rule 19c 3 stock exchanges defend their rules requiring members to trade listed stocks on an exchange floor as a means of achieving consolidation of trading which it is argued minimizes trading costs to investors by virtue of the securities and exchange commission s rule 19c 3 however these exchange rules cannot apply to stocks newly listed after april 26 1979 the objective of the securities and exchange commission rule was to end what was viewed as restraint of desirable competition that would more than compensate for any cost saving resulting from consolidation by comparing the cost of trading measured by bid ask spreads and returns variance for the two distinct groups of stocks those listed before april 26 1979 and those listed after we test these competing views we find that rule 19c 3 has not caused any reduction in spreads but may have caused an increase and has had no effect on returns variance

debt and taxes in the theory of public finance if a specified amount of government spending must be financed how should that finance be divided between taxes and government borrowing in the case of a temporary increase in government spending it has been argued that debt finance is optimal because the small increments in all future tax rates to finance interest payments involves a smaller excess burden than the single large tax rate increase that would be required to avoid an initial increase in the national debt this argument ignores the excess burden of debt finance that results if the initial capital stock is smaller than optimal e g because of taxes or capital income the first section of the present paper shows how the debt finance advantage of a small increase in tax rates can be explicitly balanced against the disadvantage of the excess burden that arises from additional debt the analysis shows that with plausible parameter values the excess burden of debt finance is likely to outweigh the advantage of avoiding a large single tax change and therefore that financing a temporary increase in government spending by an immediate tax increase is likely to be preferable to debt financing the second section examines the appropriate response to a permanent increase in government spending and shows that such spending cannot be financed by a permanent increase in government debt moreover whenever the golden rule level of capital intensity is an optimality condition independent of the level of government spending any increase in government spending should be matched by an equal increase in tax revenue this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

government deficits and the term structure of interest rates abstract this paper investigates the effects of government deficits on interest rates with different terms to maturities a nonlinear term structure model with a time varying term premium is presented as a vehicle to discuss the ricardian equivalence hypothesis it is found that the nonlinear term structure model of the equivalence hypothesis that allows for a time varying term premium and a conditional heteroskedasticity is compatible with the data and performs far better than does the linear model

government debt government spending and private sector behavior reply roger kormendi 1983 presents apparently strong evidence that in contrast to the standard view consumption is not reduced by taxes but is reduced by government expenditure he interprets his results as supporting a consolidated approach to private sector behavior in which consumers effectively internalize the government budget constraint specifically he claims that consumers regard government spending as the true measure of the government s claim on private resources and so do not respond to changes in taxes given spending this is basically the approach advocated by robert barro 1974 and known also as the ricardian equivalence proposition hereafter rep kormendi s results appears to contradict other empirical work based on the life cycle hypothesis for example martin feldstein 1982 modigliani 1984a sterling 1985 although results similar to his have been reported see david aschauer 1985 john seater and roberto mariano 1985 and the references in kormendi in our view kormendi s analysis is seriously flawed his heuristic derivation of the consumption function leads him to a specification of the aggregate consumption function which is not consistent with the life cycle hypothesis lch or with rep and to questionable methods of estimation once his conceptual and methodological errors are corrected his formulation and more generally the rep hypothesis are found to receive little empirical support in the next section we rely on the lch to derive an aggregate consumption function which shows explicitly how government expenditure and taxes should effect private consumption this derivation helps to bring out the observable implications of rep which are shown to be equivalent to a limiting form of the lch in which the planning horizon is infinite it also serves to clarify the appropriate specification of the variables appearing in the consumption function next section ii reports our empirical estimates and tests section iii compares our results with kormendi s finally section iv reports the results of endeavors to improve the specification of fiscal variables notably by distinguishing between permanent and transitory tax changes

consumption saving and fiscal policy when this year s nobel laureate robert solow and ely lecturer alan blinder teamed their impressive talents several years ago to ask does fiscal policy matter the answer they gave was a resounding yes working in a then sophisticated neo keynesian is lm tradition blinder and solow presented a parsimonious macroeconomic model and some statistical and historical evidence suggesting that changes in the weighted standardized government surplus did indeed substantially affect real economic activity the profession was pretty much convinced that the permanent income hypothesis pih or life cycle hypothesis lch almost provided a sufficient framework for analyzing consumption and saving and hence the effects of fiscal policy curiously the large keynesian effect of a tax induced rise in current disposable income was reconciled with the very small effect predicted by the longerhorizon models with more of a whimper than a bang since then the profession has moved some distance from complete acceptance of the life cycle and permanent income hypotheses and perhaps even further from the traditional consumption function specification in vogue at that time indeed robert barro 1974 rekindled the notion that a tax fordebt swap would have no real effects an avalanche of analytical and empirical research has sharpened our understanding of the issues involved the econometric difficulties in estimating the relevant parameters and even the care necessary in defining what is meant when one asks whether fiscal policy has any real economic effects surprisingly despite numerous caveats new and improved data and estimation techniques and improved perspectives offered by analytical insights not yet prevalent when blinder and solow wrote their paper my conclusion is that their answer is essentially correct fiscal policy does matter both for short run stabilization purposes and for long run capital accumulation i believe the preponderance of the evidence strongly supports this view although the empirical research suggests that the impact of say tax cuts on consumption is perhaps only one third as large as the typical keynesian estimate of two decades ago but much larger than the neutrality predicted by ricardian equivalence or the very small effect predicted by the pih or lch

