simultaneous attainment of energy goals by means of green certificates and emission permits abstract we discuss the analytical effects of introducing emission permits and green certificates and the corresponding quotas as regulatory mechanisms to respectively reduce emissions from electricity production and ensure a certain deployment of renewable energy the different case studies in this paper show that both instruments can be used in order to reach an emission goal or a goal of renewable energy however the combination of these instruments and the way they are used is shown to be important for the price faced by consumers it is shown that the effect on the consumer price is not an unambiguous increase with the introduction of a green quota there is a choice between quotas leading to a lower consumer price and quotas leading to a higher consumer price as a result of this it is shown that it is always optimal to reach a renewable energy deployment goal by the use of green certificates however to reach an emission goal it is sometimes most favourable with respect to consumer prices to use green certificates and sometimes to use emission permits

interactions of factors impacting implementation and sustainability of renewable energy sourced electricity abstract two renewable energy sourced electricity res e technologies are at the forefront of the current energy transition away from fossil fuels wind and solar photovoltaic however res e must overcome implementation and sustainability challenges from factors identified in economic policy societal technological and environmental dimensions res e diffusion is also a complex problem and this critical review suggests that outcomes depend on interdependencies between factors within a single or across multiple dimensions four categories of interactivity have been identified higher capital costs or market inequalities associated with the economic dimension of res e drive supportive policies or incentives in the policy dimension in the policy policy category interactions between res e demand or supply side incentives influence electricity pricing energy market mixes or greenhouse gases emissions the society technology category examines societal technological interactions at both micro and macro scales the environment technology category details interactions between res e and the environment the technology technology category examines synergies between res e when collocated with conventional electricity generation technologies this review identified several knowledge gaps first research on res e implementation lacks system level analyses on the impact of interactions on project outcomes a well developed line of research examines interactions between multiple simultaneous supportive policies on res e implementation in developed nations however a second gap exists on the understanding of these interactions in developing nations a third gap exists on evaluating the impact of technological lock in this includes the impact on res e implementation rates when the complex economic policy governance and societal factors implicated in lock in are removed

slovak electricity market and the price merit order effect of photovoltaics abstract this paper analyses slovak electricity market with a focus on photovoltaic energy it evaluates the impact of the solar electricity penetration into electricity mix on spot prices seeks evidence of the merit order effect in the slovak electricity market and quantifies it based on hourly data the multivariate regression analysis covers the period 2011 2016 the rather small merit order effect estimated by an ols time series model leads to the small decrease of slovak electricity wholesale prices this spot price reduction attributable to the photovoltaics does not outweigh the costs of the support scheme borne by end users what implies a consumer loss

min max regret bidding strategy for thermal generator considering price uncertainty the electricity price volatility brings challenges to bidding strategies in the electricity markets in this paper we propose a minimax regret approach for a market participant to obtain an optimal bidding strategy and the corresponding self scheduled generation plans motivated by recently proposed robust optimization approaches our approach relies on the confidence intervals of price forecasts rather than point estimators we reformulate the minimax regret model as a mixed integer linear program milp and solve it by the benders decomposition algorithm moreover we design a bidding strategy based on the price forecast confidence intervals to generate the offer curve finally we numerically test the minimax regret approach in comparison with the robust optimization approach on three types of thermal generators by using real electricity price data from pjm to verify the effectiveness of our proposed approach

the case of co firing the market level effects of subsidizing biomass co combustion abstract biomass combustion in co firing power plants has been treated differently in renewable electricity promoting policy schemes some policy schemes subsidize biomass co combustion while some do not in this study we analyze the impacts of a policy choice on the fuel uses investment decisions co 2 emissions and on the values of renewable electricity promoting policy instruments in particular we look at the impacts of feed in tariff and a subsidy to renewable energy both together with co 2 emissions price we present an electricity and heat market model where all the solid fossil fuel power plants are able to co fire biomass and fossil fuel in the numerical application the model is used to analyze the differences caused by the policy instruments the results show that subsidizing biomass combustion in a co firing power plant decreases the investments in pure renewable technology however the use of solid fossil fuels is not increased significantly also the co 2 intensity levels of electricity production are nearly equal whether biomass co combustion is subsidized or not

