male interracial wage differentials competing explanations persistent interracial wage differentials present a challenge for neoclassical models of discrimination which claim that long rung competition is not consistent with persistent discrimination this study provides an empirical examination of the missing variable and job competition models of interracial wage inequality the results argue strongly against the missing variables approach and strongly in favor of the job competition model specifically this study finds that about one half of the male african american white and latino white interracial wage differentials are due to market discrimination against african americans and latinos in addition the positive and significant coefficients on the race gender employment density variables strongly affirm the job competition model s contention that access to white especially male dominated jobs increases an individual s wage rate regardless of race racial job segregation then is an important explanatory variable for racial wage discrimination copyright 1999 by oxford university press

low inflation the behavior of financial markets and institutions this paper provides a broad overview of the potential impact of low inflation deflation on u s financial markets and institutions it is argued that the contemporary experience of japan and the historical experience of the united states in the 1920s and 1930s offer only limited insights into the potential impact of low inflation deflation on today s u s financial system a number of potential implications are discussed including a decline in secondary market trading and a trend towards reintermediation in addition low inflation deflation is likely to have a material effect on bank duration and convexity exposures

wages sorting on skill and the racial composition of jobs wages for black and white workers are substantially lower in occupations with a high density of black employees following standard controls such correlations can exist absent discrimination or as a result of discrimination in wage level equations partial correlations fall sharply after controlling for occupational skills longitudinal estimates accounting for worker heterogeneity indicate little wage change associated with changes in racial composition results support a quality sorting rather than discrimination explanation with racial density serving as an index of unmeasured skills discrimination reflected in racial wage gaps occurs within occupations or across occupations in a manner uncorrelated with racial composition

does inequality matter for the consumption wealth channel empirical evidence abstract this paper studies the heterogeneity of the marginal propensity to consume out of wealth based on french household surveys this heterogeneity is driven by differences in both wealth composition and wealth levels we find a decreasing marginal propensity to consume out of wealth across the wealth distribution for all net wealth components the marginal propensity to consume out of financial assets tends to be higher compared with the effect of housing assets except at the top of the wealth distribution the marginal propensity to consume out of housing wealth increases with debt pressure and depends on debt composition based on a simulation exercise we find a limited effect of wealth shocks on consumption inequality an increase in stock prices tends however to slightly increase consumption inequality especially at the top of the distribution

the case of the negative nominal interest rates new estimates of the term structure of interest rates during the great depression throughout the 1930s and early 1940s u s treasury bonds and notes appeared to have negative nominal yields as they approached maturity but negative nominal interest rates are impossible in a world in which one can always hold cash the resolution to this puzzle is that treasury securities in addition to making coupon payments gave the owner the right to buy a new security on a future date this paper describes the institutional environment that led to the apparent negative nominal interest rates develops a method for valuing the exchange privilege and computes accurate measures of the yield to the coupon bearing component of these composite bond options these corrected bond and not yields are then used to calculate new estimates of the term structure of interest rates from 1929 to 1949

ethnicity neighborhoods and human capital externalities the socioeconomic performance of today s workers depends not only on parental skills but also on the average skills of the ethnic group in the parents generation or ethnic capital this paper investigates the link between the ethnic externality and ethnic neighborhoods the evidence indicates that residential segregation and the external effect of ethnicity are linked partly because ethnic capital summarizes the socioeconomic background of the neighborhood where the children were raised ethnicity has an external effect even among persons who grow up in the same neighborhood when children are exposed frequently to persons who share the same ethnic background copyright 1995 by american economic association

the liquidity trap and u s interest rates in the 1930s most current literature assumes that a central bank loses the ability to influence interest rates through variations in reserve supply as soon as overnight rates have been driven to zero i argue that reserve supply can be directly related to longer term rates when overnight rates are zero because banks reserve demand is then defined by the role of cash as an asset free of interest rate risk i present evidence that reserve supply affected longerterm interest rates in the u s from 1934 through 1939 while overnight rates were at the zero floor even when the changes in reserve supply reflected factors unlikely to have affected expectations of future overnight rates

