renegotiation on incomplete procurement contracts abstractthis article examines the impact of incomplete contracts on procurement costs in road construction auctions ex ante contracts in these auctions often fail to specify all of the potential construction contingencies and consequently changes in scope are necessary after construction begins using vermont road construction contract data this study finds evidence that there is a statistically significant difference in costs of firms between auctions with and without extra work adjustments substantial adaptation costs are responsible for the higher procurement outlays in incomplete contract i also find that bidders inflate their bids to incorporate risk premiums in incomplete contracts however my estimates suggest that this bidding behaviour does not affect their profit margins

deciding between competition and collusion we develop an approach to identify and test for bid rigging in procurement auctions first we introduce a general auction model with asymmetric bidders second we study the problem of identie cation in our model we state a set of conditions that are both necessary and sufe cient for a distribution of bids to be generated by a model with competitive bidding third we discuss how to elicit a prior distribution over a e rm s structural cost parameters from industry experts given this prior distri bution we use bayes s theorem to compare competitive and collusive models of industry equilibrium finally we apply our methodology to a data set of bidding by construction e rms in the midwest the techniques we propose are not computationally demanding use e exible functional forms and can be programmed using most standard statistical packages

optimal nonparametric estimation of first price auctions this paper proposes a general approach and a computationally convenient estimation procedure for the structural analysis of auctioni data considering first price sealed bid auction models within the independent private value paradigm we show that the underlying distribution of bidders private values is identified from observed bids and the number of actual bidders without any parametric assumptions using the theoiy of minimax we establish the best rate of uniform convergence at which the latent density of private values can be estimated nonparametrically from available data we then propose a two step kernel based estimator that converges at the optimal rate

empirical implications of equilibrium bidding in first price symmetric common value auctions this paper studies federal auctions for wildcat leases on the outer continental shelf from 1954 to 1970 these are leases where bidders privately acquire at some cost noisy but equally informative signals about the amount of oil and gas that may be present we develop tests of rational and equilibrium bidding in a common values model that are implemented using data on bids and ex post values we also use data on tract location and exposr values to test the comparative static prediction that bidders may bid less aggressively in common value auctions when they expect more competition we find that bidders are aware of the winner s curse and their bidding is largely consistent with equilibrium

investigating bid preferences at low price sealed bid auctions with endogenous participation abstract at procurement auctions with bid preferences qualified firms are treated special a common policy involves scaling the bids of preferred firms by a discount factor for the purposes of evaluation only introducing such an asymmetry has three effects first preferred firms may inflate their bids yet still win the auction second nonpreferred firms may bid more aggressively than in the absence of preferences third the preference policy can affect participation for different cost distributions we solve numerically for the equilibrium bid functions under different discounts and then simulate behaviour our approach allows us to quantify the relative importance of the three effects we find that the participation effect is relatively unimportant and in most cases a positive cost minimizing preference rate exists download download video 34mb video 1

nonparametric estimation of sample selection models sample selection models provide an important way of accounting for economic decisions that combine discrete and continuous choices and of correcting for nonrandom sampling nonparametric estimators for these models are developed in this paper these can be used for estimating shapes and important economic quantities as in standard nonparametnc regression endogeneity of regressors of interest is allowed for series estimators for these models are developed which are useful for imposing additivity restnctions that arise from selection corrections convergence rates and asymptotic normality results are derived an application to returns to schooling among australian young females is given

occupational choice and the process of development this paper models economic development as a process of institutional transformation by focusing on the interplay between agents occupational decisions and the distribution of wealth because of capital market imperfections poor agents choose working for a wage over self employment and wealthy agents become entrepreneurs who monitor workers only with sufficient inequality however will there be employment contracts otherwise there is either subsistence or self employment thus in static equilibrium the occupational structure depends on distribution since the latter is itself endogenous we demonstrate the robustness of this result by extending the model dynamically and studying examples in which initial wealth distributions have long run effects in one case the economy develops either widespread cottage industry self employment or factory production employment contracts depending on the initial distribution in the other example it develops into prosperity or stagnation

subcontracting and the survival of plants in the road construction industry a panel quantile regression analysis this paper investigates how subcontracting parts of contracted work shapes entrants success and survival we find that newly developed quantile regression approaches can be adapted to study survival of firms competing for government contracts in road construction the method is applied on a data set that includes patterns of firm entry exit and auction related information we find an apparent increase in the business life of firms who subcontract out part of their projects in texas these subcontracting effects appear to be more pronounced for firms with few or no options outside the industry and among firms who contract out part of their work to disadvantaged business enterprises