white certificate schemes economic analysis and interactions with the eu ets this paper examines the economic environmental and distributional impacts of an idealised tradable white certificate twc scheme and shows how the impacts are modified when the scheme operates in parallel with the eu emissions trading scheme eu ets it uses simple graphical techniques to assess whether a twc scheme will increase decrease or have an ambiguous effect on electricity demand wholesale and retail electricity prices carbon emissions and investment in energy efficiency paying particular attention to the interpretation of additionality

price based unit commitment with wind power utilization constraints this paper proposes an optimal bidding strategy for independent power producers ipps in the deregulated electricity market the ipps are assumed to be price takers whose objectives are to maximize their profits considering price and wind power output uncertainties while ensuring high wind power utilization the problem is formulated as a two stage stochastic price based unit commitment problem with chance constraints to ensure wind power utilization in our model the first stage decision includes unit commitment and quantity of electricity submitted to the day ahead market the second stage decision includes generation dispatch actual usage of wind power and amount of energy imbalance between the day ahead and real time markets the chance constraint is applied to ensure a certain percentage of wind power utilization so as to comply with renewable energy utilization regulations finally a sample average approximation saa approach is applied to solve the problem and the computational results are reported for the proposed saa algorithm showing the sensitivity of the total profit as the requirement of wind power utilization changes

swedish norwegian tradable green certificates scheme design flaws and perceived investment barriers abstract the eu commission recommends using market based support schemes for renewable electricity projects one example is the swedish norwegian tradable green certificate scheme we examine whether design features in the norwegian part of this scheme specifically the scheme s short duration and the way it is to be abruptly terminated contribute to investors perceptions of barriers we apply econometric techniques on primary data collected in two surveys of norwegian investors in hydropower and we use real options theory to predict and interpret investors responses we show that 1 immediately after the scheme was introduced investors are eager to lock in future subsidies by investing immediately and concerned with factors that may delay the completion of their projects 2 as the certificate deadline neared investors have become increasingly pessimistic and concerned with economic and risk barriers investors in big hydropower plants with regulation reservoirs are particularly concerned with the risk of not completing their projects in time to gain the right to sell certificates these findings are consistent with the predicted responses to the scheme design derived from real options theory in contrast to earlier studies we find no difference in responses to the scheme design across investor types

greener more integrated and less volatile a quantile regression analysis of italian wholesale electricity prices abstract this paper provides estimates of quantile regression models of the relationship between italian day ahead electricity prices the supply of renewables and the inception of a new cable sapei linking sardinia with the italian peninsula in the 2006 2015 time window the results confirm the merit order effects detected in the existing literature both for photovoltaics and wind power more strongly in market conditions characterised by moderately low price levels and with some implied increase in volatility the new cable has apparently challenged the ability of power generating companies to extract value through price spikes has mitigated volatility and its effects have been complementary with those of renewables effects from photovoltaics are more sensitive to robustness checks differences across zonal markets are nonetheless detected

impact of renewables deployment on the co2 price and the co2 emissions in the european electricity sector abstract as of 2005 electricity generators in europe operate under the european union emission trading system eu ets at the same time european member states have launched support mechanisms to stimulate the deployment of renewable electricity sources res e res e injections displace co 2 emissions within the sectors operating under the eu ets and they reduce the demand for european union allowances euas thereby reducing the eua price this paper presents the results of an ex post analysis to quantify the impact of res e deployment on the eua price and co 2 emissions in the western and southern european electricity sector during the period from 2007 to 2010 following from an operational partial equilibrium model of the electricity sector this study shows that the co 2 displacement from the electricity sector to other ets sectors due to res e deployment can be up to more than 10 of historical co 2 emissions in the electricity sector the eua price decrease caused by res e deployment turns out to be likely significant

