natural resources national income and economic growth in africa abstract because standard measures of aggregate income such as gross domestic product gdp do not account for natural resource depletion their use as gauges of economic performance tends to exaggerate the benefits of resource extraction accounting for natural resource depletion in 18 african countries indicates different patterns of growth than those suggested by gdp figures use of the revised measures in analyses of the link between exports and growth suggests that export expansion may generate increases in measured gdp without stimulating increased production in contrast real exchange rate alignment is correlated with growth in both conventional gdp and the revised accounts

tourism as a long run economic growth factor the spanish case this paper examines the role of tourism in the spanish long run economic development the tourism led growth hypothesis is confirmed through cointegration and causality testing the results indicate that at least during the last three decades economic growth in spain has been sensible to persistent expansion of international tourism the increase of this activity has produced multiplier effects over time external competitivity has also been proved in the model to be a fundamental variable for spanish economic growth from the empirical analysis it can be inferred the positive effects on income that government policy in the adequacy of supply as well as in the promotion of tourist activity may bring about

trade foreign direct investment and economic growth in asian economies despite the increasing role of foreign direct investment fdi in economic development very limited research has been carried out on the causal links between trade fdi and economic growth in asian economies this study examines empirically the inter play between exports imports fdi and economic growth for nine asian economies by conducting multivariate causality tests in the vector error correction model vecm framework the results reveal two way causal connections between trade inward fdi inward merger and acquisitions m as and growth for most of the sample economies there is a unidirectional causal link running from outward m as to growth and trade these findings suggest that export expansion import liberalization fdi inflows and inward m as are integral elements of the growth process in asian economies

the empirical relationship between money prices and income revisited this article investigates the relationship between sum divisia and monetary velocity money prices and income using the notion of granger 1969 causality this is achieved by evaluating empirically using dickey fuller unit root tests whether the macroeconomic time series under consideration are trend stationary or difference stationary and by conducting tests using three different ad hoc lag lengths 8 6 and 4 quarters as well as a statistically determined using akaike s 1969a b final prediction error criterion lag structure

on the causal links between fdi and growth in developing countries we analyse the granger causal relationships between foreign direct investment fdi and gdp in a sample of 31 developing countries covering 31 years using estimators for heterogeneous panel data we find bi directional causality between the fdi to gdp ratio and the level of gdp fdi has a lasting impact on gdp while gdp has no longrun impact on the fdi to gdp ratio in that sense fdi causes growth furthermore in a model for gdp and fdi as a fraction of gross capital formation gcf we also find long run effects from fdi to gdp this finding may be interpreted as evidence in favour of the hypotheses that fdi has an impact on gdp via knowledge transfers and adoption of new technology

foreign direct investment in mexico a cointegration analysis this article addresses the important question of whether foreign direct investment enhances economic growth and labour productivity in mexico both from a theoretical and empirical perspective after briefly reviewing the mexican experience with net fdi inflows during the 1990s the article presents a simple endogenous growth model which explicitly incorporates any positive negative externalities generated by additions to the foreign capital stock using cointegration analysis the article estimates a dynamic labour productivity function for the 1960 95 period that includes the impact of the growth rate in the stocks of both private and foreign capital as opposed to the flows and the economically active population eap rather than the rate of population growth the error correction model ecm estimates suggest that increases in both private ad lagged foreign investment spending as well as the rate of growth in exports have a positive and economically significant effect on the rate of labour pr

microeconomic consequences and macroeconomic causes of foreign direct investment in southern african economies the authors use a new data set on firms in thirteen countries of the southern african development community sadc and comparators from other regions to identify the benefits and determinants of foreign direct investment fdi in this region fdi has facilitated local development in the sadc foreign owned firms perform better than domestic firms are larger and locate in richer and better governed countries and in countries with more competitive financial intermediaries they are also more likely to export than domestic firms and evidence suggests that they might have positive spillover effects on domestic firms based on a standard empirical model the sadc is attracting the inward fdi per capita the region s level of income would predict but this means that there are less capital inflows per capita to the region than there are to wealthier parts of the developing world moreover the sadc is attracting less fdi than comparators for reasons that are possibly more fundamental than current income namely countries past growth record demographic structure and the quality of physical infrastructure interestingly inward fdi is less sensitive to variation in income within the sadc than in other parts of the world but is more responsive to changes in country s openness to trade