borrowing constraints human capital accumulation and growth abstract borrowing constraints increase aggregate savings and therefore may increase growth this paper argues however that by reducing human capital accumulation borrowing constraints also have negative effects on growth these effects are discussed in an overlapping generations model with endogenous growth empirical evidence for oecd and developing countries lend support to the main predictions of the model

public versus private investment in human capital endogenous growth and income inequality in this paper we present an overlapping generations model with heterogeneous agents in which human capital investment through formal schooling is the engine of growth we use simple functional forms for preferences technologies and income distribution to highlight the distinction between economies with public education and those with private education we find that income inequality declines more quickly under public education on the other hand private education yields greater per capita incomes unless the initial income inequality is sufficiently high we also find that societies will choose public education if a majority of agents have incomes below average

working over time dynamic inconsistency in real effort tasks experimental tests of dynamically inconsistent time preferences have largely relied on choices over time dated monetary rewards several recent studies have failed to nd the standard patterns of present bias however such monetary studies contain oftendiscussed confounds in this paper we sidestep these confounds and investigate choices over consumption real eort in a longitudinal experiment we pair this eort study with a companion monetary discounting study we conrm very limited time inconsistency in monetary choices however subjects show considerably more present bias in eort furthermore present bias in the allocation of work has predictive power for demand of a meaningfully binding commitment device therefore our ndings validate a key implication of models of dynamic inconsistency with corresponding policy implications

raising primary school enrolment in developing countries the relative importance of supply and demand abstract few policies are as universally accepted as raising primary school enrolment in developing countries but the policy levers for achieving this goal are not straightforward this paper merges household survey data with detailed school supply characteristics from official sources in order to estimate the relative impact of demand and supply side determinants of rural primary school enrolment in mozambique policy simulations based on a set of plausible interventions show that in rural mozambique building more schools or raising adult literacy will have a larger impact on primary school enrolment rates than interventions that raise household income when relative costs are considered adult literacy campaigns are nearly 10 times more cost effective than the income intervention and 1 5 to 2 5 times better than building more schools

business cycles and long run growth in this survey we discuss the effect of macroeconomic fluctuations on long run growth from both a theoretical and empirical perspective we emphasize the opportunity cost approach which states that firms will intertemporally substitute productivity enhancing activities for regular production activity during recessions we provide aggregate evidence in favor of the opportunity cost approach copyright 1997 by oxford university press

studying optimal paternalism illustrated by a model of sin taxes the classical economic approach to policy analysis assumes that people always respond optimally to the costs and benefits of their available choices a great deal of evidence suggests however that in some contexts people make errors that lead them not to behave in their own best interests economic policy prescriptions might change once we recognize that humans are humanly rational rather than superhumanly rational and in particular it may be fruitful for economists to study the possible advantages of paternalistic policies that help people make better choices we propose an approach for studying optimal paternalism that follows naturally from standard assumptions and methods of economic theory write down assumptions about the distribution of rational and irrational types of agents about the available policy instruments and about the government s information about agents and then investigate which policies achieve the most efficient outcomes in other words economists ought to treat the analysis of optimal paternalism as a mechanism design problem when some agents might be boundedly rational this approach has many advantages first and foremost by explicitly addressing when and how people do and don t pursue their own best interests economists will be better able to contribute to policy debates to contribute to debates over regulating private financial decisions we must study whether financial decisions are based on fallacious statistical reasoning and whether self control problems lead people to borrow too heavily to contribute to debates over teenage smoking we must study whether teenagers become smokers against their long run best interest economists will and should be ignored if we continue to insist that it is axiomatic that constantly trading stocks or accumulating consumer debt or becoming a heroin addict must be optimal for the people doing these things merely because they have chosen to do it a second advantage of our approach is that it forces us to look for the best feasible policy our

incentives and uncertainty an empirical analysis of the impact of demand on innovation we study the impact of demand on innovation by focusing on a sample of small and medium sized enterprises in several industries and european countries we analyse how demand stimulates innovation by providing economic incentives and reducing uncertainty considering the size of the market as a proxy for the presence of demand we find support for the idea that the presence of incentives stimulates innovation this is particularly true for process innovation in considering interaction with customers as a way to reduce uncertainty we find that firms that see customers as the most important sources of information for both innovation ideas and completion tend to introduce product innovations firm size r d expenditure and sectoral effects also matter

