different paths to free trade the gains from regionalism we compare free trade reached through expanding regional trading blocs to free trade accomplished by multilateral negotiation with sunk costs the outcomes are different trade in an imperfectly competitive good flows disproportionately more between the original members of a regional agreement even after free trade is reached they secure a higher welfare level from regionalism than from free trade achieved multilaterally nonmembers however reach a lower welfare level a surprising result is that world welfare during free trade is greater when it is achieved by the regional path we conclude with some empirical evidence from the european union that is consistent with the model

hysteresis in international trade a general equilibrium analysis abstract this paper presents a simple general equilibrium model of hysteresis in international trade i e temporary exchange rate fluctuations can have persistent effects on trade flows besides supporting earlier partial equilibrium results the analysis bears out a conjecture by baldwin and krugman 1989 that a hysteretic shift in trade flows will cause a hysteretic shift in the equilibrium exchange rate a positive demand shock which leads to a temporary exchange rate appreciation is followed by a persistent depreciation another implication is that equity values in the country with a positive demand shock will ultimately fall below their pre shock level temporarily high profits reduce future profitability by attracting competitors who remain in the market after the shock has receded jel f10

operating flexibility global manufacturing and the option value of a multinational network the multinational corporation is a network of activities located in different countries the value of this network derives from the opportunity to benefit from uncertainty through the coordination of subsidiaries which are geographically dispersed we model this coordination as the operating flexibility to shift production between two manufacturing plants located in different countries a stochastic dynamic programming model treats explicitly this flexibility as equivalent to owning an option the value of which is dependent upon the real exchange rate the model is extended to analyze hysteresis effects and within country growth options we show that the management of across border coordination has led to changes in the heuristic rules used for performance evaluation and transfer pricing

the income and terms of trade effects a permanent versus transitory decomposition in us trade abstract this paper develops an empirical analysis of the us trade balance with particular attention to the distinction between permanent and transitory disturbances to income and the terms of trade arising from real monetary and demand supply shocks the results indicate that the income effects on the trade balance differ remarkably depending on whether a given change is permanent or transitory for instance a permanent increase in income deteriorates the trade balance whereas a transitory increase improves it the results are contrasted to the predictions of the mundell fleming dornbusch model and intertemporal models jel f32

exchange rate pass through in two period duopoly abstract this paper analyzes the issue of exchange rate pass through in a two period model of duopolistic competition with differentiated products and constant marginal costs conditions on import demand elasticities for normal and perverse pass through respectively are derived for the case of perfect and imperfect capital mobility in an example with linear demand it is additionally shown that temporary exchange rate fluctuations cause current as well as future price changes which do not necessarily point in the same direction this model reproduces features of the macroeconomic j curve at a microeconomic level

import price adjustments with staggered import contracts abstract in this paper we develop a linear rational expectations equilibrium model of staggered import contracts with incomplete exchange rate indexing to explain the slow and moderate adjustment of import prices and quantities to exchange rate changes the existence and stability of the equilibrium are proved by establishing equivalence between the solution to the equilibrium problem and the solution of an optimal linear regulator problem simulation analysis illustrates that the nature of the adjustment of import prices and quantities to exchange rate changes depends crucially on the length of the contract and the length of the delivery lag thus an alternative to the hysteresis explanation of the slow and moderate adjustment of import prices and quantities to exchange rate changes is established the new explanation however has significantly different implications for exchange rate management and trade policies

the emergence of iran in the world car industry an estimation of its export potential in the past 10 years iran has been emerging as a major car producer in the world however due to delays in economic reforms iranian car exports have not increased as much as production this paper presents a first estimation of the iranian export potential in the car industry based on new theoretical developments of the gravity equation an empirical bilateral trade model is proposed it includes sectoral variables car production import tariffs as well as other original variables such as expectations and hysteresis we then develop a dataset which includes the 40 major car exporting countries in the world 34 importing countries a 10 year time period as well as four car production groups the model is then estimated by using alternative panel data estimators such as those of hausman and taylor and dynamic estimators as well as transformed variables estimators export potential is finally calculated from the residuals of the model results show that iranian current car exports are about 100 times less than their fitted values this indicates that there is a significant export potential for iran especially toward india china russia as well as smaller neighbours turkey pakistan central asian countries as a result iran could become the major auto supplier in the middle east however this requires the completion and success of ongoing economic reforms

conditional exchange rate volatility and the volume of foreign trade evidence from seven industrialized countries there has long been a concern over the volatility of exchange rates and their impact on the volume of foreign trade however very little attention has been paid to the choice of an appropriate volatility variable as well as the proper specification of the trade equation the sample standard deviation of the exchange rate has been used as a proxy for exchangerate uncertainty in empirical studies that examine the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on the volume of foreign trade see for example akhtar and hilton 1 and gotur 27 these studies have provided conflicting evidence on this issue it has been argued that use of the sample standard deviation is inappropriate because the empirical distribution of exchange rates is not normal 22 10 in this regard subsequent empirical research 12 36 40 41 11 has employed a moving standard deviation of the rate of change of the exchange rate as a proxy for exchange rate uncertainty chowdhury 11 obtained a clear pattern of results that support the hypothesis that the higher volatility of exchange rates led to a reduction in international trade transactions after the breakdown of the bretton woods system in march 1973 other studies have reported ambiguous results 2 the moving standard deviation used in these studies has been criticized in the literature for a ignoring relevant information on the random process generating exchange rates 18 b underestimating the effect of volatility on decisions 52 c distorting the measurement of the volatility variable by smoothing the series 9 and d injecting an element of arbitrariness into the calculation through decisions about the order m of the moving average 43 3

