black market exchange rate and the productivity bias hypothesis abstract previous studies that tested the productivity bias hypothesis employed the official nominal exchange rate in constructing the real rate hence in testing the productivity bias hypothesis in this paper we show that if official real exchange rate does not support the productivity bias hypothesis the real black market rate does this conjecture is tested by using data from chile colombia and costa rica

how to beat the random walk an empirical model of real exchange rates abstract an econometric model is developed for all possible bilateral real exchange rates between the united states the united kingdom germany and japan for the period february 1977 to june 1987 we extend the standard dornbusch frankel type of models using an error correction approach with an observable macro economic determinant of the long run real exchange rate for the econometric analysis we develop an efficient estimator by pooling the data for all currencies contrary to previous empirical tests on the long run behaviour of real exchange rates we find a notable and significant mean reversion component

instability in short run adjustments to purchasing power parity results for selected latin american countries according to the theory of purchasing power parity ppp there is a tendency toward equalization of different countries price levels in common currency terms however even assuming that a long run ppp relationship exists its relevance for policy makers in less developed countries ldcs will depend not only on the average speed of adjustment toward this relationship but also on the variability of such short run adjustments we present evidence of extreme volatility in adjustments toward ppp for four latin american countries based on time varying parameter estimates of error correction models

operating flexibility global manufacturing and the option value of a multinational network the multinational corporation is a network of activities located in different countries the value of this network derives from the opportunity to benefit from uncertainty through the coordination of subsidiaries which are geographically dispersed we model this coordination as the operating flexibility to shift production between two manufacturing plants located in different countries a stochastic dynamic programming model treats explicitly this flexibility as equivalent to owning an option the value of which is dependent upon the real exchange rate the model is extended to analyze hysteresis effects and within country growth options we show that the management of across border coordination has led to changes in the heuristic rules used for performance evaluation and transfer pricing

mean reversion in real exchange rates evidence and implications for forecasting abstract the stationarity of real exchange rates over the recent flexible exchange rate period is an issue that has long bedeviled researchers in international finance using a constrained multivariate framework this paper provides the strongest evidence yet that real exchange rates were mean reverting over the 1973 93 period we also investigate shifts in long run real exchange rates which may be important for the purpose of forecasting out of sample forecasting shows that the random walk model is outperformed by a mean stationary model especially at long horizons in addition there are substantial forecasting benefits from using a multivariate approach

operational hedging strategies and competitive exposure to exchange rates this paper investigates the impact of operational flexibility on firms economic exposure to currency fluctuations in the presence of global competition we consider a global firm who sells as a monopolist in the domestic market and also sells to a foreign market facing competition from a local competitor of certain capacity we compare the effects of two operational strategies of the global firm namely matching currency footprints natural hedge and the capacity pooling strategy with allocation flexibility for a two stage stochastic model we derive the optimal capacity and selling decisions for the global firm and from the comparative statics analysis of our model we infer useful managerial insights 1 we find that operational flexibility enables the global firm to exploit the possible high exchange rate i e devalued home currency realizations for profit improvement and thus increases in the long run the firm s expected profit 2 furthermore operational flexibility allows for downside risk control as the exchange rate becomes more volatile since the resource pooling option cleverly exercised minimizes the impact of unfavorable currency realizations 3 the global firm s operational flexibility increases its competitor s downside risk but may also benefit the competitor s expected profit since a flexible global firm may decide not to compete when the exchange rate is not favorable in conclusion our paper substantiates that natural hedge is not effective from a profit maximization perspective we clearly illustrate the robust profit maximizing performance and reasonable downside risk control of operational hedging approaches which rely on the clever exercising of operational flexibility options such as resource pooling and allocation in handling competitive exposure to fluctuating exchange rates

answering the skeptics yes standard volatility models do provide accurate forecasts a voluminous literature has emerged for modeling the temporal dependencies in financial market volatility using arch and stochastic volatility models while most of these studies have documented highly significant in sample parameter estimates and pronounced intertemporal volatility persistence traditional ex post forecast evaluation criteria suggest that the models provide seemingly poor volatility forecasts contrary to this contention we show that volatility models produce strikingly accurate interdaily forecasts for the latent volatility factor that would be of interest in most financial applications new methods for improved ex post interdaily volatility measurements based on high frequency intradaily data are also discussed

determinants of the equilibrium real exchange rate n b professor neary was based at university college dublin and queen s university ontario canada when this article was first published the full text of this article is not available in ora at this time citation neary j p 1988 determinants of the equilibrium real exchange rate american economic review 78 1 210 215

exports foreign market structure and profitability in japanese and u s manufacturing this paper examines the influence of price d ecisions by foreign firms on export price decisions by domestic firms the theor etical analysis develops a general model which hypothesizes a positive relation between export price and foreign price assuming international product differenti ation this model further suggests that export price depends on foreign structur al traits as they determine foreign price the empirical analysis based on a cr oss section of sixty nine four digit manufacturing industries matched between th e united states and japan provided support for the hypothesis that foreign mark et structure and foreign pricing affect export pricing and thus the observed pri ce cost margin copyright 1986 by mit press

deviations from purchasing power parity in the long run this paper demonstrates that deviations from purchasing power parity reveal a remarkable and possibly startling consistency with martingale behavior during both fixed and flexible rate periods for a wide variety of countries and in both monthly and annual data since this pattern appears to be much more general than one would expect on the basis of models founded on international commodity arbitrage the paper proposes an alternative explanation which instead relies on financial arbitrage in bonds as the underlying mechanism this paper will demonstrate that deviations from purchasing power parity ppp reveal a remarkable and possibly startling consistency with martingale behavior during both fixed and flexible exchange rate periods for a wide variety of countries and in both monthly and annual data this pattern appears to be much more general than one would expect on the basis of models founded on international commodity arbitrage the paper therefore proposes an alternative explanation which does not presuppose free trade in goods but which instead relies on financial arbitrage in bonds as the underlying mechanism the major implication of the theory and the results is that ppp is as likely to be violated in the long as in the short run as an empirical matter deviations from ppp can be observed for most currencies at any instant see kravis et al 21 stockman 37 and genberg 15 among others these deviations are typically both cumulative and persistent the real exchange rate can remain on either side of parity for lengthy but variable time intervals of a year or more as a consequence the current consensus shared

