land degradation drought and food security in a less favoured area in the ethiopian highlands a bio economic model with market imperfections abstract this paper presents a bio economic model of andit tid a severely degraded crop livestock farming system with high population density and good market access in the highlands of ethiopia land degradation population growth stagnant technology and drought threaten food security in the area drought or weather risk appears to have increased in recent years the bio economic model is used to analyse the combined effects of land degradation population growth market imperfections and increased risk of drought on household production welfare and food security we find that the indirect effects of drought on household welfare through the impact on crop and livestock prices are larger than the direct production effects of drought provision and adoption of credit for fertiliser although risky in itself may lead to increased grain production and improved household welfare and food security provision of credit may have a negative effect on conservation incentives but this effect may be mitigated by linking a conservation requirement to the provision of credit for fertiliser

cost of living clauses in union contracts determinants and effects this study investigates for the period 1969 81 the determinants of the incidence and strength of cost of living adjustment cola clauses in u s manufacturing and the effect of those clauses on wage inflation the sample includes approximately 5 570 union contracts in over 2 600 bargaining relationships the authors find that both union bargaining power and inflation uncertainty positively affected the probability that a cola clause was adopted as well as the strength of the clause adopted negatively influencing the incidence and strength of cola clauses during the period studied were unanticipated changes in an industry s prices the authors also find evidence that wage inflation was greater under contracts with uncapped colas than under all other contracts a result that also was positively influenced by the amount of unanticipated inflation from these results the authors suggest a number of possible trends in the use and effects of cola clauses

smallholder dairying under transactions costs in east africa abstract it is argued that dairying is vital to future viability of many small farms in east africa and that high transactions costs for dairy production and marketing limit participation by asset and information poor smallholders case studies from kenya and ethiopia illustrate the role of dairy cooperatives in reducing transactions costs analysis of the determinants of producer prices received by a sample of dairy producers near addis ababa suggests that different levels of access to infrastructure assets and information explain why they contemporaneously accept widely different producer prices for fluid milk

diffusion and spillover of new technology a heterogeneous agent model for cassava in west africa understanding what determines the geographic spread of innovations can help guide the funding and implementation of research and extension programs our approach uses household survey data as model parameters to simulate behavior across the entire surveyed population and avoid the aggregation bias associated with representative farm models such a heterogeneous agent approach allows us to infer the distribution of a technology s impacts across one set of households and predict the potential for spreading to another set that shares similar characteristics with respect to natural resource endowments and farming systems we apply the technique to new cassava varieties in west africa finding a strongly poverty alleviating impact with substantial spillover potential from nigeria to neighboring countries

empirical measures of inflation uncertainty a cautionary note a direct ex ante measure of inflation uncertainty in the us is compared with a number of proxies used in empirical studies the direct estimate is the root mean subjective variance of the probability distributions for inflation reported by respondents to the asa nber survey the proxies include forecast standard deviations from arima arch and structural models of inflation these proxies are not significantly correlated with the direct measure nor with one another use of the proxies leads to incorrect inferences about the correlation between inflation and inflation uncertainty and between inflation uncertainty and the real interest rate

the geography and causes of food insecurity in developing countries abstract at the 1996 world food summit 186 countries made a commitment to reduce the number of chronically undernourished people by half by 2015 in order to formulate effective policies for reaching this goal a thorough understanding of the location and causes of food insecurity is needed this paper provides a broad overview of the current character of food insecurity in developing countries focusing on two questions 1 why are they food insecure and 2 why are the food insecure to answer the latter question data from 58 developing countries with high prevalences of food insecurity are employed to examine the relative importance of two of food insecurity s most basic causes national food availability and the inability of people to access food due to poverty using child malnutrition as a proxy along with descriptive controls for non food determinants of malnutrition the paper finds little correlation between national food availabilities and food insecurity the group of countries that exhibit the highest severity of food insecurity are those with high poverty and food dietary energy surpluses consistent with the view that poverty is the most widespread cause of food insecurity in the 1990s the paper concludes by considering the implications of the analysis for appropriate geographical and policy targeting to improve food security for the greatest numbers of people at the fastest pace now and into the 21st century