two monies two markets variability and the option to segment abstract this paper examines the decision to create barriers to arbitrage for a firm selling on two national markets real exchange rate changes affect the incentives to create such barriers since they influence the optimal prices sunk costs of market segmentation imply that the option to segment markets is more valuable the greater the variability of the real exchange rate if a monetary union reduces future real exchange rate variability it could thus stimulate market integration

exchange rate volatility and foreign trade evidence from thirteen ldc s this article investigates empirically the impact of real exchange rate volatility on the export flows of 13 less developed countries ldc s over the quarterly period 1973 1996 estimates of the cointegrating relations are obtained using johansen s multivariate procedure estimates of the short run dynamics are obtained for each country using the error correction technique the major results show that increases in the volatility of the real effective exchange rate approximating exchange rate uncertainty exert a significant negative effect on export demand in both the short run and the long run in each of the 13 ldc s these effects may result in significant reallocation of resources by market participants

insignificant and inconsequential hysteresis the case of the u s bilateral trade this paper casts doubt on the validity of the hysteresis hypothesis as an explanation of the persistent u s trade deficits in the 1980s the authors propose two tests to investigate two different implications of the hypothesis the first implication is that cumulative changes in exchange rates in addition to current exchange rate levels are important determinants of trade flows the second implication is that foreign exporting firms perceptions of exchange rate volatility will affect their decisions to enter or exit the market the authors find little support for either aspect of the hysteresis hypothesis copyright 1993 by mit press

asymmetric exchange rate exposure theory and evidence abstract this paper tests the hypothesis that exchange rate exposure is asymmetric over appreciation depreciation cycles more specifically it investigates whether returns on nine sector indexes across four major countries are asymmetrically affected by exchange rate movements the results show that in several instances exposure is asymmetric asymmetries are found to be more pronounced in the financial and non cyclical sectors possible theoretical explanations are provided regarding the particular type of exposure found across sectors and countries

editor s introduction korea s transition to maturity korea is currently undergoing a spectacular transformation as measured by any one of a number of yardsticks politically this nation of 42 million people is approaching its destiny with democracy with increasing anticipation financially it has the sole distinction among the highly indebted developing countries of actually turning the corner on external debt and reducing it in absolute terms structurally it has managed to transform itself from an assembly economy to a high quality export producer and socially it now confronts a host of new but not completely unwelcome economic problems associated with rapidly rising living standards and even more rapidly rising expectations as attested to by labor demands commitments to universal health insurance and recently enacted minimum wage and pension legislation there can be no doubt in any case that korea is on the brink of the final stage of development that will bring it to the ranks of the lower oecd economies before the end of the century despite this optimistic prognosis korea continues to face substantial hurdles some problems are perennial for developing countries particularly those following an export orientation such as protectionism in major markets while others are new such as dealing with the recently emerging current account surplus korean observers have every confidence that traditional pragmatism will dominate decisionmaking on these policy issues however there is equal concern that political events may short circuit the economy s remarkable performance of 1986 and 1987 central to the economy s performance in the postelection period will be the government s ability to deal with economic and social demands from various segments of society and maintain effective management control korea has managed to post very respectable real growth in the last five years with gnp increments averaging 8 7 since 1982 and to move its current account balance through successively smaller deficits and into surplus in 1986 following spectacular performance in 1986 12 5 real growth and a 4 5 billion surplus 1987 has all the indications of being almost as strong despite labor strife and the ensuing large boosts in wages throughout the period the won continued to appreciate indeed exchange rate management has taken on a curious twist in the korean context as trade partners like the united states push for revaluation in hopes of stemming korea s export success it is in fact somewhat ironic that just as korean industrial policy has taken a major step towards less intervention the imperfections of the global trading environment signal a new and potentially much more direct role for government in managing trade diplomacy the quality of economic management has been one of korea s major achievements it can be seen not only in the coordination of economic policies and for this the economic planning board headed by successively effective deputy prime ministers can be duly credited but also in the responses to economic shocks which have included timely and successful adjustment programs and in the implementation of far reaching reforms of the trade regime and to a lesser extent the financial sector economic management also extended into the arena of industrial policy largely through financial sector interventions where market signals were often directed or amplified this may lead to the curious paradox that while korea s economic agents respond so well to market signals according to some ca has not yet firmly taken root in korea 3 italism there are legitimate questions about the nature of economic management in the future as technocrats who have so far been insulated from direct scrutiny as steinberg points out now become more accountable to the public this volume s opening essays kim s strategy and vision for the future and steinberg s speculation of new socio political tensions heightening nationalism and greater fragmentation provide an often neglected

