sovereign default risk and volatility abstract in a model of sovereign debt with endogenous default we find a non monotonic relationship between default risk and volatility reflecting a trade off between prudence and the insurance value of default we show that this feature also holds in the data

stochastic growth a duality approach abstract we re examine the representative agent s optimal consumption and savings under uncertainty in the presence of investment constraints using martingale representation and convex analysis techniques this framework allows us to explicitly quantify precautionary savings which induces a higher average growth rate than in a certainty setup we provide a closed form solution for a cobb douglas economy the effect of uncertainty on portfolio selection is analyzed consumption growth rate and risk free interest rate exhibit a u shaped relationship uncertainty negatively affects expected consumption growth rate such a result seems to be supported by empirical evidence

commodity price volatility and world market integration since 1700 abstract poor countries are more volatile than rich countries and this volatility impedes their growth furthermore commodity prices are a key source of that volatility this paper explores price volatility since 1700 to offer three stylized facts commodity price volatility has not increased over time commodities have always shown greater price volatility than manufactures and world market integration breeds less commodity price volatility thus economic isolation is associated with much greater commodity price volatility while world market integration is associated with less

policy variability and economic growth this paper explores the effect of policy variability or frequency of regime switching on economic growth and welfare we study a one sector growth model where investment can be subsidized at either a positive rate or not subsidized at all we find that the lack of persistence in policies per se need not be welfare reducing and that it is likely to decrease growth higher variability implies more frequent changes in consumption and investment but by creating a stronger intertemporal link across regimes variability reduces the fluctuation in investment rates thus decreasing the magnitude of changes in consumption and increasing welfare

what are the farm level impacts of malawi s farm input subsidy program a critical review this article provides a critical analysis of the current frontier of research evaluating malawi s farm input subsidy program fisp whose main objectives are increasing maize production promoting household food security and enhancing rural incomes we focus on farm level studies in malawi identifying consistent and contrasting research results in order to draw important policy lessons and provide suggested avenues for future research while national production estimates suggested dramatic increases in maize production and productivity during the years of the fisp the farm level studies found relatively modest increases in maize production and yields over the same period consistent with the farm level results of modest maize production increases there has been a relative increase in real maize prices and the country continued to import maize during most of the subsidy program years furthermore there is evidence that better off households gained substantially more than poorer households when they participated in the program together these findings cast some doubt on the fisp s ability to reduce food insecurity and poverty we propose a number of policy lessons and suggestions for rigorous investigation including research that directly measures the causal impacts of the fisp program on poverty in malawi

unraveling the effect of targeted input subsidies on dietary diversity in household consumption and child nutrition the case of malawi abstract malawi s farm input subsidy program fisp has generated significant attention with several studies showing an increase in maize production since the inception of the program in 2005 but stagnating poverty levels in this study i examine whether and how fisp has affected dietary diversity in household food consumption and child nutrition i find that children under the age of five living in households that received a voucher between 2008 and 2013 for the purchase of fertilizer have a statistically significantly higher at the 1 level weight for age weight for length height and body mass index than children living in non recipient households i also find that households having received a voucher consume cereals nuts vegetables meats and fruits more frequently than non recipient households the analysis uses two stage least squares to account for the endogeneity of selection into the fertilizer subsidy program i test the robustness of these results using child fixed effects the results indicate that past studies evaluating fisp failing to account for the positive gains in child nutrition and household food consumption diversity may be underestimating its benefits

risk taking global diversification and growth this paper develops a continuous time stochastic model in which international risk sharing can yield substantial welfare gains through its effect on expected consumption growth the mechanism linking global diversification to growth is an attendant world portfolio shift from safe low yield capital to riskier high yield capital the presence of these two types of capital captures the idea that growth depends on the availability of an ever increasing array of specialized hence inherently risky production inputs calibration exercises using consumption and stock market data imply that most countries reap large steady state welfare gains from global financial integration copyright 1994 by american economic association

ready for capital account convertibility abstract this paper investigates whether the impact of capital account convertibility on the long term volatility of economic growth depends on financial development it estimates a system of three simultaneous equations mean growth volatility of growth and financial development this allows for the study of both the impact of capital account liberalization on volatility as well as its direct impact on financial development results indicate that economies with low financial development fall prey to excess volatility arising from capital account openness while capital account openness itself has a significant positive impact on financial development the results are robust to alternative measures of financial development and volatility and to the removal of outliers

