advertising and prices as signals of quality in a regime of price rivalry abstract this paper addresses the issue of whether firms use price or advertising to signal quality and whether advertising has pro or anti competitive effects we show that when there is price rivalry advertising may be necessary to signal quality in contrast to single firm models signaling through price alone prevails for sufficient inter brand quality differentials joint price advertising signals prevail when the quality differential is small finally advertising in the form of variable rather than fixed costs is shown to increase the feasibility of signaling quality

buyer initiated vs seller initiated information revelation sales presentations are the core of the selling process where salespeople provide information to prospects one challenge is that the amount of information available to be potentially communicated may exceed salespeople s ability to communicate or customers ability to process there is limited bandwidth between the firm and customers one important decision then is which information should customers see what the firm chooses to tell customers may be informative in itself when constrained to a seller initiated information revelation format where the firm chooses which feature to show the firm never finds it optimal to offer more features than it is able to inform customers about consequently customers never find credible a claim that the product has all features the important implication is that price alone cannot serve as a signal of quality in this setting in contrast a buyer initiated information revelation format where customers decide which information to receive increases the probability of a sale and also results in the production of higher quality products in a competitive setting by adopting buyer initiated information revelation firms are able to attain positive profits this is due to the fact that customers infer the product s quality from the price along with the information revelation format customers know that at some prices firms find it profitable to produce high quality products and at other lower prices this is not the case thus customer empowerment leads to higher profits

the informational role of prices we consider a dominant firm with a competitive fringe in order to address the informational role of prices the fringe is necessary for the existence of a unique fully revealing equilibrium in which the price reveals the quality of the good to uninformed buyers a higher price triggers more sales on the part of the competitive fringe reducing both residual demand and profits we find that a larger share of uninformed buyers increases the price reduces the quantity sold by the dominant firm but increases the quantity sold by the competitive fringe this in turn reduces consumer surplus and welfare this article is protected by copyright all rights reserved

migration friendship ties and cultural assimilation we study migrants assimilation by analyzing whether friendship with natives is a measure of cultural assimilation and by investigating the formation of social ties using the german socio economic panel we find that migrants with a german friend are more similar to natives than those without along several important dimensions including concerns about the economy interest in politics and a host of policy issues turning to friendship acquisition we find that becoming employed time spent in the host country the birth of a child residential mobility and additional education acquired in the host country are significant drivers of social network variation

licensing effect in consumer choice abstract most choices in the real world follow other choices or judgments the authors show that a prior choice which activates and boosts a positive self concept subsequently licenses the choice of a more self indulgent option the authors propose that licensing can operate by committing to a virtuous act in a preceding choice which reduces negative self attributions associated with the purchase of relative luxuries five studies demonstrate the proposed licensing effect of a prior commitment to a virtuous act on subsequent choice consistent with the authors theory the preference for an indulgent option diminishes if the licensing task is attributed to an external motivation the authors also report a mediation analysis in support of their theoretical explanation that the licensing effect operates by providing a temporary boost in the relevant self concept

search efficiency skill transferability and immigrant relative unemployment rates in australia 1990 search efficiency skill transferability and immigrant relative unemployment rates in australia applied economics vol 22 no 2 pp 249 260

on the frequency of large stock returns putting booms and busts into perspective textabstractnumerous articles have investigated the distribution of share prices and find that the returns are fat tailed nevertheless there is still controversy about the amount of probability mass in the tails and hence about the most appropriate distribution to use in modeling returns this controversy has proven hard to resolve as the alternatives are non nested we employ extreme value theory focusing exclusively on the larger observations in order to assess the tail shape within a unified framework we find that at least the first two moments exist this enables one to generate robust probabilities on large returns which put the recent stock market swings into historical perspective

what will consumers pay for social product features the importance of ethical consumerism to many companies worldwide has increased dramatically in recent years ethical consumerism encompasses the importance of non traditional and social components of a company s products and business process to strategic success such as environmental protectionism child labor practices and so on the present paper utilizes a random utility theoretic experimental design to provide estimates of the relative value selected consumers place on the social features of products

vicarious goal fulfillment when the mere presence of a healthy option leads to an ironically indulgent decision this research examines how consumers food choices differ when healthy items are included in a choice set compared with when they are not available results demonstrate that individuals are ironically more likely to make indulgent food choices when a healthy item is available compared to when it is not available the influence of the healthy item on indulgent choice is stronger for those with higher levels of self control support is found for a goal activation based explanation for these findings whereby the mere presence of the healthy food option vicariously fulfills nutrition related goals and provides consumers with a license to indulge

sulfur dioxide control by electric utilities what are the gains from trade title iv of the 1990 clean air act amendments caaa established a market for transferable sulfur dioxide so2 emission allowances among electric utilities this market offers firms facing high marginal abatement costs the opportunity to purchase the right to emit so2 from firms with lower costs and this is expected to yield cost savings compared to a command and control approach to environmental regulation this paper uses econometrically estimated marginal abatement cost functions for power plants affected by title iv of the caaa to evaluate the performance of the so2 allowance market specifically we investigate whether the much heralded fall in the cost of abating so2 compared to original estimates can be attributed to allowance trading we demonstrate that for plants that use low sulfur coal to reduce so2 emissions technical change and the fall in prices of low sulfur coal have lowered marginal abatement cost curves by over 50 percent since 1985 the flexibility to take advantage of these chan

