the housing market impacts of shale gas development using data from pennsylvania and an array of empirical techniques to control for confounding factors we recover hedonic estimates of property value impacts from nearby shale gas development that vary with water source well productivity and visibility results indicate large negative impacts on nearby groundwater dependent homes while piped water dependent homes exhibit smaller positive impacts suggesting benefits from lease payments results have implications for the debate over regulation of shale gas development jel l71 q35 q53 r31 technological improvements in the extraction of oil and natural gas from unconventional sources have transformed communities and landscapes and brought debate and controversy in the policy arena shale gas plays underlying the populated northeastern united states were thought to be uneconomical less than ten years ago but now contribute a major share of us gas supply 1 natural gas has been hailed as a bridge to energy independence and a clean future because of its domestic sourcing and compared with coal and petroleum derivatives its smaller carbon footprint and reduced emissions of other pollutants e g particulates sulfur dioxide car

tax policy asset prices and growth a general equilibrium analysis abstract this paper presents a computable general equilibrium tax policy model that combines a consideration of disaggregate industry effects with an integrated treatment of short and long run adjustments to policy initiatives the model s explicit consideration of forward looking investment decisions and adjustment dynamics permits assessments of short run effects of tax policy on asset values as well as long term impacts on capital accumulation simulations reveal that effects on asset values and investment depend critically on whether policies are oriented toward new or old capital investment tax credits yield significant increases in investment without conferring windfall gains to corporate shareholders corporate tax cuts with the same revenue cost on the other hand yield large windfalls to shareholders while providing only a modest investment stimulus incidence and growth effects differ considerably across sectors particularly between business and housing

recent developments in consumer credit risk assessment consumer credit risk assessment involves the use of risk assessment tools to manage a borrower s account from the time of pre screening a potential application through to the management of the account during its life and possible write off the riskiness of lending to a credit applicant is usually estimated using a logistic regression model though researchers have considered many other types of classifier and whilst preliminary evidence suggest support vector machines seem to be the most accurate data quality issues may prevent these laboratory based results from being achieved in practice the training of a classifier on a sample of accepted applicants rather than on a sample representative of the applicant population seems not to result in bias though it does result in difficulties in setting the cut off profit scoring is a promising line of research and the basel 2 accord has had profound implications for the way in which credit applicants are assessed and bank policies adopted

risk factor contributions in portfolio credit risk models abstract determining contributions to overall portfolio risk is an important topic in risk management for positions instruments and sub portfolios this problem has been well studied and a significant theory built around the calculation of marginal contributions we consider the problem of determining the contributions to portfolio risk of risk factors this cannot be addressed through an immediate extension of techniques for position contributions since the portfolio loss is a nonlinear function of the risk factors we employ the hoeffding decomposition of the portfolio loss into a sum of terms depending on the factors this decomposition restores linearity but includes terms arising from joint effects of groups of factors these cross factor terms provide information to risk managers since they can be viewed as best hedges of the portfolio loss involving instruments of increasing complexity we illustrate the technique on multi factor portfolio credit risk models where systematic factors represent industries geographical sectors etc

loose fruit mamas creating incentives for smallholder women in oil palm production in papua new guinea summary this paper presents a case study of the introduction of a more gender equitable payment scheme for oil palm smallholders in papua new guinea women are now paid separately from their husbands for their work on family oil palm plots thereby increasing the economic incentives for women to commit labor to oil palm production the study incorporates broader local cultural and economic processes in the analysis of intra household gender and labor relations to explain how the new payment systems successfully resolved intra household disputes over labor and income the paper highlights the critical role export firms can play in enhancing women s access to commodity crop income further the paper demonstrates that by widening the framework of household analysis insights can be gained into two key questions that have received only limited attention in the literature the question of why men do not share a greater proportion of cash crop income with other family members and the apparent inability of families to resolve intra household conflicts over income

