how do market reforms affect china s responsiveness to environmental policy a large percentage of total investment in china is allocated by the central government at below market interest rates in pursuit of non economic objectives this has resulted in low rates of return and a high number of non performing loans threatening the future health of the chinese economy as a result reform of capital markets is a high priority of the chinese government at the same time the country is implementing various environmental policies to deal with serious pollution issues in this paper we ask how reforms of the capital market will affect the functioning of a carbon tax this allows us to assess how china s willingness to join global efforts to reduce carbon emissions is influenced by china s current efforts to reduce investment subsidies we compare the costs of a carbon tax in a reformed economy with the costs of a carbon tax in the current subsidized economy we find that in the subsidized economy the tax interaction effect dampens the effect of a carbon tax resulting in smaller reductions in emissions than what would result in a reformed economy importantly we also find that the effect on economic welfare from a carbon tax is lower in the subsidized economy in fact for lower levels of reductions the carbon tax is actually welfare improving these results have important implications for an economy undergoing economic transition the carbon tax rate required to achieve a certain level of emission reductions will be higher in an economy with capital subsidies however the welfare implications of the tax indicate that the current system with capital subsidies is highly distorting implying that there is a high efficiency cost for the non economic objectives the government is pursuing by maintaining this system of subsidies

a uk carbon energy tax a carbon energy tax has been proposed by the european commission to start as us 3 per barrel oil equivalent in 1993 rising to us 10 in 2000 the effects of this tax on the uk economy can be assessed by using a large scale energy environment economy model in which energy demand is treated by means of aggregate equations for energy users and fuel share equations for electricity and each of the main fossil fuels the electricity supply industry is represented in the model by simulating the characteristics of each existing generating station and of a range of new station types and by allowing the model to choose the fuels used from relative fuel prices and prices of capital inputs this approach contrasts with the multimodel approach used in most studies of the effects of the tax the tax is introduced as a tax on imports and domestic output of fossil fuels in proportion to their carbon and energy content with the tax being passed on through the economic system depending on the use of the fuels thus the electricity industry is faced with higher prices for coal gas and fuel oil and chooses to burn the different fuels according to their relative prices four scenarios are developed which vary according to the way the tax revenues are recycled through reductions in vat or in income tax rates and whether the tax is introduced throughout the european community or throughout the oecd if the tax is european it is assumed that the energy intensive industries will be exempt the outcome is that the tax is sufficient to stabilize co2 emissions over the period 1990 2005 at 12 below base levels by the end of the period there is an overall saving of energy compared to base and a further switch to gas in electricity generation the effects on the macroeconomy are rather small and as the revenues are recycled rather than saved by the government gdp growth is likely to increase under the tax by some 0 2 above base this confirms other studies in which revenues are recycled but contradicts many results from studies in which revenue recycling is ignored or incomplete the effects on the energy intensive industries are expected to be small in all the scenarios but 14 of tax revenues are lost if the industries are exempt

efficient environmental taxation under worker firm bargaining we study an economy with free firm entry and unemployment due to firm worker bargaining over each firm s surplus and where firms cause pollution that can be reduced by initial investments an uncompensated increase in the pollution tax reduces pollution but increases unemployment implying a tradeoff between the two when tax revenues are used to subsidize either firms hiring or investments employment may also increase creating a double dividend from the pollution tax a pollution tax increase used to subsidize current employment is always less effective than a hiring subsidy and is totally ineffective when subsidies equal pollution tax revenues for each individual firm we show that the hypothetical pollution tax implementing the first best solution exceeds the pigouvian tax the second best tax exceeds this first best tax when we have a double dividend and is below it when we do not

unraveling the complex interrelationships between exchange rates and fundamentals abstract this research investigates the intrinsic characteristics of currency values by fundamentally decomposing investor expectations on 16 currencies the results on 195 exchange rates over several decades indicate investors perceive countries to be more likely to choose devaluation solutions to bop problems when inflation is lower and when an alternative drop in real income growth is more painful in addition empirical support is provided for the hypothesis that forward rates often appear biased because the distributional expectations incorporated into them include for a country with a current account deficit a small probability of a large spot decline that does not actually occur in most finite samples