measuring investment in education historic debates about the measurement of capital are even more complicated in the case of education and human capital as extensive research demonstrates education resources are not consistently related to student performance in existing elementary and secondary schools this inefficiency in public schools implies that spending and resource measures do not accurately capture variations in school quality this finding then has clear implications for both education policy and economic research because school inputs are poor policy instruments an alternative policy focus that appears much more productive is performance incentives related to student achievement

tax incidence when individuals are time inconsistent the case of cigarette excise taxes abstract one of the most cogent criticisms of excise taxes is their regressivity with lower income groups spending a much larger share of their income on goods such as cigarettes than do higher income groups we argue that traditional quantity based measures of incidence are only appropriate under a very restrictive time consistent model of consumption of sin goods a model that is much more consistent with existing evidence on smoking decisions is a time inconsistent formulation where excise taxes on cigarettes serve a self control function that is valued by smokers who would like to quit but cannot this self control function benefits lower income groups more since they have a significantly higher price sensitivity of smoking calibrations show that as a result cigarette taxes are much less regressive than previously assumed and are even progressive for a wide variety of parameter values

taxing sin goods and subsidizing health care we consider a two period model in the first period individuals consume two goods one is sinful and the other is not the sin good brings pleasure but has a detrimental effect on second period health and individuals tend to underestimate this effect in the second period individuals can devote part of their saving to improve their health status and thus compensate for the damage caused by their sinful consumption we consider two alternative specifications concerning this second period health care decision either individuals acknowledge that they have made a mistake in the first period out of myopia or ignorance or they persist in ignoring the detrimental effect of their sinful consumption we study the optimal linear taxes on sin good consumption saving and health care expenditures for a paternalistic social planner we compare those taxes in the two specifications we show under which circumstances the first best outcome can be decentralized and we study the second best taxes when saving is unobservable

unequal societies income distribution and the social contract this paper develops a theory of inequality and the social contract aiming to explain how countries with similar economic and political fundamentals can sustain such different systems of social insurance fiscal redistribution and education finance as those of the united states and western europe with imperfect credit and insurance markets some redistributive policies can improve ex ante welfare and this implies that their political support tends to decrease with inequality conversely with credit constraints lower redistribution translates into more persistent inequality hence the potential for multiple steady states with mutually reinforcing high inequality and low redistribution or vice versa

randomized evaluations of educational programs in developing countries some lessons this paper reviews recent randomized evaluations of educational programs in developing countries including programs to increase school participation to provide educational inputs and to reform education it then extracts some lessons for education policy and for the practice and political economy of randomized evaluations

r d and internal finance a panel study of small firms in high tech industries since joseph schumpeter economists have argued that internal finance should be an important determinant of r d expenditures yet almost without exception previous empirical studies have not found evidence of such a relation using newly available data the authors investigate this puzzle with a panel of 179 small firms in high tech industries under each estimation strategy they employ the authors find an economically large and statistically significant relationship between r d investment and internal finance their results are consistent with the view that because of capital market imperfections the flow of internal finance is the principal determinant of the rate at which small high tech firms acquire technology through r d copyright 1994 by mit press

income distribution and macroeconomics this paper analyzes the role of wealth distribution in macroeconomics through investment in human capital it is shown that in the presence of credit markets imperfections and indivisibilities in investment in human capital the initial distribution of wealth affects aggregate output and investment both in the short and in the long run as there are multiple steady states this paper therefore provides an additional explanation for the persistent differences in per capita output across countries furthermore the paper shows that cross country differences in macroeconomic adjustment to aggregate shocks can be attributed among other factors to differences in wealth and income distribution across countries

impatience incentives and obesity this paper explores the relationship between time preferences economic incentives and body mass index bmi using data from the 2006 national longitudinal survey of youth we rst show that greater impatience increases bmi and the likelihood of obesity even after controlling for demographic human capital occupational and nancial characteristics as well as risk preference next we provide evidence of an interaction

das human kapital a theory of the demise of the class structure this paper suggests that the demise of the capitalists workers class structure was a socio economic transformation orchestrated by the capitalists in reaction to the increasing importance of human capital in sustaining their profit rates physical capital accumulation in the process of industrialization enhanced the importance of human capital in production and generated incentives for capitalists to support the provision of public education for the masses triggering the demise of the existing class structure the implications of the theory are consistent with the voting patterns on england s education reform of 1902