stochastic unit commitment with uncertain demand response although demand response dr encourages customers to voluntarily schedule electricity consumption based on price signals the response from the consumer side could be uncertain due to a variety of reasons in this letter we study the stochastic unit commitment problem with uncertain demand response to enhance the reliability unit commitment process for independent system operators isos we use a stochastic representation of dr by scenario and each scenario corresponds to a price elastic demand curve contingency constraints are considered and in addition a chance constraint is applied to ensure the loss of load probability lolp lower than a pre defined risk level finally a sample average approximation saa method is applied to solve the problem

market and welfare effects of renewable portfolio standards in united states electricity markets abstract this study analyzes the market and welfare effects of the introduction of renewable portfolio standards rps while considering the empirically relevant a interaction of compliance with voluntary green power markets b differences in consumer preferences and c imperfect competition among electricity suppliers the study accounts for both the supply and demand effects of rps i e increased costs and a higher consumer valuation for regular power our analysis shows that the regular power price always increases after the introduction of rps while the effect of rps on the equilibrium price of green power the quantities of regular and green power the welfare of consumers and suppliers profits is case specific and dependent on the relative magnitude of the cost and utility effects the strength of consumer preference for green power the suppliers costs before rps the impact of rps on green power costs and the degree of competition among power suppliers while the introduction of rps aims at increasing the use of green energy in electricity production our analysis shows that the introduction of the policy can end up reducing the total quantity of green power used intriguingly this adverse policy impact will occur under seemingly optimal conditions for the green power sector i e a high consumer valuation of green energy and or low cost difference between the green power and its conventional counterpart finally the analysis shows that the policy design can play a key role in determining the incidence of rps while the identification of the winners and losers of the policy can provide insights on the political economy of rps and the positions held by different groups in policy negotiations

stochastic joint optimization of wind generation and pumped storage units in an electricity market one of the main characteristics of wind power is the inherent variability and unpredictability of the generation source even in the short term to cope with this drawback hydro pumped storage units have been proposed in the literature as a good complement to wind generation due to their ability to manage positive and negative energy imbalances over time this paper investigates the combined optimization of a wind farm and a pumped storage facility from the point of view of a generation company in a market environment the optimization model is formulated as a two stage stochastic programming problem with two random parameters market prices and wind generation the optimal bids for the day ahead spot market are the ldquohere and nowrdquo decisions while the optimal operation of the facilities are the recourse variables a joint configuration is modeled and compared with an uncoordinated operation a realistic example case is presented where the developed models are tested with satisfactory results

the danish green certificate system some simple analytical results we formulate a simple static equilibrium model for the electricity market taking account of both green certificates and co2 emission permits the objective is to investigate the relationship between these markets under the existence of upper and lower price bounds on the green certificates both in the short and in the long run we perform various comparative static changes of the parameters of the model and study how these affect the endogenous variables of the model as well as producers and consumers surplus we also investigate the effects of imports and exports of electricity several comparative static results are derived and in particular it is shown that harsher co2 emission constraints and increased import wholesale price both may lead to reduced capacity of green electricity

how do energy environmental policy goals and instruments affect electricity demand a framework for the analysis several measures in the environment and energy realms are currently being implemented in the eu and its member states three of these instruments with an impact on the electricity market are demand side management activities promotion of electricity from renewable energy sources and measures aimed at the mitigation of greenhouse gas ghg emissions the objective of this paper is to analyse the impact of these energy efficiency and environmental goals and instruments on electricity demand and costs to electricity consumers when electricity markets are either national or international and when those policies are implemented by a national or an international institution the paper shows that the effectiveness and impact of those measures largely depends on the demand response in the electricity market an additional conclusion is that when either the electricity markets or the support policies are national distortions may occur i e the reductions in electricity demand in one country may be subsidised by consumers or taxpayers in another country