a new look at residential electricity demand using household expenditure data the recent push for a federal energy policy that could substantially change electricity prices in the u s highlights the need to obtain accurate residential electricity demand estimates many electricity demand estimates have been obtained based on the assumption that consumers optimize with respect to known marginal prices but increasing empirical evidence suggests that consumers are more likely to respond to average prices under this assumption this paper develops a new strategy based on gmm to estimate household electricity demand our approach allows a national level demand estimation from publicly available expenditure data and utility level consumption data complementing studies that use individual billing data which are richer yet often proprietary we estimate the price elasticity near 1 which is at the upper end in magnitude among the estimates from previous studies we apply our elasticity estimates in a u s climate policy simulation to determine how these elasticity estimates alter consumption and price outcomes compared to the more conservative elasticity estimates commonly used in policy analysis

residential consumption of gas and electricity in the u s the role of prices and income abstract we study the residential demand for electricity and gas working with nationwide household level data that cover recent years namely 1997 2007 our dataset is a mixed panel multi year cross sections of dwellings households in the 50 largest metropolitan areas in the united states as of 2008 we estimate static and dynamic models of electricity and gas demand we find strong household response to energy prices both in the short and long term from the static models we get estimates of the own price elasticity of electricity demand in the 0 860 to 0 667 range while the own price elasticity of gas demand is 0 693 to 0 566 these results are robust to a variety of checks contrary to earlier literature metcalf and hassett 1999 reiss and white 2005 we find no evidence of significantly different elasticities across households with electric and gas heat the price elasticity of electricity demand declines with income but the magnitude of this effect is small these results are in sharp contrast to much of the literature on residential energy consumption in the united states and with the figures used in current government agency practice our results suggest that there might be greater potential for policies which affect energy price than may have been previously appreciated

erratum standards versus standards the effects of different pollution restrictions when economists refer to pollution standards they almost universally mean uniform restrictions on pollution emissions e g william j baumol and wallace e oates 1975 ch 13 susan rose ackerman 1973 david besanko 1978 however in practice standards take many forms not only emissions restrictions but restrictions on pollution per unit of output or per unit of an input restrictions on the use of a polluting input or mandated use of a particular pollution control technology these specifications of regulations will have a variety of effects on a firm s resource allocation decisions for instance allowing pollution per unit of output as the standard instead of directly restricting the level of pollution gives the firm some choice in addition to reducing pollution it can increase its output to dilute the pollution this paper examines the effects of five different forms of pollution standards on input decisions the level of production and firm profits the results show that the different standards by providing firms with different incentives change the firm s allocation decisions and affect the relative profitability of the standards section i reviews the existing literature on the incentives of different instruments the following section describes the model to be used five different forms of pollution constraints are individually examined in section iii using a graphical approach their relative effects as well as some special cases are assessed in section iv finally section v raises the case of different standards when firms are not identical

the windy commons wind power generation is growing rapidly in the united states doubling nearly every three years since 1998 yet wind is an open access resource and past experiences with open access resources suggest that tragedies of the commons may occur while the engineering literature has focused on turbine siting within a wind farm to maximize profits and minimize interaction effects the economics literature has overlooked interaction effects between windfarms we provide a qualitative framework for measuring wake externalities and use simulation modeling to determine their magnitude we find that a turbine wake externalities and thus losses to downwind sites increase with the square of wind velocity and can be substantial b decentralized ownership across wind farms leads to overcapitalization in upwind sites and undercapitalization in downwind sites relative to sole ownership c when multiple potential patches are considered more land will be used upwind for wind power under decentralized ownership and d numerical simulations suggest that total rents are reduced under decentralized ownership by up to 12 while total power produced increases by approximately 10 under our central parameters decentralized ownership may be preferred to a sole owner depending on the value society places on clean power relative to dirty power