was the deflation during the great depression anticipated evidence from the commodity futures market futures prices were well above spot prices for most commodities during most of the great depression evidently the spectacular declines in agricultural prices caught many people by surprise based on the historical correlations between commodity prices and consumer prices commodity markets anticipated stable consumer prices during the first year of the great depression the dramatic drop in nominal treasury bill yields thus should be read as a drop in ex ante real rates later in the great depression markets anticipated deflation but not as severe as actually occurred copyright 1992 by american economic association

discrimination in an equilibrium search model i construct an equilibrium search model where some employers have a distaste for hiring minority workers and show that this bias results in economic discrimination against minority workers although only unprejudiced firms hire minority workers minority workers receive lower wages than workers not facing discrimination whenever any employers in the market have a distaste for minority workers one implication of the model is that gender or racial wage differentials understate the utility loss from discrimination in addition the wages of minority workers increase when their proportion increases in the labor market

were price changes during the great depression anticipated abstract this paper reassesses whether the large swings in prices during the 1930 s were anticipated we argue that uncertainty about monetary fiscal and exchange rate policies induced systematic differences between the rate of price change expected by economic agents at the time and the time series forecasts of inflation our analysis of nominal interest rates and ex post inflation strongly supports this view in fact our results suggest that the deflation of the early depression years and the inflation that followed were both largely unanticipated

labor earnings discrimination and the racial composition of jobs this paper examines the effect of the racial composition of labor markets on wage rates and the racial wage gap the wage rates of white as well as black workers are significantly lower in industry occupationregional groups with high densities of black workers while the racial wage gap does not vary systematically with respect to racial density interpretation of racial gap estimates can be sensitive to inclusion of a racial density variable particularly in sparse specifications an explanation for the wage density relationship cannot be established but results are most consistent with a quality sorting explanation and to a lesser extent the crowding hypothesis

on the determination of occupational attainment and mobility the underlying motivation for much of the research into the determinants of occupational attainment is to enable inferences to be made as to the relative position of various groups at a point in time or an individual s economic mobility over time in this paper we compare unordered and ordered discrete choice approaches to estimating models of occupational attainment estimates from these methods differ substantially indicating that the determination of which technique is more appropriate is an important issue the ordered method appears to be more consistent with the motivation of previous research and requires less computer time unordered models however are better able to predict occupational distribution

great expectations and the end of the depression what ended the great depression in the united states this paper suggests that the recovery was driven by a shift in expectations this shift was triggered by president franklin delano roosevelt s fdr policy actions on the monetary policy side roosevelt abolished the gold standard and announced an explicit policy objective of inflating the price level to pre depression levels on the fiscal policy side roosevelt expanded real and deficit spending which helped make his policy objective credible the key to the recovery was the successful management of expecta tions about future policy roosevelt s rise to power is modeled as a policy regime change as in thomas sargent 1983 and peter temin and barry wigmore 1990 this paper formalizes temin and wigmore s argu ment in a repeated game setting using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model and argues that the regime change can account for the recovery in the model a regime change means the elimination of certain policy dogmas that constrain the actions of the government the regime change generates an endogenous shift in expectations due to a coordination of mon etary and fiscal policy this coordination ended the great depression by engineering a shift in expectations from contractionary i e the private sector expected future economic contrac tion and deflation to expansionary i e the public expected future economic expansion and inflation the expectation of higher future inflation lowered real interest rates thus stimulating demand while the expectation of higher future income stimulated demand by raising permanent income

inflation forecast targeting an alternative approach to estimating the inflation output variability tradeoff we suggest a new way of computing the inflation output variability tradeoff under inflation forecast targeting our approach is based on dynamic stochastic simulations of the average inflation rate over a two year horizon using the moving average representation of a vector autoregressive var model using real time data over two samples we estimate the inflation output variability tradeoff for the united states and show that it has shifted favorably over time we analyze the policy interventions required to achieve target inflation in each sample and compare these interventions over time

