an analysis of feed in tariff remuneration models implications for renewable energy investment recent experience from around the world suggests that feed in tariffs fits are the most effective policy to encourage the rapid and sustained deployment of renewable energy there are several different ways to structure a fit policy each with its own strengths and weaknesses this paper presents an overview of seven different ways to structure the remuneration of a fit policy divided into two broad categories those in which remuneration is dependent on the electricity price and those that remain independent from it this paper examines the advantages and disadvantages of these different fit models and concludes with an analysis of these design options with a focus on their implications both for investors and for society

a search theoretic model of the retail market for illicit drugs a search theoretic model of the retail market for illegal drugs is developed trade occurs in bilateral potentially long lived matches between sellers and buyers buyers incur search costs when experimenting with a new seller moral hazard is present because buyers learn purity only after a trade is made this model is consistent with some new stylized facts about the drugs market and it is informative for policy design the effectiveness of different enforcement strategies is evaluated including some novel ones that leverage the moral hazard present in the market copyright oxford university press

an economic theory of self control the concept of self control is incorporated in a theory of individual intertemporal choice by modeling the individual as an organization the individual at a point in time is assumed to be both a farsighted planner and a myopic doer the resulting conflict is seen to be fundamentally similar to the agency conflict between the owners and managers of a firm both individuals and firms use the same techniques to mitigate the problems which the conflicts create this paper stresses the implications of this agency model and discusses as applications the effect of pensions on saving saving and the timing of income flows and individual discount rates

is tiger woods loss averse persistent bias in the face of experience competition and high stakes although experimental studies have documented systematic decision errors many leading scholars believe that experience competition and large stakes will reliably extinguish biases we test for the presence of a fundamental bias loss aversion in a high stakes context professional golfers performance on the pga tour golf provides a natural setting to test for loss aversion because golfers are rewarded for the total number of strokes they take during a tournament yet each individual hole has a salient reference point par we analyze over 2 5 million putts using precise laser measurements and find evidence that even the best golfers including tiger woods show evidence of loss aversion jel d03 d81 l83

self rewards and personal motivation self administered rewards are ubiquitous they serve as incentives for personal accomplishments and are widely recommended to increase personal motivation we show that in a model with time inconsistent and reference dependent preferences self rewards can be a credible and effective tool to overcome self control problems we also discuss the different types of self rewards the individual can use such as vice goods and virtue goods and analyze which types of goods the individual prefers

regulation profitability and diffusion of photovoltaic grid connected systems a comparative analysis of germany and spain abstract although both germany and spain were pioneers in the support and adoption of photovoltaics pv through feed in tariffs fits germany is the world s leading country in terms of installed pv capacity per capita and remains on a path of pv growth while the spanish pv market is virtually paralysed we analyse the divergent performance in both countries by reviewing the evolution of fits and by analysing the profitability of different types of installations for the period 2004 2014 while in germany the policies profitability and diffusion of pv were relatively stable over time in spain erratic policy changes and the distortionary effect of the solar orchard ownership structure caused a diffusion bubble june 2007 september 2008 and a subsequent profitability bubble 2009 2011 these bubbles led to the collapse of the support system in 2012 revealing the difficulty inherent in designing innovation and diffusion policies in the context of high uncertainty and rapid technological change

reference dependent preferences and labor supply the case of new york city taxi drivers i develop a model of daily labor supply where preferences are dependent on a reference daily income level and i apply this model to data on the labor supply of new york city taxi drivers i find that there may be a reference level of income on a given day that affects labor supply however there is substantial day to day variation in a given driver s reference level and most shifts end before reaching the reference income level this pattern is inconsistent with an important role for reference dependent preferences

the metamorphosis of development economics abstract the scientific paradigm of development economics is not dead nor is it declining in importance instead it has desynthesized into more than 30 analytical and specialized subparadigms which deal with the complex economic phenomena in ldcs the great number of sub disciplines of development economics is a verification of the dynamic evolution of the discipline and shows its trend towards increased specialization which seems to be the true index of the scientific progress of the subject for those who complain that the current output of new development theories is smaller w a lewis we remind them that development economics is a discipline which has more of a praxeological concrete orientation than a theoretical abstract one it seems that the world today needs more the exercise of development praxeology by the activist than the abstract theorizing of the purists however the study and empirical research of development phenomena in the context of the 30 or more specialized sub disciplines offers an opportunity for improving the quality of our knowledge on these phenomena by the recurrent validation and consolidation of development theories

beyond beta delta the emerging economics of personal plans abstract people make personal plans regarding whether when where and how to undertake certain actions we discuss three questions related to personal plans first what are the effects of plans on behavior second when are plans formed third how do plans deviate from optimality for each of these questions we a offer a brief overview of research that sheds light on the issue and b identify gaps in current knowledge we emphasize connections to the growing theoretical literature that gives personal plans a substantive role but we conclude that more research is needed especially on the latter two questions we cover

strategic interdependence in models of property rights the concept of strategic interdependence has opened a wide spectrum of explanation beyond the robinson crusoe economy this essay explores the implications of strategic interdependence for the theory of property rights and the new institutional economics schotter it attempts to clarify some of the linkages from institutional economics to micro and macroeconomic theory by considering how property institutions result from strategic interdependence confer payoffs to individual agents and reflect collective choices based on individual preferences

informal commitments in planner doer games abstract this paper studies the role of informal commitments in dynamic choice under self control informal commitments in contrast to formal commitments are ad hoc personal rules of behavior that are not always observable moreover the effectiveness of these rules in constraining future choices is often dependent on the decision maker we model informal commitments using an extension of a standard planner doer model after thaler and shefrin 1981 taking a preference over menus i e formal commitments as an observable our main results show how to elicit and partially identify this model our model can explain evidence on self control behavior that cannot be represented by the gul and pesendorfer 2001 model of self control nor by any of its recent extensions

