the value of value pricing of roads second best pricing and product differentiation abstract some road pricing demonstrations use value pricing in which travelers can choose between a free but congested roadway and a priced roadway recent research has uncovered a potentially serious problem for such demonstrations second best tolls may be far lower than those typically charged and from a welfare perspective the latter may be worse than not pricing at all that research however assumes that all travelers are identical and it therefore neglects the benefits of product differentiation using a model with two user groups we find that accounting for heterogeneity in value of time is important in evaluating constrained policies and improves the relative performance of policies that offer differential prices

avoiding some costs of inflation and crawling toward hyperinflation the case of the brazilian domestic currency substitute the pattern of a classical hyperinflation is an acute acceleration of the inflation level accompanied by rapid substitution away from domestic currency until the real plan 1 july 1994 however brazil experienced inflation levels well above 1000 a year since 1988 without entering the classical hyperinflation path two elements played key roles in differentiating the brazilian case from the classical hyperinflations indexation and the provision of a reliable domestic currency substitute i e the provision of liquidity to interest bearing assets this paper claims that the existence of this domestic currency substitute was the main source of both the inability of the brazilian central bank to fight inflation and of the unwillingness of brazilians to face the costs of such a fight the provision of the domestic currency substitute through the banking sector is modeled and the main macroeconomic consequences of this monetary regime are derived those are the lack of a nominal anchor for the price system due to the passive monetary policy and the non controllability of seigniorage unlike traditional models of hyperinflations

the marginal welfare cost of public funds theory and estimates abstract we derive a general analytic formula for the marginal welfare cost mwc of public funds without imposing restrictive assumptions on preferences or technologies the framework encompasses the various special cases previously considered and reconciles the disparities among the reported estimates of mwc unresolved differences in existing estimates are fully explained by appropriate interpretations of intended thought experiments and alternative assumptions about the elasticity of labor supply with respect to public spending further progress in measuring mwc requires empirical estimation of labor supply functions that include government spending as an explanatory variable

union wage setting and exchange rate policy the performance of an optimally managed float is compared with that of a credibly fixed exchange rate in a small open economy framework where wages are set by a monopoly union two key results emerge first a sufficient condition for the managed float to outperform a fixed rate is that the union be no less inflation averse than society second introducing an inflation target into the central bank s loss function ensures the superiority of the managed float regardless of the weight attached to inflation by the union both results reflect the sensitivity of the union mark up to the policy regime

time consistent collection of optimal seigniorage a unifying framework this paper reviews the existing literature on the time consistency problem of seigniorage collection when monetary policy is determined by optimal taxation considerations it develops a unifying accounting framework and suggests a general measure for seigniorage which encompasses the standard measures employed in the literature in addition the ex ante optimal solution to the optimal taxation problem is derived and interpreted in relation to the ramsey principle we show that the different recommendations of the public finance literature i e the friedman rule of optimal deflation moderately positive inflation and seigniorage maximizing inflation are specific solutions to the optimal taxation problem the paper continues with a formal illustration of the time consistency problem of the ex ante optimal policy and the characterization of the time consistent solution under discretion as possible solutions to the time consistency problem we consider reputational forces institutional reforms that establish central bank independence and specific ways of asset and debt management in particular it is formally shown that a modified version of the asset and debt management scheme suggested by persson persson and svensson is not only necessary but also sufficient for optimality although this did not hold in their model

marginal tax reform externalities and income distribution the paper examines welfare improving and revenue neutral directions marginal policy reforms for an economy with nonidentical individuals and an externality that has a feedback effect on the consumption of taxed goods it considers three types of policy instruments the indirect taxes the uniform poll transfer and public abatement this extends the framework set up by ahmad and stern 1984 bovenberg and de mooij 1994 and schob 1996 the theoretical model is illustrated for a specific externality namely congestion caused by peak car transport

time consistency indexation and the costs of inflation abstract we examine the effects of indexation measures on inflation costs of inflation and economic welfare within the barro gordon journal of political economy 1983 91 589 610 model the main result is that wage indexation in addition to making the phillips curve steeper also reduces the marginal cost of inflation which is inflationary