soes trading and market volatility the national association of security dealers alleges that professional trader use of the small order execution system soes causes greater security price volatility we docu ment bidirectional granger causality between a proxy for professional soes trading the frequency of maximum sized soes trades and a measure of stock price volatility we find that high levels of volatility precede high levels of maximum sized soes trades suggesting that volatility causes more frequent large soes trades likewise over a one minute time interval high levels of maximum sized soes trades cause high volatility over longer periods however intense maximum sized soes trading causes lower volatility inter preted in conjunction with harris and schultz 1997 these results suggest that high levels of maximum sized soes trades lead to more efficient price discovery in light of these results we believe that efforts to eliminate soes based on volatility considerations are unwarranted

testing ricardian equivalence a reconsideration empirical evidence on the determinants of private consumption in 52 countries over the period 1979 88 indicates that in contrast to the ricardian equivalence proposition a significant relationship exists between consumption and the variable the ratio of tax revenue to changes in government debt which measures the extent of substituting debt for tax financing the results obtained from estimating euler equations for the representative individual s stochastic dynamic optimization problem are favourable to the proposition that the choice between current taxation and debt issuance to finance a given government expenditure stream is relevant to the determination of the level of aggregate demand

economic policy in germany was there a turnaround germany under kohl martin hellwig and manfred neumann chancellor kohl came to power when germany was suffering its greatest post war confidence crisis output was stagnant the trade balance deteriorating unemployment rising and inflation uncomfortably high immediate priority was given to fiscal consolidation to bring the growing budget deficit under control the authors argue that in this instance fiscal contraction sufficiently boosted private sector confidence that overall demand was actually stimulated together fiscal rectitude by the federal government and monetary austerity by the bundesbank made possible sustained output growth against a background of falling inflation lower deficits also crowd in private investment in the longer run thus the authors judge kohl s macroeconomic policy a considerable success however unemployment has remained stubbornly high the authors attribute this to supply side failures the german labour market remains subject to many distortions which the kohl government has done little to remove nor has it seriously pursued deregulation of product markets german unemployment is likely to remain high at least until favourable demographic changes take effect in the 1990s

an analysis of australia s large scale renewable energy target restoring market confidence in 2001 australia introduced legislation requiring investment in new renewable electricity generating capacity the legislation was significantly expanded in 2009 to give effect to a 20 renewable energy target ret importantly the policy was introduced with bipartisan support and is consistent with global policy trends in this article we examine the history of the policy and establish that the stop start nature of renewable policy development has resulted in investors withholding new capital until greater certainty is provided we utilise the methodology from simshauser and nelson 2012 to examine whether capital market efficiency losses would occur under certain policy scenarios the results show that electricity costs would increase by between 51 million and 119 million if the large scale ret is abandoned even after accounting for avoided renewable costs our conclusions are clear we find that policymakers should be guided by a high level public policy principle in relation to large scale renewable energy policy constant review is not reform

consolidation fragmentation and market performance this paper studies the impact of market consolidation or fragmentation on its performance examining four alternative models of exchange a consolidated clearing house fragmented clearing houses a monopoly dealer market and an interdealer market the effects of the market mechanism on the expected quantity traded the price variance faced by individual traders the quality of market price signals the expected gains from trade and the exchange implementation costs are studied

fiscal stimulus in times of high debt reconsidering multipliers and twin deficits we investigate the impact of fiscal stimuli at different levels of the government debt to gdp ratio for a sample of 17 european countries from 1970 to 2010 this is implemented in an interacted panel var framework in which all coefficient parameters are allowed to change continuously with the debt to gdp ratio we find that responses to government spending shocks exhibit strong nonlinear behavior while the overall cumulative effect of a spending shock on real gdp is positive and significant at moderate debt to gdp ratios this effect turns negative as the ratio increases the total cumulative effect on the trade balance as a share of gdp is negative at first but switches sign at higher levels of debt consequently depending on the degree of public indebtedness our results accommodate long run fiscal multipliers that are greater and smaller than one or even negative as well as twin deficit and twin divergence behavior within one sample and time period from a policy perspective these results lend additional support to increased prudence at high public debt ratios because the effectiveness of fiscal stimuli to boost economic activity or resolve external imbalances may not be guaranteed

