analysis of changing hidden energy flow in vietnam abstract the energy consumption in production process is changing especially in developing countries by substituting technology input output analysis for energy flows has been developing and is one of the best solutions for investigating macroscopic exchanges of both economy and energy since each element in the leontief inverse contains both direct and indirect effects of any change in final demand to separate those direct and indirect effects the power series expansion is available in this work the changes of embodied energy intensity in vietnam from 1996 to 2000 were analyzed using the structural decomposition and its power series expansion by illustrating the change of causal relationship between direct energy consumption and embodied energy consumption the change of hidden energy flow which indicates how the changing embodied energy builds up the change of direct energy consumption in every sector can be seen in the case study the rice processing sector which is one of the important food processing sectors in vietnam is focused by drawing a diagrammatic map for the change of hidden energy flow it is clarified that in the case of raising embodied energy intensity cultivation sector and trade and repaired service sector are the main contributors and on the contrary in the case of reducing embodied energy intensity paper pulp sector is the main contributor

a bibliometric analysis of research on carbon tax from 1989 to 2014 abstract as one of the most cost effective means of emission reduction carbon tax has attracted considerable attention from economists and international organizations and has led to a large number of related research using the bibliometric method this paper characterizes the carbon tax literature from 1989 to 2014 based on the network database platform of web of science the results indicate that the usa occupies a leading position in the carbon tax field the vrije university amsterdam massachusetts institute of technology and stanford university were the most productive research institutes energy policy 143 has been the most productive journal followed by energy economics 44 and energy 38 in general the cooperation of authors institutes and nations are continuing to strengthen however the growth rate at the author level was significantly higher than the others in addition the current key research areas in the carbon tax field based on co keyword analysis are as follows climate change and relevant policy carbon emissions trading socio economic effects of carbon tax renewable energy endogenous technological change and carbon capture and storage the results of this paper will help researchers grasp the current research in the carbon tax field but also provide a supporting role for future work

economic analysis of coal price electricity price adjustment in china based on the cge model in recent years coal price has risen rapidly which has also brought a sharp increase in the expenditures of thermal power plants in china meantime the power production price and power retail price have not been adjusted accordingly and a large number of thermal power plants have incurred losses the power industry is a key industry in the national economy as such a thorough analysis and evaluation of the economic influence of the electricity price should be conducted before electricity price adjustment is carried out this paper analyses the influence of coal price adjustment on the electric power industry and the influence of electricity price adjustment on the macroeconomy in china based on computable general equilibrium models the conclusions are as follows 1 a coal price increase causes a rise in the cost of the electric power industry but the influence gradually descends with increase in coal price and 2 an electricity price increase has an adverse influence on the total output gross domestic product gdp and the consumer price index cpi electricity price increases have a contractionary effect on economic development and consequently electricity price policy making must consequently consider all factors to minimize their adverse influence

an investigation of the role of china s urban population on coal consumption abstract this paper investigates the causal relationship between urban population real gdp electricity production and coal consumption in china for the period 1971 2009 using a vector autoregression framework and a modified version of the granger 1969 causality test proposed by toda and yamamoto j econ 66 1995 225 the results suggest that there is causality running from gdp to coal consumption the variance decomposition analysis report that urban population and coal affect electricity production variability over the forecast period we also find that increasing urban population may negatively affect china s gdp over time policy measures aimed at influencing gdp could ultimately affect coal consumption

impacts of biodiesel production on croatian economy the aim of this paper is to assess the direct and indirect impacts on a national economy from biodiesel rapeseed methyl ester rme production using input output i o analysis biodiesel development in croatia is used as a case study for croatia as for many other countries in europe biodiesel is a new activity not included in the existing i o sectoral accounts for this reason the i o table has to be modified accordingly before being able to quantify the effect of an exogenous demand for biodiesel impacts in terms of output income and employment lead to the conclusion that biodiesel production could have significant positive net impact on the croatian economy despite the high level of subsidies for rapeseed growing

the crucial relationship among energy commodity prices evidence from the spanish electricity market the main purpose of this article is twofold to analyze a the long term relation among the commodities prices and between spot electricity market price and commodity prices and b the short term dynamics among commodity prices and between electricity prices and commodity prices data between 2002 and 2005 from the spanish electricity market was used econometric methods were used in the analysis of the commodity spot price namely the vector autoregression model the vector error correction model and the granger causality test the co integration approach was used to analyze the long term relationship between the common stochastic trends of four fossil fuel prices one of the findings in the long term relation is that the prices of fuel and the prices of brent are intertwined though the prices of brent ten to move to reestablish the price equilibrium another finding is that the price of electricity is explained by the evolution of the natural gas series

china s balance of emissions embodied in trade approaches to measurement and allocating international responsibility international trade is characterized not only by the flow of capital and goods but also by the energy and emissions embodied in goods during their production this paper investigates the evolving role that chinese trade is playing in the response to climate change by estimating the scale of emissions embodied in china s current trade pattern and demonstrating the magnitude of the difference between the emissions it produces some of which are incurred to meet the consumption demands of the rest of the world and the emissions embodied in the goods it consumes estimating china s emissions on a consumption rather than a production basis both lowers its responsibility for carbon dioxide co2 emissions in 2006 from 5 500 to 3 840mtco2 and reduces the growth rate of emissions from an average of 12 5 per cent p a to 8 7 per cent p a between 2001 and 2006 the analysis indicates that a reliable consumption based accounting methodology is feasible and could improve our understanding of which actors and states are responsible for emissions for example recent emissions reductions by developed countries may lack credibility if production has merely been displaced to countries such as china moreover in the current institutional context production methodologies encourage leakages through trade that may do more to displace than to reduce emissions both equity and efficiency concerns therefore suggest that emissions embodied in trade should receive special attention in the distribution of post kyoto abatement burdens

the demand for education with power equalizing aid abstract state grants in aid modify the full fiscal income and tax price for education services faced by voters in local school districts if aid is non linear in the local property tax rate as occurs with district power equalization coupled with an aid floor then individual budget constraints are non linear and least squares estimation is inappropriate we develop and estimate a model that incorporates these effects derive and extensively illustrate the comparative statics present global and local elasticities and simulate the impact of parameter changes on the variance of spending and the cost of the program

a rentier theory of subnational regimes fiscal federalism democracy and authoritarianism in the argentine provinces levels of subnational democracy vary significantly within countries around the world drawing on fiscal theories of the state the author argues that this variance is often explained by a type of rentierism that is not geographically determined by natural resources but politically created by certain fiscal federalism arrangements he posits that less democratic regimes are more likely in rentier provinces those that receive disproportionately large central government transfers and practically forgo local taxation intergovernmental revenue sharing rules that produce large vertical fiscal imbalances and favor the economically smaller districts provide their incumbents with generous fiscal federalism rents that allow them to restrict democratic contestation and weaken checks and balances statistical evidence from a panel data set of the argentine provinces strongly confirms this expectation even after controlling for standard alternative explanations such as level of development sensitivity analysis shows that this finding is extremely robust to alternative panel estimators qualitative and quantitative evidence suggests that the effect of heavy public spending on the economic autonomy of political actors is the main causal mechanism at work

