can learning affect exchange rate behavior the case of the dollar in the early 1980 s this paper demonstrates that a change in parameters of the money market that is not immediately understood will affect the behavior of exchange rate forecast errors while the market is learning the analysis is applied to the behavior of u s dollar german mark forecast errors during the early 1980 s when the market appeared to systematically underpredict the strength of the dollar consistent with this observation empirical estimates of implied forecast errors based upon bayesian learning suggest that forecast errors would have been on average negative during the period as the market came to realize the increase in u s money demand

rational expectations changing monetary policy rules and real exchange rate dynamics abstract this paper reexamines the explanatory power of taylor rule fundamentals for real exchange rate determination we assume the agents know the time varying parameters in central bank policy rules the empirical results suggest that a monetary policy rule with regime switching is better able to explain the real deutschemark dollar exchange rate from 1976 to 1998 compared with a fixed regime monetary policy rule the findings show the importance of accounting for the expectation formation effect in changing policy rules as emphasized by the lucas critique ignoring these effects can undermine the value of the rational expectations models

enhancing the internal validity of entrepreneurship experiments by assessing treatment effects at multiple levels across multiple trials abstract treatment effects in entrepreneurship experiments could vary significantly due to environmental uncertainty and individual heterogeneity drawing on critical realism experimental replication is useful for assessing the generalizability of the treatment effects or for confirming treatment effects across diverse entrepreneurship settings yet experiments in entrepreneurship have traditionally relied on single experimental trials and have not considered potential variance in treatment effects across contexts accounting for variance in treatment effects is even more pertinent under higher levels of environmental uncertainty to help assess the contingent effects of treatments across contexts we propose a set of methodological and statistical approaches for entrepreneurship researchers using different types of experimental replications and proposed statistical methods one may draw inferences about treatment effects at the trial the treatment and at the individual level we illustrate the proposed approach using experimental replications across three randomized post test experiments

some issues in the measurement of comparative advantage this paper examines measurement of revealed comparative advantage in the light of recent evidence that such measures appear to yield poor results and of recent theoretical developments evidence is presented that the poor performance of these measures is not likely to be attributable to problems predominantly associated with measurement itself recent theoretical developments make clearer what can be expected of observed trade flows a measure based on theory s ex antepredictions measures the behaviour of the measure is evaluated for a sample of uk industries in 1979

the great appreciation the great depreciation and the purchasing power parity hypothesis abstract although there has been much recent work on purchasing power parity ppp neither univariate nor panel methods have produced strong rejections of unit roots in us dollar real exchange rates for industrialized countries during the post 1973 period we investigate the hypothesis that these non rejections can be explained by one episode the large appreciation and depreciation of the dollar in the 1980s by developing unit root tests which account for this event and maintain long run ppp using panel methods we can strongly reject the unit root null for those countries that adhere to the typical pattern of the dollar s rise and fall

third country effects on the exchange rate abstract predictive regressions for bilateral exchange rates are typically run on variables from the associated bilateral pairs of countries these regressions characteristically have low explanatory power which leaves room for an omitted variables interpretation we test whether these omitted variables are from third countries when third country macro factors are added to bilateral exchange rate regressions they enter significantly and increase the adjusted r 2 a three country exchange rate model illustrates potential channels for third country spillovers to affect the bilateral rate

model uncertainty and exchange rate volatility this article proposes an explanation for shifts in the volatility of exchange rate returns agents are uncertain about the true data generating model and deal with this uncertainty by making inference on the models and their parameters approach i call model learning model learning may lead agents to focus excessively on a subset of fundamental variables consequently exchange rate volatility is determined by the dynamics of these fundamentals and changes as agents alter models i investigate the empirical relevance of model learning and find that the change in volatility of gbp usd in 1993 was triggered by a shift between models

assessing the case for social experiments rs ecent academic debates pit two alternative approaches to policy evaluation against one another the first is the experimental approach based on the random assignment of accepted program applicants to a recipient or treatment group and a non recipient or control group the second is the nonexperimental or econometric approach that uses a variety of microdata sources statistical methods and behavioral models to compare the outcomes of participants in social programs with those of nonparticipants the central question addressed in this paper is whether or not randomized social experiments aid in securing answers to basic questions about the evaluation of social programs there are many distinct and complementary approaches to the study of the impact of public policy including full general equilibrium analysis of policy impacts tinbergen 1956 auerbach and kotlikoff 1987 shoven and whalley 1992 kydland and prescott 1991 and less ambitious partial equilibrium microeconomic structural research programs such as those designed to estimate the impact of taxes on labor supply both approaches offer answers to many interesting counterfactual policy questions but their credibility rests critically on the quality of the empirical input used to generate their answers