evaluating natural resource investments notwithstanding impressive advances in the theory of finance over the past 2 decades practical procedures for capital budgeting have evolved only slowly the standard technique which has remained unchanged in essentials since it was originally proposed see dean 1951 bierman and smidt 1960 derives from a simple adaptation of the fisher 1907 model of valuation under certainty under this technique expected cash flows from an investment project are discounted at a rate deemed appropriate to their risk and the resulting present value is compared with the cost of the project this standard textbook technique reflects modern theoretical developments only insofar as estimates of the discount rate may be obtained from crude application of single period asset pricing theory but see brennan 1973 bogue and roll 1974 turnbull 1977 constantinides 1978 the inadequacy of this approach to capital budgeting is widely acknowledged although not widely discussed its obvious deficiency is its the evaluation of mining and other natural resource projects is made particularly difficult by the high degree of uncertainty attaching to output prices it is shown that the techniques of continuous time arbitrage and stochastic control theory may be used not only to value such projects but also to determine the optimal policies for developing managing and abandoning them the approach may be adapted to a wide variety of contexts outside the natural resource sector where uncertainty about future project revenues is a paramount concern

psychological factors and stock option exercise we investigate stock option exercise decisions by over 50 000 employees at seven corporations controlling for economic factors psychological factors influence exercise consistent with psychological models of beliefs employees exercise in response to stock price trends exercise is positively related to stock returns during the preceding month and negatively related to returns over longer horizons consistent with psychological models of values that include reference points employee exercise activity roughly doubles when the stock price exceeds the maximum price attained during the previous year

behavioral economics for environmental policy abstract the predictions of widely prescribed global and country level environmental policies at present are based mainly on mainstream economic models which treat individual actors to be unboundedly rational in their decision making in recent years however behavioral and experimental economists have found that the individual actors in many circumstances act within a bounded rationality framework suggesting that predictions based on the unbounded rationality models would be less valid while some of mainstream economists have already started adopting the bounded rationality based models in their academic discourse many environmental economists seem to be reluctant to use these alternative models of rationality in their research and policy prescriptions this paper highlights the implications of using bounded rationality models in environmental research in general and policymaking in particular

testing for forward looking behaviour evidence from the enactment of smoking restrictions abstractthis paper develops a new test for forward looking behaviour based on the establishment of public smoking restrictions given that the announcement of these restrictions effectively increases the future cost of smoking we should expect forward looking smokers to curb their consumption before the restriction is effective due to complementarity between present and future consumption i perform the estimation using detailed high frequency household level purchase data the results provide evidence against the forward looking behaviour of smokers households do not reduce their cigarette purchases before announced public smoking restrictions are established they only do so once the restriction is in effect

investment under uncertainty and time inconsistent preferences abstract while standard real options models assume that agents possess a constant rate of time preference there is substantial evidence that agents are impatient about choices in the short term but are patient when choosing between long term alternatives we extend the real options framework to model the investment timing decisions of entrepreneurs with time inconsistent preferences the impact on investment timing depends on such factors as whether entrepreneurs are sophisticated or naive in their expectations regarding their future time inconsistent behavior and whether the payoff from investment occurs all at once or over time the model is extended to the case of a competitive equilibrium

the role of feed in tariffs in emission mitigation turkish case abstract the aim of this paper is to present the role of feed in tariffs fits on ghg emission reduction in turkey due to insufficient installed capacity turkey can only utilize 27 of its total economically viable renewable energy potential to increase the share of the renewables utilization of these sources has become a top priority in the overall energy agenda thus new regulations and policies are introduced these policies are expected to serve to increase installed capacities of renewable energy power plants and reduce the co2 emissions intensities feed in tariffs is considered as a promising policy to increase share of renewable energy and reduction of co2 however the co2 emission intensity in electricity generation has not changed after the fits were launched indicating that additional policies possibly including a revision of the current renewable energy support mechanism regime should be reconsidered

quasi hyperbolic discounting and social security systems hyperbolic discounting has become a common assumption for modeling bounded rationality with respect to individual savings decisions we examine the effects of hyperbolic discounting on the comparison of alternative social security systems we show that this form of bounded rationality breaks the equivalence between funded and pay as you go systems established in sheshinski and weiss 1981 intergenerational transfers within a payg economy are usually secured by the social security system and independent of longevity whereas this is not the case for the funded economy the savings level under hyperbolic discounting is lower than under exponential discounting laibson et al 1996 but the ratio between the savings level under hyperbolic discounting within a funded economy and a payg economy depends on the effectiveness of the commitment devices it is shown that if individuals are hyperbolic discounters then in a payg economy any change in the mandated level of intergenerational transfers is neutralized by individuals voluntary bequests this does not apply to a funded system

anomalies in intertemporal choice evidence and an interpretation research on decision making under uncertainly has been strongly influenced by the documentation of numerous expected utility eu anomalies behaviors that violate the expected utility axioms the relative lack of progress on the closely related topic of intertemporal choice is partly due to the absence of an analogous set of discounted utility du anomalies we enumerate a set of du anomalies analogous to the eu anomalies and propose a model that accounts for the anomalies as well as other intertemporal choice phenomena incompatible with du we discuss implications for savings behavior estimation of discount rates and choice framing effects

circumventing formal structure through commitment presidential influence and agenda control although the formal institutional structure that defines the temporal order of play in a policy game between the congress and president ought to provide congress with agenda power the president is traditionally treated as the dominant player in this relationship we show that if the president can make clear cut commitments presidential commitment can counter the dominance hierarchy and the complexion of equilibrium outcomes thus the details of political interactions in particular the possibilities for commitment may be as important as the formal specification of institutional structure