climate policy and energy intensive manufacturing a comprehensive analysis of the effectiveness of cost mitigation provisions in the american energy and security act of 2009 abstract in response to the ongoing climate policy debates this study examines the cost impacts of carbon pricing legislation on selected us energy intensive manufacturing industries specifically it evaluates output based rebate measures and the border adjustment provision specified in the bill and tests the effectiveness of cost containment features of the policy such as the international offsets under various market assumptions results of the examination confirm that in all policy cases or industries the output based rebates would effectively mitigate the manufacturers carbon pricing costs in the short to medium term however as the rebates decline after 2020 especially in a case where low carbon electricity generation or international offsets are not readily available or implemented these industries would suffer greater declines in profitability at the same time the study s findings were mixed concerning the effectiveness of the border adjustment measure in reducing cost impacts after 2020 while border adjustments could reduce costs to us manufacturing sectors at least temporarily they could create problems for domestic downstream producers and exports under cost pass along conditions however at best the output based rebates international offset and border adjustment and measures primarily buy time for manufacturers the only long term solution is for eite industries to invest in energy saving and next generation low carbon technologies

energy embodied in the international trade of china an energy input output analysis abstract growing international trade has not only positively affected the people s republic of china s china s economic development but also expanded the exportation of energy embodied in goods during their production this energy flow out will pose risks to china s rational utilization of natural resources as well as environmental protection in this paper we evaluate the energy embodied in goods produced in china during 1992 2005 and use input output structural decomposition analysis to identify five key factors causing the changes of energy embodied in exports direct primary energy efficiency primary energy consumption structure structure of intermediate inputs structure of exports and scale of exports for the three sub periods of 1992 1997 1997 2002 and 2002 2005 results show that china is a net exporter of energy and the energy embodied in exports tends to increase over time the expanding total volume of exports and increasing exports of energy intensive goods tend to enlarge the energy embodied in exports within all three sub periods but these driving forces were offset by a considerable improvement of energy efficiency and changes in primary energy consumption structure from 1992 to 2002 and the effects of structure of intermediate input only in the sub period from 1992 to 1997 from 2002 to 2005 the sharp augmentation of energy embodied in exports was driven by all the five factors our research has practical implications for the chinese economy results of this study suggest that the energy embodied in trade should receive special attentions in energy policies design to limit the energy resource out flow and pollution generation

state responses to fiscal crises the effects of budgetary institutions and politics this paper explores the dynamics of state taxes and spending during the late 1980s when regional economic downturns and increased expenditure demands led to substantial state budget deficits more restrictive state fiscal institutions such as no deficit carryover rules and tax and expenditure limitations are correlated with more rapid fiscal adjustment to unexpected deficits political factors are also important when a single party controls the state house and the governorship deficit adjustment is much faster than when party control is divided in gubernatorial election years tax increases and spending cuts are both significantly smaller than at other times

a computable general equilibrium model of intergovernmental aid abstract this paper introduces a theoretical and a calibrated computable general equilibrium model of intergovernmental relations in which heterogeneous agents i are endowed with income and houses ii are fully mobile between multiple jurisdictions and iii vote in both local and state elections to determine local property and state income tax rates three different types of intergovernmental programs are analyzed i redistributive revenue sharing ii district power equalization and iii deductibility of local taxes the approach facilitates a heretofore difficult comparative analysis in that it provides for integrated investigation of these programs in a single general equilibrium model

quantifying the impacts of energy price reform on living expenses in saudi arabia abstract as part of vision 2030 saudi arabia has initiated a broad based energy reform programme aimed at gradually reducing its dependence on oil this paper assesses the impacts of energy price reforms on living expenses of various household groups in saudi arabia for this purpose the input output table combined with household expenditure data are used to model the impacts results show that the distributional impacts of energy price reforms are regressive with low income households experiencing a higher increase in living expenses compared to high income households the impacts are primarily instigated by rising prices of energy intensive products after decomposing the impacts into direct and indirect effects it was found that indirect effect is not only responsible for a considerable rise in household expenditure on energy intensive products but it is also distributionally regressive it is therefore vital for policymakers to review and fine tune the social protection system to protect poor households against reforms

potential impacts of electricity price changes on price formation in the economy a social accounting matrix price modeling analysis for turkey recent reforms in the turkish electricity sector since 2001 aim to introduce a tariff system that reflects costs this is expected to affect the production and consumer prices of electricity the changes in electricity prices are then reflected in production costs in other segments of the economy subsequently producer and consumer prices will be affected the potential impact of the changes in electricity prices that the ongoing electricity reforms in turkey will bring about may have important implications on the price formation in economic activities and the cost of living for households this paper evaluates the potential impacts of changes in electricity prices from a social accounting matrix sam price modeling perspective it is found that based on the estimated price multipliers that prices in the energy producing sectors mining and iron and steel manufacturing sectors would be affected more severely than the remaining sectors of the economy consumer prices are affected slightly less than producer prices

economic and environmental impacts of electricity subsidy reform in kuwait a general equilibrium analysis abstract this paper examined economic and environmental impacts of reducing electricity subsidy in kuwait a social accounting matrix sam was constructed together with energy consumption with co2 emission were compiled and then calibrated with a computable general equilibrium cge model a simulation experiment was conducted by applying a 30 reduction of subsidy to the electricity sector this policy shock was applied to the model in two scenarios in scenario 1 the subsidy reduction was applied and results were compared with the baseline scenario given in the sam this yielded adverse economic effects on most endogenous variables but positive environmental benefits in terms of co2 emission reduction electricity tariff increased by three fold from 2 to 6 fils 0 7 cents to 2 cents per kwh gdp fell by 0 5 and aggregate household welfare declined by 0 8 in scenario 2 subsidy reduction was accompanied with cash transfers to compensate user losses the subsidy deducted from the electricity sector was allocated to users according to their share in base year total expenditure on electricity the results indicated that such transfers would reduce the adverse economic effects co2 emissions fell by 0 5 the gdp and household welfare effects were reversed rising by 0 4 and 0 1 respectively

counting the number of parties an alternative index i propose an alternative index to operationalize the variable number and size of parties in a party system to support it i present a critical overview of the two most common indices laakso and taagepera s effective number of parties and kesselman and wildgen s hyperfractionalization showing the causes of their weakness then i explain the computational logic of my alternative number of parties and compare it with the other two using hypothetical cases after that i contrast the laakso taagepera index with mine using data from actual elections between 1945 and 1981 i conclude that my index outperforms the other two as an operationalization of the variable number and size of parties

centralization fiscal federalism and private school attendance a cge model is used to analyze the impact of public school financing on private school attendance the common perception that public school finance centralization will necessarily lead to greater private school attendance is not correct in such a model even when that centralization involves an extreme equalization as in california furthermore if centralization is less dramatic as in most states declines in private school attendance are even more pronounced this weakens the speculation that low exit rates to private schools in centralizing states imply that general public school quality does not drop as a result of such centralization

exploring the impacts of a carbon tax on the chinese economy using a cge model with a detailed disaggregation of energy sectors abstract this paper applies a computable general equilibrium model to investigate the impacts of a carbon tax on china s economy and carbon emissions based on china s 2010 input output table to obtain robust simulation results we further disaggregate the energy sectors into eight departments according to energy use characteristics the empirical results indicate that a moderate carbon tax would significantly reduce carbon emissions and fossil fuel energy consumption and slightly reduce the pace of economic growth however a large carbon tax has a significantly negative impact on china s economy and social welfare moreover a large carbon tax would entail marked price changes in china of the fossil fuels in use reducing coal consumption would have the greatest impact on reducing carbon emissions and the ad valorem duty rate for coal would be the highest after levying a carbon tax because it has the highest carbon emission coefficient therefore china should strive to promote clean coal technology which may be crucial to reducing carbon emissions moreover levying a carbon tax would improve the use of clean energy which would be an effective means of reducing carbon emissions therefore the chinese government should formulate the regulations for and pass a carbon tax as early as possible to achieve its carbon emission abatement target and further contribute to mitigating climate change

