the role of corporate sustainability performance for economic performance a firm level analysis of moderation effects abstract this paper analyses the link between sustainability management and economic performance its main research question concerns the association of social responsibility and environmental management with economic performance determinants of the latter and possible moderation effects based on data collected from financial databases and kinder lydenberg domini for the period 1992 to 2003 the paper analyses the link of corporate sustainability performance with economic performance using panel estimation techniques the analysis shows that advertising intensity moderates the association of corporate sustainability performance and economic performance as measured by tobin s q for research and development efforts relative to firm size no moderating role on the link between corporate sustainability and economic performance is identified a sensitivity analysis using separate measures for social and environmental performance reveals that the latter only has a direct effect and the former only a fully moderated effect on economic performance policy and management implications of these findings are discussed

do stock investors value corporate sustainability evidence from an event study this paper analyzes the impacts of index inclusions and exclusions on corporate sustainable firms by studying a sample of us stocks that are added to or deleted from the dow jones sustainability world index over the period 2002 2008 the impacts are measured in terms of stock return risk and liquidity we cannot find any strong evidence that announcement per se has any significant impact on stock return and risk however on the day of change index inclusion exclusion stocks experience a significant but temporary increase decrease in stock return liquidity deteriorates after the announcement day and bounces back significantly near the day of change systematic risk shows little change after announce ments but idiosyncratic risk is higher after announcements the overall results support harris and eitan s the journal of finance41 4 815 829 1986 price pressure hypothesis which posits that event announcement does not carry information and any shift in demand and hence the corresponding price change and liquidity change is temporary

a new approach to measuring financial contagion this article proposes a new approach to evaluate contagion in financial markets our measure of contagion captures the coincidence of extreme return shocks across countries within a region and across regions we characterize the extent of contagion its economic significance and its determinants using a multinomial logistic regression model applying our approach to daily returns of emerging markets during the 1990s we find that contagion is predictable and depends on regional interest rates exchange rate changes and conditional stock return volatility evidence that contagion is stronger for extreme negative returns than for extreme positive returns is mixed

predicting u s business cycle regimes this article examines the use of logistic classification methods for the identification and prediction of postwar u s business cycle expansion and contraction regimes as defined by the national bureau of economic research nber reference turning point dates we present a coherent theoretical framework for this task using measures of discriminatory information the analysis encompasses model selection parameter estimation and classification decision rules we examine the performance of logistic procedures in reproducing the nber regime classifications and in predicting one and three months ahead using leading indicator variables our models are shown to provide substantially more accurate business cycle regime predictions than markov switching specifications

what happens during recessions crunches and busts we provide a comprehensive empirical characterization of the linkages between key macroeconomic and financial variables around business and financial cycles for 21 oecd countries over the period 1960 2007 in particular we analyse the implications of 122 recessions 113 28 credit contraction crunch episodes 114 28 episodes of house price declines busts 245 61 episodes of equity price declines busts and their various overlaps in these countries over the sample period our results indicate that the interactions between macroeconomic and financial variables can play a major role in determining the severity and duration of a recession specifically we find evidence that recessions associated with credit crunches and house price busts tend to be deeper and longer than other recessions stijn claessens m ayhan kose and marco e terrones

stock market s reaction to disclosure of environmental violations evidence from china the stock market s reaction to information disclosure of environmental violation events eves is investigated multi dimensionally for chinese listed companies including variables such as pollution types information disclosure sources information disclosure levels modernization levels of the region where the company locates ultimate ownership of the company and ownership held by the largest shareholder using the method of event study daily abnormal return ar and accumulative abnormal return car are calculated under different event window for examining the extent to which the stock market responds to the eves furthermore statistical significance of the difference in stock market reaction is compared between event firms with different characteristics the relationship between car and its impact factors is examined by multivariate analysis the findings reveal that the average reduction in market value is estimated to be much lower than the estimated changes in market value for similar events in other countries demonstrating that the negative environmental events of chinese listed companies currently have weak impact on the stock market

shareholder value stakeholder management and social issues what s the bottom line we test the relationship between shareholder value stakeholder management and social issue participation building better relations with primary stakeholders like employees customers suppliers and communities could lead to increased shareholder wealth by helping firms develop intangible valuable assets which can be sources of competitive advantage on the other hand using corporate resources for social issues not related to primary stakeholders may not create value for shareholders we test these propositions with data from s p 500 firms and find evidence that stakeholder management leads to improved shareholder value while social issue participation is negatively associated with shareholder value copyright 2001 john wiley sons ltd