are negative option prices possible the callable u s treasury bond puzzle market prices for callable treasury bonds often imply negative values for the implicit call option the author considers a variety of possible explanations for these negative values including the treasury s track record in calling bonds optimally tax related effects tax timing options and bond liquidity none of these factors accounts for the negative values although the costs of short selling may explain why these apparent arbitrage opportunities persist over time why these implicit call values become negative in the first place remains a puzzle copyright 1992 by university of chicago press

the efficiency of search under competition and monopsony this paper compares monopsonistic and competitive search equilibria while the competitive equilibrium is efficient the monopsonistic equilibrium is not there is too much search and the employment rate is too low

arbitrage with fixed costs and interest rate models in this paper we study securities market models with fixed costs we characterize the absence of arbitrage opportunities and we provide fair pricing rules we then apply these results to extend some popular interest rate and option pricing models which present arbitrage opportunities in the absence of fixed costs in particular we prove that the quite striking result obtained by dybvig ingersoll and ross 1996 which asserts that under the assumption of absence of arbitrage long zero coupon rates can never fall is no longer true in models with fixed costs even arbitrarily small ones for instance models where the long term rate follows a diffusion process are arbitrage free in the presence of fixed costs including arbitrarily small ones we also rationalize models with partially absorbing or reflecting barriers on the price processes in particular we propose a version of the cox ingersoll and ross 1985 model which as in longstaff 1992 produces yield curves with realistic humps but does not assume an absorbing barrier for the short term rate this is made possible by the presence of even arbitrarily small fixed costs

divergent paths a new perspective on earnings differences between black and white men since 1940 we present new evidence on the evolution of black white earnings differences among all men including both workers and nonworkers we study two measures i the level earnings gap the racial earnings difference at a given quantile and ii the earnings rank gap the difference between a black man s percentile in the black earnings distribution and the position he would hold in the white earnings distribution after narrowing from 1940 to the mid 1970s the median black white level earnings gap has since grown as large as it was in 1950 at the same time the median black man s relative position in the earnings distribution has remained essentially constant since 1940 so that the improvement then worsening of median relative earnings have come mainly from the stretching and narrowing of the overall earnings distribution black men at higher percentiles have experienced significant advances in relative earnings since 1940 due mainly to strong positional gains among those with college educations large relative schooling gains by blacks at the median and below have been more than counteracted by rising return to skill in the labor market which has increasingly penalized remaining racial differences in schooling at the bottom of the distribution

the bond price support program as a change in policy regimes evidence from the term structure of interest rates recently mankiw miron and weil 1987 argued that a change in policy regimes generally affects the public s expectations of future interest rates to illustrate this influence they compare the operation of the gold standard with the post gold standard regime in the united states they find that nominal short term interest rates were mean reverting before 1914 but became nonstationary after the creation of the federal reserve system we extend mankiw miron and weil s analysis by noting that the period from 1914 to the present cannot be characterized as one uninterrupted episode of policy discretion the united states temporarily abandoned discretion for a rule in the 1940s the fed and treasury agreed in april 1942 that the fed would adjust federal reserve credit in a manner that would produce relatively low market rates on longterm securities in particular the fed committed itself to support twenty year government bond prices at a level consistent with a 2 5 percent interest rate ceiling we investigate the possibility that the bond price support program of the 1940s conditioned the behavior of short term interest rates in a predictable way according to the expectation theory of the term structure a binding long term interest rate ceiling implies that an increase in the current short rate must cause the sum of the innovation and the change in future expected rates to be zero otherwise the long rate rises above the ceiling and the public perceives a violation of the bond rate commitment placing a binding ceiling on long term interest rates tends to make short term interest rates mean reverting

does school quality explain the recent black white wage trend around 1980 the trend toward racial wage convergence essentially stopped i ask whether this break in the convergence trend can be explained by school quality department of education surveys provide earnings data for the high school class of 1972 in 1979 and the class of 1980 in 1986 both linked to data from the respondents high schools by several measures differences between schools attended by blacks and whites were already rather small in the 1970s furthermore i find that measurable school inputs generally have little effect on wages thus school quality explains little of the recent black white wage trend