relative price determination in the medium run the influence of wages productivity and international prices this work explores three critical assumptions of the balassa samuelson productivity differential model for the short and medium run wage equalization competitive labor markets and purchasing power parity the data reveal violations in these assumptions for france germany japan the u k and the u s significant wage and unit labor cost differentials exist across industries and traded and nontraded sectors and these differentials do not diminish over time the findings are consistent with the presence of industry and or sectoral specific human capital

limit order submission strategies under asymmetric information abstract this paper provides evidence that informed traders dominate the response of limit order submissions to shocks in a pure limit order market in the market we study informed traders are highly sensitive to spreads volatility momentum and depth by contrast uninformed traders are relatively insensitive to all these market conditions the dominance of the informed over limit order submissions is magnified by contrasts between them and the uninformed in the use of aggressively priced limit orders

exchange rates and foreign direct investment an imperfect capital markets approach we examine the connection between exchange rates and foreign direct investment that arises when globally integrated capital markets are subject to informational imperfections these imperfections cause external financing to be more expensive than internal financing so that changes in wealth translate into changes in the demand for direct investment by systematically lowering the relative wealth of domestic agents a depreciation of the domestic currency can lead to foreign acquisitions of certain domestic assets we develop a simple model of this phenomenon and test for its relevance in determining international capital flows

limit order book as a market for liquidity we develop a dynamic model of an order driven market populated by discretionary liquidity traders these traders must trade yet can choose the type of order and are fully strategic in their decision traders differ by their impatience less patient traders demand liquidity more patient traders provide it three equilibrium patterns are obtained the pattern is determined by three parameters the degree of impatience of the patient traders which we model as the cost of execution delay in providing liquidity their proportion in the population which determines the degree of competition among the liquidity providers and the tick size which is the cost of the minimal price improvement despite its simplicity the model generates a rich set of empirical predictions on the relation between market parameters time to execution and spreads we argue that the economic intuition of this model is so basic its main results must be robust in much more general models

transaction costs order placement strategy and existence of the bid ask spread by considering investor order placement strategy this paper demonstrates that transaction costs cause bid ask spreads to be an equilibrium property of asset markets with transaction costs the probability of a limit order executing does not go to unity as the order is placed infinitesimally close to a counterpart market quote thus with certainty of execution at the counterpart market quote a gravitational pull is generated that keeps counterpart quotes from being placed infinitesimally close to each other an equilibrium spread is defined and its size linked to market thinness implications are noted for the design of a trading system

estimating the gains from trade in limit order markets we present a method to estimate the gains from trade in limit order markets and provide empirical evidence that the limit order market is a good market design using observations on order submissions and execution and cancellation histories we estimate both the distribution of traders unobserved valuations for the stock and latent trader arrival rates we use the resulting estimates to compute the current gains from trade the gains from trade in a perfectly liquid market and the gains from trade with a monopoly liquidity supplier the current gains are 90 of the maximum gains and 150 of the monopolist gains the majority of the world s stock exchanges operate some form of a limit order market a feature of good market design is that traders realize most of the potential gains from trade we develop a method for identifying and estimating the gains from trade in a limit order market and apply our method to a sample from a particular limit order market the vancouver stock exchange vse we find that gains from trade in the vse are approximately 90 of the gains from trade in a perfectly liquid market and approximately 50 more than gains from trade in a market in which liquidity is supplied by a profit maximizing monopolist our results therefore provide new empirical evidence that the limitorder market is a good market design a large number of experimental studies document that the gains from trade in a double auction are close to the maximum gains from trade see for example cason and friedman 1996 or the survey by holt 1995 similarly our empirical results show that the limit order market a market design similar to

excess volatility of real exchange rates in the ems some evidence from structural vars this paper argues that the effectiveness of the exchange rate mechanism erm of the european monetary system ems should be gauged by its impact on the monetary component of real exchange rate variability nominal and real shocks are separated using a bivariate structural var applied to real exchange rate data of the six original member countries participating in the erm and a control group consisting of britain and the united states the findings suggest that monetary shocks have been an important source of real exchange rate variability and that the erm has been successful in reducing the incidence of monetary shocks across its member countries prior to the ems currency crises of 1992 93 while being less successful thereafter

insignificant and inconsequential hysteresis the case of the u s bilateral trade this paper casts doubt on the validity of the hysteresis hypothesis as an explanation of the persistent u s trade deficits in the 1980s the authors propose two tests to investigate two different implications of the hypothesis the first implication is that cumulative changes in exchange rates in addition to current exchange rate levels are important determinants of trade flows the second implication is that foreign exporting firms perceptions of exchange rate volatility will affect their decisions to enter or exit the market the authors find little support for either aspect of the hysteresis hypothesis copyright 1993 by mit press

one minute in the life of the dm us public news in an electronic market abstract public news can be expected to change market prices but unlike public information there are differing expectations about the impact hence trading is necessary for the market to process these divergent views a surprise announcement of an increase in german interest rates coupled with concurrent transactions data enables us to study in detail dealers reactions the patterns observed are consistent with dealers practice to book targeted profits immediately if possible in the face of uncertainty evidence also shows that the speculative activity by traders in initial reaction to the news destabilized the market for the next 2 h

a reexamination of balassa s productivity bias hypothesis rency by ri s the price level in country i by pi and the price level in the united states by pu s the ppp theory postulates that ri u s pi pu s many studies have tried to verify whether exchange rates follow the path outlined by the ppp equation the empirical results at best are inconclusive for example j a frenkel tested the ppp by drawing data from the 1970s and showed that the ppp failed on the other hand n davutyan and j pippenger criticized frenkel s work and reversed his conclusion 2 both studies used ordinary least squares and two stage least squares methods even recent studies that have used a relatively modern econometric technique cointegration analysis have mostly rejected the ppp 3 several reasons have been given in the literature for the failure of the ppp or deviation of the ppp based exchange rates from equilibrium exchange rates including lack of free trade existence of transaction costs existence of nontradables simultaneity problems different weights used in constructing different national price indexes money and asset prices and real factors or real variables among the real variables the productivity differential between two countries has received most of the attention in the literature if we denote the market determined equilibrium exchange rate by re and the ppp based rate by pi pu s following the literature we