housing demand and community choice an empirical analysis abstract housing demand reflects the household s simultaneous choice of the neighborhood whether to own or rent the dwelling and the quantity of housing services demanded existing literature emphasizes the final two factors but overlooks the choice of community this paper develops an econometric model that incorporates all three components and then estimates this model using a sample of tampa florida households incorporating community choice increases the price elasticity of demand and reduces the differential between white and comparable nonwhite households the results are robust to the inclusion of permanent income and taxes

on the marginal welfare cost of taxation this paper develops a rigorous partial equilibrium analysis of the determinants of margin al welfare cost mwc of taxes on labor earnings it shows that four key parameters interact to determine the magnitude of mwc using aggregate data and plausible ranges of values for the parameters mwc can vary from under 10 percent to more than 300 percent of marginal tax revenue intermediate parameter values sugge st mwc is in the 25 50 percent range however the more extreme estimates cannot be ruled out on the basis of available evidence suggesting that mwc cannot yet be copyright 1987 by american economic association

alternative measures of the marginal cost of funds liqun liu this article reconciles the use of two different marginal cost of funds mcf measures by resorting to alternative marginal benefit measures it demonstrates how the alternative mcf measures can be properly applied to two classic problems in expenditure analysis local cost benefit project evaluation and the second best public good level question relative strengths of the two mcf approaches in addressing the two problems are identified jel h21 h43 1 introduction it is widely appreciated that the welfare cost of taxation should play a role in the normative analysis of government expenditures efficiency in government spending involves balancing the marginal benefits and marginal costs of expenditures the marginal cost of spending in part depends on the welfare costs also known as excess burdens or deadweight losses we will use the term welfare costs that result from raising the revenue that finances the expenditures to determine the marginal cost of government spending we multiply the direct resource cost of the expenditure by a term generally referred to as the marginal cost of funds mcf the mcf is the cost of raising an additional dollar of revenue which includes the direct cost the dollar of revenue actually raised plus any additional welfare costs resulting from the change in the tax structure martin feldstein emphasized the importance of mcf in a recent paper appropriately titled how big should government be feldstein 1997 he correctly stresses that the answer to this question involves comparing the benefits of incremental government spending with the mcf and concludes that the economics profession should devote more attention to informing policy makers of the importance of mcf and providing estimates of its magnitude feldstein s own estimate of mcf is 2 65 feldstein 1999 implying that the distortionary cost of raising revenue is amazingly high raising an additional dollar of revenue carries with it an efficiency loss that is more than one and a half times 1 65 as large in sharp contrast there are a number of estimates in the literature on mcf that are strikingly lower so low as to suggest that mcf should play a minor role in the evaluation of government spending programs for example stuart 1984 reports an estimate of 1 07 and ballard and fullerton 1992 suggest that i n a variety of cases mcf is less than 1 10 these disparate estimates of the magnitude of mcf are worrisome because they have contradictory implications regarding the importance of the distortionary cost of taxation but a major reason for the differences in these estimates is simply definitional fullerton 1991 and ballard and fullerton 1992 feldstein is using a definition of mcf that depends primarily on the compensated effects of taxation whereas the other estimates use a definition of mcf that depends primarily on uncompensated effects the definition based on compensated effects always yields a larger estimate of mcf 1 this raises the obvious question which definition is the appropriate one to use in the evaluation of government expenditures that is the subject of the present paper in this paper we investigate the appropriate measure of mcf for a special case that has been widely discussed in the literature when the government expenditure is to finance the provision of a public good that enters consumers utility functions in a separable fashion from private goods and leisure that the appropriate definition of mcf depends on exactly how the expenditure affects consumer utility was emphasized by wildasin 1984 and ballard and fullerton 1992 recent papers that help clarify the role of the separability assumption include mayshar 1991 snow and warren 1996 and ahmed and croushore 1996 furthermore we restrict our attention to the case in which the public good is financed by a tax on wage income in this case much of the literature on mcf emphasizes that the definition of mcf should be based on the uncompensated wage elasticity of labor supply in contrast to feldstein s measure

