economic deregulation days of reckoning for microeconomists economic deregulation of american industry is one of the most important experiments in economic policy of our time 1 in 1977 17 percent of u s gnp was produced by fully regulated industries 2 by 1988 following ten years of partial and complete economic deregulation of large parts of the transportation communications energy and financial industries that total had been cut significantly to 6 6 percent of gnp 3 the political forces behind the decision to change the market conditions under which roughly 600 billion of u s output is produced were strong and varied but according to political scientists martha derthick and paul quirk 1985 p 36 deregulation would never have occurred if economists especially microeconomists had not generally supported it through their research 4 in retrospect it is fair to ask were microeconomists able to develop a theoretical and empirical framework to explain regulation and its effects and to form predictions of deregulation s effects were they able to predict the actual effects of deregulation this paper surveys the evidence to address these questions and of

environmental regulation and u s economic growth in this article we quantify the costs of pollution controls by reporting the results of simulations of the growth of the u s economy with and without regulation for this purpose we have constructed a detailed model of the economy that includes the determinants of long term growth we have also analyzed the interaction between industries in order to capture the full repercussions of environmental regulations however we have not attempted to assess the benefits resulting from a cleaner environment we find that pollution abatement has emerged as a major claimant on the resources of the u s economy the cost of emission controls is more than 10 of the total cost of government purchases of goods and services

earnings rents and competition in the airline labor market transformation of the airline labor market continues long after deregulation airline wages changed little immediately following deregulation implying either the absence of regulatory rents or maintenance of product market power and union strength analysis for 1973 1997 however indicates that prior to recent gains the relative earnings of air transport workers decreased markedly during the latter half of the 1980s and early 1990s some of the earnings advantage of airline workers represents returns to occupational skills and worker specific quality labor rents are attributable largely to union bargaining power which in turn is constrained by the financial health of carriers

what drives deregulation economics and politics of the relaxation of bank branching restrictions this paper investigates private interest public interest and political institutional theories of regulatory change to analyze state level deregulation of bank branching restrictions using a hazard model we find that interest group factors related to the relative strength of potential winners large banks and small bank dependent firms and losers small banks and the rival insurance firms can explain the timing of branching deregulation across states during the last quarter century the same factors also explain congressional voting on interstate branching deregulation while we find some support for each theory the private interest approach provides the most compelling overall explanation of our results

welfare loss redistribution effect and restriction of output due to monopoly in banking abstract although several studies have estimated the welfare loss due to monopoly for manufacturing no such estimate has been made for banking this study seeks to fill that gap by estimating the deadweight welfare loss the redistribution effect total monopoly profits and restriction of output due to monopoly in banking for 1978 the analysis is based on 6 500 banks and over 2 000 markets results indicate that the deadweight welfare loss in banking is very small however the redistribution effect total monopoly profits and restriction of output in banking is quite large

tracking poverty over time in the absence of comparable consumption data following the endorsement by the international community of the millennium development goals mdg there has been an increasing demand for practical methods for steadily tracking poverty an economically intuitive and inexpensive methodology is explored for doing so in the absence of regular comparable data on household consumption the minimum data requirements for this methodology are the availability of a household budget survey and a series of surveys with a comparable set of asset data also contained in the budget survey this method is illustrated using a series of demographic and health surveys for kenya

electoral outcomes with probabilistic voting and nash social welfare maxima abstract this paper provides unexpected support to nash s view of how bargaining determines the social choice we first present a spatial model of electoral competition with probabilistic voting and a very close relation between voters preferences and their choice probabilities the outcome of the electoral competition game is then shown to be precisely the social alternative that maximizes a nash type social welfare function theorem 1 this electoral outcome is also interpreted as a unanimity likelihood maximum corollary 1 within our framework existence and uniqueness of such an outcome are guaranteed corollaries 2 and 3