on strong independence of allocative efficiency from distribution in the theory of public goods abstract we extend bergstrom and cornes 1983 to show that for strong independence of efficient allocations from distribution in a public goods economy the utility functions of all consumers must identically be of the form a y x i where y and x i are respectively the quantities of public good and private good for consumer i and a is some arbitrary function this implies that for an economy with heterogeneous consumer preferences it is impossible to ensure that any redistribution of private goods will remain efficient especially for boundary pareto optima

is there a role for biofuels in promoting energy self sufficiency and security a cge analysis of biofuel policy in thailand given the rising price of crude oil some developing countries including thailand are looking towards developing their domestic renewable energy resources in particular biofuels however there are concerns about the possible adverse effects such a policy strategy would have on key variables such as sectoral output land allocation and the effects of prices particularly food prices this study develops a computable general equilibrium cge model of the thailand economy that features enhancements of the energy sector and uses it to analyze the government s recent renewable energy development plan this plan aims to increase domestic energy use from renewable sources to replace fossil fuel imports the study simulated specific policies contained in the plan among other things we found that promoting biofuel use causes a rapid increase in the price of biofuel and biofuel feedstock in the short run whereas these prices only increase slightly in the long run due to more elastic supplies the prices of food and other products marginally increase implying that food security is not undermined by the policy on the basis of the findings the study recommends a review of some of the targets because they were found to be rather high and a phasing in of others

green taxes can we protect the environment and improve the tax system at the same time on a cursory inspection public economics appears to provide a straightforward and compelling answer of yes to the question posed in the title to this paper as economists have long argued appropriately designed taxes can in principle at least efficiently restrain levels of polluting activities and in addition such taxes will generate revenues so that we can reduce rates on other forms of taxation that distort the functioning of the economy green taxes in short promise a double dividend they can both reduce excessive levels of pollution and increase the efficiency of the overall tax system at least so several economists have argued recently 17 20 but is this really so with the growing recognition of the enormous revenue potential of certain environmental taxes especially carbon taxes to address the problem of global warming public economists have returned to this question with a new round of research efforts directed both to understanding the properties of pollution taxes as revenue sources and to estimating their revenue potential and the magnitude of their effects on the economy and the newly emerging literature is producing some quite astonishing and very troubling findings in this paper i want to review this work and explore its implications when viewed in relation to some other research it appears to suggest that most forms of regulatory activity at least those that increase the costs of the regulated activities may have hitherto unappreciated costs of a stunning magnitude what many of us would have taken to be second order side effects of environmental and other regulatory policies can be of a magnitude that compromises to a significant extent their welfare enhancing properties having reviewed this body of work i wish also to explore some issues in the political economy of green taxes it is helpful to begin by briefly putting the issue in historical perspective

the fundamental determinants of interest rate differentials in the erm the paper analyses the sources of persistent interest rate differentials vis a vis germany that have existed in belgium denmark france ireland italy and the netherlands in a target zone system like the erm interest rate differentials mainly reflect devaluation expectations which are measured here by raw 1 month euromarket interest rate differentials drift adjusted 1 month differentials and differentials in long term government bond yields the role of a large set of fundamental macroeconomic variables that may have affected these devaluation expectations is investigated within a vector autoregressive var setting by means of granger causality tests impulse response functions and variance decompositions we find no evidence that fundamentals are more relevant to drift adjusted devaluation risk than for unadjusted interest rate differentials a significant impact of inflation budget deficits and unemployment becomes evident for almost all erm participants

optimal portfolio choice and the collapse of a fixed exchange rate regime abstract a model is presented that accounts for empirical macroeconomic regularities accompanying exchange rate crises assuming the central bank can surprise the private sector about its monetary policy we solve for agents consumption and portfolio decisions and the economy s equilibrium prices and interest rates using an intertemporal asset pricing model prior to a collapse a peso problem will always exist and the central bank will lose reserves in excess of domestic credit creation at the time of the collapse the exchange rate may depreciate unexpectedly the dynamics of a country s return to fixed exchange rates are also analyzed

comment on m hoel emission taxes versus other environmental policies the choice of the appropriate instrument in environmental policy is not only a question of theoretical importance it is also of considerable political relevance while environmental taxes are sometimes used to control pollution quotas and direct controls dominate in practice if this observed bias is only due to the nature of policymaking and not supported by economic reasoning politicians are not well advised to use quotas and direct controls instead of environmental taxes hoel discusses popular arguments that are often used by politicians in favour of direct controls and concludes that the results are typically not clear cut in this comment i would like to focus on the employment effects of revenue raising and nonrevenue raising instruments politicians as well as special interest groups often claim that emission taxes increase the cost of production thereby harming employment clearly in the face of high rates of unemployment in many industrialized countries potentially negative employment effects of environmental regulation raise political resistance to green policy the ongoing debate has put