the response of exchange rates to permanent and transitory shocks under floating exchange rates abstract using the joint behavior of inflation and real exchange rates we develop an empirical model to uncover the sources of the fluctuations in the real dollar exchange rates of four major industrial countries under the current float this model allows us to construct two time series for each country pair one representing the permanent component of each real exchange rate and the other the purely transitory component over the period as a whole transitory shocks played a relatively small but statistically significant role real dollar exchange rates therefore did not simply evolve in response to permanent shocks instead there are instances in which temporary shocks made a substantial contribution we conclude that the random walk model though an approximate statistical description of real exchange rate behavior is a poor guide to model structure jel f31

the response of real exchange rates to various economic shocks substantial fluctuations in real exchange rates i e deviations from purchasing power parity ppp which closely mirror movements in nominal rates have been one of the most notable international economic events since the breakdown of the bretton woods system dornbusch s disequilibrium theory 9 which presumes different speeds of adjustment in assets and goods markets offers an explanation for temporary deviations from ppp only models assuming ppp as a long run relationship have not been successful in interpreting the movements of the real exchange rates although studies conducted for countries experiencing high or hyper inflation provide evidence favoring ppp 42 30 29 the empirical evidence on ppp for industrialized low inflation countries is not generally favorable 1 this is consistent with the view that ppp may hold better in high inflation countries where the disturbances to their economies are mostly monetary in origin 31 123 24 but ppp may not hold well when the real disturbances which change equilibrium relative prices dominate statistical evidence indicates that the real exchange rates of many countries are likely to be nonstationary or have long memory that is changes in the real values of many currencies tend to persist for very long period of time this persistence implies that fluctuations in the real exchange rates are largely due to long lasting effect of real disturbances after revealing that ppp does not hold as a long run concept for several exchange rates flynn and boucher 12 121 suggest that one possible explanation is that there are time varying real factors that are omitted from the ppp relationship there are several well established reasons why the real exchange rates may change in response to real disturbances in the first place permanent exogenous shocks to the tradable sector of the economy call for changes in competitiveness for instance a rise in the real price of oil will worsen the balance of trade position of a net oil importing country and therefore call for a real depreciation of the currency of the country in order to improve its competitive position 32 second when countries are growing at different rates productivity bias will typically result in

the impact of immigration on the human capital of natives implications of the quantity number and quality skill of immigration on the destination economy are analyzed including impacts on value added wages quasi rents rates of return and the skill distribution of the native labor force quantity quality trade offs are considered for both immigrant and native workers medium and long run labor supply responses by natives to immigrant induced changes in wage rates are shown to have second order effects which substantively affect the impacts of immigrants the impact of immigration policy depends on the quality as well as quantity of immigrants the time horizon and the speed of factor market adjustment

purchasing power parity and unit root tests using panel data abstract this paper reports the results of unit root tests for real exchange rates using a panel framework this panel approach provides greatly improved power compared to conventional univariate time series unit root tests we obtain evidence supporting ppp over the recent flexible exchange rate period for g 6 and oecd countries we show explicitly that failure to find such evidence in previous research was due to the low power of the tests

platform investments and volatile exchange rates direct investment in the u s by japanese electronic companies this study examines the effects of previous entry on the subsequent decisions of japanese electronics companies to invest in the united states by gathering data at the firm level the empirical analysis provides a fine grain sorting out of firm and industry effects on foreign direct investment decisions the findings show that investment behavior is highly heterogeneous across firms and reflects their individual technological capabilities and their history of previous investments in the united states real exchange rate levels are also important the results suggest that initial investments serve as platforms for subsequent entry with the timing of entry triggered by movements in real exchange rates copyright 1996 by mit press

social security and migration with endogenous skill upgrading abstract the aim of the paper is to investigate the joint redistributive effects of migration and pensions and to reassess the sustainability issue raised in the existing economic literature the paper first develops a theoretical framework to analyse the impact of international migration on the labour market the model allows for heterogeneity across native born individuals and for migrants to affect both the wages and the education decision in the recipient country it then explicitly focuses on pensions under alternative migration scenarios the analysis shows that migration causes redistributive effects which increase across group wage inequality however the endogenous educational response by residents partially offsets the redistributive impact of migration while creating additional interest groups migration helps the financial sustainability of the pension scheme but the interaction between migration and pensions causes complex inter and intragenerational redistributive conflicts which are analysed in the paper

global production planning under exchange rate uncertainty motivated by an aggregate production planning problem in an actual global manufacturing network we examine the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on the choice of optimal production policies when the allocation decision can be deferred until the realization of exchange rates this leads to the formulation of the problem as a two stage recourse program whose optimal policy structure features two forms of flexibility denoted as operational hedging 1 production hedging where the firm deliberately produces less than the total demand and 2 allocation hedging where due to unfavorable exchange rates some markets are not served despite having unused production our characterization of the optimal policy structure leads to an economic valuation of production and allocation hedging we show that the prevalence of production hedging is moderated by the degree of correlation between exchange rates a comprehensive examination under the following four generalized settings provides the depth scope and relevancy that our proposed operational hedges play to facilitate aggregate planning 1 multiple periods 2 demand uncertainty 3 price setting or monopolistic pricing and 4 price setting under demand uncertainty we show that production and allocation hedging are robust for these generalizations and should be integrated into the overall aggregate planning strategy of a global manufacturing firm

international evidence on tradables and nontradables inflation abstract using 1970 1985 sectoral data for the oecd we find that inflation in nontradable goods exceeds inflation in tradables we identify a demand shift towards nontradables and faster growth of total factor productivity in the tradable goods sector as the prime causes of the differential inflation in addition disinflation attempts and the exchange rate regime appear to have exerted significant influence on the relative inflation rate

