bond indenture provisions and the risk of corporate debt abstract this paper examines the effect of alternative bond indenture provisions on the allocation of risk among the firm s claimants the approach taken here differs from that of earlier studies in that risk allocation is examined while the firm s leverage in market value terms is held constant in this context four indenture provisions are examined 1 the time to maturity 2 the promised payment schedule 3 financing restrictions and 4 priority rules it is concluded that risk is transferred from stockholders to bondholders as the time to maturity and promised payment increase appropriately furthermore substitution of longer term debt for an equal amount of shorter term debt also increases the risk to bondholders while decreasing the risk to stockholders the analysis shows that a coupon bond can be represented by a unique discount bond with the same risk and value this permits the characterization of the effective maturity of a risky debt issue a concept analogous to the stochastic duration of a default free coupon bond these results are shown to be independent of the means used to finance the debt issue finally it is concluded that the relative risk associated with different bonds issued by the same firm cannot be determined by the structure of priority rules alone it is also necessary to consider the timing of the promised payments compared to that of the other debt issues in the firm s capital structure

has regulatory reform had any impact on bank efficiency in indonesia a two stage analysis abstractmore than a decade following the severe economic crisis 1997 indonesia has undergone major regulatory changes in its banking industry this article examines the impact of these regulatory changes on the relative technical efficiency te of the indonesian banking industry employing data envelopment analysis dea and censored tobit regression model additionally the bootstrap approach of simar and wilson is employed to provide statistical properties to the dea efficiency score the findings show that the industry on average is inefficient over the period of analysis also state owned and foreign owned banks are found to be more efficient than any other group of banks finally the impact of regulatory reforms is generally positive and statistically significant

does the bond market predict bankruptcy settlements this study shows the extent to which deviations from the absolute priority rule increase or decrease the bankruptcy emergence payoff to traded i e usually junior claimants bondholders the data indicate that on average bondholders benefit albeit slightly from absolute priority rule apr violations this paper also examines the degree to which the bond market in the bankruptcy filing month anticipates departures from the apr and other influences on the payoff to bondholders in other words we investigate the informational efficiency of the market for bankrupt bonds overall despite the complex and lengthy nature of bankruptcy proceedings the results support efficiency the finance literature has traditionally assumed that when a firm enters bankruptcy the creditors become the owners and the value of the firm is distributed according to the absolute priority rule apr the apr states that senior creditors should be fully compensated before junior creditors receive any portion of the bankrupt firm s value and junior creditors should receive full payment before shareholders receive any compensation in practice formal bankruptcy proceedings are complex processes that often violate the apr brown 1989 captures some of the intricacies of this process in a game theoretic model showing that the solution to the bargaining process in bankruptcy can involve deviations from the apr although the solution

detecting abnormal credit union performance abstract credit unions are an important financial intermediary but little credit union research is done a primary reason for the lack of research is the cooperative nature of the industry making traditional methods of detecting abnormal performance inappropriate this paper proposes two methods of detecting abnormal performance one parametric the other non parametric instead of testing the efficiency of the institution this paper proposes testing the return vector as indicated in the theoretical objective function of the member simulations demonstrate that both methods are correctly specified and powerful

market based empirical research in accounting a review interpretation and extension a decade and a half of the most concerted and ambitious research effort in accounting history is evaluated here it is the search into the relationship between publicly disclosed accounting information and the consequences of the use of this information by the major group of usersequity investors as such consequences are reflected in characteristics of common stocks traded in major exchanges this research effort known as market based accounting research mbar obtained its impetus from major developments in finance theory during the late 1950s and early 1960s these were the portfolio selection theory and its offspring the capital asset pricing model capm and the concept of informationally efficient capital markets ecm subsequent developments in information economics agency theory and optimal incentive signaling models were quickly incorporated into mbar while the impetus to this line of research came from other disciplines accounting was not only a beneficiary but also to a modest extent a benefactor mbar is relevant to the study of capital market efficiency the capm information economics and regulation this contribution distinguishes mbar from most accounting areas whose contributions to other disciplines are negligible in

providing a measure for bullwhip effect in a two product supply chain with exponential smoothing forecasts abstract in this paper a two product and two echelon supply chain is considered in order to quantify the bullwhip effect demands of the products are correlated and are represented by a first order vector autoregressive model retailer uses order up to ordering policy for replenishment of stocks and utilizes exponential smoothing forecast method to predict demand in lead time period according to the mentioned assumptions an equation is derived for bullwhip effect measurement and then a numerical example is presented for a better perception of the bullwhip effect behavior when the parameters change a comparison of the bullwhip effect measure has been done when two main forecasting methods i e exponential smoothing and moving average are used and empirical results are provided at last a cost analysis is conducted based on shortage and holding cost under different bullwhip effect measures

the structure of periodic review policies in the presence of random yield this work provides a comprehensive analysis of a general periodic review production inventory model with random variable yield existence of an order point whose value does not depend on yield being random is proved in the single period case without specifying the yield model and using a very general cost structure when yield is a random multiple of lot size the nonorder up to optimal policy is characterized for a finite horizon model the finite horizon value functions are shown to converge to the solution of an infinite horizon functional equation and the infinite horizon order point is shown to be no smaller than when yield is certain

the impact of forecasting methods on the bullwhip effect abstract this paper considers the impact of forecasting methods on the bullwhip effect for a simple replenishment system in which a first order autoregressive process describes the customer demand and an order up to inventory policy characterizes the replenishment decision a bullwhip effect measure is derived for the optimal forecasting procedure that minimizes the mean squared forecasting error for the specified demand process similar measures are obtained for the moving average and exponential smoothing methods the findings indicate that different forecasting methods lead to bullwhip effect measures with distinct properties in relation to lead time and underlying parameters of the demand process moreover a simple rule is established to help managers select a forecasting method that yields the lowest inventory cost