production and investment decisions under sunk cost and temporal uncertainty building on glenn johnson s asset fixity theory this article introduces sunk cost and temporal uncertainty in jorgenson s neoclassical theory of investment under the assumption of risk neutrality we show sunk cost and temporal risk affect the implicit rental value of capital and investment and entry exit decisions results suggest there are important interactions between sunk cost and the effects of temporal uncertainty on production behavior

platform investments and volatile exchange rates direct investment in the u s by japanese electronic companies this study examines the effects of previous entry on the subsequent decisions of japanese electronics companies to invest in the united states by gathering data at the firm level the empirical analysis provides a fine grain sorting out of firm and industry effects on foreign direct investment decisions the findings show that investment behavior is highly heterogeneous across firms and reflects their individual technological capabilities and their history of previous investments in the united states real exchange rate levels are also important the results suggest that initial investments serve as platforms for subsequent entry with the timing of entry triggered by movements in real exchange rates copyright 1996 by mit press

price leadership and discrimination in the european car market this paper explains differences in the price of the same good in different markets in the authors model n producers each play the role of stackelberg leader on their own market and there is one market with no domestic producer the authors show that even without demand differences between markets pretax prices will be higher on markets where there are high cost domestic producers and where taxes are low evidence from the european car market based on time series for individual models supports these results furthermore as the model suggests exchange rate changes are not passed through to car prices copyright 1990 by blackwell publishing ltd

the imperfect price reversibility of non transport oil demand in the oecd abstract this paper examines the price reversibility of oecd non transport oil demand and its components residual heavy fuel oil non transport distillates and other non transport oil products our purpose is to determine the extent to which the reductions in demand following the oil price increases of the 1970s have been and will be reversed by the price cuts of the 1980s the analysis is based on an econometric model which utilizes price decomposition methods to measure separately the effects of price increases and price decreases these methods allow empirical testing of irreversibility and hysteresis and should be applicable in other areas of economics where asymmetry of response or persistence of effect are evident based on the statistical evidence we reject the conventional specification of demand being perfectly price reversible we conclude that the response to the price cuts of the 1980s has been significantly smaller than to the price increases of the 1970s demand has followed a ratchet process price increases reduced demand substantially when demanders conserved and switched away from oil but price cuts did not reverse this process completely if at all this has important implications for projections of oil demand especially under low price assumptions the oecd s dependency on oil will not increase as much as some analysts may have feared there is however another aspect of imperfect price reversibility the possibilities of adjusting to future price rises may not be as great as they have been in the past the easiest and least costly demand savings have already been made and oil has been replaced by other energy sources in many uses what s done is done

the impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade reduced form estimates using the garch in mean model abstract in this paper we use a multivariate garch in mean model of the reduced form of multilateral exports to examine the relationship between nominal exchange rate volatility and export flows and prices the model imposes rationality on perceived exchange rate volatility unlike conventional two step strategies tests are performed for five industrialized countries over the post bretton woods era we find that the garch conditional variance has a statistically significant impact on the reduced form equations for all countries for most of the countries the magnitude of the effect is stronger for export prices than quantities in addition the estimated magnitude of the impact of volatility on exports is not robust to using the conventional estimation strategy jel f41 f31

towards a new trade policy between the usa and middle east countries estimating trade resistance and export potential at the time of the conclusion of free trade areas ftas between the usa and middle east and north african mena countries there is a lack of literature concerning the measurement of the current us export position with regards to these countries and the us export potential in this area from recent developments of gravity models this paper derives an estimable equation which includes various trade resistance variables notably border effects multilateral resistance as well as specific bilateral effects the model is tested in order to scrutinise the impact of these variables on us exports to mena countries as well as the us export potential in this area to that end a selection of panel data specifications is proposed mainly hausman and taylor models as well as arellano and bond dynamic models results unambiguously indicate that as compared to the other oecd countries the usa suffers from a substantial trade integration deficit with mena countries this is reflected by the strongly negative values of the us mena bilateral fixed effects as well as the high bilateral border effects in addition the estimated actual potential us export ratio to these countries is only 0 76 therefore implementing an fta between the usa and mena countries may allow the former to progressively improve its export position in this area this would also help mena countries diversify their supplying sources

persistent trade effects of large exchange rate shocks this paper presents a theoretical basis for the argument that large exchange rate shocks such as the 1980s dollar cycle may have persistent effects on trade flows and the equilibrium exchange rate itself we begin with a partial equilibrium model in which large exchange rate fluctuations lead to entry or exit decisions that are not reversed when the currency returns to its previous level then we develop a simple model of the feedback from hysteresis in trade to the exchange rate itself here we see that a large capital inflow which leads to an initial appreciation can result in a persistent reduction in the exchange rate consistent with trade balance

