obtaining welfare bounds in discrete response valuation studies comment in a recent article published in land economics boman bostedt and kristrim 1999 hereafter bbk show how nonparametric lower bound intermediate and upper bound measures of average welfare change can be extracted from discrete response contingent valuation survey data building on the work of kristrim 1990 and haab and mcconnell 1997 the article appears to offer a promising route to getting estimates of mean willingness to pay wtp along with their respective variances without having to estimate parametric choice models thereby providing a computationally simple way to capture both the methodological uncertainty about the choice of a central tendency measure and the statistical uncertainty associated with any particular measure having an accurate estimate of the variance of mean wtp allows one to make confidence interval statements about mean wtp when measures of mean wtp and its variance are extracted

the link between response time and preference variance and processing heterogeneity in stated choice experiments abstract in this article we utilize the time respondents require to answer a self administered online stated preference survey while the effects of response time have been previously explored this article proposes a different approach that explicitly recognizes the highly equivocal relationship between response time and respondents choices in particular we attempt to disentangle preference variance and processing heterogeneity and explore whether response time helps to explain these three types of heterogeneity for this we divide the data ordered by response time into approximately equal sized subsets and then derive different class membership probabilities for each subset we estimate a large number of candidate models and subsequently conduct a frequentist based model averaging approach using information criteria to derive weights of evidence for each model our findings show a clear link between response time and utility coefficients error variance and processing strategies our results thus emphasize the importance of considering response time when modeling stated choice data

improving the process of valuing non market benefits combining citizens juries with choice modelling we attempt a first combination of the participatory technique known as the citizens jury with choice modelling a stated preference technique increasingly favored by environmental economists our application is conducted in the context of water quality improvements under the water framework directive the most significant reform in water legislation in the european union for many years we compare results with those of a conventional choice experiment we find that the choice experiment format can be successfully implemented in a jury setting and that moving from an individual to a collective choice setting produces a change in both values and preferences

incomplete contracts and privatization the paper offers a selective survey on the incomplete contracts approach to privatization furthermore a simple model of privatization to an owner manager is developed in which different allocations of ownership rights lead to different allocations of inside information about the firm which in turn affect allocative and productive efficiency in this model privatization is a commitment device of the government to credibly reward the manager for a successful cost reduction and to harden his budget constraint

one for all and all for one privatization and universal service provision in the postal sector universal service provision has a special role for the public utilities sector in many organization for economic co operation and development oecd countries these public utilities have largely been subject to privatization during the last 3 decades efficiency effects of privatization are widely documented while the impacts on the quality and accessibility of the universal service are not much examined by using a unique dataset on privatization for 21 countries over the period 1980 2007 for the postal sector we are able to show that privatization in particular formal privatization has led to a decrease in the quality of the universal service

bank capital shocks and countercyclical requirements implications for banking stability and welfare abstract this paper incorporates anticipated and unanticipated shocks to bank capital into a dsge model with a banking sector we apply this model to study basel iii countercyclical capital requirements and their implications for banking stability and household welfare we introduce three different countercyclical capital rules the first countercyclical capital rule responds to credit to output ratio the second countercyclical rule reacts to deviations of credit to its steady state and the third rule reacts to credit growth the second rule proves to be the most effective tool in dampening credit supply housing demand and household debt as well as in enhancing the banking stability by ensuring that banks have higher bank capital and capital to asset ratio after conducting a welfare analysis we find that the second rule outranks the other ones followed by the first rule the baseline and the third rule respectively in terms of welfare accumulation

giving stated preference respondents time to think results from four countries previous studies have found that contingent valuation cv respondents who are given overnight to reflect on a cv scenario have 30 40 lower average willingness to pay wtp than respondents who are interviewed in a single session this time to think ttt effect could explain much of the gap between real and hypothetical wtp observed in experimental studies yet giving time to think is still rare in binary or multinomial discrete choice studies we review the literature on increasing survey respondents opportunities to reflect on their answers and synthesize results from parallel ttt studies on private vaccine demand in four countries across all four countries we find robust and consistent evidence from both raw data and multivariate models for a ttt effect giving respondents overnight to think reduced the probability that a respondent said he or she would buy the hypothetical vaccines average wtp fell approximately 40 respondents with time to think were also more certain of their answers and a majority said they used the opportunity to consult with their spouse or family we conclude with a discussion of why researchers might be hesitant to adopt the ttt methodology