regional growth and finance in europe is there a quality effect of bank efficiency abstract in this study we test whether regional growth in 11 european countries depends on financial development and suggest the use of cost and profit efficiency estimates as quality measures of financial institutions contrary to the usual quantitative proxies of financial development the quality of financial institutions is measured in this study as the relative ability of banks to intermediate funds an improvement in bank efficiency spurs five times more regional growth then an identical increase in credit does more credit provided by efficient banks exerts an independent growth effect in addition to direct quantity and quality channel effects

the bullwhip effect in closed loop supply chains a systematic literature review abstract the bullwhip effect or how uncertainty associated with the end customers demand propagates through the entire supply chain has been widely discussed in supply chain management literature although there is a well established research stream on the causes and mitigating factors for the bullwhip effect in forward supply chains few studies have investigated how this phenomenon manifests itself in closed loop supply chains we argue that this phenomenon can affect the supply chain s environmental performance by increasing emissions waste and consumption of natural resources aiming at filling this theoretical gap this article compares the causes and mitigating factors of the bullwhip effect in forward supply chains and closed loop supply chains to this end we employ a systematic literature review that combines bibliometric and content analyses the studies examined in our review indicate that the causes of the bullwhip effect in closed loop supply chains are similar to those in forward supply chains however most of the studies have not considered that the quality of returned products are different from the quality of their new counterparts products adding another variable into the complexity of a given supply chain which in turn could lead to higher variability thereby causing the bullwhip effect regarding mitigation we found that the primary mitigating factor is related to increasing the product return rate moreover we suggest that closing a supply chain can reduce the bullwhip effect which could lead to positive impacts in the environmental performance of supply chains

nontraditional activities and the efficiency of us commercial banks abstract in recent years an increasing portion of bank income has been generated through nontraditional activities most studies of bank efficiency do not include any measure of nontraditional activities when measuring outputs in this paper cost revenue and profit efficiency are estimated by using models with and without nontraditional output the results suggest that the standard model which omits nontraditional output understates bank efficiency evidence also surfaces that based on efficiency the relative ranking of individual banks changes when nontraditional activities are included as a type of output

bank commercial loan markets and the role of market structure evidence from surveys of commercial lending abstract this paper seeks to test two tenets that underlie the current practice of antitrust analysis in banking the first is the view that bank commercial loan markets are local in nature and the second is the view that banks in more concentrated markets are more likely to engage in some form of noncompetitive behavior tests of both of these tenets are conducted using an extensive set of loan specific survey information not previously employed to address these issues results consistent with the existence of local banking markets and the dominance of competitive differences as an explanation for observed differences in loan rates are found

a unified theory of the dynamics of closed loop supply chains we investigate the dynamics of a closed loop supply chain with first order auto regressive ar 1 demand and return processes we assume these two processes are cross correlated the remanufacturing process is subject to a random triage yield remanufactured products are considered as goodas new and used to partially satisfy market demand newly manufactured products make up the remainder we derive the optimal linear policy in our closed loop supply chain setting to minimise the manufacturer s inventory costs we show that the lead time paradox can emerge in many cases in particular the auto and cross correlation parameters and variances of the error terms in the demand and the returns as well as the remanufacturing lead time all influence the existence of the lead time paradox finally we propose managerial recommendations for manufacturers

analysing the determinants of performance of best and worst european banks a mixed logit approach abstract using a dataset of 7635 observations on 1384 commercial banks operating in the eu between 1993 and 2001 we utilise a mixed logit model to identify factors that explain the probability of a bank being a best worst performer the empirical evidence confirms the importance of country level characteristics location and legal tradition and firm level features bank ownership balance sheet structure and size specifically smaller sized banks with higher loan intensity and foreign banks from countries upholding common law traditions have a higher probability of best performance

profit efficiency for spanish savings banks abstract frontier profit efficiency is examined for spanish savings banks over 1986 1991 a period in which the spanish banking has seen considerable deregulation in spain the standard assumption that firms operate in a perfectly competitive output market is unlikely to be met thus we use an alternative profit function specification which allows for market power in the output market profit efficiency is determined using the thick frontier approach and estimated using both alternative and standard profit function specifications to illustrate the effect of different assumptions regarding the competitiveness of the output market estimation of the alternative profit function suggests that the profit inefficiency of spanish savings banks which averaged 28 fell by forty percent between 1986 to 1991 the standard profit function which we believe yields less reliable results generated greater average inefficiency there was no significant shift up or down in the profit frontier itself

an investigation of lead time effects in manufacturing remanufacturing systems under simple push and pull control strategies in this paper we extend the push and pull control strategies defined by van der laan et al e a van der laan m salomon r dekker production planning and inventory control for remanufacturable durable products working paper 9531 a econometric institute erasmus university rotterdam the netherlands 1995 to evaluate numerically the effects of lead time duration and lead time variability on total expected costs in production inventory systems with remanufacturing although both strategies are non optimal they are relatively easy to analyse numerically and more importantly they are actually used in practice the most important outcomes of the study are that for both control strategies i manufacturing lead times have a larger influence on system costs than remanufacturing lead times ii a larger remanufacturing lead time may sometimes result in a cost decrease and iii a larger variability in the manufacturing lead time may sometimes result in a cost decrease

x efficiency in banking looking beyond the balance sheet the distribution free and stochastic frontier estimation methods are used to derive bank specific measures of cost and profit xefficiency this is done to investigate the importance of including aggregate measures of off balance sheet obs activities the results indicate that economic cost and production cost x efficiency estimates increase with the inclusion of the obs measure profit xefficiency estimates are largely unaffected further the composition of bankso obs activities appears to help explain interbank differences in cost and profit x efficiency estimates whereas bank size and the mix between on and off balance sheet banking activities are largely uncorrelated with the x efficiency estimates

