pro competitive effects of trade reform results from a cge model of cameroon abstract how likely is trade liberalization to produce efficiency gains in the presence of imperfect competition scale economies and higher than average wages in the modern sectors all common features in developing economies these features create a potential conflict to the extent that traditional notions of comparative advantage lead us to expect that the modern sectors will be squeezed with liberalization in this paper we investigate this issue by using an applied general equilibrium model calibrated to cameroonian data under perfect competition we find that the welfare effect is a wash since the beneficial consequence of expanded imports is offset by the reduction in employment in the modern high wage sectors under imperfect competition by contrast trade liberalization produces welfare gains of the order of 1 to 2 percent of income the key is the pro competitive effect of liberalization domestic firms in the modern sectors now perceive themselves as facing a higher elasticity of demand which spurs them to increase production

economic and environmental impacts of electricity subsidy reform in kuwait a general equilibrium analysis abstract this paper examined economic and environmental impacts of reducing electricity subsidy in kuwait a social accounting matrix sam was constructed together with energy consumption with co2 emission were compiled and then calibrated with a computable general equilibrium cge model a simulation experiment was conducted by applying a 30 reduction of subsidy to the electricity sector this policy shock was applied to the model in two scenarios in scenario 1 the subsidy reduction was applied and results were compared with the baseline scenario given in the sam this yielded adverse economic effects on most endogenous variables but positive environmental benefits in terms of co2 emission reduction electricity tariff increased by three fold from 2 to 6 fils 0 7 cents to 2 cents per kwh gdp fell by 0 5 and aggregate household welfare declined by 0 8 in scenario 2 subsidy reduction was accompanied with cash transfers to compensate user losses the subsidy deducted from the electricity sector was allocated to users according to their share in base year total expenditure on electricity the results indicated that such transfers would reduce the adverse economic effects co2 emissions fell by 0 5 the gdp and household welfare effects were reversed rising by 0 4 and 0 1 respectively

sectoral adjustment costs and real exchange rate dynamics in a two sector dependent economy abstract this paper develops a two sector model in which intersectoral capital movements involve adjustment costs expressed as capital lost in the transformation process these costs have important consequences for the dynamics of capital accumulation and particularly for real exchange rate dynamics persistent deviations of the real exchange rate from its equilibrium are derived and for plausible values of the adjustment cost parameters are consistent with the observed degree of real exchange rate persistence for low adjustment costs the dynamics are qualitatively similar to those of the standard heckscher ohlin technology for high adjustment costs the model converges to the specific factors model thus our framework includes these two standard models as polar extremes

imperfect competition and returns to scale in a newly industrialising economy a general equilibrium analysis of korean trade policy abstract a general equilibrium analysis of industrial protection in korea is presented using a model which incorporates imperfect competition and scale economies the results suggest that in spite of the strong performance of the korean economy significant additional income of about 7 of gdp might have been generated via lengthened production runs and increased labour productivity in manufacturing had less distortionary policies been used some of the observed distortions may however have been essential to sustain stable political coalitions while this has not been taken into account the analysis nevertheless lends support to the view that industrial organisation is particularly important in analysing trade reforms in newly industrialising countries even though the best reforms are still those which balance incentives within and across sectors

economic social and environmental impacts of fuel subsidies a revisit of malaysia abstract subsidizing energy has been widely used but is economically unfavorable the malaysian government has shown strong intention to reduce energy subsidies recently but face challenges to prepare policy instruments to manage the impact this study develops a computable general equilibrium cge model with breakdown of households by income level to evaluate the potential impacts of removing energy subsidies on the malaysian economy it is shown that removing petroleum and gas subsidy would improve economic efficiency and increase gdp up to 0 65 budget deficit would be largely reduced after removing the petroleum subsidies especially when the saved subsidy cost is not budgeted for other expenditure households would be worse off in most scenarios due to higher price level but some compensation policy could make the lowest income group no worse than baseline without harm the economy the reduction in carbon emissions ranges 1 84 6 63 in different scenarios the simulation results suggest malaysia to completely remove all fuel subsidies and use the saved funding to cut budget deficit or spend on education health and other service sector it is also necessary to set a compensation scheme to minimize public resistance and make sure such scheme is affordable