consumption self control by rationing purchase quantities of virtue and vice consumers attempts to control their unwanted consumption impulses influence many everyday purchases with broad implications for marketers pricing policies addressing theoreticians and practitioners alike this paper uses multiple empirical methods to show that consumers voluntarily and strategically ration their purchase quantities of goods that are likely to be consumed on impulse and that therefore may pose self control problems for example many regular smokers buy their cigarettes by the pack although they could easily afford to buy 10 pack cartons these smokers knowingly forgo sizable per unit savings from quantity discounts which they could realize if they bought cartons by rationing their purchase quantities they also self impose additional transactions costs on marginal consumption which makes excessive smoking overly difficult and costly such strategic self imposition of constraints is intuitively appealing yet theoretically problematic the marketing literature lacks operationalizations and empirical tests of such consumption self control strategies and of their managerial implications this paper provides experimental evidence of the operation of consumer self control and empirically illustrates its direct implications for the pricing of consumer goods moreover the paper develops a conceptual framework for the design of empirical tests of such self imposed constraints on consumption in consumer goods markets within matched pairs of products we distinguish relative virtue and vice goods whose preference ordering changes with whet her consumers evaluate immediate or delayed consumption consequences for example ignoring long term health effects many smokers prefer regular relative vice to light relative virtue cigarettes because they prefer the taste of the former however ignoring these short term taste differences the same smokers prefer light to regular cigarettes when they consider the long term health effects of smoking these preference orders can lead to dynamically inconsistent consumption choices by consumers whose tradeoffs between the immediate and delayed consequences of consumption depend on the time lag between purchase and consumption this creates a potential self control problem because these consumers will be tempted to over consume the vices they have in stock at home purchase quantity rationing helps them solve the self control problem by limiting their stock and hence their consumption opportunities such rationing implies that per purchase occasion vice consumers will be less likely than virtue consumers to buy larger quantities in response to unit price reductions such as quantity discounts we first test this prediction in two laboratory experiments we then examine the external validity of the results at the retail level with a field survey of quantity discounts and with a scanner data analysis of chain wide store level demand across a variety of different pairs of matched vice regular and virtue reduced fat calorie or caffeine etc product categories the analyses of these experimental field and scanner data provide strong convergent evidence of a characteristic crossover in demand schedules for relative vices and virtues for categories as diverse as among others potato chips chocolate chip cookies cream cheese beer soft drinks ice cream and frozen yogurt chewing gum coffee and beef andturkey bologna vice consumers demand increases less in response to price reductions than virtue consumers demand although their preferences are not generally weaker for vices than for virtues constraints on vice purchases are self imposed and strategic rather than driven by simple preferences we suggest that rationing their vice inventories at the point of purchase allows consumers to limit subsequent consumption as a result of purchase quantity rationing however vice buyers forgo savings from price reductions through quantity discounts effectively paying price premiums for the opportunity to engage in self control thus purchase quantity rationing vice consumers are relatively price in sensitive from a managerial and public policy perspective our findings should offer marketing practitioners in many consumer goods industries new opportunities to increase profits through segmentation and price discrimination based on consumer self control they can charge premium prices for small sizes of vices relative to the corresponding quantity discounts for virtues virtue consumers on the other hand will buy larger amounts even when quantity discounts are relatively shallow a key conceptual contribution of this paper lies in showing how marketing researchers can investigate a whole class of strategic self constraining consumer behaviors empirically moreover this research is the first to extend previous theoretical work on impulse control by empirically demonstrating its broader implications for marketing decision making

hyperbolic discounting and the phillips curve using a standard dynamic general equilibrium model we show that the interaction of staggered nominal contracts with hyperbolic discounting leads to inflation having significant long run effects on real variables

rational addiction with learning and regret we present a theory of rational behavior in which individuals maximize a set of stable preferences over goods with unknown addictive power the theory is based on three fundamental postulates that consumption of the addictive good is not equally harmful to all that individuals possess subjective beliefs concerning this harm and that beliefs are optimally undated with information gained through consumption although individual actions are optimal and dynamically consistent addicts regret their past consumption decisions and regret their initial assessment of the potential harm of the good addict prone individuals who believe it could not happen to them are most likely to be drawn into a harmful addiction

the new institutional economics and its applicability to development abstract the several remarkable developments in the social sciences which have come to be known as the new institutional economics nie have not yet been fully exploited for analyzing the determinants and effects of institutional change in the context of development this paper identifies two important components of the nie and illustrates both a potential complementarities between them and b their applicability to various problems and policies in the long term development of developing countries

saving more in groups field experimental evidence from chile abstract we test the impact of a peer group program on savings in a sample of microcredit clients we conduct two randomized trials among these 2687 microcredit clients the first finds that a savings group treatment which combines public goal setting monitoring in the group and non financial rewards increases savings in a new savings account significantly the number of deposits grows 3 7 fold and the average balance almost doubles in contrast a more classical measure a substantially increased interest rate has no effect for most participants and raises the savings balance only for the very top of the distribution a second experiment conducted a year later tests an alternative delivery mechanism and shows that effects of similar size can be achieved through feedback text messages without meetings rewards or peer pressure given that participants are borrowing at 90 apr we discuss how and when saving more could be harmful or beneficial

expectations as endowments evidence on reference dependent preferences from exchange and valuation experiments while evidence suggests that people evaluate outcomes with respect to reference points little is known about what determines them we conduct two experiments that show that reference points are determined at least in part by expectations in an exchange experiment we endow subjects with an item and randomize the probability they will be allowed to trade subjects that are less likely to be able to trade are more likely to choose to keep their item in a valuation experiment we randomly assign subjects a high or low probability of obtaining an item and elicit their willingness to accept for it the high probability treatment increases valuation of the item by 20 30 copyright 2011 oxford university press

to be consumed with moderation abstract we study the optimal behavior of a hyperbolic discounting agent who has incomplete information about his own preferences and can only learn them through consumption we show that even if moderate current consumption and moderate future consumption always dominates abstinence the agent may optimally decide not to consume as a commitment device against inefficient learning that would lead to future excesses this provides a rationale for why smokers gamblers or compulsive buyers stick to second best personal rules of behavior such as abstinence without invoking standard habit formation arguments we also study how urges modify the strategy of the individual

the fewer the better number of goals and savings behavior abstract this article examines the effect of the number of goals on consumers savings behavior drawing from research on implementation intention the authors show that under certain conditions presenting a single savings goal leads to greater savings intention and actual savings than presenting multiple savings goals multiple goals typically evoke trade offs among competing goals and thus increase the likelihood that people will remain in a deliberative mind set and defer actions in contrast the authors propose and demonstrate that a single goal evokes a stronger implementation intention which in turn has a greater effect on behavior change they also show that the advantage of a single goal over multiple goals on saving is attenuated when saving is easier to implement or when the multiple savings goals are integrated rather than competing among themselves theoretical and practical implications are discussed

temptation and taxation we study optimal taxation when consumers have temptation and self control problems embedding the class of preferences developed by gul and pesendorfer into a standard macroeconomic setting we first prove in a two period model that the optimal policy is to subsidize savings when consumers are tempted by excessive impatience the savings subsidy improves welfare because it makes succumbing to temptation less attractive we then study an economy with a long but finite horizon which nests as a special case the phelps pollak laibson multiple selves model thereby providing guidance on how to evaluate welfare in this model we prove that when period utility is logarithmic the optimal savings subsidies increase over time for any finite horizon moreover as the horizon grows large the optimal policy prescribes a constant subsidy in contrast to the well known chamley judd result