how robust is the uniform emissions pricing rule to social equity concerns abstract this paper examines pollution tax differentiation across industries in light of social equity concerns using theoretical and numerical general equilibrium analyses in an optimal tax framework we characterize the drivers for non uniform optimal taxes stemming from the interaction of household heterogeneity with social preferences quantitatively assessing the case of price based co2 emissions control in the u s economy we find that uniform emissions pricing is approximately optimal when social concerns are defined over inequity induced by the environmental tax the deviation from uniform emissions pricing however becomes non negligible when pollution tax rebates deviate much from optimal transfer schemes or when social concerns are defined over both policy induced impacts and inequity unrelated to environmental policy our results are robust to a number of model extensions including the stringency of the environmental target downstream vs upstream taxation pre existing distortionary taxes and parametric uncertainty in firms and households equilibrium tax responses

the economic and environmental impact of a carbon tax for scotland a computable general equilibrium analysis using a disaggregated energy economy environmental model we investigate the economic and environmental impact of a scottish specific carbon tax under three alternative assumptions about the use of the revenue raised by the tax revenues raised are not recycled within scotland revenues are used to increase general government expenditure or to reduce scottish income tax we find that by imposing a tax of 50 per tonne of co2 the 37 co2 reduction target is met with a very rapid adjustment in all three cases if the model incorporates forward looking behaviour however the adjustment is much slower if agents are myopic in addition the results of the model suggest that a carbon tax might simultaneously stimulate economic activity whilst reducing emissions and thus secure a double dividend but only for the case in which the revenue is recycled through income tax

effects of carbon taxes in an economy with prior tax distortions an intertemporal general equilibrium analysis abstract this paper analyzes the costs of carbon taxes in a model that recognizes interactions between this tax and pre existing taxes first we examine the extent to which costs of a u s carbon tax are reduced when its revenues finance cuts in income taxes such use of revenues significantly reduces but does not eliminate the overall policy costs the positive overall costs reflect the carbon tax s focus on intermediate inputs and its relatively narrow base in comparison with income taxes we also examine the sensitivity of the carbon tax s costs to the level of pre existing taxes for any given use of revenues welfare costs rise significantly with pre existing tax rates indicating that models disregarding pre existing taxes may substantially understate the costs of new environmental tax initiatives

balance of payments crises and devaluation the collapse of a fixed exchange rate is typically marked by a sudden balance of payments crisis in which speculators fleeing from the domestic currency acquire a large portion of the central bank s foreign exchange holdings faced with such an attack the central bank often withdraws temporarily from the foreign exchange market allowing the exchange rate to float freely before devaluing and returning to a fixed rate regime this paper links the timing of the initial speculative attack to the magnitude of the expected devaluation and to the length of the transitional period off loating an implication of the analysis is that there exist devaluations so sharp and transition periods so short that acrisis must occur the moment the market first learns that the current exchange parity will eventually be altered for sufficiently long transition periods the floating exchange rate overshoots its new peg before appreciating back toward it for shorter periods the rate depreciates monotonically to its new fixed level accordingly the central bank s return tothe foreign exchange market can occasion a capital outflow or a capital inflow this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

speculative currency attacks and balance of payments crises abstract this paper reviews the recent theoretical literature on collapsing exchange rate regimes using a combination of technique intuition and realworld observation we discuss the literature s main insights point out some unresolved questions and offer suggestions for future research the survey should be of interest to both specialists and non specialists in the field of international macroeconomics

optimal gasoline tax in developing oil producing countries the case of mexico this paper uses the methodology of parry and small 2005 to estimate the optimal gasoline tax for a less developed oil producing country the relevance of the estimation relies on the differences between less developed countries ldcs and industrial countries we argue that lawless roads general subsidies on gasoline poor mass transportation systems older vehicle fleets and unregulated city growth make the tax rates in ldcs differ substantially from the rates in the developed world we find that the optimal gasoline tax is 1 90 per gallon at 2011 prices and show that the estimate differences are in line with the factors hypothesized in contrast to the existing literature on industrial countries we show that the relative gasoline tax incidence may be progressive in mexico and more generally in ldcs