resistance to reform status quo bias in the presence of individual specific uncertainty comment why do governments so often fail to adopt policies which economists consider to be efficiency enhancing our answer to this question relies on uncertainty regarding the distribution of gains and losses from reform we show that there is a bias towards the status quo and hence against efficiency enhancing reforms whenever some of the individual gainers and losers from reform cannot be identified beforehand there are reforms which once adopted will receive adequate political support but would have failed to carry the day ex ante the argument does not rely on risk aversion irrationality or hysteresis due to sunk costs jel d72 f13 why do governments so often fail to adopt policies that economists consider to be efficiency enhancing this is one of the fundamental questions of political economy the answer usually relies on what may be

addressing the competitiveness effects of taxing carbon in china domestic tax cuts versus border tax adjustments abstract this study focuses on the international competitiveness effects of levying a carbon tax in china based on a computable general equilibrium model this study analysed the impacts of a carbon tax on different sectors from the aspect of changes in market shares of domestic producers in the domestic markets and changes in exports the effects of different measures including domestic tax cuts and border tax adjustments in alleviating the unfavourable competitiveness impacts were also analysed and compared as were the impacts of different tax schemes on the macro economy sectoral profits and carbon emissions the results show that without any complementary measures a carbon tax would negatively shock the domestic market shares and exports of almost all tradable sectors and the profits of almost all sectors as for cushioning the unfavourable effects the domestic tax cuts are able to ease the negative impacts on the domestic market shares and exports of almost all tradable sectors moreover the unfavourable impacts of domestic tax cuts on both the macro economy and the sectoral profits are obviously smaller than those of the other schemes regardless of the use of the same tax rate or emission reduction amount among the border tax adjustment measures the best performance in general corresponds to the measure purely implementing adjustments on exports

bailouts budget constraints and leviathans comparative federalism and lessons from the early united states recent research on federations particularly in the developing world emphasizes the importance of hard budget constraints and a strong central government to attenuate intergovernmental economic conflicts such research fails on two counts first it does not explain how hard budget constraints emerge or become self enforcing second it does not take into account the insight of the market preserving federalism literature that central governments strong enough to impose restraint on regions are likely too powerful to be checked in a manner consistent with the longterm health of markets unfortunately the market preserving federalism literature itself provides little insight into how to move from a market distorting to a market preserving equilibrium this article answers these theoretical shortcomings with reference to the evolution of political competition at the regional level and the representation of those regions at the national level more specifically whereas regional competition determines the s

inequality in the local public sector effects on renters welfare of changes in local government spending are examined in a multijurisdiction model in equilibrium each income class chooses the jurisdiction whose combination of local public output and housing price maximizes utility comparative static analysis of this equilibrium is used to show how inequality in local public expenditure benefits low income residents if low income residents are observed to choose jurisdictions with low levels of per capita public expenditure then they may be worse off by outside aid which increases local public expenditure in their jurisdictions the advantages of inequality in the local public sector also exist when a program of tax base equalization is introduced

energy caps alternative climate policy instruments for china abstract decoupling fossil energy demand from economic growth is crucial for china s sustainable development especially for addressing severe local air pollution and global climate change an absolute cap on coal or fossil fuel consumption has been proposed as a means to support the country s energy and climate policy objectives we evaluate potential energy cap designs that differ in terms of target fuel point of control and national versus regional allowance trading using a global numerical general equilibrium model that separately represents 30 provinces in china first we simulate a coal cap and find that relative to a cap on all fossil fuels it is significantly more costly and results in high localized welfare losses second we compare fossil energy cap designs and find that a national cap on downstream fossil energy use with allowance trading across provinces is the most cost effective third we find that a national fossil energy cap with trading is nearly as cost effective as a national co2 emissions trading system that penalizes energy use based on carbon content as a fossil energy cap builds on existing institutions in china it offers a viable intermediate step toward a full fledged co2 emissions trading system

divided government fiscal institutions and budget deficits evidence from the states does partisan control of american state government have systematic effects on state spending and taxing levels does divided control affect the government s ability to make hard decisions do institutional rules like legal deficit carryover restrictions matter using a formal model of fiscal policy to guide empirical analysis of data covering the american states from 1968 to 1987 we conclude that 1 aggregate state budget totals are driven by different factors under democrats and republicans the net result being that democrats target spending and taxes to higher shares of state level personal income 2 divided government is less able to react to revenue shocks that lead to budget deficits particularly where different parties control each chamber of the legislature and 3 unified party governments with restricted ability to carry deficits into the next fiscal year outside the south have sharper reactions to negative revenue shocks than those without restrictions

economic incentives and political institutions spending and voting in school budget referenda abstract allocation of resources in the local public sector involves economic and political forces in many u s states the bulk of spending on public education is subject to referendum we link spending proposals to referendum outcomes our model makes use of voting data to shed light on the extent to which referenda constrain spending we use data from school budget referenda in 544 new york school districts for the 1975 1976 school year our econometric results and simulations based on them reveal considerable sensitivity of spending to the form of the state grants in aid structure as well as to the referendum requirement in addition large school districts appear to behave more like budget maximizers than do small districts where proposals appear more in line with median voter demands

effects of a carbon price in the u s on economic sectors resource use and emissions an input output approach abstract despite differences in their implementation most carbon policies aim to have similar outcomes effectively raising the price of carbon intensive products relative to non carbon intensive products while it is possible to predict the simple broad scale economic impacts of raising the price of carbon intensive products the demand for non carbon intensive products will increase understanding the economic and environmental impacts of carbon policies throughout the life cycle of both types of products is more difficult using the example of a carbon tax this study proposes a methodology that integrates short term policy induced consumer demand changes into the input output framework to analyze the environmental and economic repercussions of a policy environmental repercussions include the direct and the indirect impacts on emissions materials flow in the economy and the reliance on various ecosystem goods and services the approach combines economic data with data about physical flow of fossil fuels between sectors consumption of natural resources and emissions from each sector it applies several input output modeling equations sequentially and uses various levels of aggregation disaggregation it is illustrated with the data for the 2002 u s economy and physical flows the framework provides insight into the short term complex interactions between carbon price and its economic and environmental effects

assessing the influence of manufacturing sectors on electricity demand a cross country input output approach abstract the production and consumption of electricity is a major source of co2 emissions in europe and elsewhere in turn the manufacturing sectors are significant end users of electricity in contrast to most papers in the literature which focus on the supply side this study tackles the demand side of electricity an input output approach combined with a sensitivity analysis has been developed to analyse the direct and indirect consumptions of electricity by eighteen manufacturing sectors in fifteen european countries with indirect electricity demand related to the purchase of industrial products from other sectors which in turn require the consumption of electricity in their manufacturing processes we identify the industrial transactions and sectors which account for a greater share of electricity demand in addition the impact of an electricity price increase on the costs and prices of manufacturing products is simulated through a price model allowing us to identify those sectors whose manufacturing costs are most sensitive to an increase in the electricity price