trend fundamentals and exchange rate dynamics we estimate a multivariate unobserved components stochastic volatility model to explain the dynamics of a panel of six exchange rates against the us dollar the empirical model is based on the assumption that both countries monetary policy strategies may be well described by taylor rules with a time varying inflation target a time varying natural rate of unemployment and interest rate smoothing the estimates closely track major movements along with important time series properties of real and nominal exchange rates across all currencies considered the model generally outperforms a benchmark model that does not account for changes in trend inflation and trend unemployment authors abstract

exchange rate pass through exchange rate volatility and exchange rate disconnect abstract this paper explores the hypothesis that high volatility of real and nominal exchange rates may be due to the fact that local currency pricing eliminates the pass through from changes in exchange rates to consumer prices exchange rates may be highly volatile because in a sense they have little effect on macroeconomic variables the paper shows the ingredients necessary to construct such an explanation for exchange rate volatility in addition to the presence of local currency pricing we need a incomplete international financial markets b a structure of international pricing and product distribution such that wealth effects of exchange rate changes are minimized and c stochastic deviations from uncovered interest rate parity together it is shown that these elements can produce exchange rate volatility that is much higher than shocks to economic fundamentals and disconnected from the rest of the economy in the sense that the volatility of all other macroeconomic aggregates are of the same order as that of fundamentals

rational speculation and exchange rates abstract models of exchange rates have typically failed to produce results consistent with the key fact that real and nominal exchange rates move in ways not closely connected to current or past macroeconomic variables models that rely on the same shocks to drive fluctuations in macroeconomic variables and exchange rates typically imply counterfactually strong co movements between them we develop a model in which new information leads agents to change their rational beliefs about risk premia on foreign exchange markets these changes in risk premia work through asset markets to cause real and nominal exchange rates to change without corresponding changes in gdp productivity money supplies and other key macro variables

testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination new evidence from a century of data abstract we test the long run monetary model of exchange rate determination for a collection of 14 industrialized countries using data spanning the late nineteenth or early twentieth century to the late twentieth century interestingly we find support for a simple form of the long run monetary model in over half of the countries we consider for these countries we estimate vector error correction models to investigate the adjustment process to the long run monetary equilibrium in the spirit of meese and rogoff journal of international economics 14 1983 3 24 we also compare nominal exchange rate forecasts based on monetary fundamentals to those based on a naive random walk model

on the sustainability of exchange rate target zones with central parity realignments abstract i show that parity realignments alone do not suffice to ensure the long run sustainability of an exchange rate target zone with imperfect credibility due to the gambler s ruin problem however low credibility and frequent realignments can destabilize the exchange rate

us shocks and global exchange rate configurations many academics and observers emphasize that a sharp us dollar depreciation is inevitable for returning the burgeoning us current account deficit to more sustainable levels how may such a us dollar adjustment occur and what may it imply for global exchange rate configurations the paper focuses on the role of us specific economic shocks in the adjustment process and finds that such us shocks have historically exerted a remarkably heterogeneous effect across currencies it shows that this heterogeneity is not only due to policy choices of inflexible exchange rate regimes or to monetary policy but to an important extent is explained by market forces in particular the degree of financial integration foremost in portfolio investment though not by trade this helps explain why it has been in particular the euro and its predecessor currencies as well as other european currencies that have contributed the bulk to the adjustment of the us dollar effective exchange rate over the past 25 years while other flexible currencies have been much less responsive to us shocks the results suggest that currency flexibility is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for achieving a more balanced contribution across currencies to an adjustment of global exchange rate configurations exchange rates are responsive to foreign shocks only to the extent that market mechanisms are in place that make this transmission work which requires in particular that countries have well developed financial markets and are financially integrated these findings have implications for an unwinding of global imbalances and for monetary policy choices and financial market policies in emerging market economies marcel fratzscher