carbon pricing and energy efficiency improvement why to miss the interaction for developing economies an illustrative cge based application to the pakistan case abstract carbon energy taxes and energy efficiency improvement are studied well in the recent years for their potential adverse impacts on economy especially for lost production and international competitiveness and rebound effects however little attention has been paid to investigate them jointly which can not only prevent fall of energy services cost and thereby rebound effect but reduce the associated macroeconomic costs this study thus employs a 20 sector cge model to explore separately the impacts of carbon tax and its coordinated implementation with energy efficiency improvement on the pakistan economy the country underwent enormous pressure of energy security issues as well as climate change fallouts in the last couple of years and can be regarded as a suitable candidate for energy environmental conservation policies to be considered at a broader context with more concrete efforts the simulation results show that the impact of carbon tax on gdp is negative but resulting reductions in pollutant emissions are relatively high moreover the gdp is expected to grow comparatively positive when analyzed with improvements in energy efficiency with even higher decline in energy consumption demand and so emissions this simultaneous economic and environmental improvement would thus have positive implications regarding sustainable development of the country

will export rebate policy be effective for co2 emissions reduction in china a ceepa based analysis china has adopted cancellation of export tax rebate policies on many occasions to push ahead energy conservation and emission reduction since 2007 by applying a ceepa china energy environmental policy analysis system model this paper simulates the impacts of the cancellation of export rebates on co2 emissions and socio economic consequences in different scenarios so as to figure out whether it works this paper covers three export rebate scenarios and makes comparisons between the impacts of export rebates on emission reduction effects and that of carbon tax policies the conclusions are 1 the current policy which cancels export rebates for key sectors can cut emissions at huge economic cost yet it is unsustainable 2 the policy which cancels export rebates for key sectors and meanwhile subsidizes sectoral outputs yields double dividends in the short term thus can facilitate emission reduction yet the boost is limited 3 the policy which cancels export rebates and boosts domestic demand helps improving residents welfare in the short term while it may inflict pronounced social and economic impacts in the long run so policy of this kind should be adopted with great caution 4 export rebates generate far more economic costs than carbon tax policies in the long term and don t contribute to optimizing the energy mix as well as the latter in summary canceling export rebates should not be regarded as a priority to encourage emission reduction

the producer welfare effects of trade liberalization when goods are perishable and habit forming the case of asparagus asparagus is a perishable highly seasonal crop we find that out of season imports of asparagus caused habit formation that increased demand in the u s growing seasons we find that habit effects offset about 64 of the welfare losses to u s asparagus producers from increased mexican imports under nafta and all of the u s producer welfare losses from increased peruvian imports under the andean trade preference act we estimate that the u s producer welfare losses from nafta are less than the annualized value of market loss assistance provided them in the 2008 farm bill jel classifications d12 f130 q17 q18

environmental policy and double dividend in a transitional economy abstract although the environmental benefit from implementing a climate tax is usually realized the economic dividend still remains a controversial issue warranting further research this is because the impact of an environmental policy on an economy wide system will depend on factors that differ from one region to the next in this paper we develop a static cge model for liberia that is capable of analyzing both a uniform and a partial carbon tax policy under the uniform policy instituted to ensure mitigation in the range of 20 50 an economic dividend is found for energy employment and welfare in particular energy consumption increases by between 5 and 15 5 respectively interestingly under a second best policy which exempts economically strategic sectors from the tax no economic dividend is found for all three variables this time energy use declines by between 2 and 9 these suggest that a uniform environmental tax policy is a more viable option for liberia in particular as it does not only generate economic dividend for employment and welfare it also incentivizes liberia s adoption and use of renewable energy technologies in general based on the results obtained further conditions for the feasibility of a double dividend are proposed

balance of payments crises in an optimal portfolio model abstract balance of payments crises are often associated with large current account movements preceding and following the crises in this paper we treat the issue of balance of payments crises in a general equilibrium model to allow for such current account movements at the same time we model the portfolio decisions of the individuals in an explicit risk and return framework the resulting behavior for money demand foreign exchange reserves and current account is derived most importantly the risk and return framework allows for a discussion of the influence of uncertain government domestic credit policies on the current account behavior preceding the attack and on the probability of an attack