an experimental test of trade hysteresis market exit and entry decisions in the presence of sunk costs and exchange rate uncertainty in the 1980s the unresponsiveness of trade flows to exchange rate swings inspired models in which sunk costs in combination with exchange rate instability generate trade hysteresis meaning that temporary exchange rate misalignments have a persistent effect on trade this paper furnishes an empirical complement to the theoretical literature first it describes a computerized experiment in which 100 subjects generated over 1000 decisions on market entry and exit under conditions congruent with a model of trade hysteresis developed by paul krugman secondly these data are used to test the main predictions arising from the model our experiment bears out the main qualitative predictions of krugman s model in particular that firms trading policy is unresponsive to exchange rate movements over a wide range of values moreover in the repeated decision setting of the experiment we find evidence that the stochastic behaviour of subjects entry and exit price decisions tend towards consensus as they gain

multinational investment under uncertainty in the chemical processing industries this study uses a sample of chemical processing industries to evaluate the effect of two types of uncertainty on the decision to invest in an industry it analyzes the effects of relative price uncertainty through exchange rates and input prices and demand uncertainty on the probability of expansion in a particular country the study then focuses on the behavior of individual companies and distinguishes companies by whether or not they are multinationals in the production of the product the results confirm previous evidence that exchange rate uncertainty has a negative effect on capacity expansions by domestic corporations and no effect on investment by multinational corporations finally the study also shows that expansions of production capacity in this industry are more likely to occur in those countries where capacity utilization is higher

foreign direct investment exchange rate variability and demand uncertainty variable real exchange rates influence the location of production facilities chosen by a multinational with risk averse investors and fixed productive factors parent companies should not be indifferent to production location even with identical expected costs of production across countries if a nonnegative correlation exists between export demand and exchange rate shocks the multinational optimally locates some productive capacity abroad the capacity share abroad increases as exchange rate volatility rises and becomes more correlated with export demand shocks these results are confirmed using quarterly u s bilateral foreign direct investment flows with canada japan and the united kingdom copyright 1995 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

exchange rate hysteresis large versus small policy misalignments abstract using a monetary model in the spirit of dornbusch 1976 and a sunk cost model of trade hysteresis we show that a sufficiently large policy misalignment can induce hysteresis in the trade balance and thereby alter the steady state real exchange rate hence exchange rate dynamics are path dependent since hysteresis in our model can entail industrial dislocation and the scrapping of sunk assets we suggest that these factors constitute a welfare cost of large policy misalignments that have not been considered formally additionally since the long run exchange rate is path dependent standard empirical tests of exchange rate models may involve a misspecification

entry by foreign firms in the united states under exchange rate uncertainty this paper tests the effects that real exchange rate fluctuations had on foreign direct investment into the united states during the 1980s using a sample of foreign investments in sixty one four digit sic u s wholesale industries this paper finds exchange rate volatility to be negatively correlated with the number of foreign investments that occur in these industries this negative effect is most pronounced for industries where sunk investments in physical and intangible assets are relatively high although exchange rate volatility deters investment from all countries its effect was most significant for investments by japanese companies copyright 1993 by mit press

time intensive r d and unbalanced trade abstract this paper highlights a novel mechanism that generates global imbalances it develops a general equilibrium trade model with one of two countries having a comparative advantage in a sector whose production is characterized by i rapid anticipated demand growth and ii large up front r d costs international funding of the accruing r d costs generates capital inflows in the r d stage which are balanced by subsequent outflows importantly sector level growth does not generate growth differentials between countries typically regarded as rationales of global imbalances additionally it is shown that a trade surplus can coincide with appreciations of the real exchange rate i argue that switzerland s trade surplus which was driven to record heights during 2010 2014 by pharmaceutical exports exemplifies this mechanism calibrating the model to swiss trade flows underpins this argument

exchange rate pass through at the product level we use a detailed database to investigate exchange rate pass through at the product level for a large number of countries the empirical analysis suggests that pricing behaviours are dichotomous with complete pass through in around 25 of sectors and significant pricing to market in the remaining ones average long run pass through coef ficient is close to 80 this result hides a strong heterogeneity of pass through behaviours across sectors even when composition effects are controlled for average pass through varies across importing countries the econometric analysis shows that pass through tends to be higher in volatile environments in less developed countries in weakly integrated markets jel classification f12 f31 f41

capital asset price dynamics heterogeneity and hysteresis abstract in this study we investigate the price determination in asset markets with heterogeneous risk neutral investors that face costs of portfolio adjustment we develop a price function mapping stochastic dividends into prices asset prices exhibit hysteresis in the sense that large dividend changes cause a level shift in the relationship between asset prices and dividends moreover the market as a whole reacts as if there was risk aversin the higher the variance of the stochastic process driving the evolution of the dividends the higher is the average expected return in the market

does exchange rate volatility affect import flows in g 7 countries evidence from cointegration models this paper provides new evidence on the long run relationship between imports and exchange rate volatility in g 7 countries the period examined is 1973 2 through 1995 1 cointegration analyses are based on johansen s 1991 1994 approach and robust single equation methods of stock and watson 1993 and phillips and loretan 1991 in conformity with theoretical considerations the results indicate that exchange rate volatility has a significant negative effect on the volume of imports of most g 7 countries whereas for canada it is positive and significant these findings are reasonably robust in terms of measures of exchange rate volatility and different estimation methods

