occupational choice and the process of development this paper models economic development as a process of institutional transformation by focusing on the interplay between agents occupational decisions and the distribution of wealth because of capital market imperfections poor agents choose working for a wage over self employment and wealthy agents become entrepreneurs who monitor workers only with sufficient inequality however will there be employment contracts otherwise there is either subsistence or self employment thus in static equilibrium the occupational structure depends on distribution since the latter is itself endogenous we demonstrate the robustness of this result by extending the model dynamically and studying examples in which initial wealth distributions have long run effects in one case the economy develops either widespread cottage industry self employment or factory production employment contracts depending on the initial distribution in the other example it develops into prosperity or stagnation

the microfinance promise in the past decade microfinance programs have demonstrated that it is possible to lend to low income households while maintaining high repayment rates even without requiring collateral the programs promise a revolution in approaches to alleviating poverty and spreading financial services and millions of poor households are served globally a growing body of economic theory demonstrates how new contractual forms offer a key to microfinance success particularly the use of group lending contracts with joint liability for the most part however high repayment rates have not translated into profits and studies of impacts on poverty yield a mixed picture in describing emerging tensions the paper highlights the diversity of innovative mechanisms beyond group lending contracts the measurement of financial sustainability the estimation of economic and social impacts the costs and benefits of subsidization and the potential to reduce poverty through savings programs rather than just credit the promise of microfinance has pushed far ahead of the evidence and an agenda is put forward for addressing critical empirical gaps and sharpening the terms of policy discussion

liquidity effects and the monetary transmission mechanism several recent papers provide strong empirical support for the view that an expansionary monetary policy disturbance generates a persistent decrease in interest rates and a persistent increase in output and employment existing quantitative general equilibrium models which allow for capital accumulation are inconsistent with this view there does exist a recently developed class of general equilibrium models which can rationalize the contemporaneous response of interest rates output and employment to a money supply shock however a key shortcoming of these models is that they cannot rationalize persistent liquidity effects this paper discusses the basic frictions and mechanisms underlying this new class of models and investigates one avenue for generating persistence we argue that once a simplified version of the model in christiano and eichenbaum 1991 is modified to allow for extremely small costs of adjusting sectoral flow of funds positive money shocks generate long lasting quantitatively significant liquidity effects as well as persistent increases in aggregate economic activity

understanding the family gap in pay for women with children as the gender gap in pay between women and men has been narrowing the family gap in pay between mothers and nonmothers has been widening one reason may be the institutional structure in the united states which has emphasized equal pay and opportunity policies but not family policies in contrast to other countries that have implemented both the authors now have evidence on the links between one such family policy and women s pay recent research suggests that maternity leave coverage by raising women s retention after childbirth also raises women s levels of work experience job tenure and pay

the impact of children on wages job tenure and the division of household labour in the absence of typical exclusion restrictions covariance restrictions are used to obtain estimates of the effects of children on household behaviour using data from the psid on two age samples children are found to have a significant impact on many household decisions however while in the young sample exogenous fertility cannot be rejected in the older sample this is not the case finally if the average household had one less child the male female wage differential would decrease by 9 5 there has been enormous interest in learning the impact of children on various household behaviours especially those of the mother in particular there has been much empirical research on the effect of fertility on female allocation and value of time angrist and evans 1998 gronau 1988 1977 1976 mroz 1987 rosenzweig and wolpin 1980 fleischer and rhodes 1979 cain and dooley 1976 heckman 1974 gronau 1973 etc in either case the inability to find appropriate instruments for fertility is troublesome fleischer and rhodes 1979 conclude that their inability to represent the fertility variable with a suitable instrument is disappointing and willis 1987 wrote i t has proven difficult to find enough well measured exogenous variables to permit cause and effect relationships to be extracted from correlations among factors such as the delay of marriage decline of childbearing growth of divorce and increased female labour force participation of related interest is the effect of fertility on market wages waldfogel 1998 hersch and stratton 1997 korenman and neumark 1992 hersch 1991 moore and wilson 1982 hill 1979 cain and dooley 1976 and male behaviour browning 1992 pencavel 1986 controlling for the endogeneity of fertility is likely to be vital in any model of household time allocation browning 1992 stated finally labor supply and fertility may be jointly determined either by basic economic principles or because in the population preferences for having children and for working at ajob are negatively correlated despite the theoretical claims the empirical question of whether or not fertility is endogenous has yet to be answered

household specialization and the male marriage wage premium empirical research has consistently shown that married men have substantially higher wages on average than otherwise similar unmarried men one commonly cited hypothesis to explain this pattern is that marriage allows one spouse to specialize in market production and the other to specialize in home production enabling the former usually the husband to acquire more market specific human capital and ultimately earn higher wages the authors test this hypothesis using panel data from the national survey of families and households the data reveal that married men spent virtually the same amount of time on home production as did single men albeit on different types of housework estimates from a fixed effects wage equation indicate that the male marriage wage premium is not substantially affected by controls for home production activities household specialization the authors conclude does not appear to have been responsible for the marriage premium in this sample