hedging the black swan conditional heteroskedasticity and tail dependence in s p500 and vix the recent financial crisis has accentuated the fact that extreme outcomes have been overlooked and not dealt with adequately while extreme value theories have existed for a long time the multivariate variant is difficult to handle in the financial markets due to the prevalent heteroskedasticity embedded in most financial time series and the complex extremal dependence that cannot be conveniently captured by a single structure moreover most of the existing approaches are based on a limiting argument in which all variables become large at the same rate in this paper we show how the conditional approach of heffernan and tawn 2004 can be implemented to model extremal dependence between financial time series we use a hedging example based on vix futures to demonstrate the flexibility and superiority of the conditional approach against the conventional ols regression approach

strategic pricing signalling and costly information acquisition abstract consider a market where an informed monopolist sets the price for a good or asset with a value unknown to potential buyers upon observing the price buyers may pay some cost for information about the value before deciding on purchases under a belief restriction which generalizes the idea of the cho kreps intuitive criterion we establish a version of the grossman stiglitz paradox there is no separating equilibrium with fully revealing prices yet we also resolve the paradox there is a unique equilibrium and as the cost of information becomes small the equilibrium approaches the full information outcome and prices become perfectly revealing

signaling quality with a money back guarantee the role of transaction costs direct marketing is witnessing explosive growth as consumers increasingly purchase products from their homes their ability to judge the quality of products they buy is significantly reduced in this paper we study how money back guarantees can signal product quality in such environments we interpret product quality broadly to mean both the level of attributes promised as well as the firm s consistency in delivering on those promises key aspects of our formulation are the explicit consideration of transaction costs and alternative signals of product quality transaction costs are the costs the seller or buyer faces when redeeming a money back guarantee we show that money back guarantees signal quality by exploiting the higher probability of returns for a lower quality product and the attendant higher transaction costs however if the seller s transaction costs are very large then there are less costly ways to signal namely charging a high price we compare the signaling performance of 1 price 2 price with uninformative advertising and 3 price with a money back guarantee whereas uninformative advertising does not work at all in our model under certain conditions a money back guarantee is necessary to signal and under other conditions a money back guarantee is a useful supplement to price

pricing and patents of hiv aids drugs in developing countries this article provides empirical evidence on the impact of patents on drug prices across developing countries it uses sales data on human immunodeficiency virus hiv acquired immuno deficiency syndrome aids drugs in a sample of 34 low and middle income countries between 1995 and mid 2000 the main findings are that patents do shift drug prices up drug prices are correlated to per capita income levels and drug firms follow a skimming strategy when pricing new hiv aids drugs that is there is across country and intertemporal price discrimination in the global drug markets

the impact of language ability on employment and earnings of britain s ethnic communities the fourth national survey of ethnic minorities contains useful information about the language ability of britain s non whites as well as a wealth of comparative information for whites the paper attempts to establish how much of the lower unemployment and higher earnings enjoyed by whites is the result of a comparative advantage in language language is shown to contribute to a part of the non white disadvantage but after language effects are removed non whites males still have higher unemployment rates and lower earnings language disadvantage among non white females leads to higher inactivity rates rather than more unemployment

a simple model of pharmaceutical price dynamics abstract branded pharmaceutical firms use price and promotional strategy to manage public knowledge about their drugs we propose a dynamic theory of pharmaceutical pricing and conduct an exploratory empirical analysis inspired by the theory our theory predicts a pattern of increasing prices and decreasing promotional activities over a drug s life cycle prices are kept low and advertising levels high early in the life cycle in order to build public knowledge about the drug as knowledge grows prices rise and advertising falls if the management of this stock is important enough this tendency of prices to rise can overwhelm the price decreasing effect of entry by generic competitors late in the drug life cycle we argue that our theory of price dynamics explains empirical regularities in this industry

information acquisition and financial contagion abstract this paper incorporates costly voluntary acquisition of information a la nikitin and smith 2007 nikitin m smith r t 2007 information acquisition coordination and fundamentals in a financial crisis journal of banking and finance in press doi 10 1016 j jbankfin 2007 04 031 in a framework similar to allen and gale 2000 allen f gale d 2000 financial contagion journal of political economy 108 1 33 without relying on any unexpected shock to model contagion in this framework contagion and financial crises are the result of information gathering by depositors weak fundamentals and an incomplete market structure of banks it also shows how financial systems entering a recession can affect others with apparently stronger economic conditions contagion finally this is the first paper to investigate the effectiveness of the contingent credit line procedures introduced by the imf at the end of the nineties as a mechanism to prevent the propagation of crises