privatization deregulation and capital accumulation author affiliation gerhard glomm department of economics indiana university wylie hall room 105 bloomington in 47405 usa gglomm indiana edufabio mendez department of economics walton college of business room 402 university of arkansas fayetteville ar 72701 usa fmendez uark edu corresponding author acknowledgment we are grateful to b ravikumar rowena pecchenino jeffrey wooldridge felix rioja stefan krause and seminar participants from the economics department at emory university for useful observations we are also grateful to cristian opazo and javier reyes for their assistance and to the editor and two anonymous referees for helpful comments 1 introductionsince the early 1980s many countries have privatized and deregulated intermediate goods industries such as gas electricity or telecommunications that had traditionally been run by public monopolies the european union eu for example has adopted aggressive policies toward the elimination of monopolies in the telecommunication market and conducted a general privatization program whose sales receipts amounted to more than 3 of gdp between 1985 and 1995 constantinou and lagoudakis 1996 parker 1998 in other regions of the world countries like australia chile brazil argentina and the united states have implemented similar policies vickers and yarrow 1991 winston 1993 van der vlies 1996 while there is a large literature studying the microeconomic effects of privatization and deregulation the long run macroeconomic effects of such types of reforms have been subject to relatively less scrutiny in this paper we use a model of capital accumulation in order to investigate the long run effects of privatization and deregulation this paper complements a small literature that includes parente and prescott 1999 2000 schmitz 2001 and herrendorf and teixeira 2004 parente and prescott 1999 2000 and herrendorf and teixeira 2004 study the impact of monopoly rights on long run levels of income and find that the effect is large the latter authors find for example that monopoly rights can reduce aggregate income in the long run by a factor of seven schmitz 2001 uses a two sector model to calculate the impact of government production of investment goods on long run levels of labor productivity he finds that government production can lower labor productivity levels in the long run by about 30 our approach differs from herrendorf and teixeira 2004 who infer the extent of monopoly power from differentials in the relative prices of nontradeables instead we take the approach that monopoly power is likely to arise and exist in the public production of intermediate goods such as public utilities or telecommunication and that the size of these sectors relative to the rest of the economy can be directly estimated see world bank 1995 our approach also differs from schmitz 2001 in a fundamental way because he abstracts completely from the issue of monopoly rights in his model the only difference between the public and private production is that the government is endowed with a less productive technology than the private sector the long run income gains from privatization and deregulation in our paper are similar in magnitude to those found in schmitz 2001 in our base case calculation the long run income gain of changing from a public sector monopoly to a competitive market with private firms is 18 these welfare gains can be larger when there has been relatively low governmental investment in the public sector capital and when the elasticity of substitution between the intermediate input and physical capital is small like schmitz 2001 we view our results as less pertinent for rich economies like the united states where public sector involvement in intermediate good production is relatively small rather we view the results of our model as being applicable mostly to least developed countries ldcs such as egypt where governments typically play a large role in intermediate goods production

effectiveness of electoral systems for reducing government corruption a game theoretic analysis abstract a theoretical model is developed for predicting the relative effectiveness of different electoral systems for reducing government corruption we consider voting games in which parties with known corruption levels and known positions on a major policy question compete for legislative seats we find that approval voting and proportional representation are fully effective in the sense that all equilibria exclude corrupt parties from legislative seats plurality voting is partly effective in the sense that there always exist some equilibria that exclude corrupt parties borda voting is ineffective because for some political situations no equilibria can guarantee the exclusion of corrupt parties journal of economic literature classification number d72

privatization in latin america what does the evidence say privatization is under attack criticisms run from corrupt deals to abuse of market power and social welfare losses we evaluate the empirical record on privatization relying on recent comprehensive studies from latin america the paper presents four main results first the increased profitability of privatized firms is not explained by sample selection biases second in the quest to identify the sources of increased profitability after privatization we find little evidence that validates concerns of generalized market power abuses exploitation of workers and lack of fiscal benefits third the manner in which privatization is carried out matters transparency and homogeneity in procedures speed and limited restructuring prior to privatization lead to better outcomes and less room for corruption and discretion finally privatization s success is enhanced by two complementary policies deregulation or reregulation of industries previously shielded from competitive forces and an effective corporate governance framework that facilitates privatized firms access to capital at lower cost overall the empirical record shows that privatization leads to increased profitability and productivity firm restructuring fiscal benefits output growth and even quality improvements most cases of privatization failure can be linked to poor contract design opaque processes with heavy state involvement lack of reregulation and a poor corporate governance framework

effects of pollution control on industry productivity a factor demand approach four major manufacturing industries are examined the abatement effect on capital and labor productivity are determined from parameters of a system of factor demand equations which allow for disequilibrium in factor markets the system is estimated for each industry with annual time series data from 1960 to 1980 abatement requirements were found to retard both average capital productivity and average labor productivity in three of the four industries paper chemicals and primary metals for several industries in which factor productivity was slower after 1973 environmental controls accounted for a significant proportion of that slow down

is inequality harmful for growth comment endogenous growth models have reignited interest in institutional and path dependencies in the economic growth process one reason for the interest in endogenous growth models is that they may explain why countries consistently grow at different rates in this vein it has been recently proposed that greater economic inequality reduces future economic growth an important paper in this literature is by torsten persson and guido tabellini 1994 who will be referred to as pt pt s model shows why it is reasonable to expect a negative relationship between inequality and future economic growth moreover their empirical evidence is consistent with their contention if pt s findings are robust to other data sets there would be important policy implications for example they imply that policy makers should not only be concerned with the distributional implications of government policies for political and social reasons but also because income distribution has long run effects on economic growth this indicates that greater u s income inequality since the early 1970 s may have resulted in lower subsequent economic growth however pt s results are somewhat fragile to various specifications suggesting that they should be replicated with different data sets and over different time periods pt p 617 with these implications in mind this study employs data from a panel of u s states to further explore the relationship between economic growth and income inequality in what follows section i summarizes pt s study and discusses how this comment extends their findings the empirical implementation and results in section ii directly examine the link between overall income inequality and growth section iii expands the analysis to alternative measures of income distribution and government policy one emphasis in section iii is the distinction between how the overall income distribution especially at the tails influences economic growth from how the relative well being of the median voter affects economic growth section iv provides some concluding discussion