input subsidy programs in sub saharan africa a synthesis of recent evidence input subsidy programs have once again become a major plank of agricultural development strategies in africa ten african governments spend roughly us 1 billion annually on input subsidy programs isps amounting to 28 6 of their public expenditures on agriculture this article reviews the microlevel evidence on isps undertaken since the mid 2000s we examine the characteristics of subsidy beneficiaries crop response rates to fertilizer application and their influence on the performance of subsidy programs the impacts of subsidy programs on national fertilizer use and the development of commercial input distribution systems and finally the impact of isps on food price levels and poverty rates the weight of the evidence indicates that the costs of the programs generally outweigh their benefits findings from other developing areas with a higher proportion of crop area under irrigation and with lower fertilizer prices factors that should provide higher returns to fertilizer subsidies than in africa indicate that at least a partial reallocation of expenditures from fertilizer subsidies to r d and infrastructure would provide higher returns to agricultural growth and poverty reduction however because isps enable governments to demonstrate tangible support to constituents they are likely to remain on the african landscape for the foreseeable future hence the study identifies ways in which benefits can be enhanced through changes in implementation modalities and complementary investments within a holistic agricultural intensification strategy among the most important of these are efforts to reduce the crowding out of commercial fertilizer distribution systems and programs to improve soil fertility to enable farmers to use fertilizer more efficiently the challenges associated with achieving these gains are likely to be formidable

export diversification through resource based industrialization the case of natural gas for small resource rich developing economies specialization in raw exports is usually considered to be detrimental to growth and resource based industrialization rbi is often advocated to promote export diversification this paper develops a new methodology to assess the performance of these rbi policies we first formulate an adapted mean variance portfolio model that explicitly takes into consideration i a technology based representation of the set of feasible export combinations and ii the cost structure of the resource processing industries second we provide a computationally tractable reformulation of the resulting mixed integer nonlinear optimization problem finally we present an application to the case of natural gas comparing current and efficient export oriented industrialization strategies of nine gas rich developing countries

commodity trade and international risk sharing how much do financial markets matter abstract this paper evaluates the social gains from international risk sharing in some simple general equilibrium models with output uncertainty a simulation model calibrated to selected moments of u s and japanese data estimates the incremental loss from a ban on international portfolio diversification to be on the order of 0 20 percent of output per year even the theoretical gains from asset trade may disappear under alternative sets of assumptions on preferences and technology the paper argues that the small magnitude of potential trade gains may help explain the apparently inconsistent findings of empirical studies on the degree of international capital mobility

the impact of terms of trade and real exchange rate volatility on investment and growth in sub saharan africa abstract specialization in primary product exports reduces growth but why adverse trends in and the high variance of primary product prices are possible explanations the impact on investment and growth of the level and volatility of the terms of trade and the real effective exchange rate is estimated for a panel of 14 sub saharan african countries over 1980 1995 growth is negatively affected by terms of trade instability and investment by real exchange rate instability both growth and investment increase when the terms of trade improve and real exchange rate overvaluation is eliminated

the dynamics of investment projects evidence from peru abstract we analyse the effect of commodity price cycles on firm investment decisions at the project level by considering the decision to delay cancel or complete a project as initially announced in particular we use logit and duration models of competing risks on a novel dataset of announced investment projects in peru from different economic sectors the empirical framework for the timing of investment is motivated by real option models for projects that take time to build with commodity prices used as a proxy of expected future income and their volatility as a proxy for uncertainty our results suggest that both a reduction in commodity prices and a reduction in their volatility increase the probability to delay investment in the mining sector this result is in line with a number of real option models with time to build in other sectors delays in implementation occur more often in periods of high volatility probability regressions under a competing risk framework suggest that higher commodity prices lead to a higher probability of completion in all sectors of the economy

measuring food insecurity the frequency and severity of coping strategies abstract defining and interpreting food security and measuring it in reliable valid and cost effective ways have proven to be stubborn problems facing researchers and programs intended to monitor food security risks this paper briefly reviews the conceptual and methodological literature on food insecurity measurment describes a particular method for distinguishing and measuring short term food insecurity at the household level and discusses ways of generalizing the method the method developed enumerates the frequency and severity of strategies relied on by urban households when faced with a short term insufficiency of food this method goes beyond more commonly used measures of caloric consumption to incorporate vulnerability elements of food insecurity as well as the deliberate actions of household decision makers when faced with food insufficiency