financing flexibility the case of outsourcing abstract we investigate the relationship between the extent and timing of vertical flexibility and the financial choices of a firm by vertical flexibility we mean partial total and reversible outsourcing of a necessary input a firm simultaneously selects the vertical setting and the financial sources of investment in flexibility in particular debt and venture capital a loan may come from a lender that requires the payment of a fixed coupon over time and an option to buy out the firm in certain circumstances debt leads to the same level of flexibility of an unlevered firm yet investment occurs earlier the injection of venture capital reduces the quest for vertical flexibility and speeds up investment then there arises a fresh substitutability between a financial venture capital and a real variable vertical flexibility

on the equilibrium yen dollar rate this paper presents a definition of the long run equilibrium exchange rate that emphasizes the role of supply factors in addition to the more traditional price differential variables using this definition we estimate the long run equilibrium yen dollar rate during the period of 1973 87 this calculation demonstrates that supply factors are in fact very important determinants of the long run movement of the exchange rate despite the central role the exchange rates play in the economy economists seem to doubt their own ability to explain let alone predict exchange rate movements the reason is that in many cases structural exchange rate equations do not significantly outperform various other models that do not appeal to economic theory such as the random walk see for example richard meese and kenneth rogoff 1983 while we also share this pessimism concerning our ability to forecast exchange rates in the short run intradaily to monthly or quarterly we argue that it is possible to reasonably explain if not predict long run movements the long run equilibrium rate is most often thought to be determined by purchasing power parity ppp which tends to focus only on price differentials medium run divergences of the exchange rate from the long run equilibrium are therefore commonly identified with fluctuations in the inflation adjusted real exchange rate this paper demonstrates however that the simple ppp is unsatisfactory because it emphasizes only the inflation differential in the more elaborated theory of purchasing power parity of course the potential importance of supply side real factors as critical determinants of the exchange rate has been well recognized see for example john m keynes 1923 rudiger dornbusch stanley fischer and paul a samuelson 1977 alan stockman 1980 nevertheless in empirical applications and policy discussions these supply side real factors have been curiously ignored to our knowledge an exception is david hsieh 1982 the main point of this paper is to show that these supply side factors actually have been very important determinants of the yen dollar rate over the period of 1973 to 1987

why real interest rates cost of capital and price earnings ratios vary across countries abstract this paper examines how productivity changes affect real rates of return and price earnings ratios in a small open economy the model provides conditions under which increased productivity in a country s traded goods sector causes prices of non traded goods to increase relative to the price of traded goods under these conditions real rates of interest decline and the production of certain non traded durable goods such as capital equipment and housing immediately increase this overconstruction has two effects first the increase in capital relative to labor in these sectors increases the marginal product of labor and hence immediately causes an increase in wages and the prices of non traded goods second an oversupply of capital goods and housing depresses their rental rates in the current period thereby increasing their price to rental ratios or equivalently their price earnings ratios

foreign direct investment exchange rate variability and demand uncertainty variable real exchange rates influence the location of production facilities chosen by a multinational with risk averse investors and fixed productive factors parent companies should not be indifferent to production location even with identical expected costs of production across countries if a nonnegative correlation exists between export demand and exchange rate shocks the multinational optimally locates some productive capacity abroad the capacity share abroad increases as exchange rate volatility rises and becomes more correlated with export demand shocks these results are confirmed using quarterly u s bilateral foreign direct investment flows with canada japan and the united kingdom copyright 1995 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

persistent trade effects of large exchange rate shocks this paper presents a theoretical basis for the argument that large exchange rate shocks such as the 1980s dollar cycle may have persistent effects on trade flows and the equilibrium exchange rate itself we begin with a partial equilibrium model in which large exchange rate fluctuations lead to entry or exit decisions that are not reversed when the currency returns to its previous level then we develop a simple model of the feedback from hysteresis in trade to the exchange rate itself here we see that a large capital inflow which leads to an initial appreciation can result in a persistent reduction in the exchange rate consistent with trade balance

new estimates of the equilibrium exchange rate the case for the chinese renminbi we estimate the nominal equilibrium exchange rate eer of the chinese renminbi rmb vis a vis the us dollar from 1995 to 2009 while most of the recent empirical studies on the eer employ a cross country analysis country specific factors especially supply side real factors are not fully taken into consideration in estimating the eer to better reflect china s processing exports in the context of growing intra regional trade in asia we incorporate in the empirical analysis the source country breakdown data on import prices and input coefficients of intermediate inputs by constructing an annual new international input output iio table for the period from 1995 to 2009 the results show that the nominal eer of the rmb appreciates sharply from 2006 to 2009 suggesting that the current rmb exchange rate has been substantially undervalued and should be revalued by 74 per cent as of 2008 compared to the year 2004 level such sharp appreciation of the nominal eer corresponds to the dramatic increase in china s current account surplus from the mid 2000s especially against the united states which is ascribed to the significant improvement of china s intermediate input coefficients and to a lesser extent an increase in us import prices of intermediate inputs

systematic movements in real exchange rates in the g 5 evidence on theintegration of internal and external markets abstract many recent studies have documented the random behavior of real exchange rates this paper shows that real exchange rates defined for different sectors of an economy move closely together with one another even though each of the sectoral real exchange rates taken alone has a large random component the sectoral real exchange rates are tied together by internal price links due to factor mobility within each national economy any differences between real exchange rates which develop moreover can be explained almost entirely by productivity differentials at least in the long run this paper contrasts the strong ties which bind together prices from different sectors internally with ties that bind the prices of goods from the same sector internationally prices are shown to be much more highly correlated internally than externally because flexible exchange rates disrupt normal pricing relationships between goods from different countries

a quantitative reassessment of the purchasing power parity hypothesis evidence from norway and the united kingdom summary annual data from norway and the united kingdom from 1874 to 1971 are used to reassess the empirical performance of the purchasing power parity ppp doctrine the simple version of the ppp relationship is supported by the data only if different short run dynamics during a floating rate period 1914 1928 is allowed for two sets of factors were found to be important in amending the simple ppp model these were short run cyclical variables affecting the adjustment towards the ppp equilibrium relationship and long run structural factors such as productivity and terms of trade within this expanded model the proportionality between the exchange rate and relative price levels could not be rejected