does the federal reserve care about the rest of the world many economists are accustomed to thinking about federal reserve policy any economists are accustomed to thinking about federal reserve policy in terms of the institution s dual mandate which refers to price stability in terms of the institution s dual mandate which refers to price stability and high employment and in which the exchange rate and other interand high employment and in which the exchange rate and other international variables matter only insofar as they infl uence infl ation and the output national variables matter only insofar as they infl uence infl ation and the output gap which is to say not very much gap which is to say not very much in fact this conventional view is heavily shaped by the distinctive and pecuin fact this conventional view is heavily shaped by the distinctive and peculiar circumstances of the last three decades when the infl uence of international liar circumstances of the last three decades when the infl uence of international considerations on fed policy has been limited in this paper i will discuss how the considerations on fed policy has been limited in this paper i will discuss how the federal reserve paid signifi cant attention to international considerations in its fi rst federal reserve paid signifi cant attention to international considerations in its fi rst two decades followed by relative inattention to such factors in the two plus decades two decades followed by relative inattention to such factors in the two plus decades that followed then back to renewed attention to international aspects of monetary that followed then back to renewed attention to international aspects of monetary policy in the 1960s before the recent period of benign neglect of the international policy in the 1960s before the recent period of benign neglect of the international dimension this longer perspective is a reminder that just because the fed has not dimension this longer perspective is a reminder that just because the fed has not attached priority to international aspects of monetary policy in the recent past we attached priority to international aspects of monetary policy in the recent past we have no guarantee that it will not do so in the future indeed i will argue in the have no guarantee that it will not do so in the future indeed i will argue in the conclusion that in the next few decades international aspects are likely to play a conclusion that in the next few decades international aspects are likely to play a larger role in federal reserve policy making larger role in federal reserve policy making 1

some dynamic aspects of food standards food standards have existed since the beginning of trade and exchange but have increased and expanded in recent years affecting global and local value chains this has triggered vigorous debates on the impacts on trade and development standards may simultaneously enhance economic efficiency and redistribute rents complicating policy analysis and implying that the economics and the politics of standards are often hard to separate while substantial research has contributed important insights dynamic aspects of standards have not received much attention i present a framework to illustrate some dynamic economic and political aspects of standards in closed and open economies this framework integrates changes over time in preferences implementation costs and protectionist pressures as determinants of standards and suggests explanations for persistent differences in food standards across countries hysteresis in standards can persist due to protectionist motives even if the initial standards were not introduced for protectionist reasons i use some historical cases to document both the persistence and adjustment of standards over time and with international integration

panel unit root tests of purchasing power parity for price indices abstract this paper adopts four panel unit root tests to evaluate ppp over the floating period for six different price indices results generally support ppp albeit the speeds of adjustment differ considerably between price indices and test procedures the degree of contemporaneous and serial correlation as well as heterogeneity of the series in the panel affect stationarity and the speed of mean reversion

export propensities and intensities of small and medium manufacturing enterprises in south africa the basic premise of this study is that enterprise linkages export marketing and sunk costs significantly affect the propensities to export and intensities of exporting of small and medium manufacturing enterprises in south africa the hypothesis tested was that small and medium manufacturing enterprises break through into foreign markets with relative ease when involved in linkages because they facilitate information flows thereby easing the international marketing burden on the shoulders of individual enterprise units a theoretical perspective adopted by this study was that small and medium sized enterprises involved in enterprise linkages that have intermediaries are in a better position to enter and exit international markets empirical testing using survey data confirms this this study therefore recommends that export promotion initiatives should take these factors into account there are many possibilities discussed in this study the important point is that there is now clarity about the main hindrances to probabilities of exporting and export intensities of small and medium manufacturing enterprises in south africa by implication export market intelligence should be prioritized

a supply and demand based volatility model for energy prices abstract this paper proposes a new volatility model for energy prices using the supply demand relationship which we call a supply and demand based volatility model we show that the supply curve shape in the model determines the characteristics of the volatility in energy prices it is found that the inverse box cox transformation supply curve reflecting energy markets causes the inverse leverage effect i e positive correlation between energy prices and volatility the model is also used to show that an existing g arch m model has the foundations on the supply demand relationship additionally we conduct the empirical studies analyzing the volatility in the u s natural gas prices

factor market barriers are trade barriers gains from trade in 1992 abstract this paper argues that some factor market barriers act as trade barriers consequently removal of such barriers can create gains from trade even in countries which already have free trade in goods the basic argument is simple for some types of goods international vertical integration is essential to efficient international trade that is to say for such goods it is cheaper to conduct trade on an intra firm basis rather than an inter firm basis for instance in the u s roughly half of all imports are intra firm in such industries those factor market barriers which raise the cost of foreign control of local assets have the effect of raising the cost of trade consequently removing such barriers can lead to gains from trade

exchange rate regimes and the price of exchange rate risk abstract we investigate the price of exchange rate risk in the us stock market across exchange rate regimes we find that exchange rate risk is a priced factor and that the sign of the price of risk is affected by the exchange rate regime the results have important implications for risk management policies