abstraction tendencies and stylised facts a realist approach to economic analysis in his numerous methodological asides and assertions that feature in his more empirically oriented postwar contributions nicholas kaldor makes frequent reference to notions of abstraction tendencies and stylized facts however the employment of such terms seems rarely to be explicitly questioned justified or explicated this paper argues that such notions can be readily explicated and their employment justified through adopting an explicitly realist approach to economic analysis it is also argued that realism represents a serious alternative to current orthodox approaches to economics without suffering from some of the latter s more obvious limitations copyright 1989 by oxford university press

new evidence on the forward premium puzzle the forward premium anomaly exchange rate changes are negatively related to interest rate differentials is one of the most robust puzzles in financial economics we recast the underlying parity relation in terms of lagged forward interest rate differentials documenting a reversal of the anomalous sign on the coefficient in the traditional specification we show that this novel evidence is consistent with recent empirical models of exchange rates that imply exchange rate changes depend on two key variables the interest rate differential and the magnitude of the deviation of the current exchange rate from that implied by purchasing power parity

new estimates of the canadian money stock 1871 1967 in this paper the authors construct historical data series beginning in 1871 for canadian m1 m2 and monetary base the new series are at a monthly frequency and use the bank of canada s definition of the monetary aggregates institutional and reporting changes however make perfect backwards extrapolation of the bank s series impossible there are only end of month data rather than average weekly since january 1994 daily data and the authors cannot precisely match savings accounts at chartered banks and trust companies that are included in the modern monetary aggregates their adjustments for these changes and their impact on the aggregates are documented

a re assessment of the relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rates 1974 1990 abstract this paper uses cointegration techniques and error correction models to re examine the link between real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials the results show that real exchange rates and real interest rates are nonstationary however they are not cointegrated with each other on the other hand the dynamic models indicate that there might be a long run relationship between these variables but this cannot be verified the final conclusion is that there is little empirical evidence in support of a systematic relationship and this result is robust across exchange rates time periods and measures of expected inflation

was it real the exchange rate interest differential relation over the modern floating rate period in this paper we explore the relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials in the united states germany japan and the united kingdom contrary to theories based on the joint hypothesis that domestic prices are sticky and monetary disturbances are predominant we find little evidence of a stable relationship between real interest rates and real exchange rates we consider both in sample and out of sample tests one hypothesis that is consistent with our findings is that real disturbances such as productivity shocks may be a major source of exchange rate volatility this paper investigates the empirical relationship between major currency real exchange rates and real interest rates over the modern post march 1973 flexible rate experience the exchange rates examined here include the dollar mark dollar yen and dollar pound rates our two major findings are as follows first the data do not indicate a strong correspondence between real interest rate differentials short term or long term and real exchange rates this finding appears to conflict with the predictions of most monetary and portfolio balance models of exchange rate determination though the conflict can be substantially reconciled if aggregate disturbances are primarily real in nature i e changes in productivity tastes etc it is true that in many cases the sign of the estimated exchange rate interest rate differential relationship is consistent with the possible predominance of financial market disturbances but the relationship is not stable enough to be statistically significant second although one does find some evidence of a unit root in both real exchange rates and long term but not shortterm real interest differentials these two series do not appear to be linearly cointegrated hence the nonstationarity or near nonstationarity in the two series cannot be attributed to the same factor in section i we briefly describe a class of small scale monetary models of exchange rate determination the importance of this class of models for empirical work derives from its strong predictions about how the exchange rate will move

learning about monetary policy rules abstract we study macroeconomic systems with forward looking private sector agents and a monetary authority that is trying to control the economy through the use of a linear policy feedback rule we use stability under recursive learning a la evans and honkapohja learning and expectations in macroeconomics princeton university press princeton new jersey 2001 as a criterion for evaluating monetary policy rules in this context we find that considering learning can alter the evaluation of alternative policy rules

monetary policy rules based on real time data this paper examines the magnitude of informational problems associated with the implementation and interpretation of simple monetary policy rules using taylor s rule as an example i demonstrate that real time policy recommendations differ considerably from those obtained with ex post revised data further estimated policy reaction functions based on ex post revised data provide misleading descriptions of historical policy and obscure the behavior suggested by information available to the federal reserve in real time these results indicate that reliance on the information actually available to policy makers in real time is essential for the analysis of monetary policy rules