human capital and growth abstract this paper describes a growth model with the property that human capital accumulation can account for all observed growth the model is shown to be consistent with evidence on individual productivities as measured by census earnings data the central hypothesis is that we learn more when we interact with more productive people

affirmative action and the utilization of minority and women owned businesses in highway procurement i introduction affirmative action programs in public procurement are among the more important government programs intended to advance self employment opportunities for minorities and women in 2002 6 75 of federal procurement dollars were awarded to disadvantaged business enterprises dbes through the small business administration and preferential treatment for minority firms is a common feature of many state and local government agencies recent court decisions and state measures have reduced the scope of and in some settings eliminated affirmative action programs based on race or gender which has given renewed importance to understanding the role of affirmative action in the success of self employed minorities and women the use of affirmative action is particularly widespread in the highway procurement industry since the late 1970s and early 1980s most states have employed affirmative action to award contracts to minority owned firms and since 1982 the federal highway administration fhwa has required states use affirmative action in awarding projects using federal funds in 1998 states awarded 14 6 billion of construction and repair contracts using federal funds of which 1 9 billion was awarded to firms owned by minorities and women as blanchflower and wainright 2005 note in the intervening years states have increasingly been able to use race neutral measures to meet goals which has had an adverse effect on utilization of minority owned firms understanding the effects of affirmative action in this industry is made important by the significance of the public sector according to the 2002 census of industries 72 6 of the revenue earned by firms in the highway street and bridge construction industry was from government owned projects as a result changes in public procurement policy will have a strong effect on firms in the highway construction industry despite the importance of affirmative action in this industry our understanding of the effects of these programs is limited states generally use percentage goals for the participation of minority owned subcontractors by prime contractors past research has established the response of dbe utilization to large episodic changes in affirmative action such as the elimination by certain states or cities of affirmative action programs blanchflower and wainright 2005 however little evidence exists regarding the intensive margin of affirmative action in public procurement that is as participation goals are raised or lowered what is the response of the utilization of dbes generally and minority and women owned firms specifically higher dbe goals do not necessarily raise the utilization of firms owned by minorities and women for two reasons first the dbe goal may not be binding in which case the marginal effect of small changes to the goal would be zero second goals for the utilization of dbes are often not perfectly enforced for instance a contractor facing a requirement to subcontract a fraction of a contract to dbes can skirt this requirement by documenting a good faith effort to employ firms owned by minorities and women the goal of this paper is to provide new evidence regarding the effectiveness of affirmative action programs in highway procurement at increasing purchases from firms owned by minorities and women two sources of variation are employed to answer this question the first is variation in dbe goals across states over time and the second is variation across projects within a state i begin by examining state level data regarding affirmative action goals and dbe utilization over the entire history of the fhwa s affirmative action program i utilize changes in affirmative action goals over time within states to identify the effect of affirmative action intensity on the level of dbe purchases i find that increasing goals for the utilization of dbe goals substantially raise the utilization of minority owned business enterprises mbes

price adjustment policies in procurement contracting an analysis of bidding behavior the fluctuations in fuel prices over the past decade led a number of government agencies to introduce price adjustment clauses in procurement contracting those clauses were primarily designed to reduce contractors uncertainty without considering the impact of such initiatives on bidding and the budget we analyze a newly constructed detailed panel of observations on bids for construction contracts and compare bidding behavior across periods and projects and across items within projects estimates from a difference in differences approach indicate that bidding becomes more aggressive and less dispersed after the implementation of this policy the difference is more pronounced when we consider itemized bids than overall project bids alternative techniques of regression discontinuity and nonparametric estimation are applied and yield consistent results

the influence of market demand upon innovation a critical review of some recent empirical studies abstract a number of recent empirical studies of technical change at the level of the individual firm have concluded that market demand is the dominant influence upon the innovation process calling forth innovations in market economies the pace of innovation in the private sector heavily influences the growth of national output and productivity and these studies and their conclusions have therefore received much attention having been extensively quoted in discussions of appropriate government policy for the encouragement of innovation this paper reviews a number of these studies and concludes that their findings and the interpretations of their findings in the secondary literature are seriously flawed and in many cases invalid the proposition that market demand governs the innovation process is by no means conclusively demonstrated in these studies and they are therefore inadequate and inappropriate guides for the formulation of policy most of the studies examined employ a working definition of demand factors which is so broad as to embrace a range of possible influences upon innovation which should more properly be classified elsewhere the concept of demand utilized in these studies bears little resemblance to the more restrictive and precise definition of market demand found in economics in addition the phenomena analyzed in these studies are a very heterogeneous lot the studies do not address identical empirical questions and their findings are as a result neither uniform nor unambiguous both demand and supply side influences are crucial to understanding the innovation process and it is the exclusive preoccupation with only one set of these forces which is criticized in this paper some implications of the criticism for government policy toward innovation are discussed in the conclusion