carbon pricing and energy efficiency improvement why to miss the interaction for developing economies an illustrative cge based application to the pakistan case abstract carbon energy taxes and energy efficiency improvement are studied well in the recent years for their potential adverse impacts on economy especially for lost production and international competitiveness and rebound effects however little attention has been paid to investigate them jointly which can not only prevent fall of energy services cost and thereby rebound effect but reduce the associated macroeconomic costs this study thus employs a 20 sector cge model to explore separately the impacts of carbon tax and its coordinated implementation with energy efficiency improvement on the pakistan economy the country underwent enormous pressure of energy security issues as well as climate change fallouts in the last couple of years and can be regarded as a suitable candidate for energy environmental conservation policies to be considered at a broader context with more concrete efforts the simulation results show that the impact of carbon tax on gdp is negative but resulting reductions in pollutant emissions are relatively high moreover the gdp is expected to grow comparatively positive when analyzed with improvements in energy efficiency with even higher decline in energy consumption demand and so emissions this simultaneous economic and environmental improvement would thus have positive implications regarding sustainable development of the country

the political process and the use of debt financing by state governments empirical evidence offered in this study suggests that decisions by state government officials to effect debt financed spending depend in part on the state s gubernatorial election cycle more specifically the results reveal relative increases in state debt issues in anticipation of elections and furthermore they reveal that such increases are more significant for states characterized by high interparty political competition while theoretical limitations preclude a definitive explanation for these results the evidence is consistent with a view of state political markets where incumbent parties manipulate public policy so as to enhance the probability of success in pending elections this insight is significant in that it suggests a relationship between public policy decisions and election cycles in a context heretofore unexplored

the welfare effects of intergovernmental grants in an economy with independent jurisdictions abstract a general equilibrium model is presented of an economy where mobile and immobile households engage in decentralized market behavior and where immobile households control the expenditure and tax policy of each local government subject to a local budget constraint it is shown how central government grant policy which is a formula with lump sum matching and population elements affects the general equilibrium of the system determined through market and local political decisions the welfare effects of grants are discussed with particular emphasis on distortions that may arise at lower levels of decision making that grants may be useful in partially or completely correcting

disaggregating input output models a general solution is given to the problem with little computation construct a more disaggregated input output model from an available model using information about some activities that were aggregated when the available model was built the solution is exact and explicit when only partial information is available the exact solution guides its user to inexpensive and precise sensitivity analysis detailed consideration is accorded to the solution of the most frequently occurring problem the disaggregation of one sector into two 14 references

the politics of federalism in argentina and its implications for governance and accountability summary this paper contributes to an agenda that views the effects of federalism and decentralization as dependent on the incentives of national and subnational political actors it studies the mechanisms by which subnational actors affect decisions at the central level in the context of a highly decentralized middle income democracy argentina in this federal country provincial actors and concerns weigh heavily on national decisions most argentine provinces are dominated by entrenched elites with limited political competition weak division of powers and clientelistic political linkages provincial dominance and national relevance reinforce each other dragging argentine politics toward the practices and features of its most background regions

oil shock and economic growth in japan a nonlinear approach abstract this paper investigates the relationship between oil price shock and economic growth on the basis of the nonlinear approach developed by hamilton hamilton j 2001 a parametric approach to flexible nonlinear inference econometrica 537 573 we use the approach also in hamilton hamilton j 2003 what is an oil shock journal of econometrics 363 398 of capturing this relationship in japan in a nonlinear model the idea is that negative oil price shocks price increase tend to have larger impact on growth than positive shocks do our empirical evidence confirmed the existence of nonlinearity between these two variables and a flexible nonlinear model is estimated additionally several other form of nonlinearity are estimated and tested

the linkage between oil price shocks and economic growth with inflation in the presence of technological advances a cge model abstract this study examines whether oil price shocks are inflationary in the us we increase the price of oil in the year 2000 in a manner consistent with the oil price shock of 1973 74 and let the economy experience a hicksian technological change then using a dynamic computable general equilibrium cge model we conduct our analyses under two separate cases 1 regular economic growth and 2 low economic growth we also run three technological scenarios 1 no technology change 2 technological advances in the manufacturing and refining sectors and 3 technological advances in the manufacturing refining chemical and service sectors the effects of these changes are analyzed over the next 20 years until the year 2020 our results suggest that while a shock of the magnitude experienced in the 1970s will have a fairly severe effect on such things as gasoline and refinery prices the aggregate price changes will be largely dissipated over time at the aggregate level furthermore the aggregate level of prices cpi and ppi will fall over time as the level of technological advances rise under both growth scenarios there are several reasons why we would obtain such results first of all the structure of the us economy has changed remarkably since the early 1970s rather than being a manufacturing based economy the us is largely a service based economy today and hence it is more protected form raw materials shortages second the economy has had a steady history of strong growth and the faster an economy grows the quicker disruptions to that economy are dissipated finally our economy is experiencing rapid technological advances in information systems which have served to reduce costs and maintain output in a wide number of economic sectors

impacts of a rise in electricity tariff on prices of other products in vietnam abstract this study examines the impacts of increasing electricity tariff to the long run marginal cost on prices of other products using a static input output approach it is found that such an increase would drive up the prices of all other products although the aggregate price impact from such an increase is not large it would be socially difficult to implement this increase at one time particularly given that vietnam is facing high inflation rate a roadmap for electricity tariff increase is thus discussed

the costs of mitigating carbon emissions a review of methods and findings from european studies abstract conventional wisdom has it that top down studies of mitigation costs are too pessimistic while bottom up studies are too optimistic in examining mitigation cost studies for western europe this paper finds this interpretation to be flawed the paper expands the analytical framework for interpreting mitigation cost studies evaluates the treatment of no regrets options and other input assumptions in the various studies and includes findings from recent integrated top down bottom up modeling assessments not covered in the ipcc report based on these new elements it is found that mitigation costs tend to be overestimated not only in top down studies but also in bottom up studies given this pervasive bias toward pessimism the body of existing mitigation cost assessments for western europe can be read as follows over the next three to four decades a combination of tax shifts market transformation instruments and policies to reform subsidies and internalize non climatic externalities could cut carbon emissions in western europe by 40 50 relative to the base year at no loss or at a gain in gdp averaged over the medium term and including a phase in period an economically optimal rate of implementing western europe s no regrets potentials is found to be in the neighborhood of 2 per year relative to base year levels

economic and environmental effects of a co2 tax in latin american countries abstract the environmental extension from the leontief pricing model is used to simulate the economic and environmental effects of setting different co2 tax rates in three latin american countries brazil mexico and chile it considers a regulatory scenario in which the tax is applied only to emissions from the electricity sector and another scenario in which tax is applied to emissions from all economic sectors the results show that the effects of a co2 tax on sectoral prices and emissions in each country are very different for the same tax rate but these effects are similar in each country when comparing both regulatory scenarios this is explained by the composition carbonization of the electric generation and energy matrix of each of the countries which significantly affects the effectiveness of co2 taxes to reduce emissions in addition the economic sectors most affected by the different regulatory scenarios are similar in all countries

mobility and redistribution the ability of individuals to move freely from one jurisdiction to another is generally seen as a constraint on the amount of redistribution that each jurisdiction within a system of governments can undertake in this paper we look at this proposition by developing a positive analysis of income redistribution by local governments in a federal system we ask how much redistribution occurs when only local governments can have tax transfer instruments individuals can move freely among jurisdictions and voters in each jurisdiction are fully aware of the migration effects of redistributive policies local redistribution is shown to induce sorting of the population with the poorest households located in the communities that provide the most redistribution while the threat of out migration affects the potential for redistribution our results suggest that significant local redistribution is nonetheless feasible numerical computations indicate that the proportion of residents who are renters is a major factor affecting the local choice of level of redistribution