terms of trade uncertainty and economic growth abstract this paper examines a stochastic endogenous growth model in which terms of trade uncertainty affects savings and growth the model explains the well known positive link between growth and the mean rate of change of terms of trade and predicts also that terms of trade variability affects growth increased terms of trade variability results in faster or slower growth depending on the degree of risk aversion but in either case it reduces social welfare these growth effects imply that welfare costs of macroeconomic uncertainty are much larger than first thought cross country panel regressions provide strong support for the model s key predictions

international real business cycles we ask whether a two country real business cycle model can account simultaneously for domestic and international aspects of business cycles with this question in mind we document a number of discrepancies between theory and data the most striking discrepancy concerns the correlations of consumption and output across countries in the data outputs are generally more highly correlated across countries than consumptions in the model we see the opposite

the deterrent effect of antitrust enforcement in this paper we formulate and test a model of collusive pricing in the presence of antitrust enforcement we show that a cartel s optimal price is likely to be neither the competitive price nor the price that the cartel would set in the absence of antitrust enforcement but rather an intermediate price that depends on the levels of antitrust enforcement efforts and penalties our empirical results reveal that increasing antitrust enforcement in the presence of a credible threat of large damage awards has the deterrent effect of reducing mark ups in the bread industry

soil quality and fertilizer use rates among smallholder farmers in western kenya studies of fertilizer use in sub saharan africa have been dominated by analyses of economic and market factors having to do with infrastructure institutions and incentives that prevent or foster increased fertilizer demand largely ignoring how soil fertility status conditions farmer demand for fertilizer we apply a switching regression model to data from 260 farm households in western kenya in order to allow for the possibility of discontinuities in fertilizer demand based on a soil carbon content scc threshold we find that the usual factors reflecting liquidity and quasi fixed inputs are important on high scc plots but not on those with poorer soils external inputs become less effective on soils with low scc hence the discernible shift in behaviors across soil quality regimes for many farmers improved fertilizer market conditions alone may be insufficient to stimulate increased fertilizer use without complementary improvements in the biophysical conditions that affect conditional factor demand

terms of trade risk with partial labor mobility abstract we examine the welfare consequences of terms of trade risk in a small open economy in which it is costly for workers to move between sectors relocation costs lead to partial labor mobility sectoral wage gaps and income risk exceeding that of an economy in which relocation is costless using observed wage differentials and standard values for volatility and preferences we find that the welfare cost of partial labor mobility alone is unlikely to be very large even in the absence of self insurance arrangements in addition modest consumption substitution elasticities significantly reduce these welfare costs

commodity prices and bank lending we analyze the transmission of changes in commodity prices to bank lending in a large sample of developing countries a bank level analysis shows that a fall in commodity net export prices is associated with a reduction of bank lending particularly for commodity exporters and during episodes of terms of trade decline we complement this analysis with loan level data from a credit register which allows us to identify the effect of a commodity price shock on the supply of credit controlling for unobserved factors that could drive borrowers credit demand results show that banks with relatively lower deposits and poor asset quality transmit the changes in commodity prices to lending more aggressively jel f30 f34 g21 q02

is antitrust too complicated for generalist judges the impact of economic complexity and judicial training on appeals abstractthe recent increase in the demand for expert economic analysis in antitrust litigation has improved the welfare of economists however the law and economics literature is silent on the effects of economic complexity or judges economic training on judicial decision making we use a unique data set on antitrust litigation in federal district and administrative courts during 1996 2006 to examine whether economic complexity impacts antitrust decisions and provide a novel test of the hypothesis that antitrust analysis has become too complex for generalist judges we also examine the impact of basic economic training on judges we find that decisions involving the evaluation of complex economic evidence are significantly more likely to be appealed and decisions of judges trained in basic economics are significantly less likely to be appealed than are decisions by their untrained counterparts our analysis supports the hypothesis that some antitrust cases are too complicated for generalist judges

rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets this paper argues that globalization may promote contagion by weakening incentives for gathering costly information and by strengthening incentives for imitating arbitrary market portfolios in the presence of short selling constraints the gain of gathering information at a fixed cost may diminish as markets grow moreover if a portfolio manager s marginal cost for yielding below market returns exceeds the marginal gain for above market returns there is a range of optimal portfolios in which all investors imitate arbitrary market portfolios and this range widens as the market grows numerical simulations suggest that these frictions can have significant implications for capital flows in emerging markets