fear unemployment and migration we examine the impact on the uk economy of the flow of workers from ten east european countries after their accession to the european union we find evidence that those most susceptible to competition from these workers have seen weaker wage inflation we document that the presence of these foreign workers has increased the fear of unemployment and helped to contain wage pressure we argue that this inflow of workers has increased supply by more than it has raised demand and thus had the effect of reducing both inflationary pressures and the natural rate of unemployment the recent rise in migration to the uk from eight eu accession countries the czech republic estonia hungary latvia lithuania poland slovakia and slovenia the a8 countries which started in 2004 as well as subsequently from romania and bulgaria the a2 in 2007 has generated a good deal of controversy we will refer to these countries collectively as the a10 henceforth 1 how many of these eastern europeans are there currently in the uk which countries did they come from and when what impact has their influx had on the uk economy and what likely impacts will they have in the future

a new approach to measuring financial contagion this article proposes a new approach to evaluate contagion in financial markets our measure of contagion captures the coincidence of extreme return shocks across countries within a region and across regions we characterize the extent of contagion its economic significance and its determinants using a multinomial logistic regression model applying our approach to daily returns of emerging markets during the 1990s we find that contagion is predictable and depends on regional interest rates exchange rate changes and conditional stock return volatility evidence that contagion is stronger for extreme negative returns than for extreme positive returns is mixed

high and declining prices signal product quality high and declining prices signal a high quality product high prices are the efficient means of signaling because the consequent loss of sales volume is most damaging for lower cost lower quality products as time passes and the number of informed consumers increases the signaling distortion lessens resulting in a declining price profile the prediction of high and declining prices is robust across a variety of dynamic models and is consistent with recent empirical findings copyright 1991 by american economic association

the simple economics of bank fragility banks are linked through the interbank deposit mar ket participations like syndicated loans and deposit interest rate risk the similarity in exposures carries the potential for systemic breakdowns this potential is either weak or strong depending on whether the linkages remain or vanish asymptotically it is shown that the linearity of the bank portfolios in the exposures in combi nation with a condition on the tails of the marginal distributions of these exposures determines whether the potential for systemic risk is weak or strong we show that if the exposures have marginal normal distributions the potential for systemic risk is weak while if e g the student distributions apply the potential is strong

contagion risk in the australian banking and property sectors abstract the australian banking system emerged from the global crisis virtually unhurt with most banks still profitable adequately capitalized and with aa credit ratings are there any risks or vulnerabilities in this success story this paper analyzes australia s systemic banking risk and attempts to determine if this risk increased with the recent global crisis and whether this risk is related to the downturn experienced in the real estate market we use extreme value theory to measure banks and property firms univariate value at risk as well as multivariate intra sector and inter sector contagion risks of the 13 sectors analyzed we find that the property sector exhibits the highest level of extremal dependence with the banking sector the credit crisis significantly increased the probability of a bank or property firm crashing moreover contagion risks significantly increased not only within the banking and property sectors but also between those sectors

causes and consequences of price premiums existing literature that argues for the prevalence of price premiums is examined an evaluation of an extant model identifies several possible boundary conditions that limit the applicability of the model a set of propositions is developed based on these boundary conditions linking buyer seller and market factors to the magnitude of price premiums that should be available alternative means for empirical testing of the propositions are offered and some implications and applications of this line of thinking for pricing and brand management are described copyright 1996 by university of chicago press

the impact of immigration on the british labour market using data from the british labour force survey this article provides an empirical investigation of the way immigration affects labour market outcomes of native born workers in britain set beside a theoretical discussion of the underlying economic mechanisms we discuss problems arising in empirical estimation and how to address them we show that the overall skill distribution of immigrants is remarkably similar to that of the native born workforce we find no strong evidence that immigration has overall effects on aggregate employment participation unemployment and wages but some differences according to education

estimating bilateral exposures in the german interbank market is there a danger of contagion abstract credit risk associated with interbank lending may lead to domino effects where the failure of one bank results in the failure of other banks not directly affected by the initial shock recent work in economic theory shows that this risk of contagion depends on the precise pattern of interbank linkages we use balance sheet information to estimate a matrix of bilateral credit relationships for the german banking system and test whether the breakdown of a single bank can lead to contagion we find that in the absence of a safety net there is considerable scope for contagion that could affect a large proportion of the banking system the financial safety net in this case institutional guarantees for saving banks and cooperative banks considerably reduces but does not eliminate the danger of contagion even so the failure of a single bank could lead to the breakdown of up to 15 of the banking system in terms of assets

tail risk and systemic risk of us and eurozone financial institutions in the wake of the global financial crisis we evaluate multiple market based measures for us and eurozone individual bank tail risk and bank systemic risk we apply statistical extreme value analysis to the tails of bank equity capital losses to estimate the likelihood of individual institutions financial distress as well as individual banks exposure to each other spillover risk and to global shocks extreme systematic risk the estimation procedure presupposes that bank equity returns are heavy tailed and tail dependent as identifying assumption using both us and eurozone banks allows one to make a cross atlantic comparison of tail risks and systemic stability we also assess to what extent magnitudes of tail risk and systemic risk have been altered by the global financial crisis the results suggest that both tail risk and systemic risk in the us are higher than in the eurozone regardless of the considered sample period