the relationship between the inflation rate and its variability the issues reconsidered this paper empirically reexamines the hypothesis of a positive relationship between the inflation rate and its variability the sample consists of 66 countries for the 1955 85 sample period using pooled cross section time series data empirical tests are performed for nine different country groupings ranging from the g 7 developed countries to a group of 10 developing asian countries several important conclusions can be derived first irrespective of the variability measure employed the results indicate the presence of a significant positive relationship between the inflation rate and its variability this provides strong support to okun s hypothesis second this relationship is stronger during the flexible rather than the fixed exchange rate period third there appears to be an optimum zone of inflation rate within which the predictability of inflation is at its highest and hence uncertainty cost is at its lowest for the 1955 85 sample period this optimum zone of average inflation rate lies in th

assessing the variability of inflation although there has been much argument over the impact of variable inflation rates upon economic performance there has been surprisingly little attempt to define the term variability of inflation carefully or to test proposed hypotheses connecting variability and the level of inflation precise definitions are given in the paper and a model is constructed showing that the level variability hypothesis may be formulated in terms of the presence of heteroscedasticity in a regression model this theoretical model is used to criticize existing studies while an empirical study with australian data illustrates the application of the approach

un cola why have cost of living clauses disappeared from union contracts and will they return 1 introduction one of the major changes in collective bargaining in recent decades has been the gradual elimination of cost of living adjustments colas from union contracts in 1976 61 of union workers covered by major collective bargaining contracts had cola provisions but by the end of 1995 when the u s bureau of labor statistics stopped collecting data on collective bargaining settlements cola coverage had fallen to 22 1 although the decline in cola rates has been studied extensively there is no agreement as to which factors are primarily responsible for this decline one view attributes the elimination of colas or escalator clauses to declines in inflationary uncertainty a second view emphasizes the erosion of union power yet another view focuses on structural shifts in the u s economy previous research has not determined the relative importance of these and other hypotheses another reason to reassess cola determination is that the economy has changed since the early research was completed the bulk of studies to examine cola incidence statistically have relied on sample periods that end in 1982 or earlier 2 since then there have been major changes in union strength inflationary uncertainty and other potential determinants of wage indexation including deregulation of certain industries in addition more than 90 of the decline in cola rates has occurred since 1982 it is worthwhile to determine whether the factors deemed to be important in the early studies are still important we provide a comparison with previous research formally assess the contributions of various factors to the erosion of cola rates and provide insights as to likely changes in cola coverage in the future if inflation picks up and with it inflationary uncertainty 3 will cola rates rise to levels not seen since the 1970s what would be the consequences of a rebound in union power of further economic deregulation of likely industrial and demographic shifts in the economy once the major causes of past changes in cola coverage are understood it becomes possible to project the consequences of changes in key economic variables given the concern in macroeconomics with wage indexation and the linkage between wages and prices gray 1976 fischer 1986 ball and cecchetti 1991 schiller 1997 the extent to which cola coverage responds to economic factors has important implications for the economy underlying the empirical analysis is a pooled cross sectional time series model of cola incidence that accounts for industry fixed effects to estimate the model we assemble a panel data set of cola coverage and an array of characteristics for 32 private sector industries over a 22 year period because cola clauses are multiyear in nature the model also recognizes that the percentage of workers covered by cola clauses in a particular year depends on conditions in both the current year and previous years previewing results we find that the major cause of the decline in cola coverage has been the reduction in inflationary uncertainty second in importance has been the erosion of union power both the percentage of the industry s workforce that is unionized and the estimated union wage premium in the industry are highly significant determinants of cola coverage but because the union wage premium has remained largely intact in most industries changes in the premium are much less important than losses in unionization in explaining the overall decline in cola provisions economic deregulation industrial shifts and an increased presence of women in the workforce have had modest effects on cola rates on the basis of our findings a rebound in inflationary uncertainty to the levels experienced in the 1970s would raise cola coverage by 10 percentage points 2 background for workers in long term contracts colas provide at least partial protection from the consequences of unexpected inflation

changes in the u s wage structure 1963 1987 application of quantile regression the 1980 s witnessed rapid changes in the structure of wages in the united states in this study recently developed techniques for quantile regression are applied to every march current population survey since 1964 and changes in the return to schooling and experience at different points of the wage distribution are examined the quantile regression technique parsimoniously describes the entire conditional wage distribution this conditional distribution is used to examine changes in within group wage inequality as measured by the difference between conditional quantiles two linear models are considered a simple one group model and a 16 group model the results suggest that the returns to schooling and experience differ across quantiles of the wage distribution but their patterns of change are similar significant differences in wage inequality are also found across the various skill groups the paper also presents a new imputation method for cps data

