status and outlook for thailand s low carbon electricity development thailand is facing an urgency to enhance its energy security and capacity to cope with global warming impacts as demands on fossil fuel consumption keep rising this paper reviewed the latest situation on renewable powers and developmental strategies toward low carbon electricity generation in thailand government recently has spent tremendous financial and legislative supports to promote the uses of indigenous renewable energy resources and fuel diversification while contributing in reduction of global greenhouse gas major policy challenge is on which types of renewable energy should be more pronounced to ensure sustainable future of the country regions in thailand present different potentials for renewable supply on biomass municipal wastes hydropower and wind to maximize renewable energy development in each area location is matter currently energy derived biomass is widely utilized within the country however if droughts happen more often and severe it will not only affect food security but also energy security life cycle of biomass energy production may cause other social issues on land and chemical uses meanwhile deployment of wind and solar energy has been slow and needs to speed up to the large extent in comparison with energy proportion from biomass nuclear power has already been included in the thai power development plan 2010 pdp 2010 however public acceptance is a major issue setting up strategic renewable energy zone to support power producer according to pre determined potential location may assist development direction furthermore government has to strongly subsidize research and development to lower technology cost and promote private investment on renewable energy industry in the future revision of electricity price is needed to allow fair competition between non renewable and renewable energy once subsidy programs are ended environmental tax according to fuel types could help government progressing toward low carbon electricity stimulating renewable energy development and utilization at local community is a key for thai sufficiency economy

oil vulnerability index of oil importing countries abstract this paper assesses the relative oil vulnerability of 26 net oil importing countries for the year 2004 on the basis of various indicators the ratio of value of oil imports to gross domestic product gdp oil consumption per unit of gdp gdp per capita and oil share in total energy supply ratio of domestic reserves to oil consumption exposure to geopolitical oil market concentration risks as measured by net oil import dependence diversification of supply sources political risk in oil supplying countries and market liquidity the approach using the principal component technique has been adopted to combine these individual indicators into a composite index of oil vulnerability such an index captures the relative sensitivity of various economies towards developments of the international oil market with a higher index indicating higher vulnerability the results show that there are considerable differences in the values of individual indicators of oil vulnerability and overall oil vulnerability index among the countries both inter and intraregional

prospects for the power sector in nine developing countries abstract based on information drawn primarily from official planning documents issued by national governments and or utilities this article examines the outlook for the power sector in the year 2000 in nine countries china india indonesia thailand the philippines south korea taiwan argentina and mexico this study found that the implicit rates of average annual growth of installed electric power capacity between 1991 and 2001 range from a low of 3 3 per year in argentina to a high 13 2 per year in indonesia in absolute terms china and india account for the vast majority of the growth the plan calls for a shift in the generating mix towards coal in six of the countries and continued strong reliance on coal in china and india the use of natural gas is expected to increase substantially in a number of the countries the historic movement away from oil continues although some countries are maintaining dual fuel capabilities plans call for considerable growth of nuclear power in south korea and china and modest increases in india and taiwan the feasibility of the official plans varies among the countries lack of public capital is leading towards greater reliance on private sector participation in power projects in many of the countries environmental issues are becoming a more significant constraint than in the past particularly in the case of large scale hydropower projects the financial and environmental constraints are leading to a rising interest in methods of improving the efficiency of electricity supply and end use the scale of such activities is growing in most of the study countries

the failure of woodford s model of the channel system in the cashless economy woodford claims to present a cashless and frictionless model of the channel system of interest rate control this note explains why woodford s frictionless model omits an essential feature of channel systems the need for clearing e cash balances at the central bank without the existence of some form of final settlement on the books of the central bank channel systems collapse woodford makes this conceptual error because he assumes that moneyless accounting systems of exchange can be applied to model e cash economies