the economics of schooling production and efficiency in public schools n recent years public and professional interest in schools has been heightened by a spate of reports many of them critical of current school policy these policy documents have added to persistent and long standing concerns about the cost effectiveness and fairness of the current school structure and have made schooling once again a serious public issue as in the past however any renewed interest in education is likely to be short lived doomed to dissipate as frustration over the inability of policy to improve school practice sets in this frustration about school policy relates directly to knowledge about the educational production process and in turn to underlying research on schools although the educational process has been extensively researched clear policy prescriptions flowing from this research have been difficult to derive 2 there exists however a consistency to the research findings that does have an immediate application to school policy schools differ dramatically in quality

adolescent time preferences predict lifetime outcomes this study investigates the relationship between time preferences and lifetime social and economic outcomes we use a swedish longitudinal data set that links information from a large survey on children s time preferences at age 13 to administrative registers spanning over five decades our results indicate a substantial adverse relationship between high discount rates and school performance health labour supply and lifetime income males and high ability children gain significantly more from being future oriented these discrepancies are largest regarding outcomes later in life we also show that the relationship between time preferences and long run outcomes operates through early human capital investments

government procurement and international trade abstract we model the bidding for a government contract in which there is imperfect competition each bidder is better informed about his own costs than either his rival bidders or the government and the distribution of the domestic firms costs differs from the distribution of foreign firms costs because of comparative advantage effects we find that the government minimizes its expected procurement cost by operating a price preference policy not necessarily purchasing from the lowest bidder

appropriability and commercialization evidence from mit inventions the effects of appropriability on invention have been well studied but there has been little analysis of the effect of appropriability on the commercialization of existing inventions exploiting a database of 805 attempts by private firms to commercialize inventions licensed from the massachusetts institute of technology mit between 1980 and 1996 we explore the influence of several appropriability mechanisms on the commercialization and termination of projects to develop products based on university inventions our central hypothesis is that the relationship between a licensee s decision to either terminate or commercialize the invention is driven by the current market value of the invention as well as the option value of delaying its commercialization we use a competing risks framework that allows for nonparametric heterogeneity and correlated risks we find that better appropriability in the sense of more effective patent strength and secrecy has a strong negative effect on the hazard of license termination the effectiveness of learning has a strong positive effect on the hazard of technology commercialization while lead time has a negative effect

optimal sin taxes abstract we investigate sin taxes on unhealthy items such as fatty foods that people may by their own reckoning consume too much of we employ a standard optimal taxation framework but replace the standard assumption that all consumers have 100 self control with an assumption that some consumers may have some degree of self control problems we show that imposing taxes on unhealthy items and returning the proceeds to consumers can generally improve total social surplus because such taxes counteract over consumption by consumers with self control problems while at the same time they naturally redistribute income to consumers with no self control problems who consume less such taxes can even create pareto improvements finally we demonstrate with some simple numerical examples that even if the population exhibits relatively few self control problems optimal taxes can still be large

macroeconomic conditions and the determinants of commercialisation in this paper we focus on the effects of macroeconomic conditions on commercialisation using survey data on the activities of australian inventors who attempted to commercialise 3 736 inventions over the period 1986 2005 we find evidence that macroeconomic conditions have a pro cyclical effect on commercialisation activities such a finding has important policy implications since it suggests that recessions have both short term effects on employment income and long term effects on productivity however the magnitude of the supply side effects the cost of finance and level of public sector research are estimated to be larger than the growth in aggregate or industry demand copyright the author 2010 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

school subsidies for the poor evaluating the mexican progresa poverty program abstract this paper evaluates how the progresa program which provides poor mothers in rural mexico with education grants has affected enrollment poor children who reside in communities randomly selected to participate in the initial phase of the progresa are compared to those who reside in other control communities pre program comparisons check the randomized design and double difference estimators of the program s effect on the treated are calculated by grade and sex probit models are also estimated for the probability that a child is enrolled controlling for additional characteristics of the child their parents local schools and community and for sample attrition to evaluate the sensitivity of the program estimates these estimates of program short run effects on enrollment are extrapolated to the lifetime schooling and the earnings of adults to approximate the internal rate of return on the public schooling subsidies as they increase expected private wages