environmental regulations and productivity growth the case of fossil fueled electric power generation this paper measures and analyzes the effect of sulfur dioxide emission restrictions on the rate of productivity growth in the electric power industry over the 1973 79 business cycle a firm specific measure of regulatory intensity is developed which depends on the severity of the emission standard the extent of enforcement and the unconstrained emission rate relevant to each utility the results indicate that emission regulations result in significantly higher generating costs primarily from the increased use of low sulfur fuels the average rate of productivity growth was reduced by 0 59 percentage points per year for constrained utilities

towards micropolitical foundations of public finance abstract observed fiscal policy reflects the incentives embedded in political institutions in this paper we illustrate the effects of two general institutional features separation of powers which is common in presidential congressional political systems and legislative cohesion which is typical of parliamentary systems compared to a simple legislative game separation of powers brings about a smaller size of government and lower waste legislative cohesion induces a more equal distribution but more waste and higher taxes than separation of powers

impact of environmental regulations on trade in the main eu countries conflict or synergy in an increasingly integrated world with declining trade barriers environmental regulations can have a decisive role in shaping countries comparative advantages the conventional wisdom about environmental protection is that it comes at an additional cost on firms imposed by the government which may erode their global competitiveness however this paradigm has been challenged by some analysts in particular porter 1991 and porter and van der linde 1995 argue that pollution is often associated with a waste of resources and that more stringent environmental policies can stimulate innovations that may over compensate for the costs of complying with these policies this is known as the porter hypothesis while there is a broad empirical literature on the impact of trade on environment the empirical literature on the impact of environmental regulations on trade flows is relatively scarce very heterogeneous and presents mixed results the innovative feature of this paper is its attempts to estimate in a gravity setting augmented with a proxi of environmental stringency the impact of three major multilateral environmental agreements meas on 15 eu countries bilateral exports according to our estimates in the period 1988 2008 to be member of meas had a positive average impact on eu15 bilateral exports this evidence can be partly explained by a possible trade diversion effect with respect to countries that did not sign meas and a corresponding trade creation effect among members of the environmental agreements furthermore evidence coming from interaction effects estimates seems to show that for exporting countries having signed the unfccc and the montreal agreements partly mitigates by the amount of the estimated coefficient the negative impact of having a relatively more stringent environmental regulation on bilateral trade this result could have important policy implications for the future international trade environmental negotiations

signaling and the design of delegated management contracts for public utilities this article analyzes the shape of contracts between local governments and the contractors they hire to run public facilities on their behalf governments are privately informed about the quality of the facility while risk neutral contractors undertake a non verifiable operating eort the design of the contract signals the quality of the facility in such a way that the better this quality the greater the share of operating risk kept by the government this feature reduces the agent s marginal incentives creating a trade o between signaling and moral hazard we provide extensions of our framework in several directions allowing for risk aversion on the agent s side double moral hazard and political delegation the model is supported by some stylized facts from the water industry

the impact of pollution abatement investment on productivity change anempirical comparison of the u s germany and canada since environmental quality became an important focus of government regulations in most industrialized countries in the early 1970s many researchers have assessed the impact of these regulations on economic performance for example leontief and ford 11 and pasurka 15 investigated the impact that environmental protection costs had on prices in the u s walter 24 calculated the effect of pollution abatement expenditures on u s trade and robinson 19 measured the distributional impact of the burden of industrial pollution abatement a related issue involves the productivity consequences of environmental regulations in this paper we address this issue by considering the impact of pollution abatement investment on productivity growth

aviation policy past and present for 25 years airline deregulation has been a symbol of the trend toward less expansive government the move from economic regulation to deregulation has delivered on its efficiency promises and there have been significant benefits to consumers in terms of lower prices and more convenient schedules however airline competition especially at hub airports remains imperfect the nature of these imperfections is explained better by models of oligopolistic behavior than by the contestability theory paradoxically for this industry the terrorist attack of september 11 2001 has ushered in an expanded role of government in aviation policy this expanded role does not reinstate government intervention in airline economic decisions rather it provides financial stabilization of the industry in the short run and long term structural change in aviation security

no condition is permanent middle class in nigeria in the last decade the economic debate on existence and definition of the middle class has become particularly lively in many developing countries despite this growing interest the identification of the middle class group in these countries remains quite challenging building on a recently developed framework to define the middle class this paper tries to estimate the nigerian middle class size in a rigorous quantitative manner by exploiting publicly available panel data the expenditure associated to a 10 percent probability of falling into poverty is estimated and this is used as the middle class threshold for nigeria the threshold expenditure for the middle class in nigeria is found to be 378 39 naira per capita per day 2010 ppp relying on this threshold and through survey to survey imputation the size of nigeria s middle class in 2003 is also estimated the results show that there has been considerable improvement on the size of the middle class and poverty reduction between 2003 and 2013 poverty decreased between 2003 and 2013 from 45 to 33 percent while the middle class increased from 13 percent to 19 percent nevertheless the results still paint a heterogeneous picture of poverty and the middle class in nigeria where the largest portion of the population although above the poverty threshold continues to live with average or high vulnerability to poverty