property rights in a fishery regulatory change and firm performance a new method is introduced and applied to the british columbia halibut fishery to analyze changes in productivity of firms harvesting a natural capital stock the index number technique decomposes the contributions of output prices variable input prices fixed inputs and productivity to firm profits adjusted for changes in the natural capital stock an application of the method is given using micro level data from a common pool resource the indexes provide a ready made comparison of all firms to the most profitable firm per unit of resource stock benchmarking with the decompositions also allows firms and regulators to improve overall industry performance by allowing them to analyze what components are contributing most to relative economic profits

analysis of the bullwhip effect in a multiproduct setting with interdependent demands the bullwhip effect has been extensively studied primarily based on the analysis of various single product models with a few exceptions we extend the single product analysis to the multiproduct setting of interdependent demand streams with auto correlation and cross product correlation as well as contemporaneous correlation across forecasting errors we find that interdependency between demand streams plays a critical role in determining the existence and magnitude of the bullwhip effect specifically we consider two operating environments a the firm orders product specific materials so that the ordering decision is based on the product level and b the firm orders generic materials so that the order decision is based on the category level we show that even with demand pooling a firm operating at the category level can experience a larger bullwhip effect and a larger order variance under certain conditions that depend on the number of products in the category and the demand dependencies

the diversification and financial performance of us credit unions abstract for us credit unions revenue from non interest sources has increased significantly in recent years we investigate the impact of revenue diversification on financial performance for the period 1993 2004 the impact of a change in strategy that alters the share of non interest income is decomposed into a direct exposure effect reflecting the difference between interest and non interest bearing activities and an indirect exposure effect which reflects the effect of the institution s own degree of diversification on both risk adjusted and unadjusted returns measures a positive direct exposure effect is outweighed by a negative indirect exposure effect for all but the largest credit unions this may imply that similar diversification strategies are not appropriate for large and small credit unions small credit unions should eschew diversification and continue to operate as simple savings and loan institutions while large credit unions should be encouraged to exploit new product opportunities around their core expertise

financial distress drivers in brazilian banks a dynamic slacks approach abstract this study applies the dynamic slacks based model dsbm developed by tone and tsutsui 2010 in order to assess the evolution of input saving output increasing potentials in major brazilian banks from 1996 to 2011 we propose that these potentials or slacks can be used as proxies for an eventual financial distress situation in the future the main research objective is to determine whether or not different characteristics of bank type related to ownership size and merger and acquisition processes are significantly related to inefficiency levels and by extension to an eventual financial distress situation since higher inefficiency levels also imply lower input saving output decreasing potentials based on a balanced panel model secondary data from economatica were collected and analyzed results indicate higher inefficiency levels and slacks in small public and national banks policy implications are also addressed

supply chain forecasting when information is not shared the operations management literature is abundant in discussions on the benefits of information sharing in supply chains however there are many supply chains where information may not be shared due to constraints such as compatibility of information systems information quality trust and confidentiality furthermore a steady stream of papers has explored a phenomenon known as downstream demand inference ddi where the upstream member in a supply chain can infer the downstream demand without the need for a formal information sharing mechanism recent research has shown that under more realistic circumstances ddi is not possible with optimal forecasting methods or single exponential smoothing but is possible when supply chains use a simple moving average sma method in this paper we evaluate a simple ddi strategy based on sma for supply chains where information cannot be shared this strategy allows the upstream member in the supply chain to infer the consumer demand mathematically rather than it being shared we compare the ddi strategy with the no information sharing nis strategy and an optimal forecast information sharing fis strategy in the supply chain the comparison is made analytically and by experimentation on real sales data from a major european supermarket located in germany we show that using the ddi strategy improves on nis by reducing the mean square error mse of the forecasts and cutting inventory costs in the supply chain

quantifying the bullwhip effect in closed loop supply chains the interplay of information transparencies return rates and lead times abstract the bullwhip effect manifests itself in the form of an increased order and inventory variability in the uppermost nodes of the supply chain this dynamic phenomenon is not yet well understood in closed loop supply chain settings despite their growing importance in modern societies pursuing circular economy opportunities indeed the problem specific literature has provided somewhat conflicting findings to better understand the bullwhip effect in closed loop systems we obtain expressions for the order and inventory variance amplification in four archetypes that differ in the structure of information transparency interestingly we observe that the impact of return rates and lead times on the system performance strongly depend on the degree of supply chain visibility this perspective allows us to revisit discrepancies in prior works we later move the study from the operational to the economic prism here we prove the existence of an optimal return rate and we derive its expression in the four closed loop supply chain archetypes we show that the optimal rate is dependent on the node s cost structure the lead times and the variability of demand properties of the different closed loop systems and relevant managerial implications are also discussed in our work

do government owned banks trade market power for slack the quiet life hypothesis qlh posits that banks with market power have less incentives to maximize revenues and minimize cost especially government owned banks with a public mandate precluding profit maximization might succumb to a quiet life we use a unified approach that simultaneously measures market power and efficiency to test the quiet life hypothesis of german savings banks we find that average local market power declined between 1996 and 2006 cost and profit efficiency remained constant nonparametric correlations are consistent with a quiet life regarding cost efficiency but not regarding profit efficiency the quiet life on the cost side is negatively correlated with bank size quality of loan portfolio and local per capita income the last result indicates that the quiet cost life is therefore potentially due to benevolent excess consumption of local input factors by public savings banks

resource partitioning and the organizational dynamics of fringe banking we examine the emergence and proliferation of payday lenders fringe businesses that provide small short term but high cost loans we link the organizational dynamics of these businesses to two trends in consumer lending in the united states the continuing consolidation of mainstream financial institutions and the expansion of such institutions in the provision of financial services regarded as similar to payday loans we explain the coexistence in mature industries of large scale organizations in the market center and smaller specialists in the periphery by testing and extending the organizational model of resource partitioning our focus is on two under examined aspects of the model the dynamic underlying the partitioning process and the conditions under which the market remains partitioned the empirical analysis covers payday lenders banks and credit unions operating in wisconsin between 1994 and 2008