a dual self model of impulse control we propose that a simple dual self model gives a unified explanation for several empirical regularities including the apparent time inconsistency that has motivated models of quasi hyperbolic discounting and rabin s paradox of risk aversion in the large and small the model also implies that self control costs imply excess delay as in the o donoghue and rabin models of quasi hyperbolic utility and it explains experimental evidence that increased cognitive load makes temptations harder to resist the base version of our model is consistent with the gul pesendorfer axioms but we argue that these axioms must be relaxed to account for the effect of cognitive load

forecasting volatility using long memory and comovements an application to option valuation under sfas 123r horizon matched historical volatility is commonly used to forecast future volatility for op tion valuation under the statement of financial accounting standards sfas 123r in this paper we empirically investigate the performance of using historical volatility to forecast long term stock return volatility in comparison with a number of alternative forecasting methods in analyzing forecasting errors and their impact on reported income due to option expensing we find that historical volatility is a poor forecast for long term volatility and that shrinkage adjustment toward comparable firm volatility only slightly improves its per formance forecasting performance can be improved substantially by incorporating both long memory and comovements with common market factors we also experiment with a simple mixed horizon realized volatility model and find its long term forecasting perfor mance to be more accurate than historical forecasts but less accurate than long memory forecasts

tobacco taxes and starting and quitting smoking does the effect differ by education this article uses duration analysis to investigate the role of tobacco taxes in starting and quitting smoking applying a variety of parametric duration models to a sample of irish women it finds that in general tobacco taxes do influence starting and quitting smoking in the expected direction it also finds that the effect for starting differs by education but in a nonmonotonic way with the greatest effect for women with intermediate levels of education the results for quitting suggest the greatest effect for women with the lowest level of education these results are unchanged when account is taken of unobserved heterogeneity

the abcs of financial education experimental evidence on attitudes behavior and cognitive biases this paper uses a large scale field experiment in india to study attitudinal behavioral and cognitive constraints that stymie the link between financial education and financial outcomes the study complements financial education with i participant classroom motivation with pay for performance on a knowledge test ii intensity of treatment with personalized financial counseling and iii behavioral nudges with financial goal setting the analysis finds no impact of pay for performance but significant effects of both counseling and goal setting on real financial outcomes these results identify important complements to financial education that can bridge the gap between financial knowledge and financial behavior change

a theory of haste abstract we consider a hyperbolic discounting agent at each period he can undertake an irreversible consumption decision that yields an uncertain current benefit and a delayed cost if he decides to defer consumption for the future some information exogenously flows in we show that the agent may rationally decide to consume with negative expected net present value npv only to prevent himself from consuming in the future which could be profitable from a future perspective but highly detrimental from the current viewpoint comparative statics reveal that the value of information is u shaped

the exercise and valuation of executive stock options abstract in theory hedging restrictions faced by managers make executive stock options more difficult to value than ordinary options because they imply that exercise policies of managers depend on their preferences and endowments using data on option exercises from 40 firms this paper shows that a simple extension of the ordinary american option model which introduces random exogenous exercise and forfeiture predicts actual exercise times and payoffs just as well as an elaborate utility maximizing model that explicitly accounts for the nontransferability of options the simpler model could therefore be more useful than the preference based model for valuing executive options in practice

the effect of credit on spending decisions the role of the credit limit and credibility the objective of the present research is to study consumer decisions to utilize a line of credit the life cycle hypothesis from economics argues that consumers should intertemporally reallocate their incomes over their life stream to maximize lifetime utility one form of intertemporal allocation is to use past income in the form of savings in the future a second form is the use of future income in the present this can only be done if consumers have access to a temporary pool of money that they can draw from and replenish in the future a function performed by consumer credit however our research reinforces prior findings that consumers are unable to correctly value their future incomes and that they lack the cognitive capability to solve the intertemporal optimization problem required by the life cycle hypothesis instead we argue that consumers use information such as the credit limit as a signal of their future earnings potential specifically if consumers have access to large amounts of credit they are likely to infer that their lifetime income will be high and hence their willingness to use credit and their spending will also be high conversely consumers who are granted lower amounts of credit are likely to infer that their lifetime income will be low and hence their spending will be lower however based on research in the area of consumer skepticism and inference making we also argue for a moderating role of the credibility associated with the credit limit specifically we argue that the above effect of credit availability would be particularly strong for consumers who believe that the credit limit credibly signals their future earnings potential i e a naive consumer who has limited experience with consumer credit however as consumers gain experience with credit they start discounting credit availability as a predictor of their future and start questioning the validity of the process used to set the credit limit hence with experience the effect of credit limit on the willingness to use credit should be attenuated we test these predictions in five separate studies in the first experimental study we manipulate credit limit and credibility and pose subjects with a hypothetical purchase opportunity consistent with our prediction credit limit impacted the propensity to spend but only when the credibility was high in the second experimental study we replicate these findings even when subjects were given information about their expected future salaries and also show that the credit limit influences their expectation of future earnings potential in the third study we show that the mere availability and increase of current liquidity cannot explain our findings in the fourth study we conduct a survey of consumers in which we measure a number of demographic characteristics and also ask them for their propensity to spend in a given purchase situation in the fifth study we use the survey of consumer finances scf dataset a triennial survey of u s families that is designed to provide detailed information on the use of financial services spending behaviors and selected demographic characteristics results from both studies 4 and 5 provide further support for our proposed framework credit limits influence spending to a greater extent for consumers with lower credibility younger consumers and less educated consumers across all studies we achieved triangulation by using a variety of approaches surveys and experiments subjects types young students and older consumers nature of predictor variables manipulated and measured dependent measures purchase likelihood credit card balance new charges and methods of analysis anova and regression and consistently found that increasing credit limits on a credit card increases spending especially when the credibility of the limit is high this paper joins a growing body of literature in marketing and behavioral decision theory that goes beyond the traditional domains of inquiry e g product choice effects of marketing mix variables and focuses on consumer decisions relating to the appropriate use of income to finance consumption our framework differs from prior research on the effect of payment mechanisms on spending in two significant ways first we are interested in the effects of the availability of credit on spending and not necessarily in the effect of the transaction format that is associated with each payment mechanism second while prior research has studied the point of purchase and historic i e prepurchase effects of credit the present research is concerned with the availability of credit in the future specifically our framework is invariant to the current and prior usage of credit by the consumer