housework fixed effects and wages of married workers although the primacy of household responsibilities in determining gender differences in labor market outcomes is universally recognized there has been little investigation of the direct effect of housework on wages using data from the panel study of income dynamics cross sectional wage regressions reveal a substantial negative relation between wages and housework for wives which persists in specifications controlling for individual fixed effects the evidence for husbands is inconclusive married women s housework time is on average three times that of married men s the addition of housework time to the wage equations increases the explained component of the gender wage gap from 27 30 percent to 38 percent

microenterprise growth and the flypaper effect evidence from a randomized experiment in ghana standard models of investment predict that credit constrained firms should grow rapidly when given additional capital and that how this capital is provided should not affect decisions to invest in the business or consume the capital we randomly gave cash and in kind grants to male and female owned microenterprises in urban ghana for women running subsistence enterprises we find no gain in profits from either treatment for women with larger businesses we strongly reject equality of the cash and in kind grants only in kind grants cause growth in profits suggesting a flypaper effect whereby capital coming directly into the business sticks there but cash does not the results for men also suggest a lower impact of cash but differences between cash and in kind grants are less robust there is suggestive evidence that the difference in the effects of cash and in kind grants is associated more with lack of self control than with external pressure

crime and microenterprise growth evidence from mexico summary we explore the relationship between property crime and growth among microenterprises in mexico we use data on microenterprises and crime incidence from victimization surveys we find that higher rates of property crime are associated with a significantly lower probability an enterprise plans to expand or experiences income growth in the subsequent 12 months these effects are unique to property crimes and are not due to preventative measures undertaken by more rapidly expanding firms or other sources of reverse causality these conclusions also are robust to a number of controls for firm heterogeneity and for local institutional quality

releasing constraints to growth or pushing on a string policies and performance of mexican micro firms abstract using firm level data from mexico this paper investigates the firm characteristics associated with participation in credit markets access to training tax payments and membership in business associations we find that firms which participate in these institutions exhibit significantly higher profits moreover firms that borrow from formal or informal sources and those that pay taxes are significantly more likely to stay in business but firms that received credit exhibit lower rates of income growth these results persist when firm characteristics that are arguably correlated with unobserved entrepreneurial ability are controlled for our findings suggest that the significant within country differences in firm productivity observed in developing economies are due in part to market and government failures that limit the ability of micro firms to reach their optimal sizes

moving to opportunity in boston early results of a randomized mobility experiment this paper examines the short run impacts of a change in residential neighborhood on the well being of low income families using evidence from a program in which eligibility for a housing voucher was determined by random lottery we examine the experiences of households at the boston site of moving to opportunity mto a demonstration program in five cities families in high poverty public housing projects applied to mto and were assigned by lottery to one of three groups experimental offered mobility counseling and a section 8 subsidy valid only in a census tract with a poverty rate of less than 10 percent section 8 comparison offered a geographically unrestricted section 8 subsidy or control offered no new assistance but continued to be eligible for public housing our quantitative analyses of program impacts uses data on 540 families from a baseline survey at program enrollment a follow up survey administered l to 3 5 years after random assignment and state administrative data on earnings and welfare receipt 48 percent of the experimental group and 62 percent of the section 8 comparison group moved through the mto program one to three years after program entry families in both treatment groups were more likely to be residing in neighborhoods with low poverty rates and high education levels than were families in the control group however while members of the experimental group were much more likely to be residing in suburban communities than were those in the section 8 group the lower program take up rate among the experimental group resulted in more families remaining in the most distressed communities households in both treatment groups experienced improvements in multiple measures of well being relative to the control group including increased safety improved health among household heads and fewer behavior problems among boys experimental group children were also less likely to be a victim of a personal crime to be injured or to experience an asthma attack there are no significant impacts of either mto treatment on the employment earnings or welfare receipt of household heads in the first three years after random assignment

the returns to mobility and job search by gender using data from the national longitudinal survey of youth the authors estimate the returns to job search mobility and the interaction of search and mobility for young men and women they find st

employment tax credit programs the effects of socioeconomic targeting provisions argentina s proempleo experiment conducted in 1998 2000 was designed to assess whether a wage subsidy and specialized training could assist the transition from workfare to regular work randomly sampled workfare participants in a welfare dependent

income distribution and macroeconomics this paper analyzes the role of wealth distribution in macroeconomics through investment in human capital it is shown that in the presence of credit markets imperfections and indivisibilities in investment in human capital the initial distribution of wealth affects aggregate output and investment both in the short and in the long run as there are multiple steady states this paper therefore provides an additional explanation for the persistent differences in per capita output across countries furthermore the paper shows that cross country differences in macroeconomic adjustment to aggregate shocks can be attributed among other factors to differences in wealth and income distribution across countries