a new approach to business fluctuations heterogeneous interacting agents scaling laws and financial fragility abstract in this paper we discuss a scaling approach to business fluctuations our starting point consists in recognizing that concepts and methods derived from physics have allowed economists to re discover a set of stylized facts which have to be satisfactorily accounted for in their models standard macroeconomics based on a reductionist approach centered on the representative agent is definitely badly equipped for this task on the contrary we show that a simple financial fragility agent based model based on complex interactions of heterogeneous agents is able to replicate a large number of scaling type stylized facts with a remarkable high degree of statistical precision

carbon taxation in russia prospects for a double dividend and improved energy efficiency russia is not only one of the world s major sources of carbon based energy coal oil and gas but is also one the most intensive users of energy furthermore russia accounts for a disproportionately large share of global carbon dioxide emissions some 5 to 6 of global carbon dioxide emissions eia 2011a it has been estimated world bank 2008 that russia could reduce its use of primary energy use by 45 with consequent economic and environmental benefits high energy and carbon intensity of the russia economy is inter alia explained by low energy prices due to high export taxes as well as administrative regulation of domestic prices of gas and electricity and low environmental taxes carbon taxes are one such pigouvian tax and they would address concerns on several fronts simultaneously in the short to medium term they would inter alia lead to lower ghg emissions and encourage the diffusion of more energy efficient technologies in the longer term the increased cost of energy inputs is expected to induce technological progress in this analysis the macroeconomic and sectoral effects of carbon taxes on the russia economy are examined this analysis addresses the following objectives i to test the double dividend hypothesis under perfect and imperfect competition in output markets to analyse ii the incidence of carbon taxes iii impacts on sectoral competitiveness iv effects on income equity and v interactions of carbon taxes with other taxes a computable single country multi sector comparative static cge model is employed russland verfugt nicht nur uber einen der grosten vorrate an kohlenstoffbasierter energie wie kohle rohol und gas sondern ist auch einer der grosten energieverbraucher daruber hinaus ist russland fur einen uberproportional grosen anteil von kohlendioxid emission etwa 5 bis 6 der weltweiten kohlendioxidemission verantwortlich mit der einfuhrung einer kohlendioxidsteuer konnten gleichzeitig unterschiedliche wirkungen erzielt werden kurz und mittelfristig wurden kohlenstoffsteuern sowohl zu einer reduzierung von treibhausgasemissionen als auch zur einfuhrung von energieeffizienteren technologien fuhren langfristig wird erwartet dass hohe energiekosten den anreiz zur entwicklung und zur investition in energiesparenden technischen fortschritt erhohen die vorliegende arbeit analysiert und bewertet die makrookonomischen und sektoralen auswirkungen einer einfuhrung von kohlenstoffsteuern auf die russische wirtschaft die ziele der arbeit bestehen darin die hypothese der doppelten dividende fur den fall des vollkommenen und des unvollkommenen wettbewerbs auf gutermarkten zu uberprufen und die inzidenz einer kohlenstoffsteuer ihre auswirkungen auf die sektorale wettbewerbsfahigkeit ihre auswirkungen auf die einkommensverteilung und die interaktion von kohlenstoffsteuern mit anderen steuern zu analysieren und zu bewerten als methodischer ansatz wurde ein single country und multi sektor model gewahlt

economic and welfare influences of an energy excise tax in jiangsu province of china a computable general equilibrium approach abstract in recent years although china s energy intensity has gradually decreased the total consumption of energy commodities has increased sharply levying an excise tax on energy commodities is one of the keys to control energy consumption this paper constructed a computable general equilibrium model to simulate levying an energy excise tax in jiangsu province which is one of china s strong economic provinces with lower endowments of energy resources the results show that the energy excise tax is beneficial for energy saving while levying energy will cause economic and welfare declines when at a level tax rate of 5 10 and 15 the loss of gdp will reach 0 27 0 66 and 1 13 respectively and the incomes of inhabitants and enterprises alike will decrease when the energy tax revenue used to compensate for the welfare losses suffered by inhabitants or enterprises there is a double dividend effect energy saving and increasing income moreover the simulation indicated that a 5 improvement of energy efficiency brings about a backfire phenomenon with an increase of 142 in energy consumption however when considering the cost of energy efficiency improvements the rebound effect will be significantly decreased policy suggestions are further recommended to help improve the energy policy in regard to reducing energy consumption