addressing self disconnection among prepayment energy consumers a behavioural approach abstract this paper explores links between self control in decision making and self disconnection by households using energy prepayment meters self disconnection happens when households exhaust all available credit in their meter and are left without a supply of energy because they have been unable to top up this has serious consequences for the well being of households and also increases firms costs we explore behavioural characteristics associated with self disconnection and present saving plans to help households minimise self disconnection we show that in our sample stated self disconnection is positively associated with lower levels of goal achievement we also show that households which have already experienced self disconnection are more likely to accept an energy savings plan it is relevant and promising that these households tend to select saving plans most likely to minimise their likelihood of self disconnection our findings give some useful insights for energy policy making both for policy makers interested in alleviating energy poverty and for energy utilities keen to limit self disconnection

new york city cab drivers labor supply revisited reference dependent preferences with rational expectations targets for hours and income this paper reconsiders whether cabdrivers labor supply decisions reflect reference dependent preferences following botond koszegi and matthew rabin 2006 we construct a model with targets for hours as well as income both determined by rational expectations estimating using henry s farber s 2005 2008 data we show that the reference dependent model can reconcile his 2005 finding that drivers stopping probabilities are significantly related to hours but not income with the negative wage elasticity of hours found by colin camerer et al 1997 and farber 2005 2008 the model yields sensible estimates that avoid farber s 2008 criticism that drivers income targets are too unstable to allow a useful reference dependent model of labor supply

optimal dividend strategies with time inconsistent preferences abstract this paper studies the optimal dividend strategies of an insurance company when the manager has time inconsistent preferences we consider the problem for a naive manager and a sophisticated manager and analytically derive the optimal dividend strategies when claim sizes follow an exponential distribution our results show that the manager with time inconsistent preferences tends to pay out dividends earlier than her time consistent counterpart and that the sophisticated manager is more inclined to pay out dividends than the naive manager furthermore we extend these results to the case with claim sizes following a mixed exponential distribution and provide a numerical analysis to reveal the sensitivity of the optimal dividend strategies to changes in the premium claims and surplus volatility

self command in practice in policy and in a theory of rational choice an increasingly familiar occurrence for obstetricians is being asked by patients to withhold anesthesia during delivery the physician often proposes that a facemask be put beside the patient who may inhale nitrous oxide as she needs it but some determined patients ask that no such opportunity be provided if gas is available they will use it and they want not to be able to the request is interesting for decision theory and raises questions of ethics policy and physician responsibility even if the woman is merely making a mistake if she simply does not know how painful labor will be and how glad she will be even in retrospect if the pain is relieved but some women who make this request have had earlier deliveries during which they demanded anesthesia and received it they are acquainted with the pain they anticipate asking for relief and they want it withheld when they do they expect to regret afterwards any recourse to anesthesia this particular instance of attempted selfdenial has features that are special but many that are common the woman is so far as we know in good health physically and mentally she anticipates a transient period when her usual values and preferences will be suspended or inaccessible she has reasons for wanting to frustrate her own wishes at the critical time she needs cooperation she may ratify her choice afterward by expressing herself grateful that no anesthesia was offered even when requested there are ethical dilemmas and legal issues and there is conflict if say the husband disagrees with the physician in the delivery room about what his wife really wants

does stock return predictability affect eso fair value abstract executive stock options esos are modified american options that cannot be valued using standard methods with a few exceptions the literature has discussed the eso fair value by assuming unpredictable stock returns which are not supported by the available empirical evidence in this paper we obtain the fair value of american esos when stock returns are predictable and specifically driven by the trending ornstein uhlenbeck process of lo and wang 1995 we solve the executive s portfolio allocation problem for a simple buy and hold strategy when his wealth can be distributed between a risk free asset and a market portfolio this problem is jointly solved with the executive s optimal exercise policy we find that executives tend to wait longer the higher the predictability independently of the composition of executive s asset menu we have also analyzed the implications under the fas123r proposals for the eso fair value and found that even for low autocorrelations there is a meaningful mispricing when unpredictable returns are erroneously assumed

myopia and addictive behaviour we present a theory of addictive behaviour which can account for addicts apparent disregard for the future consequences of their current actions the discounting of future utility is increasing in past consumption indicating increasingly myopic behaviour as consumption increases the intertemporal complementarity generated by the endogenous discounting produces multiple steady states which can account for the simultaneous existence of myopic addicts and non myopic non addicts within a time consiste nt expected utility framework the theory also accounts for the probabilistic incidence of addiction and successful rehabilitation and the possibility of recurrence

income smoothing and self control the case of schoolteachers experimental economics is frequently criticized on the grounds that the incentives offered to subjects in the laboratory are too low to give the results any validity in particular when the results reject the standard economic maximizing model the presumption is frequently made that anomalies will go away if incentives are raised to levels faced in the real world indeed as camerer and hogarth 1999 have recently noted it is an open question what results from the laboratory tell us about incentives in naturally occurring environments 1 in this article we report the choices made by subjects in one such naturally occurring environment the choice of payment pattern by california public schoolteachers we calibrate the size of their incentives and show that depending on the discount rate chosen not insignificant amounts of income may be given up by large numbers of individuals all of whom are college graduates to implement what may be considered a sensible consumption plan but one that is not optimal according to the standard income smoothing utility maximizing model i the choice problem teachers usually work 10 months in a 12 month academic year so that if they are paid only during their working period they receive no salary in july and august in the standard economic model of intertemporal financial planning however the absence of summer salary payments would present no problem because teachers could simply save some fraction of their salary arranging whatever summer consumption pattern was desired within the overall budget constraint moreover because the income saved would accumulate interest this strategy would dominate a strategy of asking that the same annual salary be paid in 12 equal installments several authors e g thaler 1980 schelling 1984 thaler and shefrin 1981 loewenstein and prelec 1992 laibson 1997 rabin 1997 have questioned the validity of the standard model and proposed an alternative approach 2 in this new approach the teacher may well agree that the optimal plan is to smooth consumption by saving with interest during the earning months but executing this optimal plan is not without cost thaler and shefrin 1981 who explicitly note the schoolteachers planning problem argue that these implementation costs or costs of self control could change the behavior of teachers and make them willing to enter an implicit savings program at zero interest even though that would lower the present value of their income an obvious question for field investigation is how many do this and at what cost in addition for those teachers who enter such schemes it is of interest to know if they see themselves as being challenged by issues of self control ii the data our data come from two questionnaires the first questionnaire see appendix a was sent to 259 school districts in california 3 replies with usable data were received from 130 districts 50 a follow up telephone survey checked on the possibility that a school district might pay interest to teachers who choose to have their 10 months salary paid over 12 months and also that teachers might choose to be paid over an 11 month period 4 a second questionnaire shown in appendix b was sent to all teachers in one of the school districts identified in the first survey as offering a 12 month payment option 5 we obtained 121 responses with at least some useful information a response rate of 32 given the personal nature of some of the questions this response rate is reasonable though it does of course raise a question about the representativeness of our sample and its small size suggests that only tentative conclusions can be drawn from it iii choices offered and taken in the first survey 71 school districts 55 did not offer their employees any choice of salary arrangement of these 37 with 15 205 teachers paid salaries on a 10 month basis 15 with 11 284 teachers paid on a 12 month basis and i 0 districts paid teachers who work 10 months on a 10 month basis and those who work 12 months 12 times