openness in the canadian economy 1870 1988 the causal relation between openness and gdp and between exports and imports are examined causality test carried out in growth rates showed that over the period 1870 1988 openness both narrowly and broadly defined granger causes gdp growth tests for the inverse causality produced mixed results validating causality from gdp growth to export plus import growth but rejecting causlaity from gdp growth to export growth it was also found that export growth causes import growth but not the opposite causality tests over four subperiods indicated the importance of openness for only the earliest phase of canadian economic development while the absence of causality in the later subperiods is largely compatible with the experience of the industrial countries no meaningful comparison can be made between the experience of canada and that of developing countries owing to causality variations of openness and to large differences in resource endowments

exports and economic growth evidence from 19th century europe abstract cointegration and granger causality tests on data for six european countries from around the middle of the 19th century to 1913 show that exports and gnp were cointegrated and granger causally related with export led growth in italy norway and sweden

vector autoregression cointegration and causality testing for causes of the british industrial revolution the existence timing and possible causes of the british industrial revolution are considered by investigating the time series properties of industrial production and various explanatory variables utilising two types of robust cointegration based causality tests we argue that domestic forces notably technological progress shaped the industrial revolution whereas overseas trade expansion was mainly a consequence of industrial growth results from granger type var tests are contrasted with those of toda and phillips working paper 91 07 university of western australia 1991b where the latter manifest some of the potential problems raised by the authors when applied to a data set of this type an understanding of the possible causes of the first industrial revolution may shed more general light on the forces promoting industrialization and growth to the extent that the first industrial revolution offers a template exports appear not to provide a simple pathway to industrialization

on the export led growth hypothesis the econometric evidence from china the export led growth hypothesis is tested by estimating an augmented growth equation on the basis of times series data from china the granger no causality procedure developed by toda and yamamoto journal of econometrics 66 1995 was applied to test the causality link between exports and economic growth in a var system three distinct features in this paper stand out compared to earlier studies on china first we have gone beyond the traditional two variable relationship by building a var model in the production function context to avoid a possible specification bias second we follow riezman whiteman and summers empirical economics 21 1996 to test the export led growth hypothesis while controlling for the growth of imports to avoid producing a spurious causality result third we test the sensitivity of causality test results under different lag structures along with the choice of optimal lags in particular the methodology developed by toda and yamamoto 1995 is expected to improve the stan

foreign investment and spillover efficiency in an underdeveloped economy evidence from the mexican manufacturing industry abstract in this paper we consider the question whether differences in technical efficiency of mexican plants in part derive from spillover efficiency associated with foreign direct investment we use labour productivity as a measure of technical efficiency and relate this to capital intensity labour quality and scale of production we measure the degree of competition by different concentration indices and the final factor determining efficiency is the presence of foreign subsidiaries if there is a positive relation between efficiency of domestic plants and the foreign participation of various industries we conclude that there is a spillover of technical efficiency the empirical evidence from the study indicates that this is the case

political business cycles 40 years after nordhaus the aim of this article is to survey the huge literature that has emerged in the last four decades following nordhaus s rev econ stud 42 2 169 190 1975 publication on political business cycles pbcs i first propose some developments in history of thought to examine the context in which this ground breaking contribution saw the light of the day i also present a simplified version of nordhaus s model to highlight his key results i detail some early critiques of this model and the fields of investigations to which they gave birth i then focus on the institutional context and examine its influence on pbcs the actual research agenda finally i derive some paths for future research

export composition and growth of selected low income african countries evidence from time series data this paper examines the hypothesis that economic growth is linked to export composition with the use of time series data for some low income african countries on the basis of the regression results the study supports the hypothesis of a positive linkage between the growth of non fuel primary exports and growth however the results cast some doubt on the significance of the positive contribution of the manufactured exports sector to the growth process of the low income african countries