in and out of the labour market long term income consequences of child related interruptions to women s paid work why do canadian mothers have lower incomes than women who have never had children microdata from the 1995 gss allow examination of two hypotheses 1 mothers have spent more time out of the labour force thus acquiring less human capital 2 higher levels of unpaid work lead to fatigue and or scheduling difficulties measuring work history does little to account for the family gap the estimated child penalty is reduced by allowing for human capital depreciation and controlling for unpaid work hours but the two hypotheses together cannot entirely explain the gap jel classification j0 j3 entrees et sorties marche du travail et consequences a long terme des interruptions dans l experience sur le marche du travail a cause des enfants ce memoire se demande pourquoi les femmes canadiennes qui ont eu des enfants ont des revenus plus bas que ceux des femmes qui n en ont pas eus les microdonnees de l enquete sociale generale de 1995 de statistiques canada permettent d examiner deux hypotheses 1 les meres ont passe plus de temps en dehors de la main d oeuvre active et donc ont accumule moins de capital humain ou 2 des niveaux plus eleves de travail non remunere peuvent entrainer fatigue ou difficultes d organisation du temps des efforts pour construire une meilleure image de l experience de travail des femmes ne permettent pas d expliquer cet ecart familial meme si la possibilite qu il y ait depreciation du capital humain reduit la penalisation attachee au fait d avoir un enfant en particulier si l interruption dans l experience sur le marche du travail est suivie d un changement d emploi le nombre hebdomadaire d heures de travail non paye est relie negativement aux revenus et si l on normalise pour tenir compte des heures de travail non paye cela reduit la penalisation attachee au fait d avoir un enfant cependant les deux hypotheses combinees ne suffisent pas pour expliquer l ecart

performance related pay and gender wage differences we study the impact of performance related pay prp on gender wage differences using finnish linked employer employee panel data controlling for unobserved person and firm effects we find that bonuses increase women s earnings slightly less than men s but the economic significance of the difference is negligible piece rates and reward rates however tend to increase gender wage differentials thus the nature of a prp plan is important for gauging the impact of prp on gender wage differentials a comparison with ols results shows the importance of controlling for an unobserved person and firm effects

reconciling conflicting evidence on the performance of propensity score matching methods there is a long standing debate in the literature over whether social programs can be reliably evaluated without a randomized experiment this paper summarizes results from a larger paper smith and todd 2001 that uses experimental data combined with nonexperimental data to evaluate the performance of alternative nonexperimental estimators the impact estimates based on experimental data provide a benchmark against which to judge the performance of nonexperimental estimators our experimental data come from the national supported work nsw demonstration and the nonexperimental data from the current population survey cps and the panel study of income dynamics psid these same data were used in influential papers by robert lalonde 1986 james heckman and joseph hotz 1989 and rajeev dehejia and sadek wahba 1998 1999 we focus on a class of estimators called propensity score matching estimators which were introduced in the statistics literature by paul rosenbaum and donald rubin 1983 traditional propensity score matching methods pair each program participant with a single nonparticipant where pairs are chosen based on the degree of similarity in the estimated probabilities of participating in the program the propensity scores more recently developed nonparametric matching estimators described in heckman et al 1997 1998a b use weighted averages over multiple observations to construct matches we apply both kinds of estimators in this paper heckman et al 1997 1998a b evaluate the performance of matching estimators using experimental data from the u s national job training partnership act jtpa study combined with comparison group samples drawn from three sources they show that data quality is a crucial ingredient to any reliable estimation strategy specifically the estimators they examine are only found to perform well in replicating the results of the experiment when they are applied to comparison group data satisfying the following criteria i the same data sources i e the same surveys or the same type of administrative data or both are used for participants and nonparticipants so that earnings and other characteristics are measured in an analogous way ii participants and nonparticipants reside in the same local labor markets and iii the data contain a rich set of variables relevant to modeling the program participation decision if the comparison group data fails to satisfy these criteria the performance of the estimators diminishes greatly more recently dehejia and wahba 1998 1999 have used the nsw data also used by lalonde to evaluate the performance of propensity score matching methods including pairwise matching and caliper matching they find that these simple matching estimators succeed in closely replicating the experimental nsw results even though the comparison group data do not satisfy any of the criteria found to be important in heckman et al 1997 1998a from this evidence they conclude that matching approaches are generally more reliable than traditional econometric estimators in this paper we reanalyze the nsw data in an attempt to reconcile the conflicting findings smith department of economics university of western ontario social science centre london on n6a 5c2 canada and nber todd department of economics university of pennsylvania 3718 locust walk philadelphia pa 19104 and nber versions of the paper that is the source for this paper have been presented at a 2000 meeting of the institute for research on poverty in madison wisconsin at the western research network on employment and training summer workshop august 2000 at the canadian international labour network meetings september 2000 and at the university of north carolina we thank james heckman for comments on this paper and we thank robert lalonde for comments and for providing us with the data from his 1986 study we thank rajeev dehejia for providing us with information helpful in reconstructing the samples used in the dehejia and wahba 1998 1999 studies jingjing hsee and miana plesca provided excellent research assistance