fiscal restraints and voter welfare this paper explores the logic of fiscal restraints in a political agency model with both moral hazard and adverse selection the role of the political process is both to discipline incumbents who may act against the public interest and to sort in those politicians who are most likely act in voters interests we use the model to examine the optimality of inefficient taxation limits on the size of government increasing transparency and yardstick competition some conclusions are surprising for example we show that some forms of fiscal restraint can only be desirable when incumbents are sufficiently likely to be benevolent

the indexation of wages and bonds in brazil this paper analyses the dynamic relationship between the degrees of indexation of wages and public bonds in brazil a simple model is constructed to show that both degrees of indexation are determined simultaneously we apply cointegration techniques and estimate error correction representations to assess the temporal causality between them our results provide empirical support for the existence of simultaneity in the degrees of indexation in brazil in the period 1980 93

goods diversion and repressed inflation notes on the political economy of price liberalization most analyses of parallel markets in centrally planned systems focus on queue rationing as the mechanism whereby state sector goods become available for second economy resale this article takes into account employee diversion of goods as a second channel through which merchandise can move to private markets diversion of goods tends to temper the adverse distributional consequences of price liberalization as repressed inflation increases more goods are diverted out of the state sector and the likelihood that an individual will be made worse off by a transition of free prices is diminished

deadweight costs and the size of government abstract we provide a model for analyzing effects of the tax system and spending programs on the determination of government spending and taxpayer welfare an improvement in the efficiency of either taxes or spending would reduce political pressure for suppressing the growth of government and thereby increase total tax revenue and spending we demonstrate the similarity of the political responses to revenue shocks spending shocks changes in tax efficiency and changes in spending program efficiency empirical analysis of oil shocks intergovernmental grants and other autonomous changes in taxes or spending indicates that cause and effect is not only from spending to tax structures

estimating the welfare effect of congestion taxes the critical importance of other distortions within the transport system abstract this paper extends the first best analysis of peak period congestion pricing to account for interactions with other distortions within the transport system including congestion on unpriced routes accident and pollution externalities suboptimal transit pricing and gasoline taxes we illustrate how the presence of each of these distortions changes the welfare effect of a congestion tax over a wide range of parameter scenarios in all cases the welfare changes are potentially significant implying that these distortions are important to consider in an economic evaluation of congestion taxes

america s historical experience with low inflation the inflation of the 1970s was a marked deviation from america s typical peacetime historical pattern as a hard money country we should expect america to continue to be a hard money low inflation country in the future at least in peacetime the low rate of future inflation that we thus forecast changes the balance of macroeconomic risks and opportunities the risk of debt deflation mediated recessions is somewhat higher because a low trend rate of goods and services price index inflation somewhat increases the chances of deflation but it does not raise such risks as much as one might think the failure of the fisher effect to hold empirically means that a low inflation era will in all likelihood be a high real interest rate era but such high real interest rates do not appear to significantly discourage investment or growth

economists views about parameters values and policies survey results in labor and public economics specialists in labor economics and public economics at 40 leading research universities provided opinions of policy proposals quantitative best estimates and 95 percent confidence intervals for economic parameters and answers to values questions regarding income redistribution efficiency versus equity and individual versus social responsibility their positions on policy are more closely related to their values than to their estimates of relevant economic parameters average best estimates of the economic parameters agree well with the relevant literature but individual best estimates are usually widely dispersed the individual 95 percent confidence intervals are much narrower than the substantial cross respondent variation in estimates would warrant