ethnicity race and earnings abstract utilizing the 1980 and 1990 usa censuses and blinder oaxaca decompositions we examine the extent of discrimination across women and men by ancestry and race the charge that blinder oaxaca decompositions indicate cultural rather than discriminatory differentials is addressed with two futher experiments one that controls for color and varies culture and one that controls for culture and varies color

overcoming the zero bound on interest rate policy the paper proposes three options for overcoming the zero bound on interest rate policy a carry tax on money open market operations in long bonds and monetary transfers a variable carry tax on electronic bank reserves could enable a central bank to target negative nominal interest rates a carry tax could be imposed on currency to create more leeway to make interest rates negative quantitative policy monetary transfers and open market purchases of long bonds could stimulate the economy by creating liquidity broadly defined a central bank needs more fiscal support than usual from the treasury to pursue quantitative policy at the interest rate floor

selectivity bias in male wage equations black white comparisons recent studies have documented a significant rise in the male black white earnings ratio since the mid 1960s the growing difference in nonemployment rates of blacks and whites clouds these optimistic findings the basic question addressed in this paper is whether selectivity bias caused by racial differences in employment rates is a serious problem in the estimation of wage functions for adult males for males age 21 34 we found no evidence of selectivity bias but for the older cohort of males age 35 54 the results are quite different for both whites and blacks there is strong positive selection bias it appears that biased estimates of several important coefficients are obtained using simple ordinary least squares procedures the most interesting of these are the effect of low education for blacks

a theory of dual labor markets with application to industrial policy discrimination and keynesian unemployment this paper develops a model of dual labor markets based on employers need to motivate workers in order to elicit effort from their workers employers may find it optimal to pay more than the going wage this changes fundamentally the character of labor markets the model is applied to a wide range of labor market phenomena it provides a coherent framework for understanding the claims of industrial policy advocates it also can provide the basis for a theory of occupational segregation and discrimination that will not be eroded by market forces finally the model provides the basis for a theory of involuntary unemployment

an examination of country member bank cash balances of the 1930s a test of alternative explanations around march 1933 commercial banks began accumulating unprecedented amounts of cash uncertainty over deposits and loans low interest rates relative to brokerage fees and costly de novo capital have been used to explain this behavior this paper employs aggregate call date data for country member banks in the 12 federal reserve districts to formally investigate the role of these factors in the accumulation the results indicate a minimal if any role for these factors the findings suggest that it was the unintended consequence of unprecedented deposit growth in the face of large scale related adjustment costs

ethnic capital and intergenerational mobility this paper analyzes the extent to which ethnic skill differentials are transmitted across generations i assume that ethnicity acts as an externality in the human capital accumulation process the skills of the next generation depend on parental inputs and on the quality of the ethnic environment in which parents make their investments or ethnic capital the empirical evidence reveals that the skills of today s generation depend not only on the skills of their parents but also on the average skills of the ethnic group in the parent s generation

evidence on discrimination in employment codes of color codes of gender there is substantial racial and gender disparity in the american economy as we will demonstrate discriminatory treatment within the labor market is a major cause of this inequality the evidence is ubiquitous careful research studies that estimate wage and employment regressions help wanted advertisements audit and correspondence studies and discrimination suits that are often reported by the news media yet there appear to have been periods of substantial reductions in economic disparity and discrimination for example donohue and heckman provide evidence that racial discrimination declined during 1965 1975 1 gottschalk has produced statistical estimates that indicate that discrimination against black males dropped most sharply between 1965 and 1975 and that discrimination against women declined during the interval 1973 1994 2 but some unanswered questions remain why did the movement toward racial equality stagnate and eventually decline after the mid 1970s what factors are most responsible for the remaining gender inequality what is the role of the competitive process in the elimination or reproduction of discrimination in employment

a language theory of discrimination any advanced industrial society is composed of a number of speech communities with different verbal and nonverbal languages in particular in the united states blacks and whites and men and women have sharply differing methods of speaking and listening this paper develops a model in which people can only work together if they speak the same language and in which it is costly to learn a second language the competitive market will tend to minimize communication through segregation but if interaction is required the cost will be borne by the minority a number of nontrivial predictions are derived from the model