asymmetric phase shifts in u s industrial production cycles abstract we identify cyclical turning points for 74 u s manufacturing industries and uncover new empirical regularities a industries tend to comove between expansion and contraction phases over the business cycle b clusters of industry turning points are highly asymmetric between peaks and troughs troughs are much more concentrated and sharper than peaks c the temporal pattern of phase shifts across industries supports the spillovers through input output linkages and d macroeconomic shocks such as unanticipated changes in monetary policy government spending oil prices and financial conditions are significant drivers of industrial phase shifts

a resource based perspective on corporate environmental performance and profitability drawing on the resource based view of the firm we posited that environmental performance and economic performance are positively linked and that industry growth moderates the relationship with the returns to environmental performance higher in high growth industries we tested these hypotheses with an analysis of 243 finns over two years using independently developed environmental ratings results indicate that it pays to be green and that this relationship strengthens with industry growth we conclude by highlighting the study s academic and managerial implications making special reference to the social issues in management literature

make buy or ally a transaction cost theory meta analysis since the publication of williamson s markets and hierarchies many empirical articles have investigated the tenets of transaction cost theory using meta analytic techniques we quantitatively syn

on measuring synchronization of bulls and bears the case of east asia abstract this paper implements estimation and testing procedures for comovements of stock market cycles or phases in asia we extend the harding and pagan harding d pagan a p 2006 synchronization of cycles journal of econometrics 132 1 59 79 test for strong multivariate nonsynchronization smns between business cycles to a test that allows for an imperfect degree of multivariate synchronization between stock market cycles moreover we propose a test for endogenously determining structural change in the bivariate and multivariate synchronization indices upon applying the technique to five asian stock markets we find a significant increase in the cross country comovements of asian bullish and bearish periods in 1997 a power study of the stability test suggests that the detected increase in comovement is more of a sudden nature i e contagion or asian flu instead of gradual i e financial integration it is furthermore argued that stock market cycles and their propensity toward increased synchronization contain useful information for both investors policy makers and financial regulators

interconnections between eurozone and us booms and busts using a bayesian panel markov switching var model summary the proposed panel markov switching var model accommodates changes in low and high data frequencies and incorporates endogenous time varying transition matrices of country specific markov chains allowing for interconnections an efficient multi move sampling algorithm draws time varying markov switching chains using industrial production growth and credit spread data several important data features are obtained three regimes appear with slow growth becoming persistent in the eurozone turning point analysis indicates the usa leading the eurozone cycle amplification effects influence recession probabilities for eurozone countries a credit shock results in temporary negative industrial production growth in germany spain and the usa core and peripheral countries exist in the eurozone copyright 2016 john wiley sons ltd

signaling sustainability leadership empirical evidence of the value of djsi membership we explore the relationship between corporate sustainability reputation and firm value by asking whether signaling sustainability leadership through membership on a recognized sustainability index is value generating increasingly stakeholders are demanding that firms demonstrate their commitment to sustainability one signal that companies can send to stakeholders to indicate that they are sustainability leaders is membership on a recognized best in class sustainability index this article explores both the short term and the intermediary impact on north american firms of being included or removed from the dow jones sustainability world index djsi our results provide evidence that being added to the djsi results in a sustained increase in a firm s share price suggesting that the benefits of being included on the djsi outweigh the costs associated with applying this article also notes a temporary decrease in the value of firms for the first 10 days after their removal from the djsi however this effect is eliminated within the next ten trading days

dissecting the cycle a methodological investigation following burns and mitchell we define the cycle as a pattern in the level of aggregate economic activity an algorithm to locate turning points is developed as is a new measure of pro cyclicality a link between turning points and the moments of the series is established thereby providing the statistical foundation that burns and mitchell s work lacked using these tools we are able to dissect cycles in terms of the contributions made by trend growth volatility serial correlation and non linear effects we dissect several models and find little evidence that certain non linear effects are important to the nature of business cycles

are economic time series asymmetric over the business cycle it has long been argued that major cyclical variables such as the unemployment rate display an asymmetric behavior over various phases of the business cycle the paper provides a statistical test for this hypothesis using the framework of finite state markov processes i implement a test to see if the behavior of the unemployment rate is characterized by sudden jumps and slower drops it is argued that the framework provided in the paper can also be used to test other sample path properties of economic time series