the return to capital in ghana we show that the real return to capital in ghana s informal sector is high for farmers we find annual returns ranging from 205 350 in the new technology of pineapple cultivation and 30 50 in well established food crop cultivation we also examine the relative prices of durable goods of varying durability and estimate a lower bound to the opportunity cost of capital of 60 this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

a sociological perspective on gender and career outcomes both economists and sociologists have documented the association between gender and career outcomes men are more likely than women to participate in the labor force and men average more hours of paid labor per week and more weeks per year women and men tend to hold different occupations and to work in different industries firms and jobs furthermore men outearn women hold more complex jobs and are more likely to supervise workers of the other sex and to dominate the top positions in their organization the challenge for both disciplines lies not in showing that gender is linked to employment outcomes but in explaining the associations economists have sought explanations in the characteristics and preferences of individual workers or employers some have attributed the associations between workers sex and their career outcomes to sex differences in training and experience career commitment or competing demands on time and energy others focus on employers preferences for workers of one sex over the other taste discrimination or on employers beliefs that workers of one sex or the other are more costly or less profitable to employ statistical discrimination the sociological approach differs from that of economists in recognizing sex segregation as a causal mechanism that gives rise to other differences between women s and men s careers this emphasis on segregation reflects sociologists interest in the ramifications of societal level systems of differentiation and stratification it stems also from the discipline s concern with the impact of people s location in social structures on a variety of life outcomes by concentrating men and women in different jobs segregation exposes them to more or less similar employment

microfinance spillovers a model of competition in informal credit markets with an application to indian villages despite widespread interest in the development of microfinance spillover effects on the non using population and redistributive issues remain largely unexplored i study a competition game between microfinance institutions mfis offering joint liability loans and moneylenders offering individual loans in presence of adverse selection i show that one unintended consequence of the entry of a microfinance sector in local credit markets can be to trigger an increase in the equilibrium informal interest rate because mfis tend to attract a disproportionately safe share of the borrower pool away from incumbent moneylenders the existence of such composition externality depends crucially on the size of the microfinance sector and the risk composition of the borrower pool the model predicts a non linearly increasing relationship between informal interest rates and mfis capacity in relatively safe credit markets and no relationship in risky villages i show evidence supporting these predictions using a first hand panel database that records all credit transactions over 8 years for a sample of about 1000 households living in indian villages with extensive space and time variation in the size of their microfinance sector

a reconsideration of the fatherhood premium marriage coresidence biology and fathers wages past research that asserts a fatherhood wage premium often ignores the heterogeneity of fathering contexts i expect fatherhood to produce wage gains for men if it prompts them to alter their behavior in ways that increase labor market productivity identity theory predicts a larger productivity based fatherhood premium when ties of biology coresidence with the child and marriage to the child s mother reinforce one another making fatherhood and the role of financial provider in particular salient high in commitment and clear employer discrimination against fathers in less normative family structures may also contribute to variation in the fatherhood premium using fixed effects models and data from the 1979 cohort of the national longitudinal survey of youth nlsy79 i find that married residential biological fatherhood is associated with wage gains of about 4 percent but unmarried residential fathers nonresidential fathers and stepfathers do not receive a fatherhood premium married residen

effectiveness of active labor market tools in conditional cash transfers programs evidence for argentina summary this paper examines the impact of the program seguro de capacitacion y empleo sce implemented to provide support in skills upgrading job seeking and job placement to eligible beneficiaries of the argentinian conditional cash transfer program plan jefes the sce is an example of a growing trend observed in latin america where labor activation components have been increasingly included into cash transfers programs to support beneficiaries in finding more stable income opportunities despite this growing trend not enough is known regarding the effectiveness of these components especially on job quality in this context this paper sheds light on whether the provision of a comprehensive package of active labor market measures contributes to a successful labor market integration of cash transfers beneficiaries taking advantage of the panel structure of the permanent household survey and exploiting the time variation in the assignment of the program as identification strategy we apply difference in difference estimators to measure the impact on a number of labor market indicators we find that the program affects positively the job quality of participants by increasing the probability of having a formal job and raising hourly wages moreover the intervention is associated with a lower probability of having a low paid job and working an excessive number of hours these effects are however not homogeneous across all groups of participants while the program is more successful among the younger beneficiaries it does not contribute to an improvement in the labor market conditions of female beneficiaries who in fact are the majority of sce participants our results suggest that reducing dependency on monetary transfers through programs such as the sce that are rich in activation components is beneficial for participants labor market trajectories and therefore it constitutes a satisfactory exit strategy to more universal cash transfer programs