determinants of inward investment in the uk a panel analysis this paper develops an inter industry model of inward investment using a fixed effects approach this demonstrates that when inward investment is investigated in such a framework previous findings relating to the specification of measures of location advantage and ownership advantages no longer hold this also shows that there are some industries that have attracted significant inward investment over time and continue to do so while others are noticeably less successful reasons for this and potential policy measures are briefly discussed

changing monetary policy rules learning and real exchange rate dynamics when the exchange rate is priced by uncovered interest parity and central banks set nominal interest rates according to a reaction function such as the taylor rule the real exchange rate will be determined by expected inflation and the output gap or the unemployment gap of the home and foreign countries this paper examines the implications of these taylor rule fundamentals for real exchange rate determination because the true parameters in central bank policy rules are unknown to the public and change over time the model is presented in the context of a least squares learning environment this simple learning model captures the volatility and the major swings in the real deutschemark euro dollar exchange rate from 1976 to 2007

the monetary exchange rate model as a long run phenomenon abstract pure time series based tests fail to find empirical support for monetary exchange rate models in this paper we apply pooled time series estimation on a forward looking monetary model resulting in parameter estimates which are in compliance with the underlying theory based on a panel version of the engle and granger engle r f granger c w j 1987 co integration and error correction representation estimation and testing econometrica 55 251 276 two step procedure we find that the residuals of the panel based estimated monetary model are stationary this indicates that on a pooled time series level there is cointegration between the exchange rate and the macroeconomic fundamentals of this monetary model

changing beliefs and systematic rational forecast errors with evidence from foreign exchange this paper addresses a new interpretation to the appearance in the early 1980s of systematic errors in forecasting the dollar exchange rate following a change in the process of a fundamental variable market participants revise their beliefs about the process using bayes rule since the market does not immediately recognize the change forecast errors are on average wrong during a period when the market is rationally learning for conservative parameter values the learning behavior of the dollar exchange rate in the early 1980s appears consistent with about half of the dollar s underprediction implied by the forward market copyright 1989 by american economic association

a stochastic dominance analysis of yen carry trades abstract yen carry trades have made headline news for over a decade we examine the profitability of such trades for the period 2001 2009 yen carry trades generated high mean returns and sharpe ratios prior to the recent financial crisis they continued to outperform major stock markets for the full sample period given the non normality of carry trade returns we apply non parametric tests based on stochastic dominance sd to evaluate whether the high returns of yen carry trades are compatible with risk as reflected in returns on us and global stock market indices we apply a general test for sd developed recently by linton maasoumi and whang 2005 to six currencies as well as portfolios of these currencies for a large class of risk averse investors profits from yen carry trades cannot be attributed to risks

taylor rules and the deutschmark dollar real exchange rate we explore the link between an interest rate rule for monetary policy and the behavior of the real exchange rate the interest rate rule in conjunction with some standard assumptions implies that the deviation of the real exchange rate from its steady state depends on the present value of a weighted sum of inflation and output gap differentials the weights are functions of the parameters of the interest rate rule an initial look at german data yields some support for the model

determinants of japanese direct investment in us manufacturing industries abstract a hybrid model of direct investment is developed from an asset portfolio model and an industrial organization model of investment encompassing tests using disaggregated data validate the hybrid model while its two component models are rejected by at least some of the data the exchange rate is found to be an important explanatory variable for direct investment in some but not all of us industries equity purchase is more likely in r d intensive industries in privately held companies and in highly concentrated industries plant and equipment investment is more likely in industries with increasing returns to scale and in industries experiencing large net export deficits with japan jel f21

learning to forecast the exchange rate two competing approaches this paper compares two competing approaches to model foreign exchange market participants behavior statistical learning and fitness learning these learning mechanisms are applied to a set of predictors chartist and fundamentalist rules we examine which of the learning approaches is best in terms of replicating the exchange rate dynamics within the framework of a standard asset pricing model we find that both learning methods reveal the fundamental value of the exchange rate in the equilibrium but only fitness learning creates the disconnection phenomenon and only statistical learning replicates volatility clustering none of the mechanisms is able to produce a unit root process but both of them generate non normally distributed returns

factor movements and commodity trade as complements abstract several models are presented in which factor mobility leads to an increase in the volume of world trade the models share the common characteristic that the basis for trade is something other than differences in relative factor endowments these alternative bases for trade include returns to scale imperfect competition production and factor taxes and differences in production technology taken together the models suggest a more general idea the widely held notion that trade in goods and factors are substitutes is in fact a rather special result which is a general characteristic only of factor proportions models