measuring global oil trade dependencies an application of the point wise mutual information method abstract oil trade is one of the most vital networks in the global economy in this paper we analyze the 1998 2012 oil trade networks using the point wise mutual information pmi method and determine the pairwise trade preferences and dependencies using examples of the usa s trade partners this research demonstrates the usefulness of the pmi method as an additional methodological tool to evaluate the outcomes from countries decisions to engage in preferred trading partners a positive pmi value indicates trade preference where trade is larger than would be expected for example in 2012 the usa imported 2 548 7 kbpd despite an expected 358 5 kbpd of oil from canada conversely a negative pmi value indicates trade dis preference where the amount of trade is smaller than what would be expected for example the 15 year average of annual pmi between saudi arabia and the u s a is 0 130 and between russia and the usa 1 596 we reflect the three primary reasons of discrepancies between actual and neutral model trade can be related to position price and politics the pmi can quantify the political success or failure of trade preferences and can more accurately account temporal variation of interdependencies

interdependency of natural gas network and power system security this paper proposes an integrated model for assessing the impact of interdependency of electricity and natural gas networks on power system security the integrated model incorporates the natural gas network constraints into the optimal solution of security constrained unit commitment the natural gas network is modeled by daily and hourly limits on pipelines sub areas plants and generating units the application of fuel diversity e g generating units with fuel switching capability is presented as an effective peak shaving strategy for natural gas demand which could hedge price volatilities of natural gas and electric power the proposed model can be used by a vertically integrated utility for the commitment and dispatch of generating units and the allocation of natural gas for the next day utilization the proposed model can also be used for measuring the security of social services by modeling the interdependency of natural gas and electric power system infrastructures if the proposed model is used by gencos gas constraints will be submitted to electricity markets as energy constraints illustrative examples show the impact of natural gas supply infrastructure on the economic operation of a vertically integrated utility the examples also discuss the impact of generating units with fuel switching capability on the power system security when the supply of natural gas is limited

allocation of firm energy rights among hydro plants an aumann shapley approach the firm energy of generation plants is a critical component in some electricity markets it is usually calculated by the regulator and sets a cap to the amount a plant can trade in capacity markets or auctions in order to avoid free riding behaviors firm energy is a systemic property and in case of hydro plants a synergy is observed whenever a cooperative operation occurs i e the firm energy of a system is greater than the sum of the individual plants this immediately raises the question of how to divide the system s firm energy among the individual hydro plants the objective of this work is to investigate the application of different allocation methods of firm energy rights among hydro plants using a game theoretic framework it is shown that there is not an optimal and unique approach to make this allocation the paper investigates the advantages and disadvantages of different methods such as marginal allocation average production during the critical period incremental allocation finally recommending the aumann shapley as the allocation method this method is tested for the brazilian power system which has around 100 hydro plants the results obtained are compared with the current allocation adopted by the electricity regulatory agency of brazil

domestic demand for petroleum products in mena countries abstract the purpose of this paper is to analyse the domestic demand for petroleum products in the middle east and north african mena countries employing a recent data series 1982 2005 understanding the domestic demand of oil producing countries is important due to the existence of subsidised supply loss of foreign exchange income and the environmental effects of oil use the paper analyses the evolution of petroleum product demand in mena and presents an econometric analysis of demand using a simple log linear specification for four petroleum products namely gasoline diesel kerosene and fuel oil the study covers seven mena countries namely algeria iran kuwait libya saudi arabia uae and qatar the results show that demand has grown quite fast in these countries probably because the fuel price has been kept very low while income has risen fast and thus demand has grown fast the gasoline demand model has performed better than other models in terms of producing expected signs for the parameters the results for the kerosene model was the least satisfactory as most of the coefficients were found to be statistically insignificant however in terms of numerical results this study compares well with other similar studies of the past