government debt and the demand for money an extreme bound analysis m keivan deravi charles e hegji and h dean moberly the article provides evidence that there is a relationship between government debt and interest rates via the demand for money this relationship is examined through the wealth effect of government debt on money demand and the robustness of the results is tested by the use of extreme bound analysis in addition to standard econometric techniques we find that ols regression shows government debt affecting the demand for money positively implying that federal government debt is net wealth in addition the extreme bound analysis shows that the estimates of the government debt coefficient are robust under alternative specifications of the goldfeld model i introduction this paper studies the relationship between government debt and interest rates the approach used in this paper differs from previous studies in two ways first this relationship is examined through the wealth effect of government debt on the demand for money second the robustness of the results is tested by use of extreme bound analysis as an alternative to standard econometric techniques theoretically there is no clear cut consensus as to whether or not government debt should be net wealth the argument used most often is that government debt will be net wealth if future tax liabilities to service the debt are for the aggregate economy only partially discounted two explanations for this partial discounting are offered first in dealing with finite lived individuals thompson 1967 assumes that the average remaining lifetime of current taxpayers is shorter than for future interest payments on the federal debt in this situation the net present value of a stream of equal interest payments and taxes will be positive as a counter argument barro 1974 has shown that current generations can act effectively as if they are infinite lived when they are linked to future generations through a series of pairwise transfers of wealth here the realization by current generations that tax liabilities will be left to future generations extends the lifetime of the relevant stream of tax liabilities for debt service government debt is then wealth neutral mundell 1971 provides a second reason for partial discounting by assuming that capital markets are imperfect and that the relevant discount rate for tax liabilities is higher than the rate for interest payments these discount rates are respectively thought of as applying to high risk of loan default and low risk of loan default individuals this difference in discount rates creates a positive wealth effect since under mundell s assumptions government debt held by taxpayers involves a loan from low discount rate to high discount rate individuals as barro 1974 has again countered this wealth effect will exist only to the extent that the government is more efficient at providing such a loan than the private sector finally barro 1974 kormendi 1983 and later aschauer 1985 advance an argument as to why government debt might be negative net wealth suppose there is considerable uncertainty about the intertemporal and cross sectional burden of the future tax liability necessary to service the debt in this case the certainty equivalent value of these future taxes might exceed the certainty equivalent value of the future income stream of the debt so that government debt would be negative net wealth the majority of the empirical studies of the net wealth induced linkage between government debt and interest rates have attempted to measure this relationship using consumption functions if privately owned government debt is net wealth the wealth effect of this debt working through a keynesian consumption function will be positive so that increased government borrowing will result in increased current consumption and interest rates several studies have assessed the relationship between government borrowing and consumption or interest rates via this mechanism

policy impacts under rational expectations abstract this paper re examines for the u s the validity of the macro rational expectations mre hypothesis in contrast to most previous studies in this area the paper a considers the potential real effects of both monetary and fiscal policies b allows for possible endogeneity of these policies and c uses a joint non linear estimation methodology to distangle the hypothesis of rationality from that of neutrality the empirical results reject the joint mre hypothesis for both policies the results also indicate that policy non neutrality is the culprit behind such rejection this evidence offers further empirical support for macro rational expectations models where monetary and fiscal policies can due to some rigidities play a key role in stabilizing the real economy

why does private consumption rise after a government spending shock recent empirical evidence suggests that private consumption is crowded in by government spending this outcome violates existing macroeconomic theory according to which the negative wealth effect brought about by a rise in public expenditure should decrease consumption

have large budget deficits caused rising trade deficits for the united states the 1980s have been years of both large and unprecedented trade deficits as well as massive federal budget deficits the trade deficit rose from 25 billion in 1980 to 124 billion in 1985 during this same period federal budget deficits soared from 74 billion in 1980 to more than 212 billion in 1985 it is widely believed that the u s trade deficit rose mainly because of the skyrocketing federal budget deficit presenting such a view are for example hutchison and pigott 25 hutchison and pyle 26 clark 11 modigliani 30 and aschauer 2 besides economists many labor unions i e afl cio and official government documents see the economic report of the president particularly of 1984 have all shared similar views the issues involved have important policy implications suppose that the basic reason for rising trade deficits is indeed the escalating federal budget deficit in this case policy makers may focus on curtailing the budget deficit in order to resolve the trade deficit problem that has adversely affected several sectors such as manufacturing industries and agriculture however if such a view concerning the causal role of the budget deficit is incorrect then reductions in the federal budget deficit may not resolve the trade deficit dilemma and moreover attention will be diverted from more relevant and urgently needed policy options 6 the purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the conventional argument that high federal budget deficit has been the prime cause of the escalating u s trade deficit finding only partial empirical evidence to support it in section ii i argue that most of previous studies in this area appear flawed by a methodological error rendering their tests unreliable for discriminating between a number of equally plausible hypotheses section iii describes the data and methodology used in the paper section iv presents the empirical results section v summarizes and concludes the paper

fiscal policy and saving under distortionary taxation an empirical investigation of the e ects of fiscal policy on saving is carried out using israeli data which display large variability in both the saving rate and the fiscal variables the framework is a small open economy model with distortionary taxation the theoretical analysis of the partial e ect of each fiscal variable on the national saving rate takes into account the necessary adjustment in future taxes the present model predicts for example that the income tax rate should have a negative e ect on saving in contrast to the keynesian view and that transfer payments and interest payments on the public debt should have positive e ects in contrast to the ricardian view under lump sum taxation the empirical results partly support the predictions of the model in particular for the income tax rate the methodology consists of two steps first quantitative predictions are obtained via simulation and then the simulated e ects are compared with the estimated coe cients 1998 elsevier science b v all rights reserved jel classification e62

budget balance through revenue or spending adjustments abstract the paper provides a historical perspective on the issue of whether budget deficits are typically eliminated by increased taxes or by reduced spending by examining u s budget data from 1792 1988 i conclude that about 50 65 of all deficits due to tax cuts and about 65 70 of all deficits due to higher government spending have been eliminated by subsequent spending cuts while the remainder was eliminated by subsequent tax increases in contrast to previous studies the empirical analysis uses error correction models in a way that the intertemporal budget constraint is imposed in the estimation stage