physical and monetary input output analysis what makes the difference abstract a recent paper in which embodied land appropriation of exports was calculated using a physical input output model ecological economics 44 2003 137 151 initiated a discussion in this journal concerning the conceptual differences between input output models using a coefficient matrix based on physical input output tables piots in a single unit of mass and input output models using a coefficient matrix based on monetary input output tables miots extended by a coefficient vector of physical factor inputs per unit of output in this contribution we argue that the conceptual core of the discrepancies found when comparing outcomes obtained using physical vs monetary input output models lies in the assumptions regarding unit prices and not in the treatment of waste as has been claimed ecological economics 48 2004 9 17 we first show that a basic static input output model with the coefficient matrix derived from a monetary input output table is equivalent to one where the coefficient matrix is derived from an input output table in physical units provided that the assumption of unique sectoral prices is satisfied we then illustrate that the input output tables that were used in the original publication do not satisfy the assumption of homogenous sectoral prices even after the inconsistent treatment of waste in the piot is corrected we show that substantially different results from the physical and the monetary models in fact remain finally we identify and discuss possible reasons for the observed differences in sectoral prices faced by different purchasing sectors and draw conclusions for the future development of applied physical input output analysis

mobility targeting and private school vouchers simulations are derived from a three district model of low middle and highincome school districts calibrated to new york data with housing stocks that vary within and across districts in this model it is demonstrated that school district targeted vouchers are similar in their impact to nontargeted vouchers but vastly different from vouchers targeted to low income households furthermore strong migration effects are shown to significantly improve the likely equity consequences of voucher programs jel 122 128 h73 persistent frustration with the perceived low quality of public education exacerbated by concerns over the inherently unequal levels of public school quality across school districts has caused policy makers courts and researchers to investigate modifications and alternatives to the current public school system one idea that has received increasing academic and public attention is that of private school vouchers with proponents arguing that the competitive pressures of voucher programs would cause improvements in the efficiency of the publicschool system while at the same time addressing equity concerns if vouchers can be targeted to low income households or low income school districts but aside from a few limited experiments in some u s cities our experience with vouchers in the united states remains virtually nonexistent this limits the amount of information researchers can derive from standard empirical analysis in that it forces them to rely on only current nonvoucher induced differences in competition despite important suggestive results such work may not anticipate all the impacts from a large scale policy such as the voucher policies currently under discussion at the same time theoretical models of school finance are also limited in that they often either focus on only one particular aspect of the general equilibrium school finance problem or they are too rich and complex to yield crisp predictions

behavior of the firm under regulatory constraint a recent article by akira takayama discusses an earlier paper by harvey averch and leland l johnson on fair rate of return regulation of public utilities although takayama p 255 agrees with averch and johnson s general conclusions that a firm will tend to increase its investment with the introduction of an active constraint on its rate of return he criticizes the a j argument as being confusing ambiguous and in error takayama then attempts a clarification and presents a new formulation which leads to the a j result quoted above this comment will discuss several of takayama s criticisms in addition to showing that the so called a j effect cannot be derived from the basic assumptions made by both averch and johnson and takayama 1 we will show that the very assumptions used to prove the a j effect by defining the region of x require an assumption that the a j effect exists in the first place

economic crisis and policy choice the politics of adjustment in the third world the acute economic pressures of the 1980s have forced virtually all of latin america and africa and some countries in asia into painful austerity programs and difficult economic reforms scholars have intensively analyzed the economics of this situation but they have given much less attention to the political forces involved in this volume a number of eminent contributors analyze the politics of adjustment in thirteen countries and nineteen governments drawing comparisons not only across the full set of cases but also within clusters selected to clarify specific issues why do some governments respond promptly to signs of economic trouble while others muddle indecisively for years why do some confine their response to temporary macroeconomic measures while others adopt broader even sweeping programs of reform what leads some countries to experiment with heterodox approaches while most however reluctantly pursue orthodox courses why confronted with intense political protest have some governments persisted while others have altered or abandoned course the answers to these questions are political not economic and they are examined here by thomas m callaghy stephan haggard miles kahler robert r kauman joan m nelson and barbara stallings

the asymmetry of the impact of oil price shocks on economic activities an application of the multivariate threshold model this paper applies the multivariate threshold model to investigate the impacts of an oil price change and its volatility on economic activities changes in industrial production and real stock returns the statistical test on the existence of a threshold effect indicates that a threshold value does exist using monthly data of the us canada and japan during the period from 1970 to 2002 we conclude i the optimal threshold level seems to vary according to how an economy depends on imported oil and the attitude towards adopting energy saving technology ii an oil price change or its volatility has a limited impact on the economies if the change is below the threshold levels iii if the change is above threshold levels it appears that the change in oil price better explains macroeconomic variables than the volatility of the oil price and iv if the change is above threshold levels a change in oil price or its volatility explains the model better than the real interest rate

back rooms or ballot boxes candidate nomination in argentina how political parties select their candidates for public office profoundly affects the types of people who are elected as well as how these people behave in office this selection process also provides important insights on how parties function internally and on where political power is located within a country only a few comparative studies of nomination procedures exist and none explain why some parties at some points in time select candidates via direct primaries and others do not the authors analyze an original data set of 610 district level nomination processes for the biennial argentine chamber of deputies elections held between 1983 and 2001 they conclude that several specific institutional and partisan features have a prominent effect on the probability that a political party will choose its candidates at the ballot box direct primary rather than in a smoke filled back room elite arrangement

market driven coal prices and state administered electricity prices in china this paper analyzes how the chinese government adjusts electricity prices for both industrial and residential users in response to changes in coal prices using an asymmetric error correction model our results show that there is a long term relation between the coal price and electricity prices but the relationship is weak especially for residential pricing in the short run we find electricity prices are adjusting faster upwards than downwards price adjustment towards long run equilibrium is faster for residential users upwards than downwards on the other hand we find no evidence of asymmetric equilibrium adjustment in the electricity price for industrial use the weak long term relationship reflects the rigidity in electricity pricing and government s reluctance to subject end users to fluctuations of raw materials cost shifts

effects of the internalization of the social cost of global and local air pollutants in chile abstract in 2017 environmental taxes on global pollutants co2 and local air pollutants so2 nox and pm began to be collected to reduce emissions in chile however large emitting sources only are subject to environmental taxes and the tax rates are much lower than the social cost of these pollutants which does not allow to fully internalize the generated damages for the above this study uses the environmental extension of the leontief price model and microsimulations to estimate the economic environmental distributive and poverty short term effects associated with the application of pigouvian taxes on all emissions generated by productive activities the results show that currently there are too many resources allocated to activities that generate strong negative externalities mainly in the electricity and transport sectors specifically the emissions are reduced almost 10 times more than in the current tax scenario if environmental taxes equal to social costs are applied but relevant negative indirect effects are generated that make the practical application of a tax of these characteristics unrealistic for example there is a fall between 1 2 and 2 9 in employment slightly worsening the income distribution and increases the poverty rate between 0 9 and 2 3 percentage points

local property and state income taxes the role of interjurisdictional competition and collusion this paper addresses two long standing positive questions in public finance i why is the property tax despite widespread popular complaints against its fairness the almost exclusive tax instrument used by local governments and ii why do we consistently observe higher levels of governments states undermining local property tax systems through income tax funded grants and state imposed caps on local property tax rates a new intuitive argument to explain question is presented and tested in simulations using a computable general equilibrium model with parameters set to be consistent with new jersey data both the intuitive argument and the simulation results indicate that setting local income tax rates to zero is a dominant strategy for community planners when faced with popular sentiment against the property tax community planners can collude and introduce local income taxes simultaneously to prevent adverse general equilibrium migration and price changes since zero income tax rates are dominan