using business simulation games in regulatory impact analysis the case of policies aimed at reducing nitrogen leaching in the past regulatory impact analysis was predominantly based on the rational choice assumption of a completely informed and exclusively profit maximizing homo oeconomicus real economic actors however are multiple goal and boundedly rational decision makers an exclusive reliance on rational choice models therefore generates the risk that both the pace and the type of behavioural adaptations to changing institutional environments are misjudged against this background this article addresses three questions first can we use business simulation games as a convincing but low cost experimental tool for policy analysis second how do intentionally varied nitrogen extensification schemes impact the behaviour of students who participate in an explorative business simulation study third do nitrogen reduction policies that are framed as voluntary as opposed to prescriptive schemes have a different impact on behaviour even if they lead to the same profits respectively in our business simulation game th

business cycles and the exchange rate system some international evidence this paper investigates the differences in time series behavior of key economic aggregates under alternative exchange rate systems we use a postwar sample of 49 countries to compare the behavior of output consumption trade flows government consumption spending and real exchange rates under alternative exchange rate systems pegged floating and cooperative systems such as the ems we then examine evidence from two particular episodes involving canada and ireland of changes in the exchange rate system aside from greater variability of real exchange rates under flexible than under pegged nominal exchange rate systems we find little evidence of systematic differences in the behavior of macroeconomic aggregates or international trade flows under alternative exchange rate systems these results are of interest because a large class of theoretical models implies that the nominal exchange rate system has important effects on a number of macroeconomic quantities

revisiting the coyne affair a singular event that changed the course of canadian monetary history the coyne affair occurred during the 1959 61 period and led to the resignation of the governor eventually major reforms of the bank of canada act were enacted archival and empirical evidence is used to assess the performance of monetary policy throughout the 1950s in doing so a real time data set is constructed for both canada and the us that permits the estimation of a reaction function i find that while the case against james coyne is not proven there was a brief period when monetary policy was excessively tight and this may well have worsened an already weak economic environment l affaire coyne a eu lieu au cours de la periode 1959 61 et a conduit a la demission du gouverneur de la banque du canada eventuellement des reformes majeures a la loi sur la banque du canada ont ete mises en uvre on utilise des documents d archives et des resultats empiriques pour evaluer la performance de la politique monetaire dans les annees 1950 ce faisant on construit une base de donnees en temps reel pour le canada et les etats unis qui permet de faire l estimation d une fonction de reaction on decouvre que meme si l argumentation developpee contre coyne n est pas prouvee il y a eu une courte periode durant laquelle la politique monetaire a ete excessivement restrictive et que cela peut fort bien avoir entraine la deterioration d une economie deja affaiblie

locational advantage and us foreign direct investment in uk manufacturing the relationship between foreign direct investment fdi and international trade is examined with specific reference to us fdi in the uk four complementary hypotheses are tested on a cross section of uk industries there is evidence of us fdi being located in uk industries which have a revealed comparative advantage and that large market size effects are important on the other hand little evidence was found for the protection jumping and industrial concentration hypotheses

taylor rules and the canadian us equilibrium exchange rate abstract this paper identifies the canadian us equilibrium exchange rate based on a simple structural model of the real exchange rate in which monetary policy follows a taylor rule interest rate reaction function the exchange rate is explained by relative output and inflation as observable variables and by unobserved equilibrium rates as well as unobserved transitory components in output and the exchange rate using canadian data over 1974 2009 we jointly estimate the unobserved components and the structural parameters using the kalman filter and bayesian technique we find that canada s equilibrium exchange rate evolves smoothly and follows a trend depreciation the transitory component is found to be very persistent but much more volatile than the equilibrium rate resulting in few but prolonged periods of currency misalignments

who supports the ecb evidence from eurobarometer survey data this paper contributes empirically to the long debated issue of the legitimacy of the european central bank ecb with regard to european polities using micro level data from the eurobarometer survey we shed light on the socio demographic determinants of public opinion support for the ecb we find that people with higher level of education and income and centre to right wing political orientation tend to support the ecb as well as people with optimistic expectations on the economic situation by contrast the unemployed tend to distrust the ecb the policy relevance of such results is important for ecb s communication strategy with the general public