exports and growth is the export led growth hypothesis valid for provincial economies this paper re examines the export led growth hypothesis using provincial data unlike other studies that concentrate on country level data this study investigates the validity of the hypothesis for four largest provinces in korea seoul kyunggee kyungnam and pusan the causal implication of the export led growth hypothesis is generally supported for all provinces in the sample the framework of analysis is two and four variable autoregressive models that include provincial exports provincial output terms of trade and national output shocks granger causal orderings from exports to output growth are generally supported in bivariate causal models in multivariate models variance decompositions and impulse response functions further indicate that export growth has a significant impact on output growth for all provinces although a feedback effect from output to export growth appears in seoul and the kyungnam province

prices and quality effects in cross sectional demand analysis a conceptual clarification of the sources and meaning of cross sectional price variability is used to motivate a theoretical and econometric framework for the estimation of cross sectional demand functions quality effects are distinguished from supply related price variability to identify cross sectional demand for disaggregated food commodities an empirical application using data from the 1977 78 nationwide food consumption survey indicates that parameter differences resulting from a failure to adjust cross sectional prices for quality effects are likely to be small for relatively homogenous disaggregated food commodities in demand analysis with cross sectional household budget data it is usually assumed that prices are constant allen and bowley prais and houthakker george and king given this assumption engel functions are estimated where expenditure or quantity is regressed on income or total expenditures family size and other demographic characteristics the assumption that cross sectional price effects are absent or are captured adequately by spatial and temporal dummy variables has not been evaluated empirically whether cross sectional price effects can be treated in this manner has implications for the specification of cross sectional demand functions as well as the estimation of engel functions there is a considerable literature on estimating price elasticities with cross sectional data most of the applications utilize timeseries cross sectional data annual or quarterly household consumption surveys and

exports investment efficiency and economic growth in ldc an empirical investigation this study seeks to analyse the relationship between exports and growth for 19 less developed countries it utilizes multivariate causality analysis based on the error correction model to address several important hypotheses the results indicate that when exports have a causal influence in the development process that in general this is the result of their effect on both efficiency and accumulation in addition improvements in output and capital accumulation in an economy seem to have just as much of an influence on exports as exports have on output and capital accumulation finally the growth process in east asia seems to be quite different from that in southeast asia

new evidence on the export led growth nexus a case study of malaysia this paper revisits the highly debated export led growth hypothesis in a number of different ways using malaysia as a case study first the hypothesis is tested in terms of labour and total factor productivity growth as a potential channel via which exports can affect or be affected by gdp growth considering the impact of imports on gdp and productivity growth serves a similar purpose in addition gdp is trade adjusted to avoid the double counting problem arising from the national income identity second the relationships are examined using the relatively recent toda and yamamoto 1995 causality tests these results have major implications and are necessary to reassess the effectiveness of trade policy as a strategy for economic development 2007 the author journal compilation

foreign direct investment exports and imports in mexico this paper analyses the liberalisation of foreign direct investment fdi in mexico since the late 1980s and its relationships with exports and imports such a process has eased the access of multinational corporations mncs to the country which has promoted exports however it has also resulted in a higher import content and the displacement of local firms which has limited mexico s economic development through the balance of payments constraint the analysis is supported by the existence of linkages bidirectional granger causality between exports imports and fdi

causality between export growth and industrial development empirical evidence from the nics a comment abstract in a recent article chow 1987 argued that his empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that export growth causes industrial development in this comment i point out several serious shortcomings of chow s analysis

cross sector export externalities in developing countries abstract feder s model journal of development economics 1982 12 59 73 has been used extensively to measure the externality and productivity enhancing effects of one sector on the whole economy we argue that the model is misspecified make three modifications estimate it for the export vs non export sectors and compare our results with feder s