the relationship between the level and variability of inflation theory and evidence summary this paper emphasizes the role played by asymmetric stabilization policies in producing the widely reported positive association between the level and variability of inflation a simple theoretical model is constructed which shows how asymmetric policies give rise to this association the empirical findings presented provide support to the proposition that variations in inflation uncertainty are policy induced

the level and uncertainty of inflation results from oecd forecasts bryce e kanago there is considerable evidence that inflation variability and the level of inflation are positively related across countries evidence of a within county relation is mixed evidence for a significant positive relation comes mostly from studies using some survey measure contrary evidence comes mostly from studies using regression errors our measure of uncertainty is the squared forecast error from organization for economic cooperation and development inflation forecasts most countries do not exhibit a positive and significant relation the greatest number of positive coefficients is for relative uncertainty regressed on contemporaneous inflation jel e310 e370 1342 1340 1323 i introduction although empirical studies have not reached a unanimous conclusion most economists believe one detriment of high inflation is the greater uncertainty it generates about future inflation affirmative evidence of a positive relation between inflation and uncertainty is most frequently found in cross country studies that regress some measure of variability or uncertainty for each country on their average inflation rate time series regressions for individual countries provide mixed results those time series studies that derive inflation uncertainty from a survey of forecasters conclude that higher inflation causes greater uncertainty time series studies that derive uncertainty from ex post regressions constructed by researchers provide most of the negative evidence 1 it is tempting to dismiss this negative evidence as the consequence of poorly or opportunistically constructed ex post forecasts in this paper we use annual inflation forecasts for organization for economic cooperation and development oecd countries that have been published in the oecd s economic outlook for about 30 years these data circumvent the problems of constructing forecasts after the fact for each date and each country a single forecast is provided by contrast survey data such as the livingston data average the forecasts of a number of respondents to the extent that the survey sample is representative of the population the surveys may provide a better approximation to the public s expectations however survey respondents have nothing to lose if their forecasts are wildly inaccurate whereas professional forecasters put their reputation on the line a distinct advantage of the published forecasts is that the oecd provides forecasts for 24 countries whereas surveys are available for only a few countries of course ex post forecasts could be constructed for the same set of countries while these ex post forecasts could utilize modern econometrics techniques such as autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity arch and time varying parameters they cannot replicate the specialized human capital the judgment or the particular perspective of the times that were used to construct ex ante forecasts davis and kanago 1998 regressed the squared error from ex ante inflation forecasts produced and published by business international on inflation and found no significant relation for most countries this result makes it less tempting to dismiss the time series evidence of ex post inflation forecasts we extend the results of davis and kanago 1998 by computing the same regression but using squared errors from ex ante forecasts made by the oecd and published in economic outlook the 24 countries in the oecd data include canada iceland luxembourg new zealand the united states and turkey that are not included in the business international data for some countries the oecd data includes a few more years than the business international data the results from the oecd and business international data are broadly similar few countries show a significant relation between inflation and uncertainty we further test the robustness of these results by using relative uncertainty as the dependent variable

the relationship between relative prices and the general price level it is very nearly a truismi amaong neoclassical economists that the public is wont to confuse changes in the general price level with relative price changes correspondingl y one might speak of the independence between the two as one of the central postulates of the neoclassical tradition william stanley jevons was aml ong the first to identify this basic dichotomin economic life as well as to attempt to explain the ordinary citizen s seenming incapacity to understand it

productivity health and inequality in the intrahousehold distribution of food in low income countries a model is formulated incorporating linkages among nutrition labor market productivity health heterogeneity and the intrahousehold distribution of food and work activities in a subsistence economy empirical results based on a sample of households from bangladesh indicate that despite considerable intrahousehold disparities in calorie consumption households are averse to inequality furthermore consistent with the model the results also indicate that both the higher level and greater variance in the calories consumed by men relative to women reflect in part the greater participation by men in activities in which productivity is sensitive to health status copyright 1990 by american economic association

persistent inequality an explanation based on limited parental altruism abstract this paper proposes an alternative theory for the observed persistence in income inequality across households a theory based on limited parental altruism we argue that the degree of parental altruism is limited by the economic status of the parent a poor parent not only has less ability but also has less willingness to invest in children s human capital formation this generates a non linearity in such investment expenditures as a result initial income differences may perpetuate over time even with convex technology and convex preferences in this context we also compare the efficacy of the public vis a vis the private education system from the perspective of long run growth