global oil gas depletion an overview abstract the world s production of conventional hydrocarbons will soon decline hydrocarbon shortages are inevitable unless radical changes occur in demand or in the supply of non conventional hydrocarbons the details are as follows global conventional oil supply is currently at political risk this is because the sum of conventional oil production from all countries in the world except the five main middle east suppliers is near the maximum set by physical resource limits should middle east suppliers decide to substantially curtail supply the shortfall cannot be replaced by conventional oil from other sources world conventional oil supply will soon be at physical risk the middle east countries have only little spare operational capacity and this will be increasingly called upon as oil production declines elsewhere large investments in middle east production if they occur could raise output but only to a limited extent a partial exception is iraq but even here there would be significant delays before prospects are confirmed and infrastructure is in place if demand is maintained and if large investments in middle east capacity are not made the world will face the prospect of oil shortages in the near term even with large investments resource limits will force middle east production to decline fairly soon and hence also global conventional oil production the date of this resource limited global peak depends on the size of middle east reserves which are poorly known and unreliably reported best estimates put the physical peak of global conventional oil production between 5 and 10 years from now the world contains large quantities of non conventional oil and various oil substitutes but the rapidity of the decline in the production of conventional oil makes it probable that these non conventional sources cannot come on stream fast enough to fully compensate the result will be a sustained global oil shortage for conventional gas the world s original endowment is probably about the same in energy terms as its endowment of conventional oil since less gas has been used so far compared to oil the world will turn increasingly to gas as oil declines but the global peak in conventional gas production is already in sight in perhaps 20 years and hence the global peak of all hydrocarbons oil plus gas is likely to be in about 10 or so years

analysis of oil export dependency of mena countries drivers trends and prospects abstract the purpose of this paper is to analyse how oil export dependencies of middle east and north african mena oil producers have evolved over the past two decades and to identify the main driving factors from an energy policy perspective the paper expresses the oil export dependency of each economy in terms of a multiplicative identity that captures effective export price export to primary oil supply ratio oil dependency and oil export intensity of the country using the data for 1980 2006 the evolution in these factors is investigated for seven mena countries and the influence of the above factors is decomposed using the laspeyres index the analysis shows that energy price and increasing energy intensity in the mena countries have influenced the overall oil export dependency reducing the energy intensity can improve oil export revenue share to gdp by 5 10 in most of the countries while iran can gain significantly by increasing its export volume

energy supply security and geopolitics a european perspective the security of energy supply to the eu is examined in the context of two storylines markets and institutions exemplifies an economically and politically integrated multilateral world with effective institutions and markets regions and empires involves a world broken up in rival political and economic blocks competing for resources and markets via political economic and military power it is shown that these storylines have a significant impact on the development of the energy market on the way in which energy supply may be secured and on the effect and applicability of the several types of instruments available the current eu is geared towards enlargement and a deepening of economic integration based on the tenets of the post 1945 multilateral world system the present world tends towards regions and empires and suggests that the eu may have to reorient its energy security policy energy policy must become an integral part of eu external trade and foreign relations and security policy the eu should develop its own strategy actively investing in dialogues with producer countries in the persian gulf and africa and with russia sustainable prosperity and governance in these regions will support eu energy security

indicators of security of natural gas supply in asia natural gas has become an increasingly valuable resource and a global commodity the demand for it has significantly increased japan korea and taiwan heavily rely on liquefied natural gas lng imports for their gas supplies from malaysia brunei indonesia australia and the middle east on the other hand countries like thailand and singapore import gas via trans border pipelines gas supply interruptions volatile gas prices transportation and distribution bottlenecks and a growing reliance on imports over longer distances have renewed interest on gas security in asia this paper examines the relative vulnerability to natural gas supply disruptions of seven gas importing countries in asia for year 2008 based on four indicators of security of gas supply a composite gas supply security index is estimated as an overall indication of gas vulnerability for our sample countries the results demonstrate that there are differences in the values of the overall indicator of gas vulnerability among countries and the assessment is useful in developing an effective strategy of natural gas supply security in countries in the asian region

money as stock abstract the fiscal theory determines the price level from the value of nominal government debt as a claim to government primary surpluses just as private stock is valued as a claim to corporate profits valuation equations are not constraints so this theory does not mistreat the government s intertemporal budget constraint i anchor the analysis in a simple cash in advance model when money demand falls to zero i show that the price level can still be determined by the government debt valuation equation

bidding of price taker power generators in the deregulated turkish power market abstract in deregulated power markets power firms bid into the day ahead power market either with buy offers or sell offers the auction mechanism and competition determine the equilibrium price and quantity for each hour if the bid price of a company is below the market clearing price then the offer of the company is accepted and rewarded with the market price a company can be a price maker or price taker depending on the capacity it offers to the market a price taker unit must determine the right offer that will maximize their profit given price uncertainty and blind auction rules this paper first examines power supply in the turkish electricity market and bidding process then a marginal cost based monte carlo method is developed to determine hourly and block bidding strategies of price taker units historical market prices are then implemented in a normal distribution to generate hourly price scenarios a solution methodology is developed that maximizes the expected profit of each hourly and block bidding strategy over price scenarios the generator is able to both evaluate the hourly bidding and block bidding strategies and find the best bidding strategy that will be submitted to the market using the proposed methodology the model is illustrated for two coal units in turkish power market and the results are presented