real and nominal exchange rates in the long run an empirical investigation abstract this paper reports on econometric tests of the hypothesis that purchasing power parity holds as a long run relationship using data on eight industrialized countries during the flexible exchange rate period the empirical work proceeds by i testing whether nominal exchange rates and relative price levels are co integrated and ii conducting impulse response analysis of long run exchange rate and relative price level changes to explain the data keynesian models suggest that shocks during the estimation period were due principally to exogenous shifts in aggregate demand while equilibrium models suggest that monetary factors have been relatively more important

the relative price of nontraded goods and sectoral total factor productivity an empirical investigation this paper examines the relationship between the relative price of nontraded goods and sectoral total factor productivities tfps in the context of the balassa samuelson model with perfect capita

a note on the determinants of unexpected exchange rate movements abstract in this paper we study the relative importance of surprises in fundamentals in explaining unexpected exchange rate movements employing a unique survey dataset that contains matched exchange rate and interest rate expectations we are able to derive a number of interesting conclusions a variance decomposition of unexpected exchange rate movements into various components reveals that interest rate news is relatively unimportant but that changes in perceptions about risk premia and more importantly revisions of expectations with regard to future exchange rate levels are crucial in explaining unexpected exchange rate movements

the balassa samuelson hypothesis in the developed and developing countries revisited abstract this paper aims at examining the balassa samuelson bs hypothesis in 20 developed and 20 developing countries respectively given the cross sectional dependence and structural breaks we develop a new panel cointegration technique which allows for multiple heterogeneous unknown breaks and non stationary factors the empirical results show that the bs hypothesis holds in the developed countries implying that higher productivity growth leads to a real appreciation but they are cointegrated up to a number of cross sectional unobserved stochastic trends as factors are non stationary however we find little evidence to support the bs hypothesis in the developing countries and a further research is needed for the reason

japan s negative risk premium in interest rates the liquidity trap and the fall in bank lending japan s interest rates have been compressed toward zero because of pressure coming through the foreign exchanges twenty years of current account surpluses have led to a huge buildup of claims mainly dollars on foreigners because of ongoing fluctuations in the yen dollar exchange rate japanese financial institutions will only willingly hold these dollar claims if the nominal yield on them is substantially higher than on yen assets in the 1990s to 2002 as us interest rates have come down portfolio equilibrium has been sustained only when nominal interest rates on yen assets have been forced toward zero one consequence is the now infamous liquidity trap for japanese monetary policy a second consequence is the erosion of the normal profit margins of japan s commercial banks leading to a slump in new bank credit and an inability to grow out of the overhang of old bad loans

productivity differentials the relative price of non tradables and real exchange rates abstract this paper reconciles the apparent contradiction between recent panel unit root tests of real exchange rates and the productivity differential model proposing an alternative view that explains the coexistence of such findings real exchange rates and the relative price of non tradables reflect the gradual adjustment of mean reverting and endogenously competing factors supply and demand shocks as well as traded goods arbitrage granger causality and variance decomposition results indicate substantial simultaneity and feedback effects between real exchange rates the relative price of non tradables and productivity differentials

real options theory in international business the last quarter century has witnessed substantial growth in applications of real options theory rot to international business ib research in this review we explicate the core rot concepts in the ib context and discuss the contributions of rot based research to three core ib issues timing and scale of market entry or exit entry mode and governance form and the role of multinational networks based on our review we propose a holistic rot view of the multinational enterprise that synthesizes the insights of existing studies finally to move the field forward we highlight key questions and challenges in current rot based work provide a more precise definition of exogenous and endogenous uncertainty suggest empirical designs to test unique rot predictions and explore areas where rot can be combined with other theoretical perspectives to better understand ib phenomena

sources of fluctuations in real and nominal exchange rates this paper attempts to distinguish empirically real versus nominal sources of fluctuations in real and nominal exchange rates the distinction is obtained by imposing the following restriction on the bivariate vector autoregression of real and nominal exchange rates over the current flexible rate period nominal shocks are required to have no permanent effect on the level of the real exchange rate given this identification scheme the author analyzes the dynamic effects and relative importance of real and nominal shocks with regards to exchange rates the findings indicate that real shocks dominate nominal shocks for both exchange rate series over short and long frequencies copyright 1992 by mit press

does the exchange rate follow a random walk a monte carlo study of four tests for a random walk abstract several authors have urged that real and nominal exchange rates follow a random walk conditions under which the exchange rate follows a random walk are reviewed in this paper many of these do not appear to hold therefore the empirical evidence presents a puzzle some evidence suggets the exchange rate follows a random walk while other evidence suggests the opposite should be true this paper attempts to reconcile the evidence it is argued that the tests for a random walk have low power monte carlo evidence on four tests for a random walk is presented that suppors this claim

on the growth of foreign affiliates multinational plant networks joint ventures and flexibility we take a flexibility perspective to analyse employment growth in a large sample of japanese manufacturing affiliates in nine asian countries during the years leading up to and into the asian financial crisis 1995 1999 we find that joint ventures are less flexible than wholly owned affiliates in responding to changing environmental conditions in the focal country and underperform in high growth environments multinational enterprises mnes use the flexibility created by their multinational plant network to adjust affiliate employment in response to labour cost changes in other countries in which they operate plants however no evidence was found that the presence of joint ventures in multinational plant networks reduces this network flexibility our findings suggest that more research is needed on the heterogeneous responses of mnes and their affiliates to changing economic environments

productivity bias hypothesis and the purchasing power parity a review article abstract productivity differentials among countries are said to be one of the major sources that contribute to the deviation of the purchasing power parity based exchange rate from the equilibrium rate hence the productivity bias hypothesis prior to last review article on the productivity bias hypothesis in 1976 almost all studies relied upon cross sectional regression analysis since then two groups of empirical studies have emerged while one group has employed time series data the other one has used panel data these two later groups have provided more support to the hypothesis than the earlier cross sectional studies this paper reviews and criticizes each group separately and provides tables that summarize main features of each study

hyteresis in import prices the beachhead effect this paper shows that temporary real exchange rate fluctuations can have persistent hysteretic effects on trade specifically when market entry costs are sunk sufficiently large exchange rate shocks alter domestic market structure and thereby induce hysteresis this simple result has strong implications for exchange rate theory t rade policy and estimation of trade equations empirical evidence su ggests that the recent dollar overvaluation induced hysteresis in u s import prices namely the aggregate pass through equation of exchange rates to import prices shifted in the 1980s the shift s nature and timing is broadly consistent with the hysteresis hypothesis copyright 1988 by american economic association