measuring the welfare effects of reducing a subsidy on a commodity using micro models an application to kuwait s residential demand for electricity abstract this paper provides a conceptual and empirical approach for evaluating the direct benefits and costs that are associated with reforming the price of a subsidized commodity using a micro model the welfare analysis is based on two alternative scenarios a hypothetical percentage increase in the price of the commodity and a hypothetical percentage decrease in the amount of subsidy the latter is considered to be a simultaneous problem in which the exact price of the commodity that reduces consumption and subsequently the subsidy to the specific target level needs to be determined first as a case study the paper utilizes the most recent household expenditure survey in the state of kuwait to estimate residential electricity demand for different household groups i e low middle and high income and employs a partial equilibrium model to measure the welfare implications that may result from a reduction in the electricity subsidy rates the empirical findings show that a small increase in the price of electricity would reduce annual consumption by 4741 million kwh and annual subsidy by us 734 million the results also show that the loss in consumers welfare is approximately us 145 million while the financial and environmental benefits to the society ranges between us 658 million and us 889 million the magnitude of these welfare gains suggests that electricity price reforms combined with a rebate scheme to compensate households for their welfare loss offsetting any political resistance to reform is a win win situation

incidence and impact the regional variation of poverty effects due to fossil fuel subsidy reform since fossil fuel subsidy reforms can induce significant distributional shifts and price shocks effective compensation and social protection programs are crucial based on the statistical simulation model by araar and verme 2012 this study estimates the regional variability of direct welfare effects of removing fuel subsidies in nigeria uncompensated subsidy removal is estimated to increase the national poverty rate by 3 4 on average however uniform cash compensation that appears effective at the national average is found to fail to mitigate price shocks in 16 of 37 states thus putting livelihoods and public support for reforms at risk states that are estimated to incur the largest welfare shocks coincide with hotspots of civil unrest following nigeria s 2012 subsidy reform attempt the study illustrates how regionally disaggregated compensation can be revenue neutral and maintain or reduce pre reform poverty rates in all states overall it highlights the importance of understanding differences in vulnerability and designing tailored social protection schemes which ensure public support for subsidy reforms

the unequal benefits of fuel subsidies a review of evidence for developing countries summary this paper reviews evidence on the impact of fuel subsidy reform on household welfare in developing countries on average the burden of subsidy reform is substantial and is approximately neutrally distributed across income groups a 0 25 decrease in the per liter subsidy results in a 5 decrease in income for all groups more than half of this impact arises from the indirect impact on prices of other goods and services consumed by households fuel subsidies are a costly approach to protecting the poor due to substantial benefit leakage to higher income groups in absolute terms the top income quintile captures six times more in subsidies than the bottom

booming sector and de industrialisation in a small open economy this paper presents a theoretical analysis of the dutch disease the phenomenon whereby a boom in one traded goods sector squeezes porfitability in other traded goods sectors both by directly bi

the long run macroeconomic impacts of fuel subsidies abstract many developing and emerging market countries have subsidies on fuel products using a small open economy model with a non traded sector i show how these subsidies impact the steady state levels of macroeconomic aggregates such as consumption labor supply and aggregate welfare these subsidies can lead to crowding out of non oil consumption inefficient inter sectoral allocations of labor and other distortions in macroeconomic variables across steady states aggregate welfare is reduced by these subsidies this result holds for a country with no oil production and for a net exporter of oil the distortions in relative prices introduced by the subsidy create most of the welfare losses how the subsidy is financed is of secondary importance aggregate welfare is significantly higher if the subsidies are replaced by lump sum transfers of equal value