two part pricing for experience goods in the presence of adverse selection abstract because customers learn something when they purchase an experience good for the first time a firm selling experience goods may face different demand curves from new and repeat customers the firm can exploit these differences by using a two part pricing strategy to price discriminate between new and repeat customers the firm may also use a two part pricing strategy to mitigate the information problems of adverse selection when its quality is uncertain the analysis is particularly applicable to service markets where customers and firms seek long term relationships and firms maintain customer records which facilitate price discrimination

credible signals of the release of new versions i introduction many products are marketed some time after they have been developed for instance a new smartphone may be developed and tested well before it is available for purchase a new car might be prototyped and driven months before it comes to the market indeed a firm will often have several products concurrently in a development pipeline consumers may know a product is in that pipeline without knowing its progress towards the market because the outcome of such development and testing is not visible to outsiders the firm knows whether it can market a product before consumers do consumers are uninformed about when and if the new product will be marketed to them economists have long recognized that the present demand for durable goods depends on future prospects such as the future price or the introduction of an improved version 1 the existence of such an improved version is often the seller s private information if consumers anticipate a new version some will defer purchases until the new version is available and the seller will face low demand for the present version disclosing the new version is not in a monopoly seller s interest a seller whose good does not have a new version would also like to communicate that fact to consumers while a firm with a successful product innovation can credibly disclose the new version with relative ease a firm that has failed to develop a new product could have great difficulty convincing consumers that the product has no new version in such situations it is important to examine whether prices can inform consumers whether a new version will be marketed in the near future in a recent paper choi et al 2010 developed a model with a risky product development process in which reputation effects allow cheap talk announcements to signal successful product development to consumers an announcement induces consumers to delay or divert purchases to the announcer s coming product which increases the announcer s profit and can improve welfare 2 in their model the announcer and her non innovative rivals supply the original good competitively because of this an announcement does not reduce profit on the current version this paper will focus on markets where the seller has substantial market power before innovating so announcing a successful product development has a cost in terms of current revenue further because we attend to prices as signals this model may also apply to markets where a long run relationship between consumers and firms may not be sustainable another objective of this paper is to examine the welfare effects of mandatory disclosure a government policy mandating disclosure of any new version is an alternative means of informing consumers 3 as long as firms are not willing to lie to the government such a policy would credibly communicate whether a new version of a durable is coming mandatory disclosure would bring about full information as consumers are informed about any improved future version before observing the price of the current version in this paper we explore a two period model of a durable good monopoly in which consumers are initially uninformed about whether there will be a new version of the current good the monopoly seller is privately informed if he will be able to market an improved version in the second period in the first period consumers must decide whether to purchase the good now or wait for an upgraded version they may be able to infer from the price of the current version whether the seller will bring a new version to the market it is important to see first whether prices can serve as signals and second how welfare compares between any signaling outcome and a full information benchmark corresponding to mandatory disclosure we will show that there is a unique equilibrium supported by intuitive beliefs in this equilibrium the seller s private information about an improved version is completely revealed to consumers

consumer demand for fair trade evidence from a multistore field experiment abstract we provide new evidence on consumer demand for ethical products from experiments conducted in a u s grocery store chain we find that sales of the two most popular coffees rose by almost 10 when they carried a fair trade label as compared to a generic placebo label demand for the higher priced coffee remained steady when its price was raised by 8 but demand for the lower priced coffee was elastic a 9 price increase led to a 30 decline in sales while consumers attach value to ethical sourcing there is significant heterogeneity in willingness to pay for it

quality uncertainty and informative advertising we present a price signalling model with informative advertising a costly advertisement informs of the good s quality directly and therefore the seller determines the fraction of informed buyers endogenously we show that informative advertising only occurs in pooling equilibria for an advertising pooling equilibrium to exist consumer valuation for high quality advertising cost prior probability that quality is high and inaccuracy of the buyers pre purchase information must be sufficiently high for some parameters there is a unique undefeated advertising pooling equilibrium if advertising is used in equilibrium the adverse selection problem is mitigated

extreme co movements and extreme impacts in high frequency data in finance abstract extreme co movement and extreme impact problems are inherently stochastic control problems since they will influence the decision taken today and ultimately influence a decision taken in the future extreme co movements among financial assets have been reported in the literature however extreme impacts have not been carefully studied yet in this paper we use the newly developed methodology to further explore extreme co movements and extreme impacts in financial market particularly two fx spot rates are studied based on the results of our analysis with fx returns we conclude that there exist extreme co movements and extreme impacts in fx returns and care has to be taken when we employ portfolio optimization models especially models without the ability of handling extreme dependencies

bank fragility money under the mattress and long run growth us evidence from the perfect panic of 1893 abstract this paper examines how the us financial crisis of 1893 affected state output growth between 1900 and 1930 the results indicate that a 1 increase in bank instability reduced output growth by 2 5 a comparison of nebraska which had one of the highest bank failure rates with west virginia which did not experience a single bank failure reveals that disintermediation affected growth through a portfolio change among savers people simply stopped trusting banks time series evidence from newspapers indicates that articles containing the words money hidden significantly increase after banking crises then slowly die out