import export elasticities and exchange rate dynamics abstract this paper combines the older elasticities approach with the quantity theory of money it is shown that the sole key factor in determining whether the exchange rate overshoots or undershoots its equilibrium value is the magnitude of import export elasticities

toxics release information a policy tool for environmental protection abstract this study examines investor reactions to the repeated public disclosure of environmental information about firms in the chemical industry and the effectiveness of this information as a decentralized mechanism for deterring their pollution by allowing investors to benchmark the performance of firms repeated provision of the toxics release inventory led firms to incur statistically significant negative stock market returns during the one day period following the disclosure of that information in the years 1990 1994 these losses had a significant negative impact on subsequent on site toxic releases and a significant positive impact on wastes transferred off site but their impact on total toxic wastes generated by these firms is negligible

predicting u s recessions with dynamic binary response models abstract we develop dynamic binary probit models and apply them for predicting u s recessions using the interest rate spread as the driving predictor the new models use lags of the binary response a recession dummy to forecast its future values and allow for the potential forecast power of lags of the underlying conditional probability we show how multiperiod ahead forecasts are computed iteratively using the same one period ahead model iterated forecasts that apply specific lags supported by statistical model selection procedures turn out to be more accurate than previously used direct forecasts based on horizon specific model specifications

global standards and ethical stock indexes the case of the dow jones sustainability stoxx index the increased scrutiny of investors regarding the non financial aspects of corporate performance has placed portfolio managers in the position of having to weigh the benefits of holding the market against the cost of having positions in companies that are subsequently found to have questionable business practices the availability of stock indexes based on sustainability screening makes increasingly viable for institutional investors the transition to a portfolio based on a socially responsible investment sri benchmark at relatively low cost the increasing share of socially responsible investments may play a role in providing incentives towards a continuous upgrading of sustainability standards to the extent that their performance is not systematically inferior to that of the other funds this article examines whether these incentives have been so far detectable with particular reference to the dow jones sustainability stoxx index djssi that focuses on the european corporations with the highest csr scores among those included in the dow jones stoxx 600 index the aim of the article is twofold first we analyse the performance of the djssi over the period 2001 2006 compared to that of the surrogate complementary index sci a new benchmark that includes only the components of the dj stoxx 600 that do not belong to the ethical index to evaluate more correctly the size of possible divergent performances second we perform an event study on the same data set to analyse whether the stock market evaluation reacts to the inclusion deletion in the djssi in both cases the results suggest that the evaluation of the csr performance of a firm is a significant criterion for asset allocation activities

the impact of environmental management on firm performance environmental management has the potential to play a pivotal role in the financial performance of the firm many individuals suggest that profitability is hurt by the higher production costs of environmental management initiatives while others cite anecdotal evidence of increased profitability a theoretical model is proposed that links strong environmental management to improved perceived future financial performance as measured by stock market performance the linkage to firm performance is tested empirically using financial event methodology and archival data of firm level environmental and financial performance significant positive returns were measured for strong environmental management as indicated by environmental performance awards and significant negative returns were measured for weak environmental management as indicated by environmental crises the implicit financial market valuation of these events also was estimated cross sectional analysis of the environmental award events revealed differences for first time awards and between industries first time award announcements were associated with greater increases in market valuation although smaller increases were observed for firms in environmentally dirty industries possibly indicative of market skepticism this linkage between environmental management and financial performance can be used by both researchers and practitioners as one measure of the benefits experienced by industry leaders and as one criterion against which to measure investment alternatives

the flexible exchange basket a macroeconomic analysis abstract this paper constructs and analyzes a multi country stochastic equilibrium framework suitable for analyzing the behavior of an economy which pursues a flexible exchange basket policy the framework is general enough to accommodate the special cases of a multilateral floating exchange rates and b rigid basket regimes an important issue that is addressed in the present framework involves the composition of the optimal flexible basket versus that of the corresponding rigid basket such an investigation is carried out for various patterns of multilateral trade for various types of structural disturbances and for alternative optimality criteria

pollution and corporate valuation evidence from china environmental pollution brings severe challenges in the context of a high growing economy of china pollution events bring serious ecological cost to the environment direct costs from sanction an