what drives business research and development r d intensity across organisation for economic co operation and development oecd countries this paper empirically investigates the potential determinants of business sector r d intensity using a panel of oecd countries for the period of 1975 2002 with data measured as five year averages estimates using a system gmm estimator controlling for endogeneity show a high degree of persistence in business sector r d expenditures tax incentives for r d have a significant and positive impact on business r d spending regardless of the specification and estimation techniques furthermore we find that expenditures for r d performed by universities are significantly positively related to business enterprise sector expenditures on r d indicating that public sector r d and private r d are complements direct r d subsidies and the high tech export share are significantly positively related to business sector r d intensity but these effects are only significant using the first differenced gmm estimator the static fixed effects results show that countries characterised by strong patent rights appear to hav

over savings and hyperbolic discounting abstract hyperbolic discounting models are widely seen as implying that consumers do not save enough in accordance with the observed low rates of savings of some households this paper qualifies this view by showing that hyperbolic consumers may oversave in the short run the result extends to uncertainty on future income and does not depend on whether preferences are present biased or future biased a generalized comparative statics analysis of self control is introduced and its relationship to the analysis of uncertainty on discount factors is emphasized

disadvantaged business enterprise goals in government procurement contracting an analysis of bidding behavior and costs programs that encourage the participation of disadvantaged business enterprises dbe as subcontractors have been a part of government procurement auctions for over three decades in this paper we examine the impact of a program that requires prime contractors to subcontract out a portion of a highway procurement project to dbe firms we study how dbe subcontracting requirements affect bidding behavior in federally funded projects within a symmetric independent private value framework we use the equilibrium bidding function to obtain the cost distribution of firms undertaking projects either with or without subcontracting goals we then use nonparametric estimation methods to uncover and compare the cost of firm bidding on a class of asphalt projects related to surface treatment in texas the analysis shows little differences in the cost structure between projects that have subcontracting goals and those that do not

unequal opportunities and human capital formation abstract this paper develops a tractable heterogeneous agents general equilibrium model where individuals have different endowments of the factors that complement the schooling process the paper explores the relationship between inequality of opportunities inequality of outcomes and aggregate efficiency in human capital formation using numerical solutions we study how the endogenous variables of the model respond to two different interventions in the distribution of opportunities a mean preserving spread and a change in the support the results suggest that a higher degree of inequality of opportunities is associated with lower average level of human capital a lower fraction of individuals investing in human capital higher inequality in the distribution of human capital and higher wage inequality in particular the model does not predict a trade off between aggregate efficiency in human capital formation as measured by the average level of human capital in the economy and equality of opportunity

is demand pulled innovation equally important in different groups of firms previous empirical literature has tested the demand pull hypothesis and found that innovation may be driven by output using a balanced panel of 216 italian manufacturing firms 1995 2000 and checking for the path dependent nature of r d we find a role of sales in inducing r d however the demand pull effect plays a varying role for different sub samples of firms exporting firms liquidity constrained firms not subsidised firms and those not heading a group seem to be sensitive to sales in deciding r d these results have been obtained using a least squares dummy variable corrected estimator a recent panel data technique suitable for small samples

equity and efficiency in human capital investment the local connection a general model of community formation and human capital accumulation with social spillovers and decentralized school funding is used to analyse the causes of economic segregation and its consequences for equity and efficiency significant polarization arises from minor differences in endowments preferences or access to capital markets this makes income inequality more persistent across generations but the same need not be true for wealth equilibrium stratification tends to be excessive resulting in low aggregate surplus whether state equalization of school resources can remedy these problems hinges on how purchased social and family inputs interact in education and in mobility decisions

asymmetry in first price auctions with affiliated private values collusion and heterogeneity across firms may introduce asymmetry in bidding games a major difficulty in asymmetric auctions is that the bayesian nash equilibrium strategies are solutions of an intractable system of differential equations we propose a simple method for estimating asymmetric first price auctions with affiliated private values considering two types of bidders we show that these differential equations can be rewritten using the observed bid distribution we establish the identification of the model characterize its theoretical restrictions and propose a two step non parametric estimation procedure for estimating the private value distributions an empirical analysis of joint bidding in ocs auctions is provided copyright 2003 john wiley sons ltd