tourism trade and growth the case of cyprus although the relationship between international trade and economic growth has found a wide application area in the literature over the years this can not be said about tourism and growth or trade and tourism this study employs the bounds test for cointegration and granger causality tests to investigate a long run equilibrium relationship between tourism trade and real income growth and the direction of causality among themselves for cyprus results reveal that tourism trade and real income growth are cointegrated thus a long run equilibrium relationship can be inferred between these three variables on the other hand granger causality test results suggest that real income growth stimulates growth in international trade both exports and imports and international tourist arrivals to the island furthermore growth in international trade both exports and imports also stimulates an increase in international tourist arrivals to cyprus and finally real import growth stimulate growth in real export

modelling with flexibility through the business cycle using a panel smooth transition model to test for the lipstick effect consumer spending typically declines during periods of economic distress but observers have noted that lipstick purchases appear to increase during recessions which is often referred to as the li

exports and growth critical minimum effort and diminishing returns abstract this paper provides some extensions and qualifications concerning the empirical evidence for the positive impact of exports on growth using a model of feder in particular the ideas of critical minimum effort and diminishing returns with respect to the export sector are given some empirical support

the boundaries of multinational enterprises and the theory of international trade this paper begins with a review of empirical evidence on multinational firms conceptual underpinnings of a theory are developed relying in particular on the notion of knowledge capital as a mobile joint input into geographically separated production facilities this idea is embedded in a simple two country general equilibrium model that supports multinational production in equilibrium under conditions consistent with the empirical evidence the final section examines internalization and shows why certain properties of knowledge capital also imply a preference for transferring technologies internally within the firm rather than through arm s length markets

exports imports and economic growth in south korea and japan a tale of two economies this article investigates the relationship between exports imports and economic growth for south korea and japan by constructing a vector autoregression var model causality is examined between real gross domestic product gdp real exports and real imports several principal results emerge from the empirical work first the three variables are cointegrated for both countries implying that a long run steady state exists second there is evidence of bidirectional causality between imports and economic growth for both countries finally japan seems to experience export led growth while gdp growth in south korea has a negative effect on export growth these contrasting findings could result from export goods in japan exhibiting greater nonprice competitive aspects although their success fails to trigger a virtuous circle since growth fails to lead to increased exports while for south korea output growth leads to a decrease in export growth suggesting a strong domestic market

the role of exports fdi and imports in development evidence from sub saharan african countries the disappointing economic performance of sub saharan african ssa economies in the late 1980s prompted reforms in foreign trade and foreign direct investment fdi in the early 1990s using the autoregressive distributed lag ardl approach and pedroni panel estimation procedures that allow for heterogeneity this study found that exports and fdi have a significant impact on economic growth granger type causality tests show the interrelatedness of exports fdi imports and income variables the results also provide evidence of a two stage causal chain of exports imports and income this article calls for more market oriented policy reforms in ssa countries

causal relationship between energy consumption and gdp revisited the case of korea 1970 1999 abstract causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is investigated applying a multivariate model of capital labor energy and gdp usual btu energy aggregate is substituted with a divisia aggregate in an attempt to mitigate aggregation bias to test for granger causality in the presence of cointegration among the variables we employ a vector error correction model rather than a vector autoregressive model empirical results for korea over the period 1970 1999 suggest a long run bidirectional causal relationship between energy and gdp and short run unidirectional causality running from energy to gdp the source of causation in the long run is found to be the error correction terms in both directions

can trade liberalization stimulate economic growth in africa abstract this paper examines changes in economic growth that are likely to result from changes in trade policies exports and investment in 12 sub saharan african ssa countries using a vector error correction model vecm our results indicate that trade policies exports and investment rate shocks have a significant impact on economic growth in 10 of the 12 ssa countries this suggests that it is possible to stimulate economic growth in some african countries through an outward looking strategy of export expansion more significantly the results further suggest the importance as well as the need for african countries to embark on trade liberalization policies in order to enhance economic growth in the current world economy