unpacking the meaning of market access evidence from rural kenya summary this paper critically examines the dimensions of market access using farm panel survey data from kenya we investigate changes in ten indicators of market access during the 1997 2010 post liberalization period we find major improvements in certain market access conditions and little change in others there is generally low correlation between alternative indicators of market access all purpose indicators may not accurately reflect specific market access conditions of interest distances to physical infrastructure are often not representative of farmers access to markets changes in specific market access conditions may have more to do with the behaviors of marketing agents we consider the implications of these findings for agricultural marketing policies and for research methods

an empirical analysis of expected stock price movements the livingston survey of economists forecasts of key economic variables has served as the data source for a number of studies investigating the forrnation and effects of expectations much of this work has utilized the price level predictions from the survey to proxy anticipated inflation l this measure of expected inflation has also been analyzed by several researchers to see if it conforrns to the notion of rational expectations with differing conclusions 2 this paper extends the analysis of the livingston data by examining the forecasts of common stock prices made by the individual survey participants since predicted movements in stock prices may play an important role in portfolio decisions and according to tobin s q model real investment decisions it seems useful to explore the characteristics of these forecasts the paper addresses two main issues first are the stock price predictions in accord with rational expectation forrnation second how are the respondents expectations of stock price movements related to their forecasts of inflation and real

resource degradation low agricultural productivity and poverty in sub saharan africa pathways out of the spiral sub saharan africa ssa has the lowest agricultural productivity in the world while almost half of the population lives below us 1 per day the biggest development policy challenge is to find appropriate solutions to end hunger and poverty in the region building on several years of empirical research conducted in east africa this paper identifies potential strategies for sustainable development in this region in general the empirical evidence reviewed confirms that different strategies are needed in different development domains of ssa nevertheless some elements will be common to all successful strategies including assurance of peace and security a stable macroeconomic environment provision of incentives through markets where markets function development of market institutions where they do not and public and private investment in an appropriate mix of physical human natural and social capital the differences in strategies across these domains mainly reflect differences in the mix of those investments as influenced by different comparative advantages

returns to investment in less favored areas in developing countries a synthesis of evidence and implications for africa abstract a large proportion of world s population lives in marginal or less favored areas these areas are of home to the poorest segment of the population particularly in rural areas in the past government has targeted their resources mostly to the high potential or irrigated areas these investments have generated rapid growth in agricultural production for example the so called green revolution in south and southeast asia in the 1970s and 1980s which in turn has helped to alleviate rural and urban poverty however as investments continue to increase in these favored areas their marginal returns have begun to decline and environmental problems are emerging evidence shows that it is in the marginal areas or less favored areas where many investments may have higher returns today these investments may have even larger impacts on poverty reduction and environmental protection as poor people are increasingly concentrated in the marginal areas where natural resources have already been severely degraded this study synthesizes some recent studies from india and china on the relative returns to investments in favored and less favored areas and presents some preliminary evidence from uganda and offers some policy implications for africa on how governments and international donors can reprioritize their investment portfolio in order to achieve multiple goals of growth poverty reduction and environmental protection

returns to spending on agricultural extension the case of the national agricultural advisory services naads program of uganda the aim of this paper is to assess the direct and indirect impacts of the agricultural extension system of uganda the national agricultural advisory services naads program on household agricultural income data from two rounds of surveys of ugandan rural farm households conducted in 2004 and 2007 as well as different program evaluation methods and model specifications are used to estimate impacts and compute a rate of return the direct and indirect impact of the program is estimated at 37 95 and 27 55 increase in per capita agricultural gross revenue between 2004 and 2007 for households participating directly and indirectly in the program respectively compared to nonparticipants the rate of return on the program s expenditures is estimated at 8 49 the program has been relatively more effective among male headed larger and asset poor households as well as those taking up noncrop high value enterprises and living further away from financial services all weather roads and markets or located in the eastern and northern regions policy implications of the results are drawn

the demand for money and the variability of the rate of inflation an emperical note abstract in this note we incorporate the effect of inflation variability on the demand for money in pakistan it is found that this variable has a significant impact on money demand function our results are similar to those of klein while they differ with blejer