the bullwhip effect progress trends and directions the bullwhip effect refers to the phenomenon where order variability increases as the orders move upstream in the supply chain this paper provides a review of the bullwhip literature which adopts empirical experimental and analytical methodologies early econometric evidence of bullwhip is highlighted findings from empirical and experimental research are compared with analytical and simulation results assumptions and approximations for modelling the bullwhip effect in terms of demand forecast delay replenishment policy and coordination strategy are considered we identify recent research trends and future research directions concerned with supply chain structure product type price competition and sustainability

the systematic risk of corporate bonds this statement presents the usual perception of bond risk it is striking in that it does not discuss what is from a portfolio theoretic view the risk of a bond the covariance of its return with the returns of other assets this is in contrast to the typical discussion of the riskiness of common stocks where we find some discussion of systematic risk and the role it plays in determining equilibrium expected security returns

closed loop supply chains what reverse logistics factors influence performance this paper analyses the inventory and order flow dynamics in closed loop supply chains clscs in this kind of supply chains the reverse flow of materials entering the system for recycling purposes complicates the way in which inventories should be managed and replenishment policies should be designed specifically we analyse the relationships between some reverse logistics factors remanufacturing lead time return rate of recycled products reverse order policy and number of supply chain tiers on the order and inventory variance amplification we firstly perform a systematic literature review of the related studies secondly by adopting a difference equation math approach and design of experiment we perform a robust what if analysis of a clsc under a variety of operational and market conditions results show that ceteris paribus clsc outperforms a forward supply chain both in mono echelon and multi echelon structures and under both stationary and turbulent market demands furthermore reducing remanufacturing lead time and promoting information transparency may be crucial to improve clsc dynamics finally we use the research findings to provide interesting managerial consideration about how to reduce unnecessary operational members costs

banking reforms performance and risk in china we investigate the impact of the banking reform started from 2005 on ownership structures in china on commercial banks profitability efficiency and risk over the period 2000 2012 providing comprehensive evidence on the impact of banking reform in china we find that banks on average tend to have higher profitability lower risk and lower efficiency after the reforms and the results are robust with our difference in difference approach our results also show that the big 5 state owned banks socb underperform banks with other types of ownership when risk is measured by non performing loans npls over the entire study period but tend to have fewer npls than other banks during the post reform period our results provide some supporting evidence on the ongoing banking reforms in china suggesting that attracting strategic foreign investors and listing socbs on stock exchanges appear to be effective ways to help socbs deal with the problem of npls and manage their risk

enjoying the quiet life under deregulation evidence from adjusted lerner indices for u s banks abstract the quiet life hypothesis posits that firms with market power incur inefficiencies rather than reap monopolistic rents we propose a simple adjustment to lerner indices to account for the possibility of forgone rents to test this hypothesis for a large sample of u s commercial banks we find that adjusted lerner indices are significantly larger than conventional lerner indices and trending upward over time instrumental variable regressions reject the quiet life hypothesis for cost inefficiencies however lerner indices adjusted for profit inefficiencies reveal a quiet life among u s banks

the risk return attributes of publicly traded venture capital implications for investors and public policy abstract despite having provided original seed money to extremely successful start ups such as federal express cray research and apple computer the small business administration sba with encouragement from the u s senate has recently placed a moratorium on granting new small business investment company sbic licenses and due to perceived fund mismanagement at least some senators have suggested that the misguided sbis could lead to a mini s l bailout consequently the sba has threatened the existence of the sbic government assisted program two public policy issues arise first should the government sponsor sbics given their past risk return characteristics second if sba support does re emerge should changes be made to the organizational structure of sbics with respect to the first issue our study examines the risk return attributes of two categories of venture capital funds publicly traded business development corporations bdcs and sbics popular folklore as well as a recent study in this journal suggest that a well diversified fund of venture capital containing both sbics and bdcs outperforms the general market while previous research assumes that sbics are similar to bdcs we find striking dissimilarities between these groups during 1980 1986 sbics demonstrate significantly greater total and unsystematic risk but significantly less systematic risk than bdcs in addition sbics experience much higher returns on a risk adjusted basis than either the market proxy or bdcs financial theory suggests a number of reasons for the differential performance among the two groups moreover given the strong investment successes of publicly traded sbics during the early to middle 1980s and the ability of the public to monitor sbic investment in lieu of the sba we conclude that continued sba financing of sbics benefits the investment community however the investment performance of sbics in the late 1980s contrasts with the successes achieved earlier in the decade since 1986 many publicly traded sbics have performed poorly liquidated or changed their organizational status we conclude that many of these problems originate with the investment company act of 1940 this act limits operating flexibility of sbics discourages public trading and related monitoring by public investors and reduces the equity capital cushion accordingly we propose guidelines including audit and equity capital considerations that may mitigate difficulties stemming from the organizational structure of sbics public policy issues related to sba sponsorship of sbics are relevant to individual and institutional investors particularly as they relate to dividends liquidity investment allocation and portfolio risk of venture capital related funds for example our study indicates that publicly traded sbics on average appear to have greater corporate financial leverage and a large percentage of their portfolio invested in fixed income securities compared with private sbics which invest more heavily in equity funds to the extent that the sba relaxes dividend payout restrictions on sbic operating income we might expect lower financial leverage and a greater portfolio allocation to equity instruments this change would tend to reduce the financial risk related to sbic ownership and encourage the provision of equity capital to emerging enterprises