some economic determinants of time series properties of earnings abstract the earnings time series literature in accounting focuses on the statistical characteristics of the processes which generate corporate earnings in order to further our understanding of earnings behavior this study investigates the question whether inter firm differences in these statistical characteristics autocorrelations and variances of earnings changes can be explained by economic factors various relationships between economic factors and earnings behavior are derived from the economic literature and examined empirically in this study findings indicate that autocorrelations and variability of annual earnings and earnings over equity changes are systematically associated with the following factors the type of product the height of industry barriers to entry a surrogate for degree of competition the degree of capital intensity operating leverage and the firm size

government subsidies for the chinese photovoltaic industry abstract since 2009 the subsidy for large scale photovoltaic pv power plants had been launched which effectively promoted the development of pv industry at the same time negative effects like serious oversupply of pv industry were brought about by these large scale governmental subsidies although governmental subsidy strongly supports the china pv companies few of them have competitiveness in the global market this dramatically conflictive phenomenon attracted many researchers attentions in recent years however investigations on the best entry and exit occasions of governmental subsidies for the pv industry were rarely reported in previous studies therefore based on the existing division method of enterprise development model classification of 72 pv companies listed in shanghai and shenzhen stock exchanges in china was firstly carried out in this paper this is followed by studying the influence of governmental subsidies on the indexes of different stages of enterprise development finally a conclusion was drawn that the governmental subsidies at early exploratory stage can maximize the social and economic effects suggesting the best entry occasion and subsidies at intermediate stage and mature stage have little effects on its turnover and aggravate the overcapacity of pv supply suggesting a suitable exit occasion

psychological expected utility theory and anticipatory feelings we extend expected utility theory to situations in which agents experience feelings of anticipation prior to the resolution of uncertainty we show how these anticipatory feelings may result in time inconsistency we provide an example from portfolio theory to illustrate the potential impact of anticipation on asset prices

forecasting currency volatility a comparison of implied volatilities and ar fi ma models we compare forecasts of the realized volatility of the pound mark and yen exchange rates against the dollar calculated from intraday rates over horizons ranging from one day to three months our forecasts are obtained from a short memory arma model a long memory arfima model a garch model and option implied volatilities we find intraday rates provide the most accurate forecasts for the one day and one week forecast horizons while implied volatilities are at least as accurate as the historical forecasts for the one month and three month horizons the superior accuracy of the historical forecasts relative to implied volatilities comes from the use of high frequency returns and not from a long memory specification we find significant incremental information in historical forecasts beyond the implied volatility information for forecast horizons up to one week

foreign exchange constraints and growth possibilities in the ldcs abstract we analyse the influence of foreign exchange constraints on output growth in the ldcs by studying the effect that these constraints have on the speed of adjustment of both investment and import activities we model the speed of adjustment of investment as a function of available foreign exchange resources and allow for imperfect substitutability between the domestic and the foreign capital stocks

empirical measures of factors affecting social rates of discount economists have long considered possible divergences between private and social rates of time preferences in this paper we investigate factors hypothesized to affect this potential divergence results indicate that time preferences of individuals may be influenced by 1 whether the resource in question is publicly or privately managed respondents tend to have lower rates of time prefernce for publicly managed resources and 2 the type of good being managed respondents tend to have lower rates of time preference for income derived from a forest than for income derived from a portfolio of stocks and bonds additional factors which may influence the revealed rate of time preference include the pattern of benefits derived over time and various personal characteristics of the respondent although numerous methodological problems cloud the issues our results suggest that capital markets may fail to aggregate utility over individuals and between goods and that it may therefore be appropriate for governments to consider using lower rates of discount than the private sector and to vary the rate used according to the type of good being evaluated

employee stock option exercises an empirical analysis this paper describes the exercise behavior of over 50 000 employees who hold longterm options on employer stock at eight corporations employees typically exercise options years before expiration commonly sacrificing half of the black scholes value exercise is strongly associated with recent stock price movements the market to strike ratio proximity to vesting dates time to maturity volatility and the employee s level within the company these findings have implications for compensation planners the fasb as it develops a new accounting standard for options and financial statement users and preparers who apply and interpret the new fasb standard

is tomorrow another day the labor supply of new york city cabdrivers the labor supply of taxi drivers is consistent with the existence of intertemporal substitution my analysis of the stopping behavior of new york city cabdrivers shows that daily income effects are small and that the decision to stop work at a particular point on a given day is primarily related to cumulative daily hours to that point this is in contrast to the analysis of camerer et al who find that the daily wage elasticity of labor supply of new york city cabdrivers is substantially negative implying large daily income effects this difference in findings is due to important differences in empirical methods and to problems with the conception and measurement of the daily wage rate used by camerer et al

goals and bracketing under mental accounting abstract behavioral economics struggles to explain why people sometimes evaluate outcomes separately narrow bracketing of mental accounts and sometimes jointly broad bracketing we develop a theory of endogenous bracketing where people set goals to tackle self control problems goals induce reference points that make substandard performance painful evaluating goals in a broadly bracketed mental account insulates an individual from exogenous risk of failure but because decisions or risks in different tasks become substitutes there are incentives to deviate from goals that are absent under narrow bracketing extensions include goal revision naivete about self control income targeting and firms bundling strategies