assessing the determinants of sids pattern toward sustainability a statistical analysis abstract the aim of this paper is twofold first we assess the sids pattern towards energy sustainability second we try to understand the macro factors that drive policy makers in setting the optimal framework for investments in renewable energy sources the empirical analysis is performed on a large dataset of 136 countries and 41 variables observed in the time span 2000 2011 countries analyzed include a sample of 12 sids bahrain cuba dominican republic fiji islands guyana haiti jamaica maldives mauritius papua new guinea singapore trinidad and tobago distributed worldwide due to the large number of variables collected and their high degree of collinearity the first step of the analysis concerns the implementation of a principal component analysis in order to extract factors explaining the majority of variation of the original variables in the second step three different scenarios of modeling are designed to examine the key factors promoting res investments in a first scenario we employ a pooled regression model in the second a fixed effect model and in the third a random effect model is estimated the main results of empirical analysis could be unexpected at first sight they show in fact that sids are not on a energy sustainability path as in the case of other developing countries policy makers prefer to use resources to improve economic aspects of development leaving behind issues related to the environmental protection the use of res and sustainability in order to improve economic and environmental resilience of sids a synergy between local governments and international organizations to promote the investments in res is needed moreover an energy plan that clearly supports the generation of energy from res is recommended finally policy makers should strength their commitment in raising population s awareness toward a green energy generation such synergic interventions will allow sids to achieve a more sustainable development

a market approach to long term security of supply the problem of ensuring that there is enough generation capacity to meet future demand has been an issue in market design since the beginning of the deregulation process although ideally the market itself should be enough to provide adequate investment incentives there are several factors that prevent this result from being achieved and some actual markets have already experienced problems related with a lack of generation capacity a regulatory framework to address this question is presented the procedure is based on an organized market where reliability contracts based on financial call options are auctioned so both their price and their allocation among the different plants are determined through competitive mechanisms this results in a stabilization of the income of the generators and provides a clear incentive for new generation investment with a minimum of regulatory intervention additionally the method represents a market compatible mechanism to hedge demand from the occurrence of high market prices

bidding strategies with fuel supply uncertainty in auctions of long term energy call options this work develops a stochastic optimization model for the creation of a bidding strategy for a generator in an energy call option auction similar to brazil s i e where the bidder can offer both the premium and the strike price the objective of the model is to maximize the bidder s competitiveness while ensuring that the project s target rate of return is achieved with a given probability for example 95 the problem s complexity is compounded by uncertainties in fuel supply and the need to switch between fuels the generators face the conundrum of bidding a single strike price to cover the expenses generated by using multiple types of fuels we address the problem of finding bidding strategies which taking into account uncertainty in fuel supply and risk constraints set the combination of strike price and option premium that ensure a desired risk adjusted return for greenfield dual fuel thermal plants