strategic choices for renewable energy investment conceptual framework and opportunities for further research this paper introduces the special issue on strategic choices for renewable energy investment which is a collection of best papers presented at an international research conference held in st gallen switzerland in february 2010 substantial private investment is needed if public policy objectives to increase the share of renewable energy and prevent dangerous anthropogenic climate change are to be achieved the aim of this paper and the entire special issue is to draw scholarly attention to the processes underlying strategic choices for renewable energy investment and how they are influenced by energy policy we disentangle the role of risk return perceptions portfolio effects and path dependence in explaining energy investment decisions and suggest that the heterogeneous universe of investors requires a segmentation of policies the paper outlines some of the rich opportunities for further research in this emerging area

expected value and chance constrained stochastic unit commitment ensuring wind power utilization this paper proposes an expected value and chance constrained stochastic optimization approach for the unit commitment problem with uncertain wind power output in the model the utilization of wind power can be adjusted by changing the utilization rate in the proposed expected value constraint meanwhile the chance constraint is used to restrict the probability of load imbalance then a sample average approximation saa method is used to transform the objective function the expected value constraint and the chance constraint into sample average reformulations furthermore a combined saa framework that considers both the expected value and the chance constraints is proposed to construct statistical upper and lower bounds for the optimization problem finally the performance of the proposed algorithm with different utilization rates and different risk levels is tested for a six bus system a revised ieee 118 bus system is also studied to show the scalability of the proposed model and algorithm

is renewable energy a cost effective mitigation resource an application to the spanish electricity market abstract this paper evaluates the net effect of renewable energy policy in spain from 2002 to 2017 and calculates its cost effectiveness in terms of co2 emission reductions in the production of electricity our conclusions indicate that although the phasing out of feed in tariffs reduced the regulatory costs it also limited renewable participation in the electricity market leading to an increased electricity price and higher emissions according to our results the joint effect of i the value of avoided emissions due to renewable energy participation and ii the merit order effect was able to compensate for the regulatory costs subsidies up until 2010 while the sign of the net effect was reversed from 2011 to 2017 finally we find that the economic implications of emission reductions are highly dependent on how the social cost of carbon is measured

why nations become wealthy the effects of adult longevity on saving we analyze steady state and out of steady state effects of the transition in adult longevity on the national saving rate using historical data and international panel data the rise in adult life expectancy has a large and statistically significant effect on aggregate saving the effects have been especially pronounced in east asia because its mortality transition was very rapid gains in life expectancy are much more important than declines in child dependency population aging may not lead to lower saving rates in the future if life expectancy and the duration of retirement continue to increase

optimal regulation of renewable energy a comparison of feed in tariffs and tradable green certificates in the spanish electricity system abstract incentives for renewable energy based on feed in tariffs have succeeded in achieving high levels of renewable installed capacity however these incentives have not been responsive to market conditions or price signals imposing in some cases a great financial burden on consumers when renewable energy sources reached significant levels a way out of this problem could be a market mechanism where incentives respond to the level of investment on renewables we explore this issue comparing a regulatory system based on tradable green certificates able to react to market changes to a feed in tariffs incentive scheme we model the strategic interaction between participants in the electricity pool and the tradable green certificates market and focus on the optimal regulation for the retailer segment which generates the desired demand for green certificates as a decreasing function of the certificate price we then calibrate our theoretical model with data from the spanish electricity system for the period 2008 2013 simulations show that a green certificate scheme could both achieve the 2020 targets for renewable electricity and reduce regulatory costs however the role of regulators is still important since setting the right target for renewable electricity affects the cost burden of the system