job search methods and their success a comparison of immigrants and natives in the uk a major issue in the immigration debate concerns whether immigrants take jobs away from natives in this article we present new evidence on the job search methods used by immigrants and their relative success in gaining employment in the uk we find that 1 immigrant job search is less successful than that of natives 2 immigrants are as likely to gain employment through informal methods as via verifiable routes 3 the probability of success increases with years since migration the finding that immigrants do not effectively compete for jobs may help explain why immigration has little impact on native employment

strategic pricing of new pharmaceuticals this paper provides empirical evidence on the leading factors affecting the prices of new pharmaceuticals both at introduction and after 4 6 and 8 years most important is the extent of therapeutic advance embodied in a new product for drugs which represent important therapeutic gains launch prices can be two or three times those of existing drugs used for the same purposes while drugs that largely duplicate the actions of currently available products are typically priced at comparable levels in addition the number of branded substitutes has a substantial negative effect on launch prices which reflects the importance of competitive pressures duplicate products thereby play an important economic role in pharmaceutical markets

fishing in different pools job search strategies and job finding success in canada in the early 1980s this article examines the job search methods of jobless workers and emphasizes sample selectivity in choice of job search strategies especially use of public employment agencies longitudinal data from the labour force survey of canada for 1981 1983 and 1986 indicate that job search methods change with the business cycle and that many people find jobs without any reported search the determinants of job search success also vary substantially over the business cycle implying a substantial social return to public employment agencies at the 1983 trough of the recession but no noticeable benefits when aggregate unemployment is relatively low

immigrants and the dynamics of high wage jobs the authors exploit immigrant identifiers in the canadian labour force survey lfs and the longitudinal dimension of these data to compare the labor force and job dynamics of immigrants and native born workers they examine the role of job as opposed to worker heterogeneity in driving immigrant wage disparities and investigate how the paths into and out of jobs of varying quality compare between immigrant and native born workers they find that the disparity in immigrant job quality which does not appear to diminish with years since arrival reflects a combination of relatively low transitions into high wage jobs and high transitions out of these jobs the former result appears to be due equally to difficulties obtaining high wage jobs directly out of unemployment and to using low wage jobs as stepping stones the authors find little or no evidence however that immigrant job seekers face barriers to low wage jobs

a better job thanks to personal networks an evaluation for migrants who arrived in france before age 18 it is more difficult for migrants than natives to find a job in their host country so many of them have to accept at least temporarily a job that is below their level of qualification this repr

price quality and reputation evidence from an online field experiment we examine the link between price quality seller claims and seller reputation in internet auctions after purchasing actual baseball cards and having them professionally graded we find that some buyers in the online graded market are misled by incredible claims of quality they pay higher prices but do not receive better quality and in fact are defrauded more often online seller reputation is effective for identifying good faith sellers but conditional on completed auctions reputable sellers do not provide better quality evidence also suggests that high claim sellers target less experienced buyers we attribute these patterns to two loopholes in the ebay rating system we benefited from the comments of austan goolsbee raphael thomadsen john shea dan vincent david reiley larry ausubel peter cramton v joseph hotz jeff smith jimmy chan vincent crawford mark duggan and attendees at numerous seminars and conferences we are particularly grateful to seth sanders and john list for their constructive advice at the early stage of the research to timothy bresnahan rachel kranton and thomas hubbard for their detailed suggestions in reshaping earlier versions and to editor ariel pakes and two anonymous referees for their careful readings special thanks to eight friends who acted as our agents in purchasing baseball cards in retail markets and to numerous sports card store owners who shared their insights on the sportscard industry excellent research assistance from randy alexander moore and krzysztof fizyta is gratefully acknowledged any remaining errors are ours

ethical products less strong how explicit and implicit reliance on the lay theory affects consumption behaviors many consumers implicitly associate sustainability with lower product strength this so called ethical less strong intuition elsi poses a major threat for the success of sustainable products this article explores this pervasive lay theory and examines whether it is a key barrier for sustainable consumption patterns even more importantly little is known about the underlying mechanisms that might operate differently at the implicit and explicit levels of the consumer s decision making to fill this gap three studies examine how the implicit judgments that consumers activate automatically shape their consumption behaviors in concert with their more controlled explicit beliefs about sustainable products the main study investigates the elsi s imprint on actual shopping patterns and disentangles the implicit and explicit mechanisms of the lay theory this paper also asks how this negative influence can be attenuated by examining whether the consumer s interest in sustainable consumption reduces reliance on the elsi two follow up studies confirm the robustness from different methodological and practical perspectives implications for companies and policy makers are derived

when cheaper is better fee determination in the market for equity mutual funds abstract in this paper we develop a model of the market for equity mutual funds that captures three key characteristics of this market first there is competition among funds second fund managers ability is not observed by investors before making their investment decisions third some investors do not make optimal use of all available information the main results of the paper are that 1 price competition is compatible with positive mark ups in equilibrium and 2 worse performing funds set fees that are greater or equal to those set by better performing funds these predictions are supported by available empirical evidence