applied welfare economics with discrete choice models economists have been paying increasing attention to the study of situations in which consumers face a discrete rather than a continuous set of choices such models are potentially very important in evaluating the impact of government programs upon consumer welfare but very little has been said in general regarding the tools of applied welfare economics indiscrete choice situations this paper shows how the conventional methods of applied welfare economics can be modified to handle such cases it focuses on the computation of the excess burden of taxation and the evaluation of quality change the results are applied to stochastic utility models including the popular cases of probit and logit analysis throughout the emphasis is on providing rigorous guidelines for carrying out applied work this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the size and scope of government comparative politics with rational politicians we try to demonstrate how economists may engage in research on comparative politics relating the size and composition of government spending to the political system a downsian model of electoral competition and forward looking voting indicates that majoritarian as opposed to proportional elections increase competition between parties by focusing it into some key marginal districts this leads to less public goods less rents for politicians more redistribution and larger government a model of legislative bargaining and backward looking voting indicates that presidential as opposed to parliamentary regimes increase competition between both politicians and voters this leads to less public goods less rents for politicians less redistribution and smaller government we confront these predictions with cross country data from around 1990 controlling for economic and social determinants of government spending we nd strong and robust support for the prediction that the size of government is smaller under presidential regimes and weaker support for the prediction that majoritarian elections are associated with less public goods

winners and losers from the privatization and regulation of utilities lessons from a general equilibrium model of argentina a computable general equilibrium cqe model is used to estimate the macroeconomic and distributional effects of the privatization and regulation of utilities in argentina begun in 1989 based on data available after the privatization that indicate different kinds of efficiency gains in electricity gas water and telecommunications both the privatization and effective regulation are estimated to yield significant macroeconomic benefits gains from the privatization accrue mainly to high income classes while gains from the effective regulation of newly privatized utilities accrue mainly to low income classes computable general equilibrium cge estimates of overall employment effects suggest that privatization was not a major contributor to the dramatic rise in unemployment in argentina between 1993 and 1995 this rise was more likely due to the tequila effect of an interest rate shock

separability test for the electricity supply industry this paper examines the vertical integration issue of the electricity industry this industry is typically vertically integrated and heavily regulated the paper investigates the potential technological efficiency loss due to the vertical disintegration using the translog production function three separability hypotheses using the allen uzawa elasticity of substitution are tested to examine the feasibility of various degrees of disintegration of the current industry structure all three separability hypotheses are rejected and the cost of disintegration is estimated further estimates indicate that the electricity industry appears to have exhausted economies of scale unlike other deregulated industries disintegration of the electricity industry will entail technological efficiency loss

balanced budget redistribution as the outcome of political competition this paper models balanced budget redistribution between socio economic groups as the outcome of electoral competition between two political parties equilibrium is unique in the present model and a sufficient condition for existence is given requiring that there be enough stochastic heterogeneity with respect to party preferences in the electorate the validity of hotelling s principle of minimum differentiation and of director s law are examined under alternative hypotheses concerning administrative costs of redistributions and voter s possibilities both of abstaining from voting and of becoming campaign activists for one of the parties the policy strategy of expected plurality maximization is contrasted with the strategy of maximizing the probability of gaining a plurality incomes are fixed and known so lump sum taxation is feasible however constraints on tax transfer differentiation between individuals are permitted in the analysis

infrastructure development and regulatory reform in sub saharan africa the case of air transport this technical paper analyses the main policy issues raised by regulatory reform in air transport in sub saharan africa its basic premise is that improving air infrastructure is of paramount importance for the region as it tries to integrate more thoroughly into the world economy on the basis of the experience of oecd countries with privatisation liberalisation and regulatory design the author analyses progress being made in sub saharan africa and identifies three important case studies the restructuring of the regional airline of francophone western africa the sell off of the state owned airline of kenya and the overall reform process in south africa by far the largest market in the sub continent the analysis highlights the importance of regional dynamics in the upgrading of the air transport industry in developing and emerging areas sub saharan africa has made smaller progress in this respect than for instance central america as the start of the millenium round and ce document analyse les principales questions de politique economique soulevees par la reforme de la reglementation du transport aerien en afrique subsaharienne il montre que l amelioration de l infrastructure du transport aerien constitue un enjeu fondamental dans les efforts de la region pour s integrer devantage dans l economie mondiale sur la base des experiences des pays de l ocde dans les domaines de la privatisation de la liberalisation et de la reglementation l auteur analyse les progres realises en afrique subsaharienne et identifie trois etudes de cas particulierement importantes la restructuration de la compagnie aerienne regionale de l afrique de l ouest francophone la vente de la compagnie aerienne publique du kenya et le processus plus general de reformes en afrique du sud de loin le plus grand marche du continent l analyse met en lumiere l importance des dynamiques regionales pour renforcer l industrie du transport aerien dans les pays emergents et en