comparative reliability of the dichotomous choice and open ended contingent valuation techniques abstract the comparative reliability of dichotomous choice and open ended contingent valuation methods cvm is evaluated by resurvey of the same households 9 months after their original survey test retest correlations on willingness to pay are statistically significant at the 1 level and range from 0 57 for the dichotomous choice cvm to 0 62 for the open ended cvm the test retest correlations were not statistically different between dichotomous choice and open ended cvm a likelihood ratio test for temporal stability of each method s willingness to pay functions indicates stability half of the time for both methods

contingent valuation and actual behavior predicting connections to new water systems in the state of kerala india in 1988 families in kerala state in india were surveyed to ascertain their willingness to pay for household connections to a piped water supply system in 1991 the families in these communities were surveyed again and their actual decisions recorded this article explores the validity of the findings of the 1988 study on the basis of actual behavior it looks at the question of benefit revelation did people behave as they said they would and it looks at the question of benefit transfer did people in one site behave as they were predicted to behave on the basis of the predictions of a behavioral model for a different site the data were also used to analyze the policy relevance of behavioral modeling coauthors are john briscoe bhanwar singh radhika ramasubban and ramesh bhatia copyright 1995 by oxford university press

measuring subjective expectations in developing countries a critical review and new evidence the majority of economic decisions taken by individuals are forward looking and thus involve their expectations of future outcomes understanding the expectations that individuals have is thus of crucial importance to designing and evaluating policies in health education finance migration social protection and many other areas however the majority of developing country surveys are static in nature and do not contain information on the subjective expectations of individuals possible reasons given for not collecting this information include fears that poor illiterate individuals do not understand probability concepts that it takes far too much time to ask such questions or that the answers add little value this paper provides a critical review and new analysis of subjective expectations data from developing countries and refutes each of these concerns the authors find that people in developing countries can generally understand and answer probabilistic questions such questions are not prohibitive in time to ask and the expectations are useful predictors of future behavior and economic decisions the paper discusses the different methods being tried for eliciting such information the key methodological issues involved and the open research questions the available evidence suggests that collecting expectations data is both feasible and valuable suggesting that it should be incorporated into more developing country surveys

renegotiation design with unverifiable information this paper considers a buyer seller relationship with observable but unverifiable investments and or random utility parameters in such situations it is known that contract renegotiation may prevent the implementation of first best outcomes in this paper we show however that efficient investments and optimal risk sharing can typically be achieved provided the initial contract is able to monitor the ex post renegotiation process specifically we focus on the following two features of renegotiation design first default options in case renegotiation breaks down second the allocation of all bargaining power to either contracting party moreover we show that these two features can be obtained in standard rubinstein bargaining games through contractual provisions such as specific performance clauses and penalties for delay or equivalently financial hostages refundable without interest

interval bidding in a distribution elicitation format interval bidding allows people to report a range of values for a non market good herein we allow people to choose their distribution over this range endogenously we consider a multiplicative error model explaining the willingness to pay wtp which is estimated using a feasible generalized least squares estimator we apply our framework to a representative sample of the french population who were asked about the valuation of a bear conservation programme we find that most participants prefer stating their wtp as a range rather than a point but the shape of the distribution greatly varies across people our results support the use of the interval bidding with endogenous distribution approach in valuation studies

the firm as a nexus of treaties part 1 knowledge its acquisition sharing and or asymmetry the participatory generation of information rents and the theory of the firm masahiko aoki common knowledge and the co ordination of economic activities jacques cremer profit sharing information and employment matti pohjola part 2 vertical integration and the strategic management of the enterprise what is vertical integration michael h riordan vertical integration transaction costs and learning by using kurt lundgren the firm as a nexus of internal and external contracts torger reve part 3 issues of labour organization the viability of worker ownership an economic perspective on the political structure of the firm henry hansmann intellectual skill and the role of employees as constituent members of large firms in contemporary japan kazuo koike the implicit contract for corporate law firm associates ex post opportunism and ex ante bonding robert h mooking part 4 finance and the political structure of the firm capital structure as a mechanism of control a comparison of financial systems erik berglof long term contracts in financial markets hakan lindgren the principle of external accountability in competitive markets herbert gintis union militancy and plant designs kar ove moene can transaction cost economics explain trade associations marc schneiberg and j rogers hollingsworth