modeling prices in a sam structure the aim of this paper is to develop an intersectoral price model in a social accounting matrix traditionally the emphasis of the social accounting methodology has been on quantity oriented models and their income effects in contrast the authors use the social accounting matrix to develop a price model that captures the interdependence among activities households and factors and provides a complete set of accounting prices furthermore they use decomposition techniques to trace underlying general equilibrium effects copyright 1995 by mit press

calculation of embodied energy in sino usa trade 1997 2011 abstract in order to find efficient trade measures to reduce china s energy consumption and to provide theoretical support for the climate talks between china and america we investigate the impact of sino usa trade on energy consumption from the perspective of embodied energy an environmental input output life cycle assessment eio lca model was established to calculate the total energy consumption coefficient the direct consumption coefficient and the complete consumption coefficient of the sectors of the national economies of china and america after taking into consideration the data of every sector of the national economy in sino usa trade energy embodied in the import and export trade between china and america was calculated to verify the real energy flows in sino usa trade the research results suggest the following china is the net exporter of embodied energy in sino usa trade and coal crude oil and natural gas are the major components in 1997 2011 the net exports of china s embodied energy totaled 1523 082 200 t of standard coal the amount of china s energy consumption increased by 895 527 900 t of standard coal and america s energy consumption decreased by 11 871 200 t of standard coal as a result of sino usa trade on this basis corresponding policies and recommendations are proposed

the reform of the european energy tax directive exploring potential economic impacts in the eu27 abstract the aim of this study is to analyze the effect that the energy tax directive reform proposed in 2011 would have if implemented on the level of prices in the different sectors of the 27 countries of the european union we apply a multiregional and multisectoral model of trade flows that takes into account all the intersectoral and intercountry interdependences in the production processes using the world input output database we perform two different simulations the first one considers the tax changes proposed by the reform the second one shows the impact the reform would have entailed if it were applied also to sectors belonging to the european trade system the main finding of the first simulation shows that the new energy tax regime would have had a low economic cost in terms of impact on prices less than 1 in all the countries so the concerns about competitiveness do not find empirical support in our results suggesting the need for further analyses to find out the reasons that caused the failure of a reform that was an important step to introduce a taxation explicitly linked to co 2 emissions the second simulation however leads to strongly different results pointing out the relevance of maintaining significant economic incentives to reduce carbon emissions for the european trade system sectors by improving the emission market performance or by applying carbon taxation also to these sectors

higher wages for sustainable development employment and carbon effects of paying a living wage in global apparel supply chains abstract in this paper we explore how paying a living wage in global supply chains might affect employment and carbon emissions sustainable development goals 8 and 13 previous work has advocated using wage increases for poorer workers to increase prices for wealthier consumers thereby reducing consumption and associated environmental damage however the likely effects of such an approach remain unclear using an input output framework extended with income and demand elasticities we estimate the employment and carbon effects of paying a living wage to brazilian russian indian and chinese bric workers in the western european clothing supply chain we find negligible effects on carbon emissions but a substantial increase in bric employment under 3 scenarios of consumer behaviour changes in western european consumption lead to small decreases in global carbon emissions and bric employment however the increase in bric wages increases demand in bric this increased demand increases production which largely cancels out the carbon savings and generates net increases in bric employment we conclude by arguing that paying higher wages in global supply chains represents a good but not sufficient step toward achieving the sustainable development goals

the politics of regulation in the turkish electricity market abstract turkey began reforming the electricity market in 2001 the regulatory reform aimed to liberalize the market however the institutional and political structure was not ready for creating an efficiently working competition the independent regulator did not have both experience and will to direct the industry to a more competitive environment currently the reform has slowed down and political preferences drive the industry this paper studies the reasons for the slowdown in the reform efforts by focusing on the relationships between the government judiciary and the independent regulator we conclude that strategic behaviors of players in the market including the judiciary the government and the regulator have made the introduction of competition to the market more costly

explaining variation in the competitiveness of u s senate elections 1922 2004 we develop and test predictions about the factors determining the competitiveness of elections to the u s senate to do so we deliberately abstract away from candidate specific conditions that have often been used to study political competitiveness in order to focus on basic structural features of the electoral landscape in our framework party specific constraints on the ideological positioning of local candidates linked to the national party organization and its contributors interact with the heterogeneity of state electorates to determine the number of highly competitive senate contests three hypotheses emerge from this model 1 the greater the diversity of a party s national legislative delegation the more highly competitive senate elections we will observe 2 states in which the ideological heterogeneity of the electorate is relatively high will exhibit a greater number of highly competitive elections and 3 highly competitive senate contests will be more common in states with closed primaries than in states with open primaries we provide strong evidence in support of the first two hypotheses and some evidence in support of the third

comprehensive evaluation of household indirect energy consumption and impacts of alternative energy policies in china by input output analysis abstract households consume a large amount of indirect energy through the consumption of goods and services this fact makes the quantitative analysis of indirect household energy consumption the foundation of energy policy design this paper improves the compilation method of energy input output tables and establishes a sequence of energy input output tables for china based on these tables the indirect energy consumption of both rural and urban households is calculated then with economic data for the year of 2005 the adjusted input output price model is applied to evaluate how the alternative energy policies impact production prices consumption prices and real income of rural and urban households through the mechanism of indirect energy consumption by using electricity as an example this research has practical implications for chinese economy the integration of energy efficiency improvements and energy prices increase serves as a means to achieve both economic and energy conservation goals and may also have a positive effect on residents real income and a minimal effect on production prices

structural path analysis and multiplier decomposition within a social accounting matrix framework the main purpose of this paper is to apply structural path analysis to a social accounting matrix sam framework because the sam is a comprehensive essentially general equilibrium data system the whole network through which influence is transmitted can be identified and specified through structural path analysis the latter provides an alternative and much more detailed way to decompose multipliers as compared with the traditional treatment of stone 1978 and pyatt and round 1979 this paper consists of five sections the first one reviews the sam framework as a basis for multiplier analysis and multiplier decomposition in particular the additive decomposition in terms of transfer open loop and closed loop effects is succinctly presented section ii applies this conventional decomposition to a sam of south korea to illustrate with eleven specific cases the effects of an exogenous injection on the endogenous accounts of the sam i e the incomes of the factors household groups and production activities section iii is devoted to the presentation of the elements of structural analysis and more particularly the transmission of economic influence within a structure finally section iv applies structural path analysis to the south korean sam and compares and contrasts the multiplier decomposition which it yields with the alternative decomposition discussed in section ii the comparison is the more significant in that the two decomposition methods are applied to the same eleven selected cases spanning a variety of sectors i e poles of origin for the injection and sectors poles of destination the empirical analysis in section iv suggests that structural path analysis applied to a sam is a potentially operationally useful technique within which a whole series of policy issues can be addressed the final section is devoted to a brief summary and conclusions