panel unit root tests of purchasing power parity for price indices abstract this paper adopts four panel unit root tests to evaluate ppp over the floating period for six different price indices results generally support ppp albeit the speeds of adjustment differ considerably between price indices and test procedures the degree of contemporaneous and serial correlation as well as heterogeneity of the series in the panel affect stationarity and the speed of mean reversion

the impact of immigrants on host country crime it is conventionally believed that immigration increases crime rates in the host country however empirical results are not in line with this crime concern we develop a model with endogenous skill upgrading and criminal choices to reconcile the inconsistency

do relative prices of non traded goods determine long run real exchange rates in this paper the long run assumptions of so called equilibrium models of real exchange rates are investigated the assumption of purchasing power parity for tradable goods common to this class of models implies that the real exchange rate is a function of the relative prices of nontraded goods in the two countries while purchasing power parity for tradable goods is not directly testable exploitation of wholesale and consumer prices allows for direct estimation of the reduced form cointegration tests are performed for twenty one bilateral relationships while much of the evidence is consistent with the predictions of equilibrium models results are far from conclusive

does anonymity matter in electronic limit order markets we develop a model in which limit order traders possess volatility information we show that in this case the size of the bid ask spread is informative about future volatility moreover if volatility information is in part private we establish that i the size of the bid ask spread and ii its informativeness about future volatility should change in the same direction when limit order traders identifiers stop being disclosed we test these predictions using data from the paris bourse as expected we find that the average quoted spread and its informativeness are significantly smaller when limit order traders identifiers are concealed these findings suggest that the limit order book is a channel for volatility information

an empirical inquiry into the nature of the forward exchange rate bias abstract this paper tests whether anticipated real exchange rate movements fully account for the systematic time varying discrepancies between forward and future spot exchange rates the data do not reject this hypothesis the results demonstrate that 1 real exchange rate changes are predictable 2 anticipated real exchange rate changes are reflected in the forward bias and 3 information available at the signing of the forward contract is useless in forecasting differences between forward and future spot prices beyond the information s ability to predict real exchange rate changes the results emphasize the importance of real exchange rates in international asset pricing

flexibility versus commitment mnes ownership strategy in china we investigate the following important questions in international business how do multinational enterprises mnes choose ownership strategies when facing strong uncertainty in foreign market entries how are the choices affected by industry contingencies following the key tenets of real options theory we propose that under a high level of market uncertainty mnes choose more flexible rather than more committed ownership strategies that allow adjustment of investment decisions in future we further suggest that using flexible strategies in response to uncertainty becomes less valuable for mnes when the industry they enter in the host country enjoys strong sales growth potential requires less irreversible investments and has intense competition empirically we analyze the ownership strategies ownership structure and equity share of over 5000 new foreign investments in manufacturing industries in china during 2000 2006 we find qualified support for our hypotheses and discuss the industry boundary conditions of adopting flexible ownership strategies in foreign market entries

real exchange rates ppp and the relative price of nontraded goods the purchasing power parity hypothesis ppp states that nominal exchange rates move with differences in relative prices between economies the theory has received considerable attention in the economic literature since cassell 6 and is the foundation of many long run theoretical hypotheses in international finance yet its empirical validity remains in question many tests of ppp focus on the stationarity of the real exchange rate the nominal exchange rate adjusted for changes in price levels between economies if domestic and foreign price levels and the nominal exchange rate are integrated then cointegration between these variables implies the existence of both a long run equilibrium relationship and ppp the residual the real exchange rate then follows a stationary process the paper uses the multivariate cointegration methodology of johansen 16 and johansen and juselius 17 18 to examine the source of real exchange rate nonstationarity is the nonstationarity due to shifts in the domestic and foreign price of nontradeables or productivity differentials between traded and nontraded sectors or is the nonstationarity a possible outcome of difficulties in intercountry comparisons of prices movements associated with construction of these price indices most research finds the real exchange rate follows a nonstationary process due to the presence of a unit root 8 12 1 9 19 27 however the existence of a variable trend in the real exchange rate does not imply the absence of a long run relationship between relative prices levels and nominal exchange rates for two reasons first a long run relationship between price levels and nominal exchange rates may exist but not the one for one relationship implicit in the calculation of real exchange rates due to measurement differences in the construction of price indices between economies second ppp violations may occur due to the presence of permanent productivity innovations which affect the relative price of nontradeables if these shocks are not represented by measurable variables a cointegrating relationship will not exist the paper constructs traded and nontraded gdp price indices and productivity rates for 14 oecd economies and tests 1 if the variable trend the nonstationary process in the real exchange rate is due to permanent innovations in relative price of domestic and foreign nontradeables 2 if long run ppp violations are due to permanent movements in the relative price of nontradeables 3 if the nonstationarity in the real exchange rate is due to permanent innovations in domestic and foreign productivity differentials between the traded and nontraded sectors 4 if the variable trend in the relative price of nontradeables is due to permanent innovations in productivity between sectors lastly the paper constructs a cointegrating error correction model

real exchange rates under the gold standard purchasing power parity is one of the most important equilibrium conditions in international macroeconomics empirically it is also one of the most hotly contested numerous recent studies for example have sought to determine the validity of purchasing power parity using data from the post bretton woods float and have reached different conclusions we assert that most such studies are flawed for two reasons first the post 1973 data contain by definition only a very limited amount of the low frequency information relevant for examination of long run parity second the dynamic econometric techniques used to model deviations from parity are typically quite crude with respect to admissible low frequency dynamics both deficiencies are rectified in the present paper with dramatic results we construct a new data set of 16 real exchange rates covering more than a century of the classic gold standard period and we study deviations from parity using long memory models that allow for subtle forms of mean