investment in education do economic volatility and credit constraints matter abstract recent research has focused on the effects of economic volatility on the investment in physical capital this paper shows that economic volatility and the lack of financial markets have a negative effect also on the accumulation of human capital our evidence drawn from cross country and panel regressions is that average secondary enrollment in the period 1970 1972 is negatively affected by the lack of financial markets income or employment volatility and income inequality our results are robust to different specifications of volatility the inclusion of public expenditure in education country specific effects and different sets of regressors

r d expenditure in g7 countries and the implications for endogenous fluctuations and growth abstract the literature on endogenous growth cycles predicts countercyclical r d expenditure aggregate r d expenditure in g7 countries from 1973 to 2000 tends to be procyclical implications for future theoretical research are discussed

identification and estimation of auction models with unobserved heterogeneity in many procurement auctions the bidders unobserved costs depend both on a common shock and on idiosyncratic private information assuming a multiplicative structure i derive sufficient conditions under which the model is identified and propose a non parametric estimation procedure that results in uniformly consistent estimators of the cost components distributions the estimation procedure is applied to data from michigan highway procurement auctions private information is estimated to account for 34 of the variation in bidders costs it is shown that accounting for unobserved auction heterogeneity has important implications for the evaluation of the distribution of rents efficiency and optimal auction design

public goods and optimal paternalism under present biased preferences this paper concerns the provision of a state variable public good in a two type model under presentbiased consumer preferences the preference for immediate grati cation facing the high ability type weakens the incentive to adjust public provision in response to the self selection constraint

product development decisions a review of the literature this paper is a review of research in product development which we define as the transformation of a market opportunity into a product available for sale our review is broad encompassing work in the academic fields of marketing operations management and engineering design the value of this breadth is in conveying the shape of the entire research landscape we focus on product development projects within a single firm we also devote our attention to the development of physical goods although much of the work we describe applies to products of all kinds we look inside the black box of product development at the fundamentaldecisions that are made by intention or default in doing so we adopt the perspective of product development as a deliberate business process involving hundreds of decisions many of which can be usefully supported by knowledge and tools we contrast this approach to prior reviews of the literature which tend to examine the importance of environmental and contextual variables such as market growth rate the competitive environment or the level of top management support

the effect of federal davis bacon and disadvantaged business enterprise regulations on highway maintenance costs the author compares winning bids on state and federal highway maintenance projects in colorado between 2000 and 2011 to determine whether federal prevailing wage and disadvantaged business enterprise regulations are associated with increased construction costs the effect of the davis bacon act is evaluated when average wage rates prevail for almost all workers involved in highway maintenance for most of the period of the study the federal minimum for work completed by disadvantaged businesses is 10 the goal for colorado exceeds this minimum by two to three percentage points summary data indicate that federal projects are more expensive than state projects but projects funded by the federal government are also larger and more complex regression results indicate that with controls for project size and complexity no statistically significant difference is found in the cost of federal and state projects results also indicate that federal regulations are not associated with reduced bid competition a

the impact of public information on bidding in highway procurement auctions a number of papers in the theoretical auction literature show that the release of information regarding the seller s valuation of an item can cause bidders to bid more aggressively this widely accepted result in auction theory remains largely untested in the empirical literature recent theoretical work has also shown that this effect can be more pronounced in auctions with larger common cost uncertainty we examine the impact of a policy change by the oklahoma department of transportation that led to the release of the state s internal estimate of the costs to complete highway construction projects we perform a differences in differences analysis comparing bidding in texas a state that had a uniform policy of revealing the same information all throughout the period of analysis to bidding in oklahoma our results show that in comparison to texas auctions the average bid in oklahoma fell after the change in engineers cost estimate ece policy this decline in bids was even larger for projects where the common uncertainty in costs is greater moreover the within auction standard deviation of bids fell after the change in ece policy with the most significant decline observed again in projects with greater common cost uncertainty

vouchers for private schooling in colombia evidence from a randomized natural experiment colombia used lotteries to distribute vouchers which partially covered the cost of private secondary school for students who maintained satisfactory academic progress three years after the lotteries winners were about 10 percentage points more likely to have finished 8th grade primarily because they were less likely to repeat grades and scored 0 2 standard deviations higher on achievement tests there is some evidence that winners worked less than losers and were less likely to marry or cohabit as teenagers benefits to participants likely exceeded the 24 per winner additional cost to the government of supplying vouchers instead of public school places

a note on optimal paternalism and health capital subsidies this paper concerns the policy implications of a potential self control problem underlying the consumption of unhealthy food our results show that subsidies on wealth and healthcapital can be used