towards a loanable funds amended liquidity preference theory of the exchange rate and interest rate abstract the objective is to develop a unified theory of the exchange rate and interest rate using a loanable funds amended liquidity preference approach in order to provide a new perspective on many puzzling facts associated with the post bretton woods international economy it is shown that i a monetary expansion can initially raise the interest rate but depreciate the home currency ii real demand shocks can cause interest rate and exchange rate overshooting iii an infinite interest elasticity for capital flows cannot cause exchange rate overshooting if an extended marshall lerner condition holds iv the home currency can appreciate when the current account is negative if the extended marshall lerner condition is not satisfied and v changes in the disequilibrium regime will cause instability in the estimates of reduced form coefficients

a simple framework for analysing bull and bear markets bull and bear markets are a common way of describing cycles in equity prices to fully describe such cycles one would need to know the data generating process dgp for equity prices we begin with a definition of bull and bear markets and use an algorithm based on it to sort a given time series of equity prices into periods that can be designated as bull and bear markets the rule to do this is then studied analytically and it is shown that bull and bear market characteristics depend upon the dgp for capital gains by simulation methods we examine a number of dgps that are known to fit the data quite well random walks garch models and models with duration dependence we find that a pure random walk provides as good an explanation of bull and bear markets as the more complex statistical models in the final section of the paper we look at some asset pricing models that appear in the literature from the viewpoint of their success in producing bull and bear markets which resemble those in the data copyright 2002 john wiley sons ltd

bank rate policy under the interwar gold standard a dynamic probit model the classical gold standard occupies an almost mystical position in the literature of international finance in popular accounts the gold standard is portrayed as a remarkably durable and efficient mechanism for achieving price and exchange rate stability and for relieving balance of payments pressures the system s resilience is attributed to the willingness of nationa monetary authorities to refrain from impeding the international adjustment process when central banks intervened in financial markets it is said they did so mechanically obeying rules of the game which dictated that they reinforce the impact on domestic money and credit of changing balance of payments conditions succeeding generations of economists and historians have sought to qualify this popular view the recent contributions of bordo i98i and cooper i982 make a critical assessment of extravagant claims concerning price and exchange rate stability under the classical gold standard other authors have extended the research of bloomfield i 959 ford i962 and triffin i964 who emphasised the special conditions that permitted the classical gold standard s smooth operation and cast doubt on the tendency of national monetary authorities to adhere faithfully to rules of the game all too often scant mention is made of the interwar gold standard for it is not evident how interwar experience fits into either view certain facts are clear it is clear that the interwar standard was far from durable britain s resumption of gold payments in i925 usually is taken to mark the gold standard s resurrection just as her devaluation a mere 6 years later is taken as its demise in the interim many of the major participants suffered serious balance of payments pressures that threatened to render their exchange rates indefensible the system was anything but conducive to stability it precluded neither price nor income fluctuations as the great depression dramatically illustrated numerous explanations have been advanced for the interwar gold standard s

the synchronization of credit cycles abstract this paper proposes a simple econometric procedure to test for the synchronization of credit cycles using a century of data for 14 advanced economies we find that credit cycle synchronization dropped in the early 1920s from initially relatively high levels between the 1920s and the 1970s synchronization was overall low and concentrated within five predominantly regional clusters however synchronization has significantly increased in the post bretton woods era and has become less associated with geographic proximity australia denmark france italy japan norway spain switzerland the uk and the us form a single major credit cycle cluster since the 1970s a smaller cluster is formed by canada the netherlands and sweden while the german credit cycle follows a distinct path using logistic regressions we find that the synchronization of credit and business cycles go hand in hand our findings are especially relevant for the international coordination of macroprudential policy as well as to spur and inform further analysis on credit cycle dynamics

market reactions to corporate environmental performance related events a meta analytic consolidation of the empirical evidence research on the relationship between corporate environmental performance cep and corporate financial performance cfp has consistently grown and is gaining widespread attention given the vast body of cep cfp studies recently scholars have begun to take stock of the cumulative results however no study so far has meta analyzed the findings yielded by event studies assessing the stock market reactions to corporate environmental performance related events cep related events this paper sets out to close this gap by synthesizing previous empirical results regarding the stock market impact of positive and negative cep related events results indicate a positive relationship across studies in terms of positive market reactions to positive events and negative reactions to negative events furthermore the findings show that the market reactions are stronger for negative events than for positive events i e asymmetry in the stock market reaction finally this study examines whether methodological artifacts i e differences in the study designs may explain the differences in the findings of the analyzed event studies