the uncovered interest parity puzzle exchange rate forecasting and taylor rules abstract recent research has found that the taylor rule fundamentals have power to forecast changes in u s dollar exchange rates out of sample our work casts some doubt on that claim however we find strong evidence of a related in sample anomaly when we include u s inflation in the well known uncovered interest parity regression of the change in the exchange rate on the interest rate differential we find that the inflation variable is highly significant and the interest rate differential is not specifically high u s inflation in one month forecasts dollar appreciation in the subsequent month we introduce a model in which a taylor rule determines monetary policy but in which not only monetary shocks but also liquidity shocks drive nominal interest rates this model can potentially account for the empirical findings

the taylor rule and forecast intervals for exchange rates in this paper we examine the meese rogoff puzzle from a different perspective out of sample interval forecasting while most studies in the literature focus on point forecasts we apply semiparametric interval forecasting to a group of exchange rate models forecast intervals for 10 oecd exchange rates are generated and the performance of the empirical exchange rate models are compared with the random walk our contribution is twofold first we find that in general exchange rate models generate tighter forecast intervals than the random walk given that their intervals cover out of sample exchange rate realizations equally well our results suggest a connection between exchange rates and economic fundamentals economic variables contain information useful in forecasting distributions of exchange rates we also find that the benchmark taylor rule model performs better than the monetary ppp and forward premium models and its advantages are more pronounced at longer horizons second the bootstrap inference framework proposed in this paper for forecast interval evaluation can be applied in a broader context such as inflation forecasting

exchange rate regimes and shifts in inflation persistence does nothing else matter this paper reexamines the findings of george s alogoskoufis and ron smith 1991 who argue that sharp increases in inflation persistence can be attributed to changes in the exchange rate regime using long time series data from the united kingdom the united states canada and sweden the authors suggest that these authors emphasis on a post 1967 shift in inflation persistence is misplaced and that there are other equally good candidates to account for changes in inflation persistence such as wars oil price shocks and central bank reforms this conclusion is supported by recently developed tests that allow for multiple structural shifts at unknown dates

foreign and domestic multinational presence in the uk the determinants of multinational presence in uk manufacturing industry in 1979 are analysed it is argued that maultinational presence may result from strategic interaction as well as other firm and industry characteristics the determinants of both foreign and uk multinational presence are estimated using a dataset that enables both types of multinational to be indentified results show an important effect of both scale and concentration on multinational presence

determinants of foreign direct investment a tale of nine theoretical models abstract this paper presents a review of nine theoretical models of foreign direct investment fdi discussed are early studies of determinants of fdi 1 as well as determinants of fdi based on the neoclassical trade theory 2 ownership advantages 3 aggregate variables 4 the ownership location and internalization advantage framework 5 horizontal and vertical fdi models 6 the knowledge capital model 7 diversified fdi and risk diversification models 8 and policy variables 9 from each of the nine theories the relevant determinants of fdi are derived empirical studies indicate the importance of these determinants in the real world the paper shows that there is not one single theory of fdi but a variety of theoretical models attempting to explain fdi and the location decision of multinational firms therefore any analysis of determinants of fdi should not be based on a single theoretical model instead fdi should be explained more broadly by a combination of factors from a variety of theoretical models such as ownership advantages or agglomeration economics market size and characteristics cost factors transport costs protection risk factors and policy variables

a model of exchange rate dynamics this model treats the exchange rate as an asset price that depends on expectations concerning exogenous real and monetary factors that will affect relative prices and absolute price levels in future periods changes in exchange rates reflect both expected changes in these exogenous factors and changes in expectations occasioned by new information the model explains the random component in exchange rate behavior the source of divergences from purchasing power parity the anticipatory response of exchange rates to future expected disturbances and the causes of exchange rate overshooting

where s the risk the forward premium bias the carry trade premium and risk reversals in general equilibrium abstract this paper builds a two country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium macro model to understand three empirical facts about international currency returns they are the downward forward premium bias the carry trade return and the long run risk reversal cross country heterogeneity in unit root productivity levels generates the systematic risk priced into currency returns the risk can be magnified through monetary policy both a complete markets and an incomplete markets model are qualitatively consistent with these facts quantitatively the incomplete markets model performs better