the luenberger indicator and productivity growth a note on the european savings banks sector we employ the luenberger productivity indicator to estimate productivity growth and its decomposition into technical change and efficiency change components for savings banks sectors in 10 eu countries between 1996 and 2003 the luenberger indicator requires less restrictive assumptions than standard nonparametric productivity indexes and it allows the assumption of profit maximization to be made for sample firms we estimate average productivity growth in the savings banks sector to be 2 78 per annum and driven almost entirely by technical change whilst the general results confirm earlier findings this study is one of the earliest to identify cross border differences in productivity growth in the savings banks sector

banks responses to deregulation profits technology and efficiency the deregulation of interest rates in the early 1980s raised bank funding costs and lowered profits in response banks raised fees for deposit services reduced branch operating costs and shifted to higher earning assets rates of return did not regain their prederegulation levels until the early 1990s our goal is to decompose the change in bank profits following deregulation into i intemal bank initiated adjustments to the new regulatory structure and ii external contemporaneous changes in banks business environment this decomposition will depend in part on the assumed competitive structure of the banking industry with perfect competition output and input prices are part of the external environment and banks responses are limited to changes in output and input quantities an alternative approach assumes imperfect competition where banks have some control over output prices deposit fees minimum balance requirements and interest rates on certain loans and output quantities and input prices comprise the external environment the altemative model is supported by the data using this model large banks but not smaller banks are found to have relied primarily on changing output prices and input use to mitigate and reverse the negative effects of deregulation on profits the adjustment to deregulation was essentially complete after four years following this additional changes in bank profitability during the late 1980s were primarily due to changes in banks business environment

corporate bond price data sources and return risk measurement to date a number of studies involving the use of bond prices and or returns have utilized the published prices of trades on the new york and other exchanges these exchange quotes reflect the odd lot activities of individual investors and account for only a negligible portion of the trading in listed issues in contrast the vast majority of listed corporate trading occurs over the counter and involves round lot trades between institutions given differences in market characteristics odd lot exchange prices may differ substantially from those in the round lot institutional market this study compares exchange quotations from moody s bond record with prices assigned by merrill lynch s institutional pricing service and uses each set of prices to calculate return and risk measures institutional merrill lynch bond prices are shown to be systematically greater than exchange moody s prices in addition bond returns based on merrill lynch prices are shown to yield significantly higher beta and r 2 estimates as well as significantly lower standard deviation and residual risk estimates

the deposits channel of monetary policy we propose and test a new channel for the transmission of monetary policy we show that when the fed funds rate increases banks widen the interest spreads they charge on deposits and deposits ow out of the banking system we present a model in which imperfect competition among banks gives rise to these relationships an increase in the nominal interest rate increases banks market power inducing them to increase deposit spreads and hence restrict deposit supply households respond to the increase in deposit prices by substituting from deposits into less liquid but higheryielding assets consequently changes in the nominal interest rate aect banks cost of capital and lending using branch level data on the universe of u s banks we show that following an increase in the fed funds rate deposit spreads increase by more and supply falls more in areas with less deposit competition we control for changes in banks lending opportunities by comparing branches of the same bank we control for changes in macroeconomic conditions by showing that deposit spreads widen immediately after a rate change and even if this change is fully anticipated our results imply that monetary policy has a signicant impact on how the nancial system is funded on the quantity of safe and liquid assets it produces and on its provision of loans to the real economy

do consumers pay for one stop banking evidence from an alternative revenue function abstract in providing financial services jointly banks may reduce costs due to complementarities in production cost economies of scope or raise revenues from complementarities in consumption revenue economies of scope cost economies of scope between bank deposits and loans have been found to be small revenue economies of scope are investigated here for the first time and found to be insignificant over 1978 1990 for both small and large banks and for those on or off the revenue efficient frontier the lack of complementarities between deposits and loans where benefits are most likely to occur suggests that claims of important synergies from an expansion of banking powers be taken with caution

economic value competition and financial distress in the european banking system abstract in this paper we examine the impact of a large number of factors at the bank level liquidity and credit risks asset size income diversification and market power at the industry level banking concentration and macro level real gdp growth on bank financial distress using an unbalanced panel of 308 european commercial banks between 1996 and 2009 the observations falling below a given threshold of the empirical distribution of the shareholder value ratio proxy bank financial distress we employ a panel probit regression and given the presence of overlapping data giving rise to residual autocorrelation we use the bertschek and lechner 1998 robust estimator of the covariance matrix of parameters we show that credit risk liquidity risk and bank market power are the most influential determinants of distressed shareholder value ratio finally we evaluate the model out sample forecasting performance over the 2008 2009 crisis period

endogenous bank risk and efficiency we develop a framework to incorporate bank risk as measured from the variance of profits or returns within a model of frontier efficiency our framework follows the premise that risk is endogenously related to efficiency we estimate our model using panel data for u s banks and bayesian techniques we show that excluding risk from the efficiency model significantly biases the efficiency estimates and the ranking of banks according to their competitive advantage we also demonstrate that there is a negative risk efficiency nexus with causality running both ways while our estimates of risk are fully consistent with the developments in the banking industry over the period 1976 2014

enjoying the quiet life under deregulation not quite summary most empirical studies in the banking literature assume that the alternative profit function is linearly homogeneous in input prices we show that such an assumption is theoretically unwarranted and that its use may yield misleading results we use koetter et al review of economics and statistics 2012 94 2 462 480 as a benchmark to showcase how empirical results can be sensitive to the linear homogeneity assumption contrary to koetter et al we find a positive relation between market power and profit efficiency when this assumption is dropped this relation is slightly weakened after the wave of intrastate and interstate deregulation but not enough to support the quiet life hypothesis copyright 2014 john wiley sons ltd