trading off environmental sustainability for empowerment and income woodlot devolution in northern ethiopia summary this paper explores local empowerment income generation opportunities and environmental sustainability under varying scales of woodlot management in ethiopia we find that more devolved woodlot management empowers resource users providing greater decision making autonomy regarding harvesting and management our economic analysis indicates that there has been limited harvesting of high value products such as poles and fuelwood labor inputs declined tree survival rates increased and average annual net benefits improved as woodlot management was devolved indicating improved efficiency with more localized management environmental sustainability was associated with less devolved woodlot management this study highlights the trade offs inherent in devolution reforms

links between nonfarm income and farm investment in african households adding the capital market perspective farm household surveys in the 1970s and 1980s showed that nonfarm activities provide an important share of household income contrasting with the conventional image of rural african households as deriving their food entitlement almost exclusively from the land e g matlon collier and lal low reardon et al haggblade hazell and brown much of the literature on nonfarm income has concentrated

the effects of recent price liberalization on kenyan peri urban dairy a case study using the policy analysis matrix approach abstract when shortages of dairy products became severe in kenya early in 1992 prices of dairy products were de controlled to improve the incentives to producers the impact of that policy change is examined using the policy analysis matrix pam methodology a case study of the marketing chain involving small holder peri urban dairy producers in the nyeri region is considered the price policy reform removed only between 20 per cent and 30 per cent of the negative policy effects on most dairy producers depending on the technology used the market thus remains non competitive and a single large dairy processor was the biggest beneficiary of the policy change

cost of living adjustment clauses in union contracts a summary of results our paper provides an explanation why cost of living adjustment cola provisions and their characteristics vary widely across u s industries we develop models of optimal risk sharing between a firm and union to investigate the determinants of a number of contract characteristics these include the presence and degree of wage indexing the magnitude of deferred noncontingent wage increases contract duration and the trade off between temporary layoffs and wage indexing preliminary empirical tests of some of the implications of the model are described one key finding is that the level of unemployment insurance benefits appears to influence the level of layoffs and the extent of cola coverage simultaneously

on crop biodiversity risk exposure and food security in the highlands of ethiopia this paper investigates the effects of crop genetic diversity on farm productivity and production risk in the highlands of ethiopia using a moment based approach the analysis uses a stochastic production function capturing mean variance and skewness effects welfare implications of diversity are evaluated using a certainty equivalent measured as expected income minus a risk premium reflecting the cost of risk we find that the effect of diversity on skewness dominates its effect on variance meaning that diversity reduces the cost of risk the analysis also shows that the beneficial effects of diversity

strategies to increase agricultural productivity and reduce land degradation evidence from uganda this paper estimates a structural econometric model of household decisions regarding income strategies participation in programs and organisations crop choices land management and labour use and their implications for agricultural production and soil erosion based upon a survey of over 450 households and their farm plots in uganda many factors have context specific impacts and involve trade offs between increasing production and reducing land degradation government agricultural extension and training programs contribute to higher value of crop production in the lowlands but to soil erosion in the highlands by contrast non governmental organization ngo programs focusing on agriculture and environment help to reduce erosion but have less favourable impacts on production in the lowlands education increases household incomes but also reduces crop production in the lowlands poverty has mixed impacts on agricultural production depending on the nature of poverty smaller farms obtain higher crop production per hectare while households with fewer livestock have lower crop production population pressure contributes to agricultural intensification but also to erosion in the densely populated highlands several household income strategies contribute to increased value of crop production without significant impacts on soil erosion we find little evidence of impact of access to markets roads and credit land tenure or title on agricultural intensification and crop production and land degradation in general the results imply that the strategies to increase agricultural production and reduce land degradation must be location specific and that there are few win win opportunities to simultaneously increase production and reduce land degradation

wage flexibility and openness this paper analyzes the degree of short run real wage flexibility in a two sector economy under floating rates this is done by deriving optimal wage indexation in a contracting framework we find that the more closed the economy the lower the degree of wage indexation as a result output will fluctuate less around its desired level in a more closed economy these findings further imply that a given unexpected monetary shock will cause as maller output shock in a more open economy whereas a given real shock will induce a smaller output shock in a more closed economy this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

small scale irrigation and income distribution in ethiopia irrigation stimulates agricultural productivity and economic growth but this may come at the cost of growing inequality using data at community and household level this paper analyzes the distributional impacts of irrigation in ethiopia regression analyses reveal the direct effects of irrigation on expenditures and labour demand and the indirect effects of irrigation on food prices and expenditures of non irrigation households the results indicate that past development of irrigation stimulated growth without deepening inequality and that irrigation decreased dependence on food for work programs thus irrigation has played a positive role in the development of ethiopia