the economy wide impact of controlling energy consumption in indonesia an analysis using a social accounting matrix framework escalating oil prices and the need to control carbon emissions sound the alarm for indonesia to reduce or be more efficient in its energy use instead of eliminating the fuel oil subsidy to promote better and more efficient use of energy the indonesian government seems to be more in favour of restricting energy use by for example requiring all hotels restaurants night clubs and other business activities to close down by 1 am societies need to understand the full consequences of adopting restricting energy use and more efficient energy use strategies toward their incomes this paper aims to analyse the impact on the economy of energy policies aiming to reduce and to improve the efficiency of energy use particularly on the income of various household groups this paper will first construct a social accounting matrix for indonesia with detailed energy sectors and second utilise various multiplier analyses to observe and understand the impact of these energy policies

federal deductibility and local property tax rates abstract recent econometric work has suggested that federal deductibility of state and local taxes has raised the proportion of these taxes especially property taxes in local budgets this paper lends additional support to these earlier findings by showing that one channel through which deductibility leads to higher local property tax revenues is by increasing the rate of local property taxation specifically we find that if deductibility were eliminated the mean property tax rate in our sample would fall by 0 00715 7 15 per 1000 of assessed property or 21 1 of the mean tax rate

political manipulations and market reforms failures economists have recently underscored that the failure of market reforms in producing sustained growth in emerging markets is the result of poor advice from the international monetary fund as well as of erroneous macroeconomic policies of domestic decision makers this article proposes a complementary hypothesis if market reforms are enacted in a political system with weak accountability institutions then one should expect the executive to manipulate such reforms in pursuit of such old fashioned practices as collusion between government and business political patronage and corruption this in turn ends up depriving a given economy of potential advantages that could have accrued had the reforms promoted true competition rather than reallocating monopolistic rents and squandering a large amount of resources

the impact of oil price shocks evidence from the industries of six oecd countries most of the studies about the macroeconomic consequences of oil price shocks have been focused on us aggregate data in contrast to these studies this paper empirically assesses the dynamic effect of oil price shocks on the output of the main manufacturing industries in six oecd countries the pattern of responses to an oil price shock by industrial output is diverse across the four european monetary union emu countries under consideration france germany italy and spain but broadly similar in the uk and the us moreover evidence on cross industry heterogeneity of oil shock effects within the emu countries is also reported

total embodied energy requirements and its decomposition in china s agricultural sector abstract humanity faces the important challenge of understanding and integrating human and natural processes including agriculture in china the scarcity of arable land 0 09 ha per capita increasing population and migration of the workforce to cities pose a significant challenge for food security agricultural energy productivity has therefore become a key concern in this study we used input output analysis to measure energy productivity at a national agro ecosystem scale for china using the total embodied energy requirement teer to reveal hidden energy flows we introduced a structural decomposition technique that reveals how changes in teer for the agricultural sector were driven by changes in energy use technology and the inter relationships among two agricultural sectors farming and animal husbandry the results will help both policymakers and farmers to improve the efficiency and environmental compatibility of agricultural production declining teer for both sectors means that china s overall agro ecosystem has increased its energy productivity since 1978 due to improved relationships between the agricultural sectors and increased use of biological energy however the net positive energy income decreased in the farming sector and an increasing proportion of fossil energy use accompanied by increased energy income in the animal sector provide incentives to increase yield and decrease labor by using more fossil energy thus raising more animals in the animal husbandry sector overuse of fossil energy since 1990 has resulted in decreasing fossil energy efficiency requiring immediate measures to improve the use of fossil fuel intensive materials such as fertilizers

pigou tiebout property taxation and the underprovision of local public goods abstract pigou s proposition that the use of distorting taxes rather than neutral head taxes reduces public service levels is examined in this paper a simple model with a national system of competing local governments is utilized to demonstrate that the use of a distorting property tax on mobile capital decreases the level of residential public services the case where public services are an intermediate producer good is also considered

the impact of natural gas price control in china a computable general equilibrium approach abstract this paper depicts the natural gas price control behavior of the chinese government in an imperfect competition market structure using a static cge model it simulates the effect of changes in natural gas price control policy on carbon emission and the economic effects in view of demand side and supply side based on the above we also analyze the carbon emission mechanism from economic and energy structure perspective the results show that an increase in natural gas price can reduce carbon emission or tends to cause a long term decline in the surplus profit rate of the natural gas industry moreover the increase in natural gas price may raise the cpi and reduce actual gdp and residents welfare on the contrary a decrease in natural gas price may reduce cpi and enhance resident welfare however the long term actual gdp will not increase but carbon emission will increase and the surplus profit rate of the natural gas industry may reduce in the short term and increase in the long term on the other hand both increase and decrease in natural gas prices may result in a decrease of the actual gdp level in the long term the elimination of price control in natural gas supply may increase actual gdp and residents welfare and reduce cpi meanwhile it may increase carbon emissions and improve the profitability of the natural gas industry

legal constraints and the choice of educational grant structures recent empirical work suggests that legalconstraints are significant in choosingstate educational grant structures unfortunately the literature has not takensuch constraints into account thus callinginto question particular grant structurerecommendations this paper studies theconditions under which a legislature underorder to reform its educational grantstructure prefers foundation grants overdistrict power equalization grants atheoretical model is presented in which thechoice is shown to depend on the legalbasis of the court s decision and theempirical validity of this conclusion isdemonstrated using connecticut data and aseparate model of school districtexpenditure choice

correlation between chinese and international energy prices based on a hp filter and time difference analysis abstract to establish a reasonable system and mechanism for chinese energy prices we use the granger causality test hodrick prescott hp filter and time difference analysis to research the pricing relationship between chinese and international energy prices we find that chinese and international crude oil prices changed synchronously while chinese refined oil prices follow the changes of international oil prices with the time difference being about 1 month to 2 months further australian coal prices granger causes chinese coal prices and there is a high correlation between them the u s electricity price is influenced by the wti crude oil price the u s gasoline price and the henryhub gas price due to the unreasonable price setting mechanism and regulation from the central government china s terminal market prices for both electricity and natural gas do not reflect the real supply demand situation this paper provides quantitative results on the correlation between chinese and international energy prices to better predict the impact of international energy price fluctuations on china s domestic energy supply and guide the design of more efficient energy pricing policies moreover it provides references for developing countries to improve their energy market systems and trading and to coordinate domestic and international energy markets

disentangling patterns of state debt financing we examine the determinants of change in state government indebtedness from 1961 through 1989 using a pooled time series cross sectional analysis the analysis reveals that debt is primarily a function of economic conditions reflecting both the need to borrow and the capacity of states to repay debt however political factors such as culture partisan competition and electoral cycles also affect state debt we also find very weak evidence that tax and expenditure limitations ironically may increase state indebtedness while constitutional debt limitations have no effect upon slowing the growth of state debt

studying the role of political competition in the evolution of government size over long horizons here we argue for the use of cointegration and error correction analysis to combine economic factors that are nonstationary with political factors that are stationary into an empirical model of the evolution of public policy over long periods the approach is applied to disentangle the contributions of economics and politics to the evolution of public expenditure by the government of canada over 130 years political competition emerges as the primary political factor affecting government size

an integrated economic and distributional analysis of energy policies most public policies particularly those in the energy sphere have not only efficiency but also distributional effects however there is a trade off between modelling approaches suitable for calculating those impacts on the economy for the former most of the studies have been conducted with general equilibrium models whereas partial equilibrium models represent the main approach for distributional analysis this paper proposes a methodology to simultaneously carry out an analysis of the distributional and efficiency consequences of changes in energy taxation in order to do so we have integrated a microeconomic household demand model and a computable general equilibrium model for the spanish economy we illustrate the advantages of this approach by simulating a revenue neutral reform in spanish indirect taxation with a large increase of energy taxes that serve an environmental purpose the results show that the reforms bring about significant efficiency and distributional effects in some cases counterintuitive and demonstrate the academic and social utility of this approximation