deregulation of esi and privatization of state electric utilities in thailand abstract in thailand electric supply services have all been taken over by the state and operated under state enterprises since 1968 under a law empowering its monopoly state utilities accumulated assets and built up their manpower to expand and operate the power system to serve the whole country during the time of high growth in power demand in early the1990 s the government initiated a move to privatize state electric utilities the pace of which was firmed up after 1997 the year of the financial crash engagement of independent power producers ipps through the use of long term power purchase agreements ppas for supply of electric power into the system operated by state electric utilities was also initiated from the mid 1990s total capacity of ipps and small power producers spps that sell excess power from cogeneration on to the system rose and by the late 1990s started to create a constraint on system economic dispatch in 1999 the national energy policy council nepc approved a recommendation of international consultants to transform the electric supply industry into a structure similar to the system in the united kingdom the transformation was proposed to precede corporatization and privatization of state electric utilities the objectives of deregulation were to revoke the monopoly in esi to improve transparency in electricity pricing to reduce debts of state enterprises and to improve economic efficiency industry participants have voiced strong objection to the industry model proposed with the change of market structure in uk to the new electricity trading arrangement neta the secretariat of nepc also proposed a new structure similar to neta more acceptance from industry participants have been received for the new structure however it has been assumed that the proposed structure would bring improvement in system reliability drawing investment into power generation in a manner that would be efficient tariff has also been expected to become lower because of the competition in power generation and retail trading the authors argue that for developing countries issues of timely investment in new generation and delivery capacity stable and reasonable price of electricity reliability of power supply fuel diversity and security equitable access of supply and promotion of social equity are important maintaining a functioning esi that meet the broad objectives of providing reliable power supply to serve social and economic development needs could be prioritized over introduction of complete competition in wholesale generation and retailing the authors examine the present situation of the industry and propose a transitional model that would serve the broad objectives and introduce gradual competition in the industry the proposed design would unbundle generation from transmission and retailing it would aso eventually promote intra regional interconnection and electricity trading

london and beyond taking a closer look at urban energy policy this paper considers the field of urban energy policy a neglected yet important topic cities account for approximately two thirds of global primary energy consumption creating significant benefits and costs as a result there has been growing interest in the contribution of cities to global energy policy issues such as climate change but a number of significant questions remain e g how do energy policy processes differ between national and urban scales and how can cities contribute most effectively to global policy goals we present the results of interviews with key stakeholders in london to illustrate some unique features of the urban energy policy cycle we then take a wider view proposing a research agenda with three key goals describing the global variety of urban energy consumption and policy understanding the resulting diversity in responsibility vulnerability and capacity and developing shared procedures and solutions tackling these questions is vital if cities are to contribute fully to current energy policy efforts

regulation and competition issues in thai electricity sector abstract this paper explores the issues related to regulatory reform and liberalisation leading toward competition in the thai electricity sector which is still under the monopoly control of state owned enterprises soes following an overview of the current market structure of the thai electricity sector the process of liberalisation and deregulation that contributes to the uncompetitive market structure under soes control is examined the author asserts that there are problems within the energy commission and the energy industry act be 2550 2007 that contribute to the continuance of an uncompetitive electricity supply possible reforms to the thai electricity regulation are proposed with the aim of creating market competition and efficiency in the thai electricity sector

doing without money a critical assessment of woodford s analysis woodford employs an inter temporal general equilibrium model to examine the properties of the monetary system as it evolves from the use of a physical medium of exchange to an electronic medium he presents a structure in which cash as a means of payment can be made to vanish at the limit but where he claims the price level remains determinate it is shown that woodford s analysis involves fundamental but still widespread conceptual and methodological errors his general equilibrium model does not map into the world of electronic money and his analysis has no implications for the art of central banking copyright 2006 oxford university press

quest for middle east oil the us versus the asia pacific region abstract two very powerful geopolitical factors will decisively determine whether the quest for middle east oil mainly gulf oil could enhance the global oil security or could lead to oil supply disruptions and also instability and conflict in the asia pacific region the two factors are the united states growing dependence on oil imports from the middle east and the asia pacific region s thirst for oil and the increasingly likely chinese dependence on oil from the region the asia pacific countries are increasingly growing concerned about their ability to supply enough oil to fuel future economic growth the region s phenomenal economic growth up to july 1997 and its economic recovery since then and its steadily rising energy needs lend urgency to the question of how the region would meet its considerable energy challenges this paper will endeavour to analyze the impact of this growing dependence on middle east oil on global oil supplies the price of oil and global oil security it will argue that such dependence on a volatile region like the middle east and the perception of scarcer energy resources in the asia pacific region have the potential to lead to conflict in both regions unless these issues are dealt with in geoeconomic rather than geostrategic terms the paper will strongly express the view that potential conflicts can be resolved not by force but through markets and investment and also through the diversification of energy sources and the promotion of alternative energy development and use across the region