the economics and politics of regulation this article provides a critical survey of the literature on the economics and politics of regulation after some conceptual clarifications the article surveys the evolution of perspectives on regulation during the post second world war period emphasizing especially the interactions between intellectual changes and real world economic and political developments it then looks at some themes that are neglected in the current literature the inevitability of regulation the need to create and not simply regulate markets distributional issues dynamic considerations and the politics of regulation and suggests that incorporating these themes more closely into the discussion will improve our understanding in this area copyright 1997 by oxford university press

imperfect insurance and differing propensities to consume across households abstract this paper extends previous tests of consumption insurance by splitting the sample to examine whether the marginal propensity to consume mpc out of idiosyncratic income shocks is larger for low wealth households than it is for high wealth households using data from the psid i find 1 the mpc of low wealth households is higher than that of high wealth households there are indications that both precautionary savings behavior and liquidity constraints contribute to this difference 2 splitting the data using two different measures of wealth indicates that households perceive housing equity as illiquid 3 when low wealth households are split into two subgroups the mpc of the very low wealth group is smaller reflecting the insurance aspects of means tested safety net programs

reimbursing health plans and health providers efficiency in production versus selection the tradeoff between an insurer s or medical provider s incentives to select good risks and to produce efficiently is governed by the supply price analog to the demand price tradeoff between moral hazard and risk aversion under a variety of models the optimum supply price is a mixture of capitation and fee for service payments empirical literature shows that pure capitation payment leaves strong incentives for selection that are acted upon the presence of contracting costs in a rothschild stiglitz model means a limited pooling equilibrium can exist and that poor risks will not be at their preferred outcome

the developing world s bulging but vulnerable middle class summary western notions of the middle class are of little obvious relevance to developing countries instead the middle class is identified here as those living above the median poverty line of developing countries even if still poor by rich country standards over 1990 2005 economic growth and global distributional shifts allowed an extra 1 2 billion people to join the developing world s middle class four fifths came from asia and half from china many of those in this new middle class remain fairly close to poverty only 100 million of the 1 2 billion would not be considered poor in any developing county economic growth typically came with an expanding middle class

the influence of the economic approaches to regulation on banking regulations a short history of banking regulations this article highlights the theoretical foundations of the regulations at work in the banking sector and examines their responsibility in the onset of the 2007 2008 financial crisis drawing a parallel between the main changes in banking regulations since the 1960s and the evolutions in the economic analyses of regulation over the same period it shows that the shift from the public interest theory of regulation that prevailed until the late 1960s towards the private interest theory of regulation accounts for the substitution of micro prudential regulations for macro prudential ones and explains a paradigmatic change in the conception of the regulatory instruments of the banking authorities it also shows that although the outcome of several factors the 2007 2008 crisis was also a consequence of the fact that the economic analysis of banking regulations supported micro prudential regulations that fail to take the global features and impact of banking activities into account and have proved unable to recommend effective solutions in a context of crisis

incumbent performance and electoral control in the pure theory of electoral competition citizens compare the platforms of the candidates and vote for the one whose platform is preferred candidate strategies are identified with promises about future performance in office models of this sort have been developed in both static mckelvey 1975 and dynamic kramer 1977 i settings and all appear to have the property that if the set of alternatives is large enough in some sense equilibrium platforms rarely exist but these models have another feature that is quite as disturbing as their instability in the static setting discussed by mckelvey little attention is paid to the possibility that once in office the politician s preferences may diverge from those of his constituents and that he may therefore choose policies at variance from his platform instead it is simply assumed that promises will be kept whether or not such behavior is congruent with the interest of the officeholder it is sometimes argued that an enforcement mechanism may exist to discipline politicians for failing to keep promises but without a specification of the mechanism it is not obvious that it would be in the interests of the

market opening regulation and growth in europe deregulation a political economy analysis lack of urgency explains why continental europe trails in the deregulation process yet there are lessons to be learnt from deregulation elsewhere this paper reviews the situation and focuses on the political preconditions for successful deregulation it finds a clear negative relationship between regulation and economic performance it characterizes european countries by the degree of regulation of labour and product markets and finds that the latter seems to be more important for economic performance finally it notes the importance of a proper management of the deregulation effort which may include some re regulation deregulation is more likely to succeed the more transparent the economic benefits and the more clearly stated the objectives and the time schedule kees koedijk and jeroen kremers

impacts of trade and the environment on clustered multilateral environmental agreements many countries align their environmental policy and environmental regulation by way of multilateral environmental agreements meas previous work in economics provided insights in the economic and political determinants of meas at large this paper distinguishes meas by the main issues covered and classifies them in five clusters biodiversity atmosphere land chemicals and hazardous wastes and seas then the role of environmental economic and political factors and of dynamic and cross cluster effects is studied at the level of mea clusters two findings stand out from this empirical analysis first economic size and multilateral trade liberalisation of countries are found to be the most important drivers of mea participation across all clusters second adjustment costs turn out to deter and in particular cross cluster spillovers turn out to stimulate mea participation across countries and clusters