pollution taxes and revenue recycling abstract discussions of environmental policy and the tax system have emphasized the value of pollution tax revenues which can be used to reduce other tax distortions in the economy however by raising private marginal production costs environmental taxes also tend to reduce gdp and exacerbate the welfare costs of conventional taxes for environmental taxes in consumption goods industries the net welfare change from these two effects is negative unless this good is a relatively weak substitute for leisure an estimate for the optimal pollution tax with full revenue recycling is 63 to 78 of marginal environmental damages

economics and environmental implications of fuel efficiency improvement in malaysia a computable general equilibrium approach the continued increase in urbanization and vehicle ownership poses an increasing challenge in curbing the rising energy consumption and co2 emissions in malaysia for more than a decade road vehicles have been the leading contributor in the country due mainly to their heavy reliance on petroleum products particularly gasoline and diesel the efficient utilization of petroleum products becomes paramount in reducing malaysia s overall co2 emissions in the land transportation sector the timely abolition of petroleum product subsidies in 2014 may provide a financial source to support the improvement of petroleum product efficiency the primary purpose of this paper is to examine the impact on economic growth and sectoral performance with fuel subsidy savings being reallocated to the biofuel industry for research and development purposes the study then investigates whether an environmental tax on petroleum products could induce more energy saving and emission control this research applies the computable general equilibrium modeling for the simulation as it takes into account the interaction between petroleum products and the economy as a whole the malaysia input output tables 2010 is the main database used in the simulation the simulation results found that fuel efficiency improvement could produce a double dividend effect with simultaneous benefits on the economy and environmental quality a simultaneous implementation with fuel tax policy appears to be one suitable complementary measure for a further emission cut however sufficient compensation schemes might be necessary to stimulate economic activities over time based on the simulation results policymakers should emphasize fuel efficiency improvement as a crucial strategy to control the rising energy consumption and emissions in malaysia

collective decision making and heterogeneity in tastes this article begins by proposing a random taste parameterization of a quadratic extension of the piglog demand system at the household level which is consistent with exact aggregation this variation in tastes is a random function of household characteristics the econometric implication is that a well defined heteroscedastic error enters the demand system this heteroscedasticity can be handled by a gmm technique using a large canadian cross sectional household data set and the quadratic almost ideal demand system homoscedasticity is rejected however when heteroscedasticity is allowed for there are no longer inconsistencies between the theoretical and empirical evidence particularly with respect to the collective decision making properties of homogeneity sr1 symmetry and distribution factor proportionality and linearity

energy taxation and the double dividend effect in taiwan s energy conservation policy an empirical study using a computable general equilibrium model abstract faced with pressure from greenhouse gas reductions and energy price hikes the taiwan government is in the process of developing an energy tax regime to reflect environmental external costs and effectively curb energy consumption as well as mitigate co2 emissions through an adequate pricing system this study utilizes a cge model to simulate and analyze the economic impacts of the draft energy tax bill and its complementary fiscal measures under the assumption of tax revenue neutrality the use of energy tax revenue generated for the purpose of reducing income tax is the best choice with double dividend effects since it will effectively stimulate domestic consumption and investment and consequently mitigate the negative impacts of the distortionary tax regime the double dividend effect is less significant however when the supplementary measures being used are for government expenditure nevertheless all supplementary measures have effectively reduced energy consumption which means they have delivered at least the first dividend in the sense of co2 emissions control it has been verified in this study that having adequate public finance policy measures is the key to realizing the double dividend effect

optimal government finance policy and exchange rate management in a stochastically growing open economy abstract optimal monetary policy is analyzed in a stochastic small open economy consisting of risk averse representative agents the analysis shows how optimal monetary policy should be directed toward an optimal interest rate target this target which maximizes the intertemporal utility of the representative agent is determined by balancing off the marginal gains of a higher interest rate on increased growth and the future consumption it generates against the marginal losses stemming from a reduction in the holdings of real money balances the paper shows how an appropriately set monetary growth rate eliminates the need for continuous intervention in the exchange market

the two index pigl demand system abstract the extended pigl demand system is shown to be the only solution to a two index income aggregation problem where at least one index is the sample mean of income and aggregate quantities are aggregate demands

the microfoundations project in general equilibrium theory the author 1 argues that the long lived microfoundations project based on general equilibrium models has come to an end and 2 shows that non walrasian models intended to provide microfoundations for macroeconomics are inadequate the arguments are derived from the sonnenschein mantel debreu smd demonstration of the arbitrariness of aggregate excess demands in general equilibrium models of the walrasian arrow debreu mckenzie type the issues raised have significance for the proper method of modeling macroeconomic phenomena for instance the smd results have led a growing number of general equilibrium theorists to make assumptions concerning macroeconomic structure in order to analyze other regularities at the macro level these points validate the position that systematic macroeconomic phenomena are intrinsically macroeconomic copyright 1994 by oxford university press