mexico and export led growth the porfirian period revisited this paper examines mexico s development experience during the golden age of export led growth in latin america propelled by liberal reforms under the porfirio diaz regime 1877 1910 mexico s exports expanded at unprecedented rates and this is widely believed to have brought about rapid growth and far reaching structural changes to the domestic economy this paper questions this view using a new and more comprehensive data set it argues that buoyant export performance had relatively little impact on key macroeconomic and sectoral indicators the pre 1911 mexican experience is thus shown to be quite distinct from that of other large primary producing countries such as argentina and canada where rapid economic growth was largely export led a distinctive feature of the mexican economy during the 1877 1911 period was the rapid

unit roots and cointegration in estimating causality between exports and economic growth empirical evidence from the asean countries abstract this paper utilizes cointegration and error correction representation methodology in estimating the long run behavioral relationship between exports and economic growth in the asean countries

growth and exchange rate volatility a panel data analysis the aim of this article is to assess the role of real exchange rate rer volatility on long run economic growth for a set of 82 advanced and emerging economies using a panel data set ranging from 1970 to 2009 with an accurate measure for exchange rate volatility the results for the two step system generalized method of moments gmm panel growth models show that a more less volatile rer has a significant negative positive impact on economic growth the results are also robust for different model specifications

on the real effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty in mexico we estimate an augmented multivariate garch m model of inflation and output growth for mexico at business cycle frequencies the main findings are 1 inflation uncertainty has a negative and significant effect on growth 2 once the effect of inflation uncertainty is accounted for lagged inflation does not have a direct negative effect on output growth 3 however as predicted by friedman and ball higher average inflation raises inflation uncertainty and the overall net effect of average inflation on output growth in mexico is negative that is average inflation is harmful to mexican growth due to its impact on inflation uncertainty 4 the mexican presidential election cycle significantly raises inflation uncertainty both during the year of the election and the year following the election which has correspondingly negative effects on output growth

exogeneity and the export led growth hypothesis the case of china during the past two decades many empirical studies such as balassa 3 4 emery 7 fajana 11 feder 12 maizels 21 rams 22 23 tyler 26 voivodas 27 williamson 28 and others have found that exports promote economic growth in all of these studies a real output growth variable is regressed on either i export levels ii export shares or iii export growth by using a single equation model the statistical significance of the positive coefficient of the export variables has then been interpreted as evidence supporting the export led growth hypothesis chow 6 hsiao 16 and jung and marshall 17 have recently questioned the validity of the above findings this is because the single equation or so called impact studies using ols regression are from an econometric perspective mostly inadequate in addressing the issue of causality if a bidirectional causality between these two variables exports and output exists the estimation and tests used in the impact studies are inconsistent these concerns have subsequently generated a series of new empirical work aimed directly at resolving the issue of causality between exports and output growth 1 2 14 20 the granger 15 causality tests carried out in these studies have revealed that the causal direction in general depends on the country and commodity group under consideration notwithstanding the important contributions of the above mentioned causality studies there are shortcomings that must be dealt with to permit a better understanding of the subject matter first the impact studies presume that the export variable is exogenous this is a rather restrictive assumption as a feedback from output to exports is very likely 17 20 second the existing causality gtudies do not make a clear distinction between exogeneity and causality as suggested by engle hendry and richard 10 hereinafter ehr causality tests such as the granger 15 method are valid only for testing one component of strong exogeneity because they are concerned with sequential marginalizing feedback effects rather than contemporaneous conditioning

an empirical investigation of the causal relationship between openness and economic growth in china this study investigates the causal relationship between openness and economic growth in china the integration and cointegration properties of the data are analysed and the models of granger sims geweke and hsiao are used to identify a bi directional causal relationship between gnp and exports plus imports this bi directional causation is consistent with china s development strategy of protected export promotion

discount rates natural resources and the measurement of aggregate economic growth in africa abstract over the last decade there has been a growing interest in depreciation of natural capital in national income accounts within this literature there has been limited discussion of the sensitivity of measurement to the choice of discount rate and the effect of using depreciated measures of growth in empirical analyses without attempting to estimate or justify a specific discount rate this paper presents alternative sets of growth data for 18 african countries based on different assumptions of the appropriate discount rate to apply to natural capital the data sets are then used in a statistical test of the causes of economic growth results of the statistical analysis indicate sensitivity to the choice of discount rate