regulation and investment use newly assembled data on regulation in several sectors of many oecd countries to provide evidence that regulatory reform of product markets is associated with an increase in investment a component of reform that plays a very important role is entry liberalization but privatization also has a substantial effect on investment sensitivity analysis suggests that our results are robust jel e22 l5

winners and losers from the privatization and regulation of utilities a computable general equilibrium cqe model is used to estimate the macroeconomic and distributional effects of the privatization and regulation of utilities in argentina begun in 1989 based on data available after the privatization that indicate different kinds of efficiency gains in electricity gas water and telecommunications both the privatization and effective regulation are estimated to yield significant macroeconomic benefits gains from the privatization accrue mainly to high income classes while gains from the effective regulation of newly privatized utilities accrue mainly to lowincome classes cge estimates of overall employment effects suggest that privatization was not a major contributor to the dramatic rise in unemployment in argentina between 1993 and 1995 this rise was more likely due to the tequila effect of an interest rate shock

facilities competition and local network investment theory evidence and policy implications a new approach has emerged in the u s and elsewhere in the world for promoting investment in local communications networks competition especially facilitiesbased entry has become a principal means to encourage the efficient amount and timing of investment in local exchange infrastructure and adoption of advanced technologies despite the popularity of open entry policies the logic underlying these policies has never been worked through nevertheless we find preliminary and incidental studies that support the claim that facilities based entry stimulates investment by both incumbents and entrants the message for policy makers is first to remove artificial restrictions on facilities based entry and on incumbent investment both as a response to competition and in advance of entry and second to take account of the possibility of a virtuous cycle of investment deriving from incumbent entrant interaction these measures promise to supplement the ordinary benefits of facilities competition that will aid in building the next generation advanced communications network

railroad deregulation pricing reforms shipper responses and the effects on labor the staggers rail act of 1980 relaxed restrictions on pricing and eased abandonment procedures in the railroad industry although the act made virtually no reference to labor its impact on labor has been dramatic the long term contraction of industry employment accelerated quite sharply after 1980 wages increased until 1985 then declined substantially the authors whose empirical analysis uses data on aggregate rail employment for the years 1963 90 current population survey data for 1973 88 and evidence from collective bargaining agreements for 1971 90 argue that pricing adjustments under the staggers act led to changes in shipper behavior which in turn allowed for large declines in the derived demand for rail labor despite increasing output and the observed pattern of wage change followed from the realization of the act s eventual effects on employment

are the crude oil markets becoming weakly efficient over time a test for time varying long range dependence in prices and volatility this paper analyzes the efficiency of crude oil markets brent and west texas intermediate by means of estimating the fractal structure of these time series we test for time varying degrees of long range dependence using the rescaled range hurst analysis and find evidence that this market has become more efficient over time these results are robust for controlling for short term autocorrelation by means of a shuffling procedure

finessing the unintended outcomes of price cap adjustments an electric utility multi product perspective performance based regulation for electric utilities is now a foreseeable future reality in the united states and in many cases some form of a price cap is likely to be its modus operandi viewing electricity in a multi product context a utility that is constrained by a price cap will likely see either its exogenous sales mix change over time within any customer class or different rates of sales growth among its customer classes in either event the unintended and adverse effect may be a change in the utility s average rate level that results in a price cap violation starting from a base year average rate and moving on to the future the traditional rpi x price cap percentage adjustment provides the utility with a new and violation prone price cap we show that the addition of a specific monetary value to that percentage adjustment will negate any possibility of an unintended price cap violation and thus help the utility stay financially sound we also show how to compute that value from data that are readily available to the utility we do this in the spirit of helping regulators worldwide to restructure energy markets along competitive lines so as to enhance consumer welfare in a wider context this price cap formulation is potentially applicable to price cap regulation in other types of industries that have a multi product and or a multiple customer class context

deregulating property casualty insurance pricing the case of workers compensation abstract property and casualty lines of insurance have traditionally been subject to more regulatory price control than most goods in the u s economy however beginning in the 1970s some states began to deregulate these lines of insurance either dropping mandatory pricing in concert by means of rating bureaus or additionally dropping regulatory prior approval of premiums this paper assesses the impact of rate deregulation in workers compensation insurance besides examining the impact of deregulation on price we examine effects on injury rates as rate regulation may have reduced incentives for workplace safety by restricting price differences across risk classes we find that eliminating both rating bureau pricing and prior approval reduced long run premiums by 13 7 percent and reduced injury rates at most by 8 2 percent in contrast eliminating only rating bureau pricing had small effects

do environmental standards harm manufacturing employment a major issue in the debate about imposing environmental standards on polluting firms is the possibility of negative effects on employment we examine the impact of environmental regulations on employment in an empirical analysis norwegian data are used to study three manufacturing sectors with high shares of units under strict environmental regulations we find that for two of these sectors firms under strict environmental regulations had a higher tendency to increase employment and a lower tendency to exit than firms under weak or no environmental regulation for the third sector environmental regulations had no significant impact on employment i introduction concern for the environment has increased in recent decades in order to control harmful emissions regulators primarily impose environmental standards while governments may be reluctant particularly in a situation with high unemployment to introduce environmental regulations such measures have been welcomed by environmentalists who sometimes even argue that there is no conflict between environmental goals and a low rate of unemployment this paper examines the impact of environmental regulations on employment in an empirical analysis of the relationship between environmental standards and manufacturing employment in norway