the dynamic implications of foreign aid and its variability abstract the paper examines the effects of aid and its volatility on consumption investment and the structure of production in the context of an intertemporal two sector general equilibrium model calibrated using data for aid dependent countries in africa a permanent flow of aid mainly finances consumption rather than investment consistent with the historical failure of aid inflows to translate into sustained growth large aid flows are associated with higher real exchange rates and smaller tradable sectors because aid is a substitute for tradable consumption aid volatility results in substantial welfare losses providing a motivation for recent discussions of aid architecture stressing the need for greater predictability of aid these results are also consistent with evidence from cross country regressions of manufactured exports presented later in the paper

assessing the economic vulnerability of small island developing states and the least developed countries macro vulnerability of the small island developing states sids as well as of least developed countries ldcs has been an increasing concern for the international community this has led to the design of an economic vulnerability index evi to assess the structural economic vulnerability resulting from natural or external shocks we first explain how vulnerability affects growth development and poverty reduction particularly in small developing countries we then examine how the evi has been designed and how it can be used to compare sids and ldcs we argue that evi is a relevant tool not only for identification of ldcs but also for geographical aid allocation to favour vulnerable countries including ldcs and sids even though not all sids qualify as ldcs

disrupting demand for commercial seed input subsidies in malawi and zambia summary this study uses nationally representative household level panel data from malawi and zambia to identify the determinants of subsidized maize seed and fertilizer receipt and to estimate how input subsidies affect households commercial purchases of improved maize seed varieties in both countries we find that households in areas where the ruling party won the last presidential election acquire significantly more subsidized inputs than other households results also indicate that each additional kilogram of subsidized maize seed acquired by a household reduces its commercial improved maize seed purchases by 0 58 kg in malawi and by 0 49 kg in zambia on average

how high are rates of return to fertilizer evidence from field experiments in kenya the idea that peasant farmers are rational profit maximizers has been a staple of development economics since theodore schultz 1964 it has also been influential in shaping policy for example agricultural experts have stressed the importance of fertilizer use in raising agricultural yields pointing to impressive results on experimental farms and to huge differences in agricultural productivity across countries with different levels of fertilizer use robert evenson and douglas gollin 2003 historically many countries subsidized fertilizer in response but economists have been skeptical of claims that farmers are leaving money on the table noting that fertilizer may not have the same returns on real world farms as on experimental farms that returns to fertilizer may be low for many farmers even if they are high on average tavneet suri 2007 that fertilizer may require complementary inputs or may be risky many countries have withdrawn or scaled back fertilizer psychology and development theory and experimental evidence

the effect of private antitrust litigation on the stock market valuation of the firm the authors study the implications for shareholder wealth of interfirm antitrust litigation and how the costs of the dispute affect the propensity to settle upon filing defendants experience significant wealth losses that are ten million dollars larger than the wealth gains of plaintiffs financial distress behavioral constraints and follow on suits are sources of wealth leakage and influence settlement behavior since the threat of a monetary transfer has little power to explain either wealth effects or the likelihood of settlement the central concern of defendants may be the potential prohibition of profitable business practices copyright 1995 by american economic association

the terms of trade the real exchange rate and economic fluctuations this paper examines the relationship between terms of trade and business cycles using a three sector intertemporal equilibrium model and a large multicountry database results show that terms of trade shocks account for nearly one half of actual gdp variability the model explains weak correlations between net exports and terms of trade the harberger laursen and metzler effect and produces large and weakly correlated deviations from purchasing power parity and real interest rate parity terms of trade shocks cause real appreciations and positive interest differentials although productivity shocks have opposite effects the puzzle that welfare gains of international asset trading are negligible is left unresolved copyright 1995 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

input use and market development in sub saharan africa an overview abstract this paper sets forth the background and objectives of this special issue trends in input use since 1980 are reviewed and a conceptual framework is presented for analyzing problems of input use and formulating strategies for resolving them reasons for low levels of fertilizer use by smallholder farmers are summarized briefly the essential points of the papers in the special issue and their implications for further expansion of input use in sub saharan africa are then outlined

on the welfare cost of economic fluctuations in developing countries macroeconomic fluctuations are much stronger in developing countries than in the united states yet while a large literature debates the welfare cost of economic fluctuations in the united states it remains an open question how large that cost is in developing countries using several models we provide such a measure we find that the welfare cost of consumption volatility per se is far from trivial and averages a substantial multiple of the corresponding u s estimate moreover in many poor countries the welfare gain from eliminating volatility may in fact exceed the welfare gain from an additional percentage point of growth forever