an integrated model of multinational flexibility and financial hedging abstract we construct a model of a multinational firm with flexibility in sourcing its production and with the ability to use financial markets to hedge exchange rate risk agency costs generated by the firm s capital structure create a link between the firm s financial policy and its production decisions the firm s need for hedging is directly related to the degree of flexibility and the production plan it chooses is a function of the hedging strategy it employs consequently the firm s ability to exploit its competitive position depends upon the degree to which its flexibility is matched by the construction of an appropriate hedging strategy

the present relevance of hume s open economy monetary dynamics david hume s monetary economics has remained a source of sustained controversy rival interpretations situate his work at the fountainhead of the quantity theory of money the monetary approach to the balance of payments and the post keynesian analysis of inflation recent contributions to the literature have explicitly modeled several aspects of his monetary writings but have not placed his controversial discussion of output and monetary dynamics within all open economy analysis this paper does so and contrasts rival specifications and interpretations of humean open economy output dynamics copyright 1995 by royal economic society

determinants of japanese direct investment in us manufacturing industries abstract a hybrid model of direct investment is developed from an asset portfolio model and an industrial organization model of investment encompassing tests using disaggregated data validate the hybrid model while its two component models are rejected by at least some of the data the exchange rate is found to be an important explanatory variable for direct investment in some but not all of us industries equity purchase is more likely in r d intensive industries in privately held companies and in highly concentrated industries plant and equipment investment is more likely in industries with increasing returns to scale and in industries experiencing large net export deficits with japan jel f21

exchange rate regimes and trade prices does the ems matter abstract the paper investigates the role of exchange rate regimes on the process of trade adjustment a two period model of a duopoly with consumer switching costs is constructed the perception of economic agents regarding exchange rate stability is explicitly introduced the model is tested using bilateral trade prices data for flows inside and outside the european monetary system ems results suggest that a system of pegged rates like the ems although helpful is not necessary to achieve a smooth process of trade adjustment rather than the type of exchange rate regime it appears that misalignment is the crucial factor

potential foreign competition in us manufacturing abstract trade barriers are falling and firms are competing in increasingly open international markets the data reveal considerable heterogeneity across industries in the intertemporal path of import shares against this backdrop we focus on an issue that is increasingly important for competition policy analysis potential foreign competition inadequate attention to this aspect could result in a biased picture of total competition leading to misguided antitrust decisions drawing on the conceptual framework outlined by landes and posner harvard law review 94 1981 937 we measure potential foreign competition by the intertemporal response of industry import share to industry specific and aggregate economic factors and our estimates indicate wide variation across industries in this dimension a particularly striking finding is that highly concentrated industries which are more likely to be subject to antitrust scrutiny have a greater degree of potential foreign competition than industries with low concentration even though the extent of actual foreign competition is similar across these groups of industries

import sourcing dynamics an integrative perspective the character of import sourcing for manufacturing has changed beyond the reach of current explanatory schemes this study knits several evolving trends in the area of import sourcing into a theoretical framework in order to facilitate research in this under researched topic and expose to practitioners the increasing strategic value of import sourcing

export survival in global production chains in this paper we examine the survival capacity of trade relationships in cross border production chains our main contribution is to show that there are differences in the probability of export interruption between intermediate and final stages along the global value chain finding a lower sensitivity of intermediate goods to the increasing competition from lower income countries in addition the paper also makes a methodological contribution by using time discrete duration models with product country random effects to control for unobservable heterogeneity and by including interactions in the model in order to identify the sources of these differences our estimates show that variables such as eu membership export experience product and market diversification initial trade value destination market size geographical proximity and economic proximity reduce the likelihood of export failure more for intermediate than for final goods being the differential impact particularly higher for the two first variables these results would suggest that factors that reduce uncertainty and search costs and increase trust and reliability among production partners are particularly relevant for intermediate stages fostering the probability of remaining an active member of global production chains

history gravity and international finance abstract we analyse patterns of bilateral financial investment using data on us holdings of foreign bonds we document a history effect in which holdings seven decades ago continue to influence holdings today 10 15 of the cross country variation in us investors foreign bond holdings is explained by holdings 70 years ago plausibly reflecting fixed costs of market entry and exit and endogenous learning this effect is twice as large for bonds denominated in currencies other than the dollar suggesting the existence of even higher fixed costs of initiating us foreign investment in such currencies our findings point to history and path dependence as key sources of financial market segmentation

exchange rates and investment in united states industry the path of the dollar has significantly influenced investment activity in u s industry the effects of both exchange rate levels and exchange rate volatility have been more pronounced in the 1980s than in the 1970s although aggregate investment data mask some of these relationships the effects of exchange rates on investment are most pronounced in the disaggregate data for manufacturing durable goods sectors and nonmanufacturing sectors these relationships also have changed over time in contrast to the conventional wisdom in the 1980s real dollar depreciations appreciations were likely to be associated with investment contractions expansions copyright 1993 by mit press

haircuts or hysteresis sources of movements in real exchange rates abstract we empirically assess the importance of two sources of real exchange rate movements in models where ppp holds only among traded goods real exchange rate variation results from relative price movements within countries an alternative explanation relies on hysteretic price setting and nominal exchange rate changes using disaggregated price data from 11 oecd nations we find some support for the non traded goods models for example prices of haircuts in canada and the united states are unrelated in the long run we find stronger evidence to support models that emphasize sticky prices transportation costs or other impediments to frictionless trade