market making with costly monitoring an analysis of the soes controversy we develop a model of price formation in a dealership market where monitoring of the information flow requires costly effort the result is imperfect monitoring which creates profit opportunities for speculators who pick off stale quotes externalities associated with monitoring give rise to multiple equilibria in which dealers earn strictly positive expected profits we obtain various policy implications a switch to automatic execution can improve or worsen spreads and price discovery depending on the specific equilibrium a reduction in the minimum quoted depth tightens the spread but it reduces price efficiency our analysis is relevant for the soes controversy given that speculators in our model behave as the real world soes bandits our model predicts that soes bandits should trade in stocks with small spreads and that soes bandit activity should widen the spread we provide empirical evidence consistent with these predictions

program trading and market volatility a report on interday relationships ten months of daily observations on stock market volatility and program trading on the nyse reveal no relation between volatility and program trading intensity the days on which volatility was high were not systematically the days on which program trading intensity was high this is evident both from casual observation of the data and from analyses of the correlation and regression results there does appear to be however a positive relation between the intensity of dot volume relative to nyse volume and volatility there also appears to be a positive relation between the intensity of non program dot volume relative to nyse volume and volatility this suggests that very volatile days are also days when the retail customer generated dot order flow is large relative to institutional block trades which are not dot delivered

is the merchant power producer a broken model deregulated energy markets were founded on the merchant power producer a stand alone generator that sold its production to the spot and short term forward markets underpinned by long dated project finance the initial enthusiasm that existed for investment in existing and new merchant power plant capacity shortly after power system deregulation has progressively dissipated following an excess entry result in this article we demonstrate why this has become a global trend using debt sizing parameters typically used by project banks we model a benchmark plant then re simulate its performance using live energy market price data and find that such financings are no longer feasible in the absence of long term power purchase agreements

deficits and the demand for money in recent years the large budget deficits of the federal government have renewed interest in the effects of government debt on private sector behavior to date empirical research has focused on the relationship between debt and two key variables consumption and interest rates by contrast empirical research on the effects of government debt on other variables of interest to macroeconomists is limited this paper examines the relationship between government debt and one such variable real money balances the neglect of government debt as a determinant of money demand is surprising many traditional macroeconomic models such as blinder and solow s 9 influential work include government debt as an argument to the money demand function moreover macroeconomic theorists have long been aware that a government debt money demand relationship has important implications for the efficacy of fiscal policy 2 this paper examines the relationship between government debt and real money holdings over the 1950 1990 period a positive money debt relationship was previously noted by butkiewicz 12 and deravi hegji and moberly 15 hereafter referred to as dhm our work improves upon this research in two ways first in contrast to butkiewicz 12 and dhm 15 we investigate the time series properties stationarity cointegration of relevant variables second we distinguish between supply side and demand side explanations of the debt money relationship the explanation advanced by butkiewicz 12 and dhm 15 is that an increase government debt is perceived by the private sector as an increase in net wealth and hence should increase money demand 3 this explanation ignores a potentially important connection between government debt and money supply if the federal reserve monetizes debt and if the private sector s adjustment to this monetization is lagged then debt and real money balances will exhibit a positive correla

government deficits and aggregate demand abstract the evidence presented in this paper indicates that changes in government spending transfers and taxes can have substantial effects on aggregate demand the estimates also indicate that the promise of future social security benefits significantly reduces private saving each the basic implications of the so called ricardian equivalence theorem is contradicted by the data the results are consistent with the more general view of the effects of fiscal actions and fiscal expectations that is described in the paper

electronic trading system and returns volatility in the oil futures market this paper uses daily brent crude prices to investigate the employment of electronic trading on the returns conditional volatility in the oil futures market after a suitable garch model is established the conditional volatility series are found the bai and perron model is then used to find two significant structural breaks for these conditional volatility series around two implementation dates of electronic trading this result indicates that the change in the trading system has significant impacts on the returns volatility since our estimated second break date is very close to the all electronic trade implementation date moreover the conditional volatility in the all electronic trading period is found to be more dominated by the temporal persistence rather than the volatility clustering effect all these evidence can shed some light for explaining the high relationship between more volatile world oil price and the more popular electronic trade

a literature review of economic studies on carbon pricing and australian wholesale electricity markets abstract with the ongoing development of australian anthropogenic climate change mitigation policies there has been a steady increase in modelling studies undertaken to estimate australian carbon prices and their impact on existing electricity markets this article summarises some of the more prominent studies completed by many of australia s foremost economic modelling firms we developed a simple approach for testing the consistency of these studies and their findings in relation to carbon pass through unfortunately we have established that the studies are entirely inconsistent in their estimation of carbon pass through furthermore we were unable to establish why the estimation of carbon pass through varies so significantly this has important implications for policy makers given much of the compensation to be paid to households and businesses under the clean energy future package is predicated on simple assumptions of carbon pass through based upon our analysis of these economic studies our conclusion is that australian policy makers are best guided by relying upon the numerous a posteriori estimations of pass through in the european union emissions trading scheme ets rather than australian a priori studies