are kenyan farmers under utilizing fertilizer implications for input intensification strategies and research abstract it is widely perceived that african farmers are under utilizing inorganic fertilizer however very little long term evidence from farmers fields accounting for variations in agro ecological conditions has been assembled to back this claim or determine the conditions under which it is true using five waves of nationwide household survey data from kenya covering 13 years we estimate the relative and absolute profitability of nitrogen application rates on maize fields and compare these profitability conditions to observed nitrogen use patterns over time in general we find that farmers are consistently and steadily increasing towards risk adjusted economically optimal rates of fertilizer application over time and that in the most agriculturally productive areas farmers application rates on maize sometimes exceed rates that maximize profitability fertilizer use rates may nevertheless be profitably raised in these areas but doing so will require the adoption of complementary inputs and management practices that raise maize response rates to fertilizer application this motivates a more holistic approach to input intensification strategies in the region

elected versus appointed policymakers evidence from city treasurers abstract this paper investigates whether the method of selecting public officials affects policy making i compare the policy choices of bureaucrat city treasurers and politician city treasurers who are selected and held accountable in very different ways the analysis draws on rich data from california to examine whether cities with appointed or elected city treasurers pay lower costs to borrow the results demonstrate that having appointive treasurers reduces a city s cost of borrowing by 19 31 percent holding officials directly accountable to voters can result in lower levels of performance in complex policy areas

do fertilizer subsidies crowd out organic manures the case of malawi we assess the impacts of the malawian farm input subsidy program on manure use at the farm plot level using more than 3 000 farm plot observations from six districts in central and southern malawi over three years 2006 2007 and 2009 the probabilities and intensities of manure use were investigated with the correlated random effects cre probit and tobit models the endogeneity of access to fertilizer subsidies and fertilizer use intensity was controlled for with a control function approach both the probability of manure use and intensity of manure use were positively correlated with the intensity of fertilizer use a 1 increase in fertilizer use intensity is associated with a 1 94 1 96 increase in the intensity of manure use outside the subsidy program and a 0 62 1 66 increase in manure use with the subsidy program a 1 increase in average fertilizer price was associated with a 0 43 0 76 increase in the probability of manure use and a 3 5 5 3 increase in the intensity of manure use

the cost of business cycles under endogenous growth robert e lucas jr argued that the welfare gains from reducing aggregate consumption volatility are negligible subsequent work that revisited his calculation continued to find small welfare benefits further reinforcing the perception that business cycles do not matter this paper argues instead that fluctuations can affect welfare by affecting the growth rate of consumption i show that fluctuations can reduce growth starting from a given initial consumption which can imply substantial welfare effects as lucas himself observed empirical evidence suggests the welfare effects are likely to be substantial about two orders of magnitude greater than lucas original estimates

evidence production in adversarial vs inquisitorial regimes abstract the advantage of the adversarial regime of judicial decision making is the superior information of the parties while the advantage of an idealized inquisitorial regime is its neutrality we model the tradeoff by characterizing the properties of costly estimators used by each regime the adversarial regime uses an extremal estimator that is based on the difference between the most favorable pieces of evidence produced by each party the inquisitorial regime uses the sample mean we find that neither regime dominates the other

winners and losers in the commodity lottery the impact of terms of trade growth and volatility in the periphery 1870 1939 abstract most countries in the periphery specialized in the export of just a handful of primary products for most of their history some of these commodities have been more price volatile than others and those with more volatility have grown much more slowly relative to the industrial leaders and to other primary product exporters this fact helps explain the growth puzzle noted by easterly kremer pritchett and summers more than a decade ago that the contending fundamental determinants of growth institutions geography and culture exhibit far more persistence than do the growth rates they are supposed to explain using a new panel database for 35 countries this paper estimates the impact of terms of trade volatility and secular change on country performance between 1870 and 1939 volatility was much more important for growth than was secular change and accounts for a substantial degree of the divergence in incomes within the sample of small commodity dependent periphery nations as well as under performance of the periphery as a whole relative to such nations as the us and western europe or core one channel of impact seems to be the adverse effect of volatility on foreign investment it appears that the terms of trade effects were asymmetric between core and periphery