present bias lessons learned and to be learned while present bias is an old idea it only took hold in economics following david laibson s 1994 dissertation over the past 20 years research has led to a much better theoretical understanding of present bias when and how to apply it and which ancillary assumptions are appropriate in different contexts empirical analyses have demonstrated how present bias can improve our understanding of behavior in various economic field contexts nonetheless there is still much to learn in this paper we give our assessment of some lessons learned and to be learned

optimal paternalistic health and human capital subsidy abstract we characterize the first best earnings subsidy when agents are heterogeneous with respect to present biased preferences and cognitive skills when agents health and human capital biased allocations affect not only welfare but also their labor earnings a single subsidy corrects for agents mistaken decisions we highlight two novel features of paternalistic interventions the effects of agents decisions on the economy s supply side through future productivity and the role of cognitive skills on individual s optimal trade off between human capital accumulation and leisure we compare this optimal subsidy to an alternative policy package

hyperbolic discounting and uniform savings floors abstract previous research suggests that in partial equilibrium individuals whose decision making exhibits a present bias such as hyperbolic discounters who tend to over consume will be in favor of having a floor imposed on their savings in this paper i show it is quite difficult for the introduction of a savings floor to be pareto improving in general equilibrium indeed a necessary condition for the floor to be pareto improving is that it is high enough to be binding for all individuals even in that case because the equilibrium interest rate adjusts with the level of the savings floor some individuals may prefer to commit to a future time path of consumption by facing a high interest rate and no floor rather than a high floor an essential insight for understanding this result is to note that even those with little self control in an absolute sense will choose to save a lot when the interest rate is high enough

are bid preferences benign the effect of small business subsidies in highway procurement auctions abstract bid preferences in procurement auctions allow firms from an identifiable group an advantage in bidding against unfavored firms while economic efficiency is expected to fall as a result of bid preferences government procurement costs may either increase or decrease depending on the competitive response of favored and unfavored firms this paper uses data from california auctions for road construction contracts where small businesses receive a 5 percent bid preference in auctions for projects using only state funds and no preferential treatment on projects using federal aid i show that while firms bidding behavior matches theoretical predictions procurement costs are 3 8 percent higher on auctions using preferences the higher procurement cost in preference auctions is attributed to reduced participation by lower cost large firms structural estimates of latent firm costs are then used to evaluate how efficiency and the division of surplus between firms and the government are impacted by bid preferences firm profits are 3 1 percent lower under bid preferences however this is overwhelmed by the efficiency loss due to reduced large firm participation the efficiency loss conditional on firm participation is estimated to represent around 0 1 percent of overall procurement costs including the adverse effect of preferences on the participation of large firms increases the estimated efficiency loss to 3 6 percent which represents 27 cents for each additional dollar awarded to small businesses through the program counterfactual simulations indicate that if participation were instead inelastic to bid preferences the 5 percent bid preference would be close to the optimal level

innovative activity over the business cycle this paper examines cyclical patterns of innovative activity in the united kingdom over the period 1948 83 innovative activity turns out to have many of the properties of a random walk but does show a tendency to cluster during booms there is clear evidence of a long term secular relation between the level of innovative activity and the level of economic activity although this may have changed in the 1980s finally the data provide no reason for thinking that these clusters of innovation cause cyclic variations in economic activity but variations in economic activity do granger cause changes in innovative activity copyright 1995 by royal economic society

how costly is affirmative action government contracting and california s proposition 209 abstract this paper investigates the effect of disadvantaged business enterprise subcontractor goals on the winning bids for highway construction contracts using california s proposition 209 which prohibited the consideration of race or gender in awarding state funded contracts after proposition 209 prices on state funded contracts fell by 5 6 relative to federally funded projects for which preferences still applied most of the price decline after proposition 209 resulted from the mix of subcontractors employed which seems to arise from the higher costs of firms located in high minority areas finally short run barriers to entry and expansion may increase the cost of affirmative action

animal spirits through creative destruction we show how a schumpeterian process of creative destruction can induce rational herd behavior by entrepreneurs across diverse sectors as if fueled by animal spirits consequently a multisector economy in which productivity improvements are made by independent profit seeking entrepreneurs exhibits regular booms slowdowns and downturns as part of the long run growth process our cyclical equilibrium has higher average growth but lower welfare than the corresponding acyclical one we show how a negative relationship can emerge between volatility and growth across cycling economies and assess the extent to which our model matches several features of actual business cycles