optimal control of externalities in the presence of income taxation optimal control of externalities a substantial literature examines second best environmental policy focusing particularly on how the pigouvian directive that marginal taxes should equal marginal external harms needs to be modified in light of the preexisting distortion due to labor income taxation additional literature is motivated by the possibility that distributive concerns should amend the internalization prescription it is demonstrated however that simple first best rules unmodified for labor supply distortion or distribution are correct in a natural basic formulation of the problem specifically setting all commodity taxes equal to marginal harms and subsidies equal to marginal benefits can generate a pareto improvement likewise a marginal reform in the direction of the first best can yield a pareto improvement for other reforms a simple efficiency test characterizing when a pareto improvement is possible is offered qualifications and explanations for the substantial departure from results in previous work are also elaborated

when can carbon abatement policies increase welfare the fundamental role of distorted factor markets abstract this paper employs analytical and numerical models to assess the welfare effects of a revenue neutral carbon tax and nonauctioned carbon emissions permits taking into account preexisting tax distortions in factor markets the presence of preexisting taxes significantly raises the general equilibrium costs of both policies this cost increase is much greater under emissions permits since this policy does not generate revenues to reduce distortionary taxes under our central estimates emissions permits cannot increase welfare unless environmental damages exceed about 18 per ton of carbon in contrast an appropriately scaled carbon tax is welfare improving so long as environmental damages are positive

optimal dynamic carbon taxes in a climate economy model with distortionary fiscal policy how should carbon be taxed as a part of fiscal policy the literature on optimal carbon pricing often abstracts from other taxes however when governments raise revenues with distortionary taxes carbon levies have fiscal impacts while they raise revenues directly they may shrink the bases of other taxes e g by decreasing employment this article theoretically characterizes and then quantifies optimal carbon taxes in a dynamic general equilibrium climate economy model with distortionary fiscal policy first this article establishes a novel theoretical relationship between the optimal taxation of carbon and of capital income this link arises because carbon emissions destroy natural capital they accumulate in the atmosphere and decrease future output consequently this article shows how the standard logic against capital income taxes extends to distortions on environmental capital investments second this article characterizes optimal climate policy in sub optimal fiscal settings where income taxes are constrained to remain at their observed levels third this article presents a detailed calibration that builds on the seminal dice approach but adds features essential for a setting with distortionary taxes such as a differentiation between climate change production impacts e g on agriculture and direct utility impacts e g on biodiversity existence value the central quantitative finding is that optimal carbon tax schedules are 8 24 lower when there are distortionary taxes compared to the setting with lump sum taxes considered in the literature

collapsing exchange rate regimes abstract the paper develops models of speculative runs and collapse of fixed exchange rate regimes which result from credit policies that are ultimately inconsistent with a fixed exchange rate while no substantially new results are offered the formulation itself is of interest in highlighting the important ideas that have emerged in this area we modify the flood garber model to make the analysis more comparable with the deterministic case specifically we assume that the money growth process is specified in terms of growth rates rather than absolute increments and as a uniform rather than exponential distribution the modified analysis lends itself to a simple geometric interpretation of the krugman and flood garber models highlighting the important difference between the deterministic and stochastic models in the former the speculative attack run is concentrated in the latter the transition to floating is diffuse reserve losses exceed increases in domestic credit because of a rising probability of transition and reserve depletion accelerates on the way to the regime change

the efficiency value of effluent tax revenues the concept of the efficiency value of effluent tax revenues is developed it is defined as the reduction in excess burden resulting from the substitution of these revenues for current or future resource distorting tax revenues such as those raised from federal corporate and personal income taxes the annual efficiency value of revenues raised by national effluent taxes on two major air pollutants is estimated to range from 0 63 to 3 05 billion if substituted for federal personal income tax revenue and from 1 to 4 87 billion if substituted for corporate income tax revenue expressed in 1982 dollars thus previous estimates of the efficiency gain from substitution of an effluent tax scheme for current pollution regulation policy have been too low because the efficiency value of the tax revenues has been excluded