evaluating the econometric evaluations of training programs with experimental data this paper takes the results of an employment and training program thatwas run as a field experiment in which the participants were randomlyassigned into a treatment or a control group and compares these results to the estimates that might have been produced by an econometrician who evaluated the program using the same econometric procedures that have been used in the program evaluation literature this comparison shows that many of these econometric procedures fail toreplicate the experimentally determined results and suggests that researchers should be aware of the potential for specification errorsin other nonexperimental evaluations copyright 1986 by american economic association

business practices in small firms in developing countries management has a large effect on the productivity of medium and large firms but does management matter in micro and small firms where the majority of the labor force in developing countries works we develop 26 questions that measure business practices in marketing stock keeping record keeping and financial planning these questions have been administered in surveys in bangladesh chile ghana kenya mexico nigeria and sri lanka we show that variation in business practices explains as much of the variation in outcomes sales profits and labor productivity and total factor productivity in microenterprises as in larger enterprises panel data from three countries indicate that better business practices predict higher survival rates and faster sales growth the association of business practices with firm outcomes is robust to including numerous measures of the owner s human capital we find that owners with higher human capital children of entrepreneurs and firms with employees employ better business practices data as supplemental material are available at http dx doi org 10 1287 mnsc 2016 2492 this paper was accepted by toby stuart entrepreneurship and innovation

optimal partial group liability in microfinance lending abstract this paper develops a model of group borrowing that incorporates partial group liability where borrowers are penalized if their group members default but are not held responsible for the entirety of the failed loan the model illustrates a trade off of group liability lending while higher levels of group liability increase within group risk sharing if liability is too high borrowers strategically default the model predicts the existence of an optimal partial liability that maximizes transfers between group members while avoiding strategic default consistent with this prediction loan officers from a large microfinance institution in southern mexico who rarely allow one group member to repay while the other defaults achieve substantially lower default rates than loan officers for whom the practice is commonplace or for those for whom it has never occurred structural estimation using repayment data suggests that while a partial liability below full liability may reduce default rates the incidence of strategic default is rare

what is the effect of housework on the market wage and can it explain the gender wage gap abstract does housework reduce the market wage and if so does it have a similar impact for males and females in this paper we survey and evaluate the recent and growing empirical literature on the linkages between housework and the wage rate the review is motivated by unexplained gender wage gaps across studies which consider personal and market related factors we focus on this less studied aspect of wage determination we consider the required modelling framework and provide standardized estimated effects of housework on the hourly wage across studies we evaluate how this literature has addressed potential estimation problems in particular the endogeneity of housework concavity of the housework wage function threshold effects and work effort effects we conclude that the evidence across ordinary least squares instrumental variable fixed effects and two stage least squares results casts serious doubt on the idea that the negative female housework wage relationship is only driven by endogeneity bias or individual specific characteristics yet much more needs to be done to address modelling and data requirements and we point out likely and promising future research directions

one business cycle and one trend from many many disaggregates abstract typical analyses of trends and cycles take as given some one observable economic variable in whose time path a researcher wishes to find trend and cyclical movements but individual sectors and regions in aggregate economies move neither perfectly with nor independently of each other why is their aggregate useful to study using a model for non stationary dynamically evolving distributions this paper provides evidence that in the us regional movements that preserve their aggregate time path nevertheless have important predictive comovements with aggregate gnp such predictive content cannot be understood in traditional macro models that seek the source for business cycles in aggregate productivity or monetary shocks

assisting the transition from workfare to work a randomized experiment randomly sampled workfare participants in a welfare dependent region of argentina were given a voucher that entitled an employer to a sizable wage subsidy a second sample also received the option of skill training while a third sample formed the control group the authors analyze the effects of this scheme on participants employment and income using double difference and instrumental variables methods to deal with potential experimental biases including selective compliance with the randomized assignment the authors find that compared with the control group voucher recipients had a significantly higher probability of employment though their current incomes were no higher the impact was largely confined to women and younger workers labor supply effects appear to have been important however training had no significant impact the experiment was cost effective in reducing the government s welfare spending since take up of the subsidy by employers was low

do wage subsidies provide a stepping stone to employment for recent college graduates evidence from a randomized experiment in jordan abstract this study examines the impact of a randomized experiment in jordan in which female community college graduates were assigned to receive a wage subsidy voucher the wage voucher led to a 38 percentage point increase in employment in the short run but the average effect is much smaller and no longer statistically significant after the voucher period has expired the extra job experience gained as a result of the wage subsidy does not provide a stepping stone to new jobs for these recent graduates which appears to be due to productivity levels not rising above a binding minimum wage