the persistence of volatility and stock market fluctuations this paper examines the potential influence of changing volatility in stock market prices on the level of stock market prices it demonstrates that volatility is only weakly serially correlated implying that shocks to volatility do not persist these shocks can therefore have only a small impact on stockmarket prices since changes in volatility affect expected required rates of return for relatively short intervals these findings lead us to be skeptical of recent claims that the stock market s poor performance during the 1970 s can be explained by volatility induced increases in risk premia this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

self regulation through goal setting goals are an important motivator but little is known about why and how people set them we address this issue in a model based on two stylized facts first goals serve as reference points for performance second present biased preferences create self control problems we show the power and limits of self regulation through goals goals increase an individual s motivation but only up to a certain point furthermore they are painful self disciplining devices thus greater self control problems may result in tougher goals but for a severe present bias goals either lack a motivating force or are too painful to be accepted

the duration of the smoking habit i introduction most smokers smoke out of habit once the habit is ended many of smoking s most harmful effects decline rather quickly preventing and ending cigarette addiction is therefore the straightest path toward preventing the health damage done by cigarette smoking consequently the related questions of why people start smoking and why they quit are central to formulating and evaluating effective antismoking policies duration or hazard models are designed to measure the probability of transition between states and are thus ideal for investigating the structural determinants of the transition between addiction and non addiction nevertheless most previous work in the economics literature uses the aggregate smoking participation rate defined as the percentage of people who currently smoke or an individual s probability of participation rather than a hazard rate to measure the attractiveness of habitual smoking this paper models the hazard rates of both starting and quitting the cigarette smoking habit the starting hazard rate is the probability that an individual will start smoking in a given time period conditional on being a nonsmoker until then the quitting hazard rate is the probability of quitting smoking in a given time period conditional on being a smoker since the starting date both of these rates should rise and fall in response to changes in the attractiveness of smoking the two rates will respond differently to different stimuli since the starting hazard reflects the point of view of nonsmokers and the quitting hazard reflects the point of view of smokers hazard or duration models possess several advantages over smoking participation models most obviously smoking participation rates cannot directly distinguish between increased starting rates and decreased quitting rates but the hazard models can also in a participation rate model it is difficult to control for the effect of the duration of the habit whereas duration models are designed specifically to allow for and measure the dependence of the hazard rate on duration another advantage is that the participation rate at any one time will oversample the number of long term smokers relative to those who had a short term habit whereas a duration model is designed to avoid this source of bias one drawback however is that because of their inherent panel nature the data requirements of duration models are somewhat more difficult to satisfy as shall be seen the only previous work in the economics literature that estimates the hazard rate of starting smoking is douglas and hariharan 1994 my paper improves upon douglas and hariharan in at least three important ways first it estimates the hazard rate of quitting smoking as well as that of starting second it takes into account variation in state level regulation third its time varying covariate model allows hazard rates to respond dynamically to changes in cigarette price regulation and information variables the use of time varying covariates is important because it brings the empirical model into much closer accord with theory the decision whether or not to start or quit smoking is an ongoing decision made one day at a time on the basis of current information the hazard of starting is greatest when the cost of the habit appears lowest and its benefit appears highest this comparison of cost and benefit changes through time as price information income and life cycle variables change while douglas and hariharan 1994 used price information from the potential smoker s most vulnerable age on the theory that its marginal effect is greatest at that time the model used in this paper allows each individual s hazard rate to respond to changes in price and public information as they occur the leading theoretical model of the decision to smoke is the rational addiction model of becker and murphy 1988 which assumes that consumers of addictive goods begin smoking only after fully weighing the costs and benefits of the habit

do workers prefer increasing wage profiles we present survey data challenging the assumption implicit in analyses of labor supply that all else being equal workers prefer declining over increasing wage profiles we test several explanations for our results including that a there is something special about wages e g their association with productivity as opposed to other types of payments that induces the preference for increasing wages b utility depends not only on absolute levels of consumption but also on changes in consumption over time and c respondents who prefer increasing wage profiles are irrational and would change their behavior if the rationale for preferring declining wages were explained

optimal contracts in a continuous time delegated portfolio management problem this article studies the contracting problem between an individual investor and a professional portfolio manager in a continuous time principal agent framework optimal contracts are obtained in closed form these contracts are of a symmetric form and suggest that a portfolio manager should receive a fixed fee a fraction of the total assets under management plus a bonus or a penalty depending upon the portfolio s excess return relative to a benchmark portfolio the appropriate benchmark portfolio is an active index that contains risky assets where the number of shares invested in each asset can vary over time rather than a passive index in which the number of shares invested in each asset remains constant over time fund managers compensation schemes in a delegated portfolio management setting have been of special interest to both academics and practitioners academic interest stems in part from the rapid growth of managed funds over the last two decades gompers and metrick 1998 report that by december 1996 mutual funds pension funds and other financial intermediaries held discretional control over more than half of the u s equity market it is thus of importance to study the impact of institutional trading on asset prices and to integrate into one model both asset pricing and delegated portfolio management compensation as advocated by brennan 1993 allen and santomero 1997 and allen 2001 it is also important to understand the relationship between a manager s trading strategies and his implicit incentives or career concerns see e g brown harlow and starks 1996 brown goetzmann and park 1997 chevalier and ellison 1999 and chen and pennacchi 2000 these concerns include internal promotion from a small to a large fund higher outside offers and the flow of money through the fund under management 1 the importance of fund manager compensation is also underscored by congressional passage in 1970 of the amendment to

sustainable photovoltaic technology development step by step guidance for countries facing pv proliferation turmoil under the feed in tariff scheme abstract in order to resolving climate change and energy security issues one of the promising technology solutions is photovoltaic pv so far the dominant policy measures and paradigm have been evolved from net metering and or investment grants to feed in tariff fit renewable portfolio standards or tendering scheme of them fit promoted by the second comer of germany has become the most successful and prevailing approach to promote pv around the globe however it also lead to the unexpected pv boom and over development in most fit countries and a lot of reform measures were introduced this article seeks to overview the historical development of fit scheme in major fit countries including germany italy france spain uk over the past decades their implementation and identify the specific reformed design elements during different round of fit reform surprisingly after such a deep investigation it is possible to predict the next move of fit reform in each country and to evaluate if the reform extent is too over or too less such a delicate step by step guidance may also be helpful for late and prospective fit comers to fine tune their scheme and to promote the sustainable development of pv