energy taxes in the netherlands what are the dividends in this paper the environmental and economic effects of the introduction of a unilateral energy tax in the netherlands are analysed using an applied general equilibrium age model the effects of a small user energy tax and a general energy tax are compared while taking into account different tax recycling mechanisms the model contains a great level of detail with respect to emissions and environmental indicators greenhouse effect acidification eutrophication and waste which is helpful for assessing environmental quality the results show that the introduction of a small environmental tax reform not only improves the environment but also raises non environmental welfare which is due to an improvement of the efficiency of the tax structure

financial policy and speculative runs with a crawling peg argentina 1979 1981 abstract in this paper we present a model of a balance of payments crisis and examine the argentine experiment with a crawling peg between december 1978 and february 1981 the approach taken allows us to examine the evolution of a crisis when a collapse is not perfectly foreseen and yields plausible estimates of one month ahead probabilities of a collapse of the crawling peg the results suggest that the viability of an exchange rate regime depends on the consistency of exchange rate policy with domestic credit policy if the two are not consistent confidence in exchange rate policy is undermined

collapsing exchange rate regimes some linear examples abstract we construct a pair of linear examples to study the collapse time of a fixed exchange rate regime the first example is a perfect foresight continuous time model which allows calculation of the exact collapse time and the tracking of reserves the second example is a discrete time stochastic model which yields an endogenous probability distribution over the collapse time and produces a forward discount of the exchange rate

capital controls and foreign exchange market crises in the ems abstract it is widely held that capital controls are necessary to prevent foreign exchange market crises in a fixed but adjustable exchange rate system like the ems it was therefore argued that capital market liberalization which came in july 1990 might lead to recurrent crises in the ems events since july 1990 have shown that capital controls were not necessary for the stability of the ems this paper shows that even with capital controls the system might enter turbulent periods and might experience a self fulfilling balance of payments crisis if the authorities are perceived to dislike high domestic interest rates a crisis can then be triggered by any small shock if the authorities are not willing to raise domestic interest rates sufficiently to defend the exchange rate

heterogeneity biases distributional effects and aggregate consumption an empirical analysis using stratified microdata using stratified microdata from the canadian famex 78 86 surveys this paper investigates whether observed heterogeneity in marginal propensities to consume across strata actually hinders the aggregation process despite significant heterogeneity in marginal responses the divergences between aggregate predicted consumption and the predictions from a model that uses average strata responses are found to be small whenever the strata demands are approximatively linear at the mean and the commodity group considered is not a luxury good on the other hand some cross sectional estimates obtained by pooling the strata are shown to be contaminated by unwanted cross moments further the analysis reconciles the fact that while there exists significant heterogeneity in consumer demands the related distributional effects in the aggregate equation have not been found to be important

currency preferences purchasing power risks and the determination of exchange rates in an optimizing model most recent research on the theory of exchange rate determination treats the exchange rate as the relative price of two assets domestic money and foreign money the value of an asset depends on the distribution of its return however most of the research has dealt with models in which there is no uncertainty the present paper focuses on questions that cannot be addressed in a world of certainty because in such a world an asset is never risky it investigates how purchasing power risks affect the determination of exchange rates this investigation is pursued in a fairly general optimizing model the present research is related to some recent work in international economics and in financial economics it follows the approach of obstfeld 1981 and stockman 1980 in that it uses an optimizing model and takes into account the role of government transfers in the flow budget constraint of individuals as in calvo and rodriguez 1977 stockman 1980 and others the fact that holdings of foreign monies are useful to domestic individuals is taken into account finally the paper uses techniques developed in papers in the finance literature which build on merton s 1973 asset pricing model and use a concept of equilibrium developed in

reevaluating the first and the second dividends of environmental tax reforms abstract there is increasing global interest in market based climate change policies following the last elections in the united states in this context an exxon mobil chief executive came out in favour of a carbon tax this paper is concerned with the welfare analysis of environmental tax reforms etr and takes up the claims for the need of an unambiguous and operative definition of the double dividend both for empirical purposes and political advisement in this paper we contest the usual definition of the second dividend and its assimilation to an efficiency dividend we propose alternative definitions by suggesting a different splitting of the total welfare variation between the first and the second dividend in order to isolate the efficiency effects of the etr the new definitions become clearly understandable and easy for economic and policy interpretation concepts like weak and strong double dividend turn out to be unnecessary finally we analyze etr for the us economy to illustrate the advantages of the proposed definitions for policy implementation