has greater competition restrained u s inflation this paper shows how increased goods market competition affects the behavior of inflation in a multisector economy by raising the price elasticity of demand increased goods market competition theoretically lowers inflation and makes the aggregate price level less sensitive to aggregate demand shocks we find that proxies for the aggregate degree of goods market competition are statistically and economically significant in short run phillips curve models of core inflation evidence indicates that heightened goods market competition has flattened the slope of the short run expectations augmented phillips curve and slightly lowered the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment nairu

does exchange rate risk affect exports asymmetrically asian evidence abstract this paper tests the hypothesis of asymmetric effects of exchange rate risk with a dynamic conditional correlation bivariate garch 1 1 m model the asymmetry means that exchange rate risk volatility affects exports differently during appreciations and depreciations which may reflect exporter s asymmetric risk perception and hedging behavior using bilateral exports from eight asian countries to the us the real exchange rate risk significantly affects exports for all countries negative or positive in periods of depreciation or appreciation thus policy makers can consider the stability of the exchange rate in addition to its depreciation as a method of controlling export growth

exchange rates and the choice of ownership structure of production facilities the aim of this research is to study the effects of real exchange rates on the long term ownership strategies of production facilities of firms entering foreign markets among the strategies considered are exporting exp joint ventures with local partners jv and wholly owned production facilities wos in the foreign country our research takes a first step in modeling the influence of exchange rates on the choice and dynamic adjustment of such strategies the insights obtained from our modeling analysis are then translated into testable hypotheses and empirically verified with the use of firm level data from u s multinational corporations both at the firm and a more aggregate level an insightful result of our model is the identification of a hysteresis phenomenon that characterizes switching behavior between strategies in the presence of switchover cost the magnitude of the hysteresis band which is a measure of the inertia associated with keeping the current ownership structure is affected by a multiplicity of factors such as exchange rate volatility and market power of the entering firm analytical and numerical results on the effects of such factors on the hysteresis band are provided the four testable hypotheses generated from our modeling analysis are rigorously tested with the use of a multinomial logit model on data obtained from the harvard multinational enterprise database and a data set maintained by the bureau of economic analysis the u s department of commerce the empirical results strongly support our insights that relatively depreciated real exchange rates i e weak home currency favor a the jv over the wos and b exp mode over the wos or jv finally we summarize our results into useful guidelines for global production managers

russia s commercial policy 2008 11 modernization crisis and the wto accession this paper examines the commercial policy of russia during 2008 11 a time of global financial crisis which coincided with an announced russian modernization programme in 2008 russia introduced a development strategy to limit its dependence on natural resources however the government relied heavily on this income for the planned modernization programme the falling price of oil in 2008 9 led to a tightened government budget constraint this situation induced russia towards wider use of more traditional instruments of trade policy such as tariff policy as well as an import substitution strategy the creation of the customs union and a pause in the wto accession process russia has been found by the global trade alert gta initiative to be one of the main users of protectionist policies since november 2008 with the oil price recovery from september 2010 russia had been back in the wto accession process on revised terms and conditions the wto ministerial conference in geneva approved the accession package of the russian federation on 16 december 2011 copyright 2012 oxford university press

monetary and real shocks productive capacity and exchange rate regimes where producers may diversify internationally international diversification is shown to inuuce a positive correlation between the volatility of productivity shocks and investment in the presence of a phillips curve the expected gnp is lower under a floating exchange rate regime than under a fixed exchange rate regime this result applies both for real and monetary shocks attempts to reduce foreign direct investment by capital controls will tend to reduce welfare without affecting our results regarding the ranking of exchange rate regimes implies that in the presence of market power uncertainty tends to reduce investment in the first part of the paper i demonstrate the international diversi fication of production modifies this result foreign direct investment tends to offset the impact of market power on the concavity of the profit function by weakening the relative price effect associated with output changes and by increasing the flexibility of adjusting the variable input hence international diversification of production is shown to induce a positive correlation between the volatility of productivity shocks and investment the second part of the paper utilizes the framework presented in section i to re examine the welfare ranking of exchange rate regimes in the presence of capital mobility as is well appreciated a one dimensional answer regarding the merits of a fixed exchange rate regime will not do justice to the host of issues relevant for making the choice between exchange rate regimes the second part of the paper focuses on one aspect of the debate the linkages between volatility domestic and foreign direct investment and productive capacity a frequent argument in favour of exchange rate stability relates to the potential cost of exchange rate volatility which may work to increase the cost of international trade and to reduce its volume yet efforts to detect the adverse effects of exchange rate volatility on trade volumes in the last two decades have not delivered clear cut results in fact the experience of international trade among the united states canada europe and japan suggests that there is no natural