business cycle durations and postwar stabilization of the u s economy average postwar expansions are twice as long as prewar expansions and contractions are one half as long this paper investigates three possible explanations the first explanation is that shocks to the economy have been smaller in the postwar period the second explanation is that the composition of output has shifted from very cyclical sectors to less cyclical sectors the third explanation is that the apparent stabilization is largely spurious and is caused by differences in the way that prewar and postwar business cycle reference dates were chosen by the national bureau of economic research the evidence presented in this paper favors this third explanation copyright 1994 by american economic association

event studies in management research theoretical and empirical issues we examined the use of event studies in management research and found that there was inadequate attention paid to theoretical and research design issues this lack of attention may lead to false in

exchange market mayhem the antecedents and aftermath of speculative attacks exchange market mayhem the antecedents and aftermath of speculative attacks this paper evaluates the causes and consequences of episodes of turbulence in foreign exchange markets using data from 1959 through 1993 for twenty oecd countries we consider the antecedents and aftermath of devaluations and revaluations flotations fixings and speculative attacks which may not be successful we find that realignments of fixed exchange rates are alike devaluations are preceded by political instability budget and current account deficits and fast growth of money and prices revaluations are mirror images of devaluations speculative attacks resemble devaluations but money growth and inflation are more endemic and there is no last minute attempt to tighten monetary policy in contrast few consistent correlations link regime transitions like flotations or fixings to macroeconomic or political variables transitions between exchange rate regimes are largely idiosyncratic and are neither consistently provoked ex ante by systematic imbalances nor typically justified ex post by subsequent changes in policy we conclude that there are no clear early warning signals of many speculative attacks and no easy solutions for policy makers barry eichengreen andrew k rose and charles wyplosz

the reputational penalties for environmental violations empirical evidence abstract this paper examines the sizes of the fines damage awards remediation costs and market value losses imposed on companies that violate environmental regulations firms that violate environmental laws suffer statistically significant losses in the market value of firm equity the losses however are of similar magnitudes to the legal penalties imposed and in the cross section the market value loss is related to the size of the legal penalty thus environmental violations are disciplined largely through legal and regulatory penalties not through reputational penalties

beyond does it pay to be green a meta analysis of moderators of the cep cfp relationship review of extant research on the corporate environmental performance cep and corporate financial performance cfp link generally demonstrates a positive relationship however some arguments and empirical results have demonstrated otherwise as a result researchers have called for a contingency approach to this research stream which moves beyond the basic question does it pay to be green and instead asks when does it pay to be green in answering this call we provide a meta analytic review of cep cfp literature in which we identify potential moderators to the cep cfp relationship including environmental performance type e g reactive vs proactive performance firm characteristics e g large vs small firms and methodological issues e g self report measures by analyzing these contingencies this study attempts to provide a basis on which to draw conclusions regarding some inconsistencies and debates in the cep cfp research some of the results of the moderator analysis suggest that small firms benefit from environmental performance as much or more than large firms us firms seem to benefit more than international counterparts and environmental performance seems to have the strongest influence on market measures of financial performance

booms and slumps in world commodity prices abstract this paper examines the duration and magnitude of cycles in world commodity prices cycles are a dominant feature of commodity prices and dealing with the economic consequences of booms and slumps in prices continues to be one of the most challenging issues facing policymakers in commodity exporting developing countries we find that there is an asymmetry in commodity price cycles as price slumps last longer than price booms how far prices fall in a slump is found to be slightly larger than how far they tend to rebound in a subsequent boom in addition for most commodities the probability of an end to a slump boom in prices is independent of the time already spent in the slump boom

an econometric analysis of some models for constructed binary time series macroeconometric and financial researchers often use binary data constructed in a way that creates serial dependence we show that this dependence can be allowed for if the binary states are treated as markov processes in addition the methods of construction ensure that certain sequences are never observed in the constructed data together these features make it difficult to utilize static and dynamic probit models we develop modeling methods that respect the markov process nature of constructed binary data and explicitly deals with censoring constraints an application is provided that investigates the relation between the business cycle and the yield spread