consumers are not ricardian evidence from nineteen countries i introduction in conventional macroeconomic analysis government debt affects the economy because households view it as net wealth the larger the government debt is the wealthier households feel and the more they consume in principle however households need not view government debt as net wealth david ricardo pointed out that they might conceivably treat the future taxes servicing the government debt as exactly offsetting it 1 robert barro 1974 has shown that maximizing households will actually do so if they accurately anticipate future taxes if they face perfect capital markets and if they have effectively infinite horizons ricardian equivalence is said to hold if households do treat future servicing taxes as an exact offset to the government debt many empirical papers on consumption have investigated whether ricardian equivalence is consistent with observation kochin 1974 barro 1978 tanner 1979 seater 1982 kormendi 1983 aschauer 1985 seater and mariano 1985 kormendi and meguire 1986 1990 leiderman and razin 1988 evans 1988 and evans and hasan 1993 have reported evidence consistent with ricardian equivalence by contrast blinder and deaton 1985 feldstein 1978 1982 boskin and kotlikoff 1985 modigliani and sterling 1986 1990 and feldstein and elmendorf 1990 have reported evidence inconsistent with ricardian equivalence unfortunately most of these studies do not estimate regression equations that derive from well specified theoretical models nesting both ricardian equivalence and an alternative theory in which budget deficits and current taxes are not equivalent consequently their results are often hard to interpret moreover these studies consider the data for only one country typically the united states as a result the tests that are performed may not have much power to distinguish an economy for which ricardian equivalence would be a good approximation from one for which it would be a bad approximation olivier blanchard 1985 has provided one of the few models in the literature that tractably nests ricardian equivalence and an alternative in which households view government debt as net wealth depending upon whether a crucial parameter is zero or positive households have infinite horizons internalize all future generations and exhibit ricardian behavior or have finite horizons are at least somewhat disconnected from future generations and exhibit non ricardian behavior that strengthens as the parameter becomes larger the model has testable implications that this paper examines using annual data for nineteen countries when the data for the countries are pooled the tests have sufficient power not only to reject ricardian equivalence in favor of blanchard s alternative but also to yield a precise estimate of the deviation from ricardian equivalence this estimated deviation is approximately what one would expect if capital and insurance markets were perfect and households did not have altruistic bequest motives the deviation is however also economically unimportant for many purposes the rest of the paper is organized as follows section ii lays out blanchard s model and derives the testable implications of ricardian equivalence section iii tests these implications section iv summarizes the findings of the paper and interprets them ii empirical implications of ricardian equivalence in the stochastic variant of blanchard s model formulated in this section the economy is inhabited by a constant population of households that have finite horizons and face perfect capital and insurance markets 2 each household has a finite horizon because it has a probability p of dying each period and being replaced by another household from which it is entirely disconnected with the population normalized to unity the number of households born 0 1 2 periods earlier is always p p 1 p p 1 p sup

macroeconomic effects of fiscal adjustment a tale of two approaches abstract we investigate the short term effects of fiscal adjustment on economic activity in 20 oecd countries from 1970 to 2009 we compare two approaches the traditional approach based on changes in cyclically adjusted primary balance capb and the narrative approach based on historical records proponents of the latter argue that it captures discretionary fiscal adjustment more accurately than the traditional approach we propose a new definition of capb that takes account of fluctuations in asset prices and reflects idiosyncratic features of fiscal policy in individual countries using this new definition we find that fiscal adjustments always have contractionary effects on economic activity in the short term we find no evidence of expansionary non keynesian fiscal adjustments spending based fiscal adjustments lead to smaller output losses than tax based fiscal adjustment these results are in line with the literature using the narrative approach suggesting that the capb when correctly specified can be used as a measure of fiscal adjustments

transactions volume and volatility we show that the positive volatility volume relation documented by numerous researchers actually reflects the positive relation between volatility and the number of transactions thus it is the occurrence of transactions per se and not their size that generates volatility trade size has no information beyond that contained in the frequency of transactions our results suggest that theoretical research needs to entertain scenarios in which 1 both the frequency and size of trades are endogenously determined yet 2 the size of trades has no information content beyond that contained in the number of transactions article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

the tax versus debt controversy in a multivariate cointegrating system the empirical literature is replete with evidence that budget deficits and government debt affect traditional view or do not appreciably affect ricardian equivalence private consumption however the validity of the relative empirical estimates can be questioned to the extent that they do not adequately distinguish among countries with varying levels of indebtedness the present paper attempts to address this problem by using johansen s cointegration technique and by sorting the sample countries into groups according to the ratio of debt to gdp the empirical evidence generated finds support for the debt illusion hypothesis as a means of expounding variations in consumers behaviour among countries with varying degrees of indebtedness

government debt national income and causality the concept of granger causality is applied to assess the validity of the ricardian equivalence hypothesis the analysis is conducted using a multivariate approach with a us data set consisting of annual observations for the 1919 1981 period the empirical evidence generated by this investigation does not support the strict debt neutrality position

fiscal stabilizations when do they work and why abstract this paper studies the determinants and channels through which fiscal contractions influence the dynamics of the debt to gdp ratio and gdp growth using data from a panel of oecd countries the paper shows that the success of fiscal adjustments in decreasing the debt to gdp ratio depends on the size of the fiscal contraction and less on its composition the rate of growth of output matters too but higher gdp growth does not drive the success of a fiscal stabilization in contrast whether a fiscal adjustment is expansionary depends largely on the composition of the fiscal maneuvre in particular stabilizations implemented by cutting public spending lead to higher gdp growth rates the effects of the composition on growth work mostly through the labor market rather than through agents expectations of future fiscal policy finally the evidence suggests that successful and expansionary fiscal contractions are not the result of accompanying expansionary monetary policy or exchange rate devaluations

financing decisions and the crowding out effect abstract this study empirically assesses the relevance of the crowding out effect in the case of a developing country the philippines the finding of a crowding out effect from the issue of government debt is not due to a lack of rationality