strategies for sustainable agricultural development in the ethiopian highlands this paper investigates the impacts of population growth market access agricultural credit and technical assistance programs land policies livelihood strategies and other factors on changes in land management natural resource conditions and human welfare indicators since 1991 in the northern ethiopian highlands based on a survey of 198 villages we find that population growth has contributed significantly to land degradation poverty and food insecurity in this region in contrast better market access and some credit and technical assistance programs were associated with improvement or less decline in land quality wealth and food security suggesting the possibility of win win win development outcomes with appropriate interventions land redistribution was associated with adoption of inorganic fertilizer but also with declining use of fallow and declining soil fertility we find also that different land management practices are adopted where different livelihood strategies are pursued suggesting the importance of considering livelihood strategies in technical assistance programs development strategies should be tailored to the different comparative advantages of different locations no one size fits all strategy will work everywhere this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

agricultural commercialization and diversification processes and policies abstract agricultural commercialization and diversification involve the gradual replacement of integrated farming systems by specialized enterprises for crop livestock poultry and aquaculture products changes in product mix and input uses are determined largely by the market forces during this transition commercialization of agricultural production is an endogenous process and is accompanied by economic growth urbanization and withdrawal of labor from the agricultural sector this paper provides a selective overview and synthesis of the issues involved in the commercialization and diversification process of agriculture drawing in significant part from the papers in this volume based on an assessment of the process observed in selected countries we show that the commercialization process should not be expected to be a frictionless process and significant equity and environmental consequences may occur at least in the short to medium term particularly when inappropriate policies are followed however we highlight that appropriate government policies including investment in rural infrastructure and crop improvement research and extension establishment of secure rights to land and water and development and liberalization of capital markets can help alleviate many of the possible adverse transitional consequences

additional evidence on inflation variability the experience of asian countries abstract the relationship between inflation and its variability has been examined by using time series data for eight asian countries it is found that this relationship also holds for countries which have enjoyed a period of long price stability furthermore this relationship also holds for highly industrialized countries

descent rules and strategic transfers evidence from matrilineal groups in ghana abstract traditional descent systems can roughly be divided into patrilineal and matrilineal in the latter a man s heir is not his own child but rather his sister s son the paper examines the implications of this social norm for the pattern of inter vivos transfers using household level data from rural ghana where the largest ethnic group is traditionally matrilineal in particular it tests the predictions of a model of strategic behavior according to which children should respond to the threat of disinheritance by increasing transfers to their parents during lifetime to induce a donation of land before the default matrilineal inheritance is enforced i find that the credibility of customary norms enforcement as proxied by the presence of a nephew in the father s household significantly increases the probability of receiving transfers from children for akans but not for the other groups the effect is specific to nephews and not to other co resident boys this pattern of behavior can affect asset accumulation decisions across generations

dispersed communication by central bank committees and the predictability of monetary policy decisions the paper asks whether members of central bank decision making committees should communicate with the public in a collegial manner by conveying the consensus or majority view of the committee or in an individualistic way by providing the diversity of views among the committee members it finds that more active as well as more consistent communication by committee members improves the predictability of monetary policy decisions significantly this effect is sizeable as communication dispersion across committee members accounts on average for one third to one half of the market s prediction errors of fomc policy decisions moreover more active and more consistent communication are found to also reduce the degree of uncertainty about the future path of interest rates these findings suggest that a collegial communication which stresses the consensus view on policy inclinations can enhance the effectiveness of central bank communication

indexation and the effect of inflation uncertainty on real gnp this article examines the combined effects of inflation uncertainty and indexation on the growth rate of real gross national product gn p the evidence suggests that greater indexation partially reduces t he adverse effect of inflation uncertainty on real gnp growth over time it also indicates that in contrast to earlier findings regarding th e effect of inflation uncertainty on employment the overall effect of inflation uncertainty on real gnp growth may be permanent a preliminary assessment of whether the discrepancy is the result of in flation uncertainty permanently affecting the growth rate of the capi tal stock is inconclusive copyright 1988 by the university of chicago