enterprise inequality and economic development we characterize an equilibrium development process driven by the interaction of the distribution of wealth with credit constraints and the distribution of entrepreneurial skills when efficient entrepreneurs are relatively abundant a traditional development process emerges in which the evolution of macroeconomic variables accord with empirical regularities and income inequality traces out a kuznets curve if instead efficient entrepreneurs are relatively scarce the model generates long run distributional cycles driven by the endogenous interaction between credit constraints entrepreneurial efficiency and equilibrium wages

beyond baseline and follow up the case for more t in experiments the vast majority of randomized experiments in economics rely on a single baseline and single follow up survey if multiple follow ups are conducted the reason is typically to examine the trajectory of impact effects so that in effect only one follow up round is being used to estimate each treatment effect of interest while such a design is suitable for study of highly autocorrelated and relatively precisely measured outcomes in the health and education domains this paper makes the case that it is unlikely to be optimal for measuring noisy and relatively less autocorrelated outcomes such as business profits household incomes and expenditures and episodic health outcomes taking multiple measurements of such outcomes at relatively short intervals allows the researcher to average out noise increasing power when the outcomes have low autocorrelation it can make sense to do no baseline at all moreover the author shows how for such outcomes more power can be achieved with multiple follow ups than allocating the same total sample size over a single follow up and baseline the analysis highlights the large gains in power from ancova rather than difference in differences when autocorrelations are low and a baseline is taken the paper discusses the issues involved in multiple measurements and makes recommendations for the design of experiments and related non experimental impact evaluations

microfinance and dynamic incentives dynamic incentives where incentives to repay are generated by granting access to future loans is one of the methodologies used by microfinance institutions mfis in this paper i present a model of dynamic incentives where lenders are uncertain over how much borrowers value future loans loan terms are determined endogenously and loans become more favorable as the probability of default becomes lower i show that in all equilibria but one all borrowers default including the most patient ones i then compare equilibria with and without double dipping i show that when credit constrained borrowers have access to multiple loans equilibrium loan terms have to become more favorable to overcome increased gains from default if borrower s access to multiple loans is unforseen by lenders then the default rates go up in the short run finally if lenders use group loans it generates endogenous hyperbolic discounting even though the borrowers are exponential discounters

maids appliances and couples housework the demand for inputs to domestic production maids household appliances and housework time are key inputs to domestic production this study uses data from the uk and france to estimate the effects of resource prices on the demand for these inputs we conclude that higher opportunity costs of time increase the likelihood of having maid services and appliances women s time costs are also positively related to his housework time and negatively related to hers finally maid service appears to be a closer substitute for housework time on weekend days than weekdays suggesting smaller labour supply effects than anticipated by earlier literature abstract from author

an analysis of the impact of sample attrition on the second generation of respondents in the michigan panel study of income dynamics only a few studies have tried to estimate the trend in the elasticity of children s economic status with respect to parents economic status and these studies produce conflicting results in an attempt to reconcile these findings we use the panel study

medium and long term participation in microcredit an evaluation using a new panel dataset from bangladesh the objective of this paper is to estimate the impacts of medium and long term participation in microcredit programs it utilises a new and large panel dataset collected from treatment and control households from 1997 to 2005 the data enables us to identify continuing participants in the program as well as newcomers and leavers we employ different estimation strategies including triple difference and propensity score matching methods to control for selection bias the impact estimates indicate that the benefits from microcredit vary more than proportionately with the duration of participation in a program larger benefits are realized from longer term participation and that the benefits continue to accrue beyond departure from the program the findings indicate the need to observe longer periods of participation to provide a reliable basis for assessing the effectiveness of microcredit lending

returns to capital in microenterprises evidence from a field experiment small and informal firms account for a large share of employment in developing countries the rapid expansion of microfinance services is based on the belief that these firms have productive investment opportunities and can enjoy high returns to capital if given the opportunity however measuring the return to capital is complicated by unobserved factors such as entrepreneurial ability and demand shocks which are likely to be correlated with capital stock the authors use a randomized experiment to overcome this problem and to measure the return to capital for the average microenterprise in their sample regardless of whether they apply for credit they accomplish this by providing cash and equipment grants to small firms in sri lanka and measuring the increase in profits arising from this exogenous positive shock to capital stock after controlling for possible spillover effects the authors find the average real return to capital to be 5 7 percent a month substantially higher than the market interest rate they then examine the heterogeneity of treatment effects to explore whether missing credit markets or missing insurance markets are the most likely cause of the high returns returns are found to vary with entrepreneurial ability and with measures of other sources of cash within the household but not to vary with risk aversion or uncertainty

does housework lower wages evidence for britain this paper uses the british household panel survey to present the first estimates of the housework wage relationship in britain controlling for permanent unobserved heterogeneity we find that housework has a negative impact on the wages of men and women both married and single who work full time among women working part time only single women suffer a housework penalty the housework penalty is uniform across occupations within full time jobs but some part time jobs appear to be more compatible with housework than others we find tentative evidence that the housework penalty is larger when there are children present