reliability and predictive validity of contingent values does the nature of the good matter abstract because the contingent valuation mechanism cvm elicits verbal reports of maximum willingness to pay and not actual willingness to pay analysts have expressed doubts about the reliability and validity of contingent values for commodities such as environmental amenities this skepticism is usually attributed to the amorphous nature of the commodity and to peoples lack of familiarity or experience however our comparison of two commodities which lie at polar extremes of the private good public good continuum suggests that the nature of the good may have little influence on the reliability and predictive validity of the cvm instead aspects of the cvm itself e g explicit payment obligation may be more important for high intention behavior consistency

estimating the private benefits of vaccination against cholera in beira mozambique a travel cost approach abstract this paper reports the results of the first study that estimates households private demand for cholera vaccines using the travel cost method we take advantage of an unusual natural experiment in january 2004 more than 41 000 residents from various locations in beira mozambique received two doses of oral cholera vaccine free of charge during the first vaccination trial to test its effectiveness in an endemic cholera zone of africa about 30 000 people participated from outside the target zone resulting in long queues and an average waiting time of about 85 min per dose we estimated travel cost models of the revealed demand for cholera vaccines among households informed of the trial using information collected in in person interviews conducted during the summer of 2005 to explore households participation in the trial we used standard and zero inflated household count models for all household members and dichotomous choice models for the head of the household our analysis shows that the quantity of vaccines obtained by households and the likelihood of participation decreased as travel cost in time and transport expenses rose our best estimates of per capita willingness to pay for the two required doses of cholera vaccine are about 0 85 usd these estimates are sensitive to the assumed value of time spent acquiring vaccines

the financial and operating performance of newly privatized firms an international empirical analysis this study compares the pre and postprivatization financial and operating performance of 61 companies from 18 countries and 32 industries that experience full or partial privatization through public share offerings during the period 1961 to 1990 our results document strong performance improvements achieved surprisingly without sacrificing employment security specifically after being privatized firms increase real sales become more profitable increase their capital investment spending improve their operating efficiency and increase their work forces furthermore these companies significantly lower their debt levels and increase dividend payout finally we document significant changes in the size and composition of corporate boards of directors after privatization the last fifteen years have witnessed a significant global shift away from state socialism towards entrepreneurial capitalism one of the most important and visible aspects of this trend has been the enthusiasm with which governments of all political persuasions have sold their state owned enterprises soes to private investors in hopes that the generally unsatisfactory economic performance of these firms can be improved by the discipline of private ownership this denationalization process given its current title of privatization by the conservative government of margaret thatcher in

information customization and food choice in this article we employ a hypothetical discrete choice experiment dce to examine how much consumers are willing to pay to use technology to customize their food shopping we conjecture that customized information provision can aid in the composition of a healthier shop our results reveal that consumers are prepared to pay relatively more for individual specific information as opposed to generic nutritional information that is typically provided on food labels in arriving at these results we have examined various model specifications including those that make use of ex post de briefing questions on attribute non attendance and attribute ranking information and those that consider the time taken to complete the survey our main results are robust to the various model specifications we examine

valuing the non market benefits of wild goose conservation a comparison of interview and group based approaches wild geese graze on improved pastures and young cereal crops and hence can cause considerable damage to agriculture particularly in areas close to roosting sites this study uses contingent valuation cv to establish whether government compensation payments currently made to farmers represent value for money by estimating the value placed on goose conservation by the general public benefit estimates from a conventional interview approach are compared with a group based approach called the market stall ms this involves two 1 h meetings held 1 week apart and differs from conventional interviews in that participants are given more time to consider their preferences and to discuss their wtp question with other household members we argue that this type of group based approach to environmental valuation offers important advantages over individual interview approaches especially for unfamiliar and or complex environmental goods