optimal taxes and the structure of preferences if optimal tax theory is to be the basis for calculating tax rates a close understanding is required of the relationship between the structure of preferences and the configuration of optimal tax rates otherwise hypotheses chosen by the econometrician for practical convenience may completely determine the results independently of measurement this paper explores the relationship between various types of separability particularly weak and implicit separability and optimal tax rates in the various models discussed in the literature the use of distance functions and the antonelli matrix provides a significant unification of previously disparate results in the final analysis optimal tax theory should be the basis for actual calculation of tax rates although recently there have been great advances in theoretical results and in our understanding of their meaning we are still some way from a working knowledge of whether uniform commodity taxes are in practice optimal or if not which commodities should be discriminated against present theoretical formulae do not yield clear cut results except in special cases and it has recently become clear that optimal rates depend crucially on the detailed structure of consumer preferences for example atkinson and stiglitz 3 show that with an optimal nonlinear income tax discriminatory commodity taxes are only necessary to the extent that individual commodities are not weakly separable from leisure more recently deaton 6 has shown that a similar result holds for what is perhaps the most interesting of the standard models that where there are many consumers and only a linear income tax and proportional commodity taxes are allowed in this case separability between goods and leisure together with linear engel curves for goods removes the need for differential commodity taxation in consequence nothing can be learned about commodity taxes from consumer demand studies in which commodity demands are explained conditionally on total expenditure and commodity prices and which assume linear engel curves all such studies require separability from leisure as a maintained hypothesis and so are consistent with uniform commodity taxation these results suggest that the prospects for meaningful empirical calculations of tax rates are bleak econometricians estimating commodity demand and labor supply equations make generous use of separability assumptions to enable estimation at all in consequence it is likely that empirically calculated tax rates based on econometric estimates of parameters will be determined in structure not by the measurements actually made but by arbitrary untested and even unconscious hypotheses chosen by the econometrician for practical convenience to remedy this situation and as a prelude to fruitful empirical work it is necessary to have a more explicit understanding of how preference structure affects optimal tax rates such is the object of this paper three different

the non tax wedge abstract this paper argues that there are a large number of non tax phenomena that have the effect of reducing input prices below marginal value products just as do taxes on income it is shown that the presence of the non tax wedge between the marginal value product of labor and the net wage is highly significant for the analysis of the total and marginal welfare costs of taxes similarly the presence of the tax wedge is significant for the analysis of the welfare effects of the non tax phenomena welfare costs are substantially higher when appropriate account is taken of tax and non tax wedges that both distort supply decisions

optimal contract length in a reputational model of monetary policy we develop a reputational model of monetary policy with endogenous contract length in choosing contract length private sector agents trade off recontracting costs against the expected costs resulting from trading under contracts based on incorrect inflation expectations however due to an externality the private and socially optimal contract lengths differ when selecting individual contract length private agents do not consider the effect of contract length on the surprise inflation output trade off in a reputational model of monetary policy this results in an excessive equilibrium inflation rate the socially optimal outcome may be achieved by public policies that reduce recontracting costs

funding transportation spending in metropolitan washington dc the costs of alternative revenue sources abstract this paper develops and implements an analytical framework for estimating the efficiency costs of raising additional revenue from taxes on labor property gasoline peak road use and higher transit fares for the washington dc area the model incorporates driving externalities and interactions between the different policies an economic case can be made for using congestion taxes and possibly gasoline and property taxes to raise extra revenue though it should be qualified for example the inelastic demand for driving limits the congestion benefits per dollar of revenue raised and these taxes have adverse employment effects in the same way that a tax on labor income does

tax avoidance and the deadweight loss of the income tax traditional analyses of the income tax greatly underestimate deadweight losses by ignoring its effect on forms of compensation and patterns of consumption the full deadweight loss is easily calculated using the compensated elasticity of taxable income to changes in tax rates because leisure excludable income and deductible consumption are a hicksian composite good microeconomic estimates imply a deadweight loss of as much as 30 of revenue or more than ten times harberger s classic 1964 estimate the relative deadweight loss caused by increasing existing tax rates is substantially greater and may exceed 2 per 1 of revenue