vocational training programs and youth labor market outcomes evidence from nepal abstract lack of skills is arguably one of the most important determinants of high levels of unemployment and poverty in response policymakers often initiate vocational training programs in effort to enhance skill formation among the youth using a regression discontinuity design we examine a large youth training intervention in nepal we find twelve months after the start of the training program that the intervention generated an increase in non farm employment of 10 percentage points itt estimates and up to 31 percentage points for program compliers late estimates we also detect sizeable gains in monthly earnings women who start self employment activities inside their homes largely drive these impacts we argue that low baseline educational levels and non farm employment levels and nepal s social and cultural norms towards women drive our large program impacts our results suggest that the program enables otherwise underemployed women to earn an income while staying at home close to household errands and in line with the socio cultural norms that prevent them from taking up employment outside the house

credit constraints job mobility and entrepreneurship evidence from a property reform in china this paper provides new evidence on the impact of private property rights on entrepreneurship i explore this issue in the context of a housing reform in urban china that allowed state employees renting state owned housing the opportunity to buy their homes at subsidized prices using the reform as an exogenous change in the capital constraints and mobility costs that inuence individuals entry

job creation through infrastructure investment in the middle east and north africa in the next 10 years or so the infrastructure sector has the potential to generate significant employment this paper estimates annual job creation of about 2 0 million in direct jobs and 2 5 million in direct indirect and induced infrastructure related jobs just by meeting the infrastructure investment needs of about 6 9 percent of gross domestic product about us 106 billion for the middle east and north africa region on average the breakdown in expected needs is 11 percent in developing oil exporters 6 percent in oil importing countries and 5 percent in the gulf cooperation council oil exporters needs are particularly high in electricity and roads while important infrastructure job creation will not resolve the region s unemployment problem alone and its job creation potential varies greatly across countries moreover the current ability to finance and hence meet the infrastructure needs varies significantly across countries oil importers are likely to fall short under business as usual scenarios in a region in which the public sector is the main source of infrastructure financing fiscal choices will thus matter to job creation through infrastructure but there are more challenges including the governance of job creation and the proper targeting and costing of subsidies for job creation and the re training programs needed managing expectations will also matter as infrastructure jobs will help but will not solve the region s unemployment and underemployment problems

estimating the benefit incidence of an antipoverty program by propensity score matching this brief summarizes the results of a gender impact evaluation study entitled estimating the benefit incidence of an antipoverty program by propensity score matching conducted between 1997 and 1998 in argentina the study observed that the average direct gain to the participant is found to be about half the gross wage over half of the beneficiaries are in the poorest decile nationally and 80 percent are in the poorest quintile the propensity score matching psm estimator is reasonably robust to a number of changes in methodology participants are more likely to be poor than non participants participants are less well educated live in poorer neighborhoods and are more likely to be members of neighborhood associations and political parties average gains are similar between men and women but are higher for younger workers funding for the study derives from the world bank research committee

active labour market programmes in latin america and the caribbean evidence from a meta analysis abstractwe present a systematic review and meta analysis of impact evaluations of active labour market programmes almps in latin america and the caribbean lac we extract 296 impact estimates f

male female wage differentials and policy responses without implicating them for any of the contents of the paper i am grateful to the following for helpful discussions or comments andrea beller university of illinois david bloom harvard and columnbia glen cain university of wisconsin ron ehrenberg cornell victor fuchs stanford bob gregory australian national university jonathan leonard university of california berkeley roberta robb brock university and paul weiler harvard financial support of the humanities and social sciences committee of the research board of the universitu of toronto is eratefullu acknowlede ed

wage subsidies for microenterprises wage subsidies have long been used by governments as part of their active labor market policies to generate employment for the disadvantaged or to sustain employment during downturns the current global financial crisis has seen such policies return to prominence with many developed nations using such policies to try and reduce lay offs nicholas kaldor 1936 p richard layard and stephen nickell 1980 and lawrence katz 1998 lay out the economic arguments for such a policy and discuss conditions under which a short term subsidy might have longer term effects on employment for the targeted individuals

marriage and wages a test of the specialization hypothesis we investigate the relationship between marriage and wages among men in britain using panel data our econometric specifications allow for observed and unobserved heterogeneity and explicitly test the role of intra household specialization in explaining the observed relationship our estimates provide evidence for the existence of large selection effects into marriage based on observable and unobservable characteristics that are positively correlated with wages after accounting for individual specific time invariant effects and a wide range of individual household job and employer related characteristics we find a statistically significant premium that can be attributed to productivity differences largely resulting from intra household specialization

are targeted wage subsidies harmful evidence from a wage voucher experiment this paper presents the results of a controlled experiment designed to test the effectiveness of a targeted wage subsidy program such programs are intended to increase the employment of target group workers by offering employers reimbursement for part of those workers wages in the dayton ohio experiment however job seekers given experimental vouchers identifying them to employers as eligible for a generous wage subsidy were significantly less likely to find employment than were job seekers without vouchers the author speculates that the vouchers had a stigmatizing effect and provided a screening device with which employers discriminated against economically disadvantaged workers