the benefits of r d and breadth in innovation strategies a comparison of finnish service and manufacturing firms this empirical study compares the determinants of innovation in manufacturing and services through descriptive and regression analyses of sales from innovative products and services a particular focus is on the effects of r d investments and breadth in knowledge sourcing and innovation objectives the results suggest that contrary to earlier research r d investments play a statistically and economically significant role in service innovation we suggest that this results from the growing engagement of service firms in regular r d activity both service and manufacturing firms also benefit from breadth in external knowledge sourcing strategies in contrast breadth in terms of pursuing parallel innovation objectives appears to have detrimental effects on innovation in service industries we interpret the latter results through reference to service firms r d management capabilities managing multiple innovation projects is challenging and some service firms may not have accumulated the requisite managerial processes and capabilities to benefit from these strategies the available data provide support for this conjecture the detrimental effects of breadth in innovation objectives are significantly mitigated by regular r d activities copyright 2012 the author 2012 published by oxford university press on behalf of associazione icc all rights reserved oxford university press

impacts of energy subsidy reform on the malaysian economy and transportation sector malaysia is paying a high level of subsidies on the consumption of energy about 5 of its gdp therefore reforming the energy subsidies as planned by the government will have a significant impact on household welfare and energy intensive sectors such as the transport sector this study employs a computable general equilibrium cge model to highlight the transmission channels through which the removal of energy subsidies affects the domestic economy the findings show that the shock increases real gdp and real investment while decreasing malaysian total exports and imports the removal of energy subsidies also decreases the aggregate energy demand and consequently decreases the level of carbon emissions in the malaysian economy in addition households experience significant falls in their consumption and welfare the transport sector is significantly influenced through an increase in production costs due to an increase in the prices of intermediate inputs the total output and total exports of the whole transport sector decrease while its imports increase in addition the use of all kinds of transport by households decreases significantly the malaysian energy subsidy reform leads to an initial decrease in co2 emissions and demand for electricity gas and petroleum products in the entire transport sector

household welfare implications of fossil fuel subsidy reforms in developing countries abstract with over 200 countries reaching an agreement with the stated aim of restricting global warming to well below 2 c above pre industrial levels the most comprehensive climate change agreement was recently signed though most of the hard work lies ahead it marks an important first step for the collective global community to address climate change fossil fuels continue to remain one of the largest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions and for many developing countries high levels fossil fuels continues to enable an overconsumption of fossil fuels given the sensitivity of governments to subsidy reforms this study examines the household welfare implications of the removal of fossil fuel subsidies it finds that while welfare implications are unambiguously positive for government the results are mixed for private households although in an overwhelming majority of cases the results are positive however even in the cases where the welfare implications are negative for private households we find that it is possible for governments to carry out the reforms in such a way as to be welfare improving to households incomes by compensating them with some of the fiscal savings gained from the subsidy reform

energy subsidy reform for growth and equity in egypt the approach matters abstract phasing out energy subsidies is high on the agenda of policymakers in several middle eastern and north african countries the impact of such reform can vary widely depending on the country and policy this paper contributes to the existing literature by examining the phasing out of energy subsidies in egypt under alternative economic scenarios in particular we consider egypt s short and long term economic adjustment under different assumptions on labor market flexibility spending options of subsidy savings and alternative social protection measures results from economy wide model simulations suggest that energy subsidy cuts may hamper economic growth in the short term but depending on the policy measure will improve growth perspectives and household welfare in the longer term yet findings also point to likely adverse impacts of the reform on household consumption in the short and longer run to counteract such negative impacts targeted social protection measures should be continued and scaled up in parallel with the phasing out of energy subsidies

a dynamic macroeconomic model for kuwait analysis of the medium term path abstract a dynamic cge model was constructed to analyse the medium term path of the kuwaiti economy the static part of the model is demand driven except for the oil sector it includes four labour markets with a constrained kuwaiti labour supply and imports that are treated as a part of composite commodities the dynamic part captures the medium term changes in the capital stock population size and government assets held abroad the reference path suggests that gdp consumption and exports will grow less than the projected population size with a rapid decrease in per capita foreign assets and a reduction in the household income per kuwaiti