competitiveness partisanship and subnational protest in argentina research has shown that countries with weak institutions are more likely to experience higher levels of protest as a means to achieve political objectives or express policy demands a growing body of literature portrays argentina as a case of widespread institutional weakness and the country currently sustains the highest rates of protest participation in latin america however existing literature has yet to explain why apparently similar subnational units within the same national democratic regime experience different levels of protest by moving down to a subnational level of analysis this article ex plores the political factors that shape protest activity across the country s 23 provinces and the city of buenos aires for the period 1993 2005 it demon strates that the electoral incentives created by shifting patterns of political competition and the nature of partisan opposition influence the spatial and temporal unevenness of subnational protest activity

implementation of industrial waste heat to power in southeast asia an outlook from the perspective of market potentials opportunities and success catalysts as an important way to increase industrial energy efficiency waste heat to power whp technologies have been gaining popularity in recent years in order to appraise the market potential of whp technologies in southeast asia a techno economic assessment for whp technologies is conducted in this paper the technical and economic market potential of whp in southeast asia is estimated to be 1788 mw and 1188 mw respectively the main market drivers and barriers for whp market expansion in southeast asia are also analyzed given the fact that whp is a far cheaper power generation technology as compared with traditional and renewable power generation the whp market is expected to increase fast in the coming years mounting electricity price from grid government emissions regulations and subsidies the integration of whp products with original equipment manufacturer capital cost reduction induced by technology development are identified as the key drivers for the market growth the above arguments are proofed through the analysis of a power plant whp project in southeast asia

the subnational politics of economic adjustment provincial politics and fiscal performance in argentina existing research has failed to address the impact of subnational politics on economic adjustment this article attempts to fill this gap by outlining theoretical reasons for anticipating policy divergences across levels of government and by offering three hypotheses to account for variation at the subnational level the authors explore these ideas on the basis of the argentine experience the study traces the impact of subnational policy on argentine economic adjustment and tests hypotheses about subnational policy variation on the basis of provincial fiscal data the authors findings underline the importance of subnational policy choice for national performance and suggest a revised understanding of the role of political competition in the economic adjustment process the authors find considerable evidence that interactions between party competition and the structure of the public sector shape provincial fiscal performance and thereby condition the capacity for economic adjustment at the national level

ecological pricing and economic efficiency abstract there is a need to accurately account for the contributions of environmental assets to the overall economy such accounting would permit policies that allow protection of important natural resources and aid the analytic process to determine an accurate basis for a sustainable economy the aim is to develop an accounting framework for ecology that is sufficiently consistent with the economic framework that the two can be fruitfully combined with appropriate definitions of the flows the two systems can be connected into a common framework no single measure of the system productivity and efficiency can be given for the combined system however until the ecosystem metabolism can be converted into economic terms this could be done with a series of economic valuation techniques ecological prices could then be estimated and a single measure of ecological economic output could be given with the net combined system input and output now in common terms a technical system efficiency measure can logically be proposed because human activity inevitably involves dissipation such emissions would now have a monetary price because such emissions are irrecoverable the total output of the combined system is greater than it is under the current definition giving rise to a technical system wide efficiency measure

kuwait s energy subsidy reduction examining economic and co2 emission effects with or without compensation abstract this paper examined economy wide impacts of reducing energy subsidy in kuwait a social accounting matrix sam was constructed and a computable general equilibrium cge model was developed the cge model was used to simulate separate and combined effects of a 25 reduction of subsidy to three energy products natural gas oil and electricity this policy shock was applied to the model in two scenarios in each round the subsidy reductions were applied to each energy product separately in turn and then finally simultaneously to all energy products in the first scenario subsidy reductions were applied and results were compared with the baseline scenario given in the sam this yielded adverse effects across a range of endogenous variables it leads to large energy price increases as high as 255 for electricity gross domestic product gdp marginally declined by 0 28 in scenario 2 the subsidy reduction was accompanied with cash transfers to energy users a compensation for welfare loss the amount of transfer was equivalent to the sum of the amount of subsidy reductions the results indicated that such transfers would reduce the adverse effects of the policy reform the effects on gdp was reversed it rose by 1 01 the price effect was slightly lower electricity price rose by 245 finally sensitivity of the model results was examined by varying the elasticity of the substitution of composite energy and capital in production greater possibility of substitution seems to cause subsidy reform to have much larger positive or smaller adverse economy wide effects the simulation experiments suggest that subsidy reform would need to be accompanied by demand side stimulus or supply side initiatives to encourage energy conservation

oil prices and the south african economy a macro meso micro analysis abstract three levels of analysis are used to track the channels by which south africa and its people are impacted by an increase of oil prices namely the macro economic level the meso economic level and the micro economic household level the paper uses an economy and energy integrated approach to quantify these different channels the approach combines a household survey dataset and an input output dataset to implement the models results indicate that the impacts on the macroeconomy are negative with gross domestic product falling and the current account balance worsening all of the industries falling into the high intensive oil use group witness an increase of their input cost that is above the economy wide average the impact of doubling paraffin prices results in poor households in rural areas and among the black population in particular witnessing an increase of their cost of living which is much higher than their corresponding highest expenditure quintile groups an increase of transport fuel hits the richer households much harder the distributional impacts of rising transport cost as a consequence of high oil and oil products prices shows that median quintile expenditure groups observe the highest impact both in urban and rural areas and especially among the black population

who delivers partisan clients in the argentine electoral market why do some parties fail to benefit from patronage in pork ridden political systems this article analyzes the interaction between patronage and partisanship to explain why some incumbents are more likely to benefit from pork politics than others we explain such differences by focusing on political parties access to resources supply side and voters dependence on fiscal largesse demand side we show how these differences affect the patron s choice of public sector wages and employment we use subnational level data to show different electoral returns from patronage for the two major political coalitions in argentina peronism and the ucr alianza and their effect on preferences over public sector wages and employment w hy do some political parties fail to benefit from patronage in pork ridden political systems this article analyzes the interaction between patronage and partisanship to explain why some incumbents are more likely to benefit from pork politics than others we explain returns to patronage by highlighting differences in the political parties access to resources supply side and the voter s dependence on public sector jobs demand side we propose that just as political parties cater their policies to particular groups of voters they pursue different strategies when allocating pork in exchange for support on the supply side we highlight the importance of partisan biases in the fiscal and electoral institutions that regulate the access and distribution of public resources on the demand side we show that patronage is a distributive mechanism that provides different returns to voters with different skills and labor market expectations

natural gas price effects in china based on the cge model abstract natural gas is a clean energy source with many benefits and its proportion in the energy consumption structure in china has been gradually increasing over the recent years since the price of natural gas in china has been controlled and maintained at a relatively low level by the government reforming the natural gas industry in china has been the matter of much attention in light of its macroeconomic effects on the overall economy using the computable general equilibrium model and the 2012 social accounting matrix the results show increases in natural gas prices lead to an increase in the consumer price index cpi and lead to reductions in gdp the chemical industry sector is strongly influenced by a natural gas price increase furthermore chemical fertilizer manufacturing industry and chemical products manufacturing have very significant effects in china therefore the government may gradually establish and improve the management of natural gas price to avoid negative effects and implement a differential price as the industries exhibit different levels of resistance in response to natural gas price changes