exchange rate variability and the export demand for malaysia s semiconductors an empirical study this article examines the effects of exchange rate variability on export demand for semiconductors which is the largest sub sector of electronics industry in malaysia as reported by malaysian industrial development authority mida 2004 the empirical results which are estimated based on the johansen s multivariate cointegration tests and error correction model suggest that there is a unique long run relationship among quantities of export relative price real foreign income and real exchange rate variability the major finding of this article is that the variability of real exchange rate has some effect on semiconductor exports in both the long run and the short run in the light of rapid advances in technology in the global markets for electronics products the findings are useful to policy makers for the design and target of appropriate exchange rate and industrial policies to enhance the export competitiveness of semiconductor industry

optimal operating policies in the presence of exchange rate variability we study the structure of the optimal policies for a firm operating plants in different countries the relative costs of production between the plants are assumed to vary over time due to economic and political factors such as exchange rates inflation taxes and tariffs based on the costs the firm can alter the quantity produced in each plant we determine the structure of the optimal policies for deciding when and by how much to alter the production quantities when the switch over costs are linear or step functions regardless of whether the variable production costs are concave or piece wise linear convex and regardless of whether the firm is supplying one or more markets the optimal policy is always a barrier policy the optimal barriers can be determined by using linear programming techniques and the optimal costs can be computed by solving a system of linear equations when the number of optimal barriers is two the optimal expected costs and the condition that determines the optimal barriers are explicitly derived

linear and nonlinear exchange rate exposure abstract this paper presents a new methodological approach to examine exchange rate exposure which takes account of the role of the market portfolio and macroeconomic variables in exposure regressions exchange rate regimes based on periods of depreciation and appreciation and nonlinear exposure within each regime we show that the stock market s own exposure to exchange rates should be taken into account before considering industry exposure in addition we adjust the exchange rate and the stock market for common economy wide factors that are unrelated to exchange rates within this framework we show that exposure to bilateral exchange rates is statistically and economically important and that industries with extensive international trade are more often exposed than industries with low levels of international trade the signs of exposure coefficients in each regime are consistent with the extent to which an industry exports we also show that nonlinear exposure is often statistically and economically significant interestingly there is little evidence that industries are exposed to a currency basket

incorporating daily market uncertainty data into a conventional short run dynamic model the case of the black market exchange rate in iran the effect of market uncertainty on a country s currency while widely recognized is either omitted from mainstream models or addressed using low frequency series which are typically subject to a

trade integration in colombia a dynamic general equilibrium study with new exporter dynamics abstract we study colombia s trade integration over a 30 year period through the lens of a general equilibrium model in which non exporters have access to a risky exporting technology and exporters must invest in accumulating a better exporting technology our model is calibrated to match producer and exporter lifecycles and yields a novel estimate of the various costs of exporting we find the up front costs of starting to export are much lower than in previous analyses but that this technology is quite risky in that most firms that incur the cost do not end up exporting we also find that for existing exporters expanding exports requires sustained export specific investments we then examine the transition following colombia s 89 91 trade reform we show that the relationship between the firm level export intensity and aggregate export intensity disciplines the technology and policy changes accounting for this integration we find that a common decline in tariffs can account for about 75 percent of the growth in exports as a share of manufacturing sales we attribute the remaining 25 percent to an increase in the success of investments in export market access about 10 percent of the increase in trade is accounted for by the endogenous accumulation of an improved exporting technology by existing exporters these changes in policy and exporting technology boost welfare by about 7 1 percent the transition following the reforms is characterized by an overshooting of output and consumption with consumption peaking 15 years after the policy further tariff reductions are expected to increase welfare another 6 2 percent

the timing and probability of fdi an application to us multinational enterprises an option pricing model is employed to analyse the timing of fdi assuming that the firm s profits are determined by the attractiveness of both the home and foreign countries and that attractiveness follows a brownian motion an optimal trigger value of fdi is derived the model shows that contrary to the npv rule fdi entry should be delayed the greater the uncertainty of attractiveness in both locations another important result is that mnes do not regard fdi as a risk diversification tool the results of the model were then tested empirically with us fdi data using labour costs as a proxy for the reciprocal of attractiveness the results support the findings of the analytical model

exchange rate misalignments in duopoly the case of airbus and boeing we examine the effect of exchange rate misalignments on competition in the market for large commercial aircraft this market is a duopoly where players compete in dollar denominated prices while one of them airbus incurs costs mostly in euros we construct and calibrate a simulation model to investigate how companies adjust their prices to deal with the effects of a temporary misalignment and how this affects profit margins and volumes we also explore the effects on the long run dynamics of competition we conclude that due to the duopolistic nature of the aircraft market airbus will pass only a small part of the exchange rate fluctuations on to customers through higher prices moreover due to features specific to the aircraft industry such as customer switching costs and learning by doing even a temporary departure of the exchange rate from its long run equilibrium level may have permanent effects on the industry

the long run decline in the share of agricultural and food products in international trade a gravity equation approach to its causes the objective of this study is to determine the causes of the loss of share of agricultural products and food in international trade the article compares using a gravity model the impact of various factors upon bilateral trade in agricultural products in manufactures and in total trade between 1963 and 2000 for a representative sample of 40 countries the results clearly demonstrate how the low demand elasticity for agricultural products and food the high degree of protectionism to which they were subjected and their meagre share in intra industrial trade are the principal causes of their relatively slow growth