aggregate consumption and deficit financing an attempt to separate permanent from transitory effects many previous empirical studies of the ricardian equivalence hypothesis have found a relatively high degree of future tax liability discounting such that current deficits appear to have relatively little or no influence on current consumption demand however the validity of these empirical estimates can be questioned as they may not have adequately distinguished between permanent and transitory income flows this paper attempts to address this problem by using cycle averaging as a simple method of capturing the permanent path of income over time the empirical evidence generated in this paper rejects the strict debt neutrality proposition of the ricardian equivalence hypothesis

an empirical study of the effect of rule 19c 3 the extent to which all orders for common stocks should be consolidated that is sent to a single marketplace and the effect of consolidation on competition in the securities markets have been the subject of much debate in the past quarter century this debate has focused on offboard trading restrictions for member firms for example new york stock exchange nyse rule 390 and american stock exchange amex rule 5 and on the institution of appropriate intermarket linkages for example the consolidated transactions tape the consolidated quotations system and the intermarket trading system while the securities and exchange commission sec has attempted to promote competition in the securities markets the results of its efforts are uncertain consequently the consolidation fragmentation debate continues in this article we examine a very specific case in which the sec tried to increase the degree of competition in market making rule 19c 3 allowed off board trading of nyse listed stocks by exchange members as we will show this rule had both beneficial and adverse effects section i describes rule 19c 3 the environment which led to its introduction and the controversy surrounding it in section ii we examine the effect of rule 19c 3 on over the counter otc market making activity we find that for about 34 percent of the eligible stocks the introduction of exchange member market makers increased the total level and also the continuity of otc market making activity in section iii we find that rule 19c 3 has had a statistically significant effect in reducing percentage bidask spreads which ceteris paribus is desirable in section iv our analysis shows that rule 19c 3 has led to an increase in returns variance which ceteris paribus is undesirable finally our summary and conclusion are presented in section v

earnings expectations investor trade size and anomalous returns around earnings announcements abstract we provide evidence that identifiable subsets of investors use significantly different information sets investors initiating large trades respond to analysts earnings forecast errors while investors initiating small trades respond to a less sophisticated signal that underestimates the implications of current earnings innovations for future earnings levels this suggests small investors exhibit the behavior that bernard and thomas journal of accounting and economics 13 305 340 theorize causes post earnings announcement drift we also use analysts forecasts to significantly improve the predictability of returns around earnings announcements previously documented by bernard and thomas finally results attempting to link return predictability to the prevalence of small investor trading are mixed

vertical integration credit ratings and retail price settings in energy only markets navigating the resource adequacy problem abstract energy only markets are prone to the resource adequacy problem i e the timely entry of new plant the reason for this is that competitive energy only markets struggle to be remunerative given reliability constraints and market price caps historically australia s 45 000 mw national electricity market has managed to navigate this well understood problem albeit with government entities directly or indirectly responsible for a surprisingly large 73 of all new plant investments to 2007 but government involvement in direct investment has now ceased so what will enable the industry to navigate the resource adequacy problem into the future quite simply industrial organisation the presence of merchant utilities with investment grade credit ratings and setting any regulated retail prices or price to beat with an lrmc floor

a resource based view of opportunities to transform australia s electricity sector abstract proponents of low carbon transformation face an uphill battle to reconfigure incumbent energy systems against powerful interests protecting the status quo australia s electricity sector is an example of such a system wedded to fossil fuels and backed by much of the country s political establishment this paper addresses the potential for low carbon transformation in australia s electricity sector it explores the complex and uncertain dynamics shaping the sector and outlines how these can be understood through the lens of strategic agency with an eye for opportunities to drive a shift to renewables it reviews the dynamics of change and re stability shaping australia s electricity sector between 2006 and 2015 and applies a resource based view of transformative agency to analyse these dynamics results show the sector suffers multiple stressors and emphasise disruptive changes in the pipeline critically many of these transformative dynamics stem from factors outside the influence of the electricity sector and its supporters while results do not point to a clear trajectory or outcome of transformation they indicate the uptake of small scale solar photovoltaic pv systems by households and small business will play a defining role in the sector s future configuration furthermore the exploration of transformative dynamics affecting the electricity sector through a resource based lens shows that many opportunities exist for strategic agents to intervene in support of a disruptive shift to renewables the paper suggests a range of mechanisms that agents could use to undermine the strength of fossil energy in the electricity sector and encourage a shift to renewables

does the public sector obey the rational expectations permanent income hypothesis a multi country study of the time series properties of government expenditures 1989 does the public sector obey the rational expectations permanent income hypothesis a multi country study of the time series properties of government expenditures applied economics vol 21 no 9 pp 1257 1266

the relation between price changes and trading volume a survey this paper reviews previous and current research on the relation between price changes and trading volume in financial markets and makes four contributions first two empiri cal relations are established volume is positively related to the magnitude of the price change and in equity markets to the price change per se second previous theoretical research on the price volume relation is summarized and critiqued and major insights are emphasized third a simple model ofthe price volume relation is proposed that is consis tent with several seemingly unrelated or contradictory observations and fourth several directions for future research are identified

is the ricardian equivalence proposition an aerie fairy theory for europe using a theoretical model based on dynamic optimizing agents we test empirically the ricardian equivalence proposition rep for the eu 15 countries the theoretical setting allows us to obtain estimates of the structural parameters of the model and to test directly the hypothesis implied by the rep using recently developed end of sample cointegration breakdown tests we find evidence of a change in the fiscal behaviour of individuals during the last decade after the introduction of a fiscal rule namely the maastricht criteria for most countries in the sample the results concerning the direction of change are mixed