exports growth and threshold effects in africa abstract the relationship between openness and growth remains a controversial issue in development economics with many studies focusing on the export growth relationship this paper examines whether the relationship between exports and growth found in large cross section studies also holds in the context of african economies the paper employs threshold regression techniques to examine whether african countries benefit more from exports when they reach a certain level of development or openness our results suggest that there is indeed a positive relationship between exports and growth in africa the threshold regression analysis also suggests that it is not necessary for a country to reach a certain level of development or to have an existing export base for this relationship to hold though it is found that the relationship is stronger for countries that experience higher rates of export growth

cointegration causality and export led growth in mexico 1895 1992 abstract cointegration and granger causality tests show that real exports and real gdp in mexico over 1895 1992 were cointegrated and there was a significant and positive granger causal relationship running from exports to economic growth

a smooth transition logit model of the effects of deregulation in the electricity market summary this paper introduces the smooth transition logit stl model that is designed to detect and model situations in which there is structural change in the behaviour underlying the latent index from which the binary dependent variable is constructed the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the model are derived along with their asymptotic properties together with a lagrange multiplier test of the null hypothesis of linearity in the underlying latent index the development of the stl model is motivated by the desire to assess the impact of deregulation in the queensland electricity market and ascertain whether increased competition has resulted in significant changes in the behaviour of the spot price of electricity specifically with respect to the occurrence of periodic abnormally high prices the model allows the timing of any change to be endogenously determined and also market participants behaviour to change gradually over time the main results provide clear evidence in support of a structural change in the nature of price events and the endogenously determined timing of the change is consistent with the process of deregulation in queensland copyright 2015 john wiley sons ltd

causality between exports and economic growth abstract this paper utilizes granger causality tests in investigating the relationship between exports and national income from a consistent data set for 47 developing countries in africa new empirical results as well as suggestions for future research are presented

global trade integration and economic convergence of developing countries gerschenkron hypothesized that lower income countries would tend to grow more rapidly than higher income countries and therefore that their average incomes would converge since that time the record indicates that the industrialized nations have had relatively slow growth rates while many less developed countries ldcs have had relatively rapid rates of growth although many others have had slower rates of growth and some have been negative furthermore the rates of growth have varied considerably during the four and one half decades since 1952 both among countries and within a country from one year to the next thus convergence remains an issue among development economists and others interested in the topic with frequent concern being expressed about a growing gap between average incomes in the moreand less developed economies of the world in this article we examine convergence and divergence due to differential rates of growth factors that affect growth the role of international trade in the process the policy frameworks that enhance or detract from growth and the research needs and opportunities for agricultural and resource economists a controversial aspect is the influence of trade on the process since most development economists tend to believe that more

re examining export led growth hypothesis a multivariate cointegration analysis for india this paper re examines the export led growth elg hypothesis using a vector autoregressive var model by considering the relationship between real gdp real exports and terms of trade for india during the period 1961 93 in re examining the elg hypothesis this study perhaps for the first time employs a multivariate framework using johansen s model selection and maximum likelihood cointegration procedure the results sugest that there is one long run equilibrium relationship among the three variables and the causal relationship flows from the growth in gdp and terms of trade to the growth in exports the causality from exports to gdp appears to be a short run phenomenon suggesting that the recent export promotion strategies adopted in india have the potential of bearing growth in the future

the role of foreign direct investment in china s post 1978 economic development abstract the evolution of china s policy toward foreign direct investment fdi during the post 1978 period is reviewed and the volume sources geographic distribution and composition of fdi are analyzed it is found that fdi has been positively associated with economic growth and the increase of total fixed asset investment in china foreign direct investment has also forced an increasing number of domestic manufacturers to compete globally it has also been associated with phenomena such as a the accelerating uneven development between the coastal and inland provinces b worsening income distribution and c declining ideological commitment while the opening of the chinese economy to fdi is still an ongoing process positive stimulating effects of foreign direct investment in china are observed and these are found to contribute toward the success of its recent economic reforms