multi country evidence on the behavior of purchasing power parity under the current float abstract using panel data for the united states and 22 other oecd countries for the current float this paper presents evidence that despite substantial short term perturbations purchasing power parity actually performed much better than commonly believed average rates of growth of real exchange rates over long horizons bear little relationship either to average rates of growth of nominal exchange rates or to average inflation differentials thus implying a close to one to one relation between average rates of growth of nominal exchange rates and average inflation differentials panel data variants of standard unit root tests suggest that the real exchange rates of these countries can be characterized as mean reverting

the overvaluation of renminbi undervaluation we evaluate whether the renminbi rmb is misaligned relying upon conventional statistical methods of inference a framework built around the relationship between relative price and relative output levels is used we find that once sampling uncertainty and serial correlation are accounted for there is little statistical evidence that the rmb is undervalued even though the point estimates usually indicate economically significant misalignment the result is robust to various choices of country samples and sample periods as well as to the inclusion of control variables

immigrants in the american labor market quality assimilation and distributional effects this paper provides evidence on immigrants performance and impact in the u s labor market we document that new immigrants do bring fewer marketable skills to the united states than did earlier cohorts and that changes in the source countries of recent immigrants account for all of this decline in immigrant quality we find no important evidence that quality has declined within immigrant ethnic groups we also show that immigrants assimilate rapidly in the u s market 10 years of u s experience offsets most of the earnings disadvantage of new immigrants and that assimilation is more rapid for groups who start with lower initial wages excerpt

market maker quotation behavior and pretrade transparency we examine the impact of differing levels of pretrade transparency on the quotation behavior of nasdaq market makers we find that market makers are more likely to quote on odd ticks and to actively narrow the spread when they can do so anonymously by posting limit orders on electronic communication networks ecns from a public policy perspective our findings suggest that making the level of pretrade transparency on nasdaq more opaque by allowing anonymous quotes could improve price competition and narrow spreads further

the determination of the real exchange rate the productivity approach abstract this paper explains deviations of exchange rates from purchasing power parity with the differences between countries of the relative growth rates of labor productivity between traded and nontraded sectors two cases are considered germany and japan versus their respective major trading partners the results show that the time series methodology yields a more favorable confirmation of the productivity differential model than the cross section regressions in the literature

impact of sourcing flexibility on the outsourcing of services under demand uncertainty abstract this paper investigates the relationship between market conditions and the value and use of sourcing flexibility for service processes we develop and analyze a series of models and we derive expressions for the optimal switching decision the value of the option to outsource the value of the option to backsource and the probability and timing of switches between the alternative sources one contribution is the models and associated derivations which are largely new to the literature and may serve as a tool to support service sourcing plans and decisions the second contribution is a series of results with managerial implications 1 the probability of outsourcing is generally increasing in volatility for high skill process and decreasing in volatility for low skill processes earlier work has found that the hysteresis band is increasing in volatility which is interpreted as an indicator of increasing organizational inertia we also find that the hysteresis band is increasing in volatility but interestingly for the case of high skill processes organizational inertia tends to be decreasing in volatility 2 the option to backsource is generally more valuable for high skill processes than for low skill processes this result suggests that investments to make it easier to backsource should have a higher priority for high skill processes 3 the value of the option to backsource a high skill service process can be decreasing in volatility the result suggests that a rather nuanced consideration of volatility is in order when considering investments in the flexibility to backsource a high skill process

determinants of the foreign equity share of international joint ventures abstract due to host government restrictions a multinational corporation is required to form a joint venture with a local partner rather than set up a wholly owned subsidiary both parties to the joint venture simultaneously decide their respective equity shares and the time to exercise an irreversible investment project via nash bargaining since the multinational corporation has a cost advantage over its local partner it will therefore hold a share larger than its relative bargaining power however if its cost advantage is less significant uncertainty is greater or the cost of exercising the investment option is increasing over time at a lower rate the multinational firm will hold a smaller share and will also be more hesitant as regards exercising the investment option

exchange rates and the choice of ownership structure of production facilities the aim of this research is to study the effects of real exchange rates on the long term ownership strategies of production facilities of firms entering foreign markets among the strategies considered are exporting exp joint ventures with local partners jv and wholly owned production facilities wos in the foreign country our research takes a first step in modeling the influence of exchange rates on the choice and dynamic adjustment of such strategies the insights obtained from our modeling analysis are then translated into testable hypotheses and empirically verified with the use of firm level data from u s multinational corporations both at the firm and a more aggregate level an insightful result of our model is the identification of a hysteresis phenomenon that characterizes switching behavior between strategies in the presence of switchover cost the magnitude of the hysteresis band which is a measure of the inertia associated with keeping the current ownership structure is affected by a multiplicity of factors such as exchange rate volatility and market power of the entering firm analytical and numerical results on the effects of such factors on the hysteresis band are provided the four testable hypotheses generated from our modeling analysis are rigorously tested with the use of a multinomial logit model on data obtained from the harvard multinational enterprise database and a data set maintained by the bureau of economic analysis the u s department of commerce the empirical results strongly support our insights that relatively depreciated real exchange rates i e weak home currency favor a the jv over the wos and b exp mode over the wos or jv finally we summarize our results into useful guidelines for global production managers

on the deviations from purchasing power parity the case of the ringgit effective exchange rate the paper investigates the extent to which the ringgit exchange rate converges on its purchasing power parity level in the long run using the cointegration and variance ratio tests the results indicate that shifts in the real exchange rate are dominated by permanent stochastic shocks which prevent it from reverting to its ppp base level further analysis indicates that low frequency movements in the relative price of tradable goods and the external terms of trade cannot explain the long run swing in the real exchange rate

nontradable goods prices and per caita income an application to regional korean data pooled time series cross sectional regional data for korea over the period 1985 1991 are used to investigate points which emerged from the united nations international comparison project the results based on a regional analysis are opposite to those of the icp the prices of services do not increase more rapidly in fast growing than in slow growing regions this regional analysis provides constradictory evidence to the widely recognized stylized fact that the prices of nontradables increase with real per capital income by a larger margin than the prices of tradables increase

government expenditure real exchange rate and the decline of the manufacturing sector some empirical evidence abstract i show that the increase in government expenditure in european countries during the 1970s raise the relative price of non traded goods this relative price movement may explain why the share of manufacturing in private sector value added declined in those countries