efficiency costs of meeting industry distributional constraints under environmental permits and taxes many pollution related industries wield strong political influence and can e ectively veto policy initiatives that would harm their profits a politically realistic approach to environmental policy therefore seems to require the alleviation of significant profitlosses to these industries the regulatory authority can do this by freely allocating some emissions permits or by exempting some inframarginal emissions from a pollution tax however such policies compel the government to forego an e cient potential revenue source and to rely more heavily on ordinary distortionary taxes as a result achieving distributional objectives comes at a cost in terms of e ciency using analytically and numerically solved equilibrium models we analyze the e ciency costs implied by the distributional constraint that adverse impacts on profits in particular industries must be avoided both models indicate that the e ciency cost implied by this constraint dwarfs the other e ciency costs when the required amount of abatement is very small when the abatement requirement becomes more extensive however the cost of this constraint diminishes relative to the other e ciency costs of pollution control we also calculate the compensation ratio the share of potential policy revenue that the government must forego to protect the industries in question we show how this ratio is a ected by the extent of abatement supply and demand elasticities and the potential for end of pipe treatment one definition of this ratio corresponds to the share of pollution permits that must be freely allocated to prevent profit losses in the targeted industries numerical simulations of sulfur dioxide pollution control suggest that the bush administration s clear skies initiative would exceed this ratio freely allocating more permits than necessary to preserve profits our models also highlight significant di erences between gross and net policy revenues when abatement is extensive a large fraction of the revenue collected from emissions permits or taxes is o set by the revenue loss from erosion of the base of existing factor taxes

second best biofuel policies and the welfare effects of quantity mandates and subsidies abstract the quest for biorenewable energy sources is held to justify a number of government interventions including support policies for biofuels such as those responsible for the recent rapid growth of us ethanol production this article provides an analytical assessment of such policies we construct a general equilibrium open economy model that captures the rationale typically invoked to justify government intervention in this setting to alleviate the environmental impact of energy consumption and to decrease us energy dependence on foreign sources the model is used to study both the positive and normative implications of alternative policy instruments including the subsidies and mandates specified by the 2007 energy independence and security act from a positive perspective we find that biofuels mandates are equivalent to a combination of fuel taxes and biofuels subsidies that are revenue neutral from a welfare perspective we show that biofuels mandates dominate biofuels subsidies and that combining fuel taxes with mandates would be welfare enhancing

forecasting and decomposition of portfolio credit risk using macroeconomic and frailty factors this paper presents a dynamic portfolio credit model following the regulatory framework using macroeconomic and latent risk factors to predict the aggregate loan portfolio loss in a banking system the latent risk factors have three levels global across the entire banking system parent sectoral for the intermediate loan sectors and sector specific for the individual loan sectors the aggregate credit loss distribution of the banking system over a risk horizon is generated by monte carlo simulation and a quantile estimator is used to produce the aggregate risk measure and economic capital the risk contributions of the individual sectors and risk factors are measured by combining the hoeffding decomposition with the euler capital allocation rule for the u s banking system we find that the real gdp growth rate the global and sector wide frailty risk factors and their spillovers significantly affect loan defaults and the impacts of the frailty factors are not only economy wide but also sector specific we also find that the frailty risk factors make more significant risk contributions to the aggregate portfolio risk than the macroeconomic factors while the macroeconomic factors help to improve the accuracy and efficiency of the credit risk forecasts

wages for wives renegotiating gender and production relations in contract farming in the dominican republic abstract this study analyzes the intersection of gender and production relations in small scale contracting in nontraditional agriculture the case of the processing tomato industry in the dominican republic exemplifies patterns found throughout the region building on a critique of unitary household models i analyze the gendered relations mobilizing resources for contract farming as appears common contracting has heightened demand for women s farm labor contracting has simultaneously provided women with openings for contesting the appropriation of their unpaid labor and many women are claiming payment for work in contract farming this case demonstrates the importance of gender issues in informing contract farming debates and policy interventions

an investigation of the household economy coffee production and gender relations in papua new guinea using two years of intra household data from one area of the papua new guinea highlands this article examines the impact of gender relations on household coffee production poor relative labour returns for women and the unequal distribution of tasks within the household were found to exert considerable influence on the level of household success in cultivating coffee the article concludes with the construction of a model linking the intra household distribution of economic benefits determinants of household resource allocation and underdevelopment