women s rank modifies the relationship between household and women s food insecurity in complex households in northern burkina faso abstract this study examined the relationship between food insecurity at household and woman children sub unit levels and factors modifying this relationship in complex households in northern burkina faso data were collected from 126 households and 176 woman children sub units every 6 months from july 2001 to july 2003 household food insecurity varied more between seasons than did woman children sub unit food insecurity woman children sub unit food insecurity increased when household food insecurity increased woman children sub units in monogamous households were less food insecure and more at risk of becoming food insecure when the household became food insecure than sub units headed by women with first or second rank in polygamous households within polygamous households woman children sub units headed by women with rank third or more were more likely to become food insecure when the household became food insecure than those with first or second rank these results have implications for design planning and evaluation of programs and projects aiming to alleviate food insecurity in this and similar settings

wage indexation openness and inflation uncertainty the case of italy this article uses annual data of the italian economy to test the validity of the hypotheses of friedman 1977 and aizenman 1985 that the level of inflation uncertainty and the degree of openness of an economy have positive effects on the level of wage indexation it was found that the estimated wage indexation equation supports the validity of the aizenman hypothesis that the degree of openness of an economy has positive effects on the level of wage indexation on the other hand the regression of the wage indexation equation does not generally support the validity of the friedman hypothesis that the level of inflation uncertainty has positive effects on the level of wage indexation

inflation uncertainty inflationary shocks and the credibility of counterinflation policy abstract this paper assesses the contributions of price shocks general price variability and the credibility of counterinflation policy to changes in inflation uncertainty in the u k uncertainty is measured by the root mean square error of consumer inflation forecasts in contrast to the assumptions of much theory uncertainty is not significantly affected by noise in individual or aggregate inflation rates factors which determine policy credibility are more important the political party in government the proximity of elections and under fixed exchange rates the rate of inflation itself however government initiatives to increase credibility through incomes policies and monetary targets have failed to reduce uncertainty

credit constraints and smallholder dairy production in the east african highlands application of a switching regression model abstract accurate assessment of farmers credit constraint condition is important in order to understand the circumstances under which credit would have its greatest impact in this study a switching regression model was used to determine the impact of credit on smallholder dairy farms in the east african highlands using farm level data from ethiopia and kenya farmers were classified as credit constrained or credit non constrained based on their responses from the farm level surveys no consistent relationship was found between farmers credit constraint condition and their borrowing status most of the variation in milk output per farm was explained by the number of crossbred milking cows in the dairy herd as credit is likely to facilitate investment in crossbred dairy cows it will have substantial impacts on smallholder dairy farms especially if it is targeted to credit constrained farms

inflation expectations revisited this paper describes the construction and main features of a new monthly time series for the mean and standard deviation of consumer inflation expectations in the united kingdom in the years 1961 85 based on a number of consumer surveys this involves generalizing to four and five category tendency survey data the method used by j a carlson and m parkin 1975 to quantify the results of a three category tendency survey of inflation expectations the new series exhibit very different time series properties from the original carlson parkin data copyright 1988 by the london school of economics and political science

the choice of exchange rate regime and speculative attacks we develop a framework for studying the choice of exchange rate regime in an open economy where the local currency is vulnerable to speculative attacks the optimal regime is determined by a policymaker who trades off the loss from nominal exchange rate uncertainty against the cost of maintaining a given regime this cost is affected in turn by the likelihood of a speculative attack searching for the optimal regime within the class of exchange rate bands we show that the optimal regime is either a peg a zero width band a free float an infinite width band or a non degenerate finite width band the paper shows that lower costs of moving across currencies induce policymakers to set more flexible exchange rate systems this lowers ceteris paribus the likelihood of financial crises one implication is that a tobin tax does not necessarily reduce the likelihood of currency crises the paper also investigates the effects of country size openess variability in fundamentals and reputation on the choice of exchange rate regime the role of abrupt changes in reputation in triggerering crises even with unchanged fundamentals as an alternative to sunspots is discussed and illustrated

differences in food insecurity between adults and children in zimbabwe food insecurity is a serious challenge facing millions of households across africa within these households distinguishing the incidence of food insecurity between adults and children is often difficult because most surveys rely on the reports of adults in this paper we address this shortcoming of previous work by using a survey from over 6000 households in zimbabwe where interviews were conducted with both an adult caregiver and a child using two measures of food insecurity we find that reports of adults and children differ within households with lower reports of food insecurity among children with children in the youngest age groups particularly being protected from food shortages an exception to this general rule though is in better off households where children are often more likely to be food insecure than adults findings also demonstrate the need for multiple measures to comprehensively capture the full picture of food insecurity in the household