the political economy of international green certificate markets this paper analyzes the political economy of establishing bilateral trade in green certificate markets as one step towards harmonization of european green electricity support systems we outline some of the economic principles of an integrated bilateral green certificates market and then discuss a number of issues that are deemed to be critical for the effectiveness stability and legitimacy of such a market by drawing on some of the lessons of the fairly recent intentions to integrate a future green certificate market in norway with the existing swedish one we highlight exemplify and discuss some critical policy implementation and design issues these include for instance the system s connection to climate policy targets the role of other support schemes and the definition of what green electricity technologies should be included furthermore the establishment of an international market presumes that the benefits of renewable power e g its impacts on the environment diversification of the power mix self sufficiency etc are approached and valued from an international perspective rather than from a national one thus implying lesser emphasis on for instance employment and regional development impacts a bilateral green certificate system thus faces a number of important policy challenges but at the same time it could provide important institutional learning effects that can be useful for future attempts aiming at achieving greater policy integration in the european renewable energy sector

interactions between the power and green certificate markets abstract the current trend of liberalising the power markets is combined with ambitious deployment plans for power production based on renewable energy supplies a new policy scheme to ensure this extension has been developed in the form of a green certificate system with a politically determined target of deployment in such a system producers of renewably based electricity receive tradable certificates in proportion to the electricity they produce the producer can thereby sell these certificates and receive additional revenue apart from the power price this paper studies the price and consumption effects of such a system with a simple model we show that the effects are ambiguous this ambiguity is caused by the interaction between the two markets therefore the green certificate system is difficult to manage if the state has parallel energy targets such as a desired deployment of renewably based energy and a stabilisation or reduction of the energy consumption in addition this complicates the regulation through a deployment target of renewably based power production as the regulator has to be aware of the different effects which follow a specific target until now these effects have not been considered in the analyses of the green certificate system when introducing the system even though it might have considerable consequences for the success of the system

the impact of oil prices on gdp in european countries an empirical investigation based on asymmetric cointegration this paper investigates the existence of a long term relationship between oil prices and gdp in 12 european countries to account for the fact that economic activity responds asymmetrically to oil price shocks we propose an approach based on asymmetric cointegration our results show that while standard cointegration is rejected there is evidence for asymmetric cointegration between oil prices and gdp in the majority of the considered european countries

impacts of a common green certificate market on electricity and co2 emission markets in the nordic countries abstract the purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of introducing a common nordic system for tradable green certificates tgcs on the electricity market and a future market for tradable co 2 emission permits teps in the analysis the energy system model generator markal was used to model the electricity and district heating supply systems in the four nordic countries sweden norway finland and denmark it is shown that the introduction of tgc quotas reduces wholesale electricity and tep prices the impact on the latter is very pronounced retail electricity prices may become lower or higher depending on the tgc quota than if obligations to fulfill tgc quotas were absent the tgc scheme s efficiency in reducing a specific amount of co 2 emissions is also compared to the corresponding efficiency of a tep scheme involving a broader range of technologies furthermore obligations to fulfill tgc quotas affect investment incentives for new non renewable electricity supply this seems especially true for gas fired power plants finally it is indicated that electricity supply based on biomass combustion dominates the tgc scheme at least in the short run

strong formulations for multistage stochastic self scheduling unit commitment with the increasing penetration of renewable energy into the power grid system the volatility of real time electricity prices increases significantly this brings challenges for independent power producers to provide optimal bidding strategies the traditional approaches of only attending the day ahead market might not be profitable enough without taking advantage of real time price volatility in this paper we study the optimal bidding strategies for the independent power producers utilizing self scheduling strategies to participate in the real time market considering real time electricity price volatility with the objective of maximizing the total expected profit considering the correlations of renewable energy generation outputs among different time periods the correlations of real time prices are captured in our modeling framework in which we explore a multistage stochastic scenario tree to formulate the price uncertainties accordingly the derived multistage stochastic self scheduling unit com