foreign direct investment exports and domestic performance in mexico a causality analysis abstract most empirical work on the effects of outward oriented policies in developing countries has identified openness with trade however openness involves much more than just trade this paper analyses the relationship among trade foreign direct investment and domestic income in mexico during the period 1980 i to 1999 iv on the basis of the granger non causality procedure recently developed by toda and yamamoto journal of econometrics 66 1995 225 and dolado and lutkepohl econometric review 15 1996 369 the results support the effectiveness of the outward looking orientation policy in this country

causality between export growth and industrial development empirial evidence from the nics abstract this paper investigates the causal relationship between export growth and industrial development in eight newly industrializing countries nics results of sims causality test show that for most of the nics there is a strong bidirectional causality between the growth of exports and industrial development these findings support the export led growth strategy in that expansion in exports not only promote the growth of national income but also lead to structural transformation of the developing countries

the role of economic theory in modelling the long run this argues for a closer link between the modelling of the long run relations in applied economics and the intertemporal equilibrium notion from economic theory this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

exports growth and causality in developing countries abstract previous empirical studies have interpreted results in regressions of output variables on export variables as providing support for an export promotion development strategy such an interpretation is questionable since these regressions provide no means of determining the direction of causality this paper performs causality tests between exports and growth for 37 developing countries the results cast considerable doubt on the validity of the export promotion hypothesis

exports growth and causality in ldcs abstract using akaike s optimal lag criterion in a granger causality test the causal relationship between export growth and economic growth and vice versa is re examined for 20 countries it is argued that earlier analyses which ignore optimal lags in granger or sims causality tests suffer from certain shortcomings which are overcome by the present approach the results suggest some support for the export promotion hypothesis especially in the case of well known nics and thus differ from previous applications of granger test which did not adopt an optimum lag criterion and which showed no causality from export growth to economic growth in such cases however they are inconclusive in evaluating competing hypotheses

exports export composition and growth cointegration and causality evidence for malaysia this paper comprehensively tests the export led growth elg hypothesis for malaysia for the period 1955 90 using cointegration and causality testing based on hsiao s synthesis of the granger test and akaike s minimum final prediction error criterion the results provide support for the elg hypothesis aggregate exports granger cause real gdp and non export gdp this relationship is found to be driven by manufactured exports rather than by traditional exports

cointegration causality and export led growth in portugal 1865 1985 abstract this paper considers the relationship between cointegration and causality and uses tests of cointegration as pre tests for granger tests of causality such methods are utilized on portuguese data 1865 1985 where the export led growth hypothesis is rejected in favour of reverse causality

causality between foreign investment and spillover efficiency while there is considerable evidence on the observed linkage between foreign investment and technical efficiency of the developing countries the question of causality between them has not been investigated this paper re examines the relationship between foreign direct investment and technical efficiency in mexico brazil chile singapore and zambia using granger causality tests the results suggest that foreign direct investment and labour productivity are causally independent variables however capital formation of the host country is found to exert causal influence on foreign investment

political cycles in a developing economy effect of elections in indian states the author studies the effect of state legislative assembly elections on the policies of state governments in 14 major states of india from 1960 to 1996 she identifies the effect of the timing of elections using an instrument for the electoral cycle that distinguishes between constitutionally scheduled elections and midterm polls she contrasts two levers of policy manipulation fiscal policy and public service delivery to distinguish between alternative models of political cycles the predictions of three models are tested 1 populist cycles to woo uninformed and myopic voters 2 signaling models with asymmetric information 3 a moral hazard model with high discounting by political agents the empirical results for fiscal policy show that election years have a negative effect on some commodity taxes a positive effect on investment spending but no effect on deficits primarily because consumption spending is reduced with regard to public service delivery elections have a positive and large effect on road construction by state public works departments strikingly the fiscal effects are much smaller than the effect on roads the author argues that the pattern of evidence is inconsistent with the predictions of models of voter myopia and asymmetric information she explores an alternative moral hazard model in which the cycle is generated by high political discounting and career concerns persuade politicians to exert greater effort in election years on the management of public works