does ricardian equivalence hold when expectations are not rational this paper considers the ricardian equivalence proposition when expectations are not rational and are instead formed using adaptive learning rules we show that ricardian equivalence continues to hold provided suitable additional conditions on learning dynamics are satisfied however new cases of failure can also emerge under learning in particular for ricardian equivalence to obtain agents expectations must not depend on government s financial variables under deficit financing

ricardian equivalence empirical evidence from developing economies abstract the strong underlying assumptions of the barro ricardo equivalence proposition rep raise doubts on its validity especially for developing countries this paper attempts to analyze the validity of the rep and the sources of deviation from rep for a large sample of developing countries although the results are of a mixed nature they suggest that the presence of liquidity constrained individuals may be the source of deviation from the rep the analysis also indicates that public spending is a poor substitute for private consumption and hence implies that temporary increases in public spending may have some expansionary effect on aggregate demand

on intermittent renewable generation the stability of australia s national electricity market abstract energy only markets have an inherently unstable equilibrium even under ideal conditions because participants are unable to optimise voll events the addition of intermittent renewable generation is thought to make conditions harder in this article optimal voll events in an islanded nem region is modelled by substituting high price caps for boiteux capacity charges then analysing the impact of adding progressively more variable renewable energy vre up to 35 market share spot market conditions prove stable and tractable provided thermal plant exit and adjust perfectly but vre asset allocation is important absent highly elastic demand or ultra low cost storage solar pv market share has economic limits because the technology rapidly cannibalises itself furthermore as vre rises in imperfectly interconnected regions a tipping point appears to exist where hedge markets enter an unstable zone through shortages of asset backed firm intra regional swaps and caps government initiated cfds for vre need to be designed carefully to ensure any instability is not exacerbated by extracting contracts from an already shortening hedge market

the large scale solar feed in tariff reverse auction in the australian capital territory australia abstract feed in tariffs fits offer renewable energy developers significant investor certainty but sometimes at the cost of being misaligned with generation costs reverse fit auctions where the fit rights for a predetermined capacity are auctioned can overcome this problem but can be plagued by non delivery risks particularly of competitively priced proposals in 2012 and 2013 the australian capital territory act government in australia conducted a fit reverse auction for 40 mw of large scale solar generating capacity the first such auction undertaken in the country the auction was highly competitive in relation to price and demonstrating low delivery risks proposal capital costs particularly engineering procurement and construction costs as well as internal rates of return were lower than expected the auction process revealed limited land availability for large scale solar developments in the act as well as a significant perceived sovereign risk issue the auction process was designed to mitigate non delivery risk by requiring proposals to be pre qualified on the basis of delivery risk before considering fit pricing the scheme is likely to be used by the act government to support further large scale renewable energy development as part of its greenhouse gas reduction strategy which is underpinned by a 90 per cent by 2020 renewable energy target

determining commercially viable two way and one way contract for difference strike prices and revenue receipts abstract in this article we investigate the role that a contract for difference cfd might play in increasing investment in renewable energy in australia two cfd schemes are investigated two way and one way cfd a financial model is developed that determines commercially viable cfd strike prices account is taken of revenue from wholesale electricity market and renewable energy certificate sales capital and operational costs of the project including distribution of funds to holders of equity and debt are also included findings based on analysis of the solar array located at the university of queensland gatton campus in australia is presented employing a typical meteorological year framework the major finding was that government will prefer a two way cfd scheme and single axis tracking solar pv array technology in contrast project proponents will strongly prefer a one way cfd design

fiscal policy and the term structure abstract this paper investigates the empirical association between deficits in interest rates it extends the results in plosser 1982 to include the more recent experience the association between a measure of ex ante real rates and deficits is also considered the results largely corroborate the previous results first little or no association between real or nominal interest rates and deficits is found second output and to a lesser extent military spending are found to have a significant association with interest rates

financing alternative energy projects an examination of challenges and opportunities for local government abstract local government in australia has a strong collective capacity to reduce ghg emissions through policies funding allocation to renewable energy projects and the delivery of programs and services this study examines the institutional capacity of councils in sydney and how this impacts on decisions to invest in alternative energy projects we find greenhouse gas emission targets of councils are strongly aligned to national targets but do not reflect the local council s institutional capacity political leadership or strategic priorities energy reduction projects are often identified and undertaken by environmental staff without support from financial staff or financial evaluation tools an absence of national guidelines to provide consistency in tracking and reporting limits cross sector benchmarking street lighting contributes to a significant proportion of council s total electricity expenditure and ghg emission profile being highly regulated existing contracts and the current practice of street lighting services limits the councils ability to reduce emissions based on our analysis we recommend a number of measures to overcome these constraints including the use of financial evaluation tools for small scale renewable energy projects a standardised national tracking and reporting platform to facilitate progress reporting and meaningful comparative analysis between councils and policy reform to the regulation of street lighting