gender and rural livelihoods in kenya this article considers the implications for gender relations of different rural livelihoods while many rural areas in kenya have been drawn into intensive commercial production others formerly dependent on remittances from migrant labour have seen these diminish recent empirical studies of gender and livelihoods in kenya are compared commercial production and the drying up of remittances set up quite different processes in rural households these may lead to greater corporateness to conflict or even to fragmentation the outcome depends on the potential rewards of co operation but also on domestic authority relations and on ideologies of common or divided interest

emissions reductions or green booms general equilibrium effects of a renewable portfolio standard renewable portfolio standards rps are commonly promoted as a policy tool to reduce emissions associated with fossil generation while also stimulating development of local renewable resource endowments we develop a general equilibrium model of an rps policy that captures key features such as a fixed factor renewable endowment substitution across sectors of the economy and endogenous price responses we analytically decompose the effects of an rps into a a substitution effect b an output tax effect and c an output effect we show that an increase in the rps can either deliver large resource booms or large emissions savings but not both our framework can translate different renewable resource endowments and pre existing standards across states into economic and environmental impacts to inform current renewable energy and climate policies

empirical credit cycles and capital buffer formation abstract we model 1927 1997 us business failure rates using an unobserved components time series model clear evidence is found of cyclical behavior in default rates we also detect significant longer term movements in default rates and default correlations in a multi year backtest experiment we show that accommodation of default rate dynamics has important consequences for credit risk capitalization requirements static or myopic variants of credit portfolio models miss significant periods of credit risk accumulation empirically congruent dynamic models by contrast provide more timely warning signals of credit risk build up in this way they may mitigate some of the pro cyclicality concerns

cost effectiveness of renewable electricity policies we analyze policies to promote renewable sources of electricity a portfolio standard rps raises electricity prices and primarily reduces gas fired generation a knee of the cost curve exists between 15 and 20 goals for 2020 in our central case and higher natural gas prices lower the cost of greater reliance on renewables a renewable energy production tax credit lowers electricity price at the expense of taxpayers which limits its effectiveness in reducing carbon emissions and it is less cost effective at increasing renewables than a portfolio standard neither policy is as cost effective as a cap and trade policy for achieving carbon emission reductions

analytical methods for hedging systematic credit risk with linear factor portfolios abstract multi factor credit portfolio models are used widely today for managing economic capital and pricing collateralized debt obligations cdos and asset backed securities commonly practitioners allocate capital to the portfolio components sub portfolios counterparties or transactions the hedging of credit risk is generally also focused on the deltas of underlying names we present analytical results for hedging portfolio credit risk with linear combinations of systematic factors based on the minimization of systematic variance of portfolio losses we solve these problems within a multi factor merton type credit portfolio model and apply them to hedge systematic credit default losses of loan portfolios and cdos

the economic aftermath of resource booms evidence from boomtowns in the american west the current us oil and gas boom is injecting labour capital and revenue into communities near reserves will these communities be cursed with lower long run incomes in the wake of the boom we study the oil boom and bust cycle of the 1970s and 1980s to gain insights using annual data on drilling to identify western boom and bust counties we find substantial positive local employment and income effects during the boom in the aftermath of the bust however we find that incomes per capita decreased and unemployment compensation payments increased relative to what they would have been if the boom had not occurred

emissions taxes versus intensity standards second best environmental policies with incomplete regulation the best emissions tax or emissions cap may be an inferior instrument under incomplete regulation leakage without leakage an intensity standard regulating emissions per unit of output is inferior due to an implicit output subsidy this inefficiency can be eliminated by an additional consumption tax with leakage an intensity standard can dominate the optimal emissions tax since the implicit output subsidy prevents leakage the addition of a consumption tax improves an intensity standard s efficiency may prevent leakage and may be efficient comparing intensity standards to output based updating shows that the latter dominates if updating is sufficiently flexible