taylor rules and exchange rate predictability in emerging economies abstract this study demonstrates the relationship between exchange rate determination and an endogenous monetary policy represented by taylor rules we fill a gap in the literature by focusing on a group of fifteen emerging economies that adopted free floating exchange rates and inflation targeting beginning in the mid 1990s because of the limited span of the time series which is a common obstacle to studying emerging economies we employ panel data regressions to produce more efficient estimates following the recent literature we use a robust set of out of sample statistics incorporating bootstrapped and asymptotic distributions for the diebold mariano statistic the clark and west statistic and theil s u ratio by evaluating different specifications for the taylor rule exchange rate model based on their out of sample performances we find that a present value forward looking specification shows strong evidence of exchange rate predictability

international investment location decisions abstract in international location tournaments governments compete for foreign investment with tax and other short run incentives such tournaments can be won if agglomeration economies are sufficiently powerful to overcome investors desire to spread investments as a hedge against risk we focus on manufacturing investments by u s multinationals in the 1980s our econometric results suggest that agglomeration economies are indeed the dominant influence on investor calculations paradoxically short run incentives have limited apparent impact on location choice we conclude that high cost tournament play is unnecessary for countries with good infrastructure development specialized input suppliers and an expanding domestic market

order flows and the exchange rate disconnect puzzle abstract the aim of this paper is to establish the link between the high frequency dynamics of spot exchange rates and developments in the macroeconomy to do so i first present a theoretical model of exchange rate determination that bridges the gap between existing microstructure and traditional models the model examines how dispersed microeconomic information known to individual agents outside the foreign exchange market is aggregated and transmitted to dealers via transaction flows i e order flow and how the information is then embedded in the spot exchange rate i then report empirical evidence that strongly supports the presence of the link between the macroeconomy order flow and high frequency exchange rate returns implied by the model in fact my empirical results indicate that between 20 and 30 of the variance in excess currency returns over one and two month horizons can be linked back to developments in the macroeconomy this level of explanatory power is an order of magnitude higher than that found in traditional models even the newly developed monetary models incorporating central banks reaction functions moreover it provides a straightforward solution to the exchange rate disconnect puzzle namely the high frequency behavior of spot exchange rates reflects the flow of new information reaching dealers concerning the slowly evolving state of the macroeconomy rather than the effects of shocks that drive rapidly changing macroeconomic conditions

the estimation of prewar gross national product methodology and new evidence the paper develops new methodology for the estimation of prewar gnp taps previously unused data sources and develops new estimates for the periods 1869 1908 and 1869 1928 primary among the new data sources are direct measures of output in the transportation communications and construction sectors and estimates of the consumer price index new measures of real gnp nominal gnp and the gnp deflator are developed the new estimates of real gnp are as volatile on average over the business cycle as the traditional kuznets kendrick series but dampen the amplitude of some cycles while raising the amplitude of others the new estimates of the gnp deflator are distinctly less volatile than the traditional series and in fact no more volatile than those in the postwar period

fundamental factors and extrapolation in stock market expectations the central role of structural change abstract rational expectations and behavioral finance models are widely interpreted as representing two distinct conceptions of decision making rational and irrational respectively using survey data this paper presents econometric evidence that both fundamental factors and extrapolation drive participants expectations of stock returns but that they do so in ways that vary over time although both the reh and behavioral finance approaches offer relevant insights for understanding participants expectations neither of these distinct model classes is consistent with time series data the paper s findings also suggest that structural change gives rise to ambiguity about the correct quantitative model driving outcomes this ambiguity faced by economists and market participants alike is the key to according both fundamental and behavioral factors a role in rational forecasting

out of sample exchange rate predictability with taylor rule fundamentals abstract an extensive literature that studied the performance of empirical exchange rate models following meese and rogoff s meese r a rogoff k 1983a empirical exchange rate models of the seventies do they fit out of sample journal of international economics 14 3 24 seminal paper has not convincingly found evidence of out of sample exchange rate predictability this paper extends the conventional set of models of exchange rate determination by investigating predictability of models that incorporate taylor rule fundamentals we find evidence of short term predictability for 11 out of 12 currencies vis a vis the u s dollar over the post bretton woods float with the strongest evidence coming from specifications that incorporate heterogeneous coefficients and interest rate smoothing the evidence of predictability is much stronger with taylor rule models than with conventional interest rate purchasing power parity or monetary models

the term structure of forward exchange premiums and the forecastability of spot exchange rates correcting the errors we develop a framework to extract information regarding subsequent spot rate movements from the term structure of forward exchange premiums while admitting possible deviations from rationality and