multidimensional separating equilibria and moral hazard an empirical study of national football league contract negotiations this paper empirically tests for a multidimensional separating equilibrium in contract negotiations and tests for evidence of the moral hazard inherent in many contracts using contract and performance data on players drafted into the national football league from 1986 through 1991 we find evidence that players use delay to agreement and incentive clauses to reveal their private information during contract negotiations in addition our empirical tests of the moral hazard issue indicate that a player s effort level is influenced by the structure of his contract

price endings when prices signal quality this paper provides a theoretical explanation for why firms behave as though they use round prices to signal quality by replacing the linear demand curve in bagwell and riordan s 1991 price as a signal of quality model with a kinked demand curve and analyzing what price endings firms are most likely to use the following observations can be made 1 firms that are using high prices to signal quality are more likely to set those prices at round numbers and 2 price endings themselves are not necessarily signals of quality a simulation was conducted to demonstrate that these findings generally hold true even in the presence of demand spikes at 9 ending prices e g schindler and kibarian 1996 finally empirical evidence is provided to demonstrate that firms tend to use more round prices for higherquality products and that this relationship is even stronger for product categories where consumers are less able to detect the true level of quality prior to purchase

extreme us stock market fluctuations in the wake of 9 11 we apply extreme value analysis to us sectoral stock indices in order to assess whether tail risk measures like value at risk and extremal linkages were significantly altered by 9 11 we test whether semi parametric quantile estimates of downside risk and upward potential have increased after 9 11 the same methodology allows one to estimate probabilities of joint booms and busts for pairs of sectoral indices or for a sectoral index and a market portfolio the latter probabilities measure the sectoral response to macro shocks during periods of financial stress so called tail s taking 9 11 as the sample midpoint we find that tail s often increase in a statistically and economically significant way this might be due to perceived risk of new terrorist attacks copyright 2008 john wiley sons ltd

promotions and product pricing parsimony versus veblenesque demand the veracity of the parsimonious law of demand has long been challenged by analyses of the veblen effect and prestige pricing backward bending demand curves often attend discussions of conspicuous consumption probing the sociological and psychological intricacies of potential consumer interdependencies scholars in economics and marketing have overlooked mundane product promotions for a monopolistic firm we formalize the relationship between the optimal price quantity combination and the thoroughness of product promotions iterating toward the profit maximizing thoroughness of product promotion gives rise to a backward bending price quantity locus challenges to the law of demand that ignore product promotions are thereby undercut

information and the provision of quality differentiated products governments often enact information provision policies to overcome asymmetric information of product qualities we show that increasing awareness among consumers of the quality of a good can but will not always encourage firms to produce goods with higher levels of quality even if product qualities increase social welfare may fall as information provision results in too much product differentiation we show that the effectiveness of emission taxes and output subsidies are affected by the level of consumer knowledge of product quality and we identify conditions under which information provision is welfare enhancing relative to these price instruments jel l15 q58 i introduction in the past 20 years consumers have become increasinglyconscious ofthe undesirable health and safety attributes of the products they consume and surveys suggest that a growing percentage of consumers are willing to pay more for higher quality products such as organic foods and household cleaners and detergents that contain less toxic ingredients guber 2003 other high quality products facing higher demand include energy efficient products like extended life lightbulbs and improved home insulation often these highquality products provide private benefits that are excludable to buyers as well as public benefits that are nonrival and nonexcludable for example reduced pesticide and chemical residue on food may lower the risk of cancer while also reducing contaminated run off that degrades ground and surface water quality extended life lightbulbs and improved home insulation may reduce an individual s utility bill while also reducing greenhouse gas emissions from lower energy consumption although interest in these types of high quality productsisgrowing demand isoften relatively small market shares of organic produce for

the role of market efficiency intuitions in consumer choice a case of compensatory inferences abstract the authors examine consumer inferences about product attributes that are unobservable at the time of the decision extant research predicts that in the absence of an explicit correlation between product attributes consumers will infer that the brand that is superior on the observable attributes is also superior on the unobservable attributes the authors propose an alternative inference strategy that makes the counterintuitive prediction that the apparently superior brand is inferior on the unobservable attributes the authors refer to these inferences as compensatory inferences and assert that they are associated with consumers intuitive theories about the competitive nature of a market in a series of four experiments the authors examine the occurrence of compensatory inferences and compare them with other inference strategies

demand signalling under unobservable effort in franchising linear and nonlinear price contracts we study the signalling strategy of a principal who is privately informed about its high demand potential to an uninformed risk neutral agent we analyze the model in the context of a contract between a franchisor and a franchisee we examine the distortions of a two part pricing scheme necessary to credibly inform the franchisee agent we also study whether the inability of the franchisor principal to observe the agent s effort moderates or exaggerates the distortions from the first best two part pricing scheme a surprising outcome is that even though the principal incurs greater signalling cost the magnitude of distortion in the two part scheme is smaller when service is unobservable than when it is not thus a signalling strategy employing the fixed and variable fees is harder to detect under moral hazard empirical studies failing to control for moral hazard may incorrectly conclude that signalling strategy does not occur we later consider a three part scheme to verify whether or not the schem