fossil fuel dependence and vulnerability of electricity generation case of selected european countries abstract this paper analyses the diversity of fuel mix for electricity generation in selected european countries and investigates how the fuel bill has changed as a share of gdp between 1995 and 2005 the drivers of fuel dependence related vulnerability are determined using laspeyres index decomposition a what if analysis is carried out to analyse the changes in the vulnerability index due to changes in the drivers and a scenario analysis is finally used to investigate the future vulnerability in the medium term the paper finds that the british and the dutch electricity systems are less diversified compared to three other countries analysed the gas dependence of the dutch and italian systems made them vulnerable but the vulnerability increased in all countries in recent years gas price and the level of dependence on gas for power generation mainly influenced the gas vulnerability the united kingdom saw a substantial decline in its coal vulnerability due to a fall in coal price and coal dependence in electricity generation the scenario analysis indicates that uk is likely to face greater gas vulnerability in the future due to increased gas dependence in electricity generation and higher import dependence

oil supply and oil politics deja vu all over again president bush has identified us dependence on imported oil as an urgent energy economic and national security concern the president s energy plan promotes the development of domestic resources based on the assumption that economic incentives and the opening of frontier areas for exploration will increase domestic production if realized this will reduce dependence on imported oil and reduce opec s ability to affect aggregate oil supply and price the evidence suggests however that this policy will not increase significantly us production of crude oil will not reduce significantly opec s influence and it will distort the us macroeconomy even if allowed production from the arctic national wildlife refuge will have a negligible impact on the world oil markets further subsidies to the oil industry will divert resources from other more productive investments conservation and energy efficiency merit greater emphasis in us energy policy given their ability to reduce the use of cost effective and environmentally beneficial ways

high gas dependence for power generation in thailand the vulnerability analysis abstract thailand uses 74 of its natural gas supply for power generation and 70 of its power comes from gas based technology high dependence on natural gas in power generation raises concerns about security of electricity supply that could affect competitiveness of thai manufacturing and other industries at the global level the effect of fuel dependence on security of electricity supply has received less emphasis in the literature given this gap this research examines the economic impact of high dependence on natural gas for power generation in thailand by analyzing the effect of changes in fuel prices including fuel oil and natural gas on electricity tariff in thailand at the same time the research quantifies the vulnerability of the thai economy due to high gas dependence in power generation our research shows that for every 10 change in natural gas price electricity tariff in thailand would change by 3 5 in addition we found that the gas bill for power generation consumed between 1 94 and 3 05 of gross domestic product gdp between 2000 and 2004 and in terms of gdp share per unit of energy gas dependence in power generation is almost similar to that of crude oil import dependence we also found that the basic metal industry being an electricity intensive industry is the most affected industry additionally we find that volatility of gas price is the main factor behind the vulnerability concern the research accordingly simulates two mitigation options of the problem namely reducing gas dependence and increasing efficiency of gas fired power plants where the results show that these methods can reduce the vulnerability of the country from high gas dependence in power generation

a review of interest and prices foundations of a theory of monetary policy by michael woodford this is a review article of interests and prices foundations of a theory of monetary policy princeton university press 2003 by michael woodford

assessing the sustainability challenges for electricity industries in asean newly industrialising countries abstract rapid social and economic progress in fast developing countries such that among the countries in the association of southeast asian nations asean have driven substantial growth in electricity consumption in this region whilst this represents significant societal and economic development it has potentially growing adverse environmental impacts this raises a concern on sustainable development in the electricity sector in this region this study evaluates key sustainability challenges in the electricity industries in the five largest energy consumers in asean indonesia thailand malaysia the philippines and vietnam the 3a s energy sustainability objectives accessibility availability and acceptability are used as the sustainability analytical framework this study also draws together a set of associated indicators and criteria within the analytical framework to analyse the status of the electricity industries in these countries the analysis shows that key sustainability challenges in the asean 5 are attributable to satisfying rapid demand growth enhancing security of electricity supply and mitigating the increase in co2 emissions from electricity generation given the promising resource and technical potential in this region renewable energy emerges as a favourable option to address these challenges however increasing the share of renewable energy in electricity generation requires considerable policy support this study suggests that there is an opportunity for the asean countries to strengthen regional collaborations through experience and resource sharing to enhance sustainability in the electricity industries this study also highlights some of the key issues facing the electricity industry and the need for new generation investment decision support tools which can address these issues