effects of heterogeneity on bank efficiency scores bank efficiency estimates often serve as a proxy of managerial skill since they quantify sub optimal production choices but such deviations can also be due to omitted systematic differences among banks in this study we examine the effects of heterogeneity on bank efficiency scores we compare different specifications of a stochastic cost and alternative profit frontier model with a baseline specification after conducting a specification test we discuss heterogeneity effects on efficiency levels ranks and the tails of the efficiency distribution we find that heterogeneity controls influence both banks optimal costs and profits and their ability to be efficient differences in efficiency scores are important for more than only methodological reasons first different ways of accounting for heterogeneity result in estimates of foregone profits and additional costs that are significantly different from what we infer from our general specification second banks are significantly re ranked when their efficiency is estimated with a specification other than the preferred general specification third the general specification gives the most reliable estimates of the probability of distress although differences to the other specifications are low

how did bank holding companies prosper in the 1990s abstract this paper examines the improved performance of us bank holding companies bhcs from 1991 to 1997 analysis of cost and profit functions using several alternative output specifications suggests that the gains were primarily due to productivity growth and changes in scale economies various econometric methodologies yield productivity growth of about 0 4 per year and the optimal size seems to have increased in the 1990s era of deregulation technological change and financial innovation estimates of both productivity growth and economies of scale are robust across traditional and non traditional output specifications despite the overall success however substantial cost and profit inefficiency existed for bhcs of all sizes in the 1990s these efficiency estimates are particularly sensitive to the output specification and failure to account for non traditional activities like off balance sheet obs items leads profit efficiency but not cost efficiency to be understated for the largest bhcs

mergers and technical efficiency in spanish savings banks a stochastic distance function approach abstract the aim of this paper is to test the temporal variation of technical efficiency of spanish savings banks during the period 1985 1998 furthermore we test whether merged and non merged firms have different levels and temporal patterns of technical efficiency a stochastic output distance function r w shephard theory of cost and production functions princeton university press princeton nj is employed to accommodate multiple output technology the distance function provides the advantage that it does not need information about prices so it can accommodate the multi product nature of the financial sector only using the quantities as data an important point when the assumptions about perfectly competitive markets are unlikely to be met the temporal variation of efficiency is modeled extending the battese and coelli journal of productivity analysis 3 1992 153 169 approach in two ways relaxing the monotonicity of the temporal variation pattern of the efficiency term and allowing for different patterns of efficiency change between merged and non merged firms

the risk of financial intermediaries this paper reconsiders the formal estimation of bank risk using the variability of the profit function in our model point estimates of the variability of profits are derived from a model where this variability is endogenous to other bank characteristics such as capital and liquidity we estimate the new model on the entire panel of us banks spanning the period 1985q1 2012q4 the findings show that bank risk was fairly stable up to 2001 and accelerated quickly thereafter up to 2007 we also establish that the risk of the relatively large banks and banks that failed in the subprime crisis is higher than the industry s average thus we provide a new leading indicator which is able to forecast future solvency problems of banks

the competitive role of credit unions in small local financial services markets although there is a considerable literature on the role of market structure in banking markets no attention has been given to the impact of the competitive discipline provided by credit unions on consumer credit rates offered by banks after presenting a theoretical framework for understanding the impact credit unions should be expected to have this article analyzes a pooled cross sectional time series sample with roughly 1 000 observations on relatively small united states markets with the focus on explaining bank rates for two types of consumer loans results confirm the previously observed role of market structure and suggest a significant role for credit unions in disciplining the exercise of market power by banks

fairly priced deposit insurance and bank charter policy the thrust of current deposit insurance reform risk based insurance premiums and capital requirements is an effort to price deposit insurance more fairly fairly pricing deposit insurance eliminates inequitable wealth transfers but it does not lead to an efficient equilibrium this paper shows that an alternative charter policy results in an efflcient separating equilibrium this article analyzes the effect of alternative charter policies when deposit insurance is fairly priced the thrust of current deposit insurance reformrisk based capital requirements 1988 and risk based insurance premiums 1994 is an effort to price deposit insurance more fairly chan greenbaum and thakor s 1992 seminal paper dramatically illustrated that fairly pricing deposit insurance is not enough to solve the deposit insurance problem in their model when banks hold nontraded private information assets no equilibrium exists with fairly priced deposit insurance unless banks earn rent or are subsidized fairly pricing deposit insurance eliminates inequitable transfers of wealth but it does not lead to an efficient equilibrium this paper shows that an alternative charter policy gives an efficient separating equilibrium the separating equilibrium segregates the market for insured transactions deposits from private information financial intermediation the analysis in this article provides support for the deposit insurance reform proposal in the recent 1993 national commission on financial institution reform recovery and enforcement ncfirre report to the president and congress and for merton and bodie s 1993 proposal both proposals impose a separating equilibrium that isolates insured transactions accounts and the public information traded assets that secure them from private information assets in the bank s portfolio the formal model developed here is designed to demonstrate the effect of charter policy on the efficiency of market equilibrium in an uncomplicated setting but the main result that a separating equilibrium is more efficient is extremely robust with respect to the model specification the model has two types of financial intermediaries intermediaries that hold nontraded private

some results on bond yield and default probability fisher 5 suggested that the difference between a corporate bond s promised yield tomaturity ytm and the ytm of a government bond of the same maturity is composed of the sum of the corporate default risk the variability of the firm s earnings the firm s reliability in meeting its obligations its capital structure and the bond s marketability since then fisher s measure has often been used to measure bond risk for example fraser and mccormack 6 have used the spreads between newly issued bank bonds and aaa bonds of compatible maturities as substitutes for riskless government bonds to measure the changes in banks borrowing risk after two large bank failures in their paper spread is intended to provide for intra firm industry default risk comparisons over time radcliffe 15 uses yield spreads to differentiate the riskiness among corporate bonds in this case the spread is used for inter firm risk comparisons sharpe 18 has suggested a similar measure of bond default risk which is the ytm less the expected rate of return however most of these papers do not provide a bond pricing model which would furnish the link between a firm s riskiness and the ytm and default risk of its bond without this it is difficult to draw inferences between ytm s and default risk