theory and estimation in the economics of housing demand the main purpose of this paper is to review recent theoretical and empirical developments in the economics of housing demand in particular we ask what is known concerning the permanent income elasticity of housing demand vis a vis the current or measured income elasticity what is known concerning price elasticities what is the appropriate functional form for housing demand equations what is the role of demographic variables what is known concerning dynamic aspects of housing demand what appear to be the major sources of bias in existing estimates of demand equations

export subsidies and countervailing tariffs this paper analyses how retaliation affects the profit shifting argument for export subsidies at the first stage the foreign country sets its export subsidy and then at the second stage the domestic country sets its tariff and or production subsidy it is shown that if the domestic country pursues an optimal trade policy then it will always gain from a foreign export subsidy when the domestic country uses a tariff and a production subsidy the optimal foreign policy is an export subsidy but if the domestic country only uses a tariff then an export tax is usually the optimal policy

marginal welfare cost calculations differential analysis vs balanced budget analysis abstract in a differential analysis tax revenue collections are held constant in a balanced budget analysis the spending level is changed and the level of distortionary taxation is changed correspondingly here income effects are important and efficiency calculations depend chiefly on uncompensated elasticities unless government exhaustive expenditure is assumed to substitute closely for cash a small scale computational general equilibrium model is constructed and differential and balanced budget experiments are performed results show that marginal welfare costs calculated from balanced budget experiments can be negative when labor supply functions are backward bending interactions among parameter values and efficiency costs are explored

revenue recycling and the welfare effects of road pricing the authors explore the interaction between taxes on work related traffic congestion and preexisting distortionary taxes in the labor market a congestion tax raises the overall costs of commuting to work and discourages labor force participation at the margin when revenues are returned in lump sum transfers the resulting efficiency loss in the labor market can be larger that the pigouvian efficiency gains from internalizing the congestion externality by contrast if congestion tax revenues are used to reduce labor taxes the net impact on the labor supply is positive and the efficiency gain in the labor market can raise the overall welfare gains of the congestion tax by as much as 100 percent recycling congestion tax revenues in public transit subsidies produces a positive but smaller impact on the labor supply in short the authors results indicate that the presence of preexisting tax distortions and the form of revenue recycling can crucially affect the size and possibly even the sign of the welfare effect of road pricing schemes the efficiency gains from recycling congestion tax revenues in other tax reductions can amount to several times the pigouvian welfare gains from congestion reduction

revenue raising vs other approaches to environmental protection the critical significance of pre existing tax distortions using analytical and numerical general equilibrium models we show that preexisting factor taxes produce a tax interaction effect that increases the costs of pollution taxes and quotas under policies that raise revenue and recycle it through cuts in marginal factor tax rates this effect is partially offset by a revenue recycling effect grandfathered pollution quotas such as those used under the 1990 clean air act amendments to regulate electric utilities so2 emissions do not benefit from this offset preexisting taxes raise this regulation s cost by over 70 more than half of this additional cost could be avoided by auctioning quotas and exploiting the revenue recycling effect

fiscal inconsistencies and high inflation abstract this paper presents a simple model of steady state inflationary financing the discrepancy between the target level of spending and a fixed taxing capacity indicates the degree of fiscal pressures this variable need not be monotonically related to the measured deficit since actual expenditures are endogenous large fiscal inconsistencies generate unique steady states located on the bad side of the inflation tax laffer curve there high inflation may coexist with low observed deficits and the revenue constraint results in repressed spending such situations correspond qualitatively with the loss of control over fiscal policies typical of high inflation economies

the environmental impact of highway congestion pricing abstract this article simulates the effects of congestion pricing on emissions of carbon monoxide nitrogen oxide and hydrocarbons for an actual metropolitan highway network traffic is assigned to the network assuming elastic travel demand and endogenous route selection to minimize private or social travel costs simulations price all or part of the network delaware s household travel demand and highway traffic count data calibrate the simulations epa s mobile 5a model predicts that vehicle emissions decrease as much as 10 in aggregate and 30 in highly congested areas benefits from reduced emissions are 15 30 of those from reduced congestion