a convergent validity test within the payment card format using simulation techniques a convergent validity test is performed between two groups of versions of the payment card format the first group the classic payment card cpc asks respondents to report their willingness to p

giving respondents time to think in contingent valuation studies a developing country application abstract this paper evaluates whether the time given people to think about their responses to cvm valuation questions influences their answers our study was conducted in nigeria as part of an evaluation of rural households willingness to pay for public taps and private connections to improved drinking water systems respondents who were allowed time to evaluate the proposed water system bid significantly less than those who did not have that time moreover this conclusion was upheld regardless of whether the water system was a public tap or a private connection

fat tails and truncated bids in contingent valuation an application to an endangered shorebird species a yes response function in a contingent valuation study is said to have fat tails if it has a high and slowly declining yes response rate at high bid levels truncated bids refer to the practice of dropping high bid offers before a yes response rate of near zero is reached this is a common practice in contingent valuation we explore the extent and implications of fat tails and truncated bids in a study of an endangered shorebird species we find among other things that mean willingness to pay is quite sensitive to the highest bid offered so much so that the choice of highest bid nearly dictates outcomes

testing for temporal reliability in contingent valuation with time for changes in factors affecting demand we develop a temporal reliability test of the contingent valuation method separate random samples were administered the same telephone survey five years apart in the retest respondents have less favorable attitudes toward the environment given this result a temporally reliable contingent valuation would find lower willingness to pay we find that the estimates are temporally reliable after accounting for attitudes which have changed over the five year period values are not significantly different five years apart this study provides additional evidence that use of the contingent valuation method can provide useful information for environmental policy analysis

rethinking cholera and typhoid vaccination policies for the poor private demand in kolkata india summary the old familiar diseases of cholera and typhoid remain a serious health threat in many developing countries health policy analysts often argue that vaccination against cholera and typhoid should be provided free because poor people cannot afford to pay for such vaccines and because vaccination confers positive economic externalities on unvaccinated individuals in 2004 we conducted a contingent valuation cv survey of 835 randomly selected adults from two neighborhoods in kolkata india to provide information on private demand for cholera and typhoid vaccines for themselves and for household members to support more nuanced financial and economics analyses of such vaccination programs the median private economic benefits of providing a typhoid vaccine to a household with five members is about us 23 in a middle income neighborhood us 27 for a cholera vaccine and us 14 in a low income slum us 15 for a cholera vaccine our research raises an intriguing possibility if user charges were set at a level to recover the costs of a vaccination program there could be sufficient demand for the vaccine so that coverage of the vaccinated population might ensure that all the remaining unvaccinated individuals would be protected as well through indirect herd protection

reliability of stated preferences for cholera and typhoid vaccines with time to think in hue vietnam weexaminetheeffectofgivingrespondentstimetothinkabouttheirstatedchoices sc in a survey of cholera and typhoid vaccine preferences in hue vietnam because neither vaccine is widely available in vietnam we used the sc approach a stated preference technique and gave half of our respondents overnight to think about their choices to make the hypothetical valuation scenario as similar to a real life choice situation as possible respondents who were given extra time made fewer choices that violated internal validity tests of utility theory and had lower average willingness to pay wtp confirming a result found in similar studies in the contingent valuation literature jel d12 i18 c25

respondent uncertainty and ordering effect on willingness to pay for salt marsh conservation in the brest roadstead france abstract this paper explores the potential link between the sensitivity of willingness to pay wtp to the order of presenting bid amounts in contingent valuation questions ordering effect and respondent uncertainty the resource being valued is a public project to protect salt marshes against the spread of an invasive aquatic plant in the brest roadstead france valuation uncertainty is captured through a variant of payment card format where respondents are given the opportunity to report their wtp as either a single value option a or an interval of values option b the ordering effect is tested using both parametric models that ignore and control for the potential sample selection bias related to the choice between option a and option b as well as non parametric models the results suggest that 1 respondents place substantial wtp values on salt marsh conservation and 2 the ordering effect is linked to respondent uncertainty since only uncertain respondents react differently to changes in the order of presenting bid amounts specifically for uncertain respondents putting bid amounts in ascending order yields lower welfare estimates than putting bid amounts in descending order or random order policy recommendations and options to deal with ordering effect are discussed