ricardian equivalence and the public and private saving nexus in india abstractthis study tests the ricardian equivalence theorem ret and examines the responsiveness of private saving to public saving in india most estimators do not provide support for the empirical validity of ret and long run cointegration between public and private saving the increases in household saving hhs seem to have been engendered by the provision of saving incentives institution of saving schemes self driven motivation to save and the precautionary accumulations induced by uncovered uncertainties in incomes rather than by ricardian behaviour of households the self imposed aversion to debt and debt bequest borrowing and liquidity constraints and the intertemporal smoothing of consumption have been the added catalysts that contributed to the increases in hhs the households with binding borrowing constraints inadequate or no insurance and uncovered uncertainties in incomes seem to have been saving more to pay for higher inflation tax the fiscal consolidation and generation of public s

new evidence on deficits and interest rates it is generally assumed on theoretical grounds that increases in government borrowing cause interest rates to rise 1 but empirical support for this proposition has been weak at best several recent papers have uncovered no strong relationship between deficits and short terrn interest rates however the research reported here indicates that although the relationship between deficits and short terrn interest rates may be tenuous there is strong evidence that larger deficits are associated with higher long terrn interest rates much of the debate about whether there is a strong relationship between federal borrowing and interest rates concerns the crowding out question this controversy centers on the direct and indirect eilffects of government fiscal actions on private spending these effects have been well documented in the theoretical literature e g buiter 1977 carlson and spencer 1975 blinder and solow 1973 many of the crowding out effects studied in this literature depend on the connection between government borrowing and high interest rates friedman 1978 meyer 1975 silber 1970 this is called short run indirect crowding out and may occur when increases in government spending and borrowing cause interest rates to rise which then may cause private spending to be reduced buiter 1977 pp 310 13

trade size order imbalance and the volatility volume relation abstract this paper examines the roles of the number of trades size of trades and order imbalance buyer versus seller initiated trades in explaining the volatility volume relation for a sample of nyse and nasdaq stocks our results reconfirm the significance of the size of trades beyond that of the number of trades in the volatility volume relation on both markets after controlling for the return impact of order imbalance the volatility volume relation becomes much weaker for nyse stocks the order imbalance in large trade size categories affects the return more than in smaller size categories for nasdaq stocks the largest return impact comes from the order imbalance in maximum sized small order execution system soes trades

in the transformation of energy systems what is holding australia back abstract australia has had a strong gdp growth rate is endowed with a diversity of renewable energy resources yet has been unable to unshackle its dependency on fossil fuels our study identifies causes underlying australia s underachievement in its transformation towards a renewable energy economy we apply a combined mixed methods case study and multi criteria analysis to evaluate the greenhouse gas emissions and energy targets policies and programs of four australian prime ministers between 1996 and 2015 we identify four high impact factors that contribute to australia s underachievement the prime minister s political stance on climate and energy is critical in setting the direction of government the absence of target driven policy frameworks results in less effective policy outcomes orderly and cost effective energy system transformation requires bipartisan strategic long term planning and substantial capital investment to provide policy certainty and stability that can induce new investment in renewable technologies and industries energy policy is primarily a political and ideological issue not one driven by underlying economic conditions going forward australia must achieve a bipartisan position on climate and energy policy at both federal and state levels this will provide long term certainty and stability to support investment in renewable energy and so doing achieve international emission reduction obligations

using renewables to hedge against future electricity industry uncertainties an australian case study abstract a generation portfolio modelling was employed to assess the expected costs cost risk and emissions of different generation portfolios in the australian national electricity market nem under highly uncertain gas prices carbon pricing policy and electricity demand outcomes were modelled for 396 possible generation portfolios each with 10 000 simulations of possible fuel and carbon prices and electricity demands in 2030 the lowest expected cost generation portfolio includes 60 renewable energy increasing the renewable proportion to 75 slightly increased expected cost by 0 2 mwh but significantly decreased the standard deviation of cost representing the cost risk increasing the renewable proportion from the present 15 to 75 by 2030 is found to decrease expected wholesale electricity costs by 17 mwh fossil fuel intensive portfolios have substantial cost risk associated with high uncertainty in future gas and carbon prices renewables can effectively mitigate cost risk associated with gas and carbon price uncertainty this is found to be robust to a wide range of carbon pricing assumptions this modelling suggests that policy mechanisms to promote an increase in renewable generation towards a level of 75 by 2030 would minimise costs to consumers and mitigate the risk of extreme electricity prices due to uncertain gas and carbon prices

an empirical analysis on the substitutability between private consumption and government purchases abstract this paper estimates substitutability of government purchases for private consumption using an optimal consumption model the utility function features several types of nonseparabilities the paper finds that gmm estimates are affected by the specification of nonseparability between private consumption and government purchases by the restriction of time separability and by the measurement of real interest rates

the trading profits of soes bandits1 abstract soes bandits are individual investors who use nasdaq s small order execution system soes for day trading their average profit per trade is small but they trade dozens or hundreds of times per week bandits usually establish a position before most market makers have updated their quotes and lay off the position at favorable prices through instinet or selectnet it is noteworthy that they trade profitably with market makers despite having less information bandits keep the profits and bear the losses from their trades thus they have greater incentives to trade well than the employees of market making firms

fiscal policy and private investment expenditure a study of australia and the united states the effect of government spending on private sector s investment and profitability is examined within the context of an open economy macro model the empirical results of the study indicate that the private investment expenditure in australia and the united states is crowed out by government investment and government consumption respectively these results are in conflict with the hypothesis of fiscal neutrality in addition the empirical results of corporate profitability provide no support for the complementary relationship between public and private investment expenditure