exports as a factor of production a consistency test abstract for more than a decade economists have routinely introduced an export growth variable into a crosscountry production function framework as a way of examining various aspects of the growth process in developing countries the export promotion hypothesis in particular while the authors of these studies have rejected the argument that their results are biased by the accounting relationship between exports and gdp some recent studies offer evidence supporting this contention here a simple procedure is proposed to test for this bias the procedure consists of testing directly for the implied lower productivity in the nonexport sector of the economy

political cycles in nontraditional settings theory and evidence from the case of mexico abstract we create a rotating bandit model of executive turnover in politics with autocratic presidents large and centralized governments and limited reelection the model is an extension of mcguire and olson s 1996 work we apply our model by studying the relationship between electoral cycles and economic growth and inflation uncertainty in mexico a country with a highly centralized and powerful government no reelection and until recently little political competition we find a significant postelection economic collapse but no preelection boom which is contrary to the predictions of the traditional political business cycle model we also find evidence that elections create rather than resolve inflation uncertainty which contradicts the predictions of the rational partisan model while our rotating bandit model is largely consistent with the results we find more work is needed on the real effects of politics in the developing world

new developments in trade theory and ldcs abstract this paper surveys the new literature on international trade relevant to the north south controversy in the first part two types of north south models are considered the unequal exchange theory of lewis and emmanuel and the models of dynamic interaction of findlay taylor and others the analysis focuses on the determinants of growth the terms of trade and relative employment in the world economy in the second part the paper reviews the empirical literature on south north and south south trade and the theories of north south technological gaps intra industry trade and external economies finally we analyze the literature on exports and economic growth and the neo classical keynesian and disequilibrium approaches to the theory of import controls

inference on productivity differentials in multi sector models of economic growth non zero marginal factor productivity differentials between sectors are a key feature of multi sector models of economic growth suggesting the potential for welfare gains through reallocation of resources between sectors however in existing studies inference on the parameter reflecting productivity differentials is inadequate reparameterization of hypotheses relating to the productivity differential parameter allows under the usual assumptions exact finite sample inference to be applied confidence intervals based on this approach applied to existing published studies suggest that many of the inferences on the potential gains in growth from exploiting inter sectoral productivity differences are fragile

energy consumption economic growth and co2 emissions in middle east and north african countries this article extends the recent findings of liu 2005 ang 2007 apergis et al 2009 and payne 2010 by implementing recent bootstrap panel unit root tests and cointegration techniques to investigate the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions energy consumption and real gdp for 12 middle east and north african countries mena over the period 1981 2005 our results show that in the long run energy consumption has a positive significant impact on co2 emissions more interestingly we show that real gdp exhibits a quadratic relationship with co2 emissions for the region as a whole however although the estimated long run coefficients of income and its square satisfy the ekc hypothesis in most studied countries the turning points are very low in some cases and very high in other cases hence providing poor evidence in support of the ekc hypothesis co2 emission reductions per capita have been achieved in the mena region even while the region exhibited economic growth over the period 1981 2005 the econometric relationships derived in this paper suggest that future reductions in co2 emissions per capita might be achieved at the same time as gdp per capita in the mena region continues to grow

a multi level panel star model for us manufacturing sectors we introduce a multi level smooth transition model for a panel of time series which can be used to examine the presence of common nonlinear business cycle features across many variables the model is positioned in between a fully pooled model which imposes such common features and a fully heterogeneous model which allows for unrestricted nonlinearity we introduce a second stage model linking the parameters that determine the timing of the switches between business cycle regimes to observable explanatory variables thereby allowing for lead lag relationships across panel members we discuss representation estimation by concentrated simulated maximum likelihood and inference we illustrate our model using quarterly industrial production in 19 us manufacturing sectors and document that there are subtle differences across sectors in leads and lags for switches between business cycle recessions and expansions copyright 2005 john wiley sons ltd