test retest reliability of contingent valuation with independent sample pretest and posttest control groups test retest the standard method used to investigate reliability of contingent valuation is limited because when the time period between the two surveys is relatively short the study may exhibit testing recall conversely when the time between the two surveys increases there is an increased chance the true value will change the test retest design cannot isolate these effects independent pretest and posttest control groups allow testing of reliability even when recall occurs or the true value changes using this design we found ex post estimates of hicksian surplus are reliable regardless of whether respondents have direct experience with an activity

test retest reliability of the contingent valuation method a comparison of general population and visitor responses the reliability of the contingent valuation method is evaluated by resurveying the same general households and visitors nine months after their original survey test retest correlations on willingness to pay are statistically significant and ranged from 422 for the general population sample to 782 for the visitor sample using a paired t test there was no statistical difference between an individual s first and second reported willingness to pay chow tests comparing the original and resurvey willingness to pay functions showed no statistical difference at the 01 level reported willingness to pay is reasonably stable over the time period surveyed

regulating a monopolist with unknown costs we consider the problem of how to regulate a monopolistic firm whose costs are unknown to the regulator the regulator s objective is to maximize a linear social welfare function of the consumers surplus and the firm s profit in the optimal regulatory policy prices and subsidies are designed as functions of the firm s cost report so that expected social welfare is maximized subject to the constraints that the firm has nonnegative profit and has no incentive to misrepresent its costs we explicitly derive the optimal policy and analyze its properties in their classic papers dupuit 2 and hotelling 5 considered pricing policies for a bridge that had a fixed cost of construction and zero marginal cost they demonstrated that the pricing policy that maximizes consumer well being is to set price equal to marginal cost and to provide a subsidy to the supplier equal to the fixed cost so that a firm would be willing to provide the bridge this first best solution is based on a number of informational assumptions first the demand function is assumed to be known to both the regulator and to the firm while the assumption of complete information may be too strong the assumption that information about demand is as available to the regulator as it is to the firm does not seem unnatural a second informational assumption is that the regulator has complete information about the cost of the firm or at least has the same information about cost as does the firm this assumption is unlikely to be met in reality since the firm would be expected to have better information about costs than would the regulator as weitzman has stated an essential feature of the regulatory environment i am trying to describe is uncertainty about the exact specification of each firm s cost function in most cases even the managers and engineers most closely associated with production will be unable to precisely specify beforehand the cheapest way to generate various hypothetical output levels because they are yet removed from the production process the regulators are likely to be vaguer still about a firm s cost function 12 p 684 as this observation suggests it is natural to expect that a firm would have better information regarding its costs than would a regulator the purpose of this paper is to develop an optimal regulatory policy for the case in which the regulator does not know the costs of the firm one strategy that a regulator could use in the absence of full information about costs is to give the firm the title to the total social surplus and to delegate the pricing decision to the firm in pursuing its own interests which would then be to maximize the total social surplus the firm would adopt the same marginal cost pricing strategy that the regulator would have imposed if the regulator had

are fast responses more random testing the effect of response time on scale in an online choice experiment scepticism over stated preference surveys conducted online revolves around the concerns over professional respondents who might rush through the questionnaire without sufficiently considering the information provided to gain insight on the validity of this phenomenon and test the effect of response time on choice randomness this study makes use of a recently conducted choice experiment survey on ecological and amenity effects of an offshore windfarm in the uk the positive relationship between self rated and inferred attribute attendance and response time is taken as evidence for a link between response time and cognitive effort subsequently the generalised multinomial logit model is employed to test the effect of response time on scale which indicates the weight of the deterministic relative to the error component in the random utility model results show that longer response time increases scale i e decreases choice randomness this positive scale effect of response time is further found to be non linear and wear off at some point beyond which extreme response time decreases scale while response time does not systematically affect welfare estimates higher response time increases the precision of such estimates these effects persist when self reported choice certainty is controlled for implications of the results for online stated preference surveys and further research are discussed