self selection and the distribution of hourly wages this article formulates and estimates alternative equilibrium models of industrial wage determination and self selection in explaining industrial wage differentials we find that it is important to account for heterogeneous sector specific skills and self selection decisions by agents concerning their sector of employment the classical roy model is rejected so is an efficiency units model of the labor market a revised roy model that accounts for comparative advantage in the choice of industrial sectors and choice between market and nonmarket work is much more successful in explaining cross section wage distributions and their evolution over time

moneyspots extraneous attributes and the coexistence of money and interest bearing nominal bonds it is folklore among monetary theorists that under laissez faire without ad hoc assumptions that favor money over bonds there do not exist equilibria in which government issued fiat money coexists with nominal default free interest bearing government bonds with similar physical characteristics this proposition is the basis for the strongest version of the rate of return dominance puzzle in this paper i show that if as has been the case throughout monetary history the physical object used as fiat money is heterogeneous in an extraneous attribute then there exist equilibria in which money coexists with interest bearing bonds

the role of human capital in earnings differences between black and white men d uring the past 50 years the earnings of black men have increased substantially both in absolute terms and relative to those of white men as shown in figure 1 in 1940 the black white weekly earnings ratio among men ages 25 34 was 49 percent by 1980 it had increased to 79 percent during the 1980s however the overall black white earnings gap did not narrow and at younger ages the gap actually widened although the 1980s is not the first decade since 1940 in which black men made little or no gains in relative earnings the 1950s was another the lack of progress in the 1980s is nevertheless puzzling and a source of concern this article examines the factors underlying the differential in earnings between black men and white men with a focus on the role of human capital since 1940 successive generations of black men entering the labor force have been increasingly more educated relative to white men both in terms of years of school completed and in the quality of schooling obtained as the education and income levels of black parents increased racial differences in the transmission of human capital in the home were also likely to have narrowed this convergence in educational differences combined with the migration of blacks out of the south contributed to the narrowing in the racial gap in earnings over the 1940 80 period particularly in the first half of the period but human capital factors education and migration were not the only source of convergence in black white differences in earnings the patterns of change in the earnings gap support the contention that declining labor market discrimination against blacks has also contributed to the rise in the black white earnings ratio moreover the acquisition of human capital itself has been strongly affected by societal and governmental discrimination since blacks were long provided with greatly inferior schooling resources

peddlers forever culture competition and discrimination contemporary economic theory has all but completed the burial of the idea that market discrimination explains racial wage differentials or differences in general pecuniary accomplishments across ethnic groups under competitive conditions we need only await the eulogy interment began with the failure of the model premised on employers taste for discrimination the preferences of employers for members of one group over another could not sustain wage differentials under competition if the individuals from each group were equally able although the initial argument was made under the assumptions of neoclassical perfect competition it was beaten back by the austrian process view of competition see israel kirzner 1973 a latent reservoir of alert entrepreneurs presumably would seize the profit opportunities generated by the discriminatory wage gap drive discriminating employers from the market and erode the wage differentials valiant efforts emerged subsequently to raise from the dead the idea that competition might eliminate market discrimination these efforts involved the development of market discrimination models under the states of affairs characteristic of neoclassical imperfect competition or so called statistical discrimination neither case precluded the possibility of ingenious entrepreneurship nor the entrepreneurial capacity to smell profits kirzner p 229 as a result in neither case could the existence of wage or earnings differentials be maintained by employer decisions in the first case the inventive entrepreneur could circumvent or bring down the barrier that was the source of the imperfection similarly in the second case the clever entrepreneur could devise new procedures for overcoming existing informational discrepancies that might exist about the abilities of the members of each of the ascriptively distinct groups see darity 1982 the application of the austrian process view of competition to the problem of racial and ethnic wage differences stripped market discrimination of its analytic significance however the empirical persistence of such wage differentials in the u s economy is well established the demise of the theory of market discrimination under competitive conditions has led to increasing use of the human capital explanation for differences in economic achievement across ascriptively distinct groups after many years and scores of statistical studies that revealed that convergence in observable human capital characteristics especially years of formal education did not lead to the anticipated abolition of black white wage gaps see williams 1984 there is now a shift underway that identifies the source of the alleged human capital differences as unobservable cultural differences between ascriptively distinct groups cultural variation is accorded primacy in explaining ethnic and racial differences in economic achievement in light of the death of the market discrimination explanation the culturalogical explanation is given added force by the observation that certain ethnic groups japanese and jewish americans to name but two have managed to succeed despite discrimination see barry chiswick 1983a b the themes of culture and competition thus are the focus of this essay we first provide substantive and historical critiques of the new cultural variant of the human capital theory second we argue that the existence of ongoing market discrimination can be revived by employing an alternative university of north carolina chapel hill nc 27514 and university of texas austin tx 78712 respectively we are grateful to art goldsmith bobbie horn steve steib and david swinton for helpful comments research support was provided by the southern center for public policy studies at clark college in atlanta