financial risks for green electricity investors and producers in a tradable green certificate market this paper analyzes financial risks in a market for tradable green certificates tgc from two perspectives existing renewable producers and potential investors in new renewable electricity generation capacity the equilibrium pricing mechanism for a consumer based tgc market is described and a market with wind turbines as the sole renewable technology is analyzed in this framework tgc prices and fluctuations in production from wind turbines will be negatively correlated and as a result tgc price fluctuations can actually help decrease the total financial risk based on this recognition analytical expressions for revenue variance minimizing trading strategies are derived and an analysis of the demand and supply for financial hedging is used to show that forward contracts will be traded at a risk premium

growth inequality and social welfare cross country evidence social welfare functions that assign weights to individuals based on their income levels can be used to document the relative importance of growth and inequality changes for changes in social welfare in a large panel of industrial and developing countries over the past 40 years most of the cross country and over time variation in changes in social welfare is due to changes in average incomes in contrast the changes in inequality observed during this period are on average much smaller than changes in average incomes are uncorrelated with changes in average incomes and have contributed relatively little to changes in social welfare

changing crude oil price effects on us agricultural employment the effect of changes in the price of crude oil on agricultural employment in the usa between 1947 and 1995 is investigated after reviewing previous assessments of the issue the existence of an empirical relationship between agricultural employment and crude oil price changes is established using granger causality subsequently the nature of the relationship is estimated with the results suggesting that at least three full years are required before the measurable effects of a percentage change in the real price of crude oil on the change in agricultural employment are exhausted finally the structural stability of the functional relationship between the change in agricultural employment and changes in the price of crude oil the percentage changes in expected net farm income realized technological innovation and the wage rate is studied

lower electricity prices and greenhouse gas emissions due to rooftop solar empirical results for massachusetts abstract monthly and hourly correlations among photovoltaic pv capacity utilization electricity prices electricity consumption and the thermal efficiency of power plants in massachusetts reduce electricity prices and carbon emissions beyond average calculations pv utilization rates are highest when the thermal efficiencies of natural gas fired power plants are lowest which reduces emissions of co 2 and ch 4 by 0 3 relative to the annual average emission rate there is a positive correlation between pv utilization rates and electricity prices which raises the implied price of pv electricity by up to 10 relative to the annual average price such that the average mwh reduces electricity prices by 0 26 1 86 per mwh these price reductions save massachusetts rate payers 184 million between 2010 and 2012 the current and net present values of these savings are greater than the cost of solar renewable energy credits which is the policy instrument that is used to accelerate the installation of pv capacity together these results suggest that rooftop pv is an economically viable source of power in massachusetts even though it has not reached socket parity

energy security coping with multiple supply risks this study starts from the observation that today s western trading nations are exposed to multiple risks of energy supplies eg simultaneous shortage of oil and gas supplies to cope with these risks both oil and gas can be stockpiled adopting the viewpoint of a policy maker who aims at minimizing the expected cost of security of supply optimal simultaneous adjustments of oil and gas stocks to exogenous changes such as an increase in the probability of supply disruption are derived against this benchmark one dimensional rules such as oil reserves for 90 days turn out to be not only suboptimal but also to suggest adjustments exacerbating suboptimality

relationship between oil prices interest rate and unemployment evidence from an emerging market abstract while the interrelation between oil price changes economic activity and employment is an important issue that has been studied mainly for developed countries little attention has been devoted to inquiries on fluctuations in the price of crude oil and its impact on employment for small open economies adopting an efficiency wage model for equilibrium employment that does not require any assumptions regarding labor supply this paper contributes to the literature by investigating the causality between unemployment and two input prices namely energy crude oil and capital real interest rate in an emerging market turkey for the period 2005 01 2009 08 applying a relatively new technique the toda yamamoto procedure we find that the real price of oil and interest rate improve the forecasts of unemployment in the long run this finding supports the hypothesis that labor is a substitute factor of production for capital and energy