exploring the nexus between banking sector reform and performance evidence from newly acceded eu countries abstract the aim of this study is to examine the relationship between banking sector reform and bank performance measured in terms of efficiency total factor productivity growth and net interest margin accounting for the effects through competition and bank risk taking to this end we develop an empirical model of bank performance which is consistently estimated using recent econometric techniques the model is applied to bank panel data from ten newly acceded eu countries the results indicate that both banking sector reform and competition exert a positive impact on bank efficiency while the effect of reform on total factor productivity growth is significant only toward the end of the reform process finally the effect of capital and credit risk on bank performance is in most cases negative while it seems that higher liquid assets reduce the efficiency and productivity of banks

credit union loan rate determinants in the united states credit union participation in the consumer lending market continues to grow as an increasing number of consumers and small businesses become members and open accounts this study investigates the d

bond systematic risk and the option pricing model in this paper we examine the behavior of the systematic risk of corporate bonds a model that assumes d is constant is compared with a model that allows systematic risk to vary in a manner consistent with the black scholes merton options pricing model this procedure captures some fundamental properties of the movement of bond b and provides a starting point for improved models of the process generating bond returns a number of recent papers have shown that the systematic risk of corporate bonds is related to bond rating in this paper a model of the relation between the systematic risk of a bond customarily denoted b and the characteristics of the bond the issuer and the state of the capital markets is formulated and subjected to the empirical test the empirical analysis differs from the studies cited earlier in that the estimation technique explicitly allows for nonstationarity of b the paper is organized in the following manner a general market model regression with nonstationary coefficients is introduced in section i section i also shows how the black scholes merton option pricing model can be used to make predictions about the regression coefficient or b of corporate bonds section ii describes the methods and data used in the tests section iii presents the results and section iv contains a summary and suggestions for future research

financial sector liberalization bank privatization and efficiency evidence from pakistan abstract the pakistani banking system has been transformed over the past 15 years through liberalization the entry of private banks the privatization of public sector banks and the tightening of prudential regulations the effects of these changes on bank productivity and relative efficiency are investigated using various techniques bank productivity in terms of profits has increased and new entrants have been efficient but the dispersion of efficiency remains wide the privatized banks improved their profit efficiency in the period immediately following their privatization but in the subsequent years only one significantly improved its efficiency whereas the other did not differentiate itself in terms of efficiency from the remaining state owned banks the new private domestic banks generally proved to be among the most efficient and sometimes out performed the foreign banks

deregulation ownership and productivity growth in the banking industry evidence from india this paper analyzes the relationship between deregulation and total factor productivity tfp growth in the indian banking industry using a generalized shadow cost function approach tfp growth is decomposed into a technological change a scale and a miscellaneous component a disaggregated panel data analysis using the population of public and private banks over 1985 96 that covers both pre and post deregulation periods indicates that a significant decline in regulatory distortions and the anticipated increase in tfp growth have not yet materialized following deregulation while private sector banks have improved their performance mainly due to the freedom to expand output public sector banks have not responded well to the deregulation measures

a note on savings and loan ownership structure and expense preference a re examination this study extends the work of akella and greenbaum journal of banking finance 12 1988 419 through the use of a much larger nationwide sample of us saving and loan associations and supports their original finding of significant expense preference behavior in mutual savings and loans during their original study period 1979 80 this study also provides evidence that over the time period of substantial deregulation and changes in the competitive environment in the us financial services industry expense preference behavior for savings and loans decreased the results are consistent with the idea that the removal of barriers that restrict competition should improve managerial efficiency in firms that survive 2003 elsevier b v all rights reserved

time varying return and risk in the corporate bond market this paper examines the pricing of exchange traded long term corporate bond portfolios observable instruments measuring the term structure of interest rates levels of bond and stock prices and a january dummy are found to predict excess returns on corporate bonds an intertemporal asset pricing model with changing expectations and unobservable factors is then estimated for the predictable excess returns using hansen s generalized method of moments the results show that a multibeta linear time varying model of con ditional expected returns with constant betas can successfully value corporate bonds spe cifically the tests indicate the presence of two time varying hedge portfolios the data however support a single latent variable specification when all january observations are excluded this result suggests the existence of a strong january seasonal in one of the latent variables

multimarket contact competition and pricing in banking abstract in this paper we assess the impact of multimarket contact of banks on their market power by means of a simultaneous equation model in which the divergence of price from marginal cost is a function of multimarket linkages the model is estimated using aggregate data from the italian regions for the years 1997 2009 our results show that multimarket contact is positively and significantly correlated to the market power index and is also connected to both home and non home market concentration the evidence is robust to changes in model specification and multimarket contact measures and supports the idea that firms which have a greater amount of contact are more likely to collude