strategic it investments the impact of switching cost and declining it cost the declining cost of information technology it over time provides the later entrant in information intensive industries a cost advantage on the other hand the earlier entrant has the potential to build and retain its market share if consumers incur a cost in switching to the later entrant we investigate the impact of a decline in the it cost and the switching cost on it investment strategies of firms we find that a declining it cost always hurts the early entrant s profit the early entrant may assume an aggressive investment strategy or a defensive investment strategy in response to a decline in the it cost depending on whether the switching cost relative to the extent of decline in the it cost is high or low respectively a decline in it cost also hurts the later entrant s profit if the switching cost is high a surprising result is that when the decline in the it cost is higher than a critical value a higher switching cost increases consumer surplus when firms control the switching cost the early entrant increases its investment in quality and switching cost and maintains its quality and its market share leadership irrespective of the extent of decline in the it cost

the economics of immigration this literature review concerns the impact of immigration on the economy of the host country focusing on the experience of the united states the emphasis is on the period from the 1970s to the 1990s the author shows that research earlier in this period generally concluded that the economic effects of immigration were positive but that more recent research on later migrations have generally concluded that immigration may be having an adverse effect on the earnings of native unskilled workers and be placing an increased burden on welfare programs the importance of such economic analysis for the formulation of appropriate migration policies is stressed

the effect of recipient contribution requirements on support for social programs abstract a large literature examines the use of recipient contribution requirements in social programs to target people who most need and value aid yet little is known about public support for such requirements in a field experiment with a nationally representative sample we examine the effect of recipient contributions on charitable donations to a food aid program the response to recipient monetary contributions is non monotonic donations increase when recipients make small monetary contributions and return to baseline under large recipient contributions recipient time contribution requirements also increase program support results from additional treatments suggest that individuals use contribution requirements to increase both allocative efficiency screening recipients who most value the good and targeting efficiency screening recipients most in need our work informs the design of social programs which must respond to the preferences of voters and donors who provide political and financial support

extreme coexceedances in new eu member states stock markets abstract we analyze the financial integration of the new european union eu member states stock markets using the negative positive coexceedance variable that counts the number of large negative large positive returns on a given day across the countries a similar analysis is performed for the old eu countries we use a multinomial logit model to investigate how persistence asset classes and volatility are related to the coexceedance variables we find that the effects differ a between negative and positive coexceedance variables b between old and new eu member states and c before and after the eu enlargement in 2004 suggesting a closer connection of new eu stock markets to those in western europe

search method use by unemployed youth this article presents a search model which shows that search method choices should be related to their costs and expected productivities as well as to nonwage income and wage offer distributions the empirical evidence then shows that the most frequently used search methods i e friends and relatives and direct applications without referral are also the most productive in generating offers and acceptances the number of methods used is affected by factors that presumably reflect opportunities as well as income sources and needs specific methods are chosen in a manner that generates positive average effects on outcomes for those using them

immigrant job search assimilation in canada immigrant assimilation is a major issue in many countries while most of the literature studies assimilation through a human capital framework we examine the role of job search assimilation to do so we estimate an equilibrium search model of immigrants operating in the same labour market as natives where newly arrived immigrants have lower job offer arrival rates than natives but can acquire the same arrival rates according to a stochastic process using canadian panel data we find substantial differences in job offer arrival and destruction rates between natives and immigrants that are able to account for three quarters of the observed earnings gap the estimates imply that immigrants take on average 13 years to acquire the native search parameters due to immigrants facing much lower on the job offer arrival rates than natives the model predicts that earnings growth through job search is minimal for immigrants prior to their job search assimilation

job search and immigrant assimilation an earnings frontier approach this study examines labor market assimilation by measuring the information utilized by immigrants during job search assimilation is assumed to occur whenever such information increases with length of residence in the united states and repeated job searches the authors assert that information utilized during job search reduces differentials between actual and potential maximum attainable earnings coauthors are henry w herzog jr richard a hofler and alan m schlottmann copyright 1992 by mit press

is the new immigration really so bad this article reviews the recent evidence on us immigration focusing on two key questions 1 does immigration reduce the labour market opportunities of less skilled natives 2 have immigrants who arrived after the 1965 immigration reform act been successfully assimilated overall evidence that immigrants have harmed the opportunities of less educated natives is scant on the question of assimilation the success of the us born children of immigrants is a key yardstick by this metric post 1965 immigrants are doing reasonably well even children of the least educated immigrant origin groups have closed most of the education gap with the children of natives