public policy influence on renewable energy investments a panel data study across oecd countries this paper examines the impact of public policy measures on renewable energy re investments in electricity generating capacity made by institutional investors using a novel combination of datasets and a longitudinal research design we investigate the influence of different policy measures in a sample of oecd countries to suggest an effective policy mix which could tackle failures in the market for clean energy the results call for technology specific policies which take into account actual market conditions and technology maturity to improve the conditions for institutional investments advisable policy instruments include economic and fiscal incentives such as feed in tariffs fit especially for less mature technologies additionally market based instruments such as greenhouse gas ghg emission trading systems for mature technologies should be included these policy measures directly impact the risk and return structure of re projects supplementing these with regulatory measures such as codes and standards e g rps and long term strategic planning could further strengthen the context for re investments

on the impact of demographic change on economic growth and poverty abstract changing population age structures are shaping the trajectories of development in many countries bringing opportunities and challenges while aging has been a matter of concern for upper middle and high income economies rapid population growth is set to continue in the poorest countries over the coming decades at the same time these countries will see sustained increases in the working age shares of their population and these shifts have the potential to boost growth and reduce poverty this paper describes the main mechanisms through which demographic change may affect economic outcomes and estimates the association between changes in the share of working age population with per capita growth and poverty rate an increase in the working age population share and a reduction in the child dependency ratio are found to be associated with an increase in gross domestic product per capita growth with similarly positive effects on poverty reduction

determinants of renewable energy growth a global sample analysis abstract we investigate factors influencing country level renewable energy growth by applying fevd and pcse estimation methods in a unique sample analysis with a longer time series 1990 2010 and a broader sample size of countries including brazil russia india china and south africa than previous studies our results reveal new insights the results suggest that certain government backed energy policies impede renewable energy investments thus implying significant failures in policy design these policies may be failing mainly because of uncertainty and the likelihood of discontinuity weak voluntary approaches are introduced in order to satisfy public demand for more sustainable investments and programmes we find that these may have negative influences on the growth of renewables as well the insight gained is consistent over the estimation methods employed

research on optimal benchmark price of tradable green certificate based on system dynamics a china perspective abstract renewable portfolio standard rps is a compulsory institutional change to achieve low carbon energy transformation in china its success depends on the scientific system quasi parameter design the most important system quasi parameter is the benchmark price of the tradable green certificate tgc setting the benchmark price of tgc scientifically and reasonably in line with china s national conditions is conducive to the effective implementation of rps in china based on the system dynamics sd to construct china s green certificate trading market model this paper analyzes the interaction between the tgc market and the electricity market under the rps and uses vensim simulation to simulate the optimal tgc benchmark price based on the maximization of social welfare the results show that the tgc market and the electricity market are mutually influential as the benchmark price of tgc increases the total power generation increases and the on grid price decreases consumer surplus producer surplus and social welfare all reach the maximum when the tgc benchmark price is 0 4yuan kwh so determines 0 4yuan kwh as the optimal benchmark price of tgc

wind power trading under uncertainty in lmp markets this paper presents a new model for optimal trading of wind power in day ahead da electricity markets under uncertainty in wind power and prices the model considers settlement mechanisms in markets with locational marginal prices lmps where wind power is not necessarily penalized from deviations between da schedule and real time rt dispatch we use kernel density estimation to produce a probabilistic wind power forecast whereas uncertainties in da and rt prices are assumed to be gaussian utility theory and conditional value at risk cvar are used to represent the risk preferences of the wind power producers the model is tested on real world data from a large scale wind farm in the united states optimal da bids are derived under different assumptions for risk preferences and deviation penalty schemes the results show that in the absence of a deviation penalty the optimal bidding strategy is largely driven by price expectations a deviation penalty brings the bid closer to the expected wind power forecast furthermore the results illustrate that the proposed model can effectively control the trade off between risk and return for wind power producers operating in volatile electricity markets