what is middle class about the middle classes around the world we expect a lot from the middle classes jim frederick writing in time magazine in 2002 stated china s burgeoning middle class holds the key to the future of the country in a more academic vein easterly 2001 concludes based on a comparison of a large number of countries that countries that have a larger middle class tend to grow faster at least if they are not too ethnically diverse in another article birdsall graham and pettinato 2000 rue the shrinking of the middle class the backbone of both the market economy and of democracy in most advanced societies in the face of burgeoning globalization the economic historian david landes writing about the wealth and poverty of nations 1998 explains england s early ascendancy in terms of the great english middle class of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries of course there is nothing new about this faith in the middle class it follows a long line of theorizing going back at least to max weber 1905 at least three distinct arguments are traditionally made in one new entrepreneurs armed with a capacity and a tolerance for delayed gratification emerge from the middle class and create employment and productivity growth for the rest of society for a formalization of this argument see acemoglu and zilibotti 1997 in a second perhaps more conventional view the middle class is primarily a source of vital inputs for the entrepreneurial class it is their middle class values their emphasis on the accumulation of human capital and savings that makes them central to the process of capitalist accumulation for example doepke and zilibotti 2005 2007 the third view a staple of the business press emphasizes the middle class consumer the consumer who is willing to pay a little extra for quality in this view the middle class demand for quality consumer goods feeds investment in production and marketing which in turn raises income levels for everyone murphy shleifer and vishny 1989 1 this essay asks what we should make of these arguments in the context of today s developing countries starting from data on patterns of consumption and investment by the middle class we look for what is distinct about the global middle class especially when compared to the global poor defined as those whose per capita daily consumption valued at purchasing power parity exchange rates is below 2 a day who were the subject of a previous essay in this journal banerjee and duflo 2007b in particular is there anything special about the way the middle class spend their money earn their incomes or bring up their children

an ex post welfare analysis of natural gas regulation in the industrial sector the current structure of the us natural gas industry is a result of the evolution of regulatory policy over the past three decades which began with the deregulation of natural gas prices at the wellhead ngpa of 1978 and culminated with the deregulation of interstate transportation of natural gas ferc order 636 focusing on the industrial sector this paper estimates the welfare and price effects associated with the changes in regulatory policy overtime actual prices converge towards estimated equilibrium prices consequently deadweight losses diminished an estimated 15 47 billion 2003 dollars of welfare loss had been incurred from 1977 to 2000

contributions of neoclassical economics to public utili iy analysis neoclassical economics the dominant economics paradigm has influenced and been influenced by developments in regulated industries we identify major theoretical and empirical accomplishments discuss the impactofthese accomplishmentsonpolicydevelopment andlist the channelsthrough which the impacts are madepossible we then discuss regulatorypolitics lack ofresearchperspective an overly narrow focus on economic efficiency and the academic profession as factors limiting the impact of neoclassical economics on public policy

competition policy in the united states an overview this paper provides a summary of the basic policies in the united states that affect the state of competition in u s markets much of the paper focuses on antitrust policy but a substantial fraction of the paper is devoted to regulatory policies for both types of policies the paper explains the basic structures of the policies and also provides discussions of recent developments copyright 1993 by oxford university press

u s industry adjustment to economic deregulation conomic deregulation does not happen overnight it takes time for lawmakers and regulators to dismantle regulatory regimes and then it takes more time for the deregulated industries to adjust to their new competitive environment federal regulatory agencies and the u s congress began liberalizing pricing entry and exit in the transportation financial energy and communications industries during the mid 1970s but while some smaller industries such as intercity bus transportation and air cargo have been fully deregulated during that time the only major american industries fully deregulated to date are airlines and motor carriers as to the pace of industry adjustment consider airlines economic deregulation of the airline industry began in 1974 when the civil aeronautics board first encouraged experiments with discount fares it was completed in 1983 when all regulations on fares entry and exit were eliminated yet more than 20 years after the deregulatory process began the airline industry continues to shed inefficiencies that accumulated over decades of regulation and to find new ways to market their service indeed the airlines latest marketing innovation selling discount fares on the internet would be illegal if fares were still regulated it is not surprising that deregulated or partially deregulated industries are slow to achieve maximum efficiency when regulatory restrictions on pricing operations and entry especially from new firms have been enforced for decades managers and employees of regulated firms settle into patterns of inefficient production and missed opportunities for technological advance and entry into new markets deregulation frees an industry from the state s control over prices entry and exit although of course firms are still subject to antitrust laws and safety regulations after deregulation some costs usually fall in short order but it takes