a theory of trickle down growth and development this paper develops a model of growth and income inequalities in the presence of imperfect capital markets and it analyses the trickle down effect of capital accumulation moral hazard with limited wealth constraints on the part of the borrowers is the source of both capital market imperfections and the emergence of persistent income inequalities three main conclusions are obtained from this model first when the rate of capital accumulation is sufficiently high the economy converges to a unique invariant wealth distribution second even though the trickle down mechanism can lead to a unique steady state distribution under laissez faire there is room for government intervention in particular redistribution of wealth from rich lenders to poor and middle class borrowers improves the production efficiency of the economy both because it brings about greater equality of opportunity and also because it accelerates the trickle down process third the process of capital accumulation initially has the effect of widening inequalities but in later stages it reduces them in other words this model can generate a kuznets curve

who are russia s entrepreneurs social scientists studying entrepreneurship have emphasized three distinct sets of variables the institutional environment sociological variables and personal and psychological characteristics we are conducting surveys in five large developing and transition economies to better understand entrepreneurship in this short paper using over 2 000 interviews from a pilot study in russia we find evidence that the three sets of variables matter perceptions of the local institutional environment social network effects and individual characteristics are all important in determining entrepreneurial behavior jel m13 o12 p12

detailed estimation of worklife expectancy for the measurement of human capital accounting for marriage and children abstract measuring an individual s human capital at a point in time as the present actuarial value of expected net lifetime earnings has a lengthy history calculating such measures requires accurate estimates of worklife expectancy here worklife estimates for men and women in the usa categorized by educational attainment race marital status parental status and current labour force status are presented race has a much larger impact on the worklife expectancy of men than women education is associated with larger worklife differentials for women the association between marriage and worklife expectancy is significant but of opposite sign for men and women married women men have a lower higher worklife expectancy than single women men parenthood is associated with a reduction in the worklife expectancy of women the association is smaller and varies from positive for some education marital status groups to negative for others for men

viewpoint male female wage differentials how can that be abstract the paper outlines the main empirical procedures that are used to document the male female wage differential and the extent to which it reflects discrimination it then discusses the evidence on male female wage differentials their existence the extent to which they reflect discrimination their changes over time and the factors that influence the gap particular attention is paid to more recent studies that control for a wider range of conventionally unobserved factors theoretical perspectives are then outlined focusing on the issue of how discriminatory wage differentials can survive given the forces of competition the impacts of policy initiatives are also discussed

experimental evidence on returns to capital and access to finance in mexico a strong theoretical argument for focusing on access to finance is that financial market imperfections can result in large inefficiencies as firms with productive investment opportunities underinvest lack of access to finance is a frequent complaint of microenterprises which account for a large share of employment in developing countries however assessing the extent to which a lack of capital affects their business profits is complicated by the fact that business investment is likely to be correlated with a host of unmeasured characteristics of the owner and firm such as entrepreneurial ability and demand shocks in a randomized experiment that gave cash and in kind grants to small retail firms providing an exogenous shock to capital the shock generated large increases in profits with the effects concentrated among firms that were more financially constrained the estimated return to capital was at least 20 33 percent a month three to five times higher than market interest rates

real business cycles in this paper we demonstrate how certain very ordinary economic principles lead maximizing individuals to choose consumption production plans that display many of the characteristics commonly associated with business cycles our explanation is entirely consistent with i rational expectations ii complete current information iii stable preferences iv no technological change v no long lived commodities vi no frictions or adjustment costs vii no government viii no money and ix no serial dependence in the stochastic elements of the environment we also provide a completely worked out example of the type of artificial economy we have in mind the time series properties of the example exhibit some major features of observed business cycles although this type of model may not be capable of explaining all of the regularities in actual business cycles we believe that it provides a useful well defined benchmark for assessing the relative importance of factors e g monetary disturbances

non traditional crops traditional constraints long term welfare impacts of export crop adoption among guatemalan smallholders this study documents the long term welfare effects of household non traditional agricultural export ntx adoption the analysis uses a unique panel dataset which spans the period 1985 2005 and employs difference in differences estimation to investigate the long term impact of non traditional agricultural export adoption on changes in household consumption status and asset position in the central highlands of guatemala given the heterogeneity in adoption patterns the analysis differentiates the impact estimates based on a classification of households that takes into account the timing and duration of non traditional agricultural export adoption the results show that while on average welfare levels have improved for all households irrespective of adoption status and duration the extent of improvement has varied across groups long term adopters exhibit the smallest increase in the lapse of two decades in spite of some early gains conversely early adopters who withdrew from non traditional agricultural export production after reaping the benefits of the boom period of the 1980s are found to have fared better and shown greater improvements in durable asset position and housing conditions than any other category