optimal operating policies in the presence of exchange rate variability we study the structure of the optimal policies for a firm operating plants in different countries the relative costs of production between the plants are assumed to vary over time due to economic and political factors such as exchange rates inflation taxes and tariffs based on the costs the firm can alter the quantity produced in each plant we determine the structure of the optimal policies for deciding when and by how much to alter the production quantities when the switch over costs are linear or step functions regardless of whether the variable production costs are concave or piece wise linear convex and regardless of whether the firm is supplying one or more markets the optimal policy is always a barrier policy the optimal barriers can be determined by using linear programming techniques and the optimal costs can be computed by solving a system of linear equations when the number of optimal barriers is two the optimal expected costs and the condition that determines the optimal barriers are explicitly derived

the purchasing power parity debate originally propounded by the 16th century scholars of the university of salamanca the concept of purchasing power parity ppp was revived in the interwar period in the context of the debate concerning the appropriate level at which to re establish international exchange rate parities broadly accepted as a long run equilibrium condition in the post war period it first was advocated as a short run equilibrium by many international economists in the first few years following the breakdown of the bretton woods system in the early 1970s and then increasingly came under attack on both theoretical and empirical grounds from the late 1970s to the mid 1990s accordingly over the last three decades a large literature has built up that examines how much the data deviated from theory and the fruits of this research have provided a deeper understanding of how well ppp applies in both the short run and the long run since the mid 1990s larger datasets and nonlinear econometric methods in particular have improved estimation as deviations narrowed between real exchange rates and ppp so did the gap narrow between theory and data and some degree of confidence in long run ppp began to emerge again in this respect the idea of long run ppp now enjoys perhaps its strongest support in more than 30 years a distinct reversion in economic thought

real options and foreign affiliate divestments a portfolio perspective this paper develops a real options portfolio perspective on foreign affiliate divestments affiliates are less likely to be divested in response to adverse environmental change if they represent growth or switch option value to the multinational firm under conditions of macroeconomic uncertainty however the affiliate is partially redundant to the option value of the multinational firm s affiliate portfolio if the affiliate shares the manufacturing platform role in the host country with other affiliates or if macroeconomic conditions of the host country are highly correlated with those of other countries in which the multinational firm operates affiliates we find strong support for these arguments in tests on a comprehensive sample of 1078 asian manufacturing affiliates of japanese electronics multinationals

trading activity dealer concentration and foreign exchange market quality abstract we study the relation between foreign exchange market quality and both trading activity and dealer concentration by considering two currency pairs with significant differences along both dimensions the euro us dollar and canadian dollar us dollar a variance ratio test reveals over reaction in currency prices but that this is smallest when trading activity is high and dealer concentration at its peak a garch model shows that over reaction declines as trading activity and dealer concentration increase with the results being stronger for the euro our results confirm that trading activity is an important determinant of market quality but also point to a significant role for dealer concentration

testing purchasing power parity under the null hypothesis of co integration this paper analyzes monthly data on the exchange rates and price indices of the eleven major industrial countries over the modern period of floating exchange rates it presents tests that are based upon the null hypothesis of cointegration the paper finds evidence that most country pairs not involving north american currencies have exchange rates and price indices that are cointegrated it estimates the error correction representation for the series that are cointegrated and it shows that the dynamic adjustment of the relationship between exchange rates and prices is accomplished almost entirely in the market for foreign exchange copyright 1991 by royal economic society

a long run view of the european monetary system abstract this papaer analyzes the exchange rates and consumer price indices of six countries participating in the european monetary system ems during the entire period of floating exchange rates the analysis shows that most of these real exchange rates have unit roots even when one allows for the possibility of a structural break at the time of the advent of the ems further proces and exchange rates are not co integrated during the ems period the data suggest that the 12 realignments of the ems have not served fully too offset the member countries inflation differentials

the submission of limit orders or market orders the role of timing and information in the reuters d2000 2 system abstract recent work in the market microstructure literature suggests that the speed with which orders arrive in the market impacts traders order submission decisions in this study we use an asymmetric autoregressive conditional duration acd model to empirically investigate the influence on the submission of limit and market orders of changes in the time between the past submissions of different types of orders changes in the slope of the limit order book and changes in price uncertainty we find that the expected time between the arrivals of successive orders in the foreign exchange market depends on the previous type of order submitted and the slope on both sides of the order book price uncertainty volatility plays a secondary role after accounting for the impact of changes in the slope of the order book lastly we find that there are fundamental changes in the level of information contained in the submission of orders at the opening and closing of markets

valuing operational flexibility under exchange rate risk in this paper we develop a stochastic dynamic programming formulation for the valuation of global manufacturing strategy options with switching costs overall we adopt a hierarchical approach first exchange rates are modeled as stochastic diffusion processes that exhibit intercountry correlation second the firm s global manufacturing strategy determines options for alternative product designs as well as supply chain network designs product options introduce international supply flexibility supply chain network options determine the firm s manufacturing flexibility through production capacity and supply chain network linkages third switching costs determine the cost of operational hedging i e the costs associated with reducing downside risks overall the firm maximizes its expected discounted global after tax value through the exercise of product and supply chain network options and or through exploitation of operational flexibility contingent on exchange rate realizations in this environment the firm must trade off fixed operating costs switching costs and the economic benefits derived from exploiting differentials in factor costs and corporate tax rates a multinomial approximation of correlated exchange rate processes is proposed that leads to a consistent and tractable lattice model for this compound option valuation problem we then demonstrate how the global manufacturing strategy planning model framework can be utilized to analyze financial and operational hedging strategies

modes of foreign entry a transaction cost analysis and propositions a frontier issue in international marketing is the appropriate choice of entry mode in foreign markets the objective of this paper is to offer a transaction cost framework for investigating the entry mode decision this framework provides 1 a theoretical basis for systematically interrelating the literature into propositions 2 propositions about interactions which resolve the apparently contradictory arguments advanced to date specifically the paper illustrates the feasibility of clustering 17 entry modes into the degree of control the mode provides the entrant proposes that the most appropriate i e most efficient entry mode is a function of the tradeoff between control and the cost of resource commitment advances testable propositions delimiting the circumstances under which each mode maximizes long term efficiency