ranking unemployment duration and wages it explores the implication of one central assumption when firms receive multiple acceptable applications they hire the worker who has been unemployed for the least amount of time this assumption ranking is contrasted with the assumption of random hiring no ranking by embodying this assumption in a model of the labour market with job creation destruction and matching the joint behaviour of unemployment the distribution of unemployment durations and wages are characterized the implication that the re employment prospects of employed workers were they to become unemployed are better than those of the currently unemployed appears to have been an important feature of european unemployment experience in the 1980 s this paper examines the effects of the composition of unemployment on wage determination it explores one central assumption when firms receive multiple acceptable applications they hire the worker who has been unemployed for the least amount of time we refer to this assumption as ranking and contrast it throughout to the assumption of random hiring or no ranking by embodying this assumption in a model of the labour market with job creation destruction and matching we characterize the joint behaviour of unemployment the distribution of unemployment durations and wages ranking has a number of important implications first in addition to the obvious result that the exit rate from unemployment is a decreasing function of duration we show that the effect of duration is stronger the higher the rate of unemployment second with the wage depending on the distributions of prospective unemployment durations the presence of long term unemployed per se has little effect on wages third looking at the relation between the wage and the aggregate level of unemployment and comparing ranking to the case of no ranking the wage moves less with the level of unemployment but more with the change in unemployment put simply ranking and no ranking models show exactly the same aggregate unemployment slightly different long run responses of wages to unemployment and sharply different wage dynamics the paper is organized as follows section i characterizes the matching process and derives a matching function based on an urn ball process with vacancies as urns and applications by unemployed workers as balls thus the distribution of applications per vacancy depends on aggregate unemployment and vacancies vacancies with at least one acceptable application are filled when a vacancy receives more than one acceptable application firms use a rule to choose among applicants thus the rule determines who is hired but does not affect the number of hires section ii uses this matching function in a model of the labour market with continual job creation and destruction and characterizes the equilibrium values of unemployment vacancies and hires

asset market linkages in crisis periods we characterize asset return linkages during periods of stress by an extremal dependence measure contrary to correlation analysis this nonparametric measure is not predisposed toward the normal distribution and can allow for nonlinear relationships our estimates for the g 5 countries suggest that simultaneous crashes between stock markets are much more likely than between bond markets however for the assessment of financial system stability the widely disregarded cross asset perspective is particularly important for example our data show that stock bond contagion is approximately as frequent as flight to quality from stocks into bonds extreme cross border linkages are surprisingly similar to national linkages illustrating a potential downside to international financial integration

bank stock returns and economic growth previous research has established i that a country s financial sector influence future economic growth and ii that stock market index returns affect future economic growth we extend and tie together these two strands of the growth literature by analyzing the relationship between banking industry stock returns and future economic growth using dynamic panel techniques to analyze panel data from 18 developed and 18 emerging markets we find a positive and significant relationship between bank stock returns and future gdp growth that is independent of the previously documented relationship between market index returns and economic growth we also find that much of the informational content of bank stock returns is captured by country specific and institutional characteristics such as bank accounting disclosure standards banking crises enforcement of insider trading law and government ownership of banks

why do markets move together an investigation of u s japan stock return comovements this article explores the fundamental factors that affect cross country stock return correlations using transactions data from 1988 to 1992 we construct overnight and intraday returns for a portfolio of japanese stocks using their nyse traded american depository receipts adrs and a matched sample portfolio of u s stocks we find that u s macroeconomic announcements shocks to the yen dollar foreign exchange rate and treasury bill returns and industry effects have no measurable influence on u s and japanese return correlations however large shocks to broadbased market indices nikkei stock average and standard and poor s 500 stock index positively impact both the magnitude and persistence of the return correlations stock return cross country covariances play a key role in international finance changes in these covariances affect the volatility of portfolios and asset prices as these covariances increase one expects that a fewer domestic risks are internationally diversifiable so portfolio volatility increases b the risk premium on the world market portfolio increases 1 c the cost of capital increases for individual firms and d the domestic version of the capm becomes increasingly inadequate 2 despite the important economic consequences of changes in cross country covariances the determinants of the levels and dynamics of these covariances have been little studied from an academic

collective marketing arrangements for geographically differentiated agricultural products welfare impacts and policy implications this paper examines the incentive of atomistic agricultural producers within a specific geographical region to differentiate and collectively market products we develop a model that allows us to analyze the market and welfare effects of the main types of real world producer organizations using it to derive economic insights regarding the circumstances under which these organizations will evolve and describing implications of the results obtained in the context of an ongoing debate between the european union and united states as the anticipated fixed costs of development and marketing increase and the anticipated size of the market falls it becomes essential to increase the ability of the producer organization to control supply in order to ensure the coverage of fixed costs whenever a collective organization allows a market with a new product to exist that otherwise would not have existed there is an increase in societal welfare counterintuitively stronger property right protection for producer organizations may be welfare enhancing even after a differentiated product has been developed the reason for this somewhat paradoxical result is that legislation aimed at curtailing the market power of producer organizations may induce large technological distortions

quality uncertainty and price in monopoly markets this paper examines a monopoly firm s pricing strategy in a market in which consumers have varying and imprecise estimates of the quality of the firm s product it is shown that the firm s price declines in response to an increase in the level of consumer uncertainty about quality when consumer tastes for the product are sufficiently similar and their uncertainty about quality is sufficiently small when one or both of these conditions fails to hold however it is shown that the monopoly firm s price is positively related to the level of consumer uncertainty about quality copyright 1996 by blackwell publishing ltd