the determinants of bank rates in local consumer lending markets comparing market and institution level results 1 introductionwith the exception of a few very recent studies the sizeable literature on the impact of market structure in banking markets1 has ignored the potential competitive role played by credit unions this is surprising since the continuing consolidation of the financial services industry in recent years has naturally raised concerns about competitive effects and credit unions would seem to be a likely source of market discipline 2 this paper explores these issues using both market and firm data using a variety of approaches economists have started paying some attention to the interaction between banks and credit unions emmons and schmid 2000 using county level data examine twoway intertemporal linkages between credit union participation rates and market concentration of the commercial banking sector to support the view that the two types of institutions compete in the market for consumer deposits similarly feinberg and rahman 2001 find that credit union and bank rates for two consumer loan products can each be shown to be influenced by the other tokle and tokle 2000 found a competitive influence of credit unions on bank certificate of deposit cd rates offered in idaho and montana while feinberg 2001 explored their impact on consumer loan rates in a broader sample of relatively small local markets3 over the 1992 1997 period the latter article found that both unsecured and new vehicle loan rates offered by banks in these markets were affected in a significant manner by the market share held by the two leading banks implying a competitive role for smaller financial institutions generally and for new vehicle loan rates alone by the share of credit unions in those markets whether these results would generalize to larger metropolitan areas is unclear and is the topic of what follows i focus on the same two loan products 24 month unsecured non credit card loans and 48 month new vehicle loans both of which seem likely to be provided in a local market and empirically explain the determinants of bank loan rates in a sample of 56 markets both large and small for the period 1992 1998 an innovative aspect of this paper is that i analyze both market level data and institution level data for 81 banks in those 56 markets and consider as well the role of multimarket linkages affecting these banks 2 theoretical frameworkvirtually all models of imperfect competition imply that increasing entry and supply from fringe suppliers will lower prices this clearly suggests that an increasing credit union presence should discipline prices in local financial services markets to formalize i employ a modified version of the dominant firm price leadership model the modification involves the notion that while credit unions may generally be thought of as fringe suppliers not all banks and savings and loans sl ii as cu increases the li declines iii as epsilon sub cu increases the li declines and not quite as obvious but easy to derive iv the declines in ii and iii are larger in absolute value as cr2 is larger

on the international harmonization of bank regulation this paper offers a three way typology of bank regulation and examines the question of international harmonization for each category for economic regulation the danger is that harmonization could support and preserve domestic protectionist regulatory regimes but it could instead be a beneficial guise for lowering protectionist barriers the latter efforts should be encouraged for prudential regulation national regulation should be adequate to handle the extra stresses of international banking harmonization efforts e g the basle accord may offer only modest help but the accord may offer indirect help by limiting national governments competitive efforts implicitly to subsidize their banks risk taking activities finally for information regulation national regulation appears to be adequate and international harmonization does not appear to be necessary copyright 1994 by oxford university press

inventory performance under staggered deliveries and autocorrelated demand production plans often span a whole week or month even when independent production lots are completed every day and service performance is tallied daily such policies are said to use staggered deliveries meaning that the production rate for multiple days are determined at a single point in time assuming autocorrelated demand and linear inventory holding and backlog costs we identify the optimal replenishment policy for order cycles of length p with the addition of a once per cycle audit cost we optimize the order cycle length p via an inverse function approach in addition we characterize periodic inventory costs availability and fill rate as a consequence of staggering deliveries the inventory level becomes cyclically heteroskedastic this manifests itself as ripples in the expected cost and service levels nevertheless the cost optimal replenishment policy achieves a constant availability by using time varying safety stocks this is not the case with suboptimal constant safety stock policies where the availability fluctuates over the cycle

trends in efficiency in response to regulatory reforms the case of indian and pakistani commercial banks this paper attempts to estimate trends in the efficiency levels of indian and pakistani commercial banks between 1985 and 2003 a time period which encompasses two phases of significant change to the regulation of the financial sector in both countries our efficiency estimates show that during the initial years of the post reform period a reduction in efficiency is observed for banks in both countries however efficiency levels were found to have increased subsequently suggesting a period of initial adjustment throughout much of the 1990s followed by a subsequent correction in the latter part of the sample period

financial deregulation and total factor productivity change an empirical study of turkish commercial banks abstract in january 1980 a new liberal economic policy was adopted in turkey to promote financial market development and increase the efficiency and productivity of the financial sector by fostering competition among banks as a result of this policy the turkish banking system witnessed a series of legal structural and institutional changes throughout the 1980s to enhance their competitive viability turkish banks responded by streamlining their operations and investing in new technology utilizing a dea type malmquist total factor productivity change index we examine productivity growth efficiency change and technical progress in turkish commercial banks during the deregulation of financial markets in turkey we found that all forms of turkish banks although in different magnitudes have recorded significant productivity gains driven mostly by efficiency increases rather than technical progress efficiency increases however were mostly owing to improved resource management practices rather than improved scales our results also indicate that private banks began to close their performance gap with public banks in the new environment

shareholder value creation in japanese banking this paper advances the study of fiordelisi and molyneux 2010 by examining the shareholder value efficiency and its determinants for a large sample of japanese banks between 1999 and 2011 a new specifically tailored measure of the economic value added approach based on the shadow price of equity is developed in order to account for specific characteristics of the japanese banking system this new shareholder value measure is then used in a dynamic panel data model as a linear function of various bank risk bank specific and macroeconomic variables this study finds that cost efficiency gains credit risk and bank size are the most important factors in explaining the shareholder value creation in japanese banking cost efficiency changes are also found to significantly influence cost of equity capital

the price concentration relationship in banking the commonly observed positive correlation between market concentration and profitability may be explained by noncompetitive pricing behavior as argued by the structure performance hypothesis or by the greater efficiency of firms with dominant market shares as argued by the efficient structure hypothesis by examining the price concentration relationship instead of the profit concentration relationship this paper tests the structure performance hypothesis in a manner that excludes the efficient structure hypothesis as an alternative explanation of the results the results strongly support the structure performance hypothesis and are robust with respect to model specification measurement of concentration and econometric technique copyright 1989 by mit press

measuring and avoiding the bullwhip effect a control theoretic approach an important contributory factor to the bullwhip effect i e the variance amplification of order quantities observed in supply chains is the replenishment rule used by supply chain members first the bullwhip effect induced by the use of different forecasting methods in order up to replenishment policies is analysed variance amplification is quantified and we prove that the bullwhip effect is guaranteed in the order up to model irrespective of the forecasting method used thus when production is inflexible and significant costs are incurred by frequently switching production quantities up and down order up to policies may no longer be desirable or even achievable in the second part of the paper a general decision rule is introduced that avoids variance amplification and succeeds in generating smooth ordering patterns even when demand has to be forecasted the methodology is based on control systems engineering and allows important insights to be gained about the dynamic behaviour of replenishment rules