diversification effects of energy subsidy reform in oil exporters illustrations from kuwait abstract for oil exporters energy subsidy reform and economic diversification are critical policy responses to recent fundamental changes in the global oil market and oil price declines yet the relationship between them is little understood this article investigates linkages between energy subsidy reform and accelerating economic diversification away from hydrocarbons in a low oil price environment using illustrations from kuwait it employs an economy wide general equilibrium model with oligopolistic industrial structure the first of its kind for an economy in the middle east and north africa that embodies unique elements of the country s economic structure oil dependence public sector dominance subsidies sovereign wealth funds industrial collusive pricing behaviour and guest workers the article argues that contrary to common popular discourse kuwait s economy has a diversified economic base but this base fails to diversify export or government revenue needed for economic sustainability results show that weak economic diversification in oil exporters with a similar economic structure is not primarily due to dutch disease as dominant in the literature but to economic constraints and distortions that impair structural change and exacerbate overdependence on hydrocarbons labour and competition reforms relax some constraints achieving large efficiency gains that extend economy wide and can expand non energy tradable sectors the analysis has important policy implications first the potential role of pricing regulation in small economies in moderating economic impacts of negative oil shocks second in oil economies characterized by pervasive oligopolies microeconomic reform can be a channel to achieve efficiency and better diversification effects of subsidy reform

export diversification what s behind the hump hy should export diversification be taken as a policy objective per se there are two reasons that it should not first according to ricardo countries should specialize not diversify second the heckscher ohlin model implies that export patterns are largely determined by endowments so if anything we should worry about factor accumulation not diversification yet export diversification is a constant preoccupation of policymakers in developing countries as de ferranti et al 2002 note a recurrent preoccupation of latin american policymakers is that their natural riches produce a highly concentrated structure of export revenues which then leads to economic volatility and lower growth p 38 the notion that export patterns are fully determined by endowments is of course naive the relationship of endowments trade and growth is a complex and imperfectly understood one intra industry trade models showed long ago that many factors other than endowments including market failures and policies can affect trade patterns more recently hausmann hwang and rodrik 2007 argued that export patterns can display path dependence in the presence of externalities

top wealth shares in the uk over more than a century abstract recent research highlighted controversy about the evolution of concentration of personal wealth in this paper we provide new evidence about the long run evolution of top wealth shares for the united kingdom the new series covers a long period from 1895 to the present and has a different point of departure from the previous literature we start with the analysis of the distribution of estates left at death we find that the application to the estate data of mortality multipliers to yield estimates of wealth among the living does not substantially change the degree of concentration over much of the period both in the uk and us allowing inferences to be made for years when this method cannot be applied the results show that wealth concentration in the uk remained relatively constant during the first wave of globalization but then decreased dramatically in the period from 1914 to 1979 the uk went from being more unequal in terms of wealth than the us to being less unequal however the decline in uk wealth concentration came to an end around 1980 and since then there is evidence of an increase in top shares notably in the distribution of wealth excluding housing in recent years we investigate the triangulating evidence provided by data on capital income concentration and on reported super fortunes

oil windfalls and export diversification in oil producing countries evidence from oil booms abstract this paper examines the factors behind export diversification in oil countries specifically we investigate the impact of oil booms on export diversification through an empirical framework the paper finds that economy s export structure before the oil boom determines whether oil windfalls might affect the diversification process thus an oil boom negatively affects export diversification only if countries initially exhibit low levels of diversification in countries with a high level of diversification before the boom an oil boom has no impact on diversification these results are based on a large sample of 134 countries and are robust to various sensitivity analyses they are corroborated with data from the manufacturing sector which show that oil booms only reduce diversification in countries with a small manufacturing sector prior to the boom

oil price collapse and challenges to economic transformation of saudi arabia a time series analysis abstract this paper studies the impact of oil price changes on economic growth in saudi arabia to measure its dependency on the crude oil sector to this end an on off threshold regression is specified to allow the oil gdp relationship to be asymmetric nonlinear and time varying with regard to the business cycle phases further we empirically test the diversification hypothesis put forward by the national transformation program saudi vision 2030 to check whether the equity energy investment initiative could boost economic growth in saudi arabia first our findings confirm the contribution of the oil sector to economic growth in the country but also show that the oil saudi economy relationship exhibits nonlinearity and threshold effects as the impact of oil price varies per regime depending on the state of the market second in line with the vision 2030 expectations we are in favor of transforming the economy and opening its equity market we also quantify a positive and significant impact of equity investment on the saudi arabian economy further this diversification route will stimulate a beneficial oil effect on the real economy