renewable generation expansion under different support schemes a stochastic equilibrium approach abstract following the deregulation of electricity markets a current challenge of policy makers is to facilitate the transition to a sustainable power system at the highest welfare for society in this paper we investigate the efficiency of different support schemes such as a feed in tariff a feed in premium and tradable green certificates with respect to incentivizing the required investments in renewable generation we consider a number of generation expansion problems and formulate stochastic equilibrium models that account for uncertainty in demand and renewable supply the risk aversion of investors and the competitiveness of the market the problem of the policy maker is formulated as a mathematical program with equilibrium constraints mpec and as a non linear complementarity problem ncp for the feed in schemes and the certificate market respectively our models are solved for a small illustrative example and a larger case study based on the danish power system the results confirm that the main driver for the optimal choice of renewable support scheme is the aversion of power producers towards price and volume risk while the competitiveness of the market rarely affects such choice

risk constrained bidding strategy with stochastic unit commitment this paper develops optimal bidding strategies based on hourly unit commitment in a generation company genco that participates in energy and ancillary services markets the price based unit commitment problem with uncertain market prices is modeled as a stochastic mixed integer linear program the market price uncertainty is modeled using the scenario approach monte carlo simulation is applied to generate scenarios scenario reduction techniques are applied to reduce the size of the stochastic price based unit commitment problem and postprocessing is applied based on marginal cost of committed units to refine bidding curves the financial risk associated with market price uncertainty is modeled using expected downside risk which is incorporated explicitly as a constraint in the problem accordingly the proposed method provides a closed loop solution to devising specific strategies for risk based bidding in a genco illustrative examples show the impact of market price uncertainty on genco s hourly commitment schedule and discuss the way gencos could decrease financial risks by managing expected payoffs

oil prices and economic activity an asymmetric cointegration approach the aim of this paper is to study the long term relationship between oil prices and economic activity proxied by gdp to account for asymmetries existing in the links between the two variables we propose an approach based on asymmetric cointegration our empirical analysis concerns the u s economy but also the g7 europe and euro area economies results indicate that while standard cointegration is rejected there is evidence for asymmetric cointegration between oil prices and gdp

aid and growth what does the cross country evidence really show abstract we examine the effects of aid on growth in cross sectional and panel data after correcting for the possible bias that poorer or stronger growth may draw aid contributions to recipient co

dynamic analysis of the german day ahead electricity spot market abstract this paper analyzes the dynamic behavior of day ahead spot prices in the german electricity spot market due to positive structural shocks in wind and solar power it uses a dynamic structural vector autoregressive model to estimate the related structural impulse response functions the estimates suggest that wind power shocks have a more prolonged negative effect on spot prices than solar power shocks significant autocorrelations of wind power for larger lags indicate these results the total negative merit order effect of a solar power shock is larger when using a reasonable model specification one reason might be that solar power shocks coincide with demand peaks however results regarding the relation of the effects of wind and solar should be dealt with carefully because these results do not hold for all specifications past static estimates show differences in the total average negative merit order effects these estimates might be overstated if wind and solar power dynamics are transferred to the merit order effects

what drives private saving around the world the authors investigate the policy and non policy factors behind saving disparities using a large panel data set and an encompassing approach including several relevant determinants of private saving they extend the literature in several dimensions by 1 using the largest data set on aggregate saving assembled to date 2 using panel instrumental variable techniques to correct for endogeneity and heterogeneity 3 performing robustness checks on changes in estimation procedures data samples and model specification their main empirical findings a private saving rates show considerable inertia are highly serially correlated even after controlling for other relevant factors b private sector rates rise with the level and growth rate of real per capita income so policies that spur development are in indirect but effective way to raise private saving rates c predictions of the life cycle hypothesis are supported in that dependency ratios generally have a negative effect on private saving rates d the precautionary motive for saving is supported by the finding that inflation conventionally taken as a summary measure of macroeconomic volatility has a positive impact on private saving holding other facts constant e fiscal policy is a moderately effective tool for raising national saving f the direct effect of financial liberalization are largely detrimental to private saving rates greater availability of credit reduces the private saving rate financial depth and higher real interest rates do not increase saving