monetary factors in the great depression this paper examines the role of monetary policy in the early stages of the great depression and considers the mechanism whereby this policy may have affected real activity i conclude that the depression was preceded by a dramatic shift towards a highly contractionary monetary policy the economic impact of this policy seems unlikely to have come through the conventional keynesian channels of a shortage of liquidity and high ex ante real interest rates but instead may have operated through unanticipated deflation and after 1930 through the disruption of financial intermediation as a consequence of the banking panics

the worker discipline effect a disaggregative analysis the authors test for the presence of a worker discipline effect wherein macroeconomic conditions influence worker effort and examine interindustry variation in its strength an employment function analysis is first used to find evidence of a worker discipline effect in the majority of u s three digit manufacturing industries a factor analysis of industry firm and labor market characteristics is then used to identify several underlying factors by which industries can be distinguished the authors find that the strength of the worker discipline effect is positively and significantly correlated with the degree to which industries have secondary characteristics copyright 1990 by mit press

the role of supervisors in the determination of wages and wage gaps this article considers labour market discrimination by supervisors as a potential contributor to racial and gender wage gaps empirical analysis reveals evidence that all workers except hispanic males earn significantly higher hourly wages when working for a supervisor of the same race and sex as themselves furthermore the results suggest that sex has a larger impact on wages than race for workers with white supervisors while race has a larger impact on wages than sex for workers with minority supervisors based on past research we theorize that the degree of labour discrimination workers face may also be dependent upon the location and size of the firm in which they are employed however decomposing the samples by firm location and size suggests that these two factors cannot adequately explain the observed matched supervisor worker wage effects which supports the notion that these wage effects are largely driven by factors other than supervisor discrimination

the cost of financial frictions for life insurers during the financial crisis life insurers sold long term policies at deep discounts relative to actuarial value the average markup was as low as 19 percent for annuities and 57 percent for life insurance this extraordinary pricing behavior was due to financial and product market frictions interacting with statutory reserve regulation that allowed life insurers to record far less than a dollar of reserve per dollar of future insurance liability we identify the shadow cost of capital through exogenous variation in required reserves across different types of policies the shadow cost was 0 96 per dollar of statutory capital for the average company in november 2008 jel g01 g22 g28 g32

blacks hispanics and white ethnic groups are blacks uniquely disadvantaged despite the impression that the federal statistical system has been starved for resources the record over the last decade or so judged by conventional deflation methods has been one of rough stability the quality of u s international data on commodity and service trade direct investment and export and import prices has improved but there has been a serious deterioration in data on portfolio capital flows stocks and income where improvements have taken place the main source has been computerization both inside and outside the federal statistical system the standard deflators for expenditures do not adequately take account of the decline in the cost of computing and therefore impart a downward bias to the estimates of input despite the gains in some areas serious deficiencies remain for the increasingly important international sector the improvements that have occurred have resulted mainly from congressional and outside pressures while successive administrations have shown little concern with the quality of the data they produce and presumably use for policy making this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item