believing in economic theories sex lies evidence trust and ideology i introduction beliefs about the descriptive validity of economic theories may influence preferences among economic policies if so these beliefs may shape and constrain economic institutions and policies in democracies we examine how beliefs about the descriptive validity of supply and demand theory respond to evidence and how these beliefs are related to individual attitudes and demographic characteristics with a strong focus on the potential role played by ideology political economists usually view heterogeneity of policy preferences as mostly reflecting heterogeneity of values interests or goals a large interdisciplinary debate continues about the relative importance of diverse self interests and public spirited goals in explaining political outcomes but the potential role played by diversity of positive beliefs has received relatively little attention preferences under uncertainty are typically decomposed into values utilities of outcomes and beliefs about the likelihoods of outcomes suggesting that heterogeneity of policy preferences may derive as much from differences in beliefs about how the economic world functions as from differences in interests such descriptive beliefs frequently differ sharply from those of economists slembeck 2003 for instance blendon et al 1997 reported that only 28 of the us public think price increases are mainly due to the laws of supply and demand and nearly three fourths of the public believed that the increase in gasoline prices in 1996 was due more to the oil companies trying to increase profits than to supply and demand while 85 of economists believed that supply and demand explained the price increase the recurring significance of ideology or proxies for it in empirical studies of political outcomes provides one reason to take this idea seriously rubin 2001 concluded that while electoral constraints based on voter interests limit politicians behavior factors measuring ideology have large power in explaining congressional voting ideology could reflect self interest but other explanations are possible from the perspective of bounded rationality people might use ideology heuristically to evaluate descriptive claims when evidence is scant or hard to evaluate from a game theoretic perspective people may regard descriptive claims made by others with ideologies different from their own as manipulation attempts and hence may discount them particularly in the long run causality may run the other way around revisions of descriptive beliefs about the workings of the economic world may bring about changes in ideology we address some of these matters below and discuss others in our conclusions romer 2003 p 29 offered a theoretical account of how diverse but correlated beliefs can lead to inefficient policy outcomes even when interests do not vary and concluded that t he research program suggested by this paper is that of bringing ideology back into the analysis of politics there may be a great deal to be learned if we do not presume that ideology is just a mask for individuals well informed pursuit of their self interest but instead consider the possibility that it often reflects individuals beliefs and that these beliefs often influence their actions our results here provide some evidence supporting this view we understand of course that the student respondents we examine in this study are a narrowly selected subset of any polity 1 bearing this in mind perhaps it is best to view our work as illustrating an approach to exploring the relationship between ideology and descriptive belief still more broadly we freely combine econometric and experimental methods of economics with survey measurement tools borrowed from political and social psychology our work here may also be regarded as an applied introduction to some of the latter tools

deregulation ownership and productivity growth in the banking industry evidence from india this paper analyzes the relationship between deregulation and total factor productivity tfp growth in the indian banking industry using a generalized shadow cost function approach tfp growth is decomposed into a technological change a scale and a miscellaneous component a disaggregated panel data analysis using the population of public and private banks over 1985 96 that covers both pre and post deregulation periods indicates that a significant decline in regulatory distortions and the anticipated increase in tfp growth have not yet materialized following deregulation while private sector banks have improved their performance mainly due to the freedom to expand output public sector banks have not responded well to the deregulation measures

endogenous deregulation evidence from oecd countries abstract this paper presents empirical evidence regarding the effect of endogenous deregulation on productivity we find that treating deregulation across oecd countries as an exogenous event overestimates the competitive impact of deregulation on productivity by as much as 40

environmental regulations and plant exit a qualitative response model is applied to study the relationship between environmental regulations and plant exit the data set is norwegian panel data for establishments in three manufacturing sectors that have high shares of units which have been under strict environmental regulations in two of the sectors the estimated exit probability of regulated establishments is ceteris paribus only one third of the exit probability of non regulated establishments we also find that the probability to change regulation status from being non regulated to become regulated depends significantly on economic factors in particular establishments with weak profitability had the highest probability to come under environmental regulation

what s so spatial about diversification in nigeria summary many households in developing countries allocate their productive assets among various income generating activities in order to develop a portfolio of income from occupations with different degrees of risk expected returns and seasonal and liquidity constraints the push and pull factors influencing diversification decisions of households are widely discussed in the literature however no study to date has taken into account spatial interdependence of household decisions in spite of various channels of neighborhood effects such as information flow learning from others social networks and agglomeration economies this paper fills in the gap by incorporating spatial dependence in the choice model of diversification using a spatial auto regressive probit model and an advanced bayesian strategy to its estimation empirical analysis is run taking advantage of the nigerian general household survey panel 2010 11 providing gis coordinates for the surveyed households the results imply endogeneity of the neighbors decisions to allocate their productive assets among various occupations and signal the importance of social learning and agglomeration effects favoring the spillover of diversification activities through neighbors networks and local markets the households decisions respond to local environment factors such as weather shocks or infrastructural constraints as shown by the regional differences taking into account spatial interdependence is particularly important in the event of a wide divide of the data available into different zones as for example in case of the nigerian northern region where the states are larger