on intertemporal selfishness how the perceived instability of identity underlies impatient consumption how does the anticipated connectedness between one s current and future identity help explain impatience in intertemporal preferences the less consumers are closely connected psychologically to their future selves the less willing they will be to forgo immediate benefits in order to ensure larger deferred benefits to be received by that future self when consumers measured or manipulated sense of continuity with their future selves is lower they accept smaller sooner rewards wait less in order to save money on a purchase require a larger premium to delay receiving a gift card and have lower long term discount rates

goal setting and energy conservation abstract this paper develops a theoretical model of consumer demand for an energy conservation program that involves non binding self set goals we present evidence from a northern illinois goal setting program aimed at reducing residential electricity consumption which is difficult to reconcile with standard preferences and is broadly consistent with a model of present biased consumers with reference dependent preferences we find that the need for commitment is correlated with program adoption higher pre adoption consumption and lower responsiveness to goals consumers choosing realistic goals persistently save substantially more achieving savings of nearly 11 than those choosing very low or unrealistically high goals

labor supply of new york city cabdrivers one day at a time life cycle models of labor supply predict a positive relationship between hours supplied and transitory changes in wages because such changes have virtually no effect on life cycle wealth previous attempts to test this hypothesis empirically with time series data have not been supportive estimated elasticities are typically negative or nonsignificant such analyses however are vulnerable to measurement error and other estimation problems we use data on daily observations of wages and hours for new york city cab drivers to estimate the supply response to transitory fluctuations in wages cab drivers decide daily how many hours to supply and face wages that are positively correlated within days but largely uncorrelated between days using these data our central finding is that wage elasticities are persistently negative from 5 to 1 in three different samples even after correcting for measurement error using instrumental variables these negative wage elasticities challenge the notion that cab drivers trade off labor and leisure at different points in time and question the empirical adequacy of life cycle formulations of labor supply

incentives and ratcheting in a multiproduct firm a field experiment we develop a model and derive behavioral predictions for a multiproduct sales force subject to goals set based on past performance we test these predictions using a field experiment in which 53 salespersons from a chilean beverage company face exogenous variations in monthly sales goals confirming our predictions we found that 1 absent strategic considerations no goal ratcheting salespersons increase decrease sales in the product category for which the return to effort increases decreases 2 including strategic considerations behavior reverses salespersons who expect high goal ratcheting decrease increase sales in the category for which the return to effort increases decreases 3 sales did not change for the average salespersons reflecting heterogeneity in the expectations of goal ratcheting rather than unresponsiveness to incentives our study points at the importance of the dynamics of incentive design in particular the importance of understanding the dynamics of goal setting in fir

reference points and effort provision a key open question for theories of reference dependent preferences is what determines the reference point one candidate is expectations what people expect could affect how they feel about what actually occurs in a real effort experiment we manipulate the rational expectations of subjects and check whether this manipulation influences their effort provision we find that effort provision is significantly different between treatments in the way predicted by models of expectation based reference dependent preferences if expectations are high subjects work longer and earn more money than if expectations are low

power to change analysis of household participation in a renewable energy and energy efficiency programme in central australia the australian government funded a national solar city program 2008 2013 to support communities to increase adoption of energy efficiency measures and renewable energy technology one community was alice springs a town with about 9000 households in the geographic centre of australia the programme offered a package of support free energy audits discounts for the purchase of renewable energy technology and energy efficiency measures and ongoing information households that adopted solar hot water and photovoltaic systems reduced their electricity usage immediately after adoption by 10 and 34 respectively and this was maintained in the long term a small rebound effect of 15 was observed in the photovoltaic adopters it was observed that on average households that adopted only energy efficiency measures did not have a significant reduction in their electricity usage over the long term however consistent with expectations this study did show that there was a significant correlation between the number of energy efficiency measures adopted and the greatest household reduction in electricity usage these contrary results indicate that there are additional factors involved the connection between the effective use of measures coincident behavioural change or increased energy awareness and greater energy reduction is discussed

reference dependent consumption plans we develop a rational dynamic model in which people are loss averse over changes in beliefs about present and future consumption because changes in wealth are news about future consumption preferences over money are reference dependent if news resonates more when about imminent consump tion than when about future consumption a decision maker might to generate pleasant surprises overconsume early relative to the optimal committed plan increase immediate consumption following surprise wealth increases and delay decreasing consumption following surprise losses since higher wealth mitigates the effect of bad news people exhibit an unambiguous first order precautionary savings motive

goal setting and self control abstract this paper addresses the role of non binding goals to attenuate time inconsistency present biased agents have linear reference dependent preferences and endogenously set a goal that is the reference point they face an infinite horizon optimal stopping problem in continuous time when there is sufficient commitment to expectation based goals goal setting attenuates the present biased agent s tendency to stop too early and may even lead an agent to wait longer than the first best in particular reference dependence is strictly worse for a time consistent agent notably none of the effects of goal setting require loss aversion

a bayesian approach to modeling stock return volatility for option valuation new measures of stock return volatility are developed to increase the precision of stock option price estimates with bayesian statistical methods volatility estimates for a given stock are developed using prior information on the cross sectional patterns in return volatil ities for groups of stocks sorted on size financial leverage and trading volume call option values computed with the bayesian procedure generally improve prediction accuracy for market prices of call options relative to those computed using implied volatility standard historical volatility or even the actual ex post volatility that occurred during each option s life although the bayesian methods produce biased call price estimators they do reduce the systematic tendency of standard pricing approaches to overprice underprice options on high low volatility stocks little bias improvement is observed with respect to the time to maturity and moneyness of the call options

do people anticipate loss aversion there is growing interest in the use of loss contracts that offer performance incentives as up front payments that employees can lose standard behavioral models predict a trade off in the use of loss contracts employees will work harder under loss contracts than under gain contracts but anticipating loss aversion they will prefer gain contracts to loss contracts in a series of experiments we test these predictions by measuring performance and preferences for payoff equivalent gain and loss contracts we find that people indeed work harder under loss than gain contracts as the theory predicts surprisingly rather than a preference for the gain contract we find that people actually prefer loss contracts in exploring mechanisms for our results we find suggestive evidence that people do anticipate loss aversion but select into loss contracts as a commitment device to improve performance using one bias loss aversion to address another dynamic inconsistency data as supplemental material are a